Presentation type:
HS – Hydrological Sciences

EGU25-5863 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6 | Highlight | Arne Richter Awards for Outstanding ECS Lecture

Long Short-Term Memory networks in hydrology: From free-time project to Google’s operational flood forecasting model 

Frederik Kratzert

Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) have been around since the early 90’s but only in the last few years have LSTMs gained significant popularity in the hydrological sciences. Related publication counts have grown exponentially, and LSTMs power some of the largest-scale operational flood forecasting systems.

In this presentation, I'll look back at my relatively short career as a student and researcher at the intersection of hydrology and machine learning. I don't claim to have introduced LSTMs to hydrology, but I'll share my own experience helping to develop this modeling approach into what it is today. We will look at what I saw in this neural network architecture, and why I thought it was well suited for hydrologic applications.

The tale goes as follows: Once upon a time, in a land (not so) far far away, a (not so young) master student of environmental engineering was teaching himself the dark arts of machine learning (ML). While studying ML for automated fish detection, he stumbled upon the LSTM architecture. Having just concluded a course on the design of conceptual hydrological models, he noticed the underlying similarity between the LSTM and these established approaches — and more generally, the conceptual approach for modeling the water cycle. With one of his dearest colleagues and friends, he started to work night and day (actually more nights than days) to see if the LSTM is indeed suitable for hydrology. From initial attempts at emulating the ABC and HBV models, to first real-world experiments in individual catchments, the LSTM was showing great potential. But it was not until he discovered the CAMELS dataset and started experimenting with large-sample hydrology that he fully understood the potential of LSTMs for applications in hydrology. Equipped with nothing more than his first GPU, he embarked on a quest to explore the wondrous lands of academia. Countless nights were spent on the computer, forging transatlantic friendships, conducting experiments and writing publications. Eventually, he ascended to the ranks of PhDs by defending his research against Reviewer #2 and the high council of the PhD committee. Fast forward in time, today, LSTMs are widely used and among others, power Google’s current operational, global-scale flood forecasting model. And thus, the now (not so) old research scientist lived happily ever after with his wife and his children, and continues, to this day, to do much the same as he had in those earlier years.

If there is one thing that I would like for you to take away from this talk, it is that I hope my presentation will motivate young scientists to stay curious, to follow their own ideas, to not get demotivated by initial pushback and to not be afraid of reaching out to more senior researchers. I want to advocate strongly the importance of open science, of reproducibility, of collaborations, of benchmarking and of open data sharing to advance science.

How to cite: Kratzert, F.: Long Short-Term Memory networks in hydrology: From free-time project to Google’s operational flood forecasting model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5863, 2025.

Darcy’s experiments for the public fountains in Dijon in the 1850s aimed at estimating a single parameter value, namely the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat). Lumped hydrological models that are nowadays used to simulate streamflow at the catchment scale use at least a handful of model parameters. These parameters can not be measured in the field and are typically poorly defined. Therefore, despite all our efforts, catchment hydrological modelling still faces equifinality issues that can not be solved by the dramatically increased computational opportunities since Darcy’s work. In addition to the increased computational power, data availability for hydrological modelling has dramatically improved as well. Especially in the last decade, the emergence of large-sample datasets for various regions around the globe has enable modelling studies using data from hundreds of catchments. This has helped to ensure more generally applicable findings. These new data sets also allow us to study the value of data in more detail. This is interesting, for instance, when we want to evaluate the potential value of different datasets, including those of public observations in citizen science projects, such as CrowdWater. In this lecture, I will present findings of recent modeling studies based on large samples of catchments with a focus on the value of different types of data and the question how to best simulate (almost) ungauged catchments.

How to cite: Seibert, J.: Developments in hydrological modelling: from Darcy’s work on public fountains to observations by the public  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10709, 2025.

The increasing water demand by human societies raises concerns on the extent to which it is possible to feed the world with the limited freshwater resources of the planet. The growing competition for water between human uses and environmental needs limits the development of suitable water security scenarios for a sustainable future.  Human appropriation of water resources is for large part instrumental to the enjoyment of human rights to food. To what extent can such rights be reconciled with other human needs as well as the needs of Nature? This seminar will show how humanity is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and the water resources it relies on. Through a suite of ecohydrological and socio-environmental analyses, we evaluate the biophysical and social justice limits to the sustainable use of water resources through a variety of perspectives accounting for hydrologic constraints, human needs, environmental flows, and globalization.

How to cite: D'Odorico, P.: The ‘safe operating space’ for global and local water use under climate and societal change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13721, 2025.

EGU25-543 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

A more acute and continuous decline in Groundwater in Northwest India  

Roniki Anjaneyulu and Abhishek Abhishek

Groundwater is a vital resource for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes in many regions. However, the increasing demand and unsustainable extraction practices have raised concerns about the long-term viability and sustainability of groundwater storage (GWS), especially in areas where groundwater is the primary source of meeting various demands. Here, we focus on GWS changes in India’s Northwestern states, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttara Pradesh, and Delhi over two decades (2002-2023). These states encompass 875,249 km2 area within the Indus and Ganges river basins, constitute approximately 59% cultivated land, and sustain 525.52 million people. Leveraging GRACE-based TWS data and GLDAS model data, our analysis reveals significant (P<0.05) declining GWS trends with a slope of −20.88 ± 0.53 mm/year, which is more acute than previously reported estimates. Some trend change points in February 2008 and June 2016 are detected that lead to segmented trends with slopes of −18.97 ± 2.45 mm/year (Jan-2002 to Feb-2008), −9.16 ± 1.96 mm/year (Feb-2008 to Jun-2016), −11.80 ± 2.51 mm/year (Jun-2016 to Dec-2023). Spatially divergent trends are found with high decreasing trends of more than 40 mm/year in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and some parts of Rajasthan and Uttara Pradesh. This is primarily due to anthropogenic activities like groundwater extraction for domestic and agricultural purposes. In contrast, Gujrat shows subtle positive trends, less than 10 mm/year, due to improved water management, irrigation practices, artificial recharge efforts, monsoonal rainfall, and efficient water extraction management​. Multi-decadal variability and the recent depletion across these six states may foster discussions on policy actions and enhanced multilateral cooperation for a sustainable future, especially in the face of escalating groundwater extraction and a warming climate. This highlights the critical need for immediate attention to water resource challenges in the Northwestern states of India.

Keywords: Groundwater storage (GWS); GRACE; GLDAS; Anthropogenic activities; Policy interventions.

How to cite: Anjaneyulu, R. and Abhishek, A.: A more acute and continuous decline in Groundwater in Northwest India , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-543, 2025.

EGU25-2656 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Developing Practical Green-Grey Solutions Based on Critical Node Identification for Stormwater Management 

Ge Yang, Guoru Huang, and Bowei Zeng

Urbanization has exacerbated challenges faced by urban watersheds, including increased impervious surfaces, deteriorating water quality, and heightened flood risks. Previous research has extensively employed the Genetic Algorithm (GA)  to optimize urban grey-green infrastructure (GGI), primarily focusing on preventing system-wide overflow during design storm events. However, the high costs associated with these solutions have often hindered their implementation. This study proposes a practical approach to enhance urban stormwater management by prioritizing interventions at critical locations within watersheds. A multi-index fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (MFCE) model was developed to identify critical nodes in the drainage network based on hazard (overflow volume and duration), topological characteristics (degree and Katz centrality), and vulnerability (peak hour traffic flow). Problematic segments within the drainage network, including those with adverse slopes, mismatched pipe diameters, and ground depressions, were identified using a combination of SWMM simulations and graph-based analyses. Subsequently, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) was employed to optimize the design and placement of grey-green infrastructure solutions, subject to the constraint of preventing overflow at these critical nodes during design storm events. A case study in Guangzhou, China, demonstrated the efficacy of this approach. The optimized grey-green infrastructure system significantly reduced budgetary costs and peak flow compared to traditional grey infrastructure systems, while enhancing flood control and improving the overall resilience of the urban watershed.

How to cite: Yang, G., Huang, G., and Zeng, B.: Developing Practical Green-Grey Solutions Based on Critical Node Identification for Stormwater Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2656, 2025.

EGU25-2901 | Posters virtual | VPS8

Simulation of Salt and Moisture Dynamics in Agricultural Fields Using HYDRUS: Insights from a Sensor-Based Calibration 

Mohammad Hossaini Baheri and Massoud Tajrishy

The sustainable management of soil moisture and salinity is a critical challenge for semi-arid regions like the Mahabad Plain in northwestern Iran. This study applies the HYDRUS-1D model, calibrated using sensor-based data, to simulate water and salt dynamics in a 4 HA sugar beet field. The Mahabad Plain, covering 249 km², experiences annual precipitation of 402 mm and evaporation rates of 1,560 mm. Despite its fertile soils, the region faces persistent challenges such as waterlogging, salinity, and unsustainable irrigation practices, exacerbated by agricultural expansion and climate variability. Sensor data were collected every other day from four soil depths (0–25 cm, 25–50 cm, 50–75 cm, and 75–100 cm) in a single sugar beet field between late June 2024 and late July 2024. These measurements were used to calibrate the HYDRUS-1D model, optimizing parameters such as residual and saturated water content, hydraulic conductivity, and dispersion coefficients. Calibration metrics, including RMSE and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, confirmed the reliability of the simulations in replicating observed conditions. The results revealed critical inefficiencies in irrigation practices. Over-irrigation was observed, particularly in deeper soil layers, where moisture levels exceeded the optimal range of 18–25% for sugar beet cultivation. Surface layers (0–25 cm) also exhibited frequent waterlogging after irrigation events, with moisture levels surpassing 25%. Electrical conductivity (EC) levels, however, remained within the safe range of 0.6–1.3 dS/m, indicating effective salt leaching and no immediate risk to crop health. Simulations demonstrated that increasing irrigation intervals by 1–2 days could reduce water consumption by 15–30%, prevent excessive soil saturation, and promote healthier root growth. This approach ensures that soil moisture remains within the optimal range while maintaining crop yield and quality. This study is the first of its kind for the Mahabad Plain, offering a novel application of sensor-calibrated HYDRUS-1D modeling. It provides actionable recommendations for addressing water scarcity and improving agricultural sustainability. By integrating field observations with advanced modeling, the research bridges gaps in water resource management and offers replicable solutions for semi-arid agricultural systems worldwide. The findings are especially relevant as the region faces increasing agricultural demands and environmental challenges, including efforts to restore Lake Urmia. By improving irrigation efficiency and reducing agricultural water consumption, more water can be directed toward Lake Urmia, contributing to its restoration and the broader ecological balance of the region.

How to cite: Hossaini Baheri, M. and Tajrishy, M.: Simulation of Salt and Moisture Dynamics in Agricultural Fields Using HYDRUS: Insights from a Sensor-Based Calibration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2901, 2025.

EGU25-4107 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Sequential Gaussian Mixtures for Transient Hydraulic Tomography Inversion in Fractured Aquifers 

Prem Chand Muraharirao and Phanindra Kbvn

Fractured aquifer parameters are expected to have complex non-Gaussian spatial distributions. Gaussian Mixture Models, known for their effectiveness in representing non-Gaussian distributions, present a promising alternative for capturing the complex heterogeneity of fractured geologic settings however their usage in the fractured geologic settings is unexplored. In this study we extended the application of Gaussian mixtures to transient hydraulic tomography on laboratory-based fractured geologic settings using sequential Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). We further examined the impact of the number of Gaussian components, sampling strategies and the amount of pumping data on the performance of the sequential GMM. Results demonstrate that GMM with an optimal number of Gaussian components effectively identifies high and low conductivity regions, fracture connectivity, and reasonably predicts drawdowns (R² = 0.61) pumping from validation ports. Stratified sampling of GMM parameters (R2 = 0.74, average RMSEmedian= 9.89 mm) outperforms other sampling strategies like random (R2 = 0.61, average RMSEmedian= 20.64 mm ), uniform (R2 = 0.64, average RMSEmedian= 11.70 mm) and quasi-random sampling (R2 = 0.67, average RMSEmedian= 11.40 mm) techniques in mapping the fracture connectivity and parameter distribution. Stratified sampling with reduced and information-based pumping data maintains commensurable accuracy (R2 = 0.75, average RMSEmedian= 11.34 mm). Overall, our findings suggest that the sequential GMM combined with stratified sampling technique effectively captures the spatial variability of aquifer parameters in fractured media.

How to cite: Muraharirao, P. C. and Kbvn, P.: Sequential Gaussian Mixtures for Transient Hydraulic Tomography Inversion in Fractured Aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4107, 2025.

EGU25-4251 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Optimization of groundwater pumping rates using meshless simulation-based optimization model 

Kunwar Gaurav Singh and Tinesh Pathania

Recent water demands have created immense stress on groundwater, especially in the region facing water scarcity. Hence, optimizing groundwater pumping and developing sustainable water management strategies becomes important for such areas. The traditional mesh-based methods, such as finite difference (FDM) and finite element methods (FEM) for groundwater modelling requires high-quality mesh generation. In these methods, generating a high-quality mesh for complex aquifers is a time-consuming task. Therefore, meshless methods that work with scattered field nodes and avoid mesh generation are more suitable for complex groundwater problems. The present study uses the meshless generalized finite difference method (GFDM) for modelling the groundwater flow and integrating it with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to determine the optimal pumping rates for a hypothetical aquifer system. In this work, optimal pumping rates for different groundwater withdrawal scenarios are obtained through the proposed meshless simulation-based optimization model (GFDM-PSO), indicating its application to real-world problems.

How to cite: Singh, K. G. and Pathania, T.: Optimization of groundwater pumping rates using meshless simulation-based optimization model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4251, 2025.

Title: Hydrogeochemical Dynamics of Middle Andaman: Unraveling the Impact of Seawater Intrusion and Limestone Caves on Groundwater Chemistry

Pardeep Kumar1,2#, Saumitra Mukherjee1*

*Corresponding author- saumitramukherjee3@gmail.com

#Presenting Author: Pardeepranga001@gmail.com

1School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

2Quality Council of India, New Delhi

Abstract: Groundwater resources in coastal and island aquifers are increasingly threatened by seawater intrusion, exacerbated by climate change, sea level rise, erratic rainfall patterns, and over-extraction of groundwater. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Middle Andaman, where the interaction of groundwater, surface water, and seawater occurs within a complex hydrogeological framework. To assess the groundwater chemistry and its suitability for drinking and irrigation, a comprehensive study was conducted using geochemical, geospatial, and statistical methods.

Groundwater samples (n=24) and a reference seawater sample were analyzed for major ionic compositions using ICP, spectrophotometry, and flame photometry. Hydrogeochemical indices, including Chloro-Alkaline Indices (CAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), and agricultural suitability indices such as total hardness (TH), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), and magnesium adsorption ratio (MAR), were evaluated. A combination of ionic ratios—Cl/HCO₃, Ca/(HCO₃ + SO₄), (Ca + Mg)/Cl, Ca/Mg, and others—was used to characterize the influence of seawater intrusion and the dissolution of limestone minerals in the aquifers.

The results revealed that 24% of groundwater samples were unsuitable for drinking based on WQI, while 80% and 12% of samples were unsuitable for irrigation based on TH and MAR, respectively. The Durov plot and Schoeller's diagram indicated a dominance of Ca-HCO₃ and Na-HCO₃ water types in 48% and 24% of the samples, respectively, with enrichment of alkali and alkaline earth metal salts due to seawater intrusion. Chloride ion relationships suggested a reverse ion exchange process in 64% of samples, while X-ray diffraction analysis confirmed the presence of limestone minerals such as aragonite, calcite, dolomite, and magnetite.

Geospatial integration of hydrochemical data showed that 44% of the region was moderately affected, and 54% was slightly affected by salinity. Active tectonic lineaments and interconnected faults were found to facilitate seawater intrusion into the deep aquifer, highlighting the role of structural geology in the region's hydrogeochemical dynamics. This study underscores the urgent need for sustainable water resource management strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of seawater intrusion on groundwater quality in Middle Andaman.

Keywords: Middle Andaman; Groundwater; Seawater intrusion; Water quality Index; Limestone caves

How to cite: Kumar, P. and Mukherjee, S.: Hydrogeochemical Dynamics of Middle Andaman: Unraveling the Impact of Seawater Intrusion and Limestone Caves on Groundwater Chemistry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4752, 2025.

EGU25-5314 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Seismicity and Groundwater Dynamics: Impacts on the Critical Zone in spring of center Mexico 

Betsabe Atalia Sierra Garcia, Oscar Escolero, Selene Olea Olea, and Priscila Medina Ortega

The relationship between groundwater and seismicity has been documented in various regions worldwide. Mexico is no exception to this phenomenon. On September 19, 2017, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck between the states of Puebla and Morelos, as reported by the National Seismological Service.

Approximately 50 km from the epicenter, the Agua Hedionda spring exhibited significant physical and chemical changes as a result of the earthquake. These changes highlight the dynamic interactions within the critical zone—the near-surface environment where rock, soil, water, air, and living organisms interact to shape the Earth's surface. The spring's discharge showed notable alterations, including a decrease in flow rate, reductions in major ion concentrations, and shifts in its isotopic composition, providing clear evidence of the connection between regional seismicity and the quality and availability of groundwater.

The analysis of changes in the spring's groundwater over time revealed its vulnerability to losing essential properties, either temporarily or permanently. Hydrochemical and volumetric flow rate data indicated that the spring underwent noticeable changes even before the earthquake. While the water chemistry showed gradual recovery by 2022, the flow rate only returned to approximately 25% of its pre-earthquake level.

In a country like Mexico, where groundwater is essential for numerous activities and where the interaction of five tectonic plates creates a dynamic seismic environment, studying the interplay between seismicity, groundwater, and processes within the critical zone is crucial for understanding and managing water resources sustainably.

How to cite: Sierra Garcia, B. A., Escolero, O., Olea Olea, S., and Medina Ortega, P.: Seismicity and Groundwater Dynamics: Impacts on the Critical Zone in spring of center Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5314, 2025.

EGU25-9851 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Study on Reservoir Ecological Scheduling Based on Multi-Objective Optimization 

Chunshan He and Ruifeng Liang

Hydropower development in river basins has significantly promoted economic growth while greatly changing the river ecosystems. Effective reservoir management is crucial to maintaining economic benefits while minimizing impacts on fish species. This study focuses on Reservoir X, which has annual regulation capacity, and proposes an ecological scheduling model for the fish spawning period using the NSGA-II algorithm combined with water temperature and TDG (Total Dissolved Gas) predictions. The model framework is as follows: first, hydrological analysis is conducted based on natural flow data at the dam site to determine the flow requirements for target fish species during their spawning period, providing constraints for optimization. Second, multiple regression methods are used to predict the discharge water temperature and TDG saturation of Station X. Finally, multi-objective optimization is performed considering hydropower generation, fish spawning period water temperature requirements, and TDG risks as objectives, with flow requirements during the spawning period, flood control, and water balance as constraints. The proposed model provides practical parameters for reservoir operation and guidance for different optimization objectives across various reservoirs.

How to cite: He, C. and Liang, R.: Study on Reservoir Ecological Scheduling Based on Multi-Objective Optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9851, 2025.

EGU25-11817 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Ecohydrogeological characteristics of spring waters in rural areas (northeast of Moscow region) 

Daria Gusarova and Daria Yablonskaya

Anthropogenic impact on aquifers leads to variations of groundwaters chemical content. This study is determined to describe current geochemical characteristics of springs in Shelkovo district in order to assess the quality of the water that is used for drinking purposes by residents.

The geological structure of the territory includes Devonian, Upper Carboniferous, Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous terrigenous-carbonate rocks, overlapped by thin Quaternary sandy deposits. Surface sediments are permeable to polluted runoff waters, which can increase the vulnerability of groundwater and reduce its quality.

This research presents the obtained results of water parameters (COD, pH, electrical conductivity), the content of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-)  for 12 springs. The spring waters are slightly mineralized (M=0.1-0.5 g/l), pH values vary from 5.5 to 7.5.  The total hardness is 0.63-5.7 mg-eq/l. The composition of the water is variable. Springs could be divided by the content of major anions: the dominance of HCO3- which is due to natural causes. In some cases the presence of Cl- and SO42- because of the use of fertilizers and deicing reagents in urban territories. 

The concentration of major ions was compared to maximum permissible concentrations in drinking water (by WHO standards). It was noted to slightly exceed the limit for nitrate ion as well as for chemical oxygen demand.  Some waters had a pH indicator lower than the standard range.

Comparison of the ratios Cl-/(Cl-+Na+) and Na+/(Na++Cl-) to total dissolved salt was applied in order to figure out the mechanism of spring waters forming (Gibbs, 1970). The results showed that chemical composition is primarily controlled by rock weathering. The ratio relationships between equivalent content Cl-/Na+, HCO3-/Na+, Ca2+/Na+ indicate the type of rocks as a silicate (Gaillardet, 1999). The effect of human impact on groundwaters used to be assessed by comparing the equivalent ratios Cl-/Na+ and NO3-/Na+ (Zhang et al, 2024). The calculations performed summarised anthropogenic impact, including agronomic activities. Significantly connections between various major ions were pointed out due to correlation analysis: as well as fertilizer components and pesticides, anti-icing reagents for roads in winter season and household chemicals from sewers were detected. 

The studied waters were formed by dissolving silicate rocks by atmospheric precipitation. As it was figured out by a significant role of chloride and sulfur ions, and presence of nitrogen-ions, the area of springs' feeding is located in permeable contaminated quaternary sediments. But despite anthropogenic impact, the chemical composition of springs correspond to WHO standards for drinking waters.

References

Gaillardet J., Dupre B., Louvat P., Allegre C.J. Global silicate weathering and CO2 consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of large rivers // Chemical geology – 1999. – Т. 159. – №. 1-4. – С. 3-30.

Gibbs R. J. Mechanisms controlling world water chemistry //Science. – 1970. – Т. 170. – №. 3962. – С. 1088-1090. 

Zhang, H., Wang, Z., Wang, X. et al. Hydrochemical characterization and health risk assessment of different types of water bodies in Fenghuang Mountain Area, Northeast China. Environ Geochem Health 46, 292 (2024)

How to cite: Gusarova, D. and Yablonskaya, D.: Ecohydrogeological characteristics of spring waters in rural areas (northeast of Moscow region), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11817, 2025.

EGU25-15178 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Evaluating a rapid approach for estimating soil hydraulic conductivity function from near-surface infiltration measurements  

Aparimita Priyadarshini Naik and Sreeja Pekkat

Accurate estimation of the soil hydraulic conductivity function (SHCF), which describes the relationship between hydraulic conductivity and matric suction in soil, is essential for modeling flow and transport processes in the vadose zone. Traditional steady-state methods for directly determining SHCF are often laborious, time-consuming, and sometimes inadequate for capturing transient-state flow conditions. This study aims to propose a simple, quick, and accurate method for estimating SHCF that facilitates transient-state flow analysis during vadose zone modeling. The proposed method involves inverse numerical modeling using cumulative infiltration and final moisture content data from surface infiltration tests conducted with a handy mini disc infiltrometer (MDI). To validate this approach, the MDI-inverse modeling results were compared with SHCF results from another transient-state method, the instantaneous profile method (IPM), under similar initial soil conditions. The MDI infiltration tests were performed in homogeneously packed soil columns for two soils (identified as loam and silty clay loam textures) collected from nearby field sites. For each soil, separate IPM tests were conducted in soil columns equipped with soil moisture and matric suction sensors at various depths to facilitate calculation of reference SHCF. A comparison between the MDI and reference IPM results revealed a good agreement, with a low normalized RMSE (under 15%) for the estimated SHCFs and a low relative error (under 35%) for the optimized van Genuchten parameters α and n. The findings indicate that MDI-based cumulative infiltration measurements can reliably estimate SHCF via inverse simulation, providing a practical solution for field applications where traditional sensor deployment is challenging. Moreover, the results also establish MDI as a rapid, convenient, and non-invasive tool for determining SHCF for transient-state flow scenarios.

How to cite: Naik, A. P. and Pekkat, S.: Evaluating a rapid approach for estimating soil hydraulic conductivity function from near-surface infiltration measurements , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15178, 2025.

Sociohydrology, an interdisciplinary field exploring the dynamic interactions between human and water systems, has emerged as a critical area of study to address the growing complexity of water management challenges in the Anthropocene. Transdisciplinary practices in sociohydrology extend beyond traditional academic boundaries, integrating diverse knowledge systems, stakeholder perspectives, and real-world practices. These approaches bridge the gap between science and society, enabling the co-creation of solutions that are socially equitable, environmentally sustainable, and contextually relevant. This study explores the transformative potential of transdisciplinary approaches in sociohydrology, emphasizing collaborative governance, stakeholder engagement, and sustainable water management. Drawing on an extensive review of literature and following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses), the research highlights diverse applications of transdisciplinary methodologies in water management, ranging from integrating citizen science frameworks to fostering adaptive strategies for climate resilience. Case studies spanning the Katari River Basin in Bolivia to community-led monitoring in Australia's Great Barrier Reef illustrate how integrating ecological, social, and economic dimensions can address complex hydrological challenges. These practices underscore the importance of co-producing knowledge among researchers, policymakers, and communities, thus bridging gaps between scientific inquiry and real-world implementation. By synthesizing insights from multi-scalar analyses, the paper offers a framework for designing adaptive, equitable, and sustainable water management strategies. The findings advocate for institutional reforms and capacity-building initiatives to strengthen collaborative governance and propose a roadmap for applying transdisciplinary methodologies to global water crises. This research contributes to the evolving discourse on sociohydrology, emphasizing the need for integrated systems thinking and participatory processes to achieve long-term water security.

How to cite: Kabir, Md. H.: Advancing Collaborative Governance and Sustainable Water Management: Transdisciplinary Practices in Sociohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15437, 2025.

EGU25-15495 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Are baseflow separation methods suitable for assessing shallow alluvial aquifers’ contribution to streamflow? 

Juan Pablo García Montealegre, Yvan Caballero, and Manuel Del Jesus Peñil

Currently, climate change and increasing water demand pose a growing threat to the future availability of water for human societies and ecosystems that depend on it. At the same time, growing evidence suggests that groundwater is playing an increasingly active role in the global water cycle, particularly in sustaining river flows worldwide (Xie et al., 2024). In this context, quantifying the water exchange between these two components of the hydrological cycle becomes essential for an integrated assessment of water availability. For this purpose, baseflow separation methods are valuable tools, though their limitations remain a subject of debate.

Several authors have suggested that commonly used baseflow separation methods should be applied with caution, since these methods often produce large estimation errors, when they are compared with results obtained using three-dimensional flow numerical models (hereafter referred to as 3D models), thereby limiting their applicability. Nevertheless, these methods remain a widely used alternative due to their lower data and resource requirements compared to 3D models. To address these limitations, we proposed a novel methodology based on baseflow separation methods for analysing the interactions between a shallow alluvial aquifer system and the overlying river network. Subsequently, we tested its performance against a 3D model.

The study area is the alluvial aquifer system located at the confluence of the Tarn, Aveyron and Garonne rivers. A 3D model was developed using the BRGM’s MARTHE software. The study area was divided into sub-zones that meet the same isolation conditions for the river network delimited for the analysis of the results to ensure a more robust validation. Time series of flow and cumulative volume for components of the water balance in the river network, as well as flow at gauging points, were analysed. Additionally, different integration periods (quarterly, half-yearly, annual, and biannual) were examined. Several baseflow separation methods were tested, including both digital filtering and graphical methods.

The results showed that the methods proposed by Chapman (1991) and Chapman and Maxwell (1996) consistently outperformed all others across the entire study area and for all integration periods. R² coefficients of determination greater than 0.8 were obtained in both cases for integration periods exceeding six months. Notably, shorter integration periods better captured the temporal variation of water exchange between the aquifer and the river network. However, longer integration periods produced more accurate overall results, likely because the filters struggled to capture flow reversals between the aquifer and river network during flood events.

 

Acknowledgments: Authors acknowledge the funding provided by project WaMA-WaDiT (PCI2024-153483) funded by MICIU /AEI /10.13039/501100011033/ UE

References

Chapman, T. G. (1991). Evaluation of automated techniques for base flow and recession analyses. Water Resources Research, 27(7), 1783–1784. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR01007

Chapman, T. G., & Maxwell, A. I. (1996). Baseflow separation: Comparison of numerical methods with tracer experiments. Paper presented at the Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Water and the Environment, Institution of Engineers, Australia.

Xie, J., Liu, X., Jasechko, S., et al. (2024). Majority of global river flow sustained by groundwater. Nature Geoscience, 17, 770–777. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01483-5

How to cite: García Montealegre, J. P., Caballero, Y., and Del Jesus Peñil, M.: Are baseflow separation methods suitable for assessing shallow alluvial aquifers’ contribution to streamflow?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15495, 2025.

The Indo-Gangetic plain, well-known for its Alluvial landscape for human settlement, is currently facing unprecedented industrialization, and urbanization population, leading to high stress on its aquifer. On the other hand, co-contamination of arsenic (As) and chromium (Cr) in shallow aquifers has been showing an alarming global presence that varies with redox conditions, geochemical signatures, and human activities. We aim to address the influence of the suburban and urban land use on the co-contamination of As and Cr, using various geostatistical tools, models, and indices. Among twenty-six (n=26) groundwater samples, the majority of water types were found to be Mg2+-HCO3- and Na+-K+ exhibiting carbonate weathering and evaporation enrichments with saturation indices depicting the supersaturation of calcite and dolomite. The aquifer conditions in both suburban and urban settings were identified as reducing, facilitating the desorption of arsenic. Probability exceedance implied inverse correlation between contaminant concentrations and the probability of their likelihood of surpassing regulatory thresholds. Factor analysis indicates that the natural alignment of contaminants, particularly As and Cr, is maintained under suburban land use but significantly altered in urban settings. The influences of oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and iron (Fe) concentration on As and Cr co-contamination are effective in suburban environments, while urban aquifers face additional confounding factors, including artificial sources from industries and subsurface leaching. An integrated cluster heatmap has identified a trifecta of As, Cr, and lead (Pb), closely linked to pH, DO, and K+, highlighting the effects of increased anthropogenic activities in alluvial floodplains. Finally, a conceptual model was developed to clarify the common processes in these environments, facilitating the creation of universal management strategies for aquifers impacted by As and Cr co-contamination.

Keywords: arsenic; chromium; redox; mid-Gangetic plains; co-contamination

How to cite: Saxena, A., Kumar, M., and Bahukhandi, K. D.: Land use alters the alignment of Arsenic and Chromium co-contamination in the unconsolidated aquifer under reducing environments of the Mid-Gangetic Plains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16583, 2025.

EGU25-17885 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Integrating Geophysical and Hydrogeological Methods for Groundwater Assessment in the Deccan Basalt Region of India 

Abdul Khalique, Akarsh Singh, and Kumar Gaurav

Groundwater assessment in the Deccan basalt region of India is challenging due to its heterogeneous geology and complex aquifer dynamics. This study integrates hydrogeophysical methods, including DC resistivity and time domain Induced Polarization (DCIP) and slug tests, to evaluate aquifer potential near Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. The research focuses on both shallow unconfined and deeper semi-confined aquifers within weathered and fractured basalt formations.

Electrical resistivity surveys included more than 25 DCIP profiles targeting weathered and fractured zones. Resistivity values ranged from 15–70 Ωm in weathered/fractured basalts and varied based on the degree of water saturation and fracturing, reflecting lithological heterogeneity. ERT profiles revealed low-resistivity and moderate-to-high chargeability zones, indicative of fracture porosity and groundwater retention. Fracture anisotropy and resistivity contrasts provided critical insights into aquifer connectivity and dynamics.

Slug tests conducted at a borehole with a drilled depth of 61 m validated geophysical findings. Hydraulic parameters, including hydraulic conductivity (3.9E-7 m/s), transmissivity (1.9E-5 m²/s), storativity (0.001), and specific storage (2.1E-5 m-1), were estimated using Bouwer-Rice and Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos solutions. These localized parameters complement the spatially extensive data from geophysical surveys. Seasonal water-level fluctuations emphasize the significance of monsoonal recharge in sustaining aquifers.

This integrated approach highlights the role of fractures, weathered zones, and advanced geophysical techniques in delineating groundwater zones and assessing recharge potential. The findings contribute to effective groundwater exploration and sustainable management strategies, addressing water scarcity challenges in basaltic terrains of the Deccan Traps.

Keywords: Aquifer potential, Bouwer-Rice and Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos solution, ERT, slug test, weathered/fractured basalts, hydrogeology.

How to cite: Khalique, A., Singh, A., and Gaurav, K.: Integrating Geophysical and Hydrogeological Methods for Groundwater Assessment in the Deccan Basalt Region of India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17885, 2025.

EGU25-18797 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Enhancing Urban Stormwater Management: Traditional Measures versus Future Perspectives 

Fatemeh Fahimi and Mohammad Javad Ostad Mirza Tehrani

This abstract investigates the evolution of urban stormwater management, contrasting traditional methods with emerging approaches, emphasizing the integration of Low Impact Development (LID) strategies and Building Information Modeling (BIM). A comprehensive review of Scopus and Web of Science articles synthesizes existing research to identify trends, challenges, and opportunities in this interdisciplinary domain. Key insights include the effectiveness of LID practices such as permeable pavements, rain barrels, and the application of simulation tools like SWMM and HEC-RAS in reducing runoff and enhancing urban hydraulic modeling. The findings highlight the critical role of green infrastructure in mitigating rainfall impacts and the importance of cost-benefit analyses for evaluating LID implementation. Despite proven benefits, gaps persist in integrating LID into land-use planning, particularly in addressing future climate risks and accommodating urban growth. The study underscores the potential of 3D digital technologies to enhance stormwater management strategies, especially under extreme rainfall conditions. Additionally, the review identifies the lack of high-resolution data as a barrier to informed decision-making. It advocates for stronger collaboration between researchers and policymakers to foster sustainable urban development, improve water conservation, and minimize flooding risks. LID practices, integrated with Building Information Modeling offer a cost-effective solution to urban stormwater challenges, paving the way for resilient and sustainable cities.

How to cite: Fahimi, F. and Ostad Mirza Tehrani, M. J.: Enhancing Urban Stormwater Management: Traditional Measures versus Future Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18797, 2025.

EGU25-20066 | Posters virtual | VPS8

Enhancing Resilience in Human-Reservoir Systems with NLP and AI Frameworks 

Sukrati Gautam, David J. Yu, and Shin Hoon Cheol

The resilience of a large-scale water infrastructure system to cascading effects is
fundamentally dependent on the interdependencies of its components within the
infrastructure network. These interdependencies—which means that the states of
two or more infrastructure components are tightly interrelated through mechanisms
such as physical connection, geographical proximity, and information relay—can
cause a localized event to spread into a system-wide event. Of these, logical
interdependencies remain poorly understood. Little is known about how two
infrastructures affect the state of each other through human decisions and how such
logical connections can be detected and measured. In this study, we tackled this
gap by conducting an applied case study on the Lake Mendocino Reservoir in
California, USA. Crucially, our approach focuses on reservoir institutions (rules)
that structure human decisions around reservoir systems. Reservoir management
relies heavily on operational rules and regulations, but climate change demands
more adaptive and discretionary decision-making by operators. This may further
introduce logical interdependencies in a reservoir system. We develop a novel
framework that integrates Institutional Analysis using Large Language Models to
advance Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and Bayesian Network
Modeling to systematically analyze and quantify risk associated with logical
interdependencies. We aim to improve decision-making and risk management in
reservoir operations. This research provides essential insights into enhancing the
resilience of water management infrastructures, particularly in the face of climate
change.

How to cite: Gautam, S., Yu, D. J., and Hoon Cheol, S.: Enhancing Resilience in Human-Reservoir Systems with NLP and AI Frameworks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20066, 2025.

EGU25-20070 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Enhancing Soil Moisture Estimation through Machine Learning Models and Remote Sensing Data 

Vidushi Sharma, Siddik Barbhuiya, and Vivek Gupta

Moisture content available in soil, is a critical parameter for understanding the health of ecosystems, agricultural productivity, and the management of water resources. Soil moisture is an essential component in the growth of vegetation, climate regulation, and the hydrological cycle. The correct estimation of soil moisture is very crucial for optimizing irrigation, enhancing crop yields, and managing water resources. Spatial coverage limits traditional in-situ measurements, while remote sensing-based approaches, especially using SAR imagery, provide scalability to large-scale spatial coverage for soil moisture estimation. This study compares five machine learning-based models- Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Random Forest (RF), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), and Support Vector Machines (SVM)-for deriving estimates of soil moisture using features based on VV and VH polarizations and incidence angle from SAR imagery. Model performance was also evaluated using in-situ measurements from Vaira Ranch in California's Central Valley, which comprises grasslands and wetlands. Meteorological data, which include precipitation and antecedent rainfall from the ERA5, were used to improve prediction. Each model was hyperparameter tuned, with LSTM adjusting layers, units, and learning rate; RF optimizing tree number, depth, and feature selection; MLR modifying regularization strength; MLP refining layers, neurons, and activation function; and SVM fine-tuning kernel type, C, and gamma. Performance metrics used for evaluation included R² and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results indicated that LSTM outperformed other models with a R² of 0.89, followed by SVM at a value of 0.81 and RF at a value of 0.78. MLP and MLR values were lower at 0.67. This research focuses on the advantages of the integration of remote sensing data and meteorological information for better soil moisture estimation using machine learning and show that the advanced models such as LSTM and RF can effectively predict soil moisture, with important implications for improving agricultural management and resource planning.

How to cite: Sharma, V., Barbhuiya, S., and Gupta, V.: Enhancing Soil Moisture Estimation through Machine Learning Models and Remote Sensing Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20070, 2025.

EGU25-20284 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins 

fatemeh farzaneh, Hojjat Mianabadi, Behnam Andik, and Sahand Ghadimi

New global challenges, such as the intense desire for development and climate change, can exacerbate water conflicts among stakeholders (at local, regional, national, and international levels). Material interests are often regarded as effective tools for resolving conflicts and fostering a spirit of cooperation among riparian countries in transboundary river basins. However, discourses and narratives produced by the media, alongside material factors, play a decisive role in shaping water interactions, a topic that has received less attention. The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of media on transboundary water interactions. To achieve this goal, a systematic review of existing research across various databases was conducted, alongside an analysis of library resources on the influence of media on water interactions. The findings indicate that conflict is an inherent and natural feature of water systems, particularly in shared river basins. However, most media articles and reports tend to intensify water conflicts in shared basins, with limited coverage dedicated to pathways for cooperation that could bring riparian stakeholders together. The use of media to advance the interests of states within a basin often strengthens the potential for water conflicts. Therefore, constructive changes in water diplomacy and conflict transformation require an understanding of the media's role in water cooperation and disputes. This understanding is essential for shaping the water policies of riparian countries.

How to cite: farzaneh, F., Mianabadi, H., Andik, B., and Ghadimi, S.: The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20284, 2025.

EGU25-20494 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Arsenic, Fluoride, and PFOS Co-Contamination in Yorkshire's Water Resources 

Vivek Agarwal, Manish Kumar, and Aseem Saxena

Contaminant co-occurrence in water resources poses significant threats to public health and ecosystem stability, necessitating comprehensive monitoring and analysis. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution of arsenic, fluoride, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) contamination in groundwater and surface water across Yorkshire from 2000 to 2023. Data for this assessment were obtained from the Environment Agency, ensuring reliable and standardised measurements across the study period. The results reveal a concerning trend of increasing arsenic and fluoride concentrations, particularly in the eastern and southern regions, with arsenic levels exceeding 10 µg/L and fluoride concentrations surpassing 1.5 mg/L in several areas by 2023. The PFOS contamination, assessed in both groundwater and surface water for 2023, highlights significant contamination in the southern regions, with concentrations exceeding 0.001 µg/L in some hotspots. The co-contamination maps indicate overlapping regions of high contaminant concentrations, suggesting potential sources of industrial pollution and agricultural runoff. This study emphasises the need for targeted mitigation strategies and continuous monitoring to protect public health and ensure water quality standards across the region.

 

How to cite: Agarwal, V., Kumar, M., and Saxena, A.: Spatiotemporal Assessment of Arsenic, Fluoride, and PFOS Co-Contamination in Yorkshire's Water Resources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20494, 2025.

EGU25-20587 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Soil Water Dynamics 

Vinod S Pathak

The prediction of soil moisture movement remains challenging due to the complexity of underground flow processes and the availability of accurate soil parameters. There have been attempts to overcome this issue with parametric models and inverse modeling, but it remains challenging because it requires knowledge of initial and boundary conditions. While deep learning offers a solution, the one significant constraint remains not to violate the physical constraints. I present a novel physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework that integrates the soil moisture movement governing equation constraints with deep learning to predict soil moisture dynamics. The new approach follows mass conservation principles and soil hydraulic properties into the neural network's loss function. The model ensures physically consistent predictions. The framework simultaneously learns soil hydraulic parameters and water content distributions, adapting to heterogeneous soil conditions through a hybrid optimization strategy. The model incorporates the Van Genuchten parameterization within the physics-informed architecture to ensure consistency and accuracy. This methodology bridges the gap between computationally intensive traditional numerical solutions and pure data-driven approaches, offering a new paradigm for modeling soil water dynamics.

How to cite: Pathak, V. S.: Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Soil Water Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20587, 2025.

EGU25-20733 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

Exploring Endogeneity in Psychological Determinants of Community-Based Water Purification Technology Adoption 

Mithun Raj, Saket Pande, and Maneesha Ramesh

The adoption of community-based water purification technology in rural communities is strongly influenced by psychological factors, yet these factors often suffer from endogeneity, leading to biased estimations of their true impact. Our study investigates this critical issue, revealing that traditional estimation methods significantly underestimate the effects of key psychological determinants. Specifically, we found that perceived ease of access and descriptive norms, when treated as exogenous, were underestimated by 175% and 76%, respectively. This oversight highlights the importance of addressing endogeneity to accurately capture the relationship between psychological factors and adoption behavior. The endogenous nature of perceived benefits and descriptive norms highlights a crucial bidirectional relationship: as adoption increases, so do positive social norms and perceived benefits, creating a reinforcing cycle that further drives adoption within the community. Interventions that fail to consider this mutual reinforcement risk undervaluing key psychological factors, potentially undermining their effectiveness. We propose that cultural factors serve as instrumental variables (IVs) to mitigate endogeneity and offer a clearer pathway through which psychological factors influence behavior. For instance, cultural traits such as "work-luck" dynamics shape individuals' proactive or passive approaches to overcoming barriers to technology access. Similarly, generalized morality, which prioritizes communal welfare over individual gain, strengthens descriptive norms that promote widespread adoption. In collectivist societies, these norms hold significant influence, compelling individuals to adopt technologies to maintain social cohesion and uphold communal values.

Our study introduces a robust theoretical framework that integrates cultural factors into the analysis of technology adoption. By leveraging cultural traits, interventions can align more closely with community values, enhancing the likelihood of sustainable adoption. This approach not only provides deeper insights into the dynamics of technology adoption but also offers practical strategies for designing culturally sensitive interventions.

In conclusion, addressing the endogeneity of psychological factors through the lens of cultural influences provides a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the adoption process. This study advocates for the incorporation of cultural contexts in intervention strategies, ensuring they resonate with the community’s intrinsic values and beliefs. Future research could expand on this dynamic by employing system dynamic models to further explore the bidirectional feedback between psychological factors and behavior, ultimately contributing to more effective and sustainable adoption of community-based water purification technologies.

How to cite: Raj, M., Pande, S., and Ramesh, M.: Exploring Endogeneity in Psychological Determinants of Community-Based Water Purification Technology Adoption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20733, 2025.

EGU25-21834 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8

A step towards the protection and management of the Shallow Aquifer of the Keta Basin, in Ghana West Africa: an initial physico-chemical characterisation 

Prodeo Yao Agbotui, Mark Brookman- Amissah, Anthony Ewusi, and Anthony Woode

The Coastal Unconfined Shallow Sandy Aquifer of the Keta Basin, made up of Quaternary gravel, sand and clay and Neogenic Limonic deposits is the most economically accessible aquifer in Southern Volta, Ghana, West Africa. Water from the aquifer supports domestic supply and vegetable farming, which is the main stay of the area’s economy (Nerquaye-Tetteh 1993; Helstrup et al. 2007; Yidana et al. 2007). Despite the importance of this shallow aquifer, it is vulnerable to contamination from saline intrusion and agricultural activity in the area (Gill 1969; Nerquaye-Tetteh 1993; Kortatsi 1994; Kortatsi et al. 2005; Helstrup 2006). Protecting and managing this aquifer effectively will require the appreciation of the flow regime and dynamics via the collection of hydrogeological information such as geochemical properties and their variation over the years, hydraulic gradient, flow direction, well density, and their abstraction rates. However, this data is non-existent. This work set out to collect these basic hydrogeological information. This work was done via: geochemical sampling and analyses of thirty-five (35) wells for facies discrimination; the hydraulic head mapping of forty-five (45) wells for flow direction mapping and hydraulic gradient distribution, and particle size distribution testing of sampled aquifer material for the hydraulic conductivity distribution. The geochemical datasets showed: neutral and well buffered water groundwater; nitrates occurring in all the samples, with [NO3-] ranging between 0.35 – 25.3 mg/L, indicative of possible human influence on groundwater in the area; four (4)  main water types from the analyses as: Na-Cl, Ca-(HCO3)2, Na-HCO3,  and Ca-Cl2 with percentage dominances of 47, 41, 9 and 3% respectively. Na-Cl and Na-HCO3 waters characterised by very high SECs and  found in farm wells located near the coast and lagoons suggest saline intrusion (due to heavy pumping on farms) from the sea and lagoon. The central part of the area, has fresh water which with the Ca-(HCO3)2 water type, indicative of natural rock weathering processes and flow dynamics. Analysing the irrigation water use parameters from the geochemical showed that the water in the area was suitable with respect to residual sodium carbonate (RSC) and magnesium absorption ratio (MAR), whereas waters mostly affected by saline intrusion did not meet the  sodium percentage (Na%), sodium absorption ratio (SAR) and Kelly’s ratio (KR). Heavy  groundwater abstraction without regulation is fingered for causing saline intrusion in the area because of reduction of groundwater levels. The hydraulic gradient in the area mimics that of the natural ground level, with relatively gentle slope of 0.002, with the dominant groundwater flow direction of north to south. This work is novel as it sets the tone for the first-ever initial hydrogeological characterisation of the aquifer, whose state can be continuously monitored for advising the Government, and the Water, Agricultural and Health Directorates of the Municipal Assembly for the regulation of agriculture and abstraction in the area, so as to protect the aquifer and human health.

How to cite: Agbotui, P. Y., Amissah, M. B., Ewusi, A., and Woode, A.: A step towards the protection and management of the Shallow Aquifer of the Keta Basin, in Ghana West Africa: an initial physico-chemical characterisation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21834, 2025.

EGU25-580 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Streamflow simulations using regionalized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models in contrasting climatic conditions 

João Maria de Andrade, Rodolfo Nóbrega, Alfredo Ribeiro Neto, Miguel Rico-Ramirez, Gemma Coxon, and Suzana Montenegro

We investigate the potential of using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for estimating streamflow in (sub)tropical catchments under contrasting hydroclimatic regimes (semi-arid and humid). We have used 176 Brazilian catchments with at least 30 years of streamflow data and LSTM models with 16 static catchment attributes as input features. We tested different LSTM model configurations to assess their sensitivity to varying input sequence lengths (lookbacks). The primary objective was to explore the hydrological insights offered by LSTM-based streamflow models and compare their performance with the traditional GR4J hydrological model. With this design, we aim to address two research questions: (i) Does the performance of LSTM models depend on catchments' hydroclimatic characteristics? (ii) How effective are LSTM-based models for streamflow simulation in tropical and subtropical catchments under semi-arid and humid conditions? We adopt two modeling approaches: (1) regionalized models trained on catchments within the same hydroclimatic regime and (2) a composite model trained on a heterogeneous sample combining both arid and humid catchments. The findings reveal distinct sensitivities of LSTM models to hydroclimatic conditions. LSTM models exhibit higher sensitivity to the length of input sequences (lookbacks) in humid catchments, with longer sequences yielding better performance. This is attributed to the dominant hydrological processes in humid regions, which are influenced by long-term memory effects such as soil moisture and groundwater storage. Conversely, this sensitivity is not observed in semi-arid catchments, where streamflow dynamics are primarily driven by short-term precipitation events and exhibit less dependence on long-term hydrological processes. Furthermore, the composite model, which combines semi-arid and humid catchments, demonstrates a decrease in performance for semi-arid catchments. This suggests that adding catchments with contrasting hydroclimatic characteristics introduces heterogeneity in the dataset, potentially reducing the model's ability to capture the specific dynamics of semi-arid catchments. Overall, the regionalized LSTM models outperformed the GR4J model in both semi-arid and humid regimes, particularly in humid catchments. Approximately 87% of humid catchments and 50% of semi-arid catchments achieved Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values above 0.60 during the testing phase of the regionalized LSTM models. These results highlight the potential of LSTM networks for streamflow regionalization, especially in humid regions where long-term hydrological memory plays a critical role. The study underscores the strengths and limitations of LSTM models in tropical and subtropical catchments with contrasting hydroclimatic regimes. The findings suggest that LSTM models could serve as valuable tools for regional hydrological applications, aiding local and regional decision-making processes. Additionally, the results emphasize the importance of tailoring LSTM model configurations to the specific hydrological characteristics of catchments, particularly the choice of input sequence length, to maximize model performance. 

How to cite: Maria de Andrade, J., Nóbrega, R., Ribeiro Neto, A., Rico-Ramirez, M., Coxon, G., and Montenegro, S.: Streamflow simulations using regionalized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models in contrasting climatic conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-580, 2025.

Spatio-temporal variability of the terrestrial hydrological processes (land heat and water storage anomalies) has important implications in the climate predictability through their effects on surface energy and water fluxes. The changes in seasonal precipitation patterns associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon can alter the hydrological processes; for a given catchment, which in turn can influence the exchange of water and energy at the land surface-atmosphere interface. Hence the reliable prediction of the basin-scale water cycle components in a physically based high-resolution hydrological model equipped with sophisticated Land Surface Models (LSMs) is of prime requirement. The modern LSMs can provide detailed representations of important biophysical, biogeochemical and hydrological processes of varying spatial and temporal scales by incorporating the necessary feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere. When coupled to a physically based fully distributed hydrological model, it can affect the soil moisture patterns means of recycling the surface and sub-surface runoff (lateral terrestrial flow). However, despite the role of lateral terrestrial hydrological processes for the improved simulation of soil moistures, the sensitivity studies involving the land surface and sub-surface feedbacks are less pronounced especially for a tropical humid region with complex physiographic settings (presence of complex topography) under monsoon regimes (strong synoptic forcings). Therefore, in the present study, we examined a process based diagnosis regarding the role of the lateral flow on the terrestrial hydrological processes (Evapotranspiration, surface and sub-surface runoff, stream flow) and surface energy fluxes (latent heat, sensible heat) by using a multi-configured modeling framework of offline WRF-Hydro with Noah-Multi parameterizations (MP) LSM to enable systematic evaluation of the multiple physical parameterizations of hydrologic process representation; the validation has been done with the reanalysis dataset, a remotely sensed product and ground based observations.

How to cite: Sarkar, S. and Lakshmikanthan, P.: Modeling the impact of lateral flow on terrestrial water balance components and surface energy fluxes using WRF-Hydro with multi-configuration ensembles: a study over Krishna River Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1783, 2025.

EGU25-2646 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

A Transformer-based Graph Network for Flash Flood Disaster Classification 

Han Wang, Yunqing Xuan, Zhixiong Zhang, Marcela Antunes Meira, Qing Li, and Changjun Liu

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters, posing significant risks to both human life and infrastructure. The classification of their underlying drivers—such as high precipitation, dam breaches, landslides, and melting snow—remains a critical yet challenging task, especially in regions like China, where diverse geographical and climatic factors exacerbate disaster complexity. In this study, we propose a Transformer-based Graph Network (TGN) designed to tackle these challenges by leveraging a dataset of over 53,000 flash flood events, each characterized by non-uniform geographical attributes and varying levels of data completeness. Unlike traditional graph neural networks (GNNs) that depend on predefined graph structures, TGN dynamically learns and refines edge weights during training, enabling it to uncover asymmetric dependencies. This adaptability is particularly valuable when explicit relationships between nodes are unavailable or incomplete.

Integrating multi-head self-attention mechanisms from Transformer architectures, TGN captures complex interdependencies across watershed features while maintaining interpretability through sparsity and diversity constraints. A distinguishing feature of this framework is its ability to identify meaningful graph structures without prior knowledge, offering insights into critical connections and interactions within disaster-prone regions. For instance, our experiments demonstrate how TGN emphasizes high-risk upstream-downstream relationships, providing actionable knowledge for localized flood management. The model significantly outperforms traditional GNNs and machine learning methods in accuracy and robustness, achieving superior classification performance across all four disaster categories. Furthermore, the TGN framework is supported by rigorous evaluation metrics, including Precision, Recall, F1-score, and Overall Accuracy, ensuring its reliability in real-world applications.

By combining innovative graph-based modeling with interpretable mechanisms, this study bridges the gap between theoretical advancements and practical disaster management. The proposed approach not only enhances prediction capabilities but also provides an analytical lens for understanding the intricate relationships among flash flood drivers, paving the way for more effective mitigation strategies and informed decision-making. This work underscores the transformative potential of adaptive graph neural networks in addressing complex environmental challenges and advancing the state of flood risk assessment.

How to cite: Wang, H., Xuan, Y., Zhang, Z., Antunes Meira, M., Li, Q., and Liu, C.: A Transformer-based Graph Network for Flash Flood Disaster Classification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2646, 2025.

EGU25-2660 | Posters virtual | VPS9

 Transformed Technique for Applying the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to Block Minima 

Sanghoo Yoon and Thanawan Prahadchai

This study proposes a novel approach for analyzing block minima data within the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) framework by incorporating the Negative Power Transformation (NPT). The NPT method, which includes a hyper-parameter to adjust data bounds (effectively reducing to the Reciprocal Transformation (RT) when the hyper-parameter is 1), aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of long-term return level (RL) estimations. Traditional transformation methods often exhibit limitations in accurately predicting RLs for extended return periods. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the NPT-GEVD method outperforms conventional approaches in terms of bias, standard error (SE), and root mean square error (RMSE) for return periods of 25, 50, and 100 years. Notably, the NPT-GEVD consistently provides reliable RL estimates across various parameterizations and sample sizes, particularly when using L-moments for estimation with smaller datasets. The efficacy of the NPT-GEVD method is further validated through its application to inter-arrival time (IAT) rainfall data from South Korea. The analysis revealed that RLs for detecting the time to exceed hourly cumulative rainfall thresholds of 60 mm, 90 mm, and 110 mm varied significantly across locations, ranging from 30 minutes to over 4 hours. This research underscores the significance of advanced transformation techniques in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of environmental risk assessments. The NPT-GEVD method offers valuable insights for improving flood prediction and mitigation strategies in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Yoon, S. and Prahadchai, T.:  Transformed Technique for Applying the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to Block Minima, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2660, 2025.

EGU25-2662 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

 A Diversity Driven Deep Convolutional Network for Enhanced Coastal Urban Flood Risk Assessment 

Bowei Zeng, Guoru Huang, and Ge Yang

Climate change and urbanization intensify urban pluvial flooding, posing significant threats to human lives and infrastructure. This situation underscores the critical need for efficient and accurate predictive systems for disaster prevention and mitigation. Traditional flood simulation models, while precise, are often limited by their data-intensive requirements and substantial computational complexity. In contrast, deep learning (DL) models show their advantages by high efficiency and powerful capability in processing large-scale non-linear data, making them highly appropriate for modeling complex flood dynamics. Consequently, integrating DL with conventional urban flood models has emerged as a promising strategy to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of flood prediction systems. However, existing research predominantly focuses on inland flooding, with limited attention to the role of tidal levels in coastal cities, which can significantly impact the accuracy of urban flood simulations.
To bridge the GAP, this study proposes an innovative hybrid DL approach that explores spatial and temporal data to improve the accuracy and efficiency of urban flood simulations, particularly in coastal areas. Simulation results from physics-based urban flood models are utilized to construct a comprehensive database for the DL model. Afterwards, patch-size and random sampling methods are employed to construct the sample dataset for training DL models. The convolutional neural network (CNN)-based data-driven urban pluvial flood model can simulate floods using topographic, rainfall, and tidal data, enabling the simulation of large urban areas within seconds. Incorporating diverse input data and advanced network architectures enhances model robustness and generalization across various scales and rainfall events. Fusion models that combine the strengths of DL and traditional hydrological models demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and computational efficiency by integrating tidal data and other environmental factors. Consequently, these hybrid models hold significant potential for integration into early warning systems and supporting decision-making processes in urban flood risk management.

How to cite: Zeng, B., Huang, G., and Yang, G.:  A Diversity Driven Deep Convolutional Network for Enhanced Coastal Urban Flood Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2662, 2025.

EGU25-2663 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Spatial and Temporal Extreme Modeling of Daily Maximum Precipitation Based on a Generalized Additive Model 

Bugeon Lee, Yeongeun Hwang, and Sanghoo Yoon

South Korea experiences significant regional variation in precipitation due to its unique topographical features. Over the years, the intensification of summer rainfall concentration has led to recurring damage from floods and torrential downpours. To mitigate such impacts, the Korea Meteorological Administration monitors precipitation using observed data from weather stations and estimated values for non-observed locations. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is commonly employed to model annual maximum precipitation, enabling the calculation of return levels that serve as foundational data for flood prevention. This study aims to estimate the spatially generalized additive GEV distribution of daily maximum precipitation using data from 54 Automatic Synoptic Observation System (ASOS) stations between 1972 and 2024. Spatial elements (latitude, longitude, altitude) and temporal elements (year) were incorporated into the model. The location, scale, and shape parameters of the GEV distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood method, with smoothing functions accounting for spatial and temporal factors. The results indicate that the location and scale parameters, influenced by latitude and longitude, are relatively lower in central regions, while the shape parameter, influenced by altitude, shows similar trends. Furthermore, return levels for 50-year and 100-year return periods are notably higher in mountainous regions. Goodness-of-fit tests, such as the Anderson-Darling test, were performed on the GEV distributions of 53 ASOS stations, excluding one. However, 12 stations located in island regions, high-altitude areas, or regions affected by typhoons exhibited distributions that were difficult to explain spatially. These findings are expected to aid in the development of efficient water resource management strategies and regional flood prevention measures based on the distribution characteristics of precipitation.

How to cite: Lee, B., Hwang, Y., and Yoon, S.: Spatial and Temporal Extreme Modeling of Daily Maximum Precipitation Based on a Generalized Additive Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2663, 2025.

EGU25-3504 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Asset-based Dynamic Flood Risk Assessment: Case Study of London Downtown 

Vahid Bakhtiari and Farzad Piadeh

Asset-based Dynamic Flood Risk Assessment: Case Study of London Downtown

Flooding poses significant risks to urban centres, with particular challenges faced by business hubs where disruptions can have devastating consequences on national and global economies [1]. Business hubs are the lifeblood of national and global economies. During flood events, businesspeople encounter disruptions that not only obstruct daily operations but also ripple through supply chains and financial systems [2-3]. This study emphasises the importance of protecting critical assets in Downtown London, a vital business hub, to mitigate economic and social impacts during floods. Through a watershed-based approach, Downtown London, a vibrant business hub with numerous critical assets, has been selected as the case study area. The district contains key commercial buildings and infrastructure that are vital to economic and social continuity. Using Digimap and Verisk, essential commercial buildings and critical assets are pinpointed based on their usage and significance. These tools facilitate generating an accurate map of assets requiring priority attention during flood events.

The proposed decision support system (DSS) is developed to aid risk management authorities, including policy-makers, decision-makers, and technical staff. The system operates on two key bases. Real-time population density data for critical assets is obtained using Google API. This data helps evaluate the human vulnerability component during flood scenarios. A flood forecasting system is integrated to predict water levels at 15-minute intervals for the coming hours. This system provides granular and actionable insights into evolving flood conditions. For each critical asset, two risk values are computed: one based on population density and another on forecasted water levels. These values are combined to derive a dynamic risk level for each time step, enabling authorities to respond effectively. The integration of real-time data and predictive modeling in the DSS offers a comprehensive framework for flood risk assessment. By prioritising critical assets based on dynamic risk levels, authorities can implement targeted preparedness and response measures such as early warnings and evacuation plans. This approach ensures both human safety and economic resilience. The findings have demonstrated the feasibility of applying real-time data and cutting-edge modeling to enhance urban flood resilience. By combining flood risk maps, real-time population density, and a comprehensive prioritisation framework, this approach provides a promising tool for urban planners and emergency responders to protect critical business assets and ensure economic continuity during flood events.

References

[1] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K. and Kapelan, Z. (2023). A critical review for the application of cutting-edge digital visualisation technologies for effective urban flood risk management. Sustainable Cities and Society, p.104958.

[2] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Chen, A.S. and Behzadian, K. (2024). Stakeholder analysis in the application of cutting-edge digital visualisation technologies for urban flood risk management: A critical review. Expert Systems with Applications, 236, p.121426.

[3] Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K. and Alani, A.M. (2022). A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 607, p.127476.

How to cite: Bakhtiari, V. and Piadeh, F.: Asset-based Dynamic Flood Risk Assessment: Case Study of London Downtown, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3504, 2025.

EGU25-3526 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Community-based flood early warning system: Current practice and Future directions 

Arghavan Panahi, Nafiseh Karkhaneh, and Farzad Piadeh

Social media applications have emerged as reliable communication channels, especially when traditional methods falter [1]. Their integration into emergency management presents significant advantages, including enhanced situational awareness during unfolding events, rapid dissemination of news and alerts to broader audiences, and improved coordination among decision-makers and stakeholders [2]. Both remote sensing and social media data offer distinct advantages in large-scale flood monitoring and near-real-time flood monitoring [3]. To better understand these advantages and challenges, a comprehensive review and analysis of the literature on the application of social media in this field was conducted.  Social media facilitates participatory and collaborative structures, enabling collective knowledge-building in public information and warning systems. To realise this vision, the authors examined, 73 studies conducted from 2014 to 2024 to systematically evaluate the current literature surrounding communication on social media and the latest research in social media informatics related to disasters. This review identified key challenges within existing studies. The articles included 23 related to pluvial floods, 12 related to fluvial floods, 17 related to storm floods and 21 paper that were unspecified The majority of the studies were conducted in China, followed by the United States. Various software platforms, including Twitter, YouTube, and other social media networks, were analysed. Data extraction from these platforms was performed using Python programming. The study periods ranged from 1 to 3,650 days. These findings serve as guidance for researchers examining the relationship between social media and disaster management. They aim to develop the use of social networks during disasters, analyse patterns, and create programming to identify best practices for utilising social media in times of crisis. In the future, a mapping framework and tool can be developed to automatically extract information from social media through text and image analysis. By integrating this data with other available information sources, it will be possible to generate more accurate inundation maps in real-time. It is essential to recognise that information about floods obtained from social media may be incomplete during communication interruptions. To address this issue, future research should prioritise integrating big data from urban Internet of Things networks and improving communication infrastructure repairs. By adopting this strategy, we can collect more comprehensive disaster information to enhance flood emergency response effectiveness.

References

[1] Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K. and Alani, A.M. (2022). A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 607, p.127476.

[2] Piadeh, F., Ahmadi, M., Behzadian, K. (2020). A Novel Planning Policy Framework for the Recognition of Responsible Stakeholders in the of Industrial Wastewater Reuse Projects. Journal of Water Policy, 24 (9), pp. 1541–1558.

[3] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Chen, A., Behzadian, K. (2024). Stakeholder Analysis in the Application of Cutting-Edge Digital Visualisation Technologies for Urban Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review. Expert Systems with Applications, p.121426.

How to cite: Panahi, A., Karkhaneh, N., and Piadeh, F.: Community-based flood early warning system: Current practice and Future directions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3526, 2025.

EGU25-3543 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Real-time Transportation-Based Flood Warning System: A Case Study in Downtown London 

Reza Naghedi, Farzad Piadeh, Xiao Huang, and Meiliu Wu

Flooding has posed a significant challenge to urban infrastructure, necessitating effective and real-time risk management strategies [1]. One of the most devastating impacts is on urban transportation, where disruption can lead to significant economic losses or even human casualties [2-3]. This study has focused on the key financial and commercial areas in downtown London, where an innovative system has been developed to integrate real-time flood risk forecasting with traffic data visualisation and dynamic decision support for emergency response and resource allocation. First, with access to the Google Maps API, real-time and forecast traffic data have been collected for local streets. Then, these datasets can facilitate a 15-minute resolution forecast for the next 8 hours, enabling an in-depth understanding of traffic flow patterns during flood events. Furthermore, by employing flood forecasting measures on these real-time datasets, streets at risk of inundation can be identified faster, with their traffic conditions assessed accordingly.

A key aspect of this study is to consider different factors dynamically for weighting and prioritising streets. On one hand, pre-existing factors such as road hierarchy, connectivity, access to critical facilities, land use, infrastructure vulnerability, and proximity to evacuation zones are converted into dynamic factors by attaching a temporal variable to these pre-existing factors. On the other hand, real-time dynamic ones include flood depth, traffic congestion, accessibility for emergency services, and community needs reported. The integration of all these factors leads to the development of a transportation-based decision support system (TBDSS) tailored to urban flood management. The TBDSS has facilitated the allocation of emergency resources, prioritisation of street reopening, and planning for evacuation or relief operations. For instance, streets connecting to hospitals or shelters have been given higher priority, while those serving industrial or low-density areas have been weighted lower. As such, our proposed system can dynamically adjust priorities based on evolving flood and traffic conditions, ensuring optimal response strategies.

The findings have demonstrated the feasibility of leveraging real-time data and advanced modeling to enhance urban flood resilience. By combining flood risk maps, traffic forecasts, and a comprehensive prioritisation framework, this approach has provided a promising tool for urban planners and emergency responders.

[1] Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K., Alani, A. (2022). A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 607, p.127476.

[2] Gao, G., Ye, X., Li, S., Huang, X., Ning, H., Retchless, D., Li, Z. (2024). Exploring flood mitigation governance by estimating first-floor elevation via deep learning and google street view in coastal Texas. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 51(2), 296-313.

[3] Naghedi, S. N., Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K., and Hemmati, M.: Unveiling the Interplay: Flood Impacts on Transportation, Vulnerable Communities, and Early Warning Systems, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13189, 2024.

How to cite: Naghedi, R., Piadeh, F., Huang, X., and Wu, M.: Real-time Transportation-Based Flood Warning System: A Case Study in Downtown London, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3543, 2025.

EGU25-3970 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Estimating critical rainfall for flash flood warning systems using integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling 

Konstantinos Papoulakos, Georgios Mitsopoulos, Evangelos Baltas, and Anastasios I. Stamou

Flash floods are one of the most severe natural hazards worldwide; they can occur within a few minutes or hours, and can move at high flow velocities, striking with violence and little warning. Early warning of flash floods is extremely important for vital risk mitigation and requires the knowledge of the critical rainfall producing flooding that is typically considered as “warning index”. The small spatial and temporal scales at which flash floods occur make the prediction of critical rainfall challenging, particularly in data-poor environments, where high-resolution weather models and advanced monitoring networks may not be available.

In this research, we present a methodology to estimate the critical rainfall for flash flooding based on an integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model. The model is applied in the Lilantas River catchment in Evia, Greece, considering a relatively large number of rainfall and soil moisture conditions scenario combinations in order to (1) determine inflow hydrographs used as boundary conditions for the hydrodynamic model and (2) calculate the distribution of “critical hazard” across the cells of the two-dimensional (2D) computational domain. In the present work, we define critical hazard combining the main hydrodynamic characteristics that are water depth and flow velocity, and we import all calculated “critical hazard” values into a GIS-based database.

Key findings include maximum peak discharges from all simulated scenarios, allowing a sensitivity analysis of varying Curve Number and soil moisture conditions, as well as the effects of rainfall duration and intensity combinations on flood responses. Furthermore, based on the calculated critical hazard, estimates of critical rainfall values for the selected study area are provided, along with an example of the flood warning system’s operation.

How to cite: Papoulakos, K., Mitsopoulos, G., Baltas, E., and Stamou, A. I.: Estimating critical rainfall for flash flood warning systems using integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3970, 2025.

EGU25-6708 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Using Unsupervised Learning to Explore Landslides Driving Factors from Topographic and Hydrological Catchment Features 

Marcela Antunes Meira, Yunqing Xuan, and Han Wang

Landslides are a widespread geohazard with significant impacts on lives and economies worldwide. While past research has primarily emphasized creating inventories, and analysing spatial and temporal patterns, the objective of this study is to explore the relationship between landslides events taken place in different catchments using only topographical and physical attributes from the disasters’ areas. The aim is to improve the understanding of the occurrence and susceptibility of such events, as well as the possible similarities between the events and the catchments. To this end, multicollinearity and mutual information analysis were performed to identify both linear and nonlinear relationships between the variables, assisting on the identification of the most relevant driving factors to historical landslides in the study area. Furthermore, the events were grouped using 5 different unsupervised clustering techniques, KMeans, Mean Shift, DBSCAN, Hierarchical and Spectral Custering, to analyse the relationship between landslides taken place in different catchments and their underlying driving forces. Clustering evaluation metrics, i.e. Silhouette Score, Davies-Bouldin Index, and Calinski-Harabasz Index, were used assess the performance of these algorithms. The results show that, for a preliminary study and providing insights on the relevance of driving factors and similarities between events, unsupervised learning proves to be an important tool. Nevertheless, to find more applicable and in-depth associations between extreme disasters and its driving factors, more robust machine learning techniques can and should be used.

How to cite: Antunes Meira, M., Xuan, Y., and Wang, H.: Using Unsupervised Learning to Explore Landslides Driving Factors from Topographic and Hydrological Catchment Features, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6708, 2025.

EGU25-7150 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Fusion of Stacked Generalization and Predictor Selection Technique for Downscaling in Drought Monitoring: A Case Study in a Semi-Arid Area 

Amirhossein Mirdarsoltany, Leila Rahimi, Carl Anderson, and Thomas Graf

Drought is one of the most severe climate-induced phenomena; with significant impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Drought monitoring under climate change scenarios becomes crucial, particularly in regions vulnerable to water scarcity, such as semi-arid areas in Iran. Although Global Climate Models (GCMs) contain coarse spatial resolutions, they provide valuable insights in better assessing the variability of drought characteristics—such as duration, severity, and intensity in the future. To achieve this aim, downscaling of climate variables as triggers of droughts is required to monitor drought in local scale. Latyan region in Iran, as an important area to supply water, is a critical place based on its climate, drought event occurrences, and water demand and supply stress. This study tried to accurately downscale and bias-correct the climate variables utilizing the latest CMIP6 models (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-ESM1, CanESM5, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MIROC6) and AI techniques in the case study. This research employs a predictor selection technique in conjunction with a stack generalization model to improve the accuracy of the downscaling process. After careful examination of predictors, surface temperature, precipitation, and surface air pressure have been used along with annual cycles for training four machine learning models including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest and Stack Generalization (SG) models for the sake of downscaling. Results showed that MIROC6 model is the best model according to all downscaling methods. In addition, among MLs, stacked generalization model improved the statistical metrics considerably with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.64, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 1051.3, and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.68 for MIROC6 model. Selection of the proper GCM and downscaling method can help decision-makers take proper measures against drought to reduce drought impacts.

How to cite: Mirdarsoltany, A., Rahimi, L., Anderson, C., and Graf, T.: Fusion of Stacked Generalization and Predictor Selection Technique for Downscaling in Drought Monitoring: A Case Study in a Semi-Arid Area, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7150, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7150, 2025.

EGU25-7192 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Drivers of Soil Moisture Dynamics over Continental United States 

Mashrekur Rahman, Menberu Meles, Scott Bradford, and Grey Nearing

Soil moisture dynamics play a crucial role in hydrological processes, influencing runoff generation, drought stress, and water management. To better understand the complex drivers of soil moisture dynamics, we present a novel hybrid architecture integrating Vision Transformers (ViT), spatial attention mechanisms, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. This architecture enables investigation of controlling factors across diverse landscapes in the Continental United States (CONUS) by incorporating spatial awareness at two levels: through ViT's ability to capture spatial patterns and through explicit spatial attention between neighboring stations. We leverage a comprehensive set of environmental data sources, including in-situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), ERA5 climate reanalysis, USGS elevation products, MODIS land cover, and SoilGrids soil characteristics. Initial results from a one-year training period and three-month testing period (R² = 0.73, 0.72, 0.73 for 24h, 48h, and 72h predictions) reveal important insights about the hierarchical importance of different drivers across prediction windows. Our preliminary analysis shows that static physical properties (particularly slope and soil structure) and hydraulic characteristics maintain high importance across temporal scales, while the influence of dynamic weather features varies with prediction horizon. The model's dual spatial attention mechanisms and temporal components enable discovery of both local and regional controls on soil moisture dynamics. The identified feature importance hierarchies provide initial insights into the spatiotemporal controls on soil moisture dynamics across CONUS. Ongoing work extends the training to the full temporal extent of available data to develop a more comprehensive understanding of these driving factors. This approach advances our fundamental understanding of soil moisture processes at continental scales, with implications for a future tool for land characterization and ecological site classification.

How to cite: Rahman, M., Meles, M., Bradford, S., and Nearing, G.: Drivers of Soil Moisture Dynamics over Continental United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7192, 2025.

Accurately predicting Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) has become increasingly crucial. It holds particular significance for managing water resources in regions heavily reliant on snowmelt. The present study introduces an integrated Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model that incorporates extreme heat events and diverse climate change projections to generate detailed SWE distribution maps and long-term trend analyses. By including lagged SWE observations and climate indicators, the model captures the intricate temporal dynamics of snowfall accumulation and melt processes, thereby improving forecast accuracy and stability.

Previous studies indicate that areas dependent on seasonal snowpack face accelerated snowmelt timing and reduced water availability under rising temperatures. These shifts can exert critical impacts on agricultural irrigation, ecosystem habitats, and water allocation strategies, highlighting the importance of robust forecasting tools for proactive resource management. Furthermore, the development of comprehensive risk maps pinpoints high-risk hotspots where anticipated temperature increases coincide with substantial changes in SWE and snowmelt patterns. These zones are prime candidates for early adaptation measures, including infrastructure upgrades and policy interventions aimed at mitigating potential water shortages.

As global warming persists, this modeling framework provides stakeholders, policymakers, and local communities with valuable insights into emerging water resource risks. The integration of climate change scenarios into the LSTM model underscores the necessity of forward-looking research that can inform both short-term operations and long-term planning. Ultimately, this approach lays the groundwork for crafting sustainable adaptation strategies, preserving agricultural output, protecting ecosystems, and ensuring water security in regions where snowmelt is pivotal to resource availability.

How to cite: Tsang, P. J. and Tsai, W. P.: Risk Mapping and Adaptation Strategies: Enhancing SWE Predictions with an LSTM Model for Snowmelt-Dependent Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7201, 2025.

EGU25-10531 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Climate and catchment influences on streamflows in Brazilian watersheds 

Abderraman Brandão, Admin Husic, André Almagro, Dimaghi Schwamback, and Paulo Oliveira

South America holds vast freshwater reserves, contributing to its global prominence across various sectors. Understanding streamflows at different levels—minimum flows for ecosystem maintenance, mean flows for hydropower and navigation, and high flows associated with floods—is critical for ensuring societal and ecological resilience. These streamflows are influenced by changes in catchment characteristics and climate change, yet the relationship between climate and catchment drivers with streamflows, particularly in tropical regions, remains poorly understood. Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) offer promising avenues for addressing these gaps by linking observational data to potential causal inference. Here, we investigated the climatic and catchment drivers influencing five streamflow types (Q1, Q5, Qmean, Q95 and Q99) across 735 Brazilian watersheds using XAI approaches. Random Forest models were trained with 16 most important attributes for each streamflow type. SHapley Additive exPlanations were applied to explain the directionality and magnitude of each driver's impact, while inflection points were delineated to capture critical thresholds for streamflow changes. Results showed the aridity index (potential evapotranspiration/precipitation) as the most impactful predictor globally, likely due to its role in long-term water balance. However, for Q99, soil sand content emerges as the dominant factor, showing that catchment characteristics rival climatic factors in importance for rare streamflow events. The analysis highlighted critical thresholds, such as reductions in streamflow when the aridity index exceeds 1.30 and potential declines in streamflow for soil carbon content below 30%, likely due to reduced water infiltration and storage capacity. Similarly, forest cover below 40% potentially increases streamflows, possibly due to reduced evapotranspiration and water retention in soils. Regional differences were also observed: in central Brazil, land cover and land use, and topography potential response for decreased the low streamflows, while in the south and northeast, climatic factors such as aridity and precipitation seasonality control the potential decreases. Rare high events (Q99) in the south this watershed scale attributes height above the nearest, permeability and porosity potential increases the magnitude of events. These findings highlight that, while climatic attributes dominate streamflow relationships at a national scale, regional variations underscore the importance of catchment characteristics. This study demonstrates how data-driven models have the potential to capture the complex interplay between climatic and catchment attributes, linking these factors to streamflow dynamics.

How to cite: Brandão, A., Husic, A., Almagro, A., Schwamback, D., and Oliveira, P.: Climate and catchment influences on streamflows in Brazilian watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10531, 2025.

EGU25-13200 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

A NeuralFAO56 Python Package for data-driven Irrigation Demand Calculation 

Adarsha Neupane and Vidya Samadi

The accurate estimation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), root zone soil moisture depletion, and irrigation demands is critical for optimizing water resource management and enhancing sustainability in precision agriculture. The FAO-56 model serves as a foundational tool for these predictions; however, its conventional workflow necessitates the manual acquisition of essential inputs such as climatic data and soil moisture from disparate external sources. This process can be time-intensive, cost-prohibitive, and susceptible to human error. Furthermore, the deterministic nature of FAO56 can lead to inaccuracies if reference evapotranspiration and crop coefficients are not meticulously estimated. This study introduces NeuralFAO56, a Python package that integrates advanced machine learning models and real-time data acquisition with the FAO-56 framework to automate and improve the estimation of ETc and irrigation demands. By leveraging application programming interfaces (APIs) to automatically collect real-time climatic data from meteorological stations and NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), NeuralFAO56 dynamically updates model inputs. The package incorporates a range of machine learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and transformer architectures, to generate data-driven ETc estimations, thereby enhancing the accuracy and adaptability of irrigation predictions. NeuralFAO56 is designed with a modular architecture, enabling users to customize its functionalities for diverse agro-hydrological contexts. This tool provides a robust, user-friendly platform for researchers, water resource managers, and agricultural professionals, facilitating intelligent irrigation decision-making, improving water-use efficiency, and contributing to sustainable agricultural practices.

How to cite: Neupane, A. and Samadi, V.: A NeuralFAO56 Python Package for data-driven Irrigation Demand Calculation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13200, 2025.

EGU25-13991 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Ensemble Approach for Hydrological Forecasting Based on Recurrent Neural Networks and Complex Networks 

Angelica Caseri, Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues, and Matheus Victal Cerqueira

The São Francisco River Basin is crucial for Brazil’s agriculture, hydropower, and water security. However, climate change has intensified challenges like reduced water flow and frequent extreme events, threatening its socio-economic sustainability. This study aims to forecast flow in the São Francisco River Basin, enabling proactive decision-making to mitigate risks associated with both droughts and floods. To address these challenges, this study propose a novel methodology based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and complex network techniques. The method creates new features and assigns importance weights to enhance the algorithm’s ability to generate probabilistic flow forecast. The results are promising, demonstrating the method’s ability to deliver accurate probabilistic forecasts. This research can support risk mitigation strategies and improve water resource management in the São Francisco Basin. Additionally, the proposed framework is scalable, offering potential applications to other critical watersheds facing similar challenges

How to cite: Caseri, A., Aparecido Rodrigues, F., and Victal Cerqueira, M.: Ensemble Approach for Hydrological Forecasting Based on Recurrent Neural Networks and Complex Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13991, 2025.

EGU25-14431 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Data-Driven Flood Forecasting Using ANN: A Resource-Efficient Approach for High-Risk Regions 

Purnima Das and Kazi Mushfique Mohib

Flood forecasting is essential for hydrological assessment and catastrophe mitigation, particularly in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh. Nonetheless, the direct measurement of water levels (WL) and discharge frequently encounters obstacles related to time, technological limits, and economical constraints. This study posits that flood levels can be accurately predicted utilising accessible data during flood events, employing a trained Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. The complexity of hydrological systems, exacerbated by transboundary contributions from significant rivers like the Brahmaputra-Jamuna, hinders accurate forecasting. To tackle these problems, the study employed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), a flexible and data-driven methodology adept at modelling non-linear relationships, to predict flood water levels with a lead time of up to seven days in Sirajganj, a district particularly susceptible to river flooding and bank erosion. Daily Data on water levels and rainfall were collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (2002–2015) for the monsoon season (May–October) were analysed, utilising information from four rainfall stations and six water level stations located 62–237 km upstream. The ANN model, employing a Sigmoid activation function with one to three hidden layers, indicated that augmenting the number of hidden layers provided only negligible enhancements in performance. Performance metrics, such as the goodness-of-fit (R²: 0.985–0.554), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE: 0.024–0.617), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE: 0.087–0.604), demonstrated a marginal improvement when rainfall and water level data were combined. This study highlights the efficacy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in tackling hydrological prediction issues, confirming its ability to utilise readily accessible datasets to provide reliable and effective flood forecasts, thus aiding disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts in resource-limited areas such as Bangladesh.

How to cite: Das, P. and Mohib, K. M.: Data-Driven Flood Forecasting Using ANN: A Resource-Efficient Approach for High-Risk Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14431, 2025.

EGU25-15731 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Data-driven models for streamflow regionalization in Krishna River Basin, India 

Sukhsehaj Kaur and Sagar Chavan

Predicting streamflow in ungauged basins remains a significant challenge in hydrological studies. In recent years, data-driven models have been shown to outperform traditional physics-based models in streamflow prediction for ungauged catchments. However, few studies have examined the potential of such models for predicting streamflow in ungauged basins within India. This study aims to evaluate the performance of two machine learning models, namely Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF), alongside two deep learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bi-LSTM, in the context of streamflow regionalization within the Krishna River Basin in India. Each prediction model is trained using meteorological variables as input features, with streamflow as the output variable. K-means clustering is employed to group selected catchments (based on data availability) into an optimum number of clusters based on spatial proximity and physical similarity. It is assumed that catchments within a cluster share homogeneous characteristics. Regionalization is achieved by sharing model parameters across catchments within the same cluster. For each cluster, one gauged catchment is designated as the donor catchment, while the others are treated as pseudo-ungauged. Each proposed model is trained and tested using the meteorological inputs and streamflow data available at the gauged donor catchment. The trained model for each cluster is then transferred to the remaining receptor catchments within the cluster, where the meteorological variables corresponding to each ungauged catchment are used as inputs. The performance of the models in ungauged catchments is rigorously evaluated by comparing the simulated streamflow against observed streamflow using metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R²), and Percentage Bias (PBIAS). This study highlights the advantages of utilizing data-driven methods for streamflow prediction in both gauged and ungauged basins, particularly due to their ability to capture complex, non-linear relationships between meteorological inputs and streamflow generation. The findings of this study are expected to be instrumental in water resources planning and management, flood assessment, and the design of hydraulic structures in the Krishna River Basin.

How to cite: Kaur, S. and Chavan, S.: Data-driven models for streamflow regionalization in Krishna River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15731, 2025.

EGU25-16242 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Evaluating the Three-Cornered Hat Method for Satellite Precipitation Data Fusion and its Influence on Runoff Forecasting 

Patricio Luna-Abril, Paul Muñoz, Esteban Samaniego, David F. Muñoz, María José Merizalde, and Rolando Célleri

Runoff forecasting remains a critical challenge in many basins worldwide, particularly those featuring a complex topography, where the scarcity of hydrometeorological data is a prevalent challenge. Data fusion offers a promising alternative to conventional single-source data modelling, which often fails to capture the full spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. By integrating multiple sources, data fusion seeks to generate enhanced satellite precipitation datasets, essential for data-driven runoff forecasting models. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Three-Cornered Hat (TCH) method for fusing satellite precipitation products (SPPs) and its influence on the performance of a Random Forest-based runoff forecasting model.

Three scenarios were evaluated: (i) a TCH-fused dataset combining three SPPs: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM – Early Run (IMERG-ER), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks – Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation – Near Real Time (GSMaP-NRT); (ii) an individual SPP (IMERG-ER); and (iii) an already fused benchmark product, the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP). All scenarios performed comparably for lead times of 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours, with MSWEP slightly outperforming across Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, Kling-Gupta Efficiency, and Root Mean Square Error metrics. However, TCH demonstrated better bias reduction as reflected by the Percent Bias metric.

A key limitation of the fusion method was identified at hourly scales, where statistical dependence arises during periods with no precipitation over the basin, hindering the effectiveness of TCH. The introduction of a matrix regularization step addressed this issue. This study provides valuable insights for enhancing SPP fusion methods and offers a replicable framework for improving runoff forecasting, particularly in data-scarce regions and other hydrological contexts.

How to cite: Luna-Abril, P., Muñoz, P., Samaniego, E., Muñoz, D. F., Merizalde, M. J., and Célleri, R.: Evaluating the Three-Cornered Hat Method for Satellite Precipitation Data Fusion and its Influence on Runoff Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16242, 2025.

The release of low-temperature water from a reservoir can have negative impacts on downstream fish spawning and crop growth in irrigation areas. Therefore, predicting the discharged water temperature accurately and swiftly is crucial. This study focused on the Pubugou Hydropower Station, a major project situated on the Dadu River in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and evaluated the impacts of meteorological factors and reservoir operational parameters on the released water temperature using Spearman correlation coefficients (R). To predict the discharged water temperature of Pubugou Reservoir, five models were optimized by genetic algorithms including random forests, support vector regression, convolutional neural network, long short-term memory network, and the lightweight gradient boosting machine respectively. The results showed that: (1)The dew point temperature exhibited the highest correlation with discharged water temperature (R = 0.89), However, the correlation coefficient between wind speed, cloud cover, solar radiation, dam front water level, and discharge water temperature was not found to be 0.4. (2) All the five models optimized by genetic algorithms performed well on the training set, especially the random forest model (R2 = 0.997). The worst performing model is the long short-term memory network model (R2 = 0.985). (3) In the prediction of discharge water temperature, all models have good fitting effects, with r2 greater than 0.93, average absolute error not greater than 0.662 ℃, and mean square error not greater than 0.852 ℃. Random forest models and lightweight gradient boosting machine models have shown good performance on the most of sample data, with a small residual range, while support vector regression models and convolutional neural network models have smaller maximum residuals. This research indicated that machine learning methods can effectively predict water temperature released from reservoirs, providing more reliable decision support for formulating relevant measures to alleviate the impact of reservoir discharge water temperature.

How to cite: Junguang, C.: Application of Machine Learning in Predicting the Water Temperature Released from Reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18342, 2025.

EGU25-18458 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Can the catchment features influence the performance of the conceptual hydrological and deep learning models? A study using large sample hydrologic data  

Daneti arun sourya, Velpuri manikanta, and Maheswaran rathinasamy

The prior literature on hydrologic model performance is dispersed, encompassing a small number of catchments, different methodology, and rarely linking the results to specific catchment characteristics. This study addresses these constraints by systematically attributing model performance to catchment variables in 671 US catchments, providing a formal framework for determining the best models for specific conditions. Daily streamflow estimation was performed using eight process-based (PB) models and three deep learning (DL) models, with performance measured using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The PB models were tested with a variety of optimization techniques, and the most effective approach for each model was chosen based on the number of catchments that exceeded a predetermined performance threshold. Four models were selected as the top performers based on three performance metrics. Further analyses, such as Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and SHAPley, were used to correlate model performance with catchment variables across all models.
The results showed that PB models (GR4J, HBV, and SACSMA) performed well in catchments with low to medium aridity and a high Q/P ratio, indicating quick hydrologic responses. In contrast, the LSTM-based DL model performed well in medium to high aridity regions but had limits in catchments with rapid precipitation responses and low sand percentages. These findings provide a thorough understanding of the links between model performance and catchment descriptors.

Keywords: Process-based models, Deep learning model, CART analysis, SHAPley analysis, catchment characteristics.

How to cite: sourya, D. A., manikanta, V., and rathinasamy, M.: Can the catchment features influence the performance of the conceptual hydrological and deep learning models? A study using large sample hydrologic data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18458, 2025.

EGU25-18599 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Downscaling MODIS ET using deep learning 

Shailesh Kumar Jha and Vivek Gupta

Knowing evapotranspiration (ET) accurately at fine spatial scales is very important. This would improve understanding hydrological processes and contribute to the advancement of water resource management. In this study, we set a framework based on deep learning to downscale Terra Net Evapotranspiration Gap-Filled 8-Day Global 500m dataset, developed and managed by NASA's Earth Observing System. This approach resulted in a scale enhancement of 20 times. The U-Net architecture was used for this purpose. It incorporated MODIS Land Cover Type 1 (LC Type 1) as an auxiliary variable. This was done to account for land cover changes. The study covered a diverse region that encompasses latitudes 28° to 32°N and longitudes 74° to 78°E. A synthetic design of experiments was utilized to systematically generate and evaluate training data, this ensures robust model performance and reliable downscaling outcomes across the heterogeneous terrain of the study area. Model training, validation, and testing were conducted using the 2001–2014 dataset, 2015–2018, and 2019–2023 dataset, respectively. The model showed excellent performance on the testing dataset. The average PSNR was 34.35 dB and the mean SSIM was 0.8517. The U-Net module effectively downscale and enhance the spatial resolution of ET data. The results show ET's spatial and structural features are well preserved. This study shows how deep learning improves climate data spatial resolution. It provides reliable local hydrological and agricultural resources.

How to cite: Jha, S. K. and Gupta, V.: Downscaling MODIS ET using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18599, 2025.

EGU25-19050 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Application of Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms for identifying critical river confluence in a mountainous watershed. 

Naman Rajouria, Pragati Parajapati, and Sanjeev Kumar Jha

In a mountainous watershed, there are many confluences at which two or more streams join. Due to inaccessible terrain and associated costs, river discharge data is collected only at a few confluences. It is, therefore, important to assess which confluence is critical. By critical, we mean the junction which will create maximum fragmentation in a river network. In this study, we analysed river networks with uneven topography in the Alaknanda River basin, which is vulnerable and prone to geo-hydro hazards. We applied Unsupervised Machine Learning (UML) algorithms such as Isolation Forest, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), and Linear Integer Programming (LIP) to identify the critical confluence locations. We compare our results with the well-established graph-based centrality metrics (Degree centrality, Betweenness centrality, Closeness centrality, and Eigen Vector Centrality). Our results suggest that DBSCAN outperformed other approaches in terms of detecting crucial nodes. We obtained better results using LIP than other techniques except DBSCAN. The outcome of this study will help the Central Water Commission, in deciding which confluence to focus on, and in assessing the locations of new gauges.

Keywords: Critical nodes; Alaknanda Basin; Machine Learning; Hazards

How to cite: Rajouria, N., Parajapati, P., and Jha, S. K.: Application of Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms for identifying critical river confluence in a mountainous watershed., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19050, 2025.

EGU25-19086 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS9

Leveraging machine learning and satellite precipitation data to overcome latency challenges in operational hydrology 

Josué Muñoz, Paul Muñoz, David F. Muñoz, and Rolando Célleri

Accurate and timely representation of spatiotemporal precipitation patterns is critical for monitoring and predicting hydrological extremes, particularly in operational hydrology and early warning systems. In regions with limited in-situ precipitation data, satellite precipitation products (SPPs) offer an accessible solution. However, the latency of these datasets—the delay between data collection and availability—remains a key challenge for real-time applications. This study developed a machine learning model based on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to predict precipitation using low-latency data from GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) bands. The model was applied to the Jubones River basin (3,391 km²) in southern Ecuador, a region characterized by complex terrain and hosting a key hydropower project. Leveraging hourly data over a five-year period, the RF model addressed the five-hour latency of traditional SPPs by generating near-real-time precipitation maps with a latency of only 10 minutes. The model’s performance was evaluated using quantitative and qualitative metrics across temporal scales, demonstrating progressive accuracy improvements with larger temporal aggregations. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values decreased from 0.48 to 0.05 mm/h, while Pearson’s Cross-Correlation (PCC) improved from 0.59 to 0.87 for scales ranging from hourly to monthly. Qualitative metrics, including Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI), further validated the approach. These findings highlight the potential of integrating advanced hydroinformatics techniques with remote sensing for managing hydrological extremes in diverse basins. The study underscores the importance of leveraging low-latency satellite data and machine learning to enhance real-time forecasting and operational hydrology. Future work will focus on refining the model for improved detection of extreme precipitation events and exploring its integration into stakeholder-driven decision-making frameworks.

How to cite: Muñoz, J., Muñoz, P., Muñoz, D. F., and Célleri, R.: Leveraging machine learning and satellite precipitation data to overcome latency challenges in operational hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19086, 2025.

About 90% of extreme precipitation in the midlatitudes can be assoicated with front boundaries. Therefore, it is important to identifiy frontal locations for short term weather forecasting or long-term prediction of precipitation in climatology. Deep learning (DL) refers to machine learning alogrithms that use multiple layers of neural networks to derive features from input data. It is generaly useful to process 2-dimensional image data. One of the potential advantages of employing DL to detect surface weather fronts is that the developed DL based functions can be applied to automatic detection of surface weather fronts for climate models. However, justifications of its applicability on climate models are needed.

In this study, we developed deep learning based methodology to detect surface weather fronts. Specifically, a U-shape convolutional network (U-net) based deep learning model is developed to predict surface weather fronts over Japan and surrounding sea in summer (June, July, and August). We justify the applicability of the deep learning model in predicting surface fronts in summer on outputs from large-scale Global Climate Models (i.e. GCMs) from two aspects. First, the coarse resolution of GCMs (e.g., 1.25 degrees) can capture the general morphological features of surface fronts. Second, models trained in a colder climate are applied to predict fronts in a warmer climate with some decrease in predicted peak frequency of fronts, but the general features of the spatial distribution of fronts can be represented by the deep-learning model predictions. We also see that the locations of peak frequency tend to move slightly more southwesterly in a slant zone within the belt region between 25N to 40N as climate warms in the future.

How to cite: Mao, Y. and Yamada, T.: Applicability of deep learning based detection of surface weather fronts on large scale climate models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19530, 2025.

Understanding and modeling surface and groundwater resources are critical due to the effects of droughts and climate change, especially in semi-arid, arid, or hyper-arid regions. GeoLinkage, developed by Troncoso (2021), facilitates the creation of linkage files for integrated models. These linkage shapefiles act as a communication interface between a surface hydrological domain (D1) and an aquifer domain (D2). The surface domain (D1) comprises nodes and arcs that represent hydrological elements and their relationships, while the aquifer domain (D2) contains geometric elements such as grids or Quadtree diagrams. D1 defines a surface topology (τ1), D2 defines a groundwater topology (τ2), and the linkage file establishes a surface-groundwater topology (τ1-2). This new topology, τ1-2 ,imposes constraints that influence the relationship between τ1 and τ2. For instance, the superposition of elements in τ1-2 should be considered a spatial relationship. Depending on the type of superposed elements, this relationship must be reflected in τ1  or τ2. To enforce these τ1-2 specific restrictions, GeoLinkage has been enhanced with a post-processing module called GeoChecker. This module evaluates the quality of the resulting linkage files. GeoChecker currently performs a superposition check to ensure that overlaps between cells in the linkage file—whether between groundwater and catchments or groundwater and demand sites—are accurately represented as connections in the surface model (WEAP). The aquifer is represented by a MODFLOW model fully linked to the WEAP model. GeoLinkage2.0 and GeoChecker were developed using the tutorial WEAP-MODFLOW model, considered a small model, and were tested in large integrated models, such as the Azapa Valley (3,000 km²) and the Limarí River Basin (12,000 km²), Chile.

How to cite: Sanzana, P., Torga, A., Hitschfeld, N., and Lobos, C.: GeoLinkage2.0 and GeoChecker: Hydroinformatics tools for large and complex hydrological-hydrogeological models using WEAP-MODFLOW. Case Study: Severe drought in the Limarí River Basin, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20678, 2025.

EGU25-20713 | Posters virtual | VPS9 | Highlight

A Digital Twin Framework for Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Multidimensional Prediction: A case study in Iran 

Farhad MohammadZadeh, Hamid Eghbalian, Mohammad Gheibi Gheibi, Reza Yeganeh-Khaksar, Adel Ghazikhani, and Kourosh Behzadian

Digital twins, virtual representations of physical systems, integrate sensor data and predictive models to enable real-time simulation and analysis. They are instrumental in monitoring weather, infrastructure health, and water levels, particularly in flood management. By modeling mitigation techniques, forecasting risks, and enhancing emergency responses, digital twins improve decision-making, reduce economic losses, and enhance public safety in flood-prone areas [1][2]. This study developed a digital twin system to monitor and forecast flood disasters in western Iran. The system combined multidimensional sensor data on temperature, flood flow, vegetation cover, and water levels using an offline databank. Time-series analysis tracked trends, while a linear regression-based predictive model estimated future flood conditions. Threshold values for flood warnings and high-risk alerts were defined using hydrological principles and environmental data [3]. Game theory concepts were employed to optimize flood management strategies by modeling interactions among stakeholders, including authorities, responders, and communities. A non-cooperative game theory approach simulated conflicting objectives, such as minimizing economic losses and optimizing resource allocation. Stable solutions were identified through the Nash equilibrium, ensuring no stakeholder could unilaterally improve outcomes. Visualization dashboards presented time-series data, risk levels, and stakeholder strategies, facilitating informed decision-making. Simulation results demonstrated the system's effectiveness in flood risk assessment. Water levels remained below the 2.5-meter warning threshold but rose significantly during simulated abnormal conditions. In later stages, some areas approached the 3.0-meter high-risk threshold, indicating zones vulnerable to flooding. Flood flow rates frequently exceeded the 40 m³/s threshold, with peaks above 60 m³/s, highlighting the need for continuous flow monitoring. Temperature fluctuations were minimal, consistently below the 25°C threshold, suggesting limited influence on flood risks during the study. However, vegetation cover often fell below the 30% threshold, correlating with increased flood risks and reinforcing its importance in mitigation. The system effectively categorized risk levels, with most instances classified as "Normal" or "Warning." High-risk alerts were concentrated during elevated water levels and flows. This research highlights the potential of digital twins for real-time flood monitoring and collaborative decision-making, providing a robust framework to enhance disaster resilience.

Keywords: Digital Twin; Flood Risk Assessment; Game Theory; Predictive Modeling; Multidimensional Data Analysis.

References

[1] Ghaith, M., Yosri, A., & El-Dakhakhni, W. (2021, May). Digital twin: a city-scale flood imitation framework. Canadian Society of Civil Engineering Annual Conference (pp. 577–588). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore.

[2] Gheibi, M., & Moezzi, R. (2023). A Social-Based Decision Support System for Flood Damage Risk Reduction in European Smart Cities. Quanta Research, 1(2), 27–33.

[3] Kreps, D. M. (1989). Nash equilibrium. In Game Theory (pp. 167–177). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.

How to cite: MohammadZadeh, F., Eghbalian, H., Gheibi, M. G., Yeganeh-Khaksar, R., Ghazikhani, A., and Behzadian, K.: A Digital Twin Framework for Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Multidimensional Prediction: A case study in Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20713, 2025.

EGU25-21199 | Posters virtual | VPS9

Devastating Flooding Despite Early Warning: Lessons Learned from the Nepal and Kenya Floods 

Albert Kettner, Antara Gupta, Mandira Singh Shrestha, Mark Trigg, Sagy Cohen, Laurence Hawker, Lara Prades, Roberto Rudari, Peter Salamon, Beth Tellman, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, and Huan Wu

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate hazards, as emphasized by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, underscore the urgent need for effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Using the devastating floods of September 2024 in Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley, and the April 2024 floods in Kenya’s Nairobi, this study examines the persisting gaps in flood resilience despite early warnings using disaster forensics techniques. The Kathmandu floods, which were triggered by an extreme rainfall event resulting from the convergence of a low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation from the Arabian Sea, caused extensive loss of life, property damage, and economic disruption in the Nakhu Khola watershed, despite timely early warnings issued by the government. In Kenya, a notable gap exists in the warning systems, whether in their issuance, dissemination, or uptake, despite the presence of advanced operational forecasting systems. Encroachment on floodplains, unplanned urbanization, and land-use changes have exacerbated vulnerability, while weak governance and poor enforcement of disaster risk management legislation has left populations and assets exposed. Additionally, risk assessment efforts are scarcely integrated into government plans or those of other stakeholders, highlighting a critical area for improvement in disaster preparedness and management.

Using the UNDRR’s forensic disaster analysis framework, this research investigates the underlying causes, risk drivers, and lessons from these events. The populations most affected are identified, including those living in floodplains, including marginalized communities, and critical infrastructure. Local investments in disaster preparedness are also critically examined for efficacy. Results highlight that while early warnings were disseminated through various channels, gaps in risk communication and community-level preparedness persisted. The findings emphasize the need for education and awareness and integrated approaches to disaster risk management that address root causes such as unplanned urban growth and environmental degradation. Empowering youth and fostering leadership in disaster risk reduction are critical to ensure climate resilient societies of tomorrow. This research contributes actionable insights to reduce vulnerability, enhance preparedness, and minimize losses in future climate hazard events in the Kathmandu Valley and Kenya, as well as similar rapidly urbanizing regions.

How to cite: Kettner, A., Gupta, A., Singh Shrestha, M., Trigg, M., Cohen, S., Hawker, L., Prades, L., Rudari, R., Salamon, P., Tellman, B., Sperna Weiland, F., and Wu, H.: Devastating Flooding Despite Early Warning: Lessons Learned from the Nepal and Kenya Floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21199, 2025.

Analyzing deep soil water use (DSWU) response to precipitation change and its impact on tree physiology is necessary to disentangle tree mortality mechanisms, especially in drylands. In this study, a process-based model parameterized with in-situ measured fine root distribution data for 0-2000 cm and a root-cutting (below 200 cm) numerical experiment were used to explore DSWU strategies across different precipitation years and its contribution to total water consumption, as well as its relationship to tree gas exchange traits in mature apple (Malus pumila Mill) and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) plantations in both a wetter (Changwu, 583 mm) and a drier (Yan’an, 534 mm) sites on China’s Loess Plateau. Results showed that DSWU at 200-2000 cm depth in different precipitation years of both species mainly occurred during the early growing seasons. On average, DSWU contributed 22.9% and 25.1% to the total water consumption of apple trees and black locust, respectively, and its contribution increased to 26.0% and 36.7% in extremely dry years. Moreover, the lack of DSWU significantly decreased (p<0.05) stomatal conductance (by 16.9%, 16.9%, 47.4% and 11.4%, respectively) and photosynthetic rates (by 37.1%, 20.1%, 28.5% and 16.4%, respectively) of Changwu apple trees, Yan’an apple trees, Changwu black locust and Yan’an black locust in extremely dry years. Similar reductions occurred only in Yan’an for both tree species in normal years. In contrast, no significant differences were found in gas exchange traits in extremely wet years. Our results highlight that DSWU is an important strategy for plantations in deep vadose zone region to resist extreme drought.

How to cite: Zhao, X., Shao, X., and Gao, X.: Deep soil water use can compensate drought effect on gas exchange in dry years than in wet years for dryland tree plantations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1681, 2025.

EGU25-2175 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Enhancing PFAS Degradation through Far-UVC Photolysis Coupled with Electrochemical Oxidation and UV-Advanced Reduction Processes 

Marieh Arekhi, Muhammad Fahad Ehsan, and Akram Alshawabkeh

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) represent a significant and persistent threat to water quality worldwide, posing major challenges due to their chemical stability, resistance to conventional treatment methods, and documented health risks. These contaminants, once released, persist in the environment for extended periods and have been detected in drinking water, surface water, groundwater, and even human blood. Conventional remediation techniques, such as granular activated carbon (GAC) adsorption, ion-exchange resins, and reverse osmosis, often struggle with shorter-chain PFAS compounds and merely shift contamination from one medium to another. As climate change intensifies rainfall and extreme weather, PFAS transport through runoff becomes increasingly likely, heightening the need for advanced treatment solutions.

In response to this pressing need, our work investigates an innovative remediation approach employing far-UVC radiation (222 nm) delivered by krypton chloride (KrCl*) excimer lamps. Unlike conventional low-pressure UV (LPUV) systems, which typically emit at 254 nm, or vacuum UV (VUV) systems at 185 nm, far-UVC at 222 nm offers a unique balance of high photon energy and minimal absorption by water. This balance enables deeper penetration into the water matrix and provides the potential for enhanced PFAS photolysis and subsequent defluorination. Preliminary findings indicate that certain PFAS, previously resistant to direct UV photolysis, may be more susceptible under far-UVC irradiation, thereby opening a promising new pathway for their degradation.

While direct photolysis at 222 nm shows considerable promise, integrating far-UVC treatment with electrochemical oxidation (EOP) and UV-advanced reduction processes (UV-ARP) can further enhance PFAS degradation. EOP effectively removes dissolved organic matter (DOM), which often competes with PFAS for reactive species, thus reducing the overall efficiency of PFAS degradation. Meanwhile, UV-ARP generates highly reactive hydrated electrons (eaq) capable of breaking down PFAS. Although adding sulfide ions is one way to produce eaq, applying a sufficiently negative potential at a GAC cathode can also generate eaq without introducing sulfur species. This approach requires careful consideration of competing hydrogen evolution reactions (HER), which may be thermodynamically unfavorable at a GAC cathode. By combining EOP with in situ eaq generation in UV-ARP, PFAS can be more effectively targeted and degraded without adding extra chemicals. This integrated treatment aims to meet or surpass stringent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards, ultimately facilitating the development of a portable, cost-effective, chemical-free, point-of-use water treatment system. Such a system would be especially valuable for communities experiencing environmental vulnerabilities, such as those in Puerto Rico studied by the PROTECT Center at Northeastern University, where limited infrastructure, contaminated water sources, and heightened susceptibility to adverse health outcomes underscore the urgency for sustainable PFAS remediation solutions.

By advancing the understanding of PFAS photolysis under far-UVC radiation and harnessing the combined power of EOP and UV-ARP, this work endeavors to provide an innovative solution. In doing so, it seeks not only to bridge the gap between laboratory research and practical application but also to enhance the resilience of water treatment systems against emerging contaminants and the challenges posed by a changing climate.

How to cite: Arekhi, M., Ehsan, M. F., and Alshawabkeh, A.: Enhancing PFAS Degradation through Far-UVC Photolysis Coupled with Electrochemical Oxidation and UV-Advanced Reduction Processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2175, 2025.

EGU25-2576 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Rainfall Estimation in West Africa: A Performance Comparison of Satellite and Soil Moisture-Derived Products 

Roland Yonaba, Axel Belemtougri, Tazen Fowé, Lawani Adjadi Mounirou, Elias Nkiaka, Moctar Dembele, Komlavi Akpoti, Serigne M'Backé Coly, Mahamadou Koïta, and Harouna Karambiri

Accurately capturing rainfall patterns is crucial for hydrometeorological applications, particularly in regions like Burkina Faso, West Africa, where rainfall variability significantly impacts water resources and agricultural productivity. However, challenges remain in identifying the most reliable rainfall products for such purposes. This research evaluates the effectiveness of satellite precipitation products (SPPs) and soil moisture-derived rainfall products (SM2RPPs) in representing rainfall patterns in Burkina Faso. Results show that SPPs generally perform better than SM2RPPs across daily to annual timescales. An analysis of total bias components highlights that hit biases dominate but are more pronounced in SM2RPPs. Systematic errors contribute significantly to these hit biases, indicating the potential for improvement through bias correction. Wavelet analysis reveals that both SPPs and SM2RPPs capture seasonal and annual rainfall variability effectively. However, all products exhibit limitations in accurately representing extreme rainfall indices, although SPPs demonstrate superior performance compared to SM2RPPs. While SM2RPPs currently underperform relative to SPPs in Burkina Faso, they show promise for hydrometeorological applications and could achieve comparable or improved results with enhanced bias correction techniques.

How to cite: Yonaba, R., Belemtougri, A., Fowé, T., Mounirou, L. A., Nkiaka, E., Dembele, M., Akpoti, K., Coly, S. M., Koïta, M., and Karambiri, H.: Rainfall Estimation in West Africa: A Performance Comparison of Satellite and Soil Moisture-Derived Products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2576, 2025.

EGU25-2730 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Seasonal Changes in Water Columns of Historical Reservoir Lakes in the Upper Harz Mountains (Germany) 

Tanja Schäfer, Elke Bozau, and Alexander Hutwalker

 

Concerning water supply in mountainous regions where surface water plays an important role, the understanding of lake stratification or even hypolimnia can be important for water treatment actions.

The historical dam reservoirs were used for the continuous water supply to the ore mines in the Upper Harz Mountains. The first reservoirs were built in the 16th century. The dam heights reach up to 15 m and the stored water volumes are between 10,000 and 600,000 m3. There are about 70 of such lakes around Clausthal-Zellerfeld. Today only few of them are directly used for drinking water supply in the surrounding communities.

Hydrogeochemical data of the lakes have been investigated for about ten years. The specific electrical conductivity (SEC) of the lakes’ surface water ranges between 30 and 280 µS/cm (Bozau et al., 2015, Schäfer et al. 2024). Three lakes (Kiefhölzer, Langer and Oberer Grumbacher Teich) differing in chemical composition and morphometry (area, mean depth and maximum depth) were selected for the investigation of seasonal changes in the water columns. Samples were taken by boat with a Ruttner sampler. SEC and pH were measured on the boat. The titration for HCO3 was done directly after sampling. The main ions were analyzed by ion chromatography and the trace elements by ICP-MS.

Stratification during summer could be clearly observed in all of the three lakes. The degradation of organic material and accompanying redox reactions are seen in the measured pH, SEC, HCO3-, Fe(II), NO3-, NH4+ and SO42- concentrations. Each lake showed a characteristic temporal and chemical behaviour. The development of an anoxic hypolimnion above the lake sediments was obvious in the two shallower lakes Langer Teich (max. depth ~ 5 m) and Kiefhölzer Teich (max. depth ~ 7 m) as being accompanied by H2S-odor in the water column starting ~ 1 m above sediment.  This feature was absent in the deepest lake Oberer Grumbacher Teich (max. depth ~ 9 m), which also showed weaker increase of SEC and HCO3- in the profile. The aeration of the hypolimnion started in autumn leading to a well mixed, chemically uniform water column. 

 

 

Bozau, E., Licha, T., Stärk, H.-J., Strauch, G., Voss, I., Wiegand, B. (2015): Hydrogeochemische Studien im Harzer Einzugsgebiet der Innerste. Clausthaler Geowissenschaften, 10, 35-46.

Schäfer, T., Bozau, E., and Hutwalker, A.: Reservoir lakes in the Upper Harz Mountains (Germany): GIS Implementation and hydrochemical development, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5085, 2024.

How to cite: Schäfer, T., Bozau, E., and Hutwalker, A.: Seasonal Changes in Water Columns of Historical Reservoir Lakes in the Upper Harz Mountains (Germany), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2730, 2025.

EGU25-4786 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Revising probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates under changing climate  

Jaya Bhatt and Vemavarapu Venkata Srinivas

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is a key input in the design and risk assessment of critical infrastructures such as large dams and nuclear power plants. Traditionally, PMP is computed as a fixed upper bound of the precipitation assuming a stationary climate. However, due to climate change, the stationarity assumption may not remain valid in the future. Limited attempts have been made in the past to develop methods for estimating PMP by accounting for non-stationarity in the related hydroclimatic variables. In view of shortcomings associated with those methods, three new nonstationary models are proposed and their potential in determining PMP in a changing climate is illustrated through application to three major flood-prone river basins in India. In this analysis, historical records of precipitation, surface temperature and relative humidity, and their future projections corresponding to eleven CMIP-6 SSPs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 Shared Socio-economic Pathways) were utilized. The results indicate that PMP estimates obtained using the proposed nonstationary models are significantly higher than those obtained from their underlying conventional stationary model, especially for high-emission scenarios in the near future. The results obtained from this study could be utilized to update historical PMP values and to determine the increase in risk associated with the corresponding probable maximum flood.

How to cite: Bhatt, J. and Srinivas, V. V.: Revising probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates under changing climate , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4786, 2025.

EGU25-6521 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Long-term behavior of syntrophic algal-bacterial biomass in a pilot-scale raceway pond treating domestic wastewater  

Dimitrios Kakavas, Styliani Biliani, and Ioannis Manariotis

The growing need for environmentally friendly wastewater treatment technology has prompted researchers to look into natural alternatives. Among these, algal-bacterial systems have received attention for their capacity to combine biological treatment and biomass production. This study focuses on the use of algal-bacterial flocculent biomass for wastewater treatment in a 400 L pilot-scale raceway pond, with a focus on its potential as a sustainable option for lowering environmental impacts. The synergistic interactions between algae and bacteria in the consortia improve nutrient removal from wastewater, while also providing biomass for future use. The aim was to develop a high-concentration flocculent algal-bacteria biomass. The raceway system was placed in a greenhouse with water temperature 32±8oC for about 230 days. The pilot-scale experiment evaluates treatment efficiency of domestic wastewater in a batch mode procedure.  The removal of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia, nitrate, and total phosphorus was over 95%.  The biomass concentration stabilized at about 4 g/L after 70 days of operation. The implementation of algal-bacteria flocculent processes for the treatment of domestic or source-separated domestic wastewater shows great promise as a low-cost, sustainable, and efficient solution.

How to cite: Kakavas, D., Biliani, S., and Manariotis, I.: Long-term behavior of syntrophic algal-bacterial biomass in a pilot-scale raceway pond treating domestic wastewater , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6521, 2025.

EGU25-6696 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Microcystin concentrations and water quality in three agricultural ponds: A machine learning application 

Jaclyn Smith, Matthew Stocker, Robert Hill, and Yakov Pachepsky

Cyanotoxins in agricultural waters pose a human and animal health risk. These chemical compounds can be transported to nearby crops and soil during irrigation practices; they can remain in the soils for extended periods and be adsorbed by root systems. Additionally, in livestock watering ponds cyanotoxins pose a direct ingestion risk. This work evaluated the performance of the randomForest algorithm in estimating microcystin concentrations from eight in situ water quality measurements at one active livestock water pond (Pond 1) and two working irrigation ponds (Pond 2 and 3) in Georgia, USA. Sampling was performed monthly from June of 2022 to October of 2023. Measurements of microcystin along with eight in situ sensed water quality parameters were used to train and test the machine learning model. The model performed better at Pond 1 (R2 = 0.601, RMSE =3.854) and Pond 2 (R2 = 0.710, RMSE = 2.310) compared to Pond 3 (R2 = 0.436, RMSE = 0.336). Important variables for microcystin prediction differed among the three ponds, temperature and chlorophyll, phycocyanin and turbidity, and temperature and phycocyanin in Ponds 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Separating nearshore and interior samples in Ponds 1 and 2 lead to better predictive capacity of the model in nearshore samples compared with the interior samples. Overall, the random forest algorithm explained 50% to 70% of the microcystin concentration variation in three Georgia agricultural ponds with data from in situ sensing. In situ sensing showed a potential to aid in the water sampling design for microcystin to characterize the spatial variation of concentrations in studied ponds using readily available in situ sensing data.

How to cite: Smith, J., Stocker, M., Hill, R., and Pachepsky, Y.: Microcystin concentrations and water quality in three agricultural ponds: A machine learning application, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6696, 2025.

EGU25-6894 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Water/nitrate fluxes and tranport in deep vadose zone of typical irrigated cropland in North China Plain 

Yanjun Shen, Yucui Zhang, Leilei Min, Lin Wu, Hongjun Li, and Huaihui Li

North China Plain is one of the agricultural region in the world with severe water shortage. Flood irrigation is still the most popular irrigation method in NCP, and have caused very low water use efficiency. Groundwater depletion becomes the most concerned issue for sustainable development. To determine the water & nitrate fluxes is important for better water resouces management. We built up a 48-m in depth of cassion and a 36 lysimeter group for this purpose to study the water budget and water/nitrate movement in the deep vadose zone. In this study, we will present the observation facts using these two facilities to reveal the differences between water transport velocity and celerity in the deep vadose zone of nearly 50 meters. This is the first time to observe the variations or responses of soil potential, moisture, temperature, and electricity conductivity to water inputs from land surface, such as extreme rainfall, directly in the deep vadose zone of 48 meters. We  will also present the fresh observation results from the 36 lysimeters about ET and drainage fluxes of different cropping patterns, with different watering and fertilizing treatments. The latter experiment could provide useful information for improving the water/nutrients management for different cropping systems in NCP, and will be beneficial to sustainable groundwater management at the aspects of quantity and quality. The results of the observatoins using these new facilities is presented at international conference at the first time. We hope it could be interested by the colleagues worldwide. 

How to cite: Shen, Y., Zhang, Y., Min, L., Wu, L., Li, H., and Li, H.: Water/nitrate fluxes and tranport in deep vadose zone of typical irrigated cropland in North China Plain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6894, 2025.

EGU25-7025 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Assessment of climate change-water resources interaction by different models  

Azim Karimnejad, Farkhondeh khorashadi zadeh, and Sanaz Moghim

Climate change significantly impacts water quality and quantity, intensifying extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Rising temperatures can increase humidity and dryness, disrupt the water cycle, cause saltwater intrusion into upstream lakes due to sea-level rise, and reduce dissolved oxygen in rivers, thereby deteriorating freshwater quality. Thus, accurate prediction of key climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, is essential for mitigating detrimental impacts. This study evaluates three modeling approaches, including Process-Based (PB) models, Deep Learning (DL) models, and Process-Based Deep Learning (PBDL) models, to highlight their strengths and limitations.

Our assessment shows that PB models, which are based on physical laws and account for complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and water bodies, require high parameterization and computational simplifications, which can lead to inaccurate results. DL models can uncover complex relationships from large datasets. They are effective in co-predicting variables, simulating General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, optimizing PB models, and filling spatiotemporal data gaps. However, their performance depends on the availability of extensive temporal-spatial data, particularly for extreme events. The other group, PBDL models, known as physics-informed or hybrid models, can integrate the strengths of PB and DL approaches. Indeed, these models consider physical laws, such as mass balance and energy conservation, while leveraging DL's pattern recognition capabilities. Even with limited data, these models achieve superior predictions by combining pre-trained PB model outputs, which reduces computational demands.

Although these methods are used to evaluate (actual) evapotranspiration, snowmelt rate, soil permeability, hydraulic conductivity, and the effect of a warming climate on water temperature and streamflow, the interconnected influences on water systems, especially water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen, heavy metals, nutrients, and water clarity, remain underexplored, presenting a critical research gap. Findings confirm that incorporating simultaneous predictions from DL models with proper variable selection and hyperparameter tuning can further enhance model robustness. Advancing PBDL models through integrating well-calibrated hydrological models, expanding spatiotemporal data coverage, and improving measurement accuracy yields more reliable climate change predictions and bolsters sustainable water resource management strategies.

To identify promising solutions, researchers are encouraged to address the non-stationary behavior of natural systems, considering not only meteorological factors (e.g., wind speed and solar radiation) but also the compound impacts of anthropogenic climate change on water resources. Additionally, selecting appropriate models and coupling them can improve an overall understanding of climate and water system interactions.

How to cite: Karimnejad, A., khorashadi zadeh, F., and Moghim, S.: Assessment of climate change-water resources interaction by different models , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7025, 2025.

EGU25-7313 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Assessing the effectiveness of remote sensing indices for predicting E. coli concentrations in an irrigation pond 

Seokmin Hong, Billie Morgan, Matthew Stocker, Jaclyn Smith, Moon Kim, Kyung Hwa Cho, and Yakov Pachepsky

Escherichia coli (E. coli) is a key marker for monitoring microbial water quality, with significant consequences for both public health and agricultural practices. To address the challenges of traditional water quality assessments, remote sensing offers a promising alternative. In this research, we implemented the random forest (RF) algorithm to forecast E. coli levels in irrigation ponds using three distinct data sources: (1) conventional water quality measurements, (2) multispectral reflectance values from drones, and (3) remote sensing indices derived from these reflectance values. To enhance the model’s accuracy, a linear transformation was applied during postprocessing. The RF model achieved strong performance (R² = 0.74) with conventional water quality variables, while moderate results were obtained using multispectral reflectance values alone (R² = 0.56). The best outcomes were observed when remote sensing indices were used as inputs, yielding an R² of 0.76. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were employed to evaluate the importance of individual variables. Dissolved oxygen, pH, and Chlorophyll-a emerged as critical predictors among water quality parameters. Meanwhile, the visible atmospherically resistant index (VARI) and normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI) were the most significant remote sensing indices. Furthermore, location-based comparisons highlighted differences in the impact of VARI and NDTI between interior and nearshore sampling sites. These findings suggest that remote sensing indices effectively capture water quality features crucial for E. coli persistence. This study underscores the potential of using drone-derived multispectral data to enhance predictions of E. coli concentrations in irrigation ponds.

How to cite: Hong, S., Morgan, B., Stocker, M., Smith, J., Kim, M., Cho, K. H., and Pachepsky, Y.: Assessing the effectiveness of remote sensing indices for predicting E. coli concentrations in an irrigation pond, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7313, 2025.

EGU25-7320 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Fine-scale spatial patterns of antibiotic resistance gene concentrations in irrigation pond water 

Matthew Stocker, Jaclyn Smith, Yakov Pachepsky, Ellen Gabriel, Manan Sharma, and Alan Gutierrez

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in irrigation waters is a major worldwide health issue. Crops irrigated with waters containing antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) or related genes (ARG) can serve as a vector for AMR throughout food supply systems. The current extent of AMR in irrigation waters is poorly understood and even less so for small lentic waters such as farm ponds. The objectives of this work were to characterize the variability of ARG concentrations in an actively used irrigation pond and to determine if stable spatial patterns in the concentration data exist which can be used to inform monitoring designs. Water sampling was conducted on 9 dates between June and September 2023 at 20 locations within an actively used irrigation pond in Maryland, USA. The ARG tetracycline gene tetA was enumerated using dQPCR in all collected samples. Due to the presence of non-detects, the robust regression on ordered statistics (ROS) method was applied to the dataset to impute non-detectable concentrations on each date. Spatial variation of tetA concentrations was date-dependent with coefficients of variation ranging from 97 % to 377 % with an average of 181 %. Concentrations steadily declined throughout the observation period which significantly correlated with increases in water temperature (rs = - 0.738; p = 0.023). Rainfall events throughout the observation period did not result in higher concentrations of tetA in the pond. On a majority of dates, significant outliers in the data were identified according to the extreme studentized deviate test.  The mean relative difference analysis revealed that samples collected at the pond banks contained higher tetA concentrations than those collected in the pond interior. Elevated concentrations of the ARG at bank sites were attributed to on-land activities as well as hydrological conditions within the waterbody. Sampling sites were identified that best represented the spatiotemporal average of the concentration data which is useful if large sample sets cannot be collected. This work is the first to evaluate fine-scale spatial variation of ARG in lentic waters used for irrigation and the results show that the choice of where to sample for ARG enumeration in ponds or lakes should not be made arbitrarily.

How to cite: Stocker, M., Smith, J., Pachepsky, Y., Gabriel, E., Sharma, M., and Gutierrez, A.: Fine-scale spatial patterns of antibiotic resistance gene concentrations in irrigation pond water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7320, 2025.

EGU25-7321 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Modeling fate and transport of indicator microorganisms in small rural watersheds 

Jiye Lee, Dana Harriger, Seokmin Hong, Jaehak Jeong, Andrey Guber, Robert Hill, and Yakov Pachepsky

Modeling is an efficient approach for predicting microbial water quality and suggesting related management practices. Escherichia coli or enterococci concentrations are commonly used to indicate microbial contamination and characterize microbial water quality. Small watersheds provide drainage into first- or second-order creeks, exhibit significant variation in land use, management, and conservation practices. Modeling microbial water quality in the small watersheds can help account for and mitigate the heterogeneity within larger hydrologic response units. A model for microbial water quality should incorporate key hydrologic components such as runoff, in-stream water fluxes, and meteorological inputs such as precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation. Additionally, animal waste management, including the quantity and application schedule, are also important for microbial water quality simulations. The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender is a useful tool for hydrological, meteorological, and management drivers of microbial water quality, as it has been developed for small watersheds. Major microbial fate and transport processes include animal waste deposition, degradation, erosion, survival on soil, release from waste and transport by rainfall or irrigation, and microbial survival and resuspension in water or sediment. These processes can be simplified, for instance, by modeling proportional release of the indicators and animal waste during erosion. We can also use a two-phase survival model for manure and temperature-dependent rate of microbial survival in surface waters. Animal waste aging should also be considered in the microbial model, as daily bacterial survival and erodibility are influenced by it. The microbial module in APEX was used to the headwater watershed of Conococheague Creek in Pennsylvania, USA. The total watershed area is 34321.6 ha, with 15 subareas and the dominant land use is deciduous forest. Three years of hourly stage observations with rating curves and weekly E. coli concentrations at the outlet were available. The primary source of E. coli was animal waste from white-tailed deer, with an average density of 19 deer per square kilometers. Deer population dynamics reflect seasonal changes including fawn births, predation, pre-hunting, and post-hunting population phases. E. coli concentrations at the watershed outlet varied seasonally, ranging from 5 to 500 CFU (100 mL)-1. The model reasonably captured the temporal fluctuations in E. coli concentrations at the outlet. Ongoing improvements to the model include incorporating deer behavior patterns, animal waste preservation in snow, and runoff during snowmelt.

How to cite: Lee, J., Harriger, D., Hong, S., Jeong, J., Guber, A., Hill, R., and Pachepsky, Y.: Modeling fate and transport of indicator microorganisms in small rural watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7321, 2025.

EGU25-9556 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Unravelling Sampling Bias in δ¹³C Isotope Variability in Coffee-Banana Intercropping for Drought Stress Assessment 

Thamires Bernardo, Mariana Vezzone, João Paulo Felizardo, Camila Rodrigues, Waldenia Moura, Luciana Gomes Soares, Hugo Sebastião Sant' Anna Andrade, Carlos Victor Vieira Queiroz, Janice Nakamya, Mathilde Vantyghem, Gerd Dercon, and Roberto Meigikos dos Anjos

Coffee-banana intercropping, widely practiced by smallholder farmers in South America and East Africa, is recognized for its potential to combine sustainability with resilience to climate change. This practice promotes crop diversification, but may also enhance water-use efficiency. However, its effectiveness may vary depending on the local conditions and agricultural practices. The lack of quantitative data on drought stress and the complexity of interactions within coffee-banana intercropping systems pose significant challenges in modelling and optimizing water use efficiency. This study aims to develop and refine innovative methods to assess drought stress in coffee-banana intercropping systems, with a focus on stable carbon isotope values (δ¹³C), leaf temperature, and mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIRS). While stable carbon isotope analysis is a promising tool, its application may face challenges due to factors such as crop size, canopy heterogeneity, banana-coffee canopy overlapping, leaf age, orientation, or position (leaf morphological aspects), leading to variable competition for water and light. These factors affect the way sampling for stable carbon isotope and leaf temperature analysis should be conducted, in addition to physiological differences between coffee genotypes, agronomic practices, and complexities in data interpretation. Sampling and analytical protocols must be adapted to address these factors and their effects, while accounting for leaf morphology and microenvironmental parameters. Initially, we evaluated the influence of these factors on δ¹³C variability in coffee leaf samples, in addition to their correlation with leaf temperature. Samples were collected from a 0.15 hectares experimental farm managed by the Agricultural Research Company of Minas Gerais (EPAMIG) in Brazil, an intercrop of Arabica coffee and Cavendish banana plants at 3.6 a distance apart. Coffee leaves were sampled using a metal puncher and leaf temperature was measured using an infrared thermometer, considering varying levels of sunlight exposure. Ten plants of the Catuaí Vermelho IAC 44 coffee cultivar were randomly selected: five under conventional management (chemical fertilizers) and five under organic management (cattle manure). For each plant, samples were taken at three different heights (Top, Middle and Bottom), three orientations (South, East and West), and two branch sides, including young and mature leaves, resulting in 36 leaves per plant. The poster presents key findings on the variability of δ¹³C isotopes in coffee leaves within a banana-coffee intercropping system and their relationship with leaf temperature under different management practices (organic and conventional). This presentation highlights the observed effects of leaf sampling parameters, such as age, position, and sunlight exposure, on δ¹³C values, as well as the implications for improving drought stress screening methodologies.

How to cite: Bernardo, T., Vezzone, M., Felizardo, J. P., Rodrigues, C., Moura, W., Gomes Soares, L., Sebastião Sant' Anna Andrade, H., Victor Vieira Queiroz, C., Nakamya, J., Vantyghem, M., Dercon, G., and Meigikos dos Anjos, R.: Unravelling Sampling Bias in δ¹³C Isotope Variability in Coffee-Banana Intercropping for Drought Stress Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9556, 2025.

Reducing the carbon footprint of residential buildings has become increasingly crucial for decarbonizing the construction sector globally. Implementing various sustainable practices is essential for attaining carbon neutrality and addressing climate change. Therefore, integrating Green Concrete Materials (GCMs) and Nature-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal (Nb-CDR) strategies represents sustainable solutions for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving a circular economy (CE) in residential buildings. In this regard, the study aims to investigate the potential synergies of sustainable building materials and eco-friendly building systems by utilizing Recycled Aggregate Concrete (RAC), Fly Ash (FA), Green Roof system (GR), and a Green Façade system (GF) as an attempt for reducing CO2 emissions for residential building sector significantly. The Design for Integration (DFI) approach is used to develop novel sustainable solutions for future residential buildings and investigate how integrating different strategies can substantially enhance the overall benefits of reducing the sector’s carbon footprint. The system dynamics are used to create a simulation model that can estimate the synergies between GCMs and Nb-CDR to reduce CO2 emissions and clarify the inner variables’ relations using Vensim software. Thereby, a comparative analysis between the traditional and optimized building designs is applied to the new Egyptian residential buildings. The results indicated potential integration could significantly lower a building’s CO2 emissions during the building life cycle compared to conventional solutions. Additionally, it promotes circularity performance and decarbonization for the construction sector. The study demonstrated that incorporating eco-friendly materials and green building systems requires more attention in the early design stage of residential buildings. Public awareness should be considered, and new policies should be implemented to promote incentives and influence the effectiveness of Nb-CDR with GCMs in the future.

 Keywords:  Residential Buildings; Green concrete; Nb-CDR; System Dynamics; Design and simulation; CO2 emissions.

How to cite: Marey, H., Kozma, G., and Szabó, G.: The Potential Synergies Between the Integration of Green Concrete Materials and Natural-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal Strategies in Residential Buildings Sector, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9762, 2025.

Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global supply chain as a major semiconductor manufacturer. Semiconductor production depends heavily on water resources, making the stable supply of industrial water from upstream reservoirs essential to maintaining the global supply chain. However, international water risk assessments often fail to capture Taiwan’s regional hydrological variations due to their large spatial scale, obscuring the real physical and financial risks related to water resources under climate change. Given Taiwan's distinct climate with pronounced wet and dry seasons, short and fast-flowing rivers, and limited surface water retention, reservoirs are critical for regulating water supply. This study employs hydrological models and reservoir operational models to develop a reservoir risk assessment framework, which is the foundation of water resource management. The assessment procedure aids in understanding regional climate-related water risks. Utilizing this assessment tool to adjust reservoir operations will offer strategies for rational water resource management and enhanced climate resilience.

How to cite: Lai, Y.-P. and Lee, T.-Y.: A Framework for Assessing Water Availability and Risk of Reservoirs in Taiwan under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12004, 2025.

EGU25-12878 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Remote-Sensing based Global Evapotranspiration estimates at high spatial resolution through Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and meteorological data. The CWRweb tool. 

Jaime Campoy, Juan Manuel Sánchez, Antonio Beltrán, Yeray Pérez, Antonio Molina, and Alfonso Calera

This work introduces a new webGIS tool to estimate the Crop Water Requirement (CWR), using time series of satellite images and meteorological data, at high spatial resolution and a global scale. This CWRweb tool provides users with information on the temporal evolution of the CWR, as a first approach of the crop evapotranspiration, as well as other parameters of interest. This process is implemented via web and requires no proficiency in remote sensing.

The implemented calculation of the evapotranspiration under standard conditions (ETc) stands on the robust FAO-56 methodology, based on the relationship between the Crop Coefficient and the Reference Evapotranspiration (Kc-ETo). The CWRweb tool adopts the single crop coefficient approach, combining the effects of both, crop transpiration and soil evaporation into a single coefficient (Kc). These Kc values derive from the NDVI time series of Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite images, for a broad range of crops (horticulture, woody crops, and other crops) and natural vegetation, assuming a general component for the soil evaporation.

The CWRweb tool benefits from the potential of the Sentinel-2A & B satellite constellation to provide users with free time series of images with a spatial resolution of 10m × 10m and a revisit frequency of 2-3 days. The high frequency of Sentinel-2 imagery allows to obtain daily Kc values through interpolation of NDVI data from cloud-free images at high spatial resolution. Online access to massive databases of satellite images, such as those of the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem program (https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/), together with recent advances on meteorological numerical models to provide global ETo layers at different gridding size, are boosting the operational use of the CWRweb tool.

The CWRweb tool runs and graphically displays daily ETc, as well as NDVI, Kc, and ETo values used in its calculation, for a selected time interval. Results can be provided at both, field and pixel scales. An assessment of the CWRtool was conducted by comparison against the OpenET tool on a selection of crops-sites in California, USA. An average uncertainty of RMSE=0.9 mm·d-1, with a negligible bias, was obtained in a performance analysis using the OpenET ensemble outputs as a reference, using 15 different locations, and data for the period 2016-2024. These results are promising and reinforce the potential of the CWRweb tool for the operational estimation of global evapotranspiration at a high spatial resolution.

How to cite: Campoy, J., Sánchez, J. M., Beltrán, A., Pérez, Y., Molina, A., and Calera, A.: Remote-Sensing based Global Evapotranspiration estimates at high spatial resolution through Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and meteorological data. The CWRweb tool., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12878, 2025.

EGU25-14282 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Seasonal transpiration source water and ecohydrological connectivity with streamflow sources in the Maimai M8 Catchment  

Cerra Simmons, Bruce Dudley, Jeffrey McDonnell, and Magali Nehemy

Transpiration significantly depletes terrestrial subsurface water stores and plays a crucial role in 
the hydrological cycle. While extensive research has been conducted in the Maimai M8 catchment 
(New Zealand) and across many catchments on streamflow generation processes and streamflow 
sources, we still know little about the sources of transpiration and when transpiration and 
streamflow sources are hydrologically connected. Here we leverage M8, a long-term studied 
catchment with well-described streamflow generation mechanisms, to investigate the transpiration 
source water of Pinus radiata and its connectivity to streamflow sources. We combined monthly 
observations of isotopic signatures (δ18O and δ2H) of xylem, bulk soil water, mobile water, 
subsurface flow, and stream water with continuous monitoring of tree water stress across a 
hillslope to answer: (1) What is the seasonal source of transpiration at Maimai? And (2) how does 
transpiration source water interact with streamflow sources? Our data showed that transpiration 
sources across the hillslope were not distinct but changed seasonally. During summer, when trees 
showed greater periods of water stress, trees relied on shallow soil water. In contrast, during the 
winter, trees’ isotopic signatures plotted along the local meteoric water line (LMWL), overlapping 
with mobile soil and stream water. Xylem isotopic signatures were not statistically distinct from 
stream signatures in the winter, contrasting with distinct isotopic signatures during the summer. 
Our results showed that transpiration source water in the Maimai M8 catchment changes 
seasonally, influenced by tree water stress and wetness conditions. Overall, our findings suggest 
an ecohydrological connectivity between transpiration and streamflow sources during winter 
months in this wet temperate climate.

How to cite: Simmons, C., Dudley, B., McDonnell, J., and Nehemy, M.: Seasonal transpiration source water and ecohydrological connectivity with streamflow sources in the Maimai M8 Catchment , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14282, 2025.

EGU25-15513 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Monitoring Geomorphological Changes in the Peruvian Coast Using UAVs and PPK Techniques 

Edgar Cubas-Arteaga and María Cárdenas-Gaudry

The Peruvian coast is undergoing significant landscape transformations driven by environmental and climatic factors, with extreme precipitation events exerting a pivotal influence on the morphology of river channels and floodplains. This study leverages advanced technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and post-processing kinematic (PPK) techniques, to address these dynamic changes. The methodology involves co-registering point clouds using ground control points (GCPs) to produce high-resolution and temporally stable digital elevation models (DEMs).The research focuses on a 0.5 km² area within a coastal basin in Peru, with data collection scheduled across two distinct timeframes. The primary objective is to identify areas exhibiting minimal elevation changes and quantify rates of erosion and sediment deposition over a defined period. Specifically, the study measures erosion in gullies and riverbanks, as well as sediment deposition, enabling the estimation of volumetric changes in cubic meters (m³). These findings are critical for advancing the understanding of regional geomorphological processes and informing the development of effective management and mitigation strategies. By employing UAVs and PPK techniques, this research delivers actionable insights into sediment dynamics, supporting sustainable water resource management and land use planning in Peru’s coastal basins. Ultimately, the study contributes to mitigating the adverse impacts of extreme precipitation on the region’s landscapes.

How to cite: Cubas-Arteaga, E. and Cárdenas-Gaudry, M.: Monitoring Geomorphological Changes in the Peruvian Coast Using UAVs and PPK Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15513, 2025.

EGU25-16590 | Posters virtual | VPS10

Exploring a sustainable solid transport management strategy at local level 

Leonardo Mita, Andrea Doria, and Francesco Godano

At a local level, river sections maintenance represents a reduction condition of hydrological risk where soil defense work have been carried out.

In this context, this paper describes how the hydrological-hydraulic monitoring of a soil protection intervention can represent the first step for an integrated management strategy of the river ecosystem aimed at maintaining hydraulic safety at inter-municipal level and at the economic-financial sustainability of the interventions.

The case study concerns the soil defense work of - Celone valley - within the framework of agreement memorandum between the municipalities of Castelluccio Valmaggiore, Celle Di San Vito, Faeto and Troia.

The intervention received funding from the Environment Italian Ministry as part of the Puglia Development Pact. The Implementing Body was the Government Commissioner for hydrogeological risk in Puglia.

The study area is located in northern Puglia as part of Celone basin, the portion closed by Torrebianca Dam. The area is surrounded in Daunia Apennines and is characterised by provincial roads that connect the municipalities affected by flooding phenomena. Specifically, we would like to recall the flood event of 12.13.2015 in which two Danish technicians died near the SP124, overwhelmed by a flood wave.

During the above-mentioned work, solid material transport was identified as a trigger for the landslide and its controlled removal could become a sustainable management strategy.

Therefore, starting from the post-operam monitoring, a solid transport indirect monitoring was planned in order to design the controlled extraction of material and its reuse, allowing the river sections upgrading and its hydraulic safety.

Preliminary and qualitative obtained results show the feasibility and economic sustainability of project. This strategy, codesigned and shared with all stakeholders, aims to become a long-term best practice for sustainable territorial management of the river ecosystem.

How to cite: Mita, L., Doria, A., and Godano, F.: Exploring a sustainable solid transport management strategy at local level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16590, 2025.

EGU25-18985 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS10

Long-term water temperature modeling in semi-arid alpine basins  

Zacarías Gulliver, Sergio López-Padilla, Javier Herrero, Francisco Huertas-Fernández, Antonio J. Collados-Lara, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Cintia L. Ramón, María J. Esteban-Parra, David Pulido-Velázquez, and Francisco J. Rueda

Temperature plays a critical role in the functioning of river ecosystems. Hence, understanding the processes that control water temperature in river networks across daily to multi-year scales is important when trying to manage river thermal regimes. This is particularly urgent in alpine semi-arid basins with substantial human impact, and, especially within the context of global change, where river ecosystem integrity is at risk. A process-based model has been developed to simulate water temperature in lakes and rivers at a regional (watershed) scale. The physically based and fully distributed hydrological model provides comprehensive hydrological and hydraulic simulations of river flow, including contributions from snowmelt, groundwater, and direct runoff at each node of the network. Additionally, the model accounts for the discharge of urban wastewater at its respective nodes. To overcome the computational cost and numerical problems associated with Eulerian methods in long-term simulations, the model uses a semi-Lagrangian approach to discretize the one-dimensional heat conservation equations in river reaches. Reservoir stratification and withdrawal temperatures are simulated with a 1D Lagrangian model (General Lake Model). This methodology ensures the accurate and detailed simulation of water temperature dynamics in rivers by integrating meteorological, hydrological, and hydraulic data, along with the impact of urban wastewater discharges and reservoir outflows. The model is applied to simulate water temperature in a small semi-alpine watershed upstream of the city of Granada that includes two water-supply reservoirs (Canales and Quéntar). Autonomous temperature sensors deployed at different sites are used for model validation. The model is forced with climate databases (reanalysis, regional climate simulation conducted with WRF, and measured data bases) and used in hindcast/forecast exercises to assess the impact of climate change on the thermal regime of inland waters.

Acknowledgments: This research has been supported by the project: STAGES-IPCC (TED2021-130744B-C22) from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities

How to cite: Gulliver, Z., López-Padilla, S., Herrero, J., Huertas-Fernández, F., Collados-Lara, A. J., García-Valdecasas Ojeda, M., Ramón, C. L., Esteban-Parra, M. J., Pulido-Velázquez, D., and Rueda, F. J.: Long-term water temperature modeling in semi-arid alpine basins , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18985, 2025.

EGU25-705 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Enhanced Modulation of Rapid/Flash Drought in India: An Elegant Framework 

Pallavi Kumari and Rajendran Vinnarasi

The land system dries up quickly and intensely during rapid/flash droughts under climate warming are of widespread concern owing to their adverse impact on nation’s economy. During these periods, reduction in precipitation deficits is frequently followed by abrupt increases in evaporative demand, which causes significant drops in soil moisture and discernible effects on agricultural production and the environment. The need for a better knowledge on rapid drought conditions to effectively manage its effects has been highlighted in several recent publications; Nevertheless, the lack of consistent definitions have limited progress toward its assessment. There are several factors and climatic forces that are typically connected to the development of flash droughts, thus it's conceivable that no one definition will fully encapsulate the phenomenon. But it's imperative to ensure that flash droughts (lasts for short duration) can be recognized and differentiated from more traditional drought occurrences (longer duration) due to their quick onset, quick intensification, and severe character. With the increasing use of rapid /flash drought term within the research community, this study explores the extent to which pentad-scale precipitation series across India can be used to represent historical flash droughts, providing a simple framework for the phenomenon. The result shows the categorization of rapid/flash drought at various hotspot location in India and explain it’s causing and triggering factor linked with acute precipitation deficits, one of meteorological variable. The findings of this study can be further utilized in the accurate prediction of flash/rapid drought with the robust evidence from precipitation series in identifying flash drought episodes across the nation. Consequently, our findings indicate that constant monitoring of rapid drought conditions and drivers is crucial for effective preparedness.

 

How to cite: Kumari, P. and Vinnarasi, R.: Enhanced Modulation of Rapid/Flash Drought in India: An Elegant Framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-705, 2025.

EGU25-3139 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Influence of Spatial Heterogeneity in Error Characterization Using Triple Collocation 

Diksha Gupta and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya

Accurate error characterization is essential for validating satellite-based geophysical products. Triple Collocation (TC) estimates random error variances of three mutually independent datasets but assumes a common spatial scale—a condition rarely met in practice. Spatial heterogeneity in the ground truth and mismatches in spatial resolution introduces "spatial representativeness errors", whose influence on error variance estimates remains unexamined. In this study, we have analyzed the sensitivity of the triple collocation estimates using the synthetically generated soil moisture dataset under varying sample sizes and spatial heterogeneity. Our results indicate that sample size (N) affects the TC estimates, with % bias decreasing from ±15% to ±2% for N ranging from 100 to 1000. The study finds that % bias also varies with the degree of spatial heterogeneity across the area under consideration. Additionally, the TC framework exhibits an equal likelihood of overestimation and underestimation. These findings underscore the critical importance of addressing spatial heterogeneity to enhance the reliability and robustness of error characterization in geophysical measurement systems. The study provides valuable insights for improving the applicability of TC in satellite product validation and underscores the need for more advanced approaches to handling spatially diverse datasets.

How to cite: Gupta, D. and Dhanya, C. T.: Influence of Spatial Heterogeneity in Error Characterization Using Triple Collocation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3139, 2025.

EGU25-3986 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Flood Frequency Analysis on Ganga Basin Catchment using Geospatial Techniques 

Kajal Thakur and Shray Pathak

Flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters, significantly impacting human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Severe rains when combined with a lack of proper infrastructure in urban areas can lead to floods. Thereby accurate flood predictions and modelling are essential for efficient flood control in such environments. A critical component of this process is obtaining reliable hydrological outputs over watersheds, which forms the foundation of precise flood forecasting. Flood inundated areas can be generated by hydrological and hydraulic modelling to provide valuable insights into high-risk zones. Modelling helps in interpreting timely and reliable flood information from the generated flood maps to reduce damages in flood areas. In this study Hydrological Response in the form of runoff is computed for a region of the Upper Ganga basin, India by using HEC Series and thus flood inundation maps were generated for different return periods. Data sets required for the study included satellite images, digital elevation model, daily precipitation and soil map. To model flood inundated areas for a return period of 2,5,10,25,50,100 years, HEC-HMS and HCE-RAS were employed. Flood inundation maps were generated and flood risk areas were identified for different return periods. Results showcased that 2-years return period flood inundates approximately 0.29 sq. km, accounting for nearly 2% of the total study area and 100-years return period flood inundates approximately 4.42 sq. km covering nearly 31% of the study area. This study provides a framework for similar research in other flood prone areas and suggest implementation of low-impact development strategies for regions prone to frequent flooding in the study area. The findings underscore the importance of integrating advanced flood modelling techniques with historical data to enhance disaster preparedness and resilience.

Keywords: Climate Change, Hydrological Modelling, Flood Inundated Areas, Return Period.

How to cite: Thakur, K. and Pathak, S.: Flood Frequency Analysis on Ganga Basin Catchment using Geospatial Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3986, 2025.

EGU25-4321 | Posters virtual | VPS11

Performance of data-driven approaches for estimating flow hydrographs from rainfall hyetographs in small mountain catchments.  

Sergio Zubelzu, Miguel Ángel Patricio, Antonio Berlanga, and José Manuel Molina

Data driven algorithms have been largely proven to be accurate tools for modelling many hydrological variables including aggregated river flows. Many studies have tested the suitability of a wide range of data-driven algorithms for predicting the recorded flows with times-steps ranging from a few minutes to monthly or even seasonal observations fed on a wide variety of inputs. They existing works often achieve brilliant performance indicators. In this work we pay our attention to a well-known hydrological process which is the flow hydrograph generation from rainfall hyetographs based on the mass conservation law within the catchment. Our assumption is that given many different physically based theories can provide accurate estimates of the expected flow hydrograph just providing the recorded hyetograph and a set of physical parameters of the catchment, data-driven approaches should also be able to successfully estimate the flow recorded hydrographs. For testing that hypothesis, we have selected two small mountain catchments (rivers Aragón in Canfranc and Valira Oriente in Andorra catchments in the Pirineos mountains in Spain and Andorra) easily parametrizable with no water depletion. We have checked the performance of different data-driven algorithms for predicting the 15-minutes recorded hydrographs fed on 15-minutes rainfall records and the set of physical variables involved in the Green-Ampt infiltration model. Over this process we have faced several issues and observed the data-driven algorithms are unable to provide the performance indicators commonly achieved in the published works.

How to cite: Zubelzu, S., Patricio, M. Á., Berlanga, A., and Molina, J. M.: Performance of data-driven approaches for estimating flow hydrographs from rainfall hyetographs in small mountain catchments. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4321, 2025.

This study employs a composite baseflow model to estimate baseflow, effective recharge, and hydraulic conductivity. Baseflow recession analysis is a hydrological method used to analyze the gradual decline of streamflow during dry periods when groundwater serves as the primary source of water for rivers and streams. Previous approaches often rely on either linear or nonlinear Boussinesq equations, both of which have limitations. The linear Boussinesq equation fails to capture the nonlinear behavior of baseflow, while the nonlinear equation struggles to represent low discharge values, where baseflow recession is most occurred. Furthermore, the nonlinear model introduces assumptions and overlooks baseflow contributions from below the stream’s water level. To address these issues, this study applies the composite model for baseflow estimation. The composite model effectively separates the baseflow component of stream discharge. Following this, effective recharge and hydraulic conductivity are estimated using a high-resolution MODFLOW model, providing more accurate and comprehensive insights into groundwater-surface water interactions.

How to cite: Alattar, M.: Application of a Composite Model to Estimate Baseflow, Effective Recharge, and Hydraulic Conductivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4662, 2025.

EGU25-5173 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Validation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Products Using Ground Observations in Southern Europe 

Gala Tomás-Portalés, Enric Valor, Raquel Niclòs, and Jesús Puchades

Soil Moisture (SM), acknowledged by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV), is a fundamental hydrological parameter that plays a pivotal role in bridging Earth's surface and atmospheric interactions. Understanding SM status and dynamics is critical for various meteorological, hydrological, and climatological applications. Furthermore, it provides insights into the water, energy, and carbon cycles while aiding in the forecasting of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and floods. In consequence, accurate global monitoring of SM with suitable temporal and spatial resolutions is imperative.

This study focuses on the validation of multiple satellite-derived near-surface SM products against field measurements to evaluate their accuracy and reliability. The research was conducted over the northeastern Spain and southern France, covering a 7-year span from January 2015 to December 2021. Ground truth data were obtained from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) database, which included observations from 30 stations across four networks (COSMOS, FR-Aqui, IPE, and SMOSMANIA). The analysis assessed four microwave-based sensors, encompassing both active and passive systems: ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer), SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive), and CCI.

Following data acquisition and processing for both satellite images and ground observations, a comprehensive validation was performed using statistical metrics, scatter plots, and linear regression analysis of the respective time series. Results highlighted that the SMAP mission delivered the most reliable outcomes, achieving a near-unity slope, an intercept close to zero, a correlation coefficient of R = 0.72, and a Root Mean Square Error of RMSE = 0.07 m³/m³. The CCI product followed, while ASCAT and SMOS showed larger uncertainties and weaker correlations, respectively. In addition, an analysis of the in situ depth effect using SMAP indicated that measurements at 0–6 cm (integrated) and 5 cm (point-specific) depths yielded optimal results. Nevertheless, despite remarkable advances in SM monitoring, this work underscores the need for further research to align satellite-derived data more closely with field-level precision.

Acknowledgements: This study was carried out in the framework of the PID2020-118797RBI00 (Tool4Extreme) project, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and also the PROMETEO/2021/016 project, funded by Conselleria d’Educació, Universitats i Ocupació de la Generalitat Valenciana.

How to cite: Tomás-Portalés, G., Valor, E., Niclòs, R., and Puchades, J.: Validation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture Products Using Ground Observations in Southern Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5173, 2025.

The efficiency of an advanced oxidation process (AOP) using direct and indirect ozonation for the removal of pharmaceutical residues from hospital wastewater was examined. Both direct and indirect ozonation demonstrated 34% to 100% removal of the parent compounds. However, based on the products’ chemical structure and toxicity, we suggest that despite using accepted and affordable ozone and radical concentrations, the six parent compounds were not fully degraded, but merely transformed into 25 new intermediate products. The transformation products (TPs) differed slightly in structure, but were mostly similar to their parent compounds in their persistence, stability and toxicity; a few of the TPs were found to be even more toxic than their parent compounds. Therefore, an additional treatment is required to improve and upgrade the traditional AOP toward degradation and removal of both parent compounds and their TPs for safer release high qaulity effluent into the environment. 

How to cite: Avisar, D.: Pharmaceutical transformation products formed by ozonation – does degradation occur? , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8477, 2025.

EGU25-10589 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Integrated catchment and treatment strategies for safeguarding drinking water quality: an adaptive decision-making tool 

Déborah Sousa, Usman Ali Khan, Seán Bradshaw, and Maebh Grace

Ensuring the safety and sustainability of drinking water sources is a critical component of modern water resource management. The recast Drinking Water Directive (EU 2020/2184) emphasizes the delivery of safe drinking water by strengthening protections along the entire supply chain, from source to tap, and adopting a risk-based approach to water safety as recommended by the World Health Organisation. Assessments of water treatment costs tend to focus on the current level of treatment, and not the potential additional costs associated with treatment of new emerging contaminants, many of which are of low molecular weight requiring specialist treatment technologies with expensive CAPEX and OPEX costs. The impacts of climate change on the raw water quality source water abstractions are also likely to result in increasing costs of water treatment systems. In Ireland, the inclusion of emerging substances on the 2023 Drinking Water Regulations and on the first European Commission’s Watch List reflects the evolving nature of water safety management in response to pollutants of emerging concern and environmental pressures. This study presents a robust methodology with a view to inform future funding and targeting of water quality measures and source protection work. Applied across six case studies, the four-stage process (pre-screening, coarse screening, fine screening, and final comparative analysis) guides decision-making. The framework incorporates open-source data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of Ireland, including land-use maps, Water Framework Directive (WFD) waterbody status and significant pressures such as agriculture, forestry, industry, and hydro-morphology, alongside local pressures on water sources. Source protection measures and treatment technologies were derived from extensive literature review of national and international projects and were tailored to specific goals for each case study, with independent evaluations for both strategies. The process concludes with a comparative analysis to identify optimal solutions for each scenario. The study provides recommendations, based on economic assessments and the evaluation of environmental and technological gaps to support the stakeholders in decision making and policy development. The selected strategy for each case is dependent on a suite of site-specific features, including the raw water source type, the catchment size, the mapped WFD pressures exerted into the water source and the latest WFD status and the Water Treatment Plant capacity. The findings highlight the importance of adopting integrated approaches to ensure the resilience of drinking water systems in the face of future uncertainties.

How to cite: Sousa, D., Ali Khan, U., Bradshaw, S., and Grace, M.: Integrated catchment and treatment strategies for safeguarding drinking water quality: an adaptive decision-making tool, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10589, 2025.

EGU25-14673 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Optimizing Irrigation for Cotton Crops using Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithms 

Krishna Panthi, Vidya Samadi, and Carlos Toxtli

Cotton is a one of the major crops in the southeastern United States. It significantly impacts regional water resources since it consumes a large amount of freshwater for irrigation. Current irrigation practices fail to optimize water use accurately since they are largely dependent on soil moisture sensors and grower experience. They do not consider dynamic factors such as soil texture, prevailing weather conditions, and the crop's phenological stage. In this paper we propose an innovative approach to enhance the irrigation efficiency through the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) model. It takes into consideration the dynamic variables and optimizes irrigation. We utilize a crop growth simulation model as a learning environment to devise an optimal irrigation strategy. By continuously learning from crop feedback and environmental inputs, the DRL system dynamically modifies irrigation amount to optimize production while consuming the least amount of water. Our approach presents a viable alternative for sustainable irrigation decisions in water-intensive crops, since preliminary findings indicate that it can greatly conserve water without sacrificing crop health or productivity. The goal of this research is to aid in the advancement of precision irrigation technologies that guarantee cotton production's sustainability and resource efficiency. 

How to cite: Panthi, K., Samadi, V., and Toxtli, C.: Optimizing Irrigation for Cotton Crops using Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14673, 2025.

EGU25-15376 | Posters virtual | VPS11

Enhancing Agricultural Efficiency through an IoT-Based Soil Moisture Monitoring Network Utilizing LoRaWAN and Edge Computing 

Marios Vlachos, Nikos Mitro, and Angelos Amditis

This study explores an IoT soil moisture monitoring network designed to improve agricultural efficiency and sustainability. The system integrates LoRaWAN-enabled soil moisture and temperature sensors, strategically deployed across agricultural fields, with a Raspberry Pi 4 gateway that processes and transmits data to the cloud. The combination of low-power, long-range communication and dual connectivity options—Wi-Fi and LTE 4G—ensures reliable operation even in remote areas, making the system ideal for large-scale agricultural monitoring.

The core of the network is a robust edge processing framework that enhances data accuracy, security, and efficiency. The framework begins with noise filtering, using techniques such as median filtering to remove anomalies from raw data. Once filtered, the data is aggregated over specific time periods to reduce transmission bandwidth and provide actionable summaries of soil conditions. Adaptive data rate adjustments further optimize resource use by increasing data collection frequency during significant environmental changes and reducing it during periods of stability.

Data security is ensured through encryption at the edge, protecting sensitive environmental information from unauthorized access. Local processing also supports predictive analytics, using models like decision trees or linear regression to forecast future soil moisture and temperature conditions based on historical trends. These forecasts enable proactive decision-making, such as adjusting irrigation schedules to maintain optimal soil moisture levels, improving resource efficiency and crop health.

Anomaly detection is another critical component of the system, identifying unusual patterns in sensor readings that could indicate malfunctions or unexpected environmental changes. This ensures data integrity by flagging or excluding erroneous data. In addition, real-time event-driven alerts notify users of critical thresholds, such as dangerously low soil moisture or rapid temperature changes, allowing for immediate interventions. Alerts are delivered through SMS, email, or cloud dashboards for maximum accessibility and responsiveness.

The system's scalability supports the seamless addition of sensors, accommodating expanding agricultural operations without significant modifications. Local data logging provides redundancy, preserving raw and processed data even during network outages. This ensures uninterrupted monitoring and allows for post-event analysis, enhancing reliability and resilience.

The network’s design offers substantial benefits for agriculture. Adaptive resource management conserves bandwidth, power, and computational resources, reducing operational costs while extending system lifespan. By combining edge processing with cloud analytics, the system provides timely and actionable insights, empowering farmers to make data-driven decisions. Enhanced security through encryption protects sensitive data, while predictive analytics and anomaly detection ensure proactive and accurate responses to changing field conditions.

Overall, the IoT soil moisture monitoring network is a robust and efficient solution for modern agriculture. It enhances real-time monitoring, decision-making, and resource management, enabling farmers to optimize irrigation, improve crop health, and boost productivity. The system's scalability and adaptability make it a practical choice for addressing the growing demands of precision agriculture, contributing to sustainable farming practices and improved food security.

Acknowledgement:

This research has been funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under ScaleAgData project (Grant Agreement No. 101086355).

How to cite: Vlachos, M., Mitro, N., and Amditis, A.: Enhancing Agricultural Efficiency through an IoT-Based Soil Moisture Monitoring Network Utilizing LoRaWAN and Edge Computing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15376, 2025.

EGU25-15646 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Development of a GLOF forecasting system through a novel concept of pre-simulated library over the Hindu Kush Himalaya region 

Susmita Saha, Ashish Pandey, B. Simhadri Rao, and Mohit Prakash Mohanty

The Himalayan belt contains over 12,000 glaciers that have witnessed accelerated glacial melt due to concomitant climate change, leading to the formation of numerous unstable glacial lakes. These lakes, dammed by glacial deposits, pose significant mountain hazards due to their potential for sudden discharge of water and debris, causing devastating floods in the downstream reaches. To address the precipitous Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risks, there is a dire need to account for the impacts at near-real time, given their lesser warning times. The study proposes to develop a pre-simulated GLOF inundation library through a set of scenarios based on breach depths, breach widths, and moraine failure times to model extreme GLOF events over Safed Lake, a sensitive glacial lake in the Uttarakhand, India. At the first place, a geospatial analysis is carried out with a set of Landsat 9 images to ascertain the spatio-temporal dynamics. Using a set of scenarios within the 1D-2D coupled MIKE+ model, we perform flood inundation simulations to create a GLOF inundation library. This library will facilitate the selection of the closest inundation map based on near-real-time data; Thus, enhancing effective flood risk communication and preparedness. This innovative approach to GLOF modeling and flood risk communication is crucial for managing unstable glacial lakes with high flooding probabilities and short warning times. The findings underscore the importance of advanced modeling and timely communication in mitigating the impacts of glacial lake outburst floods and improving resilience in the Himalayan region.

 

Keywords: Climate change; Flood Risk Management; Glacial Lake Outburst Flood; Inundation library; Landsat 9; MIKE+;

 

How to cite: Saha, S., Pandey, A., Rao, B. S., and Prakash Mohanty, M.: Development of a GLOF forecasting system through a novel concept of pre-simulated library over the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15646, 2025.

EGU25-15812 | Posters virtual | VPS11

Validation of SMAP and EOS-04 Soil Moisture Products Over Karnataka’s Heterogeneous Agricultural Landscapes Using Ground Measurements 

Anjali Parekattuvalappil Shaju, Vaibhav Gupta, and Sekhar Muddu

Soil moisture is a crucial parameter that influences various environmental and socioeconomic processes, including flood and drought mitigation, sustainable agricultural productivity, and industrial applications. This study analyses soil moisture dynamics using data from 25 sensing stations distributed across various regions of Karnataka State. These sensing stations were installed under the REWARD (Rejuvenating Watersheds for Agricultural Resilience through Innovative Development Programme) project funded by World Bank. These stations encompass diverse topographic, soil, rainfall, and crop characteristics. High-frequency data collected from these stations at 15-minute intervals is aggregated into daily averages to analyse soil moisture responses to rainfall, recovery times, and depth-wise correlations between 5 cm and 50 cm. This study also validates soil moisture products from SMAP and EOS-04 satellites using ground-based measurements at these 25 locations. The validation was performed for both raw satellite data and data filtered using the Soil Wetness Index (SWI). The Soil Wetness Index (SWI) filter is applied as a background layer to effectively capture soil moisture dynamics across different spatial scales. The accuracy of soil moisture retrievals is evaluated for SMAP products at spatial resolutions of 9 km, 1 km, and 400 m, as well as for EOS-04 data at a 500 m resolution. When the SWI filter is applied, the remotely sensed retrievals show the strongest agreement with in-situ measurements across cultivated crop areas throughout the year. The findings from this study enhance the understanding of soil moisture dynamics and offer actionable recommendations for selecting the best satellite soil moisture products and optimizing soil moisture modelling. These insights are valuable for agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster mitigation strategies in regions with diverse environmental conditions.

How to cite: Parekattuvalappil Shaju, A., Gupta, V., and Muddu, S.: Validation of SMAP and EOS-04 Soil Moisture Products Over Karnataka’s Heterogeneous Agricultural Landscapes Using Ground Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15812, 2025.

EGU25-15983 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Groundwater chemical trends analyses in the deep aquifers of the Piedmont Po Plain (NW Italy): preliminary evaluation of ongoing processes 

Daniele Cocca, Manuela Lasagna, and Domenico Antonio De Luca

The Piedmont Plain (NW Italy) is characterized by a shallow phreatic aquifer hosted in fluvial complex (gravel and sand),  overlying a fluvial-lacustrine and marine complex (gravel and sand with silty clayey levels) containing deep confined/semiconfined aquifers.

Deep aquifers are essential for the supply of drinking water in the Piedmont Plain. However, detailed information on deep aquifers is lacking, such as a regional piezometric map, a continuous monitoring of the water table variations over time and a regional characterization of GW quality. Moreover, the deep groundwater chemical values in the Piedmont Po Plain show significant temporal variability and need to be characterized.

The aim of this study was to analyze the trends (period 2000–2021) in the main physicochemical parameters (electrolytic conductivity (EC), pH) and main ions (Ca, Mg, HCO3, Na, Cl, NO3 and SO4) in 70 wells in the deep aquifers in order to identify the main ongoing processes. Furthermore, to gain a deeper understanding of specific processes, the temporal distribution of threshold exceedances ​​for the sum of pesticides (period 2009-2021) was evaluated. The potential interaction with shallow aquifers was evaluated making a comparison of the average concentrations for the main ions and parameters between shallow and deep aquifers. In general, shallow aquifers are exploited for agricultural purposes and show higher concentrations compared than  deep aquifers.

Additionally, the temporal trends of ion exchange (Ca+Mg/Na index) were evaluated to highlight the contribution from silty-clayey layers, which represent the less permeable portions of the deep aquifers.

Results highlight relevant increasing trends for EC, Ca, Mg and Cl in more than 60% of the monitored wells, and increasing trends for HCO3 and Na in more than 40% of the monitored points. For these parameters, decreasing trends exist for less than 10% of the monitored points. SO4, NO3 and pH show heterogeneous trends. In particular, several monitored wells show significant variation over time, with concentrations doubling from the beginning of the time series. The sum of pesticides shows greater exceedances of the threshold values in the most recent period (2016-2021) compared to the previous one (2009-2015).

The temporal trends of ion exchanges reveal the presence of trends in 61% of the monitored wells, with a prevalence of increasing trends, corresponding to direct ion exchange. For the main ions, the comparison between the average concentrations in the shallow and deep aquifers shows higher values in the shallow aquifers.

These results suggest an increase in the recharge of the deep aquifers by the shallow aquifers and an increased contribution from silty-clayey layers of the deep aquifers. These processes are consistent with excessive withdrawal from deep aquifers. Furthermore, the increasing concentrations represent a significant issue, leading to the progressive deterioration of deep groundwater quality. In conclusion, the main processes responsible for the variation in groundwater chemistry in the deep aquifers were identified, defining the existence of impacting and worrying processes at a regional scale.

How to cite: Cocca, D., Lasagna, M., and De Luca, D. A.: Groundwater chemical trends analyses in the deep aquifers of the Piedmont Po Plain (NW Italy): preliminary evaluation of ongoing processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15983, 2025.

EGU25-18154 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Assessing the Performance of Crop Model Inversion Technique in the AquaCrop Model under Different Synthetic Scenarios 

Aatralarasi Saravanan, Daniel Karthe, and Niels Schütze

Agro-hydrological modeling is crucial for designing climate change adaptations such as irrigation management. However, the accuracy of the simulation results greatly relies on the availability and accessibility of reliable ground data. Many countries extremely vulnerable to climate change have limited ground data as input for agro-hydrological modeling that restricts the validity of model results. A ‘model inversion’ technique can potentially tackle this data-scarce situation. Here, we combine alternative data sources, such as remote sensing for the estimation of crop development, with intense simulations to find missing input data such as irrigation.

The present study aims to assess the performance of the model inversion technique using the AquaCrop model under different synthetic scenarios. The main research question is, ‘Is an inverted AquaCrop model able to identify the irrigation pattern of the crop growing period?’ The different synthetic scenarios for testing the performance include variations in the rainfall amount, irrigation amount and interval, soil texture, and initial soil moisture conditions. Preliminary results for synthetic scenarios show that inverse modeling is feasible for the estimation of irrigation patterns. The results indicate that under conditions of zero rainfall and dry initial soil moisture state, best inversion results were produced in both scenarios where continuous and non-continuous irrigation was applied. The scenarios near real-world conditions yielded the best results when continuously using uniform irrigation. Further research will investigate whether integrating remote sensing-based crop growth indicators like LAI or NDVI into the inverse modeling approach can improve scenarios' simulation with non-continuous irrigation.

How to cite: Saravanan, A., Karthe, D., and Schütze, N.: Assessing the Performance of Crop Model Inversion Technique in the AquaCrop Model under Different Synthetic Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18154, 2025.

EGU25-18401 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Modeling Flash Flood Events in The Arid And Semi Arid Regions of The Luni River Basin India 

Akshay Vyankat Dahiwale, Sourabh Nema, Malkhan Singh Jatav, Dilip Barman, Sudesh Singh Choudhary, M. Someshwar Rao, and Anupma Sharma

The Luni River Basin situated in the arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan, faces growing challenges related to flooding, despite receiving low annual rainfall, with some areas recording less than 250 mm. The Luni being an ephemeral river, is primarily influenced by monsoonal precipitation which drives the majority of surface runoff within the basin. However, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have significantly altered its hydrological dynamics. These sudden and intense downpours increasingly trigger flash floods, which disrupt the already fragile water dynamics of the region. Flood events in the Luni Basin are particularly severe due to the interplay of geomorphological and anthropogenic factors. The basin predominantly has sandy soil, coupled with high salinity levels result in limited infiltration capacity. This, combined with enhanced surface runoff exacerbates the frequency and impact of floods. Moreover, extensive groundwater extraction, rapid land-use changes, urbanization, and the expansion of irrigation systems reliant on canal-fed networks have heightened the basin’s susceptibility to flooding. These floods not only damage critical infrastructure and agricultural lands but also complicate water storage and long-term resource management strategies. This study focuses on modeling the flash flood events in the Luni River Basin over the period from 1979 to 2024 to better understand their impacts on the arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan. Advanced hydrodynamic models, such as HEC-RAS and ANUGA, have been utilized to simulate these flood events, providing a detailed representation of flood behavior and extent. The accuracy of these models has been enhanced through validation against satellite-derived data for recent events. This ensures reliable flood extent mapping, offering valuable insights into the basin's hydrological responses and supporting the development of effective flood mitigation and management strategies.

How to cite: Dahiwale, A. V., Nema, S., Jatav, M. S., Barman, D., Choudhary, S. S., Rao, M. S., and Sharma, A.: Modeling Flash Flood Events in The Arid And Semi Arid Regions of The Luni River Basin India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18401, 2025.

EGU25-19490 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Modelling Snow-Glacier Melt Runoff Dynamics In Bhilangana Basin 

Bhupendra Joshi, Vishal Singh, Veerendra Kumar Chandola, and Atar Singh

The vast network of glaciers in the Himalayas serves as a vital source of freshwater for the main river systems. These are essential in determining a region's climate and hydrology. Ecological balance, agricultural output, and hydrological systems all depend on these glaciers. However, the stability of hydrological systems and long-term water availability have become major concerns in recent decades due to the acceleration of glacier melting brought on by climate change. In this study, globally available gridded satellite and reanalysis datasets, including ERA5, IMDAA, IMD, APHRODITE, and others, were evaluated to identify the most accurate dataset for the Bhilangana Basin. A thorough performance evaluation was conducted to assess the suitability of these datasets for the region. Furthermore, a hybrid rainfall dataset was developed using a bias correction approach to improve accuracy and reliability, ensuring a more robust representation of precipitation dynamics. The Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model was utilized to examine the dynamics of snow-glacier melt during the years 2020–2023. The performance matrix revealed that the ERA5 dataset performed better than other datasets except the hybrid precipitation dataset. The average variation during 2000-2023 in snow q was found in the range of 15 to 26 percent, rain q from 12 to 58 percent, glacier q from 56 to 18 percent and base q from 8 to 18 percent. The analysis further revealed that 11 parameters were found to be critical in influencing the model's output e.g. Degree day factor for snow(DDFS), Glacier debris degree day factor(DDFG), Tcritical, Glacier melt frac runoff. The SPHY model's applicability for studying snow-glacier melt runoff dynamics and the significance of combining various climate datasets to precisely forecast the water resource scenarios in glaciated basins are further highlighted by this study.

How to cite: Joshi, B., Singh, V., Chandola, V. K., and Singh, A.: Modelling Snow-Glacier Melt Runoff Dynamics In Bhilangana Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19490, 2025.

EGU25-19528 | Posters virtual | VPS11

Comparison of a Semi-Distributed Empirical Model and a Distributed Physical Model in a Snow-Covered Mediterranean Catchment Under Climate Change Scenarios 

Javier Herrero, Laura Galván, Rubén Fernández de Villarán, Zacarías Gulliver, Sergio López-Padilla, David Pulido-Velázquez, and Francisco Rueda

The catchments of the Quéntar and Canales reservoirs are two adjoining valleys on the north-western side of the Sierra Nevada in Spain. Canales drains the northern slope of the river Genil, with 15 linear km of peaks above 3000 meters, culminating in the highest in the Iberian Peninsula, Mulhacen, at 3479 meters. With 83 km2 above 2000 m, this river exhibits a clear nival hydrological regime. In contrast, the Quéntar basin, which collects water from the Padules and Aguas Blancas rivers, drains a smaller area with a maximum altitude of 2336 m and only 7 km2 above 2000 m. Its regime is pluvio-nival, with a much more marginal influence of snow.

To understand and predict the hydrological behaviour of these catchments under climate change scenarios, we have calibrated two different hydrological models. These models will provide the predictive tools needed to calculate river temperature and substances, particularly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The first model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is a well-known conceptual semi-distributed parametric model based on linear reservoir equations that simulates snow using a modified degree-day model. The second model, NIVAL, is a distributed model based on physical processes, featuring a specific snow module that relies on mass and energy balance, specifically designed for use in the Sierra Nevada.

The two models differ significantly in terms of preparation, calibration and performance. SWAT's advantages are those of any distributed model: fast computation, easy calibration (facilitated by automatic algorithms) and a reduced need for input data. These features make SWAT a practical choice for many applications. On the other hand, NIVAL offers a more detailed representation of the hydrological processes and greater robustness to changes in scenarios outside the calibration range. This makes NIVAL particularly valuable for studying individual processes and hypothetical future scenarios.

It was expected that the flow adjustment in SWAT would be less accurate than in NIVAL, especially in the Canales basin due to the significant snow influence. However, the calibration and validation of both models on daily flows for both basins yielded very similar results in the most common statistics. For instance, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values were around 0.63/0.70, the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) was 0.70/0.74, and the Percent Bias (PBIAS) was 2.49/19.08 for the Canales and Quéntar cases. These results demonstrate that SWAT is a reliable option for calculating total flows in historical scenarios.

Nevertheless, NIVAL's detailed process representation makes it more reliable for studying individual processes or hypothetical future scenarios. The next step in this research is to compare these models against various climate change scenarios to assess the differences in their predictions. This will help us understand the strengths and limitations of each model and improve our ability to predict and manage water resources in snow-covered Mediterranean catchments under changing climate conditions.

Aknowledments: This research has been supported by Grant TED2021-130744B-C22 funded by MICIU/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union Next GenerationEU/ PRTR

How to cite: Herrero, J., Galván, L., Fernández de Villarán, R., Gulliver, Z., López-Padilla, S., Pulido-Velázquez, D., and Rueda, F.: Comparison of a Semi-Distributed Empirical Model and a Distributed Physical Model in a Snow-Covered Mediterranean Catchment Under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19528, 2025.

EGU25-20562 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS11

Identification of surface water and groundwater interaction in a non perennial river using hydrogeochemistry and stable isotopes 

RamyaPriya Ramesh, Keerthan Lingaiah, and Elango Lakshmanan

Studying of surface water and groundwater interaction is crucial in understanding the changes in the ecosystems, thus affecting the quality as well as the quantity of hydrology of the catchment. Non -perennial rivers account around 50% of the world’s rivers and such interaction plays a prominent role in determination of seasonal availability and quality of such catchments. The present study aims to identify the river water and groundwater interaction using hydrogeochemistry and stable isotopes in Cauvery, a major non-perennial river of southern India. The river water as well as groundwater was collected once in four months from 2013 to 2021. The samples were analysed for major ions from 2013-2021 whereas stable isotopes δ18O and δ2H were analysed during 2018 and 2021. Inverse modelling was carried out to understand the hydrogeochemical reactions during surface water and groundwater interaction. Both river water and groundwater was  dominanted by Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Na-Cl type. Seasonal variation of major ions in river water and groundwater shows similar variation. The inverse modelling indicates the weathering of hornblende, plagioclase, biotite, K-Feldspar into stable clay minerals along with the leaching of major ions into the water. The stable isotopes indicates that both river water falls between precipitation and the evaporation during wet seasons, whereas few samples have been isotopically enriched during the dry season as a result of evaporation, suggesting that groundwater contributes to the river water. Also, the interaction between river water and surface water is more evident during wet seasons, whereas during dry periods the interaction persists in headwater regions. falls between precipitation and the evaporation during wet seasons, whereas few samples have been isotopically enriched during the dry season as a result of evaporation, suggesting that groundwater contributes to the river water. The present study on river water and groundwater interactions acts a baseline framework in developing sustainable water management in non-perennial rivers. The temporal variation of major ions between groundwater and river water shows similar pattern, indicating their interrelationships. The isotope results shows that groundwater and river water falls between precipitation and the evaporation during wet seasons, whereas few samples have been isotopically enriched during the dry season as a result of evaporation, suggesting that groundwater contributes to the river water. The weathering of hornblende, plagioclase, biotite, K-feldspar occurs during groundwater -river water interaction which then transforms to stable clay minerals. It was evident that at the lower part of the basin, the river water discharges into groundwater during the wet periods and vice versa during dry seasons. Thus, this current study on river water- groundwater interactions act as a baseline knowledge in developing sustainable water management plan in the river basins.

How to cite: Ramesh, R., Lingaiah, K., and Lakshmanan, E.: Identification of surface water and groundwater interaction in a non perennial river using hydrogeochemistry and stable isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20562, 2025.

HS1.1 – Water and Health

EGU25-1703 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3 | Highlight

Atmospheric deposition as a diffuse source of PFAS contamination of soils, ground and surface water resources 

Alexandra Hockin, Elvio Amato, Johan van Leeuwen, and Niels Hartog

Atmospheric deposition is an important pathway for PFAS to enter soil, surface water and groundwater, but their persistence and mobility complicate source identification. Understanding these pathways is crucial for safeguarding drinking water production, as PFAS poses risks to human health. This study investigated atmospheric PFAS deposition in two drinking water production locations located 135 km apart, highlighting its potential impact in the contaminating soil, surface water, and groundwater. Aerosol and deposition samples were collected along with meteorological data at both locations. To link the deposition of PFAS fluxes to surface water and groundwater contamination, water samples were collected from hydrologically isolated heathland pools. PFAS concentrations were analysed in all samples, and tracer ions (Na+, Mg2+) were measured in aerosols to explore associations with sea-spray aerosols (SSA). PFAS concentrations in aerosols were consistent between the two sites, with 12 of 14 PFAS detected at both locations. Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and trifluoromethanesulfonic acid (TFMS) were most abundant PFAS compounds, followed by PFBA, PFOA, PFOS, and 6:2 FTS. The PFAS composition of deposition fluxes were similar to aerosol concentrations, suggesting relatively unbiassed atmospheric removal of PFAS by deposition. A unique PFAS fingerprint was identified for future source tracing, while the absence of 6:2 FTS in deposition samples highlighted its distinct atmospheric behaviour. PFAS patterns in heathland pools matched those in aerosol and deposition samples, confirming atmospheric deposition as a the main contamination source. PFPeS, PFHxS, PFHpS, and branched PFOA were present in water samples, but lacking in aerosol and deposition samples. This absence is likely due to historical deposition and accumulation processes, highlighting the potential impact of legacy PFAS inputs. Soils and surface waters may act as both sinks and secondary sources of PFAS, releasing contaminants into groundwater and perpetuating risks. Wind data indicated a potential HFPO-DA source northwest of one location, while PFAS levels were not linked to SSA tracer ions at either location. Consistent results between the two locations indicate that the bulk of PFAS contamination is linked to diffuse, rather than local, sources. The findings of this study highlight the important role of atmospheric deposition as a source of diffuse PFAS contamination to soils, surface waters and groundwater and emphasize that historical PFAS input and accumulation processes should be taken into account when assessing risks and mitigation strategies to protect drinking water supplies and public health.

How to cite: Hockin, A., Amato, E., van Leeuwen, J., and Hartog, N.: Atmospheric deposition as a diffuse source of PFAS contamination of soils, ground and surface water resources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1703, 2025.

EGU25-3793 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of PFAS Sources and Loads in the First Industrial River Basin 

Patrick Byrne, Will Mayes, Alun James, Sean Comber, Emma Biles, Alex Riley, Rob Runkel, and Philip Verplanck

Locating geographical sources of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances [PFAS] to rivers, and quantifying the loading attributable to those sources, requires temporal and spatial analysis of PFAS loads across river basins. However, as most studies focus on the measurement of PFAS concentrations, there is a distinct lack of mass loading data for rivers worldwide. As a result, we do not have scientifically robust estimates of how much PFAS enter our rivers from different sources within a river basin or how much PFAS flows from rivers into the oceans.

Here, we present a temporal and spatial analysis of PFAS loads in the River Mersey Basin, England, a heavily industrialised and urbanised river basin. Our primary aim was to locate and quantify sources of PFAS to the river and to elucidate the spatial and temporal dynamics of PFAS transport.

Using a combined field sampling [n = 112] and modelling approach applied at the tributary to river basin-scale, our three-year study provides the first temporally robust estimates of PFAS export for a European river system and identifies the location and magnitude of PFAS river inputs across a major urban river basin.

Analysis of gadolinium anomalies at the river basin-scale reveals approximately 50% of PFAS are associated with effluents from wastewater treatment works [WwTWs]. This is confirmed by a mass balance analysis of river and WwTW PFAS loads. High spatial resolution studies of PFAS loads at the tributary-scale demonstrate large contributions [up to 70% of total loads] from industry and airports. For example, inputs from a major international airport are responsible for 66% of the total perfluorooctane sulfonic acid [PFOS] load in the River Bollin.    

Monitoring and analysis of PFAS river loads, rather than concentrations alone, allows the geographical location and magnitude of PFAS entry to rivers to be established. Temporally robust and catchment-scale PFAS river loading data are essential to help prioritize catchment management and remediation interventions and to reliably estimate the flux of PFAS from river basins to the oceans.

How to cite: Byrne, P., Mayes, W., James, A., Comber, S., Biles, E., Riley, A., Runkel, R., and Verplanck, P.: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of PFAS Sources and Loads in the First Industrial River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3793, 2025.

EGU25-5921 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Assessing Trifluoroacetate Accumulation and Transport in Agricultural and Forested Areas  in a Mountainous Catchment 

Immanuel Frenzel, Dario Nöltge, Michael Müller, and Jens Lange

Trifluoroacetate (TFA) is an emerging contaminant that originates from various human sources. The degradation of fluorinated gases in the atmosphere leads to an ubiquitous input through precipitation. Degradation of agricultural pesticides and pharmaceuticals in waste water add to the amount of TFA pollution. Once released into the environment, the TFA molecule is nearly conservative due to its negative charge, high solubility in water, and absence of degradation pathways. Consequently, TFA concentrations in the environment are constantly increasing, following the industrial production of fluorinated precursor substances. Previous studies suggested accumulation of TFA in plants or retention in organic soil. This knowledge, however, is based on a small number of samples or laboratory labelling experiments. Catchment-scale studies are so far missing. In particular, hydrological processes controlling adsorption and desorption are poorly understood. We therefore analyzed a two-year dataset of weekly major ion and isotope tracers together with TFA in the mountainous Dreisam catchment (Black Forest, Germany). We sampled precipitation, the discharge of three nested catchments and a hillslope spring. A balancing approach suggested that TFA was not permanently retained in forested headwaters. In agricultural parts, we found a surplus of TFA which added up to an annual input of 11 kg km-2 on arable land. Major ions suggested that previously retained TFA was flushed from soils under wet conditions following large precipitation events. This was true both for agricultural and non-agricultural areas. These findings indicate that TFA concentrations in soils may be higher than average concentrations found in rain or streamflow. Therefore, future research should focus on the unsaturated zone.

 

How to cite: Frenzel, I., Nöltge, D., Müller, M., and Lange, J.: Assessing Trifluoroacetate Accumulation and Transport in Agricultural and Forested Areas  in a Mountainous Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5921, 2025.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), particularly perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA, C7F15COOH), have been widely used in industry due to their high stability and heat resistance. Their release during manufacturing and treatment processes has led to contamination of aquatic systems and groundwater. While PFOA is generally resistant to degradation under typical aqueous environments, it can be degraded in the presence of catalysts or strong oxidizing / reducing agents. Previous studies have reported that PFOSA derivatives could be transformed into PFOA and shorter-chain PFCAs in the presence of montmorillonite under sunlight irradiation. The Fe3+-containing material mentioned above are widely distributed in natural environments, indicating that the potential for PFOA to undergo photocatalytic degradation facilitated by natural media. This study aims to investigate the potential role for photocatalytic transformation of PFOA using various forms of Fe3+ found in natural environments (structural iron in clay minerals, magnetite, goethite, etc.) under both 254 nm UV light and natural sunlight conditions (including UV radiation of 290-400 nm). When 50 μM PFOA and 500 μM Fe3+-containing montmorillonite were exposed to 254 nm UV light for 3 days at pH 7, a defluorination ratio of 18.2 % was achieved. Future studies will aim to investigate the photocatalytic behavior of structural iron containing clay minerals under natural sunlight irradiation. The photocatalytic reaction between PFOA and nontronite (22.3 wt%), which contains approximately ten times higher structural iron (Fe3+) content than montmorillonite (2.3 wt%) will be investigated. To further understand the potential of PFOA phototransformation under natural conditions, reaction mixtures will be prepared with various forms of naturally occurring Fe3+ media, such as iron oxides to simulate environmental conditions.

How to cite: Ko, J. and Nam, K.: Study on photocatalytic transformation characteristics of PFOA in the presence of structural iron containing clay minerals and iron oxides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7586, 2025.

EGU25-8778 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Modelling PFAS Emission and Transport at Large-Catchment Scale with a Regionalised Approach 

Meiqi Liu, Steffen Kittlaus, Corine ten Velden, Erwin Meijers, Hélène Boisgontier, Sebastian Hartgring, and Matthias Zessner

Environmental and health concerns surrounding per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have garnered increasing attention in recent years. The persistence and high mobility of PFAS present significant challenges in understanding their fate and transport in the environment. To address these challenges and gain insights into the contamination status at large catchment scale, as part of the EU Horizon 2020-project, we further developed the regionalized emission model system “MoRE”, to make it capable of quantifying PFAS emissions via multiple pathways across the Upper Danube Basin(Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary).

The model operates on an annual temporal scale from 2015 to 2021 and with a spatial resolution of 526 sub-catchments in the size of 354 ± 352 km2. General input data were sourced from a combination of open-access databases and local ministry records. Hydrological information was obtained using the Wflow model developed by Deltares, while PFAS concentrations were derived from a comprehensive database integrating data from a 1.5-year monitoring campaign conducted across various environmental compartments within the investigated catchment, as well as additional information from previous studies.

The model accounts for multiple emission pathways, including point sources such as urban wastewater treatment plants and industrial dischargers, and diffuse pathways, such as atmospheric deposition, groundwater flow, surface runoff, and soil erosion. Validation of the model against observational data from multiple river monitoring stations demonstrated pleasing performance, particularly for perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs). These results underscore the model’s effectiveness in predicting in-stream PFAS loads and concentrations. However, the underestimation of certain substances suggests the presence of unaccounted emission sources.

Key findings reveal that diffuse pathways, especially those associated with inhabitants and legacy contaminated spots (e.g.former firefighting foam applications and municipal landfills), contribute substantially to overall PFAS inputs. Furthermore, point-source emissions from industrial facilities, especially a PFAS production site, significantly influence PFAS concentrations, particularly for "replacement compounds" like ADONA and GenX.

By identifying key contamination hotspots and evaluating potential risks in the context of proposed regulatory thresholds and scenario evaluations, this study provides helpful insights for the water management sector. The model can guide targeted monitoring, inform decision-making for remediation efforts, and support the development of more effective regulatory frameworks to mitigate PFAS pollution at regional and catchment scales.

How to cite: Liu, M., Kittlaus, S., ten Velden, C., Meijers, E., Boisgontier, H., Hartgring, S., and Zessner, M.: Modelling PFAS Emission and Transport at Large-Catchment Scale with a Regionalised Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8778, 2025.

EGU25-8881 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Particle-Facilitated Transport of PFAS and their Precursors in Contrasting River Catchments 

Dominik Renner, Joel Fabregat-Palau, Hermann Rügner, Martin Ebner, and Peter Grathwohl

Rapid urbanization rates in combination with climate change may lead to increasing urban runoff volumes and pollutant loads. Many organic pollutants are transported sorbed to particles. Therefore, high discharge events present a major pathway for pollutant transport in rivers. In recent years, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have gained growing attention due to their persistent nature, ubiquitous occurrence, and toxicity. Many studies have focused on the transport of PFAS in rivers in the aqueous phase, often overlooking particle-facilitated transport, which is particularly relevant for PFAS precursors (i.e. polyfluoroalkyl substances that can degrade into perfluoroalkyl end-products) due to their generally strong sorption affinity to solids.

In this study, particle-facilitated PFAS transport, including precursor compounds of perfluorocarboxylic acids (PFCA), is investigated during high discharge events in contrasting river catchments in southwest Germany. Additionally, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are analyzed. 29 high discharge events were sampled at eight different rivers over 1.5 years. Concentrations of PFAS precursors (∑PFCA,ox) on the suspended river sediments measured by a chemical oxidation assay (dTOP assay) were between 33.9 ± 0.4 and 100.9 ± 10.6 µg kg-1, while PAH (∑PAH16) concentrations ranged from 0.07 – 3.92 mg kg-1. No apparent correlation was found between ∑PFCA,ox and ∑PAH16. While PAH have been shown to correlate with urban pressure strongly, PFAS precursors appear to exhibit an elevated ubiquitous signal in the environment, as they were detected in a remote river catchment at concentrations comparable to those in more urbanized areas. Further source apportionment included the sampling of stormwater overflows from residential and highway areas. PFCA precursor concentrations were more variable and generally higher than those observed in river samples, suggesting that, similar to PAH, one potential source is urban particles and street debris being washed into the river during heavy rainfall events.

PFAS precursor concentrations on suspended sediments in the rivers were more or less independent of the event, likely since rivers act as integrators of numerous small streams and inflows. This was particularly true for the Neckar River, the largest stream investigated, and also holds for PAH. By combining sediment yield data or online turbidity measurements with information on suspended sediment loading, it is possible to estimate the contaminant flux of PFAS precursors. The Neckar River alone transports approximately 1.7 kg year-1 of PFAS precursors through the city of Tübingen, ultimately carrying them towards the North Sea, where they may degrade into stable PFCA over time.

How to cite: Renner, D., Fabregat-Palau, J., Rügner, H., Ebner, M., and Grathwohl, P.: Particle-Facilitated Transport of PFAS and their Precursors in Contrasting River Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8881, 2025.

EGU25-11000 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Poly- and Perfluoroalkyl Substances: A first glimpse of the “forever chemicals” in water samples from Red River, Vietnam 

Toan Khanh Vu, David Riboul, Pauline Martinot, Catherine Guigue, Van Hoi Bui, Laure Malleret, and Vincent Fauvelle

The Red River is one of the most important watercourses in northern Vietnam, providing water for agriculture, industries and domestic uses. Given the proximity of metropolitan areas, agricultural and industrial zones, the Red River is under strong anthropogenic influence and susceptible to contamination by persistent substances, such as Poly- and Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS). Being highly resistant to extreme heat and repellent to both water and oil, PFAS have been widely used in aqueous firefighting foam and in various consumer goods, e.g. cooking wares, food packaging, textile[1], [2]. However, epidemiological studies have suggested that PFAS can induce cancers, toxic effects, and other health problems [3], [4]. Hence, PFAS have been listed as priority substances by several regulatory agencies and added as Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) by the Stockholm Convention.

Being a member state of the Stockholm Convention, Vietnam has restricted the usage of Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and Perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) in the industrial sector (Decree 82/2022/ND-CP). However, PFAS are until now not included in the national environmental quality standards and a deficit of PFAS research effort makes their occurrence in the Red River unknown. Therefore, the aim of this research is to apply a targeted approach (54 PFAS) along with the Total Oxidizable Precursor Assay (TOPA) in water samples collected in the Red River in June and September 2023 and estimate their flux towards the ocean. After the solid phase extraction on mixed mode Weak Anion Exchange cartridges, samples were analyzed by Ultra-High Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled with Mass Spectrometry Orbitrap ExplorisTM 120.

While twenty-one PFAS were detected in samples from June (from 3.0 to 109 ng.L-1), it was only twelve for September samples (from < limit of quantification to 9.2 ng.L-1). Perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) was the most predominant PFAS in samples from both sampling campaigns. An exception was reported in one sample in June where the 6:2-Fluorotelomersulfonic acid (6:2-FTS) concentration reached up to 99.9 ng.L-1. The concentrations of PFOA and Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), the two most extensively targeted PFAS, were well below the European and American standard limits, contributing to less than 10% of the PFAS burden. Besides the legacy perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), emerging PFAS analogs could also be quantified in water samples namely the fluorotelomer sulfonic acids and the ether sulfonic acids. The occurrence of emerging PFAS suggests they are being used as substitutes for the regulated PFOA and PFOS in industrial and commercial applications. TOPA consistently demonstrated significantly higher PFAS concentrations, up to one order of magnitude, implying the presence of non-targeted or unknown PFAS besides the 54 selected ones. Positive correlations (p < 0.05) between certain PFAAs and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) suggest either common sources for both DOC and PFAAs or the preferential binding of PFAAs to DOC. The estimated average riverine flux of PFAS varied from several kg to ton.yr-1, depending on the flow variability and estimation approach (targeted or TOPA). 

References 

[1] Schmidt et al. (2019), doi: 10.1016/J.MARPOLBUL.2019.110491

[2] Evich et al. (2022), doi: 10.1126/science.abg9065

[3] Fenton et al. (2021), doi: 10.1002/ETC.4890

[4] Kim et al. (2021), doi: 10.1016/J.ENVPOL.2021.116929

How to cite: Vu, T. K., Riboul, D., Martinot, P., Guigue, C., Bui, V. H., Malleret, L., and Fauvelle, V.: Poly- and Perfluoroalkyl Substances: A first glimpse of the “forever chemicals” in water samples from Red River, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11000, 2025.

EGU25-11049 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Assessment of PFAS contamination in soils: non-target identification of precursors, fluorine mass balance and microcosm studies    

Joel Fabregat-Palau, Jonathan Zweigle, Dominik Renner, Christian Zwiener, and Peter Grathwohl

The continuous release of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) from the transformation of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) precursors presents a significant and often overlooked challenge in contaminated soils. In south-western Germany a large-scale agricultural topsoil contamination PFAS was discovered, which is known as the Rastatt case, and was traced back to the past application of paper sludge as soil amendment. In this study, 40 PFAS were monitored in eight topsoil samples from Rastatt according to the EPA 1633 method. Additionally, non-target screening was performed to identify PFAS precursors. FTMAPs, diPAPs, and diSAmPAP were identified and accounted for > 80% of the total PFAS burden, which ranged from ~ 280 to 9,700 ng PFAS g-1. These levels were confirmed by both, non-target screening (semi)quantifications and chemical oxidation of precursors (TOP assay) in order to close the fluorine mass balance against extractable organic fluorine (EOF). Notably, in some organic carbon rich samples, repeated oxidation was needed to achieve a complete fluorine mass balance, highlighting the need to include EOF as quality assurance of TOP assays and (semi)quantifications derived from non-target screening approaches.

Batch microcosm incubations were additionally set up to assess short-chain PFAS production over time. The linear increase of short-chain PFAS concentrations in solution, in combination with TOP estimates, allows to derive respective production rate constants and, therefore, estimate contamination time scales. This methodology may potentially apply to other precursor-driven contaminant sources such as those present in aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) sites. Contamination time scales in the assessed locations indicate that leaching of short-chain PFAS to groundwater resulting from ongoing precursor transformation will continue for decades. The variability in time scale estimates across the eight examined soils encouraged the examination of specific soil properties affecting PFAS production rates, particularly assessing the role of certain phosphatase enzymatic activities and microbial biomass carbon. FTMAPs, diPAPs, and diSAmPAP all contain a phosphate moiety which is hydrolyzed during biotransformation processes. A principal component analysis (PCA) indicated the positive role of both acid phosphomonoesterase activities and, in lesser extent, microbial biomass carbon on the production of short-chain PFAS in soils. Nonetheless, further research on isolated bacteria strains is needed to elucidate the role of phosphatases as well as other enzymatic activities in the decay of P-containing PFAS precursors.

How to cite: Fabregat-Palau, J., Zweigle, J., Renner, D., Zwiener, C., and Grathwohl, P.: Assessment of PFAS contamination in soils: non-target identification of precursors, fluorine mass balance and microcosm studies   , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11049, 2025.

EGU25-11533 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Impact of a mixture of PFAS molecules on the activity and structure of soil microbial communities 

Fabienne Battaglia-Brunet, Marc Crampon, Marie-Paule Norini, Hugues Thouin, Michael Charron, Hafida Tris, and Vladimir Beskoski

PFAS compounds have emerged as a major concern, due to their effects on human health, widespread occurrence, complex physico-chemical behaviour, very low biodegradability and lack of removal/degradation technologies that could be effective for the very diverse members of this huge family of molecules. Unlike other organic compounds released in environment by anthropogenic activities, such as petroleum hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls or pesticides, PFAS compounds concentration in the environment is at the parts-per-billion (ppb) and parts-per-trillion (ppt) levels. As a consequence, the microbial communities of most environmental compartments were not exposed to high doses of PFAS, their adaptation strategies largely remain to be explored. They could give useful clues for a better description of the impacts of these molecules and for the development of models of their fate in environment including the biological compartment. Here, 4 different soils presenting contrasting physico chemical properties were artificially contaminated by a mixture of 4 PFAS molecules (PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS and PFBS), in concentrations fixed at 10 mg.kg-1 each and incubated. The impact of PFAS addition was monitored on carbon mineralization activity, enzymatic activities, and evolution of the structure and composition of bacterial, archaeal and fungal communities during 70 days of incubation. The PFAS concentrations were not significantly modified during the incubation, but the mixture of PFAS molecules affected the structure and activity of soil microbial communities differently depending on the type of soil.

How to cite: Battaglia-Brunet, F., Crampon, M., Norini, M.-P., Thouin, H., Charron, M., Tris, H., and Beskoski, V.: Impact of a mixture of PFAS molecules on the activity and structure of soil microbial communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11533, 2025.

EGU25-12081 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

Spatio-Temporal Variability of PFAS Compounds in Groundwater in the Veneto Region, Italy (2013–2023) 

Ayesha Younas, Eleonora Aruffo, Paola Lanuti, Mohsin Tariq, and Piero Di Carlo

Perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are a class of anthropogenic organic chemicals that have emerged as persistent environmental contaminants. In 2013, widespread contamination of surface water, groundwater, and drinking water was identified in three provinces of the Veneto Region, northern Italy, significantly impacting nearly 30 municipalities. The contamination was mainly caused by industrial discharges of fluorinated chemicals into local water bodies from a chemical manufacturing facility and other industrial activities. While the production and use of PFAS chemicals have since been regulated in the region, concerns remain regarding the long-term persistence of PFAS in groundwater due to their environmental stability. This study analyzes groundwater monitoring data collected over a 10-year period (2013–2023) to evaluate temporal trends and spatial variability in PFAS concentrations across the region. The dataset contains concentrations of key PFAS compounds, including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), and other prevalent species, collected from multiple groundwater monitoring wells. We used statistical methods to analyze temporal patterns and geostatistical methods for spatial mapping of contamination hotspots. Preliminary findings indicate heterogeneous spatio-temporal trends among various PFAS compounds, with some exhibiting significant variations over time and location, while others remained relatively stable. These findings provide valuable insights into the behavior of PFAS in groundwater, aiding in developing future monitoring strategies and mitigation efforts.

How to cite: Younas, A., Aruffo, E., Lanuti, P., Tariq, M., and Di Carlo, P.: Spatio-Temporal Variability of PFAS Compounds in Groundwater in the Veneto Region, Italy (2013–2023), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12081, 2025.

EGU25-15524 | Posters on site | HS1.1.3

PFAS Monitoring in groundwater: Current status and challenges in France 

Julie Lions, Anne Togola, Abel Henriot, and Benjamin Lopez

In France, two-thirds of the water withdrawn for drinking water supply comes from groundwater (OFB, 2017), hence monitoring PFAS is essential to document spatial distribution, dynamics and anticipate potential impacts on water quality.

A good monitoring resolution in term of spatial extend, frequency, analytic performance is crucial to better understand sources, pathways and potential impacts. We propose a focus on the regulatory groundwater monitoring for France, where an increasing number of PFAS compounds have been regulated for monitoring, going from 6 in 2015 to 20 in 2022, in compliance with the European Drinking Water Directive (Directive 2020/2184). However, as PFAS represent a family of more than 10,000 compounds, it is necessary to assess the total PFAS contamination, beyond the list of regulated parameters.

The concept of the “total PFAS” is not yet clearly defined and is open to question. Measurement by combustion ion chromatography (CIC) provides access to adsorbable organic fluorine (AOF), i.e. the total measurement of fluorinated organic compounds, without the need to identify each individual compound. It is a fast, inexpensive method that gives an indication of the overall level of contamination. However, it can also include substances other than PFAS (e.g. fluorinated pharmaceuticals). Methodological and analytical developments under the framework of the H2020 PROMISCES project (GA No 101036449) will contribute to the deployment of this approach in water monitoring.

At the French level, we analysed the available data on PFAS concentrations in groundwater (from the ADES[1] database) from different perspectives.

In terms of spatial contamination, PFAS occurrences were mapped in relation to different hydrogeological contexts and pressures (emission sources, aquifer types, density of use,…). These groundwater occurrence maps are of interest for the implementation of health monitoring of water intended for drinking water supply, both from the point of view of geographical sectors and water ressources, but also for the analysis of the contexts to be targeted. This will support decision making for drinking water supply where health risk is of primary interest.

In terms of time, the first PFAS analyses are reported for the period 2009-2011. In the whole dataset, the more densely monitored parameters (> 30,000 analyses) are PFOA, PFOS, PFHpA, PFHxA, PFDS, and PFHxS.

Quantification rates vary considerably between the different molecules analysed. PFOS is the compound with the highest quantification frequency (17.8%). It is also the most frequently researched compound (about 38,000 analyses). Other compounds researched with the same intensity (about 35,000 analyses) have lower quantification frequencies: PFHxA (12.3%), PFOA (11.2%), PFHxS (10.5%), PFBS (7.8%), PFHpA (7.1%), PFBA (5.4%). For the dataset considered, 12 of the 20 compounds were found, on average, less than 3 times out of 100.

Our work highlights that PFAS are widely observed in French groundwaters. Quantification rates are among the highest reported for micropollutants at the national level. Given the potential time-delay effect, due to stock effect, in the soil and unsaturated zone is suspected, and the documented adverse effects on human health, careful monitoring of these compounds is essential in the near future to support decision-making.

How to cite: Lions, J., Togola, A., Henriot, A., and Lopez, B.: PFAS Monitoring in groundwater: Current status and challenges in France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15524, 2025.

EGU25-205 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Modeling the Ammonium Removal Processes in Household Sand Filters 

Ran Wei, Anh Van Le, Binlong Liu, Mohammad Azari, Wolfgang Nowak, Andreas Kappler, and Sergey Oladyshkin

Elevated ammonium (NH4+) concentrations in groundwater (GW) pose significant challenges to existing GW treatment systems, particularly in simplified systems such as household sand filters (HSFs), which are widely used in developing countries. We previously conducted a series of column experiments (sand filter materials collected in Hanoi, Vietnam) mimicking HSFs. These experiments revealed limited and fluctuating NH4+ removal, highlighting the need for a comprehensive process-based model to elucidate the complex interplay of physical and biochemical processes that influence NH4+ concentration dynamics in these systems. Here, we established a one-dimensional advective-dispersive-reactive model conditioned on data from column experiments under laboratory (artificial GW inflow with sand materials from local HSFs) and field conditions (natural GW inflow with sand materials from local supplier), accounting for temporal variations in reaction kinetics, transport processes, and a previously unconsidered inter-phase transfer process for nitrate (NO3-). The modeled breakthrough curves capture the complex dynamics of NH4+, nitrite (NO2-), and NO3- concentrations under both laboratory and field conditions. The reaction rates of the nitrogen species show strong hysteresis in response to substrate (NH4+ and NO2-) concentrations, suggesting that potential lags in the biochemical reactions caused by inhibitions and low retention time lead to the incomplete NH4+ removal. Our scenario analysis indicates that, without inhibition effects, the current bio-reactive environment could reduce NH4+ concentrations to the legal target level (within up to eight hours retention time under field conditions). This study represents one of the few process-based modeling efforts mimicking HSFs. Future modeling research should parameterize various inhibition effects into the existing reactive transport models in order to gain quantitative insight into enhancement methods for HSFs.

How to cite: Wei, R., Le, A. V., Liu, B., Azari, M., Nowak, W., Kappler, A., and Oladyshkin, S.: Modeling the Ammonium Removal Processes in Household Sand Filters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-205, 2025.

Abstract

Arsenic (As) contamination in groundwater is a serious environmental and public health issue, particularly in regions where groundwater is a primary source of drinking water. Many Asian countries, particularly Bangladesh, India and parts of Southeast Asia are adversely affected with As contaminated aquifers. The present study thus aims to explore the source, distribution and release mechanism of As into the groundwater in the parts of southern bank of the Upper Brahmaputra floodplains in Assam, India.  Groundwater samples (n=100) were collected from the shallow aquifers (< 30 m) from two the districts Jorhat and Golaghat, and were analysed for major ions (Ca2+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Cl-,HCO3-, NO3-,SO42-) and trace elements (As, Fe, Mn, Pb, Co, Cu, Zn). Concentration of As, Fe and Mn in the aquifers has exceeded the permissible limits set by WHO (World Health Organisation) posing serious threat to human health. 54% of groundwater samples have exceeded WHO permissible limit of 10 µg/L for As (range: bdl (below detection limit) to 480 µg/L, mean: 31µg/L). While 94% (range: 0.076 mg/L to 41.37 mg/L, mean: 10.92) and 77% (range: 0.002 mg/L to 9.06 mg/L, mean: 0.6 mg/L) of groundwater samples have exceeded the WHO permissible limit of 0.3 mg/L and 0.05 mg/L for Fe and Mn respectively. Aquifers enriched with As was found adjacent to Naga foothills while low As was found near the Brahmaputra river. Aquifer lithology reveals the presence of thick clay layer near the Naga hills (also indicated by higher Al2O3 in the sediments) and subsequently minerals like illite and kaolinite was found in these clay layers (confirmed by the XRD peaks). The clay minerals might have acted as the active site for adsorption of As, thus acting as the host for As in the studied region. Moreover, the average value (mean: 80) of Chemical Index of alteration (CIA) indicates intense chemical weathering at the source area in warm and humid condition leading to formation of copious amount of clay minerals like kaolinite. No strong co relation was seen between As and the redox sensitive elements viz; Fe and Mn, nor with HCO3, NO3 or SO4 indicating multitudinous processes or reactions viz competitive exchange with anion, reductive dissolution and pH dependent sorption might have control the release of As in the studied region. Higher LREE compared to HREE indicates the source of these clastic sediments could be from felsic or intermediate composition of rocks. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis indicated the dominance of geogenic factors as the main contribution of these contaminants in the groundwater of the study area. Regular monitoring and intervention of groundwater in the region is crucial for its prolong use. The present study will assist stakeholders and policy maker in taking evidence-based decision and providing As safe drinking water to the affected communities

Key words: Arsenic; Groundwater; Brahmaputra floodplains; Sediment Geochemistry; Hydrochemistry

How to cite: Medhi, S. and Choudhury, R.: Arsenic toxicity in Groundwater of Brahmaputra Floodplains of Assam, India: Concerns for drinking water quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1106, 2025.

EGU25-3798 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Selecting an Appropriate Surrogate for Assessing Filtration Removal of Cryptosporidium parvum for Water Treatment Applications 

Margaret E. Stevenson, Liping Pang, Andreas H. Farnleitner, Gerhard Lindner, Alexander K.T. Kirschner, Alfred P. Blaschke, and Regina Sommer

Cryptosporidium parvum is a pathogen causing gastrointestinal infections, occasionally leading to death in immunocompromised individuals. It can contaminate surface water and groundwater, and consequently drinking water supplies, through agricultural activities such as cattle and dairy farming or the spreading of manure as fertilizer. The importance of removing C. parvum by filtration is of great interest because of its long-term persistence in water as oocysts and its resistance to chemical disinfection owing to its thick cell wall. This is relevant for both subsurface filtration and engineered filtration processes. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate its removal efficiency in subsurface media and during the filtration stage of drinking water treatment. This study aimed to select an appropriate surrogate for C. parvum oocysts that exhibits similar attenuation and transport behaviour through porous media, is cost-effective, and poses no harm to humans or the environment, enabling its application in engineered installations and field studies.

Bacillus subtilis is commonly used as a conservative surrogate for C. parvum for subsurface transport studies, and aerobic spores have been included by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as an indicator for C. parvum in groundwater under the direct influence (GWUDI) of surface water. While B. subtilis may be a cost-effective option, its smaller size (nearly 6 times smaller in diameter), different shape (rod-shaped vs. spherical), and distinct surface characteristics present limitations. This study evaluated the attenuation and transport of B. subtilis spores, oocyst-sized unmodified (yellow-green and yellow-orange) and glycoprotein-coated microspheres, along with UV inactivated C. parvum in columns packed with silica sand. The objective was to determine the significance of size, surface charge, and macromolecules on the cell wall surface, on the reduction of the oocysts. Glycoprotein-coated microspheres, exhibiting similar physicochemical properties (including macromolecules) to oocysts, were found to be the most effective surrogate. The study results highlight the importance of selecting appropriate surrogates for accurate evaluation of the transport of C. parvum in the subsurface and its removal in water treatment through sand filtration.

How to cite: Stevenson, M. E., Pang, L., Farnleitner, A. H., Lindner, G., Kirschner, A. K. T., Blaschke, A. P., and Sommer, R.: Selecting an Appropriate Surrogate for Assessing Filtration Removal of Cryptosporidium parvum for Water Treatment Applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3798, 2025.

EGU25-4185 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Transport of pathogens in saturated porous rocks under variable flow and salinity 

Alessandro Ghirotto, Valentina Prigiobbe, Maria Clementina Caputo, Osvalda De Giglio, Giorgio Cassiani, Mert Çetin Ekiz, Antonietta Celeste Turturro, Antonella Francesca Savino, Debora Colella, Gavin Barboza, Mirco Milani, and Marco Verani

The transport of pathogens through rocks is often regarded as negligible unless there are fractures in the medium. However, sedimentary rocks may have a porosity that allows the migration of pathogens even when they are unfractured.
In this work, we investigated the transport behavior of several pathogens (namely Escherichia coli and Enterococci faecalis) through a sedimentary porous rock made of 98.5 wt.% of calcite (CaCO3), hydraulic conductivity 6·10−6 m/s, and porosity 0.43. Core flooding experiments were performed under variable head conditions, ensuring full saturation of the samples. During the experiments, the flow and pathogen concentration were monitored. After an initial stabilization of the core, a suspension containing a known concentration of pathogens was superimposed onto the sample and allowed to drain through. Upon complete suspension drainage, several cycles of sterile saline solution (0.9 vol.%) were performed until the pathogen concentration at the outlet became negligible. A reactive transport model through saturated porous media was developed and implemented to describe the tests. The model couples conservation laws for flow and transport under variable head conditions with constitutive equations of straining and attachment/detachment. The data show significant retention of pathogens within the core during suspension drainage and rapid mobilization during distilled water infiltration. This behavior is well captured by the model and shows that rocks can act as bioreactors for pathogens that favor accumulation and growth during loading and mobilization during flooding with low-salinity water. This may suggest that porous rock deposits may exacerbate contamination of the underlying aquifers under intermittent conditions of accumulation/growth and release rather than protecting underground water resources, as generally assumed.
This topic is the objective of DY.MI.CR.ON. project “Predictive dynamics of microbiological contamination of groundwater in the earth critical zone and impact on human health (DY.MI.CR.ON Project)” funded by the European Union – Next Generation EU, mission 4 component 1, CUP I53D23000500001.

How to cite: Ghirotto, A., Prigiobbe, V., Caputo, M. C., De Giglio, O., Cassiani, G., Ekiz, M. Ç., Turturro, A. C., Savino, A. F., Colella, D., Barboza, G., Milani, M., and Verani, M.: Transport of pathogens in saturated porous rocks under variable flow and salinity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4185, 2025.

EGU25-7415 | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Temporal stability of microbial water quality in small  irrigation water sources 

Yakov Pachepsky, Matthew Stocker, Jaclyn Smith, James Widmer, Dana Harriger, Donjin Jeon, Billie Morgan, Seokmin Hong, Andrew van Tassel, Insuck Baek, Laurel Dunn, Alisa Coffin, Oliva Pisani, and Moon Kim

 

Streams and ponds used for local irrigation tend to demonstrate high spatiotemporal variability of water quality. Microbial water quality monitoring becomes overly resource-demanding if the water quality metrics are treated as purely random values. Research on several irrigation ponds and streams showed relatively stable spatial patterns of microbial and other water quality metrics. Detection of those patterns was achieved by setting 20 to 30 monitoring locations, visiting each location seven to ten times during the irrigation season, measuring the water quality metrics at each location with in situ sampling in water samples, computing relative differences between the measurements in each sampling location, computing the average value of those measurements across the water source for each visit, and finally computing the mean relative differences (MRD) for each location over all the visits. Positive MRDs indicated the preponderance of elevated values of water quality variables, and negative MRDs indicated the prevalence of low values. The nearshore locations typically had the largest MRD in ponds, and the locations with more populated stream reaches. 

Unmanned aerial vehicles were used for multispectral imaging of some ponds on each visit to several ponds before the water sampling. Both reflectance and remote sensing indices were determined at the same locations where water quality metrics were measured. The stable temporal patterns were detected for reflectance and remote sensing indices. Strong significant Spearman correlations were found between stable patterns of some water quality variables and remote sensing indices. Those correlations indicate the opportunities to use UAV-based remote sensing of irrigation water sources to inform the design of sampling water across ponds. Correlations between stable patterns of water quality variable patterns may help in developing monitoring design schemas when the more readily available water quality variable patterns are known.

Establishing temporally stable spatial patterns via the mean relative differences points to locations where monitoring locations could be placed to represent the average across the pond or stream. Also, locations with low MRDs of the microbial pollution metrics appeared to be more suitable for establishing the irrigation water intake. Overall, stable water quality patterns, when detected, can provide useful guidance for establishing and monitoring water quality for those water sources.

How to cite: Pachepsky, Y., Stocker, M., Smith, J., Widmer, J., Harriger, D., Jeon, D., Morgan, B., Hong, S., van Tassel, A., Baek, I., Dunn, L., Coffin, A., Pisani, O., and Kim, M.: Temporal stability of microbial water quality in small  irrigation water sources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7415, 2025.

EGU25-8167 | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Resilience to Future Changes: Assessing the Impact of Human Wastewater Emissions on Microbiological Water Safety Along the Danube  

Julia Derx, Peter Valent, Sophia Steinbacher, Ahmad Ameen, Anna-Maria König, Katalin Demeter, Rita Linke, Regina Sommer, Gerhard Lindner, Alois W. Schmalwieser, Julia Walochnik, Alexander Kirschner, Robert L. Mach, Sílvia Cervero-Aragó, Matthias Zessner, Steffen Kittlaus, Günter Blöschl, Margaret Stevenson, Alfred Paul Blaschke, and Andreas H. Farnleitner

Transboundary rivers are crucial resources for drinking water, recreation, and irrigation. However, wastewater emissions and global environmental and demographic changes can impair raw water quality and pose risks to public health. This study aims to assess the impact of emissions from wastewater treatment plants, combined sewer overflows (CSOs), and inland waterway transport on microbiological water safety along the upper Danube River Basin (DRB).

To achieve this, we developed a stochastic mathematical model to trace pathogen load emissions throughout the river network. The model predicts concentrations of reference pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Campylobacter, norovirus, enterovirus) in the river for current conditions and a future climate scenario represented by a selected CORDEX RCP 8.5 high emission scenario. The study estimates bathing water infection risks and determines the required pathogen logarithmic reduction in raw river water to ensure safe drinking water. The model accounts for exponential pathogen inactivation rates influenced by water temperature, solar ultraviolet radiation, and lake sedimentation (for protozoan cysts/oocysts). High-resolution navigational information based on automated identification system (AIS) data, detailing the number and location of ships, were used to model the impact of inland waterway transport. The data were aggregated into monthly average daily ship volumes across three ship types (cruise, passenger, and freight) along a section of the Danube River. Model validation was conducted using monthly data sets spanning 2–4 years, including cultivation-based standard fecal indicators, human-associated genetic fecal microbial source tracking markers (HF183/BacR287, BacHum), and reference pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia). Additionally, the study investigates whether the crAssphage marker (CPQ_056) serves as a suitable proxy for human viral fecal contamination in water quality modeling, compared to standardized viral indicators such as somatic coliphages. To understand the effects of future changes on water safety, various scenarios and combinations up to the year 2100 are analyzed, including population growth (affecting wastewater emissions), climate change (impacting river discharge and microbial inactivation), advanced wastewater treatment, reduction of CSOs (in line with the recast of the European Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive), and changes in inland navigation and ship wastewater handling.

The findings indicate that tertiary treated municipal wastewater currently has the greatest impact on river water safety. However, if additional disinfection (quaternary treatment) is implemented, other pollution sources, such as ship navigation and CSOs, as well as climate change effects, will play an increasingly significant role in determining microbiological water safety.

How to cite: Derx, J., Valent, P., Steinbacher, S., Ameen, A., König, A.-M., Demeter, K., Linke, R., Sommer, R., Lindner, G., Schmalwieser, A. W., Walochnik, J., Kirschner, A., Mach, R. L., Cervero-Aragó, S., Zessner, M., Kittlaus, S., Blöschl, G., Stevenson, M., Blaschke, A. P., and Farnleitner, A. H.: Resilience to Future Changes: Assessing the Impact of Human Wastewater Emissions on Microbiological Water Safety Along the Danube , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8167, 2025.

EGU25-8224 | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

From the pasture to the water: multiparametric laboratory experiments to determine microbial release from feces 

Rita Linke, Yanhe Zhou, Gerhard Lindner, Nadine Hochenegger, Tamara Borovec, Georg Reischer, Katarina Priselac, Alba Hykollari, Gabrielle Stalder, Regina Sommer, Julia Derx, and Andreas Farnleitner

To ensure the supply of clean water, we need tools to accurately predict where microorganisms of fecal origin come from, how they move in the environment and where they go to. To date, however, there have been few studies that have looked at bacterial overland transport (BOT). The current state of knowledge is mainly based on data from point sources (sewage treatment plants), whereas little is known about diffuse fecal sources from wildlife and livestock. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate the influence of the type of fecal matter (cow and red deer) as well as storage time and conditions (temperature and moisture) on resuspension and re-mobilization of (genetic) fecal indicators and/or pathogens. For this purpose standardized fecal samples from cow and deer were prepared in the laboratory and stored for different lengths of time (0 to 120 days) under diverse climatic conditions reflecting seasons. Fecal samples were then used in shaking experiments in which the samples were covered with water in Erlenmeyer flasks and placed in a shaking incubator. Different rainfall intensities were simulated by different shaking speeds (60 rpm and 85 rpm) and the effect of the rainfall duration was simulated by the duration of shaking (10 min and 60 min). Cultivation-based methods were used to determine fecal indicator organisms (FIB) such as E. coli, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens spores as well as somatic coliphages in the water. A panel of different qPCR-based DNA and/or RNA markers will then be used to determine host-associated genetic markers (qPCR). This multifactorial experimental approach provides the first quantitative estimates of the persistence and mobility of microbial target organisms in standardized fecal pellets from cattle and deer. The chosen multi-parametric and multi-method approach allows 1) comparison of culture-based with qPCR-based results and 2) comparison of RNA vs. DNA targets. NGS (next generation sequencing) data allows to draw conclusions on intestinal microbial persistence and to evaluate whether they reflect the mobilized load, an important information for the subsequent modelling approach. To summarize, the present study represents the first holistic quantitative approach to determine bacterial overland transport. The state-of-the-art combination of quantitative, microbiological and molecular methods and parameters will provide the scientific basis for accurate prediction of BOT.

How to cite: Linke, R., Zhou, Y., Lindner, G., Hochenegger, N., Borovec, T., Reischer, G., Priselac, K., Hykollari, A., Stalder, G., Sommer, R., Derx, J., and Farnleitner, A.: From the pasture to the water: multiparametric laboratory experiments to determine microbial release from feces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8224, 2025.

EGU25-10607 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.4

Innovative modeling of the physicobiochemical determinants of fecal indicator bacteria 

Hao Wang, Anouk Blauw, Jos van Gils, Eline Boelee, and Gertjan Medema

The risk of infection by enteric pathogens in bathing waters is generally indicated by monitoring fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations. Mechanistic models are efficient tools for predicting FIB concentrations and corresponding contributions from various impact factors based on historical records and different climatic scenarios. However, most existing FIB physicobiochemical models are limited by the availability of FIB observations and knowledge of the physicobiochemical processes. Modeling studies that performed advanced sensitivity analyses or model comparisons to disentangle the contributions from different processes and impact factors, are rare.

To enhance the understanding of the relative importance of the various processes that affect FIB concentrations in different aquatic systems, we developed a comprehensive and generic FIB physicobiochemical model, including an improved die-off module and sediment interaction module. The new die-off module includes a cumulative endogenous photo-inactivation. By developing the relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and Ultraviolet diffuse attenuation coefficients, the module calculates the Ultraviolet-A (UVA) and Ultraviolet-B (UVB) extinction by waters. The penetrated UVA + UVB light under different wavelengths is used for endogenous photoinactivation rate calculation via the biological weighting function.  Distinct from using a constant partition rate in previous sediment interaction modules, the new sediment interaction module calculates the dynamic partition rate based on not only suspended sediment (SS) concentrations but also its composition via two different classes of SS: sand and clay.

Separate validation of the two sub-modules demonstrated the reliability of our modeling approach. Contrary to previous die-off modules, our new die-off module implied an improvement after adding UV endogenous photo-inactivation. According to sediment interaction module validation, the dynamic partitioning coefficient can reasonably allocate E. coli between water and sediment through sedimentation and resuspension, which is an essential precondition for incorporating sediment into the model as a reservoir for E. coli.

The sensitivity analysis result showed that 1) photo-inactivation is important in low DOC waters, but not in high DOC waters since the UV penetration is limited; 2) The impact of sediment interaction is insignificant under steady E. coli input conditions, but vital during and after a peak event. Interactions with sediments can extend the half-life of E. coli in water columns up to four times after a peak event.

This work demonstrated the significance of sediment interactions and DOC concentrations for predicting the duration of episodes of insufficient bathing water quality. The new generic module enables better simulation of bathing water quality across different types of aquatic environments and conditions. Future applications can choose processes selectively from the new FIB physicobiochemical model and couple it with hydrological or hydrodynamic models to address specific environmental conditions and research purposes.

How to cite: Wang, H., Blauw, A., van Gils, J., Boelee, E., and Medema, G.: Innovative modeling of the physicobiochemical determinants of fecal indicator bacteria, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10607, 2025.

EGU25-10696 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.4

A Comparative Study of Arsenic Removal from Drinking Water Using Zero-Valent Iron (ZVI) and Magnetite/Reduced Graphene Oxide (MrGO) Coated Sand in Column Systems 

Acar Şenol, Sarp Çelebi, Omar A. I. M. Elkawefi, S. Sevinç Şengör, Gülay Ertaş, and Kahraman Ünlü

Arsenic contamination in drinking water is a pressing global issue, with over 250 million individuals lacking access to water that meets the World Health Organization's recommended limit of 10 µg/L. Arsenic, a confirmed carcinogen, poses significant health risks, necessitating efficient and cost-effective removal strategies. Adsorption remains one of the most prevalent methods for arsenic removal, employing materials such as metal oxides, graphene-based metal oxides, nanocomposites, and carbonaceous materials and organic-metallic frameworks. One of the most researched materials for the removal of arsenic from drinking water is Zero-Valent Iron (ZVI).  However, ZVI, while widely utilized, exhibits limitations including reduced efficacy for As(III), extended reaction times, sensitivity to competing ions, narrow operational pH and DO range, and iron leaching into the water. This study explores the potential of magnetite/reduced graphene oxide (MrGO)-coated sand as an advanced alternative. MrGO's structural synergy, combining highly adsorptive magnetite nanoparticles with the enhanced stability and properties of reduced graphene oxide, addresses many of ZVI’s shortcomings. However, its application in column studies as a fixed nanoparticle remains underexplored, limited to theoretical and batch studies and pelletized or layered column studies. A novel approach to arsenic removal by integrating MrGO-coated sand and ZVI in column systems is presented in this work. The study evaluates their performance independently and in combination, focusing on removal efficiency, operational range, and cost-effectiveness. This includes the development of MrGO-coated sand for enhanced applicability in column systems and the optimization of MrGO-to-ZVI ratios to achieve maximum removal efficiency under conditions representative of real-world groundwaters. Preliminary findings suggest that MrGO-coated sand demonstrates the ability of the material to adequately remove arsenic while maintaining a broader operational conditions compared to ZVI. By investigating optimal ratios and conditions, this study aims to balance performance with economic feasibility, providing a scalable solution for arsenic-contaminated water treatment, contributing to the advancement of arsenic removal technologies and highlighting the potential of reduced-graphene-oxide-based materials in addressing critical water quality challenges.

How to cite: Şenol, A., Çelebi, S., Elkawefi, O. A. I. M., Şengör, S. S., Ertaş, G., and Ünlü, K.: A Comparative Study of Arsenic Removal from Drinking Water Using Zero-Valent Iron (ZVI) and Magnetite/Reduced Graphene Oxide (MrGO) Coated Sand in Column Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10696, 2025.

EGU25-11562 | Orals | HS1.1.4 | Highlight

Temporal modeling of surface water bacteriological quality in West Africa using remote sensing and machine learning methods 

Marc-Antoine Mant, Elodie Robert, Manuela Grippa, Laurent Kergoat, Moussa Boubacar moussa, Beatriz Funatsu, Javier Perez Saez, Rochelle Newall Emma, and Marc Robin

In 2021, diarrheal diseases were responsible for around 1.17 million deaths worldwide. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most impacted regions, where 440,000 deaths were recorded in 2024. This high mortality rate can be explained by 1) significant bacteriological pollution of surface waters by pathogenic micro-organisms responsible for diarrheal diseases, 2) widespread use of untreated water by the population and3) lack of sanitation and community health infrastructures. In addition, ongoing climate change is likely to have a negative impact on water quality, and potentially increase the presence and transmission of pathogens.

Tele-epidemiology, the combination of satellite observations and epidemiology, is a powerful tool for studying climate-environment-health relationships and for understanding and predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of pathogens and diseases through the use of satellite and in-situ data. We aim at using this method to indirectly monitor water quality and reveal environmental factors conducive to the emergence of critical health situations by modeling the dynamics of E. coli in West Africa. E. coli is considered the best indicator of faecal contamination (IFC) in temperate zones, and is recommended as a proxy for assessment of water contamination. In Burkina Faso, Robert et al (2021) demonstrated a significant correlation between E. coli, intestinal enterococci and cases of diarrhea. E. coli therefore appears to be a good IFC in West Africa, and would be relevant for predicting diarrheal diseases.

The first objective is to study the links between E. coli concentration in water and environmental parameters 1) measured in-situ in West African surface waters (Bagre reservoir in Burkina Faso and Kongou - Bangou Kirey in Niger) from 2018 to 2024 (concentration of suspended particulate matter, particulate organic carbon, etc.), 2) measurable by satellite (surface water reflectances mesured by Sentinel-2) or 3) estimable by satellite algorithm (precipitation, hydrometeorological parameters, NDVI, etc.). We then use key environmental parameters to model the concentration of E. coli in these sites over several years, firstly using all parameters, and then only using satellite data to study their robustness. Various machine learning models (Random Forest, SVM, KNN, etc.) were tested and compared with each other (calculation of R², RMSE, MSE and MAPE). 

For the Bagre site, the best model of E. coli concentration had showed a R² of 0.76 (RMSE 0.49 log10 MPN/100mL) using in-situ and satellite data, and R² of 0.69 with only satellite data (RMSE 0.56 log10 MPN/100mL). For Kongou, the best model had showed a R² of 0.7 using in-situ and satellite data, and R² of 0.65 with only satellite data.

This work will allow to create health hazard indices that can be used by public health players, firstly in West Africa without the need to collect data in the field, and then more generally for other sites facing similar public health problems.

How to cite: Mant, M.-A., Robert, E., Grippa, M., Kergoat, L., Boubacar moussa, M., Funatsu, B., Perez Saez, J., Emma, R. N., and Robin, M.: Temporal modeling of surface water bacteriological quality in West Africa using remote sensing and machine learning methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11562, 2025.

EGU25-12690 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Multiparametric Modeling of Bacterial Release and Overland Transport from Feces: Insights from Rainfall Experiments and Molecular Diagnostic Tools  

Yanhe Zhou, Rita Linke, Regina Sommer, Gerhard Lindner, Peter Strauss, David Ramler, Alba Hykollari, Gabrielle Stalder, Raphael Anton Schatz, Katarina Priselac, Mats Leifels, Margaret Stevenson, Katalin Demeter, Alfred Paul Blaschke, Jack Schijven, Andreas Farnleitner, and Julia Derx

Water contamination caused by enteric microbial pathogens from humans and animals poses serious risks to public health. Rainfall events can induce the release of microorganisms from feces, and the health risks posed by these pathogens to water bodies are highly dependent on their transport and survival characteristics. Novel molecular tools and diagnostic capabilities have rapidly advanced in recent years, offering significant potential to revolutionize the study of microbial contamination and transport in water bodies and to enhance the modeling of overland transport of microorganisms through the application of these advanced diagnostic methods. This study employs rainfall-release experiments and pathogen enumeration in runoff and infiltrated water to investigate bacterial release and overland transport mechanisms from fresh cow feces, aiming to address gaps in advanced molecular techniques and to assess the impacts of fecal shape and aging on the precise quantification of bacterial overland transport (BOT).

Artificial rainfall experiments are conducted on fresh cow pat samples which are placed onto bare surfaces to study bacterial release and onto small scale undisturbed soil plots to study bacterial overland transport. The experimental setup includes three rainfall intensities (40 mm/h, 60 mm/h and 80 mm/h) and two slopes (5% and 25%). In addition, the effects of different fecal shapes are investigated (large and small surface area-to-volume ratios). The quantitative analyses are done for different microbial parameters (FIB, bacterial MST markers) using both culture-based and qPCR-based methods and the effects of experimental setups, microbial parameters, and enumeration methods will be compared and evaluated. The release will be modelled using the Bradford-Schijven model formulations, and Kineros2/STWIR will be used for modelling the BOT.

This study will improve the understanding of the release and transport of manure-borne pathogens from fresh cow pats and provide a more precise quantitative approach to measuring BOT using advanced diagnostic methods.

How to cite: Zhou, Y., Linke, R., Sommer, R., Lindner, G., Strauss, P., Ramler, D., Hykollari, A., Stalder, G., Anton Schatz, R., Priselac, K., Leifels, M., Stevenson, M., Demeter, K., Paul Blaschke, A., Schijven, J., Farnleitner, A., and Derx, J.: Multiparametric Modeling of Bacterial Release and Overland Transport from Feces: Insights from Rainfall Experiments and Molecular Diagnostic Tools , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12690, 2025.

EGU25-12827 | Orals | HS1.1.4

 Estimate public exposure to PAHs and environmental risks through wastewater-based epidemiology 

Katarzyna Styszko, Justyna Pamuła, Elżbieta Sochacka-Tatara, Agnieszka Pac, and Barbara Kasprzyk-Hordern

 Waterwater-based epidemiology (WBE) may be able to monitor public health emergencies by analyzing human urinary biomarkers in wastewater. This work proposes a novel approach utilizing WBE for the spatial and temporal evaluation of PAHs exposure using hydroxyl derivatives of PAHs. These are 1-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydroxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, 1-hydroxypyrene and 3-hydroxybenzo(a)pyrene. Most target markers were found at quantifiable concentrations in raw and treated wastewater. The total loads identified in raw sewage ranged from 88.33 g/day  to 154.77 g/day during the summer period and from 137.66 g/day to 283.78 2 g/day during the winter period. The obtained results for the removal efficiencies of OH-PAHs indicate a seasonal dependency in their degradation. Removal efficiencies were higher in January compared to August.

The results of the back calculations allowed to estimate that during the summer, on average, a resident of Krakow could absorb approximately 2.1 µg of the assessed OH-PAHs per day, while in winter, this value increased to 4.1 µg. This is close to the reported in the literature value that the total daily exposure to OH-PAHs is estimated at 3 µg/day.

Moreover, the risk quotation (RQ) values on the base of acute and chronic data base for compounds present in effluents were calculated. The RQ values in January were relatively low, but in August the RQ values were higher, indicating a high concentration of effluent and nitrogen in summer as these compounds were removed in winter and summer.

To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time wastewater profiling of OH-PAHs in wastewater for the evaluation of exposure to PAHs have been used, also their removal as well emission with effluent were determined. 

How to cite: Styszko, K., Pamuła, J., Sochacka-Tatara, E., Pac, A., and Kasprzyk-Hordern, B.:  Estimate public exposure to PAHs and environmental risks through wastewater-based epidemiology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12827, 2025.

EGU25-13044 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Stability of selected nitrification and urease inhibitors in surface water 

Lisa Michael, Eleonora Flores, Silke Pabst, and Sondra Klitzke

Nitrification (NI) and urease inhibitors (UI) are added as organic trace substances to agricultural land during the application of nitrogen and urea fertilizers. They inhibit the nitrification processes and urease activity in soil and thus ensure a reduced emission of gaseous ammonia and nitrous oxide. The application of UI has been mandatory since 2020 following the amendment to the German Fertilizer Ordinance, which means that increased use is to be expected. The substances can enter surface waters through translocation and leaching processes in soils. So far, the stability of NI and UI in the aqueous phase has only been investigated in ultrapure water and tap water. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the stability of five NI, i. e. 1H-1,2,4-triazoles (triazole), dicyandiamides (DCD), 3,4-dimethylpyrazoles (3,4-DMP), 3-methylpyrazoles (3-MP), N-((3(5)-Methyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)methyl)acetamid (MPA) and one UI, i. e. N-(2-nitrophenyl)phosphoric acid triamide (2-NPT), in two natural surface waters at 20 °C and at different pH values (i. e. pH 5, 7 and 9) using batch experiments. We distinguished between the processes of hydrolysis, sorption and microbial degradation. Hence, three differently treated triplicate batch samples were set up after the removal of suspended matter (> 0.63 mm). To investigate hydrolysis, the test water was filtered through a 0.22 μm polyamide membrane. For the investigation of sorption on suspended solids, a sodium azide solution was added to the water to inactivate microorganisms (final concentration in batch samples 100 mg/L). To investigate microbial degradation, the test water was used in its natural composition. pH values were adjusted using dilute HNO3 and NaOH, respectively. The six inhibitors were added as a mixture to each batch sample with a target concentration of 5 μg/L each. Batch samples were taken, subsequently filtered (0.45 µm, regenerated cellulose) and measured by HPLC-MS/MS over a period of 8 days for the sorption tests and 83 days for the hydrolysis and microbiological degradation experiments.

None of the investigated inhibitors showed any sorption on suspended solids. With regard to hydrolysis and microbial degradation, the results differed depending on inhibitor and pH. For MPA no decomposition by hydrolysis could be detected at all three pH values. However, MPA was microbially degraded at pH 7 and pH 9 and was no longer detectable after about 55 days. 2-NPT was hydrolytically degraded at pH 5 and 9 over the entire test period, but no hydrolysis was observed at pH 7. At pH 7, no microbial degradation could be detected for 70 days. Thus, 2-NPT is persistent at pH 7. At pH 9, our results did not show any microbial degradation for 2-NPT. The stability of inhibitors in surface waters is driven by hydrolysis and microbial degradation and may vary greatly with pH.

How to cite: Michael, L., Flores, E., Pabst, S., and Klitzke, S.: Stability of selected nitrification and urease inhibitors in surface water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13044, 2025.

EGU25-13064 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Fate of urease and nitrification inhibitors in surface water and saturated sediment 

Antonia Zieger, Eleonora Flores, Silke Pabst, and Sondra Klitzke

Nitrification and urease inhibitors (NI,UI) added to fertilisers can increase the availability of nitrogen to plants. By inhibiting certain processes, they could contribute to a reduction in the emission of N2O and NH3 compounds and a reduction in nitrate leaching. Some of these substances have already been detected in surface water and groundwater and are considered to be harmful to human health. The inhibitors are therefore an area of conflict between climate change mitigation and increased fertiliser efficiency on the one hand, and soil and groundwater protection on the other. However, knowledge of their abiotic and biotic degradation in water and saturated sediment systems is currently very limited.

The aim of this study is to determine the fate of the 6 most commonly used inhibitors 1H-1,2,4-Triazol (Triazole), Dicyandiamide (DCD), 3,4-Dimethylpyrazol (3,4-DMP), N-[(3 or 5-methyl-1H-pyrazol-1-)methyl]acetamid (MPA), 3-Methylpyrazol (3-MP) and N-(2-Nitrophenyl) phosphoric triamide (2-NPT) in surface water and saturated sandy sediments.

Triplicate batch samples containing either saturated water-sediment mixtures (solid-solution-ratio 1:3) or surface water only were spiked with six inhibitors (target concentration 1.5 µg/L each). Both sets were maintained under biotic or abiotic (autoclaved water and sediment) conditions at room temperature. The supernatant was sampled periodically for 90 days and analysed for inhibitors, pH, dissolved organic carbon and electrical conductivity.

None of the inhibitors were sorbed to the sediment except Triazole, which showed only minimal sorption of less than 10%. The urease inhibitor 2-NPT was partly decomposed by hydrolysis alone under the studied pH between 7-8.6. Degradation in general was most pronounced in the biotic water-sediment mixture where DCD and MPA were completely degraded and 3,4-DMP, 2-NPT and 3-MP were partially degraded. The Inhibitor MPA was very susceptible to biodegradation even in surface water, however, its forming metabolite 3-MP is not. Triazol was not degraded under any conditions in this study.

With the exception of Triazole, saturated sediments (for instance in a bank filtration scenario) could probably reduce most of the inhibitors’ concentrations if the microbial community is intact. However, four out of six inhibitors were not completely degraded even under biotic conditions within 90 days, making them susceptible to breakthroughs into groundwater. Therefore, their fate in the environment should be studied further.

How to cite: Zieger, A., Flores, E., Pabst, S., and Klitzke, S.: Fate of urease and nitrification inhibitors in surface water and saturated sediment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13064, 2025.

Cigarette smoking and its negative health effects are well documented; however, the environmental impacts of cigarettes are poorly understood. Moreover, considering cigarette butts (CBs) as one of the most littered items globally, exploring the relative environmental effects of different end-of-life (EoL) pathways is essential to design effective mitigation strategies. So, the objective of this study is to identify the environmental hotspots across the cigarette lifecycle—both upstream and downstream of consumption—and to compare the environmental impacts of three potential EoL pathways of the CBs using a comprehensive cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA). The results depicted that cigarette manufacturing accounted for the highest environmental impact (98.36%) among the upstream processes of the cigarette life cycle. Especially human carcinogenic toxicity emerged as the highest potent impact category (0.168 kg 1,4-DCB), followed by freshwater eutrophication (0.0014 kg P eq.) and freshwater ecotoxicity (0.0525 kg 1,4-DCB) for a single cigarette production. Additionally, the cigarette consumption phase also depicted the highest environmental impacts contributing to human carcinogenic toxicity (96.3%), primarily due to the release of hazardous air pollutants during smoking. Further, the relative environmental impacts of three EoL scenarios were analysed for a CB—incineration, littering and landfilling disposal. Among the EoL scenarios analysed, littering of CBs caused the highest environmental impacts, mainly due to the leaching of toxic contaminants into water bodies. Despite evidence that CBs contain over 150 highly toxic chemicals with carcinogenic and mutagenic properties, the lack of detailed, standardized databases for these substances limits the precision of environmental impact analyses. Future research should address this gap by developing comprehensive databases and standardized methodologies to incorporate the specific contaminants in CBs. Such advancements are essential for a more accurate and holistic evaluation of the environmental pollution associated with CB disposal and to guide effective mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Lourembam, N. and Vanapalli, K. R.: Life cycle assessment of Cigarette from cradle to grave: Identifying environmental hotspots and end-of-life scenario analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15223, 2025.

EGU25-16997 | Posters on site | HS1.1.4

Pesticide contamination across drinking water sources in the Netherlands 

Arnaut van Loon, Inge van Driezum, Tessa Pronk, and Sharon Clevers

Pesticides have been found in surface water and groundwater sources for decades. They are not only widely considered as a major threat for these waters, but also for drinking water. Not only pesticides that are still authorized by the European Commission can be found in the sources for drinking water, also banned compounds, such as atrazine (banned in 2007), still cause exceedances of environmental threshold values (as measured in 2020).

A comprehensive study was conducted in Dutch drinking water sources analyzing pesticides and their metabolites in both surface water and groundwater. Observations in surface water sources were divided in intake water and pre-treated water. For groundwater sources, observations were divided in observation wells, individual abstraction wells and all abstraction wells per particular drinking water abstraction station. Dutch drinking water standards were used as a measure of the implications for drinking water production processes.

This study shows that 156 different pesticides or metabolites were found at the nine surface water intake points considered. The standard for this substance group was exceeded on several occasions at all intake points. Pesticide residues have also been found in 40% of groundwater abstractions for drinking water production, particularly in phreatic ones (77%). This also involves a diversity of different substances. Pesticide residues exceeded the standard in 20% of groundwater abstractions. The pressure on surface water quality due to pesticides as indicated by the Removal Requirement Index seems to decrease slightly in recent years, whereas the pressure on groundwater intended for drinking water production seems to increase. Due to the diversity of pesticides found in ground- and surface water, trends are not obvious. Which and how many pesticides were observed differs between observation wells, abstraction wells and the combined abstraction wells, as well as aquifer properties.

How to cite: van Loon, A., van Driezum, I., Pronk, T., and Clevers, S.: Pesticide contamination across drinking water sources in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16997, 2025.

EGU25-19192 | Orals | HS1.1.4

Development and Validation of a GIS-Based Tool for Disinfection Byproduct Formation Prediction in Water Distribution Systems 

Demetrios G. Eliades, Stelios G. Vrachimis, Pavlos Pavlou, and Marios Kyriakou

Disinfection of water in distribution systems is essential for ensuring the microbiological safety of drinking water. However, disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are chemical compounds formed when disinfectants, such as chlorine, react with natural organic matter (NOM) and other constituents in water. The formation of DBPs in drinking water distribution systems can pose health risks, including cancer and reproductive issues, necessitating robust strategies to predict and mitigate their presence.

As part of the EU-funded IntoDBP project, a comprehensive real-world case study was conducted in Limassol, Cyprus, to investigate DBP formation within a water distribution system. The study included monitoring the hydraulic and water quality states of the system, from the Drinking Water Treatment Plant (DWTP) to end-users. This complete system perspective allowed for the evaluation of key factors affecting DBP formation, such as water source characteristics, residence time, and chlorination practices.

This work presents the process of creating a DBP modeling tool, detailing the methods used to address challenges related to the integration of heterogeneous data sources. Data from the DWTP, re-chlorination points, and distribution nodes were harmonized to ensure accurate representation of both hydraulic conditions and chemical reactions. Models capable of predicting DBP formation were developed as part of the study, with a specific focus on trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). These models were validated using real-time data from sensors and manual sampling.

Alongside these models, a GIS-based software tool was developed to explore strategies for minimizing DBP levels within distribution networks. This tool visualizes data from multiple sources, including SCADA systems, water quality sensors, and GIS data, enabling dynamic simulations and scenario testing. Advanced simulation techniques using EPANET-MSX facilitated the simulation of multi-species reactions and the incorporation of uncertainties, such as variations in source water composition and operational conditions. The tool provides researchers and practitioners with the capability to evaluate and optimize chlorination practices, water mixing strategies, and operational configurations to mitigate DBP risks effectively.

Results from the case study highlighted the critical role of water residence time and source water composition in DBP formation. Nodes farther from chlorination points and those receiving water with higher NOM levels exhibited elevated DBP concentrations, emphasizing the importance of optimizing hydraulic and chemical parameters throughout the distribution system. The developed software tool demonstrated the potential of integrating GIS and hydraulic data with chemical analyses. It also showed promise in evaluating various mitigation strategies, including dynamic chlorination schedules and adjustments in flow management, within a realistic setup. This tool offers a valuable resource for researchers and water utility operators, providing a benchmark platform for developing and validating innovative DBP management strategies.

How to cite: Eliades, D. G., Vrachimis, S. G., Pavlou, P., and Kyriakou, M.: Development and Validation of a GIS-Based Tool for Disinfection Byproduct Formation Prediction in Water Distribution Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19192, 2025.

EGU25-19916 | Orals | HS1.1.4

AMR pollution dynamics determined by the untreated wastewater domination of both the hydrology and point source loads to the Musi River, Hyderabad 

Joshua Larsen, Vikas Sonkar, Arun Kashyap, Rebeca Pallarés-Vega, Ankit Modi, Cansu Uluseker, Pranab Mohapatra, David Graham, and Jan-Ulrich Kreft

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a silent pandemic, which is transmitted and spread through the environment. Throughout the global south, large urban areas interact with, and often exert considerable control on, both the hydrological and pollution dynamics on the rivers they are built around. Despite this, little is known about the prevalence, sources, and transport of AMR through these common, yet complex environments. Here, we quantified taxonomic and resistance genes (ARGs), sensitive and resistant bacteria (ARBs), and environmental conditions in both river water and sediment along the Musi River in Hyderabad, a city renowned for antimicrobial manufacturing and urban dominance of the river environment. We also developed estimates of urban wastewater inputs and a hydraulic model to understand the rapid changes in river flow and pollution concentrations occurring along the river length through the city. This reveals increasing, though variable, concentrations in ARGs along the river through the dry season, and stronger discrete point source and flow dilution dynamics in the wet season. The riverbed sediment stores far higher concentrations than the water column, especially in the dry season, and has more dynamic interaction with the river during the wet season. This study reveals the importance of both flow and removal dynamics in controlling AMR prevalence in the environment, in a context that is both common and expanding throughout the global south.

How to cite: Larsen, J., Sonkar, V., Kashyap, A., Pallarés-Vega, R., Modi, A., Uluseker, C., Mohapatra, P., Graham, D., and Kreft, J.-U.: AMR pollution dynamics determined by the untreated wastewater domination of both the hydrology and point source loads to the Musi River, Hyderabad, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19916, 2025.

EGU25-21206 | Orals | HS1.1.4

Co-occurrence of antibiotics, antimicrobial resistance genes and wastewater indicators in surface waters near Bangkok, Thailand: Characterization, Distribution & Controls 

Laura Richards, George J. L. Wilson, Ajmal Roshan, Farah T. Ahmed, Mariel Perez-Zabaleta, Santiago Nicolás Otaiza-González, Sara Rodríguez-Mozaz, Zeynep Cetecioglu, and David A. Polya

Aquatic pollution from emerging contaminants, including antibiotics and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes, is an important environmental concern particularly pertinent in megacities such as Bangkok, Thailand, impacted by rapid urbanization and massive water demand.  Using a suite of environmental and hydrogeochemical tracers including inorganics and organics, nutrients, metal(loids), select antibiotics and AMR genes [1, 2], we characterize the distribution and spatial patterns of a range of contaminants in a ~ 150 km transect of the Chao Phraya River Basin in Thailand capturing areas both upstream and downstream of Bangkok.  A range of antibiotics and AMR genes were identified in parts of the transect and downstream trends are investigated.  Co-occurrence between selected antibiotics and AMR genes was not statistically significant, although other significant hydrogeochemical relationships (e.g. between pH and selected AMR genes) were observed, suggesting complex controls and selection pressures.  Comparisons are made with the types and concentrations of similar compounds detected in other major river and groundwater systems near other rapidly developing cities in South Asia (e.g. Patna, India) [3-5].  This work highlights the added interpretive value of a comprehensive range of analytes and provides insight on the potential co-occurrence of antibiotics, antimicrobial resistance genes and wastewater indicators that may be observed in surface waters in such settings.

Acknowledgements: We acknowledge support from a UKRI ODA allocation (via UoM to DP et al), a UoM-KTH strategic partnership seedcorn award (to LAR & ZC), a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/Y016327/1 to LAR et al), a DKOF (to LAR), Cookson Studentship (to AR), and the Resistomap team.

References: [1] Larsson & Flach, Nature Reviews Microbiology, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-021-00649-x; [2] Hutinel et al., Science of the Total Environment, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151433; [3] Wilson et al., Environmental Pollution, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2024.124205; [4] Richards et al., Environmental Pollution, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121626; [5] Richards et al., Environmental Pollution, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115765.

How to cite: Richards, L., Wilson, G. J. L., Roshan, A., Ahmed, F. T., Perez-Zabaleta, M., Otaiza-González, S. N., Rodríguez-Mozaz, S., Cetecioglu, Z., and Polya, D. A.: Co-occurrence of antibiotics, antimicrobial resistance genes and wastewater indicators in surface waters near Bangkok, Thailand: Characterization, Distribution & Controls, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21206, 2025.

EGU25-21831 | Orals | HS1.1.4

Pathogen removal in sandy aquifers: lessons from multiple field and column studies for safe water supply

Gertjan Medema, Bas van der Zaan, Martin van der Schans, and Gijsbert Cirkel

EGU25-904 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Microplastic deposition in streams under moving bedforms 

Verena Levy Sturm and Shai Arnon

Microplastic (MP) is ubiquitously found in aquatic environments and poses a significant environmental challenge. However, what controls MP deposition and burial in river networks is unclear, especially when sediments are in motion. This study addresses this gap by examining the impact of streambed motion and particle size on microplastic deposition in sandy streambeds. Experiments were conducted in a stainless-steel flume (650 cm x 20 cm) filled with 25 cm of silica sand (D50 = 0.6 mm) and water (depth = 12 cm). A centrifugal pump circulated the water and maintained a constant stream water velocity. During the first experiment, the velocity of the water was 0.53 m/s, and the streambed celerity was 4 m/hr. The second experiment was conducted under stationary bedforms, with a water velocity of 0.15 m/s. Polypropylene (PP) fibers at lengths of 25 μm, 100 μm, 200 μm, and 2000 μm, and carboxylated Polystyrene (PS) microspheres (diameter of 0.5 μm, 1 μm, and 5 μm) were added to the stream water and their concentration in the water was measured over three days. The deposition of the MP was inferred from the decline of MP in the streamwater. A control experiment was conducted by repeating the same experiments but without sediments. After the relatively fast initial decline in MP, further reduction in MP concentrations in the water occurred due to deposition. Different deposition dynamics were observed for fibers and microspheres. Buried MP particles were partly resuspended during the scouring of the ripples during their movement. It was found that PP fibers 25 μm and 0.5 μm spheres were more mobile in the sediment than longer fibers and larger spheres, respectively. We explain their higher deposition than larger particles by a potential advective movement through the porous media, leading to their transport below the scour zone. PP fibers ≥ 100 μm were immobile within the sediment, and thus, their deposition was only due to burial by the ripple motion. In my presentation I will be comparing the results from the moving bed experiment to the stationary bed experiment and highlight the effect of bed motion. Our results hint at the significant influence of moving sediments on MP and the importance of considering MP size for catchment-scale modeling to predict MP fluxes to oceans. Deposition locations are also likely to be affected by bed motions and thus should be considered when developing effective sampling strategies.

How to cite: Levy Sturm, V. and Arnon, S.: Microplastic deposition in streams under moving bedforms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-904, 2025.

EGU25-952 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

From roads to rivers: Field experiments on road-related macroplastic input to mountain river system 

Wojciech Haska, Maciej Liro, Elżbieta Gorczyca, and Paweł Mikuś

The phenomenon of littering along roadways has been extensively studied [1][2][3][4], with research indicating that a significant portion of roadside litter now consists of plastic materials [1][3]. This issue has detrimental effects on the aesthetic value of landscapes, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and human health [5]. These risks are particularly pronounced in mountainous regions, which are especially vulnerable due to the necessity of constructing road infrastructure in valley bottoms adjacent to river channels. The transfer of plastic from roads to rivers is influenced by its intrinsic properties (e.g., mass-to-surface-area ratio) and various extrinsic factors (e.g., terrain slope, wind, precipitation, land cover, and vegetation types).

Here, we present initial findings from a year-long field experiment conducted at 16 locations within the valley bottom of the Kamienica Gorczańska River in the Polish Carpathians. This study tracked the movement of 288 litter objects, including various types of macroplastics. The results demonstrated that plastic debris can be remobilized over distances exceeding 8,5 meters within a single season, with this displacement influenced by slope (R2= 0,46) and type of plastic debris. These findings highlight the critical need to understand the interactions between roadways and river ecosystems to better evaluate the contribution of roadside littering to plastic pollution in rivers, particularly in mountainous environments.

Keywords: plastic pollution, road system, mountain rivers.



References:

[1] Cowger, W., Gray, A., Hapich, H., Osei-Enin, J., Olguin, S., Huynh, B., Nogi, H., Singh, S., Brownlee, S., Fong, F., Lok, T., Singer, G., Ajami, H., 2022, Litter origins, accumulation rates, and hierarchical composition on urban roadsides of the Inland Empire, California, (17), 015007

[2] Gray, N., Gray, R., 2004, Litter deposition on minor rural roads in Ireland, Municipal Engineer, (157), 185-192.

[3] Ledieu, L., Tramoy, R., Ricordel, S., Astrie, D., Tassin, B., & Gasperi, J. (2022). Amount, composition and sources of macrolitter from a highly frequented roadway. Environmental Pollution, 303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119145

[4] Pietz, O., Augenstein, M., Georgakakos, C. B., Singh, K., McDonald, M., & Walter, M. T. (2021). Macroplastic accumulation in roadside ditches of New York State’s Finger Lakes region (USA) across land uses and the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Environmental Management, 298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113524

[5] MacLeod M., Arp, HPH., Tekman, MB., Jahnke, A. (2021). The global threat from plastic pollution. Science. 373(6550):61-65. doi: 10.1126/science.abg5433

How to cite: Haska, W., Liro, M., Gorczyca, E., and Mikuś, P.: From roads to rivers: Field experiments on road-related macroplastic input to mountain river system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-952, 2025.

EGU25-2055 | Orals | HS1.1.5

Leveraging Sedimentary Process Insights to Enhance Understanding of Microplastic Deposition in Rivers 

Shai Arnon, Verena Sturm, Eshel Peleg, and Yoni Teitelbaum

River networks are the major pathways for microplastic (MP) transport from terrestrial environments to oceans. However, the ability to quantify the water–sediment exchange of MPs, locations of deposition, and the time scales over which burial occurs is limited and thus often our estimation of where MP deposit is biased. To fill this gap, previous work on processes that control MP deposition will be briefly reviewed, with the aim of enhancing our understanding of the dynamic interplay between flow, sediment transport, and MP deposition. Detailed studies on MP deposition onto surficial sediment show that MP transport can be explained by the shear stress theory, hyporheic exchange, and bioturbation. Nevertheless, these processes cannot fully explain the observed distribution of MPs in deeper river sediments. It is proposed that bedform movement, channel reworking, bar formation, and aggradation/degradation at the river network scale should be included when estimating MP deposition. Results from flume experiments and a numerical model will be shown to explain potential processes that can lead to the burial of MP beneath the moving streambeds, which provides a mechanism for long-term accumulation and may explain resuspension events characterized by high MP loads during floods. It is argued that incorporating data on MP distribution in riverbeds with fluvial geomorphological and particle transport models will improve the current evaluation of MP transport in river networks.

How to cite: Arnon, S., Sturm, V., Peleg, E., and Teitelbaum, Y.: Leveraging Sedimentary Process Insights to Enhance Understanding of Microplastic Deposition in Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2055, 2025.

EGU25-3035 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Modeling the evolution of nanoplastic particle aggregation in aquatic systems 

Melissa Kozhaya, Valentina Prigiobbe, and Dong Zhang

Nanoplastics (NPs) are defined as nanoparticles that are intentionally manufactured in this size range or that originate from the unintentional degradation of larger plastic fragments. Nanoplastics (NPs) are defined as nanoparticles that originate from the unintentional degradation of plastic that
breaks down into nanoscale particles. Because of their size, buoyancy, and surface properties, NPs are very mobile. In fact, they can be found in aquatic environments, soils, the atmosphere, and even in the human body. During travel across long distances, NPs undergo several processes, including advection, dispersion, and aggregation. If the first two are considered in conventional transport models, the latter is generally neglected. Aggregation consists of the formation of closely attached NPs that can reach the size of colloids, favoring settling and retention within the soil, thereby reducing the NP migration distance. Developing a model that accounts for aggregation is, therefore, a paramount for accurate transport prediction of NPs in the environment. 
Here we present a mechanistic model of NP aggregation over a broad range of conditions that resemble natural aquatic environments. The model combines the mass conservation equation of the population balance equation (PBE) with the constitutive equations based on the extended DLVO theory. The model was verified with data of the evolution of the hydrodynamic diameter of polyester NPs from the literature and used to predict the behavior of a variety of plastic materials such as polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The model agrees very well
with the data, and no parameter fitting is required as it is based on the physical-chemical properties of the system, e.g., the zeta potential of the suspension. The results in general show that as pH or salinity increase NPs aggregation becomes more important; whereas, organic material inhibits aggregation. The change of the polymer type may affect the magnitude of the aggregation phenomenon but in all cases the effect of bio-geochemical properties change of the solution stays the same.

How to cite: Kozhaya, M., Prigiobbe, V., and Zhang, D.: Modeling the evolution of nanoplastic particle aggregation in aquatic systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3035, 2025.

EGU25-3136 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Determining the settling and rising velocities of the top polluting macroplastics in rivers  

James Lofty, Daniel Valero, and Mário Franca

The transport mechanisms of plastic pollution in rivers are currently poorly understood, hindering our ability to accurately monitor plastics, predict their fluxes, and ultimately intercept them. However, it has recently been shown that turbulent transport models designed for natural sediments, such as the Rouse model, can be used to quantify the vertical distribution of suspended plastic pollution in rivers with an uncertainty of within ±10%, despite differences in bed load or surfaced transport. These models are based on the ratio of the river’s shear velocity to the plastic’s settling (or rising) velocity, which has been shown to be represented by mono- or multi-model probability functions, due to variation in plastic shape, size, density and biofilm colonisation. In order for a Rouse-based model to be applicable as a method of monitoring plastics, and quantifying their concentration and transport in real rivers, a database of the settling velocities of the most commonly occurring macroplastic pollution in rivers, and their probability functions, is needed.

This study aims to explain the settling/rising velocities of the most commonly observed riverine plastics and to describe their full statistical functions. This includes calculating each plastic’s mono- or multi-model settling/rising velocity probability distribution. To achieve this, a state-of-the-art 2 × 2 × 2 m3 settling tank and a high-speed, synchronous multi-camera set up, with an automated plastic detection routine, will be used to describe the dynamics and calculate the settling/rising velocities and full probabilistic functions of the most prominent macroplastic items found in rivers. The plastic samples used in experiments will represent categories within the River-OSPAR litter index, which is an index used to classify plastics pollution by their type, size and material. This includes categories such as plastic cups, food wrappers, and cigarette filters. The data generated from these experiments can be used to shape Rouse-like transport models that can predict the vertical positioning and the concentration profiles of River-OPSAR plastics in the suspended layers of rivers, thus supporting the development of more accurate monitoring strategies for plastics in rivers and improving plastic quantification methods.

How to cite: Lofty, J., Valero, D., and Franca, M.: Determining the settling and rising velocities of the top polluting macroplastics in rivers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3136, 2025.

EGU25-3846 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Tracing Plastic Pathways: Laboratory Validation and Sensitivity Insights in Overland Transport Numerical Models 

Nazife Oruc Baci, Félix Luis Santiago Collazo, and Jenna Jambeck

Plastic pollution is a significant environmental problem of high magnitude, with far-reaching impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Plastic has various pathways to reach the ocean, with the land-to-ocean route being a critical one. Across both terrestrial and marine environments, plastic pollution threatens biodiversity, disrupts food chains, and accumulates in remote regions. Despite its importance, the mechanisms governing this transition remain understudied, particularly in overland systems. In this study, experiments in the laboratory are used in conjunction with numerical modeling tools to study the hydrodynamics of plastic transport overland under ideal conditions. Laboratory experiments utilized a controlled flume setup that simulates overland flow and analyzes the movement of plastic bottles, considering variations in size, shape, orientation, and weight. Then, numerical simulations were conducted to recreate the laboratory experiments as a simplified finite-element flume domain using a loosely coupled hydrodynamic and particle tracking framework. The framework was then validated against experimental results that proved the model's capability to reproduce the observed transport patterns. After validation, simulations were extended to a real-life-scale idealized domain to investigate the sensitivity of plastic transport to various parameters through a sensitivity analysis. The main results show the dependency of plastic mobility on hydrodynamic forces and particle characteristics. This integrated approach gives insight into overland plastic transport and informs mitigation strategies for plastic pollution in terrestrial environments. Future work will extend these findings to real-world scenarios, evaluating the interplay of rainfall and coastal flooding in plastic mobilization, such as during compound flood events. Thus, this research lays the foundation for developing comprehensive models that enhance our understanding of plastic pollution dynamics and support efforts to protect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems from the escalating impacts of plastic waste.

How to cite: Oruc Baci, N., Santiago Collazo, F. L., and Jambeck, J.: Tracing Plastic Pathways: Laboratory Validation and Sensitivity Insights in Overland Transport Numerical Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3846, 2025.

EGU25-4210 | Orals | HS1.1.5 | Highlight

The role of benthic biofilms in trapping estuarine microplastics 

Julie Hope, Melanie Chocholek, James Rimmer, Anne Baar, Robert Thomas, David Paterson, Lisa Harrison, Roberto Fernández, and Daniel Parsons

Benthic biofilms are known for their ability to stabilise and trap fine estuarine sediments and contaminants. Due to their presence on the sediment surface, benthic biofilms interact with emerging contaminants such as microplastics (MPs) that settle to the bed, potentially influencing MP transport dynamics from land to sea. This study explores the influence of benthic biofilm development on the capture and retention of MPs under flow and how other chemical stressors adsorbed to the MPs, such as heavy metals, may influence biofilm retention of MPs. We hypothesised that i) higher biofilm development would increase MP capture and retention under flow and ii) that heavy metals associated with MPs would negatively affect the biofilm community and its ability to retain MPs.

Sieved sediment (500µm to remove large fauna) was added to small 250mL chambers and inoculated with 30mL of biofilm-rich surface sediment (control-absent, low and high biofilm biomass). Tidal simulation in an outdoor greenhouse promoted biofilm development in chambers over 21 days. High-density MPs (polyamide) MPs were added to the chambers at ‘high tide’ on day 14. These MPs were mechanically- and UV-aged then exposed to heavy metals (control (no metal), copper (Cu) and lead (Pb)) prior to their use. MPs were also fluorescently stained with a non-toxic dye to aid in MP erosion measurements. At the end of the incubation period, intact inner cores were gently removed, flushed and placed level with the bed of a small benchtop recirculating flume and exposed to incremental increases in flow velocity to erode the MPs. All experimental runs were filmed under UV light to fluoresce MPs and image analysis was used to determine the critical erosion threshold for MP motion from the video footage based on the loss of coverage across the core area. The remaining sediment from the chambers was extracted for biochemical analysis. 

Significantly higher critical shear stresses were required to remove MPs from the bed when biofilm was present, while Cu and Pb contamination had minimal effects on MP resuspension. This suggests that benthic biofilms have the potential to mediate MP resuspension dynamics and therefore MP transport from land-to-sea. Comparing our MP erosion thresholds (for PA particles only) against the bed shear stresses from a 2-D hydrodynamic model of the macrotidal Humber estuary, UK, it was found that MP erosion thresholds would be exceed in ~76% of the modelled cells during a 10-day simulation period covering a late-neap, spring, early-neap tidal cycle in the absence of biofilms. However, the presence of biofilm reduced the area of critical shear stress exceedance to ~36%. Without biofilms, MP erosion thresholds would be exceeded in 80% of the permanently inundated cells and 11.3% of the intertidal cells. Again, with biofilms present, MP erosion thresholds would be exceeded in 38% of the permanently inundated cells and just 3.8% of the intertidal cells. These findings can help improve our understanding of MP fluxes across the sediment-water interface in estuaries and provides evidence that the role of benthic biofilms should be included when parameterising MP transport models. 

How to cite: Hope, J., Chocholek, M., Rimmer, J., Baar, A., Thomas, R., Paterson, D., Harrison, L., Fernández, R., and Parsons, D.: The role of benthic biofilms in trapping estuarine microplastics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4210, 2025.

EGU25-5849 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

How Microplastics Cross the Buoyancy Barrier 

Thomas Witzmann, Anja F.R.M. Ramsperger, Hao Liu, Holger Schmalz, Andreas Greiner, Christian Laforsch, Stephan Gekle, Holger Kress, Andreas Fery, and Günter K. Auernhammer

Microplastic (MP) particles in the environment are covered by a so-called eco-corona. The eco-corona is made up of natural organic matter (NOM) like biomolecules, humic substances and other natural molecules. NOM substantially changes the surface properties of MP particles and therefore the interaction with other surfaces in the aqueous environment influencing their heteroaggregation behaviour.

Using Colloidal Probe-AFM we studied the interactions of eco-corona covered MP particles with model sand particles on the nanoscale. Measurements were performed in different ionic concentrations to mimic changing environmental conditions. We found that the eco-corona is able to *pull* at the model sand colloidal probe by macromolecular bridging. Simulations verified the stability of these heteroaggregates under flow. With heteroaggregation experiments and following Raman-Imaging we verified the presence and stability of these aggregates on the microscale.

In conclusion, we present macromolecular bridging as an eco-corona mediated heteroaggregation mechanism. It is present at monovalent salt concentrations > 1 mM and dependent on the eco-corona surface coverage. This mechanism is able to contribute substantially to MP particle heteroaggregation in the aqueous environment and explains how MPs cross the buoyancy barrier.

How to cite: Witzmann, T., Ramsperger, A. F. R. M., Liu, H., Schmalz, H., Greiner, A., Laforsch, C., Gekle, S., Kress, H., Fery, A., and Auernhammer, G. K.: How Microplastics Cross the Buoyancy Barrier, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5849, 2025.

EGU25-7830 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Towards Understanding Drivers of Plastic Embrittlement and Fragmentation in Coastal Environments 

Astrid Delorme, Laurent Lebreton, Sarah-Jeanne Royer, Mael Arhant, Maelenn Le Gall, and Pierre-Yves Le Gac

The fragmentation of plastic in the environment directly influences particle size, buoyancy, transport, and sedimentation dynamics, shaping their fate and interactions within aquatic systems. Notably fragmentation of plastic particles in coastal environments has been observed to be faster than in the open ocean due to high temperature (heat-build up in the sand), high oxygen levels, high exposure to solar radiation (due to little vegetation coverage) and mechanical forces from waves and sediment movements which accelerates the cracking and fragmentation of plastic debris. However, understanding the drivers of fragmentation based on intrinsic properties of plastic—such as brittleness, a key precursor to fragmentation—remains challenging due to the irregular shapes, weathered conditions, and small sizes of environmental samples, which often do not meet the criteria for standardized mechanical testing. Here we present our study where we investigated the fragmentation and brittleness of field-collected plastic particles using a simple laboratory fragmentation test. Our fragmentation test assessed whether beach-sampled plastic particles would break (brittle) or remain intact (ductile) under fixed pressure, enabling the collection of a large dataset (16,322 plastic particles) for statistical analysis of the number of brittle particles on the beach. To further investigate what drives the brittleness of the sampled polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) particles, we investigated a subsample of PE and PP particles, including both brittle and ductile particles, focusing on their physicochemical traits that might explain their extent of weathering and links to their observed brittleness. We found that the brittleness of sampled plastics strongly correlates with advanced degradation, characterized by very low average molecular weights (as low as 7 kg mol⁻¹) and the presence of oxidation products. Furthermore, we observed that brittle particles were significantly smaller than their ductile counterparts, underscoring the role of fragmentation in shaping the size distribution of plastics on beaches. Additionally, through this fragmentation test, we established, to our knowledge, the first embrittlement criterion for plastics collected from the environment. To further explore fragmentation of plastics in coastal environments, we use a beach swash-zone laboratory simulator to investigate the fragmentation of polymers aged under controlled laboratory conditions. This allows us to correlate the extent of degradation with fragmentation behavior, providing additional insights into the fragmentation processes of brittle plastics in dynamic coastal environments. By highlighting the brittleness of plastic samples on beaches, our study underscores the significant risks of secondary microplastic generation from degraded, brittle plastics in dynamic beach environments. This study also aims to contribute to the overall understanding of the chemical and physical processes that drive fragmentation in aquatic systems, in our case coastal environments, which can aid to inform targeted intervention strategies to prevent microplastics from entering the environment.

How to cite: Delorme, A., Lebreton, L., Royer, S.-J., Arhant, M., Le Gall, M., and Le Gac, P.-Y.: Towards Understanding Drivers of Plastic Embrittlement and Fragmentation in Coastal Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7830, 2025.

EGU25-9865 | Orals | HS1.1.5

Microplastics in turbidity currents: transport and sedimentation 

jordi colomer, marianna soler, florian pohl, and teresa serra

The environmental pollution from plastics is steadily increasing, reaching 390.7 million tons in 2021 (Plastics Europe, 2022). Between 2% and 5 % of MPs produced worldwide, may ultimately find their way into the ocean, where they accumulate on the deep seafloor (Phuong et al., 2021), infiltrate into hyporheic zones (Mancini et al., 2023) or may remain in suspension in the water column (Zobkov et al. 2019). MPs have been reported not only in marine and coastal areas (Jung et al., 2021) but also in Marine Protected Areas (Zachello Nunes et al., 2023). Consequently, plastic pollution is recognized one of the most serious anthropogenic generated pollutants affecting aquatic ecosystems.

MPs can be transported and deposited by turbidity currents from shallow waters to the deep ocean (Pohl et al., 2020). This study contributes to further knowledge about the transport and the depositional patterns of MPs by turbidity currents related to different factors:  the MP shape, the MP density and the sediments’ characteristics. To mimic turbidity currents transporting MPs, lock-exchange flume experiments were performed with sediment contaminated with three types of microplastics: PET fibers, PVC fragments, and melamine fragments. These MPs were selected to represent a range of densities and shapes. The study revealed distinct sedimentation patterns: higher sediment concentrations enhance MP transport, and turbidity currents with finer sediments transported MPs over greater distances, highlighting the important role of sediment in transporting MPs in the propagation of turbidity currents. Further, MP sedimentation patterns varied with MP-particle shape, size, and density, highlighting the crucial role of MP particle properties in determining MP distribution in turbidites. These findings enhance our understanding of the mechanisms controlling the spatial distribution of MPs in marine sedimentary-environments and underscores the importance of considering both hydrodynamic and particle-specific factors when addressing the complex behaviour of MPs.

References

Plastics Europe, 2022. Plastics- the Facts 2022. An analysis of European plastics production, demand and waste data.

Phuong, N.N., Fauvelle, V., Grenz, C., Ourgaud, M., Schmidt, N., Strady, E., Sempéré, R., 2021. Highlights from a review of microplastics in marine sediments, STOTEN, 777.

Mancini M., Francalanci S., Innocenti L., Solari L., 2023a. Investigations on microplastic infiltration within natural riverbed sediments. STOTEN, 904, 167256.

Jung, J.W., Park, J.W., Eo, S., Choi, J., Song, Y.K., Choi, Y., Hong, S.H. and Shim, W.J. 2021. Ecological risk assessment of microplastics in coastal, shelf and deep sea waters with a consideration of environmentally relevant size and shape. Environmental Pollution. 270, 116217.

Pohl, F., Eggenhuisen, J. T., Kane, I. A., Clare, M. A., 2020. Transport and Burial of Microplastics in Deep-Marine Sediments by Turbidity Currents. Environmental Science & Technology, 54(7), 4180–4189.

Zachello Nunes, B., de Oliveira Soares, M., Zanardi-Lamardo, E., Braga Castro, I. 2023. Marine Protected Areas Affected by the most extensiveOil Spill on the Southwestern Atlantic coast. Ocean and Coastal Research, 71(2), e23028,

Zobkov, M.B. , Esiukova, E.E. , Zyubin, A.Y. , Samusev, I.G., 2019. Microplastic content variation in water column: The observations employing a novel sampling tool in stratified Baltic Sea, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 138, 193-205. 

How to cite: colomer, J., soler, M., pohl, F., and serra, T.: Microplastics in turbidity currents: transport and sedimentation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9865, 2025.

Microplastics and antibiotics are prevalent and emerging pollutants in aquatic ecosystems, but their interaction in aquatic food chains remains largely unexplored. This study investigated the impact of polypropylene microplastics (PP-MPs) on oxytetracycline (OTC) trophic transfer from the shrimp (Neocaridina denticulate) to crucian carp (Carassius auratus), and determined the responses of gut microbiota and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) by macrogenomic sequencing. The carrier effects of PP-MPs promoted OTC bioaccumulation and trophic transfer, which exacerbated enteroclysis, vacuolization and eosinophilic necrosis of fish hepatocytes. The presence of PP-MPs significantly enhanced the inhibitory effect of OTC on the intestinal lysozyme activity and complement C3 level in shrimp and fish, as well as the hepatic immunoglobulin M level in fish (p < 0.05). The single exposure of OTC induced the abundance of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes in shrimp, and Bacteroidetes in fish, while the combination with MPs obviously increased the abundance of Actinobacteria in shrimp and Firmicutes in fish, which caused disturbances in carbohydrate, amino acid and energy metabolism. Moreover, OTC exacerbated the enrichment of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in aquatic animals, and the carrier effects of PP-MPs obviously increased the diversity and abundance of ARGs and facilitated the trophic transfer of teta and tetm in the co-exposure group. Tetracycline (tetm, tetb, tet36, tetc) and streptomycin (aac6ib) resistance genes were significantly positively correlated with the potential hosts Clostridium, unclassified_f_Clostridiaceae and Bacteroides. Our findings disclosed the impacts of PP-MPs on the mechanism of antibiotic toxicity in the aquatic food chain and further emphasized the importance of the trophic transfer of ARGs by the gut microbiota, which contributed to a deeper understanding of the potential risks posed by combined pollution of MPs and antibiotics on aquatic ecosystems.

Granphical Abstract

How to cite: Zhang, P. and Lu, G.: Effect of microplastics on oxytetracycline trophic transfer: Immune, gut microbiota and antibiotic resistance gene responses, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10343, 2025.

EGU25-10584 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Simulating microplastics temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms and giving insights on sources 

Guilherme Calabro Souza, Celestine Bessaire, Alban de Lavenne, Bruno J. Lemaire, Lucas Friceau, Bruno Tassin, and Rachid Dris

At the scale of a watershed, the microplastic (MP) fluxes within and between compartments contribute to the contamination of the air-soil-water continuum. The sources and fluxes of microplastics vary greatly depending on land use and human activities within the watershed. The quantifying of MP – sampling and analysis – is a time-consuming task which limits the monitoring of the fine temporal dynamics of MP. The objective of this work is to simulate the MP dynamics in the outlet of a peri-urban watershed and to gain insight into the sources. The study site is the Avenelles sub-catchment, 50 km east of Paris (France), and surface of ~50 km2, and it is an experimental site highly instrumented for physico-chemical parameters of the hydrographic network and meteorology. The subcatchment is dominated by agricultural activities, which account for 81% of its surface area, while 18% is forested, and 1% is urbanized. The arable land in the catchment is drained and its influence on the flow rate regime is characterized by flash floods. Samples of MP were collected at the watershed outlet during 2023 using a Universal Filtration Object and analysed using the micro Fourrier Transform Infra-Red. The main sources contributing to the MP dynamics are: loss of MP stocks in the soil via drainage system; remobilization of MP stocks in the sediments; the effluent of the water treatment plant (WWTP) and the stormwater overflows.

The MP modelling approach is based on a multilinear model using hydrological variables. The hydrological variables used were (i) the baseflow and the quickflow, estimated from a conceptual automated process, and, (ii) the filling rate of routing reservoir and the production reservoir simulated by the hydrological model GR4H. Simulations evaluated at the MP dynamics at hourly timestep at annual and rainy season time scales. Besides the streamflow characteristics and storages, the precipitation, via the index of previous precipitation, the water conductivity and the total suspended solids are input variables as well. On an annual scale, the most significant variables in the regression appear to be the TSS, the filling rate of the routing reservoir and the water conductivity (R2=0.89). Isolating the hydrological variables, the baseflow and the total flow presented significancy (R2=0.64). For the rainy season, fast flow and total flow are the variables contributing to the MP dynamics (R2=0.86). These results can indicate the MP sources : at annual simulation, denoting TSS and base flow as significant variables, the WWTP discharge might be the main source as it is constant throughout the year; During the rainy season, presents quick flow as major contribution highlighting the drainage system and thus the MP stocks in the soil as major source. In conclusion, this simple model provides a better understanding of the sources of MP at a catchment and a better estimate of the dynamics and contamination of MP.

How to cite: Calabro Souza, G., Bessaire, C., de Lavenne, A., J. Lemaire, B., Friceau, L., Tassin, B., and Dris, R.: Simulating microplastics temporal dynamics, driving mechanisms and giving insights on sources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10584, 2025.

EGU25-10844 | Orals | HS1.1.5

Evaluating settling velocities of microplastics-sediment mixtures under laboratory conditions  

Vania Ruiz-Gonzalez, Isabel Jalon-Rojas, and Sophie Defontaine

Microplastics (MPs) may be an important component of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in aquatic environments. These particles can be transported independently or as part of larger aggregates (flocs). Recent studies have highlighted that small microplastics (<160 µm) are predominantly transported within flocs across various aquatic systems. Flocculation notably affects the transport dynamics of MPs, particularly by modifying their settling velocities. This process is especially pronounced in estuarine environments, where salinity gradients, turbulence, high suspended sediment concentrations, and organic matter, creates unique conditions for floc formation and movement. This study investigates the settling behavior of small MPs (50-125 µm) and their mixtures with fine cohesive sediment under laboratory conditions. An optical settling column (System of Characterisation of Agregates and Flocs SCAF) was used to measure the settling velocities of MPs with varying characteristics (shape, size and density), both in clear water and when mixed with fine suspended sediments at concentrations representative of turbid estuaries, under previously agitated and no-agitated conditions. The results reveal that regular-shaped MPs exhibit higher settling velocities compared to irregular ones among larger particles (90–125 µm) with similar  density, while no such difference was observed for smaller particles (50–90 µm), highlighting the varying influence of particle shape with size. As expected, high-density particles settle faster, while larger particles also exhibit increased settling velocities due to reduced drag relative to their mass. The presence of fine sediments further enhances the settling velocities of smaller (50-90 µm) regular-shaped MPs and both smaller and larger (50-125 µm) fragmented MPs, particularly under previously agitated conditions, suggesting the occurrence of aggregation. A preliminary evaluation of several settling velocity models based on the calculation of drag coefficients, suggests that, unlike large microplastics, models conceived for natural particles align closely with observed data.

How to cite: Ruiz-Gonzalez, V., Jalon-Rojas, I., and Defontaine, S.: Evaluating settling velocities of microplastics-sediment mixtures under laboratory conditions , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10844, 2025.

EGU25-14846 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Influence of suspended sediment concentration on the settling velocity of irregularly shaped microplastic particles 

Prasad Owk, Venu Chandra, and Holger Schuttrumpf

Settling velocity is a fundamental property of plastic particles that helps in understanding transport processes by evaluating hydraulic threshold conditions for different transport modes, such as incipient motion, bed load, and suspended load. It is essential for predicting the pathways and accumulation zones of plastic particles in aquatic environments. In this study, settling column experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) on the settling behavior of irregularly shaped, negatively buoyant microplastic particles (MPs). Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) particles of cylindrical and flaky shapes, with a density ranging from 1290 to 1470 kg m-3, were selected for the experiments. The terminal settling velocity (Ws) of these 13 irregularly shaped MPs was measured under three distinct treatments: clear water (without sediments), with an SSC of 50mg/L, and 100mg/L. Each experiment performed three times and a total of 117 tests were conducted. The results showed that the terminal settling velocity (Ws) of cylindrical particles is higher than that of flaky-shaped particles, highlighting shape as a main influencing parameter. As SSC increases from 50mg/L to 100mg/L, Ws decreases for both the particles. Compared to clear water results, at 50mg/l and 100 mg/l SSC, the Ws decreased by 3.56% and 6.28% for cylindrical and 1.84% and 3.60% for flakes particles, respectively. The drag coefficient of microplastic particles rises with increasing SSC due to the presence of suspended sediment particles, which provide additional resistance to the settling process. Furthermore, the larger surface area relative to their volume leads to slower settling velocities. An equation was developed to predict the terminal settling velocity as a function of particle density, shape, size, and sediment concentration. This study provides valuable insights into the settling behavior of irregularly shaped microplastic particles in sediment-rich environments.

Keywords: Terminal settling velocity, suspended sediment concentration, irregularly shaped microplastics, settling column experiments.

How to cite: Owk, P., Chandra, V., and Schuttrumpf, H.: Influence of suspended sediment concentration on the settling velocity of irregularly shaped microplastic particles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14846, 2025.

EGU25-15327 | Orals | HS1.1.5

Flocculation and its impact on microplastic transport mechanisms in rivers 

Francesca Uguagliati, Waqas Ali, Claire Chassagne, Kryss Waldschläger, Massimiliano Zattin, and Massimiliano Ghinassi

Rivers serve as primary pathways for transporting microplastics from land to oceans, but they also can retain these small particles within their sedimentary deposits. A critical factor in this process is the role of fine cohesive sediments, which can adhere to microplastic particles and form aggregates. These aggregates can be transported as part of the bedload, resulting in enhanced accumulation of both microplastics and sediments. This study explores the mechanisms of microplastic-sediment aggregation and their influence on the transport and deposition of microplastics in rivers through laboratory experiments. A rotating wheel (34 cm diameter, 7 cm depth) was used to keep the mud in suspension and promote aggregation, while a settling column equipped with a high-resolution camera was utilised to analyse floc properties and their settling velocities. Five experiments were conducted, analysing approximately 4,000 flocs per experiment. Four experiments involved mixtures of water, sediment (1 g/L), and 500 µm-long microplastic fibres (MPs-sediment ratio, in weight, of 1:25), using four different plastic polymers: Polypropylene (PP, ρ=0.9 g/cm³), Polyamide (PA, ρ=1.14 g/cm³), Polyester (PES, ρ=1.38 g/cm³), and Aramid (AR, ρ=1.44 g/cm³). A fifth experiment, serving as a control, was conducted to observe floc formation without microplastics. Mud with a median grain size of 40 µm sampled from a real river (Arno River, Tuscany, central Italy) was used as the sediment. The mixtures were subjected to a shear rate of 10 s⁻¹ in the rotating wheel for two hours. After complete settling, flocs were collected and moved into the settling column. The recorded videos were analysed using an image analysis tool to determine floc size, shape, and settling velocity. Results showed that including microplastic fibres within flocs formed larger flocs that settled faster than flocs containing only sediment. Furthermore, while flocs formed from plastic-free mud generally exhibit a rounded shape, flocs containing microfibres display greater variability in shape, with some maintaining a rounded morphology but others exhibiting more elongated forms.

How to cite: Uguagliati, F., Ali, W., Chassagne, C., Waldschläger, K., Zattin, M., and Ghinassi, M.: Flocculation and its impact on microplastic transport mechanisms in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15327, 2025.

EGU25-15485 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Experimental study on parameterizing microplastic-sediment aggregation 

Noortje Oosterhoff, Lieke Melsen, and Kryss Waldschläger

The presence of microplastics in rivers and estuaries poses environmental challenges. To effectively address these challenges, it is important to identify microplastic sinks within the aquatic environment. This can be achieved through modeling the fate of microplastics with numerical transport models. A key process influencing their fate is microplastic-sediment aggregation. In this process, microplastics and sediments form flocs that are larger and denser compared to individual microplastics, leading to enhanced settling of microplastics in floc form.

This research aims to parameterize microplastic sediment aggregation by conducting flocculation experiments in the lab. These experiments will involve microplastics in the form of fibers, fragments, and spheres with varying sizes and densities. Flocs will be generated by adding microplastics and sediment to a continuously stirred jar under organic-based, salt-induced, or combined flocculation conditions. Floc formation and growth will be continuously monitored using the Malvern Mastersizer to measure particle size distributions. The settling velocities of microplastic-sediment flocs will be determined using a settling column, coupled with a floc camera for detailed analysis.

The results obtained from the experiments will be used to parameterize microplastic-sediment aggregation for different types of microplastics and conditions. This is achieved by using a novel method for parameterizing microplastic-sediment aggregation using the logistic growth model to describe floc formation and floc growth. By incorporating the parameterization of microplastic-sediment aggregation into numerical transport models, we aim to improve the accuracy of predicting the fate and transport of microplastics in aquatic environments.

How to cite: Oosterhoff, N., Melsen, L., and Waldschläger, K.: Experimental study on parameterizing microplastic-sediment aggregation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15485, 2025.

EGU25-16117 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Toxicity of microcystin-LR adsorbed onto microplastics: Impacts on Daphnia magna  

Namyeon Kim and Eun-Hee Lee

Microplastics are ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems, posing significant environmental concerns due to their impacts on organisms and potential risks to human health. Recent studies have shown that microplastics can interact with coexisting contaminants, such as microcystins–hepatotoxins produced by Microcystis aeruginosa during cyanobacterial blooms. These toxins persist in freshwater environments and adsorb onto microplastic surfaces, facilitating their transport across ecosystems. Despite extensive research on toxicological effects of microplastics and microcystins individually or in co-exposure scenarios, the toxicity of microcystins adsorbed onto microplastics remains poorly understood. This study investigated the role of microplastics as carriers of microcystins and evaluated their ecotoxicological effects using Daphnia magna (D. magna) as a model organism. Microcystin-LR (MC-LR), a potent hepatotoxin, and 220 nm polystyrene (PS) microplastics were selected as test materials. Experimental groups included PS microplastics and MC-LR individually as controls, and MC-LR adsorbed onto PS microplastics (with an adsorption capacity of approximately 307.30 µg per gram of PS) to assess combined toxicity. Toxicity assessments were conducted by analyzing behavioral (e.g., swimming patterns), physiological (e.g., heart rate and reproduction), biochemical (e.g., enzyme activity), and molecular (e.g., gene expression) parameters in D. magna. This study enhances our understanding of microplastics’ role as environmental contaminants and carriers of MC-LR, emphasizing their ecological risks and broader implications for aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Kim, N. and Lee, E.-H.: Toxicity of microcystin-LR adsorbed onto microplastics: Impacts on Daphnia magna , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16117, 2025.

EGU25-16125 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

A Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to study the effect of river hydro-morphology on (small) floating particle transport and deposition 

Francesco Caponi, Sabine Fink, Daniel A. S. Conde, Arthur Hatstatt, Ilaria R. Guiducci, Paul Demuth, and David F. Vetsch

The transport and deposition of floating particles in flowing water is a key mechanism that drives the fate of contaminant, organic materials, and debris along river networks. The ability of human-made and naturally buyout particles to sit on the water surface makes them able to travel long distances. The mechanisms that allow these particles to deposit are closely linked to the hydraulics of the channel and the morphology of the river. Research has shown that particles such as plastics and debris tend to accumulate behind obstacles and recirculation areas, creating accumulation hotspots. The location of such hotspot also depends on the interplay between particle shape and size and flow conditions.  Although the influence of river morphology and flow regime is well acknowledged, the precise interaction between these components remains unclear.

To investigate this relationship, we used a new Eulerian-Lagrangian method based on a 2D depth-averaged flow solver simulating transport and dispersion of floating particles in a typical alpine river floodplain. This method offers a computationally efficient way to track the trajectory of single particles moving onto a flow field. Our approach integrates model simulations with data derived from outdoor and laboratory experiments, where we recorded deposition location of particles of different size, shape and material under different discharge conditions.

The results show that the number of floating particles decreases exponentially with the distance from the release point, with decay rates primarily correlated with the water discharge. We find that the deposition of particles depends on the hydraulics of the channel and the roughness elements in the channel, with particle sizes playing a secondary role. Unsteady flow conditions, namely receding water levels, promote particle deposition on shallow areas and channel shorelines. The use of the particle tracking model allowed us to extend the parameter space investigated experimentally, allowing for an in-depth analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of particles transport and deposition during floods.

These results deepen our understanding of transport processes of floating material at the reach scale, providing quantitative evidence on the central role played by channel hydromorphology. Although the effect of particle shape and size is not fully understood, the study can offer valuable insights into the dispersion mechanisms of different floating particles, from plastics to organic materials.

How to cite: Caponi, F., Fink, S., Conde, D. A. S., Hatstatt, A., Guiducci, I. R., Demuth, P., and Vetsch, D. F.: A Eulerian-Lagrangian approach to study the effect of river hydro-morphology on (small) floating particle transport and deposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16125, 2025.

EGU25-16212 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Toxic effects of tetracycline-adsorbed polystyrene microplastics on E. coli 

Soyoon Kim and Eun-Hee Lee

Microplastics, defined as plastic particles smaller than 5 mm, are pervasive contaminants in aquatic environments. Their high surface area to volume ratio facilitate the adsorption of coexisting pollutants, enabling them to act as carriers for various contaminants, including antibiotics. Antibiotics, widely detected in aquatic environments due to extensive use in medicine and agriculture, may interact with microplastics, thereby altering their distribution and environmental impact. This study investigated the role of polystyrene (PS) microplastics as carriers for tetracycline (TC), a representative antibiotic, and evaluated their toxic effects on Escherichia coli. PS particles with a diameter of 1060 nm were used as model microplastics, and TC was adsorbed onto their surfaces to prepare TC-carrying PS particles. The effects of TC-carrying PS were assessed by examining bacterial growth and viability, with TC and PS alone serving as controls. Exposure to TC-carrying PS resulted in significant decreases in bacterial growth and cell viability in E. coli. Further investigations into the toxicological mechanisms included reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release, and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels. Gene expression analyses investigated alterations in pathways related to membrane integrity, oxidative stress response, and DNA repair mechanisms. These findings enhance our understanding of the interplay between microplastics and antibiotics, highlighting the potential ecological risks posed by TC-adsorbed PS microplastics and their implications for environmental health.

How to cite: Kim, S. and Lee, E.-H.: Toxic effects of tetracycline-adsorbed polystyrene microplastics on E. coli, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16212, 2025.

EGU25-16991 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Sedimentation of microplastics interacting with sediment 

Mirco Mancini, Teresa Serra, Jordi Colomer, Simona Francalanci, and Luca Solari

The widespread presence of microplastics (MPs) in freshwater environments underscores the need to better understand their temporal and spatial dynamics. Investigating the settling velocity (W) of MPs in the water column is crucial for comprehending their transport mechanisms within river systems. Several models have been proposed to estimate the W of this type of pollutant. However, to date, none of them account for the simultaneous presence of suspended sediments. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by conducting laboratory experiments to analyze the W of 12 different types of MPs with various shapes, under both clear and turbid water conditions in a still water tank. For each experimental run trajectories are captured by using high resolution camera and UV lighting to enhance the visibility of MPs. Both vertical and horizontal W components, tilt angles, oscillation frequencies and trajectory angles have been calculated. Appropriate non-dimensional parameter (i.e. Reynolds number (Re), Galileo Number (Ga), Stability Number (I*), Strouhal number (St)) have been used to better describe the MPs hydrodynamics. Results have shown, for the first time, that suspended sediments influence the MPs falling behavior by inducing secondary motions that increase MPs settling velocity. Particularly, the more elongated the MPs the greater the increasing rate of W. Findings have also shown a Gaussian probability distribution of the particle’s lateral position along the water column (with respect to the vertical axis of the tank) suggesting a Fickian-type diffusion of MPs throughout vertical water profile with several implications for their accumulation in calm water environment.

The above findings highlight the importance of including suspended sediment as a key factor in developing MP transport models, due to its significant impact on the mass balance of MPs in aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Mancini, M., Serra, T., Colomer, J., Francalanci, S., and Solari, L.: Sedimentation of microplastics interacting with sediment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16991, 2025.

EGU25-17177 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

What Influences Microplastic Distribution in the Marine Environment? A Study Highlighting the Role of Fronts and Submesoscale Processes in the North Sea 

Jens Meyerjürgens, Isabel Goßmann, Michelle Albinus, Cora Achtner, Brandy-Tiera Robinson, Andreas Held, Carola Lehners, Lisa Gassen-Bertzbach, Samuel Mintah Ayim, Thomas H. Badewien, Barbara M. Scholz-Böttcher, and Oliver Wurl

Microplastics (MPs) are pervasive contaminants, yet understanding their pathways and fate in the marine environment remains unclear. A key challenge is the lack of in-situ, complementary measurements linking MP quantification with oceanographic parameters, particularly concerning submesoscale processes and density fronts. Submesoscale dynamics, including filaments, eddies, and fronts, significantly influence the transport and accumulation of MPs by creating convergence zones and sharp density gradients. Density fronts serve as critical hotspots for MP aggregation, concentrating particles through upwelling and downwelling processes. Despite their importance, these interactions remain poorly studied, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches to directly measure the interplay between MPs and the physical processes that drive their distribution.

This study addresses this gap by utilizing in-situ measurements collected with an autonomous surface vehicle (ASV) in the southern North Sea, simultaneously collecting water samples for MP analysis and key oceanographic data. The ASV simultaneously sampled air, sea surface microlayer, and underlying water for MP analysis. A weather station and conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) sensors were deployed on the ASV to further contextualize the distribution of MPs. Additionally, CTD profiles were obtained by an accompanying research vessel to investigate the influence of stratification and temporal dynamics on MP distribution. An acoustic Doppler current profiler measured water current velocities and flow direction.

The measurements underscore the pivotal role of submesoscale fronts and filaments in shaping the accumulation and distribution of MP. Upwelling and downwelling processes at these fronts and filaments concentrated MP up to 30.48 µg MP L⁻¹, and distributed MPs vertically across depth profiles and horizontally across fronts. Wind direction was found to influence the presence of MP in the atmosphere, while wind speeds appeared to enhance heterogeneity in MP composition and concentration within the water.

Submesoscale fronts and filaments are highlighted as key zones for MP accumulation, driven by the interplay of horizontal and vertical water flow linked to ageostrophic circulation. The data provide novel insights into their transport mechanisms in the marine environment.

How to cite: Meyerjürgens, J., Goßmann, I., Albinus, M., Achtner, C., Robinson, B.-T., Held, A., Lehners, C., Gassen-Bertzbach, L., Ayim, S. M., Badewien, T. H., Scholz-Böttcher, B. M., and Wurl, O.: What Influences Microplastic Distribution in the Marine Environment? A Study Highlighting the Role of Fronts and Submesoscale Processes in the North Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17177, 2025.

EGU25-17744 | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Laboratory experiments related to marine plastic pollution: a review of past work and future directions 

Matthieu Mercier, Marie Poulain-Zarcos, Nimish Pujara, and Gautier Verhille

Plastic pollution is a very active research topic for a wide variety of scientific disciplines. While existing reviews of plastic pollution in the ocean cover the topic from different disciplinary and interdisciplinary viewpoints, this review addresses the contributions from laboratory experiments towards the geophysical processes important in marine plastic pollution research. We review the laboratory research on the transport, transformations, and origin and fate of marine plastic pollution with recommendations for future research [1].

[1] Marie Poulain-Zarcos; Nimish Pujara; Gautier Verhille; Matthieu J. Mercier. Laboratory experiments related to marine plastic pollution: a review of past work and future directions. Comptes Rendus. Physique (2024), pp. 1-32. doi : 10.5802/crphys.217

How to cite: Mercier, M., Poulain-Zarcos, M., Pujara, N., and Verhille, G.: Laboratory experiments related to marine plastic pollution: a review of past work and future directions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17744, 2025.

EGU25-18648 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Investigating Microplastic Resuspension in Environmental flows: Experimental and Numerical Approaches 

Ronaldo Höhn, Bernhard Vowinckel, and Gregory Lecrivain

Rivers serve as a big pathway for microplastics (MPs) to reach the oceans. This transport exhibits seasonality, while microplastics tend to deposit on sediment beds and riverbanks during dry seasons, heavy rainfall directly increases the resuspension rate of microplastic particles. The turbulence intensity during such events plays a significant role in particle resuspension. The detachment of MPs embedded in a sediment bed containing other granular phases with a contrasting density ratio remains a complex process that deserves further research. This study aims to investigate the micromechanical effects of microplastic resuspension through a combined experimental and numerical campaign. An experimental closed-loop channel facility is being constructed to analyze the mobilization of millimeter-sized MPs particles from a sediment bed composed of glass beads and polymer pellets of the same diameter. An ultrafast X-ray computed tomography system will be used to scan three-dimensional opaque sediment bed, allowing the mapping of the entrapped polymer MPs particles in space and time for different flow conditions. Additionally, the individual particles crossing two measurement planes will be recorded with this system using a temporal resolution of 1000 samples per second. Thus, the velocity distribution of the MPs particles will be measured in both the sediment bed and the core flow. The experimental study is supplemented with grain-resolving Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) to replicate the idealized conditions of the experimental setup. This approach allows for a detailed exploration of the hydrodynamic forces acting on particles and permits an investigation of details beyond the experimental capabilities. The findings of this combined experimental and numerical study will contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms of microplastic resuspension in environmental flows and guide mitigation strategies to limit plastic pollution in aquatic environments.

How to cite: Höhn, R., Vowinckel, B., and Lecrivain, G.: Investigating Microplastic Resuspension in Environmental flows: Experimental and Numerical Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18648, 2025.

EGU25-18928 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.5

Experimental and numerical investigation of the vertical distribution of macro plastic transport in rivers 

Tobias van Batenburg, Antonio Moreno-Rodenas, Wout Bakker, Daniel Valero, Frank Kleissen, Frans Buschman, Paul Vriend, Mário J. Franca, and Anton de Fockert

There is a significant mismatch between the estimated amounts of ocean plastic and the expected plastic ingress by rivers (De Fockert et al., 2024; OECD, 2022). Most plastic transport monitoring data used for global modelling of plastic flux estimations is based on the number of items transported at the water surface (González-Fernández, 2023). However, the amount of the submerged plastic items transport in rivers is not accounted for or is based on approximations (Blondel & Buschman, 2022; Hurley et al., 2023). Notably, submerged plastic transport can exceed surface transport by 4-5 orders of magnitude (Vriend et al., 2023).

Numerical models often oversimplify the macro plastic transport by focusing solely on rising velocity, neglecting physical processes like particle characteristics and free surface interaction (Wickramarachchi et al., 2024). This study addresses these aspects through a detailed experimental investigation on the vertical distribution of near-neutrally buoyant macro-plastics in a controlled laboratory environment to provide validation data to improve the current parametrisation in the particle tracking model Delft3D-PART as part of the Delft3D open source software suite (Stupary et al., 2015).

Experiments were conducted in a  45m long, 1.2m high, and 1m wide flume at Deltares. Large quantities of different types of plastic items were released close to the flume bed 30m upstream of the measurement location, where the position of each item was measured and counted to obtain a vertical distribution. The plastic items used in the campaign were similar to commonly found riverine litter such as bags, foils, cups and spheres, with varying size and plastic type (PP & HDPE). Additionally, the hydrodynamic conditions were varied allowing testing of different turbulent flow conditions.

Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV) measurements were performed to characterize the flow field and turbulence. Computer vision AI algorithms were used to track the plastic particle positions within the water column, enabling the construction of plastic vertical distribution profiles.

Similar to Valero et al. (2022), the experiment confirmed distinct surfaced and suspended transport layers for near-neutrally buoyant plastics for low turbulent flows. Under low turbulent flow conditions, plastic items concentrated at the free surface, confirming dominance of buoyancy and surface tension effects over turbulent mixing. Within the suspended transport layer, the plastic particles exhibited an inverse Rouse profile. At higher turbulence, the vertical distribution of observed plastics became more uniform for plastic bags, while smaller sized plastics remained well-represented by the inverse Rouse profile. This suggests that classical inverse Rouse theories, which neglect particle size, may not adequately describe the plastic observation profiles of larger sized plastic transport in rivers.

Based on these findings, a Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic model was developed and validated against the ADV measurements, in which the particle tracking model Delft3D-PART was adapted to incorporate surface interaction effects based on particle dimensions. This parameterization enables more accurate simulation of riverine plastic concentrations by considering hydraulic dynamics, surface interaction, and plastic dimensions. The improved model parameterization will enhance the accuracy of predicting plastic transport and contribute to the development of effective mitigation strategies.

 

How to cite: van Batenburg, T., Moreno-Rodenas, A., Bakker, W., Valero, D., Kleissen, F., Buschman, F., Vriend, P., Franca, M. J., and de Fockert, A.: Experimental and numerical investigation of the vertical distribution of macro plastic transport in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18928, 2025.

EGU25-19700 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.5

Influence of seasonal hydrodynamic variations and particle interactions on microplastic particle settling in water columns 

Pouyan Ahmadi, Hassan Elagami, Franz Dichgans, Benjamin S. Gilfedder, and Jan H. Fleckenstein

Microplastic (MP) particles pose a significant threat to the health of aquatic ecosystems, particularly in inland standing waters such as lakes, ponds, and drinking water reservoirs. During their settlement, MP particles are affected not only by seasonal variations in hydrodynamic forces but also by interactions with other MP particles settling simultaneously, which impact their settling velocity and, in turn, their distribution in the water column. Seasonal variations determine the nature of hydrodynamics in the water column, dictating whether it remains mixed or becomes thermally stratified. In addition to the influence of these seasonal hydrodynamic variations on MP particles, the interactions between MP particles settling in close proximity also play a significant role in shaping their settling behavior. These combined hydrodynamics-MP and MP-MP interactions result in changing the settling behavior of MP particles under different seasonal conditions.

To investigate how these interactions affect the residence time of MP particles in a water column, we utilized a numerical simulation framework in OpenFOAM, an open-source computational tool for solving partial differential equations in the field of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The model, incorporating mass, momentum, and energy conservation equations along with two-way (particle-flow) and four-way (particle-particle) coupling, is calibrated and validated using data from an experimental mesocosm under open-air conditions influenced by real-time meteorological fluctuations. This numerical framework is then utilized to explore (1) how seasonal hydrodynamic variations impact interactions between MP particles, water, and other particles during settling and (2) how changes in MP particles' properties, such as size and density, alter their settling behavior under different coupling scenarios.

These potential findings aim to shed light on how seasonal variations in hydrodynamics and particle interactions in standing waters influence the settling velocity and residence time of MP particles in a water column. The outcomes of this study are expected to provide valuable insights for developing targeted strategies to mitigate the risks of MP particles to freshwater ecosystems and human health.

How to cite: Ahmadi, P., Elagami, H., Dichgans, F., Gilfedder, B. S., and Fleckenstein, J. H.: Influence of seasonal hydrodynamic variations and particle interactions on microplastic particle settling in water columns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19700, 2025.

EGU25-20227 | Orals | HS1.1.5

Isokinectic pump sampling – a methodoligy addressing the small size ranges of microplastic in rivers 

Marcel Liedermann, Sebastian Pessenlehner, Elisabeth Mayerhofer, and Philipp Gmeiner

Due to their persistent presence in the environment and the largely unknown long-term impacts on biota, plastic waste has increasingly become the focus of scientific research in recent years. Particularly in the field of microplastic monitoring in rivers, there remains a significant need for research. As methodologies are not yet standardized, and often not representative and comparable, efficient sampling poses a major challenge.

Within the framework of the "Alplast" project, intensive efforts were made to develop a methodology capable of accurately capturing microplastic transport in rivers. Various carrier systems tailored to different river sizes were developed for net sampling, which targets the coarser fractions of microplastics (> 250 µm). In addition, a novel isokinetic pump was designed to analyze finer microplastic fractions from 50 to 250 µm

Given the spatial and temporal variability of plastic transport, multipoint sampling under varying hydrological conditions is strongly recommended. Larger microplastic particles occur less frequently, making it essential to sample large volumes of water to representatively capture this size range. Using net sampling, up to 1,000 m³ of water can be filtered at a single sampling point. However, finer particles, which cannot be captured by the limited mesh size of nets due to clogging especially under turbid boundary conditions, must be analyzed using pump samples. The number of sampling points across the river profile is often limited related to the high costs of analysis.

The newly developed isokinetic pump addresses this gap by measuring flow velocity at the intake area of the sampling device. A control unit regulates the pump speed so that the pumped water volume matches the natural flow in the sampling cross-section. This isokinetic sampling approach offers two major advantages. First, the plastic flow is not disproportionately altered during sampling, and second, a direct weighting of the spatial distribution in flow and concentration is automatically accounted for. This significantly reduces the number of required samples, which is particularly beneficial given the high costs associated with sample analysis.

The new methodology was successfully combined with net sampling and applied at multiple measurement sites. Results demonstrate that this approach enables efficient and representative monitoring of microplastic transport in rivers.

How to cite: Liedermann, M., Pessenlehner, S., Mayerhofer, E., and Gmeiner, P.: Isokinectic pump sampling – a methodoligy addressing the small size ranges of microplastic in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20227, 2025.

EGU25-512 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Impact of Low-Molecular-Weight Organic Acids on the Transport of Polystyrene Nanoplastics 

Taotao Lu, Ju He, and Meng Yang

Plastic nanoparticles, widely used in various consumer products, have become a significant contributor to soil pollution, making it essential to understand their transport in soils, where organic substances are prevalent. This study aimed to investigate the influence of low-molecular-weight organic acids (LMWOAs) on the transport of polystyrene nanoparticles (PS-NPs) through saturated quartz sand. The focus was on seven specific organic acids: three dibasic acids—malonic acid (MA1), malic acid (MA2), and tartaric acid (TA)—and four monobasic acids—formic acid (FA), acetic acid (AA), propanoic acid (PA), and glycolic acid (GA). The effects were evaluated across a range of pH levels (4.0, 5.5, and 7.0) and in the presence of two cations, Na⁺ and Ca²⁺. The results showed that, in the presence of Na+, dibasic acids significantly enhanced the transport of PS-NPs, with TA being the most effective, followed by MA2 and MA1. This enhancement was attributed to the adsorption of LMWOAs onto the PS-NPs and quartz sand, leading to a more negative ζ-potential. This negative shift increased electrostatic repulsion between the particles, reducing their deposition and facilitating transport. The Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory further explained that higher pH levels increased the energy barrier, which reduced PS-NPs deposition by stabilizing them in the suspension. In contrast, the monobasic acids—apart from GA—exhibited minimal impact on PS-NP transport. These acids slightly diminished the hydrophilicity of the PS-NPs, as evidenced by a minor increase in the water contact angle, which in turn reduced their mobility. However, GA, with its additional hydroxyl group, acted similarly to dibasic acids, promoting both enhanced hydrophilicity and increased transport of PS-NPs. When Ca2+ was present, the transport enhancement was similar to that observed with Na+. The complexation and bridging effects of Ca2+ with the organic acids and PS-NPs contributed to this effect. Overall, these findings offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the mobility of PS-NPs in soils, which is crucial for understanding their environmental behavior and potential ecological impacts.

How to cite: Lu, T., He, J., and Yang, M.: Impact of Low-Molecular-Weight Organic Acids on the Transport of Polystyrene Nanoplastics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-512, 2025.

Biodegradable film mulching has attracted considerable attention as an alternative to conventional plastic film mulching. However, how much of microplastics is being formed during the film degradation and their impact on soil health during long-term use of biodegradable plastic film are not known. We quantified the amounts of microplastics (0.1-5 mm in size) in the topsoil (0-20 cm) of two cotton fields with different mulching cultivations: (1) continuous use of conventional (polyethylene, PE) film for 23 years (Plot 1), and (2) 15 years use of conventional film followed by 8 years of biodegradable (polybutylene adipate-co-terephthalate, PBAT) film (Plot 2). We further assessed the impacts of the microplastics on soil carbon contents and flows. The total amount of microplastics was larger in Plot 2 (8507 particles kg1) than in Plot 1 (6767 particles kg1). The microplastics (0.1-1 mm) were identified as derived from PBAT and PE in Plot 2; while in Plot 1, the microplastics were identified as PE. Microplastics > 1 mm were exclusively identified as PE in both plots. Soil organic carbon was higher (27 vs. 30 g C kg-1 soil) but dissolved organic carbon (120 vs. 74 mg C kg1 soil) and microbial biomass carbon were lower (413 vs. 246 mg C kg1 soil) in Plot 2 compared to the Plot 1. Based on 13C natural abundance, we found that in Plot 2, carbon flow was dominated from micro- (<0.25 mm) to macroaggregates (0.25–2 and >2 mm), whereas in Plot 1, carbon flow occurred between large and small macroaggregates, and from micro-to macroaggregates. Thus, long-term application of biodegradable film changed the abundance of microplastics, and organic carbon accumulation compared to conventional polyethylene film mulching.

How to cite: Jiang, R. and Wang, K.: Impact of long-term conventional and biodegradable film mulching on microplastic abundance and soil organic carbon in a cotton field, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1849, 2025.

EGU25-2391 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.6

Drip Irrigation Promoted Migration of Microplastic Particles Across Vertical Soil Columns. 

Mohd Faraz Khan and Chandrashekhar Prasad Ojha

The widespread use of plastics has undeniably brought numerous advantages to society, facilitating countless advancements in technology, industry, and daily life. However, the proliferation of plastic debris in various environmental systems has become an escalating concern. Recognizing this pressing issue, our research team at the Civil Engineering Department of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee has undertaken an experimental investigation to study the transport behavior of microplastics within soil matrices.

Specifically, we focus on coumarin 6 dyed microplastic particles, sized between 35 to 40 microns, as tracers to understand their migration patterns. This study employs vertical soil columns as experimental setups, designed to mimic natural subsurface conditions. Each soil column has a depth of 30.5 cm and is packed with carefully prepared soil types to replicate varying real-world scenarios. By using artificial drip irrigation systems to simulate rainfall or water infiltration, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms by which microplastics are transported through soil systems, potentially leaching into underlying groundwater reservoirs.

The primary objective of the study is to systematically investigate the factors influencing the downward movement of microplastics in different soil types. For this purpose, two types of soil have been used: fluvial sand and gravel soil. The influence of several variables on microplastic transport was examined, including variations in soil pH, organic matter content, drip irrigation intensity. These parameters were chosen because of their potential to alter the physicochemical properties of the soil environment, thereby affecting the mobility of microplastics.

To begin the experiments, vertical soil columns were packed with either fluvial sand or gravel soil. The soil was pre-conditioned to achieve specific pH levels and organic matter contents, ensuring controlled and reproducible conditions across trials. Microplastic particles stained with coumarin 6 dye were introduced at the top of the soil column along with water droplets, mimicking natural infiltration processes under varying drip irrigation intensities.

The effluent from the outlet at the bottom of the soil column was collected at regular intervals to quantify the number of microplastic particles that had traversed the column. These collected samples were then subjected to analysis under a fluorescent microscope, which enabled accurate detection and quantification of microplastic particles.

The study also highlighted the impact of drip irrigation intensity on microplastic migration. Higher flow rates were found to promote greater transport of microplastics, as the increased water velocity reduced the residence time of particles within the soil and minimized opportunities for retention or adsorption. Conversely, lower flow rates allowed for more pronounced interactions between the microplastics and the soil matrix, leading to increased retention.

.

How to cite: Khan, M. F. and Ojha, C. P.: Drip Irrigation Promoted Migration of Microplastic Particles Across Vertical Soil Columns., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2391, 2025.

EGU25-5376 | Orals | HS1.1.6

Magnetic labelling and extraction of micrometer-sized microplastics from soil 

Yin Liu, Junwei Hu, Yanqi Huang, Nick Krekelbergh, Patria Novita Kusumawardani, Steven Sleutel, Bogdan V Parakhonskiy, Milka Susan Kollannur Biju, Richard Hoogenboom, Stefaan De Neve, and Andre Skirtach

Ubiquitous microplastics (MP) have emerged as a global environmental concern, recently also in soils. However, limited attention has been given to the behaviour of small-sized MP (< 10 μm) due to the challenges associated with separating and quantifying MP from an exceedingly complex matrix. Here, we show that magnetic labelling of MP greatly increases the efficiency of MP extraction from soil using a magnetic field. Magnetic labelling was achieved by exploiting the glass transition of polystyrene MP sphere. By heating MP (4 µm polystyrene spheres), to induce surface melting in a suspension containing Fe3O4 magnetic nanoparticles (MNS), the MNS were adsorbed onto the MP surface. Subsequent cooling to room temperature, led to fixation of the MNS into the MP surface layer enabling MP extraction using a magnet. Incubating MP and MNS at 90°C for 2.5 h gave the highest MP recovery rate of 92 ± 7% in water. The same MP were then added to a sandy soil suspension to assess and optimize labelling and extraction efficiency of the MP from the soil. The following parameters were optimized: dispersant type, organic matter digestion, and MNS size, concentration, and storage time. Compared to conventional MP detection methods, the MP recovery using magnetic extraction improved from 26% to 94 ± 12%. To the best of our knowledge, this research represents the first successful quantitative extraction of MP < 10 μm from soil and opens new possibilities for fate assessing of small MP and cleaning the environment.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Hu, J., Huang, Y., Krekelbergh, N., Novita Kusumawardani, P., Sleutel, S., Parakhonskiy, B. V., Kollannur Biju, M. S., Hoogenboom, R., De Neve, S., and Skirtach, A.: Magnetic labelling and extraction of micrometer-sized microplastics from soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5376, 2025.

EGU25-5584 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

The Re-distribution of Pristine and Aged Microplastics (<50 µm) in Soil Aggregate Fractions 

Patria Novita Kusumawardani, Diana Paola Trujillo Amaya, Nick Krekelbergh, Yin Liu, Steven Sleutel, Andre Skirtach, and Stefaan De Neve

Soil aggregates play a pivotal role in soil organic carbon dynamics and microbial activity. However, their influence on the pressing issue of microplastic (MP) contamination in soils remains poorly understood. This lack of attention may be attributed to the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of soil, which renders plastic isolation and identification in soil is particularly challenging. This study aims to investigate MPs redistribution among soil aggregate fractions during the process of soil aggregation. Two soil textures (silt loam and sandy loam) were amended with organic matter (OM) to promote aggregation during a two-month incubation period,  with 0.1 % microplastics powder added to the soils. A self-made pristine and aged LDPE and PET microplastics (<50 µm) were used in this experiment. Subsequently, physical fractionation were implemented to separate the soils into aggregate fraction (macro-aggregate, micro-aggregates and within associated fractions and silt+clay fractions). Organic matter was removed via oxidation to prevent interference with MP analysis. MPs were subsequently extracted through density separation, filtration, and examined using a Keyence VH-Z500 digital microscope. Unexpectedly, even small amounts of MPs significantly influenced soil aggregation, with effects varying by polymer type, weathering state, and soil texture. LDPE was predominantly retained in the micro-aggregate fractions in both soil textures, except for aged LDPE in loam soil, where over 60% accumulated in the silt+clay fraction. Conversely, PET was primarily retained in the macro-aggregates of silt loam soils and the micro-aggregates of sandy loam soils. Furthermore, the redistribution of MPs during soil aggregation exhibited notable differences, with silt loam soils demonstrating the highest degree of MP redistribution. These findings are relevant as soil aggregates provide different levels of physical protection against degradation and mobility, influencing the bioavailability of microplastics and their potential transfer to other environmental compartments.

How to cite: Kusumawardani, P. N., Amaya, D. P. T., Krekelbergh, N., Liu, Y., Sleutel, S., Skirtach, A., and De Neve, S.: The Re-distribution of Pristine and Aged Microplastics (<50 µm) in Soil Aggregate Fractions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5584, 2025.

EGU25-5999 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.6

Nanoplastic- Fungi interaction – insights from various laboratory scales 

Sascha Müller, Hanbang Zou, Martin Lundqvist, Tommy Cedervall, Micaela Mafla Endara, and Edith Hammer

Nanoplastic (NP) exposure to the terrestrial water cycle poses an emerging threat to subsurface ecosystems, while the continuous release of NP increases the risk of drinking water contamination.
Fungal communities are a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems. Traditionally, their presence and functions have been studied in shallow soils as part of the soil microbiome or above ground as decomposers or pathogens. Recent mycobiome screening studies of groundwater wells have revealed the presence of fungal species in deeper aquifers. This confirms the presence of fungi across all compartments of the terrestrial water cycle, highlighting the need to investigate their role in contaminant transport processes.
Fungi have demonstrated the ability to immobilize dissolved organic contaminants, heavy metals, and pharmaceuticals from polluted waters. However, studies examining their effect on NP removal remain limited. Existing research generally lacks the integration of liquid flow dynamics, which is crucial for understanding fungal interactions in natural water systems.
We present a dataset, which shows dynamics of NP-fungi interaction across multiple laboratory scales. Our study compares batch adsorption experiments with transport experiments conducted in inoculated microfluidic chips and transport columns. Carboxylated polystyrene nanoparticles of 100 nm and 250 nm serve as model NPs. Following fungal inoculation in growth media, the experiments are conducted under various ion concentrations of CaCl and flow velocities ranging from 1 m/d and 30 m/d.
Our results indicate scale-dependent modes of NP-fungal interactions. In batch-scale experiments, higher ion concentrations significantly enhance the adsorption efficiency of NPs to fungal hyphae. In contrast, experiments conducted in microfluidic chips and transport columns reveal altered behavior, with notably lower adsorption efficiencies observed.
This suggests that in natural environments, factors such as the spatial distribution of hyphae, ion concentration, flow rates, and consequently reaction times, collectively influence the efficiency of NP removal by fungal communities.

How to cite: Müller, S., Zou, H., Lundqvist, M., Cedervall, T., Mafla Endara, M., and Hammer, E.: Nanoplastic- Fungi interaction – insights from various laboratory scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5999, 2025.

EGU25-6106 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Effect of Polypropylene Microplastic on Soil Water Characteristic Curve 

Pratyush Gupta and Saumyen Guha

Microplastics (MP) are present in the soil mainly due to the use of agricultural mulch films and sewage sludge as fertilisers. They are small particles of less than 5mm in size, whose presence impacts agricultural productivity by modifying the soil pore structure, affecting its water and nutrient retention properties, and altering the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC). The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of the size and concentration of polypropylene (PP) microplastics on the SWCC of silty sand. The soil comprises of 72.2% sand, 27.7% silt and 0.1% clay. Polypropylene particles of size (0–50 µm and 50–100 µm) were added to the soil at three concentrations (0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.4% w/w) in the range reported in the literature. The SWCC was measured using a pressure-plate assembly designed such that the mass balance of water imbibition and exudation can be verified at all stages. A genetic algorithm from python library (pygad) was employed to fit the observed soil moisture data and estimate the parameters of the Van Genuchten (VG) model. As the pressure increased, the MP of size 50-100 µm showed a significant decrease in the soil water holding capacity up to a pressure of 0.7 bar, beyond which there were no significant differences with the SWCC for the control soil without MP. Increasing MP content decreased the soil water retention capacity.  The field capacity decreased by 5.8% at a concentration of 0.4% for larger-sized microplastics. The smaller size MP (0–50 µm) at low concentration of 0.1% did not significantly affect the soil water content, while the accumulation of PP-MP at higher concentrations (0.2% and 0.4%) resulted in a significant decrease in the soil water holding capacity. The differences in microplastic sizes and concentrations led to variations in the SWCC, which was reflected in the variations in the fitted parameters of the VG model. The presence of larger MP may have disrupted the original capillary pore structure and weakened the soil capillarity, contributing to a decline in soil water retention. The small amount of finer MP may have been transported through the soil pores without significantly affecting the water retention properties of the soil. These findings highlight MP potential risk to soil hydraulic properties and its negative impact on plant growth.

How to cite: Gupta, P. and Guha, S.: Effect of Polypropylene Microplastic on Soil Water Characteristic Curve, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6106, 2025.

EGU25-7447 | Orals | HS1.1.6

Biodegradation of cotton-polyester textiles to understand fate of natural and synthetic microfibres in soil 

Miranda Prendergast-Miller, Abbie Rogers, Nkumbu Mutambo, Kelly Sheridan, and Alana James

Microplastics are ubiquitous and have been detected across all environments. While the focus has been on pollution threats posed by plastic particles e.g. derived from fragmented plastic packaging or tyres – the dominant form of microplastic particles identified in environmental samples tends to be microfibres, shed from textiles. Microfibres are believed to enter the environment mainly via laundering of garments, with soil environments forming an important sink for microfibres due to sewage sludge applications from wastewater treatment plants. There is growing awareness that these microfibres are not only synthetic (plastic) but also originate from natural textiles, such as cotton and wool, which have been largely overlooked from an environmental science perspective. With 100 billion new garments made every year, we know little about the environmental impact during ‘wear-and-use’ and at the ‘end-of-life’ of textile microfibres. Therefore, we need to understand the release of microfibres from natural and synthetic fibres from across the garment life-cycle (from manufacture to end-of-life).  We set up an incubation study burying 5 x 5 cm sections of different fabrics in soil, along a gradient of cotton-polyester blends to determine textile biodegradation, microfibre fragmentation and impacts to soil properties. We selected fabrics with contrasting plain dyes (light vs dark colours) to test whether dye quality affected biodegradation rates. Over the course of the short-term incubation, fabric and soil samples were retrieved and analysed for various properties to track changes in fabric samples, microfibres and soils. Here we present some data from the experiment to begin to understand how natural and synthetic fibres biodegrade in soil and their impact on soil properties and soil health.

How to cite: Prendergast-Miller, M., Rogers, A., Mutambo, N., Sheridan, K., and James, A.: Biodegradation of cotton-polyester textiles to understand fate of natural and synthetic microfibres in soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7447, 2025.

EGU25-9909 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Long-term biodegradability of Poly-Lactic Acid (PLA) in soil by measuring carbon dioxide evolution in a closed system 

Elisa Pignoni, Matteo Calosi, Giacomo Ferretti, Cristina Botezatu, Matteo Alberghini, Monica Bertoldo, and Massimo Coltorti

Plastics have become an integral part of our lives due to their versatility and durability. Conventional plastics are made from non-renewable resources that are harmful to humans and the environment. They release toxic substances and break down into microparticles. The use of biodegradable plastics, such as polylactic acid (PLA), is a viable alternative to reduce the above-mentioned problematics. This study investigates the long-term (9 months) biodegradability of PLA in soil under laboratory conditions in a closed chamber system. The experiment was set up according to the European standard ISO 17556:2012. The biodegradability percentage of the plastic was calculated by measuring the production of CO2 by microorganisms in the soil on PLA. The percentage biodegradability of the PLA was calculated using soil CO2 emission rates (measured by titration method). PLA was used in net and film forms under two experimental conditions: untreated soil and soil modified with two natural soil amendments (natural zeolites and biochar) to evaluate their potential impacts on PLA decomposition rates and CO2 emissions. Cellulose (100% biodegradable) was used as a positive control.  For comparison, PLA degradation was also studied under temperature-controlled composting conditions (58°C) with the same experimental setup.  The morphological changes of PLA were analysed using a scanning electron microscope. The results showed different trends over time and significant differences between the treatments, especially concerning the presence of soil amendments, highlighting the complexity of the interactions between PLA and the soil microbial community and physico-chemistry of the substrate.

How to cite: Pignoni, E., Calosi, M., Ferretti, G., Botezatu, C., Alberghini, M., Bertoldo, M., and Coltorti, M.: Long-term biodegradability of Poly-Lactic Acid (PLA) in soil by measuring carbon dioxide evolution in a closed system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9909, 2025.

EGU25-10207 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Influence of mineral and organic matrices on the thermal characterization of microplastics 

Clémentine Ricard, François Baudin, Victor Lieunard, Lucas Friceau, Sebastien Rohais, Yoann Copard, Ludwig Wolfgang, and Maria-Fernanda Romero-Sarmiento

Qualifying and quantifying microplastic (MP) pollution in sediments represent a methodological challenge. Most used methods often require sample pretreatments to separate the MP particles of interest from the rest of the sediment. It has been demonstrated that the sampling preparation can influence the analytical results. To overcome these difficulties, Romero-Sarmiento et al. (2022) proposed the use of the pyrolysis and oxidation based-thermal method (a Rock-Eval® device), originally developed to characterize sedimentary organic matter. According to these authors, several parameters calculated from Rock-Eval® analyses, such as Total HC (quantity of hydrocarbons released during pyrolysis) and Tpeak (cracking temperature of plastic polymers), could be used to qualify and quantify microplastics, without sediment pretreatments. However, unpublished preliminary studies have shown that the Tpeak parameter, can vary with catalytic and thermal desorption effects, depending on the nature of the associated mineral and organic matrices. To understand the origin of these effects, we studied matrix effects during the thermal analysis of composite samples. In this study, synthetic mixtures of various mineral matrices, organic materials and pure polymers at different concentrations were analyzed using a Rock-Eval®. As expected, the results show that Total HC varies with the amount of polymer present in the samples. However, Total HC also varies according to the type of the mineral matrix. Indeed, some samples, such as clays and particularly goethite, show retention effects when the mineral matrices are characterized by a high adsorption capacity. Furthermore, for a given polymer, the Tpeak parameter can vary according to the mineral matrix. For example, it seems that some mixtures of polymers and mineral matrices enhance the catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons. While highest expected Tpeak values were obtained for some synthetic blends indicating a delayed release of hydrocarbons. The same mineral matrix can also induce different effects depending on the organic compounds present in the sample. In addition, analyses using natural versus artificial matrices were performed to compare these effects. Obtained results were complemented by scanning electron microscope observations and X-ray diffraction measurements at different temperatures during pyrolysis, to visualize the possible organo-mineral interactions and analyze morphological changes respectively. Understanding these effects of the mineral and organic matrices on the determination of MP concentrations will enable us to refine a more accurate method to quantify the impact of plastic pollution in sediments.

 

Romero-Sarmiento, M.-F., Ravelojaona, H., Pillot, D., Rohais, S., 2022. Polymer quantification using the Rock-Eval® device for identification of plastics in sediments. Science of The Total Environment 807, 151068. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151068

How to cite: Ricard, C., Baudin, F., Lieunard, V., Friceau, L., Rohais, S., Copard, Y., Wolfgang, L., and Romero-Sarmiento, M.-F.: Influence of mineral and organic matrices on the thermal characterization of microplastics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10207, 2025.

EGU25-10477 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Biofilm heterogeneity affects the mobility of nanoplastics during riverbank filtration 

Yanghui Xu, Jan Peter van der Hoek, Gang Liu, and Kim Maren Lompe

The presence of NPs in drinking water has raised wide concerns due to their potential impacts on human health. Riverbank filtration (RBF), a natural water treatment process that involves the passage of water through soil, is employed by some Dutch drinking water companies that source water from rivers. Given the emergence of NPs as pollutants, it is essential to understand their transport and removal behavior during riverbank filtration to ensure the safety and quality of drinking water.

The deposition of NPs in porous media is strongly influenced by the physicochemical properties of aquifer grain surfaces. Natural biofilms, consisting of complex communities of bacteria and other microorganisms, typically form on these surfaces and alter their properties. During RBF, biofilm-associated microbial activity leads to rapid oxygen consumption due to the degradation of organic matter, resulting in the formation of localized anoxic and anaerobic zones. However, the impact of this spatial heterogeneity of biofilms on the removal of NPs remains unclear. In this study, we aim to investigate how biofilm spatial heterogeneity influences NP deposition during RBF.

We constructed several long columns (90 cm in length), each composed of ten short columns (9 cm in length, 2 cm in diameter), packed with technical sand (particle size: 0.4–0.6 mm). River water sourced from an RBF site was pumped through the columns at a flow rate of 0.1 mL/min (0.054 m/h) to facilitate biofilm growth over periods of 1, 3, and 6 months. After biofilm formation, columns were segmented into ten short columns to assess NP transport behavior by analyzing breakthrough and retention curves at different biofilm depths. Europium-doped polystyrene NPs (30 mg/L) suspended in synthetic river water with a similar ionic composition to natural river water were used as tracers to evaluate NP transport and retention at an increased flow rate of 0.75 mL/min.

So far, we have obtained breakthrough curves for NP transport in columns with 1- and 3-month biofilms. Preliminary results indicate that site blocking contributed to the concentration- and time-dependent deposition of NPs. The inherent surface roughness of the technical sand created heterogeneous sites that contributed to multi-site NP deposition. Compared to the original sand grains, biofilms exhibited a less negative surface charge, facilitating stronger interaction with NPs. It suggest that biofilms created more favorable heterogeneous sites, enhancing both irreversible and reversible deposition of NPs. The maximum retention capacity of sand grains decreased with depth, with the shallow biofilm layers, which had the highest biomass, greatly enhancing NP retention. Additionally, biofilms grown for 3 months demonstrated a stronger capacity to retain NPs compared to those grown for 1 month.

The remaining experiments are expected to be completed by May next year. This study will enhance the understanding of NP deposition mechanisms during RBF, with a particular focus on the critical role of the spatial heterogeneity of natural biofilms. The findings will provide valuable insights into the potential removal efficiency of NPs in RBF systems, as well as the associated risks of NP exposure in downstream environments and drinking water sources.

How to cite: Xu, Y., van der Hoek, J. P., Liu, G., and Maren Lompe, K.: Biofilm heterogeneity affects the mobility of nanoplastics during riverbank filtration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10477, 2025.

EGU25-11153 | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Microplastic particles in groundwater systems worldwide 

Uwe Schneidewind, Stefan Krause, Liam Kelleher, Julia Reiss, Daniel Perkins, Nicholas Barrett, and Anne Robertson
Microplastic particles (MPs) have been identified as potentially harmful to groundwater ecosystems. They can potentially enter aquifers through recharge water passing the vadose zone, through groundwater-surface water interactions, through wells and boreholes at water supply and managed aquifer recharge sites or at sites were river water or wastewater is extensively filtered through subsurface sediments. While first studies have identified MP contamination in groundwater, a clear picture of global MP concentrations in aquifers is still missing. However, such baseline information is required to understand the potential threat MPs pose the World’s groundwater resources.
 
Here we show results of global groundwater sampling undertaken by the scientific community. Samples were collected from aquifers around the world via accessible boreholes, monitoring wells, surface springs and caves. A low cost and easy-to-follow sampling protocol was developed to maximise participation during sampling and to ensure comparability among different field sites. At each sampling site, about 300 L of groundwater were collected and filtered on-site through a series of metal sieves (123 and 25 µm mesh size). Filtrates and meshes were then collected in glass vials and stored for further analysis. Additionally, passive air samples were collected at each site for quality control.
 
Sample processing in the lab included organic matter removal via digestion with hydrogen peroxide or Fenton reagent, density separation in glass separation units using zinc chloride, and staining with Nile Red dye. MP characterisation and polymer identification were carried out using fluorescence-guided Raman spectroscopy and an in-house spectral library. First results indicate a higher presence of fragments than fibres and of MPs between 25-123 µm than those larger than 123 µm. Identified concentrations range from 0.1 to almost 8 particles per litre.

How to cite: Schneidewind, U., Krause, S., Kelleher, L., Reiss, J., Perkins, D., Barrett, N., and Robertson, A.: Microplastic particles in groundwater systems worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11153, 2025.

EGU25-15142 | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Impact of Layering and Heterogeneity on the Transport Dynamics of Microplastics in Soil Columns: Implications for Groundwater Contamination 

Reza Dehbandi, Fuad Alqrinawi, Jaswant Singh, Uwe Schneidewind, and Stefan Krause

Microplastics (MPs) have emerged as a significant environmental concern, particularly due to their pervasive presence in various ecosystems, including soil and groundwater. These small plastic particles, often resulting from the degradation of larger plastic items, pose serious risks to ecological health and human safety. Their infiltration into groundwater systems is alarming, especially in agricultural practices utilizing mulching techniques, where microplastics can permeate porous media and potentially disrupt soil health and crop productivity. Despite the growing body of research on microplastics, most studies have focused on uniform soil matrices or sediments, neglecting the complexities of layered and heterogeneous aquifer systems. This study investigates the dynamics of polyethylene microplastics within soil column tests, specifically examining their transport behavior through stratified layers of coarse sand and small gravel. We utilized medium-sized microplastics (25 microns) embedded within a layered column consisting of coarse sand (500-1000 microns) and small gravel (4-8 mm), packed uniformly to simulate real-world conditions. Groundwater was injected into the columns at a flow rate of 12 mm per minute for 360 minutes. Water samples were collected at intervals of 5, 10, and 20 minutes for microplastic quantification using fluorescence microscopy after filtration. Post-experiment, sediment layers were sequentially removed every 6 cm to isolate and count microplastics using density separation methods. Results indicated a significantly faster movement of microplastics through gravel compared to sand, with the highest concentrations detected in the outflow from gravel columns. In mixed columns where gravel was positioned below sand, a greater number of microplastic particles were observed compared to when sand was below. This suggests that while gravel facilitates rapid transport, the arrangement of layers plays a critical role in determining the concentration of microplastics in the outflow. Additionally, entrapment of microplastics was most pronounced in the sand layers, while minimal retention occurred in gravel. Notable variations in microplastic counts were observed at the interface between gravel and sand in mixed sediment columns, highlighting the influence of layer interactions on transport dynamics. In conclusion, this study underscores the critical need to consider soil layering when assessing microplastic transport in agricultural settings. The findings reveal that microplastic dynamics are significantly affected by substrate composition and layering, which could have profound implications for groundwater quality and ecosystem health in agricultural landscapes. Further research is essential to explore the long-term effects of microplastic contamination on soil biota and crop systems, as well as to develop effective management strategies to mitigate their impact on environmental health.

Keywords: Microplastics, Soil layering, Transport dynamics, Groundwater contamination

How to cite: Dehbandi, R., Alqrinawi, F., Singh, J., Schneidewind, U., and Krause, S.: Impact of Layering and Heterogeneity on the Transport Dynamics of Microplastics in Soil Columns: Implications for Groundwater Contamination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15142, 2025.

EGU25-15405 | Orals | HS1.1.6

Occurrence and transport of microplastics across the streambed interface during bank filtration 

Matthias Munz, Constantin Loui, Marco Pittroff, and Sascha E. Oswald

Riverbed sediments have been identified as temporary and long-term accumulation sites for microplastic particles (MPs), but the transport and retention mechanisms still need to be better understood. Here we assess the occurrence and spatial distribution of MPs in surface water, riverbed sediments, and groundwater of two German lowland rivers (Teltow Canal and Havel), under prevailing infiltrating conditions. Surface water and groundwater samples were collected at each site on a monthly and three monthly basis over the course of one year, respectively. At each site, three sediment freeze cores up to a depth of 100 cm were taken, and, together with the water samples, analysed by near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) to infer the number of MPs (Ø > 100 µm), polymer types, and particle sizes.

The number of MPs detected varies considerably between the compartments (with concentrations in the groundwater being approximately one order of magnitude lower than in the river), the sampling sites, and also, but to a much lower extent, over the seasons. MPs were also detected throughout the entire depth of the sandy riverbed sediment, thereby highlighting the retention capacity of the riverbed sediments, but also the partial mobility of MPs from the river through the subsurface into the groundwater. These observations were supported by saturated column experiments with fluorescent polystyrene particles (fPS), which demonstrated that the vast majority of fPS were retained in the upper 20 cm or 15 cm of gravelly or sandy sediments for common filtration rates. However, it was also observed that approximately 0.3% of the introduced MPs, with sizes ranging from 100 µm to 500 µm, were transported throughout the entire column for a high filtration rate.

These results demonstrate that riverbed sediments have the capacity to retain MPs originating from surface water. Furthermore, they indicate that these sediments can also act as potential vectors for the infiltration of small MPs into local groundwater aquifers, especially under prevailing infiltrating conditions.

How to cite: Munz, M., Loui, C., Pittroff, M., and Oswald, S. E.: Occurrence and transport of microplastics across the streambed interface during bank filtration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15405, 2025.

EGU25-16631 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

First experimental evidence of fast leaching of small (1.7 µm) microplastics added to soil in field conditions 

Nick Krekelbergh, Jie Li, Patria Novita Kusuwardania, Yin Liu, Steven Sleutel, Bogdan Parakhonskiy, Richard Hoogenboom, André Skirtach, and Stefaan De Neve

Research on microplastics (MP) in soils is much complicated due to the lack of dedicated (extraction) methodologies and strong matrix interferences for MP detection, and there is almost no research on the dynamics of the smallest MP in soil. In our research we first compared the possible detection of the smallest MP fraction (1-2 µm) by µ-Raman spectroscopy and fluorescence microscopy in matrices of highly varying complexity. Subsequently, we have demonstrated that it is possible to use fluorescent MP to monitor and measure the rate of the leaching process of small MP in soils under field conditions.

In a first experiment, samples of pure quartz sand, soils with variable texture (sandy loam, silt loam, clay loam) and removal of native soil organic matter (SOM), and a sandy loam soil with native SOM still present were amended with fluorescent polystyrene (PS) microparticles (diameter 1.7 µm) in different concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 0.001%. After mixing and compaction both the Raman spectra and fluorescence microscopy images were obtained. Characteristic PS Raman fingerprint peaks (main peak at 1001 cm-1) were visible in quartz sand (all concentrations) as well as in sandy and silt loam soils without SOM (some concentrations), but not in the other situations, whereas fluorescence microscopy clearly visualized the MPs at all concentrations in all matrices.

In a second experiment, fluorescent PS microparticles were amended under field conditions to a sandy loam soil on a small surface area (circles of ± 0.2 m diameter), to a depth of 3 cm and at a rate of 70 mg kg-1 soil. At regular time intervals, samples were taken up to a depth of maximally 100 cm. The results of the experiment demonstrate the fast process of downward transport of the MP, reaching a depth of 30 cm after only 40 days and subsequently moving further through the vadose zone to get into range of the fluctuating groundwater table. Unambiguous fluorescent MP detection in real soil thus opens up new avenues for monitoring the vertical redistribution of the smallest MP fractions in the soil profile.

How to cite: Krekelbergh, N., Li, J., Kusuwardania, P. N., Liu, Y., Sleutel, S., Parakhonskiy, B., Hoogenboom, R., Skirtach, A., and De Neve, S.: First experimental evidence of fast leaching of small (1.7 µm) microplastics added to soil in field conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16631, 2025.

Microplastics (MPs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants that not only accumulate in sediments and biota but also act as vectors for toxic substances, facilitating the transport and dispersion of hazardous chemicals within ecosystems. Their environmental impact is exacerbated by their propensity to adsorb pollutants from their surroundings, a process influenced by the physicochemical properties of both the polymers and the contaminants. While MPs typically exhibit limited surface porosity, exposure to natural environmental factors, such as weathering, abrasion, and photo-oxidation, significantly alters their surface characteristics. These transformations result in structural modifications, including the incorporation of oxygen-containing functional groups, sulfhydryl groups, and persistent free radicals. Such alterations lead to the generation of negatively charged surfaces, which enhance the adsorption of metal cations and other pollutants, thereby amplifying their environmental persistence and toxicity.

This study aimed to investigate the distribution of MPs and their interactions between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) systems, with a particular focus on understanding how redox potential (ORP), and surface modifications influence their structural transformations, pollutant adsorption mechanisms, and role as carriers of hazardous substances within natural ecosystems. SW and GW samples were collected from various locations across Uttarakhand, India. In-situ parameters, including pH, conductivity, TDS, DO, temperature, salinity, pressure, ORP, turbidity, and alkalinity, were measured using a portable multiparameter probe (HANNA-HI9829-01201). The average concentration of MPs in the GW and SW samples was found to be 34 MPs/L and 29 MPs/L, respectively. In SW, the relationship between MPs and ORP appears less direct but is still influenced by ionic parameters such as conductivity and TDS, reflecting the potential for pollutant adsorption in regions with high redox activity. In GW, MPs exhibit a moderate correlation with ORP and alkalinity, suggesting that redox conditions may play a significant role in their behavior or interaction with other pollutants. Notably, pH and ORP were clustered together in both GW and SW, suggesting a link between acidity/alkalinity and redox conditions driven by shared environmental or geochemical processes. This research provides key insights into MPs' behavior, aiding strategies to combat water pollution and guide policies to protect ecosystems and public health.

Keywords: microplastics; redox; emerging contaminants; transport; interactions.

How to cite: Dogra, K.: Microplastic-Facilitated Transport of Emerging Contaminants in Redox-Active Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17448, 2025.

EGU25-17588 | Orals | HS1.1.6

The role of floodplain vegetation in filtering microplastics during a major Rhine flood event 

Markus Rolf, Hannes Laermanns, Christian Laforsch, Martin G. J. Löder, and Christina Bogner

Microplastics in rivers originate from various sources and can be transported by river water. During their time in the river, the properties of microplastics may change leading to a temporary deposition and accumulation in the riverbed. In particular, during floodings, stronger flow velocities occur and can remobilize microplastics and sediments, transporting them further downstream and to adjacent floodplains. Floodplains represent dynamic and vegetation-rich environments, where the vegetation increases the floodplains’ roughness, resulting in slower flow velocities during floods and potentially enhance deposition of sediments and microplastics. While previous research has shown that factors such as local topography and flood frequency influence microplastic distribution in floodplains, however, the role of vegetation in microplastic filtering during floods has not been studied. 
This study investigates the retention of microplastics and natural sediments by floodplain grassland vegetation during a major river flood. Directly after the flood event in July 2021, we sampled vegetation from a formerly flooded Rhine floodplain north of Cologne, Germany. For comparison we sampled vegetation from an adjacent non-flooded grassland, which was only affected by atmospheric microplastic deposition. After rinsing the deposits from the vegetation, we used ZnCl₂ density separation to extract microplastics, followed by enzymatic-oxidative purification to remove organic material and µ-FPA-FTIR imaging for microplastic analysis.  
Our findings show that microplastics from fluvial and atmospheric origin differ in terms of their numbers, shapes, sizes, and polymer types. Concerning the samples from flooded vegetation, higher vegetation biomass was associated with increased deposition of both natural sediments and small microplastics. However, we observed distinct deposition patterns for natural sediments and microplastics. Our results provide valuable insights into the role of floodplain vegetation in the retention, accumulation, and distribution of microplastics at the interface between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.

How to cite: Rolf, M., Laermanns, H., Laforsch, C., Löder, M. G. J., and Bogner, C.: The role of floodplain vegetation in filtering microplastics during a major Rhine flood event, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17588, 2025.

EGU25-18093 | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

Avoiding Bias in Microplastic Transport: Development of an Improved Dispersant-Free Soil Column Experiment Protocol 

Yifan Lu, Markus Rolf, Julian Brehm, Hao Liu, Julian Wagenhofer, Rizwan Khaleel, Hannes Laermanns, Christian Laforsch, Frank Nitsche, Martin G.J. Löder, Stephan Gekle, and Christina Bogner

Microplastics (MPs) have emerged as contaminants of global concern due to their ubiquity and potential ecological risks. Understanding MP transport, behavior, and fate in soils is crucial for assessing their interactions with soil organisms and for conducting environmental risk assessments. Most studies on MP transport are conducted in laboratory settings, often using soil column experiments. These experiments typically examine MP mobility by assessing the retention of MPs in different soil types under varying flow conditions. To ensure consistent MP application over time or volume, dispersants are frequently added to MP suspensions, particularly when targeting floating or highly hydrophobic MPs. However, dispersants may alter both the behavior of MPs and their interactions with soil particles, potentially introducing biases when attempting to understand natural MP transport—a critical aspect that remains underexplored.

Therefore, this study developed an improved soil column experiment protocol that excludes dispersants while maintaining consistent MP application through a low-liquid-level, continuously stirred suspension. The Coefficient of Variation (< 5%) for this improved experimental design is found to be statistically acceptable.

Based on this improved method, MP transport was investigated in soil column experiments with quartz and natural sandy soil as matrices. Rhodamine B-stained polystyrene (RhB-PS) particles (D90 < 10 µm) were intermittently pumped upward into the columns, with and without the dispersant (0.25% v/v Tween 20). Drainage samples were collected after each RhB-PS application and during intermittent flushing with artificial rainwater. Fluorescence microscopy was used to quantify RhB-PS concentrations in the drainage samples on haematocrit plates.

The analysis of drainage samples revealed that dispersants significantly enhanced MP mobility, allowing more MPs to bypass soil retention. The clay and organic matter in natural sandy soil, through their fine particles and surface charges, may potentially enhance the interaction between microplastics and soil, thereby reducing their movement within the natural sandy soil, regardless of whether dispersants were used. These results suggest that existing transport studies and related models, which are based on dispersant-assisted experiments, may not accurately reflect the natural behavior of MPs in soils.

How to cite: Lu, Y., Rolf, M., Brehm, J., Liu, H., Wagenhofer, J., Khaleel, R., Laermanns, H., Laforsch, C., Nitsche, F., G.J. Löder, M., Gekle, S., and Bogner, C.: Avoiding Bias in Microplastic Transport: Development of an Improved Dispersant-Free Soil Column Experiment Protocol, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18093, 2025.

EGU25-18937 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.6

Transport of Microplastics Through Porous Media: Influence of Porosity and Pore-Water Velocity  

Shravani Yadav, Prof. Brijesh Kumar Yadav, and Prof. Stefan Krause

In recent years, microplastics (MPs), have infiltrated diverse environments, including oceans, rivers, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, soils, sediments, air, human tissues, food systems, and even the atmosphere. Among these, groundwater, a critical freshwater source for industrial, agricultural, and domestic applications faces increasing threats from MPs pollution. There is still a knowledge gap in understanding the mechanisms and the pathways governing the transport of MPs in complex groundwater systems, which remains a significant research challenge. Hence, to understand the transport of MPs through the porous media, we have conducted a series of one-dimensional (1D) column transport experiments.  To quantify the transport of MPs through the porous media, two types of MPs with different functional groups, polypropylene (PP, C­­3H6) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET- C­­10H8O4) of size 100-200 µm are considered for the present study. The experiments are conducted using porous media of IS Grade I (2mm-1mm, d50= 1.5mm) and Grade II (1mm- 0.5mm, d50= 0.75mm) experimental sand. Various flow velocities were used to determine the most vulnerable pore-water velocity on the transport of these contaminants through the porous media.  For each case, the experiment is conducted for 10 pore volume and after 10 pore volumes, the sand samples from different depths of the column are taken to determine the number of particles attached to the sand grains. We have observed that, as pore volume increases, the MPs count rises steadily for most samples, indicating enhanced transport through the porous media. This suggests that MPs are progressively mobilized through the porous media as the pore volume expands, with certain volumes contributing more significantly to the overall transport dynamics. Coarser sands (Grade I) with more prominent pores facilitate higher MPs movement, while finer sands (Grade II) reduce transport due to greater retention. Additionally, higher pore-water velocity enhances MP mobility, suggesting that environmental conditions with coarser soil and increased water flow can lead to greater MPs dispersion, impacting its distribution in natural soil-water systems. The findings of this study can play a crucial role in applying indirect site interventions to avoid the spreading of MPs through porous media at polluted sites.

How to cite: Yadav, S., Yadav, P. B. K., and Krause, P. S.: Transport of Microplastics Through Porous Media: Influence of Porosity and Pore-Water Velocity , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18937, 2025.

EGU25-21474 | ECS | Orals | HS1.1.6

Microplastics in Road Sediment of Typical Urban Districts of Beijing: Characteristics and Risk Assessment 

Yuyang Gu, Xiaoran Zhang, Junfeng Liu, Jie Deng, Ziyang Zhang, Chaohong Tan, Haiyan Li, and Yuangsheng Hu

Microplastics (MPs) in urban areas threaten ecosystems, causing water and soil contamination, as well as health risks. This study examined MPs in road sediments from five functional areas in Daxing District, Beijing, using characterization and risk assessment methods. The abundance of MPs ranged from 2060 to 8680 items/kg, with business areas showing the highest levels, followed by traffic, residential, leisure, and cultural/educational areas. These variations are likely influenced by human activities, urbanization, and traffic volume. MPs were primarily in fragmented forms, with polypropylene (PP) (43%-87%) and polyethylene (PE) (5%-33%) being the most common polymers. Fragmentation characteristics varied, with cultural/educational areas showing the highest α values despite fewer large MPs. Lower λ values (2.80-5.00) suggest a higher potential for MPs to break down, possibly contributing to stormwater pollution. Multiple risk assessments indicate that the presence of polymers like PP and PE contributes to elevated MP risks in both traffic and residential areas. These areas have been identified as "hotspots" with moderate to high pollution risks. Despite frequent street cleaning in traffic areas, contamination persists. In contrast, leisure areas, with lower human activity, have a reduced risk of MP contamination. These findings can inform effective control measures for MP pollution in urban road sediments.

How to cite: Gu, Y., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Deng, J., Zhang, Z., Tan, C., Li, H., and Hu, Y.: Microplastics in Road Sediment of Typical Urban Districts of Beijing: Characteristics and Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21474, 2025.

EGU25-21555 | Posters on site | HS1.1.6

The plastic underground – Exploring the mechanisms controlling the fate and transport of microplastics in the subsurface 

Stefan Krause, Uwe Schneidewind, Fuad Alqrinawi, Zijan Chen, Bruno Fraga, Reza Dehbandi, Jesus Gomez Velez, Petros Mecaj, Lizeth Cardoza Pedroza, Laurent Simon, Florian Mermillod Blondin, Brice Mourier, Laurence Volatier, Laurent Lassabatiere, Liam Kelleher, Sophie Comer-Warner, Zoraida Quinones, Iseult Lynch, Jaswant Singh, and Brijesh Yadav

While there have been advances in understanding the above ground plastic cycle, there is still a substantial lack of understanding the sources and activation mechanisms of plastic pollution affecting the entry, fate, transport, transformation and impact of microplastics into soils, riverbeds, sediment and groundwater aquifers.

We here present the initial outcomes of integrated field and laboratory analytical experimental approaches and mathematical modelling studies to provide mechanistic understanding of the overall magnitude as well as hot spots (and hot moments) of microplastic entry into subsurface ecosystems and their transport and transformation pathways. Our model results highlight that a large proportion (>95%) of all mismanaged plastic waste emitted since the 1950s is temporarily stored in river basins and able to enter subsurface ecosystems in the long-term. Using multi-scale modelling studies in combination with artificial river simulators (flumes) and laboratory column experiments we evidence that hyporheic exchange represents a preferential input mechanism for smaller and lighter microplastics into streambed sediments and underlying groundwater ecosystems. This finding maps directly onto field experimental findings from our global monitoring programmes which identified distinct hotspots of microplastic accumulation. Soil and streambed sediment columns were deployed to explore the controls on microplastic transport once they have entered the subsurface, highlighting that in particular intermittent pulsed hydraulic forcing increases the potential for fast particle transport.

How to cite: Krause, S., Schneidewind, U., Alqrinawi, F., Chen, Z., Fraga, B., Dehbandi, R., Gomez Velez, J., Mecaj, P., Cardoza Pedroza, L., Simon, L., Mermillod Blondin, F., Mourier, B., Volatier, L., Lassabatiere, L., Kelleher, L., Comer-Warner, S., Quinones, Z., Lynch, I., Singh, J., and Yadav, B.: The plastic underground – Exploring the mechanisms controlling the fate and transport of microplastics in the subsurface, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21555, 2025.

HS1.2 – Innovative sensors and monitoring in hydrology

EGU25-400 | PICO | HS1.2.1

From innovative sensors to steady data streams: The TEMBO Africa project 

Nick van de Giesen, Frank Annor, Sylvester Nsobire Ayambila, Kwame Duah, Tomáš Fico, Andrea Gatti, Olivier Hoes, Gordana Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Salvador Peña-Haro, Eugenio Realini, Hubert Samboko, and Hessel Winsemius

TEMBO Africa is a Horizon Europe project that seeks to improve in situ sensing of weather and water in sub-Saharan Africa. To ensure beyond-the-project sustainability, we are using innovative sensors to measure variables such as rainfall, bathymetry, river flow, and large-scale soil moisture. TEMBO also develops services for hydropower, agriculture, and disaster management. These services will produce societal and economical value, for which governments and companies are willing to pay. These payments, in turn, serve to maintain the observation networks. One guiding principle is that the new data gathering method should cost less than 10% of existing methods in term of total costs of ownership. This principle implicitly pays special attention to the local availability of human resources. Many monitoring projects in Africa consist of installation by experts from the Global North, followed by a short training of local technicians. This works nicely until something breaks down. In TEMBO, African universities and spin-off companies are co-developing the technologies such that any operational problems can be solved without flying in expensive foreign experts.  

In this presentation, we will go through the sensor innovations and how these feed into different products and services.

 

How to cite: van de Giesen, N., Annor, F., Ayambila, S. N., Duah, K., Fico, T., Gatti, A., Hoes, O., Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G., Peña-Haro, S., Realini, E., Samboko, H., and Winsemius, H.: From innovative sensors to steady data streams: The TEMBO Africa project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-400, 2025.

EGU25-1828 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Hydraulic conductivity estimation in Porous Media: Insights from Neural computing 

Abhishish Chandel and Vijay Shankar

Precise estimation of hydraulic conductivity (K) in porous media is vital for advancing hydrological and subsurface flow investigations. Groundwater experts have increasingly adopted neural computing approaches to indirectly determine K in porous media, offering a more efficient alternative to conventional methods. The research focuses on developing the Feed-Forward neural network (FFNN) and Kohonen Self-organizing maps (KSOM) models to compute the K using easily measurable porous media parameters i.e., grain-size, uniformity coefficient, and porosity. The observed data were split into 70% and 30% for the development and validation phase, respectively. The developed model's performance was examined via statistical indicators, including root mean square error (RMSE), determination coefficient (R²), and mean bias error (MBE). The findings suggest that the FFNN model significantly outperforms the KSOM model in estimating the K value, with the KSOM model achieving only moderate accuracy. During the validation phase, the FFNN model shows a stronger correlation with the measured values, yielding RMSE, R², and MBE values of 0.016, 0.94, and 0.006, while the KSOM model returns values of 0.024, 0.91, and -0.004 respectively. The FFNN model's superior predictive ability makes it a reliable tool for accurate K estimation in aquifers.

How to cite: Chandel, A. and Shankar, V.: Hydraulic conductivity estimation in Porous Media: Insights from Neural computing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1828, 2025.

EGU25-1910 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Large-scale Soil Moisture Monitoring: A New Approach 

Ilektra Tsimpidi, Konstantinos Soulis, and George Nikolakopoulos

Soil moisture is a critical factor for understanding the interactions and feedback between the atmosphere and Earth's surface, particularly through energy and water cycles. It also plays a key role in land climate and hydrological processes. Recent advancements in autonomous robotic applications for precision agriculture have introduced significant solutions, particularly in remote sensing. Currently, these platforms enable autonomous soil parameter measurement and on-site data collection, which is essential for resource optimization and data-driven agricultural decision-making. However, challenges persist, especially in real-time soil moisture monitoring—a key focus for improving irrigation efficiency, water use, and crop yields. Soil moisture measurement in-situ techniques include the accurate oven-drying method and soil moisture sensors, while satellite remote sensing uses optical, thermal, and microwave imaging to estimate surface soil moisture from a broader perspective. However, fully autonomous robotised sampling procedures for optimising the process, increasing repeatability and overall accuracy, as well as increasing the reachability of the sampling of remote areas, are still not utilized.

Soil moisture measurement in-situ techniques include the accurate oven-drying method and soil moisture sensors, while satellite remote sensing uses optical, thermal, and microwave imaging to estimate surface soil moisture from a broader perspective. However, fully autonomous robotised sampling procedures for optimising the process, increasing repeatability and overall accuracy, as well as increasing the reachability of the sampling of remote areas, are still not utilized.

Measuring soil moisture presents a significant challenge due to its reliance on human labour, which is required to cover extensive areas for sensor measurements manually. Additionally, soil moisture measurements at a specific point vary with time and environmental conditions, making these values unstable. While satellites offer a potential solution to some of these issues, their accuracy is affected by environmental factors such as cloud cover and dense vegetation, while they only describe the upper soil layer. Moreover, ground measurements of surface soil moisture are still necessary for calibrating and training the satellite systems. To address these challenges, we propose an adaptable in situ method for automating soil moisture measurements.

Our approach introduces AgriOne, an autonomous soil moisture measurement robot leveraging a surface-aware data collection framework to achieve precise and efficient soil moisture assessments, thereby minimizing reliance on permanent sensors and reducing associated costs and labour. The hardware of AgriOne consists of a UGV Husky A200 from Clearpath Robotics loaded with the soil moisture sensor TEROS12 from Meter Group. The sensor is mounted on a linear actuator probe, as shown in the figure.  

To evaluate the proposed approach, we conducted two field experiments in different locations under different weather and soil conditions. The experiments were successful in both cases, and we collected 70 and 66 measurements, respectively, of surface soil moisture. For the first experiment, we covered an area of 380m2 in 57 minutes, and for the second experiment, we covered an area of 800m2 in 2,5 hours. The results showed proof of concept because of the workability of the AgriOne robot and the reliability of the data collection framework. 

 

How to cite: Tsimpidi, I., Soulis, K., and Nikolakopoulos, G.: Large-scale Soil Moisture Monitoring: A New Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1910, 2025.

EGU25-2786 | PICO | HS1.2.1 | Highlight

Bathymetric Survey and Underwater Structure Inspection for Hydraulic Engineering in Shallow Waters Using Unmanned Surface Vehicles 

XiaoQing Gan, Peng Wan, Jianzhou Li, and Bangning Ding

Bathymetric surveys and underwater structure inspections are critical for ensuring the safe operation of hydraulic engineering projects. Accurate data on topographical changes and structural conditions help mitigate operational risks caused by erosion, scouring, or structural deficiencies. However, traditional manned vessels face significant limitations in shallow and complex areas, such as downstream spillways, due to accessibility and maneuverability challenges.

The development of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) offers an efficient and precise alternative for surveying and inspection in shallow water environments. This study utilized the Huawei-3 USV to conduct a bathymetric survey and underwater structure inspection in the shallow downstream area of the spillway at the Wangfuzhou Hydropower Station, Hubei Province, China.

The survey employed the Huawei-3 USV, equipped with high-precision echo sounders and RTK systems, to collect bathymetric and structural data. Water surface elevation data were acquired using RTK measurements, with water levels observed five times before and after the survey to establish a reference elevation. In areas less than 2 meters deep, RTK was also used to directly measure the bottom elevation. The USV combined its draft depth and transducer depth with RTK-derived water surface elevations to calculate the bottom elevation. Satellite imagery was used for pre-planning survey lines, which were aligned parallel to the downstream protective apron, spaced 5 meters apart, ensuring a point spacing of approximately 2 meters. In complex or nearshore areas, manual control was applied to densify survey lines. Data processing involved converting depth to elevation, noise filtering, and generating CAD and 3D models.

The results revealed significant scouring near the downstream protective apron, forming a scour pit with an area of 2,897.2 m², a minimum elevation of 70.26 m, and a proximity of 6.87 m to the reinforced apron edge. The overall underwater topography of the reinforced apron section closely matched the design, with a minimum measured elevation of 70.937 m, differing by only 6.3 cm from the designed elevation of 71 m, indicating stability. However, a portion of the 73 m design elevation zone showed scouring depths up to 25 cm, with an average depth of 12.5 cm. No significant deepening of scour was observed between 2022 and 2024.

The findings demonstrate that USV-based bathymetric systems are highly applicable in shallow water environments, achieving data accuracy that meets regulatory standards. These systems effectively identify scour pits and structural changes, providing reliable data support for ensuring the safe operation of hydraulic engineering projects. Moreover, the method shows significant potential for application in other shallow, complex water environments in the future.

How to cite: Gan, X., Wan, P., Li, J., and Ding, B.: Bathymetric Survey and Underwater Structure Inspection for Hydraulic Engineering in Shallow Waters Using Unmanned Surface Vehicles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2786, 2025.

Evaporation from the water surface is among the main water losses from natural and artificial lakes and ponds. Air temperature (Ta), wind speed (va), relative humidity (RH), atmospheric pressure (pa), surface water temperature (Tw) and radiation (R) are among the physical controls of this process. In recent years, water temperature data have increasingly become available so that the question arises, if the measurement of radiation (which, in turn, affects water temperature) may still be required.

The method employed in this study is modelling of daily evaporation by means of artificial neural networks (ANNs) of the multilayer perceptron type (backpropagation, one hidden layer), using varying sets of input variables. Evaporation data from a white Class A pan (Qiu et al., 2022) served as target (50 patterns of daily averages). A logistic activation function was used. Data records were divided 2:1 into training and testing sets, resp.

Data were scaled to the interval between 0.1 and 0.9, and for each run (105 epochs) the root mean square error (RMSE) of the scaled output was computed.

Learning rate (η), momentum (α) and number of hidden nodes were subject to optimization for three different sets of input variables. ANN runs of series S1 comprised Ta, va, RH, pa, Tw and incoming solar radiation (R) as inputs (6 in total). Series S2 and S3 were subsets of S1, with S2 using Ta, va, RH, pa and Tw as inputs. For the input data of Series S3, water temperature Tw  was replaced by radiation R.

The neural networks achieved a fair representation of the evaporation data. Optimization yielded a minimum RMSE for Series S1 of 0.0514 and 0.0669 for training and testing, resp. (6 hidden nodes, η=0.009 and α=0.0). 

Using the same input variables with the exception of the incoming radiation (in total, therefore, 5 inputs) S2 reached a minimum training RMSE of 0.0557 and a minimum testing RMSE of 0.0887 (5 hidden nodes, η=0.012 and α=0.0).

Series S3 with the 5 inputs Ta, va, RH, pa and R (with water temperature left out), finally achieved an RMSE of 0.0545 for training and 0.0775 for testing, resp. (6 hidden nodes, η=0.006 and α=0.2).

Comparison of Series S2 and S3 shows that, in the case of the data set studied here, the ANNs including incoming radiation among their input variables (but excluding water temperature) outperformed those explicitly accounting for water temperature in lieu of radiation. Using both radiation and water temperature as inputs (S1) resulted in a notable improvement of the ANN output as compared to the runs with either of these variables not accounted for explicitly.

References

Qiu, G. Y., Gao, H., Yan, C., Wang, B., Luo, J., & Chen, Z. (2022): An improved approach for estimating pan evaporation using a new aerodynamic mechanism model. Water Resources Research, 58, e2020WR027870. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027870.

How to cite: Schmid, B.: On the relative importance of water temperature versus radiation for ANN-based pan evaporation modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2944, 2025.

The primary objective of groundwater analysis is to determine the direction and velocity of water flow, which are essential for effective groundwater resource management and contaminant investigation. Conventional methods of evaluating groundwater flow direction, such as using solute or thermal tracers, require the installation of multiple observation wells and are typically laborious, expensive, and time-consuming. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of observation wells and the heterogeneity of aquifers often lead to inaccurate estimations of groundwater flow velocity and direction. Accordingly, this study proposes a novel approach: the thermal vector distributed temperature sensor (TV-DTS) method, combined with a heated line source, to overcome these challenges. The TV-DTS apparatus consists of a single heated fiber and four sensing fibers. The heated fiber functions as the heat source, while the sensing fibers are used to measure temperature changes. These measurements are then used to determine the direction and velocity of water flow by the analytical solution derived from the heat transfer with a heated line source. This method employs only a single-well heating test to estimate both the direction and velocity of groundwater flow, eliminating the need for multiple wells and significantly reducing the time and financial resources. Besides, the TV-DTS has several advantages, such as the ability to provide continuous spatial-temporal temperature data, ensuring reliable and high-resolution monitoring. Two groundwater contamination sites in northern and southern Taiwan have be selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of TV-DTS. The preliminary results showed that at the northern site, the flow direction was predominantly northeast to southwest, with velocities ranging from 0.25 - 0.34 m/day at different depths. In contrast, at the southern site, the flow direction was mainly toward west with higher velocities of 0.1 – 8.0 m/day. The estimated directions and velocities from both sites aligned with previous studies; however, uncertainties were higher at the southern site due to greater velocities observed. This method provides a high-resolution, cost-effective approach for hydrogeological investigations and contaminated sites assessment, serving as a valuable reference for the future investigation and evaluation of hydrogeological characterization.

Keywords: groundwater flow direction, groundwater flow velocity, heat transfer, distributed temperature sensors, borehole, uncertainty, contamination

How to cite: Liu, C. H. and Chiu, Y. C.: Utilizing distributed temperature sensors in a single well with a heating line source to simultaneously estimate the direction and velocity of groundwater flow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3004, 2025.

EGU25-3849 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Performance of the Image Wave Velocimetry Estimation for physics-based non-contact discharge measurement in rivers 

Salvador Peña-Haro, Giulio Dolcetti, and Hessel Winsemius

Herein we present an analysis of the performance of the Image Wave Velocimetry Estimation (IWaVE), a python library for image-based river discharge calculations.  IWaVE simultaneously performs a 2D velocimetry analysis and calculates the stream depth through 2D Fourier transform, exploiting the sensitivity of water wave dynamics to flow conditions. Unlike existing velocimetry approaches such as Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), Particle Tracking Velocimetry (PTV) or Space-Time Image Velocimetry (STIV), the uniqueness of this approach lies in: 1) velocities that are advective of nature can be distinguished from other wave forms such as wind waves. This makes the approach particularly useful in estuaries or river stretches affected strongly by wind, or in shallow streams in the presence of standing waves. 2) The velocity is estimated based on the physical behavior of the water surface, accounting for the speed of propagation of waves and ripples relative to the main flow. This makes the approach more robust than traditional methods when there are no visible tracers. 3)  If the depth is not known, it can be estimated along with the optimization of x and y-directional velocity. Depth estimations are reliable only in fast and shallow flows, where wave dynamics are significantly affected by the finite depth.

We analyzed 2 videos recorded from a drone on a site in the Netherlands over a tidal channel in Zeeland at Waterdunen - Breskens. One of the videos has strong winds, which creates waves moving upstream. ADCP measurements for both videos are available. The videos were taken at different moments during different tidal conditions, they were processed using IWaVE, a LSPIV and a STIV methods. The results show that the LSPIV, STIV and IWaVE are in good agreement with the ADCP measurements for the case where there is no wind. However when there is wind the LSPIV and STIV methods fail to obtain the correct surface velocity, while the velocity calculated with IWaVE is in good accordance with the ADCP.

How to cite: Peña-Haro, S., Dolcetti, G., and Winsemius, H.: Performance of the Image Wave Velocimetry Estimation for physics-based non-contact discharge measurement in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3849, 2025.

EGU25-4525 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Enhancing Urban Resilience to Surface Water Flooding: A Novel Approach Using UAS-Derived Topographic Indices 

Rakhee Ramachandran, Monica Rivas Casado, Yadira Bajon Fernandez, and Ian Truckell

With the increase in urbanisation and climate change around the globe, there is an increased risk of surface water flooding. Although extreme flood events are commonly discussed, smaller, more frequent flood events also cause significant disruptions that impact human life and put financial stress on authorities. The majority of urban flooding is due to drainage failure. For effective surface water management, it is important to assess the effectiveness of existing surface drainage assets and accordingly plan asset maintenance or retrofitting of new drainage assets (both traditional and nature-based solutions). The surface drains usually fail because they are either not positioned where the surface water accumulates or are blocked and not maintained to meet the standards. Microtopography significantly influences the surface water flow movement, flow path, flow direction, and velocity, and consequently, dictates the areas of water accumulation.  Thefore, this study explores a novel approach to evaluate storm drain inlet positions using high-resolution topographic indices maps derived from Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) imagery. The Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Topographic Control Index (TCI) were employed to identify drains misaligned with surface water pathways and pinpoint critical drains in the sink points of the topography, respectively. 


Storm drain inlets were classified as functional or non-functional based on their intersection with the flow path defined by the optimal TWI threshold. The optimal threshold was determined to be the 90th percentile at a value of 6.19 based on the spatial similarity of the delineated runoff-contributing flow path with the 1 in 100 year surface water flood map produced by the Environment Agency. The validation of the classification of storm drains effectiveness based on TWI using field data yielded an overall accuracy of 53 %, 75% precision, and an F1 score of 62%, indicating a moderate success of TWI in identifying functional drains. Although validation with LIDAR data showed a slight improvement in accuracy and precision, the results generally demonstrated that TWI has a strong capability to correctly identify functional drains; however, it is slightly more challenging to identify nonfunctional drains. 


A comparison of the UAS-derived TCI map with the LIDAR-derived TCI map demonstrated a 90% match in the identified sink areas and a high accuracy of 93% in identifying critical drains in the sink areas. The results suggest that the combined use of TWI and TCI offers a promising approach for assessing storm drain effectiveness, based on its position and guiding authorities in identifying areas with drainage deficits and preparing targeted drainage maintenance strategies. The findings of this research provide valuable insights for urban planners and decision-makers to not only optimise the placement and maintenance of storm drain inlets but also highlight the potential for alternative nature-based low-impact development (LID) solutions in locations where traditional drainage is found to be inefficient. This would ultimately enhance the resilience of urban areas to surface-water flooding.

How to cite: Ramachandran, R., Rivas Casado, M., Bajon Fernandez, Y., and Truckell, I.: Enhancing Urban Resilience to Surface Water Flooding: A Novel Approach Using UAS-Derived Topographic Indices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4525, 2025.

The ability to record high-resolution data for extended periods using affordable systems can improve the study of hydrological and environmental processes. Unlike commercial alternatives, publicly available open-source sensors can be implemented at a significantly lower cost, allowing higher spatiotemporal resolution and continuous, real-time monitoring. In this presentation, I will outline the fundamental principles, advantages, and challenges of using open-source, self-assembly hardware for hydrological related monitoring using two novel systems. The first system is an incubation chamber system composed of O₂, CO₂, CH₄ low-cost sensors for monitoring gas fluxes from sludge samples, specifically tested on wetland samples under different temperature, oxygen, and light conditions. The second system consists of a portable photoreactor/spectrophotometer driven by Raspberry Pi and Arduino UNO microcontrollers. Validation tests of the photoreactor system were performed in one preliminary design for Rhodamine B dye photodegradation, in which the spectral module was constituted by seven arrays of high-power LED of different wavelengths (UVC and VIS), bismuth ferrite (BiFeO₃) catalyst, and hydrogen peroxide. Results showed significant dye degradation (39.7%) at high chamber temperature (45 °C). The performance of this system is improved in a new design, which includes an exchangeable light module, sampling system, and a spectrophotometer for real-time monitoring of the photocatalytic process in water. Complete technical guides on design, assembly, and installation are provided for both systems, aiming to promote their reproducibility and application for new microbial activity studies and laboratory water treatment applications.

How to cite: Orozco, D.: New open-source, self-assembly tools to study microbial activity and water treatment applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5229, 2025.

Soil Aquifer Treatment (SAT) is a widely adopted managed aquifer recharge technique that employs natural soil filtration processes to improve the quality of secondary treated wastewater. As treated wastewater percolates through the unsaturated zone, complex interactions occur between dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the soil matrix, leading to the transformation or retention of organic contaminants. Understanding the fate of DOM within SAT systems is essential for optimizing water quality outcomes and ensuring the sustainability of water reuse practices.

Fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) has emerged as an effective tracer for characterizing DOM dynamics in water systems. By utilizing excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) in conjunction with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC), fDOM allows for the identification of distinct molecular fractions, their origins (such as microbial or terrestrial), and their reactivity within SAT environments. However, the mechanisms that govern the retention and transformation of specific fDOM fractions during soil passage remain inadequately understood.

In this study, we employed advanced fluorescence spectroscopy to monitor the behaviour of fDOM molecules in a full-scale SAT basin recharging treated wastewater. By integrating EEM-PARAFAC analysis with in-situ water sampling along the vertical profile of the soil, we uncovered complex and varied transformations in DOM as treated wastewater permeated through the soil. Shifts in fluorescence signals indicated a dynamic interplay of processes affecting DOM fractions, including changes in composition and reactivity throughout the infiltration pathway. These patterns illuminate the evolving interactions between organic matter and the soil environment, influenced by biotic and abiotic factors.

This research underscores the potential of fluorescence-based monitoring tools to provide high-resolution, molecular-level insights into DOM dynamics in SAT systems. Such advancements can enhance the design and operation of SAT basins for improved water quality management and resource sustainability.

How to cite: Adler‬‏, O., Nakonechny, F., and Arye, G.: The fate of fluorescent dissolved organic matter molecules in recharged secondary treated wastewater within soil aquifer treatment (SAT) basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5916, 2025.

EGU25-6748 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Development of a Low-Cost Soil Moisture Sensor Station for Hydrological Monitoring 

Veethahavya Kootanoor Sheshadrivasan and Jakub Langhammer

The growing demand for high-resolution hydrological data necessitates innovative, scalable, and cost-effective monitoring solutions. This study presents the development of a low-cost soil moisture sensor station designed to address these challenges by leveraging advancements in open-source hardware and software.

The sensor station employs modified versions of commercially available capacitive soil moisture sensors, selected after a thorough review of existing technologies and preliminary evaluations to balance affordability and robustness. Built around the Raspberry Pi Pico microcontroller, the station features modular MicroPython programming, combined with a real-time clock (RTC) and an SD card module for robust data logging. Reconfiguration is streamlined through a JSON-based setup, avoiding the need for firmware modifications.

A custom-designed power supply unit, powered by a Li-Poly battery recharged using a 5W solar panel, ensures long-term operation. The station employs power-saving sleep modes during dormant periods, enabling continuous logging at intervals as low as 15 minutes even under suboptimal sunlight conditions in continental Europe, as per conservative estimates. Housed in a 3D-printed enclosure, the main control unit integrates ports for connecting up to three capacitive soil moisture sensors (3.3/5 V Analogue Out) at various depths, a (DHT 11) temperature and relative humidity sensor, and a UART interface for real-time access to runtime logs.

The affordability of the proposed design potentially allows for the deployment of multiple stations for the cost of a single commercially available system. This scalability is particularly critical for applications requiring dense sensor networks, such as watershed-scale studies, hydrological forecasting, or localized climate impact assessments. While acknowledging that the precision and robustness of such systems may not fully match commercial counterparts, this trade-off is expected to be offset by their adaptability and wide applicability in aforementioned cases.

Advancements in monitoring and communication technologies brought about by the "Industry 4.0" phenomena have been instrumental in enabling the design and development of this sensor station. By harnessing these innovations, the study demonstrates how innovative, cost-efficient technologies can be adapted for hydrological monitoring applications. This work wishes to not only showcase the potential of such advancements to bridge the technological and economic barriers in environmental monitoring but also wishes to highlight their role in addressing the growing gap between the demand for hydrological data and its availability.

This study aspires to facilitate and encourage further translation of advancements in monitoring and communication technologies from the "Industry 4.0" era into hydrological monitoring systems in the hope that such advancements could help democratize access to hydrological monitoring technologies, potentially addressing critical data gaps, and in-turn enabling better-informed water management and research practices.

How to cite: Kootanoor Sheshadrivasan, V. and Langhammer, J.: Development of a Low-Cost Soil Moisture Sensor Station for Hydrological Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6748, 2025.

EGU25-6948 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Hydrological Monitoring of Rivers and Reservoirs Using Innovative Image Processing and Satellite-based Approaches 

Issa Hansen, Salvador Peña-Haro, Beat Luethi, Kerstin Stelzer, and Marcel König

The combination of in-situ measuring systems and non-intrusive optical technologies can highly improve the monitoring of water quantity and water quality in rivers and reservoirs. This paper presents two applications about innovative camera-based and satellite-based approaches to estimate flow velocity, water level, discharge, turbidity and chlorophyll concentration. The river site of the first case study presented is equipped with a DischargeKeeper, a camera-based discharge measuring system for a continuous measurement of water level, velocity and discharge in real time, and with a Multi-Parameter System MPS for water quality measurement. The MPS measures water temperature, turbidity, oxygen concentration, oxygen saturation, electric conductivity and total suspended solids TSS. The MPS probe is connected to a data logger with data transmission module to deliver measured data in real time. The DK offers. The DK consists of a video camera, an infrared beamer for illumination, a central unit for data processing, a modem for data transfer and a power supply. In operational use the camera takes video sequences of around 5s in predefined intervals, usually ranging from a few minutes to several hours. To determine the surface flow velocity of the river a processing technique called Surface Structure Image Velocimetry (SSIV) is applied. The transmitted proof images with time stamp are very helpful for the optical verification of the measurement especially during flood events.  Furthermore, the camera used can be installed at almost any position with respect to the flow, regardless of the presence of a bridge, as far as the flow is in the view of the camera with a good resolution.

Optical satellite sensors, which is the second case study of this paper, provide the opportunity to determine water constituents for whole water bodies. It is possible to derive optically active substances, which leads to good assessment of chlorophyll concentration as a proxy for algal blooms, of the water turbidity, coloured dissolved organic matter and suspended sediment. If the concentration of algae is high enough (appr. > 10 µg/l), also the occurrence of cyanobacteria can be detected. For deriving these parameters, atmospheric correction and in-water retrieval are most important processing steps. The products derived from satellite data can be aligned with the in-situ measurements acquired within DIWA which provides a complementary view on a water body. In our case we aim in combining high temporal, but punctual in-situ data with the spatial information derived from satellite data. They both contribute to the warning system for exceptional high algal blooms or occurrence of cyanobacteria. In case of river systems, the detection of a bloom that occurs upstream can already help to prepare for measures further downstream. Besides the added value that satellite data provide, limits come with reduced data availability due to cloud coverage and limits in spatial resolution for very small water bodies or very narrow river systems.

Both case studies presented showed a very good applicability of image processing technologies for measuring various hydrological and water quality parameters.

How to cite: Hansen, I., Peña-Haro, S., Luethi, B., Stelzer, K., and König, M.: Hydrological Monitoring of Rivers and Reservoirs Using Innovative Image Processing and Satellite-based Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6948, 2025.

EGU25-9375 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Stereo photogrammetry for river water level and cross-section update: classical and deep learning approaches 

Pedro Alberto Pereira Zamboni, Robert Krüger, and Anette Eltner

Water level information is essential for monitoring and modelling river systems. Traditional, water level monitoring is done using intrusive gauging methods, such as pressure gauges; however, these sensors might be lost during an intense flood. Furthermore, in extreme flood or droughts events, measurements may become insufficient. Camera gauges have gained attention over recent years. These techniques emerge to be a low-cost and remote sensing approach for river monitoring. Camera gauges provide a more flexible and convenient setup, with cameras installed in a safe location. Moreover, they can efficiently monitor a wide range of water level values. Additionally, image sequences can be used to estimate water surface velocity and to eventually measure river discharge. Common camera gauge setups use one camera requiring additional information, e.g., a 3D model of river reach and ground control points (GCPs). On this setup, the water area is extracted from the images, and the water surface contour is reprojected into the 3D model, with the reprojection process being supported by GCPs. However, capturing 3D models can be challenging and is sometimes not possible. Further, due to cross-section change over time, there is a need to update the 3D model to ensure precise measurement. Here, we propose to change the camera gauge paradigm by using two cameras and applying stereo-photogrammetry. Using a traditional stereo-photogrammetry approach, points from two images can be projected into a 3D space, without the need for a 3D model. In this setup, the only required additional information besides the interior camera geometry is the distance between the two cameras, e.g., the baseline. After retrieving the relative camera positions, images can be densely matched to produce high resolution point clouds of the river cross-section.

For stereo-reconstruction, one of the first steps is the matching of key points between the images. Matched points are used to retrieve the relative camera poses (position and orientation). The matching can be done using standard matching algorithms (e.g., SIFT, and SURF). However, these can fail in cases where images have low texture or when they are captured in challenging light conditions. Deep learning has gained attention as an alternative to improving stereo processing. Neural networks for the feature matching achieved state-of-the-art results, being more robust in challenging conditions. Attempts to fully replace the traditional stereo reconstruction have been made (e.g., DUSt3R and MASt3R). These approaches can be used in stereo reconstruction without any prior information; however, they were not yet evaluated for camera gauge applications.

The overall goal of our research is to produce an easy and robust stereo camera gauge setup that to flexibly estimate a 3D model of river cross-sections. Thereby, we can deliver a more robust long-term camera gauge, lowering system deployment costs and maintenance efforts, allowing for a flexible densification of the hydrological monitoring network.

How to cite: Zamboni, P. A. P., Krüger, R., and Eltner, A.: Stereo photogrammetry for river water level and cross-section update: classical and deep learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9375, 2025.

EGU25-9460 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Prediction of Temporal Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in a Lake Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning 

Utku Berkalp Ünalan, Onur Yüzügüllü, and Ayşegül Aksoy

Dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are crucial for aquatic life, especially under climate change, making continuous monitoring essential for effective lake management. However, local measurements are often costly and time-intensive, whether collected through field campaigns or permanent gauges. This study investigates the feasibility of using remote sensing techniques, coupled with machine learning; to track and estimate DO in a shallow eutrophic lake. Because DO cannot be directly measured with optical sensors, we first identify optically sensitive parameters—chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), temperature, and water depth—that correlate statistically with ground-measured DO. A two-step pipeline is then introduced: (1) estimating water level changes, Chl-a, and surface temperature from satellite data, and (2) predicting DO based on these derived parameters.

 

Model development starts with developing three separate models to estimate Chl-a (Sentinel-2), water level changes (Sentinel-1), and lake surface temperature (MODIS), using the Google Earth Engine Python API for data processing and analysis. Subsequently, both remotely sensed parameters and local measurements are used to train a DO prediction model. The training procedure explores 16 machine learning frameworks with hyperparameter tuning, using a 70%–15%–15% time-series split for training, validation, and testing, implemented in scikit-learn and Optuna. Search stopped with the model with R² values of 0.89 and 0.64 and mean absolute errors of 0.81 mg/L and 1.29 mg/L for locally measured and predicted test datasets, respectively. These results highlight the potential of combining remote sensing-derived parameters with machine learning to estimate DO, an otherwise non-optically measurable parameter.

 

This approach offers a cost-effective alternative for modeling continuous temporal variations in DO and supports comprehensive temporal assessments of DO concentrations in shallow eutrophic lakes. Ultimately, this framework shows promise for broader applications and generalizations, thereby contributing to the effective monitoring of non-optical water quality parameters and advancing sustainable aquatic ecosystem management.

How to cite: Ünalan, U. B., Yüzügüllü, O., and Aksoy, A.: Prediction of Temporal Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in a Lake Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9460, 2025.

EGU25-9477 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Using citizens recorded videos to estimate water surface velocity and dischargefor urban flash flood monitoring 

Raffaele Albano, Muhammad Asif, Silvano Dal Sasso, and Aurelia Sole

Flash floods in Mediterranean regions pose significant threats to lives, infrastructures, and economies. Recent episodes of extreme rainfall in one such region led to devastating flash floods, resulting in loss of life, destruction of homes, and widespread disruption of transportation networks. Therefore, there is a critical need for advanced methods to monitor and analyze the flood dynamics, especially in urban areas. This study investigates the use of two advanced image-based techniques, Fudaa-LSPIV (Coz et al., 2014) and SSISM-Flow (Ljubičić et al., 2024) for surface velocity and discharge estimation of urban flash floods. The research used videos or images of historical urban flood events and estimated the surface velocity. To analyze the urban floods, Matera, a city of southern Italy, was selected as case study. Matera was chosen because its historical city center, the “Sassi”, was affected by extreme rainfall events in the last few years, e.g. 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2023. Five extreme past flood events occurred on 3 Aug 2018, 12 Nov 2019, 2 Jun 2023, and 2 & 21 July 2024 were recorded for estimation of surface velocity. Fudaa-LSPIV works according to the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) principles, while SSISM-Flow is a user-friendly and Python-based innovative tool with OpenCV integration for precise surface velocity filed extraction. These methods involve steps such as image stabilization, camera calibration, orthorectifications, and velocity calculation. Both techniques were evaluated based on their accuracy, performance, and application to overcome the limitations of analyzing the surface flow of urban floods. This study is innovative in comparing methods to estimate surface velocity of real-time flash floods in urban areas. Using these techniques, the surface velocities were estimated along key transects, and results were cross-validated using the Float Time method as benchmark. The outcomes of both approaches turned out to be consistent with benchmark data, confirming their reliability in monitoring urban floods. This comprehensive flow analysis provided insights for calibrating flood models and enhanced risk management. This study introduced a novel application of these techniques in real-time urban flood monitoring. Furthermore, it contributes to the development of an early warning system, enhances management strategies, and mitigates flood risks in vulnerable areas.

Reference

Ljubičić, R., et al., 2024.  SSIMS-flow: image velocimetry workbench for open-channel flow rate estimation. Environ. Model. Softw. 173, 105938.

Coz, Jérôme Le, wt al., 2014. Image-Based Velocity and Discharge Measurements in Field and Laboratory River Engineering Studies Using the Free Fudaa-LSPIV Software. In Proc.of the Inter.  Conf. on Fluvial Hydraulics, River Flow, 1961–67.

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of 'Innovation Ecosystems', building 'Territorial R&D Leaders' (Directorial Decree n. 2021/3277) - project Tech4You - Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009. This work reflects only the authors’ views and opinions, neither the Ministry for University and Research nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

How to cite: Albano, R., Asif, M., Dal Sasso, S., and Sole, A.: Using citizens recorded videos to estimate water surface velocity and dischargefor urban flash flood monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9477, 2025.

The growing prevalence of urban floods necessitates the development of cost-effective and scalable monitoring solutions. Traditional water-level sensors are often prohibitively expensive for widespread deployment. Moreover, existing image-based methods frequently encounter limitations in generalizability, particularly the difficulty of harmonizing selected reference features in large-scale quantitative measurements. To address this research gap, we present a novel method that utilizes traffic camera imagery to provide a lightweight solution for quantitatively monitoring urban flood inundation depths with high spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the waterline in flood images is recognized by a neural network and localized using world coordinates calibrated by common road markings, allowing for accurate inundation depth measurement based solely on the imagery. This method eliminates the need for costly point cloud data collection or pre-calibrated measurement objectives in urban settings. Additionally, this method enables the simultaneous collection of waterlogging depths from multiple reference objectives within the same image, yielding more robust measurements. This innovative approach paves the way for cost-effective, high-resolution, and reliable quantitative monitoring of urban flood inundation depths, ultimately providing crucial data support for emergency responses and long-term flood mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Qin, J. and Ping, S.: A Scalable and Lightweight Urban Flood Monitoring Solution Utilizing Only Traffic Camera Images, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10710, 2025.

EGU25-11952 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Development of a low-cost IoT system for monitoring storm drain overflow during urban flooding  

Antonino Cancelliere, Gaetano Buonacera, Nunziarita Palazzolo, Alberto Campisano, Aurora Gullotta, and David J. Peres

Urban flooding, intensified by climate change, presents significant risks to public safety and infrastructure, necessitating effective early warning systems. These events are categorized into fluvial and pluvial flooding, with the latter becoming increasingly challenging to predict due to its localized nature and short lead times.

In this work we develop a novel low-cost device based on Internet of Things (IoT) useful for urban flooding monitoring. The proposed sensor leverages advances in open-source technology, using ESP32 development boards, to create an accessible and cost-effective solution based on ultrasonic and reed-switch mechanisms. The system features innovative design principles, including a 3D-printed structure, low power consumption, and reliable connectivity through LoRaWAN and MQTT protocols used as potential early warning system.

The system’s primary objective is to detect storm drain overflow caused by intense rainfall, triggering timely alerts to mitigate flood impacts. Functional requirements emphasize ease of installation, durability, and cost-effectiveness, enabling widespread adoption in diverse urban contexts. The sensor design incorporates a float mechanism, reed switch, and microcontroller housed in a compact, water-resistant case.

Preliminary testing demonstrated the system's ability to detect water level changes and transmit alerts efficiently. Further work includes refining the design to minimize false positives and enhance system reliability under various environmental conditions. This development represents a significant step toward scalable, low-cost flood monitoring systems, contributing to global efforts in urban flood risk management.

 

How to cite: Cancelliere, A., Buonacera, G., Palazzolo, N., Campisano, A., Gullotta, A., and Peres, D. J.: Development of a low-cost IoT system for monitoring storm drain overflow during urban flooding , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11952, 2025.

EGU25-12047 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Global Framework for Chlorophyll-a Monitoring in Inland Lakes: Integrating Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, and Databases - Achievements and Challenges 

Aung Chit Moe, Khim Cathleen Saddi, Ruodan Zhuang, Domenico Miglino, Jorge Saavedra Navarro, and Salvatore Manfreda

Eutrophication is a significant environmental concern, which is often monitored through Chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentrations in inland and coastal waters. While traditional in-situ measurement methods are accurate, these are time-intensive, labor-demanding, and limited in spatial and temporal resolution. In recent years, remote sensing and machine learning approaches have emerged as promising alternatives for environmental monitoring, although their effectiveness is limited by challenges such as constrained in-situ data availability, the variability of water characteristics, and difficulties in transferring models across regions. Existing global models prioritize data quantity over quality, often lacking in comprehensive analysis of relationships between water quality parameters and remote sensing bands and indices. This study aimed to enhance global Chla prediction accuracy by improving data quality and identifying key predictive features using Earth Observation (EO) data. Two feature groups were examined: Group 1 (reflectance values from single bands and band ratio indices) and Group 2 (reflectance values from single bands combined with mathematical transformations of multiple bands). Machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Least Squares Boosting (LSBoost), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), were assessed for overall performance, cross-validation accuracy, and transferability to external datasets. Among tested models with their own dataset, GPR achieved the highest overall accuracy (R² = 0.95, RMSE = 2.82 µg/L with Group 2 features), while SVR exhibited the weakest performance. For transfer validation using data from external lakes, RF (R² = 0.73, RMSE = 12.39 µg/L) and LSBoost demonstrated the greatest transferability. Spatial-temporal predictions of Chla over 2023–2024 successfully captured seasonal trends by revealing reliable and consistent patterns of Chla distribution. The present study highlights the potential of the proposed framework for global Chla monitoring in inland waters, also, emphasizing the potential in areas outside the training dataset.

Keywords: global chla monitoring, transferability, remote sensing, machine learning

How to cite: Moe, A. C., Saddi, K. C., Zhuang, R., Miglino, D., Saavedra Navarro, J., and Manfreda, S.: Global Framework for Chlorophyll-a Monitoring in Inland Lakes: Integrating Remote Sensing, Machine Learning, and Databases - Achievements and Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12047, 2025.

EGU25-14585 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Bridging Data Gaps in Soil Matric Potential for Enhanced Water Management 

Mohammad Zeynoddin, Silvio José Gumiere, and Hossein Bonakdari

Handling unstructured and missing data (UMD) remains a significant challenge in environmental monitoring and precision agriculture. This study focuses on the imputation of UMD in soil matric potential (SMP) datasets, a critical parameter in assessing soil water availability and managing irrigation systems. Missing data can distort trends, complicate analysis, and hinder decision-making in critical areas such as water management and precision irrigation. Using Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Time Series Models with Exogenous Inputs (TSMX), the research reconstructs missing SMP records by integrating adjacent sensor datasets and explanatory environmental variables. This approach demonstrates the potential of advanced data-driven techniques to enhance the reliability of agricultural and hydrological datasets. The dataset encompasses hourly SMP measurements and explanatory variables, including meteorological inputs such as relative humidity, air temperature, and soil properties, collected across multiple sensors in a precision agriculture setup. Exploratory analysis revealed variations in data structure, including non-stationary trends and significant statistical differences between training and testing datasets. These insights guided the selection of inputs and model configurations, emphasizing the importance of autocorrelation analysis in determining the most significant predictors. The ELM model exhibited superior performance in imputing missing SMP values, achieving an R-value of 0.992, RMSE of 0.164 cm, and NSE of 0.983 using five key inputs. This robustness highlights ELM's capability to generalize across diverse input combinations effectively. Additionally, TSMX has also been explored for its potential to leverage temporal dependencies and explanatory variables for consistent imputation. The incorporation of adjacent sensor data in modeling efforts underscores the importance of spatial and temporal relationships in enhancing accuracy, particularly in heterogeneous environmental conditions. This research underscores the critical role of input selection and model tuning in addressing UMD in SMP datasets. The findings demonstrate the complementary strengths of ELM and TSMX, offering practical insights for improving data reliability in precision irrigation and environmental monitoring. Future studies could explore integrating additional explanatory variables and employing advanced machine learning architectures to optimize imputation performance under varying environmental conditions further.

Keywords: Missing Data Imputation; Soil Matric Potential; Extreme Learning Machine; Time Series Models; Exogenous Inputs; Precision Agriculture; Environmental Monitoring.

How to cite: Zeynoddin, M., Gumiere, S. J., and Bonakdari, H.: Bridging Data Gaps in Soil Matric Potential for Enhanced Water Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14585, 2025.

EGU25-16334 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Hydrological monitoring in small catchments: the MagicHydroBox 

Simone Noto, Nicola Durighetto, Flavia Tauro, Ciro Apollonio, Andrea Petroselli, and Salvatore Grimaldi

The monitoring of small headwater catchment represents a major issue in hydrology, especially in remote areas, where gathering real-time hydrological data is often prohibitive due to the limited availability of power and connectivity. However, recent advances in non-contact computer vision and informatic technology offer an opportunity to fill such technical gap. In this regard, we designed and developed the MagicHydroBox prototype (MHB), and all-in-one camera and processing unit system aimed at monitoring the water level in small headwater rivers. The tasks performed by MHB include image collection, image processing, storage and transmission of the processed data. Since the MHB is equipped with NIR (NearInfrared) leds and camera, the image collection can be carried out both during the day and the night period. The image processing takes place directly in the MHB, to guarantee the onsite analysis, it is based on the Otsu’s segmentation method to identify a properly placed target within the images, and results in the direct estimation of water depth. Finally, we built in the MHB the possibility to transmit the processed data both through Gprs (mobile data) and LoRaWan (a long-range, low-power system). The MHB is also equipped with a GUI that allows the user to set and calibrate the instrument. We carried out preliminary field tests to evaluate the effectiveness of the MHB in providing an accurate measure of the target and transmitting the processed data. The preliminary results highlight the potential of the MHB to estimate the water level, especially in NIR images, and to provide a real-time hydrological monitoring where Internet signal is available. The main innovation of the MHB is represented by the fact that it automated a series of tasks that were instead manually performed in previous works. The concentration of all the necessary tasks within the MHB simplify the data acquisition, the processing and the management providing an useful tool where frequent maintenance or monitoring surveys are not possible. Moreover, the MHB is promising for future implementation of algorithms to measure surface velocimetry and discharge.

How to cite: Noto, S., Durighetto, N., Tauro, F., Apollonio, C., Petroselli, A., and Grimaldi, S.: Hydrological monitoring in small catchments: the MagicHydroBox, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16334, 2025.

Flow velocity and water surface elevation (WSE) are fundamental for understanding hydraulic phenomena in river engineering. Although underwater flow properties are not directly observable, these two parameters encapsulate the hydraulic properties governing river flow, as described by the conservation of mass and momentum equations. This information enables the understanding of actual hydraulics and facilitates the creation of digital twins, even during large scale flood events.

To measure flow velocity from UAV imagery, we developed a novel, reference-free image analysis method based on image conversion. This method eliminates the need for physical reference points, addressing practical challenges in field deployments. It leverages readily available camera information, including position (x, y, z) and orientation (pitch, roll, yaw). Complementary WSE data, obtainable from various sources, completes the required input. This allows accurate conversion of video pixel data to surface coordinates, enabling velocity measurements at any point within the river flow. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is then applied to the converted images to derive the velocity field.

For WSE determination, we explored three approaches: Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), Structure from Motion (SfM), and edge-based downscaling of SfM. LiDAR data, while valuable and easy to observing, exhibits lower point density on the water surface compared to the surrounding non-water areas, depending on water surface conditions. However, even sparse LiDAR data in the mid-channel provides crucial hydraulic information. For SfM, we employed multiple UAVs capturing images at appropriate timing to resolve temporal WSE changes. As a downscaling approach using a single UAV, WSE data extracted solely from the riverbank can also be utilized.

We have begun accumulating observations of large-scale flow phenomena. Our results reveal cellular secondary currents and flow patterns over bedforms. Observations of cellular secondary currents show boiling-type phenomena occurring on the order of seconds, and more persistent cellular structures when averaging the flow field over one minute. From an engineering perspective, although these events are infrequent, they can significantly impact float-based discharge measurements when they occur. Observations of flow over bedforms show spatial variations in velocity and WSE along the flow direction, exhibiting wave-like patterns. The out-of-phase relationship between these wave patterns suggests they are associated with micro-bedforms, indicating active sediment transport. Furthermore, this understanding of sediment hydraulics can be used to estimate water depth.

How to cite: yorozuya, A. and kudo, S.: Flow structures in actual rivers obtained by areal measurement of flow velocity and water surface elevation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16904, 2025.

EGU25-17076 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Transforming water resources management at river basin scale with digital twin technology 

Amir Rouhani, Ainhoa Mate Marin, Antonio Moya Diez, J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández, Michael Rode, and Seifeddine Jomaa

Digital twin, as a virtual representation of physical systems, is increasingly recognised as a core component of timely and accurate water management, particularly for interconnected and rapidly changing systems. Digital twin supports the simultaneous monitoring, simulation, and optimisation of real-world operations by integrating multiple data sources, including in-situ measurements, remote sensing and modelling data. By enabling a detailed characterisation of catchment functioning and its ecological boundary conditions, a digital twin facilitates equitable water allocation across sectors and supports timely and evidence-based decision-making.

Developing a digital twin requires extensive datasets, robust scientific evidence, and a clear grasp of ecological boundaries, reflecting the interconnected nature of multi-sectoral decision-making. The Bode River Basin, one of the best-monitored catchments in central Europe, serves as a showcase for designing and implementing a digital twin system for multi-sectoral and sustainable water management at catchment scale. The recent prolonged droughts (2017–2021) and their impacts on various water bodies offer a real-world “experiment” of extreme climate scenarios, highlighting the vulnerabilities and risks within the catchment and illustrating the complex trade-offs inherent in water resource management.

This study integrates long-term, high-resolution monitoring strategies with coupled surface water, groundwater, and water quality models into a unified framework that addresses both quantitative and qualitative aspects of water systems. Such a comprehensive approach enables forecasting climate change impacts and optimising water resource allocation across sectors. Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of digital twins to advance sustainable water resource management under changing climatic conditions.

Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.

How to cite: Rouhani, A., Mate Marin, A., Moya Diez, A., Gómez-Hernández, J. J., Rode, M., and Jomaa, S.: Transforming water resources management at river basin scale with digital twin technology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17076, 2025.

EGU25-17492 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

The Role of Riverbed Background Reflectance in Long Term Turbidity Monitoring Using Camera Systems 

Domenico Miglino, Seifeddine Jomaa, Khim Cathleen Saddi, Aung Chit Moe, Michael Rode, and Salvatore Manfreda

The use of digital cameras in river monitoring activities can increase our knowledge of water quality status, solving the cost and spatial and temporal data resolution limitations of the existing techniques. The challenge of image-based procedures using camera systems is the proper red, green, and blue (RGB) bands signal interpretation and processing. The actual water upwelling light that reaches the camera lens is the sum of various reflectance components of the suspended particles, the riverbed background and the water itself. One component could prevail over the others, depending on the variability of hydrological (water level, flow velocity, etc.) and environmental (suspended solids concentration, floating pollutants, etc.) characteristics of the river. The effect of water level and turbidity concentration on the riverbed component of the total water upwelling light can be substantial, especially for shallow water. As a result, the riverbed reflectance component, if neglected, can significantly affect the evaluation of the water reflectance, and hence, water turbidity.

In our field campaign, a synthetic turbidity event was recreated by adding a natural clay tracer into the river, and we monitored it using a camera system. Two turbidimeters were installed within the river section to validate the results. Moreover, a submerged panel was fixed directly on the riverbed. This choice was prompted by the shallow water conditions during the experiment, where the riverbed reflectance significantly contributed to the total upwelling light captured by the camera, particularly under low turbidity levels. We defined a clear water condition in which the panel was fully visible, where turbidity level was considered equal to zero. As turbidity increased and the panel visibility decreased, we applied an image-based procedure to assess the actual river turbidity level. In addition, we applied a pixel-by-pixel mean of the camera frames every 2 minutes, for minimizing the signal distortions due to the effect of ripples, sun glare and shadows within the analyzed region of interest of the river surface.  These methodological steps allowed us to properly decompose the image into different reflectance components, and to enhance long-term monitoring practices that are subject to a wide range of environmental and hydrological variability.

This study focuses on implementing camera systems in real-world settings, supporting existing river monitoring techniques with early warning networks, and developing innovative solutions for water resource management.


Keywords: camera system, river monitoring, turbidity, image processing, remote sensing, water quality

How to cite: Miglino, D., Jomaa, S., Saddi, K. C., Moe, A. C., Rode, M., and Manfreda, S.: The Role of Riverbed Background Reflectance in Long Term Turbidity Monitoring Using Camera Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17492, 2025.

EGU25-18462 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Optimizing Image-Based Techniques for River Monitoring: Insights into Graphical Enhancement and Parameter Sensitivity 

Francesco Alongi, Robert Robert Ljubičić, Dario Pumo, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, and Leonardo Valerio Noto

Image-based techniques have gained significant attention for monitoring natural and artificial rivers, thanks to their many advantages over traditional methods. These non-intrusive and highly-versatile optical approaches provide accurate flow discharge measurements, even in challenging conditions like flood events, while ensuring the safety of both operators and equipment. However, the accuracy of optical measurements is affected by several factors, including environmental conditions, river flow characteristics, field acquisition protocols, and the parameterization of the processing software.

Image-based techniques follow a three-phase workflow: (i) seeding, (ii) recording, and (iii) processing. Seeding introduces natural or artificial tracers onto the water surface to detect motion. Recording captures video sequences from stationary or mobile platforms (e.g., UASs – Unmanned Aerial Systems). Processing extracts the surface velocity field and flow metrics. The latter phase is divided into three sub-steps: pre-processing, surface velocity evaluation, and post-processing. Pre-processing includes stabilization, orthorectification, and graphical enhancement; surface velocity evaluation uses correlation-based or similar algorithms to track tracers across frames; finally, post-processing refines velocity data by filtering noise, interpolating missing data, and extracting relevant metrics.

Among the steps of optical techniques, graphical enhancement is particularly critical. By increasing the contrast between tracers and the background, it enhances the ability of software algorithms to accurately track motion, thereby reducing errors. However, an inadequate parametric setup of the processing software can also result in the estimation of biased velocities. To investigate these interdependencies, this study conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, evaluating the combined effects of graphical enhancement techniques and processing parameters on the performance of image-based analyses. The analysis compares traditional algorithms with more innovative approaches, including colorspace transformation, and assesses the impact of varying processing parameters under different operational conditions. A dataset of videos acquired from UAS platforms and fixed stations during discharge measurement campaigns on Sicilian rivers, in Italy, was used. The videos were analyzed using PIVlab and SSIMS-Flow software, and the results were benchmarked against ADCP measurements.

The findings reveal that both the choice of graphical enhancement methods and the optimization of key software parameters significantly affect the accuracy of velocity and discharge estimates. The study also provides valuable insights into selecting the most appropriate enhancement techniques and configuring processing parameters, tailored to specific field conditions and operational requirements, further demonstrating the potential of image-based methods for hydraulic monitoring.

How to cite: Alongi, F., Robert Ljubičić, R., Pumo, D., Dal Sasso, S. F., and Noto, L. V.: Optimizing Image-Based Techniques for River Monitoring: Insights into Graphical Enhancement and Parameter Sensitivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18462, 2025.

EGU25-18603 | ECS | PICO | HS1.2.1

Evaluating the Potential of Personal Weather Stations (PWS) for Semi-distributed Hydrological Modelling  

Ranka Kovačević, Andrijana Todorović, Carlo De Michele, Roberto Nebuloni, and Alessandro Ceppi
 

Personal Weather Stations (PWS) have gained attention in recent years as a potential complement to operational meteorological networks, which are often sparse and may not adequately capture localized rain events, especially in areas with complex orography. PWS, on the other hand, can improve the spatial resolution of rainfall data due to their affordability and, thus, widespread distribution. However, their effectiveness and reliability depend on overcoming certain challenges. PWS often lack adherence to World Meteorological Organization standards, as they may not be properly placed nor regularly maintained, and there are no standardised approaches for data quality check. Frequent gaps in the series (mainly due to data transmission issues), and a constantly changing network layout further limit reliability and consistency of PWS data for hydrological modelling. Therefore, the application of PWS rain data for hydrological modelling is still in its infancy.  

This research focuses on evaluating PWS rainfall data for hydrological modelling in the peri-urban Lambro catchment in northern Italy, by comparing characteristics of hourly rainfall data obtained from the MeteoNetwork (Giazzi et al., 2022; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060928, 2022) to those of the rain gauge data obtained from the  Regional Agency for the Protection of the Environment of Lombardy (ARPA). This study focuses on the characteristics of the subcatchment-averaged rainfall series are compared. The rain depths in each of the 15 subcatchments are calculated by using the inverse-distance weighting method with the power of 2, and with increasing maximum distance between the station and the centroid of a subcatchment (10km, 25km and 50km). The two subcatchment-averaged rainfall series are compared in terms of (1) accumulated rain depth, (2) maximum rainfall intensity, and (3) timing of the peak rainfall intensity during a rain event. 

Our results indicate that, compared to ARPA rainfall data, PWS data can both underestimate and overestimate rainfall values with similar frequency. Specifically, the magnitude of error in rain depths ranges from -44% to +56% across the subcatchments, and this range does not change significantly with increasing maximum distance. With the maximum distance of 10 km, in eight out of 15 subcatchments the absolute value of the error is smaller than 15%, while the median value amounts to 1.9%, and decreases to -17% and -19% with increasing maximum distance. The errors in maximum rainfall intensity are slightly larger, ranging from -67% to 76%, when compared to the official ARPA gauges with the maximum distance of 10 km. The median error amounts to 15.5%, -26% and -30% for the three maximum distance values. Concerning the timing of peak intensity, there are no discrepancies between the two datasets, and PWS data can be considered accurate in this regard. However, large errors in rain depths and intensities suggest that PWS rain data alone cannot be expected to yield accurate outputs in hydrological simulations. This conclusion will be tested by running a hydrological model with these datasets.  

 

Acknowledgement  

This research is part of the work within the COST Action “Opportunistic Precipitation Sensing Network” (OpenSense, CA20136)

How to cite: Kovačević, R., Todorović, A., De Michele, C., Nebuloni, R., and Ceppi, A.: Evaluating the Potential of Personal Weather Stations (PWS) for Semi-distributed Hydrological Modelling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18603, 2025.

EGU25-19738 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Impact of intense rainfall event on the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of an urban stream 

Sándor Kun, Imre Boczonádi, Péter Tamás Nagy, Andrea Szabó, Florence Alexandra Tóth, Zsolt Zoltán Fehér, Tamás Magyar, Lili Adrienn Madar, István Szűcs, János Tamás, and Attila Nagy

Extreme weather events, including sudden and intense rainfall, have become increasingly frequent due to the growing impact of climate change. This rapid influx of water often carries a variety of pollutants, including nutrients, heavy metals, and microbial contaminants, significantly modifying the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of urban streams. This study aims to evaluate the effects of rainfall events on the physicochemical and microbiological properties of the Tócó Stream, focusing on changes in key water quality parameters and microbial dynamics. Two sampling points were selected to represent different environmental areas: one site was located in a near-natural area, and the other was situated in an industrial zone, surrounded by facilities and a highway connecting road. Measurements were conducted both before and after the rainfall event. On-site measurements were performed included precipitation (mm), water level, dissolved oxygen content, and water temperature, while water samples were collected for laboratory analysis. The collected samples were tested for pH and electrical conductivity (EC) as well as for nutrient-concentrations of NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻, NO₃⁻, PO₄³⁻, K⁺, SO₄²⁻, chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen demand (BOD5) were also determined from the samples. In case of microbiological parameters, total coliforms, yeasts, and total plate count were determined. Our results revealed differences between the two sampling sites and the pre- and post-rainfall conditions. At the industrial site the nutrient contents have decreased due to the rainfall, while at the near natural site we did not determine such change in connection with these elements. The same trend were detected in the case of EC as well. The microbiological analysis of the water samples clearly showed that while both total bacterial count and total coliform count showed an increasing trend after the rainfall at the first site, this trend was much less pronounced at the site reflecting the natural state. Our objecitve was to study the influence of sudden rainfall events, for the reason that these effects remain understudied, particularly in terms of their short- and long-term impacts on water quality and microbial properties.

The research presented in the article was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.

 

How to cite: Kun, S., Boczonádi, I., Nagy, P. T., Szabó, A., Tóth, F. A., Fehér, Z. Z., Magyar, T., Madar, L. A., Szűcs, I., Tamás, J., and Nagy, A.: Impact of intense rainfall event on the physicochemical and microbiological characteristics of an urban stream, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19738, 2025.

Discharge estimation at a river site depends on local hydraulic conditions identified by recording water levels. In fact, stage monitoring is straightforward and relatively inexpensive compared with the cost necessary to carry out flow velocity measurements which are, however, limited to low flows and constrained by the accessibility of the site. In this context, the mean flow velocity is hard to estimate for high flow, affecting de-facto the reliability of discharge assessment for extreme events. On the other hand, the surface flow velocity can be easily monitored by using radar sensors allowing to achieve a good estimate of discharge by exploiting the entropy theory applied to rivers hydraulic (Chiu,1987). The growing interest towards the use of no-contact methods to estimate discharge (Tauro et al., 2018) in field applications has shown that the cross-track velocity distribution can be inferred with sufficient accuracy using the surface velocities, usurf, sampled using Surface Velocity Radars (SVR) (Fulton and Ostrowski, 2008; Moramarco et al., 2017, Alimenti et al. 2020), the quantitative imaging techniques as LSPIV (Fujita et al., 1998) or PTV (Tauro et al., 2019). In this context, overall the velocity-area method is applied to estimate the mean flow velocity starting from the depth-averaged velocity, uvert, which is inferred through the velocity index, k=uvert/usurf.. For many river gage sites configurations, k has been set to 0.85. However, considering k refers to a monotonous velocity profile, not taking account of dip phenomena, the application may fail in estimating the depth-averaged velocity (Moramarco et al., 2017; Koussis et al., 2022, Pumo et al., 2025). Based on that, this work proposes a new entropy-based approach to estimate the depth-averaged velocity starting from the measured surface velocity retrieved by conventional and/or no-contact measurements. The approach exploits the dependence of the entropy parameter M with the hydraulic and geometric characteristics of channel (Moramarco and Dingmann, 2017), allowing to derive formulations on Manning’s roughness, shear velocity and water surface slope. Based on these features, the entropy-based method by using the measured surface velocity and the geometry of the river site is able to turn usurf  into uvert considering for each  usurf  an index which depends on the local water surface slope. The application to river sites along the Tiber River, Po River and Amazon River has shown the effectiveness of the approach in estimating the depth-averaged velocities with a fair accuracy along all verticals. Therefore, the method well lends itself to be integrated in the field of no-contact streamflow measurements.

 

 

How to cite: Moramarco, T.: Entropy-based depth-averaged velocity assessment from surface flow velocity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19742, 2025.

EGU25-20109 | PICO | HS1.2.1

Long-Term Evolution and Challenges of Hydrological Observations at the Fiumarella Basin in Southern Italy 

Htay Htay Aung, Beniamino Onorati, Mauro Fiorentino, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Biagio Sileo, Teresa Pizzolla, Salvatore Manfreda, and Maria Rosaria Margiotta

Hydrological observations are essential for understanding the complex interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, improving water resource management, strengthening flood defense, and advancing hydrological modeling. However, the long-term maintenance of experimental basins like Fiumarella di Corleto presents significant challenges, requiring continuous updates to address environmental changes and technological advancements. This study reviews over 20 years of observations at the Fiumarella basin in Southern Italy, focusing on its evolution, challenges, and future directions. The Fiumarella basin, covering an area of 32.5 km², includes a sub-basin of 0.65 km². Since 2002, a hydrometeorological network has been monitoring key variables such as rainfall, temperature, wind, and streamflow, capturing hydrological variability across spatial and temporal scales. In 2006, 22 soil moisture probes were installed along a 60-meter transect at depths of 30 and 60 cm. Additionally, high-resolution LiDAR data and pedological studies have enhanced the understanding of the basin’s morphology and soil characteristics. The maintenance of this experimental basin has posed substantial challenges. Frequent extreme flood events have resulted in significant damage to hydrometric stations, requiring reconstruction and recalibration. Moreover, the sediment and debris accumulation in the retention basin of the sub-basin necessitated periodic clearing to maintain functionality and ensure continuous data collection. These challenges underscore the effort and adaptability required to sustain long-term monitoring in dynamic environments. Data collected from the basin have significantly contributed to hydrological science. Analyses of peak flow events and antecedent soil moisture conditions have provided insights into flood response mechanisms. Spatial and temporal variability in hydrological processes has informed the calibration and validation of semi-distributed hydrological models, enhancing their accuracy and reliability. These findings highlight the importance of integrating diverse datasets such as soil moisture, precipitation, topography, and land use—for comprehensive hydrological research. Looking ahead, planned upgrades aim to further enhance the basin’s capabilities. The installation of a meteorological radar would improve rainfall measurement precision and expand spatial coverage, thereby addressing existing data gaps. Additional hydrometric sensors and automated systems would increase the granularity and reliability of observations, supporting high-resolution analyses. These advancements will ensure that the Fiumarella basin remains a state-of-the-art research facility capable of addressing emerging challenges in hydrology and climate science.

This abstract is part of the project NODES which has received funding from the MUR-M4C2 1.5 of PNRR funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU (Grant agreement no. ECS00000036).

The present research has been carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan -NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 - D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

 

How to cite: Aung, H. H., Onorati, B., Fiorentino, M., Dal Sasso, S. F., Sileo, B., Pizzolla, T., Manfreda, S., and Margiotta, M. R.: Long-Term Evolution and Challenges of Hydrological Observations at the Fiumarella Basin in Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20109, 2025.

EGU25-3546 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

Innovative Lagrangian Radiosonde Clusters for ABL Observations 

Shahbozbek Abdunabiev, Niccolo' Gallino, and Daniela Tordella

We present a novel method to track fluctuations in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using a cluster of mini-radiosondes. Each radiosonde is lightweight, expendable and carried by biodegradable balloons. This system collects statistics of turbulence fluctuations in the ABL and warm clouds within it. The first operational prototype of the radiosonde cluster developed at POLITO was tested in several field campaigns from November 2022 to September 2024. These campaigns, which included six cluster launch experiments, were conducted in collaboration with CNR-INRIM, MET-OFFICE, NCAS, ARPA Piemonte, ARPA-FVG, and OAvdA (see Fig. 1). The system provides critical insights for modeling ABL dynamics and dispersion, a major source of uncertainty in climate and meteorological simulations [1].

Figure 1: In-field experiments with the radiosonde cluster network. LoRa P2P radio transmission, 12 km range, 868 MHz, 0.2 Hz data acquisition frequency. Left: radiosonde trajectories. Middle: vertical profiles of temperature and mean Brunt-Vaisala frequency from 3 radiosondes. The purple color indicates positive temperature gradients, while green indicates negative ones. Right: wind speed, magnetic field, and acceleration fluctuation spectra. A) Alpine environment, St. Barthelemy, Aosta, Italy, November 2023. B) Rural near-maritime Atlantic coast, Chilbolton, UK, July 2023, WESCON campaign. C) Subalpine region, Udine, Italy, June 2024. D) Rural near-maritime Atlantic coast, Chilbolton, UK, September 2024. Ground-level wind speeds: A: 1 m/s, B: 17 m/s, C: 0.5 m/s, D: 10 m/s.

Each radiosonde is a radioprobe board [1, 2] mounted on a biodegradable balloon [3] filled with a helium-air mixture, allowing a float time of several hours. It measures air temperature, pressure, humidity, and four vector quantities (position, velocity, acceleration, and Earth's magnetic field) along each trajectory (Fig. 1). Passive tracking of multiphase cloud parcels provides a multi-point view of flow structures. Recent experiments have explored turbulent dispersion analysis using a distance neighbor graph algorithm [4], addressing aspects of atmospheric turbulence not previously measured in field observations. The system can advance models for cloud microphysics and turbulence schemes for atmospheric tracer dispersion [5]. Our methodology uses high-frequency atmospheric data and improves understanding of turbulence. This enables advances in cloud modeling, weather prediction, and climate simulation. The biodegradable balloon has a volume of ~40 liters and weighs ~18 grams. Optimizing the size and weight of the circuit board (halving both dimensions) will reduce the balloon volume by 30%, allowing for simultaneous deployment of swarms of ~100 mini-radiosondes. The future radioprobe will have sensors for VOCs, greenhouse gases, and UV radiation integrated into the PCB to expand its use cases. An energy harvesting module will extend the lifetime of the probe.

1. Abdunabiev S. et al., Measurement 224, 113879 (2024)

2. Paredes et al., Sensors 21, 1351 (2021)

3. Basso et al., Mat. Chem. Phys. 253, 123411 (2020)

4. Richardson, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 110, 709 (1926)

5. Mirza et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 150, 761 (2024)

How to cite: Abdunabiev, S., Gallino, N., and Tordella, D.: Innovative Lagrangian Radiosonde Clusters for ABL Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3546, 2025.

EGU25-3756 | Posters on site | HS1.2.2 | Highlight

Sampling spores and microorganisms in the stratosphere 

Jérôme Kasparian, Sara Leoni, Océane Devisme, Maxime Hervo, Gonzague Romanens, and Katia Gindro

Spores are the survival and dissemination units of fungi. Many are designed for optimal airborne dispersal while maintaining long-term survival. Depending on the chemical and structural nature of their walls, they are highly resistant to extreme temperatures and UV radiation. For example, Botrytis cinerea conidia stored dry at -80°C are still able to germinate after more than 20 years in storage. Given their anemochorous nature and resistance to abiotic factors, it would therefore be possible for spores of pathogenic fungi to be aeroported through the stratosphere. However, little is known about the spread of pathogenic fungi in high-altitude airspace.

 

In order to investigate the presence of fungal spores in the stratosphere and explore the diversity of viable and non-cultivable fungi, we designed a low-cost sampling device capable of sampling particles in the stratosphere. It consists in a sealed polystyrene box with two ports on the top and bottom sides, allowing air circulation. A rotating arm sampler spins in the resulting airflow, with four sticks coated with petroleum jelly. The opening of the ports is controlled by mobile covers driven by servomotors, managed by an Arduino Uno microcontroller connected to a high-pressure pressure sensor. Moreover, an on-board radiosonde continuously transmits GPS position, relative humidity, and temperature data. An internal camera captures the opening, closing, and sampling processes during the desired altitude segment. Additionally, a control box, that never opens during flight,  monitors potential contamination below the stratosphere.

 

Both the measurement and control boxes are sterilized under UV-C, sealed and attached to a meteorologic radiosonding balloon. Upon reaching an altitude of 12,000 meters, the covers open, and airborne particles are collected. Once the balloon bursts (at around 35,000 m; -63°C), a parachute deploys during the descent, and the cover closes at 12,000 meters.  The prompt recovery of the sample at landing is assisted by a specifically dedicated mobile app, that extrapolates the descent trajectory and guides the crew to the expected landing location.

 

Five test flights between October 2023 and June 2024 up to 35,000 meters altitude, allowed us to optimize and validate the device, the sampling conditions, and the sample recovery procedures and analysis. The collected samples were both cultured on fungal medium and prepared for deep DNA sequencing. The control box remained sterile, confirming the absence of contamination. Furthermore, several species of cultivable fungi were identified in the sample, demonstrating the viability of spores despite low pressure and temperature, while the DNA sequencing revealed the presence of many species, including exotic ones.

 

This setup opens the way to routine monitoring of stratospheric airborne fungi spores and other biological aerosols, in view of a better understanding of their dispersal and survival.

How to cite: Kasparian, J., Leoni, S., Devisme, O., Hervo, M., Romanens, G., and Gindro, K.: Sampling spores and microorganisms in the stratosphere, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3756, 2025.

EGU25-12080 | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

Cryoegg, Cryowurst and Hydrobean: wireless instruments for glaciology and hydrology 

Michael Prior-Jones, Hawkins Jonathan, Lisa Craw, Elizabeth A Bagshaw, Christine F Dow, Allan Mason-Jones, Hashem Alnader, Elena von Benzon, Luke Copland, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Brittany Main, Josh James, Stephen Livingstone, Sarah Mann, Matthew Peacey, Rupert Perkins, and Sophia M Rahn

Observations of conditions within and beneath the ice of glaciers and ice sheets are required to better constrain models of glacier dynamics and provide more reliable forecasts of how ice responds to a changing climate. We have developed and deployed two wireless instruments intended to provide long-term observations of englacial and subglacial environments.  A third instrument has been developed for use in streams and rivers – this may be used in either glacial or temperate environments.

Cryoegg is a spherical instrument deployed in subglacial channels via boreholes, or in moulins. It measures temperature, water pressure and electrical conductivity and provides data live by radio link through the ice to a receiver on the surface. The spherical shape allows it to travel within water channels and report on conditions within the hydrological system. We demonstrate how it has provided 5 months of data from within a glacier moulin in west Greenland, and that the radio link can operate through 2,500m of ice in north-east Greenland.

Cryowurst is a cylindrical instrument deployed in a borehole and measures both subglacial hydrological parameters (water pressure, temperature and electrical conductivity) but also its tilt and orientation change as the ice moves. It also reports wirelessly to a datalogger on the glacier surface. It has provided 5 months of data during a deployment in Yukon, Canada.

Hydrobean is an instrument intended for citizen scientists studying streams and small rivers in temporate regions. It shares some common technology with the two cryospheric instruments. Hydrobean consists of a hemispherical unit deployed on the river bed, which sends data by radio link to a data logger on the bank. It measures water pressure, water temperature and electrical conductivity and is intended to help identify pollution events (which may raise both the temperature and electrical conductivity of the water). Hydrobean has been tested in the River Usk in Wales and the river Dart in south-west England. We also intend to deploy Hydrobean in supraglacial streams during future glaciological fieldwork.

The data loggers which receive the data from all three wireless instruments store the data locally but can also forward data to a web portal using cellular or satellite links. This has allowed us to closely monitor and retrieve data in close to real time and reduces the risk of data loss from equipment damage in a harsh environment.

How to cite: Prior-Jones, M., Jonathan, H., Craw, L., Bagshaw, E. A., Dow, C. F., Mason-Jones, A., Alnader, H., von Benzon, E., Copland, L., Dahl-Jensen, D., Main, B., James, J., Livingstone, S., Mann, S., Peacey, M., Perkins, R., and Rahn, S. M.: Cryoegg, Cryowurst and Hydrobean: wireless instruments for glaciology and hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12080, 2025.

EGU25-13702 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

SPYCE: A Multi-Modal Rodent Monitoring Device for Enhanced Detection, Monitoring, and Behavior Analysis 

Chirag Padubidri, Ioannis Louloudakis, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Sukru Esin, and Andreas Kamilaris

Rodents pose a significant threat to agriculture, causing extensive damage to crops, infrastructure, and ecosystem health. This pressing issue necessitates innovative, sustainable management solutions. SPYCE, a rodent-monitoring device (RMD), is designed to provide a flexible, adaptable solution for rodent detection, monitoring, and behavior-analysis. Developed as part of the MED4PEST project, which focuses on advancing ecologically based rodent management by reducing reliance on synthetic pest-control methods and promoting sustainable, eco-friendly farming systems tailored to the Mediterranean-region. SPYCE’s modular, customizable configuration allows users to select sensors based on operational requirements and budget constraints, emphasizing open accessibility, tailored functionality, and cost-effective deployment.


SPYCE is a T-shaped device designed for flexible deployment at greenhouse entry points and fenced agricultural fields. Its design allows rodents to enter and exit freely, facilitating precise monitoring. The T-joint structure includes a horizontal base pipe equipped with PIR sensors at each entrance to detect movement. A housing at the top of the vertical pipe contains critical sensors such as an ultrasonic sensor, ultrasonic microphone, and infrared camera oriented downward toward the T-joint, all integrated with a Raspberry-Pi. A mmWave-radar sensor monitors external movement signatures. A temperature-humidity sensor collects environmental data, while a protective top cover shields the electronics from dust and water.

The system firmware, developed in Python, supports three operational modes for various monitoring needs. In Mode-1, PIR sensors at the entrances activate the system, which waits for ultrasonic-sensor confirmation to initiate data collection. In Mode-2, the ultrasonic sensor detects motion at the central joint, directly triggering data acquisition. In Mode-3, the infrared camera operates continuously, detecting motion through background changes and activating other sensors when a rodent is detected. Across all modes, temperature-humidity data are recorded at regular intervals. Additionally, separate code records movement signatures using the mmWave radar. SPYCE’s modular design adapts to diverse operational requirements while maintaining accuracy and reliability in data collection. Furthermore, SPYCE is open-source, with hardware designs, scripts, and implementation details available on GitHub (https://github.com/superworld-cyens/MED4PEST), enabling researchers and practitioners to replicate and customize SPYCE for rodent monitoring.

SPYCE is currently deployed at pilot sites in Greece and Turkey, actively collecting rodent-activity data. This data will serve as the foundation for developing a multi-modal deep-learning model capable of detecting, counting, and analyzing rodent behavior with high precision. Additionally, multi-modal anomaly-detection techniques will investigate behavioral changes in rodents under EBRM and non-EBRM conditions, providing valuable insights. These pilot deployments will validate SPYCE’s potential as an effective tool for assessing EBRM strategies. This work can also extend to broader rodent-management applications, including population estimation, behavioral analysis, and ecological monitoring.

Funding: This work is part of MED4PEST, funded under the PRIMA Programme, an Art.185 initiative co-funded by Horizon-2020, the EU’s Research and Innovation Programme. Additional funding was provided by the General Secretariat for Research and Innovation, Greece; the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey; the EU Horizon-2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant No. 739578); and the Government of the Republic of Cyprus through the Directorate General for European Programmes, Coordination, and Development.

How to cite: Padubidri, C., Louloudakis, I., Daliakopoulos, I., Esin, S., and Kamilaris, A.: SPYCE: A Multi-Modal Rodent Monitoring Device for Enhanced Detection, Monitoring, and Behavior Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13702, 2025.

EGU25-14559 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

The Open Digital Environmental Lab 

Elad Levintal, Elyasaf Freiman, Thi Thuc Nguyen, Devi Orozco, Tom Norman, Robel Kahsu, and Ariel Altman

The development of new affordable sensors, and the ability to log high-resolution data for long periods of time can potentially revolutionize environmental sciences. Collecting high-resolution spatiotemporal data requires sensor grids that are often costly and not necessarily modular enough to fit a specific experimental objective. These are limiting factors that can be solved using open-source hardware. In our Open Digital Environmental Lab, we develop and integrate complex sensor arrays into our research that simultaneously measure multiple parameters, such as water content and CO2  and O2  concentrations. We rely on integrating IoT (Internet of Things) concepts and aim to meet not only our current research goals, but also to enable new capabilities at a fraction of traditional sensor costs but with similar accuracy. Our vision is that open-source sensors will: (1) “Democratize science” by reducing cost limitations, and (2) Be game-changers for measuring environmental parameters with the ability to capture process-related heterogeneity. At the conference, we will present various projects, ranging from lab-oriented devices to field networks for real-time monitoring of soil and river parameters that allow new modeling and mechanistic understandings.

How to cite: Levintal, E., Freiman, E., Nguyen, T. T., Orozco, D., Norman, T., Kahsu, R., and Altman, A.: The Open Digital Environmental Lab, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14559, 2025.

EGU25-18431 | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

Open Hardware in the UK Floods and Droughts Research Infrastructure (FDRI) 

Wouter Buytaert, Alejandro Dussaillant, and Will Veness

The UK Floods and Droughts Research Infrastructure (FDRI) is a £38 million investment from the UK Government to support transformative research and applications on flood and drought resilience. The infrastructure will consist of a combination of in-situ monitoring infrastructure, an overarching digital infrastructure to support telemetry, analytics, and data integration, and an extensive portfolio of capacity development, training and community building activities.

FDRI aims to be a state-of-the-art infrastructure that supports transformative research. This means that innovation sits at the heart of the infrastructure – both technological innovation using novel and emerging technologies, but also social innovation to explore novel arrangements for data collection, analysis, and knowledge co-production.

Open hardware provides unprecedented opportunities to support such innovation, not only as a source of new sensing and data processing technologies and setups, but also as a catalyst for engaging makers, inventors, entrepeneurs, citizen scientist and other innovation communities in FDRI.

Here we give an overview of the vision and implementation strategy of FDRI, as well as the specific opportunities for engagement, from early experimentation and prototyping to contributing to designing for cost-effectiveness, accuracy, robustness, longevity and long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Buytaert, W., Dussaillant, A., and Veness, W.: Open Hardware in the UK Floods and Droughts Research Infrastructure (FDRI), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18431, 2025.

EGU25-18763 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

Automated wetting of a fiber-optic cable for forest evaporation partitioning 

Gijs Vis and Miriam Coenders-Gerrits

Measuring evaporation through Bowen ratios requires measuring a wet and a dry air temperature, something that is challenging to reliably accomplish in outdoor field conditions. In the context of forest evaporation, the desire to estimate Bowen ratios as a function of height (e.g., to partition evaporation above and below the canopy) adds another dimension of complexity to this measurement challenge.

As part of the Ruijsdael Observatory in the Loobos, Netherlands, we aim to continuously measure evaporation throughout a forest profile, using a dry and a wetted fiber-optic table along a 40 m tower to measure temperature profiles using Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS). Previous studies have used continuous pumping with relatively large flow rates to ensure wetness, but this is not feasible for long term installations because of large water volume requirements.

In this contribution a smart and open-source solution for keeping a wet temperature wet and a dry temperature dry over a 40 m profile is presented. Two peristaltic pumps are regulated using two microcontrollers that modulate the pumping rate along different environmental conditions. For instance, no pumping could be needed at nighttime since there is negligible evaporation and pumping is stopped at low temperatures to prevent frost damage. A capacitive method is presented to attempt to quantify wetness, tank levels are monitored, and solutions for recycling water to limit the water volume requirements are introduced. Microcontrollers are connected to WiFi to enable convenient monitoring from the office.

With this contribution we hope to contribute to generalized solutions to measure evaporation or, in general, to inspire on methods about how to keep hydrological sensors wet or dry.

How to cite: Vis, G. and Coenders-Gerrits, M.: Automated wetting of a fiber-optic cable for forest evaporation partitioning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18763, 2025.

EGU25-19559 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.2

Signal Transmission from the Water Surface for Plastic Pollution Tracking 

Marc Schneiter, Rolf Hut, and Erik Van Sebille

We use surface drifters to sample individual traces of floating macro plastic. These in-situ measurements provide input for the development of Lagrangian simulations to analyze both the dispersion patterns, and the physical transport processes of the plastic. An important component of drifters is the transmission of data directly from the water surface. This is challenging both due to the remoteness of the locations where the transmissions take place, and due to the dynamical movement of the water, which impedes signal transmission. For this reason, expensive satellite modems are often used, with careful design considerations that make the communication possible. The aims of our current research project are twofold: We want to test established and alternative terrestrial communication technologies at tens of kilometers from shore, and extend the knowledge about these data transmissions in challenging environments. This is done with a custom waterproof instrument that can be deployed and kept next to a research vessel. The instrument contains transition modems for satellite, cellular and LoRa communication. We present the construction of the instrument and results of a recent measurement campaign in the North Sea, off the Dutch coast.

How to cite: Schneiter, M., Hut, R., and Van Sebille, E.: Signal Transmission from the Water Surface for Plastic Pollution Tracking, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19559, 2025.

EGU25-6050 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

The First year of the French lysimetric network 

Antoine Sobaga, Pierre Faure-Catteloin, Samuel Abiven, Florence Habets, Noële Enjelvin, and French lysimetric network community

The need for continuous local and long-term observations in the vadose zone has been growing for many years, as they are essential for improving our understanding of the processes occurring in the vadose zone of the soil and enhancing seasonal forecasts from numerical models.

Lysimeters and Ecotrons are the main tools to directly access water and nutrient transport over long periods of time. In France, with the impulsion of the ONEWATER project, a French lysimeter network is in development since April 2024, taking benefice of the existing structure.

A workshop was organised to identify all the sites in France and to collect expectations. We  considered about the major scientific questions that could be supported by such a network, and identifying the measurement systems and instruments that are compatible with our ambitions, as well as considering the management and diffusion of the data.

In 2024, 32 lysimeter sites have been identified in France, with a total of 650 lysimeters. These sites are very heterogeneous : i) different type and size of devices : (columns, boxes, plates, mini-lysimeters, porous cells, Ecotrons, etc.); ii) different filling methods (undisturbed or reconstituted), iii) different measurements (probes, frequency…), iv) different atmospheric condition (natural or controlled)… Despite each site is unique and has specific scientific objectives, they all measure drainage.

The site managers expect this network will help sharing experience in terms of device management, data valorisation and probe development, and to enable the data collected in the sites to be more used.

A main issue with this heterogeneous network is to be able to compare and interprete each site. To do so  several methods will be used, from in situ temporary experiment to numerical simulations. Additional, the individual sites would benefit from some upgrade, with the use of  similar low-cost probes  and  effort will be done to share and valorize the lysimetric data.

How to cite: Sobaga, A., Faure-Catteloin, P., Abiven, S., Habets, F., Enjelvin, N., and lysimetric network community, F.: The First year of the French lysimetric network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6050, 2025.

EGU25-7456 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

Investigating the Effects of Future Climate Scenario on Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Spore Dynamics in a Belgian Pear Orchard Ecosystem 

Chloë Vercauteren, Vera Claessens, and Nadia Soudzilovskaia

Climate change poses a significant threat to global natural- and agroecosystems, affecting key soil microbial communities, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). These fungi form symbiotic relationships with most terrestrial plants, including economically important ones like fruit trees. AMF are significantly sensitive to various climatic parameters, which influence their species composition, diversity, and ecological functions. Additionally, climate change alters AMF temporal dynamics, affecting their growth, distribution, and interactions with host plants across seasons.

Despite these insights, a critical knowledge gap remains in understanding how multiple climatic parameters simultaneously affect the dynamics of AMF communities. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the response of AMF in pear orchards to the worst-case climate scenario (i.e., RCP8.5) projected for Belgium in 2040. We used a state-of-the-art Ecotron facility, to simulate both ambient (2018) and future (2040) climate conditions in a pear orchard. In total six trees have been grown in the Ecotron in each of the climatic conditions. We assessed diversity, composition, and temporal dynamics of AMF spores, revealing patterns of  dormancy and activity, and providing insights into shifts of AMF community phenology induced by climate change. Our research elucidates climate-driven dynamics of AMF in agricultural systems, and provides insights into maintaining sustainable crop production and soil fertility under future climate conditions.

How to cite: Vercauteren, C., Claessens, V., and Soudzilovskaia, N.: Investigating the Effects of Future Climate Scenario on Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Spore Dynamics in a Belgian Pear Orchard Ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7456, 2025.

EGU25-8343 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

Soil solution chemistry along a land cover transect in the alpine tundra (NW Italian Alps) 

Andrea Benech, Emanuele Pintaldi, Nicola Colombo, and Michele Freppaz

Soil solution sampling is a critical approach to understand the dynamics of water and nutrient transport in terrestrial ecosystems, however little information is available for high-elevation environments. During the summer 2024, soil solution was sampled at 10 cm depth in the Long Term Ecological Research-LTER site Istituto Mosso (2650 – 2900 m a.s.l., NW Italian Alps), using 30 soil disc lysimeters among 3 distinct vegetation communities belonging to alpine tundra ecosystem: snowbed communities, Carex curvula grasslands, and mixed conditions. This work presents new insights in the application of soil suction lysimeters at high-elevated, logistically-complex environments. By collecting and analyzing the soil solution, we aimed to contribute to the comprehension of the functioning of alpine tundra ecosystems, particularly under the pressure of climate change, focusing on the possible shift in vegetation cover from snowbed communities toward Carex curvula grasslands due to higher air/soil temperature and earlier spring snowmelt. These measurements were complemented by continuous monitoring of soil temperature and moisture, providing a comprehensive understanding of soil dynamics in these ecosystems. Special attention was paid to the transport processes of water and nutrients (namely carbon and nitrogen), which are fundamental to understand biogeochemical cycling in alpine areas. Notably, the content of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) was the highest in Carex curvula grasslands, while nitrate concentrations exceeded those of ammonium across all sites. The outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to advancing methodologies in soil solution sampling and provide critical information for evaluating alpine ecosystem responses to changing climatic conditions. These findings will also help refining our understanding of water and nutrient dynamics, offering implications for both ecological research and management strategies in vulnerable high-elevation environments.

Research supported by NBFC - University of Turin/DISAFA, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, PNRR, Mission 4 Component 2, “Dalla ricerca all’impresa”, Investment 1.4, Project CN00000033

How to cite: Benech, A., Pintaldi, E., Colombo, N., and Freppaz, M.: Soil solution chemistry along a land cover transect in the alpine tundra (NW Italian Alps), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8343, 2025.

EGU25-8359 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3 | Highlight

Development of the "Agricultural Simulator" AgraSim for comprehensive experimental simulation and analysis of environmental impacts on processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system 

Joschka Neumann, Nicolas Brüggemann, Patrick Chaumet, Normen Hermes, Jan Huwer, Peter Kirchner, Werner Lesmeister, Wilhelm August Mertens, Thomas Pütz, Jörg Wolters, Harry Vereecken, and Ghaleb Natour

For studying the effects of future climate conditions on plant physiological, biogeochemical, hydrological and atmospheric processes in agroecosystems, we developed a large-scale research infrastructure, called AgraSim. AgraSim is an experimental simulator consisting of six mesocosms, each of them consisting of an integrated climate chamber, plant chamber and lysimeter system. The system makes it possible to simulate the environmental conditions in the mesocosms in a fully controlled manner under different weather and climate conditions ranging from tropical to boreal climate. Moreover, it provides a unique way of imposing future climate conditions which presently cannot be implemented under real-world conditions. It allows monitoring and controlling states and fluxes of a broad range of processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. This information can then be used to give input to process models, to improve process descriptions and to serve as a platform for the development of a digital twin of the soil-plant-atmosphere system. In detail, each mesocosm consists of a high-precision lysimeter (weighable, control of temperature and lower boundary) with a monolithic soil core (1 m2 surface area and 1.5 m depth) and a transparent, fully controllable plant chamber (7 m3 volume) with an LED light source very similar to the natural solar spectrum with a maximum intensity of 2,500 μmol of photosynthetically active photons per square meter and second. With an in-house developed, fully automated process control system, defined climatic and weather conditions as well as air compositions can be set and varied on the basis of a predefined weather data profile. The inner surfaces of the plant chambers have the purest and most inert properties possible, with the aim of minimizing interactions between the ambient air of the plants and the chamber wall. Strong LED-based plant lighting provides light conditions similar to daylight, which prevents too large heat input into the chamber. A new concept was developed and implemented to dissipate this heat by avoiding condensation at all times, as condensation dissolves gas molecules from the air in the condensate, changing the isotope composition and thus impeding the atmospheric measurements. The process technology includes the precise control of the supply air volume flow, pressure, humidity, carbon dioxide content, air temperature, light intensity within the plant chamber, soil temperature and irrigation.

How to cite: Neumann, J., Brüggemann, N., Chaumet, P., Hermes, N., Huwer, J., Kirchner, P., Lesmeister, W., Mertens, W. A., Pütz, T., Wolters, J., Vereecken, H., and Natour, G.: Development of the "Agricultural Simulator" AgraSim for comprehensive experimental simulation and analysis of environmental impacts on processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8359, 2025.

EGU25-11225 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

Higher decomposer functional diversity bolsters ecosystem gross primary productivity resistance under drought: a three-year ecotron study 

Alexandru Milcu, Sandra Barantal, Emmanuel S Gritti, Justine Laoue, Johanne Nahmani, and Stephan Hattenschwiller

Projected climatic conditions, such as more frequent and prolonged droughts, are expected to become more common in many regions of the world according to the IPCC 2023 report, particularly in the Mediterranean. These conditions can reduce plant CO2 uptake, gross primary productivity, and decomposition rates, potentially disrupting the carbon cycle. While higher soil biodiversity might mitigate these adverse drought effects by enhancing productivity and decomposition stability, the net effect on ecosystem CO2 exchange remains largely uncertain, making future carbon cycle predictions challenging.

Using a reconstructed Mediterranean understory model ecosystem, we conducted a three-year experiment in 16 lysimeters (1m³ soil volume, 1m² surface area) at the Montpellier European Ecotron (www.ecotron.cnrs.fr). We tested two levels of decomposer functional diversity (low and high) under ambient summer drought and more intense drought conditions (-30% precipitation and longer drought spells). Our results show that higher decomposer functional diversity maintained up to 25% higher gross primary productivity (GPP) during the early stages of drought. This response was partly due to better water uptake from the deeper soil layers, as indicated by volumetric water content sensors.

How to cite: Milcu, A., Barantal, S., Gritti, E. S., Laoue, J., Nahmani, J., and Hattenschwiller, S.: Higher decomposer functional diversity bolsters ecosystem gross primary productivity resistance under drought: a three-year ecotron study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11225, 2025.

The dynamic changes of soil water and salt are crucial for crop growth and agricultural productivity. Understanding soil water and salt movement mechanisms, influenced by natural and human factors like climate change, groundwater, and brackish water irrigation, remains challenging. This study focused on the Yellow River Irrigation District, a critical grain-producing area with limited freshwater resources and saline soils. Using Yucheng Station as a case study, field experiments (2004–2020) and model simulations (2023–2053) were conducted to investigate the dynamics and influencing factors of soil water and salt under winter wheat-summer maize rotation.

Field experiments revealed that crop yields decreased with groundwater depth, significantly impacting soil water and salt dynamics. HYDRUS-1D simulations, calibrated with monitoring data (2020–2023), effectively captured these dynamics, achieving high accuracy in soil moisture and salt concentration predictions. Climate change scenarios showed soil water and salt fluctuations aligned with crop growth cycles, with rainfall intensity and crop evapotranspiration being key factors. Higher rainfall in SSP585 scenarios enhanced salt leaching compared to SSP245, while salt accumulation in the cultivation layer was prominent during dry years.

Groundwater depth significantly influenced farmland-water interactions. At shallower depths (2 m), groundwater contributed substantially to crop water use but posed risks of soil salt stress. Conversely, deeper depths (4 m) reduced these contributions, highlighting the balance needed for optimal groundwater management. Long-term brackish water irrigation showed increasing soil salt trends, with salt migration influenced by rainfall and groundwater depth. To mitigate risks and enhance brackish water use, irrigation with ≤3 g/L salt concentration and groundwater depth control at 3 m is recommended for sustainable soil water and salt management, ensuring crop productivity and food security under future climate conditions.

How to cite: Li, F., Qiao, Y., and Li, Z.: Dynamics of Soil Water and Salt in Saline Farmlands: Implications for Brackish Water Irrigation and Climate Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16521, 2025.

EGU25-18588 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

The Ecotron Time Machine – Simulating Climate Change in Controlled Environment Facilities 

Bálint Jákli, Roman Meier, and Manuela Baumgarten

Controlled Environment Facilities (CEFs) – including phytotron, ecotron, and lysimeter systems – are essential tools in experimental plant research. Studies conducted in CEFs have substantially advanced our understanding of ecological, physiological, and molecular responses to environmental factors, and have played an important role in the development and parameterization of mechanistic models.

Until recently, climate change research in controlled environments primarily focused on the static manipulation of a single (or few) parameters, notably temperature. However, modern CEFs now enable the highly precise, simultaneous control of multiple environmental variables, such as temperature, VPD, light, soil temperature, and soil moisture, as well as the accurate manipulation of atmospheric gases (e.g., CO₂ and ozone).

The ability to maintain these factors at high temporal resolution effectively turns CEFs into “time machines,” allowing researchers to investigate plant and model-ecosystem responses under realistic climate change scenarios. Although the technical implementation of complex climate series has become more feasible, the core challenge lies in generating climate series that capture potential future conditions while avoiding oversimplification and meeting the scientific requirements for standardization and reproducibility.

In this contribution, we present examples from various experiments conducted at the TUM Model EcoSystem Analyser (TUMmesa). These range from incremental manipulation of individual environmental variables, through the replication of historically recorded climate series, to the dynamic downscaling of global climate models driven by representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.

These recent advancements highlight the potential of modern CEFs to deepen our understanding of plant-environment interactions and support robust investigations of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

How to cite: Jákli, B., Meier, R., and Baumgarten, M.: The Ecotron Time Machine – Simulating Climate Change in Controlled Environment Facilities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18588, 2025.

EGU25-21639 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

Measuring Evapotranspiration at Cabauw (The Netherlands)  

Evert I. F. de Bruijn and Jessica M. I. Strickland

Droughts in the Netherlands have been exacerbated by climate change, urging better scientific understanding of the hydrological cycle. Moreover, reliable predictions and management rely on accurate water observations at the surface. To date, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) primarily estimates evaporation based on the meteorological conditions such as precipitation and temperature. Meanwhile, the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research has maintained decades of in-situ evaporation observations, exploring a range of indirect in-situ methods. Nonetheless, to better understand how moisture leaves the surface, more direct methods are required. A new smart lysimeter has been deployed which measures the water inflow and outflow of a representative soil and vegetation column. We evaluate this direct method for measuring evapotranspiration and 
compare the performance to other established methods, such as the eddy covariance method. Lysimeter measurements, although precise, are spatially limited, sensitive to small-scale variations, and require rigorous validation. Therefore, we present the initial results of the validation and explore the lysimeter’s potential as a reference standard for more accessible instruments that could broaden the scope of the evaporation observations network. Furthermore, by integrating supplementary in-situ measurements, our findings suggest that applying validated lysimeter data may lead to better closure of the surface energy balance. Looking towards the future, these results have the potential to advance hydrological research, 
inform models, as well as environmental decision-making. 

How to cite: de Bruijn, E. I. F. and Strickland, J. M. I.: Measuring Evapotranspiration at Cabauw (The Netherlands) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21639, 2025.

EGU25-21644 | Posters on site | HS1.2.3

Advancing Design and Functionality of Lysimeter/Ecotron Systems through Modeling  

Janja Vrzel, Maria Mursaikova, Hans Kupfersberger, and Gernot Klammler

Lysimeter systems play a crucial role in understanding the complex interactions within the soil-plant-atmosphere  continuum.  In  the  context  of  climate  change,  where  precise  insights  into  water  and nutrient fluxes, energy exchange, and greenhouse gas dynamics are essential, lysimeters equipped with advanced hydraulic and thermal controls are increasingly indispensable. A key innovation in this field is the integration of suction-controlled hydraulic boundary conditions and active temperature regulation, which significantly enhances the capability of lysimeters to mimic natural processes while maintaining  experimental  control.  These  functionalities  are  particularly  critical  in  ecotron experimental platforms, where controlled yet realistic environmental conditions are required for high-resolution and high-quality observations. 
Our  research  focuses  on  the  optimization  of  lysimeter  design  and  functionality  using  advanced computational tools. Specifically, we developed a 2D- and a comprehensive 3D-modeling approaches to  investigate  and  refine  the  technical  design  of  lysimeter  systems  equipped  with underpressure-controlled hydraulic boundary conditions and temperature regulation mechanisms. Two simulation models,  HYDRUS  and  FEFLOW,  were  systematically  tested  and  compared  for  their  suitability  in simulating these complex systems. 
We  present  the  results  of  scenario  analyses  conducted  to  evaluate  and  optimize  critical  design parameters, including (1) the number and spatial arrangement of suction cups required to achieve precise suction-controlled hydraulic boundary conditions, (2) the number, positioning, and dimensions of  heat  exchanger  pipes  for  effective  temperature  regulation  and  (3)  the  influence  of  insulation thickness at the bottom of the lysimeter on thermal efficiency and system stability. Our findings also demonstrate the strengths and limitations of both HYDRUS and FEFLOW in capturing the dynamics of water and energy transport in lysimeters. Our work not only contributes to the technical advancement of lysimeter and ecotron platforms but also supports their broader application in ecosystem research. By  integrating  robust  design  methodologies  with  cutting-edge  simulation  tools,  we  provide  a framework for enhancing the reliability and functionality of these experimental systems.  
In  conclusion,  this  study  highlights  the  potential  of  modeling  and  scenario-based  optimization in improving the design and operational efficiency of lysimeters with advanced hydraulic and thermal controls.  The  insights  gained  from  our  research  are  expected  to  support  future  applications of lysimeter and ecotron systems in addressing critical questions related to climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. 

How to cite: Vrzel, J., Mursaikova, M., Kupfersberger, H., and Klammler, G.: Advancing Design and Functionality of Lysimeter/Ecotron Systems through Modeling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21644, 2025.

EGU25-1140 | Orals | HS1.2.4

Advancing River Monitoring: High-Resolution Surface Velocity Measurement Using Range-Doppler Radar from Moving Platforms 

Sanja Grubesa, Luka Drmic, Niksa Orlic, and Tomislav Grubeša

High-resolution hydrometric monitoring of rivers is crucial as climate change significantly impacts the frequency and intensity of extreme events, leading to rapidly evolving flood and drought risk profiles. However, hydrometric data is often limited, with insufficient spatial resolution and coverage, especially in remote or hard-to-access rivers in alpine, arctic, and tropical regions.

Traditional hydrometric monitoring relies on station-based, in-situ measurements. Parameters such as water surface elevation, flow velocity, bed geometry, and river discharge are typically recorded using sensors installed directly in or near the flow.

In this study, we analyzed velocity measurements obtained using range-Doppler radar and compared them to Doppler radar experiments. Our findings demonstrate that range-Doppler radar is more effective for measuring surface velocity from a moving platform. Here, we discuss the methodology and rationale for adopting this innovative approach in future research on water observation systems. By utilizing range-Doppler radar, we aim to achieve high-resolution, extensive spatial coverage for key hydrometric variables like surface velocity.

How to cite: Grubesa, S., Drmic, L., Orlic, N., and Grubeša, T.: Advancing River Monitoring: High-Resolution Surface Velocity Measurement Using Range-Doppler Radar from Moving Platforms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1140, 2025.

With the rapid development of UAV technology, the challenge of selecting appropriate sampling areas and flight altitudes to ensure that collected data is both representative and accurate has gained increasing attention in the field of sedimentology. This study specifically investigates UAV-based sampling methods for riverbed grain size analysis, focusing on the critical task of determining optimal flight altitudes and sampling areas that can accurately capture the distribution of riverbed sediments.

By comparing systematic sampling with other traditional methods, this research aims to validate the precision and reliability of data collected through UAV imaging. The results show that under carefully selected conditions, such as a 5m×5m area with a flight altitude of 20 meters, it is possible to balance the need for detailed resolution with the goal of reducing errors caused by abnormal grain size distributions. This study further contributes to the optimization of UAV sampling methods, providing guidelines for practitioners seeking to enhance the accuracy and representativeness of their sediment research.

The findings of this research not only offer practical recommendations for UAV-based sediment analysis but also introduce strategies to improve sampling methodologies in river systems. These strategies aim to reduce biases and improve the reliability of UAV-generated data in riverbed sediment studies, ultimately contributing to more robust environmental monitoring and management practices.

 

How to cite: te wei, W.: UAV image analysis of particle size distribution in rivers  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3383, 2025.

EGU25-4136 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Applying the Entropy theory to estimate river flow using the surface velocity by UAS‐Borne Doppler Radar 

Farhad Bahmanpouri, Silvia Barbetta, Xinqi Hu, Zhen Zhou, Daniel Wennerberg, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Peter Bauer‐Gottwein

River monitoring is of particular importance in river engineering due to decision-making related to protecting life and property from water-related hazards, such as floods and water resources management.

In this direction, three cross-sections (XSs) were surveyed along a 10 km stretch of the Rönne River in Sweden. Ground-truth surface velocity measurements were obtained using an electromagnetic velocity sensor (OTT MF Pro). Additionally, videos captured by a UAS RGB camera were analyzed using both Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and Space-Time Image Velocimetry (STIV) techniques (Zhou et al., 2024). The bathymetry data for all cross-sections were recorded by the water penetrating radar.

The Entropy model was applied to the three different selected sites to estimate the two-dimensional cross-sectional velocity distribution by exploiting the available data, with the aim to estimate river discharge. Specifically, the surface velocities and bathymetry data for each section were considered as input for the Entropy model (Bahmanpouri et al., 2022a, b). The phenomenon of the velocity dip induced by the secondary current was also implemented in the estimation of the vertical velocity distribution where, for aspect ratios (river width/flow depth) lower than 5, the maximum velocity was observed below the water surface. Secondary currents result in a vertical shift in momentum, enhancing the turbulence and shear stress near the bed. Finally, the discharge rate was calculated for each cross-section using the mean velocity of the section and the observed flow area. The results highlighted the potential of the combination of the UAS‐Borne Doppler Radar and the theoretical Entropy model to estimate the velocity distribution and flow discharge with high accuracy. The suggested methodology would be of particular benefit in estimating the velocity distribution and flow discharge for inaccessible locations especially during high flow conditions where there are in-situ dangers for operators to measure flow characteristics. The work is funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme as part of the UAWOS project (Unoccupied Airborne Water Observing System).

 

Keywords: Entropy, Velocity distribution, Velocity dip, Flow discharge, UAS‐Borne Doppler Radar, Rönne River

Bahmanpouri, F., Barbetta, S., Gualtieri, C., Ianniruberto, M., Filizola, N., Termini, D., & Moramarco, T. (2022). Prediction of river discharges at confluences based on Entropy theory and surface-velocity measurements. Journal of Hydrology606, 127404.

Bahmanpouri, F., Eltner, A., Barbetta, S., Bertalan, L., & Moramarco, T. (2022). Estimating the average river cross‐section velocity by observing only one surface velocity value and calibrating the entropic parameter. Water Resources Research58(10), e2021WR031821.

Zhou, Z., Riis‐Klinkvort, L., Jørgensen, E. A., Lindenhoff, C., Frías, M. C., Vesterhauge, A. R., ... & Bauer‐Gottwein, P. (2024). Measuring river surface velocity using UAS‐borne Doppler radar. Water Resources Research60(11), e2024WR037375.

How to cite: Bahmanpouri, F., Barbetta, S., Hu, X., Zhou, Z., Wennerberg, D., Tarpanelli, A., and Bauer‐Gottwein, P.: Applying the Entropy theory to estimate river flow using the surface velocity by UAS‐Borne Doppler Radar, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4136, 2025.

EGU25-5749 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Virtual station rating curves derived from hydraulic models informed with UAS hydrometry and SWOT WSE  

Zhen Zhou, Freja Damgaard Christensen, Villads Flendsted Jensen, Michael Andreas Pedersen, Sune Nielsen, Daniel Wennerberg, Viktor Fagerström, David Gustafsson, Daniel Cendagorta, Maria Jose Escorihuela, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein

With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as river flooding, there is a growing need for more cost-effective and efficient methods for hydrometric river monitoring. Moreover, traditional in-situ hydrometric surveys often face challenges when applied to remote or hard-to-access river locations. Therefore, we investigated the potential of using Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) hydrometry surveys to develop a hydraulic model for extracting rating curves, which can then be used to derive discharge from satellite altimetry-based Water Surface Elevation (WSE) measurements.

This study employed UAS-borne Water Penetrating Radar (WPR) to map river bathymetry, while Digital Elevation Models (DEM) were used to extract the non-submerged portions along the WPR cross section. A Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver provided ground truth WSE measurements. Additionally, the pixel cloud data product of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission was used to extract WSE along the river. Furthermore, based on the cross sectional geometry information, we constructed two one-dimensional hydraulic models, one using a steady gradually-varied flow solver and the other using the MIKE+ hydrodynamic solver.

The study site is located along the Torne River in northern Scandinavia, which forms part of the national border between Sweden and Finland. From September 3rd to 9th, 2024, surveys were conducted at 23 field sites distributed across two areas of interest along the river. Manning's numbers for the river reaches were calibrated against WSE observations derived from the SWOT pixel cloud dataset using the steady gradually-varied flow solver. Hydraulic models were employed to construct rating curves at chainage locations where observations from the Sentinel-3 satellite mission were available at two defined virtual stations: Övertorneå and Pello. These rating curves were subsequently used to convert WSE observations by the SWOT pixel cloud and Sentinel-3 to discharge, enabling the construction of a river discharge time series.

How to cite: Zhou, Z., Damgaard Christensen, F., Flendsted Jensen, V., Andreas Pedersen, M., Nielsen, S., Wennerberg, D., Fagerström, V., Gustafsson, D., Cendagorta, D., Jose Escorihuela, M., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: Virtual station rating curves derived from hydraulic models informed with UAS hydrometry and SWOT WSE , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5749, 2025.

EGU25-5794 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.4

Inverting the Friction Coefficient of Heterogeneous Riverbeds Using 2D Hydraulic Simulations and Fluvial Topo-Bathymetric LiDAR Data 

Ron Nativ, Philippe Steer, Laure Guerit, Philippe Davy, Boris Gailleton, Paul Leroy, Vincent Godard, Rodolphe Cattin, and Dimitri Lague

Forecasting the magnitude and frequency of floods has become progressively important under climate change. Flood inundation, determined by flow depth and velocity, results from the interplay between gravitational and frictional forces. Flow resistance, a critical factor in determining velocity, is often parameterized using the roughness coefficient Manning’s n. Despite its importance in geomorphology and hydrology, constraining n in natural rivers remains challenging, as synoptic data on riverbed geometry and roughness are sparse. Topo-Bathymetric LiDAR (TBL) data open up new opportunities to constrain the spatial variation of n in rivers by providing detailed and accurate measurements of riverbed and water surface geometry. This study presents a novel, iterative approach to estimate spatially variable n values across a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), given that the channel bed, water surface, and total discharge are independently constrained. The method adjusts n iteratively until the best agreement between predicted and measured water depth is achieved. The model is first validated on artificial, homogeneous reference surfaces to establish statistical criteria for convergence to an optimal solution. We demonstrate the model's ability to resolve complex n distributions by introducing different n patches with varying patch sizes and testing how backwater effects influence model accuracy across varying channel slopes, n patch sizes, and river discharges. Finally, we apply our approach to a 1 m resolution DEM created from a high-resolution TBL dataset covering the 25 km-long Ardèche Gorge, France. This application highlights the method's effectiveness in natural environments, emphasizing its potential to enhance flow resistance parameterization linked to morphological characteristics when channel bed, water surface, and discharge data are available.

How to cite: Nativ, R., Steer, P., Guerit, L., Davy, P., Gailleton, B., Leroy, P., Godard, V., Cattin, R., and Lague, D.: Inverting the Friction Coefficient of Heterogeneous Riverbeds Using 2D Hydraulic Simulations and Fluvial Topo-Bathymetric LiDAR Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5794, 2025.

EGU25-7488 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.4

StreamScope: Fixed-mount laser scanning instrumentation for remote stream gauging in shallow rivers with frequently changing geomorphologies 

Braden White, Jonathan Gourley, Jorge Duarte, Pierre Kirstetter, and Danny Wasielewski

A novel approach has been developed to facilitate streaming gauging in shallow rivers with frequently changing geomorphologies. This effort, developed in partnership with the United States Geological Survey (USGS), aims to ultimately generate more accurate, real-time discharge estimates at previously ungauged locations in remote areas.

This presentation will introduce the StreamScope, designed for automated bathymetry retrievals. It is a low-power laser scanning instrument that uses a Class II 620 nm laser and an ultrasonic sensor to remotely measure cross-sectional geometry and generate real-time stage-area ratings. By utilizing onboard automation and clustering algorithms, StreamScope can accurately measure channel bathymetry using multiple angles, determine stream width and stage, providing data to enable real-time discharge estimates from noncontact sensors. Results from laboratory experiments will be presented to evaluate the laser’s efficacy under different solar radiation conditions, varying turbidity levels at different water depths, different bottom substrates, and at varying heights above the water’s surface. Notably, the experiments revealed that the laser's distance retrievals may serve as a proxy for turbidity, offering a potential new method for assessing water clarity in real-time.

How to cite: White, B., Gourley, J., Duarte, J., Kirstetter, P., and Wasielewski, D.: StreamScope: Fixed-mount laser scanning instrumentation for remote stream gauging in shallow rivers with frequently changing geomorphologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7488, 2025.

EGU25-8317 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Analysis of velocities along depths : complementarity of ADCP and LSPIV technologies for hydrometric studies  

Tristan Perriaud, Alexandre Hauet, Thomas Morlot, and Guillaume Bodart

Introduction 

EDF (Électricité de France) is one of the world's largest electricity generators, with an installed capacity of about 130 GW. Streamflow velocity analysis plays a critical role within its hydroelectric and nuclear activities in ensuring the safety of facilities, optimizing the use of natural resources and meeting environmental requirements.

The ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler) is a key technology for measuring flow rates and velocity profiles along depths. Based on the Doppler effect, this method detects frequency shifts generated by the movement of particles in the water. The collected data is then processed using specialized software such as VMT (Velocity Mapping Toolbox [1]) or the MAP tool integrated into the QRevInt software [2] to compute 3D streamflow velocity. However, the ADCP technology has significant limitations due to its "local" perspective, which focuses only on transects. To understand larger-scale flow patterns, such as recirculation zones and water pathways, a broader spatial coverage is required. The ADCP struggles to provide this coverage due to deployment time constraints and operational conditions related to stable flow rates. Generally, only a limited number of transects can be carried out.

To complement ADCP data, LSPIV (Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry) can be used. This method analyzes image sequences of the flow. By detecting visible tracers such as plant debris, bubbles, or turbulence patterns, it estimates the 2D surface velocity field. The Fudaa LSPIV software, developed by INRAE and EDF [3], is particularly well-suited for large-scale applications and easy to use, especially when combined with images from aerial drones. This makes it highly useful for rapid measurements over large areas, providing a comprehensive understanding of the steady-state flow patterns. It effectively addresses the limitations of ADCP technology, offering a complementary solution for more complete hydrodynamic analyses.

Practical example : study of Bazacle

  • Context

A practical example of this complementarity is an operational study conducted at EDF's Bazacle hydroelectric plant on the Garonne River in Toulouse, France. By combining a Teledyne RDI RioPro 1200kHz ADCP mounted on a Pario2 aquatic drone from RiverDrone with LSPIV technologies using an aerial drone, a comprehensive analysis of velocity profiles was performed to design a solution focused on optimizing fish ecological continuity in the studied area.

  • Results

For this study, about ten transects were conducted at varying distances from the intake of the turbine and the Bazacle weir. The observed surface velocities ranged between [0;140 cm/s]. They were higher on the right bank, immediately upstream of the water intake screen, and downstream the weir. Velocities at depth ranged between [0;60 cm/s] upstream of the weir and between [0; 120 cm/s] downstream.

References

[1] Parsons, D. R., Jackson, P. R., Czuba, J. A., Engel, F. L., Rhoads, B. L., Oberg, K. A., Best, J. L., Mueller, D. S., Johnson, K. K., & Riley, J. D. (2012). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/esp.3367

[2] Lennermark, M., & Hauet, A. (2022). https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/EGU22-9379.html

[3] Le Coz, J., Jodeau, M., Hauet, A., Marchand, B., Le Boursicaud, R. (2014) River Flow.

How to cite: Perriaud, T., Hauet, A., Morlot, T., and Bodart, G.: Analysis of velocities along depths : complementarity of ADCP and LSPIV technologies for hydrometric studies , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8317, 2025.

EGU25-8779 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Critical Assessment of Discharge Measurement Approaches in Small Streams: A Comparison of Traditional Methods and the Novel Thermal Imaging Method 

Christina Schubert, Robert van Geldern, Anna-Neva Visser, Wolfgang Gossel, and Johannes A. C. Barth

Discharge evaluations in spring-fed headwater streams are crucial for understanding hydrological processes and improving water resource management. Small streams, however, pose challenges due to low flow and turbulent conditions that limit the reliable application of traditional methods such as impeller devices, electromagnetic sensors and acoustic doppler profilers.

This study tested a variety of discharge measurement methods in two catchments with differing hydrological and physical attributes. The tested methods included impeller and electromagnetic current meters, volumetric gauging, a floating method, chemical and optical tracers and an innovative thermal imaging technique. The thermal imaging method involved introducing hot water into the stream and observing its heat dispersion using a thermal imaging camera.

Results highlighted the strengths and limitations of each approach under varying conditions. At sites with very low discharge of 0.1 to 0.3 L s-1 or highly turbulent flows of 15 to 22 L s-1, discrepancies between methods reached up to ±45%. In contrast, measurements at sites with moderate discharge of 2 to 6 L s-1 and smoother riverbeds, showed error margins mostly below 10%. The novel thermal imaging approach proved to be reliable, easy to use, minimally invasive, and particularly effective for small or hydrologically complex spring systems.

How to cite: Schubert, C., van Geldern, R., Visser, A.-N., Gossel, W., and Barth, J. A. C.: Critical Assessment of Discharge Measurement Approaches in Small Streams: A Comparison of Traditional Methods and the Novel Thermal Imaging Method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8779, 2025.

EGU25-12905 | Orals | HS1.2.4

Automated Salt Dilution Instream Q (ASDIQ) with Image Velocimetry (IV): It Looks Like a Salty Marriage 

Gabriel Sentlinger, Jean-Christophe Poisson, Antoine Patalano, and Sam Mackay

Salt Dilution (SD) is an accurate, safe, relatively inexpensive and easily employed method to measure water flow in turbulent streams and rivers.  It has been used in some form for over 100 years and continues to experience a renaissance with refined methods and improved technologies.  However.. SD is challenging in less turbulent flows without “complete” lateral mixing, and also requires a continuous estimate of water level or other proxy to generate a continuous hydrograph. Image Velocimetry (IV, Large Particle IV or Space Time IV), on the other hand, has been used for more than 20 years to estimate the flow in more placid rivers and streams without making contact with the water, using high resolution video to measure the surface velocity.  However.. apriori estimates of the surface (VS) to bulk (VB) velocity ratio (k) is required, as well as the channel wetted area (A).

In this research we examine whether we can marry the two technologies to create a comprehensive automated flow measurement system to span all flow regimes from turbulent to placid, by removing the need for apriori knowledge in the case of IV, and using continuous imagery as the proxy flow estimate in the case of SD.  SD measures Q; IV measures VS; this method combines the two using the equation Q = VS*k*A to estimate continuous Q, as well as an estimate of surface to bulk velocity ratio (k), and wetted area (A).

The method/system has the potential to replace conventional stations that rely on expensive and dangerous site visits and error prone water level sensor proxies.  The results of our preliminary investigations are presented for 3 test stations.

How to cite: Sentlinger, G., Poisson, J.-C., Patalano, A., and Mackay, S.: Automated Salt Dilution Instream Q (ASDIQ) with Image Velocimetry (IV): It Looks Like a Salty Marriage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12905, 2025.

EGU25-13312 | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Leveraging the potential of satellite time series, cloud computing and artificial intelligence to quantify fluvial biogeomorphology across multiple scales 

Florian Betz, Magdalena Lauermann, Baturalp Arisoy, Isabell Becker, Gregory Egger, and Maksim Kulikov

Riverine landscapes are shaped by the feedbacks between hydrological, geomorphological and ecological processes. These feedbacks occur across multiple scales, from the scale of single plants modifying the hydraulic forces around it to the formation of landforms like islands which in turn lead to the emergence of specific river types such as braided or anastomising. Over the past years, the field of biogeomorphology has significantly improved the understanding of the interaction of vegetation and hydro-morphological processes. Despite recent scientific progress, research gaps remain. In particular, it is still poorly understood, how processes happening on small scales, such as sedimentation in the lee of an individual plant or a piece of large wood, lead to the emergence of landforms and reach scale river types and how – vice versa – the specific landform pattern within river types foster small scale processes. The concept of Panarchy considering a number of adaptive cycles linking the different scales of the fluvial biogeomorphic system is a promising candidate for analyzing cross-scale vegetation-hydromorphology feedbacks. However, developing methods for quantitative studies is still an ongoing challenge in biogeomorphological research.

We introduce an empirical approach for filling this research gap driven by a combination of field mapping and state-of-the-art remote sensing taking the Naryn River, a large free flowing river in Kyrgyzstan, as a case study. In the field, we map vegetation traits and geomorphic characteristics and link them to the stages of the biogeomorphic succession concept. Then, we utilize the computational potential of the “Terrabyte” cloud computing platform of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) to analyze temporally dense time series from the Sentinel-1 and -2 archives. To map vegetation and hydro-geomorphic characteristics (vegetation height, density, biomass, share of bare sediment, grainsize, duration of inundation) and to assess how these biogeomorphic traits change over time, we make use of the capabilities of the recently available foundational deep learning model “Clay” as state-of-the-art artificial intelligence method in earth observation. This enables river corridor scale analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamics of hydro-geomorphic disturbance, rejuvenation potential (windows of opportunity), vegetation growth as well as the emergence of biogeomorphic feedback windows and therefore tracking the biogeomorphic succession. This gives us the possibility to study adaptive cycles on different scales and construct Panarchies for different river types occurring along the Naryn River. Our approach is a significant step towards the quantification of biogeomorphic feedbacks across multiple scales and advances the empirical understanding of the role of scale dependence of biogeomorphic feedbacks which lead to the emergence of riverine landscape pattern.

How to cite: Betz, F., Lauermann, M., Arisoy, B., Becker, I., Egger, G., and Kulikov, M.: Leveraging the potential of satellite time series, cloud computing and artificial intelligence to quantify fluvial biogeomorphology across multiple scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13312, 2025.

EGU25-15570 | Orals | HS1.2.4

Qgis RiverBanks tools suite for morphological river analysis 

Gianfranco Di Pietro, Martina Stagnitti, Valeria Pennisi, Enrico Foti, and Rosaria Ester Musumeci

Riverbank analyses are crucial for understanding fluvial dynamics, evaluating environmental risks, and promoting the sustainable management of river catchments. The monitoring, assessment, and governance of river basins, as prescribed by EU Directives 2000/60/EC (Water Framework Directive) and 2007/60/EC (Floods Directive), are declined by Member States with their own guidelines and methodologies. This makes it difficult to develop globally applicable calculation tools for analyses.
To address these challenges, we developed a new toolkit of QGIS-based model scripts called QGIS Riverbanks Tools, advancing global riverbank analysis, management, and classification for various applications and serving as a foundational step toward a comprehensive suite for the assessment of the historical evolution of watercourses and the prediction of future tendencies. The scripts are specifically designed to support river analysis and risk assessment procedures, such as those outlined in the Italian IDRAIM methodology (Rinaldi et al., 2014), in particular, the developed tools are:

  • Confined Valley Index (CVI): This tool quantifies the confinement of a river within its valley by calculating the ratio between the valley bottom width and riverbank width. It provides critical insights into river confinement, aiding in the identification of areas influenced by geomorphologic or hydrological constraints.
  • River Banks Distance (RBD) and River Banks Distance Comparison (RBDC): These scripts calculate the distances between the river centerline and its banks using transects along a defined path. They facilitate the comparison of riverbank distances across different time periods (in any temporal scale), supports historical trend analyses and quantitative assessments of riverbank erosion.
  • River Banks Segments Cutter (RBSC): This model segments riverbanks into discrete sections based on predefined stretches of the river centerline. Each segment inherits attributes from the centerline, facilitating localized analyses and improving data granularity.
  • River Banks Safety Bands Tool (RBSBT): By calculating buffer zones around riverbanks based on annual erosion rates and user-defined multiplicative factors, this tool generates safety bands. These zones are critical for risk assessment and the planning of mitigation measures.

The QGIS Riverbanks Tools have been effectively applied in hydrological and hydraulic studies across more than 15 Sicilian rivers, yielding significant results in flood risk management and river morphology monitoring. By providing a standardized framework for analysis, these tools enhance accuracy in risk assessment and river segment classification and facilitate comparative analyses across diverse hydrodynamic fluvial contexts. Users can define parameters such as transect width, segmentation step, and erosion rate factors, adapting the models to various river systems. All tools generate many outputs with geospatial layers with rich attribute tables, enabling immediate visualization and in-depth analyses. Detailed guidance on using each tool, including descriptions of input parameters, variables, and output data, is embedded within the models as in-built help documentation in the QGIS processing tools. 
This first-of-its-kind toolkit provides a comprehensive solution within QGIS, empowering hydrologists to conduct in-depth, granular analyses of riverbanks across a wide range of fluvial system assessment and management approaches. Future development will prioritize integrating these tools into a user-friendly QGIS plugin and incorporating near-real-time hydrological data to enhance predictive capabilities.

How to cite: Di Pietro, G., Stagnitti, M., Pennisi, V., Foti, E., and Musumeci, R. E.: Qgis RiverBanks tools suite for morphological river analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15570, 2025.

The changing climate and increasing anthropogenic pressures on hydrological systems emphasize the need for continuous river flow observations to support water resource management and hydrological research. Conventional monitoring methods, despite their long history, are expensive, intrusive, labor-intensive, and require significant maintenance, making them impractical for remote locations. In recent decades, non-intrusive image velocimetry techniques have emerged as an alternative, enabling surface flow velocity analysis from sequential image frames typically captured by commercial digital cameras. However, these methods have primarily been validated over short durations and have rarely been applied to northern latitude rivers, where hydrology is influenced by seasonal ice and snow cover. Furthermore, the reliance of optical imaging systems on visible wavelengths of light limits their usability in the low-light conditions typical of these regions.

This study employed hourly video data from statically installed thermal infrared cameras to analyze seasonal variations in surface flow velocities and discharges over two years of ice-free flow seasons in two hydrologically distinct northern latitude rivers in Finland. The methodology involved video frame pre-processing with photogrammetric re-projection, surface flow velocity detection using Space-Time Image Velocimetry (STIV) and Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), and validation against in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements. River discharges were computed using the mid-section method with bathymetry data derived from aerial laser scanning and ADCP datasets, and compared with national hydrological observations based on conventional stage-discharge relationships.

Validation of surface flow velocities obtained using the STIV technique showed strong agreement with near-surface ADCP measurements, consistent with findings from earlier studies. In contrast, results from the LSPIV technique were unreliable and insufficient for accurate discharge computations. Daily averaged discharges computed from STIV velocities effectively captured the seasonal flow dynamics at both sites and corresponded acceptable with conventional stage-discharge observations. These findings demonstrate that image velocimetry techniques, particularly STIV, can be used for near-continuous flow observation over extended periods, even in challenging northern latitude conditions. With further refinement to address existing uncertainties, remote sensing observation systems could offer a viable alternative to traditional hydrological monitoring.

How to cite: Heiskanen, H., Lotsari, E., and Välimäki, J.-M.: Assessing seasonal flow characteristics of two northern latitude rivers using static thermal infrared video data and image velocimetry methodology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16586, 2025.

The measurement of streamflow in the world’s rivers is critical to the management of water as a resource and to predicting and managing the impacts of potentially damaging hydrological events such as major floods. Aerial drones capable of capturing high-resolution digital video have shown enormous potential to improve observations of river and floodplain flows and to benefit science and research projects where streamflow must be measured. However, their effectiveness, operational readiness, and the accuracy of observations in UK rivers is at present largely unknown.
This research closes this knowledge gap by undertaking a thorough assessment of the performance and usability of aerial drones over a wide range of locations and conditions. 
Furthermore, as the technique has yet to fully transition from the research domain to operational use, there remain a number of practical challenges and uncertainties over how and where drone-based methods can be applied. This project will identify and address limitations and create further opportunities for the research community to help refine the methods to become effective for widespread operational use. 
Low-cost consumer-grade aerial camera drones were deployed at a range of sites in England and Scotland and the resulting river discharge results compared against reference values obtained with Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) to assess their potential for making accurate measurements of river discharge. A total of 45 comparisons were made at 28 sites, almost all of which were hydrometric river flow gauging stations. At some sites, measurements were made at more than one location.
The drones used were low-cost consumer-grade models available from electronics and photography stores for between €500 and €1200 – orders of magnitude cheaper than traditional discharge measurement tools and equipment. 

How to cite: Everard, N. and Shaw, A.: The UKCEH DroneFlow project: Assessing the potential of drone-based velocimetry across a range of UK river types and flow conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17286, 2025.

EGU25-17550 | Orals | HS1.2.4

The new WMO Expert Team on Hydrometry and its mandate 

Libor Ducháček and Salvador Peña-Haro and the Expert Team on Hydrometry

The new WMO Expert Team on Hydrometry and its mandate

Prepared for EGU 2025 in Vienna (April 2025) and HS1.2.1 Session on Innovative Technologies and Approaches in Hydrological Monitoring

 

Libor Ducháček, Salvador Peña-Haro, Elizabeth Jamieson, Tommaso Abrate, Jérôme Le Coz

 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) seeks to provide the framework for international cooperation to advance meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and related environmental services, to improve well-being of all. Within are several working groups and expert teams like the newly established Expert Team on Hydrometry (ET-Hydrometry).

 

The Expert Team on Hydrometry evolved from Project X (the short name for the WMO group titled the Assessment of the Performance of Flow Measurement Instruments and Techniques), which was established in 2008 and focused on assessing flow measurement instrumentation and measurement methodologies, through the development of literature reviews, the collection of data and reports, intercomparison events and activities, etc., and to make the relevant outputs (reports, guidance, best practices, software, etc.) available to Hydrological Services around the world.

 

In 2024, the Expert Team on Hydrometry (ET-Hydrometry) was established (to replace Project X) under the direction of the Chair of the Standing Committee for Measurement Instrumentation and Traceability (SC-MINT), under the WMO Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Information Systems (INFCOM).

 

The overall objectives of ET-Hydrometry remains the same as the former Project X, but with an expanded scope beyond flow measurement instrument and techniques to encompass a broad number of hydrometric (water level and flow) activities and parameters. As well, with the growing need to support at a practical and operational level the implementation of new innovative technologies (particularly those coming from the WMO HydroHub initiative), there is an important role for ET-Hydrometry to play with establishing assessment methodologies and technology transition pathways for the validation and adoption of new technologies and methods. Furthermore, ET-Hydrometry will encourage and promote guidance material and standardized approaches that are freely available and accessible to all wherever possible. Both established and innovative hydrometric instrumentation and methodologies are to be considered, including lower cost and lower tech alternatives to traditional approaches.

 

In 2025, the primary objective of the expert group is to finalize guidance for organizing acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) regattas and similar hydrometric intercomparison events. These events are highly valuable to National Hydrological Services (NHSs) as they facilitate the mutual comparison and verification of commonly used instruments for streamflow measurements under natural (field) conditions. These intercomparison events also aim to foster collaboration and encourage the exchange of technical knowledge and fieldwork expertise among participants. The results from these events can also provide valuable datasets for the advanced analyses of instrument performance and determining discharge measurement uncertainty.

How to cite: Ducháček, L. and Peña-Haro, S. and the Expert Team on Hydrometry: The new WMO Expert Team on Hydrometry and its mandate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17550, 2025.

EGU25-17606 | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Cost-Effective and high-resolution Bathymetric Mapping in Rivers: Leveraging Sentinel-2 and the Band-Ratio Algorithm 

Fabio Viola, Abdul Azeez Saleem, and Giorgia Verri

Accurate bathymetric mapping is essential for a wide range of applications, including coastal management, navigation, hydrodynamical modeling, and environmental monitoring. Traditional methods such as sonar and LIDAR surveys, while precise, are often cost-prohibitive, time-consuming, and limited in spatial coverage, particularly for remote or inaccessible areas. This study explores the application of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (about 10m resolution) combined with the band-ratio algorithm as a high-resolution and cost-effective approach to estimating bathymetry in riverine environments. The Rhone river, a critical waterway in the Mediterranean region, has been selected as case study due to its environmental and economic significance.

The band-ratio algorithm utilizes the differential attenuation of light in the blue and green spectral bands to estimate water depth. Sentinel-2’s high spatial resolution and multispectral capabilities make it an ideal source for this method. A key aspect of this study was the evaluation of several atmospheric correction techniques to preprocess the satellite images by mitigating atmospheric interference  and ensuring accurate reflectance values. The tested correction methods included QGIS Dark Object Subtraction (DOS), ACOLITE Dark Spectrum Fitting (DSF), ACOLITE Exponential Rayleigh (EXP), and the C2RCC processor in ESA’s SNAP software. These methods were compared to identify the optimal approach for handling the optically complex waters of the study area.

EMODnet bathymetry data in the shelf off the Rhone river mouth was used to train the band-ratio algorithm through regression models that related the computed band-ratio index to observed water depths. The accuracy of the derived bathymetry was assessed using statistical metrics, including root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R²), mean bias, and mean absolute error (MAE).

A subset of the Sentinel-2 images has been selected based on cloud cover, water clarity, and temporal relevance to the study period and among them the data acquired on September 11, 2022, provided the most accurate results. This image achieved an R² value of 0.8, an RMSE of 0.79 meters, and an index of agreement of 0.88 for depths ranging from 0 to 10 meters. These results demonstrate that the combined use of Sentinel-2 imagery (after proper atmospheric correction) and the band-ratio algorithm can yield reliable bathymetric estimates in shallow, moderately turbid river environments.

How to cite: Viola, F., Saleem, A. A., and Verri, G.: Cost-Effective and high-resolution Bathymetric Mapping in Rivers: Leveraging Sentinel-2 and the Band-Ratio Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17606, 2025.

EGU25-17836 | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Use of UAS and space born hydrometric data to improve flood modelling along the Torne river in northern Sweden 

David Gustafsson, Clara Greve Villaro, Louise Petersson Wårdh, Daniel Wennerberg, Viktor Fagerström, Zhen Zhou, Freja Damgaard Christensen, Sune Nielsen, Daniel Cendagorta, Maria Jose Escorihuela, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein

In this study we explore the potential to inform a nation-wide high-resolution hydraulic model used for flood risk forecasting, using Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) hydrometry surveys and satellite altimetry. Drone-based data on bathymetry, water surface elevation, slope and discharge was collected along a 50 km flood-prone part of the Torne river, located on the border between Sweden and Finland during a low flow period in September 2024. Cross-section profiles of bathymetry, water surface velocity and elevation were sampled at about 1 km distance. Along river profiles of water surface elevation were collected both with the UAS surveys, as well as from the SWOT satellite mission for the survey period and previous historic data back to April 2023.

The Lisflood-FP model was previously set up at a 5x5 m2 resolution for all rivers in Sweden with an upstream area larger than 50 km2. To make this possible, the model setup was split into around 13000 sub-models based on the existing sub-basin delineation of the hydrological model used for discharge predictions (S-HYPE). Each Lisflood-FP sub-model was calibrated separately using observations of water level along the local river reach derived from the national laser-scanning data and the corresponding discharge predicted by the hydrological model at the dates of the laser-scanning of the area. In most sub-models, this meant that calibration was made using only one set of discharge and water level data. Additionally, several assumptions were made in lack of more information regarding the river bathymetry and downstream boundary conditions. 

Based on the UAS and satellite altimetry data, we will demonstrate the potential to improve the previously setup hydraulic model with regard to flood risk assessment, in particular the ability to predict a recent flood event during the spring flood 2023. The UAS and altimetry data is used to improve the representation of river bathymetry, downstream boundary condition (slope), as well as impact of additional along river water surface elevation data for model calibration.

How to cite: Gustafsson, D., Greve Villaro, C., Petersson Wårdh, L., Wennerberg, D., Fagerström, V., Zhou, Z., Damgaard Christensen, F., Nielsen, S., Cendagorta, D., Escorihuela, M. J., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: Use of UAS and space born hydrometric data to improve flood modelling along the Torne river in northern Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17836, 2025.

EGU25-18048 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.4

Deep learning for surface flow velocimetry 

James Tlhomole, Graham Hughes, Mingrui Zhang, and Matthew Piggott

Deep learning methods have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art velocity estimation across synthetic computer vision benchmarks and particle image datasets. Images acquired in real environments however, present additional challenges such as seeding sparsity, time-varying seeding morphology, imperfect lighting, camera stability and orientation. Therefore, we evaluate the performance of deep learning based velocity estimation methods across a range of real hydrodynamic images and compare with classical methods. We employ a hydrodynamics laboratory dataset featuring a variety of flow types and two open-source aerial river footage datasets from field campaigns. Our investigation explores three deep learning approaches which utilise different operating principles; recurrent all-pairs-field transforms (RAFT), a physics-informed approach and an unsupervised learning approach (UnLiteFlowNet-PIV). Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of the unsupervised method for environmental flow velocimetry, where ground truth data sources are unavailable for supervised model training.

How to cite: Tlhomole, J., Hughes, G., Zhang, M., and Piggott, M.: Deep learning for surface flow velocimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18048, 2025.

EGU25-18081 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4

Preliminary study on the detection of unnoticed changes in stage discharge relationships 

Benjamin Meyer, Pascal Horton, and Bettina Schaefli

Reliable discharge data is a key requirement of hydrological studies, yet previous research has primarily focused on detecting sensor errors and outliers. Undetected changes in stage discharge relationships and the resulting discrepancy between the actual and measured discharge have received significantly less attention. The present study aims to contribute to closing this research gap by developing a detection routine for unnoticed changes in stage discharge relationships. In a first step, classical statistical methods are tested. In a subsequent step, a machine learning approach is evaluated and contrasted with the statistical methods.  The study is conducted on the two Swiss rivers, Aare and Reuss, which comprise 41 gauged subcatchments.

How to cite: Meyer, B., Horton, P., and Schaefli, B.: Preliminary study on the detection of unnoticed changes in stage discharge relationships, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18081, 2025.

EGU25-19184 | Orals | HS1.2.4

Digital Twins for Hydrology 

Anandharuban Panchanathan, Alessandro Novellino, Majdi Mansour, Carl Watson, Johanna Scheidegger, Andrew Barkwith, Lindsey McEwen, Helen Underhill, Rike Becker, Wouter Buytaert, and Thomas Coulthard

Digital Twins (DT) are a dynamic virtual representation of a system and have been widely used in engineering and industry. A key advantage of DT technology is its ability to quickly capture and visualize large spatially disparate data sources and to combine them with numerical modelling to replicate systems in real time as well as provide near time forecasts and predictions. Here we present a pilot DT, FLOODTWIN, built for water-related hazard forecasting and decision-making in the first instance for Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire (UK), a region heavily impacted by several hydrometeorological hazards including groundwater, surface water, river and coastal flooding. This federated cyber-physical infrastructure ecosystem was conceptualized using interconnected systems including a programme of Earth Observation (EO), sensor and network integration, modelling, data infrastructure development and stakeholder engagement. Significant outcomes of FLOODTWIN include the integration of EO and sensor data, a combined ground/surface water model geared towards decision making, development of a real-time digital hub for assessing, analysing, storing, passing and serving data and longitudinal professional stakeholder engagement through co-creation of project tools. This interdisciplinary study helps to improve the efficiency, resilience, and sustainability of a new evidence-base to underpin improved multi-agency decision-making in flood risk management - with possible foci including past flood review, nowcasting and future planning.

How to cite: Panchanathan, A., Novellino, A., Mansour, M., Watson, C., Scheidegger, J., Barkwith, A., McEwen, L., Underhill, H., Becker, R., Buytaert, W., and Coulthard, T.: Digital Twins for Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19184, 2025.

EGU25-19896 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.4 | Highlight

Contactless river discharge surveying with UAS hydrometry: Performance evaluation using a large and diverse set of river cross sections 

Xinqi Hu, Zhen Zhou, Farhad Bahmanpouri, Ye Tuo, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, David Gustafsson, Wennerberg Daniel, Karl Broich, Fabian Merk, Markus Disse, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein

River discharge plays a crucial role in hydrologic studies and water resource management. Accurate discharge estimations enable significant advancements in scientific research and water-related decision-making processes. Given that discharge is the product of flow area and flow velocity, traditional in situ measurements of river discharge typically require detailed data on river water level, river bathymetry, and the bulk velocity of the river cross-section. However, such manual measurements are time-consuming and impractical in certain situations, such as rivers in remote, hard-to-access regions or those experiencing extreme high-flow events. With the increasing availability of technical and computational resources, remote sensing offers significant potential for improving discharge estimation. Among these technologies, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) have emerged as a valuable solution for improving discharge estimation. Their low cost, high accuracy, and ability to cover large areas make them particularly effective for monitoring in remote or hard-to-access locations. While numerous studies have developed and demonstrated the feasibility of UAS-based discharge estimation algorithms, their evaluations are often limited to specific sites. Thus, questions remain regarding the adaptability of these algorithms across diverse river systems.

Funded by European Union's Horizon Europe project UAWOS (Unoccupied Airborne Water Observing System), This work focuses on evaluating the performance of UAS-based discharge estimation algorithms across a diverse set of cross-sections to enhance their generalizability. Specifically, this work seeks to address the following key questions: 1, how well the discharge algorithm performs based on UAS velocimetry, bathymetry and water surface elevation across different cross-sections? 2, which input datasets and river characteristics may limit the performance, and how sensitive they are? 3, how can we improve the discharge estimation strategies?

To answer the questions above, we applied several bulk velocity estimation models on UAS hydrometry parameters to calculate the river discharge among various types of rivers: Rønne Å River (Sweden), Isar River (Germany), Po River (Italy), Orco River (Italy), and Torne River (Sweden). We utilized various in situ discharge measurements to assess the accuracy of our algorithms and investigated how specific cross-sectional properties affect performance. We further systematic analysed the uncertainty from the inputs and models, and discovered strategies to optimize the discharge estimation results by utilizing Bayesian inference. Overall, this study shows that advanced UAS hydrometry technique is an accurate and reliable way for river discharge estimation, providing valuable insights for hydrological studies and water resource management.

How to cite: Hu, X., Zhou, Z., Bahmanpouri, F., Tuo, Y., Tarpanelli, A., Barbetta, S., Gustafsson, D., Daniel, W., Broich, K., Merk, F., Disse, M., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: Contactless river discharge surveying with UAS hydrometry: Performance evaluation using a large and diverse set of river cross sections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19896, 2025.

EGU25-20007 | Orals | HS1.2.4

RIMORPHIS – A platform for discovering and processing river morphology data 

Venkatesh Merwade, Marian Muste, Ibrahim Demir, Amanda Cox, and Toby Minear

Information on river shape, bed morphology and sediment load are critical to help inform research and management issues related to river channels. However, such information is not easily accessible and/or available in the public domain. RIMORPHIS (River Morphology Information System) fills this information gap by providing a web platform for aggregating, storing, sharing and analyzing river related scientific data. Additionally, it serves as a clearing house for river morphology data to help improve our overall understanding of rivers’ health using scientifically-rendered datasets. This presentation will provide an overview of RIMORPHIS, including its capabilities to access publicly available data in usable form, process and visualize river morphology data, interact with other river data repositories and interoperate with other community resources such as CUAHSI HydroShare. RIMORPHIS provides several tools for scientific analysis, including coordinate transformation of bathymetry points from cartesian coordinates to channel fitted coordinates, creating optimal configuration of cross-sections from irregularly spaced bathymetry points, generating bathymetry mesh, and creation of synthetic bathymetry using conceptual and deep learning models. Overall, RIMORPHIS aims to advance river morphology research by not only providing data to the community but also tools to process the data and produce new information.

How to cite: Merwade, V., Muste, M., Demir, I., Cox, A., and Minear, T.: RIMORPHIS – A platform for discovering and processing river morphology data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20007, 2025.

EGU25-1310 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.6

Extracting water elevation profile extraction for narrow rivers from the SWOT Pixel Cloud 

Nicolas Gasnier and Lionel Zawadzki

The SWOT satellite, launched 2022, carries the KaRIn swath altimeter that provides two-dimensional maps of water surface elevation (WSE), using interferometric processing of bistatic SAR images pairs. The first level of available WSE product is the pixel cloud, which contains one geolocated point with the derived WSE for each water pixel in the SAR images.

Derived products are also generated and distributed for every for each of the river and lakes in the corresponding prior database.

The high signal level on water surfaces in the SWOT images allows the WSE to be retrieved in smaller water structures, such as rivers or canals less than 50m wide. Although the standard lake and river products are not available for these small structures, valuable information can still be extracted from the pixel cloud.

Extending the preliminary work presented in [Zawadzki et al, 2024], we have developed open-source tools to retrieve the WSE profile along linear features for which exogenous information is available. For example, the linear feature corresponding to a small river in the OpenStreetMap database can be used to extract the time series of its WSE profile. Further hydrologically relevant information can then be derived from the profile and its temporal evolution.

We will present results to illustrate the possibilities and limitations of the proposed method, as well as recommendations for improving the water surface elevation profile estimation for small hydrological targets in difficult environments.

 

 Zawadzki, L., Gasnier, N., Fjortoft, R., Pena Luque, S., Desroches, D., Picot, N., and Barroso, T.: On the potential of monitoring small water structures with SWOT, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17205, 2024.

https://github.com/SWOT-community/PixCDust

SWOT data are available on both hydroweb.next and PO.DAAC portals.

How to cite: Gasnier, N. and Zawadzki, L.: Extracting water elevation profile extraction for narrow rivers from the SWOT Pixel Cloud, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1310, 2025.

EGU25-3545 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.6 | Highlight

Rivers and Tides: a first global analysis from the SWOT satellite mission 

Michael Hart-Davis, Daniel Scherer, Christian Schwatke, Richard Ray, and Audrey Sawyer

The land-sea interaction of water is a complex system crucial for a wide range of biogeochemical phenomena, ranging from compound flooding to feeding patterns to pollution distribution. Ocean tides are a natural phenomenon that plays a significant role in the dynamics of water within the land-ocean continuum. Observing the propagation of ocean tides into inland water systems on a global scale is challenging. Although in-situ gauges are regularly deployed and maintained, the spatial distribution both in individual river systems and across all global rivers is insufficient to study the tidal influence on a global scale. In the coastal and open ocean regions, tidal modelling efforts have successfully relied on conventional nadir altimetry for decades, which has resulted in the refinement of tidal predictions throughout the global oceans. However, producing reliable estimations within river systems and inland water bodies is particularly challenging due to land contamination of radar returns, especially in rivers with smaller river widths. The recently launched SWOT satellite provides wide-swath measurements at unprecedented scales, which are aimed at producing water level measurements across all global water bodies. These data have already proved to be particularly useful for the study of ocean tides at fine spatial scales within complex coastal regions, with early results indicating clear avenues for advancement in tidal research, including in inland waters (Hart-Davis et al. 2024). 

This presentation introduces the estimation of tides within river systems based on the SWOT hydrological products. Tidal constituents are estimated based on the pixel cloud and RiverSP products and validated against in-situ river and tide gauges. Based on these findings, a global atlas of tidal influence is presented for the first time, describing the extent to which tides propagate or influence river systems. These findings, which are based on a combination of the Cal/Val and science orbit of SWOT, demonstrate a clear added value of the SWOT data processing in allowing for the advancing of tidal knowledge in regions typically challenging to resolve. 



Hart‐Davis, M.G., Andersen, O.B., Ray, R.D., Zaron, E.D., Schwatke, C., Arildsen, R.L., Dettmering, D. and Nielsen, K., 2024. Tides in complex coastal regions: Early case studies from wide‐swath SWOT measurements. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(20), p.e2024GL109983.

How to cite: Hart-Davis, M., Scherer, D., Schwatke, C., Ray, R., and Sawyer, A.: Rivers and Tides: a first global analysis from the SWOT satellite mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3545, 2025.

EGU25-6244 | Orals | HS1.2.6

Preliminary analysis of SWOT over Low Elevation Coastal Zones: challenges and solutions 

Mohammad J. Tourian, Omid Elmi, Danyang Zhao, and Junyang Gou

The SWOT KaRIn instrument provides revolutionary observations for quantifying surface water storage but faces several challenges in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ). Water bodies in these regions, such as estuaries, often feature intricate channel networks and complex terrain, with the highly dynamic nature of water surfaces, driven by factors such as tides and wind, impairing SWOT KaRIn’s ability to accurately measure water levels and extent. Vegetation cover further complicates observations, as the Ka-band wavelength used by KaRIn exhibits limited penetration through emergent vegetation, such as mangroves and salt marshes, which are prevalent in LECZs. Complex tropospheric conditions also reduce measurement accuracy, as the low-frequency radiometer on SWOT struggles to provide reliable tropospheric path delay corrections near or over land. Furthermore, the typically low topographic roughness in LECZs exacerbates layover errors, particularly at high incidence angles, where radar signals from multiple locations interfere.

To evaluate these challenges, we analyzed SWOT data over the LECZ of Germany and identified its limitations in such environments. Many of these challenges are evident in the data, leading to inconsistencies in measurements and errors in the original classification provided by the SWOT PIXC data. To address these issues, we tested various methods, including deep learning-based approaches. Specifically, we evaluated two modeling schemes: one without using the estimated height from SWOT and another incorporating height. In the first scheme, we integrated SWOT InSAR measurements and auxiliary data, trained the model using open water and land pixels, and applied it to the data to improve the classification of water and land in pixel cloud points. We assessed the performance of our refined classification by generating river profiles from the newly classified data, comparing them with profiles based on the original classification, and calculating the root mean square (RMS) of variations. A more consistent (less variable) river profile indicates better results. Our findings show that the refined classification significantly enhances vector products for both rivers and lakes, enabling more precise estimation of surface water storage in LECZs.

How to cite: Tourian, M. J., Elmi, O., Zhao, D., and Gou, J.: Preliminary analysis of SWOT over Low Elevation Coastal Zones: challenges and solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6244, 2025.

EGU25-9331 | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Lake geoid correction grids based on the SWOT Raster product 

Karina Nielsen, Simon Köhn, Ole Andersen, and Jiang Liguang

It is well known that the geoid signals over large lakes in mountainous regions are not well modeled. This introduces errors in the satellite altimetry-based water level estimates. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission (SWOT) launched in December 2022 provides almost complete spatial coverage, which makes it possible to detect spatial signals over lakes, for example.

Here we apply a state-space model to separate the assumed static signal from a potentially unmodeled geoid signal and the temporal variation in the water level. As data input, we use the SWOT 250m raster product. To evaluate how well the spatial and temporal signals are separated we compare the SWOT-based water level time series with time series based on other altimetry data sets.

The procedure is tested for a set of different lakes, including the African rift lakes and Lake Titicaca. Here, we based the solution on available data at the current time; however, the solutions are expected to improve as more data becomes available. The R code will be available to the user.

 

How to cite: Nielsen, K., Köhn, S., Andersen, O., and Liguang, J.: Lake geoid correction grids based on the SWOT Raster product, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9331, 2025.

EGU25-11293 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Daily river discharge estimation using SWOT data 

Siqi Ke, Mohammad J. Tourian, Nico Sneeuw, Renato Prata de Moraes Frasson, Rodrigo C. D. Paiva, Michael Durand, Colin Gleason, Omid Elmi, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, and Cedric David

The SWOT satellite mission is the first to conduct a global survey of the Earth’s surface waters, measuring water surface height, river width, and water surface slope, based on which river discharge is estimated. At mid-latitudes, the repeat orbit design of SWOT only allows a sampling of twice per repeat cycle, which is considered too low for most hydrological applications. We develop a linear dynamic system that ingests SWOT observations for daily discharge estimation over continuous reaches in a single-branch river network to overcome this limitation. The linear dynamic system includes a process model based on a physically-based spatiotemporal discharge correlation model and observation equations utilizing SWOT products. We solve this dynamic system through a Kalman filter, which is executed in the time domain to obtain daily discharge. Building on the strong performance of the method with synthetic data, we apply this algorithm using SWOT measurements in the Rhine River, where we validate its performance by comparing the estimates against gauge discharge data. These efforts aim to unlock the potential of SWOT data for daily discharge estimation in diverse river networks globally.

How to cite: Ke, S., J. Tourian, M., Sneeuw, N., Prata de Moraes Frasson, R., C. D. Paiva, R., Durand, M., Gleason, C., Elmi, O., Malaterre, P.-O., and David, C.: Daily river discharge estimation using SWOT data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11293, 2025.

Spatiotemporally consistent quantification of river discharge is a persistent problem in the field of hydrology. The current generation of technologically advanced satellite sensors provide reliable alternatives to the conventional gauge monitoring system. In this study, we utilize the Water Surface Elevation (WSE) measurements from the recently released river products from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. We integrate the reach WSE measurements into a distributed hydrodynamic model through an assimilation system to study its contribution towards enhancing the modelled hydrodynamic variables over an entire river basin. Assimilation is implemented using both synthetic and real SWOT reach WSE measurements, where the former is generated using a new method involving the CNES Large Scale SWOT Hydrology Simulator and the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL) RiverObs toolkit. The study using synthetic data is conducted for a 3-year period, whereas that using real measurements are implemented based on the availability during the science phase of the mission. Real measurements from the SWOT mission are affected by the presence of outliers that are filtered prior to assimilation to ensure consistent improvements in the output variables corresponding to each satellite overpass date over the study region. SWOT reaches are accurately connected to the river network grid before initiating the assimilated model run. Results reveal notable improvement in modelled discharge after assimilation, with the NSE values exceeding 0.6 and 0.4 for the synthetic and real SWOT data-based experiments, respectively. The improvements, though pronounced towards the downstream reaches, are evident at all validation stations across the basin.

How to cite: Soman, M. K. and Indu, J.: Evaluating the potential of reach water surface elevation product from the SWOT mission in assimilated hydrodynamic modelling., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12598, 2025.

Accurate river bathymetry is essential for hydrodynamic flood modelling, as river channels convey substantial water volumes that critically influence flow dynamics. However, obtaining reliable bathymetric data remains a formidable challenge due to logistical constraints and uncertainties associated with traditional field surveys and remote sensing methods. Gradually varied flow (GVF) solvers have emerged as a promising alternative, leveraging readily observable parameters-river width, water surface elevation, and discharge-to estimate riverbed elevations. With the advent of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, the availability of high-resolution water surface elevation observations at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales presents new opportunities to enhance GVF-based bathymetric estimation methods. These solvers have demonstrated superior performance compared to solutions based on hydraulic geometry and uniform flow solvers using Manning's equation, particularly in capturing spatial variability in natural river systems. Rather than reconstructing the full cross-sectional profile, GVF solvers focus on estimating an average riverbed elevation at each cross section, balancing the need for accurate channel representation with the practical constraints of data acquisition.

This research investigates the potential of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) as a complementary approach to GVF solvers for riverbed elevation estimation. GVF solvers apply physical principles of gradually varied flow, optimizing the riverbed profile to minimize discrepancies between observed and simulated water surface elevations. PINNs, in contrast, incorporate governing physical laws into neural network architectures, allowing for accurate predictions from sparse datasets while maintaining physical realism. By comparing the performance, accuracy, and limitations of both methods, this study aims to assess their relative effectiveness in addressing the complexities of river bathymetry. The findings of this study will contribute to the development of more effective and efficient methods for riverbed elevation estimation, enhancing our understanding of river dynamics and improving hydrodynamic modeling capabilities.

How to cite: Rong, Y., Bates, P., and Neal, J.: Enhancing Riverbed Elevation Estimation: Comparison of Gradually Varied Flow Solvers and Physics-Informed Neural Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13328, 2025.

EGU25-13352 | Orals | HS1.2.6

The current state of the SWOT discharge product  

Colin Gleason, Michael Durand, Kevin Larnier, and Pierre-Olivier Malaterre

The SWOT Discharge Algorithm Working Group (DAWG) is part of the SWOT Science Team and is charged with creating and maintaining SWOT discharge products. Here, DAWG members will present the latest discharge data to be generated the week before the meeting, and we will discuss the skill, spatiotemporal coverage, and context of these discharge estimates. We will ideally discuss both constrained (using gauges for calibration/priors) and unconstrained (no gauges used) discharge products and the differences therein. Preliminary results at the time of writing (Jan 2025) show mean discharges that conform to expectations of global river patterns while also revealing interesting deviations from prior knowledge. Skill is largely consistent with pre launch expectations, with bias dominating the error budget and strong correlation as validated at gauges. The presentation will convey the most up to date results, which have advanced rapidly since SWOT data were made public and will likely change again before this talk is given. Finally, SWOT’s spatiotemporal resolution has always meant that SWOT alone cannot be a panacea for discharge in ungauged basins- we will discuss what SWOT does and doesn’t bring to basin-scale analyses.

How to cite: Gleason, C., Durand, M., Larnier, K., and Malaterre, P.-O.: The current state of the SWOT discharge product , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13352, 2025.

EGU25-13360 | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Flood inundation modelling using the Surface Water Ocean Topography Mission 

Jeffrey Neal, Stephen Chuter, Izzy Probyn, and Paul Bates

Over the last few decades flood risk management has become increasingly reliant on simulation of flood inundation from physical models of river-floodplain systems. Information from these models takes the form of flood extent and depth maps, and can directly influence decisions in sectors such as humanitarian response, insurance and urban planning. However,  it is expensive to create accurate models, due to input data requirements, resulting in relatively low-quality simulations along most rivers. One of the major issues is river bathymetry (the land below the water surface) because this cannot be measured remotely and at a large scale.

One way to overcome this issue would be to develop ‘inverse’ models that estimate bathymetry from water surfaces, which are much more observable. In the past, suitable water height measurements have been a limiting factor, however, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography mission will for the first time measure all global river water surfaces wider than ~50 m. This paper develops methods to estimate river bathymetry from SWOT data, evaluating the SWOT height observations and river bathymetry estimates for a small (40-70m wide) UK river. SWOT data is sufficiently accurate to estimate bathymetry that when used for flood modelling could simulate flood extents and depths with similar accuracy to a traditional model based on local river survey data.  

How to cite: Neal, J., Chuter, S., Probyn, I., and Bates, P.: Flood inundation modelling using the Surface Water Ocean Topography Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13360, 2025.

The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) frequency on the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission is Ka-band: 35.75 GHz, which equates to an approximately 8mm wavelength. This is a relatively high-frequency system compared with the C-band on the now-ubiquitous Sentinel-1 or the L-band from UAVSAR and soon-to-launch NISAR Mission. Lower frequencies are the preferred method for most land surface studies because they have all-weather capabilities, and they can penetrate vegetation to reveal sub-canopy ground deformations, they make water detection easy as water surfaces are uniform; lower frequencies make these observations easier, higher frequencies make these observations harder. As a high-frequency system, SWOT was never designed to penetrate canopies or examine ground deformations. Rather, the high frequency from SWOT was selected for its potential to produce very high-resolution observations and have strong sensitivities to surface water, with the primary goals of measuring water surface elevations and water surface extents with high accuracy. Knowing that the high-frequency system would be sensitive to noise from vegetative land components, the mission requirements firmly asserted that the aim was to observe purely open water environments with high accuracy; vegetated water surfaces were to be assessed independently from the official SWOT open water algorithm goals. Recent studies being published have demonstrated that, as promised, SWOT can produce high-accuracy water surface elevations and water surface extents for the majority of cases, including in some sparsely vegetated wetlands. While there are still many studies to be conducted on SWOT open water, this presentation examines other phenomenological attributes of SWOT observations. As a swath mapper, SWOT's observations are acquired for 64km x 64km tiles covering both land and water. As a high-frequency system, with sensitivities to <1cm features, SWOT is not expected to penetrate the canopy-- it should observe it; SWOT is not expected to make water surfaces appear uniform-- it should highlight water surface roughness. Prior studies have demonstrated SWOT sensitivities related to 1) wind-driven water surface roughness, 2) vegetation structure, and 3) sub-canopy ponding and soil moisture. This presentation highlights progress in examining SWOT observations for More Than Just Surface Water Topography in support of improving SWOT discharge algorithms and other critical water cycle algorithms, such as for evaporation, transpiration, and canopy interception, for further reaching improvements to water resources research.

How to cite: Fayne, J.: More Than Just Surface Water Topography: Phenomenology Studies for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14496, 2025.

EGU25-15404 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Evaluation of SWOT Vector Node Products Over Indian River Basins 

Rucha Sanjay Deshpande and Tajdarul Hassan Syed

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, a collaboration between the US and the French Space agencies, aims to monitor ocean surface and inland waters continuously. The Ka-band radar interferometer onboard the satellite provides two-dimensional measurements of water surface elevations across two 50-km wide swaths. The SWOT mission is crucial for land hydrology as it offers significant improvements over past satellite altimetry missions with its high accuracy, wide spatial coverage, and high resolution. Our study comprehensively evaluates the accuracy of water level measurements from the SWOT Level 2 River Single-Pass Vector Node Data Product over five major river basins in India, namely Narmada, Godavari, Mahanadi, Cauvery, and Krishna. We assess the accuracy of SWOT data by comparing SWOT water elevation measurements with the water levels derived from the in-situ gauge datasets at corresponding dates and locations. We select 82 in-situ gauge stations, each with at least eight valid measurements, to evaluate the SWOT data by calculating the r2, RMSE, and MAE parameters for each station. Across all five basins, the median r2, RMSE, and MAE values at each station are 0.81, 0.43 m, and 0.33 m, respectively, showcasing the high accuracy of SWOT water elevation measurements over most observation points. Furthermore, we validate the SWOT water elevation levels against measurements from other satellite altimetry missions to observe its consistency across various observation platforms.

How to cite: Deshpande, R. S. and Syed, T. H.: Evaluation of SWOT Vector Node Products Over Indian River Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15404, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15404, 2025.

EGU25-16054 | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Evaluating the Applicability of SWOT Satellite Data for Reservoir Surface Area and Water Level Monitoring 

Sungwoo Lee, Shinhyeon Cho, and Minha Choi

Global warming accelerates climate change, increasing the frequency of floods and droughts, thereby emphasizing the importance of developing monitoring technologies. Therefore, the importance of continuous water resources monitoring is essential. Satellite remote sensing data is an effective tool for water resources monitoring. Monitoring water resources using conventional satellite imagery requires complex calculations and data preprocessing. The recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite provides information on the height and distribution of inland water bodies without extra computational effort. In this study, validation of SWOT water surface data using Sentinel-1 imagery-based water mask and in-situ water level. For validation, a confusion matrix-based metric was used (accuracy, precision, recall, IoU). As a result, SWOT satellite data demonstrated high performance, achieving an accuracy of over 0.90 in monitoring reservoir surface areas and detecting water level changes. These findings indicate that strengths of SWOT data have potential to efficiently monitoring water resources. Furthermore, the results provide valuable insights into advancing hydrological research.

 

Keywords: SWOT, Water Body Detection, Water Level, Confusion Matrix

 

Acknowledgment

This research was supported by the BK21 FOUR (Fostering Outstanding Universities for Research) funded by the Ministry of Education (MOE, Korea) and National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF). This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) as 「Innovative Talent Education Program for Smart City」. This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Research and Development on the Technology for Securing the Water Resources Stability in Response to Future Change Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)(RS-2024-00332300). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00416443). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-2022R1A2C2010266).

How to cite: Lee, S., Cho, S., and Choi, M.: Evaluating the Applicability of SWOT Satellite Data for Reservoir Surface Area and Water Level Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16054, 2025.

EGU25-17488 | ECS | Orals | HS1.2.6

Interpolating missing pixels of the SWOT inland water extent based on a hydro-topography-based floodability index 

Megumi Watanabe, Victor Pellet, and Filipe Aires

One expectation for the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite is that it can provide information on surface waters, including beneath clouds and possibly vegetation, at high spatial resolution which optical sensors cannot achieve. However, SWOT observation errors do exist, e.g., due to specular reflection. It is necessary to filter these errors. Those observation errors can amount up to 44% of the considered pixels in this study. They drastically limits the use of the SWOT data. Consequently, filtered pixels need to be filled in in some way, to obtain clean and spatially continuous water extent maps from SWOT. We developed an approach to interpolate SWOT data so that all the SWOT observation time steps can be exploited, focusing on a part of the Negro River in the Amazon basin. First, pixels are filtered using echo nadir and specular ringing of the water area fraction variable, from the L2 KaRIn high-rate raster product under conditions of low coherence, degraded classification information, and incident angle. Second, we interpolate the filtered pixels using a topography-based “Floodability Index” (FI), a proxy for the probability of a pixel being inundated compared to its adjacent pixels (Nguyen and Aires, 2023). We then determined spatially varying FI-thresholds to determine the water/non water pixels, based either on a ROC-curve analysis or on a water area-based optimization. The quality of this spatial interpolation is measured using a confusion matrix comparing the actual SWOT data and the interpolated ones. Our interpolation method improves the true positive water detection rate from 73% to 84% when compared to the simple adjunction of permanent water. The new interpolated SWOT water maps can better capture the seasonality of flooded/saturated or forested riverine wetlands and peatlands, based on the “The Global Lakes and Wetlands Database” (Lehner et al., 2024). The new, interpolated and completed SWOT water maps can more easily be used by the hydrology community. We expect in the future to improve the interpolation strategy and attempt to apply it at the global scale.

Nguyen, T. H., & Aires, F. (2023). A global topography-and hydrography-based floodability index for the downscaling, analysis, and data-fusion of surface water. Journal of Hydrology, 620, 129406.

Lehner, B., Anand, M., Fluet-Chouinard, E., Tan, F., Aires, F., Allen, G. H., ... & Thieme, M. (2024). Mapping the world’s inland surface waters: An update to the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD v2). Earth System Science Data Discussions, 2024, 1-49.

How to cite: Watanabe, M., Pellet, V., and Aires, F.: Interpolating missing pixels of the SWOT inland water extent based on a hydro-topography-based floodability index, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17488, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17488, 2025.

EGU25-18132 | Orals | HS1.2.6

The SWOT mission : a milestone in CNES hydrology program 

Delphine Leroux and Hind Oubanas

Water scarcity is a major global challenge, exacerbated by climate change and extreme events. While ground-based measurements remain essential, they are often limited by geographical and financial constraints. Satellite observations complement these efforts, providing essential data across vast areas with consistent spatio-temporal sampling; an essential resource for effective water management.

The French space agency CNES has been actively engaged in space-based hydrology for several decades, building on a robust 30-year partnership with NASA. Among its most notable recent advancements is the launch of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in December 2022, marking a true revolution in hydrology. With its wide swath and high-resolution altimetry, SWOT provides unprecedented coverage and accuracy in monitoring water heights at the global scale. The first results have exceeded expectations, demonstrating remarkable success.

One of the key strategies at CNES for hydrology is the integration of satellite data within a global Earth Observation system approach. The Data Terra research infrastructure is central to this vision, offering a platform for sharing and processing data from various missions. A key component of this is the THEIA platform, which focuses on continental surfaces, including hydrology through hydroweb.next thematic hub. This hub provides access to SWOT data alongside numerous other sources. The SWOT downstream program has been a key success, from fostering a strong science team over the years to developing new applications tailored to various end users.

Looking towards the future, CNES is making substantial investments in the next generation of space-based hydrological observations, including the S3NG-T (Sentinel-3 New Generation - Topography) mission within the Copernicus program, which will build upon the wide swath concept pioneered by SWOT.

How to cite: Leroux, D. and Oubanas, H.: The SWOT mission : a milestone in CNES hydrology program, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18132, 2025.

EGU25-19750 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

The Influence of Lake Size on the Accuracy of Satellite-Derived Water Level Measurements (SWOT) 

David Israel Lindao Caizaguano and Fernando Jaramillo

The accuracy of satellite-derived water surface elevation (WSE) measurements is crucial for hydrological studies and water resource management. This research investigates how lake area influences the accuracy of such measurements by analyzing preliminary data from 53 Swedish lakes, categorized by size: small (<1 km²), medium (<10 km²), large (<100 km²), and extra-large (>100 km²).

WSE measurements were obtained from the first year of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission's science orbit, specifically using the Pixel Cloud Product, which provides high-resolution observations of Earth's surface water bodies. The SWOT mission employs Ka-band radar interferometry to capture detailed spatial and temporal variations in WSE, aiming to enhance our understanding of global hydrology.

We compared the SWOT-derived WSE data with high-accuracy in-situ observations provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) between August 2023 and May 2024. Many of these in-situ observations were collected from rivers near the 53 Swedish lakes, which might contribute to the analysis of river systems in addition to lakes.

Initial findings reveal a significant dependency of measurement accuracy on lake size. Smaller lakes exhibit higher Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in satellite-derived WSE measurements compared to larger lakes. These results underscore the impact of lake area on the reliability of satellite-based hydrological data.

While preliminary, this study offers valuable insights for refining satellite hydrology techniques and enhancing their applicability to smaller and more complex lake systems. The implications of our findings suggest the need for improved algorithms or calibration methods to increase the accuracy of SWOT measurements in small water bodies, benefiting water resource management and hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Lindao Caizaguano, D. I. and Jaramillo, F.: The Influence of Lake Size on the Accuracy of Satellite-Derived Water Level Measurements (SWOT), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19750, 2025.

EGU25-20338 | Orals | HS1.2.6

Validating SWOT water elevations in a dynamic estuary environment 

Paul Bates, Youtong Rong, Jeff Neal, Paul Bell, Dougal Lichtman, and Steve Chuter

Monitoring water levels in dynamic estuary environments is exceptionally challenging: ground stations are sparse and traditional nadir altimeters have wide (~100km) track spacing and cannot capture spatial dynamics.  The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission uses an imaging Ka-band radar interferometer to address these issues by providing WSE measurements over estuarine areas at high spatial resolution with unprecedented accuracy and precision. However, the vertical accuracies of these advanced systems remain largely unverified, underscoring the necessity for standardized and repeatable field procedures to validate remotely sensed water elevations. To that end, the Bristol Channel and the Severn River-Estuary has been selected for an extreme edge case for validation studies due to its ~14m tidal range, the second largest in the world. Between April and June 2023, two airborne LiDAR systems collected five independent sets of WSE measurements concurrent with SWOT overpasses. These measurements encompassed a wide range of tidal scenarios, from low tides at -3.6 m relative to the EGM2008 geoid to high tides reaching 5.5 m. LiDAR surveys were conducted along and perpendicular to the SWOT trajectory, covering approximately 35 km and 55 km, respectively, each with a swath width of about 1km. Initial raster-by-raster comparison between SWOT Level-2 HR Raster-100m datasets and LiDAR points (within a distance of 50 m and a UTC time difference of less than 20 s, for Lidar WSE values between 2.1 and 5.2 m) demonstrated a good performance, with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.96 and an RMSE of 0.27 m.  Subsequent correction of LiDAR water levels to the time of the SWOT overpass using the spatial field of water height change from a 500m resolution coastal ocean model allowed a much larger sample for comparison and yielded an RMSEs of 0.16m and 0.40 for the Raster 100m data and SWOT pixel cloud (PIXC) data respectively. Comparison of SWOT data to ground tide gauge elevations resulted in an RMSE of 0.13m.  These results underscore the significant potential for enhanced accuracy in measuring water surface elevations in dynamic coastal regions through the application of Ka-band radar interferometry.

How to cite: Bates, P., Rong, Y., Neal, J., Bell, P., Lichtman, D., and Chuter, S.: Validating SWOT water elevations in a dynamic estuary environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20338, 2025.

EGU25-20346 | Posters on site | HS1.2.6

Hydrological experiment over Ganga River to validate hydraulic parameters within the swath of SWOT mission 

Shard Chander, Ritesh Agrawal, Amit Dubey, Shishir Gaur, Anurag Ohri, and Praveen Gupta

River discharge is one of the important hydrological essential climate variable (ECV) that is a key for understanding the water cycle of the catchment contributing to the river behavior and prevention strategies for efficient water resources. Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is first of its kind to estimate river discharge exclusively from remotely sensed hydraulic data. The present study demonstrated potential of SWOT mission KaRin swath observations to estimate water surface elevations (WSE), river width and slope over Ganga River, India. A field campaign was carried out in synchronous with the SWOT satellite (track 10) overpass during the Cal-Val phase of the mission. More than 4000 kinematic observation were collected using DGPS to monitor spatial variability of the water stage within the 120 km of swath altimetry. The elevation profile over water surface were estimated and observed the variation in water level from 61 to 70 m with an average slope of 8.69 cm/km. Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) was also operated every 10 km along the river similar to the reach wise discharge product for calibration/validation purpose.. This study generated a reliable dataset to validate the SWOT observations along with the estimated river discharge data set of the Ganga River near Varanasi with the aim of enhancing the accuracy of swath altimeter products. SWOT pixel cloud (SWOT_L2_HR_PIXC) data from KaRIn instrument was processed during Cal-Val phase form Cycle 484 (April 8, 2023) to Cycle 502 (April 26, 2023). For delineating the water extent from the Level-2 PIXC dataset, we have made use of a high-resolution national wetland inventory and assessment database of 1:12500 scale, so that small tributaries and nearby wetlands can also be consider for accuracy assessments over smaller water bodies. The PIXC product contains only a small fraction of the pixels in the interferogram (mainly water pixels and pixels in floodplains) that was further processed to estimate the river hydraulic parameters such as river slope, water level, and other related parameters for each pixel. The generated water elevation maps were validated with GPS measured elevations and similar order of variation in the water levels was observed by SWOT mission, with root mean square error of the order of 25 cm. The SWOT derived river slope (8.89 cm/ Km) was also in good agreement with the GPS observations. We have further analyzed the science phase data close to the virtual station near Varanasi from January 2024 to November 2024. The average water stage was observed to nearly 67.53 meter with peak-to-peak variation of the order of 8 meters. The river width during this period was observed to be varying between 400-3000 meter. Initial results from swath altimetry measurements have added a new dimension in the field of land hydrology and are essential for understanding hydrological processes. 

How to cite: Chander, S., Agrawal, R., Dubey, A., Gaur, S., Ohri, A., and Gupta, P.: Hydrological experiment over Ganga River to validate hydraulic parameters within the swath of SWOT mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20346, 2025.

EGU25-21272 | Orals | HS1.2.6

Exploring the Potential of SWOT Altimetry for Retrieving Lake Ice Thickness 

Jennifer Fatt and Grant Gunn

Lakes play a critical role as climate change proxies and cover a significant portion of the northern latitude landscape. Lake ice phenology offers valuable insight into changing climate patterns, yet in situ observations of lake ice have declined substantially in recent decades (Li et al., 2023). This observational gap highlights the growing importance of remote sensing as a tool for understanding and monitoring lake ice (Tang et al., 2023). Northern and remote communities particularly rely on lake ice quality, quantity, and thickness for transportation on ice roads, subsistence activities, and recreational use (Knopp et al., 2022). There has been limited research exploring the use of satellite altimetry for the retrieval and estimation of lake ice thickness (LIT), however its efficacy and utility has been highlighted in recent studies (Beckers et al., 2017; Mayers et al., 2018; Li et al., 2023; Mangilli et al., 2024). Ku-band SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) altimetry presents an opportunity to retrieve ice properties and directly measure ice thickness. This study assesses the retrieval of LIT from SAR altimeters aboard legacy sensors Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6 over the ice seasons from 2019 to 2024 on Kluane Lake, Yukon and compares it to the estimated LIT acquired from the SWOT altimeter analysis. LIT can be determined using Ku-band altimetry through the analysis of double-peaked waveforms characteristic to lake ice formed by the interaction of the radar signal with the ice interfaces (Beckers et al., 2017). The utilization of SWOT altimetry has the potential to advance the understanding of lake ice processes and provide valuable datasets for climate and hydrological models as well as overall resource management. This presentation discusses the potential applications of SWOT altimetry in lake ice thickness retrieval, emphasizing its capacity to fill critical data gaps and contribute to our understanding of lakes as dynamic systems in a changing climate.

Beckers, J. F., Casey, J. A., & Haas, C. (2017). Retrievals of lake ice thickness from great slave lake and great bear lake using CryoSat-2. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 55(7), 3708-3720. 

Knopp, J. A., Levenstein, B., Watson, A., Ivanova, I., & Lento, J. (2022). Systematic review of documented Indigenous Knowledge of freshwater biodiversity in the circumpolar Arctic. Freshwater Biology, 67(1), 194–209.

Li, X., Long, D., Cui, Y., Liu, T., Lu, J., Hamouda, M. A., & Mohamed, M. M. (2023). Ice thickness and water level estimation for ice-covered lakes with satellite altimetry waveforms and backscattering coefficients. Cryosphere, 17(1), 349–369.

Mangilli, A., Duguay, C. R., Murfitt, J., Moreau, T., Amraoui, S., Mugunthan, J. S., Thibaut, P., & Donlon, C. (2024). Improving the Estimation of Lake Ice Thickness with High-Resolution Radar Altimetry Data. Remote Sensing, 16(14), 2510.

Mayers, D., & Ruf, C. (2018, July). Measuring ice thickness with CYGNSS altimetry. In IGARSS 2018-2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (pp. 8535-8538). IEEE. 

Tang, F., Chen, P., An, Z., Xiong, M., Chen, H., & Qiu, L. (2023). A Dual-Threshold Algorithm for Ice-Covered Lake Water Level Retrieval Using Sentinel-3 SAR Altimetry Waveforms. Sensors, 23(24), Article 24.

How to cite: Fatt, J. and Gunn, G.: Exploring the Potential of SWOT Altimetry for Retrieving Lake Ice Thickness, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21272, 2025.

HS1.3 – Cross-cutting hydrological sessions

EGU25-2223 * | Posters on site | HS1.3.1 | Highlight

Evolution in the Understanding of the Characteristics of Extreme Hydrological Events 

Günter Blöschl

Advances in the understanding of hydrology over the last century have been driven by the evolving needs of society and technological opportunities: new ideas are generated by hydrologists as they address society's demands with the technologies of their time. This paper specifically discusses the evolution of concepts related to flood runoff generation through different mechanisms: excess infiltration, excess saturation, subsurface flow, and more recently, the emphasis on hydrological connectivity. In particular, it highlights the ideas regarding the transition from moderate flood events to extreme ones. The evolution of concepts for quantifying flood peaks through extreme value statistics is briefly summarized. Finally, the talk outlines the evolution of approaches to combine statistics with hydrological processes, starting from the theory of derived distributions and including flood frequency hydrology and regional process hydrology, in order to complete regional statistical hydrology. It also evaluates the main driving factors, depending on the characteristics of climate and catchments. It is argued that the growing societal expectations for safety and the clear human influence on the hydrological cycle now more than ever require a process-based approach to the estimation of extreme floods.

How to cite: Blöschl, G.: Evolution in the Understanding of the Characteristics of Extreme Hydrological Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2223, 2025.

EGU25-3625 | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

The oldest instrumental hydrological and meteorological records in Prague as a basis for the resimulation of the flood of February 1784 

Libor Elleder, Jakub Krejčí, Jolana Šírová, and Hana Stehlikova

In 2025, Czech hydrology celebrates several significant anniversaries. In 1775, the uninterrupted temperature series in the Klementinum Observatory in Prague began, in 1825 daily observations of water levels in Prague began, and in 1875 the hydrological service in Prague was established (Elleder, 2019). As far as 1775 is concerned, this is more about meteorological observations, but even here we find references to floods and droughts in the observation diaries, and the earliest records of rainfall and snow heights. Here, we focus on the first decade of observations (1775– 1785), when the extreme flood of February 1784 occurred. In 1781, the first water gauge in Prague was established by the Klementinum Observatory when it was incorporated into the Societas Meteorologica Palatina (SMP). However, these were only occasional observations of water levels. The floods of 1782, 1783 and 1784 were partially documented with the help of this water gauge. For the time of the flood (February 1784) we have incomplete records only for the beginning and end of the flood. The course of the water levels is still known relatively accurately in Prague, Beroun, Dresden and then Magdeburg.  The hydrograph of this extreme flood in Prague was reconstructed from indirect evidence of water levels (Elleder, 2010). The rate of water rise was enormous, up to 30 cm per hour. Using the Aqualog system, standardly used for hydrological forecasting, we have now attempted a hydrological re-simulation of this flood in the context of the entire Vltava basin in front of Prague. This means the scenarios generated only from measurements of temperature, air pressure and partly precipitation in Prague, or in relatively near stations Regensburg, Budapest, Zagan, Erfurt and Mannheim. Problems arose in obtaining rain and snowfall data due to uncertainties regarding the recording of precipitation in Prague. To better understand how precipitation is recorded, we attempted to consider measurements at other SMP observatory sites.   We documented the conditions of the severe winter that preceded the flood, including the likely ice thickness, water value of the snow, and partial rainfall. Using re-simulations with the Aqualogic modelling system, we obtained an approximate agreement of the water level courses in Beroun and Prague in terms of time, culmination and flood volume. The steep rise in levels could not be explained.  The flood in its entire European context is gradually being included in the Maps of Extreme Floods - MEF (Elleder and Šírová, 2023). We started with a reanalysis of the 1784 flood by showing reconstructions of major European floods, where documentary data are collected in advance in the MEF 2020 application. To date it is the most significant winter flood in Prague.

References:

Elleder, L., (2010) Reconstruction of the 1784 flood hydrograph for the Vltava River in Prague, Czech Republic. Global and Planetary Change 70, 117–124.

Elleder, L. 2019. A. R. Harlacher and his Role in founding of Czech Hydrological Service in Prague in 1875, https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-7860.pdf.

Elleder, L. Šírová, J. (2023) MEF application- the extreme floods are already in maps!

        https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU23/EGU23-3160.html.

How to cite: Elleder, L., Krejčí, J., Šírová, J., and Stehlikova, H.: The oldest instrumental hydrological and meteorological records in Prague as a basis for the resimulation of the flood of February 1784, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3625, 2025.

EGU25-7775 | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

Direct derivation of an alternative variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum method from the diffusive wave equation 

Muthiah Perumal and Madhusudana Rao Chintalacheruvu

The well-known Muskingum-Cunge method and the variable parameter Muskingum-Cunge-Todini method (Todini 2007) have been developed by matching the diffusion coefficient of the numerical analogue of the kinematic wave equation with that of the physical diffusive wave equation governing the one dimensional flood wave propagation in channels. It is shown in this study that an alternative variable parameter Muskingum method can be directly derived from the diffusive wave equation without resorting to the matched diffusivity approach as followed in the above mentioned two methods. A comparative evaluation of the routing performances of this method with those of very two similar methods, known as the variable parameter Muskingum-Cunge-Todini (MCT) method as proposed by Todini (2007), and another Variable Parameter McCarthy-Muskingum (VPMM) method proposed by Perumal and Price (2013) is made in the study. For the purpose of comparative evaluation, all these three methods use the same set of benchmark solutions obtained by routing a given inflow hydrograph in twenty five trapezoidal channels each having the same bed width and the side slope, but each of them characterized by unique combinations of bed slopes and Manning’s roughness coefficients. Standard evaluation measures as available in the literature were used in assessing the capabilities of each of the three methods in reproducing the benchmark solutions obtained by routing the given hypothetical inflow hydrograph by the HEC-RAS model for a reach length of 100 km in each of these channels. All the three methods show equal performances in reproducing the benchmark solutions with NSE≳0.99, when the inflow hydrograph is characterized by the water surface gradient +(1/S0)∂y/∂x≤0.5. But for the routing cases characterized by +(1/S0)∂y/∂x>0.5, the MCT method fails to route the inflow hydrograph, while the other two methods yield results with diminished performance levels (NSE<0.99), though the proposed method performs better than the VPMM method for these cases.

How to cite: Perumal, M. and Chintalacheruvu, M. R.: Direct derivation of an alternative variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum method from the diffusive wave equation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7775, 2025.

EGU25-8059 | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

The 20-year history of HEPEX - Enhancing hydrological forecasting through strategic innovations 

Ilias Pechlivanidis, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Andy Wood and the team

Creating forecast systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons is crucial for a variety of fields, from meteorology and climate science to business and public policy. The priorities for developing such systems may vary depending on the specific domain and objectives. Over the past 20 years, the international community of practice known as the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) has been seeking to advance the science and practice of hydrological ensemble prediction and its use in impact- and risk-based decision-making. HEPEX is a volunteer-based community, active since 2004, with over 600 members (hepex.org.au/). It has been promoting knowledge utilizing cutting-edge techniques and data to innovate hydrological forecasting methods, products and systems, and improve services for users in the water-related sectors. Here, we present an overview of the history of HEPEX and reflect on the key priorities recently proposed by the community for (co-) creating hydrological forecast systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons. We highlight that hydrological forecasts have advanced through rigorous data management that incorporates diverse, high-quality data sources and the application of cutting-edge AI/ML techniques to improve predictive accuracy. HEPEX has played a critical role in enhancing the reliability of water management globally by standardizing ensemble forecasting and fostering a broader framework for forecast evaluation. This complements HEPEX's broader initiative to bridge the gap between research-to-operations practice, making forecasting solutions both practical and accessible. Finally, we highlight how efforts supporting the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative can contribute to the development of robust early warning systems through extensive global training and the sharing of technology. The integration of advanced science, user-centric methods and global collaboration can provide a solid framework for improving the prediction and management of hydrological extremes, aligning forecasting systems with the dynamic needs of water resource management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Pechlivanidis, I., Ramos, M.-H., and Wood, A. and the team: The 20-year history of HEPEX - Enhancing hydrological forecasting through strategic innovations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8059, 2025.

In the 21st century, numerical models are a widespread tool for understanding, visualizing, and simulating hydrological processes, from alpine streams to tropical deltas. A large variety of different models is widely available and offers extensive possibilities for customization to researchers and decision-makers alike. While many challenges remain - such as proper parameterization or data-sparsity in many regions of the globe that renders calibration and validation difficult - numerical models now have a large community of users and the computational infrastructure needed to run them is readily available to most users. 

None of this was the case when the Mekong Delta Model was developed in the early 1960s. Numerical models were in their infancy and few institutions had access to computers. The Mekong Delta Model was a pioneering effort, funded by UNESCO. Its aim was to simulate the impact and assess the viability of a dam across the Tonle Sap river in Cambodia, proposed as part of the plan of the UN’s Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) to support economic development in Southeast Asia. It was the first computational model built to represent a deltaic area and served not only as a proof of concept, but also as a basis on which many key figures in the numerical modelling community later developed their own work. 

This study seeks to trace the genesis of this groundbreaking model and to explore its impact on the development of computational approaches in hydrology from the 1960s onwards. It is based on an extensive bibliographical survey, archival research in the Archives d’Outre Mer in Aix-en-Provence and the UNESCO archives in Paris, and an in-person interview with a member of the original team at SOGREAH (Société Grenobloise d'Études et d'Applications Hydrauliques), which built the model. The results outline the story of the model, from the contentious tender process in which it prevailed against more established alternative approaches, over the often dangerous data gathering and harmonization stage (set against the background of the Vietnam War), to the influence it had on the community of modellers in places such as the Danish Hydraulic Institute and the University of Colorado. 

How to cite: Orieschnig, C. A.: The Mekong Delta Model: Pioneering Numerical Approaches and Lasting Impacts on Computational Hydrology , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10501, 2025.

EGU25-11535 | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

A historical perspective of variable source area theories in hydrological modeling 

Fabrizio Fenicia, Cristina Prieto, and Dmitri Kavetski

A key challenge in hydrological modeling is representing the relationship between catchment wetness and hydrograph response. The concept of variable source area has been a significant influence in this area, proposing that a source area, which is dynamically shaped by catchment wetness, controls the amount of precipitation contributing to hydrograph peaks during rainfall events. This study explores two foundational theories of variable source area that have guided the development of hydrological models. The first, the Interacting Storage Elements theory, serves as the basis for models such as Xinanjiang, PDM, Arno, and VIC. The second, the Topographic Index theory, underpins the Topmodel approach. Although these theories differ in their conceptual models, they share a common goal of analyzing local hydrological processes which, through specific assumptions, lead to a functional relationship between average storage and source area at the catchment scale, providing clarity on the role of catchment properties in shaping this relationship. This study critically reviews and compares these theories, examining their application in early hydrological models, and highlights underlying similarities that may have been overlooked due to differences in presentation, notation, and numerical implementation. Additionally, the study investigates why these theories remain effective despite differences between theoretical assumptions and actual catchment behavior.

How to cite: Fenicia, F., Prieto, C., and Kavetski, D.: A historical perspective of variable source area theories in hydrological modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11535, 2025.

EGU25-16864 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

The relationship between mean hillslope length and drainage density: from the Horton equation to dynamic river networks 

Alessandro Cenzon, Nicola Durighetto, and Gianluca Botter
This study investigates the concept of mean hillslope length, defined as the average distance from all points within a river basin to the nearest channel. This measure is essential for understanding key hydro-morphological processes, such as water flow, erosion, and ecosystem dynamics. In the literature, hillslope length and the associated drainage density are often linked through the widely accepted Horton relationship, which suggests that the mean hillslope length is half the reciprocal of the drainage density. Although the Horton equation was derived using an idealized V-shaped valley geometry, it has been successfully applied in many practical settings to capture the relationship between hillslope length and the extent of the channel network. In this study, we propose a novel analytical framework that is used to derive a closed-form expression for mean hillslope length based on the total length of the channel network. This approach is applicable to both individual watersheds with dynamic stream networks and across diverse catchments, and it includes the Horton relationship as an asymptotic case (i.e., when river networks are sufficiently long). The method was tested on data from 15 river catchments across Europe and the USA, showing strong performance in all cases. Our analysis demonstrates that, while the Horton model is extremely accurate for high drainage densities, it cannot be applied in cases where the total channel network length is smaller than the square root of the catchment area, as it significantly overestimates the mean hillslope length in such circumstances. Our new approach offers a more accurate and reliable alternative to the traditional Horton formula while remaining easy to use. The proposed method is particularly valuable in cases involving short or dry river networks, such as dynamic headwater catchments or non-perennial rivers. This research provides a novel method for estimating mean hillslope lengths, enhancing the understanding of key hydrological processes in river basins for both scientists and engineers.

How to cite: Cenzon, A., Durighetto, N., and Botter, G.: The relationship between mean hillslope length and drainage density: from the Horton equation to dynamic river networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16864, 2025.

EGU25-17883 | Posters on site | HS1.3.1

Emergence, applications and further development of the NAM model 

Henrik Madsen, Gregers Jørgensen, Alexandra Murray, and Dan Rosbjerg

The lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model NAM was published in Nordic Hydrology (now Hydrology Research) in 1973 in the same issue of the journal as the Swedish HBV model. It was developed at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), but its worldwide applications can be ascribed primarily to DHI. DHI adopted the model and implemented it in their river modelling software, and it has been used in numerous consulting projects and further developed to become an element in distributed hydrological models.

Like HBV, NAM is a soil-moisture accounting model. The overall structure will be briefly presented, and the main difference to HBV highlighted. Also, its role as an element in numerous operational flood forecasting systems worldwide and, more recently, as part of DHI’s global hydrological model will be touched upon. Finally, a discussion of recent developments of machine-learning based rainfall-runoff models will be discussed, which perhaps will bring the era of the lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models to an end.

How to cite: Madsen, H., Jørgensen, G., Murray, A., and Rosbjerg, D.: Emergence, applications and further development of the NAM model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17883, 2025.

EGU25-1039 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Perovskite-based catalyst for sustainable wastewater treatment and seawater desalination through microbial desalination cell 

Srishti Mishra, Brajesh K. Dubey, and Makarand M. Ghangrekar

The bioelectrochemical systems are sustainable solutions to face energy, water, and wastewater-related challenges. A three-chambered bioelectrochemical system, known as a microbial desalination cell (MDC), operates on the combined principles of a microbial fuel cell and electrodialysis. This self-powered system is capable of simultaneously treating wastewater and desalinating seawater. In the anodic compartment, microbial digestion of organic substrate treats wastewater. At the same time, the potential generation across the anode and cathode, resulting from electron production during the degradation process, leads to seawater desalination. Additionally, the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in the cathodic chamber significantly contributes to the overall performance of the system. Enhancing the ORR of the cell through catalyst incorporation has been shown to improve the system’s performance. The addition of a Sr-Mn-based perovskite, an abundant transition metal oxide compound, was synthesized using a facile method to be used as a cathode catalyst. The performance of the catalyzed reactor was compared to a non-catalyzed system with carbon electrodes. The addition of a catalyst resulted in a COD removal of 81.1 ± 0.5%, which was 35.5% higher than that recorded in the scenario without a catalyst. Similarly, in terms of desalination, the MDC with catalyzed cathode exhibited an 83.3 ± 1.2% desalination efficiency compared to the control MDC (45.76 ± 1.4%). This improved electrocatalytic performance of the system due to the catalyst was explained through the electrochemical analysis of the synthesized perovskite. The non-reliance of the MDC system on any external power source makes it a self-sustained and green technology for performing wastewater treatment and saltwater desalination, contributing to the Sustainable Development Goal 6 of clean water and sanitation.

How to cite: Mishra, S., Dubey, B. K., and Ghangrekar, M. M.: Perovskite-based catalyst for sustainable wastewater treatment and seawater desalination through microbial desalination cell, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1039, 2025.

Urbanization has exacerbated urban heat island (UHI) effects, posing challenges to thermal comfort, energy efficiency, and urban resilience. Urban green and blue infrastructure (UGBI) offers effective cooling solutions; however, their performance varies significantly across urban morphology, climate zones, and local contexts. This review synthesized 203 empirical studies conducted in 102 cities across 43 countries and 23 Köppen climate zones, offering a comprehensive evaluation of UGBI cooling intensity, spatial reach, and influencing factors. We provide three key recommendations to enhance climate adaptation: (1)establish a standardized evaluation framework for UGBI cooling effects, integrating data collection, modeling approaches, and indicator systems to enhance cross-study comparability; (2)analyze variability in UGBI performance across diverse climatic and urban contexts, highlighting how factors such as vegetation density, urban geometry, and socioeconomic constraints influence cooling intensity and attenuation; (3) explore synergistic interactions between UGBI, urban morphology, and innovative materials, proposing integrated strategies for sustainable urban planning. By bridging critical gaps in cross-climatic comparisons and offering actionable insights, this review provided practical guidance for enhancing urban resilience to climate change.

How to cite: Yang, M., He, J., and Lu, T.: Urban green and blue infrastructure and microclimate regulation: a systematic review of urban heat island and urban planning strategies , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1902, 2025.

EGU25-4850 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Citizen perception of and activation for implementing Nature-based Solutions (NbS) against heat stress in the city of Cologne, Germany 

Sarah Ehresmann, Louise Moraw, Nils Eingrüber, Verena Dlugoß, and Udo Nehren

Climate change impacts increasingly affect human wellbeing worldwide, particularly through consequences of extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation, flooding and heat. Densely populated areas face greater exposure to these hazards than rural areas. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect exacerbates the impacts of heat in cities. Nature-based solutions (NbS) such as green and blue infrastructure can be used to adapt to climate change effects and mitigate urban heat stress as well as extreme precipitation impacts. Adaptation measures like urban green spaces (parks, gardens), street trees, vegetation on buildings (facade, roof greenings), water bodies or grass grid paver unsealings have significant cooling effects, enhance water retention and thus can increase thermal comfort and flood resilience of urban dwellers. While Cologne is recognized for its abundance of green spaces like the inner and outer `green belt´, there is still potential to improve and expand existing NbS to more effectively mitigate the challenges of climate change and the UHI effect. The successful implementation of additional NbS to address these challenges is dependent on public acceptance as the establishment and maintenance often rely on public participation. As part of the AKT@HoMe Project aiming to analyse the climate change adaptation potential through citizen participation by assessing the willingness to act and operational empowerment of residents in two socioeconomically contrary districts in the city of Cologne, this research is dedicated to analyze the acceptance of and the activation potential for the implementation of NbS.  

To understand residents’ perception of heat stress and the acceptance of NbS in the two districts, we conducted an anonymous survey, achieving over 150 responses. The survey utilized a quantitative, self-administered questionnaire, available in online and paper-based formats. Distribution took place via community events, mailbox inserts, and online platforms between summer 2024 and winter 2024/25. Results show that residents of both districts experienced a high level of heat stress in the past and expect a further increase in future. Preferences for mitigation measures include urban parks and forests, water-permeable pavers, and street trees among other, but also technical, solutions. NbS and hybrid measures are preferred over solely grey measures. Despite a high willingness to act, such as creating and maintaining NbS at home and in the city district, only few of the surveyed residents currently already engage in such activities.  

This gap was further examined through workshops with residents from both districts. Throughout three independent sessions citizen were participating in a three hour `future workshop´, working out future scenarios and options to adapt to UHI in their districts. The findings show that residents see the city government as primarily responsible for implementing NbS but also desire a more active role in the process to foster greater engagement, for example through neighbor groups. This highlights the need for a co-creation process between civil society and the public sector, ensuring that residents can actively contribute to the successful implementation and upkeep of NbS. 

How to cite: Ehresmann, S., Moraw, L., Eingrüber, N., Dlugoß, V., and Nehren, U.: Citizen perception of and activation for implementing Nature-based Solutions (NbS) against heat stress in the city of Cologne, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4850, 2025.

EGU25-5639 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Wastewater treatment in lagoons: a systematic review and a meta-analysis 

Domenica Pangallo

Wastewater treatment in lagoons: a systematic review and a meta-analysis

 

Demetrio Antonio Zema1,*, Paolo S. Calabrò2, Domenica Pangallo1

 

2    Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, AGRARIA Department, Loc. Feo di Vito, I-89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy

1 Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, DICEAM Department, Via Graziella, loc. Feo di Vito, I-89122 Reggio Calabria, Italy

   

Corresponding author: Demetrio Antonio Zema (dzema@unirc.it).

 

Abstract

 

This study has carried out a systematic review of 36 scientific papers (reporting 63 case studies) published in the last 15 years about the treatment of industrial, agri-food and municipal wastewater in lagoons. A concentration of studies from a few countries (Italy, Algeria and Iran) and about municipal wastewater (70% of papers) was revealed by the bibliographic analysis. Aeration was supplied in more than 50% of case studies; the storage capacity of lagoons (adopted as a measure of size) was extremely variable (over seven orders of magnitude), while their depth was generally lower than a few metres. The efficiency of lagoon treatments at removing COD was in a wide range (25-98%). Very few studies analysed the energy intensity of treatments in lagoons. The meta-analysis applied to a further selection of 10 papers with 29 case studies revealed significant differences in pH and dissolved oxygen concentration, due to aeration or type of treated wastewater. Treatment efficiency was higher in aerated lagoons compared to non-aerated systems, and did not depend on the type of treated wastewater. Based on the analysis of the reviewed papers, an urgent research need on this topic arises, mainly due to the oldness of most analysed studies. Practical suggestions are given to optimise the depuration performances of lagoons: (i) application of intermittent and night aeration; (ii) reduced air flow rates; (iii) adaptation of microbial biomass to high contents of inhibiting compounds in wastewater; (iv) construction of baffles to keep the planned hydraulic retention time avoiding short-circuit; (v) integration of lagoons with other treatments (e.g., constructed wetlands); (vi) ferti-irrigation of crops with lagoon effluents rather than disposal into water bodies.

 

Keywords: Chemical Oxygen Demand; aeration; dissolved oxygen; agri-food wastewater; municipal wastewater; COD removal rate.

How to cite: Pangallo, D.: Wastewater treatment in lagoons: a systematic review and a meta-analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5639, 2025.

EGU25-9804 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Evaluating the Long-Term Performance of Bioretention Cell: A Five-Year Study from the Prague City Lab 

Petra Maresova and Michal Snehota

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are gaining recognition as increasingly effective strategies to confront the escalating challenges posed by climate change and urbanization. By utilizing natural processes and ecosystems, NbS offers sustainable approaches to enhancing urban resilience, mitigating climate extremes, and improving environmental quality. These solutions, which are a form of blue-green infrastructure include green roofs and bioretention cells. They address critical issues such as flooding, heatwaves, and biodiversity loss while providing additional benefits like improved air quality and recreational spaces.

Within the Horizon Europe project NBSINFRA, the potential of NbS is investigated through City Labs experimental hubs established to implement, monitor, and refine NbS in diverse urban settings. Prague is one of the five City Labs, showcasing innovative NbS projects in collaboration with local stakeholders and institutions. A key site within the Prague City Lab is the University Centre for Energy Efficient Buildings (UCEEB), where advanced NbS technologies, such as green roofs and bioretention cells, are implemented and observed to assess their effectiveness in enhancing urban resilience. The presented study primarily focuses on the hydrological behavior and long-term performance of a small experimental bioretention cell at UCEEB, which serves as a critical component of the Prague City Lab.

This study outlines a five-year experiment conducted on the bioretention cell at UCEEB, designed as a multilayered system with a biofilter composed of 50% sand, 30% compost, and 20% topsoil, sand layer and a drainage layer, planted by perennial vegetation. Bioretention cell is isolated from the surrounding soil by a waterproof membrane and is instrumented by a system of sensors. Four time-domain reflectometry probes monitor soil water contents of biofilter and five tensiometers record the water potential in a biofilter. The amount of a discharge from bioretention cell is recorded by a tipping bucket flowmeter and inflow is measured by rain gauge. Over the course of five years, the study focused on parameters such as water balance, retention capacity, soil water potential, and plant growth to evaluate the cell's hydrological performance and its evolving efficiency.

Results of experimental study and modeling using HYDRUS 2D revealed significant temporal changes in the performance of the bioretention cell. The runoff coefficient decreased over time due to increased evapotranspiration. Peak flow reductions ranged from 30% to 100% for individual rainfall epizodes. Median runoff delays were approximately 50 minutes, and peak flow delays varied from 0 to 100 minutes, indicating increasing variability over time. Inverse modeling in Hydrus 2D demonstrated a fivefold increase in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the biofilter, alongside with a decrease in the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the sand layer. These findings offer valuable insights into the long-term performance of bioretention cells and their contributory role in advancing sustainable urban stormwater management through NbS.

How to cite: Maresova, P. and Snehota, M.: Evaluating the Long-Term Performance of Bioretention Cell: A Five-Year Study from the Prague City Lab, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9804, 2025.

EGU25-16856 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Prototyping NBS: a living wall system to enhance the built environment resilience in mountain areas 

Carlotta Fasano, Roberto Bosio, Andrea Cagninei, Fulvio Boano, and Elisa Costamagna

In recent decades, mountain villages have experienced significant depopulation, that, coupled with the devastating effects of climate change, has led to conditions of decay and neglect. Therefore, it is essential to implement measures aimed at promoting repopulation, enhancing tourism, and ensuring hydrogeological safety in these areas. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NBS) represent a promising approach for the restoration of such locations, offering a range of services to address emerging societal and development challenges especially climate change, water security, human health, disaster risk and socio-economic development.

To address these needs, a greywater recovery and management systems has been developed within the framework of the NBS4MOV project [1]. The project is developing a stand-alone green wall technology to treat and reuse greywater (i.e. the wastewater generated from domestic activities excluding toilet flush) in buildings. This technology is made up of 3 levels of greenery and a collecting tank as a base. Each level is composed by 4 pots containing a mixture of perlite and coconut fibre and different plant species: Carex morrowii, Hedera helix and Lonicera nitida.

The pots are arranged to form 4 columns, each one representing an independent vertical flow intermittently supplied by greywater. The entire structure has been constructed primarily using durable and recyclable materials, assembled without adhesives to allow for disassembly and reuse of components at the end of their lifecycle, complying with circular economy principles.

The preliminary experimental phase included laboratory tests to assess the performance of the technology before field installation. Initially, tests were conducted on the substrate at varying moisture levels to evaluate its drainage capacity. This information is crucial for sizing the system based on the volume of greywater to be treated. Subsequently, as the prototype is intended for installation in a mountainous environment, tests were conducted in a cold chamber to evaluate the effects of external temperatures on system performance.

Results highlight that the limited thermal insulation of the structure and the small size of the pots led to rapid freezing. However, the presence of water in the substrate (with a moisture content of 50%) was found to delay freezing times. Possible solutions to address these challenges are currently under investigation.

Despite these challenges, the technology, designed as a living wall with a high level of customization, can be integrated with buildings, enhancing their architectural value, and adapting to the specific characteristics of the installation site. For these reasons, the system holds significant potential for the regeneration and development of resilient areas, not only in isolated rural villages but also in more urbanized contexts, with direct implications at urban and social levels.

 

[1] NBS4MOV is the acronym for Nature-based Solutions for Mountain Villages, and it is part of the project NODES which has received funding from the MUR – M4C2 1.5 of PNRR with grant agreement no. ECS00000036

How to cite: Fasano, C., Bosio, R., Cagninei, A., Boano, F., and Costamagna, E.: Prototyping NBS: a living wall system to enhance the built environment resilience in mountain areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16856, 2025.

EGU25-16889 | Posters on site | HS1.3.3

Designing Resilient Blue-Green Infrastructure: Soil dynamics in Experimental BGI Composites made of Local Natural Resources 

Mirosław Żelazny, Agnieszka Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, Anna Bojarczuk, Łukasz Jelonkiewicz, Mateusz Stolarczyk, Alina Stachurska-Swakoń, and Józef Mitka

Blue-green infrastructure (BGI) provides a comprehensive approach to managing water resources and urban greenery, mimicking natural processes to support sustainable development, mitigate climate change, and improve air and water quality. This study aimed to identify optimal BGI design features by examining the impact of meteorological conditions on soil dynamics in nine experimental BGI composites, constructed with local (marls, brick) and commercial (expanded clay) substrates, and native plant species (grasses, perennials, and subshrubs).

Key soil parameters, including temperature, volumetric water content, electrical conductivity, pot weight, and air temperature beneath the pot, were monitored at 10-minute intervals throughout the growing season, along with meteorological data such as air temperature and precipitation. Substrates were analysed for granulometric composition, physical and chemical properties, and organic matter content.

The temperature buffering effect of vegetation and BGI composites was estimated. ANOVA and post-hoc Scheffé tests were used to identify significant differences in soil properties across BGI composites. Wavelet analysis was applied to detect cyclic patterns in soil parameters and their coherence with meteorological variables, while Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to determine key factors driving soil parameter variability.

The study revealed that plants differ in their ability to regulate soil temperature, with subshrubs being the most effective. Composites containing subshrubs also dampened the daily soil temperature cycle more effectively than those with perennials or grasses. Furthermore, composites with marl substrates provided better bottom temperature buffering compared to those with brick. The PCA analysis revealed that the first two principal components accounted for about 60% of the total variance in soil parameters, with the first component associated with water flux and the second with thermal variability. Differences in cumulative variance among composites highlighted structural variations in substrate and vegetation types.

Wavelet analysis confirmed a strong relationship between soil parameters and meteorological conditions. However, daily amplitudes and short-term fluctuations in soil parameters varied significantly depending on substrate and vegetation type. In particular, the composites containing brick substrate exhibited lower and more transient ion leaching, as well as short-term fluctuations in volumetric soil water content, compared to composites with the marl substrate.

Obtained results provide essential criteria for evaluating and designing BGI composites that prioritise high water retention, low nutrient leaching, and effective thermal buffering, offering valuable insights for developing efficient and resilient BGI systems.

How to cite: Żelazny, M., Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, A., Bojarczuk, A., Jelonkiewicz, Ł., Stolarczyk, M., Stachurska-Swakoń, A., and Mitka, J.: Designing Resilient Blue-Green Infrastructure: Soil dynamics in Experimental BGI Composites made of Local Natural Resources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16889, 2025.

EGU25-2049 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.4

Developing an event-based distributed hydrological model through competing hypotheses and meta-metrics of performance 

Pasquale Perrini, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Vito Iacobellis

Event-scale hydrological modeling applications entail fine temporal discretization, enhanced model components, and carefully refined initial and boundary conditions. However, realistic modeling requires justifying assumptions that influence model complexity and the dominant processes represented for a specific catchment. This process is particularly challenging for distributed hydrological models, which, compared to lumped models, incorporate additional assumptions to account for spatial variability in hydrological processes.

This study demonstrates a modeling approach that uses controlled comparisons and meta-metrics of performance to develop a distributed model for a semi-arid catchment in Southern Italy. From hydrological signatures we hypothesize that in this catchment both Hortonian (infiltration excess) and Dunnian (saturation excess) runoff mechanisms can concurrently appear in hydrograph responses during rainfall events. Our objective is to disentangle these mechanisms and design a model capable of distinguishing between them. We therefore developed four perceptual model architectures representing different runoff generation hypotheses, informed by hydrological signatures, and tested them within a nested catchment framework.

A multi-stage operational test involving the calibration of a meta-objective function and spatial transferability validation was conducted to provide a robust and unequivocal ranking of the best-performing models, exposing unsolved structural problems of competing hypotheses. Assessing the consequences of simulated high flows by replacing 2D Shallow Water equations to a simplified routing scheme reinforces the idea of replacing popular metrics with meta-metrics.

Posterior diagnostics confirmed that the most realistic model structure, as indicated by internal consistency in simulated processes, aligned with the highest meta-metrics performance. Hydrographs comparison and hypotheses falsification further revealed that the dominant runoff mechanisms during consecutive storm events could be clearly disentangled, with Hortonian and Dunnian processes alternating depending on rainfall intensity and soil wetness.

By integrating multiple working hypotheses with enhanced operational testing, our proposed model development approach shows that even with limited observational data, such as sole streamflow measurements within a nested catchment setup, it is possible to identify runoff generation processes in event-scale hydrological applications.

How to cite: Perrini, P., Fenicia, F., and Iacobellis, V.: Developing an event-based distributed hydrological model through competing hypotheses and meta-metrics of performance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2049, 2025.

EGU25-4024 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.4

Reproducibility and Accessibility in Geoscientific Research: Challenges, Solutions, and Community Perspectives 

Konstantin Gregor, Matthew Forrest, Benjamin Meyer, Joao Darela Filho, Urs Schönenberger, Viktor Justo, Karina Bett-Williams, and Anja Rammig

Geoscientific models play a pivotal role in understanding global change impacts on the Earth system and are therefore highly relevant for decision-making. However, their complexity—including the combination of pre-processing, modeling, and post-processing workflows—poses significant challenges to reproducibility and accessibility, even when adhering to FAIR data principles.

Here, we present insights from the land surface modeling community, based on a survey of the 20 dynamic global vegetation models participating in the Global Carbon Project. Our findings reveal substantial room for improvement in software engineering and reproducibility practices and underscore the potential benefits of sharing best practices across modeling communities.

To address these challenges, we highlight tools such as versioning, workflow management systems, containerization, automated documentation, and continuous integration and deployment. These approaches enable reproducible, portable, and automated workflows, ensure code correctness, and facilitate stakeholder access to scientific results.

Finally, we present a showcase of a fully reproducible and portable workflow based on the LPJ-GUESS model, demonstrating how these practices can be implemented and adapted by other modeling communities. This can serve as a resource for improving reproducibility and accessibility, and advancing software engineering standards across geoscientific fields.

How to cite: Gregor, K., Forrest, M., Meyer, B., Darela Filho, J., Schönenberger, U., Justo, V., Bett-Williams, K., and Rammig, A.: Reproducibility and Accessibility in Geoscientific Research: Challenges, Solutions, and Community Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4024, 2025.

EGU25-4135 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Practical application of some new technologies, and the light they shed on model design and model problem decomposition 

Catherine Moore, Wes Kitlasten, and John Doherty

Practical application of some new technologies, and the light they shed on model design and model problem decomposition

New robust efficient modelling technologies are available to quantify the uncertainties associated with model predictions.  We adopt a decision support modelling framework which uses a combination of two of these new technologies, Data Space Inversion and Ensemble Space Inversion.  Using this framework helps answer model design and deployment questions that are critical for a specified decision.  These questions include:

  • What contributes to the uncertainty of what could go wrong with this decision?
  • Where is the information that may reduce this uncertainty?
  • How can this information be best harvested – what model structure, parameterisation, observation weighting strategy, and technologies are most appropriate?
  • How are the consequences of information insufficiency best expressed?

We demonstrate how this modelling framework reveals the predictive accuracy costs of over-fitting to some types of data.  We also identify for a specific prediction which alternative model structures and inversion methods are more appropriate given alternative data sets.

How to cite: Moore, C., Kitlasten, W., and Doherty, J.: Practical application of some new technologies, and the light they shed on model design and model problem decomposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4135, 2025.

EGU25-6421 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

FINAM - is not a model (v1.0): a new Python-based model coupling framework 

Sebastian Müller, Martin Lange, Thomas Fischer, Sara König, Matthias Kelbling, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, and Stephan Thober

We present a new coupling framework named FINAM (short for "FINAM Is Not A Model"). FINAM is designed to facilitate the coupling of models that were developed as stand-alone tools in the first place, and to enable seamless model extensions by wrapping existing models into components with well-specified interfaces. Although established coupling solutions such as YAC (Hanke et al., 2016), ESMF (Collins et al., 2005), or OASIS (Craig et al., 2017) focus on highly parallel workflows, complex data processing, and regridding, FINAM prioritizes usability and flexibility, allowing users to focus on scientific exploration of coupling scenarios rather than technical complexities. FINAM emphasizes ease of use for end users to create, run, and modify model couplings, as well as for model developers to create and maintain components for their models. The framework is particularly suited for applications where rapid prototyping and flexible model extensions are desired. It is primarily targeting environmental models, including ecological models for animal populations, individual-based forest models, field-scale crop models, economical models, as well as hydrologic and hydrogeological models. Python's robust interoperability features further enhance FINAM's capabilities, allowing to wrap and use models written in various programming languages like Fortran, C, C++, Rust, and others. We will describe the main principles and modules of FINAM and presents example workflows to demonstrate its features. These examples range from simple toy models to well-established models like OpenGeoSys and Bodium covering features like bidirectional dependencies, complex model coupling, and spatio-temporal regridding.

Links

  • FINAM website: https://finam.pages.ufz.de
  • FINAM paper preprint: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-144

Refrences

  • Hanke, M., Redler, R., Holfeld, T., and Yastremsky, M.: YAC 1.2.0: new aspects for coupling software in Earth system modelling, Geosci-
    entific Model Development, 9, 2755–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2755-2016, publisher: Copernicus GmbH, 2016.
  • Collins, N., Theurich, G., DeLuca, C., Suarez, M., Trayanov, A., Balaji, V., Li, P., Yang, W., Hill, C., and da Silva, A.: Design and Implemen-
    tation of Components in the Earth System Modeling Framework, The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications,
    19, 341–350, https://doi.org/10.1177/1094342005056120, publisher: SAGE Publications Ltd STM, 2005.
  • Craig, A., Valcke, S., and Coquart, L.: Development and performance of a new version of the OASIS coupler, OASIS3-MCT_3.0, Geoscien-
    tific Model Development, 10, 3297–3308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3297-2017, publisher: Copernicus GmbH, 2017.

How to cite: Müller, S., Lange, M., Fischer, T., König, S., Kelbling, M., Rojas, J. J. L., and Thober, S.: FINAM - is not a model (v1.0): a new Python-based model coupling framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6421, 2025.

EGU25-6927 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

From Events to Insights: Event-Process Based Diagnostics of Hydrological Model Performance 

Larisa Tarasova, Zhenyu Wang, and Ralf Merz

Hydrological models play a crucial role in understanding and managing water resources. However, accurately representing complex streamflow generation processes remains a significant challenge. We introduce an innovative diagnostic framework designed to evaluate process limitations in hydrological models, emphasizing event-based and multi-dimensional assessments. The framework first evaluates model error variability by classifying streamflow events into distinct types (e.g., Snow-or-Ice, Rain-on-Dry, Rain-on-Wet) and leveraging multi-dimensional metrics (i.e., timing and relative magnitude errors). It then assesses the importance of error drivers (e.g., hydrographic properties, model fluxes and states, model inputs, and pre-event errors) using explainable machine learning (XAI). A case study involving 340 German catchments demonstrates the framework's applicability. The results reveal that the majority of model-simulated streamflow events exhibited time delays and magnitude underestimations. Specifically, Rain-on-Dry events showed higher timing errors, while Snow-or-Ice events had larger relative magnitude errors. Furthermore, errors varied across different hydrograph components (pre-event, rising limbs, peaks, and recession limbs) for each event type. Simulated streamflow at all components, especially peaks, was predominantly delayed in timing and underestimated in magnitude in more than 50% of events. Using Random Forest regression with Accumulated Local Effects, the analysis found that pre-event errors are the dominant driver for both timing and relative magnitude errors across all event types. The relative magnitude errors were also strongly affected by hydrograph-related event properties and model fluxes and states for land surface and groundwater dynamics, with these drivers having greater importance for Snow-or-Ice events. This framework enhances diagnostic capabilities, providing a robust tool for advancing hydrological model evaluation and understanding under diverse hydrometeorological conditions.

How to cite: Tarasova, L., Wang, Z., and Merz, R.: From Events to Insights: Event-Process Based Diagnostics of Hydrological Model Performance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6927, 2025.

Hydrology is a cornerstone for non-real-time flood management decision-making in England, underpinning £6bn of investment by the UK Government. Originally published in 1999, the current prevailing methods used operationally are well-known and resource-efficient but were not designed to address contemporary issues relating to climate and land use changes. It is widely considered that alternative approaches would provide us additional evidence for these issues, but innovation is not cascading into operational practice.

To improve the rate of translation of alternative approached from science into practice, this project, part of the Environment Agency’s (England) Flood Hydrology Improvements Programme (FHIP), will take an existing approach and embed it within operational flood management processes. The journey from science to practice will be documented to better understand the barriers that are faced and how they were overcome, looking wider than simply method development to consider ‘quality-of-life’ factors (e.g. user interfaces) and training.

This presentation will showcase the discovery phase of the project. This includes research into: what the user needs and requirements are; the blockages to methods making the leap from science to practice; what can we learn from international practice; what are the best ways to communication uncertainty; and what information about climate change impacts do we need to capture for decision-makers. Future plans will be outlined for the project, including the development of new and novel open-source software to encourage reporting of decision-points and uncertainty in the modelling process.

How to cite: Skinner, C. and Asadullah, A.: Science to Practice: Embedding new hydrology approaches for flood management decision-making., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6993, 2025.

EGU25-7986 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Moving Research Down the Academic Career Scale (MRDACS) 

Rolf Hut and Caitlyn Hall

Hydrology faces critical challenges in reproducibility, accessibility, and collaboration, limiting progress and innovation. We introduce “Moving Research Down the Academic Career Scale” (MRDACS): the idea that work should be reproducible by someone at an earlier career stage and in less time than the original work. We advocate for research tools and methods to be accessible to students and early-career researchers. By embedding Open and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, modular tool design, and user-friendly interfaces, we can lower barriers to reproducibility and foster equitable participation in hydrological research. We will showcase practical strategies to empower researchers at all levels to build on existing work, reducing time spent overcoming technical challenges and enabling deeper focus on innovation. We present our, and our students, science done over the last decade on the eWaterCycle platform to illustrate how we have practically implemented Open and FAIR principles to support MRDACS. This approach advances equity and inclusivity while strengthening collaboration across academic and professional communities. By prioritising reproducibility and transparency, we can create a more resilient and impactful hydrological science field equipped to tackle urgent global challenges.


At the time of abstract submission, this work has been submitted to, and is in review in, Philosophical Transactions A.

How to cite: Hut, R. and Hall, C.: Moving Research Down the Academic Career Scale (MRDACS), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7986, 2025.

EGU25-9493 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Presenting MESMER v1 - Integrating Multiple Climate Emulator Modules Into One Sustainable Research Software Package 

Victoria Bauer, Mathias Hauser, Yann Quilcaille, Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia Seneviratne

Earth system models are able to simulate the physical processes that govern the Earth's climate system and are essential to understand and predict climate change. However, these models come at a significant computational cost since they need to simulate a multitude of variables at a high temporal and spatial resolution to adequately represent the climate system. Climate model emulators are statistical models that are trained to reproduce (emulate) selected variables of full-fledged physical climate models at a much lower computational cost and higher speed. Such emulators are especially interesting in the context of climate change mitigation policies, which often deal with a limited number of relevant variables (e.g. annual mean temperature, number of hot days, annual maximum precipitation, etc.), but require several scenarios of how these variables may evolve under different policy choices. The “Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output”, in short MESMER, is a climate model emulator that can emulate large ensembles of several climate variables (see list of modules below) for any future climate change scenario conditional on global mean temperature.

Four MESMER modules have been developed over the last five years by several researchers from different institutions: (1) MESMER: module for annual mean temperature, (2) MESMER-M: module for monthly mean temperature, (3) MESMER-M-TP: module for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, and (4) MESMER-X: module for conditional distributions with focus on climate extremes. These modules were developed largely independent of each other and grew organically to meet the needs of the individual researchers and the analyses they performed without following consistent coding standards or software architecture.

Here we present how we unified the MESMER code base, integrating all modules into a single repository and rewriting them to adhere to sustainable software standards. We redesigned MESMER with respect to (1) maintainability, (2) extensibility, (3) flexibility, (4) adherence to a defined software architecture and, (5) accessibility. The result is an open source software tool that anyone can use and/or extend. Moreover, the software is easily available and understandable to users who are interested in emulating variables for their own scenarios without being proficient in climate modelling, for example policy makers. In addition, MESMER output from the revised modules is stable and reproducible. Here we present the unified MESMER version 1.0.0 and provide insights into the achievements, challenges and lessons learned during this process. This includes insights into the chosen architecture, our testing and code review framework, stability and performance enhancements and recommendations for the scientific programming community.

How to cite: Bauer, V., Hauser, M., Quilcaille, Y., Schöngart, S., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S.: Presenting MESMER v1 - Integrating Multiple Climate Emulator Modules Into One Sustainable Research Software Package, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9493, 2025.

EGU25-9601 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Assessing Changes in Hargreaves Evapotranspiration Model Accuracy Across Time and Altitude 

Viera Rattayová and Marcel Garaj

Modeling evapotranspiration is an increasingly relevant topic in scientific discussions, as its volume and trends are essential for identifying climate change. However, there is still no accepted method use as a reference for evapotranspiration modeling. The most preferred method is the FAO65 Penman-Monteith (P-M) model, which is widely used as a reference method for calculating reference and crop evapotranspiration and is recommended by scientific authorities. The aim of the research was to regionalize the Hargreaves model for calculating reference evapotranspiration under Central European conditions, aiming to achieve accuracy as close as possible to the P-M model.

A significant finding of the study is that the model coefficients are not stable over time, and therefore the accuracy of any modification to the Hargreaves model must be regularly validated.  Our results revealed a decrease in the accuracy of the modified Hargreaves model as the altitude of the climatological station increased. When altitude was incorporated into the Hargreaves equation, the model's accuracy significantly improved for stations at higher elevations, achieving a consistent level of accuracy across all stations, regardless of their location or altitude. Additionally, the results suggested that the optimal values for the model coefficients vary over time, with the B coefficient showing a decreasing trend of -0.5 and the C coefficient declining by -0.1 between the periods 1981-2000 and 2001-2020. This issue is particularly pronounced in the analysis of shorter time periods, where model may lead to substantial accuracy reductions.

How to cite: Rattayová, V. and Garaj, M.: Assessing Changes in Hargreaves Evapotranspiration Model Accuracy Across Time and Altitude, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9601, 2025.

EGU25-9899 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Coupling easily numerical models using the VSoil modelling platform 

Nicolas Beudez, Nicolas Moitrier, Nathalie Moitrier, Cédric Nouguier, Stéphane Ruy, and François Lafolie

Located at the interface between the groundwater table and the atmosphere, soil lies at the core of the critical zone. It is a complex, dynamic environment sustaining essential ecosystemic services and biodiversity. Numerical simulation models of soil processes are invaluable tools for tackling the complex issues involved in understanding and predicting physical, chemical and biological cycles, in relation to agricultural production, soil protection and adaptation to climate change. To provide a detailed representation of soil functioning, it is necessary to couple a large number of models that represent the various processes taking place within it. Modelling platforms help to do this by facilitating the development and use of coupled models of soil processes. A key requirement of such platforms is to be able to integrate existing, already validated, models without major difficulties.

To this aim, we present the VSoil modelling software platform (https://vsoil.hub.inrae.fr/) developed at INRAE (France’s National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment) since 2009 in close collaboration between scientists and software engineers. VSoil is an open-source platform designed to aid the development of numerical models at the soil profile scale describing physical, chemical and biological processes in soil and its interactions with climate and plants but also anthropic activities. The user-friendly workflow of VSoil simplifies the development and use of models, making them accessible even to scientists with limited experience in computer programming. The VSoil software suite comes with a range of already developed models and is designed to guide users as much as possible in addressing their scientific questions, by providing tools for: i) defining and describing pertinent soil processes and their interactions through their input and output variables, ii) developing elementary models, called modules, which are numerical representations of the processes, iii) assembling and coupling these modules into more or less complex models, and iv) parametrising and executing the resulting models, and visualising results. The VSoil team provides user support and regularly adds new features to meet the needs of the user community. VSoil currently offers key features, including: i) model exploration tools (sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation) along with the ability to run models on several sets of input data, ii) the possibility to run models, in a reproducible way, on a remote computing environment (server or cluster), iii) the connection to INRAE's national agroclimatic database. VSoil fosters collaboration between scientists from various disciplines and facilitates the sharing and use of new developments within the platform's user community.

VSoil is being used by scientists from various countries to address very diverse questions such as the fate of persistent fluorinated pollutants in soils, the impact of treated wastewater on soil, the use of geophysics for non-destructive characterisation of soil hydraulic properties, the fate of pesticides at the landscape level, the simulation of soil carbon dynamics, or the optimisation of forestry machinery operations to mitigate soil degradation and compaction.

How to cite: Beudez, N., Moitrier, N., Moitrier, N., Nouguier, C., Ruy, S., and Lafolie, F.: Coupling easily numerical models using the VSoil modelling platform, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9899, 2025.

EGU25-11752 | Orals | HS1.3.4

Can Deep Learning Revolutionize Hydrology? 

Luis Samaniego

Process-based models, such as land surface and hydrologic models (LSMs/HMs), have been foundational to hydrological research for decades. These models are grounded in the principles of mass, energy, and momentum conservation, providing critical insights into the terrestrial water cycle and forming an essential component of Earth System Models. Despite their importance, process-based models face significant limitations, primarily due to parametric and structural uncertainties that hinder their transferability across scales and locations, ultimately reducing their predictive accuracy.

In contrast, machine learning (ML) models learn directly from data, offering potential advantages for capturing highly nonlinear and complex processes, especially when large datasets are available. However, ML models also have notable drawbacks, including a lack of interpretability (often regarded as "black-box" models, despite efforts to develop more explainable or "physically aware" variants), dependence on data quality and availability, and challenges in generalizing under climate or environmental change conditions.

Given the rapid adoption of ML techniques in recent hydrological literature, a key question arises: Can deep learning replace traditional hydrological models due to its speed and accuracy, or is this shift merely a transient trend?

In this presentation, I will argue that before addressing this question, it is essential to establish two key prerequisites: (1) the purpose of the modeling effort, and (2) the appropriate protocols and metrics [1,2] for evaluating model efficiency. To formalize this discussion, I will propose a set of postulations for each modeling paradigm. Drawing on several examples, I will suggest that the most promising future lies in hybrid modeling frameworks, where the empirical aspects of LSMs/HMs (e.g., pedo-transfer function derivation) could be augmented by ML techniques [3,4], while maintaining the core physical processes [5]. ML could also serve as a valuable tool for estimating human-made impacts [6] on the hydrological system, where first-principles models are often lacking.

References:

[1] Rakovec et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019430    
[2] Samaniego et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4323-2017
[3] Feigl et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR031966
[4] Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2023WR035543
[5] Kholis et al. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173532490.04454195/v1
[6] Shrestha et al.  https://doi.org/10.1029/ 2023WR035433

How to cite: Samaniego, L.: Can Deep Learning Revolutionize Hydrology?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11752, 2025.

EGU25-12133 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Enhancing data preparation for hydrological modeling: a Python-based approach for coupling SWAT+ and MODFLOW 

Maciej Nikiel, Adam Szymkiewicz, Przemysław Wachniew, and Anna J. Żurek

This research focused on the application of Python-based tools for efficient preparation and processing of input data for hydrological modelling in an agricultural catchment of the Kocinka River (SW Poland). Prepared scripts and workflows address the challenge of integration of many data sources required for SWAT+ and MODFLOW models. The presented study focuses on automation of data preprocessing tasks and model calibration support, with option to reuse scripts in future work with similar data for different areas.

The Python-based approach utilizes various libraries, like: GeoPandas for processing spatial data from vector maps, Pandas and Numpy for handling meteorological time series from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), and Flopy for MODFLOW data management. The scripts streamline the preparation of weather and soil input data specifically formatted for SWAT+ Editor and QSWAT, significantly reducing manual data handling and potential errors in the data preparation phase. The automated workflow particularly benefits the processing of data from agricultural areas, which comprise 66% of the catchment area, ensuring consistent handling of land use parameters across the modeling domain.

The data processing framework incorporates multiple data inputs: meteorological data including precipitation, temperature, and other climate variables, detailed soil maps and land use information as well as satellite data about solar radiation (SARAH-2). The system processes river stage data from three profiles with 30-minute temporal resolution, complemented by flow measurements for hydrological validation. 

The developed Python tools also support the model calibration process by enabling rapid modification of input parameters and automated analysis of water balance components. This approach allows for efficient sensitivity analysis and model refinement, particularly beneficial for understanding the groundwater-surface water interactions.

The study contributes to good modeling practices by providing examples of efficient data preprocessing workflows and calibration support tools, essential for complex hydrological studies that combine multiple data sources and modeling platforms. The automated approach not only saves time but also enhances reproducibility and transparency in the modeling process. 

Acknowledgements. The work was carried out as part of WATERLINE project (2020/02/Y/ST10/00065), under the CHISTERA IV programme of the EU Horizon 2020 (grant no. 857925) funded by National Science Centre, Poland and a partially by AGH University of Krakow, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection (grant no. 16.16.140.315). 

How to cite: Nikiel, M., Szymkiewicz, A., Wachniew, P., and Żurek, A. J.: Enhancing data preparation for hydrological modeling: a Python-based approach for coupling SWAT+ and MODFLOW, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12133, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12133, 2025.

EGU25-12388 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

RUMI (Ratio of Uncertainty to Mutial Information): Uncertainty consideration in rainfall-runoff models calibration 

Alonso Pizarro, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, and Alberto Montanari

The ratio of uncertainty to mutual information (RUMI) is proposed as a new and novel objective function for rainfall-runoff model calibration. Uncertainty is quantified by means of BLUECAT (likelihood-free approach), whereas mutual information through entropy-based concepts. The deterministic GR4J rainfall-runoff model is considered to illustrate RUMI’s calibration capabilities over around 100 catchments in Chile. Those catchments have a pseudo-natural hydrological regime and are located in different macroclimatic zones. Calibration with the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) was also performed. Additionally, several hydrological signatures were used to assess RUMI’s performance and comparison with KGE-based results was carried out. Key findings showed that RUMI-based simulations had improved performance and reduced variability (in comparison with KGE-based simulations). This study highlights RUMI’s capabilities for hydrological model calibration by considering uncertainty quantification as a key computation step and, therefore, contributing to more accurate and reliable hydrological predictions. This work was supported by The National Research and Development Agency of the Chilean Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation (ANID), grant no. FONDECYT Iniciación 11240171; the RETURN Extended Partnership which received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005); and, the Italian Science Fund through the project "Stochastic amplification of climate change into floods and droughts change (CO$_2$2Water)", grant number J53C23003860001.

How to cite: Pizarro, A., Koutsoyiannis, D., and Montanari, A.: RUMI (Ratio of Uncertainty to Mutial Information): Uncertainty consideration in rainfall-runoff models calibration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12388, 2025.

EGU25-12401 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

ThermoOptiPlan: Optimizing Planning and Operation of Geothermal Systems using innovative prediction tools 

Monika Sester, Insa Neuweiler, Mattheo Broggi, André Stechern, and Thullner Martin

The use of deep geothermal energy is an important building block in the planned transformation of energy systems. However, the development of new sources, particularly for the pore aquifers in the North German Basin, has not progressed as far as necessary to make a substantial contribution. Decisive obstacles here are, on the one hand, the exploration risk, which essentially results from uncertainties regarding the subsurface properties, as well as larger cost factors that are difficult to calculate during operation, such as scaling effects, which reduce efficiency and may require expensive countermeasures. The lack of information on the geological properties in the target horizon makes it difficult to plan and make the estimates required for decision-making. Due to the depth of the formations, the generally weak information and data situation will not change quickly. In addition to the further development of exploration methods, methods are therefore needed that generate the best possible information about the subsurface and the processes from the available data and take into account the uncertainties of the information obtained due to the limited data available.

In this contribution we will present the approaches of a project where this question will be tackled by developing AI methods for accessing and linking existing data sources. The aim of the project is to develop and apply an IT-based concept for the planning of geothermal duplicate systems in northern German aquifers and to predict the influence of geochemical processes on the long-term efficiency of these systems. For this purpose, a digital twin of the subsurface with an assessment of uncertainties is being developed and various coordinated digital tools are being created and combined in an open-source workflow that can be flexibly modified. This is being developed as an example for an existing geothermal power plant, which has been in operation for many years; in particular the geochemical processes that have been investigated for the plant for a long time are being taken into account. The results of the project are intended to support planning and decision-making and make existing process and site knowledge available for more efficient operation of deep geothermal energy.

The presentation will give an overview of the project and present initial work.

How to cite: Sester, M., Neuweiler, I., Broggi, M., Stechern, A., and Martin, T.: ThermoOptiPlan: Optimizing Planning and Operation of Geothermal Systems using innovative prediction tools, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12401, 2025.

EGU25-12698 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Streamflow Alteration Index (SAI): Mapping Dam and Reservoir Impacts on Streamflow for Improved Hydrological Modeling 

Hongren Shen, Bryan Tolson, James Craig, Robert Metcalfe, and Jonathan Romero Cuellar

Dams and reservoirs are integral to regional water management, providing critical services such as flood and drought control, water supply, hydropower generation, and recreation. However, their streamflow regulation often disrupts hydrological connectivity, sediment transport, and biodiversity, leading to significant ecological consequences. These alterations modify flow regimes across various time scales (hourly to annual), complicating the accuracy of hydrological models in affected regions. Thus, understanding how dam-induced streamflow alterations propagate through river networks is essential for informed water resource management.

Current flow regulation indicators, such as those official flags from Water Survey Canada (WSC), are point-scale binary values that often under- or over-estimate regulation effects and lack spatial continuity. To address this limitation, we propose a spatially continuous metric, the Streamflow Alteration Index (SAI), which incorporates point-based alteration signals from dams, reservoirs, lakes, hydropower facilities, and hydrometric gauges into a subbasin-scale river and routing network. The SAI allows hydrologists to quantify cumulative upstream streamflow alterations at any point in a vector-based routing network. Using Ontario, Canada, as a case study, we applied the SAI to a network encompassing 245,576 subbasins, 82,928 lakes, and over 3,000 alteration sources identified from provincial and global datasets. This approach produced a seamless, high-resolution map of streamflow alteration signals across Ontario (total area: 1.07 million km2) at the subbasin scale, importantly covering both gauged points (including 1,320 flow and level gauges) and ungauged locations within the routing network. The SAI was validated against nearly 500 hydrometric gauges with WSC regulation flags.

Results demonstrate that the SAI effectively identifies near-natural gauges with over 95% accuracy while revealing that more than 40% of gauges that are flagged as regulated by WSC could instead be reconsidered as model calibration targets, as many of them show little signs of significant regulation. By offering a less restrictive yet more reliable alternative, the SAI enables hydrologists to retain a larger pool of near-natural gauges for calibration, thereby enhancing streamflow predictions, particularly in data-sparse or ungauged regions. Furthermore, the SAI approach can be generalized to other routing networks in Canada and globally.

How to cite: Shen, H., Tolson, B., Craig, J., Metcalfe, R., and Romero Cuellar, J.: Streamflow Alteration Index (SAI): Mapping Dam and Reservoir Impacts on Streamflow for Improved Hydrological Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12698, 2025.

EGU25-13870 | Orals | HS1.3.4

What is the optimal length of the calibration period? 

Ilja van Meerveld, Marc Vis, Yuko Asano, and Jan Seibert

When applying a hydrological model, the length of the calibration period is typically based on the length of the available hydroclimatic data series. Usually, half of the data are used for the calibration of the model and the other half for validation, but other splits (e.g., three quarters and one quarter) are possible as well. When the data record is short, all data may be used for calibration. The general idea is that a longer calibration period will include a wider range of conditions (e.g., a wider range of flood events) and thus lead to a more robust model. However, a longer calibration period does not always have to be better. There are reasons for not using a (too) long calibration period. First, a long calibration period may not be necessary if the extra years of data do not contain any additional information (i.e., different conditions). In this case, a longer calibration period may just waste computer resources, which is an issue when the model is calibrated for a large number of catchments. Second, some discharge records are by now more than 80 years long. During this time period many things have changed. This includes the way that streams are gauged, leading to differences in data accuracy. The catchments themselves will likely have changed as well. For some catchments, these changes are obvious but for other catchments they are more subtle. Even if the dominant land use has remained agriculture, the agricultural practices have changed. Similarly, for catchments that have remained forested during the period of data collection, there may be changes in the percent or spatial pattern of open areas or changes in the species composition. One could, therefore, argue that there is a trade-off between a long calibration period that includes all the variation in the climate and not using data from a period during which the catchment was different from the current conditions. With increasing length of available data series the question on the optimal length of the calibration period becomes more relevant.

To explore the sensitivity of the model results to the length of the calibration period, we calibrated the HBV model for several Japanese and Swiss catchments for which long hydroclimatic records are available. We split these records into multiple calibration and validation periods of different lengths and assessed 1) how the drop in model performance between the calibration and validation period depends on the periods chosen for model calibration and validation, and 2) how the length of the calibration period affects the range in model calibration and validation performances. The results show that the optimal length of the calibration period depends on the catchment, and differs even for neighboring catchments. These analyses provide some information on the optimal length of the calibration period for the study catchments but need to be repeated for other catchments to prove the generalizability of the results. 

How to cite: van Meerveld, I., Vis, M., Asano, Y., and Seibert, J.: What is the optimal length of the calibration period?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13870, 2025.

EGU25-13900 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.4

Assumptions in global irrigation modelling are mostly pragmatic, not empirical 

Seth Nathaniel Linga, Carmen Aguiló, Joshua Larsen, Michela Massimi, Nanxin Wei, and Arnald Puy

Mathematical models are idealised representations of real-world processes and must balance the specific characteristics of the object of study with simplifications to ensure usability. In other words: they have to rely on both empirical (backed by data and research) and pragmatic (designed to facilitate computation, abstractions) assumptions. However, we do not know how many of the assumptions embedded in global irrigation models (GIM) fall into each category. Given that pragmatic assumptions are more flexible and can be replaced, changed or removed, this knowledge gap constrains our ability to delineate the uncertainties in these models and assess how reliable their results are. 

To tackle this issue, we used sensitivity auditing, a framework for evaluating both quantitative and qualitative assumptions. We systematically analysed 50 documents of nine GIMs and extracted all the assumptions that underpin the simulation of global irrigation water withdrawals. We grouped them into relevant facets of irrigation (climate, crop, soil moisture, irrigation practices, and water source) and classified each assumption as pragmatical or empirical in nature using a philosophy of science perspective.

Our analysis reveals that irrigation models are largely guided by pragmatic considerations. Of approximately 100 identified assumptions, over 70% lack empirical support, with most idealising farmer behaviour. Moreover, 40% of these pragmatic claims are common to at least two models, suggesting that modellers tend to follow each other's assumptions, irrespective of their empirical validity.

The widespread reliance on pragmatic assumptions in GIMs suggests that their uncertainty space is much larger than previously thought, provided that pragmatic assumptions are potentially changeable without jeopardising the representational capacity of the model. The effect that changing pragmatic assumptions has on the output of GIMs deserves further exploration. Our findings underscore the need to appraise the uncertainty in model assumptions to foster transparency and improve the epistemic role and utility of GIMs in society.

How to cite: Linga, S. N., Aguiló, C., Larsen, J., Massimi, M., Wei, N., and Puy, A.: Assumptions in global irrigation modelling are mostly pragmatic, not empirical, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13900, 2025.

EGU25-14083 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Automating Hydrological Model Preprocessing: GIS Tools for CATFLOW in V-FOR-WaTer 

Safa Bouguezzi, Elnaz Azmi, Balazs Bishop, Kaoutar Boussaoud, Alexander Dolich, Sibylle K Hassler, Mirko Mälicke, Ahish Manoj Jaseetha, Jörg Meyer, Achim Streit, and Erwin Zehe

Hydrological modeling frequently requires time-intensive preprocessing of spatial datasets, including Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), to provide inputs in the desired format for the chosen hydrological model. It takes up important research time and is difficult to repeat. V-FOR-WaTer as a virtual research environment provides a practical methodology for environmental data processing, equipping researchers with tools that streamline model construction, improve reproducibility, and minimize errors.

This abstract emphasizes a use case involving V-FOR-WaTer’s GIS preprocessing tools, which are intended to automate the creation of hillslope geometry files for the spatially distributed hillslope-scale hydrological model CATFLOW. The automated operations convert raw DEMs into key input files, including streams, flow accumulation, aspect, distance to rivers, and elevation profiles. These instruments diminish manual preprocessing duration and enhance repeatability, allowing researchers to concentrate on analysis and scenario formulation.

The GIS preprocessing tool is developed in line with FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reproducible) principles, enhancing their adaptability to diverse regions and datasets. Their standardization and accessibility enable seamless integration into various research workflows, fostering consistency and scalability. While the full workflow is under development, preliminary results demonstrate the platform’s potential to harmonize datasets and improve hydrological modeling efficiency.

V-FOR-WaTer encourages hydrologists and environmental scientists to examine the CATFLOW workflow and use its tools to enhance efficiency and reproducibility in hydrological research. This approach ensures that researchers can obtain reliable results while reducing the difficulties associated with manual data preparation.

How to cite: Bouguezzi, S., Azmi, E., Bishop, B., Boussaoud, K., Dolich, A., Hassler, S. K., Mälicke, M., Manoj Jaseetha, A., Meyer, J., Streit, A., and Zehe, E.: Automating Hydrological Model Preprocessing: GIS Tools for CATFLOW in V-FOR-WaTer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14083, 2025.

EGU25-14940 | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Evaluation the suitability of contrasting performance metrics and signature measures with the identifiability quote index 

Björn Guse, Anna Herzog, Tobias Houska, Diana Spieler, Maria Staudinger, Paul Wagner, Stephan Thober, Ralf Loritz, and Sandra Pool and the DFG Scientific Network IMPRO

Good representation of the hydrological system in models is required to provide reliable predictions. The selection of a suitable set of performance criteria is a core decision in identifying the optimal parameter set(s) during model calibration. As each performance criterion focuses on different parts of the hydrograph, their selection often determines which parameter values are selected as optimal for representing the rainfall-runoff behaviour in a catchment. Knowning which performance criteria are most suitable for which purpose, model or catchment is difficult to determine.

We therefore selected a set of 16 classical performance metrics and signature measures which together cover all phases of the hydrograph to test their suitability for identifying different types of parameters. We used four hydrological models (HBV, SWAT+, mHM and RAVEN-GR4J) in six catchments belonging to diverse landscapes in Germany. All model parameters were grouped into five process groups (snow, evapotranspiration, soil, surface and subsurface processes) to make the parameters comparable between the models. We then developed a metric called “identifiability quote index” which shows the degree of identifiability for each combination of parameter and performance criterion.

Our results show that the classical performance criteria (e.g. NSE, KGE) are not sufficient to identify suitable values for all parameters. Signature measures (e.g. flashiness index, baseflow index) often have a higher “identifiability quote index” for specific cases and are suitable for either capacity or flux parameters. The degree of identifiability tends to vary between processes and models, but evapotranspiration parameters are generally highly identifiable with water-balance related metrics. The more complex a model is (e.g. mHM, SWAT+), the more difficult it is to determine parameter identifiabilities.

In conclusion our study shows that a set of contrasting performance metrics and signature measures are needed to represent the whole hydrological system and to accurately identify the parameters.

How to cite: Guse, B., Herzog, A., Houska, T., Spieler, D., Staudinger, M., Wagner, P., Thober, S., Loritz, R., and Pool, S. and the DFG Scientific Network IMPRO: Evaluation the suitability of contrasting performance metrics and signature measures with the identifiability quote index, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14940, 2025.

EGU25-15544 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

Software Products from the OpenWorkFlow Project 

Christoph Lehmann, Lars Bilke, Nico Graebling, Julian Heinze, Tobias Meisel, Dmitri Naumov, Özgür Ozan Sen, and Olaf Kolditz

The siting process of a deep geological nuclear repository is a complex long-term endeavour involving many different stakeholders. Assessing the
suitability of a site for a nuclear waste repository requires, among others, robust simulation models of the relevant underground thermal, hydrological,
mechanical, and chemical (THMC) processes. Screening such sites for an entire country involves running these simulation models for various parameter
sets, on various scales, with various degrees of simplification. The data integration from different sources and post-processing and visualization of
results are of equal importance as the models themselves.

The OpenWorkFlow project, funded by the Bundesgesellschaft für Endlagerung (BGE), aims at developing open source, automated, robust, quality assured simulation workflows in the context of the nuclear waste repository siting process in Germany. During the first project phase from 2021 to 2024 several software products emerged from the OpenWorkFlow project, which will be presented on this poster:

  • OGSTools, a Python tool suite around OpenGeoSys (OGS), the reference THMC simulator in the OpenWorkFlow project, simplifying model setup, simulation studies and post-processing (https://ogstools.opengeosys.org).
  • A FEFLOW to OGS converter, enabling to combine the advantages of both simulators: the convenience and UI features of FEFLOW and the transparency and extensibility of OGS (https://ogstools.opengeosys.org/stable/user-guide/feflowlib.html).
  • A fully automated workflow for the thermal dimensioning of a nuclear waste repository—i.e., determining the required area for a repository—for various parameter combinations. This workflow has already been used in the siting process in Germany in practice.
  • A set of virtual reality applications have been developed that provide a virtual field trip to the Mont Terri rock laboratory and a serious game in an immersive virtual environment. These applications support the exploration and validation of underground processes. They enable an improved science communication of conducted research as well as training and collaboration on the ongoing experiments.

The second phase of the OpenWorkFlow project has started in January 2025. Until the end of 2029 the existing simulation workflows will be heavily extended to support the safety assessment of nuclear waste repository candidates.

How to cite: Lehmann, C., Bilke, L., Graebling, N., Heinze, J., Meisel, T., Naumov, D., Sen, Ö. O., and Kolditz, O.: Software Products from the OpenWorkFlow Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15544, 2025.

EGU25-18108 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.4

Towards Transparent and Unbiased Hydrological Model Comparisons: A Case Study of the 2021 Floods in Belgium. 

Christophe Dessers, Pierre Archambeau, Benjamin Dewals, Sébastien Erpicum, Anne-Lou Borgna, and Michel Pirotton

Comparing the performance and sensitivity of various hydrological models, or the hypotheses underpinning some of their components present considerable challenges. Biases can be introduced by a multitude of factors, including the expertise or preferences of users and developers, numerical discretisation techniques, input data, preprocessing procedures, calibration strategies, and rounding errors. To minimise these biases, we propose a standardised framework for model comparison and model structure sensitivity analysis.

A flexible hydrological tool, WOLFHydro, has been developed to integrate models organised in modular components. It accommodates models of different natures–with diverse underlying hypotheses– (empirical, conceptual, or physically based) and spatial discretisation approaches (lumped, semi-distributed, or gridded). This tool ensures consistent preprocessing, input data management, semi-distributed catchment discretisation, modelling of anthropogenic structures (e.g., dams and reservoirs) , numerical scheme implementation, and calibration procedures, providing a robust basis for fair inter-model comparisons.

The 2021 floods in most severely impacted Belgian catchments serve as a benchmark case to illustrate the methodology. This study involves comparing hydrological models, which aim to represent the same hydrological processes, but with varying structures, formulations, and nature. It includes an in-house gridded conceptual/physically-based model and widely used lumped models such as GR4H, HBV, NAM, SAC-SMA (Sacramento), and VHM. The proposed framework ensures that the models’ physical outcomes and performance can be compared on equal footing.

This approach not only addresses the issue of equifinality by identifying optimal scenarios but also highlights the strengths and limitations of each model formulation. It emphasises the representation of hydrological processes (runoff coefficient, average contribution of different type of flow in hydrographs, probability of exceedance, etc) over reliance on parameter values alone. This focus would facilitate the parameters transferability of model parameters, particularly in conceptual models where parameters lack explicit physical meaning. Ultimately, this methodology offers a comprehensive framework for improving the transparency, reliability and interpretability of hydrological model comparisons.

How to cite: Dessers, C., Archambeau, P., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Borgna, A.-L., and Pirotton, M.: Towards Transparent and Unbiased Hydrological Model Comparisons: A Case Study of the 2021 Floods in Belgium., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18108, 2025.

EGU25-18145 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.4

On weighted ensembles: do the weights derived with different methods make sense?  

Marko Kallio, Sina Masoumzadeh, and Matti Kummu

Weighted combinations of multiple estimates of the same property is a commonplace technique in hydrology and earth sciences in general. These collections of estimates – ensembles – commonly consist of different realisations of model structures, parametrisations, input data and/or perturbed initial conditions. The use of weighted ensembles is often motivated by their capability to quantify and reduce error and uncertainty. Just how should we derive the weights is not necessarily clear: the literature knows a large number of methods for weighting, ranging from a simple average (the ensemble mean or median) to complex machine learning algorithms, each with various constraints, properties or assumptions. But do the weights derived by different methods make sense? Can we associate the derived weights to the performance of the ensemble members? Are they related to hydrological signatures (hydrological processes)? Do descriptive catchment attributes predict weights associated to certain ensemble members? Understanding these associations is required for appropriate solutions to the major challenge of regionalisation of ensemble weights.  

We performed a large sample study of 482 catchments and more than 116 000 simulations of conceptual hydrological model (HBV) and explore how different model averaging methods and constraints to the weights influence the associations and performance of a weighted ensemble. The results show that constraining the weights to strictly positive values is advantageous because the output is less sensitive to the composition and size of the ensemble (i.e. the weights are more stable). Constrained weights do not risk negative streamflow predictions, which can often occur when members are assigned negative weights. Furthermore, constrained weights are more reliable in reproducing flow quantiles (particularly low flows) and flow variation, and their overall performance in the testing period is similar, or better, than predictions derived with weights without constraints. Nevertheless, allowing flexibility of free weights produces outputs with better daily and weekly streamflow dynamics. Based on our explorations on the associations and performance, we present our recommendations for selecting an appropriate model averaging methods in hydrology.  

How to cite: Kallio, M., Masoumzadeh, S., and Kummu, M.: On weighted ensembles: do the weights derived with different methods make sense? , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18145, 2025.

EGU25-19344 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.4

What should we actually regionalize? - The benefits of temporal aggregation for low-flow prediction. 

Johannes Laimighofer, Alina Bachler, and Gregor Laaha

Predicting low-flow characteristics in ungauged basins is crucial for effective water management. Regionalization of low flow can either directly focus on lumped characteristics, such as mean annual minimum (MAM), or on seasonal or monthly characteristics (e.g., mean winter minima, mean summer minima, monthly mean minima). Alternatively, regionalization can focus on the time series (e.g., annual, monthly, or daily time series), as in rainfall-runoff models, which are subsequently used to predict the characteristics of interest. Most studies to date have regionalized runoff characteristics separately, leading to inconsistencies for each catchment. We propose regionalizing a full time series for each site to derive all low-flow characteristics from this single time series.

We regionalize daily streamflow and monthly, seasonal, and lumped low-flow characteristics using the US-CAMELS dataset. Low-flow characteristics are derived from the 7-day average streamflow, allowing us to compare annual, seasonal, and overall minima across different regionalization methods. Our approach leverages state-of-the-art machine learning models, such as tree-based models, support vector regression, and deep-learning architectures. For rainfall-runoff modeling of daily streamflow, we use an LSTM model tailored to low-flow prediction with an expectile loss function. Model validation is performed using 10-fold cross-validation. We evaluate our approach not only with common error metrics - such as RMSE and MAE - but also by quantifying the error in estimating the extreme value distribution of annual minima from the predicted time series.

Our results indicate that higher temporal resolution yields higher prediction accuracy compared to lumped characteristics. However, tailoring daily streamflow predictions to the lower quantile of the data is essential for more accurate results.

How to cite: Laimighofer, J., Bachler, A., and Laaha, G.: What should we actually regionalize? - The benefits of temporal aggregation for low-flow prediction., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19344, 2025.

EGU25-21403 | Orals | HS1.3.4

Elevating Open Hydrology practice and policy: insights for scientists 

Nilay Dogulu, Annelies Mertens, and Koen Verbist

The concept of openness (open science, open innovation, open knowledge) has transformed the culture of science and research across the globe, with many scientific disciplines, organizations and countries committing to openness, transparency, accessibility and reproducibility. Development of policy and guidelines further promote Open Science practice by increasing national implementational measures. In this regard, the UNESCO Recommendation on Open Science (UNESCO, 2021) has set an international standard for picking up the pace to evolve together and for each other.

Integration of Open Science into hydrology is gaining higher momentum – there are many exemplary academic initiatives at personal and/or local levels which are scaled up at institutional and/or regional scales. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive strategic framework that advocates for the accessibility of hydrological research to a broad spectrum of researchers, practitioners, and policymakers.

The new “Open Hydrology” publication by UNESCO (https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/open-hydrology) addresses this gap by outlining six pillars— open data, open source, open publishing, open infrastructure, open education, and open participation — to highlight the true potential of Open Science to enhance research transparency, collaboration, and accessibility within water management practices. It is developed for members of (water) research communities and infrastructures, hydrological service providers (including private sector), research administrators and facilitators of research, publishers, policy makers and funders, citizen science groups and initiatives who have a stake in hydrology and water resources research. The key objectives of this publication are:

  • to introduce key components of Open Hydrology and discuss required policies, leadership and capacity building,
  • to highlight Open Hydrology stakeholders and existing initiatives, tools, resources, etc. for knowledge generation and science governance,
  • to establish steps forward on how to address the needs and gaps in implementation of an Open Hydrology framework and,
  • to identify opportunities and share recommendations for sustaining Open Hydrology.

In this talk, we will share the highlights from the “Open Hydrology” publication and discuss ways forward to enable the hydrological community to become an ‘Open Science Ambassador’.

How to cite: Dogulu, N., Mertens, A., and Verbist, K.: Elevating Open Hydrology practice and policy: insights for scientists, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21403, 2025.

EGU25-600 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.5

Hydroclimatic Modeling of Lake Victoria: Development of an Inland Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model with Future Climatic Risk Projections 

Vincent Ogembo, Wim Thiery, Rosa Pietroiusti, Mary Akurut, Inne Vanderkelen, and Gavin Akinyi

Lake Victoria, the world’s second-largest freshwater lake, is vital for regional ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions across East Africa. However, the basin is increasingly vulnerable to hydroclimatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, exacerbated by climate variability and human activities. This research aims to address these challenges through the development and application of a Inland Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model (ILIWaB Model) for the lake. The ILIWaB Model, which has been successfully developed, integrates hydrological, meteorological, and socioeconomic data to simulate lake inflows, outflows, and net balances. The model serves as a foundation for flood simulations and climate projections, with the latter performed under a suite of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to capture diverse future scenarios. Key outputs include flood extent simulations, scheduled for completion by May 2025, and the assessment of risks to surrounding populations. These simulations aim to predict the intensity and frequency of flooding events and evaluate their implications for population safety, infrastructure, and economic stability. Preliminary results demonstrate the model’s capability to accurately replicate historical water balance conditions and predict potential flooding hotspots. Long-term projections suggest a significant increase in flood risks under high-emission scenarios, threatening over 5 million residents in low-lying areas. The study underscores the importance of adopting adaptive management strategies and informed policymaking to mitigate future risks. This research offers a robust framework for climate-resilient planning in the Lake Victoria basin and provides transferable insights for other transboundary water systems globally.

How to cite: Ogembo, V., Thiery, W., Pietroiusti, R., Akurut, M., Vanderkelen, I., and Akinyi, G.: Hydroclimatic Modeling of Lake Victoria: Development of an Inland Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model with Future Climatic Risk Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-600, 2025.

Water-induced natural disaster risks are one of the major challenges faced globally. With the intensification of climate change and human activities, water scarcity, frequent extreme precipitation events, and the increasing occurrence of drought and flood disasters have become significant risk factors threatening the sustainable development of regional economies and societies. The occurrence of water-related disasters is not only influenced by natural hazards but also closely linked to the exposure and vulnerability of socio-economic systems, demonstrating a high degree of complexity and multifactorial nature. The Guanzhong Plain, as an important economic zone and densely populated area in northwest China, faces severe water risk challenges, posing significant pressure on both regional economic development and ecological sustainability. Therefore, a systematic assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of water risk in the Guanzhong Plain is not only crucial for addressing regional water security issues but also provides an important practical basis for developing scientific water resource management strategies. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations in precipitation and temperature in the Guanzhong Plain using long-term observational data from 14 meteorological stations. Subsequently, the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation were examined using the RClimDex model, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated. In addition, the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) was employed to assess the ecological environment status, revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and flood hazards and their driving factors. Building on these analyses, a comprehensive water disaster risk assessment framework was developed, incorporating factors such as the hazard posed by disaster-inducing elements, the vulnerability of disaster-prone environments, the exposure of disaster-bearing entities, and the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. Sixteen representative indicators were selected, and a combined weighting approach using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Weight Method was applied to assign weights to these indicators. Finally, a quantitative assessment and spatial zoning of water risk safety in the Guanzhong Plain were conducted using weighted composite analysis. Based on the identified levels of water risk safety, corresponding policy recommendations were proposed. This study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and underlying driving mechanisms of water risk in the Guanzhong Plain, and develops a comprehensive water risk assessment framework, providing scientific basis and theoretical support for regional water resource management and sustainable development.

How to cite: Li, X.: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Driving Factors and Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Water-Induced Hazards in the Guanzhong Plain, Northwest China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1943, 2025.

I represent a community catchment-based adaptation initiative launched in a peripheral region. The region is located in south-eastern Hungary (and its neighbouring area in Romania), in the floodplain between the Sebes-Körös river and the Fekete-Körös river. The initiative has been recently launched by 9 Hungarian and 3 Romanian local authorities to prevent the area from drying out.

The problem started with river regulation and drainage, followed by land use based on drainage for intensive agricultural production. Then in the 1970’s additional cross collecting canals (parallel tot he border) were created that constantly drain the waters of former natural watercourses into the surrounding larger rivers. Another problem is that run-off water that collects or flows into agricultural areas is immediately drained by farmers and water management institutions and there is no water retention in agricultural areas. These have led to the drying out of the area. All these human stresses are amplified by  climate change. The amount of rainfall is decreasing, the number of rainy days is decreasing and their distribution is becoming more unpredictable. At the same time there are more intense rainfall events, during which rainwater do not infiltrate into the soil and does not improve the local water balance but runs off quickly from the area. Inland excess water inundation periods are also becoming less frequent and shorter in duration. Former watercourses and the current canals have dried up. Not only has the water disappeared from the watercourses, but the groundwater table has also dropped.

The catchment-based community started to assess the impacts of water scarcity due to climate change and poor water management and started to engage key stakeholders. The following steps are planned:

  • Change the agricultural and landscape profile to be able to retain water. This includes the introduction of agricultural practices, green landscape elements and naturalwater retention measures and that can slow down runoff and improve infiltration.
  • Modify the functioning of the canals that run through and drain the region to be able to collect and retain water.
  • Improve water governance practices between the Hungarian and Romanian water management authorities so that water resources are more evenly distributed and balanced both spatially and in time.
  • Develop an organizational model that can manage sub-catchment water resources to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

We would like to present the preliminary impacts assessed,, the options for intervention and the possibilities for further action.

How to cite: Vaszkó, C.: Climate change adaptation of the Bihor-Kis-Sárrét region through local catchment community initiatives to improve transboundary water governance and introduce natural water retention measures., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2376, 2025.

The hydrological processes of the Nu-Salween River (NSR) Basin are increasingly challenged by climate change in the 21st century. Effective water resources management, particularly reservoir regulation, plays a key role in flood control and drought mitigation. This study employs the Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model of the NSR Basin (GBHM-NSR), incorporating a reservoir regulation scheme for simulating the impact of a hypothesized reservoir, to: 1) assess the trends of flooding and drought under future climate change scenarios across the NSR Basin, and 2) evaluate the possible impact of reservoir regulation on the frequency and magnitude of future flood and hydrological drought events. The results indicate an anticipated increase in both the frequency and magnitude of floods, alongside a decrease in drought risk under climate change. The midstream area is identified as particularly vulnerable to hydrological anomalies. Reservoir regulation serves to stabilize intra-annual streamflow, mitigating both flood and hydrological drought risks in the future under three SSP-RCP scenarios, with the most pronounced effects observed under the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario, indicating the reservoir regulation scheme is of greater effectiveness under the future scenario with continuing pathways as present condition. However, in the future scenario with higher severity of climate change and hydrological extremities (SSP5-RCP8.5), more targeted and strengthened regulatory strategies will be necessary to achieve better water security for riparian communities and maintain hydrological stability, both of which are essential for sustaining ecosystem services, supporting socioeconomic development, and adapting to climate variability.

How to cite: Guo, Y., Yang, F., and Lu, H.: The mitigation on future flood and hydrological drought under reservoir regulation: A case study in Nu-Salween river basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3264, 2025.

EGU25-7423 | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Influence of past and future atmospheric and oceanic climate change on groundwater levels, recharge, discharge, and salinity 

Barret Kurylyk, Nicole LeRoux, Heather Bay Berry, Armita Motamedi, Ronald Bailey Strong, and Ryan Malley

Atmospheric climate change in cold regions can impact groundwater resources through alterations to snow-rain partitioning, mid-winter thaws, and evapotranspiration. Also, sea-level rise can drive elevated coastal water tables and saltwater intrusion, which can deleteriously impact coastal groundwater resources and coastal infrastructure. We investigate these processes in the coastal province of Nova Scotia, Canada, where 40% of the population relies on vulnerable private wells. We consider impacts of past climate change by conducting statistical analyses of hydrometeorological data and find that late-summer significant negative trends are apparent in net precipitation, groundwater levels, and groundwater discharge (baseflow). To assess the impacts of future climate change we are developing province-wide coastal groundwater vulnerability maps (salinization and water table rise) based on a coastal groundwater analytical solution parameterized and forced with geospatial data. We are also using downscaled climate projections to drive a physically-based hydrologic model to investigate how groundwater recharge may respond to changing temperature and precipitation in different hydrologic response units. Our preliminary results provide critical insights into the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and lay the foundation for better risk identification to underpin sustainable groundwater management. 

How to cite: Kurylyk, B., LeRoux, N., Berry, H. B., Motamedi, A., Strong, R. B., and Malley, R.: Influence of past and future atmospheric and oceanic climate change on groundwater levels, recharge, discharge, and salinity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7423, 2025.

EGU25-8506 | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Key Considerations in Choosing the Optimal Reference Period for Hydrological Applications in Slovakia 

Katarina Jeneiova, Lotta Blaskovicova, Katarina Kotrikova, Katarina Melova, and Jana Poorova

The selection of an appropriate reference period for determining the hydrological characteristics in Slovakia is of the utmost priority, particularly in the light of the observed changes in the hydrological regime of the watercourses in the last decades, since the last valid reference period 1961-2000 was established. We have analyzed the long-term discharge data from 113 water-gauging stations, to assess the deviations in moving averages of mean annual flows over 10-, 20-, 30-, 40-, and 50-year long periods.

Based on the results of comparison against the long-term mean annual flow values for the selected reference periods 1961-2000 and 1961-2020, we recommend considering the length of 30- to 40-years for the future reference period for hydrological applications. It is also important that the selected representative period will include the period after the year 2000.

We emphasize the need for further analysis of other hydrological characteristics, particularly in the area of the low flows, before finalizing the future reference period, as the dry periods after the year 2000 may lead to lowering the limits connected with minimum discharges. This may significantly affect sectors like water planning, water use, waste-water treatment, irrigation, nuclear reactor cooling, reservoir management, etc. The transition to a new reference period for hydrological characteristics should involve a thorough professional discussion, along with an analysis of potential economic impacts.

How to cite: Jeneiova, K., Blaskovicova, L., Kotrikova, K., Melova, K., and Poorova, J.: Key Considerations in Choosing the Optimal Reference Period for Hydrological Applications in Slovakia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8506, 2025.

EGU25-8618 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.5

Assessing water management vulnerability under future climate scenarios: the case of the reservoirs in the Seine River basin 

Julie Collignan, Maria-Helena Ramos, Alban de Lavenne, Charlotte Barbé, and Philippe Riboust

The high stakes surrounding the availability of water resources under future climate raise the need to make relevant climate-water projections available to water managers. However, beyond this information, there is also the need to account for water management current practices and future needs in terms of adapting operations to balance water availability and demand under future climate and water use pressures. This isparticularly the case when dealing with reservoirs and their ability to regulate floods and droughts.

This study aims at setting up a full modelling chain, from climate to reservoirs management, to address water availability and operational management needs under future climate and water demand conditions. Our case study is the Seine River basin in France and its four upstream reservoirs which are operated to regulate flows up to the city of Paris. We first co-designed with stakeholders the “what-if” scenarios to investigate, combining possible future climate and management states. We then set up a simplified modelling approach to allow us to address the stakeholder’s needs. This modelling framework relies on a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, coupled to different management scenarios (reservoir rule curves) and forced by contrasted climate projections. The model was calibrated and validated using historical climate, hydrological and reservoir operation datasets, while also relying on stakeholder consultation. The relevance of current reservoir management operations in a future climate where the intensity and frequency of low flows might increase was investigated. We used the results of the national EXPLORE2 project, which downscaled 17 pairs of RCM/GCMs from CMIP5 over France. We used the outputs of the national EXPLORE2 project, which downscaled 17 pairs of RCM/GCMs from CMIP5 over France.

Our results show that the modelling framework accurately reproduces the relative influence of the reservoirs on the downstream discharges over the historical period. The influence on low-flow support is on average around 15%, with a maximum influence that can reach up to 50% during summer and downstream up to Paris. We also show that this can be a good indicator to quantify the influence of reservoir management on low flow conditions under future climate.

This work received funding from the Horizon Europe under grant agreement No. 101059372 (STARS4Water project).

How to cite: Collignan, J., Ramos, M.-H., de Lavenne, A., Barbé, C., and Riboust, P.: Assessing water management vulnerability under future climate scenarios: the case of the reservoirs in the Seine River basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8618, 2025.

The main source of drinking water in Slovakia is groundwater, with about 80% of the water used for public supply coming from groundwater reserves. In Slovakia, we have areas that are supplied with drinking water from surface water trapped in water reservoirs such as, for example, water reservoir Starina in the east part of Slovakia, Nová Bystrica reservoir in the north of Slovakia, and in the south of the central part of Slovakia is Hriňová reservoir. In 2022, 83% of drinking water was sourced from groundwater abstractions and 17% from surface water abstractions. These abstractions are processed and evaluated as part of Slovakia’s water resource balance at the river basin level. We analyzed annual abstraction data for individual districts based on the intended use of the water. The data were examined over 10 years (2011–2021), using long-term average values for each district and sector (e.g., public water system supply, agriculture, and industry), and compared with consumption data for 2022. The increase or decrease in groundwater abstractions was then evaluated. The year 2022 was selected for analysis due to its classification as a dry year, characterized by low precipitation and runoff. The analysis results are presented in a map that shows surface and groundwater abstractions across Slovakia.

The analysis indicates that, in the dry year of 2022, 51% of surface and groundwater abstractions were used for public water supply systems, 5% for industrial purposes, and 44% for agricultural needs. Of the groundwater abstractions, 72% were allocated to public water supply, 4% to agriculture, and 24% to industry. On the other hand, the surface water abstractions were distributed as follows: 21% for public water supply, 6% for agriculture, and 73% for industrial purposes. Compared to the period from 2011 to 2021, there was a 6% increase in groundwater abstractions in 2022 (with a 3% increase for public water supply systems, a 14% increase for agriculture, and a 14% decrease for industry).

 

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the Contract no. APVV-23-0332.

How to cite: Kotrikova, K. and Slivova, V.: Analysis of the surface water and groundwater abstractions for the public water supply, agricultural and industrial purposes in the period 2012-2021 in comparison to 2022 , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9128, 2025.

In an era of rapid climate change, the need for reliable information to support adaptation has never been greater. Changes resulting from warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are influencing snowmelt dynamics, freeze-thaw cycles and basin response. These shifts may transform Canada’s environmental systems in profound and unprecedented ways. The Global Water Futures modelling research was developed to address these evolving challenges, providing insights into how Canada’s major river basins may respond to these changes. This work focuses on the pan-Canadian application of the MESH land-surface hydrology model across the Yukon, Fraser, Columbia, Mackenzie, Nelson, Churchill, Great Lakes-Saint Lawrence, and Saint John Basins, covering more than 5 million square kilometres. The model simulations integrate bias-corrected, downscaled climate projections to explore future scenarios. We detail the innovative workflows and tools developed for this research and present key findings on glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and shifting river flow regimes. These results underscore the critical need for adaptive, forward-thinking water resource management to build resilience and strengthen the adaptive capacity of Canada’s watersheds.

How to cite: Pietroniro, A. and Pomeroy, J.: Evaluating Changes in River Systems and the Cryosphere in Canada: Insights from the Global Water Futures Modeling Synthesis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14495, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14495, 2025.

Climate change is expected to raise groundwater temperatures, affecting more than 100 million people living in areas where temperatures exceed national drinking water standards. However, many of these projections are based on models rather than observations. As more countries implement continuous monitoring programs for the sustainable management of groundwater systems, analyzing trends in water level and quality data related to climate change is becoming more feasible. Therefore, the goal of this study was to utilize a 30-year record of water level and water quality data collected from 1,600 wells drilled into the unconfined and unconsolidated coastal aquifer of Israel.  We sought to identify trends in groundwater warming and explore their potential sources. High temperatures were generally related to wells in urban areas, while temperatures were lower under open fields and agricultural areas. However, the increasing trend in groundwater temperature was clear in both areas. We will investigate the correlation between well temperature and unsaturated zone thickness using well logs, and analyze temperature changes with distance from the Mediterranean Sea. Major ion data and a Piper diagram will be used to assess shifts in concentrations related to temperature changes. Although in its infancy, this study would shed light on some groundwater geochemical processes impacted by climate change.    

How to cite: Turkeltaub, T. and Bernstein, A.: Determining the causes of groundwater warming and its effects on groundwater quality in Israel's coastal aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15127, 2025.

EGU25-15712 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.5

A new framework for assessing clean water supply 

August Bjerkén, Jesper Svensson, Christian Alsterberg, and Michelle T.H. van Vliet

As climate change and a growing global population are putting increased pressure on our already stressed water resources, improving the ways we assess and manage clean water supply has quickly become one of our generation’s most pressing issues. While the emergence of new water treatment- and extraction techniques has allowed previously unobtainable water resources to be made accessible, there are still large quantities of water, while available at first glance, are unavailable from an allocation perspective. This includes water needed for the continued maintenance and operation of vital ecosystems services, water under quality constraints, and water deemed to be technically unfeasible or economically too expensive to obtain.

 

In this study we introduce a new flexible framework for assessing the total clean water supply for a predefined area and time period. We first defined the stored volume of water within the area through the spatial delineation of relevant water bodies, for which the maximum capacity and current storage was calculated. Next, a water budget was constructed on the basis of the stored volume and involving the assessment of societal and environmental needs within the area, local priorities, and constraining factors, including water under quality constraints and technical constraints. We then assessed the difference between the total allocated volume of water and actually water usage to account for and to identify areas of potential reuse and/or targeted measures. Finally, the total reclaimed and reusable water supply at the end of the period was assessed accounting for any legal and regulatory constraints, as well as any potential additional losses due to evapotranspiration. This finally resulted the quantification of  “clean water supply”.

 

To test the performance of the framework, a case study was carried out in the Goulburn River catchment, Australia, over the period of July 1st, 2023, and June 30th, 2024. Preliminary results show the potential of combing hydrological assessments with detailed data on water usage, water quality and technical constraints to better support water management and decision making. Furthermore, we found that of the total storage of 3.67 km3 available at the start of the period, roughly 50 % (1.88 km3) were either left unused or unclaimed at throughout the period. Of this, 0.09 km3 (5%) were removed to account for losses due to evapotranspiration. Next, a total volume of 1.73 km3 (92%) in the form of carryover rights and storage requirements were removed from the assessment, resulting in a mere 0.06 km3 (3%) of the remaining water were categorized as “Available clean water supply”.  While this suggest that there is a misconception of clean water supply in the Goulburn River catchment, more importantly the result of the assessment suggests that the framework to a great extent can be used to assess a wide range of technical, qualitative, and managerial constraints, while at the same time tracking water usage. This combined with the possibility to adjust both the spatial and the temporal aspects, suggest that the framework could be useful for clean water supply calculations throughout multiple regions around the world.

How to cite: Bjerkén, A., Svensson, J., Alsterberg, C., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: A new framework for assessing clean water supply, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15712, 2025.

EGU25-16378 | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Long term changes of river flow from a small agricultural catchment in the center of Poland 

Kazimierz Banasik, Bartosz Kierasiński, Katarzyna Karpińska, and Beniamin Więzik

Hydrological monitoring of daily discharge since 1966 in a small agricultural catchment of the Mławka River of 66.2 km2, located in the macro-region of the North Mazovian Lowland, which is central part of the Vistula River basin, have shown a progressive decrease in renewable water resources in the considered multiannual periods of 1966–1990 and 1991–2020. With a similar mean annual precipitation of about 565 mm in both multiannual periods, the mean annual discharge decreased by 15.6%, i.e. from 171 mm to 144 mm, respectively in 1966–1990 and 1991–2020. This corresponds to mean flow (SSQ) in the multiannual periods of 358 and 0.302 m3·s–1, respectively. The runoff coefficient decreased from 0.303 to 0.265. Recent data, of the hydrological years 2021-2024, confirm the decrease in renewable water  resources.

This may be attributed to the increased evapotranspiration caused both by an increase in the mean annual air temperature (by about 0.30°C per 10 years in 1951–2020) in the region and an increase in the proportion of forested land in the catchment by about 10% (from 23% to 33%) at the expense of arable land.

The low flows in the considered multiannual periods, characterised by the mean flow from annual minimums (SNQ), decreased even more significantly by 29.1%, i.e. from 0.147 to 0.104 m3 s–1.  

How to cite: Banasik, K., Kierasiński, B., Karpińska, K., and Więzik, B.: Long term changes of river flow from a small agricultural catchment in the center of Poland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16378, 2025.

EGU25-17529 | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Predicting the hydrochemical impacts of sea level rise and intrusion in the lagoon ecosystem of the Maspalomas coastal dune field Natural Reserve (Gran Canaria, Spain) through reactive transport modelling 

Jon Jiménez, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Carlos Baquedano, Jorge Martínez-León, Samanta Gasco, Rodrigo Sariago, Juan C. Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Water resources and ecosystems in volcanic islands frequently exhibit significant vulnerability to water contamination from anthropogenic or natural sources, seawater intrusion, or freshwater scarcity. This vulnerability stems from the typically limited water storage capacity and the reduced recharge and volume of freshwater bodies. In the south of Gran Canaria Island (Canary Islands, Spain) is found the Maspalomas Coastal Dune Field Natural Reserve, a protected and unique aeolian landscape and ecosystem in Europe. Within this coastal dune system, a lagoon is found, whose ecosystem survival is highly dependent on salinity, pH, oxygenation, and organic matter content, as well as processes of evaporation, anoxia (lack of oxygen), and eutrophication. Furthermore, the projected sea level rise according to the IPCC within the next 100 years could enhance seawater intrusion into the freshwater aquifer that feeds the lagoon.

A reactive transport model has been performed in the context of the European project NATALIE, using the code PHAST to assess the potential effect of enhanced seawater intrusion into the Maspalomas lagoon. The model was implemented through a 2D mesh representing the lagoon formed in a unit of aeolian sands. Two water samples of the lagoon and seawater were used as input solutions and the sea level rise up to 1 m was simulated, displacing the mixing zone up to 10 m inland. The evolution of saturation indices (SI) of calcite, gypsum and halite and the chemical reactions of pH buffering and mineral precipitation in the lagoon were implemented in PHREEQC and introduced in the PHAST model. The simulation showed that a seawater fraction up to 72 % could be reached by mixing with the freshwater feeding the Maspalomas lagoon. This enhanced intrusion could lead to electrical conductivities (EC) up to 38,000 µS/cm, and neutral to alkaline pH up to 7.8, conditions to which several present acuatic plants as Juncus acutus and Tetraena fontanesii are not adapted. Besides, with seawater fractions over 65 % the lagoon reached oversaturation in calcite and was close to oversaturation in gypsum and halite, whose precipitation could affect the hydraulic properties of the connection between the lagoon and the shallow aquifer. A managed periodical freshwater recharge of the lagoon with urban runoff through SUDS (Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems) is proposed as part of the tasks of the European project NATALIE.

How to cite: Jiménez, J., Marazuela, M. Á., Baquedano, C., Martínez-León, J., Gasco, S., Sariago, R., Santamarta, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Predicting the hydrochemical impacts of sea level rise and intrusion in the lagoon ecosystem of the Maspalomas coastal dune field Natural Reserve (Gran Canaria, Spain) through reactive transport modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17529, 2025.

EGU25-19078 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.5

Assessment of climate change impact on the inflows to Gatun Lake, Panama  

Maria Gabriela Castrellon, Joshua Trotman, Hervé Singamong, Andreja Jonoski, and Ioana Popescu

The Panama Canal is a critical waterway for international maritime trade. The canal's operations rely heavily on Gatun Lake, a 425 km² reservoir situated approximately 26 m above sea level, which supplies the water required for its lock system. Each lockage consumes 50 to 120 million gallons (0.19 to 0.45 hm3) of water, with 32 to 36 lockages typically occurring daily. Gatun Lake also provides drinking water to about half of the metropolitan population in Panama. Over the past decade, Gatun Lake's water levels have been significantly impacted by three major droughts, raising concerns about the Panama Canal's reliability for shipping traffic. Modelling inflows to Gatun is essential for assessing the impacts of climate change on its water level as well as developing robust management strategies. To this end, hydrological models of three major representative sub-catchments contributing to Gatun Lake were developed using HEC-HMS and future scenarios were simulated using climate projections from CMIP6. Results show a projected decrease in mean annual flow of 10% to 25% with respect to historical conditions for two out of the three sub-catchments studied.

How to cite: Castrellon, M. G., Trotman, J., Singamong, H., Jonoski, A., and Popescu, I.: Assessment of climate change impact on the inflows to Gatun Lake, Panama , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19078, 2025.

EGU25-19216 | Orals | HS1.3.5

The response of river intermittence to projected climate change and associated anthropogenic adaptations   

Yao Li, Seifeddine Jomaa, Gunnar Lischeid, and Michael Rode

River intermittence is a pivotal characteristic of freshwater systems and holds substantial ecological importance. The alteration of river intermittence due to climate change has raised concerns and has been primarily studied based on changing meteorological conditions. However, the mediating effects of groundwater and the influence of anthropogenic activities induced by climate change remain insufficiently explored.

This study quantitatively assessed the changes in river intermittence under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) through the coupling of a fully distributed hydrological model (mHM) and a groundwater model (MODFLOW) up to the 2100s. The methodology was applied to the Bode catchment (3200 km²) in central Germany, one of the driest regions of the country. We evaluated the model from 2000-2024 using the observed data. We investigated the effects of the delayed response of the groundwater table on river intermittency using the inverse Fourier transform of the recharge. Additionally, we examined the impact of increased groundwater extraction on river persistence.

The results indicate that, compared to the reference period (2000–2014), the total active river network is projected to contract by 9.6%, 6.9%, and 3.8% under the SSP585, SSP370 and SSP126 pathways, respectively, by the 2080s. Additionally, the duration when the wetted fraction falls below the mean value of the reference period is expected to increase by 48 days under the SSP126 pathway and by 101 days under the SSP585 pathway in the 2080s. The impact of groundwater recharge delay predominantly affects transient small streams, particularly those experiencing changes in river-groundwater flow direction, with the magnitude of this effect varying based on their distance to the river. While climate-induced drying poses a notable challenge, water extraction is expected to have a more pronounced effect on local stream persistence, albeit within a restricted spatial range.

How to cite: Li, Y., Jomaa, S., Lischeid, G., and Rode, M.: The response of river intermittence to projected climate change and associated anthropogenic adaptations  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19216, 2025.

EGU25-19843 | ECS | Orals | HS1.3.5

Assessment of future changes on hydrometeorological and river flow extremes in the Atrato river basin under CMIP6 scenarios 

Julio Isaac Montenegro Gambini, Luis Eduardo Pachón Pitalúa, and Francisco Carrasco Carrasco

The Atrato River Basin, a critical hydrological resource in Colombia, is increasingly vulnerable to the dual impacts of extreme precipitation events and water scarcity, driven by climate change. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in the basin, focusing on short-duration precipitation, peak river discharges, and low-flow conditions. Using state-of-the-art CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), daily precipitation and temperature projections are statistically and temporally downscaled. In addition, intensity, duration and frequency for historical and future scenarios were assessed. Hydrological modeling using conceptual models quantifies the impacts of projected changes on river flow extremes. This research highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies, including infrastructure upgrades and integrated water resource management, to mitigate climate-induced risks in the Atrato River Basin. It underscores the importance of robust uncertainty quantification for effective climate adaptation planning.

How to cite: Montenegro Gambini, J. I., Pachón Pitalúa, L. E., and Carrasco Carrasco, F.: Assessment of future changes on hydrometeorological and river flow extremes in the Atrato river basin under CMIP6 scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19843, 2025.

EGU25-19980 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Estimations of environmental flow requirements in a tropical region 

Nurul Afiqah Mohamad Arbai and Masayasu Irie

Tropical regions are characterised by a high variance in precipitation and experience significant fluctuations in river discharge. These fluctuations in discharge play a dominant role in shaping environmental flow (EF), which is vital for the survival of river ecosystem. However, EF assessment has never been made mandatory for water infrastructure construction and water withdrawal activities in some of the developing countries, including Malaysia. This, in the future, may lead to the severe disturbance of the river ecosystem due to the positive human population growth that requires more needs for water.

 Estimation from global EF can be referred to; however, it was found to have a poor correlation with local estimates; thus, the assessment needs to be conducted locally. Besides, the determination of EF for ungauged basins is still considered a difficult problem. Most frequently, hydrological modelling is used for this purpose prior to any further calculation. Thus, through this study, we aim to determine if there are consistent relationships in EF requirements across different basin sizes that will assist in scalable management strategies.

 The hydrology-based method introduced by Smakhtin and Anputhas  (IWMI, 2006) was selected to calculate EF requirements at 62 sites in Malaysia with available observed records for more than 20 years. The results showed that, on average, 43% of the annual discharge was needed by the river to sustain its ecology, with the assumption that the basins are maintained in fair conditions. In the most regulated conditions, at least 20% of the annual discharge needs to be reserved to maintain the function of rivers as water bodies where, in this case, the ecosystem has significantly modified. We also found that the basin area well corresponds to the discharge and EF with a determination coefficient higher than 0.95. Therefore, it can be acknowledged that the suggested equation (0.0146 × basin area in km2 + 2.90) may be used for determining EF in any river reach in the tropical regions, especially Malaysia.

 The estimated EF corresponding to basin management serves as a preliminary basis for sustaining river ecosystem. Overall, our study provides a reference for water practitioners and policymakers, especially for the rapid judgement on the quantity of water resources that need to be conserved.

How to cite: Mohamad Arbai, N. A. and Irie, M.: Estimations of environmental flow requirements in a tropical region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19980, 2025.

EGU25-20604 | Orals | HS1.3.5

Human freshwater appropriation in Europe: patterns and resilience prospects 

Alberto Pistocchi, Berny Bisselink, Francesca Moschini, emanuele quaranta, yanni trichakis, faycal bouaoui, bruna grizzetti, ignacio hidalgo gonzalez, and nihat zal

Water appropriation for human use can have significant impacts on the functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Reducing water appropriation can be a first step towards increasing water resilience and adapting to climate change, and it is therefore important to understand its spatial and sectorial distribution. In this contribution, we analyze the level of water appropriation in European watersheds, using available estimates of water demand and water availability.

We map an indicator of the level of appropriation of blue water in European river basins by broad water-using sectors, namely irrigation, livestock breeding, public (domestic) supply, the industry and thermal power plant cooling for energy generation. Water demand in a river basin may often represent 10-50% of renewable water availability and, in some regions, it may even exceed 100%, implying that either non-renewable water or transfers of water among river basins are needed.

The analysis shows that the level of water appropriation varies significantly across Europe, generally with a north-south gradient as expected, obviously reflecting the interplay between demand and availability. There is also a significant variability in the patterns of potential appropriation among sectors. In general terms, irrigation, systematically occurring in highly appropriated river basins, tends to be the main driver of water appropriation. Livestock demand is quantitatively less relevant at European scale, but occurs in relatively highly appropriated river basins as well. Energy represents the second most significant driver of appropriation, but tends to occur in less appropriated river basins. Most regions in central Europe show relatively uniform mixes of water demand, with no single sector taking the lion’s share of water appropriation, whereas the dominance of certain sectors, generally energy or irrigation, emerges in many northern as well as southern regions. The trend in water availability that can be anticipated on the basis of available climate projections will exacerbate the current situation particularly for irrigation and livestock.

Based on estimated volumes of domestic wastewater that can be reused for agricultural irrigation, we show how water reuse may substantially help reduce water appropriation in Europe. In general, we show that there is a widespread potential for reuse of water across sectors, that could be further analysed taking into account also other factors (particularly on water quality). Reducing water appropriation by water reuse after achieving efficient water use through appropriate management (“efficiency first”) may contribute substantially to water resilience.

How to cite: Pistocchi, A., Bisselink, B., Moschini, F., quaranta, E., trichakis, Y., bouaoui, F., grizzetti, B., hidalgo gonzalez, I., and zal, N.: Human freshwater appropriation in Europe: patterns and resilience prospects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20604, 2025.

EGU25-20674 | ECS | Posters on site | HS1.3.5

Reconstruction of a long series of Natural Discharges: an application to the Tiber River basin 

Irene Pomarico, Elena Volpi, Antonio Zarlenga, and Aldo Fiori

Natural discharges are crucial for the quantitative assessment and sustainable management of water resources, enabling the assessment and prediction of water availability and the impact of climate change. The aim of this study is to present a simple methodology for the reconstruction of natural discharges and identify direct and indirect withdrawals. It is based on groundwater recharge and runoff data provided from the BIGBANG v.6 database (ISPRA), which collects national-scale maps of the main hydrological variables in the period 1951-2022. Specifically, the framework is based on the calibration of three parameters, which are (i) the infiltration coefficient, (ii) the ratio between the hydrogeological and catchment area and (iii) storage coefficient of the linear reservoir model. The procedure was applied to the Tiber River basin, closed at the Ripetta station. This methodology enables the reconstruction of long natural flow time series at monthly scale, which are fundamental to catchment and water resource management policy.  Furthermore, the methodology is able to effectively identify dynamic differences between surface and subsurface flows. The results demonstrate the procedure's high accuracy in reproducing natural flow rates, with minimal errors. The developed approach provides a valuable tool for watershed-scale water resource management, supporting policy planning, evaluation, and implementation.

How to cite: Pomarico, I., Volpi, E., Zarlenga, A., and Fiori, A.: Reconstruction of a long series of Natural Discharges: an application to the Tiber River basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20674, 2025.

HS2.1 – Catchment hydrology in diverse climates and environments

EGU25-819 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

A Comprehensive Snow Modeling Using Multi-Source Data and Assimilation for a Refined Characterization of a Complex Mediterranean Basin 

Mevlüthan Sakallı, Arda Şorman, Francesco Avanzi, Simone Gabellani, and Aynur Şensoy

Climate change significantly impacts snow dynamics, thereby affecting water resources, especially in countries like Türkiye, where snow is crucial for water supply. This study focuses on one of the largest Mediterrenain river basins, the Seyhan Basin (21,890 km²), contributing significantly to Türkiye's overall water resources. The basin's extensive agricultural activities and significant hydropower potential necessitate sustainable water management for its long-term sustainability. The basin's complex mountainous topography and its location at the intersection of Mediterranean and continental climate zones, combined with limited data availability, present significant challenges for hydrological modeling. These factors make the Seyhan Basin an ideal region for analyzing changes in snow potential and related water resources.

This study aims to refine spatial snow characterization in this complex Mediterranean basin through comprehensive snow modeling using multi-source data and assimilation. The spatial and temporal accuracy and reliability of Snow Multidata Mapping and Modeling (S3M) model outputs for snow-water equivalent, snow depth, and snow-covered area are assessed. The main S3M model inputs, derived from ERA5-Land, include hourly temperature, relative humidity, shortwave radiation, and precipitation data from 2012 to 2022. Model inputs of temperature and precipitation are validated against observations from 12 meteorological stations within and around the basin. The S3M data assimilation framework improves model estimates by incorporating satellite snow cover area data (Eumetsat H SAF products). Additionally, snow-covered area estimates are compared to MODIS, IMS, and ERA5-Land datasets, while snow-water equivalent measurements from five in situ stations, ERA5-Land and H SAF datasets provide independent validation for SWE outputs. The performance of daily aggregated model results is evaluated using different metrics as RMSE, KGE, and NSE, besides spatial performance analysis as false alarm rate and hit scores for the whole period. The results indicate that NSE performance is 0.90-0.95 for SCA, RMSE is 5-30 mm for SWE and the false alarm rate is calculated as 0.15-0.35 for SCA.

How to cite: Sakallı, M., Şorman, A., Avanzi, F., Gabellani, S., and Şensoy, A.: A Comprehensive Snow Modeling Using Multi-Source Data and Assimilation for a Refined Characterization of a Complex Mediterranean Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-819, 2025.

EGU25-3907 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Impact of Changing Cryosphere on Streamflow Seasonality of Three River Basins in Southwest China 

Yiyan Huang and Yuting Yang

Three River Basins (TRB) in southwest China: the Jinsha, Lancang and Nu River, which originate from the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), are distributed with cryosphere elements such as snow, permafrost, and glacier. The upstream and midstream areas of the TRB show a trend of warming and wetting, but the downstream regions with the temperature rising shows a trend of decreasing precipitation under climate change. This has led to the vanishing cryosphere and changes in the hydrological process of the TRB. How the changes in a single meteorological forcing or cryosphere element influence the amount and seasonality of streamflow remains unclear. This study simulated the different streamflow components and analyzed the amount and seasonality of streamflow in all sub-basins using a distributed hydrological model by controlling the changes of cryosphere elements and meteorological forcing during 1961-2020. The results showed that the contribution of snowmelt to streamflow in the midstream sub-basins was relatively high during April-June with a decreasing trend; the increasing glacier meltwater contributed to the streamflow in the source areas from June to September, especially in the Jinsha and Nu River; groundwater affected by permafrost degradation exhibited an increasing trend in the downstream reaches of the TRB. The spring rise timing was advanced and the recession timing was delayed with the reduction of snowfall fraction and the degradation of permafrost, and this effect gradually weakened from the upstream to the downstream areas of the TRB. Less glacier generally delayed the timing of summer streamflow in all reaches of the study basins. The seasonal variation of streamflow in the TRB decreased with the vanishing cryosphere. In addition, results of two experiments by using the multiyear mean precipitation and air temperature as forcing manifested that precipitation was the dominant factor causing changes in annual runoff and seasonal variation of streamflow, and increase in air temperature played a significant role in reducing the runoff and streamflow seasonality of the TRB. These findings shed light on the difference of changes in the streamflow process between sub-basins under climate change and provide a useful reference for water resource management in future for the TRB in southwest China originating from the QTP.

How to cite: Huang, Y. and Yang, Y.: Impact of Changing Cryosphere on Streamflow Seasonality of Three River Basins in Southwest China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3907, 2025.

EGU25-4154 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Novel Approach to Spatiotemporal Analysis of Snow Cover Pattern using ERA 5 Dataset Over Finland 

Ramin Faal Gandomkar, Mojtaba Saboori, Epari Ritesh Patro, Pertti Ala-Aho, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

Variations in Arctic snow cover, including Finland, can impact the ecosystem, hydrological cycle, biodiversity, and many other physical processes. Getting a consistent picture of long-term changes in relevant snow cover pattern (SCP), including phenology, duration of snow cover and snow-free days, is crucial for understanding the regional dynamics of the water resources. Prevalent SCP assessments excluded critical features such as the first and last days with maximum snow cover, which are essential for a thorough spatiotemporal analysis. To address these gaps, this study utilized a novel convolution-based method coupled with K-means clustering to analyze SCP features using ERA5-Land data spanning from 2000 to 2020 across Finland. This approach was employed to cluster the country into four distinct regions based on SCP, enhancing our understanding of spatiotemporal variability and dynamics.  The largest cluster spanned 114,738 km2 with maximum snow cover duration (Dmax) lasted 189 days of 220 snow-covered duration (Dtotal). Conversely, the smallest cluster in southern and coastal areas covered 41,630 km², experiencing Dmax of 85 out of 123 days of Dtotal. Using K-nearest neighbours method and based on the mentioned four clusters, the 20 annual SCP features images of Finland were classified. The effect of air temperature and precipitation in the classification’s results were also investigated. To assess the accuracy of annual classification, and to analyze snow cover dynamics in relation to air temperature and precipitation, three indices were obtained to measure anomalies occurred during snow accumulation period, the period with maximum snow cover, and snowmelt period.

How to cite: Faal Gandomkar, R., Saboori, M., Patro, E. R., Ala-Aho, P., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Novel Approach to Spatiotemporal Analysis of Snow Cover Pattern using ERA 5 Dataset Over Finland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4154, 2025.

Mountain catchments serve as critical water towers, where the interplay between snow dynamics and baseflow plays a fundamental role in regulating water availability across both seasonal and interannual timescales. While current mesoscale studies have challenged traditional conceptualizations of baseflow and revealed diverse landscape roles, the mechanisms linking snow conditions to baseflow generation across elevation gradients remain poorly understood. This study examines these mechanisms using the HBV model applied to 93 catchments across Czechia and Swiss mountain regions (1965-2019). Our preliminary findings revealed elevation-dependent patterns in baseflow generation, with increases in annual and summer baseflow fractions during periods of increased snowfall. Snow water storage (SwS) emerged as a critical buffer in high-elevation catchments, maintaining stable baseflow patterns despite changing climate conditions. We identified distinct temporal lag effects between snowmelt and baseflow generation that vary with elevation, leading to significant differences in seasonal flow dynamics between lower and higher elevation catchments. These insights advance our understanding of mountain snow hydrology and offer valuable implications for water resource management in snow-dominated regions under increasing climate pressure.

How to cite: Acheampong, J. N. and Jenicek, M.: Snowmelt Contribution to Seasonal Baseflow Dynamics: Multi-Catchment Analysis of Hydrological Responses in Mountain Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6220, 2025.

Accurate estimation of spatiotemporal snowpack is crucial for understanding the hydrological processes associated with snowmelt in mountainous regions. Incorporating in-situ and remote sensing observations into physics-based snowpack models through data assimilation techniques can mitigate model uncertainties and improve estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE). However, implementing data assimilation techniques over a large spatial domain remains challenging, due to the sparse and uneven availability of observations across varying spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing data are also constrained by gaps caused by revisit intervals, cloud cover, and complex topography in mountains. Therefore, this study proposes an adaptive snow data assimilation framework with satellite remote sensing data utilizing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The adaptive EnKF assimilates daily sparse high-resolution, remote-sensed snow cover data into the snow model of the distributed wflow_sbm hydrological model, applied to the Rhône River basin—a region in France heavily dependent on snow and glacier meltwater for runoff across multiple scales. Using this adaptive EnKF, we simulate spatiotemporal SWE and river runoff in the Rhône River basin from 2016 to 2019. Results demonstrate that snow data assimilation significantly improves streamflow predictions in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Compared to the simulations without assimilation, our model indicates a spatial decrease in snowmelt runoff during winter (October to March) and a spatial increase during the melt season (April to June). These results demonstrate that adaptive data assimilation not only effectively integrates high-resolution satellite data with hydrological models but also enhances the representation of snowmelt processes, leading to more accurate forecasts of river runoff. This approach paves the way for developing snow reanalysis and forecasting tools, seamlessly integrating sparse information from high-resolution satellite observations into physics-based models, offering valuable insights for water resource management in basins governed by snowmelt-driven hydrological processes.

How to cite: Cheng, M., Vossepoel, F. C., Lhermitte, S., and Hut, R.: Adaptive assimilation of spatiotemporal sparse satellite-derived snow cover data into hydrological modelling in the Rhône River basin, France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6433, 2025.

EGU25-6998 | Orals | HS2.1.1

Investigating Ice Layer Dynamics and Hydrological Processes in Snowpacks Using Ground Penetrating Radar and Energy Balance Analyses  

Michel Baraer, Mathis Goujon, Lisa Michaud, Annie Poulin, and Eole Valence

This study examines the formation, evolution, and hydrological role of ice layers in snowpacks during dynamic winter conditions, with a focus on liquid water infiltration, moisture redistribution, and structural transformations. The research was conducted at the Sainte-Marthe Experimental Watershed (BVE), located 70 km west of Montreal, Quebec, Canada. From February 8 to April 3, 2023, the study captured 50 freeze-thaw cycles and 7 substantial rain-on-snow (ROS) events, which significantly influenced snowpack properties and hydrological behavior.

 A downward-looking Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) system was used to provide high-resolution data on snowpack stratigraphy and changes in dielectric properties. Complementary observations, including ultrasonic snow depth sensors, Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes, and weekly snow pit measurements, supported the GPR interpretations. These data were further contextualized with energy balance analyses to link external meteorological drivers—such as radiative fluxes and precipitation inputs—to internal snowpack processes.

 The results highlight the critical role of ice layers as dynamic hydrological barriers. During a significant ROS event, March 17, the GPR captured a rapid increase in two-way travel time (TWT) and amplitude changes as liquid water accumulated above an impermeable ice lens. Over time, the lens degraded, becoming permeable and enabling deep water infiltration. This permeability shift was corroborated by amplitude data, which revealed contrasting moisture responses above and below the lens. Four other events monitored before and after March 17 served in capturing the evolving influence of ice layers in influencing surface meltwater retention and subsurface flow pathways.

By emphasizing the hydrological dynamics of ice layers, this study advances understanding of snowpack behavior under changing winter conditions. The integration of GPR, field measurements, and energy balance analyses provide a powerful framework for examining the interplay between meteorological inputs and internal snowpack transformations, particularly during critical events involving ice layers.

How to cite: Baraer, M., Goujon, M., Michaud, L., Poulin, A., and Valence, E.: Investigating Ice Layer Dynamics and Hydrological Processes in Snowpacks Using Ground Penetrating Radar and Energy Balance Analyses , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6998, 2025.

EGU25-7604 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Dynamic precipitation phase partitioning reduces model bias for some snow and streamflow metrics across the Northwest US  

Bhupinderjeet Singh, Mingliang Liu, John Abatzoglou, Jennifer Adam, and Kirti Rajagopalan

While the importance of dynamic precipitation phase partitioning to get accurate estimates of rain versus snow amounts has been established, hydrology models rely on simplistic static temperature-based partitioning. We evaluate changes in model bias for a suite of snow and streamflow metrics between static and dynamic partitioning. We used the VIC-CropSyst coupled crop hydrology model and performed a comprehensive evaluation using 164 snow telemetry observations across the Pacific Northwest (1997-2015).  We found that transition to the dynamic method resulted in a better match between modeled and observed (a) peak snow water equivalent (SWE) magnitude and timing (~50% mean bias reduction), (b) daily SWE in winter months (reduction of relative bias from -30% to -4%), and (c) snow-start dates (mean reduction in bias from 7 days to 0 days) for a majority of the observational snow telemetry stations considered (depending on the metric, 75% to 88% of stations showed improvements). We also find improvements in estimates of basin-level streamflow and peak SWE over streamflow. However, there was a degradation in bias for snow-off dates, likely because errors in modeled snowmelt dynamics—which cannot be resolved by changing the precipitation partitioning—become important at the end of the cold season.  These results emphasize that the hydrological modeling community should transition to incorporating dynamic precipitation partitioning so we can better understand model behavior, improve model accuracies, better support management decision support for water resources, and prioritize improvements in melt dynamics to improve timing simulations.

How to cite: Singh, B., Liu, M., Abatzoglou, J., Adam, J., and Rajagopalan, K.: Dynamic precipitation phase partitioning reduces model bias for some snow and streamflow metrics across the Northwest US , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7604, 2025.

EGU25-8286 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Spatial downscaling of snow water equivalent estimates for hydrological applications in Alpine Europe using machine learning 

Tijmen Schults, Gijs Simons, Jill van Etten, Arthur Lutz, Carla Catania, Peter Burek, Jennie Steyaert, and Niko Wanders

Accurate Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) data is essential for hydrological modelling, flood forecasting, estimating terrestrial water storage, and understanding climate change impacts on water systems. The high horizontal and vertical heterogeneity of snowfall, snow accumulation and snowmelt restrict the usage of ground-based SWE observations for region-scale estimations. Climate reanalysis products like ERA5-Land provide SWE estimates globally but are often unable to capture local snow processes due to their limited spatial resolution, especially in mountain areas with heterogeneous topography.

To address these limitations, this study presents a Random Forest Regression (RFR)-based approach to downscale ERA5-Land SWE data to a finer spatial resolution using open-source global datasets and in situ SWE measurements. The RFR model was trained on a dataset of SWE observations at 383 snow weather stations between 1999 and 2019. Predictor datasets included climate reanalysis of ERA5-Land SWE and DEM-derived topographical covariates. The SWE downscaling methodology was trained and validated for the Upper Danube River Basin and its applicability in hydrological models is investigated in two case studies in Alpine Europe: CWatM model simulations for the Upper Danube and PCR-GLOBWB simulations for the Rhine-Meuse Basin.

ERA5-Land significantly overestimated SWE with a PBIAS of 444% at snow weather station locations in the Upper Danube River Basin. Applying the downscaling approach significantly reduced this bias to -11%. Downscaled SWE strongly correlated with the observations with an R² of 0.81 and an RMSE of 17.87 mm for the Upper Danube. The downscaled SWE showed improved temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt, and enhanced spatial distribution. These initial results highlight the potential of the RFR downscaling approach for improving snowmelt runoff calibration in the two case studies. In the Rhine-Meuse study, we validate the applicability of the RFR model to regions outside the training domain. The open-source and easily accessible nature of the predictor datasets ensures accessibility and adaptability across diverse landscapes.

How to cite: Schults, T., Simons, G., van Etten, J., Lutz, A., Catania, C., Burek, P., Steyaert, J., and Wanders, N.: Spatial downscaling of snow water equivalent estimates for hydrological applications in Alpine Europe using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8286, 2025.

EGU25-9237 | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Assessment of Snow Water Equivalent Estimates from Reanalysis and Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in Northern Italy 

Gokhan Sarigil, Francesco Avanzi, Mattia Neri, and Elena Toth

Snow water resources play a crucial role in Mediterranean mountainous regions, serving as natural reservoirs that sustain water supply during dry seasons. The accurate estimation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is fundamental for water resource management, though direct measurements remain sparse in mountainous terrain. Current SWE estimation approaches face distinct challenges: for instance, large-scale reanalysis products derived from land-surface models (such as ERA5-Land) are limited by sparse data assimilation of mountain observations, the coarse scale of the modeling grid (often running in the 10+ km), a poor representation of orographic precipitation, and globally optimized parameterizations that may not suit complex mountain environments. On the other hand, hydrological models are constrained by uncertainty in input data, precipitation-phase determination and simplified snow thermodynamics. These limitations necessitate systematic evaluation across different terrain types to improve mountain snow monitoring.

This study compares SWE estimates across Northern Italy by evaluating large-scale reanalysis products and rainfall-runoff modeling against the high-resolution IT-SNOW dataset (Avanzi et al., 2023). The IT-SNOW reference dataset provides validated SWE estimates across Italy at 500m spatial resolution with comprehensive data assimilation from satellite and in-situ measurements. The evaluation examines regional and global reanalyses at various spatial scales, alongside the SWE simulations obtained at catchment scale with the GR6J rainfall-runoff model (Coron et al., 2017) coupled with the CemaNeige snow routine (Valéry et al., 2014), locally calibrated against the observed streamflow. By analysing over 100 catchments during 2010-2023, we assess the performance of these estimates across diverse topographical and climatic conditions to identify their strengths and limitations.

Our methodology involves a two-scale evaluation approach: at the gridded scale, we compare IT-SNOW with reanalysis products; at the catchment scale, we evaluate the CemaNeige-GR6J rainfall-runoff model simulations of the SWE volumes. Both analyses span seasonal and interannual timescales to assess the variations of SWE estimates.

The findings of this comparative analysis advance our understanding of SWE estimation methods across the Italian mountainous regions by systematically evaluating the strengths and limitations of different estimation approaches. Future research will focus on integrating SWE estimates from IT-SNOW into the rainfall-runoff model calibration phase, aiming to develop more robust hydrological models capable of better representing snow dynamics.

REFERENCES

Avanzi, F., Gabellani, S., Delogu, F., Silvestro, F., Pignone, F., Bruno, G., ... & Ferraris, L. (2023). IT-SNOW: a snow reanalysis for Italy blending modeling, in situ data, and satellite observations (2010–2021), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 639–660. doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-639-2023.

Coron, L., Thirel, G., Delaigue, O., Perrin, C., & Andréassian, V. (2017). The suite of lumped GR hydrological models in an R package. Environmental modelling & software, 94, 166-171. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.002.

Valéry, A., Andréassian, V., & Perrin, C. (2014). ‘As simple as possible but not simpler’: What is useful in a temperature-based snow-accounting routine? Part 1–Comparison of six snow accounting routines on 380 catchments. Journal of hydrology517, 1166-1175. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.059.

How to cite: Sarigil, G., Avanzi, F., Neri, M., and Toth, E.: Assessment of Snow Water Equivalent Estimates from Reanalysis and Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9237, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9237, 2025.

EGU25-10423 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Reconstructing the water balance of selected glacierized catchments in High Mountain Asia since 1970 

Achille Jouberton, Thomas E. Shaw, Evan Miles, Marin Kneib, Stefan Fugger, Michael McCarthy, Yota Sato, Koji Fujita, and Francesca Pellicciotti

In High Mountain Asia (HMA), declines in water stored in glaciers and seasonal snowpacks have been widespread in recent decades. Changes are however highly heterogeneous, with glaciers in the Pamirs experiencing near-neutral mass balance while fast rates of mass loss are observed in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Modeling can provide an understanding of mass balance seasonality and mountain hydrology at a spatial and temporal resolution not achievable by observations, and validated simulations can extend over long time scales. Quantifying the water balance at high elevations requires the estimation of snowfall amounts, which is challenging due to uncertainties in reanalysis products and rare precipitation measurements. Differences in accumulation regimes and precipitation decadal variability complicate the assessment of precipitation phase change and its role in glacier and snow mass changes under warming conditions.

In this study, we leverage in-situ hydro-meteorological observations and climate reanalysis to run a mechanistic, highly resolved land-surface model and reconstruct snow and glacier mass changes since 1970 at three benchmark glacierized catchments with contrasting climatic conditions in HMA. The catchments cover areas between 100 and 200 km2, span elevations ranging from 2000 to 6000 m a.s.l., and are located in the Northwestern Pamir (Kyzylsu), Nepalese Himalayas (Trambau-Trakarding) and Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (Parlung No.4). The land-surface model is run at hourly and 100 meters resolution, and its performance is evaluated using in-situ snow depth, surface albedo, remotely sensed snow cover and multi-decadal geodetic glacier mass balance. 

At all sites, we find declining trends in snowfall, snow depth and glacier mass balance between 1970 and 2023. A decline in the snowfall to total precipitation ratio was found at all sites (-0.005, -0.005 and -0.03 decade-1 at Kyzylsu, Trambau-Trakarding and Parlung No.4 respectively), but was only pronounced at the Southeastern Tibetan site. The decadal variability in precipitation amount, rather than phase, controls most of the snowfall and glacier mass changes, although the shift in precipitation type from snowfall to rainfall had a substantial contribution to the recent snowfall decline at Parlung No.4 (30% of the snowfall decrease between 1970-1999 and 2000-2023), where we simulate the most rapid glacier mass loss, in agreement with regional assessments of geodetic mass balances. Glacier mass loss has only been marked at Kyzylsu since 2018, following a near-neutral mass balance period characteristic of the Pamir-Karakoram Anomaly. Positive runoff trends were found at Parlung No.4 (+6%/dec) and Trambau-Trakarding (+2%/dec), but not at Kyzylsu (-2.5%/dec) where the recent increase in ice melt only partially compensated for reduced precipitation and for a relative increase in evapotranspiration.  Future simulations should assess how snowfall, glacier mass balance and runoff trends will evolve as climate warming strengthens in these catchments.

How to cite: Jouberton, A., E. Shaw, T., Miles, E., Kneib, M., Fugger, S., McCarthy, M., Sato, Y., Fujita, K., and Pellicciotti, F.: Reconstructing the water balance of selected glacierized catchments in High Mountain Asia since 1970, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10423, 2025.

EGU25-11032 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Glacier melt contribution to future streamflow in the Rhône bassin (France) 

Olivier Champagne, Anthony Lemoine, Isabelle Gouttevin, Sophie Cauvy-Fraunié, Thomas Condom, Gilles Delaygue, and Flora Branger

The Alps are impacted by dramatic changes in the context of global warming with large implications for hydrology. The Rhône bassin, draining a large part of the french and Swiss Alps, has already been the subject of hydrological modelling using J2000-Rhone. In this study, we present the integration of a glacier algorithm in the hydrological model J2000-Rhône, the validation of snowmelt, icemelt and streamflow, and the future projections of these processes. The results show that snowmelt, icemelt and streamflow are satisfactorly simulated by J2000-glaciers in the Rhone basin. By the end of the 21st century, the major changes will be a large increase of streamflow in winter but a decrease in summer associated to earlier snowmelt, a decrease of precipitation and glacier shrinkage. On the Arve and upper Rhône catchments, the remaining glaciers will still be crucial to sustain the streamflow in dry summers.

How to cite: Champagne, O., Lemoine, A., Gouttevin, I., Cauvy-Fraunié, S., Condom, T., Delaygue, G., and Branger, F.: Glacier melt contribution to future streamflow in the Rhône bassin (France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11032, 2025.

EGU25-12258 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Integrating snow-water equivalent simulated by a physically based model into a lumped model in an Alpine catchment in Italy 

John Mohd Wani, Giacomo Bertoldi, Michele Bozzoli, Daniele Andreis, and Riccardo Rigon

In the European Alps, seasonal snow plays a crucial role in hydrology, functioning as a reservoir by storing precipitation during winter and releasing it during the summer. Snow is highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in low- and mid-elevation mountain regions like the European Alps. In snow-fed basins, any changes in snowmelt contribution to river discharge can significantly impact agriculture, domestic water supply, and hydro power generation. 

Hydrological modeling employs a variety of models, ranging from simple lumped models to physically-based, spatially distributed models, to simulate river discharge. These models either have a simple temperature-based or a physically based snow module to simulate the snow dynamics. Distributed, physically based models can provide accurate insights into snow dynamics. However, their high input data requirement, overparameterization, and high computational demands make them challenging to use for operational purposes. In contrast, simple lumped models require less input data, standard snow parameters and are well-suited for operational applications.

In this study, we present an approach to improve both runoff forecasting and spatial snow pattern estimation by integrating the snow water equivalent (SWE) simulations from a physically based GEOtop model into the lumped GEOframe system. We evaluate and compare different approaches, ranging from direct substitution to a mass-conserving statistical downscaling method. The methodology is applied in the Non Valley catchment, Italy, where water is important for agriculture, hydropower, and other uses.

Our initial results from 01-01-2017 to 15-09-2022 at hourly time step show that the GEOframe is able to simulate the discharge very well with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) value of 0.87 and 0.72 during the calibration and validation, respectively. This approach aims to preserve the computational efficiency and feasibility of lumped models while incorporating the improved physical representation of snow processes and spatial variability from a physically-based snow model.

Acknowledgement

The work of J.M.W. has been funded by Fondazione CARITRO Cassa di Risparmio di Trento e Rovereto, grant number 2022.0246.

How to cite: Wani, J. M., Bertoldi, G., Bozzoli, M., Andreis, D., and Rigon, R.: Integrating snow-water equivalent simulated by a physically based model into a lumped model in an Alpine catchment in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12258, 2025.

EGU25-12459 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Investigating the seasonal influence of atmospheric rivers on runoff generation during rain-on-snow 

Alexis Bédard-Therrien, François Anctil, and Daniel Nadeau

Numerous studies in the western United States have shown that atmospheric rivers (AR) have been responsible for flood-prone rain-on-snow (ROS) conditions such as intense rainfall, rapid warming of the air, and important snowmelt. Intense AR events were also shown to affect snowpack depth on a seasonal scale. The documentation of such impacts is less extensive in other areas, such as the east coast of North America. Meanwhile, climate projections indicate that the intensity and frequency of extreme events associated with atmospheric rivers will increase for the region, leading to an elevated hydrological impact caused by AR. This study focuses on the Côte-Nord region in Quebec (Canada), which experiences important yearly snow accumulation (>300 mm) and where snowpack monitoring is crucial due to the high hydroelectricity production in the area. The impacts of AR are analyzed by combining hydrometeorological observations with automated snow water equivalent measurements at 42 sites for the 2012–2021 period, as well as atmospheric river intensity scales derived from reanalysis. The ROS events were separated between those accompanied by AR and those that were not, resulting in 149 AR and 58 non-AR events. The intensity of the events was represented by the generated water available for runoff (WAR), which combines net rainfall and snowmelt. A seasonal analysis revealed that early winter was characterized by a high frequency of AR-associated events (36), exhibiting the greatest yearly frequency of high-scale AR events. The median WAR for AR events during this period was 36 mm, with rainfall predominating. In instances of extreme precipitation, WAR was significantly amplified by snowmelt, resulting from the rapid warming of shallow snowpacks. In late winter, there was a more balanced distribution of non-AR (54) and AR (74) events, which were characterized by generally lower intensity scales. This resulted in lower median WAR of, respectively, 30 mm and 19 mm for AR and non-AR events. However, the contribution of snowmelt during these events closely resembled that of rainfall, due to the generally warmer temperatures and the presence of lower-scale AR. The seasonal behaviour of the ROS events suggests a precipitation phase sensibility for WAR generation and variability in energy balance components. The sensitivity to precipitation phase is expected to vary between early and late winter, due to their distinct WAR compositions. Similarly, the event energy balance is bound to differ between early and late winter due to the contrasting conditions provided by low- and high-scale AR. This study underscores the distinctions between early and late winter ROS events and the necessity of accounting for the effects of atmospheric rivers on snowpack dynamics. Additionally, the findings outline considerations for snowpack modelling to more accurately represent extreme weather events projected to increase in frequency in the future.

How to cite: Bédard-Therrien, A., Anctil, F., and Nadeau, D.: Investigating the seasonal influence of atmospheric rivers on runoff generation during rain-on-snow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12459, 2025.

EGU25-12766 | Orals | HS2.1.1

The potential of stable isotopes of water for process analysis and modeling in cryosphere-dominated environments 

Bettina Schaefli, Natalie Ceperley, Xinyang Fan, and Tom Müller

Streamflow generation in cryosphere-dominated environments results from the complex interplay of precipitation accumulation and release processes across spatial and temporal scales. While the general streamflow dynamics of such environments are very well understood and relatively easy to simulate, the actual underlying storage-release processes are more difficult to reliably represent in models than what is currently thought.  Using stable isotopes of water to trace hydrological flow paths, estimate water age or attribute streamflow sources has become standard in hydrological process research. The isotopic ratios of oxygen or hydrogen in rainfall and snowfall commonly show substantial differences in alpine environments. Accordingly, it is tempting to think that they represent an ideal tracer to quantify the hydrologic partitioning at various time scales (from the event scale to the seasonal scale) and across a range of processes (ice melt, snow melt, rain-on-snow, infiltration, groundwater recharge, vegetation water uptake, baseflow generation). In this contribution, we discuss the potential of isotope analyses for cryosphere-dominated catchments regarding process research and modeling, what essential insights we can derive from stable isotopes of water for downstream water resources management under a changing climate, and we provide recommendations for future sampling campaigns.  

How to cite: Schaefli, B., Ceperley, N., Fan, X., and Müller, T.: The potential of stable isotopes of water for process analysis and modeling in cryosphere-dominated environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12766, 2025.

EGU25-13326 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Remote Sensing of Mountain Snow from Space: Developing Accurate Snow Products for Efficient Water Resource Management in Morocco’s Atlas Mountains 

Mostafa Bousbaa, Abdelghani Boudhar, Christophe Kinnard, Gemine Vivone, Haytam Elyoussfi, Eric A. Sproles, Bouchra Bargam, Karima Nifa, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

In semi-arid regions of the Mediterranean, snowmelt and precipitation are vital water sources for downstream communities. Here, snow-covered mountain peaks serve as natural water reservoirs, playing a crucial role in regulating river flow and replenishing groundwater. This research leverages remote sensing to compensate for the lack of ground-based hydroclimatic data, focusing on the latest version of the MODIS snow cover product (version 6, V6). The study aims to refine the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) threshold and develop localized models for fractional snow cover (FSC) estimation tailored to the Moroccan Atlas Mountains. For this purpose, 448 Sentinel-2 scenes across six different regions in the Atlas Mountains were used to adjust the NDSI threshold and develop FSC models. Moreover, 8419 MOD10A1 and 7561 MYD10A1 images covering the period from March 2000 to June 2023 were processed to improve cloud filtering and generate a high-precision daily snow cover product for the region. Significant improvements were achieved in reducing cloud-covered pixels from 25.7% to 0.4%. Two NDSI MODIS threshold selection schemes were tested: the standard global threshold of 0.4 and a locally optimized threshold of 0.2. The local threshold demonstrated superior accuracy, significantly reducing snow cover estimation errors compared with the global threshold (0.4) for both Terra and Aqua MODIS images. The newly developed FSC models demonstrate high accuracy, displaying high correlation coefficients (average of 0.84) and low error measures when comparing MODIS-derived FSCs with high-resolution Sentinel-2 data. The improved daily snow cover product was compared with high-resolution snow maps obtained from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery in different regions of the Moroccan Atlas. On average, the product showed a mean correlation coefficient of 0.96, a mean absolute error of 0.22%, and a mean reasonable negative bias of -0.17%. This research concludes that the improved daily snow cover product offers a robust understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow extent. These advancements offer considerable potential improvements to modelling snowmelt contribution to the water balance, supporting efficient water resource management in the southern Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Bousbaa, M., Boudhar, A., Kinnard, C., Vivone, G., Elyoussfi, H., A. Sproles, E., Bargam, B., Nifa, K., and Chehbouni, A.: Remote Sensing of Mountain Snow from Space: Developing Accurate Snow Products for Efficient Water Resource Management in Morocco’s Atlas Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13326, 2025.

EGU25-14202 | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

A Lagrangian-Based Multi-Layer Snow Model for Improved Snowpack Simulation in the Sanjiangyuan Region 

Yinghui Jia, Yuefei Huang, and Shuo Zhang

The cryosphere is one of the regions most profoundly affected by climate change. Since snowmelt plays a critical role in runoff generation, understanding its evolving contribution to runoff in the context of global warming is essential for informed water resource management and planning. Existing snow modules embedded in hydrological models typically focus on energy exchanges at the snowpack surface, neglecting internal changes in temperature and density. As a result, these models often fail to accurately capture variations in snow depth.

This study addresses these limitations by developing a multiple layer snow model based on a Lagrangian framework, incorporating liquid water and air content within the snowpack. Conservation equations for energy and mass were established for the surface, inner, and bottom layers of the snowpack, and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method was employed to solve equations. The model effectively simulates temperature and density profiles of snow layers, as well as the timing and location of melting and refreezing events within the snowpack. Additionally, the snow and rain separation algorithm was enhanced by integrating multiple meteorological datasets.

Applied to the Sanjiangyuan region in China with corrected precipitation data, the model yielded improved simulations of snow depth, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.77. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of snow cover aligned more closely with remote sensing observations, highlighting the model's enhanced accuracy and applicability.

How to cite: Jia, Y., Huang, Y., and Zhang, S.: A Lagrangian-Based Multi-Layer Snow Model for Improved Snowpack Simulation in the Sanjiangyuan Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14202, 2025.

In our study, we focused on the Panj River basin, located in the Eastern Pamirs, a region characterized by extreme climatic conditions, low air temperatures, minimal precipitation, extensive permafrost, seasonal snow cover and graciarization. The Panj River, one of Tajikistan's primary rivers, is a left tributary of the Amu Darya, formed by the confluence of the Vakhandarya and Pamir rivers. Its estuary lies in southeastern Tajikistan.

In Panj river, the seasonal snow reserves significantly influence the timing of snow and glacier melt and determines water availability in the region. In years with minimal snow accumulation, snow cover melts out by early July, with glacier melt beginning shortly thereafter. In contrast, during average snowy years, snow cover melts in the latter half of July, followed by glacial melt approximately 10 days later. During dry winters and low-water years, glacial runoff partially compensates for reduced river flow during the flood season.

To study the runoff formation and temporal contribution to Gunt River, we employed both observational methods (e.g., topographic maps and catalogs) as well as digital techniques using remote sensing data from Landsat and MODIS satellite programs. The MODSNOW-Tool program, which analyzes MODIS snow cover area data and can be used for hydrological forecasting purposes, was used in determining snow cover melt and the onset of glacier melt dates. This enabled precise calculations of snow and glacial runoff in the Gunt River Basin. Additionally, MODIS snow cover data was utilized to forecast water availability during the flood season, providing critical early warnings to water management organizations and emergency services across Central Asia and beyond.

With this presentation we would like to demonstrate achieved results and potentially disseminate scientific outcome to be used by other research communities or decision makers. 

How to cite: Niyazov, J., Gafurov, A., and Gafurov, A.: Glaciation, snow cover and runoff formation in the Gunt River basin analyzed using the remote sensing data. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15080, 2025.

EGU25-15091 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Isotopic insights into cold region hydrology: Decoding isotopic signatures of snow and glacier in Khangeri glacier, North-eastern Himalaya.  

Madhusmita Nanda, Uma Narayan, Archana M Nair, and Suresh A Kartha

The hydrology of the glacier-fed systems plays a critical role in maintaining sustainability, water availability, and livelihood in the downstream region. The Khangeri glacier of the north-eastern Himalaya belongs to the Mago basin, which is a small catchment in the major Brahmaputra river system. Understanding the isotopic characteristics of these cold regions offers a unique lens to decode the dynamics of snow and glacier behaviour to the regional water resources. This study investigates the stable isotopic signature of snow, ice, glacier, and meltwater within the Khangeri glacier system, employing the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) as tracers. The isotopic analysis was performed using the Liquid Triple Isotopic Water Analyser (L-TIWA) following the conventional analytical procedure for laser-based, off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (ICOS). The isotopic analysis reveals distinct seasonal variations, with heavier isotope enrichment during the premonsoon period and depletion during the postmonsoon period. All the snow samples show regression lines with similar slopes and intercepts greater than the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL), but the glacier samples show a regression line with a lesser slope and intercept than the GMWL. This study also identifies the critical processes involved in the fractionation of isotopes during snow/glacier melting and isotope mixing, which shapes the isotopic signature of meltwater coming downstream. This isotopic study offers the significance of this tracer technique in understanding hydrological processes and predicting climate change on cryospheric hydrology.

Keywords: Stable isotope, Snow, Khangeri glacier, North-eastern Himalaya, Mago basin

How to cite: Nanda, M., Narayan, U., Nair, A. M., and Kartha, S. A.: Isotopic insights into cold region hydrology: Decoding isotopic signatures of snow and glacier in Khangeri glacier, North-eastern Himalaya. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15091, 2025.

EGU25-15593 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

The impact of snow cover and precipitation phase on groundwater recharge 

Karin Bremer, Ilja van Meerveld, Kevin Bishop, Michal Jeníček, Lukáš Vlček, and Jan Seibert

Catchment storage affects the runoff response to snowmelt or rainfall events. Although changes in snow cover will affect streamflow responses, there is currently a lack of knowledge of how changes in snow cover will affect groundwater storage. This is important as summer low flows are often sensitive to changes in groundwater storage. This study aims to investigate how groundwater level fluctuations differ during rainfall versus snowmelt events and if the effect of the precipitation phase on groundwater recharge and storage varies across a catchment.

This study uses data from high-frequency measurements from 44 wells from the 20-ha Studibach catchment in the pre-alps in Switzerland (2010-2024 data), 48 wells from the C6 and C2 catchments in the Krycklan catchment in Sweden (2018-2024 data), and five wells from the Rokytka catchment in the Vydra catchment in Czech Republic (2013-2023 data). It analyses the response of the groundwater during periods with snow cover (rain-on-snow events), during snowmelt events, and rainfall events and whether these differences depend on the location of the catchment (as represented by, for example, the topographic wetness index, slope, and land cover). Furthermore, it determines the correlation between the site characteristics and how this differs for these three types of events. These results will be helpful to understand better how changes in snow due to cover climate change will affect groundwater recharge and storage, and thus streamflow.

How to cite: Bremer, K., van Meerveld, I., Bishop, K., Jeníček, M., Vlček, L., and Seibert, J.: The impact of snow cover and precipitation phase on groundwater recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15593, 2025.

EGU25-16624 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Combined Use of Remote Sensing Data and Melting Models for Estimating Glacier Melt Contributions to Runoff 

Riccardo Barella, Ezequiel Toum, Pierre Pitte, Mariano Masiokas, and Carlo Marin

In the context of climate change, the declining contribution of snowmelt to runoff underscores the need for precise quantification of glacier meltwater contributions. Accurate differentiation between snowmelt and ice melt is crucial but challenging, requiring detailed knowledge of glacier surface land cover. High-resolution optical remote sensing data from platforms like Landsat and Sentinel-2 provide a valuable tool for assessing glacier surface cover, leveraging their rich spectral information to distinguish snow from ice effectively.

The inherent limitation of cloud occlusion in optical imagery can be mitigated by integrating high-resolution datasets with daily low-resolution observations through gap-filling techniques. These land cover maps can be used as input for a range of melting models, from simple temperature-index models to more complex physically-based models.

A preliminary study was conducted on the Hintereisferner glacier in Austria, a well-documented site with extensive historical data. The study compared glacier melt estimates derived from gap-filled high-resolution satellite data, orthorectified and classified webcam imagery, and terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data (Voordendag et al. 2023). Results revealed strong agreement between the satellite-based melt maps and those derived from webcam and TLS measurements, demonstrating the potential of this approach.

Future applications will focus on reference glaciers in the Andes, where glacier melt contributions to downstream water resources are more significant than in Alpine catchments. The methodology aims to enhance our understanding of glacier dynamics and support water resource management in regions heavily reliant on glacier-fed runoff.

This work has been done in the context of the project SNOWCOP. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Research and Innovation Actions programme under Grant Agreement 10180133.

 

References:

Voordendag, A., Goger, B., Klug, C., Prinz, R., Rutzinger, M., Sauter, T., & Kaser, G. (2023). Uncertainty assessment of a permanent long-range terrestrial laser scanning system for the quantification of snow dynamics on Hintereisferner (Austria). Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, 1085416.

How to cite: Barella, R., Toum, E., Pitte, P., Masiokas, M., and Marin, C.: Combined Use of Remote Sensing Data and Melting Models for Estimating Glacier Melt Contributions to Runoff, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16624, 2025.

EGU25-16691 | Orals | HS2.1.1

Future of Snowmelt Hydrology and Hydropower: A Case Study of Türkiye’s Mountainous Basins 

Aynur Sensoy, Yusuf Oğulcan Doğan, Gökçen Uysal, and Ali Arda Şorman

Climate change significantly impacts global water resources, particularly in snow-fed mountainous basins where reservoir operations and hydropower generation are crucial. This study investigates future snowmelt runoff, water resource management, and hydropower production under climate change scenarios for two headwater basins in Türkiye: Peterek on the Çoruh River in the Eastern Black Sea region and Göksu on the Seyhan River in the Mediterranean region. These basins were selected for their similar topographies but distinct climatic conditions, representing regions predicted to experience varying climate change impacts.

An ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CORDEX-Europe database, adjusted for local bias corrections, was employed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, along with Global Warming Levels (GWL) from the Paris Climate Agreement. The HBV-Light model simulated future reservoir inflows (2020–2099), revealing significant reductions in snow accumulation and inflows due to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Reservoir operations and hydropower generation projections were conducted using the Water Resources Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model, predicting a 4–9% reduction in hydropower generation for the Çoruh Basin and a 10–35% reduction for the Seyhan Basin over the final decades (2076–2099).

To adapt to these changes, four alternative management strategies were evaluated to optimize reservoir operations under climate challenges. This study emphasizes the importance of comprehensive scientific assessments for policymakers in understudied, snow-dominated transboundary river basins, particularly those with significant energy production potential. The findings contribute to improved water and energy management by providing critical insights into climate-driven changes in reservoir storage, flow patterns, and hydropower generation.

How to cite: Sensoy, A., Doğan, Y. O., Uysal, G., and Şorman, A. A.: Future of Snowmelt Hydrology and Hydropower: A Case Study of Türkiye’s Mountainous Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16691, 2025.

EGU25-17124 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

Linking observed glacier mass losses and streamflow trends globally 

Marit Van Tiel, Jakob Steiner, Matthias Huss, Walter Immerzeel, Rodrigo Aguayo, Christoff Andermann, Sarah Mager, Santosh Nepal, Eric Pohl, Ekaterina Rets, Thomas V Schuler, Kerstin Stahl, Lander van Tricht, Tandong Yao, and Daniel Farinotti

Ongoing glacier retreat is causing the loss of a critical water resource in mountain regions, with wide-ranging downstream impacts. These include shifts in streamflow seasonality, change in water availability, and changes to low-flow conditions, either exacerbating or alleviating them. To date, most hydrological impact studies have relied on model simulations for specific regions or catchments, often driven by future climate change scenarios. However, evidence on the hydrological impact of glacier retreat based on direct observational data is scarce due to the limited accessibility of in-situ data. To address this, we have assembled a comprehensive dataset of streamflow observations from approximately 600 glacierized catchments (10–1000 km²) around the world. By integrating this dataset with geodetic estimates of glacier mass change for each individual glacier globally, we quantify the contribution of net glacier mass loss to streamflow across diverse mountain regions. Our study identifies where decadal glacier mass losses (2000–2010 and 2010–2019) align with observed streamflow trends in both magnitude and direction, and where other hydrological processes are more dominant. Streamflow trends and variations are analyzed both at an annual and seasonal scale with a specific focus on hydrograph characteristics such as high flows, low flows, and the melt season. Our results highlight the spatial heterogeneity of glacier retreat impacts across mountain regions and their downstream implications.

How to cite: Van Tiel, M., Steiner, J., Huss, M., Immerzeel, W., Aguayo, R., Andermann, C., Mager, S., Nepal, S., Pohl, E., Rets, E., V Schuler, T., Stahl, K., van Tricht, L., Yao, T., and Farinotti, D.: Linking observed glacier mass losses and streamflow trends globally, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17124, 2025.

EGU25-18065 | Orals | HS2.1.1 | Highlight

Glaciers and their declining role in buffering current and future megadroughts in the Southern Andes 

Álvaro Ayala, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Daniel Farinotti, David Farías-Barahona, Pablo Mendoza, Shelley MacDonell, James McPhee, Ximena Vargas, and Francesca Pellicciotti

Megadroughts are multi-year precipitation deficits that cause severe hydrological, ecological, agricultural or socioeconomic droughts, and they are increasing world-wide in duration, severity and extension. The Chilean Megadrought is among the most severe, persistent and extensive droughts on record in South America (from 2010 to present), and offers an ideal study case to understand the importance of glaciers during periods of water stress. Here, we simulate the response of glaciers in the Central Andes of Chile and Argentina to both the ongoing Chilean Megadrought and to megadroughts projected to occur by the end of the century under climate change scenarios.

We use the TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model to simulate the evolution, mass balance and runoff of the 100 largest glaciers in the Southern Andes between 30°S and 40°S, representing a total of 78 km3 of ice volume (63% of the total glacier volume in the region). TOPKAPI-ETH is a spatially distributed physically-based model with parameterisations of mass redistribution due to ice flow, avalanching and ice melt under debris, as well as snow albedo decay and distributed ice albedo, which are key elements to represent the impact of snowfall reduction on surface melt. We run the model at high horizontal (100 m) and temporal (3-hour) resolutions forced by gridded meteorological data. Parameters are calibrated and evaluated for each selected glacier using geodetic mass balance and surface albedo for the period 2000-2019. The model is then used to simulate the period 2000-2099 using outputs from four Global Climate Models (GCM) under a moderate (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. End-of-century megadroughts are defined as the driest 10-year period during 2075-2100 for each GCM and RCP. We use the decade 2000-2009 as a reference period, since it has been identified as a period of near-neutral glacier mass balance in the study area. The Chilean megadrought caused a precipitation deficit of −36±11% across glaciers, but total glacier runoff (sum of snowmelt, ice melt and rainfall) during 2010-2019 remained nearly unchanged (decrease of −2%) compared to the 2000-2009 reference period. These small changes were due to a 5% loss in total glacier volume that resulted in a 120% increase in total ice melt. In contrast to the relatively small changes in glacier runoff during 2010-2019, glacier runoff is projected to decrease significantly during end-of-century megadroughts compared to the reference period (2000-2009): by −10±4% under RCP2.6 and by −21±11% under RCP8.5 on an annual basis, and by −35±6% and −50±6% during summer. 

Our results demonstrate that ongoing glacier retreat reduces glaciers’ fundamental capacity to buffer precipitation deficits during extreme droughts, increasing water scarcity for ecosystems and livelihoods in the mountain regions of South America. Crucially, the future megadroughts will occur under substantially warmer conditions than the current megadrought, likely increasing water demand of downstream areas. 

How to cite: Ayala, Á., Muñoz-Castro, E., Farinotti, D., Farías-Barahona, D., Mendoza, P., MacDonell, S., McPhee, J., Vargas, X., and Pellicciotti, F.: Glaciers and their declining role in buffering current and future megadroughts in the Southern Andes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18065, 2025.

EGU25-18668 | Orals | HS2.1.1

Evaluating Glacier Melt's Role in Mitigating Hydrological Droughts in Mountainous Regions: Insights from the Adige River Basin 

Giacomo Bertoldi, Susen Shrestha, Stefano Terzi, Davide Zoccatelli, Mattia Zaramella, Marco Borga, Mattia Callegari, Andrea Galletti, and Roberto Dinale

Glacier meltwater is critical in sustaining streamflow during low-flow periods in mountainous regions. Nevertheless, glacier melt is often poorly or statically assessed in hydrological simulations, leading to partial considerations for effectively managing water, especially during droughts.

This study evaluates the contribution of glacier melt to summer flows and its capacity to mitigate hydrological droughts in the upper Adige River basin, located in the Italian Alps (6900 km2). To achieve this, a new dynamic glacier module was implemented into the ICHYMOD-TOPMELT hydrological model, enabling annual updates of glacier area and improved quantification of meltwater contributions under progressive glacier retreat (from 122 km2 in 1997 to 84 km2 in 2017).

The hydrological model exhibited robust performance metrics, with Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values of 0.82 for the overall study period and 0.65 for summer low-flow months. The dynamic glacier module accurately captured observed glacier area, mass balance, and seasonal melt trends. Validation against ASTER-derived glacier mass balance data for 2000–2019 revealed an error of 11%, underscoring the model’s ability to effectively represent long-term glacier dynamics.

Results indicate that glacier melt contributed an average of 5.86% to summer streamflow during the period 1997–2019, with significant spatial variability. In drier, more glacierized subbasins, melt contributions reached up to 30–40%, highlighting its importance in maintaining streamflow where precipitation is scarce. We analyzed also the interplay between snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature, and glacier melt during droughts, with SWE acting as a buffer to delay summer glacier melt under cooler conditions.

Severe drought years (like 2003, 2005, and 2022) demonstrated considerable variability in glacier melt contributions. In 2003, high temperatures and limited SWE led to glacier melt accounting for 14.4% of summer flows. By contrast, colder temperatures in 2005 reduced contributions to 6.3%. In 2022, while high temperatures drove glacier melt, reduced glacier areas led to lower absolute contributions (8.2%) compared to earlier droughts. If we had the same glacier area in 2022 like in 1997, glacier contribution could have been up to 14.6 %.

Findings highlight the declining capacity of glacier melt to buffer against hydrological droughts due to ongoing glacier retreat. With shrinking glaciers, future summer flows in the Adige River basin are expected to become increasingly dependent on precipitation and snowmelt, thereby heightening the vulnerability of water resources to climate variability.

Additionally, simulations showed that models using a static glacier area tend to overestimate glacier melt contributions, emphasizing the necessity of integrating a dynamic glacier modeling framework in hydrological models. These frameworks are crucial for accurately projecting future water availability and informing adaptive water resource management strategies in glacier-fed catchments.

How to cite: Bertoldi, G., Shrestha, S., Terzi, S., Zoccatelli, D., Zaramella, M., Borga, M., Callegari, M., Galletti, A., and Dinale, R.: Evaluating Glacier Melt's Role in Mitigating Hydrological Droughts in Mountainous Regions: Insights from the Adige River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18668, 2025.

EGU25-18909 | Orals | HS2.1.1

High-resolution and large scale modelling of seasonal snow in forests over the European Alps 

Clare Webster, Simon Filhol, Giulia Mazzotti, Marius Rüetschi, Louis Queno, Joel Fiddes, Tobias Jonas, and Christian Ginzler

Mid-elevation alpine regions are currently undergoing profound changes, with snow cover regimes shifting from seasonal to ephemeral. At the same time, forests around the world are also undergoing large changes due both natural and human-induced disturbances. Quantifying the impact of these environmental changes on seasonal snow requires physics based models that incorporate the relevant processes, as well as sufficiently detailed datasets of forest structure.

In the last decade, a new generation of snow models have been developed that explicitly represent interactions between forests, snow and meteorology. These models build on airborne lidar data  incorporating the effect of individual tree crowns on radiation transfer and snow interception processes, replacing the use of the leaf-area index and the “big-leaf” approach. However, these new models rely on airborne lidar data with limited spatial extents defined by arbitrary boundaries such as state, municipal and/or isolated hydrological catchments. Large spatial scale and global forest snow modelling is therefore still reliant on the “big-leaf” approach, which is known to have limited performance especially in heterogeneous forest environments. 

This study presents a modelling chain to predict seasonal snow accumulation and ablation in forests based on satellite forest products and global climate forcings (ERA5) applied across the European Alps as a first large-scale use case. The motivation to develop this modelling chain is to facilitate modelling forest snow processes across large spatial scales, especially in previously unstudied remote forested regions around the globe.

The model chain begins with a 10m canopy height model (CHM) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery. The CHM is used with Copernicus Land Monitoring Service forest products as input to the Canopy Radiation Model (CanRad) to calculate the forest structure and radiation transfer input variables for the Flexible Snow Model (FSM2). Forest variables are calculated at 25m sub-grid scale and averaged to run FSM2 at 250 m resolution over the European Alps. The ERA5 meteorological input for FSM2 are downscaled and aggregated at the hillslope scale using the climate downscaling toolkit TopoPyScale (TPS). Throughout the modelling chain, the model outputs are validated using airborne lidar data of both forest structure and snow cover in both the French and Swiss Alps. 

This model chain overcomes large-scale forest snow modelling challenges with 1) an explicit description of snow-canopy interactions, 2) a method compensating for the lack of a global canopy dataset, and 3) reduced computational cost of running large scale simulations. The main advantage of this approach is the ease of use and availability to run over much smaller domains as well as its relevance for global applications in fields such as permafrost, snow and hydrological research.

How to cite: Webster, C., Filhol, S., Mazzotti, G., Rüetschi, M., Queno, L., Fiddes, J., Jonas, T., and Ginzler, C.: High-resolution and large scale modelling of seasonal snow in forests over the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18909, 2025.

EGU25-19532 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.1

A multi-year analysis of forest snow and its contribution to the water cycle of Switzerland 

Vincent Haagmans, Giulia Mazzotti, Peter Molnar, and Tobias Jonas

Switzerland is covered 30% by forests, a considerable part of which receives snow in winter. Accurate information about where, when, and how much snow is stored across Swiss forests remains scarce due to the extensive area, complex terrain, and intricate forest snow processes leading to substantial spatiotemporal variability across scales. The Swiss Operational Snow-Hydrological Service (OSHD) runs a physics-based model system that includes detailed forest snow routines, providing daily nationwide snow distribution and snow melt grids at 250m resolution. While these routines have been validated on multiple occasions and at various research sites within and outside forests, the forest simulations have not yet been evaluated over large areas. As a first step, we therefore validated the model results against remotely sensed snow cover information from 3m Planet Labs RGB imagery. The evaluation revealed a very good match throughout the winter season, across regions and years, and within aspect classes, expressed by an overall mean absolute error in snow cover fraction of only 0.14. These results motivated us to analyze a multi-year dataset from the OSHD model system with regards to the relevance of forest snow for the hydrology of Switzerland. In the period investigated, hydrological years 2017-2024, Swiss forests stored, on average, a fifth of the total snow water equivalent during peak SWE. Yet, if hypothetically all forests in Switzerland were removed or lost, this would increase SWE storage by approximately 5% only. However, this does not render the impact of forests on snow water resources irrelevant. At smaller spatial scales and between years, the differences can be considerable for both the amount and timing of snowmelt runoff. In the Swiss Alps, on average, snow remains longer on the ground in the open, reaching its maximum storage later in winter and having significantly higher ablation rates than in adjacent forests. However, aspect matters as snow in south-facing slopes often deviates from the above with prolonged snow cover durations in the forest due to later melt-out. In summary, this study provides a detailed view of the effects of forests on snow water resources and quantifies how these differ with region, topography, season, and between years.

How to cite: Haagmans, V., Mazzotti, G., Molnar, P., and Jonas, T.: A multi-year analysis of forest snow and its contribution to the water cycle of Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19532, 2025.

EGU25-19745 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Inference of snow dynamics from streamflow observations: choose your metrics wisely 

Pau Wiersma, Bettina Schaefli, Nadav Peleg, Jan Magnusson, and Grégoire Mariéthoz

High elevation streamflow integrates the hydrological response to snow accumulation and melt. Accordingly, streamflow observations hold valuable but often underutilized information about snow water equivalent (SWE), offering a means to reconstruct historical SWE dynamics. We develop an inverse hydrological modelling framework to derive SWE estimates from streamflow: the framework generates a range of prior SWE scenarios, feeds them into a hydrological model and computes their likelihood based on how well corresponding streamflow simulations match observed streamflow. A critical step hereby is the choice of model performance metrics to be used as likelihood functions. To test our framework, we perform a range of tests in a synthetical setting, where we use known SWE data that we feed into the hydrological model and then apply the inversion framework to retrieve the SWE time series from the streamflow alone. The goal of this synthetic setting is to determine which streamflow metrics select realistic SWE scenarios (measured in terms of errors between the known SWE time series and generated scenarios).

Our results reveal that classical streamflow metrics, such as the Kling-Gupta and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies, show no correlation with any SWE timing or magnitude error metrics. Accordingly, minimizing these streamflow metrics does not result in an efficient selection of  SWE scenarios. In contrast, minimizing the mismatch of selected streamflow signatures, such as the baseflow index and the mean melt-season discharge, does lead to a selection of SWE scenarios with smaller errors. Overall, however, our results show that correlations between streamflow performance metrics and SWE performance metrics are generally weak and show significant year-to-year variability, indicating that streamflow metrics are often not informative for reconstructing SWE. 

Our synthetic modeling experiments are conducted in the Dischma catchment in Switzerland, using the OSHD Swiss SWE reanalysis product as the synthetic SWE observations (Mott et al., 2023). Synthetic streamflow observations are generated by feeding OSHD snow melt and MeteoSwiss rainfall into the hydrological model. 

Our findings are relevant for future studies aiming to evaluate or calibrate SWE simulations against streamflow observations, and will help us in the application of the inverse hydrological framework to real-world SWE reconstructions.

 

Mott, R., Winstral, A., Cluzet, B., Helbig, N., Magnusson, J., Mazzotti, G., Quéno, L., Schirmer, M., Webster, C., and Jonas, T.: Operational snow-hydrological modeling for Switzerland, Front. Earth Sci., 11, 1228158, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1228158, 2023.

How to cite: Wiersma, P., Schaefli, B., Peleg, N., Magnusson, J., and Mariéthoz, G.: Inference of snow dynamics from streamflow observations: choose your metrics wisely, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19745, 2025.

EGU25-21295 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.1

Assessing Snow and Firn Dynamics in Georgian Glaciers Using Local Data and Modeling 

Sopio Beridze and Carlo De Michele

Mountain glaciers play a crucial role in regulating water resources and are highly sensitive to climatic shifts. In this study, we applied and tailored the snow-firn dynamics model by Banfi and De Michele (2021) to analyze the snowpack and firn characteristics of Georgian glaciers. Meteorological data from a station (Shovi) near the Buba Glacier, located in the Racha region of Georgia in the Caucasus, were utilized. The model integrates snow and firn processes through mass balance, densification, and melt dynamics, allowing for detailed simulations of seasonal and interannual variability. By incorporating site-specific variables such as precipitation, temperature, snow cover, and wind speed, we simulated snow accumulation, firn densification, and melt processes. The model's performance was evaluated under local conditions, demonstrating its capability to replicate
seasonal variations in snow retention and density distribution. Using the Python programming language, our analysis highlights the critical role of wind-driven erosion and seasonal temperature thresholds in shaping snow-firn transitions. These findings offer valuable insights into the dynamics of Georgian glaciers, particularly in this highly active region characterized by numerous glaciers, substantial precipitation, and glacier-related
disasters. This work contributes to advancing glacier monitoring and informing regional climate impact assessments.

How to cite: Beridze, S. and De Michele, C.: Assessing Snow and Firn Dynamics in Georgian Glaciers Using Local Data and Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21295, 2025.

EGU25-567 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Unveiling Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Across Spatial Scales: Insights from a Tropical Montane Andean Catchment 

Jorge Ramón, Patricio Crespo, and Edison Timbe

Tropical montane catchments play a critical role in regional hydrological processes. However, rainfall-runoff dynamics and their change across spatial scales remain understudied. Understanding these processes is essential for water resource management in the face of climate change and human activities. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a multi-scale study of six sub-catchments in a lake-dominated tropical Andean system (~3200 – 4400 m a.s.l.), ranging from 6.19 km² to 90.7 km² over 10 years. We applied a multi-criteria approach including hydrometric data analysis, simple mixing models (MM) to determine geographical sources of streamflow contributions, mean transit time (MTT) estimations, and regression analyses to identify the key drivers of catchment behavior. Our results showed that runoff coefficients exhibited higher values on the headwater catchments suggesting that lakes regulate discharge primarily at small scales. Mixing model results showed that streamflow contributions stemmed from rainfall, wetland soil water, and groundwater from varying depths, with smaller catchments heavily influenced by wetlands and larger ones relying on groundwater recharge. Notably, groundwater contributions were higher below 3442 m a.s.l. suggesting a significant discharge area at this elevation. Discharge MTTs ranged from a few weeks in the smallest catchments to more than one hundred weeks in the largest, while groundwater MTTs extended from one hundred up to two hundred weeks, reflecting contributions from deeper zones. Regression analyses revealed that mean catchment slope, among other factors, significantly influenced hydrological behavior. This study demonstrates the value of a multimethod, multiscale approach for understanding rainfall-runoff dynamics in tropical montane systems. Our findings emphasize the regulatory role of headwater lakes at small scales and the previously underestimated role of deep groundwater contributions in larger catchments, providing a foundation for improved hydrological modeling and sustainable water management strategies in the tropical Andes.

How to cite: Ramón, J., Crespo, P., and Timbe, E.: Unveiling Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Across Spatial Scales: Insights from a Tropical Montane Andean Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-567, 2025.

Groundwater springs are essential water sources in hilly and mountainous regions. India’s springs are facing water scarcity due to groundwater overuse with increasing population growth and climate change. This study explores groundwater springs in Assam's Dima Hasao district, focusing on spring emergence, spring water chemistry, suitability for drinking and irrigation, and potential groundwater recharge zones, where these parameters are not well documented. Inventory parameters include GPS coordinates, rock type, slope measurement of the catchment, spring type, nature of discharge, and surrounding land use land cover. Instruments used for field observations were a GPS device GARMIN etrex10, a bucket of a specific volume, a stopwatch, and an on-site water testing kit-Hanna instrument. The springs found mainly emerge from fracture zones, joint planes, and contact zones between residual soil and bedrock with varying elevations, classified as fracture and depression springs. All springs that were evaluated at 52 sites are non-thermal springs. Discharge rates ranged from 0 to 12 liter/minute. As per Meinzer's classification, springs are ranked as sixth, seventh, and eighth magnitude. For chemical analysis, the concentration parameters were determined using a flame photometer, spectrophotometer, and volumetric titration methods as required for different parameters. Precipitation is found as the primary factor controlling the water chemistry. Water types identified included Ca-Mg-Cl-SO4, mixed Ca-Mg-Cl, and Ca-Mg-HCO3, indicating mixed temporary and permanent hardness. Stable isotope analysis of hydrogen and oxygen using Liquid-Triple Isotopic Water Analyzer (L-TIWA) revealed that recycled moisture contributed to the local precipitation with a few secondary evaporative effects. Water Quality Indices based on chemical parameters showed that 24% of samples needed treatment before consumption. Significant faecal contamination was noted which was determined from the microbial analysis i.e., most probable number determination. Adequate treatment of spring water is essential because of the microbial contamination. All springs are suitable for irrigation as per irrigation indices. Groundwater Potential Zones (GPZs) were created by integrating six layers using AHP and GIS techniques, classified from very poor to very high potential. The occurrence of springs in the area is compared with the GPZs and results have shown that sixth, seventh, and eighth-magnitude springs were located in predicted very high, high, moderate, and poor potential zone areas. The findings from this study were crucial for springshed management. Considering seasonal variations in spring water discharge and quality, mapping groundwater and groundwater springs potential zones, and constructing artificial recharge structures can contribute to effective water management in the hills of Dima Hasao and similar regions facing climate impacts. The study highlights the importance of regularly monitoring spring resources in Assam hills, artificial recharge to maintain spring discharge amidst climate change, and aiding policymakers in crafting sustainable management plans to meet the UN’s sustainable development goals XIII (climate change action).

Keywords: Spring, groundwater, groundwater potential, springshed management, water quality indices

 

How to cite: Gogoi, M. and Choudhury, R.: Inventory of Groundwater Springs in the Hills of Assam, India: An Approach to Springshed Development, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1104, 2025.

EGU25-1165 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

The 2022 - 2023 snow drought in the Italian Alps doubled glacier contribution to summer streamflow 

Martina Leone, Francesco Avanzi, Umberto Morra di Cella, Simone Gabellani, Edoardo Cremonese, Michel Isabellon, Andrea Monti, Riccardo Scotti, Paolo Pogliotti, and Roberto Colombo

Glaciers are vital resources for regulating water availability in mountainous regions, but their reducing size due to climate change threatens this crucial role, particularly during increasingly frequent and severe snow droughts. The exceptional 2022 and 2023 snow-drought episodes in the Italian Alps provide a critical opportunity for examining the role of glacier melt in mitigating drought impacts and analyse glacier response to these extreme events. This study thus investigates the impact of the 2022-2023 snow droughts on glacier melt contribution to summer streamflow in the Italian Alps, focusing on the Aosta Valley and Lombardy regions. We utilize glacier mass balance data collected from ablation stakes scattered over different glaciers and streamflow data from the Dora Baltea and Adda rivers to validate glacier melt estimates by S3M Italy, a spatially distributed operational cryospheric model. Once validated, we use glacier melt simulations generated using the S3M Italy to analyse how glacier melt contribution to streamflow during the snow droughts of 2022 and 2023 compared to the median of 2011-2023. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in glacier melt contribution to streamflow during 2022 and 2023 snow droughts. In both regions, the contribution of glacial melt to streamflow nearly doubled or tripled compared to average values from 2011-2023. Both 2022 and 2023 droughts resulted in an earlier onset of the melt season; however, 2022 was characterized by an earlier melt peak, while 2023 showed a prolonged melt season. These results emphasize the significant contribution of glacier melt to streamflow during severe drought events, highlighting the importance of considering glacial dynamics in developing robust water management strategies for alpine environments. The increasing frequency and severity of droughts underscore the urgency of this need.

How to cite: Leone, M., Avanzi, F., Morra di Cella, U., Gabellani, S., Cremonese, E., Isabellon, M., Monti, A., Scotti, R., Pogliotti, P., and Colombo, R.: The 2022 - 2023 snow drought in the Italian Alps doubled glacier contribution to summer streamflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1165, 2025.

EGU25-1541 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Quantifying seasonal snow and groundwater contributions to streamflow across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2020 

Olivia Miller, Matthew Miller, Patrick Longley, Morgan McDonnell, Daniel Wise, and Noah Schmadel

In the southwestern United States, the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) faces substantial water availability challenges. Snowmelt dominates hydrology in the basin, with much of the streamflow originating as meltwater. Snowmelt either becomes surface runoff or groundwater recharge, but this partitioning is not well constrained. Furthermore, groundwater recharge from snowmelt can discharge back into streams becoming an important component of streamflow. On average, over half of the streamflow in the UCRB is estimated to originate from groundwater discharge to streams, highlighting the importance of baseflow in sustaining surface water. Yet we have not quantified past spatio-temporal variability of baseflow and its contributions to streamflow, nor do we understand variations in streamflow and baseflow sources under shifting hydroclimates. Here we describe the development and application of linked models of baseflow and streamflow to characterize sources and transport pathways of both baseflow and streamflow in the UCRB at a seasonal timestep from 1986-2020, including the lagged delivery of groundwater to streams over longer timescales. Results suggest that baseflow yields are greatest in headwater catchments during spring, and that a majority of baseflow is derived from water that takes over one season to move through the subsurface to streams. We also find that although streamflow and its sources vary seasonally, on average across the basin, about half of streamflow is from baseflow, which is particularly important for sustaining streams outside the snowmelt season and at lower elevations.

How to cite: Miller, O., Miller, M., Longley, P., McDonnell, M., Wise, D., and Schmadel, N.: Quantifying seasonal snow and groundwater contributions to streamflow across the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1986-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1541, 2025.

EGU25-3220 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Alpine river temperature drivers and riverine heatwaves across Europe 

Maria Grundmann, Paul Astagneau, and Manuela Brunner

Water temperature is one of the main drivers of water quality in rivers. Due to climate change and anthropogenic land use changes, mean river water temperature has risen during the past 30 years, and extreme water temperatures over several consecutive days, so called riverine heatwaves, occur more often. Existing research on water temperature extremes has focussed on single rivers with few water temperature measurement stations, and the occurrence and spatio-temporal variability of riverine heatwaves across Europe has not been studied yet. Therefore, we aim to (1) improve the understanding of small-scale water temperature variability and its hydro-climatic drivers by conducting an extensive 3-year field campaign in an alpine catchment and to (2) study the large-scale variability of riverine heatwaves by analysing water temperature data over Europe.

To understand small-scale water temperature variability, we measure water temperature, discharge, air temperature, and relative humidity at 15 locations within the alpine Dischmá catchment (Switzerland) along a strong elevational gradient. With this data, we describe the variability of water temperature at different time scales, assess the impact of lakes, glacier ice, snowmelt, refreezing, shading, and groundwater on water temperature, and quantify the relative importance of hydrological, atmospheric and cryospheric drivers for the development of seasonal water temperature anomalies. Preliminary results show a dampening influence of groundwater influx on the diurnal water temperature amplitude, and raise questions as to whether diurnal valley winds may cool the river.

To study large-scale water temperature variability, we compile a dataset of water temperature and discharge data across Europe. Using this dataset, we analyse changes in the occurrence of riverine heatwaves over the past 30 years. Further, we track riverine heatwaves in space, observing longitudinal propagation within one river system and the spread of riverine heatwaves across different catchments.

An improved understanding of both small- and large-scale river water temperature variability will support efforts to counteract the negative ecological and economic impacts of warming rivers. 

How to cite: Grundmann, M., Astagneau, P., and Brunner, M.: Alpine river temperature drivers and riverine heatwaves across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3220, 2025.

EGU25-3737 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Hydroclimatic role of the Alps as sinks and sources of moisture 

Nike Chiesa Turiano, Marta Tuninetti, Francesco Laio, and Luca Ridolfi

The Alps have been recognised as hotspot areas for European climate change impacts. The ongoing and future changes in air temperature and precipitation impact the hydrological cycle not only for what concerns snowmelt and rainwater magnitude and timing but also for evapotranspiration fluxes. Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a major role in the water balance of alpine catchments as it pumps back to the atmosphere 60-80% of the precipitation and regulates precipitation recycling. Its importance is not limited to the alpine region but goes far beyond the Alps influencing the atmospheric moisture transport and impacting the water availability in downwind areas.

The recycling and downstream effects of changes in ET are not only hydrological but extend to economic and socio-political dimensions, particularly when countries rely on precipitation originating in foreign countries. Understanding these dynamics is crucial to addressing challenges in water resource management, land use, agriculture sustainability, and energy production.

While hydrological effects due to the decreases in snow and glacier cover over the Alps have been widely studied both at catchment and regional scales, studies on the downwind effects of the variations in ET at regional and continental scales are still few. This study addresses this knowledge gap by assessing both the geographical region of origin of the water that precipitates on the Alps and the areas where the evapotranspiration water from the Alps precipitates (constituting the so-called green water for these are., In doing this, we pay particular attention to precipitation recycling processes and the green water corresponding to agricultural lands, highlighting water vapor-mediated links between alpine and agricultural areas.

 

To effectively evaluate the destination of evapo-transpired water we employed the water vapor tracking model UTrack over the 2008-2017 mean year. Due to the spatial variability and the critical role of local factors in shaping ET within the alpine environment, we coupled UTrack with the high-resolution ERA5-Land dataset. This approach provides insights into the relationship between alpine water cycles and downstream hydrological dependencies.

 

How to cite: Chiesa Turiano, N., Tuninetti, M., Laio, F., and Ridolfi, L.: Hydroclimatic role of the Alps as sinks and sources of moisture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3737, 2025.

EGU25-4225 | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Impacts of Global Change on hydrologic and sedimentologic dynamics in the Northern Ebro Basin 

Arantxa Ortiz-Elorza and Carmelo Juez

ABSTRACT: The shift from rural to urban living has resulted in natural revegetation of abandoned rural areas located in mountainous regions. These land-use changes, combined with recent temperature and precipitation trends, affect water resources and sediment yields. Consequently, surface runoff, water infiltration, and sediment production/transport are impacted. Studies of this impact in mountainous areas are limited and partial, restricted to small basins. Therefore, this study examines the changes in both water and sediment fluxes in the northern draining region of the Ebro Basin. For the study, the SWAT+ hydrological model was employed. SWAT+ is a semi-distributed, deterministic, continuous basin model that operates on a daily time step. The model requires several inputs: a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), reservoir locations, land use map and index, soil type map and properties, as well as climatic data. The Ebro basin was divided into eight sub-basins and a hydrological model was developed for each. Calibration and validation processes were conducted in two steps: firstly, hydrological calibration and validation was performed and afterwards the process was repeated for the sediments. Firstly, hydrological calibration and validation were conducted at available and relevant gauging stations within the sub-basins. In total, over 30 stations were used as control points. The precision of the calibration and validation was evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Secondly, sediment calibration was conducted using available reservoir bathymetry data or sediment yield estimates from scientific literature. The sediment calibration aimed to reproduce values of the same order of magnitude as those derived from bathymetry or literature data. The resulting hydrologic and sedimentologic model was re-run and NSE, maintaining or improving the NSE values obtained from the hydrological calibration. NSE values, thus, ranged from 0.53 to 0.95 depending on the gauging station. The mean NSE for the entire basin under study was 0.75, indicating that a well-established hydrologic and sedimentologic model was achieved. Future work will involve, firstly, applying climate change scenarios from CMIP6 and comparing the current results to observe the response to climate change. Secondly, generating downscaled land-use change maps to accurately represent the evolution of land-use change in each sub-basin. This approach will allow for the analysis of the impacts of climate change alone and in combination with land-use change.

 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This work is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) through the Horizon Europe 2021 Starting Grant program under REA grant agreement number 101039181 - SEDAHEAD.

How to cite: Ortiz-Elorza, A. and Juez, C.: Impacts of Global Change on hydrologic and sedimentologic dynamics in the Northern Ebro Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4225, 2025.

EGU25-5685 | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Mountain groundwater monitoring with seismic ambient noise: what to do next ? 

Luc Illien, Christoff Andermann, Christoph Sens-Schönfelder, Kristen Cook, Jens Turowski, Clément Roques, Peter Makus, René Steinmann, Kapiolani Teagai, John Armitage, and Niels Hovius

There is a growing understanding that groundwater has an important volume in mountainous areas,  controlling hydrological budgets and fluxes towards lowland basins. However, the observation of this reservoir is challenging, with less boreholes in steep and remote catchments. In the last decade, attempts to monitor groundwater via seismic waves velocity monitoring (a technique called seismic interferometry) have emerged, opening interesting avenues for mountain hydrology. Indeed, the deployment of seismic stations at high elevation is logistically more feasible and offers a good proxy for subsurface water. Here, I present three seismic deployment campaigns, aimed at monitoring groundwater dynamics in different mountainous conditions. These studies are located in 1. A catchment in the Nepal Himalayas 2. On a steep ridge in Taiwan and 3. In Alpine conditions in Switzerland.  Suggestions for calibrating the method and going from seismic velocity changes to groundwater volumes are discussed with the hope to build more bridges between seismologists and mountain hydrogeologists.

How to cite: Illien, L., Andermann, C., Sens-Schönfelder, C., Cook, K., Turowski, J., Roques, C., Makus, P., Steinmann, R., Teagai, K., Armitage, J., and Hovius, N.: Mountain groundwater monitoring with seismic ambient noise: what to do next ?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5685, 2025.

EGU25-5766 | Orals | HS2.1.2

Landsystems of the tropical high Peruvian Andes: glaciers, lakes, wetlands and water resources in the Cordillera Vilcanota  

Bethan Davies, Tom Gribbin, Owen King, Tom Matthews, Jan Baiker, Rike Becker, Wouter Buytaert, Jonathan Carrivick, Fabian Drenkhan, Juan-Luis Garcia, Nilton Montoya, Baker Perry, and Jeremy Ely

The food and water security of 90 million people depends on the Andean Mountain water tower, which is at risk in several regions because climate change is altering water storage in high altitude wetlands (bofedales), lakes, snow and glacier ice. These features play a crucial role in delaying water release, particularly in many semiarid regions with pronounced seasonal drought, sustaining baseflows and water quality. Changing water availability impacts both high Andean pastoralist systems and other productive systems downstream, including bigger cities in the inter-Andean valleys. Here we outline the hydrological and geomorphological relationships between glaciers, lakes and wetlands, and the way in which catchment features such as moraines, talus slopes and sandar interact with catchment hydrology in the tropical Andes of Peru. We present a geomorphological map of catchment features in the Cordillera Vilcanota, Cusco region, Peru, and explore how these features can impact hydrogeological processes. We explore the ways in which well mapped and dated catchment features can give a damming or groundwater/surface water exchange mechanism for bofedal development. Such analysis enables an improved understanding of the timeframe for the formation of wetlands and for them to provide their key ecosystem services of water retention capacity, buffering drought, providing forage for alpaca and herding, and carbon storing and sequestration.

How to cite: Davies, B., Gribbin, T., King, O., Matthews, T., Baiker, J., Becker, R., Buytaert, W., Carrivick, J., Drenkhan, F., Garcia, J.-L., Montoya, N., Perry, B., and Ely, J.: Landsystems of the tropical high Peruvian Andes: glaciers, lakes, wetlands and water resources in the Cordillera Vilcanota , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5766, 2025.

EGU25-6352 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Accelerating Water Cycle in Mountain Catchments: The Role of Snow in Runoff Dynamics 

Mateja Fabečić, Johnmark Nyame Acheampong, and Michal Jeníček

Streamflow in central European mountain catchments is strongly influenced by snow. Rising air temperatures are causing a shift from snowfall to rainfall, a decrease in snow storage, and earlier snowmelt. Therefore, the question emerged of whether these changes could contribute to changes in catchment transit times and thus lead to acceleration of the water cycle. This study aims to quantify 1) whether the increasing number of partial snowmelt periods during winter resulting from increasing rainfall compared to snowfall affects the partitioning of the snowmelt runoff into soil and groundwater components, 2) how it affects selected hydrological signatures in late spring and early summer, and 3) examine the influence of catchment elevation on the above processes. To investigate changes in the runoff components, we used long-term simulations from 68 mountain catchments in Czechia covering the period from 1965 to 2019, using a conceptual, bucket-type catchment model. The model was evaluated against observed daily runoff and snow water equivalent (SWE). We analysed temporal trends in the fraction of fast (event) and slow (baseflow) runoff responses, calculated as monthly or seasonal fractions of the individual components to total runoff (Qfast/Qtot; Qslow/Qtot). The statistical significance of temporal trends was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test. The elasticity index was calculated to describe how sensitive the fractions are to changes in SWE and snowmelt volume. Additionally, we investigated how the catchment characteristics, particularly elevation and geographic region, influenced these relationships to provide a more comprehensive understanding of water cycle dynamics across different mountains in Czechia. The preliminary results indicate that snow-poor years are characterized by a higher fraction of fast-response runoff during the winter months. In contrast, years with high maximum SWE lead to higher groundwater recharge which also contributed to higher low flows during late spring and early summer. Ultimately, the influence of SWE on the selected hydrological signatures becomes more pronounced with elevation.

How to cite: Fabečić, M., Acheampong, J. N., and Jeníček, M.: Accelerating Water Cycle in Mountain Catchments: The Role of Snow in Runoff Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6352, 2025.

EGU25-6638 | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Projected changes in the seasonality and interannual variability of lowland and mountain runoff and potential consequences for global water use 

Sarah Hanus, Peter Burek, Mikhail Smilovic, Jan Seibert, Yoshihide Wada, and Daniel Viviroli

Mountains play a critical role in water provision and use in the lowlands, with the timing and magnitude of runoff being key determinants of water availability. Climate change is projected to alter runoff dynamics globally. This will affect the interplay between mountain and lowland runoff and, thus, lowland water availability. While many studies have focused on runoff changes in individual river basins, occasionally contrasting lowlands and mountains, we lack information about how the magnitude and timing of mountain and lowland runoff differ across river basins worldwide and how these characteristics may change in the future. Moreover, studies examining future changes in the relevance of mountain runoff for future lowland water use beyond decadal averages are rare.

Therefore, in this study we examined differences in runoff magnitude, seasonality and interannual variability between lowlands and mountains in all large river basins globally, both in the past and under future projections. A key focus was to determine whether future changes might lead to increasing similarity between lowland and mountain runoff characteristics. We then investigated future changes in the seasonality and interannual variability of lowland surface water abstractions (LSWA) and the share stemming from mountain runoff. This second part of the study builds upon previous work (Hanus et al., 2024a) by exploring future changes in the relevance of mountain runoff for meeting lowland water demand including interannual variability.

To improve the representation of mountain runoff, we used global hydrological simulations from the Community Water Model (CWatM, Burek et al., 2020) coupled with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; Maussion et al., 2019) (Hanus et al., 2024b). Future simulations were conducted until the end of the century using a low-emission (SSP1-2.6) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario.

Our results show that mountains have a lower interannual variability, a later seasonality timing and higher specific runoff magnitude compared to lowlands. In contrast, the strength of seasonality is higher or lower in the mountains depending on the region. The projected directions for the change of these runoff signatures are agreed upon in most river basins between mountains and lowlands. Only in Central Europe are all of the analysed runoff signatures projected to become more similar between mountains and lowlands.

Focusing on interannual variability, our analysis shows that the contribution of mountain runoff to lowland surface water abstractions varies substantially between years. For example, for the Po River basin, the long-term average mountain runoff contribution to LSWA in July is 58%, whereas it can reach 76% in one year. Notably, the sign in runoff anomaly agrees in most years among the lowlands and mountains in the river basins, with minimal future changes. Still, anomaly strength is mostly higher in the lowlands. The reliance of lowland water use on mountain runoff is generally the largest in years with a negative lowland runoff anomaly, even if the mountain runoff anomaly is also below average.

Overall, our study demonstrated that mountain runoff is an important water source in many world regions, especially in specific years with low lowland runoff.

How to cite: Hanus, S., Burek, P., Smilovic, M., Seibert, J., Wada, Y., and Viviroli, D.: Projected changes in the seasonality and interannual variability of lowland and mountain runoff and potential consequences for global water use, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6638, 2025.

EGU25-7617 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Modeling Stream Water Temperatures for A Montane Catchment Using Observations, Statistical Models and Machine Learning 

Claudia Corona, Daniel Philippus, Henry Johnson, and Terri S. Hogue

The water temperature of streams in montane catchments is a key harbinger of ecosystem health and water resource quality for nearby and downstream communities, a dependency that is ever increasing and sensitive to change, in the western United States and worldwide. In recent decades, representative snowfall-dominated, montane catchments such as the Sagehen Experimental Forest (hereafter, “Sagehen”), located in the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains of California, have been studied to better understand how disturbances ranging from climate-induced events, i.e., drought, wildfire, and extreme precipitation events; to human-caused events, i.e., forestry experimentation, affect stream flow and stream water temperature (SWT). Sagehen, like many catchments in the mountain West, experiences cold, wet winters and warm, dry summers, with both the quantity and timing of snow and rain being vitally important for sustaining spring and summer streamflow and buffering SWT for ecosystem resiliency. Alarmingly, climate projections for Sagehen indicate an earlier snowmelt season and more rain-on-snow events, both of which are likely to result in unknown consequences. Additionally, rising global temperatures may exacerbate the risk of hard-to-predict disturbances (i.e., wildfires and insect infestations) and resulting impacts on hydrologic systems. Stream hydrologic response, including SWT, to such events remains poorly understood due to limitations such as lack of field data and/or lack of years-long records.

To address this knowledge gap, we leverage a 12-year dataset of streamflow and SWT observations collected across Sagehen to first calibrate and then compare statistical and machine learning models for SWT. Currently, performance metrics using TempEst-NEXT, a CONUS-scale, statistical SWT forecasting model show a RMSE of 4.09°C, R2 of 0.88, NSE of 0.43 and percent bias (PBIAS) of 48% for mean daily SWT. Performance metrics for the machine-learning neural network model using daily SWT, air temperature and snow input show a strong validation period RMSE of 0.71°C, R2 of 0.98, NSE of 0.98, and PBIAS of 0.11%. Using this unique dataset, which encompasses both dry and wet periods, droughts and extreme precipitation events, as well as forest treatments, we consider the following objectives: 1) examine how climatic factors have influenced SWT response during the period of record and how response may change in the future using climate scenarios, and 2) identify what, if any, physical patterns can be discerned from observations, modeling results, and model comparisons. Preliminary analysis of daily SWT in Sagehen shows that summer 2020 had the highest daily mean SWT for the 12-year record, followed by summer 2021, and 2022. In terms of SWT variability, preliminary analysis has identified a possible relation between SWT variability and slope-face, where SWT is most buffered on the main stem, followed by the north-facing, then south-facing tributaries. Pending model analysis and cross-comparison is expected to illuminate differences in model prediction  of SWT for the Sagehen basin for both the near-term and the future. Broadly, this research is expected to provide new insights on the evolution of hydrology in a montane catchment as it responds to climate variability and disturbance events.

How to cite: Corona, C., Philippus, D., Johnson, H., and Hogue, T. S.: Modeling Stream Water Temperatures for A Montane Catchment Using Observations, Statistical Models and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7617, 2025.

EGU25-8857 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Integrating a Global Glacier Model into Local Hydrological Modelling: Impacts on Future Water Availability 

Justine Berg, Pascal Horton, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandra von der Esch, and Bettina Schaefli

The cryosphere in mountain areas serves as a critical water resource, supplying melt water to downstream communities in spring as well as summer months for irrigation and human consumption. Effects of climate warming on the cryosphere and therefore melt water availability are expected to be substantial for many mountain ranges worldwide. An accurate representation of glacier processes is thus crucial to predict future water availability in catchments that are currently at least partially glacier-covered. Hydrological models often focus on meltwater-streamflow transformation processes occurring in non-glacierized areas with sometimes an overly simplified representation of glacier dynamics and melt. This can lead to uncertainties in streamflow predictions, especially in highly glacierized catchments and for longer time horizons. Coupling a glacier model with a hydrological model can address some of these uncertainties by a more accurate representation of glacier-related processes including ice melt and changes in glacier extent, which are essential to quantify streamflow changes under a transient climate. This study couples the global glacier model GloGEM with the semi-distributed hydrological modelling framework Raven to enhance the representation of these glacier dynamics. The implemented one-way coupling (from the glacier model to the streamflow model) aims to reduce uncertainties and improve predictions of streamflow and water availability under transient climate conditions. The relevance of using a global-scale glacier model for local-scale hydrological modelling is evaluated in 15 glaciated catchments in Switzerland. Initial results indicate that the coupled model enhances streamflow predictions and provides a more accurate representation of glacier melt contributions to streamflow. These improvements influence model parameters, particularly snow-related ones, which previously compensated for deficiencies in the modelled glacier melt, thereby leading to changes in snowmelt contributions to streamflow. This study assesses how these shifts in glacier and snowmelt contributions under future climate scenarios impact water availability.

How to cite: Berg, J., Horton, P., Kauzlaric, M., von der Esch, A., and Schaefli, B.: Integrating a Global Glacier Model into Local Hydrological Modelling: Impacts on Future Water Availability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8857, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8857, 2025.

EGU25-10581 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Increased rainfall-runoff drives flood hazard intensification of Central Himalayan Rivers 

Ivo Pink, Sim Reaney, Isabella Bovolo, and Richard Hardy

The development of flood adaptation and mitigation strategies to climatic changes requires frameworks to predict potential future design floods (e.g. the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)) and their associated uncertainty. We present a modelling framework that predicts potential future flood hazards from probabilistic climate scenarios. The framework assesses the drivers of change and the predictive uncertainty and is implemented for the Central Himalayan Karnali River.

The modelling framework applies a continuous hydrological model within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) with climate projections of the latest generation of climate models (12 CMIP6 models). We then conduct a Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) to estimate the probabilities of extreme flows and use a bootstrapping approach to estimate the uncertainty related to the internal variability.

 We project an intensification of flood hazards with time and emissions. The 1% AEP flood magnitude is projected to increase by 23% (medium-emission scenario SSP245) and 26% (high-emission scenario SSP585) in the near-future (2020 – 2059), and by 40% (SSP245) and 79% (SSP585) in the far-future (2060 – 2099) compared to the baseline period (1975 – 2014).  Consequently, the flood magnitude of the baseline 1% AEP event is projected to occur once every 11 years (SSP245) and 3 years (SSP585) in the far-future. This intensification is to >90% driven by rainfall-runoff increases and is, thus, attributed to changes in the precipitation characteristics. The baseflow and glacier melt contributions remain similar while snowmelt contributions decrease due to an earlier onset of the melting season.

We analyse the standard deviation (SD) to assess the uncertainty contribution of the modelling components. The hydrological model is a main source of uncertainty, but its contribution is independent of time, emissions and event frequency (SD: 21 – 24%). The uncertainty related to the climate projections increases with time and emissions from 14 – 18% in the baseline period to 22 – 28% (SSP245) and 29 – 32% (SSP585) in the far-future. The uncertainty introduced by the FFA is generally independent of time and emissions and increases with the event frequency from 8-9% for the 10% AEP event to 11 – 16% for the 1% AEP event. However, we detect that the uncertainty increases with the increasing flow difference between the rarest and more frequent events and is, thus, sensitive towards the projected precipitation extremes. 

We conclude that flood hazards intensify with GHG emissions in the Central Himalayan River system because of changes in the monsoon precipitation characteristics. The projections of potential future hazards to guide flood adaptation and mitigation strategies need to consider the uncertainty in the climate projections, the internal variability, and the hydrological simulations.

How to cite: Pink, I., Reaney, S., Bovolo, I., and Hardy, R.: Increased rainfall-runoff drives flood hazard intensification of Central Himalayan Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10581, 2025.

EGU25-11799 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Ecohydrological monitoring of two Alpine ecosystems representing possible broader future conditions in the Alps 

Tanzeel Hamza, Davide Gisolo, Alessio Gentile, Davide Canone, and Stefano Ferraris

High-altitude non-glacial grasslands and peri-urban new-growth forests are still two poorly studied ecosystems that represent present and future conditions in the Alps. Hence, studying the functioning of these environments is crucial, especially if land surface models’ capability of representing the ecosystems’ processes is assessed.

The data are collected at two eddy covariance sites located in the Northwestern Alps, respectively on a high-altitude grassland (2550 m a.s.l.) and in a forest (650 m a.s.l. with a 25 m high mast). The data are characterised by time series spanning 365 days per year, since 2018 for the grassland site and since 2021 for the forest site.

The ecosystem and soil information (energy fluxes and actual evapotranspiration, ETa, soil moisture) obtained from measurements is combined with simulation results obtained with the land surface CLM model (The Community Land Model, NCAR, US). A rather good agreement is found between observations and simulations.

A particular focus on dry conditions in 2022 on the forest site is also presented. The results show that soil moisture, pressure head, and net radiation are more important than vapor pressure deficit, wind speed, and air temperature as ETa drivers. During the drought, despite the low soil moisture, both cases of water- and energy-limited conditions occurred. A weak effect of the drought on ETa is observed, likely due to the deep root system. The cosmic ray neutron sensor (CRNS) measurements revealed a good agreement with capacitive probes profile (CPS) ones.

 

This work was supported by the NODES project, funded under MUR – M4C2 1.5 of the PNRR with resources from the European Union - NextGenerationEU (Grant agreement no. ECS00000036), as well as the MUR PRIN project SUNSET (202295PFKP_003).

How to cite: Hamza, T., Gisolo, D., Gentile, A., Canone, D., and Ferraris, S.: Ecohydrological monitoring of two Alpine ecosystems representing possible broader future conditions in the Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11799, 2025.

EGU25-11997 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Gravimetry as a groundwater monitoring solution: combining hydrological and gravimetric measurements to understand a pre-alpine alluvial aquifer 

Fernando Gutiérrez-Soleibe, Nazanin Mohammadi, and Landon J. S. Halloran

Groundwater resources are increasingly affected by climate change, in which rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns lead to shifts in recharge rates, thereby impacting water availability. Traditional hydrological data such as stream and piezometric levels provide valuable point information, however the spatial extent to which these data are relevant is not generally straightforward to determine. The limits of point measurements are particularly true in alluvial aquifers with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, as well as in mountain groundwater systems that experience significant seasonal variations in water storage. Time-lapse gravimetry (TLG), a spatially integrative hydrogeophysical method, may help to fill data gaps and evaluate spatial and temporal variability in these systems.
This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of water storage changes using time-lapse gravity data (TLG) and traditional hydrological data in the unconfined alluvial aquifer system of the pre-alpine Röthenbach catchment (Bern canton, Switzerland). We compare monthly TLG surveys with complimentary data, including time-series of groundwater head, river discharge, groundwater levels and recharge, in order to: a) test the limits of TLG in resolving groundwater storage changes, b) characterize the spatial variability in the water storage dynamics of the catchment, and c) develop a new conceptual model for this hydro-system. Our approach reveals the relationship between local gravity changes and the hydrological processes within the study catchment and provides valuable insights into the potential of TLG for hydrological and hydrogeological investigations.

How to cite: Gutiérrez-Soleibe, F., Mohammadi, N., and Halloran, L. J. S.: Gravimetry as a groundwater monitoring solution: combining hydrological and gravimetric measurements to understand a pre-alpine alluvial aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11997, 2025.

Mountains are vital freshwater sources for nearly half of the global population but face increasing threats from climate change and human pressure. Understanding the impacts of these changes in mountain catchments is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies and conserving their unique ecosystems. Our study investigates the effect of climatic changes and large-scale teleconnection patterns (Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation) on streamflow dynamics in headwater mountain catchments under varying degrees of human pressure. The study is based on time series analysis of streamflow records, meteorological data, and teleconnection indices from 1971 to 2020, and employs trend analysis, wavelet analysis, and paired catchment observations.

Our findings reveal a significant increase in air temperature in the region (+0.4°C decade-1) over the past 5 decades. While total precipitation remained stable, annual snowfall totals declined by 69 mm decade-1. Air temperature and precipitation changes varied with altitude and season: temperature changes were more pronounced in summer at lower altitudes, while precipitation shifts were most evident in winter at higher altitudes.

Snow depths remained relatively unchanged, but snow cover duration decreased by up to 4 days per decade. These climatic shifts resulted in a notable increase in annual low flows (up to 11.5% per decade), as well as winter low, average, and high flows. The impact of teleconnection patterns on streamflow varied over time and was more pronounced at longer time scales (≥1 year).

Streamflow changes were more pronounced in semi-natural catchments compared to human-altered catchments. Climatic-driven streamflow trends were most evident in winter, while land use changes (windthrow) and human activities drove year-round trends. Precipitation and discharge exhibited stronger coherence across all time scales in human-altered catchments, suggesting greater susceptibility of these catchments to precipitation extremes. The amplification of the annual precipitation cycle and semi-annual snow cover cycle at higher altitudes, coupled with the intensification of the semi-annual streamflow cycle, underscores the impact of ongoing climatic changes. The observed streamflow variability reflects the intricate interplay of climate change, large-scale atmospheric oscillations, extreme events, and human activities.

How to cite: Rajwa-Kuligiewicz, A. and Bojarczuk, A.: Streamflow variability in the Tatra Mountains, Western Carpathians: Combined effects of climate change, teleconnection patterns, extreme events, and human pressure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12025, 2025.

EGU25-12099 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Linking Downstream Water Use with Upstream Water Production - Insight from a High-Resolution Water Tower Model of the Potomac River Watershed 

Eric Sjöstedt, Matthew Kearns, Richard Rushforth, and Nicolas Zegre

Water is the foundation of healthy communities, ecosystems, and economies. Clean, reliable water is critical for drinking, producing water-intensive commodities, thermoelectric power generation, and maintaining healthy ecosystems and economies. Rural areas disproportionately provision natural resources such as freshwater to downstream cities, which are primary locations of economic productivity, prosperity, and populations. Increasing and unprecedented pressure on water resources from climate change, population growth, water use, land cover, and pollution, creates a critical need to understand the dependency of downstream economies on upstream locations that provision freshwater supplies. Previous studies have substantiated upstream-downstream dependencies at continental- and country scales, which are too spatially coarse for meaningful basin-scale decision-making. This research presents a spatially explicit basin-scale water tower model (initially developed by Viviroli et al., 2007) that quantifies upstream-downstream dependence by spatially connecting downstream water users (e.g., public water supply) to upstream locations of runoff generation in addition to comparing the impact of different spatial resolution hydrologic datasets. We focus on the Potomac River watershed in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States of America, which provides ~75% of surface water supplies in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. Recent research suggests near-term scenarios with water scarcity throughout the watershed due to population growth, increased water demand, and increased aridity due to climate-driven increases in atmospheric demand. This basin-scale, gridded water tower model identifies spatially explicit locations and land cover within the watershed that disproportionately largely supply fresh water to the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, underscoring its reliance on rural hinterlands. Our findings provide insights for basin-scale integrated water resource management planning by highlighting the potential impacts of land use changes and climate change on these critical water generation areas. We highlight the importance of decision-ready science in water resource management, particularly in domains such as water allocation, infrastructure planning, and ecosystem restoration. By leveraging geospatial data science and comparing high-resolution hydrologic datasets, this research provides actionable insights to guide decision-makers in developing strategies that ensure the long-term sustainability of water resources.

How to cite: Sjöstedt, E., Kearns, M., Rushforth, R., and Zegre, N.: Linking Downstream Water Use with Upstream Water Production - Insight from a High-Resolution Water Tower Model of the Potomac River Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12099, 2025.

EGU25-12458 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Divergent spatial runoff trends in Western Patagonia projected by hybrid glacio-hydrological modelling 

Rodrigo Aguayo, Harry Zekollari, Sarah Hanus, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Pablo Mendoza, and Fabien Maussion

Western Patagonia's vast freshwater ecosystem, where glacial and non-glacial waters converge, is increasingly threatened by climate change, disrupting runoff patterns and endangering water resources. Here, we present estimates of past and future glacio-hydrological changes for 2,236 catchments in Western Patagonia, projecting impacts through the 21st century under contrasting climate change scenarios. Leveraging recent advances in the development of regional and global datasets, we applied a hybrid approach combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks with process-based glacier modelling (Open Global Glacier Model). We evaluated the approach’s ability to predict streamflow in ungauged basins (PUB) and regions (PUR) through 10-fold cross-validation, and compared the results with those from a pure LSTM model and two process-based hydrological models. Additionally, we assessed how the different model predictions extrapolate spatially and project over time. The results show that the hybrid modelling approach outperformed all conventional approaches in more than 70% of the catchments considering PUB and PUR evaluations. Using this approach, we estimated a regional discharge of nearly 20,000 m³ s⁻¹ (2000-2019), with an average glacial contribution of 20%. By the end of the century, we project marked shifts in river seasonality under climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario, the northern region (>46°S) is projected to experience the largest reductions in runoff, with dry season runoff decreasing by almost 50%. In contrast, glacierised basins in the southern regions are projected to show slight increases, with average relative changes of 20%. The results highlight the potential of hybrid modelling to provide new information for climate change adaptation in Western Patagonia.

How to cite: Aguayo, R., Zekollari, H., Hanus, S., Baez-Villanueva, O. M., Mendoza, P., and Maussion, F.: Divergent spatial runoff trends in Western Patagonia projected by hybrid glacio-hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12458, 2025.

EGU25-13395 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Investigating aquifer properties in the Himalayas through stream flow response to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake 

Zoé Biais, Christoff Andermann, Philippe Steer, Laurent Longuevergne, and Basanta Raj Adhikari

High-mountain water storage in the form of ice, snow, and groundwater is crucial for predicting water routing to rivers. While snow and ice volumes are diminishing considerably in mountains as a result of global warming, subsurface storage volumes and transfer mechanisms remain largely elusive.

Earthquakes can act as natural experiments by changing aquifer properties and causing a hydrological response in streams. These responses can provide indications of aquifer parameters that are impossible to acquire without intrusive measurements. A range of effects including changes in streamflow, spring discharge and water table were reported. These observations can be explained by mechanisms involving water release from new sources by changing hydrological conductivity, e.g. opening new cracks or un-clogging existing conduits. The way that hydrological systems respond to seismic event can provide valuable insights into the underlying aquifers properties.

On the 25th of April 2015, which represents the end of the dry season, when rivers levels are low, a 7.8 Mw earthquake occurred in Gorkha, in central Nepal, rupturing a 140 km segment propagating from west to south-east. We observed that rivers draining the rupture area responded by a marked increase in rivers discharge. We analyzed 26 river gauging stations covering the wider rupture area. Stations within the rupture area recorded an instantaneous rise in river water level, lasting for 1-2 days after the earthquake. Stations outside the rupture area also exhibited delayed but noticeable responses, surprisingly only in the east. The 16 stations showing a marked stream flow response are spread over an area of 90,000 km², from middle to eastern Nepal.

To identify the factors influencing the patterns of response, we compared disturbed hydrographs with precipitation data, watershed characteristics, and changes in boundary conditions.  For watersheds located at the western end of the rupture zone, the co-seismic response is transient while at the eastern end the response is sustained until the onset of monsoon. The time delay recorded at the outlets of large watersheds corresponds to the time required for water to travel from the seismic affected areas to the outlet.

To estimate the additional groundwater release induced by the earthquake, we applied a low-pass filter to the hydrographs. Then, we analyzed the recession curve parameters before and after the earthquake to investigate the modification of the aquifer permeability by the event.

During the dry season, rivers are predominantly groundwater fed. In the absence of recharge from precipitation, the volume of groundwater stored in aquifers decreases, leading to a decline in water table levels. Since the event occurred at the end of this period, the excess of water likely source from deep groundwater. Our estimates indicate that the event released around 1.3-1.5 km3 of  additional groundwater. Furthermore, the sustained rise in water levels following (and induced by) the earthquake, suggests the presence of an important deep groundwater reservoir in the Himalayan mountain range.

Earthquakes provide valuable opportunities to investigate the dynamics of fractured bedrock aquifers in high mountains such as the Himalayas.

How to cite: Biais, Z., Andermann, C., Steer, P., Longuevergne, L., and Adhikari, B. R.: Investigating aquifer properties in the Himalayas through stream flow response to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13395, 2025.

EGU25-13473 | Orals | HS2.1.2

Exploring the formation of convective clouds in the Tropical Eastern Andes 

Diego Urdiales Flores, Marika Koukoula, Andries Jan de Vries, Jose Araya, Francina Dominguez, Rolando Célleri, and Nadav Peleg

Mountains cover approximately one-quarter of the Earth's land surface, with a significant proportion of the global population residing in their vicinity. Orography plays a pivotal role in shaping weather processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. When combined with factors such as land-cover heterogeneity and mesoscale atmospheric processes, it generates substantial spatial variability in mountain weather, as exemplified by the Tropical Andes. This study focuses on the diurnal dynamics of convective cloud entities, particularly small-scale cells associated with moderate convective rainfall, over the eastern slopes of the Tropical Andes. The analysis is based on high-resolution observations from a scanning X-band rain radar and numerical simulations performed using the WRF model. The results reveal that the formation of convective clouds in the lowland regions of the study area is modulated by varying advection velocities. A nocturnal enhancement in the formation of convective cells was observed, with advection velocities around 10 m/s. In contrast, during the period between 12:00 and 16:00, these cells exhibited rapid advection, with velocities reaching approximately 20 m/s. We will present the thermodynamic mechanisms driving the cloud formation, as well as the link with mesoscale convective systems.

How to cite: Urdiales Flores, D., Koukoula, M., Jan de Vries, A., Araya, J., Dominguez, F., Célleri, R., and Peleg, N.: Exploring the formation of convective clouds in the Tropical Eastern Andes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13473, 2025.

EGU25-15431 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Advancing isotope-based understanding of water resources in glacierized catchments to adapt to a changing climate 

Sarah Elise Sapper, Melanie Vital, Luzmilla Dàvila Roller, Francisco Fernandoy, Marcelo Gorritty, Lee Jeonghoon, Janie Masse-Dufresne, Bakhriddin Nishonov, Aurel Persoiu, Zarina Saidaliyeva, Maria Shahgedanova, Pu Tao, Marjan Temovski, Polona Vreča, John Andrew Wade, and Yuliya Vystavna

The livelihoods of millions of people worldwide depend on meltwater from glacierized catchments, which are critical resources for drinking water, agriculture, and power production. However, climate warming profoundly affects the water storage and transfer functions of these catchments, posing significant challenges to water resource management in mountain regions. In alignment with the United Nations’ designation of 2025 as the International Year of Glacier Protection and the pursuit of Sustainable Development Goal 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), there is an urgent need to understand and address these changes and develop adaptive strategies.

The relative contributions of glacier melt, snow melt, precipitation, groundwater, and other sources to streamflow remain poorly understood in many glacierized regions. This knowledge gap complicates efforts to predict and manage water resources amid expected climatic changes. Isotope-based methodologies provide a powerful tool to quantify these contributions, offering valuable insights into the current and future status of water resources in glacierized catchments.

As part of the coordinated research project initiative titled “Understanding Hydrological Processes in Glacierized Catchments under Changing Climate using Isotope-Based Methodologies (F33031)” by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a key objective is to develop a comprehensive database of isotopic signatures for the various endmembers contributing to streamflow. These endmembers, which vary depending on the specific catchment, include for example glacier melt, snowmelt, precipitation, groundwater and outflow from rock-glaciers and ice-cored moraines.

This research aims to establish a global reference framework to support the development and application of isotope-based methodologies, enabling a standardized approach to understanding flow paths and their contributions to streamflow. By elucidating these dynamics, the framework will help assess how contributions evolve with seasonal and inter-annual climatic variations. These insights are essential for accurately evaluating changes in total discharge volumes and implementing sustainable water management strategies to address the impact of climate change on mountain hydrology.

How to cite: Sapper, S. E., Vital, M., Dàvila Roller, L., Fernandoy, F., Gorritty, M., Jeonghoon, L., Masse-Dufresne, J., Nishonov, B., Persoiu, A., Saidaliyeva, Z., Shahgedanova, M., Tao, P., Temovski, M., Vreča, P., Wade, J. A., and Vystavna, Y.: Advancing isotope-based understanding of water resources in glacierized catchments to adapt to a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15431, 2025.

EGU25-15781 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Climate change impact assessment in a mountainous rural basin in Greece 

Ioannis M. Kourtis, Chrysaida-Aliki Papadopoulou, Antonio Trabucco, Daniele Peano, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Nikolaos Mellios, Chrysi Laspidou, Maria P. Papadopoulou, and Vassilios A. Tsihrintzis

Climate change is projected to create substantial challenges for water resources, especially in regions like the Mediterranean, recognized as a climate change hotspot with multiple interconnected risks. This study aims to introduce a climate change impact assessment framework for the Platanovrisi mountainous river basin, Greece, which is part of the Nestos/Mesta river basin. The GR2M hydrological model was calibrated–validated using observed rainfall, temperature and streamflow data, and applied to assess climate change impacts, which were evaluated based on projections from three climate models (i.e., GFDL-ESM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results indicated that between 2015 and 2050, annual precipitation and discharge are projected to decrease by 13%–23% and 32%–47%, respectively, while the average temperature is expected to rise by approximately 13% (around 1°C) compared to the historical period of 1974–2014. In addition, notable changes were observed in annual and seasonal water flow regimes, with a net reduction in river flow during winter and spring, and a mild increase in autumn and summer. These changes could pose challenges for hydropower generation, irrigation water storage and agriculture, and maintenance of ecological flows. The study also highlighted significant sensitivity and variability in rainfall, evapotranspiration, and river flows depending on the selected climate model and scenario. The results can provide valuable guidance for practitioners and decision-makers to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for sustainable water resources management in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Kourtis, I. M., Papadopoulou, C.-A., Trabucco, A., Peano, D., Sangelantoni, L., Mellios, N., Laspidou, C., Papadopoulou, M. P., and Tsihrintzis, V. A.: Climate change impact assessment in a mountainous rural basin in Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15781, 2025.

EGU25-15863 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Modeling Alpine Droughts: Bias-Correction and Downscaling of a Climatic Single-Model Large Ensemble 

Maximilian Pentenrieder, Ralf Ludwig, and Mariapina Castelli

The Alps serve as Europe's water tower, making perialpine regions heavily dependent on their water balance and susceptible to climate and management induced changes in water availability. In recent decades, the Alps have experienced an increasing number of droughts, leading to severe impacts on hydropower production, drinking and irrigation water allocation, ecosystem health, and tourism. These trends necessitate a comprehensive understanding of future drought patterns in the region.

To evaluate and analyze alpine droughts, regional climate model data from a single-model large ensemble comprising 50 members from 1990 to 2099 is used. The ensemble approach enables both future projections and the quantification of natural climate system variability, thereby enhancing the robustness of the results. This is particularly crucial when analyzing extreme events such as droughts, as it increases confidence in the observed signals while reducing uncertainty in the projections.

Given the heterogeneous landscape and climatic conditions of the study area, our methodology needs high-resolution spatial data specifically optimized for the considered terrain. The approach combines advanced downscaling techniques with a terrain-specific bias-correction method to generate reliable estimates of precipitation patterns and other critical climate parameters.

The resulting dataset is designed to serve diverse research needs, from hydrological studies to engineering applications and tourism geography. These high-resolution climate projections provide a broad range of hydroclimatic services and will contribute to the development of drought early warning and prediction systems, the implementation of optimized cross-sectoral drought risk management strategies and the enhancement of regional adaptation capabilities to drought conditions.

This comprehensive approach bridges the gap between climate modeling and practical applications, providing stakeholders with robust scientific foundations for decision-making in drought management and adaptation planning.

The presented study is conducted in the frame of the A-DROP project, funded through the INTERREG Alpine Space Programme.

How to cite: Pentenrieder, M., Ludwig, R., and Castelli, M.: Modeling Alpine Droughts: Bias-Correction and Downscaling of a Climatic Single-Model Large Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15863, 2025.

EGU25-16243 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Loss in snow storage: attribution to elevation bands and meteorological drivers in the Alps 

Raul R. Wood and Manuela I. Brunner

In recent years, Alpine regions have experienced several winters with little snow. This lack of snow - also referred to as snow drought - can have serious hydrological consequences, as highlighted by the prolonged hydrological drought in northern Italy in 2022. This event illustrates the important link between a snow drought in the upper reaches and a hydrological drought in the lower reaches of the catchment. Snow storage is expected to decrease in response to rising temperatures, which may lead to a potential increase in the number and spatial extent of snow droughts . However, it is not yet clear whether a decline in snow storage and the occurrence of low-snow years are solely caused by rising temperatures or whether changes in other, dynamic mechanisms, such as weather patterns leading to persistent dry spells, also play an important role.


Here, we use two national daily gridded snow products for Switzerland and Austria to quantify (1) changes in catchment snow storage, i.e. snow water equivalent (SWE), since 1961and attributing these changes to SWE deficit contributions  from low to high elevation bands; (2) changes in seasonal accumulation and melt characteristics; and (3) the occurrence, dynamics, and meteorologic drivers of low-snow years, i.e. years with annual maximum SWE below the 30th percentile, across various elevation bands.


Our results show a median loss of total annual catchment snow storage of approx. 20 % across 251 catchments in Switzerland and Austria over the period 1962-2023 , with a marked regime shift at the end of the 1980s. All elevation ranges experience a loss in snow storage, but most of the snow loss (approx. 60%) can be attributed to the loss in middle elevation snow storage (1200-2100m). Further, we observe a clear increase in the fraction of area under low snow conditions in all elevation bands, especially since the late 1980s. Thereby, low snow years are connected to below normal winter precipitation, especially at higher elevations (>2100m). At lower and middle elevations, warm winter temperature anomalies are additionally important to explain the occurrence of low snow years. A better understanding of the observed trends and the dynamical drivers of low snow years will help us to better constrain future projections of snow storage and associated hydrological impacts.

How to cite: Wood, R. R. and Brunner, M. I.: Loss in snow storage: attribution to elevation bands and meteorological drivers in the Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16243, 2025.

EGU25-17501 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.2

Lithological control on groundwater chemistry in the Trans-Himalayan Indus River basin aquifers, India 

Poulomee Coomar, Suhail Lone, Gh Jeelani, Dewashish Upadhyay, Saibal Gupta, and Abhijit Mukherjee

The trans-boundary Indus River basin aquifers span 16 million hectors across six countries.  Although extensive research on groundwater quality and quantity has been conducted in its middle and lower reaches, the high-altitude aquifers have gone unnoticed until recently. The goal of the submitted work is to understand the groundwater – aquifer matrix reactions responsible for observed water chemistry, through geochemical mass – balancing and 87Sr/86Sr isotopic systematics. Located at average altitude of 3500 m these shallows of the Indus Basin are devoid of any significant anthropogenic interferences, and provide a unique opportunity to study the processes of water – rock interaction.

Mildly reducing to oxidizing Ca – HCO3, Ca – Mg – HCO3 waters were collected from a variety bedrock (from ultrabasic to acidic and from carbonate to siliciclastic) and over-burden aquifers (fluvial, fluvio – glacial, aeolian, lacustrine). Sodium normalised mixing diagrams suggest a dual pathway of carbonate and silicate weathering.  Thermodynamic calculations show waters are nearly saturated in calcite, oversaturated in Fe oxy(hydr)oxides, and in equilibrium with kaolinite. Groundwater Sr varies from 57 to 3416 μg/L and 87Sr/86Sr ratios from 0.7075 to 0.7275. Groundwater Sr/Ca and 87Sr/86Sr ratios are significantly higher than those of typical carbonates, suggesting a dominance of silicate weathering. Scattering in Sr–solute relationships, lack of a linear trend between 1/Sr and 87Sr/86Sr and correlations of 87Sr/86Sr with other solutes and indicators of silicate weathering (SiO2/TDS, Na + K/total cationic charge) points towards derivation of solutes from multiple silicate sources. Mass – balancing suggests, a variety of silicate minerals (serpentine, olivine, chlorite, pyroxene, and biotite, plagioclase and alkali feldspars) have weathered to kaolinite, vermiculite and illite. Groundwater 87Sr/86Sr ratios in granitoid, siliciclastic, and ophiolitic aquifers matches well with their aquifer matrix values establishing them as their solute sources. Strong mismatch between aqueous and solid phase 87Sr/86Sr signatures in basaltic aquifers suggests solutes in them is derived from more radiogenic Himalayan sources.

How to cite: Coomar, P., Lone, S., Jeelani, G., Upadhyay, D., Gupta, S., and Mukherjee, A.: Lithological control on groundwater chemistry in the Trans-Himalayan Indus River basin aquifers, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17501, 2025.

EGU25-17559 | Orals | HS2.1.2

Arrival of monsoon, rainfall isotopic determination of the pre-monsoon - monsoon transition, tracing moisture sources across the Himalayas 

Christoff Andermann, Dirk Sachse, Harald Sodemann, Basanta Raj Adhikari, Ananta Gajurel, Torsten Queißer, Markus Reich, Kapiolani Teagai, Camilla Brunello, and Niels Hovius

Mountains are important water sources, storing water, releasing it in a buffered fashion and distributing it to the low-lying forelands. At the same time climate change is most pronounced in mountain regions, putting pressure on the water resources there. Understanding these changes requires better monitoring to robustly predict the changes in the mountain water cycle. In particular crucial is the seasonal supply of water by precipitation and the links with the evaporative source region, which again might depend on local changes there. To trace these pathways, automated water sampling devices are essential. To do so, we have developed an automated rain water sampler, that is robust to work under harsh conditions, can take 165 samples every 5min, is remotely accessible and provides samples of high analytical quality without atmospheric exchange.

From May to August 2022, we deployed 6 samplers across one of the most pronounced orographic precipitation gradients, the Himalayas in Nepal. The samplers were installed along the Kaligandaki River corridor, from ~ 100 m to 3700 m asl., from the border with India in the south to the dry region north of the mountain range. The sampling period was chosen to cover the sharp transition of the two contrasting seasons, pre-monsoon and monsoon. All samplers operated simultaneously for the full time with little technical downtime and we collected six unique high-resolution rainfall stable water isotope timeseries with roughly 1000 new samples. All measurements plot on the first order along the global meteoric water line. Temporally, the results show for all 6 stations a market trend with positive isotopic signatures during pre-monsoon and a very quick transition to negative signatures with the onset of monsoon. The pre-monsoon isotopic signatures are all in the range +30 to +40‰ in δ2H and all 6 stations at all elevations follow the same variability. Monsoon samples are in the range between -50 to -150‰ in δ2H. Unlike during pre-monsoon we observe a market separation of the isotopic signatures according to the elevation of the station. The lower station in the Gangetic Plains depicts signatures of around -50‰ δ2H, while the highest station features the lowest signatures of -150‰ δ2H. We attribute this market changes to the source signature of the evaporative source region. The pre-monsoon shows clear continental recycling signature and is sourced during the hot and moist pre-monsoon season from the Gangetic Foreland, Vapor during this season is transported in erratic and well mixed storm events toward the mountains. While the monsoon moisture is sourced far offshore in the Indian Ocean. The change between the two systems is very clear depicted in the isotopic signature. We accompany these analyses by lagrangian back trajectory analysis to determine the sources regions.

These findings show how variable the seasonal isotope input signatures in the Himalayan hydrological system are which has important consequences for tracing endmember signatures as well as the interpretation of climatological archives such as tree-rings or ice-cores and predicting future changes in the Himalayan water cycle with respect to the evaporative source regions.

How to cite: Andermann, C., Sachse, D., Sodemann, H., Adhikari, B. R., Gajurel, A., Queißer, T., Reich, M., Teagai, K., Brunello, C., and Hovius, N.: Arrival of monsoon, rainfall isotopic determination of the pre-monsoon - monsoon transition, tracing moisture sources across the Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17559, 2025.

The unique topographical and climatic conditions of the Himalayan region along with fewer hydrometeorological stations, add complexity to the hydrological modeling of this region. This study addresses the constraints of calibrating a hydrological model in a data-scarce watershed by substituting reanalysis surface runoff data (RSRD) for discharge data. In this study, we calibrated a distributed hydrological model, WATFLOOD, using ERA-5 surface runoff data. We assess water balance components in nine land use classifications across different locations in the study area. We also evaluate six separate water balance components over time using simulated data from different land use classes. Our results indicate that the WATFLOOD model can successfully replicate the water balance in the Himalayan region (CC = 0.8 and NSE = 0.75). Since the observation data is not easily accessible, RSRD can be utilized to calibrate the hydrological model. We validated our results with observed data available at one station for a short period. Our results reveal the drawbacks of calibrating a hydrological model with RSRD. The annual fluctuation of water balance components above and below ground in each land cover class varies in response to wet and dry years. The less variation of Total Upper Zone Storage (TUZS) and Lower Zone Storage (LZS) in dry and wet years shows that these water balance components are independent of the rainfall in the region. The proposed hydrological model has the potential to help manage water resources in highland locations with limited data.

Keywords: WATFLOOD model, Reanalysis Surface Runoff, Alaknanda River basin, Western Himalayan region

How to cite: Mammali, K. and Kumar Jha, S.: Calibration of a physically based distributed hydrological model: a case study of the Alaknanda River basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18454, 2025.

EGU25-18556 | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Climate change impact and water strategies for Po River until 2100 

Leonardo Stucchi, Daniele Bocchiola, Sonia Morgese, and Elena Prando

 

We study impacts of prospective climate change within the Northern Po river valley, largely snow/ice fed, largely exploited for irrigation, and needing extensive water management. Using a weather driven, semi distributed hydrological model Poli-Hydro, we simulate water budget in the area, including dynamics of the cryosphere, and thereby provide river flows, including withdrawals for irrigation, and return flow thereby. In regulated catchments proper operation rules are developed to account for modified flows downstream. We then explore management, and failure under demand, and set up management strategies, focusing upon design of a (micro?) reservoirs’ system, and operation. Then, forcing the model with IPCC-AR6 scenarios of climate, we project hydrological scenarios, and we thereby stress test the management strategy to verify critical response under climate change. We then propose adaptation strategies via re-framing of reservoirs, and management strategy thereby.

 

How to cite: Stucchi, L., Bocchiola, D., Morgese, S., and Prando, E.: Climate change impact and water strategies for Po River until 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18556, 2025.

EGU25-19201 | Orals | HS2.1.2

An innovative modelling approach for the quantification of mountain water resources  

Nathan Rickards, Helen Baron, and Amber Reynolds

Mountain meltwater sustains a sixth of the global population. However, water security in mountainous regions, along with the livelihoods of millions of people, is now under threat due to a warming climate causing a reduction of snow input and increased ice ablation in these environments. 

Mountain water resources are often mapped via the modelling of snowfall, snowpack, glacier mass balance and runoff in the mountain cryosphere. Model skill is, however, fundamentally limited by the quality and availability of key observational data which are too sparse, inaccurate and infrequent to constrain models adequately. As a result, mountain water resources are systematically underestimated by 50-100% in all of the world’s major mountain ranges. 

In order to address these challenges, we aim to fill gaps in observations in precipitation, glacial thickness and meltwater runoff to test and improve skill in water resources modelling in the Alps, Austria and the Himalayas, India. Using new observations, the innovative modelling approach couples a glacier model, a snowmelt model and a hydrological model for an improved representation of mountain water resources both now and in the future. The use of isotopic tracers will be used to further help parameterise the model and identify biases in the modelled water resources, helping to provide a more robust approach to the prediction of water resources up to the end of the 21st century under climate change scenarios. 

How to cite: Rickards, N., Baron, H., and Reynolds, A.: An innovative modelling approach for the quantification of mountain water resources , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19201, 2025.

There is a high level of confidence and scientific consensus that climate change is the primary driver of the melting and thawing of the cryosphere and that the cryosphere changes are happening at unprecedented rates. While the bulk of literature in this space is about physical changes in the cryosphere, increasingly, a body of literature has evolved that also recognizes the contribution of the cryosphere to human societies, particularly that of high mountain communities. On the lines of the ecosystem services framework, the cryosphere services framework has been used to classify the different goods and services that the cryosphere provides to human societies. These services include supply services (irrigation, water supply, etc.), socio-cultural services (sports, tourism, spiritual, etc.), regulation (regulating climate and water systems), and habitat services. While the cryosphere provides a whole range of goods and services for mountain communities, as mentioned above, not all of these are well documented. Significantly, how these services are being impacted due to the melting and thawing of the cryosphere is poorly understood. Even within the services, some, like material services (e.g., supply of water for irrigation and agriculture), and disservices such as disasters, are better documented than non-material services like the spirituality of landscapes. A part of the reason lesser attention is given to human aspects of the cryosphere change is the lack of inter-disciplinary perspectives in cryosphere studies, as well as the use of critical epistemologies from social sciences which can be used to examine how politics, power, and intersectionality influence societal responses to changes in the cryosphere. I will use this session to argue for enhanced interdisciplinary collaborations to understand human impacts and adaptive responses to cryosphere change.

How to cite: Mukherji, A.: Interdisciplinary perspectives are needed to understand the human impacts of cryosphere change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19613, 2025.

EGU25-20264 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.2

Assessment of the Water Balance of the Glacierized Issyk-Kul Basin in Kyrgyzstan under Climate Change 

Phillip Schuster, Azamat Osmonov, Tobias Sauter, Alexandra von der Esch, and Alexander Georgi

The impacts of climate change and glacier retreat are changing the hydrology of high mountain river systems, with critical implications for water management. In regions such as Central Asia, where resources and data availability are limited, accessible modeling tools are essential to support informed decision-making.
We apply MATILDA, an open-source glacio-hydrological modeling toolkit, to assess the water balance of the endorheic Issyk-Kul basin in Kyrgyzstan under changing climate conditions from 1982 to 2100. Using a semi-distributed approach, the study simulates hydrological dynamics for the tributaries of Issyk-Kul on a catchment basis. The calibration includes snow water equivalent reanalysis data, glacier mass balance observations and 31 historical discharge records, mainly from the Soviet era.
To estimate historical and future glacier evolution of the more than 800 glaciers in the basin, MATILDA is coupled with the advanced Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM). This approach allows to improve the representation of glacier changes in the simulations compared to simplified glacier routines and to evaluate their suitability for hydrological modeling in high mountain catchments. The presented results of the first phase of the study focus on climate change impacts on the general water balance, runoff contributions from the cryosphere, and the resulting lake level.
By integrating public data and open source routines, the study demonstrates the potential of MATILDA to support water management in glacierized basins facing climate change.

How to cite: Schuster, P., Osmonov, A., Sauter, T., von der Esch, A., and Georgi, A.: Assessment of the Water Balance of the Glacierized Issyk-Kul Basin in Kyrgyzstan under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20264, 2025.

EGU25-1603 | Orals | HS2.1.3

The Impact of Topography on Snow cover in China 

Tao Che, Liyun Dai, and Jiabei Zhu

Alpine snow plays a vital role in regional hydrological cycles and climate systems. Topographic factors exert a significant controlling effect on snow cover distribution in mountainous areas. Understanding the complex relationship between snowpack distribution and topography will be helpful for more effectively estimate high-spatial resolution snow depth distribution. In this study, the snow cover variation with topographic factors (elevation, aspect, and slope) at different periods are analyzed based on remote sensing snow coverage fraction data from August 1, 2000, to July 31, 2020. A new method based on the snow cover area increase rate, is utilized to divide a snow season into three periods (accumulation, stable and melt periods). The variations in snow cover fraction (SCF) and snow cover days (SCD) with topographic factors, as well as their inter-annual changes, in the three different periods are analyzed in the three typical snow regions of China (Xinjiang, Tibetan plateau, Northeast China). The results indicate that the the influence of topography on snow cover distribution display different characteristics in the three typical snow regions and in the three snow periods.

How to cite: Che, T., Dai, L., and Zhu, J.: The Impact of Topography on Snow cover in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1603, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1603, 2025.

The mountainous aquifer system plays an important role in the entire hydrological cycle, facilitating the redistribution of seasonal water resources and providing water supply to downstream watersheds. Due to severely environments and complex geological conditions, it is still a challenge to establish a conceptual model to comprehensively describe the system. Accordingly, this study aims to focus on constructing an alpine hydrogeological model and evaluating the water budget in mountain areas. The selected study site is located at the upstream tributaries of the Beinan River in Taituung County, Taiwan. Through establishment of hydrological monitoring facilities of surface and subsurface and conduction a series of field experiments, such as electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), fiber-optic distributed temperature sensor (FO-DTS) measurements, hillslope infiltration tests, and cross-borehole tracer tests, the aquifer properties, flow paths, and recharge mechanisms can be evaluated. The preliminary results indicate that the shallow aquifer contributed a significantly amount of water to the stream, piratically during the dry seasons. Infiltrated water was primarily passes through the regolith, while flow within the bedrock is predominantly controlled by fractures. Groundwater was mainly stored in the regolith but the water within the fractured rocks may serve as the buffer for the downstream water supply. The conceptual model and water flow paths for high mountain hydrogeology developed in this study can provide a theoretical basis for understanding the hydrological characteristics, hydrological processes, and storage of groundwater resources in mountainous areas. This preliminary model can serve as a reference for subsequent analyses of the impact and feedback of climate change and land use changes on the hydrogeological environment of high mountain areas.

How to cite: Chiu, Y.-C. and Lee, Y.-H.: Development of an Alpine Hydrogeology Model and Water Budget Evaluation– a Case Study of the Upper Beinan River, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2411, 2025.

EGU25-2954 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Assessing snow mixed pixels dynamics to better understand snow spatiotemporal variability in Mediterranean mountain catchments 

Rafael Pimentel, Javier Aparicio, Ana Andreu, and María J. Polo

The headwaters catchments of the Sierra Nevada mountain range in Southern Spain are a clear example of Mediterranean mountain catchments where climate variability enhances the spatiotemporal complexity of snow dynamics. The changeable patterns of snowfall combined with the usually mild and sunny winters result in shallow snowpacks that favor various accumulation and melting cycles and, consequently, the appearance of a characteristic snow patchy distribution. Remote sensing techniques has proven to be the most effective solution to monitor this characteristic snow distribution. Among the different satellite constellations, Landsat still provides the most extended time series with an adequate spatial resolution for capturing the long-term snow spatial variability over these areas. Applying a spectral mixture analysis to the long-term Landsat dataset over the area has allowed us to not only improve the spatial representation of snow that binary classification gave but also to define and idetenfigy the presence of pixels that are not fully covered by snow: mixed pixels. 

This work proposes using these mixed pixels as an indicator of snow cover occurrence and persistence and linking its frequency and evolution with snow dynamics, from snowfall to snow ablation patterns. Twenty years of Landsat imagery has been analyzed over an area composed of the five main headwaters in the Sierra Nevada mountain range. A spectral mixture analysis, considering the three main land cover over the region: snow, shallow vegetation, and rocks, was performed to define the land cover partitioning in each pixel in the area. The distributed snow-mixed pixels' spatiotemporal persistence and evolution over the region were statistically analyzed. 

The analysis of the occurrence of these pixels shows that their presence can reach up to 40% of the mountain range during some specific years, such as wet and cold years. The clustering of mixed pixels has also allowed us to identify common areas where patchy conditions prevail. A clear differential pattern has been observed between catchments in the southern face, which is highly influenced by the presence of the sea, and in the southern face, which has a more continental climate. Finally, analyzing the temporal evolution of these pixels has allowed for the spatial assessment of areas where snowfalls can be significant and/or frequent. Still, persistence is not enhanced by the local conditions. In general, this work highlights that accounting for subgrid variability is key in this area for understanding snow spatiotemporal patterns, determining the more vulnerable regions facing potential changes in the snow regime due to global warming and climate variability, and further assessing water resources planning through the improvement of hydrological models predictions.

Acknowledgment: This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research project PID2021-12323SNB-I00, HYPOMED—“Incorporating hydrological uncertainty and risk analysis to the operation of hydropower facilities in Mediterranean mountain watersheds.”

How to cite: Pimentel, R., Aparicio, J., Andreu, A., and Polo, M. J.: Assessing snow mixed pixels dynamics to better understand snow spatiotemporal variability in Mediterranean mountain catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2954, 2025.

EGU25-3206 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Complementarity between snow remote sensing, gauges, radar observations and Numerical Weather Prediction models to better constrain solid precipitation accumulation in spatially distributed snow cover modelling 

Matthieu Lafaysse, Matthieu Vernay, Clotilde Augros, Ange Haddjeri, Nicola Imperatore, César Deschamp-Berger, Simon Gascoin, and Marie Dumont

Accurate spatially distributed simulations of snow cover in mountainous regions is highly dependent on the possibility to well constrain the accumulation of solid precipitation. A number of observations and model data can provide direct or indirect assessment of their amount with varying spatial resolutions, spatial coverage and uncertainties. However, the complementarity between the different sources of informations is poorly documented and methodologies to appropriately combine all data are missing.

In this work, we present a new modelling framework taking benefit from (1) radar observations of precipitation, (2), local precipitation gauges, (3) precipitation climatology of a Numerical Weather Prediction model and (4) satellite remote sensing of snow depth. We show over a 900 km² simulation domain in Central French Alps that all data sources help to better constrain precipitation and to obtain more realistic snow depth spatial patterns. Radar observations provide the best temporal chronology of precipitation but the NWP model help to capture better altitudinal and horizontal climatological gradients and to fix spatial artefacts in radar measurements due to ground clutter. The assimilation of satellite snow depth maps is found as highly beneficial to capture spatial patterns of accumulated solid precipitation not well captured by radars and NWP. The added value of snow depth maps is maintained several months after the assimilation date, but they can not solve the errors specific to individual precipitation events. As a result, the most realistic spatial patterns of simulated snow depths are obtained when all sources of data are combined, with appropriate ensemble algorithms and uncertainty quantification.

Finally, we outline short term perspectives to integrate real-time snow observations from optical satellites in the previously described framework. This is an important step in the development of the EDELWEISS high-resolution (250 m) snow modelling system, which is expected to cover all French mountains by 2026.

How to cite: Lafaysse, M., Vernay, M., Augros, C., Haddjeri, A., Imperatore, N., Deschamp-Berger, C., Gascoin, S., and Dumont, M.: Complementarity between snow remote sensing, gauges, radar observations and Numerical Weather Prediction models to better constrain solid precipitation accumulation in spatially distributed snow cover modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3206, 2025.

EGU25-4147 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.3

Modelling shallow groundwater in high elevation alpine catchments: opportunities and challenges 

Xinyang Fan, Florentin Hofmeister, Michael Tarantik, Natalie Ceperley, Bettina Schaefli, and Gabriele Chiogna

Understanding the interactions between cryosphere and groundwater is pivotal but challenging. This is primarily due to high spatial heterogeneity of subsurface properties and rare spatial in-situ measurements in such environments. Here we discuss the opportunities and challenges of modelling shallow groundwater in a high elevation glaciated alpine catchment: the Martell Valley in the central European Alps (northern Italy). We have performed extensive field measurements of hydroclimatic variables and sampling campaigns for stable water isotope analysis (δ2H, δ18O) since 2022, including river discharge, groundwater level, spring discharge, rainfall, snow, and glacier outlets. To infer additional insights on the system dynamics, we adopted the physics-based hydrological model WaSiM with an integrated groundwater module for hydrological process simulations. We find that (i) shallow groundwater increases nearly as quickly as streamflow to snowmelt and heavy rainfall, as shown by their hydrographs and annual isotope signatures. Because this quick groundwater response is rarely anticipated by the model, this highlights the need for improved subsurface parameterization in hydrological models. (ii) Surprisingly, subsurface lateral flow plays a minor role in river discharge generation at the study site, providing new insights into the hydrological processes in this environment. (iii) Lastly our results underline the challenges of integrating point-scale groundwater observations into a distributed hydrological model, with important implications for future piezometer installation in the field. Through our findings with this coupled modelling-field data study, we synthesize current challenges in modelling high alpine hydro(geo)logical processes.

How to cite: Fan, X., Hofmeister, F., Tarantik, M., Ceperley, N., Schaefli, B., and Chiogna, G.: Modelling shallow groundwater in high elevation alpine catchments: opportunities and challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4147, 2025.

Given the sensitivity of snow to climate change and its critical role in the hydrological cycle of alpine regions, it is essential to accurately project future snow processes in mountainous areas. This study, taking the Manas River Basin (MRB) in Xinjiang China as the test bed, aims to quantify the uncertainties in hydrometeorological variables from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) simulations and further reduce these biases using a Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Network (CycleGAN). The bias-corrected CMIP6 data are then used to drive the SWAT model calibrated with both runoff and snow water equivalent (SWE) through a dual-objective approach for future projections. The results indicate that: (a) model uncertainty is the primary source of uncertainty in the original CMIP6 outputs. CycleGAN demonstrates substantial effectiveness in reducing model uncertainties; (b) most subbasins of the MRB will experience absolute SWE reduction in the future and the changes of SWE vary significantly across elevation bands; (c) The runoff in MRB has an increasing trend in future. As the ratio of rain to snow increases and snowmelt occurs earlier, low flows during the dry period will increase significantly, which will result in higher risk of spring floods. The findings will provide important guidance for projecting future snow dynamics and water resources management in the snow dominated watersheds.

How to cite: Liu, Z., Su, T., Zhu, F., and Duan, Q.: Integrating uncertainty decomposition and CycleGAN bias correction in enhancing future hydrologic projections in a snow-dominated alpine watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6142, 2025.

EGU25-6577 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.3

Modeling spatial and temporal streamflow dynamics in a high-mountain catchment using the SWAT-GL model 

Oriana Llanos-Paez, Nicola Deluigi, Jingyi Hou, and Tom Battin

In glacierized high mountain catchments, streamflow generation is strongly influenced by snow and glacier melt, processes especially sensitive to rising temperatures and ongoing climate change. These vulnerabilities make mountain headwater catchments a research priority; However, limited observational data and complex glacier-snow interactions often challenge conventional hydrological modeling in high-mountainous areas. Although several models have been developed to simulate streamflow dynamics in glacierized settings, many either lack comprehensive glacier representations or oversimplify them, failing to incorporate critical processes such as glacier evolution over time (e.g., glacier retreat).

To address these limitations, we employed the recently developed SWAT-GL model, which integrates a mass balance module and a glacier evolution parameterization to more accurately track changes in glacier volume and extent. Using a degree-day approach and ∆h-parameterization for glacier adjustment, SWAT-GL provides a robust framework for simulating spatiotemporal streamflow dynamics in glacierized catchments.

We applied SWAT-GL to the Valsorey catchment in the canton of Valais, Western Swiss Alps, calibrating the model with in-situ meteorological and streamflow data collected over the past decade. Our analyses revealed pronounced interannual variability in flow intermittency between climatically contrasting years, underscoring the distinct influences of glacier-fed and non-glacier-fed sub-catchments on overall runoff patterns. In particular, we identified notable differences in no-flow occurrences and seasonal streamflow recessions. Glacier-fed streams exhibited prolonged baseflow during warmer periods, while non-glacier-fed streams experienced an earlier onset and more frequent episodes of low or no-flow conditions.

Ongoing work applies future climate change scenarios to explore how continued glacier retreat will reshape these flow regimes and flow intermittency patterns. These findings will provide valuable insights into the resilience and adaptability of alpine hydrological systems.

How to cite: Llanos-Paez, O., Deluigi, N., Hou, J., and Battin, T.: Modeling spatial and temporal streamflow dynamics in a high-mountain catchment using the SWAT-GL model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6577, 2025.

EGU25-6832 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Gap filling satellite snow cover for mountain catchments 

Richard Essery, Johanna Nemec, Leam Howe, Gabriele Schwaizer, and Thomas Nagler

Optical remote sensing offers the best combination of resolution, coverage and revisit times for monitoring mountain snow cover, but it is limited by cloud cover and topographic shading, and does not directly provide measures of snow mass essential for hydrological applications. Assimilation of snow cover products in snow models allows gap filling. In addition, the use of physically-based models allows rejection of misclassified changes in snow cover that are not energetically possible and hindcasting of snow mass consistent with energy required for observed snow cover depletion. This presentation will demonstrate assimilation of new European Space Agency snow_cci and AlpSnow snow cover products, which represent contributions to the International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology, using ensembles of perturbed simulations. Trade-offs between resolution, ensemble size, model complexity, accuracy and computational expense will be considered for well-defined seasonal snow cover in the Alps and a more challenging case study of ephemeral snow cover and frequent cloud cover in the Cairngorm Mountains of Scotland.

How to cite: Essery, R., Nemec, J., Howe, L., Schwaizer, G., and Nagler, T.: Gap filling satellite snow cover for mountain catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6832, 2025.

EGU25-7009 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

Sub-daily downscaling of discharge in glacierized Alpine catchments 

Anne-Laure Argentin, Mattia Gianini, Bettina Schaefli, Pascal Horton, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin, Felix Pitscheider, Leona Repnik, Simone Bizzi, Stuart N. Lane, and Francesco Comiti

Alpine glaciated catchments exhibit complex hydrological streamflow dynamics influenced by temperature effects on snow and ice melt as well as precipitation, resulting in seasonally varying diel streamflow cycles. These cycles shift and become more intense during the summer melt season due to reduced buffering by the declining snow cover and the associated progressive development of more efficient subglacial drainage systems. This variation is of importance, especially for sediment transport, which is commonly a non-linear function of instantaneous discharge above a critical threshold. However, these diel streamflow cycles remain challenging to simulate due to a lack of high-quality meteorological data for remote areas and a general lack of observed streamflow data in highly glaciated catchments for model calibration. Consequently, many classically used hydro-glaciological models, such as those that use a degree-day approach for melt simulation, cannot capture sub-daily streamflow dynamics well, unless they are combined with temporal downscaling to sub-daily timescales. This work aims to develop an innovative downscaling approach that captures the specific features of streamflow patterns in Alpine glacierized catchments. 

The work benefits from an exceptionally high-resolution dataset that comprises 15-minute discharge records for 45 years from 7 small, highly-glacierized catchments in the South-Western Swiss Alps (relative glacial cover ranging from 5 to 70%). It adopts a maximum entropy (POME) approach more commonly used to downscale non-glacial discharge records available at the monthly scale. We couple this approach with a semi-distributed hydrological model that predicts mean daily discharge using modeled hydrological characteristics (e.g., snow depth, ice melt rates) to drive the downscaling. 

Results show that a simple sigmoid equation can be used to fit the daily flow duration curves of glacierized catchments. Furthermore, the progressive evolution of the sigmoid parameters over the last 45 years shows the influence of rapid climate warming on the dynamics of sub-daily flows. The downscaling method based on daily simulated discharge and informed by simulated hydrological and glacial characteristics offers a promising and transferable solution for reconstructing sub-daily discharge in data-scarce regions, as well as for improving hydrological modeling at high temporal resolutions. 

How to cite: Argentin, A.-L., Gianini, M., Schaefli, B., Horton, P., Chavez-Demoulin, V., Pitscheider, F., Repnik, L., Bizzi, S., Lane, S. N., and Comiti, F.: Sub-daily downscaling of discharge in glacierized Alpine catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7009, 2025.

EGU25-8373 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

Assimilation of snow persistency information in a hydrological framework 

Michele Bozzoli, Giacomo Bertoldi, Valentina Premier, Carlo Marin, Cristian Tonelli, Giuseppe Formetta, and Mathias Bavay

Alpine regions are highly sensitive to the impacts of climate change, with snowmelt dynamics playing a crucial role in their hydrological processes. A representative variable of the snowmelt is the snow water equivalent (SWE). However, SWE measurements are rare and limited to point scales, making it difficult to obtain accurate spatialized estimates. For this reason, remote sensing products offer a unique opportunity to provide spatialized observations. Recently, using optical remote sensing data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel-2, SAR data from Sentinel-1 and in situ observations, Premier et al. (2021) developed a multi-source data method to reconstruct daily snow cover area (SCA) maps at high spatial resolution (20 m). In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of combining this approach with a semi-distributed hydrological model (GEOframe) (Formetta et al., 2014) for reconstruct SWE at high spatial resolution (20 m) in the alpine catchment of Dischma, Kanton Graubünden, Switzerland (~40 km²). Modelled results are compared against both observed discharge and high-resolution SWE maps reconstructed using snow depth data retrieved by airplane photogrammetry of Bührle et al. (2022) and then converted into SWE maps using the approach of Jonas et al. (2009).


The GEOframe model can reproduce with high accuracy the observed discharge (KGE=0.904, NSE=0.823). However, being a semi-distributed model, modelled SWE spatial patterns are too coarse and less accurate. We find that the most effective SWE downscaling approach is based on the combination of topographic parameters and the snow persistency estimated by the novel approach of Premier et al. (2021). Comparing SWE estimates based on the novel proposed approach against the observations, we find a mean bias error of + 27.27 mm and a correlation of 0.624. Results suggest that our new method can reproduce SWE spatial patterns quite well, but at the same time the catchment-averaged SWE is bound to the water mass balance estimated by the hydrological model.


The presented approach could be seen by a two-fold perspective. Either a downscaling procedure to improve the capability of a semi-distributed hydrological model to estimate high-resolution SWE pattern in mountain regions, or a method to estimate SWE from multi-source satellite observations using the constraint on catchment-scale water budget coming from a hydrological model.

How to cite: Bozzoli, M., Bertoldi, G., Premier, V., Marin, C., Tonelli, C., Formetta, G., and Bavay, M.: Assimilation of snow persistency information in a hydrological framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8373, 2025.

EGU25-8959 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.3

Filling critical data gaps in High-Altitude Environments of the Himalayan Region 

Dhiraj Pradhananga, Jamie Smith, Michael Crowe, Luna Bharati, Kumar Aryal, Dinkar Kayastha, and Susa Manandhar

This paper addresses the critical need for high-altitude weather, climate, and environment monitoring in the Himalayas, where the impacts of climate change, such as water and food insecurity, biodiversity loss, and increased extreme events, are increasingly felt. Despite the region’s vulnerability, existing climate monitoring infrastructure remains inadequate, with past efforts to install Automated Weather Stations (AWS) often failing due to sustainability challenges related to maintenance and upkeep. The proposed solution leverages the strategic location of monasteries in remote, high-altitude regions, which serve as centers of teacher-student traditions, many of which are occupied year-round, and can provide secure sites for AWS installation. By training monks, nuns, and lamas to maintain these stations, this approach aims to fill critical data gaps and strengthen adaptation strategies for local communities with the monastic practice of spreading wisdom by fostering community awareness about climate change. Furthermore, this approach addresses potential logistical and bureaucratic barriers, such as permissions within national parks, and using private monastery properties with established accessibility. The project seeks support for equipment installation, volunteer training, and collaborative research to create a robust, sustainable monitoring network while contributing to the global understanding of high-altitude climate dynamics.

How to cite: Pradhananga, D., Smith, J., Crowe, M., Bharati, L., Aryal, K., Kayastha, D., and Manandhar, S.: Filling critical data gaps in High-Altitude Environments of the Himalayan Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8959, 2025.

EGU25-9399 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.3

Exploring the advantages of automated stations to retrieve continuous weather and snow-related data in high-elevation sites (Monte Rosa massif - Western Italian Alps) 

Mario Gallarate, Nicola Colombo, Cristina Viani, Enrico Gazzola, Patrick Henkel, Markus Lamm, Michele Maiorano, Michele Freppaz, Marco Giardino, and Fiorella Acquaotta

Anthropogenic climate change is strongly impacting mountain regions. The warming rate observed for the Alpine Region is well above the global average. Moreover, crucial water reservoirs such as glacier ice and seasonal snowpack are extremely susceptible to changes due to their inherent dependence both on the persistence of below 0 °C temperatures and the amount of solid precipitation. In recent years, the European Alps have experienced multiple seasons of intense deficit of snow precipitation compared to historical records. Given that the hydrological assets of the Western Italian Alps have a crucial role in the economic activities of Northern Italy, it is necessary to enhance the monitoring and the studies performed on the region. One of the most pressing criticalities that arise dealing with the study of the Alps is the growing need of direct measurements of meteorological and snow-related variables at high-elevation sites. To address this gap, a network of automated stations (ASs) has been established on the Monte Rosa massif in Western Alps, on the border between the Italian regions of Piedmont and Aosta Valley. The network’s responsibility falls under the Laboratory of Alpine Climatology, LabClima, of the University of Turin. Firstly, we present the data collected by the AS installed in the LTER site - Mosso Institute (45°52’30’’ N; 7°52’18’’ E; 2900 m a.s.l.), which is also equipped with sensors for Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurement based respectively on Cosmic Rays Sensors (CRS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technologies. The daily SWE datasets are compared with field data collected during measurement campaigns to investigate their potential to increase the temporal density and availability of data for remote and harsh mountain environments. We also present the data acquired by another AS (45°53'46.53"N; 7°50'56.96"E; 3500 m a.s.l.) established in September 2024 near the Garstelet Glacier. The sensors installed retrieve continuous data regarding the main meteorological variables (e.g., air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, solar radiation, precipitation, and snow height) as well as the temperature of the snowpack layers (measured at 50 cm intervals from the ground level up to 2 m height) and the type of precipitation thanks to the presence of a disdrometer. The variety of data collected by this AS is unprecedented at such elevation in the Italian Alps and could help to address the present gaps of information for end users and future scientific research.

This abstract is part of the project NODES which has received funding from the MUR – M4C2 1.5 of PNRR funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU (Grant agreement no. ECS00000036). The authors also acknowledge the support of NBFC to University of Turin, Department of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences, funded under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Mission 4 Component 2 Investment 1.4 - Call for tender No. 3138 of 16 December 2021, rectified by Decree n.3175 of 18 December 2021 of Italian Ministry of University and Research funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Gallarate, M., Colombo, N., Viani, C., Gazzola, E., Henkel, P., Lamm, M., Maiorano, M., Freppaz, M., Giardino, M., and Acquaotta, F.: Exploring the advantages of automated stations to retrieve continuous weather and snow-related data in high-elevation sites (Monte Rosa massif - Western Italian Alps), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9399, 2025.

EGU25-11449 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Signals of a superconducting gravimeter at the high-alpine Mt. Zugspitze show that a satellite-derived snow depth image improves the simulation of the snow water equivalent evolution 

Franziska Koch, Simon Garscoin, Korbinian Achmüller, Paul Schattan, Karl-Friedrich Wetzel, César Deschamps-Berge, Michael Lehning, Till Rehm, Karsten Schulz, and Christian Voigt

Estimating the amount of snow, its evolution and spatiotemporal distribution in complex high-alpine terrain is currently considered as one of the most important challenges in alpine hydrology and water resources management. This is predominantly caused by the lack of accurate information on the spatiotemporal variations of snow water equivalent (SWE) in vast regions with no sensor to measure SWE beyond local scale. At Mt. Zugspitze, Germany, a superconducting gravimeter senses the gravity effect of the seasonal snow, reflecting the temporal evolution of SWE in a few kilometers scale radius. An introduction into the novel sensor setup will be given including the sensitivity of the integrative gravimetric signal regarding the spatially distributed snowpack and the cryo-hydro-gravimetric signal changes. We used this new observation to evaluate two configurations of the Alpine3D distributed snow model. In the default run, the model was forced with meteorological station data. In the second run, we applied precipitation correction based on an 8 m resolution snow depth image derived from satellite observations (Pléiades). The snow depth image strongly improved the simulation of the snowpack gravity effect during the melt season. This result suggests that satellite observations can enhance SWE analyses in mountains with limited infrastructure.

How to cite: Koch, F., Garscoin, S., Achmüller, K., Schattan, P., Wetzel, K.-F., Deschamps-Berge, C., Lehning, M., Rehm, T., Schulz, K., and Voigt, C.: Signals of a superconducting gravimeter at the high-alpine Mt. Zugspitze show that a satellite-derived snow depth image improves the simulation of the snow water equivalent evolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11449, 2025.

EGU25-12462 | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

Improving understanding and prediction of the mountain water cycle – overview and initial results from the INARCH Common Observation Period Experiment, 2022–2024 

Chris DeBeer, John Pomeroy, Ignacio López Moreno, James McPhee, and Stephen O'Hearn

The International Network for Alpine Research Catchment Hydrology (INARCH, https://inarch.usask.ca) is a cross-cutting project of the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP) to better understand alpine cold regions hydrological processes, improve their prediction, diagnose their sensitivities to global change, and find consistent measurement strategies.  At its core is a global network of 38 highly-instrumented mountain observatories and experimental research sites in 18 countries and six continents, which are testbeds for detailed process studies on mountain hydrology and meteorology, developing and evaluating numerical simulation models, validating remotely sensed data, and observing, understanding, and predicting environmental change.  INARCH has completed a Common Observing Period Experiment (COPE) over the period 2022–2024, collecting high-quality measurements along with supplementary observations and remote sensing campaigns, to produce a common, coherent, and well-documented and described data set of mountain meteorology and hydrology.  These data will be used to address key INARCH science questions and for a series of hydrological process diagnostic modelling evaluations and analyses.  The aim is to better understand why models produce various behaviours and to see if models benchmark various known aspects and regimes of the coupled atmospheric-cryospheric-hydrological system.  Model diagnostic evaluations will emphasize atmospheric, snow, glacier, and water processes in high mountain terrain and include sparse forest, non-needleleaf vegetation, glaciated, and alpine windblown sites.  This has not been done globally in alpine regions and could be potentially very powerful.  The presentation will discuss progress in the COPE, an overview of the data management and initial results, and next steps in the analyses.

How to cite: DeBeer, C., Pomeroy, J., López Moreno, I., McPhee, J., and O'Hearn, S.: Improving understanding and prediction of the mountain water cycle – overview and initial results from the INARCH Common Observation Period Experiment, 2022–2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12462, 2025.

EGU25-12602 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Snow water equivalent on an Alpine glacier from continuous cosmic ray neutron sensing and numerical modelling 

Rainer Prinz, Marie Schroeder, Michael Binder, Harald Schellander, Michael Winkler, and Lindsey Nicholson

The assessment of snow water equivalent (SWE) is crucial for hydrological studies in glaciated catchments to quantify accumulation and ablation of a seasonal snow cover for both, the glaciated and non-glaciated terrain. Presently, the majority of the SWE assessment on glaciated terrain relies on manual measurements once or a few times per year, given the limited techniques for continuous SWE monitoring and the challenging conditions in a high mountain environment. Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) offer to overcome these limitations providing sub-daily SWE estimates derived from neutron counts.
This study employs a CRNS installed on an Alpine glacier (Hintereisferner, Austria) over three years, complemented with an additional CRNS for one winter roughly 300 m lower in elevation along the glacier’s central flow line. Comparing CRNS outputs with frequent manual SWE measurements, the results demonstrate close agreement in SWE and snow density. The CRNS were found to be remarkably resilient in harsh conditions, providing nearly continuous hourly data over the measurement period. Additionally, the study evaluates at the CRNS locations the performance of two snow models, which might be considered as end members of model complexity – SNOWPACK and ΔSNOW in its latest version. While SNOWPACK, with its physically-based approach, yields the best results, ΔSNOW stands out for its simplicity, requiring only daily snow depth observations as input and performs almost as well as SNOWPACK in terms of mean absolute SWE error. 
Comparing the SWE measurements with winter precipitation from weighing gauges distributed in the catchment gives interesting details of precipitation gradients with elevation. Precipitation gradients interpolated from non-glaciated to glaciated terrain are considerably higher than on non-glaciated terrain only. On the latter, empirical bulk correction factors are frequently applied, which might fail on glaciers due to their different topographic setting. This highlights the need of separate treatment of snow on glaciers in hydrological models for correct SWE representation across the catchment. 

How to cite: Prinz, R., Schroeder, M., Binder, M., Schellander, H., Winkler, M., and Nicholson, L.: Snow water equivalent on an Alpine glacier from continuous cosmic ray neutron sensing and numerical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12602, 2025.

EGU25-12832 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Importance of Springs and Groundwater in the Hydrological Dynamics of Mountain Basins in Southern Chile 

Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Elizabet Lizama, Javiera Sobarzo, Brian Reid, Bastián Morales, Mario Lillo, Alfonso Fernández, and Diego Rivera

Mountain systems are experiencing significant impacts from changes in precipitation and temperature, directly affecting natural water reservoirs like glaciers and snow. Projections suggest that glaciers in some ranges may vanish entirely by the end of this century. Currently, the loss of glacier mass is already altering streamflow and impacting dependent ecosystems. Snow cover has decreased globally, especially at lower elevations, due to more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. This has dramatically changed the hydrology of mountain basins in the last decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of global water resources.

Groundwater recharge in mountains occurs through two main pathways: shallow flows replenishing aquifers formed by coarse sediments like slope deposits, and deep flows. These surface aquifers significantly contribute to runoff, especially during dry periods, by buffering streamflow. Studies highlight their critical role in hydrological systems.

In the wet Andes, groundwater plays a vital role in downstream flows amidst changing climatic conditions. However, the impact of cryosphere recession and altered precipitation patterns on mountain aquifer recharge and groundwater discharge remains poorly understood. This gap is particularly evident in the Southern Glaciological Zone, where mountain recharge processes lack comprehensive research.

Through isotopic monitoring, researchers analyzed glacial melt contributions in the Allipén headwater basin of the Wet Andes. Measurements of stable isotopes (18O and 2H) were taken seasonally across snow, glacial melt, lagoons, groundwater, and streamflow in nested basins. Using the MixSIAR model, the study showed that groundwater was the primary contributor in most basins, with its share ranging from 56% to 62%. Ponds followed with contributions of 13.5% to 23%, while glacier thaw accounted for 11% to 18%, despite glaciers covering just 1.5% of the basin area.

Hydrogeochemical analyses from springs, rivers, and wells across the basin provided insights into groundwater dynamics and rock-water interactions, especially in the volcanic context of the Allipén sub-basin. Measurements of physical-chemical parameters and major ions (e.g., Ca2+, Na+, HCO3-) revealed significant geological influences on water composition. Igneous and volcanic areas contributed higher sodium and potassium levels due to silicate alteration, while sedimentary zones showed higher sulfate concentrations from detrital material leaching.

A PHREEQC model confirmed processes like mineral dissolution and ion exchange, highlighting increased ion concentrations downstream due to prolonged water-rock contact. The findings emphasize the importance of understanding water-rock interactions and their influence on groundwater flow and chemistry. This study underscoring the role of geology in shaping water resource sustainability.

How to cite: Somos-Valenzuela, M., Lizama, E., Sobarzo, J., Reid, B., Morales, B., Lillo, M., Fernández, A., and Rivera, D.: Importance of Springs and Groundwater in the Hydrological Dynamics of Mountain Basins in Southern Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12832, 2025.

EGU25-13117 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Cryosphere monitoring and modeling in Central Asia: integrating in-situ observations, remote sensing, and community-driven approaches 

Abror Gafurov, Olga Kalashnikova, Anesa Sasivarevic, Djafar Niyazov, Valeria Selyuzhenok, Akmal Gafurov, and Adkham Mamaraimov

The cryosphere plays a critical role in Central Asia, particularly in terms of water availability for agriculture and energy production via hydropower stations. Glaciers serve as essential sources of both seasonal and long-term water supply, while snow storage in mountainous regions significantly influences seasonal water availability. Consequently, the accurate estimation of water resources stored in glaciers and seasonal snow is vital for the effective management of transboundary water resources. However, limitations in data availability pose significant challenges to comprehensive water resource assessments.

To address these challenges, we aim to demonstrate methodologies for conducting studies under data-limited conditions. This includes leveraging available observations and conducting field campaigns in high-altitude regions to enhance understanding of cryospheric changes. Additionally, we employ remote sensing data to extend observational coverage and address gaps in remote and inaccessible areas. This approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of the cryosphere's role in hydrological forecasting.

Furthermore, we highlight an ongoing project that actively involves local communities in observational data collection, thereby improving both the quality of records and operational understanding of the cryosphere. By expanding in-situ measurement networks, we aim to enhance the accuracy of water resource assessments.

Our ultimate goal is to improve water resource availability assessments in Central Asia and to support policy dialogue on water resource management by integrating scientific knowledge into hydrological forecasting. The methodologies and case studies presented here may also be applicable to other regions with similar geographic and climatic conditions, where water resources are critical for human well-being and data availability remains limited.

How to cite: Gafurov, A., Kalashnikova, O., Sasivarevic, A., Niyazov, D., Selyuzhenok, V., Gafurov, A., and Mamaraimov, A.: Cryosphere monitoring and modeling in Central Asia: integrating in-situ observations, remote sensing, and community-driven approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13117, 2025.

EGU25-13257 | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

Challenges in Alpine Snow and Ice Hydrology 

John Pomeroy

Advances in alpine snow and ice hydrology have occurred due to the relentless efforts of field researchers to study snow processes in remote research sites, improvements in automated instrumentation, advances in remote sensing, and improvements in numerical modelling.  Crucial has been the joint consideration of the mass and energy conservation equations and phase change in various calculation procedures.  For instance, energy budget snowmelt and icemelt methods have replaced calibrated, anti-physical and highly uncertain temperature index melt models.  Slope, aspect, remote shading, katabatic flow and wind flow over complex terrain are considered in energy and mass balance calculations.  Albedo decay considers changes in grain size and increasingly addresses deposition of impurities such as soot.  Snow redistribution by wind and by gravity have been recognized as important processes controlling snow accumulation.  Blowing snow redistribution has advanced from flat-earth physics to 3-D complex terrain representations of saltation and suspension transport and sublimation due to turbulent transfer with blowing snow particles.  Snow redistribution by forest canopies considers the role of canopy structure in interception and of the competing processes of unloading, sublimation and melt in ablating canopy snow.  Snow-soil interactions consider the role of freezing soils on heat flow to snow and infiltration of snowmelt.  Snow depth can be measured by LiDAR from planes and drones and snow-covered area and albedo estimated by satellite.

However, several challenges remain unsolved or very uncertain.  Advection of latent and sensible heat from bare ground or open water to snow or ice is not fully understood in complex terrain.  Ice ablation from glaciers terminating in proglacial lakes is uncertain. Alpine blowing snow calculations do not fully consider the role of terrain roughness and sparse vegetation on transport fluxes and atmospheric exchanges.  Wind flow calculations in steep alpine terrain are still problematic and incapable of reliable estimation of wind speed and direction. Intercepted snow calculations lack an understanding of wind erosion and redistribution from forest canopies.  Snow avalanche calculations used in hydrology are highly empirical and tuned to regional observations, so lack the flexibility and global robustness of physically based methods.  Snow water equivalent observations still depend on gravimetric methods and lack reliable high resolution remote sensing approaches.  Snowfall measurements are too sparse and in wind swept terrain are still highly uncertain due to wind-induced undercatch and other gauge errors.  Albedo impacts from atmospheric deposition on snow and ice and biological magnifiers such as snow and ice algae are understood but not incorporated in calculations.  The role of edge effects such as treelines, glacier edges, canopy gaps and ridges on upscaled hydrological responses are incompletely understood.  And the full understanding of what fine-scale processes are emergent or are compensated for in larger scale energy and water budget calculations is still being developed.

This talk considers the advances in and the prospects for improving snow and ice process understanding, parameterisation and prediction in alpine catchments and calls for new research to solve the remaining uncertainties.

How to cite: Pomeroy, J.: Challenges in Alpine Snow and Ice Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13257, 2025.

EGU25-14123 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Contrasting glacier responses to climate change in Central Asian Basins 

Zhihua He, John W. Pomeroy, and Fuqiang Tian

This study investigated the responses of glaciers to changes in air temperature and precipitation in two Central Asian glacierized basins, namely the Ala-Archa basin in Kyrgyzstan, where 16% of the area is covered by glaciers, and the Tailan River basin in China, with 33% glacier coverage. A ∆h-parameterization approach was coupled with the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) to simulate glacier dynamics.  CRHM uses physically based algorithms to simulate the full range of mountain hydrocryospheric processes such as energy balance snow and ice melt, slope/aspect influence on irradiance, energy balance precipitation phase, blowing snow transport and sublimation, avalanches, firnification and firn to ice conversion, subsurface storage and runoff processes, surface water detention, actual evapotranspiration and hydrograph routing.  The Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) versions from 1.0 to 7.0 were employed to validate the modeled glacier changes. Bias-corrected ERA5 reanalysis data were used to reconstruct the meteorological and energy conditions on glaciers over the historical period from 1950 to the present. Thanks to the robust physical foundation of CRHM, which requires minimal effort in parameter identification, the contrasting glacier responses in the two basins can be predominantly attributed to differences in local climate, surrounding terrain, and energy processes. The preliminary results suggest a strong dependence of the glacier area response to climate change on terrain characteristics such as slope, aspect, and self-shadowing. Meanwhile, the response of glacier thickness is more sensitive to elevation and the distance from the central flow line. The total glacier area in the Tailan River basin is much less sensitive to warming compared to that in the Ala-Archa basin due to its greater mean glacier thickness. In contrast, the streamflow response in the Tailan River basin is more sensitive to climate warming because of its larger glacier coverage. These modeling findings offer valuable insights into how local glaciation, snow, firn and ice exposure, terrain and climate condition the streamflow response to climate change in Central Asian glacierized basins. 

How to cite: He, Z., W. Pomeroy, J., and Tian, F.: Contrasting glacier responses to climate change in Central Asian Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14123, 2025.

EGU25-14633 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

A Thirty-Year Precipitation Record at Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon and the Importance of Bias-Corrected, Sub-Daily Measurements in a Changing Climate 

Rosamond Tutton, Sean Carey, John Pomeroy, and Richard Janowicz

Precipitation (snow and rainfall) is an essential climate variable for hydrological modelling, flood forecasting, avalanche preparedness and assessing permafrost stability and ecological change. In data sparse regions, such as the Canadian Sub-Arctic, long-term sub-daily precipitation measurements are rare, yet imperative to understanding environmental feedback and the impact of extreme events. The Wolf Creek Research Basin (WCRB) in the southern Yukon, Canada, provides a unique long-term hydrological and climate record across forested, shrub and alpine ecozones. This study presents hourly precipitation recorded in WCRB since 1993 using a variety of instruments. The diversity in measurement techniques and range of monitoring elevations allows for thorough consideration of precipitation phase and lapse rate.

We outline the challenges of maintaining and compiling in-situ, remote monitoring data spanning decades of change. This study facilitates discussion around best practices for cold-region precipitation data products by using transparent data filtering, correction and in-filling. We consider the efficacy and uncertainty of measurement techniques and bias correction methods for wind-induced losses at a site equipped with multiple concurrent instruments, shields and gauges. Our results explore spatiotemporal trends in the preliminary dataset and compare to available data in the southern Yukon. This work provides critical insights into the improvement and longevity of cold region, remote precipitation monitoring and the importance of long-term data sets in a changing climate.

How to cite: Tutton, R., Carey, S., Pomeroy, J., and Janowicz, R.: A Thirty-Year Precipitation Record at Wolf Creek Research Basin, Yukon and the Importance of Bias-Corrected, Sub-Daily Measurements in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14633, 2025.

EGU25-16352 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Comparing Satellite-Derived and Isotope-Based Estimates of Snow Contribution to Runoff in an Alpine Catchment 

Natalie Ceperley, Bettina Schaefli, Fatemeh Zakeri, and Gregoire Mariethoz

Despite the importance of snow contributions to the water resources collected by alpine catchments, their precise measurement and monitoring remain challenging due to their complexity and inaccessibility. Stable Isotopes of water (δ18O, δ2H, and δ17O) allow separation of streamflow into water that entered the catchment as snow versus rain. Meanwhile, progress in process-based simulations of snow (physics-based FSM2oshd model) fused with satellite snow cover data has enhanced the accuracy of gridded data products such as snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff from snow melt (ROS) in mm at a resolution of 250m (Mott, 2023).

Between June 9, 2016, and September 24, 2018, 2548 water samples from the Avançon de Nant (Western Swiss Alps, 13.4 km2, 1200 to 3051 m a.s.l.; see Michelon et al., 2023) were analyzed for δ18O, δ2H, and δ17O and compared with 157 snow and 95 rain samples taken in the catchment during the same period. A simple mixing model of snow and rain was used to estimate the porporation of daily discharge originating from snow (Psnow). Over the same period, the discharge (Q) was measured and and multiplied with Psnow to estimate discharge from snow, Qsnow.

There is a clear seasonality of the correspondence between the ROS and Qsnow: during the low flow period, Qsnow exceeds ROS. In contrast, during the peak flow periods, e.g., during the spring “freshet” period, ROS exceeds Qsnow. Their correlation is statistically significant during the spring freshet (April–June), because direct snow runoff, hving undergone minimal storage, dominates the streamflow. When snow-free periods are excluded, the Qsnow, as determined by isotopes, is more correlated with the ROS than is the total Q. This difference is obscured when including ROS-free periods. The discrepancy we see can be explained by the fact that ROS does not account for storage and release beyond the grid scale, namely the catchment scale, and thus may eventually be the basis for a travel time calculation.

This example in a single catchment allows inter-scale comparisons, moving beyond validation to developing larger-scale monitoring tools. Collecting and analyzing stable isotope samples is labor-intensive and not universally possible. Thus, finding tools that enable the information they deliver to be gleaned from other sources is very useful. Ongoing work compares how these comparisons vary according to other satellite-derived products, such as SWE, at a higher resolution, which may be more ubiquitous. 

References

Michelon, A., Ceperley, N., Beria, H., Larsen, J., Vennemann, T., and Schaefli, B.: Hydrodynamics of a high Alpine catchment characterized by four natural tracers, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1403–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1403-2023, 2023.

Mott, R.: Seasonal snow data for Switzerland OSHD - FSM2sohd (1.0), https://doi.org/10.16904/ENVIDAT.404, 2023.

 

How to cite: Ceperley, N., Schaefli, B., Zakeri, F., and Mariethoz, G.: Comparing Satellite-Derived and Isotope-Based Estimates of Snow Contribution to Runoff in an Alpine Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16352, 2025.

EGU25-17507 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Eco-hydrological insights from a snow drought in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment in Central Italy 

Christian Massari, Marco Dionigi, Marco Donnini, Lucio Di Matteo, Davide Fronzi, Francesco Avanzi, Giovanna Battipaglia, Elisabetta Preziosi, David Cappelletti, Andrea Spolaor, Catalina Segura, and Daniele Penna

Mediterranean mountainous basins play a vital role in supplying water and supporting ecosystem services. However, these environments are increasingly threatened by climate change. Recent studies reveal that mountainous catchments in the Mediterranean region, which experienced substantial snow accumulation from 1970 to 1990, are now facing reduced snow levels and faster snowmelt since 2000. These changes can significantly affect the seasonality and volume of runoff and groundwater recharge as well as changes in vegetation phenology. Given the expected drier and warmer Mediterranean region the implications for these cathcments remain poorly understood.

This study explores the eco-hydrological implications of reduced snow accumulation using ground observations from a newly established catchment: Ussita (18 km²), a tributary of the Nera River located in the Apennines within the Monti Sibillini National Park, Central Italy. We analyzed two contrasting hydrological years—2022-2023, which featured substantial winter snow accumulation (up to 300 cm at high elevations) and a hot summer, and 2023-2024, which has thus far recorded a severe snow drought with less than 30 cm at the same locations.

The experimental setup includes an array of instruments: pressure transducers for river and groundwater levels, electrical conductivity meters, soil moisture probes, throughfall collectors, tree talkers, and a weather station. Additionally, stable water isotope data from precipitation, groundwater, soil, and surface water were used to trace water sources across hydrological compartments.

Preliminary results, using these collected data complemented with remote sensing observations of evaporation and gross primary productivity, highlight shifts in runoff seasonality and a faster runoff decline as well as anticipation of the growing season with an anticipation of the decline of soil moisture levels thus underscoring the significant impacts of snow droughts on eco-hydrological dynamics of this cathcment. Ongoing analysis aims to deepen our understanding of these eco-hydrological changes and their broader implications for the region.

How to cite: Massari, C., Dionigi, M., Donnini, M., Di Matteo, L., Fronzi, D., Avanzi, F., Battipaglia, G., Preziosi, E., Cappelletti, D., Spolaor, A., Segura, C., and Penna, D.: Eco-hydrological insights from a snow drought in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment in Central Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17507, 2025.

EGU25-17515 | Posters on site | HS2.1.3

Inferring glacier meteorology with physical modeling and remote sensing 

Shaoting Ren, Evan S. Miles, Michael McCarthy, Achille Jouberton, Thomas E. Shaw, Pascal Buri, Marin Kneib, Prateek Gantayat, and Francesca Pellicciotti

Meteorology is crucial to understand the rapid response of mountain glaciers to climate warming, but is often challenging to observe and simulate due to site inaccessibility, instrument maintenance and the complex interactions between glaciers and their surroundings. Recent, high-resolution, globally-available remote sensing observations create an opportunity to exploit the observed changes in glacier volumes and surface properties to infer bias-corrected high-mountain meteorology from climate reanalysis. In this study, we develop a unified method for model inversion based on Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian inference, and then evaluate it on four benchmark glaciers with extensive in-situ measurements of surface meteorology (Argentière Glacier and Aletsch Glacier in the European Alps, Abramov Glacier and Parlung No.4 Glacier in High Mountain Asia).

Our approach is a multiparameter optimization that uses a physical-based land-surface model (Tethys-Chloris) driven by an ensemble of statistically-downscaled ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets, with remote-sensing-derived glacier surface mass balance and glacier albedo as targets. With this method, we obtain the bias of air temperature, precipitation and incoming shortwave radiation to correct the reanalysis data during the period 2015-2019 at the four sites. The results show that the derived multiyear meteorology is spatially variable over the glaciers and agrees with independent in-situ observations at each site. The good performance of this method in different climatic conditions paves the way to derive multiyear glacier meteorology on the world’s mountain glaciers and constrain globally a key control on their response to climate change.

How to cite: Ren, S., S. Miles, E., McCarthy, M., Jouberton, A., E. Shaw, T., Buri, P., Kneib, M., Gantayat, P., and Pellicciotti, F.: Inferring glacier meteorology with physical modeling and remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17515, 2025.

EGU25-19386 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Understanding Snowmelt Interaction with the Environment in a Changing Climate: Insights from a Small Coastal Mountainous Catchment in Svalbard 

Ekaterina Rets, Adam Nawrót, Bartłomiej Luks, and Przemysław Wachniew

In the face of climate change transforming snow cover and permafrost in the Arctic, it is important to enhance our understanding of how snowmelt interacts with the environment. Here, we use stable isotopes of 17O, 18O and 2H coupled with hydro-chemical tracers and process-based modelling, to trace snowmelt from the evolution of the snowpack to river runoff and groundwater recharge in a coastal Arctic environment. The study is based on the data obtained from an unglaciated Fuglebekken catchment of 1.27 km2 situated in the southwest Spitsbergen. This area represents sea terraces and coastal mountain catchments that are becoming increasingly common with deglaciation. We reveal the dynamics of the snowmelt partitioning between surface runoff and underground recharge throughout the summer season. Change in isotopic content within the snow profile during snowpack evolution indicates significant fractionation processes. The study underlines the importance of accurately addressing uncertainties when using the isotopic hydrograph separation method and discusses possibilities for tackling these uncertainties.

How to cite: Rets, E., Nawrót, A., Luks, B., and Wachniew, P.: Understanding Snowmelt Interaction with the Environment in a Changing Climate: Insights from a Small Coastal Mountainous Catchment in Svalbard, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19386, 2025.

EGU25-19756 | Orals | HS2.1.3

Estimating snow distribution using drones and machine learning in Swedish mountain catchments 

Ilaria Clemenzi, David Gustafsson, Viktor Fagerström, Daniel Wennerberg, Björn Norell, Jie Zhang, Rickard Pettersson, and Veijo Pohjola

The snowpack stores a substantial part of the seasonal freshwater in cold environments, impacting catchment runoff generation and timing. Alterations of the seasonal snowpack may affect the availability of water resources, with implications for energy production, relying on meltwater from mountain catchments. Spatial and temporal variability of snow processes at multiple scales challenges snowpack monitoring, snow volume estimations and runoff predictions. Drone acquisition techniques have emerged as a new methodology for snowpack monitoring to obtain dense and high spatial-resolution snow data. This study uses drone observations to estimate snow depth close to the accumulation peak in the Överuman catchment, Northern Sweden. We compared the snow depth average and distribution in the catchment areas where drone acquisitions occurred and in the whole catchment. We explored the use of topographic and wind shelter factors and different machine learning methods to obtain snow depth maps of the entire catchment. We further evaluated the impact of aggregating snow depth data at various spatial resolutions on snow spatial distribution and runoff. Results show high correlations of snow depth, especially with wind shelter factors, which are among the selected predictors in cross-validation, together with topographic roughness at a fine spatial scale. Drone observations provided valuable insights into the snow depth variability to improve process understanding and model development. 

How to cite: Clemenzi, I., Gustafsson, D., Fagerström, V., Wennerberg, D., Norell, B., Zhang, J., Pettersson, R., and Pohjola, V.: Estimating snow distribution using drones and machine learning in Swedish mountain catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19756, 2025.

EGU25-1235 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

The challenges of implementing early warning systems in a context of climate change: The case of the poorly gauged or ungauged watersheds of Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. 

adou kouassi doré bérenger Kouacou, valérie Borrell Estupina, Jean-emmanuel Paturel, and koffi fernand Kouame

Early warning is a key element in flood risk management. It primarily relies on a thorough understanding of hazards and available observations. However, in areas where hydrological data are scarce or unavailable, the lack or rarity of records poses a significant obstacle to the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This challenge is particularly common in tropical developing regions, where ungauged or poorly gauged basins are frequent. Over the past decades, major scientific initiatives, such as the "Decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)" by IAHS, have sought to address this scientific bottleneck.

How, then, can the limited available data be leveraged for EWS under non-stationary conditions? Our study focuses on floods affecting small, dynamic urban or peri-urban basins that are poorly gauged in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. We specifically examine the evolving dynamics of hydrological responses in relation to changes in the physical characteristics of these basins. To achieve this, we selected four representative catchments, analyzed historical hydrological data, and traced the urbanization dynamics in these areas.

Our results reveal that the evolution of hydrological behaviors can be correlated with urbanization dynamics. These findings offer promising opportunities to inform flood forecasting models within the framework of EWS. This work was conducted as part of a scientific project aimed at updating hydrological standards in West Africa, under the IRN ActNAO network of the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) and UNESCO's Friend-Water program.

How to cite: Kouacou, A. K. D. B., Borrell Estupina, V., Paturel, J., and Kouame, K. F.: The challenges of implementing early warning systems in a context of climate change: The case of the poorly gauged or ungauged watersheds of Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1235, 2025.

EGU25-2899 | PICO | HS2.1.6 | Highlight

Hydrologically-informed estimates of future malaria suitability in Africa 

Mark Smith, Thomas Willis, Elizabeth Mroz, William James, Megan Klaar, Simon Gosling, and Christopher Thomas

Future climate changes will alter the geographic locations that are environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The primary driver for these shifts is often considered to be the thermal constraints and dependencies of both the Anopheles mosquitoes that act as malaria vectors and of the Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites themselves. The availability of surface water for vector breeding sites is also a critical requirement for malaria transmission; without surface water bodies, there would be no malaria. However, continental scale analyses typically lack any representation of hydrology, instead relying on simple rainfall thresholds that are a poor proxy for water body availability.

Here we incorporate more robust estimates of breeding site availability into estimates of areas of malaria suitability across Africa. We go beyond the use of a single hydrological model by presenting a multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble of global hydrological models and global climate models, weighted based on model performance when applied to preindustrial (i.e., pre-intervention) conditions. We then use this ensemble to estimate changes in malaria transmission season length across Africa.

Including hydrology results in a much more complex pattern of malaria suitability across Africa and identifies river corridors as foci of endemic malaria. This is particularly important given the concentration of human populations around such river corridors. Models predict a net decrease in areas environmentally suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 as the climate warms and dries, though the geographical locations of suitability shift. Notable decreases in length of transmission season are observed across West Africa. Conversely, increases are observed in the Ethiopian highlands, in Lesotho and also along waterways through South Africa, particularly the Orange River. Compared with models that use rainfall as a proxy for water body availability, future malaria suitability changes cover a smaller area, but are associated with greater changes in season length. Hydrologically-informed estimates are also more sensitive to the choice of emissions scenario.

Despite the net decrease in suitable areas, the projected growth in human population means that the number of people living in malaria suitable areas will increase by over 80 million to 2100. Including hydrology emphasises this increase: the number of people estimated to live in a potentially malaria endemic area (with a transmission season of over nine months) by 2100 will be over four times greater than estimated by rainfall driven models. However, we note that malaria is a complex disease and driven by more than climate alone.

How to cite: Smith, M., Willis, T., Mroz, E., James, W., Klaar, M., Gosling, S., and Thomas, C.: Hydrologically-informed estimates of future malaria suitability in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2899, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2899, 2025.

EGU25-2962 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Historical and Projected Water Resources Vulnerability using Machine Learning and SWAT Model 

Tarekegn Dejen Mengistu, Mingyu Kim, Il-Moon Chung, and Sun Woo Chang

Sustainable and adaptive water management strategies require holistic approaches to understand complex systems, mitigate risks from shifting weather patterns, and manage disruptions to hydrological cycles. The main objective of this study was modeling the impact of climate change on water resources vulnerability using machine learning (ML) and the SWAT model, leveraging CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in Upper Gilgel Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia. Six ML models were tested for predicting hydroclimatic events, with Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) outperforming others in simulating ensemble climate interactions. The ensemble SWAT model performance demonstrated strong agreement between simulated and observed values, supported by indicators Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) values of 0.93, 0.91, and -1.08 for calibration and 0.94, 0.93, and -2.32 for validation periods respectively, confirming reduced input uncertainties using bias-corrected datasets. A novel Hydrological Vulnerability Index (HVI) framework was developed based on water balances to quantify watershed vulnerability across baseline and future scenarios. The HVI ranges from low to extreme, with lower values indicating resilience to hydrological stress and higher values reflecting severe vulnerability. Baseline assessments revealed 54.03% of areas with low HVI, indicating strong resilience, whereas SSP245 showed a significant decline in low HVI (26.48%) and an increase in extreme HVI (43.45%), driven by higher evapotranspiration and extreme drought conditions. SSP370 showed improved hydrological balances, with low HVI covering 49.21% and extreme HVI decreasing to 10.98%. Conversely, SSP585 displayed a slight increase in low HVI (49.51%) but persistent vulnerabilities, with high HVI (14.01%) and extreme HVI (18.02%) concentrated in key regions. The findings highlight substantial spatial variability in hydrological stress, emphasizing the need of scenario-specific water management strategies. Moderate HVI reflects intermediate vulnerability, while extreme HVI denotes sensitive risks of water scarcity, drought, and flooding, with severe implications for ecosystems and communities. Extreme rainfall events under SSP585 pose additional challenges, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and increased water treatment costs. Effective water conservation measures and adaptive infrastructure are essential to mitigate these risks. Furthermore, increased atmospheric water demand under SSP370 and SSP585 raises the potential for drought, threatening agricultural productivity and ecological health. Precipitation patterns under SSP245 suggest manageable water stress, while SSP370 and SSP585 reveal greater challenges from higher emissions, including extreme rainfall and associated flood risks. The HVI framework integrates climate projections with actionable insights, offering a comprehensive approach to sustainable water management, adaptive infrastructure, and targeted interventions. Hence, innovative policies are critical to address extreme HVIs ensuring resilience against water scarcity and ecosystem degradation. This study underscores the importance of coupling data-driven hydrological analysis with climate responsiveness for effective watershed management and environmental sustainability.

Funding: This Research was carried out under 2025 KICT Research Program (Development of IWRM-Korea Technical Convergence Platform Based on Digital New Deal) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT.

How to cite: Mengistu, T. D., Kim, M., Chung, I.-M., and Chang, S. W.: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Historical and Projected Water Resources Vulnerability using Machine Learning and SWAT Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2962, 2025.

EGU25-4422 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Hydrological Modelling in Data-Sparse Regions: Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in the Lake Kivu Basin 

Naomie Kayitesi, Alphonce Guzha C., Loïc Gerber, and Gregoire Mariethoz

The Lake Kivu catchment, in the African Great Lakes Region, faces significant hydrological challenges due to unsustainable Land Use Land Cover Changes (LULCC) and climate change. Steep slopes, abundant rainfall, and human-induced activities exacerbate environmental disasters, including floods, landslides, and soil erosion, particularly in flood-prone areas such as the Sebeya River catchment. Over the past decades, the catchment has witnessed notable LULCC, including a decline in forest cover from 26.6% to 18.7% and an expansion of agricultural land from 27.7% to 43% between 1990 and 2000. Subsequent forest recovery to 24.8% by 2020 highlights the impact of Rwanda’s sustainable development initiatives. Rapid population growth and urbanization continue to alter hydrological patterns, increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater recharge. Climate change projections suggest an intensification of extreme precipitation events, escalating flood risks in the region.

This study aims to enhance understanding of the interplay between LULCC, climate change, and hydrological dynamics in the Lake Kivu basin by addressing critical gaps in streamflow data and applying advanced hydrological modelling techniques. A robust stochastic methodology was developed to fill missing streamflow data, enabling accurate analysis of historical trends and future scenarios. The mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) was employed to evaluate historical impacts of LULCC and to simulate future hydrological responses under various LULC and climate scenarios, integrating data from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

Our findings underscore the importance of addressing data scarcity in hydrological research, particularly in data-sparse regions. This research contributes to sustainable land and water management by providing actionable insights into mitigating hydrological disasters and building resilience against future climate extremes.

How to cite: Kayitesi, N., Guzha C., A., Gerber, L., and Mariethoz, G.: Hydrological Modelling in Data-Sparse Regions: Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in the Lake Kivu Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4422, 2025.

EGU25-4849 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Unauthorized Water Consumption and Cocoa-Driven Nature Loss in Ghana's Pra Basin 

Moctar Dembélé, Seifu Admassu Tilahun, and Olufunke Cofie

Cocoa production in Ghana has long been associated with deforestation and encroachment into protected areas, yet little is known about its water consumption patterns. Although data on cocoa yield and planted areas are available, comprehensive insights into water use by cocoa plantations remain limited. This study, conducted under the Transforming Agrifood Systems in West and Central Africa (TAFS-WCA) initiative by CGIAR, presents an innovative modeling framework to bridge this knowledge gap. By integrating open-access Earth observation data, global geospatial datasets, and the Water Accounting Plus (WA+) framework, the study quantifies water availability and water consumption linked to cocoa production and encroachment-driven activities in the Pra Basin, Ghana's largest southwestern river basin and a critical cocoa production zone spanning approximately 23,200 km² across five regions.

Over the 2004–2020 period, the basin received an average annual rainfall of 1,430 mm, with 88% consumed as evapotranspiration, amounting to a total water consumption of 29 km³/year. Cocoa production accounts for 30% of this total, with monoculture cocoa dominating (84%), agro-protected cocoa contributing 14%, and shaded cocoa consuming just 2%. Notably, agro-protected cocoa, which encroaches on protected areas, constitutes 24% of water consumption in these sensitive zones, with 1.22 km3/year of unauthorised water consumption, posing significant threats to biodiversity conservation. Cocoa water productivity ranges from 0.019 kg/m³ to 0.061 kg/m³, highlighting variability across regions.

These findings underscore the critical implications of agricultural-driven nature loss on water resources and biodiversity, emphasizing the need for sustainable cocoa production practices. The study provides actionable insights to inform policy and guide decision-makers in balancing agricultural development with environmental conservation.

How to cite: Dembélé, M., Tilahun, S. A., and Cofie, O.: Unauthorized Water Consumption and Cocoa-Driven Nature Loss in Ghana's Pra Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4849, 2025.

Clean water availability is crucial for ensuring sufficient water of appropriate quality to meet both human and ecosystem needs. Recent research underscores the significance of water quality as a critical factor limiting water availability for sectoral uses. Water quality is a cornerstone of the Sustainable Development Agenda, intersecting with nearly all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Specifically, SDG Target 6.3 outlines an ambitious vision: “By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution, eliminating dumping, and minimizing the release of hazardous chemicals and materials; halving the proportion of untreated wastewater; and substantially increasing recycling and safe reuse globally.”

To monitor progress toward this target, SDG Indicator 6.3.2 serves as a key metric, tracking the percentage of water bodies that achieve “good” ambient water quality. This designation refers to levels of dissolved oxygen, salinity, nutrients (total nitrogen – TN and total phosphorus – TP), and acidity that do not compromise ecosystem or human health. However, significant data gaps pose a major challenge, particularly in Africa, where assessing both current conditions and future trajectories remains difficult, hindering efforts to fully understand the severity and extent of water quality deterioration across the continent.

The emergence of large-scale water quality models offers a potential solution to this challenge. These models provide extensive geographic coverage and sufficient spatial resolution to simulate water quality gradients along river networks. For instance, a continental-scale water quality model for Africa was developed to simulate TN and TP loads and concentrations at a daily time step. Using this model, critical areas and hotspots of TN and TP pollution were identified for the period 2017–2019, based on United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) thresholds for assessing SDG Indicator 6.3.2. According to UNEP’s criteria, a water body is classified as having “good ambient water quality” if at least 80% of monitored values meet the specified thresholds. The model estimates that 44% of African rivers fail to meet the threshold for TP, while 15% fail to meet the threshold for TN. When both TN and TP are considered together, 34% of rivers do not qualify as having “good ambient water quality.” Geospatial analysis highlights pronounced nutrient pollution hotspots in North Africa, the Niger River Delta, the Nile River Basin, the Congo River Basin, and specific areas in Southern Africa. These regions are strongly associated with high inputs of fertilizers, manure, and wastewater discharge.

These findings, along with the generated data augment the UN Environment Global Environment Monitoring System for Freshwater (GEMStat) database, offering a tool to monitor SDG target 6.3 progress in Africa and project potential outcomes by 2030, especially in areas where little or no information are available on whether water quality is suitable to support sustainable development, despite its fundamental importance. For instance, by highlighting areas that do not qualify as having “good ambient water quality,” these results provide insights for African national policy and decision makers to prioritize remediation efforts, develop targeted policies, interventions, and regulatory frameworks to improve water quality. 

How to cite: Nkwasa, A.: Perspectives on African water resources with a focus on ambient river water quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5203, 2025.

EGU25-5537 | PICO | HS2.1.6

Spatiotemporal patterns in nitrogen concentrations in African rivers 

Suzanne Jacobs and Lutz Breuer

Precipitation and hydrological processes are important drivers of water quality, as they regulate the transport of nitrogen, as well as other substances, through various flow paths, including surface runoff, subsurface and groundwater flow. Climate change, in combination with land use and management changes, will likely affect nitrogen concentrations in rivers and streams, with potential consequences for aquatic ecology and the suitability of water for drinking, agricultural and industrial use. Understanding drivers of nitrogen concentrations can help to improve our ability to predict the impact of future changes on water quality. This study presents an overview of the current knowledge on nitrogen and drivers of spatiotemporal patterns in African rivers and streams and identifies avenues for future research.

Data on nitrogen concentrations were extracted from 243 peer-reviewed studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, covering 32 out of 48 countries. Differences were observed between sites characterised by different land use types, with urban sites having highest median total nitrogen and nitrate concentrations (3.9 and 1.2 mg N L−1, respectively), most likely resulting from wastewater discharge. Seasonality influences nitrogen concentrations, showing higher or lower concentrations during the wet season indicating increased inputs or dilution processes, respectively, depending on the nitrogen compound and land use type. These findings highlight the importance of having a thorough understanding of nitrogen transport and transformation processes. Yet, compared to other continents, only few studies investigated these processes in African rivers and stream. Furthermore, only very few long-term (> 8 years) studies are available, impeding the analysis of trends in nitrogen concentrations alongside changes in climate and land cover. To strengthen the knowledge base and improve our ability to predict climate and land use change impacts on water quality, long-term monitoring as well as in-depth research on the underlying processes are required, also covering those parts of Africa, which are currently understudied. 

How to cite: Jacobs, S. and Breuer, L.: Spatiotemporal patterns in nitrogen concentrations in African rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5537, 2025.

EGU25-6308 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Hydrological variability of large rivers in West Africa: gap filling with earth observations and daily rainfall-runoff modelling under climate change 

Papa Malick Ndiaye, Andrew Ogilvie, Ansoumana Bodian, Luc Descroix, Thomas Legay, and Rémi Guillet

In West Africa, hydrological variability remains poorly understood in many watersheds where observation networks are sparse. After gap-filling discharge time series through earth observation datasets and daily rainfall-runoff modeling, past and future hydro-climatic variability in the upper catchments of the Gambia, Koliba-Corubal, Kayanga-Geba, and Senegal rivers is investigated. CHIRPS rainfall and GLEAM evapotranspiration global datasets are used to simulate runoff in 38 sub-basins over 1981-2023 with the GR4J model. Seven RCM models from CORDEX-Africa are then employed to investigate climate change impacts on river flow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2036-2065. Robust performance observed in 34 basins (KGE > 0.5) confirm the effectiveness of the approach including at a daily time step in poorly gauged basins. A dry period (1981- 1993), followed by two wet periods (1994-2007, 2008-2023) are identified using standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized streamflow index (SSI) and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Increased variability in extreme flows and a later flood are also observed in some basins. Climate change projections point towards an important decrease in flow in the Senegal river subbasins, reaching up to 70% under both scenarios, compared to the reference period (1986-2015). In the Gambia, Kayanga-Geba and Koliba Corubal subbasins, no homogenous trend is detected with some RCMs leading to a decrease while others, including GDFL and CSIRO circulation models, project an increase in runoff. Understanding non-stationarity in West African basins in the context of climate change is essential to support stakeholders in defining adequate river basin development strategies.

Keywords: Gap filling, Remote sensing datasets, Hydrological Modelling, Hydrological Variability, West Africa, Large Rivers; GR4J, CORDEX-Africa, Climate Change. 

How to cite: Ndiaye, P. M., Ogilvie, A., Bodian, A., Descroix, L., Legay, T., and Guillet, R.: Hydrological variability of large rivers in West Africa: gap filling with earth observations and daily rainfall-runoff modelling under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6308, 2025.

Sahelian Africa is increasingly exposed to extreme hydrological events. Both fluvial and pluvial floods are becoming more severe and frequent, posing significant new threats to the livelihoods of local communities. To enhance resilience to floods, the development of effective operational tools for assessing risk and supporting decision-making is crucial. When it comes to pluvial floods, the first step towards this goal is to improve the understanding of extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation events and their spatial patterns in the target areas. Within the SLAPIS Project framework, this work does so for the Sirba river basin (Burkina Faso and Niger) proposing a methodology to address the challenges posed by the scarcity of hydrological data typical of the Sahel region. First, it was assessed how well gridded precipitation products (ERA5, TRMM, TAMSAT) match observed rainfall records. Then, bias correction of selected datasets was performed and tested to evaluate its reliability when spatially interpolated through the whole basin. The Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution was finally applied to the corrected datasets to investigate the precipitation extremes exploiting the bulk of the available data, unlike classical extreme value analysis, which relies on only a small subset of the data. This procedure resulted in the production of extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation maps with enhanced accuracy and robustness, providing novel information on events that can cause pluvial flooding at the settlement scale. The methodology adopted in this study could be applied to other Sahelian basins where enhanced knowledge of extreme precipitation magnitudes and patterns is needed.

How to cite: Saretto, F. and Ganora, D.: Mapping precipitation extremes for pluvial flood risk management in the Sirba river basin, Burkina Faso., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6328, 2025.

EGU25-10776 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Sediment retention by large dams in Africa 

Sofie Annys and Amaury Frankl

Despite their crucial role in water management and hydropower generation, African dams are often overlooked in global dam research. This study examines the geographic distribution and characteristics of large dams in Africa, resulting in a newly compiled database of 1047 large dams with a collective storage volume of 948.7 km³, representing 29% of the continent’s annual discharge. Considering the critical impact of sediment retention on downstream rivers and coastal systems, we estimated the total sediment retention by these large dams. To do this, we applied Brune’s (1953) widely used relationship between trapping efficiency (TE) and the ratio of a reservoir’s storage capacity (C) to its average annual water inflow (I). Storage capacity data were sourced from our database, while a 1 km-gridded runoff dataset provided the average annual water inflow. We then linked the calculated trapping efficiencies with sediment yield data for Africa, and we accounted for the sediment cascade and interdependencies between dam catchments. For 616 dams, representing 98% of the total storage volume, sufficient data allowed us to estimate total sediment retention at 459.9 Megaton per year (Mt yr⁻¹). Significant reductions in land-to-sea sediment fluxes were observed for the Mediterranean Sea (197.6 Mt yr⁻¹), Indian Ocean (74.5 Mt yr⁻¹) and Gulf of Guinea (56.6 Mt yr⁻¹), with additional reductions to the North Atlantic Ocean (42.0 Mt yr⁻¹), South Atlantic Ocean (27.6 Mt yr⁻¹), and within endorheic basins (61.5 Mt yr⁻¹). Our estimates are consistent with reported data at catchment level, and comparable to sediment retention in major river basins such as the Yangtze and Pearl Basins, though slightly lower. Our findings highlight the increasing importance of catchment management and restoration. As 40% of electricity in Africa south of the Sahara is generated from hydropower and irrigation water supply becomes increasingly important, mitigating storage capacity losses is essential, especially in light of climate change intensifying the hydrological cycle, leading to higher evaporation losses and higher sediment yields.

How to cite: Annys, S. and Frankl, A.: Sediment retention by large dams in Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10776, 2025.

EGU25-10900 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Flood hazard Mapping and 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling for Sebeya River in Northwestern Rwanda.  

Joseph Hahirwabasenga, Fainaz Inamdeen, Erik Nilsson, and Hussein Bizimana

Sebeya catchment in north-western Rwanda has been subject to frequent floods over the years. Despite recent investments in structural measures for flood protection in the catchment, a flood event in May 2023 caused a loss of 97 human lives and damages to around 2,200 buildings. The event urged authorities to invest in additional measures and improve flood management practices to minimize the cost of future flood events. To support the decision-making and planning in flood management practices, this study conducts a flood hazard assessment in the Sebeya catchment using a HEC RAS 1D model based on storm events of 10 to 100-year return periods. A 14 km long reach of Sebeya River was modeled using a 12.5-m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and under the assumption of steady flow for each daily time step to simulate water surface profiles. The model was calibrated with measurements of 181 daily water levels ) by adjusting Manning’s roughness values and validated against 152 daily water levels ). The RMC-Best Fit Software was then applied to analyze flood frequency and generate flood hazard maps for storm events of 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods. The flood hazard maps can support policymakers and decision-makers in integrating flood hazard assessments into planning and development processes, enhancing efforts to effectively mitigate flood hazards in the Sebeya catchment and other regions in Rwanda. Moreover, the results will extend the capacity of the Government of Rwanda to understand flood risk and improve efficiency in investments for flood control measures.

 

Key words:  HEC-RAS 1D; Flood analysis; Steady flow; Flood hazard; Sebeya catchment; Rwanda

How to cite: Hahirwabasenga, J., Inamdeen, F., Nilsson, E., and Bizimana, H.: Flood hazard Mapping and 1D Hydrodynamic Modeling for Sebeya River in Northwestern Rwanda. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10900, 2025.

Water security in the Global South is increasingly threatened by rapid socioeconomic changes, including urbanization, population growth, and the expansion of irrigated agriculture. These dynamics not only intensify competition for limited water resources but also amplify vulnerability to climate change impacts. The Sudano-Sahelian region, including the Sokoto Rima Basin (study area) in Nigeria, is particularly sensitive to these pressures, having experienced severe droughts in the 1970s and 1980s. This study adopts a participatory approach, leveraging stakeholder input to develop socioeconomic scenarios within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 4.5 and 8.5 frameworks. It projects future water use in the region and evaluates the combined effects of socioeconomic and climate change. While the CMIP6 GCMs agree on a wetter future climate for the region, uncertainty persists regarding the magnitude of these changes. Drivers of socioeconomic changes are better understood due to direct stakeholders involvement. Key findings indicate that by 2050, irrigated land, and population are expected to increase by 470%, and 200% respectively, relative to the reference period (1990–2004). This growth is projected to drive water demand up by 190%, outpacing the anticipated 160% increase in water availability due to climate-driven changes. The results underscore that socioeconomic changes pose a significant risk to water security and must be considered when planning climate change adaptation. Informed by stakeholder feedback, the study highlights adaptation strategies, including the adoption of water-efficient technologies, mechanized irrigation, and advanced seed technologies. Small-scale stormwater harvesting through dam construction is proposed as a viable strategy to conserve water and support municipal supplies during drought periods. This novel participatory based scenario development approach provides valuable insights into managing water resources under concurrent socioeconomic and climate challenges, with implications for policy and planning in water-scarce regions.

 

How to cite: Muhammad, S. K., Walsh, C., and O'Donnell, G.: Stakeholder-Informed Socioeconomic Scenarios for Water Use Projections: A Novel Approach to Assessing Climate Change Impacts in the Sudano-Sahelian Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11114, 2025.

EGU25-11311 | PICO | HS2.1.6

An application of complementary strategic level and high-resolution modelling of the Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus in the transboundary Zambezi watercourse 

Scott Sinclair, Wyatt Arnold, Mikhail Smilovic, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, and Paolo Burlando

The combined impacts of climate change, river basin management, planning and development on the components of the Water-Energy-Food-Environment (WEFE) nexus are different depending on the specific scale and location where they are assessed. This implies that a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic components should be modelled together to obtain a comprehensive picture of the inter-connections and tradeoffs among the WEFE components. The main goal of the high-resolution WEFE modelling framework we will present is to provide a quantitative framework for evaluating nexus indicators at a range of locations and at various space and timescales within a river basin. The framework can then be subjected to different scenarios of projected climate, land-use, and socio-economic developments as well as infrastructure operation policies to aid in robust planning and development for an uncertain future.

The concept developed makes use of a two-level modelling approach to quantify the impacts:

Firstly, based on a concise description of the basin and bulk infrastructures, the strategic Multi-Objective Robust Decision Making model produces basin operating rules (policies) through optimization with respect to several key WEFE objectives. This allows a subsequent screening analysis to assess tradeoffs among the policies and objectives set for the different sectors.

In a follow up phase, a high-resolution WEFE simulation model, is used to quantify in greater detail the impact on a broader set of evaluation indicators. This is done by implementing the basin infrastructure developments and policies in the high-resolution model and simulating under various future climate and socio-economic development scenarios. The high-resolution WEFE model is based on a detailed description of the river basin and relevant infrastructures and simulates the WEFE nexus at high spatial and temporal resolution using the optimized policies coming from the strategic model. The goal is to compute an extended set of WEFE evaluation indicators.

We will present an outline of the above methodology and selected results of the framework implementation in the transboundary Zambezi river basin, as part of the European Union funded GoNEXUS project.

How to cite: Sinclair, S., Arnold, W., Smilovic, M., Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., and Burlando, P.: An application of complementary strategic level and high-resolution modelling of the Water-Energy-Food-Environment nexus in the transboundary Zambezi watercourse, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11311, 2025.

EGU25-11402 | PICO | HS2.1.6

A risk-based socio-hydrological analysis to prioritize water security in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia 

Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot, Catherine Grasham, Behailu Birhanu, Abebe Mengistu Legasse, Bezaye Gorfu Tessema, and Lutz Breuer

Water scarcity, flooding and water pollution are causing challenges to life and development in regions facing high poverty and environmental degradation. The Awash River Basin, which lies in the arid and semi-arid part of Ethiopia, is facing more frequent drought and flooding. River pollution is at high risk from the rapid urbanization and industrial developments. This study aims to identify the state of water security by analyzing the socio-hydrological systems. A digital overlay analysis conducted to identify the state of water security in the different parts of the Basin. A framework is developed and used by adding more socio-hydrological variables attributed to the risks of pollution, drought, and flooding. The water-security status was ranked on the scale to 1 to 6, where 1 represents the highest water-insecure units and 6 the least water-insecure. The results showed areas in the Northwestern headwaters as well as highlands of the Southeastern parts of the Basin are relatively water secure, while the middle range and downstream areas are most water-insecure, areas in between the headwaters and middle part of the Basin are moderately water-insecure. This prioritization of water security helps to engage water security interventions for national and international agencies working in the Basin. The study emphasizes the application of a modified socio-ecological overlay analysis tool for background assessment in risk-based water security planning and development activities.

How to cite: Gebrehiwot, S. G., Grasham, C., Birhanu, B., Legasse, A. M., Tessema, B. G., and Breuer, L.: A risk-based socio-hydrological analysis to prioritize water security in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11402, 2025.

EGU25-13398 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Hydrological projections for water risk assessment in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region 

Sophie Biskop, Sven Kralisch, Fabian Schreiter, Franziska Zander, Torsten Weber, and Francois Engelbrecht

Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot, and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under low mitigation futures, increasing the risk of devastating droughts. There is increasing concern about water and food security in southern Africa, due to potentially unprecedented climate change impacts on water resources and ecosystems, and limited adaptation options in this water-stressed region. South Africa’s Gauteng Province with more than fifteen million inhabitants is the economic hub of the country and highly vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts, one of the biggest disasters risks South Africa needs to prepare for in a warmer world.

The Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS), west of the Lesotho Drakensberg in the South African interior, connects several mega-dams to secure the water supply of the Gauteng Province. The alarming low water level (~25%) of the Vaal dam after a period of drought culminating in the El Niño drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of the Gauteng Province may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as consequence of a strong regional warming, and in the presence of unprecedented future multi-year droughts the risk exists that the water demand in the Gauteng Province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change.

This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region. To answer this question, the aim of this study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we built process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments. An ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The applied regional climate projections will include the CORDEX-CORE Africa ensemble and newly generated projections from regional climate models (CCAM and REMO-NH) forced with CMIP6 global climate projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can’t longer achieve the critical threshold of storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply South Africa’s Gauteng Region.

The research is part of the “Water security in Africa – WASA” programme, project WaRisCo, which deals with water risks and resilience in urban-rural areas in southern Africa and the co-production of hydro-climate services for an adaptive and sustainable disaster risk management.

How to cite: Biskop, S., Kralisch, S., Schreiter, F., Zander, F., Weber, T., and Engelbrecht, F.: Hydrological projections for water risk assessment in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13398, 2025.

EGU25-15183 | PICO | HS2.1.6

Assessing waterlogging conditions across Ethiopia’s rainfed agricultural landscape 

Peter Molnar, Mosisa Wakjira, and Katrien Descheemaeker

Waterlogging - a phenomenon that leads to poor soil aeration when excess soil water displaces air from the soil - is a critical challenge in heavy clay agricultural soils in humid and sub-humid climates. The resulting air deficit in the root zone inhibits crop growth by impairing root function and reducing transpiration, ultimately affecting crop yields. Agroecological conditions favouring waterlogging, such as the presence of vertisols, intense rainfall and gentle to flat slopes, are prevalent across the main agricultural regions of Ethiopia. In a previous analysis of cropland quality (Wakjira et al., 2024), it was identified that land suitability for cereal crops like wheat is limited especially in the humid parts of the country, highlighting the potential limitations posed by waterlogging. In this study, we conduct a detailed agrohydrological analysis to characterize waterlogging conditions across the rainfed agricultural landscape of Ethiopia. We utilize high-resolution climate, soil and elevation data to simulate root zone water balance components, particularly soil moisture at a daily time step, using a curve number-based hydrological model. We quantify and map waterlogging magnitude and duration at 1x1 km grid scale for the period 1981-2010.

Results indicate that hyper-humid areas experience severe waterlogging with an average air deficit of up to 90%, i.e., the root zone is only 10% aerated. An estimated 9% of the rainfed agricultural region experiences air deficit exceeding 50%, lasting for a total duration of about 65 days per year on average. This suggests that proper remedial measures, for example proper seedbed preparation, field drains, and selection of waterlogging-tolerant variety crops could significantly contribute to bridging the yield gaps in these regions of Ethiopia. In our analysis, we evaluate the potential of improved soil drainage to enhance crop yields across the study area, using empirical relations derived from existing paired yield measurements from well-drained and waterlogged conditions. This research provides critical insights to farmers, planners, policymakers, and decision-makers on the urgent need for agricultural soil drainage in waterlogging-prone areas - a challenge that currently receives insufficient attention.

Reference

Wakjira, M. T., Peleg, N., Six, J., and Molnar, P.: Current and future cropland suitability for cereal production across the rainfed agricultural landscapes of Ethiopia, Agric. For. Meteorol., 358, 110262,  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110262, 2024.

How to cite: Molnar, P., Wakjira, M., and Descheemaeker, K.: Assessing waterlogging conditions across Ethiopia’s rainfed agricultural landscape, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15183, 2025.

EGU25-16015 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Climate change impacts the small-scale hydropower potential for the Pungwe B hydropower scheme in Zimbabwe using a multi-model climate ensemble. 

Moreblessing Muzava, Donald T. Rwasoka, Alexander Mhizha, and Webster Gumindoga

 Climate change is expected to significantly impact hydropower generation in Southern Africa, particularly for small-scale producers. The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on small-scale hydropower potential for the Pungwe B hydroelectric project. The methodology combined hydro-meteorological data, 15 CMIP6 GCMs' climate projections, statistical analyses (Mann-Kendall, Sen's slopes), and HEC-HMS hydrological modelling to simulate streamflow. The impacts of climate change on hydropower potential were determined using trends analysis and Power Potential Duration Curves (PPDC). The downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data was processed and analysed using Python programming, employing bilinear interpolation for spatial downscaling and mean bias correction to ensure data consistency and accuracy. The rainfall data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections) was used in hydrological modelling to simulate streamflow and assess climate impacts on hydropower. The HEC-HMS model performed satisfactorily in simulating streamflow with acceptable accuracy (NSE = 0.57, RMSE = 0.70, PBias = 4.25%). Future temperature trends show significant increases under all SSP scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.45, SSP5.85), with positive z-test statistics and p < 0.05. The hydropower potential results indicate distinct trends across different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Under SSP1 (Sustainability), characterized by low population growth, high economic growth, and a focus on sustainability and equality (SSP1.26), a significant majority (80%, or 12 out of 15) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) predict increases in hydropower potential. In contrast, under SSP2 (Middle of the road), marked by medium population growth, medium economic growth, and a continuation of current trends (SSP2.45), a substantial proportion (87%, or 13 out of 15) of GCMs predict declines. Similarly, under SSP5 (Fossil-fuelled Development), characterized by low population growth, high economic growth, and a focus on fossil fuel development (SSP5.85), a majority (73%, or 11 out of 15) of GCMs also predict declines in hydropower potential. ACCESS-CM2 and HadGEM models show the largest declines (-27 MW), while INM-CM5 predicts increases across all scenarios. Hydropower potential predictions varied by Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS): High ECS groups consistently predicted decreases (with a few exceptions), medium ECS groups showed mixed trends, and low ECS groups predicted increases. These findings imply that climate change will likely have a negative impact on hydropower potential in the region with the degree of impacts dependent on the magnitude of climate change as represented by ECS. Overall, the study highlights climate change's uncertain impacts on hydropower, stressing need for adaptive management and improved climate models.

Keywords: ECS, SSP; HEC-HMS; CMIP6, Power Potential Duration Curve, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6.

How to cite: Muzava, M., Rwasoka, D. T., Mhizha, A., and Gumindoga, W.: Climate change impacts the small-scale hydropower potential for the Pungwe B hydropower scheme in Zimbabwe using a multi-model climate ensemble., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16015, 2025.

EGU25-16491 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Challenges in Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Limited Catchment: The case of the barrage de l’Amitié, using HEC-HMS and GR4H 

Golab Moussa Omar, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Christian Salles, Gil Mahe, and Mohamed Jalludin

Djibouti, located in the Horn of Africa, experiences limited and sporadic rainfall events, typical of arid climates. Although infrequent, these rainfall episodes can be intense and trigger flash floods, resulting in significant damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. With more than 70% of the country’s population concentrated in Djibouti-ville, mitigating flood risks and ensuring sufficient water resources are key priorities for sustainable development. In response to recurring flood threats, the barrage de l’Amitié was constructed on Oued Oueah to protect Djibouti-ville from catastrophic flood events, a role it appears to fulfill effectively. Beyond its primary function of flood control, the dam also supports agricultural irrigation and potentially improves groundwater recharge, as infiltration in the reservoir area can help replenish Djibouti's aquifers

The barrage de l’Amitié located in a catchment of about 494 km², an area typified by arid conditions and subject to only a few of intense rainfall events each year. These irregular yet powerful events are essential for recharging the local water table (Djibouti aquifer), which is used to supply drinking water to the city of Djibouti. However, monitoring efforts are constrained by the single hydrometric station located roughly seven kilometers upstream from the dam. Because it does not measure flows below one meter, smaller or moderate runoff events go unrecorded. This gap introduces notable uncertainty into hydrological models, which depend on accurate data to represent the full range of runoff processes.

To address these challenges, we used five rainfall–runoff events for calibration and validation of two recognized hydrological models: HEC-HMS and GR4H. HEC-HMS employs the Curve Number (CN) loss method and Clark’s Unit Hydrograph, whereas GR4H applies a reservoir-based conceptual approach to capture surface and subsurface flow processes. In addition to standard calibration, a cross-validation procedure tested the transferability of parameters from one event to another, providing a stricter measure of model robustness given the limited dataset.

In HEC-HMS, several events produced high Nash-Sutcliffe (NASH) coefficients during calibration, demonstrating accurate hydrograph simulations under those specific conditions. Yet, validation runs often returned negative NASH values, suggesting that parameter sets calibrated for one event did not translate well to others in this arid environment. Meanwhile, GR4H also calibrated effectively for most events but showed vulnerabilities when confronted with multi-peak storms or complicated runoff patterns, again reflected by negative NASH values in certain cross-validation scenarios.

Overall, both models highlight the need for enhanced data collection particularly measurements capturing low-flow conditions essential for groundwater recharge and irrigation. Improved rainfall monitoring and stage discharge measurements below one meter would significantly enhance model reliability and better inform water resource strategies for Djibouti-ville. By refining model structures, expanding the observational network, and exploring infiltration processes more thoroughly, water managers could achieve a more holistic understanding of the hydrology in Oued Oueah, ultimately reinforcing flood protection and supporting the region’s agricultural and economic goals.

How to cite: Moussa Omar, G., Paturel, J.-E., Salles, C., Mahe, G., and Jalludin, M.: Challenges in Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Limited Catchment: The case of the barrage de l’Amitié, using HEC-HMS and GR4H, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16491, 2025.

EGU25-16960 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Quantifying precipitation estimates and its uncertainty from a dense Commercial Microwave Link network in Nigeria  

Arjan Droste, Bas Walraven, Aart Overeem, Jan Priebe, Daniele Tricarico, and Remko Uijlenhoet

High-resolution accurate and timely rainfall estimates are essential in many hydrological applications, ranging from flood early warning to urban water management, and essential in many agricultural services. However, many regions in the world, predominantly in the Global South, lack sufficient coverage from dedicated ground-based rainfall sensors such as weather radars and rain gauge networks, and thus have to rely on satellite rainfall products. These products, however, have the downside that their spatial or temporal resolution is often too low for hydrological applications at the kilometer scale. Moreover, many of these products have limited accuracy with regards to measuring near-surface rainfall, especially in the tropics.

An ‘opportunistic’ alternative for high resolution near-surface rainfall estimates comes from the signal attenuation experienced by commercial microwave links (CMLs) in cellular communication networks. When it rains, the radio signal between two cell phone towers is (partially) attenuated, and this rain-induced attenuation can be used to infer the average rainfall intensity along the path. Typically, every 15 minutes the minimum and maximum received signal levels are stored in network management systems by mobile network operators for quality monitoring purposes. Based on these signal levels it is possible to estimate path-averaged rainfall intensities, which can be interpolated to produce high-resolution rainfall maps. Several studies have already shown the potential of this opportunistic measuring technique on the African continent, though most with a relatively small CML data set.

In this study we investigate the use of several thousands of CMLs in Nigeria, predominantly located in heavily urbanized areas across the country. We compare the path-averaged rainfall intensities from these CMLs to the few rain gauges in the area, and quantify the uncertainty range in such a dense CML network. We do a similar comparison by comparing interpolated rainfall maps from CMLs to available gridded (satellite) rainfall products on a seasonal basis. As such, we show the added value and the associated uncertainties in measuring rainfall using this opportunistic source of rainfall estimation in a region that typically lacks this hydrometeorological information.

How to cite: Droste, A., Walraven, B., Overeem, A., Priebe, J., Tricarico, D., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Quantifying precipitation estimates and its uncertainty from a dense Commercial Microwave Link network in Nigeria , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16960, 2025.

EGU25-17526 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Groundwater monitoring and modelling, a crucial challenge in a semi-arid and poorly documented region affected by a high poverty rate (southern Madagascar) 

Romane Berthelin, Fara Pascale Rakotomandrindra, Rojin Alimohammad Nejad, Camille Ollivier, Ony Nantenaina Andriamiandrisoa, Matthieu Texier, Tsitola Benahy Ramananjato, Ludovic Oudin, Frédéric Satgé, Albert Olioso, Simone Fonda, and Simon D. Carrière

Groundwater plays a key role in providing access to drinking water, especially in semi-arid regions where surface water is scarce or absent for much of the year. In the semi-arid region of southern Madagascar, approximately 2,000,000 people face one of the highest poverty rates in the world, making them particularly vulnerable to climatic hazards. As a result, describing and predicting groundwater dynamics is essential to understand and anticipate drought-related humanitarian crises. How to estimate groundwater recharge in a such poorly documented area?

Our work consisted of comparing two complementary approaches for estimating groundwater recharge. First, the Groundwater Resource Observatory for Southwestern Madagascar was established in 2014 in difficult logistical settings to monitor piezometric level from 16 boreholes located in various hydrogeological systems. This observatory provides long-term piezometric time series at an hourly time step, which were used to calculate recharge following the Water Table Fluctuation (WTF) Method.

Second, a spatial hydrology approach was developed to estimate potential recharge using precipitation and evapotranspiration global products based on remote sensing data. The two approaches were compared, revealing the potential and limits of both. Based on these results, we compare our findings with health outcomes, offering new avenues for research.

How to cite: Berthelin, R., Rakotomandrindra, F. P., Alimohammad Nejad, R., Ollivier, C., Andriamiandrisoa, O. N., Texier, M., Ramananjato, T. B., Oudin, L., Satgé, F., Olioso, A., Fonda, S., and Carrière, S. D.: Groundwater monitoring and modelling, a crucial challenge in a semi-arid and poorly documented region affected by a high poverty rate (southern Madagascar), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17526, 2025.

EGU25-18515 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Assessment of flash flood discharges in Madagascar using vidéos: methodological simplification, sensitivity analysis and feedback 

Ambininkasinirina Tahinandriambelonandro, Eric Gaume, and Andry Razakamanantsoa

The island of Madagascar experiences an average of two tropical storms each year, bringing torrential rains and destructive flooding. Despite their impact, these floods have been poorly documented until now. However, with the rise of mobile telephony, there is a significant increase in available privately captured videos of flooding rivers. Advances in video analysis techniques, such as Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), enable systematic use of these videos to estimate water velocities and flows. This opens new opportunities for more effective monitoring of exceptional floods.

The application of LSPIV techniques to videos taken by amateurs on their smartphones, however, poses a number of methodological problems, notably linked to the stabilization and rectification (orthorectification) of the shots, requiring the identification, in the images, of landmarks with known coordinates (at least four landmarks). The aim of the study, the results of which will be presented, is to demonstrate that it is possible to produce reliable flow estimates from LSPIV processing of videos, using landmarks located in geographic databases (Google map, Lidar surveys) instead of reference points obtained from time-consuming topographic field surveys.

This study is based on the analysis of twenty videos of controlled flows (hydroelectric power station return channels) and five videos of major floods, including four in Madagascar. In all cases, treatments based on approximate reference points were compared with treatments based on landmarks derived from topographic field surveys. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to assess the levels of uncertainty in velocity and flow estimates associated with the location errors of these landmarks. The study also explored the usefulness of Lidar data for determining the geometry (cross-sections) of river beds, which is essential for estimating discharges.

The results show that the LSPIV approach, even in a degraded context and with controlled uncertainties, can be used to estimate extreme flood discharges in a robust manner. The proposed simplified methodology paves the way for generalizing the use of flood videos for similar environments, providing discharge estimates along with associated uncertainties, assessed using Monte Carlo simulations.

How to cite: Tahinandriambelonandro, A., Gaume, E., and Razakamanantsoa, A.: Assessment of flash flood discharges in Madagascar using vidéos: methodological simplification, sensitivity analysis and feedback, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18515, 2025.

EGU25-18978 | PICO | HS2.1.6

Does the water-energy dynamics control the landscape characteristics and hydrological responses? 

Jr-Chuan Huang, Chun-Wei Chen, Girum Getachew Demeke, and Sekh Mohinuddin

Landscape is the explicit features carved by natural and human forcing. With the exception of urban areas or large artificial constructions, most landscapes are implicitly regulated by water-energy dynamics. However, there has been limited systematic exploration of the linkage between water-energy dynamics and landscape features. This study employs the Budyko framework (comprising the aridity index and evaporative index) alongside landscape metrics (including discharge, land cover, and topographic features) to explicitly illustrate how water-energy dynamics sculpt the landscape. K-means classification and ANOVA were utilized for classification and significance testing, respectively. The results indicate that the five classes derived from the aridity and evaporative indices generally correspond to conventional climate zones. Furthermore, the landscape metrics associated with these five classes can be statistically identified. Transitioning from the very humid to arid classes, baseflow indexes dramatically decreased from 0.71 to 0.04. Consequently, discharge variability increased from 0.38 to 0.68. In terms of topographic features, the average basin slope decreased along the humidity gradient. Interestingly, the junction angles of the stream network also decreased in accordance with the declining humidity gradient. It is evident that water-energy dynamics serve as a primary control mechanism in shaping the landscape and regulating its evolution. Under the influence of global warming, potential changes in landscape features can be assessed through the lens of water-energy dynamics.

How to cite: Huang, J.-C., Chen, C.-W., Getachew Demeke, G., and Mohinuddin, S.: Does the water-energy dynamics control the landscape characteristics and hydrological responses?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18978, 2025.

EGU25-19975 | ECS | PICO | HS2.1.6

Studying monsoonal convective extremes at high resolution in the Dakar region 

Yahaya Bashiru and the Yahaya Bashiru

Sub-Saharan West Africa is among the regions with the highest climate risk, especially the semi-arid Sahel region which is characteristically a climate hotspot. The Sahel lies at a large latitudinal gradient of mean temperature and precipitation. Therefore, even small variations in the seasonal meridional migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) lead to drastic hydro-climatic shifts, such as pronounced drought or increased flood risk --- with severe socio-economic consequences. Densely populated and rapidly growing urban areas, such as Dakar, Senegal, with many informal settlements that have limited adaptation capacity, are disproportionately affected by intense rainfall events. These often lead to flash floods and consequently pose a threat to human lives and infrastructure.

In a future climate, research suggests that the frequency of extreme weather associated with mesoscale thunderstorm, or convective, systems (MCS) will increase and hence improved warnings are required. However, the sparseness of observational data in the region makes reliable prediction of the initiation and evolution of MCS near impossible. Also, forecasts from numerical weather models often exhibit low skills in this region. For the improvement of risk preparedness, short-term prediction based on statistical inference from observational data referred as 'nowcasting' at a lead time of 1-6 hours, is a promising option that can outperform dynamical models. In the current study a new high-resolution observational network for MCS is described. The automatic weather station (AWS) network, currently consisting of 14 multi-variable stations including atmospheric and soil variables, sends data at 1-min resolution to a data cloud through the local mobile network. Within the project "High-resolution weather observations east of Dakar (DakE)" additional 60 low cost weather sensors and 12 flood sensors have been installed. This network of stations will contribute to the understanding of sub-mesoscale (100m-10km) features that are typically under-resolved by a typical operational network and under-represented in numerical models.



How to cite: Bashiru, Y. and the Yahaya Bashiru: Studying monsoonal convective extremes at high resolution in the Dakar region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19975, 2025.

 

The Lake Chad Basin (LCB), a critical hydrological system in Sub-Saharan Africa, supports over 40 million people across several countries. Characterized by arid and semi-arid climate, the basin’s water resources are under constant threat from declining precipitation and decreasing natural recharge, over pumping, and transboundary management complexities. The main land uses in the basin are the native vegetation and irrigated areas (together with wetland areas). A 3D ‘quasi steady-state’ regional groundwater flow model of the Chad Formation, based on MODFLOW code, to evaluate quantitative recharge and transboundary water fluxes within the basin, to quantitatively develop abstraction scenarios and further impacts on groundwater, lake and connected rivers was developed. Also, long-term sustainability, under different climatic conditions and water abstraction was simulated.

The basic assumption adopted is that the hydrological conditions during the considered model baseline period (2008-2011) are representative of system functioning. To estimate the natural recharge and for the proposed ‘dry scenario’, the strategy adopted for the simulation was to apply a scaling factor of -10% to the baseline recharge data sets obtained from Modflow run. To meet future demand resulting from population growth, water abstraction increases by 10%  in  the areas where abstraction currently occurs (baseline).

Obtained simulation for the Quaternary aquifer indicates that the impact of reducing recharge by 10% is much more important for aquifer than increasing water abstractions, an expected output for a large-scale model as the one developed. For specific areas of the basin and model run at greater scale, outputs reveal a different behaviour as limited by contour conditions.

 

How to cite: Candela, L., Salehi Siavashani, N., and Elorza, F. J.: Numerical Model for Lake Chad Basin Groundwater. Results from simulation of water resources under different climatic and abstraction conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20190, 2025.

EGU25-21754 | PICO | HS2.1.6

Evaluating Drought and Dry Spells Effects on Crop Productivity inNorthern Ghana 

Salomon Obahoundje, Seifu Tilahun, and Petra Schmitter

West Africa is acutely vulnerable to climate change, which exacerbates droughts and floods driven
by fluctuations in dry and wet spells. This study investigates the spatiotemporal variability of these
spells across northern Ghana's agroecological zones—specifically the Sudan Savanna, Guinea
Savanna, and Transitional zones—over 40 years (1984–2024). Utilizing daily precipitation data from
the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and soil moisture
content from NASA’s FLDAS Noah Land Surface Model, we assessed critical indices such as
consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and drought variability throughout the
rainy season from April to October. Results indicate that while the maximum CDD in the Sudan
Savannah decreased from 14 days in 1984-1993 to 11 days by 2014-2024, it still remains lower
than figures from the previous four decades. Increased CDD was recorded in the Guinea Savannah
and Transitional zones, with 2024 displaying higher values than all prior decades. Notably, the
Standardized Crop Yield Index (SYI) mirrored these fluctuations, showing deficits during the drier
years of 2014-2017, and increased yields during normal years, though significantly impacted by
the severity of drought conditions. These findings underscore the critical need for adaptive
management strategies in agriculture to enhance crop resilience and ensure food security. Given
the implications of these climatic shifts, particularly in the critical planting and growing periods,
effective water management and adaptable farming practices are paramount to mitigate the
socioeconomic risks associated with unpredictable rainfall patterns and varying crop yields in the
region.

How to cite: Obahoundje, S., Tilahun, S., and Schmitter, P.: Evaluating Drought and Dry Spells Effects on Crop Productivity inNorthern Ghana, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21754, 2025.

The study assesses dynamics of transboundary water cooperation in the Mekong River Basin focusing on relationships between China and the Lower Mekong countries, namely, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Water diplomacy is deployed as an analytical framework to investigate the extent to which China's Lancang Mekong Cooperation (LMC) since 2015 has carved out a new geopolitical, economic, and environmental landscape. The LMC has become influential and competes with other cooperation mechanisms, such as the Mekong River Commission. China has shared more hydrological data and information and releases emergency water downstream for addressing droughts. These do not demonstrate China's shift toward cooperation but could be regarded as China's 'dressing up domination as cooperation'. 

How to cite: Lee, S. and Shin, N.: The Emergnece of the Lancang Mekong Cooperation and its Impacts on the Mekong River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-96, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-96, 2025.

Water, an indispensable resource for sustaining life and ecosystems, is increasingly at the center of geopolitical tensions, particularly in transboundary river basins. This study introduces "Hydrocide" as a conceptual framework to analyze and address the deliberate manipulation of water resources that exacerbates socio-environmental vulnerabilities in downstream nations. Hydrocide captures the intersection of environmental injustice, resource governance, the root causes of disasters, and the socio-political dynamics of water management, framing such actions as a form of systemic oppression with long-term consequences. Rooted in the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and no natural disasters, this framework reconceptualizes water crises as socially constructed phenomena, shaped by inequitable policies and governance rather than natural inevitabilities.

Using the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GMB) basin as a case study, this work examines the implications of upstream water management practices, including dam and barrage construction, water diversion, and the absence of equitable transboundary agreements. The downstream impacts on Bangladesh, a riparian nation heavily reliant on these rivers, include seasonal water shortages, artificial floods, ecological degradation, and socio-economic instability. These challenges are compounded by the dual forces of climate change—such as glacier melt and extreme monsoonal rains—and population growth, which intensify demand and strain water availability.

The framework of "Hydrocide" offers a novel lens to conceptualize these challenges, bridging the discourse between environmental justice and global governance of shared water resources. This approach emphasizes the need for cooperative mechanisms, transparent data sharing, and equitable water distribution policies to mitigate the cascading impacts of hydrological mismanagement. By integrating hydrocide into transboundary water crisis management, this study aims to inform sustainable and fair solutions for one of the most vulnerable river basins in the world, while providing a transferable framework applicable to global contexts.

How to cite: Ahmed, B.: Hydrocide: A Conceptual Framework for Transboundary Water Crisis Management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-569, 2025.

Despite the progress in Polish-Ukrainian cooperation on transboundary waters through the establishment of joint regulatory bodies and legislative agreements, the problem of integrated groundwater monitoring still remains unresolved. This study presents the application of remote sensing to address data gaps concerning transboundary groundwater resources. The main advantage of remote sensing measurements is that the data they provide are temporally consistent and include spatial information, unlike point-based in-situ observations. Moreover, due to the use of multiple sensors, remote sensing enables comprehensive studies over large areas simultaneously, which is typically challenging in inaccessible regions.

Currently, only the GRACE/GRACE-FO mission (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and GRACE Follow-On) provides direct measurements of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes, which are largely governed by groundwater storage capacity. Our study presents the quantification of groundwater resources in terms of fluctuations in the shallow unconfined water table by integrating GRACE/GRACE-FO gravity data, precipitation observations, evapotranspiration, river runoff, and groundwater depth. Using machine learning algorithms, data from multiple sources were assimilated, achieving accurate groundwater quantification at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Previous assessments of transboundary groundwater resources in the Bug River basin were based on a sparse and uneven observational network with a density of 0.003 points/km², as well as old (often from the 1980s) hydrogeological maps at a scale of 1:50,000.

The results of our novel approach indicate that groundwater resources in the study area are depleting, primarily due to increased evapotranspiration, despite a stable precipitation level of around 700 mm/year. According to GRACE/GRACE-FO observations, between 2012 and 2023, TWS in the Bug River basin decreased at a rate of 8.8±5.2 mm/year. Our comprehensive study serves as a source for the reassessment of available groundwater resources, providing information on the sustainable allocation of transboundary groundwater resources between Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus.

The study was conducted as part of the project GRANDE-U “Groundwater Resilience Assessment through iNtegrated Data Exploration for Ukraine” (NSF Awards No. 2409395 and 2409396).

How to cite: Solovey, T.: Remote sensing’s role in improving transboundary groundwater monitoring  and sustainable management: The Bug Basin, Polish-Ukrainian-Belarusian Borderland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1338, 2025.

EGU25-3743 | Orals | HS2.1.7

Projected Hydrological Alterations in the Danube River Basin under Climate Change 

Emilio Politti, Carla Catania, Silvia Artuso, and Taher Kahill

This work quantifies the hydrological alterations caused by climate change on 11 major basins of the Danube River. The quantification is performed using the natural discharge (i.e. without water demand and abstractions) between the years 1990 and 2020 as a reference period and the projected discharge between 2030 and 2100 for the SSP-RCP climate change scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Discharges for the reference period and the projections have been simulated with CWatM, a grid-based hydrological model. CWatM was calibrated and tailored for the Danube basin for this case study. The reference period was simulated using as input dataset hydrometeorological data from Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) product while the projected discharge was simulated using ISIMIP3b climate change hydrometeorological datasets for 5 global circulation models (GCM).

Past and future hydrological regimes were used to compute a set of indices from the Hydrological Nature Conservancy Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. These indices quantify the in-stream disturbance regime and the average habitat conditions. Indices were computed using the discharge at the outlet of 11 Danube sub-basins. The differences between the reference and future hydrological regimes were assessed as percentage differences. The percentage differences were calculated for each combination of SSP-RCP—GCM, thus allowing to assess the uncertainty of the results.

The results show marked differences in the projected impacts for the different sub-basins. Overall, the basins in the lower course of the Danube are the most affected under all climate change scenarios, while those in the middle course are somehow more stable. Nevertheless, all sub-basins exhibit a moderate to strong hydrological alteration for at least two indices.

How to cite: Politti, E., Catania, C., Artuso, S., and Kahill, T.: Projected Hydrological Alterations in the Danube River Basin under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3743, 2025.

Austria has set an ambitious goal to produce 100% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. To support this transition and to enable informed energy planning and optimized resource use in the future a detailed national-wide distributed hydrological model of Austria was set up to assess the changes in water balance in more than 50000 river profiles. The model operates on a daily time step and simulates the hydrological processes on a 2x2 km grid in cells that are aggregated into sub-basins of a mean area of 115 km2 and routed along the pre-defined river network. The meteorological inputs for the model comprised high-resolution grids interpolated from station datasets for areas with available observations and low-resolution EOBS grids for small areas outside of Austria with small coverage of available station data.

To account for anthropogenic influences, reservoir operation and water transfer modules were incorporated, significantly improving model performance in affected regions. The model was calibrated and validated using a newly proposed step-wise iterative procedure within the 1991-2020 period, focusing on the interannual flow regime and the monthly water balance. Significant improvements in the robustness of the model were achieved by incorporating remote sensing products of snow cover and soil depth reducing the number of free parameters. The model achieved a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.9 across 532 Austrian profiles, calculated for the interannual regime.

Future water balance changes were projected for 2066–2075 using the MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4 climate model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. A delta-change approach was used to adjust historical air temperature and rainfall records, minimizing biases associated with climate model projections. Results indicate increased mean monthly river discharges during winter and little to no change or slight decreases during summer in most river profiles. These changes are more pronounced in smaller mountainous catchments, where rising air temperatures lead to reduced snowpack accumulation and shorter snow cover durations.

How to cite: Valent, P., Komma, J., and Blöschl, G.: Modelling Austria’s water future: A transboundary national-scale distributed hydrological model for climate change impact assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4039, 2025.

EGU25-4702 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Identifying Patterns of Transboundary Water Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics Based on News Media Articles 

Jiale Wang, Jing Wei, Yongping Wei, and Fuqiang Tian

Over 310 transboundary river basins span across 153 countries, covering 47.1% of the Earth's surface, including 52% of the world’s population, and accounting for almost 60% of the world’s freshwater flow. These river systems flow across political boundaries, creating a complex web of environmental, political, economic and security-related interdependencies. As riparian countries have their respective values, priorities and interests towards shared waters, managing transboundary water resources is a long-term and often challenging process. With the increasing hydrological variability due to climate change, accelerated population growth/urbanization, geopolitical instability, economic development, and global epidemics, the uncertainty in transboundary river water management has further intensified. Existing research offers a broad range of empirical studies based on detailed water event data but has not yielded universally applicable conclusions that can be generalized across all transboundary river basins. News media articles provide a full process understanding of the development of water events, recognized as a valid proxy to track societal values or public opinion on water issues, as well as reflect nuanced insights. This study, based on the constructed global transboundary river water conflict and cooperation news media articles dataset covering 105 out of over 310 transboundary rivers worldwide, with a time span from 1977 to 2022, employs text analysis methods to explore and identify patterns of transboundary river water conflict and cooperation dynamics. The findings will contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamics on global transboundary river conflict and cooperation and provide insights for promoting water cooperation.

How to cite: Wang, J., Wei, J., Wei, Y., and Tian, F.: Identifying Patterns of Transboundary Water Conflict and Cooperation Dynamics Based on News Media Articles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4702, 2025.

EGU25-5883 | Orals | HS2.1.7

Monitoring, modelling and management of persistent, mobile and toxic chemicals in the Danube River Basin 

Matthias Zessner, Meiqi Liu, Steffen Kittlaus, and Ottavia Zoboli

Chemicals are part of our life. Several hundred thousand are used in multiple applications in the European Union (EU) and may ultimately reach water systems. Chemicals are used as pharmaceuticals, personal care products, pesticides/biocides or so-called industrial chemicals. Losses to the environment may occur throughout all stages of the life-cycle of products. Specifically, mobile, persistent and toxic chemicals (PMTs) are considered as major concern for human and environmental health. Exceedances of current environmental quality standards (EQS) are recorded all over Europe. A significant increase in the number of chemicals that need to be considered and a major tightening of EQS is currently under discussion in the EU.

Emission, fate and transport models can help to map the temporal and spatial variability of environmental exposure and support risk assessment for water bodies where monitoring is lacking. They can be used to identify sources and pathways responsible for current exposures and to assess the impact of potential future developments of PMT-exposures in surface water and groundwater. Such scenario assessment may include changes in PMT use, effects of pollution control measures, accidental spills and climate change impacts. TU Wien led and still leads various research projects for the enhancement of monitoring, modelling and management of PMTs in the Danube Basin: (i) Danube Hazard m3c (EU Interreg Danube Transnational Program) (ii) the “Danube case study” in the frame of the project PROMISCES (EU Horizon 2020) and (iii) Tethys (EU Interreg Danube Region).

This contribution provides a short overview on basic considerations, concepts and methods of these activities and exemplifies them on the case of water pollution with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the upper Danube Basin. Investigations show that an upstream located chemical park and diffuse inputs from urban areas are the main sources of perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCA) for surface waters. For perfluorinated sulfonic acids (PFSA), diffuse urban inputs predominate. A large part of the overall emissions is due to legacy pollution, which will persist even if strict source control for PFAS is implemented. Wastewater treatment effluents contribute a share of up to 25% of emissions for both PFAS groups.

Most of the surface waters in the upper Danube River Basin, including the Danube itself, show a low risk of exceeding the threshold of the EU drinking water directive of 100 ng/l for the sum of 20 PFAS. This is of relevance in case that surface waters are used as drinking water source via bank filtration. There is nevertheless a high risk of exceeding the European Commission’s proposed quality standard for surface and groundwater of 4.4 ng l-1 PFOA toxicity equivalents as a sum of 24 PFAS in the Danube and in most of its tributaries. Simulated scenarios show that these risks may be reduced by massive efforts to implement water pollution control measures (including groundwater remediation in hot spot areas). However, the risk might even increase if low effort is made to control water pollution and at the same time the Danube’s flow decreases due to climate change.

How to cite: Zessner, M., Liu, M., Kittlaus, S., and Zoboli, O.: Monitoring, modelling and management of persistent, mobile and toxic chemicals in the Danube River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5883, 2025.

EGU25-5915 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.7 | Highlight

Developing a Safe Operating Space framework for water resources in the Danube River basin 

Silvia Artuso, Emilio Politti, Sylvia Tramberend, Mikhail Smilovic, and Taher Kahil

The Danube River Basin, spanning 19 countries and covering 801,000 km², is the most international river basin in the world. This region faces diverse challenges related to water quantity, quality, groundwater management, and biodiversity, all of which are expected to intensify due to climate change. To address these challenges, a holistic and sustainable water management approach is needed—one that integrates environmental, social, and economic dimensions, ensures stakeholder involvement, and aligns with regulatory frameworks.

Building on the Planetary Boundaries framework, the concept of Safe Operating Space (SOS) has emerged in the last decades to assess sustainable resource use within the Earth’s carrying capacity while maintaining human well-being. Within the Horizon Europe SOS-Water project, we are working to define the SOS for water resources in four case study sites across Europe and beyond (Danube, Rhine, Jucar and Mekong basins) using integrated modeling, monitoring, advanced indicators, and an inclusive and iterative participatory approach that actively engages stakeholders to co-define visions, water values, and management options.

The resulting co-created SOS framework will inform the design of sustainable water management pathways that address current and future challenges. It aims to maximize the socio-economic and ecological value of water while promoting resilience and sustainability across the different river basins.

This proposed talk will showcase the application of the SOS framework to the Danube Basin, highlighting its capability to integrate all the different aspects of the water dimension with stakeholder engagement and co-development of management pathways. We will present the preliminary framework co-developed with stakeholders for the Danube Basin and provide insights into the how it can be used to inform sustainable water management practices and address the critical water challenges facing the Danube Basin and other transboundary regions worldwide.

How to cite: Artuso, S., Politti, E., Tramberend, S., Smilovic, M., and Kahil, T.: Developing a Safe Operating Space framework for water resources in the Danube River basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5915, 2025.

Riparian strips form a transition zone between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems providing essential ecosystem services. Healthy strips are crucial for the stability and sustainability of ecological systems. Riparian zones have major environmental importance because these could be interpreted as collision zones of transporting pollutants (on both surface and subsurface) from the land to the freshwater. According to that riparian zones have irreplaceable effect on sediment- and nutrient mitigation and securing freshwater ecosystem biodiversity.

Despite their vital importance, the research community paid less attention on riparian strips. Policy-level regulation of land use and related pollutant emissions within strips is also lacks. As a result, degradation of riparian habitats is still increasing.

In this study, we determined of a critical delineation distance of riparian strip with the fixed buffer strip approach. This was based on the analyses of almost 5000 computed local groundwater – surface water gradients in four counties of the Danube River Basin. We evaluated the actual and historic land use conditions within the derived riparian strips. To establish and understand the motivations and cause-effect relationship behind the land use arrangement, we examined the vegetation biomass production inside and outside the defined zone. In addition, to gain a more accurate understanding of the water balance processes of the riparian strips, we performed three types of trend analysis on the groundwater well time series.

Based on our results, the distance from the watercourse influenced the historical trends of groundwater wells. We highlighted in our results, that the proportion of agricultural areas exceeds national level ratios concerning natural land cover types within the riparian strips. For most countries of the Danube River Basin, the agricultural land use category shows up to almost 10% increase within the riparian strips compared to outer zones regarding a crop yield indicator. This means, that within the riparian strips, areas with significant potential for provisioning services are primarily exploited, to the detriment of regulating services. This revealed conflict is also an opportunity that affects the feasibility of several European Union strategies (Water Framework Directive, Biodiversity Strategy until 2030), by pointing out potential restoration sites.

How to cite: Decsi, B., Koncsos, L., and Kozma, Z.: Exploring hydrological- and environmental indicators with their coupled consequences on ecosystem services relationships for the riparian zones of Danube River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6007, 2025.

EGU25-6640 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

RIBASIM Danube: Modeling water allocation in the Danube Basin with a focus on low-flow conditions 

Tamara Graf, Martin Glas, Fatima Monji, Mario Klösch, Max Preiml, Judith ter Maat, Andrei Toma, Albert Scrieciu, and Helmut Habersack

Climate change is leading to alterations in low-flow conditions and droughts, while societal factors like urbanization are intensifying these challenges. This underscores the urgent need for a deeper understanding and more effective management of water shortages in the Danube main stream. Innovative modelling tools addressing water demand are able to assess the allocation between relevant demands including agriculture, industry, hydropower, ecology and navigation during low flow periods. The STARS4WATER project deals with the complex challenges faced by the transboundary Danube river basin. The study area encompasses 19 riparian countries, covering a total area of 801,463 km² with diverse topographic and climatic characteristics. Stakeholders actively participated in identifying drought and low flows as key issues for water management in the basin. The upper Danube is particularly influenced by glaciers and snow, which are significant for low flows during summer, and these dynamics are expected to change under future climate scenarios. Lower Danube is expected to face increased drought risk in combination with rising agricultural water demand. As a result, the River Basin Simulation (RIBASIM) model was initiated for the entire basin. The RIBASIM model, a node-link model for simulating and balancing water availability, allocation and use, was employed including the present state. Inflow nodes for sub-catchments representing the boundary conditions regarding water availability were determined using the wflow_sbm model, a grid-based rainfall-runoff model. Input data comprised discharges from defined sub-basins for the period 2010 to 2020 at a resolution of 10 days. On the demand side, the focus was on the Danube main stream, including water supply for cities, major industrial demands in Germany and Austria as well as nuclear power plants, and specific irrigation areas. Those are represented by water demand and water abstraction nodes. Critical low flow nodes, essential for minimum flow for navigation, were also identified. Explicit demands were collected from statistical authorities, non-governmental organizations, academic papers and established consensus. Simulated discharges, demands, supplied demands (i.e. water use), and shortages for the period 2010 to 2020, were verified by a plausibility check and sensitivity analysis. It serves as a starting point for future scenario-based analyses including e.g. the effect of glacier retreat and water allocation and use priority setting during low flows. The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive local water demand data collection river basin-wide and enhanced transboundary cooperation to tackle water management challenges in the Danube River basin, including adherence to national and EU-wide statistical standards considering water use and demand. In particular, data on water demand from industries and agriculture are essential to identify hotspots for shortages in the Danube during droughts and low flows more effectively. The finding is relevant for implementing future scenarios related to climate, hydrology, socio-economic factors, and water resource management. By better unlocking data availability and improving data resolution and incorporating future projections, more accurate and practical insights for managing water resources in the face of evolving environmental and societal pressures are achievable.

How to cite: Graf, T., Glas, M., Monji, F., Klösch, M., Preiml, M., ter Maat, J., Toma, A., Scrieciu, A., and Habersack, H.: RIBASIM Danube: Modeling water allocation in the Danube Basin with a focus on low-flow conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6640, 2025.

EGU25-6690 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Characteristics of historical extreme floods in the Danube and Main catchments in Austria and Germany compared to modern ones 

Miriam Bertola, Peter Valent, Jürgen Komma, and Günter Blöschl

Historical flood events occurred before the begin of systematic flow records, represent valuable information that should be considered in flood frequency analyses. However, in most cases historical data is still stored in printed volumes and therefore not easily accessible and ready-to-use for hydrological analyses. The aim of this study is to compare the largest historical floods in the Danube and Main catchments to modern (i.e. between 1950 and 2022) floods in terms of their spatial, temporal and causal carachteristics. Here we collect, digitize, and compile a dataset of the largest historical flood events in the Danube and Main catchment between 1845 and 1950. The newly developed dataset contains daily and peak discharge and water level measurements observed at several locations for 13 and 9 flood events in the two catchments. Flood hydrographs were also recovered at several locations in the Danube catchment. Using the developed dataset, we compare the characteristics of the historical flood events to the characterisitcs of modern large flood events. The findings show that the historical flood discharges are among the largest ever measured in the two catchments and that large floods occur more frequently in summer than in the past. In summary, this work reviews the spatial, temporal and causal characteristics of these very large historical events in comparison with recent events and discusses the implications for flood hazard assessment.

How to cite: Bertola, M., Valent, P., Komma, J., and Blöschl, G.: Characteristics of historical extreme floods in the Danube and Main catchments in Austria and Germany compared to modern ones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6690, 2025.

EGU25-8225 | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

VIIRS snow mapping accuracy at regional and catchment scale 

Patrik Sleziak, Michal Danko, Martin Jančo, Ladislav Holko, and Peter Valent

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product is well-suited for hydrological applications due to its reliable accuracy and daily accessibility. However, the MODIS snow product is anticipated to be replaced by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) snow cover product soon. Therefore, a thorough and accurate evaluation of this product is essential to ensure its suitability for future hydrological applications.

This study aims to assess the accuracy of the VIIRS snow product across Austria (observations at 631 climate stations) and within a small experimental catchment, the Jalovecký Creek catchment in northern Slovakia, using extensive snow course measurements conducted at both open and forested sites between January 2012 and August 2021. In the VIIRS snow cover product, the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) is used for snow detection. A threshold of NDSI (TNDSI) is needed for distinguishing snow from snow-free land. Based on the daily snow depth observations from climate stations/snow course locations, the best NDSI threshold (BTNDSI) is firstly determined through a detailed sensitivity test (100 different TNDSI from 0.01 to 1.0 with a step of 0.01). The overall accuracy (OA) of VIIRS data is then evaluated based on the BTNDSI and by comparison with the daily C6 MODIS snow cover dataset. The assessment of the BTNDSI/OA is performed for all climate stations/snow course locations, as well as for different groups of stations representing different physiographic and land cover conditions. The results will compare the seasonal and topographical variability of mapping accuracy and the mapping threshold. We will also compare the mapping accuracy at open and forested sites.

 

This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under Contract No. APVV-23-0332, the VEGA Grant Agency No. 2/0019/23, and the Danube Region Programme: DRP0200156 Danube Water Balance.

How to cite: Sleziak, P., Danko, M., Jančo, M., Holko, L., and Valent, P.: VIIRS snow mapping accuracy at regional and catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8225, 2025.

EGU25-8695 | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Machine learning applications in hydrogeology, the case study of Lithuanian soils' hydraulic conductivity 

Gintaras Žaržojus, Vytautas Samalavičius, Eveliina Kukka-Maaria Vanhala, Ieva Lekstutytė, Sonata Gadeikienė, and Saulius Gadeikis

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) opens new opportunities across various scientific disciplines, including hydrogeology. AI-based methods, particularly machine learning (ML), are increasingly utilized to address complex, non-linear relationships in hydrogeological data, offering improved accuracy and efficiency over traditional approaches. This study is the first attempt to apply AI techniques to assess hydrogeological parameters (hydraulic conductivity (k)) in Lithuanian soils, aiming to compare the accuracy of traditional empirical formulas (EFs) and modern computational approaches.

Hydraulic conductivity (k) is a critical parameter for evaluating soil permeability and water movement in porous media, which is widely used in hydrogeological modelling, contaminant transport, and geotechnical design. This research compares the predictive performance of six ML algorithms (Elastic Net, Gradient Boosting Regressor, Huber Regressor, K-Neighbors Regressor, Multi-Layer Perceptron Regressor, Random Forest Regressor) with empirical formulas using a dataset of 282 unique soil samples. Grain size distributions and particle diameters were used as features (input parameters) for ML models to predict k values.

Statistical metrics reveal that ML models significantly outperformed EFs, achieving r-squared of 0.36–0.46, compared to 0.10–0.33 for EFs. However, some ML models displayed signs of overfitting, and performance varied depending on input feature combinations, with optimal models requiring 4–8 parameters. The study also highlights the limited size and diversity of the dataset as a key constraint, underscoring the need for a more extensive and diverse soil database for robust ML model development.

This pioneering effort demonstrates the potential of AI to enhance and revise geological research in Lithuania, suggesting that ML can provide more accurate and scalable solutions for other hydrogeological and engineering geology problems.

How to cite: Žaržojus, G., Samalavičius, V., Vanhala, E. K.-M., Lekstutytė, I., Gadeikienė, S., and Gadeikis, S.: Machine learning applications in hydrogeology, the case study of Lithuanian soils' hydraulic conductivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8695, 2025.

Accurate water balance is important for both water resource management and nutrient emission modeling. This study compares the water balance results from the MONERIS (Modeling Nutrient Emissions in River Systems) model with those from WetSpass (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere under quasi-Steady State) and field-measured data in Hungary's Koppány basin, a 660 km² hilly catchment. MONERIS uses empirical equations of water balance components: precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and groundwater recharge. WetSpass adds spatially explicit hydrological and land-use information. The most characteristic features of the Koppány catchment are a high proportion of agricultural land, large-field arable farming of approximately 63% of the total area of the catchment and total agricultural lands of 72% of the total area of the catchment, and relatively low population density of approximately 29 inhabitants per square kilometer (inh./km²).  The Koppany catchment has a mean annual flow of approximately 1.26 m³/s. Water quality is seriously affected by eroding soil conditions within the catchment and severe point-source contamination by wastewater effluents: treated wastewater makes up approximately 8% of the total flow.

The present study furthers nutrient emission modeling through showing the relative strengths and weaknesses of lumped empirical and spatially distributed process-based techniques.

 

Keywords: Water Balance, MONERIS, WetSpass, Koppány Catchment , Nutrient Emission modeling

How to cite: Almohtaseb, F. and Kardos, M.: Comparative Assessment of Water Balance Calculations: MONERIS and WetSpass Models in the Koppány Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9132, 2025.

Groundwater is a critical resource that supports ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supply, yet its sustainable management faces challenges, particularly in the transboundary regions. Collaborative approaches are needed to protect this shared resource, as pollution or overexploitation in one country can have significant consequences across borders. The Estonian-Latvian transboundary area is a good example of these challenges, with its reliance on both unconfined Quaternary aquifers, essential for ecosystems and rural communities, and confined first bedrock aquifers, critical for centralized water systems.

This study develops a transboundary aquifer vulnerability assessment framework, integrating harmonized methodologies to evaluate natural vulnerability and pollution risk. The analysis uses the DRASTIC and modified DRASTIC index-based methods, combined with the DRASTIC-L approach, which incorporates land use data for a comprehensive evaluation of both natural and anthropogenic pressures. To improve the reliability of the assessment, pollutant travel time calculations were used to validate the findings.

The results show high variability in aquifer vulnerability across the study area. The unconfined Quaternary aquifer is most vulnerable in regions with sandy sediments, shallow groundwater tables, and high recharge rates. The confined bedrock aquifers are covered with protective sediment layers, but their vulnerability varies depending on sediment thickness and hydraulic conductivity. Notably, discrepancies between Estonian and Latvian geological data were uncovered, as large polygons of well-protected areas often terminate abruptly at the border, highlighting inconsistencies in geological data between Estonia and Latvia.

This framework emphasizes the importance of integrating natural vulnerability maps, pollution risk assessments, and harmonized methodologies developed for regional geological conditions. The study offers a scalable and adaptable solution for transboundary aquifer management by addressing data inconsistencies and fostering international cooperation.

Integrating these insights into transboundary water management strategies can greatly improve decision-making by providing a more comprehensive understanding of groundwater vulnerability and pollution risks. Additionally, it helps to make groundwater systems more resilient to future challenges like climate change, land use changes, and increasing water demand. Ultimately, this approach supports the sustainable use and protection of shared groundwater resources, ensuring their availability and quality for current and future generations.

How to cite: Männik, M., Bikše, J., and Karro, E.: Advancing harmonized groundwater vulnerability assessments for sustainable management in the Estonian-Latvian transboundary aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10445, 2025.

EGU25-11761 | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Lithuanian Karst Region Hydrogeology: Available Data and Future Research Prospects 

Vytautas Samalavičius, Gintaras Žaržojus, Assemzhan Kunsakova, and Jurga Arustienė

In Northern Lithuania, Biržai and Pasvalys districts, significant karst activity occurs due to gypsum-rich Devonian dolomite formation near the surface. Over time, water dissolves the gypsum, creating underground cavities that cause sinkholes when the ground collapses. The region has more than 11 thousand sinkholes, some densely clustered, with typical dimensions of 10–20 meters in diameter and 5 meters deep.

Groundwater level monitoring in Lithuania's karst regions was conducted in nine wells by the Lithuanian Geological Survey. Monitoring activities began as early as 1965 and have expanded over the decades, with newer installations starting in 2004. The monitored wells vary in depth, ranging from 10.7 to 46 meters in confined and unconfined aquifers.

In addition to water levels, the major ionic composition is analyzed in samples from all wells except Biržai MS (Well No. 35994), providing valuable data on groundwater chemistry and its interaction with karst processes.

Lithuania's karst region is located in a transboundary area shared with Latvia, making it a region of joint environmental and scientific interest. This area is currently a focus of the GRANDE-U (Groundwater Resilience Assessment through Integrated Data Exploration for Ukraine) project, which aims to enhance the understanding and management of groundwater through advanced techniques. One of the key aspects of this project is the modelling of groundwater parameters using machine learning (ML) algorithms, which are further complemented by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data.

Karst systems are hydrogeologically characterized by fractured structures that respond rapidly to groundwater level changes. This sensitivity makes them particularly suitable for observation using gravitational data, as fluctuations in groundwater levels can be detected through variations in the Earth's gravitational field. The transboundary nature of the Lithuanian and Latvian karst regions underscores the importance of collaborative efforts like GRANDE-U to ensure sustainable water management and protect the unique geological and hydrological characteristics of this area.

The GRANDE-U “Groundwater Resilience Assessment through Integrated Data Exploration for Ukraine” (No. 2409395) project unites researchers from six countries - the U.S., Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Vilnius University has received funding from the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT), agreement No. S-IMPRESSU-24-3.

How to cite: Samalavičius, V., Žaržojus, G., Kunsakova, A., and Arustienė, J.: Lithuanian Karst Region Hydrogeology: Available Data and Future Research Prospects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11761, 2025.

EGU25-12597 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.7

Implementation of a hysteretic depression model to assess future water availability in the St. Mary and Milk River transboundary basin 

Paul Coderre, Mohamed Ismaiel Ahmed, Kasra Keshavarz, and Alain Pietroniro

The St. Mary and Milk River (SMM) basin is an international transboundary watershed flowing between Canada and the United States. The basin is composed of 2 distinct headwater basins that flow into the Saskatchewan Nelson and Mississippi basin, respectively. A diversion constructed in 1909 conveys water from the higher-yielding St. Mary River into the lower-yielding Milk River. The 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty between the USA and Canada allowed for specific entitlements for each country, allowing for sharing of the combined basin resource between both countries. Lack of storage, conveyance and changing hydrological conditions in the basin have resulted in both countries receiving less than the treaty entitlement, prompting the International Joint Commission (IJC) to study the situation. This research addresses an important part of the IJC study which required implementing hydrological models to simulate natural flow in the SMM basin and understand the reliability of any solution under future climate. The HYPE hydrological model with the HDS module was implemented to model natural flow in the basin. HDS allowed for the explicit representation of the contributing area dynamics of prairie potholes which significantly impact the hydrology of the Milk River. The model was then used to run an ensemble of statistically downscaled future climate scenarios based on the CMIP6 models. Explicitly representing prairie potholes under future climate provided an opportunity to examine how non-contributing area might change in the future. We present an evaluation of historical model performance, a future climate analysis of streamflow in the basin, and the implications of the future climate conditions on apportionment practices in the basin. Results from this research will inform IJC decisions on future practices and infrastructure in this important transboundary basin and may add a new dimension to future practices as the effects of prairie potholes have never been explicitly considered.

How to cite: Coderre, P., Ahmed, M. I., Keshavarz, K., and Pietroniro, A.: Implementation of a hysteretic depression model to assess future water availability in the St. Mary and Milk River transboundary basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12597, 2025.

Understanding groundwater dynamics is crucial for assessing groundwater resilience and supporting water management, particularly in transboundary areas where shared aquifers are often evaluated only at a national level, overlooking the broader aquifer system and data from neighboring countries. Groundwater resilience—the ability of groundwater systems to recover from disturbances such as droughts—is a spatially variable trait influenced by a range of spatial-temporal factors that do not obey borders. This study investigates the spatial and hydrodynamic controls on groundwater dynamics within the Baltic region, focusing on the challenges posed by data discrepancies and monitoring network inconsistencies across Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. 

We utilized groundwater timeseries indices and the groundwater memory effect to investigate dominant patterns and their correlations with physiographic and climatic controls. Machine learning algorithms were used to explore spatial patterns with similar hydrodynamic characteristics. The analysis of national groundwater level data revealed monitoring gaps, particularly in transboundary aquifers, along with different national approaches in groundwater monitoring networks. These challenges complicate the comprehensive assessment of groundwater dynamics at a regional scale.

The results reveal that topographic, climatic and hydrological features are the most significant drivers of groundwater dynamics, followed by geological features. Groundwater indices and trends highlighted not only natural variability but also anthropogenic impacts on aquifer systems near large cities (e.g. Riga) and mining sites (e.g. Kohtla-Järve). We identify regions lacking monitoring wells and propose potential locations for new groundwater wells based on physiographic and hydrodynamic characteristics. 

This research is supported by the GRANDE-U “Groundwater Resilience Assessment through Integrated Data Exploration for Ukraine” (No. 2409395) project. 

How to cite: Bikše, J., Haaf, E., and Retike, I.: Groundwater dynamics across borders: data and monitoring network challenges in the Baltic countries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16367, 2025.

EGU25-16995 | ECS | Orals | HS2.1.7

 Evaluation of European Meteorological Observations gridded data  of air temperature and precipitation amount over Danube River Basin (1990-2022)  

Vlad Amihăesei, Sorin Cheval, Zenaida Chitu, Andrei Radu, Catalina Petre, Tamás Ács, Zsolt Kozma, Máté György, and Viorel Chendeș

Large-scale hydrological models simulate the water cycle for regions, countries, and continents. The choice of input data directly impacts the accuracy of these models' final output and the spatial and temporal pattern, as well as the quality of data (air temperature and precipitation), influences the quality and pattern of water availability estimates. It is essential to acknowledge that the accuracy of these estimates depends on the input quality of the data used.

In this regard, precipitation and air temperature gridded European Meteorological Observations (EMO1) datasets specifically used for hydrological modeling inputs (CWATM) are evaluated over the Danube River Basin (DRB). The observation data (air temperature and precipitation) from 9 different countries within the DRB are used for the EMO1’s evaluation.  The performance of the datasets was evaluated at daily, monthly, and annual scales, using Pearson Correlation (r), root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion.

The results showed the range of temperature differences varies between approximately -3°C and +2°C. This reflects both underestimations and overestimations by EMO1 compared to observations. The median differences are close to 0 for most months, indicating the EMO1 model is generally unbiased or well-calibrated overall. Larger variability and more outliers occur in warmer months (e.g., May–August), suggesting the model may struggle with accurately capturing summer temperature dynamics. For precipitation, the median is slightly positive, suggesting a systematic overestimation of precipitation during the summer months. This could be due to the model overestimating convective rainfall. 

By identifying the periods where the EMO-1 deviates most from observations, researchers can target specific processes for calibration or refinement, which is especially important for hydrological  applications

Acknowledgment 

This work was supported as part of DANUBE WATER BALANCE, an Interreg Danube Region Programme project co-funded by the European Union.

 

How to cite: Amihăesei, V., Cheval, S., Chitu, Z., Radu, A., Petre, C., Ács, T., Kozma, Z., György, M., and Chendeș, V.:  Evaluation of European Meteorological Observations gridded data  of air temperature and precipitation amount over Danube River Basin (1990-2022) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16995, 2025.

EGU25-17084 | Orals | HS2.1.7

Establishment of a data repository for hydrological and related data to support water balance modeling in the Danube basin 

Zsolt Kozma and the Danube Water Balance project data collection team

The Danube Water Balance project launched in 2024 in the frame of the Interreg Danube Region Programme with the aim to i) develop a harmonized hydrological modeling system enabling the analysis of present and future water balance of the Danube basin and to ii) improve data management among Danube countries for present and future water balance calculations. The latter is partially based on the establishment of a data repository for input data of the model. Besides global and regional open access data (e.g. digital elevation model, climate variables), national data are collected in order to i) provide direct input for the model, ii) validate global/regional data and iii) allow for the calibration and validation of the model. Thematically, the data cover environmental, hydrologic and water management, and socioeconomic information. Here, we present the procedure and the results of the collection of national data, starting from the identification of data types, desired quality and relevant resolution through the statistics of collected data to the outcomes of a preliminary data gap assessment. Spatial and temporal data coverage patterns by countries/regions are evaluated, taking into account the differences in environmental conditions and water management specificities. We also present the future steps planned in the project towards a harmonized basin-wide database.

This work/paper was supported as part of DANUBE WATER BALANCE, an Interreg Danube Region Programme project co-funded by the European Union.

How to cite: Kozma, Z. and the Danube Water Balance project data collection team: Establishment of a data repository for hydrological and related data to support water balance modeling in the Danube basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17084, 2025.

EGU25-18248 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Innovative Hydrological Modeling for Groundwater Level Projections in the Carpathian Basin 

Gábor Murányi and László Koncsos

This study focused on developing an aggregated hydrological model that is robust, computationally efficient, and capable of accurately describing groundwater resource dynamics. The model is based on the Kovács retention curve and incorporates evaporation using the low-data-demand Dunay–Varga-Haszonits method while accounting for the impact of regional subsurface flow systems. A central hypothesis of the study posits that the infiltration of precipitation into groundwater can be effectively modeled using longer, aggregated time steps (14 days in this case), by describing average changes within each time step without requiring detailed vertical profiles. Furthermore, we hypothesized that the aggregated average soil moisture, which influences evapotranspiration, can be accurately described based on the equilibrium retention curve adjusted to groundwater levels, using the average groundwater position during the aggregated interval.


The developed model enables nationwide analyses involving data from hundreds of monitoring wells, providing acceptable computational speed and accuracy. The study area was the Great Hungarian Plain, a region highly vulnerable to groundwater fluctuations due to its agricultural significance. The analysis was based on the FORESEE meteorological database, which integrates the results of several climate models covering the period 1960-2100. Future groundwater level changes under different climate scenarios were effectively analyzed. Simulations were conducted for more than 400 monitoring wells, resulting in projected trends for groundwater level changes. The findings indicate significant adverse changes in groundwater levels by 2050 under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model represents a valuable tool for sustainable water resource management and for assessing the impacts of climate change on groundwater levels.


Project no. TKP-6-6/PALY-2021 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the TKP2021-NVA funding scheme. The research presented in this abstract was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.

How to cite: Murányi, G. and Koncsos, L.: Innovative Hydrological Modeling for Groundwater Level Projections in the Carpathian Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18248, 2025.

EGU25-18525 | Orals | HS2.1.7

Hydrological simulation of Danube River discharge over the last 150 years and future projections with CMIP6 until 2100 

Harald Kling, Philipp Stanzel, Fabio Lerche, and Albert Ossó

The Upper Danube Basin upstream of Vienna, which can be regarded as the water tower of the Danube region, has a long history of human influence on river flow, from land use changes to hydropower development and today’s anthropogenic climate change. At the same time, the civilizing activities in the basin also have included the collection of scientific data, leading to remarkably long and reliable observational hydro-meteorological time series by Swiss, German and Austrian hydro-meteorological services and authorities.

Based on these observational data sets, this contribution presents exceptionally long hydrological simulations for the Upper Danube Basin, spanning from the time of the industrial revolution (1870) to the record-breaking hot years of the last decade (until 2023). An existing, well-established model for the Danube basin (Kling et al., 2012, Stanzel and Kling, 2018) was re-applied, but with new input data sets and new parameterization. This long simulation time-series (1870-2023) allows a rigorous testing of the hydrological model’s capabilities to adequately simulate non-stationary conditions, by evaluating different periods with specific characteristics and the representation of slow changes and long-term trends. The simulations facilitate the analysis of complex changes in the water balance and the impact on river discharge, both in the past and in the future.

In the framework of the climate change impact research project STREAM (Storylines of Danube Streamflow), the hydrological model of the Upper Danube will be applied to simulate future Danube discharge conditions based on the latest CMIP6 climate model projections.

 

References:

Kling H, Fuchs M, Paulin M. 2012. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology Vol. 424-425, p. 264-277

Stanzel P, Kling H. 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. Journal of Hydrology Vol. 563, p. 987-999

How to cite: Kling, H., Stanzel, P., Lerche, F., and Ossó, A.: Hydrological simulation of Danube River discharge over the last 150 years and future projections with CMIP6 until 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18525, 2025.

Beside common pollutants, such as organic material and nutrients, an ever-widening list of chemicals also put pressure on the quality of our rivers, lakes and the health of the prestigious ecosystems living within them. An investigative work to understand the main sources and pollution pathways of these chemicals is an important task ahead of us. A series of large-scale studies have been undertaken with the cooperation of experts from almost all Danube countries to build a hazardous substance inventory in the first step and then to build an emission model based on this inventory. The inventory has been built within the frames of the Danube Hazard mᶾc InterReg project, the model building is currently ongoing within the frames of the Tethys InterReg project. Three chemical groups are investigated by applying the MoRE (“modelling of Regional Emissions”) model for the Danube River Basin (DRB) represented by key elements and compounds: the group of potentially toxic elements is represented by 6 heavy metals and arsenic, industrial chemicals are represented by the two most common per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), PFOS and PFOA, and human pharmaceuticals are represented by a pain killer (diclofenac) and a psychoactive drug (carbamazepine). Each of these substances are ubiquitous in the environment but linked to different sources and pathways. While the source of pharmaceuticals is fairly well known, the estimation method for their emissions is challenging if one needs to reflect regional differences of it or to account for the effects of the type of sewage treatments applied in the treatment plants. Heavy metals are abundant in soils all over the DRB, while the uncertainties of the emissions from operating and abandoned mining facilities are also key to be addressed if hot spots to be identified. The most difficult, however, is the regionalisation of PFAS substances as beside emissions from point sources and urban runoff, they appear in atmospheric deposition all over the basin and in groundwater around known and potential hot-spots, meanwhile the actual emissions from point sources are also much less documented. A key step to upgrade our inventories for the model is that the emission from industrial facilities to air and water are described in detail as far as data from national and international databases, literature or BAT documents is available. Knowledge gap is indicated by the amount of plants with known discharge (162) compared to all the industrial facility in the DRB (6258 facility identified in the Industrial Emission Directive database). For the most uncertain emission sources and pathways, the study aims an order of magnitude estimation for all the potential estimation sources. Hence, for example tile drain pathway has been introduced for chemicals present in soils, despite the lack of sufficient concentration data in effluents. The estimation of groundwater concentration is not only difficult for diffuse sources but also for hot spots, which may be known only by literature information. The latter (literature values) is applied for landfill sites, which are treated as legacy hot spots for PFAS substances and pharmaceuticals.

How to cite: Jolánkai, Z., Kardos, M. K., Dudas, K., Potó, V., and Clement, A.: Building a transboundary hazardous substance emission model for the Danube River Basin. Overview of the key challenges of data availability, data uncertainty, knowledge gaps of substance behaviour, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20798, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20798, 2025.

EGU25-21853 | Posters on site | HS2.1.7

Hazardous Substance Load Estimation in a Small Catchment Using  Baseflow Separation and Composite Sampling 

Tímea Lajkó, Adrienne Clement, and Máté Krisztián Kardos

The pollution of our natural waters is an increasingly urgent and crucial problem.Both point and diffuse pollution can enter the river basin from a variety of sources.The streamflow - and the resulting pollutant loads - exhibit abrupt changes in behavior influenced by rainfall and surface run-off.A significant portion of the  pollution is associated with short-duration event flows, which cause sudden, substantial increases in streamflow. The primary objective of my thesis is to refine the load estimation method using baseflow separation methods, specifically the Lyne-Hollick (L-H.) and Eckhardt methods. The methods were applied at two measuring stations of the Koppány stream in Somogy County, Törökkoppány and Tamási.

In addition to hourly water flow measurements, electrical conductivity and turbidity are continuously monitored in the area at five-minute intervals. A permanent point source of pollution is the treated wastewater of Balatonlelle, which is discharged into the Koppány stream as a contribution to the baseflow load. The calculation process benefited significantly from the stratified sampling method used, in which an automatic sampler is activated at a defined water flow threshold. This enables separate treatment of samples from baseflow and high flow, allowing better estimations of contaminant concentrations during high flow conditions and providing a more accurate load estimation.

The estimated baseflow-index for Törökkoppány is 0.60 (L-H.) and 0.57 (Eckhardt) while for Tamási, it is 0.86 (L-H.) and 0.57 (Eckhardt). In terms of micropollutants, metals and pesticides dominate the mass for both methods, associated with high flow events.Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals, phenols, and PFAS compounds, linked to anthropogenic sources, are more prominent in the baseflow load. Based on the L-H. filter, Törökkoppány receives 91.7% of its annual 4634 kg metal compound load during high flow events. The total pesticide load is 87 kg per year, with 98% attributed to high flow events. Results from the Eckhardt filter align closely with the aforementioned findings. Based on the L-H. method at Tamási, the estimated annual metal load is 3488 kg, with 62% from high water events. while the Eckhardt method reports an annual metal load of 7408 kg (88% from high flow). Total pesticide emissions are 63kg/year (L-H.), predominantly from high flow (88%), and 171 kg (Eckhardt) with 97% attributed to high flow.  Phenols, PAH and PFAS compounds are baseflow-related and do not exceed 1-2kg/year.

To understand why the two methods show such different results for Tamási, the Rimmer-Hartmann method could be an appropriate solution.

Funding: The research presented in the article was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00008 project. The research was co-financed by the National Research Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) through the OTKA Grant SNN 143868 and by the European Union through the RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00004 Artifical Intelligence National Laboratory project.

How to cite: Lajkó, T., Clement, A., and Kardos, M. K.: Hazardous Substance Load Estimation in a Small Catchment Using  Baseflow Separation and Composite Sampling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21853, 2025.

HS2.2 – From observations to concepts to models (in catchment hydrology)

EGU25-10 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Enhancing physically based and distributed hydrological model calibration through internal state variable constraints 

Frédéric Talbot, Jean-Daniel Sylvain, Guillaume Drolet, Annie Poulin, and Richard Arsenault

Hydrological models often struggle to accurately represent subsurface processes, which are crucial for understanding groundwater dynamics and recharge, particularly in snow-dominated catchments. Traditional calibration methods, primarily focused on streamflow, can produce models that perform well for discharge prediction but inadequately capture internal hydrological processes such as groundwater recharge, baseflow, and soil moisture. This study explores how incorporating internal state variables into the calibration process can improve model realism and better reflect the complex interactions within the hydrological cycle.

Using the physically based Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), we implement and compare three model configurations across 34 catchments in southern Quebec, a region characterized by diverse hydrological conditions and significant seasonal snowmelt. The first configuration (Baseline, BL) employs a conventional calibration approach, focusing on streamflow while relying on conceptual methods to simulate groundwater flow. In the second configuration (Groundwater, GW), we enable the groundwater module, which uses physically based equations to model subsurface processes. The third configuration (Groundwater with Recharge Calibration, GW-RC) further refines the model by incorporating groundwater recharge as a constraint in the calibration process.

Our results show that while the BL and GW configurations achieve high Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) scores for streamflow predictions, they underperform in representing other critical hydrological processes, such as groundwater recharge and baseflow variability. The GW-RC configuration, despite a modest reduction in streamflow performance, significantly improves the representation of subsurface processes, particularly during snowmelt periods. This enhancement is achieved by including internal state variables such as recharge in the objective function during calibration. As a result, GW-RC offers a more comprehensive understanding of watershed dynamics and provides insights that are crucial for water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.

The study highlights the value of multi-variable calibration frameworks, which move beyond streamflow optimization to incorporate additional hydrological data. Such frameworks offer a more accurate depiction of watershed processes, especially in the context of climate change. The GW-RC approach demonstrates that even small adjustments in the calibration process, such as the inclusion of recharge as a constraint, can lead to substantial improvements in model realism without sacrificing overall model stability.

The results underscore the importance of developing robust hydrological models capable of simulating both surface and subsurface processes, which are essential for adapting to future hydrological shifts. This study provides a framework for improving hydrological model calibration and offers valuable contributions to the fields of water resource management and climate adaptation.

How to cite: Talbot, F., Sylvain, J.-D., Drolet, G., Poulin, A., and Arsenault, R.: Enhancing physically based and distributed hydrological model calibration through internal state variable constraints, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10, 2025.

EGU25-562 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Simulating the impact of medicane “Daniel” in an urban catchment using a 2D integrated flood simulator   

Stefanos Vagenas, Aggeliki Gkouma, Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, and Vasilis Bellos

The medicane Daniel occurred in early September of 2023 and hit several countries of the Mediterranean area with catastrophic consequences and thousands of fatalities. Specifically in Greece, the event can be divided in two phases: a) the flash floods observed mainly in the catchments near Volos city and b) the fluvial flooding of Pineios river after two days due to the levee failures in several points, which were stressed due to the increasing water stage of the river. In this work, we focus only on the first part of the event, simulating the flood impact in the catchment which drains through Volos city and has an area of 33.5 km2. We used the physics-based 2D integrated flood simulator SERGHEI in a High-Performance Computing environment, since the simulation is characterized by increased computational burden. For the rainfall, we used two sources of meteorological data: a) a satellite-based ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); b) a synthetic rainfall based on the statistical processing of the data recorded at the meteorological stations of the Hellenic Integrated Marine Inland water Observing, Forecasting and offshore Technology System (HIMIOFoTS), coupled with the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves of Greece. In order to perform a plausible check regarding the modelling efficiency, crowd-sourced information is collected from social media and compared with the SERGHEI outcome.

How to cite: Vagenas, S., Gkouma, A., Caviedes-Voullième, D., and Bellos, V.: Simulating the impact of medicane “Daniel” in an urban catchment using a 2D integrated flood simulator  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-562, 2025.

EGU25-701 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Understanding and managing impacts of solar farms on landscape hydrology: insights from field monitoring and modeling  

Rouhangiz Yavari Bajehbaj, Lauren McPhillips, Cibin Raj, and Arash Massoudieh

The rapid growth of large-scale ground-mounted photovoltaic solar panel installations, commonly known as 'solar farms,' has raised concerns about their impact on hydrologic processes and the need for appropriate management practices. Literature review shows a lack of comprehensive field and modeling research on the hydrological impacts of solar farms, and guidance for stormwater management on solar farms varies substantially across the region and US.  We have conducted Modeling and field investigation on soil moisture patterns, runoff generation, and solar radiation at two solar farms in central Pennsylvania, USA that are representative of the complex terrain in the region (e.g., high or variable slopes). Soil moisture monitoring and vegetation surveying has occurred at several key locations relative to the panels. Solar radiation has been collected under the panels to understand changes in evapotranspiration. Both solar farms included engineered infiltration basins or trenches, which were instrumented with water level or soil moisture sensors, allowing us to understand the efficacy of these structural stormwater management features in managing runoff in these sites. We have also developed a modelling framework to represent the unique hydrology of solar farms. We are leveraging a freely available, new tool called OpenHydroQual, since this model allows us to represent unsaturated flow in soil. The observed soil moisture data from the solar farm has been used for calibration and validation of the model at one solar farm site.  Additional scenarios are in progress to evaluate changes in runoff compared to pre-development conditions, along with selected design storm scenarios, and selected land management scenarios. 

How to cite: Yavari Bajehbaj, R., McPhillips, L., Raj, C., and Massoudieh, A.: Understanding and managing impacts of solar farms on landscape hydrology: insights from field monitoring and modeling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-701, 2025.

EGU25-1371 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Multivariate calibration can increase simulated discharge uncertainty 

Sandra Pool, Keirnan Fowler, Hansini Gardiya Weligamage, and Murray Peel

Hydrological models are typically calibrated against discharge data. However, the resulting parameterization does not necessarily lead to a realistic representation of other simulated variables, such as actual evapotranspiration, soil water storage, or total water storage. Since a variety of hydrological variables are now freely available globally, multivariate model calibration has become a popular method to overcome the aforementioned limitation of a discharge-based calibration. Given the improved process representation after multivariate calibration, it seems reasonable to expect that such a calibration also leads to reduced hydrograph uncertainty, associated with more constrained flux maps (i.e., combinations of streamflow generation mechanisms). However, this expectation assumes that an intersection exists within the parameter space between the separate behavioural clouds of the two or more variables considered in multivariate calibration. Here, we tested this assumption in twelve Australian catchments located in five different climate zones. We calibrated the SIMHYD model using a Monte Carlo-based approach in which an initially large sample of parameter sets was constrained using discharge only, actual evapotranspiration only, and a combination of both variables (combined into a single objective function). As could be expected, considering both variables in model calibration resulted in the best overall model performance in all catchments. However, adding actual evapotranspiration to a discharge-based calibration caused hydrograph uncertainty to increase for 11 of the 12 study sites, whereby increases tended to be larger for low flows than high flows. Similarly, flux map areas increased on average by 27% as a result of less constrained streamflow generation mechanisms under multivariate calibration relative to univariate calibration. Analysis of behavioural parameter sets suggests that these symptoms could be caused by non-overlapping behavioural parameter distributions among the different variables. By separately considering both locally observed and remote sensing-based evapotranspiration in the analysis, we could demonstrate that the source of the information did not affect our findings. This has implications both for model parameterization and model selection, emphasising that the value of non-discharge data for improving process representation through calibration is contingent on the suitability of the model structure.

How to cite: Pool, S., Fowler, K., Gardiya Weligamage, H., and Peel, M.: Multivariate calibration can increase simulated discharge uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1371, 2025.

EGU25-1916 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Dynamic Combination of a Multi-Model Ensemble for Improved Streamflow Simulations 

Cyril Thébault, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Nans Addor, and Martyn P. Clark

Accurate streamflow simulations are needed to manage water resources, evaluate flooding risks, and support agriculture and industry. Traditional ensemble approaches are usually based on meteorological ensemble but rarely consider hydrological ensemble. However, hydrological forecasts based on a single model often fail to capture the dynamic nature of hydrological systems. Addressing this gap, we present a novel dynamic combination method that adaptively leverages hydrological ensemble diversity to enhance streamflow simulations.

Using the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we generated 78 hydrological models applied to 559 catchments from the CAMELS dataset across the contiguous United States. Each model was calibrated to optimize both high-flow and low-flow performance, producing a hydrological ensemble of 156 members per catchment. Our dynamic combination approach can be divided in two parts: a conceptual k-nearest neighbor algorithm to identify similar historical conditions and then model predictions at the time step of interest are weighted based on their performance for the k-nearest neighbors.

Results demonstrate that this dynamic combination approach improves upon traditional static methods, particularly in representing diverse streamflow conditions. The method captures temporal variability, reduces trade-offs among objective functions, and provides a model-agnostic framework for enhanced streamflow simulations. While the approach shows promising results, it faces limitations in its reliance on hydrological ensemble and meteorological data quality. Future work could explore machine learning integration for dynamic combination and applications to real-time forecasting and ungauged catchments.

How to cite: Thébault, C., Knoben, W. J. M., Addor, N., and Clark, M. P.: Dynamic Combination of a Multi-Model Ensemble for Improved Streamflow Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1916, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1916, 2025.

EGU25-2278 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

A remote sensing cloud-assisted pipeline to estimate river stream power at catchment scale 

Miguel Vallejo and Carmelo Juez

Descriptive historical cartography of river morpho-dynamics is crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change, the evolution of river catchment land use and land cover and the degree of human influence on river systems.  
Beyond studying specific river sections, analysing fluvial dynamics at large spatio-temporal scales, such as national or continental water basins (i.e., Atlantic, Mediterranean) over a 20 year-period, presents numerous limitations and challenges. These include issues in hydrological and geomorphological calculation procedures, as well as data availability. 
A key metric for understanding river dynamics and their temporal evolution is the stream power, which is essentially the energy exerted by water flow on different parts of the riverbed (i.e., banks and bottom). The calculation inputs, along with water density and recorded discharge, include the slope and wetted channel width. These latest two inputs are essential due to the challenges in accurately extracting riverbed elevation data and measuring wetted channel width along the entire river length. These challenges arise from factors such as vegetation coverage masking the river and the limitations in the spatial resolution of worldwide satellite-borne remote sensing products used for historical studies (e.g., Landsat products). To address these problems, we developed an automated and cloud-based methodology, that follows the next steps:

i)    To implement a cloud-computed procedure using Google Earth Engine to process historical data in large areas, such as trends in vegetation indices and frequency of floods;

ii)    To treat wetted channel width as a variable subject to random errors and outliers, but model it as a function of more reliably measurable variables (e.g., surrounding vegetation, flood frequency, slope, transverse channelling and discharge return period) to estimate it in non-measurable river sections;

iii)    To perform a series of filtering operations on the input data, such as the RANSAC algorithm, to minimize outliers and eliminate topological inconsistencies in height and derived slope of the riverbed; 

iv)    To compute error propagation in the calculation of stream power, considering the significant sources of error in the river longitudinal slope and wetted channel width variables, as well as the longitudinal variability of stream power, both as indicators of the calculation reliability.

In the final phase, we examine the correlation and potential causality between the stream flow results and socio-environmental aspects of the study areas (e.g., number of cities, population, land use) to broadly understand the patterns that may influence its spatiotemporal variability.
The proposed cloud-assisted pipeline enables the analysis of large-scale river systems, accounting for their temporal evolution and providing an initial estimate of stream power with an associated confidence index. This method advances previous global studies. It automatically generates essential data for river basin management, assesses the level of human impact on river systems, and facilitates comparisons across different hydrographic regions.

 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This work is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) through the Horizon Europe 2021 Starting Grant program under REA grant agreement number 101039181 - SEDAHEAD.

How to cite: Vallejo, M. and Juez, C.: A remote sensing cloud-assisted pipeline to estimate river stream power at catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2278, 2025.

EGU25-2769 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Hydrological simulation applying global meteorological datasets and terrain elevations to local-scale snowy basins in Japan 

Kazumasa Fujimura, Yoshihiko Iseri, and Aki Yanagawa

Although regional water resources issues need to be solved using hydrological models that can accurately reproduce phenomena, difficulties exist in many regions and countries owing to the lack of quantitative observed data and computers. In this case, global metrological datasets and terrain elevations are available for analying hydrological processes in such ungauged basins. When using a regional model in hydrological analysis, the forced use of global datasets requires usually assimilation and bias correction, most often with high computational cost. Since the accuracy of global datasets has been improving in recent years, a global dataset was dared to be applied in local-scale hydrological analysis without bias correction in this study. The result is compared with that of hydrological analysis using a ground dataset.

The hydrological model consisting of the Diskin–Nazimov infiltration model and the storage–discharge relationships developed for mountainous basins (Fujimura et al., 2011) was used in this study because of its simple structure that uses small datasets that accurately estimate runoff phenomena at the local scale, which can help solve the regional water issues in water resource management or flood control design. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q) are used in this study as global metrological datasets for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain DEM (MERIT DEM) provided by Yamazaki et al. (2017) is used as the global digital elevation model. The hydrological analysis is carried out for a period of 21 years at daily time steps for four snowy mountainous basins with areas from 103 to 331 km2 in the Hokkaido region of Japan, using both the global dataset and the gauge-based dataset. Each simulation was assessed using the average daily runoff relative error (ADRE).

The results show that, when using the ground-based dataset, the ADRE range is from 26.6% to 47.2% and the average is 35.5%, and when using the global dataset it is from 44.0% to 76.7% and the average is 60.4%. The use of a global dataset reduces the accuracy of the analysis, but not considerably.

How to cite: Fujimura, K., Iseri, Y., and Yanagawa, A.: Hydrological simulation applying global meteorological datasets and terrain elevations to local-scale snowy basins in Japan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2769, 2025.

EGU25-3572 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

From perceptualisation to modelling: Improving the representation of spatially variable intercatchment groundwater flow in hydrological models 

Louisa Oldham, Gemma Coxon, Nicholas Howden, Christopher Jackson, John Bloomfield, and Jim Freer

Lumped and semi-distributed hydrological models commonly do not include representation of intercatchment groundwater flow (IGF) fluxes. However, IGF can be a significant component of a catchment’s water balance and have important water resources implications for rivers. In models that have added a water flux to represent IGF, developments have often been made with limited prior justification based on any evidence of perceived subsurface processes. Here, we follow a perceptualisation pathway, underlined by increasing levels of hydrogeological knowledge, to showcase model structure changes to the DECIPHeR hydrological model to incorporate IGF fluxes. The River Kennet, UK (a tributary of the River Thames), was selected as our test catchment. A perceptual model was first developed, utilising available national data on meteorology, hydrogeology and geology, and reviewing water balance calculations and statistics. Four model structural development scenarios were then selected to provide increasing spatial variability in IGF, whereby IGF is modelled with disconnected, semi-routed, or fully routed connectivity between sub-catchments. We demonstrate the decisions that could be taken by a modeller in the incorporation of IGF fluxes to existing models, given an increasing level of hydrogeological perceptualisation. The inclusion of this missing flux in the DECIPHeR model improves calibrations in heavily groundwater dominated sub-catchments. We also show, however, how a lack of prior hydrogeological perceptualisation could lead to a model structure selection that is at odds with the physical reality of the catchment, whereby modelled IGF losses/gains could readily be used as a proxy for other calibration issues e.g. input data errors etc. Discussion is provided on the balance between improved calibration and realism, the importance of transparent and justifiable structural decisions, and the uncertainties associated with this. The perceptual model and the modelling results also highlight the potential of seasonal variations in IGF flux, which necessitates further investigation.

How to cite: Oldham, L., Coxon, G., Howden, N., Jackson, C., Bloomfield, J., and Freer, J.: From perceptualisation to modelling: Improving the representation of spatially variable intercatchment groundwater flow in hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3572, 2025.

This work presents two country-wide datasets for Mexico: (1) Mexico's High Resolution Climate Database (MexHiResClimDB) and (2) Mexico's watershed database (MexWatDB). The MexHiResClimDB is a long-term (1951-2020) climate database at a spatial resolution of approximately 600 metres (that comprises daily minimum, average and maximum temperature as well as precipitation), while the MexWatDB is a new watershed classification for Mexico based on the Pfafstetter classification system. This new classification system is proposed because the currently used watershed classification in Mexico was developed in the 1950s (and is based on letters without a logical sequence, i.e. no upstream or downstream criteria was used for its coding). The MexWatDB consists of three nested watershed levels: the first division (L1) comprises 359 watersheds, while L2 has 1980 watersheds and L3 a total of 6262 hierarchically ordered watersheds (whereas the currently used scheme has a total of 976). While the MexHiresClimDB comprises daily, monthly and yearly rasters of Tmin, Tavg, Tmax and Precip (with their corresponding normals for the 1951-1980, 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 periods), the MexWatDB includes the aforementioned variables with the previously mentioned temporal aggregation on a watershed basis for each division level (i.e, L1, L2 and L3). An adequate watershed classification and a high resolution climate database is needed in Mexico, because daily precipitation can vary from 0 to more than 300 mm per day (or more than fivefold on a monthly basis for adjacent watersheds). These two new databases will be helpful to develop hydrological models from regional to local scales and to quantify the spatial variability of climate change in Mexico.

How to cite: Carrera-Hernandez, J. J.: The MexHiResClimDB and the MexWatDB: Two new country-wide databases in Mexico to improve hydrological modelling from regional to local scales., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4925, 2025.

EGU25-5505 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Runoff Simulation in Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) Using the Improved HBV-PML Model with Evapotranspiration Constraints 

Haoshan Wei, Yongqiang Zhang, and Changming Liu

Actual evapotranspiration (AET) estimates are crucial for hydrological processes, especially in Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB). However, traditional hydrological models often struggle to provide reliable ET values, which limits their performance in regions with sparse observational data. To address this, we integrate evapotranspiration constraints derived from the PML-V2 model, calibrated using flux tower data, into the improved HBV hydrological model (HBV-PML). This approach allows HBV to replicate ET estimates from PML-V2 model, ensuring the two models fully coupled. We applied the HBV-PML model to 4641 small catchments distributed globally, using a basin attribute similarity method to transfer parameters from 10 similar basins for each target basin. Ensemble results from 10 parameter sets showed that the runoff simulations from improved HBV-PML were slightly lower than those from the original HBV model, but both models achieved a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.6 for monthly runoff and greater than 0.35 for daily runoff. This is remarkable for HBV-PML since its ET output was identical to that of PML-V2. Our work demonstrates the potential of incorporating more accurate ET values into hydrological models, achieving reliable runoff simulations while dramatically improving the accuracy of evapotranspiration estimates.

How to cite: Wei, H., Zhang, Y., and Liu, C.: Runoff Simulation in Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) Using the Improved HBV-PML Model with Evapotranspiration Constraints, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5505, 2025.

EGU25-5976 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Regionalizing prior parameter ranges for rainfall-runoff models 

Deva Charan Jarajapu, Till Francke, and Thorsten Wagener

Rainfall-runoff models are often calibrated by defining feasible parameter ranges and constraining them with streamflow data, and occasionally other hydrological variables. Traditionally, global prior ranges have served as a baseline, containing a wide range of parameter values suitable for various catchment types. However, there might be more information available to reduce a priori parameter uncertainty in a structured way. This study addresses this gap by defining plausible prior parameter ranges based on the distribution of identifiable parameters and their relationship to catchment characteristics. Using a version of the conceptual Probability Distributed Moisture (PDM) model, the study focuses on a large sample of catchments in the United States, covering diverse climatic, land cover, geological, and landscape types. Thus, investigating the effects of these physical and climatic properties on parameter prior ranges. The combination of automatic grouping and catchment attributes resulted in significant reductions in parameter space, with high average predictive accuracies for traditional efficiency measures. Surprisingly, we find distinct and spatially coherent regions within the US where specific prior parameter ranges maintain high levels of performance. More than 75% of the catchments show NSE values above 0.6 and KGE values above 0.7. Our results suggest that regionalizing prior parameter ranges can significantly reduce parameter uncertainty. These findings have significant implications for the prediction of hydrological responses in ungauged catchments.

How to cite: Jarajapu, D. C., Francke, T., and Wagener, T.: Regionalizing prior parameter ranges for rainfall-runoff models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5976, 2025.

EGU25-6402 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Equifinality in calibration of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model Parameters  

Bhavana Dwivedi, Saumyen Guha, and Shivam Tripathi

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a large-scale, semi-distributed hydrologic model that operates at grid cell level. An effective application of VIC model requires proper model calibration. The total set of parameters from the two models (VIC and routing model) can be quite large but out of these parameters four soil parameters namely, exponent of soil moisture capacity curve (binfil), maximum velocity of base flow that occurs from the lowest soil layer (Dm), the fraction of Dm where non-linear baseflow occurs (Ds), and fraction of maximum soil moisture where non-linear baseflow occurs (Ws) were considered as these parameters cannot be estimated based on the available soil information. The present study attempts to model the hydrology of two synthetic and one real catchment, Ashti Catchment (sub catchment of Godavari River basin in India) using the VIC two soil layer model. The model was set in water balance mode at 0.25×0.25° spatial resolution with a daily time step. The calibration was carried out using Genetic Algorithm (GA) for six objective functions, Root mean square of error (RMSE), Maximum absolute relative error (MAXARE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Maximum absolute error (MAX_AE), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). 

Out of six objective functions, MAXARE in simulated discharge was found to be the best objective function for VIC when compared with other objective functions based on how close the generated parameter values were to the true values and the amount of computational time taken. Throughout the calibration, the GA parameters were kept as - solution per population: 32, num of parent mating: 2, mutation type: random, mutation probability: 0.09, crossover type: uniform, and crossover probability: 0.7. The overall result of calibration for both synthetic and real catchments for twenty years of discharge data (1971-1990) indicated that the simulated discharge was more sensitive to parameter binfil as compared to Dm, Ds and Ws. Individually, parameters Ds and Dm showed an insensitivity to the GA parameters up to three hundred generations. Further, out of seventeen set of initial values of binfil, Ds, Dm, and Ws, five sets provide different final parameter values after calibration but same calibration results in terms of MAXARE = 2.037%, NSE = 1.0, Coefficient of correlation = 0.999 Coefficient of determination = 0.998 and RMSE = 4.812 cumec. This indicated the presence of equifinality—where multiple parameters set produced similar model outputs. This study offers a foundation for further refining calibration approaches to address equifinality and improve model robustness.

Keywords: Hydrological modeling, VIC, Genetic algorithm, Equifinality, optimization

How to cite: Dwivedi, B., Guha, S., and Tripathi, S.: Equifinality in calibration of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model Parameters , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6402, 2025.

Remote sensing data are crucial for informing earth science models with key hydrological variable, such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, or terrestrial water storage. However, gaps in historical data, especially pre-2000, hinder long-term hydrological modelling efforts. To address this, we propose a novel method to generate synthetic data, bridging temporal gaps and extending existing datasets for water resource modelling and climate impact studies.

Unlike existing approaches that resample and interpolate historical data as cohesive wholes, the proposed method adopts a pixel-wise perspective. Each pixel’s associated climate time series are analysed independently using a k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN) algorithm paired with a process-specific similarity metric. This allows the identification of pixel-specific analogues based on climate reanalysis data. The selected pixel-wise analogues are then combined to create “compound synthetic images,” preserving spatial and temporal heterogeneity often lost when using a domain-wise approach.

To enhance variability and assess uncertainty, the proposed method integrates stochastic sampling within the analogue selection process. This generates ensembles of synthetic data, enabling quantification of pixel-level uncertainty on any given day.

The proposed approach is tested in the Volta River Basin, a West-African region with strong climate variability and affected by data scarcity. The synthetic data are applied to a spatially distributed hydrological model and evaluated based on their ability to reproduce observed streamflow patterns. Additionally, the model is calibrated separately with real and synthetic data, and the resulting evapotranspiration outputs are compared to assess their closeness.

Preliminary results show that the hydrological model performs equally well in terms of streamflow and evapotranspiration when using either real or synthetic data. This demonstrates the reliability of the synthetic data generation and its suitability for modelling unobserved processes.

How to cite: Gerber, L. and Mariéthoz, G.: Pixel-wise Synthetic Hydrological Data for Long-term Modelling: A Novel Approach for Bridging Spatiotemporal Data Gaps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6811, 2025.

EGU25-6852 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

 Accounting for groundwater abstraction and its uncertainties in hydrological models 

Fanny Sarrazin, Alban de Lavenne, Charles Perrin, and Vazken Andréassian

Groundwater sustains human water use globally, as it provides about a quarter and half of the total water withdrawn for irrigation and domestic purposes, respectively. Intense groundwater pumping has an impact both under- and above-ground, by lowering the water table and reducing streamflow in surrounding rivers. However, groundwater abstraction is often neglected in hydrological models because of the large uncertainties involved. These modelling uncertainties arise from the lack of data to constrain natural processes (including groundwater recharge and discharge, intercatchment groundwater flow) and anthropogenic processes (abstraction rates and their spatiotemporal patterns). Therefore, there is a need to represent groundwater abstraction in hydrological models, to consider its uncertainties, and to determine the appropriate level of complexity in process representation given data availability.

This study examines the uncertainties in groundwater abstraction for streamflow predictions over a sample of catchments in France. To this end, we use a parsimonious lumped hydrological model at the daily time step (GR6J), which represents groundwater storage through an exponential store (Michel et al, 2003). Groundwater abstraction is modelled by taking water from this exponential reservoir. We account for the uncertainties in both the water withdrawal input data and the hydrological model parameters (that describe the natural processes). We adopt annual abstraction data from the French national dataset (BNPE), that we temporally disaggregate using different assumptions. Regarding the model parameters, we select an ensemble of parameter sets that produce simulations that are consistent with the observations (streamflow, groundwater levels). Our results reveal that, beyond streamflow observations, piezometric data help to reduce the uncertainty in the parameters such as the capacity of the exponential store. Overall, our study shows the importance of accounting for groundwater abstraction and its uncertainties for streamflow predictions.

Michel, C., Perrin, C. & Andréassian, V., 2003. The exponential store: a correct formulation for rainfall-runoff modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48(1): 109-124, https://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.1.109.43484

How to cite: Sarrazin, F., de Lavenne, A., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.:  Accounting for groundwater abstraction and its uncertainties in hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6852, 2025.

EGU25-6876 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

The effect of spatial distribution of small farm reservoirs on their cumulative hydrological impacts in a small agricultural catchment: a modeling exploration 

Henri Lechevallier, Jérôme Molénat, Cécile Dagès, and Delphine Burger-Leenhardt

Agriculture has always had to face up climate variability, especially rainfall variability, as water stress can damage crops. In many regions of the world, infrastructures to store runoff and stream water such as small reservoirs are seen as a solution to secure food production. The presence of multiple reservoirs in one catchment leads to cumulative impacts which are not necessarily the sum of the individual impacts. In the literature, their impacts are generally studied through modeling. However, the large size of the studied catchments and the aggregated representation of reservoirs in models do not allow to precisely study their cumulative impacts (Habets et al.,2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.188).

In this work, the effect of small reservoir spatial distribution on their hydrological impacts in a small catchment is investigated by a modeling approach using the distributed agro-hydrological model MHYDAS-small-reservoir (Lebon et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105409). This model features physically-based modeling of surface hydrological processes coupled with a soil-crop model, a reservoir model, a groundwater model, and a decision model for agricultural practices. Space discretization is done following parcel shapes and topography. The specificity of the model is thus the spatially explicit representation of reservoirs and associated processes such as irrigation. We constructed eightteen situations with contrasted spatial distribution of reservoirs along the stream network, namely i) upstream, ii) balanced, and iii) downstream, and with varying values of reservoir densities and cumulated reservoir volume.

The Gélon catchment (20km², France), for which MHYDAS-small-reservoir had been previously tested and validated, was used as basis for the numerical experiment. We performed the simulations on 20 years at a hourly time step, with multiple repetitions for each situation. We considered a reference situation without any reservoir, and with the spatial crop distribution of the year 2015. For each situation, reservoirs were randomly positioned along the stream network, with different probability distributions for the upstream, balanced, and downstream modalities. Nearby crops were modified compared to reference and connected to the reservoirs to reach a total irrigated area of 1 km² in all tested situations. The impact of reservoirs is thus due to the infrastructure itself and the associated nearby modifications of cultivated species and practices. Impacts are quantified relatively to the reference situation, and based on stream discharges and crop yields at different time horizons.

The first analysis of the results revealed that the mean interannual outlet discharge decreased in all the simulations, with high interannual and seasonal variability. Higher reservoir number, higher total stored volume, and downstream distributions generally led to higher hydrological impacts, with interactive effects of these factors. The main driver for these impacts was found to be the water withdrawals in reservoirs, which depends on irrigation needs and water availability. The spatial distribution of reservoirs thus appears as an important factor to consider in models to evaluate their impacts.

How to cite: Lechevallier, H., Molénat, J., Dagès, C., and Burger-Leenhardt, D.: The effect of spatial distribution of small farm reservoirs on their cumulative hydrological impacts in a small agricultural catchment: a modeling exploration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6876, 2025.

EGU25-7097 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1 | Highlight

The role of sub-grid orography for global high-resolution flood forecasting 

Jasper Denissen, Gabriele Arduini, Ervin Zsoter, Michel Wortmann, Maliko Tanguy, Estíbaliz Gascón, Cinzia Mazzetti, Christel Prudhomme, Oisín Morrison, Peter Düben, Irina Sandu, Christoph Rüdiger, and Benoît Vannière

River discharge directly affects the water-food-energy-environment nexus and can have devastating impacts during floods. Floods often occur after extreme precipitation events, which are challenging to forecast accurately, both in time and space. Unresolved small-scale processes and features, including convection and orography, have direct impacts on our ability to accurately simulate precipitation, its partitioning into surface and sub-surface runoff, and consequently hydrological forecast skill. This motivates a spatial resolution increase in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, including their land and river components, and the revision of parametrizations suitable for those small-scale processes, such as runoff generation over regions with complex orography.

The Destination Earth programme of the European Commission addresses these issues through the global Extremes Digital Twin (C-EDT): globally coupled simulations at spatial resolutions of ~4.4km. These meteorological simulations are used to force ECMWF’s Land Surface Modelling System (ecLand), the land component of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which in turn generates runoff. By effectively 1-way coupling the hydrodynamic Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model (CaMa-Flood) to the IFS, grid-wise generated runoff is routed as streamflow in rivers and to simulate hydrological events.

Here, we investigate the added value of high resolution for global hydrological simulations by comparing the hydrological C-EDT-CaMa-Flood simulations at ~4.4km with a similar configuration at the operational resolution ~9km. Using the same input data, higher model resolution yields a local mean orography which is more consistent with the true conditions. Such an improved mean orography leads to better representation of the terrain, which is particularly important in mountainous regions. This fosters local precipitation maxima of a higher magnitude, due to convective processes. Conversely, a higher resolution also leads to less variability in sub-grid orography, which is a determining variable when modelling the saturated fraction per grid area over which saturation excess surface runoff is generated. Consequently, a change of the variability in sub-grid orography will directly affect the partitioning of precipitation into runoff and infiltrating water, and therefore the downstream streamflow accumulation and locally also the plant water availability. The results presented here explore the impact of model resolution changes on both the precipitation and runoff generation.

Earlier results focus on several streamflow events in the European Alps and first analyses show that, despite slightly higher precipitation totals over complex orographic regions, less surface runoff is generated, and lower peak streamflow values are predicted. As differences between initial soil moisture conditions between the two resolutions were found to be marginal for those events, the reduction in the sub-grid orography is the remaining factor leading to lower surface runoff generation at the higher resolution. Those results suggest that scale-dependent parameterisations for the runoff-generating processes are needed to minimise uncertainty in the streamflow predictions at varying scales.

How to cite: Denissen, J., Arduini, G., Zsoter, E., Wortmann, M., Tanguy, M., Gascón, E., Mazzetti, C., Prudhomme, C., Morrison, O., Düben, P., Sandu, I., Rüdiger, C., and Vannière, B.: The role of sub-grid orography for global high-resolution flood forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7097, 2025.

EGU25-7644 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Streamflow Response to Tension Water Storage Capacity Distributions in a Large Sample Perspective 

Yan Zhou, Ashish Sharma, and Lucy Marshall

Accurately characterizing the spatial variability of tension water storage capacity (TWC) within a catchment is challenging due to limited in-situ hydrologic data availability. Conventional conceptual rainfall-runoff models typically rely on an empirically specified TWC distribution. However, this empirical distribution lacks a physical foundation and fails to effectively redistribute critical hydrologic components, such as local capacity and contributing area, to real-world contexts. To overcome this limitation, the topographic wetness index (TWI) and its generalized form (GTWI) are introduced to bridge local topographic information with hydrologic components. Four TWC distribution curves are contrived based on the empirical parabolic distribution, empirical linear distribution, TWI, and GTWI, respectively. The effects of these alternate TWC distributions on streamflow are investigated within the framework of the HYdrologic MODel (HYMOD) across 460 Australian catchments. The results illustrate that the GTWI-based HYMOD (GTHYMOD) outperforms other models in terms of daily streamflow, with high Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) attained in 74.8% of the study catchments during the validation period. The eastern coast of Australian catchments presents a superior streamflow performance compared to that in the western coast. GTHYMOD demonstrates its superiority in characterizing spatial variability, an aspect HYMOD lacked. This study has the potential to refine the empirical TWC distribution from a physical perspective and advance our comprehension of underlying hydrologic behaviors.

How to cite: Zhou, Y., Sharma, A., and Marshall, L.: Streamflow Response to Tension Water Storage Capacity Distributions in a Large Sample Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7644, 2025.

EGU25-7756 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Scale Effects of Distributed Hydrological Simulation: Forcing, Structure and Mechanism 

Rui Qian, Xingnan Zhang, Yuanhao Fang, Kaiqi Sheng, and Yunong Cao

The spatial discretization of hydrological sub units (HSU) is an inevitable and effective way to achieve refined distributed simulation. It can not only strengthen the distributed characteristics of the model, but also help simulate the runoff process on a small-scale watershed. However, the spatial variability of the runoff characteristics of HSU divided on a smaller spatial scale increases, and the hydrological process mechanism shows different characteristics under the refined spatio-temporal scale, which then forms the spatio-temporal scale effect. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the theory of spatial discretization of basin hydrological simulation at different spatio-temporal scales, construct a division method for runoff simulation HSUs, quantitatively describe and calculate the corresponding runoff characteristics, develop corresponding runoff simulation methods, and construct a refined distributed basin hydrological model.

In this paper, We studies the influence of the spatial scale of HSU on the runoff simulation of hydrological models, and proposes an optimization method based on the division of HSU scales, the matching of input data time scales, the quantitative calculation of model parameters, and the evaluation of basin applicability. With the refinement of the HSU scales, the spatio-temporal resolution of precipitation and evaporation input data should be improved accordingly to ensure the precise matching of rainfall evaporation process with hydrological response. Specifically, the calculation units were first divided into different scales, gradually refined from large scale to small scale, and the time scale changes of precipitation and evaporation data were simulated, using time steps of 3 hours, 2 hours and 1 hour respectively to improve the resolution of the hydrological response of the basin. Secondly, the input parameters of the Xin'anjiang (XAJ) model were optimized based on the quantitative calculation of the basin's underlying surface characteristics (such as area, morphological factors, river network density, slope, etc.). By combining quantitative calculations and empirical derivations at different scales, the effects of confluence parameters at different scales were analyzed. Finally, this paper verifies the rationality of the basin division, especially by evaluating the closure of the calculation unit based on DEM and bedrock depth data to ensure that each calculation unit has the hydrological mechanism characteristics required for hydrological model. In order to optimize the spatial scale of the calculation unit, a multi-objective optimization algorithm (Pareto frontier optimization) was used, and the rationality of the basin selection was verified through empirical research, thus ensuring the the model’s reliability. The results show that with the refinement of the calculation unit scale, the temporal and spatial scales of the precipitation evaporation input data and the hydrological response are better matched, but if the unit scale is too small, it may not meet the requirements of basin closure and hydrological mechanism. Therefore, the selection of the calculation unit scale should comprehensively consider the basin characteristics, the temporal and spatial scales of the data and the model mechanism. The reasonable calculation unit scale should usually not be less than 100 km² to ensure the accuracy of the model and the reliability of the mechanism.

How to cite: Qian, R., Zhang, X., Fang, Y., Sheng, K., and Cao, Y.: Scale Effects of Distributed Hydrological Simulation: Forcing, Structure and Mechanism, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7756, 2025.

EGU25-8096 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Leveraging flux tower data to systematically evaluate evapotranspiration formulas in conceptual hydrological models 

Gabrielle Burns, Keirnan Fowler, Clare Stephens, and Murray Peel

Accurately representing actual evapotranspiration (AET) is crucial for hydrological modelling, as it is a major component of the catchment water balance. However, AET is often neglected when calibrating conceptual rainfall-runoff models to reproduce observed streamflow. This oversight can lead to models with accurate streamflow predictions but flawed internal fluxes, which could become problematic under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we systematically evaluated 15 evapotranspiration equations by substituting them into three widely used conceptual hydrological models (GR4J, Simhyd, and VIC). These equations represent diverse process assumptions found across common conceptual rainfall-runoff models by variously converting potential evapotranspiration (PET) and soil moisture into AET. The performance of each model-equation combination was assessed using a multi-objective calibration approach, accounting for simulated streamflow and flux tower-derived AET. We applied this method across seven Australian catchments spanning diverse climatic conditions.

Our analysis reveals that the choice of evapotranspiration equation significantly influences both internal flux accuracy and streamflow predictions. The performance among the tested equations varied extensively. It was found some widely used evapotranspiration equations struggled to replicate observed AET, underscoring potential limitations in their assumptions. Conversely, the better performing equations captured observed evapotranspiration signatures and achieved higher objective function values for both AET and streamflow, suggesting they better represent underlying hydrological processes. One equation consistently performed best across model structures and catchments. This equation incorporated a non-linear relationship between soil moisture and AET, while limiting AET to below potential evapotranspiration (PET).

Our findings underscore the need to improve the realism of evapotranspiration processes in conceptual hydrological models, particularly in relation to vegetation dynamics and their interactions with soil and atmosphere. By incorporating flux tower observations into model calibration and evaluation, our study bridges the gap between experimental data and catchment-scale modelling. We recommend that similar systematic reviews be undertaken on other continents to assess global patterns and differences. Enhancing the representation of these processes could improve model reliability across temporal and spatial scales, especially under changing climatic and environmental conditions.

How to cite: Burns, G., Fowler, K., Stephens, C., and Peel, M.: Leveraging flux tower data to systematically evaluate evapotranspiration formulas in conceptual hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8096, 2025.

EGU25-8423 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Snowmelt runoff in global hydrological models 

Xiangyong Lei, Haomei Lin, and Peirong Lin

Runoff during the snowmelt period (hereafter SMR) is an important indicator of water availability and snowmelt floods, and a vital input to the water-food-energy nexus problem in mid-to-high latitude regions. However, despite the abundance of large-scale runoff models and data products, little is known about their SMR performance. Furthermore, diagnosing the key processes that can explain the SMR differences among models remains challenging. To address this issue, this study first utilized three key indicators, i.e., total/maximum discharge in snowmelt periods (Qsum/Qmax) and centroid timing of snowmelt (CTQ), as the first-order indices to assess 15 state-of-the-art models and datasets. Further, an innovative "tree-based model complexity scoring" (TBMCS) method was proposed to score the snow accumulation and snowmelt processes of these models, aiming to quantitatively reveal the relation between model mechanism complexity and their SMR performance. Under long-term mean conditions, we found that the models' simulation of CTQ is better than that of Qsum and Qmax. Overall, the proportion of stations with a ±20% PBias in the simulated Qsum and Qmax is below 30%, while the proportion of stations with a ±5 days difference in the simulated CTQ is below 60%. Most models exhibit larger biases in high-altitude or high-latitude regions, such as the western United States, northern Europe, and the Siberian Plain. Runoff data products are almost always superior to their model counterparts, verifying the role of observation constraints in improving SMR. By using TBMCS, we further found that models with more (less) complex mechanisms often performed better (worse) on CTQ, but this does not apply to Qsum and Qmax. Models focusing more on water balance tend to perform better in simulating Qsum and Qmax. By contrast, models with better energy balance processes do not necessarily yield better water quantity simulations, but can yield better CTQ simulations. This study is the first assessment of the SMR performance of state-of-the-art runoff models and data products. It also innovatively introduces the TBMCS method to challenge the traditional paradigm of "complex models are not necessarily better than simple models", laying the foundation for identifying prioritized areas for future model development.

How to cite: Lei, X., Lin, H., and Lin, P.: Snowmelt runoff in global hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8423, 2025.

EGU25-9767 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Modeling soil-water dynamics for sustainable Argan reforestation using Subsurface Water Retention Technology (SWRT) and HYDRUS-2D in southwest Morocco 

ismail bouizrou, Giulio Castelli, Lorenzo Villani, Boujemaa Fassih, Aicha Nait Douch, Mohamed Ait-El-Mokhtar, Said Wahbi, and Elena Bresci

Land degradation is a major concern in the Mediterranean region. In southwest Morocco, the Argan agroforestry system, part of the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve network, is the primary income source for rural communities. However, it faces growing threats from increased drought, soil erosion, and overgrazing by goats and camels. To face these challenges, combining modeling tools and new water-saving technologies is a promising approach for promoting sustainable argan production. In this study, we used the HYDRUS-2D model to assess the effectiveness of subsurface water retention technology (SWRT) in improving the survival of argan seedlings transplanted for reforestation on coarse-textured soils. A total of 460 argan tree seedlings were transplanted in the Essaouira Living Lab of the PRIMA SALAM-MED Project. Biodegradable SWRT membranes were applied to 50% of the seedlings, while the remaining 50% were left without SWRT. Ground-based data on soil properties, irrigation, climate, and soil moisture were collected from the study site and used to set up and run the model. The adopted methodology involved multisite calibration of soil water content at three depths (10 cm, 20 cm, and 40 cm) to estimate water losses across 10 sites, comprising five sites with SWRT and five sites without SWRT. The results obtained showed that the HYDRUS-2D model correctly simulated the observed soil water content in nearly all sites with and without SWRT. Furthermore, the highest reduction rates in simulated water losses were observed in soil profiles with SWRT compared to those without SWRT which exhibited higher loss rates. Overall, our findings highlight that SWRT is an effective solution for enhancing water-use efficiency and improving root zone water storage, promoting argan tree growth in the Essaouira region, particularly in soils with high infiltration capacity and permeability. Implementing SWRT can also contribute to sustainable land management practices and support local communities by fostering resilient agroforestry systems and securing their primary income source.

Keywords: Mediterranean region; Forest degradation; Argan tree; Land management; SWRT; HYDRUS-2D.

 

Acknowledgement & funding

This research was carried out within the SALAM-MED project funded under the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area (PRIMA) programme supported by the European Union. Grant Agreement number: [2123] [SALAM-MED] [Call 2021 Section 1 Water RIA].

The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the PRIMA Foundation is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.

How to cite: bouizrou, I., Castelli, G., Villani, L., Fassih, B., Nait Douch, A., Ait-El-Mokhtar, M., Wahbi, S., and Bresci, E.: Modeling soil-water dynamics for sustainable Argan reforestation using Subsurface Water Retention Technology (SWRT) and HYDRUS-2D in southwest Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9767, 2025.

EGU25-9918 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Restoring hydrological barriers into hydrological models: enhancing realism and opportunities.  

Benjamin Jackson, Jessica Kitch, Mandy Robinson, Marwa Waly, Zhangjie Peng, Diego Panici, and Richard Brazier

Field boundaries, such as hedgerows, dry-stone walls and fences are used on agricultural fields to control livestock and to separate one parcel of land from another; but these features could also have an important role in modifying hillslope hydrology. Here, we focus on boundary features that we would describe as barrier features, which include walls and hedge banks (i.e. hedges with an underlying earthen or stone bank). These features are effectively impervious barriers to overland flow, so are likely to have a substantial impact on hydrology at the field scale. Surprisingly, mention of these features  is mostly absent from the hydrological literature, particularly in relation to catchment-scale modelling, where it is common to use a topographic representation to model hydrological flow pathways, with little or no parameterisation of such man-made features.

In relevant catchments, including these features within the structure of our models could be beneficial, particularly when trying to better characterise hydrological response times. Furthermore, there are  potential opportunities with regards to semi-natural flood management. Most field boundaries contain gaps in order to provide access to the land via gateways and these access points are often located at the bottom of the field, allowing runoff to continue downslope relatively unimpeded. If these gaps are removed (e.g. by moving a gateway) then the majority of runoff is likely to infiltrate or pond on the surface, resulting in a delayed response. This type of activity could have implications for flood risk management at source, low-flow hydrology and water quality.

We used the semi-distributed hydrological model, Dynamic TOPMODEL for application to the Tamar catchment in South-West England. Using a combination of land use and high-resolution topographic data, we were able to map barrier features across the catchment; it was determined that the majority of agricultural fields contained these features. To account for these features within the model structure, for hydrological response units that were  completely blocked by a hydrological barrier, the overland flow velocity was reduced to ~0, resulting in infiltration and ponding. The model was then calibrated using this new model structure.

We then examined the potential impact of removing gaps in barrier features (i.e. relocating gates).  Rather than removing all gaps in barrier features, we focused on removing gaps that intersected major flow pathways in order to focus on modifications that provided the greatest hydrological impact. As such, we explored the impact of removing gaps that drained flow pathways with a drainage area of 1 and 10 ha, in comparison to the current state of the Tamar catchment. For all scenarios, model results indicate that removing gaps in barrier features leads to reductions in flood peaks but also significant increases in baseflow.

 

 

How to cite: Jackson, B., Kitch, J., Robinson, M., Waly, M., Peng, Z., Panici, D., and Brazier, R.: Restoring hydrological barriers into hydrological models: enhancing realism and opportunities. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9918, 2025.

EGU25-9991 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Saturation area connectivity in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory 

Dušan Marjanović, Juraj Parajka, Borbala Szeles, Camillo Ressl, Peter Strauss, and Günter Blöschl

Surface runoff from agricultural hillslopes is one of the most important factors controlling soil erosion, land degradation and stream water contamination. In order to improve the understanding of surface runoff, studying the connectivity of flow paths and the different properties present in them is necessary for a more complete understanding of system behaviour. This study aims to analyze the structural connectivity scale index on an agricultural hillslope based on time-lapse photography. The study is conducted on a 26.8 ha hillslope at the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) experimental catchment in Austria. Using digital camera observations, the temporal dynamics of connectivity are estimated from the time-lapse photography for the period of 2014-2020. In order to study the impact of the saturated areas, directly measured field data (precipitation, soil moisture, discharge), and its change, was analyzed in relation to the connectivity scale timeseries. The main driving factor for the generation of the saturated areas are the antecedent conditions of the soil. It was found that there is a significant correlation (r2: 0.83) between maximum sediment output in the stream and the detected integral connectivity scale values. Furthermore, the 5-minutes timeseries of sediment discharge and connectivity scale were compared, which resulted in a set of unimodal cross-correlations with the peak located in the 0-50 lag domain; physically, this implies a consistent 0-4 h delay in the catchment response, varying through events.

How to cite: Marjanović, D., Parajka, J., Szeles, B., Ressl, C., Strauss, P., and Blöschl, G.: Saturation area connectivity in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9991, 2025.

EGU25-10093 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Impact of Different Geospatial Meteorological Input Configurations on a Semi-Distributed hydrological model output 

Daniele Andreis, Giuseppe Formetta, and Riccardo Rigon

Hydrological models are influenced by multiple choices, which can significantly affect all phases of their application. These choices impact the calibration process by influencing the estimation of optimized parameters, the validation phase, and the model's overall performance in forecasting applications. Among these sources, input data, such as meteorological variables, play a pivotal role. While accurate collection and validation of such data are essential, they are often insufficient. For example, in the case of semi-distributed hydrological models applied to a basin divided into multiple hydrological response units (HRUs), most of them typically lack adequate instrumentation. Consequently, it becomes necessary to estimate or simulate meteorological inputs, such as precipitation and air temperature through appropriate geostatistical modeling. Beyond the choice of estimation method, a critical consideration is what constitutes a representative value for an HRU: whether it originates from a single point (e.g. the HRU centroid) or is an appropriate statistic from a grid of points. This decision has substantial implications for the model's computational time, performance, and reliability and can introduce uncertainties in the final modeled product.

This study investigates how different configurations of input data may affect model performance in the upper part of the Noce River, located in the Trento province of Italy. The analysis was conducted using the GEOframe framework, its kriging method and semi-distributed model. Four configurations were analyzed moving from the most simplified and computationally convenient (one representative point over the subbasin) towards the most complex (average of gridded values over the subbasin). The effects of the different scenarios are evaluated over several hydrological processes (river discharges, soil moisture, snow evolution), quantifying the trade-offs between computational efficiency and the accuracy of input data representation. The work offers insights into how different configurations can influence the reliability of hydrological forecasts and the uncertainties in the final results.

How to cite: Andreis, D., Formetta, G., and Rigon, R.: Impact of Different Geospatial Meteorological Input Configurations on a Semi-Distributed hydrological model output, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10093, 2025.

EGU25-10141 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

An empirical analysis of local persistency maps for identifying common wetting/drying patterns in non-perennial streams 

Nicola Durighetto, Francesca Barone, and Gianluca Botter

Non-perennial streams constitute a significant portion of the global river network and play a critical role in catchment hydrology, influencing both the quantity and quality of riverine water resources. The presence of surface flow in a stream reach depends on the imbalance between water inputs from the contributing catchment and the subsurface water transport capacity of the soil prism beneath the riverbed. Since the incoming water flow fluctuates over time due to precipitation events and seasonal cycles, some portions of the stream network may periodically cease to flow, shaping the hydrological behavior of non-perennial streams. The likelihood of a stream reach to maintain surface flow over time is captured by the local persistency index, which indicates the fraction of time during which water is present at the site. Local persistency varies across the river network, reflecting the spatial variability of hydrological and morphological factors that influence the emergence of surface flow. However, this important characteristic of channel networks is often overlooked in existing hydrological models. Understanding how local persistency varies across river networks can provide valuable insights on several hydrological aspects, including: a) identifying scaling laws for estimating the prevalence of non-perennial streams at large scales, b) improving the representation network expansion/retraction and the associated patterns of local saturation in river basins, and c) providing insights on subsurface water fluxes and their spatio-temporal dynamics.


In this study, we analyze local persistency maps from 20 river networks across Europe and the US, spanning a wide range of climatic and geolithological settings and sizes (including a novel dataset for the Biois creek catchment - 20km2, Northeastern Italy). In most catchments, the proportion of non-perennial streams remains high even at larger scales (e.g., >50% in nearly all case studies, even in those with the largest contributing areas). The shape of the local persistency distribution varies depending on the underlying climate and morphometric features, revealing distinct hydrological behaviors. Right-skewed distributions, where low persistencies are more common, suggest flashy responses to rainfall events potentially driven by surface or shallow fluxes. In contrast, left-skewed distributions indicate networks with more stable networks where flows dry out only occasionally. Our analysis also reveals distinctive spatial patterns in local persistency. Abrupt changes in persistency are often associated with specific hydrogeologic features, such as localized springs, indicating shifts in surface/subsurface water fluxes usually driven by the underlying geology. In some cases, local persistency increases or decreases gradually as one moves downstream along the network, reflecting the growing of contributing area or the presence of a losing riverbed. A progressive increase in persistency often leads to an upstream expansion of the network, while reductions in persistency correspond with longitudinal disconnections, particularly in regions with local morphological changes (e.g., variations in slope or topographic curvature). By analyzing local persistency patterns within and among catchments, this study provides valuable insights on the common characteristics of non-perennial streams, their relationship with the spatio-temporal variability of water fluxes within a catchment, and their potential role in improving the reliability of hydrological models

How to cite: Durighetto, N., Barone, F., and Botter, G.: An empirical analysis of local persistency maps for identifying common wetting/drying patterns in non-perennial streams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10141, 2025.

EGU25-10329 | Orals | HS2.2.1

Improving the numerical solution of the energy equation in land models 

Ashley Van Beusekom, Raymond Spiteri, and Martyn Clark

At its core, a hydrological model is comprised of the conservation of energy and mass for a myriad of modeled processes across a suite of spatio-temporal scales. Simulations over North America with the SUMMA hydrological model show that the form of the energy equation most commonly used in land models produces both large violations in energy conservation (especially in cold regions) as well as larger numerical errors in soil temperature and soil water content than is possible with more robust solvers. These numerical issues sabotage the success of efforts to improve process-representation. We present improved energy-conserving solutions for land models, testing five approaches over North America with the SUMMA model and evaluating tradeoffs between strict energy conservation and numerical errors in the energy equation. We include approaches that do not use time integration methods with rigorous error control (as is common in hydrological models) as well as approaches that do. The mixed form of the energy equation is discretized to conserve energy to within machine precision. Alternatively, the direct solution of the energy equation (i.e., using enthalpy as a primary variable) yields the smallest numerical errors because it allows error control to be placed on the inherent state variable. In the spirit of advancing process-representation, we illustrate the importance of accurate energy balance solutions for simulations of partially frozen soils, permafrost, and glaciers. In one prominent example, we demonstrate that debris-covered glaciers have substantially dissimilar runoff contributions when evolved using different solutions to the energy equation. The capability to accurately simulate the energy balance of terrestrial systems is essential to improve the theoretical underpinnings of process-based hydrologic models.

How to cite: Van Beusekom, A., Spiteri, R., and Clark, M.: Improving the numerical solution of the energy equation in land models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10329, 2025.

EGU25-10992 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

A new method to identify time to peak in Unit Hydrographs 

Yiming Yin, Rafael Rosolem, and Ross Woods

Catchment response time is an important parameter in hydrological models, particularly in peak flow prediction in catchment scale. Unit hydrographs are hydrological tools that represent the direct runoff response of a catchment to a unit of effective rainfall distributed evenly over a specified duration. They are used to predict the runoff from rainfall events, aiding in flood forecasting, water resource management, and design of drainage systems.

The Unit Hydrograph time to peak (Tp), as proposed in the Flood Estimation Handbook in the UK, is a time parameter that represents the response time of runoff to rainfall. In the Flood Estimation Handbook, the ReFH model employs the unit hydrograph model to transform the rainfall to the direct runoff. Notably, the time parameter Tp, representing the time from the start to the peak in the unit hydrograph model, cannot be directly observed from rainfall and runoff time series.

In previous studies, the observed values of Tp were obtained through calibration. In practical applications, two common issues are often encountered when determining Tp through calibration:

  • Ambiguity in Tp Determination: Due to the sensitivity of the calibration process to input data and parameter assumptions, the Tp value obtained may not be unique, leading to potential inconsistencies.
  • Overfitting to Observed Data: The calibration process may result in a Tp value that fits the observed data well but lacks generalizability, especially when applied to events or catchments with a higher baseflow index or lower direct runoff.

This study introduces a new methodology to directly calculate Tp from rainfall and runoff time series. The principle of this method is based on the definition of Tp, thereby addressing the issues associated with calculating Tp through calibration as mentioned above. In this new method, the observed rainfall and runoff intensities are treated as realizations of random variables. The variance of the timing of rainfall and the variance of the timing of runoff are recognized as measures representing the time scales of rainfall and runoff events. Using these variances, the variance of the timing of the Unit Hydrograph can be derived. Since Tp is the only parameter in the ReFH model that influences the variance of time of the UH, it becomes possible to directly calculate Tp from the computed variance of time of the UH. This eliminates the need for calibration and provides a straightforward way to estimate Tp based on the intrinsic relationship between rainfall, runoff, and the unit hydrograph.

In this research, we study the 50 large events in 431 catchments in UK from the CAMELS-GB.

The results indicate that Tp calculated using the new method is comparable to Tp obtained through calibration in catchments with a low baseflow index. However, in catchments with large baseflow index, the new method provides more reliable results. Replacing calibration with the new method to calculate Tp allows the ReFH model to be applied to a broader range of catchments.

How to cite: Yin, Y., Rosolem, R., and Woods, R.: A new method to identify time to peak in Unit Hydrographs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10992, 2025.

EGU25-11047 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Fractal Dimension and Multiscale Analysis in Geomorphological Parameter Assessment and Hydrological Modeling  

Nicolas Cortes Torres, Sergio Salazar-Galán, and Félix Francés

Spatial scaling and the reconditioning of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are fundamental to hydrological modeling, as they directly affect the accuracy of geomorphological parameters and runoff simulation results. This study analyzes two basins, the Po River (Europe) and the Tugela River (Africa), using base DEMs with a resolution of 30 m, scaled to resolutions of 200, 500, 1000, 2500, and 5000 m. The DEMs were reconditioned using the AGREE method (both locally and globally) to evaluate variations in parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, slope, and hillslope and river network flow velocity. These variations were analyzed in the hydrological modeling of a precipitation event using TETIS v9.1 software, under the assumption of impermeable soil and reproducing the unit hydrograph principle. In addition, an exploratory analysis of the fractal dimension (FD) was conducted. To identify patterns in the scalar interactions of the results, primarily using the Box Counting methodology. Recognizing the notion that fractal dimension can be mathematically interpreted as regressions of data sets, FD was estimated by clustering sets of 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 data points for each of the study scenarios, focusing on variables such as the total basin area, the area covered by the drainage network, the network length, and the drainage density.

The results indicate that the total area of the basins increases with scaling: from 28,955 km² to 31,225 km² for Tugela, and from 67,021 km² to 95,925 km² for Po. Flow direction alterations were observed at intermediate scales (1000 and 2500 m) reaching up to 60%, while the percentage of unaltered flow velocity decreased to 0% for scales between 500 and 1000 m . The slope exhibited a substantial decrease, from mean values of 1.84 and 3.16 to 0.07 and 0.11 for Tugela and Po, respectively. In the modeling, scale variations could amplify simulated peak flows by up to 10% or reduce them by up to 26%, while simulated peak times could be delayed by up to 12% or advanced by up to 20%. Regarding FD, it was observed that the variable "area covered by the drainage network" exhibited a tendency to converge at a value of 1.0 when the dataset corresponded to two fine scales. Conversely, when the dataset corresponded to two coarse scales, the results exhibited a tendency to approach a value of 2.0. Finally, the analysis indicated that clustering 6 data points minimizes uncertainty in the regressions. For instance, the mean values for the "area covered by the drainage network" converged to 1.17, while for total area, network length, and drainage density, the mean values were 1.97, 0.14, and 0.17, respectively.

In conclusion, each spatial scale requires specific adjustments to achieve precise calibration in hydrological modeling. These adjustments are essential to ensure that the results are consistent and reliable, allowing the model to accurately reflect the actual basin conditions and flow dynamics.

How to cite: Cortes Torres, N., Salazar-Galán, S., and Francés, F.: Fractal Dimension and Multiscale Analysis in Geomorphological Parameter Assessment and Hydrological Modeling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11047, 2025.

EGU25-11292 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Enhancing Streamflow Predictions with a River Parameterization in an Integrated Hydrological Model 

Samirasadat Soltani, Alexandre belleflamme, Suad Hammoudeh, and Stefan Kollet

Flow conditions in rivers and open channels are often incorporated into hydrogeological models with a constant horizontal grid resolution, typically without considering real river channel widths. Such grid mismatches can lead to an underestimation of flow velocity where river widths are narrower than the model’s grid size. Furthermore, the exchange between rivers and the subsurface is often too large, leading to erroneously high vertical exchange rates. To address these challenges, this study approximates subscale river channel flow using the kinematic wave equation for overland flow calculation of the ParFlow integrated hydrological model, enhanced by a scaled roughness coefficient as proposed by Schalge et al. (2019). The scaling exploits a relationship between grid cell size and river width, derived from a simplified modification of the Manning-Strickler equation. Additionally, subsurface-river exchange rates, including exfiltration and infiltration rates, are adjusted along riverbeds based on grid resolution. These adjustments correct the exchange rates even when the grid size is relatively coarse. The proposed scaling approach was implemented and validated using the ParFlow integrated hydrological model with its integrated land surface model CLM. The model setup for the test runs features a spatial resolution of 611m over Germany and surrounding regions. The reliability of the results was assessed using an innovative application of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) that shows significantly improved streamflow predictions. A cross-validation with observations from gauging stations confirms these improvements, underscoring the effectiveness of the proposed river-width parameterization.

How to cite: Soltani, S., belleflamme, A., Hammoudeh, S., and Kollet, S.: Enhancing Streamflow Predictions with a River Parameterization in an Integrated Hydrological Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11292, 2025.

EGU25-11874 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

From Unmodelable to Understandable: A Model Agnostic Approach in Prairie Pothole Hydrology 

Mohamed Ismaiel Ahmed, Martyn Clark, Alain Pietroniro, and Tricia Stadnyk

Modelling the streamflow of flat, and pothole-dominated prairie or arctic regions presents challenges due to the influence of variable Non-Contributing Areas (NCAs) on converting local runoff to streamflow. Various models have been developed to represent these NCAs and their impact on streamflow prediction. However, these models may not adequately capture NCAs dynamics, rely heavily on calibration, are not applicable to large-scale basins, or are not model agnostic. In response, we introduce an open-source and model-agnostic version of a revised Hysteretic Depressional Storage (HDS) model. This model incorporates an improved numerical solution that accurately captures the hysteretic relationships of prairie potholes and NCAs, and their effect on streamflow generation. The revised HDS model is implemented and tested in three hydrological models (HYPE, MESH, and SUMMA) on a prairie pothole basin in Canada. Results demonstrate enhanced simulations of streamflow responses in the tested basins. Notably, the modified models successfully replicate the known hysteretic relationships between depressional storage and contributing areas in the region. The open-source HDS implementation approach facilitates integration into hydrologic or land surface modelling systems, enabling improvements in simulating complex hydrology and streamflow patterns globally.

How to cite: Ahmed, M. I., Clark, M., Pietroniro, A., and Stadnyk, T.: From Unmodelable to Understandable: A Model Agnostic Approach in Prairie Pothole Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11874, 2025.

EGU25-12547 | Orals | HS2.2.1 | Highlight

What is the role of machine learning when we want to simulate hydrological processes? 

Martyn P. Clark, Cyril Thebault, Darri Eythorsson, Nicolas Vasquez, Wouter Knoben, and Andrew Wood

It has now been almost five years since Grey Nearing and his colleagues published their provocative commentary “What Role Does Hydrological Science Play in the Age of Machine Learning?”. Nearing et al. reviewed experiments that use deep learning to simulate time series of streamflow, emphasizing results that show there is substantially more information in large‐domain hydrological data sets than hydrologists have been able to translate into theory or models. In their commentary, Nearing et al. encouraged the hydrology community “to focus on developing a quantitative understanding of where and when hydrological process understanding is valuable in a modeling discipline [that is] increasingly dominated by machine learning.”

This presentation will summarize advances in process-based hydrological modeling in our research group in the five years since Nearing et al. published their controversial commentary. To bridge the gap between process-based modeling and machine learning, we depart from the focus of Nearing et al. where machine learning has a central role in the modeling ecosystem – instead, we ask how machine learning can enable and accelerate the development of process-based hydrological models. We will emphasize the components of the model ecosystem where we use machine learning and artificial intelligence, and the ecosystem components where we do not. We will discuss our advances in generating ensemble spatial meteorological fields, the numerical implementation of process-based models, process-based parameter estimation, multi-model combinations, and reproducible and transparent workflows. We will demonstrate tangible progress in closing the gap between the predictive performance of (hybrid) process-based models and pure machine learning algorithms for hydrological predictions across large geographical domains. We also demonstrate prototype workflows that use artificial intelligence to support the hydrological modelling exercise from A-Z, including the configuration, running, optimisation and interpretation of complex process-based models. We consider the community value and dangers of using AI to assist in different aspects of the process of scientific discovery.

We will end the presentation by returning to the question posed by Nearing et al. – What Role Does Hydrological Science Play in the Age of Machine Learning? We will argue that the appropriate use of machine learning and artificial intelligence is beginning to enable the development of process-based models that effectively use the information in large-domain hydrological datasets, while maintaining the interpretability and transparency of physically grounded simulations. We will suggest a path forward for the discipline where machine learning and artificial intelligence are essential to develop the next generation of hydrological prediction systems.

How to cite: Clark, M. P., Thebault, C., Eythorsson, D., Vasquez, N., Knoben, W., and Wood, A.: What is the role of machine learning when we want to simulate hydrological processes?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12547, 2025.

EGU25-12583 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Effect of dynamic representation of root water uptake in a hydrological model on the classification of drought events 

Sven Westermann, Friedrich Boeing, Carla Peter, Julian Schlaak, Andreas Marx, Stephan Thober, and Anke Hildebrandt

With climate change, drought events are more likely to occur in Central Europe. The German Drought Monitor is an established tool in Germany for assessing the severity of soil moisture drought events. Based on soil moisture simulations with the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM), it categorizes the probability of occurrence of the current soil dryness compared to a historical reference period. In this model, the potential access to and uptake of soil water by the roots of the vegetation is static in time and determined by the root fraction in each soil layer. Field estimates of root water uptake suggest that this behavior is unrealistic and limits the impact of the vegetation on the evapotranspiration in the model. Therefore, we compared two schemes with and without root length density constraint, resulting in a more or less dynamic representation of root water uptake in the German Drought Monitor. We found that when root length density was removed, the model yielded a more dynamic uptake pattern, which was also comparable to observations. We investigate whether and which parameters and target variables (actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, soil moisture index indicating drought) are sensitive to this adaptation.

How to cite: Westermann, S., Boeing, F., Peter, C., Schlaak, J., Marx, A., Thober, S., and Hildebrandt, A.: Effect of dynamic representation of root water uptake in a hydrological model on the classification of drought events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12583, 2025.

EGU25-13119 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Fantastic Models and How to Find Them: A Literature Review on Model Selection Practices 

Diana Spieler and Tricia Stadnyk

When starting a new modelling task, one of the very first decisions the modeller has to make is the choice of which model(s) to use. That this selection can have a significant impact on our model results has been shown through numerous studies (e.g. Melsen et al. [2018], Mendoza et al. [2015]). That it is often based on legacy (habit, practicality, convenience) rather than adequacy (fitness for purpose) has also been recognized (Addor&Melsen [2019]). We present the results of a literature review on previous model selection practices to better understand what modellers have considered important when choosing a model for a particular purpose.

We analyze more than 250 studies discussing model selection, model intercomparison or multi-model studies with a focus on conceptual hydrologic models. We identify the criteria used to determine which models were considered “fit for purpose” and why. The analyzed studies compare between two and 7488 model structures in two to 1013 basins. We aggregate information on the evaluation criteria used for different modelling purposes and in different locations and identify common model selection strategies. We monitor the range of model performance in individual comparisons and document both, the progress made and the challenges faced during previous model comparisons.

Our analysis shows a strong dependency on aggregated statistical metrics and a tendency for simplified calibration approaches that were meant to support a broad range of evaluation practices. This often led to a lack of clear answers on which models to prefer. The reasons that were given for (not) selecting a specific model structure seem to indicate a mismatch between the perceptions of when model adequacy is reached. We therefore conclude with a critical discussion of previous model selection strategies and call for a more nuanced approach to model evaluation as well as standards for reporting modelling practices and results.

How to cite: Spieler, D. and Stadnyk, T.: Fantastic Models and How to Find Them: A Literature Review on Model Selection Practices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13119, 2025.

EGU25-13386 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Integrating a subgrid horizontal tracer transport module in HydroBlocks land surface model 

Jiaxuan Cai, Enrico Zorzetto, and Nathaniel Chaney

HydroBlocks provides a generalized framework for representing subgrid heterogeneity in land surface models. High-resolution environmental data and a hierarchical multivariate clustering scheme are employed to aggregate field-scale grid cells with similar characteristics into coherent Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs), over which the model physics is then simulated individually. This customizable clustering process enables HydroBlocks to approximate fully distributed simulations while maintaining computational efficiency. By preserving the geographic locations of tiles, the model allows for spatially explicit interactions among HRUs. Currently, HRU connectivity has been explored only via subsurface flow, where interactions occur within adjacent height bands. However, connectivity in the lower atmospheric boundary layer is not yet accounted for, despite its critical role in processes like the heat and moisture advection, wildfire spread, and the transport of snow, pollen and dust.

To bridge this gap, we propose three possible approaches for calculating horizontal fluxes between HRUs: the Eulerian Connectivity Matrix (ECM), the Lagrangian Connectivity Matrix (LCM), and the Lagrangian Particle Tracking (LPT). While LPT offers the highest accuracy consistently, it is computationally demanding. In contrast, the performance and computational cost of ECM and LCM are highly dependent on HRU configurations and wind field characteristics. These sensitivities can be brought under control by adjusting the number of HRUs connected, calling for a formal process to determine the optimal parameters for each scheme. To this end, a comprehensive evaluation of ECM and LCM under various HRU configurations and wind conditions is conducted, using LPT as a benchmark. A decision-support model is built accordingly to guide the selection of three approaches and determine appropriate parameter ranges. Incorporating a subgrid horizontal tracer transport scheme into HydroBlocks offers an effective pathway to enhance the representation of spatio-temporal dynamics in land surface modeling.

How to cite: Cai, J., Zorzetto, E., and Chaney, N.: Integrating a subgrid horizontal tracer transport module in HydroBlocks land surface model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13386, 2025.

EGU25-13699 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Advancing Hydrological Process Representation with the Dual-grid Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model 

Takahiro Sayama, Tomohiro Tanaka, and Yoshito Sugawara

Accurate representation of hydrological processes across varying spatio-temporal scales is essential for effective flood risk assessment and water resource management. Traditional distributed hydrological models often struggle to integrate rainfall-runoff processes with floodplain inundation dynamics, limiting their ability to assess flood risk at the river basin scale. The Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model addresses this challenge by providing a unified framework that couples both rainfall-runoff and flood inundation in a two-dimensional context.

The original version, RRI v.1, demonstrated the potential for integrated hydrological modeling but had limitations, particularly in underestimating peak discharges in small to medium-sized basins. This issue arose from the model’s structural design, where rainfall passed through multiple slope grid cells before reaching the river channel, delaying flow accumulation, especially in steep or small catchments. Additionally, the model's uniform grid treatment for both rainfall-runoff and inundation increased computational demands for high-resolution inundation simulations. The simplified floodplain representation also failed to differentiate between left and right bank floodplains, limiting its application in complex flood inundation.

To address these issues, RRI v.2 introduces a dual-grid approach and improved hydrologic process-representations with the following key advancements.

  • Dual-grid Framework: Coarse grids (e.g., 150 m) for rainfall-runoff computations and finer grids (e.g., 30 m) for floodplain inundation enhance spatial resolution where necessary while optimizing computational efficiency.
  • Improved Slope Representation: River channels are included in all grid cells, and slope length is directly incorporated into runoff computations, providing more accurate flow routing and addressing peak discharge underestimation in small basins.
  • Enhanced Floodplain Dynamics: Differentiating left and right bank interactions improves floodplain process representation, enhancing model reliability in complex inundation settings.

Additionally, RRI v.2 integrates observed soil characteristics into the runoff model, improving the representation of infiltration and subsurface flow processes referring to our recent work (Sugawara and Sayama, Journal of Hydrology, 2024). Using high-resolution terrain data (e.g., 10 m DEM) and reflecting localized hydrological conditions, the model captures small-scale basin dynamics with greater accuracy.

Preliminary applications to the September 2024 Noto Peninsula heavy rainfall event demonstrate the ability of RRI v.2 to simulate observed flood patterns, peak discharges, and inundation extents. The dual-grid approach not only increases computational efficiency but also ensures scalability for more complex rainfall-runoff and inundation processes. This new development provides a versatile tool for real-time flood forecasting and risk assessment under climate change.

How to cite: Sayama, T., Tanaka, T., and Sugawara, Y.: Advancing Hydrological Process Representation with the Dual-grid Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13699, 2025.

EGU25-13751 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Advancing Terrestrial ECVs through High-Resolution Hydrological Modeling: Insights from the 4DHydro Project 

Ehsan Modiri, Oldrich Rakovec, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Bram Droppers, Leandro Avila, Shima Azimi, Hossein Salehi, Nicolas Cortes-Torres, Nathaly Güiza-Villa, Ruben Imhoff, Felix Frances, Stefan Kollet, Riccardo Rigon, Albrecht Weerts, Almudena García-García, and Luis Samaniego

Accurate representation of terrestrial Essential Climate Variables (tECVs) is crucial for practically understanding the Earth's climate system and supporting policy decisions. This study initiates benchmarking practices within the Land Surface/Hydrologic Model (LSM/HM) communities by integrating high-resolution data with hyper-resolution hydrological modelling. The European Space Agency (ESA)-funded 4DHydro project employs six advanced LSM/HMs: Community Land Model (CLM), GEOfram, mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB), TETIS, and wflow_sbm.

We benchmark, calibrate, and analyze scalability using consistent EMO1 precipitation forcings, focusing on 1 km spatial resolution. We introduce a novel multi-basin (MB) calibration technique based on streamflow data from the Po, Rhine, and Tugela River basins, highlighting its impact on model performance. Scalability analysis evaluates computational trade-offs and performance improvements at higher resolutions while ensuring flux matching. The study includes 34 simulations addressing water balance closure to enhance tECVs.

Key findings explore the advantages of high-resolution modelling, introducing a reference benchmark dataset of 1 km hydrological simulations, optimal gauge selection for MB calibration, and comparative performance of different LSMs and HMs in flux matching across spatial scales. These insights contribute to advancing the integration of high-resolution data with hydrological modelling, promoting consistent and accurate terrestrial ECVs at regional and continental scales.

How to cite: Modiri, E., Rakovec, O., Shrestha, P. K., Droppers, B., Avila, L., Azimi, S., Salehi, H., Cortes-Torres, N., Güiza-Villa, N., Imhoff, R., Frances, F., Kollet, S., Rigon, R., Weerts, A., García-García, A., and Samaniego, L.: Advancing Terrestrial ECVs through High-Resolution Hydrological Modeling: Insights from the 4DHydro Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13751, 2025.

EGU25-14340 | Orals | HS2.2.1

How well can hydrological models simulate drought-to-flood transitions? 

Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Bailey J. Anderson, Paul C. Astagneau, Pablo A. Mendoza, Daniel L. Swain, and Manuela I. Brunner

The impacts of floods can be enhanced when they occur shortly after droughts. Although these types of events have been widely studied separately, it is yet unclear to what extent hydrological models can capture these drought-to-flood transitions and what are the most important modeling decisions to achieve accurate simulations. To address this research gap, we calibrated four conceptual bucket-style hydrological models (GR4J, GR5J, GR6J, and TUW) for 63 catchments in Chile and Switzerland. We assessed the relative importance of different methodological choices, including model structure and calibration metric (based on the Kling-Gupta efficiency - KGE), on the model's capability to capture streamflow transitions. Further, we explored the link between the detection of transitions and the representation of different processes (e.g., snow, soil moisture, and evaporation) during these events. Our results show that i) a satisfactory KGE does not guarantee a good performance in terms of detecting streamflow extremes, ii) the choice of model structure and catchment characteristics play a relatively more important role in the model’s capability to capture transitions (compared to calibration metrics), and iii) the detection of streamflow extremes and transitions primarily depends on streamflow timing rather than other hydrological signatures or variables (e.g., evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, etc.). We conclude that the model’s capability to simulate transitions depends on how well the streamflow response to high snowmelt or precipitation rates is represented. We showed that a model that adequately simulates individual drought and flood events does not necessarily capture observed transitions. Based on our results, we hypothesize that parsimonious models such as GR4J seem to be more suitable for simulating drought-to-flood transitions. Finally, our work highlights the importance of assessing the model’s ability to detect and simulate streamflow extreme transitions, and not purely relying on the overall model performance retrieved from the calibration or verification period.

How to cite: Muñoz-Castro, E., Anderson, B. J., Astagneau, P. C., Mendoza, P. A., Swain, D. L., and Brunner, M. I.: How well can hydrological models simulate drought-to-flood transitions?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14340, 2025.

EGU25-14466 | Orals | HS2.2.1

Development, Validation, and Application of a Large-Scale 2D Hydrodynamic Model for the Lower Mississippi River 

Braxton Chewning, Keaton Jones, Julia Zimmerman, Tate McAlpin, and Allen Hammack

A comprehensive two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been developed for the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) using Adaptive Hydraulics (AdH). Spanning nearly 1000 miles from the confluence of the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, to the Gulf of Mexico, this model integrates the river’s main channel, floodplain, and significant tributaries. The model covers over 22,000 square miles and is composed of approximately 1.3 million nodes, providing high resolution across a vast area. Bathymetric data for the model comes from 2023 multi-beam and single-beam surveys conducted by the US Army Corps of Engineers' Memphis, Vicksburg, and New Orleans districts. The model is validated using data from several gage locations distributed throughout the LMR, as well as continuous water surface profiles. By incorporating a system-wide approach, this model enables large-scale analysis of hydrodynamic behavior, moving beyond the more common reach-by-reach assessments. It provides a more comprehensive understanding of river flow dynamics. This model is set to support a variety of future applications, including the evaluation of batture roughness effects on flowlines and flood attenuation throughout the river. Additionally, it will serve as a foundation for the development of an operational low water model, which will enhance predictions of navigational depths across the LMR. Such capabilities are essential for improving navigation during low water events and for optimizing flood risk management strategies. This model represents a critical tool for advancing hydrodynamic modeling and river system analysis at a large, operational scale.

How to cite: Chewning, B., Jones, K., Zimmerman, J., McAlpin, T., and Hammack, A.: Development, Validation, and Application of a Large-Scale 2D Hydrodynamic Model for the Lower Mississippi River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14466, 2025.

EGU25-14499 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Impact of EO irrigation on LSM/HMs modelling: comparing water balance and model performance in the Po river basin.  

Nathaly Güiza-Villa, Nicolas Cortes-Torres, Félix Frances, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Ehsan Modiri, Oldrich Rakovec, Bram Droppers, Niko Wanders, Leandro Ávila, and Stefan Kollet

This study provides a comparison of water balance components and model performance, using the LSM/HMs models: TETIS, mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) and Community Land Model (CLM), between three different experiments. The first one is a calibrated model using EMO1 [1] precipitation as the meteorological forcing, without explicit irrigation representation. The second experiment is a simulation with EO irrigation [2] added to the previous precipitation as a rainfall input. The resulting discharges are adjusted during post-processing stage to account for irrigation abstraction [3] from surface waters. Finally, the calibration of the latter is based on a naturalised discharge dataset, estimated as the sum of observed flow series and irrigation water abstractions [3] at several stations on the Po river. Simulations, calibrations and comparisons are carried out at two spatial scales, 5 km and 1 km, to take into account possible scale effects on the water balance and model performance.

The results show that, using the initial experiment as a baseline, there is an increase in evapotranspiration at both scales due to the additional irrigation. However, the streamflow may fluctuate between the second and first experiments depending on the model employed, with the difference being corrected through calibration in the third experiment. In terms of performance metrics, the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) decreased, thus the third experiment was conducted to improve the metrics on both scales, besides the representation of basin fluxes and storage.

[1] Joint Research Centre, «EMO: A high-resolution multi-variable gridded meteorological data set for Europe [Data set],» European Commission, Joint Research Centre., 2020. [En línea]. Available: http://data.europa.eu/89h/0bd84be4-cec8-4180-97a6-8b3adaac4d26.

[2] J. Dari, L. Brocca, S. Modanesi, C. Massari, A. Tarpanelli, S. Barbetta, R. Quast, M. Vreugdenhil, V. Freeman, A. Barella-Ortiz, P. Quintana-Seguí, D. Bretreger y E. Volden, «Regional data sets of high-resolution (1 and 6 km) irrigation estimates from space,» Earth System Science Data,15-4, pp. 1555--1575, 2023.

[3] Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Po, «Piano del Bilancio Idrico per il Distretto del fiume Po. Bilancio idrico dell'asta del fiume Po,» 2016.

How to cite: Güiza-Villa, N., Cortes-Torres, N., Frances, F., Shrestha, P. K., Modiri, E., Rakovec, O., Droppers, B., Wanders, N., Ávila, L., and Kollet, S.: Impact of EO irrigation on LSM/HMs modelling: comparing water balance and model performance in the Po river basin. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14499, 2025.

EGU25-14704 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Understanding surface and subsurface flow dynamics in a coastal subsided region 

Chi San Tsai, Jiaqi Liu, Yuka Ito, and Tomochika Tokunaga

Coastal regions are dynamic environments where surface and subsurface hydrological processes interact in complex ways, significantly affecting water resources and ecosystem sustainability. In regions affected by land subsidence, the surface water/groundwater interaction is further complicated by possible changes in groundwater flow paths, surface water dynamics, and so on. These changes may exacerbate flood risks and saline water inundations. In addition, human interventions, such as engineered infrastructure, is likely to intensify these challenges. Despite the progress in understanding these processes, developing models to capture the coupled dynamics of surface and subsurface flows still needs further investigations for quantitative discussion. For this purpose, we use numerical code HydroGeoSphere to develop coupled dynamics of surface and subsurface flow model in the Kujukuri Plain, the eastern coastal region of Japan. Groundwater levels and river levels show a similar trend during non-irrigation periods, primarily influenced by rainfall patterns. This similarity is likely to indicate a hydrological connection between the two systems, highlighting the dominant role of precipitation in these periods. River levels are additionally affected by tidal fluctuations, which are not observed in measured groundwater levels. This can be understood by the amplitude decay of high frequency signal in subsurface environment. The simulation results show a reasonably good agreement with observed river levels and groundwater levels. The sensitive parameters identified in the analysis are hydraulic conductivity, surface roughness coefficient, and recharge which mainly affect model results. These findings highlight the need for careful calibration of these parameters to ensure model reliability for the model results to be applied to effective water resource management strategies.

How to cite: Tsai, C. S., Liu, J., Ito, Y., and Tokunaga, T.: Understanding surface and subsurface flow dynamics in a coastal subsided region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14704, 2025.

The Budyko framework is a strong contender to be a useful tool for studying the impacts of climate change and human activities on the water balance components. This framework proves to be more effective and suitable for catchments with negligible storage changes, which is assumed to be true when taking long-term means. Since the storage change might not be negligible even at decadal scales, the efficacy of the framework at shorter timescales has been debated. Hence, the framework suffers from temporal scaling issues, which have been a central focus in hydrological research. Previous studies have replaced the precipitation term with effective precipitation (Precipitation – Storage change) to tackle this problem at a finer temporal scale. Here, we assess the efficacy of using effective precipitation for various climate change and human intervention scenarios. A closed-loop environment was developed using synthetic data as a business-as-usual scenario and various change scenarios were introduced by adding realistic linear trends in meteorological and hydrological datasets. We found that the effective precipitation strategy works for natural storage variations but fails when human-induced storage changes such as groundwater abstraction is considered.  Therefore, we propose an improved Budyko framework that has storage change index as the third axis added to the traditional Budyko framework. We demonstrate that this novel framework acts as a robust way of partitioning precipitation at finer temporal scales with accuracy better than the existing approaches.

How to cite: Shaw, B. and Dutt Vishwakarma, B.: A new way to incorporate storage change term improves the efficacy of the Budyko framework as compared to using effective precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15213, 2025.

EGU25-15753 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Implications of incorporating anthropogenic water use in the hydrological model simulations of the Rhine basin 

Devi Purnamasari, Willem van Verseveld, Joost Buitink, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Brendan Dalmijn, Adriaan Teuling, and Albrecht Weerts

Anthropogenic water withdrawals have increased substantially due to socio-economic development, changes in consumption patterns, and population growth. Despite comprising a significant portion of available water resources and influencing water availability, anthropogenic water use is often not explicitly incorporated in hydrological models due to data limitations or restricted access. Hydrological models are often calibrated with observed discharge data which implicitly corrects  for this missing process. However, parameter calibration alone is insufficient to fully address the spatiotemporal variability of anthropogenic water use and its impact on hydrological fluxes and states. In this study, we evaluated hydrological fluxes and states in the Rhine basin as part of the Horizon Europe project STARS4Water. In a previous effort, we derived high resolution irrigation maps for the Rhine basin (Purnamasari et al., 2024). These derived irrigation maps are used in wflow_sbm to assess  and quantify agricultural water use in the Rhine river basin. In addition, the wflow_sbm model also accounts for other water use (e.g., domestic, industrial, livestock). We compare the hydrological fluxes and state variables of wflow_sbm with and without water use (including irrigation) against observations, such as discharge, total water storage and water table depth. Initial assessments show an improvement in model performance that is attributed to a reduction in systematic errors of the model. Analysis of hydrological flows also indicates that high flows and low flows are sensitive to assumptions regarding water withdrawals and return flows which has implications for the model predictive capacity for water management. Finally, we provide estimates of agricultural water use for the Rhine basin in comparison to other anthropogenic water use.

 

Purnamasari, D., Teuling, A. J., and Weerts, A. H.: Identifying irrigated areas using land surface temperature and hydrological modelling: Application to Rhine basin, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1929, 2024.

How to cite: Purnamasari, D., van Verseveld, W., Buitink, J., Sperna Weiland, F., Dalmijn, B., Teuling, A., and Weerts, A.: Implications of incorporating anthropogenic water use in the hydrological model simulations of the Rhine basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15753, 2025.

EGU25-16223 | Orals | HS2.2.1

Comparison of reservoir routines for large-scale hydrological models 

Jesús Casado-Rodríguez, Juliana Disperati, Stefania Grimaldi, and Peter Salamon

A correct representation of reservoirs in a large-scale hydrological model is crucial for simulating reliable streamflow, particularly in strongly managed catchments. The challenge lies in developing a simple, universally applicable routine for reservoirs worldwide, regardless of their size, purpose or climate. However, a thorough analysis of reservoir routines is hindered by the limited availability of in situ observations.

To address this limitation, we created a harmonised dataset of reservoir operations —including inflow, storage, and release— using observations in the US (Steyaert et al., 2022), Mexico, Brazil and Spain. The dataset also includes meteorological time series and static attributes —such as reservoir and dam characteristics, water use, and climate indices— that can be used to train data-driven models or regionalise model parameters.

Using that dataset, we compared five reservoir routines from the literature: a simple linear reservoir, the routines implemented in the hydrological models LISFLOOD-OS (Burek et al., 2013), CaMa-Flood (Hanazaki et al., 2022), and mHM (Shrestha et al., 2024), as well as the Starfit routine (Turner et al., 2021). Our comparison analysed the ability of these routines to model both reservoir storage and release, as well as their potential for implementation in continental or global operational systems.

Our results indicate that the Hanazaki routine strikes the best balance between storage-release performance and complexity, as it minimises the number of parameters to be calibrated and has limited data requirements. Consequently, we have implemented the Hanazaki reservoir routine in the LISFLOOD-OS v5 model, which will be used in future versions of both the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS).

How to cite: Casado-Rodríguez, J., Disperati, J., Grimaldi, S., and Salamon, P.: Comparison of reservoir routines for large-scale hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16223, 2025.

EGU25-16423 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Towards an enhanced objective function for hydrological model calibration to improve the performance along the whole flow duration curve 

Stefania Grimaldi, Davide Bavera, Andrea Ficchi, Francesca Moschini, Andrea Toreti, Alberto Pistocchi, and Peter Salamon

The definition of the objective function for hydrological model calibration and goodness-of-fit metrics for validation are crucial in characterising model performance and driving model development. Ideally, model developers and users should identify the most suitable metric to characterize model performance based on their specific use cases and objectives. The benefits of this are evident; for example, the optimal objective function to calibrate a hydrological model only used for flood forecasting should be different from the optimal one to be used for a model focusing only on low flows. However, in practice, most hydrological models are used for multiple applications and a standard generalist function is adopted for their calibration. The two most widely used generalist functions are the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), in its standard and modified versions. While the NSE is a simple normalization of the mean square error (MSE), the KGE overcomes some of the NSE limitations based on the decomposition of the MSE into three components, i.e., the error in the mean simulated streamflow, the relative variability, and the linear correlation between simulations and observations. Still, KGE presents some limitations, including a large sensitivity to outliers and an assumption of linearity and normality in the error distribution, which are impactful especially for the characterization of performances over low flows. Some alternative calibration functions have been proposed in the literature to overcome these limitations, but no calibration function overcomes the traditional two options (NSE and KGE) in improving the simulation along the whole range of the flow duration curve. Here we present the results of an extensive comparison of hydrological models calibrated and validated with multiple functions, including new variants and combinations of KGE and information-theory metrics, that can be suitable to characterize the performance over high, low, and regime flows. Two hydrological models (GR4J and Open Source LISFLOOD) were calibrated with several alternative calibration functions over more than 200 catchments in Europe with a varied range of hydroclimatic conditions. Both models were evaluated using multiple metrics, including use-case specific hydrological signatures focusing on flood characteristics, average regime and low flows. Based on our analysis, a new function is proposed which combines the three KGE components with an additional component based on the Jensen-Shannon Divergence. The performance of the two models calibrated with the new function is shown to outperform the standard KGE and NSE over low flows with minimal change in performance over regimes and high flows. This study shows that more effort should be devoted to the choice of the optimal calibration function for hydrological model applications when aiming to improve specific aspects of model performance.

How to cite: Grimaldi, S., Bavera, D., Ficchi, A., Moschini, F., Toreti, A., Pistocchi, A., and Salamon, P.: Towards an enhanced objective function for hydrological model calibration to improve the performance along the whole flow duration curve, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16423, 2025.

EGU25-16477 | Orals | HS2.2.1

Integrating human water uses in a regional scale distributed hydrological model : model evaluation and sensitivity to climate change adaptation scenarios 

Flora Branger, Louise Mimeau, Louise Crochemore, Jérémie Bonneau, Baptiste Lévêque, Nathan Pellerin, Emilie Chaix, Ruben Kubina, Eric Sauquet, Marielle Montginoul, and Michaël Rabotin

Climate change challenges the availability and allocation of water resources among different human uses, even in large river systems. Water managers are confronted with the risk of water scarcity and conflicts that can vary in time and space across catchments. Hydrological models incorporating different human water uses are being developed to improve our understanding of how such complex systems operate, to make projections of future water resources under climate change, and to test adaptation scenarios for water management.

Three major human uses have been integrated into the process-oriented distributed hydrological model J2000: water abstraction for drinking water (and associated water release through wastewater treatment plants), water abstraction for irrigation, and river regulation through the management of hydroelectric reservoirs. The model has been applied to the Rhône Basin (~ 100,000 km²), covering part of Switzerland and France. The parameterisation of water uses was based on existing models (econometric model for drinking water consumption, crop water demand for irrigation, reconstructed dam influence for reservoir management) and national databases for the location of abstraction points. The model was evaluated against observed discharge from 63 gauging stations throughout the catchment, observed groundwater levels from 107 piezometers and against water abstraction volumes sourced from an independent database. The sensitivity of the model to potential irrigation adaptation scenarios was also assessed.

The results show that although the model gives correct results in terms of discharge, it struggles to reproduce abstraction volumes. The parameterisation of the water use components appears to be the main problem, in particular because of the need to make simplifying assumptions for the selection of abstraction/release points. The water use model also appears to be very sensitive to the quality of the representation of natural hydrological processes, especially precipitation in mountain areas and groundwater storage. Finally, the influence of irrigation scenarios appears to be limited beyond a certain catchment size. This study shows the advantages of using several different variables for model evaluation and the interest of distributed models to analyse simulation results at appropriate spatial scales.

How to cite: Branger, F., Mimeau, L., Crochemore, L., Bonneau, J., Lévêque, B., Pellerin, N., Chaix, E., Kubina, R., Sauquet, E., Montginoul, M., and Rabotin, M.: Integrating human water uses in a regional scale distributed hydrological model : model evaluation and sensitivity to climate change adaptation scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16477, 2025.

EGU25-18149 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Flows Over Flexible Vegetation Canopies: Hydrodynamic Impact and Drag Modeling 

Louis Vallier, Frederic Moulin, and Ludovic Cassan

In the field of environmental fluid mechanics, flows over vegetated canopies remain a critical research area. Vegetation covering natural watercourse beds significantly influences flow hydrodynamics, turbulence structures (Nepf & Vivoni 2000, Luhar et al. 2008), sediment transport (Morris et al. 2008), and hydraulic efficiency (Nikora 2008). Furthermore, it impacts aquatic habitats (Wilcock 1999) and water quality (Chambers & Prepas 1994). Despite extensive studies, the influence of highly flexible and elongated vegetation morphologies, such as seagrass and water ranunculus, remains poorly understood.

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the influence of highly interactive vegetation structures on velocity profiles, turbulent stress tensors, and drag, in comparison with rigid, less flexible, or less elongated canopies. A secondary objective is to propose a generalized friction law for this type of canopy.

To model this vegetation, we constructed a synthetic bed using rectangular plastic bands (1 cm wide, 29.8 cm long, 𝐸𝐼=1.5×10−6 MPa). Experiments were conducted in a tiltable flume (4 m long, 40 cm wide) at the IMFT laboratory in Toulouse. A total of 24 uniform and stationary turbulent flows were analyzed under various hydraulic regimes, alongside vegetation image analysis. Accurate flow velocity measurements were obtained for 7 uniform regimes using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). Spatio-temporal double-averaged decomposition of the turbulent field (Nikora 2007) was employed to estimate mean turbulent profiles, including Reynolds stress tensors, and to calculate vertical drag profiles from the momentum equation.

The vegetation bands exhibited bending near the bed (wake zone) and flapping motions further up (flapping zone), driven by turbulence. The highly elongated canopy flow demonstrated a bi-layer structure, with distinct vertical distributions of drag and turbulent stresses corresponding to each zone’s characteristic length scale. From the observed vegetation structure and drag profiles, we developed physically based drag laws for both the wake and flapping zones. By coupling these drag laws with the universal logarithmic law for flow for the outer flow, we derived a Darcy friction law for flow over dense, submerged, and highly elongated flexible canopies. 

How to cite: Vallier, L., Moulin, F., and Cassan, L.: Flows Over Flexible Vegetation Canopies: Hydrodynamic Impact and Drag Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18149, 2025.

Irrigation can significantly influence the hydrological system of agriculturally productive catchments thus understanding the dynamics of the water balance is indispensable for sustainable (agricultural) water management. Accurate estimation of catchment water balance, using distributed hydrological modelling and earth observation data, requires thorough consideration of the associated uncertainties from different sources such as uncertainties in the model representation of system processes and the errors and uncertainties embedded in the remotely sensed data.

In this study, we estimate the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of the water balance of the Hindon River Basin, a sub-basin of the Ganga River Basin in India, where intense irrigation has driven overexploitation of water resources, highly influencing the hydrological regime. For this estimation the open-source distributed hydrological model wflow_sbm is used and evaluated with open global datasets, demonstrating the applicability of this method in data scarce regions. We emphasize on representing relevant hydrological features of the Hindon Basin that are often neglected in hydrological model applications: irrigation, domestic and industrial water use, and (infiltrating) river-aquifer interaction. Our analysis includes the quantification and assessment of the uncertainties associated with the global datasets used and model representation of important processes. First, prior uncertainties of the input variables were analyzed by comparing the errors and correlations of the products from different sources. Second, the impact of different schematizations of irrigation application and subsurface flow (including river infiltration to aquifer) on the modelled water balance is assessed. Finally, model output is evaluated by comparing the estimates and uncertainties of modelled water balance components with estimates from various global datasets.

Our analysis reveals the impact of different model choices, highlighting the necessity of proper model representation of hydrological processes and uncertainty assessment to achieve a more reliable estimation of catchment water balance.

How to cite: Mendoza, R., van Verseveld, W., Weerts, A., Sperna Weiland, F., and Seijger, C.: Quantifying water balance dynamics and associated uncertainties in an irrigated catchment using open-source gridded datasets and hydrological modelling with improved process representation: case of Hindon River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18743, 2025.

EGU25-19178 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Assessment of the groundwater critical times to predict the impact of climate change on aquifers 

Anais Ibourichene and Sabine Attinger

As the primary source of freshwater, groundwater plays a critical role in supporting agriculture, sustaining ecosystems, and enhancing climate resilience. In the context of climate change, understanding the processes that influence groundwater is essential to predict how shifting precipitation patterns, altered evaporation rates, and the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods will impact aquifers. However, assessing these processes is complicated by the limited availability of direct observations.

In this work, we aim to investigate the response times of groundwater systems and identify the key processes driving their evolution over time. Understanding the critical time of groundwater is crucial for predicting how groundwater systems will react to climate change, especially in terms of recharge and discharge dynamics.

First, we start by assessing the critical times of groundwater. For this purpose, the spectro-analysis method, whose efficiency has been demonstrated by Houben et al. (2022), is extending to discharge data collected across Europe. Our data spans from 1950 to the present, allowing us to identify critical times across a wide range of scales.

Second, we assess how critical times are influenced by rheological factors, climate conditions, and soil properties. In particular, we describe the relationships between critical times and various parameters selected to characterize the rheology, climate, and soil. This information enables us to identify the aquifers that are primarily controlled by climatic conditions and that may therefore be more vulnerable to climate change in the future.

Finally, we develop a machine learning model to predict the evolution of critical times with the variations in precipitation and evapotranspiration induced by climate change. We are therefore able to bring new constrains regarding the response time of groundwater to climate change for the years to come.

Our work will provide new insights regarding the impact of climate change on groundwater.By identifying the key parameters that control the critical times of groundwater, we can pinpoint the aquifers most vulnerable to climate-related changes. This knowledge allows us to focus on regions where the development of targeted adaptation strategies will be beneficial. These plans could help mitigate the potential risks of groundwater depletion and ensure the resilience of water resources in the face of climate change

How to cite: Ibourichene, A. and Attinger, S.: Assessment of the groundwater critical times to predict the impact of climate change on aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19178, 2025.

EGU25-19368 | Posters on site | HS2.2.1

Advancing hydrological modeling in small watersheds: the fiumarella case study (southern Italy) 

Biagio Sileo, Silvano Fortunato Dal Sasso, Beniamino Onorati, Maria Rosaria Margiotta, Andrea Gioia, Vito Iacobellis, and Mauro Fiorentino

The hydrological response of small basins remains complex and challenging  to quantify in an accurate way, particularly during extreme events such as floods as well as in the context of sustainable water resources management (Sellami et al., 2016). The application of hydrological models at basin scale offers a promising solution to this challenge by providing valuable tools for water resources management, enabling the analysis of past and current basin conditions as well as the evaluation of the implications of management decisions and imposed changes. In this study, the distributed hydrological model DREAM (Manfreda et al., 2005; Perrini et al., 2024), which incorporates Dunnian and Hortonian mechanisms, was applied to simulate flood events in the Fiumarella di Corleto basin (32.5 km²) and its sub-basin (0.65 km²) in the Italian region of Basilicata. Simulations were conducted for flood events occurring over a 20-year period (2002–2022). These simulations were based on a detailed hydrological and geomorphological characterization of the study area, integrating a hydro-meteorological dataset and initial soil moisture conditions derived from monitoring instruments and a geographical database (Dal Sasso et al., 2023) . Significant flood events were selected for model parameter optimization,  due to their representativeness, allowing for the verification of the model’s performance, ensuring its ability to accurately reproduce hydrological behavior as well as for belonging to a dataset characterized by complete hydrological information. The results show that the hydrological model, with the Hortonian runoff mechanism, outperforms in capturing the basin’s immediate response to rainfall events. Preliminary results revealed a satisfactory match between simulated and observed data, as evidenced by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ranging from 0.52 to 0.73 and the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient between 0.56 and 0.75. While errors in simulated and observed peak outflows varied, ranging from acceptable (2–3%) to more significant (up to 20%), the overall performance metrics indicate reliable alignment.  These findings underscore the model’s capability to accurately reproduce flood processes, confirming its reliability for simulating extreme hydrological events and supporting its application in watershed management and flood risk mitigation.

DISCLAIMERS

The present research has been carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan - NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 - D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

This abstract is part of the project NODES which has received fundining from the MUR-M4C2 1.5 of PNRR funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU (Grant agreement no. ECS00000036).

How to cite: Sileo, B., Dal Sasso, S. F., Onorati, B., Margiotta, M. R., Gioia, A., Iacobellis, V., and Fiorentino, M.: Advancing hydrological modeling in small watersheds: the fiumarella case study (southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19368, 2025.

Reservoirs play a critical role in shaping hydrological regimes within watershed systems, presenting challenges for accurate flood modeling. While many studies have developed reservoir operation schemes to enhance downstream discharge predictions, the impact of reservoir representation on the calibration of distributed hydrological models remains unclear. Moreover, the limited availability of upstream reservoir regulation data complicates the inclusion of dams in flood modeling. This study introduced a synergistic framework designed to improve flood predictions in data-scarce, dam-regulated basins, with the Nandu River Basin in Hainan, China, as a case study. By integrating 30m FABDEM and multi-source satellite altimetry, we reconstructed daily storage variations of the Songtao Reservoir, optimizing reservoir scheme parameters, for incorporation into the DRIVE hydrological model (DRIVE-Dam). Two calibration strategies—reservoir-inclusive and reservoir-excluded—were tested using streamflow data from the basin outlet. Satellite-derived data effectively captured high-frequency reservoir water level and storage dynamics (CC=0.95), enabling long-term simulations without management information. Evaluations incorporating hydro-stations within the watershed demonstrated that the reservoir-enabled calibration produced more accurate event hydrographs, reduced peak flow errors, and yielded realistic spatial patterns of N-year flood thresholds. This strategy also lowered flood false alarm rates (FAR) from 0.42 to 0.20 and improved the critical success index (CSI) from 0.50 to 0.54. In contrast, the reservoir-excluded calibration exhibited an overly active baseflow and subdued runoff during rainfall events, and slow flood recession, leading to overestimation of minor floods. These discrepancies arose from the mismatch between the model's naturalized assumptions and its attempt to fit observed human-influenced flood pulses, resulting in a delayed response throughout the entire basin drainage network. Our findings underscore the shortcomings of traditional calibration paradigms for watershed flood estimation and highlight the strategic value of Earth observation in enhancing hydrological and flood modeling.

How to cite: Li, C., Wu, H., and Alfieri, L.: Leveraging Satellite-Derived Reservoir Data for Enhanced Hydrological Model Calibration: Towards Advanced Flood Prediction in Dam-Regulated Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19614, 2025.

EGU25-20593 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.1

Bridging the Gap: How Watershed Discretization Scale Affects Flood Forecasting Accuracy 

Nicolas Velasquez, Simon Rendon, and Witold Krajewski

Accurate flood forecasting is critical for mitigating risks and safeguarding infrastructure and communities. Usually, we perform these forecasts by using distributed hydrological models, often calibrated at gauged watersheds and extrapolated to ungauged regions. However, depending on the model discretization, forecasts may suffer from significant performance degradation due to inadequate spatial discretization scales (DS), particularly in representing river networks. This study investigates the effects of discretization on watershed geomorphology and hydrological simulations using the Hillslope Link Model (HLM) applied to the Smooky Hills watershed in Kansas, U.S. We analyzed six DS ranging between 0.1 (benchmark DS-BDS and closer to observable network) and 70km2 (closer to USGS HUCs 12 and Hydrosheds). We assessed changes in geomorphological features such as width functions, saturated hydraulic conductivity, slope distributions, and hillslope travel times. We forced a constant runoff HLM formulation with 100 uniform rainfall patterns obtained from MRMS observations for the hydrological simulations. We compared our results at 400 control points distributed along the river network, covering scales between 1 and 50,000 km2 (outlet). The simulations include a version in which all the DS share the same routing parameters and another in which we select the routing parameters with the best performance at each control point and event. Our results show a loss of geomorphological and topological information as we use coarser DSs.Features such as the estimated hillslope travel times and the width function exhibit significant changes compared to the 0.1 km2 DS. Hydrological simulations revealed that coarser DSs result in decreased peak flows and delayed times to peak, highlighting the sensitivity of model performance to spatial scale. Parameter calibration further demonstrated that optimal model parameters vary across discretization scales and locations within the watershed, underscoring the limitations of universal calibration strategies. Our results also suggest a connection between the loss of geomorphological features and the simulations that could eventually be used to explain and overcome the limitations due to inadequate DSs. However, we are still unable to generalize this connection. These findings emphasize the importance of scale-sensitive modeling approaches and caution against the indiscriminate application of coarse discretization in flood forecasting for ungauged basins. By addressing the impacts of spatial resolution on predictive accuracy, this work contributes to advancing process representation in hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Velasquez, N., Rendon, S., and Krajewski, W.: Bridging the Gap: How Watershed Discretization Scale Affects Flood Forecasting Accuracy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20593, 2025.

EGU25-20917 | Orals | HS2.2.1

Using chemical fingerprints and process modeling to inform a parsimonious model for DOC export from a temperate headwater catchment 

Jan Fleckenstein, Benedikt J. Werner, Linus S. Schauer, Andreas Musolff, Oliver Lechtenfeld, and Christian Birkel

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in forested headwater streams have shown critical upward trends in the last decades with potentially harmful environmental consequences and potential impacts on drinking water production from downstream reservoirs. Using chemical fingerprints of DOC in the riparian zone (RZ) of a temperate headwater catchment in the Harz Mountains in Germany and a hydrologic process model for the riparian corridor, we could identify dominant stream flow generation processes and DOC source zones for a representative river reach (Werner et al. 2021). The gained local process understanding was used to adapt a parsimonious, box-type, hydrology-biogeochemistry model for the entire headwater catchment to reflect the dominant runoff generation and DOC mobilization processes using a threshold-controlled, surface flux mechanism for the RZ.  The model was used to simulate DOC export dynamics to a downstream drinking water reservoir. A multi-objective calibration on stream flow and instream DOC concentration (Kling-Gupta efficiencies of 0.79 and 0.73 for the hydrological and biogeochemical modules, respectively) yielded reasonable riparian zone water and DOC dynamics as well as stream DOC exports, which were in line with observations. Fast, surficial water flow components from the RZ accounted for the largest fraction of total DOC export.

Calibrating the hydrological module of the model to discharge first, followed by a consecutive calibration of the biogeochemical model to DOC flux, produced unrealistic groundwater (GW) dynamics and GW DOC concentrations, despite a reasonable match with observed discharge and stream DOC concentrations. In contrast, the multi-objective simultaneous calibration of both, the hydrologic and biogeochemical modules, yielded an internally consistent model with adequately simulated discharge and DOC at the catchment outlet. This highlights the strong coupling between catchment internal water partitioning and DOC mobilization and export, which cannot be captured, when calibrating water and solute fluxes separately.

References:

Werner, B.J., Musolff, A., Lechtenfeld, O.J., de Rooij, G.H., Oosterwoud, M.R., Fleckenstein, J.H. (2021) Small-scale topography explains patterns and dynamics of dissolved organic carbon exports from the riparian zone of a temperate, forested catchment, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 6067–6086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6067-2021

How to cite: Fleckenstein, J., Werner, B. J., Schauer, L. S., Musolff, A., Lechtenfeld, O., and Birkel, C.: Using chemical fingerprints and process modeling to inform a parsimonious model for DOC export from a temperate headwater catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20917, 2025.

EGU25-824 | Orals | HS2.2.2

Hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes in the shallow groundwater system in Kahramankazan Basin (Ankara, Turkiye) 

Şebnem Arslan, Binnur Alpaslan, Mürşide Özler, and Sevda Canbaz

Stable isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium-δD) and oxygen (oxygen-18-δ¹⁸O) are considered ideal tracers in addressing issues related to the research, development, and management of water resources. These isotopes circulate with groundwater within the hydrogeological system and are generally unaffected by physico-chemical processes. Consequently, they are widely used to determine the origin, recharge elevation, and mixing mechanisms of groundwater. In this study, in-situ physico-chemical parameters (electrical conductivity [EC], temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen [DO], and stable isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O and δD) of the shallow groundwater system in the Kahramankazan Basin (Ankara) were examined during dry (November 2021) and wet (April 2022) periods. Previous studies indicate that the shallow groundwater system in this area has been under stress for the past 40 years due to sand-gravel mining activities and groundwater over-abstraction. As a result, the thickness of the aquifer reportedly decreased from 15–45 m to 10–25 m over the years. In-situ analyses of the samples collected during the dry period showed that EC, pH and DO values varied from 600 to 6740 μS/cm, 7.18 to 7.92 and 2.51 to 7.15 mg/l, respectively. The isotopic compositions of groundwater during the dry period ranged from -8.1‰ to -9.5‰ for δ¹⁸O (mean: -8.82‰, n=9) and from -54.7‰ to -63.4‰ for δD (mean: -60‰). During the wet period, EC values slightly decreased, ranging from 563 μS/cm to 5070 μS/cm. Some samples deviated from the Local (Ankara) Meteoric Water Line (δD = 8δ¹⁸O + 11.54). For these samples, as expected, the effect of evaporation was greater during the dry period compared to the wet period. Recharge elevations, determined from the relationship between δ¹⁸O and elevation obtained in previous studies, were found to range from 820 m to 1274 m, consistent with the topography. This study revealed that along the flow path of the alluvial aquifer, there is a notable increase in EC values and isotopic enrichment of stable isotope values due to an increase in evaporation and the adverse impacts of urbanization.

How to cite: Arslan, Ş., Alpaslan, B., Özler, M., and Canbaz, S.: Hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes in the shallow groundwater system in Kahramankazan Basin (Ankara, Turkiye), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-824, 2025.

EGU25-1631 | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Water isotopes exhibit anomalous transport: implications for assessment of catchment properties 

Brian Berkowitz, Dan Elhanati, Erwin Zehe, and Ishai Dror

To estimate water transit time distributions and aquifer storage thickness in catchments, measurements of water isotopes are used routinely. Water isotopes (e.g., D2O/H218O) are generally considered to behave identically to water molecules (H2O); they are thus considered fully representative of water movement and preferred over inert chemical tracers for catchment assessment purposes. However, laboratory-scale measurements presented here show that water isotopes exhibit anomalous transport behavior that is essentially identical to that of inert chemical tracers. For both water isotopes and inert chemical tracers, subject to anomalous transport, the measured mean tracer velocity – of both water isotopes and inert chemical tracers – is not equal to the mean water velocity (Darcy velocity). The often-manifested inequality between apparent mean water velocity and estimated mean tracer velocity must therefore be recognized when estimating catchment properties. For example, accounting for anomalous transport of water isotopes can significantly reduce estimates of aquifer storage thickness over an entire watershed.

 

How to cite: Berkowitz, B., Elhanati, D., Zehe, E., and Dror, I.: Water isotopes exhibit anomalous transport: implications for assessment of catchment properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1631, 2025.

EGU25-3993 | Orals | HS2.2.2

Tracer-aided modelling with in-situ isotope data to advance understanding of ecohydrological partitioning in urban areas 

Doerthe Tetzlaff, Christian Birkel, Aaron Smith, Ann-Maria Ring, Jessica Landgraf, and Chris Soulsby

Quantifying ecohydrological partitioning is important to understand water balance changes in the context of land cover change, and requires better integration of novel field data and improved models. Stable water isotopes are invaluable in understanding how green water fluxes are partitioned in evapotranspiration (ET) as they allow to constrain estimates of the depths of root water uptake that sustain interception I, transpiration T and soil evaporation E. Recent developments allowing for in-situ monitoring now provide prolonged periods of near-continuous isotope time series for multiple landscape compartments of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Such high-resolution isotope data provide an invaluable resource for improving isotope-aided ecohydrological models by allowing to inform model structure, enhance process understanding and constrain flux estimates.

Here, we use concurrent in-situ isotope time series of entire growing periods of soil water, xylem water and atmospheric water vapour in an intensively monitored urban green space in Berlin, Germany. These data were integrated into tracer-aided ecohydrological models with, e.g., isotopes in xylem and atmospheric moisture as simulation targets. Both variables were found to be informative, although xylem isotopes were less stable with ambiguities in terms of the influence of internal ecophysiological processes or methodological problems. Atmospheric vapor sampled at 1, 5 and 10m heights was logistically much simpler and captured well the isotopic signals of I, E and T from the xylem, as well as more regional influences.

We could resolve ET fluxes revealing seasonal changes in dominant sources of root water uptake, as well as time-variant changes in the relative important of E, I and T to ET losses. Inter-species differences between willow (Salix) and maple (Acer) trees were also captured. The study demonstrated the complementarity of different isotope approaches and highlighted the under-utilised potential of atmospheric water vapour in ecohydrological models. We also demonstrated the importance of using non-isotope ecohydrological data (sap-flow and dendrometers) in conjunction as calibration constraints. 

 

How to cite: Tetzlaff, D., Birkel, C., Smith, A., Ring, A.-M., Landgraf, J., and Soulsby, C.: Tracer-aided modelling with in-situ isotope data to advance understanding of ecohydrological partitioning in urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3993, 2025.

EGU25-4462 | Orals | HS2.2.2

Veterinary Pharmaceuticals in surface waters as tracers of short water transit times 

Paolo Benettin, Nikola Rakonjac, Raphaël Miazza, Andrea Rinaldo, and Coen Ritsema

Livestock animals are commonly treated with veterinary pharmaceuticals (VPs), and their residues often enter the environment through manure applied to soil. A fraction of these residues may be further transported to surface waters through intricate transport mechanisms. Here, we examine the temporal dynamics of VPs in lowland surface waters of an agricultural catchment in the Netherlands, utilizing information on VPs concentrations in manure and surface water measurements. We develop a parsimonious catchment-scale transport model for VPs that is based on time-variable water transit time distributions. The transport model considers multiple processes experienced by the VPs during their transfer to the stream network, including evapoconcentration, sorption and degradation. Our results suggest that, despite the mean water transit times of several years typical of lowland catchments, as well as relatively strong VP sorption or rapid degradation, detectable amounts of VPs in the order of 1–10 ng/L may reach the stream ecosystem through fast flowpaths characterized by short transit times. Therefore, VPs may be used as tracers of short water flowpaths in agricultural catchments.

How to cite: Benettin, P., Rakonjac, N., Miazza, R., Rinaldo, A., and Ritsema, C.: Veterinary Pharmaceuticals in surface waters as tracers of short water transit times, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4462, 2025.

EGU25-7318 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.2

Integrating isotopes and remote sensing into large-scale ecohydrological modelling of heavily managed water resource systems in drought sensitive areas 

Hanwu Zheng, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Christian Birkel, Songjun Wu, and Chris Soulsby

Whilst stable water isotopes have enhanced process understanding and tracer-aided ecohydrological modelling in contrasting landscapes around the World, most studies have been undertaken in relatively small catchments with limited anthropogenic management and disturbance. There are clear knowledge gaps in terms of how such approaches can be applied in larger, more complex landscapes with more intrusive management impacts from agriculture, industry and urban areas. Under more dominant influence of human management decisions, the ecohydrological coupling between land use, water storage and water fluxes become even more complicated. Understanding and quantifying these couplings requires improved, integrated modelling of the more natural and more managed components of catchment systems. As water stable isotope (ẟ18O and ẟ2H) are effective in identifying water sources, flow paths and transit times, and have been increasingly applied in tracer-aided hydrological modelling, we use them here to better understand the hydrology of the Spree catchment in Germany. This is a major strategic water resource which provides Berlin’s main drinking water supply, maintains significant agricultural irrigation and sustains local industrial needs. We focus on a 2800km2 sub-catchment; the ET-dominated Spreewald region that has a heterogenous mixed land use (croplands, pastures, forests and urban) but is heavily influenced by water resource management interventions (regulated and unregulated abstractions, inter-basin transfers etc.). We used the spatially distributed tracer-aided model STARR to simulate the effects of natural water storage-flux dynamics and monitored management intervention on stream flow over a 6 year period. We found that conventional spatially-distributed streamflow-based calibration resulted in unrealistic isotope simulations, with large uncertainty in rainfall partitioning, overestimation of soil evaporation and ambiguity of runoff sources. Re-parameterization of the model provided a better constraint on isotope simulations across the model domain with no deterioration of streamflow estimates and a much stronger apportionment of runoff to groundwater and upstream sources. This was further validated against local flux tower data and satellite derived ET products (PML) for the region. However, some sub-catchments within the model domain under-predicted summer stream flows and these were consistent with areas where un-monitored irrigation in riparian croplands likely increases ET and reduces stream flow. The modelling framework used shows promising potential for wider use of isotopes in large scale tracer-aided modelling of complex, heavily managed catchments. Isotopes can help reduce equifinality in traditional water resource modelling and help identify the influence of unregulated human managements effects such as irrigation. However, given the inevitable logistical constraints in isotope sampling over extensive areas, integration with satellite products, such as ET or soil moisture estimates, can help leverage maximum value from available isotope-based insights in large-scale modelling.

How to cite: Zheng, H., Tetzlaff, D., Birkel, C., Wu, S., and Soulsby, C.: Integrating isotopes and remote sensing into large-scale ecohydrological modelling of heavily managed water resource systems in drought sensitive areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7318, 2025.

EGU25-7748 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Relationship Between Nitrate Sources and Tropical Land Use in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia 

Mayu Ogiya, Koichi Sakakibara, Siti Nurhidayu, Yusra Shabir, Takashi Nakamura, and Maki Tsujimura

Nitrogen loading due to urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural expansion is increasing in tropical regions, and releases nitrogen into water as nitrate ion (NO3), causing negative effects on the environment. However, there are limited studies on the nitrogen loadings and NO3 sources in the watershed with mixed tropical land use. To address this gap, this study aims to determine the NO3 sources and tropical land use effect on the nitrogen loadings in the Langat River basin, Malaysia, which includes tropical rainforest upstream, urban areas midstream, and oil palm plantation areas downstream. The stream and irrigation water in oil palm plantations and the river water were collected during the wet and dry seasons. The samples were analyzed for major dissolved ion concentrations, water isotope ratios (δ2H and δ18O of H2O), and nitrate nitrogen and oxygen isotope ratios (δ15N and δ18O of NO3). The NO3concentration ranged from 1.41 mg/L to 19.09 mg/L in river water and from 0.13 mg/L to 2.44 mg/L in the stream and irrigation water in the oil palm plantation, much lower than in river water. The NO3 concentration was higher in the dry season than in the wet season, likely due to flushing during the wet season and water retention during the dry season. The δ15N-NO3 and δ18O-NO3 ratios ranged from -2.52‰ to 19.12‰ and from -3.62‰ to 23.90‰, respectively. The stream water in oil palm plantations showed a low value of δ15N-NO3, while the irrigation water isotope values were high. This could be due to denitrification and absorption by oil palm trees during the discharge from the oil palm plantation to the outside as irrigation drainage. The NO3 concentration decreased with an increase in the proportion of forest area in the catchment, assuming each water sampling point to be the outlet. In contrast, NO3 concentration increased with the proportion of built-up areas. The δ15N-NO3 decreased as the proportion of oil palm plantations increased. These findings indicated that NO3 discharge from tropical rainforests could not contribute substantially to river water. The main sources of nitrate in river water could be ammonia fertilizer from plantation areas and sewage water from urban areas. Overall, as in previous studies, fertilizers and sewage were identified as the main sources of nitrate ions in tropical urban and agricultural areas. In addition, this study in the case of oil palm plantations revealed that although denitrification and oil palm trees absorb the NO3, the δ15N-NO3 in the river water showed fertilizer-derived runoff, indicating that the impact of the plantations on water quality cannot be overlooked.

How to cite: Ogiya, M., Sakakibara, K., Nurhidayu, S., Shabir, Y., Nakamura, T., and Tsujimura, M.: Relationship Between Nitrate Sources and Tropical Land Use in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7748, 2025.

EGU25-8819 | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Role of Soil and Bedrock Layers on Water Storage in a Vegetated Alpine Headwater under the Asian Monsoon Climate 

Kazune Tani, Koichi Sakakibara, Masahiro Hirota, Maki Tsujimura, Mayu Fujino, and Keisuke Suzuki

The alpine zone has been considered to have poor water storage. However, recent studies have shown that alpine vegetated areas possess water storage function. But differences in the water storage between soil and bedrock and the processes of the runoff of stored water are still not clear. Therefore, we aimed to make clear the water storage functions of alpine vegetation areas by focusing on runoff processes of groundwater. We conducted field surveys from July to October 2023 on Mt. Norikura (3,026 m), a stratovolcano in central area of Japan. These were conducted in two adjacent catchments with differing land cover types: a bare area covered with debris and a vegetated area covered with soil and dominated by Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila). During the study period, we monitored water levels in streams and precipitation within both areas. Additionally, biweekly field surveys were conducted to measure water temperature, pH, and electrical conductivity (EC) for precipitation, snowmelt water, stream water, and spring water, as well as to collect water samples. We analyzed them for the oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratios, the concentrations of major dissolved inorganic ions, SiO2, and radon (Rn-222). The radon concentration was measured by liquid scintillation counter. The stream in the bare area dried up after the snowmelt season whereas that in the vegetated area gradually decreased and did not dry up throughout the study period. In the δ-diagram of oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratios, spring water from the bare area plotted along the local meteoric water line (LMWL), while spring water from the vegetated area plotted with a gentler slope than the LMWL. This result indicates that the spring water in the vegetated area is influenced by evaporation from canopy interception. In the vegetated area, the concentrations of major dissolved inorganic ions (particularly SO₄), SiO₂, and radon in the spring water were all higher than those in the bare area. This indicates that spring water undergoes ion exchange with clay minerals and SO4 leaching from volcanic sulfide minerals, indicating a longer and deeper flow path compared to bare spring water. Additionally, the spring water in the vegetated area has no large fluctuation in water temperature, concentration of major dissolved inorganic ions, SiO2, and radon. This indicates the contribution of groundwater from the bedrock layer. The spring water in the vegetated area, a largely negative correlation was observed between discharge and radon concentration, while only a weak correlation was found between SiO2 and discharge. This indicates that groundwater from the bedrock layer passed through the soil layer, allowing radon to undergo gas exchange with the gas phase. These results indicate that in the bare area, the coarse-grained sediment structure allows rainfall to quickly reach the bedrock surface and flow out rapidly over the bedrock. However, in the vegetated area, the developed soil restricts rainfall runoff. This likely promotes groundwater recharge into the bedrock layer, forming an aquifer and indicates a water storage function.

How to cite: Tani, K., Sakakibara, K., Hirota, M., Tsujimura, M., Fujino, M., and Suzuki, K.: Role of Soil and Bedrock Layers on Water Storage in a Vegetated Alpine Headwater under the Asian Monsoon Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8819, 2025.

EGU25-9827 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.2

Seasonal origin of water in a high-elevation grassland: insights from a modelling approach using a snow isotope model and HYDRUS-1D  

Alessio Gentile, Stefano Brighenti, Giulia Zuecco, Davide Gisolo, Davide Canone, Tanzeel Hamza, and Stefano Ferraris

Soil and xylem water samples are increasingly collected for isotope analysis to study the movement of water within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in alpine ecosystems. However, the low sampling frequency, mainly due to severe winter weather conditions and impervious topography, remains a significant obstacle for building a comprehensive, data-driven understanding of hydrological processes in high-elevation environments.

This study focuses on integrating a newly proposed snow isotope model with HYDRUS-1D to simulate the movement of water and isotopes through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in a mountain grassland at 2550 m a.s.l. in the Aosta Valley, northwest Italy. While uncertainties remain regarding the timing and distribution of infiltration during snowmelt and variations in snow isotopic composition, the combined modeling approach successfully reproduces patterns of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and isotope behavior at the site.

A key finding is the seasonal origin of water: winter-derived water (i.e., snowmelt) primarily contributes to groundwater recharge through soil percolation, while summer-derived water (i.e., rainfall) dominates plants transpiration. Evidence supporting this seasonal pattern comes also from observed isotope dynamics in both the monitored spring water and xylem water. Notably, during the 2022 drought, the ecosystem relied more heavily on winter-origin water to support evapotranspiration, providing a glimpse into how such systems might adapt to future conditions with higher temperatures and reduced snowfall.

 

This work was supported by the NODES project, funded under MUR – M4C2 1.5 of the PNRR with resources from the European Union - NextGenerationEU (Grant agreement no. ECS00000036), as well as the MUR PRIN project SUNSET (202295PFKP_003).

How to cite: Gentile, A., Brighenti, S., Zuecco, G., Gisolo, D., Canone, D., Hamza, T., and Ferraris, S.: Seasonal origin of water in a high-elevation grassland: insights from a modelling approach using a snow isotope model and HYDRUS-1D , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9827, 2025.

EGU25-9924 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

The Role of Stream Water Isotopes in Integrated Hydrological Model Calibration and Flowpath Identification 

Omar Ashraf Nimr, Hannu Marttila, and Pertti Ala-Aho

In hydrological modeling, multiple combinations of parameter sets can alter catchment processes and local velocities, while still achieving the same overall streamflow (i.e., celerity), underscoring the equifinality theorem. Improving model calibration by incorporating new dimensions of information helps narrow down the range of viable models, leading to a more accurate representation of system behavior. This study investigates how different combinations of hydrometric and isotopic cross-output targets—including groundwater levels (GWL), streamflow rates (Q), and stream stable water isotopic compositions (δ18O)—influence parameter sensitivity patterns, calibration processes, and subsequently inform the dominant flowpath of the system. The research was conducted on the Pallas sub-arctic catchment in northern Finland using HydroGeoSphere (HGS), the fully integrated, physically based hydrological model. The study employed a workflow consisting of global sensitivity analysis (SA), automated parameter estimation (PE), and parameter uncertainty analysis (UA), assisted by PEST++, across multiple scenarios targeting different combinations of observables (GWL, Q, and δ18O).

The SA results showed that a combined target of isotopic (δ¹⁸O) and hydrometric data (GWL + Q) produced similar sensitivity patterns to targeting stream isotopes alone (δ18O), underscoring the crucial role of isotopes in constraining system behavior. UA results revealed that models calibrated with both hydrometric and isotopic data (Q, GWL, and δ18O) yielded the narrowest parameter uncertainty bounds, followed by the isotope-only calibration. The hydrometric-only calibration (Q and GWL) exhibited the widest uncertainty range, highlighting the role of isotope data in constraining parameter distributions, and correspondingly reducing model forecast uncertainty.

While models with different calibration targets showed similar performance in streamflow rates, stages, and isotope composition across various hydrograph stages, water balance analysis revealed variations in internal processes and flowpaths. Ground surface water partitioning (e.g., infiltration rates) was consistent across setups, but subsurface processes differed notably. Models calibrated with isotope data exhibited greater groundwater recharge via rapid deep percolation, facilitated by enhanced soil water–groundwater connectivity. While Other setups showed minimal groundwater recharge and increased soil water storage. Incorporating isotopic data emphasized vertical flowpaths essential for matching isotope observations, altering subsurface water partitioning and storage dynamics.

Isotope-enabled calibration in fully integrated physically based models enhances flowpath representation, narrows plausible parameter combinations, and provides more constrained prediction envelopes, offering a robust approach for reliably informing sustainable water management strategies.

How to cite: Nimr, O. A., Marttila, H., and Ala-Aho, P.: The Role of Stream Water Isotopes in Integrated Hydrological Model Calibration and Flowpath Identification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9924, 2025.

Atmospheric chloride deposition (ACD) is an essential parameter in estimating potential groundwater recharge. However, ACD observations are still limited to a few sparsely distributed sites and/or short time intervals, which are insufficient to characterize regional distribution over a longer time scale, putting into limitation the usefulness of the easily accessible environmental chloride method for tracking groundwater dynamics in future studies. Considering the mass balance between chloride input from precipitation and soil Cl storage in the unsaturated zone, we combined 3H- and Cl-based tracing techniques to inversely reconstruct the long-term average or historical time series of ACD from the Cl stored in soil profiles. Our results highlight the proposed methods can effectively exclude fertilization impacts and perform satisfactorily in estimating ACD. However climatic and geographic factors had should be taken seriously when reconstructing ACD. A better understanding of groundwater recharge in unsaturated zones is ultimately critical for water resource management, especially in semi-arid environments with deep soils.

How to cite: Huang, Y., Ji, W., and Li, Z.: Reconstructing Atmospheric Chloride Deposition Using Chloride-Tritium Tracers Stored in Deep Loess, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10100, 2025.

EGU25-10533 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Hydrogeochemistry of thermal waters in the intermountain basin of the Tien Shan Region 

Ekaterina Baranovskaya, Natalia Kharitonova, and George Chelnokov

This study presents new data on the chemical composition, content, and distribution patterns of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in natural waters from the Issyk-Kul intermountain artesian basin. This area has significant balneological potential due to the abundance of mineral waters with diverse temperatures, chemical and gas compositions, and total dissolved solids (TDS). The uniqueness of this region lies in the coexistence of two distinct types of mineral waters: fissure-pore waters confined to intermountain artesian basins and fissure-vein waters associated with tectonic fault zones in rock massifs.

The study is based on field research conducted in the Issyk-Kul basin, located in the Tien Shan region. The temperature of mineral waters at the sampling sites varies widely (16.2-52.3°C), as does TDS, which depends on the hydrogeological structure. CO₂-rich waters with low TDS (0.3-0.5 g/L) form within rocks and open fractures, while carbon dioxide-nitrogen or nitrogen-methane waters with TDS ranging from 2.0 to 35.0 g/L are associated with significant sedimentary cover thickness. A common pattern in anion composition is observed, as all mineral waters contain sulfate (SO₄²⁻) and chloride (Cl⁻) ions. Sodium (Na⁺) consistently predominates in the cationic composition.

The content of stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δD) in the studied waters also varies significantly, from -13.9‰ to -8.5‰ for δ18O and from -95.8‰ to -66.0‰ for δD. Most data points on the δ18O-δD binary diagram align with the global meteoric water line, indicating an infiltration origin with a pronounced altitude effect.

It was also established that the trace element composition of thermal waters serves as a marker for the hydrogeological conditions of their formation and circulation: waters from the sedimentary cover of intermountain artesian basins are enriched with Sr, Ba, Mn, B, Mo, and U, whereas waters from rocky massifs contain elevated concentrations of F, Rb, W, and Sc. The calculation of the water migration coefficient revealed a dependence of the accumulation rate of trace components on the type of host formation and the hydrogeological conditions of water formation.

Ion-salt geothermometers were applied to estimate the deep formation temperatures of the mineral waters, revealing a broad range of values (21.4-144.8°C). These results reflect diverse formation conditions for the studied waters.

How to cite: Baranovskaya, E., Kharitonova, N., and Chelnokov, G.: Hydrogeochemistry of thermal waters in the intermountain basin of the Tien Shan Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10533, 2025.

EGU25-15536 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Radionuclides as natural tracers of the groundwater flow systems in the thermal karst system of Budapest, Hungary  

Fanni Bujbáczi, Lili Balczó, Ákos Horváth, Katalin Hegedűs-Csondor, Eleonora Bena, Zsóka Szabó, Andrea Szűcs, Eszter Tihanyi-Szép, Nóra Gál, Teodóra Szőcs, György Falus, and Anita Erőss

Global changes are increasingly pushing for more sustainable resources, such as geothermal energy. The thermal waters of the karst system in Budapest (Hungary) have so far been used mainly for balneological purposes. It is thus expected that in the near future they will more intensely be used for geothermal purposes as well. To this end, a comprehensive research project has been launched by the Geological Survey of the Supervisory Authority for Regulatory Affairs to gain a better understanding of the system and to assess the impact of future projects via numerical simulations. One task of this research was to perform a geochemical water sampling campaign to gain simultaneous geochemical results and characterize a baseline. In this project, also the most abundant natural radioactive isotopes in groundwater, uranium, radium and radon were measured, which were previously successfully used in the natural discharge areas to characterize fluids of different flow paths. Now, these natural tracers were applied in the entire regional study area. 

Liquid scintillation technique was used to measure the activity concentration of radon. For radium and uranium, an innovative method, selectively adsorbing Nucfilm discs measured by alpha spectrometry was applied.  

Based on the first results, the radon content in water samples was either below the detection limit or less than 40 Bq/L. However, 284 Bq/L activity concentration was measured in one location, which is high compared to the 100 Bq/L value for drinking water. Fluid mixing was hypothesized here. 

Uranium activity concentrations were also low (8-17 mBq/l), which is associated with the mostly reductive conditions of the sampled groundwater. The reducing environment of higher order flow paths is confirmed by our sampling results by the measured higher radium contents. The radium content of the samples ranged from 10 to 1823 mBq/L. The highest radium content was found in sample BPGT-08, which with its high dissolved solid content suggests the presence of waters with a long groundwater residence time and a possible connection with organic matter (hydrocarbons). The other radium activities show similar values to those measured by previous studies in the region. For two water wells, we contributed to the interpretation of the total alpha measurements by measuring the activity concentrations of radium and uranium as alpha decay radionuclides. Our measurements allowed for the characterisation of groundwater flow systems, the identification of different geochemical environments and possible fluid mixing.  

How to cite: Bujbáczi, F., Balczó, L., Horváth, Á., Hegedűs-Csondor, K., Bena, E., Szabó, Z., Szűcs, A., Tihanyi-Szép, E., Gál, N., Szőcs, T., Falus, G., and Erőss, A.: Radionuclides as natural tracers of the groundwater flow systems in the thermal karst system of Budapest, Hungary , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15536, 2025.

EGU25-15918 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.2

Validation of water transit traced by a distributed hydrological model using a geochemical end-member mixing approach 

Nico Hachgenei, Flora Branger, Guillaume Nord, Matthieu Masson, Cédric Legout, Clothilde Perron, Céline Duwig, Lorenzo Spadini, and Marina Coquery

Knowing not only quantities but also pathways of water through a catchment is crucial for an in-depth understanding of hydrological processes. This is particularly true when aiming to understand the pathways of pollutants in the environment. We use a geochemical end-member mixing approach to validate the water transfer predicted by a process-based distributed hydrological model (J2000) developed over the Claduègne rural mesoscale catchment (42 km²) under Mediterranean climate. This hydrological model represents explicitly the heterogeneity of the catchment through hydrologic response units, including 6 land cover and 4 lithology classes. It also includes a detailed representation of human activity (drinking water extraction, wastewater effluent discharge, urban overland flow, irrigation, livestock breeding). It was calibrated on streamflow discharge at three hydrometric stations throughout the catchment. It tracks water volumes through the catchment by spatial origin and four different flow processes (overland flow, subsurface storm flow; and slow and rapid groundwater flow). The mixing model distinguishes water originating from six end-members, including subsurface water from two types of lithology (sedimentary [sed] vs. basaltic [bas]) and two classes of land cover (crop and pasture [open] vs. shrubland and forest [closed]) as well as overland flow [OF] and urban sources. Each end-member was characterized by dissolved concentration of 47 elements in water samples collected at different locations and under various hydrological conditions (97 samples in total), quantified via Inductively Coupled Plasma - Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS).

End-member signatures were repeatedly drawn from Weibull distributions fitted to samples for each end-member. Non-negative mixing contributions were optimized in order to represent measured concentrations at the outlet. Only draws resulting in a sum of contributions of 100 % (±5 %) were kept; the average of the 100 best drawn combinations (least residuals) was used as final contribution. The end-member mixing model was applied to 256 samples taken at high frequency (up to 2 h-1) during flood events (14 and 4 events at the Claduègne and Gazel outlets, respectively), in addition to low-flow samples collected at different seasons.

The contribution of overland flow was zero most of the time and peaked during flood events, with proportions up to 80-90 %. The urban contribution was mostly below 10 %, with some higher values during low flow periods.

Results were compared to tracking results from the hydrological model, run at an hourly time step. Direct per-sample correlations between the two models had the following pearson R values: urban: 0.60, OF: 0.52, sed closed: 0.54, sed open: 0.41, bas closed: 0.23, bas open: 0.31. All were significant with p<0.05, except bas closed (p<0.1). In a more qualitative way, the two models agreed on patterns over the course of flood events and over the seasons, as well as contribution-discharge relationships. We demonstrated that these two independent approaches produce coherent results, validating the hydrological model’s representation of water transit through the catchment.

How to cite: Hachgenei, N., Branger, F., Nord, G., Masson, M., Legout, C., Perron, C., Duwig, C., Spadini, L., and Coquery, M.: Validation of water transit traced by a distributed hydrological model using a geochemical end-member mixing approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15918, 2025.

EGU25-16058 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Impact of Terrestrial Hydrology on L-A feedback and Isotope Signatures 

Hannah Sill, Joël Arnault, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann

Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a crucial role in current as well as future weather and climate. Since the resulting feedback mechanisms depend on L-A water pathways a sound understanding of the hereto related processes is required to depict them realistically in models and to further improve model performance. Stable water isotopes fungate as natural indicators of the hydrological cycle and can hence be used to assess the performance of climate models by comparing observational data with modeled isotope data.

Therefore, the fully coupled atmospheric hydrological modeling system WRF-Hydro-Iso with its innovative “-Iso” implementation is appropriate. Tracing water pathways with WRF-Hydro-Iso, we aim to improve our understanding of the relationship and interactions between groundwater, soil moisture, plant transpiration, soil evaporation, isotope signature and L-A feedback.

For a project domain in central Europe with a 5 km resolution the forcing data of ERA5 reanalysis and iCESM isotope climatology is used. In this session, first results of the WRF-Hydro-Iso modeled isotopes and L-A interactions are presented. The modeled isotopes are assessed with the TROPOMI atmospheric water Deuterium dataset, while L-A interactions are assessed with terrestrial water budgets and isotopic signatures of the water budget components.

How to cite: Sill, H., Arnault, J., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Impact of Terrestrial Hydrology on L-A feedback and Isotope Signatures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16058, 2025.

EGU25-16589 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.2

The Unconstrainable Tails of Catchment Transit Time Distributions 

Raphaël Miazza and Paolo Benettin

Water transit times are key indicators of how catchments store and release water, as well as tracers and contaminants. Water exiting a catchment is characterized by a transit time distribution (TTD), which reflects the variability of flow paths and the mixing of individual water parcels before reaching the stream. Since TTDs cannot be measured directly, they are typically inferred from time series of tracers in precipitation and streamflow. However, not all water carries the same information, as streamflow TTDs usually consist of a narrow range of young waters that contribute significantly to streamflow, while a much broader range of older waters accounts for only a small stream water fraction. The concern is that the tracer signal from these older waters may be masked by measurement uncertainties, making it difficult to accurately capture the right tail of the transit time distribution and thus to determine the age of the oldest waters in streamflow. Previous studies suggest that seasonally variable tracers such as oxygen-18 (18O) cannot help inferring water ages beyond 4–5 years, whereas tritium (3H) may extend this limit up to 100 years. However, these results rely on limited theoretical evidence, which calls for more in-depth investigation.

In this study, we investigate the maximum age up to which the shape of the transit time distribution can be reliably constrained before the signal of the oldest waters becomes completely hidden among measurement uncertainties. Our analysis covers a wide range of typical transit time distribution shapes and two key tracers: 18O and 3H. Our results indicate that water with transit times longer than 1–3 years does not typically produce detectable variations in the 18O signal, while for 3H, this limit extends further, but unlikely beyond 10 years. This suggests that the maximum age that can be accurately estimated using these tracers is significantly lower than previously assumed. Furthermore, we show that this age limit has important implications for estimating mean transit times, as the tail of the transit time distribution strongly influences this metric. Our findings highlight the need for a more cautious interpretation of TTD tails and encourages the use of alternative statistics beyond mean transit times to characterize TTDs across catchments.

How to cite: Miazza, R. and Benettin, P.: The Unconstrainable Tails of Catchment Transit Time Distributions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16589, 2025.

EGU25-16623 | Orals | HS2.2.2

Daily atmospheric precipitation stable water isotopes help disentangling water flow paths and sources at a long-term limnological research station  

Astrid Harjung, Daniela Machado, Hannes Hager, Coulson Laura, Attermeyer Katrin, Terzer-Wassmuth Stefan, Vystavna Yuliya, Martin Kainz, and Leonard Wassenaar

A better understanding of the hydrological dynamics of aquatic ecosystems is of vital importance for assessing their ecological functions and predicting their responses to climate change. Hydrology has been shown in several studies to be a major driver of ecosystem processes in the catchment of Lake Lunz, which is part of the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network. Stable isotopes of the water molecule (δ18O-H2O and δ2H-H2O) are a valuable tool for understanding water flow and temporal dynamics in complex, karstic catchments. Using stable isotopes, we complemented an ongoing monitoring program that samples the lake catchment and initiated a daily precipitation sampling scheme. Our objective is to examine the insights achievable from daily sampling of precipitation regarding stream hydrology. The study site is a subalpine, karstic catchment of 18 km2, overlaid with shallow soils. The data that will be discussed in this presentation covers the period from October 2021 to October 2024 spanning three hydrological years. We collected daily and monthly precipitation samples in the proximity to the outlet of the catchment (elevation 604 m.a.s.l.) and stream grab samples within the regular monitoring programme.

The outcomes of the daily stable precipitation isotope analysis revealed that the widest range in precipitation occurs during winter, with values ranging from -17 to -2.8‰ for δ18O-H2O. Conversely, the most depleted precipitation daily sample was measured during a major rain event in September 2024 with -21‰ for δ18O-H2O. River grab samples reflected the average catchment precipitation ± 1‰ that was calculated based on isoscapes for δ18O-H2O. Several heavy rain events were recorded with depleted isotope ratios. A three-component hydrograph separation suggested that recent water contributes between 10 and 50% to the stream flow and high precipitation events shifted the isotopic composition of the river. However, d-excess indicated that these events contributed little to base flow and groundwater recharge. Daily precipitation isotopes improved hydrograph separation based on stable isotopes, providing the opportunity to understand the contribution of different precipitation events to base flow.

Incorporating stable water isotopes into routine monitoring of the Lake Lunz catchment presents a significant potential to understand the water sources and their temporal dynamics. This offers an opportunity to place the ecological studies conducted in Lake Lunz within a hydrological framework and better comprehend how the system might respond to climate change impacts, including river intermittency, extreme rainfall events, decreased winter precipitation, and the thawing of the snow cover during winter.

How to cite: Harjung, A., Machado, D., Hager, H., Laura, C., Katrin, A., Stefan, T.-W., Yuliya, V., Kainz, M., and Wassenaar, L.: Daily atmospheric precipitation stable water isotopes help disentangling water flow paths and sources at a long-term limnological research station , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16623, 2025.

EGU25-17865 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Isotope-aided hydrological modeling to enhance process understanding in high-latitude catchments 

Andrea Popp, David Gustafsson, Cristian Gudasz, Charlotta Pers, Mohamed Ismaiel Ahmed, Jude Musuuza, Jan Karlsson, Hjalmar Laudon, and Tricia Stadnyk

High-latitude regions are challenging to model due to their inherent data scarcity. This limitation hampers our ability to gain robust process understanding and forecast how these regions will respond to global warming and land-use changes. Additionally, these regions are undergoing rapid changes driven by melting snow and ice with far-reaching implications for downstream areas.

In this study, we demonstrate the value of isotope-aided hydrological modeling in improving process understanding and model reliability. Using data from two well-instrumented high-latitude catchments—the Krycklan Catchment Study and Abisko in Sweden—we developed detailed hydrological models in HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment). We applied a multi-objective calibration approach that includes stable isotopes of water alongside traditional flow data for model calibration and validation. This approach enhances the robustness of model-internal water source partitioning and provides additional insights beyond flow-only calibration.

This work is part of the Water4All project ISOSCAN, which investigates how stable isotopes of water, collected through Citizen Science initiatives, can advance hydrological modeling. By comparing flow-only calibrated models with isotope-aided multi-objective calibrated models, we evaluate the contribution of stable isotopes in improving model performance. We explore the potential of high-information-content data (such as stable isotopes of water) collected by Citizen Scientists to overcome data scarcity challenges and enhance the reliability of hydrological models in high-latitude regions.

How to cite: Popp, A., Gustafsson, D., Gudasz, C., Pers, C., Ahmed, M. I., Musuuza, J., Karlsson, J., Laudon, H., and Stadnyk, T.: Isotope-aided hydrological modeling to enhance process understanding in high-latitude catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17865, 2025.

EGU25-18903 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Using Information Theory to Optimize Sampling of Isotope Tracers for Transit Time Estimation 

Fatemeh Babaei, Meenakshi Arora, Heye Bogena, Andrew Western, and Julian Klaus

Tracer-based approaches play a crucial role in advancing our understanding of hydrological processes, particularly in determining catchment transit time distributions (TTDs). TTDs describe the distribution of water ages in fluxes leaving a catchment, providing critical insights into flow paths, storage, and transformation processes. Despite the value of these analyses, applying tracer-based methods often remains challenging due to the high costs and practical difficulties associated with comprehensive sampling strategies. Multi-tracer approaches are particularly valuable because different tracers (e.g., stable isotopes and tritium) provide additional information of catchment transit times, enabling more comprehensive system characterization. In this presentation, we present a methodological approach to assess the optimization of sampling strategies for tracer-based TTD modeling using isotopic data and the SAS (StorAge Selection) framework trough an information-theoretic approach. In this context, sampling design refers to the systematic evaluation of the informational contribution of individual samples and their combinations in estimating transit time distributions (TTDs). Specifically, we quantify the information content of individual tracer samples, assess how different combinations of samples collectively enhance the accuracy of TTD estimations, and evaluate and present the effectiveness of different sampling strategies. Additionally, we compare the information content of different tracers (e.g., deuterium and tritium) with SAS-based transit time models and evaluate how each tracer improves the precision of TTD predictions. The tested sampling strategies included baseline and event-based strategies. Our approach builds on recent advancements in hydrological theory, including the use of multi-tracer methods and the SAS framework. The results will provide a detailed comparison of the information content of different samples, tracers, and sampling designs, highlighting the relative contribution of deuterium and tritium to inform TTD analysis. The results from this study will contribute to informing hydrological field campaigns by providing guidelines on optimal sampling strategies for TTDs estimation. By that, guidelines for optimal sampling protocols for information gain balanced with cost for field work can be developed in the future. The findings will promote the broader application of tracer-based methods in hydrology, offering practical solutions for data-scarce environments and enhancing sustainable water management practices.

How to cite: Babaei, F., Arora, M., Bogena, H., Western, A., and Klaus, J.: Using Information Theory to Optimize Sampling of Isotope Tracers for Transit Time Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18903, 2025.

EGU25-21804 | Posters on site | HS2.2.2

Small head water contributions in a heterogenous watershed of the Connecticut River Valley 

Christian Guzman, Raul Vera, and Tim Nsubuga

Headwater streams in valleys comprise land surfaces with deep flow paths as well as impervious surfaces where urban centers have developed strategically near water. The impaired Mill River Watershed discharges into the Connecticut River of the Northeastern US after flowing through heterogenous land-uses in a valley system. In this study, we young water fractions across from watershed sources contributing to the CR as well as to Lake Warner. We compare theses dynamics and the inuence of urban, agricultural, and rural land use from May 2021 to November 2024, on the young water fraction (Fyw ) and mean transit times (MTT) using stable water isotopes (δ 2H, δ 17O, and δ 18O) across 13 sites (collected monthly) within the Lake Warner-Mill River watershed (LWMRW) of the Connecticut River Valley. In addition, we monitored 3 storms in Spring, Summer, and Fall to determine proportions of stream pre-event flow that coincides with pollutants such as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Finally, we performed synoptic sampling at 33 sites between and just after storm to further compare the spatial expression on flow across the network. The local meteoric water line for the 3.25 years of collected data was δ H = 7.5 δ O+ 9.5 (n=254), with high variability of the precipitation isotopes mean stable water isotope composition of -7.3 per mille (oxygen-18, δ O) and standard deviation (SD) of 3.7 per mille.  For the monthly surface water collected data, mean results were similar.  Forested sites had mean of -7.92 per mille (SD = 0.53), urban sites -7.69 per mille (SD = 0.88), and agricultural sites -7.57 per mille (SD = 0.74). Correspondingly, Fyw was 0.17 (rural), 0.29 (urban), and 0.24 (agricultural), with rural sites having the longest MTT (327 days) and urban sites having the shortest MTT (189 days). Mean transit times for forested sites declined in value as mean O18 of the streams increased, however there was no trend for urban sites. During the three storm events, a high proportion of pre-event flow was determined to contribute to the hydrograph. In September 2024, this transported over 3 mg/L DOC at its peak. Interestingly, the synoptic showed the most enriched samples across the 33 sites in late fall rather than mid-summer sampling. This work contributes to efforts at better understanding the hydrological dynamics of the watershed network and its heterogeneous contributions to Lake Warner and the Connecticut River.

How to cite: Guzman, C., Vera, R., and Nsubuga, T.: Small head water contributions in a heterogenous watershed of the Connecticut River Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21804, 2025.

EGU25-1066 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.4

Revealing the interrelation among eco-hydro-meteorological variables in a forested Mediterranean catchment 

Ilenia Murgia, Konstantinos Kaffas, Matteo Verdone, Francesca Sofia Manca di Villahermosa, Andrea Dani, Federico Preti, Catalina Segura, Christian Massari, and Daniele Penna

Eco-hydro-meteorological variables (EHM) are key indicators for assessing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, affecting hydrological processes and the resilience of forest systems. Meteorological forcing, such as precipitation and vapor pressure deficit, notably determines soil moisture variability, strongly related to tree transpiration and sap flow rate. In turn, soil moisture is affected by tree uptake. Understanding the feedback among these variables is crucial for effectively managing water resources and more robust predictions of the effect of climate change-induced droughts. However, few works have been conducted to disentangle the feedback of EHMs over time, frequency, and space domains in mountain forested catchments, especially in the Mediterranean region. To fill this gap, wavelet transform and coherence analysis were applied to investigate physical processes and their interaction in time and frequency domains.

We monitored EHMs for two years in a small sub-catchment (0.31 km2) of the Re della Pietra experimental catchment, Central Italy. The elevation and slope of the sub-catchment are about 940 m a.s.l and 36°, respectively, with a geological substrate of sandstones that promotes the development of well-drained sandy loam soils with a depth larger than 50-80 cm. The area is classified as a temperate Mediterranean climate with annual averages of 1300 mm for rainfall and 10.5 °C for temperature. The vegetation cover consists of pure beech forest. We monitored climatic variables with a weather station in the upper part of the sub-catchment, while soil moisture and sap flow variation were collected at different positions along a steep hillslope. We performed wavelet transform analysis to explore the EHMs variability over time, frequency, and space, while through wavelet coherence, we investigated the conditions and factors that influence the feedback dynamics of EHMs. 

Wavelet transform analysis highlights significant rainy periods exceeding the 1024-h frequency and a strong vapor pressure deficit seasonality, defining the alternation between dry and wet seasons. Soil moisture variability at the bottom slope position significantly differs from the upslope and midslope, and recovery periods following the dry season are more evident in the upperslope position than in the middle. High power values for sap flow at 12/24-h frequencies, revealing the daily tree transpiration, differ for the investigated positions. Wavelet coherence analysis remarks differences depending on the hillslope position. High coherence values between sapflow and soil moisture are shown for frequencies between 12/24-h for most of the tree growing season, with soil moisture driving sap flow. However, in the upslope position, the early stop of tree transpiration caused by sharply reduced soil moisture resulted in low coherence values. High coherence values are also highlighted for frequencies larger than 24-h, showing the sap flow leading to soil moisture. Sap flow strongly correlates with vapor pressure deficit in all frequencies of the monitored period, while coherence with precipitation is significant only for frequencies greater than 64-h.

Through the application of wavelet analysis, this study presents an in-depth investigation of the complex relationships between eco-hydro-meteorological dynamics in forest catchments.

How to cite: Murgia, I., Kaffas, K., Verdone, M., Manca di Villahermosa, F. S., Dani, A., Preti, F., Segura, C., Massari, C., and Penna, D.: Revealing the interrelation among eco-hydro-meteorological variables in a forested Mediterranean catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1066, 2025.

Studying hydrological responses to rainfall events at the catchment scale is a foundational approach to understanding water and solute mobilization processes because it provides insights into the runoff generation mechanisms. These responses are reflected not only in variations in stream discharge, but also in shifts in groundwater tables, particularly within hydrologically connected near-stream riparian zones. In this context, cross-ecoregional comparisons offer additional value as they can identify both shared and distinct drivers of hydrological responses to rainfall events across diverse system settings. We analysed rainfall events in four forest headwater catchments spanning four different ecoregions: boreal, temperate, subhumid Mediterranean, and semiarid Mediterranean. We aim to evaluate the role of hydroclimatic predictors, including rainfall event characteristics and antecedent hydroclimate (e.g. soil moisture) conditions, in shaping hydrological responses. These responses include variations in stream discharge and riparian groundwater table, as well as the relationship between these two variables, with particular attention to hysteresis patterns. Our results show that drier antecedent soil moisture was linked to anticlockwise hysteresis loops, where stream discharge responded faster than riparian groundwater tables to rainfall events. This observation was particularly prominent at the temperate site. Furthermore, distinct hydrological response patterns at the Mediterranean sites emerged only during larger events, while the responses observed at the boreal and temperate sites remained consistent regardless of storm size. We will discuss these and further findings in the context of hydrological connectivity, wetness state, and the hydrological conductivity of the riparian layers activated during rainfall events. This approach has the potential to offer valuable insights for both scientific assessments and the management of land-water connectivity across ecoregions with contrasting hydroclimates.

How to cite: Ledesma, J. L. J., Bernal, S., and Musolff, A.: Drivers of stream and riparian hydrological responses to rainfall events in forest headwater catchments across ecoregions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2243, 2025.

EGU25-2953 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.4

Exploring celerity–velocity differences in headwater catchments across scales 

Zach Perzan and Hannes Bauser

Hydrologists have long recognized that stream discharge responds almost instantaneously to rainfall or snowmelt events in headwater catchments, even though the water that comprises the discharge may be years or decades old. This rapid mobilization of old water arises from the difference between the celerity (or rate of pressure propagation) and velocity (or rate of water movement) of a wetting front through the subsurface. The ratio of celerity to velocity, known as the kinematic ratio, can vary multiple orders of magnitude between catchments — and across different storm events within the same catchment — but the underlying mechanisms that control variations in kinematic ratio remain poorly understood. 

To address this knowledge gap, we present a series of experimentally constrained hydrologic simulations that investigate how watershed properties (e.g., depth to the water table and aquifer transmissivity) and system states (e.g., antecedent soil moisture) control differences in celerity and velocity at the plot, hillslope, and catchment scales. Simulation results are validated against rainfall–runoff experiments that use isotopic tracers to measure residence time. Global sensitivity analyses reveal that, at the plot scale, the kinematic ratio of a wetting front through the vadose zone is predominantly controlled by antecedent water content. At the hillslope and catchment scales, this relationship becomes more complex and largely depends on depth to the water table and aquifer transmissivity. This work provides new insights into the subsurface controls on subsurface flow and pressure propagation, with implications for understanding the hydrologic behavior of catchments during storm events and resultant impacts on water quality.

How to cite: Perzan, Z. and Bauser, H.: Exploring celerity–velocity differences in headwater catchments across scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2953, 2025.

EGU25-3998 | Orals | HS2.2.4

The concept of the water storage continuum to increase ecohydrological resilience of mesoscale catchments 

Doerthe Tetzlaff, Hjalmar Laudon, and Chris Soulsby

Subsurface storage is inherently difficult to quantify, but strongly affect the ecohydrological resilience of landscapes, which can be defined as the degree to which catchment can maintain key aspects of physical functionality in terms of water resource provisioning and biomass production in response to climatic and other stressors such as drought. These functions, and in particular storage dynamcis, are commonly studied in small-scale experimental settings, at larger regional scales or from purely modelling perspectives. To move the field forward, we urgently need to better characterise and quantify the 3-dimensional water storage continuum at mesoscale catchment (101-102 km2), as its this scale which is most tangible and relevant for land managers, and where physical process-based evidence can still be obtained to understand how sensitivities change between zones of deficit and storage during periods of drought. We present findings from a long-term, drought sensitive experimental catchment in Germany. We integrated extensive hydrometric and water stable isotope approaches into tracer-aided modelling to quantify spatial and temporal storage dynamics. We argue that a spatially distributed understanding of how underlying ecohydrological processes affect drought evolution at the mesoscale is fundamental for future assessment of water storage dynamics, water availability and provision of wider ecosystem services in a changing climate. As such, this proposed approach can form science-based evidence for new concepts on the regulation of catchment ecosystem services and help building societal resilience to droughts.

 

How to cite: Tetzlaff, D., Laudon, H., and Soulsby, C.: The concept of the water storage continuum to increase ecohydrological resilience of mesoscale catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3998, 2025.

EGU25-5555 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Spatiotemporal Dynamic and Drivers of Baseflow Index in Taiwan’s Catchments 

Hsin-Yu Chen and Hsin-Fu Yeh

The (sub-)surface hydrological processes vary over time and space, and the Baseflow Index (BFI) which is used to characterize aquifer discharge and river sustainability is no exception. BFI is defined as the proportion of stable baseflow come from aquifers to the total streamflow. Previous studies have constructed various models based on climatic and geomorphological characteristics to estimate the BFI, aiming to identify key driving factors and predict hydrological behavior in ungauged regions. However, these studies have two primary limitations: (1) they represent a catchment relied on a single long-term BFI, overlooking inter-annual variability, and (2) they utilized global models that assume constant responses of all catchments to factors. To address these limitations, this study compiled a panel data of 2,953 samples, comprising BFI, climate, and geomorphological characteristics of catchments from 60 gauging stations with more than 30 years of daily streamflow records in Taiwan. The identification of factors through correlation analysis and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model. The results of the spatiotemporal dynamics revealed that the BFI of most stations exhibited a significant increasing trend, as well as notable positive spatial autocorrelation. Model comparisons indicated that the GTWR model outperformed the GWR and OLS models with lower AICc. Moreover, the inclusion or exclusion of spatiotemporal heterogeneity may lead to contradictory outcomes in driving factor identification. Correlation analysis without heterogeneity showed that elevation had the strongest negative correlation with BFI. However, the GTWR model indicated that almost all factors exhibited bi-directional influences on BFI varying across time and space. The importance of elevation was not significant in GTWR. Additionally, the rainfall intensity is the only one-way factor that had a negative influence on BFI. This study underscores the influence of climatic and geomorphological factors on BFI exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Neglecting spatiotemporal heterogeneity could lead to overestimation or underestimation of the importance of factors. The findings provide valuable insights into other hydrological processes and highlight the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis in catchment process and groundwater resource assessments.

How to cite: Chen, H.-Y. and Yeh, H.-F.: Spatiotemporal Dynamic and Drivers of Baseflow Index in Taiwan’s Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5555, 2025.

EGU25-8592 | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Exploring Hydrogeological Reciprocity: A Case Study in Temporal and Spatial Variability 

Zi-Jun Hsu, Hong-Ru Lin, and Jet-Chau Wen

Past research on the hydrogeological parameters of the local aquifer has rarely utilized sequential pumping test (SPT) drawdown data collected from multiple tests at the same experimental site to comprehensively characterize the distribution fields of transmissivity (𝑇) and storage coefficient (S), as well as their reciprocity. To address this gap, this study aims to collect sequential SPT drawdown data from an experimental site located at the northeast corner of the well field at Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu City, Yunlin County. The dataset spans five pumping tests conducted in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2018, and 2021, providing a unique opportunity to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of these hydrogeological parameters.

The study first analyzes the reciprocity of drawdown levels observed at the same monitoring well under varying conditions across the five tests, uncovering the influence of temporal and spatial factors on hydrogeological behavior. Subsequently, the drawdown data is integrated into a hydraulic tomography (HT) numerical approach using the VSAFT2 model—a two-dimensional simulation tool for variably saturated flow and transport based on the modified method of characteristics. Through this method, the distribution fields of 𝑇 and 𝑆 are reconstructed for each case. Finally, the study conducts an in-depth comparison of the distribution fields of 𝑇 and 𝑆 across the five years, exploring their temporal evolution, spatial variability, and reciprocity. This research seeks to provide a clearer understanding of the dynamic characteristics of hydrogeological parameters over time and space, laying a solid foundation for further studies and practical applications in the field.

How to cite: Hsu, Z.-J., Lin, H.-R., and Wen, J.-C.: Exploring Hydrogeological Reciprocity: A Case Study in Temporal and Spatial Variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8592, 2025.

Traditional temperature sensors often lack the capability for continuous, high-resolution soil temperature monitoring. This study employs Fiber Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing (FO-DTS) to establish a large-scale, horizontal experimental site for observing shallow soil temperature variations with high spatial resolution. The research investigates the spatial distribution of water infiltration in a retention pond by analyzing temperature variations in soil layers. The study site near Douliu Irrigation in Gukeng Township, central Taiwan, encompasses a 2-hectare retention pond comprising a precipitate pool and an infiltration pool. Fiber optic cables were deployed around both pools and buried in three layers to a total depth of 60 cm, with 20 cm intervals between each layer, enabling stratified soil temperature monitoring. By leveraging the phase delay in cyclical temperature variations between surface and subsurface layers, the FO-DTS system assesses water infiltration rates and their contribution to groundwater recharge. The results indicate that water infiltration significantly impacts soil temperature beneath the retention pond, exhibiting daily cyclical variability. The average soil temperature shows a negative correlation with depth, demonstrating that the FO-DTS effectively captures the thermal front caused by water infiltration. This approach highlights the potential of FO-DTS for accurately evaluating infiltration dynamics and its implications for regional groundwater management.

How to cite: Chen, B. C., Lin, H. R., and Wen, J. C.: Unraveling Spatial Water Infiltration Patterns in a Retention Pond Using Fiber Optic Distributed Temperature Sensor, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8626, 2025.

EGU25-9082 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Heat Budget Analysis of a Braided River in Taiwan Using the HFLUX Model 

Chen Yu-Cheng, Yeh Hsiu-Hao, Chiu Yung-Chia, and Lee Tsung-Yu

Temperature is regarded as an effective natural tracer for analyzing river flow sources through heat budgets. This study investigates the thermal dynamics of the Ai-Liao River, Taiwan, during a dry-season period (December 6–9, 2022). A fiber-optic distributed temperature sensor (FO-DTS) was deployed along a 782-meter river section, and the HFLUX model was employed to analyze the river’s heat budget. Additionally, thermal imagery obtained via drone-assisted surveys was used to identify potential groundwater inflow locations. FO-DTS data revealed high spatial temperature variability, dividing the study area into three segments. In the upper segment, daily temperature differences (DTD) increased downstream. In the middle segment, DTD decreased downstream, while in the lower segment, DTD remained stable. The HFLUX model simulations yielded RMSE values of 0.42°C, 0.33°C, and 0.30°C for the respective segments. Results indicated that the upper segment exhibited high sensitivity to heat budget changes due to low flow. In contrast, the middle segment demonstrated increased groundwater energy contributions, with an average of −83.3 W/m² over three days, moderating DTD. Thermal imagery captured "tongue-shaped" inflow patterns along the middle riverbanks, indicating significant water source inputs. In the lower segment, increased flow stabilized DTD. The integrated analysis from observations, modeling, and thermal imagery suggests that modeled groundwater inflows predominantly enter the river as hyporheic flows.

How to cite: Yu-Cheng, C., Hsiu-Hao, Y., Yung-Chia, C., and Tsung-Yu, L.: Heat Budget Analysis of a Braided River in Taiwan Using the HFLUX Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9082, 2025.

An in-depth understanding of the transport and fate of solutes, nutrients and pollutants within a catchment is crucial to address issues related to water quality and quantity, including the protection and management of water resources. Transit Time Distributions (TTDs) of streamflow can provide useful descriptors of catchment hydrological functioning and can inform on solute transport mechanisms. They can be estimated using StorAge Selection (SAS) functions, which is a time-varying approach that describes how catchments selectively release water of different ages from storage through discharge, thereby regulating the streamflow TTDs and solute composition. For instance, the proportion of young water tends to increase during wet conditions and decrease during dry periods.

In this study, we explore how the dynamics of SAS functions can be linked to the different fluxes and state variables of a conceptual hydrological model. To achieve this, we tested various coupling strategies over the French Orgeval catchment (104 km²) in France, using chloride concentrations as a conservative tracer and the GR6J hydrological model (internal state variables). The modelling results showed that incorporating dynamic (time-varying) SAS functions is essential for accurately capturing the temporal variability observed in the chloride concentration time series. Furthermore, the results showed that the signal of inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF), conceptually defined as the groundwater inflows and outflows across the topographic boundaries of a catchment, is the best variable for driving the dynamic of the age of the river flow.

How to cite: Rabah, A., de Lavenne, A., and Ramos, M.-H.: Toward understanding transport and chloride dynamics at the catchment scale by combining StorAge Selection functions and a hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9559, 2025.

EGU25-10388 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Celerity, velocity and flow path lengths of near-surface flow pathways: insights from tracer experiments during artificial rainfall 

Anna Leuteritz, Victor Gauthier, and Ilja van Meerveld

In catchments with low permeability soils, near-surface flow pathways can quickly transport water and solutes from the hillslopes to the stream network. Gaining insight into these pathways is essential for predicting changes in stream chemistry and improving flood forecasting. Despite their importance, near-surface flow pathways have rarely been assessed for well vegetated catchments in temperate climate. To better understand the importance of these flow pathways in terms of their ability to transfer water to the stream (celerity), transport solutes (particle velocity), and their flow path lengths, we conducted artificial rainfall simulation experiments on two large (>80 m2) trenched runoff plots in a small headwater catchment underlain by gleysols in the Swiss pre-Alps. One plot is located in a natural clearing in an open mixed forest and the other in a wet pasture. Together they represent the dominant land cover types in the region.

We applied streamwater to the surface of the plots using sprinklers and tracers after overland flow and lateral flow through the topsoil had reached steady state. Deuterium-enriched water was applied to the surface via the sprinklers, while Uranine and NaCl were applied as a line tracer at multiple distances from the trench. NaBr was injected into the topsoil at ~20 cm depth. Samples of overland flow and topsoil interflow were collected for several hours after tracer application, while the sprinklers continued to apply water to the surface. To determine the lengths of the overland flow pathways, we applied brilliant blue dye on the surface at different distances from the trench. The celerity of overland flow and topsoil interflow was determined by temporarily adding more water to the surface of the plots at different distances from the runoff collectors.

The breakthrough curves for both plots highlighted the rapid transport of water and solutes, as well as the high interaction between overland flow and topsoil interflow. The average of the maximum particle velocity (calculated for the different tracers) was 51 ± 14 m h-1 for overland flow and 30 ± 9 m h-1 for topsoil interflow for the plot in the natural clearing. The particle velocity was lower for the plot in the pasture: 24 ± 1 m h-1 for overland flow and 17 ± 6 m h-1 for topsoil interflow. The celerity was 2-3 times higher than the particle velocity for overland flow and similar to the velocity for topsoil interflow. The blue dye experiments highlighted that overland flow pathways are relative short for most locations (< 5m) and confirmed the considerable interaction between overland flow and topsoil interflow. In summary, these results highlight the high connectivity between overland flow and topsoil interflow and the critical role of macropores and soil pipes in rapidly transporting water and solutes from the hillslopes to the streams.

How to cite: Leuteritz, A., Gauthier, V., and van Meerveld, I.: Celerity, velocity and flow path lengths of near-surface flow pathways: insights from tracer experiments during artificial rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10388, 2025.

EGU25-10457 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Tracing Subsurface Stormflow: Insights into Preferential Flow and Pre-Event Water Contributions from Controlled Sprinkling Experiments 

Jonas Pyschik, Emanuel Thoenes, Stefan Achleitner, Bernhard Kohl, and Markus Weiler

Subsurface stormflow (SSF) is an essential process in runoff generation, particularly in headwater catchments where it can contribute for more than 90% of streamflow (Beasley, 1976). However, the fundamental mechanisms of SSF are still inadequately comprehended. Studies based on observing natural rainfall events provide valuable insights, but they introduce uncertainties stemming from uncertain input, particularly in forested sites where throughfall alters both the volume and isotopic composition of precipitation. To address these uncertainties and to allow detailed measurements under controlled conditions, we performed 7 sprinkling experiments with specified amount and intensities and elevated isotopic signatures.

We performed the large-scale (200 m²) artificial rainfall experiments in four low mountain and alpine catchments, each with two trenched slopes. The trenches exceeding 10 m in width were stratified to differentiate between shallow (< 1 m) and deep SSF (1 to max 3 m). We monitored groundwater levels using five wells above each trench and measured soil moisture dynamics in one profile per trench. Irrigation was applied at a rate of ~16 mm h -1 for 3 hours. The initial half served as a wetting phase without tracer, while for the latter half we added deuterated water as an artificial tracer.

Runoff was continuously measured and water samples were analysed for their isotopic composition. Deep soil cores were extracted from one trench to identify deuterated water in the soil matrix after the event. The results showed that deuterated water rapidly reached the trench outlet (within 20-40 minutes), indicating substantial preferential flow. Nevertheless, tracer water was exclusively detected in the topsoil of the soil matrix, indicating limited matrix flow. We applied mixing models that indicated that only 5-20% of the irrigation water was recovered at the outlet, with the remainder being pre-event water. We further analysed groundwater level data and soil moisture profiles to identify activated flow paths and better understand SSF dynamics.

These findings underscore the dominance of preferential flow pathways in SSF and indicate that pre-event water contributions play a major role in SSF.

 

Beasley, R.S. (1976) ‘Contribution of subsurface flow from the upper slopes of forested watersheds to channel flow’, Soil Science Society of America Journal, 40(6), pp. 955–957. doi:10.2136/sssaj1976.03615995004000060039x.

How to cite: Pyschik, J., Thoenes, E., Achleitner, S., Kohl, B., and Weiler, M.: Tracing Subsurface Stormflow: Insights into Preferential Flow and Pre-Event Water Contributions from Controlled Sprinkling Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10457, 2025.

Subsurface storm flow (SSF), also referred to as interflow, plays an important role in runoff generation and flood events at the watershed scale. Its transient and spatially variable nature, however, presents significant challenges in investigating and measuring this subsurface process. Framed within the SSF Forcing research unit, supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and Austrian Science Fund (FWF), this study explores several methodologies for detecting and characterizing SSF at the plot scale with a focus on understanding its vertical and lateral flow components. The research unit goal is to enhance the accuracy of SSF representation in hydrological models, enabling better flood predictions and water management practices.

This research employs multiple techniques, including Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR), and artificial rain simulations (ARS). These methods allow for the detailed examination of hydrological processes under controlled conditions, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of subsurface flow. TDR is used to quantify vertical water movement, providing baseline data for interpreting ERT profiles. Simultaneously, the use of two parallel ERT profiles within the irrigation plot enables continuous monitoring of subsurface flow pathways. These profiles capture both vertical infiltration and lateral interflow, which are key components of SSF.

While ERT and ARS are well-established techniques for tracing infiltrating water, distinguishing between vertical and lateral flow remains a challenge. The strong changes in the surface resistivity created by the artificial rainfall complicates the differentiation between vertical infiltration and lateral flow, due to its intrinsic limitations and the inversion artefacts that are exacerbated especially close to the surface. To address this, an 2D ERT reference line is positioned below the primary plot to isolate lateral flow from the influence of vertical infiltration. This reference line serves as a control, allowing for the validation of vertical and lateral interflow dynamics and ensuring the detection of deeper subsurface flows that are not influenced by direct rainfall input.

In addition, the significant change in the surface resistivity occurring within the ARS plot influences the resistivity measurements outside the irrigation plot in the reference ERT line, due to the tridimensionality of the physical phenomena. Therefore, this study primarily evaluates the effect of the irrigated waterfront on the 2D ERT resistivity measurements using forward modelling to subsequently focus on the lateral component of the subsurface runoff. Hence, it assesses the feasibility of using 2D-ERT data to identify subsurface stormflow in combination with ARS, addressing the challenge of differentiating flow components and mitigating inversion artifacts in the resistivity profiles.  Overcoming these challenges is necessary for improving the reliability of subsurface flow detection using ERT in hydrological research.

How to cite: Cordero Perez, V. and Lechner, V.: Investigating Subsurface Stormflow: 2D-ERT and Artificial Rain Simulations for Identifying Vertical and Lateral Flow Components, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10810, 2025.

EGU25-11960 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Geophysical Investigation of Slope Aspect Effect on Soil and Rock Moisture Interactions 

Joshua Kietzmann, Skye Bensel, James McNamara, and Qifei Niu

Seldom observed, rock moisture greatly influences plant water availability and is an important component of the terrestrial water cycle. However, its spatiotemporal dynamics and major influencing factors in a watershed are still unclear. Here, we present the results of a year-long time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey at a semi-arid watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed (DCEW) in Idaho, USA. The ERT monitoring was conducted across a ridge at the Treeline site of DCEW, and the results show a clear aspect effect on the dynamics of the subsurface water storage. The northeast-facing slope exhibits an increased weekly sensitivity to precipitation and evapotranspiration compared to the southwest slope, which has a smooth response. It also shows that the thicker regolith on the northeast slope holds more water than the thinner regolith on the southwest slope. Regarding the interaction between soil and rock moisture, the results show that there is an approximately two-week delay for the rock moisture to reach its lowest storage after the soil reaches its minimum storage in mid-August. The same delay is also observed for rock moisture during the wetting process occurring in later spring and early summer. Further work is suggested to develop a conceptual model for soil moisture/rock moisture interactions at the hillslope scale.

How to cite: Kietzmann, J., Bensel, S., McNamara, J., and Niu, Q.: Geophysical Investigation of Slope Aspect Effect on Soil and Rock Moisture Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11960, 2025.

Baseflow constitutes over 50% of streamflow in mountainous regions of the Western United States, making its accurate quantification essential for water management and decision-making. Traditional automated baseflow separation methods are often arbitrary and ambiguous, complicating their validation. This study developed an integrated hydrologic model that integrated the exchange between surface and subsurface flows to physically quantify the baseflow component in a snow dominated catchment. Using the model's simulated baseflow and streamflow as a control, we evaluated four common baseflow separation methods: the Pettyjohn and Henning (PH) graphical, the United Kingdom Institute of Hydrology (UKIH) graphical, the Eckhardt digital filter, and conductance mass balance (CMB) methods. Both UKIH graphical and Eckhardt filter methods performed relatively well with high modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (mKGE) (0.72 and 0.65, respectively) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (0.58 and 0.62, respectively) values. However, the UKIH graphical method performed poorer than the Eckhardt filter method in average and dry years when stream hydrographs resemble unimodal peaks, common in snow-dominated catchments. Additionally, the Eckhardt digital filter showed better matching of the temporal dynamics. The PH graphical and CMB methods did not perform satisfactorily with low mKGE and NSE values. The PH graphical method has consistently overestimated baseflow with an average baseflow index BFI of 85%, whereas the CMB method has consistently underestimated baseflow with an average BFI of 24%. Our findings suggest that integrated hydrologic models, when calibrated, provide a quantitative way to evaluate and improve existing baseflow separation methods. Additionally, caution should be exercised when applying automated baseflow separation methods in snow-dominated catchments, and future work is needed to thoroughly evaluate these methods in catchments with diverse hydroclimate conditions.

How to cite: Shuai, P. and Othman, J.: Quantitative Evaluation of Baseflow Separation Methods Using an Integrated Hydrologic Model: A Case Study in a Snow-Dominated Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12434, 2025.

EGU25-12612 | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Subsurface stormflow transport of water-soluble organic matter in hillslopes 

Christina Fasching, Jonas Pyschik, Markus Weiler, and Peter Chifflard

The transport of water-soluble organic matter (WSOM) during stormflow events is an important link between hillslope hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, as it determines the movement of organic carbon from soils to streams. Hydrological dynamics in hillslopes, particularly subsurface stormflow (SSF), exhibit substantial spatial and temporal variability, making quantification and generalization challenging. SSF can account for up to 90% of rainfall input to stream discharge during storm events, highlighting its importance in catchment hydrology. Despite its significance, current research frequently overlooks WSOM dynamics during SSF, which are not only key components of carbon cycling but may also serve as tracers for identifying potential critical source areas.

This emphasizes the importance of studying hillslope hydrological dynamics and determining the factors that contribute to SSF spatial and temporal variability. Furthermore, the specific flow paths within hillslopes remain poorly understood, which complicates the identification of spatial sources and transport mechanisms for organic carbon. To fill these knowledge gaps, we conducted a field study in the Black Forest, Germany, using a trench system to collect lateral subsurface flows at two depths (0-100 cm and 100-200 cm) over several rain events. We analysed WSOM concentration and quality using absorbance and fluorescence properties to assess the variability in critical source areas. We also conducted isotopic analyses of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δ²H) of the same water samples to infer flow pathways with a conservative tracer.

This approach provides valuable insights into the temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of SSF. Our findings will contribute to our understanding of flow paths, transit times, and the characteristics of WSOM export, offering a deeper understanding of subsurface flow processes in catchments. Finally, the findings of this study can help to improve biogeochemical models and improve scaling of hillslope processes models, particularly in understanding their contribution to organic carbon transport via SSF.

 

 

How to cite: Fasching, C., Pyschik, J., Weiler, M., and Chifflard, P.: Subsurface stormflow transport of water-soluble organic matter in hillslopes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12612, 2025.

EGU25-12775 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.4

Role of Soil Profile Depth in Effective Irrigation Scheduling 

Damodar Sharma, Surendra Kumar Mishra, and Rajendra Prasad Pandey

The depth of the soil profile is a critical factor in irrigation engineering, often estimated as 1–1.5 meters, usually referred to as root zone depth below ground based on crop and soil types, as well as practitioner experience. This traditional approach can lead to errors in irrigation planning. This study combines Richards' equation with the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and soil column principles from geotechnical engineering to create a formula for determining the adequate soil profile depth that provides the maximum water storage capacity. This soil profile depth depends on the soil's hydraulic and storage properties. The relationship is then linked with the SCS-CN parameter (curve number) for practical applications like irrigation scheduling. Results of this study show that for sandy soil, the proposed method can save 83% and 75% of irrigation water compared to the traditional fixed depths of 1.5m and 1m, respectively. For clayey soil, water savings can reach 94% and 92%, respectively. This method also helps to estimate field capacity, average moisture content, and maximum water storage capacity for various soil types, improving water management and irrigation efficiency in field applications.

How to cite: Sharma, D., Mishra, S. K., and Pandey, R. P.: Role of Soil Profile Depth in Effective Irrigation Scheduling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12775, 2025.

EGU25-14817 | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Tracing Subsurface Stormflow: Combining HYDRUS Modelling and ERT Profiles to Explore Runoff, Storage and Percolation under Intense Rainfall 

Veronika Lechner, Emanuel Thoenes, Stefan Achleitner, and Bernhard Kohl

In controlled rainfall experiments conducted across four catchments in Germany and Austria, rainfall simulations were conducted on 200m² large plots and 50m² small plots, all designed to detect subsurface stormflow (SSF).  At the larger plots, SSF was captured using a trench located below the irrigated area, as described in the study of Thoenes et al. (2025, hoc loco). The present study focuses on the 50m² plots, which were irrigated with an intensity of 100 mm/h for one hour. Surface runoff was collected at the downslope edge and measured in terms of both time and quantity.

Soil moisture changes were monitored using two methods: electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) along three cross-profiles, two of which intersected the rainfall area, while one was located beneath the surface runoff collection boundary. Measurements were conducted at 15-minute intervals pre-, during, and post-experiment to ensure continuous monitoring. Additionally, time-domain reflectometry (TDR) probes were installed up to a depth of 60 cm at the centre of the two ERT profiles within the rainfall area. Soil samples were collected after the experiment and analysed for physical properties, including texture, bulk density, organic content, and pF curves.

The aim of the study is to assess the potential available for deep percolation and potential SSF during intensive rainfall by employing a flexible arrangement across different hillslopes.

Using two different soil hydraulic models (single porosity model van Genuchten–Mualem and dual porosity/dual permeability model by Durner, dual van Genuchten–Mualem), the laboratory results were prepared for modelling in HYDRUS-1D. The rainfall experiments were simulated using the soil moisture data. Further calibration was performed using the measured surface runoff by adjusting the saturated hydraulic conductivity accordingly. The calibrated model allowed for a water balance calculation of the applied rainfall, partitioning it into surface runoff, soil storage, and the fraction available for deep percolation and potential SSF.

In the next step, the HYDRUS-1D simulation results were compared with the values from the ERT profiles close to the TDR measurements. Initial results confirm the findings of Pyschik et al., indicating that 80–95% of the applied rainfall is stored in the soil. The extent to which the combination of hydrological modelling and ERT profiles allows conclusions to be drawn regarding lateral water movement and SSF will subsequently be examined using HYDRUS-2D simulations in a longitudinal section.

How to cite: Lechner, V., Thoenes, E., Achleitner, S., and Kohl, B.: Tracing Subsurface Stormflow: Combining HYDRUS Modelling and ERT Profiles to Explore Runoff, Storage and Percolation under Intense Rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14817, 2025.

EGU25-15193 | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Event-based dynamics of the chemical composition of subsurface stormflow across seasons 

Luisa Hopp, Alexey Kuleshov, and Theresa Blume

Subsurface stormflow (SSF) is a streamflow generation process that is difficult to observe. It has therefore been challenging to evaluate the relevance and magnitude of SSF contributions to streamflow quantity and quality. However, some earlier studies have shown that it can deliver substantial amounts of water to the stream at the time scale of an event.  One possible approach for detecting SSF in streamflow has been to sample SSF on hillslopes, characterize it by analyzing various tracers and search for this SSF fingerprint in stream water samples. In this study, we ask the following questions: Does subsurface stormflow generated on hillslopes and moving downslope towards the stream have a typical chemical fingerprint or signature by which we could recognize it in the stream? And does this signature vary over time? Here, we present data from a headwater catchment near Freiburg, Germany, where we installed three trenches to measure SSF flow rates and to obtain SSF samples for chemical analysis. We collected SSF samples from the three trenches over multiple events during spring 2023, fall 2023 and spring 2024 and analyzed them for dissolved organic carbon and major ions. We compared chemical SSF signatures through the events, across seasons and between the three trenches. Preliminary analyses indicate that the SSF signature changed during events, with SSF signatures at the beginning and at the end of events being remarkably similar to each other. Results also hint at a seasonal stability of SSF signatures. In our presentation, we are going to present a detailed analysis of the dynamics of the chemical SSF signature. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the chemical composition of subsurface stormflow in sub-daily resolution at three different hillslopes and to improve our capability to recognize contributions of SSF to streamflow.

How to cite: Hopp, L., Kuleshov, A., and Blume, T.: Event-based dynamics of the chemical composition of subsurface stormflow across seasons, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15193, 2025.

EGU25-15757 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.4

Exploring Subsurface Stormflow through Sprinkling Experiments at Multiple Trenchsites 

Emanuel Thoenes, Bernhard Kohl, Veronika Lechner, Jonas Pyschik, Markus Weiler, and Stefan Achleitner

In many natural landscapes, subsurface stormflow (SSF) is a runoff-producing mechanism which can substantially contribute to the storm hydrograph of a stream. Despite its importance, there is a lack of systematic studies exploring SSF across sites with different land uses and hydrogeological characteristics. Thus, we face limitations to properly conceptualize and parametrize hydrological models.

In order to gain a better understanding of the processes governing SSF, multiple SSF-capturing trenches were excavated. The selected trench sites span over different land uses, geology, soils and climates in Germany and Austria. Depending on local boundaries, the trenches were designed with a width of 11–15 m allowing to collect water flowing laterally at depths of up to 1–3 m. Using separate drainage pipes, the trench’s face is divided into an upper and lower flow-capture zone. Combining the measurements of vertically separated SSF outflow with upstream monitored groundwater levels and soil moisture dynamics, allows to estimate flow propagations along the hillslope.

Besides the continuous monitoring, these installations were used to measure SSF events triggered by artificial rainfall. In this study we investigated the SSF response at 11 different trench sites under controlled conditions using a large-scale (200 m²) experimental sprinkling system in combination with deuterated water, which served as an artificial tracer. The irrigation was applied at a rate of ca. 16 mm h-1 for about 3 hours. The analysis focuses on trenchflow dynamics (e.g., timing and magnitude of the peak flow, recession curve analysis) and their relationship with changes in soil moisture and groundwater level. The experiments highlighted the vastly different responses between sites; while some trenches remained dry, others were characterized by extremely high subsurface runoff coefficients and short response times.

How to cite: Thoenes, E., Kohl, B., Lechner, V., Pyschik, J., Weiler, M., and Achleitner, S.: Exploring Subsurface Stormflow through Sprinkling Experiments at Multiple Trenchsites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15757, 2025.

EGU25-16458 | ECS | Orals | HS2.2.4

Soil properties, topography, and meteorological forcing control preferential flow and streamflow generation in a Mediterranean forested catchment 

Matteo Verdone, Konstantinos Kaffas, Ilenia Murgia, Andrea Menapace, Marcos Macchioli Grande, Andrea Dani, Francesca Sofia Manca di Villahermosa, Federico Preti, Catalina Segura, Christian Massari, Julian Klaus, Marco Borga, and Daniele Penna

Preferential flow (PF) is a key hydrological process that influences water infiltration, soil moisture redistribution, and streamflow generation. In Mediterranean forested catchments, the dynamics of PF and its controls remain largely underexplored. Here, we investigated PF mechanisms and their impact on hydrological response in the Re della Pietra experimental catchment (2 km²) in the Tuscan Apennines, central Italy. Two hillslope transects with soil moisture sensors at shallow (15 cm) and deep (35 cm) layers were monitored for 34 and 18 months, respectively. A supervised Random Forest (RF) classification model was employed to identify the dominant controls on PF initiation across varying hydrological, topographical, and soil conditions.

Results showed that antecedent soil moisture was the primary driver of PF in one of the hillslopes, while dry bulk density dominated in the other, highlighting spatial heterogeneity in PF controls. Precipitation characteristics played a secondary role, with PF more likely during dry periods at both sites. PF events altered streamflow dynamics, producing early hydrograph peaks and sustaining flow during recession phases. Mixed flow events, combining sequential and non-sequential soil moisture responses, generated the highest total streamflow volumes, emphasizing the contribution of PF to catchment connectivity.

These findings underscore the importance of PF in Mediterranean hydrology, where alternating wet and dry periods intensify its effects on water redistribution and streamflow generation. By combining extensive field monitoring with machine learning, this study offers new insights into the interplay between PF and catchment hydrological responses.

How to cite: Verdone, M., Kaffas, K., Murgia, I., Menapace, A., Macchioli Grande, M., Dani, A., Manca di Villahermosa, F. S., Preti, F., Segura, C., Massari, C., Klaus, J., Borga, M., and Penna, D.: Soil properties, topography, and meteorological forcing control preferential flow and streamflow generation in a Mediterranean forested catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16458, 2025.

EGU25-16757 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Spatial and temporal variation in near-surface runoff in a pre-Alpine headwater catchment 

Victor Gauthier, Anna Leuteritz, and Ilja van Meerveld

Near-surface flow pathways are important for the transfer of water and solutes from the hillslopes to the streams, particularly in head water catchments with low permeability soils. However, the high spatio-temporal variability in the occurrence of runoff makes it difficult to study these flow pathways and to upscale plots based measurements to the catchment scale. Furthermore, it is well known that the amount of overland flow at the bottom of a runoff plot depends on the size of the plot. To better understand the importance of near-surface flow pathways in pre-Alpine headwater catchments underlain by low permeability gleysols, we installed 14 small (1 × 3 m) trenched runoff plots in the Studibach catchment in the Alptal (Switzerland). They cover a range of topographic positions and vegetation covers. We measured the occurrence of overland flow (including biomat flow) and shallow subsurface flow through the topsoil (i.e., the main rooting zone), precipitation, and soil moisture during a snow-free season. In addition, we collected data in a second snow-free season from two large plots (>80 m2) and two nearby small plots. The results from the small plots showed that runoff ratios increase with increasing soil moisture storage and precipitation and are higher for areas with a greater topographic wetness index (TWI). To understand the effect of plot size on near-surface runoff, we compared the runoff characteristics (runoff ratio and runoff generation threshold) for the small and large plots for different events. Additionally, we determined the typical flow path lengths (and thus the effect of plot size) by applying blue dye and tracers to the surface of the plots during rainfall simulation experiments. These experiments showed that overland flow generally infiltrates within a short distance (<5 m, and often <1 m) but also exfiltrates again after flowing a short distance below the ground (<5 m). To better understand the importance of near-surface flow for runoff at the catchment scale, we compare the runoff thresholds and runoff ratios for the small and large plots to those for streamflow. We, furthermore, investigated the spatial pattern in near-surface flow generation across the catchment based on the relation between topography (TWI) and near-surface runoff generation. More specifically, we related the area where near-surface runoff is expected to occur and its connectivity to the stream, to the streamflow response for different sub-catchments and the catchment outlet.

How to cite: Gauthier, V., Leuteritz, A., and van Meerveld, I.: Spatial and temporal variation in near-surface runoff in a pre-Alpine headwater catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16757, 2025.

EGU25-17789 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Harnessing the Power of eDNA Biodiversity Assessment to Enhance Subsurface Water Flow Pathway Reconstruction 

Yvonne Schadewell, Sören Köhler, Christina Fasching, Peter Chifflard, and Florian Leese

Rainfall runoff contributes to a large proportion of the discharge in streams and therefore, heavily influences stream water quality but also flood generation. Rainfall runoff generation is usually a combination of overland and subsurface flow processes, the latter of which being especially difficult to trace. Here, we explored the viability of environmental DNA (eDNA) for subsurface water flow pathway reconstruction and simultaneous biodiversity assessment. The degree of similarity of community patterns indicates biological and therefore, in principle, also hydrological connectivity. We applied eDNA metabarcoding to characterise 10 drilling cores (0.7-3.2 m depth) on 3 hillslopes (10x50 m) in 4 catchment areas in Germany and Austria. In total, more than 2000 species across taxonomic groups could be identified down to species level. Analysis of alpha and beta diversity in the different catchments showed significant differences in spatial clustering patterns between taxonomic groups, but also between geomorphological and geochemical properties, such as the composition of dissolved organic carbon, of the respective catchment. We could assign indicator species sets in all taxonomic groups to various depth layers and identify habitat-specific communities that can be used as hydrological tracers. Although our results support the potential of eDNA to identify flow pathways and enhance our understanding of subsurface flow processes, we are still at the beginning of understanding the viability of eDNA as a tracer in hydrological research. However, our results show that making use of such naturally occurring tracers can expand our understanding of hydrological phenomena, especially those hidden in the subsurface.

How to cite: Schadewell, Y., Köhler, S., Fasching, C., Chifflard, P., and Leese, F.: Harnessing the Power of eDNA Biodiversity Assessment to Enhance Subsurface Water Flow Pathway Reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17789, 2025.

EGU25-18321 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Automated Sequential Salt Injection to Estimate Subsurface Contributions to Streamflow in Headwater Catchments in Germany 

Gijs Vis, Friederike Adeberg, Gabriel Sentlinger, Anne Hartmann, Luisa Hopp, and Theresa Blume

Sequential salt dilution measurements of discharge along streams allow us to determine stream gains and losses on a reach-by-reach basis. This information is especially useful in the context of studying the spatial variability of subsurface flow contributions to overall streamflow. However, these sorts of measurements are time-intensive and laborious and therefore usually only carried out during snapshot campaigns. In our study we explore the potential of an automated sequential salt injection method, applying the same methodology in three headwater catchments in typical mountainous regions in Germany (Black Forest, Sauerland, Ore Mountains).

Several automated salt injection units were spaced approximately 200 m apart at each site, set to inject at a scheduled daily interval as well as on rainfall event-based triggers. Electrical conductivity is measured at 5-second intervals both upstream and downstream of each injection point to obtain discharge estimates. This approach opens the possibility of measuring local gains and losses at scales on the order of 200 m but at a much higher temporal frequency than is usually achieved with manual snapshot campaigns. This higher frequency has the advantage of sampling over a larger range of conditions and thus providing a much more detailed picture of runoff generation along the stream.

Given the required need for highly accurate discharge estimates in the here studied small streams the feasibility of using this automated method to quantify subsurface contributions to streamflow along the stream is assessed, with a key focus on evaluating uncertainties.

How to cite: Vis, G., Adeberg, F., Sentlinger, G., Hartmann, A., Hopp, L., and Blume, T.: Automated Sequential Salt Injection to Estimate Subsurface Contributions to Streamflow in Headwater Catchments in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18321, 2025.

EGU25-19662 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.2.4

Streamflow (de)generation - how do streams lose flow? 

Clarissa Glaser, John P. Gannon, Sarah E. Godsey, Emilio Grande, and Julian Klaus

Streamflow loss is a key process for stream drying and has been studied across various environments and scales. However, there has been little effort to systematically organize processes that drive streamflow loss. We introduce a conceptual framework of “streamflow degeneration” and outline how this framework facilitates the organization of the processes based on subsurface characteristics and settings. The underlying principle for organizing is based on subsurface’s capacity to convey water away from the stream. Using this transport capacity to organize processes of streamflow loss is feasible because it relies on the same principle governing streamflow generation processes. The streamflow degeneration framework includes six distinct streamflow loss processes. We compare how these streamflow loss processes modify a hydrograph along a stream reach under idealized conditions. We call for both field and modeling studies to build on this conceptual framework to define key questions on the significance of streamflow loss. Additionally, we propose various approaches the community may use to answer these questions. The streamflow degeneration framework will help identify commonalities in drying regimes across streams, allowing the generalization of findings from field and modeling studies across various contexts. Organizing streamflow loss according to the streamflow degeneration framework might ultimately lead to the discovery of hydrological laws and the transferability of this understanding of streamflow loss to unstudied reaches.

How to cite: Glaser, C., Gannon, J. P., Godsey, S. E., Grande, E., and Klaus, J.: Streamflow (de)generation - how do streams lose flow?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19662, 2025.

HS2.3 – Water quality at the catchment scale

EGU25-1652 | Orals | HS2.3.1

The Role of Groundwater in Contributing to Surface Water Salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin 

Matthew Miller, Olivia Miller, Daniel Wise, Patrick Longley, Morgan McDonnell, and Noah Schmadel

Freshwater salinization impacts the availability of water for human use and ecosystem needs across the globe. In the southwestern United States, it has been estimated that total dissolved solids (TDS; a proxy for salinity) from the Upper Colorado River Basin cause upwards of $300 million per year in economic damages. Substantial resources are devoted to reducing TDS loading to streams and rivers in the basin, with targeted mitigation efforts that have been informed by long-term average models that have identified ubiquitous dissolution of minerals in soils and rocks and relatively small areas of irrigated lands as dominant sources of TDS.  Recent work has demonstrated that between 65% and 80% of TDS loading to streams in the basin originates from baseflow, a proxy for groundwater discharge to streams, highlighting the importance of subsurface processes in TDS delivery to streams.  This study describes the development and application of two coupled, temporally dynamic Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models that estimate sources and processes influencing the transport of dissolved solids to streams in the basin at a seasonal time-step over a 35-year period. The key advance is using seasonal estimates of baseflow TDS loads from a baseflow-specific model as explicit time-varying inputs to a total in-stream TDS model, which allows for source tracking through the subsurface and across the landscape over a range of timescales.  Results suggest that baseflow is a dominant source of TDS loading throughout the basin, and its relative source proportion varies spatially and across timescales as a function of climate, geology, and land use.  Given the lagged delivery associated with baseflow contributions of constituents to streams, this approach of first quantifying baseflow and its drivers relative to all sources has implications for how, when, and where mitigation efforts aimed at reducing TDS loading to streams may be effective.

How to cite: Miller, M., Miller, O., Wise, D., Longley, P., McDonnell, M., and Schmadel, N.: The Role of Groundwater in Contributing to Surface Water Salinization in the Upper Colorado River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1652, 2025.

High-frequency sampling enables the observation of rapid and subtle variations that can be missed with less frequent observations, which is crucial for understanding the complex interplay of factors influencing water quality. This research analyzes high-frequency data to understand water quality dynamics in the Bode river basin in central Germany, a region characterized by diverse climatic, geological, and land-use conditions.

Using data collected from five monitoring stations over seven years (2013–2020), six variables (electrical conductivity, nitrate, turbidity, water discharge, water temperature, and pH) were analyzed with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The first principal component (PC1) explained 46% of the variance, and described the typical effect of stream discharge fluctuations throughout the seasons. PC2 highlighted the influence of saline groundwater upwelling during low-flow conditions, while PC3 revealed the role of photosynthetic activity in driving diurnal and seasonal pH fluctuations. Other components unraveled localized processes, including turbidity variability during discharge peaks (PC4, PC5 and PC6), anthropogenic effects, such as the discharge of treated acid mine drainage into the river system (PC7), and agricultural runoff influencing nitrate dynamics (PC8). Together, these components demonstrated how PCA can disentangle diverse influences on water quality, from climatic patterns to human interventions.

Collectively, the PCA results elucidated a wide range of factors influencing water quality, encompassing climatic variations and anthropogenic impacts. High-resolution temporal data revealed intricate dynamics that would otherwise remain undetected with less frequent sampling intervals. PCA proved to be an effective quantitative tool for synthesizing complex, multivariate datasets across multiple monitoring sites, enabling the identification of dominant hydrological controls and interactions between natural and human-driven processes. This methodological framework is adaptable to larger datasets, offering the potential for pattern recognition at regional or global scales and advancing hydrological synthesis. Its application can support adaptive water resource management in regions subject to diverse environmental and anthropogenic pressures.

How to cite: Gutiérrez, K., Lischeid, G., and Rode, M.: Disentangling Spatiotemporal Water Quality Dynamics in a Heterogeneous Catchment Using High-Frequency Data and Principal Component Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3542, 2025.

EGU25-4228 | Orals | HS2.3.1

Improving water quality at the catchment scale through process-informed management and mitigation 

Magdalena Bieroza, John Livsey, Lukas Hallberg, Maarten Wynants, and Lauira-Ainhoa Prischl

Improving water quality at the catchment scale proves difficult as indicated by shifting deadlines of the Water Framework Directive for achieving good chemical and ecological status in European freshwaters. Low-hanging fruits of reducing point sources of pollution have already been targeted in most catchments, with more challenging and persistent diffuse pollution jeopardising widespread water quality improvements. Diffuse pollution originates from a range of anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, forestry and mining and leads to gradual accumulation of pollutants in impacted catchments. These abundant pools of pollution, also known as legacies, can control water quality and limit the effectiveness of mitigation measures in the long term. Yet, our understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlling mobilisation, transformation, transport and impact of pollution legacies in catchments is still limited. Here, we present results from multiple projects focusing on identifying processes controlling eutrophication and erosion in headwater agricultural catchments to support management and mitigation. We use a suite of experimental and modelling tools from high-frequency stream chemistry data, in situ measurements of dominant processes, laboratory assays, and process-based models to quantify hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Our results show that despite common pollution pressures, agricultural catchments differ in how they modulate pollution legacies. Their resilience/sensitivity to pollution depends on the interplay between hydrological and biogeochemical processes. Biogeochemical processes such as sorption, sedimentation and denitrification show potential for pollution retention and removal; however, their capacity is rapidly exhausted during hydrologic events mobilising large fluxes of legacy pollutants. As the importance of hydrological accumulation increases with catchment size, the cumulative impact of mitigation measures on water quality declines along the stream network. Finally, our modelling approach shows that only large-scale mitigation interventions are likely to bring the required water quality improvements, particularly under future climatic conditions with accelerated biogeochemical and hydrological processes. Understanding these processes is key to effective mitigation and reducing potential pollution swapping in heavily impacted catchments.

How to cite: Bieroza, M., Livsey, J., Hallberg, L., Wynants, M., and Prischl, L.-A.: Improving water quality at the catchment scale through process-informed management and mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4228, 2025.

EGU25-4498 | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Influence of canal use purpose on water quality: A case study in the floodplain area of the Life Green4Blue project 

Mauro De Feudis, Gloria Falsone, William Trenti, Andrea Morsolin, and Livia Vittori Antisari

Floodplain ecosystems worldwide have largely been reclaimed for urbanization and agriculture. In these reclaimed areas, water is managed through artificial canals that serve various purposes, including irrigation, soil drainage, flood safety, and biodiversity support. This study aimed to assess how the use of artificial canals (irrigation and receiving canals) within the floodplain area of the Life Green4Blue project (LIFE18 NAT/IT/000946) affects water quality. The study was conducted in the Po Plain (Italy), an area that has undergone extensive agricultural reclamation in the past century. The irrigation canals are supplied with water from the Canale Emiliano Romagnolo, which diverts water from the Po River during the summer months (April to September). The larger receiving canals primarily act as discharge routes for both irrigation and drainage canals, and to a lesser extent, for irrigation. During autumn and winter (October to March), both types of canals are used to maintain hydraulic safety by lowering the water levels.

Water quality was monitored monthly from January 2020 to December 2023. Cluster analysis (CA) showed a clear distinction between the water in receiving canals and irrigation canals. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified that the differences were mainly due to nutrient and salt concentrations. Water in receiving canals exhibited higher levels of nutrients (such as N-NH4, Ca, K, Mg, P, and S) and higher electrical conductivity (EC) values. The poorer quality of water in the receiving canals is attributed to its origin—soil leachates and water from irrigation canals that have already traveled across agricultural lands—and the lack of freshwater input. Consequently, the water quality index (WQI) was higher for irrigation canals (67) compared to receiving canals (61).

Both canal types showed a decline in water quality during the autumn and winter (AW) seasons, as indicated by the PCA. This decline was linked to higher nutrient and EC concentrations compared to the spring and summer (SS) seasons. The increased nutrient load in the AW seasons is likely due to greater soil leaching caused by higher rainfall. Additionally, the reduced water flow during AW seasons hindered dilution, allowing for more significant exchange of cations and anions from the bed sediments. Interestingly, the decline in water quality was more pronounced in irrigation canals than in receiving ones, suggesting that freshwater input plays a crucial role in maintaining water quality in irrigation canals.

This study underscores the influence of canal usage on water quality and highlights the need for continuous freshwater input throughout the year to sustain the ecosystem services provided by floodplain areas.

How to cite: De Feudis, M., Falsone, G., Trenti, W., Morsolin, A., and Vittori Antisari, L.: Influence of canal use purpose on water quality: A case study in the floodplain area of the Life Green4Blue project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4498, 2025.

EGU25-5709 | Orals | HS2.3.1

Rewetting of a drained peatland – implications for water quality 

Antonia Liess, Jasmin Borgert, Juha Rankinen, Clemens Klante, and Christian Alsterberg

Rewetting of previously drained peatlands in boreal regions has become a highly promoted solution to combat rising carbon dioxide emissions. By plugging drainage ditches and by raising the water table of peatlands, carbon storage is enhanced, and biological breakdown of stored organic carbon is halted. However, how the rise in water tables affects downstream water quality is not yet fully clarified. Possible effects on downstream water quality include increased mercury leaching, increased phosphorous leaching, increased dissolved organic matter and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in runoff, especially during rain events, as well as browning of downstream water bodies. These adverse effects on water quality may have implications for recipient ecosystems and drinking water production. Here we are presenting a field investigation in southern Sweden, that aims at clarifying the effects of peatland rewetting on downstream water quality. In addition to water quality parameters, we propose to measure peatland hydrology and water table depth, both before and after rewetting. The goal of the project is to inform policy makers of best monitoring practices for peatland rewetting efforts. Care must be taken to conduct thorough baseline studies at least during one - preferably two -years before rewetting. To understand the long-term effects of rewetting on downstream water quality, long time series are imperative. Monitoring should thus be continued for multiple years to decades after rewetting.

How to cite: Liess, A., Borgert, J., Rankinen, J., Klante, C., and Alsterberg, C.: Rewetting of a drained peatland – implications for water quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5709, 2025.

EGU25-5767 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Seasonal dynamics of brownification mitigation in constructed wetlands 

jasmin Borgert, Kevin Jones, Josefin Nilsson, Johanna Sjöstedt, and Antonia Liess

Boreal freshwaters are becoming darker. This brownification cooccurs with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and affects crucial ecosystem services. Our study investigated constructed wetland optimisation in terms of depth and water residence time (WRT) during different seasons to remedy dark water colour and high DOC concentrations, while retaining nitrogen removal. We conducted eleven-day experiments with deep-brown, shallow-brown and shallow-control treatments, in summer (June) and autumn (November) 2023, using 18 small-scale constructed wetlands at an experimental wetland area in southern Sweden. At the beginning of both experiments, the flow through the wetlands was halted and extracted peat was added to the brown treatment wetlands, thus simulating brownification by increasing absorbance and DOC concentrations. Thereafter, changes in absorbance, DOC concentration and total nitrogen (TN) concentration were measured. Our results showed that optimal WRT for increasing water clarity and reducing DOC concentrations varied between one and two days. A WRT of more than two days during summer, resulted in internal carbon production and darker water colour. The optimal WRT for TN removal was not affected by DOC addition. We conclude that constructed wetlands increase water clarity and boost carbon degradation if their WRT, especially during summer, is sufficiently short. If WRT exceeds two -three days in summer, internal carbon production together with low oxygen levels and increased iron (Fe) mobilization, may instead increase downstream brownification. Overall, our study shows that properly designed wetlands are suitable measures to mitigate the effects of brownification.

How to cite: Borgert, J., Jones, K., Nilsson, J., Sjöstedt, J., and Liess, A.: Seasonal dynamics of brownification mitigation in constructed wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5767, 2025.

EGU25-6390 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Trends in Instream Nitrogen-to-Phosphorus Ratios: A 30-Year Study of Ecological Relevance Across 750 Catchments 

Pia Ebeling, Nils Turner, Daniel Graeber, Andreas Musolff, Rémi Dupas, Jan H. Fleckenstein, Rohini Kumar, and Carolin Winter

Excess nutrients in aquatic ecosystems cause toxic algal blooms, deoxygenation, fish kills and health risks for humans, resulting in high costs for the environment and society. Next to absolute nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations, the stoichiometric ratio of N to P affects biological activity and thus on potential nutrient retention and the occurrence of adverse eutrophication effects. P inputs to streams have been largely reduced by improved wastewater treatment since the 1980s/1990s. In contrast, N inputs, mainly stemming from diffuse sources, have been reduced more recently and with slower rates. Moreover, diffuse inputs travel from the catchments’ surface along different pathways until reaching the streams with time lags up to decades from application to export, while wastewater is usually disposed directly into streams. These asynchronous changes in N and P inputs and distinct pathways suggest widespread increases in instream N:P ratios. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of these shifts across catchments, their ecological implications, and whether recent improvements in N control and fading P reductions have reversed this trend. 

To fill this knowledge gap, we analyze instream N:P trajectories in 767 catchments in France, Germany and Denmark in the period from 1990 to 2019. We classify the catchments based on ecologically relevant classes of molar N:P ratios and their decadal changes. For classification, we consider N-depletion for N:P < 20, P-depletion for N:P > 50 and N&P co-depletion in between, following Guildford and Hecky (2000), both for annual and summer periods.

We found 

(1) a widespread increase of N:P in 1990-2010 that is levelling off in the last decade and partly even reversing, primarily controlled by trends in P. 

(2) that 40% of catchments experienced at least one shift in depletion class over the decades.

(3) summer N:P ratios to be lower with 50% of the catchments remaining N- or N&P co-depleted in the last decade, despite overall positive N:P trends.

This indicates that, although shifts in nutrient management have intensified P depletion, notable spatial and temporal variations remain, which we intend to investigate in more detail. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of N:P trajectories in Western European streams, offering new insights into stream water quality and its ecological implications for aquatic ecosystems.

Guildford, S. J., & Hecky, R. E. (2000). Total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and nutrient limitation in lakes and oceans: Is there a common relationship? Limnology and Oceanography, 45(6), 1213-1223. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2000.45.6.1213

How to cite: Ebeling, P., Turner, N., Graeber, D., Musolff, A., Dupas, R., Fleckenstein, J. H., Kumar, R., and Winter, C.: Trends in Instream Nitrogen-to-Phosphorus Ratios: A 30-Year Study of Ecological Relevance Across 750 Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6390, 2025.

EGU25-6420 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Woodchip bioreactor as a site specific approach to reduce nitrate loads from agriculture: demonstration in practice 

Inge van Driezum, Arnaut van Loon, Stefan Jansen, Joachim Rozemeijer, Marc Nijboer, Frank van Herpen, and Harry Verstegen

In the South-eastern part of the Netherlands, nitrate concentrations often exceed the limit values in surface water due to agricultural activities. Water bodies should be in good chemical status by 2027 according to the Water Framework Directive, so measures should be taken to reduce nitrate loads to the streams. In this area, many agricultural fields are equipped with tile drainage systems. A way to reduce the nitrate emissions is the installation of woodchip bioreactors which are connected to these tile drainage systems. Residence times of the drainage water should be taken into account, for negative side effects may prevail when these are too high. This includes the production of nitrous oxides, sulfide and ammonia, and leaching of heavy metals.

A woodchip bioreactor was installed and connected to 4ha arable land on sandy soil in the southern part of the Netherlands in 2023. During drainage season, the influent of the bioreactor is connected to the tile drainage system, whereas it is disconnected during low or no flow periods (mainly in summer). The effluent is connected to a small stream. Continuous nitrate sensors were installed at both the in- and effluent, as well as discharge measurements to determine the removal efficiency of the bioreactor. Several piezometers were installed inside the reactor to monitor the biogeochemical processes taking place.

An extensive sampling campaign was carried out in autumn 2023, during the drainage season 2024, autumn 2024 and during the drainage season 2025. It showed considerable removal of nitrate (between 40% and 90%), especially in the first half of the reactor. At specific moments, some leaching of sulfide, ammonia, phosphorus and iron was observed. These leaching events appear to be related to start-up of the reactor in autumn 2023 and 2024 and not specifically to flow rate. The formation of nitrous oxide was determined during operation in 2024/2025 and was negligible.
The woodchip bioreactor proved to be a good area-specific measure to reduce nitrate loads in small streams, but care has to be taken on possible side-effects of the bioreactor on the stream.

How to cite: van Driezum, I., van Loon, A., Jansen, S., Rozemeijer, J., Nijboer, M., van Herpen, F., and Verstegen, H.: Woodchip bioreactor as a site specific approach to reduce nitrate loads from agriculture: demonstration in practice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6420, 2025.

EGU25-9013 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

A novel red-edge based water anomaly detection index and diagnostic framework. 

Gelilan Ma, Chuanwu Zhao, and Yaozhong Pan

The frequent occurrence of water anomalies has posed a serious threat to human habitats. Due to the complexity of aquatic environments and the diversity of anomaly types, satellite remote sensing methods still face challenges in accurately detecting and diagnosing water anomalies. In this study, two intermediate parameters, the anomaly water index (AWI) and the advanced water turbidity index (AWTI), were developed using the red edge band of Sentinel-2 imagery. Based on these parameters, we constructed a two-step decision-tree-based diagnostic framework (ADF) to determine types of water anomalies. The proposed indices and framework were comprehensively compared with existing spectral indices and classical supervised learning algorithms in eight globally distributed study areas. The results show that the AWI is effective for identifying multiple water anomalies across diverse aquatic environments, including lakes and oceans, and outperforms existing indices in four mixed cases. Compared to existing indices, the AWTI excels in distinguishing turbid water from algal water. The ADF achieved comparable performance to supervised learning algorithms, with satisfactory time-dynamic monitoring results across four case-study areas and F1 scores exceeding 0.76. In conclusion, this study provides a valuable theoretical basis in the field of water anomaly detection and classification.

How to cite: Ma, G., Zhao, C., and Pan, Y.: A novel red-edge based water anomaly detection index and diagnostic framework., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9013, 2025.

EGU25-11370 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Towards understanding the dynamics of phosphorus legacy across German river basins 

Shixue Wu, Andreas Musolff, Pia Ebeling, Masooma Batool, Tam V. Nguyen, and Rohini Kumar

Excessive phosphorus (P) drives eutrophication in surface waters, contaminates groundwater, threatening aquatic ecosystems and drinking water quality. Legacy P from past agricultural and urban inputs has shown to create nutrient reservoirs that continue to fuel contemporary P pollution. Different forms of P, such as total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), may show distinct behavior. While SRP is critical because of its bioavailability, TP determines the overall P load in the system including P already incorporated into biomass. Understanding the long-term dynamics of TP and SRP, along with legacy sources and landscape filtering, is essential for managing water quality and reducing environmental impacts.

Using a long-term database of point and diffuse P sources (Batool et al., 2024; Sarrazin et al., 2024) and observational riverine TP and SRP concentrations (Ebeling et al., 2022), we analyzed the retention and export dynamics of P across more than 100 river catchments in Germany over the period 1950–2019. Our analysis focuses on the lag-time behavior between P inputs to the catchments and outputs by river water, incorporating effective transport time distributions (TTDs) to characterize landscape filtering processes. We employed various TTD models, ranging from log-normal to more flexible gamma distributions, and compared key characteristics such as mean, median, and mode of transport times across catchments. Our findings reveal a substantial decline in P point and diffuse sources across German landscapes over the past 70 years, which has not been matched by equivalent reductions in riverine P concentrations. In this presentation, we will discuss the spatial variability of TTs between P input and output, highlighting differences in legacy effects and contrasting contributions from point and diffuse sources in shaping the P dynamics of German river systems.

References:

Batool, M., Sarrazin, F. J., and Kumar, R.: Century Long Reconstruction of Gridded Phosphorus Surplus Across Europe (1850–2019), Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-294, in review (accepted), 2024.

Ebeling, P., Kumar, R., Lutz, S. R., Nguyen, T., Sarrazin, F., Weber, M., Büttner, O., Attinger, S., & Musolff, A. (2022). QUADICA: water QUAlity, DIscharge and Catchment Attributes for large-sample studies in Germany. Earth System Science Data, 14(8), 3715–3741. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3715-2022.

Sarrazin, F. J., Attinger, S., & Kumar, R. (2024). Gridded dataset of nitrogen and phosphorus point sources from wastewater in Germany (1950--2019). Earth System Science Data, 16(10), 4673–4708. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4673-2024.

How to cite: Wu, S., Musolff, A., Ebeling, P., Batool, M., Nguyen, T. V., and Kumar, R.: Towards understanding the dynamics of phosphorus legacy across German river basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11370, 2025.

Declines in riverine biodiversity are impacted by catchment connectivity to potential nutrient sources.  Many studies have focused on biodiversity as a direct expression of instream attributes, thus neglecting the critical role of catchment connectivity to the river network as key determinants of biodiversity. To protect and restore the ecological integrity and wider ecosystem function of riverine systems, the spatial connectivity of the stream networks to their catchments must be considered in mitigation measures. Given their extent and high connectivity with the surrounding landscape, low-order streams are particularly vulnerable to land-use pressures and demonstrate high sensitivity to nutrients (N and P), impacting the composition and seasonally persistence of benthic algal communities.

Here, we utilise the Sensitive Catchment Integrated Mapping Analysis Platform (SCIMAP) to explore the spatial risk to land-use-driven nutrient pollutant pressures across the River Eden (NW England) catchment.Our results show that the potential source areas for the examined pollutants are in specific locations in the catchment. Therefore, the most effective locations for management measures will differ for different pollutant or ecological endpoints.  This means that the Programme of Measures under the Water Framework Directive requires the integration of multiple lines of ecological evidence at the appropriate spatiotemporal scales. We demonstrate that this approach can guide prediction on instream ecological status and identify spatial sources, thus providing a more quantitatively transparent and accurate risk assessment for catchment management and mitigation

How to cite: Reaney, S., Snell, M., and Barker, P.: Identifying the source of anthropic pressures on in-stream benthic algae communities within the River Eden catchment, UK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11654, 2025.

Path4Med is a collaborative, multidisciplinary project tackling water and soil pollution in the Mediterranean agro-hydro-system. Bringing together 26 partners from 10 EU and 5 non-EU countries, the project aims to achieve zero through an innovative triple bottom line approach, ensuring economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Path4Med focuses on identifying pollution pathways from farm to sea and implementing both established and novel agricultural management technologies.

To this end, Path4Med recognised the key challenges, namely: i) Agriculture is site-specific while water flows across landscapes, making it difficult for actors to grasp the full impact of agricultural activities on the landscape-river-sea systems; ii) A lack of harmonized data from soil monitoring hinders the ability to assess soil health and inform effective interventions; iii) Overuse and mismanagement of agricultural water as well as nutrients from chemical fertilizers and livestock manures pose a great threat to soil health and water quality both in local farming communities and downstream water bodies; iv) Farmers do not have the luxury of waiting until sustainable soil management and healthy soils deliver their benefits. Factual information is required to support private-sector funding by financial institutions; v) Adoption and application of effective solutions is lagging far behind innovation and emerging technological solutions; vi) Localized or narrow-scope actions are insufficient to tackle large-scale environmental challenges, while large-scale actions often neglect the specific needs of individual farms; vii) Policymakers often start with a broad array of innovative solutions but end up compromising, which limits the effectiveness of policies in addressing agricultural challenges.  vii) Many stakeholders, including water authorities/managers, farmers, end users, policy and/or decision-makers, environmentalists and others are curious and concerned about the quality and quantity of irrigation return flows, i.e., IRFs,  known as one of the major pollutants that significantly pollute the aquatic environment.

The main ambition of Path4Med is to enable informed decision making and policy design in all scales from farm level to country level and to EU level through the following key elements:

  • Map the current status of agro-hydro-system in designated catchments.
  • Develop and mainstream novel monitoring technologies (Earth Observation, eDNA, IoT, AI).
  • Implement integrated agricultural solutions (smart irrigation, nutrient management, biochar, nature-based solutions etc.).
  • Assess the technical and socioeconomic viability of solutions through integrated modelling at different spatial and temporal scales.
  • Empower stakeholders to take action against pollution.

The approach includes an open participatory environment which will be implemented in a wide set of large-scale Demonstration Sites across the Mediterranean and other European sea basins, including an open call to replicate solutions. A digital platform will facilitate information sharing, data exchange, and knowledge dissemination.

Ultimately, Path4Med enables informed decision-making and policy design from the farm to the EU level, promoting sustainable practices and a healthy agro-hydro-system.

How to cite: Soulis, K. and the Path4Med team: Path4Med - Demonstrating Innovative Pathways Addressing Water and Soil Pollution in the Mediterranean Agro-Hydro-System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11873, 2025.

EGU25-12321 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Longitudinal Profiles of Stream Chemistry in Headwater Catchments in Germany 

Natasha Gariremo, Alexey Kuleshov, Gijs Vis, Anne Hartmann, Theresa Blume, and Luisa Hopp

Headwater streams account for 70% or more of total stream length in most catchments, making it crucial to better understand the processes and controlling factors governing streamflow generation as well as water quality. In this context, stream water chemistry longitudinal profiles can provide valuable insights. This study examines longitudinal stream chemistry profiles across six headwater catchments in three mid-mountain ranges in Germany: The Ore Mountains (catchments OM 1 and OM 2), Black Forest (BF 1 and BF 2), and Sauerland (SL 1 and SL 2).

Three to four snapshot sampling campaigns were conducted per catchment across different seasons and catchment wetness conditions. During the campaigns, water samples were collected from 22 stream monitoring points in the Ore Mountains catchments, 14 in the Black Forest, and 14 in Sauerland, and the samples were analyzed for major cations, anions, and dissolved organic carbon. Subsequently, the longitudinal profiles observed were grouped into spatial and temporal patterns.

In the Ore Mountains, solute concentrations were generally stable over time. However, the spatial patterns varied between the two neighbouring catchments (OM 1 and OM 2). OM 2 exhibited chemostatic longitudinal profiles for most solutes, while OM 1 showed pronounced spatial variability in solutes such as nitrate, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chloride, and sodium. This variability is usually linked to monitoring points located near springs, tributaries, and drainage systems. However, some spikes in ion concentrations along the stream were not linked to these obvious inflows, thus potentially indicating hotspots for groundwater inflow. The Sauerland catchments showed elevated concentrations of DOC, magnesium, calcium, and sodium in July 2023, a period associated with lower streamflow. An increase in concentration from upstream to downstream was here seen in both streams for solutes like calcium and sodium, during all snapshot campaigns. However, other solutes, like nitrate and sulfate, showed different longitudinal patterns and notable shifts in solute concentration during the snapshot campaigns in SL 2. The shifts in patterns indicate a dependency on time-variant factors like seasonal changes in water input, and land use practices. BF 1 catchment in the Black Forest showed a decreasing pattern in DOC, from upstream to downstream, while the neighbouring catchment BF 2 showed a chemostatic trend. These trends could be influenced by the land use changes within the catchments. Notable increased nitrate concentrations were seen along reaches adjacent to grassland areas and at sampling points near tile drains in OM 1, BF 1, SL 1, and SL 2.

Overall, solute spatial and temporal patterns were stream-specific, with no universal behaviour observed across all catchments. This variability likely results from the interplay of factors such as geology, soils, land use, stream morphology, and climate. High-resolution spatial sampling enabled the identification of point sources and hotspots of groundwater inflow which could be missed by sparse sampling. These findings enhance our understanding of the processes regulating water quality and flow in headwater systems, providing a basis for better management of these systems.

How to cite: Gariremo, N., Kuleshov, A., Vis, G., Hartmann, A., Blume, T., and Hopp, L.: Longitudinal Profiles of Stream Chemistry in Headwater Catchments in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12321, 2025.

EGU25-14665 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Harnessing Machine Learning for Water Quality Prediction in Agricultural Watersheds 

Ahmed Elsayed, Jana Levison, Andrew Binns, Marie Larocque, and Pradeep Goel

In North America, the Great Lakes contain approximately 20% of the available surface fresh water in the world. As a result, the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) is a well-known region for its extensive agricultural and food production activities. Such agricultural activities are considered one of the most significant non-point sources of nutrient transport, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, to surface water and groundwater. This is mainly because of the application of synthetic fertilizers and manure for enhanced crop productivity and soil fertility. Such elevated nutrient concentrations can disrupt aquatic ecosystems, degrade surface and groundwater quality, and harm both human and aquatic life. However, quantification of nutrient concentrations in agricultural watersheds is challenging because it is influenced by different process parameters including soil type, climate, and land use conditions. These parameters are highly non-linear and uncertain which hinders the applicability of typical mathematical models in nutrient transport applications in surface water and groundwater quality. Therefore, data-driven models using machine learning (ML) algorithms have been extensively applied to unravel the complexities of nutrient transport in surface water and groundwater, tackling the main challenges associated with the mathematical models. This is mainly because ML algorithms can deal with complex datasets with high uncertainty and non-linearity while considering the interdependence between the process parameters. By leveraging historical datasets, ML algorithms can model the explain the cause-result and intricate interdependencies between process parameters, making them well-suited for simulating nutrient transport processes in surface and sub-surface water applications. In the current study, different ML algorithms were adopted to predict nutrient concentrations in surface water and groundwater in a sand plain agricultural watershed within the GLB in Ontario, Canada. These ML algorithms included regression (e.g., artificial neural network) and classification (e.g., decision trees) techniques to better simulate nutrient concentrations in surface water and groundwater. The ML input variables involved meteorological (e.g., precipitation), hydrogeological (e.g., groundwater levels), and water physico-chemical (e.g., pH) conditions. The performance of these ML algorithms was evaluated using different evaluation metrics such as root-mean squared error and F1-score for regression and classification models, respectively. The optimal ML models were selected according to the outcomes of these evaluation metrics. In addition, the interdependence between the involved process parameters (e.g., land use and precipitation) and nutrient concentrations was interpreted to determine the governing parameters on the nutrient transport process in surface and sub-surface water. The main outcomes of this study can help decision-makers in assessing the most effective management efforts to protect and improve surface water and groundwater quality in agricultural watersheds. In addition, these insights enable the interpolation of nutrient concentrations from discrete sampling points, facilitating predictions at unmonitored locations across the watersheds.

How to cite: Elsayed, A., Levison, J., Binns, A., Larocque, M., and Goel, P.: Harnessing Machine Learning for Water Quality Prediction in Agricultural Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14665, 2025.

EGU25-15121 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

A Reactive Transport Modelling Approach for Biogeochemical Transformation in an Agricultural Catchment 

Thanh Quynh Duong, Abigail Saenger Knapp, Kayalvizhi Sadayappan, Valerie Diana Smykalov, Anke Hildebrandt, Li Li, and Martin Thullner

The export of nutrients from terrestrial ecosystems is characterized by complex interactions between hydrological transport and biogeochemical transformations, posing considerable challenges to the effective management of water quality and the prediction of climate change. Excess nutrient inputs from agricultural activities into freshwater systems have the potential to impact the safe functioning of ecosystem services, while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. However, quantification of these coupled processes remains challenging due to the variability in residence time of multiple flow paths and the limited ability to observe hydrological and biogeochemical processes in situ because of the involved long timescales and the inaccessibility of the subsurface. In this study, the catchment-scale hydro-biogeochemical reactive transport model (BioRT-HBV), which is based on a parsimonious structure and has minimal data requirements, is employed to explore the role of different processes in nitrogen reaction rates and concentrations in subsurface waters and rivers. The model uses hydrometeorology, discharge, and stream chemistry data from 2008 to 2023, as well as geological conditions from the Nägelstedt catchment, which is located in central Germany and is recognized as one of its most intensively used agricultural regions. The hydrological model demonstrates a good correlation between simulated and observed stream discharge, with high model efficiency. Snowmelt appears to be an important hydrological factor in regulating the discharge flows at the Nägelstedt catchment, leading to additional surface flow and shallow subsurface flow occur during brief periods corresponding with snowmelt events, while the deep subsurface flow contributes almost 80 percent of the annual discharge. Preliminary results show that high stream nitrate concentrations occur when shallow flowpaths connect the shallower soils to the stream, while low nitrate stream concentrations occur during baseflow and lower-flow conditions, when the stream is predominantly fed by deeper flowpaths, resulting in a flushing concentration-discharge pattern. This suggests that nitrate loss processes are driven by the long-term retention or depletion of nitrogen in soils and groundwater within this catchment. The model provides a foundation for comprehending the interdependence of complex nonlinear biogeochemical and hydrological processes and serves as a step toward the prediction of the impact of climatic perturbation and land use changes on chemical exports to river.

How to cite: Duong, T. Q., Knapp, A. S., Sadayappan, K., Smykalov, V. D., Hildebrandt, A., Li, L., and Thullner, M.: A Reactive Transport Modelling Approach for Biogeochemical Transformation in an Agricultural Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15121, 2025.

EGU25-15610 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Health Assessment of Agriculture-Dominated Watersheds in a Data-Scarce Region 

Lingaraj Dhal and Mitthan Lal Kansal

Watershed health assessment is essential for getting a clear understanding of the present condition of watershed systems, which enables the effective allocation of resources and prioritization of management actions in a river basin. This study used an innovative framework for evaluating watershed health in data-scarce regions by considering the complex interrelations among geophysical, environmental, climatic, and anthropogenic factors. The framework brings together the Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Fuzzy Logic, addressing the challenges of managing interdependent variables.

The methodology is applied to 30 sub-watersheds of the Budhabalanga River Basin, located along the east coast of India. The ANP is used to analyse the intricate interplay among climate variables, topographic factors, non-point pollution sources, and human activities. Further, the Fuzzy Logic is employed to classify sub-watersheds based on their health status. Results show variations in watershed health, with upstream sub-watersheds being healthier compared to those in the middle and downstream regions of the river basin.

The proposed Fuzzy-ANP framework proved to be an effective tool for assessing watershed health in data-scarce regions. It provides a practical approach to sustainable resource management and can be easily adapted to other river basins. Thus providing valuable insights for enhancing watershed resilience and supporting better decision-making.

How to cite: Dhal, L. and Kansal, M. L.: Health Assessment of Agriculture-Dominated Watersheds in a Data-Scarce Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15610, 2025.

EGU25-16699 | Orals | HS2.3.1

Mechanistic controls on river water quality dynamics across catchments 

Julia Knapp and Fred Worrall

Rivers provide essential ecosystem services, supporting biodiversity, regulating water flow, and supplying resources important for human societies. However, anthropogenic pressures and climate change are increasingly impacting riverine ecosystems, leading to widespread decline in water quality. While substantial progress has been made in understanding long-term water quality trends, our understanding of water quality variations within different catchments is still limited. Moreover, there is a lack of insight into how these variations relate to each other across catchments, making it difficult to predict and manage water quality dynamics at larger spatial scales. Most studies to date have focused on individual sites or small catchment networks, providing valuable insights into site-specific functioning. However, these site-specific studies only offer limited support for understanding and predicting water quality dynamics across larger spatial scales and complex river networks. Understanding the drivers of these complex water quality dynamics is crucial for effective river management and the protection of aquatic ecosystems.

This study addresses this gap by analysing high-frequency water quality data from over 50 sites across England. We focus on key parameters, such as dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, and chlorophyll-a, and investigate how water quality fluctuates on diurnal, seasonal, and event-based timescales. We explore the role of event and catchment conditions—such as precipitation, temperature, antecedent conditions, and seasonal variation—in driving water quality variability, and how their importance shifts across time and space.

This research advances our mechanistic understanding of the complex and dynamic processes that govern water quality in rivers across England, with implications for water resource management, environmental monitoring, and the development of more effective strategies for mitigating pollution and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

 

How to cite: Knapp, J. and Worrall, F.: Mechanistic controls on river water quality dynamics across catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16699, 2025.

EGU25-17391 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Dispersion dynamics of reactive solutes in tidal wetlands under pulsatile wind conditions 

Sourav Hossain and Christina W. Tsai

Tidal wetlands serve as critical interfaces between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, playing a significant role in nutrient cycling and pollutant attenuation. This study investigates the dynamics of reactive solute dispersion in tidal wetlands, specifically examining the influence of reversible and irreversible reactions under pulsatile wind conditions. By employing Mei's multi-scale homogenization technique [1], we aim to elucidate how unsteady wind patterns affect the transport and reaction mechanisms of solutes in these unique environments. The impacts of reaction parameters, such as the Damköhler number (Da) and irreversible reaction rate, along with wind parameters and vegetation factors, on solute mixing have been analyzed. It has been found that an increase in the wind oscillation period (τw) corresponds to a decrease in the frequency of wind oscillations, which no longer effectively resist flow pulsation but instead enhance it when the wind aligns with the flow direction, regardless of its strength. When the wind opposes the primary flow, an interesting trend in the dispersion coefficient has been observed for varying wind oscillation periods and amplitudes. The dispersion coefficient first decreases with increasing wind strength, reaches a minimum, and then begins to increase. Vegetation-induced drag is more pronounced when the wind opposes the flow. This significantly reduces dispersion compared to wind flowing in the same direction as the primary flow. Results also indicate that slow phase exchange kinetics (Da<<1)  lead to higher dispersion coefficients compared to fast kinetics (Da>>1)  in both wind directions. Introducing an irreversible reaction rate causes absorption at the wetland bed, lowering the solute concentration near the channel bed. This creates a depletion effect, where solutes are continuously removed from the fluid phase, leading to an overall reduction in fluid-phase concentration throughout the wetland system.

How to cite: Hossain, S. and W. Tsai, C.: Dispersion dynamics of reactive solutes in tidal wetlands under pulsatile wind conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17391, 2025.

In many European regions, the ecological cycles are changing significantly because of advancing climate change, the ongoing landscape transformation, and intensive agricultural use. Runoff components redistribute towards more surface runoff (more heavy rainfall, less snow cover, compaction, crusting) and thus significantly reduced groundwater recharge, faster runoff concentration (accelerated concentration, secondary water network through drainage ditches and drains, shorter and steeper flow paths), and thus a lower landscape retention capacity. As a result, more soil, nutrients and pollutants are eroded, especially from arable land, threatening the ecosystems and the associated ecosystem services along the watercourses.

The increasingly strict environmental legislation in the EU has recently led to farmers’ protests across Europe, and subsequently to a hasty softening at all governmental levels. The protest is also directed against environmental regulations, as their predicted effect in many cases cannot be substantiated with quantitative figures and there is a lack of coherent concepts for combining measures in small catchments, quantified combined effectiveness analyses, and an understandable roadmap towards the ecosystems’ sustainable use.

The existing data sets are often fragmented, short, focus on individual measures under strictly limited conditions. In particular, the results of studies evaluating agricultural management methods can only rarely be applied to entire catchment areas or landscapes, as neither the cross-scale processes are understood nor do corresponding data sets exist at the landscape scale. Hence, there is no basis for making informed decisions.

Two new open-air laboratories are currently being built in southeast Germany: the almost completed Erosion and Runoff Laboratory (EARL) uses long-term measurements of water and nutrient fluxes of 36 sloping (approx. 10%) agricultural plots (each 660 m²) to monitor the effect of different agricultural systems on the runoff components, soil erosion, as well as the discharge of nutrients and pollutants. The Water and Environmental Landscape Laboratory (WELL) focuses on the effects of management methods combined with measures, monitoring 22 similarly sloped sub-catchment areas (each 0.3 to 0.5 km²) predominantly used for arable farming. In combination with the nearby Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL), this results in a unique combination of three long-term experimental laboratories in the same natural entity: EARL on the plot scale, HOAL on the slope scale, and WELL on the landscape scale. We would like to present the status of the projects in order to facilitate cooperation for research applications at the European level.

How to cite: Mitterer, J. and Ebertseder, F.: Capturing Hydrological and Sedimentological Connectivity from Cropland Plots to Catchments - Integrating Experimental Sites into a Multi-Scale Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17723, 2025.

EGU25-17984 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Spatial-temporal synchrony between Nitrate and Discharge Varies with environmental and anthropogenic controls 

Lu Yang, Joshua Larsen, Kieran Khamis, and Julia L. A. Knapp

Nitrogen cycling has been dramatically altered by anthropogenic activities, impacting water quality and ecosystem functioning of river systems worldwide. Understanding the (a)synchrony between discharge (Q) and nitrate concentration (N) is crucial to revealing the temporal-spatial processes that govern nitrogen dynamics and identify the controlling factors to improve monitoring and management strategies. Here data collected from 66 river catchments across England, spanning 20 years, were analysed to characterise Q-N synchrony patterns and assess spatiotemporal variability. QMax-synced catchments (i.e. max N occurred with max Q, accounting for 28.8% of catchments) are mainly smaller, agricultural catchments, where high-flow conditions can mobilise accumulated nitrate from agricultural soils. By contrast, QMin-synced catchments (i.e. max N occurred with min Q, 25.8% of catchments) have higher proportions of urban area and displayed stronger point-source influences. These catchments are generally larger and have a higher proportion of surface runoff during high-flow periods, diluting nitrate-rich point sources and shifting peak nitrate concentrations to the period of lowest flow. Asynced catchments (46.8%) are also generally larger but with a larger mixture of land use and therefore point and diffuse nitrate sources. Furthermore, the synchrony variability is primarily influenced by sharp topography in QMax-synced catchments, while anthropogenic activities like sewage treatment plant density mainly impact that in QMin-synced and Asynced catchments. Our results demonstrate that the seasonal timing of peak nitrate has a strong and highly contrasting dependence on hydrological conditions that shift with catchment size and availability of diffuse and point sources, with important implications for monitoring and management.

How to cite: Yang, L., Larsen, J., Khamis, K., and Knapp, J. L. A.: Spatial-temporal synchrony between Nitrate and Discharge Varies with environmental and anthropogenic controls, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17984, 2025.

EGU25-19001 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Thirty years of Agricultural Environmental Monitoring: Insights into Water Quality and Erosion in Norway 

Hanne Ugstad, Marie-Cécile Gruselle, Marianne Bechmann, and Franziska K. Fischer

Excessive nutrient and sediment loads are threatening water quality of inland and coastal waters since decades in Norway. The Norwegian Agricultural Environmental Monitoring Programme (JOVA), established in 1992, aims to measure nutrient and sediment losses from agricultural production systems and evaluate the effectiveness of environmental policies. With only 3% of Norway’s land area suitable for agricultural production, preserving agricultural land from degradation, especially erosion, is crucial. Norwegian agricultural land has been shown to experience high suspended sediment losses (on average 100- 2970 kg/ha/yr), underscoring the need for agricultural catchments monitoring to unravel temporal trends in soil losses, disentangle effects of environmental and management factors, and identify best management practices to maintain good water quality and prevent further soil degradation. The monitoring programme is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Agriculture and Food and conveys a solid base of knowledge for water management and policy makers. Monitoring data are also widely used for research purposes and to develop, calibrate and validate national nutrient export and erosion models.  

Catchments (currently eleven) were selected to represent key agricultural regions in terms of climate and production systems. JOVA includes catchments dominated by cereal production in eastern and mid-Norway, vegetable production in southern Norway, intensive and extensive dairy farming including grass production in western and northern Norway. Water monitoring stations were constructed at the outlet of each catchment. At these stations, runoff rate is measured, and flow-proportional composite samples are taken and analysed fortnightly (suspended solids, ashes, total P, PO4-P, total N, NO3-N, pH, electrical conductivity). The above-mentioned data is publicly available at https://jovadata.nibio.no/ free of charge. Agricultural management data, including details on dates of tillage, sowing, fertilization, harvest, and pesticide applications, are available upon written request. Water samples from catchments (currently five) are also analysed for a broad spectrum of pesticides. 

Over 30 years of water quality monitoring provided important insights and temporal trends into hydrological regimes, changing agricultural management practices and nutrient and sediment losses from typical agricultural areas in Norway. An increased frequency of large runoff events (>95th percentile) has been observed in some of the catchments, which corresponded with high losses of soil particles and tend to decrease with the prevalence of plant coverage or stubbles. Monitoring data also revealed a response in the frequency of management practices following shifts in subsidy schemes for environmental measures (e.g. incentives for less autumn ploughing in cereal production).  

Long-term water quality monitoring remains essential due to disproportionally large effects of climate change on ecosystems in the Nordic region. Future applications of JOVA monitoring could address the impacts of land use, socio-economic factors and innovative management practices on sediment and nutrient losses, and could further support modelling efforts.  Furthermore, the technical setup of the monitoring enables the comparison between traditional methods and emerging technology, such as sensors. Transnational scientific collaborations among monitoring programmes can pave the way for a more sustainable agriculture at broader regional scales. 

How to cite: Ugstad, H., Gruselle, M.-C., Bechmann, M., and Fischer, F. K.: Thirty years of Agricultural Environmental Monitoring: Insights into Water Quality and Erosion in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19001, 2025.

In this, karst systems located in the Akyaka district, Ula county, Muğla city, SW Turkey were investigated  because the systems are unique geological formations created by the dissolution of soluble rocks through the action of surface water or groundwater. These formations, typically developed in carbonate rocks and gypsum over extended periods, are shaped by environmental and climatic factors.  For this study, 16 measurement points were determined and collected water samples from the points. The collected water samples were chemically analyzed for major ions. Analyzed of the data indicated that the groundwater quality in the studied area demonstrates low to moderate ionic and physicochemical content, making it suitable for diverse uses, including domestic and irrigation purposes. Electrical Conductivity (EC) values, ranging from 248 to 1054 µS/cm, with an average of 508.69 µS/cm, indicate moderate salinity. Classification per the U.S. Salinity Laboratory Staff (1954) places most samples (85.72%) in the medium-salinity category (C2), with limited samples in low (C1) and high salinity (C3) categories. Compared to prior studies, such as those by Altun et al. (2017), the EC values align closely, suggesting consistent regional groundwater quality. Calcium (Ca²⁺) and magnesium (Mg²⁺) concentrations range from 1.58–8.85 mg/L and 0.21–6.2 mg/L, respectively, with averages suggesting soft to moderately hard water. These levels ensure lower scaling potential in plumbing, supporting both residential and industrial applications. While the concentrations exceed the WHO’s recommended limits for drinking water, their moderate variability contributes to a balanced ionic composition. Sodium (Na⁺) and potassium (K⁺) are present at lower concentrations, with averages of 0.87 mg/L and 0.10 mg/L, respectively. Chloride (Cl⁻), sulfate (SO₄²⁻), bicarbonate (HCO₃⁻), and carbonate (CO₃²⁻) show significant variability, with HCO₃⁻ dominating among anions, indicative of carbonate mineral dissolution. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) range between 172 and 739 mg/L, categorizing all samples as freshwater. The chronological order of major ions follows Ca²⁺ > Na⁺ > Mg²⁺ > K⁺ for cations and HCO₃⁻ > Cl⁻ > SO₄²⁻ for anions. Elevated bicarbonate and calcium levels highlight carbonate rock dissolution, supported by the geological context, which includes extensive carbonate formations like dolomites and limestones. The Piper diagram analysis underscores the dominance of Ca-Mg-HCO₃ groundwater type, revealing the influence of alkaline earth metals and weak acids over alkali metals and strong acids. Water salinity indices further reflect the suitability of groundwater for agricultural use. The majority of samples (85.714%) fall within the medium salinity hazard category (C2), appropriate for irrigation with moderate leaching. However, higher salinity samples, such as GK1 and KZ1, with EC values of 1054 µS/cm and 737 µS/cm, respectively, are limited to salt-tolerant crops and require careful management in soils with restricted drainage. Importantly, none of the samples fall into the high-salinity hazard category (C4), indicating overall positive irrigation potential. Geological formations, including Quaternary alluvium, Jurassic-Triassic dolomitic limestone, and Mesozoic peridotites, shape groundwater chemistry. For example, the low EC value at UB01 (248 µS/cm) reflects limited interaction between surface water and surrounding carbonate-rich formations. 

How to cite: Erdem Altın, G.: Mapping Groundwater Concentration in the District of Ula, Muğla, Türkiye Using Spatial Interpolation Methods and Geostatistics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19769, 2025.

EGU25-19840 | Posters on site | HS2.3.1

Tracking ephemeral gullies formation and development in agricultural conditions using the mathematical model AnnAGNPS 

Javier Casalí, Iñigo Barberena, Karel van Wiltenburg, Alvaro Chocarro, and Miguel A. Campo-Bescós

On cultivated land, ephemeral gullies contribute significantly to soil erosion. Despite their importance, existing models for predicting the location of ephemeral gully initiation and development are very sparse and have limitations. The USDA-ARS National Sedimentation Laboratory and the University of Nottingham developed GIS-based topographic analyses to map potential ephemeral gully locations. In the 1980s they proposed an indicator called Compound Topographic Index (CTI), which was proposed as a predictor of gully location, and which is defined, for a certain pixel located in a watershed, as the product of the watershed area at that point, the local slope and the local curvature. It can be seen that this product is a proxy for the power of the stream at that point. From a digital elevation model it is possible to calculate for each pixel the value of its CTI. Researchers at the aforementioned centers found that pixels exceeding a CTI value, called critical CTI, very often corresponded to the location of areas eroded by ephemeral gullies.

This work aims to test the suitability of the CTI-based method to locate the gullies observed in typical conditions of an agricultural plot as a starting point to evaluate the performance of the QAnnAGNPS model, which develops a whole technology based on this methodology. Although such methodology is old, evaluations of it in real agricultural situations are extraordinarily scarce. In addition, it is still necessary to verify in field conditions that the modeling approach based on headcut occurence and migration, localized by means of CTI, is correct.  Thus, an experiment has been initiated in November 2023 in which, first of all, an agricultural plot has been selected in an area of highly erodible silty loam soils located in Pitillas (Navarra). The plot has been tilled with conventional tillage to replicate the initial conditions of an average agricultural plot, which has been kept free of vegetation by using herbicide. After each precipitation event, drone flights have been carried out to obtain digital elevation models (DEM) with a resolution of less than one centimeter and orthomosaics. The DEMs and orthomosaics generated in each flight make it possible to locate the origin of the gullies formed and to determine their dimensions and their temporal evolution, in this case until November 2024, when the plot was tilled again to restart the observations.

 

These observed data were compared with the data simulated by QAnnAGNPS. For each gully, we first obtained the critical CTI by selecting the one that best explains the origin of the gully. On the other hand, for each gully and time, we have the CTI threshold value that best follows the gully's path.  It has been confirmed that CTI gives good results for locating ephemeral gullies in real agricultural conditions and is a good way to predict the path of a gully. Our observations confirm that ephemeral gullies were always formed from generation and migration upstream of headcut, so the theoretical basis of models such as AnnAGNPS is valid.

How to cite: Casalí, J., Barberena, I., van Wiltenburg, K., Chocarro, A., and Campo-Bescós, M. A.: Tracking ephemeral gullies formation and development in agricultural conditions using the mathematical model AnnAGNPS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19840, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19840, 2025.

This study derives an analytical solution of the two-dimensional concentration distribution of a pollutant in a prismatic channel flow with asymmetric velocity pattern over its cross-section. This study also examines pollutant transport phenomena influenced by both irreversible and reversible reactions, along with the bulk chemical reaction of the pollutant with the channel boundaries and the fluid flows, respectively. The effects of mean and transverse concentration distributions are analyzed under the influence of various parameters, including adsorption, desorption, absorption, the asymmetric velocity distribution parameters (α and β), and the bulk chemical reaction parameter. The transverse concentration distribution up to the second-order approximation is derived using Mei's homogenization technique. Over the past two decades, researchers have emphasized that the Taylor dispersion model primarily predicts the longitudinal dispersion of the mean concentration. However, the study of transverse concentration distribution has gained significant importance due to its relevance in environmental engineering and industrial applications. According to the investigation’s findings, an increase in  α and β  enhances the overall velocity, resulting in a sharper velocity profile when α = β or a more asymmetric profile when α ≠ β . The dispersion coefficient  shows non-monotonic behavior influenced by the velocity parameters   α and β . Smaller   α and β  yield moderate velocity gradients and weaker shear, reducing dispersion. As   α and β  increase, sharper or asymmetric velocity profiles enhance shear effects, increasing dispersion. The mean concentration of the pollutant decreases with increasing   α and β  in both cases, but the decrease is more gradual in the asymmetric case. Increasing bed absorption and bulk chemical reaction parameters significantly reduces the transverse concentration, while increasing adsorption or desorption parameters raises the transverse concentration. Adsorption and desorption reactions at the boundaries reduce transverse concentration variation in both symmetric and asymmetric cases. The variation decreases with increased reaction rates, with slight non-uniformity observed when α ≠ β. The findings are crucial for enhancing natural stream quality, reducing pollution, and mitigating the effects of reactions.

How to cite: Barik, S. and Srinivasa Raghavan, R.: Pollutant transport in asymmetric velocity distributions influenced by phase exchange kinetics between two parallel plates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20033, 2025.

EGU25-20250 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.1

Groundwater Contamination Processes in Depleting Alluvial Aquifers, Haouz Plain Morocco 

Hamza Sahraoui, Younes Fakir, Houssne Bouimouass, Sarah Tweed, and Marc Leblanc

This study examines the effects of groundwater depletion on salinity and nitrate contamination in a detritic unconfined alluvial aquifer. Over the past five decades, the aquifer has transitioned from shallow groundwater (<20 m) in the 1970s to predominantly deep groundwater (>40 m) due to significant water table declines. Groundwater analysis reveals moderate contamination, with nitrate levels highest in shallow zones but detectable at all depths. Dominant hydrochemical processes influencing salinity include rock weathering, halite dissolution, and reverse ion exchange.  
The Haouz Plain, located in central Morocco, covers a significant area within the Tensift Basin. Characterized by an arid to semi-arid climate, it is a center of intensive agricultural and industrial activities, making its water resources highly susceptible to contamination risks.
The thick unsaturated zone formed by water table decline has mitigated surface-borne contamination and reduced evapotranspiration impacts. However, vertical flow dynamics induced by pumping have allowed younger, nitrate-rich groundwater to mix with older, deeper groundwater. Tritium dating indicates that nitrate in deep groundwater likely originates from historical fertilizer use, highlighting the long-term legacy of agricultural practices on water quality.  
Continued aquifer depletion poses serious risks. Pumping deep groundwater could mobilize salts, increasing salinity. Moreover, contaminants accumulated in the thick unsaturated zone could migrate downward over time or with increased recharge, further degrading groundwater quality. These findings emphasize the vulnerability of depleted aquifers to salinization and nitrate contamination, underscoring the need for sustainable groundwater management strategies.  

Keywords: Pollution, irrigation, hydrochemistry, salinity, quality.

 

How to cite: Sahraoui, H., Fakir, Y., Bouimouass, H., Tweed, S., and Leblanc, M.: Groundwater Contamination Processes in Depleting Alluvial Aquifers, Haouz Plain Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20250, 2025.

EGU25-20325 | Orals | HS2.3.1 | Highlight

The blind spot in water sustainability: why do we have such low desire for good water quality? 

Jesús Carrera, Axel Bronstert, Audrey Sawyer, Stefan Krause, Inge deGraaf, Yan Zheng, Chunmiao Zheng, Eric Morales-Casique, and Brijesh K Yadav

We review anthropogenic water pollution, and find that it is spreading in rivers and aquifers at an alarming rate. Actions advocated by the United Nations have thus far resulted in more improvements in water quality of surface water than that of groundwater. Here, we argue that the nature of anthropogenic pollution has evolved over time, so that traditional indicators such as biological oxygen demand are no longer adequate. We further argue that overexploitation of groundwater and climate change (extremes and, possibly, reduction of rainfall and/or increase in evapotranspiration) are causing a reduction of the environmental services of groundwater dependent aquatic ecosystems and, specifically, the pollutant removal capacity. Therefore, concerted efforts are needed to restore natural surface water-groundwater interactions. To this end, we need to either reduce pumping (e.g., through conjunctive use) or expand managed aquifer recharge. While these measures would help in improving water quantity and quality simultaneously, current regulations favor neither because of concerns about their possible negative impacts. Determining how to implement these solutions is itself a challenge. Considering that the scientific literature is still centered upon water scarcity and declining water levels, we call for a common front of researchers in hydrology and sister sciences to address this fast-evolving pollution crisis in our water systems. As Bill Clinton famously said,”it’s the pollution, stupid!”.

How to cite: Carrera, J., Bronstert, A., Sawyer, A., Krause, S., deGraaf, I., Zheng, Y., Zheng, C., Morales-Casique, E., and Yadav, B. K.: The blind spot in water sustainability: why do we have such low desire for good water quality?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20325, 2025.

 Rivers play a crucial role in in global matter cycling and energy flow, contributing significantly to biogeochemical
 cycles and the development of human civilization. Reservoirs, as prevalent artificial water bodies, modify river
 flow and impact energy and environmental dynamics. These reservoirs can directly affect riverine ecosystems by
 retaining algal materials, thereby altering Chl-a concentrations in downstream water bodies. Nevertheless, the
 mechanisms by which reservoirs influence Chl-a concentrations in rivers remain poorly understood. This study
 utilized Landsat 8/9 images and in-situ measurements from the Pearl River to develop a machine learning model
 and generate a Chl-a concentration dataset spanning 2013-2022. We also examined the mechanisms through which
 reservoirs and the natural environmental factors affect Chl-a concentrations by regulating the Pearl River. The
 findings indicate that anthropogenic factors, primarily the construction of reservoirs and dams, play a significant
 role in shaping the spatial distribution of riverine Chl-a concentrations along the Pearl River. As the river traverses
 reservoirs in the upper and middle reaches, Chl-a concentrations in both the mainstem and tributary sections
 exhibit a distinct decrease. The highest Chl-a concentrations were observed in the headwaters of the Xijiang River,
 followed by a decline in the midstream, and a subsequent increase downstream. It also revealed that, river Chl-a
 levels are consistently lower before entering a reservoir, higher within it, and further decreased after exiting.
 Reservoirs, by intercepting and storing upstream sediment and nutrients, allow only a small amounts to pass
 through dams into downstream sections, thereby influencing riverine Chl-a concentrations. Furthermore, Chl-a
 concentrations in the Pearl River peak during summer and reach their lowest levels in winter, with water
 temperature being the dominant driver of seasonal and interannual Chl-a variations (r = 0.88, p < 0.01). Other
 environmental factors such as pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and Chl-a
 concentrations were found to be positively correlated. Our findings indicate that cascade reservoirs have a more
 significant impact on river environmental status. To effectively address river water quality degradation and
 maximize the benefits of reservoirs, coordinated water diversion and protective measures between the reservoirs
 are required.

How to cite: Li, Z.: Assessing the Impacts of Cascade Reservoirs on Pearl River Environmental Status Using Machine Learning and Satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a Concentrations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-505, 2025.

EGU25-1113 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Green remediation of River Water Contaminants: A Lab-Scale Wetland Approach for Metal and Excess Nutrient Removal 

Dikshant Bodana, Abhishek N Srivastava, Rajendran Vinnarasi, and Sharad Kumar Jain

River basins have been extensively altered by unsustainable surge inagriculture, industrialization and urbanization. Green remediation, particularly phytoremediation, is an eco-friendly and efficient approach that utilizes plants and their associated microbes to remove, detoxify, or immobilize toxins from soil, water, or air, thereby enhancing water quality by addressing contaminants such as metals and nutrients. A lab-scale wetland study was carried out to determine the efficacy of a specific plant species for phytoremediation. This study analyzed pollutant parameters, including metals (As, Al, Ca, Cd, Co, Cu,Fe, Pb, Mg, Hg, Ni, Na) and nutrients like nitrogen (nitrates and ammoniacalnitrogen) and phosphorus (total phosphorus and available phosphorus). CannaIndica, an aquatic macrophyte, was used for its nutrient and metal removal capabilities. A wetland simulator, fabricated from acrylic sheets (length: ~1m,height: ~0.75m, width: ~0.50m), was used to grow Canna Indicaplants. Thewetland simulator was filled with a  150 L volume (40% of reactor volume) ofgrowing medium (soil, sand, gravel), arranged in a block design. A water samplefrom Ratanpuri in the Hindon River, known for its high pollution levels in northern India, was used for the wetland study, which was analyzed for metalsand nutrients before, during, and after the experiments. The experiments were performed for 20 days (three runs), depending upon their treatment efficiency.This study's findings demonstrated that metals' removal efficiency is 50-55 percent (absorbed by plants). Similarly, the efficacy of nutrient removal,specifically nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, using phytoremediation is evaluated in this study, with removal rates ranging from 60-74 percent. The findings highlight phytoremediation's performance as a highly sustainabletechnology for remediating contaminated water bodies or soil structures. As urbanization and industrialization accelerate, rising river contamination levels have increased the lateral flow of pollutants from riverbanks into groundwater. So, implementing field-scale green remediation strategies using Canna Indica plants along riverbanks mitigates contaminant movement, ensuring soil and water quality restoration amidst rising anthropogenic demands.

How to cite: Bodana, D., N Srivastava, A., Vinnarasi, R., and Kumar Jain, S.: Green remediation of River Water Contaminants: A Lab-Scale Wetland Approach for Metal and Excess Nutrient Removal, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1113, 2025.

EGU25-2453 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Groundwater contributions to the carbon budget of the Greater Bay Area, China 

Yang Zhan and Zhilin Guo

Total organic carbon (TOC) in surface water significantly impacts the global carbon cycle, ecosystem productivity, and potable water quality. Although physically based watershed models, such as the Terrestrial-Aquatic Sciences Convergence (TASC) model, can simulate carbon cycling in surface waters, challenges persist in representing groundwater contributions due to limitations in TASC's groundwater module. Additionally, like its foundation, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the TASC model struggles to accurately represent distributary stream systems. In this study, we modified the TASC model to examine the carbon budget of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), a densely populated coastal delta of the Pearl River. The modified model successfully simulated the carbon dynamics of the region’s distributary stream system, estimating a dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux of 1.05 × 10⁹ g/day across eight watershed outlets. TOC in the western outlets was primarily influenced by suspended sediments, while TOC in the eastern outlets originated mainly from agricultural runoff and domestic sewage. Furthermore, seasonal variations revealed important patterns in hydrological contributions. Groundwater flow contributed significantly to river discharge during the winter months (November to January), occasionally surpassing overland runoff. Remarkably, groundwater DOC fluxes dominated riverine DOC throughout the year, accounting for 41% to 62% of the total DOC contribution. This study highlights groundwater as a vital pathway for the transport and release of dissolved carbon into rivers, representing a potentially significant carbon loss within watersheds.

How to cite: Zhan, Y. and Guo, Z.: Groundwater contributions to the carbon budget of the Greater Bay Area, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2453, 2025.

The analysis of nutrient dynamics during precipitation events using normalised cumulative loads (NCL) is a classic and frequently used method of water quality analysis. Normalised pollutographs combine the cumulative nutrient load and cumulative runoff of an event in one plot to better interpret the nutrient export dynamics of a catchment. Essentially, the strength of a first-flush event or an ongoing dilution can be quantified using NCL. However, different runoff generation processes may be superimposed, hampering process analysis. Thus, our approach combines the classical pollutograph with hydrograph separation using stable water isotopes. The pollutograph is set up for each of the separated runoff components (pre-event water and event water) and the export dynamics of the runoff components of the same event are compared with the dynamics of the total runoff via the calculated area under the curve. K-Means cluster analyses were used both to categorise the functional behaviour of the runoff components and to identify any changes in export dynamics between the runoff components.

This method was applied in the catchment area of the ‘Nesselbach’, which is located near Hofgeismar (district of Kassel) in the northern foothills of the West Hessian depression. The catchment area is primarily characterised by agricultural land use, which is accompanied by a small forest and a small settlement. All necessary climate parameters were recorded by a weather station located in the catchment. The sampling period extended from 1 February 2021 to 1 August 2022. Measurements of nitrate concentrations and runoff were recorded using high-resolution optical in situ probes (resolution: 5 min), supported by automatic samplers to collect phosphorus, major ions and isotope samples during 15 precipitation events (resolution: 15 min). All parameters were additionally calibrated by regular manual sampling with laboratory values.

Using the extended method, our results show clear differences in the export dynamics of phosphorus and nitrate, as well as unexpected results in the direct comparison of export dynamics between total runoff and event water. Phosphorus shows similar dynamics in the event water as in the total runoff (of the same event), with a tendency to more extreme values. For nitrate, on the other hand, the dynamics of nitrate export sometimes changed drastically; export dynamics tending towards dilution in the total runoff show wash-off tendencies in the event water and vice versa. The same approach was also used to investigate the export dynamics of the ions Na, Ca, SO4, K, Mg and Cl, which served to increase the sample size of the analyses carried out and thus to confirm the robustness of the method.

How to cite: Ditzel, L., Spill, C., and Gaßmann, M.: A methodological extension of the classic normalised cumulative loads analysis: combination of normalised cumulative loads and hydrograph separation for nutrient exports during precipitation events., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2531, 2025.

In many regions of the Netherlands, ammonium concentrations in surface water exceed the EU Water Framework Directive standard of 0.3 mg NH4-N/L, which has an ecological origin. In many Dutch polders, there is significant seepage of groundwater that may contain naturally high concentrations of ammonium. This combination leads to a background load that is high compared to anthropogenic loads by agriculture, waste water discharge and other sources. The Flevoland Polders that were established in the 1960s, are known to be such an example.

This study investigated the water quality and surface water load with respect to ammonium for the Flevoland Polders for which large datasets on groundwater quality and surface water quality are available. We aim to characterise : 1. the variation of ammonium concentration in surface water, seasonally and between dry and wet years, 2. the spatial variation of groundwater ammonium concentration for different time intervals, and 3. the contribution of ammonium from groundwater to the surface water system compared to other sources such as waste water treatment plants, drain water from agricultural land, and leaching from nature areas.

The typical concentration ranges for ammonium are as follows: 1. about 0 – 8 mg NH4/L for ditches and canals, 2. from 0 to 60 mg/L or even higher for groundwater, and 3. approximately 0 – 8 mg/L for drain water in agricultural areas. This illustrates the major role of groundwater exfiltration in the ammonium load of surface water taking into account groundwater exfiltration rates compared to recharge by net precipitation. More detailed data analysis indicates seasonal variations in surface water ammonium concentrations, with higher levels in winter, likely due to reduced microbial activity, and lower levels in summer, although occasional summer peaks were observed. No significant patterns were found between wet and dry years, possibly due to the lack of extreme wet or dry conditions during the study period. Further, the water analyses show that groundwater ammonium concentrations were relatively stable over time, except for data prior to 1980. Mass balance calculations indicate that groundwater seepage is the major source of ammonium  followed by drain water from agricultural land. Waste water treatment plants and nature areas contributed the least.

Overall, this study highlights the significant role of groundwater in contributing to ammonium loads in surface water. It also shows that background load should be taken into account when establishing water quality standards for surface water.

 

How to cite: Griffioen, J. and Zhang, H.: The importance of exfiltrating nutrient-rich groundwater to the ammonium load of surface water in the Flevoland Polders, the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3261, 2025.

Changing weather patterns and extreme hydrological events, i.e. heavy rainfall and prolonged droughts, have resulted in further degradation of water quality within the agricultural landscapes by exacerbating nutrient transfer processes to surface water bodies. More frequently occurring extreme weather events require development of robust adaptation/mitigation strategies, which further requires an improved understanding of both the timing and conditions of the intensified hydro-meteorological drivers.

In order to evaluate the impact of extreme events on nutrient losses, an empirical modelling approach was taken in six intensively-monitored hydrologically-diverse agricultural catchments (ca 3-30 km2) across Ireland. The objective was to link the occurrence of pulses of N and P, driven by hydrology, with sub-hourly water quality monitoring and weather data over a 14-year period. Then using the downscaled future climate change scenarios for moderate (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) emission pathways, the occurrence probability and timing of such triggering events were investigated for three different time periods until end of the century.

The investigation of high-temporal resolution data confirmed capturing all subtle changes in the nutrient concentrations and extreme weather events while the empirical modelling of associated nutrient losses events due to extreme hydrological events revealed various criteria contributing to nutrient-losses. These criteria were in terms of air temperature and effective rainfall and explained more than 50% of any nutrient loss events across all the catchments at different temporal scales. Temporal aspects of data analysis showed that certain months would require specific attention in terms of adaptation, management, and re-evaluating nutrients’ pathways.

 Comparison between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 across three time periods of near future (2010-2039), mid-future (2040-2069), and far-future (2070-2100), suggested that the upward trends in number of events continue to increase stepwise in each time period whereas the percentage increase of nutrient-concentrations’ increasing events would almost double in RCP8.5. There would be over 60% and 40%  increase in the number of P-loss and N-loss triggering events, respectively, from near-future to far-future considering the sum of different empirically-driven criteria. Meanwhile, the catchment characteristics played a major role in defining the response of each landscapes to various drivers. Such catchment-specific response was explained by hydrological connectivity, soil chemistry and texture, drainage status, and agricultural practices.

Prolonged drought and warm periods and increased hydrological connectivity would result in increasing number of nutrient losses events as we move toward end of the century. The detected differences in catchments’ characteristics and in the frequency of triggering events across climate scenarios were indicative of consequence for future mitigation strategies and policy decisions which have to be climate smart, resilient, catchment-specific, and tailored to different environments

This research has been conducted as part of the WaterFutures project (Irish-EPA-funded).

How to cite: Ezzati, G. and Mellander, P.: An empirical modelling approach to investigate nutrient losses in view of more frequent extreme hydrological events using future climate-scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3515, 2025.

Despite long-term regulatory controls on fertiliser management that effectively close and open spreading periods, there are still ongoing stream water quality issues in agricultural catchments. Adjustments to these regulations largely relate to application rate and set-back distances from watercourses at the start of the open period to avoid sudden water quality impacts. Within this regulatory framework and using long-term datasets the aim of this study was to investigate the relative importance of weather, land use and policy effects on stream water quality during the first weeks of the open spreading period. Fortnightly stream water samples were collected over 2009-2023 in twenty-four agricultural sub-catchments of major Northern Ireland rivers. Random Forest Regression models were developed to predict baseline stream water total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total oxidised nitrogen (TON) concentrations. Results showed that weather and land use were the primary drivers of changes in phosphorus concentrations while land use was the primary driver of changes in TON concentrations. Furthermore, weather was a more important driver of changes in nutrient concentrations in the more intensively farmed sub-catchments. In the less intensive sub-catchments, land use was at least 30% (for TP) to 85% (for TON) more important than the weather and policy predictors for explaining these changes. The study highlights the need to reduce the nutrient source pressure as a more effective step to improve water quality compared to small adjustments to fertiliser spreading protocols. It further supports the need to ensure slurry is spread when weather conditions are appropriate and for policy reviews to account for changes in weather pressures.

How to cite: Fresne, M., Jordan, P., and Cassidy, R.: Relative importance of weather, land use and slurry spreading regulations for stream water quality in agricultural catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3531, 2025.

EGU25-4314 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Quantifying and targeting the multiple benefits of nature based solutions at the catchment scale 

Jenny Broomby, Barry Hankin, Changgui Wang, Hannah Champion, Steve Maslen, and Chris Gerrard

Water quality modelling at the operational management catchment scale suffers from large epistemic uncertainties with reduced monitoring and uncertain processes that are rapidly changing with the climate. Assessing the effectiveness of many distributed nature-based solutions (NbS) that change hydrological and geochemical processes in the landscape to help mitigate diffuse nutrient pollution can be even more beset by uncertainties and lead instead to a focus on asset-only improvements, and a corresponding loss of multiple benefits associated with NbS.

Rather than taking a complex integrated catchment modelling approach, we focus here on using regulatory, data-based model, SIMCAT, to first understand the least change in diffuse load NbS must deliver to improve WFD status. This shift can be monetised and combined with other co-benefits of NbS including water resource, habitat and carbon estimated here from additional models. This helps identify waterbodies where the least effort on behalf of NbS is required to improve the status, and these areas can be refined by combining with waterbodies with the greatest potential for NbS. This potential has been mapped in the UK delineating areas for potential wetland restoration, woodland planting, ponds and floodplain restoration. These have been combined and the intersected area of these for each of the WFD waterbodies can then help prioritise further, and assessed against water company plans for future asset-improvements. The process results in a multi criteria analysis where we explore trade-offs between different benefits and mixed solutions that include pipeline future asset improvements.

Having collaboratively agreed the weightings in the MCA and agreed the target WFD waterbody catchments where NbS will be most effective, we introduce an additional step of using a novel 10m gridded risk map from the Fieldmouse model, which identifies pixels in the landscape with greatest load and connectivity to the classification point.  This is used as a heat map to refine which part of the mapped NbS elements would make the greatest difference and where for instance grant allocation can be focussed. The modelling tool can also quantify the reduction in load, although this can still be quite uncertain, the measures are located where they are likely to make the most difference.

How to cite: Broomby, J., Hankin, B., Wang, C., Champion, H., Maslen, S., and Gerrard, C.: Quantifying and targeting the multiple benefits of nature based solutions at the catchment scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4314, 2025.

The South China region is characterized by a monsoon climate with concurrent rainfall and high temperatures, featuring abundant precipitation, dense water networks, and numerous lakes. With the development of agriculture and industry, water pollution has become increasingly severe. Dissolved oxygen (DO), as a crucial indicator for water quality assessment, effectively reflects changes in water quality. In recent years, water quality in aquaculture ponds, rivers, and lakes has gradually improved due to advances in sewage treatment technology and strengthened water quality management. Based on Landsat 8/9 OLI satellite imagery, this study applied Rayleigh reflection atmospheric correction, combined with EMD decomposition and water body indices, to construct a random forest retrieval model for dissolved oxygen (R²=0.90). The study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of DO concentrations in three typical water bodies across South China from 2013 to 2024. Results showed that: (1) DO concentrations in all three water body types exhibited an increasing trend from 2013 to 2024, with increases of 0.2%, 0.8%, and 2.4% in rivers, aquaculture ponds, and lakes, respectively; (2) In terms of average DO concentration, lakes maintained the highest levels (7.93 mg/L), followed by rivers (7.75 mg/L), while aquaculture ponds showed the lowest levels (7.41 mg/L); (3) Spatially, DO concentrations in rivers decreased gradually from upstream to estuaries, lake centers showed higher concentrations than shoreline areas, and aquaculture ponds demonstrated higher levels in mountainous and upstream river regions compared to lower-latitude coastal areas; (4) Seasonal patterns revealed that DO concentrations in rivers and lakes reached their minimum in summer and maximum in winter, while aquaculture ponds showed an opposite trend.

How to cite: Mao, K. and Yang, X.: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Dissolved Oxygen in Typical Water Bodies of South China Based on Landsat Imagery (2013-2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4512, 2025.

EGU25-4700 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Nutrient fluxes and speciation shaped by source-hydrology coupling in the Pearl River Basin 

Ying Zhang and Jianping Gan

Nutrient fluxes exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity, driven by the dynamic coupling of hydrological processes and biogeochemical cycles. To elucidate the mechanisms controlling nutrient species, we conducted a process-based investigation of the Pearl River Basin using simulations from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Our findings reveal that surface nitrate and soluble phosphorus are primarily transported by surface flow, whereas particulate inorganic phosphorus is predominantly regulated by sediment transport. These transport mediators, coupled with soil nutrient pools and fertilizer use, govern the fluxes of nutrient species. Fertilizer use, despite being less abundant than soil pools, exerts a stronger influence due to its closer coupling with transport mediators. In contrast, lateral nitrate flux is largely controlled by soil nitrate pools, with smaller contributions from the coupling between lateral flow and fertilizer use. Organic nutrient species, on the other hand, are primarily regulated by sediment transport in conjunction with plant residues and show minimal dependence on fertilizer inputs. Furthermore, the dominant influence of transport mediators, such as flow and sediment, results in a pronounced wet-season dominance in annual nutrient loads across all nutrient species. Land surface processes further shape the spatial patterns of nutrient fluxes. Surface and lateral flows are most active in regions with high precipitation, with surface flow dominating in urban and agricultural areas, while lateral flow is more prominent in clay-rich forests. Sediment yield is highest in clay-rich urban and agricultural landscapes. Soil nitrate pools and plant residues are abundant in forested regions, whereas inorganic phosphorus pools are elevated in pasturelands. Overall, this study provides critical insights into nutrient dynamics within heterogeneous watersheds, highlighting the interplay between transport processes and nutrient sources across diverse terrestrial landscapes.

How to cite: Zhang, Y. and Gan, J.: Nutrient fluxes and speciation shaped by source-hydrology coupling in the Pearl River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4700, 2025.

Predicting the concentration and identifying the source of phosphorus in aquatic systems are essential for ecosystem health. This study tackled two primary challenges: the intricate biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus, which hinders the accuracy of process-based models, and the time-intensive, resource-demanding nature of experimental and model-based phosphorus tracing methods. We adopted a novel attention physics-guided spatiotemporal graph convolutional neural network, which employs convective diffusion equations to constrain deep learning training for more accurate spatiotemporal multi-node total phosphorus (TP) predictions, and is coupled with an attention-based interpretability method to trace pollution sources. In application to the Taihu Lake Basin (China), this model enhanced TP concentration prediction accuracy by 7.1%–12.3% compared with baseline models. It also effectively identified and quantified the primary pollution source in Gehu Lake under varying seasonal and hydraulic engineering conditions. Examination of the microscale TP migration process revealed an equilibrium mode between TP concentration dilution and sediment disturbance–release under specific river velocity, with an equilibrium velocity of 0.19 m/s. This study underscores the critical role of hydrodynamics, shaped by hydraulic engineering and hydrological variability, in influencing pollutant migration and transformation within tidal river networks, thereby offering new insights into phosphorus prediction and source tracing in complex habitats.

How to cite: Yao, J. and Ruan, X.: Explainable deep learning for dual goals: Predicting total phosphorus concentrations and identifying pollution sources in the Taihu Lake Basin, a tidal river network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4892, 2025.

EGU25-5653 | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

To what extent does nitrogen in wastewater effluent contribute to stream water quality deterioration in Germany? 

Tam Nguyen, Andreas Musolff, Pia Ebeling, Fanny Sarrazin, Jan Fleckenstein, and Rohini Kumar

Over the past seven decades, Germany has undergone transformative changes in wastewater management, largely driven by technological advancements, policy interventions, and the introduction of European Union (EU) directives targeting wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Simultaneously, the country has experienced profound societal transformations, notably the political and economic divergence between East and West Germany and shifts in population density, which further influenced WWTP infrastructure and management practices. This study focuses on nitrogen in effluent from WWTPs, which directly discharge into rivers, often having an immediate and localized impact. Understanding the spatial and temporal evolution of nitrogen in wastewater effluent contribution to stream water quality deterioration is essential for designing sustainable water management strategies. To this end, we combined data-driven analysis and modeling approaches, making use of recently published datasets on diffuse nitrogen sources (Batool et al., 2022), nitrogen point sources (Sarrazin et al., 2024), and a state-of-the-art water quality model (Nguyen et al., 2022). We applied the model across various German catchments with diverse agriculture and wastewater amount and treatment development from 1950 to 2020. Our results reveal a noticeable decrease in N effluents from WWTPs, leading to a decline in N contribution to instream nitrogen in the last decades. However, this declining pattern and trend varied across West and East Germany. Our study enables the identification of hot spots, helping spatially targeted management.

 

References

Batool et al., (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01693-9

Nguyen et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100278

Sarrazin, et al. (2024). https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-4673-2024, 2024

How to cite: Nguyen, T., Musolff, A., Ebeling, P., Sarrazin, F., Fleckenstein, J., and Kumar, R.: To what extent does nitrogen in wastewater effluent contribute to stream water quality deterioration in Germany?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5653, 2025.

EGU25-5948 | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Water quality in watercourses with long-term changes in the hydrological regime 

Libuše Barešová, Vít Kodeš, and Hedvika Roztočilová

The PERUN project (SS02030040) is evaluating water quality data in selected watercourses with major changes in long-term hydrological characteristics. For the purpose of this paper, time series of basic physicochemical parameters will be evaluated, which at some monitoring sites start as early as the 1960s. The evolution of concentrations, their relationship to stream flows, and the objectives of good ecological status given by the Water Framework Directive will be assessed. Problem areas with significant discharges of wastewater and the occurrence of dry periods will be characterised, and the statistical significance of trends in concentrations of physico-chemical parameters will be tested at selected sites with long time series. The typical behaviour of these chemical substances will be described.

How to cite: Barešová, L., Kodeš, V., and Roztočilová, H.: Water quality in watercourses with long-term changes in the hydrological regime, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5948, 2025.

EGU25-7804 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Assessing Eutrophication Drivers and Water Quality Degradation in Gorgan Bay: A Catchment-Scale Nutrient Export Analysis 

Mahdi kazemi, Mohammad Hossaini Baheri, Mohammad Mirzajani, Mina Fakhr, and Massoud Tajrishy

Gorgan Bay, situated in the southeastern Caspian Sea, is an ecologically significant wetland and a critical habitat for wildlife, migratory birds, and fisheries. However, the bay's ecological and economic importance is increasingly threatened by eutrophication, driven by substantial nutrient inflows, particularly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), originating from its upstream catchment. This study aims to quantify nutrient loads, identify their sources, and evaluate their impacts on water quality using land-use analysis, export coefficient modeling (ECM), and the Carlson Trophic State Index (CTSI). Over the past two decades, nutrient loads have risen steadily, with phosphorus and nitrogen inputs each increasing by approximately 3.6% due to agricultural intensification, urbanization, and untreated wastewater discharge. Concurrently, the annual discharge of freshwater into Gorgan Bay has shown a significant declining trend, despite minimal changes in monthly flows. The Qarasu River, contributing approximately 50% of the total inflow, and the Baghou River, accounting for 14%, play crucial roles in the bay’s hydrological balance. The declining water inflows, coupled with high evaporation rates and no significant replenishment since 2015, have led to a persistent decrease in the bay’s water storage. Notably, in 2017, the water loss exceeded 2 million cubic meters. These changes have resulted in reduced water quantity, which directly affects water quality and intensifies eutrophication in the bay. Land-use changes have further exacerbated nutrient export. Analysis indicates a 10% increase in agricultural land, often linked to intensive fertilizer use, and a 7% reduction in forested areas, which has diminished the natural capacity for nutrient filtration. The CTSI analysis reveals that while some areas of Gorgan Bay are mesotrophic, most central and eastern regions are classified as eutrophic, reflecting significant seasonal and spatial variations in water quality, algal productivity, and light penetration. These changes have resulted in severe ecological consequences, including algal blooms, reduced water clarity, and hypoxic conditions, which pose substantial threats to aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Furthermore, the socio-economic ramifications for fisheries and local communities reliant on the bay's resources are profound. To address these challenges, this study recommends adopting integrated management strategies. Key measures include controlling point-source phosphorus pollution through advanced wastewater treatment, promoting sustainable agricultural practices to optimize nitrogen and phosphorus use, and restoring riparian vegetation to enhance natural nutrient buffering. Additionally, increasing environmental awareness and fostering stakeholder engagement at the catchment scale are crucial for achieving long-term conservation goals. Implementing these strategies can help mitigate eutrophication impacts, improve water quality, and preserve the ecological and economic significance of Gorgan Bay for future generations.

How to cite: kazemi, M., Hossaini Baheri, M., Mirzajani, M., Fakhr, M., and Tajrishy, M.: Assessing Eutrophication Drivers and Water Quality Degradation in Gorgan Bay: A Catchment-Scale Nutrient Export Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7804, 2025.

EGU25-8238 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Nutrient concentration modelling in the Baltic countries using spatial machine learning 

Marta Jemeljanova, Holger Virro, Marie Annusver, Alexander Kmoch, and Evelyn Uuemaa

The water quality of surface streams is impacted by various environmental (soil texture, precipitation, and local topography) and anthropogenic (fertilizer and manure deposition) factors of the upstream catchment. Knowledge of relationships between the water quality and the catchment-wide characteristics is of high importance for outlining critical areas for interventions, e.g., nature-based solutions for nutrient capture. 

Various modelling techniques have been implemented to gain insights into the catchment characteristics and the corresponding nutrient concentrations.  The use of machine learning methods for this purpose has increased due to the relaxed requirements of the input data as well as increasingly ubiquitous spatial environmental datasets. However, machine learning models are not spatially-aware by default. Recently, various methods have been proposed to account for spatial dependency across multiple modelling stages. 

We employ the Random Forest supervised machine learning algorithm to model nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) concentrations on a point scale. We use national level monitoring data of the Baltic countries between the years 2017-2023 with varying number of observations per site, averaged over the study years. Environmental characteristics (topography, land use, climate, soil properties) describing the corresponding upstream catchment area are used as the explanatory features. As the catchments extend beyond the borders of the Baltics, we use various global datasets for feature creation (e.g., ERA5-Land, SoilGrids). In addition, we apply spatial machine learning methods and assess their applicability for catchment-based modelling. Lastly, we employ explainable AI methods, namely SHapley Additive exPlanations and Partial dependency plots, to validate if our model’s revealed relationships correspond to the domain knowledge.  

How to cite: Jemeljanova, M., Virro, H., Annusver, M., Kmoch, A., and Uuemaa, E.: Nutrient concentration modelling in the Baltic countries using spatial machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8238, 2025.

EGU25-8457 | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Spatiotemporal variations in stream chemistry and suspended sediment levels  

Ágota Horel, Csilla Farkas, Andor Bódi, Imre Zagyva, and Tibor Zsigmond

The present study aimed to analyze to what extent nearby agricultural and semi-natural land use types might affect stream turbidity and chemistry over time. A four-year-long (2021-2024) data on water turbidity and chemistry were measured at different points of the small stream, while soil water content (SWC), and soil temperature were measured at a nearby cropland site with crop rotation.

We analyzed water samples collected daily from the same collection point, and bi-weekly to monthly along the stream from the spring to the outlet (7 to 10 measurement points), whenever water flow was present. We measured stream water turbidity (FNU), total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (as NO3+NO2 and NH4; TDIN) content, water pH, and specific conductance (SPS) using a ProDSS YSI Instrument. Total nitrogen (Ntot) and total phosphorus (Ptot) concentrations were measured using a Nanocolor VIS-II spectrophotometer (Macherey-Nagel) in 2024. Meteorological data was collected from the catchment outlet, while several rain gauges (ECRN-100, Decagon Devices) were also placed at different parts of the small catchment. SWC measurements were collected using 5TM sensors (Decagon Devices) at 10-minute intervals at 15 cm depth.

During the first three years, our results showed a weak correlation between FNU and precipitation (r=0.16, p=0.21), due to high FNU values from low water levels. This mainly occurred during drought conditions. Weak negative connections were observed between SPS and FNU values (r=-0.17, p=0.18), showing that high precipitation lowers water conductivities. Our results showed that the SPC values were inversely proportional to the FNU values.

Based on the 2024 data (n=266) we noted that Ptot levels varied among sites; however, not significantly (p>0.05). Ntot contents were the highest at the site with fresh spring water entering the stream and the lowest at the outlet (p>0.05). We found the strongest correlation to water FNU with orthophosphate (r=0.92; p=0.0003), while a strong correlation between stream discharge and orthophosphate (r=0.65; p=0.005) or total phosphorus concentrations (r=0.63; p=0.006) were also noted. Also, precedent soil moisture content weakly but significantly affected water stream turbidity (r=0.25; p=0.007).

We ran a cluster analysis to determine different levels of rainfall amounts causing significant changes in turbidity values.  Three main clusters were distinguished based on the daily sample data, which divided our dataset into daily precipitation amounts of i) precipitation sums below 4.8 mm, ii) averaging 6.3 mm, and iii) averaging 23.7 mm. The three clusters, especially the extreme events are most significantly separated along precipitation and FNU values.

Acknowledgments: This material is based upon work supported by the Hungarian National Research Fund (OTKA/NKFI) project OTKA FK-131792. The research presented in the article was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 862756 (OPTAIN). The research was funded by the Sustainable Development and Technologies National Programme of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (FFT NP FTA).

How to cite: Horel, Á., Farkas, C., Bódi, A., Zagyva, I., and Zsigmond, T.: Spatiotemporal variations in stream chemistry and suspended sediment levels , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8457, 2025.

EGU25-9173 | Orals | HS2.3.3

The Role of Catchment Characteristics in Phosphate Emissions to Downstream Waterbodies 

Fiachra O'Loughlin, Salman Khan, and Eva Mockler

Phosphate (PO₄) is often the limiting nutrient driving eutrophication and algal blooms in freshwater ecosystems. Accurate estimation of PO₄ concentrations is crucial for assessing the impacts of agriculture and urban emissions on water bodies and evaluating the effectiveness of catchment mitigation measures. However, measuring PO₄, especially at low concentrations, is technically complex, and modelling its dynamics is challenging due to the interplay between emissions, absorption, and transport processes in the natural environment. This study develops a Random Forest model to predict PO₄ concentrations in Irish water bodies, using catchment descriptors related to climate, land use, geology, topography, and anthropogenic activities. The model achieves an R² of 0.35 and an RMSE of 0.03 mg/L on an independent validation dataset, demonstrating moderate predictive accuracy. The developed model is applied to current and future climate and land use change scenarios to evaluate the influence of catchment-level mitigation measures. The findings highlights the significant roles of soil texture and permeability in influencing downstream PO₄ concentrations. Moreover, descriptors which are associated with low-intensity land use, such as peatlands and forests, were identified as having a positive effect in reducing PO₄ concentrations in water bodies. This underscoring the importance of sustainable land management practices in maintaining healthier ecosystems.

How to cite: O'Loughlin, F., Khan, S., and Mockler, E.: The Role of Catchment Characteristics in Phosphate Emissions to Downstream Waterbodies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9173, 2025.

Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in river ecosystems—particularly in River Lee, London—is crucial to maintaining aquatic life and water quality. Using daily data, this work presents machine learning models that can forecast DO levels over a variety of periods, from short (7 days) to long (365 days). We enhanced the capacity of long-term DO forecasting by utilizing models such as Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), Informer, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). With an RMSE of 0.04 and an R2 of 0.09 at the 365-day horizon, the Informer model performs well in managing long-term dependencies. On the other hand, although the TFT model consistently performs well throughout a range of time periods, the LSTM and GRU models' accuracy decreases for forecasts longer than 90 days. Furthermore, DO levels are greatly influenced by environmental factors such as pH, chlorophyll, turbidity, temperature, conductivity, and river velocity. Environmental organisations can develop proactive water management plans and prevent problems like river hypoxia thanks to the enhanced performance of models like the Informer and TFT. These results highlight how cutting-edge machine learning methods can help ensure the long-term viability of river ecosystems.

 

Keywords: River streamflow; LSTM; GRU; TFT; Informer; Water Quality

How to cite: Ahmed, A. and Ali, A.: Long-Term Forecasting of Dissolved Oxygen in Rivers Using Machine Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9554, 2025.

EGU25-10930 | Orals | HS2.3.3

AI prediction of ammonium levels in rivers using machine learning 

Ali Ali and Ashraf Ahmed

A developed machine learning framework for predicting ammonium (NH₄⁺) levels in River Lee, London, is presented in this paper. We use state-of-the-art algorithms such as the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) on a large dataset that includes temperature, turbidity, chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, and pH. By clarifying the intricate relationships between environmental variables and ammonium levels, these models greatly improve forecast accuracy. Using the TFT model for multi-horizon forecasting is one of our research's unique features. High accuracy and interpretability in hydrological predictions are made possible by this model's skilful integration of convolutional elements with an attention mechanism. It solves a crucial problem in environmental modelling by skilfully managing short-term variations while being resilient over longer periods of time. Adaptability and resilience are combined in our dual-scale method, which works well for both short- and long-term environmental projections. In particular, XGBoost performs exceptionally well in monthly forecasts up to 12 months with a noticeably low RMSE, while the RF model exhibits exceptional long-term forecasting capabilities, attaining an R2 of 0.97 and an RMSE of 0.18 over 1095 days. TFT performs best in short-term projections, but data granularity limits its ability to perform well in longer-term situations. These revelations highlight how urgently proactive water management techniques are needed to reduce hazards like hypoxia and possible ecological effects. In the end, our research offers resource managers vital assistance in tackling issues pertaining to ammonium toxicity and ecological health.

How to cite: Ali, A. and Ahmed, A.: AI prediction of ammonium levels in rivers using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10930, 2025.

EGU25-12329 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Modeling the effects of land use on dissolved organic carbon in boreal catchments using the HYPE model 

Renkui Guo, Andrea Popp, Martin Berggren, Junzhi Liu, Jiaojiao Liu, and Zheng Duan

Terrestrial carbon is a crucial source of streamflow dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in catchments. Within river catchments, land use types strongly affect the soil physical and chemical properties, shaping DOC formation, storage, and transport processes. Understanding the relationship between land use types and DOC dynamics is essential for predicting carbon fluxes and mitigating the adverse effects of land use changes on aquatic environments. This study aims to improve the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model to quantify DOC contributions from different land use. The current HYPE model does not distinct land use type in some DOC processes (e.g., runoff delay.) Our work is to improve the DOC module in HYPE to investigate the land use effects on DOC-related processes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems. The DOC processes in each land use type will be characterized by a unique parameter set, which will account for variations in soil organic carbon content, microbial activity, and hydrological transport processes. This approach enables the HYPE model to capture the unique DOC dynamics associated with different land use types. The improved model will be applied and evaluated in the boreal Krycklan catchment in northern Sweden, a region dominated by forests but also including other land use types, such as wetlands and agricultural lands. We aim to answer the research question: How do different land use types influence DOC concentrations in streamflow within boreal catchments? Characterizing the spatiotemporal patterns of DOC contributions from each land use type will provide new insights into the interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic carbon cycling. Additionally, scenarios modeling will allow us to more reliably predict how future changes in land use may affect DOC concentrations and water quality in boreal catchments. Insights derived from this study will provide decision support for sustainable land and water resources management to mitigate the adverse effects of land use changes on aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Guo, R., Popp, A., Berggren, M., Liu, J., Liu, J., and Duan, Z.: Modeling the effects of land use on dissolved organic carbon in boreal catchments using the HYPE model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12329, 2025.

EGU25-14155 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

A raster-based estimation of watershed phosphorus load and its impacts on surrounding rivers based on process-based modeling 

Qi Li, Jiacong Huang, Jing Zhang, and Junfeng Gao

Quantifying phosphorus (P) loads from watersheds at a fine scale is crucial for studying P sources in lake or river ecosystems; however, it is particularly challenging for mountain–lowland mixed watersheds. To address this challenge, we proposed a framework to estimate the P load at the grid scale and assessed its risk to surrounding rivers in a typical mountain–lowland mixed watershed (Huxi Region in Lake Taihu Basin, China). The framework coupled three models: the Phosphorus Dynamic model for lowland Polder systems (PDP), the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the Export Coefficient Model (ECM). The coupled model performed satisfactory for both hydrological and water quality variables (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.5). Our modelling practice revealed that polder, non-polder, and mountainous areas had P loads of 211.4, 437.2, and 149.9 t yr-1, respectively. P load intensity in lowlands and mountains was 1.75 and 0.60 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. A higher P load intensity (> 3 kg ha-1 yr-1) was mainly observed in the non-polder area. In lowland areas, irrigated cropland, aquaculture ponds and impervious surfaces contributed 36.7, 24.8, and 25.8% of the P load, respectively. In mountainous areas, irrigated croplands, aquaculture ponds, and impervious surfaces contributed 28.6, 27.0, and 16.4% of the P load, respectively. Rivers with relatively high P load risks were mainly observed around big cities during rice season, owing to a large contribution of P loads from the non-point source pollution of urban and agricultural activities. This study demonstrated a raster-based estimation of watershed P loads and their impacts on surrounding rivers using coupled process-based models. It would be useful to identify the hotspots and hot moments of P loads at the grid scale.

How to cite: Li, Q., Huang, J., Zhang, J., and Gao, J.: A raster-based estimation of watershed phosphorus load and its impacts on surrounding rivers based on process-based modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14155, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14155, 2025.

EGU25-14220 | Orals | HS2.3.3

A Damköhler-based catchment nitrate transport-processing integration and its responses to droughts 

Xiaoqiang Yang, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Junliang Jin, Qiongfang Li, Dietrich Borchardt, and Chris Soulsby

Catchment-scale nitrate dynamics involve complex interactions coupling hydrological transport and biogeochemical transformations, imposing challenges for source control of diffuse pollution. Here, we propose a novel spatio-temporal framework for catchment-scale quantification of Damköhler number (Da) based on the ecohydrological modelling platform EcH2O-iso and a catchment nitrate module. We examined Da variability of the dominant process of denitrification and N removal in the intensively instrumented, heterogeneous Selke catchment (456 km2, central Germany). Results showed that warm-season N losses from denitrification was of catchment-wide significance (Da >1), while its high spatial variations were co-determined by varying exposure times (e.g., hydrologically isolated areas with long residence times and old water) and removal efficiencies (e.g., hotspots of channel-connected lowland areas). Moreover, Da demonstrated a systematic shift to transport-dominance during the wet-spring season (from >1 to <1). Under the prolonged 2018-2019 droughts, denitrification removal generally reduced, resulting in further N accumulation in agricultural soils. Besides, the hydrologically disconnected lowland areas (with high water ages) exhibited extra risks of groundwater contamination. Importantly, the channel-connected lowlands exhibited high removal efficiencies, as well as high resilience to the disturbances like the droughts. These insights into integrated catchment functioning highlighted important management implications for nature-based, spatially targeted mitigation measures. 

How to cite: Yang, X., Tetzlaff, D., Jin, J., Li, Q., Borchardt, D., and Soulsby, C.: A Damköhler-based catchment nitrate transport-processing integration and its responses to droughts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14220, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14220, 2025.

EGU25-16080 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Methodological framework for the analysis of current and future nutrient and pollutant fluxes in the lowlands of Northeast Italy 

Corrado A.S. Camera, Daniele Pedretti, Nico Dalla Libera, Sara Pasini, Ylenia Gelmini, and Andrea Braidot

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC is an important milestone for water management, aiming to achieve good chemical and ecological status for European water bodies. Achieving these goals requires a comprehensive understanding of nutrients and pollutants transfer through surface waters, especially in areas impacted by human activities. This study aims to develop a methodological framework for setting up numerical models at the Northeast Italian River district scale to analyze nutrients and pollutants transfer from agriculture, industrial production, and wastewater treatment. The research enhances knowledge on the distribution of priority substances, supporting effective water management strategies aligned with WFD objectives.

The study area covers about 12,000 km² across 11 river basins in Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia. Separate models were developed for each basin using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The models focused on simulating river discharge, calibrated against observed data using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient, and estimating nutrient and phytochemical loads discharged to the sea, verified with literature and limited monitored data. Given the highly modified river network, simplifications were introduced. Irrigation diversions and channels were modeled as point sources, along with industrial and wastewater treatment discharges. To account for agricultural practices, a detailed land cover layer was created by integrating Corine Land Cover 2018 and EUCROP 2018 datasets. Fertilizer and phytochemical use were defined through specific scheduling for all major crops, covering up to 95% of the study area. Current climate conditions were simulated using observed data from 2001 to 2020. Future scenarios for Global Warming Levels of 2°C and 3°C were modeled using downscaled data from Regional Climate Models.

Results show a good reproduction of discharge rates across river basins, with monthly NSE of 0.5 or higher values. NSE values below 0.5 were observed in the Venice Lagoon basin, the most anthropized area, where tidal effects were not captured by SWAT. Nutrient loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus discharged to the sea aligned with previous studies, highlighting key point and area sources within each basin. Under future climate scenarios, both annual flow and nutrient discharges are expected to slightly increase. The study results were used by the Northeast Italian River District Authority to develop recommendations for the improvement of surface water monitoring and management strategies, so to contribute to an increasingly effective implementation of the WFD goals.

How to cite: Camera, C. A. S., Pedretti, D., Dalla Libera, N., Pasini, S., Gelmini, Y., and Braidot, A.: Methodological framework for the analysis of current and future nutrient and pollutant fluxes in the lowlands of Northeast Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16080, 2025.

EGU25-16618 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Environmental drivers of algal bloom timing and magnitude estimated from Sentinel-2 imagery 

Paula Torre Zaffaroni, Kerstin Stelzer, Jorrit Scholze, Vanessa Bremerich, Carole Lebreton, and Tobias Goldhammer

Freshwater ecosystems can experience shifts in aquatic primary production that are driven by disturbances in temperature, river discharge, and nutrient cycle dynamics – with interacting and cumulative effects that are poorly understood, but have strong implications for ecosystem health. These shifts can reduce biodiversity, alter food web structures, degrade water quality, and negatively impact aquatic communities. Changes in the timing of phytoplankton growth cycles are often associated with different algae groups dominating the assemblage. While cyanobacterial blooms are of primary concern due to their toxicity and tight association with high summer temperatures and nutrient loads, other harmful and potentially toxic algae may proliferate as well. In the summer of 2022, the Oder River experienced a harmful algal bloom caused by the brackish-water haptophyte Prymnesium parvum. This unprecedented event culminated in an environmental disaster in one of Europe's last rivers with a free-flowing lower course and several regions of extraordinary ecological importance. Here, we integrate long-term records of hydrometeorological variables with the estimations of chlorophyll content derived from the Copernicus satellite Sentinel-2 along the full extent of the Oder River and its most relevant tributaries to (1) characterize the timing (i.e., phenology of each growth cycle) and magnitude (i.e., peak chlorophyll-a activity) of the phytoplankton dynamics over the last 10 years; (2) evaluate the role of temperature and discharge anomalies, and of increased saline inputs in driving these blooms; and (3) compare these assemblages with those observed in other European and global river systems. Our findings reveal distinct patterns of spring and summer blooms alternating between years in magnitude as well as in onset timing. When incorporating cumulative anomalies of temperature and discharge the sensitivity of the phytoplankton community dynamics to the interplay of environmental drivers becomes clearer. We discuss the implications of these patterns in a context of rapid global change. 

How to cite: Torre Zaffaroni, P., Stelzer, K., Scholze, J., Bremerich, V., Lebreton, C., and Goldhammer, T.: Environmental drivers of algal bloom timing and magnitude estimated from Sentinel-2 imagery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16618, 2025.

EGU25-16790 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Using the farmgate phosphorus balance to meet river and lake water quality targets  

Phil Jordan, Yvonne McElarney, and Rachel Cassidy

Phosphorus (P) remaining in the farming system after accounting for all P inputs (chemical fertilisers, imported slurry/manure, concentrate feed) and offtakes (agricultural products, exported slurry/manure) can be summarised as the farmgate P balance (FPB). If FPB is in surplus, P can be immediately vulnerable to runoff and also to become part of a legacy soil P store that can have longer term diffuse pollution consequences. The FPB scaled to Northern Ireland was investigated against national water quality datasets from one hundred and one rivers over 18-years. National FPBs ranged from 8.7 – 15.1 kg P/ha/yr over that period. Ninety-three of the river sites were used for Water Framework Directive (WFD) reporting of baseline soluble reactive P (SRP) concentrations. Total P (TP) data from eight major rivers were combined with river discharge for large catchment area (4,836 km2) estimates of TP load to the 304 km2 Lough Neagh lake basin where lake TP is a WFD reporting requirement. River TP loads were normalised to annual flow-weighted mean concentrations (FWMC). Based on conceptual models of ‘catchment memory’ and rivers as ‘jerky conveyor belts’ of material movement, the study found a linear 1-year lag between annual FPB and mean annual baseline SRP concentration in the ninety-three river sites, and a 5-year lag between FPB and TP FWMC in the eight major rivers. The differences were explained by soluble and particulate P partitioning and fate between source and receptors. The linear model suggested that river SRP would need a stronger FPB to aim for the good/high SRP boundary (upper quartile 0.037 mg/L) to meet a river FWMC TP concentration (0.109 mg/L) that would approach the lake’s WFD TP moderate/good boundary (0.044 mg/L) in the absence of internal lake P loading. The analysis suggested that the FPB would need to be 5.5 kg/ha/yr, or half the current balance, to meet these targets in the absence of other non-FPB sources. Addressing these non-FPB sources of P pollution in the Lough Neagh catchment and Northern Ireland more generally (38% considered to be from urban and rural sewered populations), would either speed up and attain higher water quality targets, or relieve the burden to agriculture if a slightly higher FPB target was used.

How to cite: Jordan, P., McElarney, Y., and Cassidy, R.: Using the farmgate phosphorus balance to meet river and lake water quality targets , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16790, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16790, 2025.

EGU25-17299 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Advancing Nitrogen Source Identification with Compounds Emerging Concern Co-Tracers and Isotope Analysis in Natural Waters 

Bradley McGuire, Astrid Harjung, Ioannis Matiatos, Viviana Re, Mary Etuk, Frederic Huneau, and Yuliya Vystavna

The application of stable isotope techniques toward the identification and quantification of nitrogen pollution has been a topic of significant interest in recent decades. The overlap of isotopic signatures for animal manure, septic waste, soil derived nitrogen, and ammonium-based fertilizers can obscure the source of pollutants, which are desirable to identify. To overcome this overlap of signals, the utilization of co-tracers, such as chemical compounds, which can be attributed to specific source inputs, becomes advantageous. An approach, which has commonly been utilized to identify chemical compounds – compounds of emerging concern (CECs) in this context – is the utilization of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. Through QSAR models, CECs may be identified and grouped based on known physical and chemical properties to predict their behavior in different scenarios. To better delineate sources of nitrate pollution, a QSAR analysis was applied with the aim of identifying CECs, which act as conservative environmental tracers and are specifically linked to nitrate pollution sources. For this purpose, stable nitrate isotope data was coupled with CEC data collected from several case study sites in Austria, France, Greece, and Nigeria. Additionally, nitrate isotope data was introduced to a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR) to delineate potential pollution sources. The QSAR model results revealed the CECs with high potential, and were compared with those of the MixSIAR model in order to identify those compounds, which could be strong candidates as co-tracers in nitrate pollution studies. Further, the parameters of the QSAR model were extracted to identify compound specific parameters which may be indicators for other compounds with tracer potential in future studies. The goal of this work was to identify CECs or types of CECs as robust co-tracers for nitrate source determination in order to better understand N cycling in ecosystems and contribute towards the protection and sustainable management of water resources.

How to cite: McGuire, B., Harjung, A., Matiatos, I., Re, V., Etuk, M., Huneau, F., and Vystavna, Y.: Advancing Nitrogen Source Identification with Compounds Emerging Concern Co-Tracers and Isotope Analysis in Natural Waters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17299, 2025.

EGU25-17411 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Multi-scale Monitoring of Water Quality in a Phytoplankton Carrying, European River - a case study of the Moselle 

Björn Baschek, Tobias Brehm, Marco Herrmann, Daniel Koch, Franziska Klotz, Julia Kleinteich, Christopher Nicholls, and Thomas Hoffmann

River management, e.g. in the context of the European Water Framework Directive, requires a comprehensive monitoring of inland water bodies. Traditional water quality assessment methods using probes and laboratory analyses are time-consuming, expensive and insufficiently capture the large-scale dynamic nature of river systems. Remote sensing offers a promising additional data source, though limited river widths are challenging to resolve and constrain sensor selection and often necessitates integrating multiple data sources of variable resolution. In addition, using sensors with higher resolution enables the investigation of small-scale effects.

The MeskalMon-Project (Multi-scale monitoring in rivers using remote sensing and in-situ methods for the parameters chlorophyll and suspended matter) develops an innovative approach that combines in-situ measurements with remote sensing data from various platforms, including a hyperspectral sensor mounted to bridges, a spectrometer, a multispectral UAS-sensor and multispectral satellite imagery. The research focusses on the characterization of the spatial variability and spectral interactions of chlorophyll-a and turbidity through a comprehensive monitoring strategy.

Measurement campaigns on the river Moselle during 2022-2024 employed diverse sampling techniques, including longitudinal, lateral, and vertical measurements in the water column. By applying indices such as the Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index (NDCI), we have facilitated comparability between different spatial resolutions, data acquisition methods and platforms. Preliminary results show a promising agreement between satellite, camera, spectrometer and in-situ measurement methods.

Our findings indicate that water, sediments and nutrients in the river Moselle are well mixed, which makes surface data from remote sensing representative despite its limited penetration depth. However, the variable composition of different algae groups in the water and surface scum formation in the case of intensive cyanobacterial blooms, pose major challenges in the interpretation of remote sensing data to derive the concentration of suspended sediment and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in the water column.

Analysis of multispectral satellite data (here Sentinel-2) shows good results for Chl-a and turbidity quantification. We achieve high determination coefficients of up to 0.79, using different atmospheric corrections in combination with various algorithms for deriving Chl-a from satellite data using in-situ measurements. Limitations arise if algae groups vary or high Chl-a concentrations are accompanied by high turbidity. The analyses demonstrated the intricate optical interactions within aquatic environments, highlighting the challenges of accurately distinguishing and measuring water quality indicators through remote sensing techniques, showing advantages of hyperspectral methods.

Our research revealed significant variations in the performance of Chl-a algorithms and indices depending on the mix of algal groups present in the water. The current spectral bands available on the used UAS-sensor and the satellites proved insufficient for differentiating algal groups. However, the upcoming CHIME mission provides new opportunities for a more detailed analysis of aquatic ecosystems in the necessary spatial, spectral and temporal resolution and demonstrates the potential of advanced remote sensing technologies.

This research provides a novel, integrated framework for remote sensing based water quality monitoring that overcomes some limitations of traditional monitoring methods. It represents a significant step towards more dynamic, comprehensive, and efficient environmental monitoring strategies, with future research poised to leverage emerging satellite technologies for more nuanced ecological insights.

How to cite: Baschek, B., Brehm, T., Herrmann, M., Koch, D., Klotz, F., Kleinteich, J., Nicholls, C., and Hoffmann, T.: Multi-scale Monitoring of Water Quality in a Phytoplankton Carrying, European River - a case study of the Moselle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17411, 2025.

EGU25-17787 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Past trajectory of a socio-ecosystem at the land-sea interface: the case of the northern watersheds of the Bay of Brest over the last 150 years 

Clara Valero, Aurelie Penaud, Muriel Vidal, Sabine Schmidt, Pierre-Antoine Dessandier, Evelyne Goubert, Erwan Glemarec, Pierre Brigode, Lucas Bosseboeuf, Yves-Marie Paulet, Céline Liorzou, Sidonie Revillon, Ndèye Coumba Niass, Pierre Ailliot, Jean-Marc Derrien, Clément Lambert, and Raffaele Siano

The Bay of Brest (BB) is a macro-tidal estuarine environment that has been exposed to strong anthropogenic pressures over the last decades, especially after the Second World War. It is therefore considered as a regional pilot site for addressing coastal ecosystem transformations since the Industrial Revolution. We analysed 4 sediment cores collected in 2 different BB areas more or less exposed to marine hydrodynamic processes: i) Elorn sector (3 cores) and ii) Bay of Daoulas (1 core), in the inner BB, close to the mouth of the Daoulas river, with the aim of deciphering past environmental changes at a high temporal resolution (sub-decadal) over the last 150 years.

Working at a local spatial scale (BB) allows addressing robust correlations between driving forces and environmental changes, as previously demonstrated by pluridisciplinary approaches in the study area (Lambert et al., 2018; Siano et al., 2021). In this project, we are therefore building on this existing dataset (low resolution palynology on the Daoulas core and sedaDNA analyses in the 4 study cores) with the addition of new analyses (high resolution palynology in the Daoulas core and new data for the others, benthic foraminiferal assemblages, sedimentological data and ICP-AES elemental geochemistry in the Daoulas core), with a very fine study resolution (2-year resolution for the Daoulas and 2 to 16-year resolution for the others). Furthermore, statistical analyses based on paleoecological time series allow the detection of major break points, especially thanks to the palynological and sedimentological datasets.

This work then highlights 3 major thresholds (1945, 1960-170, 1980) allowing discussion of past changes in protist communities and in BB landscapes through time. These data are finally discussed in the light of reanalysis of regional precipitation signals (by modelling approaches based on NOAA data), instrumental data (nutrient concentrations) as well as historical chronicles (land-use practices and industrial-mining-war pressures) to tackle the main forcing factors responsible for coastal ecosystem transformations. We especially highlight the strong pressure of agriculture practices on trophic changes and degradation of BB’s water quality, as observed through coastal observatory series (IUEM, REPHY) with the recrudescence of toxic algal blooms since the 1980’s.

How to cite: Valero, C., Penaud, A., Vidal, M., Schmidt, S., Dessandier, P.-A., Goubert, E., Glemarec, E., Brigode, P., Bosseboeuf, L., Paulet, Y.-M., Liorzou, C., Revillon, S., Niass, N. C., Ailliot, P., Derrien, J.-M., Lambert, C., and Siano, R.: Past trajectory of a socio-ecosystem at the land-sea interface: the case of the northern watersheds of the Bay of Brest over the last 150 years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17787, 2025.

EGU25-17952 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

SWAT modelling to unveil and manage the impact of diffuse and point source pollution within Adige River basin  

Nico Dalla Libera, Sara Pasini, Ylenia Gelmini, Daniele Pedretti, and Corrado Camera

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used hydrological model designed to simulate water flow, sediment transport, and nutrient cycling in complex river basins. This study employs SWAT to assess the impact of both diffuse and point sources of nutrient contamination on river water quality in the Adige River basin, one of Italy's largest and most significant waterways. The Adige River basin presents a diverse hydrological system influenced by agricultural practices, urban development and industrial activities, making it a representative case for evaluating nutrient dynamics and their environmental implications in a complex contest.

Diffuse sources of nutrient pollution, primarily from agricultural runoff, contribute substantially to the nutrient load in the Adige River, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus. These nutrients often originate from fertilizers, animal manure and soil erosion and their impacts are exacerbated by rainfall and irrigation practices. Point sources, such as wastewater treatment plants, industrial effluents, and urban discharge points, introduce localized but often concentrated nutrient loads to the river system. Understanding the interaction between these sources is critical for developing effective management strategies which prioritize interventions to mitigate adverse effects on water quality.

Using SWAT, this study integrates extensive spatial and temporal data, including land use, soil properties, climate variables and hydrological records, to simulate nutrient fate and transport across the basin. The model’s ability to account for both diffuse and point sources allows for a holistic understanding of nutrient dynamics and investigating their cumulative and disaggregated impacts on the river. SWAT outputs are validated against observed water quality data, ensuring robust and reliable simulations.

The application of SWAT in the Adige River basin not only highlights the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of nutrient loads but also identifies critical source areas that disproportionately contribute to contamination. By simulating various land-use and management scenarios, SWAT provides actionable insights into how different interventions, such as buffer strips, reduced fertilizer application, or advanced wastewater treatment, can mitigate nutrient pollution. Furthermore, the model supports the identification of nutrient retention and removal hotspots within the river system, enhancing our understanding of the natural attenuation processes that influence contaminants fate.

The insights gained from SWAT modelling in the Adige River basin have broader implications for water quality management in similar river systems worldwide. The model's comprehensive approach to linking hydrological processes with nutrient dynamics strengthens the knowledge base for addressing diffuse and point source contamination. It offers a scientific foundation for formulating efficient guidelines and policies aimed at reducing nutrient inputs, improving wastewater management, and restoring aquatic ecosystems.

In conclusion, SWAT serves as a powerful tool for understanding the complex interplay between diffuse and point sources of contamination and their effects on river water quality. Its application in the Adige River basin underscores its utility in advancing knowledge about nutrient fate and transport and in guiding targeted, evidence-based strategies to mitigate contamination. This study highlights the pivotal role of hydrological models like SWAT in achieving sustainable river basin management and protecting water resources from the growing pressures of human activities.

How to cite: Dalla Libera, N., Pasini, S., Gelmini, Y., Pedretti, D., and Camera, C.: SWAT modelling to unveil and manage the impact of diffuse and point source pollution within Adige River basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17952, 2025.

EGU25-19242 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Diffuse pollution management in agricultural landscapes – a combined Source:Pathway Priority Index to target advice and resources for impact.  

Rachel Cassidy, Thomas Service, Kevin Atcheson, Taylor Harrison, Alex Higgins, Luke Farrow, Paddy Jack, and Phil Jordan

Diffuse pollution is a global issue where management, particularly of phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to water, must address both source and pathway pressures concurrently as part of effective mitigation. Where this is a widespread issue, policy makers, agri-environmental managers and farmers need a process of prioritisation that places the delivery point for diffuse P to a waterbody into a wider context of risk and maximises the impact of any mitigation for the limited resource available. However, data requirements and lack of a unified method have made this difficult to implement.

This study considers this challenge using field-by-field soil test P monitoring and high-resolution LiDAR runoff risk modelling being developed for all agricultural land in Northern Ireland through the Soil Nutrient Health Scheme. We combine long-term available water quality data for macro- and meso-scale catchments with this unique spatially explicit data set on soil test P and runoff risk (Hydrologically Sensitive Area (HSA)) combinations to rank risk to water quality down to a base unit of a micro-catchment scale (0.02 – 1.6 km2) delineated upslope from each delivery point to a waterbody. This is expressed as a dimensionless Source:Pressure Priority Index (SPPI) which conveys the combined source and pathway risk at a location but without any dimensioned values that would link to soil test P in specific fields and affect confidentiality of field-scale nutrient status information. With an average of 250 delivery points km-2 this approach can filter the highest category SPPI areas to ~1% of those micro-catchments where measures should be targeted first.

This combination and analysis of “big data” provides a whole-landscape risk ranking method for diffuse pollution management that can be directed centrally and rolled out more locally as part of catchment level agri-environmental schemes (AES) and in targeting advisory and extension services. This will ensure a faster route to diffuse pollution reduction and offer resilience as pathway mitigations become vulnerable to weather patterns and runoff responses in a changing climate.

How to cite: Cassidy, R., Service, T., Atcheson, K., Harrison, T., Higgins, A., Farrow, L., Jack, P., and Jordan, P.: Diffuse pollution management in agricultural landscapes – a combined Source:Pathway Priority Index to target advice and resources for impact. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19242, 2025.

EGU25-19332 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Dynamic monitoring and mapping of water quality indicators using multi-modal and multi-scale satellite imagery, UAVs, and open-source cloud computing platform 

Abhinav Galodha, Maria-Valasia Peppa, Sam Wilson, Sanya Anees, Brejesh Lall, and Shaikh Ziauddin Ahammad

Algal blooms, resulting from rapidly growing algae in freshwater and marine environments, pose serious risks to biodiversity, ecosystems, and human health. Algal blooms are predicted to increase due to temperature, nutrient availability, and alien species invasions. Satellite remote sensing products provide a versatile monitoring tool that complements in-situ sampling. This study used remote sensing products to investigate algal bloom dynamics across inland water bodies in England (Lake Windermere) and India (Yamuna and Ganga rivers). Specifically, Google Earth Engine was used to characterise BGA, MCI, and NDCI from high-resolution satellite data to investigate algal blooms in Windermere from 2020 to 2025 and Yamuna and Ganga rivers in 2021 to 2024. By integrating data from Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope, enhanced by UAV sensor technology for high-resolution data collection, we establish predictive models for assessing water quality parameters. To analyze the data, we implement ML algorithms. Our findings indicate that RF outperforms other ML algorithms when using Sentinel-2 data, achieving an overall accuracy of 70.71% with a Kappa statistic of 0.79. Integrating a similar methodology on PlanetScope and high-resolution drone imagery to improve and increase performance boost is an ongoing task. To assess phytoplankton blooms using satellite data, we are analyzing imagery from sources like Landsat-8, 9, MODIS, and Sentinel-2 to quantify the number of blooms based on chlorophyll-A concentrations. The effectiveness of this monitoring depends on the spatial resolution, which influences the detection of smaller blooms (high-resolution imagery captures more detail), and the temporal resolution, which affects the ability to monitor ephemeral events (daily data is optimal) and thus to actually quantify is a challenge per se. Even with the performance metrics, we establish correlations between band indices and in-situ field-based measurements (pH, temperature, salinity, conductivity, turbidity, etc.). An online dashboard application will be developed to visualize results through spectral band wavelength charts, time-series data, and spatial distribution maps by integrating UK and India’s environmental agency open-source data. The future scope of our methodology can incorporate advanced techniques such as SAM, spectral feature fitting, and continuum band removal for quantitative hyperspectral data analysis. This comparative analysis emphasizes the urgent need for continuous monitoring to protect ecosystems and public health in both regions. We advocate innovative, sustainable water resource management approaches by uniting advanced remote sensing technologies with traditional methods. Ultimately, our findings aim to inform interventions to improve water quality and ecological health, benefiting local communities and the ecosystems they depend on. Through collaborative efforts, this study aspires to enhance understanding of the intricate connections between water quality dynamics, paving the way for policymakers to adhere to comprehensive management strategies that address the needs of future generations by focusing on SDG-6 (clean water sanitation) and SDG-14 (life below water).

 

How to cite: Galodha, A., Peppa, M.-V., Wilson, S., Anees, S., Lall, B., and Ahammad, S. Z.: Dynamic monitoring and mapping of water quality indicators using multi-modal and multi-scale satellite imagery, UAVs, and open-source cloud computing platform, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19332, 2025.

EGU25-19410 | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

Leveraging Machine Learning to Enhance Water Quality Predictions in Small Agricultural Streams  

Jens Kiesel, Dave Braun, and Matthew Vaughan

Effective water quality management at the catchment scale requires robust tools to predict pollutant loads under diverse environmental conditions. This study introduces an innovative methodology employing machine learning models to estimate phosphorus (P) concentrations and loads in small catchments contributing to the Northeast Arm of Lake Champlain (NALC). The region is characterized by agricultural land use and dynamic hydrological conditions. Current challenges include the lack of monitoring data for small direct drainage streams and the high uncertainty in existing P load estimates.

To address these gaps, we propose a dual modeling framework using Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. Both models will be trained and validated using project-specific monitoring data, alongside extensive datasets from the USGS and regional monitoring programs. RF models, known for their interpretability and efficiency, will quantify predictor variable importance and generate insights into the key drivers of P loading. Complementarily, LSTM models, capable of capturing complex temporal dynamics, will provide high-resolution predictions of daily P loads and concentrations.

Our methodology highlights innovative monitoring strategies, including the deployment of stream gauging and water sampling stations at representative sites, capturing flow rates and concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), total dissolved phosphorus (TDP), and total suspended solids (TSS). These observations will be integrated into the machine learning framework, allowing a targeted validation of the model results. Preliminary analyses indicate disproportionately high P loading in small agricultural watersheds, underscoring the need for targeted interventions informed by reliable model predictions.

Expected outcomes of this study include the identification of source areas and processes driving P and sediment transport, as well as validated machine learning tools capable of estimating loads in ungauged basins. These models are designed to accommodate future scenarios of land use and climate change, providing resource managers with actionable insights to design effective mitigation strategies. By integrating high-resolution empirical data with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, this work advances the understanding and management of nutrient dynamics at the catchment scale.

How to cite: Kiesel, J., Braun, D., and Vaughan, M.: Leveraging Machine Learning to Enhance Water Quality Predictions in Small Agricultural Streams , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19410, 2025.

EGU25-20321 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.3

Divergent changes in river nitrogen export to coastal waters worldwide in the Anthropocene 

Junjie Wang, Xiaochen Liu, Lauriane Vilmin, Arthur H.W. Beusen, Alexander F. Bouwman, and Jack J. Middelburg

River transport of reactive nitrogen from land to sea is an important component of the nitrogen cycle, significantly influencing freshwater and coastal water quality and their ecosystem health. Human activities have markedly accelerated the Earth’s nitrogen cycle since pre-industrial times. Despite estimates of river total nitrogen export, the speciation of river nitrogen export to global coastal waters and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Assessing the long-term changes in the river export of different nitrogen forms to coastal systems worldwide in response to their different trajectories of human perturbations is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies for nitrogen pollution and improving water quality. In this study, we quantify the river export of different nitrogen forms to global coastal waters from 1900 till 2010 using the spatially explicit, mechanistic, coupled hydrology and biogeochemistry model IMAGE-DGNM. This model keeps track of nutrient supply from the land, perturbations of river network, and hydroclimate change, and describes the dynamic biogeochemical nitrogen transformations and transport along the terrestrial-freshwater continuum. Results show that although the river export of all major nitrogen forms increased during 1900-2010 at the global scale, some regions have shown stable or decreasing trends in recent decades. Moreover, the composition of different forms in river nitrogen export differs across different regions. Not only the fluxes but also the fractions of different forms changed differently across systems during 1900-2010, which emphasizes the importance of taking into account varied human impacts, climates and hydrological conditions to address the complexity of mitigating local nitrogen pollution.

How to cite: Wang, J., Liu, X., Vilmin, L., Beusen, A. H. W., Bouwman, A. F., and Middelburg, J. J.: Divergent changes in river nitrogen export to coastal waters worldwide in the Anthropocene, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20321, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20321, 2025.

EGU25-20482 | Orals | HS2.3.3

Satellite-derived trophic index to support management of small and medium-sized lakes  

Malte Zamzow, Andreas Matzinger, Michael Rustler, and Lucy Bastin

The trophic index is one of the most important indicators for primary production and potential anthropogenic eutrophication of lakes. In Germany, It is calculated from measured phosphorus concentration, visibility and chlorophyll-a content in water samples collected during the productive period between April and October. These parameters are monitored for most lakes > 50 ha, which are covered by the Water Framework Directive. Monitoring typically occurs only at a low interval of several years, making it difficult to distinguish trends in lake water quality from natural annual variations. Moreover, no information is available for small lakes < 50 ha, thus excluding a high proportion of lakes from trophic state monitoring.

In the presented work, we investigated the extent to which satellite data are able to fill these gaps. There are many indices for real-time water monitoring based on satellite images from the Copernicus Sentinel-2 program. Based on this existing know-how, the reliability of satellite-based trophic index assessment was validated along the following questions:

  • which bands of the Sentinel-2 images are best suited for estimating trophic state?
  • how does the data need to be temporally aggregated within a season?
  • is one pixel of a lake sufficient to reliably describe the trophic state of a lake, so small lakes can be included in the assessment?

The investigation was based on 294 lakes in Brandenburg, Germany. Monitored trophic index from the years 2018 to 2022 was correlated with satellite information for one pixel, chosen randomly in the center of each lake. The trophic index based on in-situ measurements is best calculated from monthly values. Similarly, satellite-derived indices were first averaged monthly and then seasonally (April to October in Germany).

Results show that Bands 2 and 5 of the Copernicus Sentinel-2 Mission are best suited to describe the differences of trophic state. The developed Normalized Difference Trophic Index (NDTrI) is based on single image indeces which are defined as:

Band 5 describes the near infrared reflectance at 705 nm, band 2 the reflectance of blue light at 490 nm. In oligotrophic lakes, band 2 reflectance usually dominates and the index is below zero.  The resulting NDTrI was found to be highly correlated with the in-situ data for the available years (Pearson correlation coefficient per year between 0.83 and 0.92). The data are available at an annual resolution, which is three times more frequent than the conventional analysis. This allows a much more reliable trend analysis, which can be used to monitor the success or lack of water quality management more quickly. The feasibility of the methodology, using only one pixel for each lake, indicates that thousands of small lakes can be included in the remote monitoring without much effort.

A first sensitivity analysis has shown that the classification is more reliable for eutrophic water bodies than for oligotrophic ones. Further factors influencing the accuracy of the method and potentials of trend as well as seasonal analysis will be investigated in the European Horizon projects AD4GD and ProCleanLakes.

How to cite: Zamzow, M., Matzinger, A., Rustler, M., and Bastin, L.: Satellite-derived trophic index to support management of small and medium-sized lakes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20482, 2025.

EGU25-20591 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.3

From Soil Moisture Patterns to Hydrological Connectivity: An Explainable AI Approach for Nitrate Modeling 

Felipe Saavedra, Noemi Vergopolan, Andreas Musolff, Ralf Merz, Carolin Winter, Zhenyu Wang, and Larisa Tarasova

Hydrological connectivity is crucial for the mobilization, transport, and transformation of nitrate, but quantifying it at the catchment scale remains challenging, especially when capturing the spatial features that influence hydrological transport. We address this challenge by leveraging SMAP-Hydroblocks (Vergopolan et al., 2021), a high-resolution soil moisture dataset, to explore spatial soil moisture patterns as proxies for hydrological connectivity by predicting stream nitrate concentrations. We simulated daily nitrate concentrations across nine U.S. catchments with diverse land cover and concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships using a multi-branch deep learning. We trained the model on discharge time series as an aggregated measure of hydrological connectivity, soil moisture spatial patterns to account spatial heterogeneities that influence hydrological connectivity, height above the nearest network maps as spatial flopath indicator and static proxies of nitrogen sources (nitrogen surplus and fraction of urban areas of catchments). 

Our model achieved robust performance, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.63 and a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.74 across the test period, outperforming traditional C-Q relationship models. Explainable AI (XAI) techniques revealed that spatial patterns of soil moisture contribute significantly to nitrate predictions, accounting for 30% of feature importance on average. Excluding these patterns decreased model accuracy by 14%. Explainable AI (XAI) methods revealed distinct hydrological responses across catchments: in catchments with positive C-Q patterns, spatial soil moisture patterns amplified nitrate transport during wet periods, while discharge dilution effects are more important in catchments with negative C-Q relationships. Attention maps highlighted near-stream zones as critical areas for predicting nitrate transport, reflecting their dominant role in hydrological connectivity and nitrate dynamics.

This study demonstrates the potential of integrating deep learning, XAI, and remote sensing products to quantify hydrological connectivity and nitrate dynamics. These findings provide new insights into the spatial and temporal variability of nitrate transport across catchments and a framework for improving water quality management.

Vergopolan, N., Chaney, N. W., Pan, M., Sheffield, J., Beck, H. E., Ferguson, C. R., Torres-Rojas, L., Sadri, S., & Wood, E. F. (2021). SMAP-HydroBlocks, a 30-m satellite-based soil moisture dataset for the conterminous US. Scientific Data, 8(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01050-2

How to cite: Saavedra, F., Vergopolan, N., Musolff, A., Merz, R., Winter, C., Wang, Z., and Tarasova, L.: From Soil Moisture Patterns to Hydrological Connectivity: An Explainable AI Approach for Nitrate Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20591, 2025.

EGU25-1191 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Development of Water Quality Index for Upper Yamuna River, India by using Multicriteria Decision Analysis 

Abdul Gani, Shray Pathak, and Athar Hussain

The increase in anthropogenic activities and rise in population in the Yamuna River basin have a significant impact on water quality, necessitating comprehensive assessment techniques for sustainable management. The objective of the present study is to develop a Water Quality Index (WQI) for the Upper Yamuna River, India by combining geospatial methods with a multicriteria decision-analysis technique. The data of different physio-chemical parameters for the upper Yamuna River was collected from the Central Water Commission for a period of 25 years (1997-2022). The spatial variability of water quality was highlighted in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the hotspots were identified. The methodology comprises of four steps: a) parameter selection, b) development of raring curves, c) use of principal component analysis to extract the principal components, d) use of hybrid aggregation technique to develop the WQI. At Poanta, WQI lies in the range of 44.04 to 87.09 with an average value of 65.02, while at Kalanaur, WQI varies in between 19.93 to 81.11 with an average value of 60.11. at Mawi, WQI ranges from 47.91 to 88.48 with an average value of 63.24 whereas, at Palla, WQI varies from 42.88 to 74.08 with an average value of 61.19. The average WQI value of all the locations characterizes the water quality as good. Although the water quality at the Kalanaur location varies significantly from very poor quality to good quality due to the improper disposal of industrial waste into the Yamuna River. The study underscores the sections of the river that are having poor water quality at urban and industrial locations due to high pollution levels. The study emphasizes the importance of integrating spatial analysis with water quality modeling to effectively handle challenging environmental issues. Further, the experts may implement the WQI to deploy mitigation measures and develop strategic planning for the sustainable water quality management of Upper Yamuna River.

Keywords: GIS, Multicriteria Decision-Making, Spatial Variability, Sustainable Management, Yamuna River.

How to cite: Gani, A., Pathak, S., and Hussain, A.: Development of Water Quality Index for Upper Yamuna River, India by using Multicriteria Decision Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1191, 2025.

EGU25-2718 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.4

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature under climate change 

Edward R. Jones and Michelle T. H. van Vliet

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor for determining the health, functioning and services provided by aquatic ecosystems. While analysis of existing observational data indicates that freshwaters are warming across the globe, the availability of long-term water temperature monitoring data remains limited in several regions of the world (e.g. Africa, South America, parts of Asia).

Models offer unique possibilities to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of surface water temperature beyond what is possible through monitoring efforts alone. Water temperature models have been developed and applied for past and future conditions across various spatial scales, from individual lakes and streams to global applications. With a few notable exceptions, comparisons of water temperature simulations across different models are scarce. Aligning with ongoing activities within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), here we compare simulations of surface freshwater temperature from 11 surface water quality models (7 river and 4 lake models) that consistently used bias-corrected climate forcing from either CMIP5 (ISIMIP2) or CMIP6 (ISIMIP3).

Our multi-model ensemble suggests that surface water temperatures have risen substantially over the last 40 years, with global average annual water temperatures already 0.5 – 0.8 ºC warmer than at the turn of the century, and that warming will extend and intensify with future climate change throughout the 21st century. For example, the multi-model ensemble suggests that global average annual water temperatures will rise by approximately +1 ºC under RCP2.6, +2 ºC under RCP4.5, +2.5 ºC under RCP6.0, +3 ºC under RCP7.0 and +4 ºC under RCP8.5 by the end of the century, compared to a historical reference period (1981-2000). Despite the consistent projections of warming, inter-model differences can be substantial. Furthermore, water temperature simulations are demonstrated to be highly sensitive to the meteorological forcing from different global climate models. To further unpack these aspects, in addition to evaluate model performance and better elucidate spatio-temporal patterns in water temperature projections, in this presentation we will display additional analysis on modelled output from three river water temperature models (CWatM-WQ, DynQual and WaterGap2) run using the state-of-the-art ISIMIP3 climatological forcing. To illustrate a potential societal impact of these projected water temperature rises, we quantified the associated reduction in usable capacity of existing thermoelectric powerplants globally.

How to cite: Jones, E. R. and van Vliet, M. T. H.: A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2718, 2025.

EGU25-2851 | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Understanding the effects of future climate, land cover and land management change on total phosphorus losses to lakes in Scotland 

Miriam Glendell, Zisis Gagkas, Kerr Adams, Linda May, and Phil Taylor

This study simulated the terrestrial losses of total phosphorus (TP) likely to be delivered to 6,836 standing waters in Scotland via surface and sub-surface pathways to explore the potential of measures to mitigate the impact of future climatic and land cover change on TP loads. TP losses from land were simulated in kg-1 ha-1 yr-1 at 100 × 100 m raster resolution, using a spatial Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)1. Diffuse sources through drains and by soil erosion; incidental losses from farmyards; sewage treatment works (STWs) and septic tanks (STs) were included.

To understand the effects of future climate change, two Representative Concentration Pathways  RCP2.6 (~1.5oC warming by 2080) and RCP6 (~3 oC warming by 2080) were coupled with future land cover change until 2040, 2060 and 2080 from CRAFTY-GB2 (based on stakeholder-elaborated Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1 – Sustainability and SSP3 – Regional rivalry). In addition, land management mitigation measures were simulated to examine their potential to reduce TP losses from land during baseline period. Modelled scenarios included fertiliser application rates ‘at’ and ‘below’ agronomic optimum; increase in extent of buffer strips to 8m and a combination of measures.

Expansion of arable land and intensification of agriculture under the higher emissions scenario RCP6 linked to unfavourable land use changes in SSP3, could more than double TP inputs to standing waters, while sustainable land use reconfiguration in SSP1 associated with lower emissions scenarios RCP2.6 was found to reduce TP losses by up to 20% by 2080.

Land-based mitigation measures focused on maintaining soil nutrient status at, or below, the agronomic optimum reduced TP inputs to standing waters, in some cases by more than 40% during the baseline period. This shows that holistic management of soils to maximise soil organic matter content and nutrient use efficiency, supported by soil testing and optimisation of fertiliser applications, would reduce terrestrial TP losses. Conversely, smaller-scale interventions, such as buffer strips, did not affect TP losses to water significantly at a catchment scale.

  • May, L., Glendell, M., Adams, K., Gagkas, Z., Gouldsbrough, L., Gunn, I., Hannah, M., Roberts, M., Spears, B., Taylor, P., Thackeray, S., Troldborg, M., Zaja, E. (2024) Mitigating Climate Change Impacts on the Water Quality of Scottish Standing Waters. Centre of Expertise for Waters https://www.crew.ac.uk/publication/mitigating-climate-change-phase-2
  • Brown, C. et al. (2022) Agent-Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System. Earth’s Futur. 10. 10.1029/2022EF002905

How to cite: Glendell, M., Gagkas, Z., Adams, K., May, L., and Taylor, P.: Understanding the effects of future climate, land cover and land management change on total phosphorus losses to lakes in Scotland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2851, 2025.

EGU25-4332 | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Projecting future riverine nitrogen exports to the Wadden Sea 

Andreas Musolff, Andreas Gericke, Tam V. Nguyen, Pia Ebeling, Justus E.E. van Beusekom, and Rohini Kumar

Despite decades of efforts to reduce nutrient pollution, Europe is still confronted with elevated nutrient concentrations in ground- and surface waters. This is a result of nutrient inputs from intensive agriculture, wastewater collection and treatment and atmospheric deposition. As a consequence, inland and marine waters suffer from persistent eutrophication problems manifested as algal blooms, changes in species composition, oxygen depletion, and no full recovery of seagrass. Water management must address this problem by finding additional nutrient reduction measures and assess their effectiveness to ensure good water quality also under a changing climate. To plan nutrient reduction measures and assess their effectiveness, predictive modelling tools are essential but challenging to apply at large spatial scales and under changing boundary conditions. Here, we present results of the EU-funded project NAPSEA addressing eutrophication and nutrient management in the Elbe and Rhine basins and the receiving Wadden Sea (the intertidal zone of the south-eastern North Sea). More specifically, we explore future trajectories of reactive nitrogen (N) concentrations and loads exported from the Elbe and Rhine basins under different nutrient input scenarios. We use the transit-time based catchment water quality model mQM calibrated to long-term observations (>10 yrs) in more than 140 sub-catchments. The model takes nitrogen surplus as a diffuse source that is routed through different soil compartments and the subsurface, with flowpaths to the streams represented by dynamic transit time distributions. In the river network, inputs from wastewater point source and instream removal are considered. The modelled scenarios address the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle (RCP4.5) and the planned measures for the different nitrogen pathways between 2022 and 2050. More specifically, we quantify the effects of the new urban wastewater treatment directive, the revised German fertilizer ordinance, the expected reduction in atmospheric deposition and nature-based solutions such as reactivated floodplains. We found that the projected changes in discharge and the joint nutrient reduction measures will have a similar magnitude of effect on nutrient exports. The effectiveness of nutrient reduction measures is spatially heterogeneous,depending on the land use composition and the natural attenuation potential of the different basins. The reduction of agricultural N surplus and atmospheric deposition has a higher impact on the Rhine basin, unlike the Elbe basin where the benefits of regulations on urban wastewater prevail. Overall, our results reveal a 15-27% reduction in nutrient exports to the Wadden Sea (average 2045-2050) compared to the average export in the years 2010-2020. While these results are encouraging, a significant gap remains to the estimated reduction needs to sufficiently reduce nitrate pollution of inland waters and to reach safe ecological boundaries of the Wadden Sea. More ambitious nutrient reduction measures are needed to ensure future a good status of inland and coastal waters.

How to cite: Musolff, A., Gericke, A., Nguyen, T. V., Ebeling, P., van Beusekom, J. E. E., and Kumar, R.: Projecting future riverine nitrogen exports to the Wadden Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4332, 2025.

EGU25-5193 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Nutrient mitigation pathways for sustainable lake ecosystems in Europe 

Albert Nkwasa, Raffaele Pelorosso, Maria Nicolina Ripa, Mara Nilca, Iulia Puiu, and Taher Kahil

Excessive nutrient loading into rivers, lakes, and estuaries has been a primary driver of aquatic ecosystem degradation worldwide, and European lakes are no exception. Nutrient inputs from agriculture, compounded by climate change, threaten the ecological integrity of these water bodies. Sustainable management strategies must prioritize reducing external nutrient and sediment inputs from catchments, focusing on source control measures such as maintaining nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) levels in agricultural soils at or below optimal agronomic conditions, while enhancing natural attenuation processes along water and solute transport pathways. This study evaluates the impacts of different land use management options on European lake ecosystems under current and future climate change and socio-economic drivers. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+), we simulate nutrient and sediment load transport from catchments to receiving lakes, while the GPLake-M model assesses lake ecological regime shifts to identify optimal management and restoration strategies. The methodology is applied to case studies of Lakes Vico, Dümmer, and Bisret, serving as demonstration sites to inform broader applications across Europe. Our findings highlight pathways for reducing nutrient loading and achieving sustainable lake management, aligning with freshwater and climate policy objectives in the context of a changing climate, degrading aquatic ecosystems, and rising demands on land and food systems.

How to cite: Nkwasa, A., Pelorosso, R., Nicolina Ripa, M., Nilca, M., Puiu, I., and Kahil, T.: Nutrient mitigation pathways for sustainable lake ecosystems in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5193, 2025.

EGU25-5442 | Orals | HS2.3.4

Scenario Analysis of Total Organic Carbon Changes in South Korea's Four Major Rivers under Climate Change Using Machine Learning 

Seunghyeon Lee, Jungi Moon, Sangjin Jung, Sungmin Suh, Jeonghwan Baek, Chanhae Ok, and Jongcheol Pyo

Total Organic Carbon (TOC) refers to the total amount of carbon contained in all organic matter present in water and is used as a key indicator of water pollution. Elevated TOC concentrations in water can lead to decreased dissolved oxygen levels and accelerated eutrophication, causing severe impacts on river and aquatic ecosystems. Moreover, the increase in toxic substances and pathogenic microorganisms may compromise the safety of drinking water sources.

Recent changes in rainfall patterns, rising water temperatures, and ecosystem shifts driven by climate change have further increased uncertainties in water quality monitoring and TOC prediction. To mitigate potential socio-economic damages caused by delays in greenhouse gas reduction and carbon neutrality policy implementation, this study aims to predict the TOC concentrations of Korea’s four major rivers—the Geum, Nakdong, Yeongsan, and Han Rivers—using various machine learning algorithms and climate change scenarios based on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report’s RCP and SSP frameworks.

Water quality data from 2008 to 2022, including water temperature, DO, BOD, COD, chlorophyll-a, TN, TP, pH, conductivity, dissolved total phosphorus, dissolved total nitrogen, NH3-N, NO3-N, SS, and TOC, were combined with daily average temperature, background CO2 concentration, and precipitation data. Various machine learning algorithms, including CNN, ANN, Random Forest, and XGBoost, were employed to compare TOC prediction performance and identify the optimal model. Using the machine learning models trained on historical data, future water TOC concentrations were predicted by inputting scenario-based temperature and precipitation data. Climate change scenario data, specifically the SSP5-8.5 detailed daily data for South Korea, were utilized to predict and compare future TOC concentrations in water from 2023 to 2100 across different time periods.

Through this study, we aim to forecast the changing trends of TOC in Korea’s four major rivers and analyze the significance of TOC in achieving carbon neutrality. This research will contribute to the development of water quality management strategies aligned with climate change mitigation efforts. 

How to cite: Lee, S., Moon, J., Jung, S., Suh, S., Baek, J., Ok, C., and Pyo, J.: Scenario Analysis of Total Organic Carbon Changes in South Korea's Four Major Rivers under Climate Change Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5442, 2025.

EGU25-5585 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Interplay Between Climate Extreme Events, Land Use, And Water Quality: An Artificial Intelligence Multi-Risk Assessment Approach  

Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Jacopo Furlanetto, Silvia Torresan, and Andrea Critto

River water quality is critical in maintaining ecosystem health, as it can directly influence biodiversity and access to clean water. However, the interaction between extreme climate events and human activities can lead to compounded effects that significantly alter water quality dynamics. The impacts of these combined factors are often complex, non-linear, and poorly understood, posing significant challenges for water resource management. Supervised machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence offer innovative tools to address these complexities. This study applied an integrated framework combining Random Forest (RF) Classifiers with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to reveal the intricate relationships between land use, climate extremes, and their compounded effects on water quality at a high spatial resolution (867 elemental river basin), testing it in Veneto Region (northeastern Italy). The framework was applied to provide annual predictions of impacts on water quality elements to support the evaluation of ecological status according to the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC. The models have been applied on water quality data from 2010-2022, considering as predictors seasonal hot, dry and wet extreme climate hazard indicators, together with land use/cover metrics and territorial characteristics to represent specific river basins’ vulnerabilities. Three RF models were developed for physicochemical elements, specific pollutants, and biological alterations water quality indicators, and resulted in overall accuracies of 0.87, 0.81, and 0.85, respectively. The findings highlighted that temperature extremes acted as critical drivers, particularly when combined with droughts. Specific natural features (i.e. % of basin vegetated area, natural river typology, soil permeability) were identified as buffers against adverse impacts on water quality following extreme climate conditions. Conversely, anthropogenic land use intensified negative effects, especially when exceeding specific thresholds. The results confirm that the applied approach has the potential to aid decision-making by providing insights into multi-hazard-risks on water quality and highlighting the importance of holistic river basin management plans that prioritize nature-based solutions, ecosystem restoration, and strategic land use policies to strengthen climate resilience.

How to cite: Ngoc Nguyen, D., Furlanetto, J., Torresan, S., and Critto, A.: Interplay Between Climate Extreme Events, Land Use, And Water Quality: An Artificial Intelligence Multi-Risk Assessment Approach , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5585, 2025.

EGU25-6274 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.4

Arsenic Speciation and Pressure Monitoring in a Hungarian Water Distribution Network 

Jonathan Clayton, Leigh Terry, and Viktor Mihucz

Arsenic concentrations in the groundwater in the Hungarian Great Plain region are naturally high with background levels up to 225 μg/L. Being largely dependent on this arsenic-rich water, Hungary has suffered compromised drinking water quality for decades. In 2016, the European Commission issued an infringement notice calling for compliance with the European Union Drinking Water Directive arsenic regulations for 66 non-compliant zones out of the 365 water supply zones in Hungary. As of 2022, the number of zones in non-compliance was reduced to 13 through the Environment and Energy Operative Program. Despite reforms, drinking water systems in Hungary are still susceptible to arsenic contamination due to accumulation and infiltration in the water distribution system. Trace amounts of arsenic not removed in water treatment processes can accumulate in biofilms, mineral deposits, and pipe scale within the distribution system. These arsenic-laden masses may release concentrated arsenic deposits when disturbed by pressure alterations triggered by repair and maintenance activities, power interruptions, and valve operations in the system. Arsenic-rich groundwater also enters the potable water supply during negative pressure events through pipe breakage and leaks in the pipe network. These pathways for arsenic exposure have not been thoroughly investigated and subsequent impacts to drinking water, especially in aging distribution systems and under increasing climate stressors, is uncertain.

Arsenic exposure was investigated in a small water distribution system in the Hungarian Great Plain because small systems are susceptible to high water age and low flows which can exacerbate contaminant buildup in the system. Weekly water samples from public faucets and source water were analyzed for temporal and spatial fluctuations in arsenic, manganese, iron, pH, conductivity, alkalinity, and oxidation/reduction potential from September 2024 to May 2025, with a 3-month break for winter. Total samples collected will be around 300. Nine fire hydrant-mounted pressure sensors were used with a hydraulic model to investigate hydraulic influences on water quality, while rainfall and water temperature were recorded to account for climatic factors. Water system maintenance activities were noted to account for external interference in normal system operations. Localized spikes in arsenic up to 14 μg/L were detected. The highest arsenic concentration was concurrent with maintenance activity, atypically high redox potential, and pressure drops in the system. Trend analysis and predictive modeling results will be presented to describe the relationships between hydraulic, climatic, and water quality parameters in the system.

How to cite: Clayton, J., Terry, L., and Mihucz, V.: Arsenic Speciation and Pressure Monitoring in a Hungarian Water Distribution Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6274, 2025.

EGU25-9079 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Chloride Concentrations in German Rivers and Their Impact on the Potential Distribution of the Golden Algae Prymnesium parvum  

Lea Teltsch, Andreas Musolff, Martin Volk, and Alexander Wachholz

Freshwater salinization poses a threat to river ecosystems, with anthropogenic influences playing a crucial role. A low discharge rate can further increase river salinity. The destructive impact of this issue became evident in Germany and Poland in August 2022, when elevated chloride levels in the Oder River facilitated the bloom of Prymnesium parvum, a toxic brackish-water alga. The release of its toxin led to an ecological disaster with a massive fish kill, highlighting the urgent need for analysis and preventive measures to avoid similar incidents in the future.

Using data from 1,628 stream water monitoring stations in Germany, this study examines which rivers are particularly affected by chloride concentrations above critical thresholds. By quantifying the concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationship for chloride at 250 stations, we assessed whether chloride concentrations can be reliably predicted from discharge data. Correlation analyses with catchment characteristics allowed the discussion of chloride input pathways and their influence on the C-Q model parameters. Finally, station-specific discharge values were determined, at which critical chloride thresholds are exceeded, thereby impeding the achievement of a good ecological status and promoting the spread of the alga P. parvum.

We found that more than 70% of all stations reach or exceed 50 mg/l chloride at least once. For a threshold value of 200 mg/l it was 16%, with 8% of these showing near-permanent exceedances. Around 9% of the monitoring stations surpass a critical value of 300 mg/l. Distinct spatial patterns of elevated chloride levels are particularly noticeable in the Weser River network, the Saale, the Oder River near the Polish border, and the Ems, as well as in or in proximity to major cities such as Berlin and Frankfurt. Our results further indicate that the C-Q relationship varies significantly across river systems. While more than half the stations (64.8%) exhibit a dilution pattern between discharge and chloride concentration, stations showing chemostatic behavior suggest more complex input pathways. The correlation analysis revealed that chloride concentrations are controlled by hydroclimatic characteristics, land use and the input of wastewater. Surprisingly, lithological and hydrogeological factors have a comparatively minor impact on surface water chloride levels.

These results illustrate the complex, region-specific dynamics of chloride pollution in rivers, and underscore the need for targeted management strategies that account for hydrological variability. Refined predictive models that consider both temporal and spatial variability of chloride sources and the dilution potential of rivers are essential for developing such management strategies.

How to cite: Teltsch, L., Musolff, A., Volk, M., and Wachholz, A.: Chloride Concentrations in German Rivers and Their Impact on the Potential Distribution of the Golden Algae Prymnesium parvum , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9079, 2025.

EGU25-9219 | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Monitoring Eutrophic Conditions in Lanalhue Lake (Chile): Insights into Pollution Sources with Landsat-8 OLI Data 

Santiago Yépez, Francisco Ballesteros, Germán Velásquez, Jordi Cristóbal, and Lien Rodriguez-López

This study examines the trophic state of Lake Lanalhue, in the south-central region of Chile, and its relation with the anthropogenic pressure. To assess the impacts on water quality, Landsat-8 OLI satellite imagery was integrated with in-situ data collected between 2014 and 2022. The analysis focused on estimating Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS), by developing retrieval models based on spectral relationships and direct measurements obtained from the lake. For Chl-a estimation, an exponential relationship derived from green band showed strong correlation with in-situ data. Estimation of TSS was based on the spectral red/blue ratio, optimized to capture the optical scattering characteristics associated with suspended sediments in the water column. These models enabled the generation of spatial distribution maps highlighting differences in water quality, with the southern sector of the lake being the most impacted by eutrophication process. This area consistently recorded the highest concentrations of Chl-a and TSS, confirming an advanced trophic state associated with significant nutrient and sediment inputs from agricultural, livestock, and urban activities in the watershed. A comparison of 2014 and 2022 data revealed an intensification of the eutrophication process. The study underscores the utility of remote sensors as an efficient tool for long-term environmental monitoring of water bodies. This information is essential for guiding environmental management and informing the implementation of effective management strategies.

Keywords: Water Quality; Eutrophication; Landsat-8 OLI; Retrospective Analysis; Chilean Lakes

How to cite: Yépez, S., Ballesteros, F., Velásquez, G., Cristóbal, J., and Rodriguez-López, L.: Monitoring Eutrophic Conditions in Lanalhue Lake (Chile): Insights into Pollution Sources with Landsat-8 OLI Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9219, 2025.

Riverine nitrogen (N) loading is increasing rapidly due to both climate change and human activities, posing severe threats to global water quality. However, the contributions of precipitation, temperature and their interactions in driving these increases remain insufficiently understood at global scale. Here, we establish a Global River Nitrogen and Discharge (GRIND) observations database and develop a machine learning model to generate high-resolution (5-arcminute) spatially explicit estimates of global riverine N loading, using 14 explanatory predictors to elucidate the complex interactions between climate change and anthropogenic N inputs. Our findings show that the top 20% of high-loading river basins contribute 61% of global riverine N loading, among which 89% of these basins locate in regions experiencing high precipitation or intensive anthropogenic N inputs. Notably, rising precipitation and temperature amplify N loading in high-input regions, with the most significant effects occurring when precipitation ranges from 500 to 1500 mm yr⁻¹, and temperature and soil nitrogen content exceed 6°C and 450 cg/kg, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, global riverine N loading is projected to increase by 0.5-3.6 Tg yr⁻¹ by the late century, even if current “business-as-usual” N input levels persist. Precipitation-driven increases are most pronounced in tropical and temperate regions between 40°S and 40°N, where an estimated 16.7±19.6% rise in N loading is expected, escalating water quality risks in these densely populated areas. In contrast, temperature-driven increases dominate in the Arctic region North of 60°N, exceeding 10%. To address the growing complexity of global water quality deterioration, we propose the Climate-Sensitive Nitrogen Reduction (CLEAN) framework, which identifies high-risk regions for future N loading and recommends strategies to mitigate the combined risks posed by climate change and human activities.

How to cite: Li, J. and Kahil, T.: Climate change amplifies the impacts of anthropogenic inputs on nitrogen loading in global rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9508, 2025.

Future coastal water quality is expected to be at risk due to growing socioeconomic developments including economy, population, urbanization, and agriculture. While challenges to water quantity are widely acknowledged and water quality studies for single pollution types are available, inequality aspects are hardly addressed between coastal water pollution and socioeconomic drivers worldwide in a spatially explicit way. Economic inequalities play a key role in shaping the impacts of coastal water pollution, making low-income communities more vulnerable to its effects on health and livelihoods while limiting their ability to respond to pollution reduction. Research on economic inequalities in coastal water pollution has predominantly focused on single pollutants at regional levels, particularly in the Global North (e.g., the United States and Europe). In contrast, the Global South (e.g., Africa and Asia), which is expected to face severe multi-pollution challenges, has been, less studied. Moreover, most studies rely on empirical approaches and do not often incorporate socioeconomic distributions into pollution modelling frameworks. Furthermore, comprehensive global models that address multiple pollutants, their sources, and the distribution of pollution hotspots across different income groups remain scarce.

This study models the distribution of future multi-pollutant hotspots for coastal waters and analyses them in relation to income classes and future socioeconomic developments. Using the MARINA-Multi model1 (developed in previous studies), we project river exports of nutrients, plastics and chemicals under an economic-driven scenario with reactive environmental management, and we identify coastal water pollution hotspots and their drivers, and analyze them concerning income levels. Our preliminary results reveal pronounced regional and income-based disparities in future pollution hotspots, with stark contrasts between Africa and Asia. By 2050, Asia is projected to face severe pollution driven by rising fertilizer use, related to agricultural intensification, and plastic waste despite ongoing efforts to reduce fertilizer and manure use. In contrast, Africa’s pollution challenges will primarily originate from rapid population growth and inadequate sanitation systems, reflecting a lack of advancement in wastewater and solid waste management services that cannot keep pace with its fast-growing population. These differing drivers highlight the distinct socio-economic and infrastructural challenges faced by each region. By linking socio-economic factors to pollution, this research supports strategies for improving water quality and advancing Sustainable Development Goals 6 and 14, offering critical insights for better global water resource management.

References

Micella, I.Kroeze, C.Bak, M. P.Tang, T.Wada, Y., & Strokal, M. (2024). Future scenarios for river exports of multiple pollutants by sources and sub-basins worldwide: Rising pollution for the Indian OceanEarth's Future12, e2024EF004712. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004712

How to cite: Micella, I., Bak, M., Tang, T., and Strokal, M.: Inequalities in future hotspots of coastal water pollution and their socioeconomic drivers in Africa and Asia: a multi-pollutant modelling approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9551, 2025.

EGU25-9569 | Orals | HS2.3.4

Responses of nutrient loadings entering coastal waters to climate-driven hydrological changes worldwide 

Mirjam Bak, Ilaria Micella, Ting Tang, and Maryna Strokal

Good water quality is essential for society and ecosystems, but it has been a pressing issue in many rivers and coastal waters. Harmful algal blooms resulting from eutrophication are examples of such matters. Eutrophication is often linked to excessive nutrient loadings and climate change (e.g. temperature and precipitation changes). Global water quality models can be used to understand better how nutrients respond to changes in climate and socio-economic developments. Changing climates result in changing hydrological cycles including river discharges. Nutrient flows from land to seas are, in turn, dependent on these hydrological cycles.  Increased runoff, resulting from increases in long-term precipitation or precipitation intensity, may transport more nutrients from land to rivers. As a result, climate change may further exacerbate nutrient problems in the future. However, our understanding of how nutrients in coastal waters respond to uncertainties in climate-driven hydrological changes on land is limited at large scales. This especially holds for global water quality models projecting nutrient loadings to coastal waters worldwide. Water quality models rely on hydrological projections using global hydrological models (GHMs), which are further driven by Global Climate Models (GCMs). Numerous GCMs exist, each simplifying complex systems, and adding uncertainty to their projections. Uncertainties may then propagate through the modelling chain, potentially affecting the robustness of global water quality model results.

Here, we aim to better understand how future nutrient exports by rivers respond to hydrological changes driven by different GCMs and how this affects model reliability. For this, we use a soft-coupled model system accounting for water quantity (VIC model1) and water quality (MARINA-Multi model2) under a rapid urbanisation and high global warming scenario. Then, we introduce an approach to compare projected trends of nutrient loadings to coastal waters for 2050 across five selected GCMs, which diverge in their climate forcings. This study contributes to the first global-scale water quality model intercomparison effort as initiated by the Water Quality sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Preliminary results reveal that climate-driven hydrological changes will mainly add uncertainties to projections in arid regions. Nevertheless, a vast majority of the global surface areas agree on trends in nutrient exports by rivers for at least three out of five GCMs. Yet, agreements may differ across sea regions. Our approach can be used to identify robust trends in future nutrient loadings to seas under climate-driven hydrological changes, enhancing the reliability of global water quality models. This aids in identifying effective solutions for coastal water pollution worldwide under climate change.    

1Van Vliet, M. T. H., Van Beek, L. P. H., Eisner, S., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2016). Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change. Global Environmental Change, 40, 156-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.007

2Micella, I., Kroeze, C., Bak, M. P., Tang, T., Wada, Y., & Strokal, M. (2024). Future scenarios for river exports of multiple pollutants by sources and sub-basins worldwide: Rising pollution for the Indian Ocean. Earth's Future, 12, e2024EF004712. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004712

How to cite: Bak, M., Micella, I., Tang, T., and Strokal, M.: Responses of nutrient loadings entering coastal waters to climate-driven hydrological changes worldwide, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9569, 2025.

EGU25-9694 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.4

Bayesian Network application to assess Water Quality from a Water-Energy-Food Nexus perspective: A case study in the Upper Adige River Basin (Italy) 

Mathilda Vogt, Anna Sperotto, Alba Márquez Torres, Stefano Balbi, and Andrea Critto

In the context of Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus security, it is imperative to place greater emphasis on the water quality dimension to ensure sustainable and resilient systems. While traditionally much focus has been placed on the availability of water, recently the quality of water emerged as a critical factor that limits its supply across various sectors, including agriculture, energy production, human and ecological needs. 

The impacts of global change—including climate change and land use intensification to meet socio-economic development needs—are reshaping water availability and quality in complex ways, influencing both the quantity of usable water and its suitability for specific purposes. Understanding these interconnections is vital for assessing the broader implications of clean water availability, as poor water quality can constrain sectoral efficiency and undermine ecosystem health. A spatial Bayesian Network (BN) model has been developed to predict the conjoined impacts of future climate change and land use trajectories on water chemistry in the Upper Adige River basin in Northern Italy. It allows to predict different water quality indicators (e.g. nutrient concentration, Dissolved Oxygen, temperature, pH, Total Suspended Solids) at the sub-catchment and seasonal scale and to classify their status (i.e. LIMeco Index) according to the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC. The model has been implemented using ARIES  (Artificial Intelligence for Environment and Sustainability), a Machine Reasoning platform for data and model integration. The model has been trained with historical water quality data from 2013-2022, considering as predictors specific indicators that serve as proxies for the different nexus sectors as well as external drivers (i.e. climate and land use). The strength of this work lies in enabling a spatial understanding of the drivers influencing water quality, allowing the identification of critical sources of pressures on water quality related to different economic sectors, and the spatial mapping of priority areas most affected by these pressures, as well as the prediction of the conjoined impacts of different scenarios (i.e. climate change,  land use change, anthropic stressors). The findings highlighted that diffuse sources attributable to agricultural activities, forest management, and the presence of highly urbanised areas play a greater role in influencing nutrient concentration than point sources and that while expected land use changes are quite significant in some basins, their impacts are moderated by hydroclimatic variables such as flow conditions and temperature, which vary considerably between seasons. By identifying hotspots of nutrient pollution and the key variables influencing water quality, the findings provide valuable tools for local authorities to implement measures and plans aimed at mitigating water quality deterioration. In the broader context of WEF nexus management, the results of this research underscore the importance of proactive water management strategies that account for the complex interactions between land use, climate, and water quality.

How to cite: Vogt, M., Sperotto, A., Márquez Torres, A., Balbi, S., and Critto, A.: Bayesian Network application to assess Water Quality from a Water-Energy-Food Nexus perspective: A case study in the Upper Adige River Basin (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9694, 2025.

EGU25-10112 | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Future evolution of surface water quality in the Huasco river basin, Chile under climate change scenarios: compliance with environmental standards 

Iván Fuentes, Matías Peredo, Ximena Vargas, Katherine Lizama, and Alida Pérez

The Huasco river basin, located in the arid north of Chile (28-30° S), is particularly important due to the ecosystem services that provides in the Huasco Valley. To contribute to the conservation of their aquatic ecosystems and associated ecosystem services, a Secondary Environmental Quality Standard (Norma Secundaria de Calidad Ambiental, NSCA) was recently established to protect the surface waters of the basin.

In addition to intense and incremental demand for water resources, primarily by agriculture, due to climate change a significant decrease in precipitation and increase in maximum and minimum temperature are projected in the basin.

In order to evaluate the future compliance of the NSCA in the Huasco river basin, we implemented a hydrological model (SWAT+) and water quality model (WASP) considering the corresponding surveillance areas of the Huasco river and its tributaries, and selected water quality parameters included in the NSCA. Due to the start of the operation of the Santa Juana reservoir in 1997, which regulates the volume assigned annually for water rights in the basin, the period from 1999 to 2020 is used for the calibration and validation of the models. Under different climate change scenarios, flow series are being generated for the near and mid future (2030 – 2060), which will allow us to evaluate the susceptibility of the water quality parameters to change in flows, generate their projections, evaluate their expected behavior and ultimately the future compliance with the established water quality standards.

How to cite: Fuentes, I., Peredo, M., Vargas, X., Lizama, K., and Pérez, A.: Future evolution of surface water quality in the Huasco river basin, Chile under climate change scenarios: compliance with environmental standards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10112, 2025.

EGU25-10209 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Upscaling groundwater quality models to the global domain scale 

Floris S.R. Teuling, Nynke Hofstra, and Inge E.M. de Graaf

Groundwater acts as a long-term water quality buffer due to its wide range of residence times, spanning days to thousands of years (Maxwell et al., 2016). This makes groundwater a critical freshwater resource, especially where surface water quality or quantity is limited. However, contamination from emerging pollutants, influences of climate change, and changing water management, land use, and agricultural practices, likely increasingly lead to undesirable groundwater quality worldwide (Lapworth et al., 2023). Despite identification of this trend, the extent of these changes remains poorly understood, except for specific local and regional groundwater systems.

Mechanistic, physically-based models for predicting groundwater quality at global scales are not yet available, and field data are sparse. In this study, we review groundwater quality models for catchment scales and above and assess whether these approaches are scalable for global applications. Current models are constrained by computational demands, and insufficient subsurface data and knowledge of kinetic processes. Using numerical experiments for nitrogen cycling, we highlight the associated geochemical uncertainties to these subsurface conditions.

With the upscaling of 2D transport models to the kilometer grid scale we demonstrate what limitations follow from global hydrological models when used for groundwater quality modelling. At coarse kilometer-scale grids, sinks and sources tied to landscape features are poorly represented, causing inaccuracies in flow paths and therefore groundwater composition and fluxes. Additionally, when using kilometer scale grids, low flow velocities compared to grid dimensions and subgrid source heterogeneity prevent meaningful groundwater quality representation over the century timescales used in climate change and socio-economic development scenarios.

Future hyperresolution hydrological models may enable direct numerical simulations of groundwater quality, though subsurface transport property and reactivity data could remain limiting to a model’s coverage. For short-term global groundwater quality assessments, we recommend using data-driven approaches combined with conceptual groundwater cycling models as alternatives to mechanistic methods. This work highlights the need for improved modeling frameworks to enhance global understanding of groundwater quality dynamics, critical for informed water management and sustainable use of the groundwater resource under climate and land-use change.

 

Lapworth, D., Boving, T., Brauns, B., Dottridge, J., Hynds, P., Kebede, S., Kreamer, D., Misstear, B., Mukherjee, A., Re, V., Sorensen, J., & Vargas, C. R. (2023). Groundwater quality: global challenges, emerging threats and novel approaches. Hydrogeology Journal, 31(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-022-02542-0

Maxwell, R. M., Condon, L. E., Kollet, S. J., Maher, K., Haggerty, R., & Forrester, M. M. (2016). The imprint of climate and geology on the residence times of groundwater. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(2). https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066916

 

How to cite: Teuling, F. S. R., Hofstra, N., and de Graaf, I. E. M.: Upscaling groundwater quality models to the global domain scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10209, 2025.

EGU25-11429 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.4

From rain to health risk: forecasting microbiological contamination in urban rivers using dimension reduction techniques 

Arthur Guillot - Le Goff, Yoann Cartier, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, Sebastien Boyaval, Paul Kennouche, and Rémi Carmigniani

Urban swimming has re-emerged as a popular activity, especially in France as the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games races in the Seine River marked a significant milestone in the revival of open-water swimming. Yet, maintaining water quality in urban areas poses important challenges, especially with the increasing frequency of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Indeed, heavy rainfall leads to sewer system overflow.

This study presents a framework to estimate health risks at urban bathing sites by linking rain intensity to microbial contamination. High-frequency bacteriological timeseries monitoring based on a new monitoring system were collected from the Seine River, between 2021 and 2023.  In parallel, meteorological and hydrological data were collected in the upstream urban watershed.

The timeseries dataset was split into discrete events. An event is defined as a rainfall period, possibly extended to a bacterial peak. Each event was characterised by indicators such as total rainfall, mean flow rate, maximum bacterial concentration, etc. The dimension reduction was first based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and then on a Manifold Isomap technique.

PCA confirmed correlations between rain parameters and bacterial concentrations. Then, Manifold Isomap synthesised selected rain characteristics into a single dimensionless indicator (Global Rain Parameter, GRP). A threshold effect appeared in the relationship between GRP values and bacterial peaks. Below this threshold (GRP = 1.5), no bacterial contamination is observed. Above this threshold contamination increases linearly with GRP. The method was then tested to predict water quality during the Olympic and Paralympic Games. It successfully forecasted future rain events as problematic or not and estimated periods for safe swimming conditions.

The proposed framework opens up new perspectives for the future management of the public bathing sites that will open as a legacy of the Olympic and Paralympic Games in summer 2025. Furthermore, this methodology could be adapted to a wide range of applications when it comes to forecasting surface water quality in urban areas.

How to cite: Guillot - Le Goff, A., Cartier, Y., Vinçon-Leite, B., Boyaval, S., Kennouche, P., and Carmigniani, R.: From rain to health risk: forecasting microbiological contamination in urban rivers using dimension reduction techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11429, 2025.

A MACRO-SCALE FRAMEWORK TO ANALYZE INTEGRATED NITROGEN DYNAMICS IN LARGE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS: APPLICATION TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN

 

Charles J. Vörösmarty1,2

 

1 Environmental Sciences Initiative of the CUNY Advanced Science Research Center at the Graduate Center, New York, NY (USA)

 

2 Department of Geography and Environmental Science at CUNY Hunter College, New York, NY (USA)

 

 

Global disturbance of the nitrogen cycle is driven by anthropogenic alteration to ecosystem function through increased fertilizer use for agriculture, urbanization/sewage, and destruction of natural habitat. The Mississippi River Basin/Gulf of Mexico (MRB/GoM) is among the clearest examples of such disruption, leading to deterioration of water quality and hypoxic bottom water developing each summer at the coast. Increasing flux of reactive nitrogen (N) to rivers represents significant vulnerabilities to human health, economic productivity, and ecosystem function. Climate is a major component in determining the system’s N metabolism, and extremes such as droughts and floods have been known to result in N from fertilizer lost to the atmosphere or surface/ground water, rather than incorporation into crops. This talk describes an environmental surveillance system to monitor and understand dynamics of the near contemporary N cycle across the MRB/GoM land-to-ocean continuum. The multi-institutional effort focuses on near real-time N cycle responses to 5 categories of climate events: short-term wetting/drying, rapid freeze/thaw, heatwaves, extreme precipitation/flooding, and drought. It tests the hypothesis is that the fluxes of reactive N from the Mississippi River drainage basin to the Gulf of Mexico over the recent past are determined by the conjunction of nature-based and human-engineered infrastructures associated with a relatively small fraction of the total land mass drained by the river. We address this hypothesis via six technical objectives: (1) coalesce and integrate remotely sensed and modeled geospatial data for estimation of terrestrial loading of N for ingestion by biogeochemical models, (2) apply estimation techniques (modeling, remote sensing, and in-situ data integration) for land-to-atmosphere gaseous losses and analyze the impact of climate variability, (3) create aquatic transport and processing model estimates of N flux, representing the behavior of both engineered and natural systems, (4) carry out and validate remotely sensed inland and coastal plume analysis, (5) reconfigure existing technical integration frameworks to create C-FrAMES, uniting results and workflows described under objectives 1-4, (6) engage stakeholders including through NASA mission early adopters. The discussion explains how these activities poise us to move from contemporary monitoring into forecast mode.

How to cite: Vorosmarty, C.: A Macro-Scale Framework to Analyze Integrated Nitrogen Dynamics in large Drainage Systems: Application to the Mississippi River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13459, 2025.

EGU25-15563 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.4

Future nutrient pollution increases risk to Africa’s freshwater fish biodiversity 

Maria Theresa Nakkazi, Sofia La Fuente, Katoria Lesaalon Lekarkar, Keerthana Suresh, Jodey Peyton, Arthur H.W Beusen, and Ann van Griensven

Excessive levels of nutrients, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, can trigger eutrophication leading to harmful algal blooms and oxygen depletion thus endangering freshwater fish species. Despite the widespread awareness of these risks, efforts to protect freshwater fish species remain largely ineffective, especially under climate change and other anthropogenic pressures. This study therefore identifies potential future hotspots for nutrient pollution in African river systems, specifically assessing the risk that elevated total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) levels pose to freshwater fish species. We identified areas where nutrient concentrations are likely to exceed critical thresholds, that could increase the occurrence of eutrophication and thus threatening freshwater fish biodiversity. Using two large-scale water quality models; SWAT+ and IMAGE-GNM, we analysed annual concentrations of TN and TP for 2010 and 2050 under the combined shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) combined scenario, SSP5-RCP8.5. Basing on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) target thresholds used for the assessment of SDG indicator 6.3.2 that designates a waterbody as having “good ambient water quality”, both models predicted that from 2010 to 2050, the percentage of African rivers exceeding the critical thresholds of 0.7 mg/L for TN and 0.02 mg/L for TP will increase by 15% under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario. High nutrient levels in river basins such as the Niger, Nile, and Limpopo overlap with areas of high fish species richness, posing a significant threat of exposure to nutrient pollution. At continental scale, from 2010 to 2050, the proportion of freshwater fish species at high risk from TN pollution significantly increased by 23%. In contrast, >90 % of fish species remained highly vulnerable to TP pollution throughout the 2010 and 2050 periods. Our findings highlighted regions where proactive management and policy interventions should be prioritised to mitigate the potential adverse effects of nutrient pollution on freshwater fish biodiversity.  

How to cite: Nakkazi, M. T., La Fuente, S., Lekarkar, K. L., Suresh, K., Peyton, J., H.W Beusen, A., and van Griensven, A.: Future nutrient pollution increases risk to Africa’s freshwater fish biodiversity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15563, 2025.

EGU25-15833 | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

 Multimodel Assessment of Nitrogen Pollution in European River Systems under Changing Climate and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 

Rohini Kumar, Tam V Nguyen, Arthur Beusen, Albert Nkwasa, Pia Ebeling, and Andreas Musolff

Nitrogen pollution in European landscapes poses persistent challenges to aquatic ecosystems, human health, and water quality. The European Union has set a goal to achieve zero pollution by 2050, including the reduction of air, water, and soil pollution to levels that no longer harm health or natural ecosystems. However, the feasibility of achieving this goal for legacy contaminants like nitrogen (N) under changing climate and land-use management is not well understood. This study employs a multimodel approach to provide a comprehensive assessment of nitrogen pollution across European river systems under varying climate emission and land-use management scenarios. We used a suite of hydrological and biogeochemical models (mHM-mQM, SWAT, and IMAGE-GNM) driven by an ensemble of climate projection datasets (CMIP) operating under diverse emission scenarios (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs; 1-5). These climate-driven runs were complemented with nitrogen input scenarios adhering to different SSPs, accounting for strategies managing agricultural land and technological innovations while considering future factors such as food production, economic growth, and environmental requirements. Ensemble hydrologic and nitrogen export simulations are constructed for the period spanning 1971 to 2070. Our analysis highlights notable progress in reducing nitrogen loads across European river systems by the 2050s compared to the 2010s. Regionally, our ensemble simulations identify Central Europe as a persistent area of concern, with relatively higher nitrogen exports projected under both conservative (SSP1-RCP2.6) and conventional development (SSP5-RCP8.5) scenarios. Despite overall improvements, many European river systems are projected to exceed critical nitrogen concentration thresholds (e.g., 2–3 mg N/L) by the 2050s. The majority of ensemble simulations consistently reveal similar hotspot regions in countries like Germany, France, Poland, Italy, and Spain. This may be linked to ongoing nitrogen exports that gradually deplete legacy reservoirs (e.g., soil and groundwater). By integrating multimodel insights, our study aims to provide a robust framework and assessment for anticipating and addressing the challenges of nitrogen pollution in pursuit of realizing EU zero-pollution goals.

How to cite: Kumar, R., Nguyen, T. V., Beusen, A., Nkwasa, A., Ebeling, P., and Musolff, A.:  Multimodel Assessment of Nitrogen Pollution in European River Systems under Changing Climate and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15833, 2025.

EGU25-16139 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Exploring the interplay between land use and surface water quality across Italy's watersheds 

Hung Vuong Pham, Samuele Casagrande, Olinda Rufo, and Andrea Critto

The sustainability of freshwater availability and quality is seriously threatened by climate change (CC) and land-use/land-cover change (LULC). On the other hand, extreme weather and climate-related events depend strongly on LULC. Multiple evidence suggests that rapid global development is the main driving factor altering all the fundamental processes that control the hydrologic cycle and temporal and spatial variations of river basins. Moreover, the interaction between the upstream and downstream of a basin significantly impacts the overall status of the basin. Understanding the “source-to-sink” effect is crucial for managing water quality in river basins. This study aims to understand the impacts of LULC on water quality at the river basin scale in Italy, providing a baseline model for predicting the probability of achieving good ecological status for each watershed under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP2 and SSP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for mid- and long-term timeframe (i.e., 2050 and 2100). To fulfill this bold objective, this study integrates Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and several regression models to explore the influence of various landscape metrics on the ecological status of each watershed, taking into account the effect of changes in land use from upstream watersheds to downstream ones. The outcomes reveal that conserving natural areas is essential for improving water quality across the territory. However, conservation efforts alone are insufficient without restoring places that were natural previously but are now used for agriculture and urban development. Implementing agricultural practices that promote harmony and links between natural regions and farmed areas may effectively reduce the harm from unsustainable farming practices. Future work will focus on integrating climate change variables and spatio-temporal occurrence of extreme events, such as flood and drought hotspots. Moreover, advanced probabilistic models (e.g., Bayesian Network) and Machine Learning will be employed to assess the possible interactions between LULC and CC and their impacts on water quality. The outcomes of this analysis contribute to developing adaptive strategies that safeguard water resources and ensure the long-term sustainability of freshwater ecosystems.

How to cite: Pham, H. V., Casagrande, S., Rufo, O., and Critto, A.: Exploring the interplay between land use and surface water quality across Italy's watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16139, 2025.

EGU25-16246 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Spatial Bayesian Network model for assessing the impact of land use and climate change on water quality in Italian watersheds. 

Olinda Jack Mariano Rufo, Samuele Casagrande, Vuong Pham, and Andrea Critto

Climate and land-use changes are posing increasing threats to freshwater-related ecosystem services, acting both on the supply and demand sides. These changes disrupt critical processes such as nutrient cycling, sediment transport, and water flow regulation, leading to declining water quality and reduced ecosystem resilience. There is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the dynamics of these threats, which can help enhance water management, environmental protection, and human well-being. To effectively tackle these risks, it is essential to quantitatively combine physical hazards and vulnerabilities by pinpointing hotspots where multiple stressors greatly increase the risk of water quality degradation. In response to this challenge, Bayesian network models offer a promising decision-support tool for evaluating adaptation options for water resource management, as they can integrate both quantitative and qualitative data. Building upon this approach, we developed a Spatial Bayesian Network (SBN) model to predict the probability of potential risks to water quality at the river basin scale in Italy and support the goal of achieving good chemical and ecological status according to the Water Framework Directive. This integrated model incorporates the complex relationships between land use change, climate change indicators (e.g., flood and drought intensity), and their combined impacts on water degradation. First, the baseline model uses historical patterns of climate change metrics from the CMCC DSS dataset and land use indicators from the Corine Land Cover as inputs to generate probabilistic predictions of potential risks to water quality. Then, the relationships between these variables are captured in their conditional probabilities, allowing for quantifying interactions and identifying key stressors, paving the way for scenario analysis. Finally, different future scenarios will be developed to predict the changes in water quality, considering projected climate data and socio-economic conditions. The outcome of this analysis contributes to developing an integrated management strategy that will help water managers make decisions and ultimately improve the resilience of freshwater ecosystems while supporting the implementation of adaptation strategies to address such problems.

Keywords: Water Framework Directive, Water quality, Climate change, Land-use/ land-cover change Bayesian Network (BN) model

How to cite: Rufo, O. J. M., Casagrande, S., Pham, V., and Critto, A.: Spatial Bayesian Network model for assessing the impact of land use and climate change on water quality in Italian watersheds., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16246, 2025.

EGU25-18259 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Application of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) for Catchment Water Quality Management in Yala River Basin, Western Kenya. 

Ernest Ronoh, Annika Annika Schlemm, Erasto Benedict Mkama, Douglas Nyolei, John Nyongesa, Maurice Nyadawa, and Ann van Griensven

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged as innovative and sustainable approaches to address environmental challenges, including water quality degradation in river catchments. These solutions leverage natural processes and ecosystems to enhance water quality while providing co-benefits such as biodiversity conservation and climate resilience. The Yala River Basin in Kenya faces significant water quality challenges due to increased sediment yields and nutrient loading, primarily driven by agricultural activities, deforestation, and land-use changes. This study explores the application of NbS, such as riparian buffer strips, agroforestry, and wetland restoration, in mitigating water quality issues in the Yala Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) was employed to model the impacts of NbS on water quality in the Yala Basin. SWAT+ is a robust, process-based hydrological model that simulates land use, climate, and management interventions at the catchment scale. Climate data from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) were used to provide high-resolution projections of climate variability and change. Baseline land-use data were derived from remote sensing and validated using ground surveys. Hydrological response units (HRUs) were defined to capture spatial heterogeneity in land cover, soil, and topography. Scenarios with and without NbS interventions were simulated to assess their impact on sediment and nutrient yields.

Preliminary results indicate that the implementation of NbS significantly reduces sediment yields and nutrient concentrations in the Yala Basin. Specifically, hydrological response units with NbS interventions demonstrated: Reduced sediment yields: Areas with riparian buffer strips and restored wetlands showed up to a 15% reduction in sediment transport compared to baseline scenarios. Decreased nutrient loads: Agroforestry practices and vegetation buffers reduced nitrogen and phosphorus runoff by approximately 4% and 7%, respectively. These reductions were particularly pronounced during peak rainfall events, demonstrating the effectiveness of NbS in mitigating runoff-related pollution.

The application of NbS in the Yala Basin demonstrates their potential to significantly improve catchment water quality while delivering ancillary ecosystem services. SWAT+ modeling highlights the ability of NbS to address sediment and nutrient-related challenges effectively, even under varying climatic conditions. These solutions not only provide immediate water quality benefits but also contribute to long-term catchment resilience to climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Based on the findings, it is recommended that policymakers and stakeholders prioritize the integration of NbS in catchment management plans. Key recommendations include: Scaling up riparian buffer zones and agroforestry systems in critical hydrological response units. Establishing incentive programs for local communities to adopt NbS practices. Enhancing monitoring and evaluation frameworks to measure the long-term impacts of NbS on water quality. Strengthening partnerships between government agencies, research institutions, and community organizations to promote the co-design and implementation of NbS.

How to cite: Ronoh, E., Annika Schlemm, A., Benedict Mkama, E., Nyolei, D., Nyongesa, J., Nyadawa, M., and van Griensven, A.: Application of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) for Catchment Water Quality Management in Yala River Basin, Western Kenya., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18259, 2025.

EGU25-19277 | Orals | HS2.3.4 | Highlight

Nutrients in European waters in 2050 

Bruna Grizzetti, Angel Udias, Olga Vigiak, Alberto Pistocchi, Faycal Bouraoui, Francesco Galimberti, Alberto Aloe, Michela Zanni, Matteo Zampieri, Chiara Piroddi, and Diego Macias

In Europe, despite advanced environmental legislation, excessive nutrient pollution from intense agriculture and high population density compromises water quality, affecting both human and ecosystem needs. Climate change, extreme weather events, and socio-economic developments will continue to impact the delivery of nutrients to freshwaters and marine waters. To anticipate risks and identify effective strategies for increasing water resilience, it is essential to understand the combined impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water quality and quantity.

Using scenario modeling, we project changes in nitrogen and phosphorus water quality out to 2050, accounting for the expected effects of EU environmental policies and climate variability. We employ a source-to-sea approach, examining the impacts on both freshwater and coastal/marine waters. We conduct regional-specific analyses, examining the relationships between freshwater quality and ecological conditions, as well as potential risks for eutrophication in coastal waters. By linking sources to impacts, our scenario analysis identifies the nutrient reductions needed to achieve water quality objectives for both freshwater and marine waters, ensuring future water security by considering both water quality and quantity.

This study provides insights into the nutrient reductions required to meet environmental policy objectives in European fresh and coastal waters under future climate, informing strategies for sustainable water management.

How to cite: Grizzetti, B., Udias, A., Vigiak, O., Pistocchi, A., Bouraoui, F., Galimberti, F., Aloe, A., Zanni, M., Zampieri, M., Piroddi, C., and Macias, D.: Nutrients in European waters in 2050, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19277, 2025.

EGU25-19580 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.4

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Catchment Water Quality in Yala River Catchment, Western Kenya. 

Samwel Olala, Ernest Kiplangat Ronoh, Erasto Benedict Mukama, Katoria Lesaalon Lekarkar, Albert Nkwasa, Douglas Nyolei, John Maina Nyongesa, Maurice Nyadawa, and Ann van Griensven

Climate change poses significant challenges to water quality in river catchments globally, particularly in regions heavily dependent on natural water systems for agriculture, domestic use, and biodiversity conservation. The Yala River Catchment in Western Kenya, a critical water resource in the region, is increasingly threatened by climate variability and its associated impacts. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns exacerbate sediment transport, nutrient runoff, and overall water quality degradation. This study evaluates the long-term impacts of climate change on water quality in the Yala Catchment, providing insights to support adaptive management strategies. The study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), a process-based hydrological model, to simulate climate change impacts on the Yala River Catchment. Climate projections from ISIMIP3b (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) were used to drive the model, capturing changes in temperature and precipitation for the period 2030 to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated using historical climate and hydrological data. Simulations were run to assess baseline water quality conditions and future scenarios, focusing on key indicators such as sediment yield, nutrient runoff, and surface water quality under varying climate conditions.

Preliminary findings reveal significant climate-driven changes in the Yala River Catchment: Increased temperatures and rainfall: Projections indicate an average temperature rise of 2–3°C and an increase in extreme rainfall events, particularly during the wet season. Enhanced sediment and nutrient runoff: Higher rainfall intensity and frequency contribute to elevated soil erosion and nutrient transport, particularly in agricultural areas and steep terrains. Decline in water quality: Increased sediment and nutrient loads lead to reduced water clarity and heightened concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus, posing risks to aquatic ecosystems and water usability.

The results demonstrate that climate change will exacerbate water quality challenges in the Yala River Catchment, driven by increased sediment and nutrient fluxes from intensified rainfall and rising temperatures. These impacts highlight the need for urgent, adaptive management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability and ensure the sustainability of water resources.

To address the projected impacts of climate change on water quality in the Yala River Catchment, the following actions are recommended: Implement sustainable land and water management practices to reduce sediment and nutrient runoff, such as riparian buffer zones and conservation agriculture. Develop and enforce climate-adaptive policies for catchment management that incorporate long-term climate projections. Enhance monitoring systems to provide real-time data on water quality and climate trends for proactive decision-making. Foster community engagement and capacity-building programs to encourage adoption of climate-resilient practices.

How to cite: Olala, S., Kiplangat Ronoh, E., Benedict Mukama, E., Lesaalon Lekarkar, K., Nkwasa, A., Nyolei, D., Maina Nyongesa, J., Nyadawa, M., and van Griensven, A.: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Catchment Water Quality in Yala River Catchment, Western Kenya., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19580, 2025.

EGU25-1461 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.5

Emissions and transport of pharmaceutical residues from three wastewater treatment plants in Saudi Arabia and the associated risk for the aquatic environment 

Obaid A. Alharbi, Edward Jarvis, Aikaterini Galani, Nikolaos S. Thomaidis, Maria-Christina Nika, and Deborah V. Chapman

Pharmaceuticals are inadequately removed by wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), allowing their residues to contaminate the environment and pose potential risks. This study investigates the occurrence, removal efficiency, and environmental risks of 16 pharmaceuticals in three WWTPs in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Seasonal variations and the leaching behavior of these compounds when wastewater is applied to soil were also examined using laboratory soil column experiments.

A total of 144 wastewater samples over 12 months and 80 soil column samples were collected and analyzed. Wastewater samples were processed using solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), while soil samples were analyzed using ultrasound-assisted extraction (UAE) with LC-MS/MS. Of the 16 pharmaceuticals, 10 were detected in WWTP influents and 5 in effluents. Caffeine and acetaminophen were the most abundant (>1000 µg/L), followed by ciprofloxacin, metformin, and others (<1000 µg/L). Baclofen, reported for the first time in the environment, was detected in influents at 0.33–2.82 µg/L. Larger WWTPs (H and M) showed higher pharmaceutical levels than the smaller plant (KSU). Effluent concentrations for the 5 detected compounds did not exceed 34 µg/L.

Pharmaceutical concentrations exhibited seasonal variations, particularly in influents during autumn and winter. Mass loadings in larger WWTPs were significantly higher than in the smaller plant (p ≤ 0.5). Average removal efficiencies for pharmaceuticals exceeded 70%, with caffeine and acetaminophen almost completely removed (99%). Baclofen showed a removal efficiency of 81–97%, correlating with ambient air temperature but only weakly with TSS removal. Removal rates were consistent across WWTPs, despite differences in tertiary treatment processes.

Environmental risk assessments revealed high to moderate risks for most detected compounds, particularly antibiotics like ofloxacin. Effluents also posed ecological risks, highlighting the need for better management of pharmaceutical discharges to reduce environmental impacts.

Soil column experiments showed most pharmaceuticals had a high affinity for soil particles, accumulating in the top 5 cm and not migrating to groundwater, except for trace levels of caffeine and cephalexin in leachate. This suggests limited groundwater contamination potential under natural conditions.

This research provides critical insights into the occurrence, behavior, and risks of pharmaceuticals in Saudi Arabia, emphasizing the urgent need for regulations on wastewater quality and emerging contaminants. By identifying key risks and removal inefficiencies, the study supports efforts to minimize pharmaceutical pollution and protect environment and human health.

How to cite: Alharbi, O. A., Jarvis, E., Galani, A., Thomaidis, N. S., Nika, M.-C., and Chapman, D. V.: Emissions and transport of pharmaceutical residues from three wastewater treatment plants in Saudi Arabia and the associated risk for the aquatic environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1461, 2025.

EGU25-1578 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Estimating high resolution exposure of an agriculturally dominated catchment with DAD-drift model and SWAT+ 

Mike Fuchs, Sebastian Gebler, and Andreas Lorke

Modeling environmental concentrations of plant protection products typically includes runoff, drainage, and leaching processes, which are well represented in recent landscape scale modeling approaches. However, the modeling of spray drift at the landscape scale is challenging and often simplified or neglected due to high computational efforts. For example, spray drift is often implemented by external calculation of drift curves with the pesticide load added directly to the channel network. Although this approach enables in general a basic landscape-level spray drift estimation, it lacks the spatio-temporal details such as the distribution of drift in relation to other landscape elements (e.g., water bodies, non-target areas). To address these limitations, we developed the Droplet and Atmospheric Dispersion drift (DAD-drift) model which integrates mechanistic droplet model, a micrometeorological model, and a three-dimensional Gaussian puff model designed for ground application. DAD-drift considers the physical principles of spray drift, the spatial relationship between application areas and to non-target areas, as well as local weather conditions at the landscape scale. Its modular design allows for easy integration with other models.

We combined, a high-resolution SWAT+ model of an agriculturally dominated catchment in Germany with DAD-drift to enhance our understanding of pesticide transport pathways and to assess the different exposure routes of plant protection products. Flow observation data are used for hard calibration, supported by additional soft calibration data (i.e., evaporation, surface runoff, subsurface drainage, groundwater recharge, total runoff). Agricultural practices, i.e. crop rotations with catch crops, tillage operations, and plant protection product application timing are adopted from a 5-year data set from 2019 to 2023. Results indicated that transport via spray drift is significant for exposure at the landscape scale, with the dominant transport pathway varying considerably based on individual substance properties and application timing.

The model setup can be used to identify critical source areas and to optimize the application of plant protection products. In addition, the effectiveness of risk mitigation practices, such as drift reduction nozzles and no-spray buffer strips, can be assessed. Furthermore, linking the exposure dynamics predicted by the SWAT+ model with effect modeling approaches is feasible.

How to cite: Fuchs, M., Gebler, S., and Lorke, A.: Estimating high resolution exposure of an agriculturally dominated catchment with DAD-drift model and SWAT+, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1578, 2025.

EGU25-3472 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Valorization of agricultural residues through their transformation into sustainable filters for water treatment 

Águeda M. Sánchez-Martín, Sara Pérez Dalí, Tomás Undabeytia López, Jorge Marquez Moreno, Alba Dieguez-Alonso, Frank Behrendt, Hernán Almuiña-Villar, Ramón Murillo, Paloma Campos, and José María De la Rosa

The sustainable management of escalating volumes of organic waste, alongside the mitigation of air, soil, and water pollution, presents a critical global environmental challenge. Agriculture plays a pivotal role in addressing these issues. Within this context, the current study investigates the valorisation of abundant agricultural by-products by transforming them into activated carbon (AC), a versatile material for remediating water contaminated with both organic and inorganic pollutants.

Rice husks (RH) and almond shells (AS) were selected as feedstock owing to their availability and transformative potential. They underwent pyrolysis and subsequently activated using chemical (potassium hydroxide, KOH) and physical (water vapour) methods to enhance their adsorption properties. The characterisation of these materials revealed favourable physicochemical properties, including an alkaline pH, substantial water retention capacity, high carbon content, and an elevated iodine adsorption index. Physical activation of pyrolysed RH significantly increased the specific surface area (SSA-BET), achieving values up to 600 m²/g.

The efficacy of the derived ACs was assessed through adsorption experiments targeting pharmaceutical contaminants, specifically anti-inflammatory drugs and antibiotics. ACs derived from RH achieved complete removal (up to 100%) of these persistent pollutants, performing comparably to commercial activated carbons. Furthermore, the study explored the adsorption of heavy metals, confirming the efficacy of these materials in sequestering inorganic pollutants from aqueous systems. These findings highlight the potential of agricultural waste-derived ACs for dual-purpose applications in treating both organic and inorganic contaminants in wastewater.

Acknowledgements:

This study received financial support in the framework of the Project RICERES4CHANGE (grant TED2021-130964B-I00), by the Spanish Ministry of Science, the Spanish Agency of Research (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and the European Union (Next Generation EU/PRTR funding). A. Sánchez-Martín thanks The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICIN) for her contract as Technical Support Personnel (PTA2021-020000-I). M. Arenas and Sergio Gómez are thanked for this technical and analytical support.

How to cite: Sánchez-Martín, Á. M., Pérez Dalí, S., Undabeytia López, T., Marquez Moreno, J., Dieguez-Alonso, A., Behrendt, F., Almuiña-Villar, H., Murillo, R., Campos, P., and De la Rosa, J. M.: Valorization of agricultural residues through their transformation into sustainable filters for water treatment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3472, 2025.

EGU25-4389 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Addressing Microplastic Monitoring Challenges in Drinking Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: Towards Standardization and Capacity Building 

Mohammad Alqadi, Gabor Bordos, Bence Prikler, Saša Milanović, Ljiljana Vasić, Branislav Petrović, Ana Selak, Ivana Boljat, Jasmina Lukač Reberski, Mihael Brenčič, Anja Torkar, Ines Vidmar, Mateja Jelovčan, and Gabriele Chiogna

The presence of microplastics in drinking water has become an issue of growing concern, and there is a need for reliable and standardized methods to monitor their presence and impact. In the Danube River Basin (DRB), different countries employ a variety of instruments and approaches to deal with this challenge. Techniques such as FTIR and Raman spectroscopy are among the most commonly used due to their ability to provide detailed analysis and identification of plastic polymers. However, these methods come with drawbacks, including high costs, the need for specialized training, and their time-intensive nature. Other techniques, such as Py-GCMS and SEM, are also utilized, but their availability and application largely depend on the resources and priorities of each country.
 A critical issue is the lack of standardization in monitoring microplastic across the region, while some countries possess modern, state-of-the-art equipment and , experienced laboratories, others are still in the process of building their capacity. Moreover, EU countries have to comply to the directive, while non-EU countries have no strict legislative framework. Comparing the results of microplastic detection is thus challenging at the regional scale and meaningful conclusions are hard to be drawn. For this reason, there's a strong drive toward standardized protocols that could get everyone on the same page, right from sample collection to sample preparation and analysis. However, the challenge extends beyond standardization of monitoring processes. 
The more complex issue is how to bridge the gap between the nations with highly developed possibilities and countries which are just developing these capabilities. Collaboration is the keyword: share expertise, invest in training, and develop cheaper technologies. In the MicroDrink project, we developed the MicroDrink Knowledge Base (https://microdrink.wordpress.com/) which is an online open-access database providing comprehensive information on the existing sampling methods, analytical instruments, laboratory techniques, previous and ongoing projects, relevant legislation, guidelines, and laboratories offering microplastic analysis in the Danube region.

How to cite: Alqadi, M., Bordos, G., Prikler, B., Milanović, S., Vasić, L., Petrović, B., Selak, A., Boljat, I., Lukač Reberski, J., Brenčič, M., Torkar, A., Vidmar, I., Jelovčan, M., and Chiogna, G.: Addressing Microplastic Monitoring Challenges in Drinking Water Resources in the Danube River Basin: Towards Standardization and Capacity Building, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4389, 2025.

EGU25-5896 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.5

Monitoring of micropollutants in rivers: Are national sampling strategies applied in the EU fit for purpose? 

Nikolaus Weber, Jounes Lutterbach, Christine Hufnagl, Steffen Kittlaus, Ernis Saracevic, Katarina Kozlica, Radmila Milačič Ščančar, Jörg Krampe, Matthias Zessner, and Ottavia Zoboli

Monitoring the quality of water resources is the basis for protecting the environmental and human health from the adverse effects of diffuse and point source pollution. Organic and inorganic trace substances, also known as micropollutants, usually occur in surface waters in very low concentrations (nanograms or micrograms per litre). These very low concentrations require considerable analytical and therefore financial effort for monitoring. This limits the number of samples that can be analysed in monitoring programmes. In addition, the micropollutants relevant to water bodies belong to different groups, which differ in terms of their sources, emission pathways, transport dynamics and environmental behaviour in the catchments and rivers. Such complexity and variability pose significant challenges to effective monitoring. With the proposed extension of the EU Priority Substances List in 2022, the monitoring of micropollutants will become a higher priority, and therefore an accurate reflection of the situation in the river is crucial for effective monitoring of the quality of the EU's water resources. To address these challenges and provide a solid basis for future monitoring programs, a study was conducted to investigate the mean and maximum concentrations and annual loads observed in water bodies during a one-year water body monitoring programme and how these differ if different strategies for sampling are used.

A one-year programme applying three sampling methods, was implemented in parallel at two sites in the catchment of the Wulka river in Austria. Both monitoring sites are characterised by an agricultural catchment area, but only one is heavily influenced by discharges from urban wastewater treatment plants. Grab samples were taken every 14 days, while integrated composite samples were collected continuously over a 14-day period using two parallel-operated automated cooled samplers. These integrated composite samples utilized both time-paced (CTCV) and flow-paced (VTCV) sampling techniques. Four groups of trace contaminants were selected to represent different emission and transport dynamics in river catchments: trace metals (total and dissolved), pharmaceuticals, per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and pesticides.

For substances that are predominantly discharged continuously, such as widely used pharmaceuticals or dissolved metals, an initial assessment of the annual average concentrations can be made using twelve grab samples without major systematic deviations. Composite sampling methods, such as CTCV and VTCV, are advantageous in the case of temporal variability of emissions and riverine concentrations. Seasonal substances such as pesticides require special monitoring through extended composite sampling. Substances emitted during specific events (e.g. some pesticides, some PFAS, total metals) are difficult to record using grab samples. Composite sampling methods offer significant advantages by integrating samples during discharge-driven pollution events. An alternative approach is to grab samples specifically during such events using stratified sampling. If substances are emitted via pulses for only a short period of time (in this case study, this is likely to be the case for the insecticide lindane), these substances may not be detected at all by grab sampling. In such cases, the use of composite samples is necessary to ensure detection.

How to cite: Weber, N., Lutterbach, J., Hufnagl, C., Kittlaus, S., Saracevic, E., Kozlica, K., Milačič Ščančar, R., Krampe, J., Zessner, M., and Zoboli, O.: Monitoring of micropollutants in rivers: Are national sampling strategies applied in the EU fit for purpose?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5896, 2025.

Recovering valuable water contaminants is a cornerstone of sustainable water management, addressing environmental challenges, and resource scarcity, and promoting sustainable resource management and circular economy principles. Among various techniques for contaminant sequestration and recovery, sorption-desorption methods stand out for their operational simplicity, cost-effectiveness, and high efficiency, while minimising harmful by-products during both removal and recovery processes. While sorption processes have been extensively studied, desorption dynamics remain underexplored despite their importance in recovering and recycling commercially valuable substances. Traditionally, dynamic sorption-desorption processes are studied using column experiments with effluent and solid surface analysis, nevertheless, these methods fail to spot pore-scale solid-fluid interactions. Moreover, studying pore-scale interfacial processes in soil is challenging due to the opacity and heterogeneity of soil environments. Overcoming these challenges demands innovative, multidisciplinary approaches to visualize and analyse these processes.

To advance the understanding of pore-scale desorption dynamics, this study introduces an innovative microfluidic approach for investigating contaminant desorption in clay-rich porous media. Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microfluidic channels were functionalised with transparent clay coatings to replicate the physicochemical properties of natural clay-rich soil environments. These clay-coated channels represent the complex, multi-scale, tortuous pore networks characteristic of heterogeneous clay-rich systems. However, creating stable coatings that endure flow conditions, replicate geomaterial properties, and enable pore-scale visualisation remains challenging. To address this, we proposed a solvent-free powder coating method combined with plasma and heat treatments, followed by the injection of a water-based solution to form a porous network of clay aggregates. This coating strategy supports the direct visualisation of fluid-solid interactions at pore scale under varying flow conditions, providing unique insights into contaminant recovery dynamics.

The proposed coating protocol effectively creates stable clay coatings on PDMS substrates under various flow conditions, ensuring reliable and reproducible observations for dynamic flow experiments. Flow and tracer experiments were conducted across a range of pore geometries and flow rates, which reveal the influence of the microscale flow attributes on desorption processes across various flow dynamics and porous geometries. The results demonstrate that desorption behaviour is intricately influenced by the interplay of flow dynamics and pore geometry. Higher flow rates were found to accelerate contaminant desorption, significantly reducing the time required for recovery, but often leaving higher residual contaminant concentrations. Therefore, increasing the flow rates does not always enhance recovery efficiency, as residual contaminant concentrations often remain higher under high flow rate conditions. Conversely, lower flow rates, though slower in achieving complete desorption, were found to result in a lower residual contaminant mass. These findings highlight a critical trade-off between recovery speed and total contaminant removal, thus indicating the importance of optimising flow conditions to balance recovery process efficiency and environmental footprint.

The insights gained hold significant potential for designing reactive porous filters with precise flow control, enabling more effective and sustainable remediation strategies, particularly for emerging contaminants like pharmaceuticals, heavy metals, and persistent pollutants. By optimising flow conditions and understanding the role of porous media characteristics, this research advances efficient contaminant recovery systems aligned with sustainable management and circular economy goals, promoting resource recovery and reuse from contaminated water.

How to cite: Razaghi, N.: Visualisation of Multi-Scale Desorption Dynamics in Clay-Coated Microfluidic Channels: Optimising Recovery Strategies for Valuable Contaminants, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7416, 2025.

EGU25-8354 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.5

Non-target analysis of grab and passive samples from drainage water of a plastic greenhouse district in southern Italy 

Daniele la Cecilia, Jacopo Giorgi, Silvia Pettenuzzo, Sara Bogialli, Davide Maino, Matteo Camporese, and Marco Roverso

The number of agricultural catchments covered by plastic greenhouses is growing worldwide. Greenhouses inherently modify the hydrological processes driving the typical contamination flow paths of open field agriculture. Studies investigating the impacts of greenhouses on surface water quality of small catchments with mixed land use are just emerging. In this study, we focused on a plastic greenhouse district in southern Italy of about 10 km2, mainly used to produce leafy vegetables. There, we collected grab samples and time-integrated passive samples every two weeks for one year, upstream and downstream of the district. In order to gain a broad knowledge of the impacts of anthropogenic activities on water quality, we performed a non-targeted screening on the samples analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry.

We found that time-integrated samples are generally richer in detected and identified chemical features than grab samples. On the other hand, grab sampling was more accurate from a quantitative perspective. This highlighted a relevant tradeoff between the two sampling strategies.

Furthermore, we found that the number and the concentration of contaminants, i.e., pesticides and some pharmaceuticals, typically decreased from upstream to downstream. This suggested that contaminants were already present in the incoming water and emphasized the lack of relevant contamination sources from the greenhouse district to the drainage network.

Water quality issues at the upstream site in the summer period, revealed by the non-targeted screening, were putatively attributed to an undiscovered leakage of untreated urban wastewater. The leakage was also supported by an increase in inorganic phosphate concentration from 1 mg/L to 10 mg/L at the upstream location, and eventually confirmed by independent chemical analyses of sea and river water carried out by the regional environmental protection agency.

This study represents the first exploratory campaign to assess the quality of drainage water in the selected greenhouse district, highlighting that the local horticultural greenhouse production does not impact water safety. In this light, drainage can be stored and safely reused in agriculture at the condition that untreated wastewater is promptly detected and diverted. Follow-up studies shall focus on the quality of leachates and groundwater.

How to cite: la Cecilia, D., Giorgi, J., Pettenuzzo, S., Bogialli, S., Maino, D., Camporese, M., and Roverso, M.: Non-target analysis of grab and passive samples from drainage water of a plastic greenhouse district in southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8354, 2025.

EGU25-8422 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Seamless forward assessment of toxic risks in river networks for mixtures of chemicals originating from wastewater treatment plant effluents 

Olaf Büttner, Saskia Finckh, Dietrich Borchardt, Werner Brack, and Wibke Busch

Chemicals in the aquatic environment can be harmful to biota and may cause toxic risks to the aquatic ecosystems. A high number of these chemicals originate from point sources (households, manufacturing and industries). A subset of the substances is permanently released and the load is proportional to the number of people connected to wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), while other substances show higher variable emission patterns. Especially at low discharges of the receiving waters  the toxic risk may increase due to reduced dilution.

We test the hypothesis that the accumulated urban discharge fraction (UDF) in a river network is a robust proxy for the toxic risk induced by discharged chemicals from point sources.

To prove this hypothesis we combined available catchment data like stream network organisation and spatially related WWTPs, the amount of wastewater and discharge data as well as data from a European reference mixture data set containing concentrations of chemicals regularly found  in European wastewater treatment plant effluents (Beckers et al. 2023). Based on these data we calculated mixing concentrations and toxic units for 80 chemicals, among them pesticides, biocides and pharmaceuticals, besides other typical wastewater-related compounds, such as sweeteners and corrosion inhibitors.

Measured data (WFD, 2015 - 2021) at 87 stations in the Federal State of Thuringia (Germany) were compared with the modelled concentrations and showed highly significant correlations for pharmaceuticals and no correlation with pesticides. We conclude, that our modelling approach using UDF as a proxy supports the identification of different sources of compounds occurring jointly as mixtures in aquatic systems and by this supports a source oriented pollution and risk management.

References

Beckers, L.-M., Altenburger, R., Brack, W., Escher, B.I., Hackermüller, J., Hassold, E., Illing, G., Krauss, M., Krüger, J., Michaelis, P., Schüttler, A., Stevens, S. and Busch, W. (2023) 'A data-derived reference mixture representative of European wastewater treatment plant effluents to complement mixture assessment', Environment International, 179, 108155, available: http://dx.doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.108155.

How to cite: Büttner, O., Finckh, S., Borchardt, D., Brack, W., and Busch, W.: Seamless forward assessment of toxic risks in river networks for mixtures of chemicals originating from wastewater treatment plant effluents, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8422, 2025.

Addressing pharmaceutical contamination in urban wastewater involves more than enhancing wastewater treatment plant operations. Addressing contamination at its source remains the gold standard in environmental remediation, enabling more efficient and targeted mitigation efforts [1]. Effective management of risks associated with transformation by-products requires interventions at the contamination source, alongside innovative applications of adsorption technology within a circular economy framework [2]. This study aims to fill gaps in the literature by exploring the potential of desorbing and recovering adsorbates, specifically focusing on granular activated carbon's adsorption of two commonly used iodinated contrast media (ICMs): the non-ionic iopamidol (IOP) and the ionic diatrizoate (DTA), essential pharmaceuticals of environmental significance as contaminants of emerging concern [3]. Our methodology includes initial adsorption onto granular activated carbon followed by separation and extraction of the pharmaceuticals from the spent adsorbent material. We employ a combination of physical and chemical techniques to enhance removal and recovery processes, ultimately developing a robust extraction protocol for these contrast agents. To ensure practical relevance, experiments were conducted using both ultrapure water solutions of pure ICM and a laboratory-simulated artificial urine matrix. The artificial urine matrix represents a more complex and realistic aqueous environment, aiming to simulate scenarios where ICMs are extracted from patients' urine post-imaging procedures. From this complex matrix, upwards of 83.14 ±8.46% pharmaceutical recovery could be achieved with the best available methods.

[1]     F. Russo, L. Nemer, M. Martuzzi e F. Zambon, «Keeping our water clean: the case of water contamination in the Veneto Region, Italy,» World Health Organization, Copenhagen, DK, 2017.
[2]     S. E. Duirk, C. Lindell, C. C. Cornelison, J. L. Kormos, T. A. Ternes, M. Attene-Ramos, J. Osiol, E. D. Wagner, M. J. Plewa e S. D. Richardson, «Formation of Toxic Iodinated Disinfection By-Products from Compounds Used in Medical Imaging,» Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 45, pp. 6845-6854, 2011. 
[3]     A. Sengar e A. Vijayanandan, «Comprehensive review on iodinated X-ray contrast media: Complete fate, occurrence, and formation of disinfection byproducts,» Science of the Total Environment, vol. 769, 2021.

How to cite: Seccia, S.: A Circular Economy Strategy for Mitigating Pharmaceutical Contamination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9021, 2025.

EGU25-10736 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.5

Integrated Simulation of Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds in the Athabasca River Basin 

Qianyang Wang, Maricor Arlos, Jinqiang Wang, and Keegan Hicks

The environmental risks posed by polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) associated with increasing oil and mineral mining activities have become a major concern in Alberta. Due to their diversity and complex behavior, basin-scale surface water PACs simulation based on traditional modeling tools is restricted, thereby hindering decision-making. To address this, we designed an integrated simulation framework that combines predictive relationships among PACs with mechanism-based models and implemented it in the Athabasca River basin (ARB) in Alberta. The predictive relationships were obtained through a preliminary analysis based on principal component analysis, clustering, and regression. For mechanism-based simulation, a Python-based Soil Water Assessment Tool-Load Calculator (SWAT-LC) was developed and coupled with SWAT and the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program 8 (WASP8) to describe the fate and transport of PACs in both the terrestrial and aquatic systems. Our results show that: 1) Out of 76 PACs studied, two clusters were identified, including one with 66 PACs exhibiting seasonal patterns, and another with 10 PACs marked by significant uncertainties. Chrysene and naphthalene were chosen from the respective cluster as representatives for mechanism-based modeling; 2) The established mechanism-based model demonstrated overall acceptable to satisfactory performance for chrysene at different sites (NSE=-0.28~0.33, d=0.34~0.71, PBIAS=0.09%~36.68%), although was less successful in describing the fluctuations of naphthalene; 3) Evidence indicates that seasonalities in PACs are petrogenic and are mainly driven by soil-water processes, while surface wash-off in the oil sands region and wet depositions lead to concentration spikes in river water; 4) The predictive relationships of the other 74 PACs are robust along the Athabasca River mainstem, showing great potential for facilitating rapid decision-making in the future.

How to cite: Wang, Q., Arlos, M., Wang, J., and Hicks, K.: Integrated Simulation of Polycyclic Aromatic Compounds in the Athabasca River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10736, 2025.

This study investigates removal of iodinated contrast media (ICMs) agents from water using modified clay materials. ICMs pose a significant environmental challenge due to their high stability and resistance to conventional treatment methods. Their global annual consumption exceeds 12 × 106 kg and are characterized by near-complete excretion within 24 hours of medical administration [1,2]. Recent advances in surfactant-modified organoclays have demonstrated their exceptional potential as sustainable remediation materials for emerging contaminants, including per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), antibiotic compounds, and other persistent organic pollutants [3,4]. No such study has investigated their applicability for the removal of ICMs. Here, we synthesized and investigated three montmorillonite-based adsorbents: pristine montmorillonite (Mt), single-modified montmorillonite functionalized with cationic surfactant cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (Mt-CTAC), and dual-modified montmorillonite incorporating both cetyltrimethylammonium chloride and anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate surfactants (Mt-CTAC/SDS). Batch adsorption experiments using Iohexol as a model ICM compound demonstrates superior removal efficiency for Mt-CTAC/SDS as compared to unmodified Mt and single-modified Mt-CTAC across various concentrations (5-150 mg/L). The dual-modified clay shows enhanced adsorption capacity, removal efficiencies reaching up to 90% under optimal conditions. Fixed-bed column studies are conducted using Mt-CTAC/SDS at different clay-to-sand ratios (0.05:1, 0.1:1, and 0.3:1), investigating the effects of flow rate (0.1-2.5 mL/min) and initial ICM concentration on solute breakthrough behavior. The ensuing breakthrough curves show that increasing clay content in the composite improves removal capacity, higher flow rates consistently leading to earlier breakthrough. Our findings highlight the potential of dual-modified montmorillonite as an effective adsorbent for ICM removal from water systems, providing insights for scaling up this treatment approach in environmental remediation applications.

References:

  • Sengar, A., Vijayanandan, A., 2021. Comprehensive review on iodinated X-ray contrast media: Complete fate, occurrence, and formation of disinfection byproducts. Science of the total environment 769, 144846.
  • Dekker, H.M., Stroomberg, G.J., Prokop, M., 2022. Tackling the increasing contamination of the water supply by iodinated contrast media. Insights into Imaging 13, 30.
  • Biswas, B., Warr, L.N., Hilder, E.F., Goswami, N., Rahman, M.M., Churchman, J.G., Vasilev, K., Pan, G. and Naidu, R., 2019. Biocompatible functionalisation of nanoclays for improved environmental remediation. Chemical Society Reviews, 48(14), pp.3740-3770.
  • Chen, B., Evans, J.R., Greenwell, H.C., Boulet, P., Coveney, P.V., Bowden, A.A. and Whiting, A., 2008. A critical appraisal of polymer–clay nanocomposites. Chemical Society Reviews, 37(3), pp.568-594.

How to cite: Khan, A. U.: Removal of Iodinated Contrast Media Using Surfactant-Modified Montmorillonite Clay: Batch and Column Studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11712, 2025.

Accurate prediction of subsurface flow under uncertain, spatially varying conditions remains a core challenge in hydrogeology. This, in turn, has great impacts on our ability to predict and control contaminant transport in subsurface water bodies and control the dynamics of water quality. This work extends a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) framework to incorporate 1) Function-Guided (Parametric Stochasticity) and 2) Latent-Encoded (Generated Stochasticity) heterogeneities. In the former, a parametric function with random inputs generates multiple heterogeneous media, enabling transfer learning to sequentially refine network parameters across different realizations. The second pathway employs the decoder of a pretrained generative autoencoder—trained on numerous Gaussian Random Field realizations—to embed random hydraulic conductivity fields. Illustrated through a two-dimensional Darcy flow case study, the method is broadly applicable to a range of parametric PDE problems in hydrology, engineering, and environmental sciences. In particular the model can also be employed to effectively characterize contaminant transport scenarios, in the presence of uncertain model parameters, such as dispersivity or sorption properties. The model can also be employed to represent specific uncertainties related to the contamimant source location or other features affecting the space-time contaminant plume evolution. Results underscore the advantages of staged learning strategies for high-dimensional parametric PDEs, offering an efficient, physics-consistent tool for hydrological modeling and resource management.

How to cite: Panahi, M.: A Transfer-Learning PINN Framework to Simulate Fluid Flow and Contaminant Transport Under Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12117, 2025.

EGU25-14077 | Orals | HS2.3.5

Using a multi-tracer approach to assess wastewater contaminant inputs to surface waters from onsite wastewater treatment systems  

Clare Robinson, James Roy, Christopher Jobity, Evan Angus, Yunpeng Gao, and Thomas Edge

Quantifying contaminant inputs from onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to surface waters is needed in many watersheds to inform water quality management programs. This quantification is challenging due to the distributed locations of OWTSs across rural watersheds and uncertainties regarding the fate of the various wastewater contaminants in the environment. The objectives of this study were to i) identify the dominant pathways via which contaminants from OWTS reach streams, and ii) evaluate whether contaminant loads reaching streams from OWTS varies between watersheds with different physical and socio-economic characteristics, and between dry and wet weather conditions. These objectives were addressed by combining geospatial mapping, field investigations, and statistical analyses with the study focused on watersheds in Ontario, Canada. Detailed stream sampling was conducted in four watersheds with human wastewater tracers including artificial sweeteners (acesulfame, saccharin, cyclamate, sucralose) and microbial source tracking markers (HF183 and human mitochondrial markers) used to untangle the pathways via which OWTS-derived contaminants may be transported to streams. In addition, widespread sampling was conducted across 53 watersheds to assess the influence of physical and socio-economic characteristics on OWTS-derived contaminant inputs to streams. The data indicate that more contaminants reach streams during wet weather conditions and contributing pathways include groundwater transport as well as more rapid pathways including residential and agricultural tile drains. For more conservative contaminants, the amounts of contaminants reaching streams were significantly higher in watersheds with older households and with low topographic wetness index, but for less conservative contaminants other factors including the distance between OWTS and streams may be important. The findings of this study are needed to inform OWTS best management practices and to improve contaminant load estimates to streams. 

How to cite: Robinson, C., Roy, J., Jobity, C., Angus, E., Gao, Y., and Edge, T.: Using a multi-tracer approach to assess wastewater contaminant inputs to surface waters from onsite wastewater treatment systems , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14077, 2025.

EGU25-15371 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Modeling VOC Transport in a Large-Scale Thick Vadose Zone 

Ohad Shalom, Ovadia Lev, and Haim Gvirtzman

Groundwater contamination by volatile organic compounds (VOCs) presents a pressing environmental challenge, particularly in complex subsurface systems. As persistent pollutants, VOCs degrade water quality, threaten ecosystems, and pose serious health risks, necessitating effective containment and remediation strategies. In this study, we employ transport modeling to investigate industrial contaminant spreading in the Jerusalem Mountains, Israel, characterized by a thick, stratified, karstic, faulted, and folded vadose zone, including two-story perched aquifers. Despite limited monitoring data and a 50-year delay in detecting VOC leakage, our FEFLOW model successfully reconstructed key contaminant transport processes, including convection, dispersion, retardation, volatilization, and attenuation. We integrated a transport model with a calibrated flow model to trace the evolution of the VOC plume over 70 years, revealing critical dynamics within the vadose zone. Preferential flow occurs horizontally via perched aquifers and vertically through faults, enhanced by karstic networks. The vast extent of contamination, with the plume extending into the deep regional aquifer several decades after the presumed onset of pollutant dispersion, underscores the vadose zone's dual function as both a buffer and a facilitator of pollutants. While rapid flow paths enabled the aquitards to be traversed, effectively spreading contaminants into the regional water source, most of the unsaturated zone successfully contained the VOCs, mitigating their migration toward residential neighborhoods and critical groundwater resources. Our modeling predicts that, without remedial actions, the VOC plume will persist in the vadose zone, leaching slowly over time, with negligible attenuation in the coming decades. By uncovering these dynamics, our research not only aids local remediation efforts but also provides a framework for addressing similar challenges in complex hydrogeological settings worldwide.

How to cite: Shalom, O., Lev, O., and Gvirtzman, H.: Modeling VOC Transport in a Large-Scale Thick Vadose Zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15371, 2025.

EGU25-15417 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Phytomigration of Residual Heavy Metals from Technogenically Contaminated Treated Waters 

Konstantine Khachapuridze, Guranda Avkopashvili, and • Giorgi Mchedlishvili

The extraction of mineral resources in the mining industry, such as quarry development, processing of non-ferrous metals, and the formation of waste dumps, presents significant environmental challenges. These processes generate acid mine drainage contaminated with heavy metals, which have substantial adverse effects on the environment.
For this study, we selected industrial wastewater generated by the mining and processing operations of the "RMG Group" in Bolnisi district, Georgia. The research aimed to identify a modern method to remove residual heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Fe, Cd, Mn, Se) from chemically treated wastewater through phytomigration. The chosen method for this purpose was phytoremediation.
During the research, laboratory analyses were conducted on water samples collected from the Mashavera River—the recipient of treated wastewater—during the years 2022-2024. The heavy metal concentrations in these samples were compared with those obtained from studies conducted in 2018-2020. Despite the influence of climate change and the operation of a small hydroelectric power plant in the discharge section (resulting in decreased river discharge), the results showed that the average concentration of heavy metals decreased by 18.89% in 2022-2024 compared to 2018-2021.
For phytoremediation studies in 2024, wetlands impacted by industrial pollution near the mining quarry were selected. From these sites, plant species from five genera were identified. In wetland N1, located 2,928 meters (direct distance) from the quarry, four plant genera were collected. In wetland N2, situated 2,620 meters from the quarry near the tailings pond base, three plant genera were identified. For control samples, wetland N3 in Upper Karabulakhi, located 25,260 meters from the quarry, provided two plant genera. Based on research and analysis, the species selected for phytoremediation studies were: (1) Typha latifolia L. and (2) Arundo L. It is noteworthy that plants in the anthropogenic wetland near the tailings pond continued to grow despite the highly toxic and polluted environment, where the pH was as low as 3.42 and heavy metal concentrations were elevated.
The research is ongoing, and the findings from analyses of plant samples (roots, stems, leaves, and flowers) provide valuable information for the future development of the study.
If satisfactory results are achieved from pilot experiments on the phytoremediation of residual heavy metals from wastewater, the research will lay the groundwork for improving water quality in both surface and groundwater systems.
Furthermore, the green technological outcomes of this research could be highly beneficial for addressing similar environmental challenges in other industrial enterprises. Discovering new potential for aquaculture species may also lead to the development of cost-effective and profitable phytotechnologies for mining operations in the future.

How to cite: Khachapuridze, K., Avkopashvili, G., and Mchedlishvili, •.: Phytomigration of Residual Heavy Metals from Technogenically Contaminated Treated Waters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15417, 2025.

EGU25-15470 | Orals | HS2.3.5

Aquatic pollution from antibiotics production sites - evaluation of occurrences in wastewater, runoff and water bodies 

Tim aus der Beek, Ursula Karges, Pia Springmann, Arne Hein, Daniela Gildemeister, and Ute Kühnen

Antibiotic resistance is increasingly jeopardising the effectiveness of prevention and medical treatment of an increasing number of infectious diseases and is causing a high number of premature deaths worldwide. By now, it is widely recognised that the release of antibiotics into the environment via production wastewater discharged from the pharmaceutical industry constitutes an important factor. Evidently, tackling such point sources through appropriate treatment of production wastewater would be a decisive step towards achieving a substantial reduction in antibiotic pollution and consequently in a reduction of occurrences of resistant pathogens. The here presented pilot study addresses the overall feasibility of implementing maximum permitted API concentrations in production wastewater and how to verify compliance. Wastewater from 19 production sites from Europe, India and China has been investigated. The sites selected previously agreed to comply with the PNEC values for certain antibiotics in their wastewater and to permit independent inspections. In addition, wherever possible, supplementary environmental investigations were conducted in water bodies adjacent to the production sites.

So far, > 27 different antibiotics have been detected, some of them repeatedly and at several sampling locations. Antibiotic concentrations exceeding PNEC limits were found at ten production sites - both in wastewater samples and in affected environmental samples. Maximum environmental concentrations ranged from 0.1 µg/l up to 18.5 mg/l, wastewater concentrations from 0.1 µg/L to 22.5 µg/L. In the total number of environmental water samples analysed, more than 60 % of antibiotic concentrations exceeded the ecotoxicological PNEC value, whereas no reliable, scientifically derived effect threshold was available for other antibiotics in these samples.

The results of our study confirm and quantify that wastewater from pharmaceutical production sites, as well as surface runoff and thus the general handling of active substances at these sites, contribute significantly to high concentrations of antibiotics in the environment and thus to the potential emergence of antibiotic resistance. Moreover, in view of the current intention to regulate the emissions of antimicrobial substances via the environmental risk assessment for human pharmaceuticals, it should be borne in mind that an effective system for verifying the values or explanations provided by the companies is required.

How to cite: aus der Beek, T., Karges, U., Springmann, P., Hein, A., Gildemeister, D., and Kühnen, U.: Aquatic pollution from antibiotics production sites - evaluation of occurrences in wastewater, runoff and water bodies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15470, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15470, 2025.

EGU25-16226 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Spatial mapping of pesticides application rate in the European Union 

Giovanni Porta, Leon Casse, Andrea Manzoni, Monica Riva, Federico Maggi, and Alberto Guadagnini

Our work targets mapping of pesticides application rates within the European Union at 250m spatial resolution. Source data include global estimates of pesticide inputs, high resolution crop maps and pesticide usage reported by EUROSTAT official figures. The previously published global pesticide application rates in PEST-CHEMGRIDS are used as a first guess estimate. This is then corrected using a calibration dataset gathered from pesticide use in agriculture. The estimation of the applied mass by country and crop type is then combined with high resolution crop maps. The procedure explicitly accounts data quality and uncertainty through on a Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure. This data product features detailed spatial distributions of pesticide inputs, facilitating evaluation of pesticide fate and transport, biogeochemical transformations as well as environmental risk assessment. The poster will focus on key uncertainties and data gaps that constitute key challenges in the quantification of pesticides inputs.

How to cite: Porta, G., Casse, L., Manzoni, A., Riva, M., Maggi, F., and Guadagnini, A.: Spatial mapping of pesticides application rate in the European Union, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16226, 2025.

EGU25-16993 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Catchment-scale modeling of pesticide fate in soil, water and air, taking into account intra-field heterogeneity in vineyard contexts. 

Cécile Dages, Carole Bedos, David Crevoisier, François Lafolie, Benjamin Loubet, Erwan Personne, Nicolas Beudez, Meriem Djouhri, Martin Faucher, Jean-Christophe Fabre, Armel Thoni, Fabrice Vinatier, and Marc Voltz

Vines are a major consumer of pesticides. Pesticide contamination has been reported for all environmental compartments in the wine-growing context, prompting the definition of more sustainable vine-growing methods. Intra-parcel heterogeneity in vineyard plots is high, due to the fact that vines are grown in rows, pesticides are applied mainly to these rows, and several soil management practices coexist within a plot (chemical weeding, tillage, grassing). To evaluate the environmental dispersion and fate of pesticides in vineyards, we have adapted the field plot sub-model of integrative pesticide landscape fate model MIPP (Modélisation Intégrée du devenir des Pesticides dans les Paysages agricoles) (Voltz et al., 2019). MIPP is a spatially explicit mechanistic model that couples the fate of pesticides in soil, water, and air as influenced by the spatial and temporal organization of farming practices and landscape properties. It thus considers the horizontal hydrological and atmospheric transfers within the landscape, using respectively the MHYDAS and FIDES model. The plot-scale sub-model distinguishes between rows and inter-rows compartments so that different management practices can be applied and spraying deposits correctly located. Concerning the processes, the plot-scale sub-model is based on the coupling of the following three sets of modules:

- a mechanistic soil fate module from the VSoil modelling software platform that simulates water, heat and pesticide transfers in dissolved or gaseous form. Physico-chemical equilibrium is assumed between the solid, liquid, gaseous phases in soil. Volatilisation is calculated from the soil and the vine leaves. Pesticide exchange rate between surface run-off water and soil surface layer is assumed proportional to the pesticide concentration gradient.

- a three sources energy balance module explicitly considering the proportions of plot area covered by bare soil, vine canopy and grass cover.

- a module simulating the evolution of surface conditions, which includes the simulation of the dynamics of spontaneous herbaceous cover in inter-row compartments considering water stress and the changes in soil hydraulic conductivity according to soil management.

The MIPP model is developed within the modelling software platform OpenFLUID that enables easy coupling.

This presentation will focus on a description of the model, a first series of performance evaluations and applications to estimate the environmental impact of pesticides in a Mediterranean wine-growing watershed (Rieutort, located in southern France).

How to cite: Dages, C., Bedos, C., Crevoisier, D., Lafolie, F., Loubet, B., Personne, E., Beudez, N., Djouhri, M., Faucher, M., Fabre, J.-C., Thoni, A., Vinatier, F., and Voltz, M.: Catchment-scale modeling of pesticide fate in soil, water and air, taking into account intra-field heterogeneity in vineyard contexts., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16993, 2025.

EGU25-18289 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Assessing the Groundwater Heritage of Veterinary Antibiotics: Insights from Field Measurements and Modeling in an intensive agricultural watershed 

Rock S. Bagagnan, Camille Vautier, Anniet Laverman, and Ronan Abhervé

Veterinary antibiotics, widely used in agriculture, are emerging contaminants with significant implications for water quality and ecosystem health. This study investigates the presence and heritage of antibiotics and other pollutants in groundwater within the Naizin watershed (~5 km²) in Brittany (western France), a region marked by intensive agricultural activity. Field measurements revealed the occurrence of veterinary antibiotics in surface water and groundwater, alongside other pollutants. Additionally, CFCs and SF6 gas tracers provided groundwater age estimates ranging from 20 to 30 years, suggesting potential long-term heritage effects. A particle-tracking approach using HydroModPy, a calibrated MODFLOW-coupled groundwater flow model, was implemented to complement this study. Hydraulic conductivity and porosity, determined from hydrological characterization and calibration of the watershed, were incorporated to estimate residence times. The simulated groundwater residence times closely matched those inferred from tracer data, strengthening the linkage between field measurements and model outputs. These results highlight the persistence of pollutants such as antibiotics and underscore the need for integrated field and modelling approaches to assess contaminant load and transport  in agricultural catchments. This study offers critical insights into the interactions between anthropogenic activities, pollutant dynamics, and groundwater quality, providing a foundation for improved water resource management and pollution mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Bagagnan, R. S., Vautier, C., Laverman, A., and Abhervé, R.: Assessing the Groundwater Heritage of Veterinary Antibiotics: Insights from Field Measurements and Modeling in an intensive agricultural watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18289, 2025.

EGU25-19984 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Specific groundwater vulnerability maps for selected micropollutants 

Vit Kodes, Radka Kodesova, Ganna Fedorova, Martin Kocarek, Miroslav Fer, Helena Svecova, Ales Klement, Roman Grabic, Antonin Nikodem, and Hedvika Roztocilova

Soil and groundwater can be contaminated by various micropollutants if treated wastewater or surface water that has been contaminated by this source are used for irrigation. Another source of contamination can be sewage sludge from wastewater treatment plants that is frequently used for soil enrichment. These contaminants can migrate through the soil environment and subsequently contaminate groundwater. Their leaching from soils and migration towards groundwater depends on the climatic conditions, properties of the vadose zone environment and behavior of a particular compound, i.e., its sorption onto soils and sediments, and stability in the environment. The Freundlich sorption isotherms were evaluated for twenty-one micropollutants (PPCPs, benzotriazoles, bishenols) and representative soils of the Czech Republic. Multiple linear regressions were used to derive equations for predicting the Freundlich sorption coefficient (KF) using the properties of tested soils. These equations, the soil map, and the database of soil properties were used to predict the KF value distributions within the Czech agricultural soils and subsequently to delineate classes of compounds’ mobility in the soil environment, i.e., mobility index. The dissipation and half-lives of all micropollutants were also evaluated for the representative Czech soils. This information was used to define compound’s stability index. General groundwater vulnerability map (i.e., distribution of the DRASTIC vulnerability index) was derived using the DRASTIC method. Next, specific groundwater vulnerability maps for each compound were obtained by combining the DRASTIC vulnerability index, mobility index and stability index. The resulting maps of specific groundwater vulnerability for selected compounds were confronted with the respective results of groundwater monitoring that is caried out by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The work was supported by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic, project No QK 23020018 and QL 24010384.

How to cite: Kodes, V., Kodesova, R., Fedorova, G., Kocarek, M., Fer, M., Svecova, H., Klement, A., Grabic, R., Nikodem, A., and Roztocilova, H.: Specific groundwater vulnerability maps for selected micropollutants, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19984, 2025.

EGU25-20401 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Integrating field data and modeling: Dimensional perspectives on pesticide transport 

Sachin Karan and Nora Badawi

In a European pesticide regulatory context, 1D models are recommended for leaching risk assessments to align with common European evaluation methodologies. However, it is well-known that real-world flow and transport of potential contaminants are rarely confined to 1D due to the ubiquitous heterogeneous geology.

In this study, we use a detailed field monitoring setup established through the Danish Pesticide Leaching Assessment Program to investigate the performance of tracer- and pesticide simulations in 1D, 2D, and 3D numerical models. Our approach involves hydrological monitoring and groundwater sampling for analyses of tracers and pesticides from a heavily instrumented agricultural field site on a glacial outwash plain.

Although the site is characterized as being homogeneously sandy, the monitoring reveals substantial spatial differences in both the compound detections and concentration magnitudes. This raises multiple questions about how to represent 3D field measurements (from different depths and different locations) in lower-dimensional models, including:

  • Model simplifications: How do the assumptions inherent in 1D modeling affect the accuracy of leaching risk assessments for pesticides, particularly when accounting for spatial variability in hydrology and geology?
  • Upscaling/downscaling: What are the implications of scaling field measurements to a 1D framework, and can such simplifications still adequately capture the critical transport processes observed in 2D and 3D environments?
  • Regulatory implications: How might the insights gained from 2D and 3D simulations challenge or strengthen the current regulatory reliance on 1D modeling in Europe?

To address these questions, we use data from bromide tracer experiments and monitoring of the degradation product DMS following cyazofamid field applications. These data are represented in 1D, 2D, and 3D numerical modeling frameworks to evaluate the raised concerns.

How to cite: Karan, S. and Badawi, N.: Integrating field data and modeling: Dimensional perspectives on pesticide transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20401, 2025.

EGU25-20543 | Posters on site | HS2.3.5

Understanding Emission Sources, Environmental Conditions, and Chemical Properties by clustering data on Micropollutants in Surface Water 

Stefan Kools, Elvio Amato, Thomas ter Laak, and Tessa Pronk

Water quality monitoring programs produce extensive data, yet the drivers of temporal and spatial variations in substance concentrations often remain unclear. Our studies cluster substances with co-varying concentrations across 19 monitoring sites in the Rhine and Meuse rivers, identifying 196 clusters. Nine recurring clusters, with consistent compositions across sites, were linked to environmental conditions and substance properties. Overlap with reference substance lists, categorizing substances by source or usage, highlighted similar impacts on both rivers. Some substances could not be clustered due to inconsistent co-variation. These findings, combining cluster analyses with environmental and chemical insights, enhance understanding of concentration variations. In this way, we aim to support water managers in devising targeted strategies to improve water quality, e.g. managing compounds of emerging compounds, for example pesticides and PFAS.

How to cite: Kools, S., Amato, E., ter Laak, T., and Pronk, T.: Understanding Emission Sources, Environmental Conditions, and Chemical Properties by clustering data on Micropollutants in Surface Water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20543, 2025.

Streams worldwide suffer from water quality degradation to an extent that their ecological function has been severely impaired. In Mediterranean climates, runoff generated during short, intense winter rainstorms becomes a major pathway for transporting micropollutants from agricultural areas, especially during early storms when agricultural soils are often bare and most vulnerable to erosion. To address the global imperative of mitigating water pollution, effective strategies are required to pinpoint priority agricultural pollution sources and advance nature-based source control. A watershed-scale sampling approach was designed to characterize stormflows in the Kishon Basin, Israel and identify polluting compounds with high concentrations, aimed at tracing contamination ‘hotspots’ to specific sub basins.  Existing methods often miss variation in hydrochemistry dynamics during storm events and focus only on dissolved chemicals.  We present an innovative tool to characterize sediment-bound pollutants, and combine this with conventional grab sampling and passive samplers, to better represent the whole storm hydrograph. This study investigated polar organic pollutants, including agricultural pesticides and pharmaceuticals derived from treated wastewater used for irrigation. Passive sampler results identified a total of 169 pesticides based on suspect screening and quantified 98, with an average of 32 different pesticides identified in each sampling location. We identified 59 pesticides, 15 pharmaceuticals, and 22 metals using the grab sampling method, with 25 pesticides that were identified and quantified in all three methods. The sediment trap results identified that only one of the 19 tributaries contributed heavy metals to the Kishon River.  Pesticides banned for over a decade, which degrade quickly, were detected throughout the basin, suggesting illegal continued applications. This approach enabled improved understanding of specific chemical transport methods and clear identification of priority tributaries and their chemical contributions, advancing a new approach to watershed management. Application of study findings will support development of strategic plans to improve the farm-stream interface, conserve soil resources, protect water quality, facilitate source control and provide crucial support for decision-makers formulating intervention strategies, demonstrating a model for a national watershed monitoring program.

How to cite: Rein, F. O., Fones, G., and Grabic, R.: Innovative tools for watershed-scale water quality monitoring to identify and quantify micropollutant hotspots in Mediterranean climate first-flush storm waters , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20700, 2025.

EGU25-1025 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.6

Plastic entrapment by riparian vegetation across ecological gradients in European rivers: First insights from the RIPARIANET Project  

Luca Gallitelli, Maria Cristina Bruno, Jose Barquin, Laura Concostrina Zubiri, Micael Jonsson, Morgan Hughes, Stefano Larsen, Monika Laux, Giorgio Pace, Massimiliano Scalici, and Ralf Schulz

Plastic litter accumulating in riverine riparian habitats is a global concern. Macrolitter items are highly visible (items > 0.5 cm) and threaten river and riparian biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although scientific interest in plastic entrapment along river corridors is growing, large-scale studies and predictive models assessing drivers and patterns in riverine plastic accumulation are still lacking. Given those gaps, this study investigates plastic entrapment by riparian vegetation at different spatial scales and ecological gradients across European rivers. We focused on six river basins across Europe, covering the biogeographic regions boreal (Sweden), continental (Germany), alpine (Trento, Italy), Mediterranean (Rome, Italy), and Atlantic (Northern Spain, Northern Portugal) climatic regions as part of the European Biodiversa+ RIPARIANET project. By surveying macrolitter across six European basins, we aim to unveil differences in riverine macrolitter accumulation in riparian areas across a large biogeographic and land-use gradient. We found that riparian vegetation acts as a sink for macrolitter across European rivers, with the highest trapping value in the Tiber catchment (Italy) and the lowest in the Sävar River basin (Sweden), following a clear latitudinal gradient. Among predictors, urbanization, land use, river discharge, sinuosity, and vegetation structure are crucial factors driving macroplastic accumulation. Our findings shed light on how macroplastics accumulate in riparian zones across Europe, with both ecological and societal consequences, and could guide management efforts for their active removal.  Given the potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, our results may help prioritize monitoring and clean-up activities of plastics to protect and restore riparian ecosystems.

How to cite: Gallitelli, L., Bruno, M. C., Barquin, J., Concostrina Zubiri, L., Jonsson, M., Hughes, M., Larsen, S., Laux, M., Pace, G., Scalici, M., and Schulz, R.: Plastic entrapment by riparian vegetation across ecological gradients in European rivers: First insights from the RIPARIANET Project , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1025, 2025.

EGU25-4182 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.6

Microplastic Loads in Freshwater Lakes: Prioritized Regions and Management Strategies 

Huike Dong, Xiaoping Wang, Ruixuan zhang, Ping Gong, Jiamin Zeng, Xuerui Niu, and Qianxue Yin

Background: Microplastic contamination in freshwater lakes has grown up to a main concern in recent years. While there is no knowledge about the global distribution and loads of microplastics in the lacustrine environment. Methods: We commence to solve this matter based on trawl net method investigations in freshwater lakes. Through redundant analysis (RDA) and structural equation model (SEM), we first identify the main influencing factors that affect the microplastic concentrations in freshwater lakes. Then, we use Machine Learning and number to mass transformation tactics to fill in gaps and reach a global prediction (Fig. 1). Findings: (1) We found cropland plays a similar positive effect with population density on microplastic concentration, while vegetation has the opposite effect. The findings highlight the importance of these land use types in the lake basin for the first time. (2) Totally, we demonstrate an average microplastic concentration of 0.57 items/m3 in lakes and reservoirs around the world. The accumulated microplastic load in the upper 20 m of lakes and reservoirs is 10,167 tons, which is equal to 508 million plastic bottles. (3) The concentration hotspots of lacustrine microplastics gather in east and southeast Asia, India, north back of Black Sea and Nile Delta. North America, Africa and Asia are continents with highest microplastic loads (Fig. 2), but with different causation (concentration-dependent and/or area-dependent, shape composition affected). The giant lakes around world contribute highest microplastic loads. Significance: The findings of this study provide a feasible approach to estimate the microplastic loads of global lakes, and assist to make reasonable policies to mitigate the microplastic pollution in freshwaters.

Fig. 1 Research framework of how to make global estimation of microplastic loads in lakes/reservoirs.

Fig. 2 The predicted microplastic loads in lakes worldwide (lake area>100 km2). The red dotted lines are boundary lines of continents in the present study.

 

How to cite: Dong, H., Wang, X., zhang, R., Gong, P., Zeng, J., Niu, X., and Yin, Q.: Microplastic Loads in Freshwater Lakes: Prioritized Regions and Management Strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4182, 2025.

EGU25-4437 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Microplastic Emissions and Retention in Urban Catchments and Stormwater Ponds 

Mir Amir Mohammad Reshadi, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, Sarah Kaykhosravi, Thu Hang Nguyen, Stephanie Slowinski, Ali Reza Shahvaran, Lewis Alcott, Monica Puopolo, and Philippe Van Cappellen

The rapid growth in plastic production and mismanagement of plastic waste streams have raised environmental concerns, with microplastics (MPs) emerging as pervasive pollutants. This study quantifies stormwater MP exports from urban areas by examining five stormwater management ponds (SWPs) and their representative catchments in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, using field sampling, laboratory extraction, and modeling approaches. Using Laser Direct Infrared (LDIR) spectroscopy, MP concentrations were determined for different MP shapes and polymer compositions, enabling the calculation of both particle- and mass-based fluxes. A hydrology model coupled with a mass balance approach was employed to estimate MP emission factors (i.e. export coefficients) and retention efficiencies in both particle- and mass-based units. Land use impacts were examined by classifying stormwater catchments through machine learning-aided analysis of aerial imagery. Sediment emissions were also quantified through surveys and samplings to explore potential correlations with MP exports. Industrial catchments showed the highest MP emission factor at 8.7×1011 particles ha-1 year-1 (19.6 kg ha-1 year-1), whereas residential areas exhibited the lowest emissions at 1.7×1011 particles ha-1 year-1 (2.3 kg ha-1 year-1). Fibrous MPs accounted for 2–6% of particle-based emissions but 10–24% by mass, highlighting differences in composition across land use types. Parking lots and traffic were key contributors to MP pollution, consistent with polymer composition analysis. SWP retention efficiencies ranged from 73–97% for total loads but varied for specific polymers, from minimal to complete retention. Retention performance was influenced by SWP design features such as inlet and outlet configurations, catchment wash-off dynamics, and hydraulic residence time. These findings emphasize the critical role of land use and SWP design in urban stormwater MP mitigation, with industrial and high-traffic areas contributing significantly to pollution. Understanding these dynamics provides actionable insights for mitigating MP emissions and optimizing SWP retention performance to protect aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Reshadi, M. A. M., Rezanezhad, F., Kaykhosravi, S., Nguyen, T. H., Slowinski, S., Shahvaran, A. R., Alcott, L., Puopolo, M., and Van Cappellen, P.: Microplastic Emissions and Retention in Urban Catchments and Stormwater Ponds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4437, 2025.

EGU25-6718 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

A transboundary case of investigating longitudinal water and sediment connectivity using microplastics in the Thayatal/Podyji National Park 

Samuel Roudbar, Rebecca Young, Ronald Pöppl, Daniel Le Heron, and Michael Wagreich

Microplastics are increasingly recognized as potential tracers of anthropogenic activities and sediment transport. Due to their irregular shapes and low densities, these particles exhibit transport behaviours that differ significantly from naturally occurring sediments. However, analysing their distribution and characteristics can help identify microplastic sources and sinks, offering insights into their transport dynamics within the environment. This study focuses on the Thayatal/Podyjí National Park, situated along the border of Lower Austria (Austria, AT) and Southern Moravia (Czech Republic, CZ), where plastic pollution has not previously been monitored. Water samples (approximately 5 m³ each) were collected in triplicate from five locations along and across a hydrologically disconnected section of the Thaya/Podyjí River, spanning from Vranov (CZ) to Hnanice (CZ). Sampling was conducted using a 30 cm in diameter plankton net with a mesh size of 150 μm in early November 2024. Flow velocity was measured across the width of the channel using MF Pro flowmeter. Between each sampling phase, the net was cleaned three times using pressurized filtered (40 µm) water at 3-4 bars. To assess the influence of tributaries and their connectivity to the main river channel, samples were also taken from three tributaries: Klaperův Creek (CZ), Kaja Creek (AT), and the Fugnitz River (AT). Additional samples were collected along the Fugnitz River, a medium-sized agricultural stream (catchment area 131 km2) that has been the focus of connectivity research over the past decade. This study is conducted alongside ongoing research on microplastic transport at the catchment scale, with a particular emphasis on lateral connectivity in the Fugnitz catchment. The overarching aim of this research is to evaluate the potential of microplastics as tracers of geomorphological connectivity and to improve understanding of their behaviour in comparison to natural sediments. This analysis is supported by erosion modelling and grain size analysis. Geomorphological features of the Thaya/Podyjí River, along with anthropogenic factors influencing connectivity, are being analysed using remote sensing and GIS tools. In the sedimentology laboratory, water samples from the Thaya/Podyjí section undergo organic matter reduction using Fenton’s reagent (H₂O₂ with an Fe²⁺ catalyst) and density separation with potassium formate (HCO2K; density 1.45 g/cm³). Microplastic particles are then analysed with an ATR-FTIR Lumos II microscope, with manual identification performed on 25% of the filter area. Ongoing protocol validation includes blank tests and recovery rate analyses to ensure methodological reliability. As of now, results from 3 locations along the main channel were produced. From upstream to downstream, location 1 had 6.4±1.31 particles per m3, location 2 had 10.2±0.8 particles per m3 and location 3 had 10±3.39 particles per m3. In the upcoming spring, additional fieldwork may be performed to evaluate seasonality of discharge as well as other sampling parameters affecting the discharge i.e. depth and time of sampling. 

How to cite: Roudbar, S., Young, R., Pöppl, R., Le Heron, D., and Wagreich, M.: A transboundary case of investigating longitudinal water and sediment connectivity using microplastics in the Thayatal/Podyji National Park, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6718, 2025.

EGU25-7379 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

From historical plastic pollution to environmental remediation scenarios. A case study in the Seine estuary  

Clément Vadaine, Bruno Tassin, Rachid Dris, and Romain Tramoy

The Seine River basin, home to a quarter of the French population, faces the generation of around one million tons of plastic waste each year in the Paris region. Despite efficient plastic waste management, some of it escapes the systems and ends up in the Seine River, contributing to its pollution. Recent studies show that plastic debris remains in the river due to tides. This promotes the accumulation of plastic debris on the riverbanks, particularly during floods, creating historical accumulation zones in some areas. In this way, these plastics along with their chemical substances, pollute all environmental compartments. The aim of the TEDiPLAST project is to better understand the sources, stocks, fluxes, and dynamics of plastic debris in historical accumulation zones. How they build up and what do they become? First, innovative clean-up techniques will be tested to ensure effective collection of plastic debris, including those as small as preproduction industrial pellets. Second, adapted sampling and treatment protocols will be implemented to obtain representative results along a size class continuum, from macroplastics to coarse microplastics (> 500 µm), while considering their respective characteristics. Third, macroplastics will be sorted according to the OSPAR/TSG ML, whereas smaller plastic debris will be analysed by ATR-FTIR. Additionally, all data related to tracing debris sources and their lifespan in the environment will be recorded (dates, brand names, logos, etc.). One of the challenges consists in combining analytical techniques and sampling protocols to cover a large continuum of plastic sizes, while remaining representative of extensive and heterogeneous accumulation zones where up to 4 kg of plastic per square meter accumulates. Furthermore, preproduction industrial pellets will also be a focus, as they are one of the main plastic wastes found in these zones due to the vicinity of some producers and converters along the Seine River. At the end, remediation scenarios will be suggested to support mitigation policies and strategies.

How to cite: Vadaine, C., Tassin, B., Dris, R., and Tramoy, R.: From historical plastic pollution to environmental remediation scenarios. A case study in the Seine estuary , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7379, 2025.

Plastic contamination has been receiving considerable attention during the last few decades (Siegfried et al., 2017). In the present study, the authors extended process-based eco-hydrology models, NICE (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology) and NICE-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycle) (Nakayama, 2017), to link them with plastic debris model (Nakayama and Osako, 2023a, 2023b), and applied to all of the 109 first-class (class A) river basins throughout Japan. The model included advection, dispersion, diffusion, settling, dissolution and deterioration due to light and temperature, interaction with suspended matter (heteroaggregation), resuspension, and biofouling. These processes could help to evaluate effect of mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) and point sources (tyres, personal care products, dust, and laundry) on spatio-temporal dynamics of macro- and micro-plastics there. The result clarified the finer resolution slightly decreased the flux of macro-plastics, particularly in the urban regions. The model also revealed that the amount of micro-plastic flux calculated by accumulating point information at sewage treatment plants could be replaced by analysis using grid data categorized for treatment methods (sewage, septic tank, untreated) in each grid instead of global data of per capita emission and treatment rates (Jones et al., 2021). The result also clarified that the plastic cycle, particularly micro-plastic, in rivers flowing through urban areas has been significantly altered (Wagner et al., 2019). Finaly, the author evaluated the method to improve plastic cycle in urban regions towards understanding of urban plastic cycle with fewer inventory data (Strokal et al., 2021). These results help to quantify impacts of plastic waste on biosphere in urban systems, and may aid development of solutions and measures to reduce plastic input to the ocean.

 

References

Jones, E.R., et al. 2021. Earth System Science Data, 13, 237-254, doi:10.5194/essd-13-237-2021.

Nakayama, T. 2017. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 122, 966-988, doi:10.1002/2016JG003743.

Nakayama, T., Osako, M. 2023a. Ecological Modelling, 476, 110243, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110243.

Nakayama, T., Osako, M. 2023b. Global and Planetary Change, 221, 104037, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104037.

Siegfried, M., et al. 2017. Water Research, 127, 249-257, doi:10.1016/j.watres.2017.10.011.

Strokal, M., et al. 2021. Urban Sustainability, 1, 24, doi:10.1038/s42949-021-00026-w.

Wagner, S., et al. 2019. Environmental Science & Technology, 53, 10082-10091, doi:10.1021/acs.est.9b03048.

How to cite: Nakayama, T.: Towards improving the accuracy of plastic cycle in urban regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7481, 2025.

EGU25-9806 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

 Abundances and characteristics of sedimentary microplastics in the three main Vietnamese Rivers 

Thi Thao Nguyen, Van Hoi Bui, Vincent Fauvelle, Sylvain Ouillon, Pascal Wong-Wah-Chung, and Laure Malleret

Global plastic production in 2023 reached 400.3 million metric tons (MMT)1. After being released into the environment, plastics degrade into secondary plastic – a major source of microplastics due to environmental factors. Microplastics (MPs), defined as plastic particles smaller than 5 mm, are ubiquitous across marine, freshwater and atmospheric environments2. Given their widespread dissemination and persistence, MPs have emerged as a notable environmental threat. Vietnam would rank 4th of the top 20 countries most polluted by plastic waste, with approximately 3.1 MMT of mismanaged plastic waste discharged in 20223. Despite this, research on MPs within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) remains limited, accounting for only 5% of global studies, with Vietnam’s contribution of just 0.6%3.

This work aimed to examine the occurrence of MPs in superficial sediment samples collected at the 3 largest Vietnamese rivers from downstream parts to the sea: the Red River (RR, n=25 sampling points), Saigon River (SG, n=16), and Mekong River (MK, n=13) during the rainy season 2024. The analytical procedure involved digestion by hydroperoxide 20% (v/v), flotation by potassium carbonate (d=1.5 g.cm-3), and filtration (pore size 13 to 5000 µm). The filters were analyzed by µ-FTIR to determine the abundances and composition.

The results showed the concentrations of MPs in sediments ranged from 653 to 8069 items.kg in RR, from 2978 to 32151items.kg-1 in SG, and from 3173 to 15216 items.kg-1 dry weight in MK. The results underlined the previously observed link between MP input and vicinity to urban/densely populated areas since the highest concentrations were found close to the urban areas along the three rivers (i.e. Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Can Tho City). As expected, the trend showed MP dilution at the rivers’ mouths. The particle size of 13–200 µm represented the major size class, accounting for 72.4%, 90.7%, and 85.1% in RR, SG, and MK, respectively. Polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) were the major polymers, accounting for a total of 82.4%, 78.3%, and 87.5% in RR, SG, and MK, respectively. The risk was assessed and represented high degrees of pollution load index, hazard index, and potential ecological risk index. High ecological risks were primarily linked to polymer hazards, particularly PVC, rather than pollution load. All the stations presenting a high polymeric risk also posed a high potential ecotoxicological risk. However, the station containing a large number of MPs does not necessarily present the highest potential ecological risk. This must be carefully considered in future regulations. The outcomes of this study will contribute todocumenting the quality status of the aquatic environment and support improved management and conservation of aquatic resources not only in Vietnam but also in ASEAN countries, where plastic production, consumption, and recycling activities are rapidly increasing. 

References

[1] PlasticsEurope, 2023

[2] Sambandam et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.135135

[3] Gabisa et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114118

How to cite: Nguyen, T. T., Bui, V. H., Fauvelle, V., Ouillon, S., Wong-Wah-Chung, P., and Malleret, L.:  Abundances and characteristics of sedimentary microplastics in the three main Vietnamese Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9806, 2025.

EGU25-9892 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Post-flood macroplastic deposition in riparian vegetation and floodplains 

Rahel Hauk, Louise J. Schreyers, Martine van der Ploeg, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nicholas Wallerstein, and Tim H.M. van Emmerik

Rivers store and transport large amounts of macroplastic and other macrolitter, and floods potentially drive their transport and deposition processes. Floods can have a major impact on the mobilization of plastic, yet factors determining the deposition remain unresolved. In this study, we sampled floodplains along two major Dutch rivers, following two flood events of different magnitude: the July 2021 extreme flood along the Meuse (> 100 year return period) and the January 2024 winter flood along the IJssel (3 year return period). Post-flood macroplastic and other macrolitter is found to locally accumulate in vegetation elements and debris piles, however it is not clear what this looks like at a river scale. We therefore decided to sample floodplains very detailed to analyze these deposition dynamics. We documented the specific location on the floodplain, and the element, e.g. debris pile or type of vegetation, in which each macrolitter item was found. Overall macrolitter accumulated mainly in vegetation elements along the Meuse river and within debris piles along the IJssel river. The average macrolitter concentration was lowest in grass (0.12 - 0.13 items/m²) and highest in debris piles (5.67 – 12.70 items/m²) for both rivers. There seem to be two ways macrolitter items are generally deposited on inundated riverbanks, above ground, and on the ground. Above ground, they can encounter an obstruction in their transport path and get entangled, e.g. in inundated tree branches, on the ground, they can be deposited where water and land surface meet, e.g. be left behind at the highest floodline. Macrolitter items deposited above ground in shrubs and trees, were larger compared to items deposited on the ground and in ground-covering vegetation. Macrolitter deposition following the flood in the Meuse showed distinct obstruction based deposition where the flood was most severe. Overall, along the Meuse, the items had a higher average mass and a higher mass concentration with 3.49 g/m², compared to the IJssel with 1.72 g/m². Deposition along the IJssel was debris pile dominated, with 69% of items deposited in debris < 2.5 cm. Debris piles along the IJssel constituted 2.2% of the sampled area but contained 58.3% of found macrolitter items and 32.3% of macrolitter mass. Identifying such hotspots and understanding how different floods drive the transport and deposition of macrolitter can contribute to guide improvements on monitoring and post-flood clean-up strategies, as well as prevention strategies, and impact assessment.

How to cite: Hauk, R., Schreyers, L. J., van der Ploeg, M., Teuling, A. J., Wallerstein, N., and van Emmerik, T. H. M.: Post-flood macroplastic deposition in riparian vegetation and floodplains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9892, 2025.

EGU25-10593 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.6

Microplastic dynamics along an extreme flood event in a peri-urban stream  

Lucas Friceau, Guilherme Calabro Souza, Arnaud Blanchouin, Hocine Hénine, Bruno Tassin, and Rachid Dris

Recent studies have investigated the effects of hydrological conditions on the dynamics of microplastics (MPs) in rivers. However, no clear correlation is consistently observed. In addition, these studies focus on sampling before and after the event, neglecting the dynamics of MPs over the course of the event. Given the increased intensity of extreme events related to climate change, an understanding of fine temporal MP dynamics in rivers is required to better estimate the fluxes and their contribution to downstream contamination. To address this gap and enhance understanding of the impact of hydrological conditions on MP contamination, an intensive sampling campaign was conducted throughout hurricane Kirk. This event caused an extreme flood in October 2024 at the outlet of a small peri-urban catchment (Avenelles, 45 km², 70 km east of Paris). Sampling was performed using a plastic-free in-situ filtration pumping system coupled with in series filtration (300 and 10 µm). Analyses were carried out using Fourier transform infrared µ-spectroscopy (automated imaging and data processing with SiMPle software), enabling the characterization of MP particles down to 25 µm. In addition, total suspended solids (TSS) were characterized alongside the sampling campaign to investigate their potential role in the transport and dynamics of MPs. Throughout this campaign, 18 samples were collected throughout the 6-day flood event, including pre-event conditions, the increasing and decreasing water levels, and post-event base flow. The MP concentrations and flux increased twofold from pre-flood (669 MPs m-3 and 398 MPs s-1) to flood peak (10804 MPs m-3 and 56181 MPs s-1). Four days after the flood peak, the concentration and flux returned to levels similar to those observed pre-flood (977 MPs m-3 and 479 MPs s-1). In addition, the concentrations of MPs and TSS exhibited a similar trend, with a correlation coefficient of 0.66.  These results highlight the limitations of interpreting hydrological effects based on data limited to pre- and post-flood sampling, underscoring the importance of studying the full progression of flood dynamics.

How to cite: Friceau, L., Calabro Souza, G., Blanchouin, A., Hénine, H., Tassin, B., and Dris, R.: Microplastic dynamics along an extreme flood event in a peri-urban stream , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10593, 2025.

EGU25-10640 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Modelling yearly accumulation and outflow budgets of macro-plastics on a river basin scale 

Fredrik Huthoff, Sjoukje De Lange, and Matthijs Gensen

A novel transport model of macro-plastics in rivers is applied to the River Meuse (Netherlands) to estimate yearly outflow quantities towards the North Sea, and to predict locations where waste accumulations along the banks and in the floodplain are likely to occur. The model has been calibrated to measurements of plastic concentrations in the flow, thereby giving a realistic indicative value of yearly plastic budgets. A comparison to aerial images of plastic waste hotspots observed after a recent flood event shows that the model is capable of predicting approximate waste accumulation sites. We explain how the model could be applied to other river cases around the world and, next, argue how the model can be used to make monitoring campaigns more effective, and how it can help in the design of effective clean-up strategies. 

How to cite: Huthoff, F., De Lange, S., and Gensen, M.: Modelling yearly accumulation and outflow budgets of macro-plastics on a river basin scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10640, 2025.

The world’s future is threatened by a triple planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution. Plastic pollution is linked to various consequences for biota and is a major concern for policy makers. Since the 1970s the widespread presence of industrial plastic pellets, with dimensions between 25 and 50 mm, have been observed in surface waters and beaches all over the world, raising concerns about the potential environmental impacts of plastic pellets .

We present a case study along the Scheldt estuary, encompassing the port of Antwerp, a large polymer hub for production, handling and distribution of plastic pellets. Beginning decades ago, pellets are being unintentionally released into the environment and find their way to the Scheldt river, where plastic transportation and accumulation on the riverbanks are determined by the physicochemical properties of the pellets (polymer type, density, size, shape, …) as well as hydrological processes and other factors, e.g. surface morphology, vegetation,… . Efforts have been made to quantify plastic pollution in the Scheldt estuary. However there is a paucity of data to evaluate plastic pellet pollution in particular and  there is no harmonized sampling methodology that is suitable for measuring pellet concentrations on the estuary’s riverbanks, with its great spatial and temporal diversity in occurrence and heterogeneity in landscape.

To elucidate transport and accumulation patterns of the released plastic pellets, we set up an extensive monitoring campaign. Pellets were manually sampled on 28 locations along the Scheldt riverbank between Vlissingen and Melle, using a 50 by 50 cm quadrat. To capture the spatial heterogeneity of the pellet concentration, at each location 9 replicates were taken in a standardized manner. The surface materials within the quadrats were collected and air dried before pellets were separated manually and counted.

The spatial distribution of the number of pellets on the riverbanks revealed that most pellets were found in the Antwerp port area (3,352 pellets per m²). Upstream from the port (314 pellets per m²) more pellets were found compared to the locations downstream from the port (110 pellets per m²). Significantly more pellets were found on locations close to a physical barrier (e.g. a bridge, a quay, an unnatural bulge, …), located in the outer bend or on a straight part of the river, oriented in Southern, Western or Southwestern wind direction, with a surface other than flat sandy and on locations with high or very high vegetation.

Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy was used to determine the polymer type of the pellets, revealing that most pellets consisted of polyethylene and polypropylene. The images obtained by stereomicroscopy, confocal microscopy and scanning electron microscopy revealed changes in colour and breakdown of the surface of pellets.

Insights into the magnitude and spatial distribution of plastic pellet pollution on the Scheldt riverbanks provide an estimate of the transportation patterns of the port of Antwerp’s plastic pellets. The easy sampling methodology provides opportunities to scale up or standardize monitoring campaigns, also in a non-marine environment, which could improve the knowledge about plastic pellet occurrence and its potential ecological risk worldwide.

How to cite: Diels, H., Town, R. M., and Blust, R.: Transport and Accumulation of Plastic Pellets along the Scheldt Estuary between Vlissingen (Netherlands) and Melle (Belgium), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10667, 2025.

EGU25-11917 | Orals | HS2.3.6 | Highlight

The effect of estuaries on plastic transport from river into the sea 

Tim van Emmerik, Eline Zweers, Daniel González-Fernández, and Silke Tas

Rivers play an important role in the global distribution of plastic pollution. Plastics are both retained within river systems, and emitted into the ocean. The net transport of plastic from rivers into the sea is determined by the transport processes within the estuary, which connect the freshwater and marine environments. Estuarine plastic transport and retention dynamics are the combined effect of tidal dynamics, freshwater discharge, and river morphology. Despite its crucial position within the global plastic budget, the effect of estuaries on plastic transport from rivers into the ocean remain unresolved. In this presentation, we provide an overview of estuarine plastic transport and retention dynamics across rivers in Europe and Asia. We extended a simple method [1] to estimate the net transport per tidal cycle, based on surface plastic observations, plastic concentration measurements, and modelled river discharge. Net plastic transport varies strongly with considered time scale, ranging from a single tidal cycle to a full year. Furthermore, we show net transport is impacted by the strength of the tidal dynamics, freshwater discharge, level of plastic pollution, and other river characteristics. Our results demonstrate across timescales, only a limited portion of river plastic pollution may exported into the ocean. The remainder is hypothesized to accumulate on riverbanks, in vegetation, and at other elements within the riverscape [2]. During spring tides and limited freshwater discharge, the net plastic export can be negative, transporting more items from the sea into the estuary. These findings are in line with recent observational evidence of high plastic retention in rivers, and limited net transport from rivers into the sea [3]. This presentation aims to contribute to a better understanding of the global plastic flows from land to sea. Through better understanding the effect of estuaries on river plastic transport, we aim to contribute to improved monitoring, quantifying, and reduction of plastic pollution in the environment.

 

References

[1] Schreyers, L.J., et al. "River plastic transport affected by tidal dynamics." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 28.3 (2024): 589-610.

[2] van Emmerik, T.H.M., et al. "Rivers as plastic reservoirs." Frontiers in Water 3 (2022): 786936.

[3] Lotcheris, R.A., et al. "Plastic does not simply flow into the sea: River transport dynamics affected by tides and floating plants." Environmental Pollution 345 (2024): 123524.

How to cite: van Emmerik, T., Zweers, E., González-Fernández, D., and Tas, S.: The effect of estuaries on plastic transport from river into the sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11917, 2025.

EGU25-12102 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Plastics in an urbanizing world: sustainable strategies for rivers and seas 

Maryna Strokal, Mirjam P. Bak, Yutong Guo, Tolga Ayeri, and Ilaria Micella

Plastics are part of our daily life. As a result, macro- and microplastics are found in many rivers and seas worldwide. Microplastics often originate in water systems from personal care products, household dust, laundry, and car tire wear. Macroplastics such as bottles, litter, and plastic bags are not often managed properly, resulting in water systems. Macroplastics can also be the secondary source of microplastics in waters, which may even increase pollution levels. It becomes more difficult to stop the use of plastics in our activities despite some promising efforts (e.g., the increased availability of reusable products). In addition, with ongoing urbanization, more plastics are expected in the waters. Furthermore, plastics have connections to more than five Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as food security (SDG2; e.g., plastic mulching as a pollution source), sustainable sanitation (SDG6; e.g., better treatment leading to less microplastics in waters from sewage), sustainable cities (SDG11; e.g., more microplastics from car tire wear and sewage), responsible consumptions (SDG12; e.g. control waste generation) and climate change (SDG13; e.g., more floods leading to more plastics in waters), etc. This opens opportunities to explore sustainable strategies to reduce plastics in rivers and seas to increase the benefits for other SDGs. In this study, we model the effects of sustainable strategies on reducing future macro- and microplastics in rivers and seas in the 21st century under the urbanization trends. For this, we use the MARINA-Plastics model, developed and evaluated in our earlier studies1-3. Here, we integrate insights on the effects of the combined sewage connections and treatment and their individual effects on microplastic reductions in rivers up to 2100 worldwide1-2. For seas, we utilize the insights of the sustainable strategies for both macro- and microplastics in the future3. For rivers, our results for microplastic reduction differ over time worldwide. By 2030, the model suggests that controlling waste generation (e.g., less use of microplastics in personal care products) may be more effective in reducing microplastics than better sanitation (more sewage connections plus better wastewater treatment). In contrast, better sanitation seems more effective in reducing microplastic pollution by 2100. For seas globally, microplastics are expected to double by 2100 in an unsustainable scenario with increased urbanization. This pollution is projected to be reduced to below the level of 2010 when assuming the implementation of sustainable strategies such as better treatment. For macroplastics, increases are somewhat projected between 2010 and 2100 in an unsustainable scenario whereas large reductions are projected in a sustainable scenario by 2100. In all our scenarios, many European, North American, and Asian rivers were pollution hotspots in 2010, mainly due to microplastics. In an urbanizing future, many African rivers may become new plastic pollution hotspots mainly as a result of both microplastics (from urbanization activities) and macroplastics (from increasing waste production). Sustainable strategies for these hotspots should be combined to reduce plastic pollution. These insights could support SDGs.           

1: Ayeri et al., (2024) 10.1021/acs.est.4c07730

2: Guo et al., (2024) 10.1002/sd.3279

3: Micella et al., (2024) 10.1029/2024EF004712

How to cite: Strokal, M., Bak, M. P., Guo, Y., Ayeri, T., and Micella, I.: Plastics in an urbanizing world: sustainable strategies for rivers and seas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12102, 2025.

EGU25-13102 | Orals | HS2.3.6

A Continuous Approach to Macrolitter Monitoring in Large River Systems: Identifying Sources, Drivers, and Quantities 

Katharina Höreth, Nina Gnann, Nicolas Schweigert, Mariele Evers, Thomas A. Ternes, and Leandra Hamann

Anthropogenic macrolitter (ML) in rivers affects ecosystems and human health. A custom-built, interception-based litter trap (LT) passively collected ML in the Rhine River, one of Europe’s largest river watersheds, continuously, over a one year-long sampling period. The LT, anchored in Cologne, captures floating ML >4.24 cm without disturbing shipping traffic. This location covers 90% of the rivers total length, including the rivers tributaries. By systematically covering the discharge range of an entire year that did not included extreme floods, the dataset, with information on ML composition and sources, was correlated with five environmental factors. Plastics made up the largest share of ML among all 10 monitored material types, which may affect water quality. The detailed monitoring revealed 145 EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive ML list (MSFD list) categories in the Rhine. Untraceable items account for 36.0% of the total ML, with fragments making up 30.6%. The sources of 64.0% of ML were identified, with private consumers responsible for the largest share (56.0%) of land-based ML. Single-use items contribute 40.4%. Based on the continuous data, discharge and precipitation affect riverine ML numbers. A linear extrapolation scenario estimates that around 53,000 ML items are transported in the Rhine at Cologne every day.

How to cite: Höreth, K., Gnann, N., Schweigert, N., Evers, M., Ternes, T. A., and Hamann, L.: A Continuous Approach to Macrolitter Monitoring in Large River Systems: Identifying Sources, Drivers, and Quantities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13102, 2025.

EGU25-15263 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Establishing a European baseline for plastic accumulation and transport in rivers 

Miranda Stibora, Tim H.M. van Emmerik, Kryss Waldschläger, Daniel González-Fernández, and Albrecht Weerts

Rivers play a key role in the transport and accumulation of plastic waste in the environment. Given the durability of plastic waste and the continuation of plastic production, the accumulation of plastic in rivers is predicted to continue to increase. The goal of our research is to establish a baseline for micro- and macroplastic pollution in European rivers. To do this, we have developed a new modelling framework to simulate a European, high resolution (3 arc second), spatially probabilistic model for micro- and macroplastic transport.

While previous plastic transport models focus on quantifying plastic export to sea, we hypothesise that most plastic pollution does not reach the river outlet in the short term. This work, therefore, focuses specifically at shifting the emphasis on modelling plastic export to providing a novel outlook on the accumulation of micro- and macroplastic pollution on riverbanks and in the riverbed sediment. Our model uses the latest insights on plastic transport processes, accounting separately for both micro- and macroplastics. The model uses meteorological variables (wind and surface runoff) and land-use variables (land friction and slope) to estimate the transport of plastic from its on-land source to the river system. We use discharge, river width, riverbank friction and the presence of artificial structures, to simulate the transport of plastic in the river. An increase in the availability of plastic measurements in European rivers, allows us to provide a European specific plastic transport model for micro- and macroplastic pollution. Observed micro- and macroplastic export values, including those collected by the European RIMMEL project for floating macroplastic, were used to calibrate the model (González-Fernández et al., 2021). By accounting for the accumulated and transported plastic pollution, our model will provide a revised estimation of the spatial distribution of plastic litter in all European rivers, facilitating the implementation of tailored mitigation measures.

 

Reference:

González-Fernández, D., Cózar, A., Hanke, G., Viejo, J., Morales-Caselles, C., Bakiu, R., Barceló, D., Bessa, F., Bruge, A., & Cabrera, M. (2021). Floating macrolitter leaked from Europe into the ocean. Nature Sustainability, 4(6), 474-483.

How to cite: Stibora, M., van Emmerik, T. H. M., Waldschläger, K., González-Fernández, D., and Weerts, A.: Establishing a European baseline for plastic accumulation and transport in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15263, 2025.

EGU25-16251 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.6

The role of dams as sources and sinks of plastics in global rivers 

Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás, Tim van Emmerik, Miguel J. Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, and Miranda Stibora

The late 20th century witnessed a sharp proliferation in the construction of dams and in-stream barriers to address the rising global demands for urban supply, energy, and food production. Nowadays, around 16% of all global annual river discharge is regulated by approximately 58,700 large dams (>3 hm3 storage capacity) with a global storage capacity of 7,000-8,300 km3. While essential for food security and socioeconomic development, dams impose significant trade-offs by fragmenting river systems, disrupting fluvial regimes, trapping sediments and altering water quality in impounded areas. In the last decade, plastic pollution in freshwater and marine environments has garnered growing scientific attention. While extensive research has been conducted in riverine and marine environments, studies on plastic contamination in reservoir-dam systems remains scarce due to the logistical and hydrological complexities involved in the study of these systems. This work aims to provide insights into the influence of reservoir-dam systems and their operational regime on the fate of plastic pollution. We propose a conceptual model of the dynamics and hydrosedimentary processes of micro- and macroplastics within hydropower, water supply and flood control reservoirs. This is complemented with a comprehensive review of 43 research articles focused on microplastic pollution in reservoirs published between 2015 and 2024 covering up to 62 large reservoir-dam systems worldwide with an average storage capacity of 3.2 hm3, of which 62% belong to cascading dam schemes. The meta-analysis evidenced the pervasiveness of plastic pollution. Microplastics were detected in water and sediments from all studies, including the impounded regions and the upstream and downstream sections of the reservoirs. Microplastics concentration within the set of reservoirs exhibits considerable heterogeneity, with preliminary values ranging from very low to highly polluted levels (3 to 87,000 MPs/m³ in water and 20-20,070 MPs/kg in sediments). Such values are highly conditioned by land use, topography, seasonal rainfall patterns and sampling periods and the different settling rates of microplastics among others. The concentration of plastics decreases by several orders of magnitude downstream of dams in a significant proportion of case studies (65%), particularly in cascading dam systems, suggesting that reservoirs act primarily as key sinks for plastics due to their low-energy hydrodynamics. This is highly relevant for the formulation of transport models estimating plastic input to the ocean. However, growing evidence indicates that water management operations can significantly accelerate the transport of plastics towards downstream regions. Water discharge and sediment flushing operations can release substantial quantities of low-density plastics and microfibers downstream, thereby accelerating their flux to estuaries. Similarly, reservoirs that convey water directly to purification plants, irrigation canals or pumping stations can contribute to the removal of plastics from the fluvial system. These findings are particularly important for understanding the role of reservoir regulation in mediating plastic transport from inland water systems to the ocean, as well as for developing more effective strategies to mitigate microplastic contamination.

How to cite: Vélez-Nicolás, M., van Emmerik, T., Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, M. J., and Stibora, M.: The role of dams as sources and sinks of plastics in global rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16251, 2025.

EGU25-16965 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Methodological investigations and understanding of the transfer dynamics of microplastics in the River Seine 

Khadija Diop, Guilherme Calabro Souza, Johnny Gasperi, Bruno Tassin, and Rachid Dris

Urban areas discharge significant quantities of microplastics (MPs) into the environment. In rivers the flux of MPs is poorly estimated due to metrological and analytical limitations as well as a poor assessment of the hydrodynamic role. These limitations are mainly related to the sampling devices (e.g, net or pumping samplers) which do not allow to produce representative data in spatial and temporal scales, as, the sampling is executed at one specific location in the water column and for short duration. To address these issues, this project proposes to improve current methods for quantifying MPs and understand their dynamics across various river spatio-temporal scales. A passive sampler was adapted for MP studies and the first experiment to be carried out is focusing on assessing spatio-temporal variability in a river located upstream of the Paris metropolitan area. The device will be placed within the water column of the Seine river (France) at different distances from the shore. The samples will a pre-treatment protocol: organic matter digestion and density separation. Analysis will be executed using micro Fourrier Transform Infra-Red. Specially for this project, the uncertainties will be accessed by comparing two different analytical devices (Nicolet - Thermo-Fischer and Spotlight 4000 - Perkin Elmer). In parallel we will quantify and characterise the total suspended solids for all samples. These approaches will give insights in MP dynamics within the water column over a year allowing to provide a fine temporal variation of the MPs flux in the Seine river and its associated uncertainties. Additionally, the aim would be to establish whether total suspended solids could be used as a reliable proxy for following MPs dynamics.

How to cite: Diop, K., Calabro Souza, G., Gasperi, J., Tassin, B., and Dris, R.: Methodological investigations and understanding of the transfer dynamics of microplastics in the River Seine, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16965, 2025.

EGU25-17050 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

A Lagrangian model for microplastics transport in SERGHEI 

Pablo Vallés, Mario Morales-Hernández, Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Volker Roeber, and Pilar García-Navarro

The transport of objects by water flows, particularly in rivers, plays a critical role in natural and environmental disasters, from the movement of vehicles and large objects during floods to the pervasive distribution of pollutants such as macroplastics or microplastics. Recent studies highlight alarming concentrations of microplastics in freshwater systems and even domestic water sources, posing a significant threat to public health due to potential ingestion and associated health risks for humans and animals. Understanding and mitigating these hazards require advanced mathematical modeling and computational solutions capable of capturing the complexity of transport dynamics and environmental interactions.

This work presents the development and integration of a Lagrangian model to study the spatial and temporal evolution of microplastics transport in water flows. Material elements representing microplastic particles are modeled as discrete entities, whose transport is driven by hydrodynamic forces computed using physical coefficients, i.e. a kinematic approach. The model is driven by an Eulerian framework based on the nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (SWE), which govern the fluid flow dynamics. This approach offers a robust basis to compute flow evolution while providing detailed insights into particle transport mechanisms.

The new Lagrangian Particle Tracking module (LPT) is integrated into the SERGHEI (Simulation Environment for Geomorphology, Hydrodynamics and Ecohydrology in Integrated form) model. SERGHEI facilitates comprehensive investigations into particle dynamics by accounting for key processes such as advection and dispersion, and those unique to microplastic transport such as deposition, flotation, degradation, and biofouling. The microplastic model provides valuable information on the behavior of microplastics in rivers and hydrological regions, which facilitates the identification of possible solutions to reduce their concentrations. The use of a 2D hydrodynamic model offers greater computational efficiency compared to other models based on 3D hydrodynamic approaches. This efficiency is enhanced by the implementation of both microplastic and hydrodynamic models in a high-performance computing (HPC) framework, allowing realistic simulations of complex scenarios. Moreover, the integration of processes specific to microplastic transport ensures realistic time evolution of particle positions. However, further experiments are essential to validate, refine and improve the accuracy of the model. Future work will extend the model to simulate larger debris, including vehicles, waste containers, and boulders, thus broadening its applicability for environmental risk assessment.

How to cite: Vallés, P., Morales-Hernández, M., Caviedes-Voullième, D., Roeber, V., and García-Navarro, P.: A Lagrangian model for microplastics transport in SERGHEI, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17050, 2025.

Pollution of the marine environment by plastic is an ever-growing problem. One mayor source of coceanic plastic are rivers and other waterways, and their pollution has an influence on riverine and marine environments. 

The Ocean Cleanup aims to reduce this harm by, among other things, closing the tap. To be able to tackle this task, it is important to know when and where the plastic is entering the oceans, so that targeted and efficient action can be taken. A crucial step therefore is understanding the drivers of riverine plastic transport on a global scale. We approach this problem with a global probabilistic river model.  

Previous iterations relied on discharge to scale the in-river transport. Studies have since indicated that discharge might not be a good predictor of plastic transport for a wide range of rivers. Thus, the latest version now includes the influence of velocity by using terrain slope as a proxy, which allows us to investigate its influence  on a global and local scale. 

First results show that including slope in the formulation impacts the seasonal variation of the calculated plastic transport. The most interesting difference, however, is how different types of rivers contribute to the total emissions. So is the relative influence of large and shallow catchments decreased compared to results of the previous model, while the relative contribution of steep catchments increased.  

This tool will later be finetuned by comparing it to the analysis of a large-scale drifter field study along the Amazon, Mekong and Motagua Rivers. With this we strive to gain more detailed insight into this complex topic. 

How to cite: Ebner, R., Mani, T., and Lebreton, L.: The influence of velocity on plastic transport in rivers – Improving a global river model to map riverine plastic emissions into the marine environment , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17210, 2025.

EGU25-18363 | ECS | Orals | HS2.3.6

Flood type drives river-scale macroplastic deposition 

Louise Schreyers, Rahel Hauk, Nicholas Wallerstein, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Martine van der Ploeg, and Tim van Emmerik

Plastic pollution is considered a global environmental challenge, prompting international regulation efforts such as the UN plastic treaty, a global initiative aimed at addressing the escalating plastic pollution crisis. Rivers with high connectivity to urban areas are particularly exposed to macroplastic pollution. Floods amplify macroplastic abundance in rivers by mobilizing previously deposited, and introducing new macroplastics. Recent observations suggest most of the flood-driven macroplastic transport is either exported downstream or stored within rivers. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of the fate of these mobilised macroplastics remains unresolved.

We assessed flood impact on macroplastic deposition along river floodplains, using data from fifteen events — five floods and ten non-flood conditions — across two Dutch rivers (the IJssel and Meuse). We quantified riverbank macroplastic concentrations under both non-flood and flood conditions, and floodplain macroplastic concentrations under flood conditions. Non-flood conditions were defined as events with return periods below bankfull discharge, while floods exceeded this threshold (1.5-year return period). We estimated riverbank macroplastic concentrations following five floods of varying magnitudes, with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years. We attributed macroplastic concentrations to the main drivers of macroplastic deposition, using a parsimonious modelling approach. We considered ten factors, including river and floodplain characteristics, and proximity to potential macroplastic sources. Similar to sediment and large wood deposition, the longitudinal distribution of macroplastic along floodplains is likely influenced by the balance between supply and deposition factors, which determines floodplain capacity in storing macroplastics.

We found that higher flood return periods increased macroplastic deposition, with the two largest floods depositing two to three times more macroplastic than non-flood conditions. In addition, deposition mechanisms varied by flood type. Obstruction-based deposition dominated during an extreme summer flood (summer 2021 in the Meuse), when macroplastics mainly accumulated in inundated trees. Low-energy deposition prevailed during a long winter flood (winter 2024 in the IJssel), with high macroplastic concentrations found in wide floodplain sections where flow velocities decreased.

The identified typologies in floodplain macroplastic deposition patterns suggest varying spatial distribution patterns within the floodplains. These can help to develop interventions to reduce the floodplain macroplastic legacy. Due to its parsimonious nature, our modeling approach can be applied to other rivers and flood events. We anticipate that this may contribute to better understanding of the impact of floods on plastic pollution.

How to cite: Schreyers, L., Hauk, R., Wallerstein, N., Teuling, A. J., Uijlenhoet, R., van der Ploeg, M., and van Emmerik, T.: Flood type drives river-scale macroplastic deposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18363, 2025.

EGU25-18892 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Plastics in estuaries: estimating an emission budget, transport and fate of plastics through high resolution model simulations 

Gabriela Escobar-Sánchez, Bruna de Ramos, Xaver Lange, Sarah Piehl, Mirco Haseler, and Gerald Schernewski

Estuaries account for 88% of the global coastline and act as filters for water, sediments and particles (Dürr et al. 2011) and may act as important pathways of plastic pollution. Recent studies suggested that rivers can contribute between 1.15 – 2.41 million tons of plastic per year globally (Lebreton et al. 2017) or 307 and 925 million items per year from Europe alone (Gonzalez-Fernández et al. 2021). However, the processes of transport and retention at rivers, estuaries and beaches are still poorly understood. Recent results from Schernewski et al. (2024) showed that floating plastics released at a city harbor at the beginning of the Warnow estuary (Germany) were trapped in reeds or beaches within 6 days, with only 0.4% transported to the Baltic Sea (11 km) during storms, while sinking plastics accumulated near the source during calm winds (7 m/s) but were resuspended and transported up to 4 km away during storms (< 20 m/s). However, this study considered only one emission location and there is still a knowledge gap regarding the role of item size and density, as well as the emission locations from multiple litter sources, and thereby the retention potential at coastlines and seafloor.

In this study, we investigate the emission, transport and retention of plastics in the Warnow estuary, Germany, an exemplary estuary exposed to urban areas, harbor activities, tourism and other land-uses, using a highly resolved 3D hydrodynamic model of 20 m and a Lagrangian particle tracking approach using the Ocean Parcels framework. Emission source locations were defined with GIS. First simulations considered the emission of particles from the tourism and recreation sector over 10-days, with 1000 particles released per point. The results showed for emission sources closer to the estuary opening and the beach, 68% of particles were retained, whereas for particles released at the harbor and urban area (beginning of the estuary), 92% were trapped on beaches or reed belts, with the majority beaching within the first 2 days only 3.5 km away from the source. These results already indicate that the emission of plastics may be overestimated since few studies take into account emission location and retention dynamics.

Building upon these learnings we aim to i) provide a detailed emission budget for different sources of plastics at the Warnow estuary and ii) assess the influence of item size and density in the transport and retention of particles. This high resolution model together with the emission approach shall provide a more comprehensive assessment of emission, transport and accumulation of plastics and contribute to the understanding of the plastic budget at other estuaries as well as for the elaboration of effective mitigation strategies based on specific accumulation hotspots and emission sources.

How to cite: Escobar-Sánchez, G., de Ramos, B., Lange, X., Piehl, S., Haseler, M., and Schernewski, G.: Plastics in estuaries: estimating an emission budget, transport and fate of plastics through high resolution model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18892, 2025.

EGU25-19776 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Large-scale remote monitoring of riverine litter using drones and bridge-mounted cameras.  

Liesbeth De Keukelaere, Robrecht Moelans, and Arne Van Overloop

The INSPIRE Horizon Europe project aims to combat plastic pollution in rivers by deploying 20 scalable technologies designed to prevent and remove litter. These innovative solutions will be demonstrated across six rivers in Europe. A key component of the project involves monitoring plastic pollution in the rivers and on their banks to establish a baseline and assess the effectiveness of the implemented technologies.

One of the monitoring solutions introduced is a camera- and drone-based system for tracking plastic flux in the rivers and measuring macroplastic densities on riverbanks. The fixed camera system utilizes a series of Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) surveillance cameras, equipped with protective housing and real-time data links. These autonomous cameras covering the full width of the river, continuously upload data to the cloud, providing uninterrupted monitoring. In addition, the drone data in collected along the riverbanks using high-resolution RGB - camera.

Robust machine learning models, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and advanced pre-trained foundation models like Segment Anything, are employed for litter detection and characterization. Furthermore, innovative approaches are being explored to transform camera-based plastic detections into plastic flux measurements. These methods leverage feature detection techniques such as Faster R-CNN, pretrained on ImageNet and further fine-tuned for this purpose, combined with feature matching algorithms like ResNet and auxiliary data integration.

The presentation will cover preliminary findings from fixed camera systems installed on Belgium’s Temse Bridge, as well as drone data collected along the Scheldt riverbank (BE) and in the Londenhaven area of the Port of Rotterdam (NL). 

How to cite: De Keukelaere, L., Moelans, R., and Van Overloop, A.: Large-scale remote monitoring of riverine litter using drones and bridge-mounted cameras. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19776, 2025.

EGU25-21764 | Posters on site | HS2.3.6

Macroplastics in the Ishëm River: Causes, Impacts, and Strategies for Transforming One of Europe’s Most Polluted Rivers 

Sebastian Pessenlehner, Laura Gjyli, Sara Selamaj, Fundime Miri, Jerina Kolitari, Shkëlqim Fortuzi, and Marcel Liedermann

Today rivers are known as the primary transport routes for plastic from continental to marine ecosystems. Although plastic pollution in aquatic environments poses a significant environmental threat, impacting both human health and ecosystems, knowledge about the distribution patterns, sources, and transport mechanisms of plastic in rivers remains limited. Through a collaboration between Albanian and Austrian research institutions, significant steps were taken to investigate the origins and pathways of floating and untethered macroplastics in the Ishëm River — one of the most polluted rivers in Europe — and to highlight the extent of plastic pollution in Albanian rivers.

The project’s objectives included implementing a combined measurement approach, utilizing both net-sampling and particle counting, to establish a data-based macroplastic transport assessment and identify major sources of plastic pollution. Additionally, the project focuses on building knowledge for sustainable river cleanup, providing globally relevant insights, and addressing the critical pollution levels in the Ishëm River.

Massive amounts of macroplastics pollute the Ishëm River delta and are carried as far as the Italian coast (over 150 km), as evidenced by labeled debris. Repeated cleanup campaigns by Albanian scientists and numerous stakeholders, collecting up to 400 bags of waste per action, have shown only temporary success, as plastic returns related to active waste disposal into rivers and mobilization after hydrological events. Preventing plastic from entering the river and intercepting it earlier in its course are urgent priorities. The project identified poorly functioning waste management systems and widespread misconceptions — such as the belief that rivers naturally dispose of waste — as key contributors to the pollution. To address these issues, the project developed strategies for long-term improvement, including establishing a lasting cooperation network, capacity-building initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns. Generating scientific data, furthermore, is essential to quantify pollution levels and identify responsibilities by assessing main sources of plastic waste. These efforts contribute to the creation of sustainable recycling programs and set the foundation for transforming the Ishëm River from one of Europe’s most polluted waterways into a restored ecosystem.

How to cite: Pessenlehner, S., Gjyli, L., Selamaj, S., Miri, F., Kolitari, J., Fortuzi, S., and Liedermann, M.: Macroplastics in the Ishëm River: Causes, Impacts, and Strategies for Transforming One of Europe’s Most Polluted Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21764, 2025.

HS2.4 – Hydrologic variability and change at multiple scales

EGU25-550 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Projected Changes in the Euro-Mediterranean Hydrological Extremes 

Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Alessandro Anav, and Francesco Dottori

Recent extreme hydrological events in the Euro-Mediterranean region have highlighted the urgent need for improved understanding and prediction of floods and droughts. Catastrophic floods, such as those in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, have resulted in significant socioeconomic losses. More recently, unprecedented flooding in Valencia on October 29th underscores the increasing unpredictability and intensity of such events. Concurrently, Northern Africa has experienced severe, prolonged droughts over the past six years, with southern and eastern Europe facing similar challenges marked by persistent drought conditions and critical water shortages, leading to exacerbated soil moisture deficits and stressed vegetation. While the focus has largely remained on short-term meteorological drought forecasting, many significant impacts—ranging from public water supply to hydropower production—are closely tied to hydrological droughts. Understanding future variations in both flood and drought conditions is then essential for developing robust defence strategies and ensuring resilient infrastructure across the region.

This study investigates the impact of climate change on future hydrological extremes over the Med-CORDEX region. We utilized the ENEA-REG regional coupled model, which downscales historical and CMIP6 scenario simulations (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR global model, to drive the CaMa-Flood River Hydrodynamics model for streamflow and river flood simulations. ENEA-REG integrates a coupled atmosphere (WRF) and ocean (MITgcm) components, which enhance our ability to capture complex interactions between sea surface temperatures and extreme hydrological events. Preliminary results indicate notable spatial variability in future flood and drought hazards. Considering floods, changes in their extent, duration, and high-flow frequencies (20-year and 50-year events) suggest a decrease in magnitude in eastern Mediterranean basins under SSP5-8.5, while Spanish northern (Ebro, Duero, Tajo) and southern (Guadalquivir and Andalusian) hydrographic basins, the Po River basin, together with UK and the north of Europe show increases. For droughts, the analysis focuses on changes in magnitude, duration, and trends in streamflow and streamflow drought index, highlighting critical vulnerabilities across the region. These findings emphasize the need for targeted adaptation strategies in response to evolving hydrological extremes.

How to cite: Hamitouche, M., Fosser, G., Anav, A., and Dottori, F.: Projected Changes in the Euro-Mediterranean Hydrological Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-550, 2025.

EGU25-727 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Projected flash drought evolution across Europe at different global warming levels  

Devvrat Yadav, Rohini Kumar, Jignesh Shah, Martin Hanel, and Oldrich Rakovec

Flash Droughts characterized by their rapid onset and development are a growing concern because of the threats it poses to agriculture and ecosystems (O and Park, 2023) caused by the rapid decline in soil moisture. Despite that little is known about how they will develop under different warming levels.  

This study aims to bridge that gap in our understanding of flash drought development by examining the frequency and extent of flash droughts across Europe under 1.0°C, 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels relative to pre-industrial time. This study uses mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) (Samaniego et al., 2010; Kumar et al, 2013) to simulate soil moisture using the data from bias corrected climate projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016). Flash droughts are identified using percentiles-based criteria detecting rapid decline in soil moisture content (Shah et al., 2022) 

Results indicate the area under flash droughts are expected to increase by 50% at 3°C warming compared to 1°C in the entire Europe with the effect being more prominent in the Northern parts of Europe going as high as three times at 3°C compared to 1°C. Frequency of such events is expected to double as the climate heats up from 1 °C to 3 °C, with the effects again getting reflected more in the Northern region of the Europe and diminishing as we move down South towards the Mediterranean. Results also indicate that areas such as France, Spain and Norway which were already facing flash droughts historically are expected to have more such events with new areas also getting affected thus making the event more widespread.  

These findings indicate the effect of climate change and how it can affect the agricultural systems and the need for proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the effects. 

Keywords: Flash drought, mHM, CMIP6, Warming levels, soil moisture, pre-industrial 

Kumar, R., Samaniego, L. and Attinger, S., 2013. Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations. Water Resources Research, 49(1), pp.360-379. 

O, S., Park, S.K., 2023. Flash drought drives rapid vegetation stress in arid regions in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 014028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acae3a 

O’Neill, B.C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D.P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G.A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., Sanderson, B.M., 2016. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 

Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Attinger, S., 2010. Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale. Water Resour. Res. 46. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007327 

Shah, J., Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Samaniego, L., Mishra, V., Hanel, M., Hinz, C., Kumar, R., 2022. Increasing footprint of climate warming on flash droughts occurrence in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 064017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6888 

How to cite: Yadav, D., Kumar, R., Shah, J., Hanel, M., and Rakovec, O.: Projected flash drought evolution across Europe at different global warming levels , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-727, 2025.

EGU25-760 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Concurrent Hydro-climate Drought Extremes in Eastern India Under Climate Change Scenarios 

Sushree Swagatika Swain, Ashok Mishra, and Chandranath Chatterjee

The interplay of hydro-climate extremes poses critical challenges to water resource management, particularly in agriculture-dominated regions where climate variability significantly affects crop production, irrigation demands, and overall agricultural sustainability. The Eastern India river basins, including the Brahmani and Baitarani, are significantly dependent on monsoonal rainfall for irrigation, drinking water, and hydroelectric power generation, making them vital for analyzing concurrent hydro-climate drought extremes. This study investigates the concurring dynamics of hydro-climate droughts driven by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and declining river flows. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Temperature Index (STI), and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) are employed to analyze precipitation, temperature, and runoff extremes, focusing on dry-wet dynamics within the consecutive seasons. This analysis is conducted using historical data (1979–2018) and future climate projections (2021–2060) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Additionally, we have analyzed trends in precipitation and temperature variability alongside their influence on runoff. Our findings reveal that the frequency and intensity of concurrent hydro-climate drought events are projected to increase within the seasons, with significant impacts on the monsoon season, including reduced rainfall, extended dry spells, and depleted runoff. These changes exacerbate water scarcity and heighten agricultural vulnerabilities in the region. The interconnected nature of these extremes highlights the need for integrated water resource management strategies that prioritize climate resilience. This research emphasizes the importance of adaptive measures to mitigate the socio-economic impacts of hydro-climate droughts in Eastern India, ensuring the sustainability of ecosystems and livelihoods in the face of an uncertain future climate.

How to cite: Swain, S. S., Mishra, A., and Chatterjee, C.: Concurrent Hydro-climate Drought Extremes in Eastern India Under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-760, 2025.

Drought is a pervasive and destructive natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on various sectors that could threaten human lives. For effective mitigation and management, especially under global warming conditions, reliable means of assessing droughts are vitally important for precise monitoring and assessment. This study examines the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Jordan, a region prone to water scarcity and climate-related vulnerabilities. First, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of drought simulation capabilities using a COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) multi-domain set consisting of 21 model simulations from three domains: Africa (AFR), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and South Asia (WAS). Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which accounts for both precipitation and temperature, we assess the models' performance against historical data (1976-2005) from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This validation identifies a subset of model simulations that reliably generate SPEI values for Jordan. Building on these validated models, we then investigate future drought conditions for the end of the twenty-first century (2070-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Projected changes reveal a significant rise in temperature and a drying tendency, with anticipated reductions in precipitation. Future drought characteristics indicate a substantial increase in severity, with decreasing frequency but increasing duration, and an expanding spatial extent of drought conditions. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for drought monitoring and highlight the urgent need for proactive mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against the projected intensification of drought conditions in Jordan. These findings serve as an early warning for policymakers and stakeholders to establish efficient plans for addressing the increasing challenges posed by drought in the region and offer insights into evaluating CORDEX models for drought-related studies in other regions.

How to cite: Alkhasoneh, H. and Rowe, C.: Climate Change and Drought in Jordan: A Comprehensive Analysis Using CORDEX Regional Climate Model Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-902, 2025.

EGU25-972 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Assessing the uncertainty in parameter estimation of Log Pearson type III Distribution 

Amit Singh and Sagar Chavan

Design flood quantile estimation at critical locations in a river basin is essential for various hydrological applications. Regional flood frequency analysis using the L-moment-based approach offers a robust and efficient method for estimating flood quantiles at ungauged and sparsely gauged sites. The literature suggests that LH moments—higher probability-weighted moments—place greater emphasis on the tail of the distribution. This study explores the performance of the LH-moment-based approach for regions modeled using the Log Pearson Type III (LP-III) distribution, applying techniques such as the method of moments, maximum likelihood estimation, L-moments (a special case of LH-moments), and LH-moment parameter estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted to assess the accuracy and reliability of these parameter estimation techniques for design flood estimation. The analysis was applied to four river basins in South India to evaluate the ability of the LP-III distribution to model annual maximum series across different climate zones (arid, temperate, and tropical). The findings have significant implications for flood risk management, infrastructure design, and policy-making, especially in regions undergoing rapid environmental changes. This research enhances the understanding of regional flood dynamics and provides a framework for more accurate flood risk assessments and improved management strategies.

How to cite: Singh, A. and Chavan, S.: Assessing the uncertainty in parameter estimation of Log Pearson type III Distribution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-972, 2025.

EGU25-1152 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Evaluating the effects of drought mitigation measures during floods 

Christopher Wittmann, Perry de Louw, Eva Schoonderwoerd, Vera Kingma, Ruben Dahm, Kees Peerdeman, and Ellis Penning

While nature-based drought mitigation measures (DMM), such as removing drainage and abstractions and raising stream bed levels, are a possible solution to combat droughts by targeting raised groundwater levels, they can also reduce the available storage capacity to buffer storm events, creating potential trade-offs with flood risk management objectives. However, the effects of floods and droughts are rarely assessed jointly. We demonstrate a coupled groundwater-surface water modeling approach in a shallow groundwater system of the Dutch sandy soils region that has shown vulnerability to droughts. We simulate the effects of DMM on both long-term averages of groundwater levels and short-term groundwater and surface water responses during heavy rainfall events. The DMM raise long-term summer groundwater levels, thereby compensating climate change induced summer groundwater storage deficits. However, during wetter winter months, groundwater levels are also raised significantly. As a result of reduced available flood storage capacity, peak streamflow increases following heavy winter rainfall events. We conclude that it is crucial to design and plan drought and flood mitigation strategies jointly. This also requires tailoring land management to prevalent environmental conditions. To this end, developing modeling approaches for a joint assessment of hydrological effects is key to inform the formulation of integrated strategies. 

How to cite: Wittmann, C., de Louw, P., Schoonderwoerd, E., Kingma, V., Dahm, R., Peerdeman, K., and Penning, E.: Evaluating the effects of drought mitigation measures during floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1152, 2025.

EGU25-1669 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Changes in wet and dry spell characteristics in Australian catchments 

Steven Thomas, Conrad Wasko, Danlu Guo, Ulrike Bende-Michl, and Murray Peel

Hydroclimate variability results in sequencing between wetter and drier periods at both day-to-day and longer timeframes. Variability at the day-to-day scale can result in sudden water surpluses or deficiencies resulting in extreme events such as floods and flash droughts. Longer-term variability, however, can significantly influence water security through the impact of droughts and reduced streamflow. Variability at both timescales poses significant challenges to water resources management, with follow-on impacts on local ecosystems and communities. In this study we investigate changes in day-to-day hydroclimate variability, focussing on the intermittency patterns of rainfall (wet and dry spells).

Our investigation, at the catchment scale, uses rainfall for 467 Hydrological Reference Stations (HRS) catchments from 1950-2022 across the Australian continent. We look at long-term trends in rainfall frequency, duration, and intensity characteristics at annual and seasonal timescales and break down our analysis by similar climatic regions. We find a clear trend towards more dry days per year across most catchments in Australia. Interestingly, there are no consistent trends in annual rainfall totals or annual mean dry spell length, despite the increase in the dry days per year. There are however consistent declining trends in annual mean and maximum wet spell lengths with shorter spells over ~80% and ~50% of catchments respectively, with the majority being in southern and eastern Australia. Northern Australia sees the opposite of this drying trend with fewer dry days per year and more intense rainfall during wet spells. Depending on the season, some regions are experiencing an increase in the number of wet spells, potentially suggesting there are changes to the dominant weather systems delivering rainfall to the region.

The presence of trends towards shorter wet spells and an increase in their frequency aligns with the change towards more episodic rainfall and highlights the need to further investigate both wet and dry spells concurrently. We conclude that wet and dry spell characteristics are changing and will continue to do so under the influence of climate change and need to be considered to manage water security across Australia.

How to cite: Thomas, S., Wasko, C., Guo, D., Bende-Michl, U., and Peel, M.: Changes in wet and dry spell characteristics in Australian catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1669, 2025.

The Lancang-Mekong River (LMR) Basin is highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, including floods, droughts, and their combinations, such as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation (DFAA). The impacts of climate change on these extremes and the efficacy of potential adaptation measures remain poorly understood. This study investigates these dynamics using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). It employs the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and the Regional Drought-Flood Abruptness Index (R-DFAI) alongside the Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed (THREW) model, integrated with a reservoir module. Results reveal that the LMR Basin, particularly its upstream regions, is projected to face heightened susceptibility to drought during the near future (2021–2060) and increased flood risks in the far future (2061–2100). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, DFAA risks escalate, especially downstream and during the wet season, whereas under SSP585, these risks decline. Reservoirs as a promising adaptation strategy can significantly mitigate extreme hydrological events and DFAA, particularly in regions with higher total reservoir storage. However, their efficacy in controlling downstream floods diminishes in the far future. Reservoir operations reduce DFAA’s intensity, limit multi-peak occurrences, shorten its monthly span, and alleviate risks during critical agricultural periods. These insights offer valuable guidance for effective water resource cooperative management across LMR Basin countries.

How to cite: Zhang, K. and Tian, F.: The mitigation of reservoirs on extreme hydrological events in Lancang-Mekong River Basin under changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2286, 2025.

EGU25-2315 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Streamflow Flash Droughts in Australia: Occurrence, Characteristics and Impacts 

Pallavi Goswami, Ailie Gallant, and Ulrike Bende-Michl

Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, are typically associated with rapid soil moisture depletion caused by insufficient rainfall and heightened evaporative stress. This study broadens the traditional impact-based definition of flash droughts to reveal their significant effects on water resources, specifically through streamflow flash drought events. By analysing perennial catchments across Australia, we identified instances of abrupt reductions in streamflow volumes over short periods. Remarkably, these events can arise from a range of antecedent conditions—wet, normal, or dry— and can potentially have damaging consequences. The severity of impacts varies non-linearly with catchment characteristics, with larger catchments often being more vulnerable. During the onset of these events, streamflow volumes typically decline by a median of 60%, underscoring the intensity of these events. Additionally, such events occur at an average frequency of two per decade across most regions. These findings emphasise the need to enhance the monitoring, forecasting, and management of these events to mitigate the adverse effects on water supply, agriculture, energy production, and other water-reliant sectors.

How to cite: Goswami, P., Gallant, A., and Bende-Michl, U.: Streamflow Flash Droughts in Australia: Occurrence, Characteristics and Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2315, 2025.

EGU25-2595 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Understanding the impact of precipitation and model uncertainties on extreme flood estimates 

Eleni Kritidou, Martina Kauzlaric, Marc Vis, Maria Staudinger, Jan Seibert, and Daniel Viviroli

Dealing with large uncertainties associated with estimates of extreme floods is a major challenge for risk assessment and mitigation. It is important to understand and quantify the potential sources of these uncertainties to reduce risk and support cost-effective and safe infrastructure design.

In this study, we employ a framework based on a hydrometeorological modeling chain with long continuous simulations to estimate extreme floods (Viviroli et al., 2022). The first element of the modeling chain is the multi-site stochastic weather generator GWEX, which focuses on intense precipitation events. GWEX generates long scenarios that force a bucket-type hydrological model (HBV), which simulates discharge time series. Lastly, a hydrologic routing model (RS Minerve) implements simplified representations of river channel hydraulics, floodplain inundations and regulated lakes.

The main objective of this contribution is to quantify the uncertainty arising from the weather generator and the hydrological model at different return levels, as these two factors are highly relevant for hydrological extremes. To this end, we employ two weather generator parameterizations: the first one is the default parameterization, which serves as a benchmark, whereas specific parameters are conditioned on weather types in the second one. Then, two hydrological model configurations with different response functions are utilized. Varying these elements of the modeling chain allows us to understand their impact on the extreme flood estimates by interpreting the resulting variability as uncertainty. We run our simulations for three representative HBV-model parameter sets to account for model parameter uncertainty. This modeling framework is applied to nine large catchments (> 450 km²) located in different regions of Switzerland to consider the influence of catchment characteristics. The last step of our methodology includes the decomposition of uncertainty in extreme flood estimates using an analysis of variance (ANOVA).

Our results suggest that the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary between the catchments. The dominant source of uncertainty may vary for different return periods ranging from 1 to 1000 years. These results highlight the challenge of generalizing a priori about the importance of the selected components contributing to the total uncertainty at the catchment scale, as physiographic catchment characteristics play a key role. Overall, this study sheds light on the role of uncertainties in a hydrometeorological modeling chain and will serve as a basis for follow-up studies related to hazard assessment, safety planning, and hydraulic engineering projects.

 

Reference:

Viviroli D, Sikorska-Senoner AE, Evin G, Staudinger M, Kauzlaric M, Chardon J, Favre AC, Hingray B, Nicolet G, Raynaud D, Seibert J, Weingartner R, Whealton C, 2022. Comprehensive space-time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(9), 2891–2920, doi:10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022

How to cite: Kritidou, E., Kauzlaric, M., Vis, M., Staudinger, M., Seibert, J., and Viviroli, D.: Understanding the impact of precipitation and model uncertainties on extreme flood estimates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2595, 2025.

EGU25-3052 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Low flow frequency analyses: A new approach integrating seasonality and multivariate characteristics of drought 

Fatemeh Firoozi, Johanenes Laimighofer, and Gregor Laaha

In this paper, we propose a new approach for multivariate drought frequency analysis. It combines extreme value statistics of magnitude, duration and deficit volume of annual streamflow drought events. Drought magnitude is represented by the annual minimum flow. It is modeled by the mixed distribution approach of Laaha (2023a) based on annual summer and winter minimum series, where possible seasonal correlations are modeled by a copula approach (Laaha 2023b). Duration and deficit volume of annual drought events are estimated by Yevjevich’s threshold level approach, using a constant threshold level. To this end, the dependence structure of magnitude (M), duration (D) and deficit volume (V) with seasonality characteristics is evaluated. The joint probability of occurrence of multiple drought characteristics is modeled using a Vine copula approach, thereby extending bivariate drought frequency analysis of Mirabbasi et al. (2012). The multivariate frequency model allows marginal and total frequencies or return periods of drought events to be calculated. We anticipate that the multivariate low-flow frequency analysis is more comprehensive, and thus more effective in capturing drought severity compared to the univariate analyses. We suggest that the method can be used for drought monitoring in various hydrological settings including strongly seasonal climates.

References:

Laaha, G., 2023a. A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis–Part 1: Concept, performance, and effect of seasonality. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(3), pp.689-701.

Laaha, G. 2023b. A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis–Part 2: Comparative assessment of a mixed probability vs. copula-based dependence framework. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(10), 2019-2034.

Mirabbasi, R., Fakheri-Fard, A. and Dinpashoh, Y., 2012. Bivariate drought frequency analysis using the copula method. Theoretical and applied climatology, 108, pp.191-206.

 

How to cite: Firoozi, F., Laimighofer, J., and Laaha, G.: Low flow frequency analyses: A new approach integrating seasonality and multivariate characteristics of drought, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3052, 2025.

The prediction of hydrological droughts in a non-stationary context poses major challenges. Understanding the drivers of drought fluctuations is crucial for developing effective adaptation and management strategies. This study addresses this issue by developing a two-step modelling approach using a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and a Multinomial Linear Regression model (MLR), with a bootstrap approach to assess uncertainty. Using HMM, we classify the low water level time series into Dry, Normal, and Wet years and assess the frequency of each class in the historical data. Dry years can be identified as hydrological droughts. To predict low-water level class transitions in a non-stationary context, we propose an MLR framework. With this, we estimate probabilities of low-water level class transitions by inputting external variables into the transition matrix estimates. Precipitation thresholds for annual minima are also derived, with uncertainties and sensitivities assessed via bootstrap resampling. Our framework was successfully applied to the Paraguay River basin (PRB), where long-term changes in hydrological variables are frequent. The HMM transition matrix reveals a long persistence of years in each water level class and an inhomogeneity between the two periods (1901-1960 and 1961-2024). The second period exhibits more extended runs of wet, dry, and non-dry years, suggesting a change in the driving dynamics. A multi-annual hydrological drought lasting for 13 years (1961-1973) was identified, followed by a stretch of 46 years (1974-2019) with no droughts in the study area. Simulations allowed estimates of probabilities of those persistent hydrological conditions at 21% and 4% probability, respectively. Precipitation is the primary predictor of regime shifts, but the class transition probabilities and precipitation thresholds are non-homogeneous and conditional on the current low-water level regime. Different precipitation thresholds were estimated conditioned on the current water levels: 1,040 mm for initiating a hydrological drought during a normal year and 1,180 mm to transition from a hydrological drought to normal conditions. The research advances non-stationary extreme event analysis by proposing an efficient new approach for non-stationary extreme event analysis. The approach is effective in estimating inhomogeneity in hydrological drought occurrence; identifying long persistence of hydrological drought episodes and their associated probabilities; defining precipitation thresholds that trigger drought occurrence conditioned on the current basin state; and revealing the importance of coupled drivers of low water level shifts.

How to cite: Suassuna Santos, M. and Slater, L.: Integrating Hidden Markov and Multinomial Models for Hydrological Drought Prediction under nonstationarity., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3323, 2025.

EGU25-3378 | Orals | HS2.4.1

From floods to droughts: Climate change impact on compounding streamflow flood and drought in Europe 

Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Tijmen Koenen, and Pilar Reija Zamora

Droughts and floods have large impacts on a wide range of sectors and their frequency is expected to increase in a warming climate. While droughts and floods individually have distinct impacts, the occurrence of compound flood and drought (CFD) events, or vice versa, can cause greater impacts than when these events occur in isolation. This study examines changes in the characteristics and return period of single flood and drought events, as well as changes in CFD characteristics, by analyzing daily streamflow data from the CWatM (CommunityWaterModel) model for four European rivers during both historical and future periods under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Floods and droughts were identified using threshold methods and CFD events were determined when floods and droughts occurred within a 7-month interval. Flood and drought characteristics were defined as flood/drought frequency, flood/drought duration, flood magnitude, flood volume, and drought volume. On the other hand, CFD characteristics were analyzed based on frequency, duration, transition time, and empirical compound severity index. Flood and low flow return periods were estimated based on Gumbel’s extreme value distribution. Results show that floods will generally become more frequent and severe under SSP1-2.6, whereas under SSP5-8.5, they will become less frequent but more severe. Drought severity is projected to increase substantially under both scenarios, though the frequency will vary across different basins. Changes in return periods of high- and low-flow events also vary greatly between basins, with more extreme both high and low flows in the Rhone basin. CFD events will be more frequent and severe in the Rhine and Rhone basins, while their frequency will decrease in the Danube and Tagus basins. Rivers with lower baseflow are expected to experience more frequent and severe CFD, due to more extreme variations in rainfall. The Rhone basin, in particular, will experience shorter transitions between flood and drought events, indicating that CFD will be most impacted by climate change.

How to cite: Sutanto, S. J., Koenen, T., and Zamora, P. R.: From floods to droughts: Climate change impact on compounding streamflow flood and drought in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3378, 2025.

EGU25-3954 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

A Transition from Precipitation- to Temperature-Dominated Drought in the Western United States 

Yizhou Zhuang, Rong Fu, Joel Lisonbee, Amanda Sheffield, Britt Parker, and Genoveva Deheza

While precipitation deficits have long been the primary driver of drought, our observational analysis shows that since the year 2000, rising surface temperature and the resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%) across the western US (WUS). This increase in evaporative demand, largely driven by human-caused climate change, is the main cause of the observed increase in drought severity and coverage. The unprecedented 2020–2022 WUS drought, which led to widespread water shortages and wildfires, exemplifies this shift in drought drivers, with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity. Climate model simulations corroborate this shift and project that, under the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), droughts like the 2020–2022 event will transition from being a very rare event (<0.1%) in the pre-2022 period to a 1-in-60-year event by mid-century (2040-2060) and to a 1-in-6-year event by the late 21st century (2080-2100). These projections highlight the urgent need for adaptation measures to mitigate the growing risk of severe drought in the WUS under a changing climate.  

How to cite: Zhuang, Y., Fu, R., Lisonbee, J., Sheffield, A., Parker, B., and Deheza, G.: A Transition from Precipitation- to Temperature-Dominated Drought in the Western United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3954, 2025.

EGU25-4334 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Flood situation on the rivers Morava and Danube in September 2024 and its impact on the groundwater level 

Samuel Radič, Ján Gavurník, and Valéria Slivová

In the second decade of September 2024, after a long-lasting above-average temperature period without widespread precipitation, an extraordinary precipitation event occurred, affecting mainly the west and northwest of Slovakia. Cumulative precipitation amounts ranged from 120 to 250 mm, locally significantly more on the windward sides of the mountains. Extraordinary high precipitation totals were also recorded in surrounding countries, especially in Austria, Czech Republic, Romania and southern Poland. This precipitation event resulted in a flood situation. We observed the highest level of flood activity on all hydro-prognostic profiles of the rivers Morava and Danube. Direct hydraulic interaction between surface water and groundwater in the Záhorská nížina Lowland, Žitný ostrov Island and areas along right bank of the Danube River has caused a significant increase of the groundwater level during the flood wave in these areas. Based on the measured data from the state groundwater monitoring network of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, we assessed the state of the groundwater level in the affected areas during the flood situation. We also identified and analyzed in more detail the areas where groundwater reached the terrain.

How to cite: Radič, S., Gavurník, J., and Slivová, V.: Flood situation on the rivers Morava and Danube in September 2024 and its impact on the groundwater level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4334, 2025.

A wide variety of processes controls characteristics of river flood events. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in understanding the emergence of extremes and support the detection and interpretation of their changes. We show observational evidences of considerable changes in the frequency of different flood generation processes in Europe in the past decades that are likely to manifest in the shifts in the dominant processes by the end of the century under high emission scenario. Furthermore, we show that we can use the information on different event generation processes for diagnosing limitations of conceptual hydrological models and deep learning-powered forecasting tools paving the way to their improvement. Our ongoing work on socio-economic impacts of floods generated by different processes indicates that their future shifts and the limitations of our state-of-the-art models might have dire consequences for the flood preparedness in Europe.

How to cite: Tarasova, L.: Flood generation processes – a tool for understanding hydrological changes and improving predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4518, 2025.

EGU25-4550 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Optimizing Impervious Surface Distribution for Enhanced Urban Flood Resilience 

Andam Mustafa, Michał Szydłowski, and Shuokr Qarani Aziz

Abstract: As urban populations grow and cities expand and develop, the likelihood of natural disasters, such as floods, increases accordingly. Urban centers and residential areas are highly susceptible to flooding. Flooding poses significant risks to urban areas, especially in regions vulnerable to climate change, where developing countries are disproportionately affected. In Erbil, the rapid expansion and urban development, particularly following the 2004 liberation by coalition forces, have resulted in the extensive conversion of agricultural and undeveloped lands both within and beyond the city's municipal boundaries into built-up areas. Compared to rural areas, urban areas are more significantly impacted by natural disasters, particularly flooding. This study explores the influence of surface cover types on runoff and flood risk, focusing on the Italian City-2 and Rizgary neighborhood in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The challenges associated with surface water management are not limited to new neighborhoods but are also prevalent in many older neighborhoods of the city. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method was employed to model runoff under varying rainfall scenarios. This study aimed to: (1) evaluate the impact of impervious surfaces in residential areas on runoff generation, emphasizing the role of urban design; (2) analyze how varying housing densities influence runoff under different rainfall scenarios, comparing Italian City 2 and Rizgary Neighborhood in Erbil to represent distinct urban typologies; and (3) explore the potential of the SCS-CN method for sustainable hydrological planning. The findings provide insights for optimizing urban planning, mitigating flood risks, and enhancing water resource management in semi-arid regions like Erbil. The results reveal that increasing the proportion of permeable surfaces significantly reduces runoff volumes and mitigates flood risks, as compared to areas dominated by impervious surfaces. These findings underscore the critical importance of integrating permeable materials and green infrastructure into urban design to enhance flood resilience. The study offers valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, and developers by identifying optimal surface compositions for reducing flood risks in rapidly urbanizing areas. Additionally, the research emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable urban development policies, particularly in regions like Erbil, which face the dual challenges of rapid urbanization and climate change-induced risks.

How to cite: Mustafa, A., Szydłowski, M., and Aziz, S. Q.: Optimizing Impervious Surface Distribution for Enhanced Urban Flood Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4550, 2025.

Droughts and floods are natural phenomena in the Amazon, arising from the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall distribution. However, anthropogenic climate change and forest degradation, summed to large-scale climatic events, have intensified their frequency, intensity and onset, pushing the Amazon region to a critical tipping point. The Madeira River, the largest and most significant tributary of the Amazon River, is particularly vulnerable to these extremes. Notable droughts in 2005, 2010, 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, alongside major floods in 2014 and 2021, highlight the increasing variability of hydrometeorological patterns, severely impacting water resources, ecosystems and communities. This study evaluates the environmental and social impacts of climate change on the Madeira River Basin, emphasizing changes in hydrometeorological patterns and their repercussions in droughts and flood events. Daily observed data on precipitation, streamflow, and water level from stations operated by the National Water and Sanitation Agency (ANA) were analyzed. A 50-year historical dataset (January 1975 to August 2024) across 14 locations was used to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to assess the magnitudes, duration, and period of occurrence of flood-drought events. The findings reveal escalating impacts of hydrological extremes on ecosystems and communities. Rising temperatures and extreme events disrupt the basin’s ecological recovery processes, reducing soil moisture, altering evapotranspiration rates, and stressing biodiversity. Communities face reduced water availability, compromised hydroelectric energy production, and restricted transportation for riparian populations reliant on river systems for livelihoods. Correlations between SPI and SSI were analyzed to understand the interactions between climatic and hydrological variables, offering insights into the basin’s response mechanisms to drought and flood events. These insights are critical for guiding adaptive strategies and managing water resources in a changing climate. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of developing and refining early warning systems to mitigate risks, enhance resilience and support sustainable management in the face of hydrological extremes.

How to cite: Camarano Lüdtke, J., Melo Brentan, B., and Ferreira Rodrigues, A.: Investigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Extremes in The Madeira River Basin, Amazonia: an emphasis on the unprecedented drought-flood transitions over the last decade, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4574, 2025.

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have intensified extreme weather events globally. In the summer of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China experienced an extreme drought, significantly impacting the ecosystems and society. However, the specific effects of this extreme drought on surface and subsurface hydrological dynamics remain unclear. Here we employed satellite-observed terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and a modified hydrological model with consideration of reservoir operation, human water consumption, and water diversion engineering to quantify how subsurface and surface water in YRB responded to such an extreme drought in 2022. Validation against a series of observations shows that the modified model has good performance in reproducing daily streamflow, reservoir water storage, lake water storage, and snow water equivalent. It achieved more precise GRACE TWSA estimates in the YRB with significant human intervention, and therefore it can accurately quantify both surface and subsurface hydrological responses to the 2022 extreme drought. Compared to the same months (July-December) in 2015-2021, the drought in 2022 resulted in a decrease in precipitation and discharge of 373 km3 (36%) and 324 km3(50%), respectively, while an increase in evapotranspiration of 156 km3 (29%) in the YRB. In general, the surface water storage (SWS) is relatively low from July 2022, followed by subsurface water storage (SSWS) from August 2022, indicating an approximately one-month lag from the former to the latter. During the latter half year of 2022, the SWS and SSWS reduced by 48 km3 and 83 km3, respectively, suggesting the changes in the latter dominated the TWS variations. This study sheds light on the responses of surface and subsurface hydrology to extreme droughts, and the hydrological modeling framework with consideration of human activities proposed here holds applicability beyond the YRB.

How to cite: Tang, Z., Zhang, Y., and Kong, D.: Using hydrological modeling and satellite observations to elucidate subsurface and surface hydrological responses to the extreme drought, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5487, 2025.

Compared to other natural disasters, drought is a disaster that continues and accumulates over time, with its impacts depending on the spatial extent of droughts over prolonged periods. Droughts propagate in time and space. Especially, the spatial drought propagation refers to expansion of drought from specific regions to other regions due to increased magnitude or transition of drought center. This study aims to conduct quantitative assessment of spatial drought propagation that has been relatively understudied in South Korea. We identified the seasonal source regions and analyzed the impacts of spatial drought propagation of meteorological droughts in South Korea, using propagation potential (PP) and potential influence of source region (PISR). The PP indicates the difference in intensity between drought propagation from a specific grid to other grids and from other grids to the specific grid. A grid with positive PP values is defined as a source region, while a grid with negative PP values is defined as a sink region. A source region refers to the region of early drought onset that propagates to other regions within the basin, and a higher PP value represents a higher intensity of drought propagation. The PISR is the proportion of drought events propagated from drought onset of source regions within the basin. In this study, the highest absolute values of PP exist in spring, which has the highest risk of drought due to the climate in South Korea, and this result indicates a frequent occurrence of spatial propagation. On the other hand, the lowest absolute values of PP exist in autumn. We estimate that drought onset in sink region is more likely influenced by propagation from source regions, rather than individual drought occurrence. In conclusion, the PP is considered for detecting the source regions of meteorological drought and assessing the seasonality of spatial propagation. In addition, the PISR quantitatively assesses the impact of source regions, determining that sink regions are high hazard influenced by source regions, rather than individual drought occurrence. The results of this study can contribute to detecting the areas where the drought can propagate ahead of time to minimize the impact of droughts.

Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant (2022-MOIS63-001) of Cooperative Research Method and Safety Management Technology in National Disaster funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea).

How to cite: Son, H.-J., Han, J., and Kim, T.-W.: Detecting Source Regions of Spatial Drought Propagation and Quantitative Assessment of Their Potential Influence in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5531, 2025.

EGU25-5996 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Non-stationary low-flow frequency analysis with Mixture Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution 

Farhana Sweeta Fitriana, Svenja Fischer, Gabriele Weigelhofer, and Gregor Laaha

Abstract

Extreme low flow is a critical component of the river flow regime, posing significant risks for water management by impacting water availability and quality. Addressing these challenges requires accurate information on design low flow corresponding to specific non-exceedance probabilities. Traditional low-flow frequency analysis assumes stationarity and process homogeneity; however, these assumptions become questionable under the influence of climate change and varying generation processes for low flows, such as in seasonal snow climate that the annual extreme series will be a mixture of both summer and winter low-flow events. The study aims to extend regional low flow frequency analysis to non-stationary conditions and account for seasonal variation for a better statistical description of extreme events.

First, we analyse temporal trends in the study area separately for annual minimum winter and summer series and investigate whether they can be related to temperature increase or other climate trends. Then, we apply modelling concepts to extend the mixed distribution model of Laaha (2023) to non-stationary conditions using a conditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. This allows us to consider the detected trends in low flow frequency analysis. The results of the study provide a new perspective on low flow processes and impact chains in river systems.

Keywords: Non-stationary frequency analysis, low flow, drought, climate change, seasonality

Reference

Laaha, G. (2023). A mixed distribution approach for low-flow frequency analysis – Part 1: Concept, performance, and effect of seasonality. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27(3), 689-701. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-689-2023

 

How to cite: Fitriana, F. S., Fischer, S., Weigelhofer, G., and Laaha, G.: Non-stationary low-flow frequency analysis with Mixture Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5996, 2025.

EGU25-6833 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Advancing Flood Impact Estimation: Comparing Multivariate Continuous Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models with Traditional Approaches 

Diego Armando Urrea Méndez, Dina Vanesa Gomez Rabe, and Manuel del Jesus Peñil

Flood frequency estimation is critical for water resource planning and management; however, traditional methods, typically univariate, often underestimate impacts due to several limitations, such as the use of short observational series (Taleb, 2022) and the lack of consideration for the interdependence among key hydrological variables (e.g., precipitation, discharge, and volume) (G. Salvadori et al., 2011; Serinaldi, 2015) Addressing these shortcomings, we present an innovative methodological framework that integrates continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling with multivariate analysis techniques (Brunner et al., 2017; Grimaldi et al., 2013, 2021), enabling a more comprehensive representation of flood impacts and extent. This approach encompasses three distinct hydrological modeling strategies:

First, we employ rainfall-based modeling using both observed and synthetic rainfall series to develop rainfall-runoff hydrological models that generate discharge series. These discharge series are used to apply univariate methodologies, resulting in three flood scenarios: one scenario based on discharges derived from observed rainfall, a second scenario using synthetic rainfall, and, finally, an additional scenario derived from continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling. A key advantage of the latter approach is the elimination of the need for design hyetographs and hydrographs, which are significant sources of uncertainty in conventional methods (Grimaldi et al., 2012).

Second, we focus on discharge-based modeling, utilizing both observed and synthetic discharge series. This process employs a multivariate methodological framework to generate synthetic discharge series derived from observed data. Univariate methodologies are applied to these series to produce two flood scenarios: one exclusively based on observed series and another on synthetic series. Additionally, continuous discharge series generated through the multivariate framework are incorporated into a continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach, yielding a third scenario that enables more robust and detailed analysis.

Finally, joint behavior is evaluated through the analysis of joint return periods, accounting for the spatial dependence of precipitation (Urrea Méndez & Del Jesus, 2023) and the interaction between discharge and volume (Brunner et al., 2017; Fischer & Schumann, 2023). This framework explores distinct approaches that complementarily capture the physical processes underlying floods, thereby reducing uncertainty and improving estimations compared to conventional univariate methods. Validation of this framework will be conducted in the Los Corrales de Buelna region, Spain, demonstrating how the combination of multivariate tools and continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling enhances the accuracy of extreme event identification and management, offering more robust and effective solutions for engineering and territorial planning.

Brunner, M. I., Viviroli, D., Sikorska, A. E., Vannier, O., Favre, A.-C., & Seibert, J. (2017). Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs. Water Resources Research, 53(2), 1390–1406. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019535

Salvadori, C. De Michele, & F. Durante. (2011). On the return period and design in a multivariate framework. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(11), 3293–3305. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3293-2011

Grimaldi, S., Nardi, F., Piscopia, R., Petroselli, A., & Apollonio, C. (2021). Continuous hydrologic modelling for design simulation in small and ungauged basins: A step forward and some tests for its practical use. Journal of Hydrology, 595, 125664. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125664

Grimaldi, S., Petroselli, A., Arcangeletti, E., & Nardi, F. (2013). Flood mapping in ungauged basins using fully continuous hydrologic–hydraulic modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 487, 39–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.023

How to cite: Urrea Méndez, D. A., Gomez Rabe, D. V., and del Jesus Peñil, M.: Advancing Flood Impact Estimation: Comparing Multivariate Continuous Hydrologic-Hydraulic Models with Traditional Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6833, 2025.

EGU25-6931 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Pathways of drought propagation in near-natural catchments across Germany   

Mayra Daniela Peña-Guerrero, Zhenyu Wang, Pia Ebeling, Christian Siebert, Ralf Merz, and Larisa Tarasova

Drought is one of the costliest natural hazards of widespread occurrence and long-lasting economic, social, and environmental consequences. Droughts are gradual phenomenon with far-reaching effects that develop over time. Therefore, understanding how drought conditions spread through the terrestrial compartments is essential for predicting impacts, adjusting mitigation strategies, and enhancing climate adaptation. Here, we analyze and characterized drought propagation from meteorological to streamflow and groundwater observations in more than 500 selected river catchments (areas below 300 km2), hosting 13,500 shallow and deep groundwater wells in Germany using the variable threshold level method. We use daily meteorological and streamflow data from CAMELS-DE (Loritz et al.,2024) and a biweekly dataset of groundwater observation compiled from German water authorities, covering the period 1980 to 2020. Among near-natural German river catchments (with no noticeable direct human influence on river flow through reservoir storage and or abstractions), we find four main drought propagation archetypes that evidence the strong coupling or decoupling of surface and subsurface waters: (1) catchments with very reactive groundwater but unresponsive streamflow, where groundwater droughts onset almost immediately in response to meteorological droughts, while the response of streamflow is delayed; (2) fast reactive catchments with delayed response of groundwater droughts; (3) slow reactive catchments characterized by the delayed propagation of groundwater droughts and long recovery times; and (4) very resilient catchments where only the most severe meteorological droughts manifest in either streamflow or groundwater droughts. Our results provide insights on the spatial variability of drought propagation mechanisms at a national scale that can be used to pinpoint the hotspots of rapid drought onset and slow recovery that require targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Loritz, R., Dolich, A., Acuña Espinoza, E., Ebeling, P., Guse, B., Götte, J., Hassler, S. K., Hauffe, C., Heidbüchel, I., Kiesel, J., Mälicke, M., Müller-Thomy, H., Stölzle, M., and Tarasova, L.: CAMELS-DE: hydro-meteorological time series and attributes for 1582 catchments in Germany, Earth Syst. Sci. Data (2024) Vol. 16 Issue 12. DOI: 10.5194/essd-16-5625-2024

 

How to cite: Peña-Guerrero, M. D., Wang, Z., Ebeling, P., Siebert, C., Merz, R., and Tarasova, L.: Pathways of drought propagation in near-natural catchments across Germany  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6931, 2025.

EGU25-6954 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Analyzing Extreme Flood Events in a Warming Climate: Insights from High-Resolution Storyline Simulations 

Aparna Chandrasekar, Andreas Marx, Matthias Kelbling, Valentin Simon Lüdke, Katherine Grayson, Amal John, Jeisson Javier Leal Rojas, Sebastian Mueller, and Stephan Thober

Climate change is driving significant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Events like the 2021 Ahrtal flood, 2010 Pakistan flood, and 2020 Gloria flood underscore the growing vulnerability of regions to these extreme events. Spectral nudging is used to reproduce observed conditions in a climate model system, thus enabling the representation of extreme events in the historical and climate change scenarios. In this study, we utilize high-resolution storyline simulations derived through spectral nudging of the IFS-FESOM global climate model to force the global mesoscale hydrological model mHM (mhm-ufz.org). Currently, the IFS-FESOM storyline simulations operate at a spatial resolution of 10 km and an hourly temporal resolution, thus allowing us to study diurnal variability in the flood events. The first part of this study involves the validation of historic event using observation based datasets like ERA5. In the second part the same event is recreated in a 2K warmer climate. By analyzing the event in a warmer world, this study provides critical insights into regional vulnerabilities and informing adaptation planning and strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate extremes in a rapidly warming world.

How to cite: Chandrasekar, A., Marx, A., Kelbling, M., Lüdke, V. S., Grayson, K., John, A., Leal Rojas, J. J., Mueller, S., and Thober, S.: Analyzing Extreme Flood Events in a Warming Climate: Insights from High-Resolution Storyline Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6954, 2025.

EGU25-6991 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Characterising Historical and Future Transitions in UK Hydrological Extremes 

Rachael Armitage, Eugene Magee, Amulya Chevuturi, Wilson Chan, and Jamie Hannaford

Rapid transitions between droughts and floods can exacerbate the impacts of the individual events and present a complex challenge for water resource management: sudden or frequent transitions between dry and wet conditions can negatively impact water quality, agricultural productivity, and cause damage to water infrastructure. Despite these potentially severe impacts, such transitions are less comprehensively studied than their component extremes.  

Transitions can be defined multiple ways, here we identify transition events as the period between consecutive yet opposite extremes. Firstly, we use a threshold method to demarcate extreme wet and dry events in both streamflow and precipitation to allow for understanding of both hydrological and meteorological transitions. Transitions are then derived from the extreme wet and dry events in pairs, to extract both wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet transitions. The transition events can then be characterised and quantified by transition metrics, namely magnitude, duration, intensity, and frequency. We apply these methods to analyse both historical and future transitions over the UK using national river flow and precipitation projections from the enhanced future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) dataset for 1989-2079. We also use the associated physical catchment characteristics to evaluate their influence on transitions. 

This work aims to characterise the spatial distribution of transitions in the UK, with a view to identifying any ‘hotspots’ of transitions, as well as assess projected changes in transitions across the UK. We find a difference in transition characteristics between the north-west and south-east UK, a pattern which persists under future projections, and an increase in the frequency of transitions in the north-west into the future.  

Our findings will provide valuable insights to support water resource managers in drought and flood preparedness in making informed, sustainable decisions to mitigate the impacts of extreme wet and dry events; and potentially enable improved prediction of hydrological extremes.  

How to cite: Armitage, R., Magee, E., Chevuturi, A., Chan, W., and Hannaford, J.: Characterising Historical and Future Transitions in UK Hydrological Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6991, 2025.

Canada has a long history of recurrent flooding, which has resulted in significant damage and large government disaster assistance disbursements. The most expensive flood in Canada was the 2013 Alberta flood, which resulted in total estimated losses of over five billion dollars, according to the Canadian disaster database. There is an increasing body of literature, suggesting that future climate change will alter precipitation and streamflow characteristics, snowpack, and snowmelt timing and magnitude. Extreme inflows that exceed dam discharge and storage capacity can lead to dam breach, posing significant risks to lives and properties on the downstream. Dams constructed decades ago are specifically vulnerable to unprecedented flood events. Therefore, in addition to other actions, an important step for enhancing and assessing climate-resilience of dams is to develop climate change informed approaches for estimating design floods and associated guidelines. For the development of design flood estimation guidelines, a variety of literature was explored, including journal articles, national and international guidelines, technical reports, and documents pertaining to regional climate change and catastrophic events. In addition, outcomes from a number of targeted dam vulnerability assessment case studies, involving development of physics-informed non-stationary flood frequency relationships and flood envelop curves, were also considered. Through a systematic review of traditional design practices, careful examination of regional climate change vulnerabilities, and outcomes of targeted dam vulnerability assessment case studies, it was realized that a variety of approaches will be required to ensure future climate-resilience of dams of all sizes, ranging from low-risk small dams to high-risk large dams. Therefore, traditional design flood estimation methodologies need to be innovated, following new design philosophies, advances in climate change science, and improved understandings of regional flood generating mechanisms. This presentation will discuss the steps taken to develop design flood estimation guidelines and the outcomes of various research activities, including the development of physics-informed non-stationary flood frequency analyses and creation of regional flood envelop curves to support design of critical water infrastructure.

How to cite: Khaliq, M.: Climate-Resilience of Dams: Canadian Perspectives and Design Flood Estimation Guidelines, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7330, 2025.

EGU25-7656 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Space-time variability in extreme drought statistical characteristics 

Maria Francesca Caruso, Gabriele Villarini, and Marco Marani

Droughts occur at larger spatial and longer temporal scale than most hydroclimatic processes. More than for other natural hazards, a thorough understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of droughts is essential in monitoring, projecting, and adapting to future drought conditions. However, the long characteristic time scale of droughts severely limits their observation in the historical record, hampering our ability to track how extreme drought events evolve in space and time. This study investigates the statistical characteristics of extreme droughts using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4 (PMIP4) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). By analyzing historical and paleo-hydrological data, we assess the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme drought events over multiple geographic locations and across different time scales. An advanced non-asymptotic statistical approach, which explicitly separates intensity and occurrence of the process, is employed to capture the variability and the frequency of extreme drought characteristics in space and in time. Our findings reveal significant regional differences in extreme drought properties, with pronounced variations across different climate states and time periods.

How to cite: Caruso, M. F., Villarini, G., and Marani, M.: Space-time variability in extreme drought statistical characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7656, 2025.

EGU25-8090 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Unearthing the source of anomalous moisture and temperature excesses for the record-breaking 2023 Amazon drought  

Luis Gimeno, Jose Carlos Fernandez-Alvarez, Raquel Nieto, David Carvalho, and Sergio Vicente-Serrano

The record-breaking 2023 Amazon drought, considered a once-in-a-century event, was not generally due to a moisture deficit from either remote sources or from the Amazon Basin itself. Rather, it was caused by the almost complete absence of atmospheric instability which inhibited convection and therefore precipitation in this region and by extremely high temperatures. Although atmospheric moisture was anomalously high, it was insufficient to compensate for high temperature, which led to reduced relative humidity values and enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand. Furthermore, the moisture that did not precipitate in the region due to atmospheric stability was transported to areas where there was sufficient instability for convection (i.e. moisture sinks), resulting in very high precipitation and floods in La Plata river basin in September 2023. The temperature anomaly over the target region presents two sources, a local one contributing to warming and an external one contributing to cooling. The results show the importance of adiabatic warming due to subsidence in the region itself (atmospheric stability) and also outside (anticyclonic circulation). 

How to cite: Gimeno, L., Fernandez-Alvarez, J. C., Nieto, R., Carvalho, D., and Vicente-Serrano, S.: Unearthing the source of anomalous moisture and temperature excesses for the record-breaking 2023 Amazon drought , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8090, 2025.

EGU25-8264 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Large-scale groundwater drought recovery assessment using a 1km global groundwater model 

Sandra Margrit Hauswirth and Niko Wanders

Assessing human influence on groundwater resources globally is a complex challenge, particularly when attempting to disentangle human impacts on groundwater drought dynamics. These impacts may also have a strong influence on groundwater recovery after drought periods, where intensification of groundwater pumping could lead to longer recovery periods. With the GLOBGM v1.0, a 1km global groundwater model (1), we investigate the groundwater drought recovery at different spatial scales and various locations, with and without human influences to see if we can disentangle these signals.

While such large-scale physically-based models are valuable for simulating underlying processes, they are often computationally intensive, especially when simulating at high spatial resolutions up to 1km globally, and rely on more coarser information than locally informed models. To improve future drought recovery insights, a groundwater surrogate model is created that can reproduce groundwater fields as generated by GLOBGM. Integrating machine learning and physically-based models (hybrid approaches) offer a promising solution to not only reduce computational demands but also allow for the integration of observational data. Specifically, we will merge information from observations and the hybrid model to enhance the model's accuracy in representing human influences on drought recovery.

Ultimately, the surrogate model will help us extend the current groundwater drought recovery analysis in the future by enabling the analysis of drought dynamics and human impacts using scenario analyses under different socio-economic forcings.

References:

  • Verkaik, J., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Oude Essink, G. H. P., Lin, H. X., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: GLOBGM v1.0: a parallel implementation of a 30 arcsec PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW global-scale groundwater model, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 275–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-275-2024, 2024.

How to cite: Hauswirth, S. M. and Wanders, N.: Large-scale groundwater drought recovery assessment using a 1km global groundwater model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8264, 2025.

EGU25-8411 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Using streamflow and baseflow separation to characterize spells of low and high flows and their transitions 

Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Maria-Helena Ramos, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as floods and droughts can lead to severe socio-economic and environmental impacts, which can be amplified through temporally compound events, when successive hazards occur before the system can recover from the first event. This situation may arise not only from repeated occurrences of the same hazard, but also from shifts between contrasting hydrometeorological hazards. In this study, we propose a framework for consistently identifying and characterizing high-flow spells (HFS) and low-flow spells (LFS), and the transitions from one type of spell to another that might be of particular interest to stakeholders. We use baseflow as a proxy to determine catchment recovery between spells, and a mixed threshold approach to identify the spells in long discharge time series. We apply the methodology to 643 catchments of the CAMELS-FR dataset in France, with at least 30 complete hydrological years of data over the 1970-2021 period. The spells were characterized in terms of duration and severity. We further analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of consecutive spells of the same type and the transitions between spells, investigating their frequency and transition times. The application of the framework allowed us to identify over 140,000 spells across all catchments, with 74% classified as HFS and 26% as LFS. HFS of short duration (less than 3 days) and high severity (above 99th percentile) occur more often in catchments located in mountainous areas, while LFS of long duration (over 90 days) and high severity (below 5th percentile) occur more often in Northern France. Our results also indicate that consecutive short-duration HFS occur more often in the dataset studied than consecutive long duration LFS. Rapid transitions (less than 14 days) from LFS to HFS mainly occur in the Mediterranean part of France in the beginning of the winter season. The framework developed to identify spatiotemporal patterns of high and low flow spells can be potentially useful to new generation early warning systems and support first responders in flood disaster and drought management.

This work is funded by Horizon Europe under grant agreement No. 101074075 (MedEWSa project).

How to cite: Guimarães, G. M., Ramos, M.-H., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Using streamflow and baseflow separation to characterize spells of low and high flows and their transitions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8411, 2025.

EGU25-9142 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Projections of Drought Characteristics in Syria under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenario 

Shifa Mathbout, Javier Martin Vide, Joan Albert Lopez Bustins, George Boustras, Pierantonios Papazoglou, and Fatima Raai

This study investigates the forecasting of drought characteristics—specifically duration, frequency, and intensity—in Syria, utilizing an ensemble of 13 models from the latest CMIP6 dataset across two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The research compares CMIP6 model outputs with observed climate data from CRU TS v4.06 and ERA 5 for the reference period (1970–2000). Results show that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively replicates key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature, while also capturing drought characteristics in Syria. However, most models tend to underestimate winter and spring precipitation, though they accurately represent the general decline in seasonal and annual rainfall. Syria's central, eastern, and northeastern regions, characterized by high temperatures and low precipitation, are particularly vulnerable. Future projections indicate significant temperature increases in northern, eastern, and northeastern Syria, with a general decline in precipitation, particularly in the southwest.

Drought projections based on SPI_12 and SPEI_12 indices indicate more severe, prolonged, and intense drought conditions, particularly in Syria’s arid and semi-arid regions. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5–8.5), these areas are at heightened risk of severe droughts, with consistent overestimation of drought intensity and duration due to excessive temperature projections. This highlights the importance of accurate climate data for policymaking to prevent misallocation of resources and inadequate responses to droughts. Projections also suggest that areas previously less vulnerable to droughts, such as Syria's western coastal regions, may experience prolonged dry spells by the end of the 21st century. The findings underscore the need for mitigation strategies, improved water resource management, and adaptive planning to address the growing drought risks in Syria. Enhanced research and more reliable projections for semi-arid regions are critical for future climate adaptation efforts.

How to cite: Mathbout, S., Martin Vide, J., Lopez Bustins, J. A., Boustras, G., Papazoglou, P., and Raai, F.: Projections of Drought Characteristics in Syria under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenario, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9142, 2025.

With climate change, new forms of droughts have emerged and/or gained major interest, such as flash droughts and dry spells. Contrarily to the classical concept of droughts, which are often defined as slow-evolving and long-lasting extremes with no definite start and end, these rapidly emerging droughts have rapid onset and clear duration.

In this study, we analyze trends of frequency and duration of rapidly emerging droughts using four dry spell (DS) and four flash drought (FD) definitions, as well as the co-occurrence of DS and FD. We also evaluate the impact of DS and FD occurrence on crop yields. To achieve that, we use 52 DWD weather stations with daily measurements across Germany with no missing data between 1980 and 2023. The DS and FD definitions require precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and actual and potential evapotranspiration series. ETP is computed using the Penman-Monteith equation. ETA and SM are obtained from the WOFOST crop simulation model using maize as the default crop.

Results show strong positive trends across Germany on both duration and frequency for both DS and FD, with particularly intense trends on compound dry-hot events (all latitudes), in short to mid-length dry spells (7 to 20 days – all latitudes), and in southern Germany (most FD and DS event definitions). We also observe a high co-occurrence rate (synchronicity) between dry spells and flash droughts in northern Germany, which could assist in developing early warning systems. Finally, results indicate strong correlations between rapidly emerging drought occurrence and significant crop losses, particularly when FD and DS are concentrated in the early summer months.

How to cite: Alencar, P. and Paton, E.: Dry spells and flash droughts – a comparative analysis of definitions, co-occurrence, trends, and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9454, 2025.

EGU25-9464 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Future evolution of large floods in Europe 

Beijing Fang, Oldrich Rakovec, Emanuele Bevacqua, Rohini Kumar, and Jakob Zscheischler

Large floods regularly cause loss of life and substantial economic damage. In a warmer climate, increased precipitation variability and extremes, combined with reduced snowmelt, are expected to alter flood characteristics, but how the dynamics of large floods across Europe will evolve under climate change remains unclear.  Many existing grid-based and catchment-based studies lack the capacity to systematically identify widespread floods associated with larger impacts. This study addresses these gaps by identifying large, spatially connected floods in Europe based on the spatio-temporal connectivity of runoff extremes, which is derived from daily routed runoff simulations driven by five CMIP5 models under various warming levels. Further, a comprehensive set of flood metrics—including frequency, timing, extent, and volume—is quantified to assess future flood changes. Additionally, the underlying drivers of these changes are investigated. We show that earlier snowmelt generally leads to earlier floods, while increasing precipitation contributions attenuates flood seasonality. In western and central Europe, projected increases in precipitation amplify flood extents and volumes, particularly for the most extreme floods. In contrast, reduced snowmelt dominates flood changes in northern Europe. Interestingly, floods of different magnitudes exhibit varied responses to global warming. For example, while the extent of average large floods in southern Europe are projected to decrease, the most extreme floods remain nearly unchanged, warranting continued attention. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the impact of climate change on the dynamics and magnitude of large floods is strongly region-specific. These insights provide essential information for regional flood risk management and could help mitigate the impacts of particularly large floods in Europe.

How to cite: Fang, B., Rakovec, O., Bevacqua, E., Kumar, R., and Zscheischler, J.: Future evolution of large floods in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9464, 2025.

EGU25-9538 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Flash droughts over the United Kingdom 

Ivan Noguera, Jamie Hannaford, and Maliko Tanguy

Flash drought is a complex phenomenon distinguished by an unsual rapid development driven by severe precipitation deficits and/or anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED). While most research has focused on drier parts of the world, flash droughts can occur in temperate regions like the United Kingdom (UK). Historically most attention in the UK has focused on long, multiannual drought events driven by successive dry winters (e.g. 2004 – 2006). However, recent years have seen rapid onset flash droughts as part of exceptionally arid summers (e.g. 2018) that have had severe and widespread impacts on people and ecosystems alike. Here, we analysed the occurrence of this type of rapid-onset drought events in the UK for the period 1969-2021. Our results show that flash droughts affected both the wetter regions of north-west and the drier regions of south-east over the last five decades. Flash droughts frequency exhibit a high interannual variability, as well as a large spatial differences. Central and northern regions were the most frequently affected by flash droughts in comparison to southeastern region. Overall, positive trends were reported in eastern and northern regions, while negative and non-significant trends predominate over the western region. In UK, flash drought development responds primarily to precipitation variability, although AED is important as a secondary driver of flash drought triggering in the drier regions of southeastern England. Likewise, we found that flash droughts typically develop under remarkable positive anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height associated to the presence of high-pressure systems. This study presents a first detailed characterisation of flash drought in UK, providing useful information for drought assessment and management, and a baseline against which future changes in flash drought occurrence can be projected.

How to cite: Noguera, I., Hannaford, J., and Tanguy, M.: Flash droughts over the United Kingdom, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9538, 2025.

EGU25-9824 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Do compound drought-flood events cause greater damages than standalone flood events? 

Siqi Deng, Ravikumar Guntu, Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Dongsheng Zhao, and Heidi Kreibich

Droughts and floods are becoming increasingly frequent and severe as a result of climate change, driven by rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. Despite the growing recognition of the linkages between droughts and floods, no study has systematically analysed their combined impacts, particularly the economic consequences of compound drought-flood events (CDFEs). To address this gap, we developed a novel framework for identifying CDFEs and standalone flood events in Europe by utilizing various observational data, including precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture. These events were then matched with flood impact records from the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database using both catchment-based and event-based approaches. By comparing the economic impacts of CDFEs with those of standalone flood events, we quantified the extent to which CDFEs result in higher impacts.

Our findings reveal that CDFEs impose higher economic impacts compared to standalone flood events. Significant differences are also observed in the upper tail of economic losses for CDFEs compared to standalone flood events, which implies that CDFEs are more likely to result in catastrophic losses, posing a greater challenge to risk management strategies. Our study highlights the critical need to consider the interactions between droughts and floods in disaster risk management.

How to cite: Deng, S., Guntu, R., Khosh Bin Ghomash, S., Zhao, D., and Kreibich, H.: Do compound drought-flood events cause greater damages than standalone flood events?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9824, 2025.

EGU25-10024 | Orals | HS2.4.1

High-Resolution Climate Models Reveal Increasing Meteorological Drought Intensity in Fenno-Scandinavia 

Ruben Häberli, Eigil Kaas, Ole Bøssing Christensen, and Peter Thejll

Climate projections indicate that Fenno-Scandinavia will experience increased precipitation in the future. However, the region might paradoxically face both intensified floods and more severe seasonal droughts. Little research has explored this apparent contradiction and its implications for drought frequency. Most of the current drought projections are based on global climate models with very low resolution. In this study, we use convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) based on HARMONIE-Climate at a resolution of about 3 km to investigate meteorological drought projections in Fenno-Scandinavia. For the first time this model was run for 20-year time slices (1986-2005, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100), allowing for climate analysis with explicitly resolving convection rather than relying on parameterisation, giving overall more accurate precipitation output.

Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), we found an increase in the frequency of the most extreme and unprecedented meteorological droughts. Southern Scandinavia experiences a significant increase in the most extreme droughts, especially during the growing season. To identify these increases in drought extremes, we developed a new drought threshold method using the fact that the index is standardised to compare future drought frequency to historical data. This method does not use a single drought definition, but rather compares the drought frequency for multiple intensities. Importantly, our results show significant increase in droughts projected using the 3 km convection resolving models compared to the 12 km models with convection parameterisation. This indicates that current regional climate models possibly underestimate drought risk. The projections indicate larger crop yield reduction due to short but severe dry spells during the growing season and potential impacts on natural ecosystems. The combination of overall wetter conditions with more intense seasonal droughts presents new challenges for water resource management. We recommend the usage of the drought threshold method to analyse drought projections in order to also take the intensity of the drought into account. Future work will apply the new drought threshold method to regional climate model ensemble data for greater robustness.

How to cite: Häberli, R., Kaas, E., Christensen, O. B., and Thejll, P.: High-Resolution Climate Models Reveal Increasing Meteorological Drought Intensity in Fenno-Scandinavia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10024, 2025.

EGU25-10370 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Validating drought propagation through the entire hydrological cycle simulated with an integrated national-scale hydrological model 

Raphael Schneider, Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Mark F. T. Hansen, Julian Koch, Mie Andreasen, Bertel Nilsson, and Simon Stisen

Droughts are traditionally associated with warmer, arid climates. However, recent events such as the European droughts of 2018 and 2022, have also highlighted the vulnerability of temperate regions such as Northern Europe. For example, in Denmark the 2018 summer drought led to severe soil water degradation with reported crop failures, surface water degradation, and infrastructural damages due to soil subsidence. Furthermore, climate change studies point towards increasing frequency and intensity of severe droughts.

These events have underscored the importance of understanding how meteorological droughts propagate through the hydrological cycle, transforming into soil moisture and hydrological droughts with distinct response times and magnitudes in different compartments of the hydrological cycle. Due to the close coupling of groundwater to surface waters, and the reliance on groundwater for water supply, drought analysis in Denmark must encompass the entire hydrological cycle in a coupled, integrated manner.

Drought propagation is influenced by numerous factors, including topography, soil types, vegetation, hydrogeology, and human interventions, leading to high spatial variability. While much research has focused on streamflow and soil moisture droughts, the drought propagation across the entire hydrological cycle, where groundwater and its coupling to surface hydrology plays a critical role, remains understudied due to data limitations, particularly at larger scales.

This study leverages the National Hydrological Model of Denmark (DK-model), an integrated, distributed hydrological model, to evaluate drought propagation across all hydrological compartments, from precipitation to soil moisture, streamflow, and shallow and deep groundwater. The DK-model’s nature as an integrated distributed model covering the entirety of Denmark with diverse hydrogeological settings, combined with high observation data availability across the hydrological compartments, provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the model’s ability of reproducing drought events and propagation.

By analyzing model outputs against a large dataset of long-term observations of streamflow, groundwater levels and soil moisture, we comprehensively assess the model’s capability to simulate drought propagation and identify correlations, lag times, and response magnitudes. This work improves understanding of drought dynamics in temperate regions and supports sustainable water resource management in Denmark.

How to cite: Schneider, R., Karlsson Seidenfaden, I., F. T. Hansen, M., Koch, J., Andreasen, M., Nilsson, B., and Stisen, S.: Validating drought propagation through the entire hydrological cycle simulated with an integrated national-scale hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10370, 2025.

EGU25-10427 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Flood frequency analysis in West Africa in a climate change context 

Serigne Bassirou Diop, Job Ekolu, Yves Tramblay, Bastien Dieppois, Stefania Grimaldi, Ansoumana Bodian, Juliette Blanchet, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Salamon, and Benjamin Sultan

Floods are a recurring and devastating hazard in West Africa, with significant socio-economic and environmental impacts. A better understanding of their frequency and magnitude is crucial for effective flood risk mitigation, infrastructure design, and water resource management. The lack of reliable hydrometric datasets has hitherto been a major limitation in flood frequency analysis at the scale of West Africa. We combine insights from historical flood frequency analysis and future climate-driven flood projections to provide a more complete description of flood hazards in West Africa. Using a newly developed African hydrological database, annual maximum flow (AMF) time series from 246 river basins (1975–2018) were analyzed with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Gumbel distributions. The GEV distribution, paired with the Generalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (GMLE) method, yielded the best results for quantile estimation, enabling the generation of regional envelope curves for the first time in West Africa. Future flood trends have been assessed from the OS LISFLOOD and the HMF-WA large-scale distributed hydrological models, driven by five bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Both hydrological models consistently projected increases in flood frequency and magnitude across West Africa, despite their differences in hydrological processes representation and calibration schemes. Flood magnitudes are projected to increase in 94% of stations, with some areas experiencing increases exceeding 45%. Significant trends are already observable in many basins as early as the 1980s, emphasizing the robust climate change signal in this region. This combined approach, integrating historical flood frequency analysis with future climate-driven projections, offers critical regional-scale insights into the evolving flood hazards in West Africa.

How to cite: Diop, S. B., Ekolu, J., Tramblay, Y., Dieppois, B., Grimaldi, S., Bodian, A., Blanchet, J., Rameshwaran, P., Salamon, P., and Sultan, B.: Flood frequency analysis in West Africa in a climate change context, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10427, 2025.

EGU25-10672 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

The major June 2023 flood event in Central Chile: A rain-on-snow case study at the Achibueno en la Recova River catchment 

Sebastián Krogh, René Garreaud, Lucía Scaff, Deniz Bozkurt, and Raúl Valenzuela

After a decade long period of dry conditions in central Chile, the so called “Megadrought”, the winter of 2023 was an extraordinary wet season with two extreme precipitation events that led to two mayor floods. In June and August of 2023 (austral winter) two intense Atmospheric Rivers (AR) impacted the central region of Chile, resulting in high streamflow and flooding. The two hydrometeorological events produced significant infrastructure, social and economic damages in the region. The June 22-25 event occurred during a strong (Category 4) and persistent (~72 hrs) zonal AR. Intense precipitation was registered in several weather stations along the Central Andes Cordillera foothills, with total precipitation above 800 mm/event in several stations. Anomalous windy and warm temperature conditions were recorded, positioning the freezing level at higher-than-average elevations, and thus, creating a potential rain-on-snow (ROS) flood hazards in some catchments. We use the Achibueno en la Recova River (ARR) catchment as a case study as it had the highest recorded instantaneous peak flow in more than 30 years of records. Satellite images and data from a high elevation snow station show a persistent snowpack above the 2000 masl with about 200 mm of snow water equivalent, which began to melt at the beginning of the event, suggesting that a rain-on-snow event may have enhanced the flood. We implemented a physically based hydrological model using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model at the ARR catchment to reproduce the event, estimate the contribution of the ROS to the flood event and understand the controlling physical mechanisms. The hydrological model was compared against snow water equivalent and streamflow records, reasonably representing both the timing and the magnitude of these variables. Model results suggest that the ROS significantly contributed to the event, representing about 18% of the streamflow volume (1.1x108 m3), primarily during the first 2 days. The ratio between the Terrestrial Water Input (i.e., snowmelt plus rainfall) to rainfall show values between 1.7 and 1.9 at elevations between 2000 and 3000 masl, with higher values at south-facing slopes. The energy balance shows that most of the energy to melt the snowpack comes from the advected energy from the rain (43%), followed by net radiation (37%), latent (10%) and sensible (10%) heat fluxes. This study is, to the authors knowledge, the first documented study of a ROS event in the Chilean Andes with a significant societal and economic impact, which may help to better understand the potential of future ROS floods in The Andes.

How to cite: Krogh, S., Garreaud, R., Scaff, L., Bozkurt, D., and Valenzuela, R.: The major June 2023 flood event in Central Chile: A rain-on-snow case study at the Achibueno en la Recova River catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10672, 2025.

EGU25-11414 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Divergent impacts of land-use change on high and low river flow revealed by explainable machine learning 

Boen Zhang, Louise Slater, Simon Moulds, Michel Wortmann, Le Yu, Wouter Berghuijs, Xihui Gu, and Jiabo Yin

Quantifying impacts of land-use change on streamflow extremes is challenging, primarily due to the masking effects of other environmental processes. Our current understanding of these impacts on streamflow extremes remains incomplete. Here, we use explainable machine learning techniques to analyse over 1.5 million seasonal 7-day low-flow and high-flow events across 10,717 catchments worldwide between 1982 and 2023. Our model incorporates antecedent meteorological conditions, annual change of six land-use categories, and catchment characteristics (hydrogeological, anthropogenic, and topographic) as explanatory variables. The Shapley additive explanations technique is employed to quantify the contributions of the predictors to low and high flows. Our results indicate that all categories of land-use change exert a greater influence on high flows compared to low flows, although the overall contribution of land-use change to streamflow extremes is far smaller (< 2%) than that of antecedent meteorological conditions (32%–48%) and hydrologic signatures (35%–52%). Contrary to previous studies, our results indicate that land-use impacts are largely independent of catchment size. Notably, urbanization exhibits diverging effects on low flows: enhancing them in arid regions, reducing them in tropical regions, and minimally impacting them in temperate regions. Urbanization nearly always amplifies high flows, except in minimally urbanised catchments of arid regions. Areas with higher forest cover consistently have smaller low flows across all climate zones, and high flows appear generally insensitive to afforestation. Low flows generally are insensitive to cropland expansion but areas with more cropland typically have smaller high flows.

How to cite: Zhang, B., Slater, L., Moulds, S., Wortmann, M., Yu, L., Berghuijs, W., Gu, X., and Yin, J.: Divergent impacts of land-use change on high and low river flow revealed by explainable machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11414, 2025.

EGU25-11452 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Interactions Between Hydrological Extremes: Analysing drought-flood and flood-drought transitions in Europe 

Srividya Hariharan Sudha, Elisa Ragno, Ruud van der Ent, and Oswaldo Morales Nápoles

Climate change-induced fluctuations in the hydrological cycle are expected to increase the frequency of hydrological extremes and the transitions between them, namely, drought-flood and flood-drought transitions. While much research has focused on these events individually, their interactions remain less explored despite significant implications for water management, requiring a balance between water availability and safety.

This study investigates the interplay of hydro-meteorological drivers—precipitation (P), temperature (T), and streamflow (Q)—during drought-flood and flood-drought transitions across selected catchments in Europe with diverse climates, using long-term observational datasets. Drought and flood events are defined based on extreme wet and dry meteorological conditions (extending the methodology developed in Hariharan Sudha et al., 2024), and the duration and magnitude of their hydro-meteorological characteristics are quantified. The analysis examines how an opposite hydrological event as a precondition influences the propagation speed, timing, and severity of the subsequent event compared to events without a precondition. Propagation speed is assessed by the time lag between meteorological (P/T) and hydrological (Q) drivers of events, while correlations between the hydro-meteorological characteristics of successive events are used to evaluate the severity of transitions.

Through this study, regional patterns and trends in the propagation, timing, and severity of drought-flood and flood-drought transitions are identified, highlighting the role of climate and catchment characteristics in shaping these dynamics. The findings provide a basis for understanding hydrological transitions under future climate scenarios, contributing to improved risk assessment and adaptive water resource management.

 

Reference:

Hariharan Sudha S, Ragno E, Morales-Nápoles O and Kok M (2024) Investigating meteorological wet and dry transitions in the Dutch Meuse River basin.  Front. Water  6:1394563. doi: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1394563

How to cite: Sudha, S. H., Ragno, E., van der Ent, R., and Morales Nápoles, O.: Interactions Between Hydrological Extremes: Analysing drought-flood and flood-drought transitions in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11452, 2025.

EGU25-12753 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Characteristics of Agricultural Droughts Under Projected Atmospheric Changes 

Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring

Changes in climate have affected frequency and characteristics of extreme events and natural hazards. To improve understanding of possible changes of agricultural droughts in the future, we explore drought characteristics in long term future projections of Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for different future scenarios based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). To quantify the intensity of agricultural droughts, the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6) with a 65 year reference period is applied to simulations of 18 ESMs.
Drought related atmospheric variables of the simulations are validated with reanalysis datasets including ERA5 and CRU. 
For three future scenarios the projected SPEI6 distributions are analyzed globally and regionally to estimate and characterize the changes in agricultural drought in the future based on multi-model means of change rates, distributions and relative area covered by certain event types. We quantify the change of drought index values for 42 IPCC AR6 WG1 reference regions individually with a focus on those with most harvest area. For higher emission scenarios we find, in agreement with other studies, negative trends in water budget and SPEI in most of them, particularly in the Mediterranean and other arid regions. Increasing reference evapotranspiration emerges as the dominant driver for more extreme drought conditions in these regions. What is considered as the driest 2.3% months during 1950-2014 is projected to be the new normal or moderate condition in arid regions by 2100, following a high emission future scenario (SSP 5-8.5). For this scenario, 20% of the harvest regions surface is considered to be under extreme drought conditions during northern hemisphere autumn. Under a low emission scenario (SSP 1-2.6) with an expected global warming of 1.8°C it would be less than 10%.

How to cite: Lindenlaub, L., Weigel, K., Hassler, B., Jones, C., and Eyring, V.: Characteristics of Agricultural Droughts Under Projected Atmospheric Changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12753, 2025.

EGU25-13402 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Accelerating transitions between dry and wet periods in Pakistan: interconnected impacts and exacerbated vulnerabilities 

Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Fabio Russo, and Francesco Napolitano

The transition from droughts to floods poses significant challenges to socio-environmental systems, as these extremes often occur in rapid succession, leaving little time for recovery. These abrupt transitions exacerbate disaster risk, also resulting in complex interaction between drivers and impacts. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 1901 to 2023 at multiple timescales is used to better understand these dynamics in Pakistan, a highly vulnerable country. Southern Pakistan, especially Sindh and Baluchistan, is the most affected area as the analysis reveals more frequent dry events with shorter interarrival times and high drought intensity. The decreasing interval between dry and wet periods highlights increasingly rapid transitions from dry to wet conditions over time. These results underscore the limited potential for sustained recovery after drought events, which not only poses significant challenges for water resource management and agriculture but also amplifies the severity of subsequent flood impacts. To better understand these dynamics, we analysed the drought-to-flood transition that occurred between 2020 and 2022. Results highlight spatiotemporal interaction between risk components, impacts and management of cascading extremes exacerbating vulnerabilities. This underscores the pressing need for comprehensive and adaptive mitigation strategies that address the interconnected nature of these events.

How to cite: Ridolfi, E., Moccia, B., Russo, F., and Napolitano, F.: Accelerating transitions between dry and wet periods in Pakistan: interconnected impacts and exacerbated vulnerabilities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13402, 2025.

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) are a keystone species for many ecosystems of western North America, are culturally and spiritually significant for many Indigenous Peoples, and underpin a multi-million dollar industry. However, in recent years extreme summer streamflow droughts have disrupted Chinook migration and rearing patterns. Climate change is driving hydrologic changes throughout the region, but future changes to summer low flows remain highly uncertain. Here we study 375 near-natural catchments throughout the habitat range of Chinook salmon from California to Alaska. The streams span rainfall-dominated, hybrid, snowmelt-dominated, and glacial regimes. Summer discharge has decreased in most catchments, with rainfall-dominated and hybrid catchments seeing the most severe declines.

We develop linear regression models which outperform existing process-based models, and project changes to 2100 under four emissions scenarios. Summer low flows have historically been primarily driven by variability in summer precipitation and moderately influenced by winter snow accumulation and summer temperature. However, we find that future changes will probably be driven by rising temperatures because future summer temperatures could greatly exceed the historical envelope of variability. Some further declines in low flows are probably inevitable in rainfall-dominated and hybrid catchments: under a low-emissions scenario, low flows will continue to decline to mid-century but then stabilize. Under a high-emissions scenario, 1-in-50-year low flows could occur almost every summer in many rainfall and hybrid catchments. In glacial catchments summer discharge has been relatively stable in recent years because increased glacial meltwater flows have compensated for increased evapotranspiration. However, many of these glaciers are projected to disappear within 20 to 30 years, and we project severe declines in summer streamflow when this does occur.

Many populations of Chinook rear or migrate during the summer months for which we project extraordinary future streamflow droughts. It is unknown whether Chinook populations can shift their life stage timing or find alternate habitats quickly enough to avoid catastrophic impacts. Bold climate action and local mitigation strategies are urgently required to safeguard this ecologically, culturally, and economically vital species against future extreme events.

How to cite: Ruzzante, S., Ulaski, M., and Tom, G.: Rising temperatures will drive summer streamflow droughts and threaten Chinook salmon habitat throughout western North America, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13727, 2025.

Catchment hydrological response is frequently nonlinear (i.e., it varies more-than-proportionally with precipitation intensity) and nonstationary (i.e., it depends on the ambient conditions in the catchment).  This nonlinearity and nonstationarity implies that each drop of rain may affect streamflow differently, depending on how it fits into the sequence of past and future precipitation.  Thus quantifying the nonlinearity and nonstationarity in hydrological response is critical for understanding how flood behavior is shaped by catchment processes.

The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of rainfall-runoff behavior can be quantified, directly from data, using Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis (ERRA), a data-driven, model-independent method for quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships across a spectrum of time lags.  ERRA combines least-squares deconvolution (to un-scramble each input's temporally overlapping effects) with demixing techniques (to separate the effects of inputs occurring under different antecedent conditions) and broken-stick regression (to quantify nonlinear dependence on precipitation intensity).  I show how this approach yields a linearity exponent that quantifies how peak runoff depends on precipitation intensity, and a nonstationarity exponent that quantifies how peak runoff depends on antecedent wetness.

Here I apply this approach to data from experimental catchments and large-sample data sets, including the hourly versions of CAMELS and CAMELS-GB.  Results reveal that most catchments exhibit substantial nonlinearity and nonstationarity, but with little evidence of dramatic threshold behavior. 

How to cite: Kirchner, J.: Quantifying nonlinearity and nonstationarity in catchment runoff response using Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis (ERRA), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13741, 2025.

EGU25-14235 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Non-Stationarity flood frequency analysis in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin under Climate Change 

Yu Li, Jiayan Zhang, and Huicheng Zhou

Extreme floods exceeding historical records have become more frequent globally in recent years due to climate change, signaling an increasing non-stationarity in flood patterns. Traditional design floods, based on the assumption of stationarity, are no longer sufficient to ensure engineering safety and human welfare, necessitating a re-evaluation and revision of design flood standards. The Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is both climate-sensitive and a high-risk area for flood disasters. To better manage future flooding in the LMRB, six hydrological stations along the mainstream are focused to analysis flood non-stationarity. In this study, a GAMLSS model based on temporal covariates is developed and nine global climate models and two SSPs-RCPs scenarios are designed for flood peaks frequency analysis. The results show that annual maximum flood peak series exhibit significant non-stationarity, with a noticeable increasing trend across the entire basin under the BCC, CCCMa, and MIRCO climate models. In contrast, the remaining models show an increasing trend in the upstream and a decreasing trend in the downstream. When non-stationary models are constructed, the flood peak series at most stations follow log-normal and gamma distributions under different future scenarios, with both the mean and variance showing a strong linear relationship with time. Compared with traditional stationary models, future design floods present heterogeneous deviations from upstream to downstream. At the upstream Chiang Saen station, flood estimates shift from overestimation to underestimation over time, with a 5% underestimation of the 100-year flood by 2065. This suggests that additional flood control infrastructure will be needed to withstand more frequent extreme floods. Conversely, at the downstream Kratie station, an opposite trend is observed, with a 7% overestimation of the 100-year flood by 2065, suggesting that some existing infrastructure may become redundant in the future. This study providing a more accurate scientific basis for flood risk forecasting and offering new support for flood management and disaster risk reduction in the basin.

How to cite: Li, Y., Zhang, J., and Zhou, H.: Non-Stationarity flood frequency analysis in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14235, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14235, 2025.

EGU25-14666 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

National drought monitoring services in Central Europe: how well do they capture observed drought impacts? 

Nirajan Luintel, Piet Emanuel Bueechi, and Wouter Dorigo

Droughts may have severe impacts on the environment and economy, particularly in regions with high water demand and low annual precipitation. Central Europe is one such region, where droughts reportedly have led to losses in crop yield and biodiversity, disruptions in water transport, shortages of drinking water, among others. To mitigate these impacts, national weather and environmental agencies in the region have developed national drought monitoring tools. The monitoring tools enable early warning, support planning and policymaking, and foster resilience. However, the accuracy of these tools is usually unknown, since validation of such tools has been challenging due to the lack of validation data and the diversity of droughts and their impacts.  

Here, we show a quantitative assessment of national drought monitoring products of six countries in Central Europe by comparing them with a novel impact database developed within the Clim4Cast project (1). The database synthesizes impacts of drought on various sectors, including agriculture, hydrology, household water supply, economy and technology, and wildlife, reported in national newspapers published between 2000 and 2023. The drought monitoring tools comprise drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, and standardized soil moisture index with different integration periods. We assess the drought indicators in two ways: their ability to detect drought and their ability to capture the severity of the drought. First, the timing of drought impact reporting in the impact database is used to evaluate its ability to detect observed impacts. This evaluation is performed using the area-under-the-receiver-operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). The AUC value reveals how well the reported drought events are detected by the drought indicator. AUC value ranges from 0 to 1, where the value of 0.5 shows that the model is random while the value of 1 shows that the model is perfect. Second, for each reported drought event, we correlate the drought severity, as indicated by the drought monitoring tool, with the number of reported impacts in the database. 

Our results show that the performance of drought indicators varies regionally in their ability to detect drought signals (AUC values) and their ability to capture the severity of impacts observed (correlation values). The AUC values for some indicators exceed 0.85 for Czechia while in Austria, the AUC values remain below 0.6 for most of the drought indicators. Further, the AUC values first increase with longer aggregation times of the drought index, peaking at around 9 to 12 months and decreases again for longer aggregation times.  The correlation values for many drought indicators in most of the countries remain below 0.6, and the values generally decrease with increase in aggregation time. These results aid to understand the strengths and weaknesses of drought monitoring products in each country and assist to develop a common drought monitoring framework for Central Europe. 

(1) This work is supported by Interreg Central Europe and the European Union in the framework of the project Clim4Cast (grant number CE0100059). 

How to cite: Luintel, N., Bueechi, P. E., and Dorigo, W.: National drought monitoring services in Central Europe: how well do they capture observed drought impacts?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14666, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14666, 2025.

EGU25-16941 | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Pitfalls and recommendations for event detection of drought to flood transitions  

Bailey Anderson, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Lena M. Tallaksen, Alessia Matano, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Jonas Götte, and Manuela I. Brunner

In hydrology, streamflow droughts and floods are typically studied as events that are independent from one another, however, this assumption is not necessarily valid. From a physical perspective, for instance, streamflow can be autocorrelated, with signatures of past flow volumes reflected in present streamflow conditions. From a management perspective, rapid drought to flood transitions can leave strategies designed for one event counter-effective when dealing with the other extreme. Furthermore, impacts of rapid drought to flood transitions have the potential to be highly destructive.

The definition of drought and flood events can unintentionally bias detection of transitions in particular regions or for certain types of hydrological regimes or events. This can potentially alter the attributes of detected events, a problem which in a context of transitions has not yet been addressed. Thus, we aim to improve extreme event detection, with a particular focus on hydrologic transitions. We assess the sensitivity of transitions detection to different methodological choices, and we evaluate their appropriateness for various applications. We use eight global case study catchments to examine how existing methodological and parameter variation choices influence transition detection using the threshold level method. The case studies cover different hydroclimatological regimes ranging from a heavily snow driven catchment in Norway, to a semi-arid catchment in Texas, a flashy sub-alpine catchment in Switzerland, and a monsoonal regime in Australia, among others. We examine the impact of threshold type, its level, data aggregation window, and temporal transition window. 

Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses applied to these case studies, we demonstrate the following. First, the choice of event detection approach and parameters can alter the detection and duration of events, resulting in some methods detecting “transitions” where others will not. For instance, fixed thresholds are more likely to capture dry conditions, while daily varying thresholds are better at identifying anomalous conditions as compared to the normal flow regime These characteristics point to different aspects of drought to flood transitions e.g. changes in the hydrophobicity of soil or context-specific aspects of water management. Second, less extreme drought and flood thresholds than those used in the study of individual events may be appropriate because the probability of transition occurrence within a specified time period can be very low, even if the independent events are probable. This, however, can be highly regime-dependent and careful consideration of what a transition “means”, in context, is essential for meaningful interpretation of hydrologic transitions across regime types. Finally, the selected time lag between the end of a drought and the beginning of a flood event is important for determining the presence of transition periods in the time series of different hydrological regimes. We highlight the potential pitfalls of different threshold level choices to aid future research in this field, representing the first ever set of methodology guidelines for hydrological transitions research.

How to cite: Anderson, B., Muñoz-Castro, E., Tallaksen, L. M., Matano, A., Magee, E., Armitage, R., Götte, J., and Brunner, M. I.: Pitfalls and recommendations for event detection of drought to flood transitions , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16941, 2025.

Traditional flow-irrigation systems relying on water canals – primarily used for supporting agriculture purposes – supply multiple ecosystem services (ES). However, their capacity to deliver ES is threatened by climate change. The Veneto region, located in the northeast of Italy, is experiencing severe increases in drought periods followed by intense rainfall, which are undermining its dense and complex network of flow-irrigation canals.  Despite the urgency of this situation, the exposure of risk and the consequences on the irrigation systems remains unknown, and so its impact on ES. Spatially explicit models become prominent to evaluate future climate-induced events and potential consequences on ES provided by flow-irrigation systems. Results from those models can inform decision makers and planners to prepare better and efficient adaptation strategies, which will include protecting and maintaining ES.

The aim of this study is to identify and localize areas where ES are more likely to be affected by flood and drought risk in future scenarios (years 2050 and 2100). The model has been built by using k.LAB technology of ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Environment and Sustainability), an open-source artificial intelligence (AI) modeling framework. By leveraging semantics and machine reasoning, k.LAB enables the integration of independent models and datasets. Moreover, it  automatically assembles spatially explicit models into the spatial scale most appropriate for the context of analysis. By conceptualizing risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, our methodology uses spatial multi-criteria analysis to aggregate multi-dimensional information into a single parameter output map.

The study resulted in three major findings. First, the model outputs predicted the impact of droughts and floods on ES provided by the irrigation system. Second, risk maps show the future distribution of both hazards at the level of the water canal spatial unit. Third, hotspot maps identify where ES will be more likely threatened by floods and droughts. We conclude our study by discussing how policy makers and planners can effectively use these analyses to guide better plans.

How to cite: Santini, A., Balbi, S., Casali, Y., and Masiero, M.: A spatially explicit risk model to evaluate future drought and flood impacts on ecosystems services provided by flow-irrigation systems: a case study in northeast Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17099, 2025.

EGU25-17135 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Meteorological drought development, intensification and termination mechanisms: an Australian review 

Chiara Holgate and the Coauthors of the Australian meteorological drought review

Over the last decade, our understanding of meteorological drought has evolved from an understanding of the mechanisms causing droughts to develop, to include an understanding of how they intensify and terminate. In this review, we show that the understanding of Australian drought has evolved from one that associates drought primarily with large-scale processes typically related to low precipitation, towards an understanding of the importance of processes that promote heavy to extreme precipitation. It is now understood that Australian meteorological droughts develop and intensify largely through a sustained absence of synoptic systems responsible for strong moisture transport and ascent, together with an absence of wet phases of large-scale modes of climate variability. The return of these heavy precipitation-promoting processes is key to drought termination, and can play a role in post-drought flooding. This presentation will summarise this new mechanistic understanding of Australian meteorological drought, drawing on observational, climate model and machine learning-based research. Furthermore, this presentation will outline a research agenda to address identified knowledge gaps to better the understanding, simulation and prediction of drought in Australia and around the world.

How to cite: Holgate, C. and the Coauthors of the Australian meteorological drought review: Meteorological drought development, intensification and termination mechanisms: an Australian review, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17135, 2025.

The frequency and severity of droughts have intensified in recent decades, significantly impacting water availability and human and ecological systems. This growing trend highlights the need for a comprehensive exploration of drought characteristics and their interconnected dynamics, such as the timing of onset and severity. More often, streamflow drought onset time and deficit volume show nonlinear interdependencies. The seasonality of streamflow response is a widely used indicator to assess flood probabilities, catchment classifications, and even regional frequency analysis. However, understanding streamflow seasonality in influencing low flows across different climate regimes is mainly unexplored. This study investigates streamflow droughts considering daily observations from 1160 global catchments spanning disparate climate regions between 60°N and 60°S. Our analysis indicates that approximately 12% of sites demonstrate pronounced seasonality, significantly affecting drought severity with a dependence strength greater than 0.6. In particular, 50% of sites in the tropics, 11% in subtropics, and 9% in the temperate regime show substantial seasonal impacts on the drought severity, highlighting the diverse influence of seasonality across different climatic zones. Approximately 16% of sites show a significant trend (p<0.10) toward earlier onset, whereas 34% show delayed arrival in streamflow droughts, which indicates possible nonstationarities in low-flow seasonality, potentially impacting other drought properties, severity, and duration. Considering the nonlinear dependence strengths between onset time and deficit volume in a bivariate probabilistic framework, we attempt to investigate the severity of hydrological droughts, conditional to their onset seasonality. Examining representative catchments from each climate zone, we find that winter (Dec - Feb) droughts tend to be more severe than other seasons in temperate and subtropical climate regimes. In contrast, catchments in the tropics experience more severe droughts during the summer (Jun - Aug). While winter droughts are more persistent in the tropics and subtropical regions, summer droughts tend to be longer in temperate regions. The developed model offers a probabilistic forecast of seasonal droughts and helps to assess forecast uncertainty, aiding water management during extreme low-flow seasons and water years. This approach underscores the critical role of incorporating seasonality into drought hazard assessments to enhance water security adaptations in a changing climate. 

How to cite: Raut, A. and Ganguli, P.: Developing a Multivariate Probabilistic Framework to Model Onset Seasonality and Event Magnitude of Streamflow Droughts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17168, 2025.

The high temporal and spatial variability of runoff generation processes makes it difficult to identify runoff source areas (partial or variable source areas), which may contribute to flooding, especially to the flood peak. Several methods have been introduced to model runoff process or map dominant runoff processes. However, no method can map areas contributing to the flood peak. This study introduces and defines flood source areas (FSA), presents the Flood Peak Source Area Index (FSAI) for quantification and comparison, and evaluates the effectiveness of classifying these areas by a new law in Germany, which is supposed to improved flood protection and risk reduction.

The distributed process-based hydrological model RoGeR was used to simulate runoff generation processes like Hortonian overland flow, saturation overland flow, subsurface stormflow, and deep percolation triggering groundwater flow to calculate the FSA. We simulated observed flood-generating rainfall-runoff events and design rainfall events with a 50-year return period, three durations (1h, 6h, 24h), and two initial soil moisture conditions (dry and wet) in six meso-scale catchments in south-west Germany representing the main soil types and geological settings in Germany. The analysis has three steps. For each scenario, the peak discharge period was determined based on the time between the "peak value -10%" before and after the peak. The second step finds source areas for each runoff generation process within the defined peak period based on travel times to the catchment outlet. These defined areas were intersected with RoGeR's spatial runoff generation maps for each runoff component and time step in the third step.  To define the FSAI, we divided the maps of contributing runoff (mm) for each runoff component by the total catchment runoff (mm) during the flood peak period. This is repeated for all runoff components and added to get the quotient of total runoff to the runoff peak volume. Areas with values >1 significantly contribute to flood peak, while those with values < 1 contribute less. With overall a value of one, the entire catchment would contribute equally to the flood peak.

Results show that FSAI > 1 are occurring on 10-60% of the catchment area, depending on event and catchment. On the other hand, 15% to 90% of the catchment area have an FSAI of zero, indicating no flood peak contribution, but this is highly variable by catchment and event characteristics. FSA vary in size and location depending on the event, making them non persistent in space. The FSA patterns vary depending on initial soil moisture, precipitation intensity and duration, spatial distribution, and flood peak shape. Scale dependence matters too. FSAs vary in extent and location depending on the flood hydrograph reference point (catchment outlet). This study found no clear FSA in a watershed to map. FSA can occur anywhere in a catchment, making retention measures to reduce flood risk difficult to establish. But the study also found that roads, urban areas, and wetlands have a disproportionally higher FSAI, indicating their high sensitivity for flood genesis and making runoff reduction in these areas most effective.

How to cite: Weiler, M. and Kirn, L.: Flood source areas: can we map areas in a catchment contributing to flood peaks?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17281, 2025.

EGU25-18679 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Global models show strong spatial variation in compound drought occurrence 

Pihla Seppälä, Marko Kallio, Lauri Ahopelto, Amy Fallon, Pekka Kinnunen, Matias Heino, and Matti Kummu

Droughts are among the most devastating natural hazards, driving conflict, migration, and socioeconomic changes worldwide. Compound droughts – where meteorological, hydrological, and soil moisture (agricultural) drought co-occur – have greater ecological and socio-economic impacts than individual drought types. However, existing knowledge about global-scale compound droughts is limited, as research is mostly focusing on smaller areas and the propagation of meteorological drought to other types, typically considering just two different drought types.

Here, we use an ensemble of 9 model outputs from the ISIMIP3a experiment (H08, WaterGAP 2.2e, Miroc-Integ-Land, forced with 20CRv3-ERA5, 20CRv3-W5E5, GWSP3-W5E5 reanalysis datasets) with daily outputs of precipitation, soil moisture and discharge to compute empirical drought indices. Focusing on severe drought events with index value (intensity) below -1.5, we analyse event characteristics as well as probability and duration of compounding for 1961–2020. 

We found significant variability in duration and probability across different hydrological regions (hydrobelts) and drought indices, with results sensitive to the drought type used as basis for the comparison. The largest differences in duration and probability between hydrobelts occurred with soil moisture drought as the basis of analysis, while meteorological drought as the base showed the smallest differences. Compound drought durations were longer in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly near the equator. Soil moisture and hydrological droughts had longer median durations than meteorological droughts and therefore higher probabilities of compounding. The high probabilities were concentrated in northern latitudes and Asia for soil moisture drought and were globally more evenly distributed for hydrological. Analysing the influence of ENSO revealed longer durations and higher probabilities globally during El Niño compared to La Niña months. The uncertainty in the probability of compounding shows large spatial variation and was found to depend on the model, climate forcing, drainage basin size and the hydrobelt.  

Our results may help prepare regional or national drought management plans by providing insights into the spatial characteristics and probability of compound droughts. However, until the uncertainty in global modelling is addressed, and new methods or simulations are provided, the benefit is limited.   

How to cite: Seppälä, P., Kallio, M., Ahopelto, L., Fallon, A., Kinnunen, P., Heino, M., and Kummu, M.: Global models show strong spatial variation in compound drought occurrence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18679, 2025.

EGU25-19095 | Orals | HS2.4.1

Persistent uncertainties in the magnitude of future river floods 

Nans Addor, Natalie Lord, Jannis Hoch, and Simbi Hatchard

Air can hold more moisture as temperature increases, leading to more extreme precipitation events. Yet, in many locations, this does not result in larger river floods. Here we use global projections to explore differences in the response of the atmosphere and catchments to an increase in global mean temperature. We focus on changes in the amplitude of extreme precipitation events and river floods per °C above pre-industrial levels. We rely on global projections produced as part of the ISIMIP2b and ISIMIP3b projects based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models, respectively. We compute changes in the median of annual maxima based on periods of 31 years on 0.5° global grids. 

We find that whilst extreme precipitation is projected to increase over a large majority of the land area, a much smaller fraction of the land area is projected to show an increase in extreme flow magnitude. Importantly, whilst there is high model agreement that extreme precipitation will increase, agreement that future flows will increase is significantly lower. Specifically, ensemble spread for fluvial changes is typically wider and more likely to encompass both increases and decreases than for pluvial changes. We connect these discrepancies to changes in land-surface processes projected by the global hydrological models, highlighting the importance of river flood drivers other than extreme precipitation and illustrating the limits of using a Clausius-Clapeyron narrative to predict future changes in river floods. We compare ISIMIP2b and ISIMIP3b projections to underline the persistence of uncertainties in the magnitude of future river floods and discuss their implications for adaptation.

How to cite: Addor, N., Lord, N., Hoch, J., and Hatchard, S.: Persistent uncertainties in the magnitude of future river floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19095, 2025.

EGU25-20568 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.1

Cataloguing soil moisture droughts on a global scale since 1980 

Jan Řehoř, Rudolf Brázdil, Oldřich Rakovec, Martin Hanel, Milan Fischer, Rohini Kumar, Jan Balek, and Miroslav Trnka

To describe droughts at the global scale, many variables can be employed to express their extent, duration, severity or dynamics. To identify common features of global land drought events (GLDEs) based on soil moisture modelling, we prepared a robust method for their delimitation and classification (cataloguing). Estimates of root-zone soil moisture from the SoilClim model and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) were calculated over global land from 1980–2023. Using the 10th and 20th percentile thresholds of soil moisture anomalies, outputs of the two models were merged into a united dataset of drought affected areas in a 10-day step with 0.1° resolution. OPTICS clustering of the gridded data was then used to identify a total of 736 GLDEs. By utilizing four spatiotemporal and three motion-related characteristics for each GLDE, we established threshold percentiles based on their distributions. This information enabled us to categorize droughts into seven severity categories and seven dynamic categories. The severity and dynamic categories overlapped substantially for extremely severe and extremely dynamic droughts but very little for less severe/dynamic categories, despite some very small droughts that have occasionally been very dynamic. The frequency of GLDEs has generally increased in recent decades across different drought categories but the increase is not always statistically significant. Overall, the cataloging of GLDEs presents a unique opportunity to analyze the evolving features of spatiotemporally connected drought events in recent decades and provides a basis for future investigations of the drivers and impacts of dynamically evolving drought events.

How to cite: Řehoř, J., Brázdil, R., Rakovec, O., Hanel, M., Fischer, M., Kumar, R., Balek, J., and Trnka, M.: Cataloguing soil moisture droughts on a global scale since 1980, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20568, 2025.

EGU25-20701 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.1

Analyzing Compound Extremes in Hydrology: A Multivariate Approach Using Correlated Time Series 

Suchismita Subhadarsini, D. Nagesh Kumar, and Rao S. Govindaraju

Traditional hydrologic design has focused on using annual maximum values. However, numerous significant hydrologic events such as active and break spells during monsoons, heat waves, and flash floods from snowmelt occur over days to weeks. These events require daily or even finer resolution data for accurate characterization. Often, impactful events result from multiple hydrologic variables exhibiting extreme behaviour concurrently - known as compound extremes - leading to different occurrence probabilities and impacts than  those extreme events identified through univariate analyses. Characterizing these extreme events is challenging due to the need for the joint consideration of multiple variables. This study introduces a novel multivariate approach using a time-varying interval-censored estimation method for copula models. This method enables the determination of design magnitudes and associated risks with compound extremes when hydrologic data exhibit (i) strong dependence, and (ii) significant ties. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated in the Godavari River Basin, India, using daily precipitation and temperature data over the monsoon seasons between 1977 and 2020. A conservative approach is recommended for estimating design magnitudes in multivariate contexts. The study examines the importance of ties and temporal dependence between precipitation and temperature data in estimating the design magnitudes of cold-wet compound extremes at specified exceedance probabilities across various spatial scales. The results show that ties and temporal dependence significantly affect design estimates. Since these characteristics are common in hydrologic data, this framework is broadly applicable for characterizing other compound extremes in hydrology.

How to cite: Subhadarsini, S., Kumar, D. N., and Govindaraju, R. S.: Analyzing Compound Extremes in Hydrology: A Multivariate Approach Using Correlated Time Series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20701, 2025.

India is infamous for the highest proportion of its population that is exposed to direct and indirect flood impacts. Despite disaster looming situations, several flood-prone basins in the country still lack adequate ground-based coverage of gauge stations; thus, hindering our comprehension of flood impacts via numerical flood modelling. Reanalysis datasets, an advancement from Earth Observation Datasets (EOD), emerge as a valuable substitute for sparse ground-based observations as they furnish relevant atmospheric and hydrological variables at high spatio-temporal resolutions. This study evaluates the efficacy of runoff and rainfall estimates from high-resolution ERA-5, JRA-55, CFSR, and MERRA Hydrological Reanalysis Data (HRD) across India for capturing flood inundation and hazards. The runoffs and rainfalls in each Reanalysis dataset are compared with the ground-based observations using various metrics such as correlation coefficient (CC) and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE). In the next step, they are considered as primary boundary conditions along with other ancillary datasets to LISFLOOD-FP, a global hydrodynamic flood model, to derive high-resolution flood maps for specific flood events. The simulated flood inundation maps are calibrated and validated against past flood incidences derived from satellite altimetry using performance indices including Hit-Rate (HR), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Error Bias (EB), and Critical Success Index (CSI).  Subsequently, the best-performing HRD for a specific basin is utilized to derive distributed design input values through extreme value analysis for various scenarios (e.g., 1 in 50-yr, 100-yr, and 200-yr). These distributed discharges are fed to LISFLOOD-FP to generate high-resolution flood inundation and hazard maps. The study, for the first time, determines the efficacy of Reanalysis products in flood mapping over data-limiting large watersheds, thus providing a solid foundation for stepping up for quantifying flood risks, even under changing climate conditions.

How to cite: Singh, H. and Mohanty, M. P.: Suitability of Reanalysis products in capturing Flood Inundation and Hazards over India: Deriving insights through Statistical tests and Numerical Flood Modeling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-755, 2025.

EGU25-4008 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

The method of predicting heavy tail of flood combined with regional envelope curve 

Chenyang Ding and Hanbo Yang

The heavy-tailed behavior of floods indicates that the occurrence probability of extreme floods is greater than that predicted by the commonly used distributions with exponential asymptotic behavior, But in practical engineering applications, the heavy tail of floods in a basin may be caused by overestimating the frequency of extreme floods in that basin. The difficulty in predicting the degree of heavy tail leads to relatively large errors in the general empirical flood frequency curves. On the other hand, regional envelope curves are widely used to characterize the flood potential of various regions worldwide. We have developed a new method that combines regional flood envelope curves to predict and correct the appropriate flood magnitudes in similar regions, including dividing regions based on hydrological information and estimating the appropriate range of predicted floods through quantile regression. Flows exceeding this range are considered extreme and overestimated, while those below this range are considered to neglect the heavy tail and underestimated. In this study, we used flood data from at least 2,000 stations across China. Although the heavy tail of floods affects the flood frequency curve, the new method that combines regional flood envelope curves can better estimate the empirical frequency curve of the basin.

How to cite: Ding, C. and Yang, H.: The method of predicting heavy tail of flood combined with regional envelope curve, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4008, 2025.

EGU25-4433 | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

Rain-on-snow runoff events in mountainous catchments under climate variability and change 

Michal Jenicek, Ondrej Hotovy, Ondrej Nedelcev, and Jan Seibert

Mountains are sensitive to the increase in air temperature because it causes a shift from snowfall to rainfall, resulting in a decrease in snow storage. This further affects the runoff regime, including runoff extremes such as rain-on-snow (RoS) events and floods. In this study, we attributed these climate changes to simulated variations in RoS events using a sensitivity analysis of precipitation and air temperature and evaluated the subsequent effects on ROS-related runoff responses. We selected 93 catchments in Czechia and Switzerland, representing both high alpine and rain-snow transition areas. We used a conceptual catchment model to simulate snow storage and runoff for the reference historical period and for the ensemble of 24 climate perturbations reflecting the expected increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation.

Changes in RoS due to climate change were highly variable between regions, between elevations and within the cold season, with RoS occurring most frequently at elevations between 1000 and 2000 m a.s.l. RoS days are expected to become less frequent with future increases in air temperature, especially at lower elevations. The +4°C perturbation suggested a decrease in RoS days by about 75 % for the Czech catchments. In contrast, the Swiss catchments may respond less sensitively, with the number of RoS days even increasing, especially during the winter months and at higher elevations, which may be further enhanced by increased precipitation. The contribution of RoS events to total annual runoff is expected to decrease from 10% to 2-4% for the +4°C perturbation in the Czech catchments and from 18% to 5-9% in Switzerland. However, the contribution of RoS to runoff may increase in winter months, especially for climate perturbations leading to an increase in precipitation, demonstrating the joint importance of air temperature and precipitation for future hydrological behaviour in snow-dominated catchments. The results have important implications for climate change adaptation strategies, such as water management, flood and drought protection, or hydropower.

How to cite: Jenicek, M., Hotovy, O., Nedelcev, O., and Seibert, J.: Rain-on-snow runoff events in mountainous catchments under climate variability and change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4433, 2025.

EGU25-5026 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.2 | Highlight

Changing precipitation extremes on the global domain 

Gaby Gründemann, Ruud van der Ent, Nick van de Giesen, Lukas Brunner, Enrico Zorzetto, and Martyn Clark

Global warming is reshaping the water cycle, driving changes in the intensity, seasonality and timing of precipitation extremes. These shifts have far-reaching consequences for flooding, soil erosion, landslides, and debris flow, requiring a comprehensive analysis of both historical trends and future projections. The research presented here integrates historical observations, advanced statistical methods and climate model simulations to assess global and regional changes in precipitation extremes. The work reveals how the timing and seasonality of historical precipitation extremes have already shifted in many regions. Future projections suggest a robust increase in the magnitude of precipitation extremes, particularly under high emission scenarios, and that the rarest extremes are expected a further intensification compared to more common ones. The results show large spatial variability, emphasizing the importance for regional climate adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Gründemann, G., van der Ent, R., van de Giesen, N., Brunner, L., Zorzetto, E., and Clark, M.: Changing precipitation extremes on the global domain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5026, 2025.

EGU25-6310 | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

Inferring extreme river floods from everyday hydrologic dynamics 

Stefano Basso, Hsing-Jui Wang, Sumra Mushtaq, Pietro Devò, Arianna Miniussi, Larisa Tarasova, Ralf Merz, Marco Marani, and Francesco Marra

The idea that extreme river floods are intrinsically different from smaller, more frequent floods underlain the estimation of possible flood magnitudes for decades, and was further advocated in recent years. At the same time, newly developed approaches proved the possibility of predicting the occurrence of extreme floods based on the features of more ordinary runoff events, in a way refuting the initial claim.

Here we give an overview of these approaches that enable inferring extreme floods from everyday hydrologic dynamics, by focusing on recent results by the authors. The methods, which are rooted in the Physically-based (PhEV) and Metastatistical (MEV) Extreme Value distributions, account for the role of antecedent catchment conditions (considered stochastically) and runoff generation processes in shaping the flood hazard.

We show that the possible occurrence of extreme floods and the emergence of heavy-tailed flood distributions and flood divides (i.e., marked increments of the magnitude of rarer floods) are predicted by metrics of everyday discharge dynamics. We present how knowledge of runoff generation processes can be used in the MEV framework to predict extraordinarily large river floods. We finally show that combining the MEV and PhEV frameworks allows for obtaining reliable estimates of rare floods with no need of a careful preliminary choice of the distribution of ordinary events with a particular tail, currently a critical step of the MEV approach.

How to cite: Basso, S., Wang, H.-J., Mushtaq, S., Devò, P., Miniussi, A., Tarasova, L., Merz, R., Marani, M., and Marra, F.: Inferring extreme river floods from everyday hydrologic dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6310, 2025.

China is severely impacted by extreme precipitation and flooding, with annual average direct economic losses from flooding exceeding $30 billion over the past few decades. To safeguard the population and assets, China has constructed numerous hydraulic infrastructure projects, with the total reservoir capacity doubling nationwide from 1991 to 2022. However, while many studies have explored the impact of extreme precipitation on flood losses, the specific effects of hydraulic infrastructure on these losses remain inadequately quantified. In this study, we employ statistical methods to analyze the influence of extreme precipitation and reservoir capacity on flood loss rates at the provincial level from 1991 to 2022. Our results show that both extreme precipitation and reservoir capacity significantly affect flood losses in most provinces (p < 0.05), with opposite directional effects. This study demonstrates that incorporating the effects of hydraulic infrastructure significantly improves the accuracy of flood loss assessments, underscoring the importance of including human activities in flood risk evaluations.

How to cite: Cui, S. and Zhao, J.: The effects of extreme precipitation and reservior construction on flood losses in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6865, 2025.

EGU25-6966 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.2

Flood generation processes shape fatality and economic losses in Europe 

Jiarui Yu, Dominik Paprotny, Ralf Merz, and Larisa Tarasova

Flood impacts are expected to exacerbate due to climate change and socio-economic development, and more efforts in adaptation measures are required to meet future challenges. Although it is believed that frequent exposure to flooding contributes to adaptation, it is still unclear whether or not we are well-adapted to flood events generated by the most common processes. Here we analyze counterfactual impact footprints of flood events generated by different processes in 971 European catchments for the period 1960—2010. We show that flood experiences of the most common processes do not guarantee better adaptation for them due to the failure to transform frequent flood experiences into effective targeted measures and the limitations of learning from experiences. Hence multiple flood characteristics generated by diverse processes still shape fatality and economic losses in Europe. Long rainfall on dry and wet soils and snowmelt are more impactful flood generation processes in the Atlantic and Central-Alpine, Mediterranean, and Northern regions.

How to cite: Yu, J., Paprotny, D., Merz, R., and Tarasova, L.: Flood generation processes shape fatality and economic losses in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6966, 2025.

EGU25-7259 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

Evaluating infiltration models for urban flood assessment: a case study of Pamplona, Spain 

Javier Fernández-Fidalgo, Paola Bianucci, Enrique Soriano, and Luis Mediero

Hydrology science provides different methods to estimate infiltration: physically based, semi-empiric, and empiric models. Several researchers have compared the adequacy of these models to different conditions, such as soil types and land uses. Most of them were applied to agriculture and natural/forest lands. One of the main conclusions provided by such studies is that land cover is the most relevant factor, even more than soil texture. As a result, infiltration estimates in urban areas are subject to significant uncertainty. Some of the most employed models in infiltration evaluation are Green-Ampt (GA), Horton, Kostiakov and Philip. GA and Horton methods are particularly prevalent in applications involving urban areas. In addition, some studies showed that combining infiltration methods with flow redistribution models could improve the infiltration analysis performance.

In addition, in the last few years, 2D hydraulic models have incorporated improved functionalities to simulate urban floods generated by short and high-intensity storm events in small catchments. Such models usually include both GA and curve number (CN) infiltration equations for characterizing infiltration processes, obtaining runoff amounts and simulating flooding water depths, velocities and extents.

In this study, we assessed the hydrological response of urban basins in flood events in terms of the selected infiltration equation. We employed two 2D hydraulic models, HEC-RAS 2D and IBER, to analyze the hydrological response of an urban catchment in the city of Pamplona (Spain). We compared the results of two infiltration equations, GA and CN, considering different rain patterns. Firstly, we used twenty-one synthetic hyetographs ranged from 2-yr to 200-yr return period and three hyetograph peak positions (centered, left-skewed and right-skewed). Secondly, we also considered the precipitation fields with a time step of 10 minutes for two real storms. The results show that the GA model provides larger flooding extents than the CN model. In addition, the IBER model simulates larger flooding extents than the HEC-RAS 2D model. Differences appear to be more significant for smaller total rainfall depth storms.

How to cite: Fernández-Fidalgo, J., Bianucci, P., Soriano, E., and Mediero, L.: Evaluating infiltration models for urban flood assessment: a case study of Pamplona, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7259, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7259, 2025.

EGU25-8590 | Orals | HS2.4.2

Changes in flood-generating processes in France 

Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Strohmenger, Louis Heraut, and Eric Sauquet

The impact of climate change on flooding is quite contrasted in different regions, and often the trends observed can be explained by differentiated changes in flood-generating processes. This study is based on an unprecedented exercise to model the impacts of climate change on hydrology in France, using a semi-distributed model (GRSD) applied to 3727 basins with 22 climate simulations for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Annual maximum flows were extracted for the period 1975-2100, and trend analysis was carried out on both flood magnitude and flood generation processes. Trends in flood magnitude are contrasted, with increasing trends only in the northern half of France, but multi-model convergence rarely exceeds 60%. The increase is greatest for the rarest floods and under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the southern regions, there is an overall decreasing trend in flood magnitudes. Antecedent soil moisture trends follow the same spatial pattern, with an increase mainly in the north-east of France, and decreasing trends in southern basins. The fraction of direct runoff contribution during floods rises sharply in the northwest and the Alps mountains, while the contribution of snowmelt is decreasing in all mountainous regions. Regarding changes in flood-generating processes, the proportion of floods linked to soil saturation excess is increasing mostly in north-eastern France, while decreasing in the south. Conversely, the ratio of floods induced by short and intense rainfall events is increasing in southern and north-western France, most notably under the RCP8.5. The number of rain-on-snow and snowmelt-driven episodes is decreasing across the whole country. This type of approach makes it possible to disentangle the relative influence of different flood-generating processes on trends in flood risk and consequently attribute these changes. 

How to cite: Tramblay, Y., Thirel, G., Strohmenger, L., Heraut, L., and Sauquet, E.: Changes in flood-generating processes in France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8590, 2025.

EGU25-10127 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

The historic Yangtze River floods: Role of multiscale storm movement 

Yixin Yang, Long Yang, Gabriele Villarini, Ye Shen, and Fang Zhao

The Yangtze River Basin (YRB) has repeatedly witnessed devastating, widespread floods. While extensive research has been devoted to understanding the impact of large-scale synoptic conditions and river regulations on these events, the role of storm dynamics has received much less attention; this is also true for a comprehensive comparative analysis among these historic floods, crucial for flood protection. Here, we employ rainfall and flood observations, reanalysis datasets, and large-scale hydrodynamic simulations to revisit the historic Yangtze River floods, with a special focus over middle and lower reaches. We find that these disastrous Yangtze River floods are a product of persistent heavy rainfall during the warm season and anomalously wet antecedent condition. The 1954 flood, for instance, is characterized by anomalous timing of the rainfall peaks, early across the upper reaches and delayed at middle-lower reaches. This leads to synchronized and elevated flood peaks along the main streams. We discern a preferential direction of storm movement for the 1954 flood, aligning perfectly with the river flow along the main tributaries. We will quantify the contributions of storm motion and timing to flooding in the YRB through space-time decomposition and hydrodynamic simulations for several historic flood events.

How to cite: Yang, Y., Yang, L., Villarini, G., Shen, Y., and Zhao, F.: The historic Yangtze River floods: Role of multiscale storm movement, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10127, 2025.

EGU25-11391 | Orals | HS2.4.2

Identifying the drivers of flood generation mechanisms and their seasonal variabilities.  

Hadush Meresa, Adam Griffin, Alison Kay, and Jamie Hannaford

Extreme rainfalls and floods have caused severe socio-economic and environmental losses in most parts of the world and are predicted to exacerbate due to the changing climate. Highly saturated soil, extreme rainfall, and heavy snowmelt are the most common flood triggers. However, the relative contributions of extreme rainfall, excess soil moisture, and snowmelt and how they are vary with time and change from catchment to catchment are not fully understood. This information is critical for a better understanding of flood generation mechanisms and can improve flood risk management plans and strategies. We examined precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture at daily time scale from more than 671 hydrological stations across the country. Our main objectives were creating flood driving mechanisms according to hydrometeorological characteristics, identifying the contribution of independent variables (excess soil moisture, snowmelt, extreme rainfall) and understanding the spatial and temporal variability of mutual information.

The relative importance of each variable and its respective flood-generating processes were identified by combining the multilinear regression and ANOVA approaches. we confirm that most of peak flows are strongly associated with both the extreme rainfall (67%) and excess soil moisture (26%) conditions. There is a clear difference in flood magnitude and their respective generating mechanisms between regions, and regions with an expected decrease in soil moisture into the future were highly statistically correlated with a decrease in annual average peak flood magnitude. The role of extreme rainfall is the most dominant factor across the UK; however, seasonal total rainfall is not a strong influencing factor of peak floods in the southern UK. Extreme rainfall and peak floods are positively corrected with catchment drainage area. This linkage between drainage area and the most common flood generation mechanisms is crucial to quantifying the magnitude and level of flood risk in ungauged catchments.

How to cite: Meresa, H., Griffin, A., Kay, A., and Hannaford, J.: Identifying the drivers of flood generation mechanisms and their seasonal variabilities. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11391, 2025.

Flood retention basins are a crucial element in flood protection strategies. Local studies have clearly demonstrated their effectiveness in significantly reducing flood discharges, thereby minimizing potential downstream damage. However, the impact of these retention basins on reducing flood discharges at the large river basin scale remains unclear.This study investigates the influence of reservoirs and dams on flood discharge reduction in Germany. Using the spatially distributed hydrological model SALTO, daily discharges from over 1500 gauged catchments between 1951 and 2020 were simulated. The model incorporates the effects of 530 reservoirs and flood retention basins on daily runoff volumes. Calibration at 700 gauging stations allows for regional parameterization of the model based on the PASS method. The study examines various scenarios, including the absence of reservoirs for flood protection and changes to the storage capacity and function of individual reservoirs. It not only assesses the reduction of runoff peaks but also analyzes changes in the duration of individual flood events and their spatial extent, considering the complex network of 530 reservoirs. In essence, this research contributes to the ongoing discourse on the effectiveness of flood retention basins and provides insights into the nuanced roles of reservoirs and dams in shaping the hydrological landscape. The findings offer valuable guidance for optimizing flood protection strategies, considering storage capacities, operational functions, and the broader spatial and temporal aspects of flood events.

How to cite: Merz, R. and Merz, B.: Reshaping the Flood? - Analyzing the Large Scale Impact of Reservoirs and Dams on Flood Reduction in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12262, 2025.

EGU25-13251 | Orals | HS2.4.2

Analyzing trends in ordinary and extraordinary rainfall extremes by using fragmented records 

Pierluigi Claps, Paola Mazzoglio, Daniele Ganora, and Alberto Viglione

Understanding trends in rainfall extremes is essential for managing hydrological risks and designing climate-resilient infrastructure. Among the European countries, Italy presents a complex case study for such analyses due to its diverse topography, ranging from sea-level plains to alpine peaks, and its fragmented hydrological datasets.

This study investigates trends in short-duration rainfall extremes (1 to 24 hours) across Italy using annual maximum rainfall depths measured by rain gauges, coming from the Improved Italian - Rainfall Extreme Dataset (I2-RED), a collection of more than 5000 time series spanning the period 1916–2022.

Two complementary methodologies were employed. The Mann-Kendall test was initially applied together with the evaluation of the Sen’s slope to assess trend significance and magnitude. This approach, however, suffered the presence of highly-fragmented time series, covering different periods. Then, to address data fragmentation, a distributed quantile regression approach was used, pooling data within defined radii around grid cells. This latter approach ensured consistency across regions with different spatial and temporal densities while maintaining sensitivity to local variations and allowed for a robust analysis of trends in the median (0.5 quantile) and higher quantiles (0.95 and 0.99), enabling the identification of spatially coherent clusters of positive and negative trends.

The results reveal substantial variability across regions, with higher quantiles showing more pronounced changes than the median, indicating faster changes in extreme events compared to more ordinary rainfall. The median values of the 1h annual maxima show an increase all over the country. For the 24h duration, opposite tendencies can emerge even at close distances. The findings emphasize the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall trends in Italy and their implications for hydrological design.

How to cite: Claps, P., Mazzoglio, P., Ganora, D., and Viglione, A.: Analyzing trends in ordinary and extraordinary rainfall extremes by using fragmented records, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13251, 2025.

EGU25-14818 | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

A Machine Learning Framework for Post-processing Satellite Observations of Soil Moisture in Urban Areas 

Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Soroush Shayeghi, Elizaveta Litvak, Leila Rahimi, and Hamid Moradkhani

Soil moisture, a key hydrologic variable that determines hydroclimatic extremes including catastrophic flooding, is generally considered less important in cities compared to natural, agricultural and rural areas due to the prevalence of impervious surfaces. However, recent empirical studies on stormwater runoff reduction by turfgrass lawns (which cover nearly half of the cumulative urban area in the USA), have demonstrated that soil moisture is a highly significant factor in urban flooding. Yet, urban soil moisture remains highly uncertain due to the high heterogeneity of urban land cover and irrigation practices. Although in-situ soil moisture data are very limited in urban areas, satellite-based soil moisture products provide spatiotemporally continuous datasets worldwide. However, existing products are subject to substantial errors in urban areas due to the complexity introduced by a combination of impervious surfaces, built structures, green spaces and the effects of landscape management activities, especially irrigation. Post-processing of satellite-based soil moisture promises to resolve this issue and help improve the accuracy of urban soil moisture products. Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based framework for post-processing satellite-based soil moisture products in urban areas. Using this framework, we post-processed the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI) daily soil moisture product in two cities in the USA with contrasting geographic locations, climates and vegetation covers: Los Angeles and Tallahassee. Los Angeles is located in the State of California on the West Coast and has a semi-arid climate and mild vegetation cover, while Tallahassee is located in the State of Florida on the East Coast and has a humid subtropical climate and very high vegetation cover. Land surface characteristics (imperviousness and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index—NDVI), precipitation and air temperature were used as inputs in the ML model. The model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Our findings indicate that ML-based post-processing substantially improved the accuracy of CCI soil moisture products in both cities. At five monitoring sites in Los Angeles, R2 increased from 0.00-0.29 to 0.81-0.86 and RMSE decreased from 0.06-0.15 m3/m3 to 0.02-0.07 m3/m3. At the three monitoring sites in Tallahassee, R2 increased from 0.01-0.07 to 0.88-0.92 and RMSE decreased from 0.06-0.12 m3/m3 to 0.01-0.02 m3/m3. Our analysis also revealed that five-day antecedent precipitation had the greatest importance for improving the satellite-based soil moisture data at the sites in Los Angeles and Tallahassee. The framework developed in this study can be used to improve the accuracy of other satellite-based soil moisture products and advance urban flood projections around the world.

How to cite: Ahmadisharaf, E., Shayeghi, S., Litvak, E., Rahimi, L., and Moradkhani, H.: A Machine Learning Framework for Post-processing Satellite Observations of Soil Moisture in Urban Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14818, 2025.

EGU25-17678 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.2

How has flood flashiness evolved across the UK? 

Chenlu Yang, Shasha Han, Joshua Larsen, Louise Slater, Jamie Hannaford, and Ed Pope

Floods are one of the most common natural hazards in the UK. Significant changes in flood behaviour in the UK have been observed in previous research, including notable shifts in flood frequency, magnitude, and timing. Flood hazards are increasing in some regions, with high-magnitude floods occurring over shorter durations (i.e., becoming ‘flashier’). These flashier floods develop rapidly and tend to have high peak flows, leaving less time for flood warnings and emergency response, which can potentially lead to more severe impacts. However, studies on flood flashiness are limited. Our study aims to investigate changes in flood flashiness across the UK using an event-based approach. A total of 158,682 individual flood events were identified across 354 selected UK catchments between 1980 and 2019. Two flashiness metrics, the flashiness index (FI) and rate of change (RoC), were employed to quantify the rapidity of river flow changes during flood events, with FI measuring flow variability and RoC assessing the rate of flow increase. Statistical methods (e.g., Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator) were applied to detect trends in flashiness across all the study catchments. Spatial patterns of flashiness changes were examined on both long-term and seasonal scales. In addition, correlation analysis was performed to explore potential relationships between flashiness patterns and catchment attributes (e.g., catchment area, slope, longest drainage path, and the degree of flood attenuation due to lakes and reservoirs). Preliminary results indicate that increases in flood flashiness were regionally focused in some cases, but also spatially heterogeneous in many others. Flood events mostly occur in winter. accompanied by significant trends in flashiness changes that diverge in direction regionally, with northeast Scotland experiencing significant increases, whereas most other regions showing significant decreases. The two metrics, which capture different aspects of flashiness, correlate with various catchment attributes (e.g., FI decreases with increasing catchment area). Moreover, rainfall patterns, pre-event soil moisture conditions, and urbanization are likely key factors influencing the observed geographical and temporal variations. Further exploration is required to understand how these factors influence the observed patterns and how their interactions contribute to changes in flashiness. These insights are expected to inform the development of more effective flood management strategies.

How to cite: Yang, C., Han, S., Larsen, J., Slater, L., Hannaford, J., and Pope, E.: How has flood flashiness evolved across the UK?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17678, 2025.

EGU25-17805 | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

Future flood frequency curve of the Arno River (Central Italy) by using bias-corrected convection-permitting model projections in a semi-distributed hydrological model 

Enrica Caporali, Jerome El Jeitany, Genc Gordi, Roberto Deidda, Marco Borga, and Marco Lompi

Understanding how climate change affects the frequency and magnitude of floods is essential for adaptation strategies. Usually, the impact of climate change on extreme weather and floods is assessed using the projections of the Regional Climate Model (RCM) in a hydrological model. Nevertheless, RCM projections are usually too coarse to describe convective storms, and they can underestimate the intensity of short-duration extreme precipitation that is usually responsible for flash flood events in small river basins. For this reason, Convection Permitting Models have been proven to perform better than RCM in describing sub-daily extreme precipitation.

The objective of the work is to assess the impact of climate change on the flood frequency of the Arno River basin using CPM projections to also better describe future flood hazards in its small tributaries. The hydrological model used in the analysis is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+). The projections used as input of the model are VHR-PRO_IT, Very High-Resolution Projections over Italy (Raffa et al., 2023). The projections have a 2.2 km spatial resolution and 1h temporal resolution, and they cover 90 years from 1981 to 2070 in the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. First, the model has been calibrated with 15 years of observed data. Then, the projections have been bias-corrected and used as input in the continuous hydrological model. Therefore, SWAT+ performs a continuous hydrological simulation for 90 years at the hourly timestep.

The bias correction of the precipitation projections has been done with a parametric approach (Mamalakis et al., 2017) to adjust the frequency distribution of precipitation events. The correction of temperature projections has been done with an easier approach based on the linear scaling of monthly average temperatures. The bias correction used ground observations of rain gauges and thermometers of the Hydrological Regional Service of the Tuscany Region.

The results are expressed with a delta-change approach to extract possible trends in the simulated discharges. The delta change expresses the ratio between the peak discharge associated with a given return period T in the future and the peak discharge for the same frequency in the historical period. The Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) is used to fit the cumulative distribution of the annual maximum series for three-time windows of 30 years: 1981-2010 (Historical), 2011-2040 (Near Future), and 2041-2070 (Far Future). The results show an increase in the flood hazard in the city of Florence in the RCP8.5, especially in the far future.  

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: The research is carried out within the RETURN – multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT comUnities undeR a changiNg climate Extended Partnership and received funding from the  European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Caporali, E., El Jeitany, J., Gordi, G., Deidda, R., Borga, M., and Lompi, M.: Future flood frequency curve of the Arno River (Central Italy) by using bias-corrected convection-permitting model projections in a semi-distributed hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17805, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17805, 2025.

EGU25-19670 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.2

Evaluating Compound Flood potential in Indian Estuaries under Non-Stationary Climate Conditions 

Sachin Bhere and Manne Janga Reddy

Climate change and anthropogenic influences alter the primary flood drivers, such as sea surge, rainfall, and river flow, leading to shifts in flood risk patterns. The traditional assumption of stationarity in flood risk assessments is increasingly inadequate, as it fails to account for the dynamic interactions between these drivers. This study presents a framework to evaluate the potential for compound floods under non-stationary conditions, which considers the changing dependencies and risks between sea surge, river flow, and rainfall. The framework employs dynamic copulas to capture time-varying relationships and assess the compounded risk of multiple flood drivers.

The proposed model is applied to Indian estuaries, focusing on east- and west-flowing rivers contributing to the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. By examining flood events in these regions, the study demonstrates how the potential for compound flooding is amplified under non-stationary conditions compared to traditional stationary assumptions. The results reveal that the compound flood potential increases by 11% to 18% across Indian estuaries, indicating heightened vulnerability to extreme flooding events. This finding underscores the need for updated risk assessments that incorporate non-stationarity, particularly for coastal regions, where the interplay of climatic and hydrological variables is increasingly complex.

The study highlights the importance of adopting non-stationary models for flood risk evaluation in light of changing environmental conditions. By integrating dynamic copula-based approaches, this research offers a more accurate and practical framework for understanding and mitigating compound flood risks in the context of climate change.

How to cite: Bhere, S. and Reddy, M. J.: Evaluating Compound Flood potential in Indian Estuaries under Non-Stationary Climate Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19670, 2025.

EGU25-19860 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.2

Hydrological Sensitivity Mapping: Insights into Finland's Watershed Dynamics 

Temitope Akinyemi, Ville Kankare, Tua Nylén, and Petteri Alho

The classification of Finland's watersheds based on morphological and environmental characteristics into hydrological sensitivity levels is crucial for understanding and managing the country's diverse catchment areas. In climate research, hydrological sensitivity often refers to the relationship between precipitation and temperature increases. However, in this study, hydrological sensitivity is defined as the degree to which Finland's watersheds respond to environmental factors and changes, such as variations in water flow and runoff. This sensitivity is influenced by several factors, including the morphometric characteristics of the watershed, soil type, land cover, and lake coverage, which determine how water flows, is absorbed, and is retained within the watershed, impacting runoff patterns, flood potential, and sediment transport.

This study adopts a national-level multiscale approach to categorise catchments using a combination of morphological and environmental variables. By integrating these factors, we seek to describe the variation within Finnish watersheds and classify them into various sensitivity levels. Data were sourced from the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) and the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK). Watershed boundaries, morphometric data, soil type, land cover, and lake coverage were analysed. Morphometric analysis included calculations of basin geometry, stream network characteristics, stream texture, and relief parameters.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was utilised to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the most influencing variables contributing to watershed sensitivity. The PCA approach determined the strongly correlated components, and the weight of each variable was determined using the weighted sum approach method. Compound values were then calculated based on the weighted values and preliminary ranking to indicate the hydrological sensitivity levels, which were divided into five classes—ranging from very low to very high.

The results were visualised through maps and charts, highlighting hotspots of hydrological sensitivity. This research provides valuable assessments into the hydrological characteristics and behaviour of Finland's watersheds, supporting targeted interventions for effective environmental management and informed policy-making.

How to cite: Akinyemi, T., Kankare, V., Nylén, T., and Alho, P.: Hydrological Sensitivity Mapping: Insights into Finland's Watershed Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19860, 2025.

EGU25-392 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

The Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Methods on Future Hydrological Cycle Intensification Across European Catchments  

Vishal Thakur, Rakovec Oldrich, Johanna R. Thomson, Rohini Kumar, Martin Hanel, and Yannis Markonis

Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is a crucial component in hydrological modelling. It represents the water demand of the region, and thus, it can influence drought assessments, partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration (Budyko framework), and climate change impact studies. Many studies have focused on the impact of PET on future runoff changes, with limited consideration of other hydrological components (actual evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture, and total water storage). However, few studies examine how different PET methods affect future changes in hydrological cycle components. Understanding these impacts and uncertainties is crucial for the intensification of hydrological cycle studies. This study aims to investigate the impact of potential evapotranspiration on the intensification of the hydrological cycle for the future across European catchments covering all European climates. A mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) is employed to assess hydrological cycle components for each catchment. Five ISIMIP climate models were used to simulate historical (1950-2014) and future (2015-2100) hydrological cycle components for three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Twelve widely used PET methods were considered, ranging from the simplest (temperature-based) to the most complex approaches (radiation and combinational-type). In total, 557 catchments from energy-limited, mixed, and water-limited categories were analyzed. Our initial analysis reveals that annual-scale hydrological cycle components simulated by all climate models are broadly consistent with historical observation-based datasets of Thakur et al. (2024). At the monthly scale, temperature-based PET methods demonstrate greater variability than radiation and combination methods. In summer, complex PET methods overestimate mean monthly PET, while temperature-based methods align better with observations. Our findings improve the understanding of the potential evapotranspiration’s role in the future hydrological cycle intensification and its associated uncertainties across European catchments.

Reference: Thakur, V., Markonis, Y., Kumar, R., Thomson, J. R., Vargas Godoy, M. R., Hanel, M., and Rakovec, O.: Unveiling the Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Method Selection on Trends in Hydrological Cycle Components Across Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-341, in review, 2024.

How to cite: Thakur, V., Oldrich, R., Thomson, J. R., Kumar, R., Hanel, M., and Markonis, Y.: The Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Methods on Future Hydrological Cycle Intensification Across European Catchments , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-392, 2025.

EGU25-648 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Modelling Streamflow Responses to Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Lake Basin in Türkiye 

Hatice Kılıç Germeç and Hasan Yazıcıgil

Streamflow dynamics in lake basins are highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean region of Türkiye. In such basins, reduced inflows are among the main causes of declining lake levels, making streamflow dynamics a critical factor in maintaining hydrological balance. The studied basin, a RAMSAR-designated site, has experienced a significant decline in lake water levels, approximately 17 meters since the 1970s, due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the hydrological responses of the lake basin to climate variability, focusing on streamflow contributions under future climate scenarios.

Streamflow contributions to the lake were simulated using the HEC-HMS hydrological model for an area of 1123 km² with two gauged and 24 ungauged sub-basins. Model calibration (2003–2009) achieved a PBIAS of 16.97 and an NSE of 0.61, while validation (2009–2011) resulted in a PBIAS of 12.99 and an NSE of 0.50, demonstrating satisfactory performance. Simulations using regional precipitation and temperature data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models over the period 2020–2060 suggest a slight decrease in streamflow. This decrease is primarily driven by altered precipitation patterns and increased evaporation rates. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of climate change impacts on hydrological systems and provide practical insights for adaptive water management in similar ungauged basins worldwide.

How to cite: Kılıç Germeç, H. and Yazıcıgil, H.: Modelling Streamflow Responses to Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Lake Basin in Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-648, 2025.

EGU25-929 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

A Novel Approach for Assessing Non-stationarity in Hydroclimatic Extremes 

Achala Singh, Priyank J. Sharma, and Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu

The escalating frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events, driven by climate variability and change, rapidly alters hydrological patterns and thus renders the traditional assumption of stationarity in hydraulic design and water resource planning obsolete. This study addresses the challenges posed by high spatial and temporal variability of extreme events, particularly in tropical and semi-arid regions, where understanding the processes driving short- and long-term climate changes remains complex. A novel non-overlapping block-stratified random sampling (NBRS) framework is proposed, integrating multiple nonparametric statistical tests to assess non-stationarity (NS) in hydroclimatic extremes. A modified NBRS framework incorporates a nonparametric clustering approach to detect spatial clusters of NS, caused by shifts in mean, variance, and distribution, or combinations of these factors. The NBRS framework distinguishes between weak and strict forms of stationarity and is further enhanced by a modified variant that identifies the stochastic processes influencing NS. A comparative assessment of the NBRS framework and its modified version with conventional trend and change point methods demonstrates its ability to identify time-invariant characteristics, especially in heteroscedastic variables like extreme rainfall and streamflow. This framework is applied to 28 hydroclimatic indices derived from over four decades of data from west-flowing river basins of India, which are characterized by diverse physio-climatic conditions. The modified NBRS approach effectively identifies NS in extreme hydroclimatic indices, elucidating its root causes and significant implications for hydrologic design. The findings reveal that traditional trend and change point tests are less effective in capturing time-invariant characteristics, particularly in heteroscedastic variables such as extreme rainfall and streamflow. Also, the distributional shifts predominantly drive NS in rainfall and streamflow extremes, whereas temperature extremes are influenced by changes in both mean and distribution properties. Valuable insights into the evolving patterns of hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate can be drawn from this study.

Keywords: Non-stationarity, Hydroclimatic extremes, Statistical analysis, Climate change, Spatial clustering, Extreme weather events.

How to cite: Singh, A., J. Sharma, P., and S. V. Teegavarapu, R.: A Novel Approach for Assessing Non-stationarity in Hydroclimatic Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-929, 2025.

EGU25-2701 | Orals | HS2.4.3

What determines hydrological systems’ resilience to climate change? 

Gunnar Lischeid, Justus Weyers, Elena Macdonald, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

The increasing frequency of extreme climatic events challenges both science and water resources management. Flood risk assessment on the one hand, and drought risk assessment on the other hand are usually considered the tasks of different sub-disciplines. However, recent studies suggest that the two might be more closely related than widely assumed. There is some evidence that the information content of stream discharge in regard to groundwater systems is widely underrated and that groundwater dynamics is key for long-term flood risk assessment. Here we bring together two different lines of evidence in order to gain better understanding of how the interplay between groundwater and streams determines regional hydrological systems resilience to climate change.

On the one hand, findings from a joint analysis of 292 time series of stream discharge and groundwater head from a 36,000 km2 region covering a 43 years period are reported. Spatial variability, that is, different behaviour at different sites, could largely be traced back to spatially varying input reflecting regional climatological patterns, and to different degrees of damping and low-pass filtering of the hydrological input signal in the subsurface. Stream discharge and groundwater head dynamics differed in regard to the latter, but not without remarkable overlap. Both for stream discharge and groundwater head the degree of low-pass filtering was very closely related to long-term trends, similar as in other studies (Lischeid et al. 2021). Beyond that there was no clear distinction between surface and subsurface hydrological dynamics.

The second study aimed at determining the key drivers of extreme floods based on 73,350 synthetic hydrographs from a comprehensive modelling study, comprising 163 catchments with 450 model realizations each. On the one hand, tail heaviness of flood distribution was assessed by the shape factor of the extreme value distribution (Macdonald et al. 2024). On the other hand, a newly developed Cumulative Periodogram Convectivity (CPC) index was tested which is based on the degree of low-pass filtering of hydrological time series. Both indices were closely related to the extreme value behaviour of precipitation, to the upper subsurface storage and, to a lesser degree, to catchment area. However, these relationships were less close for the shape factor which suffered from the problem of fitting an extreme value distribution to bent flood frequency curves. In contrast, the CPC index was much more robust.

To conclude, low-pass filtering of hydrological signals in the subsurface proved to be the unifying element for stream discharge and groundwater head as well as for flood and drought hazard characteristics. Contrary to usual expectations, time series of deep groundwater head rather than of shallow groundwater or stream discharge turned out to be the most efficient early warning indicators for the effects of climate change in regard to extreme events. Thus common analysis of runoff and groundwater hydrographs is strongly recommended for science and water resources management.

 

References:

Lischeid et al. (2021), Journal of Hydrology 596, 126096, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126096

Macdonald et al. (2024), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 833–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-833-2024

How to cite: Lischeid, G., Weyers, J., Macdonald, E., and Vorogushyn, S.: What determines hydrological systems’ resilience to climate change?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2701, 2025.

EGU25-3083 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Earlier emergence of high-flow changes at higher elevations 

Paul C. Astagneau, Raul R. Wood, and Manuela I. Brunner

The magnitude, frequency and spatial extent of hydrological extremes are changing because of climate change. However, the sign and magnitude of projected future changes in high flows remain uncertain in many regions, including Switzerland, because of internal climate variability, which causes streamflow fluctuations on annual to decadal timescales. To disentangle the changes in high flows that can be attributed to climate change from those related to internal variability, one needs to quantify this uncertainty. For this task, one can use single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), which are climate models composed of different members representing equally plausible realisations of the climate. In this study, we use the climate variables projected by a 50-member SMILE at the daily time step as inputs to a hydrological model to project future changes in high-flows for a large set of catchments in Switzerland. We calculate changes in high streamflow quantiles and changes in the seasonality of maximum annual streamflows to investigate the changes in high flows between current climate and future conditions until the end of the century. We then calculate the signal-to-noise ratio and the time-of-emergence to determine where and when these changes are significant. We show that under the RCP8.5 scenario (1) high flows are likely to decrease at high elevations and increase at low elevations; (2) annual streamflow maxima are projected to occur earlier at high elevations and later at low elevations; and (3) the high flow change signal emerges from internal climate variability before 2050 at high elevations and after 2050 at low elevations. Our findings will likely have implications on flood frequency estimation in the alpine region.  

How to cite: Astagneau, P. C., Wood, R. R., and Brunner, M. I.: Earlier emergence of high-flow changes at higher elevations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3083, 2025.

EGU25-3736 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

How changes in future precipitation impact flood frequencies: a quantile-quantile mapping approach 

Luigi Cafiero, Miriam Bertola, Paola Mazzoglio, Francesco Laio, Günter Blöschl, and Alberto Viglione

Flood risk management institutions and practitioners need accurate and easy-to-use approaches that incorporate the changing climate conditions into flood predictions in ungauged basins. The present work aims at developing an operative procedure to include the expected variation in precipitation extremes in flood frequency analysis. We relate Flood Frequency Curves and Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves through quantile-quantile relationships. Assuming that the percentage variations of precipitation and flood quantiles are linked by the quantile-quantile relationship, we obtain modified Flood Frequency Curves accounting for the projected changes in precipitation extremes. The methodology is validated in a virtual world based on the Rational Formula approach where flood events are the result of the combination of two jointly distributed random variables: extreme precipitation and peak runoff coefficient. The proposed methodology is found to be reliable in basins where flood changes are dominated by precipitation changes rather than variations in the runoff generation process. To illustrate its practical usefulness, the procedure is applied to 227 catchments within the Po River basin in Italy using projected percentage changes of precipitation extremes from CMIP5 CORDEX simulations for the end of the century (2071-2100). With projected changes in 100-year precipitation ranging from 5 to 50\%, the corresponding variations in 100-year flood magnitudes are expected to span a broader range (10 to 90\%), reflecting substantial heterogeneity in catchment responses to rainfall changes. 

How to cite: Cafiero, L., Bertola, M., Mazzoglio, P., Laio, F., Blöschl, G., and Viglione, A.: How changes in future precipitation impact flood frequencies: a quantile-quantile mapping approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3736, 2025.

Climate change significantly impacts the hydrological system, river flows, and available water resources. In this study, we have investigated the potential impact of climate change on the Lake Tana water resources by using data generated from two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) (i.e., MIROC5 and MPI) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Climate data, mainly precipitation and temperature, was generated for the two future time horizons (the 2040s (2020-2049) and 2070s (2050-2079). The lake temperature is increasing for all RCP scenarios and time domains. The result confirmed that lake evaporation and rainfall increased for all future scenarios. The ungauged surface water inflow also increased in the 2040s time domain, while gauged watershed surface inflow increased for RCP4.5 (2070s) and RCP8.5 (2040s) and decreased for RCP4.5 (2040s) and RCP8.5 (2070s). Performance indices such as reliability, resilience, and vulnerability were used to assess the performance of the Lake Tana reservoir under climate change. The time-based and volumetric reliability have an average value of less than 80% in both the 2040s and 2070s under all scenarios. The resilience values are below 50%, which indicates that the reservoir will take a long time to recover from the shortage. The dimensionless vulnerability has also a value of less than 50%, indicating that the reservoir will be discharged by sufficient inflow to satisfy the demands. From the performance measures, the reservoir will not somehow have good performance due to the increase in upstream abstractions (small and large-scale irrigation). Facing future climate and according to hydrological changes, reservoir rule curves have been developed that can help for the sustainable use of the resources.

How to cite: wubneh, M. A., Stumpp, C., and Strohmeier, S.: Reservoir performance assessment and operations in Lake Tana, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, in response to climate change and water management., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4439, 2025.

EGU25-4559 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

A probabilistic approach to disentangling climate change & land use change effects on river flows 

Nicholas Wray, Lindsay Beevers, and Athanasios Angeloudis

Determining the respective attribution proportions of climate change and land use change to streamflow changes in river systems is of increasing interest to researchers and practitioners tasked with managing river basins. We propose an extension to established techniques of attributing the relative proportions of climate change (CC) and land use change (LUC) drivers to streamflow change by instead considering the proportions as distributed through a probability density function rather than as a point value. The novel method is demonstrated for parent catchments (catchments not nested within any other and not sharing any water flows with any other catchment) across Scotland. Results are determined by the flow, temperature and precipitation data, and by analysis of the change in these vectors. The ratio of the LUC and CC attribution proportions (LCAP) is then more appropriately expressed as a vector of values, each associated with its own probability value within a probability density function (pdf).  Results demonstrate that the LCAP ratio pdf can vary considerably through time, can be expressed as a probabilistic estimate within confidence limits and that it is possible to track physical changes in the catchment in the evolution of the probability density function.  Particular metrics for the LCAP ratio, such as the median value through time, can be derived from the pdf.  The LCAP ratio resulting from analysis is also a function of the flow metric chosen – change in high flows (e.g. Q05) is generally more driven by CC whereas low flows (e.g. Q95) are more driven by LUC.  It can also be concluded, with a high degree of confidence, that for Scottish catchments in general, and for much of the time, both CC and LUC are significant drivers of streamflow change, but it can also be shown that there is a relationship between the magnitude of the LCAP ratio and certain physical catchment descriptors such as area, median catchment height or shape compactness. Hence, these findings may have implications for future catchment flood management utilising nature-based solutions to reverse landscape degradation and mitigate effects of climate change, provided that the economic and social costs are outweighed by the benefits.

How to cite: Wray, N., Beevers, L., and Angeloudis, A.: A probabilistic approach to disentangling climate change & land use change effects on river flows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4559, 2025.

Whether flow is relatively young or old when it passes by the catchment outlet is a strong indicator of weathering processes, biogeochemical reactions, nutrient availability, pollution susceptibility and the hydrologic response of a catchment. It depends not only on individual catchment, climate, event and vegetation properties, it is also the result of a multitude of interactions between different processes and catchment states within the hydrologic system.

In order to begin to disentangle the cause-effect chains, we employed the physically-based, spatially explicit 3D model HydroGeoSphere in a virtual catchment running 270 scenarios with different combinations of catchment, climate and vegetation properties. For example, we looked at the influence of vegetation density and rooting depth while also considering different soil moisture conditions that modify the relationships between water ages and vegetation properties. In the same way, we varied the hydraulic conductivity of the soils and observed the water age relationships conditional on antecedent soil moisture. It became clear very quickly that simple, straightforward dependencies between individual catchment, vegetation, event and climate properties do hardly exist.

This is to show that, in order to make meaningful predictions about the age of hydrologic fluxes, it is inevitable to consider more than one variable when predicting biogeochemical responses at the catchment scale. Thus, it can be extremely helpful to look at the individual properties and the processes they control, their potential interactions and interdependencies, in a bottom-up approach within the framework of a hydrologic model.

How to cite: Heidbüchel, I., Yang, J., and Fleckenstein, J.: How climate, catchment and vegetation characteristics impact water flux partitioning and transit times at the catchment scale – a modeling study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4583, 2025.

EGU25-5400 | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Modelling Climate Change Impact on Seawater Intrusion using Density-Dependent Flow model 

Husam Baalousha and Marwan Fahs

As the supply of freshwater for several coastal towns worldwide, as well as for agricultural and industrial uses, coastal aquifers are crucial to the sustainability of communities. However, because of rising sea levels and altered rainfall patterns, climate change has a significant effect on these aquifers. The issue is made worse by anthropogenic effect from excessive pumping. When combined, they can result in substantial seawater intrusion, which has an impact on coastal towns and users and presents difficulties for sustainable development.

 

A limited number of studies have been done on the hydrogeological and environmental conditions in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, especially on seawater intrusion and climate change impact. Mitigating the effects of climate change requires an understanding of the relationship between seawater intrusion and climate change. this study fills this knowledge gap by examining the long-term impacts of climate change on seawater intrusion in the area.

 

A density-dependent transport model was developed using SEAWAT to simulate seawater intrusion under three scenarios. These scenarios accounted for projected sea level rises of 0.58 m, 0.70 m, and 0.91 m, respectively, with recharge rates ranging from 4.5 to 5.89 mm/year. Simulation time extends until the year 2100. The results indicated a substantial inland shift of the freshwater-saltwater interface, with the horizontal extent of saltwater encroachment increasing over time.

The study shows that the major contributor of seawater intrusion effects results from sea level rise, and the effect of changing precipitation in minimal and could be considered negligible.

 

Based on the results of this study, it is recommended to follow adaptive water management strategy to deal with this problem. Some measures such as lowering groundwater extraction and combining it with injection wells can have a good impact on the seawater intrusion issue. Results show that these measures demonstrated effectiveness in mitigating the impact, reducing the affected saline area in the aquifer, and reversing the saltwater-freshwater interface.

How to cite: Baalousha, H. and Fahs, M.: Modelling Climate Change Impact on Seawater Intrusion using Density-Dependent Flow model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5400, 2025.

EGU25-6234 | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Large-scale climate drivers of drought-to-flood events in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insight from CMIP6 large-ensembles 

Bastien Dieppois, Job Ekolu, Matteo Rubinato, Charles Onyutha, Clement Okia, Denis Musinguzi, Robert Bogere, Felister Mombo, Liliane Binego, Jana Fried, and Marco Van De Wiel

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasingly experiencing unprecedented drought-to-flood events, posing critical challenges to water and food security. These rapid or seasonal transitions between extreme hydroclimatic conditions underline the urgency of advancing climate adaptation strategies and enhancing risk management frameworks in the region. However, the role of large-scale climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), in influencing decadal trends in these events across SSA remains inadequately understood.

This study aims to address this gap by evaluating how well eight single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought-to-flood events in SSA. ERA5-Land data is used as the observational reference. We also investigate potential seasonal links between the probability of drought-to-flood events and large-scale modes of climate variability.

Drought-to-flood events are defined as the sequential occurrence of a flood following a drought. To capture these events, we employ a variable threshold approach for identifying droughts, while floods are characterized using absolute thresholds (50th to 90th percentiles). To assess potential differences between meteorological and hydrological definitions of drought and flood, we compare results derived from precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff datasets.

How to cite: Dieppois, B., Ekolu, J., Rubinato, M., Onyutha, C., Okia, C., Musinguzi, D., Bogere, R., Mombo, F., Binego, L., Fried, J., and Van De Wiel, M.: Large-scale climate drivers of drought-to-flood events in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insight from CMIP6 large-ensembles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6234, 2025.

EGU25-6409 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Streamflow sensitivity regimes of alpine catchments and their relationship with elevation, temperature, and glacier cover 

Sebastian Gnann, Weiler Markus, and Kerstin Stahl

Alpine streams supply water to mountains and downstream regions, but their sensitivity to climatic variability is complex. Here we resolve seasonal and elevation-dependent patterns of streamflow sensitivity using long-term records from the European Alps. For each week of the year, we fit a multiple linear regression model that predicts streamflow as a function of temperature, precipitation, and storage (approximated by streamflow from the previous week). The resulting regression coefficients quantify the direction and magnitude of the influence of the three predictor variables and thus represent weekly sensitivities of streamflow in response to changes in temperature, precipitation, and storage. At high elevations with extensive glacier cover, weekly temperature and precipitation sensitivities peak in spring and summer when melt rates are high. At low elevations with no glacier cover, weekly temperature sensitivities are negative in summer, while precipitation sensitivities are highest under moist winter conditions. Storage sensitivities are particularly high at high elevations in winter, when streamflow is mostly sourced from subsurface storage. Our results indicate how the transition zone, which marks a change from negative to positive temperature sensitivities in spring and summer, could shift upwards with climate warming, showing that streamflow sensitivities are temperature-dependent and thus non-stationary. Weekly streamflow sensitivities enhance our understanding of the main drivers of the streamflow regime and can be used for the evaluation of hydrological simulation models.

How to cite: Gnann, S., Markus, W., and Stahl, K.: Streamflow sensitivity regimes of alpine catchments and their relationship with elevation, temperature, and glacier cover, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6409, 2025.

Droughts cause significant impact on the terrestrial vegetation ecosystem with water shortage propagating through ecohydrological processes. Understanding how drought affects the ecosystem under different hydrogeological conditions is crucial for ecosystem protection. However, it is not clear how ecosystems respond to meteorological drought (MD) under different hydrogeological conditions. This study used monthly standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), soil moisture index (SSMI), normalized difference vegetation index (SNDVI) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SSIF) to investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of propagation from MD to agricultural drought (AD) and ecological drought (ED) during 2000~2014 in the Jinsha River Basin. Based on the maximum correlation coefficients (MCC), the differences in drought propagation time of MD to AD and ED were explored in positively and negatively correlated areas. Random Forest was used to identify the impacts of driving factors on drought propagation. Results show that (1) AD was mainly positively correlated with MD while the correlation coefficients between ED and MD ranged from negative to positive. (2) The propagation time from MD to AD was shorter in summer and autumn. The propagation time from MD to ecological drought indicated by NDVI (EDndvi) was shorter than that to ecological drought indicated by SIF (EDsif) in the positively correlated areas while the result in the negatively correlated areas was in contrast. (3) Random forest results indicated that temperature (T), solar radiation (S) and precipitation (P) were key factors influencing ED in positively correlated areas, T was an important factor in controlling the occurrence of ED in negatively correlated areas. (4) SIF was more sensitive to MD and had a shorter response time in positively correlated areas. It has great potential for monitoring the response of vegetation growth to drought. MD is not the main factor threatening vegetation growth in negatively correlated areas. The findings in this study have significant implications for accurately understanding the mechanisms of the response of vegetation growth to meteorological drought and offer scientific guidance for maintaining terrestrial ecosystem health.

How to cite: Li, C., Zhang, X., and Li, H.: Heterogeneous Influences of Driving Factors on the Propagation from Meteorological Drought to Agricultural and Ecological Droughts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6676, 2025.

EGU25-6712 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Winter flooding in the Elbe - antecedent conditions vs seasonal weather 

John Ashcroft, Alison Poulston, Marius Koch, and Georg Ertl

In winter 2023/24 along the Elbe River catchment in Germany, river flows were considered high or severe (European Flood Awareness System), and flooding impacted approximately 1.6 million people across Europe (International Disaster Database). Winter river floods are driven by both immediate seasonal weather events and the antecedent conditions accumulated over the preceding summer and autumn. Understanding the relative contributions of antecedent conditions and weather, as well as their interplay, to a location’s flood risk is essential for effective flood risk management. Using a lumped hydrological model and historical records, we will show that the elevated river flow along the Elbe was primarily influenced by high antecedent conditions. Using the tools and capabilities of NVIDIA’s Earth-2 platform we are able to create a large range of AI-generated weather events and combine them with different antecedent conditions for the winter 2023/24 season. We then use our hydrological models to assess the wide range of plausible river flooding. This approach allows us to answer the question of how severe flooding across the Elbe would have been in winter 2023/24 if major storms had occurred, and the likelihood of this scenario happening in future years.

How to cite: Ashcroft, J., Poulston, A., Koch, M., and Ertl, G.: Winter flooding in the Elbe - antecedent conditions vs seasonal weather, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6712, 2025.

In the Netherlands, precipitation minus reference evaporation (Makkink) is a good indicator for groundwater recharge. In the following, this difference is referred to as potential recharge. The climate change since 1940 has led to systematic changes in precipitation and in evaporation. However, the 30-year running average of the potential recharge does not show a continuous trend over this period, but the 30-year running standard deviation steadily increases for aggregation intervals shorter than a year. This suggests that the variability of the groundwater heads may have increased also.

Analysis of a set of long timeseries of groundwater head in the Netherlands does not show such an increase in variability. In order to determine whether this is due to the properties of the groundwater system or due to other (anthropogenic) influences, simulations of the groundwater heads have been carried out using timeseries modelling with a timeseries of the potential recharge and transfer functions covering the range of responses determined in the Dutch national Groundwater head viewer. The simulations show that an increase of the variability of the groundwater heads due to the increased variability of the potential recharge is only to be expected for short response times. However, comparison of the aggregated trends of the groundwater heads with the trends of the potential recharge indicates that there is a strong anthropogenic impact besides the influence of the climate (change). Therefore, long term assessment of (geo)hydrological systems has to include land-use changes, groundwater abstraction and other anthropogenic influences.

How to cite: Zaadnoordijk, W.: How did the increasing variability of precipitation and evaporation over the past 50 years propagate to groundwater heads in the Netherlands?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7370, 2025.

Due to various characteristics of a catchment area, such as topography, size and shape, soil and climate, different flood types prevail. These types are categorized according to the flood-generating processes, which are rainfall over short to long durations and the influence of snow dynamics. Often, a flood typology is devised based on observational time series or single hydrological simulations. However, the influence of internal climate variability on flood types is not well understood and quantified yet.

Here, we apply a unique hydrological large ensemble over a central European domain featuring the catchments of the upper Danube and the southern parts of the Main and Elbe catchments. The driving climate stems from a 50-member high-resolution single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE), the CRCM5-LE at 12 km resolution. SMILEs are driven by the same external forcing and apply a single climate model – hence, the variability within the SMILE can be interpreted as a model representation of internal climate variability. After a bias adjustment, the CRCM5-LE is used to drive the physically-based hydrological model WaSiM at 3-hourly temporal resolution and 500 m spatial resolution yielding a 50-member hydrological SMILE for 98 river gauges in the study area.

For a 60-year historic period (1961 – 2020) we differentiate between five types of rain-induced and snowmelt-affected floods via a statistical flood typology analysing the hydrographs and the hydrometeorological drivers. The flood types feature short-rain floods, floods driven by medium- to long-duration rainfall, long-rain floods with frequent multiple peaks, rain-on-snow floods, and snowmelt-dominated floods.     

We show that the frequency and intensity of the different flood types largely varies between the 50 simulations indicating a strong influence of internal climate variability on the flood typology. The highest degree of variability over all catchments is found for short-duration rainfall floods. The sensitivity of the flood typology to climate variability also varies greatly over the 98 catchments. We see a tendency for a higher sensitivity of smaller catchments to internal climate variability. Further, reservoirs and lakes are found to lower the effect of climate variability on the flood types due to their buffering behaviour.

We follow that using a single time series (may it be observational or simulated) might lead to a strong under- or overestimation of flood peaks per flood type, miss the catchment-specific flood typology, and induce an under- or overdetection of trends in the flood types. Hence, we suggest the application of SMILEs for the determination of flood peak return levels and the robust trend detection of certain flood types in order to incorporate the uncertainties of internal climate variability.

How to cite: Poschlod, B., Fischer, S., and Böhnisch, A.: How does internal climate variability propagate to the catchment-characteristic flood types? Insights from a hydrological large ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8290, 2025.

EGU25-8478 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Socioeconomic development dominates changes in runoff response over 1/3 of global river basins 

Xiaojing Zhang, Pan Liu, Lu Zhang, Jiabo Yin, Weibo Liu, Qian Cheng, and Xiao Li

Global warming and human activities are altering the global hydrologic cycle, raising concerns about water availability. The rainfall-runoff relationship (RRR), determining how much rainfall becomes runoff, remains poorly understood globally, particularly regarding the influence of socioeconomic development. Here, we analyze rainfall and runoff data from 1,492 global basins over the period 1990–2015, finding that 80.5% experienced significant changes in RRRs. Using a hydrologic model-based attribution framework, we attribute these changes to natural environmental factors in 67.7% of basins and to socioeconomic factors in 32.3% of basins. Notably, among basins where socioeconomic factors dominate RRR changes, 65.9% show reduced runoff coefficients, indicating that human activities are decreasing runoff generation. Our findings demonstrate that socioeconomic developments such as population growth and GDP increase—reduce runoff by enhancing water withdrawals and consumption, thereby exacerbating water scarcity. This study highlights the substantial human impact on hydrologic processes under climate warming.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Liu, P., Zhang, L., Yin, J., Liu, W., Cheng, Q., and Li, X.: Socioeconomic development dominates changes in runoff response over 1/3 of global river basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8478, 2025.

EGU25-8866 | Orals | HS2.4.3

Streamflow elasticity vs aridity – a large sample elasticity study 

Vazken Andréassian, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Julien Lerat, and Alban de Lavenne

Hydrologists are requested to quantify the response of catchments with respect to climatic variability or climatic changes: for this, they need to be able to assess the climate elasticity of streamflow. Here, we present a large sample study, based on 4122 catchments from four continents, investigating to which extent the climate elasticity of streamflow depends on aridity, i.e. the ratio of the long-term average values of potential evaporation to precipitation. After examining the example of the “Budyko-type” water balance formulas – which embed the dependency between elasticity and aridity – we use catchment data to verify empirically the existence of this link and we discuss the possibilities to impose the dependency to aridity in elasticity in order to obtain more physically-consistent elasticity coefficients.

How to cite: Andréassian, V., Mendoza Guimarães, G., Lerat, J., and de Lavenne, A.: Streamflow elasticity vs aridity – a large sample elasticity study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8866, 2025.

EGU25-9203 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Contrasts and contradictions comparing hydrological shifts across southern Australia 

Nyree Campion, Keirnan Fowler, Margot Turner, and Joel Hall

Several regions globally have recently experienced persistent shifts in the relationship between rainfall and runoff, triggered by multi-annual drought. These regions are climatically diverse; however, no assessments have yet been undertaken to draw parallels between the processes responsible. We present a comparative analysis of non-stationarity between south-west Australia and south-east Australia, two regions separated by over 2,000km and both experiencing non-stationary streamflow responses. We adopt existing methods of characterising hydrological non-stationarity and apply these to 254 catchments in Eastern and 54 in Western Australia. Of the catchments analysed, 51% of Eastern and 63% of Western catchments displayed a transition from the historical rainfall-runoff relationship to one of reduced flow generation, with the reduced flow state persisting in 31% and 63% of catchments, respectively. Interrogation of characteristics inherent in the transitioned catchments revealed positive correlation in Western Australia between catchment forest coverage and non-stationarity, while an inverse relationship is found in Eastern Australia. Similarly, catchment coverage by land cleared for agricultural purposes was positively correlated to non-stationarity in Eastern Australia and inversely so in Western Australia. We suggest a possible link to pre-existing trends in groundwater for cleared catchments, where those in Western Australia may have been experiencing rising groundwater levels due to clearing occurring recently relative to Eastern Australia. The hydrological non-stationarity in forested western catchments is consistent with previous studies showing the importance of groundwater connectivity in those catchments; in contrast, such links are impossible to explore in eastern forested catchments due to a spatial gap in groundwater monitoring. We recommend further comparative studies be conducted to create a more thorough understanding of this behaviour in order to better inform decisions regarding water planning.

How to cite: Campion, N., Fowler, K., Turner, M., and Hall, J.: Contrasts and contradictions comparing hydrological shifts across southern Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9203, 2025.

EGU25-10377 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Exploring Climate Variability and Soil Moisture Dynamics to Refine Drought Quantification in East Asia Monsoon Regions 

Szu-Ying Lin, Wan-Ling Tseng, Min-Hui Lo, and Yi-Chi Wang

Drought extremes in hydrological systems are closely tied to soil moisture dynamics. However, the influence of climate variability on soil moisture, particularly in the East Asia monsoon region, remains insufficiently explored. This study examines soil moisture in Taiwan, combined with satellite data, to investigate the impacts of summer monsoons. For instance, the positive phase of the Pacific-Japan Pattern has been identified as a key driver of interannual extremes in compound heat and drought events. These phenomena are exacerbated by soil moisture deficiencies, which intensify dry conditions, elevate air temperatures, and result in significant societal and agricultural damage. This research focuses on the linkage between drought characteristics and climate variability from a soil moisture perspective, in contrast to traditional indices in Taiwan that predominantly rely on rainfall data. Advanced analytical approaches, such as AutoEncoder (AE) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), were utilized to enhance drought quantification by integrating satellite observations with high-resolution downscaled datasets. PCA results emphasize the critical role of interannual internal modes, like the Pacific-Japan Pattern, in driving drought conditions. However, discrepancies observed between AE and PCA outcomes highlight the need for further investigation into nonlinear relationships underlying drought dynamics.

How to cite: Lin, S.-Y., Tseng, W.-L., Lo, M.-H., and Wang, Y.-C.: Exploring Climate Variability and Soil Moisture Dynamics to Refine Drought Quantification in East Asia Monsoon Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10377, 2025.

EGU25-10507 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Hydrological evaluation of the convection-permitting regional climate model RegIPSL in Morocco 

Ouiaam Lahnik, Yves Tramblay, Lahoucine Hanich, Sophie Bastin, Aicha Ben Ahmed, Redouane Lguensat, and Jafet Andersson

Water resources in mountainous regions are affected by climate change, necessitating accurate hydrological simulations to provide plausible future scenarios for effective management. This study evaluates the added value of a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) for projecting water resources under future climate scenarios. The RegIPSL regional Earth system model, was employed to simulate the European South-West (SWE3) domain at convection-permitting scale with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. Precipitation and temperature outputs were compared to those simulated by the model with a 20 km horizontal resolution. The model simulations are available for different 10-year time periods: an evaluation period (2000-2009), a historical period (1996-2005), and a future period with the rcp8.5 scenario (2041-2050). Bias correction was applied to model outputs, using the CDF-t method with in-situ observations and satellite-based data. The corrected datasets were used to force the HYPE and CemaNeige-GR4J  hydrological models, simulating river flows in 16 river basins located in the different mountainous regions of Morocco. Result indicated that the high-resolution model significantly enhanced the simulation of hydrological variables in the different basins. The range of different basins considered allowed to characterize the model's efficiency in different aridity and topographic contexts, using hydrological signatures for each basin to analyze past performance and explore future scenarios. This research underscores the added value of convection-permitting models in advancing hydrological impact studies for complex terrains.

How to cite: Lahnik, O., Tramblay, Y., Hanich, L., Bastin, S., Ben Ahmed, A., Lguensat, R., and Andersson, J.: Hydrological evaluation of the convection-permitting regional climate model RegIPSL in Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10507, 2025.

EGU25-10775 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Can changes in precipitation regime explain the first Sahelian hydrological paradox ? An inquiry with a statistical emulator of sub-daily hydrological processes 

Oceane Dubas, Erwan Le Roux, Gérémy Panthou, Jean-Pierre Vandervaere, and Christophe Peugeot

The Sahel, the semi-arid fringe south of the Sahara, experienced severe meteorological droughts in the 70s-80s. During these droughts, several watersheds may have experienced a regime shift that led to an increase in the annual runoff coefficient (annual runoff divided by annual precipitation). This phenomenon, known as the first Sahelian hydrological paradox, has been attributed to soil crusting, a very typical feature of the sahelian region, which led to an increase in Hortonian runoff. The physical driver of this soil crusting is still debated in the literature. Standard explanations generally involve land use and cover changes (LUCCs). However, alternative explanations exist: soil crusting may have also been impacted by changes in precipitation regime (total precipitation, precipitation intensity, …). Here, we focus on the impact of precipitation regimes on annual runoff coefficient.

 

In this region, most hydrological processes occur at a sub-daily scale. However, existing observations of precipitation are only available at the daily scale. A classic way to resolve this issue is to downscale observations of precipitation at a sub-daily scale, and model processes at this scale. In practice, such downscaling always implies strong hypotheses concerning spatio-temporal dependencies of rainfall process at fine scale. Instead, we propose an alternative solution: to “upscale” sub-daily hydrological processes at a daily scale. Specifically, we use fine-scale rainfall series to force a simplified Green-Ampt (GA) infiltration model which predicts runoff at fine scale. Then we compute both annual statistics of rainfall regime from sub-daily rainfall series and annual runoff coefficients from the GA simulations ; and we infer a statistical link between annual rainfall statistics and annual runoff coefficients. This statistical emulator of the GA model predicts annual runoff coefficient based on several features: the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil (ksat), and several indicators of precipitation regime, such as the average and the maximum of daily precipitation.

 

In our results, this emulator is first trained and assessed using observations of precipitation from Sahelian stations. In this case, we show that this emulator can reproduce annual runoff coefficients produced by the GA model. We also note that ksat has more impact than annual indicators of precipitation, which may be due to the crystalline sedimentary context of our study. Then, we test this emulator on Sahelian watersheds where we have both rainfall series and observed runoff series (and thus runoff coefficients). Our preliminary results show that this emulator can reproduce observed trends in annual runoff coefficient.

How to cite: Dubas, O., Le Roux, E., Panthou, G., Vandervaere, J.-P., and Peugeot, C.: Can changes in precipitation regime explain the first Sahelian hydrological paradox ? An inquiry with a statistical emulator of sub-daily hydrological processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10775, 2025.

EGU25-11021 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

How could climate change affect the magnitude, duration, and frequency of hydrological droughts and floods in West Africa during the 21st century? A storyline approach  

Job Ekolu, Bastien Dieppois, Serigne Bassirou Diop, Ansoumana Bodian, Stefania Grimaldi, Peter Salamon, Gabriele Villarini, Jonathan Eden, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Marco Van de Wiel, and Yves Tramblay

In recent decades, West Africa has been increasingly exposed to hydrological droughts and floods. However, the extent to which these changes are related to climate change and are likely to persist during the 21st century remains poorly understood. To address this gap, this study integrates plausible regional climate change storylines, derived from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6), into physically based hydrological modelling experiments utilising the latest high-resolution setup of Open Source LISFLOOD (OS-LISFLOOD). Despite some limitations over the Sahelian region, OS-LISFLOOD shows good performances in representing the hydrological cycle and specific characteristics of hydrological droughts and floods. While CMIP6 models consistently project warming temperatures over West Africa, greater zonal contrasts and model discrepancies are found in projected rainfall changes. Overall, CMIP6 models tend to project more (less) rainfall, as well as more (less) intense rainfall, over the eastern (western) region of West Africa. However, wetter (drier) conditions are projected over larger regions in CMIP6 models simulating weaker (stronger) warming in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean air surface temperatures. Future changes in hydrological droughts and floods mirror changes in precipitation patterns. In the 21st century, we find robust significant increases (decreases) in the magnitude (duration) of floods across West Africa. Meanwhile, reduced (increased) frequency and magnitude of longer (shorter) duration hydrological droughts are found in the eastern (western and coastal) regions of West Africa. Our study stresses the importance of considering future changes in hydrological droughts and floods for effective water resource management and risk reduction across this highly vulnerable region. 

How to cite: Ekolu, J., Dieppois, B., Diop, S. B., Bodian, A., Grimaldi, S., Salamon, P., Villarini, G., Eden, J., Monerie, P.-A., Van de Wiel, M., and Tramblay, Y.: How could climate change affect the magnitude, duration, and frequency of hydrological droughts and floods in West Africa during the 21st century? A storyline approach , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11021, 2025.

EGU25-11042 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Intrinsic uncertainties in future runoff changes over Europe in the next decades 

Juliette Deman and Julien Boe

For effective adaptation planning and water resources management, it is essential to assess the intrinsic uncertainties in future runoff changes over the next decades. Over Europe, runoff variations are mainly driven by precipitation, which, in turn, is influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. Previous studies have emphasized strong teleconnections between the European climate and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability through air-sea interactions using reanalysis and observational datasets. However, these teleconnections have been suggested to be poorly represented in climate models. Here, we aim to quantify the influence of internal variability on future runoff changes in state-of-the-art climate models, to analyze the influence of these teleconnections on the internal variations of runoff at multi-decadal timescales, and to assess the realism of these internal variations.

We show that the intrinsic uncertainty accounts for at least 50% of the total uncertainty in near-term runoff changes over different European regions. At the source of the intrinsic uncertainty, we find a predominant role of atmospheric noise in the models, through the modulation of precipitation. The past multi-decadal variability of precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation is then evaluated using different observational datasets. These analyses suggest that the intrinsic uncertainty in future runoff projections is well represented in northern, western and central Europe but is underestimated over the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Deman, J. and Boe, J.: Intrinsic uncertainties in future runoff changes over Europe in the next decades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11042, 2025.

EGU25-14071 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

The role of model complexity in streamflow projections on Brazilian catchments 

André Almagro, André Ballarin, and Paulo Tarso Oliveira

The complexity of hydrological models can significantly influence the accuracy of streamflow predictions. While more complex models may seem advantageous due to their robustness, previous research found that simpler models can often yield comparable or even superior results for some applications, particularly if they are able to adequately represent key hydrological processes and features. Here, we investigated the impact of model complexity on the streamflow projection over the century in Brazil, a continental-scale country that presents hydrological and landscape heterogeneity. We employed projected climate change data from 10 models of the CLIMBra dataset over 735 Brazilian catchments, forced by the CMIP6-based SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We used five hydrological models representing a full range of model complexity: 1. Functional forms, 2. Grunsky method, 3. HYMOD model, 4. MISDC model, and 5. a regional model based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. On a daily basis (models 3 to 5), when comparing the traditional models with the LSTM, we found that LSTM overperformed HYMOD and MISDC, with a median KGE of 0.72. The MISDC presented the worst performance in daily predictions. All the models were evaluated on a long-term basis, with KGE ranging from 0.62 (Grunsky method) to 0.85 (LSTM model). The conventional hydrological models, HYMOD and MISDC presented KGE of 0.78 and 0.80, showing great suitability for Brazilian catchments, but with the disadvantage of needing local parametrization. It is also worth noting that performance metrics were improved in all cases from a daily to a long-term basis, due to the longer timescale. Regarding the streamflow over the century, when comparing an ensemble mean of climate projections, different models estimated, on average, changes from -21% to +15% in long-term mean daily streamflow. Simpler models projected a slight increase in the mean streamflow, while more complex models projected greater changes. We also found some spatial patterns of variation according to the model complexity, with greater differences in the arid catchments (where the KGEs were lower). We further discuss model complexity and performance in view of climate models' inherent uncertainties. The comparative performance presented in our study showed that while complexity can enhance performance, some simpler models can show similar outputs and might be preferred for some applications.

How to cite: Almagro, A., Ballarin, A., and Oliveira, P. T.: The role of model complexity in streamflow projections on Brazilian catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14071, 2025.

EGU25-14262 | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Prediction and Evaluation of Hydrological Factors and Drought Indices under Climate Change using CMIP6 in Monsoon Regions 

Junhyuk Jeong, Seulchan Lee, Doyoung Kim, and Minha Choi

Climate change is increasing the uncertainty of global hydrological cycles, leading to an increase in extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. While global and continental-scale hydrological analyses based on CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate change scenarios have been actively conducted, detailed analyses for specific regions are still lacking. Furthermore, comparing model predictions with observation data for the initial 10-year period (2015-2024) of climate change models is important for validating short-term forecast accuracy and enhancing the reliability of long-term climate prediction. This study evaluates the performance of the CMIP6 prediction models for air temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and soil moisture during the 2015-2024 period under the SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios. To validate the scenarios, a comparison with GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) and ERA5-Land reanalysis data is executed. Subsequently, SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) were calculated for the early (2015-2040), mid (2041-2070), and late (2071-2100) periods of climate change, to analyse the intensity and frequency of future droughts. The results show that air temperature and evapotranspiration exhibited a strong correlation, while precipitation and soil moisture showed relatively weak correlations. Based on this study, quantifying bias in climate models can contribute to improving the performance of regional climate predictions. Furthermore, it is expected to provide important information for future climate change forecasting.

 

Keywords: Climate Change, CMIP6, Drought Indices, Monsoon Regions

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the BK21 FOUR (Fostering Outstanding Universities for Research) funded by the Ministry of Education (MOE, Korea) and National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF). This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) as 「Innovative Talent Education Program for Smart City」. This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Research and Development on the Technology for Securing the Water Resources Stability in Response to Future Change Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)(RS-2024-00332300). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00416443). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-2022R1A2C2010266).

How to cite: Jeong, J., Lee, S., Kim, D., and Choi, M.: Prediction and Evaluation of Hydrological Factors and Drought Indices under Climate Change using CMIP6 in Monsoon Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14262, 2025.

EGU25-15231 | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Contribution of EO Large-sample hydrology data and multi-model approach in enhancing model stability and accuracy in arid and semi-arid regions 

Mohamed El Garnaoui, Abdelghani Boudhar, Karima Nifa, Yousra El Jabiri, and Ismail Karaoui

Water security is crucial for achieving most Sustainable Development Goals, especially health, food production, energy, and climate resilience. Given the many links between water and other SDGs, focusing efforts on achieving the water goal would inevitably facilitate the achievement of the rest. From this perspective, it is feasible for Southern Mediterranean countries, including Morocco, to partially achieve the SDGs by adopting integrated water management systems, of which hydrological modeling is an important part. However, most modeling tools and their structure often show inconsistencies in application from one basin to another, which can be explained by two factors: first, the insufficient and inaccurate input data, and second, the inherent artifacts in the model structure as well as its incompatibility with the characteristics of the basin. In this work, we propose a modeling scheme that seeks to solve the two problems related to data scarcity and model insufficiency in arid and semi-arid regions. We used a multi-source data approach combined with a multi-model approach to forecast water flow in a set of twenty sub-catchments of the Oum Er-Rbia River Basin in central Morocco, we mainly calibrated, validated and tested the model sets parameters as well as their performance behavior. This modeling exercise will lead to a comprehensive understanding of the model transferability, stability, and adaptability according to its application catchment. Our analysis of model’s performances and outputs reveals spatial and temporal variation in the prediction results of each model, where the set of models was divided according to accuracy, stability, and adaptability into high-performance models along the study field (MOPEX3/2, topmodel, hymod, GR4J, and HBV), medium-performance models (sacramento, newzeland1/2, xinanjiang, and mcrm), and failed models (MOPEX1, tank/2, and collie1). The proposed modeling sceme not only enhanced the predictive skills in the study area, but it’s also formed the basis for investigating the characteristics of the targeted catchment and thus facilitated the process of selecting the most appropriate model for each basin. Additionally, the remotely sensed data products helped to solve the problem of data scarcity in poorly or ungauged basins.

How to cite: El Garnaoui, M., Boudhar, A., Nifa, K., El Jabiri, Y., and Karaoui, I.: Contribution of EO Large-sample hydrology data and multi-model approach in enhancing model stability and accuracy in arid and semi-arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15231, 2025.

EGU25-16529 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Groundwater temperature variations in the Turin metropolitan area (Piedmont, NW Italy): what is the future? 

Elena Egidio, Manuela Lasagna, Domenico Antonio De Luca, Linda Zaniboni, and John Molson

Monitoring the qualitative and quantitative state of groundwater is a fundamental tool for investigating and preventing the effects of climate change and anthropic activities on water resources. This study represents the first investigation into the dependency of shallow groundwater temperature (GWT) on climate variability in the Turin metropolitan area (Piedmont, NW Italy).

First, a study of GWT and air temperature (AT) data on a regional scale in the time period 2010-2019 was carried out in order to understand the relationship between the two temperatures. It was possible to observe that GWT shows a general increase throughout the Piedmont Po plain, with a mean rise of 0.85 °C/10 years while AT has a mean increase of 1.69 °C/10 years.

Given these results, a 3D groundwater flow and heat transport model for the Turin metropolitan area (approximately 130 km2) has been developed using the Smoker/Heatflow numerical code. For building the model 2 different measurement campaigns of GWT in the area has been carried out during 2022.
The objective of the modelling was to better understand flow and heat transport dynamics in the shallow aquifer; moreover, a further aim was to analyse how climate change and the urban heat island of the city influences GWT, also from a forecasting perspective.

Following calibration of the model with the available data, future predictions has been made using AT data from different IPCC scenarios for the city of Turin. It has been chosen to use RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results showed for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the maximum GWT reached is 17.9 °C with an average increase of 1°C from 2022 to 2099; for the RCP 8.5 scenario the maximum GWT reached is 19.2°C with an average increase of 1.5°C from 2022 to 2099.

The development and application of this model has made possible to simulate variations in GWT on a local and city-scale in order to better understand how urban GWT will respond to the different climate scenarios in the perspective of better future management of the resource.

How to cite: Egidio, E., Lasagna, M., De Luca, D. A., Zaniboni, L., and Molson, J.: Groundwater temperature variations in the Turin metropolitan area (Piedmont, NW Italy): what is the future?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16529, 2025.

EGU25-16852 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.3

Exploring Climate Variability and Worst-Case Drought Storylines using Large Ensembles and Ensemble Boosting 

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Erich M. Fischer, Jochem Marotzke, Wolfgang A. Müller, and Robert Vautard

Understanding and robustly sampling climate variability is vital for producing reliable near- and long-term projections of water availability and drought. Climate variability on interannual to multi-decadal timescales can substantially influence precipitation, temperature, or humidity, shaping the intensity, frequency, and persistence of extreme hydrological events. Particularly for multi-year variability, such influences can lead to consecutive years of extreme hydrological stress, challenging the resilience of natural and human systems. Furthermore, sampling the worst-case, most extreme yet plausible conditions of extreme drought, potentially compounding with other system stressors, is crucial for producing comprehensive risk assessments. Regionally, climate variability can amplify or dampen the anthropogenic signal of global warming. Therefore disentangling its contribution from such anthropogenic changes is crucial to understand observed changes and how they may continue into the future, as well as to determine worst-case or unprecedented conditions plausible today.

Here, we showcase how climate variability sampling techniques such as Single Model Large Ensembles (SMILEs) and Ensemble Boosting can be used to assess how soon unprecedented extreme heat and drought stress could occur over Europe, whether it could happen successively year after year, and how intense worst-case heat and drought stress could become already today. SMILEs consists of several simulations from one climate model under the same forcing to capture the effect of freely evolving internal variability and generate a range of possible climate outcomes, from daily to centennial scales. Ensemble Boosting uses extreme conditions in a SMILE as a starting point, which are then re-run under a small butterfly-effect like perturbation to produce hundreds of physically consistent storylines that explore worst-case extremes, by amplifying the chaotic nature of climate variability around the original parent event itself. Together, these approaches are extremely powerful tools to produce risk storylines that remain physically consistent across time, space, and across variables, and that can be used to assess hydrological impacts to better prepare for the challenges posed by accelerating climate change and its influence on water resources.

How to cite: Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Fischer, E. M., Marotzke, J., Müller, W. A., and Vautard, R.: Exploring Climate Variability and Worst-Case Drought Storylines using Large Ensembles and Ensemble Boosting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16852, 2025.

EGU25-17357 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

Evaluation of multi-year droughts in global SMILEs 

Andrea Böhnisch and Laura Suarez Gutierrez

In recent years, consecutive drought years have affected large areas of the world, such as Europe in 2018-2020 and Northern America in 2020-2023.  Drought conditions on any given year pose considerable risk to agriculture, forestry, ecosystems or water and energy supply. Multi-year droughts bear the potential to aggravate such impacts due to water deficit build-up over a longer period without insufficient recovery during wet seasons. Adaptation strategies usually work for limited time and rely on recovery periods (e.g., storage lakes). Multi-year droughts thus strongly challenge current drought preparedness, adaptation and mitigation measures. 

With changing climate, droughts are projected to increase worldwide in duration and frequency. Due to legacy effects of depleted soils and self-intensification processes, the risk for full years of water deficits rises further. For well-informed adjustment of adaptation to multi-year droughts, a comprehensive assessment of their risks under current and future climate conditions is required. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the skill of climate models in simulating multi-year droughts globally. 

In this study, we identify models that perform best over different hotspot and regions where models share high, or more worryingly low skill in representing multi-year droughts. We also assess the sensitivity of multi-year drought definition to different drought metrics used, including the 6-month and 12-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For the analysis, we focus on a minimum duration of 12 months with SPEI < -1.

To sufficiently sample climate variability and produce large enough samples of extreme, multi-year droughts, we use a range of CMIP6 single-model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs). SMILEs provide multiple runs of shared forcing and model configurations, but different starting conditions and evolutions that sample the range of internal climate variability. Here, SMILEs are evaluated regarding their capability to depict multi-year droughts against reanalysis data for the recent past (1991-2020), and based on this evaluation we provide projections of the change in multi-year droughts based on best-performing models. This work presents first results on regional and global scales, acknowledging internal climate variability of the representation of multi-annual droughts.

How to cite: Böhnisch, A. and Suarez Gutierrez, L.: Evaluation of multi-year droughts in global SMILEs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17357, 2025.

Despite numerous past and ongoing efforts towards characterizing the propagation of rainfall estimation uncertainties in rainfall-runoff hydrologic models, modelers continue to struggle to identify the main features which impact the way rainfall errors are transmitted to simulated runoff. With this work, we introduce the concept of the rainfall elasticity function, i.e. the measure of how responsive the simulated event runoff is to a change in rainfall. We analytically derive the functions for two well-known runoff generation model types: the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), where the Pareto distribution is used to describe the distribution of soil-moisture storage capacity, and the Soil Conservation Service – Curve Number (SCS-CN) model. These functions are explored to examine the propagation of rainfall errors through the two models. It is shown that the two models are characterized by very different elasticity functions, which results in diverging propagation features of the rainfall errors. For the PDM case, increasing the precipitation depth, or decreasing the storage capacity, results in the elasticity growing from 1 to a peak whose value and location depend on the model parameters, and then asymptotically decreases again to 1. For the SCS-CN model, increasing the precipitation depth, or decreasing the maximum potential retention, makes the elasticity decrease from infinity to 1. The capability of the elasticity functions to describe the propagation of rainfall errors   through the models is illustrated by using data from a number of flood events occurred in the last two decades in the Eastern Italian Alps.  It is shown that the analytical functions closely resemble the results obtained by forcing the models with the actual distribution of rainfall errors, thus paving the way for the practical application of this approach, such as in hydrological model calibration and use of multi-model ensemble for flood forecasting.  

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Borga, M. and Dallan, E.: Rainfall elasticity functions: a new metric to quantify divergent runoff sensitivity to rainfall errors in hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19061, 2025.

EGU25-19472 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.3

The GEOframe system deployment in the analysis of water availability and scarcity in the Po River Basin District and model calibration strategies  

Gaia Roati, Marco Brian, Francesco Tornatore, Shima Azimi, Daniele Andreis, Giuseppe Formetta, Hossein Salehi, Sohaib Baig, Riccardo Rigon, and John Mohd Wani

As observed in the last years, extreme events, floods and droughts, have been reported to be more likely due to climate change and environmental modifications, and Italy in particular, experienced more frequent and intense drought events, with an exceptionally severe drought in 2022.

To cope with this kind of phenomena and to update the existing numerical modelling for water resource management, in 2021 the Po River District Basin Authority (AdBPo) started the implementation of the GEOframe modelling system on the whole territory of the district, aiming to provide a better quantification and forecast of the spatial and temporal water availability in its territory.

The GEOframe modelling system (Abera et al. (2017)) is a completely open-source semi-distributed conceptual model, developed by a scientific international community led by the University of Trento, characterized by a high modularity and flexibility.

The model, after the meteorological data spatial interpolation, and the geomorphological analysis, enables the simulation of all the components of the hydrological balance (e.g.: evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, water storage and water discharge).

The reference time period is the 1991-2020 time range and all the simulations processes take place in the “Hydrological Reference Units” (HRU), namely the subbasins obtained from the geomorphological analysis.

In this case the average area of the subbasins is set at 10 km2 (generating nearly 3000 HRUs), considered as a good compromise between the simulation precision and the computational space and time needed.

Consequently, the model parameters calibration was carried out according to a “zonal calibration” strategy in which the parameters are calibrated in different hydrometers. This is the most computational time-consuming phase of the model implementation, for this reason a 3 hydrological years period was selected, on the basis of water discharge data availability in the different regions of the district.

The calibration was carried out with the KGE method and consists in the research of the values of the characteristic model parameters which fit the discharge evolution recorded in the hydrometers in the best possible way, comparing the simulated discharge trend with the measured one.

The calibration of the model, as its implementation, has started in the Valle d’Aosta region, the most upstream part of the district, and proceeded going downstream, through Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia, for a total of about 150 calibrated hydrometers.

Due to the huge surface and the high complexity of the study area and of the hydrometers distribution, different actions and strategies have been tested to improve the calibration results and efficiency.

With the completion of the calibration phase, it was then analysed the impact of water scarcity on agriculture and taking a particular attention to the snow precipitation contribution.

In conclusion, thanks to the modularity of the GEOframe model, it was possible to work collaboratively on the calibration phase, lowering the time needed and improving the calibration efficiency, exchanging the results obtained and the strategy to calculate them and to carry out an analysis on water availability in the Po River Basin District up to Pontelagoscuro (FE).

How to cite: Roati, G., Brian, M., Tornatore, F., Azimi, S., Andreis, D., Formetta, G., Salehi, H., Baig, S., Rigon, R., and Wani, J. M.: The GEOframe system deployment in the analysis of water availability and scarcity in the Po River Basin District and model calibration strategies , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19472, 2025.

EGU25-799 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Evaluation of Open-source Land Use Land Cover products through SWAT Simulation 

Prashant Prashant, Surendra Kumar Mishra, and Anil Kumar Lohani

Land use land cover (LULC) datasets serve as essential and foundational spatial information for a wide range of hydrological applications. However, the availability of these datasets from various sources, each employing different algorithms and techniques, poses a significant challenge for hydrological modelling. These variations can influence the identification of hydrological features and affect the accuracy of model simulations. This study aimed to comparatively assess and evaluate openly source available LULC products ESRI LULC, ESA World Cover LULC and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)-Bhuvan for the simulation of watershed hydrology by setting up a hydrological model using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The evaluation was conducted for the Ong River watershed, a forest-cropland-dominated region within the Mahanadi River basin in India, covering an area of 4,650 sq. km. Various performance evaluation metrics were employed to assess the effectiveness of the LULC datasets, including Willmott's Index of Agreement, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R²), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and the RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR). Our research provides valuable insights for selecting appropriate LULC datasets for hydrological modeling, considering the unique characteristics of the catchment and the desired level of accuracy.

How to cite: Prashant, P., Kumar Mishra, S., and Kumar Lohani, A.: Evaluation of Open-source Land Use Land Cover products through SWAT Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-799, 2025.

This study assessed the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on groundwater changes in the Greater Cochin region of Kerala, India, over the last three decades. Future groundwater resource scenarios under changing climate and LULC were calculated quantitatively using a hydrological model and a groundwater flow model. For this purpose, remote sensing data, in-situ field observations, RCM data, computational hydrological, and groundwater flow models were used. A series of LANDSAT satellite data sets were used to analyse the historical LULC dynamics of Cochin from 1994 to 2020. The analysis indicated that the LULC changes affect groundwater recharge and historical analysis showed a decline in the recharge process. Hence the impact of LULC changes on groundwater is quantifiable. Therefore, in the next part of the study, an evaluation of the effect of LULC changes forecasted for the future was carried out using modelling. The SWAT model was used for this purpose. The projected estimate of groundwater recharge rate for projected LULC shows a decline in recharge rate of 20% in the near future, 27 % in the middle future and 30% in the far future.  The long-term effect of LULC dynamics and climate change on the groundwater table was modelled using B-GIS. The primary input for the BGIS model was the groundwater recharge distribution map, the output from the SWAT model. A drastic decline in groundwater recharge is projected for the near future compared to the middle and far future. Among various scenarios analysed, a decline of approximately one to three meters in the average groundwater level is observed for the future worst-case scenario. In a nutshell, the study indicates that the groundwater resources in the study area are at risk due to climate and LULC changes.

How to cite: Nair, A. and Bhuvaneswari, A.: A modelling approach in evaluating the effect of climate and LULC on groundwater level of Cochin, Kerala, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1337, 2025.

EGU25-1499 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Spatial location identification and effect assessment of best management practices 

Yanan Wang, Guishan Yang, Saiyu Yuan, and Hongwu Tang

Non-point source pollution poses a significant threat to global water security. Meanwhile, best management practices have been widely adopted for watershed management to address non-point source pollution. Selecting appropriate farmland management measures at suitable locations is crucial to minimizing the impact of agricultural non-point source pollution on water bodies. Using the Tianmu Lake basin as the study area, this research employed remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to identify high-risk zones, simulate various management scenarios, and assess water quality improvements. The key findings are as follows: Significant land use changes were observed in the Tianmu Lake watershed, primarily characterized by the conversion of forested areas into tea plantations and farmland. Model calibration based on experimental results met simulation accuracy requirements. Non-point source pollution hotspots were mainly concentrated in the central part of the watershed, particularly in the Daxi and Shahe sub-watersheds, due to the prevalence of tea plantations. Implementation of ecological measures such as ecological ditches, vegetated buffer strips, and nutrient removal wetlands effectively controlled non-point source pollution. These findings provide technical insights for selecting and implementing surface pollution control measures within watersheds, offering practical guidance for sustainable watershed management.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Yang, G., Yuan, S., and Tang, H.: Spatial location identification and effect assessment of best management practices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1499, 2025.

Groundwater has historically played a pivotal role in the development of human civilizations, with wells serving as essential sources of drinking water. In Krakow, groundwater currently accounts for approximately 3% of the city’s total water supply, with the majority provided by surface water. Nonetheless, groundwater is utilised within an emergency system consisting of over 350 wells. Due to poor water quality, the groundwater extracted from these wells is used exclusively for non-consumptive purposes.

This study investigates groundwater pollution in Krakow, based on the research conducted between April and May 2023. A total of 91 wells were examined, of which only 64 were active. All wells are located within the Krakow area. Electrical conductivity was measured in situ immediately after sampling, and subsequent laboratory analyses were conducted to determine the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Li+, F-, Br-, HCO3, SO42−Cl) and nutrients (NH4+, NO2, NO3, and PO43−).

The results revealed considerable spatial variability in groundwater chemistry, closely linked to the geological structure of the region. Much of the Krakow area is underlain by Jurassic limestones, Cretaceous marls, and Miocene clays overlain by Quaternary sediments. Physiochemical parameters, such as electrical conductivity, salinity, and water temperature, exhibited substantial variability, influenced by intense anthropogenic activities, particularly affecting shallow groundwaters within Quaternary sediments. The highest groundwater salinity was observed in the historical city centre, where extensive impervious surfaces contribute to runoff-related contamination. Elevated nitrate concentrations, indicative of long-term pollution, are likely caused by leaks in the combined sewage system, particularly in central part of Krakow. Furthermore, increased temperatures in shallow groundwater in the urban core underscore the impact of the urban heat island effect, highlighting the intricate relationship between urbanisation and groundwater quality.

How to cite: Gwiazda, J. and Żelazny, M.:  Beneath the pavement: The hidden nexus of urbanization and groundwater quality in Krakow, Poland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1781, 2025.

EGU25-3122 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Supporting multi-objective natural small water retention measures planning: the Cherio river basin case study, Italy 

Lorenzo Sanguanini, Enrico Antonio Chiaradia, Michael Strauch, Federica Monaco, Guido Sali, and Claudio Gandolfi

Land use change entailing the introduction of Natural Small Water Retention Measures (NSWRMs), with the objective of incrementing a basin’s hydrological resilience, is a multifaceted challenge: the stakeholders involved in the decision-making process are numerous, and even the nature of the issues affecting one specific group might be linked to different hydrological processes. The need for tools capable of identifying the best NSWRMs-comprising land use scenarios by meeting the interests of multiple stakeholders is then evident.

The primary objective of this study, conducted as part of the EU-funded Optain Project (Horizon 2020–2025), is to identify the optimal levels of NSWRM implementation in the Cherio River Basin, situated in the Po Plain. The analysis integrates environmental and socio-economic performance indicators to ensure a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed measures. The basin's primary hydrological challenges are related to flooding and summer droughts. The most promising NSWRMs identified to tackle these issues in the study area are: 1) rehabilitation of terraces, 2) detention ponds at the outlets of sewer systems, 3) buffer strips, 4) river restoration, and 5) cultivation of drought-resistant crops. These measures are modeled at specific sites using the SWAT+ model, integrated with the Contiguous Object Connectivity Approach (COCOA) developed within the Optain project harmonized informatic framework.

To identify the most effective NSWRM combinations for achieving various and sometimes conflicting objectives, the SWAT+ model has been integrated with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), a widely recognized Pareto-based optimization method. This algorithm is implemented through the Constrained Multi-objective Optimization of Land Use Allocation (CoMOLA) tool. The optimization process does not yield a single optimal scenario but instead generates a diverse set of Pareto-optimal solutions.

The CoMOLA setup involved an array of simulations comprising 100 individuals and 200 generations. For the evaluation, two environmental and two economic indicators were selected: 1) peak flow entity, 2) water availability during irrigation season, 3) NSWRM implementation cost, and 4) agricultural gross margin.

The resulting set of optimal alternatives provides a starting point for local decision-makers to conduct a comprehensive evaluation and select the most appropriate solutions that align with their preferences and strategic objectives.

How to cite: Sanguanini, L., Chiaradia, E. A., Strauch, M., Monaco, F., Sali, G., and Gandolfi, C.: Supporting multi-objective natural small water retention measures planning: the Cherio river basin case study, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3122, 2025.

Land cover influences surface water quality, as it affects the mobilization, deposition, and migration of ions through the landscape. In recent years, a large number of studies concentrated on the impact of the catchment's land cover on the water quality properties of inland water bodies in various temporal and spatial scales. Such studies, usually conducted on streams with the use of numerous land cover datasets, as well as different types of metrics, were not applied so far in the case of spring waters. In fact, the possibility of explaining the physicochemical characteristics of spring waters by land cover properties seems to be limited, as their water chemical composition is driven mainly by geological factors, such as duration of water circulation within the soil-rock matrix and type of the dominant minerals, and simultaneously, sometimes groundwater flow paths could be complicated, particularly in karst areas. However, definitely more favorable conditions for such investigations exist across lowland, post-glacial landscapes, where recharge areas of porous aquifers are spatially extended and relatively uniform in terms of sediments. Thus, the current preliminary study attempted to evaluate the relationships between the land cover and the hydrochemical properties of Quaternary spring waters. Field measurements (SEC, pH, and water temperature) and sample collection were conducted in November 2024 across 35 springs located in Mazovian voivodeship, draining sandy aquifers and laying over impermeable clays and loams. The concentrations of major cations and anions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, HCO3-, SO42-, Cl-, F-) and selected trace elements (being anthropopressure indicators) in spring waters were determined using ion chromatography and ICP-MS, respectively. A circular geometric approach (500 m and 250 m radius) was adopted to calculate the land cover type contribution across spring recharge areas. In such delineated areas, Sentinel 2 Global Land Cover and Topographic Objects Database (BDOT10k) datasets were used for land use quantification (as percentages of artificial, cultivated, and forested areas), while the Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used for linking the land cover with ion concentrations. The investigated spring waters differed in terms of TDS (from 67 to 2052 mg/L) and hydrochemical types (from simple HCO3-Ca to complex Cl-SO4-HCO3-Ca-Na). In the case of both datasets, it was documented that the type of land cover near the spring niche could act as proxy of their water chemical composition. Increased SEC values and Cl-, K+, and Na+ concentrations were significantly (p<0.05) related with the higher participation of artificial areas, whereas  concentrations of NO3- were positively linked with the share of cultivated areas. Significant positive relationships were also documented between artificial areas and selected trace elements, such as boron, chromium, nickel, copper, selenium, and arsenic, being indicators of municipal and industrial pollution. The results suggest that the land cover of spring recharge areas in a lowland landscape could affect local groundwater chemistry, however, further studies are needed using more complex land cover metrics, particularly on the seasonality of the influence. 

How to cite: Łaszewski, M.: A First Insight into the Influence of Land Cover on the Hydrochemical Properties of Spring Waters Across a Lowland Landscape, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3284, 2025.

EGU25-3322 | PICO | HS2.4.4

The human impact on the longitudinal hydrochemical profile of the Czerwonka Stream in Białka Tatrzańska (Southern Poland, Podhale region) 

Oktawia Kaflińska, Wiktoria Suwalska, Anna Bojarczuk, Łukasz Jelonkiewicz, Anna Lenart-Boroń, Klaudia Stankiewicz, Jagoda Zalewska, and Mirosław Żelazny

The Podhale region is one of the most popular tourist destinations in Poland. The most developed tourism services and infrastructure are based in Białka Tatrzańska. It’s home to a ski resort Kotelnica, which is known to use technical snow on their slopes. This village also has no proper water-sewage management, which may lead to the deterioration of surface water quality. The study aims  to demonstrate the human impact on the chemical composition and bacteriological contamination of the waters of the Czerwonka stream (in the longitudinal profile including waters from slopes), whose catchment area contains aforementioned resort.

Fieldwork involved measuring basic physicochemical parameters and collecting water samples for chemical composition and microbiological analyses. Ion chromatography instrument DIONEX ICS-2000 was used to identify 14 main ions and biogenic compounds (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH4, Li, HCO3, SO4, Cl, NO3, NO2, PO4, F, Br). We measured TOC (total organic carbon), TIC (total inorganic carbon), TC (total carbon) and TNb (total bound nitrogen) with Elementar Vario TOC cube. Bacterial fecal indicators were determined using culture-based method on selective microbiological media to identify fecal pollution.

Along the 6 km stream, sharp increase in ion concentrations, particularly Na, K, SO4, Cl, NO3, NO2, PO4 was observed (20-21/10/2023). Concentration of Na ions is 32 times higher, while Cl concentration increased 79 times. TOC concentration is 16 times higher. Such inflation is due to anthropogenically impacted tributaries from the Białka Tatrzańska village, as well as groundwaters, showing the dual genesis of Czerwonka stream’s pollution. In particular, tributary coming from quite popular thermal baths is rich in sulphates and chlorides, with steady nitrate and biogenic compounds levels. The presence of numerous fecal bacteria in water samples indicates anthropogenic contamination of the stream waters.

How to cite: Kaflińska, O., Suwalska, W., Bojarczuk, A., Jelonkiewicz, Ł., Lenart-Boroń, A., Stankiewicz, K., Zalewska, J., and Żelazny, M.: The human impact on the longitudinal hydrochemical profile of the Czerwonka Stream in Białka Tatrzańska (Southern Poland, Podhale region), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3322, 2025.

EGU25-4979 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Irrigation on Heat Waves across the North China Plain 

Qingxin Li, Yaqi Wang, Baozhong Zhang, and Zheng Wei

With climate change, the frequency of heat waves has surged dramatically in the North China Plain (NCP). Irrigation affects the occurrence of heat waves globally, but its dynamics with local climate shifts and varying irrigation levels are not well understood. To delineate the effect of irrigation on heatwave trends and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the NCP, we utilize observational data, dividing the period into 1968-1995 and 1996-2015 to distinguish climate variability and irrigation evolution. Spatiotemporal multivariate regression and a window search algorithm are used to quantify and compare the variation in irrigation effects. The results indicate that although the overall influence of irrigation is modest, contributing to a reduction of approximately 10% in heat wave development, significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity is observed. Initially, irrigation mitigated northern and enhanced southern heat waves. Over time, the focus of mitigation expanded southwest, reducing the trend of heat wave frequency by −0.162%/10a. We believe that local moisture conditions can explain these variations, which are visually represented through land-atmosphere coupling strength. Driven by climate mode shifts, overall aridity across the NCP has intensified, particularly in the southwest. The land-atmosphere coupling strength remains strong in the north but reverses in the southwest, leading to spatiotemporal heterogeneity of irrigation effects.

How to cite: Li, Q., Wang, Y., Zhang, B., and Wei, Z.: Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Irrigation on Heat Waves across the North China Plain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4979, 2025.

EGU25-5031 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Effects of seasonality and cascading reservoirs on evaporative water loss in a tropical river basin: A case study from the Deduru Oya River Basin, Sri Lanka 

Sachintha Senarathne, Robert van Geldern, Rohana Chandrajith, and Johannes A. C. Barth

In the tropics, the strong seasonality of monsoon precipitation with recurring droughts leads to large uncertainties regarding evaporative water loss in regional water balances. To address these uncertainties, this study investigated the evaporation/inflow ratio (E/I) in the Deduru Oya basin in Sri Lanka. The investigation approach relies on a revised Craig–Gordon model with stable water isotopes (δ18OH2O). A high-resolution survey was carried out, where river water samples were collected every two weeks near the river mouth during a hydrological year from November 2022 to October 2023. These fortnightly data show an overall trend of enrichment in 18O up to -1.4‰ due to the evaporation of surface waters in the basin. Based on these data, the calculated evaporation/inflow ratio (E/I) resulted in an evaporation loss of 10 ±1.2% for the entire catchment. This corresponded to 403 ±48 million m3 for 2022-2023. Meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity, as well as surface water storage and conveyance systems with many small reservoirs, were primary regulators of evaporative loss in the Deduru Oya River basin. This study provides an important dataset for a better understanding of the effects of the strong seasonality of the tropical climate and river morphology on water loss through evaporation. It lays a basis for further considerations of CO2 uptake via water use efficiency.

Keywords: Craig–Gordon, evaporation, stable isotopes, surface water, seasonal effect

How to cite: Senarathne, S., van Geldern, R., Chandrajith, R., and A. C. Barth, J.: Effects of seasonality and cascading reservoirs on evaporative water loss in a tropical river basin: A case study from the Deduru Oya River Basin, Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5031, 2025.

Hydrological and chemical studies show that in addition to natural factors (geological structure, land cover), the chemical composition of water is strongly influenced by human activity. Typically, changes in physical and chemical characteristics during floods have been studied. It is worth noting that during non-flood days, when there are no floods, there are also changes in the chemical composition of the water. The aim of this study was to find out the changes in the concentrations of nutrients and forms of carbon in water in variously land used catchments during non-flood days.

The research was carried out from 4 to 8 July 2024 in small flysch catchment (22 km2) of Stara Rzeka located in the Carpathian Foothills in southern Poland. The study points were located in selected catchments with different land uses and anthropopressures: a forested catchment, an agricultural catchment and in front of and behind the Stara Rzeka stream wastewater treatment plant. Every 2 hours, water was sampled using an ISCO autosampler (n=100). In the laboratory, the concentrations of 14 ions (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH4, Li, HCO3, SO4, Cl, NO3, NO2, PO4, F, Br) were determined by ion chromatography. In addition, results were also obtained for total carbon (TC), total inorganic carbon (TIC) and total organic carbon (TOC) (Vario TOC Cube).

The results show that in the forest catchment average concentrations of NO3 were lower (1.82 mg·dm-3) than in the agricultural catchment (36.32 mg·dm-3). On the contrary, average TOC concentrations were higher in the forest catchment (4.56 mg·dm-3) than in the agricultural catchment (1.42 mg·dm-3). It is worth noting that the average TC concentrations were higher in the agricultural catchment (55.17 mg·dm-3) than in the forest catchment (41.27 mg·dm-3). Analysis of diurnal concentrations indicates that in the agricultural catchment, as water flow decreases, NO3 concentrations increase, whereas as flow increases, NO3 concentrations decrease. In the Stara Rzeka catchment, discharges of treated wastewater change the diurnal rhythm of nutrient compounds including: NO3, PO4, which is expressed in a greater amplitude of concentrations. In the longitudinal hydrochemical profile of the Stara Rzeka downstream of the sewage treatment plant, a rapid increase in concentrations of NO3 and PO4 was observed. Reference these diurnal concentrations of ions to the Polish ministerial regulation on water quality (Dz.U. 2021 poz. 1475) indicates that water taken at different times of the day (day/night) downstream of the wastewater treatment plant were of different quality (very good, good and below good status).

How to cite: Biernacka, A.: Diurnal changes of nutrients and carbon forms in different land use catchments located in Carpathian Foothills (Southern Poland), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5274, 2025.

EGU25-8160 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Evaluation of the Impact of LULC Changes on Water Balance Components 

Shashi Bhushan Kumar and Ashok Mishra

This study assesses the impact of historical (1987–2018) and projected future (2018–2033) land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the water balance components of the Subarnarekha River Basin (SRB). The 2033 LULC spatial pattern was projected using the CA-Markov model, achieving a k-standard value of 0.7969, indicating high reliability for spatial and temporal change modelling. The SWAT model was employed to evaluate these impacts, calibrated and validated for 1987–2005 and 2006–2013, respectively. Model performance showed strong agreement between observed and simulated streamflow, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 during calibration and 0.71 to 0.84 during validation across three sub-basins: Muri, Jamshedpur, and Ghatshila. Analysis revealed significant LULC changes, with dense and open forest areas declining from 17.49% to 6.71% and 11.60% to 8.04%, respectively, while settlement and agricultural areas expanded from 2.35% to 6.48% and 45.47% to 57.53%. These changes substantially impacted water balance components, leading to notable reductions in groundwater recharge and percolation, minimal changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow, and a considerable increase in annual surface runoff. Despite these shifts, changes in average annual water yield were minimal, underscoring the significant role of LULC dynamics in shaping hydrological processes within the SRB.

Keywords: LULC changes, SWAT model, water balance, CA-Markov model.

How to cite: Kumar, S. B. and Mishra, A.: Evaluation of the Impact of LULC Changes on Water Balance Components, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8160, 2025.

EGU25-9500 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Exploring the Influence of Forest Dynamics on Flow Regimes in Alpine Watersheds 

Louis König, Tom Hands, Peter Molnar, Brian McArdell, and Harald Bugmann

Many alpine watersheds are complex and highly engineered systems designed to mitigate the risks associated with flooding and debris flows, thereby protecting downstream areas and safeguarding land. However, these engineering interventions often come with significant financial costs and environmental challenges. Thus, less engineered solutions which exploit the connections between land cover and hydrology-sediment functions to reduce risk need to be explored as alternatives. We develop and apply a novel approach that integrates forest dynamics into hydrological simulations within a landscape evolution model for Alpine watersheds.

We employ two simulation models: LandClim, a dynamic forest landscape model, and HAIL-CAESAR, a landscape evolution model. Integration between these models is achieved through two critical parameters: the m value and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET).

The m value in the HAIL-CAESAR model defines a soil scaling parameter which affects soil transmissivity and the soil water deficit in time, and thereby surface runoff and baseflow. This parameter was spatially implemented and calibrated based on hydrological response units combining soil and land use data. To investigate parameter robustness, we performed the calibration on 46 widely different catchments across Switzerland. We hypothesize that soil water storage capacity is greater in forested areas compared to pastures, agricultural land, and unproductive land, which leads to lower flood peaks and longer recession times.

The second key linkage vegetation dynamics and runoff is Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), which is calculated spatially and adjusted based on the forest leaf area simulated by LandClim. PET captures the maximum amount of water that can be lost to the atmosphere by evaporation and transpiration, thus directly impacting soil moisture levels and, consequently, the timing of surface runoff. By integrating PET into the landscape evolution model, we improved its accuracy in simulating hydrological processes, specifically enhancing our understanding how forest cover affects flow regimes.

Our findings highlight the role of forests in moderating flood peaks and timing in Alpine watersheds. We found a strong gradient of m values, with forests exhibiting slower transmissivity, which delays the onset of surface runoff. This helps to reduce and delay flood peaks, offering a natural buffer against extreme events. However, as saturation levels increase, this mitigation effect diminishes. We conclude that integrating forest dynamics into watershed management tools is a promising way to assess cost-effective and environmentally sustainable alternatives to conventional engineering approaches.

How to cite: König, L., Hands, T., Molnar, P., McArdell, B., and Bugmann, H.: Exploring the Influence of Forest Dynamics on Flow Regimes in Alpine Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9500, 2025.

EGU25-9613 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Environmental sensitivity and resistance to the intensity and frequency of drought phenomena in Europe 

Tomáš Lepeška, Jakub Wojkowski, Andrzej Wałęga, and Dariusz Młyński

Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of drought is critical for addressing the growing challenge of water scarcity across Europe. This study employs the concept of landscape hydric potential (LHP) to regionalize European water retention and investigate the regions most affected by drought over time. Building upon insights from our previous work, "Rich North, Poor South - Regionalization of European Water Retention," we examine how hydric potential varies across Europe, with a focus on the Mediterranean and Eastern European regions where drought severity has intensified.

The analysis integrates long-term hydrometeorological data, land-use changes, and socio-economic drivers to determine the key factors influencing drought dynamics. We hypothesize that human activities—such as land use, water management practices, and urbanization—are significant amplifiers of drought presence, potentially outweighing natural climatic variability in some regions. By disentangling these drivers, we aim to provide a nuanced understanding of how anthropogenic impacts intersect with natural factors to exacerbate drought conditions.

Our findings highlight the urgency of sustainable land and water management policies to mitigate the effects of drought, particularly in vulnerable regions. Furthermore, the study underscores the value of the LHP framework in guiding regional adaptation strategies, fostering resilience to water scarcity, and ensuring equitable water distribution across Europe in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Lepeška, T., Wojkowski, J., Wałęga, A., and Młyński, D.: Environmental sensitivity and resistance to the intensity and frequency of drought phenomena in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9613, 2025.

EGU25-10122 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Tree planting and soil conservation measures have strongly attenuated storm runoff response on the Chinese Loess Plateau 

Shaozhen Liu, Hansjörg Seybold, Ilja van Meerveld, Yunqiang Wang, and James W. Kirchner

Land restoration often consists of tree planting and soil conservation measures to improve infiltration and reduce erosion. Tree planting has been shown to reduce annual water yields, but its effects on peak runoff during intense storms has been difficult to determine, particularly in large basins. Soil conservation measures, such as check dams, terraces, and runoff-trapping soil contours, are expected to reduce peak flows but their effects likely depend on precipitation intensity and antecedent moisture conditions. Here we use Ensemble Rainfall-Runoff Analysis to test how tree planting and soil conservation measures have affected storm runoff responses in five large-scale basins (774-17,180 km2) on the Chinese Loess Plateau. We find that peak runoff responses decreased by up to 86% following tree planting and associated soil conservation measures, and that this decrease was proportional to the percentage increase in the Leaf Area Index (LAI). The attenuation of peak runoff was much larger than the decrease in average runoff (59%) or median runoff (24%). The largest attenuation in peak runoff response occurred during high-intensity rainfall events. This observation implies that the decrease in peak runoff response cannot arise primarily from increased canopy interception or drier soils, because these would be expected to have a larger effect on lower-intensity events. Instead, we hypothesize that the main mechanisms are likely to be reduction in runoff-generating areas and increases in infiltration.

How to cite: Liu, S., Seybold, H., van Meerveld, I., Wang, Y., and W. Kirchner, J.: Tree planting and soil conservation measures have strongly attenuated storm runoff response on the Chinese Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10122, 2025.

EGU25-10199 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Evaluation of future land use scenarios for groundwater protection and territorial sustainable development 

Pariphat Promduangsri and Cécile Hérivaux

“Human use of land has been transforming Earth's ecology for millennia” (Ellis, 2021).  Pressures on land are increasing due to land use and land cover (LULC) changes, such as deforestation, intensive agriculture and urbanization.  LULC changes significantly impact water both at the surface level and at the subsurface level – reduced infiltration and groundwater recharge, and increased runoff and pollution.  These LULC changes greatly impact long-term water availability, the quality of freshwater and ecosystem health.  Sustainable land planning has become necessary to mitigate the impacts of LULC change and to protect groundwater.  However, not all land planning projects are effective.  Therefore, evaluating them is crucial to determine whether they are actually effective for mitigation.

In response to the challenges of LULC change in the European Metropolis of Lille (Northern France), 12 LULC scenarios of actions were co-constructed with experts from different backgrounds. Our objective is to evaluate the possible effects on groundwater of actions suggested by the scenarios.

The evaluation of these scenarios will be accomplished, for example, by:

  • Using indicators related to local conditions and available data;
  • Integrating multidimensional welfare indices (Usubiaga-Liaño & Ekins, 2024) and the Doughnut Economics (Raworth, 2012);
  • Quantifying the resulting indicators using GIS data, data from the literature and a capacity matrix (an ecosystem services evaluation tool used by the Hauts-de-France region) (Hérivaux & Farolfi, 2024).

The PICO will outline the various phases of the project and the tasks to be accomplished.  We invite you to visit our PICO and share your thoughts.  Your comments and suggestions on the project will be much appreciated.

Reference:

Ellis, E. C. (2021). Land Use and Ecological Change: A 12,000-Year History. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46(Volume 46, 2021), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-010822

Usubiaga-Liaño, A., & Ekins, P. (2024). Methodological choices for reflecting strong sustainability in composite indices. Ecological Economics, 221, 108192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108192

Raworth, K. (2012). A safe and just space for humanity: Can we live within the doughnut? Oxfam Discussion Papers. Oxfam International. https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-can-we-live-within-the-doughnut-210490/

Hérivaux, C., & Farolfi, S. (2024). Evaluation of Future Land Use Scenarios for Groundwater Protection and Territorial Sustainable Development [Poster]. IDIL Graduate Program, University of Montpellier. https://idil.edu.umontpellier.fr/files/2024/09/IDIL-Herivaux-Farolfi-LU-Scenarios-GW-protection-2024-07-16-1.pdf

How to cite: Promduangsri, P. and Hérivaux, C.: Evaluation of future land use scenarios for groundwater protection and territorial sustainable development, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10199, 2025.

EGU25-11824 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Estimating Curve Number under changing catchment’s land cover structure 

Adam Krajewski and Leszek Hejduk

The Curve Number method, developed in the 1950s in the United States, is commonly used to estimate runoff depth resulting from heavy rainfall. Over many years, it has been tested in various regions and for different purposes beyond its original use. Despite numerous studies on this method, some issues still require consideration, i.e., a universally accepted procedure for CN determination from rainfall-runoff data. In this work, the authors attempt to estimate the CN parameter for a small, lowland catchment in central Poland. Historical data on catchment land cover and original rainfall-runoff measurements are used to determine the CN for three periods of different catchment land cover structures. Approaches for CN estimation are compared and discussed. The study states that a) over the period 1974-2018, a gradual increase in forest areas is observed, while the average CN parameter dropped from 59.6 to 55.9; b) among considered approaches, the least-squares calibration is a straightforward concept, allowing for reliable estimation of CN from rainfall-runoff data; c) further research is still needed to focus on the influence of actual initial losses on Curve Number value.

How to cite: Krajewski, A. and Hejduk, L.: Estimating Curve Number under changing catchment’s land cover structure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11824, 2025.

EGU25-12485 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Refining Surface Runoff Predictions in Missouri, United States Using Enhanced SCS Curve Number Method 

Umanda Abeysinghe, Clinton Pelletier, and Noel Aloysius

Accurately modeling surface runoff is essential for effective water resource management, flood forecasting, and urban planning. This study refines surface runoff predictions in the Missouri Hydrological Area (MHA) using an enhanced Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001 to 2021 were analyzed to calculate weighted curve numbers, accounting for regional variability. Adjustments to the SCS-CN method, including improved formulations for initial abstraction, enhanced the predictive accuracy. The outputs were compared with observed and simulated surface runoff from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), respectively.

To calculate the surface runoff, one of the major inputs is Curve Numbers (CN) which is predominantly based on land cover. The LULC analysis revealed that agricultural lands dominate the region, covering approximately 51% of the total area, followed by forests (30%), and developed or built-up areas (7%). Shrublands, grasslands, wetlands, and barren lands collectively account for the remaining area, with wetlands showing significant fluctuations due to environmental changes and restoration efforts. Weighted CNs were calculated for the study area, with values ranging from 30 to 98, depending on land use, soil type, and hydrological conditions. Agricultural lands and developed areas exhibited higher CN values, reflecting higher runoff potential, while forested and wetland areas had lower CNs, indicating greater infiltration capacity.

In addition to CN, precipitation is another input. Hourly precipitation data (0.125° × 0.125° lat/lon grids) are obtained from the NLDAS for the period January 2001 to December 2021. This dataset captures the region’s substantial variability, with annual precipitation ranging from 950 mm to 1,540 mm, reflecting distinct seasonal patterns and spatial heterogeneity within the study region.

The surface runoff estimated using the updated SCS-CN method was validated against the USGS Quick-Flow runoff estimates. Statistical metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), highlight the improved reliability of the enhanced method, with NSE and KGE values of 0.5608 and 0.4475, respectively, for the updated CN-formulation. In contrast, the original equation with the constant initial abstraction ratio of 0.2 yielded lower NSE and KGE values of 0.4055 and 0.1763. These results emphasize the importance of refining CN estimates, which explains more variance, and aligns more closely with observations. This adaptability to regional hydrological conditions makes the enhanced method a choice for accurate surface runoff predictions.

How to cite: Abeysinghe, U., Pelletier, C., and Aloysius, N.: Refining Surface Runoff Predictions in Missouri, United States Using Enhanced SCS Curve Number Method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12485, 2025.

Human activities continuously impact water balances and cycling in watersheds, making it essential to accurately identify the responses of runoff to dynamic changes in land use types. Although machine learning models demonstrate promise in capturing the intricate interplay between hydrological factors, their “black box” nature makes it challenging to identify the dynamic drivers of runoff. To overcome this challenge, we employed an interpretable machine learning method to inversely deduce the dynamic determinants within hydrological processes. In this study, we analyzed land use changes in the Ningxia section of the middle Yellow River across four periods, laying the foundation for revealing how these changes affect runoff. The sub-watershed attributes and meteorological characteristics generated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used as input variables of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to simulate substantial sub-watershed rainfall runoff in the region. The XGBoost was interpreted using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify the dynamic responses of runoff to the land use changes over different periods. The results revealed increasingly frequent interchanges between the land use types in the study area. The XGBoost effectively captured the characteristics of the hydrological processes in the SWAT-derived sub-watersheds. The SHAP analysis results demonstrated that the promoting effect of agricultural land (AGRL) on runoff gradually weakens, while forests (FRST) continuously strengthen their restraining effect on runoff. Relevant land use policies provide empirical support for these findings. Furthermore, the interaction between meteorological variables and land use impacts the runoff generation mechanism and exhibits a threshold effect, with the thresholds for relative humidity (RH), maximum temperature (MaxT), and minimum temperature (MinT) determined to be 0.8, 25℃, and 15℃, respectively. This reverse deduction method can reveal hydrological patterns and the mechanisms of interaction between variables, helping to effectively addressing constantly changing human activities and meteorological conditions.

How to cite: Wang, S., Vesala, T., and Wang, W.: Interpretable machine learning guided by physical mechanisms revealsdrivers of runoff under dynamic land use changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12771, 2025.

EGU25-14469 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Thermodynamic insights into the complementary relationship and novel estimation 

Guo Li, Wenhui Liu, and Baozhong Zhang

Evaporation serves as a crucial link among the global water cycle, energy cycle, and carbon cycle. The Complementary Relationship (CR), initially proposed by Bouchet in 1963, has been widely accepted as a tool for estimating actual terrestrial evaporation rates. However, its physical foundation has long been subject to scrutiny. This study aims to explore the thermodynamic basis of the CR based on the path of isenthalps and to propose a novel method for estimating actual evaporation rates under different land surface conditions. By examining the changes of air masses in the temperature-vapor pressure state coordinates and employing a first-order approximation, an analytical expression of the complementary relationship in thermodynamics has been derived. The current results indicate that, according to the derived analytical expression, actual evaporation can be determined by the temperature and vapor pressure states at the initial and final positions, with the process of change characterized by the coefficients defined in this study. Notably, the model performs optimally when the land surface is relatively moist.

How to cite: Li, G., Liu, W., and Zhang, B.: Thermodynamic insights into the complementary relationship and novel estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14469, 2025.

EGU25-17786 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Exploring Land Use and Soil Management Impacts on Water Resources in a Small Austrian Catchment. 

Abobakr Hussin, Thomas Brunner, Thomas Weninger, Katharina Fischer, and Peter Strauss

Water scarcity and availability represent two critical and interconnected facets of the challenges posed to agriculture by climate change. Among the components most affected by these changes are land use and landscape dynamics. The construction and intelligent management of the retention basins, reservoirs, drainage systems or water-saving soil management can mitigate water shortages during drought periods by enhancing storage and flow regulation.

This study uses the Wflow_sbm hydrological model, a distributed-parameter framework, to investigate how climatic condition and landscape factors influence water dynamics in a 60-ha experimental catchment in Lower Austria. By integrating comprehensive datasets from 2007 to 2024 and emphasizing key soil and land use characteristics, we aim to simulate the water balance across this historical change in land use, soil management, and crop rotation.

Previous investigations in this catchment lead us to assume that shifts in land use and agricultural practices will substantially impact runoff, infiltration, and evapotranspiration patterns. Furthermore, evolving rainfall regimes and rising temperatures driven by climate change are expected to increase challenges related to water availability. By analyzing these factors, the model scenario investigation seeks to highlight historical land use and structural changes and their effects on the water balance. This includes examining how past agricultural practices, and the landscape, and drainage systems have influenced runoff patterns, and evapotranspiration rates. Additionally, the study seeks to correlate these changes with historical climate data to identify long-term trends and thresholds in water availability.

This model application provides valuable insights into effective water resource management strategies amidst environmental changes. Future work will focus on quantifying the agrohydrological potential of further water-saving practices and extending the analysis to explore the broader ecological and community-level of land use and climate transformations.

Keywords: Wflow_sbm, hydrological modeling, land use change, climate change, water resources, experimental catchment

How to cite: Hussin, A., Brunner, T., Weninger, T., Fischer, K., and Strauss, P.: Exploring Land Use and Soil Management Impacts on Water Resources in a Small Austrian Catchment., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17786, 2025.

EGU25-18191 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

From Field to Catchment: Evaluating the Hydrological Effects of Soil Organic Carbon Increases with the distributed mesoscale hydrologic model mHM 

Malve Heinz, Annelie Holzkämper, Sélène Ledain, Pascal Horton, Rohini Kumar, and Bettina Schaefli

Due to the increasing duration and magnitude of both agricultural and hydrological droughts, farmers face the problem of declining yields and reduced irrigation possibilities. In our recent study (Heinz et al. 2025, under review), we found that increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) could increase soil water retention and thus mitigate yield losses during a recent drought year. However, it is unclear how the accumulation of SOC in agricultural soils could affect hydrological processes on the catchment scale.

Local- to regional-scale changes in land use, such as afforestation, or structural changes, such as terracing or check dams, on catchment scale hydrology have been widely studied (Farley et al. 2005; Deng et al. 2021). The effects of agricultural management adaptations at the field scale are less well understood. However, for example, the effect of switching to conversational tillage as a soil conversation measure is thought to reduce flood peaks and increase rise times (Samanta et al. 2023), highlighting the need for further research.  In this study, we address a major research gap by assessing the influence of increasing SOC on catchment-scale hydrology using the Mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM). The study focuses on the mid-sized Broye catchment in western Switzerland, where mHM was applied with the novel subcatchment conservation module SCC, which significantly improved the simulations (Shrestha et al. 2025, under review).

In the SOC-increase scenario, we assess the impact on key hydrological fluxes (e.g. evapotranspiration, percolation, groundwater recharge) and reservoirs (e.g. soil water storage), as well as the overall water balance and discharge dynamics.

Preliminary results indicate that while SOC enhancement causes measurable changes in soil water storage and fluxes at smaller scales, its overall effect on catchment scale water balance and discharge is limited. These modest effects may be due to physical insensitivity of large-scale hydrological processes but may also be due to model limitations in parameterisation and representation of localised changes. This will be subject to further analysis, as will the assessment of the effect of increased SOC on peak and low flows.

References:

Deng, C., G. Zhang, Y. Liu, X. Nie, Z. Li, J. Liu and D. Zhu (2021). "Advantages and disadvantages of terracing: A comprehensive review." International Soil and Water Conservation Research 9(3): 344-359.

Farley, K. A., E. G. Jobbágy and R. B. Jackson (2005). "Effects of afforestation on water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy." Global Change Biology 11(10): 1565-1576.

Heinz, M., M. E. Turek, B. Schaefli, A. Keiser and A. Holzkämper (2024). "Can adaptations of crop and soil management prevent yield losses during water scarcity? - A modelling study [Preprint]." EGUsphere 2024: 1-33.

Samanta, S., S. Ale, D. K. Bagnall and C. L. S. Morgan (2023). "Assessing the watershed-scale effects of tillage management on surface runoff and sediment loss using a Curve Number-precipitation relationship based approach." Journal of Hydrology 625.

Shrestha, P.K., Samaniego, L., Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., and Thober, S. (2025)(under review). “Enhancing Global Streamflow Modeling to Enable Locally Relevant Simulations”. Water Resources Research.

How to cite: Heinz, M., Holzkämper, A., Ledain, S., Horton, P., Kumar, R., and Schaefli, B.: From Field to Catchment: Evaluating the Hydrological Effects of Soil Organic Carbon Increases with the distributed mesoscale hydrologic model mHM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18191, 2025.

EGU25-18425 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

The extreme flood from mid-July 2021 in a historical context of land-use development 

Stefanie Wolf, Li Han, Ina Holste, Johanna Miller, Inga Kleinewietfeld, Johannes Keßels, Frank Lehmkuhl, and Holger Schüttrumpf

Extreme rainfall in mid-July 2021 led to flash floods in several catchments in Western Germany, such as the Inde catchment in the Meuse basin and the Ahr, Erft, and Wupper catchments in the Rhine basin. Record water levels exceeded historical data from gauging stations and extreme flood predictions. However, all four catchments experienced similar flooding in the past. Land-use and land-cover data (LULC) are key drivers for hydrological models. This study gathers historic LULC information for the 19th century to quantify LULC-changes in the catchments and analyse their effects on flooding.

In the Erft catchment, flood damages are located in the upper catchment, as in Erftstadt-Blessem a 60 m deep gravel open pit mine near the river was flooded, and retained large amounts of discharge [1]. The upper catchment has been dominated by cropland since the early 19th century (58%, vs. 48% today). Flooded areas in mid-July 2021 changed from mostly pastures (44%), to mostly urban fabric (41%).

The Inde catchment is characterized by industrial and mining activities. Urban fabric increased from less than 1% to 16% catchment-wide and to 37% in flooded areas. A lignite open pit mine at the mouth of the Inde River was flooded similarly to Erftstadt-Blessem [2].

Although reservoirs regulate the Wupper catchment, severe flooding also occurred in July 2021. In total, 11 out of 15 reservoirs exceeded their capacity limits. In this densely populated catchment, urban fabric increased from 5% to 29%, and reached 47% in flooded areas.

In the rural Ahr catchment, forest increased from 34% to 56%, and urban areas increased from less than 1% to almost 7%. In flooded areas, land-use changed from cropland to a 10-fold increase in urban fabric [3].

The four catchments differ in their geographical location (low mountain range vs, loess-dominated lowland) and their LULC-changes since the 19th century. All catchments experienced severe flooding and damages during the July 2021 flood. Results indicate that catchment-wide land-use is not a key factor for flood severity. Rather, topographical and geological conditions and other factors, such as river regulation and damming, play a more significant role. However, increased anthropogenic pressure on floodplains led to higher water levels and an increased damage potential. In particular, urbanization and mining have emerged as critical contributors to flood severity. Thus, flood protection should consider land-use on floodplains and provide more space for the river.

[1] Lehmkuhl, F., & Stauch, G. (2023). Anthropogenic influence of open pit mining on river floods, an example of the Blessem flood 2021. Geomorphology, 421, 108522. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108522

[2] Keßels, J., Wolf, S., Römer, W., Dörwald, L., Schulte, P., & Lehmkuhl, F. (2024). Enormous headward and gully erosion in a floodplain area reclaimed for open-cast lignite mining during the July 2021 flood in the Inde River valley (Western Germany). Environmental Sciences Europe, 36(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-024-00997-4

[3] Vélez Pérez, M., Wolf, S., Klopries, E.-M. (2023). Quantifizierung des Einflusses der Landnutzung an der Ahr auf das Abflussverhalten. Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft 7, 435-441

 

How to cite: Wolf, S., Han, L., Holste, I., Miller, J., Kleinewietfeld, I., Keßels, J., Lehmkuhl, F., and Schüttrumpf, H.: The extreme flood from mid-July 2021 in a historical context of land-use development, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18425, 2025.

EGU25-18795 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Changes in surface energy balance and its hydrometeorological variables over Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra river basins 

Mohit Yadav, Akanksha Sharma, Pyarimohan Maharana, Suraj Mal, and Ashok Priyadarshan Dimri

Estimating changes in the Earth's surface's temperature and energy mass balance has grown importance in the recent decades. The South Asian Himalayas are extremely susceptible to changes in precipitation and hydrological/hydrometeorological equilibrium. Understanding these shifts in the hydrological balance is important for managing water resources, identifying water-sensitive places, and other issues throughout the three main Himalayan River basins, the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra (IGB). They differ greatly in terms of topography, geography, landuse/landcover heterogeneity, seasonal variability, geomorphological features, etc. In order to evaluate surface energy balance and various thermodynamic processes, precipitation, turbulent fluxes, evaporation, potential evaporation, etc., are taken into consideration. For trend analysis, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall method is used, and for change point detection, the Pettitt test is used for data from 1950 to 2020. The mean precipitation difference between 1982–2020 and 1950–1981 indicates a reduction during the monsoon and post-monsoon over GRB and BRB, based on the change point year 1981. In BRB, the changing years of potential evaporation and evaporation have a strong correlation with monsoon, whereas in GRB, this correlation is limited. It illustrates how the two basins land use types differ, with BRB having more forest cover than GRB. The Bowen ratio has a lead-lag relationship with many hydrometeorological factors. Present research findings on changing hydrometeorological variables are significant and can help with planning and policy for the good of society, such as improved management of water resources, possible effects of climate change, etc. This study will help policymakers in better comprehend the shifting precipitation patterns, which will aid in developing new agricultural and water resource sustainability strategies.

How to cite: Yadav, M., Sharma, A., Maharana, P., Mal, S., and Dimri, A. P.: Changes in surface energy balance and its hydrometeorological variables over Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra river basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18795, 2025.

EGU25-19814 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4

Impact of Urban Agglomeration on the Longitudinal Hydrochemical Profile of the Mleczna River (Central Poland) 

Wiktoria Suwalska, Oktawia Kaflińska, Mateusz Maziarz, Tamara Poneta, Jagoda Zalewska, Łukasz Jelonkiewicz, and Mirosław Żelazny

Catchments draining urban agglomerations are particularly exposed to significant anthropogenic pressure. Along watercourses, various types of wastewater are discharged, including both area pollution sources (e.g., parking lots, streets) and point sources, such as the discharge of treated wastewater from large municipal sewage treatment plants.

Field studies were conducted in Radom, along the Mleczna River, using the hydrochemical mapping method. Sixteen points and hydrological nodes were identified along the river's longitudinal profile, at locations where wastewater or other watercourses discharge. The studies were carried out twice (November 8-9, 2024), and 66 water samples were collected. During the fieldwork, selected physicochemical parameters (electrical conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen content, and water temperature) were measured in two series, and water samples were taken for further laboratory analysis. In the laboratory, the chemical composition of 14 major ions (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH4, Li, HCO3, SO4, Cl, NO3, NO2, PO4, F, Br) was analyzed using ion chromatography (DIONEX ICS 2000). The Elementar Vario TOC Cube analyzer was also used to determine the content of organic carbon (TOC), inorganic carbon (TIC), total carbon (TC), and total nitrogen (TNb).

Spatial variation analysis of physicochemical properties and ion concentrations indicates that anthropogenic influence is noticeable across all parameters along the longitudinal profile of the Mleczna River. It is worth noting that along the hydrochemical profile, there is primarily an increase in the concentrations of chloride and sodium. These ions are associated with the water and wastewater management of the city of Radom. This is especially evident at hydrological-chemical node number 9, where stormwater from the city’s drainage system is discharged. Anthropogenic pressure is reflected in a change in the hydrochemical type – particularly noticeable in the suburban area, where treated wastewater is discharged from the sewage treatment plant into the Pacynka River, a tributary of the Mleczna River (node 15). The natural hydrochemical type, related to the geological structure, changes from a typical, simple HCO3-Ca type to a four-ion, complex HCO3-Cl-Ca-Na type.

How to cite: Suwalska, W., Kaflińska, O., Maziarz, M., Poneta, T., Zalewska, J., Jelonkiewicz, Ł., and Żelazny, M.: Impact of Urban Agglomeration on the Longitudinal Hydrochemical Profile of the Mleczna River (Central Poland), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19814, 2025.

Urban flooding presents a complex challenge driven by urbanization, changing land use patterns, and climate variability, particularly in monsoon-dominated developing countries like India. According to the WMO, the world is rapidly urbanizing, especially in the flood plains. As a result, the global population is at risk, with the number of people living in flood-prone areas rising by 24% from 58 million to 86 million between 2000 and 2015. This study develops a comprehensive methodology for flood hazard mapping in the Bagjola area( Kolkata, India), integrating Markov Chain and Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) prediction models with hydrodynamic simulations. The Markov-CA model predicted the 2050 land use changes after employing the land use data from 1990, 2005, and 2020. The predicted LULC changes were incorporated into the calibrated and validated MIKE+ hydrodynamic model (2020 data) for flood simulations, and the simulation results depicted the flood hazard maps, highlighting vulnerable areas under different land use scenarios.

The Markov-CA model achieved a Kappa coefficient of 0.84, indicating reasonably good agreement. The results reveal a growing trend of urbanization in the Bagjola Canal region, with 6.1% of vegetation and 29.06% of barren land projected to be urbanized by 2050 compared to 2020. Compared to the situations observed in 2020, under the future scenarios for 2050, the total flood hazard area is expected to increase by 15-40% in the Bagjola Canal region.

This methodology provides a practical framework for assessing the spatial impacts of urbanization on flood risk, offering valuable insights for urban planning and flood management in rapidly developing regions. The resulting floodplain and hazard maps can assist local municipal bodies in preparing flood mitigation and evacuation plans and serve as a criterion for property insurance evaluations.

How to cite: Kumar, A. and Remesan, R.: Integrating LULC Prediction and Hydrodynamic Modelling for Urban Flood Hazard Assessment: A Case Study of Bagjola, Kolkata, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19997, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19997, 2025.

EGU25-20044 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Land use and land cover change and river adjustment 

Askoa Ibisate, Saioa García-Rodríguez, Ana Sáenz de Olazagoitia, Daniel Ballarín, Orbange Ormaetxea, Miguel Sánchez-Fabre, Ibai Ortiz de Arri, Galder Mentxaka, Valeria Pirchi, Juan Miguel García-Lagranja, and Alfredo Ollero

The EbroHydromorph project aims at studying the morphological changes of the middle Ebro River (between Logroño and La Zaida) in recent decades, and sediment transport in particular. In a first phase, a historical study of land use and land cover changes in the Ebro river basin to the end point of the study area is carried out, with an area up to 49,434 km2, with the aim of finding out how these changes have affected the hydrogeomorphological conditions of the main river and its tributaries.

The elaboration of the cartography of the mid-20th century has been a laborious task carried out by digitalising land use and land covers (LULC) and completing it with some of the maps already drawn up previously in a few areas of the studied basin. This basin covers a very wide typology of landscapes, from Atlantic, to Mediterranean, including alpine and semiarid landscapes.

Land use and land cover distribution of the mid-20th century has been reconstructed and compared with that available in the 2014 land use and cover map, analysing in detail the modification of the active channel surfaces of the entire basin, as an indicator of the changes in flow and sediment inputs. The preliminary results show a drastic reduction of active channel surfaces, while forest, artificial and grassland areas have increased.

Additionally these land use and land use cover changes have been related to discharge evolution in those unregulated river reaches, in order to see the impact of LULC changes on flow availability.

How to cite: Ibisate, A., García-Rodríguez, S., Sáenz de Olazagoitia, A., Ballarín, D., Ormaetxea, O., Sánchez-Fabre, M., Ortiz de Arri, I., Mentxaka, G., Pirchi, V., García-Lagranja, J. M., and Ollero, A.: Land use and land cover change and river adjustment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20044, 2025.

Urbanization is the most rapid and intense global phenomenon across the majority of the developing and developed nations occurring recently. The migrating populations from the rural areas to urban areas leads to considerable change in the distribution of the existing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classes owing to an increased requirement in the number of houses, rapid industrialization, and lowering in agriculture and forest land. The intense expansion of the cities and urban areas brings substantial changes in the landscapes, which significantly impact the environment, society, and natural resources. This study investigates the historical changes in LULC at selected river basins across Ireland. Subsequently, a system dynamics model has been developed by considering three significant subsystems: land use, population, socio-economy. The developed model is used to obtain future projected LULC maps in those selected river basins in Ireland. The future projected LULC is subsequently integrated with the future projected climate change variables into a hydrological model to simulate water quantity and water quality parameters in those Irish river basins. Finally, a comparative analysis is performed on the water-related parameters to investigate the changes in flooding scenarios and water quality indicators in the future due to LULC and climate changes in comparison to the historical and current period.

How to cite: Basu, B.: Quantification of the impact of land-use/land-cover changes in the Irish river basins to the water quantity and quality parameters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20194, 2025.

EGU25-21027 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.4 | Highlight

Global and regional hydrologic cycle impacts of forestation 

Christine Leclerc, Kirsten Zickfeld, and W. Jesse Hahm

As nations plan to plant billions to trillions of trees to mitigate against climate change, it is essential to understand how large-scale re- or afforestation  will impact the Earth system. Trees remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and can store the sequestered carbon for centuries if not disturbed. This has climate benefits, as CO2 removal contributes to reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration and is a key measure for limiting global average temperature increase to 1.5 ⁰C or 2 ⁰C relative to pre-industrial conditions. However, despite this favorable biochemical effect of net tree cover increase, there are global and regional biophysical effects which remain understudied. One example of this is the impact of afforestation, reforestation, and avoided deforestation (referred to as forestation henceforth) on the atmospheric and terrestrial portions of the hydrologic cycle at the global and regional scales. This study uses a process-based modelling framework and relevant simulations from the World Climate Research Programme's Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to quantify the global and regional impacts of realistic forestation on the global hydrologic cycle for a high-emissions shared socio-economic pathway to 2100 (SSP3-7.0). To accomplish this, the CMIP6 Land Use Model Intercomparison Project's afforestation experiment is leveraged. Changes in key hydrologic cycle variables and metrics such as precipitation recycling and soil moisture deficit are investigated. While the global impact of large-scale forestation on the hydrologic cycle is difficult to detect, regional impacts—often but not exclusively within the regions where forestation occurs—are apparent. Impacts on atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic cycle variables can be seen with potential implications for water availability in some regions. Findings highlight the potential unintended consequences of including forestation in climate mitigation strategies. 

How to cite: Leclerc, C., Zickfeld, K., and Hahm, W. J.: Global and regional hydrologic cycle impacts of forestation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21027, 2025.

EGU25-21397 | PICO | HS2.4.4

Impact of Land Use on the Drought Propagation in the Huaihe River basin in China. 

Xin Li, Guohua Fang, Joël Arnault, Jianhui Wei, and Harald Kunstmann

In recent years, the global and regional water cycle continues to intensify under the influence of climate change and human activities, which leads to the redistribution of water resources in time and space, resulting in the increasing frequency of drought, which seriously threatens food security, social stability and even human life and property security. Taking the Huaihe River basin as the study region, this study carried out simulations of the fully-coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model coupled with ET water vapor tracking algorithm under four land use scenarios, i.e., actual, forest, grassland, and cropland scenario respectively. Further the impact of land use on land-atmosphere interactions and the uncertainty of drought propagation between meteorological, agricultural, surface hydrological, and subsurface hydrological drought were explored. The results show that the forest scenario strengthens the east wind with an 0.11% to 0.62% increasement on precipitation recycling ratio in the basin, especially for periods of drought when the precipitation is scarce, while the increase of precipitation recycling ratio under cropland scenario is only 0.03 to 0.14%. The grassland scenario demonstrates a reduction in precipitation recycling ratio within the basin by 0.03% to 0.17%. The characteristics of drought propagation under changing environment will be affected by the characteristics of the year and the climatic conditions in the early period. For the year of 2010-2011, the propagation rate of drought duration from meteorological drought to agricultural drought decreases by 18%, propagation rate of drought severity decreases by 14%, while propagation rate of drought intensity increases by 4% under forest scenario. The drought propagation rate under grassland scenario and cropland scenario exhibit significantly increases. As for drought propagation from meteorological drought to surface and subsurface hydrological drought, the propagation is less affected by the land use with a slightly increase on the propagation rate of drought duration.

How to cite: Li, X., Fang, G., Arnault, J., Wei, J., and Kunstmann, H.: Impact of Land Use on the Drought Propagation in the Huaihe River basin in China., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21397, 2025.

EGU25-3475 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.5 | Highlight

Forest Dieback Poses a Hidden Threat to Drinking Water Quality 

Carolin Winter, Teja Kattenborn, Kerstin Stahl, Kathrin Szillat, Markus Weiler, and Florian Schnabel

For centuries, forests located in drinking water protection areas have been regarded as a natural safeguard for maintaining high drinking water quality. However, the growing occurrence and severity of droughts increasingly threaten the forests’ protective function. An important event is the severe drought from 2018 to 2020 in Germany, which induced an unprecedented pulse of forest dieback. Using this event as a showcase, we provide evidence that forest dieback might jeopardize the forests’ essential role in protecting drinking water quality. Initially, we have compiled the first comprehensive overview of forest cover, forest type, dominant tree species, and canopy cover loss in all drinking water protection areas in Germany. Our results show that forests cover a substantial area of around 43% of all drinking water protection areas. During the multi-year drought of 2018-2020, an excessive fraction of approximately 5% of the canopy cover was lost. We further analyzed a sample of groundwater nitrate concentration records in drinking water protection areas with and without severe forest dieback. We show that 7 out of 13 sites with severe forest dieback showed a significant increase in groundwater nitrate concentrations. On average, nitrate concentrations in the forest dieback sites have more than doubled. In contrast, we did not observe significant changes in sites without forest dieback. Nevertheless, the variable responses in sites affected by forest dieback underscore the necessity for further research to understand the underlying mechanisms controlling resistance to nitrate leaching. Our assessment serves as an initial effort to underscore the hidden threat forest dieback might pose to our drinking water resources. This assessment highlights the need for intensified and collaborative research into how forest dieback affects water quality.

How to cite: Winter, C., Kattenborn, T., Stahl, K., Szillat, K., Weiler, M., and Schnabel, F.: Forest Dieback Poses a Hidden Threat to Drinking Water Quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3475, 2025.

EGU25-3775 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.5

Improving Forest Realism in Earth System Models through Satellite Observations 

Noemi Vergopolan, Sergey Malyshev, Nathaniel Chaney, and Elena Shevliakova

Forests play a critical role in land-atmosphere dynamics, significantly influencing soil-water-climate interactions. A realistic and accurate representation of forest carbon pools in land surface models is essential to understand, monitor, and predict droughts, wildfires, and weather and climate dynamics. Satellites offer detailed and global observations of forest characteristics, such as 10-250m resolution biweekly leaf area index (LAI) from Sentinel and MODIS and 30m resolution canopy height from GEDI-Landsat data products. By integrating these satellite observations with vegetation allometric relationships, we can reconstruct forest carbon biomass pools across roots, trunks, and leaves since the 2000s. These approaches have been pivotal in mapping and reconstructing global above-ground carbon stock at fine spatial scales (10-250m resolution). However, integrating these detailed satellite observations into predictive Earth System Models (ESMs) remains challenging due to the complexity of dynamic vegetation models and the spatiotemporal mismatch between satellite data and the grid size of ESMs.

To bridge this gap and enable a detailed and realistic representation of forest dynamics in ESMs, we introduce an approach to integrate MODIS LAI and GEDI-Landsat canopy height data through the assimilation of carbon biomass pools (roots, trunk, and leaves) into the vegetation dynamics component of the NOAA-GFDL Land Model version 4 (LM4). Leveraging the HydroBlocks sub-grid tiling scheme and LM4 allometric relationships for LAI and canopy height, we assimilate monthly biomass pools at an effective 250m resolution across the continental United States. We assess how improving forest representation through the assimilation of biomass pools impacts transpiration, canopy and soil evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. By improving the spatiotemporal accuracy of forests-soil-water dynamics at local scales, we can now better map and quantify the role of forests driving ecohydrological hotspots. Such advancements can contribute to improved capabilities to model and predict droughts, wildfires, and deforestation impacts at the spatial scales closer to the scales where conservation and mitigation strategies are implemented (~100s meters).

How to cite: Vergopolan, N., Malyshev, S., Chaney, N., and Shevliakova, E.: Improving Forest Realism in Earth System Models through Satellite Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3775, 2025.

EGU25-4328 | Orals | HS2.4.5

Reconstructing forest green water fluxes in a Mediterranean region over the past 20 years: Evidence for the drought paradox 

Flavia Tauro, Ashenafi Marye Tadesse, Tommaso De Gregorio, and Eloy Suarez Huerta

Green-water fluxes are a major component of the hydrological cycle globally. According to recent models and experimental observations, during droughts, wetter regions respond by increasing evapotranspiration (ET), while drier regions exhibit decreasing trends due to vegetation water stress. To comprehensively dissect the ET signature of natural forests in a Mediterranean region, typically regarded as a dry environment, in this work, we reconstruct the green-water fluxes of 15 natural unmanaged forests in Central Italy from 2000 to 2022 and explore their dependencies on local temperature and precipitation. Historical ET data are estimated through a time-domain parameterization of the traditional “triangle method”, which leverages satellite imagery to compute actual latent heat flux as a residual term of the land surface energy balance. Based on our results, all forests show a statistically significant increase in Summer ET, and, in warm years, such an increase has occurred in spite of negative precipitation anomaly. These satellite-based observations support the instance of a “drought paradox”, which is not related to temperature nor precipitation anomalies, and probably builds on multi-year temperature and precipitation trends.

How to cite: Tauro, F., Tadesse, A. M., De Gregorio, T., and Huerta, E. S.: Reconstructing forest green water fluxes in a Mediterranean region over the past 20 years: Evidence for the drought paradox, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4328, 2025.

We examined stream water temperature variations in response to air temperature and precipitation in 22 steep forested catchments. We conducted an elasticity approach, based on hysteresis loop analysis, stream water temperature, air temperature, and precipitation. Here, hysteresis loops were classified by rising and falling limbs on air temperature. Temporal variations of stream water temperature depended on air temperature rising and falling periods. Based on stream water temperature and both temperature and precipitation elasticities, temperature elasticity increased with increases in stream water temperature during the rising period. However, precipitation elasticity increased with decreases in stream water temperature. The stream water temperature of the steep forested catchments was sensitive to air temperature from an elasticity perspective. Therefore, from an elasticity standpoint, our findings showed that temperature elasticity increased with increasing stream water temperature, whereas precipitation elasticity increased as stream water temperature decreased. Additionally, the variations in stream water temperature were attributed to elasticity responses due to the effect of forested ecosystems and hydrological conditions, even if our study design allowed for the creation of inferences regarding the resilience of forested headwater streams. Further long-term sustainable stream water management plans should be made carefully to include site monitoring for the sensitivity of stream water temperature to environmental factors depending largely on spatial characteristics that had temporal variations.

How to cite: Nam, S., Lim, H., Li, Q., and Choi, B.: Stream water temperature responses to air temperature and precipitation changes using an elasticity approach in steep forested catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5385, 2025.

EGU25-7057 | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Modelling the impact of drought-induced water stress on tree vitality and evapotranspiration  

Paul Wagner, Anne-Kathrin Wendell, Eva Verena Müller, and Nicola Fohrer

Droughts affect the vitality of trees and their central role in regulating ecosystems and the climate. Moreover, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of dry periods endangering the stability and functionality of forests. It is therefore essential to adequately represent drought impacts on forests in catchment scale eco-hydrologic models.

In this study, we aim at assessing the effects of water stress on tree vitality and evapotranspiration with the eco-hydrologic model SWAT+. To this end, the catchment of the Ellerbach (182 km² area) at gauge Schleifmühle and its tributary the Gräfenbach at gauge Argenschwang (32 km²) in the low mountain ranges of the Soonwald in southwest Germany were modelled. A spatially distributed parameterisation was applied to represent the spatial heterogeneity of the catchment. Model calibration was based on Latin Hypercube Sampling to derive 1000 parameter sets for eleven model parameters. From these model runs the best model run in terms of the smallest absolute percentage bias at both gauges was chosen. The model showed a good performance at the daily time scale at the catchment outlet and a lower but still acceptable performance in the upstream indicated by Kling-Gupta efficiencies of 0.81 (Ellerbach) and 0.66 (Gräfenbach) in the calibration period (2011 to 2016) and 0.83 (Ellerbach) and 0.64 (Gräfenbach) in the validation period (2017 to 2021).

Plant water stress was identified on a daily basis when the actual plant transpiration deviated from the potential plant transpiration. The highest water stress was found for forests in the low mountain range areas in the years 2011 and 2022, with durations ranging from 62 to 119 days in 2011 and from 43 to 130 days in 2022 for different tree species. These values are up to 2.1 times (2011) and 1.5 times (2022) higher than the long-term average. Generally, coniferous trees are more affected by water stress (long-term average: 91 days) than deciduous trees (long-term average: 31 days). However, in the two analyzed years deciduous trees experienced 2.1 (+34 days, 2011) and 1.5 (+15 days, 2022) times more water stress as compared to their long-term average, whereas coniferous trees experienced 1.3 (+25 days, 2011) and 1.4 (+34 days, 2022) times more water stress. 

Water stress affected tree vitality in the respective years indicated by the development of the leaf area index. Moreover, drought conditions led to a reduction in evapotranspiration by 14% (2011) and 12% (2022) when compared to mean annual evapotranspiration. Spatio-temporal differences in evapotranspiration patterns can be explained by an interplay between tree species, soil properties and precipitation patterns. As tree species perform different strategies for coping with water stress, future research shall focus on evaluating drought-induced transpiration decreases for the main tree species based on independent species-specific transpiration data.

How to cite: Wagner, P., Wendell, A.-K., Müller, E. V., and Fohrer, N.: Modelling the impact of drought-induced water stress on tree vitality and evapotranspiration , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7057, 2025.

Increasing demand for water resources makes quantification of agricultural and industrial demand essential for sustainable water management. This study was undertaken in the Lower Limestone Coast of South Australia where plantation forests are known to access groundwater. As the resource is shared between plantation growers, other agricultural users and natural ecosystems, extraction from groundwater resource is licensed by local authorities and water has an associated cost. This study forms part of a broader investigation to accurately quantify plantation water use.

This study investigated the feasibility of instrumenting field sites with fewer sap flow sensors to increase total site monitoring capacity. Research has not yet established the optimal number and arrangement of sap flow sensors required for accurate estimation of sap velocity to estimate evapotranspiration of a forest stand. Field sites of approximately 20 m x 20 m have been used with at least six sap flow sensors in the region to estimate plantation water use characteristics. This study sought to establish whether field sites utilizing three sap flow sensors was feasible to estimate sap flow velocity of a Eucalyptus globulus plantation forest over a 10-month period. It also sought to determine whether a wholly random selection of trees was appropriate, or whether the average water use was influenced by tree size.

A monitoring plot of 20 m x 20 m was established. A census of tree diameters at breast height (DBH, measured at 1.3 m above ground level, over bark) was conducted as an indicator of tree size, and the plot was subsequently categorized into three DBH size classes, namely, low (L); Medium (M); and High (H). Within each size class, two sample trees were selected at random and a total of six sap flow sensors  were instrumented. A total of 20 tree combinations, involving the sub-selection of 3 sensors out of a possible 6, were analyzed for a selected month during the autumn, winter, and spring seasons. 

The average sap velocity was characterised across three seasons with all sap flow combinations. Sap velocity was greatest during spring and lowest during winter, as expected. The average sap velocity increased progressively from LLM (combinations with the smallest DBH trees) to (those with the largest). Larger tree combinations (MMH, HHL, HMM) generally exhibited higher average monthly sap velocities. When examined to determine total water use, this results in an over-estimation of stand evapotranspiration. In contrast, smaller tree combinations (LLM, LLH, LMM) tended to produce lower sap velocities, potentially leading to underestimation.

Selecting an ‘average’ combination (LMH) was the most representative approach to measure the average monthly sap velocity using three sensors. This combination produced the same average monthly sap velocity as that based on using six sensors. This suggested that the use of three sap flow sensors can reliably estimate sap velocity on a spatial and temporal basis within a study plot, and also emphasised the need to consider variables like DBH when selecting trees in any monitoring study. Further research will be undertaken to verify the findings at other locations. 

How to cite: Karunatilaka, P., Myers, B., Umali, B., Hewa, G., and O'Hehir, J.: Optimizing the approach required to accurately predict seasonal water use variation in a Eucalyptus Globulus plantation: A Case Study from the Lower Limestone Coast of South Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7541, 2025.

Montane watersheds of California’s Sierra Nevada are critical to sustaining local water security and economic wellbeing. However, decades of fire suppression have led to overgrown forests that are highly vulnerable to drought and wildfire risks. Moreover, climate change is further compounding the negative impacts of increased forest density. Land managers are implementing active forest management to restore source watersheds and build climate resilience. In this study, we investigated the individual and compounding impact of forest thinning and warming on watershed hydrologic response using a process-based model (i.e., SWAT+) in a large (3,998 km2) Sierra Nevada watershed. The model was parameterized using a multi-objective calibration of streamflow, snow water equivalent, and evapotranspiration. We conducted multiple numerical experiments with forest treatments (25% and 40% reduction in leaf area index implemented in a wet and a dry year) and warming (ambient temperature, +1.5 oC, and +3.0 oC) to evaluate the variability of the hydrological response across a water-energy gradient and the extent to which forest treatments can offset the response to warming. Results indicate that warming increased evapotranspiration in energy-limited forests, while a reduction in evapotranspiration was observed in water-limited forests due to an increase in water stress. The water made available through forest thinning was directed towards increasing streamflow or sustaining the remaining trees, depending on water and energy availability and forest regrowth. We found that large-scale forest restoration in the upper Kings River Basin has the potential to partially mitigate warming impacts on streamflow by a maximum of 48% and 36% for +1.5 C and +3.0 C temperature increase, respectively, thus reducing the severity of warming impacts on streamflow and forest water stress.

How to cite: Safeeq, M. and Casirati, S.: Forest Management in a Warming World: Enhencing Insights into Compounding Hydrologic Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7981, 2025.

EGU25-9598 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Asymmetric Responses of AGB and fPAR in Northern Forest to Climate Condition 

Shen Tan, Qi Liu, Huaguo Huang, and Ge Gao

Northern forests exhibit strong sensitivity to recent climate change, which brings risks of carbon reemission from mature forests and threatening biodiversity. Understanding the role of these forests in regional carbon and hydrological cycle is fundamental for implementing effective forest management strategies and projecting future terrestrial dynamics. Currently, most studies investigating vegetation growth or responses to climate change rely on the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) as an indicator of plant productivity. However, while fPAR primarily reflects carbon assimilation within the current growing season, it provides limited insights into long-term carbon storage, such as above-ground biomass (AGB). This discrepancy arises from the complex vertical structure of forests, leading to an incomplete understanding of how forest AGB responds to local climate conditions. In this study we utilize a wall-to-wall AGB dataset derived from microwave remote sensing observations to investigate the asymmetric responses of AGB and fPAR to climatic factors and explore the underlying mechanisms driving these differences. The key contributions of this study are twofold: (1) demonstrating that AGB and fPAR exhibit distinct and asymmetric responses to local climate conditions, and (2) elucidating the factors contributing to the mismatch between AGB and fPAR. Using annual mean precipitation, temperature, and radiation data from 2015 to 2020, we analyzed the climatic responses of AGB and fPAR. Results reveal an asymmetric relationship with precipitation: AGB is negatively correlated with local precipitation, while fPAR exhibits a positive correlation. Temperature and radiation, however, show no significant constraints on either AGB or fPAR. To further investigate this asymmetry, we introduced the difference between normalized AGB and fPAR (AGB-fPAR) as an indicator and divided the study area into 12 sub-regions of 1° × 1° where precipitation and downwelling radiation energy were treated as invariant. Our findings demonstrate that topographic factors account for approximately 60% of the variation in AGB-fPAR, driven by the redistribution of energy caused by local terrain. Additionally, surface runoff reallocates water availability beyond local precipitation, with proximity to open surface water showing a significant positive relationship with higher AGB-fPAR. Forest structural complexity, such as mixed species composition and older tree age, further amplifies the AGB-fPAR gap due to their influence on vertical structure. This study highlights the importance of considering the divergence between fPAR and AGB in assessing forest responses to climate change. Local topographic effects, hydrological dynamics, and forest structural traits jointly drive the disparity between these indicators, which evidences the need for integrated approaches to understand and predict forest-climate interactions.

How to cite: Tan, S., Liu, Q., Huang, H., and Gao, G.: Asymmetric Responses of AGB and fPAR in Northern Forest to Climate Condition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9598, 2025.

EGU25-10389 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.5

Transpiration Source Water and Embolism Resistance Across a Topographic Gradient in the Eastern Amazon Rainforest 

Magali Nehemy, Caio R. C. Mattos, Rafael S. Oliveira, Marina Hirota, Ying Fan, Monique Bohora Schlickmann, Deliane Penha, Leandro Giacomin, Julliene S. G. M. Silva, Mayda Rocha, Gleicy Rodrigues, and Jeffrey McDonnell

Transpiration contributes up to 70% of regional rainfall during the dry season in the Amazon through precipitation recycling. But the source, spatial distribution of transpiration and the key plant hydraulic drivers of transpiration source water remains unclear. Here, we quantify transpiration sources across a topographic gradient in the eastern Amazon, at the Tapajós National Forest. We leverage embolism resistance data collected on the same sites during this same campaign. We asked: i) What is the source of transpiration? And ii) how do transpiration depth and origin vary across topographic gradients and species with different embolism resistance growing under the same climate? Our data show that on hills, dry-season transpiration sources are mostly shallow soil water mainly recharged by current dry-season rainfall. In contrast, transpiration source water in the valley includes both shallow and deep soil layers, with both dry and wet season contributions. The observed pattern in transpiration source water is largely explained by species embolism resistance, but with contrasting trade-offs between hill- and valley-species. The significant relationship between embolism resistance and depth of water uptake in both topographic positions influencing transpiration age could be used to parameterize vegetation water use in land surface models.

How to cite: Nehemy, M., R. C. Mattos, C., S. Oliveira, R., Hirota, M., Fan, Y., Bohora Schlickmann, M., Penha, D., Giacomin, L., S. G. M. Silva, J., Rocha, M., Rodrigues, G., and McDonnell, J.: Transpiration Source Water and Embolism Resistance Across a Topographic Gradient in the Eastern Amazon Rainforest, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10389, 2025.

EGU25-10636 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

An innovative monitoring approach to measure spatio-temporal throughfall patterns in forests 

Lea Dedden and Markus Weiler

Precipitation is partitioned and redistributed by vegetation when it passes through a forest canopy resulting in interception, stemflow and throughfall. Throughfall is known to be spatially highly heterogeneous beeing lower than precipitation in certain areas and higher in others. As these emerging spatial throughfall patterns infiltrate, they may propagate into soil moisture patterns and influence root water uptake, percolation, runoff generation and ultimately the entire forest water balance. Despite the relevancy of throughfall in water resources research, there is a scarcity on experimentally-derived high-quality datasets on its spatio-temporal dynamics. Sampling procedures changed little over the past decades and are often not optimal for systems under study. Large sampling efforts especially for complex vegetation structures limit most studies to investigate on either high temporal or spatial resolution of throughfall.

We present an innovative throughfall sampling approach for continuous measurement of throughfall at high spatial resolution. The sampling scheme allows to quantify the spatio-temporal throughfall variability at both intra-event and intra-stand levels and assess spatial throughfall patterns and their temporal persistence across precipitation events of varying size during leafed and non-leafed periods. 60 self-built throughfall sampler boxes featuring a cost-efficient design with four troughfall collectors and tipping bucket units each, were distributed in a stratified sampling design in forest plots of pure and mixed Beech, Douglas and Silver fir (total area 0,4 ha). The tipping buckets are controlled with newly developed micro boards connected to data loggers so that the network measures continuously, automatically and requires minimal maintenance during precipitation events. The sampler boxes operate with an inlay of litter material on top of a grid and mesh, which allows to include forest floor interception as part of the overall throughfall process and reduces throughfall splash. The placement of the boxes at the forest floor boxes is minimally invasive as quantified throughfall can percolate into the soil below allowing to monitor soil moisture patterns in the same plot. The network of sampler boxes is supplemented with classical throughfall samplers, stemflow- and lysimeter measurements at every plot. Throughfall data were analysed from the network at a Beech, Douglas fir, Silver fir and mixed plot for the first three months of measurement. Using spatial correlation and temporal stability analysis of the observed data, we show spatio-temporal throughfall dynamics of different tree species, during and among precipitation events of varying size and for a stand that develops from dormancy to vegetation period.

How to cite: Dedden, L. and Weiler, M.: An innovative monitoring approach to measure spatio-temporal throughfall patterns in forests, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10636, 2025.

EGU25-12627 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Hydrometeorological Aspects of Sustainable Forest Regeneration Management in Climate Change 

Daniel Svanidze, Ralf Ludwig, Wolfgang Obermeier, and Lukas Lehnert

Climatic change, including an increasing frequency of large-scale disturbances, is progressively threatening the resilience and productivity of forests. Against this backdrop, the LabForest project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), investigates the effectiveness and efficiency of silvicultural measures following such calamities. LabForest includes a living lab in a forest of the Ludwig-Maximilians-University (450 ha), facilitating the comparison of forestry and timber management effects (e.g., advance regeneration, clearance, and planting versus natural regeneration) on disturbed areas. The silvicultural measures are examined and evaluated for their impacts on important ecosystem services (e.g., hydrology, carbon sequestration, and timber production) and biodiversity. Ultimately, the project aims to establish a multidimensional assessment matrix to support decision-making in forestry, balancing climate change mitigation, economic interests, biodiversity, and hydrology.

The Hydrometeorology work package develops high-resolution hydrometeorological models of varying complexity to accurately represent and compare water and matter fluxes relative to the differently managed forest plots. For this purpose, a newly setup measurement network captures components of the water balance (evaporation, soil moisture, soil temperature, fraction of photosynthetically active radiation), water quality, and micrometeorological variables. The measured quantities serve as the basis for the parameterization and validation of the models.

The modeling results and analysis of the hydrological conditions of the different forest management strategies will be incorporated into the assessment matrix for silvicultural practices. This will enable regional recommendations and an improved understanding for establishing economically and ecologically resilient forests to cope with anticipated climatic changes.

How to cite: Svanidze, D., Ludwig, R., Obermeier, W., and Lehnert, L.: Hydrometeorological Aspects of Sustainable Forest Regeneration Management in Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12627, 2025.

EGU25-13182 | Orals | HS2.4.5

Long-Term Impacts of Woody Crop Conversion on Hydrology and Biogeochemistry in Forest Watersheds 

Julian Klaus, Jan Goetzie, Scott Raulerson, Natalie Griffiths, and Rhett Jackson

High-yield silvicultural practices (e.g short-rotation woody crops (SRWCs)) increase the pressure on the hydrological and biogeochemical cycles of forest watersheds. These forest systems experience more intensive mechanical and chemical practices compared to traditional forestry. Despite a plethora of studies on the effects of forest management on catchment function, some of the long-term effects of SRWC cultivation on water quality and quantity remain poorly understood.

Following harvest of existing mature loblolly pine stands, we implemented intensive silvicultural management, using high fertilization rates, high tree planting density, and competition control with herbicides on pine plantations covering approximately 50% of two first-order watersheds (B and C) in the southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain. Over a nine year period, we monitored streamflow, stream chemistry, and groundwater chemistry in these watersheds and an adjacent reference watershed (R) prior to and after harvest and planting. The objective of this watershed manipulation experiment was to evaluate the changes on catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry and relate that to the efficiency of the applied traditional forestry best management practices (BMPs).

Our results suggest a significant initial shift in hydrological processes and the catchment water balance, with increased streamflow following clear-cutting. Over time, we observed a return to baseline conditions. The water quality response was variable between chemical compounds and different across watershed compartments. For example, nitrate levels in groundwater increased post-fertilization with no drop in the 6-year post-harvest observation period. Contrary, we detected no significant water quality changes in the riparian groundwater nor stream water, likely due to effective denitrification and nutrient uptake in the riparian zones of these groundwater-dominated watersheds.

The experiment suggest that watershed-scale conversion to SRWC loblolly pine systems may cause short-term alterations in catchment processes of Coastal Plain watersheds. Our findings highlight the critical role of riparian zones in mitigating impacts on stream water quality. However, elevated nitrate concentrations after the last application of fertilizer stresses the critical need for observations to fully characterize long-term water quality impacts of SRWCs across entire watersheds.

How to cite: Klaus, J., Goetzie, J., Raulerson, S., Griffiths, N., and Jackson, R.: Long-Term Impacts of Woody Crop Conversion on Hydrology and Biogeochemistry in Forest Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13182, 2025.

EGU25-13549 | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Monitoring study on plant diversity and water resource recovery characteristics due to restoration of desolate mountain areas 

Byungki Choi, Qiwen Li, Honggeun Lim, and Sooyoun Nam

This study summarized the results of long-term monitoring of various functions obtained from forest restoration, including increased plant diversity and water resource recovery. The study area is a long-term monitoring area for degraded forests, and the characteristics of valley runoff and vascular flora have been continuously observed since 1970, and the annual changes in valley runoff and plant species diversity were compared. As a result of the study, the average runoff was confirmed to be approximately 90 days in the 1980s, approximately 310 days in the 1990s, and 365 days in the 2000s. Compared to the number of days of runoff in the initial degraded area, it increased 3.7 times in 1990 and 4.4 times after 2000. In particular, it was confirmed that the valley flow was maintained throughout the year regardless of rainfall characteristics after 2000. In the case of vascular plants, there were 30 species including Miscanthus sinensis, Lespedeza bicolor, and Arundinella hirta in the 1980s, 62 species including Quercus serrata, Callicarpa japonica, and Rhus chinensis in the 1990s, and 80 species including Quercus mongolica, Viburnum dilatatum, and Fraxinus sieboldiana in the 2000s. In a recent survey, there were 116 taxa including Maackia amurensis, Alnus japonica, and Sorbus alnifolia, and the number has continuously increased. In terms of vegetation structure, in the 1980s, simple communities of shrubs and herbs with a height of about 5 m were the main focus, but in the 1990s, they developed into 10 m tall sub-tree vegetation, and after the 2000s, broad-leaved forests and coniferous-broadleaf mixed forests with a height of about 15 m were formed. It is expected that this study can be used as basic data for estimating ecosystem services and evaluating public interest functions according to the restoration of desolate and damaged forests.

How to cite: Choi, B., Li, Q., Lim, H., and Nam, S.: Monitoring study on plant diversity and water resource recovery characteristics due to restoration of desolate mountain areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13549, 2025.

EGU25-14020 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.5

Investigating streamflow response to forest changes in the Western United States using a modelling approach 

Motasem Abualqumboz, David Tarboton, and Sara Goeking

Mountain forest catchments supply most of the water in the Western United States (US). These catchments are experiencing forest changes that can result in alteration of vegetation cover and soil characteristics, causing changes in streamflow. This paper describes research to understand streamflow response to forest changes in the Western US using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. The study was conducted using data from 100+ CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large Sample Studies) watersheds from 1990 to 2019. The HBV model was applied to analyze streamflow changes during two distinct periods: the control period (October 1990 to September 2009) and the assessment period (October 2009 to September 2019). This analysis thus focuses on large scale decadal changes. Changes in streamflow were analyzed using (1) Reconstruction of assessment period streamflow based on control period calibration, (2) Comparison of behavioral model parameter sets between control and assessment periods and (3) Comparison of simulations using control period and assessment period parameter sets. Differences in model simulations were related to forest change data, as reported by the US National Forest Inventory dataset, for 2010-2019. Results indicated that several watersheds experienced an increase in streamflow during the assessment period compared to the control period. Conversely, some watersheds showed a decrease in streamflow during the same period. Associations between changes in streamflow with determinative factors such as aridity, disturbance severity, and process indicators inferred from model parameters, were investigated.

How to cite: Abualqumboz, M., Tarboton, D., and Goeking, S.: Investigating streamflow response to forest changes in the Western United States using a modelling approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14020, 2025.

EGU25-14995 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Modelling Climate Change Effects on Soil Water Dynamics and Groundwater Recharge in Temperate Forests in Germany 

Angela G. Morales, Michael Köhler, Johannes Sutmöller, Bernd Ahrends, and Henning Meesenburg

Studies on climate change effects reveal that the natural water cycle will continue to shift, often intensifying pressure on water resources. Understanding the interaction between forest ecosystems, soil water dynamics, and groundwater recharge under these changes is essential. This study investigates the forested areas of the Hessian Ried in Hesse, Germany—a low-lying, fertile region crucial for agriculture, forestry, nature conservation, and groundwater supply to the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main metropolitan region. Ensuring sustainable water management for this vital resource zone is necessary to meet future demands.

The LWFBrook90 model, a 1D Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) tool, was utilized to examine future soil water variability and its impact on groundwater resources in the study area. The model simulates the soil water balance using Richards’ equations and, with its latest version (LWFBrook90R 0.6.0), incorporates capillary rise. Historical daily climate data (1960 to present) and climate projections based on the RCP8.5 scenario (extending to 2100) were used. The forested area was discretized into 500 m x 500 m cells, each with representative vegetation, soil, and climate data. Vegetation data was obtained from forest inventories and used in combination with forest yield tables to derive leaf and stem area index using allometric functions. Calibrated model parameters for the main tree species—oak, beech, and pine—were obtained from Weis et al. (2013). A detailed discretization of soil profiles was performed and the corresponding soil physical properties were assigned layer-wise using pedotransfer functions (Wessolek et al., 2009).

The cell-based framework effectively captured spatial variability in tree species and soil properties, ensuring computational efficiency despite excluding lateral flow. Future projections (especially in 2081–2100) indicate a significant decline in soil water availability during summer months (July–September), increasing water stress and potentially impairing plant growth. In winter, soil moisture recovery may still occur but is less pronounced. Monthly transpiration ratios, averaged across periods 2021–2050, 2051–2080, and 2081–2100, revealed severe stress across all projections. Even scenarios with wetter conditions suggest that increased rainfall and infiltration may not sufficiently mitigate tree stress in vulnerable areas.

The model successfully simulated vertical water movement in the profile and groundwater recharge dynamics. Groundwater recharge during winter is projected to maintain current rates under moderate scenarios or slightly increase under wetter ones. However, under the driest scenario, the average rate was less than 50 mm per year for the period 2081–2100. These findings highlight significant stress on forest ecosystems under changing climate conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptive water management strategies. Ongoing research seeks to refine this prototype by examining vertical fluxes at sites with shallow groundwater depths and further investigate recharge rates under various forest conversion scenarios. These advancements will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystem responses and guide water management efforts in the Hessian Ried and similar regions.

How to cite: Morales, A. G., Köhler, M., Sutmöller, J., Ahrends, B., and Meesenburg, H.: Modelling Climate Change Effects on Soil Water Dynamics and Groundwater Recharge in Temperate Forests in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14995, 2025.

EGU25-18908 | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Future changes in water availability: Insights from a long-term monitoring of soil moisture under two tree species 

Vaclav Sipek, Nikol Zelikova, Jitka Touskova, Jiri Kocum, Lukas Vlcek, Miroslav Tesar, Karel Pátek, and Martin Bouda

Vegetation interacts with both soil moisture and atmospheric conditions, contributing to water flow partitioning at the land surface. Therefore, both climate and land cover changes impact water resource availability. This study aimed to determine the differential effects of climate change on the soil water regime of two common Central European forest types: Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands.

A unique dataset, including 22 years (2000–2021) of measured soil water potentials, was used with a bucket-type soil water balance model to investigate differences in evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge both between the forest types and across years. While long-term column-averaged pressure head indicated drier soil at the spruce site overall, this was driven by the wettest years in the dataset. Seasonal and interannual variability of meteorological conditions drove complex but robust differences in flow partitioning between the forest types. Higher snow interception by spruce (27 mm season-1) resulted in drier soil below the spruce canopy in the cold season. Higher transpiration by beech (70 mm season-1) led to increasingly drier soils over the warm seasons. Low summer precipitation inputs exacerbated soil drying under beech as compared to spruce. Estimated summer recharge was lower under beech (25 mm season-1) due to its lower transpiration. The difference was more pronounced (over 40 mm season-1) during wetter summers.

These suggest that expected trends in regional climate and forest species composition may interact to produce a disproportionate shift of recharge from the summer to the winter season.

How to cite: Sipek, V., Zelikova, N., Touskova, J., Kocum, J., Vlcek, L., Tesar, M., Pátek, K., and Bouda, M.: Future changes in water availability: Insights from a long-term monitoring of soil moisture under two tree species, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18908, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18908, 2025.

EGU25-19214 | ECS | Orals | HS2.4.5

Understanding tree-water relations under drought stress – a case study 

Christina Hackmann, Sharath Paligi, Michela Audisio, Alice Penanhoat, Jan Schick, Heinz Coners, Martina Mund, Dominik Seidel, Christoph Leuschner, and Christian Ammer

Climate warming and the associated rise in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) have increased transpirational demand and coupled with droughts have increased susceptibility of plants. Plant water use strategies along the isohydry gradient during hot-drought determines maintenance of plant water status. While a number of studies have investigated drought response of different tree physiological processes and found species-specific behavior, studies with a holistic approach to understand growth, water use and stem water status under different neighborhood constellations in mature trees are still lacking.

We measured stem growth and water consumption in pure and mixed European beech and Douglas fir stands during two moist (2021, 2023) and one dry year (2022) on deep sandy soil in northern Germany, using a dataset from 16 trees equipped with high-resolution band dendrometers and 32 trees with sap-flow sensors (dual-method approach). In addition, radial sap flow profiles were measured in each tree with heat-field-deformation sensors, canopy structure analysed with mobile laser scanning, soil moisture content and soil matric potential recorded at multiple depths to interpret the growth and water use patterns.

During a period of persisting drought, pure Douglas fir reached 50% soil desiccation nearly twice as fast as the pure beech and mixed beech-Douglas fir stand. However, compared to the previous, wet year (2021), pure Douglas fir had the lowest reduction in growth (12%) and mixed Douglas fir the highest (36%). Beech ranged in between, with lower growth reduction in the mixed stand. Daily sap flow rates increased with higher VPD, but decreased at <20% of relative extractable water (REW) with greatest reduction in isohydric Douglas fir compared to beech. Stem water content remained relatively high (>50%) until 20% REW, but showed a sharp decrease afterwards, along with increasing tree water deficit.

We show how different tree physiological processes and their relation change in interaction with soil moisture and VPD. The partially contrasting patterns in water use can be explained by the relatively more isohydric and anisohydric behaviour of Douglas fir and beech, respectively. Furthermore, canopy structural traits may play a key role in shaping tree species-mixture effects, favoring beech in mixture with Douglas fir under drought. Our results demonstrate how tree functional traits are influencing the forest water cycle in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Hackmann, C., Paligi, S., Audisio, M., Penanhoat, A., Schick, J., Coners, H., Mund, M., Seidel, D., Leuschner, C., and Ammer, C.: Understanding tree-water relations under drought stress – a case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19214, 2025.

EGU25-19485 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.4.5

Elucidating spatio-temporal throughfall dynamics with ULS derived forest structure density metrics 

Matthias Gassilloud, Lea Dedden, Barbara Koch, Teja Kattenborn, Markus Weiler, and Anna Göritz

Water fluxes in forests inherit complex dynamics remains poorly understood. Precipitation in forests is intercepted by the canopy and spatially redistributed, resulting in distinct patterns of throughfall and stemflow. Canopy throughfall creates spatially heterogeneous water flux patterns beneath the forest canopy, which leads to 'hot spots' of water and nutrient input to the ground and affects soil infiltration, groundwater recharge and runoff. Despite its importance, the influence of forest structure on vegetation driven water partitioning and on the emerging spatio-temporal patterns remains poorly understood. The quantification of forest morphology in high spatial and temporal resolution is a challenge. as direct approaches are labour-intensive and often require destructive sampling (e.g. count total leaf number). Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensing from Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has emerged as an effective technique to measure the three-dimensional forest structures.

Previous studies considering LiDAR derived structural metrics investigated throughfall on forest stand level with airborne laser scanning (ALS)(Schumacher & Christiansen (2015)), developed models on throughfall kinetic energy (Senn et al. (2020)) and identified  water drip points in branch architecture with TLS (Wischmeyer et al. (2024)). However, these studies are limited in their spatio-temporal resolution. Recent advances of UAV based LiDAR sensor technologies (ULS) enabled the representation of forest structures both with adequate temporal and spatial detail. Such data may be the key to track and understand precipitation dynamics in forests.

Here, we present an innovative approach that combines ULS-derived forest structure metrics and in-situ-derived throughfall measurements to explore the relationship between changes in forest structure and spatio-temporal throughfall dynamics. The ULS datasets was collected starting from April 2024 with 1-2 flights per month over a forest plot in the black forest, Germany. The dataset captures forest morphology variation within the year including tree growth and changes in structure and foliage density. Continuous throughfall measurements were collected in the center (0,4 ha area) of the forest plot. 100 tipping bucket units of an automated throughfall sampling network were mounted along transects on the ground of a mixed and pure Beech and Douglas fir stand monitoring throughfall from precipitation events of different sizes, starting November 2024. Classic trough throughfall measurements starting summer 2024 complement the dataset, which covers throughfall during dormant- and vegetation period. From the LiDAR data, we derive different metrics describing forest morphology, from voxel based point densities to experimental occlusion-related permeability metrics.

In a combined correlation analysis of density- and permeability metrics with corresponding daily spatial throughfall, the influence of phenological changes on throughfall patterns at a high spatial and temporal resolution is investigated. With this study, we aim to identify the potential of LiDAR-derived metrics of forest structure from multi-temporal datasets for forest hydrology research and to develop approaches on how to integrate metrics that are suitable descriptors for complex forest canopy structures into investigation of water fluxes in forest.

How to cite: Gassilloud, M., Dedden, L., Koch, B., Kattenborn, T., Weiler, M., and Göritz, A.: Elucidating spatio-temporal throughfall dynamics with ULS derived forest structure density metrics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19485, 2025.

Groundwater dependent forest ecosystems are globally among the most threatened forest ecosystems due to the high levels of anthropogenic pressure they often experience but also due to the effects of ongoing climate change. Access to groundwater has been suggested to increase productivity and the capacity of forest ecosystems to withstand extreme climatic events. However, it is currently unknown how spatially and temporally variable access to groundwater might influence the physiological responses of different tree species to extreme climatic conditions. Here, we analyzed time series of sub-hourly sap flow and dendrometers as well as climate and soil moisture measurements from 24 trees that have been continuously monitored since 2012. This is complemented by measurements of groundwater fluctuations. The study site is located in the Müritz National Park and is part of the TERENO Observatory in northeastern Germany. Monitored trees represented the most common species in the study area: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), European beech (Fagus sylvatica), and sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Our results showed strong differences among the studied species in terms of water use and productivity. Our results highlight the significance of long-term physiological monitoring for the assessment of the interactions between soil hydrology and forest functioning especially under extreme climatic conditions.   

How to cite: Skiadaresis, G., Heinrich, I., and Blume, T.: Does proximity to groundwater mediate the effects of climate variability and extremes on the physiology of three main European forest tree species?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19663, 2025.

EGU25-527 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Geological map level of detail and its impact on our perception of dominant streamflow processes in large-sample hydrological studies 

Thiago Nascimento, Julia Rudlang, Sebastian Gnann, Jan Seibert, Markus Hrachowitz, and Fabrizio Fenicia

Large-sample hydrology (LSH) datasets have advanced hydrological research by enabling studies across a wide range of catchments. Yet, the impact of landscape attributes included in such datasets on their ability to inform perceptual understanding of catchment behaviour remains underexplored. Here we investigate how the level of detail in maps used to derive catchment-scale geological attributes influences their correlation with streamflow signatures. For this, we used a set of streamflow signatures, and climate and landscape attributes available from the recently released EStreams dataset, alongside geological attributes derived from three geology maps of varying levels of detail: global, continental, and regional. These maps are perceived to have increasing levels of accuracy and were reclassified into four permeability classes. In order to explore scale-dependent effects, we moved from breadth to depth, that is, from a broad continental scale with less detailed analyses to a finer sub-catchment setting with more detailed investigations. We found that the correlation between streamflow signatures and geology attributes generally increased when using more detailed geological maps, drastically changing the perception of the importance of geology in influencing catchment behaviour relative to other landscape properties. In the Moselle catchment, a global geology map with other catchment attributes (e.g., climate and soils) failed to capture regional variations in many streamflow signatures. Moving to the sub-catchment level, we observed that smaller, nested sub-catchments exhibited unique correlation patterns, particularly for the baseflow index, emphasizing the nuanced controls at finer scales. Overall, regional and continental maps generally captured geological details better than global maps. This was particularly evident in areas with heterogeneous rock types, where global maps often oversimplified rock classifications. These findings underscore the importance of region-specific characteristics, which become even more pronounced at local scales, and play a crucial role in detecting meaningful correlations. This has implications for hydrological regionalization and predictions in ungauged catchments, suggesting that integrating high-quality, region-specific geological data into LSH studies is essential for accurate predictions and deeper insights into dominant streamflow generation processes.

How to cite: Nascimento, T., Rudlang, J., Gnann, S., Seibert, J., Hrachowitz, M., and Fenicia, F.: Geological map level of detail and its impact on our perception of dominant streamflow processes in large-sample hydrological studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-527, 2025.

EGU25-1208 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Swiss water quality: extending CAMELS-CH with data on isotopes, water quality and atmospheric chemistry 

Ursula Schönenberger, Thiago V. M. do Nascimento, Sandra Pool, Rosi Siber, Martina Kauzlaric, Pascal Horton, Marvin Höge, Marius Günter Floriancic, Maria Staudinger, Florian Storck, Päivi Rinta, Jan Seibert, and Fabrizio Fenicia

In the era of large-sample hydrology (LSH), there is still a lack in the availability of consistent data related to water quality. To address this gap, we introduce CAMELS-CH-Chem, a dataset inspired by the recently published CAMELS-Chem for the contiguous United States. CAMELS-CH-Chem extends CAMELS-CH (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in Switzerland) by integrating stream water chemical parameters and atmospheric deposition data for 115 monitoring stations across Switzerland. Spanning the same period as the CAMELS-CH 1981–2020, with consistent identifiers, it enables seamless integration with the original hydro-meteorological and landscape attribute data. The dataset primarily encompasses data from the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment. It includes time series of over 20 stream water chemistry constituents, covering both field and laboratory data on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and electrical conductivity both at hourly and daily time resolution; together with measurements of alkalinity, ammonium, Ca, Cl, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), total organic carbon (TOC), HCO3, K, Mg, Na, total hardness,  total dissolved nitrogen, total organic nitrogen, total phosphorus, NO3, NO2, Si, and SO4. The dataset also includes monthly time-series of stream isotope data (deuterium and oxygen-18), annual atmospheric deposition concentrations for NO3, NH4, NH3, NO2 and total inorganic nitrogen, and aggregated livestock density information. Switzerland, often referred to as the 'water tower of Europe,' offers a uniquely diverse setting for hydrological research, characterized by its varied climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic influences. This diversity, combined with the rapid changes driven by climate change, makes Swiss catchments and landscapes an interesting natural laboratory for studying evolving water systems. CAMELS-CH-Chem offers the opportunity to combine an extensive catchment characteristics and streamflow dataset with a detailed set of water quality parameters, facilitating new advances for LSH research. By providing the chance to enhance process-based understanding of the water cycle, this dataset supports studies that integrate both quantity and quality aspects of hydrological systems. To our knowledge, CAMELS-CH-Chem is only the second CAMELS dataset to incorporate such an extension. We anticipate that its release will inspire the development of similar datasets worldwide. 

How to cite: Schönenberger, U., M. do Nascimento, T. V., Pool, S., Siber, R., Kauzlaric, M., Horton, P., Höge, M., Floriancic, M. G., Staudinger, M., Storck, F., Rinta, P., Seibert, J., and Fenicia, F.: Swiss water quality: extending CAMELS-CH with data on isotopes, water quality and atmospheric chemistry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1208, 2025.

EGU25-1619 | PICO | HS2.4.7

CAMELS-NZ: Hydrometeorological times series and landscape attributes for catchments in New Zealand 

Svenja Fischer, Sameen Bushra, Jeniya Shakya, Celine Cattoen-Gilbert, and Markus Pahlow

The first large-sample catchment hydrology dataset for Aotearoa New Zealand, the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-Sample Studies—New Zealand (CAMELS-NZ), provides hourly hydrometeorological time series and detailed landscape attributes for 373 catchments across New Zealand. Spanning over the years 1972 to 2024, this dataset includes hourly records of streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. CAMELS-NZ offers a detailed set of catchment attributes that quantify physical characteristics such as land cover, soil properties, geology, topography, and human impacts. CAMELS-NZ integrates high-resolution time series data with static catchment characteristics, enabling the study of fast-rising rivers common in New Zealand. This dataset supports a wide range of hydrological research applications, including model development and climate impact assessments, prediction in ungauged basins and large-sample comparative studies. We include anthropogenic attributes on the presence of abstractions, dams, quality of rating and influences such as groundwater, snow or ephemeral rivers. CAMELS-NZ offers an opportunity to study hydrological processes in volcanic and alpine environments, while filling a critical gap of data in the Pacific region.

How to cite: Fischer, S., Bushra, S., Shakya, J., Cattoen-Gilbert, C., and Pahlow, M.: CAMELS-NZ: Hydrometeorological times series and landscape attributes for catchments in New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1619, 2025.

EGU25-1991 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Shifting seasonality of flow regimes across Europe 

Wouter Berghuijs, Sebastian Carugati, and Kate Hale

Europe hosts a diverse range of seasonal flow regimes, but this diversity remains only partially characterized. We use directional statistics to analyze streamflow seasonality across Europe, examining the timing and the temporal concentration of seasonal flow regimes. Geographical differences in seasonality are primarily shaped by climate, but regionally distinct imprints of landscape conditions (e.g. geology) appear. In many catchments, river flow seasonality has changed in recent decades. Seasonality has dampened in most nival flow regimes and increased in most pluvial flow regimes. Shifts in timing tend to be more variable within geographically and physiographically similar regions but can be linked to shifts in climate seasonality.

How to cite: Berghuijs, W., Carugati, S., and Hale, K.: Shifting seasonality of flow regimes across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1991, 2025.

EGU25-2765 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Modelling Brazilian hydrology using various input datasets and model structures 

Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Marc Vis, Jan Seibert, and Ilja van Meerveld

Large-sample hydrological datasets and increasing computational power allow us to conduct modelling studies that were previously impossible. For example, it is now possible to test how different model structures affect the simulated streamflow dynamics and model performance for a variety of catchments instead of only a handful (but well-known) catchments. While this is excellent progress, the modeller generally does not understand the physical processes nor the reliability of the data for the hundreds of catchments as well as for the limited number of catchments.

The two Brazilian large-sample hydrology datasets CAMELS-BR and CABra were created for the same purpose but differ in content as they are based on different types of meteorological data. CAMELS-BR is mainly based on large-scale data from satellite, reanalysis, and gauge data, while CABra is based on the interpolation of station data. Especially the potential evapotranspiration values differ strongly for the two datasets, with the annual sums in CAMELS-BR being only 50 to 70 % of those in CABra. This situation enables us to test if different model structures enhance process representation or mainly compensate for flawed input data.

We tested the two datasets with three versions of the HBV model. Aside from the standard version simulating soil moisture and evapotranspiration, percolation, and streamflow from groundwater, we used a model version that can accommodate inter-catchment groundwater flow (i.e., inflow or outflow of groundwater), as well as a simpler version of the model in which a constant part of the precipitation is assumed to become groundwater and the remaining part is not explicitly included (i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration are not explicitly simulated). Although evapotranspiration is represented in a very simplified manner, this has the advantage that no (uncertain) potential evapotranspiration data are required. Interception losses can be represented better as they are not part of the evapotranspiration from the soil routine.

Our results show that large-sample datasets are very useful for testing different model structures and thus representation of hydrological processes. Regardless of the dataset used, the model version has a large effect on the streamflow simulations. The best results were usually achieved with the simplified soil routine, even though it has fewer parameters that need to be calibrated. Allowing for intercatchment groundwater flow improved the performance compared to the standard version of the model in many cases as well.

How to cite: Clerc-Schwarzenbach, F., Meyer Oliveira, A., Vis, M., Seibert, J., and van Meerveld, I.: Modelling Brazilian hydrology using various input datasets and model structures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2765, 2025.

EGU25-3523 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Climate and landscape control on seasonal and annual water balance in snow-influenced catchments 

Zeqiang Wang, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Nicholas J. K. Howden, and Ross Woods

Snowmelt-driven streamflow provides water for ecosystems and one billion people. The total and temporal variability of available streamflow depends on how water fluxes are influenced by individual catchments and their climatic setting. Climate factors typically cause different seasonal and annual water balance between large regions but influences on local variations remain less understood. Here we show how both climate and landscape (expressed as soil drainage nonlinearity) control seasonal and annual water balances of 219 snowy catchments across the contiguous United States. These highly diverse catchments are first classified into three groups that are largely climatologically homogenous. This grouping indicates that climate (aridity and climate seasonality) causes distinct hydrological differences between regions. We apply a common framework to these separate group that indicates that climate also shapes what factors further drive within-region differences. Specifically, in humid catchments with winter-dominated precipitation (located in the Pacific Northwest) streamflow seasonality and annual water balances are insensitive to differences in the fraction of precipitation falling as snow (snow fraction). In relatively arid catchments with winter-dominated precipitation (located in the Rocky Mountains) larger snow fractions lead to more annual streamflow with stronger streamflow seasonality and their higher soil drainage nonlinearity enhances these effects. However, in the Northeast and the Great Lakes (where precipitation is less seasonal or summer dominated) higher soil drainage nonlinearity leads to less streamflow. We explain these paradoxical sensitivities by showing how the effect of soil drainage nonlinearity and snow fractions vary regionally depending on the prevailing water and energy balance regimes.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Berghuijs, W. R., Howden, N. J. K., and Woods, R.: Climate and landscape control on seasonal and annual water balance in snow-influenced catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3523, 2025.

EGU25-3576 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Analysis of the quality and completeness of UK river flow data - a long-term view 

Gayatri Suman, Stephen Turner, Katie Muchan, Catherine Sefton, Amit Kumar, Matthew Fry, Oliver Swain, Jamie Hannaford, and Isabella Tindall

Globally, access to hydrometric data with sufficient record length, quality, and geographical coverage to address research questions and manage freshwater systems remains a significant challenge. The UK National River Flow Archive (NRFA) oversees river flow data from over 1,600 locations across the UK. Data from almost 1,000 stations are acquired and displayed as ‘provisional’ in real-time, while the NRFA conducts a comprehensive update to the quality-controlled dataset annually. Upon submission, river flow records undergo both automated data screening and manual quality control by trained hydrologists to ensure the highest quality data are disseminated to the Archive’s broad user community, making it fit-for-purpose for various applications.

In the 1990s, increasing gaps in river flow records and declining data quality led to the introduction of a Service Level Agreement (SLA) in 2002, to safeguard the UK’s hydrometric network and its data. This paper presents the results from 20 years of applying the SLA system, analysing a set of quantifiable indicators of data quality, completeness and provision. The observed improvements underscore the advantages of the SLA in enhancing the reliability of the nationally archived river flow data. Furthermore, it serves as a model for quality assurance and performance measurement systems that can be adopted as best practice by other monitoring networks globally. These results also demonstrate a method of helping to ensure hydrological databases provide high-quality information to meet current and future research and water management needs.

How to cite: Suman, G., Turner, S., Muchan, K., Sefton, C., Kumar, A., Fry, M., Swain, O., Hannaford, J., and Tindall, I.: Analysis of the quality and completeness of UK river flow data - a long-term view, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3576, 2025.

EGU25-4371 | PICO | HS2.4.7

CAMELS-GB v2: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain 

Gemma Coxon, Yanchen Zheng, Rafael Barbedo, Felipe Fileni, Hayley Fowler, Matt Fry, Amy Green, Helen Harfoot, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiaobin Qiu, Saskia Salwey, and Doris Wendt

Large-sample hydrological datasets containing data for tens to thousands of catchments are invaluable for hydrological process understanding and modelling. CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies) datasets are a family of large-sample hydrology datasets that contain hydro-meteorological timeseries, catchment attributes and boundaries for large-samples of catchments for specific countries or regions. CAMELS-GB was the first large-sample, open access data for Great Britain, consisting of hydro-meteorological catchment time series, catchment attributes (describing topography, climate, hydrology, land cover, soils, hydrogeology, and human influences), and catchment boundaries for 671 catchments. 

While CAMELS-GB, released in 2020, is a valuable dataset, there are important gaps in the current dataset. Firstly, CAMELS-GB only contains daily hydro-meteorological timeseries, when sub-daily timeseries is often needed for flood characterisation in small catchments across Great Britain. Secondly, CAMELS-GB only contains static catchment attributes (i.e. one snapshot of a geophysical property in time) which makes it challenging to use for trend analyses. Thirdly, groundwater is an important resource in Great Britain, yet no groundwater level timeseries are available in CAMELS-GB.

Here, we present the second version of CAMELS-GB which contains new datasets including hourly hydro-meteorological timeseries, groundwater level timeseries, dynamic catchment attributes characterising changes in land cover and static catchment attributes characterising groundwater timeseries and reservoirs. We update the existing data in CAMELS-GB to lengthen the timeseries of the daily hydro-meteorological timeseries and include the latest rainfall and PET data for Great Britain. The data will be made open access and available on the Environmental Information Data Centre.

How to cite: Coxon, G., Zheng, Y., Barbedo, R., Fileni, F., Fowler, H., Fry, M., Green, A., Harfoot, H., Lewis, E., Qiu, X., Salwey, S., and Wendt, D.: CAMELS-GB v2: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4371, 2025.

EGU25-4768 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Extending Caravan with additional weather nowcast and forecast products 

Guy Shalev and Frederik Kratzert

About two years ago, we started the Caravan community dataset. The idea behind was two-fold: 

1) Caravan standardizes the streamflow data from different regional large-sample hydrology datasets (e.g. various CAMELS datasets) and combines them with data from globally available data sources. 

2) All data in Caravan, besides streamflow, is derived from Google Earth Engine, with code that has been made publicly available (https://github.com/kratzert/Caravan/ ) , allowing anyone to extend the dataset to new regions.

Additionally, the dataset structure allows for easy integration of what we call “community extensions” and so far, six different community extensions (https://github.com/kratzert/Caravan/discussions/10 ) have been made available, extending Caravan to a total of 22494 gauges.

With this submission, we want to present a new kind of extension to the Caravan project, which does not add new basins (i.e. streamflow data) but rather adds additional weather data for all existing basins. More specifically, we add three additional precipitation nowcast products (CPC, IMERG Early v.0.7, and CHIRPS), and three weather forecast products (ECMWF IFS HRES, GraphCast, and CHIRPS-GEFS). For the ECMWF IFS forecast data, as well as for GraphCast, we include not only precipitation but several land surface variables.

Since not all of this data is available on Earth Engine, we process this data for all existing Caravan gauges, including all extensions. In agreement with the existing data in Caravan, we spatially average all weather data across the catchment area and aggregate to daily resolution. However, since not all data can be easily shifted to local time (as with the original ERA5-Land data in Caravan), we keep all weather products in UTC and therefore also include ERA5-Land in UTC for consistency.

To our knowledge, this extension to Caravan makes it the first large-sample hydrology dataset that includes real weather forecast data. We hope that this extension can be used to enable and empower hydrological research, specifically working on forecasting problems.

How to cite: Shalev, G. and Kratzert, F.: Extending Caravan with additional weather nowcast and forecast products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4768, 2025.

EGU25-6450 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Large sample hydrology and the value of data 

Sebastian Gnann and Thorsten Wagener

A key aim of large sample hydrology is to gain generalizable insights by comparing the functioning of hydrological systems across many locations and, by doing so, across many spatial gradients. To be informative, large sample datasets must therefore contain locations that cover the gradients of interest (e.g. in climate, topography, geology) and they must quantify these gradients in a meaningful way (e.g. as catchment attributes). Despite the increasing availability of open datasets with growing coverage and diversity, recent research has highlighted several limitations of the datasets currently used, which may compromise the insights gained in large sample studies. Here we will discuss three problems associated with large-sample hydrological data, as well as some possible consequences and solutions.

(1) Data uncertainty, which arises because we cannot exactly measure the variables of interest at the relevant scales.

(2) Data representativeness, i.e., the issue that our data may not represent the actual variables of interest because they are either measured indirectly, must be processed in some way, or contain subjective choices.

(3) Data imbalance, i.e., the issue that certain regions are omitted or disproportionately represented in our datasets, which may lead to biased results.

While identifying and addressing these issues is challenging, it will not only increase the value of large sample datasets, but ultimately also improve our understanding of hydrological processes and our predictive modeling capabilities.

How to cite: Gnann, S. and Wagener, T.: Large sample hydrology and the value of data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6450, 2025.

EGU25-6535 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Spatial variability and temporal changes in inter-catchment groundwater flow across the contiguous United States 

Chao Lei, Larisa Tarasova, Stefano Basso, Matthew J. Cohen, Andreas Musolff, and Christian Schmidt

The assumption of a closed water balance in catchments is central to many hydrological applications. However, emerging evidence suggests that catchments can lose water to surrounding areas, extending their influence beyond topographic boundaries. Understanding whether a topographic catchment acts as a groundwater importer or exporter—and how these roles evolve temporally—is crucial for effective water resource management. Previous studies using the water balance approach often relied on long-term averages and single catchments, limiting insight into temporal dynamics. This study examines inter-catchment groundwater flow (IGF) using precipitation, evapotranspiration, and discharge data from 685 gauging stations across the contiguous United States for the period 1981–2020. By employing a moving window averaging approach, we quantified IGF variability across 330 subcatchments formed by neighboring gauging stations. To enhance robustness, three independent evapotranspiration datasets and three window intervals (10, 15, and 20 years) were examined. IGF was derived as a residual term in the water balance equation, where positive IGF indicates a losing catchment and vice versa. We found that more than 60% of the subcatchments exhibit clearly increasing water losses over the study period. The median value of the annual increase of IGF has been quantified up to 0.36% of annual discharge. In this contribution, we will further explore drivers of the observed spatial variability in IGF using five time-invariant catchment descriptors (e.g., topographic characteristics, distance to the coast) and three time-variant descriptors (e.g., land use changes, precipitation seasonality) to understand possible controls of groundwater interactions. Comparison against the Budyko framework and case studies informed from the existing literature will support the reliability of our findings. This study offers new insights into the dynamic behavior of IGF and its drivers in the gauged subcatchments, advancing the understanding of groundwater interactions and informing sustainable water management practices.

How to cite: Lei, C., Tarasova, L., Basso, S., J. Cohen, M., Musolff, A., and Schmidt, C.: Spatial variability and temporal changes in inter-catchment groundwater flow across the contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6535, 2025.

EGU25-6659 | PICO | HS2.4.7

CAMELS-FR dataset: A large-sample hydroclimatic dataset for France to explore hydrological diversity and support model benchmarking 

Olivier Delaigue, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Pierre Brigode, Benoît Génot, Charles Perrin, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Bruno Janet, Nans Addor, and Vazken Andréassian

Initially limited by data availability and computing resources, hydrological modelling has advanced significantly with efforts to make test catchments widely accessible, by sharing hydrological data, like it was made by the landmark MOPEX initiative (Schaake et al., 2006). In France, the CAMELS-FR dataset (Delaigue et al., 2024c, 2024d) was developed to support large-scale hydrological studies, gathering near-natural catchments, in line with the CAMELS dataset already built in various countries (see e.g. Addor et al., 2017).

The CAMELS-FR dataset features daily hydroclimatic time series, also aggregated at the monthly and yearly time steps. In addition, the dataset includes catchment-specific attributes covering location, topography, climatic indices, gauging characteristics, hydrological signatures, hydrogeology, geology, soil characteristics, land cover, and level of human influences. The criteria for catchment selection were based on data availability, low-level of regulation, consistency of catchment area estimates, and data quality.

The first version of the CAMELS-FR dataset comprises data from 654 catchments across France, with time series spanning from 1970 to 2021, and 255 attributes organized into 10 classes. These catchments encompass a wide range of hydroclimatic contexts, from snow and groundwater-dominated to Mediterranean climates.

The CAMELS-FR dataset is complemented by graphical fact sheets (Delaigue et al., 2024a) that provide static summaries of hydroclimatic, topographical, hydrogeological, and land cover data, as well as dynamic graphs of hydroclimatic time series (Delaigue et al., 2024b) for interactive analysis.

Designed as a "living" dataset, CAMELS-FR will undergo updates to extend time series, correct streamflow values, and add new catchments, including overseas territories. Future versions may include data at finer temporal and spatial resolutions. An extension into the global Caravan initiative (Kratzert et al., 2023) is also planned.

References

Addor, N., Newman, A. J., Mizukami, N., and Clark, M. P.: The CAMELS data set: catchment attributes and meteorology for large-sample studies, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21, 5293–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5293-2017, 2017.

Delaigue, O., Brigode, P., Lobligeois, F., Bourgin, P.-Y., and Guimarães, G. M.: CAMELS-FR graphical fact sheets, https://doi.org/10.57745/KK2SVJ, V1, 2024a.

Delaigue, O., Génot, B., and Guimarães, G. M.: CAMELS-FR time series dynamic graphs, https://doi.org/10.57745/HBQWP5, V1, 2024b.

Delaigue, O., Guimarães, G. M., Brigode, P., Génot, B., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: CAMELS-FR dataset, https://doi.org/10.57745/WH7FJR, V1, 2024c.

Delaigue, O., Guimarães, G. M., Brigode, P., Génot, B., Perrin, C., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Janet, B., Addor, N., and Andréassian, V.: CAMELS-FR dataset: A large-sample hydroclimatic dataset for France to explore hydrological diversity and support model benchmarking, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-415, in review, 2024d.

Kratzert, F., Nearing, G., Addor, N., Erickson, T., Gauch, M., Gilon, O., Gudmundsson, L., Hassidim, A., Klotz, D., Nevo, S., Shalev, G., and Matias, Y.: Caravan - A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology, Scientific Data, 10, 61, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-01975-w, 2023.

Schaake, J., Cong, S., and Duan, Q.: The US mopex data set, IAHS Publication Series, 307, 9–28, https://www.osti.gov/biblio/899413, 2006.

How to cite: Delaigue, O., Guimarães, G. M., Brigode, P., Génot, B., Perrin, C., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Janet, B., Addor, N., and Andréassian, V.: CAMELS-FR dataset: A large-sample hydroclimatic dataset for France to explore hydrological diversity and support model benchmarking, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6659, 2025.

EGU25-6722 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Root zone storage as a key driver of catchment precipitation partitioning in the Budyko framework 

Muhammad Ibrahim, Fransje van Oorschot, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Ruud van der Ent, and Markus Hrachowitz

Quantification of long-term partitioning of precipitation into evaporation and runoff is a fundamental pursuit in catchment hydrology. The Budyko framework provides a theoretical basis for this and estimates the evaporative fraction based on the aridity index via the Budyko curve. However, deviations from the global-average Budyko curve suggest additional controls on precipitation partitioning beyond the aridity index. We hypothesized that root zone storage capacity (Sr), defined as maximum subsurface water accessible to vegetation roots, is a key driver of these deviations. The relationship between Sr  and precipitation partitioning in the Budyko space was investigated globally across >5000 catchments. Sr was calculated using the memory method based on streamflow observations and water balance. The omega parameter (ω) from Fu’s equation was used to determine the catchment’s position in the Budyko space, reflecting precipitation partitioning. Results revealed a strong positive correlation (Spearman’s ρ=0.68) between Sr and ω globally indicating Sr as a dominant driver of precipitation partitioning. Further analysis based on Köppen-Geiger climatic zone classification revealed variations in the Sr relationship, with the strongest correlations observed in cold (ρ=0.87) and Mediterranean (ρ=0.83) climates, followed by temperate (ρ=0.76), tropical (ρ=0.64) and arid climates (ρ=0.61). These findings indicate that the influence of Sr on precipitation partitioning varies across different climatic regions, with a particularly strong impact observed in cold and Mediterranean climates. This study extends prior theoretical and regional insights to a global scale confirming Sr as a governing factor in modulating catchment precipitation partitioning in the Budyko space. Vice-versa, the water and energy limits of the Budyko space provide a theoretical basis for the upper limits in Sr found in nature. The findings emphasize the variability of the Sr relationship across climatic zones and underscore the importance of incorporating Sr dynamics in global water resources assessments.

How to cite: Ibrahim, M., van Oorschot, F., Coenders-Gerrits, M., van der Ent, R., and Hrachowitz, M.: Root zone storage as a key driver of catchment precipitation partitioning in the Budyko framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6722, 2025.

EGU25-6732 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Annual Streamflow Modelling Using Large-Sample Datasets: Insights from Hybrid Models and Seasonal Synchronicity 

Antoine Degenne, François Bourgin, Vazken Andréassian, and Charles Perrin

Large-sample datasets of catchments offer opportunities to explore the hydroclimatic and physiographic controls on hydrological processes across various spatial and temporal contexts. This study leverages a global dataset of over 4,000 catchments to investigate how annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and seasonal synchronicity influence streamflow dynamics. Seasonal synchronicity, reflecting the temporal alignment of precipitation and evapotranspiration, is identified as a key factor in shaping hydrological responses and improving our understanding of inter-annual variability.

We use a hybrid-modelling framework where a dense neural network, trained on catchment descriptors, is employed to parameterize a simple annual hydrological model. The hydrological model is characterized by three easily interpretable coefficients, each representing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation, evapotranspiration, and their synchronicity. By systematically evaluating regionalization across spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal contexts, we demonstrate the potential for transferring insights and functional understanding from data-rich to data-scarce catchments.

This work contributes to advancing hydrological synthesis by linking catchment descriptors with dominant hydrological controls and exploring the representativeness of global catchment datasets. Our findings underline the importance of harmonized large-sample datasets and systematic workflows for uncovering annual hydrological processes and enabling robust predictions in ungauged basins.

How to cite: Degenne, A., Bourgin, F., Andréassian, V., and Perrin, C.: Annual Streamflow Modelling Using Large-Sample Datasets: Insights from Hybrid Models and Seasonal Synchronicity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6732, 2025.

EGU25-6750 | PICO | HS2.4.7

CAMELS-DK: Hydrometeorological Time Series and Landscape Attributes for 3330 Danish Catchments with Streamflow Observations from 304 Gauged Stations  

Julian Koch, Jun Liu, Simon Stisen, Lars Troldborg, Anker Højberg, Hans Thodsen, Mark Hansen, and Raphael Schneider

Large-scale datasets of hydrometeorological time series and catchment attributes are essential for advancing the understanding of hydrological processes, advancing hydrological model development, and enabling performance benchmarking. CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) datasets have already been published for various regions worldwide covering a wide range of hydrometeorology and physiography.  

We introduce a CAMELS-style dataset for Denmark (CAMELS-DK) containing predominantly lowland, groundwater-influenced, and small-sized catchments. With respect to already published CAMELS datasets, we see this as a valuable extension that enlarges the variability of catchments. 

Moreover, this is the first CAMELS dataset to include both gauged and ungauged catchments as well as detailed groundwater information. CAMELS-DK comprises dynamic and static variables for 3,330 catchments across Denmark, derived from diverse hydrogeological datasets, meteorological observations, and simulated variables provided by the National Hydrological Model of Denmark. From the latter, a comprehensive list of simulated groundwater related variables like phreatic depth or groundwater-surface water interactions, are included. Streamflow observations are available for 304 catchments, while simulated streamflow data are provided for a total of 3,330 catchments. The dataset spans 30 years (1989–2019) at a daily temporal resolution. Additionally, the dataset includes variables capturing human impacts on Denmark's water resources, such as groundwater abstraction and irrigation.

By providing streamflow at almost full spatial coverage of Denmark, and not being limited to gauged sites, along with various simulation outputs from a distributed, process-based hydrological model, CAMELS-DK significantly enhances the utility of CAMELS datasets. This includes supporting the development of data-driven and hybrid/physically informed modeling frameworks.

The dataset is accessible via Koch et al. (2024) and the paper describing the dataset is currently under review (Liu et al., 2024).

Koch, J., Liu, J., Stisen, S., Troldborg, L., Højberg, A. L., Thodsen, H., Hansen, M. F. T., and Schneider, R. J. M.: CAMELSDK: Hydrometeorological Time Series and Landscape Attributes for 3330 Catchments in Denmark, https://doi.org/doi:10.22008/FK2/AZXSYP.

Liu, J., Koch, J., Stisen, S., Troldborg, L., Højberg, A. L., Thodsen, H., Hansen, M. F. T., and Schneider, R. J. M.: CAMELS-DK: Hydrometeorological Time Series and Landscape Attributes for 3330 Catchments in Denmark, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-292, in review, 2024. 

How to cite: Koch, J., Liu, J., Stisen, S., Troldborg, L., Højberg, A., Thodsen, H., Hansen, M., and Schneider, R.: CAMELS-DK: Hydrometeorological Time Series and Landscape Attributes for 3330 Danish Catchments with Streamflow Observations from 304 Gauged Stations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6750, 2025.

EGU25-6922 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Regionalization of Flow Duration Curves in Southern Italy 

Fatemeh Moradi, Roberta Padulano, and Giuseppe Delgiudice

The Flow Duration Curve (“FDC”) is one the most effective and practical tools in hydrological sciences that not only enhances the understanding of the hydrological process of basins but also assists in analyzing water availability and stream flow fluctuations. The most significant challenge hydrologists have to face is an absence or scarcity of flow data in ungauged basins, where direct measurements are not feasible. To tackle this issue, regionalization of FDCs has emerged as a persuasive method. This approach, while applying available information in different basins, allows for reconstructing the hydrologic response in unmonitored basins.

This study focuses on the regionalization of FDCs in Southern Italy, containing 114 hydrological stations located in the Regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria, and Puglia, whose surface accounts for about 20% of the Italian country. For these areas, the only available authoritative information consists of archival reports of daily discharge and monthly rainfall and runoff over the period 1924 to 1994, characterized by gaps, repetitions, and ambiguities. Also, the complete river network and the outer boundary of the primary basins are available. No precise information is available for the location of the monitored sections.

For the first step (completed), historical data on daily discharge and monthly rainfall and runoff from 1924 to 1994 were digitized from archival paper reports collected by the National Hydrological Service (now expired) for 114 monitored sections, and their reliability was verified. For all the catchments, a hydrologically connected Digital Elevation Model was created integrating the authoritative Italian 20m × 20m DTM with the abovementioned physiographic information: this allowed for accurate reconstruction of physical, hydrological, topographic, and morphologic features in the GIS environment. The database was further refined with land use/land cover data from the CORINE initiative, with geological information coming from local maps, and with ancillary variables such as the baseflow index.

Currently, efforts are in progress to identify the main dependencies between flow variables and covariates in the database, to find common patterns and recursive behaviors. However, the data mining process is deeply intertwined with the choice of the regionalization methodology, which drives the main parameters and quantities to be investigated. Some issues that are being explored at present comprise (but are not limited to): i) understanding differences, similarities, and potential of annual FDCs and total FDCs (i.e. obtained by year-by-year or full-period records respectively); ii) investigation about relevant percentiles of FDCs representing low, high and semi-perennial flows; iii) normalization of FDCs; iv) cluster analysis also relying on Artificial Intelligence.

At a more mature stage, research will allow us to compare the results of different regionalization techniques, including parametric and non-parametric approaches, statistical methodologies, and quantile-based techniques. A comprehensive assessment of the relationship between hydrological and physiographic features will promote the construction of predictive models for streamflow behavior in unmonitored basins, fostering more efficient water resource planning and management in data-constrained locations.

Keywords: Regionalization, Flow Duration Curve, Digitalization, Geographic Information System (GIS), Southern Italy

How to cite: Moradi, F., Padulano, R., and Delgiudice, G.: Regionalization of Flow Duration Curves in Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6922, 2025.

EGU25-7023 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Drought-to-flood transitions: exploring new indicators using large-sample datasets 

Mattia Neri, Giovanni Selleri, and Elena Toth

The study of the occurrence of abrupt hydrological extremes changes, and in particular the shift from extended dry periods to flood events is of particular interest for the stakeholders dealing with the operational management of environmental hazards. In fact, when floods occur during or soon after drought periods, early warning systems can become inaccurate and water management practices may fall short in reducing the risk of both extremes (e.g. Fowler et al., 2020; Ward et al., 2020).

In this study, we take advantage of the hydrometeorological time-series from more CAMELS-type datasets around the globe to propose and test indicators to characterise the drought-to-flood transition, understood as the basin's propensity to generate flood volumes during or immediately after droughts.

In a first phase, high flow events are identified using a fixed streamflow threshold, while drought events are characterized by means of the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Then, a set of signatures based on the co-occurrence and severity of compound drought and high flow events are calculated for all the study catchments, and their spatial pattern across the different areas of the globe is analysed. In particular, such indicators consider both the magnitude and the seasonality of high flow volumes occurring during or after drought periods.

The proposed metrics could support the hydrologic community in understanding the dynamics guiding compound events across the continents. Moreover, they could be useful in climate change impact studies to assess the evolution of combined drought and flood periods with important implications for practical risk management.

References

Fowler, K., Knoben, W., Peel, M., Peterson, T., Ryu, D., Saft, M., Seo, K., & Western, A. (2020). Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections. Water Resources Research, 56(5), e2019WR025286. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025286

Ward, P. J., De Ruiter, M. C., Mård, J., Schröter, K., Van Loon, A., Veldkamp, T., Von Uexkull, N., Wanders, N., AghaKouchak, A., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Capewell, L., Llasat, M. C., Day, R., Dewals, B., Di Baldassarre, G., Huning, L. S., Kreibich, H., Mazzoleni, M., Savelli, E., … Wens, M. (2020). The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies. Water Security, 11, 100070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100070

How to cite: Neri, M., Selleri, G., and Toth, E.: Drought-to-flood transitions: exploring new indicators using large-sample datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7023, 2025.

EGU25-7031 | PICO | HS2.4.7

The UKCEH Flood Event Data Suite 

Gianni Vesuviano, Matthew Fry, Oliver Swain, Hollie Cooper, Felipe Fileni, Amulya Chevuturi, and Doran Khamis

Flood event analysis, using both rainfall and river flow data, enables understanding of how river catchments respond to different rainfall events under varying antecedent conditions, initial conditions, and rainfall event characteristics. (e.g. mean and peak rainfall intensity, initial flow rate, antecedent rainfall total). Large datasets of flood events, collected across many river catchments, can enhance our understanding of how catchment properties influence catchment response, and how changes in catchment and climate characteristics cause changes in rainfall-runoff relationships during flood events. These datasets can support the development of flood risk and flood response models, and increase resilience to extreme events.

The UKCEH Flood Event Data Suite consists of a procedure to identify paired rainfall-runoff events from paired time-series, the dataset of events identified when applied to open-access UK precipitation and flow data, and a database of rainfall statistics and runoff signatures derived from those events.

The procedure identifies paired rainfall-runoff events by starting at peak flow and extending forwards and backwards to common start and end times that encapsulate both complete rainfall and complete runoff events. Using open-access data, the procedure is intended to be re-run periodically as the input data sources are updated, with the resulting dataset versions made available through an interactive public portal hosted by the UK National River Flow Archive, and static “snapshots” released periodically through the UK Environmental Information Data Centre.

The dataset in its most recent form includes approximately 175,000 paired rainfall-runoff events extracted from 1200 gauged catchments over a long monitoring period (1990-2016 inclusive), for approximately 5.4 events per station per year, at a high time resolution consistent across all events (15 minutes for flow, 60 minutes for rainfall). Other key features include a high station density (approximately 1 per 200 km2), a wide range of catchment properties, including area (< 1 to approximately 10,000 km2), mean annual rainfall (approximately 500 to 3500 mm/year), baseflow index (approximately 0.2 to 1) and urbanization (0% to approximately 70%), long flow recessions captured, publicly available catchment shapefiles, allowing users to extract information from other spatial datasets using consistent catchment outlines, a single peer-reviewed source for all rainfall data, and (planned) wide availability through an open access repository and portal.

Analysis of a high-quality subset of the derived database of rainfall statistics and runoff signatures (677 catchments, ~7500 events) has identified that different catchment descriptors influence peak flow, total volume and rate-of-rise, changing with event rarity, correlations between peak flow and total volume increase with catchment size, and summer events typically have high rates-of-rise and volumes relative to baseflow, while spring events typically have the opposite.

How to cite: Vesuviano, G., Fry, M., Swain, O., Cooper, H., Fileni, F., Chevuturi, A., and Khamis, D.: The UKCEH Flood Event Data Suite, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7031, 2025.

EGU25-7142 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Advancing continental-scale hydrology model calibration using large-sample emulators: from simple conceptual to complex process-based land models  

Guoqiang Tang, Andy Wood, Mozhgan Farahani, Naoki Mizukami, and Sean Swenson

Land/hydrologic model advances have significantly enhanced the capability to simulate complex hydrological processes. However, the accuracy of these simulations is often undermined by uncertainties in model parameters, many of which are poorly constrained by observations, as well as the high computation demand of sophisticated models, which restricts their optimization. To address these challenges, we developed a machine learning (ML)-based calibration approach using large-sample emulators (LSEs) to optimize and regionalize model parameters.  We have now evaluated an LSE for three models spanning a range of complexity: the conceptual HBV hydrologic model, the process-based SUMMA hydrologic model, and the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM) land model.

Our LSE approach leverages static catchment attributes and parameter values across basins to train ML emulators, which are then coupled with optimization algorithms (e.g., Genetic Algorithm) to iteratively refine parameter estimates. This iterative process enhances both the accuracy and number of parameter samples, progressively improving model performance. Results show that the LSE-based optimization achieved median modified Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE') values of 0.65 for CTSM, 0.76 for SUMMA, and above 0.8 for HBV. Those values are competitive with or better than comparable model calibration results in past years, and outperform local calibrations based on single-site emulators (SSEs). This presentation will highlight the methodologies, key results, and challenges of implementing LSE-based calibration for hydrologic and land models at a continental scale, emphasizing the potential for regionalization and improved predictive capabilities in large-domain hydrologic modeling.

How to cite: Tang, G., Wood, A., Farahani, M., Mizukami, N., and Swenson, S.: Advancing continental-scale hydrology model calibration using large-sample emulators: from simple conceptual to complex process-based land models , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7142, 2025.

EGU25-7222 | PICO | HS2.4.7

The World Water Map Insights: visualizing global water demand and supply 

Niko Wanders, Myrthe Leijnse, Bram Droppers, Ana Paez Trujillo, and Marc F.P. Bierkens

Together with National Geographic and ESRI, we have developed the World Water Map: insights (https://livingatlas.arcgis.com/wwm-insights/) which provides modelled historical, current, and projected data of freshwater availability by source and use by sector to inform research, conservation, policy, and journalism.

This World Water Map insights provides robust open-source data sets and visualization of freshwater supply and demand that can be queried by source, sector, region and country, and by past, present, and projected future climate models. Users can gather data and create visualizations that inform research and tell stories of freshwater use, investigate what’s driving demand, and inspire sustainable adaptations and solutions.

The ‘insights Version’ compiles 40+ years of hydrological data from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB 2, a grid-based global hydrology and water resources model and GRACE satellite data to chart global freshwater supply and demand to a scale of 100 square kilometres.

This service allows users to make data summaries, obtain time series data and acquire direct access to state-of-the-art climate projections and large-scale hydrological data that is otherwise not accessible for a larger scientific and policy community.

How to cite: Wanders, N., Leijnse, M., Droppers, B., Paez Trujillo, A., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: The World Water Map Insights: visualizing global water demand and supply, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7222, 2025.

EGU25-9546 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

New products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre 

Zora Leoni Schirmeister, Markus Ziese, Elke Rustemeier, Peter Finger, Astrid Heller, Raphaele Schulze, Magdalena Zepperitz, Siegfried Fränkling, Michael Jahn, and Jan Nicolas Breidenbach

Since 1989, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) provides several globally gridded precipitation analyses based on in situ rain gauge measurements. The underlying precipitation database is mainly made up of contributions from the national meteorological and hydrological services of around 190 countries worldwide, but also from data collections of international projects. The database expands continuously, regarding the number of stations and length of timeseries. All incoming data (metadata and observations) undergo a semi-automatic quality control to ensure a high quality of GPCC’s data sets.

The GPCC provides data sets that cover very long time periods of 40 up to 130 years (‘Full Data Daily’, ‘Full Data Monthly’, ‘Climatology’, ‘HOMPRA-Europe’), as well as near-real time analyses ('First Guess Monthly', 'First Guess Daily', 'Monitoring Product', ‘Provisional Daily Precipitation Analysis’ and 'GPCC Drought Index'). In 2024, GPCC released the second version of HOMPRA Europe (Homogenized Precipitation Analysis for Europe Version 2), presenting a unique homogenized data set based on thousands of stations from 1951 to 2015 for Europe. In 2025, the GPCC will release updates of two particularly valuable data sets: Climatology (1951-2020) and Full Data Monthly (1891-2024) & Daily (1982-2024). These data sets are based on the complete database of the GPCC (up to 126’000 stations) and all data undergo an extensive quality control. In addition, some major changes to improve the quality of the data sets are planned, like assessing the interpolation scheme and merging the Full Data Monthly with the Monitoring Product.

All gridded data sets presented are freely available in netcdf format on the GPCC website https://gpcc.dwd.de and referenced by a digital object identifier (DOI). The site also provides an overview of all data sets, as well as a detailed description and further references for each data set.

How to cite: Schirmeister, Z. L., Ziese, M., Rustemeier, E., Finger, P., Heller, A., Schulze, R., Zepperitz, M., Fränkling, S., Jahn, M., and Breidenbach, J. N.: New products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9546, 2025.

EGU25-10411 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Development of CAMELS-Nordic, a large-scale hydrometeorological and catchment properties dataset for Norway and Sweden 

Kristen Valseth, Lars Valnes, Gaute Lappegard, Olga Silantyeva, and Kent-Andre Mardal

Historically, hydrologic studies have focused on one or a small number of basins, in many cases these studies were limited by data availability and computational resources. The increased availability of large hydrological datasets in the last 20 years, such as gridded meteorological data sets and streamflow timeseries, and increased computing resources have empowered large-sample hydrology studies having accessible and high-quality large datasets available to the science community to facilitate the evaluation of hydrologic processes and prediction questions. To support modeling and climate research efforts in the Nordics the CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies)-Nordic was collected and processed from multiple sources and databases into a coherent dataset for the entirety of Norway and Sweden. CAMELS-Nordic combines not only meteorological and hydrological, but also topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soil, and geology data with python tools to update time series automatically. The development of the data package takes advantage of high-quality and freely available data from various Norwegian, Swedish, and European agencies.  It includes: (1) daily forcing data (e.g. observations, interpolations, and modeled data) for catchments located in Norway and Sweden; (2) daily streamflow data; (3) digital elevation model; (4) catchment properties (size, location, elevation, and catchment files); (5) landcover; and (6) soil type data. Dataset time series span 1980 to 2022.

How to cite: Valseth, K., Valnes, L., Lappegard, G., Silantyeva, O., and Mardal, K.-A.: Development of CAMELS-Nordic, a large-scale hydrometeorological and catchment properties dataset for Norway and Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10411, 2025.

The rainfall-runoff process at the catchment scale is governed by a complex interplay of physical and climatic driving mechanisms that vary in space and time. Although this variability makes it challenging to generalize catchment hydrological processes, classifying catchments in terms of their similarity can help identify spatial patterns with implications for e.g., the prediction of hydrological processes in ungauged locations. Previous studies identified spatial patterns of catchments with similar driving mechanisms of the rainfall-runoff process at the event scale by grouping catchments according to e.g., event runoff coefficients, event timescales (ratio of total event runoff to peak event runoff), or correlation coefficients between runoff characteristics and hydro-meteorological variables. However, the variability of rainfall-runoff events in a catchment over time has rarely been taken into account in previous catchment classification schemes. Here, we applied an event-based two-stage clustering approach to 378 essentially snow-free catchments with diverse physical and climate attributes in the contiguous United States. First, we clustered runoff events based on selected event runoff characteristics in each catchment into three clusters containing different event runoff shapes of short, medium, and long event timescales (catchment scale). Then, we clustered the catchments based solely on their hydro-meteorological event conditions corresponding to the three event runoff clusters and evaluated the identified catchment groups in terms of their physical and climate attributes (continental scale). As a result, we derived five groups comprising catchments with similar hydro-meteorological event conditions for the three event runoff shapes, revealing a distinct spatial pattern: In catchments dominated by a humid climate with low rainfall seasonality (number of catchments n=126), mean event rainfall intensities were primarily decisive for the clustering of event runoff into different shapes. In catchments of similar climate but larger forest cover, both mean event rainfall intensities and total event rainfall sums influenced the event clustering (n=116). In very humid regions (aridity index < 0.5) showing high rainfall seasonality (n=28), the total event rainfall sum was the only factor determining the event timescale. Furthermore, in arid lowland catchments with high rainfall seasonality (n=57), the event timescale increased with increasing antecedent soil moisture, similar to the group of arid catchments with comparably lower rainfall seasonality (n=51). Thus, we assume that in arid catchments, during dry conditions, rainfall quickly became runoff via e.g., overland flow, while during wetter conditions, slower catchment flow paths were activated (subsurface flow), leading to larger event timescales. Conversely, in humid catchments, soil water storage varied less, so rainfall characteristics themselves primarily determined the shape of runoff events. Our study demonstrates that using an event-based clustering approach results in meaningful spatial catchment groups, complementing catchment classification schemes based on long-term hydrological signatures. By focusing on the temporal variability of event runoff shapes within a catchment, regions comprising catchments with similar hydro-meteorological event conditions decisive for this variability can be identified.

How to cite: Hövel, A., Stumpp, C., Woods, R., Zheng, Y., and Stockinger, M.: Identification of catchments with similar hydro-meteorological conditions during rainfall-runoff events: An event-based clustering approach for 378 catchments in the contiguous United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10711, 2025.

EGU25-11109 | PICO | HS2.4.7

What would be the best date to start the water year? 

Marc Vis, Franziska Clerc-Schwarzenbach, Maria Staudinger, Ilja van Meerveld, and Jan Seibert

To calculate annual values for the water balance, the water year (or hydrological year) is usually used instead of the calendar year. This is done to avoid that precipitation from one year influences runoff in the following year. In snow-dominated catchments in the northern hemisphere, for example, such a carryover would occur regularly if the calendar year were used to aggregate hydrological data. To ensure that the snow melts in the year in which it fell, calculations are usually based on hydrological years that start in early fall (e.g., October 1 or November 1). In other climates, a different start of the water year is used, e.g., to ensure that it does not start in the middle of the monsoon season. Worldwide, there is a wide variation in the definition of the start date of the water year.

As the water year is used for many hydrological analyses, all annual statistics are potentially influenced by the chosen start date. The water balance for a particular year depends on how the 12-month periods is defined. Similarly, the definition of the 12-month periods is also important when calculating statistics such as annual peak flows, as it depends on whether large peaks in, for example, April and October are assigned to the same year (i.e., only one of them is considered) or to two years.

In this study, we use a modeling approach to numerically evaluate the definition of a water year and discuss how the water year would be best defined for different hydroclimatic regions. For this purpose, the runoff and storage was simulated for over 600 catchments in the USA with the HBV model. We analyzed the time series of the simulated snow, soil and groundwater storage and defined the ideal starting point of the water year from a water balance perspective as the date for which the interannual variation in total storage is the smallest. The results show that the optimal definition of the starting point of the water year varies considerably from region to region.

How to cite: Vis, M., Clerc-Schwarzenbach, F., Staudinger, M., van Meerveld, I., and Seibert, J.: What would be the best date to start the water year?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11109, 2025.

EGU25-11253 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Unravelling the Drivers: Spatial Insights into Climate and Landscape Influences on European Streamflow Behaviour 

Julia M. Rudlang, Thiago V. M. do Nascimento, Ruud van der Ent, Fabrizio Fenicia, and Markus Hrachowitz

Understanding hydrological systems is vital for addressing water-related challenges, including hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. A complex interplay of climate and land-use changes shapes European river flow. While this interplay has been studied in specific subregions, a comprehensive analysis across continental to regional scales is yet to be unravelled.

In this study, we use the extensive European streamflow dataset, EStreams (do Nascimento et al., 2024), to investigate the relative influence of climate and landscape characteristics on streamflow behaviour across 7000 catchments.

To identify the primary drivers of streamflow behaviour, we first clustered catchments into 10 groups based solely on their hydrological signatures, deliberately excluding climate-related signatures to focus on hydrological similarity. This approach ensured that each cluster represented distinct patterns of streamflow behaviour.

Further, the drivers of these clusters were explored at both continental and regional scales. While climate emerged as the dominant driver of streamflow behaviour at the continental scale, a different pattern was observed within the clusters. By analysing regional-scale variability within each cluster, landscape characteristics—such as topography, geology, vegetation and soil properties—were found to play a larger role in shaping streamflow.

The relative contributions of climate and landscape characteristics were quantified using random forest models, applied separately to each cluster. These models revealed the relative importance of individual factors, offering insights into the nuanced controls of streamflow behaviour.

This analysis highlights three key findings. First, distinct clusters of hydrologically similar catchments can be identified across Europe using streamflow-based signatures alone. Second, climate characteristics are the primary drivers of streamflow behaviour at the continental scale. Third, dominant landscape characteristics are identifiable at the regional scale when accounting for within-cluster variability.

In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of multi-scale approaches to understanding hydrological systems. Using EStreams, a detailed perspective is offered on the interplay between climate and landscape in shaping European streamflow.

 

References

do Nascimento, T. V. M., Rudlang, J., Höge, M., van der Ent, R., Chappon, M., Seibert, J., Hrachowitz, M., & Fenicia, F. (2024). EStreams: An integrated dataset and catalogue of streamflow, hydro-climatic and landscape variables for Europe. Scientific Data, 11(1), 879. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03706-1

How to cite: Rudlang, J. M., do Nascimento, T. V. M., van der Ent, R., Fenicia, F., and Hrachowitz, M.: Unravelling the Drivers: Spatial Insights into Climate and Landscape Influences on European Streamflow Behaviour, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11253, 2025.

EGU25-11922 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Towards Accurate Flood Predictions in Small, Fast-Responding Catchments Using Hourly CAMELS-DE Data 

Alexander Dolich, Eduardo Acuña Espinoza, and Ralf Loritz

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have recently emerged as powerful data-driven approaches for rainfall-runoff modeling, often outperforming traditional hydrological models. However, their application has been predominantly tested on daily time steps and larger catchments (>250 km²). In this study, we push these boundaries by investigating the potential of LSTMs for flash flood prediction in smaller, fast-responding catchments. We leverage a refined version of the CAMELS-DE dataset, processed at hourly resolution, to capture the rapid hydrological dynamics that typify flash flood events. Hourly discharge and water level observations from federal agencies in Germany are combined with meteorological inputs from the German Weather Service (DWD), enabling a detailed assessment of the benefits of refined temporal resolution for LSTM-based modeling. 

Our findings reveal that while LSTMs demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting peak discharges and event timing, performance degrades significantly during summer convective storms, characterized by localized and intense rainfall. We investigate whether this drop in performance is related to limitations in the LSTM architecture and training strategy or is due to increasing uncertainties in the meteorological boundary conditions. We further investigate when, where and how the use of hourly resolution data affects model performance. The study provides critical insights into the challenges and opportunities of using data-driven approaches for flash flood forecasting in small, fast-responding catchments, contributing to the development of more robust hydrological prediction systems. In addition, we present a preliminary version of CAMELS-DE in hourly resolution, opening new possibilities for research in the field of large sample hydrology.

How to cite: Dolich, A., Acuña Espinoza, E., and Loritz, R.: Towards Accurate Flood Predictions in Small, Fast-Responding Catchments Using Hourly CAMELS-DE Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11922, 2025.

EGU25-13788 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

R-Grunsky: an empirical method for globally predicting streamflow using precipitation and temperature data 

Bruno Marchezepe, André Almagro, André Ballarin, and Paulo Oliveira

In the early 1900s, engineer Carl E. Grunsky developed an empirical equation relating mean annual precipitation to mean annual runoff in the San Francisco Peninsula, California, United States of America (USA). Over a century later, this method, now referred to as the R-Grunsky, was reintroduced and generalized by incorporating a rainfall-streamflow coefficient (α) derived from mean annual temperature and precipitation. Previous studies have demonstrated its effectiveness in Mediterranean and Brazilian catchments. Here, we aim to expand the applicability of the R-Grunsky method by analyzing data from 14,894 catchments from the Caravan dataset, spanning Australia, Brazil, Chile, Great Britain, Europe, and the USA. We first developed a global relationship between α and the catchments' mean temperature and precipitation, subsequently fitting a multiple linear regression model to estimate α values for streamflow prediction using a simplified equation system. The R-Grunsky approach showed suitable results in mean annual streamflow estimation, with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.47 and R² = 0.66 considering all studied catchments. The results align with those from previous studies of the method developed to Brazilian catchments. However, we noted that arid regions, primarily in Australia, central USA, northeastern Brazil, and northern Chile, exhibited lower KGE values, indicating reduced performance compared to wetter catchments, which requires further investigation. The R-Grunsky approach offers the advantage of requiring only precipitation and mean temperature data for streamflow predictions, making it particularly valuable for ungauged catchments. Consequently, it holds significant potential for diverse water resource projects and decision-making processes related to water security and management.

How to cite: Marchezepe, B., Almagro, A., Ballarin, A., and Oliveira, P.: R-Grunsky: an empirical method for globally predicting streamflow using precipitation and temperature data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13788, 2025.

EGU25-14913 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Quantifying the uncertainty of evapotranspiration estimates for unregulated Norwegian catchments using multiple hydrological models and remote sensing products 

Shaochun Huang, Olga Silantyeva, Emiliano Gelati, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Kolbjørn Engeland, and Lena M. Tallaksen

Previous studies show high uncertainty of evapotranspiration (ET) estimates for Norway, ranging from about 200 to more than 500 mm/year. It is partly due to sparce ET measurements in Norway to constrain the ET process in the hydrological modelling, and partly due to the uncertainty of precipitation (P) observations, especially in high mountainous regions with complex topography. In this study, we aim to quantify the uncertainty of ET estimates for 66 Norwegian catchments based on three hydrological models and four global remote sensing products. All the selected catchments are small (< 1000 km2), non-regulated and non-glacierized, with long-term discharge (Q) observations and runoff coefficient less than one (i.e. P>Q). These catchments differ substantially in climatic and hydrological characteristics and span the five hydrological regimes commonly used in Norway (Atlantic, Mountain, Inland, Baltic, and Transition). The three hydrological models (HBV, LISFLOOD and Shyft) are calibrated against daily discharge between 1981 and 2000 using three objective functions (KGE, KGE+LKGE, and KGE+BoxcoxKGE) and validated between 2001 and 2020 using six criteria (KGE, LKGE, BoxcoxKGE, percent Bias (PBias), and KGE  and PBias in the snow free period). The latter two criteria are specifically selected to evaluate the model performance in simulating ET given the absence of direct ET measurements. The snow free period is identified for each catchment and year based on a daily fractional snow-covered area data at 500 m spatial resolution produced from a combined MODIS dataset (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1). The four global remote sensing estimates of ET are obtained from BESSV2, ETMonitor, PML_V2 and SSEBop_V2 datasets and they are available at fine spatial resolution (≤0.05°) and monthly time steps. The calibration and validation results show that the three hydrological models perform best using different objective functions for each hydrological regime and target variable (discharge and ET). The uncertainty ranges of annual mean ET are up to 177 mm based on all hydrological model results and remote sensing products. Using the best performing hydrological model results as the benchmark, all remote sensing products overestimate ET for the mountain regime and PML_V2 gives the best estimate for the other four hydrological regimes.

How to cite: Huang, S., Silantyeva, O., Gelati, E., Yilmaz, Y. A., Engeland, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Quantifying the uncertainty of evapotranspiration estimates for unregulated Norwegian catchments using multiple hydrological models and remote sensing products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14913, 2025.

EGU25-15030 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Filling Streamflow Data Gaps in Indian Catchments Using Machine Learning 

Hiren Solanki and Vimal Mishra

Complete hydrological time series are critical for effective water resource management, flood and drought forecasting, hydroelectric power optimization, irrigation planning, ecological preservation, and climate change impact assessments. However, significant data gaps in streamflow and water level observations, compounded by extreme hydroclimatic events and quality control issues, hinder accurate modeling and informed decision-making in Indian catchments. The current challenges are particularly pronounced in regions with high climatic variability, where missing data spans 6 to 12 months. To address this, we employed geomorphological, meteorological, and hydrological parameters in combination with the Random Forest method to gap-fill streamflow data at 352 stations across India, except the transboundary basins. To enhance model accuracy and training, we categorized stations into similar-behaving classes using a k-means clustering algorithm based on catchment characteristics. This clustering increased the availability of training data for machine learning models. Streamflow data from each class was trained with 80% of the available data and validated on the remaining 20%. Our results indicate that clustering significantly improves performance, with over 100 stations reporting a >25% increase in Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). Model performance was evaluated for continuous data gaps of 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year, revealing a decline in accuracy with longer gaps. Despite this, the mean NSE exceeded 0.85 across all clusters. The gap-filled datasets provide robust hydrographs, enabling precise streamflow variability modeling, climate-hydrology interaction evaluation, and improved water resource management strategies.

How to cite: Solanki, H. and Mishra, V.: Filling Streamflow Data Gaps in Indian Catchments Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15030, 2025.

EGU25-15538 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

A new resource on Italian large dams, their catchments, and key attributes 

Giulia Evangelista, Paola Mazzoglio, Daniele Ganora, Francesca Pianigiani, and Pierluigi Claps

Italy, like many other Mediterranean countries, is increasingly facing meteo-hydrological hazards, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and intense. These changing conditions pose serious risks to dam safety and call for a reassessment of spillway design floods to adapt to evolving hydrological scenarios.

Historical flood data may no longer reflect the full range of potential events, highlighting the urgent need for updated and accurate hydrological information. In response to this challenge, the Italian Large Dams Committee emphasized the importance of improving hydrological data at dam sites to improve flood management strategies.

In this context, we present a comprehensive dataset that include geometrical characteristics, as well as watershed-related features, for all 528 large dams in Italy. Freely accessible on Zenodo, this dataset represents the most extensive resource available on Italian dams, providing precious structural and environmental information to researchers, policy makers and stakeholders involved in water resource management and infrastructure planning.

The dataset presents detailed structural information about each dam, such as commissioning year, height, and type, alongside data on reservoir features like volume, surface area, and intended uses. Some of this information is sourced from the General Department of Dams and Hydro-Electrical Infrastructures. Notably, it also includes critical parameters such as reservoir surface area and the elevation of the maximum water level allowed, which are essential for assessing each dam’s capacity to mitigate flood peaks effectively.

On the other hand, key catchment characteristics, such as size, shape, slope, and land cover, are crucial for modeling flood scenarios and addressing these escalating risks. The database contains basin characteristics, including geomorphological, soil, land cover and climatic attributes, as well as basin boundaries, that are determined using standardized and uniform procedures, ensuring consistency throughout the country. Taking into account the availability of the "twin" dataset from Claps et al. (2024), a wide level of detail is therefore provided on about a thousand watersheds, all over Italy, including both dammed and gauged watersheds.

As climate change and water resource challenges intensify, a thorough understanding of our existing infrastructure becomes crucial. In this sense, this work can help to improve our capability to manage the complex interplay between dams and their hosting environment.

How to cite: Evangelista, G., Mazzoglio, P., Ganora, D., Pianigiani, F., and Claps, P.: A new resource on Italian large dams, their catchments, and key attributes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15538, 2025.

One of the current goals of large-scale hydrological modelling within the FOCCUS project (https://foccus-project.eu) is improved estimation of water and matter runoff to the coastal regions of Europe. The main challenges and decisions that are typically made for physically based modelling are as follows: the complexity of the model, the level of process representation in the model, the number of models involved in the modelling chain, and a level of regionalization of model parameters. Creating a parsimonious model and using enough data to achieve the desired results are also challenging. In order to account for geographical variability of the model parameters, calibration at a large number of subbasins is necessary when implementing increasingly complex hydrological models at large scale. Our research focuses on the level of regionalization of parameters and assessment of model performance for coastal vs full domain calibration.

The Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE) model (1), used here for large-scale hydrological analyses, is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model. Regional precipitation corrections tested in the previous European-domain HYPE (E-HYPE) version improved the model performance by helping to compensate for systematic biases in the water balance (2). However, the addition of these precipitation corrections also introduces uncertainty to the model calibration, as the corrections could just compensate for model biases instead of addressing underlying problems in the model structure or process representation. The calibration strategy for the current E-HYPE version 4 has one “global” parameter set that is used for the European domain to limit the amount of parameter regionalization. E-HYPE calibration was further improved using performance filters for parameter sets and assessment of model behaviour including snow water equivalent, reservoir sedimentation, and stream resuspension. We explore the effects of regional calibration against the coastal gages on the overall model performance and process description as well as on the freshwater inflows to coastal areas. We discuss the trade-offs between regionalised coastal-oriented calibration and full-domain model tuning, point out the main factors limiting model performance, and investigate the effect of diversified calibration workflow based on soil/landuse dependent parameters.

References:

  • SMHI, 2023. HYPE Model Documentation. 〈http://www.smhi.net/hype/wiki/〉
  • Brendel, C., Capell, R., & Bartosova, A. (2023). To tame a land: Limiting factors in model performance for the multi-objective calibration of a pan-European, semi-distributed hydrological model for discharge and sediments. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies50, 101544.

How to cite: Terskii, P., Bartosova, A., and Brendel, C.: Trade-offs between regionalised and non-regionalized calibration of a continental model for estimating European coastal river inflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15548, 2025.

EGU25-15892 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Impact of climate change on streamflow in France: Towards new river flow regimes? 

Eric Sauquet, Laurent Strohmenger, and Guillaume Thirel

A large transient multi-scenario and multi-model ensemble of future streamflows and groundwater projections in France developed in a national project named Explore2 was recently published (Sauquet et al., 2024). The main objective of the Explore2 dataset is to provide a rich and spatially consistent information for the future evolution of hydrological resources in France using a large ensemble of EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections (Coppola et al., 2021) and a large variety of hydrological models.

The aim of the present study is to use a classification of river flow regimes on the hydrological projections from the Explore2 dataset to assess how hydrological processes will change in response to climate change at the catchment scale.

A simple, but well-adapted classification based on a hierarchical cluster analysis is adopted here. The classification is based on the twelve monthly Pardé coefficients derived from 611 time series of near natural observed streamflow, leading to seven characteristic river flow regimes in France over the period 1976-2005.

The Pardé coefficients were computed on 30-year periods for four time slices, namely the baseline (1976-2005), near future (2020-2049), mid-century (2041-2070), and end of the century (2070-2099) periods for each hydrological projection and for 2500 simulation points located across France. A representative regime is assigned to each simulation point corresponding to the most frequent regime identified among all hydrological projections.

River flow regime derived from the historical runs is used to assess the performance of the hydrological models at each gauged basins. The shifts in river flow regimes (between the future and baseline periods) reflect and summarize the evolution in rainfall-runoff processes due to climate change.

Overall, the predominantly rain-fed hydrological regimes will change for more contrasted regime during the 21st century. The basins with transition regimes (combining snow and rain contributions) will likely shift towards pluvial regimes. Basins at higher altitudes will keep their nival character but will have less contrasted regimes, with potentially less severe low flow in winter, and a decrease in summer flow for rivers influenced by glaciers.

References:

Coppola et al.: Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 126, e2019JD032356. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356, 2021.

Sauquet et al.: A large transient multi-scenario multi-model ensemble of future streamflows and groundwater projections in France, ESSD, submitted.

Strohmenger et al.: On the visual detection of non-natural records in streamflow time series: challenges and impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023.

How to cite: Sauquet, E., Strohmenger, L., and Thirel, G.: Impact of climate change on streamflow in France: Towards new river flow regimes?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15892, 2025.

EGU25-16305 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Dominant and compounding drivers of monthly-to-multi-year streamflow droughts in Central Europe 

Giulia Bruno and Manuela I. Brunner

Streamflow droughts originate from the interplay of dominant atmospheric processes (i.e., deficits in rain or snow) and compounding conditions at the land surface, specifically evapotranspiration (E) and sub-surface storage. Furthermore, these events can last from a few weeks to multiple years. The dominant drivers of streamflow droughts depend on event type and catchment characteristics. Yet, how dominant and compounding drivers of streamflow droughts vary from monthly to multi-year events and across the landscape remains unclear. To address this knowledge gap, we use a large sample of near-natural catchments in Central Europe. For this case study, we quantify the relative contribution of (i) deficits in rain and snow and (ii) anomalies in E and S to streamflow droughts of varying duration (from monthly to multi-year). To do so, we blend data from ground-based observations, reanalysis datasets, and hydrological modelling covering the last four decades. We show that the contribution of different hydro-climatological processes to streamflow droughts varies with drought duration, onset time, and catchment characteristics. By providing a synthesis of the hydro-climatological drivers of streamflow droughts for a variety of time scales and catchment types, this study can assist regional drought monitoring and management.

How to cite: Bruno, G. and Brunner, M. I.: Dominant and compounding drivers of monthly-to-multi-year streamflow droughts in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16305, 2025.

EGU25-16357 | PICO | HS2.4.7

The Helmholtz Earth & Environment Sensor Management System in hydrological sciences - A case study 

Christof Lorenz, Nils Brinckmann, Tobias Kuhnert, Knut Günther, Heiko Thoss, Ulrich Loup, and David Schäfer

To say that high quality observatory datasets play an important role in hydrological research would be an understatement. Their accessibility is a crucial aspect in the scientific practice. When we talk about access of these datasets, we often hear one famous buzzword: FAIR - making data findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable.

But fulfilling the FAIR-principles requires the enrichment of our observatory datasets with comprehensive and consistent metadata. In particular, we need metadata about spatial and temporal context as well as environmental conditions, logger settings, sensor accuracy and resolution, as these parameters directly impact the usability of the data. Furthermore, the integration, management and export of all these information should be as user-friendly and consistent as possible so that researchers and instrument operators do not have to cope with complex metadata standards, terminologies and semantics.

In the DataHub initiative of the Helmholtz Centers of the Research Field Earth & Environment, we have hence developed the so-called Sensor Management System (SMS) as user-friendly one-stop-platform for collecting, managing and providing all senor-related metata in a homogenized and standardized way. Our system further supports the registration of devices and the generation of PIDs via B2INST, the documentation of changes on measurement setups, the linkage with data infrastructures as well as an API for machine-to-machine interaction, e.g., within data science applications.

The SMS has now reached a level of maturity that allows the full-fledged management of comprehensive sensor and measurement infrastructures, like the ones operated by the Hydrology-Section of the Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences. In this contribution, we therefore want to present the current state of our Sensor Management System, how it can simplify the management and ensure a sustainable and transparent operation of hydrological sensor systems and, finally, help hydrologists and instrument maintainers to make their research data FAIR.

How to cite: Lorenz, C., Brinckmann, N., Kuhnert, T., Günther, K., Thoss, H., Loup, U., and Schäfer, D.: The Helmholtz Earth & Environment Sensor Management System in hydrological sciences - A case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16357, 2025.

Understanding how data uncertainties impact on our analyses is essential to draw the right conclusions about hydrological processes and their change in space and time. However, understanding the impact of data uncertainties is challenging when working with large numbers of catchments: data uncertainty estimates are rarely available from data providers and producing such estimates requires substantial efforts.

In the absence of such ‘hard’ information about data uncertainty, Westerberg and Karlsen (2024), suggested using ‘soft’ information to qualitatively estimate discharge data uncertainty and to summarise the soft information in a generalized perceptual model of uncertainty. They use three categories of soft information: station characteristics, climate and flow regime, and catchment characteristics. An example of soft information about the flow regime is that there are rare extreme high flows, this impedes high flow gauging and therefore increases high flow uncertainty. Another example of a climate characteristic is the presence of river ice-cover that increases low flow uncertainty.

In this study, we take the generalized perceptual model of discharge data uncertainty from Westerberg and Karlsen and translate it into catchment and station metadata from the Camels-GB dataset (Coxon et al., 2020) and the UK National River Flow Archive (https://nrfa.ceh.ac.uk). This enables us to evaluate how useful soft information is to identify stations with low and high data uncertainty by comparing it to the ‘hard’ uncertainty estimates at hourly and daily time scales from previous detailed stage–discharge rating curve uncertainty analyses (Coxon et al., 2015; Westerberg et al., 2016). We explore which metadata are most useful as soft information about high and low flow uncertainty respectively and recommend useful metadata on discharge data uncertainty to be included in large sample datasets.

 

Coxon, G., J. Freer, I. K. Westerberg, T. Wagener, R. Woods, and P. J. Smith (2015), A novel framework for discharge uncertainty quantification applied to 500 UK gauging stations, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5531–5546, doi:10.1002/2014WR016532.

Westerberg, I. K., T. Wagener, G. Coxon, H. K. McMillan, A. Castellarin, A. Montanari, and J. Freer (2016), Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 1847–1865, doi:10.1002/2015WR017635.

Coxon, G., Addor, N., Bloomfield, J. P., Freer, J., Fry, M., Hannaford, J., Howden, N. J. K., Lane, R., Lewis, M., Robinson, E. L., Wagener, T., and Woods, R. (2020): CAMELS-GB: hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes for 671 catchments in Great Britain, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2459–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2459-2020.

Westerberg, I. K., & Karlsen, R. H.  (2024). Sharing perceptual models of uncertainty: On the use of soft information about discharge data. Hydrological Processes, 38(5), e15145. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15145

How to cite: Westerberg, I. and Coxon, G.: Can we use soft information to estimate discharge data uncertainty for large samples of catchments?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16412, 2025.

EGU25-17310 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Climate sensitivities of mean and extreme flows across Europe 

Anna Luisa Hemshorn de Sánchez, Wouter Berghuijs, Anne Van Loon, Dimmie Hendriks, and Ype van der Velde

Climate change is expected to modify hydrological processes, but its impacts on streamflow remain poorly understood across large geographic regions. Using streamflow and climate data from ~6,000 European catchments, we quantify the responses of streamflow means and extremes to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at annual and seasonal timescales. We find that annual mean, minimum, and maximum flows generally positively scale with mean annual precipitation, but with overall different responses. For most catchments, changes in streamflow are percentage-wise larger than those of precipitation, indicating an amplification of climate impacts on hydrology. The sensitivities of annual minimum flows are generally dampened compared to precipitation changes. We also discuss how streamflow responds to potential evapotranspiration and explore the role of catchment characteristics on these climate sensitivities of streamflow. This research helps to understand hydrological responses to climate change, which can improve water management and flood-risk mitigation across Europe.

How to cite: Hemshorn de Sánchez, A. L., Berghuijs, W., Van Loon, A., Hendriks, D., and van der Velde, Y.: Climate sensitivities of mean and extreme flows across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17310, 2025.

EGU25-17403 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

Exploring watershed similarities through machine learning and watershed descriptors: enhancing hydrological predictions 

Gabriele Bertoli, Kai Schröter, Rossella Arcucci, and Enrica Caporali

The increasing variability of precipitation and temperature extremes under climate change requires advanced methodologies to better understand and predict watershed responses. Watersheds with similar features are expected to exhibit comparable hydrological responses to meteorological events, and by clustering them, we aim to improve knowledge transfer from data-rich to data-scarce regions and enhance hydrological process analysis and prediction.

Our approach leverages machine learning to cluster watersheds based on shared characteristics, such as topography, land cover, soil properties and geology, proposing an expanded perspective on watershed similarities and their implications on the understanding of hydrological phenomena.

We utilize 62 lumped watershed descriptors provided by the LamaH-CE large-sample hydrology dataset (https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4529-2021) including key attributes for each catchment, such as area, mean elevation, slope, land use, NDVI, soil porosity, and rock permeability. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was first applied to reduce dimensionality and identify the most significant watershed descriptors. Next, four unsupervised learning models - K-means, Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), Hierarchical Clustering, and DB Scan - were implemented for clustering the watersheds using the selected descriptors. The models’ performances were systematically evaluated and compared regarding shape factors and cluster interpretation across different watershed categories. Advanced dimensionality reduction techniques and arbitrary descriptor selection were tested to ensure robustness of the procedures. Stability testing and hyperparameter optimization further confirmed the clustering models. The resulting clusters were explored through detailed maps and 2D and 3D plots, revealing patterns of similarity across diverse geographic and hydrological regions in the LamaH-CE domain. For instance, watersheds that are characterized by large areas and modest elevations ranges are in the same cluster, even if they are not hydrologically connected or close to each other. Especially when working at large spatial scales, where basins with different response types are analysed together, watershed clustering allows to tailor specific modelling and analysis techniques for different watershed clusters, providing additional and more precise knowledge on watershed behaviour.

Future research steps will focus on testing this methodology as a basis for transferring knowledge from gauged to ungauged basins within the same cluster, enhancing predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Beyond hydrological predictions, the clusters of watershed characteristics can also find applications in water resources planning and management in low-data regions supporting more informed decision-making.

How to cite: Bertoli, G., Schröter, K., Arcucci, R., and Caporali, E.: Exploring watershed similarities through machine learning and watershed descriptors: enhancing hydrological predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17403, 2025.

EGU25-17977 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Groundwater level observations dataset for the Mediterranean region 

Seifeddine Jomaa, Rafael Chávez García Silva, Amir Rouhani, Nahed Ben-Salem, Nadim K. Copty, Slaheddine Khlifi, Siwar Ben Nsir, Emmanouil A. Varouchakis, Michael Rode, Alper Elçi, David Andrew Barry, and J. Jaime Gómez-Hernández

Water scarcity in the Mediterranean region is increasing due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures. to This situation has intensified drought, reduced streamflow, and decreased soil moisture, putting additional pressure on groundwater to mitigate water stress. Despite the critical importance of groundwater use, there is a lack of centralized and detailed groundwater level data in the Mediterranean region, which is essential for sustainable water resources management. This study aims to establish a comprehensive, accurate and up-to-date groundwater level dataset in the Mediterranean region.

The dataset was primarily constructed using available nationwide observation wells from Mediterranean countries and was further enriched with additional research project-based observation wells. It includes groundwater level data with more than 15800 observation wells in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Türkiye, and Tunisia. The historical data (1900-2024) frequency varies from daily to weekly, monthly, bimonthly, and biannually, with the earliest records originating from France. The highest proportion of daily and weekly measurements also comes from wells in France, whereas 90% of the observations in Portugal and Spain were recorded at monthly or bimonthly intervals. The collected groundwater dataset will be presented and discussed. Consistent and detailed monitoring and sharing of groundwater level data are essential for sustainable water management, especially in areas known for water scarcity and rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.

How to cite: Jomaa, S., Chávez García Silva, R., Rouhani, A., Ben-Salem, N., K. Copty, N., Khlifi, S., Ben Nsir, S., A. Varouchakis, E., Rode, M., Elçi, A., Andrew Barry, D., and Gómez-Hernández, J. J.: Groundwater level observations dataset for the Mediterranean region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17977, 2025.

EGU25-19161 | PICO | HS2.4.7

On the Global Consistency of Climate Impacts on Seasonal River Flow Regimes in Snow-Influenced Catchments 

Ross Woods, Zeqiang Wang, Nicholas Howden, and Wouter Berghuijs

The impact of climate on seasonal streamflow regimes is generally well understood in a qualitative sense, and forms the basis for classifications of streamflow regimes (e.g. pluvial, nival, glacial etc). However, these classifications are mainly descriptive, and have limited resolution since the number of classes is small. Hydrology would be further advanced if (i) we could make a quantitative synthesis using hydrological process knowledge, and (ii) we could resolve in more detail the differences between catchments which belong to the same class.

In this presentation we focus on the seasonal flow regimes of snow-influenced catchments, making use of large sample data sets such as the EStreams data as well as CAMELS data (USA, Chile).  There is a substantial body of research on how climate affects the streamflow regimes of snow-affected catchments of the (western) USA, but only limited synthesis beyond this region. Here we will start to examine the extent to which lessons learned from US seasonal snow hydrology are transferable elsewhere, and explore the reasons for differences.

How to cite: Woods, R., Wang, Z., Howden, N., and Berghuijs, W.: On the Global Consistency of Climate Impacts on Seasonal River Flow Regimes in Snow-Influenced Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19161, 2025.

EGU25-19958 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.7

AquaFetch: A Unified Python Interface for Water Resource Dataset Acquisition and Harmonization 

Sara Iftikhar, Ather Abbas, and Hylke Beck

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the release of datasets across various domains, including water resources. This surge is driven by advancements in computational and storage technologies, as well as the growing need to develop robust, accurate data-driven solutions to address challenges such as climate change, water scarcity, and environmental pollution. As a result, a wealth of national and global spatio-temporal datasets has become freely accessible online. These datasets are invaluable for applications like flood forecasting, climate change analysis, aquatic ecosystem management, improving drinking water safety, and optimizing wastewater treatment processes.

Despite the availability of these datasets, importing them into Python remains cumbersome. Researchers must often sift through multiple sources, including search engines, GitHub repositories, and various websites, to locate the necessary data. The diversity of data providers means datasets are frequently presented in inconsistent units and stored in varying formats. Additionally, many datasets require extensive preprocessing before they can be used for analysis or modeling. This makes acquiring, cleaning, organizing, and managing data a complex task requiring advanced data handling skills.

These challenges highlight the need for a unified, consistent, automated, and reusable framework for extracting hydrological and environmental data. The water-datasets package addresses this gap by leveraging data-handling tools such as Pandas, NumPy, xarray, and Shapely to offer a streamlined workflow for automatic data extraction from multiple sources in various formats.

hydro-harmony is a Python package designed for the automated downloading, parsing, cleaning, and harmonization of freely available water resource datasets related to rainfall-runoff processes, surface water quality, and wastewater treatment. The package currently supports 66 datasets, downloading and transforming raw data into consistent, easy-to-use analysis-ready data. This allows users to directly access and utilize the data without labor-intensive and time-consuming preprocessing.

The package comprises three submodules, each representing a different type of water resource data: `rr` for rainfall-runoff processes, `wq` for surface water quality, and `wwt` for wastewater treatment. The rr submodule offers data for 47,716 catchments worldwide, encompassing both dynamic and static features for each catchment. The dynamic features consist of observed streamflow and meteorological time series, averaged over the catchment area, available at daily or hourly time steps. Static features include constant parameters such as land use, soil, topography, and other physiographical characteristics, along with catchment boundaries. This submodule not only provides access to established rainfall-runoff datasets such as CAMELS and LamaH but also introduces new datasets compiled for the first time from publicly accessible online data sources. The `wq` submodule offers access to 16 surface water quality datasets, each containing various water quality parameters measured across different spaces and times. The `wwt` submodule provides access to 22,201 experimental measurements related to wastewater treatment techniques such as adsorption, photocatalysis, and sonolysis.

The development of water-datasets was inspired by the growing availability of diverse water resource datasets in recent years. As a community-driven project, the codebase is structured to allow contributors to easily add new datasets, ensuring the package continues to expand and evolve to meet future needs.

How to cite: Iftikhar, S., Abbas, A., and Beck, H.: AquaFetch: A Unified Python Interface for Water Resource Dataset Acquisition and Harmonization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19958, 2025.

EGU25-20107 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Toward the return to the historical natural flow regime in highly managed rivers: a pilot experience in the South of Spain 

Eva Contreras Arribas, Raquel Gómez Beas, Rafael Pimentel Leiva, Luis Domínguez Romero, Carmelo Escot Muñoz, and María José Polo Gómez

In highly managed rivers where the presence of reservoirs has completely altered the natural regime of the river, returning to the historical natural flow regime is an increasingly distant option. However, managers and water authorities must establish criteria to ensure the ecological status of water bodies following the recommendations of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Often integrating this objective competes with the rest of water uses, making maintaining a balance that brings on both human development and environmental conservation a challenge. This issue is especially crucial in unmonitored basins in which the natural hydrological regime conditions prior to alteration are unknown. 

To face this challenge, interdisciplinary collaborations connecting stakeholders and research arise for both improving operational hydrology services and achieving science-informed policies. This work brings an example of that science-policy-practice nexus through a collaboration between university and business. The pilot area to host the experience is the Rivera de Huelva basin, located in the South of Spain, where a state-owned water company manages the three reservoirs which spatially and temporally allocate water resources in the basin. An approach combining historical streamflow and operation data and hydrological modelling will allow us to assess natural hydrological conditions in this unmonitored and regulated basin, as well as the definition of an environmental flow regime in drought and/or scarcity situations. Our outcomes will help reservoir managers to set the basis for the design of new minimum environmental flow rates which are founded on the principles of the natural flow regime paradigm.

 

Acknowledgments: This work has been funded by the project CONV 39-27 UCO-EMASESA, in the framework of the TED/934/2022-PCAU00006, funded by MITECO and by European Union NextGenerationEU/PTR.

 

How to cite: Contreras Arribas, E., Gómez Beas, R., Pimentel Leiva, R., Domínguez Romero, L., Escot Muñoz, C., and Polo Gómez, M. J.: Toward the return to the historical natural flow regime in highly managed rivers: a pilot experience in the South of Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20107, 2025.

EGU25-21044 | PICO | HS2.4.7

Modernizing Flood Forecast Data Access with the CEMS Early Warning Data Store (EWDS) 

Mohamed Azhar, Christel Prudhomme, Shaun Harrigan, Edward Comyn-Platt, Oisín M. Morrison, Eduardo Damasio da Costa, and Corentin Carton de Wiart

The Early Warning Data Store (EWDS), introduced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), represents a major advancement in the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). Launched on 26 September 2024, the EWDS is a modern, user-focused system for hosting and disseminating CEMS-Flood datasets from the European and Global Flood Awareness Systems (EFAS and GloFAS), which provide vital data for flood forecasting, disaster preparedness, and water resource management.
In 2024, the Early Warning Data Store (EWDS) registered 18,003 users, with over than 20,138 completed requests for EFAS and GloFAS datasets from 42 distinct countries. The total data retrieved amounted to approximately 3,029.72 TB, distributed across different products. The EWDS hosts EFAS and GloFAS datasets in GRIB and NetCDF formats, including historical data, forecasts, reforecasts, seasonal forecasts, and seasonal reforecasts. Auxiliary datasets support flood forecasting and hydrological analysis. For EFAS and GloFAS, these include datasets related to upstream areas, elevation, soil characteristics, and flood thresholds.
Accessing these datasets is simplified through a modern web interface and an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)-compliant API, ensuring compatibility with diverse user needs. Following FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable), the EWDS makes its data easy to find, access, and use across different platforms. Improvements to previous versions include flexible data download options and precise region-of-interest bounding box specifications. Supported by ECMWF's robust Meteorological Archival and Retrieval System (MARS) infrastructure, the EWDS ensures efficient data extraction and delivery, even for large-scale requests.
A key feature of the EWDS is its integration with Earthkit, ECMWF’s open-source Python project designed to simplify data workflows. Earthkit provides tools for data access, processing, analysis, and visualization, using libraries such as numpy, pandas, and matplotlib. Earthkit-Hydro, currently under development, will extend these capabilities, offering customized solutions for hydrological research and flood risk management. Additionally, there is comprehensive documentation and a user support and feedback service. This presentation will introduce the technological innovations of the EWDS, its user-focused capabilities, and its role in advancing global flood forecasting and risk management.

How to cite: Azhar, M., Prudhomme, C., Harrigan, S., Comyn-Platt, E., Morrison, O. M., Damasio da Costa, E., and Carton de Wiart, C.: Modernizing Flood Forecast Data Access with the CEMS Early Warning Data Store (EWDS), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21044, 2025.

EGU25-21408 | PICO | HS2.4.7

WHOS technologies: Connecting the dots for Advancing Global Hydrological Data Exchange and Harmonization 

Yirgalem Gebremichael, Washington Otieno, Enrico Boldrini, Johanna Korhonen, Dominique Berod, and Jawad Mones

The rise in climate and weather-related risks such as floods, droughts and landslides affect millions of people and their properties. Early Warning Systems (EWS) coupled with anticipatory actions, are instrumental in tackling these threats. Water, a central focus of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, is integral to climate action and influences many other SDGs, emphasizing the need for accurate water-related data. The United Nations launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative in November 2022 to ensure global EWS coverage. The quantity and quality hydrological data is critical for effective EWS and climate resilience. Moreover, the existence of different hydrological data from different sources, especially from non-traditional sources like machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), remain underutilized by National Hydrological Services (NHS) and other users.

Accessing and processing hydrological data is often challenging due to its heterogeneity, necessitating significant effort to harmonize and integrate disparate sources. These barriers hinder effective water management and issuing early warnings in time. The WMO State of Global Water Resources report 20231 highlights the urgency of addressing data access and availability issues. Easy access to relevant data relies on machine-to-machine communication, which remains challenging for many agencies.

To address this, the WMO Hydrological Observing System (WHOS) provides an interoperable framework for data sharing, access and visibility using relevant technologies. It provides functionalities such as data publishing, standardization, visualization and linking global data centres and research communities. By integrating data from diverse sources, including ML/AI, global datasets, satellite observations, and individual researchers, WHOS enhances data visibility, fosters co-operation, and demonstrates the value of hydrological data collection. WHOS interfaces the big data and non-traditional data sources with NHS data systems using standardization and brokering approaches and open-source tools.

WHOS employs tools and standards like OSCAR, WHOS DAB, WIS2Box, Hydroserver2.0, HydroShare, WDE, WMDS, WCMP2.0, OGC WaterML2.0, etc. OSCAR serves as WMO’s official metadata repository, enabling users to query and view observing stations. The Discovery and Access Broker (DAB) standardizes and harmonizes data, while WIS2Box simplifies data publication and download. HydroServer2.0 is an open-source data management tool accessible to all users including LDCs and SIDS. Standards such as WCMP2.0 and OGC WaterML2.0 support unified data discovery and access. Additionally, Topic Hierarchy for hydrology enables users to receive real-time data notifications by subscribing to a Message Queuing Protocol broker.

The WHOS portal serves as a one stop data portal connecting hydrological data from countries, regional and basin organizations, research communities and global centres (IGRAC, GRDC, etc). Advances in AI, ML, satellite technology, and citizen science are resulting in vast amounts of data and WHOS integrates these data to support researchers, modelers and practitioners in water resource management.

WHOS provides interoperable data to EW4All, Water Resources Management and HydroSOS systems by bridging gaps between research and operational applications. It supports transboundary cooperation, joint data monitoring and sharing, while demonstrating the return on investment in hydrological data collection. By harmonizing and sharing hydrological data, WHOS is instrumental in mitigating hydrological hazards and fostering global collaboration. 

1 https://library.wmo.int/records/item/69033-state-of-global-water-resources-report-2023

How to cite: Gebremichael, Y., Otieno, W., Boldrini, E., Korhonen, J., Berod, D., and Mones, J.: WHOS technologies: Connecting the dots for Advancing Global Hydrological Data Exchange and Harmonization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21408, 2025.

Floods are extreme events that cause huge loss of lives and properties. The flood events are expected to be more intensified and recurrent in the future due to climate change. It is required to develop robust flood mitigation strategies under climate change to mitigate the flood risk especially in the basins with limited data or ungauged basins. However, flood mitigation planning requires a huge amount of in-situ data of pre and post flood events which is not possible in data-scarce or ungauged river basins and almost inaccessible in the impassable and high-altitude complex terrain. The availability and accessibility of remote sensing data provides accurate and precise information regarding pre and post flood events in these regions.  The critical review of published literature reveals that the concept of model regionalization could be the scalability would provide the robust strategies for planning flood mitigation under climate change especially in these regions which involves transfer of knowledge from gauged to data-scarce or ungauged basins. However, the inefficiency of conventional process-based models in regionalization of model has motivated the researchers to think about the Artificial Intelligence (AI) data-driven approach. The present study combines remote sensing with AI approach to investigate the scope of regional flood susceptibility model development. The model development utilizes the remote sensing derived flood affecting parameters (or indicators) such as terrain, morphological, metrological. It has been first developed in data-rich basins and then transferred its knowledge to data-scarce or ungauged basins. The remote sensing derived historical flood records were used to generate the ground control points for training (70%) and testing (30%) of the model. To accomplish the objectives of enquiring the scope of regional flood susceptible model, the present study has chosen the two smaller sub-basins, one from the Krishna River basins, Maharashtra and the other from the Lower Ganga basin of Bihar. The chooses sub-basin from the Krishna River basins has been used for model development and the sub-basin from Lower Ganga basin of Bihar has been considered to investigate the scalability of the developed model for the regional AI-based model for flood susceptibility. The results of statistics F-1 score and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-Area Under Curve (AUC) have shown good performance of the model during training and testing. It also shows good performance during the model scalability check that advocates developed model for regional flood susceptibility. However, it suggested to apply fine tuning for future improvement of the model.  It has been concluded that the integration of remote sensing with AI-based could help in the development of good regional flood susceptible model which could be beneficial for policymakers in evolving enhanced strategies for mitigating futuristics floods especially in the data-scarce or ungauged basins.

Keywords: Regionalization, remote sensing, Artificial Intelligence, data-scarce or ungauged, flood mitigation planning.

How to cite: Ranjan, R. and Keshari, A. K.: Integrating Remote Sensing and Artificial Intelligence based Techniques for Investigating Regional Flood Susceptibility to Improve Flood Mitigation Planning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-794, 2025.

Flood risk assessment is critical for minimizing the economic loss resulting from flood damages, mitigating adverse socio-economic impacts and sustainable water resource management in the flood-prone regions. The flood is becoming a major world-wide concern due to recent events of disastrous floods in several countries, and it is gaining high significance because of climate change. The present study is aimed to present a methodological framework that combines hydro-economic evaluation with the hydrodynamic modelling for assessing flood risk and evolving structural and non-structural adaptative strategies for mitigating flood in riverine condition. This framework has been employed to the Burhi Gandak River basin in India, a region frequently affected by severe flooding leading to significant agriculture, infrastructural, and social disruptions.  Employing a hydro economic optimization framework, the research integrates hydrological modelling, economic evaluation, and optimization techniques to assess and manage flood risk. It also examines direct and indirect losses due to flooding and potential gains from mitigation strategies. The hydrological data, land use patterns, and socio-economic indicators were analysed to simulate flood scenarios. The approach combines flood inundation model with economic cost-benefit analysis, capturing both under varying rainfall intensities and catchment conditions. The results show that the optimization techniques can be applied to identify cost-effective strategies, including structural measures such as levees, and retention basins and non-structural measures such as early warning systems, land use policies for managing flood disaster effectively. Results. reveal that a balanced combination of structural and non-structural interventions can significantly reduce flood damage while optimizing resource allocation. This study provides a decision-support tool for policymakers to prioritize investments and implement adaptive strategies that enhance resilience against flooding in the Budhi Gandak basin. The integration of hydro economic evaluation not only improves the flood risk management but also contributes to the sustainable development of vulnerable regions.

Keywords: Flood risk, Flood mitigation, Optimization, Hydrodynamic modelling, Hydro economic framework.

How to cite: Babu, K. L. and Keshari, A. K.: Evolving Flood Risk Mitigation Strategies Using Hydrodynamic Modeling Linked with Hydroeconomic Optimization for Burhi Gandak River , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6067, 2025.

EGU25-11851 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Koyna River, India 

Amarsinh B. Landage and Ashok K. Keshari

The Koyna River basin, situated in the ecologically sensitive and biodiverse Western Ghats of India, exhibits heightened vulnerability to the dual pressures of climate variability and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. In this study, the hydrological dynamics of the basin were modeled using the advanced ArcSWAT tool, which is well-suited for simulating the influence of climatic and land use changes on streamflow. The analysis incorporated historical LULC data from 1996 and 2016 and climate change scenarios represented by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. The model was meticulously calibrated and validated using observed hydrological data spanning 1978 to 2016. Performance metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R²), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) indicated robust model with high reliability and accuracy. Future climate projections were developed using six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) which were refined through bias correction with the CMhyd tool to minimize discrepancies between simulated and observed climatic variables. The analysis integrates historical data from 1978 to 2016 and future projections derived from the CNRM-CM5 climate model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three timeframes: early (2025–2050), mid (2051–2075), and end century (2076–2100). Key parameters, including rainfall, temperature, and hydrological responses, were used to simulate streamflow variations and assess the basin's hydrological sensitivity to changing climatic conditions. Results reveal significant increases in streamflow under both RCP scenarios, with RCP8.5 indicating the most pronounced impacts by the end of the century. Monsoonal months (June–September) dominate streamflow contributions, with projections of heightened peak flows and prolonged discharge during these periods. Streamflow during the monsoon season is expected to nearly double under RCP8.5, increasing the risk of flooding. Monsoon rainfall, a pivotal driver of the basin's hydrology, accounts for over 85% of the annual runoff, with future projections pointing to intensified monsoonal discharges and an increase in extreme weather events. Conversely, drier months show marginal increases, signalling potential changes in seasonal water availability. The study also highlights the synergistic effect of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on hydrology. Analysis of LULC datasets from 1996 and 2016 indicates increased streamflow driven by urban expansion and reduced vegetation. These shifts amplify runoff, particularly under future precipitation increases. This evolving hydrological regime highlights the urgency for adaptive management strategies tailored to the region’s unique climatic and ecological context. Sustainable land use planning and proactive water resource management are essential to mitigate the risks associated with these changes. The insights from this research are vital for stakeholders, including policymakers, agronomists, and water resource managers, enabling them to formulate evidence-based strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation.

How to cite: Landage, A. B. and Keshari, A. K.: Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow of Koyna River, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11851, 2025.

EGU25-12482 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Leveraging SWOT Surface Data for River Bathymetry Estimation and Compound Flood Model Calibration in Data-Sparse Regions 

Xiaoli Su, Jeffrey Neal, Gurpreet Dass, Laurance Hawker, Christel Prudhomme, and Rory Bingham

Coastlines are increasingly vulnerable to the compound effects of high sea levels, intense rainfall, and extreme river discharge from tropical cyclones. Accurate compound flood modelling is critical for assessing flood risks and informing forecasts under current and future climate scenarios. However, in data-sparse regions like southeastern Africa, such modelling faces significant challenges due to the lack of river bathymetry data, which cannot be obtained remotely, and the limited or absent in situ gauge data required for model calibration. The recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission offers a transformative solution, as it can observe compound water surface profiles with centimetre-scale vertical accuracy. This study explores the potential of SWOT water elevations to estimate river bathymetry for the Pungwe and Buzi Rivers in Mozambique. This bathymetry data is then integrated with FABDEM for the simulation of compound flooding caused by Tropical Cyclone Idai near Beira, Mozambique, using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. This simulation incorporates coastal water levels from the ADCIRC model as downstream boundary conditions, river discharge data from the ERA5-driven ECLand model as upstream boundary conditions, and precipitation data from ERA5 to drive the LISFLOOD-FP model. A unique aspect of this study is the calibration of the LISFLOOD-FP model using SWOT surface water elevations. This integrated approach enables accurate compound flood simulation in data-sparse regions. By integrating diverse data sources, this research enhances understanding of flood risks from tropical cyclones and provides a framework for enhanced early warning systems and mitigation strategies in data-sparse coastal regions.

How to cite: Su, X., Neal, J., Dass, G., Hawker, L., Prudhomme, C., and Bingham, R.: Leveraging SWOT Surface Data for River Bathymetry Estimation and Compound Flood Model Calibration in Data-Sparse Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12482, 2025.

In streams and rivers, elevated level of microbial pollution is a major concern because it can impact public and animal health negatively, and has potential to transport infectious diseases and outbreaks from upstream to downstream. During storm and extreme precipitation events, flood water containing runoff, overflowing septic tanks,  untreated water, sediment particles, and particle attached pathogens and fecal coliforms, and consequential microbial contamination poses substantial risks to human health, and mitigating these risks requires understanding of pathogen fate and transport at catchment and subbasins scales. The use of catchment hydrology driven model can be particularly useful for predicting microbial pollution in ambient water during flood events. In this study, a FORTRAN based program was developed to determine the particle attached and water borne pathogen transport in river and streams, and the model was integrated with the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) tool to determine the microbial pathogen levels in rivers and streams to evaluate microbial water risks and microbial loads in water column and bed sediments during storm and flood events

How to cite: pandey, P.: Harnessing catchment hydrology and soil and water assessment tools for predicting microbial pollution in rivers and streams during flood events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14799, 2025.

Ernakulam district in Kerala, India, has experienced frequent flooding in recent years due to a combination of natural and human-induced factors. Heavy monsoon rainfall often overwhelms the district’s drainage systems, resulting in widespread flooding. The low-lying terrain, with many areas below sea level, further exacerbates the issue. The district’s coastal location exposes it to storm surges, tidal flooding, and sea-level rise. High sea levels and storm surges can physically block rivers and streams from discharging water into the ocean, compounding the flooding problem. Rapid urbanization and infrastructure development have significantly altered the district’s landscape. The construction of buildings, roads, and other structures has obstructed natural drainage channels, while deforestation and land-use changes, such as converting wetlands and paddy fields into residential or commercial areas, have diminished natural flood buffers. Additionally, poorly maintained or clogged drainage systems hinder efficient water flow. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, making the district even more vulnerable to future flooding.

The 2018 Kerala floods severely affected Ernakulam district, triggered by heavy rainfall, dam releases, and other factors. To analyze the flood inundation dynamics, a hydrodynamic simulation was conducted using the HEC-RAS software developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC). The study focused on a segment of the Periyar River Basin between Kalady and Mangalapuzha. The simulation incorporated the basin’s physical, hydrological, and operational attributes, such as inflow sources, tributaries, seasonal flow patterns influenced by monsoon rainfall, and the generation of a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for delineating the watershed and river network. Hydrodynamic models are based on the numerical integration of momentum and mass conservation equations, describing the physical processes in the basin (World Meteorological Organization, 2009). These models, such as HEC-RAS, are powerful tools for predicting water levels, current velocities, waves, and sediment transport, particularly in regions with sparse field measurements. Using the Saint-Venant equations, the HEC-RAS model accounts for factors like travel time between two points along the river, slope, cross-section, water flow, and dynamic velocity. The equations are solved using the four-point implicit box finite difference scheme to estimate discharge and water surface elevation at specific points. Observed rainfall and discharge data from peak flood events during the 2018 monsoon were used for the simulations. On July 16, 2018, the peak discharge at the Kalady station (upstream) was recorded at 5107.89 m³/s. The downstream station at Mangalapuzha, located approximately 22 km away, also observed significant discharge levels. A key finding from the flood simulation was the complete inundation of the Cochin International Airport (CIAL), situated on the outer banks of the river. The airport’s runway, aligned roughly parallel to the river, was submerged during the flooding. The recurrence of similar rainfall events, coupled with flood-induced river discharges, poses a persistent threat to critical infrastructure such as CIAL. Hence, the Government of Kerala must develop and implement effective flood mitigation strategies to minimize future risks and damages.

How to cite: Rajamanickam, M. G., Moothedan, A. J., and Kochukrishnan, M.: Hydrodynamic Simulation and Flood Inundation Analysis for Framing Robust Flood Management Strategies: Insights from the 2018 Kerala Floods , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15064, 2025.

EGU25-15123 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Advancing River Discharge Monitoring in Ungauged Basins Using Satellite Altimetry and SWOT Observations 

Pankaj R. Dhote, Ankit Agarwal, and Praveen K. Thakur

Monitoring inland water bodies is essential for understanding the hydrological cycle, environmental balance, and atmospheric processes within the Earth system. Effective water resource management, ecosystem sustainability, and insights into hydrological processes rely heavily on accurate river discharge monitoring. Traditionally, in-situ gauging stations have been used to measure river discharge, but the global network of these stations is limited due to high costs, accessibility issues, and political and economic challenges. Over recent decades, the number of in-situ stations has declined, leading to a growing reliance on remote sensing techniques for river discharge estimation. For the past 30 years, satellite radar altimetry has proven to be an invaluable tool for measuring water surface elevation. Efforts to convert altimetry-derived water levels into river discharge have employed various algorithms. The recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, on December 15, 2022, offers global measurements of water surface elevation, river width, and slope, providing significant advantages over previous missions, including enhanced spatial-temporal coverage of continental water bodies. This study evaluates hydraulic parameters derived from satellite altimetry over the past three decades, focusing on their application in estimating river discharge at ungauged locations. Data from radar and laser altimeters, including Jason-2/3, SARAL/AltiKa, Sentinel-3A/3B, ICESat-1, and ICESat-2, were used to analyze water level variations over the Mahanadi and Ganga Rivers. Altimetry-derived water levels were validated against in-situ observations at virtual stations, revealing improvements in data quality over time. Lidar-based altimeters, with their small footprint, proved particularly effective in capturing water levels in narrow river reaches. Early SWOT performance evaluations show promising results for Water Surface Slope (WSS) estimation, demonstrating moderate agreement with GNSS-based measurements. The strong KaRIn backscatter from river channels facilitates river width delineation through thresholding. Additionally, laser altimeters offer a promising approach for approximating river bathymetry efficiently and non-invasively. This study also harnesses ICESat-2 data to approximate wet bathymetry within the Ganga River. For discharge monitoring at ungauged locations, altimetry data from Jason-2, Jason-3, SARAL/AltiKa, Sentinel-3A, and Sentinel-3B were used to evaluate hydrodynamic model-based rating curves along the Mahanadi River. Using the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model, seven virtual stations were identified between Boudh and Mundali Barrage. These rating curves provide a cost-effective method for monitoring river discharge at ungauged sites. This work offers a comprehensive evaluation of altimetry and SWOT datasets, highlighting their accuracy, advantages, limitations, and implications for river discharge estimation.

How to cite: Dhote, P. R., Agarwal, A., and Thakur, P. K.: Advancing River Discharge Monitoring in Ungauged Basins Using Satellite Altimetry and SWOT Observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15123, 2025.

EGU25-15156 | PICO | HS2.4.8

Integrated Machine Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Lower Narmada River Basin, India 

Indra Mani Tripathi, Pramod Limbore, and Pranab Kumar Mohapatra

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing significant economic, social, and environmental impacts, particularly in developing countries like India. Settlements in flood-prone areas and a lack of information and awareness exacerbate flood risks. This study proposes an integrated framework combining machine learning and a hydrodynamic model (HECRAS) to map flood susceptibility in the lower Narmada River basin, India. For this purpose, the study evaluates and applies Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) to develop flood susceptibility maps. The framework incorporates flood hazard factors such as elevation, topographical wetness index, slope, distance from the river network, drainage density, rainfall, and landuse landcover (LULC) characteristics, along with vulnerability factors like population density, agricultural production, and road–river intersections. The model will be trained using flood depth data from the hydrodynamic model. Moreover, the HECRAS model will be validated with historical flood events using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) analysis from satellite imagery. The integrated approach is expected to achieve high predictive performance, with certain variables anticipated to be key contributors to flood risk. Results demonstrate the robustness of combining machine learning with hydrodynamic modeling for flood mapping, offering improved spatial and temporal accuracy. This study provides a reliable tool for policymakers and stakeholders to identify flood-prone areas, implement mitigation measures, and enhance flood disaster management strategies in the region.

How to cite: Tripathi, I. M., Limbore, P., and Mohapatra, P. K.: Integrated Machine Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Flood Susceptibility Mapping in the Lower Narmada River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15156, 2025.

EGU25-16231 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Multisensor monitoring and early warning of precipitation in mountain catchments prone to debris flow events  

Paolo Colosio, Chiara Marmaglio, Riccardo Bonomelli, and Roberto Ranzi and the Team of debris flow monitoring and control in the Central Italian Alps

Five major debris flow events occurred in the Central Italian Alps in 2012 (Val Rabbia), 2018 (Rio Rotiano), 2020 (Torrente Vallaro), 2021 (Torrente Blé) and 2022 (Torrenti Re di Niardo e Cobello) were monitored with a multi-sensor and multi-system approach to assess their probability of occurrence and the potential of early warning systems. The five events caused one victim and severe damages to a camping site, buildings, road and energy infrastructures, structural flood control systems  and the environment and the measured point rainfall intensity had a frequency between 1 over 10 to 200 years, with the 2022 event being an exceptional outlier. Monitoring systems included two C-band radars, raingauges, IR and MW satellite sensors, water level sensors, video cameras with geophysical sensors (geophones and infrasound). Operational results of MOLOCH, a non-hydrostatic high-resolution  0.0113 degrees (1.25 km) meteorological model were analysed to assess the predictability of the events. The conducted analyses indicate the reliability of radar reflectivity, processed by considering also the delay in the atmosphere to ground rainfall induced by the falling velocity of raindrops, in capturing the timing and the spatial pattern of rainfall, although the Z(R) transformation still needs event-based or event-type calibration. Satellite images processed through the MASHA algorithm were effective in the synoptic-scale event of 2018 but still not always for some convective events.  The same happens for the MOLOCH meteorological models. The results, although promising, indicate that  the predictability of such debris flow events in mountain areas, on average, is still problematic and merging the different sources of information is needed for an effective early warning.

How to cite: Colosio, P., Marmaglio, C., Bonomelli, R., and Ranzi, R. and the Team of debris flow monitoring and control in the Central Italian Alps: Multisensor monitoring and early warning of precipitation in mountain catchments prone to debris flow events , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16231, 2025.

EGU25-16497 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Flood Inundation Management in the Narmada Basin: An AIML Application for the Upstream Area of Sardar Sarovar Dam 

Sunil Kumar, Aamer Majid Bhat, and Pranab Kumar Mohapatra

Recurrent flooding poses a significant threat to various sub-catchments of the Narmada River Basin, one of India's major river systems. This study focuses on the flood-prone sub-catchment area upstream of the Sardar Sarovar Dam, where impacts are particularly severe on tribal communities, forests, and the newly formed reservoir ecosystem. To enhance flood risk management, this research investigates the application of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AIML) for high-resolution flood inundation mapping. The primary objective is to generate high-resolution flood inundation maps that surpass hydrological modelling in accuracy and spatial detail, enabling precise identification of vulnerable areas within the sub-catchment. A comprehensive dataset, including historical rainfall data (1990-2024) from IMD gridded data and local rain gauges, river discharge records from various gauging stations and a 12.5m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is used to train and validate AIML models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Random Forests (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN)). Beyond flood inundation, the models were employed to simulate the effects of various flood control measures, including optimized reservoir operation, embankment construction, and afforestation, to inform optimal implementation strategies. The results are expected to demonstrate the superior performance of AIML in capturing and predicting future flood inundations in the region. Based on error calculation, the performance of combined models is expected to be better than that of individual models. The findings will help develop targeted early warning systems, improved land-use planning, and evidence-based decision-making for sustainable flood risk management in the Narmada Basin and contribute to the broader application of AI for disaster risk reduction globally.

How to cite: Kumar, S., Bhat, A. M., and Mohapatra, P. K.: Flood Inundation Management in the Narmada Basin: An AIML Application for the Upstream Area of Sardar Sarovar Dam, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16497, 2025.

EGU25-17159 | PICO | HS2.4.8

Assessment of Geo-hazards and Mitigation Measures at Palchan Station, Manali (Himachal Pradesh) 

Dr. Amod kumar, Mahendra Kumar Arya, Rakesh Kumar, and Dr. Varunendra Dutta Mishra

Palchan station is located near Manali in the Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh (India) at right bank of river Beas and Pagal Nallah along NH-3 at an altitude of 2400 meters (approx.), whereas village Palchan is located towards left bank. In the vicinity of this station, there are threats of avalanches in winters and flash floods during rainy season. The effect of avalanche and flood are studied for the safety measures of the Palchan station.

Three vulnerable points of the Pagal Nallah from where flood may likely to enter into the settlement area during peak flood discharge are considered for the further analysis. In addition to the field visit, optical remote sensing products of this area were also analysed to understand the topography of the terrain, characteristics of the avalanche sites and spreading of debris deposition. The satellite imageries are also used to study the extreme events.

Avalanche flow simulation software developed by DGRE is used to study the threat of avalanche hazard and it was found that the station is not located in the trajectory of avalanche flow path. To estimate the peak flood discharge of Pagal Nallah, different methodologies i.e. based on local flood level indication using Manning’s equation, rational method, Dicken’s formula and Inglis formula were used. The maximum discharge obtained from observed data is 1021 cumecs. The protection structure along the river embankment proposed at three locations each having dimensions 25 m long and 3 m high. These structures are proposed consisting of reinforced stone pitching having welded mesh made up of 10 mm diameter TMT bars at spacing of 35-50 cm C/C. Additionally, a synthetic rubber mat (25 mm thick) with accessories to be placed on top of water side vertical face of protection wall to impart abrasion resistance and provide high impact strength against flowing boulders of varying size from 50 cm to 150 cm.

 

 

How to cite: kumar, Dr. A., Arya, M. K., Kumar, R., and Mishra, Dr. V. D.: Assessment of Geo-hazards and Mitigation Measures at Palchan Station, Manali (Himachal Pradesh), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17159, 2025.

EGU25-19880 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Monitoring, Modeling and Management of Glacial Lakes of Teesta Basin, India.  

Amit Bhadula, Rajeev Ranjan Prasad, and Rajat Gupta

Natural phenomena like rainfall, coupled with associated activities, have often turned calamities into disasters. In a country like India, endowed with densely populated areas and diverse geographical variations, unfortunate incidents like GLOFs, flash floods, and landslides have frequently proven catastrophically disastrous for the population, causing irreparable loss to life and property. While procedures for disaster management in the aftermath of such incidents exist, there is a pressing need to augment concrete methodologies for the prediction, monitoring, and management of GLOFs, especially concerning hydropower projects.

Interestingly, the Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.1°C since 1850 and is expected to increase further by 1.5°C within a few decades (IPCC, 2021). This rise will intensify the water cycle and accelerate climate change.

The recent flash floods on October 3–4, 2023, have emphasized the necessity for further studies on glacial lakes and their risk assessment. Most of these lakes are located in remote areas at altitudes of around 4,500 to 5,000 meters, making physical assessment a challenging task. To address this, NHPC has initiated a study for monitoring lakes across eight basins in close collaboration with National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. This study focuses on more than 650 glacial lakes in the Teesta Basin, which are situated within the catchments of NHPC’s four hydropower projects: Rangit, Teesta-V, TLDP-III, and TLDP-IV.

This study aims to integrate Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and Landsat 7 and 8 data to measure changes in the areas of glacial lakes over the past 10 years. The 650 lakes will be classified based on risk assessment parameters, including proximity to hydro-projects and settlements, rate of area change, size of the lake, and type of lake. Additionally, subsidence mapping will be incorporated into the classification model for enhanced accuracy.

The Google Earth Engine platform is being utilized to measure changes in lake areas, while Sentinel-1 data is used for time-series analysis of subsidence mapping around the lakes. The output of this study will enable the classification of lakes into five risk categories, which will serve as an input for developing an Early Warning System in later stages.

How to cite: Bhadula, A., Ranjan Prasad, R., and Gupta, R.: Monitoring, Modeling and Management of Glacial Lakes of Teesta Basin, India. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19880, 2025.

The Assi River, once a vital cultural and ecological lifeline in the middle Ganga plain, has undergone significant degradation due to siltation, urban encroachment and channel disappearance. Historically an alluvial rivulet originating near Durvasha Rishi Ashram in Allahabad, took the shape of River Assi and after traversing around 120 km merges with the Ganga in Varanasi city. Currently, only the last 8 km retain any semblance of a river, with more than 90% of the upstream channel buried under silt. The degradation of River Assi catchment has led to the emergence of a new stream of the Morwa River, which drains the flows from the Assi's buried sections and join to River Varuna as a tributary. Using Landsat 5 imagery, SRTM DEM, NDVSI, and PCA of NDVI, this study identified the paleochannels of River Assi and reconstructed the its historical course. Additionally, hydrological modelling was done using Arc SWAT to delineate the sub-basins.

The altered hydrological dynamics of the River Assi have cascading impacts on downstream ecosystems, including the Varuna River basin, which has experienced increased flooding frequency and severity. Due to the disruption of natural drainage networks in River Assi catchment, In 2022, over 10,000 households were affected by flooding in the Varuna basin. Flood mapping using Sentinel-1 SAR data and Google Earth Engine (GEE) revealed that altered flow regimes in River Assi exacerbate water accumulation in River Varuna during monsoons. The study highlights the importance of restoring paleochannels to mitigate flooding and improved hydrological stability. The integration of high-resolution DEMs, land use data, and GEE tools provides a cost-effective approach in flood risk management and underscores the necessity of addressing upstream river concerns to safeguard flood-prone downstream basins.

How to cite: Singh, P. K., Mishra, A., and Ohri, A.: Impact of degradation of River Assi Catchment on Flood Dynamics of Varuna Basin in the Middle Ganga Plain (India), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20068, 2025.

EGU25-21407 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Predicting Flood Dynamics in the Narmada Basin: Integrating LULC Projections with Hydrodynamic Modelling 

Kapil Rathod, Bhanu Parmar, Pranab Kumar Mohapatra, and Dhruvesh Patel

Flood risks in river basins are increasingly exacerbated by rapid Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes driven by urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural expansion. The Narmada basin, particularly its lower reaches, serves as a critical case study due to its hydrological importance, diverse landscapes, and susceptibility to monsoonal flooding. This study explores the interplay between evolving LULC patterns and flood dynamics in the lower Narmada basin through advanced machine learning and hydrological modelling techniques. The analysis starts by classifying historical and current LULC patterns using remote sensing data from Landsat and Sentinel-2, leveraging Support Vector Machine algorithms for accurate mapping. Future LULC scenarios are predicted using a Cellular Automata-Markov Chain model under various development trajectories. Rainfall data, combined with projected LULC maps, is processed through HEC-HMS to simulate rainfall-runoff relationships and estimate discharge. These discharge values are then used as inputs in HEC-RAS for detailed flood simulations, providing insights into flood extents and inundation depths under extreme rainfall events. Additionally, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are employed to analyse and predict flood-prone areas by understanding the complex relationships between LULC changes, rainfall, and runoff. Preliminary findings reveal significant urban expansion and vegetation loss, intensifying flood risks in downstream regions, particularly near Bharuch city. Simulated inundation maps indicate substantial increases in flood extents in urbanized zones, emphasizing the need for adaptive land management strategies and optimized barrage operations. By combining AI-driven methodologies, hydrological modelling (HEC-HMS), and hydrodynamic simulations (HEC-RAS), this study offers a comprehensive framework for addressing flood risks in rapidly transforming landscapes. The results provide actionable recommendations for urban planning, flood mitigation policies, and sustainable water resource management in the Narmada basin.

How to cite: Rathod, K., Parmar, B., Mohapatra, P. K., and Patel, D.: Predicting Flood Dynamics in the Narmada Basin: Integrating LULC Projections with Hydrodynamic Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21407, 2025.

EGU25-21622 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Unravelling artificial intelligence in resources planning and flood disaster mitigation 

Abhinav Kaushal Keshari and Tushar Srivastava

Flood disaster has become an increasingly complex global challenge as it poses a big threat to people’s life, infrastructure, economic development and several industrial activities. It necessitates the development of innovative solutions for the improved understanding of flood events as it adversely impacts human and their livelihood, infrastructure and business economies in the flood prone areas. AI and machine learning techniques have huge potential which can be harnessed to improve the understanding of growing frequency, extent, severity, and complexity of flood events in different regions. The present study delves into the burgeoning domain of AI techniques such as Generative AI, Explainable AI, and machine learning algorithms for their use through cloud computing in providing greater insights into the voluminous flood related meta data streaming from diverse multiple sources for developing decision-making tools for flood warning, flood preparedness, and flood resilience infrastructure information systems. The study shows that there is a significant increase in the use of these techniques in addressing a wide range of problems that concern the public at large, such as flood, health, real state, livelihood, etc. Based on the findings of rigorous literature review and case studies, the present study also identifies future key research directions that can serve as a guideline for unravelling the power of AI and machine learning algorithms in prediction, interpretation, and deciphering intricate relationships among variables, determinants and consequences associated with flood disaster and resources planning and management for mitigating the adverse consequences of the flood. The study would be useful to various stakeholders in making informed decisions through AI powered algorithms and tools for evolving effective, systematic and trustworthy management strategies for resources planning and mitigating flood disaster.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Machine learning, Cloud computing, Flood disaster, Resources planning

How to cite: Keshari, A. K. and Srivastava, T.: Unravelling artificial intelligence in resources planning and flood disaster mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21622, 2025.

EGU25-21660 | ECS | PICO | HS2.4.8

Combining Unconventional Remote Sensing Techniques with Hydrological Variables to Assess the Impact of Land Use and Climate Variability in River Catchment

Vijeta Singh, Sumant Kumar, Arpan Sherring, Shakti Suryavanshi, and Vinod Kumar

HS2.5 – Global and (sub)continental hydrology

EGU25-1325 | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Global-scale changes in the area of atoll islands 

luyao niu

Global warming has resulted in a continuous rise in sea levels, posing significant challenges to coastal and island ecosystems. While atoll islands have largely avoided widespread erosion in recent decades, the majority of existing studies has concentrated on atolls within the Pacific and Indian Oceans, leaving the broader study of global islands insufficiently addressed. Notably, the melting of glaciers and snow in boreal regions is a major contributor to sea level rise, heightening erosion risks for islands in northern latitudes.

To bridge this research gap, the study adopted a comprehensive approach by encompassing islands across all five climatic zones. Its primary objective is to assess the Changes in morphology and ecological structure and of small and medium-sized islands over the past 40 years. Leveraging data from Landsat 5, 7, 8 and 9 satellites, the study employed image normalization techniques to enhance the identification of smaller islands and applied support vector machines (SVM) to classify normalized difference spectral vector (NDSV) images. This methodology enabled the detailed analysis of shifts in area, shape and ecological community composition, while also investigating the underlying factors driving these changes.

Recognizing the diverse climatic dynamics across temperate zones, the study also incorporated a region- and size-specific evaluation framework to improve the accuracy of erosion pattern predictions for atoll islands. The findings reveal that islands with larger populations and close to the mainland demonstrate greater resilience to erosion, largely due to the benefits associated with artificial reinforcement. The study highlights that land area changes are predominantly influenced by human activities, particularly in the Maldives and the South China Sea. Furthermore, alterations in shallow reef ecosystems emerge as a critical driver of island size variability.

Finally, the research explored the relationship between island size and erosion, emphasizing the significant proportion of smaller islands among those experiencing changes in area and shape. These insights provide a nuanced understanding of the interplay between anthropogenic and ecological factors shaping island dynamics in the context of rising sea levels.

How to cite: niu, L.: Global-scale changes in the area of atoll islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1325, 2025.

EGU25-2384 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

One-third of global basins facing flashier floods in a warming climate 

Fengjia Zhou, Shuo Wang, Louise Slater, Peirong Lin, Amir AghaKouchak, Hanbo Yang, and Sijie Tang

Flash floods present significant challenges for monitoring and forecasting due to their rapid onset. While extreme rainfall events, a primary driver of flooding, are becoming both more intense and frequent, yet there remains no consensus on whether floods will exhibit similar trends in a warming climate. Here we assess flash flood risk development over four decades across 741 basins globally using the flashiness index. Our findings reveal a shift towards flashier floods in over one-third of basins, predominantly concentrated in the mid-northern latitudes. We identify basins characterized by rising flood peaks and those marked by shorter onset times. By examining these types, we attribute the changes in basins with increasing flood peaks to increased extreme rainfall, whereas the causes in basins with shortening onset times are more complex involving multiple drivers. Regions with rising flash flood magnitudes are likely to require flood defense infrastructure capable of withstanding more severe flood events, while regions with shortening onset times may face challenges in implementing short-term early warning systems. By identifying regions prone to flash floods and highlighting global hotspots, the study offers valuable insights for policymakers to design effective flood management strategies. These findings underscore the urgency of implementing region-specific strategies to adapt to flashier floods in a warmer future.

How to cite: Zhou, F., Wang, S., Slater, L., Lin, P., AghaKouchak, A., Yang, H., and Tang, S.: One-third of global basins facing flashier floods in a warming climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2384, 2025.

EGU25-2474 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Spatio-temporal characteristics of streamflow drought change over Europe 

Joren Janzing, Niko Wanders, and Manuela I. Brunner

Europe was plagued by severe drought events over the first decades of the 21st century, most notably in the years 2003, 2015, and 2018. Meteorological drought conditions affected large parts of the continent, which in turn led to widespread streamflow deficits that affected many rivers simultaneously. Understanding such spatio-temporal patterns of streamflow droughts is important for drought relief, but few studies have investigated in detail how such spatio-temporal drought characteristics change in space and time. In this study, we set up the PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological model over Europe at a hyper-resolution of 30 arcsec (approx. 1km) and ran it for the period 1980-2019. We use the resulting model simulations to analyse how spatio-temporal characteristics of streamflow droughts vary between different river basins in Europe. Furthermore, we apply trend analyses to understand how such spatial characteristics of droughts change over time. Our preliminary results suggest distinct patterns in spatio-temporal characteristics of streamflow droughts, which vary over the continent and are affected by changing hydro-meteorological conditions. 

How to cite: Janzing, J., Wanders, N., and Brunner, M. I.: Spatio-temporal characteristics of streamflow drought change over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2474, 2025.

EGU25-2716 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Evaporation dynamics from flowing water surfaces 

Lintong Hou, Milad Aminzadeh, Dani Or, Justus Patzke, Peter Fröhle, and Nima Shokri

In contrast to the wealth of information on evaporation dynamics from placid water surfaces such as lakes and reservoirs, estimating water evaporation from turbulent surfaces of streams remains a challenge. Evidence suggests a considerable change in evaporation from flowing surfaces relative to placid surfaces with local modifiers such as chemical, physical and biological processes that alter the energy budget and water temperature. While the studies on evaporation from wavy surfaces of oceans offer valuable insights, significant differences in hydrodynamics and heat exchange processes distinguish evaporation in oceans from that in rivers. Here we experimentally investigate how water flow characteristics (velocity and turbulence) and atmospheric boundary conditions (wind and radiation) affect evaporation rates and temperature dynamics in a flume. A closed flume (7.6 m length, 0.31 m width, and 0.5 m depth) is used to impose different boundary conditions over a test section of the flume (length of 1.5 m) while other parts of the flume are covered to reduce evaporative losses. Our preliminary findings show significant enhancement in evaporation rates, reaching 2-5 times that of placid water surfaces, driven by increases in surface velocity and turbulence characteristics. Furthermore, we observe that radiative and aerodynamic factors contribute nonlinearly to evaporation enhancement and affect temperature distribution in the water body. The study offers novel insights into evaporation from wavy and turbulent flowing water surfaces for better prediction of evaporation from riverine networks across flow regimes and climatic conditions. 

How to cite: Hou, L., Aminzadeh, M., Or, D., Patzke, J., Fröhle, P., and Shokri, N.: Evaporation dynamics from flowing water surfaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2716, 2025.

EGU25-2799 | Orals | HS2.5.1

Limited contribution of recent elevated CO2 to global streamflow changes 

Yongqiang Zhang and Haoshan Wei

Global streamflow, a critical resource for ecosystems, agriculture, and human activities, is influenced by various factors, including rising atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂). Through direct regulation of vegetation physiology and structure, eCO₂ can either increase or decrease streamflow. However, despite a 21% rise in CO₂ over the past 40 years, its impact on streamflow remains unclear and subject to ongoing debate. This study evaluates the effects of eCO₂ on global streamflow from 1981 to 2020, focusing on its direct regulation of vegetation. Using a dataset of 1,116 unimpacted catchments, we find that precipitation is the dominant driver of streamflow changes, accounting for over 70% of observed variability. In contrast, eCO₂ exhibits a negligible influence, with its median contribution approaching zero across catchments. At the global scale, attribution analyses conducted via the regularized optimal fingerprinting method for 14 global ecological model simulations confirm that climate change predominantly explains streamflow trends. No significant evidence supports attributing these changes to eCO₂ or land-use change. Observation-constrained models further enhance the robustness of these findings by reducing uncertainties inherent in global ecological models. These results highlight the limited role of vegetation responses to eCO₂ in driving global streamflow changes, underscoring the primacy of climate variability. This improved understanding of hydrological responses to rising CO₂ is vital for refining future water resource management and adaptation strategies under changing climatic conditions.

How to cite: Zhang, Y. and Wei, H.: Limited contribution of recent elevated CO2 to global streamflow changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2799, 2025.

Accurate quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for a better understanding of hydrological processes and the interactions between hydrological, climatic, and vegetation systems. Existing global ET products have significant differences in describing regional ET and its trends in China. Limited by the short coverage period of observational data such as runoff, previous studies have rarely evaluated the performance of ET products in reproducing long-term ET and its trends. In addition, studies evaluating ET products based on the water balance method often use single input data, which increases the uncertainty of the water balance method to a certain extent.  In order to better understand the applicability of commonly used global land surface ET products in China's watersheds, we evaluated the performance of eight ET products (i.e., 6 widely used global ET products: ERA5L, GLDAS, MODIS, FLUXCOM, GLEAM, PMLV2, and 1 newly released ET product with two different resolution datasets: CAMELE) in simulating monthly and annual ET and their ability to describe long-term trends in ET, using the multi-source input water balance method in 133 small basins in China. The results show that all products overestimate basin ET, whether on monthly or annual scale, with GLEAM and  PMLV2 performing best with an RMSE of less than 50mm/month and the overall deviation less than 50% in most basins, followed by MODIS, and CAMELE's two resolution products having the most overall overestimation. Remote sensing-based evapotranspiration products GLEAM, PMLV2, and MODIS generally have better accuracy, followed by GLDAS. All products have greater uncertainty mainly in the small basins of the Southeastern Rivers and Pearl River Basin with the highest RMSE, while perform better in the upper source areas of the Yangtze River Basin, the Yellow River Basin, the Hai River Basin and the Songliao Basin. The average ET over all basins shows an increasing trend which is 1.49mm/year2 from 1980 to 2016 and 1.08mm/year2 from 1980 to 2014. All four long-series ET products (i.e., ERA5L, GLDAS, GLEAM, CAMELE-0.25°) capture this trend, but GLEAM and GLDAS overestimate the trend of ET, and the other products underestimate the corresponding trend. ET-WB mainly experiences two stages of change, gradually decreasing from 1980 to 2001, and then begin to rise during 2002-2016. All long-series products capture this change process. All products underestimate the increasing trend of ET in most basins and cannot describe the spatial distribution of ET trend well. The interannual variation of ET-WB has greater fluctuations, and all products underestimate the Cv of ET-WB. In contrast, PMLV2 performs best, followed by GLDAS, GELAM, and MODIS, while FLUXCOM performs worst, followed by CAMELE-0.25°, ERA5L, and CAMELE-0.1°. This latest assessment helps to understand the status and development of current land surface ET datasets and provides guidance for selecting appropriate ET products for use in specific regions within China and its interior.

How to cite: Fu, X. and Yang, H.: Assessments of long-term means and trends of eight evapotranspiration products over China based on water balance method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3012, 2025.

EGU25-4506 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

A Remote Sensing-Based Daily Stream Water Temperature Model for Gridded, High-Resolution Predictions at Subcontinental Scales 

Daniel Philippus, Claudia R. Corona, and Terri S. Hogue

Stream water temperature (SWT) is fundamental to studies in water quality and ecology, with effects ranging from drinking water treatment chemistry to lotic species metabolism.  Assessment of current and future SWT at large scales requires data at high spatial and temporal resolution, which can be supported by modeled datasets at considerably higher spatial resolution and extent than is feasible with monitoring networks.  While several models support moderate- to high-resolution SWT estimation and prediction for unmonitored streams over large domains and global SWT modeling has been conducted at 10 km/daily resolution, no high-resolution (1 km/daily) dataset exists for the contiguous United States (CONUS) or other subcontinental domains. In addition, current high-resolution models are not optimized for gridded processing over large regions and are thus computationally impractical for high-density model runs over subcontinental domains.  We address this limitation by enhancing an existing remote-sensing, ungauged, high-resolution SWT model, TempEst 2 (“temperature estimation, version 2”), to support computationally efficient analyses, including data retrieval and processing, over large blocks of input pixels. TempEst 2 is particularly suited to this optimization because the model only uses data near the point of interest, allowing a direct mapping from input to output grids without the need to process entire watersheds. Using the optimized model TempEst 2-FAST (“fast analysis in space and time”), we present progress on a 1 km/daily resolution SWT dataset over the CONUS (~8 million km2).

TempEst 2 has a median CONUS validation RMSE of 2.0 C, NSE of 0.91, and bias of 0.10%, within the typical performance range of regional to global ungauged daily SWT models (RMSE ~ 1.8-3.2 C).  While TempEst 2 is trained on the United States Geological Survey SWT gauge network, it uses globally-available satellite-based or gridded data (e.g., land surface temperature, humidity) for prediction, supporting straightforward application outside the CONUS given a suitable local gauge network for training and validation. TempEst 2 is also relatively robust to spatial gaps in gauge network coverage and to overall sparse gauge networks, maintaining reasonable accuracy (approximately a 20% performance penalty) with just 100 gauges across the CONUS (~13 per million km2). Within the CONUS, the model shows consistent performance across a range of geographic and climate conditions, though there is some performance penalty in extrapolating to high-elevation (> 3000 m) sites (a small proportion of streams).  Building on that robust performance and efficient data generation, the CONUS-wide gridded dataset we are developing provides readily-available data for large-domain analyses at far higher resolution than previously possible, with millions of prediction points over ~9,000 days (2001-2024). The availability of high-resolution SWT estimates over the CONUS enables rapid assessment of stream thermal conditions that would otherwise require extensive local fieldwork or modeling efforts. We anticipate that the dataset could be particularly useful for detailed assessments of ecological conditions or regulatory compliance over large regions.

How to cite: Philippus, D., Corona, C. R., and Hogue, T. S.: A Remote Sensing-Based Daily Stream Water Temperature Model for Gridded, High-Resolution Predictions at Subcontinental Scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4506, 2025.

Streamflow intermittence, i.e. the days without streamflow, was predicted with a high spatial resolution for the whole of Europe by downscaling the output of a global hydrological modeling and using the deriving monthly time series for computing predictors, together with other predictors, in a random forest model that simulates the number of no-flow days (Döll et al. 2024(. Development of the data-driven random forest model required a large amount of daily streamflow observations. Now, the challenge is to learn from this modeling work for simulating streamflow intermittence on continents with fewer daily streamflow observations such as South America. What is the quality of simulated streamflow intermittence in South America if we apply the random forest model trained for Europe for South America, i.e. running the model with predictors specific to South America?

We focused on three main aspects: 1) evaluating the similarity of predictor values in the training continent Europe and the application continent South America, 2) conducting sensitivity analysis for the number of observations and 3) utilizing different explainable AI methods. For the first point, we performed two analyses: 1) examining the probability distribution function of 23 predictors across both continents and 2) applying the area of applicability (AOA) analysis for the period 1981-2019. The AOA indicates where the predictor values in South America fall within the range of values that were used to develop the RF model trained on European data. This analysis helps identify areas where the model's predictions are likely to be most reliable, based on the similarity of environmental conditions to those in the training data.

We also analyzed the sensitivity of simulated streamflow intermittence to the number of gauge-months with observed no-flow days by 1) building several different models, each trained on a randomly selected subset of European gauging stations (i.e., 50% of the total), including all monthly values for these gauging stations and 2) evaluating the performance of these models on the remaining gauging stations not used in training and 3) comparing the resulting continent-wide streamflow intermittence patterns across Europe to assess consistency and variability in predictions. Finally, we leveraged various explainable AI methods to analyze the influence of each predictor on the results of the RF model. This analysis helps identify potential biases and understand how models perform across different geographical contexts. Without explainable AI, there is a risk of failing to meet the specific needs of different regions, undermining the model’s effectiveness and reliability when applied across diverse geographical areas.

How to cite: Abbasi, M. and Döll, P.: Cross-continental application of a random forest model for streamflow intermittence from data-rich to data-poor regions  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5646, 2025.

EGU25-7161 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

1-D Richards equation or infiltration capacity approaches? A comparative assessment in mesoscale hydrologic modelling across 201 German basins 

Afid Kholis, Thomas Kalbacher, Friedrich Boeing, Matthias Cuntz, and Luis Samaniego

Soil moisture (SM) infiltration is crucial in hydrological modeling, as it significantly influences runoff, groundwater recharge, and evapotranspiration. This study compares two widely used approaches for modeling SM infiltration in mesoscale hydrology: the one-dimensional Richards equation (1-D RE), which controls vertical flux exchange but is complex and nonlinear, and the infiltration capacity (IC) scheme, which is simpler and only allows downward movement of SM. The challenge in implementing the RE lies in determining effective parameters at the targeted resolution (typically several hundred to thousands of meters) and ensuring computational efficiency. This is because the RE is inherently nonlinear and was developed for much finer scales than those used in typical simulations. As a result, RE-based land surface models (LSMs) have often underperformed compared to those using the IC scheme.

To address this challenge, an experiment was conducted using the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) equipped with Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) to parameterize both the RE and IC approaches, keeping everything else equal (Kholis et al. 2024). To improve computational efficiency, Ross’s fast numerical solution was employed, utilizing the Kirchhoff transform to linearize the RE via matric flux potential (MFP). The RE parameterization involved the use of three distinct pedo-transfer functions (PTFs): Cosby for mHM-RE1, Campbell for mHM-RE2, and Rawls & Brakensiek for mHM-RE3. These model parameters were estimated across randomly selected basins in Germany and subsequently validated with streamflow data across 201 basins at multiple resolutions, as well as with soil moisture observations from 46 sites (0-25 cm depth) and 42 sites (25–60 cm and 0–60 cm depths). 

The results demonstrate that mHM-IC and all mHM-RE variants perform comparably well in predicting streamflow. The application of MPR facilitates the transferability of PTF parameters across different scales and areas. Due to its two-way flow mechanism, the mHM-RE variants show better predictability of SM, especially in deeper soil layers. However, for large catchment areas, these variants can be up to six times slower than that with IC. Although the IC approach can sometimes lead to saturation in deeper soil layers, it still provides good predictability for SM anomalies. Importantly, the choice of PTF is critical for the performance of RE models, as parameterization discrepancies, such as overestimated saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and porosity (θs) in mHM-RE2, can lead to overpredicted SM values, even when streamflow simulations are accurate. This study highlights the potential of mHM-RE for generating transferable parameters and achieving reliable streamflow and SM simulations, provided that appropriate PTFs are carefully selected to minimize parameterization errors. We conclude that the poor performance of RE-based land surface models with respect to streamflow prediction is likely due to deficient parameterization or the use of an inefficient RE solver. 

References:

Kholis, A. N., Kalbacher, T., Rakovec, O., Boeing, F., Cuntz, M., & Samaniego, L. E. (2024). Evaluating Richards equation and infiltration capacity approaches in mesoscale hydrologic modelling. Authorea Preprints. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173532490.04454195/v1

How to cite: Kholis, A., Kalbacher, T., Boeing, F., Cuntz, M., and Samaniego, L.: 1-D Richards equation or infiltration capacity approaches? A comparative assessment in mesoscale hydrologic modelling across 201 German basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7161, 2025.

EGU25-7228 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Towards a synthesis of perceptual models of dominant hydrologic processes across North America 

Wouter Knoben, Ying Fan, Irene Garousi-Nejad, Julia Masterman, Hilary McMillan, Jordan Read, Katie van Werkhoven, and Martyn Clark

There is increasing recognition that providing robust assessments of future water resource availability and water-related risks requires the use of the right models in the right places. Traditionally, selecting or developing an appropriate model for a given basin was possible based on thorough understanding of the dominant hydrologic processes in the basin under consideration. On national, continental, and global scales however, the commonly used method so far has been a “one model fits all” approach. This is in part due to the lack of a comprehensive overview of how dominant hydrologic processes vary across large geographical domains.

Here we introduce a community-driven synthesis effort to address this large-scale hydrologic challenge, focusing on North America as a test case. Over the past half year, we have convened multiple virtual workshops and organized several in-person opportunities to bring together water science experts working in various regions across the continent. The workshops covered five key parts of the continent (the densely populated East and West coasts, the center region used for agriculture, the northern regions that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and the tropical islands). Invited speakers shared their knowledge, experience, and expertise around the dominant hydrologic processes and existing modeling efforts in these regions. These were followed by structured discussion among the workshop attendees, as well as during dedicated further interactions later, to divide the continent into a manageable number of hydrologic landscapes and to define representative perceptual models of hydrologic behavior for the various parts of each larger region. Here we present an overview of these resulting perceptual models and invite further discussion. Ultimately, these perceptual models can be mapped onto computational models, modules and individual equations, and so support a theory-based large-scale effort to develop the most appropriate hydrologic model for any location in the wider North American domain. The methodology used is not unique to the North American context and similar approaches could be used elsewhere where large-scale synthesis of hydrologic process understanding is desired.

 

How to cite: Knoben, W., Fan, Y., Garousi-Nejad, I., Masterman, J., McMillan, H., Read, J., van Werkhoven, K., and Clark, M.: Towards a synthesis of perceptual models of dominant hydrologic processes across North America, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7228, 2025.

EGU25-8642 | Orals | HS2.5.1

Improving hydrological modelling and prediction at the European and Global scale 

Peter Salamon and the team of co-authors

Hydrological models are crucial for evaluating the water cycle, offering decision makers vital insights into floods, droughts, and water resource management, while enabling scenario analysis under different natural and anthropogenic conditions. One example is the open-source hydrological model OS-LISFLOOD that is used to generate flood forecasts and drought indicators for the European and Global Flood Awareness Systems (EFAS & GloFAS) as well as the European and Global Drought Observatories (EDO & GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).

OS-LISFLOOD is a distributed, physically based rainfall-runoff model. Being used in an operational setting, the hydrological model and its European and global model domain set-up benefit from regular upgrades. In its current operational version, the global model set-up (GloFAS v4.x) uses a spatial resolution of 3 arcminutes (~5.4 km) and a daily time step, whereas the European model set-up (EFAS v5.x) uses a spatial resolution of 1 arcminute (~1.8 km) and a 6-hourly time step. Both set-ups are used to provide a hydrological reanalysis as well as hydrological predictions.

A specific feature of the European and global model set-up of OS LISFLOOD is that not only the model and associated tools for pre-/post-processing, calibration, etc. are open-source, but also the required input and calibrated parameter maps are freely accessible. This allows users to benefit from the latest developments and, more importantly, it enables a wider community in contributing to further extending and improving the model and its set-up.

In this presentation we describe the next major evolution of OS LISFLOOD and its set-up for the European (EFAS v6.x) and global domain (GloFAS v5.x). The main foreseen changes can be grouped into three categories: 1.) model input; 2.) model improvements; and 3.) calibration and regionalization.

The main changes in the model input concern the meteorological forcings. For the European domain, the meteorological forcings benefit from an increased number of meteorological observations, improved quality control, and a modified interpolation method. In the global model domain, enhancements include a correction of spurious rainfall and a modified downscaling of ERA-5 meteorological variables. Furthermore, changes in the surface fields related to soil properties, lakes and reservoirs as well as water demand for anthropogenic use integrating the latest available datasets have been included. Hydrological model advancements focus on river routing, in particular for mild sloping rivers, and a modified reservoir routine. Furthermore, the model state initialization has been enhanced and a new modelling routine called transmission loss which accounts for streamflow leakage has been added. For model calibration and regionalization, it is foreseen to increase the number of calibration stations, improve the overall performance of the objective function along the whole flow duration curve, add more hydrological performance statistics, and to utilize the power of deep learning during the regionalization of model parameters.

The improved model, its new set-up as well as the hydrological model reanalysis and predictions will be freely available. Its release as part of the operational EFAS, GloFAS, EDO, and GDO of CEMS is foreseen during 2025. 

How to cite: Salamon, P. and the team of co-authors: Improving hydrological modelling and prediction at the European and Global scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8642, 2025.

EGU25-9124 | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

The LUE modelling framework for scalable hydrological models 

Kor de Jong, Oliver Schmitz, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Madlene Nussbaum, Pelle Scheffer, and Derek Karssenberg

Increasing a model's spatio-temporal resolution and extent has scientific and operational implications. First, hydrological processes
operating at a smaller spatio-temporal scale may need to be incorporated in the model's description, increasing its computational load. Second,
the data storage requirements of the model will increase. Third, an increase in model size (operations and data) will result in an increase
in memory and runtime requirements. Here, we focus on this latter implication.

To allow models that increase in size to execute they must be able to use additional hardware efficiently: they must scale with hardware. We
have ported two existing hydrological models, PCR-GLOBWB (Sutanudjaja et al. 2018) and PyCatch (Lana-Renault et al. 2013), to the LUE modelling
framework (LUE contributors. 2024), and are conducting scalability experiments to assess how well the models are capable of using
additional hardware.

PCR-GLOBWB simulates hydrology and water resources at a global scale. PyCatch simulates hydrological processes at the catchment scale. Both
models currently use the PCRaster modelling framework (PCRaster contributers. 2024), rasters to represent spatially varying model state,
and discrete time steps for simulating changes in model state over time. PCR-GLOBWB supports being run at continental and global scale at 5
arc-minute spatial resolution, using daily time steps. The PCR-GLOBWB research team aims to support 1km spatial resolution, and even 100m
resolution and hourly time steps after that. PyCatch supports being run at catchment scale at 10m spatial resolution, using hourly time steps.
Its research team aims to support regional scale runs at 5m spatial resolution.

PCRaster supports executing models using a single CPU core. LUE is a successor of PCRaster, capable of using all CPU cores in multiple
computers. It is implemented in C++ and makes use of the HPX standard library for concurrency and parallelism (Kaiser et al. 2024). For model
developers LUE provides language APIs for multiple programming languages, like C, C++, Java, and Python. Currently, the Python API is
ready to be used.

We have developed the lue.pcraster Python sub-package which allows PCR-GLOBWB and PyCatch to be executed with LUE, without having to change
the model code. In our presentation we will show more about LUE and highlight the first results of scalability experiments we are currently
performing for both models. These experiments characterize how well LUE is able to execute models faster by using additional hardware, and how
well LUE is able to use additional hardware to execute models with larger datasets.

References
Kaiser et al. 2024. "STEllAR-GROUP/hpx: HPX: The C++ Standards Library for Parallelism and Concurrency." https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.598202
Lana-Renault et al. 2013. "PyCatch: Component Based Hydrological Catchment Modelling." Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica 39 (2): 315--333. https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.1993
LUE contributors. 2024. "LUE Scientific Database and Environmental Modelling Framework." https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5535686
PCRaster contributers. 2024. "The PCRaster Environmental Modelling Framework." https://pcraster.computationalgeography.org
Sutanudjaja et al. 2018. "PCR-GLOBWB 2: A 5 Arcmin Global Hydrological and Water Resources Model." Geoscientific Model Development 11 (6): 2429--53. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018

How to cite: de Jong, K., Schmitz, O., Sutanudjaja, E., Nussbaum, M., Scheffer, P., and Karssenberg, D.: The LUE modelling framework for scalable hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9124, 2025.

EGU25-9720 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

The Process and Value of Reprogramming a Legacy Global Hydrological Model 

Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, Martina Flörke, Leon Mühlenbruch, Lasse Nissen, and Robert Reinecke

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have significantly advanced in process representation and spatial resolution over the past four decades. These advancements include the inclusion of reservoirs. However, significant needs and opportunities remain to improve these models, particularly for better representing human-environment interactions and reducing model uncertainties by improved integration of model output observations.

As research questions and GHMs become more complex, maintaining and further developing an existing model code in an efficient manner becomes increasingly challenging. Similar to other complex research software, GHMs are developed by scientists with limited software development training, time, and funding, and thus lack the software quality that is required for a sustainable research software. This includes non-modular design, poor variable naming, suboptimal comment density, and a lack of testing frameworks. The sustainability of GHMs could be significantly enhanced by reprogramming them using modern best practices.

While global models such as HydroPy and CLASSIC (a global land surface model) have been reprogrammed, publications on the reprogrammed software focus on evaluating model performance. Details in the reprogramming process, from project management to final software release, are missing. Here, we present the process of reprogramming the GHM WaterGAP to a sustainable research software. This involves rewriting WaterGAP from scratch, introducing improvements such as modular architecture, Python programming, version control, open-source licensing, consistent variable naming, comprehensive documentation, and testing, while maintaining good computational performance. We evaluate the reprogrammed WaterGAP code against software sustainability criteria and FAIR4RS principles.

Reprogramming with best practices requires effort but makes the resulting software easier to use, maintain, modify, and extend. With reprogramming WaterGAP, we aim to facilitate joint code development across multiple locations and by various developer groups, thus establishing a community GHM that is easily understood, used and enhanced by novice users.

 

How to cite: Nyenah, E., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Mühlenbruch, L., Nissen, L., and Reinecke, R.: The Process and Value of Reprogramming a Legacy Global Hydrological Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9720, 2025.

EGU25-10605 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation into large-scale hydrological models: a new sequential filter to mitigate errors of ensemble-based disaggregation schemes 

Leire Retegui-Schiettekatte, Maike Schumacher, Fan Yang, Henrik Madsen, and Ehsan Forootan

Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) represents the total amount of water stored on land, which can be measured using satellite gravity missions like the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission (GRACE) and its Follow-On mission (GRACE-FO), as well as future gravity missions. Integrating TWS data into hydrological models through Data Assimilation (DA) frameworks has been shown to enhance TWS simulations by introducing long-term trends and adjusting seasonal variations. DA is often carried out using sequential ensemble-based methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), which is preferred for its straightforward implementation. The EnKF combines model predictions and observations in a Bayesian manner, i.e., weighting them based on their uncertainties. It then uses ensemble statistics to disaggregate the spatially coarse TWS increments into finer model grids and different vertical water storage components. Typically, EnKF-based TWS DA experiments use small ensemble sizes of 20-30 members to minimize computational demands. However, this can lead to spurious correlations that negatively impact the vertical and horizontal increment disaggregation, thus affecting model dynamics.

In this study, we aim to (i) understand how standard ensemble-statistics-driven disaggregation affects DA results, and (ii) propose an alternative filter that avoids using ensemble statistics in the disaggregation process. This new filter follows the design of sequential ensemble-based DA but introduces a new TWS disaggregation scheme, distributing the TWS increment according to the water content of each grid cell and vertical water storage component. We evaluate the performance of both filters by assimilating synthetic and real TWS observations from various regions worldwide. Our results indicate that both filters produce similar monthly TWS estimates that align well with the assimilated observations. However, the EnKF’s increment disaggregation leads to some issues, such as (i) discrepancies between DA results and ground truth for individual water storage component estimates (in the case of synthetic experiments) and (ii) a rapid divergence of model states from the updated state within a few daily timesteps after DA. These issues are particularly noticeable on a sub-monthly timescale but can also extend over several months in some periods and regions. The new filter proposed in this study mitigates these issues, resulting in more accurate estimates for individual components in synthetic experiments and a more natural model response to DA updates overall.

How to cite: Retegui-Schiettekatte, L., Schumacher, M., Yang, F., Madsen, H., and Forootan, E.: Terrestrial Water Storage Data Assimilation into large-scale hydrological models: a new sequential filter to mitigate errors of ensemble-based disaggregation schemes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10605, 2025.

EGU25-10755 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Global water storage trends as observed from the GRACE/-FO G3P product 

Roland Hohensinn, Junyang Gou, Ulrich Meyer, Eva Boergens, Benedikt Soja, Andreas Güntner, Vincent Humphrey, Michael Rast, and Wouter Dorigo

With time series ranging over more than twenty years, terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, 2002-2017) and GRACE-Follow-On (GRACE-FO, since 2018) missions are providing unique insights into hydrological dynamics, on a global scale. TWS encompasses changes in all water storage compartments, from soil moisture, surface water storage, snow and ice, to groundwater. GFZ operationally provides monthly TWS grids via the GravIS portal (Gravity Information Service, gravis.gfz.de).

Within the G3P project, GFZ recently released a global gravity-based product that includes both TWS variations and also groundwater storage (GWS) variations. GWS is calculated by subtracting the aggregated and filtered storage contributions of the other water storage components, from GRACE/-FO TWS. A challenge for both TWS and GWS is the separation of long-term trends (e.g., resulting from regional human activities and climate change) from stochastic variations as attributable to natural climate variability ("climate noise").

To address this challenge, we introduce an unsupervised trend analysis framework that uses power-law noise models to account for long-range memory in the hydrological time series under investigation. This approach requires minimal assumptions about the underlying processes and provides a robust method for separating long-term trends from stochastic variability. By addressing the limitations of existing methods, such as underestimated uncertainties and simplified noise representations, our framework allows for accurate quantification of trend magnitudes and of their significance. Firstly, this is confirmed for TWS, by comparing reported trends to our detected trends. Concerning the GWS product, we observe that anthropogenic depletion of groundwater is a primary driver of freshwater decline. Furthermore, we reveal previously unobserved trends, including increasing groundwater levels in parts of Africa and declining trends in central and eastern Europe. We also demonstrate how the presented method identifies potential false-positive trends, which enhances the reliability of trend detection. This scalable approach for trend analyses is currently extended to integrate uncertainties that arise from measurement system uncertainties, enhancing its applicability to other essential climate variables.

How to cite: Hohensinn, R., Gou, J., Meyer, U., Boergens, E., Soja, B., Güntner, A., Humphrey, V., Rast, M., and Dorigo, W.: Global water storage trends as observed from the GRACE/-FO G3P product, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10755, 2025.

EGU25-10825 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Correcting overestimated potential evaporation from the Penman-Monteith equation during water-limited conditions 

Tejasvi Ashish Chauhan, Sarosh Alam Ghausi, Anke Hildebrandt, and Axel Kleidon

Accurate estimation of potential evaporation is crucial for water resource management and trends in continental aridity. Potential evaporation is widely estimated using the Penman-Monteith (P-M) equation which has two main terms: the radiative forcing term, and the atmospheric dryness term, also called the aerodynamic component, which depends on the vapor pressure deficit (VPD). However, the aerodynamic component of the P-M equation overestimates potential evaporation in the presence of water limitation, exceeding the limits imposed by surface energy balance. This inconsistency arises because the high VPD in arid regions does not represent entirely the conditions of the idealized wet surface — an important underlying assumption for potential evaporation. Here we show that changes in VPD are mainly caused by changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR).  For a given radiative forcing, soil water limitation amplifies the DTR through a reduction in the latent heat flux, this enhances the VPD, and therefore the aerodynamic component, yet without enhancing energy availability. We quantify this overestimation using FLUXNET observations and ERA-5 reanalysis data in combination with a thermodynamically-constrained surface energy balance approach. We find that soil water limitation amplifies DTR by up to 20 K, which increases VPD by up to 25 hPa. This additional VPD generates very high potential evaporation estimates in the aerodynamic component that exceed the available energy at the surface by over 100 W/m². When we remove the imprints of water limitation from DTR and VPD, the P-M equation leads to reduced potential evaporation rates approaching consistency with the surface energy balance. These results have significant implications for quantifying continental aridity and its changes with global warming.

How to cite: Chauhan, T. A., Ghausi, S. A., Hildebrandt, A., and Kleidon, A.: Correcting overestimated potential evaporation from the Penman-Monteith equation during water-limited conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10825, 2025.

EGU25-10858 | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Advancements in Large-Scale Hydrology Simulation Technologies 

Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Matthew Geheran, Victor Roland, Natalie Memarsadeghi, and Adam Sisco

In recent decades, many regions across the globe have experienced severe natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, resulting in substantial loss of life, economic damage, infrastructure destruction, and public health crises. In 2022 alone, the worldwide economic cost of natural disasters totaled 313 billion U.S. dollars. The frequency and intensity of these extreme events are crucial factors for assessing river systems and developing effective flood risk management strategies for both present and future scenarios. Large-scale hydrological modeling tools are indispensable for addressing a range of water-related challenges, fostering sustainable development, and adapting to the impacts of climate change. A variety of advanced hydrological models have been developed for flood mapping, forecasting, and operational use. Beyond traditional in-situ data, remote sensing technologies offer valuable datasets for monitoring and analyzing river systems on a global scale. These data present new opportunities to improve hydrological forecasting and integrate into large-scale models, highlighting the importance of collaborative efforts across agencies and organizations. This presentation will explore key tools, systems, and applications resulting from such collaborations, while identifying critical gaps and areas that require further development within the hydrological modeling community.

How to cite: Tavakoly, A. A., Geheran, M., Roland, V., Memarsadeghi, N., and Sisco, A.: Advancements in Large-Scale Hydrology Simulation Technologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10858, 2025.

EGU25-11074 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Investigation of the optimal complexity to simulate flow dynamics in a global river routing model. 

Emma Peronnet, Bertrand Decharme, and Simon Munier

Global hydrological models represent the terrestrial water cycle across the globe and help to study the impacts of climate change on water stress and flood risks. They are generally based on the coupling of a land surface model and a river routing model (RRM). RRMs were first created to close the water budget at the global scale in climate studies. They convey the runoff generated by land surface models to the sea by propagating the water through the river network. In the climate model community, for example in the CMIP6 exercise, most models use a very simplified routing scheme such as the kinematic wave, or no routing scheme at all. With the increase of computing capacities and observational global datasets, there is a recent and general tendency to increase the spatial resolution of models. As a consequence, some processes that can usually be neglected at coarser resolutions (such as backwater effects or overbank flows) have to be accounted for. More complex RRMs have been developed based on simplifications of the Saint-Venant equations (e.g., the local inertia approximation). They allow to more realistically represent the flow dynamics in rivers, and are then better suited to higher resolutions. In parallel, numerical methods like the Preissmann scheme are used in the hydraulic community to solve the full Saint-Venant equations for river reach to catchment scale applications. Yet, such methods are not adapted to global scale simulations due to their high computing demand. With the increase of computing capacities, the hydraulic community is also evolving towards larger scale modelling. Both communities tend to get closer, and there is a scientific debate on the best approach to improve process based hydraulic models.

The CTRIP model (CNRM version of the Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) is the RRM developed at CNRM (Météo France). Currently, CTRIP simulates the propagation of river discharges using the kinematic approximation of the Saint-Venant equations. Our study aims to complexify the routing scheme of CTRIP and try to investigate at which optimal complexity river dynamics should be simulated over various basins. As a first step, the complete Saint-Venant equations are integrated by a Crank Nicolson scheme with a Gauss Seidel iterative method in CTRIP. This scheme runs over the globe with a reasonable computing time. It is then comparatively analysed with the Saint-Venant equations integrated with a Preissmann scheme with a double sweep method, over an idealized test channel. Then, simplified models can be derived from the complete model of Saint-Venant, by neglecting terms of the momentum equation. Different wave types can be obtained: dynamic (with or without advection), gravity, diffusive or kinematic waves. We analyse over France at 1/12° resolution the governing conditions of those wave types (slope and friction bed, wave period) and the order of magnitude of the Saint-Venant terms over the domain. The complete model is compared to the simplified models in term of stability, physical realism, and computing time, and then evaluated against discharge observations.

How to cite: Peronnet, E., Decharme, B., and Munier, S.: Investigation of the optimal complexity to simulate flow dynamics in a global river routing model., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11074, 2025.

EGU25-11294 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Combined Data Assimilation of Satellite-Based Total Water Storage and Soil Moisture Data to Improve Global Evaporation Estimation 

Shekoofeh Haghdoost, Akash Koppa, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Olivier Bonte, Hans Lievens, Elham Rouholahnejad Freund, Niko E. C. Verhoest, and Diego G. Miralles

Evaporation is a fundamental process in the global water cycle, playing a critical role in regulating climate, sustaining ecosystems, and managing water resources. Despite its importance, accurately estimating evaporation on a global scale remains a significant challenge due to its spatial and temporal variability and the scarcity of direct ground-based observations, especially in water-limited regions. Satellite observations of key land surface processes offer a potential solution to these challenges, providing consistent and high-resolution observations that can enhance model-based evaporation estimates.

In this study, we assimilate observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) into the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). GRACE provides measurements of terrestrial water storage changes by detecting variations in Earth's gravity field, offering critical insights into large-scale hydrological processes that are otherwise difficult to observe. GLEAM, a widely used model for land evaporation, integrates meteorological data, vegetation dynamics, and satellite-based soil moisture to provide comprehensive estimates of evaporation through the computation of its main components (interception loss, bare soil evaporation, and transpiration). GLEAM4 is able to represent groundwater-sourced transpiration, making it suitable for improvements via GRACE data assimilation.

More specifically, we investigate the impact of assimilating GRACE data into GLEAM4 and compare its performance across three data assimilation scenarios: (1) when only GRACE data are assimilated, (2) when only ESA-CCI soil moisture data are assimilated, and (3) when both GRACE and ESA-CCI soil moisture data are assimilated. This comparative analysis evaluates the ability of GLEAM to incorporate complementary remote sensing products to better capture evaporation-related processes, thus reducing uncertainties and improving accuracy in global evaporation estimates.

Our findings reveal that the integration of both GRACE and soil moisture data can marginally but consistently improve the model’s ability to represent the spatial and temporal variability of evaporation, particularly in water-limited regions, where accurate evaporation estimates are the most needed. This study highlights the potential of combining satellite-based datasets synergistically to address challenges in global evaporation estimation. By advancing the understanding of evaporation dynamics, these results contribute to improved hydrological and climatic assessments and water resource management in the context of climate change.

How to cite: Haghdoost, S., Koppa, A., M. Baez-Villanueva, O., Bonte, O., Lievens, H., Rouholahnejad Freund, E., E. C. Verhoest, N., and G. Miralles, D.: Combined Data Assimilation of Satellite-Based Total Water Storage and Soil Moisture Data to Improve Global Evaporation Estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11294, 2025.

EGU25-11296 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

An explicit representation of river-floodplains relationships in the integrated hydrological - land surface model CLM-PARFLOW 

Pedro Felipe Arboleda Obando, Jean-Martial Cohard, Basile Hector, and Thierry Pellarin

Floodplains, a type of wetland regularly flooded by large rivers, are important hydrological objects to document and understand. They are places where the hydrological risk can be highly damageable, and where the high frequency of saturated soil moisture conditions due to flooding sustains an important biodiversity, provides important ecosystem services for human communities and regulates hydrological flows and exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere.

Despite this importance, floodplain dynamics are difficult to represent in large-scale hydrologic models because of the control that small-scale topography imposes on water flow and storage. Some coarse resolution large-scale models use simplified representations of floodplain dynamics at the subgrid scale. In these cases, the relationship between water height, water storage and flooded area is parameterized. It should be noted that this approach does not always capture the complex relationships between floodplains and other hydrologic processes. On the other hand, the use of finer scale integrated hydrologic models could explicitly represent the complex relationship between rivers, aquifers and floodplains, but at an burdensome computational cost.

Here, we propose a methodology to represent floodplains in the integrated hydrological model CLM-PARFLOW, at a relatively low computational cost that allows its use in large-scale and high-resolution implementations even with a kinematic wave approach for surface flows. We prescribe an anisotropic layer near the surface in areas that are “regularly flooded” to allow up-slope flows driven by water head gradient. This anisotropic layer is defined by a depth and a tensor factor affecting horizontal permeability, and allows connecting river grids with neighboring floodplain grids when the water level is high enough to flood. The computational cost is low, as it uses the current capabilities of PARFLOW to represent horizontal subsurface flow at high resolution. We apply this representation to the Ouemé River basin in Benin (47000km²), at a resolution of 1 km, to test and optimize the parameters controlling the anisotropic layer.

First results show an improvement of horizontal flows between rivers and floodplain areas, especially during wet and high river discharge seasons, and a better representation of hydroclimate variables like ET in these areas. This methodology will further be applied to improve an existing 1 km² PARLFOW simulation over the West Africa domain (3.5 Mkm²), an area with large scale floodplain areas and intermittent endoreic ponds where the coupling between wetlands, rivers and aquifers control low-water levels in the dry seasons, and induce preferential recharge parthways, and where agriculture and pastoralism feed millions of people in West Africa.

How to cite: Arboleda Obando, P. F., Cohard, J.-M., Hector, B., and Pellarin, T.: An explicit representation of river-floodplains relationships in the integrated hydrological - land surface model CLM-PARFLOW, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11296, 2025.

EGU25-11544 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Global river discharge projections from 250 years of routed runoff from 20 CMIP6 climate models 

Pauline Seubert, Stephan Thober, Dominik L. Schumacher, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson

Large-ensemble global river flow projections are crucial for assessing future changes in extremes of river discharge in light of internal climate variability, model uncertainty, and anthropogenic climate change. However, river discharge simulations from global hydrology models often consider only a limited number of climate projections, while global climate models usually focus on grid-cell level runoff only.

To bridge this gap, we present a new global river discharge dataset covering 250 years derived by routing runoff from 20 global climate models from CMIP6 along the river network. Specifically, we consider daily runoff from both the historical CMIP6 experiment (1850–2014) as well as the most extreme future scenario (SSP5-8.5, 2015–2099). Routing is computed at a 0.1 degree horizontal resolution using the multi-scale routing model mRM, which implements the kinematic wave equation and is adaptable to a wide range of spatial scales. For the validation of the new dataset, we compare distributional properties of annual maximum (1-day) and annual minimum (7-day) river flow to observations at almost 2000 GRDC-Caravan gauge stations. To this end, we use mean squared error (MSE) decomposition to additionally examine the contribution of different error sources. We find that the squared bias is the most important MSE component at each gauge station for both annual extreme statistics while the shape of the distribution is simulated more accurately. Building on these validated river discharge simulations, we project changes in high, low, and mean flows and evaluate the agreement between the 20 ensemble members. This way, the robustness and range of the projections can be estimated considering uncertainties from both global climate models as well as internal climate variability.

How to cite: Seubert, P., Thober, S., Schumacher, D. L., Seneviratne, S. I., and Gudmundsson, L.: Global river discharge projections from 250 years of routed runoff from 20 CMIP6 climate models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11544, 2025.

EGU25-13249 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Source or Sink? Thermal inflow to global reservoirs and lakes at 1 km 

Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Rohini Kumar, Sebastian Mueller, Stephan Thober, Sabine Attinger, and Luis Samaniego

Global methane emissions from freshwater offsets 25% of terrestrial greenhouse gas sink (Bastviken et al., 2011). Global rivers contribute roughly the same as lakes to this emission (Stanely et al., 2016; Rocher-Ros et al., 2023). Global warming is set to exacerbate this further as warmer water leads to lower levels of dissolved O2, reduced CO2 capture, and increase in methane production and eutrophication. Understanding the thermal inflow from rivers to lakes and reservoirs is, therefore, essential to monitor (and forecast) the exceedance of emission critical values.

Large-scale hyper-resolution modeling allows for locally relevant analyses, a feature recently achieved for hydrological modeling at continental-scale and global-scale (Hoch et al,. 2023; van Jaarsveld et al., 2025). While global river and lake temperature models exist (van Vliet et al., 2011; Wanders et al., 2019), hyper-resolution modeling of river thermal content at the global scale is yet to be demonstrated.

Here, we analyze the changes in thermal inflows to surface water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) globally at 1 km based on the river temperature routing module implemented within the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM, https://mhm-ufz.org). Surface water temperature in rivers is modeled by balancing the heat exchange between the atmosphere and river water while accounting for energy sources from the sub-surface systems. The experimental setup is based on Shrestha et al. (under review), where 62 domains cover the global land-surface and the simulation period is set to 1961-2020. The setup includes major global lakes and reservoirs enlisted in the HydroLAKES and GRanD v1.3, respectively, the process representation of which follows Shrestha et al. (2024).

We have evaluated the model at 5,000 streamflow observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre and 500 river temperature observations from Global Environment Monitoring System. We have also carried out sensitivity analysis of water temperature simulations to the surface albedo, where space-time varying albedo is expected to result in a closer match to the observations, than with a constant albedo, besides analyzing the trends and clusters of water temperature and derived indicators. For reproducibility, the experiment backend is powered by ecFlow, the workflow management tool developed by ECMWF. Our modeling framework on the analysis of water and energy inflows, covering surface water systems – lakes and reservoirs – globally forms a basis for timely warning of critical events with high thermal inflows, and such systems could see far-reaching applications, e.g., insurance underwriting for the fisheries industry. 

How to cite: Shrestha, P. K., Kumar, R., Mueller, S., Thober, S., Attinger, S., and Samaniego, L.: Source or Sink? Thermal inflow to global reservoirs and lakes at 1 km, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13249, 2025.

EGU25-14382 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

High-Resolution Simulation of Future Runoff Variability and Extremes Across China 

Danyang Gao, Toby Richard Marthews, and Guangtao Fu

As the third-largest country in the world by land area, with highly diverse climatic regions and major river basins, China serves as a critical case study for examining large-scale hydrology under climate change. However, few studies have comprehensively investigated future runoff variability and extreme events across the entire region at high spatial resolution. This study analyses future runoff changes across China at 0.25-degree resolution under medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios, using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), which has been calibrated and validated for simulating hydrological processes in China. The Global Climate Models (GCMs) are downscaled and bias-corrected using the bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method to drive the model. The results highlight significant regional imbalances in annual runoff, with an increase of 41.45 mm/decade in the Southeast basin under SSP585, compared to 7.30 mm/decade at the national scale. Seasonal patterns reveal contrasting trends, including wetter summers and drier winters in the south, while the northwest is expected to experience the opposite pattern. Projected changes indicate a rise in extreme high runoff in over 56% of regions, particularly in the south, and increased extreme low runoff in over 40% of China, notably in the central Yangtze River basin. Both extreme high and low runoff are projected to intensify in the far future, with SSP585 indicating more severe impacts. This study identifies spatial disparities and trends critical for sustainable water resource management and targeted adaptation strategies in response to climate change.

How to cite: Gao, D., Marthews, T. R., and Fu, G.: High-Resolution Simulation of Future Runoff Variability and Extremes Across China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14382, 2025.

Climate conditions and human impact influence surface water variability. Extreme events like river flooding alter interactions between land surfaces and groundwater, affecting sediment and nutrient exchange, ecosystems, and land-atmosphere feedback. Modeling these interactions is challenging due to uncertainties in inputs like floodplain topography, channel morphology, and river flow parameterizations, which impact water and energy balances. Coarse-resolution land surface models (LSMs) (over 10 km) struggle to accurately represent surface water dynamics because they cannot capture complex topography while still accounting for local and regional hydroclimatological dynamics.

This study uses the HydroBlocks Land Surface Modeling framework to address these challenges by resolving land-surface interactions at finer spatial resolutions (~90 m). Through a hierarchical multivariate tiling structure, HydroBlocks overcomes the limitations of coarser models and better represents small-scale heterogeneity. A two-way coupling scheme allows for horizontal water redistribution through the kinematic wave equation.

Water levels are highly sensitive to local factors like channel bathymetry, riverbed slope, and floodplain inundation. Validating water level dynamics requires extensive observations. The launch of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission in December 2022 provides high-resolution (~100 m) water surface elevation observations, offering a unique opportunity to study flooding dynamics and improve its representation in LSMs.

This study aims to enhance understanding of water surface dynamics by comparing SWOT observations with HydroBlocks simulations. This integrated approach provides insights into localized and broader trends in water surface elevation, enabling the identification of groundwater signatures and climatological influences. By validating HydroBlocks against SWOT data and conducting sensitivity analyses, the study aims to improve understanding of processes controlling flooding dynamics and better inform the structure of LSMs and spatially distributed validation strategies.

The study examines the Connecticut River watershed, covering 29,200 square kilometers across six northeastern U.S. states, with elevations ranging from sea level to over 1,200 m. Seasonal variations in precipitation and snowmelt create a complex hydrological system, making it suitable for our model validation.

How to cite: Guyumus, D. and Chaney, N.:  Assessing the Performance of Land Surface Models in Representing Flood Dynamics: A HydroBlocks-SWOT Approach in the Connecticut River Basin, US, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14409, 2025.

EGU25-14689 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Global Analysis of Streamflow Return Periods Using GRDC Data and Bootstrapping Techniques 

Faheed Jasin Kolaparambil and Bastian van den Bout

Understanding streamflow extremes is essential for effective water resource management and disaster risk reduction. This study uses the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database, comprising daily discharge records from stations worldwide, to calculate return periods for streamflow extremes using L-moments and bootstrapping techniques. Bootstrapping techniques were employed to enhance the robustness of return period estimates by quantifying uncertainties and providing confidence intervals, ensuring more reliable insights into streamflow extremes across diverse hydrological contexts, particularly when there are numerous stations with limited or incomplete observations.

In this study, we analyze the multi-decadal changes and trends in streamflow extremes for different climatic zones across the globe. The temporal trends indicate potential shifts in return periods, suggesting the possible influence of climate variability. Regional anomalies highlight localized hydrological phenomena, emphasizing the importance of spatially explicit analyses.

The results have broad implications for flood and drought risk assessment, water resource planning, and climate adaptation strategies. By providing a global perspective on hydrological extremes, this study contributes to an improved understanding of streamflow variability and offers critical benchmarks for future hydrological modeling and climate impact assessments.

How to cite: Kolaparambil, F. J. and Bout, B. V. D.: Global Analysis of Streamflow Return Periods Using GRDC Data and Bootstrapping Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14689, 2025.

EGU25-14986 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1 | Highlight

Groundwater-dependent ecosystem map exposes global dryland protection needs 

Xander Huggins and Melissa M. Rohde and the Rohde et al. 2024 co-authors

Groundwater’s role in supporting ecosystems worldwide is rarely acknowledged. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs), which depend on groundwater for some or all of their water needs, are diverse and include desert springs, mountain meadows and streams, coastal wetlands and forests. However, the location of these ecosystems worldwide has been largely unknown, hindering our ability to track impacts, establish protective policies, and implement conservation projects.

Here, leveraging Earth Observation datasets, random forest modelling, and multiple national and state-level GDE mapping initiatives, we map GDEs across global drylands at high resolution (1 arc-second, roughly 30 m pixels). We find GDEs present on over 8.3 million km2 -- more than one-third of areas analyzed, including important biodiversity hotspots. GDEs are found to be more extensive and contiguous in pastoral landscapes with lower rates of groundwater depletion, suggesting that many GDEs are likely to have already been lost due to land and water use practices. Over half of GDEs exist within regions showing declining trends in regional groundwater storage, and only one-fifth of GDEs exist on protected lands or in jurisdictions with sustainable groundwater management policies, invoking a call to action to protect these vital ecosystems.

Cultural and socio-economic linkages with GDEs further underpin these protection needs. The Greater Sahel serves as a case study of these factors, where GDEs play an essential role in supporting biodiversity and rural livelihoods, and which we use as a basis to discuss other means for GDE protection in politically unstable regions. 

Our GDE map provides critical information for prioritizing and developing policies and protection mechanisms across various local, regional or international scales to safeguard these important ecosystems and the societies dependent on them. An interactive version of our global GDE and GDE probability maps are available at https://codefornature.projects.earthengine.app/view/global-gde. 

Reference

Rohde, M.M., Albano, C.M., Huggins, X. et al. Groundwater-dependent ecosystem map exposes global dryland protection needs. Nature 632, 101–107 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07702-8 

How to cite: Huggins, X. and Rohde, M. M. and the Rohde et al. 2024 co-authors: Groundwater-dependent ecosystem map exposes global dryland protection needs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14986, 2025.

EGU25-15623 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

The impacts of climatic variations and human water use on global and regional terrestrial water storage changes 

Stine Klemmensen, Ehsan Forootan, Emmanuel Nyenah, Petra Döll, and Maike Schumacher

The impacts of natural climate variability and anthropogenic water use on our global water resources can be observed from space by dedicated satellite missions or simulated by global hydrological models. It is, however, difficult to quantify the relative contribution of fundamental drivers of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes, e.g., due to a lack of data or processes in models and the limited vertical and spatial resolution of satellite data sets. Regions that are challenged by acute or constant water stress, as well as areas with increased flooding risk, would benefit from a better understanding and quantification of the main drivers of surface and sub-surface water storage changes.

In this study, we identify the main drivers of TWS changes due to natural and human-induced impacts under changing climate. We analyse almost two decades (2003-2021) of TWS changes simulated by the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and compare them to observations from the satellite gravity missions GRACE and GRACE-FO. The relative contribution of individual water storage components to TWS is calculated. At large-scale, their variations are found to correlate with natural processes, i.e. precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river outflow. In addition, the influence of human interventions on the water cycle are identified as episodic and long-term effects on the surface water and groundwater extraction. We analyse the largest river basins (>200.000km2) world-wide to identify regions under acute or chronic water stress.

How to cite: Klemmensen, S., Forootan, E., Nyenah, E., Döll, P., and Schumacher, M.: The impacts of climatic variations and human water use on global and regional terrestrial water storage changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15623, 2025.

EGU25-16742 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Evaluating Hydrologic Processes and Their Drivers For a Large Geographical Domain 

Peter Wagener, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark

Hydrologic processes are well understood in many locations worldwide and this understanding is commonly encoded as perceptual models of hydrologic behavior. Currently lacking is a large-scale synthesis of this understanding: it is difficult to accurately describe the relation between the drivers of hydrologic behaviors and the resulting hydrologic processes for a given point in space. As large-sample and large-domain modeling is increasingly used, knowledge of the relationship between drivers and processes is crucial to inform modeling decisions, such as the choice of process parametrizations and spatial discretization. Therefore, there is a need to investigate the relationship between hydrologic drivers and processes for large geographical domains. Here, we report progress on a detailed analysis of the connection between hydrologic processes and drivers.

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between hydrologic signatures and drivers, identifying climate attributes as the dominant driver in most locations. However, these previous studies did not find clear results for the importance of additional drivers and/or did not focus on a clear connection to hydrologic processes. We investigate the importance of additional drivers, such as land use, subsurface properties, and topography, and their relationship with hydrologic processes in different hydrologic landscapes. These landscapes are derived from a large community-driven initiative and are intended to provide a high-level division of the North American continent into smaller regions that should have distinct hydrologic behavior. For this purpose, we use large sample datasets for the United States and Canada, which help systemize the importance of drivers in time and space and the processes they influence.

We evaluate the inter and intra-region variations in signatures and drivers using various statistical analysis methods. Preliminary results confirm that (i) these hydrologic landscapes capture meaningful differences in dominant processes and (ii) the statistical analyses often highlight the most influential drivers within each region and their resulting processes. We will use the gained knowledge to adjust model structures to improve process representation across the continent.

How to cite: Wagener, P., Knoben, W. J. M., and Clark, M. P.: Evaluating Hydrologic Processes and Their Drivers For a Large Geographical Domain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16742, 2025.

EGU25-16858 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Assessment of Environmental Flows and River Health in the Middle Regions of Ganga River and its Tributaries 

Naga Venkata Satish Laveti and Subashisa Dutta

Assessment of Environmental flow (E-flow) plays a vital role for achieving sustainable water resources management. This study intends to develop suitable methodologies for assessing E-flows in the middle reaches of the Ganga River. The methodology includes developing a hydrological model, hydrological alteration analysis, stream health assessment, and E-flow estimation using flow health indicators. First, a hydrological model has been simulated, calibrated and validated in northern and southern tributaries of Ganga River (namely Kosi, Gandak and others) of the study region. The outcomes of the model reveals that the monthly discharge for ungauged basins is promising and aids in completing the water balance analysis for the entire reach. Second, hydrological alternation analysis is carried out using Indicators of Hydrological Alternation tool in the tributaries and the main river. The analysis indicates that no significant changes occurred in the river and its tributaries' flow for the last four decades. However, the water balance flow chart shows notable variations in the interaction patterns between surface water and groundwater. Third, stream health conditions of the river are analysed by using Flow Health tool. The results represent the natural flow variation of the stream for the analysis period. Since the deviation between natural and observed flows reflects the stream's health condition, a detailed stream health analysis is carried out by considering various combinations. The analysis reveals that stream health and its temporal variation of upstream are good with the less temporal variation. At major tributary level, the stream health and its temporal variations are deteriorating from 1970s. At the main Ganga reach level river health and its temporal variations does not show any declining trend. Finally, E-flows are estimated in two methods; computing ten percent Mean Annual Flow and computation of monthly E-flows using Flow Health. The outcome of the study demonstrates, Flow Health tool can be applied for estimation of the variations in the monthly E-flows in the case of rivers like Ganga.

How to cite: Laveti, N. V. S. and Dutta, S.: Assessment of Environmental Flows and River Health in the Middle Regions of Ganga River and its Tributaries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16858, 2025.

EGU25-18996 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.1

Global hydropower potential affected by interplay between forest restoration and climate change 

Awad M. Ali, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Tim van Emmerik, Pelle J. J. P. Scheffer, and Ryan Teuling

Forest restoration and hydropower production play a key role in mitigating climate change. However, they both depend on water availability, and influence the regional water distribution. It is therefore essential to understand how forest restoration affects hydropower potential under current and future climates. Here, we investigate these interactions on a global scale through an interdisciplinary approach using the Budyko framework. The analysis draws on cutting-edge datasets, including potential tree cover change, high-resolution climatic variables, and moisture recycling data. We assess the impact of regional and global afforestation scenarios on hydropower potential across current climate and future change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0). While regional restoration generally results in a net negative impact on water availability (−13.4 mm yr−1), global restoration helps mitigate this effect (−6.9 mm yr−1). Similarly, global restoration yields more positive and fewer negative effects on hydropower potential compared to regional restoration. Future climate projections suggest a net positive impact on hydropower potential, though with more pronounced positive and negative effects at the dam catchment scale.  We stress that it is essential to consider the interaction between forest restoration and climate impacts on renewable energy systems, for the effective prioritization of forest restoration plans. Future research should focus on process-based models that better capture seasonal climate variability and account for feedback effects of restoration on moisture recycling. Furthermore, these models should integrate actual reservoir operations to accurately represent hydropower production within natural and physical constraints.

How to cite: M. Ali, A., Hoek van Dijke, A. J., Roebroek, C. T. J., van Emmerik, T., Scheffer, P. J. J. P., and Teuling, R.: Global hydropower potential affected by interplay between forest restoration and climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18996, 2025.

EGU25-19338 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.1

Comprehensive Global Assessment of 23 Gridded PrecipitationDatasets Across 16,295 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling 

Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, JongCheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, and Hylke E. Beck

Numerous gridded precipitation (P) datasets have been developed to address a variety of needs and challenges. However, selecting the most suitable and reliable dataset remains a challenge for users. We conducted the most comprehensive global evaluation to date of gridded (sub-)daily $P$ datasets using hydrological modeling. A total of 23 datasets, derived from satellite, model, gauge sources, or their combinations thereof, were assessed. To evaluate their performance, we calibrated the conceptual hydrological model HBV against observed daily streamflow for 16,295 catchments (each <10,000~km2) worldwide, using each P dataset as input. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) was used as the performance metric and the calibration score served as a proxy for P dataset performance. Overall, MSWEP V2.8 demonstrated the highest performance (median KGE of 0.75), highlighting the value of merging P estimates from diverse data sources and applying daily gauge corrections. Among the purely satellite-based P datasets, the soil moisture- and microwave-based GPM+SM2RAIN dataset performed best (median KGE of 0.60), while the JRA-3Q reanalysis ranked highest among the purely model-based datasets (median KGE of 0.67), outperforming the widely used ERA5 reanalysis (median KGE of 0.59). Performance varied across Köppen-Geiger climate zones, with the best results in polar (E) regions (median KGE of 0.74 across datasets) and the lowest in arid (B) regions (median KGE of 0.33 across datasets). We further examined the spatial relationships between catchment attributes and KGE scores, identifying potential evaporation, air temperature, solid P fraction, and latitude as the strongest predictors of performance. Our analysis revealed significant regional differences in dataset performance and heterogeneity in P error characteristics, underscoring the critical importance of careful dataset selection for water resource management, hazard assessment, agricultural planning, and environmental monitoring.

How to cite: Abbas, A., Yang, Y., Pan, M., Tramblay, Y., Shen, C., Ji, H., Gebrechorkos, S. H., Pappenberger, F., Pyo, J., Feng, D., Huffman, G., Nguyen, P., Massari, C., Brocca, L., Jackson, T., and Beck, H. E.: Comprehensive Global Assessment of 23 Gridded PrecipitationDatasets Across 16,295 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19338, 2025.

EGU25-21410 | Orals | HS2.5.1

Introducing EU-Hydro 2.0: A Copernicus high-resolutionhydrographic product across Europe based on latest generationelevation and ancillary data 

Bernhard Lehner, Linda Moser, Achim Roth, Guia M. Mortel, Amelie Lindmayer, Leena Warmedinger, Gunther Grill, Stephanie Wegscheider, Carolin Keller, Stefan Ram, Antje Wetzel, Maria Kampouraki, Martin Huber, Jose M. Rubio Iglesias, and Joanna Przystawaska

The EU-Hydro dataset offers detailed information on the geographical distribution and spatial characteristics of water resources throughout Europe, such as river networks, surface water bodies and watersheds. It is a hydrographic reference dataset part of the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (CLMS) portfolio, implemented by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The first version of EU-Hydro was developed in 2012, with subsequent updates aimed at improving data accuracy and network topology. EU-Hydro has been widely used for hydrographic mapping applications, among them serving as input to several CLMS productions. However, its use for hydrological modelling remained limited due to inconsistencies and shortcomings in data structure, resolution, and quality. To offer a state-of-the-art next generation of EU-Hydro, it is currently being updated to produce an improved and upgraded version of this unique European reference dataset. Highlighting the importance of water mapping and modelling, the new version of EU-Hydro (EU-Hydro 2.0) shall tackle the requirements of a modern reference product within the pan-European hydrological domain, serving various use cases, including hydrological modelling and prediction as well as environmental assessments related to river connectivity and the evaluation of  anthropogenic impacts, all with the goal to strengthen water resilience across Europe.

The EU-Hydro 2.0 database will build upon a latest generation Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to provide highly detailed and high-quality topographic input data: the Copernicus DEM, a pan-European DEM available at 10m resolution, based on the TanDEM-X mission, supported by the Copernicus DEM at 30m resolution for catchments upstream and downstream that flow in and out of the EEA38 +UK area (EU27 + European Free Trade Association (EFTA) + Western Balkans + Turkey + UK). The production of EU-Hydro 2.0 will involve the best possible ancillary data of hydrography, land cover, and infrastructure to allow seamless integration into the DEM editing process, as well as VHR satellite data for quality control and validation. The product suite consists of eight main layers: The three main raster products are the hydrologically conditioned DEM (Hydro-DEM), the Flow Direction (Hydro-DIR) and the Flow Accumulation (Hydro-ACC) maps, supported by additional raster layers for expert hydrological use. The five vector products are the river network (Hydro-NET), water bodies (Hydro-WBO), basins and sub-watersheds (Hydro-BAS), a product on artificial hydrographic structures (Hydro-ART) and a coastline (Hydro-COAST). All layers will be interrelated, scalable and logically consistent. The approach aims at transparency and automation to-the-extent-possible, supported by manual corrections where needed to increase quality and meet user requirements. This will ensure efficient and reproducible data processing and facilitate further updates of EU-Hydro into the future.

How to cite: Lehner, B., Moser, L., Roth, A., Mortel, G. M., Lindmayer, A., Warmedinger, L., Grill, G., Wegscheider, S., Keller, C., Ram, S., Wetzel, A., Kampouraki, M., Huber, M., Rubio Iglesias, J. M., and Przystawaska, J.: Introducing EU-Hydro 2.0: A Copernicus high-resolutionhydrographic product across Europe based on latest generationelevation and ancillary data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21410, 2025.

EGU25-1312 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Source Water Protection in Quebec City: Using an integrated 3D hydrological model to investigate surface water - groundwater interactions 

Benjamin Frot, Laura Gatel, Yohann Tremblay, Hugo Delottier, and René Therrien

In the province of Quebec, Canada, the role of groundwater and its contribution to baseflow are rarely included to assess the vulnerability of surface water sources. However, in the case of Quebec City (560,000 inhabitants), stakeholders prefer that an integrated surface water and groundwater analysis be carried out to meet the highest standards of sustainable management. That approach goes beyond legislation, which does not require a fully integrated study.

A research project has been initiated to develop a set of stakeholder-oriented tools to assess both quantitative and qualitative vulnerability of the city's drinking water sources. The project focuses on the 350 km² catchment of the city’s main drinking water intake, which is in the Saint-Charles River. Due to intensive low flow periods, stakeholders are currently facing quantitative problems, with up to 95% of the river's flow being pumped. It is therefore crucial to characterise the water cycle in the area, including the identification of the main hydrological processes and the estimation of transient water availability. This requires a better understanding of the interactions between surface water and groundwater.

For that purpose, and to assist stakeholders, we developed a 3D integrated surface and subsurface flow model for the catchment with the HydroGeoSphere platform. The model is calibrated to observed times series of water table elevations and stream discharges from a network of monitoring wells and steam gauging stations. We then assess seasonal variations in water balance, resurgence and infiltration rates. Using a hydraulic mixing-cell postprocessing tool, we determine the different fractions of each streamflow component. This highlights the predominance of groundwater at the surface water intake, in agreement with isotopic analyses.

Finally, we also simulate the spatiotemporal vulnerability of the water intake by integrating climate change and urban development scenarios. Our study demonstrates that integrated surface and subsurface hydrological models are valuable tools to assist in designing water source protection plans, paving the way to new resource management policies.

How to cite: Frot, B., Gatel, L., Tremblay, Y., Delottier, H., and Therrien, R.: Source Water Protection in Quebec City: Using an integrated 3D hydrological model to investigate surface water - groundwater interactions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1312, 2025.

EGU25-2546 | Orals | HS2.5.2 | Highlight

Climate sensitivity of groundwater recharge 

Wouter Berghuijs, Scott Allen, Raoul Collenteur, Fernando Jaramillo, Scott Jasechko, Elco Luijendijk, Christian Moeck, and Ype van der Velde

Groundwater recharge is fundamental to supporting sustainable groundwater use for both ecosystems and human water withdrawals. Rates of recharge, and how these rates are affected by climate change, remain poorly constrained due to uncertain models and limited recharge measurements. We develop an emerging relationship between measurements of recharge and climatic aridity. This relationship suggests that recharge tends to be most sensitive to climatic changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation. In these regions, even modest aridification can significantly reduce groundwater recharge. Future climate-driven changes in recharge are likely to be primarily influenced by shifts in precipitation, with groundwater recharge typically responding more strongly than the precipitation changes themselves. Measurements of recharge are more sensitive to variations in aridity than recharge simulated by several global hydrological models is. As a result, the impacts of climate change on groundwater replenishment and the sustainability of groundwater use for humans and ecosystems are likely greater than previously estimated.

How to cite: Berghuijs, W., Allen, S., Collenteur, R., Jaramillo, F., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., Moeck, C., and van der Velde, Y.: Climate sensitivity of groundwater recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2546, 2025.

EGU25-2934 | Orals | HS2.5.2

Flow path delimitation in a groundwater flow system discharging into Mexico's majorlakes 

Selene Olea Olea, Eric Morales-Casique, Priscila Medina Ortega, Nelly Lucero Ramírez-Serrato, and Lorena Ramírez González

This study investigates the groundwater flow trajectories within the Cuitzeo Groundwater Flow System (GFS) in the center of Mexico, the home of the second and third biggest lakes of Mexico. We employ the End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) statistical method, water table configurations and structural features, utilizing semiconservative species such as Sr2+, Li+, and Cl− in order to better understand the pattern of groundwater circulation that is essential for sustainable management of groundwater resources.

Three distinct flow trajectory groups are identified: local, intermediate, and regional, each exhibiting unique hydrochemical characteristics. Local trajectories are linked to recharge waters, whereas intermediate trajectories indicate a progression towards more evolved waters. The regional trajectories, associated with fault zones along the shoreline of Lake Cuitzeo, reveal higher temperatures, suggesting geothermal influences. The lakes were fed by groundwater discharge of different flow paths, Lake Pátzcuaro is fed by local and Cuitzeo by local, intermediate and regional flow paths.

Extensive groundwater extraction, particularly during the dry season and due to the demands of avocado plantations, negatively impacts groundwater and lake levels. This extraction for agricultural purposes significantly alters the natural flow patterns and hydrochemical characteristics of the lakes.
This research highlights the need for integrated water resource management strategies that account for the interconnectedness of local, intermediate, and regional flow systems. Additionally, it brings international attention to the impact of avocado plantations on groundwater systems.

How to cite: Olea Olea, S., Morales-Casique, E., Medina Ortega, P., Ramírez-Serrato, N. L., and Ramírez González, L.: Flow path delimitation in a groundwater flow system discharging into Mexico's majorlakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2934, 2025.

With extreme climatic events and population growth predicted to continue increasing over the coming century, water stress across Europe (and elsewhere around the globe) is soon predicted to become critical. Offshore Freshened Groundwater (OFG) is being increasingly identified within continental margin sedimentary sequences worldwide, and has potential to be used as an industrial, agricultural, or potable resource, especially for draught mitigation during extreme climatic events. As part of an international effort under the Horizon Europe Water4All project RESCUE (RESources in Coastal groundwater Under hydroclimatic Extremes), we explore new methodologies to allow for the flexible and rapid identification, assessment, and modelling of OFG systems on a large scale. In this presentation, we share the preliminary work of the RESCUE project in exploring methods for the rapid and semi-automated detection of OFG from well logs, machine learning driven interpretation of seismic reflection data, and integrated porosity/permeability determinations from seismic attributes and well logs. The ultimate goal of this work will be to allow for the rapid generation of large-scale reservoir models, facilitating the dynamic modelling of high resolution and massive OFG systems with Parallel MODFLOW6.

How to cite: Phethean, J. J. J., Li, Z., Bertoni, C., and Lu, Y.: Rapid ML and semi-automated methods for large-scale subsurface data interpretation and reservoir modelling: Applications for offshore freshened groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4291, 2025.

EGU25-6995 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.2

The Role of Groundwater Drought on Impacting Socio-economics in Germany 

Zhenyu Wang, Mayra Daniela Peña Guerrero, Jan Sodoge, Christian Siebert, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Ralf Merz, and Larisa Tarasova

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are increasing stress on groundwater resources, even in generally water-rich areas like Germany, posing significant threats to socio-economic and ecological systems. As the perception of groundwater impacts is often slow and implicit, it results in limited understanding of groundwater drought impacts on socio-economics. To investigate these impacts, we use a unique biweekly dataset of 28,540 shallow and deep groundwater observations from 1950 to 2022 collated from German water authorities. We thoroughly check data quality by conducting outlier tests based on local outlier factor and dynamic time warping, assessing homogeneity of time series by identifying abrupt level shifts and imputing short periods (i.e., 14 days) of missing data by linear interpolation. Based on the reliable dataset, we identify groundwater drought periods along with their severity, duration, and spatial extent. We then link these drought periods to a multi-sectoral drought impact dataset based on newspaper articles from 2000 to 2022 [Sodoge et al., 2023] at a national scale, allowing us to investigate how groundwater drought contributes to socio-economic and ecological impacts (e.g., agriculture, forestry, livestock, wildfires). The results from this study are expected to differentiate the impacts of groundwater drought from other hydrometeorological droughts, provide insights into the long-term impacts of droughts, and help coordinate groundwater resources management and policy development at a national level.

Sodoge, J., C. Kuhlicke, and M. M. de Brito (2023), Automatized spatio-temporal detection of drought impacts from newspaper articles using natural language processing and machine learning, Weather and Climate Extremes, 41, 100574.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Peña Guerrero, M. D., Sodoge, J., Siebert, C., de Brito, M. M., Merz, R., and Tarasova, L.: The Role of Groundwater Drought on Impacting Socio-economics in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6995, 2025.

EGU25-7247 | Orals | HS2.5.2

A Brazilian groundwater dataset for advancing integrated water surface and groundwater management  

Edson Wendland, José Gescilam S. M. Uchôa, Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira, André S. Ballarin, Antônio A. Meira Neto, Didier Gastmans, Jamil A. A. Anache, Scott Jasechko, and Ying Fan

Groundwater plays a crucial role in meeting both human and ecosystem water needs. Its importance is expected to grow due to increasing water demand and the impacts of climate change on surface water resources, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, where irrigated agricultural expansion continues to intensify. However, limitations in the spatio-temporal coverage of groundwater monitoring networks constrain our understanding of surface–groundwater interaction dynamics. Here, we present a groundwater well dataset for Brazil. It encompasses compiled and standardized well data from Geological Survey of Brazil projects. The harmonized dataset, which was validated by the Geological Survey of Brazil, underwent rigorous quality assurance and quality control procedures to ensure accuracy, adhering to principles of transparency and data integrity. The dataset includes over 351,000 wells spanning from the early 1900s to 2024, including 472 monitoring wells with daily water level measurements from 2010 to 2024. In addition to information on well location, primary use, and static water level, the dataset includes variables that can support integrated surface and groundwater management, such as distance to the nearest river, land use, and aquifer data. The potential applications of this dataset are wide-ranging. Here, we demonstrate two applications that can be replicated with other groundwater datasets. First, we compared well water levels with nearby river water levels to identify the direction of flow between Brazilian rivers and aquifers. The results indicated that over 55% of the analyzed wells in unconfined aquifers have water levels below those of the nearest river, suggesting that river water may seep into the underlying aquifer. Second, we applied the analytical depletion functions developed by Glover and Balmer to wells in unconfined aquifers to estimate streamflow depletion caused by groundwater pumping. The results suggested that approximately 9% of the analyzed rivers experience a streamflow depletion fraction exceeding 10% of their baseflow. These findings have the potential to enhance the integrated management of surface and groundwater resources in Brazil. Ultimately, we hope this accessible dataset fosters collaboration across the fields of groundwater hydrology, surface water hydrology, and water management.

How to cite: Wendland, E., Uchôa, J. G. S. M., Oliveira, P. T. S., Ballarin, A. S., Meira Neto, A. A., Gastmans, D., Anache, J. A. A., Jasechko, S., and Fan, Y.: A Brazilian groundwater dataset for advancing integrated water surface and groundwater management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7247, 2025.

EGU25-8020 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.2

Developing a set of large-scale 3D groundwater models using iMOD-WQ and global datasets – a pathway towards a new global groundwater model 

Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert H.P. Oude Essink, Jude King, and Marc F.P. Bierkens

Groundwater plays a crucial role in drinking water supply, agricultural and industrial production, and ecosystem stability worldwide. Numerical modelling has been applied in past decades to better understand the groundwater flow patterns and future threats to preserving groundwater head levels and quality facing both anthropogenic and natural threats (i.e. aquifer overexploitation and climate change impacts). Most groundwater models focus on local to regional scale groundwater systems, covering areas up to 10,000 km2 and relying on local data to set up and calibrate the groundwater model. However, in recent years several attempts have been made to build a global groundwater model based on global datasets and using a combination of high-performance computing and parallel numerical code. One of the main limitations of this approach is the simplified schematization of hydrogeological heterogeneity in these groundwater models.

Therefore, this work aims to increase the realism and complexity of the hydrogeological schematizations of continental to global-scale groundwater models. To this end, we divide the globe into large-scale groundwater regions and apply a novel approach to estimate the regional-scale hydrogeological makeup of large-scale groundwater models. Three main lithological layers are defined, the most recently deposited unconsolidated sediments represent the top model layer while the second layer consists of older unconsolidated sediments. The third lithological layer consists of sedimentary rock formations, whose depth and type are defined from available global datasets (e.g. GLiM and CRUST 1.0). Additionally, the ArchPy Python library is used to further split these three lithological layers into several sub-layers representing the heterogeneous conditions (e.g. clay or sandy sub-layers). The resulting geological model is then used as a base to build a groundwater and variable density flow model, set up with the parallel iMOD-WQ code. This allows us to simulate complex large-scale groundwater processes with extensive amounts of active model cells and thus provide a better understanding of large-scale groundwater flow patterns. In the next steps, these large-scale groundwater models can be further improved by incorporating local data to create more accurate geological models and to calibrate the groundwater model input parameters.

The presented methodology was applied to create a groundwater model spanning the Australian continent, Papua New Guinea island and the continental shelf connecting these two landmasses. By applying this methodology to other large-scale groundwater regions around the world we can eventually create a new global groundwater model with higher and more realistic hydrogeological complexity and thus provide valuable insight into global groundwater flow patterns and input into Earth system models where groundwater processes are often largely simplified or neglected.

How to cite: Zamrsky, D., Oude Essink, G. H. P., King, J., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Developing a set of large-scale 3D groundwater models using iMOD-WQ and global datasets – a pathway towards a new global groundwater model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8020, 2025.

EGU25-10233 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.2

Human activities dominate groundwater level trends across England 

Qidong Fang, A S M Mostaquimur Rahman, Thorsten Wagener, and Francesca Pianosi

Groundwater is an indispensable part of the global water cycle and an essential water source for domestic, industrial and agricultural use. In England, groundwater is responsible for approximately 30% of public water supply and more than 75% in the most densely populated and water-stressed Southeast. Here, using a new open-access groundwater levels dataset made available by the Environment Agency, we analyse the trends for 2092 stations across England with record lengths ranging from 9 to 189 years. We show that about half of the stations are experiencing a long-term trend or a sudden change and that the long-term trends are very spatially heterogeneous. We also investigate the potential drivers of these trends, and find that the distribution of trends is more likely connected to human activities than to climate or hydrogeological conditions. In particular, we find that stations showing a slow declining trend are concentrated in areas of high irrigation intensity, while stations showing a slow increasing trend are concentrated in densely populated areas. Our results demonstrate that temporal and spatial variability of groundwater trends is dominated by anthropogenic factors.

How to cite: Fang, Q., Rahman, A. S. M. M., Wagener, T., and Pianosi, F.: Human activities dominate groundwater level trends across England, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10233, 2025.

EGU25-13979 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Assessment of groundwater contamination risks from shale gas development in the Northern Appalachian Basin, USA 

Mario Soriano, Cathy Wang, David Van Velden, Shuqi Lin, Katie Baker, Joshua Warren, James Saiers, and Reed Maxwell

The expansion of unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD), made possible by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale formations, has fostered economic benefits in the United States (US), increasing domestic energy supplies and exports for international markets. At the same time, local concerns about risks posed by this industry on the environment and public health persist, especially regarding the potential contamination of drinking water in communities that depend on aquifers for daily use. Quantifying such risks at large scales has been difficult due to spatiotemporal monitoring constraints and challenges in impact attribution. Here, we develop a physically based framework to assess groundwater contamination risks from UOGD in a 300,000-sq km region encompassing three states in the Northern Appalachian Basin, US (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia). The region is home to thousands of unconventional wells drilled into the Marcellus and Utica-Point Pleasant Shale, as well as over 4 million residents served by domestic groundwater wells. Our framework integrates publicly available geospatial data with groundwater flow and solute transport modeling. We employed an ensemble calibration approach to derive multiple realizations of model parameters tuned to minimize residuals between simulation outputs and available hydrologic observations. For each realization, forward particle tracking simulations from UOGD well locations were performed to simulate spills and delineate advective transport pathways towards drinking water receptors. Ensemble simulation results were then translated into quantitative metrics of contamination risk. We illustrate how the framework can be applied both ex post, to establish physics-driven pathways between UOGD sources and observed well-water impairments, and ex ante, to identify priority areas for enhanced monitoring and protection. The assessment framework can be used to evaluate risks associated with multiple contaminant sources distributed across large regions.

How to cite: Soriano, M., Wang, C., Van Velden, D., Lin, S., Baker, K., Warren, J., Saiers, J., and Maxwell, R.: Assessment of groundwater contamination risks from shale gas development in the Northern Appalachian Basin, USA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13979, 2025.

EGU25-15196 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

How does groundwater affect river flow in Europe? 

Mira Anand and Wouter Berghuijs

Groundwater plays an important role in river flow, but groundwater and river flow dynamics have often been considered separately, particularly at large scales. In recent years there has been an increased focus on understanding the influence of groundwater on river flow across different geographies, with the timing and magnitude of this relationship varying between locations and across time. Despite this, finding clear evidence of the specific influence of groundwater on river flow is challenging as no method can fully resolve their relationship. We seek to better understand the role of groundwater in river flow across Europe using data from thousands of catchments. This analysis includes investigation into timescales of catchment memory and the correlation of baseflow conditions to annual and seasonal river flow. We further investigate the spatial nature of these elements, including how these are linked to local catchment properties and the regional associations and larger patterns across catchments.

How to cite: Anand, M. and Berghuijs, W.: How does groundwater affect river flow in Europe?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15196, 2025.

EGU25-15364 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Data-based global groundwater use for irrigation in CLM5: hotspots and sustainability implications 

Manas Ranjan Panda and Yeonjoo Kim

Abstract

Groundwater withdrawal from confined aquifers is a critical source for irrigation. However, over the past few decades, unsustainable practices have persisted in many large river basins to ensure food security and sustain livelihoods. The current approach to represent the actual groundwater withdrawal in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is limited, posing challenges to effective groundwater management in irrigation. We integrated global datasets on observed groundwater consumptive use into the CESM coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM5) to address this. These datasets were taken from a published groundwater data inventory for 15,038 national and subnational administrative units globally and reconstructed at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. We evaluated the model’s simulated value against authoritative datasets, including CGWB (for India) and USGS (for the US), to confirm the accuracy of our approach. For instance, in the Central High Plains of the US, the controlled simulation estimated 10 km³ of groundwater use, whereas the experimental setup showed 16.5 km³, and the reported value from the USGS is 18 km³ for 2015. Our global simulation results showed a 28% increase in annual groundwater use for irrigation compared to the controlled irrigation simulation (422.4 km³ vs. 304.5 km³) run for a period of 15 years from 2001 to 2015. Notable cumulative groundwater use differences were observed in 2012 (146 km³), 2011, and 2005 (141 km³ each). Based on the results we identified over 15 major hotspot basins, defined as regions where a majority of grids exhibit a high groundwater abstraction percentage as compared to surface water irrigation. Furthermore, to achieve a sustainable solution we investigated substituting high-water-demand crops with low-water-requirement crops in hotspot regions and simulated groundwater management scenarios for irrigation. Our study provides critical insights into groundwater depletion issues in hotspot basins, highlighting the interconnected dynamics of climate, water resources, and irrigation. These findings contribute to the development of more sustainable water management strategies on a global scale.

Keywords: Irrigation water use, Earth system model, Simulation period, Sustainability

Acknowledgment

This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea, funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning (RS-2024-00456724), and Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through the R&D Programs for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis, and Water Management Program for Drought funded by the Korean Ministry of Environment (MOE) (RS-2023-00218873 and RS-2023-00231944).

How to cite: Panda, M. R. and Kim, Y.: Data-based global groundwater use for irrigation in CLM5: hotspots and sustainability implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15364, 2025.

EGU25-16809 | Orals | HS2.5.2

Mapping the groundwater depth in Africa at high resolution (1 km²) based on the Parflow model and machine learning 

Thierry Pellarin, Alexandre Zoppis, Pedro Arboleda Obando, and Jean-Martial Cohard

Groundwater depth is the result of a balance between climatic conditions (rainfall, temperature, radiation, etc.), topography (slope and proximity of a river), land use, soil and subsoil characteristics (hydrodynamic parameters), and potential exploitation by man.

In order to better understand the evolution of water resources in Africa, the ParFlow-CLM model (Maxwell et al. 2015) was used to provide at high resolution simulation (1 km²) over West Africa (3.5 million km²). This simulation was obtained after a long period of groundwater equilibration using a simplified version of the Parflow model with a monthly time step, and forced by the variable P-ETR (rainfall minus evapotranspiration). Simulation started with a 30 m water table depth everywhere and equilibrium was reached after a few tens of hydrological years in the Sudanian part and 1700 years in the Sahelian part close to the Sahara. The depths of the water table obtained range from 1-2 m to 85 m below the surface. This preliminary operation has a high numerical cost and required just over 1,000,000 hCPUs over 2,560 cores.

In order to reduce computing time and allow modelling of water table depths over the whole of Africa (30.5 million km²), a method based on artificial intelligence (AI) has been applied, following the work of Tran et al. (2021) and Bennett et al. (2024), to reproduce the operation of ParFlow and allow computing times of the order of 1000x less than physical modelling. The approach consists of conducting the automatic learning of the AI on sub-regions of the Parflow simulation, and then evaluating the relevance of the results on other regions.

In this presentation, we show how AI can be used to estimate the equilibrium groundwater depths simulated by the Parflow model over West Africa, while drastically reducing the numerical cost. We also show the performance of this methodology for mapping groundwater depths over the whole of Africa using networks of piezometers and village wells.

Bennett, A., Tran, H., De la Fuente, L., Triplett, A., Ma, Y., Melchior, P., et al. (2024). Spatio‐temporal machine learning for regional to continental scale terrestrial hydrology. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004095. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004095

Maxwell R.M., L. E. Condon, and S. J. Kollet (2015). A high-resolution simulation of groundwater and surface water over most of the continental US with the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow v3. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 923–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-923-2015

Tran, H., Leonarduzzi, E., De la Fuente, L., Hull, R. B., Bansal, V., Chennault, C., et al. (2021). Development of a deep learning emulator for a distributed groundwater–surface water model: ParFlow‐ML. Water, 13(23), 3393. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233393

How to cite: Pellarin, T., Zoppis, A., Arboleda Obando, P., and Cohard, J.-M.: Mapping the groundwater depth in Africa at high resolution (1 km²) based on the Parflow model and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16809, 2025.

EGU25-16853 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Spatiotemporal analysis of surface water and groundwater resources in Rajasthan, India 

Namrata Sankhla and Parmeshwar Udmale

Unsustainable groundwater extraction and use is a significant issue in India's arid and semi-arid regions, where surface water is scarce. According to the Central Ground Water Board 2023, groundwater accounts for nearly 62% of irrigation water, serving as a primary source for irrigation and domestic supply. Rajasthan, characterised by its arid and semi-arid climate, faces significant challenges in groundwater management due to increasing water demand, climate variability, and unsustainable extraction practices. The western region is most affected by arid climate and low rainfall, varying from 250 mm to 650 mm annually. Expanding agriculture strains limited freshwater resources in the state, shifting the state's dependency on groundwater and leading to excess groundwater withdrawal (the stage of groundwater development is 148.17% in CGWB report, 2023). This study analyses spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall, temperature, surface water resources and groundwater level fluctuations, as well as water demand (including water demand for agriculture) in the state using finer-scale data. The study also reviews current surface and groundwater resources related policies designed to address water scarcity challenges in the state.

 

 

How to cite: Sankhla, N. and Udmale, P.: Spatiotemporal analysis of surface water and groundwater resources in Rajasthan, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16853, 2025.

EGU25-17713 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

GROW: A Global Time Series Dataset for Large-Sample Groundwater Studies 

Annemarie Bäthge, Claudia Ruz Vargas, Gunnar Lischeid, Raoul Collenteur, Mark Cuthbert, Jan Fleckenstein, Martina Flörke, Inge de Graaf, Sebastian Gnann, Andreas Hartmann, Xander Huggings, Nils Moosdorf, Yoshihide Wada, Thorsten Wagener, and Robert Reinecke

Groundwater is a central component of social-ecological systems. However, our understanding of how it is dynamically interlinked with the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere is limited. Existing datasets lack features that enable us to better understand groundwater functions and how they are affected by anthropogenic change. Specifically, there remains no large-scale groundwater dataset that provides analysis-ready groundwater time series alongside groundwater-associated variables and attributes. In the pursuit of understanding the planet's groundwater dynamics, we present GROW (global GROundWater analysis package). This user-friendly, quality-controlled dataset combines groundwater depth and level time series from around the world with associated social-ecological variables. GROW is designed to enable large-sample spatio-temporal groundwater analysis without much further preprocessing. The dataset contains more than 180,000 time series from 41 countries – whereby over 90 % of the time series are from either North America, Australia or Europe - in a daily, monthly, or yearly temporal resolution. Most of them are between 10 and 20 years long, from 01/1888 to 04/2024, and have a median depth to the water table of 8 metres. Groundwater data is paired with a total of 37 time series or attributes of meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, botanical, and anthropogenic variables (e.g., precipitation, ground elevation, aquifer type, NDVI, land use). More than 20 data flags about well features (e.g., location coordinates and license), as well as time series characteristics (e.g., gap fraction or length), simplify a quick data filtering tailored to specific needs. GROW provides an essential foundation understanding large-scale groundwater processes and provides a robust resource for calibrating and validating models that address groundwater dynamics in social-ecological systems. Gaining an enhanced insight in these processes is essential for managing groundwater resources and ensuring their long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Bäthge, A., Ruz Vargas, C., Lischeid, G., Collenteur, R., Cuthbert, M., Fleckenstein, J., Flörke, M., de Graaf, I., Gnann, S., Hartmann, A., Huggings, X., Moosdorf, N., Wada, Y., Wagener, T., and Reinecke, R.: GROW: A Global Time Series Dataset for Large-Sample Groundwater Studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17713, 2025.

EGU25-17960 | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Spatial prediction of geogenic manganese in Southeast Asian groundwater 

Joel Podgorski and Michael Berg

Manganese (Mn) is a highly abundant element in the Earth’s crust that can become enriched in groundwater through reductive dissolution of Mn-containing minerals. Although an essential trace element for humans, manganese poses a health threat mainly in the form of neurotoxicity when consumed in high quantities. Mn has thus far received little attention, particularly in comparison to the other geogenic contaminants of arsenic and fluoride. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently lowered the guideline from 400 µg/l to 80 µg/l, but it is not known in how many regions of the world the new level is exceeded, let alone how many people are exposed.

We have therefore collected thousands of manganese measurements from Southeast Asia and used machine learning (ML) modelling to investigate the factors related to enrichment in groundwater. By using spatially continuous predictors, we are able to apply the ML model to produce prediction maps of manganese in groundwater. This upscaling of existing manganese measurements provides insights into managanese is nearby areas based on comparable values of the associated predictor variables. The maps are then compared with existing ones of arsenic and iron, which likewise get released in groundwater along the same sequence of biologically mediated redox reactions. By creating prediction maps of both the old and new WHO drinking water guidelines of 400 µg/l and 80 µg/l, respectively, the extent of the increase in areas and populations potentially exposed to hazardous Mn concentrations can be visualized and better appreciated. This serves to raise awareness of the impact that the reduction of the guideline value may pose.

How to cite: Podgorski, J. and Berg, M.: Spatial prediction of geogenic manganese in Southeast Asian groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17960, 2025.

EGU25-18494 | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

Analysis of groundwater levels in various hydrogeological environments in Sweden 

Alfredo Mendoza and Victor Järlefors

Recording and analysing groundwater level data can reveal the nature and extension of groundwater processes like flow direction and recharge magnitude. The analyses can even indicate the influence of precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff on the subsurface processes. However, such analyses are only possible when the recorded data cover relatively large periods of time at a suitable frequency.

This work presents a time series analysis of groundwater levels in wells located in typical hydrogeological settings in Sweden. The aim was to identify eventual trends in the natural variations of groundwater levels in relatively deep aquifers. The analysis included identifying possible correlations between groundwater levels, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Additionally, the intention was to evaluate the possible relationships between groundwater levels in deeper aquifers and level variations in surficial glacial deposits. The work addresses also the characteristics of the hydrogeological environments where the observation wells are located. The data was retrieved from twenty wells selected from a database available at the Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU). The results indicate varying correlations between groundwater levels, precipitation and evapotranspiration. This is probably explained by the different hydrogeological environments where the observation wells are located and the respective aquifers’ degree of confinement.

How to cite: Mendoza, A. and Järlefors, V.: Analysis of groundwater levels in various hydrogeological environments in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18494, 2025.

EGU25-20627 | ECS | Orals | HS2.5.2

A review of open data for studying global groundwater in social-ecological systems 

Xander Huggins and the initiative's co-authors

Global data have served an integral role in characterizing large-scale groundwater systems, identifying their sustainability challenges, and informing on socioeconomic and ecological dimensions of groundwater. These insights have revealed groundwater as a dynamic component of both the water cycle and social-ecological systems, leading to an expansion in groundwater science that increasingly focuses on interactions between groundwater with ecological, socioeconomic, and Earth systems. This shift presents many opportunities that are conditional on broader, more interdisciplinary system conceptualizations, models, and methods that require the integration of a greater diversity of data in contrast to conventional hydrogeological investigations. Here, we identify and review over 140 global open access datasets and dataset collections that span elements of the hydrosphere, biosphere, climate, lithosphere, food systems, governance, management, in addition to other human dimensions and socioeconomic systems relevant to groundwater science. This initiative offers a reference of existing data for use in interdisciplinary groundwater assessments, and summarizes these data across the primary system to which the dataset relates, spatial resolution, temporal range, data type, generation method, level of groundwater representation, and institutional location of lead authorship. At present, our review includes 15 groundwater datasets, 23 datasets explicitly linked with groundwater, and 106 datasets with implicit or potential groundwater connections. The majority of datasets are temporally static, and we find that temporally dynamic data availability peaked over the 2000-2010 decade and has declined since. Furthermore, only a small fraction of temporally dynamic data are explicitly linked to groundwater. We find that most groundwater datasets are generated by a small subset of countries, including the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada and that many countries facing acute groundwater sustainability challenges are not leading global data collection efforts. We conclude with four potential priorities for future global groundwater data collection, including: elevating regional and local scale perspectives, needs, and data in global initiatives, developing data sharing initiatives providing reciprocal benefits to data providers, more explicit representation of groundwater and uncertainty in global datasets, and the development of groundwater or freshwater system-wide essential variables.

How to cite: Huggins, X. and the initiative's co-authors: A review of open data for studying global groundwater in social-ecological systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20627, 2025.

EGU25-20689 | ECS | Posters on site | HS2.5.2

What If There Were No Mitigation? Counterfactual AI in Groundwater Sustainability Research 

Chetan Sharma, Hakan Başağaoğlu, Icen Yoosefdoost, Adrienne Wootten, Debarati Chakraborty-Reddy, F. Paul Bertetti, Ali Mirchi, and Debaditya Chakraborty

Groundwater systems are critical for ensuring food and water security while supporting vital ecosystem functions. However, the depletion of aquifers worldwide raises pressing concerns about the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite ongoing mitigation efforts, a significant gap remains in quantifying their effectiveness. This study focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas, evaluating the impact of current mitigation strategies on maintaining groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. By employing counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the pivotal question: “What would have occurred, and what might occur, in the absence of these mitigation measures?” This innovative approach provides valuable insights into historical impacts and future scenarios under intermediate- and high-emission climate pathways. By simulating scenarios without mitigation, our analysis highlights the tangible benefits of groundwater management strategies, demonstrating their critical role in enhancing climate resilience and ensuring the sustainability of aquifers.

How to cite: Sharma, C., Başağaoğlu, H., Yoosefdoost, I., Wootten, A., Chakraborty-Reddy, D., Bertetti, F. P., Mirchi, A., and Chakraborty, D.: What If There Were No Mitigation? Counterfactual AI in Groundwater Sustainability Research, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20689, 2025.

EGU25-1051 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

A Kalman Filter approach for reducing uncertainty in Global Evapotranspiration: Advancing global water budget closure 

Shubham Goswami, Chirag Ternikar, Rajsekhar Kandala, Netra Pillai, Vivek Kumar Yadav, Abhishek Abhishek, Jisha Joseph, Subimal Ghosh, and Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global water cycle, influenced by both natural processes and human activities. However, existing ET products, based on hydrological models, satellite observations, and reanalysis data, often exhibit significant disagreements particularly in human-impacted regions. These discrepancies emerge as the major source of uncertainties in closing the water budget at global scale making it a complex and integrated challenge. To address this, researchers have adopted a water-budget based approach for estimating ET using multiple precipitation, runoff and terrestrial water storage change products, thereby ensuring water budget closure. However, this approach results in multiple estimates of ET with large uncertainties, where weighted average approach fails to reduce these uncertainties. To reduce these uncertainties, a novel Kalman filter-based framework is implemented in this study. It combines multiple water budget-based ET estimates to produce a robust, data-driven ET product (KF-ET) which significantly reduces uncertainty (less than 2 mm/month) while achieving the closest approximation of water budget closure. The performance of KF-ET is evaluated at global and basin scale, with comparisons to ERA5, Fluxcom, GLEAM, and WGHM products. Results demonstrate that KF-ET improves on existing products in terms of capturing the spatio-temporal variability in ET with lower uncertainties. KF-ET aids in understanding of inter-annual and seasonal ET variability, especially in regions with complex hydrological dynamics, such as the Ganges and Amazon River Basin. Furthermore, sensitivity of KF-ET to human-driven changes, including irrigation effects, is highlighted through case study in the Ganges where it accounts for flood irrigation during the early stages of crop growth. KF-ET is also consistent with energy-limited nature of ET in Amazon River basin because of abundant precipitation and deep-root water access for trees. This Kalman Filter approach provides a promising framework for synthesizing high-quality, data-driven global ET estimates that incorporate both natural and anthropogenic influences, offering significant steps towards closing the water budget globally. KF-ET can be accessed at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23800692 (Goswami et al., 2024)

Reference:
Goswami, S., Rajendra Ternikar, C., Kandala, R., Pillai, N. S., Kumar Yadav, V., Abhishek, Joseph, J., Ghosh, S., & Dutt Vishwakarma, B. (2024). Water budget-based evapotranspiration product captures natural and human-caused variability. Environmental Research Letters, 19(9), 094034. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad63bd

Goswami, S., Ternikar, C.R., Kandala, R., Pillai, N.S., et al. (2023) Evapotransiration using Kalman filter on water budget. [Online]. Available from: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.23800692.v3 [Accessed: 2 December 2024].

How to cite: Goswami, S., Ternikar, C., Kandala, R., Pillai, N., Yadav, V. K., Abhishek, A., Joseph, J., Ghosh, S., and Vishwakarma, B. D.: A Kalman Filter approach for reducing uncertainty in Global Evapotranspiration: Advancing global water budget closure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1051, 2025.

EGU25-2975 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Quantitative evaluation of alternative formulations of the watertable fluctuation method of recharge estimation 

Amy Becke, Cristina Solórzano-Rivas, and Adrian Werner

Accurate estimation of groundwater recharge is critical for ensuring the sustainable management of water resources. The watertable fluctuation method (WTFM) is widely used to estimate distributed groundwater recharge in unconfined aquifers, yet its implementation varies significantly, particularly in the extrapolation of recession curves to estimate groundwater discharge during recharge events. Despite the method’s popularity, the accuracy of its most commonly applied variations has not been systematically compared. This study evaluates six WTFM variants by applying them to 1,000 model-generated hydrographs to identify the most accurate approach. Recharge estimation error is characterised according to model input parameters transmissivity, specific yield, recharge, aquifer length, and distance between the observation well and the groundwater discharge boundary.

Results show that the RISE method, which neglects ongoing discharge during recharge events, performed the poorest, underestimating gross recharge by an average of 22%. The commonly used exponential local recession curve method also underestimated recharge, with an average error of 14%. In contrast, the fixed-timestep master recession curve method emerged as the most accurate, underestimating recharge by only 4% on average. This method’s assumption of higher discharge rates during a rising watertable aligns more closely with Darcy’s Law if water bodies receiving groundwater discharge have approximately constant water levels. Notably, for all WTFM variants tested, the greatest range of error was found to occur near groundwater discharge boundaries, where aquifers with high transmissivity produced the greatest underestimation of recharge.

These findings provide valuable insights for improving the accuracy and reliability of WTFM applications in groundwater recharge investigations. This study offers actionable insights for hydrologists and water managers seeking robust recharge assessment methods.

How to cite: Becke, A., Solórzano-Rivas, C., and Werner, A.: Quantitative evaluation of alternative formulations of the watertable fluctuation method of recharge estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2975, 2025.

Evapotranspiration (ET) returns more than half of the precipitation into the atmosphere, playing an important role in the water cycle. Past research indicates that global ET shows an increasing trend under climate change. However, the dominant drivers of ET differ between climate zones, plants also react differently under different environmental conditions. Research on the sensitivity of ET to combinations of multiple environmental factors remains limited. We focus on the Gaoping River Basin located in southern Taiwan, using the 2-kilometer gridded ET and meteorological data, including Temperature (T), Solar radiation (SR) and Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) from 1980 to 2021 produced by Taiwan Climate Change Projection Information and Adaption knowledge Platform (TCCIP), combined with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to develop the model. We divide the data into bins based on the percentiles of environmental factors to represent various environmental conditions, the sensitivity of ET to changes in environmental factors was calculated in each bin. The objectives of this study include (1) Identifying the dominant drivers of ET within Gaoping River Basin; (2) Examining whether the sensitivity of ET to environmental factors exhibits seasonal or interannual variations; and (3) Assessing the potential impacts of changes in environmental factors on ET under climate change. Preliminary results show that ET is most sensitive to T within Gaoping River, and the sensitivity of ET to SR varies between seasons.

How to cite: Chen, S.-E., Yeh, H.-H., Chiu, C.-C., and Lee, T.-Y.: The potential impacts of environmental factors change on evapotranspiration in the Gaoping River Basin, Taiwan: A sensitivity analysis using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4806, 2025.

EGU25-8447 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Glacier lagged response dominated the Himalayan water storage depletion 

Yiguang Zou, Yuheng Yang, and Xixi Lu

The depletion of terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Himalayas has profound implications for water security, affecting billions of people downstream. However, the mechanisms behind this depletion remain highly debated. In this study, we update the water storage budget for the Himalayas, revealing that nearly all TWS depletion (−11.12 ± 1.26 Gt yr⁻¹) during 20032016 were from glacier mass loss (−11.69 ± 0.32 Gt yr⁻¹). The glacier evolution modeling shows that 75 ± 13% of this glacier mass loss would have occurred even if climate conditions had stabilized during this period. This lagged response to the imbalance with previous climatic conditions is modulated by the long glacier response time (the time required to reach a new equilibrium after a climatic perturbation), with a mean value of 45.6 years across the Himalayas. Our findings indicate that the observed TWS depletion is primarily a lagged response to past climate change, rather than a direct consequence of concurrent climatic conditions as previously claimed. This study reconciles existing debates by emphasizing the critical role of multi-decadal glacier response time in TWS dynamics over glaciated regions, implying that current climatic variations will continue to influence TWS changes in the coming decades, even if no further climate change. 

How to cite: Zou, Y., Yang, Y., and Lu, X.: Glacier lagged response dominated the Himalayan water storage depletion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8447, 2025.

EGU25-9153 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Water Availability Assessment in a Data-Scarce Region: Application to the District of Southern Italy 

Felice Daniele Pacia, Pasquale Perrini, Angelo Avino, Awais Naeem Sarwar, Afshin Jahanshahi, Pasquale Coccaro, Luciana Giuzio, Vera Corbelli, Mauro Fiorentino, Vito Iacobellis, and Salvatore Manfreda

Hydrological modeling is an essential tool for understanding and describing hydrological processes, serving as a cornerstone in the quantification and management of water resources. The major challenge of hydrological modeling lies in model calibration, which becomes particularly demanding in large-scale applications and in data-scarce regions.

Data scarcity is a significant constraint in modeling, complicating the calibration process and reducing model accuracy. Generally, the availability of high-quality streamflow measurements is considered vital for the calibration and evaluation of hydrological models. However, in many scenarios data may be of low quality, incomplete, or entirely unavailable, as it happens in many areas of the National Territory, including regions in Southern Italy where the streamflow observations are limited, fragmented and discontinuous. Most hydrometric stations record only water levels, often without updated flow rating curves, making reliable hydrological model calibration a challenging task. 

In order to overcome such limitations, we compared three different setups to get the best parametrization during the model calibration. At first, we used the biggest hydrological basin (Volturno river catchment) of the entire district, as representative of the regional study area. The calibration of the model was done for the representative catchment, and the parameters were applied at the regional scale.   Then, we used reconstructed streamflow measurements derived from water balance of nine artificial reservoirs as a reference for a multiobjective calibration. At last, we used remote sensing data, such as soil moisture maps, as a reference for calibrating the model. Multi-objective functions, focusing on high-flows and low-flows aspects of the time series, were used in automatic optimization based on genetic algorithms to perform space-time operational testing of the large-scale model. The reference hydrological model used is the DREAM model (Distributed model for Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Antecedent Soil Moisture simulation), applied to the vast area within the jurisdiction of the Southern Apennine District Basin Authority.

These calibration procedures have been compared exploiting available data. The study provides guidance in the use of limited data in order to identify the most suitable approach to build a reliable model calibration of the entire district and assess the impact of climate change on water resources in future climate scenarios. The encouraging performances of the regional model motivate the extension of the present approach to other data-scarce regions.

How to cite: Pacia, F. D., Perrini, P., Avino, A., Sarwar, A. N., Jahanshahi, A., Coccaro, P., Giuzio, L., Corbelli, V., Fiorentino, M., Iacobellis, V., and Manfreda, S.: Water Availability Assessment in a Data-Scarce Region: Application to the District of Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9153, 2025.

EGU25-9965 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Incorporating Artificial Water Transfers from the Tigris to the Euphrates into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model 

Abdullah Hasan, Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari, and Petra Döll

The Tigris-Euphrates River Basin (TERB) is a transboundary water system of critical importance in West Asia, spanning Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Its water resources support agriculture, industries, and hydropower, and water flows and storages are significantly affected by human interventions, including dam construction, water abstractions, and artificial water transfers. While a few global hydrological models, such as the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), include human interventions like reservoirs, as well as surface water and groundwater use, including water transfers between adjacent grid cells, long-distance artificial water transfers, are not simulated except by the global hydrological model H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2018). H08 includes the location of 55 aqueducts but all outside of the TERB. However, they assume, for lack of information on transferred water flows, that water flows correspond to the demand for surface water abstractions in grid cells connected to the aqueduct until the river flow at the origin of the aqueduct becomes zero. This assumption certainly does not represent most water transfers well. In this study, for the first time, we modeled long-distance artificial water transfer in WGHM as the Tigris-to-Euphrates water transfer via Lake Tharthar is crucial for the water flows and storages in the TERB. Based on an analysis of observed streamflow data for 2002-2021 at the Baghdad station (downstream of the lake on the Tigris) and the volume of water transferred to the lake from the Tigris at the Samarra site, we developed a diversion algorithm. The algorithm directs streamflow above a given threshold (534 m3/sec) from December to July to Lake Tharthar to maintain stable streamflow at the Baghdad station, consistent with observations. Lake Tharthar is treated as a regulated lake instead of an inland sink, with its outflow transferred to the Euphrates River. Results demonstrate that simulating water transfers between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers improves the accuracy of streamflow simulations at the Baghdad station. The mean simulated streamflow at the Baghdad station for the standard WGHM simulation was 1052 m³/sec, which, after modification, was reduced to 561 m³/sec, bringing it much closer to the mean observed value of 525 m³/sec. Additionally, the variability of the simulated streamflow in relation to the observed values (the ratio of the standard deviation of the simulated streamflow to the standard deviation of the observed streamflow (117 m³/sec)) improved from 5.4 for the standard WGHM to 2.4 for the modified simulation. These findings highlight the necessity of integrating artificial water transfers into hydrological models to better capture the alteration of natural water flows and storages.

References

Hanasaki, N., Yoshikawa, S., Pokhrel, Y., & Kanae, S. (2018). A global hydrological simulation to specify the sources of water used by humans. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(2), 789–817. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-789-2018

How to cite: Hasan, A., Hosseini-Moghari, S.-M., and Döll, P.: Incorporating Artificial Water Transfers from the Tigris to the Euphrates into the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9965, 2025.

EGU25-11531 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Which PET formulas for my rainfall-runoff modelling? 

Giovanni Selleri, Mattia Neri, and Elena Toth

The combined effect of evaporation and transpiration plays a key role in the water balance for hydrological modelling at catchment scale.
However, the direct measurement of these processes is very challenging, and a formula is typically used to estimate the potential evapo-transpiration (PET), i.e. the maximum rate of water leaving the catchment to the atmosphere in ideal conditions.
Many rainfall-runoff models take the PET as input, and improving the quality of the PET data can directly enhance the performance of the model.
Moreover, PET is a crucial factor to characterize the hydrological behavior and to find similarities between basins.

Many PET formulas have been proposed and several of them are commonly used with excellent results, but the choice is up to the single researcher, that each time must decide based on the input data available and their personal preferences.

Here we analyze the differences between formulas in the estimated values, obtained for a large set of Caravan catchments (Kratzert et al., 2023), in order to give insights on which PET formulas could be more suited for the use in rainfall-runoff modelling.

We selected a group of PET formulas among the most used in literature, with diverse types of methods and required inputs.
The data to feed the formulas were taken from global datasets, derived from reanalysis products: the availability in such sets of temperature, radiation, pressure, humidity and wind allows us to include in the study the FAO Penman-Monteith formula, that we used as benchmark. Additionally, we selected some temperature and/or radiation-based formulas, which represent important tools for data-scarce applications and large-scale hydrology.

For every catchment we calculated the daily time series of PET for each formula, then we analyzed and compared the aggregated yearly and seasonal mean values.
We illustrated the main differences and distribution variations between catchments at local and global scale, highlighting climatological patterns and how the choice of the PET formula affects the catchment aridity classification in the Budyko curve.

References:

Kratzert, F., Nearing, G., Addor, N., Erickson, T., Gauch, M., Gilon, O., Gudmundsson, L., Hassidim, A., Klotz, D., Nevo, S., Shalev, G., and Matias, Y.: Caravan – A global community dataset for large-sample hydrology. Sci Data 10, 61 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-01975-w

How to cite: Selleri, G., Neri, M., and Toth, E.: Which PET formulas for my rainfall-runoff modelling?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11531, 2025.

EGU25-11722 | PICO | HS2.5.3

Low water balance consistency of state-of-the-art hydrological datasets 

Hao Huang, Junguo Liu, Aifang Chen, and Rene Orth

Hydrological research benefits from a growing number and diversity of hydrological datasets. At the same time, the consistency across the increasing suite of datasets is unclear, limiting the comparability of findings derived with different datasets and variables. Here, we find overall low consistency of numerous state-of-the-art precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture datasets in terms of the water balance. Consistency is inferred between variations in soil moisture and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff, where datasets are combined with independent datasets representing the remaining water balance variables. Highest consistency in the case of precipitation datasets is generally found for satellite-based datasets, while gauge-based datasets performed better in Northern Hemisphere regions with dense in-situ observations. In the case of evapotranspiration, highest consistency is found for satellite-based and reanalysis datasets, and in the case of runoff for gauge-based and reanalysis datasets. Reanalysis soil moisture datasets that consider deep soil water dynamics show higher consistency than satellite-based or gauge-based datasets. Spatial variations of consistency are mostly related to aridity and temperature as they influence precipitation measurement quality. Soil moisture dataset consistency is additionally affected by vegetation cover. We find widespread increases in dataset consistency in the northern mid-latitudes during the study period, probably related to climate warming.

How to cite: Huang, H., Liu, J., Chen, A., and Orth, R.: Low water balance consistency of state-of-the-art hydrological datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11722, 2025.

EGU25-11891 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

Evaluating the Snow Module of the LISFLOOD Model with Remotely Sensed Snow Cover  

Valentina Premier, Francesca Moschini, Jesús Casado-Rodríguez, Davide Bavera, Carlo Marin, and Alberto Pistocchi

LISFLOOD is a comprehensive large-scale operational hydrological model widely used in Europe to simulate diverse hydrological processes, including snowmelt, which is handled through a degree-day-based snow module (Van Der Knijff et al., 2010). The snowmelt coefficient in this module is traditionally calibrated against discharge data. This study evaluates the performance of LISFLOOD’s current snow module and explores an alternative calibration approach based on snow cover area (SCA) observations. Nine hydrological basins across Europe located in Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, France, Spain, Slovakia, and Sweden were selected for this analysis. They represent a range of climatic and morphological characteristics, from mountainous regions such as the Alps and Pyrenees to the flatter terrains of Scandinavia. Their strong snow influence, with persistent snow cover for significant portions of the year, makes them ideal for assessing snow processes. 

First, we evaluated several operational satellite-based snow cover products. This included an intercomparison of data gaps and agreements, benchmarked against a novel product that integrates Sentinel-2 and MODIS datasets using gap-filling and downscaling techniques to achieve high temporal and spatial resolution (Premier et al., 2021). Next, the snowmelt coefficient was estimated on a pixel-wise basis by fitting the modeled snow cover fraction (SCF) -derived from snow water equivalent (SWE) in LISFLOOD - with observed satellite-based SCF. This involved an appropriate parametrization to convert SWE to SCF and an optimization routine to minimize errors between modeled and observed SCF. The resulting spatially distributed snowmelt coefficient represents a novelty compared to the current LISFLOOD setup, where coefficients are uniform across subcatchments. 

Our findings show that LISFLOOD’s current configuration performs well when validated against independent satellite-based snow cover products. While the newly optimized snowmelt coefficients differ considerably from previously calibrated values, they do not introduce significant changes in terms of simulated discharge. However, notable effects are observed in the timing and magnitude of SWE and snowmelt processes, underscoring the potential for improved representation of snow dynamics in LISFLOOD. 

 

References

Premier, V., Marin, C., Steger, S., Notarnicola, C., & Bruzzone, L. (2021). A novel approach based on a hierarchical multiresolution analysis of optical time series to reconstruct the daily high-resolution snow cover area. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing14, 9223-9240.

Van Der Knijff, J. M., Younis, J., & De Roo, A. P. J. (2010). LISFLOOD: a GIS‐based distributed model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation. International Journal of Geographical Information Science24(2), 189-212.

How to cite: Premier, V., Moschini, F., Casado-Rodríguez, J., Bavera, D., Marin, C., and Pistocchi, A.: Evaluating the Snow Module of the LISFLOOD Model with Remotely Sensed Snow Cover , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11891, 2025.

Groundwater is a vital freshwater resource that sustains agriculture, domestic water supply and industrial growth, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions around the globe experiencing low rainfall.  Excessive groundwater abstraction for sustained crop production and water demand for the growing population has led to overexploitation of the freshwater resource globally. Multiple studies have reported significant groundwater depletion in major aquifers around the globe. It is imperative to monitor the availability groundwater at diverse spatial and temporal scales accurately to reduce the uncertainty in groundwater supply and formulate policies for sustainable groundwater resource management.

A major leap in the estimation of groundwater resource emerged after the launch of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Mission (GRACE) in 2002. Integration of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates from GRACE/GRACE FO and water storage components (surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) from global hydrological models are employed to monitor groundwater storage variability in major aquifers globally. However, uncertainties have been reported in the estimation of groundwater depletion, majorly due to the course resolution of GRACE TWS and model uncertainties at regional scales. Hence, it is important to identify the uncertainties in ancillary datasets employed to monitor groundwater variability from space.

In the present study, we evaluated long term trends in terrestrial and groundwater storage anomaly (2002-2023) over 4 major river basins of western India using three GRACE/GRACE FO mascon solutions – JPL, CSR and GSFC and computed groundwater storage anomalies using a combination of TWSA and Soil moisture estimates from multiple hydrological models – GLDAS Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), WaterGAP and ESA_CCI Combined data products. We further evaluated the performance of a global downscaled water storage anomaly product generated from self-supervised data assimilation. It was observed that the groundwater estimates from multi-temporal datasets showed uncertainties in long term trends when validated against in-situ groundwater observations. Further, heterogeneity in inter-basin groundwater variability was observed, indicating a need for estimation of water storage components at regional scale incorporating human intervention for accurate groundwater measurement. Our results highlight the importance of groundwater change estimation from earth observation and modelled hydrological components to insights into changing dynamics of groundwater in semi-arid river basins.

How to cite: Choubey, S., Chander, S., and Kumari, R.: Estimation of Groundwater Storage Variability over Major River Basins of Western India using Multi-Temporal Satellite Datasets and in-situ observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15859, 2025.

EGU25-15914 | PICO | HS2.5.3

Assessing the performance of pan-European CLM5 simulations in capturing long-term multivariate trends in land surface varaibles. 

Bibi S. Naz, Anne Springer, Christian Poppe Terán, Yorck Ewerdwalbesloh, Haojin Zhao, Lukas Jendges, Jan Martin Brockmann, Carsten Montzka, Buliao Guan, Visakh Sivaprasad, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen

Understanding long-term trends in Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) is important for predicting future climate impacts. This study investigates long-term trends in multiple land and climate variables, including evapotranspiration (ET), surface soil moisture (SM), snow cover (SC), snow water equivalent (SWE), total water storage (TWS) and streamflow along with variables influencing vegetation productivity, such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), gross primary production (GPP) and plant available water, to provide a comprehensive assessment of their changes and interactions. Using a combination of observational datasets, remote sensing products, and reanalysis data, we evaluate the performance of Community Land Model, version 5.0 (CLM5) in capturing these trends over the European continent during the past 33 years (1990 - 2022). Additionally, we present a multi-model ensemble of CLM5 simulations with different configurations (Prescribed vs. prognostic vegetation) and different model resolution (0.0275o vs. 0.11o) to assess uncertainties in capturing trends arising from varying model complexities. All model configurations are driven by the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and share consistent datasets for the static input datasets such as topography, land cover and soil properties. 

Our preliminary analysis shows that the CLM5 model captures the interannual variability in the hydrologic states and fluxes reasonably well for ET, SWE, SC and TWS, but overestimates surface SM to satellite-derived datasets. Model performance in capturing trends varies across variables: while decreasing trend direction in snowpack variables (SC and SWE) and TWS align with remote sensing observations, surface SM trends show opposite directions. We further explore whether these discrepancies arise from trends in climatic drivers (e.g., temperature and precipitation) or differences in model configurations.This study highlights the importance of a multivariate approach to trend analysis in improving our understanding of the recent states and changes in land surface variables.

 

How to cite: Naz, B. S., Springer, A., Terán, C. P., Ewerdwalbesloh, Y., Zhao, H., Jendges, L., Brockmann, J. M., Montzka, C., Guan, B., Sivaprasad, V., and Franssen, H.-J. H.: Assessing the performance of pan-European CLM5 simulations in capturing long-term multivariate trends in land surface varaibles., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15914, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15914, 2025.

Integrating multi-source remote sensing data with hydrological models presents significant challenges, primarily due to mismatches in spatial resolution between satellite observations and models, and spectral inconsistencies between model outputs and observations. These discrepancies stem from satellite mission sampling, the conversion of measured signals to the variables of interest, and processing steps like filtering to reduce noise. For instance, Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on mission (GRACE-FO) represent a vertical summation of all water stored on land, with a footprint of several hundred kilometers. Another example is Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) data from passive and active remote sensing missions, such as the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI), which reflects the moisture of the top few centimeters of soil at a spatial resolution of 25 km.

While large-scale hydrological models now target kilometer-level spatial resolution, their ability to represent climate-driven and anthropogenic changes remains limited. In this study, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian approach to merge GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS changes and ESA CCI’s SSM with the water storage outputs of a high-resolution hydrological model, while accounting for uncertainties in both observational data and model simulations. Our methodology aims to downscale GRACE/GRACE-FO observations and achieve vertical separation of GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS components. By refining the spatial and spectral alignment between observations and model results, this approach enhances the representation of individual water storage components, such as soil water and groundwater storage changes.

The proposed method involves several key steps to ensure data consistency within the multi-sensor fusion. First, all input datasets, including hydrological model outputs and remote sensing observations, are filtered to align their spectral signal contents. Then, a hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied to constrain all modeled and filtered TWS with GRACE/GRACE-FO and the SSM datasets. This is achieved by computing a temporal scaling factor that aligns the individual water storage compartments of the hydrological model with both observations. Finally, the residuals between filtered and unfiltered model outputs are incorporated to refine TWS estimates and enhance the downscaling process. The implementation and validation of the proposed approach are demonstrated using the W3RA hydrological model at a 10 km resolution over Europe. Model performance is evaluated by comparing updated groundwater and topsoil water estimates with other model outputs such as WGHM and independent observations. Results highlight the effectiveness of the hierarchical Bayesian method in resolving spectral and spatial mismatches. This study underscores the potential of advanced Bayesian techniques to enhance the utility of remote sensing data in hydrological applications.

How to cite: mehrnegar, N. and forootan, E.: How Can a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach Bridge the Gap Between Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data and Hydrological Models?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16974, 2025.

EGU25-17813 | PICO | HS2.5.3

Assessment of ten evapotranspiration estimates using a water balance approach – application to Madagascar. 

Rojin Alimohammad Nejad, Simon D. Carrière, Camille Ollivier, Ludovic Oudin, Albert Olioso, and Kristel Chanard

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in estimating groundwater recharge, which is critical to ensure water resource management, particularly in countries prone to difficult access to water such as Madagascar. This study estimates ten ET products derived from remote sensing (RS), land surface modeling (LSMs), and reanalysis methods. To evaluate the performance of these datasets, we use a water balance approach, comparing precipitation minus runoff (P−Q) at the catchment scale. This comparison covers nine catchments in Madagascar, focusing on humid and semi-humid regions over monthly to annual timescales from 2000 to 2014. We also take advantage of the GRACE/-FO satellite missions (2002–2023) to estimate large-scale variability in water storage. Analyses were performed at different spatial scales (basin level, bioclimatic zone level, and across the entire island) and various timescales (monthly, annual, and interannual). Results highlight significant differences in ET product performances. ERA5 (the fifth-generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis) and GLEAM (Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model) show the best performance overall. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) and GLDAS-CLSM (Global Land Data Assimilation System with the Community Land Surface Model) exhibit significant errors and biases. Understanding these differences requires addressing the uncertainties in the input data and the physical methods employed by each ET product. These results allow us to better understand the impact of extreme weather events (e.g. droughts and cyclones) over water and vegetation dynamics spatialized across Madagascar.

How to cite: Alimohammad Nejad, R., D. Carrière, S., Ollivier, C., Oudin, L., Olioso, A., and Chanard, K.: Assessment of ten evapotranspiration estimates using a water balance approach – application to Madagascar., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17813, 2025.

EGU25-18052 | ECS | PICO | HS2.5.3

High-Resolution (1km Daily) Potential Evapotranspiration Dataset Over Europe and the Mediterranean Region 

Senna Bouabdelli, Christian Massari, Martin Morlot, Mariapina Castelli, and Giuseppe Formetta

High-resolution climate data significantly enhance the accuracy and understanding of water budgets, particularly in mountainous regions. Evapotranspiration (ET), the largest terrestrial water flux, is a critical parameter for surface water modelling and monitoring climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture. Its influence is especially pronounced in Europe and the Mediterranean, recognized as climate change hotspots.

This study presents a high-resolution (1 km daily) Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) dataset, derived from a combination of ground-based and remote sensing data and adjusted with daily crop growth coefficients. Covering Europe and the Mediterranean region from 2004 to 2022, the dataset is validated through regional, basin, and local scales. Validation is performed using triple collocation metrics combining the PET-1km product, GLEAM (28 km) and hPET (11 km), as well as with daily measurements from 38 eddy covariance (EC) flux tower stations within the study domain. At the basin scale, the Adige River basin in the Italian Alps is modeled using the Adige Hydrological Digital Twin, incorporating PET-1 km as an input component.

Regional-scale validation highlights the superior performance of the PET-1 km dataset, achieving better results in 86.7% of the study area compared to GLEAM and hPET. Site-scale validation against EC measurements indicates a high correlation coefficient (0.82) and a low RMSE (1.08 mm/day). Basin-scale validation in the Adige basin reveals improved modelling of water cycle components compared to previous findings on the same study area.

This high-resolution PET dataset offers valuable insights for climate and hydrological studies, advancing water resource management and climate adaptation strategies in this crucial region.

How to cite: Bouabdelli, S., Massari, C., Morlot, M., Castelli, M., and Formetta, G.: High-Resolution (1km Daily) Potential Evapotranspiration Dataset Over Europe and the Mediterranean Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18052, 2025.

HS3 – Hydroinformatics

EGU25-526 | ECS | Orals | HS3.1 | Highlight

Shifting Mountain Flood Regimes under Global Warming 

Suraj Shah, Yi Liu, Seokhyeon Kim, Ashish Sharma, and Svenja Fischer

High Mountainous Areas (HMAs) with extensive snow cover presents considerable modelling challenges due to their intricate topography and data scarcity. However, these regions are particularly of concern as they are experiencing rapid warming, resulting in accelerated snowmelt along with more intense rainfall events, complicating the notion of flood typology that has existed for the region since long. Here, we present a comprehensive framework to evaluate projected changes in flood typology in HMAs for future relative to the Historical period. The results suggest that there will be a notable increase in rainfall-induced floods, particularly of the short-duration variety, coupled with a decrease in snowmelt-induced floods as the future periods advance. Additionally, there is a noticeable shift in the mean timing of floods, suggesting a delay in their occurrence. Although these results are specific to the three regions studied, similar changes will likely occur in other snow-dominated basins across HMAs. These insights could empower policymakers to make informed decisions and enhance regional risk assessment and management strategies.

How to cite: Shah, S., Liu, Y., Kim, S., Sharma, A., and Fischer, S.: Shifting Mountain Flood Regimes under Global Warming, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-526, 2025.

EGU25-795 | ECS | Orals | HS3.1

Budyko Curve as a Tool for Long-term Water Budget Calculation 

Yonca Cavus, Ebru Eris, Dilek Eren Akyuz, and Hafzullah Aksoy

Deficit in water budget has a negative effect on society, environment and economy. In order to mitigate these negative effects, it is important to known how precipitation falling on the basin is shared by streamflow, evapotranspiration, baseflow and infiltration; i.e., What is the share of precipitation transferred to flow, returned to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration or contributed to the basin storage system through infiltration? Sharing water resources among drinking and utility water, agriculture, animal husbandry, industry, tourism, etc., is necessary and important for the sustainability. In a simple water budget, the basic and traditional approach can be accompanied by the methods such as Budyko curve, a method that can be used in water budget calculation in hydrology. The Budyko curve consists of a nonlinear relationship between the evaporation rate and the dryness index and it defines the water- and energy-based limits of evapotranspiration. In this study, a water budget approach based on the Budyko curve is proposed by considering the monthly rainfall-runoff relation. Firstly, the aim of the study is to determine whether Kucuk Menderes River Basin in western Turkey complies with the Budyko curve; and if yes, secondly, whether it changes over time, and if it does, how it changes. The monthly total precipitation, and monthly average temperature ​​of meteorological stations and monthly average streamflow were used. Assuming that there will be no change in the basin water storage in the long-term, actual evapotranspiration will be taken as the difference between the streamflow discharge and precipitation, and the potential evapotranspiration will be calculated by the empirical Thornthwaite method. From the application on the upstream and downstream reaches, the river basin was found consistent with the Budyko framework in general. However, according to the calculations made by using the Budyko curve, higher flows than expected were obtained for the upstream reach and lower flows than expected for the downstream reach of the basin. Based on the results of the case study, the potential of Budyko curve as a method to use in planning and management of river basin was demonstrated. The study will also investigate the possibility of extending the use of the Budyko curve to ungauged or nested basins.

How to cite: Cavus, Y., Eris, E., Akyuz, D. E., and Aksoy, H.: Budyko Curve as a Tool for Long-term Water Budget Calculation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-795, 2025.

EGU25-2942 | Orals | HS3.1 | Highlight

Identification of dominant mechanisms for representing hydrological processes in catchment scale models 

Cristina Prieto, Dmitri Kavetski, Nataliya Le Vine, Fabrizio Fenicia, Andreas Scheidegger, and Claudia Vitolo

The identification of model mechanisms for representing hydrological (physical) process is a major scientific and practical problem in catchment scale hydrological modelling. We present a multiple hypothesis-testing approach to identify dominant hydrological mechanisms. The method combines: (i) Bayesian estimation of posterior probabilities of individual hydrological mechanisms given an ensemble of hydrological model structures; (ii) a test statistic that defines a “dominant” mechanism as the mechanism with (substantially) higher posterior probability than the sum of the alternative ones given observed data; (iii) a flexible modelling framework to generate hydrological models from combinations of available mechanisms. The uncertainty in the test statistic is approximated using a model bootstrap approach. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated using synthetic and real data. We use 624 model structures from the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) and data from the Leizarán catchment in Basque Country (northern Spain). The synthetic experiments indicate that the mechanism identification method is reliable; as expected its statistical power (identifiability) declines as data/model errors increase. The "most identifiable" processes are those in the saturated zone and routing, and the "least identifiable" processes are interflow and percolation. The real data experiment yields results that are broadly consistent with the synthetic experiments, with dominant mechanisms identified for 4 of 7 processes. We expect that the proposed mechanism identification method will contribute to hydrological community efforts on improving process representation and model development.

How to cite: Prieto, C., Kavetski, D., Le Vine, N., Fenicia, F., Scheidegger, A., and Vitolo, C.: Identification of dominant mechanisms for representing hydrological processes in catchment scale models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2942, 2025.

EGU25-4837 | Orals | HS3.1

Machine learning models for predicting flood insurance claims through recorded streamflow and historical-claims data integration 

Georgios T. Manolis, Konstantinos Papoulakos, Nikolaos Tepetidis, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Dimosthenis Tsaknias, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Floods rank among the most financially devastating natural hazards, imposing significant risks on communities, insurers, and policymakers. In recent years, intensive advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning research have enhanced the ability to mitigate these risks but also for predicting vulnerable areas, claim amounts, and patterns of flood impact. In this context, our study explores the potential of machine learning models to predict flood insurance claims based on historical streamflow data, actual flood claim records, and regional characteristics. To this respect, we integrate the US-CAMELS dataset, which provides detailed streamflow timeseries, with Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Redacted Claims dataset, containing millions of flood-related insurance claims across the contiguous USA. This integration yields a composite dataset featuring streamflow metrics—such as intensity, duration, and recurrence—alongside FEMA variables, including claim history, flood frequency, and policy characteristics.
Our approach employs machine learning models to predict outcomes such as expected aggregated insurance claims and the likelihood of claim occurrences across different regions, while simultaneously evaluating model’s performance. Through this methodology, we identify critical predictors of flood-related insurance claims, providing valuable insights for risk assessment, enhancing the non-structural elements of early warning systems and economic resilience in flood-prone areas, thus, contributing to the development of proactive and data-driven insurance strategies.

How to cite: Manolis, G. T., Papoulakos, K., Tepetidis, N., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., Tsaknias, D., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Machine learning models for predicting flood insurance claims through recorded streamflow and historical-claims data integration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4837, 2025.

EGU25-5576 | ECS | Orals | HS3.1

Advancing River Water Level Prediction Using Hybrid and Ensemble Machine Learning Models 

Zohreh Sheikh Khozani and Monica Ionita

Accurately predicting river water levels is essential for effective water resource management and reducing flood risks. Traditional hydrological models often struggle to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of river systems. In this study, we explore machine learning techniques to enhance water level predictions. Specifically, we focus on hybrid and ensemble models that combine the strengths of various algorithms to improve both accuracy and reliability. Our approach integrates methods such as Sequential Minimal Optimization for Regression (SMOreg), Rep-Tree, and Decision Table (DT) to predict water levels in the Rhine River. By leveraging hybrid models, we aim to uncover patterns in hydrological data that traditional methods may miss, leading to more precise predictions. The models were trained and validated using 10 years of historical data from the Worms station, incorporating meteorological and hydrological variables as inputs. This study demonstrates that hybrid and ensemble machine learning models offer a robust and reliable solution for predicting river water levels. It underscores the potential of advanced data-driven approaches to support sustainable water resource management and mitigate the impacts of flooding.

How to cite: Sheikh Khozani, Z. and Ionita, M.: Advancing River Water Level Prediction Using Hybrid and Ensemble Machine Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5576, 2025.

A coupled model integrating dual attention mechanism into BiGRU-RED for multi-step-ahead streamflow forecasting

      The accurate streamflow forecast is of utmost importance in the efficient administration of water resources. In this research, we introduced the DA-BiGRU-RED model, an approach that incorporated the dual attention (DA) mechanism involving both feature and temporal attention into the Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) with a recursive encoder-decoder (RED) structure. The feature attention was derived by allocating weights to the hidden states of the BiGRU in the encoder, enhancing the model’s capability to efficiently capture crucial features of the input variables. Concurrently, the temporal attention mechanism was established by jointly weighting the hidden states of the BiGRU in the encoder and decoder, enabling the extraction of temporal message from the input variables. This dual-attention mechanism empowered our model to effectively extract essential information from various kinds and temporal instances of input data, thereby improving the accuracy of multi-step streamflow forecasting. Furthermore, to assess forecasting uncertainty, we employed MC dropout based on Bayesian statistical theory. To gauge the effectiveness of our proposed model, we applied it for 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day ahead forecasting in the Heihe River basin in Northwest China. Our model consistently outperformed both the BiGRU-ED and BiGRU models, as evidenced by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) values exceeding 0.69 in nearly all prediction scenarios. Additionally, the uncertainty assessment revealed that the DA-BiGRU-RED model exhibited the highest PUCI values, underscoring its efficacy in extracting key features and temporal information from input variables and providing more accurate and robust forecasting results.

How to cite: Zhou, T. and Huang, C.: A coupled model integrating dual attention mechanism into BiGRU-RED for multi-step-ahead streamflow forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7862, 2025.

EGU25-9310 | ECS | Orals | HS3.1

Modelling soil moisture and latent heat fluxes at grassland sites in Central Europe 

Vera Brandtner, Mathias Herbst, Antje Lucas-Moffat, Christophe Flechard, and Jean-Christophe Calvet

Agrometeorological modelling provides a powerful tool to gain insights into the dynamics of agricultural ecosystems, especially where measurements are unavailable. For practical applications like forecasting, both temporal patterns and absolute levels of target variables have to be confidently predicted by the model. In our EU-funded project, we are working on the Europe-wide application of the model AMBAV. This physics-based model, which computes coherent water and energy balances in agricultural soil-vegetation-atmosphere systems, is developed at Germany's national meteorological service DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst), and is in operational use for the area of Germany. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of AMBAV at sites in neighbouring countries using local measurements as reference.

We used soil descriptions and meteorological time series from selected DWD and ICOS ecosystem stations to run AMBAV simulations for grassland sites, resulting in multi-year time series at hourly resolution. To assess the model performance, the model predictions of soil moisture in various soil depths and latent heat flux densities were compared to locally measured time series. A set of statistical metrics including Pearson's correlation, the mean error and the ratio of standard deviations as well as the Kling-Gupta-efficiency was used to report on model performance.

The results show that the AMBAV model can be used to reliably predict soil moisture and latent heat flux densities at Central-European grassland sites. For soil moisture, correlations above 0.75 and mean errors within ± 0.08 m3 m-3 in soil depths down to 100 cm are achieved. Similarly high correlations are found for latent heat flux densities, while the magnitude of the mean error strongly depends on the corrections for energy balance closure typically applied to the measurement data. We also address seasonal variations of model performance in our evaluation. This work highlights strengths and weaknesses of the model AMBAV as well as the value of high-quality input and reference data. Our results encourage further investigation on a broad Europe-wide application of the AMBAV model.

How to cite: Brandtner, V., Herbst, M., Lucas-Moffat, A., Flechard, C., and Calvet, J.-C.: Modelling soil moisture and latent heat fluxes at grassland sites in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9310, 2025.

EGU25-9561 | Orals | HS3.1

Temporal dynamics of coupling 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models for urban community rainstorm flooding simulation 

Chaohui Chen, Yao Li, Luoyang Wang, and Tangao Hu

In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, the risk of urban flood disasters caused by heavy rainfall is continuously increasing. To effectively address this challenge, this study developed a stormwater flooding simulation model at the urban community scale by coupling a one-dimensional pipe network hydrodynamic model (SWMM) with a two-dimensional surface water hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP), with particular emphasis on the impact of temporal dynamics on simulation outcomes.

The coupling process integrates time step synchronization, data transmission, and updating model configuration to ensure accurate and dynamic simulations. Initially, an appropriate time step for the SWMM model was selected to ensure its output data provided a suitable temporal resolution for LISFLOOD-FP, optimizing data exchange frequency and detail. At the end of each time step, the overflow node coordinates and volumes from SWMM were converted into the required .bci and .bdy file formats and promptly transmitted to LISFLOOD-FP as input conditions for the next time step, ensuring real-time interaction between the models. Meanwhile, the LISFLOOD-FP configuration files (.par) were updated in real-time based on the latest SWMM output data, incorporating the most recent overflow information as boundary conditions. This continuous feedback loop allowed LISFLOOD-FP to dynamically adjust its simulations, enhancing the precision of inundation predictions.

Validation using actual precipitation data from July 11, 2023, and design storms with various return periods (1a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 50a, and 100a) demonstrated high accuracy in simulating stormwater network loads, inundation extents, and depths. High-risk areas were primarily located at the boundaries of academic zones, the southern side of residential areas, and their intersections. The study concludes that the real-time coupled simulation method, grounded in temporal sequence, not only enhances the precision of inundation predictions but also fully accounts for the complexity of urban stormwater systems, providing robust support for urban planning and disaster mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Chen, C., Li, Y., Wang, L., and Hu, T.: Temporal dynamics of coupling 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models for urban community rainstorm flooding simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9561, 2025.

EGU25-11507 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.1

Adaptive Water Resource Management for Hydropower and Ecosystem Resilience: A Case Study Using System Dynamics 

Nasim Pirani, Behnam Jabbari kalkhoran, Fariborz Masoumi ganjgah, Ramin Karimzadeh, Rasool Ghadimi hellabad, and Mohammad Sabouri

Water resource scarcity-to-sustainability is a glaring issue with climate change, increases in the population, and industrial development. Hydropower reservoirs provide a sustainable energy production solution against all these odds. Further, these are highly integrated into modern energy grids and are becoming more susceptible to variability in climatic and consumption changes.

so this topic become a global issue today due to the pressure of increasing climate change effects, rapid population growth, and industrialization. Demand for hydropower reservoirs coupled with the energy production and ecosystem services that they provide, has put a lot of stress on these sources. The present approach employs a novel stochastic model using system dynamics to optimize water allocation from hydropower reservoirs while ensuring ecosystem sustainability as well as environmental conservation.

The focus of the study is on Karun Basin. Karun Basin is one of Iran's most important water basins and contains 27 reservoirs of varying sizes and operational priorities. Dynamic interactions among the system components were modeled using the Vensim software platform, taking into consideration 49 scenarios of domestic, industrial, agricultural, and environmental demands as well as expected changes in future climatic and socio-economic conditions this modeling effort undertakes using.

Some important performance indicators, such as temporal and volumetric reliability, were calculated to assess the sustainability of the system for all possible management strategies. It is evident from the results that the traditional policies of water allocation are not sufficient to address modern challenges like increasing demand and climatic variability in available supplies. The proposed model optimizes key allocation strategies that maximize energy production and minimize environmental impacts and is applied to recognize endowments by decision-makers. Most importantly, three critical vulnerabilities were identified in the worst-case scenario for the major reservoirs- Beheshtabad, Vanak, and Shahid. This study highlights the importance of adaptive management in risk reduction and resilience of the system.

The present work demonstrates how system dynamics can be used as a decision-support tool for dual purposes: achieving a balance between energy production and environmental sustainability-potentially because the system may be actionable. It has paid attention to one of the matters increasingly being discussed as an important area of action to advance the integration of ecosystem services in water resource management policies. Future work should expand the model using an online environmental monitoring extension and various other applications in similarly water-stressed areas. The stochastic model and sustainability metrics have developed the approach that policymakers and practitioners can take to meet the increasing challenges of water and energy management. Future research will help improve the model through real-time data collection and investigate its applicability in other water-stressed regions.

Keywords: water resource management, Karun Basin, hydropower optimization, system dynamics, stochastic modeling, climate adaptation, sustainability indicators, Vensim

How to cite: Pirani, N., Jabbari kalkhoran, B., Masoumi ganjgah, F., Karimzadeh, R., Ghadimi hellabad, R., and Sabouri, M.: Adaptive Water Resource Management for Hydropower and Ecosystem Resilience: A Case Study Using System Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11507, 2025.

EGU25-11834 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.1

An effective non-Newtonian approach in simulating GLOF Floods 

Nithila Devi Nallasamy, Abinesh Ganapathy, Kristen Cook, Rajeev Rajak, and Niels Hovius

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) often occur at high elevations, resulting in catastrophic flash floods while leaving little or no time for effectively managing them. They are characterized by destructive velocities of several m/s, enabling the transport of a large amount of debris and sediments. Due to a combination of the solid and liquid forces, these flows are characterized by greater momentum and continue recruiting debris and sediments along the path. As a result, they achieve farther run out distances compared to clear water flows. Hence, they deviate largely from pure water mechanics or Newtonian hydraulics. Modelling them using non-Newtonian physics and sediment transport may pave the way for an accurate simulation of these floods. Therefore, in this study, we use various non-Newtonian schemes in a freely available hydraulic model to simulate the recent 2023 Sikkim GLOF flood. We perform Monte Carlo uncertainty-based calibration to estimate the behavioural parametric values for different non-Newtonian approaches in the model. As an outcome of this study, we identify the best-performing non-Newtonian approach and its calibrated parametric ranges. Thus, the study serves as a guideline towards accurate modelling of  GLOFs. The framework adopted in this study can be used elsewhere to simulate GLOFs realistically. As they are expected to become more frequent due to climate change, a pre-assessment modelling strategy for gauging the potential damage can be established for the existing glacial lakes.

How to cite: Nallasamy, N. D., Ganapathy, A., Cook, K., Rajak, R., and Hovius, N.: An effective non-Newtonian approach in simulating GLOF Floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11834, 2025.

EGU25-12180 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.1

Modeling Soil Moisture Dynamics and Variability Using Gaussian Mixture-Based Long Short-Term Memory Networks 

Balazs Bischof, Ralf Loritz, and Erwin Zehe

Soil moisture plays a critical role in various hydrological processes, controlling groundwater recharge, infiltration, and the generation of overland flow. Additionally, it stands as a key determinant for the water supply essential for sustaining vegetation and agricultural crops. Soil moisture measurements using Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) sensors are labor-intensive and expensive, often requiring extensive setup and maintenance. Furthermore, because of the small support volume of these sensors, two of them placed at the same depth just a few meters apart can produce readings that vary by 20 volume percentage or more. These uncertainties are not random; rather, they reflect the small scale variability of e.g. soil texture, which largely controls soil water retention and thus soil moisture dynamics. To effectively model soil moisture and address these uncertainties, we need deep learning (DL) models that can not only make accurate predictions but also learn to represent the underlying variability. Here, we present a model that combines Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), trained on a large dataset of uniquely placed in-situ soil moisture observations collected from the Attert experimental basins in Luxembourg. By training on in-situ soil moisture observations, our model aims to generalize soil moisture dynamics across spatial dimensions, temporal scales, and depths. Unlike traditional models that predict a single, deterministic value, the proposed network outputs weighted probabilistic distributions, providing a promising way to capture small scale soil moisture variability. With this approach we aim to evaluate the predictive performance of different Gaussian-Mixture LSTM (GM-LSTM) setups for soil moisture dynamics and to quantify observational variabilities and uncertainties. By temporal predictions and the assessment of variability we have shown that the developed model setup is capable to model the dynamical fluctuations of soil moisture, as well as to replicate the variability within the cluster site locations. In addition, we observed seasonal variations in the probabilistic model outputs, with lower uncertainty during dry periods and higher variability during wet phases, highlighting the ability of data-driven approaches to uncover relationships and offer additional insights into the dynamics of soil moisture systems. In summary, by using GM-LSTMs, we demonstrated that this modeling approach is capable of simultaneously predicting soil moisture dynamics while accounting for local-scale variability, which is important for improving drought monitoring and agricultural productivity.

How to cite: Bischof, B., Loritz, R., and Zehe, E.: Modeling Soil Moisture Dynamics and Variability Using Gaussian Mixture-Based Long Short-Term Memory Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12180, 2025.

EGU25-12375 | Posters on site | HS3.1

Exploring Positive-Definiteness in Multivariate Geostatistics with Non-Euclidean Distances 

Maria Despoina Koltsidopoulou, Andrew Pavlides, Maria Chrysanthi, and Emmanouil A. Varouchakis

In complex geographic environments, spatial relationships are often distorted by natural barriers and irregular terrain as well as irregular sampling. These sub-optimal conditions often present challenges for geostatistical modeling, especially in multivariate data. Traditional covariance and variogram models relying on Euclidean distance may fail to capture such complexities, necessitating the use of alternative approaches. Building on previous research, this study investigates the performance of various covariance and variogram models applied to multivariate geostatistical data from a mine in Ireland. The dataset, consisting of published concentrations of co-located metals, provides a good opportunity to explore the utility of advanced spatial modeling techniques in continuation of our previous (univariate) studies.

The analysis employs Gaussian anamorphosis with the Kernel Cumulative Density Estimator (KCDE) to normalize the Multivariate data, with the use of a look-up Table for the back-transform of the predicted grid values. The resulting data follow the Normal Distribution N(0,1) and thus the transformed data are gaussian and the values are of the same range.  A range of theoretical variogram models, (for example the Exponential, Gaussian, Spherical) as well as the previously introduced Harmonic Covariance Estimation (HCE) model, is applied to assess their suitability for co-kriging in a multivariate context. Emphasis is placed on ensuring positive-definiteness of the resulting covariance matrices through Eigenvalue analysis [1]. With more than two variables, the invertibility of the augmented covariance matrix is not ensured, even for Euclidean distances. Positive definiteness is further complicated with the utilization of non-Euclidean distance metrics such as Manhattan, Minkowski, or Chebyshev distances.

The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the comparative performance of the HCE model against traditional variogram models in modeling multivariate spatial relationships and the positive definiteness of the multivariate covariance matrices. Furthermore, the accuracy of co-kriging predictions with the various established models and HCE, both before and after the back-transform will be tested and discussed. This research extends the understanding of non-Euclidean geostatistical modeling in multivariate contexts, with potential applications in other regions with complex terrains or spatiotemporal phenomena.


The research project is implemented in the framework of H.F.R.I call “Basic research Financing (Horizontal support of all Sciences)” under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0” funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU (H.F.R.I. Project Number: 16537)

 

1) Curriero, F.C.: On the use of non-euclidean distance measures in geostatistics. Mathematical Geology 38, 907–926 (2006)

How to cite: Koltsidopoulou, M. D., Pavlides, A., Chrysanthi, M., and Varouchakis, E. A.: Exploring Positive-Definiteness in Multivariate Geostatistics with Non-Euclidean Distances, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12375, 2025.

Hydrodynamical models on watersheds with high flash-flood risk are useful tools. Although it is important to know how reliable a model is for calculating aspects of the overland flow.

Steep-sloped, natural watersheds have sudden geometrical changes. The slope alteration on the overland flow area, the chaotic meandering of the natural stream beds cause complex turbulent flow.

In average, hydrodynamical models with solvers based on the full depth integrated Shallow Water Equations (SWE) can be accepted as the most accurate methods. On the other hand, the SWE based models can easily become unstable due to the changes in geometry. If a simulation becomes unstable, to increase stability simplifications can be necessary. The Local Inertia Approximation (LIA) is a simplified method, where nonlinear advection is neglected. Although with the simplification the proper representation of the turbulent flow can be lost.  Therefore, additional methods are required to regain the proper turbulent effect without the sacrifice of the model’s stability.

The Large Eddy Simulation (LES) can be a suitable additional part for the overland flow model. The method’s task is to increase the model’s accuracy on the calculation of the turbulent flow.

This research uses artificial watersheds to compare different modelling methods thru stable calculations. The goal is showing how simplified hydrodynamical models’ accuracy can be amplified on calculating turbulent overland flow.

Keywords: numerical modelling, hydrodynamics, shallow water equation, local inertia, overland flow, watershed model

How to cite: Ámon, G. and Bene, K.: Accuracy of the Local Inertia Approximation solver and the importance of Large Eddy Simulation in 2D hydrodynamical models on steep-sloped watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13519, 2025.

EGU25-15074 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.1

Enhancing accuracy of IMERG-E satellite rainfall products for Mahanadi River Basin using bias-correction methods 

Roshan Suryakant Mohanty, Chandranath Chatterjee, and Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Satellite precipitation products, such as early runs of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG-E), provide comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage, offering significant improvements in rainfall monitoring in remote regions. These products are essential for enhancing the accuracy of flood forecasting. However, compared to the ground-based observations, IMERG data not free from biases. In this study, we apply Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching combined with Support Vector Machines (SVM) to correct biases over the Mahanadi River Basin in eastern India. The Kernel-based SVM is used to capture the nonlinear relationships between the 0.1º× 0.5h IMERG-E and 0.25º×1-day IMD gridded observations. Subsequently, this method is compared with the traditional CDF bias-correction techniques, aiming to improve the IMERG-E precipitation estimates. The corrected IMERG estimates can contribute to more reliable flood forecasting, supporting informed decision-making processes in flood risk management.

How to cite: Mohanty, R. S., Chatterjee, C., and Sahoo, B.: Enhancing accuracy of IMERG-E satellite rainfall products for Mahanadi River Basin using bias-correction methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15074, 2025.

The interception of rainfall by a surface, such as vegetation and soil, reduces the quantity of water participating in downstream processes. This rainfall interception loss is a non-negligible quantity that varies with the ecosystem, meteorological, and rainfall conditions. Rainfall interception models are needed to incorporate the three properties to estimate interception loss. However, the interception losses from these models are rarely validated directly. Rather their validation relies on the residual of the water balance. Eddy Covariance (EC) towers measure the fluxes of water vapour and present an opportunity to validate the modelled interception losses.

We present a pioneering interception study that compares evaporation from physically calibrated interception models to the energy balance closure corrected water vapour fluxes recorded intermittently by an EC tower. We generate parameters for the canopy interception models by the hierarchical Bayesian treatment of the Rutter, Rutter sparse, Gash, and Calder models with the data from automatic throughfall and rain gauges over 271 rain events (177 for Gash). We use these models to estimate the extent of soil cover, throughfall to the soil underneath the canopy, and interception losses. A physically calibrated soil evaporative capacitor model was then used to model the evaporation from the bare soil and soil beneath the canopy. The canopy interception models recreated the event-wise throughfall well, however they did not represent a substantial improvement on the benchmark of a simple percentage estimate. The combined soil and canopy model is considerably better than a simple percentage in recreating the magnitude and time series of interception loss. The method developed can be applied to any EC tower that measure throughfall allowing for broader insights to be generated into the capability and limitations of interception loss modelling.

How to cite: Kunadi, A., Silberstein, R., Leopold, M., and Thompson, S.: S&p 500(0): Utilizing Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling to advance parameter estimation of Canopy Interception Models using Eddy Covariance, Throughfall and Soil Hydraulic Measurements in a Mediterranean Ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17227, 2025.

EGU25-19553 | Orals | HS3.1

Improving stochastic rainfall models through event classification 

Gregor Laaha, Nur Banu Özcelik, Lena Ortega Menjivar, Svenja Fischer, and Johannes Laimighofer

Stochastic rainfall models rely on accurate rainfall distributions. Since rainfall is generated by various processes, rainfall series are composed of events with different distributions. In such cases, the use of mixed distribution approaches has been recommended (e.g., Laaha 2023) based on event separation. However, separating rainfall events into generative types is not straightforward.

We propose clustering based on event characteristics derived from the rainfall series (such as peak magnitude, duration, average intensity, and relative time to peak) to stratify the rainfall series into types of rainfall events. These event characteristics are derived using Yevjevich’s theory of runs, which is commonly used in hydrological drought studies and is adapted here for rainfall event separation to exploit the temporal characteristics of rainfall events. Additionally, a binary lightning index is used to help distinguish between convective and stratiform events.

We compare two methods for event classification. The first method is model-based clustering using a Gamma mixture model. The second method is the robust partitioning method PAM, which uses Gower’s distance to handle the mixed data structure of the event characteristics. Both methods are optimized regarding the number of clusters using state-of-the-art criteria.

The analysis shows that clustering based on rainfall event characteristics and the lightning index is a simple yet effective method to reduce process heterogeneity in rainfall frequency analysis. These characteristics are obtained without additional weather data, which is a major strength of the approach. Finally, we compare the distributions of event types to discuss the value of mixed distribution approaches for stochastic rainfall modeling. In summary, this study encourages a better understanding of statistical assumptions in applied models and enriches the physical knowledge included in environmental statistics, such as stochastic rainfall models.

Reference:

Laaha G (2023). “A Mixed Distribution Approach for Low-Flow Frequency Analysis – Part 1: Concept, Performance, and Effect of Seasonality.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(3), 689–701. ISSN 1607-7938. doi:10.5194/hess-27-689-2023.

How to cite: Laaha, G., Özcelik, N. B., Ortega Menjivar, L., Fischer, S., and Laimighofer, J.: Improving stochastic rainfall models through event classification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19553, 2025.

EGU25-780 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

The Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Hydrological Modeling: An Analysis over Indian basins 

Anagha Peringiyil, Manabendra Saharia, and Priyam Deka

Gridded precipitation products are naturally uncertain due to different factors like measurement errors, precipitation undercatch, and errors introduced by the different interpolation algorithms. Hydrological modelling is significantly influenced by the uncertainty in meteorological data. The effectiveness of advanced data assimilation systems and other tools in land surface and hydrological modeling is limited due to the lack of quantitative estimates of uncertainty for hydro-meteorological data. We have created a high-resolution ensemble precipitation dataset, Indian Precipitation Ensemble Dataset (IPED), at 0.1° resolution from 1991 to 2023 over the Indian region. This dataset is derived from observation-based precipitation data using a locally weighted linear regression algorithm. However, its potential in evaluating the uncertainties in hydrological modeling is yet to be explored. This study investigates the impact of uncertainties in precipitation data on hydrological modeling across 18 basins in India by utilizing IPED dataset into Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS), a hydrologic hydrodynamic model. The ensemble simulation employs IPED's probabilistic estimates to perform uncertainty analysis. The results highlight the extent, spatial distribution, and magnitude of uncertainties in precipitation and streamflow variables from 1991 to 2023. A key finding is that uncertainties in streamflow are significantly affected by uncertainties in precipitation. Both spatial and temporal averaging have distinctive effects on the uncertainty of different variables across the study area. In conclusion, this investigation provides a thorough understanding of how IPED dataset improves and quantifies the uncertainties in streamflow over Indian river basins that arise from precipitation data uncertainties. 

How to cite: Peringiyil, A., Saharia, M., and Deka, P.: The Impact of Precipitation Uncertainty on Hydrological Modeling: An Analysis over Indian basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-780, 2025.

EGU25-3875 | Orals | HS3.2

Mapping trace element abundance in groundwater using a double-clustering approach 

Abrahan Mora, Juan Antonio Torres-Martínez, and Jürgen Mahlknecht

 

The main goal of this study was to determine the reliability of the double-clustering approach using hierarchical cluster analyses (HCA) to delineate the abundance of major and trace elements in groundwater of an arid watershed in northcentral Mexico, where the As geogenic contamination leads an important deterioration of the groundwater quality. For that, fifty-five groundwater samples were collected from wells within the watershed and physicochemical parameters such as pH, conductivity, temperature, and ORP were measured in situ. In the laboratory, major ions, metalloids, and trace elements were measured by ion chromatography and ICP-MS. For the development of the double-clustering approach, all the data were log-transformed and standardized to approximate normality. A first HCA was performed for clustering variables. This HCA produced six groups of variables. Then, an HCA of cases was applied to each group of variables, which delineated maps describing the magnitude of each group of variables in the aquifer. In general, the double-clustering approach was effective for identifying processes (lithogenic/anthropogenic) controlling the abundance of major and trace elements in groundwater of the above-mentioned watershed. This method identified hotspot of As, Sb, Ge, V, and W in the alluvial aquifer, suggesting a concomitant release to these elements to groundwater. In addition, the applied approach identified mountainous areas with high concentrations of HCO3-, Ca, Mg, K, Sr, Rb, Ga, Ba, Cs, Pb, Ni, Y, and U, indicating that the weathering of carbonate/silicate rocks plays an important role in the abundance of these ions/elements in groundwater. The double-clustering approach was also successful in delineating disperse areas where the salinity and the levels of Na, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-, B, Li, and the chalcophilic elements Cu, Re, and Se in groundwater were elevated, mainly related to processes such as evaporite dissolution and increasing concentrations due to the irrigation return flow. Overall, the double-clustering was also compared with spatial statistical techniques such as the Moran Index and the Local Indicator for Spatial Association (LISA), which demonstrated that the double-clustering is a powerful tool capable of visualizing zones where specific natural/anthropogenic processes may threaten the groundwater quality.

How to cite: Mora, A., Torres-Martínez, J. A., and Mahlknecht, J.: Mapping trace element abundance in groundwater using a double-clustering approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3875, 2025.

EGU25-4179 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.2

Probabilistic prediction of climate extreme events with deep learning 

Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo, Marta Mastropietro, Jonathan Spinoni, and Massimo Tavoni

Climate extreme events pose significant societal and environmental challenges, yet their prediction remains complex due to their rare occurrence and inherent variability. We present a novel probabilistic deep learning framework that predicts multiple climate extremes directly from simple variables, namely monthly temperature and precipitation. Our approach employs a conditional generative adversarial network with a modified U-Net architecture, incorporating self-attention mechanisms and fully-residual blocks to capture long-range spatial dependencies and provide precise estimations. The model is trained using a combination of adversarial, perceptual, physical, and frequency losses, along with an extensive data augmentation pipeline designed explicitly for gridded climate data. We show that our approach achieves superior performance compared to different baselines in predicting nine different climate extreme indices, including droughts, temperature extremes, heat waves, cold waves, and precipitation and snow extremes. Importantly, our framework provides uncertainty estimates, essential for decision-making in climate adaptation strategies. Through comprehensive ablation studies, we show the relative importance of different architectural components and training strategies. Our results suggest that deep learning can effectively bridge the gap between monthly climate variables and extreme event prediction, offering a computationally efficient alternative to traditional climate modeling approaches while maintaining physical consistency and providing uncertainty quantification.

How to cite: Rodriguez-Pardo, C., Mastropietro, M., Spinoni, J., and Tavoni, M.: Probabilistic prediction of climate extreme events with deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4179, 2025.

EGU25-4442 | Orals | HS3.2

A method for gap-filling very large spatial datasets: application to AVIRIS-based airborne data 

Gregoire Mariethoz, Loïc Gerber, Audrey Lambiel, and Nathan Külling

The analysis of spatial processes in environmental and hydrological sciences is often informed by remote sensing observations, provided by satellite or airborne sensors. However, the raw data obtained by such means can present gaps, for instance due to the orbital characteristics of a satellite or to specificities of the aircraft flight path. Many applications and modeling workflows require complete, gapless data. Geostatistical approaches are often used to fill these data gaps, however the sheer size of modern remote sensing datasets make the application of traditional geostatistical approaches challenging due to computational constraints (high-resolution, broad spatial coverage) and to data characteristics (complexity of features, non-stationarity).

In this work, we develop a new approach based on multiple-point geostatistics to fill gaps in very large and non-stationary data sets. It is based on a strategy of partition of the domain in overlapping tiles. This makes the problem computationally more affordable, while additionally enabling parallelization. It also alleviates issues related to non-stationarity, since the assumption of stationarity is more likely to be valid on a small tile than on a large domain.

The approach is illustrated on a dataset that is based on acquisitions by the AVIRIS-NG hyperspectral airborne sensor in Switzerland. The data present significant gaps, and at the same time the domain is extremely large, comprising over 300 million pixels. The simulation results are visually realistic and corroborate independent validation data.

How to cite: Mariethoz, G., Gerber, L., Lambiel, A., and Külling, N.: A method for gap-filling very large spatial datasets: application to AVIRIS-based airborne data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4442, 2025.

EGU25-5147 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

Optimizing typhoon-induced accumulated rainfall prediction through track similarity and meteorological properties 

Seoyeong Ku, Jongjin Baik, Jongyun Byun, Jong-Suk Kim, and Changhyun Jun

Abstract

Typhoons, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall, are among the most devastating natural disasters, causing significant loss of life and property damage. To prepare for disaster situations caused by typhoons, predicting Typhoon-induced Accumulated Rainfall (TAR) is crucial. Many previous studies have attempted to predict TAR by evaluating the similarity between typhoon tracks and rainfall patterns using various methods. In this study, we utilized time series data evaluating methodologies (e.g. Dynamic Time Warping, Cosine Similarity, etc.), for assessing similarity of typhoon tracks. Using the best typhoon track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorology Center, Tokyo from 1979 to 2024 (1,157 in the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea), and National Hurricane Center (727 in Atlantic and 816 in Northeast and North Central Pacific), and precipitation data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Prediction Center. The similarity of typhoon tracks was evaluated based on the latitude and longitude of the typhoon center and various meteorological properties such as pressure, translation speed. Typhoons with highly similar tracks were clustered, and the average TAR of the clustered typhoons was used to predict the TAR. To optimize the number of typhoons included within a single cluster, we determined the Optimal Ensemble Number (OEN) based on the root mean square error between observed TAR and predicted TAR. In this process, each typhoon’s trajectory and region are considered. Using OEN, we predicted TAR and validated the performance of our method by selecting typhoons which have different tracks and rainfall characteristics. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology achieved performance comparable to that of previous studies. These findings suggest that methodologies for evaluating the similarity of time series data can comprehensively account for not only typhoon tracks but also unique meteorological attributes, contributing to improved TAR prediction.

 

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (RS-2024-00334564).

How to cite: Ku, S., Baik, J., Byun, J., Kim, J.-S., and Jun, C.: Optimizing typhoon-induced accumulated rainfall prediction through track similarity and meteorological properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5147, 2025.

EGU25-5186 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

Multivariate spatial analysis of hydrological extremes in urban watersheds 

Ítalo Mira, Leornado Santos, Antônio Miguel Monteiro, and Camilo Rennó

Understanding hydrological extremes and the factors that condition them is crucial to 
promoting the adaptability of urban watersheds. Furthermore, few studies investigate 
the spatial variability of these factors and their explanatory power. This study analyzed 
the Tamanduateí River Basin, located in São Paulo, Brazil, using data from multiple 
sources to explore the spatial relationships between inundation points occurrence and 
geo-environmental factors. Spatial autocorrelation models, as Global and Local 
Moran’s Index were applied in these points to identify patterns and areas most 
susceptible to these events. To assess the explanatory power and interaction among 
11 geo-environmental factors - including Topographic Position Index (TPI), Terrain 
Roughness Index (TRI), Sediment Transport Index (STI), Stream Power Index (SPI), 
Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Drainage Density (DD), Height Above Nearest 
Drain (HAND), Slope, Hillshade, Distance to River (DR) and Cumulative Expanded 
Area (AEXPAND) - the Geodetector geostatistical tool was used. Subsequently, the 
Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) algorithm was used to 
examine the most relevant factors, allowing a detailed analysis of the spatial interaction 
among them. The results indicated a strong spatial dependence of inundation points 
occurrence and showed significant simultaneous effects of the factors analyzed. Flat 
areas with consolidated anthropogenic use had a higher incidence of these events, 
with variables such as HAND and AEXPAND standing out. These findings reinforce the 
importance of topography and land use in the dynamics of hydrological extremes. This 
study offers an integrated approach to understanding the spatial heterogeneity of 
hydrological extremes in urban areas, contributing to the mapping of these events. In 
addition, the proposed methodology can be replicated in other regions, especially 
those with scarce spatial data, expanding the possibilities for preventing and adapting 
to extreme events in different urban contexts.

How to cite: Mira, Í., Santos, L., Monteiro, A. M., and Rennó, C.: Multivariate spatial analysis of hydrological extremes in urban watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5186, 2025.

EGU25-5250 | Orals | HS3.2

Spectral methods for non-linear co-regionalization 

Sebastian Hoerning, Dany Lauzon, and András Bárdossy

It is frequently the case that direct and indirect measurements have to be combined to deliver meaningful estimates of the variable of interest. Linear co-regionalization, which assumes that all variables share common spatial structures, has widely been used in geostatistics to model the correlated spatial random fields. The underlying linearity assumption, however, is restrictive with respect to the choice of the direct and cross variograms, as it assumes very similar spatial structure for the direct and indirect variables. In this contribution, a new method of non-linear co-regionalization based on Fourier transformation is presented. First, the coherence of the corresponding fields based on their power spectra is introduced. The coherence gives a variogram-dependent upper and lower limit for the correlation of the random fields. The direct variograms of the two fields depend on their phase spectrum. The phase differences of these phase spectra determine the cross-variogram. A simulation method for generating correlated random fields with given direct and cross variograms is presented. The method allows the use of different models for the direct variograms as well as for the cross variogram. Further, the method enables the consideration of non-Gaussian copula-based spatial features, such as different types of spatial asymmetries. This enables the simulation of correlated fields with value-dependent correlations. A real world and various theoretical examples with different Gaussian and non-Gaussian copula-based dependence structures will be used to illustrate the methodology and its flexibility.

How to cite: Hoerning, S., Lauzon, D., and Bárdossy, A.: Spectral methods for non-linear co-regionalization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5250, 2025.

EGU25-5489 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.2

Correlated Nugget Effects in Multivariate SPDE Models: Enhancing Ocean Data Predictions 

Damilya Saduakhas, David Bolin, Alexandre B. Simas, and Jonas Wallin

Accurate modeling of multivariate spatial processes is essential for interpreting complex environmental datasets, such as those collected by the Argo project on ocean temperature and salinity. Traditional geostatistical models often assume independent measurement errors, which can lead to biased parameter estimates and inaccurate spatial predictions, especially in the presence of correlated noise and high small-scale variability. This study advances the conventional geostatistical framework by integrating a correlation term within the nugget effect, thereby accommodating correlated measurement errors in bivariate Matérn Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) models.

We analyzed global Argo profile data spanning from 2007 to 2020 to assess the impact of the correlated nugget effect on variable estimation and spatial prediction. Enhanced models were developed for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian (Normal-Inverse Gaussian) driving noises. Our findings indicate that neglecting measurement noise correlation distorts the estimated dependencies between variables, resulting in substantial misestimation of the true dependence structure, particularly under strong noise correlations.

Applying our methodology to real-world Argo data, we employed a moving-window approach alongside the Matérn-SPDE model to predict temperature and salinity at unobserved oceanic locations. Cross-validation metrics, including the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and Mean Squared Error (MSE), demonstrated that models incorporating the correlated nugget effect consistently outperformed traditional models. This improvement was particularly notable in capturing small-scale variations and underlying dependencies, thereby enhancing interpretability and predictive accuracy.

These results underscore the critical importance of accounting for measurement noise correlation in multivariate geostatistical analyses. By refining dependence structures and improving predictive accuracy, our work contributes to more robust multivariate spatial analyses in climate and oceanography, encouraging further research into non-stationary and higher-dimensional extensions within environmental geostatistics.

How to cite: Saduakhas, D., Bolin, D., Simas, A. B., and Wallin, J.: Correlated Nugget Effects in Multivariate SPDE Models: Enhancing Ocean Data Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5489, 2025.

EGU25-8367 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

Impact of Meteorological Data Variability on Budyko Parameter Estimations 

R Urmila Raghava Panikkar and Roshan Srivastav

Over time, many hydrologic models have been developed, ranging from physical-based to system-theoretic approaches. A simplified system-level understanding of the hydrologic process can be represented using conceptual models. Budyko framework, a lumped first-order representation of precipitation partitioning, has been widely applied to evaluate water balance. The Budyko equations are characterized by specific parameters representing the climatic and catchment characteristics. Therefore, the reliability of the framework is highly influenced by the accurate estimation of the parameters. The different input data sources can lead to varied estimates of the model parameter. The study examines the parametric uncertainties arising from various meteorological data sources. With the uncertainty attributed to precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration data sources, the study highlights the need to select and validate data sources carefully. In addition, the study highlights the challenges in parameter estimation and in capturing the underlying hydrologic processes within the Budyko framework. 

How to cite: Raghava Panikkar, R. U. and Srivastav, R.: Impact of Meteorological Data Variability on Budyko Parameter Estimations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8367, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8367, 2025.

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) exhibit complex spatiotemporal dependency on multiple variables including precipitation, surface and soil water, and groundwater availability. While spatial relationships have been explored in many previous studies, the temporal lag between GDE vegetation health and hydrology is not well understood across a scale of anthropogenic influence. Data from three groundwater dependent ecosystems (Arkansas River in Colorado, USA; South Platte River in Colorado, USA; and the San Pedro River in Arizona, USA), each differing in magnitude of anthropogenic encroachment, are collected and analyzed to discern which hydrologic variables have the strongest correlation in time with phreatophyte health (e.g., Populus fremontii and Populus deltoides). Phreatophyte health serves as a surrogate for overall GDE health. The response variable used to estimate GDE health is a daily time series (2016-2023) of plant health that is quantified by computing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using Planet Imagery (3-m spatial resolution). The covariates are groundwater depth (meters below land surface), discharge (cubic meter per second), precipitation (mm) and temperature (deg. C). We examine the temporal dependence between the response variable and each covariate by first pre-whitening each data series using a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model and then applying a cross-correlation analysis to the residuals. Initial results indicate the correlation in time between NDVI and groundwater depth are highest at time t and t-1, regardless of the magnitude of anthropogenic influence, on a monthly time scale. We anticipate that at higher temporal frequency (i.e., daily) the correlation between the response and the covariates will show distinct patterns owing to alterations in the natural flow regime from agricultural practices and reservoir management. Our research highlights the complex temporal relationship between phreatophyte health and hydrology in groundwater dependent ecosystems encroached by differing magnitudes of anthropogenic influence. This research can aid conservationists in understanding the lagged impact that environmental flows, drought, land use change, and pumping-induced water table decline can have on phreatophyte health. Additionally, this research informs the choice of temporal scale (i.e., daily or monthly) at which to model groundwater dependent ecosystems in spatially distributed parameter modeling schemes.

How to cite: Lurtz, M., Ronayne, M., and Huete, A.: Comparison of temporal dependence between phreatophyte health and hydrometeorological variables for three groundwater dependent ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11726, 2025.

EGU25-11871 | Posters on site | HS3.2

High-Resolution Atlas of Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures in Sicily 

Calogero Mattina, Dario Treppiedi, Antonio Francipane, and Leonardo Valerio Noto

Air temperature data are widely used in climatological and hydrological applications. In a data-rich era (e.g., satellites and reanalysis datasets), ground station data still provide a much more accurate estimate of this variable. However, in situ measurements are only representative of a single point in space, and instruments are often replaced or relocated, creating spatial and/or temporal discontinuities that prevent their direct use, and for this reason it is increasingly difficult to obtain long-term observational series.

This problem is evident in the island of Sicily, Italy, where two different air temperature measurement networks exist: the first, provided by the Osservatorio delle Acque – Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque (OA-ARRA), covers the period from 1980 to 2012, while the second, provided by the Servizio Informativo Agrometeorologico Siciliano (SIAS), has continuously recorded data since 2002. From these two measurement networks, which overlap for a 10-year period, we tested and validated a methodology based on the spatial analysis techniques of interpolation of daily maximum and minimum temperature data. Specifically, we combined Ordinary Kriging with the Near Surface Lapse Rate (NSLR-OK) to account for the altitude effect in the interpolation process.

The datasets provided by the aforementioned networks were used to identify some criticalities due to the different measurement instruments used, by applying a methodology aimed at reducing biases between the two datasets. First, we interpolated the daily maximum and minimum temperature datasets from the OA-ARRA on the SIAS stations for the overlap period. The results of the interpolation procedure were compared with the data recorded at the SIAS stations returning accurate results. We then extended the interpolation from 1980 onwards using a high spatial resolution grid (2x2 km) which allowed us to create the T-Atlas for Sicily, which is a useful tool for detecting possible signals of climate change and their potential spatial patterns across the island.

How to cite: Mattina, C., Treppiedi, D., Francipane, A., and Noto, L. V.: High-Resolution Atlas of Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures in Sicily, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11871, 2025.

EGU25-13101 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.2

Improved 3D Geological Modelling with Geophysical Data and Markov-Type Categorical Prediction 

Liming Guo, Thomas Hermans, Nicolas Benoit, David Dudal, Ellen Van De Vijver, Rasmus Madsen, Jesper Nørgaard, and Wouter Deleersnyder

Airborne electromagnetics (AEM) is a key tool for 3D subsurface imaging, enabling fast, efficient collection of large datasets for hydrogeological studies (Deleersnyder et al., 2023; Madsen et al., 2022). Combined with geostatistical modelling techniques, AEM data generates geologically realistic, data-consistent subsurface models (Hermans et al., 2015). Geostatistics integrates diverse data, captures geological variability, and addresses parameter uncertainties. This study integrates AEM inversion results with the Markov-type categorical prediction (MCP) method to improve subsurface modelling, using a 3D hydrogeological site in Denmark.

The study area has 13 lithological layers, ranging from Quaternary sands and clays to Miocene and Paleogene clays, as well as a limestone layer at the base (Madsen et al., 2022). A practical workflow was developed to create a lithological model using AEM data and borehole observations. The process starts by extracting 100 2D transects from an existing 3D lithological model. These transects are used to calculate 2D bivariate probabilities, which describe the spatial relationships between different lithological units (Benoit et al. 2018). The 100 individual probabilities are then merged into a single bivariate probability distribution, which is used to calculate conditional probabilities in the Markov-type categorical prediction (MCP) method.

AEM data were integrated with borehole observations to enhance the accuracy of the lithological modelling. A stochastic petrophysical model linked lithological classes to inverted AEM resistivity values. The permanence of ratios concept combined MCP-derived conditional probabilities with geophysical data, ensuring consistent relative contributions.

Figure 1: Overview of Integrating Borehole and TEM Data into MCP-Based Geological Modelling

The real-world application to the Danish hydrogeological site highlighted the robustness of the integrated approach. Cross-sections from the 3D model showed clear improvements in lithological delineation compared to non-constrain simulations. These results present the potential of geophysically constrained MCP simulations to support resource management and groundwater modelling in complex geological settings.


References
Benoit, N., Marcotte, D., Boucher, A., D’Or, D., Bajc, A. and Rezaee, H., (2018). Directional hydrostratigraphic units simulation using MCP algorithm. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 32, 1435-1455.

Deleersnyder, W., Maveau, B., Hermans, T., & Dudal, D. (2023). Flexible quasi-2D inversion of time-domain AEM data, using a wavelet-based complexity measure. Geophysical Journal International, 233(3), 1847–1862.

Hermans, T., Nguyen, F. and Caers, J., (2015). Uncertainty in training image‐based inversion of hydraulic head data constrained to ERT data: Workflow and case study. Water Resources Research, 51(7), 5332-5352.

Madsen, R. B., Høyer, A.-S., Andersen, L. T., Møller, I., & Hansen, T. M. (2022). Geology-driven modeling: A new probabilistic approach for incorporating uncertain geological interpretations in 3D geological modeling. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland. Institute for Geoscience, University of Aarhus.

How to cite: Guo, L., Hermans, T., Benoit, N., Dudal, D., Van De Vijver, E., Madsen, R., Nørgaard, J., and Deleersnyder, W.: Improved 3D Geological Modelling with Geophysical Data and Markov-Type Categorical Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13101, 2025.

EGU25-16444 | Posters on site | HS3.2

An integrated Geostatistical and Numerical Modelling framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wave Energy Fields in the Aegean Sea 

Katerina Spanoudaki, Anna Kaminska Chuchmala, and Emmanouil A. Varouchakis

Accurate spatiotemporal prediction of wave energy fields is critical for harnessing marine renewable energy, particularly in dynamic and complex regions like the Aegean Sea. The current work focuses on the spatiotemporal wave data analysis combining numerical wave modelling and geostatistical methods, for estimating the Wave Energy Potential for the Aegean Sea, an area with unsustainable energy production. The ERA5 produced by ECMWF reanalysis dataset which combines a weather model with observational data from satellites and ground sensors, is used to force NOAA/NCEP’s WAVEWATCH III numerical model to obtain the significant wave height and mean wave period for the area of interest over a fine grid of 3 x 3 km resolution. Geostatistical modelling, by means of co-kriging employing the recently established non-differentiable Spartan semivariogram and leveraging auxiliary variables such as wind data, is employed to estimate significant wave height variability and wave energy potential at finer coastal scales. Results of the geostatistical analysis are cross-validated with existing observations as well as with the results obtained from the computational methods. Spatiotemporal geostatistical or other stochastic spatiotemporal approaches have not been used with marine data and detailed studies of temporal, seasonal and spatial distribution analysis of significant wave height and wave energy potential is being carried out for the first time using these methods for the Aegean Sea. Updated spatial maps of the significant wave height and period and of the wave energy potential distribution for long-term seasonal changes are provided, based on results spanning a 20-year period, that reaches up to current years. The proposed integrated framework is relocatable to other areas of the Mediterranean Sea and provides insight into the application of the less computationally intensive geostatistical modelling in marine wave data.

How to cite: Spanoudaki, K., Kaminska Chuchmala, A., and Varouchakis, E. A.: An integrated Geostatistical and Numerical Modelling framework for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wave Energy Fields in the Aegean Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16444, 2025.

EGU25-18625 | Posters on site | HS3.2

Assessing the multivariant effect on floods using the coupled SWAT -Copula model 

Saran Raaj, Vivek Gupta, and Vishal Singh

There are several variables which are the triggering factor for floods, among them precipitation, soil moisture and snowmelt is a critical factor which plays a crucial role in snow covered mountain regions. This study uses Vine Copula to determine the dependency structure of the joint variable distribution between precipitation, soil moisture and snowmelt in Beas River basin. In this study, the SWAT model is coupled with the Vine Copula model to conduct multivariate analysis for flood using the sub-basins parameters. For this purpose, the 45-year data which is generated from SWAT model were used. The Vine copula technique approach requires the marginal distributions for each variable and different copula function that combines the marginal data in a tree structure to generate a joint distribution. Considering the range of the variables eight univariant marginal functions were chosen. Once marginal distribution is determined, 18 list of copulas were used to analyse the correlation of variables in pairwise. Later tree sequence of R-, D- and C-vine copulas were analysed in the study. Finally, according to the structure and nature of the data, R-vine copula was selected as the best copula and the relevant tree sequence was later used. Kendall’s tau test was used to check the correlation of the variables in pairwise and showed good correlation. This study proves to be an effective approach in improvising the flood prediction and control of flood risks.

How to cite: Raaj, S., Gupta, V., and Singh, V.: Assessing the multivariant effect on floods using the coupled SWAT -Copula model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18625, 2025.

EGU25-18917 | Posters on site | HS3.2

Improving rainfall gradients modeling by conditioning daily rainfall maps to monthly totals 

Lionel Benoit, Matthew Lucas, Denis Allard, Keri Kodama, and Thomas Giambelluca

Rainfall maps are key tools in hydrological sciences, with uses ranging from the understanding of rainfall climatology to distributed hydrological modeling. Due to the wide availability of rain gauge records and the high accuracy of these direct observations, daily rainfall maps are often derived from the spatial interpolation of rain gauge data.

Geostatistical methods are commonly used to create gridded rainfall maps from scattered rain gauge observations, and have the advantage of providing an estimation of the uncertainty associated with the interpolation process. However, the uncertainty in the resulting daily rainfall maps increases with the distance to the rain gauges, and the variance of the interpolation uncertainty tends to the variance of the rainfall signal itself at grid points far from any rain gauge. This also results in daily rainfall maps with over-smooth spatial gradients, in particular in mountains areas where rain gauge networks are relatively sparse and rainfall gradients strong.

To overcome this limitation, we propose to condition daily rainfall maps not only to daily rain gauge observations, but also to monthly totals that can be available at ungauged locations. These monthly totals can be derived for instance from monthly rainfall maps incorporating additional observations recorded by rain gauges operating at the monthly resolution, as well as information about long-term rainfall patterns (obtained from e.g., vegetation patterns or past rainfall monitoring campaigns). This task is complicated by the fact that the geostatistical model we use is complex due to the intention to account for the temporal variability of daily rainfall patterns, and we therefore resort to a Metropolis within Gibbs algorithm to perform the conditioning to monthly totals.

The performance of the method is assessed for the Island of Hawai‘i (state of Hawaii, USA) which is known to experience dramatic rainfall gradients. Results show that the proposed approach drastically improves the modeling of daily rainfall gradients in poorly gauges areas as well as at the edges of the modeling domain.

How to cite: Benoit, L., Lucas, M., Allard, D., Kodama, K., and Giambelluca, T.: Improving rainfall gradients modeling by conditioning daily rainfall maps to monthly totals, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18917, 2025.

EGU25-19012 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

Regionalization methods for compound events based on Wasserstein distance 

Regina Castrovilli, Fabrizio Durante, Daniela Gallo, and Gianfausto Salvadori

Understanding compound events involves analyzing the interactions between different climate variables, assessing their probability of co-occurrence, and evaluating their cumulative impacts. 

This field of study has gained attention in recent years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, which are often linked to climate change.

Regionalization, in the study of compound events, refers to the process of tailoring analyses and models to specific geographic regions. This approach is vital because the characteristics and impacts of compound events can vary significantly across different areas due to variations in climate, geography, socio-economic conditions, and infrastructure resilience. Regionalization methods seek to identify sub-regions that display similar patterns in the variables of interest.

The objective of this talk is to offer a regionalization of intricate spatial climatological datasets, particularly when considering compound extremes.

To this end, a clustering algorithm is introduced to group time series of maxima for paired random variables observed at different stations. The approach requires different types of dissimilarity measures. In particular, it relies on the copula approach and on the use of the related Kendall distributions that are compared with the Wasserstein distance.

As an illustration, using data on daily maximum temperature (in Celsius) and daily maximum evapotranspiration (mm/day) from the ERA5 dataset, collected across various municipalities throughout Italy, enhanced estimation of climate-related metrics at specific locations are obtained by leveraging regions with statistically similar characteristics.

How to cite: Castrovilli, R., Durante, F., Gallo, D., and Salvadori, G.: Regionalization methods for compound events based on Wasserstein distance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19012, 2025.

EGU25-20526 | ECS | Orals | HS3.2

Advanced geostatistical modeling of piezometric data in Northeastern Italy 

Massimiliano Schiavo

Geostatistical models are often employed within various hydrological and earth sciences applications, enabling objective-oriented estimations and the accurate quantification of local uncertainty. This work proposes to power geostatistical methods via Machine Learning algorithms to be used into their pre-processing and post-processing phases. The preprocessing algorithm drives the variogram analysis by looking for the optima variogram structure, lag distance among, and correlation scale for fitting experimental data. In the post-processing phase, once the kriging-based estimation of the target variable is acquired, the algorithm attempts to iteratively correct the field of residuals and juxtapose it to the estimated field for the best possible validation. The exit criterion is based on the Mean Average Error for the set of validation wells. These algorithms are applied to achieve piezometric reconstructions in Northeastern Italy, leveraging yearly water table data. The results show that the algorithm can learn the best spatial structure to fit experimental data, taking to an abrupt residuals drop after a few post-processing iterations within the post-processing phase. These results outperform any previous ones, leading to unprecedently accurate spatial estimations of the water table to unravel large-scale patterns in Northeastern Italy.

How to cite: Schiavo, M.: Advanced geostatistical modeling of piezometric data in Northeastern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20526, 2025.

EGU25-292 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Influence of Temperature on Streamflow Dynamics: A Multi-Catchment Analysis Using the PCMCI+ Causal Discovery Algorithm 

Hossein Abbasizadeh, Petr Maca, and Martin Hanel

While precipitation is the primary driver of streamflow variability, temperature also plays a significant role. Temperature influences streamflow by modifying precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. While this relationship is often studied using hydrological or black-box models, the causal effect of temperature dynamics on streamflow at the catchment scale is not fully understood. This study investigates the causal relationship between precipitation, temperature, and streamflow time series using the PCMCI+ causal discovery method. Having the causal structure, the total causal effect of temperature on stream flow is estimated. The analysis is conducted on CAMELS-GB (671 catchments) and LamaH (859 catchments) datasets to study the causal effects of temperature on streamflow across a wide range of catchments with different climate and physiographic characteristics. Preliminary results indicate that temperature significantly influences streamflow within a specific range, which changes over time for most catchments. The changes in the range within which the temperature has high causal effects on the temperature might be due to the shift in catchment storage and precipitation patterns, leading to a change in catchment response to temperature. These findings highlight the importance of identifying a relationship between temperature streamflow variability from a cause-and-effect perspective. This suggests that incorporating causal information can improve the modelling of the hydrological systems under changing climate. 

How to cite: Abbasizadeh, H., Maca, P., and Hanel, M.: Influence of Temperature on Streamflow Dynamics: A Multi-Catchment Analysis Using the PCMCI+ Causal Discovery Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-292, 2025.

EGU25-482 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

Equifinality in River Discharge Prediction Revealed Through Explainable AI  

Qiuyang Chen, Simon Mudd, and Simon Moulds

River discharge prediction is critical for water resource management, yet equifinality—where multiple model configurations achieve similar accuracy—complicates process understanding. We explored this phenomenon using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models trained on UK river basins, incorporating geomorphic descriptors derived from Digital Terrain Models and other environmental features from the CAMELS-GB dataset, including land cover, soil, and climate variables. Explainable AI techniques revealed that the models rely on different, yet equally effective, combinations of correlated features to achieve comparable performance. This variability underscores the complexity of hydrological systems and highlights the importance of integrating explainability and domain knowledge in machine learning to enhance model interpretability and robustness.

How to cite: Chen, Q., Mudd, S., and Moulds, S.: Equifinality in River Discharge Prediction Revealed Through Explainable AI , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-482, 2025.

EGU25-1863 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Predicting Water Movement in Unsaturated Soil Using Physics-Informed Deep Operator Networks 

Qiang Ye, Zijie Huang, Qiang Zheng, and Lingzao Zeng

Accurate modeling of soil water movement in the unsaturated zone is essential for effective soil and water resources management. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer promising potential for this purpose, but necessitate retraining upon changes in initial or boundary conditions, posing a challenge when adapting to variable natural conditions. To address this issue, inspired by the operator learning with more universal applicability than function learning, we develop a physics-informed deep operator network (PI-DeepONet), integrating physical principles and observed data, to simulate soil water movement under variable boundary conditions. In the numerical case, PI-DeepONet achieves the best performance among three modeling strategies when predicting soil moisture dynamics across different testing areas, especially for the extrapolation one. Guided by both data and physical mechanisms, PI-DeepONet demonstrates greater accuracy than HYDRUS in capturing spatio-temporal moisture variations in real-world scenario. Furthermore, PI-DeepONet successfully infers constitutive relationships and reconstructs missing boundary flux condition from limited data by incorporating known prior physical information, providing a unified solution for both forward and inverse problems. This study is the first to develop a PI-DeepONet specifically for modeling real-world soil water movement, highlighting its potential to improve predictive accuracy and reliability in vadose zone modeling by combining data-driven approaches with physical principles.

How to cite: Ye, Q., Huang, Z., Zheng, Q., and Zeng, L.: Predicting Water Movement in Unsaturated Soil Using Physics-Informed Deep Operator Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1863, 2025.

EGU25-2661 | Posters on site | HS3.3

Using explainable artificial intelligence as a diagnostic tool  

Sheng Ye, Jiyu Li, Yifan Chai, Lin Liu, Murugesu Sivapalan, and Qihua Ran

Recent applications have demonstrated the strength of deep learning (DL) in information extraction and prediction. However, its limitations in interpretability have delayed its popularity for use in facilitating advancement of hydrologic understanding. Here we present a framework using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) as a diagnostic tool to investigate distributed soil moisture dynamics within a watershed. Soil moisture and its movement generated by physically based hydrologic model were used to train a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, whose feature attribution was then evaluated by XAI methods. The aggregated feature importance presents abrupt rise in the model’s nodes located in riparian area, indicating threshold behavior in runoff generation and development of hydrologic connectivity at the watershed scale, which helps explain the rapid increase in streamflow. This work represents a demonstration of the potential of XAI to uncover underlying physical mechanisms and to help develop new theories from observed data.

How to cite: Ye, S., Li, J., Chai, Y., Liu, L., Sivapalan, M., and Ran, Q.: Using explainable artificial intelligence as a diagnostic tool , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2661, 2025.

EGU25-2740 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

A General Framework for Integrating Neural Networks into Numerical Resolution Methods for Spatially Distributed Hydrological Models 

Ngo Nghi Truyen Huynh, Pierre-André Garambois, Benjamin Renard, and Jérôme Monnier
Machine learning (ML) methods have been utilized in hydrology for decades. Recently, hybrid approaches that combine data-driven techniques with process-based models have gained attention, highlighting the complementary strengths of ML and physical models. However, the explicability and adaptability of such hybrid models remain open questions. This work introduces a general framework for incorporating neural networks (NNs) and ML techniques into a regionalizable, spatially distributed hydrological model. As a case study, a simple NN is employed to correct internal fluxes within a conceptual GR hydrological model that allows analytical integration. The corresponding hybrid ordinary differential equation set is integrated with an implicit numerical scheme solved by the Newton-Raphson method. Implementation in Fortran-based code supports differentiability, enabling the computation of the cost gradient through a combination of an adjoint model and analytical NN gradients. Results over a large catchment sample show promising improvements in model accuracy and provide insights into hydrological behaviors through interpretable NN outputs. These findings demonstrate the framework's potential to advance hybrid hydrological modeling by enhancing explicability and adaptability. Additionally, the proposed framework offers flexibility for integration into other modeling chains and applications across diverse geophysical models.

How to cite: Huynh, N. N. T., Garambois, P.-A., Renard, B., and Monnier, J.: A General Framework for Integrating Neural Networks into Numerical Resolution Methods for Spatially Distributed Hydrological Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2740, 2025.

EGU25-3859 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Explainable convolutional neural network for flood susceptibility mapping in Southern Ontario   

Rahma Khalid and Usman T Khan

Flood susceptibility mapping (FSM) plays a crucial role in proactive flood risk management, particularly in light of increasing fluvial flooding events. Traditional FSM methods, such as physics-based and qualitative approaches, are hindered by either high computational demands or inherent uncertainty. To address this, machine learning (ML) models have become an increasingly popular FSM approach, though commonly cited as black-box approaches due to the difficulty associated with understanding their underlying mechanisms. In order to better understand the ML approaches used for FSM, this study uses the gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) to interpret flood susceptibility predictions of a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the Don River watershed in Ontario, Canada. Grad-CAM is an explainable algorithm highlighting input regions that are influential to the output, aiding the user in understanding and visualizing model selected important features used to arrive at the prediction. Grad-CAM results are compared to the commonly used shapley additive explanation (SHAP) algorithm. SHAP is used to calculate the relative contribution of each input onto the output, and provides a benchmark for comparisons due to its popularity.

A two dimensional CNN with an architecture of two convolutional layers, two pooling layers and a fully connected layer is used to predict flood susceptibility. The inputs to the CNN include topographical and climactic variables across the entire watershed, with a 60-40% training and testing split respectively. The results of the CNN were compared against the floodplain map of the Don River. Using the area under curve- receiver operating characteristics (AUC-ROC) as a performance metric, the CNN exhibits high performance with an AUC-ROC of 0.96.

The study highlights the potential of CNNs for flood susceptibility mapping, as well as compares two explainable machine learning algorithms, helping to further their application within FSM. Explainable algorithms are essential to decision makers in flood risk management for proactive planning and resource allocation. Future work should explore expanding the scope to predict flood susceptibility at a nationwide level.

How to cite: Khalid, R. and Khan, U. T.: Explainable convolutional neural network for flood susceptibility mapping in Southern Ontario  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3859, 2025.

Floods are the costliest hazard in Canada in terms of direct infrastructure damage. Flood susceptibility modelling (FSM) identifies flood hazard areas; input features are dependent on the study area and modelling methods, which affect the reliability and accuracy of FS maps. Typical features in FSM are static topographical inputs (digital elevation model, land use, wetness index, height above nearest drainage, etc.). Though meteorological variables have been included in FSM, they are often low temporal resolution (e.g. annual); seasonal meteorological variables are often not included. The 2023 Canadian National FS map was developed using machine learning (ML) ensembles, with features that include historical flood events and 30 years of climate data. This research initiates the update to the existing Canadian FS map by expanding the suite of input features used and comparing the impact of three feature selection methods (partial correlation, partial mutual information, combined neural pathway strength) on three types of ML algorithms: random forest, artificial neural network (ANN) and convoluted neural network (CNN). The expanded set of features includes geospatial indices and flood-specific meteorological data such as spring temperature, precipitation, and vapour pressure. Data from preceding seasons to specific flood events is also included. Preliminary findings from the feature selection methods show that including seasonal flood-specific meteorological data provides important information leading to better model performance. Model performances of the three algorithms were comparable. Random forest with extreme gradient boosting led to the highest model performance (AUC = 0.98, F1 = 0.94), followed by CNN (AUC = 0.0.96, F1 = 0.90). ANN ensemble with leave-one-out-cross-validation resulted in the lowest model performance (AUC = 0.91, F1 = 0.85). Results contribute to the development of an improved national FS map for Canada.

How to cite: Dunbar, K. E., McGrath, H., and Khan, U. T.: Enhancing flood susceptibility modelling in Canada: Integrating seasonal meteorological data, feature selection and machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3871, 2025.

EGU25-4428 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

Towards Physics-consistent Foundation Models for Flood Forecasting 

Qingsong Xu and Xiao Xiang Zhu

Effective flood forecasting is critical for informed decision-making and timely emergency response. Traditional physical models, which rely on fixed-resolution spatial grids and input parameters, often incur substantial computational costs, limiting their capacity to accurately predict flood peaks and provide prompt hazard warnings.  This paper introduces methods to ensure physical consistency in machine learning models, aiming to develop a fast, stable, accurate, cross-regional, and downscaled neural flood forecasting foundation model. Specifically, we present a Physics-embedded Neural Network, which integrates the momentum and mass conservations of flood dynamics into a neural network. Additionally, we combine this Physics-embedded Neural Network with a diffusion-based generative model, enhancing physical process consistency for long-term, large-scale flood forecasting. We also briefly introduce other models that integrate physics and machine learning, such as the FloodCast model by incorporating hydrodynamic equations into its loss function to maintain physical consistency, and the UrbanFloodCast model by learning physical consistency from urban flood dynamic data. The performance of these models will be analyzed using our proposed FloodCastBench dataset, a comprehensive collection of low-fidelity and high-fidelity flood forecasting dataset and benchmark. Results from the dataset demonstrate that incorporating physical consistency significantly enhances flood forecasting accuracy, demystifies the black-box nature of machine learning frameworks, and increases confidence in addressing dynamical systems. Finally, we propose a Spatiotemporal Foundation Model capable of forecasting floods across a variety of scales and regions.

How to cite: Xu, Q. and Zhu, X. X.: Towards Physics-consistent Foundation Models for Flood Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4428, 2025.

EGU25-4845 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Using Causal Discovery to Identify Drivers and Controls of Streamflow in Large Sample Hydrology 

David Strahl, Sebastian Gnann, Karoline Wiesner, and Thorsten Wagener

Catchments are the fundamental units of hydrological analysis and integrate a vast number of physical, biological, and anthropogenic processes. Traditional hydrological modelling approaches, however, adopt a bottom-up perspective, aggregating small-scale physical principles to predict large-scale catchment behaviour. While effective for prediction, this approach can fall short in advancing our understanding of emergent processes and their interactions given the strong dependence on a priori assumptions. To address this gap, causal discovery algorithms offer a promising alternative by moving beyond simple correlation to directly identifying the dynamic causal structures emerging at the catchment scale. In this study, we applied the PCMCI+ algorithm to the CAMELS-US dataset in combination with a subsequent causal effect estimation. We explored how and to what extent dynamic causal structures can be learned from hydro-meteorological data alone, and which catchment properties and conditions influence their expression. We find that causal discovery in hydrology faces challenges due to non-stationarity, unsuitable conditional independence tests, and unmet methodological assumptions. Despite these limitations, our approach reconstructed physically plausible relationships controlled by meaningful catchment properties. These results highlight the potential of causal discovery in hydrology, where it could serve as a complementary framework for model evaluation studies or as an integral part of the model development process.

How to cite: Strahl, D., Gnann, S., Wiesner, K., and Wagener, T.: Using Causal Discovery to Identify Drivers and Controls of Streamflow in Large Sample Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4845, 2025.

EGU25-5052 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Can CNN-LSTM and lumped models improve (extreme) streamflow prediction of semi-distributed models? A comparative analysis of two hybrid frameworks 

Aseel Mohamed, Awad M. Ali, Ahmed Ali, Osama Hassan, Mohamed E. Elbasheer, and Mutaz Abdelaziz

Water resources management depends heavily on hydrological modeling for reservoir operation and risk mitigation, especially in data-scarce regions. Hybrid approaches that combine artificial intelligence and conceptual models offer great potential for accurate streamflow prediction. However, their implementation can be time-consuming and applied in different configurations. This study comprehensively compares two promising hybrid frameworks: the Conceptual-Data-Driven Approach (CDDA) and the Ensemble Approach. The analysis was conducted in the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia over the period from 2002 to 2019. Six baseline models were developed, including CNN-LSTM (data-driven), NAM and HBV-Light (lumped), and SWAT+, WEAP, and HEC-HMS (semi-distributed). All models achieved NSE ≥ 0.85 during the validation period, with CNN-LSTM performing best (NSE = 0.94). Each model was integrated into the two hybrid frameworks using Random Forest (RF) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Results showed that the Ensemble Approach outperformed CDDA by combining two conceptual models. ANN performed better than RF across both frameworks. Hybrid modeling significantly improved semi-distributed models, while lumped and data-driven models showed minimal benefits. In the Ensemble Approach, normal and extreme flows simulated using semi-distributed models performed best when supported by CNN-LSTM or lumped models. Our analysis also demonstrated the robustness of the Ensemble Approach for selecting the supporting model. These findings emphasize the value and feasibility of the Ensemble Approach for improving streamflow prediction and better supporting decision-making in data-scarce regions. Nevertheless, a thorough understanding of the opportunities in hybrid modeling requires further research with a specific focus on operational forecasting.

How to cite: Mohamed, A., M. Ali, A., Ali, A., Hassan, O., E. Elbasheer, M., and Abdelaziz, M.: Can CNN-LSTM and lumped models improve (extreme) streamflow prediction of semi-distributed models? A comparative analysis of two hybrid frameworks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5052, 2025.

EGU25-5727 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Using Explainable Artifical Intelligence (XAI) to Analyze the Behavior of Global Water Models 

Lea Faber, Karoline Wiesner, Ting Tang, Yoshihide Wada, and Thorsten Wagener

Model Intercomparison Projects in the Earth Sciences have shown, that the outputs of
Earth System Models often show large variations and can therefore give quite different results,
with no single model consistently outperforming others. Examples include Global Water
Models (GWMs), as well as Global Climate Models (GCMs). The high computational costs
of running such models make comprehensive statistical analyses challenging, a common issue
with many complex models today. Machine learning models have become popular surrogates
of slow process-based models, due to their computational speed, at least once trained. This
speed makes it possible to use techniques from Explainable AI (XAI) to analyze the behavior
of the surrogate model.
Here, we analyze long-term averages of the GWM ’Community Water Model’ (CWatM)
for different parts of the global domain for actual evapotranspiration Ea, total runoff Q and
groundwater recharge R. We train an artificial neural network on the model’s input and output
data and use three different strategies to assess the importance of input data: LassoNet for sub-
set selection and feature ranking, along with Sobol’ indices and DeepSHAP for interpretability.
Our results show that subset selection can effectively reduce model complexity before XAI
analysis. For some hydrological domains the number of relevant input
variables for a chosen output reduces to less then 15 variables out of 98 model inputs, while
others remain more complex, requiring many variables for performances with R2 > 0, 8.

How to cite: Faber, L., Wiesner, K., Tang, T., Wada, Y., and Wagener, T.: Using Explainable Artifical Intelligence (XAI) to Analyze the Behavior of Global Water Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5727, 2025.

EGU25-6278 | Orals | HS3.3

Training Surrogates with Knowledge and Data: A Bayesian Hybrid Modelling Strategy 

Anneli Guthke, Philipp Luca Reiser, and Paul Bürkner

Physics-based hydrological modelling provides great opportunities for risk assessment and water resources management. However, diagnostic model evaluation and quantitative uncertainty assessment remain a challenge: (1) Model choices, boundary conditions, and prior assumptions about input, parameter or data uncertainty might be hard to formulate or justify; (2) rigorous propagation of uncertainties struggles when the analysed model structure is not “true”, and (3) a full propagation of uncertainties is often computationally prohibitive for complex models.

Alternative approaches promote the extraction of information directly from data, thereby avoiding overly strict physics-based constraints and the pitfalls of uncertainty quantification. Challenges of these data-driven approaches include the lack (or difficulty of) explainability, transparency, and transferability to unseen scenarios.

To explore the frontier of where those two perspectives (should) converge, we investigate the potential of surrogate models (computationally cheaper, data-driven representations of complex models) as a binding link with several potential benefits: (1) they alleviate the computational burden and thereby allow for a fully Bayesian uncertainty analysis; (2) they are flexible enough to overcome structural deficits of the original complex model, thereby enabling a better predictive performance, and (3) being data-driven, we can elegantly fuse the information from available data into their training process.

Methodologically, we propose a weighted data-integrated training of surrogates via two competing approaches that differ technically, but also philosophically, and reveal complementing insights about the strengths and weaknesses of the physics-based model and about the additional information in the available data, thereby facilitating deeper system understanding and improved (hybrid) modelling. We demonstrate the proposed workflow on didactic examples and a real-world case study. We expect this approach to be generally useful for modelling dynamic systems, as it contributes to more realistic uncertainty assessment and opens up ways for model development.  

How to cite: Guthke, A., Reiser, P. L., and Bürkner, P.: Training Surrogates with Knowledge and Data: A Bayesian Hybrid Modelling Strategy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6278, 2025.

EGU25-7382 | Orals | HS3.3

Dynamical system neural network for hydrological modelling 

Derek Karssenberg

Neural networks are efficient and effective in predicting system states in hydrology. However, most current approaches lack hydrological flow partitioning, do not allow for training on measurements of multiple variables, or lack capability to tightly integrate physically-based components. To address these shortcomings I propose and evaluate an approach referred to below as Dynamical System Neural Network (DSNN). DSNN is a feedforward neural network with an architecture that resembles the organisation in components of the real-world system it represents. In hydrology, the DSNN represents each water flow (e.g. seepage, snow melt) by a collection of input, hidden, and output neural layers, where each input is the state of a hydrological storage (e.g. groundwater storage influencing seepage) or other variable (e.g. air temperature influencing snow melt). These components are interconnected to form a single neural network of the complete dynamical system considered, where all storages and flows are explicitly quantified. If physical understanding of a flow and its parameterization is available, a known formulation can be used as a replacement of a neural network component. The DSNN is applied forward in time, backpropagating gradients over all timesteps. It can be run in spatially lumped or semi-distributed mode. To demonstrate the approach, a DSNN is presented of the Austrian Dorfertal (Kals) Alpine catchment containing snow and subsurface water storages and associated flows including streamflow. The DSNN is trained, validated, and tested on daily streamflow over ~40 years. To explore the capability of the DSNN in estimating the magnitude and dynamics of internal system storages (snow water equivalent, subsurface water storage) and flows (evapotranspiration, sublimation, snowmelt, seepage), the DSNN is first trained and tested with streamflow data generated by a conceptual model. The DSNN turns out to be capable of reproducing - with a satisfactory level of precision - the system states and fluxes calculated by the conceptual model, with decreasing performance when measurement error is added to the artificially generated streamflow data before training. To explore its predictive performance, the DSNN is applied on measured streamflow data for the Dorfertal, comparing multiple DSNN setups that represent all flows as neural network components or only a subset of flows where remaining flows are represented with a standard conceptual model (e.g. linear reservoir). Preliminary results indicate that in predictive performance, in most setups, the DSNN outperforms a standard conceptual model trained on the same streamflow data, with NSE values for testing of 0.74 and 0.71, respectively. This preliminary result indicates DSNN to be a promising approach for blending process-based and neural network based modelling as well as for training (i.e. calibration) of neural network models on measurements of multiple hydrological variables as these are all explicitly represented by the DSNN and can thus be incorporated in the loss function (e.g. streamflow, snow depth, groundwater, evapotranspiration).

How to cite: Karssenberg, D.: Dynamical system neural network for hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7382, 2025.

EGU25-7770 | Orals | HS3.3

Advancing distributed hydrological modeling with hybrid machinelearning 

Yi Zheng, Chao Wang, and Shijie Jiang
Accurately simulating large-scale water dynamics is important
for managing water resources, addressing climate change impacts, and
understanding hydrological variability. Despite advances in hydrological
modeling, simulating water fluxes and states at global or regional
scales remains challenging due to the complexity of distributed
processes and limited understanding of key components. Encoding physical
knowledge in deep neural networks (NNs) for differentiable modeling
offers a promising solution but has yet to be fully realized for
distributed hydrological models, especially for processes such as river
routing.
This study presents a novel differentiable modeling framework that
bridges physical and data-driven approaches for distributed hydrological
modeling. The framework encodes a large-scale hydrological model (i.e.,
HydroPy) as a neural network, incorporates an additional NN to map
spatially distributed parameters from local climate and land attributes,
and employs NN-based modules to represent poorly understood processes.
Multi-source observations are used to constrain the system in an
end-to-end manner, with the Amazon Basin as a case study to demonstrate
the framework’s applicability and effectiveness.
Results show that the developed model improves simulation accuracy by
30-40% compared to the original hydrological model. Replacing the
Penman-Monteith formulation with NN produces more realistic potential
evapotranspiration estimates. SHAP analysis of the NN parameterization
further reveals how climate and land attributes regulate the spatial
variability of key parameters. Overall, by integrating physical realism
with the flexibility of machine learning, this framework addresses
critical limitations of traditional hydrological models. It provides a
scalable, interpretable approach to advance large-scale hydrological
modeling and address pressing water and climate challenges.

How to cite: Zheng, Y., Wang, C., and Jiang, S.: Advancing distributed hydrological modeling with hybrid machinelearning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7770, 2025.

EGU25-9176 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

GPU-Enabled Cell-to-Cell Routing in a High Resolution Hybrid Distributed Hydrological Model with Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data Assimilation: A Continental-Scale Computational Approach  

Mouad Ettalbi, Pierre-André Garambois, Ngo-Nghi-Truyen Huynh, Emmanuel Ferreira, and Nicolas Baghdadi

The integration of remote sensing observations into hydrological modeling frameworks presents a significant opportunity for improving spatial and temporal predictive capabilities across continental domains. This research introduces a novel hybrid distributed hydrological model that addresses key challenges in computational efficiency, by using a GPU-enabled computational infrastructure, and in predictive accuracy by assimilating multi-source remote sensing datasets, specifically satellite-based soil moisture and evapotranspiration, at a high spatial resolution (1km×1km) and temporal scale (hourly). The model addresses critical challenges in regional hydrological forecasting by leveraging advanced data assimilation techniques and machine learning methodologies.

The proposed hybrid modeling framework synthesizes physically-based distributed hydrologic modeling principles with data-driven machine learning approaches, facilitating a more comprehensive representation of land surface hydrological processes. A key innovation is the GPU-enabled cell-to-cell routing algorithm, which enables fast and efficient computational processing of complex hydrological connectivity and water movement across large spatial domains. By integrating remote sensing observations, the methodology enables enhanced initial condition specification and improved parameter estimation, particularly in regions characterized by sparse ground-based measurement networks.

Preliminary analytical results demonstrate significant improvements in model performance, particularly in capturing spatial and temporal variability of hydrological states and fluxes. The approach substantively advances current methodological capabilities in hydrological forecasting, offering a promising framework for developping enriched tensorial numerical solvers, addressing complex hydroclimatic prediction challenges in data-limited environments.

How to cite: Ettalbi, M., Garambois, P.-A., Huynh, N.-N.-T., Ferreira, E., and Baghdadi, N.: GPU-Enabled Cell-to-Cell Routing in a High Resolution Hybrid Distributed Hydrological Model with Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data Assimilation: A Continental-Scale Computational Approach , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9176, 2025.

EGU25-10256 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

Uncovering the Dynamic Drivers of Floods through Interpretable Deep Learning 

Yuanhao Xu and Kairong Lin

The formation of floods, as a complex physical process, exhibits dynamic changes in its driving factors over time and space under climate change. Due to the black-box nature of deep learning, its use alone does not enhance understanding of hydrological processes. The challenge lies in employing deep learning to uncover new knowledge on flood formation mechanism. This study proposes an interpretable framework for deep learning flood modeling that employs interpretability techniques to elucidate the inner workings of a peak-sensitive Informer, revealing the dynamic response of floods to driving factors in 482 watersheds across the United States. Accurate simulation is a prerequisite for interpretability techniques to provide reliable information. The study reveals that comparing the Informer with Transformer and LSTM, the former showed superior performance in peak flood simulation (NSE over 0.6 in 70% of watersheds). By interpreting Informer’s decision-making process, three primary flood-inducing patterns were identified: precipitation, excess soil water, and snowmelt. The controlling effect of dominant factors is regional, and their impact on floods in time steps shows significant differences, challenging the traditional understanding that variables closer to the timing of flood event occurrence have a greater impact. Over 40% of watersheds exhibited shifts in dominant driving factors between 1981-2020, with precipitation-dominated watersheds undergoing more significant changes, corroborating climate change responses. Additionally, the study unveils the interplay and dynamic shifts among variables. These findings suggest that interpretable deep learning, through reverse deduction, transforms data-driven models from merely fitting nonlinear relationships to effective tools for enhancing understanding of hydrological characteristics.

How to cite: Xu, Y. and Lin, K.: Uncovering the Dynamic Drivers of Floods through Interpretable Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10256, 2025.

Earth system data, measured by satellites and terrestrial stations and simulated by increasingly complex models, provide valuable information for identifying functional relationships within the Earth system. These relationships are essential for understanding complex interactions and predicting changes, for example, in climatic or ecological processes, but often only occur in certain spatiotemporal sections or within certain threshold values. With the increasing spatiotemporal resolution of remote sensing products and models, a manual analysis is impractical, and hypothesis-driven approaches can lead to undiscovered hidden relationships. Previous work proposed the SONAR (automated diScovery Of fuNctionAl Relationships) decision-tree algorithm to automatically search for functional relationships in earth system data without a-priori assumptions. We analyzed the proposed algorithm using artificially generated data to evaluate SONAR's functionality.  We tested if the choice of statistical indicator (Pearson’s r, Spearman’s ρ, Kendall’s τ, and Mutual Information) influences the functionality of the SONAR algorithm and which factors are important for the identification of functional relationships. Using 1512 synthetic data sets and the developed SAMPI (Similarity of A Manifested and Prototypical decision tree Indicator) coefficient, we demonstrate how the performance of the algorithm changes under different variations of the data sets - including the number of designated splits, the presence of interfering variables and the strength and nature of the underlying functional relationships. In particular, we show which statistical indicator provides the best results under these conditions. The results demonstrate that the SONAR algorithm is very versatile, especially when employing the most reliable statistical indicator. The SONAR algorithm could, therefore, have far-reaching applications, for example, in analyzing climatic patterns or investigating dependencies between environmental factors.

How to cite: Thöne, C., Bäthge, A., and Reinecke, R.: The effects of different statistical indicators in the new decision-tree-based SONAR algorithm for automated detection of functional relationships in Big Earth Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10444, 2025.

EGU25-11693 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Universal differential equations for estimating terrestrial evaporation 

Olivier Bonte, Diego G. Miralles, Akash Koppa, and Niko E. C. Verhoest

Terrestrial evaporation (E) is an essential climate variable, linking water, energy and carbon cycles. As E is influenced by the state of the atmospheric boundary layer, vegetation and soil, its modelling is a complex task, resulting in a myriad of simulation approaches. To combine the strong predictive skills of data-driven models with the interpretability and physical consistency of process-based models (PBMs), a new research field of differentiable modelling has emerged1

Here, we present a differentiable framework for E estimation, facilitating online training of NNs as intermediate PBM components. It is inspired by the GLEAM framework for estimating E, which applies offline training (i.e., outside the PBM) of neural networks (NNs) predicting evaporative stress2,3. Building upon the Julia SciML ecosystem’s implementation of universal differential equations4, a wide array of numerical methods are available for solving the PBM’s ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and calculating the parameter sensitivities5. In this way, the effect of the numerical methods on the obtained hybrid model can be investigated, moving beyond the direct automatic differentiation through explicit Euler solutions of ODEs as often applied in other hydrological hybrid modelling approaches. 

 

References

1Shen, C., Appling, A.P., Gentine, P. et al., Differentiable modelling to unify machine learning and physical models for geosciences, Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ., 4, 552–567, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00450-9

2Koppa, A., Rains, D., Hulsman, P. et al., A deep learning-based hybrid model of global terrestrial evaporation, Nat. Commun., 13, 1912, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29543-7

3Miralles, D. G., Bonte, O., Koppa, A. et al., GLEAM4: global land evaporation dataset at 0.1° resolution from 1980 to near present, preprint, 2024, https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5488631/v1 

4Rackauckas, C., Ma, Y.,  Martensen, J. et al., Universal differential equations for scientific machine learning, ArXiv, 2020, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2001.04385 

5Sapienza, F., Bolibar, J., Schäfer, F. et al., Differentiable Programming for Differential Equations: A Review, ArXiv, 2024, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.09699 

How to cite: Bonte, O., Miralles, D. G., Koppa, A., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: Universal differential equations for estimating terrestrial evaporation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11693, 2025.

EGU25-12068 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

A Physics-Constrained Emulator for High-Resolution Soil Moisture  

Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Elena Leonarduzzi, Christian M. Grams, and Vincent W. Humphrey

Like much of Europe, Switzerland is increasingly experiencing severe summer droughts and heatwaves, prompting the mandate for an advanced national drought monitoring and early warning system. A key component of this initiative is the generation of gridded soil moisture estimates that are spatially distributed, extending beyond measurement stations.  Here, we present the concept of a novel physics-constrained land surface model emulator designed to produce high-resolution (e.g. finer than 250m), gridded soil moisture estimates up to 2m depth across Switzerland's diverse topography and climatic conditions. 

This framework aims to integrate multi-source datasets, including in-situ measurements, and reanalysis products, to train a machine learning based (e.g. Convolutional LSTM, or XGBoost) hybrid emulator that ensures physically consistent outputs. Compared to conventional dynamical land surface models, an emulator has the advantage of being more computationally efficient and less constrained by the specific requirements of a given numerical model (in terms of input variables and technical dependencies). To fulfil the needs of a very diverse user community, ranging from numerical weather prediction to agricultural decision-making, the emulator should be optimized for multi-scale applications, from climatological analysis, to near-real-time monitoring, and to medium-term forecasting.

How to cite: Chang, A. Y.-Y., Leonarduzzi, E., Grams, C. M., and Humphrey, V. W.: A Physics-Constrained Emulator for High-Resolution Soil Moisture , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12068, 2025.

EGU25-12928 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3 | Highlight

Global Vegetation Stress Drivers based on Hybrid Modelling and Explainable AI 

Fangzheng Ruan, Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Olivier Bonte, Akash Koppa, Wantong Li, Gustau Camps Valls, Yuting Yang, and Diego G. Miralles

Terrestrial evaporation (E) is a critical component of the water cycle, returning nearly 60% of continental precipitation to the atmosphere and dissipating approximately 50% of surface net radiation. A prevalent approach for estimating E involves computing a theoretical maximum, known as potential evaporation (Ep), and scaling it based on a multiplicative stress factor, often referred to as “evaporative stress” (S) or “transpiration stress” (St) when specifically applied to plant transpiration. Like stomatal or surface conductance, St is governed by a complex nonlinear interplay of environmental drivers such as soil moisture, air temperature, radiation, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit. This complexity is not yet fully understood, which further hampers its accurate physical modelling and limits our ability to comprehend transpiration’s sensitivity to the changing environment.

The fourth generation of the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM4) has yielded a global dataset of transpiration by integrating multi-source remote sensing data following a hybrid approach, in which Ep is computed based on a process-based model and St is calculated by employing deep neural networks. These neural networks are trained on global eddy covariance and sap flow measurements for both tall and short vegetation, and are informed by a set of environmental controls or biotic factors. These factors include soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, atmospheric CO2 concentration, wind velocity, air temperature, downwelling shortwave radiation, LAI, and vegetation optical depth. Beyond the predictive capabilities of these deep neural networks, the relationships between environmental controls and St within these neural networks remain under exploration, leaving uncertainty as to whether GLEAM4 accurately represents real-world processes. To explore the relationships, we employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method, which quantifies the marginal contributions of predictors to model predictions, offering insights into the relative importance of environmental drivers in determining St.

Our findings highlight dominant St drivers across various climatic regimes and ecosystems, revealing their contributions' temporal evolution. Additionally, we investigate how St responds to shifts in environmental conditions, including climate and vegetation changes, water stress, atmospheric aridity, and rising CO2 levels. Our study enhances global understanding of transpiration dynamics and provides critical insights into the impacts of diverse hydroclimatic drivers, thereby supporting broader applications within the hydrology and climate communities.

How to cite: Ruan, F., M. Baez-Villanueva, O., Bonte, O., Koppa, A., Li, W., Camps Valls, G., Yang, Y., and G. Miralles, D.: Global Vegetation Stress Drivers based on Hybrid Modelling and Explainable AI, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12928, 2025.

EGU25-13311 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Hybrid hydrological modelling of the biophysical impacts of earth’s greening on streamflow 

Georgios Blougouras, Alexander Brenning, Mirco Migliavacca, and Markus Reichstein

Vegetation plays an important but complicated role in modulating land-atmosphere interactions and the water cycle. Under global change, increasing vegetation greenness trends have been observed, which further complicate the control of vegetation in the earth system. Despite growing interest in the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes, large uncertainties still exist, particularly when it comes to the underexplored response of streamflow to vegetation greening. In this study, we explore the watershed-relevant biophysical controls of vegetation greening on streamflow. In order to do so, we develop a hybrid ecohydrological model. This model adheres to the water balance principles, while it simultaneously has a flexible structure that enables integrating physical insights from observational data. The multi-task learning optimization ensures physical consistency across a range of processes and temporal frequencies, which allows us to investigate the cascading impacts of vegetation changes across the water cycle, leading up to the streamflow as an end-process. Ecohydrological insights are directly derived from observational data, while physically meaningful model parameters reflect how ecosystem functions and hydrological processes respond to vegetation changes. We find that the marked change in streamflow can be attributed to vegetation change controls on diverse biophysical processes. Our research highlights the potential of hybrid models to capture complex earth system processes by exploiting multiple observational data streams, machine learning and physical constraints.

How to cite: Blougouras, G., Brenning, A., Migliavacca, M., and Reichstein, M.: Hybrid hydrological modelling of the biophysical impacts of earth’s greening on streamflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13311, 2025.

Cyanobacterial blooms have become more frequent and intense in Lake Superior since 2012, primarily due to increased nutrient loads, with phosphorus being the main limiting factor. To protect water quality, extensive monitoring of lakes and streams is crucial, but it is not cost-effective or practical to measure nutrients frequently across all ecosystems. This study presents a cost-effective, transferable solution using machine learning (ML) models to predict phosphorus concentrations and loads based on conventional water quality parameters like streamflow, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, turbidity, transparency, and total suspended solids. The research introduces an explainable hybrid ML framework combining probabilistic principal component analysis (P2CA) with several ML models, including Bagging Ensemble Learning, Boosting Ensemble Learning, Gaussian Process Regression, and Support Vector Regression, to enhance prediction accuracy. Results demonstrate that the P2CA-Boosting Ensemble Learning model consistently outperforms other approaches. To confirm its effectiveness, the developed model was tested with the same input data from a different river catchment, proving it works well in different environments. This study highlights the potential of combining P2CA with Boosting Ensemble Learning as a powerful tool for water quality management in streams and rivers.

How to cite: Kumar, A. and Zhang, K.: Development of a hybrid machine learning model to predict total phosphorus in streams over the north shore of Lake Superior, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13799, 2025.

EGU25-15436 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

The Differentiable Distributed Regression Model (dDRM) Balancing Explainability and Predictive Performance 

Bjarte Beil-Myhre, Rajeev Shrestha, and Bernt Viggo Matheussen

The field of hydrology has undergone significant transformation over the past decade, driven by advancements in machine learning and data-driven techniques. A key breakthrough came from the work of Kratzert et al. (2018), who demonstrated that purely data-driven LSTM models could outperform traditional hydrological models in over 600 catchments across North America. However, while these models significantly improve predictive performance, they often sacrifice interpretability and explainability.

To address this trade-off, researchers have explored new approaches that merge physical principles with data-driven methods. One promising innovation is the concept of differentiable modeling, introduced by Chen et al. in 2022. This approach transforms physical models into differentiable functions, allowing neural networks to represent and learn model parameters. By doing so, differentiable modeling enhances flexibility while maintaining a foundation in physical principles.

This research presents a novel differentiable hydrological model called the Differentiable Distributed Regression Model (dDRM). The dDRM builds on the principles of differentiable modeling with the structure of a conceptually lumped model using a simplified representation of physics ("smooth" HBV model). Inspired by the simplicity of the LSTM model, which aggregates data at the catchment level rather than relying on a grid-based representation, we introduce four equally sized elevation zones instead of grid cells in the dDRM. These zones inherently reflect differences in hydrological processes, such as precipitation, temperature, and snowmelt dynamics, enabling the model to account for spatial heterogeneity while maintaining computational efficiency.

By leveraging the principles of differentiable modeling, the dDRM achieves a balance between explainability and predictive performance. To evaluate model performance, we tested the dDRM across sixty-three catchments in southern Norway, in a gauged setting. Only precipitation and temperature were used as input data. For benchmarking purposes, we also trained an LSTM model to the same catchments. 

Our results demonstrate that the dDRM outperforms the fine-tuned LSTM model in both daily predictions and cumulative runoff volumes. These findings underscore the potential of differentiable hydrological models to bridge the gap between performance and interpretability. By combining physical principles with data-driven techniques, the dDRM provides a pathway toward more effective and understandable forecasting tools in hydrology.

How to cite: Beil-Myhre, B., Shrestha, R., and Matheussen, B. V.: The Differentiable Distributed Regression Model (dDRM) Balancing Explainability and Predictive Performance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15436, 2025.

Groundwater is a critical resource for drinking water supply, agriculture, and ecosystems in general. In regions facing water scarcity, such as Brandenburg (Germany), effective groundwater management is essential. This requires accurate assessments of groundwater dynamics, which data-driven models can deliver through efficient and reliable groundwater level (GWL) predictions. To effectively develop and apply data-driven models for groundwater level prediction, a deeper understanding of which and how the input features influence the groundwater level prediction is crucial.

Our primary objective is to assess the impact of the input features of a Deep learning (DL) model that predicts GWLs using feature attribution methods. Specifically, the influence of climatic features as well as different land use patterns is examined. This study employs a global DL model based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to predict seasonal GWLs for 16 weeks ahead. We utilize a comprehensive set of features, including dynamic features such as climatic variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) and static features such as Corine land cover. By incorporating these, we aim to capture the complex interactions between climate, landuse and groundwater levels.

For the feature attribution itself, we apply the Shapley value sampling method. It analyses the effect of an alternation of an input feature to the respective chosen objective. The choice of that function is essential for the obtained results. We alternate the corresponding objective function in three distinct ways: first, by using the total change of the predicted GWL for the whole period of interest; second, per prediction horizon, i.e. per predicted week of the 16 week prediction; and third, through a decomposition into partial scale-respective signals of the period of interest using the discrete wavelet transform. Besides understanding which input features are most important for the predictive performance of the LSTM model, the results enable us to identify further aspects of the dynamics learned by the model. For example, if and when the model switches from extrapolation to prediction, and at which temporal scales different factors play a role; e.g. if forest vegetation is more important for seasonal or weekly effects on groundwater levels. This multi-faceted approach allows us to gain a deeper understanding of the factors influencing GWLs and their temporal dynamics, both for static and dynamic input features. Ultimately, feature attribution methods can enhance the awareness for reasonable land-use, hence, groundwater management and lead to better predictive models.

How to cite: Engel, M., Kunz, S., Wetzel, M., and Körner, M.: Multitemporal and Multiscale Feature Attribution Methods to Understand the Impact of Climatic and Land Use Features on the Prediction of Groundwater Levels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15651, 2025.

The Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) is a global satellite-based precipitation dataset that provides near real-time precipitation estimates by combining multiple satellite measurements. IMERG integrates microwave (MW) observations from low-orbit satellites with precipitation estimates inferred from the brightness temperature of geostationary infrared (IR) imagery. MW measurements provide accurate precipitation estimates due to their direct interaction with precipitation particles, while IR measurements offer broader spatial and temporal coverage by inferring precipitation from cloud-top brightness temperatures. Together, these complementary techniques balance precision and coverage to improve global precipitation monitoring. However, IR-based precipitation estimates are inherently less reliable due to the weak direct correlation between brightness temperature and precipitation. Conversely, MW-derived estimates are more accurate but spatially constrained by the limited footprint of low-orbit satellites. To investigate the contributing factors in IR precipitation error calibration, we leveraged ERA5 Land, a high-resolution reanalysis dataset that includes surface variables across nine domains, such as temperature, soil moisture, radiation, and vegetation indices. These variables offer a comprehensive lens for understanding the impact of the land surface on precipitation dynamics. We employed the XGBoost machine learning model to predict the errors in IR precipitation estimates relative to MW-derived benchmarks. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were used to interpret the model’s predictions, uncovering how individual input features contribute to error correction.


Our findings indicate that the explainable machine learning model can correct the infrared (IR) precipitation estimates to resemble microwave (MW) products, achieving notable improvements across statistical metrics. In the preliminary analysis of 165 countries and territories, the XGBoost model’s calibration improved the RMSE in all validation datasets, with a median reduction of 19.89% and an average reduction of 22.5%. Similarly, the correlation coefficient improved, with a median increase of 18.43% and an average increase of 54.49%. Moreover, the spatial and temporal distributions of the variables' SHAP values show various patterns. The clustered spatial distribution may represent the local climate attributes in specific geographic regions, providing insights into how regional environmental factors influence precipitation estimates. Meanwhile, the temporal distribution may imply seasonal variation, which can help identify patterns in precipitation dynamics and refine IR-based calibration by accounting for temporal variability in precipitation processes. This study provides a robust framework for leveraging land surface variables to refine IR-based precipitation products. By integrating reanalysis data with machine learning models, we present a scalable solution for improving precipitation monitoring in data-sparse regions, particularly where MW observations are unavailable.

How to cite: Hung, H. T. and Wang, L.-P.: IRMerg: Enhancing Global Infrared Precipitation Estimates with Land Surface Variables and Contributing Factors Analysis Using Explainable Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16863, 2025.

EGU25-16971 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

The Extrapolation Dilemma in Hydrology: Unveiling the extrapolation properties of data-driven models 

Sanika Baste, Daniel Klotz, Eduardo Espinoza, Andras Bardossy, and Ralf Loritz

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have shown strong performance in rainfall–runoff modelling, often surpassing conventional hydrological models in benchmark studies. However, recent studies raise questions about their ability to extrapolate, particularly under extreme conditions that exceed the range of their training data. This study examines the performance of a stand-alone LSTM trained on 196 catchments in Switzerland when subjected to synthetic design precipitation events of increasing intensity and varying duration. The model’s response is compared to that of a hybrid model and evaluated against hydrological process understanding. Our study reiterates that the stand-alone LSTM is characterised by a theoretical prediction limit, and we show that this limit is below the range of the data the model was trained on. We show that saturation of the LSTM cell states alone does not fully account for this characteristic behaviour, as the LSTM does not reach full saturation, particularly for the 1-day events. Instead, its gating mechanisms prevent new information about the current extreme precipitation from being incorporated into the cell states. Adjusting the LSTM architecture, for instance, by increasing the number of hidden states, and/or using a larger, more diverse training dataset can help mitigate the problem. However, these adjustments do not guarantee improved extrapolation performance, and the LSTM continues to predict values below the range of the training data or show hydrologically unfeasible runoff responses during the 1-day design experiments. Despite these shortcomings, our findings highlight the inherent potential of stand-alone LSTMs to capture complex hydro-meteorological relationships. We argue that more robust training strategies and model configurations could address the observed limitations, ensuring the promise of stand-alone LSTMs for rainfall–runoff modelling.

How to cite: Baste, S., Klotz, D., Espinoza, E., Bardossy, A., and Loritz, R.: The Extrapolation Dilemma in Hydrology: Unveiling the extrapolation properties of data-driven models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16971, 2025.

EGU25-18102 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

In the application of physically-based and interpretable AI-based models for streamflow simulation 

Sara Asadi, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Adrián López-Ballesteros, and Javier Senent-Aparicio

Precise streamflow forecasting in river systems is crucial for water resources management and flood risk assessment. This study focuses on the Tagus Headwaters River Basin (THRB) in Spain, a key hydrological basin providing essential water for urban, industrial, and irrigation purposes. Additionally, a significant portion of its water resources is transferred to the Segura River Basin through the Tagus-Segura water transfer, Spain’s most extensive hydraulic infrastructure. Given that nearly all available water in the THRB is allocated for these demands, precise streamflow forecasting is vital. For streamflow estimation in this basin, we evaluated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+), a physically-based model, and three AI-based models: support vector regression (SVR), feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, across four gauging stations within the THRB. For the AI-based models, rainfall and time-lagged runoff data were used as input data. Additionally, an ensemble machine learning technique was evaluated, using the outputs of both physically-based and AI-based individual models as inputs for the ensemble model. The results show that the AI-based models and the ensemble machine learning technique significantly outperformed the SWAT+ model. While the precision of the AI-based models was considerably higher than that of the SWAT+ model, the application of the ensemble technique enhanced the precision of the AI-based models by 18 to 26% during the calibration period and 4.1 to 9.2% during the validation period. Furthermore, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) methodology was used to explore how each model contributes to the predictions in the ensemble technique. This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, under grants PID2021-128126OA-I00.

How to cite: Asadi, S., Jimeno-Sáez, P., López-Ballesteros, A., and Senent-Aparicio, J.: In the application of physically-based and interpretable AI-based models for streamflow simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18102, 2025.

EGU25-18468 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

An automated machine learning framework for multi-depth soil moisture prediction using hydro-meteorological datasets 

Vidhi Singh, Abhilash Singh, and Kumar Gaurav

 Soil moisture, one of the essential climate variables, forms a fundamental bridge between hydro-meteorological processes and influence climate dynamics. It is extremely variable and is driven by numerous hydrological, agricultural and ecological factors. Soil moisture subsequently impacts soil forming processes, root zone water availability, infiltration rates, runoff, groundwater storage and vegetation-soil interaction. Despite its significant contribution in hydro-ecological interaction, its variability at subsurface is not yet explored adequately. Precise estimation of soil moisture at various depths is crucial because it affects water retention characteristics and modulates the vertical and lateral movement of water within the soil profile. This subsurface information is integral to understanding recharge rates, groundwater interactions, and the overall water balance within a catchment. In this study, we present an automated machine learning framework designed to predict soil moisture at multiple depths of 10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm, and 40 cm leveraging Bayesian optimization. We collected data from our hydrological observatory set up constituting an automatic weather station, a pan evaporimeter and a soil moisture recorder. To evaluate model performance, we categorized the dataset into four scenarios (S1, S2, S3, and S4), with each subsequent scenario incorporating a greater number of observations and rainfall events. We used 11 input features to train this AutoML model by integrating several hydrological and meteorological variables with in-situ soil moisture data. Among the predictor variables, humidity, dew point, and rainfall emerged as the most influential factors driving soil moisture variability. The model was trained to calculate the performance metrices for the entire dataset and for subsets containing only rainfall instances. Our optimized model demonstrated superior performance, with an R² of 0.88–0.99 and RMSE < 0.022 for the overall dataset, and R² of 0.76–1.00 with RMSE < 0.06 for rainfall-specific data across all soil moisture depths.

How to cite: Singh, V., Singh, A., and Gaurav, K.: An automated machine learning framework for multi-depth soil moisture prediction using hydro-meteorological datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18468, 2025.

EGU25-19057 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.3

Inference of catchment areas from modeled discharge dynamics 

Fedor Scholz, Christiane Zarfl, Thomas Scholten, and Martin V. Butz

The delineation of catchment areas from elevation is a fundamental step in lumped process-based models (PBMs). Most machine learning (ML) approaches for rainfall-runoff modeling spatially aggregate inputs to represent basin-wide processes. Elevation-based lumping, however, disregards both human interventions such as drainages and underground hydrological flows, which can lead to significant model inaccuracies. In this work, we employ DRRAiNN (Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Artificial Neural Network) – a fully distributed neural network architecture – to infer catchment areas directly from observed precipitation and discharge dynamics without prior delineations.

As a first evaluation of the potential to infer actual catchment areas with DRRAiNN, we trained the model on relatively sparse data from 2006 until 2015: Radolan-based hourly precipitation data as input with a spatial resolution of 4x4 km and only daily discharge measurements from 17 stations in the Neckar river basin as target output. Elevation and solar radition were given as additional parameterization input. As DRRAiNN is fully differentiable, we were then able to infer station-specific attribution maps via backpropagation through space and time. To evaluate the alignment between the inferred attribution maps and elevation-based catchment areas, we compute the Wasserstein distance between attributions inside and outside the catchment boundaries. A higher distance indicates better agreement. The results show that DRRAiNN learns to propagate water in a physically plausible manner. Further, we reveal deviations that indicate additional water flows that are undetectable from elevation data alone. Our findings thus suggest that DRRAiNN captures key rainfall-runoff dynamics while avoiding the limitations of lumped models.

The quantitative evaluations alongside qualitative comparisons underscore the model’s potential for uncovering hidden hydrological processes. We show that catchment area estimates can be inferred from relatively little discharge data, which may, in the future, potentially be substituted by satellite data. As a result, DRRAiNN may be applicable in ungauged catchments. Given actual discharge measurements or discharge estimations, DRRAiNN can be used to analyze the hydrological dynamics of surface and subsurface runoff as well as baseflow esimations and has the potential to uncover unexpected and unknown runoff dynamics that would not be detectable otherwise.

How to cite: Scholz, F., Zarfl, C., Scholten, T., and Butz, M. V.: Inference of catchment areas from modeled discharge dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19057, 2025.

EGU25-20878 | ECS | Orals | HS3.3

High-Resolution Differentiable Models for Operational National and Global Water Modeling and Assessment 

Yalan Song, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, and Farshid Rahmani

Continental and global water models have long been trapped in slow growth and inadequate predictive power, as they are not able to effectively assimilate information from big data. While Artificial Intelligence (AI) models greatly improve performance, purely data-driven approaches do not provide strong enough interpretability and generalization. One promising avenue is “differentiable” modeling that seamlessly connects neural networks with physical modules and trains them together to deliver real-world benefits in operational systems. Differentiable modeling (DM) can efficiently learn from big data to reach state-of-the-art accuracy while preserving interpretability and physical constraints, promising superior generalization ability, predictions of untrained intermediate variables, and the potential for knowledge discovery. Here we demonstrate the practical relevance of a high-resolution, multiscale water model for operational continental-scale and global-scale water resources assessment. (https://bit.ly/3NnqDNB). Not only does it achieve significant improvements in streamflow simulation compared to the established national- and global water models, but it also produces much more reliable depictions of interannual changes in large river streamflow, freshwater inputs to estuaries, and groundwater recharge. 

How to cite: Song, Y., Shen, C., Ji, H., and Rahmani, F.: High-Resolution Differentiable Models for Operational National and Global Water Modeling and Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20878, 2025.

EGU25-935 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Characterizing possible failure modes: Insights from LSTM-Based Streamflow Predictions 

Sarth Dubey, Pravin Bhasme, and Udit Bhatia

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have become popular for streamflow prediction in hydrological systems due to their ability to model sequential data. However, their reliance on lumped catchment representation and climate summaries often limits their capacity to capture spatial heterogeneity in rainfall patterns and evolving rainfall trends, both of which are critical for hydrological consistency. This study explores the limitations of LSTM-based streamflow predictions by employing a distributed conceptual hydrological model, SIMHYD, coupled with Muskingum-Cunge routing, to generate synthetic datasets representing diverse hydroclimatic conditions. These datasets are designed to replicate rainfall-runoff dynamics across selected catchments from all 18 ecoregions in CAMELS-US and key Indian river basins, providing a robust testbed for evaluating model performance under controlled conditions. The pre-trained LSTM model is tested against synthetic discharge data, enabling direct comparisons to assess its ability to simulate realistic hydrological responses. Performance is evaluated using multiple metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), and mean peak timing errors, to identify systematic deviations. Results reveal that LSTM models struggle with spatially variable and temporally shifting rainfall patterns, leading to inaccuracies in peak flow timing, magnitude, and overall discharge volumes. These issues highlight vulnerabilities in current LSTM-based flood forecasting systems, particularly in their ability to generalize across diverse climatic conditions and regions. This study also characterizes specific failure pathways, such as underestimation of extreme events and poor temporal coherence in hydrographs, which are critical for operational forecasting. By diagnosing these limitations, the study provides a framework for integrating process-based hydrological knowledge with data-driven techniques to improve model robustness. The findings underscore the importance of using synthetic datasets and diverse diagnostic tools to evaluate and enhance the reliability of LSTM-based models, paving the way for hybrid approaches capable of addressing the complexities of real-world hydrological systems.

How to cite: Dubey, S., Bhasme, P., and Bhatia, U.: Characterizing possible failure modes: Insights from LSTM-Based Streamflow Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-935, 2025.

EGU25-1644 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Graph-enhanced Neural Operator for Missing Velocities Infilling in River Surface Velocimetry 

Xueqin Chen, Hessel Winsemius, and Riccardo Taormina

Measuring river surface velocity enables river discharge estimation, a fundamental task for hydrologists, environmental scientists, and water resource managers. While traditional image-based velocimetry methods are often effective, they struggle to produce complete velocity fields under complex environmental conditions. Poor lighting, reflective glare, lack of visible surface features, or excessive turbulence can all result in regions where feature tracking fails, leading to gaps in the resolved velocity field. Addressing these gaps through the reconstruction of missing velocity measurements is an important research challenge. Recently, researchers have employed deep learning to address various hydrology problems, demonstrating promising improvements. In this work, we propose a neural operator-based model to address the challenge of missing velocities in river surface velocimetry. Specifically, our model is based on the Fourier neural operator with a graph-enhanced lifting layer. It is trained on the river surface velocimetry reconstruction task using a self-supervised paradigm. Once trained, it can be used to infer missing velocities in unseen samples. Experiments conducted on a dataset collected from a river in the Netherlands demonstrate our approach’s ability to accurately infill missing surface velocities, even when faced with large amounts of missing data. We attribute this robustness to the neural operator’s ability to learn continuous functions, which enhances our model’s capacity for high-level feature representation and extraction. Our findings suggest that the reconstructed velocity fields produced by our model can act as reliable ground truth data for deep learning-based methods. In the future, we aim to improve our model’s performance and generalization by incorporating additional data collected from a wider range of rivers and under varying environmental conditions.

How to cite: Chen, X., Winsemius, H., and Taormina, R.: Graph-enhanced Neural Operator for Missing Velocities Infilling in River Surface Velocimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1644, 2025.

EGU25-2616 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Dual-Source Adaptive-Fusion Transfer Learning for Hydrological Forecasting in Data-scarce Catchments 

Yuxuan Gao and Dongfang Liang

Historical records observed at hydrological stations are scarce in many regions, bringing significant challenges to the hydrological predictions for these regions. Transfer learning (TL), increasingly applied in hydrology, leverages knowledge from data-rich catchments (sources) to enhance predictions in data-scarce catchments (targets), providing new insight into data-scarce region predictions. Most existing TL approaches pre-train models using large meteoro-hydrological datasets to improve overall generalizability to target catchments. However, the predictive performance for specific catchments would be constrained due to irrelevant source data inputs and the lack of effective source fusion strategies. To address these challenges, this study proposes the Dual-Source Adaptive Fusion TL Network (DSAF-Net), which utilizes a pre-trained dual-branch feature extraction module (DBFE) to extract knowledge from two carefully selected source catchments, minimizing noise and redundancy associated with larger datasets. A cross-attention fusion module is then incorporated to dynamically identify key knowledge of the target catchment and adaptively fuse complementary information. This fusion module is embedded after each layer in the DBFE to enhance multi-level feature integration. Results demonstrate that DSAF-Net achieves superior prediction accuracy to single-source TL and large dataset TL strategies. These findings highlight the potential of DSAF-Net to advance hydrological forecasting and support water resource management in data-scarce regions.

How to cite: Gao, Y. and Liang, D.: Dual-Source Adaptive-Fusion Transfer Learning for Hydrological Forecasting in Data-scarce Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2616, 2025.

EGU25-2761 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Forecasting Reservoir Inflows Using Regionally Trained and Finetuned LSTM Models: A Case Study with CAMELS-DE 

Gregor Johnen, Andre Niemann, Patrick Nistahl, Alexander Dolich, and Alexander Hutwalker

The increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, poses significant challenges for operators of drinking water reservoirs in maintaining a balance between water supply and demand. While the security of supply typically requires high water levels to meet consumer demands throughout the year, ensuring flood protection, on the contrary, necessitates that reservoir storage is kept partially free to accommodate high inflows. Accurate inflow forecasting is essential for making risk-based operational decisions, including the timely release of water from drinking water reservoirs to mitigate flood risks. While deep learning approaches, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have become prevalent in rainfall-runoff modeling, most existing studies focus on small, homogeneous datasets limited to single hydrological basins. This study leverages the newly published CAMELS-DE dataset to develop a regionally trained and finetuned LSTM model encompassing 1,582 catchments across Germany. We apply this regional model to five small catchments upstream of drinking water reservoirs and compare its performance against basin-specific LSTM models. Our findings demonstrate that the regionally trained LSTM model significantly improves the accuracy of inflow estimates, especially when finetuned to our target catchments. This is highlighting its potential for enhancing reservoir management strategies in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Johnen, G., Niemann, A., Nistahl, P., Dolich, A., and Hutwalker, A.: Forecasting Reservoir Inflows Using Regionally Trained and Finetuned LSTM Models: A Case Study with CAMELS-DE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2761, 2025.

EGU25-4247 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

From multiple meteorological forecasts to river runoff: Learning and adjusting real-time biases to enhance predictions 

Oliver Konold, Moritz Feigl, Christoph Klingler, and Karsten Schulz

Deep learning models such as the Long Short Term Memory Network (LSTM) are capable of representing rainfall-runoff relationships and outperform classical hydrological models in gauged and ungauged settings (Kratzert et al., 2018). Previous studies have shown that combining multiple precipitation data in a single LSTM significantly improves the accuracy of simulated runoff, as the neural network learns to combine temporal and spatial patterns of inputs (Kratzert et al., 2021). However, every operational runoff forecasting setting requires meteorological forecasts. Nearing et al. (2024) have developed a global runoff forecast model based on an LSTM, with an ECMWF forecasting product as additional input over the forecast horizon. Compared with observed or reanalysis meteorological input data, forecasting products generally have a lower accuracy, with different reliabilities between various forecasting products. This is where the synergies of several meteorological forecasts combined with historical observational and reanalysis data can be used in a single deep learning model.

This study investigates how well LSTMs can predict runoff when trained on (1) multiple archived meteorological forecasts and (2) a combination of multiple archived meteorological forecasts and reanalysis data. All meteorological input data are aggregated to the catchments of the LamaH-CE dataset (Klingler, Schulz and Herrnegger, 2021). Runoff predictions are evaluated for a 24 hours forecasting horizon.  Preliminary analyses indicate that the coupling of reanalysis data and forecasting products from different sources improves the accuracy of operational runoff forecasting, suggesting that the model is able to learn and adjust real-time biases in forecasting data.

 

Klingler, C., Schulz, K. and Herrnegger, M. (2021) ‘LamaH-CE: LArge-SaMple DAta for Hydrology and Environmental Sciences for Central Europe’, Earth System Science Data, 13(9), pp. 4529–4565. DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-4529-2021.

Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Brenner, C., Schulz, K. and Herrnegger, M. (2018) ‘Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(11), pp. 6005–6022. DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-6005-2018.

Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Hochreiter, S. and Nearing, G.S. (2021) ‘A note on leveraging synergy in multiple meteorological data sets with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling’, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(5), pp. 2685–2703. DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-2685-2021.

Nearing, G., Cohen, D., Dube, V., Gauch, M., Gilon, O., Harrigan, S., Hassidim, A., Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Metzger, A., Nevo, S., Pappenberger, F., Prudhomme, C., Shalev, G., Shenzis, S., Tekalign, T.Y., Weitzner, D. and Matias, Y. (2024) ‘Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds’, Nature, 627(8004), pp. 559–563. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07145-1.

How to cite: Konold, O., Feigl, M., Klingler, C., and Schulz, K.: From multiple meteorological forecasts to river runoff: Learning and adjusting real-time biases to enhance predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4247, 2025.

EGU25-4387 | Orals | HS3.4

Runoff Forecasting in Unmeasured Catchments and Rapid Flash Flood Prediction Based on Deep Learning. 

binlan zhang, qingsong xu, and chaojun ouyang

Runoff forecasting is a long-standing challenge in hydrology, particularly in unmeasured catchments and rapid flash flood prediction. For unmeasured catchment forecasting, we introduce the encoder-decoder-based dual-layer long short-term memory (ED-DLSTM) model[1]. This model fuses static spatial granularity attributes with temporal dynamic variables to achieve streamflow forecasting at a global scale. ED-DLSTM reaches an average Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.75 across more than 2000 catchments from historical datasets in the United States, Canada, Central Europe, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, ED-DLSTM is applied to 150 fully ungauged catchments in Chile, achieving a high NSE of 0.65. The interpretability of the transfer capacities of ED-DLSTM is effectively tracked through the cell state induced by adding a spatial attribute encoding module, which can spontaneously form hydrological regionalization effects after performing spatial coding for different catchments.

Moreover, rapid flood prediction with daily resolution is challenged to capture changes in runoff over short periods. To address this, we also propose a benchmark evaluation for runoff and flood forecasting based on deep learning (RF-Bench) at an hourly scale. We introduce the Mamba model to hydrology for the first time. The benchmark also includes Dlinear, LSTM, Transformer, and its improved versions (Informer, Autoformer, Patch Transformer). Results indicate that the Patch Transformer exhibits optimal predictive capability across multiple lead times, while the traditional LSTM model demonstrates stable performance, and the Mamba model strikes a good balance between performance and stability. We reveal the attention patterns of Transformer models in hydrological modeling, finding that attention is time-sensitive and that the attention scores for dynamic variables are higher than those for static attributes.

Our work [2,3] provides the hydrological community with an open-source, scalable platform, contributing to the advancement of deep learning in the field of hydrology.

 

[1] Zhang, B., Ouyang, C., Cui, P., Xu, Q., Wang, D., Zhang, F., Li, Z., Fan, L., Lovati, M., Liu, Y., Zhang, Q., 2024. Deep learning for cross-region streamflow and flood forecasting at a global scale. The Innovation 5, 100617. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2024.100617

[2] Zhang, B., Ouyang, C., Wang, D., Wang, F., Xu, Q., 2023. A PANN-Based Grid Downscaling Technology and Its Application in Landslide and Flood Modeling. Remote Sensing 15, 5075. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15205075

[3] Xu, Q., Shi, Y., Bamber, J.L., Ouyang, C., Zhu, X.X., 2024. Large-scale flood modeling and forecasting with FloodCast. Water Research 264, 122162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122162

How to cite: zhang, B., xu, Q., and ouyang, C.: Runoff Forecasting in Unmeasured Catchments and Rapid Flash Flood Prediction Based on Deep Learning., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4387, 2025.

EGU25-4500 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Leveraging Graph Neural Networks for water level prediction 

George Koutsos, Panagiotis Kossieris, Vasiliki Thomopoulou, and Christos Makropoulos

Accurate water level prediction is essential for flood risk management, water resources management, inland water transportation and climate resilience. Traditional statistical methods, such as autoregressive models, and physically-based hydrological simulations, have been widely used in water level forecasting. However, these approaches often struggle to capture complex, dynamic, and nonlinear interactions in a hydrological system, particularly those affected by climate change. In recent years, machine learning models have emerged as a promising alternative, offering improved predictive accuracy and adaptability across varying environmental conditions. A special type of such models is the Graph Neural Network (GNN), which focuses especially on the reproduction of spatial dependencies, and hence it can be employed to capture the spatial dynamic of the hydrologic/hydraulic system, by treating hydrological networks as graph structures (e.g. nodes as gauges). Going one step further, GNN models can be combined with sequence-based machine learning techniques, such as the Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, to capture simultaneously the spatial and temporal dynamics of the system. In this work, we develop and assess a series of advanced hybrid-graph structured machine learning models (such as GNN-LSTM) to make hydrometric predictions across a long river channel. The developed models will be assessed on the basis of alternative performance metrics and against a series of traditional benchmark statistical and machine learning models such as ARIMA and LSTM respectively. As a test case, we exploit data from 19 water level gauges in the Red River of the North, which spans 885 km, serving the natural boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota and has experienced several severe historical flood events.

How to cite: Koutsos, G., Kossieris, P., Thomopoulou, V., and Makropoulos, C.: Leveraging Graph Neural Networks for water level prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4500, 2025.

EGU25-4683 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Classification-Enhanced LSTM Model for Predicting River Water Levels 

Jiaming Luo

River level predicting underpins the management of water resource projects, steers navigational activities in rivers, and protects the lives and properties of riverside communities, etc. Traditionally, hydrological-hydraulic coupled models have been at the forefront of simulating and predicting river levels, achieving notable success. Despite their utility, these models encounter limitations due to the exhaustive demand for various data types—often difficult to obtain—and the ambiguity in determining downstream boundary conditions for the hydraulic model. Responding to these limitations, this study utilizes Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, a deep learning technique, to predict river levels using upstream discharges. Three approaches were used to further enhance the accuracy and reliability of our model. Firstly, we incorporated historical water level data at or downsteam of the predicted station as input, secondly, we classified the datasets based on physical principles, and thirdly, we employed data augmentation techniques. These methods were evaluated within the Jingjiang-Dongting river-lake system in China. It achieves high prediction accuracy of water level and can mitigate the impact of input inaccuracies. The incorporation of water level data as input and the Classification-Enhanced LSTM model that segregates the input data according to rising and recession trends of water level,significantly improve prediction accuracy under extreme water level conditions compared with other deep learning approaches. The proposed model uses easily accessible data to predict water levels, offering enhanced robustness and new strategies for improving prediction accuracy under extreme conditions. It is applicable for predicting water levels at any hydrological station along a river and can enhance the prediction accuracy of hydraulic models by proving a robust downstream boundary condition.

How to cite: Luo, J.: Classification-Enhanced LSTM Model for Predicting River Water Levels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4683, 2025.

EGU25-6294 | Orals | HS3.4

Improving generalization of soil moisture prediction using self-supervised learning 

Lijun Wang, Liangsheng Shi, and Shijie Jiang

Accurate soil moisture prediction is increasingly important due to its critical role in water resource management and agricultural sustainability under global climate change. While machine learning models have achieved high accuracy in soil moisture prediction, their ability to generalize to different environmental and meteorological conditions remains a significant challenge. Existing models often perform poorly when applied to conditions that differ from their training data, highlighting the need for approaches that improve generalization while effectively capturing underlying soil moisture dynamics.

In this study, we propose a novel soil moisture prediction model that combines self-supervised learning with a Transformer architecture. The performance of the model was compared with the widely used Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach to evaluate its ability to generalize. The proposed model outperformed the baseline in tasks such as capturing extreme soil dryness, adapting to unobserved meteorological humidity conditions, and forecasting soil moisture dynamics at untrained depths. Further analysis revealed that the model’s success stems from its capability to learn comprehensive representations of underlying soil moisture processes. These results highlight the potential of advanced deep learning methods to improve prediction and our process understanding of soil hydrology in a changing climate.

How to cite: Wang, L., Shi, L., and Jiang, S.: Improving generalization of soil moisture prediction using self-supervised learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6294, 2025.

EGU25-7020 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Improving high-flow forecasting using dynamic multimodal feature fusion 

Konstantina Theodosiadou, Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen, and Andrew Barnes

This study evaluates a new approach to improving streamflow forecasting with deep learning: it focuses on the novel application of a dynamic multimodal feature fusion mechanism that adapts fusion operations based on the data's characteristics. Two baseline Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used, applying two dynamic fusion methods: dynamic operation-level fusion and attention-based fusion, to combine heterogeneous and multisource hydrometeorological data. The models are used for univariate (single flow gauge) and multivariate (multi-gauge) streamflow forecasting approaches. Applying these four approaches to the Severn Basin in the UK, known for long medium- to high-flow periods and shorter low-flow intervals, shows that the dynamic operation-level fusion consistently improved over the attention-based fusion in key performance metrics. In the multivariate case, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) improved by 1.43%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreased by 1.73%, Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) dropped by 1.82%, and high-peak MAE decreased by 3.36%. For the univariate case, NSE improved by 1.44%, MAE decreased by 4.02%, MASE dropped by 3.89%, and high-peak MAE improved by 2.8%. In addition, multivariate models were considerably faster than univariate models, with training and inference times reduced by 74.57% and 73.81%, respectively. The multivariate models showed a 2.75% increase in NSE and a 72.04% decrease in MASE, indicating they captured better the hydrologic variability than the univariate models. Conversely, univariate models had a 20.59% lower MAE, a 21.17% lower high-peak MAE, and greater stability as indicated by tighter interquartile ranges, suggesting better error minimisation and more reliable predictions. Notably, in two river stations all models underperformed due to rapid flow variability and flashy hydrological responses in smaller catchment areas, suggesting in the future the use of higher-resolution climatic data. Overall, the study shows the potential of new dynamic multimodal fusion techniques, navigating the operational trade-offs between speed, stability, and accuracy across multi and uni-variate training strategies in streamflow forecasting. Nonetheless, the need for an optimal operational balance remains, suggesting further refinement of fusion techniques and focusing on minimising uncertainty.

How to cite: Theodosiadou, K., Rodding Kjeldsen, T., and Barnes, A.: Improving high-flow forecasting using dynamic multimodal feature fusion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7020, 2025.

EGU25-7094 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Enhancing River Nutrient Predictions with Extreme Weather Indices and DL-Physical Hybrid Structures for Improved Interpretability 

Jiayi Tang, Leyang Liu, Kwok Chun, and Ana Mijic

Accurate nutrient predictions are crucial for river water quality management. While deep learning (DL) has shown promise in various Earth science applications, challenges such as data scarcity and limited interpretability hinder its use in river nutrient predictions. Building on insights into the physical dynamics of nutrients, this research investigates how incorporating extreme weather indices as additional input data, which are often overlooked in current DL-based nutrient prediction, could affect model performance. Additionally, we aim to improve model interpretability by developing hybrid DL-physical structures and identify the optimal structure for predicting nutrient indicators. 
 
The study proposes an assessment workflow and demonstrates its application by predicting dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations at the outlet of the Salmons Brook catchment, UK, where nutrient observations are scarce. The workflow includes two key decisions: selecting the input dataset and defining the DL-physical hybrid structure, each with two options. Comparing multiple predictions generated from all decision combinations enables the evaluation of the impacts of extreme weather events and different hybrid structures. 
 
The simulations demonstrate that incorporating extreme weather indices as additional inputs enhanced performance for both nutrient indicators, particularly in capturing extreme values. Overall, the choice of input dataset had a greater impact on the simulations than the hybrid structure, highlighting the importance of careful input selection and preprocessing in DL model development. Integrating results from a physical model into a DL model can improve simulation interpretability by introducing nutrient-related physical processes. In addition to the hybrid structure, incorporating insights into the physical behaviour of nutrients further enhances the interpretability of DL-based predictions, which is crucial for gaining the trust of domain experts, especially when validating results. 

How to cite: Tang, J., Liu, L., Chun, K., and Mijic, A.: Enhancing River Nutrient Predictions with Extreme Weather Indices and DL-Physical Hybrid Structures for Improved Interpretability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7094, 2025.

EGU25-7205 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Evaluating uncertainty in probabilistic deep learning models using Information Theory 

Manuel Alvarez Chaves, Hoshin Gupta, Uwe Ehret, and Anneli Guthke

Deep learning methods in hydrology have traditionally focused on deterministic models, limiting their ability to quantify prediction uncertainty. Recent advances in generative modeling have opened new possibilities for probabilistic modelling in various applied fields, including hydrological forecasting (Jahangir & Quilty, 2024). These models learn to represent underlying probability distributions using neural networks, enabling uncertainty quantification through sampling in a very flexible framework.

In this submission we introduce vLSTM, a variational extension of the traditional long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture that quantifies predictive uncertainty by adding noise sampled from a learned multivariate Gaussian distribution to perturb the model’s hidden state. The vLSTM preserves the traditional LSTM’s state-space dynamics while introducing a probabilistic component that enables uncertainty quantification through sampling. Unlike mixed-density networks (MDNs) which directly model the distribution of the target variable, vLSTM’s uncertainty is obtained by perturbations to the hidden state, providing a novel approach to probabilistic prediction. In rainfall-runoff modeling, vLSTM offers a different mechanism for uncertainty quantification to the well established MDN models (Klotz et al., 2022). This approach enriches the existing toolkit of uncertainty methods in deep learning while maintaining the simplicity of sampling for probabilistic predictions.

To rigorously evaluate probabilistic predictions across different model architectures, we develop new information-theoretic metrics that capture key aspects of how uncertainty is handled by a particular model. These include the average prediction entropy H(X), which quantifies model confidence, and average relative entropy DKL(pq), which measures the average alignment between the predicted distribution of a model and a target, among others. The proposed metrics take advantage of non-parametric estimators for Information Theory which have been implemented in the easy to use UNITE toolbox (https://github.com/manuel-alvarez-chaves/unite_toolbox). By expressing these metrics in compatible units of bits (or nats), we enable direct comparisons between different uncertainty measures. We apply these metrics to our newly introduced vLSTM and the existing MDN models to show strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This information-theoretic framework provides a unified language for analyzing and understanding predictive uncertainty in probabilistic models.

References

  • Jahangir, M. S., & Quilty, J. (2024). Generative deep learning for probabilistic streamflow forecasting: Conditional variational auto-encoder. Journal of Hydrology, 629, 130498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130498
  • Klotz, D., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Keefe Sampson, A., Brandstetter, J., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., & Nearing, G. (2022). Uncertainty estimation with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(6), 1673–1693. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022

How to cite: Alvarez Chaves, M., Gupta, H., Ehret, U., and Guthke, A.: Evaluating uncertainty in probabilistic deep learning models using Information Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7205, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7205, 2025.

EGU25-7468 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Empirical Evidence of the Importance of Data Recency in LSTM-Based Rainfall-Runoff Modeling  

Qiutong Yu and Bryan Tolson

Deep learning (DL)-based hydrological models, particularly those using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, typically require large datasets for effective training. In the context of large-scale rainfall-runoff modeling, dataset size can refer to either the number of watersheds or the length of the training period. While it is well established that training a regional model across more watersheds improves performance (Kratzert et al., 2024), the benefits of extending the training period are less clear.

Empirical evidence from studies such as Boulmaiz et al. (2020) and Gauch et al. (2021) suggests that longer training periods enhance LSTM performance in rainfall-runoff modeling. This improvement is attributed to the need for extensive datasets to ensure proper model convergence and the ability to capture a wide range of hydrological conditions and events. However, these studies neglected the influence of data recency (or data recentness), which is critical for operational applications that forecast current and future hydrological conditions. In the context of climate change and anthropogenic interventions, the assumption of stationarity (i.e., that historical patterns reliably represent future conditions) may no longer hold for hydrological systems (Shen et al., 2022). Consequently, the selection of training periods should account for potential non-stationarity, as more recent data may better reflect current rainfall-runoff dynamics. Intriguingly, Shen et al. (2022) found that calibrating hydrologic models to the latest data is a superior approach compared to using old data, and completely discarding the oldest data can even improve the performance in streamflow prediction.

This study aims to address two research questions: (1) As the number of watersheds increases, is it still necessary to train LSTM models on decades of historical observations? (2) Can LSTM models achieve comparable performance using shorter training periods focused on more recent data? Specifically, we examine whether models trained on recent data outperform those trained on older data and explore how different temporal partitions of historical records affect predictive skill.

This study leverages a comprehensive dataset comprising streamflow records from over 1,300 watersheds across North America, representing diverse climatic and hydrological regimes, with streamflow data spanning 1950 to 2023. Training periods are designed to isolate the effects of temporal data recency while keeping period lengths consistent. This approach enables a systematic comparison of model performance using exclusively older (e.g., pre-1980) versus exclusively recent data (e.g., post-1980). This research provides evidence-based recommendations for selecting training data while balancing computational costs, data availability, and prediction accuracy.

 

References

Boulmaiz, T., Guermoui, M., and Boutaghane, H.: Impact of training data size on the LSTM performances for rainfall–runoff modeling, Model Earth Syst Environ, 6, 2153–2164, https://doi.org/10.1007/S40808-020-00830-W/FIGURES/9, 2020.

Gauch, M., Mai, J., and Lin, J.: The proper care and feeding of CAMELS: How limited training data affects streamflow prediction, Environmental Modelling and Software, 135, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104926, 2021.

Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., and Nearing, G.: HESS Opinions: Never train an LSTM on a single basin, Hydrology and Earth System Science, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-275, 2024.

Shen, H., Tolson, B. A., and Mai, J.: Time to Update the Split-Sample Approach in Hydrological Model Calibration, Water Resour Res, 58, e2021WR031523, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031523, 2022.

How to cite: Yu, Q. and Tolson, B.: Empirical Evidence of the Importance of Data Recency in LSTM-Based Rainfall-Runoff Modeling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7468, 2025.

EGU25-7531 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Predicting total organic carbon loads in river using a mass-conserving LSTM integrated with QUAL2E kinetics 

Hyemin Jeong, Byeongwon Lee, Younghun Lee, and Sangchul Lee

The increasing complexity of water pollution and its impact on aquatic ecosystems necessitates the accurate prediction of water pollutant loads for effective river management. Total Organic Carbon (TOC), a key indicator of organic pollution levels, is central to assessing ecosystem health and informing water treatment strategies. However, conventional process-based modeling methods, while capable of providing precise water quality predictions, require extensive input data and significant computational resources, limiting their practical application. Consequently, alternative modeling approaches, particularly those leveraging artificial intelligence, have been explored. Recent advancements in deep learning have improved predictive modeling in environmental sciences. These approaches have showed effectiveness in hydrological applications, such as streamflow forecasting, by capturing complex nonlinear relationships within environmental systems. Despite these advancements, a notable limitation of these models is their difficulty in maintaining physical consistency, specifically in adhering to the principle of mass balance—a fundamental concept in both hydrology and water quality modeling. In this study, we evaluate a Mass-Conserving Long Short-Term Memory network integrated with QUAL2E kinetics (MC-LSTM-QUAL2E) to predict TOC loads in river systems. By incorporating representations of decay and reaeration processes within a mass-conserving neural network framework, this model combines data-driven prediction capabilities with the requirements of physical consistency. A key component of this framework is the trash cell, designed to simulate TOC transformations based on QUAL2E dynamics. Within the trash cell, TOC decay and reaeration are modeled using parameters kdecay​ and kreaeration​, which are determined by environmental variables such as temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. The QUAL2E module updates the trash state at each timestep to account for TOC losses due to decay and gains from reaeration, ensuring mass conservation.  The MC-LSTM-QUAL2E model was compared to a conventional LSTM model using environmental variables, including temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and nutrient levels, as inputs. The analysis used data from 2012 to 2020, with the period from 2012 to 2017 designated for training and 2018 to 2020 for tests. Model performance was assessed using metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Root Mean Square Error-observations standard deviation Ratio (RSR), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). By maintaining mass balance and incorporating QUAL2E dynamics, the model provides reliable predictions of TOC loads in river systems and offers insights into associated biochemical and hydrological processes.

How to cite: Jeong, H., Lee, B., Lee, Y., and Lee, S.: Predicting total organic carbon loads in river using a mass-conserving LSTM integrated with QUAL2E kinetics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7531, 2025.

EGU25-8045 | Posters on site | HS3.4

Developing a Deep Learning-Based Super-Resolution Urban Flood Model: Towards Scalable and Reliable Hydrological Predictions 

Hyeonjin Choi, Hyuna Woo, Minyoung Kim, Hyungon Ryu, Junhak Lee, Seungsoo Lee, and Seong Jin Noh

Integrating deep learning techniques into hydrology has opened a new way to improve urban flood modeling, with various solutions being developed to address urban flood problems driven by climate change and urbanization. However, predicting urban inundation in near real-time for large urban areas remains challenging due to computational demands and limited data availability. This work proposes a deep learning-based super-resolution framework that enhances the spatial resolution of process-based urban flood modeling outputs using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) while improving computational efficiency. This study investigates the interaction between deep learning model architecture and the underlying physical processes to improve prediction accuracy and robustness in urban pluvial flood mapping. The methodology will be applied to various urban flood scenarios, including extreme rainfall events and hurricane-induced flooding, and its performance will be evaluated through quantitative indicators and sensitivity analyses. The applicability and scalability of this model will also be discussed. In particular, strategies to enhance model reliability and integrate additional hydrological information under extreme conditions will be explored. The study will further address uncertainty estimation in deep learning-based super-resolution models and scalability challenges associated with super-resolution approaches for large-scale flood simulations. The findings aim to demonstrate the potential of deep learning as an innovative tool in hydrological modeling and to enable more effective flood risk management strategies.

How to cite: Choi, H., Woo, H., Kim, M., Ryu, H., Lee, J., Lee, S., and Noh, S. J.: Developing a Deep Learning-Based Super-Resolution Urban Flood Model: Towards Scalable and Reliable Hydrological Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8045, 2025.

EGU25-9088 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Projecting storm surge extremes with a deep learning surrogate model 

Emiliano Longo, Andrea Ficchì, Sanne Muis, Martin Verlaan, and Andrea Castelletti

Sea level rise and increasing coastal flood risks demand the development of accurate and efficient coastal risk models capable of generating large ensembles of projections to support robust adaptation strategies. The latest IPCC report emphasizes the importance of projecting storm surge changes and their associated uncertainties, alongside mean sea level rise. However, the high computational cost of storm surge simulations continues to limit the feasibility of generating large ensembles.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a promising alternative to simulate storm surge scenarios with significantly reduced computational costs. Despite recent advancements, key challenges remain in accurately representing extreme events and ensuring robust model extrapolation under changing climate conditions. While AI-based surrogate models have been proposed in the literature, gaps persist in understanding their performance limits for extreme events in future scenarios, hindering their application in climate adaptation planning.
To address these challenges, we developed a deep learning (DL) surrogate model of the physics-based Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM). The DL model is trained using reanalysis data (ERA5) and historical scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Our analysis focuses on the DL model's performance in simulating extreme storm surge events, validated against GTSM outputs for both historical reanalysis and future projections, with a case study along the New York coastline.
To enhance the surrogate model’s performance for extreme events, we explore various loss functions, including a customized quantile loss function, and test alternative DL architectures with different input configurations. Results demonstrate that the quantile loss improves the model's accuracy for extremes compared to standard loss functions such as mean square error. Additionally, fine-tuning DL models with specific Global Climate Model forcing fields improves the alignment of AI-predicted storm surge trajectories with GTSM outputs, even under diverse spatiotemporal resolutions and model setups.
These findings highlight the critical importance of selecting appropriate loss functions and training datasets to ensure robust performance over extreme events and projected future scenarios. Our globally applicable framework, relying solely on open-source data, offers a promising pathway to scalable and efficient storm surge projections, with implications for robust coastal adaptation planning.

How to cite: Longo, E., Ficchì, A., Muis, S., Verlaan, M., and Castelletti, A.: Projecting storm surge extremes with a deep learning surrogate model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9088, 2025.

EGU25-10650 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

The relationship between theoretical maximum prediction limits of the LSTM and network size 

Daniel Klotz, Sanika Baste, Ralf Loritz, Martin Gauch, and Frederik Kratzert

Machine learning is increasingly important for rainfall–runoff modelling. In particular, the community started to widely adopt the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. One of the most important established best practices  in this context is to train the LSTMs on a large number of diverse basins  (Kratzert et al., 2019; 2024). Intuitively, the reason for adopting this practice is that training deep learning models on small and homogeneous data sets (e.g., data from only a single hydrological basin) leads to poor generalization behavior — especially for high-flows. 

 

To examine this behavior, Kratzert et al. (2024) use a theoretical maximum prediction limit for LSTMs. This theoretical limit is computed as the L1 norm (i.e., the sum of the absolute values of each vector component) of the learned weight vector that relates the hidden states to the estimated streamflow. Hence, for random vectors we could simply obtain larger theoretical limits by increasing the size of the network (i.e., the  number of parameters). However, since LSTMs are trained using gradient descent, this relationship is more intricate. 

 

This contribution explores the relationship between the theoretical limit and the network size. In particular, we will look at how increasing the network size in untrained models increases the prediction limit and contrast it to the scaling behavior of trained models.



How to cite: Klotz, D., Baste, S., Loritz, R., Gauch, M., and Kratzert, F.: The relationship between theoretical maximum prediction limits of the LSTM and network size, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10650, 2025.

EGU25-11240 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Exploring the Transferability of Knowledge In Deep Learning-Based Streamflow Models Across Global Catchments 

Jamal Hassan, John Rowan, and Nandan Mukherjee

Accurate streamflow prediction is critical for flood forecasting and water resource management, particularly in data-scarce regions like Central Asia (CA), where traditional hydrological models struggle due to insufficient discharge data. Deep learning models, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have demonstrated the potential for global hydrologic regionalization by leveraging both climate data and catchment characteristics. We used a transfer learning (TL) approach to improve streamflow predictions by first pretraining LSTM models on catchments from data-rich regions like Switzerland, Scotland, and British Columbia (source regions). These deep learning models were then fine-tuned on the data scarce target region (CA basins). This approach leverages the knowledge gained from the source regions to adapt the model to the target region, enhancing prediction accuracy despite the data scarcity in CA. Incorporating lagged streamflow alongside ERA-5 climate data boosted prediction accuracy, particularly in snowmelt and glaciers influenced basins like Switzerland (median NSE=0.707 to 0.837), British Columbia (median NSE= 0.775 to 0.923) and CA (median NSE=0.693 to 0.798). K-Means algorithm was applied to categorize catchments from four global locations into five clusters (labeled 0–4) based on their specific attributes. The predictive performance of fine-tuned LSTM model has significantly enhanced when leveraging a pre-trained model with cluster 2, as demonstrated by higher median metrics (NSE=0.958, KGE=0.905, RMSE=10.723, MSE=115.055) compared to both the locally trained model (NSE=0.851, KGE=0.792, RMSE=20.377, MSE=415.579) and individual basin-based training approaches (NSE=0.69, KGE=0.692, RMSE=25.563, MSE=676.110). These results highlight the effectiveness of pretraining the LSTM model on diverse clusters (0, 1, 2, and 4) before fine-tuning on the target region (cluster 3). Moreover, pretraining the LSTM model with clusters 0 and 4 resulted in enhanced performance by increasing the number of basins, whereas the impact was minimal or even declined when using clusters 1 and 2, as well as when all basins from the four clusters were included. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of transfer learning in addressing data scarcity challenges and underscore the importance of diverse and high-quality training data in developing robust, regionalized hydrological models. This approach bridges the gap between data-rich and data-scarce regions, offering a pathway to improved flood prediction and water resource management.

How to cite: Hassan, J., Rowan, J., and Mukherjee, N.: Exploring the Transferability of Knowledge In Deep Learning-Based Streamflow Models Across Global Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11240, 2025.

EGU25-11682 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Improving AI-based discharge forecasting through hydrograph decomposition and data assimilation 

Bob E Saint Fleur, Eric Gaume, and Nicolas Akil

Effective discharge forecasting is critical in operational hydrology. This study explores novel methods to improve forecast accuracy by combining data assimilation techniques and hydrograph decomposition. Traditional rainfall-runoff modeling, including AI-based approaches, typically simulates the entire discharge signal using a single model. However, runoff is generated by multiple processes with contrasting kinetics, which a single-model approach may fail to capture adequately. This study proposes using hydrograph decomposition to separate baseflow and quickflow components, training specific forecasting models for each component individually, and then merging their outputs to reconstruct the total discharge signal. This approach is expected to enhance forecast accuracy for both floods and droughts, identifying long-term dependencies governing baseflow to improve seasonal low-flow forecasts. Experiments will be conducted using a subset of the CAMELS dataset.

How to cite: Saint Fleur, B. E., Gaume, E., and Akil, N.: Improving AI-based discharge forecasting through hydrograph decomposition and data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11682, 2025.

EGU25-12110 | Orals | HS3.4

Increasing the Accuracy and Resilience of Streamflow Forecasts through Data Augmentation and High Resolution Weather Inputs 

David Lambl, Simon Topp, Phil Butcher, Mostafa Elkurdy, Laura Reed, and Alden K. Sampson

Accurately forecasting streamflow is essential for effectively managing water resources. High-quality operational forecasts allow us to prepare for extreme weather events, optimize hydropower generation, and minimize the impact of human development on the natural environment. However, streamflow forecasts are inherently limited by the quality and availability of upstream weather sources. The weather forecasts that drive hydrological modeling vary in their temporal resolutions and are prone to outages, such as the ECMWF data outage in November of 2023. 

Here, we present HydroForecast Short Term 3 (ST-3), a state-of-the-art probabilistic deep learning model for medium-term (10-day) streamflow forecasts. ST-3 combines long short-term memory architecture with Boolean tensors representing data availability and dense embeddings for processing of the information in these tensors. This architecture allows for a training routine that implements data augmentation to synthesize varying amounts of availability of weather inputs. The result is a model that 1) makes accurate forecasts even in the case of an upstream data outage, 2) achieves higher accuracy by leveraging data of varying temporal resolutions including regional weather inputs with shorter lead times than the most common medium term weather inputs, and 3) generates individual forecast traces for each individual weather source, facilitating inference across regions where weather data availability is limited. 

Initial results across CAMELS sites in North America indicate that the incorporation of near-term high resolution weather data increases early horizon forecast KGE by nearly 0.25 with meaningful improvements in metrics seen across our customers’ operational sites. Validation metrics across individual weather sources, as well as model interrogation through integrated gradients highlights a high level of fidelity in the model’s learned physical relationships across forecast scenarios.

How to cite: Lambl, D., Topp, S., Butcher, P., Elkurdy, M., Reed, L., and Sampson, A. K.: Increasing the Accuracy and Resilience of Streamflow Forecasts through Data Augmentation and High Resolution Weather Inputs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12110, 2025.

Machine learning (ML) models have transformed our ability to perform reasonably-accurate, large-scale river discharge modeling, opening new opportunities for global prediction in ungauged basins. These ML models are data-hungry, and results have conclusively shown that ML techniques do best when a single ML model is trained on all basins in the dataset. This is contrary to inuitions from the hydrological sciences, where individual basin calibration traditionally provides the best forecasts. 

 

We bridge this gap between intuitions from traditional ML and hydrology by pre-training a single global model on basins in the worldwide Caravan dataset (~6000 basins), and then fine-tune that model on individual basins. This is a well-known practice within ML, and for us serves the purpose of producing models aimed at high-quality local prediction problems while still capturing the advantages of large-sample training. We show that this leads to a significant skill improvement. 

 

We have also conducted analysis of geophysical and hydrological regimes that benefit most from fine-tuning. These results point to how flood forecasting and water management agencies and operators can expect to fine-tune large, pretrained models on their own local data, which may be proprietary and not part of large, global training datasets.

 

This work illustrates how local agencies like national hydromet agencies or flood forecasting agencies might be able to leverage machine learning based hydrological forecast models while also maximizing the value and information of local data by tailoring large, pretrained models to their own local context. This is an important step in allowing local agencies to take ownership of these global models, and directly incorporate local hydrological understanding to improve performance.

How to cite: Ryd, E. and Nearing, G.: Fine Flood Forecasts: Calibrating global machine learning flood forecast models at the basin level through fine-tuning., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13027, 2025.

EGU25-13844 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

AIFAS: Probabilistic Global River Discharge Forecasting 

Mohamad Hakam Shams Eddin, Yikui Zhang, Stefan Kollet, and Juergen Gall

Hydrological models are vital in river discharge to issue timely flood warnings and mitigate hydrological risks. Recently, advanced techniques in deep learning have significantly enhanced flood prediction by improving the accuracy and efficiency of forecasts, enabling more reliable early warnings and decision-making in flood risk management. Nevertheless, current applications of deep learning methods are still more restricted to local-scale models or in the best case on selected river points at a global scale. Many studies also lack spatial and topological information for training deep learning models, which can limit their generalization ability when applied to large regions with heterogeneous hydrological conditions. In addition, the lack of probabilistic forecasting impedes the quantification of uncertainty in flood predictions. Here we present the Artificial Intelligence Flood Awareness System (AIFAS) for probabilistic global river discharge forecasting. AIFAS is a generative AI model that is trained with long-term historical reanalysis data and can provide grid-based global river discharge forecasting at 0.05°. At the core of our model are the built-in vision module upon state space model (SSM) [1] and the diffusion-based loss function [2]. The vision SSM allows the model to connect the routing of the channel networks globally, while the diffusion loss generates ensembles of stochastic river discharge forecasts. We evaluate the AIFAS forecast skill against other state-of-the-art deep learning models, such as Google LSTM [3], climatology baseline, persistence baseline, and operational GloFAS forecasts [4]. The impact of different hydrometeorological products that drive AIFAS performance on different forecasting lead times will also be discussed. Our results show that the new forecasting system achieves reliable predictions of extreme flood events across different return periods and lead times.

References

[1] Gu, A., and Dao, T.: Mamba: Linear-time sequence modeling with selective state spaces. arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.00752, 2023.

[2] Ho, J., Jain, A., and Abbeel, P.: Denoising diffusion probabilistic models. Advances in neural information processing systems, 33, 6840-6851, 2020.

[3] Nearing, G., Cohen, D., Dube, V. et al. Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds. Nature 627, 559–563 2024.

[4] Harrigan, S., Zsoter, E., Cloke, H., Salamon, P., and Prudhomme, C.: Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, 2023.

How to cite: Shams Eddin, M. H., Zhang, Y., Kollet, S., and Gall, J.: AIFAS: Probabilistic Global River Discharge Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13844, 2025.

EGU25-14004 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Learning Basin Similarity Through Combined Deep Learning and Random Forest Approaches for Improved Parameter Transfer in Ungauged Basins 

Rojin Meysami, Qiutong Yu, Bryan Tolson, Hongren Shen, and Rezgar Arabzadeh

Parameter regionalization for ungauged basins remains a critical challenge in hydrological modeling. While traditional approaches rely on physical catchment descriptors or spatial proximity, and recent machine learning applications have focused primarily on direct streamflow prediction, there remains significant potential to leverage machine learning for improved parameter transfer strategies. This study explores novel approaches that combine Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Random Forest (RF) models to predict basin similarity and optimize parameter transfer for physically-based hydrologic models. Using case studies from British Columbia's Fraser River Basin and Ontario's Great Lakes region, we test multiple methodologies for integrating deep learning with traditional parameter transfer approaches. Our primary benchmark is established through an exhaustive parameter transfer experiment using the Raven hydrological model, where parameters from each potential donor basin were transferred to every possible receiver basin across 10 independent trials. This benchmark represents the best achievable KGE via parameter transfer methods. Our framework employs a regional LSTM model to capture complex streamflow dynamics and characterize basin similarity, then explores various RF-based approaches to predict optimal donor-receiver basin pairs for parameter transfer. These methods are evaluated against both the exhaustive transfer benchmark and emerging machine learning approaches. Results indicate that thoughtfully combining deep learning and random forest techniques can capture nuanced relationships between basin characteristics and hydrological response similarity, advancing the state-of-the-art in parameter regionalization for ungauged basins while maintaining physical interpretability.

How to cite: Meysami, R., Yu, Q., Tolson, B., Shen, H., and Arabzadeh, R.: Learning Basin Similarity Through Combined Deep Learning and Random Forest Approaches for Improved Parameter Transfer in Ungauged Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14004, 2025.

EGU25-14223 | Orals | HS3.4

On the advancing frontier of deep learning in hydrology:  a hydrologic applications perspective 

Andy Wood, Laura Read, Grey Nearing, Juliane Mai, Chris Frans, Martyn Clark, and Florian Pappenberger

In the last decade, the realization that certain deep learning (DL) architectures are particularly well-suited to the simulation and prediction of hydrologic systems and their characteristic memory-influenced dynamics has led to remarkable rise in DL-centered hydrologic research and applications.  Numerous new datasets, computational and open software resources, and progress in related fields such as numerical weather prediction have also bolstered this growth.  Advances in DL for hydrologic forecasting research and operations is likely the most eye-catching and intuitive use case, but DL methods are now also making inroads into more process-intensive hydrologic modeling contexts, and among groups that have been skeptical of their potential suitability despite performance-related headlines. Nevertheless, even in the forecasting context, and despite offering new strategies and concepts to resolve long-standing hurdles in hydrologic process-based modeling efforts, the uptake of DL-based systems in many public-facing services and applications has been slow. 

This presentation provides perspective on the ways in which DL techniques are garnering interest in traditionally process-oriented modeling arenas -- from flood and drought forecasting to watershed studies to hydroclimate risk modeling – and on sources of hesitancy.  Clear pathways, momentum and motivations for DL approaches to supplant process-based models exist in some applications, whereas in others, governing interests and constraints appear likely to restrict DL innovations to narrower niches.  Concerns over explainability have been a common topic, but less discussed questions about fitness or adequacy for purpose and institutional requirements can also be influential.  Drawing from relevant hydrologic modeling programs, projects and initiatives in the US and elsewhere, we aim to provide a real-world status update on the advancing frontier of deep learning in applied hydrologic science and practice.  

How to cite: Wood, A., Read, L., Nearing, G., Mai, J., Frans, C., Clark, M., and Pappenberger, F.: On the advancing frontier of deep learning in hydrology:  a hydrologic applications perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14223, 2025.

EGU25-15152 | Orals | HS3.4

Evaluation of LSTM Model for Stochastic Discharge Simulation 

Sonja Jankowfsky, Kanneganti Gokul, Shuangcai Li, Arno Hilberts, and Anongnart Assteerawatt

This study evaluates the capacity of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained on a diverse river discharge dataset from over 4,000 USGS gauges across the United States with the aim to generate extremely long stochastic discharge simulations. 

The LSTM model (Kratzert et al., 2022) was trained using 30 years of NLDAS v2 forcings, which were split into 10-year periods for training, validation, and testing respectively. Sixty percent of the gauges had a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) larger than 0.4 in the validation period, and ten percent had an NSE larger than 0.8, which was considered sufficient to proceed with applying the model using stochastic precipitation.  

The stochastic simulations are evaluated in terms of the model’s ability to capture peak discharges. The stochastic return period (RP) curves were evaluated against those from the historical time period and the observed discharge. For most of the gauges, the stochastic RP curves are in line with the historical RP curves, and for all of the gauges, the stochastic RP curves discharge of the extreme return period extend far beyond the discharge of the historical time period, showing the capacity of the model to extrapolate beyond the training dataset. 

This capacity, which is usually lacking in single-basin trained models, most likely results from training on a large dataset with a wide range of climatic conditions and variability as suggested by Kratzert et al. (2024). These findings underscore the robustness and versatility of the LSTM model in long-term stochastic discharge simulations, highlighting its potential for broader hydrological applications. 

Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Nearing, G., & Klotz, D. (2022). NeuralHydrology — A Python library for Deep Learning research in hydrology. Journal of Open Source Software, 7(71), 4050. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04050

Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., and Nearing, G. (2024). HESS Opinions: Never train an LSTM on a single basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS), Volume 28, Issue 17, published on September 12, 2024.  https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4187-2024.

How to cite: Jankowfsky, S., Gokul, K., Li, S., Hilberts, A., and Assteerawatt, A.: Evaluation of LSTM Model for Stochastic Discharge Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15152, 2025.

EGU25-15171 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Learning shallow water equations with physics-informed Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) 

Robert Keppler, Julian Koch, and Rasmus Fensholt

Physics-informed neural networks are an optimization-based approach for solving differential equations and have the potential to significantly speed up the modelling of complex phenomena, which conventionally is achieved via expensive numerical solvers. We present a Physics-Informed Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) framework for solving two-dimensional shallow water equations with variable bed topography under given boundary and initial conditions. While traditional physics-informed neural networks can solve differential equations on meshless grids using prescribed conditions, they require retraining for each new set of initial and boundary conditions. Our approach uses a DeepONet to learn the underlying solution operator rather than individual solutions, which provides an enhanced generalizability, making the DeepONet a feasible candidate for real world applications. The framework combines the advantages of neural networks with physical laws, effectively handling the complexities of varying bed topography and wet-dry transitions. We demonstrate that our DeepONet approach achieves comparable accuracy to classical numerical methods while significantly reducing inference time. In our modelling experiments we investigate the sensitivity of hyperparameter values and network architecture as well as the potential of introducing an additional data loss, emulating the availability of additional observational data on water levels or inundation extent.  This acceleration in computation speed makes the method particularly valuable for time-critical applications such as flood forecasting. The results establish physics-informed DeepONets as a promising alternative to traditional numerical solvers for shallow water systems, offering a balance between computational efficiency and solution accuracy.

How to cite: Keppler, R., Koch, J., and Fensholt, R.: Learning shallow water equations with physics-informed Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15171, 2025.

EGU25-15229 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Cryosphere Data and Its Value for Deep Learning Hydrological Simulations 

Corinna Frank, Jan Philipp Bohl, Manuela Brunner, Martin Gauch, and Marvin Höge

Deep learning models have been successfully applied to simulate streamflow in mountain catchments. While these mostly lumped models have demonstrated the ability to learn processes such as snow accumulation and melt that are crucial for streamflow generation in these regions, they still show deficiencies in simulating streamflow during the melting period. This suggests a misrepresentation of melting dynamics encoded within these models. We hypothesize that the sets of lumped meteorological variables (such as air temperature, precipitation, PET) and static attributes currently used to train and drive these models are not sufficient to describe the melting processes. 

To enhance the representation of snow and ice-related processes, we thus propose to incorporate additional data on snow and ice cover, such as Snow Covered Area, Snow Water Equivalent, and glacier mass within the respective basin. We assess (1) how much additional value can be extracted from cryosphere data to improve the representation of cryosphere related processes and (2) how the added value varies across different geographies and catchment types. In a lumped Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) setup covering a large sample of catchments in different European mountainous regions, we compare different data integration methods with respect to their uncertainty reduction for streamflow simulation and their limitations for model applications.
Our findings provide insights into optimizing model configurations and data usage and offer practical guidance for ultimately improving the accuracy of streamflow simulations in mountainous, snow-influenced regions. 

How to cite: Frank, C., Bohl, J. P., Brunner, M., Gauch, M., and Höge, M.: Cryosphere Data and Its Value for Deep Learning Hydrological Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15229, 2025.

EGU25-15350 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.4

Graph-Based Representations in Hydrological Modeling: Comparing SWAT+ and Graph Neural Networks for Water Management Systems 

Moritz Wirthensohn, Ye Tuo, and Markus Disse

Extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods are expected to become more frequent and severe according to climate change projections, making effective water management very important to mitigate environmental and socio-economic impacts. In this context, advanced hydrological modeling tools are essential for understanding and managing water systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+), a process-based and semi-distributed eco-hydrological model, has become very popular for simulating hydrological processes and water management scenarios, especially with its improved water allocation and reservoir modules. At the same time, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), a deep learning model, have shown potential for modeling complex relationships in networked systems. Both SWAT+'s water allocation module and GNNs use graph-like structures to model water systems. The goal of this study is to systematically compare the structural components of these two approaches and provide insights into potential integration.

Using the Upper Isar River Basin's complex water management system as a case study, we examine how SWAT+ and GNNs can be used to model it. We perform a component-wise analysis, focusing on how these models can represent nodes, edges, and attributes in a networked water management system. While this study focuses on structural rather than performance comparisons, we anticipate that our results will highlight the strengths and limitations of each approach. SWAT+ is expected to excel at incorporating domain-specific knowledge and explicitly representing management actions. GNNs could provide advantages in learning complex patterns from data and faster simulations for larger catchments.

The findings could open the way for hybrid approaches that combine traditional hydrological models' strengths with GNNs' learning capabilities. This could lead to more robust and adaptable water management tools to deal with the growing complexity of hydrological systems caused by climate change and human intervention.

How to cite: Wirthensohn, M., Tuo, Y., and Disse, M.: Graph-Based Representations in Hydrological Modeling: Comparing SWAT+ and Graph Neural Networks for Water Management Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15350, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15350, 2025.

Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for modeling streamflow in reservoir-regulated basins. In this study, we introduce a knowledge-guided Long Short-Term Memory model (KG-LSTM) to simulate the outflow of reservoirs-Fengshuba, Xinfengjiang, and Baipenzhu in the Dongjiang River Basin, China. KG-LSTM is built on the standard hyperparameters-optimized-LSTM and the loss function considering reservoir operation knowledge, while traditional reservoir model level pool scheme (LPS) is used as a benchmark model. Model uncertainty is analyzed using the bootstrap method. We then propose a hybrid approach that combines KG-LSTM with the Three-parameter monthly hydrological Model based on the Proportionality Hypothesis (KG-LSTM-TMPH) for streamflow simulation. The propagation of inflow errors to outflow simulations is studied across the three reservoirs. Results indicate that LSTM-based models greatly outperform LPS in all three reservoirs, with KG-LSTM demonstrating superior capability in capture reservoir outflow dynamics compared to the standard LSTM model. In the multi-year regulated Xinfengjiang Reservoir, KG-LSTM improves Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) from 0.59 to 0.64, and reduces root mean squared error (RMSE) from 55.59 m³/s to 54.84 m³/s during the testing period. KG-LSTM shows reduced model uncertainty, decreasing the relative width (RW) from 0.55 to 0.51 in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and from 0.48 to 0.44 in the Baipenzhu Reservoir, while demonstrating limited change in the Fengshuba Reservoir. For streamflow simulation, KG-LSTM-TMPH performs best across all four stations, achieving NSE values of approximately 0.87, 0.88, 0.91, and 0.92 at Longchuan, Heyuan, Lingxia, and Boluo stations, respectively. In the dry season, KG-LSTM-TMPH demonstrates substantial improvement over LSTM-TMPH, increasing R² by +0.11 and reducing RMSE by -4.22 m³/s at Heyuan station. Inflow errors impact outflow most significantly for the Xinfengjiang Reservoir in April and May, for the Fengshuba Reservoir throughout the year (particularly in April, May, July, and August), and for the Baipenzhu Reservoir primarily in July and August. This study enhances reservoir outflow modeling by integrating reservoir operation knowledge with deep learning. The hybrid KG-LSTM-TMPH approach shows practical potential for streamflow simulation in reservoir-regulated basins, offering valuable applications for water resource management.

How to cite: Wang, D.: A Knowledge-guided LSTM reservoir outflow model and its application to streamflow simulation in reservoir-regulated basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16156, 2025.

EGU25-16414 | Posters on site | HS3.4

Exploring the Limits of Spatial Generalization Ability in Deep Learning Models for Hydrology 

Benedikt Heudorfer, Hoshin Gupta, and Ralf Loritz

State-of-the-art deep learning models for streamflow prediction (so-called Entity-Aware models, EA) integrate information about physical catchment properties (static features) with climate forcing data (dynamic features) from multiple catchments simultaneously. However, recent studies challenge the notion that this approach truly leverages generalization ability. We explore this issue by conducting experiments running Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks across multiple temporal and spatial in-sample and out-of-sample setups using the CAMELS-US dataset. We compare LSTMs equipped with static features with ablated variants lacking these features. Our findings reveal that the superior performance of EA models is primarily driven by meteorological data, with negligible contributions by static features, particularly in spatial out-of-sample tests. We conclude that EA models cannot generalize to new locations based on provided physical catchment properties. This suggests that current methods of encoding static feature information in our models may need improvement, and that the quality of static features in the hydrologic domain might be limited. We contextualize our results with observations made in the broader deep learning field, which increasingly grapples with the challenges of (lacking) generalization ability in state-of-the-art deep learning models.

How to cite: Heudorfer, B., Gupta, H., and Loritz, R.: Exploring the Limits of Spatial Generalization Ability in Deep Learning Models for Hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16414, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16414, 2025.

EGU25-19190 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Application of Attention-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatial Distribution Prediction of Streamflow 

Xian Wang, Xuanze Zhang, and Yongqiang Zhang

Accurate streamflow estimation is crucial for effective water resource management and flood forecasting. However, physics-based hydrological models fail to respond promptly to rapid hydrological events due to lack efficiency in model calibration and computing time for large-scale catchment , while existing deep learning models tend to neglect the physical processes of runoff transfer, failing to account for the spatial and temporal dependencies inherent in runoff dynamics. In this study, we propose a topological process-based model that integrates Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture the spatial topology of runoff transfer and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate the temporal transfer between upstream and downstream runoff. The model was applied to the Yangtze River Basin which is the largest river basin in China to predict streamflow at 10 km spatial resolution. Validation results show that our model achieves a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value of 0.783 at secondary outlet stations across the basin and effectively simulates the streamflow peak due to flooding. Additionally, the model is capable of simulating the spatial distribution of daily streamflow for an entire year within 10 seconds, providing a significant computational speedup compared to physical process-based river confluence models. This work represents a step towards more efficient and responsive prediction of extreme hydrological events using deep learning model.

How to cite: Wang, X., Zhang, X., and Zhang, Y.: Application of Attention-Based Graph Neural Networks for Spatial Distribution Prediction of Streamflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19190, 2025.

EGU25-19716 | ECS | Orals | HS3.4

Leveraging Machine Learning to Uncover and Interpret Relevant Catchment Features  

Alberto Bassi and Carlo Albert

Recent advances in catchment hydrology [Kratzert et al., 2019–2021] demonstrate the superiority of LSTMs over traditional conceptual models for streamflow prediction in large-sample datasets. LSTMs achieve better streamflow accuracies by leveraging information from diverse hydrological behaviors. These models are enriched with static catchment attributes, which, when combined with meteorological drivers, play a critical role in streamflow formation. Augmenting LSTMs with these attributes further enhances their performance compared to vanilla LSTMs, underscoring the importance of these attributes for accurate streamflow predictions. Building on this, a recent study [Bassi et al., 2024] employed a conditional autoencoder to reveal that most of the relevant catchment information for streamflow prediction can be distilled into two features, with a third feature being beneficial for particularly challenging catchments. In this work, we directly derive a minimal set of catchment features from known attributes by passing them through the encoder and subsequently comparing streamflow predictions against state-of-the-art benchmarks [Kratzert et al., 2021]. Our findings indicate that while the intrinsic dimension of 26 commonly used attributes is four, only two features suffice for accurate streamflow prediction. This aligns closely with the findings of Bassi et al. (2024), suggesting that nearly all relevant information for streamflow prediction is encapsulated in known attributes. Finally, we provide an interpretation of these two machine-learning-derived features using information theory techniques.

How to cite: Bassi, A. and Albert, C.: Leveraging Machine Learning to Uncover and Interpret Relevant Catchment Features , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19716, 2025.

The project aims to develop effective adaptation strategies to address floods and droughts in Marlborough, a town traversed by the River Kennet—a rare and valuable chalk stream sustained by groundwater from chalk aquifers. These aquifers act as natural sponges, absorbing excess water during heavy rainfall and gradually releasing it during dry periods. However, climate change is compromising their ability to regulate water levels, making them less reliable buffers against flooding and drought (Seneviratne et al., 2021). This initiative is motivated by Marlborough's history of recurring floods, most recently the severe flood on 5th January 2024, which significantly impacted the community (Wiltshire Council, 2014; Dalton, 2024). In response, the project seeks to bridge the gap between science and the community, fostering collaboration, knowledge exchange, and stakeholder-driven decision-making to build resilience.

The project integrates two interconnected components, forming a strong foundation for adaptive strategies that balance scientific precision with community engagement.

Component 1: Localising Hydrological Models for Improved Predictions
This component focuses on enhancing prediction accuracy using SWAT+ software. The model will downscale future climate predictions while incorporating the unique spatial and temporal characteristics of the catchment area. SWAT+ enables the creation of multiple scenarios, allowing exploration of various future possibilities. The model is designed to simulate the impacts of land management, climate variability, and human activities on water resources, sediment transport, and agricultural productivity across complex watersheds (Wang et al., 2019).

Component 2: Stakeholder Engagement
To foster community engagement, a participatory and collaborative modelling framework (Basco-Carera et al. 2017) will be implemented alongside a community modelling method (Landstrom et al. 2019). This approach actively involves community members in scenario development and decision-making, ensuring their knowledge and lived experiences shape the model’s outcomes, which, in turn, reflect the community's needs. The iterative process empowers residents to make informed decisions, co-creating adaptation strategies with diverse stakeholders to ensure they are both effective and equitable. This approach transforms Marlborough’s residents into active contributors. By integrating local insights—such as historical flood knowledge and land use practices—with scientific data, the project enhances the model’s accuracy, relevance, and acceptance (Iwaniec et al., 2020).

Furthermore, recognising the growing need to make science more engaging and accessible, the project takes an innovative approach by incorporating the story-line method (Shepherd et al., 2019) and art-based techniques (Leavy, 2020)  into its community engagement sessions.Local representatives will not only contribute to decision-making but also actively participate in the modeling process using SWAT+, highlighting its practical value. Additionally, art-based activities will encourage creativity and interaction, making science more approachable and meaningful to the community.

How to cite: Peklanska, E.: Socio-scientific synergies: transdisciplinary approaches to shaping hydro-futures with catchment communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-955, 2025.

EGU25-1698 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Global dataset on agricultural green water scarcity in 1990–2019 

Oleksandr Mialyk

Agricultural green water scarcity (GWS)—restricted crop growth due to insufficient rainfall—is one of the key challenges in rainfed systems. It limits crop production, which can impact not only farmers' incomes but also lead to more major issues such as food insecurity, conflicts over water resources, and supply chain disruptions.

This study presents a new dataset on monthly GWS of the world’s major crops over the 1990–2019 period. The simulations are performed with a process-based global gridded crop model ACEA utilising best-to-date input datasets on climate, soil, and crop parameters. The results are compared to other relevant datasets across different spatial and temporal scales ensuring the robustness of the GWS estimates. The final files are provided as NetCDF rasters at a 5-arcminute spatial resolution (~8.3 km around the equator) per crop per month of each considered year. Such detailed segregation allows for detecting the effects of changing climate (including droughts and heat waves) on the availability of green water resources and, hence, on the GWS severity across different crops and regions.

This work provides a necessary foundation for further studies on the environmental and socio-economic implications of GWS, paving the way for solutions for more water-sustainable agrifood systems.

How to cite: Mialyk, O.: Global dataset on agricultural green water scarcity in 1990–2019, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1698, 2025.

EGU25-2325 | Posters on site | HS3.5

The reducing effect of global greening on vegetation recovery time is disappearing 

Zheng Li and Wenfeng Liu

With the ongoing global vegetation greening and the increasing frequency of drought events, the likelihood of drought disturbances to vegetation is rising. The time it takes for vegetation to return to their normal state after a drought is known as recovery time. Investigating how vegetation greening influences drought recovery time is vital for the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, we assessed global vegetation changes and recovery time over the past forty years using vegetation data. We employed a machine learning model to analyze the relationships between influencing factors and recovery time, while also determining the spatial distribution of the main influencing factors. The results indicate that approximately 40% of global regions exhibit a significant greening trend, with over 90% of drought recovery events occurring between January and April. We found vegetation greening enhances recovery resilience and reduces recovery time. Soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and temperature during recovery can hinder vegetation regrowth when they are at extreme values. In some areas, prolonged greening may lead to longer recovery time following droughts. These findings suggest that while greening typically decreases recovery time, sustained greening may extend recovery duration once a certain regional threshold is reached. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the trade-offs between greening and vegetation resilience in the context of ongoing global greening.

How to cite: Li, Z. and Liu, W.: The reducing effect of global greening on vegetation recovery time is disappearing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2325, 2025.

EGU25-2409 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.5

Nonpoint pollution under extreme climate conditions and possible mitigation 

Wenfeng Liu, Mengxue Li, Yuanyuan Huang, David Makowski, Yang Su, and Philippe Ciais

Climate change significantly alters agricultural processes, impacting the movement and loss of essential nutrients like nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in farming systems. This study investigates nonpoint source pollution associated with three major crops—rice, maize, and wheat—across global watersheds, focusing on the effects of extreme climate conditions through model-based analysis. The results show that nutrient losses exhibit nonlinear responses to precipitation changes. Under dry conditions, nutrient losses decreased steadily with reduced precipitation, without abrupt drops under extreme dry conditions. In contrast, wet conditions led to progressively higher nutrient losses, with N and P losses surging significantly under extreme wet conditions (P: 63.8–115.6%; N: 32.7–106.7%). Extreme wet years occurred more frequently than extreme drought years, exerting a greater impact on agricultural systems. Despite varying climate conditions affecting total nutrient loss, the proportional contributions of pathways like runoff and erosion remained relatively consistent. Further analysis revealed significant differences in nutrient loss patterns under extreme wet conditions across watersheds. Regions with high absolute nutrient losses tended to show smaller relative increases, while regions with smaller absolute losses often experienced larger relative increases. This variation highlights the need for tailored mitigation strategies. In areas with high absolute nutrient losses, the focus should be on controlling total loss through measures like precision fertilization, optimized nutrient management, and conservation tillage to reduce runoff and erosion. Meanwhile, regions with high relative increases, due to their sensitivity to extreme wet conditions, require dynamic nutrient management strategies aligned with precipitation patterns. Utilizing residual soil nutrients effectively and avoiding fertilization during wet periods can minimize additional losses. Enhancing system resilience by improving soil organic matter content is also critical, as it strengthens water retention and erosion resistance. By addressing the distinct needs of different regions, these strategies provide a solid foundation for reducing nutrient loss under extreme climate conditions, supporting sustainable agriculture and enhancing the resilience of farming systems to climate variability.

How to cite: Liu, W., Li, M., Huang, Y., Makowski, D., Su, Y., and Ciais, P.: Nonpoint pollution under extreme climate conditions and possible mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2409, 2025.

EGU25-2746 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Groundwater Drought in the Bruna River Catchment, Italy 

Abedulla Elsaidy, Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Lorenzo Villani, and Ann van Griensven

Groundwater acts as a vital buffer for human activities, offering resilience against environmental, economic, and social challenges. However, the depletion of groundwater resources intensifies these challenges, particularly in Mediterranean regions where water resources are already under significant stress.

This study investigates groundwater drought dynamics in the Bruna River catchment in Tuscany, Italy, with a focus on the temporal and spatial patterns of drought and its attribution to climate change. The analysis employs various hydroinformatics approaches, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Groundwater Index (SGI), a threshold-based method, and the Combined Drought Index (CDI), which integrates precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation data to monitor agricultural drought, offering early warnings and identifying areas that are either affected or recovering. Furthermore, a SWAT+ gwflow model is being developed to explore drought attribution using both factual and counterfactual climate datasets.

Preliminary findings highlight obvious temporal and spatial drought patterns, even when utilizing short time series. The SGI exhibits strong temporal correlations with SPI12, SPI24, and the monthly threshold Q20. Moreover, SGI demonstrates good temporal and spatial alignment with CDI, underscoring its utility in groundwater drought assessments.

Future efforts will focus on finalizing and validating the SWAT+ gwflow model by calibrating it against observed data and performing sensitivity analyses. The validated model will facilitate an in-depth exploration of groundwater drought attribution by comparing outcomes under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. These analyses aim to enhance the understanding of groundwater drought, which can inform water resource management and policy decisions.

How to cite: Elsaidy, A., Addisu Yimer, E., Villani, L., and van Griensven, A.: Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Groundwater Drought in the Bruna River Catchment, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2746, 2025.

Quantifying historical extreme drought is crucial to better understand and contextualize historical extreme droughts and prepare for extreme drought events that may occur in the future. However, the potential impacts of extreme droughts such as those in historical records considering modern day drought resistance and mitigation capacities remain unclear. In order to present the methods of reconstructing historical drought recurrence and conduct a historical drought recurrence scenario analysis under the current defense conditions, a modern day recurrence of the Guangxu drought during the Qing Dynasty from 1875 to 1879 was proposed using the Qing Palace Archives. In which, the historical annual precipitation in core drought areas was quantitatively reconstructed based on snow-rain records derived from the Qing Dynasty archives. And the extreme Guangxu drought was analyzed by establishing the corresponding relationship between precipitation anomaly percentage and the historical drought catalog.. This allowed for the characterization of possible impacts of severe drought on water resources, water supply, food production, and economy under current defense conditions. The results showed that if the Guangxu drought occurred today under the current natural geographical conditions, core drought areas like Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, and Shandong would experience water shortages greater than 50% of their multi-year average water resources. In addition, we found that water transfer projects and large-medium-sized reservoirs will play central roles in drought mitigation in the event of an historical extreme drought. 

How to cite: Qu, Y.: Recurrence analysis of extreme historical drought under the current defense conditions in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2996, 2025.

EGU25-5346 | Orals | HS3.5

Regionally Variable Responses of Crop Yield to Rainfall Events in China 

Jin Fu, Yiwei Jian, Chengjie Wang, and Feng Zhou

Understanding crop yield responses to rainfall is essential for food systems adaptation under climate change. While there are ample evidences of crop yield responses to seasonal rainfall variation, the geographic sensitivities and driving mechanisms of sub-seasonal rainfall events remain elusive. We used long-term nationwide observations to explore the sensitivity of maize and soybean yields in response to event-based rainfall across Chinese agroecological regions. While maize and soybean yield showed concave downward responses to event-based rainfall depth at the national scale, these responses were differed considerably among regions. These differences can be primarily explained by soil moisture preceding rainfall events, soil erosion and sunshine hour reduction during rainfall. Our projections reveal that focusing on seasonal rainfall or national-level sensitivity analysis suggests a 0.3-5.9% increase in maize yields due to future rainfall, yet considering spatial variations unveils a contrasting reality, with maize yields declining by 9.1±0.3% under a medium-range emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) by the end of century (2085–2100). The future rainfall effect on soybean yield is the opposite, leading to a 20.6±3.9% reduction nationally without spatial consideration, but an increase (by 7.0±1.0%) when spatial variations are factored in. These findings underscore the critical necessity of incorporating regional variation in yield responses to sub-seasonal rainfall events, which could otherwise lead to vastly different impact estimates, even reversing the expected crop yield response to future rainfall change.

How to cite: Fu, J., Jian, Y., Wang, C., and Zhou, F.: Regionally Variable Responses of Crop Yield to Rainfall Events in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5346, 2025.

EGU25-5361 | Orals | HS3.5

Assessing Environmental Flows in the Central Valley Across Different Management Scenarios 

Sooyeon Yi, Bronwen Stanford, Sarah Yarnell, Lindsay Murdoch, and Ted Grantham

Seasonal water flow patterns in Central Valley rivers within California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed have been profoundly disrupted by dams, conveyance systems, and land use changes. These alterations have led to habitat degradation, declines in fish populations, and reduced ecosystem services. Environmental flows—quantities and qualities of instream water essential for ecosystem health—are critical for sustainable water management. However, implementing environmental flows in Central Valley rivers necessitates significant changes to current water management practices, with uncertain implications for other water uses. The COllaboratory for EQuity in Water Allocations (COEQWAL), a publicly funded initiative, seeks to improve understanding of California’s water future through participatory scenario planning. As part of COEQWAL, we investigate the impacts of water operation alternatives and climate scenarios on maintaining environmental flows based on Functional Flow targets, which represent flow regime components that support key ecosystem functions. We demonstrate that allocating specific monthly water volumes as an environmental water budget—tailored to river basin and water year type—can achieve these targets. Furthermore, we evaluate how climate warming influences the feasibility of achieving environmental flows under various water management scenarios. Our results highlight both the opportunities and challenges associated with managing environmental flows in California’s Central Valley rivers. They also provide valuable insights into the interplay between water management strategies and ecological outcomes, helping guide sustainable management practices for the future.

How to cite: Yi, S., Stanford, B., Yarnell, S., Murdoch, L., and Grantham, T.: Assessing Environmental Flows in the Central Valley Across Different Management Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5361, 2025.

EGU25-5855 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.5

Impacts of Population Dynamics and Climate Extremes on Water Resource Security in Central Asia 

bailu Liu, wenfeng liu, and shuqiu yang

ABSTRACT: Central Asia (CA), as a representative arid region globally, faces severe water scarcity, which has posed significant threats to its sustainable development over the past decades. A systematic understanding of the dynamic changes in surface water area (SWA) and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is crucial for ensuring human survival and maintaining the regional ecosystem balance. While previous studies have documented water resource depletion in Central Asia, they often lacked comprehensive analyses of the primary drivers of surface water area decline. To address this gap, we analyzed interannual variability and trends in SWA and TWS across Central Asia from 1990 to 2023. This analysis used Landsat-5/7/8/9 surface reflectance data, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon data, an improved robust water mapping algorithm, and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Results indicate a continuous and substantial decline in SWA across the CA, primarily driven by irrigation withdrawals and surface water evaporation. Additionally, population growth and extreme climate change have posed a new potential threat to regional water security. This study highlights the critical importance of ecological water resource management in promoting the coordinated development of regional food, water, and ecological security, thereby supporting long-term sustainable development.

Key words: Surface water body;Terrestrial water storage;Landsat;Google Earth Engine

How to cite: Liu, B., liu, W., and yang, S.: Impacts of Population Dynamics and Climate Extremes on Water Resource Security in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5855, 2025.

EGU25-5984 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.5

Modeling crop irrigation needs in Sweden under climate change  

Hugo Rudebeck, Berit Arheimer, Magnus Persson, and Maria Elenius

In this study we applied a large-scale hydrological model, with an irrigation routine based on the FAO guidelines for computing crop water requirements. The aim was to quantify the changes in irrigation-water demand under three different climate scenarios until the end of the century for nine different types of crops in almost 40,000 sub-basins covering Sweden (450 000 km2) located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in northern Europe. Our results showed that, on average, irrigation-water demand is projected to increase by the end of the century. However, we found that the driest years are not significantly drier but rather more frequent. There is a large discrepancy between the climate scenarios; under RCP2.6 there will be little or no significant change in irrigation-water demand while under RCP 8.5 an average year might become as dry as the driest year under the 1981-2010 reference period. A warmer climate will lead to an earlier growth start, ranging from a few days earlier under RCP2.6 to 2–4 weeks earlier on average, depending on crop, under RCP8.5. The RCP4.5 results are in between those extremes but will reach similar conditions by the end of the century as RCP8.5 shows by mid-century. The main conclusion from our study is that in a warmer climate the agricultural water demand in Sweden will increase and more water allocated for irrigation can be anticipated for climate adaptation.

How to cite: Rudebeck, H., Arheimer, B., Persson, M., and Elenius, M.: Modeling crop irrigation needs in Sweden under climate change , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5984, 2025.

 Forecasting stream flow accurately is essential for managing water resources, preventing flooding, and designing the environment for intricate watersheds. This study conducts a comprehensive assessment of streamflow simulation models—Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model—covering the period from 1985 to 2018 in the Astore Basin, Pakistan. The GMRC-WAPDA and SWHP-WAPDA provided daily streamflow data from the Doyian gauging station in the Astor River Basin, as well as meteorological data collected from two automatic weather stations (AWS) located at Rama, Rattu and Astor. A total number of four soil classes (lithosols, calcaric, gleysols and fluvisol) was observed in the basin. The primary objective was to comprehensively assess the predictive performances of these models across distinct time segments and gauge their reliability in simulating streamflow dynamics. The study commenced with examining the SWAT model's performance, utilizing the NSE, PBIAS, R2, and RMSE metrics during calibration (1985–2000) and validation (2001–2009) periods. While the SWAT model effectively estimated streamflow, it exhibited limitations in accurately predicting peak and low-flow conditions. Subsequently, the machine learning models (MLP, ELM, and SVM) were scrutinized concerning their performance metrics—R2, NSE, PBIAS, and RMSE—across training (1985–1995), validation (1996–2005), and testing (2005–2009) datasets. ELM displayed superior performance during the training phase, boasting a remarkable R2 of 0.94, followed by SVM and MLP. MLP showcased consistent strength in validation, maintaining an R2 of 0.73, while SVM followed with an R2 of 0.71. Despite their merits, none of the models precisely replicated observed streamflow patterns, as evidenced by the discrepancies between the observed flow and the SWAT model's simulations. This emphasizes the necessity for ongoing refinement and validation to enhance predictive accuracy and ensure closer alignment with real-world hydrological dynamics. This extensive comparative analysis offers critical insights into the nuances of MLP, ELM, SVM, and SWAT model performances, highlighting their varied strengths and limitations across distinct temporal segments. It underscores the importance of continual refinement and validation to improve predictive capabilities, which is essential for accurate streamflow simulations and effective water resource management in the Astor Basin and similar hydrological contexts.

How to cite: Rashid, M. and Parise, M.: Assessing the Robustness of SWAT Model and Machine Learning Techniques in Predicting Extreme Streamflow Events. A Case Study of Astor Basin, Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6405, 2025.

EGU25-7508 | Orals | HS3.5 | Highlight

Predicting Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins Using Data-Driven Approaches 

Jeongin Yoon, Sooyeon Yi, Chulhee Lee, Seonmi Lee, Jungwon Ji, Eunkyung Lee, and Jaeeung Yi

The flow duration curve (FDC) serves as an essential tool for analyzing streamflow variability and supporting effective river management. However, constructing FDCs in ungauged basins presents a significant challenge due to the lack of sufficient data. This study leverages data-driven approach to predict FDCs in ungauged basins, thus offering practical solutions for improving hydrological forecasting and enhancing water resource management. The research aims to identify the key hydrologic, meteorological, and topographic factors influencing FDCs, and by evaluating different combinations of predictor variables, it assesses the influence of various precipitation metrics on flow predictions while comparing the performance of data-driven models. The study predicted low (Q80%, Q90%, Q95%), medium (Q30%, Q40%, Q50%, Q60%, Q70%), and high flows (Q5%, Q10%, Q20%), including extreme low flows (Q95%) and extreme high flows (Q5%). Feature importance analysis highlighted the watershed area and precipitation as critical for high flow predictions, and land use and basin characteristics influenced medium and low flows. Scenario testing confirmed that including all variables resulted in the most accurate predictions. Interestingly, variations in precipitation metrics had minimal impact on model performance, suggesting the prominence of other predictors. These results emphasize the potential of data-driven approaches in improving FDC predictions, particularly in diverse hydrological contexts where conventional methods fall short. This study highlights the potential of advanced hydroinformatics techniques to predict FDCs in ungauged basins, improving the accuracy of hydrological forecasting and water resource management through innovative, data-driven methodologies.

Funding: This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through the Water Management Project for Drought, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE) (2022003610004).

How to cite: Yoon, J., Yi, S., Lee, C., Lee, S., Ji, J., Lee, E., and Yi, J.: Predicting Flow Duration Curves in Ungauged Basins Using Data-Driven Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7508, 2025.

EGU25-10698 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Shifting away from animal-source calories in High-Income countries contrasts global Nutrition Transition patterns 

Vittorio Giordano, Marta Tuninetti, and Francesco Laio

Rapid dietary change to more plant-based diets and reduced animal products consumption is a powerful leverage for plummeting the environmental and climate impacts of food habits, key to achieve international agreements’ targets on climate and biodiversity.  Current eating patterns are shifting towards affluent diets high in sugar, fats, animal-source foods, highly processed products and empty calories. Nutritionally inadequate diets and reduced physical activity rates drive the incidence of overweight and non-communicable diseases, while increasing anthropogenic pressures on the environment.

While the optimal composition of  more sustainable and healthy diets has been extensively studied, the current stage of food systems from which their transformation should begin remains underexplored. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of dietary patterns from 1970 to 2021 of 189 countries and 17 essential foods. We examine the evolution of dietary energy intake along with gross domestic product, both at global and country scale, to identify transitions in countries' food demand and highlight heterogeneities from the global pattern.

Our analysis extends the concept of the nutrition transition from a country process to a globally emerging one, characterized by increasing animal-products caloric intake and declining dietary energy supplied by cereals and plant-based foods. Consistently across high-income countries, the prevalence of sugars in diets declines of 27% towards healthier intakes. Among these countries, we identify transitions in dietary energy supply from animal products to cereals and, less frequently, plant-based foods, providing novel evidence for a reconfiguration of diets towards a reduced reliance on animal-foods, potentially suggesting the onset of a new phase in the nutrition transition.

How to cite: Giordano, V., Tuninetti, M., and Laio, F.: Shifting away from animal-source calories in High-Income countries contrasts global Nutrition Transition patterns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10698, 2025.

EGU25-11672 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Assessing agricultural weather stress indices for optimizing crop resilience across CONUS 

Srishti Vishwakarma and Moetasim Ashfaq

The agriculture industry is increasingly challenged by the rising severity and frequency of extreme weather events. To assess the impact of climate extremes on croplands, various weather stress indices have been employed in studies. However, a region-specific index that effectively captures local variations remains lacking. The primary objective of this study is to identify climate-related stressors that impact agricultural systems at a regional scale. To achieve this, we leverage multiple high-resolution, gridded observational datasets of temperature and precipitation, alongside a large ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. These datasets allow us to examine the prevailing and future effects of climate change on major cropping regions across the U.S. over the coming decades. Crop-specific resilience and vulnerabilities across the CONUS are analyzed using a weighted averaging technique, which minimizes redundancy and helps create a tailored, region-specific weather stress index. This research will provide valuable insights into the resilience and stability of crops under varying climate conditions across the CONUS. The resulting weather stress indices will be made publicly available through a Climate Atlas, equipping stakeholders with the information needed to make informed decisions.

How to cite: Vishwakarma, S. and Ashfaq, M.: Assessing agricultural weather stress indices for optimizing crop resilience across CONUS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11672, 2025.

EGU25-11980 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Global changes in the value of irrigation as a buffer against climate extremes 

Shoobhangi Tyagi, Christopher Bowden, and Timothy Foster

Irrigation plays a crucial role in mitigating the impacts of climate variability and extreme climate events on agricultural productivity, helping to limit drought risks and reduce yield volatility. Given projected increases in the frequency and magnitude drought and water risks to crop production, expansion and intensification of irrigation will be an important component of agricultural adaptation to climate extremes. At the same time, there are significant concerns about the impacts that increased dependence of agriculture on irrigation could have for water resource sustainability and freshwater-dependent ecosystems.

Understanding how climate extremes will alter the value of irrigation is critical for managing these trade-offs, and for supporting development of policies to deliver sustainable and efficient use of water in agriculture. Here, we develop a global gridded modeling framework based on the AquaCrop-OSPy model to estimate the impacts of climate change on the agronomic and economic return on investment from irrigation under multiple potential climate futures. Our initial analyses are focused on quantifying changes in the value added from irrigation for four major crop types – Maize, Wheat, Rice, and Soybean – across four shared socio-economic pathways— SSP245 (moderate), SSP370 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (extreme) scenarios – drawing on downscaled climate projections from a range of CMIP6 models out to 2100.

Our analysis highlights hotspots of change in variability of irrigation across major agricultural production systems and hydrologic basins. Our results show that the value of irrigation is likely to increase not only in regions that are currently water stressed but also in those where irrigation has historically been more limited. Furthermore, we demonstrate a significant increase in the inter-annual volatility of irrigation value across many production regions globally, in particular driven by greater variability in precipitation and drought-related production risks. Our findings provide insights to guide the development of irrigation expansion strategies, while also highlighting potential areas where future increases in irrigation could increase potential for conflict over limited water resources.

How to cite: Tyagi, S., Bowden, C., and Foster, T.: Global changes in the value of irrigation as a buffer against climate extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11980, 2025.

EGU25-14432 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Leveraging Hydroinformatics and Stakeholder Engagement for Regional Water Resource Management in Colombia 

Angie Tatiana Forero-Hernández, Camilo Andrés González-Ayala, Sebastián Aedo-Quililongo, and Tania Fernanda Santos-Santos

Effective water resource management in hydrologically diverse regions requires the integration of advanced decision-support systems with collaborative approaches. This study presents the development and application of the ERA TOOL, a hydroinformatics platform designed to evaluate water resources across multiple jurisdictions in Colombia. Initially developed through collaboration between the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and regional environmental authorities (CARs), the tool has been implemented for four CARs and is currently being adapted for a fifth, highlighting its scalability and adaptability to diverse hydrological and institutional contexts.

The ERA TOOL builds on the framework of the Regional Water Assessment (ERA, by its acronym in Spanish), a process mandated by Colombian policy to assess water availability, quality, and vulnerability while addressing anthropogenic pressures. By integrating localized hydrological modeling using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system and geospatial analyses, the tool provides a comprehensive Decision Support System (DSS) for evaluating current conditions and projecting future scenarios under climate variability and increasing demands.

Key features of the ERA TOOL include dynamic visualizations of regional indicators such as flow duration curves, groundwater recharge, and surface water availability and quality indicators, all presented through an intuitive, interactive interface. The platform also facilitates the co-design of solutions by incorporating feedback from stakeholders during its development and deployment. This collaborative process ensures that the tool meets the specific needs of each CAR, enhancing institutional capacity and fostering a shared understanding of water resource dynamics.

The implementation across multiple CARs has demonstrated the versatility of the ERA TOOL in addressing diverse regional climates and challenges, from hydrological extremes to water allocation and quality management. By linking data-driven insights with participatory processes, the tool has empowered decision-makers to implement evidence-based strategies that promote equitable and sustainable water governance. All platforms developed are freely accessible, with the latest version available for consultation at the following link: https://latinoamericasei.shinyapps.io/ERA_CARDER/.

This ongoing initiative underscores the potential for replicating and adapting hydroinformatics solutions across regions with varying hydrological and institutional conditions. It provides a model for leveraging innovative tools and participatory research to bridge gaps between technical expertise and practical application in water resource management.

How to cite: Forero-Hernández, A. T., González-Ayala, C. A., Aedo-Quililongo, S., and Santos-Santos, T. F.: Leveraging Hydroinformatics and Stakeholder Engagement for Regional Water Resource Management in Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14432, 2025.

EGU25-16073 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Olive Cultivation in Southwestern Türkiye under SSP3-7.0 Scenario 

Cemre Yürük Sonuç, Nisa Yaylacı, Burkay Keske, Fuat Kaya, and Yurdanur Ünal

It is becoming more and more crucial to comprehend and manage the effects of extreme temperatures in order to preserve agricultural productivity and food security as climate change continues to intensify weather variability. Due to the increasing demand for olive products such as olive oil and olives in the world in recent years, olive cultivation has started to be cultivated economically in countries with a Mediterranean climate. This study investigates the future changes in growing degree days (GDD) for olive in southwestern Türkiye during the 21st century, using convection-permitting simulations under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Future climate projections based on the SSP3-7.0 scenario suggest pronounced warming trend, particularly in the summer season. In comparison to the reference period of 1995-2014, temperatures in the 2040-49 period are expected to rise by 2.5°C, and by 3.5°C in the 2070-79 period. The second largest warming trends occur in spring and autumn, approaching those of summer in the second projection decade. After the significant decrease in the winter season, the autumn season is expected to experience the second largest reduction in precipitation, with a similar drying trend extending into the spring months in 2070-79, exacerbating the already reduced winter precipitation. Considering the ten-year average of olive production in Türkiye, our study area contains most of the cities with the highest production. Therefore, GDD is calculated for olives over the period between 1 April and 15 October, using a base temperature of 12oC. The results show a clear increase in GDD for olives in the future climate projections, especially in the second period. This increase indicates that olives will grow faster and mature earlier due to the accumulation of more heat. If the olives ripen too early, this can affect the yield and quality of the oil. Nevertheless, the relative effects of an increase in GDD across phenological stages may expose the plant to the risk of damage due to higher frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. heatwaves and late spring frosts). Insufficient water can lead to slower growth and smaller fruit sizes, and also lower oil content in olives that reduces the production of high-quality extra virgin olive oil. Olive growers in southwest Türkiye can mitigate some of the negative consequences of climate change while preserving their productivity and quality by focusing on climate-resilient types, water conservation, and sustainable farming methods.

This work is funded by the project titled 'ACLIFS - Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Food Safety and Enhancing the Resilience of Rural Communities' which is implemented under the “Climate Change Adaptation Grant Program (CCAGP)”.

Key words: Growing degree days, convection-permitting model, COSMO-CLM, future projections, SSP3-7.0

How to cite: Sonuç, C. Y., Yaylacı, N., Keske, B., Kaya, F., and Ünal, Y.: Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Olive Cultivation in Southwestern Türkiye under SSP3-7.0 Scenario, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16073, 2025.

EGU25-18192 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

An Open-Source Tool for Generating Hourly Synthetic Streamflow Series in Ungauged Basins Using Regional Flow-Duration Curves 

Alan Spadoni, Rosanna Foraci, Michele Di Lorenzo, Tommaso Simonelli, and Attilio Castellarin

Predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments using regionalization methods has been extensively studied. While numerous free and open-source software (FOSS) tools exist for predicting regional flow-duration curves (FDCs) at ungauged sites, a general FOSS tool specifically designed to generate continuous streamflow series from these FDCs is lacking. This study introduces FDC2Qt, an R-package developed within a collaboration between the University of Bologna, the Po River Basin Authority, and the Emilia-Romagna Regional Authority. FDC2Qt generates long synthetic hourly streamflow series in ungauged catchments, utilizing a regional dataset of daily streamflow observations from neighboring sites and basin morphoclimatic descriptors. The methodology comprises three key steps: (1) FDC Prediction: a regional period-of-record FDC is predicted for the ungauged site by combining an index-flow approach (Castellarin et al., WRR, 2004) with a region of influence approach (Burn, WRR, 1990); (2) Daily Streamflow Synthesis:  a synthetic daily streamflow series is generated at the ungauged site using a non-linear spatial interpolation method based on FDCs (Smakhtin et al., HSJ, 1997; Smakhtin, J. Hydrol., 2001), referencing one or more observed daily streamflow series from neighboring catchments; (3) Hourly Streamflow Downscaling: the synthetic daily series is downscaled to an hourly time step using a scaling law that primarily considers the morphological features of the ungauged catchment. Validation experiments demonstrate that the synthetic hourly streamflows accurately capture the primary hydrological characteristics of observed streamflow series and exhibit reliability comparable to that of hourly streamflow series simulated by regionalized lumped rainfall-runoff models.

How to cite: Spadoni, A., Foraci, R., Di Lorenzo, M., Simonelli, T., and Castellarin, A.: An Open-Source Tool for Generating Hourly Synthetic Streamflow Series in Ungauged Basins Using Regional Flow-Duration Curves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18192, 2025.

EGU25-18646 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.5

Extreme climate impact on the food trade network resilience 

Xixi Liu and Xingyu Ren

Network resilience refers to a system's ability to adapt its functions and maintain the continuity of essential operations in the face of external environmental changes or internal disruptions. The resilience of the global food trade network is increasing challenged by structural disturbances such as dynamic shifts in internal and external environments, making it a topic of significant interest. Extreme climate events-such as floods, droughts, is a key concern for food production and food trade network. However, little in-depth theoretical and empirical research has been conducted in relation to the link between exposure to extreme climate and the underlying mechanisms that explicate this relationship. This study introduced the static and dynamic food trade network resilience assessment method and applied linear mixed effect model to estimate the effect of extreme climate impact on the food trade network resilience. The results shown that the extreme climate events reduced the maize, rice and soybeans export value and then decreased the network resilience. It also demonstrated that intensity of export competition plays a critical role in shaping the resilience of the network. Specifically, the findings shown that the network's resilience declines more sharply when nodes with higher weighted degrees are removed sequentially, compared to the removal of nodes with lower weighted degrees. In link disruption scenarios, the removal of links with higher competition intensity causes a steeper decline in resilience than the removal of weaker links. Additionally, in weight modification experiments, networks with a higher proportion of strong competition links exhibit greater stability compared to networks with fewer such links. These results highlight the importance of maintaining a strong level of export competition to sustain the stability of the global trade competition network when facing the disturbance of extreme climate events.

How to cite: Liu, X. and Ren, X.: Extreme climate impact on the food trade network resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18646, 2025.

EGU25-21941 | ECS | Orals | HS3.5

Future Changes in River Discharge: Insights from CMIP6 Model Simulations for the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania 

Erasto Benedict Mukama, Ernest Ronoh, Estifanos Addisu Yimer, Winfred Baptist Mbungu, Stefaan Dondeyne, and Ann van Griensven

Water is the main source of sustenance for millions of people living within the Great Ruaha River Basin (GRRB). However, water scarcity resulting from dwindling river discharges has emerged as a major challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening the survival of dependent ecosystems. With the ongoing global climate change, it is anticipated that water stress in the basin will intensify as a result of disrupted  hydrological cycle. This study assessed the potential changes in discharge resulting from future climate change in the GRRB during the  (i) the mid-future (2036–2065) and (ii) the far future (2071–2099) periods. Five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), applied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), were utilized. The calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on discharge patterns. Climate projections indicated that, temperatures are expected to rise by 2–4°C by the end of the century under both scenarios, with evapotranspiration rates increasing by 0–2%. Annual average precipitation is projected to vary by -1% to 3% compared to the historical baseline (1981–2010). Interannual variability showed a projected decrease in precipitation during the mid-future and an increase in the far future. Similarly, long-term annual discharge trends revealed declines in the mid-future under both scenarios, with increases toward the far future. Mean monthly discharge indicated minor changes (-1% to 11%). Low flows are projected to remain relatively stable while high flows will exhibit mixed patterns, ranging from -8% to 7%. These findings highlight increased water stress in the mid-future, with potential recovery in the far future, underscoring the need for sustainable, climate-resilient water management to protect livelihoods and GRRB’s ecosystems in the face of changing climate.

Keywords: Water scarcity, Climate projections, SWAT+

How to cite: Mukama, E. B., Ronoh, E., Addisu Yimer, E., Baptist Mbungu, W., Dondeyne, S., and van Griensven, A.: Future Changes in River Discharge: Insights from CMIP6 Model Simulations for the Great Ruaha River Basin, Tanzania, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21941, 2025.

EGU25-152 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

A comprehensive framework for assessing the hydro-climatic impacts on water quality using data-driven methods 

Apoorva Bamal, Md Galal Uddin, and Agnieszka I. Olbert

Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges causing the disruption of the complex hydro-climatic systems and is significantly affecting the quantity and quality of water resources. For the mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change impact on water resources, it should be measured accurately. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no specific approaches available that can be utilized to effectively detect or evaluate the degree of impact that various hydro-climatic factors have on water quality. Addressing these challenges, the research introduced a comprehensive framework for assessing the impact of various hydro-climatic factors on surface water quality (WQ). In terms of the novelty of the research, the developed framework considered a range of vital hydro-climatic and WQ indicators. While most existing studies focus on specific WQ indicator(s) or hydroclimatic variable(s), this study was the first attempt to develop a tool by combining a set of hydro-climatic variables and WQ indicators in order to determine the impact of hydro-climatic factors on WQ. To achieve this, the study utilized 23 years of historical data (2000-2022) for eight hydro-climatic variables including precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, windspeed, surface run-off, total run-off, solar radiation, and relative humidity in County Cork and nine WQ indicators including temperature, total organic nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity, molybdate-reactive phosphorus, biological oxygen demand, and transparency, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen in Cork Harbour (2007-2022). Advanced machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques were employed to analyze long-term, high-dimensional hydro-climatic data patterns. To detect the historical data pattern in the dataset(s), the study developed 15 ML/AI models to predict the patterns of eight hydro-climatic variables and the overall WQ trend, using the recently developed and widely utilized Irish Water Quality Index (IEWQI). Moreover, advanced statistical methods were also applied to validate the reliability and trend patterns of the ML/AI results.

The research also explored the relationship between the eight hydro-climatic variables and the overall WQ trend (IEWQI scores) by creating two scenarios- actual trends and simulated trends- to evaluate the impact of these variables on water quality in Cork Harbour. ANN-MLP outperformed the 14 ML/AI algorithms in predicting the trends of different hydro-climatic variables (except evaporation) and IEWQI scores, while for evaporation, the hybrid model (CNN+RNN+DNN) outperformed. The advanced statistical approaches confirmed that both hybrid models were effective for identifying historical trends in high-dimensional hydro-climatic data.

Therefore, the findings suggest that hybrid models can effectively predict trends and data patterns in high-dimensional data, such as hydro-climatic variables, with a high degree of confidence (95%) in understanding the historical data characteristics. Additionally, the research suggests that the scalability and applicability of these hybrid models should be further explored using different datasets. It also encourages additional research to assess the impact of hydro-climatic variables on WQ, considering the spatio-temporal resolution of domains. Moreover, the developed framework could effectively aid policymakers, water resource managers, and researchers in formulating strategies to assess changes in WQ due to various hydro-climatic events and promote sustainable resource management.

How to cite: Bamal, A., Uddin, M. G., and Olbert, A. I.: A comprehensive framework for assessing the hydro-climatic impacts on water quality using data-driven methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-152, 2025.

EGU25-1686 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Advancing ungauged catchment hydrology through regionalized ML-based post-processing 

Yiheng Du and Ilias G. Pechlivanidis

Post-processing large-scale hydrological models remains a significant challenge, particularly in ungauged basins, where limited observations hinder accurate representation of local hydrological conditions. In this study, we propose a machine learning (ML)-based approach for regionalizing and post-processing simulated streamflow from the E-HYPE hydrological model across the pan-European domain. Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, we explored E-HYPE post-processing with two different regionalization strategies: (1) individual models trained for basins belonging to clusters of hydrological similarity (Cluster-Specific Model), and (2) a single model incorporating the hydrological clusters as categorical variables (Cluster-Informed Global Model). Performance was evaluated using multiple evaluation metrics (Mean Absolute Error, MAE; Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE; and log transformed NSE, log-NSE) under a K-fold cross-validation framework allowing for spatial and temporal testing. Furthermore, the improvements at each location were assessed by examining different hydrological signatures, including mean, high (Q90) and low (Q20) streamflow situations, using the E-HYPE simulations as benchmark. Results show that both regionalization strategies achieve improvements in performance over raw simulations, including the ungauged basins (e.g. those that are excluded from the training dataset). The Cluster-Informed Global Model effectively balances regionalization and accuracy, outperforming the Cluster-Specific Model in both spatial and temporal testing, and it also shows enhanced representation of hydrological signatures. Building on these results, the Cluster-Informed Global Model was applied to all the catchments in E-HYPE, providing an updated pattern of hydrological signatures across the European domain. These findings highlight the potential of ML-based regionalization strategies to enhance hydrological model outputs and hence process understanding, particularly in data-scarce regions, potentially providing a framework for AI-enhancement of large-scale hydro-climate services.

How to cite: Du, Y. and Pechlivanidis, I. G.: Advancing ungauged catchment hydrology through regionalized ML-based post-processing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1686, 2025.

EGU25-2018 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Advancing AI and Deep Learning Applications in Hydrological Prediction: Insights on Regional Model Development 

Farzad Hosseini, Cristina Prieto, and Cesar Álvarez

The application of artificial intelligence and deep learning (DL) in hydrological sciences presents significant challenges and opportunities, particularly in regional and large-scale modeling. Building on the foundational works of Valiela (2000) and Beven (2020)—which underscore the importance of catchment-wise performance evaluation and uniqueness of the place in regional model comparisons—this study investigates nuanced implementation of deep neural networks (DNNs), specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for regional rainfall-runoff predictions. Insights from recent advancements in LSTM-based rainfall-runoff modeling (Kratzert et al., 2024) and ensemble learning of catchment-wise regional LSTMs (Hosseini et al., 2024, 2025) emphasize the critical role of network architecture and training strategies.

Findings reveal regionally optimized DNNs with identical neurons (e.g., LSTM cells) but differing architectures (hyperparameters) can exhibit meaningfully distinct behaviors on the same dataset. For instance, one model captured region-wide generalizable patterns by greedily prioritizing overall accuracy in natural basins but underperforming in specific catchments. While another optimized version emphasized on anomalies (e.g., data deficiencies or snow processes) or human-induced influences (regulated flows), leading to improved accuracy in specific locations. Ensemble deep learning, combined with systematic hyperparameter optimization of regional LSTMs, effectively mitigates these discrepancies by synthesizing diverse learning perspectives into robust and accurate predictions, align with “wisdom of the crowd” principle (Surowiecki, 2004). This approach enhances the potential scalability of “one-size-fits-all” large-scale hydrological DNN, advancing the development of high-accuracy regional hydrological models.

Despite computational challenges, the findings underscore the potential of large-scale hydrological models powered by intelligent agents, environment-aware frameworks (Russell & Norvig, 2020), emphasizing the transformative interplay of DL architectures, ensemble strategies, and scalability in AI-driven hydrological modeling.

References

Valiela, I., 2001, Doing Science: Design, Analysis & Communication of Scientific Research, Oxford Uni. Press

Beven, K., 2020, Deep learning, hydrological processes & the uniqueness of place, Hydrol. Process., 34 (16), pp. 3608-3613

Kratzert, F., et al., 2024, HESS Opinions: Never train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a single basin, HESS, 28 (17), pp. 4187-4201

Hosseini, F., et al., 2024, Hyperparameter optimization of regional hydrological LSTMs by random search. Jhydrol, 643, 132003, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132003

Hosseini, F., et al., 2025, Ensemble learning of catchment-wise optimized LSTMs enhances regional rainfall-runoff modelling. Jhydrol, 646, 132269. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132269

Surowiecki, J., 2004, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations. Doubleday.

Russell, S., & Norvig, P., 2020. Artificial intelligence: A modern approach. Pearson

How to cite: Hosseini, F., Prieto, C., and Álvarez, C.: Advancing AI and Deep Learning Applications in Hydrological Prediction: Insights on Regional Model Development, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2018, 2025.

EGU25-2422 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

CNNs-Based Snowfall Intensity Estimation Model Utilizing CCTV Data 

Jongyun Byun, Hyeon-Joon Kim, Jongjin Baik, and Changhyun Jun

Abstract

Accurate estimation of snowfall intensity is critical for effective winter weather management, transportation safety, and hydrological forecasting. Traditional approaches predominantly rely on ground-based sensors and radar systems, which are often spatially sparse and costly to install and maintain. In this study, we propose a novel convolutional neural networks (CNNs)-based framework for estimating snowfall intensity using images captured by closed-circuit television (CCTV) cameras, which are gaining attention as prominent IoT sensing devices. This approach capitalizes on the extensive availability of CCTV infrastructure, enabling high-frequency and localized monitoring of snowfall patterns. The proposed model is trained using matched datasets comprising snowfall intensity values obtained from PARSIVEL, a type of disdrometer capable of measuring particle information at ground observation stations, and CCTV data captured simultaneously. The study area, Daegwallyeong in Gangwon Province, South Korea, is highly suitable for snowfall observations, with an average of more than 10 snowy days per month during the winter season from December to February. A notable feature of this framework is its ability to estimate snowfall intensity values from CCTV data by leveraging convolutional neural networks. Furthermore, a dedicated preprocessing step was implemented to extract snowfall particles from the original images, thereby enhancing the accuracy of snowfall intensity estimation. Experimental results demonstrate that the CNNs-based framework developed in this study is highly effective for estimating snowfall intensity using CCTV data. Moreover, the incorporation of snowfall particle extraction during preprocessing significantly improved estimation accuracy compared to scenarios where particle extraction was not applied.

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00334564), Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant RS-2023-00243008, and Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (RS-2023-00272105).

How to cite: Byun, J., Kim, H.-J., Baik, J., and Jun, C.: CNNs-Based Snowfall Intensity Estimation Model Utilizing CCTV Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2422, 2025.

EGU25-3093 | Orals | HS3.6

Positioning ML Models for Spatial and Temporal Modeling of River Flows Through Causality and Information Content Analyses 

Amin Elshorbagy, Duc-Hai Nguyen, M. Naveed Khaliq, M. Khaled Akhtar, and Fisaha Unduche

The use of artifical intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches in various scientific and engineering disciplines has grown exponentially over recent years. This upsurge also includes applications of physics-guided ML models and explainable AI. However, in addition to the dificulties involved in the identification of relevant model inputs, the advantages, contributions, and credibility of ML models are still open challenges, especially when these models are evaluated against the perceptual hydrologic understanding of the system in question. In this study, we aim to investigate some of these challenges using the case of seasonal streamflow forecasting with lead times up to three months in several hydrologically challenging river basins of prairie provinces of Canada (i.e., Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba).

Multiple ML techniques, including Random Forest (RF) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, are used to produce ensemble forecasts for 135 sub-basins of the Nelson-Churchill River Basin, comprising the vast area from the Rocky mountains up to the Hudson Bay, with the monthly temporal resolution and spatial scales of the order of 200 km2 to ~1.0 x106 km2, as reflected by drainage areas of all sub-basins. A large set of potential inputs (105 predictors) is used in this study. These potential inputs include hydrometeorological variables derived from the Daymet database, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s hydrometric network, and hydrometeorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and various static attributes of all sub-basins.

The Pearson’s correlation coefficient (CC) and Partial Mutual Information (PMI) were used, as model agnostic methods, to analyze the set of potential predictors and identify the most appropriate inputs for seasonal flow forecasting, prior to ML model development. Subsequently, modeling experiments were designed to investigate the ML model performance and test the usefulness of CC and PMI based techniques on modeling results. The model-agnostic and model-dependent findings were compared and analyzed in light of the perceptual understanding of the hydrological system. Furthermore, the Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) method was used with selected variables to further explore the causal, rather than correlational, relationships and interpret the results with the aim of developing ethical and responsible ML (ERML) models. We define ERML models as data driven models that are transparent and hydrologically explainable.

The preliminary results of this study indicate that PMI is quite effective in filtering some of the CC-based selections, which might form multiple equifinale sets of predictors. This step is critical for identifying the most relevant and necessary inputs. In spite of the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions, which complicate crisp hydrologic perceptions, the CCM method seems to support the selection of various input variables with hydrologic causality, strengthening the transparency and credibility of ML models.

How to cite: Elshorbagy, A., Nguyen, D.-H., Khaliq, M. N., Akhtar, M. K., and Unduche, F.: Positioning ML Models for Spatial and Temporal Modeling of River Flows Through Causality and Information Content Analyses, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3093, 2025.

EGU25-3400 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Machine Learning-Driven Estimation of Fecal Coliform Concentrations Using Sentinel-2 Imagery in South Korea 

Sungmin Suh, Sangjin Jung, Jungi Moon, Jeonghwan Baek, Seunghyun Lee, Chanhae Ok, and Jongcheol Pyo

Fecal coliforms are thermotolerant bacteria excreted from warm-blooded animals into soil and water, contaminating water bodies through runoff and resuspension of sediments. This contamination poses significant public health risks, especially during summer recreational activities, leading to waterborne diseases like diarrhea, typhoid, cholera, and dysentery. Monitoring and managing fecal coliform levels in recreational waters are crucial for public health and environmental safety. However, variability in fecal coliform concentrations due to human and wildlife activities complicates the management. This study aims to enhance water safety and public health by utilizing sentinel-2 band reflectance data and backscattering albedo to understand the relationship between fecal coliform reflectance in the rivers to generalize the fecal coliform management model.

In this study, we constructed Sentinel-2 dataset covering the period from January 2017 to December 2022 for the Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Yeongsan Rivers in South Korea. To accurately align the water quality monitoring stations with the Sentinel-2 data, we ensured that the latitude and longitude coordinates were free from clouds and not located on bridges. Therefore, monitoring stations that did not meet the specified conditions, with an above NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) of 0.1, and a below HOT (Hazed-Optimized Transformation) of 0.05 were preprocessed. For the preprocessed data points, this study converted the reflectance values of 10 Sentinel-2 bands (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8A, 11, and 12) into backscattering albedo. This approach was taken to account for the characteristics of fecal coliform, which is colorless. Model training was performed using CNN (Convolutional Neural Network), ANN (Artificial Neural Network), Random Forest, and XGBoost. As a result, CNN successfully predicted the trend of fecal coliform in the all the rivers and showed superior performance compared to other models. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for fecal coliform management using Sentinel-2 band reflectance data in the four major rivers of South Korea and other regions around the world.

How to cite: Suh, S., Jung, S., Moon, J., Baek, J., Lee, S., Ok, C., and Pyo, J.: Machine Learning-Driven Estimation of Fecal Coliform Concentrations Using Sentinel-2 Imagery in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3400, 2025.

EGU25-4192 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Web-based Framework for Multi-Objective Optimization of Managed Aquifer Recharge 

Mohammad Taani, Falk Händel, Catalin Stefan, and Traugott Scheytt

The increasing water scarcity around the world has led to a widespread interest in the implementation of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) systems, which offer the potential for storing surface water underground for future use or for environmental benefits. MAR has been proven to be an effective approach in addressing problems related to spatial and temporal water shortages and mitigation of climate change impacts on global water resources. Nevertheless, when designing MAR systems, competing objectives must be balanced, such as optimizing recharge efficiency while reducing operational costs. To address these trade-offs and aid decision-making, this study aims to develop a novel framework for a multi-objective optimization of MAR systems. The paper introduces the first design steps and the general structure of a framework that integrates the capabilities of the existing web-based groundwater modelling platform INOWAS (www.inowas.com) with a hybrid evolutionary algorithm. The framework effectively explores complex solution spaces by combining groundwater models setup on the INOWAS platform using tools from MODFLOW family (MODFLOW-2005, MT3DMS, SEAWAT) with global search capabilities (using Genetic algorithm) and local refining methods (using Simplex algorithm). This allows the simulation of specific MAR challenges such as, for example, optimization of recharge wells’ location by maximizing the removal of total dissolved solids (TDS) at recovery wells, the water recovery efficiency, the recharge rate and the overall economic feasibility, etc. Solutions are expressed as pareto fronts, which represent a set of optimal trade-off solutions that are non-dominated to each other but are superior to the rest of solutions in the search space.  To achieve a tool which eventually provides a robust framework for planners, engineers, and policymakers to design and manage MAR systems effectively, typical MAR scenarios will be defined to identify and classify boundary conditions and limiting factors together with the objectives to be optimized.

How to cite: Taani, M., Händel, F., Stefan, C., and Scheytt, T.: Web-based Framework for Multi-Objective Optimization of Managed Aquifer Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4192, 2025.

Pollution Source Identification (PSI) based on watershed environmental sensing (IoT, low-cost sensors, etc.) is a key topic in hydroinformatics and watershed water resources/quality management, and timely, accurate PSI is crucial for reducing water environmental risks. Machine learning-based PSI directly maps water environmental observations to source information, offering high computational efficiency and emerging as a new research trend. However, the high uncertainty and spatial sparsity in water environmental observations force Machine learning-based PSI methods to face the trade-off problem between PSI accuracy and data volume-quality requirements, creating an urgent need for data-demand-reduction strategies to facilitate the PSI practical adoption in water management. Therefore, this study proposes an X-T-C image recognition-based ResNet Machine learning PSI method coupled with data Inpainting techniques (InRes-PSI). InRes-PSI converts spatial coordinates (X), time (T), and pollutant concentration (C) into 2D images and realizes end-to-end localization and reconstruction through multi-feature convolution, reducing the interference of data uncertainty; In addition, InRes-PSI integrates an image inpainting strategy to fill missing data under sparse monitoring conditions, thereby ensuring reliable PSI with fewer data, reducing the data volume demand of PSI. Tests on real and semi-synthetic river cases show that InRes-PSI effectively handles non-point pollution uncertainty interference, improving PSI accuracy by 6.27% and 7.72% compared to the Batch-Matching method and the LeNet, respectively; As for data-demand-reduction, the inpainting strategy enables reliable PSI even when half of the grid data are missing, which can reduce the density of stations by about 55% in a real watershed. Additionally, we discovered a logarithmic relationship between the river flow field characteristic (Péclet number) and sensor deployment density, indicating that diffusion-dominated rivers require higher sensor density. This finding can provide an intuitive and transferable design for water-environment sensing and digital watershed management.

How to cite: Zhu, Z., Li, Y., Fu, G., and Zhang, C.: Optimal Pollution Source Identification via machine learning approach based on X-T-C image recognition and Inpainting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4909, 2025.

EGU25-5127 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell 

Eduardo Acuna, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Manuel Álvarez Chaves, Ralf Loritz, and Uwe Ehret

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance for rainfall-runoff hydrological modeling. However, most studies focus on daily-scale predictions, limiting the benefits of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions in applications like flood forecasting. Moreover, training an LSTM exclusively on sub-daily data is computationally expensive, and may lead to model-learning difficulties due to the extended sequence lengths. In this study, we introduce a new architecture, multi-frequency LSTM (MF-LSTM), designed to use input of various temporal frequencies to produce sub-daily (e.g. hourly) predictions at a moderate computational cost. Building on two existing methods previously proposed by coauthors of this study, the MF-LSTM processes older inputs at coarser temporal resolutions than more recent ones. The MF-LSTM gives the possibility to handle different temporal frequencies, with different number of input dimensions, in a single LSTM cell, enhancing generality and simplicity of use. Our experiments, conducted on 516 basins from the CAMELS-US dataset, demonstrate that MF-LSTM retains state-of-the-art performance while offering a simpler design. Moreover, the MF-LSTM architecture reported a 5x reduction in processing time, compared to models trained exclusively on hourly data.

 

Reference

Acuña Espinoza, E., Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Gauch, M., Álvarez Chaves, M., Loritz, R., & Ehret, U. (2024). Technical note: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell. EGUsphere, 2024, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3355

How to cite: Acuna, E., Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Gauch, M., Álvarez Chaves, M., Loritz, R., and Ehret, U.: An approach for handling multiple temporal frequencies with different input dimensions using a single LSTM cell, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5127, 2025.

EGU25-5151 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Integrated modelling and control optimization for adaptive drainage management in coastal lowlands 

Henning Müller, Marvin Hempel, Jens Heger, and Kai Schröter

Water Management in low-lying coastal regions of Germany is characterized by controlled drainage of polder areas. Flood risk in these coastal polders depends on the storage and drainage capacity of the infrastructure and the effectiveness of drainage control. Current operations rely on on-site specialists who base their decisions on expertise, system status, and ad-hoc interpretation of weather and tidal forecasts to manage the system and meet variable target stages. Effective management requires the consideration of flood and tidal dynamics of the adjacent marine or fluvial systems as well as the flood dynamics within the polder. Climate change significantly impacts these factors, driving adaptation needs for drainage management for low-lying coastal regions.

To address these challenges, we develop a model-based approach for optimizing drainage operations in a German coastal polder, aligning water and energy objectives to enhance flood risk and water resource management through increased operational flexibility. The model system incorporates deep learning-based forecasts of drainage volumes and water levels, surrogate models of drainage processes and wind energy availability, operational status data, and meteorological and tidal forecasts to optimize short-term sluice and pump operations of the primary drainage infrastructure via mixed-integer linear programming. We show that this integrated optimization approach reschedules pumping operations to coincide with high energy availability periods, thus reducing costs and enhancing renewable energy utilization while meeting the drainage management objectives. This approach is also applicable for anticipatory drainage management, facilitating preemptive adjustments to drainage operations in response to impending flood events or prolonged drought conditions, thereby mitigating associated risks.

How to cite: Müller, H., Hempel, M., Heger, J., and Schröter, K.: Integrated modelling and control optimization for adaptive drainage management in coastal lowlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5151, 2025.

EGU25-5432 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Water Quality Prediction Using Machine Learning with Hydrologic factors and Satellite Imagery Integration 

SangJin Jung, SungMin Suh, JunGi Moon, JeongHwan Baek, SeungHyeon Lee, ChanHae Ok, and Jongcheol Pyo

High concentrations of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in aquatic systems pose serious environmental and public health concerns. Chl-a, a primary marker of phytoplankton biomass, is often associated with the proliferation of harmful algal blooms (HABs). These blooms produce toxins that not only threaten marine organisms but also have far-reaching impacts on human health and aquatic ecosystems. These toxins can degrade water quality, disrupt food webs, and result in significant fish mortality. When these harmful substances contaminate drinking water sources, they can cause a range of health problems, from short-term illnesses to chronic diseases.

Despite the importance of predicting Chl-a levels, earlier research has largely focused on water quality parameters without adequately considering the dynamic nature of river hydrology. This study bridges that gap by leveraging satellite data to enhance predictive accuracy. Sentinel-2 imagery was utilized to monitor water quality, while Sentinel-1 data captured the hydrological characteristics of rivers. To forecast Chl-a, four machine learning models were deployed, with their performance evaluated through Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics. Additionally, the study used Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to unravel the contribution of individual water quality variables and satellite-derived data to the prediction process.

By integrating hydrological factors with water quality predictions, this research provides a more holistic understanding of river systems. Such insights are vital for optimizing the operation of water management structures like dams and weirs. Moreover, the incorporation of retention time analysis offers a proactive approach to monitoring and preventing HABs, enabling more effective management of aquatic ecosystems under varying environmental conditions worldwide.

How to cite: Jung, S., Suh, S., Moon, J., Baek, J., Lee, S., Ok, C., and Pyo, J.: Water Quality Prediction Using Machine Learning with Hydrologic factors and Satellite Imagery Integration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5432, 2025.

EGU25-5440 | Orals | HS3.6

Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Predicting Heavy Metal Contamination in Sediments of South Korea's Four Major Rivers 

jeonghwan baek, jungi moon, sangjin jung, sungmin suh, seunghyeon lee, chanhae ok, and jongcheol pyo

Heavy metal contamination in river sediments poses serious risks to human health, particularly through the use of river water as a drinking source and the bioaccumulation of pollutants in aquatic ecosystems. Industrial wastewater discharge and soil erosion caused by rainfall introduce heavy metals into rivers. These metals undergo adsorption and deposition processes, accumulating in sediments where natural removal is exceedingly slow. Moreover, current sediment contamination assessments rely on direct sampling and chemical analysis, which are time-consuming and costly. To enable more efficient monitoring of heavy metals, there is a growing need for predictive modeling using machine learning techniques.

          This study aims to identify the optimal machine learning model for predicting heavy metal concentrations in river sediments. The target heavy metals include Zn, Cu, Ni, Cd, and Hg. For model development and validation, nine years of data from South Korea's four major rivers (Han, Nakdong, Yeongsan, and Geum Rivers) were utilized. Considering the imbalance in the dataset due to the distinct characteristics of heavy metal inflows from polluted wastewater discharges from industrial areas and other sources, preprocessing techniques such as Z-score normalization and MinMaxScaler were employed to standardize the data. Three approaches were evaluated: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Random Forest, and a hybrid CNN RF model combining CNN parameters with Random Forest. Among these, the Random Forest model demonstrated relatively higher accuracy than the others. By leveraging machine learning techniques, this study offers a practical alternative to traditional methods, overcoming temporal and spatial limitations while significantly reducing the time and costs associated with sediment monitoring.

How to cite: baek, J., moon, J., jung, S., suh, S., lee, S., ok, C., and pyo, J.: Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Predicting Heavy Metal Contamination in Sediments of South Korea's Four Major Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5440, 2025.

EGU25-5441 | Orals | HS3.6

Building a Reinforcement learning Model for Estimating Reliable Algae Concentration: Widely Applicable Correction Factors 

Chanhae Ok, Jungi Moon, Jeongwhan Baek, Sungmin Suh, Sangjin Jung, Seunghyeon Lee, and Jongcheol Pyo

Algal blooms by eutrophication are regarded as a serious issue in many regions including Korea’s Four Major Rivers. Accurately measuring water Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is essential to propose effective solutions for addressing this problem. However, it is very hard to obtain water quality data for all desired regions through direct measurement. By utilizing remote sensing to collect a large amount of data from various water bodies, an accurate and rapid model to estimate Chl-a concentration can be developed, playing a crucial role in addressing the algae problem.

This study utilized Sentinel-3 OLCI (Ocean and Land Color Instrument) data with a spatial resolution of approximately 300 meters. Bio-optical algorithms were applied to estimate Chl-a concentration. Bio-optical algorithms vary in types depending on the parameters used, such as radiance, reflectance, and Inherent optical properties (IOPs). In this study, IOPs were utilized to use the inherent properties of water. Accurate IOPs estimation is important because the coefficients of IOPs estimation algorithms are influenced by regional and temporal variability. The Bottom of Atmosphere (BOA) reflectance, derived from radiance data of OLCI EFR using the C2RCC processor, was utilized to estimate IOPs. Based on the derived IOPs, bio-optical algorithms were applied to estimate Chl-a concentration. After that, reinforcement learning was employed to refine the IOPs estimation process, dynamically adjusting coefficients to improve Chl-a concentration accuracy across varying conditions. Observed Chl-a data from the Water Environment Information System were used for model training and validation. Therefore, this study aims to estimate and map algal concentrations across Korea’s Four Major Rivers. Reflectance-based NDWI was calculated to delineate inland water bodies, and the reflectance data were incorporated into the Chl-a reinforcement learning model developed in this study to generate detailed spatial maps. This study is expected to contribute to solving green algae problems and water quality management by enabling more accurate and rapid Chl-a concentration estimation as it is not swayed by regional and temporal variations.

How to cite: Ok, C., Moon, J., Baek, J., Suh, S., Jung, S., Lee, S., and Pyo, J.: Building a Reinforcement learning Model for Estimating Reliable Algae Concentration: Widely Applicable Correction Factors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5441, 2025.

EGU25-5863 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6 | Highlight | Arne Richter Awards for Outstanding ECS Lecture

Long Short-Term Memory networks in hydrology: From free-time project to Google’s operational flood forecasting model 

Frederik Kratzert

Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) have been around since the early 90’s but only in the last few years have LSTMs gained significant popularity in the hydrological sciences. Related publication counts have grown exponentially, and LSTMs power some of the largest-scale operational flood forecasting systems.

In this presentation, I'll look back at my relatively short career as a student and researcher at the intersection of hydrology and machine learning. I don't claim to have introduced LSTMs to hydrology, but I'll share my own experience helping to develop this modeling approach into what it is today. We will look at what I saw in this neural network architecture, and why I thought it was well suited for hydrologic applications.

The tale goes as follows: Once upon a time, in a land (not so) far far away, a (not so young) master student of environmental engineering was teaching himself the dark arts of machine learning (ML). While studying ML for automated fish detection, he stumbled upon the LSTM architecture. Having just concluded a course on the design of conceptual hydrological models, he noticed the underlying similarity between the LSTM and these established approaches — and more generally, the conceptual approach for modeling the water cycle. With one of his dearest colleagues and friends, he started to work night and day (actually more nights than days) to see if the LSTM is indeed suitable for hydrology. From initial attempts at emulating the ABC and HBV models, to first real-world experiments in individual catchments, the LSTM was showing great potential. But it was not until he discovered the CAMELS dataset and started experimenting with large-sample hydrology that he fully understood the potential of LSTMs for applications in hydrology. Equipped with nothing more than his first GPU, he embarked on a quest to explore the wondrous lands of academia. Countless nights were spent on the computer, forging transatlantic friendships, conducting experiments and writing publications. Eventually, he ascended to the ranks of PhDs by defending his research against Reviewer #2 and the high council of the PhD committee. Fast forward in time, today, LSTMs are widely used and among others, power Google’s current operational, global-scale flood forecasting model. And thus, the now (not so) old research scientist lived happily ever after with his wife and his children, and continues, to this day, to do much the same as he had in those earlier years.

If there is one thing that I would like for you to take away from this talk, it is that I hope my presentation will motivate young scientists to stay curious, to follow their own ideas, to not get demotivated by initial pushback and to not be afraid of reaching out to more senior researchers. I want to advocate strongly the importance of open science, of reproducibility, of collaborations, of benchmarking and of open data sharing to advance science.

How to cite: Kratzert, F.: Long Short-Term Memory networks in hydrology: From free-time project to Google’s operational flood forecasting model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5863, 2025.

EGU25-7069 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Machine Learning to augment global flood modelling in ungauged basins 

Karthik Ramesh, Laura Ramsamy, Patricia Sullivan, Nicholas Leach, Victor Padilha, Graham Reveley, Sally Woodhouse, Joe Stables, James Brennan, Aidan Starr, and Claire Woodcock

Advancements in the fields of remote sensing, and high-performance computing have facilitated higher resolution and coverage of global flood risk maps. However, the distribution and availability of streamflow from in-situ gauges is not uniformly distributed, posing significant challenges. Machine learning (ML) offers a powerful framework to augment streamflow datasets by leveraging diverse data sources, such as remote sensing, climate reanalysis, and hydrological simulations. This study explores the application of ML techniques to generate synthetic streamflow data for ungauged basins, enhancing the coverage, and quality of global flood models for commercial applications. By integrating the principles of physical hydrology with data-driven approaches, we demonstrate that ML can effectively capture spatial and temporal dynamics of streamflow in regions with scarce observational data, or seasonal variation in flows. Key methods include supervised learning algorithms trained on gauged basins to predict streamflow to create a synthetic dataset of streamflow observations. Validation using global hydrological benchmarks indicates that the ML-augmented datasets significantly improve flood prediction accuracy, particularly in data-sparse regions.

How to cite: Ramesh, K., Ramsamy, L., Sullivan, P., Leach, N., Padilha, V., Reveley, G., Woodhouse, S., Stables, J., Brennan, J., Starr, A., and Woodcock, C.: Machine Learning to augment global flood modelling in ungauged basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7069, 2025.

EGU25-7353 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Multi-Parameter Optimization of Brine Desalination using Machine Learning 

Elaf Seif, Essam Shaaban, Ahmed Azzam, and Abdallah Ragab

Air Gap Membrane Distillation (AGMD) is a promising desalination technology with significant potential for addressing the negative environmental impacts of brine disposal. However, the interplay of operational parameters significantly impacts its performance, making optimization a challenging task. This research focuses on brine desalination as a means to mitigate the negative environmental impacts of brine disposal. By optimizing the AGMD process, the study aims to provide a sustainable solution for handling brine while producing freshwater.

An ANN model is trained and validated using experimental data while varying membrane pore size, feed salinity and feed flow rate to predict two critical performance metrics: permeate flux and specific thermal energy consumption (STEC). Different activation functions and different numbers of neurons were tested. The ReLU activation function was found to be the most effective with 25 neurons resulting in a RMSE of 0.068. The model achieved an R² value of 0.92, 0.9123, and 0.9005 for the training, validation, and test datasets, respectively. For the combined dataset, the model achieved an R² value of 0.9156. While flux predictions yielded a slightly lower R² value of 0.8697, STEC predictions achieved the highest R² value of 0.9316, showcasing higher precision in the prediction of energy consumption metrics.

As for optimization, results for the 0.2 µm membrane reveal that optimal salinity levels depend on feed flow rate. At higher flow rates (> 1.5 lpm), a salinity of 65,000 ppm achieves superior performance, producing higher flux with relatively lower STEC compared to lower salinities. For the 0.45 µm membrane, higher salinity levels of 65,000 ppm generally result in lower STEC for a given flux across all flow rates. As indicated by the pareto front, the 0.2 µm membrane offers a more energy-efficient balance between water production and energy use compared to the 0.45 µm membrane.

Differential evolution is then applied to predict optimal performance metrics by assigning different weights to flux and STEC. This approach allows for the identification of operating conditions that best meet specific application needs, ensuring a tailored balance between water production and energy efficiency. By addressing the challenges of brine desalination through AGMD, this study provides a pathway for reducing the environmental risks associated with brine disposal. It also contributes to sustainable water management strategies by enabling the efficient recovery of freshwater from brine.

How to cite: Seif, E., Shaaban, E., Azzam, A., and Ragab, A.: Multi-Parameter Optimization of Brine Desalination using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7353, 2025.

EGU25-7429 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Machine Learning for Reconstructing Streamflow Time Series: An Application to the Nile River 

Camilla Giulia Billari, Marc Girona-Mata, Kevin Wheeler, Andrea Marinoni, and Edoardo Borgomeo

Hydrological analysis and prediction with sparse and discontinuous data remain a key challenge for water resources planning and climate adaptation, especially in large river basins across the Global South.  Traditional stochastic hydrology methods and process-based models often fall short in their attempts to capture the complexity of these systems. Recent efforts to apply machine learning for river discharge imputation (assigning values to any data gaps in the target variable) and reconstruction (the inclusion of other proxy data to further inform imputation, such as climatic variables) show promise in creating complete historical datasets based on a limited set of discontinuous observations. However, these methods have not been tested on datasets from large river basins with a high proportion of missing values. Here, we address this gap and investigate the suitability of machine learning methods for streamflow imputation and reconstruction in a case study of the Nile River basin. We tested a range of common regression models, imputers (algorithms designed specifically for the purpose of estimating missing data points but with limited flexibility), and Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs, models that leverage the advantages of both deep neural networks and Gaussian Processes). We modelled 13 stations with different observational periods to fill a dataset with 53% missing values between 1900-2002. The first set of benchmarking experiments relied solely on spatio-temporal gauged streamflow data as input to the models (imputation). The second set also incorporated climate proxies from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data to model streamflow from 1964-2002 (reconstruction). For this, we took monthly average precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and soil moisture data.

Imputation experiments found random forest and gradient-boosting regressors achieving the most consistent mean and median scores of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) across all stations. Bayesian ridge regression and the CNP performed the worst on these metrics. Reconstruction experiments using the same models with the added input of climate proxies yielded similar findings, with gradient-boosting regression again outperforming the other methods. CNP found a salient improvement in metric performance by including these proxies, while regressors modelled the data less accurately. This suggests that contextual data benefit the meta-learning capabilities of the CNP, but it is too much information for the regressions to capture. CNP was the only well-performing model tested that provided uncertainty estimates for the predictions. Nearly all models achieved an average NSE>0.7 across all stations in all experiments, thus suggesting that machine learning methods can be a reliable and scalable streamflow imputation method. The approach developed in this study can be applied to other river basins with sparse observations to build more complete hydrological datasets for water resources management and planning applications.

How to cite: Billari, C. G., Girona-Mata, M., Wheeler, K., Marinoni, A., and Borgomeo, E.: Machine Learning for Reconstructing Streamflow Time Series: An Application to the Nile River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7429, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7429, 2025.

EGU25-7543 | Orals | HS3.6

Leaf Area Index prediction in the Tropics using Machine Learning and Remote Sensing 

J. Andres Estupiñan-Camero and J. Sebastian Hernandez-Suarez

Evapotranspiration (ET) is of paramount importance due to its crucial role in the water cycle, moving water from land to the atmosphere. This process is critical for sustaining atmospheric rivers and guiding water management operations. Process-based hydrological modeling is commonly used to predict ET in various ecosystems. However, while plant growth dynamics are better understood in temperate regions, the accuracy of ET predictions in tropical areas remains limited. This reduced accuracy is primarily due to challenges in simulating the Leaf Area Index (LAI), the intensity of mass and energy exchanges, and the prevalence of energy-limited conditions.

In this study, we explore the potential of data-driven models to estimate LAI in the tropics and improve ET predictions. We implemented a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model trained using climatological variables from ERA-5 and CHIRPS as inputs. The model's performance was evaluated using LAI values from MODIS at the Cesar River Watershed in northern Colombia, South America.

Comparisons between the selected MLP model and SWAT reveal an improvement over the default LAI simulated by the latter. Particularly, SWAT underestimates foliage growth and fails to capture the bimodal behavior observed in the study area. The MLP model, tested at the watershed and Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) scales, demonstrated promising results. The performance of the proposed MLP model was evaluated using shuffled and sequential schemes, achieving validation Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.5 and 0.99 at the tested scales. In addition, the results show that the MLP model is especially sensitive to the seasonal component of relative humidity. By leveraging remote sensing data, data-driven models become a potential tool to simulate remote sensed LAI with greater accuracy. This potential of the MLP model to significantly improve LAI and ET predictions can enhance hydrologic models' reliability, especially under shifting environmental conditions, and offers an enhanced outlook for better simulating multiple water compartments in the tropics.

How to cite: Estupiñan-Camero, J. A. and Hernandez-Suarez, J. S.: Leaf Area Index prediction in the Tropics using Machine Learning and Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7543, 2025.

EGU25-7742 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

A reinforcement learning approach for parameter optimization in the SWAT-C model 

Byeongwon Lee, Hyemin Jeong, Younghun Lee, and Sangchul Lee

Parameter calibration of complex environmental models remains a significant challenge in watershed management, particularly when integrating multiple biogeochemical processes. Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a promising approach in solving complex optimization problems with its ability to learn optimal strategies through continuous interaction and feedback. This study presents SWAT-C-RL, a novel approach that combines the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Carbon (SWAT-C) and RL for efficient multi-objective parameter calibration. We implement a multi-agent degenerate proximal policy optimization framework that uniquely addresses the structural characteristics of SWAT-C models by optimizing both hydrological and carbon cycle parameters simultaneously. Each agent specializes in distinct parameter sets while coordinating through a shared reward mechanism, enabling comprehensive model calibration with reduced computational demands. The methodology was validated across two geographically and environmentally distinct watersheds: the Tuckahoe Creek Watershed (TCW, 220.7km2) in the United States and the Miho River Watershed (MRW, 1,855km2) in South Korea. The two watersheds, with their varying sizes, climate patterns, topography, and land use distributions, provided a test of the model's adaptability in simulating both water and carbon dynamics. Model performance will be evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (P-bias) metrics. The performance of SWAT-C-RL would be compared against traditional Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) calibration. The findings from this study would show the potential of integrated reinforcement learning approaches in environmental modeling, particularly for complex multi-objective calibration problems.

How to cite: Lee, B., Jeong, H., Lee, Y., and Lee, S.: A reinforcement learning approach for parameter optimization in the SWAT-C model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7742, 2025.

EGU25-7759 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Assessment of Model Applicability Based on Node Ponding Conditions of the Hyoja Drainage Basin (Gwanghwamun area) 

Park Jongpyo, Darae Kim, Soohyun Kim, and Yonghyeon Gwon

A flood analysis of the Hyoja drainage basin (Gwanghwamun area) in Seoul was conducted using the XP-SWMM model, which includes 315 pipeline datas and 293 subbasins. The model was created by considering topographical factors (e.g., pipeline slope and buildings). curve number (CN) values were determined for each subbasin based on land use and detailed soil maps for estimating infiltration. Additionally, a digital terrain model (DTM) was generated using a 1:5,000 digital topographical map and survey data.

In the XP-SWMM model, the evaluation of ponding varies depending on the ponding conditions (e.g., Ponding Allowed(PA), Link Spill Crest to 2D(2D), None Poning(NP)), leading to considerable differences in the calculation of hydraulic heads at the nodes. The Hyoja drainage basin, the focus of this study, features a steep slope in the upstream area and hilly terrain in the downstream, indicating potential limitations in accurately modeling flood volume.

To overcome the limitations of the XP-SWMM model, the surface slope and lowlands were incorporated when establishing node conditions. Areas with a slope of less than 5% were assigned the “2D” option, whereas areas with a slope greater than 5% were assigned the “NP” condition. In addition, supplementary modeling was conducted by combining certain subbasins to assess the impact of runoff from upstream areas on downstream flooding.

The flood volume analysis based on the ponding conditions under 95 mm/hr rainfall revealed that the “NP” condition tended to underestimate flood volume, while the “2D” condition tended to overestimate it by assuming ponding was present even in sloped areas. As a result, the “2D” condition was applied to basins with a surface slope of 5% or less, while the “NP” condition was applied to areas that were not lowlands. Lowlands were designated as areas with an elevation below 40.0 m, accounting for approximately 20% of the total area.

When comparing the flood volume before and after merging the subbasins, the flood volume in upstream areas with a slope of 5% or more decreased, whereas the volume in the downstream Gwanghwamun area increased. This situation was attributed to runoff from the upstream basin, which added to the increase in the downstream flood volume.

The study findings showed that by setting node ponding conditions considering basin slope and lowland conditions, simulating flooding events that closely resemble actual occurrences is possible. Thus, limitations of the XP-SWMM model can be overcome. Furthermore, merging subbasins has proven to be an effective approach for analyzing the interactions between upstream and downstream regions and assessing the impacts of critical flood zones. Technical decisions should reflect consideration for characteristics of the basin and topographical factors when designing a model

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Korea Planning & Evaluation Institute of Industrial Technology funded by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS, Korea). [Development and Application of Advanced Technologies for Urban Runoff Storage Capability to Reduce the Urban Flood Damage / RS-2024-00415937]

 

 

How to cite: Jongpyo, P., Kim, D., Kim, S., and Gwon, Y.: Assessment of Model Applicability Based on Node Ponding Conditions of the Hyoja Drainage Basin (Gwanghwamun area), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7759, 2025.

EGU25-7767 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Scenario-Based Assessment of Water Supply Capacity for New Reservoirs 

Inkyeong Sim, Kyoungdo Lee, Yonghyeon Gwon, and Darae Kim

Recently, Korea has faced several challenges associated with limited water supply and agricultural water shortages, driven by an increase in the frequency of sudden droughts and a decrease in the water storage rate of reservoirs. Reservoirs play a crucial role in the water supply during periods of drought. Enhancing water supply efficiency through optimized reservoir management is becoming increasingly important for efficient use of the water stored in reservoirs during droughts. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the water supply capacity of new reservoirs based on different scenarios to ensure their functionality during emergencies.

Two scenarios were developed and applied in this study based on the installation and operating conditions of a new water source with a daily capacity of 7,000 m³ to analyze and evaluate its water supply capacity. First, a scenario was developed based on water usage; second, another scenario was created based on precipitation levels. The water supply capacity was then assessed for each scenario.

The reservoir inflow was calculated using the natural flow determined by the soil moisture storage structure TANK model, which is a rainfall-runoff model. The flow rate, used to analyze the water supply capacity of the water source, was derived from the flow rate data comprising 10 years (2012–2021).

In the water supply capacity analysis using the first scenario, the reservoir tracking method was used to analyze the daily time series of the reservoir inflow, evaporation, and water supply volume. Subsequently, an annual assessment was conducted to evaluate the impact of water shortages on the daily water supply. The water supply capacity review estimated that, under the operation condition of using 7,000 m³ of water per day, there would be 367 days (out of a total of 3,652 days) with water shortages over a 10-year period. The normal supply guarantee rate was 89.9%. Furthermore, water usage conditions ranging from 8,000 m³ to 14,000 m³ were applied in succession. The number of days with water shortages ranged from a minimum of 469 to a maximum of 903 days, with the supply guarantee rate varying between 75.3% and 87.2%.

Subsequently, the precipitation scale scenario was implemented based on the operating condition of 7,000 m³ per day, with precipitation levels ranging from 10 mm to 43.5 mm and a water storage rate capped at 100%. The application of the scenario revealed that the number of supply days, depending on the precipitation level, ranged between 6 and 27 days. 

 

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Water Management Program for Drought Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE).(RS-2023-00230286)

 

How to cite: Sim, I., Lee, K., Gwon, Y., and Kim, D.: Scenario-Based Assessment of Water Supply Capacity for New Reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7767, 2025.

Typhoon-induced inundation is a critical issue in Taiwan, particularly under the intensifying impacts of extreme climate events. This study focuses on developing an AI-based hourly inundation forecasting model for real-time applications. Observational data, including rainfall, inundation depth, and sewer water levels from different typhoon events, were utilized as input factors. A traditional input factor selection method was employed to identify input variables for Support Vector Machine (SVM)-based models. Nine inundation reference points were selected, and an SVM-based forecasting model was developed for each point. To enhance forecasting accuracy and address potential overfitting issues, a novel model integrating Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), referred to as LSTM-MOGA, was proposed. This model automates the selection of influential input factors while optimizing forecasting performance. The study was conducted in Yilan County, Taiwan, and model validation was performed using cross-validation methods. The results indicate that, although SVM models with traditional input selection methods performed better in 3 out of 9 inundation reference points, the LSTM-MOGA model demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy in the remaining 6 points. Moreover, SVM models exhibited significant overfitting issues, with negative CE values during the testing phase, suggesting substantial underestimation in forecasting inundation depths during typhoon events. Conversely, the LSTM-MOGA model avoided overfitting, maintaining stable and reliable performance across both training and testing phases. The proposed LSTM-MOGA framework provides a robust solution for real-time inundation forecasting during typhoon events, with potential applications for disaster management and water resource planning. The outcomes of this study are expected to serve as valuable references for hydrological disaster mitigation and decision-making by water resource management agencies.

How to cite: Jhong, B.-C.: Typhoon-Induced Hourly Inundation Forecasting by Integrating Long Short-Term Memory and Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7869, 2025.

EGU25-7993 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Hyping up HYPEtools, an open-source R package for analysis, visualization, and interpretation of hydrological models and datasets 

Conrad Brendel, René Capell, Alena Bartosova, Mark Horan, and Duong Bui

HYPEtools is an open-source R package for hydroinformatics that simplifies hydrological modeling and data analysis through a suite of tools for data management, visualization, interpretation, and exploration. Although initially conceived as a companion toolbox for the HYPE hydrological model, HYPEtools has since grown into a standalone package with a diverse collection of functions which can be used as standalone tools or as building blocks for larger scripts, workflows, and apps. Applications of the package include (1) data manipulation, conversion, and aggregation, (2) analysis and summarization of complex datasets, (3) plotting and mapping, and (4) interactive data exploration. Case studies demonstrate how HYPEtools can be used to facilitate hydrological workflows and analyses, both independently of and within HYPE modeling contexts. First, HYPEtools is used to streamline the analysis and mapping of water transfers in South African. Then, HYPE model setups of river basins in Vietnam illustrate how HYPEtools can assist with the development, calibration, and validation of hydrological and water quality models.


Brendel, C., R. Capell, and A. Bartosova. (2024) Rational gaze: Presenting the open-source HYPEtools R package for analysis, visualization, and interpretation of hydrological models and datasets. Environmental Modelling & Software, 178, 106094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106094

How to cite: Brendel, C., Capell, R., Bartosova, A., Horan, M., and Bui, D.: Hyping up HYPEtools, an open-source R package for analysis, visualization, and interpretation of hydrological models and datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7993, 2025.

EGU25-9285 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Physics-Informed Generative AI for High-Resolution Flood Mapping 

Viraj Vidura Herath Herath Mudiyanselage, Lucy Marshall, Abhishek Saha, Sun Han Neo, Sanka Rasnayaka, and Sachith Seneviratne

Diffusion models have emerged as state-of-the-art generative AI models in computer vision, excelling in generating high-fidelity and diverse images. These models surpass previous architectures in quality, generalizability, and stability. However, their potential remains largely untapped in water resource applications, including flood mapping.

This research introduces a diffusion model-based super-resolution approach to upscale coarse-grid hydrodynamic model outputs to fine-grid accuracy in a computationally efficient manner. Aligning with the theory-guided data science (TGDS) paradigm, the proposed model functions as a hybrid TGDS model.

The process begins by running a coarse-grid hydrodynamic model over the area of interest, with mesh resolution selected to enable simulation completion within several minutes. Acting as a corrective layer, the diffusion model refines these coarse estimates to align with high-resolution model outputs. In this study, the HEC-RAS model is employed to generate both coarse and fine-grid flood maps for model training and testing. The subgrid formulation within HEC-RAS incorporates fine-scale topographic details within each grid cell, significantly enhancing computational efficiency and accuracy. Additionally, the subgrid topography maps both coarse-grid and fine-grid mesh-level water level estimates onto the underlying terrain resolution, enabling compatibility with both structured and unstructured meshes.

The primary objective is to rapidly produce high-resolution flood maps, addressing the impracticality of fine-grid hydrodynamic models for operational flood management and probabilistic flood design due to their high computational demands. Once the coarse-grid model is executed at a catchment scale, the diffusion model can quickly generate high-resolution flood maps for user-specified areas. Within the diffusion model, digital elevation models (DEMs) and corresponding coarse-grid flood depth estimates serve as conditioning signals. The model processes flood depth raster patches of 128x128 pixels for both flood maps and DEM data. This raster size effectively balances spatial coverage and computational efficiency.

The proposed approach is tested on four large Australian catchments: Wollombi, Chowilla, Burnett River, and Lismore. Unlike general diffusion models focused on natural images, models trained for these catchments converged faster due to the strong correlation between coarse and fine-grid model outputs. The resulting flood depth maps closely matched fine-grid model predictions, outperforming popular U-Net-based super-resolution models in accuracy. Notably, a model trained on data from one catchment demonstrated strong generalizability, performing well on other catchments with minimal transfer learning.

While diffusion models traditionally have slower inference speeds due to iterative image generation from random noise, this study significantly reduced inference time at the inference stage by initiating the denoising process with noisy coarse-grid images instead of pure random noise. Future research will focus on further reducing inference times by transitioning from pixel-wise to latent space diffusion models.

How to cite: Herath Mudiyanselage, V. V. H., Marshall, L., Saha, A., Neo, S. H., Rasnayaka, S., and Seneviratne, S.: Physics-Informed Generative AI for High-Resolution Flood Mapping, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9285, 2025.

EGU25-9405 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Machine Learning Approaches to Optimize Water Management in the Tagus-Segura Aqueduct System 

Alberto Mena, Rafael J. Bergillos, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Abel Solera, and Joaquín Andreu

The Tagus-Segura aqueduct (TSA) is a strategic water transfer scheme and the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. It consists of a 286 km-long pipeline that connects the Bolarque reservoir, in the Tagus River Basin, to the Talave reservoir, in Segura River Basin, which is one of the most water-stressed Mediterranean basins.

To ensure a sustainable management of the system, a series of water transfer rules were created, that establish the monthly transferred volume according to the total water volume stored in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs, located in the headwaters of the Tagus River Basin, and the inflows to these reservoirs in the previous twelve months.

Artificial intelligence methods, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), have become very popular in streamflow forecasting applications due to their simple implementation, low requirement of hydrological data and good prediction performance. Accurate and reliable streamflow forecasting may have a significant impact on water resources management, especially for reservoir operation optimization.

This work focuses on the development of ANN models to predict the monthly inflows to the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. For each of the reservoirs, multi-layer perceptron ANN with backpropagation were trained, using monthly historical data of the inflows and precipitation. To identify the model with the best performance, various tests were conducted involving different combinations of hyperparameters, as well as varying sets of explanatory variables. The models were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient to assess their predictive accuracy, in each of the subsets: training, validation and testing.

The best fit was achieved by incorporating several lags from the original series along with precipitation data including a single lag. This combination resulted in a fit to the full series with NSE values exceeding 0.7 for the inflows to both reservoirs.

These models could be used to support the management of water resources in the TSA system. By identifying future trends in water resource availability, decision-makers can implement more efficient strategies to optimize water allocation, ensure sustainability, and mitigate the effect of potential droughts.

How to cite: Mena, A., Bergillos, R. J., Paredes-Arquiola, J., Solera, A., and Andreu, J.: Machine Learning Approaches to Optimize Water Management in the Tagus-Segura Aqueduct System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9405, 2025.

 

ABSTRACT

Fluid flow around right-angle faults with a finite conductivity fracture is not only a basis for understanding motion of underground fluids such as water, oil and carbon dioxide in carbon capture and storage, but also important, for example, planning and installation of an artificial fracture for the purpose of irrigation in the dry area. In this study we present an optimal analytic solution of the fluid flow as shown in Figure 1.

The flow consists of two parts, one is the flow around right-angle faults and the other is the flow around a finite conductivity fracture. The latter exhibits singular behavior near the edges, on the other hand the former non-singular everywhere. The solution is thus expressed as the sum of non-singular and singular solutions. Being analytic everywhere within and on a problem boundary thus Cauchy’s integral formula holds, the non-singular solution can be determined by the complex variable boundary element method (Sato 2015). The singular solution is expressed as a combination of partial sums of different Laurent series expansion with multiple poles. We solve the non-singular and singular solutions simultaneously by using the implicit singularity programming (Sato 2015).

There is arbitrariness in choosing positions of the multiple poles appeared in the singular solution. In order to find optimal positions of the poles, we evaluate the discharge at an arbitrary point, for example a black dot in Figure 1, in the solution for some given poles. Changing the positions of the poles in the singular solution, we examine the convergence of the discharges so as to find the optimal positions of the poles, that is, the optimal solution. We also try to explain the reason for the optimal positions of the poles from a mathematical point of view.

 

Figure 1. An example of the solution for flow around right-angle faults with a finite conductivity fracture. The right-angle faults are x and y axes intersecting the origin, the fracture a red bold line. Red thin lines represent streamlines, blue equipotential lines. A black dot is an arbitrary point at which the discharge is evaluated. Near the right-angle faults fluid flow goes along the faults, while around the finite conductivity fracture flow goes perpendicular to the fracture.

 

REFERENCES

Sato, K., 2015: Complex Analysis for Practical Engineering, Springer.

How to cite: Kitauchi, H. and Sato, K.: An optimal analytic solution for flow around right-angle faults with a finite conductivity fracture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9418, 2025.

EGU25-9515 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

A Novel Perspective on Exploring Reservoir Impacts on River Water Temperature Using Machine Learning 

Shiwei Yang and Ruifeng Liang

The construction of reservoirs has altered river water temperature, consequently impacting aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the influence of cascade reservoirs on river water temperature, focusing on six cascade reservoirs in the Lancang River Basin. Seasonal and trend decomposition (STL) and the Pettitt test were employed to analyze the characteristics of water temperature changes. Trend analysis and the Pettitt test identified critical water temperature variation points that align with reservoir construction time. By comparing the water temperature data before and after reservoir construction, it is shown that reservoir construction significantly changes the annual process of water temperature, with a significant increase in low-temperature water. Among all reservoirs, Xiaowan (XW) and Nuozhadu (NZD), two reservoirs with high regulation capacity, have a particularly prominent impact on water temperature. Ecological operation is an effective way to improve the outflow water temperature of reservoirs, and it uses accurate outflow water temperature prediction as a basis. Compared to numerical models, machine learning models have the advantages of high efficiency and nonlinear fitting; hence, they can be used to predict the outflow water temperature of reservoirs. However, most machine learning models from previous studies exhibit poor interpretability. To simulate and predict reservoir outflow water temperature, four machine learning algorithms—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were applied to XW and NZD reservoirs. Hyperparameters were tuned using Bayesian optimization. Results indicated that the XGBoost model performed the best, achieving the highest prediction accuracy (RMSE ≤ 0.25°C, R² = 0.98), with a maximum prediction error of less than 1°C. RF and LightGBM also demonstrated strong performance, while SVR showed relatively lower accuracy. In order to improve the interpretability of machine learning models, we use Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method to reflect the importance of input variable features. SHAP analysis results of the XGBoost model revealed that thermal input factors, such as reservoir inflow temperature (Tin) and inflow discharge (Qin), were the most influential variables affecting outflow water temperature, followed by reservoir operation factors, including outflow discharge (Qout) and water level (WL). Air temperature (Tair) had the least impact. The research frame and results can provide a reference for reservoir ecological regulation and watershed ecological environment management.

How to cite: Yang, S. and Liang, R.: A Novel Perspective on Exploring Reservoir Impacts on River Water Temperature Using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9515, 2025.

EGU25-9768 | Orals | HS3.6

Towards Deep Learning River Network Models 

Martin Gauch, Frederik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Guy Shalev, Deborah Cohen, and Oren Gilon

Deep Learning models for streamflow prediction are now more than five years old (Kratzert et al., 2018, 2019), and lumped LSTMs, trained on as many basins and forcing products as we can get our hands on, continue to pose the state of the art. Or do they?

While traditional hydrologic modeling has long moved beyond lumped modeling, Deep Learning methods are only now starting to leverage the inherent graphical topology of rivers through graph neural networks (GNNs). Such models come with their own set of challenges, both from an engineering standpoint (e.g., dealing with the sheer amount of data from many small sub-basins) and from a modeling standpoint (e.g., ensuring generalization to ungauged basins along the river graph). Yet, GNNs promise more accurate predictions, the ability to assimilate real-time up- and downstream data, make predictions at arbitrary points along a river, or integrate knowledge about human intervention. 

We present a Deep Learning semi-distributed hydrologic model that combines the time-series capabilities of LSTMs with a learned GNN routing mechanism. The model is trained on streamflow data from all around the world, providing predictions that are strong competitors to their lumped counterparts—especially on large, ungauged rivers.



Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Brenner, C., Schulz, K., and Herrnegger, M.: Rainfall–runoff modelling using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6005–6022, 2018.

Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089–5110, 2019.

How to cite: Gauch, M., Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Cohen, D., and Gilon, O.: Towards Deep Learning River Network Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9768, 2025.

The VIC model, as a large-scale, semi-distributed hydrological model, has been widely used in basin-to-global-scale applications, including hydrological dataset construction, trend analysis of hydrological fluxes and states, data evaluation and assimilation, forecasting, coupled climate modeling, and climate change impact assessment. However, on the one hand, since the VIC model was developed based on the Linux/Unix platform, it lacks a visual interface interaction, which causes certain inconvenience in its application. On the other hand, the VIC model requires a large amount of complex work in data preparation, parameter file creation and calibration, which poses high demands on users' geographic data processing capabilities and programming skills. These limitations, to some extent, make beginners daunting and hinder the popularization and application of the model.

This study, based on the ArcGIS environment and using the Python Add-In mode, has developed a user-friendly and low-threshold visualization modeling tool for the VIC model, enabling model construction, data processing, parameter calibration and result display on a unified platform. Firstly, users can complete all the preparation of modeling data simply by operating on the interface. Secondly, this tool enables the non-discriminatory invocation of the VIC model on the Windows platform and introduces multi-process parallel processing to enhance the operational efficiency of the VIC model. In addition, the tool integrates the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the SCE-UA algorithm, allowing for lumped, non-lumped and multi-site collaborative parameter calibration, providing users with diverse options for their research. The tool has been tested in the Brahmaputra River Basin, the Mekong River Basin, the Irrawaddy River Basin, and the upper Yangtze River, confirming its convenience and efficiency in practical applications. We believe that this tool is friendly and attractive to beginners of hydrological models and can promote the popularization and application of the VIC hydrological model.

How to cite: Ji, X.: ArcVIC: An ArcGIS-based Tool for the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10814, 2025.

EGU25-12083 | Orals | HS3.6

Is Artificial Intelligence the Ultimate Solution for Hydrological Modelling? 

Andras Bardossy, Jochen Seidel, and Eduardo Acuna

Artificial intelligence plays an increasingly significant in many areas of our lives. Its applications in hydrology are becoming more common, and many authors have reported excellent results in modelling rainfall and predicting floods. However, alongside the successes, it is also important to understand the limitations of these models. This study presents various issues with potential significant impacts on applications, using an LSTM model and the CAMELS-US and CAMELS-GB datasets.

The first important point is the problem of data quality. Hydrological observations are uncertain, with the largest error in observed discharge occurring with the highest measurements and the largest relative error with the smallest values. The error structure can change considerably due to alterations in riverbed geometry. Furthermore, areal rainfall is estimated based on point observations and is often biased, especially for extreme values (Bárdossy and Anwar 2023). Poor or variable quality of observational data can lead to suboptimal model outcomes. LSTM models act as bias correctors for many catchments by violating physical principles. For instance, water balances in catchments in the CAMELS-GB data are incorrect in more than 30% of the cases because evaporation is unrealistically high, which is compensated for by the LSTM models.

The purpose of modelling is not to repeat what is already known but rather to predict behaviour under varying weather conditions or changing catchment characteristics. Thus, it is important to investigate how these models respond under altered conditions. An increase in precipitation results in inappropriate increases in evaporation in more than 60% of cases in the CAMELS-GB test series. Therefore, the use of these models for climate change studies is questionable.

A major advantage of using LSTMs for hydrology is their ability to provide regional models for a large number of catchments. This is significantly different from the usual modelling for individual catchments. Several studies use static catchment attributes for regional modelling. However, integrating these static attributes changes the model structure. It is shown that a similar number of random numbers as attributes instead of catchment attributes can yield comparably good results. Therefore, the models may not be reliably applicable to uncalibrated catchments or changes within the catchments.

A frequently discussed problem with the application of AI to hydrological prediction of extreme events is its tendency not to extrapolate beyond the range of its training data. However, this is only a limited issue due to regional modelling. By modelling specific discharges, insights from catchments where extreme floods have occurred can be transferred to other catchments. This allows for the simulation of scenarios exceeding the maximum values previously observed in a single catchment.

How to cite: Bardossy, A., Seidel, J., and Acuna, E.: Is Artificial Intelligence the Ultimate Solution for Hydrological Modelling?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12083, 2025.

EGU25-12182 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Regional Calibration of a Lumped Hourly Hydrological Model Using a Decision-Tree Approach 

Giuditta Smerilli, Luca Lombardo, Anna Basso, Alberto Viglione, and Attilio Castellarin

Hydrological simulation in ungauged basins is essential for analysing extreme events and reconstructing historical data. A major challenge is deriving consistent model parameters that reflect basin characteristics. Regionalization methods address this by transferring information from gauged to ungauged basins, linking catchment attributes to model parameters.

An innovative approach - PArameter Set Shuffling (PASS) - uses a machine learning decision tree algorithm to establish relationships between locally calibrated parameters and basin descriptors, enabling spatially distributed and lumped parameter predictions. PASS has yielded valid results with semi-distributed hydrological models in flat terrains such as Germany and in more complex regions like the Alpine areas, but its application to lumped models remains largely unexplored.

This study investigates the performance of PASS for regionalizing an hourly lumped rainfall-runoff model, GR5H, in the eastern mountainous region of Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Specifically, the method was applied to a pool of 23 medium-small mountainous basins, using hourly discharge data covering up to 20 years for many of the catchments considered. The selection of the study region is motivated by the devastating 2023-2024 floods, causing casualties, significant losses and widespread displacement. Extensive levee breaches and damaged river gauges hindered accurate flood flow measurements.

KGE and NSE were adopted as efficiency measures in the calibration process and two independent analyses were conducted, providing additional insight into the potential, strengths, and weaknesses of these two metrics. The results demonstrate that the PASS procedure enables the attainment of good regional model efficiencies without significant loss of performance when transitioning from calibration to leave-one-out cross-validation, confirming the robustness of the methodology in handling complex terrains and diverse hydrological conditions with a simpler hydrological model. These findings highlight the potential of PASS to streamline parameter estimation for ungauged basins and provide a reliable tool for hydrological modelling with reduced computational complexity.

How to cite: Smerilli, G., Lombardo, L., Basso, A., Viglione, A., and Castellarin, A.: Regional Calibration of a Lumped Hourly Hydrological Model Using a Decision-Tree Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12182, 2025.

EGU25-13977 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Harnessing data-driven insights: advanced modeling of discharge time-series for the East European plain, application and potential 

Maria Kireeva, Artem Gorbarenko, and Vsevolod Moreydo

The last decade has been crucial for the development of artificial intelligence in all spheres of human life. The interest in this field can be explained by two factors: the increase in computational capacities and the availability of large datasets in both qualitative and quantitative terms. This study is devoted to the application of the LSTM neural network in modeling and forecasting daily discharge time-series for the rivers of the East European Plain with predominantly snowmelt or mixed river nourishment. A unique CAMELS_ru dataset, including both dynamic and static characteristics for 75 rivers, was created. Reanalysis data, geospatial grids, and time series of meteorological and hydrological characteristics covering a period of 70 years from 1950 to 2019 were collected and processed. As part of the input data preparation process, information on soil parameters, forestation, geological structure, and averaged climatic and hydrological parameters were obtained. Based on the existing LSTM architecture, a model implementation for the selected rivers was created. The dataset was partitioned in the following ratio: 60% for the training sample, 10% for the validation sample, and 30% for the test sample.

The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is close to 0.9 in most cases, which indicates that the model has sufficient predictive ability. The model captures the main patterns and trends in the existing data well, and the low value of the RMSE to STD ratio confirms that it is able to predict the time series with high accuracy. However, forecasting historical extreme events that lie beyond existing time-series data remains a “mission impossible” due to the overall concept of data-driven (DD) models.

An important modeling experiment was conducted on a reduced sample of 5 years, which proved the theory that high modeling results are a consequence of the large length of the data series and not an error. Additionally, it is assumed that in the context of using neural networks, there is no need to limit the time series to the last 30 years due to climate variability. The approach underlying the use of neural networks allows the model to account for climate dynamics when building internal relationships, thus ensuring good data reproduction and high-quality modeling. The current version of the model is a promising start for the development of data-driven models on a major regional scale.

How to cite: Kireeva, M., Gorbarenko, A., and Moreydo, V.: Harnessing data-driven insights: advanced modeling of discharge time-series for the East European plain, application and potential, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13977, 2025.

EGU25-14255 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Water Level Estimation by using Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Deep Learning approach 

Yangwan Kim and Jongmin Park

Recently, global climate change has led to the occurrence of intensified heavy rainfall and extreme floods. As a result, analyzing, monitoring, and predicting flood risks caused by extreme rainfall and water level fluctuations have become increasingly important. In South Korea, river water levels are continuously monitored using telemeter (TM) based water level observations. However, uneven distribution of water level gauges leads to obtain water level data over ungauged stream or basins. This phenomenon further poses a significant constraint for developing spatial monitoring and prediction systems of extreme flood events.

To address these challenges, this study proposes a Deep learning-based algorithm for estimating river water levels using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which enables to provide spatially continuous observations over ungauged basin. Sentinel-1 SAR has advantages in providing all-weather observations regardless of the weather conditions, and their data, based on surface roughness characteristics, are widely used in urban flooding and flood mapping research.

This study extends beyond water body and flood monitoring by aiming to estimate river water levels based on Sentinel-1 SAR data and the variation in backscatter intensity due to river water level changes. It seeks to overcome the limitations of existing observation systems and provide a new methodology that can contribute to flood response and water resource management.

In this study, a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)-based water level estimation model was developed, and σ⁰VH, σ⁰VV, Local Incidence angle from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR (from 2015 to 2024) and Day of Year (DOY) was considered as input variable. For the training datasets, water level observations from In order to find the optimized set of input variables, this study generated sets of input data scenarios based on the Fisher’s Chi-Square test, and the model performance was examined by using multiple statistical indices (e.g., Correlation coefficient [R], Root Mean Square Error [RMSE], Mean Absolute Error [MAE], and the Index of Agreement [IOA]). Overall results indicated that 4 out of 11 stations revealed that LSTM models with all four input variables yielded the best statistical performance. Especially, Nasan Bridge station located in Hampyeong, South Korea, yielded best statistical results with R of 0.77, RMSE of 0.30m, MAE of 0.25m, and IOA of 0.63. However, other locations yielded relatively low statistical results, which can be attributed to the relatively less dynamic water level variations. For the future study, separation of training period based on the rainfall pattern and explicit consideration of meteorological information could help to enhance the overall model performance.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis Program, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

This work also was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT)(RS-2024-00416443).

How to cite: Kim, Y. and Park, J.: Water Level Estimation by using Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Deep Learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14255, 2025.

EGU25-14478 | Orals | HS3.6

Forest Flows: the integration of remote sensing and terrestrial big data to quantify forest hydrological fluxes at multiple scales 

Dean Meason, Konstantinos Andreadis, Barbara Höck, Guilherme Cassales, Serajis Salekin, Priscilla Lad, Don White, Chanatda Somchit, Bruce Dudley, James Griffins, Jing Yang, Alec Dempster, Albert Bifet, João Palma, Adedamola Wuraola, and Amanda Matson

Land-use intensification and climate change are increasing pressure on water availability and use around the world. It is becoming urgent to understand hydrological cycles to manage water availability for natural and human systems. Forests cover 31% of global land area and are crucial for storing and releasing precipitation, however, it is difficult to quantify forest hydrology processes and apply the learnings from one watershed to another.   

 In New Zealand, the 5-year Forest Flows MBIE Endeavour Research Programme (https://www.scionresearch.com/science/sustainable-forest-and-land-management/Forest-flows-research-programme) investigated these challenges with the novel integration of various terrestrial and remote sensing data in Pinus radiata (D. Don) plantation forests. At total of 1,717 terrestrial sensors were deployed above and below ground in wireless IoT sensor networks across five watersheds with a range of climatic and physiographic regions. The Kafka Big Data Pipeline streamed, cleaned and stored the 360,000 observations collected every 24-hours. The fusion of temporally rich terrestrial data and spatially rich remote sensing data provided new insights into the mechanistic drivers of forest hydrological processes at the point (tree), watershed, forest scales. Forest Flows used both traditional and machine learning methodologies, as well as process-based modelling, to quantify tree water use, watershed water storage and release.

 This presentation will introduce a novel deep learning (DL) framework applied to Big Data in environmental science, with a particular focus on the DL-based Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODE) Hydrological Framework. This innovative approach enabled high-precision super-resolution predictions of forest soil moisture derived from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission, downscaling from a 9 km to a 1 km spatial resolution. Additionally, the framework provided reliable predictions for regions lacking direct observational products. We will demonstrate how this DL methodology can be leveraged to predict evapotranspiration, as well as surface and subsurface water fluxes, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions within forest ecosystems. The potential applications of this approach extend beyond forest environments, offering insights for other complex environmental Big Data challenges.

How to cite: Meason, D., Andreadis, K., Höck, B., Cassales, G., Salekin, S., Lad, P., White, D., Somchit, C., Dudley, B., Griffins, J., Yang, J., Dempster, A., Bifet, A., Palma, J., Wuraola, A., and Matson, A.: Forest Flows: the integration of remote sensing and terrestrial big data to quantify forest hydrological fluxes at multiple scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14478, 2025.

 

Hydrological modeling is essential for understanding water balance dynamics, yet physical models often face limitations such as computational inefficiency, insufficient representation of complex processes, and challenges in integrating diverse data sources. To address these limitations, data-driven models offer enhanced predictive capabilities, scalability, and real-time analysis potential. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model was developed to simulate the water balance using open-source ERA-5 reanalysis data, trained with outputs from the Noah-MP land surface model conducted over Thailand as a case study. The trained LSTM model was subsequently transferred to other basins with varying land use, topography, and climatic conditions, enabling an evaluation of its adaptability across diverse environments. Seasonal performance was assessed to understand the model's sensitivity to climatic variability. To enhance the accuracy of water balance predictions, satellite datasets, including GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage, GLEAM-derived evapotranspiration, and SMAP-derived surface soil moisture, were assimilated into the data-driven model, improving its representation of hydrological processes. Model performance was assessed using observations, yielding notable results: correlation coefficients (R) of 0.98, 0.89, 0.99, and 0.99; and RMSE values of 16.77, 8, 5.2, and 0.01 for runoff, evaporation, groundwater, and soil moisture, respectively. This study highlights the potential of combining data-driven approaches and satellite data assimilation to improve water balance modeling,  providing accurate hydrological predictions across regions with diverse landscapes and climatic regimes.

How to cite: Aryal, I. and Tangdamrongsub, N.: Data-Driven Surrogate Modeling with Satellite Data Assimilation: Advancing Basin-Scale Hydrology for Water Balance Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14915, 2025.

EGU25-15297 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Effect of temporal scale on prediction using local approximation approach of hydrologic series in the Savitri basin in India 

Namitha Saji, Vinayakam Jothiprakash, and Bellie Sivakumar

In this study, an attempt is made to examine the effect of temporal scale on the prediction of rainfall and runoff in the Savitri River basin, Maharashtra, India. The rainfall data from six stations and runoff data from four stations in the Savitri River basin are used here. The complexity of the series is analysed first with False Nearest Neighbour (FNN) method, then the nonlinear prediction method with a local approximation approach is employed, and one-time step-ahead predictions are made. The local approximation prediction involves the phase space reconstruction at optimum embedding dimension ‘m’ followed by identifying the nearest neighbours (k) based on the Euclidean distance between the vectors in the phase space. The one-time step ahead prediction is made by taking the mean of the ‘k’ number of neighbors in the phase space reconstructed at optimum dimension ‘m’. For each series, 80% of the data length is used for phase space reconstruction and then 20% of the data is used for testing the accuracy of prediction. Three statistical evaluation measures, correlation coefficient (CC), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), are used to determine the performance of the method. The FNN analysis reveals that the noise level in the hourly rainfall is more than the daily rainfall, whereas the noise level in the daily runoff series is more when compared to that of the hourly runoff series. Since noise in the data limits the accuracy of prediction (i.e., the prediction error is always greater than the noise level), the above may be an indication of better predictability of daily rainfall and hourly runoff than the hourly rainfall and daily runoff, respectively. The prediction results for the daily rainfall showed good prediction with CC values ranging between 0.56 and 0.69, whereas the hourly rainfall resulted in poor prediction with CC values between 0.46 and 0.51. In the case of daily runoff, the local approximation method gave good prediction (CC is in the range of 0.67 to 0.87), and hourly runoff showed very good prediction (CC is in the range of 0.98 to 0.99). The findings of the local approximation approach are in line with the predictability identified from the FNN analysis.

How to cite: Saji, N., Jothiprakash, V., and Sivakumar, B.: Effect of temporal scale on prediction using local approximation approach of hydrologic series in the Savitri basin in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15297, 2025.

EGU25-16098 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Machine Learning Approach to Rainfall Prediction in the Oliwski Stream Watershed, Gdańsk 

Ghunwa Shah and Tomasz Kolerski

Climate change in the Gdańsk region, particularly in terms of precipitation, is marked by an increase in the intensity of individual rainfall events, while the annual total precipitation remains relatively stable. High-intensity rainfall often triggers flood surges, as seen in two major episodes in July 2016 and 2017, which caused flash floods in the catchments of streams flowing through the city.

In this context, accurate precipitation forecasting is crucial for safeguarding the city against flooding. This study aims to predict precipitation over the Oliwski Stream watershed using data-driven machine learning techniques, focusing on hourly and daily precipitation prediction. The dataset comprises observed temperature and rainfall data from three stations surrounding the watershed, sourced from the municipal monitoring system (Oliwa IBW and Matemblewo stations) and the national meteorological network (Gdańsk Airport), covering the period from 2005 to 2024.

Three machine learning regression models—Artificial Neural Network Multilayer Perceptron (ANN-MLP), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and Random Forest (RF)—will be applied for rainfall forecasting. Model performance will be evaluated using statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). This study will be helpful for water managers and researchers in the future.

How to cite: Shah, G. and Kolerski, T.: Machine Learning Approach to Rainfall Prediction in the Oliwski Stream Watershed, Gdańsk, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16098, 2025.

EGU25-16887 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.6

Deep learning for efficient semi-distributed streamflow modeling 

Basil Kraft, William H. Aeberhard, and Lukas Gudmundsson

Neural networks are increasingly used in hydrological applications. In streamflow modeling, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated considerable skill in lumped configurations, where hydrological and meteorological properties are averaged at the catchment scale. However, such averaging may mask important sub-catchment dynamics and routing processes. Process-based, semi-distributed models address these limitations by partitioning catchments into smaller hydrological response units (HRUs) for more detailed simulations, albeit at higher computational cost and with added complexity.

This research proposes a semi-distributed deep learning approach, merging the computational efficiency of neural networks with the spatial fidelity of HRU-based models. By explicitly modeling streamflow routing at the sub-catchment level, the framework seeks to provide improved streamflow predictions, whilst providing spatially explicit runoff predictions at sub-catchment scale.

We developed and tested our approach on a fine-grained grid of 20’000 HRU polygons over Switzerland. Despite the fine spatial resolution, a routed forward run for multiple decades is computed within minutes. The proposed framework has the potential to deliver real-time, spatially resolved forecasts to support improved water resource management, risk mitigation, and early warning efforts.

How to cite: Kraft, B., Aeberhard, W. H., and Gudmundsson, L.: Deep learning for efficient semi-distributed streamflow modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16887, 2025.

EGU25-17459 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Bridging Global Teleconnections and Local Data for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Lake Como Inflows 

Giulio Palcic, Guido Ascenso, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

Drought is a prolonged dry period characterized by a lack of precipitation leading to water shortages. Due to climate change driven by human activities, Europe is experiencing a dramatic rise in temperatures at a rate unparalleled elsewhere in the world. Consequently, precipitation patterns are shifting, and regions like Northern Italy are increasingly experiencing episodes of drought, including extreme ones. Prolonged drought periods have devastating effects on the economy of sectors heavily reliant on water availability, such as agriculture, industry, energy production, and inland waterway transport, while also jeopardizing water resources for civilian use and the health of ecosystems. These sectors could benefit from the availability of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) drought forecasts to trigger anticipatory actions. However, the accuracy of existing dynamical forecast systems often falls short of the standards needed for effective integration into basin management.

To address this limitation, we propose a framework that leverages information from teleconnections, global climate variables, and meteorological data. This approach is applied to predict inflows for Lake Como (Italy) with lead times of 1 to 6 months, which are crucial for long-term reservoir management and strategic water allocation. Our framework comprises three modules. The first module investigates major climatic oscillations to determine patterns in climate variables influencing lake inflows. Mutual information masking is then applied to identify the most significant variables. The global climate variable, after being filtered using mutual information, is aggregated through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which reduces the dimensionality of the data and captures essential spatial features, thus enhancing the model’s ability to focus on the most relevant global patterns. The second module applies a feature selection algorithm based on mutual information to construct input datasets composed of the principal components of global variables and local meteorological variables. The third and final module performs regression to predict cumulated inflows based on the selected input variables using Random Forest models.

Results highlight the promising performances achieved by the framework, demonstrating its ability to generate accurate forecasts and outperform the subseasonal and seasonal large-scale ensemble forecasts produced by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The model achieves a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.73% and a skill score of 0.96 for 1-month-ahead forecasts, 6.17% MAPE and 0.98 skill score for 3-month-ahead forecasts, and 6.00% MAPE with a skill score of 0.85 for 6-month-ahead predictions, showcasing its reliability across varying lead times.

This framework advances automated data-driven modeling for robust hydrological forecasting by employing a novel combination of filter- and wrapper-based feature selection techniques. The optimal input dataset is autonomously selected based on the predictive performance of the Random Forest model.

How to cite: Palcic, G., Ascenso, G., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Bridging Global Teleconnections and Local Data for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting of Lake Como Inflows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17459, 2025.

EGU25-19160 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Meta-modeling of a physically-based pesticide runoff model with a Long-Short term Memory approach 

Guillaume Métayer, Cécile Dagès, Marc Voltz, and Jean-Stéphane Bailly

Surface water contamination by pesticides is widespread across the European Union (European Environment Agency, 2024). A primary pathway for pesticide transfer from agricultural fields to surface waters is surface runoff (Wauchope et al., 1995 [https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735]; Louchart et al., 2001 [https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2001.303982x]; Reichenberger et al., 2007 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.04.046]). This process is influenced by various spatial and temporal factors, including compound properties, topography, application date and methods, climate, soil properties, and agricultural practices (Shipitalo and Owens, 2003 [https://doi.org/doi: 10.1021/es020870b]). Richards-based models are valuable for predicting the temporal variability of pesticide runoff (Métayer et al., 2024 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167357]), especially in regions with high rainfall intensity variability, such as the Mediterranean. However, their operational application is constrained by substantial computational demands and extensive data requirements. Meta-modeling approaches provide a means to reduce the computational time of an initial physically-based model. Among these, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM; Hochreiter and Schmidhuber, 1997 [https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.1997.9.8.1735]) model has demonstrated high efficiency in replicating hydrological (Kratzert et al., 2018 [https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6005-2018]) and hydrochemical time series (Pyo et al., 2023 [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wroa.2023.100207]), making them a promising meta-modeling strategy for pesticide runoff models. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a meta-modeling approach using LSTM models for a Richards-based model to simulate hourly variations in water and pesticide runoff over an entire year while minimizing computation times. The proposed approach was applied to a field-scale pesticide runoff model implemented in the fully spatially distributed hydrological model MHYDAS-Pesticide 1.0 (Crevoisier et al., 2021 [https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04090048v1]) that integrates Richards and convection-dispersion equations, the uniform mixing cell concept, and an overland flow routine. This represents a challenge for at least the following three reasons: i) the time series contains mainly zero values of runoff discharge, ii) the prediction of pesticide runoff requires an efficient prediction of water runoff and ii) the order of magnitude of the targeted non-zero values of runoff concentration varies by several orders of magnitude. The LSTM meta-model was trained and validated using 560,560 annual time series simulations generated by the initial physically-based model. The training dataset comprised 70% of the simulations, with the remaining 30% reserved for validation. The resulting meta-model accounted for meteorological conditions, compound properties, and pesticide application date and rate. It demonstrated high accuracy in simulating hourly runoff and pesticide concentrations, achieving significant reductions in computation time. However, challenges remain, such as improving the precision of runoff occurrence simulation and enhancing the meta-model's generalizability by incorporating additional static parameters as inputs.

The poster will focus on the methodology for the meta-model’s development and the results of its evaluation. The meta-model has been implemented within a fully spatially distributed physically-based hydrological model, MHYDAS Pesticide, to form an hybrid version.

How to cite: Métayer, G., Dagès, C., Voltz, M., and Bailly, J.-S.: Meta-modeling of a physically-based pesticide runoff model with a Long-Short term Memory approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19160, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19160, 2025.

EGU25-19634 | Posters on site | HS3.6

Efficient drainage network control: from hydrodynamic modelling to AI-supported decision-making 

Luisa-Bianca Thiele, Gerret Lose, Alexander Verworn, and Markus Wallner

Climate change is causing an increase in extreme, high-intensity rainfall events, which are locally and temporally limited and pose a significant risk potential for urban stormwater drainage. Particularly affected are densely populated and urban hardscapes, where substantial damage potential is expected. The hydraulics of the drainage network can be calculated with a high degree of accuracy using spatially and temporally high-resolution rainfall data. Numerical stormwater models are used for this purpose. However, such models have the disadvantage of long computation times, which can exceed the time scale of a forecast depending on the application. Our aim is to improve the forecasting and early warning systems for the operational optimisation of drainage network control and hazard prevention in the stormwater drainage system using artificial neural networks (ANN).

The study area is a part of the city of Osnabrück in Germany. To quantify the risk of overflow, a hydrodynamic stormwater model with 1896 real and synthetic rainfall events with a temporal resolution of 5 minutes, durations between 15 and 60 minutes and return periods between 1 and 100 years is operated. The catchment area is divided into 1x1km pixels and one of four risk categories is defined for each pixel based on the sum of the overflow for each time step. In order to check whether the risk categories can be reduced by controlling the drainage network, three different control scenarios of the drainage network are calculated hydrodynamically in addition to the uncontrolled state, so that 7584 (4 x 1896) simulations are available for training the ANN. Finally, the ANN will be evaluated for its suitability to support decision-making for an optimised control scenario in real time. A particular challenge here is the evaluation of the AI model in the comparison of the risk categories in neighbouring pixels.

How to cite: Thiele, L.-B., Lose, G., Verworn, A., and Wallner, M.: Efficient drainage network control: from hydrodynamic modelling to AI-supported decision-making, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19634, 2025.

EGU25-20258 | ECS | Orals | HS3.6

Enhancing smallholder sociohydrological predictions at plot scale by novel data assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture and biomass data 

Mario Alberto Ponce-Pacheco, Linnaea Cahill, Ashray Tyagi, Anukool Nagi, Prashant Pastore, and Saket Pande

Increasing competition for water resources and rainfall variability driven by climate change have led to irrigation water scarcity, particularly in drought-prone regions such as Vidarbha, Maharashtra (India). Enhancing irrigation water efficiency is essential for sustainable agricultural intensification. However, adopting new technologies poses a risk for farmers, as it requires significant investment of time and financial resources to modify their practices. In this context, we have developed a mobile application that implements a hybrid model combining a sociohydrological approach with a KPCA-based structural error model, providing farmers with timely information to support decision-making in the adoption of new irrigation technologies and the implementation of Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs), such as irrigation and fertilization. Although the model explains 20% of the observed variance in yields at the plot scale, its main purpose is to provide farm-scale predictions to encourage the adoption of GAPs. In this work, we venture into providing more precise forecasting to the users for direct applicability for forward-looking field advisories. By integrating higher-resolution data (e.g., Sentinel-2A) and exploring Bayesian methods along with machine learning techniques, the accuracy of the state variables, such as biomass and water storage, was enhanced. This advancement is incorporated into the mobile application to provide opportunistic and precise forecasting to farmers in their decision-making process when implementing GAPs.

How to cite: Ponce-Pacheco, M. A., Cahill, L., Tyagi, A., Nagi, A., Pastore, P., and Pande, S.: Enhancing smallholder sociohydrological predictions at plot scale by novel data assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture and biomass data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20258, 2025.

EGU25-20529 | Orals | HS3.6

Optimal and Phasing Design of Water Distribution Networks in View of Demand Uncertainty 

Narsappa Sudarshan and Seelam Naga Poojitha

Water distribution networks (WDNs) are critical infrastructure systems that must balance cost-efficiency and reliability while adapting to evolving water demand. A significant challenge in designing WDNs lies in addressing future demand uncertainties caused by factors such as population growth, urbanization, and climate change. This study presents a single-objective optimization framework focused on minimizing the investment cost of network pipes while ensuring system reliability, measured by the Network Resilience Index. A penalty function is integrated into the objective function to validate feasibility by satisfying minimum head requirements at all nodes.

A key feature of the proposed approach is the incorporation of phasing design, which allows for the gradual expansion of the network in alignment with projected demand growth. Phasing design ensures that infrastructure investments are staged strategically, reducing upfront costs and preventing overdesign in the early stages. This approach also provides flexibility, enabling network upgrades to be planned and executed in response to evolving demand patterns. By optimizing each phase, engineers can design a system that balances immediate needs with long-term goals, ultimately minimizing costs while maintaining reliable service.

To address demand uncertainty, a probabilistic model is employed, representing growth rates as discrete random variables with assigned probabilities. This approach enables the consideration of multiple demand scenarios across all phases of the network's lifecycle. By evaluating a range of potential future conditions, the methodology ensures robust performance under various scenarios, enhancing the network's adaptability.

Optimization is conducted using advanced algorithms, specifically Differential Evolution (DE) which is well-suited for complex nonlinear problems. The framework is validated using two benchmark problems: the Two-Loop Network (TLN). Results demonstrate that the phasing design approach, coupled with probabilistic demand modeling and advanced optimization techniques, produces cost-effective and reliable solutions.

This study highlights the critical role of phasing design in ensuring efficient resource allocation, flexibility in network development, and robustness against future uncertainties. By incorporating demand uncertainty and leveraging optimization techniques, the proposed framework supports the sustainable development of WDNs, providing a practical tool for engineers to address the dual challenges of cost minimization and reliability in real-world applications.

Keywords: Water distribution network; Phasing design; Differential evolution; Demand uncertainty; Network Resilience Index

How to cite: Sudarshan, N. and Poojitha, S. N.: Optimal and Phasing Design of Water Distribution Networks in View of Demand Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20529, 2025.

EGU25-2496 | Orals | HS3.7

A digital twin of forests for natural flood management in Wales, UK 

Sopan Patil and Matthew Cooper

Natural flood management (NFM) involves the use of natural processes and environments to mitigate flood risk. Large tracts of upland areas in Wales are used for commercial forestry. Appropriate management of the forest structure, species and age diversity, and harvesting schedules in these areas has the potential to provide significant NFM benefits, which have not yet been fully explored. In this study, we sought to develop a digital twin of the forests in the Afon Pennal catchment, located near Machynlleth in mid-Wales, through a novel instrumental setup to collect the canopy throughfall data in real-time and combine it with satellite-derived forest parameters to simulate the impact of forest management on the river’s streamflow response. The Afon Pennal catchment is owned and managed by Natural Resources Wales and consists of both managed and unmanaged forest areas at differing stages of maturity. We attached LoRaWAN® sensors to 22 tipping bucket rain gauges placed under different types of forest canopy at five locations within the catchment, which enabled real-time data collection at a 5-minute interval. Remotely sensed data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellite was used to obtain the Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) values at a daily temporal resolution. These data were used to train an integrated model representing the forest canopy interception and catchment hydrological processes and then simulate river streamflow under various forest-type configurations and harvesting scenarios. Our results show that the integrated model has the capability to model streamflow based on remotely sensed LAI and FVC values, making it a potentially valuable tool for aiding and informing forest management planning in the future.

How to cite: Patil, S. and Cooper, M.: A digital twin of forests for natural flood management in Wales, UK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2496, 2025.

EGU25-3403 | ECS | Orals | HS3.7 | Highlight

Study on the Framework for Real time Total Suspended Solids Monitoring using Sentinel-2 and Edge Artificial Intelligence 

JunGi Moon, Sangjin Jung, Sungmin Suh, Jeong Hwan Baek, Seunghyeon Lee, Chanhae Ok, and Jongcheol Pyo

Monitoring total suspended solids (TSS) is critical for understanding water quality and managing pollution in river ecosystems. However, traditional methods face challenges in achieving real-time estimates in resource-constrained environments. This study aims to develop an optimized framework for convolutional neural network (CNN) to estimate TSS concentrations using Sentinel-2 multispectral data, with a focus on lightweight architecture and quantization techniques for real-time applications. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) combined with Pareto optimization was used to identify lightweight CNN models, ensuring high performance with minimal computational cost. Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) and Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) were applied to further compress model sizes while maintaining accuracy. Performance was evaluated using metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).

As a result, the lightweight Mobilenet (8.11 MB) attained an NSE of 0.828, and quantization further reduced the model size by 91%, yielding a compact 0.74 MB model with an enhanced NSE of 0.832. This quantized TSS estimation model showed the potential for real-time TSS estimation on mobile and edge devices. The proposed lightweighting and quantization framework provides a scalable solution for real-time TSS monitoring, connecting advanced machine learning methods with practical environmental applications. This approach enables efficient, real-time water quality assessment in a variety of environmental conditions, making it suitable for use on resource-constrained platforms such as drones, unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites.

How to cite: Moon, J., Jung, S., Suh, S., Baek, J. H., Lee, S., Ok, C., and Pyo, J.: Study on the Framework for Real time Total Suspended Solids Monitoring using Sentinel-2 and Edge Artificial Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3403, 2025.

River ice dynamics significantly impact hydrological processes, ecological systems, and water resource management, particularly in boreal sub-Arctic regions such as Finland. Accurate river ice extent and phenology monitoring is crucial for understanding climate change impacts, improving water management, and mitigating ice-related risks. Field-based river ice monitoring methods face limitations in spatiotemporal coverage and accuracy. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing data and advanced analytical techniques to improve river ice monitoring and prediction capabilities.

Utilizing both optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery, combined with in-situ observations from fixed cameras, we develop high-resolution algorithms to detect river ice extent and assess its phenological characteristics. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using lake ice monitoring as a proxy for river ice dynamics, leveraging proximal lake-river systems to predict river ice conditions. Advanced digital twin frameworks will derive critical ice parameters, such as freeze-up, break-up, and ice thickness, enabling real-time monitoring and decision-making.

This research addresses the challenges of monitoring river ice variations by integrating multi-source observational data into predictive models. By enhancing river ice observations' spatial and temporal resolution, this study contributes to sustainable water resource management and supports global adaptation strategies aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings highlight the transformative potential of digital solutions in hydrological research and river basin management.

How to cite: Qiu, J. and Torabi Haghighi, A.: High-Resolution Mapping of Boreal Fluvial Ice Extent Variations from the Perspective of Lake Ice Changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6120, 2025.

EGU25-6175 | ECS | Orals | HS3.7

Springtime melting and DOC leaching from northern fen – how changing snow conditions impact spatial hydrological processes in peatlands 

Petra Korhonen, Pertti Ala-Aho, Bjørn Kløve, and Hannu Marttila

Northern peatlands have a key role in global carbon exchange but at the same time they are expected to face severe climate change driven alterations. A substantial fraction of the peatland carbon exchange occurs through lateral flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and due to the strong seasonality DOC dynamics in northern environments are prone to ongoing hydrologic and climatic changes. Changes in snow accumulation and melt can alter DOC leaching patterns and thus a detailed understanding of the processes occurring during the spring melt period is required. Although recently more attention has been drawn to exploring the high-resolution temporal dynamics in lateral carbon flux, spatial processes in peatland DOC transport are still not adequately documented and understood. In addition, further effort is needed to combine high-resolution spatial and temporal data. We aim to address this gap by using high-resolution unmanned aircraft system (UAS) monitoring of snow cover and melt during the peak melt period with daily UAS mapping in spring 2024. The spatial mapping is combined with high-frequency in-situ DOC and hydrological monitoring in Puukkosuo fen located next to Oulanka Research Station, northeastern Finland. Our installations include a stream gauging station in the peatland outlet with continuous UV-Vis spectroscopy based water quality measurements (DOC, nitrate, turbidity) along with pH and water isotope monitoring. We also monitor other key hydrological parameters in groundwater wells. The objective was to document spatial variations in snow cover melt and hydrological activation, link these spatial processes to DOC export, and identify the key spatiotemporal processes occurring during the spring melt period. With this approach, we work towards a better understanding of peatland ecohydrology, develop and test methods to use novel monitoring techniques for peatland research and management, and provide framework for predictions of peatland carbon dynamics in response to changing snow regimes.

How to cite: Korhonen, P., Ala-Aho, P., Kløve, B., and Marttila, H.: Springtime melting and DOC leaching from northern fen – how changing snow conditions impact spatial hydrological processes in peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6175, 2025.

EGU25-8005 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.7

Identifying Atlantic salmon spawning areas based on multispectral airborne laser scanning, and hydraulic modeling 

Emmy Kärkkäinen, Ville Kankare, Mikel Calle, Harri Kaartinen, Jaakko Erkinaro, and Petteri Alho

Modern fishery management and fish stock conservation are often based on estimated biological reference points or conservation limits. For Atlantic salmon, the reference points, defined as spawning targets, are based on the definition of spawning areas. Based on previous studies water depth, flow velocity and substrate type (particle size) are considered the most important instream habitat variables in determining the spawning habitat selection of salmon. The large subarctic Tana River, located in northern Fennoscandia, is one of the most biologically diverse salmon rivers in the world. The importance of salmon fishing to the local community is significant. The catchment area of the Tana River system is c. 16.400 km2, the main stem is approximately 200 km long and has several tributaries. More than 90 % of the catchment area is subarctic tundra, forest, swamp and wetlands, practically remote wilderness.

The location and size of spawning areas in the Tana River system relies on coarse resolution maps and subjective habitat evaluation (local knowledge and expert judgement). Remote sensing and hydraulic modeling offer a quantitative, objective, spatially continuous and high-resolution approach for identifying the spawning areas. Water depths and flow velocities have been studied by hydraulic modeling for decades. The hydraulic model offers the opportunity to simulate different flow conditions and make predictions. Remote sensing is increasingly used for mapping fluvial habitats, and by utilizing the novel multispectral (including green wavelength) airborne laser scanning (ALS), it is possible to collect high detailed spatial data simultaneously from the riparian zone and underwater environment characteristics.

The aim of this study is to use quantitative and data-based approach to identify potential salmon spawning areas in the Tana River, and to examine how multispectral ALS, aerial photogrammetry and hydraulic modeling can be used to characterize hydromorphological variables important to salmon spawning areas. By integrating high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from multispectral ALS and hydraulic data, the hydraulic model will be generated to identify the ideal depth and velocity areas for spawning, and simulate different water levels and discharge scenarios. The substrate type is defined based on ALS data and aerial photographs. The model is also used for studying the effects of extremes, such as floods and droughts, on the spawning areas. The validation will be done by comparing modeling results with habitat and hydraulic data collected from the river system with conventional means and results of long-term electrofishing surveys. The research is carried out as part of the Digital Waters (DIWA) flagship and the DIWA PhD pilot.

How to cite: Kärkkäinen, E., Kankare, V., Calle, M., Kaartinen, H., Erkinaro, J., and Alho, P.: Identifying Atlantic salmon spawning areas based on multispectral airborne laser scanning, and hydraulic modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8005, 2025.

EGU25-8149 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.7

How are groundwater-surface water interactions and carbon transport interconnected on a river valley scale? 

Yanni Yang, Jarkko Okkonen, Kirsti Korkka-Niemi, Pertti Ala-Aho, and Hannu Marttila

Observations over recent decades in cold regions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier snowmelt, and rapidly increasing precipitation and runoff, underscore the dynamic nature of groundwater (GW)-surface water (SW) interactions. These changes result in distinct spatiotemporal exchange flow patterns, which in turn enhance the variability of biogeochemical processes, with critical implications for carbon cycle and water-resource budgets. Despite their significance, our current understanding of GW-SW interactions and their biogeochemical implications remains limited. Therefore, it is essential to integrate multidimensional analyses, spatiotemporal scales, and interface hydraulic characterization into modelling frameworks. Our target is to provide a comprehensive representation of the interconnections between GW-SW interactions and diverse river valley scale dissolved carbon transport in the north boreal aquifer, at the Oulanka Research Station, Finland. This target can be further divided into three major categories: i) Development of a conceptual model for the entire river valley. This includes understanding GW-SW processes, particularly changes in aquifer permeability during frozen and thawed periods, and devising tailored methods to investigate the flow paths, exchange rates, and associated hydrogeochemical processes. ii) Linking GW-SW dynamics to carbon cycling through hydrogeochemical analyses. This involves identifying spatiotemporal variability in GW geochemistry via statistical analysis and improving this conceptual framework using supplementary data on various redox conditions and stable isotopes (δ2H and δ18O) as environmental tracers. iii) Under the Digital Waters (DIWA) flagship initiative, we undertake site-specific digitalization and modelling of GW-SW processes across river valleys. This effort aims to accurately simulate water movement and carbon cycling within diverse environments, with a specific focus on examining the connectivity and distinctions between river-aquifer, hillslope-aquifer, and peatland-aquifer systems. The research hypothesis will be tested through hydrological analyses, supported by high-resolution 3D GW flow modelling. This process encompasses data collection and interpretation, hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical characterization, conceptual model development, and numerical simulations using the GMS software MODFLOW package and the Amanzi-ATS software under varying boundary conditions and disturbances.

How to cite: Yang, Y., Okkonen, J., Korkka-Niemi, K., Ala-Aho, P., and Marttila, H.: How are groundwater-surface water interactions and carbon transport interconnected on a river valley scale?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8149, 2025.

EGU25-8770 | Posters on site | HS3.7

RadX: Urban Resilience SaaS 

Guillaume Drouen, Emna Chikhaoui, Daniel Schertzer, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia

Urban areas face escalating risks from localised extreme precipitation events, characterised by unprecedented rainfall volumes and increasing frequency of short-duration, high-intensity storms, posing significant challenges to urban infrastructure and public safety.

The intricate nature of urban hydro-meteorology presents significant scientific and practical challenges due to the strongly nonlinear characteristics of urban dynamics, of the embedding geophysical fields, and their associated extreme variability across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

The Fresnel platform, an advanced urban hydro-meteorological observatory, merges conceptual models and field observations. It has been purposely set-up to provide the concerned communities with the necessary observation data thanks to the deployment of numerous high resolution sensors, that easily yield Big Data. Additionally, it offers appropriate software tools to analyse and simulate this data across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

Part of this platform, RadX SaaS provides a graphical interface for Multi-Hydro, an in-house fully distributed and physically-based hydrological model developed at École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC). This interface allows users to seamlessly launch simulations, leveraging the resources of dedicated high-performance computing infrastructure. Multi-Hydro integrates four open-source software applications developed by the scientific community, simulating various aspects of the urban water cycle, including surface flow, sewer flow, ground flow, and precipitation. Directly from the RadX web interface, user can set up different scenarios on a given catchment, adjust land use parameters, and analyse their impact on discharge within the drainage system. Users can select either actual rainfall events recorded by the dual X-band weather radar located at ENPC campus East of Paris. Alternatively, for educational purposes, they can input their own custom synthetic rainfall data.

RadX also now provides real-time and historical data from the newly acquired Micro Rain Radar, part of the TARANIS (exTreme and multi-scAle RAiNdrop parIS observatory) platform. This radar profiler offers unique meteorological insights by providing Doppler spectra of hydrometeors. In the context of the France-Taiwan Ra2DW (Radar Rainfall Drop size distribution and Wind) project, this instrument will be used to evaluate and quantify the impact of wind drift effect and DSD variability on ground rainfall estimation. Eventually, this research work will enable updated radar rainfall estimates and associated uncertainties, which are then to be applied to the Multi-Hydro hydrological model.

Additional components can be integrated into RadX to meet specific requirements using visual tools and forecasting systems, including those from third parties. The platform continues to evolve through an iterative development process, driven by ongoing feedback and requests from both ENPC students, scientific researchers and industry professionals.

Authors acknowledge the France-Taiwan Ra2DW project, supported in France by the French National Research Agency (grant number ANR-23-CE01-0019-01).

How to cite: Drouen, G., Chikhaoui, E., Schertzer, D., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: RadX: Urban Resilience SaaS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8770, 2025.

EGU25-9611 | ECS | Orals | HS3.7

Impact of ice cover loss on sediment transport processes in seasonally frozen rivers 

Karoliina Lintunen, Elina Kasvi, and Petteri Alho

In more than half of Earth’s rivers, ice cover is observed at some point during the hydrological year. Ice cover influences rivers' hydrological and geomorphological processes, with altered flow properties leading to reduced sediment transport capacity. The duration of river ice cover has been observed to be shortening, a trend predicted to continue in the future. As a result of climate change, freezing and breakup times, as well as the length of river ice cover periods, are shifting. Consequently, sediment transport processes are also changing, with relatively unknown effects on environments where ice cover has historically been a recurring phenomenon.

This study aims to quantify the effects of shorter river ice cover periods and complete ice cover loss on sediment transport in seasonally freezing rivers. To achieve this, we employ hydraulic modelling to analyse these impacts. We use known discharge and weather event data to model how wintertime sediment transport is influenced by changing freeze-thaw cycles and the shortening or complete disappearance of permanent ice cover periods. To assess the potential for sediment erosion, transport, and deposition under changing river ice conditions, we use HECRAS 1D and 2D models to gain insights into sediment transport processes. Preliminary modelling results are presented to evaluate current sediment dynamics and predict future scenarios under evolving river ice conditions.

The study focuses on three Finnish watersheds to represent regional differences. The first site, the Tana River in northern Finland, is a boreal sub-Arctic, snow-dominated watershed with an ice-covered period from October to May or June. The second site, the Oulanka River in northeast Finland, currently changing from a snow-dominated to a rain-dominated regime, with ice cover from November to early May. The third site, the Uskela River in southern Finland, is a hemiboreal, rain-dominated watershed with varying ice cover depending on seasonal frost and thaw cycles. The rivers differ in sediment properties: Tana has a gravel bed, Oulanka has a sand bed, and Uskela has a clay bed. Field campaigns at these sites collected data for hydraulic modelling, including airborne laser scanning, discharge measurements, and water level monitoring.

 

How to cite: Lintunen, K., Kasvi, E., and Alho, P.: Impact of ice cover loss on sediment transport processes in seasonally frozen rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9611, 2025.

EGU25-11123 | Posters on site | HS3.7

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Hydraulic Monitoring in Water Diversion Projects with Limited Cross-Section Data 

Jiangang Feng, Zhongbin Li, Tong Mu, Xin Li, Pengcheng Li, and Shangtuo Qian

Long-distance open-channel water diversion projects, such as China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project, have significantly mitigated regional water supply-demand imbalances. However, the hydraulic behavior of open channels during water conveyance is highly complex, particularly under abnormal conditions like extreme weather or equipment failures, which can cause abrupt hydraulic changes, rapid water level rises, and even local overtopping or other safety hazards. Therefore, global, real-time, and accurate monitoring of open-channel hydraulics is essential to ensure the project's safe and efficient operation. Hydraulic characteristics of open channels are typically obtained through hydrological monitoring systems and numerical simulations. The reasonable placement and number of monitoring sections in a hydrological system are crucial for balancing monitoring accuracy and construction costs across the entire open channel. Numerical simulation accuracy and reliability depend on clear boundary conditions, precise Manning roughness coefficients, and other key parameters. However, these parameters can vary over time and are often difficult to determine in practical applications. Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide an effective solution to these challenges. This study develops a PINN model to predict the hydraulic characteristics of unsteady flow in open channels by integrating sparse hydrological data with physical laws. The study also examines how the number and placement of monitoring sections affect the accuracy of hydraulic predictions for the entire channel. Results demonstrate that PINNs can achieve high-precision hydraulic predictions along the channel using data from only three optimally placed monitoring sections, with average relative L2 errors below 0.5%. PINNs exhibit strong generalization across diverse boundary conditions, accurately predicting complex flow scenarios and demonstrating significantly higher noise resistance compared to traditional methods. Even with Gaussian noise levels of 10%, PINN predictions maintain relative L2 errors within 3%. Furthermore, PINNs show substantial potential for inverting key parameters such as the Manning roughness coefficient. PINNs offer an efficient and rapid approach to hydraulic predictions for long-distance water conveyance projects, aiding in the design and optimization of monitoring systems while minimizing the number of sensors, equipment, and costs.

How to cite: Feng, J., Li, Z., Mu, T., Li, X., Li, P., and Qian, S.: Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Hydraulic Monitoring in Water Diversion Projects with Limited Cross-Section Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11123, 2025.

EGU25-12814 | Posters on site | HS3.7

Hydrodiversity: A Concept to Understanding and Preserving River System Resilience 

Petteri Alho, Hannu Marttila, and Ville Kankare

Hydrodiversity, an emerging scientific concept, represents the variability and diversity of water-related systems, processes, and resources. It encompasses hydrological features such as flow regimes, water levels, and groundwater interactions, and interacts dynamically with geo- and biodiversity. Despite its significance in maintaining ecosystem resilience, hydrodiversity remains underexplored, with no standardized definition or comprehensive framework for measurement.

In river systems, particularly in transition zones (riparian, littoral, and hyporheic areas), hydrodiversity plays a vital role in regulating connectivity, enhancing water and sediment transport, and supporting biodiversity. These zones act as ecological hotspots, influenced by seasonal hydrological processes like snowmelt-driven flooding and ice cover. However, climate change and anthropogenic pressures, such as land use changes and water management, threaten hydrodiversity, leading to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss.

Advancements in geospatial technologies, including multispectral lidar, unmanned surface vehicles, and hydrological modelling, provide new opportunities to quantify hydrodiversity. These tools enable precise mapping of water pathways, sediment transport, and habitat dynamics, offering insights into the interactions between geo-, bio-, and hydrodiversity. Coupled surface-groundwater models further enhance the understanding of hydrodiversity’s temporal and spatial variability.

We aim to establish a working definition of hydrodiversity and develop methodologies for its quantification. By leveraging cutting-edge technologies and interdisciplinary approaches, we seek to bridge knowledge gaps, support sustainable river management, and align with EU initiatives such as the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Nature Restoration Law.

Hydrodiversity research has the potential to transform our understanding of ecosystem processes, providing critical tools for predicting and mitigating the impacts of geomorphological changes in river systems. It highlights the importance of integrating geo-, bio-, and hydrodiversity for the preservation and restoration of river systems in a changing world.

How to cite: Alho, P., Marttila, H., and Kankare, V.: Hydrodiversity: A Concept to Understanding and Preserving River System Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12814, 2025.

EGU25-15018 | ECS | Orals | HS3.7

River-System Digital Twin for Flood Hazard Mapping 

Kapu Shravani and Roshan Srivastav

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters, leading to widespread damage to infrastructure, loss of life, and major disruptions to urban economies. Rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage systems, and the rising frequency of extreme rainfall events are among the main drivers of flooding. The vulnerabilities of urban systems to flooding necessitate an integrated, simulation-based approach to analyse and compare various flood conditions, fostering proactive flood risk management.

This study aims at developing a River-System Digital Twin (DT) framework for flood hazard mapping and risk reduction. The proposed DT combines advanced hydrodynamic modelling, geospatial analysis, and 3D city modelling to accurately simulate flood scenarios. High-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), river cross-section data, historical and projected land use and land cover (LULC) maps, and rainfall data for various return periods (e.g., 25, 50, and 100 years) are among the datasets that are used. These datasets are incorporated into a geospatial framework that facilitates both scenario-based analysis and simulation.

The methodology involves building a 3D City Information Model (CIM) by extracting building and vegetation parcels from satellite imagery and using procedural modelling techniques in CityEngine software. This CIM is linked dynamically to flood inundation results obtained from 2D hydrodynamic simulation models. The results obtained from the DT, which include spatially dispersed water depths, flow velocities, and hazard intensity zones, can elucidate the possible effects of flooding on urban infrastructure, such as buildings in flood-prone areas and transit networks.

Preliminary results of the study, conducted in the Adyar River Basin in Chennai, India, indicate that the Digital Twin (DT) effectively captures the geographical variation in inundation patterns across different rainfall scenarios Thus, by integrating 3D City Information Models (CIM) with hydrodynamic simulations for an urban system, the study aims to create a powerful tool for predicting, visualizing, and planning to mitigate the potential impacts of flooding on urban infrastructure and communities.

How to cite: Shravani, K. and Srivastav, R.: River-System Digital Twin for Flood Hazard Mapping, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15018, 2025.

Rivers serve as primary conveyors of sediment, continuously reshaping landscapes through fluvial dynamics where hydroclimatic conditions play crucial role in governing the seasonality and magnitude of sediment transport, sediment connectivity and morphological adjustment. In high-latitude regions snowmelt-driven spring floods have traditionally been the major contributor to sediment fluxes. However, climate change is altering the hydroclimatic conditions, leading to hydroclimatic regime shifts with significant implications for sediment transport dynamics, river morphology, and landscape stability. This study assess the impacts of hydroclimatic shifts on sediment transport dynamics in high-latitude rivers, with a focus on seasonality and variability of sediment transport events, and functional sediment connectivity. Using a combination of (1) hydrological, meteorological, and geomorphological time-series data from in situ field measurements, remote sensing, gauging stations, and historical aerial imagery, (2) computational morphodynamic modelling with high spatiotemporal resolution, and (3) Index of Connectivity and sediment budgeting approaches, this research provides new insights into how climate-driven hydrological changes reshape fluvial sediment transport processes. The study focuses on two meandering rivers in boreal and subarctic environments, both expected to experience contrasting hydrological changes due to climate change. The findings provide critical insights into the seasonality, variability, and long-term trends of sediment transport dynamics and morphological responses in river systems transitioning from Nival control to Pluvial control. In addition, the results emphasize the need for continuous monitoring and advanced modelling, such as digital twins, to capture evolving patterns and thresholds of sediment transport. Future research should integrate real-time data with predictive multimethod approaches to improve understanding of short- and long-term morphodynamic feedback.

How to cite: Blåfield, L.: High-latitude fluvial dynamics under hydroclimatic shift – Insights on sediment transport and river morphology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15584, 2025.

EGU25-16787 | Orals | HS3.7

Digital twin developments in  DTC Hydrology Next: reservoirs and flooding 

Albrecht Weerts, Arjen Haag, and Athanasios Tsiokanos

Climate change is affecting the global water, energy and carbon cycle resulting in more severe hydrometeorological events with more societal impact (e.g. precipitation, floods, droughts). Decision support systems for operational or planning purposes are essential to accurately predict and monitor environmental disasters, and optimally manage water and environmental resources now and in the future. The Digital Twin Component (DTC) Hydrology Next project focuses on solutions for monitoring and simulations and forecasting, it requires high-resolution (1 km, 1 hour-day) satellite Earth Observation (EO) data, fully integrated with advanced and spatially distributed modelling systems. Within this scope,  we aim to improve operational reservoir monitoring to obtain reliable estimates  of surface area, water level and volume (i.e. storage). Secondly, we aim to enhance predictions by data assimilation using wflow_sbm (Imhoff et al., 2020, Eilander et al., 2021, van Verseveld et al., 2024, Imhoff et al., 2024). The focus will be on the Rhine catchment focusing on flooding in co-creation with RWS (Dutch ministry of traffic and waterways) and Zambia focusing on reservoir monitoring and flood management working together with WARMA (Water Resources Management Authority). We also consider including  2D hydraulic flood simulations using SFINCS (Leijnse et al., 2021) driven by outputs from wflow_sbm.

 

Eilander, D., van Verseveld, W., Yamazaki, D., Weerts, A., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J. (2021) A hydrography upscaling method for scale invariant parametrization of distributed hydrological models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021.

Imhoff, R. O., van Verseveld, W. J., Osnabrugge, B., and Weerts, A. H. (2020) Scaling Point-Scale (Pedo)transfer Functions to Seamless LargeDomain Parameter Estimates for High-Resolution Distributed Hydrologic Modeling: An Example for the Rhine River, Water Resour. Res., 56, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026807.

Imhoff, Ruben and Buitink, Joost and van Verseveld, Willem and Weerts, Albrecht, A fast high resolution distributed hydrological model for forecasting, climate scenarios and digital twin applications using wflow_sbm. Environmental Modelling & Software,179,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106099, 2024

Leijnse, T. W. B. et al. (2021). Modeling compound flooding in coastal systems using a computationally efficient reduced-physics solver: Including fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind- and wave-driven processes. Coastal Engineering, 163, Article 103796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103796

van Verseveld, W. J., Weerts, A. H., Visser, M., Buitink, J., Imhoff, R. O., Boisgontier, H., Bouaziz, L., Eilander, D., Hegnauer, M., ten Velden, C., and Russell, B.: Wflow_sbm v0.7.3, a spatially distributed hydrological model: from global data to local applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3199–3234, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3199-2024, 2024.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How to cite: Weerts, A., Haag, A., and Tsiokanos, A.: Digital twin developments in  DTC Hydrology Next: reservoirs and flooding, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16787, 2025.

EGU25-16838 | Orals | HS3.7

Assessing the capabilities of the high-density green wavelength LiDAR point cloud and multibeam sonar data to quantify riverbed topography 

Ville Kankare, Harri Kaartinen, Teemu Hakala, Antero Kukko, Blåfield Linnea, Karoliina Lintunen, Elina Kasvi, and Petteri Alho

Riverbed topography in boreal rivers plays a critical role in shaping fluvial and ecological processes. The spatial variation in riverbed elevation and in channel morphology influence for example the flow dynamics, sediment transport and deposition, nutrient cycling, and ecological dynamics providing habitats for variety of aquatic species. Thus, understanding riverbed topography and its change is essential for managing riverine systems and evaluating the impact of climate change and anthropogenic land use. However, quantifying the riverbed topography presents numerous challenges due to the highly dynamic environment (hydraulic conditions, substrate variability and temporal changes) of boreal rivers experiencing extreme events annually (e.g. floods and ice). The advancements in geospatial technologies, such as high-density laser scanning and multibeam sonar mapping, can enable detailed characterization of riverbed characteristics, however there is a lack of understanding the capabilities and limitations of these novel technologies in boreal river conditions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the capabilities of high density underwater and above water green LiDAR and multibeam sonar data to characterize the riverbed and riverbank topography and to develop methodologies to create seamless high detail digital terrain model (DTM) for the whole river channel. Following main research questions (RQs) were investigated: RQ1: What are the limitations in regards spatial resolution and data comprehensiveness between measurements systems? RQ2: Are the riverbed topography characteristics consistent between measurement systems?

Field surveys were conducted in the Oulankajoki River, located in northeastern Finland during autumn 2024. High-density point cloud data was acquired with the following systems: novel underwater LiDAR (ULi, green wavelength, Fraunhofer IPM) mounted into autonomous surface vehicle (Otter, Maritime Robotics), airborne bathymetric LiDAR (ABS, Fraunhofer IPM) mounted into high payload capacity drone and multibeam sonar (Baywei M4) mounted into Otter. In addition, in-situ control point measurements (VRS-GNSS) as well as water level and flow velocity (ADCP) information were collected to be used as auxiliary information in the analysis. To investigate the set RQs, following two analysis steps were conducted: (1) the point cloud density and coverage was assessed through varying grid size from 10 cm to 2 meter to identify the possible limitations in spatial resolution and coverage of the point clouds (RQ1), (2) the differences of the created DTMs were assessed with varying grid size and the following topographical characteristics were evaluated: elevation and slope variation, shape of river cross-sectional and longitudinal profiles, and bed roughness (small-scale variations of the riverbed surface characterized as the standard deviation of elevation or roughness indices).

How to cite: Kankare, V., Kaartinen, H., Hakala, T., Kukko, A., Linnea, B., Lintunen, K., Kasvi, E., and Alho, P.: Assessing the capabilities of the high-density green wavelength LiDAR point cloud and multibeam sonar data to quantify riverbed topography, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16838, 2025.

EGU25-17116 | Posters on site | HS3.7

Digitalization of boreal peatland - digital solutions for identifying key spatiotemporal processes 

Hannu Marttila, Torben R. Christensen, Pertti Ala-Aho, Bjørn Kløve, and Riku Paavola and the Puukkosuo team

Understanding spatiotemporal processes in boreal peatlands is essential to understanding ongoing changes across peatland ecosystem and functions in the northern conditions. We have implemented a new peatland digitalization research program in Puukkosuo fen peatland close to Oulanka Research Station, northeast Finland. Using the latest monitoring technologies, we plan systematically identifying key spatiotemporal processes in this peatland. Our mission is to obtain a detailed understanding of ecohydrological processes coupled with atmospheric gas exchange and peatland ecosystem dynamics on a detailed spatiotemporal scale.  Specifically, our program at the Puukkosuo fen consists of: 1) continuous high-frequency in-situ DOC and ecohydrological monitoring of surface and groundwater, 2) extensive and continuous drone mapping to measure spatial variability in hydrological connectivity, vegetation, and snow accumulation and cover, 3) eddy-covariance and chamber measurements of greenhouse gas exchanges, 4) detailed 3D mapping of peat and underlying geology, and 5) 3D fully integrated modelling approaches allowing future projections. Using this integrated monitoring and modelling approach, we build digital platform for Puukkosuo peatland and pave the way to developing and testing Digital Twin approaches for peatland research and management needs.

How to cite: Marttila, H., Christensen, T. R., Ala-Aho, P., Kløve, B., and Paavola, R. and the Puukkosuo team: Digitalization of boreal peatland - digital solutions for identifying key spatiotemporal processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17116, 2025.

EGU25-17976 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.7

ENOLA – facilitating decision making with a web based water information system 

Paul Knöll, Alexander Strom, Judith M. Confal, and Lucas Pagès

For a thorough understanding our water resources and enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions, it is vital to have a detailed and always up to date knowledge on all components of the water cycle with their interactions. To be able to achieve this, it is important to meet certain prerequisites:

  • having an extensive monitoring of all components of the water cycle with a high degree of automation
  • having the data stored centrally in a homogeneous way, thereby assuring immediate access from all stakeholders to exactly the same dataset
  • being able to quickly and easily visualize and analyze all relevant data in an integrated way

However, current monitoring systems and workflows often do not meet these prerequisites. Commonly, data storage is decentralized and inconsistent while software solutions are fragmented to data management and analysis tools with rigid data exchange formats. As a result, experts and researchers are regularly forced to waste numerous hours on formatting and organizing dataset before being able to approach decision makers. In addition, time is wasted by the necessity of manual data exchange.

To address these challenges, we are developing ENOLA, a web-based water information system. ENOLA is built upon the mentioned prerequisites: It facilitates the monitoring of all components of the water cycle by enabling automated raw data processing and plausibility checks, centralizes data storage in a cloud solution and integrates analysis tools into a user centered interface. The service is designed for collaboratively working on one common dataset, no matter if directly from the field, the office or a conference. Yet, detailed control over access permissions accommodates security needs. It is possible to grant access to your data to externals, as well as including readily available public datasets into your analysis. Standart as well as highly-specialized visualization and analysis tools enable users to quickly assess the system state. Furthermore, data can also be directly be accessed in external software via an API.

Our solution provides a modern and efficient approach to water data monitoring, tailored to meet the needs of research institutes, authorities, water supply companies and environmental consultancies. With ENOLA, organizations can enhance water resource management and decision-making as everyone is immediately on the same page.

How to cite: Knöll, P., Strom, A., Confal, J. M., and Pagès, L.: ENOLA – facilitating decision making with a web based water information system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17976, 2025.

EGU25-18296 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.7

CAMELS-FI: Large scale catchment attributes and hydrometeorological time series in Finland 

Iiro Seppä, Carlos Gonzales Inca, and Petteri Alho

Comprehensive, large sample hydrological datasets, such as CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies), have provided the basis for advances in many aspects of hydrological research in recent years. They can be utilized for several purposes, such as training data driven hydrological models, comparisons between regions dominated by different types of hydrological processes and testing of general validity of hydrological theories. The value of these datasets is in combining multitude of data sources into one, easily accessible and usable, harmonized and high quality package. We present CAMELS-FI, an extensive hydro-meteorological dataset for over 160 catchments, which adheres to the blueprint established by the previous CAMELS-datasets. It combines hydrological and meteorological time series with static catchment attributes in a format that enables comparisons between catchments within the dataset but also between different CAMELS-datasets.

CAMELS-FI provides up to 30 years of daily data, containing variables similar to previous CAMELS-datasets, such as streamflow observations, rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration and snow. In addition, static attributes describing among others the catchment’s soil type, land use and topography are provided. The selected catchments are either not impacted or only marginally impacted by actively managed reservoirs, and have observations from at least five years. We also intend to compare the differences between the hydrological and meteorological signatures in different catchments, as well as compare the regional variability of soil, land cover and topography in order to give deeper insights on the properties of Finnish catchments.

We are planning to use CAMELS-FI to train and test a deep learning neural network to make river flow predictions in unagauged catchments more accurate in Finland.

How to cite: Seppä, I., Gonzales Inca, C., and Alho, P.: CAMELS-FI: Large scale catchment attributes and hydrometeorological time series in Finland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18296, 2025.

EGU25-378 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Adaptive Rating Curve Estimation: AdaptRatin 

Don Rajitha Malshan Athukorala, R. Willem Vervoort, Hadi Mohasel Afshar, and Sally Cripps

Water resource management is impossible without accurate information about stream discharge. However measuring  stream discharge is difficult and therefore stream height measurements, which are easier to obtain, are used as proxies. The conversion of stream height to stream discharge relies on a stage-discharge relationship, which is unique to individual gauging stations and is known as a ‘rating curve’. Accurate assessment  of this  rating curve and accompanying predictions, is essential for effective water resources management. However, the stage-discharge relationship  is often non-stationary, due to erosion or sediment deposition at gauging sites which results from natural processes such as flooding.  As a result, the rating curve needs to be re-calibrated regularly. This paper present an approach to estimate the time varying stage-discharge relationships, which we call  ‘AdaptRatin’. ‘AdaptRatin' first partitions the time-ordered data into an unknown yet finite number of segments, which are locally stationary. Within each segment, the stage-discharge relationship is  modelled non-parametrically by placing a Gaussian process prior over the unknown relationship. We take a Bayesian approach and inference regarding the number and location of locally stationary segments and the corresponding rating curve for each segment  is made via the joint posterior distribution of these quantities. We use  Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to obtain a sample based estimate of this joint posterior. We demonstrate the ability of ‘AdaptRatin’ to successfully capture the changes in the stage-discharge relationship over time and provide reliable estimates of the underlying stage-discharge relationship for each time period for both stationary and non-stationary processes.

How to cite: Athukorala, D. R. M., Vervoort, R. W., Afshar, H. M., and Cripps, S.: Adaptive Rating Curve Estimation: AdaptRatin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-378, 2025.

EGU25-860 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Addressing hydraulic parameter uncertainties for resilient irrigation canal modelling and control 

Rajani Pandey, Jayanth Gobbalipur Ranganath, and Mandalagiri S Mohan Kumar

Efficient water management in irrigation canal systems demands accurate modelling and control of hydraulic dynamics, especially under conditions of uncertainty. This study investigates the effects of variations in hydraulic parameters, particularly the roughness coefficient, on the performance and reliability of canal models. The roughness coefficient, a critical factor influencing flow resistance, often varies along a canal's length and over time, leading to deviations in water level and discharge predictions. Such uncertainties can significantly impact control strategies and overall water management efficiency.
To address these challenges, we utilized a comprehensive canal model structure (Pandey et al., 2024) to develop models for three distinct canal types and analyzed their behavior under extreme operating conditions. The study simulated scenarios with both uniform and non-uniform flow conditions, incorporating a 30% variation in the roughness coefficient to create tuned and untuned configurations. Through detailed simulations, we evaluated the sensitivity of model parameters, including upstream and downstream water areas and delays, and assessed water level deviations arising from parameter uncertainties. Disturbances were introduced at the downstream end to observe the model's robustness across varying operating conditions.
The findings highlight the substantial influence of roughness coefficient variations on model behavior, particularly in terms of discharge accuracy and water level control. Comparative analysis revealed the limitations of untuned models in handling parameter uncertainties, emphasizing the need for adaptive and robust control strategies. Additionally, the results demonstrate the varying impacts of uncertainties across different canal configurations and flow conditions, providing insights into model reliability and the design of resilient irrigation systems.
By addressing parameter uncertainties and evaluating model responses under diverse conditions, this research contributes to the development of adaptive and reliable water management strategies. The outcomes are crucial for advancing sustainable irrigation infrastructure capable of coping with real-world complexities and variabilities.

How to cite: Pandey, R., Gobbalipur Ranganath, J., and Mohan Kumar, M. S.: Addressing hydraulic parameter uncertainties for resilient irrigation canal modelling and control, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-860, 2025.

EGU25-2130 | Orals | HS3.8

Bayesian Inference in Physically-based Vadose Zone Modeling: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly 

Giuseppe Brunetti and Jiří Šimůnek

Mechanistic models, grounded in the Richards and advection-dispersion equations, provide a comprehensive theoretical framework for describing hydrological processes and solute transport in the vadose zone. Due to the limited transferability of laboratory estimates to field conditions, model parameters are often inversely estimated from transient field observations, making calibration an increasingly common practice in vadose zone modeling. The inescapable necessity to include some form of uncertainty assessment has led to the rise of Bayesian inference as the preferred tool for probabilistic calibration. By combining prior information with observations and model predictions, Bayesian inference enables the estimation of parameter posterior distributions, verification of model adequacy, and assessment of the model’s predictive uncertainty (The Good). Nevertheless, its application to mechanistic vadose zone models poses multiple challenges, among which the curse of dimensionality is likely the most critical (The Bad). We demonstrate that the performance of state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods deteriorates even for moderately high-dimensional inverse problems, due to the shrinking of the typical set and improper spatiotemporal discretizations of the vadose zone domain during Monte Carlo runs, with both issues being exacerbated under model misspecification. Although using the gradient of the posterior density could mitigate the former problem, it is often rendered impractical due to numerical challenges. While these issues are generally manageable in low-dimensional settings, Bayesian inference remains hindered when applied in combination with computationally intensive vadose zone models (e.g., 2D/3D models, reactive solute transport) (The Ugly). We demonstrate that surrogate-based models can alleviate this problem, though their training and validation are not without difficulties. Based on these findings, we draw some conclusions and propose possible future directions for uncertainty assessment in physically based vadose zone modeling. 

How to cite: Brunetti, G. and Šimůnek, J.: Bayesian Inference in Physically-based Vadose Zone Modeling: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2130, 2025.

EGU25-2930 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Quantifying Precipitation-Driven Uncertainty in Streamflow Simulations: Application to the Reno River Basin (Italy) 

Omar Cenobio-Cruz and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

Several factors inherently influence the accuracy of hydrological model simulations –including uncertainties in input data, model parameterization, and the (unavoidably simplified) representation of physical processes. Among these, precipitation data used as input play a crucial role as they directly influence the magnitude and timing of streamflows. This study aims to unravel the propagation of uncertainty in hydrological modelling from precipitation data to streamflow simulations. 

To this end, we built a semi-distributed and process-based hydrological model using the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) code of the Reno river basin in Italy. Moreover, we used four gridded precipitation datasets —ERG5 (5 km), CHIRPS (5 km), E-OBS (0.1°), and ERA5 (0.1°)—to calculate mean annual and seasonal precipitation at the sub-basin scale for the period 2001–2022. Despite similarities in seasonal patterns, notable differences emerge during the wet season (especially in winter) and in annual averages, particularly in the small and mountain sub-basin. ERA5 and CHIRPS generally underestimate precipitation during the wet season, while E-OBS exhibits strong correlation with the observed ERG5 dataset.

Observed daily streamflow data were used to calibrate (2001–2010) and validate (2011–2022) the hydrological model. While the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values were overall acceptable, we found larger uncertainties across all sub-basins. In the small and mountainous sub-basin, simulated streamflow shows greater variability and peak flows are often overestimated during the winter. This might be attributed to limitations in gridded datasets, such as the density of gauge stations and the capturing of snow precipitation. These uncertainties also propagate into the dry season, where the variability in simulated streamflow is relatively larger compared to the entire basin for the same season. These findings underscore the significant influence of uncertainty in precipitation data on hydrological simulations, especially in areas with complex orography. We also discuss the importance of addressing such uncertainties in hydrological modeling across different scales.

How to cite: Cenobio-Cruz, O. and Di Baldassarre, G.: Quantifying Precipitation-Driven Uncertainty in Streamflow Simulations: Application to the Reno River Basin (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2930, 2025.

EGU25-6395 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Data Assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter using Integrated Subsurface Flow Models 

Bastian Waldowski and Insa Neuweiler

Reliable estimates of the water availability and fluxes within the vadose zone and groundwater are important for numerous applications. Integrated numerical subsurface flow models can give comprehensive estimates of states and fluxes within both compartments (vadose zone and groundwater), accounting for two-way feedbacks between them. However, those estimates are highly uncertain. Using data assimilation (DA), one can reduce the forecast uncertainty of the numerical model by utilizing information obtained from measurements. The numerical model state is updated, determining its most likely value, given a certain observation. Despite what might be intuitively assumed, it is not necessarily the case in DA with integrated subsurface flow models that assimilating observations from one compartment improves estimates in the other one. In fact, updates often need to be limited to the respective compartment to avoid deteriorations by the DA due to spurious covariances. Considering the core idea of integrated modeling, there are incentives to work out strategies to i.) mitigate such deteriorations and ii.) utilize interactions between the subsurface compartments more extensively when conducting DA with such models.

We test DA strategies using the ensemble Kalman Filter, which is a common choice for data assimilation with subsurface flow models. We extract measurements from a numerical reference model that exhibits heterogeneous soil hydraulic parameter fields. We acknowledge that such heterogeneous structures are commonly not known in real catchments, so we use homogenized soil hydraulic parameters in the ensemble (forecast model). We conduct the experiments on the plot/hillslope scale but consider spatial averages of the estimates for transferability to larger spatial scales. The analyzed variables are the soil moisture near the land surface, the soil moisture within the root zone, groundwater recharge, and the groundwater table height. They are all highly relevant for applications and give a comprehensive overview of the whole subsurface.

Both soil moisture and groundwater table assimilation consistently improve estimates in their respective compartment but sometimes deteriorate estimates in the other compartment. We find both bias correction and vertical localization to be suitable measures to mitigate the deterioration of groundwater table height predictions by soil moisture assimilation. Estimates of groundwater recharge are generally deteriorated by the updates of DA since DA introduces artificial balancing fluxes between the compartments. Still, recharge estimates can be improved in a simulation without DA, which uses the states and soil hydraulic parameters estimated by DA. We find that applying information from the groundwater observations to both the groundwater and the deep vadose zone can dampen the artificial balancing fluxes between the compartments, which leads to improved estimates of the groundwater table height. Multivariate DA of both soil moisture and groundwater leads to similarly good estimates as univariate DA near the respective observations and better estimates between the observations (i.e., within the root zone).

How to cite: Waldowski, B. and Neuweiler, I.: Data Assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman Filter using Integrated Subsurface Flow Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6395, 2025.

EGU25-7128 | ECS | Orals | HS3.8

Mitigating uncertainty in hydrogeological modeling by integrating time-lapse gravity data 

Nazanin Mohammadi, Hamzeh Mohammadigheymasi, and Landon J.S. Halloran

Hydrogeological modeling is critical in effective water management, particularly in response to increasing water demands and climate variability. However, it is subject to significant uncertainty, especially in hydrological data-scarce regions such as mountainous areas. Reducing parameter and prediction uncertainty and efficiently quantifying and analyzing uncertainty are essential for optimizing water resource management. Time-lapse gravity (TLG) is an emerging hydrogeophysical technique that provides spatially-integrative information on water storage changes. It is a promising, non-invasive solution for filling hydrological data gaps, yet efficient assimilation into hydrogeological models has not yet been achieved.

To help address these challenges, we have developed a numerical framework for the coupled assimilation of TLG and traditional hydro(geo)logical data into groundwater models. The open-source, user-friendly python tool integrates coupled groundwater-gravity forward modelling and powerful inverse modeling procedures. It implements a highly accurate and computationally efficient forward 3-D gravity model. The framework accommodates varying levels of hydrological model complexity, as developed in FloPy (a python wrapper for MODFLOW-based models). Moreover, by integrating PyEMU (a python wrapper for PEST++), the framework employs First-Order, Second-Moment (FOSM)- based techniques, offering an efficient approach for estimating uncertainty. Our tool facilitates the assimilation of TLG data to constrain parameters, make predictions, and perform uncertainty analyses. Finally, we employ our framework to test the impacts of including TLG data in groundwater models. Our results show that TLG data can significantly reduce parameter and prediction uncertainty, as well as computational time.

How to cite: Mohammadi, N., Mohammadigheymasi, H., and J.S. Halloran, L.: Mitigating uncertainty in hydrogeological modeling by integrating time-lapse gravity data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7128, 2025.

EGU25-7347 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

PAGOS: A New Python Library for Fast Implementation of (Tracer-Based) Hydrological Models 

Stanley Scott, Chiara Hubner, Yannis Arck, and Werner Aeschbach

      In order to make generalised, quantitative statements and predictions about hydrological systems, numerically-estimated mathematical parameterisations are essential. Few-parameter models, optimised using measurements of physical/chemical tracers, are ubiquitous in the hydrological sciences. Examples include groundwater noble gas paleothermometry, determination of groundwater pollution sources from toluene measurements and determination of water mass fractions/transformation processes using hydrographic variables and gas/mineral solute concentrations. All of these applications involve minimising a cost function against a small (~10 or fewer) set of tracer observations for each sample. However, the computational implementation of any new tracer exchange model is time-consuming and often involves many redundant steps: a programmatically-represented mathematical model often must be retroactively suited to previous code, not necessarily written by the same person. With increasing project complexity, even small editions to a model may necessitate many changes propagating throughout a program, costing the programmer time and more easily introducing errors. With time-pressure and greater emphasis on the scientific results of a project rather than the code used to obtain them, accessibility and readability of software (i.e. its FAIRness) suffers.

      We have developed PAGOS (Python Analysis of Groundwater and Ocean Samples), a Python package which serves to streamline the development and testing of hydrological models, reducing the “scientist-side” time and effort required while also providing an environment conducive to highly accessible code development. Any hydrographic variable/tracer-based model representable as a function in Python can be quickly implemented in as few as 3 lines of code, whereafter it can immediately be forward-run with known parameters, or those parameters can be estimated by inverse-modelling against a user-provided dataset. PAGOS also automatically handles units, sparing the user the task of writing and re-writing methods to account for different units, and avoiding unit-conversion errors (to which hydrological investigations are particularly prone). A plotting subroutine is also provided by the package.

      The case study for which PAGOS was initially developed is an investigation of surface gas exchange processes in the Arctic Ocean, parameterising new models with respect to noble gas measurements. Additionally, parameter estimates for selected models in groundwater and ocean sciences literature have been reproduced by PAGOS. These applications all use 3–5 noble gas tracers, but any number of tracers of any kind may be employed by the user.

      Collaborative extension of PAGOS’s scope to more areas in hydrology is encouraged through a public GitHub repository (https://github.com/TeamPAGOS/PAGOS).

How to cite: Scott, S., Hubner, C., Arck, Y., and Aeschbach, W.: PAGOS: A New Python Library for Fast Implementation of (Tracer-Based) Hydrological Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7347, 2025.

EGU25-9980 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Where and What to Sample Next? Bayesian Data-Worth Analysis for Regional Groundwater Models Using Multilevel GLUE 

Max Gustav Rudolph, Thomas Wöhling, Thorsten Wagener, and Andreas Hartmann

Highly parameterized numerical models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport play a central role in water resources management. Quantifying and analysing uncertainties associated with such models is a key challenge for decision-making, especially under the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, an important question often being overlooked in groundwater model applications is where the next observation point should be located and which state variable should be observed in order to reduce (predictive) uncertainty. We utilize the recently introduced Multilevel Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology (MLGLUE; DOI: 10.1029/2024WR037735) to perform Bayesian inversion, accelerated by exploiting different spatial model resolutions. For a given model we consider two scenarios; in one scenario we utilize all available state observations while we remove environmental tracer observations from the dataset in a second scenario. We analyse the intrinsic data-worth of environmental tracer observations with respect to simulation uncertainty, especially regarding the estimates of quantities of interest derived from model outputs. Besides simulated observation equivalents we let the computational model also return potential future observations during inversion. We then use measures from information theory to select potential future observations which will result in the most substantial reduction of uncertainty regarding quantities of interest in both scenarios. We apply the combined methodology to a synthetic example as well as a previously developed steady-state regional groundwater flow and transport model. Our results demonstrate that the worth of environmental tracer observations is substantial to reduce model output uncertainty and to increase model accuracy. We show that future environmental tracer observations are especially relevant to better constrain estimates of quantities of interest when sampled at informative locations. The approach promises to improve the capabilities of groundwater models used for decision support and water resources management.

How to cite: Rudolph, M. G., Wöhling, T., Wagener, T., and Hartmann, A.: Where and What to Sample Next? Bayesian Data-Worth Analysis for Regional Groundwater Models Using Multilevel GLUE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9980, 2025.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a crucial tool for identifying influential parameters in hydrologic models. GSA methods can guide the selection of calibration parameters, thereby reducing the dimensionality of the parameter space by discarding less influential parameters. This study will explore the use of Random Forest as a GSA method. In particular, feature importance in Random Forest can be interpreted as sensitivity measures of input parameters once the regression task is performed with respect to the output variable of interest. This work will be focused on a large-sample application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model across Europe. A substantial number of Monte Carlo simulations will be carried out for each catchment in order to explore the parameter space and generate a large dataset for the Random Forest regression. Parameters sensitivities will be quantified for the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of daily streamflow based on feature importance, and results will be compared against traditional GSA techniques such as the Standardized Regression Coefficients (SRC) and the Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) methods.

Acknowledgments: This study has been funded by a Humboldt Research Fellowship for Postdoctoral Researchers from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

How to cite: Yeste, P. and Bronstert, A.: On the use of Random Forest as a Global Sensitivity Analysis method: a large-sample application across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10333, 2025.

Numerical groundwater models are essential tools for simulating and understanding subsurface hydrological processes, supporting water resource management and environmental decision-making. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and history matching (HM) are critical methods for evaluating the influence of uncertain model parameters and calibrating models to observed data. However, applying these methods to transient, computationally expensive, large-scale groundwater models presents significant challenges.

A key obstacle arises from the requirement to adapt initial conditions for every model input parameter set during GSA and HM. Unlike steady-state models, transient groundwater systems often lack equilibrium, requiring initialization that reflects the dynamic nature of the system. Traditional approaches, such as performing a warmup simulation for each parameter set, ensure accurate initialization but are computationally infeasible for highly parameterized models.

To address this limitation, we propose a novel method to approximate suitable initial conditions for each parameter set without the need for costly warmup simulations. Our approach utilizes the fact that, after a system-specific relaxation time, the simulation becomes independent of the initial condition. Using a toy model as a test case, we demonstrate that the approximated initial conditions are sufficiently accurate for practical applications, with minimal impact on the outcomes of GSA and HM. The computational savings achieved through this method are substantial, making it particularly advantageous for large-scale systems with many parameters.

We also provide an analysis of the trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency and show that the inaccuracy introduced by the approximation is negligible. Finally, we outline a roadmap for extending this method to real-world groundwater models, addressing the computational barriers that may currently limit the application of GSA and HM in transient systems.

How to cite: Jupe, T. and Class, H.: Efficient Approximation of Initial Conditions for Global Sensitivity Analysis and History Matching of Transient Numerical Groundwater Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11364, 2025.

EGU25-12069 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Localized subsurface water flux estimation by simplified hydraulic tomography: Synthetic test case and outlook for field application 

Konstantin Drach, Carsten Leven, and Olaf A. Cirpka

Floodplain aquifers receive substantial water input from adjacent hillslopes, most likely concentrated in hillslope hollows. Other localized inputs are expected from tributary valleys and along surface-water bodies. However, quantifying and localizing subsurface water fluxes is inherently difficult. A key requirement for flux estimation is the knowledge of the hydraulic-conductivity distribution at the scale of interest. Conventional hydrogeological investigation techniques, such as pumping and slug tests, may fail in the presence of heterogeneity and complex structural boundaries. While advanced 2-D and 3-D hydraulic tomography may resolve small-scale heterogeneity, it is typically limited to small spatial scales and require complex and costly field installations. We choose a simplified tomographic approach using a limited number of pumping and observation wells targeting spatial ranges in the order of 100 m. To infer the spatially variable hydraulic-conductivity field with its uncertainty, we apply an iterative ensemble smoother and pilot-point parameterization for dimensionality reduction. Subsequently the resulting conditional realizations of the hydraulic-conductivity field are used to calculate water fluxes applying mean hydraulic gradients. We test the approach by a synthetic scenario mimicking the conditions in a hillslope hollow connected to a floodplain aquifer. We aim at applying the approach as field method in a local floodplain aquifer in Southwest Germany near the city of Tübingen to quantify the lateral inflow from an adjacent hillslope hollow.

How to cite: Drach, K., Leven, C., and Cirpka, O. A.: Localized subsurface water flux estimation by simplified hydraulic tomography: Synthetic test case and outlook for field application, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12069, 2025.

EGU25-14758 | Orals | HS3.8 | Highlight

Using information theory to understand process controls in Global Water Models 

Thorsten Wagener, Maximilia-Manuel Serra Lasierra, Karoline Wiesner, Marina Höhne, Julia Herbinger, Ting Tang, and Yoshihide Wada

Global Water Models (GWMs) are essential for understanding and projecting global hydrological fluxes under changing climate conditions, yet their outputs often diverge from each other, limiting their utility for robust decision-making. We can evaluate GWM using functional relationships that capture the spatial co-variability of over 100 forcing variables, model parameters and key output variables (such as groundwater recharge). Uncovering and identifying relationships and interactions embedded in the high-dimensional and complex input-output datasets created by these simulation models requires measures of dependence that can capture a wide range of functional behaviors. In this study, we test the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC), an information theory based, non-parametric measure of dependence, to systematically explore and characterize input-output relationships in the Community Water Model (CWatM) forced with ISIMIP3a observed climate data. Our results demonstrate that MIC not only recovers expected hydrological controls but also reveals previously unnoticed functional relationships that Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients would have overlooked. Additional analysis steps enable us to isolate key explanatory factors from the model’s internal structure and domain-specific factors. This information theory based approach provides a systematic methodology to improve model diagnostic capabilities, guide targeted research directions, and ultimately strengthen the credibility and interpretability of large-scale hydrological simulations.

How to cite: Wagener, T., Serra Lasierra, M.-M., Wiesner, K., Höhne, M., Herbinger, J., Tang, T., and Wada, Y.: Using information theory to understand process controls in Global Water Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14758, 2025.

Information-theoretical evaluation of probabilistic hydrological forecasts has several advantages. Firstly, forecasts in terms of probability put the onus for correct expression of uncertainty on the forecaster, as opposed to the recipient of the forecast. Secondly, formulating the evaluation of forecast quality in terms of information-measures enables consistency with the principle of minimum description length. 

When applying the information-theoretical evaluation framework to forecasts of mixed-type variables, such as streamflow in rivers with intermittent flow regimes, subjectivity is introduced through the choice of units in which streamflow is measured. This can lead to preference reversals between forecasts when using certain information measures.  

At the hand of some examples, we explore the origins of this subjectivity, possible interpretations, as well as avenues for its resolution. Among others, the role of observation uncertainty and the physical meaning of zero flow are discussed. 

How to cite: Weijs, S.: Subjectivity in evaluation of forecasts for intermittent streamflow - an information-theoretical perpective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15081, 2025.

The covariance function is a powerful tool for characterizing random processes and is fully parameterized by (anisotropic) correlation lengths and angles of rotation. While correlation lengths have been successfully estimated, the periodicity of rotation has posed challenges in determining unique covariance function parameterizations. Good prior knowledge of the covariance function has been shown to greatly improve the results of parameter inference methods. However, knowledge of the full anisotropy of the covariance function is difficult to obtain. Therefore, we propose an extension to the pilot point ensemble Kalman filter (PPEnKF) that is capable of estimating the full anisotropy of the covariance function based on attainable, initially random knowledge. We address the periodicity of rotation by incorporating the unique elements of the covariance transformation matrix into the PPEnKF. Based on the estimates of the covariance function, we further modify the filter by generating conditional field realizations in each assimilation step, increasing the inherent ensemble variance and preventing filter inbreeding. We demonstrate the methodology by estimating the covariance function of a field of hydraulic conductivity in a synthetic study of a 2D groundwater model. The full anisotropy of the covariance function and the hydraulic conductivity at pilot points are estimated via the assimilation of hydraulic head data. The success of this method depends more on the configuration of pilot points than on the quality of prior knowledge, as ensembles initialized with faulty random knowledge successfully estimated the correct parameterization of the covariance function, as well as the corresponding parameter values at the pilot points. The resulting parameter fields enabled accurate predictions of groundwater head levels during a verification period, with normalized root mean square errors reduced by 77 - 97 % compared to ensembles excluded from the parameter update. The methodology presented in this study mitigates the importance of informative prior knowledge of the covariance function in parameter inference methods, showcasing the effectiveness of random processes in achieving robust parameter field estimations, especially in highly anisotropic settings.

How to cite: Geiger, J., Finkel, M., and Cirpka, O.: Estimating the Full Anisotropy of the Covariance Function in Geostatistical Inversion using the Pilot-Point Ensemble Kalman Filter, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16262, 2025.

EGU25-16292 | Orals | HS3.8

Iterative Ensemble Calibration of WRF-Hydro for Improved Hydrological Modeling 

Ankita Pradhan, Daniel Wright, Kaidi Peng, Michael Fienen, and G. Aaron Alexander

Hydrological studies often depend on model simulations to analyze flood occurrences and frequency. A major challenge in this domain is quantifying and reducing uncertainty in simulations, particularly when dealing with complex models like WRF-Hydro, which involve extensive parameterization. To address this, we present a novel parameter estimation approach using Iterative Ensemble Smoothers (iES). While iES has been widely applied in calibrating parameters for general circulation models and groundwater models, its potential in improving surface water predictions remains underexplored. This study leverages iES to efficiently estimate and refine parameters, generating ensembles of equally plausible parameter sets. These ensembles yield streamflow predictions that incorporate parameter uncertainty. Unlike traditional sequential simulation methods, iES reduces computational costs by running ensembles of simulations (e.g., 100 members) parallelly refining the parameter space iteratively. Typically, only 3–4 iterations are sufficient to achieve convergence, resulting in reliable parameter sets with low wall clock times. We applied the iES-based calibration framework to the Carson River watershed in the mountainous western United States, focusing on 16 parameters spanning the land surface model, terrain routing, and channel routing components of WRF-Hydro. These parameters capture soil properties, runoff characteristics, groundwater dynamics, vegetation attributes, and snow processes. By refining these parameters, our approach improved the simulation of high-flow events, particularly by better representing snowmelt dynamics critical for flood modeling. Enhanced simulation of snow accumulation and melt processes led to more accurate streamflow predictions, providing valuable insights for flood risk management and water resource planning in snow-dominated regions. Specifically, the iES algorithm demonstrated convergence by the third iteration, with the KGE value improving from 0 in the initial run to 0.41 in the first iteration, 0.65 in the second, and 0.71 in the third Our results highlight significant advancements in computational efficiency, parameter precision, and uncertainty quantification.

How to cite: Pradhan, A., Wright, D., Peng, K., Fienen, M., and Alexander, G. A.: Iterative Ensemble Calibration of WRF-Hydro for Improved Hydrological Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16292, 2025.

EGU25-16883 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Spatial sensitivity of aquitard hydraulic parameters derived from pumping tests in multi-aquifer systems 

Martijn van Leer, Willem Jan Zaadnoordijk, Alraune Zech, Jasper Griffioen, and Marc Bierkens

Estimates of aquitard hydraulic parameters are typically derived from pumping test drawdowns in aquifers. Analytical solutions for leaky aquifers and semi-analytical solutions for multiple aquifer systems assume homogeneity of hydraulic parameters in both aquifers and aquitards. In settings where the hydraulic parameters cannot be assumed to be homogeneous, the parameters estimated with these methods are generally considered spatial averages. In this study, we investigate the spatial sensitivity of aquitard hydraulic properties at various observation times in both the pumped and overlying aquifers using a synthetic pumping test model. Results show that the area around both the observation and pumping wells exhibits the highest sensitivity in both the overlying and pumped aquifers. A parabolic shape in sensitivity is observed between the wells. Over time, the sensitive area shifts from an approximate line between the wells to an expanding ellipse. However, if the transmissivity of the overlying aquifer is lower than that of the pumped aquifer, the observation in the overlying aquifer becomes increasingly sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity near the observation well. Conversely, if the transmissivity of the pumped aquifer is lower than that of the overlying aquifer, the sensitivity shifts towards the area close to the extraction well. Understanding these sensitivity patterns is essential for translating pumping test results into parameters for regional groundwater flow models and improving pumping test design.

How to cite: van Leer, M., Zaadnoordijk, W. J., Zech, A., Griffioen, J., and Bierkens, M.: Spatial sensitivity of aquitard hydraulic parameters derived from pumping tests in multi-aquifer systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16883, 2025.

EGU25-18346 | Orals | HS3.8

Regularized calibration of conceptual hydrological models  

Saket Pande, Mehdi Moayeri, and Mario Ponce-Pacheco

This paper applies recent results of risk bounds for time series forecasting to identify optimal complexity of conceptual models and complexity regularised streamflow predictions based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis generalization theory. Earlier reported similar study with SAC-SMA and SIXPAR conceptual models but on two large regions from CAMELS data set is extended to more basins in CONUS to demonstrate the effect of regularizing hydrological model calibration on streamflow prediction over unseen data. SAC-SMA and SIXPAR (conceptual simplification of SAC-SMA) are used as model examples. Results show that the effect of complexity regularization more visible on SIXPAR than SAC-SMA. Results further suggest that when basins itself are complex, regularizing complexity of models does not help and depends on hydrological characteristics of the basins. The benefits of complexity regularization are more evident when assessed based on variance based performance metrices such as correlation coefficient and the slope of observed vs predicted fit than bias and mean absolute error metrices. The paper therefore offers a novel, though computationally intense, method to calibrate conceptual models while controlling for their model complexity.

How to cite: Pande, S., Moayeri, M., and Ponce-Pacheco, M.: Regularized calibration of conceptual hydrological models , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18346, 2025.

EGU25-20200 | ECS | Posters on site | HS3.8

Improved strategies to improve water allocation in a Mediterranean watershed. 

Ioulia Koroptsenko, Emmanouil Varouchakis, George Karatzas, Irini Vozinaki, and Antonis Lyronis

Globally, the management of water resources is facing increasing challenges due to population growth, economic expansion, and climate change. These factors emphasize the need for sustainable and improved strategies for the allocation system. The current study uses the Water Assessment and Planning System, a decision model, for the Keritis basin, which is a vital water resource for the city of Chania and mainly provides water for domestic and agricultural use. The model incorporates hydrological and meteorological data to simulate surface runoff. Comparisons are made with previous studies on runoff in the area and with literature that has used other hydrological models to simulate other processes. Climate projections will also be incorporated into the model to assess projected precipitation patterns for the coming decades. Part of this work is also to simulate how the planned infrastructure, in particular two dams in a nearby catchment, can help improve water distribution and, most importantly, meet the large demands of agriculture.

This work was supported by OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.

How to cite: Koroptsenko, I., Varouchakis, E., Karatzas, G., Vozinaki, I., and Lyronis, A.: Improved strategies to improve water allocation in a Mediterranean watershed., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20200, 2025.

HS4 – Hydrological forecasting

EGU25-1214 | Orals | HS4.2

Meteorological drought variability in the Upper Vistula Basin in period 1961-2022 

Andrzej Wałęga, Agnieszka Wałęga, Alessandra De Marco, and Tommaso Caloiero

Drought is a natural phenomenon affecting many aspects of human activity, such as water scarcity, food production, agriculture, industry, and ecological conditions. For decades, drought has caused significant financial losses in Europe and worldwide. In the Polish Carpathians, periods with rainwater deficits and an increasing frequency of dry months—especially in the cold half of the year—have been observed. However, there are limited studies on the spatial and temporal variability of meteorological drought in this area.

The aim of this study is to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), in the heterogeneous region of the Polish Carpathians and the highland areas in East-Central Europe, based on long-term precipitation data. Monthly precipitation data from 30 rainfall stations, collected between 1961 and 2022, were analyzed. The SPI as an indicator of meteorological drought for 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month periods was calculated. The run theory was applied to identify the different drought events and to evaluate various drought characteristics: the number of drought events (N), the average drought duration (ADD), the average drought severity (ADS), and the average drought intensity (ADI).

As a result, N decreases with the increase of the time scale. In fact, a median of 59 and 15 events have been observed for the 3- and the 48-month SPI, respectively. The statistics of the ADD show an opposite behavior than N, with the lowest values corresponding to the 3-month SPI (median nearly 2 months) and the highest to the 48-month SPI (median of 8.8 months). Moreover, the variability in ADD increases with longer time aggregations. A similar behavior to ADD has been detected for the ADS at different temporal scales, with an average severity of 12.3 that occurred for the 48-month SPI. Finally, the ADI slightly decreases with the increase of the time scale, with the highest values observed for the 3-month SPI (1.48), and the lowest for the 48-month SPI (1.21).

The spatial distribution of the drought characteristics in the Upper Vistula Basin allows us to  identify the areas that could also face water stress conditions in the future, and which would thus require drought monitoring and adequate adaptation strategies. In particular, the northwestern part of the region, where soils have lower water-holding capacity and agriculture is more intensive than in the south, is particularly sensitive to drought.

How to cite: Wałęga, A., Wałęga, A., De Marco, A., and Caloiero, T.: Meteorological drought variability in the Upper Vistula Basin in period 1961-2022, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1214, 2025.

EGU25-1742 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Flash droughts in the Dry Corridor of Central America: A case study in Nicaragua 

Ingrid Ubeda-Trujillo, Micha Werner, Claudia Bertini, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Graham Jewitt

Flash droughts are increasingly impacting the Dry Corridor of Central America, particularly in regions dominated by rainfed agriculture, further exacerbating the pressures already faced by agriculture, ecosystems, and water resources management. These phenomena are distinct from the generally accepted concept of droughts due to their rapid intensification, often lasting for three weeks or more. Understanding how flash droughts occur and evolve, along with their impacts, is closely linked to the geographical and socioeconomic contexts of affected areas. This understanding is essential for effective monitoring and represents a critical component of drought management. This study examines the spatial and temporal characteristics of flash droughts in Nicaragua, providing a representative case for understanding regional patterns. The analysis utilizes evaporation and potential evaporation variables derived from remote sensing data. Key metrics—including spatial extent, frequency, duration, and severity of flash drought events—were identified and analyzed. The findings provide valuable insights into the dynamics of flash droughts in dry regions, contributing to efforts aimed at strengthening the resilience of socioeconomically and environmentally vulnerable communities.

How to cite: Ubeda-Trujillo, I., Werner, M., Bertini, C., Coenders-Gerrits, M., and Jewitt, G.: Flash droughts in the Dry Corridor of Central America: A case study in Nicaragua, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1742, 2025.

EGU25-1779 | Orals | HS4.2

Climate-Resilient Water Management for Sub-Arctic Agriculture: Insights from Spatiotemporal modeling 

Alireza Gohari, Anandharuban Panchanathan, Mojtaba Naghdyzadegan Jahromi, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

Climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and increased weather extremes, poses risks to food security and water supply. Warmer temperatures allow northern regions to extend agricultural activities and cultivate alternative crops that necessitate longer growing seasons. However, the increase in hydrological extremes, such as droughts and heatwaves, poses a significant risk to agricultural productivity in northern Europe, especially in regions with no access to irrigation networks. This highlights the urgent need for implementing climate-resilient agricultural water management strategies such as controlled drainage and sub-irrigation, which offer potential benefits for productivity and nutrient runoff reduction. This study aims to assess hydrological deficits and excesses in the growing season across a sub-Arctic region by analyzing daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data. The model leverages gridded precipitation and evapotranspiration datasets with 1km resolution and crop coefficients to simulate daily water storage dynamics. Developing a computational model, we analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of maximum deficit and excess water from 1981 to 2023. Findings from the study provide valuable insights and a basis for calculating the water reservoir capacity to overcome the summer drought posed by climate change in agriculture. The model's results will be applied to developing flexible operation system support to manage (automate) tank-drainage systems during flash drought or heavy precipitation conditions.  

How to cite: Gohari, A., Panchanathan, A., Naghdyzadegan Jahromi, M., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Climate-Resilient Water Management for Sub-Arctic Agriculture: Insights from Spatiotemporal modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1779, 2025.

EGU25-2062 | Orals | HS4.2

Drought and water resource assessment at the national level in Italy from 1951 to today 

Stefano Mariani, Giovanni Braca, Barbara Lastoria, Robertino Tropeano, Marco Casaioli, Francesca Piva, Giulia Marchetti, and Martina Bussettini

The aim of the work is to present the analysis of droughts, water resource availability and water stress conditions in Italy obtained based on estimates from ISPRA's BIGBANG national hydrological water budget model. Trends and variations on the availability of water resources and on the occurrence, persistence and magnitude of the drought events that have affected Italy from 1951 to today will also be presented in relation to the current and future impacts of the climate change, with an indication of the impacts on the exposed assets, such as people and cultural assets.

Italy, located in the center of the Mediterranean, one of the hotspots of the climate crisis, can only expect an amplified impact of droughts, which, associated with the increase in temperatures, will lead to an ever-decreasing availability of water resources. In recent decades, Italy has been subject to increasingly frequent drought events affecting not only the southern and insular areas, but also the central-northern and continental areas, which have a generally more humid climate. The ISPRA national analyses show, starting from the 1950s, a statistically increasing trend in the percentages of territory subject to extreme drought on an annual scale. The periods in which the extreme drought conditions affected more than 20% of the national territory were 5, namely 1989-1990, 2002, 2012, 2017 and 2022. The first of these periods is part of the "great drought" that hit Italy in the three-year period 1988-1990, the other 4 are all after that period, while no episode of this magnitude was recorded in the preceding period. This increase in extreme drought events is likely due to climate change.

The increase in water crises is therefore attributable to a lower availability of water resources over the years due to a changing climate, with persistent periods of precipitation deficit and high temperatures, with a negative trend, statically significant observed at the national level by means of BIGBANG estimates from 1951 to today. 

The annual national availability of natural water resources in 2022 is estimated at 221.7 mm, equivalent to approximately 67 billion cubic meters, which represents the historical minimum from 1951 to today. This value outlines a reduction of approximately 50% compared to the average annual availability of water resources estimated at 441.9 mm (133.5 billion cubic meters) for the last thirty-year climatological period 1991-2020.

In 2023, the annual value of the renewable water resource is estimated at 372.2 mm, corresponding to 112.4 billion cubic meters, approximately 18% compared to the average annual availability of the long period 1951-2023, resulting from the combined effect of a precipitation deficit and an increase in water volumes of evapotranspiration. The decrease in natural availability of water resources in 2023 was made less severe compared to 2022 by the high volume of precipitation that fell in May, estimated at approximately 49 billion cubic meters, which was, at a national level, more than double the average volume for the same month.

Future projections highlight possible further reductions in water resources.

How to cite: Mariani, S., Braca, G., Lastoria, B., Tropeano, R., Casaioli, M., Piva, F., Marchetti, G., and Bussettini, M.: Drought and water resource assessment at the national level in Italy from 1951 to today, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2062, 2025.

Droughts pose a major global challenge, particularly in Taiwan, where critical industries such as semiconductor manufacturing are significantly impacted. The mountainous terrain, which constitutes 70% of Taiwan, complicates the estimation of Land Surface Temperature (LST) due to surface heterogeneity. Accurate drought estimations necessitate consistent LST retrieval methods. This study employs a Machine Learning (ML)-based normalization method linked to surface variables to enhance LST accuracy. We introduce the Surface Water Availability and Temperature (SWAT), integrating the improved LST, Normalized Difference Latent Heat Index (NDLI), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The SWAT, along with existing indices, was used to assess drought conditions in Taiwan from 2001 to 2023. These results were validated against satellite indicators such as the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). Our findings reveal that the SWAT correlates strongly with the CWSI and NPP, indicating significantly higher sensitivity to drought status compared to existing indices. Additionally, the SWAT demonstrated high temporal consistency with the CWSI and NPP across most regions of Taiwan. Generally, the SWAT, supported by the ML-based LST normalization method, proves to be a robust index for monitoring drought conditions in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Liou, Y.-A. and Thai, M.-T.: Enhancing Drought Monitoring in Taiwan’s Mountainous Terrain Using the Surface Water Availability and Temperature (SWAT), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3056, 2025.

EGU25-3500 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Snow drought propagation and its impacts on streamflow drought in the Alps 

Corentin Chartier-Rescan, Raul Wood, and Manuela I. Brunner

Snow droughts, that is negative anomalies in snow water equivalent, impact society as well as natural ecosystems in winter and influence the hydrological cycle downstream in spring and summer. Thereby, pronounced snow drought conditions can lead to streamflow droughts, i.e., anomalously low discharges, during the following melt season. Under continued global warming, the frequency and intensity of snow droughts are expected to increase. However, we still know little about the rate at which snow droughts propagate to subsequent streamflow droughts, the spatial patterns of such events, or the influence of snow droughts on the occurrence, intensity or duration of subsequent streamflow droughts. To quantify the link between snow and streamflow drought, we developed a snow drought propagation scheme, which dynamically identifies pairs of snow and streamflow droughts from a high-resolution gridded snow product and streamflow observations, and applied it to 207 catchments in Switzerland and Austria. Between 1961 and 2021, we identified 147 propagating snow droughts, and found that 18 % of the snow droughts propagated to a streamflow drought and that 21 % of streamflow droughts during the melt season were preceded by a snow drought. Propagating snow droughts are most common in high-elevation catchments and among the most extreme snow droughts. Streamflow droughts are characterized by higher deficits, longer durations and earlier occurrences when preceded by a snow drought. We identify snow drought deficit as a good predictor for subsequent streamflow drought deficit and duration when the snow drought is intense and occurs in low-elevation catchments. We show that the presence of water resources management increases the chance of snow drought propagation. Finally, we find that the period 1990–2021 is characterized by an increase in the number of propagating snow droughts compared to 1961–1990. In conclusion, we unveil a non-negligible link between snow and streamflow droughts that could help improve early warning systems for spring and summer droughts.

How to cite: Chartier-Rescan, C., Wood, R., and Brunner, M. I.: Snow drought propagation and its impacts on streamflow drought in the Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3500, 2025.

EGU25-3754 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Evaluation of a global multi-sectoral drought hazard monitoring and forecasting system 

Tina Trautmann, Neda Abbasi, Jan Weber, Tinh Vu, Stephan Dietrich, Petra Doell, Harald Kunstmann, Christof Lorenz, and Stefan Siebert

With increasing frequency and severity of drought hazards worldwide, reliable monitoring and forecasting of drought conditions becomes more and more relevant for efficient drought management. In this context, the OUTLAST project provides global monitoring and seasonal forecasting of drought hazard indicators (DHIs) across three sectors, ranging from meteorological and agricultural to hydrological DHIs. In OUTLAST, a consistent framework is developed in which ERA5 (for monitoring) and bias-corrected SEAS5 data (for seasonal forecasts) are used to calculate meteorological DHIs. The same climate data forces the Global Crop Water Model1 and the global hydrological model WaterGAP2 in order to derive agricultural and hydrological DHIs respectively. The global OUTLAST DHIs will be freely available via the WMO’s HydroSOS web portal.

To adequately support drought management and decision-making, it is essential to identify and evaluate the accuracy of OUTLAST DHIs. Therefore, we apply a twofold evaluation procedure: 1) a global evaluation against various observation-based datasets with (nearly) global coverage, and 2) a regional evaluation in collaboration with experts who will potentially use OUTLAST products in their daily work. While the first provides a general assessment of the overall performance, the latter allows evaluation whether actual drought conditions are sufficiently monitored by the global OUTLAST system.

Here, we focus on the global evaluation of DHIs for the historical period 1981-2020 by comprehensively comparing the performance of model-based DHIs from multiple sectors, including (1) the standard precipitation index, (2) the rainfed crop drought hazard indicator, and (3) the empirical percentiles of streamflow, against observation-based data, such as (a) remote sensing-based precipitation, (b) global evapotranspiration data, and (c) observed streamflow of large river basins. By analyzing DHIs from multiple sectors simultaneously, we show the effect of drought - and error- propagation in the hydrological cycle on the ability to capture observed drought conditions by model-based DHIs. Besides, the capability to accurately reproduce historic drought conditions represents the accuracy that users can expect when employing the OUTLAST near-real time monitoring and seasonal forecasts for drought management decisions.

 

---------------------------------------------------

1Siebert, S., & Döll, P. (2010). Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. Journal of Hydrology, 384(3-4), 198-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.031

2Müller Schmied, H., Trautmann, T., Ackermann, S., Cáceres, D., Flörke, M., Gerdener, H., Kynast, E., Peiris, T. A., Schiebener, L., Schumacher, M.  & Döll, P. (2024). The global water resources and use model WaterGAP v2. 2e: description and evaluation of modifications and new features. Geoscientific Model Development, 17(23), 8817-8852. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8817-2024

How to cite: Trautmann, T., Abbasi, N., Weber, J., Vu, T., Dietrich, S., Doell, P., Kunstmann, H., Lorenz, C., and Siebert, S.: Evaluation of a global multi-sectoral drought hazard monitoring and forecasting system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3754, 2025.

EGU25-4231 | Orals | HS4.2

Enhancing the readiness for drought events in the European Alps bridging research and practice 

Mariapina Castelli, Francesco Avanzi, Carlo Carmagnola, Rozalija Cvejić, Markus Disse, Iacopo Ferrario, Hugues François, Michel Isabellon, Alexander Jacob, Tamara Korošec, Ralf Ludwig, Samuel Massart, Claudia Notarnicola, Stefan Schneider, Hervé Stevenin, Stefano Terzi, Ye Tuo, and Wolfgang Wagner

The Alpine water towers are essential for sustaining life and driving the economy across central and southern Europe. This vital resource faces growing pressure from global warming, which is changing precipitation patterns, reducing snow availability and accelerating glacier melt, and from economic growth, which is driving an ever-increasing demand for water. Consequently, significant shifts in water’s spatial and temporal availability are observed, accompanied by a rising frequency and intensity of drought events. In this context, the Interreg Alpine Space project, Alpine DROught Prediction (A-DROP, 2024-2027), aims to enhance the preparedness of the Alpine regions for droughts and foster a sustainable use of water. The project partners, from research to public administrations, collaboratively develop and implement solutions for water management based on science. Embedding the drought monitoring methods and platforms set up in previous EU projects, like the Alpine Drought Observatory (https://ado.eurac.edu/), the ambition of A-DROP is to create 1) an innovative hydrological drought early warning and forecasting tool, not yet available for alpine river basins, that complements the instruments adopted by the regional water authorities, paving the way for a pan-Alpine prediction system, and 2) an open, spatially consistent database of climate and hydrological variables, drought indices, and impacts at an unprecedented level of detail, integrable with local water management systems. In pilot areas, decision-makers and stakeholders in agriculture, hydropower production, and winter tourism exploit the new dataset and the A-DROP prediction tool in real situations. Specifically, pilot 1 focuses on optimizing farm water consumption in Slovenia, pilot 2 develops a climate for ski resorts in France, Italy and Germany, pilot 3 generates an optimized hydropower management tool for a plant in Germany, and pilot 4 creates a drought public dashboard and, concurrently with pilot 5, tests a seasonal hydrological forecast system over two Italian regions. In parallel, A-DROP employs multi-faceted regional hydroclimatic model ensemble simulations to estimate climate change effects on droughts, thus informing decision-making processes, and facilitating risk reduction and adaptation pathways. Tailored information and training sessions support the transition process at the policy and operational levels towards science-based water governance. The active involvement of actors from macro-regional strategies, like EUSALP, and observers from public administrations facilitates the translation of A-DROP outputs into co-designed guidelines for water governance policies.

How to cite: Castelli, M., Avanzi, F., Carmagnola, C., Cvejić, R., Disse, M., Ferrario, I., François, H., Isabellon, M., Jacob, A., Korošec, T., Ludwig, R., Massart, S., Notarnicola, C., Schneider, S., Stevenin, H., Terzi, S., Tuo, Y., and Wagner, W.: Enhancing the readiness for drought events in the European Alps bridging research and practice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4231, 2025.

Climatic drought, characterized by a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures, significantly influences groundwater resources by reducing recharge and increasing abstraction. Interactions between climatic droughts and groundwater systems are complex, because of the varying hydrodynamic properties of aquifers, which influence their responses to surface stresses. Understanding these relationships is crucial for optimizing groundwater resource management and mitigating drought-induced crises. This study investigated the relationships between climatic droughts and groundwater level fluctuations in two climatically different basins in Iran: the semi-arid Mashad Basin (Khorasan Razavi province) and the arid Gowharkuh Basin (Sistan and Baluchestan province). We employed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to represent climatic conditions and the Standardized Water Table Index (SWTI) to show groundwater level fluctuations. Time series analyses were conducted in both time and frequency domains to assess the measure and quality of relationships between climatic conditions and water level variations. In the time domain, we calculated correlation coefficients and lag times between SPI and SWTI, using a modified cross-correlation function (MCCF). This innovative approach allowed for cross-correlation calculations between time series of unequal lengths. Using the Blackman-Tucky method, we computed spectral density, cross-spectrum amplitude, coherency, and phase functions in the frequency domain. Time domain results showed that the correlation coefficient and lag time between climatic variations and groundwater levels were higher in the Gowharkuh Plain (0.9 and 7 years) compared to the Mashhad Plain (0.7 and 5 years), highlighting the influence of interacting factors, including climatic, hydrological, and hydrogeological conditions, as well as human interventions, in shaping these relationships. Frequency domain analysis indicated that low-frequency fluctuations in SPI (long-term droughts) exert the most significant impact on groundwater resources.

How to cite: Naderi, R.: Effects of Climatic Drought on Groundwater Level Based on Time Series Analysis in Time and Frequency Domains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4870, 2025.

Drought is a natural disaster causing the greatest global losses and having the most significant impacts across various sectors. In the Mediterranean region, particularly in the Tensift River Basin, Morocco, drought severely affects water availability, agriculture, and local economies. Despite its importance, traditional monitoring systems often fail to provide timely warnings or accurately quantify and report drought impacts. This study evaluates the performance of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in detecting drought events, focusing on optimizing thresholds and timescales to enhance monitoring accuracy. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, we assessed the correspondence between estimated drought events and reported impacts, achieving AUC values of 78.34% for SPI and 68.32% for SPEI. These results highlight the strengths of both indices in detecting drought onset and duration while addressing limitations such as sensitivity to PET methods. The findings emphasize the importance of tailoring thresholds, timescales, PET models, and probability distributions to local climatic conditions. The proposed framework is crucial for mitigating drought impacts and supporting decision-makers in sustainable water resource management in the Tensift Basin. Additionally, this research underscores the need for systematic reporting of drought impacts to inform the development of comprehensive drought atlases and regional management strategies.

Keywords: Drought Impact, ROC Analysis, Threshold Optimization, Drought Risk, Climate Change

How to cite: Naim, M. and Bonaccorso, B.: Linking Drought Index-Based Metrics to Real-World Impacts for Enhanced Monitoring in the Tensift River Basin, Morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5243, 2025.

EGU25-5548 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Development of a Triple Drought Management Index Using Copula-Based Trivariate Frequency Analysis 

Jiyoung Kim, Sung Min Park, Jiyoung Yoo, and Tae-Woong Kim

Drought is one of the costliest natural disasters, causing economic, social and environmental damage worldwide. Many researchers demonstrate that climate change will make extreme weather events more intense in the future. As extreme weather events increase, the frequency and magnitude of drought are likely to increase, requiring a proactive approach to drought management. Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability (RRV) are used in drought risk management to assess the management of water resources under drought conditions. The RRV framework provides comprehensive analyses on the probability of success or failure of a system, the rate of recovery (or rebound) of a system from unsatisfactory conditions and quantifying the expected consequences of being in unsatisfactory conditions for extended periods. It is necessary to consider all three criteria as uncertainty increases under climate change. This study proposes a triple drought management index (TDMI) by integrating the RRV indicators. Since the RRV indicators may be dependent on each other in drought situations, a copula model was used to describe the nonlinear dependence structure. The trivariate copulas considered for this study are the Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel copulas of the Archimedean family, which are commonly used in the field of hydrology. According to the TDMI calculation, the Seomjin River basin had a maximum TDMI index value of 2.19 during the period 1992-1994. According to the classification criteria, this corresponds to a severe drought, and indeed, the area was affected by limited water supply during this period. This study proposes a model for more comprehensive drought management by incorporating the RRV indicators. It can not only determine whether a drought is occurring but also comprehensively determine the overall state of the system under drought conditions.

 

Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Water Management Innovation Program for Drought (RS-2022-KE002032) funded by Korea Ministry of Environment.

How to cite: Kim, J., Park, S. M., Yoo, J., and Kim, T.-W.: Development of a Triple Drought Management Index Using Copula-Based Trivariate Frequency Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5548, 2025.

The last twenty years have shown the most extreme drought events in Europe on record. In the Rhine River basin, these droughts have severely impacted the shipping and industry sectors due to low water levels limiting the transport of goods. Drought prediction, therefore, is crucial but difficult to achieve due to the complexities of the propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts. In this study, we analyzed the relation between several meteorological drought indices and the occurrence of hydrological droughts. We found that the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows the highest correlation. SPEI was then used to single out extreme meteorological droughts from the LAERTES-EU data set, which contains about 12.500 years of meteorological variables simulated under current climate conditions by several setups of the regional COSMO-CLM model. These most extreme meteorological droughts were then propagated through the hydrological model WRF-Hydro to produce streamflow at the Rhine, which was then evaluated in terms of hydrological drought severity by comparison with observed hydrological droughts. Overall, this approach reveals insights into the magnitude of extremely rare hydrological droughts, and their predictability from the corresponding meteorological drought indices.

How to cite: Campoverde, A., Ehret, U., Ludwig, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation using the large ensemble of regional climate model simulations for Europe (LAERTES-EU). A case study for the Rhine River Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5611, 2025.

EGU25-6173 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Relationships between low-flow-indices and groundwater levels in Lower Saxony, Germany 

Ronja Iffland and Uwe Haberlandt

In recent years, Europe has experienced severe droughts (2018-2020) due to reduced summer precipitation and high temperatures, leading to reduced runoff and groundwater levels. According to climate change projections, these conditions will become more frequent. These droughts have significant impacts on ecosystems, drinking water supplies and navigation, for example.

During such dry periods, rivers are mainly fed by groundwater. The aim of this study is to statistically analyse the interaction between surface water discharge, especially during dry periods, and groundwater levels. For 128 catchments in Lower Saxony, Germany, correlations between selected low flow characterising indices and groundwater level indices are calculated. Therefore, groundwater levels from spatial interpolation of shallow, unconfined aquifers were aggregated at the catchment level. The study focuses on mean and minimum groundwater levels over different monthly time periods as well as the standardised groundwater level index (SGI) to reveal possible patterns and relationships with low flow indices. We expect to find non-linear correlations particularly between the SGI and specific low flow indicators such as lowest 7-day average flow (NM7Q), deficit volume and low flow duration. A further aim is to investigate whether these relationships can be used to improve statistical models, such as multiple linear regression, to provide a predictive framework for low flow conditions based on groundwater levels. Such relationships and correlations may improve our understanding of how groundwater levels can act as an additional predictor of low flow conditions.

How to cite: Iffland, R. and Haberlandt, U.: Relationships between low-flow-indices and groundwater levels in Lower Saxony, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6173, 2025.

As a complex natural disaster, drought exerts wide-ranging impacts on environmental, hydrological, agricultural, and socioeconomic dimensions. Despite extensive studies on conventional drought types, understanding environmental droughts remains limited, hindering effective assessments. To address this, the present study introduces a novel Environmental Drought Index (EDI) to quantify environmental droughts (Srivastava & Maity, 2023). It evaluates its performance against established indices in India’s Brahmani River basin, specifically the Jaraikela catchment. The EDI was developed by integrating Minimum in-stream Flow Requirements (MFR), calculated by integrating Drought Duration Length (DDL), and Water Shortage Level (WSL). Historical and future streamflow rates (1980–2045) were simulated using the HydroClimatic Conceptual Streamflow (HCCS) model with outputs from three CMIP-6 General Circulation Models (EC-Earth3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MRI-ESM2-0) under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The results indicated a strong agreement between simulated and observed EDI values, particularly for MPI-ESM1-2-HR under SSP585. Severe droughts were found to dominate future scenarios (71–73% of all drought events during FP-2: 2023–2045), especially in non-monsoonal months, contrasting with moderate drought prevalence under SSP245 and the historical period. To further explore drought complexities, the study employed a comprehensive multi-index framework incorporating EDI alongside the 3-month Soil Moisture Anomaly Index (SPAI-3), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), and 3-month Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI-3). This comparative analysis revealed a pronounced upward trend in drought frequency and severity from the late 20th century (1982–2000) to the early 21st century (2001–2023). Severe hydrological droughts increased from 10.5% to 21.7%, while severe environmental droughts rose from 31.6% to 52.2%. Moderate agricultural droughts, in contrast, declined from 100% to 47.8%, and moderate meteorological droughts increased significantly from 57.9% to 87.0%. These findings highlight the evolving drought patterns in the Jaraikela catchment, characterized by more frequent and prolonged droughts. The results underscore the value of EDI in capturing environmental drought dynamics, validated through strong historical correspondence, and its integration within a broader multi-index framework to address gaps in traditional approaches. The study redefines conventional drought classifications by incorporating environmental dimensions and provides adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of increasing drought severity under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: Climate Change Impacts; Water Resource Management; Adaptive Mitigation Strategies; Hydrological Modeling; Drought Vulnerability Assessment; Extreme Climatic Events

Reference: Srivastava, A., & Maity, R. (2023). Unveiling an Environmental Drought Index and its applicability in the perspective of drought recognition amidst climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 627, 130462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130462 

How to cite: Srivastava, A. and Maity, R.: From Concept to Comparison: Developing and Validating the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) for Holistic Drought Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6357, 2025.

EGU25-6905 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Advancing Drought Monitoring in India through Land Data Assimilation with CLM5-DART 

Devavat Chiru Naik, Dhanya Chadrika Thulaseedharan, Brett Raczka, and Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan

Drought, a recurring extreme climate event caused by prolonged below-average precipitation, results in significant water deficits and poses a substantial threat to India's economy, which is heavily reliant on agriculture. Despite notable monsoon rainfall, drought remains a persistent annual phenomenon, underscoring the need for accurate estimation and continuous monitoring to mitigate its adverse socio-economic impacts. Real-time drought monitoring, including spatial and temporal characterization, is critical for guiding policymakers and water resource managers in revising strategies, facilitating timely drought assistance programs, and distributing relief funds to affected areas and farmers. In India, drought monitoring faces challenges due to limited in-situ data for critical parameters such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow. Although satellites offer regular surface observations, their data is limited in spatial and temporal coverage due to orbital revisit cycles. Land Surface Models (LSMs), on the other hand, while offering uniform spatiotemporal estimates, are often hindered by uncertainties from atmospheric forcing and initial conditions. To address these limitations, integrating observations (in-situ/satellite) with LSMs through a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) has emerged as a promising solution to improve model accuracy, reduce uncertainties, and increase drought monitoring and forecasting skills. This study integrates the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) to establish a robust Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) framework. Specifically, soil moisture data from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) were assimilated to enhance soil moisture (SM) estimation.  The performance and efficacy of soil moisture (SM) estimates derived from the CLM5-DART LDAS were evaluated across India. Results indicate that CLM5 - DART reanalysis outputs significantly improved the representation of SM compared to standalone CLM5 simulations. These improvements were further analyzed for their impacts on key hydrological components, including evapotranspiration, runoff, and drought monitoring capabilities. The findings demonstrate that data assimilation integration substantially enhances the accuracy and resolution of SM estimates, advancing the reliability of real-time drought monitoring and risk management. This research provides a robust framework for improving drought resilience in India, offering valuable insights to support better-informed water resource management strategies and policy decisions.

How to cite: Naik, D. C., Chadrika Thulaseedharan, D., Raczka, B., and Fiifi Tawia Hagan, D.: Advancing Drought Monitoring in India through Land Data Assimilation with CLM5-DART, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6905, 2025.

EGU25-7337 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Improving the Reconstruction of the Hydrological Cycle through Satellite Observations: The Case Study of the Po River Basin 

Sindhu Kalimisetty, Serena Ceola, Irene Palazzoli, Alberto Montanari, Paolo Stocchi, Silvio Davolio, and Stefania Camici

In the context of climate change, increasing competition for freshwater use across various sectors is intensifying pressures on water resources, placing many countries at heightened risk of water scarcity. To mitigate the growing risk of water scarcity, it is imperative to reduce water usage intensity across agriculture, industry, energy production, and domestic sectors. Achieving this requires a comprehensive and detailed understanding of water consumption patterns in each sector, and estimating water storage in groundwater, reservoirs, and snowpack is essential to safeguard water availability for future generations.

The Po River basin in northern Italy has experienced significant hydrological droughts in recent decades (1990-2023), highlighting the need to understand the complex interactions between climate factors and human activities. This study, conducted as part of the INTERROGATION project funded by the Italian Ministry of Universities and Research, presents an integrated approach for water resource management during drought events.

The study employs a flexible conceptual hydrological model (MISDc - Modello Idrologico Semistribuito in Continuo) that incorporates both natural processes and anthropogenic influences. The model is driven by three distinct precipitation datasets: long-term (2000-2023) daily in-situ measurements, high-resolution (1.8km) reanalysis data, and high-resolution (1km) satellite precipitation data. The Bluecat tool (Montanari et al., 2022) is utilized to evaluate the uncertainty in modelled river discharge.

The model's performance is validated using multiple satellite-derived observations including soil moisture, evaporation, groundwater, irrigation, and snow accumulation data developed within the framework of European Space Agency Digital Twin Earth (DTE) Hydrology Next project. The model is capable to reproduce both natural hydrological processes and anthropogenic activities such as irrigation and reservoir operations.

Results demonstrate the effectiveness of combining accurate satellite observations with a well-calibrated hydrological model for capturing spatiotemporal variations in the hydrological cycle within highly anthropized basins. This integrated framework provides valuable insights for developing a decision support system to guide stakeholders in managing water resources during future drought events in the Po River basin.

How to cite: Kalimisetty, S., Ceola, S., Palazzoli, I., Montanari, A., Stocchi, P., Davolio, S., and Camici, S.: Improving the Reconstruction of the Hydrological Cycle through Satellite Observations: The Case Study of the Po River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7337, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7337, 2025.

EGU25-7449 | Orals | HS4.2

Analysis of historical drought in the Lisbon region, in the west of Portugal, using Reconnaissance Drought Index 

Hany Abd-Elhamid, Martina Zelenakova, Tatiana Soľáková, Maria Manuela Mortela, Luis Angel Espinosa, Issa Oskoui, Jacek Baranczuk, and Katarzyna Baranczuk

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon whose likelihood is increasing due to climate change, which is gradually altering temperature and precipitation patterns. While various drought indices exist for monitoring extreme dry conditions, this study employs the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) due to its accuracy and dependency on both precipitation and temperature. The research aims to assess historical droughts in the Lisbon region (Portugal) by applying RDI to a 157-year time series (1864-2021) using monthly precipitation and temperature data from the Lisboa-Geofísico climatological station. The influence of potential evapotranspiration (PET) on drought identification was analysed, alongside temporal drought assessments at short-term (3-month RDI, RDI-3), mid-term (6-month RDI, RDI-6), and long-term (12-month RDI, RDI-12) scales. RDI was computed monthly using the Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC), with three PET methods-Hargreaves, Thornthwaite, and Blaney-Criddle-compared for their performance. The standardized RDI, calculated preferably using the Hargreaves method for the Lisbon region, served as the index for spatial and temporal drought assessment. Results revealed frequent extreme drought events (when RDI values were less than minus two), with the most intense drought occurring in 2005 across all time scales. For meteorological drought (RDI-3 for short-term atmospheric conditions), 39 extreme events occurred, with a total of 51 months under drought conditions, with the longest event (5 months) in 2005. Agricultural drought (RDI-6 for soil moisture deficits) showed 18 extreme events lasting 28 months, with the longest (7 months) in 2005. Hydrological drought (RDI-12 for water resource depletion) exhibited 9 extreme events spanning 25 months, with the longest (9 months) also in 2005. The average return time for extreme drought in Lisbon was estimated at 4, 7, and 8 years for meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. This comprehensive regional drought risk assessment based on the standardized RDI index provides valuable insights for effective drought management in the Lisbon region.

 

Keywords: Drought risk assessment, empirical methods, PET, RDI, Lisbon, Portugal

 

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the Contract no. APVV-20-0281 a project funded by the Ministry of Education of the Slovak Republic. This work was also supported by the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through funding UIDB/04625/2020 from the research unit CERIS and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme SCORE under grant agreement No 101003534.

How to cite: Abd-Elhamid, H., Zelenakova, M., Soľáková, T., Manuela Mortela, M., Angel Espinosa, L., Oskoui, I., Baranczuk, J., and Baranczuk, K.: Analysis of historical drought in the Lisbon region, in the west of Portugal, using Reconnaissance Drought Index, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7449, 2025.

EGU25-7662 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

GIS-based composite indices for drought assessment: a scientometric analysis 

Mihnea-Ștefan Costache and Liliana Zaharia

Drought has become an increasingly recurrent phenomenon worldwide with far-reaching societal and environmental consequences. To adequately manage the drought, the scientific research is essential. In recent decades numerous indices were developed for drought analysis. The evolution of the geospatial technologies has enabled the design of several indices, based both on terrestrial and satellite data, to analyze the drought characteristics. The most common indices are based on hydroclimatic parameters, simple or combined. In recent years, complex indices (called composite, integrated, multivariate or hybrid) were developed, which incorporate several drought control variables, combined and mapped in GIS environment. They allow a more reliable analysis of drought and the identification of areas susceptible to this hazard. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of publications on the composite indices for drought assessment developed in GIS environment, based on a scientometric analysis.

The study relies on the Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases, from which a total of 345 papers were initially extracted (205 from WoS and 140 from Scopus) by searching for the expressions integrated drought index gis; composite drought gis; multivariate drought gis. Duplicates were removed using the ScientoPy software. Finally, 262 papers were retained from both databases, published between 1994 and 2024. The same software was used for statistical analysis regarding some characteristics of the publications (e.g., the countries and institutions of affiliation of the authors, the scientific fields of the papers, connections between authors, etc.) Furthermore, some of this data was mapped using the ArcGisPro software. For the analysis of author clusters, the VOSviewer software was used.

The results showed that most authors of the identified papers are affiliated in Asian countries, especially in India (64) and China (58), followed by the United States (42). Most authors' affiliation institutions are located in China: the Chinese Academy of Sciences has the highest frequency (10), followed by the Peking University (5), and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (5). Iran is also noteworthy with University of Tehran (7), as well as India, represented by the Vidyasagar University (6).

The number of publications per year varied during the analyzed period, with the highest number of 39 in 2024. The major scientific fields to which the papers on composite drought indices belong were: Environmental Sciences and Ecology (76), Water Resources (60), Geology (50), Remote Sensing (34), and Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (28).

Out of a total of 1086 authors of the analyzed publications, the highest number of common connections was 35, in general, between Asian researchers. Furthermore, many of the 35 authors with the most connections collaborated between 2006 and 2016, while the other groups published after 2020.

Overall, this scientometric analysis shows that the use in drought research of composite indices developed in GIS environment is still quite limited although in the last 5 years an increase in the number of papers on this topic was noted (mainly in Asian countries). Therefore, more attention should be paid to this more reliable method of drought analysis.

How to cite: Costache, M.-Ș. and Zaharia, L.: GIS-based composite indices for drought assessment: a scientometric analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7662, 2025.

Effective drought management requires precise measurement, but this is challenging due to the variety of drought indices and indicators, each with unique methods and specific uses, and limited ground data availability. This study utilizes remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020 to compute drought indices categorized as meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological. A Gaussian kernel convolves these indices into a denoised, multi-band composite image. Further refinement with a Gaussian kernel enhances a single drought index from each category: Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Soil Moisture Agricultural Drought Index (SMADI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). The enhanced index, encompassing all bands, serves as a predictor for classification and regression tree (CART), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF) machine learning models, further improving the three indices. CART demonstrated the highest accuracy and error minimization across all drought categories, with root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) values between 0 and 0.4. RF ranked second, while SVM, though less reliable, achieved values below 0.7. The results show persistent drought in the Sahel, North Africa, and southwestern Africa, with meteorological drought affecting 30% of Africa, agricultural drought affecting 22%, and hydrological drought affecting 21%.

Funding: This work was supported by the Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI) (Grant number: 2022003460001).

How to cite: Jun, K. S. and Sseguya, F.: Advancing Drought Monitoring and Prediction in Africa Using Remote Sensing, Gaussian Kernel, and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7989, 2025.

EGU25-8282 | Orals | HS4.2

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Trends in Sicily Using ERA5-Land Data   

David Johnny Peres, Tagele Mossie Aschale, Nunziarita Palazzolo, Gaetano Buonacera, and Antonino Cancelliere

Drought presents significant impacts on water resources, agriculture, and socioeconomic stability, particularly in the Mediterranean region, where climate change intensifies these challenges. This study examines the long-term spatiotemporal trends of drought in Sicily using ERA5-Land reanalysis data from 1950. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month scales were employed to quantify drought conditions across multiple timescales. To detect and quantify trends while accounting for autocorrelation, the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied. Results confirmed that 2002 was the most severe drought year, affecting all timescales. Spatial analysis indicated that western, southern, and southeastern regions, including Trapani, Catania, Syracuse, and Ragusa, experienced the highest severity and frequency of drought events. Conversely, northeastern areas, such as Messina and parts of Palermo, were less affected. SPI exhibited increasing trends in the eastern part of Sicily (Province of Catania); whereas SPEI trends indicated significant drying in western regions. Severe drought episodes (SPI/SPEI ≤ -1.5) were evenly distributed across short-term scales (1- and 3-month scales) but exhibited spatial variability at longer timescales (24- and 48-month scales). Extreme drought episodes (SPI/SPEI ≤ -2) were concentrated in western and northwestern Sicily, with SPI detecting up to 40 extreme events and SPEI identifying up to 25. These findings highlight the critical need for targeted, adaptive strategies to mitigate drought impacts, particularly in western and southern Sicily. Even though ERA5-Land precipitation and temperature data present some limitations, the analysis revealed that they are suitable for identifying the most severe drought episodes, especially at longer aggregation timescales (12 and 24 months). The study thus underscores the importance of continuous drought monitoring and advanced modeling techniques to inform mitigation and adaptation efforts.  

How to cite: Peres, D. J., Aschale, T. M., Palazzolo, N., Buonacera, G., and Cancelliere, A.: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Drought Trends in Sicily Using ERA5-Land Data  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8282, 2025.

EGU25-8425 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Global scale predictability of hydrological drought: evaluating the skill of the GloFAS - Copernicus EMS sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast of river discharge 

Vanesa García-Gamero, Carmelo Cammalleri, Alessandro Ceppi, Christel Prudhomme, Arthur Ramos, Juan Camilo Acosta Navarro, and Andrea Toreti

Major impacts associated to hydrological droughts are often neglected in early warning systems. Extensive research in hydrological drought forecasting is crucial to develop an effective early warning strategy. This work aims at quantifying the sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of these extreme hydroclimatic events globally, by evaluating the skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), as part of the Copernicus Emergency Management System (CEMS). Two river discharge datasets for the period 1991-2020 from the LISFLOOD hydrological model were used, based on: 1) reanalysis (ERA5) forcings, and 2) seasonal forecast (SEAS5). River discharge values were converted into anomalies, namely the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), at three-time horizons (1, 3, and 6 months ahead). The skill metrics computed between the SSI reanalysis (reference) and the forecasts were the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), the Gilbert Skill Score (GSS), and the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Moreover, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the ensemble forecast was used as a complementary metric to quantify the skill. The study evaluated the overall forecast predictability for the full year, as well as seasonal and spatiotemporal differences in the predictability and the effects of initial conditions. On average, forecast skill is higher for 1 and 3 months ahead (r= 0.81 and r= 0.70, respectively) compared to 6 months ahead (r= 0.61), with similar results in terms of spatial patterns. Seasonal differences in predictability can be well explained by average river discharge seasonality, with highest skill when river discharge is low. The forecast skill spatial patterns indicate a strong dependency on the inter-annual variability of initial conditions and precipitation, especially in summer and spring-summer seasons for the former and in winter and autumn-winter for the latter. Overall, high skill is associated with high SNR, suggesting that SNR could be used as a proxy variable for forecasting skill in operational applications. The results underline the potential of the evaluated sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast for hydrological drought predictions, suggesting a potentially successful implementation as a product as part of the CEMS Global Drought Observatory (GDO) system.

Acknowledgements:
This work is funded by the European Union, under the HORIZON-CL4-2023-SPACE-01 project “Strengthening Extreme Events Detection for Floods and Droughts” (SEED-FD), grant no. 101135110.

How to cite: García-Gamero, V., Cammalleri, C., Ceppi, A., Prudhomme, C., Ramos, A., Acosta Navarro, J. C., and Toreti, A.: Global scale predictability of hydrological drought: evaluating the skill of the GloFAS - Copernicus EMS sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast of river discharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8425, 2025.

Large-scale climate oscillations significantly influence regional agricultural droughts and are crucial for understanding their predictability. However, atmospheric teleconnections linked to these droughts under various climate oscillation regimes are complex and not fully understood, especially when considering temporal delays. This study employs Event-based Coincidence Analysis (ECA) to statistically explore the timing and magnitude of relationships between climate oscillation regimes and the onset of agricultural droughts across different agro-ecological zones of India  , with time lags (τ) ranging from 1 to 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.   ECA is a mathematical framework that quantifies the synchronicity and interdependency between event series such as climate oscillations and agricultural drought events by evaluating the frequency of coinciding occurrences within a defined time window (ΔT) and at specified time lags (τ).  We utilize the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) to assess agricultural droughts from 1951 to 2014. The SSMI data are aggregated over three months based on GLDAS VIC model observations. Our analysis includes synchronization between drought events and climate indices, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Niño 3.4, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Integrating various time lags allows us to capture both immediate and delayed influences of climate on drought prediction and management strategies. Our results identify significant variations in precursor rates across different time lags and regions, clearly delineating how specific climate indices influence agricultural drought dynamics. Notably, in the northern and central zones of India, Niño 3.4 and the AMO are found to strongly drive drought conditions at longer time lags (τ = 6, 9, 12 months), with a peak coincidence rate of 60% during positive Niño 3.4 episodes. Conversely, in the southern and western regions, significant drought mitigation effects are associated with shorter time lags (τ = 1, 3 months), where the DMI and AMO show high precursor rates of 40 to 60 percent during positive phases.  This study highlights the distinct temporal dynamics of climate indices and emphasizes the role of atmospheric mechanisms, including wind anomalies and vertical velocity at 850 hPa, in modulating these effects. We observe distinct influences on drought patterns, which vary significantly across regions and time lags, highlighting the necessity for region-specific agricultural and water management strategies based on these dynamics to address both drought occurrence and water scarcity challenges effectively.

How to cite: Venkatesh, K. and Sivakumar, B.: Disentangling Temporally Lagged Synchronization of Climate Oscillations on Agricultural Droughts across India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9018, 2025.

EGU25-9095 | Orals | HS4.2

From the weather forecast to the push notification: Switzerland's new drought warning system 

Vincent Humphrey, Fabia Huesler, Simone Bircher-Adrot, Yannick Barton, Luca Benelli, Thérèse Buergi, Annie Yuan-Yuan Chang, Flurina Dobler, Adel Imamovic, Johannes Rempfer, Jana von Freyberg, David Oesch, Hélène Salvi, Joan Sturm, Massimiliano Zappa, and Carlo Scapozza

Droughts in Switzerland have become more frequent and severe in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue. At the same time, increasing water demand and competition between different actors are putting more pressure on existing water resources, leading to drought being rated within the top 10 costliest potential hazards for Switzerland. A comprehensive national monitoring and forecasting system, to be launched in 2025, is being established through the joint efforts of three different government agencies.

We will present the Swiss national drought monitoring system with a particular focus on the web platform and the operational warning system, both of which were developed in close collaboration with local decision-makers and end-users. The information system is a public web platform synthesizing various data streams (i.e. precipitation, streamflow and groundwater, space-based monitoring of vegetation health and land surface temperature) and provides homogeneous forecasts of drought quantities with a horizon of four weeks. Historical observations and sub-seasonal forecasts are merged to provide seamless information on drought that can be easily and interactively compared to action-relevant thresholds as well as historical events. The main drought variables are also summarized into a combined drought index which is used to provide an overall evaluation of the situation and forms the basis for drought warnings. Starting from 2025, drought warnings will be released by national agencies through official channels in the same way as they already are for other natural hazards like floods or heatwaves, over national web platforms and push notifications on the MeteoSwiss mobile App (2.5 million visits per day). The two-tiered warning strategy was designed in collaboration with end-users and authorities to take into account some of the particularly challenging aspects of drought compared to other natural hazards. These include, among other things, the need for sector-specific and impact-oriented information, and the difficulty for a national system to accurately reflect the highly heterogeneous and localized mitigation measures that are of most interest to the end-users during an extreme event.

Analysis of the historical 2018 drought shows that the forecasting system would have correctly triggered a response at the level of regional authorities 1.5 months ahead of the event peak. A higher-level and more broadly visible warning would have been released again a month later, about two weeks ahead of the event peak. We will conclude with an overview of future plans and of the event-based feedback mechanisms through which end-users and regional authorities will contribute to improving the warning system and our ability to track drought impacts at the local scale.

How to cite: Humphrey, V., Huesler, F., Bircher-Adrot, S., Barton, Y., Benelli, L., Buergi, T., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Dobler, F., Imamovic, A., Rempfer, J., von Freyberg, J., Oesch, D., Salvi, H., Sturm, J., Zappa, M., and Scapozza, C.: From the weather forecast to the push notification: Switzerland's new drought warning system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9095, 2025.

EGU25-9278 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Predicting Groundwater Drought in Ireland Using a Machine Learning Ensemble  

Tarig Mohamed, Ahmed Nasr, and Paul Hynds

Groundwater droughts in temperate regions are typically considered rare phenomena and consequently neglected in research despite their significant socio-economic and ecological impacts. In light of increasing water demands and climate change intensity, understanding and predicting groundwater droughts are essential for sustainable water resource management.

This study aims to define, identify and predict groundwater drought events across the Irish groundwater network by integrating multiple drought identification indices with machine learning (ML) techniques. Groundwater level (GWL) time series from 100 monitoring stations, methods: (i) the Threshold Level Method (TLM), which identifies drought when GWLs fall below predefined thresholds (ii) the Percentage of Normal (PON), which quantifies deviations in mean GWL relative to a baseline reference period; and (iii) the Standardised Groundwater Index (SGI), which normalises GWLs to classify drought severity. Subsequently, these approaches were evaluated and compared based on their ability to characterise drought events, using the 2018 drought for validation. This process enabled the selection of the most suitable indicator for predictive modelling.

An ensemble of ML binary classifiers including Logistic Regression (LR), Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost (XGB) were trained using meteorological inputs such as precipitation and temperature, to predict groundwater drought occurrences. However, the imbalanced class problem (rare drought events) was found to reduce classifier accuracy therefore, datasets were resampled using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) technique, using several balance conditions of 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% minority class distribution.

Analyses indicate that the TLM and PON exhibit low sensitivity for drought detection, whereas the SGI was significantly more effective in characterising drought events within the Irish hydrogeological environment. Results show that the SMOTE technique enhanced performance of LR, GLM, and DT models, demonstrated by higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and area under the precision/recall curve (AUCPR) values. However, XGB showed superior stability and accuracy across all sampling conditions. Notably, with a 40% minority class, XGB achieved the highest Recall and Precision values of 91.6% and 95.2%, respectively. As expected, model interpretations highlighted precipitation as a key precursor to drought propagation, with stations showing variable vulnerability linked to cumulative precipitation lags.

Future research directions will involve developing multi-scale early-warning models for groundwater drought using machine learning and deep learning. These models will be upscaled to a national level to map spatiotemporal impacts and inform groundwater management planning under changing climatic conditions.

How to cite: Mohamed, T., Nasr, A., and Hynds, P.: Predicting Groundwater Drought in Ireland Using a Machine Learning Ensemble , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9278, 2025.

EGU25-9383 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Driver-based classification of hydrological droughts in a large alpine catchment 

Andrea Galletti, Susen Shrestha, Stefano Terzi, and Giacomo Bertoldi

Despite being traditionally regarded as water-rich, alpine regions are increasingly vulnerable to droughts due to the compounding effects of extreme climate events and conflicting water uses. This study focuses on the Upper Adige catchment, where shifts in its traditionally snow-driven hydrological regime are intensifying, calling for systematic adaptation to meet diverse demands across agriculture, ecosystems, and hydropower.

In this study, we investigate the formation mechanisms and leading causes of hydrological drought in this area analyzing 27 historical drought events related to the 1997-2022 time window. We apply the conceptual hydrological model ICHYMOD to assess key drought formation mechanisms in the region. The model is initially validated against observed streamflow time series and demonstrates reliable performance in capturing both dry and wet day patterns and in identifying severe drought events, with accuracy exceeding 75% across several validation sites. The analysis then focuses on a model-based evaluation of hydrological drought formation with reference to the entire Upper Adige basin, assessing how drought propagates through the hydrological cycle and identifying recurrent patterns. A tree-based classification framework aimed at classifying the droughts according to their driving mechanism is developed, deriving threshold and classification criteria informed by expert knowledge of the region. 

The automated classification subdivides the historical events into six categories, and the results closely mirror the outcomes of visual classification, affirming the robustness of the approach and its alignment with domain expertise. 25% of droughts originating from two or more leading mechanisms are classified as composite, constituting one additional category. Our results reveal that the longest droughts are typically driven by early snowmelt, which depletes summer water reserves, or by precipitation deficits heading into winter, leading to prolonged recessions of water resources. These drought categories also record the highest deficits in terms of streamflow volume, partially due to their extended durations. The lowest streamflows typically occur in spring, driven by either rainfall deficits or delayed snowmelt at the end of the winter recession. Temperature emerges as a key driver with contrasting effects: while high temperatures accelerate snowmelt and exacerbate summer droughts, excessively low temperatures prolong winter recessions, intensifying spring water conflicts when demands are most critical.

This framework provides a systematic approach to understanding drought formation in alpine regions and can be leveraged in conjunction with hydrometeorological monitoring to support the development of an operational drought warning system. Integrating real-time observations with the classification logic enables actionable early warnings, enhancing preparedness and guiding response strategies for future drought events.

How to cite: Galletti, A., Shrestha, S., Terzi, S., and Bertoldi, G.: Driver-based classification of hydrological droughts in a large alpine catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9383, 2025.

EGU25-9445 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

High space- and time-resolution drought monitoring using harmonized Landsat and Sentinel data with Drone imagery 

Gholamreza Nikravesh, Raffaele Persico, Bruno Evola, Alfonso Senatore, and Giuseppe Mendicino

Drought is gaining global attention due to its irrefutable and irreparable damages. Aiming at exploiting the great potential of remote sensing platforms to facilitate drought monitoring and characterization, even through multi-sensor-based approaches, this contribution underscores the efficacy of harmonizing Landsat and Sentinel data, driven by high-resolution drone imagery, to monitor drought conditions on a local scale over a large farm located in the Calabria Region, southern Italy.

To accomplish the monitoring, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been exploited, and the cloud coverage has been evaluated at a local level so as to discard the images that are locally cloudy and shadowy and retain instead those locally cloud-free for further process. Machine learning techniques, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNN), and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), were employed to develop accurate cloud and shadow masks. The approach was enhanced with special spatial filtering considering seven bands for the cloud masking and the SWIR1 band for shadow masking, leading to remarkable accuracies of 96.9% for Sentinel and 89.4% for Landsat imagery.

Remote sensing data harmonization from different sources was driven by high-resolution drone imagery. Specifically, on July 12, 2024, a drone survey was carried out, and the reflectance in its Red and NIR bands (needed for NDVI calculation) was compared with that provided by satellite data for the same date, highlighting that Sentinel’s reflectance is radiometrically closer to that provided by the drone.

Subsequently, Landsat and Sentinel data were harmonized, and Landsat data were modified to converge to the Sentinel data. In order to do this, over the six months ranging from April 15 to October 15, 2024, a linear relationship between the Landsat and Sentinel Red and NIR spectral bands was determined in the dates when both images were available at most one day of distance. Then, the linear equation coefficients were also estimated for Landsat images acquired at more than one day of distance from Sentinel ones, applying a linear interpolation over time between the closest dates with simultaneous or near-simultaneous (i.e., one-day difference) acquisition between the two platforms.

The procedure was tested by comparing the extracted NDVI values (namely, Sentinel NDVI and harmonized Landsat NDVI) with the local information about agricultural activities and with other four high-resolution drone surveys, implying the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The proposed integrated approach not only improves the monitoring of drought conditions but can also help agricultural management and disaster response in vulnerable regions.

Acknowledgments: This study was funded by The Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’, Project Tech4You - Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009.

How to cite: Nikravesh, G., Persico, R., Evola, B., Senatore, A., and Mendicino, G.: High space- and time-resolution drought monitoring using harmonized Landsat and Sentinel data with Drone imagery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9445, 2025.

EGU25-10881 | Posters on site | HS4.2

The drought response of European ecosystem processes via multiple components of the hydrological cycle 

Christian Poppe Teran, Bibi S. Naz, Alexandre Belleflamme, Harry Vereecken, and Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen

Like those recently experienced in 2018 and 2022, European droughts significantly alter ecosystem processes, such as photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Quantifying these large-scale alterations and understanding their drivers is essential to studying the drought impacts on ecosystem performance, water resource management, and carbon emission budgeting. However, to this date, because of differing definitions of drought events and complex interactions among eco-hydrological variables across multiple time scales, research has only painted a blurry picture of the impacts of droughts on ecosystems.

In this work, based on pan-European simulations of the land surface model CLM5-BGC, we identified drought events with a generalized clustering algorithm considering water deficits in multiple compartments of the hydrological cycle (groundwater, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and vapor pressure deficit). Further, we distinguished these droughts' direct and lagged effects by aggregating water deficits across various time scales and their impacts on ecosystem processes by accounting for the absolute anomalies at the event locations.

We highlight statistics and trends of the identified drought events, their drivers, and their impact on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, with increasingly severe soil moisture and vapor pressure deficits. In the shorter time scales, atmospheric droughts are the primary driver of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration anomalies. This study presents a novel multi-scale and multivariate approach to droughts, paving the way for holistic and more precise considerations of their impacts on ecosystems.

How to cite: Poppe Teran, C., S. Naz, B., Belleflamme, A., Vereecken, H., and Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.: The drought response of European ecosystem processes via multiple components of the hydrological cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10881, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10881, 2025.

Seasonal hydrological forecasts have become an essential tool for water resources management, especially in the context of increasing droughts in the 21st century. As part of the CIPRHES project, the purpose here is to assess the capacity of a hydrological forecast modelling chain to simulate low-water flows over France, in order to extract relevant indicators of hydrological droughts for decision-makers, such as the anticipation, i.e., the start date of a drought event, and the precision, i.e., the lowest observed flow for 10 consecutive days (VCN10). Seamless meteorological forecasts, combining 10-days ECMWF forecasts with 134-days forecasts simulated by the ARPEGE model using the Ensemble Copula Coupling method, are used to force the SURFEX land surface model coupled with the CTRIP river routing model to simulate 144-days river hydrological forecasts. To bring this study into real-time conditions, data assimilation is performed on a 7-days simulation prior to each forecast using the observed discharges at the gauged stations from the CAMELS database, to correct the internal states of the CTRIP model. The results show that data assimilation significantly improves the simulations over the assimilated period, and its persistence (i.e., the duration of the effect of the data assimilation) is over 30 days for the largest rivers but close to 0 days on the smaller ones. This last point leads to a poor effect of data assimilation on the CAMELS database catchments, most of them having a surface lower than 1000 km2. However, the modelling chain simulates a good anticipation for 70% of the used stations from the CAMELS database, and a precision deviation closed to 0 for the large majority of the stations. A post-bias correction procedure based on the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method at each station allows to improve the estimations of these indicators, e.g., good anticipation for 86% of the stations.

How to cite: Jeantet, A., Munier, S., and Rousset, F.: Using a seamless forecast ensemble to force the CTRIP river routing model in order to simulate hydrological drought indicators useful to decision-makers in France., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11671, 2025.

EGU25-12692 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Assessing the impacts of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and atmospheric blockings on rainfall variability in Brazilian biomes using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) 

Aimée Guida Barroso, Livia Sancho, Louise da Fonseca Aguiar, Priscila Esposte Coutinho, Vitor Luiz Victalino Galves, Gean Paulo Michel, Franciele Zanandrea, and Marcio Cataldi

Climate change is disrupting atmospheric patterns, which, in turn, alters precipitation regimes worldwide. Droughts are becoming more frequent, intense, prolonged, and spatially distributed, posing a threat to water security for millions of people. Drought monitoring is particularly critical in Brazil, a country that encompasses diverse climate regimes and biomes, and where rainfall variability greatly impacts social vulnerabilities, biodiversity, and the economy. To better understand disruptions in rainfall patterns leading to drier conditions in Brazil, we evaluated the correlation between the occurrence of atmospheric blockings and episodes of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) with rainfall variability, particularly for droughts, in various biomes. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to characterize precipitation variability, presenting simple yet robust statistical insights into the distribution, duration and frequency of rainfalls surpluses (positive values) and droughts (negative values). The SPI values for 1, 6 and 12 months were calculated using observed rainfall data from the Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD) database, from 1961 to 2024. SACZ episodes and atmospheric blocking events were identified using indices developed by LAMMOC/UFF research group, which effectively describe the behaviour of these systems across various regions of the country. The atmospheric blocking index was calculated using ERA5 reanalysis data, while NCEP reanalysis data was the input to the SACZ index. All data were normalized prior to statistical analyses, which included Pearson’s correlation coefficient, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), K-means clustering, Mann-Kendall test, and trend analysis to identify and quantify trends. The results demonstrate that atmospheric blocking events are increasing in all regions of Brazil. Conversely, the SACZ occurrences did not demonstrate a significant trend. The correlation between atmospheric blockings and SPI values exhibit a strong pattern in all evaluated time scales and regions, demonstrating significant positive influence in the Pampa biome within all evaluated time scales, suggesting that blockings, regardless of their position, incur in rainfall surpluses in South Brazil. In the other biomes, blockings show a consistent negative influence, particularly in Cerrado, Pantanal and Amazonia (Central and Northern regions). Cerrado shows correlations of up to -0.5, the highest values observed in the analysis - suggesting atmospheric blockings have an inhibiting effect in precipitation, creating drier conditions that are concerning for wildfire hazard in central Brazil, and also in Southern Amazonia. SACZ and SPI correlation is not as clear, with small to no trend in most biomes, except for the slight negative influence on the Pampa, region where precipitation decreases as active SACZs concentrate rainfall northward. Understanding the correlation between these important atmospheric systems and the precipitation variability observed in Brazil is valuable to drought monitoring and prediction, and may help to identify early warning signals for major droughts, providing insights that can guide mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the impacts of climate change, which affects differently the regions of the country due to the complexity of its diverse climate regimes and biomes, and therefore, water availability and wildfire hazard.

How to cite: Guida Barroso, A., Sancho, L., da Fonseca Aguiar, L., Esposte Coutinho, P., Victalino Galves, V. L., Michel, G. P., Zanandrea, F., and Cataldi, M.: Assessing the impacts of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and atmospheric blockings on rainfall variability in Brazilian biomes using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12692, 2025.

EGU25-12748 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Droughts and Changes in Water Resource Availability in the Cuneo Province   

Benedetta Rivella, Emanuele Mombrini, Stefania Tamea, and Alberto Viglione

Hydrological research conducted in the province of Cuneo, located in southern Piedmont, Italy, highlights significant trends in meteorological droughts, showing increasing duration and intensity over recent decades. Prolonged dry periods caused by low precipitation, often combined with high temperatures and elevated evapotranspiration, lead to severe impacts on agriculture, surface water resources, and socio-economic systems. This study identifies major drought events affecting the Cuneo area using standardized meteorological and hydrological indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). The propagation of drought from meteorological to hydrological conditions is analysed by correlating basin-wide precipitation indices at various temporal scales with streamflow indices at the basin outlet. Spearman’s correlation coefficient, adjusted for autocorrelation, is used to determine the temporal scale with the highest correlation, providing an indication on the basin’s drought response time. Spatial variability in response times is further explored in relation to basin characteristics such as gauge elevation and drainage area. Beyond characterizing drought propagation, the study integrates the quantitative analysis with qualitative insights obtained collaborating with water utility managers. Their direct experience of droughts periods in the water supply system represents an invaluable source of information. We aim at combining the quantitative and qualitative pieces of information to link drought causes to their real consequences and impacts on the study area, addressing both physical and socio-economic dimensions. 

How to cite: Rivella, B., Mombrini, E., Tamea, S., and Viglione, A.: Droughts and Changes in Water Resource Availability in the Cuneo Province  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12748, 2025.

EGU25-13033 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Propagation of droughts with Standardized Indexes associated with storage services under changes 

Caline Leite, Ana Paula Cunha, Veber Afonso Figueredo Costa, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

During drought periods, reservoirs are intended to ensure water availability to meet specific demands within a river basin. However, the increasing frequency and duration of droughts that may be caused by climate change and rising population demands for water may prevent reservoirs from replenishing the necessary volumes for subsequent drought events, potentially prolonging their effects. This study aims to investigate how reservoirs can influence the time of propagation of droughts in the context of climate change, in Brazilian river basins located across different biomes. To achieve this, i) the time of propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts was calculated using standardized indices for the period 1990 to 2024; additionally, ii) in each basin, drought events in a main reservoir was evaluated using the Standardized Reservoir Drought Index over the same period; and finally, iii) indicators representing the effects of climate change — such as the temporal evolution of evapotranspiration — and increased water demands driven by human activities — such as changes in land use and occupation in agricultural and urban areas— was also be assessed for the same period. This analysis seeks to discuss potential relationships among the time of propagation time to hydrological droughts, reservoir droughts, population demands, and climate change.

How to cite: Leite, C., Cunha, A. P., Figueredo Costa, V. A., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Propagation of droughts with Standardized Indexes associated with storage services under changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13033, 2025.

EGU25-13154 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Deciphering Flash Droughts in India: Trends, Dynamics, and Prediction Insights 

Ashish Pathania and Vivek Gupta

Droughts are among the most severe hydro-meteorological hazards. IPCC (2022) reports that the global area affected by droughts is expected to increase in the context of climate change. Their impact on the agriculture, economy, and ecosystems of a region is significant. Flash droughts represent a particularly challenging phenomenon characterized by their rapid onset. They are primarily driven by a sudden increase in evapotranspiration coupled with significant deficits in precipitation. The duration of flash droughts is relatively shorter as compared to traditional droughts. They are difficult to predict and often lack adequate mitigation measures. High-resolution indices such as the pentad-scale (5-day) SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) have emerged as essential tools to detect and evaluate the flash droughts.

The present study investigates the flash droughts across India during the period 1979 to 2020. It utilizes the IMDAA dataset (0.12°×0.12°) to develop a pentad-scale SPEI dataset throughout India. The analysis reveals that northern and central states, including Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and eastern Maharashtra, experience comparatively prolonged and severe flash droughts. The spatial evaluation of drought progression is also conducted across multiple agro-climatic zones. We assessed the predictability of flash droughts at a lead time of 7, 14, and 21 days utilizing data-driven frameworks such as LSTM, Transformers, and Informers. The temporal evaluation of prediction performance is done across both monthly and seasonal scales. The findings of the study underscore the need for improving the prediction performance of flash droughts, particularly across regions with high elevation variability. This approach aims to strengthen the nation’s resilience to flash droughts in the face of a changing climate.

How to cite: Pathania, A. and Gupta, V.: Deciphering Flash Droughts in India: Trends, Dynamics, and Prediction Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13154, 2025.

EGU25-13301 | Orals | HS4.2

Application of remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture for anticipating crop production shocks in food-insecure countries  

Shraddhanand Shukla, Frank Davenport, Donghoon Lee, Weston Anderson, Barnali Das, Karyn Tabor, Abheera Hazra, Kim Slinski, Amy McNally, Laura Harrison, and Greg Husak

Soil moisture estimates are widely used as indicators of agricultural drought. Despite their ability to signal trends in vegetative water content months before vegetation greenness responses, their direct application in operational crop yield forecasting and the early anticipation of production shocks remains limited. Early warning of crop production shocks is a critical component of food insecurity scenario generation process. Previous research in southern Africa demonstrated promising skill in crop yield forecasting when using modeled soil moisture products as predictors, outperforming traditional indicators such as December-to-February ENSO. Similarly, a study in East Africa identified when and where soil moisture outperforms other Earth observations as a predictor of crop yield. Building on this foundation, we present a comprehensive investigation into the applicability of soil moisture products for sub-national crop yield forecasting across several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis evaluates the performance of various soil moisture datasets, including remotely sensed (e.g., ESA-CCI), modeled (e.g., FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System), and data-assimilated (e.g., Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model) products, in within-season crop yield forecasts. We focus on three key areas: 1. The comparative value of remotely sensed surface soil moisture relative to root zone soil moisture from modeled and data-assimilated products. 2. The effectiveness of remotely sensed soil moisture in irrigated regions, where it may better capture agricultural drought than rainfall or modeled products. 3. The influence of anomalous soil moisture conditions at the onset of growing seasons, such as delayed rains or sequential droughts. Finally, we diagnose the sources of performance differences between remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture as predictors of crop yields. Our findings highlight the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture products as effective predictors for operational crop yield forecasting. 

How to cite: Shukla, S., Davenport, F., Lee, D., Anderson, W., Das, B., Tabor, K., Hazra, A., Slinski, K., McNally, A., Harrison, L., and Husak, G.: Application of remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture for anticipating crop production shocks in food-insecure countries , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13301, 2025.

EGU25-13570 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

A joint spatio-temporal characterization of the major meteorological droughts in Europe 

Fabiola Banfi, Carlo De Michele, and Carmelo Cammalleri

Drought can be considered the most severe and the most complex weather-related natural hazard. With impacts that may extend to large areas and log time spans, and the capability to occur in all climatic zones, drought is the first hazard for the number of people affected. Due to the transboundary nature of drought events, an effective monitoring of their evolution must properly account for the full spatio-temporal structure. This characterization is a key step for a proper attribution of the related impacts. In addition, understanding common features in major droughts is of utmost importance for both monitoring and forecasting activities. In this work, we introduce a set of tools used to summarize the main properties of major droughts in Europe, with the goal of subdividing the events in groups characterized by similar properties. We used a European dataset of meteorological droughts (from 1981 to 2020) that detects events based on the Standardized Precipitation Index using an event-oriented spatio-temporal clustering algorithm. Spatio-temporal characteristics of major droughts were summarized using Normalized Area - Time Accumulation curves to follow their expansion/contraction as a function of time and analyzing the main direction of expansion of the events. A clustering algorithm was applied to classify events. We identified three groups: a first group comprised of warm-season events, characterized by a longer duration, a shorter early growing phase, and a longer exhaustion phase; a second group, less numerous, comprised by droughts occurring during the cold season, that tend to have a shorter duration, a longer early growing phase and a shorter exhaustion phase; and a third group comprised of droughts occurring across the two periods. This last class is characterized by a longer duration and a high variability in most of the other characteristics.

How to cite: Banfi, F., De Michele, C., and Cammalleri, C.: A joint spatio-temporal characterization of the major meteorological droughts in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13570, 2025.

EGU25-13898 | Posters on site | HS4.2

Investigating groundwater response to meteorological and agricultural drought under increased water demand: insights from a Mediterranean coastal aquifer using numerical modeling 

Harris Vangelis, George Kopsiaftis, Dimitris Tigkas, Ioannis M. Kourtis, and Vasileios Christelis

Meteorological drought is a natural phenomenon caused mainly by a prolonged precipitation deficiency, that may propagate to the surface and groundwater systems leading to the manifestation of hydrological drought events. The impacts of drought are often less visible in the subsurface due to sparse observational records while the response of groundwater to weather variability depends on antecedent groundwater levels and hydraulic and storage properties of the aquifer system. Although groundwater is often the only resilient water resource in arid and semi-arid areas, a notable decline in groundwater levels can be difficult to manage.

There is increasing evidence that coastal groundwater, which serves as the main water source for various needs (urban water supply, agriculture, etc.), is at even greater risk in semi-arid areas where the quality and quantity of fresh water stored in aquifers is threatened by seawater intrusion. It is important to note that, in these islands, periods of low recharge coincide with peak water consumption, which in turn leads to overexploitation of the aquifers to meet the increased water demands.

To that end, the present study focuses on the assessment of the complex relationship between drought conditions and coastal groundwater, emphasizing on its multidimensional nature which involves the consideration of several factors, such as pumping regimes, land use, water demands, subsurface heterogeneity, geomorphology of the study area and hydraulic connection to the sea. The principal goal is to identify critical features through a comprehensive modeling approach using distributed numerical modelling and easily accessible data and tools, providing the means for informed water management, especially in ungauged coastal aquifers.

The study analysed the case of a coastal aquifer located in the Greek island Kalymnos in the Aegean Sea for a period of 73 years (1950-2022). The primary source of groundwater in the study area is a calcareous unconfined coastal aquifer. A transient three-dimensional variable-density flow and salt transport numerical model was developed using SEAWAT code. Time-varying recharge input, was simulated with the ZOODRM model, a distributed recharge model. The pumping regimes were calculated based on both urban and agricultural water demands. Three drought indices for various timescales were employed for assessing drought evolution throughout the study period. That is, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) indicating the meteorological conditions, the Effective RDI (eRDI) and the Agricultural Standardized Precipitation Index (aSPI). The last two were utilised for identifying the agricultural drought conditions. The MH-data software was used for managing the meteorological input data (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) that were obtained from the ERA5-Land database and the DrinC software was used for the drought analysis.

The outcomes of the study identified significant correlations between the freshwater volume and the drought indices, indicating the response of the aquifer to meteorological and agricultural drought. The time-varying pumping and recharge, along with the corresponding meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, also provide insights on water availability and potential water depletion during drought episodes. The proposed workflow may serve as an effective and cost-efficient strategy that may be utilized in areas with limited field data.

How to cite: Vangelis, H., Kopsiaftis, G., Tigkas, D., Kourtis, I. M., and Christelis, V.: Investigating groundwater response to meteorological and agricultural drought under increased water demand: insights from a Mediterranean coastal aquifer using numerical modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13898, 2025.

EGU25-14058 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Future Drought projections in a fragile island system: The case of Rapa Nui. 

Dayna Sheldon, Javiera Aliaga, Eduardo Muñoz, Ignacio Toro, and Ximena Vargas

Rapa Nui Island, is the most isolated inhabited place in the world and a popular tourist destination, like other island communities located in the Pacific Ocean. This unique system, which lacks rivers or permanent surface watercourses, is particularly vulnerable to climatic variations that could affect groundwater recharge, which is their main source of freshwater. The increase in water consumption, along with predictions of less precipitation and higher temperatures due to climate change, underscores the need to better understand future drought conditions on Rapa Nui Island. 

Here, we selected and statistically downscale and bias-corrected 11 CMIP5 and 3 CMIP6 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, to study the projections of droughts events in Rapa Nui until the end of the century. To do so, we analyze severe and extreme droughts using the SPI(12) and SPEI(12) indexes estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) with the Thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods. 

Our results indicate a sustained decrease in precipitation, an increase in temperature, and a higher frequency of drought events with longer durations and greater intensities compared to historical climatological periods (1970-2014). Specifically, by the end of the century, average annual precipitation is projected to decrease by more than 20% (29% under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario compared to 24% under RCP 8.5), while the mean temperature is expected to increase by approximately 2°C for each scenario. Regarding extreme droughts, projections based on the SSP 5-8.5 result in more adverse outcomes, particularly in the far future (2065–2100). For the SPI index, extreme drought frequencies under this scenario are projected to exceed historical frequencies by 61% in the distant future, and by 23% compared to those projected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. 

We conclude that the analysis of drought is highly dependent on the method used to estimate PET. For instance, the projected results using the Thornthwaite method show differences exceeding 17% in the frequencies of extreme droughts by the end of the century compared to the Hargreaves method. Both scenarios project more intense and prolonged droughts than those experienced in the past, emphasizing the urgency of investigating and implementing measures to ensure the population's water supply security and the preservation of the island's biodiversity, always integrating the opinions and respecting the culture of the Rapa Nui people. 

Finally, these results highlight the importance of studying representative values of this variable during the historical period and underscore the relevance of adopting measures to mitigate climate risks associated with drought events in fragile systems such as that of Rapa Nui.  

How to cite: Sheldon, D., Aliaga, J., Muñoz, E., Toro, I., and Vargas, X.: Future Drought projections in a fragile island system: The case of Rapa Nui., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14058, 2025.

EGU25-14097 | Posters on site | HS4.2

Unified Guidelines for Drought Condition Monitoring in Local Dams and Rivers in South Korea 

Tae-Woong Kim, Min Ji Kim, Joo Heon Lee, and Hyun Han Kwon

Drought assessment is a critical component of water resource management, ensuring the stability of water supplies and minimizing the impacts of droughts. Focusing on percentile-based criteria and available water supply duration, the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) employs a five-tiered drought assessment ranging from abnormally dry conditions (D0) to exceptional drought (D4), with percentiles delineating each stage. Camrose City in Canada monitors drought conditions in four stages: watch, warning, critical, and emergency based on the number of days water can be supplied to the population. These monitoring schemes highlight the importance of hydrological and statistical data in identifying drought conditions and guiding proactive responses.

Considering the practices of drought monitoring in Building on these international practices, this study proposes a unified guideline for drought condition monitoring schemes for dams and rivers in South Korea. The guideline incorporates percentile thresholds (30%, 20%, 10%, 5%) for indicators such as reservoir storage rates and river levels. For reservoir management, thresholds are set based on water availability durations (90, 60, 30, 20 days).

The drought monitoring guideline is further validated using two methods for a testbed, the Dongbok Dam; the supply-based criteria defined thresholds as 25.6-17.1-8.5-5.7 million m³ for reservoir volume and 28-19-9-6% for reservoir rates. Alternatively, the percentile-based method yielded thresholds of 52.8-44.2-32.3-25.4%. The Pyeongchang River was selected as a representative case for rivers where supply-based criteria are inapplicable. The 10-day percentile-based criteria showed higher thresholds during the flood season (April–September) and lower thresholds during the non-flood season (October–February).

This research emphasizes integrating global best practices into localized drought monitoring systems. By adopting standardized and scientifically robust methods, water resource managers can improve resilience against droughts and ensure sustainable water availability for future generations.

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the 2023-2024 K-water through research on improving dam operation strategies to respond to drought, funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(grant number).

How to cite: Kim, T.-W., Kim, M. J., Lee, J. H., and Kwon, H. H.: Unified Guidelines for Drought Condition Monitoring in Local Dams and Rivers in South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14097, 2025.

The intensification of climate change has exacerbated the frequency and severity of extreme hydrological events, particularly droughts, posing critical challenges to global water resource management. The Zhuoshui River Basin, as a vital water supply region in Taiwan, has recently faced increasing extremes in rainfall and drought, highlighting the urgent need for effective management strategies. To address these challenges, this study develops a deep learning-based model for long-term monthly river flow prediction, emphasizing its significance in supporting water resource management and decision-making under worsening drought conditions.

Using historical hydrological data, the model was trained and optimized with input variables such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels to explore their interactions with river flow and assess their influence on predictive performance. Future climate scenarios provided by the IPCC AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report) were employed to project river flow and groundwater levels over the next 80 years, offering insights into potential drought risks.

By combining the predicted river flow and groundwater levels with established drought assessment indices, the study quantifies drought severity and provides a scientific foundation for developing sustainable water resource management strategies in the Zhuoshui River Basin under the impact of climate change.

Keywords: Long-term streamflow forecasting, Deep learning, Drought Risk, Climate Change

How to cite: Chen, Z. and Chang, L.-C.: Enhancing Long-Term River Flow Prediction for Effective Water Resource Management under Intensifying Drought Risks and Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14667, 2025.

EGU25-14683 | Posters on site | HS4.2

Future Evolution and Sources of Uncertainty in Global Drought Recovery Probabilities 

Fei Yuan and Limin Zhang

Understanding how climate change affects the soil moisture drought recovery process is a priority to guide adaptation planning in drought management and to promote climate-resilient agriculture. A future climate scenario analysis framework was developed to project the spatiotemporal trends of global soil moisture drought and assess future changes in extreme drought recovery probabilities relative to the baseline period. Additionally, the two-factor analysis of variance approach was conducted to quantify the contributions of different uncertainty sources in climate change projections. The latest Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP 3b) simulations indicate that global soil moisture droughts will increase in frequency, extent, and intensity in the future. The strongest, most robust increases were projected in Amazon, central and southern Europe, southern Africa, southern China, southeastern Asia, and Oceania. Although a reduction in drought magnitude was projected in the northern high-latitudes, the recovery time and the precipitation required to terminate a drought were anticipated to increase compared to the baseline period. Compared to the baseline period, approximately 57.5% of global regions are projected to experience a decline in drought recovery probability during crop growing seasons under SSP1-2.6 scenario, particularly in northern North America, northern Europe, northwestern Asia, western Central Africa, the central Amazon basin, and southern Australia. Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, this proportion will rise to 61.3% and 60.3%, respectively. The ANOVA-based assessment reveals that climate model is the dominant uncertainty source, accounting for approximately 59.5%–66.8% of the total variance. Additionally, the contributions of emission scenarios and their interactions increase as drought recovery time lengthens, particularly in Southern Northern America, Central Africa, Southern Asia, Southern South America, Southern Africa and Oceania. Although future drought recovery probability projections are associated with non-negligible uncertainties, the increasingly difficult to recover from extreme droughts at the global scale highlights the importance of taking certain measures to mitigate drought risks.

How to cite: Yuan, F. and Zhang, L.: Future Evolution and Sources of Uncertainty in Global Drought Recovery Probabilities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14683, 2025.

EGU25-14752 | Posters on site | HS4.2

Spatial and Temporal Drought Patterns Derived from High-Resolution Daily SPI and SPEI Datasets 

Olivier Prat, David Coates, Iype Eldho, Scott Wilkins, Denis Willett, Ronald Leeper, Brian Nelson, Michael Shaw, and Steve Ansari

A suite of gridded daily satellite (CMORPH, IMERG) and in-situ (NClimGrid) precipitation datasets are used to compute a near-real time standardized precipitation index (SPI) over various time scales (from 1-month to 36-month). Over CONUS, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is also computed using daily potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from NClimGrid daily temperature estimates. The drought indices: CMORPH-SPI (global; 1998-present; 0.25x0.25deg.), IMERG-SPI (global; 2000-present; 0.1x0.1deg.), NClimGrid-SPI and NClimGrid-SPEI (CONUS; 1951-present; 0.05x0.05deg.) are used to perform a historical analysis of drought events and derive long-term statistics on drought occurrences, duration, and severity at the local, national, regional, and global scales. The impact of precipitation and temperature (i.e., PET) changes is assessed by considering several reference periods such as different durations (i.e., from a decade to the full period of record) and different time frames (i.e., 1961-1990, 1971-2000, etc.). The evolution of the distribution parameters (Gamma, Pearson III) computed for an ensemble of reference periods allows to account for long-term change in temperature and precipitation patterns. In addition to the drought indices (SPI, SPEI), the year-to-date rainfall deficit is estimated with respect to drought classification (abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, exceptional) and the impact of isolated or multi-day rainfall events on drought conditions is evaluated. This work provides a better understanding of drought propagation across a continuum of accumulation scales and allows to estimate the likelihood of any deviations from normal rainfall conditions to evolve into meteorological drought.

How to cite: Prat, O., Coates, D., Eldho, I., Wilkins, S., Willett, D., Leeper, R., Nelson, B., Shaw, M., and Ansari, S.: Spatial and Temporal Drought Patterns Derived from High-Resolution Daily SPI and SPEI Datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14752, 2025.

EGU25-15105 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): recent tendencies, existing tools and regional initiatives 

Mirjana Radulović, Gordan Mimić, Maksim Kharlamov, and Maria Kireeva

A broad variety of research indicates that climate change has intensified and extended meteorological droughts across parts of Europe, with southern European regions experiencing particularly severe impacts (IPCC, 2012). The majority of SEE countries are experiencing an increase in drought severity and frequency according to a broad plethora of research. The most commonly used drought indicators by regional experts are meteorological drought indexes such as SPI, SPEI, and PDSI, as well as more specific parameters like the maximum seasonal dry spell (DS), SGI, specific discharge and SRI indexes, vegetation stress parameters. Impact-based assessments, including yield reduction, crop damage, and total economic loss, are also employed. In general, most results are coherent in their conclusions and indicate negative trends, showing an increase in aridity associated with both temperature increases and a lack of precipitation, except in some subregions in Croatia and Bulgaria.

The number of publications devoted to droughts varies greatly by year and country. The maximum publication activity on drought index dynamics was reached in the late 2010s. Over the last five years, there has been a shift to impact-based approaches by major crop types. Serbia, Slovenia, and Romania have had the highest number of publications focused on droughts across the SEE region during the last 15 years, covering all three types of droughts (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) not only by calculated indexes but also by impacts. The most underrepresented countries are Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro. In this overview, an average area under the “alert” class of CDI was calculated for each SEE country for 2012-2024 to illustrate the general picture. The country-scale signatures show major familiarity in drought-prone areas over the period. After the catastrophic drought in 2012, followed by a drop and plateau (until 2018), steady growth in the area under “alert” is observed, reaching 8-25% in 2023-2024.

To enhance the development and support of drought risk management tools and policies, DMCSEE was launched in 2009. Since 2010, regional bulletins have been issued on a monthly basis. To mitigate drought impacts and increase awareness, national drought monitors are urgently needed in the region due to the major role of agriculture and significant vulnerability. However, dynamically updated Drought Monitors and national Drought Early Warning Systems (EWS) are currently under development in Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, and Romania. The operational stage has been achieved at the national level only in Croatia and partly in Romania and Slovenia. An AI-driven and impact-based EWS with medium-range lag time is a promising solution for dynamically updated platforms at the regional scale.

How to cite: Radulović, M., Mimić, G., Kharlamov, M., and Kireeva, M.: Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): recent tendencies, existing tools and regional initiatives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15105, 2025.

EGU25-16877 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.2

Global-scale spatiotemporal clustering of multivariate drought events using 3D DBSCAN 

Vít Šťovíček, Martin Hanel, Rohini Kumar, Vojtěch Moravec, Yannis Markonis, Carmelo Cammalleri, Jan Řehoř, Miroslav Trnka, and Oldřich Rakovec

Drought is one of the most significant natural hazards, impacting ecosystems, water resources, and human livelihoods worldwide. Traditional drought analysis often focuses on specific types or limited geographical regions, leaving a critical gap in understanding the global evolution and interconnection of drought events across different timescales and dimensions.
This study aims to address this gap by employing DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, e.g., Camalieri and Toreti, 2023) algorithm to identify, and quantify diverse characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts on a global scale. Specifically, we focus on the sensitivity of the DBCAN parameters, which are crucial for distinguishing meaningful drought clusters from noise in large, complex datasets. Our objective is to develop and validate a robust framework for detecting and assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in different compartments of hydrological cycle, enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of entire drought dynamics.
Using a global hydrological dataset forced with ERA5 meteorologic dataset (Řehoř et al, 2024), we implement a 3D DBSCAN method, integrating spatial and temporal dimensions. The dataset provides key outputs of a hydrological model, including soil moisture, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and discharge, which are used to calculate drought metrics and identify large clusters with a total area exceeding 150,000 km² and lasting at least 30 days. At this stage, we work with historical data from 1980 to 2022, providing a robust platform to assess spatiotemporal drought patterns. This historical dataset will serve as a foundation for a future comparison with projected climate scenarios from 2025 to the end of the 21st century, enabling insights into potential changes in drought characteristics.
Our findings reveal that 3D DBSCAN is highly effective in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of drought events, with parameter sensitivity playing a pivotal role in cluster detection. Small adjustments of algorithm’s inputs significantly influence the size, shape, and distribution of clusters, highlighting the need for careful calibration. This framework provides new insights into the relationships between drought events across regions and temporal scales, highlighting their potential to inform water resource management and climate adaptation strategies.


Cammalleri, C. and Toreti, A., 2023. A generalized density-based algorithm for the spatiotemporal tracking of drought events. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(3), pp.537-548.
Řehoř, J., Brázdil, R., Rakovec, O., Hanel, M., Fischer, M., Kumar, R., Balek, J., Poděbradská, M., Moravec, V., Samaniego, L. and Trnka, M., 2024. Global catalog of soil moisture droughts over the past four decades. EGUsphere, 2024, pp.1-34.


We acknowledge the Czech Science Foundation grant 23-08056S.

How to cite: Šťovíček, V., Hanel, M., Kumar, R., Moravec, V., Markonis, Y., Cammalleri, C., Řehoř, J., Trnka, M., and Rakovec, O.: Global-scale spatiotemporal clustering of multivariate drought events using 3D DBSCAN, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16877, 2025.

EGU25-17593 | Posters on site | HS4.2

Machine Learning Framework for Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Brazilian Basins with Diverse Climates 

Luz Adriana Cuartas, Amir Naghabi, Gholamreza Nikravesh, Juliana A. Campos, Alireza Taheri Dehkordi, Kourosh Ahmadi, Thais Fujita, Alfonso Senatore, Giuseppe Mendicino, and Cintia B. Uvo

Drought is a multifaceted natural hazard characterized by complex mechanisms, diverse contributing factors, and slow onset, affecting food, water, energy, and ecosystem security. Brazil, like many regions worldwide, has faced significant drought challenges over the past decade, impacting basins that play a critical role in water supply, hydropower generation, and agriculture. This study explores the application of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and Two-variate Standardized Index (TSI) to forecast drought conditions at 3- and 6-month time scales.

In this study we employ Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), using as predictors univariate indices and climate indices representing climate modes of variability that influence Brazil's precipitation and drought regimes. Our methodology includes feature selection through Recursive Feature Elimination, lagged correlations, and statistical evaluation using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R²).

Results demonstrate that both SVR and ANN models effectively predict drought conditions, with R² varying between 0.71 and 0.91, MRS less than 0.2 and MAE not exceeding 0.35, for key indices at 3- and 6-months lags. The strong predictive performance underscores the potential of ML to address challenges in drought forecasting, enabling proactive water resource management and mitigation in regions vulnerable to hydrometeorological extremes.

How to cite: Cuartas, L. A., Naghabi, A., Nikravesh, G., Campos, J. A., Taheri Dehkordi, A., Ahmadi, K., Fujita, T., Senatore, A., Mendicino, G., and Uvo, C. B.: Machine Learning Framework for Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Brazilian Basins with Diverse Climates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17593, 2025.

EGU25-18443 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Sustainability of water use in urban green spaces: a multi-city analysis in developing countries 

Arianna Tolazzi, Nikolas Galli, Maria Cristina Rulli, and Chiara Corbari

Urban growth is one of the main drivers of global change, with urban population expected to grow from 56% of the world total (2020) to 70% by 2050, mainly in less developed regions. Over the past two decades, more than 80 major metropolises have faced extreme drought and water shortages, with future projections outlining an increasing risk of water crises. In this context, the sustainable management of urban water resources emerges as a critical challenge.  While studies on water scarcity have traditionally focused on agriculture, given its significant impact, urban systems—despite being resource-intensive—receive comparatively less attention. Moreover, most intra-urban studies are limited to specific case studies, lacking a comprehensive and scalable framework for cross-city comparisons.

This work aims to fill this gap, integrating a socio-economic framework with an engineering one to explore the sustainability of water use in urban green spaces. We perform the analysis on 20 cities with populations exceeding one million, located in developing countries, characterized by socio-economic disparities and different climatic conditions (aridity, temperatures, rainfall). Using the "Degree of Urbanization" approach, we define urban system boundaries to ensure comparability across cities. Within these boundaries, we map urban green spaces, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess their extent and condition and quantify their green and blue water demand. We combine these data with those relating to water demand for domestic use and assess their overall impact on urban water scarcity. Our domestic water demand data is derived from a global raster dataset (50 km resolution) for the period 2015–2019. We apply a statistical downscaling technique to achieve a finer 2 km resolution, enabling intra-urban analyses. The downscaling process models the relationship between domestic water demand and city-specific indicators, such as population density, relative wealth indices, and monthly climate parameters.

The ultimate goal is to develop an adaptable model to assess the spatial distribution of water sustainability in urban environments. By integrating socio-economic and environmental factors, this research provides new insights into the role of urban green spaces in shaping water demand and urban water scarcity. In a context where climate change and urbanization are intensifying pressures on water resources, this research contributes to a more informed and equitable management of urban water systems.

How to cite: Tolazzi, A., Galli, N., Rulli, M. C., and Corbari, C.: Sustainability of water use in urban green spaces: a multi-city analysis in developing countries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18443, 2025.

EGU25-18766 | ECS | Orals | HS4.2

Impact of reservoir network on propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in a semi-arid basin of India 

Ajay Gupta, Manoj Kumar Jain, Rajendra Prasad Pandey, and David M. Hannah

Reservoirs play an important role in mitigating ill effects of drought. There could however be both desirable and undesirable effects of reservoirs on the water cycle. Many studies have explored the temporal aspects such as propagation rate and response time of drought propagation, yet not much has been revealed about the spatial characteristics of drought propagation. The present study aims to quantify the effects of reservoir networks on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought via agricultural and reservoir drought, considering 7 major reservoirs in the semi-arid Krishna River Basin of India using 19 years of data from 2000 to 2019. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), Standardized Reservoir Storage Index (SRSI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) representing meteorological, agricultural, reservoir and hydrological drought, respectively, were estimated at 1 and 3-months and at a threshold value of 0. The spatial water distribution is described using the ‘downstreamness concept’, and the upstream-downstream drought propagation were closely investigated. The results indicate that the meteorological drought propagates to agricultural and reservoir drought with drought lengthening. Whereas the hydrological drought propagation from upstream to downstream is attributed mainly to drought severity. Usually, the mild and moderate upstream reservoir droughts do not propagate to the downstream reservoirs, but severe drought propagates to downstream reservoirs with prolongation of duration and increase in severity. During drought propagation from upstream to downstream, the downstreamness of stored volume (Dsv) decreases from above the downstreamness of storage capacity (Dsc) at the start, indicating more water in the downstream reservoir, to below Dsc at the end, indicating more water in the upstream reservoir. Importantly, the findings from the study provides essential insights for implications for policymakers for river-basin scale water resource management and drought mitigation considering upstream–downstream drought propagation dynamics.

Keywords: Drought Propagation, Meteorological to Hydrological Drought, Downstreamness, Upstream-Downstream.

How to cite: Gupta, A., Jain, M. K., Pandey, R. P., and Hannah, D. M.: Impact of reservoir network on propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in a semi-arid basin of India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18766, 2025.

EGU25-20588 | Orals | HS4.2

Shifts in water supply and demand shape land cover change across Chile 

Francisco Zambrano, Anton Vrieling, Francisco Meza, Iongel Duran-Llacer, Francisco Fernández, Alejandro Venegas-González, Nicolas Raab, and Dylan Craven

Globally, droughts are becoming longer, more frequent, and more severe, and their impacts are multidimensional. These impacts typically extend beyond the water balance, as long-term, cumulative changes in the water balance can lead to regime shifts in land cover. Here, we assess the effects of temporal changes in water supply and demand over multiple time scales on vegetation productivity and land cover changes in continental Chile, which has experienced a severe drought since 2010. Across most of continental Chile, we observed a persistent negative trend in water supply and a positive trend in atmospheric water demand since 2000. However, in water-limited ecoregions, we have observed a negative temporal trend in the water demand of vegetation, which intensified over longer time scales. This long-term decrease in water availability and the shift in water demand have led to a decrease in vegetation productivity, especially for the Chilean Matorral and the Valdivian temperate forest ecoregions. We found that this decrease is primarily associated with drought indices associated with soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration at time scales of up to 12 months. Further, our results indicate that drought intensity explains up to 78% of temporal changes in the area of shrublands and 40% of the area of forests across all ecoregions, while the burned area explained 70% of the temporal changes in the area of croplands.  Our results suggest that the impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems will extend to drought-tolerant vegetation types, necessitating the development of context-specific adaptation strategies for agriculture, biodiversity conservation and natural resource management. 

How to cite: Zambrano, F., Vrieling, A., Meza, F., Duran-Llacer, I., Fernández, F., Venegas-González, A., Raab, N., and Craven, D.: Shifts in water supply and demand shape land cover change across Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20588, 2025.

EGU25-639 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.3

A novel error correction modelling framework for reducing prediction uncertainty in reservoir levels for operational control 

Abhinanda Roy, Sandhya Patidar, Adebayo J. Adeloye, and Kasiapillai S Kasiviswanathan

Accurate reservoir level prediction is vital for effective reservoir operation. While an overprediction of the reservoir levels results in the release of excess water than required, an underestimation leads to insufficient water supply. This affects the multiple purposes served by the reservoir, such as domestic and municipal water supply, irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control. However, predicting reservoir levels accurately is complex and challenging owing to the errors arising from the hydrological and routing models. This affects the accuracy of the predicted reservoir levels and incorporates uncertainty. Thus, it is vital to explore measures to reduce the error in the predicted reservoir levels to improve their reliability. The study thus proposes a novel error correction modelling framework for reducing the prediction uncertainty in the reservoir levels. For this endeavor, the state of the art of machine learning models is exploited. The proposed framework integrates an optimization technique with machine learning models to reduce the error in the predicted reservoir levels. The framework was tested on the Pong reservoir, India, and evaluated using several performance indices including the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage of coverage (POC). The evaluation revealed improvements in accuracy and a reduction in uncertainty of predicted reservoir levels. For example, the NRMSE of the predicted reservoir levels improved from 0.132% to 0.002% and 0.416% to 0.397% during calibration and validation respectively, while the percentage of coverage improved from 45% to 77.5% (calibration) and from 27.27% to 36.36% (validation). The framework thus has the potential to improve reservoir operational control and associated decision-making.  

How to cite: Roy, A., Patidar, S., J. Adeloye, A., and Kasiviswanathan, K. S.: A novel error correction modelling framework for reducing prediction uncertainty in reservoir levels for operational control, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-639, 2025.

EGU25-835 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.3

Assessing the impact on Future Discharge on Gandak River Basin Using SWAT Model and Machine Learning Techniques 

Arushi Jha, Joshal Kumar Bansal, and Naresh Chandra Gupta

The assessment of future discharge impacts on the Gandak River Basin is crucial for understanding potential climate change effects and planning effective water resource management. This study employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model integrated with machine learning techniques to evaluate and predict the future discharge patterns in the basin. The Gandak River Basin, a significant tributary of the Ganges, plays a vital role in regional agriculture, hydropower, and ecosystem services, making it imperative to understand the potential changes in its hydrological dynamics. The SWAT model, a comprehensive, semi-distributed hydrological model, simulates the effects of land management practices, climate variability, and water management strategies on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds. SWAT’s capability to incorporate various climatic inputs, land use, soil properties, and topography enables it to simulate hydrological processes with high accuracy. However, the complexity and non-linearity of hydrological processes often necessitate the incorporation of advanced data-driven techniques to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness. In this study, machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Neural Networks, are integrated with SWAT to improve the model’s predictive performance. These algorithms are trained on historical discharge data, climate variables, and SWAT-simulated outputs to capture the non-linear relationships and complex interactions within the hydrological system. The hybrid model leverages the strengths of both physically-based and data-driven approaches, providing a more comprehensive understanding of the future discharge scenarios under various climate change projections. The research involves hbias-correcting climate projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to derive high-resolution climate inputs for the SWAT model. Scenarios based on Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) are employed to simulate future climatic conditions. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated using observed discharge data from the Gandak River Basin, ensuring the reliability of the simulations. Subsequently, the machine learning models are trained on the SWAT outputs and historical data, creating an ensemble approach to predict future discharge. Results indicate significant variability in future discharge patterns under different climate scenarios. The integrated SWAT and machine learning model captures the seasonal and inter-annual variability in discharge more accurately than the standalone SWAT model. The findings suggest potential increases in peak discharge events during the monsoon season, with implications for flood risk management. Conversely, reduced discharge during the dry season could impact water availability for agriculture and domestic use, necessitating adaptive water management strategies. The study highlights the importance of combining physically-based hydrological models with machine learning techniques to enhance the prediction of hydrological responses to climate change. The integrated approach provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the Gandak River Basin, aiding in the development of sustainable water resource management plans to mitigate the adverse impacts of future climate variability. This research underscores the need for continuous monitoring, adaptive management, and the incorporation of advanced modeling techniques to address the complexities of climate change impacts on river basins.

How to cite: Jha, A., Bansal, J. K., and Gupta, N. C.: Assessing the impact on Future Discharge on Gandak River Basin Using SWAT Model and Machine Learning Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-835, 2025.

EGU25-863 | ECS | Orals | HS4.3 | Highlight

A user-relevant approach to the verification of flood forecasts 

Moemen Alwahshat, Claudia Bertini, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Grey Nearing

Implementing flood forecasting models and early warning systems in decision-making can substantially reduce the impacts of floods and other natural hazards and provide more time for warnings and anticipatory action. Verification of flood forecasts is critical in providing emergency managers with practical information about the forecasts’ performance. However, incorporating forecasts in decision-making and warning applications demands a user-relevant categorical verification approach that covers practical aspects of operational systems. In this regard, standard scientific practice for verification may not match the forecast users’ experience or be suitable for all end users. It creates several challenges in categorical verification, including the vague definitions of the 2×2 contingency table categories, as they do not consider the slightly misaligned timing of events. Another challenge is the counting method of the categories, where different counting methods, based on a regular time-step basis, or based on individual events, may lead to different conclusions, and therefore, deliver different performance insights and value for forecast users. This research addresses these challenges, proposing a user-relevant verification approach, and examining the corresponding effects on the performance quality and economic value of flood forecasts. Two global forecasting models –Google AI model and GloFAS– are verified with the proposed approach in the African continent. Our results show a consistent pattern of decrease in performance when considering a user-relevant approach in comparison with standard verification practice. These findings emphasize a gap between standard and user-tailored verification, and the need for user-relevant verification of other flood forecasting systems, with the consideration of implementing additional aspects of operational systems.

How to cite: Alwahshat, M., Bertini, C., van Andel, S. J., and Nearing, G.: A user-relevant approach to the verification of flood forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-863, 2025.

EGU25-2946 | Posters on site | HS4.3

Towards achieving reliable probabilistic hydrological predictions at the hourly scale 

Cristina Prieto, Dmitri Kavetski, Fabrizio Fenicia, James Kirchner, and César Álvarez

Floods are among Earth's most widespread, frequent, and destructive natural hazards. In highly responsive
catchments, daily streamflow predictions will underestimate flood hazards. For example, peak flows occurring
on sub-daily timescales caused hundreds of fatalities and billions of Euros in damages in the devastating floods
in Germany in 2021 and Spain in 2024. Particularly in small and mesoscale catchments: 1) peak flows may
last only a few hours, so forecasts of daily flows can greatly underestimate flood peaks ; 2) A landscape's
responsiveness to precipitation depends critically on how wet it is; thus, it is essential to accurately model the
wetting and drying of the catchment, and hourly streamflow is needed to capture and understand the
hydrological processes in the rising limb of the hydrograph; and 3) the dominant processes affecting shortterm
predictions are not necessarily the same as those affecting streamflow at longer time scales. For example,
over longer time scales, predictions become more a question of mass balance, rather than dynamics and routing,
while the opposite is true for short-term predictions.


Thus, reliably assessing flood hazards requires understanding hydrologic responses at hourly time scales. But
paradoxically, hourly predictions have received relatively less focus. In this work we use a conceptual
hydrological model to obtain deterministic hourly predictions and estimate its uncertainty using a residual error
model. Case study catchments include hydrologically diverse catchments in Europe and the USA. We consider
bias, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation by employing the Box-Cox transformation, autoregressive (AR)
and moving average models (ARMA) models. The log transformation was in general the most recommended
option, in combination with an AR3 model.


This work advances streamflow prediction by developing statistically rigorous methods for postprocessing the
residuals of conceptual models at the hourly time scale.

How to cite: Prieto, C., Kavetski, D., Fenicia, F., Kirchner, J., and Álvarez, C.: Towards achieving reliable probabilistic hydrological predictions at the hourly scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2946, 2025.

EGU25-3807 | Posters on site | HS4.3

Advancing Flood Forecasting in Ireland: Development and Implementation of an Operational Fluvial Forecasting System 

ciaran broderick, matthew roberts, jennifer canavan, and rosemarie lawlor

In response to significant flood events, the Irish Government initiated the development of a national flood forecasting service in 2016. A key milestone in this initiative is the establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) within Met Éireann, which provides critical flood forecasting and advisory services to local authorities and emergency management stakeholders.

Met Éireann is currently advancing an operational fluvial flood forecasting system. The system integrates the HYdrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, with the Delft-FEWS platform. Hosted on Microsoft Azure’s cloud computing service, this system utilizes real-time observational hydrometeorological data and ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts from Met Éireann (Harmonie) and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These ensemble forecasts enable the generation of probabilistic river discharge forecasts at multiple locations with lead times of up to seven days.

This poster highlights the core components of the fluvial forecasting system, detailing the development, calibration, and real-time operational workflow. Additionally, it explores system outputs, the role of ensemble forecasting, and future advancements, including the development of a robust verification system to evaluate forecast performance. This work represents a critical step forward in enhancing Ireland’s resilience to flood risks through robust and actionable forecasting capabilities.

How to cite: broderick, C., roberts, M., canavan, J., and lawlor, R.: Advancing Flood Forecasting in Ireland: Development and Implementation of an Operational Fluvial Forecasting System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3807, 2025.

EGU25-5312 | Posters on site | HS4.3

Integrating Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System and Optimization for Limiting Downstream Flood Risk in Dam Operations 

Tze Ling Seline Ng, David Robertson, and James Bennett

Advanced Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPSs) offer significant potential to enhance real-time water management by providing probabilistic ensemble water forecasts that can help dam operators better anticipate and mitigate risks. However, fully utilizing HEPS forecasts in real-time decision-making presents major challenges. To address this for dam operations, we developed an integrated HEPS-optimization program to determine the required dam releases to meet a downstream target flow, considering short-term ensemble tributary inflow forecasts. We specially designed the program to have the ability to explicitly limit downstream flood risk through chance constraints. This ability is highly desirable for more effective risk-based operations but is lacking in the large majority of existing methods. A complicating factor however was that the ensemble nature of the tributary inflow forecasts necessitated formulating the chance constraints as discontinuous mixed-integer equations, which makes the problem nondeterministic polynomial-time hard. Thus, to solve the program, we adopted an innovative approach combining a novel ranking mechanism with nonlinear programming. We favoured this approach over conventional branch-and-bound methods and stochastic dynamic programming as it is considerably faster. We evaluated the viability of our methods using a case study of Hume Dam and Lake Mulwala in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The results demonstrate their efficacy.

 

 

How to cite: Ng, T. L. S., Robertson, D., and Bennett, J.: Integrating Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System and Optimization for Limiting Downstream Flood Risk in Dam Operations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5312, 2025.

EGU25-5861 | Orals | HS4.3

Uncertainty estimation for environmental predictions: the BLUECAT approach and software 

Alberto Montanari and Demetris Koutsoyannis

We propose here a data-driven approach to estimate prediction uncertainty for environmental models. The method is based on the analysis of prediction errors for past observations of the model output. It allows to estimate uncertainty for single model or multimodel predictions. The approach, called BLUECAT, operates by transforming a point prediction provided by deterministic models to a corresponding stochastic formulation, thereby allowing the estimation of a bias corrected expected value along with confidence limits. For multimodel predictions, at each prediction step we select the best performing model according to an uncertainty measure that is used as model selection criterion. We emphasise the value of BLUECAT for gaining an improved understanding of the underlying environmental systems and multimodel combination. Examples of applications are presented, highlighting the benefits attainable through uncertainty driven integration of several prediction models. A publicly available open software for the application of BLUECAT is available along with help facilities.

How to cite: Montanari, A. and Koutsoyannis, D.: Uncertainty estimation for environmental predictions: the BLUECAT approach and software, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5861, 2025.

EGU25-7620 | ECS | Orals | HS4.3

Enhancing Seasonal Flood Forecasts through Spectral Transformation of Hydroclimatic Covariates  

Ze Jiang, Bruno Merz, and Ashish Sharma

Seasonal forecasting of extreme streamflow is essential for effective reservoir management, including optimizing flood retention capacity and preparing for disaster response supplies. This study investigates whether the probabilistic forecasts of seasonal floods can be improved by integrating spectrally transformed hydroclimatic variables from the preceding season. Building on previous research, we proposed the spectral transformation technique to conditional covariates within a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) modeling framework. Using streamflow observations from European catchments provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), we evaluated the role of transformed hydroclimatic covariates using Wavelet System Prediction (WASP) in enhancing seasonal flood forecasting skills. Results reveal that incorporating spectrally transformed covariates leads to improved forecasting skills measured by Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) for a significant proportion of stations across Europe. Northern European catchments exhibit a stronger influence of climate covariates compared to Central and Western Europe. However, when transformed covariates are employed, teleconnections are enhanced across the continent, with notable improvements in the UK, Germany, and France. The hybrid WASP-GEV forecasting framework, integrating spectral transformation, significantly enhanced forecast skills with up to three months lead time. These findings underscore the importance of advanced data transformation and modeling techniques in improving the prediction of hydroclimatic extremes, offering practical implications for water resource management in a changing climate.

How to cite: Jiang, Z., Merz, B., and Sharma, A.: Enhancing Seasonal Flood Forecasts through Spectral Transformation of Hydroclimatic Covariates , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7620, 2025.

Despite advancements in science and technology, predicting and preparing for floods remains challenging due to uncertainties in forecasting the atmospheric and hydrologic processes, limited real-time data, and forecast communication barriers. The Integrating Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA) project is a five-year initiative within the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) that was initiated in 2024. It aims to enhance international research collaboration and scientific knowledge to improve flood hazard predictability and communication strategies for early warnings. The project integrates physical sciences, social sciences, and practitioner perspectives to advance hydro-meteorological forecasting and warning systems in a rapidly changing world.

Here, we present and reflect on the key scientific questions across the seven themes that constitute the implementation plan of the project, which embraces the broader research and operational communities. We focus on the following activities that guide the project’s implementation plan: DEFINE (identifying challenges), CONSTRUCT (gathering case studies), EXPERIMENT (scientific evaluations), and ENGAGE (community collaboration). These activities should bring people with shared interests together to drive transdisciplinary research and enhance flood forecasting systems worldwide for improved early action and decision-making. They call the community to address research needs on flood multi-hazard interdependencies, local vulnerability assessment and response, and climate change impacts on precipitation and hydrological forecasts. International cooperation is key to collaborate on addressing the current challenges of re-envisioning the warning process.

How to cite: Ramos, M.-H., Cattoen-Gilbert, C., and Hogan Carr, R. and the The InPRHA Steering Group: Integrating Prediction of Precipitation and Hydrology for Early Actions (InPRHA): what is still needed to ensure effective delivery and use of probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts from minutes to days ahead?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7983, 2025.

EGU25-8075 | ECS | Orals | HS4.3

Influence of spatial resolution on forecast quality of bias-corrected seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts from a drought management perspective 

Celia Ramos Sánchez, Micha Werner, Lucia De Stefano, and Andrew Schepen

In Spain, there is an interest to incorporate seasonal forecasts into drought management, particularly by integrating the information these provide into the established system of drought indicators that are used to trigger drought management measures and to guide water infrastructure operations. So far, the use of such information to support operational decisions has been limited. Decision makers often quote poor forecast quality as well as information not being available at the scale commensurate to the drought indicators they use as a reason. Provision of forecast data that are credible, and at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to the decision-making process is key to improving uptake. Bias correction of seasonal forecasts plays a fundamental role in improving forecast quality. Several aspects inherent to the bias-correction processes may influence the degree of quality improvement from the perspective of user needs. An aspect that has, however, so far received little attention is the influence of the spatial resolution of both the forecast and the reference datasets that are applied on the quality of the decision-relevant indicators derived from the bias-corrected forecast. 

In this study, we investigate the influence on forecast quality of the spatial resolution of both the forecast and the reference precipitation datasets in the bias correction process. We evaluate quality from the perspective of the indicators used in established operational drought management decisions. A Bayesian Joint Probability approach is used to bias-correct daily precipitation forecasts (ECMWF System 5) for a region within the Spanish Douro River Basin. We consider two resolutions of the forecast product (1° and 0.4°) and apply the bias correction using a historical dataset as a reference at three levels of catchment aggregation, namely, from the finest to the coarsest: independent sub-catchments used for the hydrological modelling of the region in the Douro Basin; aggregated sub-catchments used by the Douro Authority to determine the drought indicators used; and the entire catchment area of the main river in the region. Corrected seasonal precipitation forecasts at these three catchment aggregation scales are used to force a semi-distributed hydrological model to provide drought indicators derived from streamflow. Forecast quality is evaluated through a set of skill scores and user-centred metrics. Results show that the skill and reliability of bias-corrected precipitation forecasts do improve when compared to the raw forecast, with more substantial improvements at the coarser catchment aggregations and temporal resolutions. Results also show little difference in skill between the two resolutions of the forecast product. Furthermore, we show the influence of spatial resolution of both the forecast and the reference dataset on the skill improvement of the hydrological forecasts.  

Results from this study contribute to the understanding and quantification of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts and in bias-correction and post-processing techniques. These findings are also useful in implementing seasonal forecasting and bias correction methods at scales appropriate to decision-making, thereby supporting operational drought management.

How to cite: Ramos Sánchez, C., Werner, M., De Stefano, L., and Schepen, A.: Influence of spatial resolution on forecast quality of bias-corrected seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasts from a drought management perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8075, 2025.

EGU25-10471 | ECS | Orals | HS4.3

Issuing flood warnings in Denmark based on an ensemble of hydrological forecast models. 

Raphaël Payet-Burin, Maggie Henry Madsen, Cecilie Thrysøe, Charlotte Agata Plum, Emma Dybro Thomassen, Grith Martinsen, Jonas Wied Pedersen, Michael Butts, Phillip Aarestrup, and Sanita Dhaubanjar

While Denmark has a long history of coastal floods and a robust storm flood warning system, forecasting fluvial flooding is a new challenge for the country presented by climate change. In 2022 the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) was assigned the responsibility for issuing national flood warnings in Denmark. DMI is mandated to send public flood warnings based on an ensemble of hydrological forecasting models from summer 2025.

This work presents the Danish experience in defining combined model ensemble criteria and warning levels approach for issuing flood warnings.

This study evaluates the criteria for determining the most reliable flood warnings using variants of two physically based classical hydrological models and one data-driven machine learning model. The models included in the ensemble are: (a) a physically based flood forecasting model based on the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model (b) a variant of the HYPE model incorporating data assimilation, (c) a physically based MIKE-SHE model with detailed representation of groundwater, (d) a data-driven Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning model using catchment characteristics and hydrological variables, (d) a hybrid model coupling of the LSTM model to the HYPE model.

While the HYPE and LSTM models have been developed by DMI, the MIKE-SHE model is developed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS).

The performance of the ensemble model criteria is evaluated over the period 2011-2022 for warning stations across Denmark. We define warning levels based on extreme value statistics for observed discharge data to identify several return periods, issuing warnings when forecasted flows exceed these thresholds.

The study assesses the ensemble-based criterion that offers the best performance for issuing flood warnings across Denmark. We evaluate the performance using metrics such as Critical Success Index (CSI) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). Additionally, we examine trade-offs between the Success Rate and False Alarms and analyze spatial trends in model performance. We also reflect on the ease-of-use, scalability across Denmark and efficiency of the warning criteria because the criteria will ultimately be adopted for operational flood warning in real time in Denmark.

We find that it is important to consider the interplay between limitations in individual models in our ensemble and the choice of warning criteria to select a combination that provides a robust basis for issuing useful flood warnings.

Our experience in implementing Denmark's first flood warning system combining ensemble models with warning criteria offers valuable insights for countries where flooding is emerging as a new challenge brought by climate change.

How to cite: Payet-Burin, R., Henry Madsen, M., Thrysøe, C., Agata Plum, C., Dybro Thomassen, E., Martinsen, G., Wied Pedersen, J., Butts, M., Aarestrup, P., and Dhaubanjar, S.: Issuing flood warnings in Denmark based on an ensemble of hydrological forecast models., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10471, 2025.

EGU25-11733 | Orals | HS4.3

Error-correction across gauged and ungauged locations: A data assimilation-inspired approach to post-processing river discharge ensembles 

Gwyneth Matthews, Hannah L. Cloke, Sarah L. Dance, and Christel Prudhomme

Forecasting river discharge is essential for disaster risk reduction and water resource management, but forecasts of future river states often contain errors. Post-processing reduces forecast errors but is usually only applied at the locations of river gauges, leaving the majority of the river network uncorrected. Here, we present a data-assimilation-inspired method for error-correcting ensemble simulations across gauged and ungauged locations in a post-processing step. Our new method employs state augmentation within the framework of the Localised Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to estimate an error vector for each ensemble member. The LETKF uses ensemble error covariances to spread observational information from gauged to ungauged locations in a dynamic and computationally efficient manner. To improve the efficiency of the LETKF we define localisation, covariance inflation, and initial ensemble generation techniques that can be easily transferred between modelling systems and river catchments. We implement and evaluate our new error-correction method for the Rhine-Meuse catchment using ensemble forecasts from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service’s European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The resulting river discharge ensembles are error-corrected at every grid box but remain spatially and temporally consistent. Leave-one-out cross validation is used to evaluate the skill of the ensembles at proxy-ungauged locations to assess the ability of the method to spread the correction along the river network. The skill of the ensemble mean is improved at almost all locations including stations both up- and downstream of the assimilated observations. Whilst the ensemble spread is improved at short lead-times, at longer lead-times the ensemble reliability is decreased. In summary, our method successfully propagates error information along the river network, enabling error correction at ungauged locations. This technique can be used for improved post-event analysis and can be developed further to post-process operational forecasts providing more accurate knowledge about the future states of rivers.

How to cite: Matthews, G., Cloke, H. L., Dance, S. L., and Prudhomme, C.: Error-correction across gauged and ungauged locations: A data assimilation-inspired approach to post-processing river discharge ensembles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11733, 2025.

EGU25-12664 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.3

A Framework for Enhancing Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) 

David De León Pérez, Dariana Avila-Velazquez, Hector Macian-Sorribes, Sergio Salazar-Galán, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, and Felix Francés García

Seasonal hydrological forecasts are of critical importance for the effective management of water resources, particularly in complex and vulnerable basins such as the Mediterranean area which have both a deficitary water regimen and a high anthropogenic pressure. Nevertheless, inaccuracies in meteorological inputs can propagate through hydrological models, amplifying uncertainties in flow predictions. It is imperative to rectify these forecasts, whether meteorological or hydrological, to enhance prediction reliability and provide robust data for informed decision-making. This study proposes an advanced framework for seasonal hydrological forecasting that integrates raw and corrected weather forecasts with distributed hydrological modeling and sophisticated post-processing techniques to enhance flow prediction accuracy in the Júcar River in Spain as a representative case study of the Mediterranean area.

The catchment hydrological model was implemented using the model TETIS v9.1 wich was calibrated and validated using observed records from 1981 to 2019 at seven control points. To do this, a split sample test was conducted using the period 2009–2019 for calibration, and the rest of the time series for validation (1981–2008). The process involved refining parameter maps to ensure good or acceptable performance at all control points. Meteorological data were sourced from the W5E5 dataset, downscaled to a 0.09° resolution using ERA5-Land. This improved the spatial and temporal resolution of the hydrological model. Once we have established an acceptable hydrological model,, the seasonal forecast hindcasts were evaluated using meteorological inputs from global forecasting systems, including ECMWF-SEAS5, CMCC_SPSv35, DWD_GCFS21, and MeteoFrance System8. To address uncertainties in the meteorological forecasts and their propagation to hydrological outputs, two complementary correction strategies were implemented. First, artificial intelligence(fuzzy logic) was applied to correct meteorological inputs before integration into the hydrological model, assuming errors originate solely from meteorological data and treating the hydrological model as a “perfect” simulator. Second, a hydrological error model was developed to identify and adjust discrepancies between simulated and observed flows, addressing systematic biases and errors in the hydrological simulation.

The results demonstrated that forecasts based on corrected meteorological inputs exhibited significant accuracy improvements compared to those using unprocessed inputs. The hydrological error model further enhanced prediction reliability by mitigating systematic biases. These findings underscore the effectiveness of combining meteorological forecasts with AI-driven corrections to address uncertainties, thereby improving the robustness of seasonal hydrological predictions. This study highlights the potential for integrating advanced correction techniques into seasonal hydrological forecasting frameworks, offering a replicable methodology for other basins with similar complexities. The proposed framework enhances both the reliability and applicability of forecasts, ensuring their relevance for effective decision-making in complex hydrological systems as the Mediterranean area. The improved accuracy of these forecasts provides a sound scientific support for adaptive water resource management, particularly in the face of increasing climatic variability and environmental changes.

Acknowledgments: This study was funded by the Colombian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MINCIENCIAS) through the Call for Doctorates Abroad 885-2; by the Valencian Regional Government through the WATER4CAST 2.0 (CIPROM/2023/5) research project; and Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the research project TETISPREDICT (PID2022-141631OB-I00).

 

How to cite: De León Pérez, D., Avila-Velazquez, D., Macian-Sorribes, H., Salazar-Galán, S., Pulido-Velazquez, M., and Francés García, F.: A Framework for Enhancing Seasonal Hydrological Forecasting in the Jucar River Basin (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12664, 2025.

Accurate hydraulic and hydrologic simulation of gravity collection systems typically requires solving high-dimensional, nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), which can be computationally demanding for real-time and predictive applications, as well as difficult to calibrate. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel approach that replaces selected portions of the governing equations with simplified alternatives and compensates for any added model error through continuous data assimilation. Specifically, we employ the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate real-time observations into an ensemble of model forecasts at regular intervals, continuously updating the defined model states for both hydrologic and hydraulic engines.

We demonstrate our approach on a sewer collection system in Oregon (United States), showing that incorporating data assimilation into a simplified PDE model can outperform a more complex, full-physics model. Compared to the traditional computationally intensive approach, the proposed method achieves a 10% reduction in root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the resulting Hydraulic Gradeline (HGL) while also delivering a 78% improvement in computational efficiency. These gains are particularly valuable for applications such as near-real-time system state forecasting and predictive storm response for proactive decision-making to prevent Sanitary Sewer Overflow (SSO) risk, where both accuracy and speed are crucial.

By leveraging available observations to update the state of a simplified model through the application of data assimilation, our methodology bridges the gap between computational tractability and physical realism. Furthermore, its adaptability makes it broadly applicable to other hydraulic and hydrologic systems—including river networks, irrigation canals, and urban drainage infrastructure—where continuous data assimilation can significantly improve predictive performance and operational reliability.

How to cite: Mahdipour, A.:  Balancing Efficiency and Accuracy: Simplifying Complex PDEs in Collection Systems Hydraulic and Hydrologic Modeling with Continuous Data Assimilation – A Case Study., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13511, 2025.

EGU25-14562 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.3

Advancing Multi-Hazard Analysis: Worst Case Scenarios from Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 

Md. Rezuanul Islam, Tsutao Oizumi, Le Duc, Takuma Ota, Takuya Kawabata, and Yohei Sawada

Ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool for supporting informed decision-making in managing multi-hazard risks associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). While TC ensemble forecasts are widely utilized in operational numerical weather prediction systems, their potential for disaster prediction remains underutilized. Here we propose a novel, efficient, and practical method to extract meaningful multi-hazard worst case scenarios (MHWCS) from a large ensemble TC forecast of 1000-members for the first time. We perform the simulation of TC Hagibis (2019) using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) nonhydrostatic model. The simulated atmospheric predictions were serving as inputs for JMA’s operational flood forecast model, as well as statistical storm surge and gust wind models. These models estimate river flooding, storm surge, and wind hazard intensities in Tokyo. By accounting for uncertainties in ensemble multi-hazard forecasts, we objectively demonstrate that Pareto-optimal solutions can effectively identify the meaningful MHWCS. These solutions illustrate complex trade-offs among competing hazard components across various forecast locations. Notably, the meaningful MHWCS do not necessarily represent the most extreme values for individual hazards but instead maximize hazard intensities relative to the ensemble mean, collectively leading to significant disaster impacts. Our findings further underscore the importance of evaluating Pareto-optimal solutions to assist risk managers in understanding how combinations of TC meteorological variables—such as track, translation speed, intensity, size, and rainfall—shape worst-case scenarios. For instance, meaningful MHWCS forecasts tend to exhibit moderate meteorological characteristics comparable to the ensemble mean, with variability in translation speed emerging as the strongest single predictor of single-hazard worst-case scenarios.

How to cite: Islam, Md. R., Oizumi, T., Duc, L., Ota, T., Kawabata, T., and Sawada, Y.: Advancing Multi-Hazard Analysis: Worst Case Scenarios from Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14562, 2025.

In recent years, small-scale heavy precipitation in Saxony has repeatedly led to exceptional flood situations in small and very small catchment areas in the low mountain range. Such catchment areas often react very quickly to precipitation events. Due to the sometimes tremendous effects, particularly in residential areas, early flood warning is essential. The forecast and the associated flood warning enable local authorities, emergency services and water authorities to prepare for the potential flood situation at an early stage and initiate the necessary measures.

We developed a flood early warning system that is in operational use in three pilot regions in Saxony. Data processing is event-driven and is controlled by a so-called sentinel component based on meteorological forecasts. This sentinel checks every 30 minutes whether a specific precipitation threshold in the forecast for the next 24 or 48 hours will be exceeded at any location in Saxony. In this case, the necessary precipitation data for a hydrological ensemble forecast is compiled. Two demonstrators were implemented for this purpose: (1) use of precipitation for observation and forecasting from established products of the German Weather Service (RADOLAN-RW – radar based QPE, RADOLAN-RV – radar based nowcasting, ICON-D2-EPS – ensemble QPF) and (2) precipitation from new, prototype products of the German Weather Service (pyRADMAN, SINFONY-INTENSE). With the pyRADMAN product, radar calibration is carried out by assimilation to rain gauges and commercial microwave links with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The SINFONY-INTENSE product integrates nowcasting and forecasts data into a seamless prediction ensemble with 21 members. Based on the respective combination of data, a separate decision is made for each warning region in Saxony as to whether a specific flood situation is imminent. If the system recognises a potential flood situation, the catchments in the according warning region are simulated using the event-based hydrological model DeHM. DeHM includes processes for runoff formation, runoff concentration, routing and simulation of dams. Data assimilation is carried out using online coupling with runoff data at gauging stations and reservoir levels in flood retention basins or dams.

The demonstrator with established products has been running since August 2023 and the demonstrator with prototype products since December 2023. The performance of both systems is evaluated. Parameters such as KGE or Percentage Error in Peak alongside threshold-based parameters such as False Alarm Ratio or Area under ROC Curve (AUC) allow the quality of both demonstrators to be assessed using various prediction ranges. The differences between the two demonstrators are shown on the basis of the quality measures and specific simulation results, and the associated benefits for early flood warning are discussed.

How to cite: Wagner, M. and Grundmann, J.: On the benefits of new, seamless prediction products in operational hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting in small catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15923, 2025.

In France, groundwater is one of the most important resources for industry, agriculture, and drinking water. While severe droughts affecting groundwater are becoming more frequent, the development of forecast has become essential for stakeholders. The hydro-meteorological platform Aqui-FR (Vergnes et al., 2020), which integrates different regional groundwater models, is coupled with atmospheric reanalysis and downscaled seasonal forecasts (Willemet et al., 2022) to achieve this goal.

However, biases and errors in the models used still affect the predicted initial conditions (IC), limiting the potential for operational use. To overcome these problems, a data assimilation (DA) scheme has been developed within the Aqui-FR workflow. The analysis step focuses on state estimation, and more specifically on piezometric (groundwater) levels during a reanalysis run. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF ; Evensen, 1994) has been implemented in a Python library (aquida) to set up a sequential DA. Two inflation methods and two localisation methods (quasi-Gaussian distance-based and spatial autocorrelation-based) are used.

To analyse the efficiency of the DA scheme, this first study focuses on one of the regional models of the Aqui-FR platform, the Somme basin model which uses the MARTHE hydrogeological computer code (Thiéry et al., 2020) to simulate both piezometric levels and river discharge. In situ piezometric data from monitored wells will be assimilated.

Preliminary results obtained from our numerical experiments show the benefit of DA on groundwater state estimation with a regional model (mean RMSE reduced from 4.26 to 0.32), even with spatially sparse data. When assimilation is stopped, the analysis shows an impact on state estimation up to a seasonal time step (mean RMSE about 2.9 after 180 days without assimilation), which is encouraging for forecast improvements. Nevertheless, in regions of the model domain where the initial calibration is too poor, the correction shows less persistence and the dynamics of the model appear to be driven by parameters rather than forcing. To improve the piezometric estimation in these areas, we plan to implement a two-step DA with parameter estimation prior to state estimation.

 

References

Evensen, G. (1994). Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics.  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 99 (C5), 10143–10162. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC00572
Thiéry, D., Picot-Colbeaux, G., & Guillemoto, Q. (2020). Guidelines for MARTHE v7.8 computer code for hydro-systems modelling (English version) (tech.  rep. No. BRGM/RP69660-FR). BRGM.
Vergnes, et al. (2020). The AquiFR hydrometeorological modelling platform as a tool for improving groundwater resource monitoring over France: Evaluation over a 60-year period. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24 (2), 633–654. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-633-2020
Willemet, J.-M., et al. (2022) Aqui-FR: Towards a hydro-geological seasonal forecasting system for metropolitan France. In: IAHS-AISH Scientific Assembly. IAHS2022-525. Montpellier, France: Copernicus Meetings. https://doi.org/10.5194/iahs2022-525

How to cite: Manlay, A., Vergnes, J.-P., and Habets, F.: On the need for better groundwater initial conditions estimation in seasonal forecasts: a data assimilation scheme for Aqui-FR hydrometeorological modelling platform. Example with the regional case study of the Somme basin (France)., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16561, 2025.

EGU25-18976 | Orals | HS4.3

Value [def.]: The importance or worth of something for someone 

Micha Werner, Deborah Dotta Correa, Katherine Egan, Calum Baugh, Schalk-Jan van Andel, and Rebecca Emerton

Seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts, often incorporated in a climate service, may provide (probabilistic) predictions or outlooks of water resources availability and early warning of drought to agriculture, hydropower, humanitarian, tourism, forestry, and other sectors. Availability of seasonal forecast data and of climate services have mushroomed in recent decades, but research shows that the actual uptake and use of these has not quite kept pace. Several reasons for this lag are identified, and it is acknowledged that three key dimensions that foster uptake are the credibility, salience and legitimacy of data and services provided; from the perspective of intended users.

As showcased in many contributions in this session, significant effort is dedicated to improving the consistency and quality of (probabilistic) seasonal forecasts through the understanding of uncertainty, data-assimilation, and bias-reduction. This is important, as an accurate forecast contributes to this being considered good, and the opinion users hold on its credibility. However, accuracy alone is not sufficient. Users must also consider the forecast salient, or relevant, to the decisions it is intended to support. Even the most precise and technically robust forecasts may fail to be considered if they do not align with the specific needs, priorities and contexts of users. This eludes to the title of this contribution, which is the dictionary definition of the word value. If users consider the predictions or outlooks actionable in informing their decision-making processes, then these hold value to them. Conversely, researchers and developers of seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts often find other aspects important. They may value forecasts that provide accurate predictions of hydrometeorological variables, and use forecast verification through a range of metrics to evaluate forecast goodness. While these metrics are essential from a technical perspective, they may be less meaningful to users.

In this contribution we explore how seasonal forecasts can be co-evaluated, together with users, and through user-oriented (verification) metrics. An essential step is the identification of needs through a common understanding of the decisions that users take and how they use data and knowledge in making those decisions. We show how this has been developed with users in Living Labs established in the I-CISK project, an EU research initiative. We find that this is a highly iterative process, with tools such as interviews, surveys, focus group discussions and co-developed decision timelines giving rich insight to what decisions are made, thresholds that are used, and when decisions are made when these vary seasonally. We also evaluate through interviews with users a selection of commonly used verification metrics. Results from these interviews show that decision-oriented metrics such as contingency tables are considered more informative than other metrics, as are visual inspection of forecast performance for past events. They also show that discussing these in the co-evaluation process contributed to the opinion users had on the credibility of the forecasts and how these are of value to them. Significantly, the co-evaluation of forecasts was also found to help build trust, contributing to legitimacy; the third important dimension of uptake.

How to cite: Werner, M., Dotta Correa, D., Egan, K., Baugh, C., van Andel, S.-J., and Emerton, R.: Value [def.]: The importance or worth of something for someone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18976, 2025.

Droughts have multiple definitions for a range of drought types, and related indicators, in science alone. For persons experiencing and having to cope with droughts, individual, sectoral, and local definitions vary even further. Hydrometeorological sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of droughts may help to better plan, communicate, and implement mitigation measures. Forecast skill of such forecasts for droughts may depend on the drought definition or definitions analysed.


This research, therefore, analyses in depth, drought impacts, mitigation measures, decision making processes and the potential added value of using forecasts, for a case study in the Netherlands: Rijnland. This is a low-lying flat area in the West, mostly below sea-level, with a dense irrigation and drainage water system to maintain surface water levels in a narrow target range along with its water quality. Both hydrological droughts in the Rhine river basin, and meteorological droughts locally in Rijnland, affect and may trigger drought mitigation actions in Rijnland. Case study drought definitions for early warning are expressed in terms of time-varying lower thresholds for Rhine discharge, and thresholds of potential precipitation deficit varying for different levels of alert.


Forecast skill and potential added value for case study specific mitigation actions of sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrometeorological reforecasts, both directly available and AI-enhanced, are presented and intercompared with the aim to arrive at well-informed recommendations for their use or non-use in the case study of Rijnland. 

How to cite: van Andel, S. J. and Bertini, C.: Forecast skill and potential added value for drought mitigation actions of sub-seasonal to seasonal AI-enhanced hydrometeorological forecasts: case study of Rijnland, the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19967, 2025.

EGU25-1463 | PICO | HS4.4

Blending Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Predictions from Multiple Forecasting Systems 

Katie Facer-Childs, Burak Bulut, Amulya Chevuturi, Jamie Hannaford, Maliko Tanguy, Jafet Andersson, Yiheng Du, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

Given the increasing vulnerability due to more frequent and severe hydrological hazards under a changing climate, it is imperative to develop accurate and reliable global and local hydrological prediction systems at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. However, operational forecasts tailored to specific local regions remain limited due to lack of both local observations and regional hydrological models, while global hydrological models often lack calibration for local conditions, making it challenging for them to capture local-scale dynamics. Additionally, users and decision-makers face difficulties in effectively interpreting ensemble forecasts from multiple hydrological models in operational settings especially when compared to the simplicity and clarity of a single model approach. To bridge this gap, it is essential to integrate existing hydrological forecasting systems across global, regional, and local scales, with the goal of delivering skilful, standardized, and comprehensible predictions. As part of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) initiative, we are exploring various approaches to: (i) validate and enhance the skill of current hydrological probabilistic forecasts, and (ii) blend multi-model ensemble simulations to develop integrated and reliable operational forecasts. Here, we aim to develop a framework for bias-correcting and blending global multi-model ensemble forecasts, based on the skill of each modelling system for each catchment, to deliver unique probabilistic forecasts. Our research, using global hindcasts from various modelling systems, has demonstrated that applying this framework to post-process raw model simulations can deliver reliable S2S hydrological forecasts across diverse global catchments operationally. This approach has the potential for improved water resource management and hydrological hazard mitigation, particularly in data-sparse regions.

How to cite: Facer-Childs, K., Bulut, B., Chevuturi, A., Hannaford, J., Tanguy, M., Andersson, J., Du, Y., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Blending Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Predictions from Multiple Forecasting Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1463, 2025.

EGU25-3452 | PICO | HS4.4

Operational machine learning aided sub-seasonal forecasting of drought related extremes 

Massimiliano Zappa, Ryan Sebastian Padrón Flasher, Luzi Bernhard, Matthias Buchecker, Yuan-Yuan Annie Chang, Aaron Cremona, Daniel Farinotti, Martin Gossner, Elisabeth Maidl, Robert McElderry, Loic Pellissier, Gian Boris Pezzati, Michael Schirmer, and Konrad Bogner

As a result of climate change, the frequency and severity of droughts in Switzerland is set to increase, with potentially devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and human health. To help mitigate these risks, the MaLeFiX project is developing interdisciplinary extension to the established www.drought.ch platform that will provide comprehensive four-week multi-hazards forecasts of drought-related extremes (https://www.drought.ch/de/impakt-vorhersagen-malefix/).

Droughts are complex phenomena that have significant implications for many aspects of the environment and human life. Understanding droughts and predicting their impacts is crucial for effective preparation and mitigation. The MaLeFiX project is therefore extending the portfolio of drought predictions to a set of relevant impacts across disciplines.  The newely developed tools provide comprehensive four-week drought forecasts for the whole of Switzerland, integrating advanced models across hydrology, forest fires, glacier balance, aquatic biodiversity, groundwater, and bark beetle dynamics. Utilizing hybrid AI and meteorological data, the platform will deliver accurate and user-friendly information to help policymakers, stakeholders, scientists, and the public make informed decisions.

The reliability of single forecasts decreases significantly the further they look into the future, making accurate predictions beyond one to two weeks challenging. To overcome this, the MaLeFiX platform uses ensemble forecasts. Its advanced models are fed with meteorological data from MeteoSwiss, which provides monthly forecasts with daily temporal resolution twice weekly. Each forecast is repeated 51 times with slight variations in initial conditions, allowing the MaLeFiX platform to estimate the probability of extreme events up to three to four weeks in advance.

Key recent developments:

  • AI-Based Models: Two new AI models have been created to assess forest fire risks and calculate water temperature to evaluate the danger of stress to aquatic life forms, enhancing the accuracy of these critical forecasts.
  • Model Harmonization: Existing models for hydrology, glacier balance, and bark beetle dynamics have been refined to work seamlessly with the same input data, enabling clear analysis and interpretation of the overall situation and potential exacerbating factors.
  • Multi-model ensemble: the traditional distributed hydrological model PREVAH used at WSL model has been complemented with a multi-model system consisting of 11 different lumped models being operated for 87 headwater catchments.

After the harmonization of models the team is currently working on provide users with a comprehensive overview of the overall drought situation by displaying the possible combined impacts of various drought-related processes (e.g., low runoff and high water temperature).

How to cite: Zappa, M., Padrón Flasher, R. S., Bernhard, L., Buchecker, M., Chang, Y.-Y. A., Cremona, A., Farinotti, D., Gossner, M., Maidl, E., McElderry, R., Pellissier, L., Pezzati, G. B., Schirmer, M., and Bogner, K.: Operational machine learning aided sub-seasonal forecasting of drought related extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3452, 2025.

EGU25-4853 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

From Regional Flood Warnings to Local Decision Support: Applying a Service Design Approach for Voss Municipality 

Trine Jahr Hegdahl, Tonje Vidringstad, and Ameesha Timbadia

The national flood warning system for Norway is undergoing a renewal process, moving towards risk-based flood forecasting. The FlomRisk project, launched in 2022, involves user participation from five municipalities as pilot study areas. Different flood forecasting setups have been evaluated over three years, including hydrological and hydraulic model selection and methods for aggregating local impact. The project aims to i) improve regional warnings from the national flood warning service by better reflecting local impacts and ii) identifying the municipalities' information needs during critical flooding stages.

A service design approach was used to focus national warning services on creating relevant and useful products. The involvement and codesign with municipalities began in 2022. In 2023, over 100 user meetings and interviews were conducted, covering more than five municipalities, national flood experts, and consultants. Information was gathered on the stages of decision-making during flooding events: before (preparation phase), during (coordination and handling during the crisis), and after (event evaluation and future learning points). Four key needs were identified by the municipalities: 

  • Early information to get an overview of possible situations.  What kind of challenges might the emergency response units anticipate.
  • Useful and locally relevant information about the situation and possible consequences.
  • More effective communication, both internally and externally, towards media and inhabitants.
  • Easier documentation of consequences and adaptation measures during ongoing situations.

In 2024, using insights from the previous year, a prototype for Voss Municipality was developed. Voss faces complex flood and natural hazard challenges. The prototype was codeveloped with knowledge from local flood contacts, emergency response leaders, modeling teams, existing products, and efforts across institutions and sectors. The prototype consists of two modes, one is for an ongoing situation, whereas the second is to evaluate the impact of different flood scenarios. 

This initial prototype will be presented to a panel of different municipalities and users, essential for suggestions and making alterations. Different users provide useful feedback and insight based on their varying experiences with flood and natural hazard challenges, knowledge, and organizational structures of emergency responses. This approach helps formulate suggestions on how municipalities can build or integrate their decision support systems to improve local flood responses to regional warnings.

How to cite: Hegdahl, T. J., Vidringstad, T., and Timbadia, A.: From Regional Flood Warnings to Local Decision Support: Applying a Service Design Approach for Voss Municipality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4853, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4853, 2025.

We present the latest developments on our integrated information physical quantum technological system dynamic framework for multiscale multidomain spatiotemporal multi-hazard intelligence. Advancing system dynamic sensing, awareness, understanding and prediction of multiscale spatiotemporal compound, cascading, coevolutionary and synergistic multi-hazards.

Our next-generation platform leverages the methodological, technological and operational capabilities of Neuro-Quantum Cyber-Physical Intelligence (NQCPI), introduced in Perdigão (2024). NQCPI entails a novel framework for nonlinear natural-based neural post-quantum information physics, along with further advances in far-from-equilibrium thermodynamics and evolutionary cognition in post-quantum neurobiochemistry, for next-generation information physical systems intelligence and security. Rooted in the inherent information physical properties of nature, NQCPI seamlessly operates across classical, quantum and post-quantum environments.

Fundamentally, NQCPI harnesses and operates with emerging nonlinear quantum properties elusive to traditional classical and quantum technological and systems intelligence structures, including new classes of high-order coevolution, emergence and entanglement. It further harnesses new neuro-quantum physical properties, with higher-order post-quantum-proof improvements in security, storage and relaying of information, crucial to fast, robust and secure operation in sensitive prediction and emergency systems.

In the scope of the Earth System Sciences and Natural Hazards, our technology is implemented as a coherent coevolutionary information physical solution spanning across the operational value chain ranging from sensing, analytics, prediction and decision support. For this purpose, it synergistically articules with our maturing technologies including QITES (Perdigão 2020), AIPSI (Perdigão and Hall 2023) and SynQ-WIN (Perdigão and Hall 2024).

The implementation is devised and operated in a cross-platform manner, encompassing seamless articulation and backward compatibility with state-of-art systems across diverse sectors. These include, but are not limited, to hydro-meteorological, naval and aerospace, civil protection and emergency management, among others.

Practical use cases are also addressed, ranging from event-scale early-warning systems to long-term decision support, where our technology has been tested and implemented. Benchmarking tests are also conducted, validating our simulations relative to observational records and assessing the added value of our solution relative to state-of-art approaches, ranging from purely physically and purely data-based to hybrid physically informed machine learning, deep learning and systems intelligence.

A window of opportunity is thus provided for further collaborations and co-creative tailored developments with further end-users, ranging from research laboratories to operational centers, given the cross-platform capabilities for workflow articulation among novel and existing infrastructures.

 

Acknowledgements: This contribution is developed in the scope of the Meteoceanics Flagship on Quantum Information Technologies in the Earth Sciences (QITES), and of the C2IMPRESS project supported by the Εuropean Union under the Horizon Europe grant 101074004.

 

References:

  • Perdigão, R.A.P.; Hall, J. (2023): Augmented Information Physical Systems Intelligence (AIPSI). https://doi.org/10.46337/230414
  • Perdigão, R.A.P.; Hall, J. (2024): Synergistic Nonlinear Quantum Wave Intelligence Networks (SyNQ-WIN). https://doi.org/10.46337/240118
  • Perdigão, R.A.P. (2020): QITES – Quantum Information Technologies in the Earth Sciences. https://doi.org/10.46337/qites.200628
  • Perdigão, R.A.P. (2024): Neuro-Quantum Cyber-Physical Intelligence (NQCPI). https://doi.org/10.46337/241024

 

How to cite: Perdigão, R. A. P. and Hall, J.: Neuro-Quantum Cyber-Geophysical Platform for Operational Multi-Hazard System Dynamic Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6726, 2025.

EGU25-10096 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Identification of Warning Fatigue and Its Impact on Municipal Preparedness in Norway 

Carolin Bauer, Trine Jahr Hegdahl, and Ivar Berthling

From 7. August 2023 to 9. August 2023, Norway was hit by the extreme weather event “Hans”. Especially in the southern and western parts of the country, municipalities were warned about precipitation of up to 100 mm within 24 hours (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2023) causing extensive flooding and landslides. Rain, flood and landslides warnings were issued early and for large areas. Not all municipalities reacted with the necessary urgency to the situation for various reasons. In a survey of the affected municipalities after “Hans”, many municipalities described that they were overwhelmed with the circumstances or had no prior experience with the size of the predicted floodings. On the other hand, there were municipalities that had experienced major floodings before, but underestimated the severity of “Hans”. The general opinion of Norwegian municipalities is that there are too many warnings, leading to warning fatigue. Hence, this study aims to: i) analyse the total number of issued warnings, as well as the warning level assigned, and ii) analyse the warning response of selected municipalities before and after “Hans”.

Through a statistical review of all municipalities’ warnings, clusters of municipalities prone to warning fatigue, or under-preparedness are found. By comparing the response to different extreme weather events, the goal is to identify patterns resulting in over-warning or warning fatigue. It is expected that the number of issued warnings, will have increased over the last ten years, however cross-referencing with the preparedness to future events by installing mitigation measures, citizen education on natural hazards and such, differences between municipalities will become apparent.

How to cite: Bauer, C., Jahr Hegdahl, T., and Berthling, I.: Identification of Warning Fatigue and Its Impact on Municipal Preparedness in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10096, 2025.

EGU25-10588 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Rapid development of impact-based national flood early warning system 

Maggie Henry Madsen, Raphaél Payet-Burin, Michael Butts, Sanita Dhaubanjar, Jonas Wied Pedersen, Grith Martinsen, Phillip Aarestrup, Charlotte Agata Plum, Cecilie Thrysøe, Sara Lerer, and Emma Dybro Thomassen

Denmark, as a low-lying country, is subject to acute flood risks including urban flash floods (cloudbursts) from intense convective storms, fluvial flooding from heavy rainfall and extreme sea levels and storm surge along more than 7,300 km of coastline. Motivated by the extensive flooding in Denmark in 2020 and the devastating 2021 floods in Central Europe, the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) became the national authority for flood forecasting and warning, tasked with developing an operational system to forecast storm surge, pluvial and fluvial, flood risks.

To support anticipatory early actions, the key goals were to provide an operational 24/7 capability to issue timely, accurate and reliable flood forecasts, early warnings and associated flood impacts. With significant pressure to develop and deploy operational tools to support Denmark's emergency authorities within the first 18 months, we adopted pragmatic and simplified modeling approaches, balancing resolution, complexity, data availability and computational efficiency. 

We present the rapid development of operational capabilities to support the local and national emergency services, for storm surges, pluvial and fluvial flood events in Denmark, guided by initial consultations with the emergency services. Within the first year we developed, together with Scalgo, a real time flood mapping service for elevated sea levels and storm surges. This covers the entire Danish coastline, based on hourly water level forecasts, 5 days ahead. This service became operational in October 2022, immediately prior to the 2022 storm surge season. The timely launch allowed us to evaluate the performance of this service against the 100+-year storm that hit the coasts of Denmark in October 2023. A new cloudburst flood mapping service was developed, also together with Scalgo, including a new topography-based flood mapping approach to account, in a computationally efficient way, for effects of infiltration and urban drainage systems. This service became operational for all of Denmark in May 2023, at the beginning of the 2023 cloudburst season. Feedback from meetings with the emergency services during 2024 confirmed the value of this mapping service. Finally, for fluvial flooding, a rule-based warning system was initially developed. This approach uses statistical analysis of river levels and precipitation thresholds and exploits a newly developed national inventory of historical floods. Manual warnings, to the emergency services, based on this approach began in July 2023 focussed on high-risk areas and stations with good quality water level data. Our own evaluations of these new capabilities during the first year of operations were shared, in a series of workshops, with the local and national emergency services. The workshop objectives were to obtain their feedback and to understand their needs for the next development phase. We discuss how this rapid process for operational implementation of a national system was achieved. This includes our initial evaluations, operational challenges and solutions, as well as future end-user involvement and development plans. We are currently developing both machine learning approaches and conceptual hydrological modelling to extend our forecasting capability towards multi-model fluvial forecasting.

How to cite: Henry Madsen, M., Payet-Burin, R., Butts, M., Dhaubanjar, S., Wied Pedersen, J., Martinsen, G., Aarestrup, P., Agata Plum, C., Thrysøe, C., Lerer, S., and Dybro Thomassen, E.: Rapid development of impact-based national flood early warning system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10588, 2025.

EGU25-11485 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Comparing Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems in Transboundary River Basins 

Tim Busker, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Jaap Kwadijk, Rafaella Loureiro, Heather J. Murdock, Laurent Pfister, Benjamin Dewals, Kymo Slager, Annegret Thieken, Jan Verkade, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Patrick Willems, Davide Zoccatelli, and Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

This study compares operational flood forecasting and early warning systems (FFEWSs) in transboundary river basins in Northwestern Europe, covering parts of Luxembourg, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. This region was hit by an extreme flood event in 2021 with over 200 fatalities. Expert interviews from the region revealed strong improvements of the FFEWSs after this flood event in all countries. All regions have invested in probabilistic flood forecasting systems to improve warnings, and all countries now use mobile phone-based alerts. The interviews also revealed that, while ensemble forecasting systems are well-developed, the translation of those meteorological and hydrological forecasts to impacts, warnings and actionable advices remains difficult. A main challenge is the operational implementation of impact-based forecasts and warnings. For example, interviewees highlighted the need for operational flood inundation predictions. However, Flanders is the only region where such forecasts are provided. Hydrological forecasts for smaller upstream tributaries are generally unavailable or subject to large uncertainties. Strong differences exist in flood warning levels and color codes across and within the countries. These differences can hamper information exchange between regions and institutions and may confuse crisis managers and the public. In response to the extreme flood event in 2021, Luxembourg and some regions of Germany have recently introduced an additional violet warning code for the most extreme weather and hydrological events. However, it is still under debate whether additional warning levels support more effective communication to the public and responders. It is strongly recommended to enhance forecasts with impact-based information, including maps delineating potential inundation areas and people and objects at risk. Such information can enable crisis managers and first responders to take more timely and appropriate actions.

How to cite: Busker, T., Rodriguez Castro, D., Kwadijk, J., Loureiro, R., J. Murdock, H., Pfister, L., Dewals, B., Slager, K., Thieken, A., Verkade, J., Vorogushyn, S., Willems, P., Zoccatelli, D., and C.J.H. Aerts, J.: Comparing Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems in Transboundary River Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11485, 2025.

Rapid Flood Guidance for flash floods – an operational service for England and Wales in summer 2025

Charlie Pilling, Adrian Wynn, Neil Armstrong, Russell Turner, Julia Perez, Chris Lattimore, Catherine Birch

Flash floods, or rapid response catchment flooding, can be defined at flooding impacts between 0-6 hours of impactful rainfall occurring. Nowcasting can be defined at the 0-2 or 0-6 hour time scale. Further tragic rapid-onset events across Europe and globally during 2024 re-enforced the need for improved prediction and communication of rapid flooding to save lives. To save lives, warnings at these very short lead times, whether they are for urban areas or ravines, need to be issued rapidly to a receptive customer base.

During summer 2024, the UK Met Office (UKMO) Expert Weather Hub and the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) for England and Wales ran a pilot from May to September to nowcast and warn for intense rainfall and rapid onset flooding. The Expert Weather Hub operated a surge capacity drawing on rapidly updating diagnostics to identify areas of intense convection and flood producing rainfall, as well as other hazards. At the same time, FFC piloted a Rapid Flood Guidance Service where days 1 and/or day 2 of the daily Flood Guidance Statement are highlighted as susceptible to rapid flooding. This highlighted potentially affected areas of England and Wales to emergency responders. Then as storms broke out and the risk of rapid flooding increased, the detailed output from the Expert Weather Hub was used by the FFC to issue Rapid Flood Guidance to emergency responders at short lead times, less than 6 hours, and possibly less than 2 hours’ notice. 

This presentation will explain the components of the Rapid Flood Guidance trial and present key findings from research to operations, as well as a summary of the evaluation from the hundreds of emergency responders. It will also highlight key findings from the evaluation of the surface water impact models, with a focus on less than 24 hours lead time. We will highlight development areas to the science and operational development and suggest how such short notice warnings can best be communicated to potential users to incite the appropriate actions. This will also highlight finding and recommendations from the Met Office Summer Forecasting Testbed 2024 which compared two rapid surface water flooding hazard impact models. The Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model, SWFHIM, was developed through the Natural Hazards Partnership and is currently used operationally in the FFC. The second, FOREWARNS, has been developed by the University of Leeds and the Met Office.

The design of the 2025 operational Rapid Flood Guidance service will be described on the ‘eve’ of its launch May 2025.

How to cite: Pilling, C.: Rapid Flood Guidance for flash floods – an operational service for England and Wales in summer 2025 , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14408, 2025.

EGU25-14611 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Impact based forecasting to cope with riverine floods in Peruvian Andes—Amazon basin 

Danny Saavedra, Vinícius Alencar Siqueira, Erik Schmitt Quedi, Cléber Henrique de Araújo Gama, Walter Collischonn, and Waldo Lavado

Impact-based forecasting (IBF) represents a significant advancement in natural disaster risk management by focusing on the vulnerabilities of people, livelihoods, and assets. Here we introduce the methodology of PANDORA (Impact based forecasting to cope with riverine floods in the Huallaga river basin), a system designed to provide impact-based forecasts for a basin in the Andean-Amazon region of Peru. PANDORA integrates a large-scale hydrological model with precipitation forecasts resampled from historical meteorological data to produce 5-day probabilistic streamflow forecasts. These are compared against flood thresholds for 2, 5, and 10-year return periods, corresponding to moderate, heavy, and extreme severity levels. Subsequently, they are linked with key flood-exposed elements: (i) population, (ii) educational institutions, (iii) health centers, (iv) road networks, and (v) agricultural areas. Potential impacts can be assessed at various administrative levels, including districts, provinces, and departments. The system’s performance was evaluated during December 2023, when significant river floods occurred in the basin. Results show that flood events were primarily forecasted between December 27 and 30, while the IBFs indicated extreme severity (red level) for the exposed elements mainly on December 27, 30 and 31. These findings align with reports from the Information System for Response and Rehabilitation of Peru. Despite existing limitations, PANDORA is currently operational and demonstrates great potential to support local authorities in decision-making processes for flood risk management.

How to cite: Saavedra, D., Alencar Siqueira, V., Schmitt Quedi, E., de Araújo Gama, C. H., Collischonn, W., and Lavado, W.: Impact based forecasting to cope with riverine floods in Peruvian Andes—Amazon basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14611, 2025.

EGU25-15042 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

An Integrated Framework for Coastal Flood Inundation Forecasting: Advancing Early Warning Systems in Vulnerable Deltaic Regions 

Ashrumochan Mohanty, Bhabagrahi Sahoo, and Ravindra Vitthal Kale

Coastal regions, particularly deltaic systems, are highly susceptible to flood risks arising from the complex interactions of storm surges, riverine flooding, upstream reservoir discharges, and heavy inland rainfall. Traditional flood forecasting models often struggle to integrate these diverse factors effectively, leading to significant uncertainties in predicting flood extents. To address this critical gap, this study presents a novel and comprehensive coastal flood inundation forecasting framework designed for regions frequently impacted by tropical cyclones and extreme hydrological events. The framework integrates multiple components, including real-time reservoir inflow forecasting by SWAT-Pothole+WBiLSTM model, HEC-ResSim-based reservoir outflow predictions governed by operational rule curves, storm-surge and tide predictions utilizing ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and WBiLSTM deep learning approaches, and flood inundation modeling by HEC-RAS two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation. The methodology was applied to the twin Brahmani-Baitarani river systems in eastern India, a region prone to recurrent cyclonic storms and severe flooding. Validation of simulated flood extents was conducted using Sentinel-1 satellite imagery from several tropical cyclone events, demonstrating the model's robust predictive capabilities. The results showed that the framework achieved accuracy levels ranging from 86.72% to 38.12% for lead times between one and eight days. Additionally, the model underscores the importance of incorporating all contributing factors, including the dynamic interaction of coastal and inland flooding processes, to achieve realistic flood forecasts. This research not only advances the understanding of coastal flooding but also offers a practical and scalable tool for enhancing early warning systems through informed flood risk management strategies in vulnerable coastal regions worldwide.

How to cite: Mohanty, A., Sahoo, B., and Kale, R. V.: An Integrated Framework for Coastal Flood Inundation Forecasting: Advancing Early Warning Systems in Vulnerable Deltaic Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15042, 2025.

EGU25-15309 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Best practice for transforming an inter-institutional research on climate services into an operational system referring Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 

Tinh Vu, Robert Reinecke, Christof Lorenz, Stephan Dietrich, and Matthias Zink

Climate change has led to a high demand for an appropriate system for monitoring and forecasting climate extremes, which could support disaster risk reduction and climate change mitigation. This has also led to global initiatives like WMO’s Early Warnings for All Initiative, which aims to provide early warning systems to support decision-making processes by the end of 2027. In this context, there is an urgent need to accelerate the transition from research, primarily conducted in academia, to a sustainable application for developing long-term operational environmental services. Here, we argue that this transition can be enabled and accelerated through Open-Source software tools and libraries, containerization, and the professionalization of research software engineering. They play a crucial role at all stages of technology development, from early research and prototyping to system deployment and scaling. The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) is an effective and standardized measure to assess the maturity of such developments. However, it is still unclear how the TRL can be applied in research-based tools and services and what preparatory steps need to be taken to ensure a certain pre-defined TRL.

In this talk, we will discuss best practices in developing a climate service system, using the example of the ongoing OUTLAST project (operational, multi-sectoral global drought hazard forecasting system), in which an operational drought forecasting system will be developed. OUTLAST is one of the first attempts to build a ready-to-be-transferred system using a cloud-ready concept to seamlessly transfer research-based developments into an operational system among governmental institutions. The present work will show how the currently developed software tools can support researchers in overcoming the current obstacles in technology development. We use OUTLAST to demonstrate how the automated pipeline is executed, from downloading the newly released climate data (ERA5 and SEAS5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to triggering models and generating drought hazard indicators to be pushed to a webpage. In this approach, each processing step and its dependencies in the model chain are encapsulated in a "container" at the research institution before being transferred to run in an infrastructure at an external government institution. The containers are then orchestrated to allow upscaling of the system based on computational requirements and availability of hardware resources. We will then discuss the obstacles in building such a system and how the flexibility and portability can be improved.

Our work highlights the benefits using cutting-edge research software engineering practices for facilitating a seamless transition from research to operational systems and propose best practices, including the necessary preparatory steps. We further present our work as a blueprint for similar initiatives to ultimately support the development and deployment of advanced environmental service systems, which can provide the urgently needed information for decision-makers, stakeholders, and other potential end-users.

How to cite: Vu, T., Reinecke, R., Lorenz, C., Dietrich, S., and Zink, M.: Best practice for transforming an inter-institutional research on climate services into an operational system referring Technology Readiness Level (TRL), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15309, 2025.

EGU25-17140 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Advanced Automation of HEC-RAS for Predictive Floodplain Mapping and Early Warning through Probabilistic Deep Learning 

amir saman tayerani charmchi, fatemeh ghobadi, Myeong In Kim, JungMin Lee, and Kichan Jung

Effective flood risk management crucially depends on precise floodplain inundation mapping and proactive early warning systems. This study introduces an innovative framework that automates the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) for 2D unsteady flow simulations, integrated with a state-of-the-art probabilistic deep learning model for enhanced streamflow prediction. This framework innovatively forecasts both lower and upper inundation bounds, substantially improving the accuracy and reliability of flood risk assessments. It employs a probabilistic deep learning model using a Transformer-based neural network with a distribution head, allowing dynamic adaptation to diverse hydrological conditions. This adaptation supports the generation of precise flood scenarios and enables effective, timely interventions. Validation across a series of South Korean case studies, selected for their hydrological diversity, confirms the framework's enhanced predictive capabilities in mapping flood extents over conventional methods. Additionally, integrating automated parameter optimization, Monte Carlo simulations, and adaptive learning algorithms within HEC-RAS enhances the scalability and adaptability of flood modeling efforts. The automated framework streamlines complex simulation processes while effectively addressing inherent model uncertainties and integration challenges in practical applications. By providing a robust, scalable, and adaptable tool, this framework contributes to hydrological modeling and transforming flood risk management in flood-prone areas worldwide.

How to cite: tayerani charmchi, A. S., ghobadi, F., Kim, M. I., Lee, J., and Jung, K.: Advanced Automation of HEC-RAS for Predictive Floodplain Mapping and Early Warning through Probabilistic Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17140, 2025.

EGU25-17325 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Improving vegetation condition forecasting for drought early warning in East Africa 

Chloe Hopling, Pedram Rowhani, James Muthoka, Martin Todd, Dominic Kniveton, and Emmah Mwangi

Droughts are a recurring global climate hazard that incur human, economic and environmental costs. In Eastern Africa, pastoralist communities whose livelihoods depend on the availability of pasturelands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of drought. In response to this vulnerability,  the University of Sussex developed vegetation condition forecasts for pastoralist communities using remote sensing data and machine learning techniques. These forecasts are designed to be used by the Kenyan National Drought Management Authority in monthly drought early warning bulletins. 

Building on stakeholder feedback and given the impacts of drought vary within a county/sub-county we identify a need for higher-resolution forecasts of the onset of drought. Here we present the initial findings from a comparative study exploring a range of machine learning techniques to generate higher resolution vegetation condition forecasts for transboundary pastoralist regions in eastern Africa.  We aim to evaluate how the forecast skill varies depending on:  machine learning technique, resolution of input data and satellite indicators included. 

This work is part of PASSAGE, a CLARE (https://clareprogramme.org/) funded project working towards strengthening pastoralist livelihoods through effective anticipatory action.

How to cite: Hopling, C., Rowhani, P., Muthoka, J., Todd, M., Kniveton, D., and Mwangi, E.: Improving vegetation condition forecasting for drought early warning in East Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17325, 2025.

EGU25-17902 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Enhancing Streamflow Prediction in Vulnerable Regions through Probabilistic Deep Learning and Satellite-Derived Data 

Fatemeh Ghobadi, Amir Saman Tayerani Charmchi, JungMin Lee, Myeong In Kim, and Kichan jung

Accurate and timely prediction of streamflow is critical for managing the increasing risks associated with floods, particularly in developing countries where traditional in-situ monitoring systems are often sparse or non-existent. This study introduces a novel probabilistic multi-step ahead prediction model that leverages Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), self-attention mechanisms via the Informer network, and a distributional output layer to enhance the predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification of streamflow time series. By integrating satellite-derived data, this approach addresses the acute data scarcity prevalent in regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and hydrological extremes. The proposed model captures complex, non-linear spatiotemporal dependencies within multi-sensors data, offering significant improvements over conventional geo-spatiotemporal analysis. This approach is validated across multiple case studies, demonstrating superior performance in both accuracy and reliability enhanced accuracy and reliability over conventional neural network architectures such as Vanilla LSTM, CNN-LSTM, traditional Transformers, and Informers. The incorporation of probabilistic outputs alongside sophisticated self-attention mechanisms significantly improves the model's capability to forecast streamflow over extended sequences, addressing critical gaps in flood forecasting. The findings underscore its potential as a practical tool for enhancing disaster preparedness and optimizing water resource management strategies in data-scarce regions, thereby contributing significantly to the resilience of vulnerable communities against climate-induced threats.

How to cite: Ghobadi, F., Tayerani Charmchi, A. S., Lee, J., Kim, M. I., and jung, K.: Enhancing Streamflow Prediction in Vulnerable Regions through Probabilistic Deep Learning and Satellite-Derived Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17902, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17902, 2025.

EGU25-18796 | ECS | PICO | HS4.4

Making Low Probability forecasts of High Impact Hydrological Events more useful for Society 

Fatima Pillosu, Timothy Hewson, and Ervin Zsoter

Flash floods are a significant societal problem, that rank as the World Meteorological Organisation’s top priority hazard. Pinpointing where and when they will hit is however extremely challenging beyond lead times of an hour or two, even when using state of the art convection-resolving ensembles, due mainly to significant ensemble size limitations. There has been more success in highlighting areas at risk from flash floods by post-processing numerical model output, either from these limited area ensembles, or from global ensembles with parametrised convection, or by blending the two.

A benefit of using global ensembles is that they are much less constrained spatially and in terms of lead times. One successful post-processing approach applied here has been the ECMWF “ecPoint” system. This can deliver finite probabilities for very large, localised totals that ordinarily the raw ensemble system cannot, and should not, predict itself. These have verified very well but could be considered less actionable by users because the probabilities delivered, for a point in a given gridbox, in advance of extreme events, are often very small (e.g. 1-5%). This presentation will outline three developments related to the ecPoint approach that make it more amenable to users by 1) providing an estimate of likely maxima within a gridbox, that 2) tailor better to flash flood risk than purely to rainfall totals by cross referencing a new global point-rainfall climatology, and that 3) demonstrate clear ‘financial’ utility even if probabilities are small, via computations of potential economic value. Case studies will be used for illustration.

How to cite: Pillosu, F., Hewson, T., and Zsoter, E.: Making Low Probability forecasts of High Impact Hydrological Events more useful for Society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18796, 2025.

EGU25-149 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

A Conceptual Prototype of an Urban Flood Early Warning System with High Spatial Resolution: A Study Case in São Paulo City 

Elton Vicente Escobar-Silva and Leonardo Bacelar Lima Santos

In 2022, the global population reached 8 billion, with 55% residing in urban areas. Projections for 2050 anticipate a growth to 9.77 billion, with approximately 6.6 billion people (nearly 68% of the world’s population) living in cities. Urban flooding emerges as a hazardous phenomenon affecting both developed and developing nations, endangering human lives and causing damage to properties, environmental degradation, and disruptions in economic and social activities, such as transportation systems and urban mobility. Addressing this challenge, Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWSs) can play a vital role in mitigating flood risks, enhancing absorptive capacity, and minimizing the impact of hazards, ultimately reducing the loss of life.

In this context, this project aims to create a prototype for a high spatial resolution flood early warning system that will identify flooding hotspots or zones in a pilot area (São Paulo City) and provide flood lead time at the urban micro-basins scale. The project will verify flood alerts by employing artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Furthermore, innovatively, the state of the art in this context will be explored for the national scenario. The anticipated outcomes are real-time geo-information of areas with higher flood risk, offering critical insights for effective response during such events. The project will advance scientific knowledge in this domain and provide a practical support tool for Civil Defense agents, decision-makers, and policymakers. The conceptual prototype developed in this initiative is envisaged to serve as a valuable resource for São Paulo City. Providing timely information empowers authorities to make informed decisions to contain and mitigate the impact of floods, fostering resilience in the face of this pressing environmental challenge.

How to cite: Escobar-Silva, E. V. and Santos, L. B. L.: A Conceptual Prototype of an Urban Flood Early Warning System with High Spatial Resolution: A Study Case in São Paulo City, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-149, 2025.

EGU25-302 | ECS | Orals | HS4.5

Assessing the riverine flood forecast skill of GloFAS and Google Flood Hub with impact data and river flow observations to support early actions in Mali 

Els Kuipers, Valentijn Oldenburg, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Phuoc Phung, Andrea Ficchì, and Marc van den Homberg

Riverine floods are among the most destructive and frequent natural hazards in Mali. To mitigate their impacts, the Mali Red Cross has implemented an anticipatory action mechanism that activates early responses when predefined triggers are met. Currently, the Early Action Protocol (EAP) relies on real-time water level observations from the National Directorate of Hydraulics (DNH) of Mali. Triggers are activated when upstream water levels exceed thresholds, which are extrapolated downstream along the river network using estimated propagation times as the lead time. The current EAP’s trigger model lacks meteorological inputs, limiting skilful  lead times to less than four days. Recent advancements in global operational flood forecasting systems present opportunities to enhance Mali's EAP by leveraging increasingly skilful medium-range weather forecasts as inputs of both physically-based models, as in the Copernicus Emergency Management Service's Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), and artificial intelligence-based models, like in Google Flood Hub. Incorporating forecasts from these models in Mali’s EAP could improve flood anticipation. This study evaluates the performance of the latest version of GloFAS (version 4) and Google Flood Hub alongside Mali’s current trigger model for the Niger and Senegal river basins in Mali. We evaluated hindcasted triggers aggregated to administrative units, using river flow observations and flood impact data, sourced from OCHA, EMDAT, DesInventar, DRPC Mali, DGPC Mali, CatNat, Relief, and a text-mining algorithm applied to newspaper articles. Model performance was assessed using Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) for different lead times and discharge return period thresholds. GloFAS and Google Flood Hub demonstrated similar skill in frequently flooded regions, suggesting that lead times can be extended beyond the four-day window. However, performance assessments are limited by the quality of impact data. This study highlights the potential and challenges of enhancing flood forecasting and anticipatory action in Mali. In the future, incorporating flood extent mapping may improve forecast value by pinpointing affected communities, and impact databases can be improved using satellite imagery, enhancing forecast assessments for early actions.

How to cite: Kuipers, E., Oldenburg, V., Sutanudjaja, E., Phung, P., Ficchì, A., and van den Homberg, M.: Assessing the riverine flood forecast skill of GloFAS and Google Flood Hub with impact data and river flow observations to support early actions in Mali, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-302, 2025.

EGU25-4063 | Orals | HS4.5

Impact-based flood early warning in Lao PDR and Cambodia 

Lorenzo Alfieri, Agathe Bucherie, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Mirko D'Andrea, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Simone Gabellani, Marco Massabò, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Bounteum Sisouphanthavong, Hun Sothy, Eva Trasforini, Ramesh Tripathi, and Jason Thomas Watkins

Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, with Southeast Asia being particularly vulnerable due to socioeconomic and geographical factors. Climate change exacerbates this vulnerability, increasing the frequency and intensity of flooding events and heightening the risks to millions of people and critical infrastructures. To address these challenges, disaster risk management is transitioning from traditional hazard-based to impact-based forecasting (IBF), which focuses on predicting the consequences of flood events. IBF emphasizes actionable insights, such as the number of people affected or disruptions to essential services, enabling more targeted early actions and decision-making.

This work shows the development and implementation of an operational impact-based flood forecasting and early warning system for five pilot river basins in Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). The system integrates the use of the Continuum distributed hydrological model (see Alfieri et al., 2024) calibrated with dedicated discharge measurements, 30 m resolution inundation maps generated for seven constant probabilities of occurrence with the REFLEX model (Arcorace et al., 2024), and a risk assessment model implemented for seven asset categories including direct economic damage on built-up, population affected, crop land affected, grazing land affected, roads affected, education facilities and health facilities affected. The system is updated twice daily with four different global and limited area numerical weather predictions (NWP), enabling forecasting of flood impacts up to five days ahead of their occurrence and thus assisting hydro-meteorological forecasters and disaster managers in their daily monitoring.

A key feature of this system is a co-production platform for generating standardized warning bulletins, allowing rapid dissemination of actionable information. This automation significantly reduces the time required for decision-making and prioritization during emergencies, enhancing disaster response capabilities. By aligning with international initiatives like the Sendai Framework and the Early Warnings for All, this system represents a critical advancement in flood risk management, promoting resilience and minimizing disaster impacts in Southeast Asia.

How to cite: Alfieri, L., Bucherie, A., Libertino, A., Campo, L., D'Andrea, M., Ghizzoni, T., Gabellani, S., Massabò, M., Rossi, L., Rudari, R., Sisouphanthavong, B., Sothy, H., Trasforini, E., Tripathi, R., and Watkins, J. T.: Impact-based flood early warning in Lao PDR and Cambodia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4063, 2025.

EGU25-5424 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

Development of surface water flood scenario catalogues for urban flood forecasting: A case study of le Jarret basin, Marseille. 

Akshay Kowlesser, Olivier Payrastre, Eric Gaume, and Pierre Nicolle

The development of efficient urban surface water flood forecasting systems is particularly challenging with respect to accurately anticipating the space-time location of heavy precipitations, and rapidly evaluating flood probabilities to issue timely alerts. This study presents an approach based on a pre-computed catalogue of flood inundation scenarios. This approach can serve as an intermediate alternative between basic rainfall threshold-based approaches, and computationally intensive real-time hydraulic simulations. The construction of the catalogue of flood scenarios is illustrated using the Jarret River basin in Marseille, France as a case study. The methodology uses a nine-year (2014-2023) radar rainfall reanalysis with 15-minute temporal and 1-kilometer spatial resolution to define a panel of representative rainfall hyetograph shapes for two-hour convective rainfall events of different return periods. A Telemac 2D hydrodynamic model via the CARTINO 2D approach is then used to obtain the flood scenarios related to each hyetograph. Two approaches are developed to build the hyetographs: (1) a temporal pattern analysis resulting in the distinction of three characteristic hyetograph shapes (short triangle, long triangle, rectangular), and (2) a monofrequency method using triangular hyetographs with consistent return periods across 15min to 2h durations, combined with a spatial attenuation according to the drainage areas impacted by each rainfall duration (cf. concentration times). Both approaches are applied for five return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years) under three antecedent moisture conditions, to generate flood catalogues including 45 and 15 scenarios respectively. The resulting catalogues demonstrate the significant influence of temporal rainfall variability on inundation patterns over small catchment areas. As a next step, both approaches will be integrated in an experimental forecasting chain, and be evaluated through the reanalysis of past events. These predefined flood catalogues offer a practical framework for rapid flood response in urban areas exposed to high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events.

How to cite: Kowlesser, A., Payrastre, O., Gaume, E., and Nicolle, P.: Development of surface water flood scenario catalogues for urban flood forecasting: A case study of le Jarret basin, Marseille., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5424, 2025.

EGU25-5862 | Orals | HS4.5

Catchment scale hydrodynamic flash flood simulation for early warning: insights from the 2021 Ahr flood event.  

Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, and Mario Morales-Hernández

The 2021 Ahr Valley flood during storm Bernd exemplifies the severity of flash floods and the challenges in flood risk and emergency management. This event underscores the growing threat of flash floods, even in regions where they are not traditionally considered common. The sudden, localized nature of flash floods makes early warning systems (EWS) critical. Failures in EWS played a relevant role during the Ahr floods and have likely played roles in other catastrophic events, such as the 2023 Libya floods under storm Daniel and the October 2024 floods in Valencia. Effective warnings require better, actionable information from flash flood models, a challenge due to the rapid onset of such events, the high resolution needed, and significant computational demands.

This study examines the application of the fully dynamic 2D shallow water solver SERGHEI, specifically designed for multi-GPU systems in large-scale High-Performance Computing environments. The focus is on simulating the rainfall-runoff process and subsequent flooding during the 2021 Ahr floods.

In earlier work, we explored flood propagation dynamics in the lower Ahr valley using SERGHEI at a very high resolution of 1m. We showed that simulations could be performed quickly enough for early warning, but with two key limitations. Firstly, since the domain only includes the lower valley, an inflow hydrograph is required at the upstream boundary to force the model. When performing forecasts for early warning, such inflow hydrograph would need to be generated by some hydrological model for the catchment down to the point of inflow, thus requiring a modelling chain. Second, the domain of interest for flood impact modelling, and thus the location for the hydrograph generation, is a priori unknown.

To address these limitations, we scale up the simulation by simultaneously modelling runoff generation and flood propagation over the entire catchment (900 km2). We perform SERGHEI simulations informing the model with a 1m resolution DTM, and openly available land cover, land use and soil data to parametrise hydraulic roughness and infiltration processes. The model is forced using radar precipitation measurements (1km spatial resolution 5 minutes temporal resolution). The target simulation resolution is 1m, leading to a computational grid of ~900 million cells, requiring 128 A100 GPUs in the JUWELS supercomputer, running roughly 5x faster-than-real-time. To perform sensitivity analysis to the infiltration and roughness parameters, we perform simulations at 5m resolution, for which the 36 million cell domain only required 16 GPUs to perform computations ~45x faster than real time. We also explore other resolutions to understand the effects of resolution on the quality of the forecast, computational resources and attainable lead time.

The results show the tradeoffs among modelling approaches for this event and demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of this approach for early warning in flash flood events. They underscore the maturity of the technology and provide strong arguments for using it to augment existing operational flood forecasts, while still achieving excellent lead times and far better detailed flood impact forecasting.

How to cite: Caviedes-Voullième, D., Khosh Bin Ghomash, S., and Morales-Hernández, M.: Catchment scale hydrodynamic flash flood simulation for early warning: insights from the 2021 Ahr flood event. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5862, 2025.

EGU25-8134 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

Explainability of rainfall-runoff events based on radar and station based rainfall observations 

Adina Brandt and Uwe Haberlandt

Intense rainfall events with high intensities over short durations frequently result in substantial runoff and increased potential for flooding in affected catchments. The accurate assessment of flood hazards remains challenging due to the high variability of rainfall dynamics and their spatial distributions. Rain gauge stations provide precise point measurements; however, they lack information on the spatial distribution of rainfall. Conversely, weather radar offers high-resolution spatial and temporal rainfall data but is subject to biases and uncertainties that require correction.

Previous studies have predominantly focused on pointwise comparisons of rainfall data products. In contrast, this study utilizes data from 109 catchments in Lower Saxony, Germany, to evaluate the ability of station-based and radar-derived rainfall data (using the corrected Radklim product from the German Weather Service) to explain and classify observed runoff events. These events are categorized as Flash Floods, Short-Rain Floods or Long-Rain Floods and the quality of the rainfall data is analyzed in relation to these classifications. Furthermore, the study investigates whether significant runoff events can be exclusively explained by one rainfall data source.

By comparing catchment-averaged rainfall from stations and radar, this research highlights the strengths and limitations of both data types in representing rainfall-runoff relationships. The findings will contribute to improved flood hazard assessment and emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate rainfall datasets for hydrological analyses and early warning systems.

How to cite: Brandt, A. and Haberlandt, U.: Explainability of rainfall-runoff events based on radar and station based rainfall observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8134, 2025.

EGU25-11063 | ECS | Orals | HS4.5

Quantifying Uncertainty in Flash Flood Forecasting using Ensemble Methods and Sensitivity Analysis 

Arne Reinecke, Andreas Hänsler, Markus Weiler, Hannes Leistert, Max Schmit, Andreas Steinbrich, Ingo Haag, Julia Krumm, Janek Zimmer, Nena Grießinger, Bettina Huth, Thomas Brendt, Yan Liu, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, and Insa Neuweiler

Short-term flood and inundation forecasts are challenging due to the short lead time of convective heavy rainfall events and the associated uncertainties of input data or model initial conditions. These uncertainties propagate along the forecast chain to uncertainties of the prediction of flooding extents, flow regimes, and, eventually, potential damages. Within the research project AVOSS (funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research) the aim is to quantify the contribution of the accompanying uncertainties of the individual forecast components. Hence, we focus on the uncertainties of the input variables particularly precipitation variability, soil moisture and soil properties, and urban drainage system effects as well as associated model and parameter uncertainties.

The applied forecast model chain consists of three parts. The first part is an ensemble based radar forecast of the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall intensity. In a second part hydrological models are used to predict surface runoff formation based on the rainfall forecasts and pre-event soil moisture estimates. To capture the variety of different model approaches, two different hydrological models (RoGeR [1] and LARSIM [2]) were used. In a third step, the ensemble of surface runoff estimates from the hydrological models were then used to calculate inundation depths, flow velocities and local discharge applying a hydraulic surrogate model based on neural networks. The surrogate model was trained using a large ensemble of hydrodynamically simulated runoff scenarios generated by the 2D-hydraulic model HydroAS [3]. Uncertainties underlying the 2D-hydraulic model were considered by repeating a subset of hydraulic simulations with two additional hydraulic models.

We applied the forecast approach to an urbanized catchment at the foothills of the Black Forest, Germany, with a catchment extend of about 20 km². Based on the short computation time of the neural network model, which has been found to provide good reproductions of maximum water depths, maximum flow velocities, and maximum discharges, the setup enables the production of large forecast ensemble, suitable for a profound uncertainty estimate. In order to systematically evaluate and rank the influence of the input, parameter and model uncertainties along the forecast chain, a sensitivity analysis using Sobol Indices was carried out with the SAFE toolbox [4].

The results demonstrate which uncertainties plays the dominant role in short-term flash flood forecasting. Our study also enhances knowledge about the overall uncertainties for real events and their specific quantitative effects in pluvial flash floods. Furthermore, we identified the most relevant factors to be considered for the design of real-time flood hazard maps and subsequent damage forecasts. This ultimately has the potential to create more reliable predictions for pluvial flash floods and provide insights for decision-making under uncertainty.

 

[1] Steinbrich et al. (2016): Model-based quantification of runoff generation processes at high spatial and temporal resolution. Environmental Earth Sciences (2016) 75:1423.

[2] Bremicker (2000). Das Wasserhaushaltsmodell LARSIM: Modellgrundlagen und Anwendungsbeispiele. Institut für Hydrologie der Universität Freiburg.

[3] Hydrotec mbH (2021): 2D-Strömungsmodell für die wasserwirtschaftliche Praxis.

[4] Pianosi et al. (2015), A Matlab toolbox for Global Sensitivity Analysis, Environmental Modelling & Software, 70, 80-85.

How to cite: Reinecke, A., Hänsler, A., Weiler, M., Leistert, H., Schmit, M., Steinbrich, A., Haag, I., Krumm, J., Zimmer, J., Grießinger, N., Huth, B., Brendt, T., Liu, Y., Hendricks-Franssen, H.-J., and Neuweiler, I.: Quantifying Uncertainty in Flash Flood Forecasting using Ensemble Methods and Sensitivity Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11063, 2025.

EGU25-11710 | Posters on site | HS4.5

Development of a Web-Based Early-Warning System for Seasonal Hydrogeological Drought Prediction and Assessment of Water Resource Resilience in a Transboundary Karst System 

Alireza Kavousi, Margarita Saft, Ulrich Maier, Irina Engelhardt, Assaf Hochman, Micha Gebel, Peter Dietrich, and Martin Sauter

Quantification and prediction of droughts have mainly been focused on the surface and/or meteorological components of the water cycle due to the complex nature of subsurface processes and limited observational data on the hydrogeological component of the water cycle. A web-based Early Warning System (EWS) has been developed to predict seasonal hydrogeological droughts and to assess the resilience of subsurface water resources in the West Bank transboundary karst system, which encompasses the territories of Israel and the Palestinian regions of the West Bank. This innovative tool integrates the monthly-released seasonal weather prediction data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service with a surrogate hydrogeological model to predict the functioning of the karst hydrogeological system and characterize its potential drought conditions. A multi-model ensemble (MME) of daily seasonal predictions has been considered to quantify the spatiotemporal uncertainty of daily climatic variables, which subsequently translates to recharge, storage, and discharge in the subsurface, to be highlighted as the ranges of hydrogeological drought indices. The surrogate deep auto-regressive neural network model (Deep-AR-Net), is utilized to reduce the computational burden of a process-based variably-saturated double-permeability model of the region. The EWS incorporates multiple variables of the MME, including precipitation and temperature, along with flow observations on groundwater levels and spring discharges, to predict hydrogeological conditions during the upcoming six months via Deep-AR-Net. The EWS presents results through an interactive map interface and graphical displays, allowing water resource managers to visualize potential droughts and compare predictions against established drought index thresholds. The development of the EWS is a significant advancement in hydrogeological drought prediction and water resource management for karst systems in arid and semi-arid region. By providing a shared platform for data analysis and visualization, it facilitates collaborative decision-making and helps to prevent potential conflicts related to water use in this sensitive region, which has always been under significant water stress and political tension. More specifically, it will support water managers and policymakers as a powerful instrument to enhance drought preparedness, optimize water allocation, and implement timely mitigation strategies in the face of increasing climate variability and water scarcity.

How to cite: Kavousi, A., Saft, M., Maier, U., Engelhardt, I., Hochman, A., Gebel, M., Dietrich, P., and Sauter, M.: Development of a Web-Based Early-Warning System for Seasonal Hydrogeological Drought Prediction and Assessment of Water Resource Resilience in a Transboundary Karst System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11710, 2025.

EGU25-13608 | Orals | HS4.5

Towards operational flash flood early warning for an arid watershed in Oman based on hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting 

Jens Grundmann, Michael Wagner, Jonas Wischnewski, Badar Al-Jahwari, and Ghazi Al-Rawas

Reliable warnings and forecasts of extreme precipitation and resulting floods are an important prerequisite for disaster managers to initiate flood defence measures. Thus, disaster managers are interested in extended forecast lead times, which can be obtained by employing forecasts of numerical weather models as driving data for hydrological models. Especially in arid environments, warning and forecasting systems are often missing. Challenges arise due to the short response time of watersheds and the uncertainties of the meteorological forecasts. Thus, ensemble forecasts of precipitation are an option to portray these inherent uncertainties.

This study aims to explore the usability of a global numeric weather forecast model for flash flood early warning and present our operational web-based demonstration platform for hydro-meteorological ensemble flash flood forecasting for the Wadi Al-Hawasinah in North Al-Batina region in Oman. We use the ICON-EPS product of the German Weather Service, a global weather forecast model, which provides an ensemble of 40 members each six hours. If predefined extreme precipitation thresholds are exceeded in the region, a rainfall-runoff model tailored on arid hydrology conditions is started to propagate the meteorological uncertainty into the resulting runoff, followed by statistical post processing and visualization for flash flood early warning. Different options for the visualization of the uncertainty information are presented like rainfall quantile maps, exceedance probabilities and traffic light cards. However, the current design of the web-based demonstration platform is based on an iterative stakeholder process, which is still ongoing.

Based on the current setup of the forecasting system, forecast lead times of up to 48 hours are achieved. Furthermore, due to its flexible structure the hydrologic model can be easily exchanged to more advanced 2D-surface routing and inundation modelling approaches.

Besides layout and technical issues, first experiences with the demonstration platform are presented as well as first results regarding forecast performance in this study area as a pilot study. Finally, we discuss the system’s limitations, particularly the absence of real-time observations, and propose potential solutions to address these gaps.

How to cite: Grundmann, J., Wagner, M., Wischnewski, J., Al-Jahwari, B., and Al-Rawas, G.: Towards operational flash flood early warning for an arid watershed in Oman based on hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13608, 2025.

EGU25-13867 | Posters on site | HS4.5

Bridging Risk Knowledge and Early Action: using conceptual risk models to advance impact-based early warning for floods and droughts in eastern Africa. 

Davide Cotti, Maria Bernadet Karina Dewi, Samira Pfeiffer, Augustine Kiptum, Saskia Werners, and Michael Hagenlocher

Impact-based early warning (IbEW) is a novel paradigm that aims at improving the efficacy of early warning systems by informing about potential impacts on people, assets and systems, instead of only focusing only forecasting hazards. While applications are emerging, multiple challenges still remain to develop risk-informed, impact-based warnings that are useful for triggering early actions. Conceptual risk models, such as impact chains or impact webs, are tools increasingly used in risk assessments to inform risk management and adaptation, and can provide useful guidance also for IbEW and early action. By identifying the interconnections between drivers of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, they can improve the understanding of possible impacts and risks, thus allowing for a more targeted inclusion of risk information into IbEW. Moreover, through their focus on vulnerability, they can also be used to link the warnings with early actions, highlighting capacities and barriers. Using case studies in Kenya and Ethiopia and the wider IGAD region of Greater Horn of Africa, we have constructed conceptual risk models for different risks connected to droughts and floods: the models provide detailed representations of the interaction of drivers of risk, conducive to specific potential impacts of interest in the context of impact-based early warning (e.g. risk of crop yield loss due to drought). Moreover, in the models we also introduce examples of risk profiles, i.e. characteristics of vulnerability for specific at-risk groups: these can help identifying capacities and barriers of those who need to act on the early actions that are informed by IbEW. This information is essential in order to design warnings that are understandable and actionable by people on the ground. The models were also used to inform the development of an IbEW methodology, currently being implemented at the regional level to cover multiple risks connected to droughts and floods.

How to cite: Cotti, D., Dewi, M. B. K., Pfeiffer, S., Kiptum, A., Werners, S., and Hagenlocher, M.: Bridging Risk Knowledge and Early Action: using conceptual risk models to advance impact-based early warning for floods and droughts in eastern Africa., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13867, 2025.

EGU25-14500 | Orals | HS4.5

Challenges and opportunities in the harmonization of trigger models for Anticipatory Action; a multi-hazard and multi-agency perspective 

Sahara Sedhain, Daniele Castellana, Gal Agmon, Tal Rosenthal, Emie Klein Holkenborg, Marc van den Homberg, and Norman Kerle

Disaster risk financing has seen a transformative approach through Anticipatory Action (AA), designed to reduce shock and impact of multiple hazards on vulnerable population. The core of AA relies on pre-agreed triggering mechanisms, that are built around impact-based forecasts (IBF) and tailored to local contexts, determining when, where, and what interventions are required. While numerous humanitarian actors have adopted AA in the recent years, they often work in silos, employing varying definitions, methodologies, and processes, which complicates and reduces opportunities for collaboration. Additionally, the lack of standardization and transparency in trigger models limits comparability and potential for scaling efforts effectively. 

The ECHO-funded project, led by the Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) secretariat addresses these challenges by fostering dialogue and coordination among regional actors in Southern Africa. Through stakeholder engagement and technical assessment, the project seeks to harmonize AA trigger methodologies, by developing an inventory of existing frameworks and co-designing a knowledge management platform to enhance information sharing and operational alignment.

Initial results highlight the diverse landscape of AA in the region. The project’s first phase assembled 43 anticipatory action frameworks spanning eight countries and seven hazards, uncovering a mix of hazard-based and impact-based triggers. Funding sources for these frameworks include multilateral mechanisms, pooled funds, and bilateral arrangements, reflecting the diversity of financial arrangements to support AA initiatives. Gaps were noted in accessing comprehensive technical details and past trigger activation data, which is now being addressed through targeted surveys and forms. Stakeholder interviews highlighted growing collaboration, but also the challenges that remain in navigating the various triggers and processes and accessing timely information through an integrated platform. A prototype knowledge management platform was developed and refined based on user feedback, aiming to improve transparency and coordination at both technical and operational levels.  

These characterizations and stakeholders’ insights highlight critical gaps, opportunities for harmonizing trigger methodologies, and pathways for cross-agency collaboration. Building on this work, future research will explore the global landscape of AA through systematic literature review, mapping the current frameworks, assessing the operational maturity and identifying challenges and opportunities for scaling up. These findings will provide a foundation to evaluate and align technical, operational and financial aspects of AA.   

How to cite: Sedhain, S., Castellana, D., Agmon, G., Rosenthal, T., Klein Holkenborg, E., van den Homberg, M., and Kerle, N.: Challenges and opportunities in the harmonization of trigger models for Anticipatory Action; a multi-hazard and multi-agency perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14500, 2025.

EGU25-15448 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

Hybrid AI and Storage Function Model for Accurate Flood Hydrograph Prediction During Typhoon Rainfall Events 

Chia-Yu Hsu, Chia-Yao Huang, Fi-John Chang, and Li-Chiu Chang

Accurate flood hydrograph prediction during typhoon-induced heavy rainfall events is crucial for flood risk management, particularly in critical catchments such as the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in Taiwan. The Shihmen Reservoir plays a pivotal role in flood control, water supply, and hydroelectric power generation, making reliable flow predictions essential for its effective operation during extreme weather events.

This study addresses the challenges of long-duration flood hydrograph prediction by developing a hybrid model that integrates an AI-based Rainfall-Runoff Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (RNARX) model and a hydrological storage function model. While the RNARX model effectively estimates flow during active rainfall periods using rainfall as the primary input, its performance diminishes post-rainfall when rainfall values drop to zero, leading to rapid underestimation of flow. In contrast, the storage function model provides reliable flow predictions during the recession phase but tends to overestimate flows during intense rainfall events.

By seamlessly combining these two models and defining conditions for model transitions, the hybrid approach ensures robust performance across the entire flood hydrograph. Applied to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed, the hybrid model demonstrates significant improvements in predicting long-duration flood flows, particularly for high-intensity typhoon rainfall events.

This integrated modeling approach enhances real-time flood forecasting, offering valuable insights for optimizing reservoir operations and mitigating flood risks in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed, a region of critical hydrological and socio-economic importance.

 

Keywords: Hybrid Modeling, Artificial Intelligence (AI),Storage Function Model, Flood Hydrograph Prediction, Flood Risk Management

How to cite: Hsu, C.-Y., Huang, C.-Y., Chang, F.-J., and Chang, L.-C.: Hybrid AI and Storage Function Model for Accurate Flood Hydrograph Prediction During Typhoon Rainfall Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15448, 2025.

EGU25-15886 | ECS | Orals | HS4.5

People-centric impact forecasts: Predicting flood-induced loss of access to health services in the Greater Horn of Africa 

Luca Severino, Evelyn Mühlhofer, Nishadh Kalladath, Ahmed Amdihun, and David, N. Bresch

Roads and healthcare facilities are critical in providing populations with basic health services. However, such critical infrastructures and the services they provide can be greatly disturbed when major natural hazards hit. Knowing which roads are still functional and where population could suffer from a loss of access to basic services before the unfolding of a hazardous event could be of great help for local authorities and for actors involved in disaster preparedness and relief.

We develop an impact forecast model aiming at predicting 1) which roads and healthcare facilities become nonfunctional in the event of a flood hazard and 2) where are populations at risk of losing access to health services. 

We combine the open-source weather and climate risk assessment model CLIMADA with flood forecasts to estimate the damage to roads and healthcare facilities and their resulting loss of functionality. We assess how the flood damage results in loss of access to health services for the population using a service-access model. We select several case studies of floods in the Greater Horn of Africa to illustrate the model's skill and fit of purpose. We use remote sensing data from the United Nations' disasters' charter mission and text reports from the International Federation of the Red Cross to compare modeled with observed impacts. We use an uncertainty and sensitivity quantification module available within the CLIMADA platform to study the sources of uncertainty in the impact forecasts, varying the input flood forecasts, exposures layers, impact functions, and parameters of the service-access module.

This research illustrates the potential benefits and challenges of a people-centric impact forecast in the context of flood hazard and showcases the development and calibration of an impact forecast model using open-source data and models.

How to cite: Severino, L., Mühlhofer, E., Kalladath, N., Amdihun, A., and Bresch, D. N.: People-centric impact forecasts: Predicting flood-induced loss of access to health services in the Greater Horn of Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15886, 2025.

EGU25-16546 | ECS | Orals | HS4.5

Drought impact-based forecasting of crop yield in India 

Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Sameer Uttarwar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Bruno Majone, Alok Samantaray, Federico Stainoh, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, and Gabriele Messori

The reliable prediction of drought impacts on crop yield in India poses a significant challenge due to the complex interactions of climatic variables, systems vulnerabilities and impacts propagation. Addressing this challenge requires advanced methods, such as impact-based forecasting, to account for these complexities. In this study, we leveraged remote sensing-based vegetation indicators as proxies for crop yield, along with multiple drought indices across various accumulation periods, to establish a robust indicator-impact relationship. A cluster analysis was performed to group districts, followed by a comparative evaluation of various machine-learning algorithms (Random Forest, XGBoost, Artificial Neural Network) to assess their efficacy in predicting crop yield impacts on a subseasonal-to-seasonal scale. We finally evaluated the accuracy of predicting the crop yield impacts based on drought indices computed from ECMWF’s seasonal forecast system SEAS5.

Our analysis highlights the importance of key predictors, uncovers seasonal trends and spatio-temporal patterns in indicator-impact relationships, and marks a pioneering effort in comparing diverse machine-learning algorithms for establishing an impact-based forecasting model at lead times of 1 to 6 months. As such, these findings offer valuable insights into the dynamics of drought impacts on crop yield, providing a monitoring tool and a foundational basis for implementing targeted drought mitigation actions within the agricultural sector. This research contributes to advancing the understanding of impact-based forecasting models and their practical application in addressing the challenges associated with drought impacts on crop yield in India.

How to cite: Shyrokaya, A., Uttarwar, S., Di Baldassarre, G., Majone, B., Samantaray, A., Stainoh, F., Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, I., and Messori, G.: Drought impact-based forecasting of crop yield in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16546, 2025.

EGU25-16556 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

Extreme Rainfall vs Dam Safety: A Study on Dam Failures in India 

Subbarao Pichuka and Dinesh Roulo

Dam failures pose significant risks to life, property, and nature. Overtopping is the most frequent cause of dam failure, typically triggered by extreme rainfall events. The increasing frequency and magnitudes of such events, driven by climate change, further amplify these risks. This study investigates the effect of extreme rainfall patterns on 20 Dam Failure (DF) cases in India. Daily rainfall data are obtained from the India Meteorological Department, Pune, for 120 years and divided into four 30-year periods, i.e., ‘Epoch’ (Epoch-1: 1901–1930, Epoch-2: 1931–1960, Epoch-3: 1961–1990, Epoch-4: 1991–2020). The location-specisfic rainfall data is computed using the Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation method. The dates of DFs are sourced from the Central Water Commission, State Water Resources Departments, and other literature.

First, the 5-day Accumulated Rainfall (ACR5) prior to the date of DF is computed, and compared with the ACR5 of other years prior to DF during the same dates. Interestingly, none of the value exceeds the ACR5 of DF year in most of the locations. It denotes that these dams failed due to the accumulated effect of consecutive heavy rainfall events, which were not anticipated by the respective dam authority to prepare for safeguarding the dam through suitable operations.

Second, the trends in the rainfall distribution over each epoch are analyzed by computing the normal rainfall (30-year averaged annual rainfall). The severity of ACR5 with respect to normal rainfall (respective epoch in which DF occurred) is examined. It is noticed that the proportion of ACR5 with that of normal rainfall varied between 30%-90%. This means a huge magnitude of rainfall occurred in just 5 days. Therefore, it is indicated that the ACR5 played a crucial role in the failure of most of the dams considered in this study.

Third, the study also introduced the Efficiency Factor (EF), defined as the ratio of maximum daily rainfall to Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The value of EF above 0.85 poses a severe threat to dams and could result in DF. The vital conclusion from this study is that the dam owners will be notified at least 5 days prior to the dam failure, which is sufficient to take suitable measures for safe reservoir operations. The major limitation of this study is that the date of DF is not known for existing dam locations. However, the advanced weather forecasting models are providing reliable information for 5 to 7-day rainfall estimates, which will enable us to know the critical ACR5. Moreover, the systematic analysis offers a data-driven approach to improve dam safety protocols and enhance resilience against extreme rainfall events. The findings are particularly relevant for professionals in dam engineering, supporting informed decision-making in dam design, operation, and management.

How to cite: Pichuka, S. and Roulo, D.: Extreme Rainfall vs Dam Safety: A Study on Dam Failures in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16556, 2025.

EGU25-17698 | Posters on site | HS4.5

Enhancing global flood forecasts in Southern Africa using Deep Learning: A user-oriented evaluation for anticipatory actions 

Andrea Ficchì, Mohid Fayaz Mir, and Andrea Castelletti

Global hydrological forecasting systems, such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, are operationally used to inform early warning and early action, particularly in large transboundary river basins and data scarce regions. Humanitarian organizations often integrate these global forecasting systems with local information to assist national mandated agencies in the disaster risk management chain. However, limitations in the skill of global systems restrict their operational adoption and constrain the lead times available for implementing early actions. Recent advances in AI models offer promising solutions to overcome these limitations, by complementing operational physics-based models like GloFAS with hybrid or fully data-driven systems. Despite an increasing number of studies showing the potential of such AI models, there is an urgent need of providing user-oriented evidence of the added value of these solutions in order to increase their operational uptake. Here we explore the application of a deep learning model, based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, to improve the forecasts of GloFAS to support humanitarian anticipatory actions. Different LSTM architectures and loss functions are tested to develop alternative post-processing models of GloFAS, using historical forecasts of river flows, past errors and catchment characteristics as inputs, to improve the prediction of daily streamflows up to a 7-day lead time. The post-processing model is developed with both a single-site and multi-site approach, showing a comparable performance in cross-validation, using streamflow observations as reference. The improvements in skill and value of the flood forecasts of GloFAS are demonstrated for anticipatory actions in Southern Africa (Zambezi River Basin and coastal areas of Mozambique), a region that is highly exposed to frequent tropical cyclones and consequent floods. Using the LSTM-based post-processing, the large biases of GloFAS in this region are substantially reduced and the skillful lead times are extended significantly. We assess the added value of the hybrid forecasts within the framework of the current Red Cross Early Action Protocol for floods in Mozambique, considering user-oriented metrics, including False Alarm Ratios and Hit Rates, and a valuation framework of early actions. Our findings highlight the critical importance of evaluating hybrid forecasting models based on user-oriented criteria and assessing their value to select the most cost-effective solution to support anticipatory actions. Finally, we discuss the potential of our hybrid approach to scale up anticipatory actions in data scarce regions and how ongoing work focusing on post-processing flood hazard maps may further improve forecast value for early actions.

How to cite: Ficchì, A., Fayaz Mir, M., and Castelletti, A.: Enhancing global flood forecasts in Southern Africa using Deep Learning: A user-oriented evaluation for anticipatory actions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17698, 2025.

EGU25-18842 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.5

Evaluation and optimization of a site-specific early warning tool for flood hazards in Catalonia, Spain 

Ahmed Elhabashy, Shinju Park, and Daniel Sempere-Torres

Heavy rainfall events have become increasingly frequent in recent decades, often triggering severe floodings that pose significant challenges to urban and rural communities. Consequently, robust early warning systems have emerged as a key strategy for adaptation and mitigation measures. The risks and impacts of flooding can vary significantly even within small geographic areas due to factors such as terrain, urban infrastructure, and drainage systems, as well as the sporadic nature of rainfall. Site-specific flood warning tools address local variations by providing warnings tailored to each area's unique conditions. These tools can help decision-makers and emergency responders navigate multiple challenges, improve preparedness for extreme events, and promote public awareness of flood risks.

Catalonia, located in northeast Spain and characterized by a Mediterranean climate, is occasionally affected by intense rainfall episodes. Severe flash floods have caused significant damage in recent years, leaving communities grappling with the aftermath, such as the case of Terrassa municipality in 2023 and 2024. A real-time, site-specific, flood early warning tool has already been applied in pilot locations in Catalonia within the Horizon Europe RESIST project (2023-2027). The tool integrates real-time and forecasted meteorological data to issue flood hazard warnings for vulnerable locations. In this study, we focus on a methodology for evaluating and optimizing the warning tool to minimize false alarms and missed events. Evaluation is essential to ensure the reliability and usability of the tool and build the trust of end-users, particularly emergency responders and affected communities. We present an evaluation of the tool’s different components, including the warning level thresholds, the integration of different data sources, and lead time analysis. Optimization, on the other hand, involves refining algorithms, integrating additional local data sources tailoring the tool to specific local characteristics, and incorporating feedback from end-users.

How to cite: Elhabashy, A., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Evaluation and optimization of a site-specific early warning tool for flood hazards in Catalonia, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18842, 2025.

EGU25-19188 | Posters on site | HS4.5

Evaluation of 15-months of flash flood impact forecasts over Europe 

Marc Berenguer and Shinju Park

The EDERA project, funded by the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, has focused on the use of real-time products for forecasting and monitoring the impacts of storms, heavy rainfall and flash floods to support emergency management. The project ran a 15 months demonstration in real time with European coverage and involved the participation of several end-users (with responsibilities at regional or national level). The study presents the main results obtained during the demonstration period from the point of view of the skill of the products to identify/anticipate the occurrence of the most significant events, and the magnitude of the resulting impacts.

How to cite: Berenguer, M. and Park, S.: Evaluation of 15-months of flash flood impact forecasts over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19188, 2025.

EGU25-19870 | Posters on site | HS4.5

Operational and actionable Acute Food Insecurity modelling  

Melissande Machefer, Michele Ronco, Anne-Claire Thomas, Michele Meroni, Jose Manuel Veiga Lopez-Pena, Michael Assouline, Melanie Rabier, Gustau Camps-Valls, Vasileios Sitokonstantinou, Jordi Cerda, Esther Rodrigo Bonet, Alessia Matano, Tim Busker, Nicolas Rost, Kim Chungmann, Duccio Piovani, Christina Corbane, and Felix Rembold

The growing complexity of global food security, exacerbated by climate change and socio-economic disparities, calls for a multi-hazard approach to risk evaluation and management. Recognizing the lack of a universally accepted measure for food insecurity covering all dimensions, we first review target variables and input features in existing ML modeling efforts, providing an assessment of current data availability, accessibility, and fragmentation, and improving the understanding of possibilities and limitations of ML for the food security community.  We further consolidate a comprehensive dataset, with an operational design for continuous enrichment, that includes various indicators and precursors, updated monthly on a subnational level across over one hundred countries. We apply innovative explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods to unravel the intricate relationships between food insecurity, drought, and conflict-related fatalities. Our models forecast food crises with different lead times, revealing the nuanced patterns recognized by machine learning algorithms over various time frames. Our analysis also shows that the relative importance of drivers can shift depending on the food security metric used, indicating that distinct processes are at play in its many dimensions. This study not only exposes the complex drivers of food security but also provides policymakers with an operational multi-risk forecasting tool, improving the ability to foresee and strategically manage food crises. 

 

How to cite: Machefer, M., Ronco, M., Thomas, A.-C., Meroni, M., Veiga Lopez-Pena, J. M., Assouline, M., Rabier, M., Camps-Valls, G., Sitokonstantinou, V., Cerda, J., Rodrigo Bonet, E., Matano, A., Busker, T., Rost, N., Chungmann, K., Piovani, D., Corbane, C., and Rembold, F.: Operational and actionable Acute Food Insecurity modelling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19870, 2025.

Despite the increasing availability of data from various sources, it remains difficult for humanitarians and governments to respond adequately and quickly to unfolding humanitarian crises.  One of the problems that causes this, is the challenge that decision-makers face in assessing the impact of a given shock or hazard on the local population. Therefore, a major issue for the development of early warning systems for humanitarian action lies in contextualizing the data to go from a specific hazard or shock event to its impact on the local population. Given these problems and the developments in AI and data-driven modelling in the past decade, there are many hopes that AI can close this information gap. 

However, many scholars and practitioners are apprehensive about using (often complex) data-driven models for actual humanitarian decision-making in practice, and rightfully so. Different documented cases from the public sector such as the Dutch child-benefit scandal or the American COMPAS case have shown what harm the irresponsible use of AI-informed decision-making can do to already vulnerable and marginalized populations. Thus, the question remains how to responsibly develop data-driven models that are useful to the humanitarian community.

In our trans-disciplinary research in collaboration with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), we spent a year exploring this question in a case study on how data-driven models impact the IPC's decision-making process on Acute Food Insecurity analysis updates. Using a human-centered design approach, we systematically analysed the current IPC decision-making process and their information needs and evaluated existing food insecurity models with respect to their suitability, while simultaneously conducting literature research on how to develop AI solutions in a value-driven way. These explorations indicated that the common approaches to developing data-driven models, as well as existing theoretical frameworks with regard to responsible AI implementation, have clear mismatches and shortcomings compared to what may be needed in practice. From this, we draw several lessons on how to improve, so that models for humanitarian decision-making can bring actionable insights, are understandable by its end-users, and embody the humanitarian values.

How to cite: Roelvink, M., Liem, C., and Comes, T.: Responsibly developing data-driven models for humanitarian decision-making: our research on AI for Food Security Monitoring and what we can learn from it, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20144, 2025.

EGU25-21609 | ECS | Orals | HS4.5

Opportunities and challenges for Rainfall Nowcasting with Commercial Microwave Links in the Tropics 

Bas Walraven, Ruben Imhoff, Aart Overeem, Miriam Coenders, Rolf Hut, Luuk van der Valk, and Remko Uijlenhoet

In general, quantitative precipitation estimates from weather radars are used as input into nowcasting models to produce high-resolution accurate and timely precipitation forecasts, up to several hours ahead. However, the global distribution of high-resolution (gauge-adjusted, ground- based) weather radar products is heavily skewed, largely favoring Europe, Northern America, and parts of East Asia. In many low- and middle-income countries, predominantly located in the tropics, weather radars are largely unavailable due to high installation and maintenance costs, and rain gauges are often scarce, poorly maintained, or not available in (near) real-time. A viable and ‘opportunistic’ source of high-resolution space-time rainfall estimates is based on the rain-induced signal attenuation experienced by commercial microwave links (CMLs) in cellular communication networks. In this study we investigate whether 2D rainfall fields created by interpolating path- averaged rainfall intensities from CMLs can be used as a standalone input into a conventional nowcasting algorithm, pySTEPS.

This work is based on a CML network from Sri Lanka. The data set spans 15 months across 2019 and 2020. For each of the four monsoon seasons represented in the data set we define extreme events of different duration, ranging from 1 to 24 hours. These events are used as input to create probabilistic nowcasts in pySTEPS for lead times up to three hours. The nowcasts are evaluated spatially against the QPE at multiple catchments, and using 21 hourly rain gauges as an independent point reference source. We address challenges surrounding the nature of the input data, dealing with sparse or unequal CML coverage, and how to handle this in pySTEPS. Based on our findings we also highlight where other remotely sensed rainfall estimates, for example from geostationary satellites, can be used to complement CML based rainfall estimates to provide more accurate nowcasts.

In summary, this novel application of CMLs, essentially providing a ‘weather radar’ in the tropics, highlights the potential impact for operational early warning services in regions that lack dedicated rainfall sensors.

How to cite: Walraven, B., Imhoff, R., Overeem, A., Coenders, M., Hut, R., van der Valk, L., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Opportunities and challenges for Rainfall Nowcasting with Commercial Microwave Links in the Tropics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21609, 2025.

EGU25-942 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.6

Analyzing the influence of spatial rainfall variability on reservoir outflow through interpretable data-driven modelling: an application in Tropical mountain basin 

María José Merizalde, Gerald Corzo, Esteban Samaniego, Paul Muñoz, and Rolando Célleri

Spatial rainfall variability directly impacts hydrological basin responses, especially in regions with complex interactions between hydrometeorological phenomena and physical factors. Understanding this influence supports the development of more accurate flow forecasting models, enhancing practical applications in water resources management. However, current studies often overlook the effect of rainfall spatial distribution on forecasting outcomes, despite its critical role in shaping hydrological responses. Such forecasts are essential for planning water distribution across sectors like human consumption, agriculture, and energy generation. In Latin America and the Caribbean, where hydropower supplies approximately half of the region's electricity, accurate forecasts are crucial. Ecuador, for instance, relies on hydropower for over 85% of its energy needs, underscoring the necessity for reliable hydrological forecasts, particularly in the Andean tropical mountain basins where major hydropower plants are located. One of the most important hydropower systems in the country, supplied by its largest reservoir, currently lacks an operational hydrological forecast to support its management, which is urgently needed due to the ongoing drought conditions impacting hydropower production. To address this, we developed data-driven models, known for their ability to handle data complexity and outperform conceptual or physical models in scenarios with high complexity and limited precise data, which is characteristic of our study area. These models analyze the influence of spatial rainfall variability on reservoir outflow forecasting using an interpretable approach to identify the most impactful rainfall data configurations. We employed satellite-based rainfall data from IMERG and GSMaP, which have shown promising results in nearby basins, across five top-down configurations: mean rainfall, climatological rainfall regions, seasonal clusters, travel time regions, and spatially distributed data. The models, based on neural networks including (RNN) Recurrent Neural Networks and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) architectures, are configured to provide forecasts from hourly to daily scales across these scenarios, supporting practical operational applications. Initial experiments indicate strong model performance, with NSE values ranging from 0.9 to 0.45 for hourly forecasts at lead times from 3 to 24 hours. To enhance interpretability, methods such as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) are applied to understand how rainfall data conditions model performance under different hydrological scenarios. With this approach, we aim to identify the optimal rainfall data setups for improved forecasting models in these basin settings.

How to cite: Merizalde, M. J., Corzo, G., Samaniego, E., Muñoz, P., and Célleri, R.: Analyzing the influence of spatial rainfall variability on reservoir outflow through interpretable data-driven modelling: an application in Tropical mountain basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-942, 2025.

EGU25-2426 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6 | Highlight

Integrating Citizen and Stakeholder: Mapping Platforms and Decision Support Systems for Climate Adaptation 

Kyungho Song and Seong-Bhin Yang

Decision Support Systems (DSS) play a critical role in climate adaptation by providing tools to guide decision-making processes. However, most existing DSS primarily focus on delivering scientific information, often reflecting a scientism-driven and enlightenment-oriented perspective that assumes knowledge dissemination alone will lead to optimal decisions. This approach must frequently pay more attention to decision-makers' diversity, contexts, and the participatory mechanisms necessary to incorporate local knowledge and values. As a result, DSS in climate adaptation often fails to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and the lived realities of citizens and stakeholders.

This study examines citizen and stakeholder knowledge integration within DSS in climate adaptation platforms through a comprehensive evaluation framework. The research begins by questioning what constitutes a “decision” in climate adaptation, who the decision-makers are, and how decisions are made. By addressing these foundational questions, the study highlights the limitations of current DSS, which are primarily information-centric, and explores their implications for participatory governance.

This research evaluates the functionality of over 50 global and domestic climate adaptation platforms based on interactivity, accessibility, contextual relevance, and capacity for fostering collaboration through systematic classification and mapping. It also emphasizes the role of participatory tools, citizen science, and co-creation practices in transforming DSS from mere data providers into platforms for collaborative decision-making.

How to cite: Song, K. and Yang, S.-B.: Integrating Citizen and Stakeholder: Mapping Platforms and Decision Support Systems for Climate Adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2426, 2025.

EGU25-2867 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6

Analysis of global bias-corrected seasonal Forecasts: Where do the strengths and challenges lie? 

Jan Niklas Weber, Christof Lorenz, Tanja Schober, Rebecca Wiegels, Christian Chwala, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann

Droughts, prolonged heatwaves, heavy rainfall and multiple large-scale floods - recent years have shown that global climate change requires more sustainable and timely water management at all levels. In particular, for the optimized use of water resources for irrigation or hydropower generation, it is essential to know their likely availability in the coming months anywhere in the world. This sub-seasonal to seasonal time range is covered by seasonal forecasting systems such as SEAS5 developed by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These systems have the potential to provide important data for improving water management practices. However, without a bias correction, the data deviate strongly from the actual data. We have shown for several regions of the world that the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method can significantly improve predictive capability. By storing fixed cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and parallelization, we were able to extend the system from the regional to the global level, i.e. to produce BCSD predictions for the entire globe and present this version at EGU24.

Our next step is to evaluate the resulting seasonal forecasts in terms of their predictive quality. This evaluation is carried out using several measures of quality, including the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) and the Brier Skill Score (BSS). To illustrate this, the strengths and weaknesses of the bias-corrected seasonal forecasts are highlighted using two regions. The focus is on the Sahel region, which has a lower forecast quality despite its high social relevance, and on the Lake Victoria catchment area, for which a high forecast quality is achieved. The aim is to achieve as precise an assessment as possible of the global forecast quality, which allows a realistic assessment of the forecasts, particularly in regions with strong fluctuations in water availability. By providing this bias-corrected forecast data in near real time together with an analysis of its quality, better estimates will be available for direct use by water managers or as input for subsequent modeling processes.

How to cite: Weber, J. N., Lorenz, C., Schober, T., Wiegels, R., Chwala, C., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Analysis of global bias-corrected seasonal Forecasts: Where do the strengths and challenges lie?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2867, 2025.

EGU25-6789 | Posters on site | HS4.6

Seasonal Streamflow and Sediment Forecast in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 

Axel Bronstert, Morteza Zargar, Till Francke, Kindie Worku, Fasikaw Timale, and Harald Kunstmann

Hydrological forecasting is an essential tool for water resource management, enabling predictions of the future state of water resources in a catchment. Since some years, the forecast horizon / lead time is increasing. The demand for reliable seasonal hydrologic forecasts is significant and various applications for water resources management are increasingly important. Integrating seasonal forecast results into decision-making processes have become vital for both short- and long-term water management across various sectors, including energy, water supply, agriculture, urban planning, infrastructure, and disaster preparedness.

This paper assesses seasonal streamflow and sediment forecasting as a critical component of effective water resource management. An effective seasonal water resources forecasting system requires an evaluation of both numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and hydrological models to accurately represent atmospheric and hydrological conditions in a specific region. This study evaluates the ECMWF-SEAS5 precipitation product in conjunction with a large-scale and process-oriented hydro-sedimentological model (WASA-SED) to produce seasonal streamflow and sediment forecasts for the Upper Blue Nile Basin, home to the largest reservoir in Africa (The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, GERD with a total capacity of 74×109 m3) in Ethiopia. Originating in the Ethiopian highlands, the Blue Nile River, the most important tributary of the Nile, contributes approximately 60% of the Nile’s total flow and is a critical water source for around 20 million people in Ethiopia and 200 million downstream residents in Sudan and Egypt.

WASA-SED was tested and calibrated with river flow data at a daily resolution for the 2001-2007 and validated for 2007-2011. Three different large-scale rainfall “products” were tested and compared ref. their representativity of observed rainfall. We show that such a rainfall evaluation is indispensable for hydrological simulation as well as for seasonal forecasting. We consider this step a “hydrological verification” of rainfall data. Calibration of WASA-SED with river discharge data resulted a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.80 and a Relative Error (RE) of 10.32%, while validation results improved to a NSE of 0.81 and a RE of 6.82%.

Seasonal streamflow and sediment flux data were than forecasted for June to December 2024, based on the seasonal meteorological forecast in the preceding month. An ensemble of 51 regional meteorological forecast members in daily resolution and 7 months lead time, each initiating on the first day of each month, was used. Daily and monthly streamflow series were simulated for each forecast member. A post-processing step with an autoregressive model was applied to adjust for forecast biases in seasonal streamflow predictions.

To evaluate the accuracy of 6 months hydrological forecasts, ensemble-averaged monthly rainfall and discharge forecasts were compared with observed average monthly rainfall and discharge values.  Results indicate that the coupled meteorological/hydrological models reasonably predict rainfall and discharge on a seasonal scale for the Blue Nile Basin.

The forecasting system is developed in close collaboration with local research partners to facilitate its implementation and sustained use beyond the project's duration.

How to cite: Bronstert, A., Zargar, M., Francke, T., Worku, K., Timale, F., and Kunstmann, H.: Seasonal Streamflow and Sediment Forecast in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6789, 2025.

EGU25-7157 | Posters on site | HS4.6

Performance comparison of knowledge-based and data-driven approaches for seasonal meteo-hydrological forecasts in the central Mediterranean 

Alfonso Senatore, Luca Furnari, Gholamreza Nikravesh, Fabio Cortale, Christof Lorenz, Amir Naghibi, Adriana Cuartas, Harald Kunstmann, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Giuseppe Mendicino

Water scarcity and drought, worsened by climate change, are growing threats to both the economy and society, particularly in hotspots like the Mediterranean Basin. Effective water resources management requires timely forecasting to implement appropriate countermeasures. Seasonal forecasts, based on knowledge-based models, are essential for managing water scarcity and drought risks. These forecasts have become more reliable with advancements in weather modeling systems. Currently, global seasonal forecasts are provided by various centers, such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). However, the success of Artificial Intelligence encourages a shift towards a data-driven approach, which moves away from traditional knowledge-based models, relying instead on machine learning to improve forecast accuracy.

This study compares two advanced seasonal forecast models, one knowledge-based and the other data-driven, for the Calabrian peninsula in southern Italy. The knowledge-based, process-based model uses the SEAS5 ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, with precipitation predictions disaggregated to a higher resolution (around 9 km) and bias-corrected according to the ERA5-Land product for improved accuracy. The data-driven approach predicts future precipitation using time series from 134 local rain gauges, employing methods like Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector machines (SVM), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNN). The models’ performance is evaluated for the 2021-2023 period using indices such as bias, RMSE, and Pearson correlation coefficient across different spatial areas. Furthermore, the output of both approaches is used for further hydrological modeling.

The results show a high level of consistency between the two techniques and their respective reference datasets, emphasizing the significant potential of combining both approaches. This integration allows for the utilization of their individual strengths, such as probabilistic forecasting and physical consistency with other variables in knowledge-based methods, as well as flexibility and computational efficiency in data-driven models.

Acknowledgments: This study was funded by The Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.5, call for the creation and strengthening of ‘Innovation Ecosystems’, building ‘Territorial R&D Leaders’, Project Tech4You - Technologies for climate change adaptation and quality of life improvement, n. ECS0000009; The Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4 ‘Education and Research’ - Component C2, Investment 1.1, Research Project of National Interest (PRIN 2022 PNRR) ­- INnovative FOrecast-informed REServoir operations for sustainable use of water resources and climate change adaptation (INFORES, CUP H53D23001430006), Italian Ministry of University and Research; The Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3, project WaterWISE - Water Management Strategies and Climate Change Adaptation in Southern Italy, n. PE00000005, CUP D43C22003030002.

How to cite: Senatore, A., Furnari, L., Nikravesh, G., Cortale, F., Lorenz, C., Naghibi, A., Cuartas, A., Kunstmann, H., Bertacchi Uvo, C., and Mendicino, G.: Performance comparison of knowledge-based and data-driven approaches for seasonal meteo-hydrological forecasts in the central Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7157, 2025.

In regions such as South Korea, where rainfall is irregular over time, it is important to operate dams and reservoirs to regulate the supply and demand of water, ensure proper irrigation water discharge to downstream agricultural areas, and prevent flood damage. However, during periods of heavy rainfall, it becomes difficult to operate and manage reservoirs normally, and time-series AI models can be used to produce reservoir storage rate forecasts to help smoothly operate reservoirs and manage water balance. In this study, multivariate time series forecasting was performed for the top 46 reservoirs with effective storage in Korea, using historical storage, precipitation, Julian day, and estimated inflow and outflow calculated using an expert knowledge-based rainfall-runoff model as input variables to predict storage from 1 day up to 20 days-ahead, and quantitative evaluation of reservoir storage rate predictions was performed using MAE (mean absolute error), MBE (mean bias error), RMSE (root mean square error), and CC (correlation coefficient) metrics. Predicting reservoir storage rate by considering only seasonal and meteorological effects reduces accuracy during the rainy season. However, when the estimated inflow and outflow of reservoirs, derived using an expert knowledge-based rainfall-runoff model, were additionally incorporated as inputs into the time series model, the average MAE of the 46 reservoir storage forecasts improved from 0.088%p to 0.240%p, particularly enhancing the low forecast performance in the rainy season. Furthermore, an ensemble of time series models with recurrent neural network structure, which has strengths in short-term forecasting and transformer structure, which has strengths in medium-term forecasting produced better reservoir storage rate predictions than the single model in both short-term and medium-term. The MAE and RMSE averages of the ensemble model's 1-day-ahead reservoir storage rate predictions for 46 reservoirs were 1.384% and 2.496% respectively, an improvement of 0.573% and 0.644% over the single model, and the statistical superiority of the ensemble model increased as the number of days in the future was predicted. The importance of the input variables of the ensemble model was evaluated, and the historical reservoir storage rate was the most important with 67.24%, followed by the estimated inflow and estimated outflow with 12.36% and 8.73%, and the sum of the importance of the two variables calculated through rainfall-runoff modeling was 21.09%. By using variables that reflect the management practices of the reservoir, the model provided information that the model could not learn from the reservoir storage rate, meteorological data, and seasonal data alone. This study enables stable reservoir operation throughout the year, even in areas with irregular rainfall, and is expected to improve agricultural stability in downstream irrigated areas and prevent rainfall flooding.

This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant RS-2022-00155763).

How to cite: Park, J. and Lee, Y.: An ensemble of AI time-series models for reservoir storage rate in South Korea: Accuracy improvement using expert knowledge-based rainfall-runoff modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7992, 2025.

EGU25-8919 | Posters on site | HS4.6

Experiences from seven living labs in the use of local knowledge and local data for tailored climate services 

Lluís Pesquer, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Katherine Egan, Alexandros Ziogas, Paolo Mazzoli, Daniele Castellana, Amanda Batlle, Ester Prat, and Stefano Bagli

Climate services (CS) play a relevant role in providing tools for establishing societies resilient to global change considering its complex variability at multiple temporal and spatial scales. The involvement of end users in the processes of co-creation, co-development, and co-evaluation of CS, combined with the integration of local data (LD) and knowledge (LK) in forecast modelling and enables the development of user-tailored CS, improving the local impact of climate predictions.

The present work explains the lessons learnt, in terms of CS usability, in the co-creation process developed in seven living labs (LL) within the I-CISK project (https://icisk.eu/). Six LL are located in Europe (Andalucía-Spain, Alazani-Georgia, Budapest-Hungary, Rijnland-The Netherlands, Emilia Romagna-Italy, Crete-Greece) and one in Africa (Lesotho). All of them are identified as climate change hotspots focusing on different climate vulnerabilities affecting different sectors: drought, urban heat waves, water scarcity, landslide susceptibility. 

To respond to the different needs and challenges of the 7 LL, we implemented tailored methods for the CS, using LK and LD. These methods include downscaling for seasonal hydrological forecasting, downscaling for meteorological seasonal forecasts and climate projections, seasonal landslide susceptibility forecasts, drought vulnerability assessment and urban heat distribution. In those implementations, LD has a crucial role in all downscaling methods. LK is essential to advisor the selection of explanatory variables into the models, to define alert thresholds in risk events, in the design of adaptation strategies and in supporting vulnerability assessments. On top of these tailored methods, we developed the front-end interfaces of the CS, incorporating user feedback through constant interaction with stakeholders.

From the usability perspective, the main lessons learnt from the experience of the 7 LL in the co-creation of these CS are:

  • Most tailored CS aim to produce outputs with higher spatial resolution than those available from existing global, regional, or national services.
  • Downscaling techniques are widely applied as tailored methods across many LL, with local data playing a crucial role in these efforts.
  • Local data falls short of meeting FAIR data principles.
  • Despite the extensive information collected during co-creation processes, only a few LL fully benefit from local knowledge contributions. This knowledge is primarily used to enhance the understanding of climate information, but not to build comprehensive climate knowledge.
  • In some LL, using the local language is a requirement for a complete understanding of the climate information, while in others, the scientific/technical terminology poses a barrier.
  • Interpretation of the provided climate information (particularly, the uncertainty) is key for developing actions for water resources planning, climate adaptation and vulnerability reduction in different sectors at different LL.
  • Sector-tailored information and/or sector-specific indicators are repeatedly demanded in some LL.

How to cite: Pesquer, L., Pechlivanidis, I., Egan, K., Ziogas, A., Mazzoli, P., Castellana, D., Batlle, A., Prat, E., and Bagli, S.: Experiences from seven living labs in the use of local knowledge and local data for tailored climate services, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8919, 2025.

EGU25-9347 | Orals | HS4.6

A multi-reservoir machine learning model for forecasting reservoir storage at monthly and seasonal timescales 

Helen Baron, Rishma Chengot, Nathan Rickards, and Virginie Keller

Reservoirs are a vital aspect of water resource management in many regions worldwide, used to meet domestic and irrigation demand, for hydropower, flood control, and maintaining river flow for ecological and navigational purposes.  It is important to have a reliable forecast for reservoir status to ensure efficient operation of individual reservoirs and the wider water resource system, particularly during unusually wet or dry periods. This forecasting will become increasingly important under a changing climate and growing demand for water and hydropower. In this work, we focus on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts, providing vital information for water users and enabling them to make informed decisions on management strategies with seasonal lead-times.

There has been research on forecasting reservoir status (i.e. reservoirs storage, inflow, outflow, level, or storage anomaly) at different lead-times with machine learning (ML) methods, with most studies producing reservoir-specific models. In this work, we produce an Extra Trees (ET) regressor model for multiple reservoirs over Europe, trained on historical monthly storage, rainfall and temperature, along with static catchment characteristics from the relevant CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) datasets. This model is used to forecast storage at one- and three- month lead times for reservoirs in the region, including reservoirs unseen by the model in the training period. A multi-reservoir model makes use of all the available data, allowing forecasts for reservoirs with limited historical data, and improves prediction performance under extremes compared to a single-reservoir model.

The model has already shown promising results for predicting reservoir storages using observed climatic inputs, and this work will investigate the model skill in forecast mode, using ensemble climate hindcasts, for reservoirs across Europe. It is anticipated that this model will provide a computationally- efficient forecasting tool with relatively low input data requirements that can be used to forecast reservoir storage in the modelled area, with potential to expand to a global extent.

How to cite: Baron, H., Chengot, R., Rickards, N., and Keller, V.: A multi-reservoir machine learning model for forecasting reservoir storage at monthly and seasonal timescales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9347, 2025.

Lake Urmia, one of the largest saltwater lakes in the world, has experienced a significant decrease in water levels in recent decades. Climate change has been identified as one of the main factors contributing to this reduction. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns are among the effects of climate change that have led to a decrease in water resources. In this study, five General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used, including GFDL, MRI, MPI, BCC, and CMCC, to examine precipitation projections in the eastern basin of Lake Urmia under climate scenarios. The precipitation output of the mentioned models has been statistically downscaled using CMHyd software. The selection of GCM models was based on access to their data and their ability to simulate the stations observed precipitation. In the downscaling process, data from three synoptic stations have been used. The observational base period of 1985-2014 and future periods are considered 2026-2050 as near future, 2051-2075 as medium future and 2076-2099 as far future. Also, the future precipitation was predicted under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate and pessimistic, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The precipitation was studied annually and the changes of precipitation in each of the next three periods compared to the base period of observations and then their significance was examined at a confidence level of 5%. In the optimistic scenario, most models for the periods 2026-2050 and 2051-2075, except for the Tabriz station, indicate a decrease in annual precipitation, and in the period 2076-2099, all stations experience an increase in precipitation which is not significant. In the pessimistic scenario, the BCC, GFDL and CMCC models reveal a decrease in annual precipitation, which in the BCC model is significant for the period 2076-2099. In the middle scenario, except for the GFDL and MRI models which present an increase in precipitation, other models exhibit a decrease in precipitation for all three periods and across all stations. Based on the expected decrease in precipitation in the coming years, and to prevent further drying of Lake Urmia, a national water management program to counteract climate change should be developed.

Keywords: Urmia Lake, Climate change, Precipitation, CMIP6, CMHyd.

How to cite: Pourasghar, F. and Eslahi, M.: Precipitation Projection in Lake Urmia Basin in East Azerbaijan, Iran Using Downscaling of Selected CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9450, 2025.

EGU25-13167 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6

Summer drought predictability in the Euro-Mediterranean region in seasonal forecasts 

Giada Cerato, Katinka Bellomo, and Jost von Hardenberg

In the Euro-Mediterranean region, summer droughts present significant challenges for various socio-economic sectors, raising the need for reliable seasonal drought forecasts to support proactive water resource management. This study evaluates the skill of the latest seasonal forecast systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service in predicting summer droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to characterize drought events. Using a systematic multi-metric evaluation framework that includes both deterministic and probabilistic scores, we benchmark individual systems and their multi-model ensemble (MME) to identify patterns of predictive skill across regions and lead times. The findings reveal that when SPEI forecasts are initiated at the onset of the summer season, all models exhibit on average positive correlations with observed dry conditions, reflecting also good quality in terms of accuracy, reliability, and discrimination skills, though with local variability. The added value of dynamical models compared to climatology-based heuristic prediction methods declines significantly for forecasts initialized one month earlier. At all lead times performance is better for all models in Southern Mediterranean areas, indicating higher predictability of SPEI in that region compared to Northern Europe. By highlighting the grid points where SPEI seasonal forecasts hold significant predictive value, this study provides actionable insights for leveraging these products in decision-making processes. When a non-locally tailored analysis is needed, the MME offers the most robust drought forecasting solution, always demonstrating more widespread significant skill with respect to single models up to a 1-month lead time, covering much of the Mediterranean region. Beyond this horizon, significant skill becomes limited, resulting in forecasts that are neutral compared to the heuristic approaches. Notably, individual models demonstrate localized lead time-dependent strengths that may make them preferable to the MME in specific cases where tailored predictions are required.

How to cite: Cerato, G., Bellomo, K., and von Hardenberg, J.: Summer drought predictability in the Euro-Mediterranean region in seasonal forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13167, 2025.

EGU25-13357 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.6

Streamlining Operational Hydrological Forecasting with pyFlow 

Husain Najafi, Pallav Kumar Shrestha, Matthias Kelbling, Stephan Thober, and Luis Samaniego

Operational hydrological forecasting involves retrieving, accessing, and processing large volumes of data, alongside managing complex workflows with numerous task dependencies. These challenges are amplified in applications such as flood forecasting, where timely and accurate forecasts are critical for disaster preparedness. Without an efficient workflow manager, significant time is spent diagnosing errors and identifying broken links in the forecasting chain. This inefficiency is particularly problematic in flood forecasting, which demands continuous monitoring and frequent forecast updates—sometimes on an hourly basis—to enable prompt decision-making.

Building on insights from projects such as ULYSSES, we have developed operational hydrological forecasting workflows using pyFlow, a high-level language designed for creating object-oriented suites with ecFlow - the workflow management tool developed by ECMWF. The pyFlow allows users to design, maintain, and execute workflows as software, enhancing efficiency and usability.

In this study, we present the application of pyFlow to develop hydrological forecasting chains that generate ensemble hydrological forecasts on a subseasonal timescale. A key example is the HS2S system, operational since 2021, which provides soil moisture forecasts for Germany using ECMWF ensemble extended forecasts and the mesoscale hydrlogic model (mHM). We detail the transition of workflows from traditional cronjobs to pyFlow on the cluster, showcasing the advantages of this approach.

ecFlow offers a powerful combination of features, including a user-friendly graphical interface, the flexibility to run locally, and open-access customization options. These attributes make PyFlow a versatile tool for both research and operational hydrological forecasting applications. By streamlining workflow management, pyFlow enhances user experiences and supports more effective forecasting and decision-making.

How to cite: Najafi, H., Shrestha, P. K., Kelbling, M., Thober, S., and Samaniego, L.: Streamlining Operational Hydrological Forecasting with pyFlow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13357, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13357, 2025.

EGU25-13941 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6

Behavioural insights on climate information uptake in Tanzania, Burkina Faso and Malawi 

Denyse S. Dookie, Djibril Barry, Lucien Damiba, Vitus Tondelo Gungulundi, Christossy Lalika, Hans Komakech, Maurice Monjerezi, and Katharine Vincent

The use of weather and climate information, or data and insights relating to both short- and long-term weather patterns in a specific region, has been encouraged to better understand, address, and mitigate the impacts and challenges presented by climate change. However, despite ongoing efforts to improve the development and availability of climate information, it is not well understood whether this information is made obvious to relevant users, and the extent to which climate information is utilised for improved decision-making. Further, addressing the knowledge gap of why the uptake and use of climate information is low or not done despite being made available to users would be a valuable new contribution and a space for behavioural science, as it would question the notion that the provision of knowledge automatically leads to action. 

This research shares insights from the Behavioural Adaptation for Water Security and Inclusion (BASIN) project, which is funded by UK aid from the UK government and by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada, as part of the Climate Adaptation and Resilience (CLARE) research programme. This project underscores how more inclusive water security and equitable adaptation can be supported, and one of its core research questions focuses on examining community perceptions of climate information, whether and how actions are taken as a response of available information, and reasons why climate information was not used. This presentation summarises these findings based on responses to a series of focus group discussions and key informant interviews undertaken in Tanzania, Burkina Faso and Malawi. For instance, it underscores barrier and enabling factors affecting climate information use and highlights how climate information could be better packaged for increased use in crop planning and enhanced agricultural production as well as flood and drought management. Such insights thus offer a context for the need for behavioural interventions that could be helpful to assist improved decision-making and community practices on water security and climate adaptation.

How to cite: Dookie, D. S., Barry, D., Damiba, L., Gungulundi, V. T., Lalika, C., Komakech, H., Monjerezi, M., and Vincent, K.: Behavioural insights on climate information uptake in Tanzania, Burkina Faso and Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13941, 2025.

EGU25-14358 | Posters on site | HS4.6

Forecast Informed Operational Riverine Modeling: A Case Study on the Lower Mississippi River 

Julia Zimmerman, Braxton Chewning, Allen Hammack, Tate McAlpin, and Keaton Jones

In recent years, the Mississippi River has experienced extreme record low water events and flooding. These disruptions have caused significant societal and economic impacts on regional and national scales. Record-setting low water events were recorded in both 2022 and 2023 resulting in unpredicated shipping interruptions throughout the river and saltwater intrusion in southern Louisiana which is dependent on the Mississippi River as a source of drinking water. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recognized these record-low water conditions as a climate-related disaster.  Volatile conditions on the Mississippi including high impact, high uncertainty low water events are likely to continue to increase with a changing climate. Navigable waterways within the United States are managed and maintained by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). Currently, there is no existing methodology to integrate publically available forecasted riverine conditions with high-fidelity numerical modeling to predict and mitigate economic impacts caused by low water conditions. This information is of direct interest and potential use to stakeholders including the operational departments of individual USACE districts. To fill this gap within the Lower Mississippi river system, a two-dimensional, depth-averaged Adaptive Hydraulics Model of the Lower Mississippi, from Cairo, Illinois to the Gulf of Mexico, was developed. Additionally, a codebase was created to dynamically retrieve 14-day forecasts from NOAA's Office of Water Prediction (OWP) and generate corresponding boundary conditions. This model was validated to the 2023 water year, intermediate forecast points, and observed data during the performance period. The model outputs daily forecasted water levels and depths as spatially referenced rasters and is automated for all steps including boundary condition updates, model runs, and data post-processing. Future work will include the development of dynamically updated bathymetric conditions to reflect shoaling concerns and integration of modeling results into existing USACE GIS based web portal as a decision support tool for stakeholders.

How to cite: Zimmerman, J., Chewning, B., Hammack, A., McAlpin, T., and Jones, K.: Forecast Informed Operational Riverine Modeling: A Case Study on the Lower Mississippi River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14358, 2025.

EGU25-14598 | Orals | HS4.6

Co-developing CONUS-wide current and future hydroclimate projections to support US agency water security initiatives 

Andy Wood, Guoqiang Tang, Mozhgan Farahani, Naoki Mizukami, Chanel Mueller, Chris Frans, Marketa McGuire, and Brantley Thames

The US Secure Water Act of 2010 requires several US agencies to report to Congress every five years on future water-related mission vulnerabilities. Over the last 15 years, 21st century climate projection datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) have been downscaled and used to drive hydrologic and streamflow scenarios across the Contiguous United States (CONUS).  The resulting datasets form input for federal and state agency planning, guidance and policy, for water resources applications from watershed to regional scales, and for the climate-water research community. The advent of CMIP6 has triggered the co-development of new, updated hydrologic modeling for future hydroclimate impact projections, which is proceeding via a multi-agency effort that integrates researchers with stakeholders from US federal water, climate and energy agencies. The effort has lately spurred interest in a related trans-boundary joint hydroclimate science effort between the US and Canada. This effort uses the process-oriented SUMMA land/hydrology model and mizuRoute channel routing model, which have been configured for CONUS and adjoining watersheds at a USGS HUC12 (and MERIT-Hydro) watershed resolution, a contrast to earlier grid-based modeling approaches. Several hundred CMIP6 future climate scenarios are being downscaled to drive future hydrologic assessments that are tailored to water agency planning needs.

This work necessitated the creation of new strategies to upgrade existing capabilities in continental-scale process-based hydrological modelling and projections, which have been undermined by poor calibration in prior iterations. Notable innovations included a powerful new large-sample parameter estimation approach based on machine-learning (ML) emulators; creating extended (CAMELS-like) large-sample catchment datasets for model calibration and validation (using both natural and reconstructed historical streamflow observations); creating a new CONUS-wide multi-decadal high-resolution surface meteorological (forcing) dataset, derived using ML methods; and the use of water management guided performance metrics to inform model training and evaluation. This presentation summarizes the new CMIP6 hydroclimate dataset initiative, and highlights the critical role of integrated researcher-stakeholder engagement in achieving fit-for-purpose and actionable large-domain hydrology outcomes.  

How to cite: Wood, A., Tang, G., Farahani, M., Mizukami, N., Mueller, C., Frans, C., McGuire, M., and Thames, B.: Co-developing CONUS-wide current and future hydroclimate projections to support US agency water security initiatives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14598, 2025.

EGU25-17686 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6

Enhancing the usefulness and usability of Drought Early Action Protocols through co-creation  

Balbina Nyamakura, Micha Werner, Ilyas Masih, Daniele Castellana, and Marc van den Homberg

The lack of saliency, credibility, and legitimacy of information in climate services constrains their use in decision-making. Co-creation processes involve end users, purveyors, and providers in an iterative approach to develop tailored climate services that are useful and usable. Such approaches facilitate contextual understanding, integrate different knowledges, and are key in bridging the gap between innovation and use.

Co-creation approaches have been applied in climate service development over the past years. However, there has been little exploration on whether and how the process can be organised to ensure that the co-created climate services are sustainably used. Unpacking this relationship between co-creation and use enables an understanding of the factors to consider, and pathways to follow when co-creating climate services to effectively upscale innovation and sustainable use in decision-making.

This research aims to identify the pathways through which co-creation processes contribute towards the use of climate services in decision-making. We follow and critically evaluate an ongoing co-creation process for the development of a Drought Early Action Protocol (and the revisions thereof) in Lesotho. We apply the Contribution Analysis method to evaluate the process with key stakeholders from the Lesotho Meteorological Services, the Disaster Management Agency, and the Lesotho Red Cross Society. Preliminary findings suggest that a combination of i) embedding the climate service in an already existing decision-making framework, ii) actively building the capacity of institutional staff to use the climate service, and iii) providing avenues for maintenance after the co-creation process, is a likely pathway a co-creation process may take towards ensuring use of the climate service. This work is beneficial to practitioners and researchers as it provides an empirically grounded explanatory account of the relationship between co-creation and the use of climate services.

How to cite: Nyamakura, B., Werner, M., Masih, I., Castellana, D., and van den Homberg, M.: Enhancing the usefulness and usability of Drought Early Action Protocols through co-creation , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17686, 2025.

EGU25-18212 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.6

Assessing the skill of Copernicus seasonal forecast systems in predicting temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Alpine region   

Esmaeil Pourjavad Shadbad, Matteo Lorenzo, Francesco Avanzi, Andrea Libertino, Jost von Hardenberg, and Silvia Terzago

The Alpine region is warming faster than the global average, with intensifying heatwaves and declining summer rainfall contributing to increased water shortages and more frequent droughts. Accurate forecasts of meteorological and hydrological variables on a seasonal scale would provide early warnings of extreme seasonal conditions and aid in the management of water resources. The PRIN-2022 SPHERE project1 is developing a forecasting chain based on Copernicus seasonal forecast systems for meteorological inputs and integrates snow-hydrological models to predict seasonal snowpack evolution, river discharge and water availability in the Po River basin (Italy). In this context, it is crucial to assess the skill of Copernicus seasonal forecast systems in predicting meteorological inputs and to evaluate how this skill propagates through the forecasting chain.

This study evaluates the performance of three state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems available in the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) archive: ECMWF System 5, Météo-France System 6, and CMCC SPS3. These models provide retrospective seasonal forecasts of near-surface air temperature and precipitation at a spatial resolution of 1° x 1° and a monthly temporal resolution, for the common period 1993–2014. The analysis focuses on seasonal average anomalies and applies a range of deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, including the anomaly correlation coefficient, Brier score, area under the ROC curve, and continuous ranked probability score.

The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the forecast systems' skill in predicting temperature and precipitation anomalies, with a particular focus on the winter and summer seasons-critical periods for applications in energy, water management, agriculture, and the Alpine ski industry. The forecast systems are compared to a baseline forecasting method based on the ERA5 climatology to quantify their relative skills. Preliminary findings reveal strengths and weaknesses across models, with significant variation in performance metrics depending on the season and parameter.

Future steps include extending the analysis to encompass (i) additional meteorological forcings, such as wind and relative humidity, and (ii) output of the forecast chain, including snow water equivalent, snow depth, and river discharge. This will enable the investigation of forecast skill at different steps of the modelling chain and quantify its overall added value compared to a baseline forecasting method based on the climatology. This research aims to advance and optimize the utility of seasonal forecasts in addressing critical climate-related challenges in the Alpine region.

1Progetto di Ricerca di rilevante Interesse Nazionale (PRIN-2022): Seasonal Prediction of wateravailability: enHancing watER sEcurity from high mountains to plains (SPHERE)

How to cite: Pourjavad Shadbad, E., Lorenzo, M., Avanzi, F., Libertino, A., von Hardenberg, J., and Terzago, S.: Assessing the skill of Copernicus seasonal forecast systems in predicting temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Alpine region  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18212, 2025.

EGU25-18641 | Orals | HS4.6

Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections across diverse hydroclimates: characterization and take-home messages for stakeholders 

Benoit Hingray, Guillaume Evin, Eric Sauquet, Alix Reverdy, and Agnès Ducharne and the Explore2-HyMet

Robust adaptation to hydrological climate change requires an assessment of possible climate and hydrological futures at different scales. Explore2 is a recent multimodel ensemble of hydrological projections developed to accompany local adaptation plans for metropolitan France and Corsica, a 550,000 km2 wide territory with a large diversity of climate and hydrological regimes (Sauquet et al. 2024). The Explore2 ensemble provides transient projections of daily river flow for more than 4’000 locations on French rivers. Projections have been obtained for three RCP emission scenarios with 4 to 9 hydrological models (HMs) driven by 36 bias adjusted regional climate projections (36 EUROCORDEX projections obtained for a number of different GCM/RCM combinations, Marson et al. 2024).

Explore2 projections, making no exception, come with sometimes large uncertainty (Evin et al., 2024). This uncertainty has been characterized and analyzed with Qualypso (Evin et al. 2021) for different climate and hydrological metrics. Qualypso is an advanced ANOVA approach, based on the quasi-ergodic assumption for transient climate projections (Hingray et Said, 2014) and applicable for unbalanced datasets. It allows to disentangle and prioritize the different components of uncertainty, namely emission scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty (GCM uncertainty, RCM uncertainty, HM uncertainty) and uncertainty due to climate internal variability.

In this work, we examine the following questions:

  • What are the projected changes for different climate and hydrological metrics for metropolitan France and Corsica (e.g. precipitation, annual discharge, high and low flows) and how strong do the modelling chains agree on projections?
  • How do scenario uncertainty and the different components of model uncertainty contribute to the total uncertainty in projections and what additional variability is introduced by internal variability of climate?
  • What are the main effects of each model compared to the others and are there highly contrasting chains?
  • How do the results depend on location and/or hydroclimatic context?
  • What messages can be conveyed to stakeholders about the future of climate and hydrology in France?

References:

Evin et al. 2021. Earth System Dynamics. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1543/2021/

Evin et al. 2024. Recherche Data Gouv. https://hal.science/hal-04609542 

Hingray and Saïd. 2014. J.Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00629.1

Marson et al. 2024. Recherche Data Gouv. https://hal.science/hal-04443633v1

Sauquet et al. 2024. Recherche Data Gouv. https://doi.org/10.57745/J3XIPW

How to cite: Hingray, B., Evin, G., Sauquet, E., Reverdy, A., and Ducharne, A. and the Explore2-HyMet: Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections across diverse hydroclimates: characterization and take-home messages for stakeholders, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18641, 2025.

EGU25-18742 | Posters on site | HS4.6

Co-creating multi-scalar climate services tailored to the needs of multiple sectors in Crete, Greece 

Alexandros Ziogas, Ilyas Masih, Apostolos Tzimas, Evangelos Romas, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Rebecca Emerton, and Micha Werner

Climate and water related disasters impact multiple sectors across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. There is a need to develop Climate Services (CS) that can meet the short and long-term needs of multiple sectors to build resilience against hydro-climatic disaster risks from droughts and water scarcity, floods, landslides, heatwaves, and windstorms. These risks are projected to increase in the future due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

This work presents a case study of co-creation of multi-scalar CS for the Island of Crete, Greece. A co-creation process was designed and executed under I-CISK, an EU funded project (work in progress), to generate climate services that support a multi-sectoral approach towards the tourism sector, by addressing the needs of multiple users and sectors (tourism; water allocation and reservoir management; transportation infrastructure) at the scales which serve both operational (seasonal forecasting) as well as long-term planning needs (decadal projections). Essential to the co-creation process was the bringing together of key players in the CS value chain (providers, purveyors and end users), and the active contribution of a Multi-Actor Platform (MAP), which was composed of members representing policy makers; business and industry; academia and research; and civil society organisations from the sectors addressed.

The co-creation experience revealed a varying nature of needs, perceptions and knowledges attributed to target end-users involved. A combination of joint meetings of the MAP members as well as individual meetings with single sector users was essential in understanding these differences alongside of reducing knowledge and capacity gap among key stakeholders. The role of purveyor (case study leader in this case) was found to be pivotal in holding meaningful exchanges between CS providers and end-users and successfully executing the steps of the co-creation process, such as outlining CS needs/desires and co-designing of the CS. The resulting multi-scalar CS seamlessly integrate global data (e.g., from ECMWF and EU’s Copernicus programme) and local knowledge (e.g., end-user decision-process approach, climate thresholds which trigger responses and historical data) to design CS that combine variables and indicators to cater for the needs of multiple sectors and users across the spatial and temporal scales relevant to them. Moreover, we showcase the salient features of the three co-created CS. Multi-sectoral approach both addresses the complexity of climate change impact on an economic sector as well as increases awareness over the aspects of interrelated impacts and the need of holistic approach towards adaptation planning, among key stakeholders from multiple sectors. The co-created CS demonstrate potential for further development and uptake underpinned by stakeholder’s feedback from application experience in Crete. The findings and experience presented in this work can be instructive for developing multi-scalar climate services in Greece and other countries.

How to cite: Ziogas, A., Masih, I., Tzimas, A., Romas, E., Pechlivanidis, I., Emerton, R., and Werner, M.: Co-creating multi-scalar climate services tailored to the needs of multiple sectors in Crete, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18742, 2025.

EGU25-19791 | ECS | Orals | HS4.6

Local knowledge integration to develop user tailored hydroclimatic service 

Nikoletta Ropero, Lucia De Stefano, and Nuria Heránde-Mora

The increasing intensity and duration of droughts threatens water availability with greater frequency (Ipcc 2022), requiring the adoption of measures in response to these extreme weather events (Berrang-Ford et al. 2021). The lack of hydroclimatic information adapted to users’ needs constrains the adaptive capacity of decision-makers (Lee et al., 2022). To bridge this gap, it is necessary to combine available scientific-technical information with local knowledge through co-production processes that adapt the information to the local context and to the user’s needs (Norström et al. 2020).

In the I-CISK project (https://icisk.eu/), we developed a pre-operational user-centered climate service with hydrogeological information in the Andalucia-Los Pedroches Living Lab, located in northern Cordoba, Spain. The aim of this work is to develop a hydrogeological model of Los Pedroches hard rock aquifer system and its relationship with evolving climate. The availability of hydrological and hydrogeological data in the region is limited, both in terms of the number of measuring points and of the length of available data time-series. The model has been built by integrating scientific and local information using MODFLOW-NWT (USGS, 2022). In this work, local knowledge is understood as personal experience and local ecological knowledge regarding hydrological and hydrogeological information (van den Homberg et al., 2023). First, we conducted an exhaustive review of the information available in the literature, official databases and previous technical studies. Second, we designed a survey to collect local knowledge regarding groundwater functioning and characteristics through semi-structured interviews with users, focus groups and workshops. Third, to complement the limited availability of groundwater level data, we conducted four field campaigns to build a water table database for model validation.

Technical and scientific research enabled the generation of a structured set of data and the identification of knowledge gaps. These gaps were filled based on local knowledge gathered and verified with available hydrogeological information to define the model's physical environment. Local knowledge enabled the adjustment of model boundary conditions, the estimation of the thickness of the aquifer layer, the aquifer-river network connections, and the influence of dikes and fractures on subsurface flow. As in other contexts (Guodaarmarti et al., 2021; Habté et al., 2021), local knowledge integration is key to improving the design of climate change adaptation measures. The integration of these different sources of data and qualitative information into a climate service is expected to provide a more comprehensive characterization of the aquifer and its functioning to improve decision-making processes regarding water resources use.

How to cite: Ropero, N., De Stefano, L., and Heránde-Mora, N.: Local knowledge integration to develop user tailored hydroclimatic service, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19791, 2025.

EGU25-20126 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.6

Co-developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting service and lessons learned: eliciting ideal functionalities in the face of real-world implementation limitations 

Fabian Kneier, Tinh Vu, Neda Abbasi, Tina Trautmann, Jan Weber, Stephan Dietrich, Stefan Siebert, and Petra Döll

Drought and flood monitoring and forecasting services enable the integration of climate information in decision-making processes, thus supporting successful adaptation, from disaster risk reduction to long-term policy and planning worldwide. While state-of-the-art model-based early warning systems that simulate future floods and droughts at various temporal and spatial scales have been developed in the academic fields, it has proven a challenge to translate the existing knowledge into an operational system. Inherent challenges include a) setting up the appropriate technical requirements, operational workflows, and new IT infrastructure, while b) conducting a user-centric co-development that yields c) scientifically sound products with regard to the model information basis, with d) a continuous financing of operations and scientific updates. However, while transdisciplinary co-development with end users supports utilization, the final provided service will be a balance with respect to the technical and scientific limitations. In particular, technical limitations in the context of a project may lead to less-than-optimal implementation of stakeholder needs, even if those had been scientifically feasible, and therefore may lead to losing actually-elicited, potentially valuable stakeholder knowledge after the process finishes.

This study describes and evaluates the steps and methods undertaken to participatorily co-develop an operational, multi-sectoral global drought hazard forecasting system (in the frame of the OUTLAST project) through a transdisciplinary process of three workshops with participating end users and experts from two focus regions, Lake Victoria Basin, Africa, and Central Asia, respectively. This comprised the co-production of (i) the user-relevant sectoral drought hazard indicators, (ii) the optimal representation with uncertainty information in spatial and temporal visualizations, and (iii) interface functionalities to optimize user utilization of the hazard information. We discuss lessons learned with a particular focus on identified challenges and compromises regarding balancing of the above limitations during the co-development.

The resulting global OUTLAST near real-time monitoring and seasonal forecasts will be operationally provided and freely accessible via the Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) portal hosted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Regarding indicators, we found that the extent of co-design was necessarily limited with a dominating research-lead because of the complexity found in droughts, unlike e.g. in floods. Regarding interface functionalities and user utilization, the technical implementation was limited by sub-optimal funding and a requirement to provide hydrological information homogeneously across all HydroSOS services, and a clear division between an ideal and technically limited version by the IT hosting requirements could be identified. This allowed subsequent planning to provide access to additional features on a potential secondary subportal. We therefore emphasize the importance of 1) eliciting the information on ideal implementation even in the face of current project-bound limitations (i.e., technical or shifting commitment); so that, while 2) promoting wide utilization, the limited functionality can be implemented where public dissemination is most prominent (at WMO level), it is equally important to also 3) plan for alternative approaches to provide more of the ideal features, and to 4) perpetuate the knowledge drawn from the participatory process to ensure the possibility for future implementations beyond the present limitations.

How to cite: Kneier, F., Vu, T., Abbasi, N., Trautmann, T., Weber, J., Dietrich, S., Siebert, S., and Döll, P.: Co-developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting service and lessons learned: eliciting ideal functionalities in the face of real-world implementation limitations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20126, 2025.

EGU25-837 | ECS | Orals | HS4.7

Performance Evaluation of a Real-time Regional Ensemble Flow Forecasting System in Catalonia: Accuracy, Robustness, and Timeliness 

Xinyu li, Marc Berenguer, Carles Corral, Shinju Park, and Daniel Sempere-Torres

Real-time ensemble flow forecasting systems are increasingly employed to manage hydrological risks associated with extreme weather events and a changing climate. The effectiveness of flow forecasting systems hinges on their ability to deliver accurate, robust, and timely predictions, despite inherent uncertainties in their components. The assessment of the system’s performance after a long-term application is essential to establish its value as a reliable reference tool for stakeholders in hydrological management and decision-making.

This study presents an approach to evaluate the performance of a regional ensemble flow forecasting system operational in real time since June 2020 over the region of Catalonia (NE Spain). The system generates flow forecasts for all gauging stations managed by the Catalan Water Agency using a modified version of the HBV rainfall-runoff model, with rainfall inputs combining QPE (blending radar and rain gauge observations) with the 52-member ensemble precipitation forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The analysis spans a four-year period and focuses on significant rainfall events, enabling a comprehensive analysis of the system’s accuracy, robustness, and timeliness as a function of lead time. Both deterministic metrics and probabilistic scores are applied to evaluate the quality of the flow forecasts. The evaluation focuses on assessing the impact of different sources of uncertainty using different discharge references: (1) observed flow; (2) flow simulated with the full series of rainfall observations; (3) flow simulated with no-rainfall forecasts. Additionally, key sources of uncertainty, such as rainfall variability, catchment response and forecast initialization errors, are identified to inform targeted system enhancements and improve forecast reliability.

How to cite: li, X., Berenguer, M., Corral, C., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Performance Evaluation of a Real-time Regional Ensemble Flow Forecasting System in Catalonia: Accuracy, Robustness, and Timeliness, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-837, 2025.

EGU25-1102 | ECS | Orals | HS4.7

Advancing Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationarity: Implications for Flood Forecasting Systems 

Ankush Ankush, Narendra Kumar Goel, and Rajendran Vinnarasi

Flood frequency analysis is crucial for understanding and mitigating the risks of extreme flood events. However, traditional methods often assume stationarity and fail to account for the complex physical phenomena driving changes in flood behaviour. This study addresses the challenge of nonstationary multivariate flood frequency analysis by incorporating multiple covariates that represent key physical processes influencing flood variables, such as peak discharge, volume, and duration. By leveraging advanced statistical methods, including copula-based modelling and covariate selection techniques, we provide a robust framework for analysing the dependencies and dynamics of flood variables under changing climatic and hydrological conditions. Applied to the Barakar River Basin, our framework identifies significant nonstationary trends influenced by covariates such as precipitation intensity, land-use changes, and soil moisture. Results reveal that the 100-year joint return period of extreme flood events has decreased significantly from (219,247m3  8264.58m3/s) in the stationary case to (175,881m3   7,241.52m3/s) in the nonstationary case for the volume-peak pair. Similarly, for the duration-volume pair, the stationary 100-year return period supersedes the nonstationary 100-year return period from (21.41days  149,776m3)  to (21.44days  159,189m3). Furthermore, the 100-year return level under stationary conditions (8150.44m3/s   30.23 days) is notably higher than the nonstationary equivalent (6995.5m3/s   25.09 days). The proposed methodology enhances the reliability of flood risk assessments by addressing the temporal evolution of key flood variables. Although not directly focused on early warning systems, the insights from this study can inform the development of probabilistic flood forecasting models and improve decision-making processes for disaster preparedness. By integrating physical drivers into multivariate flood frequency analysis, this work contributes to a deeper understanding of nonstationarity in flood regimes. The findings provide valuable implications for designing more adaptive and region-specific flood forecasting and warning systems, ultimately supporting global efforts to mitigate the impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events.

How to cite: Ankush, A., Goel, N. K., and Vinnarasi, R.: Advancing Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationarity: Implications for Flood Forecasting Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1102, 2025.

EGU25-1842 | ECS | Orals | HS4.7

Optimizing Flood Monitoring Networks Using eXplainable AI and Physical Informed approaches: A Case Study of the Piracicaba River Basin in Brazil 

Pedro Solha, Rodrigo Perdigão, Bruno Brentan, Andrea Menapace, Julian Eleutério, and André Rodrigues

Effective monitoring and forecasting of flood events are key aspects of early warning systems, especially in areas susceptible to frequent floods. In this context, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have proven to be a strong tool for enhancing such systems because they can capture non-linear processes of flood genesis. AI models make accurate predictions with minimum processing time, thus providing a strong alternative to nowcasting. However, the quality and quantity of monitoring stations and the black-box nature of machine learning (ML) models hamper the development of efficient and adaptable Early Warning Systems (EWS). Accordingly, this study aims to investigate the impact of data quality and quantity on the performance of data-driven flood forecasting models built upon eXplainable AI (XAI) and Physically Informed (PI) approaches. Intending to develop a predictive analysis of stage level in this flood-hit city of Piracicaba, the Piracicaba River catchment had 18 gauging stations with 10-minute time-step rainfall and stage monitoring used for model resiliency checks based on the MLP network. This included defining the structure of the model and the input variables determined by previous studies on flood wave propagation times prior to training and testing the model. This approach considered such hydrological aspects as incorporation into the machine learning framework. A deterioration algorithm was developed to simulate the gradual introduction of gaps in the stage and rainfall time series (10% to 100%), designed to assess the impacts of failures and monitoring errors on model prediction. This methodology provides a way to assess how the ML model would be able to handle misinformation and failures in flood predictions, while at the same time, drawing a line of priority regarding the stations to maintain the effectiveness of EWS. XAI enabled us to assess the hydrological aspects behind the models’ performance and the stations’ importance, which are crucial pieces of information for planning maintenance campaigns and allocating budget. Moreover, improvement in the monitoring network is possible by defining places for installing new sensors based on the physical aspects behind runoff onset and flood propagation. Therefore, PI and XAI are central to enhancing EWS under changing climate because they incorporate knowledge of hydrological dynamics into station selection and ML model development.

How to cite: Solha, P., Perdigão, R., Brentan, B., Menapace, A., Eleutério, J., and Rodrigues, A.: Optimizing Flood Monitoring Networks Using eXplainable AI and Physical Informed approaches: A Case Study of the Piracicaba River Basin in Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1842, 2025.

EGU25-1851 | Posters on site | HS4.7

Real-time pluvial flood forecasting model for mega cities based on a heterogeneous supercomputer 

Tong Chen, Jian Sun, Zihao Zhang, and Binliang Lin

In recent years, China has frequently been affected by urban flooding especially in megacities with populations exceeding ten million, which are concentrated in the East Asian monsoon climate zone. Hydrodynamic models are effective tools for predicting flood disasters. However, large urban areas with hundreds of square kilometers result in a high computational burden for modeling. This study develops a high-resolution pluvial flood forecasting model based on a national supercomputing center. The model effectively leverages the heterogeneous architecture of supercomputer and can access precipitation forecast data from ECMWF to achieve real-time predictions for mega cities. Hydraulic modeling is based on the diffusion wave equation, discretized by finite difference method. The model divides the study area into several equal rectangular partition depending on preset spatial parameters. Structured grids are defined. Employing MPI (Message Passing Interface) as parallel tool, one CPU core and one DCU (Deep Computing Unit) are used for calculation of each partition. The model is validated using two rainfall and water depth datasets collected from Tsinghua Campus. Taking Chengdu, with an area of approximately 600 km2 and a resolution of 1 m, as the study area, five partitioning schemes are set up to compare the computing time for CPU-only and CPU+DCU computation. Model performance is tested by simulating 3-hour surface runoff process with over 600 million grids. The results show that when over 6000 CPU cores and 6000 DCUs are used, the model can complete the simulation in 10 minutes. It represents a speedup of about 5 times compared to equal number of CPU cores computation without DCUs, and approximately 500 times faster than using 64 CPU cores. The model demonstrates near-linear speedup when using only CPUs, suggesting that it is approximately 30,000 times faster than single CPU core computation. By analyzing computational time of each process during model execution, hydrodynamic calculation is faster by tens of times on DCUs than on CPUs. Message passing and input/output time on CPUs will impact the scalability of the model.

How to cite: Chen, T., Sun, J., Zhang, Z., and Lin, B.: Real-time pluvial flood forecasting model for mega cities based on a heterogeneous supercomputer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1851, 2025.

EGU25-2425 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.7

High-Performance Full-Scale Urban Flood Prediction: A Scalable Solution for Dynamic Inundation Mapping  

Pouria Nakhaei, Ruidong Li, and Guangheng Ni

Floods pose a significant threat to urban areas due to their high population densities and extensive infrastructure, a vulnerability exacerbated by climate change, rapid urbanization, and the proliferation of impermeable surfaces. While traditional flood prediction efforts have focused on maximum inundation depths, dynamic flood inundation mapping has gained prominence for its ability to provide detailed insights into flood timing, duration, and progression, which are critical for effective emergency response, infrastructure planning, and resilience-building. The integration of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) has improved modeling accuracy by capturing intricate urban topographies, but this advancement has introduced substantial computational challenges, particularly for large-scale, fine-resolution simulations using physics-based hydrodynamic models. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs), particularly U-Net, have shown promise in flood prediction due to their ability to handle complex segmentation tasks and varying input sizes; however, scaling these models to handle large datasets with meter-scale resolutions remains computationally intensive. Addressing this challenge, this study develops a novel approach to predict dynamic flood maps for a large urban area at 10-meter resolution (~10⁶ cells) by dividing the area into smaller tiles for U-Net training, leveraging a comprehensive rainstorm-inundation database (200 cases) created through 2D hydrodynamic simulations, and integrating results into a surrogate model. This innovative framework delivers accurate and rapid predictions of flood dynamics, including spatial extent, depth, and temporal evolution, providing essential tools for urban flood risk management and mitigation strategies. For training, validation, and testing of the U-Net model, 160, 30, and 20 cases were used, respectively. The RMSE, CSI, and POD metrics were used to evaluate the model's performance on the validation and test datasets. The results show high performance for validation with RMSE, CSI, and POD values of 0.015, 0.92, and 0.74, respectively, and for testing with values of 0.017, 0.90, and 0.81, respectively.

How to cite: Nakhaei, P., Li, R., and Ni, G.: High-Performance Full-Scale Urban Flood Prediction: A Scalable Solution for Dynamic Inundation Mapping , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2425, 2025.

EGU25-4004 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.7 | Highlight

Development of a Real-Time Flood Prediction and Early Warning System for Underground Spaces 

Song I Lee, Jinhyeok Kim, Kwanghyun Kim, Jonghwan Kang, and Hwandon Jun

 The frequency of unprecedented localized torrential rainfalls, such as the 2024 heavy rainfall event in South Korea, has been increasing due to climate change. Simultaneously, urbanization has intensified the development of underground spaces and excavation sites due to population concentration. This study assesses the risks associated with evacuation routes in various types of underground spaces during extreme rainfall events and develops a real-time flood prediction and early warning system that incorporates evacuation lead time analysis.

 A testbed was established in a watershed that experiences chronic flooding caused by the combined effects of seawater intrusion, external runoff, and internal drainage issues. Using Arc-GIS, a detailed topographic model was constructed for the region. To analyze dynamic flood risks under real-time rainfall conditions, novel rainfall scenarios were created by combining observed rainfall data from rain gauges with predicted rainfall data from radar systems. Observed rainfall from rain gauges within the watershed, measured up to one hour prior, was distributed according to Huff’s 4th quartile pattern, while predicted rainfall for the subsequent 30 minutes was distributed using Huff’s 1st quartile pattern. These patterns were combined to simulate the worst-case scenario, representing the most challenging evacuation conditions.

 These datasets provided the foundational framework for conducting two-dimensional flood simulations using XP-SWMM. The risks along evacuation routes were quantified by calculating the product of flood depth and flow velocity(hv). Furthermore, a flood risk nomograph was developed, and alert levels were defined based on the timing of risk escalation.

 The real-time flood prediction and early warning system proposed in this study has the potential to be applied to flood-prone disaster zones across the country. By evaluating evacuation route risks under various rainfall scenarios, this system enables the timely transmission of evacuation alerts and warnings to minimize disaster impacts.

 

How to cite: Lee, S. I., Kim, J., Kim, K., Kang, J., and Jun, H.: Development of a Real-Time Flood Prediction and Early Warning System for Underground Spaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4004, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4004, 2025.

In April 2022, the city of Durban in South Africa experienced one of its most devastating floods in history, with 300 mm or more recorded in the 24-hour period on 11-12 April. This extreme event led to approximately 430 fatalities and infrastructure damages estimated at 1 billion US dollars.

The primary objective of this study was to calibrate the hydrological model (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) by using observed precipitation data, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 10 m, soil maps, land use and landcover (LULC)  maps, and hydraulic structures characteristics of one of the affected areas - Inanda. The methodology involved simulating flood extent, inundation levels and flow hydrographs and subsequently comparing these outputs with observed data obtained from rainfall stations, river gauges and weirs.

The simulated results indicated a discharge of 570 m3/s in the main channel of the Mngeni River. The flood peaked on April 12, 2022, between 11:00 PM and 12:00 PM, aligning closely with observed peak flow discharges recorded by local authorities. The study identified that areas around tributaries of the Mngeni River were more severely impacted than the main channel, with flood inundation depths reaching up to 5 metres. Based on aerial imagery, the Durban Harbour experienced the most extensive flooding in terms of spatial coverage, with water depths of approximately 1 metre. This flooding led to significant disruptions, including the closure of major highways and the port.  

This study successfully calibrated critical parameters required for the development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS), reducing the discrepancies between observed and simulated data. To further enhance the accuracy and reliability of future flood prediction models, the study recommends the creation of high-resolution soil maps and more detailed LULC maps specifically tailored for flood-prone. Such advancements could prove to be crucial for strengthening flood preparedness and mitigating risks in similarly vulnerable regions.

How to cite: Byaruhanga, N. and Kibirige, D.: From Chaos to Preparedness: Recreating the Durban,  April 2022 Floods using Enhanced Hydrological and Hydraulic Modelling for Flood Early Warning Systems., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4827, 2025.

EGU25-6214 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.7

Assessing the Role of Overbank Flow in Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study of Myanmar River basin Using WRF-Hydro 

Qi Sun, Joël Arnault, Patrick Laux, and Harald Kunstmann

Climate change has significant impacts on water resources, making the study of hydrological cycle alterations essential for understanding regional climate dynamics. Hydrological models are crucial tools for quantifying these changes and assessing their implications.The Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological Model (WRF-Hydro), is widely used to simulate regional hydrological processes. This study evaluates the performance of an enhanced version of WRF-Hydro, incorporating an overbank flow module, in simulating runoff for the Myanmar region from 2010 to 2012. The model was driven by offline forcing datasets, specifically Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) precipitation products, and the simulated results were compared with observed runoff data. The findings indicate that simulations driven by IMERG precipitation data outperformed those driven by ERA5 in terms of accuracy, likely due to IMERG’s superior representation of regional precipitation patterns. Model performance was assessed by comparing simulated runoff with measurements from seven hydrological stations, where the modified model showed consistent improvements over the default model. NSE improved from −0.27 to 0.49 (default) to 0.51 to 0.62 (modified), indicating enhanced accuracy and reliability. A more detailed analysis of the water cycle reveals that the incorporation of the overbank flow module initially reduces surface runoff, which is offset by an increase in soil moisture storage, accompanied by a slight rise in underground runoff and evapotranspiration. Toward the end of the season, surface runoff increases, which can be attributed to the higher soil storage at the start of the season. These results highlight the significant impact of the overbank flow module on hydrological processes, particularly in flood-prone areas, and suggest that the modified model enhances hydrological forecasting capabilities.

How to cite: Sun, Q., Arnault, J., Laux, P., and Kunstmann, H.: Assessing the Role of Overbank Flow in Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study of Myanmar River basin Using WRF-Hydro, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6214, 2025.

Observed runoff is, in principle, an ideal observation to be used for updating the moisture states in a hydrological model because runoff is 1) integrated catchment scale information (unlike precipitation and snow water equivalent, 2) usually well measured 3) frequently measured and 4) a direct measurement of what the model is supposed to predict. However, the model structure needs to be such that the discrepancies between observed and simulated runoff can easily and unambiguously be translated into altered moisture states. In this study, we have altered the subsurface moisture state in the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD). If the model underestimates runoff, more water is added as an extra precipitation event and if the model overestimates runoff, we subtract water by having an extra evapotranspiration event. The magnitude of the precipitation/evapotranspiration event is the sum of small increments (+- 0.5 % of the subsurface storage) which are added or reduced from the models’ subsurface storage until observed and simulated runoff are equal. In the DDD model, precipitation and evapotranspiration are distributed in time according to unit hydrographs (UH) estimated using the calibrated subsurface celerities and the distance distribution describing the distances from points in the hillslopes to the river network. The UHs can be seen as sets of weights distributing the input in time. In such a way the added and subtracted water influences the simulated runoff for a period of time determined by the temporal scale of the UHs which vary from catchment to catchment. The immediate correction on runoff is only due to a fraction of the added/subtracted water which is determined by the UHs. We have tested the updating procedure for 25 Norwegian catchments of different sizes and located all over Norway and in different climatic zones. The model is run on 3h temporal resolution and we tested the efficiency of updating for two levels of runoff; i) if observed runoff is higher 2x mean annual discharge (MAD) and the discrepancy between simulated and observed is more than 20% and ii) if observed runoff is higher than the mean annual flood (MAF) and the discrepancy between simulated and observed is more than 20%. On average for the 25 catchments, updating had a positive effect on the root mean square error for lead times less than 33 hours for events higher than MAF and for lead times less than 42 hours for events higher than 2xMAD.  For lead times less than 18 hours, 69 % of the updates improved the runoff forecasts for events higher than MAF and 70 % for events higher than 2xMAD.

How to cite: Skaugen, T. and Bakke, S. J.: Improving runoff forecasts by using observed runoff to update the subsurface moisture state in the DDD model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6984, 2025.

Flooding has increasingly posed significant challenges in the Western Cape, South Africa, with the September 2023 floods in Franschhoek underscoring the vulnerability of the region to extreme rainfall events. During this event, the area received over 220 mm of rainfall within 48 hours, resulting in extensive flooding that inundated approximately 500 hectares, displaced over 1,000 residents, and caused substantial damage to infrastructure. This study developed an integrated Flood Risk Information System (FRIS) designed for flood-prone regions in the Western Cape, utilizing Earth Observation (EO) technologies, hydrological modelling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

The system integrated historical flood data, municipal hydrological observations, and real-time environmental variables, including rainfall, river discharge, and soil moisture, to enhance flood risk prediction, monitoring, and response. Hydrological modelling was conducted using the HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System) and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models. Machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), were implemented to predict flood probabilities. Model outputs were validated against observed data from the local municipality, which included flood extent maps and river discharge measurements.

The system demonstrated high accuracy in predicting flood extents, with the HEC-HMS model achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 12% compared to observed discharge data. The machine learning models yielded flood prediction accuracies of 87% (RF) and 91% (GBM) when compared to observed flood extents. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used to process large EO datasets, allowing for real-time flood mapping and risk analysis.

The FRIS proved instrumental in being able to model the September 2023 floods by providing accurate predictions and mapping, enabling disaster management agencies to target evacuation efforts and allocate resources effectively. However, further improvements are planned, including incorporating finer-resolution rainfall and topographic data, expanding the system’s spatial coverage, and integrating socio-economic indicators to assess community vulnerability better.

This study highlighted the potential of combining EO, GEE, GIS, and advanced hydrological models in improving flood risk management. The FRIS provides a powerful framework for mitigating flood impacts and protecting vulnerable communities, aligning with broader efforts to enhance climate adaptation and resilience in the Western Cape.

How to cite: Kibirige, D.: Integrated Flood Risk System for the Western Cape: Lessons from the September 2023 Floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9855, 2025.

EGU25-11597 | Posters on site | HS4.7

Optimizing Hydrometric Network Design for National Flood Forecasting and Warning Services (NFFWS) 

Matt Roberts, Jennifer Canavan, Ciarán Broderick, and Rosemarie Lawlor

Effective flood forecasting and warning systems depend on robust hydrometric networks tailored to meet the functional, geographical, and operational demands of real-time monitoring. This study outlines the ideal requirements for hydrometric data collection and transmission systems to support the National Flood Forecasting and Warning Service (NFFWS). Key considerations include spatial and temporal coverage, gauge placement in flood-prone areas, and sufficient resolution to align with hydrological models.

Recommendations emphasize the need for durable, reliable infrastructure designed for extreme conditions, adherence to international standards, and regular maintenance protocols. Priority gauges—those critical for public safety, hydrological model calibration, and flood risk management—should be safeguarded, with enhancements in accuracy, redundancy, and telemetry for real-time data transmission. Network resilience is bolstered by backup power, dual communication systems, and fault alerts.

Another critical component for flood forecasting is the sub-daily rainfall network. High-resolution, high-quality rainfall data at sub-daily intervals are essential for capturing short-duration, intense rainfall events that can lead to flash flooding. The design of a sub-daily rainfall network should prioritize strategic placement of gauges in areas with high rainfall variability and known flood risk areas. Real-time data collection and transmission are paramount to ensure timely updates for flood forecasting models. Integration of automated quality control processes can further enhance the reliability of sub-daily rainfall data.

We propose systematic reviews of network performance, integration of historical and real-time data archives, and automated quality control to improve data reliability. Advanced metadata management and API-based data dissemination enhance usability for stakeholders. These standards ensure hydrometric networks remain integral to flood forecasting, minimizing flood risks and improving public safety. The findings provide a blueprint for developing resilient, effective hydrometric networks that address the evolving needs of flood forecasting and warning services.

How to cite: Roberts, M., Canavan, J., Broderick, C., and Lawlor, R.: Optimizing Hydrometric Network Design for National Flood Forecasting and Warning Services (NFFWS), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11597, 2025.

EGU25-12740 | ECS | Orals | HS4.7

Enhanced LSTM Model for Flood Forecasting Systems: A Case Study of the Piracicaba River Basin in Brazil 

Rodrigo Bezerra, Pedro Solha, André Rodrigues, Bruno Brentan, and Julian Eleutério

The heavy rains and floods that struck southern Brazil in May 2024 highlighted the vulnerability of the population to extreme hydrological disasters, resulting in 176 confirmed fatalities, around 40 people missing, and over 422,000 individuals displaced. Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) are crucial tools for reducing flood-related damage and fatalities. The accurate prediction of flood peaks and their timing is essential for effective evacuation planning. This study proposes an enhanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for runoff prediction, incorporating novel loss functions that prioritize flood periods (e.g., peak flow and peak timing) , while reducing the importance of normal and low flow periods. Additionally, the study evaluates the model’s performance across various forecast horizons (0 – 24 hours), aiming to understand how forecast accuracy varies with increasing forecast horizons. Using Piracicaba City in Brazil as a case study, 10-minute flood stage and rainfall data from 18 upstream stations (2018–2023) were utilized to predict flood stages at the target station using the enhanced LSTM model. The results compare LSTM predictions with traditional loss functions (e.g., mean absolute error) to those using the newly designed loss functions, evaluated through several metrics to assess improvements in flood prediction accuracy. By analyzing the model’s accuracy across different forecast horizons, the study provides valuable insights into the optimal lead time for issuing warnings in Flood Early Warning Systems.

How to cite: Bezerra, R., Solha, P., Rodrigues, A., Brentan, B., and Eleutério, J.: Enhanced LSTM Model for Flood Forecasting Systems: A Case Study of the Piracicaba River Basin in Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12740, 2025.

EGU25-12802 | ECS | Orals | HS4.7

Modeling snowpack evolution and water discharge in the Po River basin at 1 km resolution: a retrospective analysis (1991-2020) 

Matteo Lorenzo, Esmaeil Pourjavad Shadbad, Francesco Avanzi, Andrea Libertino, Jost von Hardenberg, and Silvia Terzago

The Alps are a crucial water reservoir for over 170 million people in Europe, storing water as snow and ice during the cold season and releasing it during the warm season. However, climate warming is causing earlier snowmelt and glacier shrinkage, leading to a mismatch between water availability and peak demand, thereby increasing the risk of water shortages and conflicts among key users such as agriculture, energy, and tourism. In this framework, skillful seasonal climate predictions combined with snow-hydrological modeling might help in the early warning of water shortages. Recent studies show advancements in the seasonal prediction of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE); however, it remains uncertain whether these improvements translate into accurate predictions of streamflow and water availability.  

Within the PRIN-2022 SPHERE1 project, we developed a novel modeling chain which takes advantage of the state-of-the-art bias-corrections methods, downscaling techniques, and snow-hydrological modeling tools to model snowpack evolution, river discharge, and water availability in Alpine river basins. The modeling chain comprises the S3M snow model and the HMC Continuum hydrological model. S3M is a spatially distributed cryospheric model that simulates snow and glacier mass balance, while HMC is a spatially distributed hydrologic model that solves the mass and energy balance of vegetation and soils. The modeling setup, validated in previous projects, operates on a regular grid with a 1 km spatial resolution and an hourly time step over the Po River basin. For this domain, ERA5 reanalysis meteorological variables were used to generate the forcing for the baseline run of the modeling chain. ERA5 inputs, originally at 0.25° spatial resolution, were appropriately bias-corrected and downscaled to 1 km. A 30-year baseline simulation was then generated to reconstruct the historical evolution of mountain snowpack (in terms of SWE and snow depth), meltwater runoff, and streamflow.

We present here an initial evaluation of the snow-hydrological modeling chain over the study area for the period 1991-2020. Simulations of snow depth, SWE and river discharge were compared against various available observations from snow gauges and Italian regional hydrological networks, in terms of bias, RMSE and correlation.  As a next step, the modeling chain will be extended to run using seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus seasonal prediction systems (ECMWF S51, MF S8, CMCC S35, DWD S21) to generate retrospective seasonal forecasts of snow and hydrological variables over the same study domain. The forecast skill of the modelling chain will be evaluated for starting dates November 1st and May 1st, to assess the possibility of anticipating water availability several months in advance for the winter and summer seasons, respectively.

1Progetto di Ricerca di rilevante Interesse Nazionale (PRIN-2022): Seasonal Prediction of water-availability: enHancing watER sEcurity from high mountains to plains (SPHERE)

How to cite: Lorenzo, M., Pourjavad Shadbad, E., Avanzi, F., Libertino, A., von Hardenberg, J., and Terzago, S.: Modeling snowpack evolution and water discharge in the Po River basin at 1 km resolution: a retrospective analysis (1991-2020), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12802, 2025.

EGU25-13758 | Orals | HS4.7

Seasonal rainfall forecasts for drought situations in West Africa 

Jan Bliefernicht, Manuel Rauch, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Souleymane Sy, Moussa Waongo, and Harald Kunstmann

Reliable seasonal rainfall forecasts are essential for improved early warning of large-scale droughts in West Africa but remain a major challenge for national meteorological services in the region. This study presents a statistical post-processing approach for improved probabilistic forecasting of seasonal rainfall amounts for the West Africa region. The novel approach relies on a circulation pattern approach to incorporate seasonal and interannual dynamics of West African monsoon processes, such as the Saharan Heat Low or the Tropical Easterly Jet, in combination with a simple logistic regression to predict rainfall amounts. The approach was tested in a reanalysis mode (1960 to 2010) for several climatic regions in West Africa using ERA5 in parallel to a regional station-based precipitation dataset and state-of-the-art global precipitation products such as CHIRPS. In addition, the statistical approach was applied to a hindcast period (1981 – 2023) for the peak monsoon period in West Africa and compared with the raw precipitation forecasts of ECMWF's SEAS5 and the real-time forecasts of the national weather services in West Africa subjectively produced as part of the West African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (WARCOF, 1998-2023). The study shows that the circulation pattern model outperforms both WARCOF and the raw rainfall forecasts of SEAS5. While WARCOF and SEAS5 show some forecasting skill for above and below normal conditions, both models show common limitations often observed in seasonal forecasting, such as lack of sharpness and a strong over-forecasting of near-normal conditions due to a risk aversion of the WARCOF experts. The circulation pattern-based approach provides much more accurate precipitation forecasts with greater reliability. Furthermore, a theoretical assessment of the economical value shows that the circulation pattern approach provides positive economic values for a wide range of potential users making it more suitable for forecasting rainfall amounts in drought situations in this region compared to SEAS5 and WARCOF. This study therefore provides a basic statistical post-processing approach for producing more accurate operational seasonal rainfall forecasts in the long-term for this challenging region.

How to cite: Bliefernicht, J., Rauch, M., Sawadogo, W., Sy, S., Waongo, M., and Kunstmann, H.: Seasonal rainfall forecasts for drought situations in West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13758, 2025.

EGU25-17195 | Orals | HS4.7

Enhancing Global Flood Forecasting: A Methodological Framework for Assessing High-Resolution Simulations in the DestinE G-EDT 

Maliko Tanguy, Gabriele Arduini, Matthieu Chevallier, Jasper M.C. Denissen, Peter Dueben, Estibaliz Gascon, Thomas Haiden, Cinzia Mazzetti, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Gwyneth Matthews, Oisin Morrison, Christel Prudhomme, Christoph Rüdiger, Irina Sandu, Benoît Vannière, Michel Wortmann, and Ervin Zsoter

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events highlight the urgent need for more accurate flood forecasting to mitigate the devastating impacts on communities and ecosystems. The DestinE programme aims to address this challenge by enhancing the accuracy of meteorological forecasts, particularly for extreme weather events, through higher resolution, which in turn is expected to improve flood forecasting capabilities. Nearly one year of Global Extremes Digital Twin (G-EDT) simulations, providing high-resolution meteorological data, has been generated as part of the programme. These simulations drive ECMWF’s Land Surface Modelling System (ecLand) producing runoff generation, which is then routed through the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain model (CaMa-Flood) to simulate river flow. A key challenge, however, is evaluating the performance of these new high-resolution prototype systems, especially given the limited availability of long-term hindcast data for evaluation. With only a short data period available, it becomes challenging to robustly assess the predictive skill of these models in forecasting flood events.

To overcome this limitation, we have developed a methodological framework that facilitates a rigorous evaluation of these high-resolution systems, enabling meaningful assessments of their forecasting skill despite the constrained data period, focusing on the potential of the G-EDT to improve hydrological forecasting in comparison with the forecasts produced by ECMWF’s operational system at lower resolution. Specifically, the framework investigates:

  • Significance Testing: Statistical testing (e.g. Student t-test) are employed to assess whether observed differences in forecast skill are statistically significant and not a result of sampling variability.
  • Multi-Metric Evaluation: Beyond traditional performance scores like Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), the analysis incorporates flow duration curves, bias decomposition, and regional variability assessments to capture a broader range of hydrological behaviours and extremes.
  • Threshold Definition: Using six years of historical simulations, thresholds for different return periods are calculated to enable flood characterisation of different severity.
  • Global and Regional Assessments: The framework evaluates performance at both global and regional scales, considering spatial variability in hydrological processes and the availability of ground-truth observations for validation.

Moreover, the results lay the foundation for a continuously evolving evaluation system for the G-EDT, designed to adapt as longer datasets become available.

The results of this analysis offer valuable insights into the benefits and limitations of using high-resolution simulations for global hydrological forecasting, particularly in the context of extreme events, and will inform future improvements of the global Extremes Digital Twin in DestinE (G-EDT).

How to cite: Tanguy, M., Arduini, G., Chevallier, M., Denissen, J. M. C., Dueben, P., Gascon, E., Haiden, T., Mazzetti, C., Mastrantonas, N., Matthews, G., Morrison, O., Prudhomme, C., Rüdiger, C., Sandu, I., Vannière, B., Wortmann, M., and Zsoter, E.: Enhancing Global Flood Forecasting: A Methodological Framework for Assessing High-Resolution Simulations in the DestinE G-EDT, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17195, 2025.

EGU25-19082 | Posters on site | HS4.7

Navigating low inflows – experiences of a hydro power generator 

Anna Matala, Jason Hunter, and Kim Robinson

Hydro Tasmania is Tasmania’s main power generator and the guardian of many of its waterways with unique natural values. The water that powers the island state, as well as part of the mainland Australia, is a valuable shared resource between all Tasmanians environmentally, culturally, and economically. Hydro Tasmania needs to navigate several different objectives of providing the right amount of affordable energy to its residents, while meeting farmers’ irrigation requirements, maintaining lake levels appropriate to various types of recreational users, and protecting Tasmania’s vulnerable environment and endangered fauna.

Tasmania’s hydro power stations are mostly located in areas that historically receive high rainfall and inflows, but this is becoming less frequent with the climate change. The magnitude of the inflows our catchments collected over the last year was smallest in decades. Climate change also brings other extreme events such as flooding after drought and bushfires. The only way to successfully mitigate the impact of reduced inflows is by having an accurate inflow forecasting system. When water is scarce, optimisation and planning become an essential asset. It is required for scheduling of the power stations, for ensuring dam safety and for protecting the communities and environment. To complicate the problem further, Tasmania is located in the middle of different weather systems, and has a challenging topography with mountains and valleys, forests and plains, and it is surrounded by sea. This makes inflow forecasting at specific locations extremely challenging.

Until recently, our inflow forecasts were hydrographs based on deterministic models that were used as the best estimate across all the applications and end-users. These models are robust, and easy to interpret, but they do not provide information about uncertainties and probabilities of the extreme inflows. Our answer to the challenge is an all-purpose hydrological forecasting system. It consists of three timescales; short-term, outlook and long term, but more importantly, instead of resulting a single forecast, it provides an ensemble of 200 forecasts. This supplies the decision makers more visibility to the probability of different events which enables more optimised planning and using of water.

In this talk, we describe our new inflow forecasting system, and share experiences of how this has been a valuable asset in navigating one of the driest years in recorded history of Tasmania.

How to cite: Matala, A., Hunter, J., and Robinson, K.: Navigating low inflows – experiences of a hydro power generator, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19082, 2025.

EGU25-1336 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.8

Mechanisms and simulation methods for the impact of small reservoirs on watershed hydrological processes 

Yiwen Wang, Ping-an Zhong, Feilin Zhu, Xinyuan Qian, Bin Wang, and Yu Han

The widespread implementation of small-scale hydraulic engineering structures has profoundly modified the underlying surface characteristics of watersheds, leading to significant changes in rainfall-runoff processes. Understanding the mechanisms by which small reservoirs influence runoff generation and routing, as well as developing effective simulation methods, is crucial for enhancing flood forecasting accuracy at the watershed scale. This research seeks to construct aggregated reservoirs based on the topological relationships of small storage bodies and to integrate these with existing hydrological models, thereby improving the precision of flood forecasting in humid watershed regions.

This study simplifies the diverse topological structures of small reservoirs into three foundational connection units: single-reservoir, series, and parallel configurations. These units are systematically combined into mixed configurations that realistically reflect the spatial distribution of storage bodies within watersheds. Furthermore, a multi-stage weir flow discharge scheme, specifically designed for aggregated reservoirs, is proposed based on field conditions, and the corresponding reservoir outflow equations are formulated. By coupling this newly developed reservoir storage-discharge module with the traditional lumped Xin'anjiang model, an improved version of the model is created, incorporating the regulatory effects of small reservoirs. To evaluate the performance of the improved Xin'anjiang model, 13 flood events were analyzed. Results demonstrated a substantial enhancement in simulation accuracy, with the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient improving by 0.27 during the calibration period and 0.40 during the validation period compared to the original model. Notably, the improved model excelled in simulating floods early in the flood season or following extended dry spells. However, its ability to simulate mid-to-late-season or multi-peak floods showed comparatively modest improvements. Additionally, the model's simulation accuracy was observed to decrease as flood magnitude increased.

Compared to traditional hydrological models that exclusively consider natural watershed processes, those incorporating aggregated reservoir storage and discharge dynamics offer a more nuanced representation of watershed hydrology. By significantly enhancing flood forecasting accuracy during the critical flood season, the improved model not only mitigates the impacts of flood disasters but also bolsters local water resource management capabilities.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Zhong, P., Zhu, F., Qian, X., Wang, B., and Han, Y.: Mechanisms and simulation methods for the impact of small reservoirs on watershed hydrological processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1336, 2025.

Physically based, distributed hydrological model(PBDHM) was proposed for long time, and was regarded to have the potential to improve the flood forecasting accuracy. But unfortunately, this is still in the dream due to some existing challenges, and the biggest one is model parameter determination. Initially, it was assumed that parameter of PBDHM should be derived from the terrain properties directly, such as the DEM, land use/cover(LUC) types and soil types, not calibrated like lumped conceptual model(LCM) by employing optimization algorithm. In fact, PBDHM’s parameter calibration is also infeasible considering its huge number of model parameters, that could be up to millions or even to billions. As there is no “optimal” references for deriving PBDHM’s parameters directly from terrain properties, PBDHM’s capability for real-time flood forecasting has been weakened, so limiting its use mainly in scientific studies. In this study, the author assumes that PBDHM also needs parameter “calibration”, and the theory and framework for PBDHM parameter optimization have been presented. Based on the Liuxihe model, which was proposed for watershed flood forecasting, an automatic parameter optimization algorithm has been proposed by employing Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). With parameter optimization, flood simulation accuracy of Liuxihe model has been improved largely, and very importantly, its performance is very stable. Not like LCM, model performance fluctuates sharply, thus limiting its capability being used for real-time flood forecasting. From dozens case studies in China, it also has been found that hydrological data from only one flood event is enough for parameter optimization, not like LCM, which requires hydrological data from a series of flood events. This finding is significant particularly for data-poor watershed, which makes PBDHM’s parameter optimization feasible for most of the world watersheds. With this advances, Liuxihe model has been used in several Chinses watersheds for real-time flood forecasting, and successful forecasting have been achieved. These successful implementations have proven that PBDHM has entered a new era for the real world application.

How to cite: Chen, Y.: How far is distributed hydrological model from real-time flood forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2048, 2025.

EGU25-3580 | Orals | HS4.8

Leveraging Twitter Trends for Early Flood Detection: A Case Study of Ruislip, UK 

Farshad Piadeh and Farzad Piadeh

Flooding poses significant risks to communities, necessitating timely and effective warning systems [1]. Social media platforms like Twitter provide a real-time avenue for gathering public insights during such events [2-3]. This study investigates the relationship between flood warning and alert systems announced by the Environment Agency and X(Twitter) trends for the specific area of River Pinn, located in Ruislip, London, UK.  This study employs a systematic approach to explore the interplay between social media activity and flood-related warnings. Keywords such as rainfall, rain, flooding, and flood were identified and used to extract relevant tweets associated with the River Pinn, Ruislip, UK. Data collection involved geotagging techniques and temporal filters to ensure spatial relevance and focus on periods of flood warnings issued by the Environment Agency. The extracted tweets were analysed for temporal trends and spatial distribution to assess their alignment with rainfall events and flooding status.

To investigate the temporal dynamics, cross-correlation analysis was performed between the volume of Twitter activity and the timeline of actual flooding events. Rainfall data from official meteorological sources were also incorporated into the analysis to ensure accurate mapping of precipitation to flooding events. The study further examined whether Twitter activity could act as a predictive tool, evaluating how far in advance users' tweets reflect flood-related concerns compared to observed flood warnings.

The analysis revealed a 30-minute lag between the onset of rainfall and the appearance of related Twitter activity, indicating that social media trends align closely with the progression of real-world weather conditions. More notably, Twitter users exhibited the ability to predict potential flooding events up to one hour in advance. This anticipatory behavior suggests that individuals, through collective observation and situational awareness, recognise the likelihood of flooding before it becomes a reality.The spatial distribution of tweets also highlighted localised concerns, reinforcing the value of geotagged data in enhancing situational awareness for specific areas like Ruislip. These findings underscore the viability of integrating social media insights into flood warning systems, offering a cost-effective and real-time supplement to traditional methods.

This study demonstrates the potential of Twitter as a dynamic tool for flood detection and early warning, with implications for improving emergency response strategies. By harnessing user-generated data, authorities can enhance the effectiveness of flood management systems and better protect at-risk communities.

References

[1] Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K. and Alani, A.M. (2022). A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 607, p.127476.

[2] Piadeh, F., Ahmadi, M., Behzadian, K. (2020). A Novel Planning Policy Framework for the Recognition of Responsible Stakeholders in the of Industrial Wastewater Reuse Projects. Journal of Water Policy, 24 (9), pp. 1541–1558.

[3] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Chen, A., Behzadian, K. (2024). Stakeholder Analysis in the Application of Cutting-Edge Digital Visualisation Technologies for Urban Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review. Expert Systems with Applications, p.121426.

How to cite: Piadeh, F. and Piadeh, F.: Leveraging Twitter Trends for Early Flood Detection: A Case Study of Ruislip, UK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3580, 2025.

EGU25-4234 | Orals | HS4.8

Curtailing flash flood impacts on vulnerable communities in data-scarce regions through the utilization of digital innovations 

Meron Teferi Taye, Haileyesus Belay Lakew, Oscar Lino, and Ellen Dyer

Flash floods cause substantial hazards, particularly in regions with limited hydro-meteorological data availability that hinder the development of forecasting models and post-hazard impact assessments. The absence of comprehensive on-ground datasets regarding flood hazard characteristics, exposure elements, and vulnerability can impede accurate evaluations and effective risk management strategies. With advanced technology, integrating remotely sensed imagery products with machine learning can enhance flash flood prediction capabilities in data-scarce regions. This study applies remote sensing and machine learning techniques to enhance the identification of rainfall sources that cause flash floods and improve inundation detection in Lodwar Town, Kenya. Considering the area's frequent flash floods, this methodology is crucial for assessing flood risks and the sudden and severe impacts on the local community. This analysis used remotely sensed rainfall products, CHIRPS, MSWEP, IMERG, and TAMSAT, and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from Aqua MODIS satellite representing flood-inundated locations. Correlation analysis was conducted between rainfall and NDWI at a daily timescale for 2002-2022.

The results show that among the rainfall products, CHIRPS and MSWEP showed better performance in terms of 0-day lag time correlation with NDWI values of Lodwar town with a 0.51 correlation coefficient. To enhance the predictive capabilities of the NDWI in Lodwar Town, a machine learning technique with the Decision Tree Regressor model was applied to the finer spatial resolution CHIRPS rainfall data. The findings indicate that the model improved the correlation coefficient between rainfall and NDWI to 0.64 with a 0-day lag time, demonstrating its effectiveness in identifying potential rainfall areas causing flooding in the town. These are in the west, north-west, and south-west of Lodwar Town. Rainfall observed in identified flash flood source areas with elevations ranging from 508m to 648m can lead to rapid flooding in the town. This flooding occurs with a 0-day lag time, as the town is situated at approximately 500m elevation. If forecasted rainfall data from the identified areas that trigger flash floods is available, this study showed that it is possible to anticipate potential flooding events in the town. The methodology proposed in this study is particularly important in regions that lack comprehensive hydro-meteorological datasets that can support needed information to prepare and minimize the impacts of flash floods.

How to cite: Taye, M. T., Lakew, H. B., Lino, O., and Dyer, E.: Curtailing flash flood impacts on vulnerable communities in data-scarce regions through the utilization of digital innovations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4234, 2025.

EGU25-8803 | Posters on site | HS4.8

Separation and estimation of reflectivity errors according to distance and altitude using Specific Differential Phase 

Seokhwan Hwang, Jungsoo Yoon, Narae Kang, and Seokhyeon Kim

In order to estimate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) with high accuracy for flood forecasting, the quantitative uncertainty of heavy rainfall observations of radar must be identified in the spatiotemporal aspect. Considering the beam attenuation and the height of precipitation detected by radio waves, the accuracy of observations tends to be higher in short-range areas where the degree of beam attenuation is less and the observation height is low in order to estimate accurate precipitation used for ground flood forecasting. However, there have not been many cases where the error of precipitation estimation according to distance and altitude has been individually quantified and evaluated. Against this background, this study analyzed 22 major heavy rainfall events observed by five S-band dual-polarization radars in 2016 to quantify the reflectivity error according to observation distance and altitude, and derived the reflectivity error according to distance and altitude separately using Specific Differential Phase (Kdp). The analysis results showed that the average distance error of rainfall radar was approximately 10% or less up to 100 km and exceeded 30% above 150 km. The radar average elevation error was found to be approximately 10% or less for the second elevation angle from the ground among the six operating elevation angles, 20% for the third and above, and over 50% for the fourth and above. And the changes in observation accuracy during the heavy rainfall according to the observation range of 300km and 150km were compared through experiments. The experimental results showed that the cumulative reflectivity of the 150km observation was large when the distance from the radar was less than 75km, and the cumulative reflectivity of the 150km observation was large when the distance was more than 75km. This study is expected to contribute to establishing an appropriate rainfall radar observation strategy when operating a rainfall radar for the purpose of accurate quantitative rainfall observation for flood forecasting.

 

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by a grant(2022-MOIS61-003(RS-2022-ND634022)) of Development Risk Prediction Technology of Storm and Flood for Climate Change based on Artificial Intelligence funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).

How to cite: Hwang, S., Yoon, J., Kang, N., and Kim, S.: Separation and estimation of reflectivity errors according to distance and altitude using Specific Differential Phase, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8803, 2025.

EGU25-10555 | Orals | HS4.8

Prediction of Heavy Metal Emissions from Uranium Mines to Water Resources During Flood Disasters Using Fick's Second Law Modeling 

Mohammad Gheibi, Martin Palušák, Daniele Silvestri, Miroslav Černík, and Stanisław Wacławek

During floods, heavy metal releases from mining pose serious environmental problems that require rapid and effective treatment [1]. Advanced modeling approaches enable cost-effective monitoring and detection, ensuring efficient and cost-effective management of this critical problem [2]. The Příbram Ore Region (Czech Republic), situated ~60 km southwest of Prague, is drained by the Litavka River (56 km, 630 km² watershed). In the region under study, smelting, sediment erosion, and historical silver and base metal ore-field mining all contribute to heavy metal contamination, which is made worse by periodic floods that carry pollutants downstream [3].

To address this, the present study applied Fick’s second law technique in MATLAB 2019b simulations to find emissions of the heavy metals based on time and spatial variations in the case study. The present simulation assumes: (1) constant diffusion coefficients for heavy metals in flood condition is assumed equal to 0.8 km²/day; (2) initial concentrations derived from flux-to-suspended particulate matter (SPM) ratios (Cd: 74 kg, Pb: 2954 kg, Zn: 5811 kg with SPM 2400 tons) [3]; (3) a uniform spatial distribution initially set to zero; (4) boundary concentrations at the source (Cd/SPM = 0.0308 mg/L, Pb/SPM = 1.231 mg/L, Zn/SPM = 2.421 mg/L) [3]; (5) Fick’s Second Law solved via explicit finite difference; (6) no external sources or sinks within the 2 km, 2 h simulation.

The simulation demonstrates the dispersion of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Zn) in a river during a flood event, assuming a uniform flux rate of 0.8 km²/day for all metals. Initial concentrations at the source are determined from flux-to-SPM ratios: Zn has the highest concentration (2.42 mg/L), followed by Pb (1.23 mg/L) and Cd (0.03 mg/L). As dispersion progresses, concentrations decrease and spread downstream, with the uniform flux rate ensuring comparable dispersion rates across all metals. Spatial profiles reveal a rapid decline in concentrations within the first 2 km, with Zn maintaining the highest overall spread due to its larger initial flux. Temporal heat maps show that, despite equal diffusion rates, Zn and Pb exhibit more extensive downstream spread due to their higher initial concentrations, while Cd remains more localized. These results emphasize the role of initial fluxes and source concentrations in determining heavy metal distribution during flood events. The uniform flux rate assumption simplifies the transport dynamics, providing insights into contamination spread and highlighting the need for monitoring strategies to mitigate environmental risks in mining-impacted regions.

Keywords: Uranium mining; Early-Warning; Hazardous materials; Fate and Transporte; Flood.

References

1. Foulds, S.A., Brewer, P.A., Macklin, M.G., Haresign, W., Betson, R.E. and Rassner, S.M.E., 2014. Flood-related contamination in catchments affected by historical metal mining: an unexpected and emerging hazard of climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 476, pp.165-180.

2. Hakim, D.K., Gernowo, R. and Nirwansyah, A.W., 2024. Flood prediction with time series data mining: Systematic review. Natural Hazards Research, 4(2), pp.194-220.

3. Žák, K., Rohovec, J. and Navrátil, T., 2009. Fluxes of heavy metals from a highly polluted watershed during flood events: a case study of the Litavka River, Czech Republic. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 203, pp.343-358.

How to cite: Gheibi, M., Palušák, M., Silvestri, D., Černík, M., and Wacławek, S.: Prediction of Heavy Metal Emissions from Uranium Mines to Water Resources During Flood Disasters Using Fick's Second Law Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10555, 2025.

EGU25-10563 | Posters on site | HS4.8

Development of an AI-Based Precipitation Type Classification Algorithm Using Dual-Polarization Variables from Weather Radar 

Narae Kang, Seokhwan Hwang, Jungsoo Yoon, and Seokhyeon Kim

The classification of precipitation types using weather radar plays a crucial role in improving the accuracy of weather forecasts and preparing for natural disasters. However, for accurate precipitation prediction using weather radar, additional data preprocessing steps, such as quality control and removal of non-meteorological echoes, are essential.

This study aimed to develop an algorithm for classifying atmospheric hydrometeors using dual-polarization variables from weather radar and artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Various AI models were compared and evaluated to select the model with the best performance and examine its applicability. This is expected to contribute to improving early warning systems for hazardous weather phenomena such as heavy rain or snowstorms.

 

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by a grant(2022-MOIS61-003(RS-2022-ND634022)) of Development Risk Prediction Technology of Storm and Flood for Climate Change based on Artificial Intelligence funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea).

 

How to cite: Kang, N., Hwang, S., Yoon, J., and Kim, S.: Development of an AI-Based Precipitation Type Classification Algorithm Using Dual-Polarization Variables from Weather Radar, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10563, 2025.

EGU25-13525 | ECS | Orals | HS4.8

Development of a Flood Early Warning System for Critical Catchments in Southern Chile 

Hector Garces-Figueroa and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

Floods are among the most devastating extreme events that affect people worldwide. Their frequency and severity are expected to increase as a result of climate change, which requires timely and informed decisions to protect people and reduce economic losses. In Chile, the current flood warning system compares real-time streamflow observations with flood thresholds calculated by the National Water Directorate (DGA) and issues flood warnings only a few hours in advance. Therefore, this work develops a prototype flood early warning system for Andean catchments, using meteorological ensemble forecasts coupled with a hydrological model that provides streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days.

The methodology implements the Novel Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimisation (NMPSO) algorithm to calibrate the TUWmodel, a conceptual hydrological model that explicitly accounts for snow processes and rainfall-runoff dynamics. This optimisation framework ensures robust parameter estimation for multiple hydrological objectives, with a focus on better reproducing high streamflows while preserving low-flows dynamics. The calibrated model is then forced with daily mean air temperature and precipitation data from two medium-range meteorological forecast ensembles, namely MSWX-Mid and ECMWF-IFS, comprising 30 and 51 members, respectively. To bias-correct meteorological forcings, an empirical quantile mapping approach is implemented using the daily 5-km Chilean dataset CR2METv2.5 as reference. The efficiency of the system is evaluated in three snow-influenced Andean catchments in southern Chile, which were affected by severe floods events during 2023 and 2024.

The developed prototype is expected to be soon available online to improve medium-range flood forecasting in critical Andean catchments and to provide timely and reliable information to decision makers and the public.

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of ANID-Fondecyt Regular 1212071 and ANID-PCI NSFC 190018, and  ANID/FONDAP 1523A0002.

How to cite: Garces-Figueroa, H. and Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: Development of a Flood Early Warning System for Critical Catchments in Southern Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13525, 2025.

Flood forecasting models are essential tools for mitigating the impacts of extreme hydrological events by providing early warnings and actionable insights. This study evaluates the performance of the Today's Earth (TE) model, JAXA's land surface simulation system developed under joint research with the University of Tokyo, by comparing its predictions against observed water level data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) measuring stations in Japan. The study also compares the results to Google’s SOTA hydrological model using the Google Runoff Reanalysis & Reforecast (GRRR) dataset. The GRRR model features a 7-day (168-hour) forecast window, while Today's Earth offers a shorter forecast window of 39 hours. The analysis focuses on major flood events in Japan (2020–2024), including typhoons and heavy precipitation events, to examine trends and accuracy in flood predictions over different lead times. This evaluation identifies strengths and areas for improvement in operational forecasting across diverse hydrological scenarios.

The methodology integrates a comprehensive dataset of water level observations and forecast outputs, with an emphasis on lead time-dependent peak timing and magnitude error. Forecasts were evaluated based on their ability to capture observed flood peaks, with errors in both peak magnitude and timing quantified for varying lead times. Performance metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Pearson correlation were calculated for each location and lead time.

Results reveal that forecast accuracy varies significantly with lead time, playing a critical role in the effectiveness of early warning systems. While Google's hydrological model performs better under normal flow conditions, Today's Earth model performs considerably better in both peak magnitude and timing during flood events. The GRRR dataset consistently underestimated peak magnitudes, highlighting the difficulty of forecasting extremes. Another key finding is the marked improvement in forecasting accuracy for the Today’s Earth model between 2021 and 2022, which coincides with the incorporation of observed precipitation data. Initial results indicate a significant enhancement in peak flow timing predictions following this update. This study evaluates how this modification improved forecasting results, emphasising the potential to refine TE’s algorithms and integrate additional observational data.

This research provides actionable insights into flood prediction reliability and demonstrates the value of leveraging Japan’s extensive network of water level gauges. Findings contribute to ongoing efforts to enhance flood forecasting systems globally and highlight the importance of targeted evaluations for improving model performance. The study's implications extend to disaster risk management, operational forecasting practices, and the broader pursuit of climate-resilient water management strategies.

How to cite: Wolf, M., Yamamoto, K., Liu, Y., and Yoshimura, K.: Evaluating the Performance of Flood Forecasting Models in Japan (2020-2024): Insights from Today's Earth, MLIT Observations and Google's SOTA hydrological model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14212, 2025.

Accurate reservoir inflow estimation is the foundation of flood forecasting and control. However, traditional inflow estimation methods based on water balance ignore the effects of observational errors in water level and dynamic reservoir capacity. These methods will cause significant fluctuation, generating negative inflow values over short intervals, and cannot capture lateral flows. To address these challenges, the study proposes a novel reservoir inflow estimation method combining the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother to account for water level observation errors and a 1D hydraulic model (1D-HM) to account for dynamic reservoir capacity. Firstly, a potential inflow ensemble is stochastically generated. Then, multiple 1D-HMs are conducted to simulate water levels under different potential inflow scenarios. Finally, the RTS smoother is employed to update the inflow ensemble and historical inflow records based on the differences between observed and simulated water levels. The estimation of smoothed upstream inflow and lateral inflow is achieved through rolling filtering. The proposed method is validated through numerical experiments and a real-world case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results show that: (1) In numerical experiments, the proposed method outperforms other comparative methods under various conditions, including errors in water levels, dynamic reservoir capacities, and lateral flows. (2) In the real case study, the proposed method can generate no-fluctuation reservoir inflow and lateral flow estimates at 15-minute intervals.

How to cite: Liu, Y. and Liu, P.: Estimation of reservoir inflow considering water level observation errors and dynamic reservoir capacity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14333, 2025.

One of the major challenges in improving flood management is the low reliability and limited availability of rainfall forecasts. This challenge becomes more pronounced in areas affected by rainfall originating in oceanic regions beyond the reach of land-based instruments. In such cases, satellite precipitation products (SPPs) present an alternative source of rainfall data for use in flooding- risk forecasts. To explore this possibility, it is essential to first establish whether there is a relationship between the SPP data and flood risk, and to what extent this relationship can be detected. Therefore, this research explores the historical relationship between rainfall events over the Atlantic Ocean, as captured by IMERG V07 estimates, and stream level variations in four UK catchments. The study utilizes over 20 years of data to perform cross-correlation analyses between stream level records and precipitation estimates from each pixel of the IMERG V07 grid in a selected region of the Atlantic near the UK. The analysis revealed several key insights into these relationships.: A) Each catchment has a distinct historical path for rainfall events moving across the ocean toward the UK, that are related to stream level variations. B) It is possible to identify the regions of the Atlantic that consistently produce the most impactful rainfall events affecting catchments in specific areas of the UK. C) The strongest rainfall-stream level relationships were observed at distances of up to 650 km, which may help to compensate for the 4-hour latency of IMERG V07 early run data, enhancing its suitability for real-time flood forecasting. Such findings are significant as they allow for a more focused approach and the direction of monitoring efforts for flood risk detection toward specific regions of the Atlantic rather than monitoring vast oceanic areas that leads to the processing large amounts of irrelevant data. The next phase of this study focus on applying these findings on the development of a machine learning model able to predict stream level variations based on the long-distance relationship with rainfall events, exploring the potential of earlier risk detection for increasing lead time of flooding forecasts

How to cite: Girotto, C., Behzadian, K., and Piadeh, F.: Historical Correlation Between IMERG V07 Rainfall Estimates Over the Atlantic Ocean and Stream Level Variations in Four UK Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14571, 2025.

EGU25-17415 | ECS | Orals | HS4.8

Flood Management Strategies Using Agent-Based Modelling and Public APIs: A Case Study in the UK 

Saeid Najjar-Ghabel, Kourosh Behzadian, Farzad Piadeh, and Atiyeh Ardakanian

Flood management is a critical challenge, especially in areas where climate change and urbanisation have altered the level of risk from floods [1]. The conventional approach to flood risk assessment is usually insensitive to behavioural couplings between human behaviour and flood dynamics, which severely affect the result of any management strategy [2]. On the other hand, behavioural simulation models such as agent-based modelling (ABM), present a promised alternative by allowing bottom-up explorations of flood management scenarios [3]. The present study tries to fill this gap by proposing activity-based ABM devised to evaluate flood management strategies for different flood risk scenarios in a UK case study. The model uses real-time travel data from the Google Maps application program interface (API) intending to simulate individual behavioural dynamics realistically in terms of movement patterns and responses in case of flooding. By integrating these behavioural insights with flood risk maps and infrastructural data, the model assesses the effectiveness of interventions such as flood warnings, evacuation plans, and adaptive infrastructure. The findings of this research demonstrate how ABMs can be used to inform decision-makers, contributing to the improvement of both short-term flood preparedness and response as well as long-term planning for infrastructure development. This study illustrates how dynamic and realistic modelling of interactions between humans and their environment can reveal the role of ABMs in advancing flood resilience planning.

References

[1] Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K. & Alani, A.M., (2022). A critical review of real-time modelling of flood forecasting in urban drainage systems. Journal of Hydrology, 607, 127476.

[2] Bakhtiari, V., Piadeh, F., Chen, A., Behzadian, K. (2024). Stakeholder Analysis in the Application of Cutting-Edge Digital Visualisation Technologies for Urban Flood Risk Management: A Critical Review. Expert Systems with Applications, p.121426.

[3] Zhuo, L., & Han, D. (2020). Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: a compendious literature review. Journal of Hydrology, 585, 124755.

How to cite: Najjar-Ghabel, S., Behzadian, K., Piadeh, F., and Ardakanian, A.: Flood Management Strategies Using Agent-Based Modelling and Public APIs: A Case Study in the UK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17415, 2025.

EGU25-18058 | ECS | Orals | HS4.8

Real-Time Flood Mapping Considering Dike Breaching 

Joris Hardy, Pierre Archambeau, Davide Mastricci, Vincent Schmitz, Alexis Melitsiotis, Sebastien Erpicum, Michel Pirotton, and Benjamin Dewals

Floods resulting from dike breaches pose significant risks to infrastructure and human safety. This study presents a comprehensive approach for real-time flood mapping, by combining machine-learning-based hydrological models and hydraulic simulations to estimate flood extent and impact following a dike breach in a network of waterways. The methodology integrates climate data, AI-driven hydrological predictions, efficient river flow models, and real-time flood mapping.

The procedure begins with the acquisition of meteorological data, including precipitation observations and forecasts (disaggregated at an hourly resolution). This data is updated at each triggering of the calculation to reflect the most current meteorological conditions. The precipitation data are then fed into an AI-based hydrological model, to predict river discharge values with a 24-hour lead time at key streamflow stations. These discharge predictions constitute the upstream boundary conditions for an efficient 1D staggered-grid hydraulic model of the network of waterways.

The hydraulic model simulates flow processes within the main channels. It is coupled to a model for the morphodynamic evolution of dike breaches. This model is semi-empirical and lumped, to account for the multi-scale nature of the breach process, in which certain failure mechanisms (e.g., slope failures) occur on much smaller spatial scales than those controlling flow dynamics in the channels and floodplains. By using a lumped model for the breach, the need for refining the computational grid in the near-field of the breach is reduced, while still capturing the main effects of complex geotechnical and sediment transport processes involved in dike failures.

The hydraulic model outputs, including computed water levels in the main channel, are used in conjunction with fragility functions representing the resistance of the earth-filled dikes, to determine the likelihood of dike breaches at potential breach locations. For each breach scenario, pre-computed results of a detailed 2D hydraulic model are used to assess the inundation depth, flow velocity, and flood extent across the floodplains. This enables creating dynamic danger maps that are crucial for identifying assets at-risk and estimating impacts (monetary damages). These outputs support the evaluation of potential mitigation measures, such as adjusting weir operations to divert floodwaters from vulnerable areas or redirecting flows toward alternate channels.

The novel procedure proposed here is demonstrated on a case study involving critical waterways in Belgium connecting the Meuse River to the Sea Port of Antwerp. The focus is set on a particular canal segment due to the high population density and presence of industrial infrastructures in the floodplains.

This research is co-funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe Innovation Actions under grant agreement No. 101069941 (PLOTO project: https://ploto-project.eu/)

How to cite: Hardy, J., Archambeau, P., Mastricci, D., Schmitz, V., Melitsiotis, A., Erpicum, S., Pirotton, M., and Dewals, B.: Real-Time Flood Mapping Considering Dike Breaching, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18058, 2025.

EGU25-19023 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.8

Creating a Near Real-Time 1-km Hourly Mean Temperature Gridded Dataset for Operational Flood Forecasting in Germany 

Mehrdad Mohannazadeh Bakhtiari, Husain Najafi, Ehsan Modiri, Oldrich Rakovec, and Luis Samaniego Eguiguren

Hydrological models often require gridded atmospheric fields, yet such datasets, particularly in high-resolution and near real-time, are often unavailable. Al- though precipitation is the most dominant variable in hydrological processes, temperature can influence river flow by influencing snowmelt, leading to snowmelt floods. Daily temperature data are often insufficient to capture floods, highlight- ing the importance of hourly temporal resolution. Currently, there is a lack of reliable real-time, hourly gridded temperature data for Germany. The DWD provides historical hourly temperature that is part of the HOSTRADA product [1]. However, the data are updated monthly by including the data from the pre- vious month. Near real-time hourly station records for temperature are freely available from the DWD. We assume that the average hourly temperature has smooth spatial and temporal distributions, facilitating a reliable interpolation with only 512 active stations.

This study investigates the interpolation of hourly station temperature data to generate a high-resolution historical and near-real-time gridded temperature dataset. The methods explored include ordinary kriging (OK) and external drift kriging (EDK) with topographical elevation as the drift variable. Various variogram models were considered for both methods. Cross-validation [2] was used to select the best interpolation method and determine an optimal distance for interpolation. The performance of the interpolated dataset, particularly EDK with an exponential variogram, was also validated against HOSTRADA from 1995 to 2023. The comparison yielded a root mean square error of 0.8◦C, demonstrating the robustness of the method. Based on this evaluation, a near real-time gridded temperature dataset is generated to serve as input to the hourly configuration of mHM for an operational flood prediction within HI- CAM II project.

In practice, the interpolation was performed using EDK software developed first by Samaniego et al. [3] which is implemented in Fortran and supports parallel computation. Its robustness and efficiency make it well-suited for pro- cessing and interpolating station data in large domains and in operational set- tings, ensuring timely and reliable outputs for hydrological application such as operational flood impact-based forecasting.

 

References

  • [1]  S Kr ̈ahenmann, A Walter, S Brienen, F Imbery, and A Matzarakis. High- resolution grids of hourly meteorological variables for germany. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131:899–926, 2018.

  • [2]  Steffen Zacharias, Heye Bogena, Luis Samaniego, Matthias Mauder, Roland Fuß, Thomas Pu ̈tz, Mark Frenzel, Mike Schwank, Cornelia Baessler, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, et al. A network of terrestrial environmental observatories in germany. Vadose zone journal, 10(3):955–973, 2011.

  • [3]  Luis Samaniego, Rohini Kumar, and Conrad Jackisch. Predictions in a data-sparse region using a regionalized grid-based hydrologic model driven by remotely sensed data. Hydrology Research, 42(5):338–355, 2011.

How to cite: Mohannazadeh Bakhtiari, M., Najafi, H., Modiri, E., Rakovec, O., and Samaniego Eguiguren, L.: Creating a Near Real-Time 1-km Hourly Mean Temperature Gridded Dataset for Operational Flood Forecasting in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19023, 2025.

EGU25-20021 | ECS | Orals | HS4.8

Combining Satellite Precipitation Products and Deep Learning to Increase Lead Times in Real-Time Riverine Flood Risk Forecasting 

Cristiane Girotto, Kourosh Behzadian, Farzad Piadeh, and Massoud Zolgharni

This research addresses the difficulties to increase lead time on predictions of riverine flooding risks represented by the rainfall in extreme or long-duration weather systems originated from ungauged areas. The methodology explores the opportunity to enhance rainfall data coverage and simplify forecasting tasks by combining the global reach and high resolution of IMERG V07 satellite precipitation products (SPPs) with the ability of deep learning models to capture complex spatiotemporal relationships in time series data.

In a real-world case study, the method applies a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture patterns in the historical relationship between IMERG rainfall estimates from selected areas of the Atlantic Ocean and stream level variations in three UK catchments (C1, C2, and C3). The model then utilizes near-real-time (NRT) data from the IMERG early run product to make real-time predictions. Lead times are determined by considering three key factors: the latency of the NRT data, the distance between the catchment and the IMERG data collection point, and the forward speed of the weather system carrying rainfall toward the catchment.

The method was applied to predict stream level variations during two extreme rainfall events and results compared to those obtained from a similar LSTM model using local rain gauge data. Through this comparison, across all catchments the proposed methodology demonstrated significantly smaller prediction errors for lead times exceeding 1.5 hours on both events. For example, with NRT IMERG data, 6.5-hour lead time predictions for C1, C2, and C3 had RMSE values of 19 mm, 21 mm, and 26 mm, respectively, for the 2022 event, and 16 mm, 29 mm, and 45 mm for the 2023 event. In contrast, predictions with the same lead time using rain gauge data resulted in RMSE values of 77 mm, 64 mm, and 59 mm for the 2022 event, and 165 mm, 44 mm, and 112 mm for the 2023 event.

More importantly, considering that during the rainfall events water level rose about 600mm in C1, up to 700 mm in C2 and up to 1000mm in C3, the errors with the proposed methodology remained below 10% of the total water level rise in each catchment on predictions with up to 9 hours lead time. While these are excellent results for real-time applications of flooding forecasts, the 4-hour latency of NRT IMERG data limits the method's applicability for predictions with less than 4 hours lead time and for floods triggered by localized or short-duration rainfall events.

How to cite: Girotto, C., Behzadian, K., Piadeh, F., and Zolgharni, M.: Combining Satellite Precipitation Products and Deep Learning to Increase Lead Times in Real-Time Riverine Flood Risk Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20021, 2025.

EGU25-20698 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.8

Advancing Flood Management Strategies: A Review of Agent-Based Models in Flood Risk Assessment 

Kourosh Behzadian, Saeid Najjar-Ghabel, and Atiyeh Ardakanian

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters worldwide, causing significant socio-economic losses, disruption of critical infrastructure, and loss of lives. The increasing frequency and intensity of floods due to climate change and rapid urbanisation have underscored the need for advanced flood management strategies [1]. While traditional flood risk assessment methods primarily focus on deterministic approaches to predict flood extents and impacts, they often overlook the dynamic interplay between human behaviour and flood dynamics [2,3]. This limitation prevents the development of effective flood management strategies that reflect real-world complexities [4]. This review identifies key research gaps, such as the limited exploration of cascading failures in critical infrastructure and the need for multi-agent collaboration in large-scale flood scenarios. It also outlines opportunities for future development, including the use of synthetic population generation and participatory modelling to enhance the realism and applicability of ABMs.

Agent-based models (ABM) have emerged as a transformative tool in addressing these gaps, offering a bottom-up approach to simulating individual and collective behaviours during flood events. By representing individuals, groups, or entities as autonomous agents with distinct decision-making rules, ABMs provide valuable insights into how human behaviors influence, and are influenced by, flood risks and interventions. Recent advancements have enhanced the utility of ABMs, particularly their integration with real-time data, which are sources that enable the dynamic simulation of human mobility and interactions under varying flood conditions. Additionally, the coupling of ABMs with hydrological and flood-forecasting models has created comprehensive frameworks for evaluating proactive and reactive flood management strategies. Despite these advancements, challenges remain in the broader adoption of ABMs. Computational complexity, the need for extensive data to calibrate and validate models, and the difficulty of capturing long-term behavioural adaptations are significant hurdles. Furthermore, there is a growing need for the integration of machine learning and cloud computing methods to improve the scalability, accuracy, and predictive power of ABMs. By providing a detailed evaluation of current methodologies, challenges, and future directions, this study underscores the transformative potential of ABMs in advancing adaptive and resilient flood management strategies. The findings are particularly relevant for policymakers, urban planners, and emergency responders seeking to design targeted, effective interventions that reduce flood impacts and improve community resilience.

References

[1] Ferdowsi, A., Piadeh, F., Behzadian, K., Mousavi, S., Ehteram, M. (2024). Urban Water Infrastructure: A Critical Review on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies. Urban Climate, 58, p.102132.

[2] Girottoa, C., Piadeh, F., Bakhtiari, V., Behzadian, K., Chen, A., Campos, L., Zolgharni, M. (2024). A Critical Review of Digital Technology Innovations for Early Warning of Water-Related Disease Outbreaks Associated with Climatic Hazards, International journal of disaster risk reduction, 100, p.104151.

[3] Anshuka, A., Ogtrop, F., Sanderson, D., Leao, S.Z. (2022). A systematic review of agent-based model for flood risk management and assessment using the ODD protocol. Natural Hazards, 112(3), pp.2739-2771.

[4] Zhuo, L., Han, D. (2020). Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: a compendious literature review. Journal of Hydrology, 585, p.124755.

How to cite: Behzadian, K., Najjar-Ghabel, S., and Ardakanian, A.: Advancing Flood Management Strategies: A Review of Agent-Based Models in Flood Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20698, 2025.

The Jhelum River, which is the major river of the signal, contributes to the Indus River system as one of the notable tributaries and is bestowed with crucial importance in adhering its water for various uses, including irrigation, hydropower supply and domestic purposes. However, it is very vulnerable to serious floods that cause many losses of life and property. As a result, precise flood forecasting in the Jhelum River is essential to facilitate proper disaster response and prevention strategies. Flood forecasting is critical to disaster preparedness, particularly in countries vulnerable to repeated hydrologic disasters. This research aims to improve the flood forecasting technique applicable to the Kupwara district of Jammu and Kashmir, as the area is frequently ravaged by floods, mostly occasioned by its geographical and climatic attributes. We employ hydrometeorological data from January 1975 to December 2023 to investigate the interaction of the factors that determine flood occurrence, and we evaluate the capability of data-based models in providing reliable monthly flood predictions. This study proposes Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and finally, the hybrid model SVM-PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) to predict flood events in the Jhelum River. The results of the hybrid SVM-PSO model show maximum goodness of fit with an R² value of 0.9562, minimum MSE value of 9.2237 and Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency of 0.9483. These outcomes illustrate the model's strengths for flood forecasting for Kupwara; its application to disaster risk reduction is valuable. The study’s findings highlight the possibility of extending the applications of progressive AI tools to reduce the effects of flooding and preserve the areas’ susceptible populations and assets in the Kupwara district.

This research was supported by the Empowerment and Equity Opportunities for Excellence (EEQ) in Science (Dr SS) under SERB, Govt. of India, under grant no. EEQ/2023/000585

How to cite: Hamid, H. and Samantaray, S.: Hybrid SVM-PSO Approach for Flood Prediction in the Jhelum River Basin: A Case Study of Kupwara District, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-608, 2025.

EGU25-750 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Simultaneous Evaluation of Streamflow Data Assimilation for Addressing Precipitation Error Propagation and Hydrological Model Equifinality  

Omid Mohammadiigder, Ricardo Mantilla, and Chandra Rajulapati

Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), the main input driving hydrological model simulations, are known to have different levels of uncertainty across spatial and temporal scales. These uncertainties propagate through model simulations and thus lead to erroneous estimations of hydrological variables and extreme events. The role of equifinality—where different model structures or parameter sets produce similarly acceptable hydrological results—needs further research in the context of precipitation error propagation. Additionally, while data assimilation (DA) is a well-established method to improve model predictive performance by addressing various sources of uncertainty, its application to precipitation error propagation under the influence of model equifinality has received limited attention. This study investigates these gaps by leveraging the Raven hydrological modelling framework in combination with the dynamically dimensioned search (DDS) algorithm to calibrate streamflow at the outlets of multiple catchments across Southern Manitoba. Hence, different sets of optimized parameters are identified for each catchment, reflecting equifinality in the model structure and calibration. Subsequently, the calibrated model is driven by precipitation estimates from various satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products to examine the propagation of precipitation errors through hydrological simulations. Finally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of streamflow data assimilation in correcting precipitation-induced errors in streamflow and improving the accuracy and robustness of the hydrological model. By systematically addressing the interplay between precipitation uncertainty, model equifinality, and data assimilation, this work provides novel insights into improving hydrological simulations.

How to cite: Mohammadiigder, O., Mantilla, R., and Rajulapati, C.: Simultaneous Evaluation of Streamflow Data Assimilation for Addressing Precipitation Error Propagation and Hydrological Model Equifinality , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-750, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-750, 2025.

EGU25-883 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Evaluation of ERA5-Land Dataset for Modeling Rivers Discharge using Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis 

Abdelrahman Habash, Onur Yuzugullu, and Emre Alp

Modeling rivers discharge is an essential tool for the sustainable management of freshwater systems, as it facilitates more efficient allocation and distribution strategies of water resources through accurate forecasting. Moreover, with the proper datasets and features engineering, it can also provide an accurate backcasting, thereby enhancing the understanding of the long-term effects of climate change on natural water bodies and providing valuable insights into the historical behavior of freshwater systems. With these objectives in mind, this study evaluates the capability of selected parameters of the ERA5-Land dataset in modeling rivers discharge using machine learning techniques. ERA5-Land is a widely acknowledged global reanalysis climate dataset known for its high temporal and spatial resolution, and made available by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The research considers six diverse gauging stations across Switzerland, representing a variety of watershed characteristics and catchment sizes.

Two different data extraction schemes were employed through Google Earth Engine to process the ERA5-Land data: Station-based Climate Data (SCD) scheme, which extracts the climate data directly from the location of the station, and Catchment-based Climate Data (CCD) scheme, which aggregates the climate data over the entire catchment area of each station. Additionally, two feature engineering approaches were investigated. The (Raw features) approach, which used only the base climate parameters as model features, while the (Windowed features) approach utilized sliding windows with various temporal intervals for each parameter, and dynamically added the ones that have relative high Gini importance to the model features. Moreover, six machine learning methods were analyzed: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Hybrid Convolutional Neural Network-LSTM (CNN-LSTM), Random Forests (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Making a total of 24 models for each station.

The models were evaluated on their ability to capture the monthly average discharge (m3/s) at each gauging station. Promising results were achieved, with testing R2 values ranging from at least 0.80 to as high as 0.92, and MAPE values of 10-17%, demonstrating the strong predictive potential of the ERA5-Land dataset for modeling rivers discharge.

Key findings include the superior performance of the (CCD) over the (SCD) in terms of ERA5-Land climate data extraction scheme. Additionally, (Windowed features) approach improved the model’s accuracy in general, though the degree of improvement varied across stations. Among the tested machine learning methods, (CNN-LSTM) was the most consistent and robust method, performing the best mostly, and providing a very close performance to the best model in cases where it was not. Nevertheless, (ANN), (LSTM), and (XGBoost) methods are also worth considering, as they achieved the best performance in some stations, depending on the discharge patterns.

This study underscores the applicability of the ERA5-Land dataset for rivers discharge modeling and offers insights into the climate data processing, feature engineering strategies, and machine learning techniques for hydrological modeling. These findings contribute to advancing predictive hydrology and inform future applications in water resource management and climate impact assessment.

 

 

 

 

 

*For Figures/Tables with good quality: (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1j8iJR7MsHnGkyD4F5y1hFZskTdwvRJGn)

How to cite: Habash, A., Yuzugullu, O., and Alp, E.: Evaluation of ERA5-Land Dataset for Modeling Rivers Discharge using Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-883, 2025.

EGU25-921 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

A Medium-Range Ensemble Flood Forecasting System for India. 

Priyam Deka and Manabendra Saharia

We propose a robust framework for flood forecasting that integrates advanced hydrological modeling with high-performance computing to deliver accurate and timely predictions. At its core, the India Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) leverages multiple Land Surface Models (LSMs) and routing models to enhance flood prediction capabilities. The framework utilizes the Noah-MP LSM for simulating land surface processes, with runoff routed using mizuRoute, a vector-based hydrodynamic model, to estimate critical flood metrics. Calibration is optimized through an HPC-enabled scheme, ensuring precise model tuning. The system ingests meteorological forecasts from the National Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), ISRO, and GEFS, offering lead times of 1 to 10 days. Operating at a spatial resolution of 12 meters, it delivers nationwide flood forecasts within 15 minutes, with outputs available at daily and sub-daily temporal resolutions. The flood forecast is improved with an ML based hydrological post-processor to enhance the forecast information. A case study focusing on the flood-prone Brahmaputra basin demonstrates the system's effectiveness in accurately predicting flood events, underscoring its potential as a valuable operational tool for flood preparedness and risk mitigation. 

How to cite: Deka, P. and Saharia, M.: A Medium-Range Ensemble Flood Forecasting System for India., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-921, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-921, 2025.

Groundwater depletion in the Bist-Doab region of the Punjab State of India is a significant threat to sustainable agricultural practices, underscoring the need for effective management strategies. Modelling groundwater heads is essential for understanding groundwater flow dynamics, trends, and their interaction with surface water. It helps assess the aquifer's health, prevent over-extraction and contamination, and predict ambient groundwater responses to extreme events such as droughts or floods. Inaccurate groundwater models, which overestimate or underestimate groundwater levels and fail to capture temporal fluctuations, hinder proper water management. These errors lead to suboptimal decisions regarding water allocation and resource sustainability and ultimately impact crop yields and water availability.

This study aims to integrate physically-based models, such as those developed by MODFLOW, with machine-learning algorithms to improve prediction accuracy and support more informed decision-making. MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater flow under both steady-state and transient conditions, utilizing field hydrogeological data from existing literature. Machine learning (ML) models, including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), were trained and tested on historical groundwater levels and meteorological data to enhance prediction accuracy.

The methodology employs data-driven models (DDMs) as error-correcting tools for the physically-based models. Historical residuals, calculated as the difference between observed and simulated groundwater heads, were used as inputs alongside features such as well location coordinates, simulated groundwater heads, and time of measurements. ML techniques such as SVR, RF and ANN were used to train the DDMs, which learn systematic errors in the physically-based model by analysing these historical residuals. Outputs include predicted systematic errors and updated groundwater heads, where corrections are applied to the initial simulated values. The effectiveness of the DDMs relies on the structure and patterns of the residuals in the physically-based model, with strong correlations between the groundwater heads, leading to better error correction and improved predictive accuracy.

Results show that integrating MODFLOW with ML, significantly reduces model error compared to traditional simulation approaches. The combined model effectively captures both seasonal fluctuations and long-term trends in groundwater levels, leading to more accurate predictions. The developed framework provides a reliable tool for improving groundwater resource management and optimizing water allocation strategies, ultimately supporting the sustainable management of groundwater in agriculturally stressed regions like Bist-Doab.

How to cite: Kantode, A., Prashanth, T., and Ganguly, S.: Development of a precise regional-scale groundwater model by coupling MODFLOW & Machine Learning algorithms: A case study in Bist-Doab region, Punjab, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1365, 2025.

EGU25-1452 | Posters on site | HS4.10

A Hybrid CNN-LSTM Approach for Precipitation Forecasting under Climate Change Scenarios 

Tiantian Tang and Guan Gui

Accurate precipitation forecasting is vital for water resource management and climate change mitigation. This study proposes a hybrid approach combining Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to improve precipitation predictions using CMIP6 projections. The model integrates spatial features extracted by CNN from multi-modal data sources, while LSTM captures the temporal dependencies of precipitation and climate variables. By leveraging CMIP6's high-resolution outputs and combining them with real-time observational data, the model learns complex spatial-temporal patterns to enhance forecast accuracy. Performance is evaluated using metrics like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and correlation coefficients, showing substantial improvements over traditional methods. This approach provides an effective framework for multi-source data integration, offering strong potential for climate adaptation and water resource management.

How to cite: Tang, T. and Gui, G.: A Hybrid CNN-LSTM Approach for Precipitation Forecasting under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1452, 2025.

EGU25-2685 | Posters on site | HS4.10

Precipitation Forecasting Using Hybrid Data-Driven Modeling 

Sanaz Moghim and Kianoush Kadkhodaei

Precipitation is one of the main hydrometeorological variables since it affects water resources, environment, and natural hazards like flood and drought. Due to the complexity and uncertainty of the precipitation, valid and reliable precipitation forecasting remains a challenge. This study aims to find the key features that are important in developing a valid model for rainfall forecasting. Multiple feature selection algorithms including ICAP, as an information theoretical-based algorithm, and fisher-score, as a similarity-based algorithm, are used to find principal features. In addition, the trend and cycle parts of the rainfall that are decomposed by the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter are simulated by the time series models and the machine learning algorithm, respectively. The hybrid model combining machine learning models (KNN, Random Forest) and time series models (AR, MA, ARIMA) is used to forecast rainfall. To find a proper set of features for precipitation forecasting model, different categories including, hydrological variables from NOAA and ECMWF, cloud properties from ISCCP, and large-scale atmospheric circulation from NOAA, are used to represent precipitation formation in different seasons. Indeed, different mechanisms of precipitation formation that varies in different seasons can be determined by a specific set of features. For instance, findings reveal that longwave radiation can be considered as a significant feature in fall season. Results show that although the key features vary in different periods due to different processes of precipitation formation in each season, large-scale circulation like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the atmospheric pattern of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) with cloud features are important in all seasons for the precipitation forecasting model. In addition, results indicate that the developed hybrid model for representing the trend (linear) and cycle (nonlinear) part of the rainfall achieves a high and satisfactory level of accuracy (R2 = 0.8). The high accuracy of the model highlights the role of the key features in precipitation forecasting and importance of linear and nonlinear parts of the rainfall that need to be considered and modeled properly. The product of precipitation forecasting can be used as the input and driver of other models like hydrologic and ecosystem models. In addition, the developed model can be efficiently used in flood warning system to reduce damage and losses. 

How to cite: Moghim, S. and Kadkhodaei, K.: Precipitation Forecasting Using Hybrid Data-Driven Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2685, 2025.

EGU25-3263 | Orals | HS4.10

Hybrid Hydrological Modeling in the Forni Basin: Combining SWAT-GL and Machine Learning Techniques 

Anna Malago', Timo Schaffhauser, Fayçal Bouraoui, Paolo Lazzarini, Andrea Marziali, Alberto Ravasi, and Valerio Bertelli

Accurate streamflow predictions in glacial basins are critical for effective water resource management and flood risk mitigation, especially under changing climatic conditions. This study presents a hybrid modeling framework that integrates the SWAT-GL model, an extension of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) designed to include glacial hydrological processes, with advanced machine learning techniques (Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, and Multilayer Perceptron).

SWAT-GL was selected for its proven ability to simulate glacial hydrological processes at a daily scale. However, its application at an hourly scale is limited due to the reliance on the Green-Ampt infiltration method, which is less suitable for representing the unique soil characteristics typically observed in glacier-fed basins. To overcome this limitation, machine learning models were employed to refine the daily SWAT-GL outputs into hourly predictions. An ensemble model was developed to enhance accuracy, combining the complementary strengths of the individual machine learning approaches.

The model was calibrated using data from 2021 to 2023, with a one-year warmup period (2020), and validated with observed data from January 2024 to September 2024. Meteorological forecasts from ECMWF-IFS and MOLOCH models were incorporated, providing hourly data on precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed. This approach enabled day-ahead operational forecasting, aligning model outputs with real-time management needs.

The ensemble model showed strong performance during training and testing, highlighting its robustness in refining daily SWAT-GL outputs into accurate hourly predictions.

The hybrid framework was applied to the Forni Basin, a glacier-fed system in the Italian Alps characterized by high variability in meltwater contributions and limited hydrological data. By addressing key challenges such as input uncertainties, limitations of process-based modeling at sub-daily scales, and scaling from daily to hourly forecasts, the model offers a robust tool for predicting streamflow in data-scarce, glacierized regions. This study highlights the potential of hybrid approaches to improve hydrological forecasting accuracy and scalability, contributing to the sustainable management of water resources in sensitive alpine environments.

How to cite: Malago', A., Schaffhauser, T., Bouraoui, F., Lazzarini, P., Marziali, A., Ravasi, A., and Bertelli, V.: Hybrid Hydrological Modeling in the Forni Basin: Combining SWAT-GL and Machine Learning Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3263, 2025.

This study explores the potential of a hybrid streamflow model that addresses the interpretability limitations commonly associated with the ‘black-box’ nature of machine learning models. The hybrid model simulates the rainfall-runoff process through its conceptual structure, integrating a deep-learning neural network to estimate the associated parameters. Using the Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset, we evaluated the model’s performance across 671 catchments in the United States, and compared it with the widely used Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. In gauged basins, where the three models were directly trained using runoff observations, the LSTM showed superior performance, achieving a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.79. In comparison, the HBV model and the hybrid model attained median KGE values of 0.66 and 0.68, respectively. However, when the same catchments were treated as ungauged and runoff was predicted using regionalization approaches, the performance of all three models declined: the LSTM experienced a 17% reduction in KGE (0.79 → 0.66), while the hybrid and HBV models showed reductions of 13% (0.68 → 0.59) and 11% (0.66 → 0.59), respectively. The largest performance degradation observed in the LSTM underscores the advantage of the physical constraints inherent in the HBV and hybrid models, which help mitigate potential information loss. However, the hybrid model exhibited a ‘lower boundary problem,’ where it failed to generate hydrographs below a certain threshold. Although the hybrid model did not surpass the regionalized LSTM in performance, this study emphasizes the interpretability benefits offered by its conceptual structure. Furthermore, it highlights the hybrid model’s potential as an effective regionalization approach, combining the learnability of machine learning with the physical consistency of conceptual models.

 

Acknowledgements: this work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00416443).

How to cite: Lee, S. C. and Kim, D.: Performance evaluation of coupled conceptual and machine-learning frameworks for streamflow prediction in ungauged basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3948, 2025.

EGU25-4743 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Sediment dynamics under historical and future climate projection scenarios in the Tapi River basin, India 

Vivek Kumar Bind, Hiren Solanki, Vikrant Jain, and Vimal Mishra

Suspended Sediment Load (SSL) plays a crucial role in water resources management, agriculture, infrastructure development, river morphology, and ecological balance. SSL also affects the estuary and marine ecosystem as sediment is a habitat for invertebrates. Furthermore, excessive SSL poses significant challenges upstream of dams by reducing their water storage capacity. A warming climate is expected to influence the streamflow and, subsequently, the SSL of Indian river basins. While extensive research has been conducted to estimate streamflow under historical and future climate projection scenarios, further studies addressing streamflow and SSL dynamics need to be investigated. Recently, Physics Informed Machine Learning (PIML) has shown better performance over individual Physics-based hydrological (PBH) and Machine Learning (ML) models. We employed PBH, ML, and PIML models to predict streamflow and SSL in the Tapi River basin. Our study focused on a ~56,000 km² area to evaluate the impact of SSL on the Ukai dam, the largest dam located approximately 600 km downstream from the river's origin. The Ukai dam features an area of ~612 million m² and a total storage capacity of ~7,414 million m³. We used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as PBH, Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) as ML, and SWAT-informed LSTM as the PIML model. Our results show that the PIML model performs best for the historical streamflow and SSL simulation. We then used the generated PIML model to predict streamflow and SSL under future climate scenarios for SSP126 and SSP585. Bias-corrected climate data for future scenarios were derived from the four General Circulation Models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM5-0, and NorESM2-MM) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). These datasets provided projections for precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and wind speed. The models were applied to simulate historical (1951–2014) and future (2015–2100) streamflow and SSL under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. Our analysis indicates that SSL and streamflow will increase under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. This increase in SSL will reduce the water storage capacity of the Ukai dam to 54% and 56% under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Such reductions in dam capacity and increased streamflow by 39% and 51% for SSP126 and SSP585, respectively, will pose significant challenges in managing extreme flood events in the future. Our findings hold critical implications for water resource management, flood risk mitigation, and the sustainability of river ecosystems.

How to cite: Bind, V. K., Solanki, H., Jain, V., and Mishra, V.: Sediment dynamics under historical and future climate projection scenarios in the Tapi River basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4743, 2025.

EGU25-5612 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Differentiable Parameter Learning Framework for Calibration of Hydrological Model Parameters 

Wei Yang Hong, Shao Wei Ho, and Wen Ping Tsai

Hydrological models, such as rainfall-runoff and groundwater models, require the accurate calibration of multiple unobserved parameters to function effectively. While various methods, including genetic and evolutionary algorithms, have been developed for this purpose, traditional calibration techniques often fall short. They tend to focus on individual locations, leading to suboptimal, local solutions and results in discontinuous parameter estimates, even in geographically similar adjacent regions. To address these challenges, we propose a differentiable Parameter Learning (dPL) framework that harnesses the power of deep learning for the comprehensive calibration of hydrological model parameters across both temporal and spatial domains. This innovative approach moves beyond the constraints of traditional methods by integrating the extensive learning capabilities of deep learning to achieve more consistent and accurate parameter estimation. In this study, we apply the dPL framework to the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model, a conceptual lumped model that represents an entire watershed as a system comprising a soil layer, an upper tank, and a lower tank. The study area encompasses the upstream regions of five government-managed rivers of Taiwan, covering six distinct watersheds, each with unique geographical characteristics. The results demonstrate that the dPL framework not only outperforms traditional calibration methods but also enhances physical coherence and generalizability. These findings highlight the potential of the dPL framework as a robust tool for hydrological model calibration.

Keyword:differentiable Parameter Learning Framework,HBV Rainfall-Runoff Model,Surrogate Model,Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

How to cite: Hong, W. Y., Ho, S. W., and Tsai, W. P.: Differentiable Parameter Learning Framework for Calibration of Hydrological Model Parameters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5612, 2025.

Hydrological forecasting is essential across multiple sectors, including hydroelectric power generation, flood prediction and mitigation, and water resource management. In this field of research, Machine Learning (ML) models have shown promising results and are increasingly used to replace traditional hydrological models.

This work presents a novel framework for forecasting 14-day inflow volumes to a hydropower reservoir using deep-learning models and atmospheric reforecasts in a Canadian catchment. The forecasting framework investigates whether Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models can directly forecast inflow volumes without relying on intermediate daily streamflow predictions, and whether integrating meteorological reforecast data during training can enhance model performance and forecast quality.

Three LSTM models were trained using various combinations of meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), including ERA5 reanalysis data and probabilistic reforecast datasets. The target hydrological forecast is the 14-day cumulative inflow volume to the reservoir. The first model is trained exclusively with ERA5 data, the second using a combination of ERA5 data and reforecasts, and the third combining the training datasets of the first two models. The models are then used to generate hydrological forecasts using ECMWF ensemble meteorological forecasts and assessed with quantitative metrics such as the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Average Bin Distance to Uniformity (ABDU).

Results indicate that the three LSTM models can directly predict 14-day cumulative inflow volumes with reasonable accuracy and reliability, yielding strong performance metrics. However, no single model consistently outperforms the others. The model trained solely on reanalysis data exhibits greater variability in its predictions, resulting in lower accuracy but higher reliability. Results also vary seasonally. These findings suggest that incorporating meteorological reforecast data during training offers valuable potential for improving inflow volume forecasts within specific seasons and depends on the desired trade-off between accuracy and reliability.

Overall, it can be stated that LSTM models are a promising alternative to current operational models for inflow volume forecasting, although further research is necessary to understand how to fully exploit their potential and ensure their applicability and transferability into an operational context.

How to cite: Soucy, L., Arsenault, R., and Martel, J.-L.: Assessing the value of meteorological reforecast data to predict inflow volumes over a Canadian snow-dominated catchment using a deep learning model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7194, 2025.

EGU25-7726 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Development of a Long Term Forecasting Model for Dam Inflow in South Korea Using the LTSF Algorithm 

Jiyeon Park, Seoyoung Kim, Gayoung Lee, Juyoung Shin, and Sangbeom Jang

For long-term time series forecasting of hydro-meteorological variables, physical models and artificial intelligence (AI)-based models have been used. Long-term forecast using physical models may have a limited predictive performance due to assumptions and conditions used in the physical model. Although AI-based models for long-term forecast of hydro-meteorological variables have a restricted capacity to explain phenomena, they have practical strengths such as high precision and short computation time. Zeng et al. (2022) proposed Long-Term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) models and showed that they outperformed transformer-based AI models for long-term forecast In this study, a long-term forecasting model was developed using the LTSF model applied to dam inflow data and assess the feasibility of LTSF in the long-term forecast of inflow data. For comparison, The Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm was employed. The results show that the LTSF showed a comparable performance of long-term forecast to the LSTM although the structures of LTSF models are much simpler than LSTM. The LSTF models can be considered as a good alternative of LSTM when the forecast task need prompt computation.

Zeng, A., Chen, M., Zhang, L., & Xu, Q. (2022). Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting? The Chinese University of Hong Kong and International Digital Economy Academy (IDEA).

How to cite: Park, J., Kim, S., Lee, G., Shin, J., and Jang, S.: Development of a Long Term Forecasting Model for Dam Inflow in South Korea Using the LTSF Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7726, 2025.

Process-based land surface models (LSMs) are essential tools for global water cycle and runoff assessments. However, when coupled with hydrodynamic models, their streamflow simulations often exhibit considerable uncertainties in uncalibrated settings, making them less effective for local hydrology applications. Calibrating LSMs using observed streamflow data across large basins and regions is computationally expensive and can even impair the performance of other variables. On the other hand, deep learning models, particularly Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have shown promise in streamflow simulations, but often struggle to reproduce other water cycle variables reliably. In this study, we propose a hybrid modeling framework that combines process-based models with deep learning to enhance daily streamflow simulations without requiring basin-specific calibration. Applied at a national scale, the framework integrates a multi-model hydrologic ensemble from the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) with a novel two-stage post-processor. This post-processor uses a residual error prediction LSTM alongside an auto-regressive meta-learning LSTM. Trained on 220 catchments across India, the framework significantly improves streamflow predictions, raising the Kling-Gupta Efficiency in 208 catchments, with the national median improving from 0.18 (uncalibrated) to 0.60. Additionally, peak flow timing error and peak mean absolute percentage error were reduced by 25% in 135 catchments. This approach demonstrates the potential to integrate LSMs with deep learning to provide more accurate and locally relevant streamflow predictions.

How to cite: Magotra, B. and Saharia, M.: Hybrid Integration of Land Surface Models and Deep Learning for Enhanced Streamflow Prediction Across India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7887, 2025.

EGU25-8061 | Posters on site | HS4.10

Streamflow Variability and Predictive Modeling in the Carpathian Basin: Assessing the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms 

Igor Leščešen, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek, and Zbyňek Bajtek

The Carpathian Basin, is a climatically sensitive region influenced by Atlantic, continental and Mediterranean climates. Understanding the river dynamics in this region is crucial for sustainable water management given the diverse climatic and hydrological conditions. Despite extensive research, few studies have thoroughly compared the performance of advanced machine learning models for predicting river discharge in this region.

In this study we show that Random Forest (RF), LightGBM (LGBM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) and XGBoost can improve streamflow prediction by utilizing their ability to capture nonlinear and temporal relationships in hydrological data. Using daily discharge data for 1961-2020 period from Danube, Sava, Tisa and Drava Rivers, we tested these models at six stations and analyzed their effectiveness using metrics such as RMSE, MAE and R². The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test confirmed the stationarity across all stations and thus confirmed the robustness of our prediction framework.

The RF model performed consistently better than the other models, achieving the lowest RMSE (e.g. 31.739 m³/s at Bezdan station and 19.582 m³/s in Donji Miholjac station) and the highest R² values (e.g. 0.999 at Szolnok and Bezdan station). In contrast, the SVR showed the weakest performance with significantly higher RMSE values and lower R² values at all stations. XGBoost and LGBM also performed strongly, but fell slightly short of the prediction accuracy of RF. These results emphasize the robustness of RF in capturing complex, nonlinear hydrological dynamics and its resistance to overfitting.

Our results suggest that Random Forest is the most reliable model for predicting discharge in the Carpathian Basin, providing high accuracy and robustness for different rivers. These results have significant implications for improving predictive hydrological models that enable more effective water resource management and adaptive strategies in climatically sensitive regions.

How to cite: Leščešen, I., Pekárová, P., Miklánek, P., and Bajtek, Z.: Streamflow Variability and Predictive Modeling in the Carpathian Basin: Assessing the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8061, 2025.

EGU25-8202 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Deep Learning-Based Urban Pluvial Flood Modeling using High-resolution Physical Information 

Hyuna Woo, Bomi Kim, Hyeonjin Choi, Minyoung Kim, and Seong Jin Noh

As climate change intensifies hydrologic extremes, the need for near real-time urban flood prediction becomes critical. Pluvial flooding occurs when intense rainfall overwhelms urban drainage systems, involving complex hydrodynamic interactions between surface runoff and subsurface sewer flow—known as dual drainage. Capturing the spatiotemporal evolution of these processes requires detailed representations of flow patterns, inundation propagation, and runoff accumulation. However, physics-based hydrodynamic models, while effective at resolving the fine-scale dynamics of flood events, face significant computational limitations, particularly for large urban areas or high-resolution domains. To address this challenge, we propose a deep learning-based urban flood prediction model that integrates surface runoff dynamics with sewer network interactions. The model is developed using training data generated from physics-based 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulations that capture interactions between 2D surface flow and 1D sewer network flow. The Oncheoncheon River catchment in Busan, South Korea—a region frequently impacted by urban flooding—serves as the study area. Various synthetic rainfall scenarios are used to train the model, ensuring its ability to generalize across different extreme rainfall events. Model validation against historical flood events shows that the deep learning model accurately predicts flood evolution patterns while significantly reducing computational time compared to traditional hydrodynamic models. This study demonstrates the potential of deep learning-based approaches to enhance real-time urban flood prediction and provides valuable insights for developing efficient, data-driven disaster management strategies.

How to cite: Woo, H., Kim, B., Choi, H., Kim, M., and Noh, S. J.: Deep Learning-Based Urban Pluvial Flood Modeling using High-resolution Physical Information, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8202, 2025.

EGU25-8432 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Coupling high resolution meteorological models with neural networks for flash flood forecasting: implementation on a Southern France basin 

Sarah Gautier, Guillaume Artigue, Yves Tramblay, and Anne Johannet

Flash floods are an important hazard that particularly affects the Mediterranean region. Flood forecasting using simulation tools adapted to this context is therefore a crucial issue. In exposed regions, the difficulty of measuring and forecasting the spatial variability and intensity of rainfall, as well as the difficulty of identifying processes at the necessary time and space scales, has often led to the use of highly conceptual - or even statistical - models that make few assumptions about hydrological processes. Among these, neural networks have proven their relevance for flash flood forecasting. However, without hydrometeorological coupling, flow forecasting is often limited to the response time of the basin, i.e. a few hours in general. The purpose is to find a way of increasing this lead time, which is often too short for crisis management.

A flood forecasting model for the Gardon de Mialet basin (Southern France) is being developed as part of the HydIA joint laboratory funded by the ANR (French National Research Agency) and the Synapse company, with the aim of developing a range of hydrometeorological forecasting services based on artificial intelligence approaches. The use of gridded observed data, like in a meteorological model, has enabled the neural network model implemented (Multilayer Perceptron) to reduce its sensitivity to support change.

In the absence of rainfall forecasts, performance decreases with the lead time. With perfect forecasts (observed data used as future data), performance remains high for lead times up to 24h. The model has been coupled with two high resolution weather models, AROME and ARPEGE (2.5km and 10km respectively), implemented by Météo-France for short-range numerical weather prediction. The use of forecasts from these meteorological models for the 49 events in the database enables us to identify the error generated by the hydrological model and that generated by the meteorological model, in comparison with perfect forecasts. Analysis of these errors opens operational perspectives for crisis management. It also makes it possible to improve model training based on perfectible forecast data, and to correct rainfall forecasting biases to achieve higher performance.

How to cite: Gautier, S., Artigue, G., Tramblay, Y., and Johannet, A.: Coupling high resolution meteorological models with neural networks for flash flood forecasting: implementation on a Southern France basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8432, 2025.

EGU25-9650 | Posters on site | HS4.10

Global-Scale Evaluation of Drivers Influencing Seasonal Forecast Skills 

Jude Lubega Musuuza, Yiheng Du, Louise Crochemore, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

The potential skill of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system is well recognized to depend on the initial states, which among other things, can be improved through data assimilation and the meteorological forcing data used to drive the hydrological model. The operational skill of such a system will depend on the capacity of the model initialization and of the forcing data to capture key features in the catchment. For instance, studies at regional or continental scales have identified the baseflow index and the snowpack to be drivers of forecast skill in regions with high groundwater recharge and in high-latitude catchments, respectively. This study presents a seasonal forecasting system at a global scale using the global variant of the model HYPE and forced with the ECMWF SEAS5 meteorological data, with a focus on evaluating the forecast skill for key hydrological variables, e.g. discharge and snow water equivalent, and investigating the dependence of forecast skill on quantifiable physiographic and other catchment characteristics across the globe. Machine learning (ML) techniques are employed to identify the leading influencing factors linking forecast skills to catchment characteristics. Our goal is to demonstrate how forecast skill can be attributed to the properties of the catchments and how these links vary across the global hydrological gradient.

How to cite: Musuuza, J. L., Du, Y., Crochemore, L., and Pechlivanidis, I.: Global-Scale Evaluation of Drivers Influencing Seasonal Forecast Skills, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9650, 2025.

EGU25-10567 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

AI-based seasonal streamflow forecasts across Europe’s hydro-climatic gradient 

Claudia Bertini, Yiheng Du, Schalk Jan van Andel, and Ilias Pechlivanidis

Despite the advances in hydro-meteorological forecasting systems, challenges to accurately forecast streamflow at seasonal time horizons still remain, especially when models are applied across a strong hydro-climatic gradient. In this work, we explore the potential of AI-based approaches combined with the output of process-based hydrological models and meteorological forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction models to enhance seasonal streamflow forecasts, with lead-times up to 30 weeks. We employ the multi-time scale Long Short-Term Memory (MTS-LSTM) model trained with a combination of reanalysis data from the process-based pan-European E-HYPE hydrological model, in-situ observations from GRDC, and bias-adjusted seasonal meteorological forecasts from the ECMWF SEAS5 prediction system. The MTS-LSTM is developed at the pan-European scale, using more than 500 catchments over Europe, which lie in 11 different clusters according to their hydrological regime. We then compare the AI-based forecast performance against streamflow climatology and the E-HYPE streamflow forecasts. Our results show that the streamflow forecasts based on MTS-LSTM outperform the E-HYPE ones in catchments characterised by highly variable and flashy hydrological response and snow-dominated catchments with high seasonality. However, the MTS-LSTM underperform compared to E-HYPE results in catchments with highly variable streamflow regimes and long recessions. These preliminary findings highlight the potential of AI approaches to enhance streamflow predictability at seasonal lead-times across Europe’s strong hydro-climatic gradient, having both scientific and operational added value.

How to cite: Bertini, C., Du, Y., van Andel, S. J., and Pechlivanidis, I.: AI-based seasonal streamflow forecasts across Europe’s hydro-climatic gradient, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10567, 2025.

EGU25-10870 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

Utilizing Physics-Based Predictions as Inputs to LSTM Models for Robust Data-Driven Discharge Simulations of Gauged Catchments Across Denmark 

Lucas Dalgaard Jensen, Grith Martinsen, Henrik Madsen, Phillip Aarestrup, and Raphael Payet-Burin

Hydrological modeling provides a quantitative foundation for effective water resource management. Simulating discharge from meteorological forecasts is essential for flood prediction and risk assessment.

Traditional hydrological models, such as the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model, leverage explicit equations to represent well-known catchment characteristics and provide process-based discharge forecasts. However, these models often struggle to capture unknown or poorly understood spatio-temporal dependencies and nonlinear dynamics.

In contrast, machine learning approaches, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, are able to learn complex patterns without requiring pre-defined relationships. However, these networks introduce variabilities into hydrological model simulations, which in turn complicates the development of well-supported arguments based on their findings.

A promising solution is a hybrid model in which the physical model's output serves as dynamic input to the LSTM. This approach preserves the strengths of physics-based models in representing well-understood hydrological processes while allowing the LSTM to capture implicit dependencies.

This study investigated the application of hybrid hydrological modeling for simulating discharge in Danish catchments by combining simulated discharge from the Danish HYPE model (DK-HYPE) with an LSTM model. The analysis encompassed 570 catchments, characterized by static attributes and dynamic variables. Dynamic variables were derived from a high-resolution CAMELS dataset (DK-CAMELS) with a spatial resolution of 1x1 km, from Danish weather stations covering the time period from 2001 to 2022.

Fifteen LSTM models were trained under various configurations: different sequence lengths (30, 90, and 365 days), inclusion of static attributes, and utilization of DK-HYPE outputs. Model training used two loss functions—Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE)—while performance was evaluated using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), Flow Balance (FBAL), and Critical Success Index (CSI).

Incorporating static attributes enhanced model accuracy, while longer sequence lengths captured hydrological dependencies. Across all configurations, the LSTM models outperformed DK-HYPE. The best-performing hybrid model achieved a KGE of 0.7 and a CSI of 0.36, a significant improvement over DK-HYPE's baseline values of 0.01 for KGE and 0.18 for CSI. Similarly, the standalone LSTM model, which excluded DK-HYPE outputs during training, achieved a KGE of 0.71 and a CSI of 0.35.

While the hybrid model did not demonstrate a clear advantage over the pure LSTM model with longer sequence lengths, it outperformed the pure LSTM model with shorter sequence lengths. Specifically, comparing models using sequence length of 30 days, the hybrid model achieved a KGE of 0.65 and a CSI of 0.36, compared to the pure LSTM model's KGE of 0.59 and CSI of 0.31, which is most likely because it utilized information from DK-HYPE.

This project is a step towards combining physics-based models with data-driven models for the national flood warning system. Further work should focus on fine-tuning the hybrid models and integrate them into an ensemble towards building robust systems for flood forecasting.

How to cite: Jensen, L. D., Martinsen, G., Madsen, H., Aarestrup, P., and Payet-Burin, R.: Utilizing Physics-Based Predictions as Inputs to LSTM Models for Robust Data-Driven Discharge Simulations of Gauged Catchments Across Denmark, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10870, 2025.

This study developed an ML (machine learning) model that predicts the vegetation distribution of the following year from the current year's conditions by applying the ML model in multiple stages. The target rivers examined in this study were five Japanese large rivers, i.e., Kinugawa, Edogawa, Yahagigawa, Shonaigawa, and Ibogawa. The multi-stage ML model's explanatory and target variables were created for each river segment using DEMs (Digital Elevation Models) and river environment base maps. The multi-stage ML model consisted of three ML stages to predict the vegetation distribution of the following year from the current river vegetation distribution and topographical information. The advantage of the multi-stage ML model was that a third-stage vegetation distribution prediction model could be constructed according to the difficulty of prediction using a second-stage classification result. XGB (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) was used as the machine learning model. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was used for factor analysis. F1 score with five-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the model's accuracy. The result of the multi-stage ML model for the five target rivers showed that the F1 score was 0.8 or higher for all rivers except the Kinugawa River. The multi-stage ML model had an accuracy of 10% higher F1 score than a conventional single ML model. The vegetation distribution probability map indicated that the prediction had a high general accuracy but dropped near the boundary between the river's low water channel and the floodplain. SHAP analysis revealed the three prominent factors for vegetation existence: (i) the relative height near the levee and in the center of the floodplain, (ii) the distance from the river water's edge near the low water channel, and (iii) the vegetation existence history at the boundary between the low water channel and the floodplain. These results suggest that combining the prediction map with factor analysis could identify the factors that significantly influence where vegetation recruits in a river course.

How to cite: Miyamoto, H. and Maeda, N.: A multi-stage machine learning application for predicting vegetation distribution and its factors in river channels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11162, 2025.

EGU25-11474 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Inflow volume forecasting using regional deep learning models trained on operational meteorological ensemble forecasts in Canada 

Dylane Martel, Jean-Luc Martel, and Richard Arsenault

Hydropower reservoirs typically require inflow forecasts to allow water resources managers to optimize drawdown rates and improve infrastructure efficiency. Usually, operators use physically-based or conceptual hydrological models to forecast streamflow for a desired lead-time, and then evaluate the total inflows for the period of interest. Recently, deep-learning models have been shown to provide better streamflow forecasts than classical hydrological models in certain cases. They have also shown better performance when trained on a multitude of donor catchments to increase the number of available data for training.

This work presents a novel method to provide inflow forecasts volumes directly, i.e. without first generating day-to-day streamflow, by using a deep-learning model trained on ensemble meteorological forecasts and observed inflow volumes for given lead-times. Furthermore, the model makes use of large-scale datasets during its training, by including data from 200 catchments in Canada. The model is then applied to a hydropower system reservoir to estimate 14-day inflow volume forecasts. The model shows promising results in terms of accuracy and reliability, and it is demonstrated that the addition of extra donor catchments during training helps increase the forecast performance. Furthermore, training the model using forecasted meteorological data as the inputs helps further increase model performance. This work demonstrates the potential residing in training regional models using meteorological forecasts for ensemble inflow volumes forecasts.

How to cite: Martel, D., Martel, J.-L., and Arsenault, R.: Inflow volume forecasting using regional deep learning models trained on operational meteorological ensemble forecasts in Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11474, 2025.

EGU25-11925 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

A new era of hybrid hydrological forecasting at ECMWF  

Gwyneth Matthews, Calum Baugh, Matthew Chantry, Cinzia Mazzetti, Hamidreza Mosaffa, Ewan Pinnington, Nina Raoult, Karan Ruparell, Maria-Luisa Taccari, Florian Pappenberger, and Christel Prudhomme

Hydrological modeling has entered a new era in recent years, largely driven by the curation of extensive datasets and availability of open-source machine learning libraries. While traditional physically based models have been key to improving our understanding of hydrological systems and establishing early warning systems, they often face challenges such as high computational costs and requiring simplifications of complex processes. Conversely, machine learning methods, despite potential pitfalls such as generating unphysical outputs and requiring large volumes of training data, are computationally quick and capable of capturing highly non-linear relationships. Hybrid hydrological modeling bridges these approaches, combining the efficiency and flexibility of machine learning with the proven capabilities and interpretability of traditional physical models.

This talk will provide an overview of the hybrid hydrological modeling research being conducted at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Using case studies, we will show how machine learning methods could be incorporated into the pre-established physical modeling chain, addressing both scientific and operational challenges. Examples will cover the full modelling chain including the coupling of machine learning and physically based models, the use of emulators of sub-models to reduce computational overhead, and the integration of data-driven techniques to correct model biases in real time. The development of a machine learning forecasting model will also be discussed as a component of a hybrid multi-model system. Attention will be given to the practical aspects of implementation, including computational efficiency both for an operational system and for sensitivity and calibration experiments, scalability to large operational systems, and the potential to incorporate new datasets, such as remote sensing data, into hybrid frameworks. We will also discuss how artificial intelligence can be used to support auxiliary services such as simulation verification.

Finally, we will reflect on the implications of hybrid hydrological modeling for advancing hydrological science and operational forecasting. By combining the strengths of physical and machine learning models, this approach has the potential to improve flood prediction, water resource management, and climate impact assessments. This hybrid approach marks an important step forward in the development of hydrological modeling, enabling more accurate, efficient, and actionable understanding of water systems in a rapidly changing world.

How to cite: Matthews, G., Baugh, C., Chantry, M., Mazzetti, C., Mosaffa, H., Pinnington, E., Raoult, N., Ruparell, K., Taccari, M.-L., Pappenberger, F., and Prudhomme, C.: A new era of hybrid hydrological forecasting at ECMWF , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11925, 2025.

EGU25-12113 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

Bridging Physics and Machine Learning: A Signature-enhanced Hybrid Framework for Streamflow Prediction in Complex Catchments 

Ritesh Moon, Shasha Han, Laura Graham, and David Hannah

Accurate streamflow forecasting in both managed and natural catchments is critical for sustainable water resource management in the UK. Simulating hydrological processes such as flashy flood responses and reservoir-influenced flow dynamics remains a significant challenge, particularly in non-natural catchments where human interventions alter natural flow regimes. This study evaluated the effectiveness of three modelling frameworks across 341 selected UK catchments from the CAMELS-GB database: the HBV (a conceptual hydrological model), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM, a data-driven model), and a hybrid Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) model supplemented with hydrological signatures. The regional and spatial patterns of their performance was investigated using evaluation metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) during both the calibration and validation phases. The results show that LSTM outperforms HBV in 65% of the catchments, particularly in northern Scotland and the western UK, which have steep terrain with rapid runoff; but it lacks the physical interpretability that HBV provides. Despite its advantages in natural catchments, HBV tends to produce unsatisfactory simulations for   processes such as snowmelt and rapid storm response, as well as for regulated flows in reservoir-affected catchments, which are common in central and southern England. The incorporation of hydrological signatures (e.g., baseflow index, rainfall-runoff ratio) into the PIML framework addresses this limitation by encapsulating key reservoir processes (e.g., flow smoothing, seasonal redistribution) and anthropogenic influences, allowing for improved streamflow predictions and enhanced interpretability. Our study emphasises the need for hybrid modelling approaches that combine the physical coherence of conceptual models with the adaptability of data-driven procedures.  The findings highlight the necessity of adapting models to local conditions and accounting for the effects of human activity, providing a reliable way to enhance streamflow predictions in complicated and regulated catchments.

How to cite: Moon, R., Han, S., Graham, L., and Hannah, D.: Bridging Physics and Machine Learning: A Signature-enhanced Hybrid Framework for Streamflow Prediction in Complex Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12113, 2025.

EGU25-12201 | Posters on site | HS4.10

Integrating data-driven and physical models for urban flood prediction in a single framework  

Yao Li, Alfred Stein, and Frank Osei

Urban flooding, driven by rapid urbanization and climate change poses critical challenges globally. This research develops an innovative framework, combining diverse models, data and methods to address flood susceptibility, intensity prediction, and inundation simulation across multiple scales. The framework includes: (1) A machine learning based method to assess flood susceptibility, using social media data and environmental factors. It provides low-cost and real-time insights into flood-prone areas. (2) The Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) model as a spatial statistical model, for predicting flood intensity while capturing unexplained spatial variability; (3) A coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model that integrates a 1-dimensional flooding model with a 2D spatial model to simulate inundation. The framework was applied in the rapidly urbanizing regions of Chengdu and Haining, China. Key flood drivers were identified, vulnerable areas were highlighted, and actionable insights for urban flood mitigation were provided. By integrating data-driven models, spatial analysis, and physical simulations into a single framework, this research offers a scalable and comprehensive approach for urban flood management, with potential applications to other natural hazards globally.

How to cite: Li, Y., Stein, A., and Osei, F.: Integrating data-driven and physical models for urban flood prediction in a single framework , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12201, 2025.

EGU25-13016 | Orals | HS4.10

A Comprehensive Analysis of Graph Neural Networks for River Discharge Prediction: High-Resolution Applications in the Danube Basin 

Hamidreza Mosaffa, Christel Prudhomme, Matthew Chantry, Liz Stephens, Christoph Rüdiger, Florian Pappenberger, and Hannah Cloke

Recent advances in Earth observation and data collection technologies have made high-resolution hydrological datasets increasingly accessible, enhancing our capabilities for monitoring and predicting hydrological processes. While a variety of artificial intelligence (AI) models can be employed to leverage these datasets, the challenges and opportunities of different AI approaches in the context of high-resolution data availability remain only partially explored. For instance, although Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are widely used for discharge prediction, the potential of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs)—which naturally represent river networks as graphs and capture spatial dependencies—has yet to be fully investigated.

In this study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of GNN-based models for river discharge prediction in the Danube River Basin. Leveraging the LamaH-CE (Large-Sample Data for Hydrology and Environmental Sciences for Central Europe) dataset, we incorporate both dynamic features (e.g., daily precipitation, temperature, soil moisture) and static variables (e.g., digital elevation model, river density, basin area). Three architectures—GNN, a hybrid LSTM-GNN, and a standalone LSTM—are trained, validated, and tested at daily time steps from 2000 to 2017.

We further investigate the impact of network density and high-resolution (1km) soil moisture and precipitation data on discharge prediction accuracy. Our analysis reveals the potential advantages and limitations of these architectural approaches in river discharge prediction under high-resolution data availability and underscores the growing importance of harnessing graph-based deep learning methods for hydrological applications.

How to cite: Mosaffa, H., Prudhomme, C., Chantry, M., Stephens, L., Rüdiger, C., Pappenberger, F., and Cloke, H.: A Comprehensive Analysis of Graph Neural Networks for River Discharge Prediction: High-Resolution Applications in the Danube Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13016, 2025.

Flood early warning systems rely on accurate streamflow forecasts. Deep learning based approaches have been widely shown to outperform traditional, process-based approaches. While literature is rich with comparisons between these opposing modelling paradigms, most comparisons have been conducted at daily temporal resolutions and feature spatially coarse (i.e., lumped) process-based models. Flood forecasting applications, especially those in flashy urban catchments, rely on sub-daily forecasts. In this work, we compare the performance of a state-of-the-art regionally trained LSTM models with semi-distributed StormWater Management Models (SWMM) at temporal frequencies ranging from 15-minutes to 1-day, for roughly 40 highly urbanised catchments in Toronto, Canada. Results show that the LSTM approaches struggle at fine temporal resolution and when limited observed data is available. In contrast, SWMM models can be automatically parameterized and calibrated using comparatively much less data. While the amount of available historical data would be enough to train deep learning models at a daily resolution, it is insufficient to train hourly models, which we attribute to the comparatively more complex urban rainfall-runoff system. Potential solutions to this problem include model transfer between space and different temporal frequencies. Finally, another contribution of this work is LSTM hyperparameter optimization, which is not widely documented at a sub-hourly resolution. Results from this research reaffirm the need for multi-model approaches for flood forecasting, particularly in urbanised catchments.

How to cite: Snieder, E. and Khan, U.: Comparing deep-learning and semi-distributed models for flow forecasting at fine spatial and temporal resolutions: a case study of 40 urbanized catchments in Toronto, Canada., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13060, 2025.

Understanding the relationships between rainfall and river flows, especially as climate shifts and rainfall patterns are modified, and in the context of human intervention, requires studying rivers within their catchments. This is especially important for ungauged, remote catchments, which are often understudied due to the challenges in data collection. In line with the EU Water Framework Directive, studying such catchments can offer valuable insights into broader hydrological processes. This study focuses on two instrumented, small, upland rivers near Newport, County Mayo, in the west of Ireland. The lack of data from most small, upland catchments highlights the importance of using innovative approaches like Machine Learning (ML) for hydrological forecasting. ML, a branch of artificial intelligence, enables the development of predictive models that identify patterns in meteorological and hydrological data, even in the absence of direct measurements. Using at least 48 months of meteorological and hydrological data, this research aims to model catchment behaviour and improve the understanding of hydrological responses to climate variability and change in remote areas. This work seeks to enhance our ability to predict the physical drivers of hydrological change and contribute to more accurate forecasting in ungauged catchments. 

How to cite: Wall, C. and Henry, T.: Machine Learning for Hydrological Forecasting in Ungauged Upland Catchments: A Case Study from County Mayo, Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13252, 2025.

Use of complex, high-resolution integrated hydrologic models offer the most comprehensive and detailed representations of groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes, but are challenging to use for forecasting tasks due to high computational costs and parameter uncertainty. On the flipside, machine learning approaches are highly accurate and can be computationally frugal for targeted tasks, but are difficult to audit and must be retrained to adapt to new tasks or domains.

In this work we present several case studies of using deep learning surrogate modeling approaches for integrated hydrologic modeling that alleviates many of the weaknesses of taking a purely physically based or purely data driven approach. We first show how deep learning surrogates can readily achieve orders of magnitude speedup over the original physically based models with high degree of accuracy, which allows for on demand forecasting. While this approach is great for generating forecasts from the original model configuration, it is still challenging to adapt to new scenarios such as use in parameter calibration or running long simulations such as climate change scenarios. We close the presentation by discussing recent work to address these challenges using model inversion techniques and by developing hybrid model emulation strategies.

How to cite: Bennett, A., Triplett, A., Melchior, P., Maxwell, R., and Condon, L.: Surrogate modeling for large-scale integrated hydrologic modeling: A case study in deep learning, model inversion, and hybrid methods across the Continental United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13539, 2025.

EGU25-14726 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Multi-Model Ensemble and Reservoir Computing for Efficient River Discharge Prediction in Ungauged Basins 

Mizuki Funato and Yohei Sawada

Despite the critical need for accurate flood prediction, water resource management, and climate impact planning, many regions—particularly in Asia, Africa, and South America—face a significant lack of river discharge observation. Although numerous hydrological and machine learning models have been proposed, it is still a grand challenge to achieve rainfall-runoff modeling which is accurate, interpretable, and computationally cheap even under conditions with limited river discharge observation data. We address this challenge by proposing a novel method that leverages multi-model ensemble and reservoir computing (RC). First, we applied Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to 43 “uncalibrated” catchment-based conceptual hydrological models. Second, we trained RC to correct errors in the BMA predictions of river discharge. Since training RC is intrinsically a linear regression to determine the weights of its output layer, there are no iterative computations in the whole process of our proposed method, which significantly enhances computational efficiency. Third, based on both the weights of BMA and RC obtained in gauged river basins, we inferred the corresponding weights for ungauged river basins by linking catchment attributes to these weights. We evaluated this method in 87 ungauged river basins in Japan and found that it achieved a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.55 and a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.52. These results reveal that individual conceptual hydrological models do not necessarily need to be calibrated when an effectively large ensemble is assembled and combined with machine-learning-based bias correction. Furthermore, by leveraging the relationship between observed data and catchment attributes, our method enables river discharge prediction in ungauged basins, making it applicable to a wide range of regions.

How to cite: Funato, M. and Sawada, Y.: Multi-Model Ensemble and Reservoir Computing for Efficient River Discharge Prediction in Ungauged Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14726, 2025.

EGU25-14747 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Reservoir inflow forecast system for major Indian dams 

Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in India, causing widespread disruption to agriculture, infrastructure, and lives during the Indian summer monsoon. Dams play a critical role in mitigating downstream flooding by regulating reservoir storage and release. As the ability of dams to control floods strongly depend on antecedent reservoir storage, reservoir inflow forecasts are crucial for effective decision-making. Despite an extensive network of large dams, India currently lacks a reservoir inflow forecasting system incorporating all its major dams. Using the H08 land surface hydrological model with the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, we developed a reservoir inflow forecast system for the major reservoirs in India. Using the meteorological forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the framework provides short-range inflow forecasts to support decision-making. This forecast system offers potential to optimize reservoir storage levels, attenuate projected inflows, and mitigate downstream flooding.

How to cite: Vegad, U. and Mishra, V.: Reservoir inflow forecast system for major Indian dams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14747, 2025.

EGU25-14838 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Machine Learning-Based Assessment of High-Impact Low Likelihood Precipitation Events in North India 

Aayushi Tandon, Amit Awasthi, and Kanhu Charan Pattnayak

Climate change has led to notable discrepancies in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in the Himalayan region of North India, posing significant challenges for water management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness. Historical data indicate a 5–10% increase in extreme precipitation events over recent decades, resulting in severe floods, landslides, and crop failures that have heavily impacted local communities and the regional economy. This study applies a machine learning framework to assess and project precipitation extremes in North India using IMDAA reanalysis data. Supervised machine learning models—Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—were employed for spatial classification across diverse topographies. The RF model achieved higher accuracy (86%) in low-elevation, less complex terrains, while the SVM model performed better (87%) in high-altitude, complex regions. Additionally, the RF model demonstrated superior probabilistic prediction with a lower Brier score of 0.07.  The varying model performance reflects the influence of topography, atmospheric dynamics, and data resolution. RF effectively captures non-linear relationships in simpler terrains, whereas SVM’s ability to define optimal hyperplanes enhances its performance in mountainous areas. Our analysis highlights significant spatial heterogeneity in precipitation extremes, revealing intensifying extreme events and identifying hotspots of substantial change across Northern India. These insights are crucial for informing targeted adaptation strategies in water resource management, flood risk assessment, and climate resilience planning. By pinpointing vulnerable regions and potential future hotspots, this study can support policy-making, infrastructure development, and community preparedness, ultimately reducing economic losses and safeguarding lives. Integrating machine learning with IMDAA reanalysis data proves valuable in understanding extreme precipitation events. Future research will incorporate CMIP6 climate projections to refine predictions and offer a more comprehensive evaluation of future climate scenarios, thereby enhancing preparedness for extreme weather events amid ongoing climate change. 

How to cite: Tandon, A., Awasthi, A., and Pattnayak, K. C.: Machine Learning-Based Assessment of High-Impact Low Likelihood Precipitation Events in North India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14838, 2025.

EGU25-16009 | Posters on site | HS4.10

Advancing Crop Yield Predictions: The Potential of Diffusion Models in Machine Learning for Agriculture 

Amit Kumar Srivastava, Krishnagopal Halder, Yue Shi, Liangxiu Han, Radwa EI Shawi, Jan Timko, Wenzhi Zheng, Gang Zhao, Karam Alsafadi, Manmeet Singh, Dominik Behrend, Thomas Gaiser, and Frank Ewert

The dual challenges of climate change and a growing population exceeding 9 billion by 2030 necessitate precise regional crop yield prediction models to optimize management, ensure food security, and guide agricultural decisions. Machine learning (ML), leveraging big data and high-performance computing, provides powerful tools for addressing these complexities but faces challenges such as inconsistent data quality and variable algorithm performance. While ML algorithms like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Random Forests (RF), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks show promise in crop yield prediction, their performance can be hindered by data noise and incompleteness. Diffusion (a probabilistic generative model), with its iterative denoising capabilities, offers resilience to these issues and holds significant potential to improve accuracy and reliability in crop forecasting, though their use in this domain remains largely untapped.

This study compared XGBoost (XGB), a state-of-the-art tree-based ML model, with our proposed Diffusion-reg (DR) model. The input data for the models was compiled from multiple sources, including crop calendar data from MIRCA2000, net primary production (NPP) data from WAPOR, soil data from the Soil-Grids database, and maize crop yield data from the FAO database. Climate variables such as precipitation, air temperature, and solar radiation were obtained from ERA5, with all data aggregated into decadal periods. Additionally, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from MODIS were collected at 16-day intervals. In the subsequent step, maize yield data at the country level from the FAO was spatially disaggregated to produce pixel-scale estimates (250 m resolution, aligned with the soil input data resolution). This process focused exclusively on cropland areas within the five major maize-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The evaluation of model performance metrics highlights the consistent superiority of the DR model over XGB across all analyzed countries. The R2 values, which measure the proportion of variance explained by the models, indicate higher predictive accuracy for Diffusion-reg in every instance. For example, in Ethiopia, the DR achieves an almost perfect R2 of 0.98 compared to XGB’s 0.95, while the largest gap is observed in South Africa, with R2 values of 0.86 for DR and 0.76 for XGB. These results highlight the DR model’s ability to effectively capture complex data patterns, even in regions with higher predictive challenges.
Further, the RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) metrics reinforce the DR model’s superior predictive precision. Across all countries, DR consistently exhibits lower error values, with Ethiopia showing the best performance (RMSE: 0.02, MAE: 0.01). Although South Africa records the highest RMSE (0.25) and MAE (0.13) for the DR model, these metrics still significantly outperform those of XGB. Similar trends in Uganda and Mozambique, where the DR model achieves substantial reductions in error, further validate its robustness and reliability.
In summary, the DR model consistently outperforms XGBoost in diverse regional contexts, highlighting its potential for broader application in predictive tasks requiring high accuracy and resilience.

How to cite: Srivastava, A. K., Halder, K., Shi, Y., Han, L., EI Shawi, R., Timko, J., Zheng, W., Zhao, G., Alsafadi, K., Singh, M., Behrend, D., Gaiser, T., and Ewert, F.: Advancing Crop Yield Predictions: The Potential of Diffusion Models in Machine Learning for Agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16009, 2025.

EGU25-16839 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

Advancing Resource Forecasting: An Evaluation of Hybrid Predictive Models on River Flow Rates 

Ali Shakil, Charlotte Sakarovitch, Najim Bouhafa, and Cyril Leclerc

Reliable forecasting of resource availability and demand evolution is paramount for effective community planning. The forecast horizon, which can range from a few days to several years, plays a crucial role in this process. Short-term forecasts allow for the optimization of withdrawals according to demand, while medium-term forecasts enable anticipation of resource scarcity risks, planning operations on sensitive structures, or anticipating demand peaks. Long-term forecasts, on the other hand, help anticipate and analyze development strategies and usage scenarios.
 
This study, a component of the Water Resources Forecast (WRF) SUEZ’s project, partially funded by the French Ecological Transition Agency (ADEME’s innov’eau initiative), introduces an innovative approach to predicting river flow rates. We assess the performance of three distinct model types: traditional lumped rainfall–runoff conceptual models with two reservoirs, classic AI models (Random Forest, LSTM, etc.), and hybrid models that synergize AI and conceptual models for enhanced predictive accuracy.
 
Preliminary findings suggest LSTM and that hybrid models utilizing LSTM demonstrate superior short-term performance, reducing error rates by 41% compared to standalone conceptual models. These results indicate the potential of AI and hybrid models in improving the accuracy of resource availability forecasts. The analysis of the medium and long-term performances of the forecast models is currently underway and the findings will be presented at the conference.
 
This ongoing research contributes to the development of Aquadvanced® Water Resources, a comprehensive platform aimed at monitoring and forecasting various resource types, both underground and surface. By aligning resource availability with water demand forecasts, this tool will facilitate resource management strategies.

How to cite: Shakil, A., Sakarovitch, C., Bouhafa, N., and Leclerc, C.: Advancing Resource Forecasting: An Evaluation of Hybrid Predictive Models on River Flow Rates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16839, 2025.

EGU25-17296 | ECS | Orals | HS4.10

Hydrological Modelling vs. Machine Learning for Water Availability: Case Study from the Reno Basin (Italy) 

Majid Niazkar, Omar Cenobio-Cruz, Gloria Mozzi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, and Jeremy Pal

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for water resources management, particularly in the regions facing challenges such as water scarcity and hydrological unpredictability. Physical-based hydrological models have long been used for rainfall-runoff simulations by solving equations governing hydrological processes in a typical watershed. In addition, Machine Learning (ML) models emerged as versatile data-driven approaches capable of capturing intricate patterns of hydroclimatic variables, which can be used for streamflow prediction.

The aim of this study is to compare performances of two distinct approaches: (i) the process-based and semi-distributed Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), a tree-based ML algorithm. The case study is upper Reno River Basin, situated in northern Italy. Precipitation across the basin varies considerably due to orographic influences, while this spatial variability drives diverse seasonal and regional streamflow patterns. For this purpose, a 5-km gridded meteorological data (the ERG5 dataset) was used as input for both models from 2001 to 2022. The database was developed by ARPAe-SIMC for the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy. Furthermore, the streamflow was considered as output results. For the sake of comparison, both models were calibrated using the same time series, partitioning the data into 75% for calibration/training and 25% for testing.

The simulation performance for river discharge showed high values of the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for the training phase as XGBoost showed slightly better values of KGE (0.86) than that of HYPE (0.82). For the test period, KGE around 0.8 was obtained by both models. Thus, the KGE values were comparable for both models, with HYPE slightly outperforming XGBoost (0.82 vs. 0.78). The flow-duration curves revealed that both models performed well for estimating peak discharges (below 30% occurrence). However, for drier conditions, HYPE shows a better agreement with the observed data, while ML tended to overestimate it.

The results indicate that traditional hydrological models performed slightly better than XGBoost for streamflow estimation in the region under investigation. The performance of XGBoost may be improved if seasonality was taken into account, which can be explored in future works. Based on the comparative analysis, ML techniques can provide a suitable alternative in cases where little is known about the region’s hydrological characteristics, leveraging data patterns without requiring detailed process knowledge. Nonetheless, the application of ML requires caution, as its black-box nature may obscure the underlying physical and hydrological processes, potentially leading to misinterpretation of results. Finally, this comparison provides valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners in selecting appropriate tools for streamflow prediction tasks.

Acknowledgements: This research work was carried out as part of the TRANSCEND project with funding received from the European Union Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 10108411.

How to cite: Niazkar, M., Cenobio-Cruz, O., Mozzi, G., Di Baldassarre, G., and Pal, J.: Hydrological Modelling vs. Machine Learning for Water Availability: Case Study from the Reno Basin (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17296, 2025.

EGU25-17758 | ECS | Posters on site | HS4.10

Understanding flood events from the compound perspective 

Jinjie Zhao and Carlo De Michele

Compound flood events result from multiple physical processes across spatial and temporal scales. Analyzing floods from a single or univariate perspective can underestimate their complexity and dynamics. Conversely, understanding flood mechanisms from a compound perspective facilitates the development of effective adaptation strategies. Here, we made a process-based analysis using a hybrid model, that integrates a hydrological model (namely HBV) with a machine learning model for hydrodynamics, to assess flood events from a compound perspective. This hybrid approach balances model interpretability with computational efficiency. This study aims to quantify the contribution of compound factors to flood events, selected from the Global Flood Database. The findings may serve as a reference for analyzing other types of compound events.

How to cite: Zhao, J. and De Michele, C.: Understanding flood events from the compound perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17758, 2025.

The impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts pose significant challenges for sustainable water resource management in semi-arid regions like the Sabarmati Basin, India. Accurate forecasting of these extremes is crucial for improving resilience and supporting decision-making in water resource and emergency management. While physically-based hydrological models have long been instrumental in simulating water cycle processes, their limitations in capturing nonlinearities and biases in observational and climatic data necessitate innovative solutions. In this context, hybrid modeling approaches, which integrate machine learning techniques with physically-based models, present a promising avenue for enhancing hydrological forecasting.

This study investigates the potential of hybrid models to improve the forecasting of hydrological extremes in the Sabarmati Basin across different temporal scales. We integrate outputs from a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with advanced machine learning algorithms, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM). The hybrid framework leverages the strengths of physically-based models in simulating water cycle dynamics and the adaptability of machine learning models in capturing complex, nonlinear relationships and correcting biases.

Key contributions include: (1) the development of a hybrid framework capable of forecasting floods and droughts by combining real-time climate inputs with hydrological outputs, (2) scenario-based assessments using CMIP6 projections to evaluate future hydrological risks under different SSPs, and (3) the analysis of uncertainties and insights into the physical and human-induced processes driving hydrological extremes. Preliminary results demonstrate that the hybrid model improves predictive accuracy for flood peaks and drought indices, reducing forecasting errors compared to standalone models. These advancements have direct implications for operational water resource management and climate adaptation planning in the Sabarmati Basin.

This work contributes to ongoing efforts in hydrological forecasting by highlighting the effectiveness of hybrid approaches in addressing challenges associated with scale, predictability, and uncertainty, while offering a scalable framework for application in similar semi-arid regions globally.

How to cite: Kadri, S. and Shaikh, M. M.: Enhancing Hydrological Forecasting in the Sabarmati Basin through Hybrid Approaches Integrating Physically-Based and Machine Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18959, 2025.

EGU25-19297 | Orals | HS4.10

Coupling SWAT+ and machine learning-Enhanced global climate models for seasonal hydrological prediction 

Javier Senent-Aparicio, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Sara Asadi, Nerea Bilbao-Barrenetxea, Gerardo Castellanos-Osorio, Adrián López-Ballesteros, and Francisco Cabezas

The Segura River Basin, which supplies water for agriculture, receives water from the Upper Tagus River Basin (UTRB) through the Tagus-Segura water transfer, involving two reservoirs: Entrepeñas and Buendía. Accurate reservoir inflow forecasts, particularly seasonal ones, are crucial for making better and more reliable water transfer decisions. This study introduces a methodology for seasonal forecasting using ensemble weather forecasts from climate models, with a focus on the SEAS5 model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Initially, by combining the global climate model with machine learning algorithms, bias correction of daily precipitation and temperature forecasts is achieved. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) hydrological model is employed to simulate inflows to the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs, calibrated against observed inflows. The first five years from 1995 to 1999 are used for warm-up, the period from 2000 to 2009 for calibration, and from 2010 to 2019 for validation. The calibrated SWAT+ model is then forced with bias-corrected meteorological data forecasts to predict reservoir inflows for the upcoming months. The SWAT+ model's performance during calibration and validation was very good, with monthly NSE values exceeding 0.7 and PBIAS values below 14% for both reservoirs. When the model was forced with bias-corrected hydrological forecasts, it performed well, demonstrating the effectiveness of bias-corrected forecasted meteorological data in predicting reservoir inflows. This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, under grants PID2021-128126OA-I00.

Keywords: SWAT+, machine learning, coupled modelling, streamflow simulation, seasonal hydrological forecasting

How to cite: Senent-Aparicio, J., Jimeno-Sáez, P., Asadi, S., Bilbao-Barrenetxea, N., Castellanos-Osorio, G., López-Ballesteros, A., and Cabezas, F.: Coupling SWAT+ and machine learning-Enhanced global climate models for seasonal hydrological prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19297, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19297, 2025.

EGU25-2564 | ECS | PICO | HS4.11

Potential effects of hydrometeorological extremes on river water quality 

Jie Jiang, Sijing He, Yuhong Chen, Zhaoli Wang, Chengguang Lai, Xushu Wu, and Zhaoyang Zeng

Hydrometeorological extremes, such as intense rainfall, prolonged droughts, and extreme temperature fluctuations, are increasingly impacting river systems worldwide. These events not only alter hydrological regimes but also significantly influence water quality, presenting challenges for ecosystems, water resource management, and public health. This study explores the interplay between hydrometeorological extremes and river water quality, focusing on nutrient loading, sediment transport, dissolved oxygen levels, and contaminant mobilization. Using case studies from diverse climatic regions, we investigate how extreme events disrupt physical, chemical, and biological processes within river systems. Intense rainfall events, for instance, are shown to exacerbate nutrient runoff and sediment resuspension, leading to eutrophication and habitat degradation. Conversely, drought conditions amplify salinity, temperature, and pollutant concentrations due to reduced dilution capacity. The role of antecedent conditions, event frequency, and catchment characteristics in moderating these impacts will be also evaluated. Hopefully through a combination of field observations, remote sensing data, and hydrological modeling, this work will provide a comprehensive assessment of how future shifts in extreme event patterns, driven by climate change, could shape river water quality dynamics. The research findings will underline the urgent need for adaptive water quality management strategies that incorporate the projected increase in hydrometeorological extremes, emphasizing ecosystem resilience and the protection of water resources.

How to cite: Jiang, J., He, S., Chen, Y., Wang, Z., Lai, C., Wu, X., and Zeng, Z.: Potential effects of hydrometeorological extremes on river water quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2564, 2025.

EGU25-3565 | PICO | HS4.11 | Highlight

Impact-Based Flood Risk Assessment for Actionable Resilience Strategies for Kochi, an Indian Coastal City. 

Mahua Mukherjee and Hudha Abdul Salam

Floods are attracting global attention; 23% (1.81 billion) of the world’s population live in areas directly exposed to floods. Floods are the most frequent and one of the costliest disasters worldwide, with 1.3 trillion USD loss in the past 30 years. Coastal urban areas require greater attention due to their increased vulnerability to Sea Level Rise (SLR), cyclones, storm surges and other related challenges. In Asia, India is one of the severely affected countries by floods. With a coastline of 7500km, Indian coastal urban areas such as Surat, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Kochi and Vishakapatanam face urban flood issues annually. Several criteria influence urban flood Risk, each contributing its share to the overall flood risk. A comprehensive output of the analysis of all these criteria/layers provides a platform to assess flood risk mitigation potential. Flood resilience strategies formulated at a broader administrative level are often implemented on a smaller scale, such as wards or blocks.

A uniform approach may not be advantageous for all the wards due to the diverse challenges across all the wards. Even with a similar overall risk index, the action needed will differ based on the severity of the individual risk criteria contributing to the risk. An Impact-based risk assessment analyses individual criteria layers, which can provide specific insights into the challenges and needs of the local context. The scientific approach in analysis is advantageous for impact-based assessment. The categorization of wards into different zones for the individual risk criteria makes it beneficial in developing custom-made actionable strategies.

For current study, Kochi Municipal Corporation (Kochi City), the commercial capital of Kerala, is selected as the Area of Interest (AOI). The city adjoins seacoast on the west-side, with backwaters entering the land mass, giving a distinctive landscape. Kochi is divided into 74 administrative wards, ranging from 17.38sqkm (Ward-03) to 595.67sqkm (Ward-29). The distinctive physical and social characteristics across the wards in the AOI call for a more specific approach to flood management strategies.

For Kochi City, eleven significant criteria under Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability components contributing to the urban flood risk are identified and analyzed spatially for the AOI. The wards are divided into five different zones based on the risk level. The zoning considers the individual criteria indices, hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index and overall risk index. The individual criteria indices help identify more specific challenges and needs at the local level based on the socio-economic and environmental situation. The existing flood mitigation measures and management strategies are considered in the preparation of actionable solutions. Depending on the need and urgency, actionable solutions for different priority levels are formulated for each risk zone.

The approach is multifaceted, considering the overall risk and analyzing the specific issues associated with the individual or a group of wards with similar contexts. The prioritization of the actions offers an opportunity to better allocate the resources to risk zones that need immediate actions. Understanding the impacts specific to the wards helps develop targeted strategies to reduce the specific challenges, thereby enhancing overall resilience.

How to cite: Mukherjee, M. and Abdul Salam, H.: Impact-Based Flood Risk Assessment for Actionable Resilience Strategies for Kochi, an Indian Coastal City., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3565, 2025.

EGU25-3606 | PICO | HS4.11

Flood forecasting in the Complex River Basin Affected by Man-made Hydraulic Structures 

hua zhong, hualing shang, and xueyan duan mu

Flood forecasting is particularly challenging in complex basins influenced by man-made structures and regulations. To enhance forecasting accuracy, a coupled hydrological and 1D/2D hydrodynamic model was developed to simulate flood process in mountainous streams, plains river networks, hydraulic control structures and flood detention areas. Applied to the Puyang River Basin, a densely populated region characterized by hills and plains, the coupled model integrates Xin’anjiang model with Muskingum routing module to estimate upstream mountainous flow discharge, and employs 1D /2D hydrodynamic model to simulate flood processes in rivers and overland areas. This coupled framework, encompassing a 2,500 km² catchment area, includes 7 river branches, 7 dams, 1 flood detention area, and over 100 floodgates and pumps, incorporating real-time flood control operations. Calibration and validation with over 30 years of observed flood data demonstrates over 85% acceptability, confirming the model’s robustness and reliability. Therefore the coupled model become a feasible tool to monitor and forecasting flood process in a complex catchment with many regulated structures. However, comprehensive datasets, including long-term records of precipitation, evaporation, water level, and discharge, as well as detailed topographic and infrastructure data, are critical for accurate calibration and forecasting.

This approach facilitates real-time monitoring and prediction in complex, regulated basins. Discussions on flood scenarios considering disaster-inducing factors, flood control strategies, and optimized structural operations are addressed, providing a framework adaptable to other similarly complex river basins.

How to cite: zhong, H., shang, H., and duan mu, X.: Flood forecasting in the Complex River Basin Affected by Man-made Hydraulic Structures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3606, 2025.

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are among the most critical factors influencing the performance of flood modeling. In many regions worldwide, freely available satellite-derived global DEMs are often the only accessible source of topographic data. Extensive research has focused on improving freely available DEMs to support catchment-scale flood modelling, particularly in low-lying areas. However, relatively little attention has been given to high-mountain and rugged terrains, such as the Himalayas. In these environments, the low resolution of open-access DEMs often fails to capture key hydrological features, such as narrow valleys and streams, leading to suboptimal performance of hydrodynamic models. This study uses Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) — widely recognised as one of the most devastating natural hazards in the Himalayas — as a case study. We evaluate the performance of five contemporary 1 arc-second (~30 m) DEMs: FABDEM, Copernicus DEM, NASADEM, AW3D30, and SRTM. The evaluation is conducted by analysing differences in simulated inundation areas, water depths, flow velocities, and flow arrival times for GLOFs using a GPU-based high-performance hydrodynamic model. To address the limitations of freely available DEMs, this study proposes a novel method for hydrological correction in DEMs to improve the accuracy of GLOF modelling. GLOF events are simulated using the original and hydrologically corrected DEMs, followed by a comparative analysis to assess the simulation accuracy and performance of the different DEMs. The results demonstrate that the corrected DEMs yield significant improvements in modelling accuracy, highlighting the potential of this approach for more reliable flood hazard and risk assessments in high-mountain environments. 

How to cite: Chen, H. and Liang, Q.: Evaluate and Enhance the Efficiency of Freely Available Global DEMs for Flood Modeling in High-Mountain Environments: A Case Study of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4194, 2025.

EGU25-4381 | PICO | HS4.11

Intensive human activities causing riverbed incision have increased the  danger of compound flood in the PRD. 

Yuhong Chen, Jie Jiang, Sijing He, Zhaoyang Zeng, and Zhaoli Wang

Estuary and coastal regions face the dual impacts of river flooding and storm surges, posing serious threats to the lives and properties of residents. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in China, an economically developed and densely populated region with a complex river network, is frequently affected by flood disasters. In recent years, rapid development in the Greater Bay Area, coupled with human activities such as sand mining and dredging, has significantly altered riverbed morphology, leading to a pronounced trend of incision. On one hand, riverbed incision increases the cross-sectional area, allowing for greater flood discharge; on the other hand, it changes the hydrodynamic conditions of the rivers, resulting in rising water levels in certain areas despite the incision.

This study employs a one-dimensional river hydrodynamic model and a storm surge model to simulate the impacts of river flooding and storm surges under various topographic conditions on flood disasters in the Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that the nonlinear interactions between floods and tides amplify the hazard of compound flooding in the mid-to-lower river network region. Furthermore, the severity of this hazard intensifies as the strength of flood-tide compound events increases.

How to cite: Chen, Y., Jiang, J., He, S., Zeng, Z., and Wang, Z.: Intensive human activities causing riverbed incision have increased the  danger of compound flood in the PRD., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4381, 2025.

Groundwater from karst aquifers supplies freshwater for 25% of the world population. Worldwidely, groundwater level has been descending, spring discharge has declined, and some springs have dried up due to climate changes and anthropogenic activities. Spring discharge as a proxy, can reflects the state of karst hydrological processes. Thus, simulation of spring discharge is vital in water resources development, utilization and management.

The forming processes of spring discharge in a basin include surface water convergence, dictated by terrains, and groundwater diffusion, controlled by heterogeneous aquifers. Consideration of the physical processes can better understand karst hydrological processes. Many machine learning models have recently been used to simulate karst spring processes, however, without considering the physical mechanisms. This paper develops a graph neural network (GNN) embedded with a heat kernel (HK) model to depict rainfall-runoff converging and groundwater diffusing processes in data insufficient area and finally realize spring discharge modeling. Application of the model to Niangziguan Springs, China, demonstrates that the GNN with the second-order HK has better metric performance than the first-order model in forecasting multi-time step spring discharge processes. The optimal graph structure of the model varies with the forecasting time step. The structure of one- and two-step forecasting is an information flow graph, which mainly describes the convergence of surface flow, while the structure of three- and four-step forecasting is a groundwater flow graph that stresses groundwater diffusion. The facts reveal that surface water convergence is completed within two months, and groundwater diffusion mainly happens between three and four months. GNN with HK is robust in depicting the karst hydrological processes with interpretability.

How to cite: Hao, Y.: A graph neural network-based model for spring discharge forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5283, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5283, 2025.

EGU25-5518 | PICO | HS4.11

System Response Parameter Calibration Method and its Application on Hydrological Model 

Liping Zhao, Weimin Bao, Minglei Ren, and Yawei Ning

The existing parameter calibration methods are based on the objective function surface to find the optimal value. This kind of method has the problems such as unstable result, poor convergence performance, low efficiency and failure to find the global optimal value. Based on the analysis of the objective function structure and the information that it provides for the parameter calibration, the essential problems existing in the present method was found in this paper. And the paper also found that the information provided by the parameter function surface is more direct and effective than by the objective function surface. Furthermore, the nonlinear model function can be linearized by the system response relationship between the increment of the dependent variables and the increment of parameters. Based on these researches, this paper proposed the system response parameter calibration method based on the parametric function surface. Firstly, the method is verified by an ideal model. The results showed that all the sensitive parameters could reach the real values not influenced by the different initial parameter values with higher convergence speed and accuracy, which verified that the method is feasible. Lastly, the XAJ Model parameters based on Shaowu basin measured data were also calibrated by the method. The results showed that the stable optimal parameter values could also be quickly got. So the system response parameter calibration method is an effective parameters optimization method.

How to cite: Zhao, L., Bao, W., Ren, M., and Ning, Y.: System Response Parameter Calibration Method and its Application on Hydrological Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5518, 2025.

EGU25-6919 | ECS | PICO | HS4.11

Comparing different deep learning architectures for S2S forecasting of widespread floods in the Yangtze River Basin 

Ying Zhang, Ralf Merz, Zengxin Zhang, and Larisa Tarasova

Widespread floods are floods that co-occur in space over a large geographical area, typically caused by prolonged or extreme rainfall, which affects extensive regions and even whole countries. The improvement of early warning systems, particularly improving the skill of seasonal and sub-seasonal (S2S) forecast is imperative to improve our preparedness and reduce loss of life, property damage, and environmental disruption caused by spatially co-occurring floods. The aim of this study is to forecast the (sub-)seasonal probabilities of widespread flooding across the highly anthropogenically regulated Yangtze River Basin in China using deep learning techniques. For that we test three contrasting state-of-the-art deep learning architectures for predicting sequential time series: recurring (i.e., Long short-term memory, LSTM), convolutional (i.e., dilated convolutional neural network, dCNN) and transformer-based networks (i.e., Informer). We use monthly antecedent precipitation and large scale climatic indices to forecast widespread floods severity index for different lead times at S2S timescale. In our study the widespread flood severity is estimated as the sum of daily maximum streamflow that exceeds local (i.e., gauge-specific) 2-year return period within the given months for the period 1961-2018 across 40 sub-catchments in the Yangtze River Basin. The three deep learning models are trained on the whole Yangtze River basin and four distinct hydroclimatic regions, intending to provide a deeper understanding on regional variability of large-scale atmospheric drivers of widespread flooding. Our preliminary results for the LSTM-based models indicate that in the case one-month-ahead forecasts, the seasonal patterns of widespread flooding are captured accurately for the whole Yangtze Basin and for the four individual regions. However, the models tend to underestimate flood severity under extreme conditions. In the next steps, we plan to extend lead time to three months and compare the performance of three different architectures mentioned above with the aim to enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for widespread floods.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Merz, R., Zhang, Z., and Tarasova, L.: Comparing different deep learning architectures for S2S forecasting of widespread floods in the Yangtze River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6919, 2025.

Compound flooding poses significant global socio-economic and infrastructure risks that are projected to intensify due to climate change and anthropogenic development. These compound floods, where multiple interacting drivers amplify flood extents and depths, are the most widespread and catastrophic natural hazards, in particular in urban catchments, inflicting billions of dollars in damages and jeopardizing livelihoods and critical resources. A primary challenge in addressing these events lies in the incomplete understanding of the nonlinear and complex climatic, hydrological, and hydrodynamic processes involved in compound flooding, which often leads to ineffective flood management strategies. This gap in knowledge also limits the development of suitable tools and methods for accurate flood characterization and modeling. Given the massive and escalating impacts of such events, there is a clear need for a more comprehensive understanding of the key drivers that shape flood dynamics, including uncertainties related to climate, human activity, and natural systems. Although significant advances have been made in developing physically-based dynamic models for flood simulation, these models often fall short in terms of accuracy and reliability, and remain computationally intensive for operational use. These challenges stem from an incomplete understanding of flood processes, uncertainties in predictability, and limitations in model assumptions. This presentation addresses these challenges by proposing an integrated framework that incorporates human activity, hydrological factors, topography, river morphology, and land use to enhance our understanding of riverine, coastal, and compound flood generation. It also highlights strategies for improving flood forecasting and inundation modeling through the integration of state-of-the-art process-based models, data assimilation, and machine learning, while considering cascading uncertainties in both model predictions and real-world applications.

How to cite: Moradkhani, H.: From Complexity to Clarity: An Integrative Framework for Enhancing Flood Forecasting in Urban Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7506, 2025.

EGU25-11793 | PICO | HS4.11

Simulating Daily Flood Inundation Forecasts for a Large Flood-Prone River Delta in Eastern India 

Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, and Bhabagrahi Sahoo

Recurring annual floods creates havoc to the life and property of millions of people around the world. Along with damaging the natural habitat of the living beings, floods terminally affects the growth and development of crops. Accurate flood inundation forecasting plays a crucial role in analysing the risk associated with crop damage due to flooding. Keeping this in view, this study attempts to simulate the flood inundation extent and depth with a daily lead-time of up to 3 days. The Mahanadi River delta in eastern India, which is one of the highly flood prone river deltas in the world is considered as the study area. The rainfall forecasts for the river basin are first bias-corrected using a newly developed bias-correction technique employing copula functions and self-organizing maps. Forcing the hydro-meteorological inputs to a conceptual hydrological model, the discharge forecasts up to 3 days lead-time are obtained. For further improvement, the errors in the discharge forecasts are updated using the state-of-the-art deep learning model, Long-Short Term Memory. Finally, the forecasted inundation depth and extent are simulated by forcing the hydrodynamic 1D-2D MIKE FLOOD model with the improved daily discharge forecasts as the upstream inflow boundary conditions. The hydrological model-simulated discharges after performing error updation are found to be reasonably accurate with a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of >0.90. More than 50% of the observed flood inundated area are found to coincide with the model simulated inundations.

How to cite: Chatterjee, C., Khatun, A., and Sahoo, B.: Simulating Daily Flood Inundation Forecasts for a Large Flood-Prone River Delta in Eastern India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11793, 2025.

EGU25-13731 | ECS | PICO | HS4.11

Enhancing reservoir inflow predictions through dynamic forecast merging 

Md Rasel Sheikh and Paulin Coulibaly

Hydrologic forecast merging (HFM) is critical in enhancing forecast accuracy by addressing uncertainties from model structures and parameters. This study integrates forecasts from spatially large-scale and locally calibrated models to improve reservoir inflow predictions through a dynamic weight estimation approach. The method uses time-series features (TSFs) of streamflow and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) for dynamic weight estimation. The conceptual HBV-EC model is set up on the spatially large Moose River basin in Canada in a semi-distributed fashion, while the GR4J, HYMOD, and SACSMA models are implemented to simulate inflow for the Mesomikenda Lake Dam within the large basin. Both large and local-scale models are calibrated using Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Using the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) dataset, reservoir inflow forecasts are generated up to ten days ahead by applying the calibrated models. Then, the dynamic merging approach is applied to improve inflow forecast accuracy, and the outcomes are compared with the traditional fixed weights  merging method. Results show that while large-scale models generally underperform compared to local-scale models, nonetheless, they provide better fits in specific hydrograph segments. Merging inflow forecasts using the dynamic weight estimation approach shows higher accuracy than the fixed-weight method. Overall, the findings indicate the utility of merging large-scale model forecasts with the local one through the dynamic weight estimation method, offering water resource managers more reliable and precise forecasts for better decision-making. 

How to cite: Sheikh, M. R. and Coulibaly, P.: Enhancing reservoir inflow predictions through dynamic forecast merging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13731, 2025.

Accurate flood forecasting is of great significance for flood prevention and mitigation, protection of residents' lives and properties, as well as rational utilization and protection of water resources. To improve the accuracy and reliability of flood forecasting, a deep learning flood process probabilistic forecasting model VD-LSTM-Bootstrap based on the vector direction of the flood process is constructed by coupling the runoff process vectorization method and Bootstrap interval prediction method in the input and output layers of the LSTM model, respectively. Jingle and Lushi watersheds were selected as the study areas, and the model was trained and validated based on 50 and 20 measured flood data according to the 7:3 division ratio, respectively. The results show that, compared with LSTM, the VD-LSTM model has better overall forecasting performance, with NSE above 0.8, RE less than 15%, and RMSE and bias smaller; The discharge simulation results of the VD-LSTM are in better agreement with the measured discharge process lines, and the problems of underestimation of the flood peaks and hysteresis of the model are improved; In terms of probabilistic forecasting, the confidence intervals provided by the VD-LSTM-Bootstrap model exhibit high reliability, with coverage rates in the Jingle and Lushi basins at 90.1%, 85.5%, 80.3%, and 91.7%, 86.2%, 81.6%, respectively, which are above the corresponding confidence level.

How to cite: Xie, T.: Study on Machine Learning Method Based on Vector Direction of Flood Process for Flood Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14887, 2025.

The accuracy and precision of grid-based 2D hydrodynamic modeling of pluvial and fluvial urban flooding scenarios are highly sensitive to the spatial resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM) employed. The use of a 1-meter resolution DEM can significantly improve the performance of 2D models relative to coarser resolutions. The sole 1m DEM with extensive coverage of the continental United States is provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) through the 3DEP program. This dataset is produced by Lidar which is used to generate bare-earth elevations, particularly important for the modeling of urban coastal floodplains.

The challenge in using the USGS 1m DEM for hydrologic modeling is that waterways above a certain width are “hydroflattened”, with the elevation of channels reflecting an averaged elevation of the water surface and providing no information about the underlying channel bathymetry. As river bathymetry data is sparse and inconsistent, this presents an issue. One approach to this problem is adjusting the roughness coefficient, or Manning’s n, of the DEM water surface to reflect very low friction such that discharge “sits” on top of the “solid” base stage of the river and is transported downstream with low resistance. One issue with this approach is that the hydraulic radius is significantly smaller compared to that obtained using the actual channel area, potentially biasing results.

We devise a simplified set of experiments using Manning’s equation for a rectangular channel to efficiently calibrate and validate a 2D hydrologic model based on the USGS 1m DEM. We present the results of a case study of the Charles River watershed in Eastern Massachusetts, USA. The Charles is 129km long and passes through 23 cities and towns before draining into Massachusetts Bay, terminating at the highly urbanized core of the Boston metropolitan area.

Stream gage measurements are used to estimate 100-year return levels for daily average discharge and surface water elevation; these values and Manning’s n (roughness) reported in the literature are then used to estimate channel depth assuming simplified geometry. This in turn is used to estimate Manning’s n for the hydroflattened water surface, which is then substituted into the 2D model. Finally, 2D flood simulation results are evaluated against US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year inundation extent maps. This is done using four validation metrics: Probability of Detection, False Alarm Ratio, Critical Success Index, and Bias. This provides a simple and computationally efficient calibration and validation methodology for 2D gridded hydrodynamic models in the absence of known channel bathymetry and roughness; while a number of effective approaches have seen widespread use in different data availability and modeling contexts, our simplest possible methodology is generalizable across a broad range of scenarios and watersheds. This can be particularly useful when 2D inundation mapping is called for in interdisciplinary research contexts in which information on the spatiotemporally explicit evolution of floods is required, such as in the simulation of dynamic disruption and recovery of infrastructure systems in urbanized watersheds during extreme precipitation events.

How to cite: Watson, J., Beighley, E., and Ganguly, A.: Simple and efficient calibration and validation of gridded 2D hydrodynamic models using 1D models, stream gage measurements, and inundation extent maps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15300, 2025.

Urban flood risk has surged in recent years due to unsustainable urban development, changes of hydrological processes and frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. Addressing this challenge requires capturing the dynamic interactions between human and natural systems. This study presents an innovative Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) modelling framework which integrates high-performance hydrodynamic and agent-based models to simulate real-time flood-human interactions at high spatial resolution. The framework is enhanced with a reinforcement learning (RL) module to support AI-guided flood risk management, including optimal resource allocation during emergencies.

Applied to the 2015 Desmond flood in the Eden Catchment (UK) and urban flooding in Can Tho City (Vietnam), the CHANS framework demonstrates its capacity to replicate household-level responses and assess flood mitigation strategies, such as early warnings, sandbag distributions, temporary flood defence and mobile pump deployments. Results show that early warnings combined with temporary defences reduced inundation by 30% in Carlisle, saving up to £30 million. RL-guided mobile pump strategies in Can Tho outperformed traditional methods, improving flood mitigation efficiency by up to 4× during post-flooding events.

By incorporating human behaviour, decision-making, and AI optimisation, the CHANS framework provides a robust tool for enhancing flood risk management strategies, contributing to more resilient and adaptive disaster response planning.

How to cite: Qin, H. and Liang, Q.: A high-performance Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) modelling framework for flood risk assessment and emergency management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20729, 2025.

HS5.1 – Water Resources Policy and Management under Uncertainty

EGU25-157 | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Assessment of rainwater resources in urban areas of reception basins of South-to-North Water Diversion Project under climate change. 

Yuxing Li, Weiwei Shao, Xin Su, Jiahong Liu, and Zhiyong Yang

The forecasting of future stormwater resources serves a pivotal role in gauging the potential effects of stormwater utilization on natural and societal systems. However, there has been limited research on the effect of climate change on future rainwater resources, particularly for large-scale water diversion projects. Based on global climate model data, future land use data and SCS-CN (soil conservation service curve number) model, this study proposed a calculation method of rainwater resources under different SSP scenarios in the future period, and carried out a case study on the cities in the receiving area of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). The results show that there will be an increase in the amount of rainfall in the future compared to 2020.The most significant increase in rainwater resources occurs in urban reception areas of the Eastern Route Project (ERP). However, according to future projections, the quantity of rainwater resources in the study area decreases from south to north. The spatial distribution of rainwater resources demonstrates a nearly normal distribution in the eastern and western routes and a bimodal distribution in the Central Route Project (CRP). In the context of global climate change, the increase in rainfall resources in the CRP may be beneficial for the establishment and implementation of the SNWDP. This study can provide a reference for analysing the uncertainty of rainwater resources in the future period under climate change. It can also provide guidance for the construction and develop scheduling schemes of the SNWDP, a world-class water diversion project.

How to cite: Li, Y., Shao, W., Su, X., Liu, J., and Yang, Z.: Assessment of rainwater resources in urban areas of reception basins of South-to-North Water Diversion Project under climate change., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-157, 2025.

Due to the impact of global climate change and land use changes, the spatiotemporal distribution and water cycle processes of watershed water resources are affected. In order to sustainably manage watershed water resources, it is necessary to accurately assess the available water volume to meet the coordinated management of the watershed’s socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem. The amount of Bluewater resources (BW) is closely related to the amount of Greenwater resources (GW). BW is directly related to human consumption in the socio-economic subsystem, while GW is used to maintain the health of the ecosystem. A method called the integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) was developed to evaluate adaptive strategies for dealing with the combined effects of climate change and land-use changes. ISOMS not only predicts future hydrological trends under varying environmental conditions but also generates comprehensive risk management plans that incorporate different types of uncertainties, including random and fuzzy factors. The Copula function is introduced to handle the interaction between available BW and available GW. The results showed that: (i) uncertainties in the hydrologic system could result in alterations to the distribution of water resources; (ii) system benefits are, to some extent, affected by land use change and climate change; (iii) the shortage of BW is affected by the level of risk, and the joint risk increases, resulting in an increase in water scarcity; (iv) the planned annual agricultural water consumption is the highest, followed by domestic water consumption, and industrial water consumption is the lowest. Through the results of the model operation, the joint risk assessment and adaptive management of BW and GW in the East River Basin (ERB) under changing environments, as well as the BW allocation plan, are obtained to provide support for scientific and reasonable resource collaborative decision-making and promote the synchronized advancement of the socio-economic subsystem and ecoenvironment subsystem in the ERB.

How to cite: Li, Y.: An integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of blue water and green water under changing environmental conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1743, 2025.

In this study, we introduce a novel stochastic exploratory modeling framework to investigate how scenarios conditioned on the Late Renaissance Megadrought and plausible climate changes yield high consequence impacts that propagate throughout California’s complex water system. California has experienced significant cycles of drought extremes over the last century but these extremes do not fully encompass the variability that exists in the paleo record. Moreover, climate change is projected to make California's drought extremes more severe and frequent. The ultimate impacts to system users will be shaped by how climate change co-evolves with natural climate variability and the system’s complex institutional framework that governs water deliveries throughout the state.

This study utilizes a stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree-ring based weather regime dynamics, to develop a large ensemble of high-resolution, daily weather sequences that capture the extreme drought conditions associated with the Late Renaissance Megadrought (1550-1580 CE). Plausible regional climate changes are superimposed on the weather sequences and then used to force hydrologic models of twelve watersheds that drain into key system reservoirs. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used to force the California Food-Energy-Water System model (CALFEWS), which simulates water storage and conveyance throughout California, to create a stress testing framework that explores user vulnerabilities under megadrought and climate change conditions.

Our results demonstrate that persistent low inflows associated with the megadrought lead to critically low storages at key reservoirs, multi-year periods of curtailed water deliveries, and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets for junior and senior water rights holders. When plausible climate changes are considered, there is an increased frequency of reservoir levels hitting dead pool and complete curtailment of water deliveries. To our knowledge, this is the first stress testing framework that explores the asymmetries in risk faced by California’s two main water projects.

 

How to cite: Reed, P., Gupta, R., and Steinschneider, S.: Stress Testing California's Water System using an Exploratory Ensemble Analysis Conditioned on the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2897, 2025.

EGU25-2994 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Dynamic System Modeling for Achieving Net-Zero Water Building Design 

Chuan-Ming Wei and Ching-Pin Tung

Buildings consume substantial volumes of water during their lifecycle, with the operating phase generally accounting for a significant proportion of total water consumption. Achieving net-zero water buildings is crucial for addressing water sustainability in the built environment. The design of net-zero water buildings is guided by three primary objectives: minimizing total water consumption, maximizing the use of alternative water sources, and reducing wastewater discharge while returning water to its original source. Despite growing interest in this concept, models and frameworks for assessing building water consumption patterns remain insufficient, particularly in addressing the influence of climate change scenarios. This study aims to develop a dynamic system model for building water management, integrating water consumption, alternative water solutions, and return water strategies. The model will also incorporate future climate scenarios to simulate water use under changing environmental conditions, supporting long-term planning and providing design strategies to help architects and engineers integrate net-zero water principles into building projects. The methodology follows a systematic approach. First, the building water model framework is established by identifying and defining key components and variables that influence water use. These elements include water sources (inputs), storage systems, demand patterns, wastewater outputs, and options for alternative and return water solutions, such as rainwater harvesting and greywater recycling. Second, climate scenario simulations are created to assess the impact of climate change on water demand and the availability of alternative water sources. Finally, a dynamic system model is developed using Vensim software to simulate various water use scenarios under different climatic conditions and operational strategies. The expected outcome of this research can serve as a practical tool for building designers, engineers, and decision-makers. The model will provide valuable insights into effective water resource management strategies and support the design of buildings that achieve net-zero water. By integrating dynamic system modeling with sustainable design practices, this research advances net-zero water buildings, paving the way for water-efficient and sustainable urban environments.

How to cite: Wei, C.-M. and Tung, C.-P.: Dynamic System Modeling for Achieving Net-Zero Water Building Design, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2994, 2025.

EGU25-3003 | Orals | HS5.1.1

Inequities in Water Access: Challenges of an Emerging Indian Megacity 

Steven Gorelick, Ankun Wang, Christian Klassert, Raphael Karutz, Yuanzao Zhu, Mikhail Smilovic, Taher Kahil, Peter Burek, Heinrich Zozmann, Bernd Klauer, Karin Kueblboeck, Anujlu Jain Figueroa, Yoshihide Wada, and Rosamond Naylor

Pune, near Mumbai, is India’s is 9th most populated city. As an emerging megacity, Pune is projected to grow from 7.4 to 11.4 million residents by 2050. At that time, a two-year drought under moderate climate change would lead to extraordinary water supply challenges, especially for the urban poor. Without policy interventions by mid-century, the low-income urban population will be unduly affected by water shortages as indicated by a water supply Gini coefficient exceeding 0.4. This inequity occurs as low-income households experience unaffordable water costs (10%-15% of income), and most receive <40 liters per capita per day, typically lasting for over >6 continuous months. Using a coupled human-natural systems model, we explored various measures aimed at alleviating this catastrophe. While many actions are shown to be ineffective, a comprehensive suite of supply-side and demand-side interventions can reduce inequity, cutting the future Gini coefficient in half, and reducing water expenditures from 15% to 5% of income.  The single most effective action comes from a water-market structure that enables surrounding agricultural groundwater to be pumped and provided to the city during drought periods. However, further measures are needed to secure this expensive water for the urban poor, as it can be readily captured by wealthy urban households.

How to cite: Gorelick, S., Wang, A., Klassert, C., Karutz, R., Zhu, Y., Smilovic, M., Kahil, T., Burek, P., Zozmann, H., Klauer, B., Kueblboeck, K., Jain Figueroa, A., Wada, Y., and Naylor, R.: Inequities in Water Access: Challenges of an Emerging Indian Megacity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3003, 2025.

EGU25-7232 | Orals | HS5.1.1

Evaluating Streamflow Forecasts in Hydro-Dominated Power Systems 

Stefano Galelli, Phumthep Bunnak, Hisham Eldardiry, and Rachel Koh

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are a chief tool that enables operators of water-energy systems to deal with uncertainty in future hydro-meteorological conditions. However, our understanding of the actual potential, or value, of streamflow forecasts remains myopic: this is because their value is typically assessed by considering metrics related to hydropower availability, thus overlooking the role played by hydropower dams within the power grid. With the aim of understanding how the value of streamflow forecasts penetrates through the power grid, we developed a coupled-water energy model that is subject to reservoir inflow forecasts with different levels of predictive performance. We implement the modelling framework on real-world case studies in Southeast Asia, where power supply largely relies on hydropower, coal, gas, and cross-border power trading. In particular, we evaluate the forecast value in terms of metrics selected from both reservoir and power systems, including available and dispatched hydropower, power production costs, CO2 emissions, and transmission line congestion. Through this framework, we demonstrate that streamflow forecasts can positively impact the operations of hydro-dominated power systems, especially during the transition from wet to dry seasons. Moreover, we show that the value largely varies with the specific metric of performance at hand as well as the level of operational integration between water and power systems.

How to cite: Galelli, S., Bunnak, P., Eldardiry, H., and Koh, R.: Evaluating Streamflow Forecasts in Hydro-Dominated Power Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7232, 2025.

EGU25-8634 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Impacts of Risk Aversion on Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations for Managed Aquifer Recharge 

Haoling Chen and Xiaogang He

Increasing stress on water availability, driven by rising water demand and climate variability, presents a global challenge. By leveraging advanced ensemble streamflow forecasts and conjunctive management, reoperating existing dams with Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations coupled with Managed Aquifer Recharge (FIRO-MAR) offers a cost-effective strategy to achieve long-term water sustainability. However, the inherent uncertainty in streamflow forecasts introduces associated risks, necessitating consideration of risk perception respective to the forecast uncertainties in real-world operation decisions. Here, we explore to what extent the value of forecasts in FIRO-MAR is sensitive to operators’ risk aversion levels, which can help us better identify specific risk aversion levels that limit the use of forecasts. We develop a multi-objective reservoir model integrated with downstream groundwater conjunctive use to support additional groundwater recharge purposes. We conduct historical (1975-2014) and future (2055-2099) simulations for 1183 flood control reservoirs worldwide with three reservoir operation schemes: a baseline operation, a MAR operation that incorporates conjunctive use, and a FIRO-MAR operation that further employs inflow forecasts. River discharge reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are used to inform operation policies under varying drought risk aversion levels, represented by selected forecast ensemble quantiles. Our results reveal trade-offs between groundwater recharge and non-recharge objectives, such as hydropower generation, while highlighting synergies in water supply through conjunctive management. Under perfect forecasts, FIRO-MAR can boost the global potential of rechargeable water by approximately 14% compared to MAR alone. However, operational forecast uncertainties diminish these gains variably across regions, influenced by reservoir characteristics and background climate. Notably, forecasts prove to be more valuable for risk-averse operators, though this relationship is constrained by forecast skill and reservoir-specific factors such as inflow-to-storage ratios. Our findings elucidate how operators’ risk attitudes influence the strategic use of forecasts in supporting MAR, offering crucial insights for FIRO-MAR implementations.

How to cite: Chen, H. and He, X.: Impacts of Risk Aversion on Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations for Managed Aquifer Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8634, 2025.

EGU25-9560 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

A Risk Assessment Approach to Drinking Water Safety: Integrating EU Water Policy Principles in Estonia 

Marlen Hunt, Joonas Pärn, Madis Osjamets, Elina Kuusma, Valle Raidla, Liina Hints, and Andres Marandi

Ensuring safe and sustainable drinking water supplies is a global challenge, particularly in regions reliant on groundwater, where contamination risks are increasing due to human activities. In Estonia, groundwater provides most of the drinking water supply, yet contamination from agriculture, and industry poses significant risks. To address these challenges, frameworks aligned with the EU Water Framework Directive are needed to identify vulnerabilities for groundwater bodies and implement targeted risk management strategies.

Static protection zones have traditionally safeguarded groundwater, but dynamic, data-driven approaches better manage risks by understanding catchment areas and contamination pathways. This study introduces a comprehensive risk assessment methodology designed specifically for Estonia's hydrogeological conditions, focusing on contamination risks associated with drinking water abstraction areas.

Using hydrodynamic modeling (MODFLOW-6) and GIS tools, groundwater flow was calculated to 28-year period to identify catchment areas and link contamination sources with indicators and substances specified in regulations. Conceptual models were developed to help water operators describe the natural chemical composition of drinking water sources and the dynamic characteristics of catchment areas during risk assessments.

The methodology was validated across diverse hydrogeological settings in Estonia. Results show that integrating advanced modeling with stakeholder-driven tools significantly improves the accuracy of risk assessments compared to static approaches. This framework enables targeted management strategies to reduce contamination risks and effectively protect drinking water quality.

By aligning with EU water policies and providing user-friendly tools, this approach offers a scalable solution for similar groundwater challenges elsewhere. Empowering stakeholders ensures long-term water resource protection and sustainable governance.

How to cite: Hunt, M., Pärn, J., Osjamets, M., Kuusma, E., Raidla, V., Hints, L., and Marandi, A.: A Risk Assessment Approach to Drinking Water Safety: Integrating EU Water Policy Principles in Estonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9560, 2025.

EGU25-9715 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Water resources allocation in a transregional river based on a dynamic Rubinstein Bargaining Model 

jisi fu, tong ding, yong zheng, and zhongzheng he

The artificial division of administrate regions makes the same river flow through different administrative regions, and water conflicts appear when water resources are insufficient to meet the demands claimed by stakeholders along the transregional rivers. Transregional water resources allocation has become an important means to solve transregional water conflicts. The Rubinstein bargaining model has been successfully applied in solving water conflicts due to its ability to reflect the bargaining power of various stakeholders. However, the above mentioned Rubinstein bargaining model treats the discount factors of various stakeholders with a single fixed value, ignoring the impact of dynamic changes in the discount factor the uncertainty of water resources allocation results caused by the unavoidable incoming water forecast error, which may lead to the imbalance of water resources supply and demand in the actual water resources allocation. this paper proposes a multi-agent Rubinstein bargaining water resource allocation model that considers the forecast error based on the dynamic change of the discount factor. Firstly, This paper establishes a Rubinstein bargaining stochastic model considering the dynamic change of the discount factor and the error of the incoming water forecast; secondly, this paper analyzes the impact of the bargaining rounds, the degree of deviation, the adjustment coefficients on the discount factor, and carries out a comparative study on the Rubinstein bargaining model based on the dynamic and the fixed-value discount factor; Then, this paper investigates the uncertainty of various stakeholder allocation results and the response regularity to the total water resource uncertainty. Finally, seven administrative regions in the Ganjiang River Basin of China were selected as the research subjects. The results show the following: (a) compare with Rubinstein bargaining model based on fixed discount factor, the proposed model based on dynamic discount factor can advance the negotiation round, lower the negotiation, and better balance the economic and social development level among various stakeholders. (b) the water allocated to the seven regions has a normal distribution when inflow forecasting error obeys the normal distribution. (c) The mean and standard deviation of the allocation results have a good relationship with the mean and standard deviation of forecast water resource, thus aiding the stakeholders in making decisions and improving the practical value of the method.

How to cite: fu, J., ding, T., zheng, Y., and he, Z.: Water resources allocation in a transregional river based on a dynamic Rubinstein Bargaining Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9715, 2025.

EGU25-10566 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Decision support for optimal allocation of water resources in arid inland river basin 

Fan Zhang and Peixi Tang

An integrated framework was developed for supporting water resource allocation in arid inland river basin, focusing on the Heihe River Basin in northwest China. The research addresses the challenge of balancing food security and ecological sustainability under water scarcity. A multi-scale, multi-objective optimization model is proposed to improve water use efficiency and ecosystem resilience while maintaining agricultural productivity. Key components include ecological quality assessment using remote sensing, spatial evapotranspiration estimation, and crop planting structure optimization. The model integrates ecological, water, and food security objectives, showing significant improvements in crop suitability, irrigation efficiency, and downstream ecological health. Then, a decision support system (DSS) is developed to operationalize the framework, incorporating interval, fuzzy, and stochastic programming to address uncertainties and complexities in basin. The DSS provides practical water allocation solutions at regional, irrigation district, and farmland scales, promoting sustainable water use and ecological balance. This research offers a robust approach to managing water resources in arid regions, with implications for addressing climate change and ecological degradation. The findings are relevant for policymakers and stakeholders working toward sustainable development in water-scarce environments. This study contributes to advancements in hydrology, ecosystem science, and water resource management under global environmental change.

How to cite: Zhang, F. and Tang, P.: Decision support for optimal allocation of water resources in arid inland river basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10566, 2025.

This research builds on findings presented at AGU 2024, focusing on “Climate Change Adaptation with Low Impact Development Measures: Assessing the Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Rainwater Harvesting Systems at Microscale in Barcelona.” It evaluates the effectiveness of Low Impact Development (LID) practices in stormwater management and ecosystem service provision, addressing critical knowledge gaps in life cycle impacts and economic feasibility.

The study aims to: a) compare environmental indicators, b) identify key factors influencing these indicators, c) propose management solutions to reduce environmental impacts using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and d) assess the economic benefits of LID practices in terms of reduced long-term revenue needs for stormwater management and lower operational and maintenance costs for current and future infrastructure.

The LCA method evaluates the ecological impacts of three LID strategies: a) Bio-Retention Cells, b) Rain Gardens, and c) Infiltration Trenches. Assessed impacts include global warming potential, ozone depletion, acidification, eutrophication, smog formation, resource depletion, ecotoxicity, and implications for human health. The analysis employs SimaPro software and the CML-IA baseline 3.01/EU25 model, with Monte Carlo analysis ensuring robust results.

This perspective underscores the need to integrate LID practices into urban planning to mitigate environmental impacts associated with stormwater runoff. By combining a life-cycle perspective with advanced analytical tools, it provides actionable insights for sustainable stormwater management and urban resilience. Preliminary findings suggest significant cost savings (15–80%) compared to conventional stormwater management approaches, primarily due to reduced grading, paving, and landscaping costs.

How to cite: Ramezankhani, A., Niakan, S., and D’Alessandro, F.: Evaluating the Environmental and Economic Benefits of Low Impact Development Practices: A Life Cycle Assessment Approach for Stormwater Management in Barcelona, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11673, 2025.

EGU25-11677 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

System dynamics modelling as discussion support tool for upscaling subsurface irrigation 

Janine A. de Wit, Marjolein van Huijgevoort, Jos van Dam, and Ruud Bartholomeus

Fresh water is needed worldwide for agricultural and economic sectors, but also for nature. However, the water demand continues to increase due to economic growth, urbanization and increased food production, while water availability decreases. Thereby, weather extremes are expected to increase and occur more frequently. As a result, there is an increased mismatch between water demand and water supply. Historically, Dutch agricultural fields were drained to remove water in wet periods. Nowadays, drainage systems are increasingly being modified to controlled drainage with subirrigation (CDSI) systems to i) discharge water when needed and ii) retain water and iii) recharge water when possible. However, the implementation of CDSI on a local scale alters several water balance components. CDSI positively affects transpiration for crop growth, increases drainage to the surface water and increases downward seepage, i.e. groundwater recharge. However, CDSI also requires surface water, which is not infinitely available. It is, therefore, important for regional water management authorities to understand how the field scale measure CDSI propagates through the regional water system in order to estimate if sufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI to other fields.

A system dynamics model (SDM) approach is used to get insight into the hydrological effects of upscaling CDSI. SDM’s are widely used to understand non-linear behavior of complex systems with feedback-driven components in order to make policy decisions for example. Our SDM is a simple, but comprehensive model based on four field experiments conducted in the Netherlands and a detailed calibrated Soil, Water, Atmosphere and Plant (SWAP) model. The results show that the SDM takes account of different feedback loops that determine the possibilities of upscaling CDSI. This includes an increase in drainage to the ditch, but at the same time, subirrigation lowers the ditch level, which in turn reduces drainage to the ditch. The results further show 3 CDSI possibilities: i) sufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI to 20 % of the area, ii) sufficient surface water is available, but surface water levels decline when scaling up CDSI between 20 – 30 %, iii) insufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI between 30 – 100 % as the surface water runs dry. In the latter case, hydrological characteristics (regional surface water inflow, regional weir height and minimal surface water level) can be adapted to increase the regional water availability and therefore allow further CDSI upscaling. We show that a SDM is a useful method for an initial design of how a local measure affects the regional water management, which gives the regional management authority insight in the hydrological effects of upscaling measures and therefore supports the conversations between policy makers and stakeholders (e.g. farmers).

How to cite: de Wit, J. A., van Huijgevoort, M., van Dam, J., and Bartholomeus, R.: System dynamics modelling as discussion support tool for upscaling subsurface irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11677, 2025.

EGU25-12729 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Developing Blue-Green Infrastructure: Advantages and Challenges Through Natural Capital, Ecosystem Services, and Machine Learning 

Gabriel Silva, Marcos Benso, Pedro Silva, André Ballarin, Nancy Doubleday, Maarten Krol, Leonor Patricia Morellato, and Eduardo Mendiondo

Addressing techniques on water resources towards sustainability and resilient cities relies on mechanisms that create conditions to foster the initial natural conditions and reduce the gap between human development and environmental necessity. Blue-green infrastructure (BGI) has emerged as a transformative solution for water adaptation, offering ecological, social, and economic benefits over gray infrastructure. Inspirated by natural processes, BGI not only restores environmental equilibrium but also enhances its ecosystem services, such as flood mitigation, water quality improvement, and urban cooling. Adopting blue-green infrastructure not only restores the natural conditions for water resources but also allows the recovery of the natural capital assets – the stock of natural resources – and its ecosystem services. These natural capital’s assets provide ecosystem services that benefit humans and their wellbeing, such as cleaning water, climate regulation, carbon sequestration, pollination, and water availability. However, the comprehension of geospatial indicators and conditions that influence the ecosystem services is a handful knowledge that leads to the implementation of blue-green technologies for water resources management. In a global warming context, characterized by more frequent and severe extreme events, such as floods and droughts, more adaptative and resilient infrastructure for water resources management is required, allowing an interconnected solution that encompass several parts of the society pursuing sustainability and benefit to human and environment. Meanwhile, the advancement in machine learning is also a promising mechanism that can be applied to water resources to handle prominent problems, offering improved decision support systems and often outperforming traditional models. Furthermore, the machine learning algorithms have been successfully used for integrated management of river-reservoir systems and real-time control of sewer systems. Hence, this research aims to develop a machine learning model to assess the impact of various spatial indicators on water ecosystem services. Initially, a random forest analysis is being undertaken to measure the correlation between several spatial indicators (or drivers) and ecosystem services. Some of the spatial indicators are land use, biome, precipitation, evapotranspiration, urbanization, etc. The ecosystem services evaluated in this study are based on the Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) 6 (water quantity and flow regulation) and 9 (hazard regulation), from Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). This methodology will be applied to several continental basins worldwide, encompassing diverse conditions. Finally, this approach aims to quantify the influence of key drivers on water resources and guide decision-makers in adopting blue-green infrastructure. By doing so, it seeks to enhance ecosystem services, benefiting both society and the environment.

How to cite: Silva, G., Benso, M., Silva, P., Ballarin, A., Doubleday, N., Krol, M., Morellato, L. P., and Mendiondo, E.: Developing Blue-Green Infrastructure: Advantages and Challenges Through Natural Capital, Ecosystem Services, and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12729, 2025.

EGU25-13068 | Orals | HS5.1.1

Estimating the potential of index-based insurances for irrigated agriculture in climate change adaptation 

Hector Macian-Sorribes, Miguel Angel Valenzuela-Mahecha, David de León Pérez, Juan Manuel Carricondo-Anton, Alberto Garcia-Prats, Felix Frances-Garcia, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Although crop drought insurances are quite developed and applied in rainfed crops, their extension to irrigated crops is still under development. Among the different options existing, index-based insurances appear as a promising alternative. However, their application in complex water resource systems is hindered by the fact that well-known indicators and indices do not guarantee a comprehensive evaluation of the state of the system. In this regard, Spanish river basins represent an exception, since all of them use systems of indicators and indices that summarize their status on a single metric that condenses meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological variables. These indices, as well as their formulations, are published in the Water Resource Management Plans of all Spanish river basins, facilitating their reproduction. Despite some recent research has defined index insurance schemes based on them, their evaluation in a climate change context is still missing.

This study estimates the performance of several index-based insurance schemes for irrigated agriculture under a climate change context. To this end, hydroeconomic modelling is combined with a reproduction of the official Scarcity State Index (in Spanish Indice de Estado de Escasez, IES) in climate change scenarios. The Jucar river system in Spain is used as case study. In particular, insurances were built for the lower basin crops (citrus trees). Climate projections come from CMIP6 are employed to force a fully distributed eco-hydrological model to provide hydrological projections (TETIS) and crop modelling to infer future crop water needs (AQUACROP for herbaceous crops and FAO56 combined with a soil water balance model for citrus tree crops). Results from both models are then used to input the hydroeconomic model, which takes into account the current operating rules of the system. Afterwards, the results obtained by this model, together with the ones from the eco-hydrological model and the climate change projections, are combined to reproduce the IES. Finally, index insurance schemes are applied to estimate fair risk premiums, maximum compensations and deductible franchises that would be paid by and to farmers if insurances were purchased. Two insurance schemes were analysed: 1-year insurance characterized by a premium, a deductible franchise and an index trigger; and a 2-year multi-annual contract. The evaluation is done comparing the farmers’ economic balance without and with insurances, analysing the cumulative distribution of net benefits. This analysis, performed for all climate change scenarios, assess which insurance configuration and under which scenarios contribute to the economic adaptation of farmers to climate change.

Acknowledgements:

This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the GoNEXUS project (grant agreement No 101003722), and from the RETOUCH NEXUS project, under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101086522.

How to cite: Macian-Sorribes, H., Valenzuela-Mahecha, M. A., de León Pérez, D., Carricondo-Anton, J. M., Garcia-Prats, A., Frances-Garcia, F., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Estimating the potential of index-based insurances for irrigated agriculture in climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13068, 2025.

EGU25-14213 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Development of a lifespan prediction model for river infrastructure using performance degradation curves 

Seoyoung Kim, Jiyeon Park, Gayoung Lee, Sangbeom Jang, and Ju-Young Shin

A large number of river infrastructure facilities in South Korea have been in operation for over 30 years since their completion, leading to increased aging of these structures. Aging infrastructure not only poses economic risks but also has the potential to threaten public safety. Managing the performance of these facilities through regular maintenance is a critical policy direction for preventing infrastructure-related accidents and promoting economic vitality. This study aims to develop a performance degradation prediction model for river infrastructure facilities, including levees and sluice gates, using safety grades as key indicators. Among the collected visual inspection data, only those with usable safety grades were selected for model development. Given that the structural components of these facilities exhibit diverse characteristics, performance degradation prediction models were applied to individual components to estimate their respective lifespans. The analysis focused primarily on culverts, which exhibited the highest number of defects among various components. The ultimate goal is to predict the overall lifespan of the facilities based on the performance degradation curves of their individual components. This current study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of regular maintenance on extending the lifespan of river infrastructure facilities.

How to cite: Kim, S., Park, J., Lee, G., Jang, S., and Shin, J.-Y.: Development of a lifespan prediction model for river infrastructure using performance degradation curves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14213, 2025.

EGU25-14284 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Shared Challenges, Divergent Solutions: Groundwater Management in California and Catalonia 

Aneesa Gomez-Cervantes, Ethan Yan, Leland Scantlebury, Rebecca Prentice, Kirsten Ondris, Brian Magee, Ryan van der Heijden, Kate Grobowsky, Adriana Chavez, Andrew Archer, Helen Dahlke, Thomas Harter, Sarah Yarnell, and Nicholas Pinter

Sustainable groundwater management is critical in semi-arid regions, where competing demands from agricultural, urban, and industrial sectors strain water resources. California and Catalonia share a Mediterranean climate, where the peak growing season coincides with the driest months, necessitating significant reliance on stored water for irrigating agriculture. Here, we examine the science-policy interface in groundwater management by comparing Catalonia, Spain, and California's Central Valley—regions possessing similar climatic pressures but having developed distinct regulatory frameworks under differing hydrogeological contexts.

California's Central Valley is characterized by a vast, deep sedimentary aquifer system that supports the largest agricultural economy in the United States. However, over-extraction has led to domestic and agricultural wells running dry, severe land subsidence, and widespread nitrate contamination. In contrast, Catalonia's aquifers are generally smaller, shallower, and are more susceptible to saltwater intrusion from the ocean. 

In 2014, California passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), representing a shift towards regulated groundwater use. However, the state’s complex water rights system—featuring separate allocation frameworks for groundwater and surface water—combined with the immense scale of the Central Valley Aquifer system, complicates the effective implementation of SGMA and its goal of sustainable groundwater management. Conversely, Catalonia, guided by the EU Water Framework Directive of 2000, has adopted an integrated approach to groundwater and surface water management within a unified framework that emphasizes public supply and sustainability.

We analyze the contrasting approaches of these two regions to explore what each can learn from the other’s management strategies. For California, Catalonia highlights the importance of treating groundwater and surface water as a single, interconnected resource within a unified regulatory framework. This demonstrates how conjunctive water regulation can improve long-term resource sustainability. Conversely, California’s extensive monitoring networks, basin characterization programs, and advancements in data collection offer valuable tools that could enhance Catalonia’s water management efforts. By focusing on these lessons, we aim to underscore how shared insights can inform more effective water governance in distinct hydrogeological and regulatory contexts.

This comparative analysis highlights the critical role of understanding the hydrogeological context in shaping blue diplomacy policies. It underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches, such as leveraging diplomatic tools and scientific expertise to address water security challenges and build resilience to climate extremes in semi-arid regions globally.

How to cite: Gomez-Cervantes, A., Yan, E., Scantlebury, L., Prentice, R., Ondris, K., Magee, B., van der Heijden, R., Grobowsky, K., Chavez, A., Archer, A., Dahlke, H., Harter, T., Yarnell, S., and Pinter, N.: Shared Challenges, Divergent Solutions: Groundwater Management in California and Catalonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14284, 2025.

EGU25-14374 | Orals | HS5.1.1

The flood resource utilization of cascade hydropower stations based on the multi-scenario water level drawdown method 

Jianxia Chang, Zhiqiang Jing, Xuebin Wang, and Xuejiao Meng

In the dual context of global energy shortages and decarbonization, increasing the share of clean energy in the power supply is imperative. Hydropower, as a crucial component of renewable energy, often sees its significant potential for power generation during flood periods overlooked. This study aims to enhance the joint power generation of cascade hydropower stations under different typical flood scenarios. Firstly, a multi-scenario water level drawdown method is proposed, providing strong technical support for hydropower stations to utilize flood resources and generate more clean power. Then, typical flood scenarios are selected that take into account the relationship between the basin's flood characteristics and the critical flows specified in reservoir flood dispatch regulations. Further, a flood resource utilization scheduling framework is developed to investigate the joint power generation benefit of cascade hydropower stations adopting different credible forecast times under various operational periods. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The multi-scenario water level drawdown method can timely lower the reservoir level to the flood control level. (2) Longer credible forecast times don’t always result in better performance, and the appropriate credible forecast time should be selected based on different inflow scenarios to maximize power generation. (3) Through the flood resource utilization scheduling framework, the joint power generation benefit of cascade hydropower stations has increased significantly for 7-1-1 (38.96*104kW·h), 8-3-1 (145.18*104kW·h) and 12-1-1 types flood (351.38*104kW·h).

How to cite: Chang, J., Jing, Z., Wang, X., and Meng, X.: The flood resource utilization of cascade hydropower stations based on the multi-scenario water level drawdown method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14374, 2025.

In a world facing the impact of climate change and increasing demands for water and food, the use of non-conventional water (NCW) resources - can contribute to addressing the water supply-demand gap. Such need is critical in the Mediterranean, a region where water scarcity increases the risk of water and land resources degradation. Yet, the adoption of NCW in the region remains limited. Supporting the implementation of NCW resources requires going beyond an assessment of what is technically feasible (i.e., attainable water yields) and shall include considerations for the social, economic and institutional conditions that stimulate or deter the uptake of these solutions. In this study, we present a methodological framework developed within the AG-WaMED PRIMA S2 project to unpack the multiple dimensions associated with the use, management and regulation of NCW. The methodology combines hydrological and socio-economic modelling, 4 participatory workshops, stakeholder interviews, and multi-level governance assessment. 

Involving stakeholders is crucial to ensure the social acceptability of the proposed solutions and their successful implementation. In AG-WaMED, the participatory approach was based on the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) Roadmap©TM. The methodology is applied in four Mediterranean study areas (Living Labs, LL) in Italy, Spain, Egypt and a transboundary LL between Tunisia and Algeria.

Four workshops were held in each of the four LL. In the first one, the LL was established and the main challenges and solutions related to the NCW were assessed. Based on the outputs, specific models were developed and presented in the second participatory workshop to obtain feedback on potential further analyses. While technical aspects are important, most of the stakeholders’ concerns regard governance and legal aspects. Hence, we dedicated the third participatory workshop to the discussion of the draft of an integrated watershed management plan and improved it according to the feedback received. Finally, in the fourth workshop, we wrap up the activities and try to ensure their continuity in the future. 

The whole approach is inspired and embedded into the RRI Roadmap©TM, which is an effective guide to frame the activities of such a complex project. Limitations and further improvements are also discussed. The lessons learned within the co-production approach applied in AG-WaMED project, framed in the RRI Roadmap, exemplifies how it is possible to actively involve stakeholders in sustainable water management.   

 

This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA), an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021].

The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Copyright Notice: The RRI Roadmap©TM methodology and its tools or portions of it are the ownership of XPRO Consulting Limited, Cyprus. All Rights Reserved.

How to cite: Bresci, E. and the AG-WaMED team: Managing unconventional water resources in the Mediterranean: insights from a participatory approach in four Living Labs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16023, 2025.

EGU25-17152 | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

What can water satellite accounts tell us about economic resilience to climate change? 

Scott J. McGrane, Maria Clemens, Gioele Figus, Saba Al Hosni, and Christopher White

Understanding the economic consequences of climate change is a wicked problem that is multifaceted, and one that currently focuses primarily on damages as a consequence of hazard events (e.g., droughts, floods, wildfires, and storm events). Concomitantly, there is a pressing need to better understand how longer-term changes to economic inputs may have consequences for future outputs and productivity when particular resources become increasingly scarce as a consequence of environmental changes. A key part of this narrative is managing water resources adequately to ensure future changes in scarcity and water availability do not result in productivity shocks to water-intensive sectors. In order to determine these impacts, a detailed understanding of the role of water in an economy is essential to flag sectors most vulnerable to input shocks such as a loss of available resource. Here, we present a unique dataset from Scotland, where a full economic mapping of water consumption across all non-domestic premises has been undertaken to determine water multipliers per unit of output for all sectors of the Scottish economy. This accountancy approach combines two datasets that have enabled us to map the full water demand from all sectors via both piped water supply, and abstraction from the natural environment, to gain a comprehensive understanding of Scotland’s economic water demand. Though not a water stressed country, increasing periods of dry weather and near-misses with droughts are having periodical effects on water availability and resultant impacts for economic output. This research represents a step in creating baseline understanding of the criticality of water in Scotland, and considers what steps can be taken to alleviate future pressures as a consequence of projected climate changes across the country. 

How to cite: McGrane, S. J., Clemens, M., Figus, G., Al Hosni, S., and White, C.: What can water satellite accounts tell us about economic resilience to climate change?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17152, 2025.

EGU25-18607 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.1

Assessment and strategies for water supply security risks in the estuarine city Shanghai under normalized extreme climate conditions 

Heshan Fan, Heqin Cheng, Wei Chen, Ruiqing Liu, Fengnian Zhou, Xin Hu, and Xianlin Zhang

Facing the escalation of extreme climate events, estuarine delta cities like Shanghai grapple with significant water supply challenges. This study employs system dynamics and dynamic adaptive policy pathways to assess Shanghai's water supply security risks and responsive strategies in 2022–2050, amidst extreme climate conditions. Utilizing data from 2000 to 2021, we constructed a system dynamics model to predict future water demand under various development modes. Focusing on the unusual 2022 drought in the Yangtze River Basin, we simulated 15 scenarios, including economy, population, water efficiency, and reservoir levels, to identify the extent and timing of potential water supply risks, then proposed pertinent dynamic adaptive strategies to address them. Our findings suggest that the 2022 drought significantly reduced Shanghai's water supply capacity, leading to a notable deficit. Under scenarios of accelerated economic growth, water supply security risks are heightened, with projections indicating a reduction of days of supply available to merely 33–67 days, and escalating water shortage amount to 592–896 million m3 by 2050. Short-to-medium-term recommendations include optimizing both local and transit water resources, strengthening emergency water reserves, enhancing water use efficiency, and maintaining stable reservoir water levels. For the long term, expanding water storage infrastructure and promoting integrated water resource management within the Yangtze River Delta is key to establishing a resilient and diversified water supply system, effectively mitigating future water security risks. This study provides a scientific basis and reference for the sustainable management of water resources in estuarine cities confronting normalized extreme climate conditions. It offers valuable insights for policymakers and actionable suggestions for urban planners.

How to cite: Fan, H., Cheng, H., Chen, W., Liu, R., Zhou, F., Hu, X., and Zhang, X.: Assessment and strategies for water supply security risks in the estuarine city Shanghai under normalized extreme climate conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18607, 2025.

EGU25-18969 | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Reviving traditional water management systems to build resilience to drought in India 

Andrea Momblanch, Riddhi Singh, Sumit Sen, Sanjay K Jain, and Ian Holman

Over the past decade about one-third of India's districts have experienced more than four droughts​​. Even large cities like Delhi and Mumbai experience severe water cuts (the most recent in May-June 2024). In rural areas, droughts cause temporary migration, with the most severe effects being felt by the socio-economically marginalised sections of the rural population. With around 55% of the population relying on agriculture, droughts pose a challenge to both water and food security. Moreover, they have significant economic repercussions, with India's GDP reducing by an estimated 2-5% over the past two decades.

There are ongoing efforts to reduce drought risk in India by enhancing storage capacity through new reservoirs, lift projects for domestic and irrigation use, and improved water management practices. However, challenges such as fluctuating seasonal water availability, governance and other socio-cultural issues impact their effectiveness. Traditional water management systems such as tank cascade systems in Telangana (Cheruvulu), traditional springs (Naula), step wells (Baoli) and village ponds (Pokkali) have evolved over centuries to address the diverse climatic, geographic, and socio-economic conditions across the Indian subcontinent. Recent research recognises the value of traditional water management systems and provides evidence on the increase in water access they bring locally. These systems are being revived in some rural areas with the support of local NGOs but there is a limited reach of these initiatives. The revival of decentralised traditional water management systems and their integration into wider centralised water management systems has a high untapped potential to improve overall system resilience by helping diversify water sources. However, there is a need to demonstrate how these two different scales and approaches to water management can be harmonised at the planning and operation stages, and understand the enablers and barriers to maximise synergies in each specific context.

This contribution will present the findings of interviews and participatory workshops with water managers and local communities in Telangana and Uttarakhand states, complemented with a literature review. The findings identify specific challenges related to drought management, the interface between existing centralised and traditional water management systems, and governance. Effective hybrid centralised-traditional water management systems are proposed as a multi-scale system solution to overcome these challenges. This research contributes to improve drought management practices, enhancing community resilience and contributing to sustainable water resource management in the study areas, with potential transferrable learnings for other regions.

How to cite: Momblanch, A., Singh, R., Sen, S., Jain, S. K., and Holman, I.: Reviving traditional water management systems to build resilience to drought in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18969, 2025.

EGU25-19701 | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

Unlocking Offshore Freshened Groundwater Potential: Assessing Feasibility in EU COST Member Countries 

Hiba Wazaz, Jarrid Tschaikowski, Ariel T. Thomas, and Aaron Micallef

Coastal aquifers, situated at the interface of oceanic and hydrologic systems, provide vital freshwater resources for over one billion people. However, these systems are increasingly stressed due to overexploitation, urbanization, and climate change, necessitating innovative solutions to address freshwater scarcity. Offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) represents a promising yet largely untapped resource, but its technological and economic feasibility remains uncertain. This study focuses on evaluating the feasibility of OFG utilization in EU COST Member countries, considering critical criteria such as water quality and treatment requirements, sustainability and resource longevity, infrastructure and logistics, availability of alternative water sources, and site-specific conditions. A comprehensive database was compiled, integrating OFG occurrences, desalination capacity, oil and gas infrastructure, and seafloor properties. An initial assessment was conducted to evaluate technical feasibility, focusing on the proximity of OFG reservoirs to treatment capacity and existing infrastructure. Key findings indicate that the Adriatic Sea offshore Rimini, Italy offers the highest feasibility for OFG utilization, due to the proximity to desalination facilities and existing offshore platforms. Other regions, including southern Spain and Belgium, warrant further exploration to determine their potential for sustainable OFG exploitation. This study provides a regional feasibility assessment and lays the groundwork for more detailed case studies. By addressing technological and logistical challenges, this research contributes to the broader effort to unlock OFG’s potential as a critical resource in water-stressed regions.

How to cite: Wazaz, H., Tschaikowski, J., Thomas, A. T., and Micallef, A.: Unlocking Offshore Freshened Groundwater Potential: Assessing Feasibility in EU COST Member Countries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19701, 2025.

EGU25-19907 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.1

Techno-economic preliminary evaluation for the possible application of the EU Regulation on wastewater reuse in agriculture: a case-study 

Francesca Mangiagli, Camilla Di Marcantonio, Andrea Martelli, Filiberto Altobelli, and Agostina Chiavola

The pursuit for alternative water sources is crucial to face the increasingly frequent episodes of drought occurring around the world and to promote circular economy, especially in agriculture, one of the major source of water consumption worldwide. EU governance has recognised reclaimed wastewater (RWW) reuse in agriculture as the key strategy to reduce water sources pressure. Indeed, the new European Regulation 741/2020 on water reuse, come into force in 2023, aims to promote RWW reuse in agriculture. It outlines the minimum quality requirements for a safe water reuse and introduces a 'risk assessment' approach, based on “scientific evidence” , to establish additional requirements, especially for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The present study intend to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the possible implementation of the EU Regulation 741/2020 in a selected territory, for the irrigation of edible local crops, assessing the potential reuse of RWW for irrigation, from both the technical and economic points of view. The evaluation was based to the minimum requirements set by the Regulation. Furthermore, the risk assessment due to the presence of selected CECs in the RWW was also conducted. The study was carried in collaboration with) the local Water Service Utility, Acqua Pubblica Sabina (ApS). The strict conjunction with the water utility company provided the needs and issues of the final utilizer, which must be addressed, beside the scientific requirements, to make the RWW reuse technically feasible and sustainable. The selected area for the case study was the Rieti province, in the Lazio region (central Italy), a territory dedicated to agriculture activities with an important economic impact (e.g. olive trees, potatoes and maize).

The study was conducted in several phases. Firstly, the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located in the selected area were classified based upon the main characteristics (such as the treatment capacity, layout, produced water quality) and water quality produced with respect to the classes listed by the EU Regulation. Then, the nutrients and water demand of the crops grown in the same area were compared with the nutrients and water potentially available through the RWW from the WWTPs. Furthermore, a preliminary risk assessment was carried out considering only four selected CECs present in the RWW produced by the WWTPs. Combining the quality requirements set by EU Regulation and the results of the preliminary risk assessment, in the investigated territory, there are 17 WWTPs potentially suitable for the irrigation of maize, only 1 plant for potato and 8 plants for olive.

How to cite: Mangiagli, F., Di Marcantonio, C., Martelli, A., Altobelli, F., and Chiavola, A.: Techno-economic preliminary evaluation for the possible application of the EU Regulation on wastewater reuse in agriculture: a case-study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19907, 2025.

EGU25-20185 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.1

Advancing sustainable agricultural water management in agribusiness systems: a case study of the chtouka plain, morocco 

Chaima Aglagal, Mohammed Hssaisoune, Mohammed El hafyani, and Lhoussaine Bouchaou

The rapid proliferation of plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs) in Morocco’s Souss-Massa region has significantly intensified groundwater depletion, posing severe risks to local water resources and threatening the sustainability of agricultural livelihoods. This study evaluates the evolving water demand driven by agricultural expansion and investigates the role of a desalination plant in mitigating groundwater overexploitation in the Chtouka plain. An integrated methodology combining remote sensing data, CropWat modeling, and field surveys provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future water needs. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning 1990 to 2023 was utilized to monitor the growth of PCGs, employing both object-oriented (OB) and pixel-based (PB) classification techniques. The analysis demonstrated that object-oriented classification yielded a high accuracy of 89.35% and a Cohen’s kappa coefficient of 0.78 in 2023, underscoring its effectiveness in mapping PCG expansion. The analysis revealed greenhouse areas of 11,468 hectares in 2015, 19,474 hectares in 2020, and 20,695 hectares in 2023. Projections based on the quadratic trend estimate the greenhouse area will reach approximately 31,658 hectares by 2050, with annual growth rates of 2.06% (2020–2025) and 1.90% (2025–2030), providing a solid foundation for understanding and planning future expansion. On the other hand, the CropWat model further estimated crop irrigation requirements (CIR) under current and future scenarios, emphasizing the vital role of the desalination plant in reducing reliance on groundwater resources. Initially designed to produce 275,000 m³/day, with 125,000 m³/day allocated for agricultural purposes, the plant currently supplies 200,000 m³/day, amounting to 48.62 million cubic meters (Mm³) annually for irrigation. By 2050, desalination output is projected to reach 80 Mm³/year, covering 60% of total crop irrigation requirements. However, as future demand is forecasted to rise to 73 Mm³/year, additional measures will be necessary to close the water deficit. To address the impending shortfall, the study advocates for the adoption of advanced irrigation techniques, the enforcement of stricter groundwater extraction regulations, and the expansion of desalination infrastructure. Additionally, promoting farmer education and training in sustainable water practices is emphasized as a vital component for long-term resource preservation and agricultural resilience.
Keywords : Sustainable water practices, Desalination plant, Crop irrigation requirement (CIR), Plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs).

How to cite: Aglagal, C., Hssaisoune, M., El hafyani, M., and Bouchaou, L.: Advancing sustainable agricultural water management in agribusiness systems: a case study of the chtouka plain, morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20185, 2025.

EGU25-21833 | Posters on site | HS5.1.1

 Reservoir group operation under uncertainty: A Ruhr case study for low flow conditions with ensemble forecast optimization 

Johanna Schimanski, Bernhard Becker, Gregor Johnen, Fabian Netzel, and Anne Becker

The increasing frequency and duration of droughts due to climate change pose significant challenges to reservoir operators in maintaining a balance between water supply and demand. While ensuring water supply typically requires high reservoir levels to meet consumer demand throughout the year, other objectives such as flood control and maintaining ecological flows require careful management of water releases. Thus, operators need to optimize their operational schedule, which is a challenging task given the uncertainty of weather forecasts and catchment response to precipitation. In addition, this study investigates the application of ensemble optimization using the Northern Reservoir Group of the Ruhrverband in Germany as a case study. Using the RTC-Tools software, two variants of stochastic optimization are compared: cross-scenario optimization and tree-based optimization. A retrospective ensemble forecasting (i.e., hindcast) approach was used using the twelve years with the lowest total runoff from April to October, representing potential drought conditions. The evaluation is based on the operating ratio used by the Ruhrverband, which reflects the accuracy of reservoir control and is already used in practice, underlining the practical relevance of this study. The results show that both methods improve reservoir control under forecast uncertainty; however, tree-based optimization proves to be more suitable for practical application due to its ability to consider decisions at different time steps and its superior performance in ensuring reliable outflows and water supply.  By emphasizing practical applicability, this work creates robust solutions in the face of uncertainty.

How to cite: Schimanski, J., Becker, B., Johnen, G., Netzel, F., and Becker, A.:  Reservoir group operation under uncertainty: A Ruhr case study for low flow conditions with ensemble forecast optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21833, 2025.

EGU25-1246 | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

The role of dams and reservoirs in transforming desiccating endorheic basins 

Milad Aminzadeh, Hannes Nevermann, Mehraneh Seyedan, and Nima Shokri

Water storage infrastructures such as dams and reservoirs are crucial for meeting local water demands, especially in arid and semi-arid regions with varying rainfall patterns and frequent droughts. Notwithstanding the role of human-made reservoirs in stabilizing water supply for agricultural, municipal, and industrial demands (e.g., irrigation, hydropower), identifying their impact on the water balance in endorheic basins, particularly those with shrinking lakes, remains a challenge. Dams and reservoirs disrupt natural inflows thus accelerating lake shrinkage and altering hydrological processes with associated adverse impacts on ecosystem functioning in the basin. We combined satellite remote sensing, bathymetric information, and land and climatic data to quantify the influence of water storage infrastructures on groundwater dynamics and storage variation of shrinking endorheic lakes. Our preliminary findings reveal that among 134 endorheic lakes (>10 km2) worldwide that have experienced a reduction in surface area over the past two decades, nearly one-third have been significantly influenced by the expansion of storage capacity within their basins. We thus quantified the correlations between the expansion of storage capacity and local irrigation and livestock water demands with changes in groundwater levels and lake volume in these basins. These results highlight the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between water storage infrastructures and the long-term sustainability of endorheic basins.

How to cite: Aminzadeh, M., Nevermann, H., Seyedan, M., and Shokri, N.: The role of dams and reservoirs in transforming desiccating endorheic basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1246, 2025.

EGU25-1571 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

Global distribution of small reservoirs and their role in surface water storage 

Sankeerth Govindaiah Narayanaswamy, Milad Aminzadeh, Kaveh Madani, and Nima Shokri

Small on-farm reservoirs play a vital role in sustaining irrigation and livestock water demands, particularly in regions facing acute water scarcity (Aminzadeh et al., 2024). However, comprehensive understanding of their global distribution and contribution to local water budgeting and management remains limited. This research leverages high-resolution satellite data from Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 to develop a global database of small agricultural reservoirs (<0.1 km2) across geographic and climatic zones. Machine learning algorithms are employed to improve the accuracy of reservoir detection from satellite imagery. In addition to mapping the spatial and temporal distribution of these reservoirs, we estimate their storage capacity by correlating surface area and depth metrics. The study enables monitoring of surface water storages across scales thus offering critical insights into the role of small reservoirs in water budgeting and accounting, particularly in water-stressed regions of the world.

Reference

Aminzadeh, M., Friedrich, N., Narayanaswamy, S.G., Madani, K., Shokri, N. (2024). Evaporation loss from small agricultural reservoirs: An overlooked component of water accounting, Earth’s Future, 12, e2023EF004050, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004050.

How to cite: Govindaiah Narayanaswamy, S., Aminzadeh, M., Madani, K., and Shokri, N.: Global distribution of small reservoirs and their role in surface water storage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1571, 2025.

The increased frequency of drought due to climate change has further underscored the need for sustainable water resources management, not only in water-limited but also in water-rich areas. In particular, the 2017-2020 drought years in Germany resulted in significant agricultural losses, prompting investigation of additional ways of supplementing irrigation demand. Here, we evaluate the potential of selected flood reservoirs in Southern Germany to supplement agriculture. Reservoir operation is modeled and modified to store water during high flow periods without impacting its original flood impounding function. The stored water is used to supply the agricultural irrigation demand within a radius from the main dam structure during the years 2017-2020. Agricultural irrigation demand is calculated on a daily scale using the FAO-56 method with crop maps derived from remote sensing. Preliminary results related to the efficacy of this strategy will be discussed and will provide insights onto the potential of repurposed flood reservoirs on sustainable water resources management.

How to cite: Ho, S. and Ehret, U.: Assessing the potential ability of repurposed small flood reservoirs to supply local agricultural irrigation demand in Southern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4401, 2025.

Reservoir operations primarily serve three functions: water supply, power generation, and flood control. With the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change, re-evaluating storage capacity, particularly flood control volume, has become essential to optimizing multi-objective operations. This study aims to simulate changes in flood control capacities, develop an optimal operation model, and analyze trade-offs among these objectives to assess their impact on reservoir performance. The study is divided into three phases. First, the multi-objective Standard Operating Policy (SOP), based on the water mass balance equation, simulates over 30 years of historical data to benchmark water supply, power generation, and flood control. The flood control capacity is then utilized to adjust reservoir water levels within this framework. Second, the model assesses the reliability of water supply and power generation while flood risk serves as a performance metric for flood control operations. Finally, quantitative results for the three objectives are expressed in monetary terms to evaluate the impacts of flood control capacity on reservoir operations and analyze trade-offs. Results suggest that under normal conditions, raising water levels to utilize flood control storage can enhance water supply and power generation benefits while maintaining manageable flood risk. However, during critical conditions, preserving flood control capacity remains essential to mitigate potential flooding and prevent disasters. By investigating changes in reservoir operations under climate change, this study highlights how adjusting water levels influences the trade-offs and benefits of each objective. Using simulations and economic value quantification, it provides a framework for maximizing reservoir benefits under varying scenarios.

How to cite: Chen, P. C. and You, J.-Y.: Assessing Dam Operations under High Water Levels by Reducing Flood Control Volume for Water Supply, Power Generation, and Flood Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5698, 2025.

EGU25-6016 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

A mixed top-down bottom-up approach to site suitability of small agricultural reservoirs and application in Tuscany (Italy) 

Luigi Piemontese, Chiara Bocci, Elisa Michelotti, Tobia Papini, Giulio Castelli, Yamuna Giambastiani, Federico Preti, and Elena Bresci

Agricultural production increasingly relies on irrigation to withstand droughts, precipitation variability or support agricultural intensification. Small agricultural reservoirs (SmAR) can contribute to sustainable agricultural water management by providing additional water without increasing pressure on surface or groundwater resources. The construction of new SmARs is usually subject to a phase of suitability analysis, which helps discern suitable places within a large area, before exploring the potential locations with major details. This task is traditionally performed using top-down approaches relying on multi-criteria analysis (MCDA), which are based on relevant macro criteria for the location of SmAR, often supported by hydrological modelling. In this work we present a bottom-up approach based on statistical modelling of a large database of existing SmAR locations. We compare this empirical approach with the conventional MCDA to show the potential advantages of data-driven suitability analysis within a case application in the Italian region of Tuscany. Our results can directly support high level suitability in Tuscany, while the proposed approach can be further extended and applied in different contexts, scales, and applications.

How to cite: Piemontese, L., Bocci, C., Michelotti, E., Papini, T., Castelli, G., Giambastiani, Y., Preti, F., and Bresci, E.: A mixed top-down bottom-up approach to site suitability of small agricultural reservoirs and application in Tuscany (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6016, 2025.

The increasing population, rising water demand, and the multifaceted impacts of climate change have exacerbated global water scarcity challenges. Water reservoirs serve as critical infrastructure to ensure a reliable supply for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and environmental purposes. Among single-purpose dams, 48% are dedicated to irrigation; however, a study conducted by the World Commission on Dams revealed that irrigation dams frequently fail to deliver the projected water supply for the initially planned areas, underscoring inefficiencies in reservoir management. Furthermore, climate change is projected to amplify these challenges by increasing crop water demand and reducing reservoir storage. This highlights the urgent need for sustainable irrigation reservoir management at the global scale, beginning with the crucial step of identifying the command area—the designated region receiving water from a reservoir for irrigation purposes. Accurately delineating this area is essential for precise estimation of irrigation water demand, facilitating optimal water release planning, mitigating risks of over- or under-supply, and enhancing overall reservoir management, particularly in the context of climate change impacts. Knowledge of the location and extent of command areas can inform large-scale systematic planning efforts to ensure water supply under climate change conditions by identifying those command areas that are likely to face water shortages and those reservoirs where future releases may fall below historical trends.

This study presents a structured approach for delineating and allocating reservoir command areas at the global scale using geospatial analysis. Command areas are estimated within a range of up to 100 km from the reservoir, reflecting economically viable water transfer distances. To estimate potential command area locations, landscape pixels are ranked based on five criteria: elevation, proximity to the reservoir, terrain slope, hydrologic connectivity, and land use (i.e., irrigated areas and croplands). Pixels at lower elevations relative to the reservoir are prioritized, assuming that natural downward gradients in water transfer are preferred over artificial pumping to reach higher grounds. Close proximity to the reservoir is preferred as closer areas minimize water losses and reduce economic costs. Slope suitability is assessed by prioritizing flat terrain below a threshold of 10%. Hydrologic connectivity is determined by tracing the downstream part of the watershed in which the reservoir is located, avoiding command area allocations across higher terrain in neighboring catchments. Finally, areas that are identified on ancillary maps as irrigation areas or croplands are assumed to have a high likelihood of representing the command area of the nearest reservoir; however, it is recognized that groundwater and local streamflow abstractions can provide alternative water sources. These five criteria are combined using weighted overlays to iteratively allocate pixels to determine the potential command area. In cases where the command area extent is not known for a given reservoir, the irrigation capacity is estimated based on the storage volume of the reservoir, i.e., the command area extent is limited to the maximum area that can be supplied with enough water to sustain one crop cycle. The resulting command areas are validated using reported data and literature reviews to ensure accuracy.

How to cite: Soleimanian, E. and Lehner, B.: Determining Command Areas of Irrigation Reservoirs at a Global Scale to Support Sustainable Water Management under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7390, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7390, 2025.

EGU25-8517 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.4

The Potential of Micro-Storage Systems for Enhancing Resilience in Agricultural Water Resource Management under Climate Change 

Wendi Wang, Francesco Bettella, Vincenzo D’Agostino, and Paolo Tarolli

Climate change-induced heatwaves and extreme rainfall events present significant challenges to agricultural landscapes, particularly in rainfed farmland. These extreme events not only reduce food production but also result in economic losses and accelerate land degradation. For smallholder farmers, ensuring a self-sufficient supply of irrigation water during droughts—especially at the onset of a drought—is critical.

In this context, sustainable water resource management plays a vital role in enhancing the resilience of agriculture under changing climate conditions. Small, low-cost micro water storage systems are recognized as effective solutions for intercepting surface runoff and harvesting water when properly designed. However, limited research has explored the detailed water retention efficiency of such micro-storage systems under different conditions and the factors influencing their performance. This study aims to optimize water retention rates in micro-storage systems through best maintenance practices and identify the key factors affecting their efficiency. To achieve this, we established an experimental site in northern Italy with four micro-storage systems, each with a capacity of 150 m³. Additionally, water level transducers were installed in the reservoirs to monitor water levels at 30-minute intervals. A meteorological station was set up to record environmental variables, including solar radiation, precipitation, wind speed, and humidity.The findings of this study will provide crucial guidance for maintaining micro-storage systems, enabling local farmers to improve their resilience and contribute to the sustainability of rainfed agriculture in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Wang, W., Bettella, F., D’Agostino, V., and Tarolli, P.: The Potential of Micro-Storage Systems for Enhancing Resilience in Agricultural Water Resource Management under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8517, 2025.

EGU25-8774 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

 A Global Perspective on Endorheic Lake Shrinkage: Impacts of Anthropogenic and Atmospheric Factors  

Hannes Nevermann, Milad Aminzadeh, Kaveh Madani, Paolo D'Odorico, Amir AghaKouchak, and Nima Shokri

Endorheic lakes, critical components of terrestrial hydrology in closed drainage basins, serve as sensitive indicators of environmental and anthropogenic changes (Hassani et al., 2020). This study analyzed 635 endorheic lakes globally using high-resolution satellite datasets to quantify changes in surface area from 2000 to 2021 and identify the underlying causes. Of these, 134 lakes showed noticeable surface area reductions, with the highest rates observed in water-stressed regions, particularly in Asia and Semi-Arid climates. We found that anthropogenic activities, including agricultural expansion, were key drivers of shrinkage in 89 lakes, whereas meteorological factors, such as increased aridity, primarily influenced 45 lakes. For example, irrigation significantly impacted water balance in places like Wadi Al Rayan in Egypt and Chenghai Lake in China, while industrial activities like lithium mining were particularly notable in the basin of the Dongtai Jiner Lake in China. Additionally, changes in climatic variables, including reduced precipitation and heightened evapotranspiration, further exacerbated lake surface reductions in many regions. These findings highlight the complex interplay between human and natural factors affecting lake dynamics often resulting in what is referred to as anthropogenic drought. They offer valuable insights for the sustainable management of endorheic lake ecosystems, emphasizing the need for strategies that address both direct anthropogenic pressures and changes in climatic and environmental factors.

 

Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., D'Odorico, P., Keshmiri, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Desiccation crisis of saline lakes: A new decision-support framework for building resilience to climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 703, 134718, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134718.

How to cite: Nevermann, H., Aminzadeh, M., Madani, K., D'Odorico, P., AghaKouchak, A., and Shokri, N.:  A Global Perspective on Endorheic Lake Shrinkage: Impacts of Anthropogenic and Atmospheric Factors , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8774, 2025.

EGU25-10331 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

Incorporating typhoon tracks for improved dynamic control of water level 

Hao Ye, Pan Liu, Xiaojing Zhang, Jintao Fan, Huan Xu, and Weibo Liu

Typhoons present both water resources and flood risks to coastal reservoirs. Forecasts of typhoon tracks are generally more accurate than precipitation over long lead times. However, existing dynamic control strategies consider precipitation forecasts without incorporating typhoon tracks. To address the issue, a dynamic control method is proposed by integrating both precipitation and typhoon forecasts. Typhoons are classified into categories based on their track characteristics and associated precipitation in the reservoir watershed. Dynamic water level control boundaries are established for each category. The Jiaokou Reservoir in Zhejiang, China, is selected for a case study. Results indicate that (1) the minimal distance of a typhoon from the reservoir and the corresponding precipitation are identified as control parameters, based on classification, (2) incorporating typhoon forecasts enables finer water level control with longer lead times compared to using precipitation forecasts alone, and (3) dynamic control integrating typhoon tracks and precipitation increases average water storage by 3.5 million m3 (5.6%) while maintaining the same flood control standards compared to dynamic control based solely on precipitation. The proposed method optimizes dynamic control strategies for reservoir water levels through typhoon and precipitation forecasts across varying lead times, effectively balancing flood risks and benefits.

How to cite: Ye, H., Liu, P., Zhang, X., Fan, J., Xu, H., and Liu, W.: Incorporating typhoon tracks for improved dynamic control of water level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10331, 2025.

The Flumendosa basin case study is characterized by a very attractive long-term (one-century) hydrological database, low urbanization, and its key role in the water resources of the Sardinian Island (the Flumendosa reservoir system has a total capacity of about 620 × 106 m3). It provides an interesting opportunity to analyze the response of water resource systems to historical and future climate change. The analysis of a long-term (1922 – 2022) hydrological database showed that the Flumendosa basin has been affected by climate change since the middle of the last century, associated with a decrease in winter precipitation and annual runoff (Mann-Kendall τ=-0.271), reduced by half in the last century, and an increase in the mean annual air temperature (Mann-Kendall τ=+0.373). The drier climate conditions of the last 40 years raise questions for the pre-existing regional water resource planning. The proposed distributed ecohydrological model effectively predicted one century of runoff data and becomes a powerful tool for water resource and environmental planning. We used the spatially distributed ecohydrological model and a water resources management model (WARGI) to define the economic efficiency and the optimal water allocation in the water system configurations throughout the evaluation of multiple planning and management rules for future climate scenarios. Using the IPCC future climate scenarios (up to the end of the century), the soil is predicted to become drier; the runoff will further decrease by about 18%, and up to 31% for 2076-2100 period. In these future hydrological conditions (2024-2100), irrigation demands will not be totally satisfied, with up to 74% of future years being in deficit for irrigation, with a mean deficit of up to 52% for irrigation a scenario C, the scenario with the maximum increase in irrigation in the future. Only a conservative scenario for irrigation, which will exclude the growth of irrigated areas, will be sustainable for the Sardinian water resources system under future climate change scenarios.

We demonstrated that the Flumendosa basin is hydrological sensitive to forest cover changes, as typical of water-limited basins. In this sense, extreme land cover change strategies, such as of deforestation, may help to increase water resources in future sce-narios but can clearly not be accepted because the deforestation will have a strong impact on the carbon assimilation amount in the basin, which will decrease by up to 37% at the end of the 2076-2100 period, as well as on other environmental factors (e.g., soil erosion control); this is not compatible with policies of climate change mitigation and resilience. Afforestation activities will bring a positive increase in carbon assimilation but a further reduction of runoff, slightly increasing the number of deficit years for irrigation.

These results, and the impact of climate change on water resources, need to be carefully considered in the Sardinian development plans. Although climate change is caused on a global scale, it impacts water resources and growth at a local scale, with consequences in an island, such as Sardinia, which has been a positive example of environmental and natural preservation.

How to cite: Montaldo, N., Sirigu, S., and Corona, R.: On the Hydrological Sustainability of Dam-based Water Resources system in a Mediterranean Basin Undergoing Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11501, 2025.

EGU25-13422 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.4 | Highlight

Assessment of alternative water storage strategies in a Mediterranean catchment in a changing climate 

Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Eleonora Forzini, Ismail Bouizrou, Luigi Piemontese, Enrico Lucca, Davide Danilo Chiarelli, Gabriele Bertoli, Marco Lompi, Alessandro Giuliano, Tommaso Pacetti, Enrica Caporali, and Elena Bresci

Droughts and water scarcity are increasingly challenging agricultural production and increasing water storage is a common solution. In the Orcia catchment – Tuscany region, Central Italy – the main type of storage is represented by Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmARs), which were largely realized in the 20th century to boost agricultural production of herbaceous crops. Recently, the underutilized SmARs (>1000 with an average area of 0.15 hectares) received renewed interest due to the challenges posed by climate change. Rising temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns threaten the high-quality productions of the Orcia catchment, which now often requires supplemental irrigation during summer. At the same time, as a response to recent droughts, institutions are promoting the realization of a large reservoir (17 million m3) in the Orcia catchment. In this study, we aim to simulate the two types of water storage and assess climate change consequences on the future water stored. To represent them, we use the flexible and integrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+). The model is calibrated and validated for monthly streamflow and basin actual evapotranspiration through an unusual approach of finding the best parameters in a “simplified” model set-up, and then transferring them to the so-called “complex” model (which requires very long simulation run time and includes the SmARs). We set up alternative models to represent the conditions without any type of water storage, both combined and only the SmARs or the large dam. Then, we use five General Circulation Models under the Business as Usual emission scenario to simulate the implication of climate change on future water stored in the Orcia catchment until 2100. In response to the decreasing precipitation and increased temperature, the outputs of the validated SWAT+ model show a decline in water flowing into the reservoirs (-30%) and a surge in evaporation from the reservoirs (8.7%). This will have consequences on the future water stored that is expected to decrease (-6.2%) by the end of the century. Additionally, infiltration from the bottom of the reservoirs will also decline (-10%), hence reducing aquifer recharge. While the trends assessed with the Mann-Kendall test are often significant, these are strongest when considering only the summer season or only the SmARs. Therefore, preliminary results show that SmARs might be more susceptible to climate change compared to large dams. As SmARs remain a crucial adaptation strategy to climate change, these aspects should be considered in sustainable water management and planning in the Orcia catchment.

Acknowledgments

This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by PRIMA, an initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021], and the RETURN Extended Partnership funded by the EU Next-GenerationEU (NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005). The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

How to cite: Villani, L., Castelli, G., Forzini, E., Bouizrou, I., Piemontese, L., Lucca, E., Chiarelli, D. D., Bertoli, G., Lompi, M., Giuliano, A., Pacetti, T., Caporali, E., and Bresci, E.: Assessment of alternative water storage strategies in a Mediterranean catchment in a changing climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13422, 2025.

EGU25-14286 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

Development of reservoir operation rules for environmental water supply 

Jeongeun Won and Sangdan Kim

One of the most common methods for operating reservoir systems is to follow pre-established rules that specify allowable release volumes at specific times of the year. In South Korea, traditional reservoir operation rules have primarily focused on human-centric objectives, such as flood control, water supply, and hydropower generation, with insufficient consideration for downstream environmental needs. A key challenge in this context is to develop methods for multipurpose reservoir operation that restore healthy flow regimes in upstream and downstream areas while minimizing disruptions to existing water use benefits. This study proposes water supply adjustment guidelines for multipurpose reservoirs to ensure the sustainable provision of environmental water. The proposed guidelines aim to prevent severe water shortages during drought conditions by gradually reducing allocations for instream flow, agricultural, industrial, and municipal water uses. Recently, the role of multipurpose reservoirs in South Korea has expanded to include the provision of environmental water, with some reservoirs allocating water specifically to improve downstream river water quality. However, specialized water supply adjustment guidelines tailored to environmental water management have not yet been established. This study examines multipurpose reservoirs with environmental water allocations and evaluates the feasibility of monthly environmental water supply plans during drought conditions. A phased water reduction plan focusing on environmental water is proposed, and stage-specific minimum reservoir storage volumes are calculated to meet reliability criteria. Simulated operations are conducted to develop effective and sustainable reservoir operation rules. This research offers a new direction for multipurpose reservoir management in light of the expanding role of environmental water and provides practical management strategies to address the challenges of climate change and extreme meteorological conditions.

 

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Water Management Program for Drought Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE).(RS-2023-00230286)

How to cite: Won, J. and Kim, S.: Development of reservoir operation rules for environmental water supply, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14286, 2025.

Despite the fact that Japan generally receives a considerable amount of rainfall annually, the steep terrain and limited size of rivers results in rapid outflow to the sea. Consequently, in numerous regions of Japan, small-scale agricultural reservoirs have emerged as the predominant water storage infrastructure and the primary source of water for irrigating rice paddies. It is estimated that there are approximately 150,000 such reservoirs in Japan, with the majority having been constructed over a century ago. This study investigates how changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change and the aging of the population, as well as the accompanying changes in agricultural practices, particularly in rural areas, are affecting the fate of Japan's agricultural reservoirs.

In the present study, the primary objective was to establish a comprehensive database of reservoirs. Despite the availability of official data on reservoirs, it has been observed that this data does not accurately reflect the current situation, particularly in the case of small reservoirs. This is primarily due to the large number of reservoirs and the limited capacity of the government to effectively monitor these bodies of water. Additionally, the database has not been updated to reflect the changes in the reservoir environment that have occurred in tandem with the rapid advancements in agricultural practices and the shifting social landscape, characterized by declining birth rates and an aging population. To address these challenges, we have developed a technology capable of detecting these reservoirs through the analysis of aerial images and satellite observations.

The results of case studies of several regions based on the database suggest that the background to the abandonment and abandonment of small reservoirs is the decline in demand and the existence of modern irrigation facilities that make it possible to use the water of large-scale, highly efficient reservoirs rather than small reservoirs nearby. A significant proportion of these reservoirs, constituting the bulk of the total number of reservoirs, have been either abandoned or are on the verge of being abandoned, particularly those with a capacity of less than 10,000 m3. This is primarily attributable to their suboptimal utilization and management efficiency. Moreover, it has been observed that the recent increase in precipitation in the form of heavy rainfall has accentuated the risks associated with reservoirs. Consequently, stakeholders are being prompted to make decisions that lead to the abandonment or closure of these reservoirs. This presentation will draw from the trends in the fate of reservoirs for agricultural use in Japan, with a focus on abandonment and closure, to discuss sustainable and effective water management and the various environmental and socio-economic factors that affect reservoirs.

How to cite: Watanabe, S.: Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Demographic Shifts on Japan's Small Agricultural Reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15391, 2025.

EGU25-18315 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

Integrating remote sensing observations and hydrological modeling to assess reservoir sustainability in the Morava sub-basin.  

Carla Catania, Emilio Politti, and Keerthana Suresh

This study focuses on the Morava sub-basin in the upper Danube region, which contains several key reservoirs (e.g., Vranov, Vir, Mostiště) for water supply, energy generation and flood protection. If not managed sustainably under changing climatic conditions, these reservoirs could threaten water security in the Morava region and its downstream catchments. We employed the Community Water Model (CWatM), a state-of-the-art hydrological tool that simulates the water cycle at global and local scales at a 1-minute resolution. Using the calibrated model, we assessed the selected infrastructure's current storage capacities and release dynamics. We used a data-driven approach based on a 366-day cycle of releases based on observed water level or storage observations.

Due to the lack of data for several reservoirs in the Morava sub-basin, we integrated remote sensing data to enhance model accuracy and refine its assumptions. Currently, CWatM's lake storage function is simplified as a linear relationship between water level and storage. This assumption for small and medium reservoirs might not be accurate.

We utilized the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from the Landsat 7 and 8 missions to identify instances where this linear relation assumption does not hold. The identified relationships were used to recalibrate the model's storage relationships and run it under different SSP-RCPs scenarios for 2025 to 2100, analyzing reservoir performance and identifying potential risks.This study lays the groundwork for improving management strategies to address the challenges of climate change and growing socio-economic pressures.

How to cite: Catania, C., Politti, E., and Suresh, K.: Integrating remote sensing observations and hydrological modeling to assess reservoir sustainability in the Morava sub-basin. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18315, 2025.

EGU25-18523 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.4

Using hydrodynamic modeling for an assessment of climate change impact on a covered karst system. Example of the Moulineaux spring (Dordogne, France) 

Guillaume Lorette, Maxime Jolly, Nicolas Peyraube, Roland Lastennet, and Alain Denis

Undercover karst are characterized by limestone formations underneath a variability thick, low-permeability cover. Karst landforms such as sinkholes or swallow holes are thus not very frequent in these environments. This leads to a high inertia of the environment. In the current context of climate change, there is a growing interest in the impact on water resources in karst systems. While several scientific studies have modeled these impacts, most of them focus on outcropping karst system. Research on undercover karst remains limited, primarily due to a high level of inertia of these environments. It represents a challenge for the application of conventional tools and methods usually employed to characterize a system and complicating the interpretation of usual chemical methods to understand the role of the cover karst system

The Moulineaux spring is an example of a covered system. It is a key resource for the urban area of Perigueux (France) by ensuring the supply of drinking water to more than 60,000 inhabitants. It’s average flow rate is 820 L.s-1 and can range between 118 L.s-1 and 4 000 L.s-1. The karstic system is mostly covered by a thick semi-permeable layer of alternating marly limestone, alterite rocks and sediments dating from the Campanian period (Upper Cretaceous). Its sizeable catchment area spans more than 80 km² more than 50% of which is occupied by agricultural activities.

Following continuous monitoring of spring flows and rainfall since 2011, modelling of the Moulineaux karstic system was carried out using various existing modelling software packages, such as KarstID and KartsMod. A conceptual three-reservoir model was used to represent the karst system of the Moulineaux. The model consists of an epikarst, a cover, a matrix reservoir, and a bypass. Achieving a correlation of over 85% according to the Nash coefficient, this model appears to be the most representative of the real system. Based on this model, several scenarios of climate change set up by the “DRIAS portal” in the coming years were applied. The results obtained with the most likely future scenario (RCP 8.5) show a stabilization of the average flow over 100 years, but greater variability in the flows throughout the year. The results enable better management and protection of these karstic hydrosystems. In the future, the goal is to apply this approach to hydrochemical modeling.

How to cite: Lorette, G., Jolly, M., Peyraube, N., Lastennet, R., and Denis, A.: Using hydrodynamic modeling for an assessment of climate change impact on a covered karst system. Example of the Moulineaux spring (Dordogne, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18523, 2025.

EGU25-20049 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.4

Spatial multicriteria analysis for potential water harvesting sites: a compensatory approach to enhance agriculture resilience 

Mehdi Sheikh Goodarzi, Luigi Piemontese, Noemi Mannucci, Gabriele Bertoli, Marco Lompi, Tommaso Pacetti, Nikolas Galli, Davide Danilo Chiarelli, Giulio Castelli, Maria Cristina Rulli, Elena Bresci, and Enrica Caporali

Droughts represent a significant challenge in agricultural water management, and climate change is expected to increase the magnitude and duration of these events in many regions of the world due to rising evaporation rates and decreasing precipitation. Small agricultural reservoirs (SmAR) can serve as an effective adaptation strategy by harvesting water during wet periods. However, determining optimal sites for new SmARs requires consideration of various bio-geo-physical and socio-economic factors to identify agricultural areas where they would provide the greatest benefit. This study introduces a spatial Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework to identify optimal locations for SmARs to enhance water resilience in Italy, also assessing irrigation demands under changing climatic conditions. Our methodology incorporates exclusion criteria, such as steep slopes, snow-covered areas, and regions with irrigation districts. Then, the suitability analysis is further refined by considering on-site natural risks and capacities, such as water availability, soil erosion potential, geological fitness, bluewater demand, surface sealing, and accessibility to facilities. The workflow involves cross-validating existing SMARs detected via remote-sensing against the suitability map derived from MCDA, ensuring robust evaluation of current and potential reservoir sites. To this end, we leveraged the national-scale repositories featuring terrain models, climate datasets, hydrology outputs, and land use/land cover data. Our findings highlight key spatial patterns and potential areas for new reservoir sites, providing actionable insights for sustainable water resource management. The MCDA approach demonstrates its capability to integrate diverse datasets and address complex trade-offs, offering a replicable model for other regions facing similar challenges.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was carried out within the CASTLE project and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.1 – D.D. n. 104 02/02/2022 PRIN 2022 project code MUR 2022XSERL4 - CUP  B53D23007590006). The research is also carried out within the RETURN – multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT comUnities undeR a changiNg climate Extended Partnership and received funding from the  European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Sheikh Goodarzi, M., Piemontese, L., Mannucci, N., Bertoli, G., Lompi, M., Pacetti, T., Galli, N., Chiarelli, D. D., Castelli, G., Rulli, M. C., Bresci, E., and Caporali, E.: Spatial multicriteria analysis for potential water harvesting sites: a compensatory approach to enhance agriculture resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20049, 2025.

EGU25-204 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Water Energy Food Nexus in Central Asia Transboundary River Basin: Evolution, Trends and Applications  

Taiwo Temitope Bamgboye, Matin Rafipour Langeroud, and Elyor Shukurov

 

The water-energy-food nexus has emerged as a prominent area of study and application, highlighting the vital role these sectors play in human existence and the intricate and substantial challenges they encounter. Although the nexus concept is still evolving and has not been fully implemented in practice, it has inspired diverse approaches across various contexts. In the present study, Central Asia, a region where transboundary water issues are made extremely prominent and complex due to climate change, the historical evolution of basin characteristics, and the different interests of riparian countries, was selected as the research area.  This study aims to assess nexus research in transboundary water from previously published research focusing on Central Asia, with the objective of characterising the efforts that have gone into understanding the intellectual and social structures (such as identification of patterns, hot topics, and themes of focus by various authors) as well as the evolution of the WEF nexus research domain in Central Asia. Using a meta-analysis and bibliometric analysis, the authors examined literature from 2011 to 2024, sourced from the Web of Science, Scopus databases, and media. Analytical tools such as the Bibliometrix, an RStudio package, Microsoft Excel, and VOS viewer were applied to interpret the data. This study contributes to the growing body of literature and ongoing discussions regarding how the WEF Nexus approaches in a transboundary context can represent an opportunity for reinforced collaboration regarding resource management

How to cite: Bamgboye, T. T., Rafipour Langeroud, M., and Shukurov, E.: Water Energy Food Nexus in Central Asia Transboundary River Basin: Evolution, Trends and Applications , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-204, 2025.

EGU25-689 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: Coupling Glacier and Hydrological Models for the Vakhsh River 

Matin Rafipour Langeroudi, Björn Klöve, and Ali Torabi Haghighi3

Keywords: Climate change; CWATM; OGGM; Vakhsh River Basin, Aral Sea

This paper presents a coupled large-scale glacier and hydrological and water resources model for scenario-based analysis of possible river regime alteration under climate change.  The proposed framework utilizes the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.5.3 and the large-scale Community Water Model (CWatM) V1.08. The coupled model integrates glacier dynamics, precipitation, temperature, and runoff to predict streamflow and water storage changes by 2100. The analysis focuses on the Vakhsh River Basin, a key tributary of the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia's most significant transboundary rivers. This basin encompasses the Pamir Mountains and the Fedchenko Glacier, the largest glacier in the world outside the polar regions. The Pamir Mountains provide water to the arid region extending to the Aral Sea and help mitigate seasonal water shortages by melting snow, glaciers, and permafrost. However, the impact of climate change on the Pamir cryosphere remains poorly understood due to a lack of measurements in the past several decades. Our findings underscore the importance of considering glacier dynamics in water resource management, especially under future climate extremes, and suggest strategies for sustainable management in glacier-fed basins. The uncertainties in glacier-sourced runoff associated with inaccurate precipitation inputs highlight the need for the continued attention and collaboration of glacier and hydrological modeling communities, emphasizing the urgency of this research. The study provides valuable insights into potential changes in inflow to the under-construction Rogun Dam in Tajikistan. The findings are expected to aid in addressing future operational conditions of existing reservoirs, such as Nurek and Sangtuda, located downstream of the Rogun Dam, and assess water availability for irrigation in downstream countries.

How to cite: Rafipour Langeroudi, M., Klöve, B., and Torabi Haghighi3, A.: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: Coupling Glacier and Hydrological Models for the Vakhsh River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-689, 2025.

EGU25-1109 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Water-Energy-Food Challenges in Central Asia: A Comparative Study of Solar and Fossil Fuel-Powered Irrigation Systems  

Elyor Shukurov, Taiwo Bamgboye, and Matin Rafipour Langeroudi

Water-Energy-Food Challenges in Central Asia: A Comparative Study of Solar and Fossil Fuel-Powered Irrigation Systems 

Doctoral researcher Matin Rafipour Langeroudi, Doctoral researcher Taiwo Bamgboye University of Oulu

Water-related challenges in transboundary river basins are exacerbated by climate change, historical basin developments, and competing national interests. In Central Asia, the Amu Darya River, essential for agriculture in downstream countries like Uzbekistan, faces significant threats from upstream infrastructure projects such as the Rogun Dam in Tajikistan and the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan. These projects are expected to reduce downstream water flow by up to 30% and 15%, respectively, significantly impacting irrigation systems, increasing energy demands for pumping, and straining agricultural productivity and socio-economic stability. The aim of this research addresses the impacts of upstream developments on water availability and explores adaptive strategies for irrigation sustainability. A comparative analysis of solar-powered and fossil fuel-powered irrigation systems will be conducted to assess their efficiency, environmental impact, and economic feasibility. Environmental assessments will estimate greenhouse gas emissions, and cost-benefit analyses will evaluate energy efficiency and long-term viability. Key metrics, including energy consumption, water output, and operational costs, will be analyzed to identify trade-offs and propose sustainable solutions. The study’s findings aim to mitigate the impacts of reduced water availability by promoting renewable energy integration and adaptive irrigation practices. By addressing these challenges within the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, this research offers critical insights to guide policymakers and stakeholders in developing sustainable water resource management strategies, transitioning to cleaner energy systems, and enhancing agricultural resilience under the dual pressures of upstream developments and climate change.

 

Keywords: Amu Darya Basin, Upstream infrastructure projects, Water resource management, Irrigation systems, Agricultural productivity, Solar energy in agriculture, Fossil fuel-based pumping system, Transboundary water challenges, Rogun Dam impact, Qosh-Tepa canal, Water-Energy-Food nexus, Renewable energy solutions.

How to cite: Shukurov, E., Bamgboye, T., and Rafipour Langeroudi, M.: Water-Energy-Food Challenges in Central Asia: A Comparative Study of Solar and Fossil Fuel-Powered Irrigation Systems , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1109, 2025.

EGU25-1308 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Water Governance and Policymaking in Iran Over the Last Half-Century: Inefficiencies and Shortcomings 

Mehdi Rahimi, Mohammadnabi Jalali, Babak Zolghadr-Asli, Amir AghaKouchak, and Ali Mirchi

Over the past five decades, the mismanagement of water resources and the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources have accelerated a process of “anthropogenic drought” leading to “water bankruptcy”, with repercussions spanning environmental, socioeconomic, and political spheres. Perhaps the most significant shortcoming in Iran’s water management during this period has been the failure to establish effective water governance based on principles of sustainable development. This is in part due to over-reliance on a top-down technocratic approach within the governance system, as well as by reactive strategies rather than proactive ones, among other factors. Consequently, the country has witnessed a surge in socio-political conflicts over recent decades, manifesting in various forms and scales. Another underlying cause of this issue is the inefficiency of water resource management and systemic corruption that can limit the benefit of science-informed decisions and plans. This has led to the development of solutions that place disproportionate emphasis on technical aspects, while overlooking other critical factors such as socio-economic, organizational, institutional, legal, political, hydro-political, and environmental dimensions.  Socioeconomic changes during this period, combined with other external factors like climate change, have placed additional pressures on policymaking for water resource management. For instance, efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in agricultural production in pursuit of food security have widened the gap between available renewable water resources and the demands required to meet such ambitious goals. These issues have even contributed to escalating hydro-political tensions between Iran and its neighboring countries over shared transboundary water resources.  In summary, the issues arising from five decades of water governance and management can be attributed to inefficient policies driven by a lack of a holistic perspective on natural resources, top-down governance, systemic corruption, unresolved transboundary water-related challenges, the absence of an interdisciplinary approach and well-defined institutional mechanisms to address these interconnected water issues. Therefore, an effective solution to Iran’s water bankruptcy, is that policymaking must move toward institutional reforms that embrace dynamic, integrated perspectives considering the climate-water-food-energy nexus grounded on actionable science and polycentric stakeholder engagement. 

Keyword: Integrated Water Resources Management, Sustainable Development, Water Governance, Water Bankruptcy.

How to cite: Rahimi, M., Jalali, M., Zolghadr-Asli, B., AghaKouchak, A., and Mirchi, A.: Water Governance and Policymaking in Iran Over the Last Half-Century: Inefficiencies and Shortcomings, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1308, 2025.

River flow regimes are significantly altered by anthropogenic regulation activities, such as dam reservoir and hydropower. Such activities modify river flow regime, integrating three primary attributes (magnitude, timing, and monthly variability). However, these impacts are different in diverse environments according to the climate and land use. This study aims to investigate such impacts in cold climate sub-Arctic and arid semi-arid examples. First, the post and pre impact periods are set based on the changing point resulted from Pettitt test. Then the long-term monthly average of flow in the two pre and post impact periods will be assessed for each station to illustrate the form of influences in monthly hydrographs. After that, the River Impact index (RI) is employed to investigate the level of flow regime alteration and address those flow attributes that are impacted differently in different cases. The RI index is quantified by developing the respective impact factors MIF (Magnitude Impact Factor), TIF (Timing Impact Factor) and VIF (Variation Impact Factor) where RI=MIF×(TIF+VIF). The preliminary results show that in arid and semi-arid cases with intensive agriculture and hydrosystem development (such as Karkheh and Sefidrud in Iran), magnitude has altered more than the other attributes, while, in sub-Arctic cases such as (Ob, Yukon, Mackenzie), river regulation mainly impacts the timing and variability. This can highlight the role of mid-basin tributaries which naturally regulate the magnitude of flow in the sub arctic watersheds where land use change is not significant, in contrast with the other cases in arid and semi-arid regions.

How to cite: Ghadimi, S. and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Comparative assessment of river flow regime alteration in diverse environment: cases from pan-Arctic and arid semi-arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1405, 2025.

In the Cuvelai-Cunene and Limpopo River Basins, rapid urbanization, climate change, and economic instability exacerbate existing water challenges, affecting ecosystems and communities reliant on agriculture and water resources. Both basins are particularly vulnerable to floods and droughts, with local communities’ livelihoods directly influenced by climate variability. Our research addresses these challenges through a participatory multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA) in order to assess vulnerability and risk for a customised management to enhance water security. Furthermore, it contributes to further develop research methods of MCDA risk assessment. 

This work is part of the project “Co-Design of a Hydrometeorological Information System for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Southern Africa (Co-HYDIM-SA)”, under the Water Security in Africa (WASA) Programme, which aims to enhance water security across Southern Africa. The central component of the project is the development of a co-designed hydro-meteorological information system (CUVEWIS), which will provide reliable, tailored risk assessments to support decision-making, with a focus on hydrological forecasting and the management of hydrological extremes.

Our work package employs a comprehensive assessment framework based on three risk factors: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our methodology integrates co-production of knowledge with stakeholder input to develop spatial risk and vulnerability maps, and actionable information to mitigate climate-driven water risks. Data sources include satellite imagery, socio-economic statistics, and local expertise to construct region-specific risk and vulnerability indicators. A multi-criteria decision-making approach refines these indicators and assesses stakeholder perspectives, reflecting local insights, demands and needs regarding risk and risk information use. This synthesis of diverse data and stakeholder input, incorporating a human component within measured and modelled datasets, supports the development of the hydro-meteorological information system through context-specific, adaptive, and integrated risk management.

This research aligns with the UN 2023 Water Conference’s call to accelerate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through strengthened cooperation and integrated water resource management. It supports SADC Regional Strategic Action Plan V’s themes on water resources management by identifying regional risk hotspots, generating context-specific data for CUVEWIS, and developing foundational tools for operational forecasting and climate adaptation. Our participatory approach not only enhances socio-hydrological understanding but also strengthens regional capacities for risk management and sustainable, climate-resilient water resource management. Furthermore, this work is a valuable contribution to the IAHS's new decade initiative HELPING, which highlights the co-production of knowledge with stakeholders as a cornerstone of hydrological research.

Key words: Risk assessment, vulnerability, flood, drought, multi-criteria decision approach.

Acknowledgement: The WASA programme in Germany was launched under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with the collaboration of six additional federal ministries and their respective institutions.

How to cite: Pamukçu Albers, P. and Evers, M.: Addressing Water Risks in southern Africa: A Participatory Multi-Criteria Approach for Flood and Drought Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1512, 2025.

EGU25-1789 | Posters on site | HS5.1.5 | Highlight

The influence of reservoirs on land flooding using the exam ple of the former Kakhovka reservoir (Ukraine) 

Viktor Tsymbal, Yuri Buts, Aziza Baubekova, Alireza Sharifi, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam led to the complete disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir. Many articles have been written about the consequences of this disaster, the future of the dam and the reservoir. The opinions of scientists are divided, some talk about the advisability of restoring the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, others - about the preservation of the flora and fauna that formed on the site of the reservoir.

Among scientists, there is an opinion that the rise in groundwater levels in the reservoir area in March 2023 was caused by the influence of the Dnieper River. In this article, based on previous studies, an assumption is made about the discharge of the Sarmatian aquifer. This is confirmed by a significant decrease in the groundwater level on the lands of the left bank of the former Kakhovka reservoir.

The data for this study were obtained from hydrometeorological observations, Earth remote sensing systems. The article defines the main components of the water balance and the probable cause of the flooding of the territory of the former Kakhovka reservoir, presents studies of the influence of the former Kakhovka reservoir on the flooding of the lands of the left bank before and after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.

How to cite: Tsymbal, V., Buts, Y., Baubekova, A., Sharifi, A., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: The influence of reservoirs on land flooding using the exam ple of the former Kakhovka reservoir (Ukraine), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1789, 2025.

EGU25-1824 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Seawater Transfer and Sustainability challenges: Insights from Central Iran 

Alireza Gohari, Mahshid Ghanbarian, and Ghazal Akhavan Saraf

The Seawater transfer to Central Iran illustrates the challenges of balancing between industrial development and natural resource management. This water transfer project addresses water scarcity by providing a new water source, supporting industries, and boosting regional GDP through short-term gains like job creation and socioeconomic development. However, they introduce new constraints as the region becomes dependent on transferred water, and competition for limited water resources intensifies between industry and agriculture. Over time, this can cause environmental degradation, such as soil and water pollution, and pose risks to food security and rural livelihoods. These challenges highlight the importance of managing such projects focusing on long-term sustainability and equitable resource allocation to avoid economic and social instability in both the donor and recipient regions. The study examines the water, energy, and carbon footprints of seawater transfer to industrial and domestic sectors in Central Iran, assessing its environmental, operational, and sustainability impacts. Results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in resource efficiency among regions. Iron and steel industries demonstrate larger water footprints than copper industries, highlighting disparities in water efficiency. Energy and carbon footprints (EF and CF) align strongly, with Sarcheshmeh exhibiting the highest EF (515,084.63 kWh) and CF (13.22 kg CO₂ eq), while Dar Alu exhibits the lowest values, emphasizing its energy efficiency. Sustainability assessments reveal that Dar Alu (0.94) achieves high efficiency, reliability, and minimal vulnerability, underscoring their strong alignment with long-term operational goals. In contrast, Golgohar (0.63) and ChadorMalu (0.60) scored lowest, indicating substantial environmental and operational challenges. Relocating industrial units, such as Golgohar and Chadormalu, to coastal areas could reduce WF by up to 50% compared to seawater transfer, as industrial relocation minimizes the energy-intensive pumping processes over long distances. This study underscores the need for tailored strategies to enhance the efficiency of water transfer systems and mitigate environmental impacts. Relocation of iron and steel industries, optimization of water and energy use in Golgohar, and sustainable practices for regions like ChadorMalu are recommended to achieve balanced socio-economic and environmental outcomes in the water-scarce areas of Central Iran.

How to cite: Gohari, A., Ghanbarian, M., and Akhavan Saraf, G.: Seawater Transfer and Sustainability challenges: Insights from Central Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1824, 2025.

The interplay between water and agriculture is central to transboundary regions' socio-economic stability and food security, especially under the intensifying impacts of climate change. This study focuses on the water-food-energy-environment (WEFE) nexus between Syria and Jordan in the transboundary Yarmouk River Basin, highlighting the challenges, opportunities, and cooperative strategies required to address a warming climate. Water resources in the Yarmouk River Rasin are critical to both countries as they contribute massively to agricultural production. However, climate variability, political instability, and unsustainable resource management have exacerbated water scarcity, threatening agricultural resilience and regional stability.

This study utilizes the Excel-based IGain4Gains nexus model alongside data on near-future (2025-2050) water resources, usage, and consumption to analyze WEFE synergies and trade-offs in the Yarmouk Basin. Three scenarios for river basin management are explored: business as usual, climate-intensified competition (focused on improving irrigation efficiency and expanding irrigated areas), and climate-resilient cooperation (emphasizing enhanced irrigation efficiency, maintaining current irrigated areas, and increasing transboundary water flows to Jordan). The scenario outputs were validated through stakeholder consultations, providing insights into sustainable transboundary cooperation pathways based on equitable nexus benefits and trade-offs between upstream and downstream users.

The findings highlight that climate-resilient cooperation is the most effective approach to mitigating risks and promoting stability. Key recommendations include implementing water-saving technologies like precision irrigation and wastewater reuse, alongside strengthening institutional frameworks for joint water governance. Advancing adaptation efforts requires regional and international collaboration through targeted funding, capacity building, and knowledge exchange, ensuring policies are aligned with climate-resilient priorities for sustainable resource management.

How to cite: Al-Zu’bi, M. and Amdar, N.: Navigating Syria-Jordan WEFE Nexus: Scenarios and Pathways for Sustainable Transboundary Cooperation in the Transboundary Yarmouk River Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1945, 2025.

Monitoring glacier dynamics over the long term is crucial for calibrating hydrological models and validating future runoff projections in catchments. As sensitive indicators of climate change, glaciers are particularly critical in Central Asia, one of the driest continental regions in the northern hemisphere, where their retreat exacerbates water scarcity, ecological disruption, and geopolitical tensions. These glaciers are primarily concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, serving as vital water sources for agriculture in downstream countries. The Zarafshan and Amu Darya rivers extensively support agricultural activities in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, while the Syr Darya river sustains agriculture in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Any changes in water availability could accelerate water conflicts in the region. In the Ili Basin, glaciers located in China contribute to the flow of water feeding Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan. A reduction in this flow could threaten the lake's future, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the Aral Sea crisis in the region. Consequently, the future of glaciers emerges as a key driver of transboundary water issues in Central Asia, highlighting the urgent need for cooperative management and sustainable strategies to mitigate these challenges. This study integrates Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) data and assimilated products to analyze glacier area changes across the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ili River basins from 1970 to 2024, employing machine learning methods. A time-series analysis framework was adopted to enhance glacier detection, leveraging ERA-5 monthly snow cover dataset. Seasonal snow cover often obscures glacier detection and leads to overestimations. ERA-5 data were filtered for warm-season imagery and aggregated into annual averages to address this. Snow cover persisting through warm seasons at elevations above 2500 meters was identified as glacier associated. This methodology was validated through comparisons with high-resolution EOS imagery, confirming its accuracy in delineating glacier extents. Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test revealed a gentle decreasing trend in glacier area, beginning in the late 1990s to early 2000s. During the study period, glacier area declined by 13% in the Amu Darya basin, 21% in the Ili basin, and 29% in the Syr Darya basin. Following this, air temperature records displayed a statistically significant increase, with mean temperature rising by 0.75 0C from 1996-1997. A negative correlation was observed between air temperature and glacier area, with coefficients of -0.44, -0.60 and -0.62 for the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ili basins, respectively. Cross-correlation and R-squared analysis indicated that air temperature variability explained 31% of glacier area changes over short time horizons (e.g., one-year lag).

How to cite: Ahrari, A. and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Glacier Dynamics and Water Security in Central Asia: Insights from Earth Observation Satellites and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2228, 2025.

The SASSCAL Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP – IWRM) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, was established in 2021 by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL), together with the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), and the International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC) at the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) in Koblenz, Germany.

SGSP students will be awarded their degrees from NUST in 2025 where the programme is hosted. A special part of the SGSP program is the mobility program where students spend three to six months in Germany, hosted by a university/ institute to work closely with their German supervisor. The mobility program is organized by the ICWRGC and allows the students to widen their career development through quality-oriented knowledge exchange, training opportunities, research and networking. The mobility program further provides technical experience and exposure enhancement, in addition to facilitating the promotion of ‘international adaptability and cross- cultural sensitivity” desired in the global economy.

The presentation will highlight the process of establishing and implementing the scientific mobility program, focusing on the cooperation required for this program to help promote discussions among young and experienced, German and African researchers on current and future research themes and activities in Southern Africa given climate change. In specific, current and future climate challenges in Southern Africa that were defined in a workshop conducted throughout the students’ mobility program and range from food insecurity, to water scarcity and floods will be addressed. The presentation will further focus on the new research themes arising and how we can ensure that this research be translated into policy.

Additionally, the presentation will include the results of the in-person evaluation interviews conducted with the students to shed a light on the lessons learn from this cooperation. This is the basis needed for proper evaluation and assessment of the mobility program to ensure better cooperation for the launching of a second cohort.

How to cite: Hashweh, L. and Bharati, L.: Establishing the mobility program as part of the SASSCAL Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP – IWRM) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3257, 2025.

EGU25-4676 | Orals | HS5.1.5

From Cropland to Dust Source: Land Use Dynamics and Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin 

Hossein Hashemi, Abdulhakim M. Abdi, Amir Naghibi, Pengxiang Zhao, Sara Brogaard, Ali Torabi Haghighi, and Ali Mansourian

This study examines the relationship between agricultural practices, land abandonment, and the generation of dust storms in the transboundary Tigris and Euphrates River Basin (TERB) from 2000 to 2021.

Problem Statement: Dust storms have emerged as a significant concern in the Middle East, driven by both droughts and anthropogenic activities, particularly in the context of land and water management. These dust storms inflict damage on infrastructure, diminish agricultural productivity, and pose considerable health risks within transboundary river basins. The objective of this study is to identify the underlying drivers of dust storm source generation, with a specific emphasis on the impact of farming patterns and land abandonment following the cropping season.

Methodology: The research integrates spatio-temporal maps that depict land susceptibility to dust storms with agricultural land-use change maps. For this, satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were utilized to identify sources of dust storms. Additionally, machine learning algorithms were employed, incorporating hydrological, topographical, and climatic variables to create dust storm susceptibility maps. Land use and land cover (LULC) data were categorized into bare ground, single cropping, double cropping, and other vegetative types. The study subsequently analyzed the correlations between dust storm sources, land susceptibility, and LULC, focusing on how agricultural practices and land abandonment contribute to the generation of dust storm sources.

Results and Discussion: The analysis indicated a significant correlation between highly susceptible land and an increase in bare ground. The majority of identified dust sources were located on bare ground. Areas designated for single cropping exhibited a higher susceptibility to dust storms compared to those allocated for double cropping. The findings also revealed that annual rainfall has a substantial impact on the percentage of bare ground and the prevalence of dust sources, often with a delay of one year. For example, increased rainfall in 2018 resulted in a decrease in bare ground and dust sources in 2019, while reduced rainfall in 2020 contributed to an increase in bare ground and dust sources in 2021. Although land abandonment following cropping demonstrated a significant potential for dust storm source generation, the conversion of bare ground to cropland effectively lowered dust storm susceptibility, suggesting an inverse relationship between cropping intensity and land vulnerability to dust storms. The results further illustrated that lands that alternate between cropping and fallow periods or are abandoned after cropping are more prone to wind erosion and dust generation.

Conclusion: This study underscores that climate variability and human activities, particularly agricultural practices and land abandonment, are the principal factors influencing dust storm source generation in the TERB. The research emphasizes the critical importance of maintaining year-round vegetation cover, particularly in double cropping systems, as a means of mitigating dust storms. The conclusion drawn from this study advocates for the implementation of sustainable land and water management practices to reduce vulnerability to dust storms, and it calls for further research to explore transboundary water and land management strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of dust storms.

How to cite: Hashemi, H., Abdi, A. M., Naghibi, A., Zhao, P., Brogaard, S., Torabi Haghighi, A., and Mansourian, A.: From Cropland to Dust Source: Land Use Dynamics and Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4676, 2025.

EGU25-4846 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Analysis of water balance and energy system status in Central Asia for  improved modelling in transboundary river basins   

Björn Klöve, Jean-Nicolas Louis, Elyor Shukurov, Matin Rafipour, Taiwo Bamgboye, Rinat Abdurafikov, and Juha Kiviluoma

Water, energy, and food challenges in Central Asia are critical issues, particularly in transboundary river basins like the Amudarya river, where competing demands for limited water resources exacerbate environmental and socio-economic pressures. In Central Asia, e.g. Amudarya river is essential basin for sustainable agriculture in downstream countries like Uzbekistan, which faces significant threats from upstream development projects such as the construction of Rogun Dam in Tajikistan and Qosh Tepa canal in Afghanistan. These ongoing projects are anticipated to decrease water flow significantly, which could severely affect for irrigation systems, increasing energy demands for pumping, and place considerable pressure on agricultural productivity and socio-economic stability. The work presented here aims to integrate water and energy system models to explore water-energy interactions and find sustainable solutions under different scenarios for changes in climate, land, energy and water resources. We use IRENA Flextool for energy and couple it with CWatM and Open Global Glacier Model as hydrological and glacial models, respectively. The presentation will present the current phase of water and energy system analysis of the selected region in Central Asia as well as the current development of model integration. The modelling approach is guided by transboundary case studies from the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan region where transboundary water and energy resources management are characterized by potentially different priorities upstream and downstream countries. The energy system models looks at the operations for power production and is used for planning investments in technologies to support the energy transition in the regions. Hydropower operations are, and will be, strongly influenced by the water availability e.g. precipitations, glaciers, and specific river basins have been selected to assess their operations while integrating an increasing amount of variable renewable energy sources. The water demand, mainly driven by the agricultural activities in Uzbekistan, is dependent on the water available and released from the upstream, both affecting the hydropower production and the transboundary relations. The local and regional setting analysis provides the basis for scenario development on future climate land, energy and water. These water and energy management settings are discussed by examples from the region with the focus on the nexus between water, energy and land.

How to cite: Klöve, B., Louis, J.-N., Shukurov, E., Rafipour, M., Bamgboye, T., Abdurafikov, R., and Kiviluoma, J.: Analysis of water balance and energy system status in Central Asia for  improved modelling in transboundary river basins  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4846, 2025.

Transboundary water resources management in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) faces numerous challenges due to competing water demands, climate variability, impact, lack of adaptive capacity and geopolitical dynamics. Effective governance and cooperation are essential for the sustainable management of shared water resources. This study examines how the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management’s (SASSCAL) and Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP-IWRM) enhances collaborative governance and regional cooperation for transboundary water management in the SADC through targeted skills and capacity development. With financial support from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the SGSP-IWRM Programme provides a strategic platform for strengthening the water sector’ human skills’ capacities and fostering collaboration among the five SASSCAL countries (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia). The study identifies critical technical knowledge, skills, and competencies provided by the SGSP programme which has strengthened collaboration for managing transboundary waters within the SASSCAL member states. It further highlights the impact of customised short courses for capacity enhancement of water resources management professionals and policymakers. This was intended to contribute to bridging professional skill gaps. The study underscores the role of skills and capacity development in enhancing the effectiveness of regional cooperation, ensuring equitable water distribution, and advancing integrated water resources management in the region. Ultimately, it advocates for a comprehensive approach to capacity development that aligns with the strategic goals of the SADC Water Protocol, ensuring long-term sustainability and peace in shared water systems.

How to cite: Dlamini, V., Mabuku, P., and Awofolu, O.: Strengthening collaborative governance and cooperation for transboundary water resources management in SADC through skills and capacity development. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5471, 2025.

EGU25-6415 | Orals | HS5.1.5

The Role of the Turkish Water Project in Altering Water Availability in the Aras River Basin 

Alireza Sharifi Garmdareh and Alireza Gohari

Upstream and regional regulation of the natural flow in the transboundary river basins can place certain parties at a disadvantage, resulting in socioeconomic and environmental challenges. These challenges can lead to asymmetric relationships and even geopolitical issues. The Aras River Basin, a transboundary river shared by Turkiye, Armenia, Iran, and Azerbaijan, has been affected by the regional water development under the DAP mega-project in Turkiye in recent years. To evaluate the impact of the implementation of this project on the Aras River Basin, the inflow to the Aras Dam, a dam located between Iran and Azerbaijan, and drought conditions in the basin were analyzed using the Pettitt test alongside drought indices like SPI, SPEI, and MSDI. Furthermore, to assess spatial/temporal changes in hydrometeorological variables, two non-parametric methods, including the modified Mann-Kendall method (MK3) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), were applied. The results revealed a concerning trend in the Aras River Basin, characterized by decreasing inflow to the dam, no observable trend in precipitation, and rising temperatures. The Pettitt test identified a significant change point in 1995, after which the mean annual inflow to the dam dropped by approximately 800 million cubic meters (MCM), stabilizing around 3,700 MCM. A comparison of monthly mean values before and after this change point indicated that the greatest reduction occurred in May, the period of peak inflow to the dam. The analysis of drought indices further revealed that while precipitation deficits in the late 1990s significantly impacted inflows to the dam, the river has experienced drought conditions in recent years despite adequate precipitation. While climate change and global warming have influenced river flow in the Aras River Basin, the decline in annual mean inflow to the dam closely corresponds to the combined capacity of reservoirs operated by Turkiye after 1995. With the completion and operation of additional dams currently under construction or planned, the inflow to the Aras Dam is projected to decrease further, potentially falling below 1,500 MCM. The declining inflow to the Aras Dam could significantly impact the livelihoods of people in Iran and Azerbaijan living near the river, as well as for local communities. These impacts may lead to socio-economic and geopolitical challenges, like those observed in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the reduced flow in the Aras River decreases inflow to the Caspian Sea, contributing to falling water levels, ecological degradation, and adverse impacts on regional economies and livelihoods.

How to cite: Sharifi Garmdareh, A. and Gohari, A.: The Role of the Turkish Water Project in Altering Water Availability in the Aras River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6415, 2025.

EGU25-6822 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Hydrochemical Characterization of Flow Systems in the Lusaka Aquifer, Zambia 

Muumbe Kenneth Lweendo, Benjamin Benjamin Mapani, Dimitrios Bassukas, Samuel Adelabu, and Christoph Christoph Küells

In data-scarce regions, environmental tracers emerge as a vital tool for characterising groundwater, especially where conventional monitoring methods are limited. This study employed hydrochemical techniques to characterise and develop a conceptual flow model for the Lusaka Aquifer, a crucial water source for the local population threatened by human activities and climate change. 
Preliminary findings indicate that the primary hydrochemical facies within the aquifer are calcium-bicarbonate (Ca-〖HCO〗_3) and calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate (Ca-Mg-〖HCO〗_3). Strong correlations (R² > 0.5) exist between calcium and bicarbonate, magnesium, and bicarbonate, and Sodium and Chloride. Further, carbonate rock weathering, particularly the dissolution of calcite and dolomite, predominantly influences groundwater chemistry, albeit with indications of some anthropogenic influences. Hydrochemical signatures suggest a predominant migration path of water from dolomite to schist and limestone, with some samples suggesting origins from limestone. Isotope data comparing δ²H and δ¹⁸O values for groundwater and precipitation indicate a strong meteoric origin of groundwater recharge. Seasonal variations in precipitation isotope signatures, observed from January to April, further highlight the temporal dynamics of recharge. The groundwater samples were classified into four clusters using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), a multivariate statistical method, to identify distinct hydrochemical endmembers. Cluster 1 consisted of groundwater rich in bicarbonate, calcium, and magnesium, influenced by limestone and dolomite. Cluster 2 represented a mix of natural and urban influences, while Cluster 3 indicated high-quality recharge water characterised by calcite dissolution. Cluster 4 displayed a unique ionic composition, likely shaped by schist and potential contamination. 
The subsequent phase of this study involves establishing a Mixing Cell Model (MCM) to elucidate the flow system and ascertain recharge water composition. This endeavour promises to enhance our understanding of the hydrogeological system, crucial for effective resource management and preservation.
Keywords: Hydrochemistry, groundwater, flow systems, Mixing Cell Model, HCA

How to cite: Lweendo, M. K., Benjamin Mapani, B., Bassukas, D., Adelabu, S., and Christoph Küells, C.: Hydrochemical Characterization of Flow Systems in the Lusaka Aquifer, Zambia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6822, 2025.

EGU25-8800 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Impact of land use changes on water quality at lower Oranger River catchment, South Africa. 

Silas Oyieyo, Luna Bharati, and Christian Borgermeister

Increased nutrient loads from agricultural land use have been associated with water quality deterioration. The Orange River catchment in South Africa faces water quality issues linked to nitrogen (N) leaching and Phosphorus (P) pollution. It is well established that land use changes from natural to anthropogenic purposes have an impact on water quality. An increase in the application of inorganic fertilizer due to the expansion of intensive agriculture and especially irrigation may contribute to water pollution. This research, therefore, presents the effect of land use change on water quality in the Lower Orange River Basin using the Riet_Modder River in the Free State, South Africa watershed. Historical GEMStat water quality data and multi-year LULC mapped from Landsat imagery were used for the analysis. Nutrient (NH4N, NOxN and DRP) concentrations and loads from 1990 to 2020 at the Riet-Modder River watershed were analysed for the trends and their correlation to various land cover classes. Main LULC changes included an eightfold increase in commercial irrigated land area, bare lands by 96%, subsistence lands by 81% and wetlands by -83%. Water quality data at the outlet point showed an increase in NH4N and DRP over the period of study, while NOxN decreased over the period.  NH4N and NOxN loads were reduced, while DRP indicated an increase in all seasons. From the findings, the Riet-Modder River watershed is threatened by water quality deterioration associated with increased commercial irrigated lands, reduced wetlands, subsistence croplands and waste from urban centres. Nitrogen elements, especially (ammonia, ammonium) concentration and phosphorus concentrations, are on the rise, and the water sources in the area are classified as eutrophic. Phosphorus loads transported out of the watershed are also increasing, which will further deteriorate ambient water quality.

How to cite: Oyieyo, S., Bharati, L., and Borgermeister, C.: Impact of land use changes on water quality at lower Oranger River catchment, South Africa., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8800, 2025.

EGU25-9398 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Longterm Actual Evapotranspiration in Afghanistan 

Fazlullah Akhtar, Bernhard Tischbein, Christian Borgemeister, Abdul Haseeb Azizi, and Usman Khalid Awan

Afghanistan contains an irrigated area of approximately 3 million ha, with the remainder consisting of rainfed regions. Agriculture, as the primary consumer of water resources, contributes significantly to the national GDP. The irrigated area undergoes variation from year to year, depending on the availability of water. To understand the variations in actual water consumption by the agriculture sector, it is vital to assess the long-term spatiotemporal variations in actual evapotranspiration (AET) across the country. This study assesses the long-term variation in AET (1983-2023) and its implications for water resource management under changing climate. Utilizing the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) v4.1 dataset, this study investigates long-term AET trends and their relationship with precipitation. Employing statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearman's correlation, the study determines the relationship between AET and precipitation over time. The findings emphasize critical seasonal and spatial patterns, with regions such as the eastern and northeast parts of Afghanistan, AET has increased significantly over time, while in the southern and southwest regions, AET has declined, exacerbated by recurrent droughts. Furthermore, a decline in AET was observed in October in the Northern River Basin and in August in the Harrirod-Murghab River Basin, while an increase was noted in March and May in the Panj-Amu River Basin. Correlation analyses revealed intricate interactions between precipitation and AET, influenced by factors such as groundwater extraction and soil moisture dynamics. A positive correlation was identified between AET and precipitation in northeastern and central regions, while a negative correlation was observed in southwestern and southern areas. These findings provide a foundation for the development of sustainable water management strategies tailored to Afghanistan's distinct hydrological and climatic conditions, offering broader applications for arid and semi-arid regions facing similar challenges.

How to cite: Akhtar, F., Tischbein, B., Borgemeister, C., Azizi, A. H., and Awan, U. K.: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Longterm Actual Evapotranspiration in Afghanistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9398, 2025.

EGU25-9633 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Water Sharing in the Incomati: Can we do it better? 

Sansha van der Merwe, Mikiyas Etichia, Jonathan Lautze, Naga Velpuri, and Julien Harou

While the management of the Incomati River Basin (Eswatini, Mozambique and South Africa) reflects a positive example of sharing water across countries, the basin’s current transboundary water allocation framework requires updating to address emerging challenges such as increased demand and climate variability. Unfortunately, comprehensive basin-wide models to inform this update process are hard to come by. This study enhances a recently developed water allocation model for the Incomati Basin and incorporates stakeholder input from all riparian countries. Stakeholders collaboratively identified priorities, concerns, and potential benefits, leading to the development of alternative allocation scenarios. These scenarios address critical issues such as increasing minimum cross-border flows, aggregating system-wide minimum flows, and the addition of new reservoirs. The scenarios were assessed using key performance indicators, including demand deficits, environmental flow requirements, withdrawal ratios, and annual flow targets. This evaluation framework highlights the trade-offs and benefits associated with various management strategies. Results indicate that alternative water distribution strategies can enhance benefits for all stakeholders while improving environmental sustainability. Notably, the addition of new reservoirs demonstrated the greatest potential for maximizing water resource benefits compared to simply increasing transboundary flows without additional storage capacity. Further analysis provided insights into managing peak flows and drought conditions, emphasizing the role of tailored interventions to enhance system resilience. The findings suggest that INMACOM and riparian countries should consider adopting flexible allocation frameworks that integrate stakeholder input and emphasize sustainable practices. By prioritizing adaptive management, the basin can strengthen resilience to future challenges and foster long-term cooperation.

How to cite: van der Merwe, S., Etichia, M., Lautze, J., Velpuri, N., and Harou, J.: Water Sharing in the Incomati: Can we do it better?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9633, 2025.

EGU25-10217 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Remote Sensing Data Efficacy for Hydro-Climate Characterisation of Rainfall in Data Scarce Areas: A Case of Notwane Sub-Catchment, Botswana 

Catherine Tlotlo Kerapetse, Cosmo Ngongondo, Nils Moosdorf, and Eric Yankson

Technological advancements provide remote sensing (RS) data as a viable option for hydro-climate analysis. In Water resources management, it is important to establish the efficiency and effectiveness of application of the various data products especially in data scarce areas where reliability may contribute significantly to decision making. The study therefore aims to assess the effectiveness of remote sensing products in characterizing the hydro-climate of a data scarce area. In Notwane Sub-Catchment (NSC), the study analyses Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS-v2), Climate Research Unit (CRU), fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) and TERRACLIMATE monthly rainfall data from 1990- 2022 against ground-based gauge data using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for assessing temporal dynamics (r), biasness (β) and variability (γ); and scatterplots were applied to compare the two datasets conformity and reliability. Spatio-temporal analysis was performed using the CUSUM and non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test at α=0.05 level. KGE results averaged at 0.52 with r, β and γ at 0.67,1.00 and 0.81 respectively. Mann Kendall test picked some natural fluctuations consistent with CUSUM, of wet and dry seasons without any significant changes. CHIRPS-v2 overestimated low and underestimated high rainfall at 55% and 45% respectively. Two distinct wet and dry seasons were observed similar to the seasonality observed with gauge data. The study effectively characterised the spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall using remote sensing data and validated CHIRPS-v2 data as an alternative remote sensing product for data scarce areas. The study contribute knowledge to data scarce area on application of remote sensing data.

How to cite: Kerapetse, C. T., Ngongondo, C., Moosdorf, N., and Yankson, E.: Remote Sensing Data Efficacy for Hydro-Climate Characterisation of Rainfall in Data Scarce Areas: A Case of Notwane Sub-Catchment, Botswana, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10217, 2025.

EGU25-12264 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

Multi-Scale Wavelet Analysis of Okavango River discharge patterns at the Mohembo station upstream the Okavango Delta, Botswana 

Otlaadisa Tafila, Seifeddine Jomaa, David Labat, Rakesh Kumar, Ditiro Moalafhi, Eric Yankson, and Michael Rode

Analysis of temporal variability of Okavango River discharge time series is important in revealing the hydrological processes and processes in a semi-arid system. The aim of analyzing the discharge patterns was to determine periodicities and temporal evolution of stream flow regime of the transboundary Okavango River system over a 90-year time series (1930 – 2020). Using the Daubechies wavelet transform for multiresolution decomposition, several significant periodicities at multiple temporal scales were identified. The analysis revealed dominant cycles across varying timescales; semi-annual (0.5 years), annual (1-year) and multiyear (8 and 10 years) cyclic patterns suggesting complex hydroclimatic influences from the upstream Angolan highlands. Cross-wavelet analysis between the river discharge and precipitation in the headwaters highlighted the evolution of the identified periodicities and their spatial coherence across the transboundary basin. Of particular significance was the discharge patterns which showed declining flows over time due to the absence of historically prevalent peak flows in recent decades. The findings provide vital insights which would enable better prediction of flow patterns to inform adaptive management strategies and sustainable use of the available water resources. With the growing hydroclimatic uncertainty in the region, the periodicities and temporal patterns provide a basis for improving resilience of water management systems.

How to cite: Tafila, O., Jomaa, S., Labat, D., Kumar, R., Moalafhi, D., Yankson, E., and Rode, M.: Multi-Scale Wavelet Analysis of Okavango River discharge patterns at the Mohembo station upstream the Okavango Delta, Botswana, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12264, 2025.

EGU25-15320 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.1.5

Impacts of drought on surface water storage in India 

M Niranjan Naik and Vimal Mishra

Water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs are essential components of the hydrological cycle, providing water for agriculture, domestic use, industry, and supporting biodiversity and energy production. In India, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, these water bodies serve as vital lifelines by storing monsoon precipitation and ensuring year-round water availability. Despite their importance, the large-scale impact of drought on Indian water bodies has not been thoroughly explored. This study examines spatio-temporal variations in water area and quantifies the impacts of drought using remotely sensed data from Landsat satellites (4, 5, 7, and 8) and climate variables from 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that 35% of water bodies show significant declining trends, with average reductions of 10% in the long-term mean maximum area and 5% in the minimum area. The decline in water area is most pronounced during droughts, severely affecting small water bodies that shrink more rapidly than medium and large ones. Moreover, the duration of a 20% reduction in water area decreases by 1 month during drought periods. The findings reveal that combined monsoon and post-monsoon droughts have significantly impacted water areas, particularly in central and southern India. Therefore, the rapidly shrinking water bodies identified in this study can contribute to improved water resource management by enabling the development of an early warning system in India.

How to cite: Naik, M. N. and Mishra, V.: Impacts of drought on surface water storage in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15320, 2025.

EGU25-17800 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Future Extreme Precipitation Trends under Climate Change over the Caspian Sea  

Indiana A. Olbert and Sogol Moradian

Climate change is anticipated to alter the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, with profound implications for vulnerable regions such as the Caspian Sea. This study investigates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, a region particularly sensitive to climatic shifts due to its geographical position and isolation from major oceans. Using bias-corrected precipitation data from the General Circulation Models- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and historical reference data from ERA5, this research applies advanced extreme value analysis to examine trends under two climate scenarios. The results reveal an increase in average precipitation from the historical period to the future period (1980-2100), highlighting the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, the analysis projects a rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, with more intense droughts and floods expected to emerge. Extreme value distributions fitted to the precipitation data confirm these findings, showing higher tail probabilities for extreme events under future scenarios. These changes underscore the need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate potential socio-economic and ecological impacts. By providing a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation extremes and their future trends, this study contributes valuable insights into the expected hydrological changes in the Caspian Sea region, which can inform water resource management, disaster risk reduction, and climate policy.

How to cite: Olbert, I. A. and Moradian, S.: Future Extreme Precipitation Trends under Climate Change over the Caspian Sea , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17800, 2025.

EGU25-18614 | Posters on site | HS5.1.5

Dynamics of Expectations, (Dis)satisfaction, and Participation in Changing States of Water Governance Systems 

Peyman Arjomandi, Seyedalireza Seyedi, and Nadejda Komendantova

As global water challenges intensify, governance frameworks are undergoing significant transformations, with a growing emphasis on managing water demand and rationalizing supply expectations. The expectations of water actors across diverse contexts and spatial scales shape their satisfaction with water supply and allocation rates, influencing governance outcomes. This dynamic, in turn, impacts their participation and ability to drive governance system reforms and influence overall outcomes.

Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, this study examines the interplay between these elements across various governance models. It highlights the role of exogenous factors—such as water availability, requirements, resources, capabilities, and political, socioeconomic, or psychological parameters—that shape objectives, cognition, decision-making processes, and adaptability.

The research underscores the critical importance of revising expectations to promote satisfaction, thereby fostering greater participation and refining governance outcomes. By exploring how the participation and consent of water demand and supply management actors can strengthen governance systems, this study provides actionable recommendations for fostering collaboration, aligning expectations, and improving satisfaction to support resilient water governance reforms.

Ultimately, this study aims to enhance governance structures in shared water basins affected by fragmented jurisdictional and spatial scales, where differentiated political-administrative mechanisms manage water resources, including supply and demand.

How to cite: Arjomandi, P., Seyedi, S., and Komendantova, N.: Dynamics of Expectations, (Dis)satisfaction, and Participation in Changing States of Water Governance Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18614, 2025.

Water security is essential for sustainable development in transboundary river basins, and increasing water scarcity puts pressure on transboundary cooperation and regional development, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. A linear model of science and policy relations and the absence of society in this interface are obstacles to addressing socio-ecological challenges. With a case study of the Central Asian region, this research explores how science-policy-society interactions can be improved to address water security in the transboundary basins. The study synthesizes previous research on water security and aims to identify barriers to science-policy-society interaction.  The scientific literature raises the climate risks and the environmental aspects of water security, highlighting nature-based solutions and the need to account for ecosystem services. Policymakers are developing strategies and programs to ensure water security at the national level, mainly through technocentric policies that prioritize infrastructural solutions. The challenge is not only to bridge the gap between science and policy but also to involve society in this interface, which remains largely unexplored. Building community resilience at the local level is critical, as communities will face the consequences of water and climate inactions. Addressing communication and engagement gaps, improving the capacity of knowledge brokers and knowledge synthesisers, and co-producing water solutions are essential for sustainable and inclusive policies to address water security challenges at different levels. Not only political and socio-economic developments and climate variability in the region but also the interaction between science, policy and society will influence whether the countries of the Aral Sea basin can ensure water security in the region and build resilience or whether countries move towards securitising water resources for national interests.

How to cite: Assubayeva, A.: Science-policy-society interface for water security in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18642, 2025.

EGU25-18915 | Orals | HS5.1.5

Fostering Collaboration for Transboundary Water Governance: Insights from Stakeholder Engagement in the Naryn and Kara Darya Basins 

Zafar Gafurov, Maha Al-Zu'bi, Shavkat Kenjabaev, and Bunyod Holmatov

Managing transboundary water resources presents a complex challenge, shaped by diverse interests, governance structures, and socio-economic contexts across political and geographic boundaries. The contrasting conditions between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan call for tailored, context-specific strategies rather than universal solutions. From 2023 to 2024, researchers conducted an extensive eleven-month stakeholder consultation across various sectors in both countries. This process engaged local, national, and regional partners and institutions to identify, analyze, and categorize stakeholders based on attributes such as power, interest, influence, gender, expectations, roles, sectoral backgrounds, and networks.

The study aimed to foster transboundary water collaboration and enhance decision-making in the Naryn and Kara Darya Basins, where shared water resources pose significant challenges. The findings underscore the need for a collaborative, inclusive, and participatory approach to effectively address these challenges. By emphasizing sustainable water governance and strengthening regional cooperation, the approach seeks to resolve historical frictions, build resilient partnerships, and ensure the equitable and sustainable management of shared water resources in Central Asia.

How to cite: Gafurov, Z., Al-Zu'bi, M., Kenjabaev, S., and Holmatov, B.: Fostering Collaboration for Transboundary Water Governance: Insights from Stakeholder Engagement in the Naryn and Kara Darya Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18915, 2025.

EGU25-19724 | ECS | Orals | HS5.1.5

A political sociology perspective on the hydraulic mission in the Global South 

Paria Mamasani, Milad Jafari, Hojjat Mianabadi, and Sahand Ghadimi

The hydraulic mission, once considered a cornerstone of development in developed countries, is now largely viewed as outdated due to its environmental consequences. Despite these drawbacks, this approach persists as a socio-economic development strategy, particularly in the Global South, often intertwined with water nationalism and nation-state building. While political economy and geoeconomic perspectives explain the continued pursuit of the hydraulic mission, this paper proposes an additional interpretation. Specifically, certain dams constructed in upstream riparian states—often less developed and economically disadvantaged compared to their downstream counterparts—acquire symbolic significance, becoming potent emblems of national pride and fostering strong communal bonds. Analyzing these dams through a political sociology lens, we argue that these extraordinary infrastructures are perceived as a solution for countries grappling with a feeling of relative deprivation. This feeling is not merely objective; it is a historically constructed one, rooted in perceived injustices and inequitable resource distribution, and deeply embedded within the social structure. These social forces intertwine with transboundary water politics, wherein the hydraulic mission becomes an instrument for overcoming this perceived relative deprivation. This dynamic also manifests in the hydropolitical discourse of affected states, narratives of entitlement over the ownership of transboundary waters emerge. These narratives often claim that shared water resources have fueled the development of downstream states while upstream states have been unjustly deprived, and consequently, that upstream development through withholding and diverting transboundary water can achieve parity. This pattern can be observed in hydraulic infrastructures such as the Rogun Dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the Kamal-Khan Dam. These examples share similar characteristics: upstream states are typically less developed than their downstream states, have experienced historically coerced zero-sum cooperation, or a deficiency of development stemming from prolonged conflict. These dams often have unique features that make them exceptional, such as immense storage capacities that take decades to fill or deliberate water diversions that alter the river course. While prior analyses have acknowledged the subjective dimensions of the hydraulic mission, including identity, discourse and political values, a political sociology approach highlights the impact of relative deprivation as a driving force behind hydraulic mission. This feeling explains the politicization and securitization of water discourse, which frame the elimination of deprivation and the achievement of parity as essential. It also explains nation-state building and polarized identity formation. The specific characteristics and intentional impacts of these dams, serving as emblems of national pride and dignity, are also explained by the theory of relative deprivation. Furthermore, responses to relative deprivation can lead to transboundary water conflicts as incompatibilities emerge over resource control, endangering the water security and environmental stability of downstream states, and potentially leading to further political instability. Therefore, it is imperative to recognize, especially when upstream nations in a transboundary river basin are politically, socially and economically disadvantaged compared to downstream states, that the hydraulic mission should be understood not just in terms of socio-economic development, but also as a mechanism for addressing and alleviating a deeply ingrained feeling of relative deprivation.

How to cite: Mamasani, P., Jafari, M., Mianabadi, H., and Ghadimi, S.: A political sociology perspective on the hydraulic mission in the Global South, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19724, 2025.

53% of the world’s large lakes have shrunk and major rivers have been disappearing around the globe for the past 28 years, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, causing global security issues. Currently, there are 2.3 billion people in water-stressed countries, 2.2 billion people without access to safe drinking water, 3.5 billion people without access to safely managed sanitation, and  2.2 billion people without handwashing facilities, as indicated in UN SDG statistics. These problems increase conflicts between neighboring states. The Pacific Institute’s annual Water Conflict Chronology report indicates (as cited in Forbes, August 23, 2023) that there were  “347 instances of water-related armed conflict in 2023, compared to 231 in 2022”. Limited cooperation between countries has become a trigger mechanism for breaking out such conflicts. According to the UN Water Conference Press Release (2023), 60% of the freshwater flows in the transboundary rivers and lakes and approximately 3 million reside in these wetlands.  However, approximately 60% of the basins sharing transboundary waters lack cooperative frameworks to share water states say scientists from the University of Missouri. Finally,UNDP report also states that half of the world’s transboundary waters still lack an operational cooperative arrangement and that there is an urgent need to support countries to develop the capacity to sustainably manage shared waters as the world approaches 2030. Hence, the Caspian Sea Basin has been growing exponentially since 2015 and has reached a record low level of water in the sea, threatening the region with similar socio-economic and security risks. Therefore, an urgency for improved cooperation has emerged as a need for a water diplomacy framework application and practice in the shared waters of the Caspian Sea Basin as well. M. Climes et al., (2019) define, “ Water diplomacy as an approach that enables a variety of stakeholders to assess ways to contribute to finding solutions for joint management of shared freshwater resources.” (Introduction sec.)  Thus, the purpose of this article explores the ways the water diplomacy approach impacts the regional water security in the shared water basin amidst climate change in the Caspian Sea Basin. The author looks at five indicators of water diplomacy that impact foreign policy and water management in the Caspian Sea Basin: political, cooperative, preventive, integrative, and technical.  

The research applies a qualitative approach. The interview questions will analyze the attitudes, opinions, and behaviors of actors such as politicians, governors, technical water experts, industries, and farmers on the Sea Basin coastlines. (small, medium, big) in Azerbaijan, Georgia (Kura River), and Russia (Volga River). In addition, desktop research will analyze the existing data and research, regulatory documents, and international conventions. The paper aims out how the five indicators political, cooperative, preventive, integrative, and technical have influenced the level of water in the transboundary rivers flowing through Georgia throughout time throughout the past 10 years. The findings will help to understand the key bottlenecks of the current cooperation in the Caspian Sea Basin and provide further recommendations for improving cooperation among the riparian countries in the basin.

 

How to cite: Baghirova, N. and Safarov, E.: Role of transboundary river cooperation in addressing the challenges of the water basin security., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20388, 2025.

EGU25-20601 | Orals | HS5.1.5

The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins 

Hojjat Mianabadi, Fatemeh Farzaneh, Behnam Andik, and Sahand Ghadimi

New global challenges, such as the intense desire for development and climate change, can exacerbate water conflicts among stakeholders (at local, regional, national, and international levels).  Discourses and narratives produced by the media, alongside objective factors, play a decisive role in shaping water interactions, a topic that has received less attention. The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of media on transboundary water interactions. The use of media to advance the interests of states within a basin often strengthens the potential for water conflicts. Therefore, constructive changes in water diplomacy and conflict transformation require an understanding of the media's role in water cooperation and disputes. This understanding is essential for shaping the water policies of riparian countries.

How to cite: Mianabadi, H., Farzaneh, F., Andik, B., and Ghadimi, S.: The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20601, 2025.

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) maps are used to plan management decisions in contexts of high uncertainty, such as those driven by environmental changes affecting critical assets. Recent discussions emphasize their relevance for addressing complex common-pool resource challenges, where diverse species, actors, and ecosystem services are intricately connected. However, designing DAPPs for such multifaceted social-ecological systems (SES) is challenging due to the extensive range of potential adaptation options.

This study presents a general method to address these challenges by leveraging Ostrom’s theoretical frameworks for the governance of common pool resources – the Institutional Analysis & Development framework (IADF), the Social-Ecological Systems framework (SESF), and the Coupled Infrastructure Systems framework (CISF). These frameworks were used to design nested DAPP maps that structure a large number of adaptation actions across multiple levels of institutional arrangement (operational, collective-choice, constitutional), and then develop a mathematical model to analyze the dynamic robustness of a SES across all potential pathways.

The method was applied to predict and understand DAPP maps for supporting the collective management of hedgerow networks delivering diverse ecosystem services. DAPP maps for two SES were compared – one rural and one peri-urban – in France’s agro-ecological landscapes of the Auvergne region. We further modeled the impact of climate change on hedgerows characterized by different size and species richness, revealing the sensitivity of these DAPP maps to transit between nine nested institutional arrangements.

We discuss the methodological and practical implications of this approach for managing SES characterized by greater diversities of interconnected species, actors, and ecosystem services, highlighting its strengths and challenges in guiding adaptation under deep uncertainty.

How to cite: Pichancourt, J.-B., Brias, A., and Bonis, A.: Integrating Adaptation Pathways and Ostrom's Framework for Sustainable Governance of Social-Ecological Systems in a Changing World, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2561, 2025.

Dynamic and adaptive policy pathways frameworks are being increasingly applied to guide deeply uncertain water infrastructure investments and adaptation strategies in systems around the world. Evolutionary multi-objective reinforcement learning (eMORL) has direct value for advancing these frameworks by improving our ability to better represent complex state-actions dynamics across actors and timescales.  eMORL frameworks offer the potential to better understand the dynamics of state-aware actions that are contextually appropriate to the specific states of the world being experienced by system actors. However, the implications of the tradeoffs represented across alternative adaptive water supply investment policies pose nontrivial communication challenges. Investment pathways performance tradeoffs are typically communicated using highly aggregated metrics distilled to a single, expected value across actors and time. Here, this work addresses two main challenges. First, aggregated summary metrics do not capture the time-varying impacts of deeply uncertain (DU) factors on individual and system-wide performance and robustness. Second, aggregated summary metrics do not convey transparently state-action interdependencies between actors and performance objectives across time.

Our results address these challenges using a six-utility cooperative water supply infrastructure investment pathways example for the Research Triangle region in North Carolina. In our results, we contribute by-world, by-actor investment pathway diagnostics that clarify the consequential external deep uncertainties and state information feedbacks over time that strongly shape individuals’ adaptive actions. First, time-varying SHAP analysis clarifies the dynamics of which DU factors explain significant robustness shifts over time and across actors. Second, Information Theoretic Sensitivity Analysis identifies the key state variables that drive actions for each utility during specific periods of stress. In summary, our results can help decision-makers better understand how to navigate evolving vulnerabilities in their investment pathways and improve monitoring strategies to track changes consequential deep uncertainties over time.

How to cite: Reed, P. and Lau, L.: Exploiting multi-objective reinforcement learning and explainable artificial intelligence to better navigate deep uncertainties in water supply infrastructure pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2893, 2025.

The increasing variability of climate conditions introduces substantial uncertainty into water system planning, making it more challenging to enhance system resilience. Achieving cost-efficient planning, where actual pressures can be addressed with minimal investment, remains critical. While Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches show promise, their cost-efficiency is rarely evaluated, and lengthy monitoring requirements limit post-implementation assessments. This study proposes a novel benchmarking framework for pre-implementation evaluation of DMDU methods. The framework uses historical climate data to simulate planning outcomes under uncertain future climates. It compares these outcomes to theoretical cost-optimal scenarios, thus offering quantitative insights for refining DMDU strategies to improve cost-efficiency.

The framework is demonstrated through a fluvial flood resilience case study in Luton, UK, focusing on real options. The results reveal that the original real options approach underinvests in the early stages of planning, leading to notable resilience deficits. A refined real options strategy mitigates these deficits by increasing investments but at the expense of higher total costs throughout the planning period. Moving forward, refinements should emphasise improving climate projections and avoiding interventions that do not effectively enhance resilience. The benchmarking framework provides a valuable tool for researchers and planners to evaluate and strengthen resilience planning strategies in water systems.

 

How to cite: Mijic, A., Liu, L., and Pianosi, F.: A Benchmarking Framework for Refining DMDU Approaches Toward Cost-Efficient Water System Resilience Under Deep Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4967, 2025.

EGU25-7555 | PICO | HS5.1.7

A Feature Selection Framework for Enhancing Interpretability and Performance in Multi-Objective Water Systems Operations 

Guang Yang, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, and Zengchuan Dong

The operation of water resources is inherently complex, necessitating the reconciliation of competing objectives, the cooperation of interconnected infrastructures, and adherence to various regulations and stakeholder perspectives. Multi-objective optimization methods have emerged as powerful tools for addressing these complexities by enabling decision-makers to balance conflicting goals. The effectiveness of these methods is contingent upon the input variables utilized in water resource operation models. However, decision-makers often find it challenging to understand how different input variables impact optimization performance regarding different objectives, thereby reducing the interpretability of these models and impeding their practical application in real-world contexts. In this regard, the careful selection of input variables can enhance both the efficacy and interpretability of multi-objective water resource operations. We proposed a feature selection approach to assess the significance of various input variables in water system operation models under differing decision-making preferences and extract the most relevant information to alleviate conflicts among competing objectives. The approach is demonstrated on a cascade reservoir system within the Nile river basin, where the primary functions are power generation and irrigation water supply. A systematic feature selection framework that integrates Recursive Feature Elimination with Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search is employed to analyze the importance of various input variables in cascade reservoir management and identify the optimal input variables for operational policies tailored to specific decision-making preferences.

The application of this input variable selection framework in the multi-objective optimization of Nile operation policies yielded several key insights: (1) input variables that reflect collaborative operations among different reservoirs consistently received higher importance rankings in the selection process; (2) the use of these selected input variables significantly alleviated conflicts between power generation and irrigation water supply, especially when minimizing irrigation deficits was a priority; and (3) customizing reservoir operation policies with input variables chosen based on decision-making preferences enhanced the performance of the respective objectives. particularly when a lower irrigation deficit is desired. Furthermore, customizing reservoir operation policies with input variables chosen based on decision-making preferences can enhance the performance of the relevant objectives. Our findings also highlight the value of incorporating the water level of neighboring reservoirs as an input variable, when there exist multiple reservoirs within the operation system. Additionally, the study revealed that reservoirs with different operational targets—such as hydropower generation or irrigation supply—require distinct input variables. Interestingly, some of the selected variables lie outside the conventional set of inputs, which suggests the potential benefits of incorporating unconventional or external information into water system operations. This proposed framework holds promise for improving the interpretability of machine learning-based operational policies for water resource systems and fostering a stronger connection between these complex systems and their human operators.

How to cite: Yang, G., Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., and Dong, Z.: A Feature Selection Framework for Enhancing Interpretability and Performance in Multi-Objective Water Systems Operations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7555, 2025.

EGU25-8056 | ECS | PICO | HS5.1.7

A Dutch Perspective to Bridge Scientific DMDU Knowledge and Drinking Water Practice 

Joeri Willet and Peter van Thienen

Title: A Dutch Perspective to Bridge Scientific DMDU Knowledge and Drinking Water Practice

author(s): Joeri Willet1, Peter van Thienen1

affiliation(s): 1KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, Netherlands

There is an emerging realization of the value of methods for decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) in the Dutch drinking water industry. However, we ascertain that there is a disconnect between science and practice which hinders effective adoption of DMDU methods, at least in the Dutch drinking water context. We identify that scientific research tends to focus on large scale/global sources of deep uncertainty (such as climate change and shifts human populations) and their potential impacts. Practitioners acknowledge the existence of these global uncertainties but tend to characterize small scale/local processes (such as stakeholder preferences) as deeply uncertainty. This disconnect between science and practice poses a challenge for effective adaptive planning, especially in a sector where historically the flexibility of solutions (infrastructure) has been low, and reveals the need for more efforts to disseminate DMDU as an approach for the uncertain future.

In the Netherlands DMDU approaches can be valuable to deal with the decreasing availability of water sources and reductions in water quality, both of which are subject to deep uncertainty. The interactions between multiple sectors and multiple sources of uncertainty should be considered, as confirmed by experts at drinking water companies. We therefore see DAPP-MR (Schlumberger et al., 2022) as a promising DMDU method in this context, which we are preparing to pilot. In addition we identify the need for effective collaboration processes which facilitate ‘joint fact finding’, ‘joint exploration’ and ‘joint decision making’ between stakeholders to move from traditional approaches towards DMDU approaches. In this contribution we will discuss the learning process we envision for this.       

Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., de Ruiter, M., & Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2022). Towards a Disaster Risk Management Pathways Framework for Complex and Dynamic Multi-Risk: DAPP-MR. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4164233

 

How to cite: Willet, J. and van Thienen, P.: A Dutch Perspective to Bridge Scientific DMDU Knowledge and Drinking Water Practice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8056, 2025.

EGU25-8685 | ECS | PICO | HS5.1.7

Interactive multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization for decision-making under deep uncertainty 

Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan Kwakkel, and Kaisa Miettinen

This study proposes a novel approach for integrating interactive multi-objective optimization into Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) to involve decision-makers during the solution process. Unlike the a posteriori methods, this involvement provides an intuitive learning phase for the decision-maker with complete control to search and uncover the problem characteristics, the feasibility of their preferences, how uncertainty may affect the outcomes of a decision, and explore various parts of the Pareto fronts, one at a time, significantly reducing cognitive load and computation resources. We further introduce a hypothetical water management problem as a new benchmark problem for robust decision-making with multiple objectives under deep uncertainty, which is most suited for properly showcasing the robustness optimality trade-offs. Utilizing this example, we illustrate the stages and interactions of the proposed approach as a proof of concept. 

How to cite: Shavazipour, B., Kwakkel, J., and Miettinen, K.: Interactive multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization for decision-making under deep uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8685, 2025.

Effective transboundary river management requires systematic, collaborative efforts among nations sharing a river basin to ensure sustainable and equitable water resource allocation, support energy generation and food security, mitigate environmental impacts, and preserve the ecological integrity of river systems. This study introduces a novel framework for incorporating equity into the systemwide optimization of transboundary river operations, explicitly addressing the asymmetrical distribution of energy and water supply risks among riparian nations. Unlike traditional approaches based on game theory and hydro-economic modeling, which focus on static compensatory schemes for cooperative management, our framework leverages dynamic operational flexibility to achieve equitable and robust water resource allocation within the existing and planned infrastructure. The framework employs multi-objective robust optimization at the basin scale to generate adaptive operational strategies that incrementally integrate inequality aversion in hydropower benefits among nations, as quantified by the Atkinson inequality index. Through fully coordinated reservoir operations, the approach adaptively allocates water flow and storage in response to changing hydrological conditions, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits and trade-offs across riparian states. We demonstrate this methodology using the Zambezi River basin, where planned dams in the upper (Zambia and Zimbabwe) and lower reaches (Mozambique) are projected to double hydropower capacity. Results highlight that incorporating equity considerations yields hydrologically robust strategies that balance trade-offs between hydropower production, irrigation demands, and environmental flow requirements at the national level. These findings underscore the transformative potential of adopting dynamic, equity-focused approaches to transboundary water resource management in the face of escalating climate variability and uncertainty.

How to cite: Castelletti, A., Arnold, W., and Giuliani, M.: Enhancing Robustness and Addressing Inequities through Operational Flexibility in Cooperative River Basin Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10724, 2025.

EGU25-12371 | ECS | PICO | HS5.1.7

Normatively Robust Mitigation Policy to Equitably Distribute the Remaining Carbon Budget 

Palok Biswas, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, and Jan Kwakkel


Addressing climate change through collective action is hindered by the unequal distribution of burdens and responsibilities and deep uncertainties inherent in the Human-Earth system. As a result, policymakers must navigate both empirical uncertainties within socioeconomic and climate systems, as well as normative uncertainties stemming from stakeholders' diverse values. Addressing these value differences is critical, as perceptions of fairness in mitigation policies are essential for their acceptance and implementation. While classical decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) techniques have not yet been applied to problems involving normative uncertainty, they can be adapted for climate policymaking where multiple stakeholders hold conflicting values and policy objectives.

This study integrates three principles of distributive justice—Limitarianism, Utilitarianism, and Prioritarianism—to allocate the remaining carbon budget necessary to limit global warming below 2°C. We apply Limitarianism using emergent constraints—an established climate modelling method that identifies a remaining carbon budget robust across diverse climate and socioeconomic uncertainties—to determine a carbon budget that achieves the 2°C target. Building upon this robust emission limit, we compare Utilitarian and Prioritarian frameworks to distribute the remaining carbon budget among different nations and generations. The JUSTICE Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) operationalizes these principles within a multi-objective framework to search for Pareto-optimal mitigation policies that balance environmental and economic objectives while evaluating policy options through various lenses of distributive justice.

We utilize two established decision-making frameworks to develop adaptive mitigation policies: Multi-Objective Robust Decision-Making (MORDM) and Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS). MORDM rigorously tests potential policies against deep uncertainties to identify robust, Pareto-optimal choices. Simultaneously, EMODPS fine-tunes policies to reconcile stakeholders' diverse objectives, ensuring policies are adaptive and robust across both empirical uncertainties and normative values. These adaptive policies utilize feedback mechanisms providing flexibility to accommodate diverse future scenarios. This flexibility also facilitates the management of trade-offs between conflicting goals and values.

Our findings demonstrate that normatively robust policies can bridge the gap among policymakers with diverse perspectives by maintaining robustness across deep uncertainties, conflicting ethical viewpoints, and multiple objectives. We highlight the pivotal role of normative clarity in facilitating stakeholder dialogue and ensuring that climate policies are scientifically sound and socially equitable.

How to cite: Biswas, P., Zatarain Salazar, J., and Kwakkel, J.: Normatively Robust Mitigation Policy to Equitably Distribute the Remaining Carbon Budget, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12371, 2025.

EGU25-13454 | PICO | HS5.1.7

Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in Poorly Gauged Catchments  

Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova

In catchments that are poorly monitored or in catchments that are not gauged, the degree of uncertainty in predicting flood risk is high. This is unfortunately a very common picture in Bulgaria. The presence of climate change and the uncertainty in the determination of key input parameters such as peak water discharge, Manning's roughness coefficient, etc. introduce a deep uncertainty in flood modelling.  Under these conditions, in the search for adaptive and reliable flood risk management strategies, uncertainty is quantified using the Monte Carlo method to generate probabilistic results and by analyzing it using Information-gap decision theory, a non-probabilistic method that is a quantified theory of robustness.

How to cite: Mavrova-Guirguinova, M.: Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in Poorly Gauged Catchments , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13454, 2025.

EGU25-13694 | PICO | HS5.1.7

The value of sensitivity analysis for the evaluation and use of water resource models under deep uncertainty 

Francesca Pianosi, Saskia Salwey, Gemma Coxon, Doris Wendt, and Anna Murgatroyd

Computational modelling provides a vital tool to evaluate risks and benefits of different investment or management options on a virtual system before they are implemented on real water resource systems. In England and Wales, models are used to inform a range of decisions across different spatial and temporal scales – from company-level operational decisions during individual drought events to strategic infrastructure investment decisions at the national scale. Model outputs though are conditional on a range of uncertain assumptions and input data, due to our incomplete or imperfect knowledge of the drivers and the properties of the system being modelled. When models are used for long-term planning, the uncertainty about the current properties and drivers of the system is compounded with deep (i.e. poorly characterised) uncertainty about how these will evolve in the future.

In this talk we will present results from the USARIS (Uncertainty quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Resilient Infrastructure Systems) project [ST/Y003713/1], which aims at setting the foundations for integrating Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis (UQ&SA) functionalities in the UK DAFNI (Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure) platform (https://www.dafni.ac.uk/). We will discuss the value of global Sensitivity Analysis to systematically analyse the impact of varying uncertain factors and decision levers on model predictions and hence improve both the model evaluation and its use for decision-making under deep uncertainty - and demonstrate it by application to Pywr-WREW, the Python-based national-scale water resources model for England and Wales.

We will focus on a complex, multi-reservoir system in the Northumbrian region, and analyse the relative influence of the model’s decision levers (changes to operational preferences and management decisions) and uncertain inputs and properties (future climate, demand and environmental flow requirements) on a range of performance metrics. At the model evaluation stage, the global SA helps us to sense-check the model (i.e. making sure that the “right” input controls the “right” output) and to ensure that model predictions are sufficiently controlled by decision levers relative to the impact of other uncertain factors (otherwise the model would not be suitable for decision-making). At the options appraisal stage, the same methodology can be used (under the assumption “system=model”) to determine the key drivers of the future system performance (e.g. supply-side vs demand-side) and begin to identify “robust” decisions that work sufficiently well across a range of uncertain futures. Finally, we will discuss the scalability of our proposed approach to more complex/larger-scale systems, and blockers and enablers for uptake by practitioners in water companies and environment agencies.

How to cite: Pianosi, F., Salwey, S., Coxon, G., Wendt, D., and Murgatroyd, A.: The value of sensitivity analysis for the evaluation and use of water resource models under deep uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13694, 2025.

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in south-eastern Australia is one of the world’s largest rivers, draining an area of just over 1 million km2. However, being primarily in a semi-arid region, its discharge is much smaller than that from other similarly sized rivers worldwide. Despite its relatively low discharge, the MDB is the most significant agricultural area in Australia contributing $30 billion to the Australian economy each year. The MDB is also home to a thriving ecosystem with over 100 species of native and migratory birds, and 50 species of native fish.

Climate change projections for the MDB for ~2050 indicate a future that will be hotter with a very likely accompanying increase in extreme rainfall, but other aspects of its climate in the future are more uncertain (terms in italics reflect the IPCC definitions of likelihood as per https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2017/08/AR5_Uncertainty_Guidance_Note.pdf). For example, a reduction in cool season rainfall is less certain but still likely, with an assessment of 40 CMIP6 global climate models indicating a median reduction in cool season rainfall averaged across the MDB of about 5% for 1.5 °C global warming relative to 1990. There is however a large range across the CMIP6 models, from a small increase in rainfall to a decrease of more than 10%. As the cool season is when the majority of runoff is generated in the southern Basin, these changes in rainfall and accompanying very likely increases in potential evapotranspiration (due primarily to higher temperatures) are modelled to lead to changes in water availability ranging from a small increase to a decrease of nearly 30% with a median reduction of over 10%.

While there is considerable uncertainty in determining the impacts of climate change in the MDB, it is likely that there will be reductions in water availability, particularly in the southern basin. This conclusion therefore provides water managers with some degree of certainty. Based on this likely outcome, water managers can use numerical and conceptual models to assess the impacts of a range of adaptation measures which are designed to minimise the effects of a drying climate on the values (or assets) deemed important by the community. This presentation will summarize the range of projected climate change impacts on water availability and discuss the implications of these uncertainties for basin management.

 

How to cite: Post, D.: Water Resource Planning Under Deep Uncertainty: Adapting to Climate Change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14056, 2025.

EGU25-15775 | PICO | HS5.1.7

Dam reoperation to reconcile agricultural sustainability with native fish habitat and competition with invasive fish species in semi-arid areas 

Francisco Martinez-Capel, Héctor Macian-Sorribes, Rafael Muñoz-Mas, Daniele Peano, Francisco J. Oliva-Paterna, and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

Global change impacts are likely to compromise agricultural benefits and the ecological status of rivers. The latter would be caused by modifications in fish population dynamics as fish species react in different ways against hydrological changes, and the establishment of alien and invasive fish species. To guarantee native fish sustainability, impact assessment studies should encompass habitat evaluations and competition assessment under future scenarios (i.e., including future hydrological scenarios and land use, and changes in agricultural demands). Moreover, their interplay with economic uses should also be considered, designing adaptation measures that take advantage of synergies and minimize trade-offs between them. Dam reoperation is a promising alternative to this end, given its direct and immediate impact on downstream streamflows and its absence of building costs. However, it requires consensus between water users, including native fish; thus, it should be carefully evaluated taking into account stakeholders’ views.

This contribution presents a framework to develop dam reoperation strategies that simultaneously address global change impacts on agricultural benefits, native fish habitat and competition with invasive fish species in a water resource system. The developed methodological framework has been tested in the Serpis River Basin (Spain). The global change scenarios combined CMIP6 climate change projections with three land use scenarios: current crop surface and technology (reference), drip irrigation implementation and drip irrigation with changes in crop types and areas. Hydrological discharges associated with climate change scenarios were derived using the Témez conceptual hydrological model. Future crop water needs were estimated, for each climate scenario, using the AQUACROP model. The changes in the agricultural benefits related to these scenarios were obtained with a hydroeconomic model developed with the GAMS software. The effects in the availability of suitable habitat for native fish species (Eastern Iberian chub, Squalius valentinus and European eel, Anguilla anguilla) and its competition with invasive species (Bleak, Alburnus alburnus and Pumpkinseed, Lepomis gibbosus) were assessed by combining a 2D hydraulic model with the corresponding fuzzy logic-based habitat suitability models by species. The Pareto-optimal strategies for dam reoperation were obtained with the BORG-MOEA algorithm implemented using the Platypus Python library. The goals were the maximisation of the agricultural benefits and of native fish habitat, and the minimisation of the competition between the two groups of species.

Our results suggest a trade-off between economic and ecological objectives and a positive relation between native fish habitat and native-invasive competition. They also indicate that economic and ecological sustainability could not be achieved by dam reoperation in the most pessimistic scenarios. However, dam reoperation shows a significant potential to contribute to climate change adaptation, entirely reverting its impacts in the most optimistic scenarios. It also shows synergies with land use scenarios, suggesting that dam reoperation could boost the positive impacts after the implementation of drip irrigation.

Acknowledgements: This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the GoNEXUS project (grant agreement No 101003722); as well as from the SOS-WATER project, under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (GA No. 101059264).

How to cite: Martinez-Capel, F., Macian-Sorribes, H., Muñoz-Mas, R., Peano, D., Oliva-Paterna, F. J., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Dam reoperation to reconcile agricultural sustainability with native fish habitat and competition with invasive fish species in semi-arid areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15775, 2025.

EGU25-15962 | ECS | PICO | HS5.1.7

Identifying and Analyzing Outlying Futures in Integrated Assessment Models 

Amal Sarfraz, Charles Rougé, Lyudmila Mihaylova, Jonathan Lamontagne, Abigail Birnbaum, and Flannery Dolan

Climate models have grown increasingly complex as they aim to capture interactions between environmental, social, and economic systems. These models are now routinely used to generate large ensembles of scenarios, requiring robust and scalable methods to extract meaningful insights. Our research demonstrates the application of Outlier Set Two-step Identification (OSTI) to systematically extract, evaluate and interpret outlying ensembles of futures from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) outputs. OSTI is a novel technique that combines Gaussian Mixture Models for probabilistic clustering with Inter-cluster Mahalanobis distance measurement and hypothesis testing to identify clusters of scenarios that deviate significantly from typical patterns. 

Here, we analyze irrigation withdrawal patterns across 27 major river basins using outputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). GCAM integrates climate, economic, and human systems to explore future pathways through 2100 at five-year intervals. We apply OSTI to 3,000 scenarios of agricultural water demands through 2100, generated by varying seven key GCAM parameters including socioeconomic development, agricultural practices, groundwater availability, reservoir storage capacity, climate trajectories, and carbon tax policies.

We then systematically extract these OSTI-identified outlying futures to identify distinct patterns that appear repeatedly across multiple basins, focusing on scenarios that share unique combinations of socioeconomic and agricultural parameters. The extraction process highlights outlier sets against their input parameters to understand what combinations of model inputs lead to outlying behavior. In these outlying sets, water supply parameters have minimal influence on outlying future determination, while demand-related parameters dominate. We speculate this reflects GCAM's recursive economic equilibrium mechanism, which interprets  physical water scarcity constraints in terms of economic cost but does not make them binding. The spatiotemporal analysis shows distinct irrigation withdrawal patterns across two time periods (2015-2050 and 2050-2100). Most basins exhibit increasing irrigation withdrawals until mid-century, followed by significant declines or stabilization, particularly for winter crops like wheat. This pattern strongly correlates with groundwater dynamics, where peak extraction occurs around 2050, followed by declining usage due to increasing pumping costs and declining water tables. However, high-value crops like cotton maintain relatively stable withdrawal patterns throughout the century, while sugarcane shows continued growth in some scenarios, reflecting adaptation to changing water availability and economic priorities.

These results establish OSTI as a diagnostic tool for systematic identification of limitations and potential artifacts in complex models like IAMs. As IAMs like GCAM become increasingly pivotal in understanding multi-sectoral dynamics under deep uncertainty, OSTI offers a robust and scalable tool for scenario discovery. Beyond, our approach is applicable to the exploration of large scenario ensembles in other contexts. It provides a scalable way to identify and analyze potentially outlying scenarios requiring special attention in adaptation planning.

How to cite: Sarfraz, A., Rougé, C., Mihaylova, L., Lamontagne, J., Birnbaum, A., and Dolan, F.: Identifying and Analyzing Outlying Futures in Integrated Assessment Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15962, 2025.

Water supply managers worldwide are challenged by climate change and population growth. To maintain reliable water supplies, many urban water systems require significant infrastructure investment. Deep uncertainty in future water demand growth, the nature and speed of climate impacts, and financial conditions challenge the development of sustainable infrastructure investment portfolios. If water managers under-invest or construct new infrastructure too slowly, they risk water supply shortfalls under challenging future conditions. However, if challenging conditions do not manifest, the cost of large, near-term investments raises the risk of financial instability and stranded assets. Recent work has shown that adaptive pathway approaches using stochastic multiobjective reinforcement learning (MORL) and state-aware risk-of-failure (ROF) based rule systems can develop robust infrastructure adaptation policies that balance supply reliability and financial stability. ROF-based infrastructure pathway policies tailor investment decisions to observed future conditions, generating unique infrastructure pathways for each future state of the world.

A core challenge with the adoption of ROF-based infrastructure pathways is the volume of information they produce, which can overwhelm water managers and lead to decision paralysis. Recent innovations in visual analytics (VA) and explainable AI (XAI) offer new tools for exploring large and complex data sets. These tools emphasize interactive visualizations to incorporate human expertise into the analysis and provide multiple perspectives for the data, the model, and their outcomes. In this work, we develop a new interactive VA system that allows water managers to explore dynamic adaptive infrastructure pathway policies interactively. Our framework centers on interactive Set Streams, a visual technique that represents pathways on a timeline of branching and merging streams to explore adaptive pathway alternatives. The system allows users to interact dynamically with pathway alternatives and apply preferences across performance objectives and infrastructure sequencing. We demonstrate our system on the Sedento Valley test case, an urban water supply benchmarking problem where three water utilities seek to develop cooperative and adaptive water supply pathway policies.

How to cite: Hochman, Z., Chatzimparmpas, A., and Gold, D.: An interactive visual-analytic system to support dynamic and adaptive infrastructure pathways for urban water supply planning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17679, 2025.

EGU25-20087 | PICO | HS5.1.7

Patterns of reservoir operation over a 20-years period in the Guadalquivir basin and implications for basin management 

Raquel Gómez-Beas, Eva Contreras, Ana Andreu, Rafael Pimentel, Cristina Aguilar, and María José Polo

Water management in basins where natural flow regime is altered by the presence of reservoirs is a complex issue that often requires the development of modelling tools to support managers in their decision-making process. However, when it comes to large basins where it is necessary to satisfy the different demands of a vast and heterogeneous territory, in which the pressures on the basin water resources are increased due to the effects of climate change, it makes modelling a challenging matter. It is in these cases when it is possible to use long series of data on hydro-meteorological variables collected in the basin reservoirs and stations to analyse the behaviour of the basin and its management over the period for which data are available.

A series of 20-years of hydro-meteorological data has been used in more than 30 reservoirs in the Guadalquivir River basin, in southern Spain, in order to obtain patterns of inflow and outflow regimes in the reservoirs, and to relate them to the supply to the different water demands. To do this, a distinction has been made between dry, medium and wet years, based on the SPI-12 in the basin. In order to obtain the patterns related to the natural regime of the basin, the headwater reservoirs have been selected, which do not have the inflow regime altered by the action of another reservoir upstream.

The results of the analysis show 5 different types of inflow-outflow dynamics depending on their location in the basin, that is, depending on the influence of the Mediterranean-Alpine climate in the upper areas of the basin, or the Atlantic influence near the mouth of Guadalquivir River. In addition, changes in management patterns have been identified depending on the type of year. Our results will be the basis for the development of management tools in large basins for short and medium-term forecasting of resource availability and demand satisfaction.

How to cite: Gómez-Beas, R., Contreras, E., Andreu, A., Pimentel, R., Aguilar, C., and Polo, M. J.: Patterns of reservoir operation over a 20-years period in the Guadalquivir basin and implications for basin management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20087, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20087, 2025.

HS5.2 – Human-Water Systems

EGU25-3080 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

A socio-hydrological model to explore water resource exploitation in relation to population and salary dynamics 

Elena Cristiano, Carlotta Atzori, Roberto Deidda, and Francesco Viola

In the last decades, water resource exploitation has become one of the most complex and challenging issues for managers and policy makers, that need to guarantee strategic development with a sustainable use of water resources. Climate, population density and the financial ability to invest in hydraulic infrastructures play a significant role in shaping water resources availability at country level. To ensure sustainable water management, it is, hence, fundamental to understand and reproduce how population and wealth dynamics affect and are affected by water availability, considering different climates and their potential future variability. In this framework, an agent-based socio-hydrological model has been proposed to simulate water exploitation in relation to climate, population and salary dynamics, considering the mutual interactions among these factors. The aim of the model is to explore how water availability is linked to long-term economic and population growth, with a particular focus on the consequences of investments to store surface water. Results highlight the strong mutual dependence of water availability with population density and salary dynamics. Additionally, the proposed socio-hydrological model enables also to identify steady scenarios, that starting from selected rainfall, population density and salary, ensure stable socio-economic conditions for long-term simulations.

How to cite: Cristiano, E., Atzori, C., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: A socio-hydrological model to explore water resource exploitation in relation to population and salary dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3080, 2025.

EGU25-4343 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Analysis of GHG Emissions in Tropical Reservoirs: A Socio-Hydrological Approach in Atlantic Rainforest and Amazon Biomes 

Flavia Pileggi and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

Tropical reservoirs serve a crucial role in the efficient management of water resources contributing to public supply, irrigation, and flow regulation. However, they often emerge as significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and social conflicts. These aquatic ecosystems are located in various Brazilian biomes, such as the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant (UHE), situated in the Amazon biome, and the Pedreira and Duas Pontes reservoirs, currently under construction in the Atlantic Forest biome. Each of these reservoirs reflects the complexity of interactions between environmental and social factors, requiring meticulous analysis in light of growing concerns about climate change.

The proposed research includes the collection and analysis of environmental and operational data related to these reservoirs, considering crucial variables such as flooded area, types of aquatic vegetation present, and local climatic data. A central focus of the study is to understand how social practices and land use in adjacent areas influence greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To achieve this, a comprehensive analysis of agricultural and urban activities that may affect both the availability of organic matter and the decomposition dynamics in the reservoirs is conducted.

The methodology adopted utilizes a socio-hydrological approach, allowing for an in-depth investigation of the interrelationships between social and environmental factors. The research includes the application of the G-Res tool to calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from management practices in the reservoirs. The aim is to understand the community's perceptions regarding water, conservation practices, and their correlations with GHG emissions, with the goal of providing practical recommendations that promote more efficient and sustainable water management.

The study aims to develop future solutions that address interconnected environmental and social issues, aligning with the goals of water sustainability in Brazil, minimizing GHG emissions, and encouraging sustainable practices; thereby contributing to the conservation of water resources and improving the quality of life for local communities. 

Keywords: Tropical Reservoirs, Greenhouse Gases, Sustainable Water Management, Socio-Hydrological Approach, Tropical Biomes.

How to cite: Pileggi, F. and Mario Mendiondo, E.: Analysis of GHG Emissions in Tropical Reservoirs: A Socio-Hydrological Approach in Atlantic Rainforest and Amazon Biomes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4343, 2025.

There is limited understanding of how to address the complex dynamics shaping the resilience of increasingly water-scarce cities, globally. This requires moving beyond managing water scarcity through infrastructural measures to understanding resilience as an outcome of complex interactions between social, ecological and technological system elements. By conceptualizing urban water systems as Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) and analysing their interactions from different stakeholder perspectives, we create a pluralistic, yet systematic, understanding of SETS interactions. We conducted a household survey (N=300) and expert interviews (N=19) in Amman, one of the world’s water scarcity hotspots, and analysed the data in three steps: 1) Inspired by frame analysis, we interpreted the SETS through the lens of its different actor groups and found that each group focuses on different system elements and interactions: Local experts focus on deficits of SETS elements and aim to increase available resources, while international experts emphasize the efficiency of SETS interactions. Households cope with deficient water supplies by mobilizing adaptive strategies. 2) We derived uncertainties resulting from these different (and unrecognized) stakeholder views, missing knowledge, and unpredictable system dynamics. 3) We identified and characterized new SETS interactions, which contributes to a growing typology of SETS aiming for better comparability across SETS. Our results have implications for resilience-oriented urban water management and governance in terms of what to manage (e.g., slow variables/feedbacks), how to manage by enhancing deeper levels of learning across stakeholder groups, and by whom. The latter requires a broadened participation in the process of of transforming the city's water system towards greater system resilience and sustainability.

How to cite: Krueger, E., Ma, Z., Kassab, G., and Schulte-Römer, N.: Reframing resilience-oriented urban water management: Learning from social-ecological-technological system interactions and uncertainties in a water scarce city, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4968, 2025.

EGU25-5331 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

A systematic review of methods and approaches for assessing risk memory in sociohydrology 

Bremer Delacruz, Prince Dacosta Aboagye, Natsumi Arase, and Shinichiro Nakamura

Sociohydrology is a field that focuses on coupled human water interactions, bringing about new methods and approaches of assessing and evaluating water-related risk and hazards. Memory has been established in this field as an important factor used to quantify and describe the dynamics of societal attitudes towards environmental challenges. Multiple methods and applications of memory have been published in the years following the field’s inception. With a potentially large amount of variation and nuance, it is important to organize and analyze trends and typologies of the different methods and approaches that have been used to evaluate memory within sociohydrological studies. In this literature review, we synthesize papers within the field of sociohydrology with three objectives: (1) to present the different methods and approaches adopted to assess memory in sociohydrological models, (2) identify possible associations between the different methods and approaches in regards to vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and (3), introduce a conceptual framework of methods and approaches for assessing memory in sociohydrological systems. By identifying the current trends, approaches, and applications of memory, this paper may assist in identifying potential research gaps and clarify future research directions in the nexus between memory and sociohydrological components.

How to cite: Delacruz, B., Dacosta Aboagye, P., Arase, N., and Nakamura, S.: A systematic review of methods and approaches for assessing risk memory in sociohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5331, 2025.

EGU25-5427 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Scaling Laws and Archetypes of Urban Drainage Networks in the Megacity Seoul 

Hyeonju Kim and Soohyun Yang

Urban drainage networks (UDNs), as one of the most pivotal infrastructures, provide the public with sanitary and safe living environments, primarily by mitigating water-related diseases and hazards. The layout of UDNs and their corresponding drainage area, known as sewersheds, are inevitably linked to the geometric shape of districts in a given urban area and the distribution of people within them. This relation is evident as UDNs expand to meet the increasing demand for drainage services driven by urban expansion. Recent studies have reported remarkable findings that scaling features emerge in the most mature UDN structures, as shown from natural river networks, i.e., their analogy in nature. Such findings are fascinating as they corroborate how self-organizing human unintentionally shape engineered drainage systems over time to exhibit emerging features similar to those of naturally created ones, beyond the influences of topographic conditions and initial engineering criteria for UDN design. Given these innovative outcomes, further interesting questions naturally arise: (1) Can diverse UDNs be organized into archetypes based on the gradients of their scaling features (including cases with a lack of scaling features)? (2) If so, what factors govern the differentiation among individual archetypes? To address the questions, this study analyzed ~200 sewersheds discharging into four major tributaries of the Han River in the megacity of Seoul (~16K people/km², ~605 km²), South Korea. The analyzed UDNs represent an average of ~60% of the total UDNs length across the four tributary watersheds. We identified three archetypes of Seoul’s UDNs based on Horton’s laws, which indicate scaling features and consistent patterns in rivers for the number, the mean length, and the mean drainage area of order-by-order stream: (Archetype I) UDNs satisfying all three of Horton’s laws as found from river networks; (Archetype II) UDNs adhering to Horton’s ratios but not all three laws; (Archetype III) UDNs exhibiting at least one insignificant Horton’s ratios. Particularly, we investigated the roles of topographic (e.g., mean slope, elevation), socio-economic (e.g., population density, fiscal self-reliance), and network structure (e.g., drainage density) conditions of each sewershed. Using publicly open data, we selected ~20 descriptive indicators with low correlations to represent the independent characteristics of network structure, topography, and socio-economic factors. Multigroup analysis and post-hoc tests were employed to identify significant differences among the archetypes. Our findings are expected to not only advance the understanding of UDN structures but also serve as a cornerstone for developing a framework that connects UDN vulnerability to extreme climate conditions through their scaling features.

How to cite: Kim, H. and Yang, S.: Scaling Laws and Archetypes of Urban Drainage Networks in the Megacity Seoul, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5427, 2025.

EGU25-5975 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Modelling flood, droughts and humans: A systematic review of hydrological hazard management in agent-based models 

Fredrik Schück, Berit Arheimer, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Luigia Brandimarte

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is becoming a widely explored method to investigate human-water systems given their ability to represent heterogeneous actors and their decisions. ABM is also a bottom-up approach that can simulate how individuals interact and co-adapt with the environment; this is beneficial for understanding the effects of humans' decisions when facing the risk of hazards and climate change. However, individuals also adapt to organisational measures or lack thereof. This, for example, has been shown with the safe-development paradox, where governments’ hazard management strategies can impact individual risk preparedness. Therefore, ABMs can assist as tools for testing policies for improving flood and drought management.

The implementation of hydrological hazard management in ABMs has not yet been systematically evaluated. In this work, we aim to synthesize current knowledge on how hydrological hazard management and non-individuals are implemented in ABMs by performing a systematic review using the ROSES Protocol. A total of 377 unique articles were screened, and 78 articles were included in a full-text analysis. Our findings show that hydrological hazard management strategies in ABMs vary; both structural measures, such as levee and reservoir construction, and non-structural measures, such as water quota and insurance strategies, are implemented. Yet, there is a focus on individual agents taking measures against hazards in ABMs. Non-individual hazard management is often included as static scenarios or agents with ad-hoc or rational decision-making.

Our study demonstrates that the simplicity of hazard management in these models could limit the ability of the ABMs as a policy tool since the implemented hazard management does not adapt to the dynamics of human-water systems. Involving stakeholders or implementing bounded-rational decision-making could be an important shift to further improve the explanatory power of ABMs for challenges in hydrological hazard management.

How to cite: Schück, F., Arheimer, B., Mazzoleni, M., and Brandimarte, L.: Modelling flood, droughts and humans: A systematic review of hydrological hazard management in agent-based models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5975, 2025.

EGU25-6122 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Evaluating the Role of Climate Services in Maladaptive Lock-in Processes: A Socio-Hydrological Modelling Approach 

Riccardo Biella, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Luigia Brandimarte, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre

The interplay between human decision-making and hydrological processes shapes the resilience and vulnerability of coupled human-water systems. This study employs a socio-hydrological system dynamics model to investigate maladaptive feedbacks arising from competing short- and long-term adaptation strategies. To this end, we developed a synthetic model where agricultural expansion and ecological restoration vie for limited water resources under varying climate service scenarios. The model highlights how biases favouring short-term responses exacerbate hydrological vulnerabilities and hinder transformative adaptation, creating path dependencies that lock systems into unsustainable trajectories. By integrating variables that simulate decision-making under different typologies of climate services, we simulate scenarios that reveal the trade-offs between immediate economic gains and long-term system sustainability. Our work contributes to advancing hydro-social and socio-hydrological research by providing actionable insights into feedback dynamics, risk management, and governance strategies. It underscores the value of interdisciplinary approaches for understanding complex human-water interactions and designing adaptive water management policies that focus on long-term sustainability and resilience.

How to cite: Biella, R., Mazzoleni, M., Brandimarte, L., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Evaluating the Role of Climate Services in Maladaptive Lock-in Processes: A Socio-Hydrological Modelling Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6122, 2025.

Community-based management approaches in the Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) sector have been widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in rural areas, due to their cost-effectiveness and sustainability. Despite their popularity since the 1990s, the outcomes of such interventions have not always been successful. In the context of WASH, both community water facilities and household sanitation can be viewed as common-pool resources, which inherently face theoretical challenges in management due to externalities in collective governance. This research examines the interplay between collective water management and social capital, focusing on a community toilet development project in the urban slums of Bangladesh as a case study. While social capital is expected to play a pivotal role in community management, the mechanisms through which it fosters collective action remain largely unexplained. The study introduces a framework to delineate social capital through the lens of social norms, employing behavioral game theoretical perspectives. This framework aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of local value systems and underscores their importance in achieving sustainable resource management and good governance. The research builds on findings published in Sakamoto’s (2024) “The Role of Social Capital in Community Development: Insights from Behavioral Game Theory and Social Network Analysis” in the Journal of Sustainable Development.

How to cite: Sakamoto, M.: Social Capital and Collective Water Management: Social Norms Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7398, 2025.

EGU25-8606 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Building a Hierarchical Sociohydrological Model for Flood-Induced Migration 

Natsumi Arase and Shinichiro Nakamura

In this study, a new hierarchical sociohydrological model was developed to capture the complex interactions between society and hydrological processes in flood risk management in a multilayered approach. Conventional sociohydrological models tend to treat local communities as a single homogeneous group and do not adequately reflect actual socio-economic heterogeneity and dynamics among different social groups. This model divides society into multiple socio-economic groups (e.g., low-income, middle-income, and high-income groups) and explicitly considers population movement among these groups, flood damage experiences, and group-specific characteristics such as memory loss rates and preparedness awareness ratios. Furthermore, the impact of social interactions on flood risk management is modeled by introducing equations that capture population movement between groups inside and outside the region.

The site of application of this study is the city of San Mateo, Philippines. San Mateo is currently facing rapid urbanization and frequent flooding of the Marikina River. Through a questionnaire survey of local residents, this study determines key model parameters such as the flood memory loss rate, the ratio of preparedness/awareness, and the rate of migration between social groups and outside of the region. Based on these parameters, the study simulates the differences in flood damage and adaptive capacity to flood risk among the different groups, and quantitatively assesses the impact of changes in levee heights and flood experiences on each group.

This study provides a new tool to identify the impact of socio-economic heterogeneity in flood risk management and to assist in the design of realistic and equitable adaptation measures. The usage of a hierarchical model emphasizes the importance of risk assessment and policy making that takes into account social diversity, and demonstrates its applicability to the target site.

How to cite: Arase, N. and Nakamura, S.: Building a Hierarchical Sociohydrological Model for Flood-Induced Migration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8606, 2025.

EGU25-9192 | Orals | HS5.2.1

Exploring the limits and gaps of flood adaptation 

Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Paul D. Bates, Wouter Botzen, Jens de Bruijn, Jim W. Hall, Bart van den Hurk, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Sanne Muis, Jaroslav Mysiak, Eric Tate, and Frans Berkhout

Flood adaptation measures, such as levees, flood-proofing structures, nature-based solutions, and flood insurance, are essential to cope with the growing flood risk caused by climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas. However, many communities in flood zones are inadequately protected because the implementation of adaptation measures is hindered by various constraints, including cost, limitations in institutional capacity, and societal inertia. When adaptation efforts fall short relative to the desired level due to a combination of constraints, it results in an ‘adaptation gap’ and eventually leads to ‘adaptation limits’—a point in time where additional adaptation is no longer feasible and the risk becomes ‘intolerable.’ While the emerging field of socio-hydrology has made progress in studying the adaptive feedbacks from society to environmental changes, a quantitative assessment of adaptation limits and gaps has not yet been conducted.

In this paper, we introduce a novel, risk-based framework to quantify how changes in risk and adaptation constraints might result in the spatial-temporal dynamics of adaptation gaps and, ultimately, adaptation limits. With hundreds of millions of people living in flood-prone areas, understanding how these constraints affect adaptation gaps and potential limits—and where and when these limits are reached—is crucial for quantitative risk assessments. This information is particularly helpful for efforts to build resilience in the most vulnerable communities, some of which may have already reached such limits. We discuss five main categories of constraints that limit adaptation efforts, ranging from technical constraints that prevent the government from implementing levees to socio-economic constraints (such as age and income) that limit flood adaptation by households.

We argue that, without overcoming these constraints, adaptation gaps will widen under climate change, exposing increasing populations to heightened flood risk. This may then require more radical actions including relocation, as risks become intolerable. We argue that quantitative flood risk assessments must consider constraints and adaptation gaps systematically, especially where they may lead to flood adaptation limits. Without assessing these dynamic relationships, flood managers may overestimate the efficacy of flood adaptation measures and underestimate the unequal distribution of flood risks.

Reference: Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., Paul Bates, Wouter J. Botzen, Jens de Bruijn, Jim Hall, Bart van den Hurk, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Sanne Muis, Jaroslav Mysiak, Eric Tate, and Frans Berkhout (2024) Exploring flood adaptation limits and gaps. Nature Water, doi-org.vu-nl.idm.oclc.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00274-x

How to cite: Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bates, P. D., Botzen, W., de Bruijn, J., Hall, J. W., van den Hurk, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Muis, S., Mysiak, J., Tate, E., and Berkhout, F.: Exploring the limits and gaps of flood adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9192, 2025.

EGU25-9474 | Orals | HS5.2.1

How did old Tokyo overcome floods and poverty? 

Akiyuki Kawasaki and Risa Nakamura

There is concern that more frequent flooding around the world will accelerate the vicious cycle of poverty, particularly in developing countries. There is also hope that flood control as a climate adaptation measure will bring significant socioeconomic benefits in the long term, such as improving the livelihoods of the poor, but the effects have yet to be proven. Tokyo, one of the world's largest cities, experienced frequent flooding during the Edo period (1603-1868). Did Edo, as Tokyo was then called, have the same problems with flooding and poverty that we see in developing countries today? And how did they overcome them? In this study, we collected and integrated a wide range of historical records on past floods and poverty, which historians had previously studied separately, and quantitatively demonstrated the relationship between the earliest floods and poverty. We found that areas with large numbers of poor people were more vulnerable to flood damage. It also showed that flood control exacerbated inequalities during the Edo period, when there were significant technological and budgetary constraints, but that later, as flood control was strengthened, socioeconomic inequalities were reduced. This research is the first to demonstrate the long-term socioeconomic impacts of flood control, and it presents the long-term socioeconomic impacts of climate adaptation and disaster mitigation investments for developing countries that, like Tokyo in the past, face the problem of flooding and poverty. Based on the findings of this research, we would like to contribute to deepen the discussion of social hydrology regarding the impact of flood control on long-term socioeconomic development.

How to cite: Kawasaki, A. and Nakamura, R.: How did old Tokyo overcome floods and poverty?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9474, 2025.

EGU25-9883 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Urban River Bathing and Drowning: A Comprehensive Socio-Hydrological Challenge Through a Multidisciplinary Approach 

Célia Maghakian, Oldrich Navratil, Nicolas Rivière, and Anne Honegger

Urban rivers have emerged as valuable recreational spaces in Europe in recent years, particularly for bathing, in response to the growing need for cooling and nature-based outdoor activities in cities (Barton & Grant, 2012; Corburn, 2017). While river bathing improves urban livability and strengthens social connections, it remains largely prohibited in France, unlike in other European countries where this practice is seen as generating "social connectivity" (Wuijts, 2022; Kondolf & Pinto, 2017). This restriction has contributed to the rise of unsupervised bathing, which poses significant drowning risks (Sindall et al., 2022), especially in unregulated areas with strong currents. This research focuses on the Lyon metropolitan area (France), where accidental and intentional drownings present a critical public health concern and operational challenge for rescue teams, analyzed through a socio-hydrological lens to explore complex human-water interactions.

Addressing the issues of bathing and the associated risk of drowning in urban rivers requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining geography, epidemiology, hydrology, hydraulics, and experimental methods (Maghakian, 2023). This study emphasizes the importance of focusing on the local scale, to better capture the specific dynamics of drowning risks and develop targeted prevention strategies (World Health Organization, 2017). Two main axes structure the work: (1) an analysis of biophysical, social, and spatial factors influencing drowning risks, based on a comprehensive database of incidents and a survey on both current bathing practices and residents’ projections for river bathing by 2030; (2) the development of practical solutions designed for rescue teams, supported by the study of the accuracy of eyewitness testimonies and experimental drift tests using mannequins to model body trajectories. Through an interdisciplinary focus on the complex dynamics of urban rivers at a metropolitan level, this research provides practical recommendations for both risk understanding and management, enhancing prevention strategies and rescue operations.

Bibliography

Barton, H., Grant, M., 2013. Urban Planning for Healthy Cities. J Urban Health 90, 129–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-011-9649-3

Corburn, J., 2017. Urban Place and Health Equity: Critical Issues and Practices. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14020117

Kondolf, G.M., Pinto, P.J., 2017. The social connectivity of urban rivers. Geomorphology, Connectivity in Geomorphology from Binghamton 2016 277, 182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.09.028

Maghakian, C., Navratil, O., Zanot, J.-M., Rivière, N., Honegger, A., 2024. Drowning incidents in urban rivers: An underestimated issue with future challenges in need of an interdisciplinary database to characterise its epidemiology. Environmental Challenges 14, 100822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100822

Sindall, R., Mecrow, T., Queiroga, A.C., Boyer, C., Koon, W., Peden, A.E., 2022. Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review. Injury Prevention 28, 185–191. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2021-044486

Wuijts, S., Friederichs, L., Hin, J.A., Schets, F.M., Van Rijswick, H.F.M.W., Driessen, P.P.J., 2022. Governance conditions to overcome the challenges of realizing safe urban bathing water sites. International Journal of Water Resources Development 38, 554–578. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2020.1755617

How to cite: Maghakian, C., Navratil, O., Rivière, N., and Honegger, A.: Urban River Bathing and Drowning: A Comprehensive Socio-Hydrological Challenge Through a Multidisciplinary Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9883, 2025.

Approximately 50% of the Republic of Ireland’s (ROI) rural population depends on unregulated private wells, which are susceptible to ingress of agricultural runoff and untreated domestic wastewater. As elevated national rates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and other waterborne illnesses have been increasingly linked with well water exposure, promoting positive behavioural actions (e.g., periodic water testing) is vital to safeguarding rural public health. However, the absence of financially incentivised water quality testing necessitates household expenditure. Thus, analysing the role of environmental, cognitive and material factors in promoting and/or governing behavioural actions is critical.

Existing studies have assigned little attention on the impacts of conjectural, policy-based changes and inter-agent interactions (e.g., well users, government agencies). Development of empirically informed future scenarios, amalgamated with population-level data, may highlight top-down strategies conducive to favorable behaviours, leading to favourable outcomes. Accordingly, the authors adopted an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate and characterise well testing behaviours via national survey data i.e., a behavioural and legislative “sandbox”.

The ABM framework utilized a Deep Q-network, a reinforcement learning model, simulating agents' decisions in an environment reflecting typical Irish seasonal variations. EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) was integrated into the ABM framework to provide transparent and interpretable insights into AI decision-making processes. ABMs were parameterized to simulate private groundwater well-testing behaviors and thereby assess interventions that encourage more frequent testing. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) with 10-fold cross-validation identified key features influencing behaviors, such as weather, self-efficacy (confidence), and penalization/reward structures. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) values, a core XAI tool, further explained feature importance, enhancing the interpretability of the ABM and facilitating actionable policy insights.

Over 1,000 episodes of simulations with 561 agents were trained. Among 14 hypothetical scenarios evaluated, "Free Well Testing + Communication Campaign" was the most effective intervention, with 435 agents participating in testing and highest learning accuracy (77.23%). "Free Well Testing + Regulation" also performed well, with 433 agents and 77.11% accuracy, though with a high error value. "Free Well Testing" alone resulted in 430 agents participating, with high accuracy (76.67%) and low error. Findings demonstrate that free testing will lead to significantly increased testing frequency in Ireland (from 5% to >75%), with many residents testing multiple times a year.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, Deep Q-network (DQN), private well testing, private well owners, public health, reinforcement learning, risk communication, and explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI).

 

How to cite: Asghar, R., Mooney, S., O’Neill, E., and Hynds, P.: Using agent-based models and EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to simulate social behaviors and policy intervention scenarios: A case study of private well users in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10274, 2025.

EGU25-10734 | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Lithium in tap and bottled water in Catalonia (NE, Spain): Environmental and health issues 

Albert Casas, Josefina C. Tapias Tapias, Monserrat Folch, and Alex Sendros

The objective of this study is to compare lithium (Li) concentrations in bottled natural mineral waters and tap water from urban water supplies in Catalonia (NE Spain) and to assess their potential relationships with environmental factors and human health. To achieve this, the chemical composition of 28 bottled mineral water brands marketed in Catalonia has been analyzed, and lithium concentrations in tap water provided by urban supply companies have been compiled.

The highest Li concentrations in bottled mineral waters were observed in the brands Malavella (1250 µg/L), San Narciso (1070 µg/L), and Vichy Catalan (1070 µg/L). These mineral waters originate from Caldes de Malavella (Girona) and are characterized by their thermal origin (58°C), natural carbonation, and high mineralization. Other brands with relatively high lithium concentrations include Aigua de Salenys (619 µg/L) and Aigua de Vilajuïga (570 µg/L). The lithium in these waters is derived from magmatic fractional crystallization and partial melting processes, which concentrate Li in muscovite minerals found in pegmatites and granites. During rock weathering and water-rock interactions, lithium, being highly soluble, is released and transported by water. In contrast, the median Li concentration among the remaining 25 brands of bottled water is 10 µg/L.

In relation to the lithium content of tap water supplied for urban consumption, the company that supplies the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona only controls it. This is because neither European directives nor Spanish regulations currently define a concentration limit for lithium in drinking water. The lithium concentrations of the tap water in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area range between <5 mg/L and 15 mg/L. since the main sources of water supply are river and reservoirs of surface waters.

Emerging research by health organizations has linked the natural occurrence of lithium in drinking water to potential health benefits, such as reduced suicide rates and improved mental health outcomes. However, concerns also exist regarding potential adverse effects, such as impacts on thyroid hormone levels and autism prevalence. This study aims to identify whether drinking water represents a significant dietary source of lithium and to contribute to improving epidemiological research on the health effects of Li. Additionally, the preliminary results provide a reference for the natural lithium background levels in aquatic environments. This baseline can help assess the anticipated impacts of anthropogenic lithium from the growing manufacture and recycling of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles.

How to cite: Casas, A., Tapias, J. C. T., Folch, M., and Sendros, A.: Lithium in tap and bottled water in Catalonia (NE, Spain): Environmental and health issues, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10734, 2025.

EGU25-11238 | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

Sociohydrological Agent Besed Modeling Framework for Identifying and Addressing Water Conflicts 

Mario Lillo-Saavedra, Marcela Salgado-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Diego Rivera, Consuelo Gonzalo-Martín, Ángel García-Pedrero, Meryeme Boumahdi, and Alfonso Fernandez

The present study introduces a methodology based on Socio-Hydrological Models Integrated with Agent-Based Models (SHABM) to identify and analyze potential water conflicts in the Longaví River Basin, Chile. This approach combines fieldwork to characterize user profiles, computational modeling, and simulations to explore interactions among water users, governance systems, and hydrological dynamics in a context of limited water resources.The Longaví River Basin is defined by a Mediterranean climate and a pluvial-nival regime that creates marked hydrological seasonality. These conditions, combined with significant agricultural dependency, generate tensions in water distribution. Addressing these conflicts requires tools that integrate technical, social, and environmental factors, which led to the development of the SHABM model.The SHABM model follows the ODD protocol (Overview, Design concepts, and Details) to ensure transparency and reproducibility. It models three main types of actors: the Water Board (WB), responsible for allocating volumetric water quotas; Canal Administrators (CA), who distribute water to users; and Farmers (F), who make individual decisions regarding water use. The model incorporates agent heterogeneity through variables such as personality, crop profitability, water use efficiency, and regulatory compliance.A key contribution of this study is the technological architecture, which uses a modular approach with Python for programming and MongoDB as a non-relational database management system. This architecture manages large data volumes, integrating geospatial, technical, and social information in real time. It also allows for adapting the model to different scenarios and basins, ensuring scalability and interoperability with other systems.Simulation scenarios were implemented under conditions of normal water availability, scarcity (-20%), and abundance (+20%), combined with different levels of institutional oversight (low, medium, high). Data sources included primary inputs, such as user surveys, and secondary inputs, including hydrological records from the Longaví River and crop characterizations.The results indicated that scenarios with low water availability and limited oversight promote conflict emergence, whereas stronger enforcement significantly reduces tensions. The model shows that behavioral patterns are influenced by agents’ personalities and the efficiencies of irrigation infrastructure and technologies.The SHABM model highlights critical areas in the basin where water distribution is most vulnerable to conflict. It also observes that self-serving agents are more likely to disregard distribution rules, amplifying inequalities among users.This study offers a replicable and scalable tool for analyzing socio-hydrological systems, supporting resource managers in exploring adaptive strategies and management scenarios. By integrating socio-hydrological models with ABM, the model captures detailed interactions between human and environmental factors. The technological architecture supports the modeling of complex systems and enhances result visualization and analysis, improving the understanding of patterns and decision-making processes.

Acknowledgments: ANID/FONDAP/1523A0001

How to cite: Lillo-Saavedra, M., Salgado-Vargas, M., Somos-Valenzuela, M., Rivera, D., Gonzalo-Martín, C., García-Pedrero, Á., Boumahdi, M., and Fernandez, A.: Sociohydrological Agent Besed Modeling Framework for Identifying and Addressing Water Conflicts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11238, 2025.

EGU25-12942 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

Enhancing Community Resilience to Ice-Jam Floods: Insights from Socioeconomic and Psychological Factors in Fort McMurray, Canada 

Mohammad Ghoreishi, Brandon Bellows, and Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt

Ice-jam floods present a real risk for riverine communities in cold climate regions through their often-sudden but always potentially destructive nature. This fact makes the analysis of the driving factors for residents in adopting measures against ice-jam flood hazards in the city of Fort McMurray, Canada, very relevant. By employing a structured survey that integrates the Protection Motivation Theory and the Transtheoretical Model, we identify self-efficacy, threat experience appraisal, and perceived costs as some of the key drivers influencing protective behaviors. The results also call for stage-specific, tailored interventions in concert with variation in readiness to act. Our findings clearly indicate that to realize the hoped-for increase in the adoption rate, policy approaches have to be directed to address the cost barrier, develop self-efficacy through appropriate communication strategies, and consider the peculiarities of various community groups, such as renters and transient populations. By proposing public policies, this work demonstrates how these strategies can be utilized as inputs for quantitative modeling approaches, such as agent-based modeling, to evaluate their impact on community-wide flood risk management. This research underlines the importance of integrating behavioral insights with advanced quantitative modeling tools in designing and implementing better flood risk management strategies that promote more resilient communities.

How to cite: Ghoreishi, M., Bellows, B., and Lindenschmidt, K.-E.: Enhancing Community Resilience to Ice-Jam Floods: Insights from Socioeconomic and Psychological Factors in Fort McMurray, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12942, 2025.

EGU25-13509 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

Assessing biophysical, socio-economic and governance conditions for a sustainable use of non-conventional water resources in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed 

Eleonora Forzini, Enrico Lucca, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Luigi Piemontese, Chloé Nicolas-Artero, Melina Tobias, Jampel Dell'Angelo, Maria Cristina Rulli, Tommaso Pacetti, Enrica Caporali, and Elena Bresci

Climate change is affecting water availability in the Mediterranean. The agriculture sector, accounting for the largest share of water withdrawals, is particularly vulnerable to dry spells and droughts increasing the risks for the socio-economic development of Mediterranean rural communities. Despite being often disregarded, the use of Non-Conventional Waters (NCW) can represent a sustainable and effective way to increase water availability and support agricultural production. In Central Italy, a traditional NCW is water harvesting through Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmARs), which are receiving renewed interest to support emergency irrigation of high value productions, like wine and olive oil. Within the AG-WaMED project (funded PRIMA S2), we analyse the barriers and drivers associated with the implementation and management of existing and new SmARs, considering hydrological, socio-economic, and governance aspects through a participatory approach in Val d’Orcia, Tuscany Region. A Living Lab was established following the Responsible Research and Innovation Roadmap© methodology to engage local stakeholders through 4 participatory workshops and interviews to assess the current challenges in the adoption of SmARs and to build a shared vision on their sustainable utilisation. In the first workshop, knowledge on the contextual biophysical, socio-economic and institutional conditions was co-created, highlighting data gaps, economic and normative issues, as well as a lack of collaboration between water management institutions. While the interest of local stakeholders on implementing SmARs is strong, normative, institutional and political barriers exist at higher institutional level, i.e., district and national, mostly associated with environmental protection. The second workshop served to present the preliminary results of the agro-hydrological and socio-economic modelling and to gain feedback on input data, scenarios building and on additional analysis to be conducted. The last two workshops led to the preparation of the final version of Integrated Watershed Management Plan synthesizing the evidence generated by the project  and identifying leverage points for the use of SmARs. Proposed actions included in the plan are promoting water sharing between farms and multipurpose use of SmARs’ water (e.g. fire extinction), the reuse of treated effluents from constructed wetlands as an additional irrigation NCW source and a clarification of each water management institution’s responsibilities. Through the Val d’Orcia case study, we demonstrated how conducting a multi-dimensional and participatory assessment of NCW is crucial to reveal the root causes of their limited adoption and identify systemic solutions for their sustainable uptake. 

This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA), an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021].

The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Copyright Notice: The RRI Roadmap©TM methodology and its tools or portions of it are the ownership of XPRO Consulting Limited, Cyprus. All Rights Reserved.

How to cite: Forzini, E., Lucca, E., Villani, L., Castelli, G., Piemontese, L., Nicolas-Artero, C., Tobias, M., Dell'Angelo, J., Rulli, M. C., Pacetti, T., Caporali, E., and Bresci, E.: Assessing biophysical, socio-economic and governance conditions for a sustainable use of non-conventional water resources in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13509, 2025.

EGU25-15991 | Orals | HS5.2.1 | Highlight

Panta Rhei: decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society 

Heidi Kreibich and the IAHS Panta Rhei community

To better understand the increasing human impact on the water cycle and the feedbacks between hydrology and society, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) organised the scientific decade “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows: Change in hydrology and society” (2013-2022). Significant scientific advances have been achieved, for instance, a key finding is the need to use integrated approaches to assess the co-evolution of human-water systems in order to avoid unintended consequences of human interventions over long periods of time. In this respect, substantial progress has been made in leveraging new data sources on socio-economic aspects and human behaviour, e.g., through text mining of social media posts. Much has been learned about detecting hydrological changes and attributing them to their drivers, e.g., quantifying climate effects on floods. Also, much headway has been made in understanding and modelling coupled socio-hydrological systems through combining methods from the social and natural sciences; for example, feedbacks leading to phenomena such as the levee effect can be simulated by system dynamics models. In terms of supporting adaptive water management, progress has been made, e.g., in developing participatory governance approaches, although there is still much to be done. We recommend that the community takes a broader view of the hydrologic sciences, through broadening the understanding, the discipline and training activities, while at the same time pursuing synthesis by focusing on key themes, developing innovative approaches and finding sustainable solutions to the water problems of the world.

How to cite: Kreibich, H. and the IAHS Panta Rhei community: Panta Rhei: decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15991, 2025.

EGU25-16687 | Orals | HS5.2.1

Focus on Downstream: A Sociohydrological Approach to Improve Policy Adaptation for Farmers 

Sai Jagadeesh Gaddam, Shyam Prasad S., and Sri Harsha Karumanchi

Farmers in South Asia, home to a significant portion of the global population, rely heavily on agriculture for their livelihoods, with water resources playing a crucial role in sustaining this sector. Canal irrigation systems are integral to agricultural productivity in these regions, yet disparities in water distribution between upstream and downstream areas present significant farmer-level challenges for policy adaptation to achieve sustainable agricultural water management. This study assesses the socio-hydrological and agronomic dynamics of canal irrigation in a South Indian region, focusing on supply-demand interactions and their impact on crop choice.

We developed a coupled crop-hydraulic modeling framework that simulated crop water demands using AquaCrop and canal discharge using PCSWMM for two seasons—Kharif and Rabi—covering high-demand crops like paddy and low-demand crops like cotton. Crop water demand was calculated by integrating AquaCrop-derived requirements with geospatially mapped cultivated areas. Canal discharge volumes were monitored using 70 water level sensors, with data assimilated into the hydraulic model for calibration. Subsequently, the supply and demand volumes for both regions were compared, and the following results were derived.

Results revealed that upstream farmers receive approximately 70% more supply than their estimated demand. Therefore, they predominantly cultivate water-intensive crops like paddy and are reluctant to adapt to new methodologies. Conversely, downstream farmers, who receive 80% less water supply when compared to their demand, were willing to adapt to new agricultural methods. This could be attributed to the observation that downstream farmers prioritize risk mitigation over yield maximization. Overall, integrating socio-hydrological and agricultural approaches reveals downstream farmers as ideal candidates for initial policy implementation due to their readiness to adapt. Policies focusing on equitable water distribution, financial incentives for adaptive practices, and investments in water management infrastructure can enhance resilience and promote long-term overall regional agricultural sustainability.

How to cite: Gaddam, S. J., Prasad S., S., and Karumanchi, S. H.: Focus on Downstream: A Sociohydrological Approach to Improve Policy Adaptation for Farmers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16687, 2025.

EGU25-17765 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.2.1

System Dynamic Unveiled: Exploring Groundwater and Socio-economic ties in Senegal’s North littoral coastal aquifer 

Isai Bassene, Christine Stumpp, and Serigne Faye

Groundwater resources play a critical role in socio-economic growth, providing vital support for agriculture, industry, and domestic needs. Yet, their sustainable management remains a global challenge due to the complex interdependencies between environmental and socio-economic factors. Traditional hydrogeological investigations, which primarily focus on pollutant sources identification and geochemical processes, often fail to address the dynamic feedback mechanisms, temporal changes, and non-linearities inherent to groundwater degradation. This research adopts a holistic approach – where a systems’ behavior emerges from the interactions of its parts – to unravel the intricate connections between groundwater systems and socio-economic development.

The study aims to identify the key drivers of groundwater degradation and their downstream impacts on socio-economic activities. A System Dynamic (SD) model was employed to capture the reciprocal interactions between hydrological, environmental, and socio-economic factors over time by integrating groundwater quality data (2005-2024), socio-economic indicators (e.g. population growth, urbanization) from the Senegalese National Agency of Statistics and Demography, and remote-sensing data (e.g. Land use changes) with a 10-year time step to reflect physical and chemical system changes. SD is a simulation-based methodology used to analyze and understand the behavior of complex systems over time. It relies on several key principles such as feedback loops, which are closed chains of cause-and-effect relationships where an output of a system influences its input.

The findings present a conceptual framework mapping the relationships between socio-economic and biophysical subsystems, emphasizing the direction and magnitude of change in groundwater resources. This approach highlights the cascading effects of unsustainable groundwater management on socio-economic stability and environmental health. Indeed, the heavy reliance of sectors such agriculture, urbanization, mining, and industry on water resources is expected to escalate demand intensifying withdrawal and causing groundwater depletion. This increases the risk of seawater intrusion aquifer degradation. Additionally, these sectors impact groundwater quality through pollution from inadequate sanitation, irrigation return fluxes, and industrial waste.

This research provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management strategies in Senegal and similar contexts worldwide. By addressing the feedback loops and interdependencies within groundwater systems, this interdisciplinary approach contributes to advancing water resource management and mitigating the challenges posed to groundwater degradation.

How to cite: Bassene, I., Stumpp, C., and Faye, S.: System Dynamic Unveiled: Exploring Groundwater and Socio-economic ties in Senegal’s North littoral coastal aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17765, 2025.

EGU25-18128 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

Mapping Global Water Resilience Risks for River Basin Governance 

Petr Vesnovskii and Michele-Lee Moore

Global water resilience is a critical concern for both nature and society in the face of increasing environmental and socio-economic pressures. Numerous studies have produced global maps highlighting a diversity of water-related risks. Yet, efforts to understand the cumulative nature of those risks and how that information can be used for decision-making remain crucial. This study aims to provide an exploratory global mapping of water resilience risks from a social-ecological systems perspective, identifying areas where the erosion of freshwater systems resilience is most under threat. Using a multilayer spatial analysis at the basin and sub-basin scales, we integrate diverse indicators to assess water resilience functions, as described in freshwater resilience frameworks by Falkenmark & Wang-Erlandsson (2021) and Rockström et al. (2014). We have grouped risks to water resilience according to their effects on the social-ecological systems of the basins, having also integrated novel indicators of resilience loss and tipping points of terrestrial and freshwater systems. Based on preliminary findings, our analysis identifies regions where cumulative water resilience risk is most pronounced, highlighting the balance between the number of indicators and the robustness of aggregation methods. Building on Huggins et al. (2022), we propose a typology of water resilience riskscapes to better address the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of resilience loss. We suggest this typology and methodological approach can be used as a foundation for targeted interventions that aim to enhance water resilience for both ecosystems and human communities. Further, we underscore the challenges that the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of the water resilience riskscapes pose for river basin organisations and the governing organisations responsible for responding to changing global dynamics and risks.

How to cite: Vesnovskii, P. and Moore, M.-L.: Mapping Global Water Resilience Risks for River Basin Governance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18128, 2025.

Where correctly installed and maintained, domestic wastewater treatment systems (DWWTSs) provide effective, environmentally sustainable wastewater disposal in rural and peri-urban areas. In contrast, poorly sited and/or mismanaged systems can contaminate private drinking water sources and public watercourses, posing a serious environmental health threat. Almost 30% of households in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) rely on DWWTSs, with systems often co-occurring with (unregulated) private domestic groundwater wells or adjoning surface water body margins. Dual reliance on decentralised, private drinking water sources and wastewater disposal in vulnerable catchments places a premium on voluntary system maintenance actions (e.g. desludging). However, despite recent introduction of mandatory, targeted system inspections and ancillary public engagement, system maintenance rates in the ROI remain low. Untreated domestic wastewater discharges pollute almost 10% of low status national water bodies and jeopardise private well water quality due to locally dense rural settlement patterns and historically poor DWWTS installation. The ROI currently reports elevates incidence rates of waterborne illnesses such as Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC), currently almost 10 ten times the EU mean and consistently linked with well water consumption. As such, mitigation of water contamination risk posed by DWWTSs via improved behaviour promotion represents a vital policy measure.

To this end, a national online survey (hosted by SurveyMonkey) was developed to identify and measure key cross-thematic precursors to household DWWTS maintenance measures. The survey considered both actual and conjectural reactions to household DWWTS inspection in addition to behaviour change (i.e., commencement vs. cessation of system maintenance). Preliminary analysis of approximately 500 survey responses found that 71% of Irish system users reported previous system desludging. However, of serviced systems reported to exceed 5 years in age (i.e. warranting ≥ 1 historical desludging events), 20.2% were infrequently desludged. Reported adoption and historical continuity of general system maintenance  were both significantly associated with occupancy during system installation (p <0.001, respectively) and self-perceived confidence regarding system management (p <0.001, respectively). Adoption of system maintenance after previous inaction was significantly more likely where prior system issues were reported (p <0.001), highlighting a priori intangibility of system malfunction/contamination risk as a likely behavioural barrier. Subsequent analysis will seek to identify opportunities for optimal intervention strategies via predictive agent-based modelling (ABM) of system maintenance behaviours. Development of weights via respondent policy preferences and cited barriers will be used to inform policy-based scenarios for behaviour promotion and their potential impact on system maintenance behaviours. Adoption of artificial intelligence to delineate optimal interventions from a ‘legislative sandbox’ represents a novel contribution to behavioural research within the socio-hydrogeological paradigm. Resultant findings may help ‘unblock’ current knowledge impediments to mitigation of domestic wastewater-induced water contamination.

Keywords: behaviour change domestic wastewater environmental policy risk management socio-hydrology water contamination

How to cite: Mooney, S., Fox-Rogers, L., Asghar, R., and Hynds, P. H.: Establishing control points for promoting bottom-up management of domestic wastewater treatment systems in the Republic of Ireland: A national household survey and research agenda, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18203, 2025.

EGU25-18883 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

A Novel Approach to Modeling Two-Way Feedbacks in Water Resource Management Under Climate Change 

Osama Gasimelseed Bakhit Hassan, Carlos Dionisio Pérez Blanco, and Héctor González López

Climate change presents a pressing challenge to global water availability resulting in increased variability in precipitation and increased temperatures, imposing more stress on existing water resources (IPCC, 2023). This variability poses a significant risk to economic, industrial, social stability and also impacts agricultural sectors reliant on water availability. This study introduces an innovative modeling approach by dynamically coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with the Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) microeconomic model, providing a robust framework for examining the complex two-way feedback loops between hydrological changes and agricultural economic decisions. Applied to the Tormes catchment in Spain, this method demonstrates how integrated modeling can illuminate the interactions within Human-Water Systems (HWS) under various climate scenarios.

The methodology employs a dynamic interaction that begins with the PMAUP model, which acts as a responsive mechanism to climatic perturbations affecting water availability. In response to these changes and influenced by policy measures aimed at mitigating their impacts, socio-economic agents adapt their agricultural practices accordingly. The crop portfolio, reflective of these adaptive practices, is central to this methodological integration, serving as a crucial input for both the SWAT and PMAUP models.

The PMAUP model was calibrated using observed socio-economic data while the SWAT model was calibrated against observed streamflow data to capture hydrological dynamics accurately. Following calibration, CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were input into SWAT to estimate key hydrological variables, especially water availability at the beginning of the irrigation season. This estimated water availability was then utilized by the PMAUP model to simulate agent’s adaptive responses. These updated land and water use decisions were subsequently fed back into the SWAT model to evaluate the hydrological impacts of these human decisions.

By simulating the immediate and cumulative impacts of agricultural decisions on water resources over time, this approach provides critical insights into the sustainability of water usage and the resilience of agricultural practices in response to climate variability. The dynamic coupling of SWAT and PMUAP models not only enhances the accuracy of predictions but also aids in developing adaptive strategies that are essential for maintaining balance in HWS. The actionable insights from this study serve as a vital resource for policymakers and stakeholders, offering a methodological blueprint that can be adapted to diverse geographical settings to address the global challenge of climate change.

How to cite: Hassan, O. G. B., Pérez Blanco, C. D., and González López, H.: A Novel Approach to Modeling Two-Way Feedbacks in Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18883, 2025.

EGU25-19124 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

Participatory Dynamic Systems Approach to Facilitate Multisectorial Sustainable Water Management in Konya Closed Basin  

Elif Bal, Ali Kerem Saysel, and İrem Daloğlu Çetinkaya

Sustainable management of water resources is one of the biggest challenges of our times particularly in terms of food security and ecosystem health (Molden, 2013, p.10). When already scarce nature of water resources is combined with the anthropogenic stress factors, water scarcity becomes one of the major threats for humanity and ecosystem. Old-fashioned command and control approaches in water resource management mostly dealt with providing sufficient amount of water to meet societal needs without concern on the ecosystem services. However, there needs to be a shift towards actions that can “work with nature” (Winz et al., 2009). In that sense, multi-sectoral approaches or water-energy-food nexus perspective supported with stakeholder engagement can unravel better before worse problems with dynamic systems approach. In this research, strategic water management problems in Konya Closed Basin are analyzed by using system dynamics approach and participatory methods from a water-food-ecosystem nexus perspective. Konya Closed Basin is an important agricultural production hub in Turkey, yet the region has been facing serious water scarcity problems in the past couple of decades. The Basin mostly relies on groundwater for irrigation; however, as a common pool resource, groundwater resources are hard to manage. Groundwater management challenges in the basin primarily include uncontrolled overuse of the resource, and unlicensed well drilling. On the other hand, surface water management brings additional challenges both for the water supply and ecosystem services and creates conflicts between the upstream and downstream users. Within the scope of this research, water resource systems are conceptualized in a holistic way and conflicts over water resources and conjoint use of surface water and groundwater resources are analyzed. The methodology is enhanced with stakeholder mapping and governance analysis. To understand the governance structure, one-to-one interviews were held with the key stakeholders and a participatory workshop is organized to develop a common understanding about how water management problems have emerged in the past, and how these problems potentially threat environmental and economic sustainability in the future. With the involvement of key stakeholders, a multi-sectoral dynamic simulation model is developed which covers the interactions between hydrologic, socio-economic and agricultural components of the systems. The model simulates the surface water allocation decisions of authorities in the basin and their impacts on the groundwater resources, agricultural production and land-use change. The reference behavior of the model shows that in the absence of effective policies, pressure on the water resources will remain due to the tendency to cultivate more water demanding crops. The model will provide a user-friendly interface which allows policy makers to test and propose alternative management policies to ensure long-term environmental sustainability of the basin without requiring any software knowledge.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.

 

References:

Molden, D., 2013. Water for food water for life: A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture. Routledge.

Winz, I., Brierley, G. and Trowsdale, S., 2009. The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water resources management, 23(7), pp.1301-1323.

 

How to cite: Bal, E., Saysel, A. K., and Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İ.: Participatory Dynamic Systems Approach to Facilitate Multisectorial Sustainable Water Management in Konya Closed Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19124, 2025.

The Climate Collaboratorium adopts a novel, transdisciplinary approach to address the interplay of climate change, groundwater dynamics, and socioeconomic factors. By combining advanced groundwater modelling with participatory methods, this project intends to develop actionable strategies for sustainable water management for the Sorbian community in Rietschen, Görlitz. This innovative methodology emphasizes collaboration between researchers and the community, ensuring that scientific insights align with local needs and values.

Central to the project is the development of a state-of-the-art groundwater model, incorporating high-resolution spatial and temporal data, along with boundary conditions informed by literature, fieldwork, stakeholder inputs, and sensitivity analyses. This foundational model provides a baseline for understanding groundwater dynamics and serves as a platform for subsequent scenario simulations.

In the second phase, the model will be adapted to evaluate climate change impacts on groundwater resources, integrating regional climate projections and recharge scenarios. Through workshops, community members will co-create socioeconomic scenarios and identify adaptation priorities. These priorities will guide the integration of local economic development plans and social behaviors into the model. To enhance community engagement, innovative methods such as theatrical performances will translate complex scientific findings into accessible and relatable formats.

The final phase will simulate the complex interactions between climate impacts, land use changes, and socioeconomic behaviors under a range of scenarios. This approach enables the identification of key vulnerabilities and supports the development of robust, community-oriented adaptation strategies.

The results will not only benefit the community of Rietschen but also provide transferable insights for similar communities facing groundwater management challenges. Also, comparable studies are going to be applied in Canada, the UK, and the USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach, highlighting its relevance in diverse sociocultural and environmental contexts.

How to cite: Hartmann, A., Agudelo Mendieta, T. S., and Chen, Z.: Climate Collaboratorium: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Modelling Groundwater Resources for Climate Adaptation in the Sorbian Community of Rietschen (Görlitz, Germany), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19327, 2025.

How to travel the fastest route from the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo, with air distance of 100 km?

Tone is the largest river in Japan, it supplies 37 million inhabitants of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area with water nowadays. Tone River was flowing towards Tokyo Bay more than 400 years ago, when engineers redirected it towards the Pacific Ocean, where the new river mouth was dislocated for 100 kilometers. It is not known what was the main reason for the diversion of the river. One hypothesis of historians, from the 19th century, is the defense of Tokyo (then Edo) from floods. Second one is raising of low river water levels for easier navigation on river routes from the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo, which attracted more attention in the 20th century.

We analyzed the second hypothesis for the main reason for Tone River diversion using the H08 hydrological model. We discussed what kind of knowledge we can obtain from the reconstruction of historical truths and how today's humanity can profit from the obtained knowledge. We successfully reconstructed the hydrological cycle of the Tone River, showing that the second assumption of historians about the main reason for diverting the river to raise its minimum levels is correct. The minimum levels of the Tone River increased significantly after its diversion. Because of this, the possibility of uninterrupted navigation of ships through the river waterways of the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo has been significantly increased. As a result of the increased navigability of ships, the possibilities of faster transportation of goods, cargo and commodity exchange increased the quality of social life that took place at the river ports.

This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation confirming the claims raised by historians that the Tone River Eastward Diversion Project in Japan was conducted four centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the Capitol Edo using inland navigation. We reconstructed six historical river maps and indirectly validated simulations with reachable ancient river ports via increased low-flow water levels.

The Tone River diversion project is used as a proof that small human engineering waterworks can greatly improve people's quality of life, without excessive destruction of natural flows. Learning from history should become a more important factor in challenging climate changes.

Our study is one of pioneering research in new discipline "History of Hydrology" (by Keith Beven), making a bridge between two disciplines. We believe that it will encourage broader scientific audience to engage in transdisciplinary hydrological and related studies by providing insights in historical engineering and scientific knowledge. There are a lot of present-day scientific efforts focused on projection, prediction and forecasting of near-future or far-future scenarios, yet historical studies are often sidelined. If only scientific community realizes that, sometimes at tipping points of climate, we can learn from past more than from future, then we believe that the historical cross-disciplinary insights will create abundant new approaches.

Keywords: Paleo-hydrological bridge; H08 global hydrological model; Tone River Eastward Diversion; 17th century; maps reconstruction; low flows; navigable paths;

How to cite: Trošelj, J. and Hanasaki, N.: Great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small destructions of natural flows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19448, 2025.

EGU25-19708 | ECS | Orals | HS5.2.1

Teleconnections in coffee and hydropower production in Colombia: An approach for expanding water management beyond watershed boundaries 

Claudia Coleoni, Tania Santos, Camilo Gonzalez, and Hector Angarita

Watersheds are commonly adopted as the primary unit for water management, yet this approach often fails to capture long-distance interactions—known as teleconnections—between coupled natural and human systems that extend beyond watershed boundaries. This study explores the cumulative impacts of water-dependent activities, such as coffee production and hydropower generation, in Colombia’s Magdalena-Cauca macro-basin, using the Watershed Topology Tool (WaTT), a newly developed topological tool based on the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) program. WaTT visualizes and quantifies hydrological processes, revealing water-related teleconnections across spatial and administrative boundaries. Our findings show that coffee production exerts impacts beyond direct production areas, as indicated by yield and Harvested Area Index analysis. For hydropower, energy consumption patterns mapped with cumulative data from Colombia’s Single Information System for Public Services (SUI) reveal intensified demand as the river passes urban centers, far from generation sites. These examples highlight the challenge of considering sector impacts that transcend typical water management units and the complex interplays between production zones, consumer regions, and their cumulative effects. Integrating teleconnections into water governance is crucial for recognizing distant interdependencies and incorporating them into planning. This multi-scale approach is essential for sustainable water management, particularly in regions facing complex socio-environmental challenges.

How to cite: Coleoni, C., Santos, T., Gonzalez, C., and Angarita, H.: Teleconnections in coffee and hydropower production in Colombia: An approach for expanding water management beyond watershed boundaries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19708, 2025.

The Nexus approach plays a critical role in understanding complex system dynamics under climate change and supporting watershed management. As biodiversity is increasingly recognized as a key resource, the Food-Water-Biodiversity (FWB) Nexus has gained importance. However, scalable models that incorporate human activities and biodiversity are limited, particularly in the Republic of Korea. This study aims to develop an FWB Nexus assessment tool by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with Agent-Based Model (ABM), referred to as SWAT-ABM, and demonstrate its application in the Yeongsan River Basin in Naju-si, Jeollanam-do. The SWAT model was first calibrated using streamflow and rice production data, while the ABM decision-making algorithm was developed through comparative and logical analysis. Biodiversity was assessed in ABM through exceedance probability results from each reach. ABM uses SWAT outputs, including rice and pea production, land use type, irrigation, and streamflow, to update land cover, crop type, and irrigation efficiency at the HRU level. Three FWB Nexus management scenarios, combined with SSP-1.26 and SSP-5.85, were tested from 2024 to 2050. The scenarios’ effectiveness and fairness based on FWB Nexus were compared based on the spatial and temporal distribution of rice production, irrigated water, and streamflow. Model performance was assessed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and KGE, with values of 0.58, 0.08, 77.3, and -0.18, respectively. Although there was high bias in estimates, the model still captured overall trends. Scenario results indicate that streamflow concentration increases under worsening climate change, exacerbating trade-offs within the FWB Nexus, particularly the imbalance of water resources during the farming season. The most effective management measure in a short- and mid-term were irrigation efficiency improvement compared to other two measures, although afforestation and crop conversion also contributed to enhancing synergies. This study demonstrates the potential of SWAT-ABM as a decision-making tool in watershed management considering the FWB Nexus, while highlighting challenges such as model performance, temporal resolution, and ABM complexity.

 

Keywords: FWB(Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus, SWAT, ABM (Agent-Based Model), Watershed management, Climate change

Acknowledgments: This paper was supported by Technology Development Project for Creation and Management of Ecosystem based Carbon Sinks (project number) through KEITI, Ministry of Environment, and the framework of international cooperation program managed by the National Research Foundation of Korea (No. 2021K2A9A1A02101519).

How to cite: Jeong, Y. and Lee, W.-K.: FWB (Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus Assessment in a Watershed Using SWAT-ABM: A case study of the Yeongsan-River Basin in the Republic of Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19990, 2025.

This study contributes to the understanding of complex human-water interactions by examining how entrenched institutional arrangements and historical power dynamics shape the governance and access to water in different hydrological contexts.

The Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) initiative focusing on universal household water supply in India supports decentralization of water governance. However, the sectoral reforms advocated in the late 90s, along with the demand-responsive approach (DRA), have been more limited than expected, with path dependency in institutional arrangements presenting significant challenges. Despite ongoing efforts toward decentralization, institutional inertia continues to impede substantial change. This research examines how entrenched social, political, and historical power dynamics shape water governance across three districts with distinct hydrological sources for water supply in Uttar Pradesh: Agra (surface water), Banda (mixed surface-groundwater), and Prayagraj (groundwater). The study draws on the hydro-social framework and new institutional economics (NIE) to explore how formal institutional structures (under JJM) are influenced by social and political power relations, affecting water governance. By analysing stakeholder interviews, government documents, and institutional arrangements, the research focuses on the social production of water, emphasizing how water access and control are constructed through various institutional processes. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how institutional frameworks shape the production and distribution of water.

How to cite: kumar, P.: Institutional Challenges and Social Production of Water in Rural Water Supply: A Hydrosocial Analysis of the Jal Jeevan Mission in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20566, 2025.

EGU25-3645 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

The dynamics and influential factors of intentions and actual behaviours in flood adaptation 

Tang Luu, Annegret Thieken, Toon Haer, Tuyen Tran, and Philip Bubeck

Floods pose significant risks to societies worldwide. Private flood adaptation is considered important to reduce flood risk. Investigating the influential factors on individual adaptation behaviour is thus essential. Many behavioural theories hypothesise a vital role of the adaptation intention toward adaptation behaviour. However, the literature shows a substantial gap between intention and behaviour, referred to as intention behaviour gap. This could be because most existing research is based on cross-sectional data, which does not reveal the changes in attitudes, intentions, and behaviour over time. For example, implemented measures might reduce the intention and behaviour, but these changes cannot be captured by only one survey time point. Our research thus deploys a two-wave panel survey with 401 respondents from Central Vietnam to (1) examine the dynamics of behaviour and intention over time, (2) examine the role of intention on actual behaviour and vice versa, (3) find influential predictors explaining intention and behaviour, and statistically compare the predictors.

Linear mixed models (LMMs) show that adaptive behaviour and intention of three groups of measures, namely, preparing devices, retrofitting houses, and adapting livelihoods, have significantly increased after half a year, except for the intention of preparing devices. The most influential factors in explaining behaviour and behavioural change are housing situations, personality traits, social norms, coping appraisals, and intention. For intention, socio-demographic characteristics, risk perceptions, social norms, and personalities are more important. It is noteworthy that the influential factors are highly measure-specific. Specific models show a clear difference in predictors between intention and behaviour. Bivariate LMM and statistical comparisons further confirm that only a handful of predictors could be used as interchangeable proxies between behaviour and intention. For example, out of 18 examined factors, only wishful thinking, knowledge, and moving permanently show similar influence on both the intention and behaviour of retrofitting houses. By contrast, house type, respondent’s age, building a new home, and house located in an urban area show significantly different influences; the remaining factors are uncertain to use as interchangeable proxies. These results suggest carefully reconsidering the use of research on intention to draw policy recommendations for behaviour in the flood risk domain.

How to cite: Luu, T., Thieken, A., Haer, T., Tran, T., and Bubeck, P.: The dynamics and influential factors of intentions and actual behaviours in flood adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3645, 2025.

EGU25-4131 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Exploring Human-Water Feedbacks in a Rapidly Changing World  

Giuliano Di Baldassarre

This presentation highlights recent case studies, models, and global analyses that reveal emerging trends and patterns in human-water interactions and feedbacks in our rapidly changing, human-dominated world. Human activities worldwide are increasingly altering hydrological regimes, including the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts. These alterations result from various interventions, including the construction of water infrastructure, river flow diversions for irrigation or other purposes, land-use changes such as deforestation and urbanization, as well as climate alterations driven by greenhouse gas emissions. While societies shape hydrological extremes, they are also profoundly affected by these events. Following floods or droughts, human responses range from informal adaptations to deliberate strategies, including modifications to agricultural practices, revisions of social contracts, and both temporary and permanent migration. These interactions between heterogeneous human and water systems often produce unintended consequences, amplify risk dynamics, and exacerbate existing inequalities. Such feedbacks complicate the development of equitable and sustainable policies, frequently resulting in unprecedented events with catastrophic and uneven impacts. 

How to cite: Di Baldassarre, G.: Exploring Human-Water Feedbacks in a Rapidly Changing World , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4131, 2025.

EGU25-4584 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Perception versus reality: Farmers’ adaptation and the dynamics of Sahel drought 

Nadir Ahmed Elagib, Abbas E. Rahma, and Karl Schneider

The African Sahel has long been a focal point for research and policy discourse on drought. Inhabitants heavily rely for sustenance and economy on agriculture. Thus, crop yield is a key measure of success or failure. Since crop yield depends heavily on water availability, it is indicative of the function and efficiency of the farming-water system used. This system is said to have undergone significant variations in the biophysical and socioeconomic features during the past five decades. Understanding the interactions of climate variability and especially drought process and farming system development is important to sustainable and adaptive resource management. This study explores the coevolution of farming-drought relationship in the Sahel with a special reference to Sudan. We aim at synthesizing a number of insights into the sociohydrological resilience of the Sahel farming system. To this end, we analyzed two gridded datasets on drought indices and two staple crop statistics since 1970 in addition to structured survey questionnaires with ~1100 farmers. The analysis is further bolstered by recent findings from DFG funded SHADRESS project. The analysis shows that farmers have developed different agricultural strategies to cope with drought. Sorghum and millet yields have not kept pace to match the steadily expanding planted areas as would be expected. Both crops thereon reveal an inconsistent performance in terms of yield vulnerability and resilience to both dry and wet conditions. Farmers reported that sorghum (51%) is more affected by climate vagaries as compared to millet (15%). Inadequate rainfall is perceived by more than two-third of the respondents as the main reason for declining yield. However, during the last three decades, the importance of drought characteristics in determining crop yield levels decreased. Notwithstanding the benefits brought about by wet conditions, the farming system is likewise vulnerable to wet extremes, though somewhat to a lesser extent. The above observations suggest that the adjustment measures adopted by farmers are not sufficiently reducing the risk of crop failure. The respondents indicated other non-climatic issues beyond drought as being responsible for low yields, putting constraints on farming adaptations. In conclusion, identifying suitable pathways to adaptive agricultural management is needed to increase stability and resilience. These pathways should address vagaries of both the natural and the societal conditions. The combined implications of both droughts and floods as well as the integrated multi-faceted factors currently influencing the interplay between the farmer and water system must be recognized.

How to cite: Elagib, N. A., Rahma, A. E., and Schneider, K.: Perception versus reality: Farmers’ adaptation and the dynamics of Sahel drought, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4584, 2025.

EGU25-6037 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

Climate hazard impacts to water supply - Learning from past floods and droughts in Sweden 

Jeanne Fernandez, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Claudia Teutschbein, and Johanna Mård

Water supply is one of the critical services that can be disrupted by climate-related disasters. Floods and droughts, in particular, can cause damages to infrastructure and alterations of water source quality and availability. In the Nordic water sector, concern about climate risks has been growing due to the successive dry summers from 2016 to 2018, major flooding events in 2023, various heavy rainfall events, as well as projections that floods and seasonal droughts could become more frequent and intense in many regions. Knowledge from past events is essential to prepare for potential climate impacts. However, learning opportunities are currently limited as small local impacts to water supply are rarely reported in national and global databases. This study examined climate impacts to water supply in Sweden, in the period 2010-2024. Drawing from reports by regional authorities, local surveys, and media articles, we mapped the occurrence of flood and drought events throughout the country and compiled both the impacts to water supply and post-event evaluations of the disaster response. The results indicate that past climate hazards have led to impacts ranging from sewage pipe breaks and inundated pump stations to poor raw water quality and low surface- and ground-water levels. Disruptions of drinking water services have been minor and manageable, while interruptions affecting consumers, such as water use restrictions or water boil advisories have generally been brief and of a preventive nature. However, regarding disaster management, official reports reveal a lack of hydrological knowledge, the absence of a big-picture understanding during events, and insufficient coordination with neighbor regions and across governance levels. These results concur with previous findings that societal impacts to drinking water supply have, so far, been limited in the Nordic region. Nonetheless, impacts are expected to become more serious in the future due to climate change and challenges in crisis management. This underscores the importance of building robust impact and response databases to support water managers in improving disaster preparedness and ensuring the continued security of safe drinking water supplies.

How to cite: Fernandez, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teutschbein, C., and Mård, J.: Climate hazard impacts to water supply - Learning from past floods and droughts in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6037, 2025.

Characteristics of flood risk research and methodological requirements to understand the dynamics of human-flood relationships

Flood risk is one of the most pressing global challenges, exacerbated by climate change, urbanisation and land-use change leading to more frequent and severe flood events. Addressing these risks requires overcoming three key challenges: building a robust knowledge base for disaster risk reduction at all stages, developing strategies and measures that address current risks while managing uncertainties, and effectively implementing these strategies within the disaster risk reduction cycle. Understanding the feedback loops in human water and flood risk systems is a prerequisite for overcoming these challenges.

Transdisciplinary approaches integrate scientific methods with regional knowledge and practical expertise. For example, transdisciplinary or participatory methods can be used to validate data, identify regional hot spots, develop relevant scenarios and possible adaptation measures and identify implementation and decision-making structures for the actual realisation of measures.

Flood risk research has certain characteristics. It is highly complex. Various interlinked factors influence flood risk within and between environmental and social systems. Different flood risk factors at different spatial and temporal scales influence the occurrence of floods, and exposure and vulnerability affect the actual risk that materialises. Different temporal scales lead to different levels of flood risk and require targeted measures. Technical tools such as hydrological and hydrodynamic flood models are crucial for understanding and visualising processes and interrelationships as well as possible development options. Missing data or a lack of detail influence the informative value and increase uncertainties, especially at the local level. Finally yet importantly, flood risk and vulnerability are highly context-specific and localised in specific historical, cultural and social circumstances.

In this article, we describe the requirements arising from these characteristics and the resulting demands on and potential for transdisciplinary research. We draw on findings from the PARADeS project, a collaborative research initiative on flood risk management in Ghana.

We describe the framework and possible methods for a. knowledge co-production to understand interactions within the flood risk system, among others; b. social learning to understand the complexity of human-flood interactions and causes; and b. capacity building, e.g. to create and use a flood information system to learn about impacts and feedbacks in the Ghanaian flood risk system.

The combined and complementary quantitative and qualitative methods significantly improve the information base for proactive flood risk prevention, clarify structural and social conditions, interlinkages and contexts for implementation and thus identify efficient flood risk reduction measures.

How to cite: Evers, M., Höllermann, B., and Kruse, S.: Characteristics of flood risk research and methodological requirements to understand the dynamics of human-flood relationships, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7143, 2025.

EGU25-7394 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

Effects of Warm Period Timing and Coastal Low Clouds on Water Deliveries in Coastal Southern California 

Laney Wicker, Rachel Clemesha, Kristen Guirguis, Jane Baldwin, and Morgan Levy

The impacts of climate change on water resource availability will be felt both directly and indirectly through changes in water supply and water demand, respectively. Physical water supply changes due to climate stem from modified precipitation, temperature and evaporation, and streamflow, while changes in water demand stem from the same, as well as additional land use and land cover and socioeconomic features. As urban and agricultural water demands are projected to increase under climate change, a regional understanding of both water supply and demand responses to climate change will be necessary to equip water resource managers with locally-relevant, research-driven insights to guide adaptation. In previous work, we investigated the water delivery response to temperature and precipitation changes within the semi-arid San Diego County, located in the Southern California region of the U.S. There, we established that water agency-scale water deliveries are sensitive to temperature and background hydrologic conditions (i.e., antecedent precipitation), and that the temperature sensitivity of water deliveries is mediated by geographic and demographic features such as land cover. Here, we build on this research to further investigate the role of climate in mediating water deliveries in the Southern California region. Specifically, we investigate the hypothesis that the timing of a warm period additionally mediates water deliveries depending on agency attributes such as land cover. For example, agricultural agencies may respond differently than urban agencies to warm periods that occur during pivotal crop growing stages. Additionally, we hypothesize that coastal low clouds may impact water deliveries through the modulation of temperatures during warm periods. We investigate these hypotheses for 20 San Diego region water agencies using daily records of water deliveries made to the agencies from a regional wholesale water supplier, temperature, coastal low cloud coverage, annual precipitation, and agency-level attributes such as income and land cover from May to September for the years 2007 - 2021. This study of a representative arid urban region improves our understanding of coupled human and water system responses to climate variability and change in order to support adaptive water resources management in water-stressed environments. 

How to cite: Wicker, L., Clemesha, R., Guirguis, K., Baldwin, J., and Levy, M.: Effects of Warm Period Timing and Coastal Low Clouds on Water Deliveries in Coastal Southern California, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7394, 2025.

EGU25-7434 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

Present and future water quality affects water use and cross-sectoral competition globally 

Gabriel Antonio Cárdenas Belleza, L.P.H. (Rens) van Beek, Marc F.P. Bierkens, and Michelle T.H. van Vliet

Human activities strongly rely on the availability of sufficient water and of adequate quality, yet water use sectors (e.g. irrigation, domestic, industry and energy), already experience clean water scarcity. Additionally, the availability of clean water is further compromised by increasing water demand of the growing population, deterioration of water quality due to pollution by emissions by the different sections, and by more frequent and intense hydroclimatic extremes (e.g. droughts, heatwaves, and compound events). These developments increase the cross-sectoral competition for the available water (Cárdenas Belleza et al, 2023). Current research on large-scale water scarcity related to insufficient water of good quality has provided limited understanding of the sector-specific impacts. This limits our understanding of how water quality affects water sources allocation to different water use sectors and how such responses will impact sector-specific and total water scarcity under global change.

The main objective of this research is to assess cross-sectoral water scarcity due to sectoral competition for limited clean water resources, explicitly considering water quantity and water quality requirements under global change. To address this, we developed a new globally applicable sectoral water use and allocation model, QUAlloc v1.0, that incorporates water quality requirements across main water use sectors (domestic, irrigation, livestock, manufacturing, and energy). QUAlloc v1.0 is linked to the PCR‑GLOBWB 2 hydrological model (Sutanudjaja et al, 2018) and the DynQual v1.0 global surface water quality model (Jones et al, 2023), forming a sectoral water quality, use and allocation modelling framework.

Our results show that present surface water quality strongly affects both water source allocation and sectoral water use competition in river basins globally, resulting in a significant reduction in global surface water withdrawals (by 17%) and an increased dependence on groundwater (e.g., Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa). Additionally, we show that sectors with less stringent water quality requirements, namely livestock and manufacturing, benefit by the reduced surface water withdrawal from other sectors (i.e., domestic, irrigation), enabling to increase its withdrawal. Projections of sector-specific water scarcity under climate change and socio-economic changes for the whole 21st century suggest that these inter-sectoral impacts will become increasingly stronger in the future. Our study is the first in exploring the impacts of present and future water quality in the cross-sectoral water use competition and their effects on sector-specific water scarcity globally.

References:

Cárdenas B., G.A., Bierkens, M.F.P., van Vliet, M.T.H.: Sectoral water use responses to droughts and heatwaves: analyses from local to global scales for 1990-2019. Environ. Res. Lett. 18 104008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf82e, 2023.

Sutanudjaja, E.H., van Beek, L.P.H., de Jong, S.M., van Geer, F.C., and Bierkens, M.F.P.: Calibrating a large-extent high-resolution coupled groundwater-land surface model using soil moisture and discharge data, Water Resour. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018.

Jones, E.R., Bierkens, M.F.P., Wanders, N., Sutanudjaja, E.H., van Beek, L.P.H., and van Vliet, M.T.H.: DynQual v1.0: a high-resolution global surface water quality model, Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4481–4500, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4481-2023, 2023.

How to cite: Cárdenas Belleza, G. A., van Beek, L. P. H. (., Bierkens, M. F. P., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Present and future water quality affects water use and cross-sectoral competition globally, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7434, 2025.

EGU25-10487 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3 | Highlight

How will 13 million global farming households respond to coastal flooding and salt intrusion under sea level rise? DYNAMO-M 

Kushagra Pandey, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

Coastal flooding and sea level rise (SLR) will affect farmers in coastal areas, as increasing salinity levels will reduce crop yields. These impacts will lead to net income loss for farming communities. In response, farmers can take various actions. To assess such responses under SLR at the global scale, we applied DYNAMO-M, a global agent-based model (ABM), to simulate the actions of 13 million farming households in global coastal areas, focusing on those living in 1-in-100-year floodplains and growing 23 major crops. The decision rules in the model (DYNAMO-M) for simulating migration and adaptation are based on the economic theory of subjective expected utility. This theory posits that households can maximize their welfare by deciding whether to (a) stay and face losses from salinization and flooding, (b) stay and adapt (e.g., switching to salt-tolerant crops and enhancing physical resilience such as elevating houses), or (c) migrate to safer inland areas. In our model, current and future coastal flood risk is assessed by combining flood hazard data (with- and without SLR and climate change), the exposure of farmers to flooding and crops to salinization. Vulnerability curves connect hazard and exposure data to estimate (future-) risk. We simulate flood and salinization risk for the period 2020-2080 at a yearly timestep. For each time step, the adaptive response of each individual farming household is simulated as well. Results show that major hotspots of coastal migration are coastal areas of Florida, New York, Oregon in USA, coasts of Japan, China, Philippines and Italy. We further run insurance and policy scenarios to show how government policies like damage coverage and aid in adaptation can help in offsetting the impact of flood risk.

How to cite: Pandey, K., de Bruijn, J., de Moel, H., Botzen, W., and C. J. H. Aerts, J.: How will 13 million global farming households respond to coastal flooding and salt intrusion under sea level rise? DYNAMO-M, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10487, 2025.

EGU25-10821 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Disentangling Climate Change and Land Use Effects on UK River Flows: Policy and Flow interactions 

Kaia Waxenberg, Nick Wray, Lindsay Beevers, Soledad Garcia Ferrari, and Athanasios Angeloudis

River systems provide essential natural services to communities around the world. Throughout human history, rivers have provided natural water filtration, water and food provision, transport, and recreational opportunities. However, rivers can also expose human systems to natural hazards such as floods and droughts, which are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency due to future climate change. Large scale land use change has the potential to compound the effects of climate change by further altering downstream river flows. This complex relationship, between climate change, land use policy, land use, and river flows, is poorly understood to date.  

Due to its extensive and long-standing river monitoring network, the UK provides a good place to explore the evolution of river flows over the past few decades. This project aims to illustrate how land use policy and planning frameworks can affect catchment hydrology, potentially compounding the effects of climate change on river flows. We focus on policy and river flows in the Trent and Clyde catchments, two catchments with diverse land uses covering the two largest devolved nations in the UK (England and Scotland respectively).   

Through semi-structured interviews, spatial data analysis, and statistical decomposition techniques, we investigate complex relationships between policy, practice, land use, and river flow metrics. We identify three main patterns of land use change which may have affected river flows through this period: afforestation, agricultural intensification, and urbanisation. We also compile a timeline of policies which have affected these three identified land uses in each study catchment. The policy analysis is then related to observed changes in river flows using our climate change attribution methodology for river flow changes (Wray et al., 2024). Our attribution method employs regressions analysis of historical precipitation and temperature against streamflow to derive probability density functions (PDFs) representing the proportion of changes in various streamflow metrics attributable to climate change.  The resulting PDF, representing the climate change attribution, varied depending on the flow metric chosen, as well as temporally over the decades. 

Our transdisciplinary work suggests that certain policies have the potential to exacerbate the effects of climate change on flood and drought risk, and these effects are currently insufficiently represented in the planning process. We hope that by linking previously disconnected knowledge and data, this work will inspire future improvements in land and water management policy.  

How to cite: Waxenberg, K., Wray, N., Beevers, L., Garcia Ferrari, S., and Angeloudis, A.: Disentangling Climate Change and Land Use Effects on UK River Flows: Policy and Flow interactions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10821, 2025.

EGU25-11358 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Quantifying risk dynamics on Rawa Pening floodplain using optical images gathered by satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle 

yus budiyono, Ibrahim Dwi Ariyoko, Qoriatu Zahro, and Nana Sudiana

The floodplain of lake Rawa Pening, experience spatio-temporal dynamics due to regime shifts of wet and dry season as well as a more persisten land use changes in the upland area. The high yield of rice agriculture in the floodplain has also been bothered by additional entity rooted on the socio-economic value of the plain. Our research focused on floodplain in the vicinity of the Torong River, Banyubiru District that recently incurred river normalization project. Compare to the rest eight  catchments delivering effluents into the lake, we assume normalization will change sediment budget, in way the dynamics can be captured well by detailing imagery acquired from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photography.

Land use change is observed using high temporal resolution of optical satellite imagery and the verification using UAV images. Sentinel-2 optical imagery is used for the macrozonation. Because of the high temporal resolution, we eliminate images with cloud interference exceeding the specified threshold while assuring data continuity. At time when Sentinel-2 is planned to pass over, we also acquire UAV photos of different heights aimed to detail reality mapping of the area. To get land productivity, we use statistical information and semi-structured interviews of randomly selected samples for each land use class.

Our initial results using longer period Google Earth images showed both extreme and gradual changes of land use, partly due to irregular temporal captures. Sentinel-2 is available in shorter historical period providing denser images every 5 days. At the same capture time, UAV capture images to opens potentials for further color manipulations matching the productivity. For the moment, our investigation on land productivity still relied on manual delineation of straight skeleton visible in both approaches. High productivity of ricefield in the floodplain area also still relied on semi-structured interviews and statistical reports by village adminstrations. With the constraints, risk of land use change observed using current satellite images and UAV accords on the manual delineation process. As a result, we found Sentinel-2 images is sufficient to predict risk changes particularly for fish culture and tourism, while spatial ricefield productivity using satellite and UAV images still require complex experimentation on color spectrum and operational acquisition height of the UAV.

How to cite: budiyono, Y., Ariyoko, I. D., Zahro, Q., and Sudiana, N.: Quantifying risk dynamics on Rawa Pening floodplain using optical images gathered by satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11358, 2025.

EGU25-11405 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

A data-driven framework for the temporal extrapolation of annual water withdrawals for hydrological modelling 

Paul Zarpas, Maria-Helena Ramos, Gaëlle Tallec, Fanny Sarrazin, Aldo Penasso, and Sébastien Baron

In the context of anthropogenic climate change and increasing pressure on water resources from human use, it is necessary to provide stakeholders with tools to quantify water availability under present and future conditions, and to guide public policy in water management. To this end, anthropogenic effects need to be integrated into hydrological modeling. One of the major challenges in modeling human-impacted hydrological systems is the quantification of water withdrawals at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Due to a general lack of direct observational data, these withdrawals must often be modeled. The strategy for data-based modeling of water withdrawals depends on the water use sector: irrigation is traditionally subject to a process-based approach, while public freshwater supply is often modelled using regression techniques. Recently, machine-learning techniques have been explored to model freshwater withdrawals and, in the irrigation sector, to identify drivers and, in rarer cases, to predict water withdrawals.   

In this study, we present a data-driven framework to quantify irrigation water with limited data.  We illustrate our methodological development with an application over 74 non-nested catchments in France, where water withdrawals are documented based on declarations for a short historic period (since 2008) and at a coarse temporal resolution (annual volumes). To obtain longer time series for the calibration of a hydrological model, we perform a temporal extrapolation of irrigation water withdrawals at the catchment scale. To predict the annual withdrawal, we use a mixed-effects model that explicitly distinguishes between structural variation (e.g. annual change in area equipped for irrigation) and random variation (e.g. change in meteorological and soil conditions). These two terms are modeled using a random forest algorithm. We evaluate the robustness of the model by excluding, at a turn, from the training set: (i) catchments located in the same region to evaluate the spatial extrapolation performance, and (ii) a year of data for all the catchments to evaluate the temporal extrapolation. Our results show that the structural variation modelling term is particularly robust on temporal extrapolation (overall RMSE of 25% of the predicted value), while the random variation modelling term performs well in both temporal and spatial extrapolation (overall Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.72 and 0.80). We discuss how the framework can be used to disaggregate annual values of water withdrawal and be integrated into hydrological modelling.

This work received funding from the European Life Revers'Eau project.

How to cite: Zarpas, P., Ramos, M.-H., Tallec, G., Sarrazin, F., Penasso, A., and Baron, S.: A data-driven framework for the temporal extrapolation of annual water withdrawals for hydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11405, 2025.

EGU25-13506 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

Advancing our understanding of human-water dynamics through empirical findings on households' flood adaptation behavior in Hue, Vietnam 

Dominic Sett, Le Dang Bao Chau, Nguyen Dang Giang Chau, Michael Hagenlocher, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret Thieken

Communities around the globe are at substantial risk of being threatened by hydrological extremes, particularly by floods. Adapting to exacerbating flood risks is hence of utmost importance to safeguard people’s wellbeing. Households are critical for flood risk adaptation as their actions have proved effective and efficient in diminishing risks. At the same time, past flood experiences, as well as risk and adaptation capability perceptions are often considered important factors driving household adaptation. These linkages suggest complex human-water system dynamics, characterized by positive, i.e. reinforcing, and negative, i.e. hampering, feedback between household behavior and flood risks and impacts alike. Empirical evidence on this complex interaction is mixed, indicating diverting effects, and findings are predominately derived from case studies in the Global North. Therefore, additional data - particularly from the Global South - is needed to advance understanding of the complex human-water dynamics.

Building on this knowledge gap, our study presents insights into human-water dynamics from the highly flood-prone city of Hue in Central Vietnam. Drawing on a household survey (n=550) and follow-up semi-structured household interviews (n=30), we apply descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and qualitative content analysis to assess patterns and interlinkages of household flood adaptation behavior, past flood experiences, perceived future flood risks, and perceived adaptation capabilities.

Our results suggest that past flood experiences significantly shape households' flood risk perception. Interestingly, households that have been affected by floods in the past reported a higher perceived likelihood of being affected again in the future while their perceived future impact severity did not differ from non-affected households. In general, the perceived severity of flood impacts is assessed significantly lower than the perceived likelihood of impacts. This finding relates to an attitude of “living with the floods”, which strongly builds on the belief that floods cannot be avoided, but that people have always managed to cope with flood impacts. Therefore, risk perception generally only has a moderate effect on households' adaptation intention, although low levels of risk perception can act as a central barrier to future adaptation for some households. In contrast, perceived adaptation capabilities, particularly households' self-efficacy beliefs, have a strong effect on adaptation intention. While low self-efficacy, often driven by contextual factors including old age, poor health, or the lack of financial resources, acts as a significant barrier to adaptation, social networks were found to increase self-efficacy, thereby boosting adaptation intention.

In conclusion, our results decipher central human-water interlinkages and thereby provide vital hints for improved risk management and adaptation. For example, risk awareness-building campaigns should not be limited to increasing risk perception but also aim at strengthening perceived adaptation capabilities, such as through skills and knowledge building, to more effectively nudge households’ adaptation intention.

How to cite: Sett, D., Bao Chau, L. D., Giang Chau, N. D., Hagenlocher, M., Bubeck, P., and Thieken, A.: Advancing our understanding of human-water dynamics through empirical findings on households' flood adaptation behavior in Hue, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13506, 2025.

EGU25-14101 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

A Conceptual Agent-Based Model for Analyzing the Levee Effect in Indian Floodplains 

Apoorva Singh, Richard Dawson, and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya

The paradoxical increase in flood-related damages, despite rising investments in flood protection measures, underscores the need to understand the two-way feedback between floodplain communities and floods. The phenomenon of increased exposure in the regions protected by levees, known as the "levee effect," has been examined by previous researchers through monitoring the change in flood hazard, exposure to flood risk, and flood vulnerability.

As flood risk perception, vulnerabilities, and coping mechanisms differ among individuals, it is evident that not everyone is inclined to settle near embankments. Moreover, this study posits that flood damages do not inherently compel entire communities to relocate from floodplains, especially when their livelihoods are intertwined with the resources provided by the floodplains. Further, specific households may manage to enhance their resilience while choosing to stay within the floodplains. In this study, we explore whether these interactions increase or decrease the aggregated vulnerability of the floodplain community.

Using an agent-based modeling approach, we prescribe rules for household agents’ interactions with their environment, incorporating heterogeneity of human behavior. The ABM conceptualized in this study aims to simulate the levee effect in Indian floodplains and evaluate the long-term efficiency of structural flood protection measures in the Indian floodplains. Moreover, this study seeks to contribute insights into community-based flood management practices and inform policies aimed at disaster resilience.

How to cite: Singh, A., Dawson, R., and Dhanya, C. T.: A Conceptual Agent-Based Model for Analyzing the Levee Effect in Indian Floodplains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14101, 2025.

EGU25-15681 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

Flood human impacts within and beyond the flooded area: results of a survey conducted in Marche region after the flood of 2022. 

Sara Rrokaj, Philip Bubeck, Annegret Thieken, and Daniela Molinari

Despite the primary aim of flood risk assessment and management to mitigate the negative impacts of floods on people, Italy lacks adequate tools for assessing flood human impact. In fact, current assessments are limited to estimating the number of residents in flooded areas. This approach underestimates the human impact as it disregards the broader spectrum of societal impacts and does not include indirectly exposed groups, who may, for example, suffer income losses due to the disruption of economic activities affected by the flood. However, addressing these impacts is key to guarantee healthy lives and well-being for all, as requested by the third Sustainable Development Goal. To better understand the broad spectrum of human impact, a questionnaire was distributed via a social media and local newspapers campaign to directly, indirectly and not affected citizens of the municipalities hit by the exceptional flood event that struck the Marche region, Italy, on September 15th, 2022. The survey elicited the perceived severity of flood impacts accounting for both direct (e.g., physical injuries, property damage) and indirect impacts (e.g., disruptions to daily life, post-event illnesses, psychological stress), together with socio-economic data and flood event information. About 700 responses were received, nearly half of which came from directly affected people. The analysis of the perceived severity of impacts across the three respondent groups revealed that, while direct tangible impacts were significant only for those directly affected, indirect intangible impacts were significant for both indirectly and not affected respondents. This finding confirms that the current approach, which focuses only on directly affected individuals, underestimates the human impact. Furthermore, the psychological stress induced by the flood was significant in all three groups, highlighting the need for targeted preventive measures and post-event mental health support for the whole community.

How to cite: Rrokaj, S., Bubeck, P., Thieken, A., and Molinari, D.: Flood human impacts within and beyond the flooded area: results of a survey conducted in Marche region after the flood of 2022., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15681, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15681, 2025.

EGU25-15950 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Ancestral Human-Water Feedbacks Help on New Regional Models of Anthropogenic Effects and Interactions with Local Communities 

Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Denise Taffarello, Tercio Ambrizzi, Suzana Montenegro, Leonor Patricia Morellato, Dirce Maria Lobo Marchioni, Adelaide Nardocci, Antonio Saraiva, Nancy Doubleday, and Jose Marengo

We state Ancestral Human-Water Feedbacks (AHWF) into derived regional models of anthropogenic effects and interactions with local communities. On the one hand, we revisit alternative AHWF models from Ailton Krenak’s ancestral future perspectives, quoted for the value of history in global hydrological paradigms (Beven et al, 2025) and even enhanced into hydrological heritage living with droughts (i.e. Pereira et al, 2025). On the other hand, we adapt AHWF models for regional scales from both non-formal cosmogony (e.g. Apgar et al, 2009) and externalist perspectives on metacognition (i.e. from Arfini & Magnani’s, 2022). Thus, the AHWF puts concepts of “knowledge”, “information” and “belief” into practice. In this AHWF, new “embodied”, “extended” and “distributed” anthropogenic effects, with novel sociohydrological archetypes, are theoretically modeled. To conceptualize and simulate feedbacks in human water systems, this AHWF is applied for the coevolution of the Center of Water Resources and Environ. Studies (CRHEA) in Cerrado Biome, Brazil, with river-lake-hydropower-urban settlements. Therefore, connections to regional biomes like the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest are possible to include in this AHWF model through the support of the DREAMS project (‘Flash DRought Event evolution chAracteristics and the response Mechanism to climate change considering the Spatial correlations). Moreover, the AHWF is now operationalised with the SOPHIE initiative (Sustainable Observatory of Planetary Health through Innovation and Entrepreneurship”), with the possibility of the creation of databases for future digital twins and serious games. Topical applications of this AHWF model range for all IPCC-climate impact-drivers and their composite risks (i.e. planetary health, agri-food systems, climate change, water security, biodiversity losses, etc.) with focus on adaptation to hydrological extremes like floods, droughts and water scarcity. Future works are envisaged for the co-alignment of legacies of the IAHS-HELPING Science Decade, the WMO Early Warnings for All initiative, the UNESCO-IHP-IX Strategic Plan, the IWA Digital Water Program and the UNEP World Water Quality Alliance.

References: Apgar et al (2009) Intl. J. Interdiscipl. Soc. Sci.,  https://doi.org./10.18848/1833-1882/CGP/v04i05/52925; Arfini, S., Magnani, L., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-01922-7; Beven et al, 2025, Hydrol. Sci. J., https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2025.2452357; Mendiondo, E M (2023) DREAMS Project, FAPESP 22/08468-0, https://bv.fapesp.br/en/auxilios/111385/flash-drought-event-evolution-characteristics-and-the-response-mechanism-to-climate-change-consideri/Pereira et al, 2025, Hydrol. Sci. J.,  https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2446272

How to cite: Mendiondo, E. M., Taffarello, D., Ambrizzi, T., Montenegro, S., Morellato, L. P., Marchioni, D. M. L., Nardocci, A., Saraiva, A., Doubleday, N., and Marengo, J.: Ancestral Human-Water Feedbacks Help on New Regional Models of Anthropogenic Effects and Interactions with Local Communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15950, 2025.

EGU25-18255 | PICO | HS5.2.3

Fostering integrated water resource management coupling airGRiwrm hydrological model and agent-based modeling (NetLogo) 

David Dorchies, Bruno Bonté, Pariphat Promduangsri, and Debomitra Sil

Water scarcity has become an increasingly problematic issue due to the intensifying effects of climate change (e.g., rising temperatures, precipitation pattern change) and to the growing demands (e.g., population growth, economic development, intensive farming and industrial activities).  Ensuring equitable water allocation is therefore becoming a major concern for stakeholders (e.g., managers, companies, citizens and local authorities).

To address these challenges, we are using the concept of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM).  This aims to incorporate both the physical and social dimensions of water management.  IWRM is a “process that promotes coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems” (GWP, 2000).

However, linking the physical and social dimensions of water management within a IWRM framework is always challenging.  We have been exploring the potential of coupling two quantitative models in order to bridge this gap.  One model is the AirGRiwrm hydrological model (Dorchies et al., 2021), built on the R-package airGR with new features to integrate human uses and regulations into simulated river flows.  The other model is NetLogo, a programming language and integrated development environment (IDE) for Agent-Based Modeling (ABM); it can be used to model and simulate complex natural and social interactions.

Within the scope of modeling and simulation, we think that this model coupling can be used to bridge the gap between physical modeling and social simulation for IWRM. On the one hand, Role Playing Games used in our community as models of IWRM systems lack of quantitative robustness. On the other hand, airGR models are calibrated on data easy to validate. Agent-Based Models seems to be the right tool to combine both approaches.

This presentation focuses on a case study: the anthropized Basse Vallée de l’Hérault (France) located in the Hérault catchment. We present the development process of coupling of AirGRiwrm and NetLogo and how it allows us to simulate concrete scenarios, such as water allocation among competing stakeholders on this case study. We outline in our discussion to what extend the AirGRiwrm-Logo model coupling can be used in hybrid approaches combining participatory modeling based on role playing games and data driven hydrological modeling.

 

References:

Dorchies, D., Delaigue, O., and Thirel, G.: airGRiwrm: an extension of the airGR R-package for handling Integrated Water Resources Management modeling, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2190, 2021.

Global Water Partnership (GWP). (2000). Integrated water resources management (TAC Background Papers No. 4). https://www.gwp.org/globalassets/global/toolbox/publications/background-papers/04-integrated-water-resources-management-2000-english.pdf

How to cite: Dorchies, D., Bonté, B., Promduangsri, P., and Sil, D.: Fostering integrated water resource management coupling airGRiwrm hydrological model and agent-based modeling (NetLogo), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18255, 2025.

EGU25-19228 | ECS | PICO | HS5.2.3

GEB: A coupled socio-hydrological agent-based adaptation model for drought and flood risk management 

Jens de Bruijn, Maurice Kalthof, Veerle Bril, Tarun Sadana, Elisa Stefaniak, Tim Busker, Rafaella Oliveira, Mikhail Smilovic, Xinran Guo, Lars Tierolf, Marthe Wens, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen Aerts

GEB is a new socio-hydrological model coupling an agent-based adaptation model, a fully distributed hydrological model (CWatM), a hydrodynamic model (SFINCS), and a forest evolution model (plantFATE). The model simulates hundreds to millions of individual households, such as crop farmers, which can dynamically respond to their environment, for example, through switching crops and irrigation techniques. Moreover, households can dynamically adapt to changes in flood risk and respond to flood events by wet- or dry-proofing their house. All adaptation decisions consider heterogeneity in the agent population and are grounded in well-known behavioural theories, such as the subjective expected utility theory and the protection motivation theory.

Households also interact with each other (e.g. network effects) and with governmental or private sector stakeholders. Higher-level agents, such as water boards and governments, can test the effectiveness of investing in a wide range of measures and policies (e.g., increasing forested areas, creating water buffers and levees) or (dis)incentivize behaviour through subsidies or pricing.

GEB simulates hydrology and drought impacts at a daily to sub-daily timestep at field-scale resolution, while floods are simulated at a resolution of up to 5 meters. The model can simulate well-known human-natural feedbacks from the governmental to the household levels, and is suitable for assessing timely scientific themes such as the safe-development paradox, the irrigation efficiency paradox, supply-demand cycles, and the reservoir paradox.

The model is fully open source (https://github.com/GEB-model/GEB) and can be set up anywhere globally with reasonable default parameterization with little effort, while allowing for improved parameterization using local data. Current implementations include the Krishna basin (India), the Meuse (Western Europe), the Murray-Darling basin (Australia), and the Hetao irrigation area (China). We encourage other researchers and practitioners to test, use, and contribute to the model.

How to cite: de Bruijn, J., Kalthof, M., Bril, V., Sadana, T., Stefaniak, E., Busker, T., Oliveira, R., Smilovic, M., Guo, X., Tierolf, L., Wens, M., de Moel, H., Botzen, W., and Aerts, J.: GEB: A coupled socio-hydrological agent-based adaptation model for drought and flood risk management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19228, 2025.

Dam construction poses a significant threat to the health of watershed ecosystems by altering natural hydrological regimes. This study assesses the impact of multiple dams on hydrological flow patterns and aquatic ecosystems in the Upper Cauvery River Basin, India. It focuses on the trade-offs between economic benefits and ecological services resulting from modified flow regimes. This study uses a previously developed integrated model that combines a landscape-based hydrological framework with a reservoir operations model at the basin scale to provide new insights into the daily-scale alterations of ecosystem services. This approach is flexible to simulate changes in flow regimes due to the synthetic placement of reservoirs at any location within the river network. As a proof of concept, the study evaluates economic and ecological consequences that may arise from alternative spatial configurations of existing reservoirs in the Upper Cauvery Basin.  Further, the hydrological impacts of reservoir configurations are quantified using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). Two critical ecosystem services dependent on river flow regimes—irrigated agricultural production and fish biodiversity, represented by a normalized fish diversity index—are evaluated. A trade-off curve, or production possibility frontier, illustrates the relationship between these services. The findings indicate that smaller reservoirs located on lower-order streams are more favourable for balancing economic and environmental outcomes than larger reservoirs. Additionally, irrigating higher-value crops can maximize the economic return from stored water and result in similar economic benefits with lower storage needs and less hydrological disruption. This approach allows water and river basin managers to assess the provision of ecosystem services in hydrologically altered basins, optimize operations of reservoirs, and make decisions on removing dams where feasible and necessary, leading to a more balanced approach towards managing ecosystem services.

How to cite: Ekka, A., Jiang, Y., Pande, S., and van der Zaag, P.: Understanding Trade-Offs Among Ecosystem Services of Multiple Dams in the Upper Cauvery Basin: A Hydro-Economic Analysis Using a Landscape-Based Hydrological Model", EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19381, 2025.

HS5.3 – Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus

EGU25-98 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Exploring the Sensitivity of Crop Water Footprints to Scale and Estimation Methods in Sustainable Agriculture 

Basant Yadav, Ashish Koradia, Ashish Pandey, Vemuri Chowdary, and Chandrasekar Kk

Agriculture accounts for the majority of global freshwater consumption, underscoring the importance of accurate crop water footprint (WF) estimation to ensure sustainable water use and secure food supplies. Given agriculture’s extensive reliance on freshwater resources, precise WF assessments are crucial for effective resource management and policy-making. Variations in crop WF estimates arise across fields, basins, regions, and countries due to differing methodologies, agro-climatic conditions, regional agricultural practices, and data availability. Most studies have focused on estimating only green and blue WF, often overlooking the water quality dimension (grey WF) and the distinctions among the individual footprints (green, blue, and grey). These variations are critical for understanding diverse water uses and their impacts on both water quantity and quality. This study assessed the variation in all three WFs and measures to address this variability under different WF estimation approaches and scales. Five significant WF estimation approaches were considered: field crop water requirement (FCWR), field soil water balance (FSWB), regional water balance (RWB), remote sensing (RS), and field measured water balance (FMWB). The WF variation for wheat, rice, maize, potato, and sugarcane was assessed from 2002 to 2023. The analysis suggests that the FSWB approach has less variability in WF estimation than the FCWR approach, with the coefficient of variation (CV) for rice, wheat, and maize under the FSWB approach being 45.25%, 61.16%, and 86.21%, respectively. RWB and RS approaches show higher accuracy and feasibility at regional, basin, and country scales. The FMWB approach is the most accurate at the field scale and exhibits the lowest variation in WF estimate, with CVs of 32.23% for rice and 24.49% for wheat. Additionally, the FMWB approach can be used to calibrate and validate other large-scale approaches due to its limitation of upscaling and advantage of higher accuracy. A case study was also performed to estimate WF using the FCWR approach for sugarcane and wheat crops in the Hindon River basin in India to assess the variability in  WF estimation. The total WF of sugarcane and wheat was 266.93 m³/t and 1506 m³/t, respectively, showing variation as these values are nearly equal to, more than, or less than many national and international studies. This variation could be due to scale, data availability, methodology, agro-climatic conditions, and regional agricultural practices. It is recommended that the effects of scale, data accuracy, and suitability of WF estimation approaches for specific crops be considered when making regional water policies based on WF estimation.

Keywords: Water Footprint, Methodology, Scale variability, Crop, Sustainable Agriculture

How to cite: Yadav, B., Koradia, A., Pandey, A., Chowdary, V., and Kk, C.: Exploring the Sensitivity of Crop Water Footprints to Scale and Estimation Methods in Sustainable Agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-98, 2025.

EGU25-918 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Assessment of Sustainable Water Management Strategies in Porsuk Watershed Using Hydrological WEAP Model 

Selin Şipal, İlksen Şenocak, Bilge İrem Yapan, and Emre Alp

Natural resources are under significant pressures, such as increasing population, consumption patterns, land use changes and global warming. Neglecting the pressures and the interactions of resources increases the competition between urban, agricultural and industrial sectors. In addition, water stress affects ecosystem functionality, economic development and social equity. Thus, it is essential to develop integrated water management alternatives considering various objectives. Sustainable approaches should support the success of long-term policies while reducing environmental risks. One of them, the Circular Economy (CE) aims to minimize the gap between supply and demand across the sectors and can be effective in sustainable future development. The Porsuk Watershed in Türkiye is a semi-arid region covering an area of 10,825 km2. The watershed hosts a rich biodiversity while anthropogenic activities pose a threat to ecosystem services. The Porsuk Stream, a tributary of the Sakarya River, has a length of 448 km and is the main source of urban water supply, irrigation water and industrial production. In addition, there is a significant dependence on groundwater across the sectors. The aim of this study is to assess strategies of sustainable water resources management to enhance security and reliability by comparing the performances of Circular Economy models such as Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Replenish. Thus, understanding the complex synergistic and trade-off relationships in resource management within the watershed will contribute to stakeholders in the decision-making process. A hydrological model of the Porsuk stream is created using Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) software between 2004-2022. The most preferred water allocation alternatives are selected according to environmental and economic indicators using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. Scenarios are performed at multiple demand sites in the hydrological model. Accordingly, Reduce alternatives helps to reduce water deficit levels and affect water allocation in the watershed. With the Reuse, Recycle and Replenish scenarios, pressures of agriculture and industry sectors on the groundwater aquifer are mitigated. In addition, the change in environmental flows is compared according to business-as-usual (BAU) and different scenario combinations.

How to cite: Şipal, S., Şenocak, İ., Yapan, B. İ., and Alp, E.: Assessment of Sustainable Water Management Strategies in Porsuk Watershed Using Hydrological WEAP Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-918, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-918, 2025.

EGU25-925 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Trade-offs and synergies in the water-energy-food nexus: The case of sugarcane farming in Maharashtra, India 

Megha Deepak Mhaskar and Parmeshwar D. Udmale

Sugarcane cultivation is a major agricultural sector in Maharashtra, India, contributing significantly to the state’s economy and rural livelihoods. It is a leading state in terms of average production and recovery, with a sixfold increase in its cultivated area from 0.89% in 1960-61 to 5.34% in 2022-23. However, sugarcane is a highly water-intensive crop with a water productivity of 4.48 kg/m3 in the state. About 79.5% of the total sugarcane of Maharashtra is cultivated in drought-prone regions of the state. High profitability, provision of electricity subsidies and Fair and Remunerative Prices (FRP), and a high number of sugar mills are the main factors behind sugarcane cultivation in Maharashtra that have resulted in many environmental consequences. Sugarcane is regarded as an ideal crop for providing both food and bioenergy (ethanol) production due to its large biomass yield in both solid and liquid forms. However, the sustainable management of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources is challenged by the rapid expansion of water-intensive sugarcane, which depletes the water resources and decreases irrigation and production of major food crops. The inherent interactions among the WEF systems result in trade-offs as well as synergies under various policies and decisions.

To address these challenges, we developed an integrated model to investigate the complex interdependencies within the WEF nexus in sugarcane farming using a system dynamic modeling approach. The model is developed using Vensim with a causal loop diagram (CLD) effectively represents the interconnections and cause-effect dynamics among WEF systems. The model is applied to a case study in the district of Maharashtra state, India. The primary data is collected through a survey of farming households. By incorporating data on water availability, energy consumption, crop productivity, and socio-economic factors, the model evaluates the impacts of various management practices and policy interventions. The sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters is analyzed using a one-at-a-time analysis, while the Monte Carlo technique is used for uncertainty assessment and to test the validity of the model. Furthermore, future scenarios are analyzed to assess the impacts of different socio-economic and climatic drivers on WEF resource dynamics. The model highlights the varying degrees of sensitivity, trade-offs, and synergies within the WEF systems under various drivers, including energy-intensive irrigation, food security constraints, and promoting bioenergy production through supportive policies.

How to cite: Mhaskar, M. D. and Udmale, P. D.: Trade-offs and synergies in the water-energy-food nexus: The case of sugarcane farming in Maharashtra, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-925, 2025.

Irrigation is a land management practice with major environmental impacts. However, global energy consumption and carbon emissions resulting from irrigation remain unknown. We assess the worldwide energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with irrigation, while also measuring the potential energy and carbon reductions achievable through the adoption of efficient and low-carbon irrigation practices. Currently, irrigation contributes 216 million metric tons of CO2 emissions and consumes 1896 petajoules of energy annually, representing 15% of greenhouse gas emissions and energy utilized in agricultural operations. Despite only 40% of irrigated agriculture relies on groundwater sources, groundwater pumping accounts for 89% of the total energy consumption in irrigation. Projections indicate that future expansion of irrigation could lead to a 28% increase in energy usage. Embracing highly efficient, low-carbon irrigation methods has the potential to cut energy consumption in half and reduce CO2 emissions by 90%. However, considering country-specific feasibility of mitigation options, global CO2 emissions may only see a 55% reduction. Our research offers comprehensive insights into the energy consumption and carbon emissions associated with irrigation, contributing valuable information that can guide assessments of the viability of irrigation in enhancing adaptive capacity within the agricultural sector.

How to cite: Qin, J. and Duan, W.: Global Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Irrigated Agriculture: Challenges and Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1622, 2025.

EGU25-1715 | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Sustainability of Mediterranean crop rotation systems – evaluation from a water and nitrogen perspective 

Joaquin Jimenez-Martinez and Sandra Pool

In the Mediterranean climate, agriculture often consists of intensively irrigated and fertilized row crop rotations, which can cause significant pressure on groundwater resources and groundwater-dependent ecosystems. A paradigmatic example is the Campo de Cartagena in south-eastern Spain, which is considered as the vegetable and fruit orchard of Europe. To reduce eutrophication events in the nearby lagoon, the regional authorities recently implemented a new regulation that allows two instead of the traditional three-crop rotations. However, there is little guidance for choosing the type and most suitable timing of potential cover crops. Here, we aim to provide some guidance by applying an agro-hydrological modelling approach that considers local crop varieties and agricultural management practices, and long-term climatic variability. The approach is based on the hydrological model Hydrus 1D, which was calibrated against field-based observations of soil moisture, N2O emissions, and plant NO3 uptake for broccoli and fava bean grown in an experimental field site in the Campo de Cartagena. The calibrated model was used to simulate the water and nitrogen cycle under various combinations of crops (broccoli, melon, and lettuce) and cover crops (fava bean, cow pea, and fallow). The daily simulations were run with thirty years of meteorological data to quantify the system’s long-term response and sensitivity to the large interannual climatic variability typically encountered in the study region. The results show the importance of considering climatic variability, especially variations in rainfall, when evaluating the effectiveness of the new policy interventions in terms of both food production and environmental protection.

How to cite: Jimenez-Martinez, J. and Pool, S.: Sustainability of Mediterranean crop rotation systems – evaluation from a water and nitrogen perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1715, 2025.

EGU25-2200 | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

How to Develop Inter-Basin Water Transfer Networks: From the Perspective of Complex Network 

Lichuan Wang, Fan He, and Yong Zhao

Driven by water resources scarcity, Inter-Basin Water Transfer  (IBWT) projects have emerged and evolved, shaping our current water supply framework. As these IBWT unfolded, they gradually acquired network characteristics, giving rise to the IBWT network. What impact will the development of IBWT networks have on water supply patterns? Analyzing the spatial and temporal growth pattern of IBWT networks through the lens of complex network theory can help answer this question. In this study, we establish a framework for analyzing IBWT networks based on complex network theory. Within the framework, we analyze the spatial and temporal development characteristics of the IBWT network, quantifying its global properties across three dimensions: Efficiency, Elasticity, and Coordination. To measure the significance of individual nodes, six centrality indicators are employed. Lastly, the Infomap method is employed for network community detection. The results demonstrate that the CNA-based framework effectively captures the comprehensive development of the IBWT network, which has undergone six stages from inception to high-speed, close-range, and long-range Stages. IBWT network efficiency, elasticity, and coordination all show growth. The growth is most pronounced in 2013-2022, where Scaled global efficiency, Network efficiency, Average node connectivity, and Average Betweenness centrality metrics all grew by a factor of greater than 4. Importantly, the total percentage of centrality greater than 0.2 in the Huang-Huai-Hai-Chang Basin is 63.0%. The 125 IBWT projects in the past of the IBWT network detected 58 communities, and the subsequent future construction of 57 projects added only 12. Since the fourth phase, new IBWT network projects have tended to join existing communities.

How to cite: Wang, L., He, F., and Zhao, Y.: How to Develop Inter-Basin Water Transfer Networks: From the Perspective of Complex Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2200, 2025.

EGU25-2541 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Water and food: sustainability of global agricultural systems and their impacts on water resources and aquatic biodiversity.  

Carole Dalin, Belén Benitez, Elizabeth Boakes, Abbie Chapman, Marcellin Guilbert, and Mark Jwaideh

The complex interactions between water and food systems are central to global sustainability challenges. Agriculture, the largest consumer of freshwater, plays a pivotal role in shaping water quantity and quality worldwide. The intensification of food production has led to widespread environmental damages, including groundwater depletion, nutrient pollution and biodiversity loss. Integrated and inter-disciplinary approaches are essential to address these interconnected issues. This presentation explores the global-scale interactions between water resources and food systems, focusing on agricultural water demand, virtual water trade, and the impacts of nutrient pollution on aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity.

Virtual water trade, which accounts for the transfer of water embedded in traded agricultural goods, has become a crucial component of global food systems. The effects of food trade on water resources is variable, with sometimes an overall efficient, water-saving outcome, and in other cases, increasing depletion of local water resources in exporting nations. Besides, land-use and land-use change driven by the expansion of agricultural activities are significant contributors to terrestrial biodiversity loss, due to habitat conversion and climate change.

In addition to water quantity, the quality of water resources is severely impacted by agricultural inputs, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Excessive nutrient application can lead to eutrophication, algal blooms, and hypoxic zones, threatening aquatic biodiversity and the associated ecosystem services.

This presentation will discuss findings from hydrological, agricultural, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models to evaluate the global-scale impacts of agricultural practices on water availability, quality, and ecosystem health.

Our results reveal that current agricultural practices are unsustainable for many regions, with high water-use intensity and excess fertiliser application leading to significant water scarcity and biodiversity loss. The findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable interventions, including adopting more drought-resistant crop varieties and livestock species, optimizing fertilizer application, shifting diets towards less resource-intensive products, and leveraging virtual water trade to reduce stress in vulnerable regions.

This research contributes to understanding the global interplay between water and food systems, supporting mitigation interventions. By aligning with the session's objectives to address large-scale water management challenges, it advocates for interdisciplinary collaboration and scalable solutions that integrate advanced modelling, policy frameworks, and sustainable practices. This approach is vital to preserving aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, ensuring food security, and achieving long-term water sustainability.

How to cite: Dalin, C., Benitez, B., Boakes, E., Chapman, A., Guilbert, M., and Jwaideh, M.: Water and food: sustainability of global agricultural systems and their impacts on water resources and aquatic biodiversity. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2541, 2025.

EGU25-2819 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Global energy consumption of inter-basin water transfer megaprojects 

Michele Magni, Karsten de Pauw, Jennie C. Steyaert, and Michelle T. H. van Vliet

Between two and three billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month per year, posing severe risks to livelihoods. Inter-basin water transfers (IBWTs) have been used to address water scarcity, supporting the economic development of recipient basins. IBWTs often provide water for multiple sectors, such as drinking water supply and food, energy and industrial production. However, IBWTs have significant adverse impacts during and after their construction, including community displacement, depletion of water resources in donor basins, introduction of invasive species and environmental pollution. Furthermore, it is recognized that these transfers can be energy intensive when water is pumped uphill to cross mountain ranges from donor to recipient basins, resulting in localized energy demands at pumping stations. Yet, a detailed analysis of their energy consumption at the global scale is currently lacking.

In this research, we therefore aimed to build a framework to calculate the energy consumption of IBWTs globally. We collected data concerning the paths, topography and infrastructure of 40 such megaprojects across the globe to quantify the elevation changes traversed by each IBWT. Then, a novel dataset with modelled time series of monthly reservoir discharge (1979-2023) was matched onto the transfer paths to evaluate the amount of water that was moved over time. We use these data as inputs for a physical model of energy consumption for water pumping of IBWT.

Results obtained with the newly developed model framework enable us to understand the influence of infrastructure development on the energy consumption of IBWTs in various regions globally. The gridded outputs of our model framework can be used for the spatial representation of energy consumption of IBWTs in Integrated Assessment Models and Energy Supply Models. Future work aims to expand the dataset to smaller scale inter-basin water transfers, and evaluate the tradeoffs between expanding global clean water provision and mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

How to cite: Magni, M., de Pauw, K., Steyaert, J. C., and van Vliet, M. T. H.: Global energy consumption of inter-basin water transfer megaprojects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2819, 2025.

Reservoir hydropower offers a compelling combination of stability and flexibility services for modern water and power grids. However, its operating flexibility is poorly characterized in energy system planning, missing opportunities to cost-effectively uptake variable renewable energy (VRE) for a clean energy transition. In this study, we have developed a fully coupled reservoir operation and energy expansion model to quantify the economic and environmental benefits attained from adaptive hydropower operation in a high VRE future. Our case study of the China Southern Power Grid reveals that, in a 2050 net-zero grid, simply adapting hydropower operations to balance VRE can reduce 2018–2050 total system costs by 7% (that is, US$28.2 billion) and simultaneously save 123.8 km3 of water each year (that is, more than three times the reservoir capacity of the Three Gorges Dam). These vast, yet overlooked, cost- and water-saving potentials highlight the importance of incorporating balancing-oriented hydropower operation into future pathways to jointly decarbonize and secure power and water grids.

How to cite: He, X. and Liu, Z.: Balancing-oriented hydropower operation makes the clean energy transition more affordable and simultaneously boosts water security, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2970, 2025.

In recent years, Taiwan has encountered several severe drought events, with 2021 marking the most extreme drought in over half a century. Our main food crop, paddy, relies on a stable and consistent water supply. To mitigate dependence on reservoir systems, rainwater harvesting has been identified as a promising decentralized water resource management strategy. This study integrates the distribution of paddy fields across cities in Taiwan with daily rainfall grid data from 2003 to 2022. By inputting different agricultural land areas (1,000 m² and 7,000 m²) under first or second crop seasons, along with daily domestic water demand, into the Yield-After-Spillage model, the study calculates water savings, volumetric reliability, satisfied days, and time reliability. This study also employs a rational formula to estimate the added values of rainwater tanks by flood reduction volumes. Finally, the water savings are used to calculate the cost-effectiveness, including net present value and payback period. This study discusses the impact of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall on the reliability and water savings of first and second rice cropping periods, as well as analyzes the economic feasibility by cost-effectiveness of varying rainwater tank sizes across different regions under diverse water pricing scenarios. The findings of this research provide practical references for both policymakers and farmers. Policy-makers can evaluate the economic feasibility of the rainwater harvesting systems based on simulation results and then formulate subsidy policies or technical guidelines to promote the efficient use of rainwater resources. Based on the study's recommendations, farmers can select rainwater harvesting solutions tailored to their needs, improving irrigation reliability and cost efficiency.

Keywords: Rainwater Harvesting; Rainwater Tank Size; Cost-effectiveness; Water Savings; Reliability; Flood Reduction.

How to cite: Lo, H. C. and Chen, P.-Y.: Assessing the Economic Feasibility of Rainwater Harvesting in Paddy-irrigation Water Savings and Flood-reduction Potentials in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3451, 2025.

EGU25-4745 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Living with drought and floods in the Anthropocene: a case study on nature-based adaptation   

Francesca Moschini and Alberto Pistocchi

The projected decrease in summer precipitation and the increase of harsher weather extremes  will translate into a change in annual patterns of flood and drought (EEA, 2021); the “new normal” calls for solutions necessary to increase water resilience, ensuring water availability to preserve the ecological status of rivers, human health, and economic activities. 

In recent years, the Po basin has provided a taste of how the new climate normality in the region could look like, with more severe droughts alternated with floods and flash flood episodes. The area is vital to the Italian economy, supporting 40% of GDP, 55% of national electricity generation, and 40% of food production. Even under normal conditions, balancing water resources in the area is complex due to competing demands from agriculture, industry, energy, human consumption, and ecological preservation. 

Between 2021 and 2023 the Po basin experienced its worst drought in history: agriculture production decreased by 10%, for an estimated loss around 6 billion euros, energy production dropped by 37% with some thermoelectric plants shut down due to the lack of cooling water. Meanwhile floods and flash flood episodes have been increasing and foreseen to increase, causing fatalities and billions in damages. Between 2023 and 2024, the Emilia Romagna region experienced four devastating floods, causing 16 fatalities and damages for around 8 billion euros for the 2023 events only.

Under such a scenario, it becomes increasingly important to foster water resilience by enhancing our capacity to buffer flow extremes and sustainably retain water in the landscape. Nature-based solutions (NBS) may prove cost-effective by delivering benefits on multiple water and ecosystem processes. Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRM) in particular, are NBS that can help ‘keep the rain where it falls’ and comply with the hydraulic-hydrologic invariance (HHI) principles, which guides regional regulations. 

In this contribution, we present an analysis of how NBS may help cope with the expected hydrological extremes in the Po basin.  

We combined high-resolution data on flood risk, land economic value, and Natura 2000 to identify areas suitable for the creation of NBS. These areas could serve as a multipurpose, low-cost solution for storage, habitat restoration, and mitigating the effects of droughts and floods by storing water during high-flow events and releasing it during droughts. 

We used the LISFLOOD model (De Roo, Wesseling, and Van Deursen, 2000), configured as the European Flood Forecasting System (EFAS 5) at 1 arcminute resolution (~1.4 km), to reproduce past high/low flow events. This allowed us to estimate the extent to which high flow (flood) volumes could have been partly detained and stored to make water resources available during low flow (drought) periods.

We identify areas suitable for the implementation of NWRMs following economic, landscape-ecological and hydraulic criteria, and we simulate how these NBS placed on the suitable identified areas, could cater for the needs of water management that we expect under climate change in the coming decades.

How to cite: Moschini, F. and Pistocchi, A.: Living with drought and floods in the Anthropocene: a case study on nature-based adaptation  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4745, 2025.

EGU25-4755 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Spatial quantification framework for Water-Energy-Food security – Applied to South Africa 

Inge Ossentjuk, Menno Straatsma, Derek Karssenberg, and Floor van der Hilst

Water, energy and food (WEF) security is required for general human health and well-being, quality of life and livelihoods, and thus, ultimately, sustainable development [1, 2]. To improve WEF security, sustainable resource management is required, particularly in the context of climate change and its spatial variations. The WEF nexus is an approach to ensure this by accounting for and understanding the interrelations, synergies and trade-offs between WEF systems [1]. It is used to design appropriate solutions to WEF insecurity. For that, the state of WEF security must be assessed and the underlying causes to insecurity identified. Previous research conducting quantitative WEF nexus assessments has focused on i) creating national WEF indices [3, 4]; ii) technical assessments of infrastructural and biophysical aspects of WEF security [2, 5]; or iii) context-specific WEF security and linkages in case-study areas [5]. While these are valuable in providing macro-level understanding of WEF security and linkages, they do not account for socio-economic dimensions of security [2] or spatial heterogeneity within countries [3]. Sectoral approaches encompass a more comprehensive set of security aspects, such as the framework covering availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability (the so-called “four As”) originating in energy security literature [6], but these have not been applied to the nexus nor spatially explicitly.

Our objective is to develop a framework mapping WEF security along these four As and to apply the framework at a national level to identify hotspots of WEF insecurity within a country. We cover twelve domains of WEF security: each a combination of one of the four As and one of the three WEF resource systems. For each, household-level indicators were selected that can be quantified for countries at a high spatial resolution (e.g., municipality-level) by using data present in population and household surveys, supplemented with other open-source datasets (e.g., agricultural statistics, hydrological measurements, national utility prices, etc.). Resulting indicator scores for the twelve domains were subsequently combined and spatial patterns analysed to identify WEF insecurity hotspots (i.e., areas where there is concurrence of low scores across multiple domains).

The framework was applied to South Africa, a country with high spatial inequality. Data from national surveys were used to assess the spatial patterns in the WEF security domains across South Africa’s 257 municipalities. Preliminary results indicate concurrence of relatively low scores on several security domains, especially in municipalities in the east of Eastern Cape province, in KwaZulu-Natal, the north-eastern municipalities of Northern Cape and in parts of North West province. These areas are thus hotspots of multi-faceted WEF insecurity and should be prioritized for interventions. The framework proved suitable in highlighting sub-national patterns in WEF security and can thus be applied to other countries to quantify WEF security spatially explicitly.

References:

[1] Mabhaudhi et al. (2019). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162970

[2] Biggs et al. (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.08.002

[3] Nkiaka et al. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100655

[4] Nhamo et al. (2019). https://doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0359.v1

[5] Walker et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91223-5.00006-X

[6] Yao & Chang. (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.047

How to cite: Ossentjuk, I., Straatsma, M., Karssenberg, D., and van der Hilst, F.: Spatial quantification framework for Water-Energy-Food security – Applied to South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4755, 2025.

EGU25-5651 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Does international trade help us deal with water scarcity problems? 

Han Su, Oleksandr Mialyk, Rick J. Hogeboom, and Markus Berger

Countries with limited water resources are believed to be able to deal with water scarcity problems with the help of international trade. Instead of producing water-intensive products by themselves, importing water-intensive products can increase their access to global water resources and their water footprint per capita. Water embodied in international trade is called virtual water flows. However, recent studies show that international virtual water flows are composed of a significant amount of scarce water as well. Countries may face additional water scarcity problems because of this. It remains unclear whether or not the countries actually have more or less water scarcity problems due to international trade. We conducted a time series analysis for each country considering the scarce water in their water footprint from 1990 to 2019. The scarce water includes not only the scarce water consumed within the country but also the scarce water imported via international trade. We used a crop model, hydrological model, and input-output analysis to estimate water consumption, water scarcity, and virtual water flows. Our results advance our understanding of the dynamic relationship between international trade and water scarcity.

How to cite: Su, H., Mialyk, O., J. Hogeboom, R., and Berger, M.: Does international trade help us deal with water scarcity problems?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5651, 2025.

EGU25-6453 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Scenario-Based Exploration of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin 

Elham Sedighi, Brian Fath, Ali Kharrazi, and Elena Rovenskaya

Sustainable management of the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus presents a significant challenge, especially in transboundary ecosystems such as river basins, where competing national interests often intersect with the supply and demand of essential resources. The Tigris-Euphrates River (TigER) basin, a vital lifeline for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, exemplifies these challenges. Increasing water demand, agricultural expansion, and energy needs—intensified by climate change and geopolitical tensions—place unprecedented pressure on this critical transboundary system, threatening regional sustainability and development. Using an integrated scenario-based approach to address future challenges and opportunities, this study investigates the interconnections between water, food, and energy systems in the TigER basin. A suite of plausible and consistent scenarios was developed based on a systematic literature review of the WEF nexus studies in the TigER basin, capturing critical uncertainties and drivers such as population growth, water rights, large-scale dam construction, shifting water availability, energy policies, and agricultural practices. This review synthesised insights from existing research at regional and basin-wide scales, highlighting key trends and challenges in resource management across the four riparian countries. Preliminary findings underscore the potential of scenario-based approaches to highlight strategies addressing water security under various future conditions. These scenarios reveal how shifts in water availability could cascade through the food and energy sectors, emphasizing the necessity of coordinated responses to safeguard water access. They demonstrate the importance of exploring adaptive policies and governance mechanisms that can respond to uncertain future conditions while fostering resilience across the TigER basin's interconnected systems. This research addresses the interdependencies within the water-food-energy nexus, offering actionable insights for sustainable management in transboundary river basins. By developing future scenarios, it provides a foundation for adaptive governance and policy interventions to balance competing demands across sectors. These contributions enhance the understanding of nexus interconnections and offer a roadmap for strengthening system resilience in the face of global change.

How to cite: Sedighi, E., Fath, B., Kharrazi, A., and Rovenskaya, E.: Scenario-Based Exploration of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6453, 2025.

Increasing world population, economic development, and agricultural irrigation are leading to a steadily rising per capita demand for water. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity and affects the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Irrigation and improved water management practices can help mitigate climate change impacts by optimizing water use. However, these practices can also impact the local and regional climate. For instance, large-scale irrigation changes humidity and can influence circulation patterns. Therefore, a coupled socio-hydrological and climate modeling system is required to thoroughly investigate the complex interplay between climatic and socio-economic changes.

To improve the analysis of water-climate interactions, we are developing climate CWatM (C-CWatM) - a flexible modelling tool that can be coupled to (regional) climate modelling systems. Based on the socio-hydrological model CWatM, the new tool enables the simulation of hydrological quantities (e.g., discharge), sectoral water use, groundwater, and water reservoirs as part of climate model simulations. C-CWatM is designed as a standalone Python model that can be integrated into various climate modelling systems as it operates on standard climate and land surface variables.

Here, we present first results of combined simulations of C-CWatM and the regional climate model REMO in Europe. While a one-way coupling can provide water use estimates as part of the climate model output, full coupling offers the transfer of water use information to the climate model. For example, the water amount available for irrigation can be used to constrain existing irrigation routines in REMO, enabling more realistic simulation of the effects of extensive irrigation on local and regional climate processes. These analyses offer valuable insights for future water management strategies and climate change adaptation.

How to cite: Schmitt, A. and Greve, P.: Integrating socio-hydrological and climate models for improved water management under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6605, 2025.

The increasing demands for food and renewable energy are placing unprecedented pressure on water and land resources, a challenge further exacerbated by climate-induced declines in surface water availability. Globally widespread cropland abandonment presents a unique opportunity for strategic, multi-benefit land repurposing to enhance sustainable water, food, and energy management. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) offers a promising strategy to augment groundwater supplies for agriculture and ecosystems, while water-efficient variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV), offers potential to reduce surface water use for hydropower, allowing more water allocation for irrigation and MAR. Despite these promising synergies, the large-scale feasibility and socio-economic value of integrating MAR and VRE development on abandoned cropland remain unclear. In this study, we develop a multi-scale spatial optimization framework to identify priority locations for MAR and VRE expansion, aiming to enhance water, food, and energy security, particularly during droughts. We evaluate the benefits and trade-offs of repurposing global abandoned cropland under various strategies (i.e., MAR only, VRE only, and integrated MAR-VRE) across different climate conditions and spatial scales (local, regional, and global). Our findings highlight that multi-objective spatial optimization and cross-scale coordination are crucial for maximizing synergies and minimizing conflicts between MAR and VRE development. Our study reveals the untapped potential of abandoned cropland for water and energy expansion and proposes a scalable framework to support multi-benefit land management strategies that boost water-food-energy sustainability.

How to cite: Li, M. and He, X.: Strategic Repurposing of Abandoned Cropland for Aquifer Recharge and Renewable Energy Boosts Water-Food-Energy Sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6824, 2025.

EGU25-7249 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Towards real-time operation of interconnected water-energy systems 

Stefano Galelli, Hisham Eldardiry, and Phumthep Bunnak

The role of hydropower generation in power grid operations is set to expand with the increasing integration of variable renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Thus, understanding how hydropower dispatch decisions vary under evolving hydrologic and electricity demand conditions is essential for effective management of water and energy resources. However, modeling hydropower dispatch decisions is challenging because such decisions are influenced by the state of the hydrological and electrical systems in which dams operate. Traditional modeling approaches based on soft coupling are ill-suited to capture these complex dynamics—as well as their feedback mechanisms—because they implement one-way information flow from one model to another. In this study, we introduce a novel model coupling framework that hard-couples a multi-reservoir system model (VIC-Res) with a power system model (PowNet), and thus captures operational decisions based on the states of both systems. Specifically, VIC-Res accounts for the representation and optimization of hydropower reservoirs, while PowNet simulates the unit commitment and economic dispatch of large-scale power systems. The coupler acts as the model orchestrator, managing the sequential exchange of information between models at each time step and checking the convergence of hydropower generated by VIC-Res and PowNet to advance to the next time step. The framework is tested on the Lao PDR-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP), which largely relies on the hydropower produced by the Mekong and Chao Phraya river basins. Our modeling effort involves four instances of PowNet (one for each power grid) and two of VIC-Res (one for each basin). Over a 10-year simulation horizon, we show that accounting for the state of both hydrological and electrical systems when dispatching hydopower is key to improve the overall system performance, which we measure in terms of grid operating costs and CO2 emissions.

How to cite: Galelli, S., Eldardiry, H., and Bunnak, P.: Towards real-time operation of interconnected water-energy systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7249, 2025.

Transboundary aquifers (TBAs) are crucial for global food production, supporting about a quarter of the world’s irrigated cropland. However, they remain inadequately regulated, with fewer than 10 international treaties addressing shared groundwater. This lack of regulation raises concerns about potential international tensions stemming from water competition and the premature depletion of these vital resources.

Analyzing data from 170,000 wells, we found that while TBAs are not significantly more overexploited than non-transboundary aquifers, wells located near international borders exhibit higher depletion rates. This pattern aligns with increased competition driven by transboundary interactions. New spatial data on irrigated cropland reveals that competition is concentrated in about half of the country pairs sharing an aquifer, where irrigated cropland is situated close enough to borders to cause cross-border groundwater drawdown. In most of these cases, the TBA extent is small and contributes only a minor portion of national irrigation, which raises the potential for negotiated management. However, about 20% of the cases represent high-priority hotspots due to strong transboundary interactions and the strategic importance of the aquifer, which overlays a substantial portion of both countries’ irrigated cropland. Implementing zone-based pumping restrictions could alleviate competitive pressures in these areas, making them key targets to consider for ongoing efforts to support transboundary groundwater cooperation.

How to cite: Muller, M. F.: Groundwater Depletion and water competition in transboundary aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9316, 2025.

EGU25-12858 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Large-scale integrated hydrological modelling for hydroelectric generation in the Italian Alpine Region 

Soroush Zarghami Dastjerdi, Diego Avesani, Andrea Galletti, and Bruno Majone

Storage hydropower systems are pillars in clean energy production, especially in mountainous regions and higher altitudes where water availability is abundant. With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, which are highly weather-dependent and often misaligned with energy demand, the role of hydropower reservoirs, which conversely can act as water batteries, is becoming more significant.

Modelling these systems within hydrological frameworks provides reliable tools for testing energy and water management policies. However, the missing knowledge of characteristics and regulation rules hampers the implementation of accurate human system modules into the modelling frameworks, especially over larger spatial domains.

As a case study, we select the Italian Alpine Region (IAR), characterised by a complex mountainous topography and significantly altered by the presence of human systems. This area covers Italy's entire northern mountain chain and houses over 300 large hydropower systems (i.e., with installed power above 3MW), representing up to 75% of all installed hydropower systems in Italy.

In this context, the study aims to simulate the hydroelectric system over IAR by introducing a new comprehensive inventory of hydropower-related infrastructures tailored to model the interaction between natural and human systems. In addition, we introduced a dynamic operating rule for the storage reservoirs, allowing us to simulate both storage and pumped-storage hydropower systems.

This modeling framework rule has been implemented in HYPERstreamHS, a hydrological model capable of simultaneously simulating hydropower production and assessing river network flow alteration. Our results show that the modelling framework, using accurate and detailed representations of hydropower systems and their operations within a hydrological model, not only robustly simulates hydroelectric systems behavior in IAR but also improves streamflow simulation.

How to cite: Zarghami Dastjerdi, S., Avesani, D., Galletti, A., and Majone, B.: Large-scale integrated hydrological modelling for hydroelectric generation in the Italian Alpine Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12858, 2025.

EGU25-13079 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Artificial intelligence for water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus management under climate change: insights and implications 

Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Marcos Roberto Benso, Gautamee Baviskar, Gabriel Marinho e Silva, Eduardo Mário Mendiondo, and Maarten S. Krol

Climate change is intensifying water supply challenges, leading to extreme events that disrupt the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus. Addressing these interconnected issues requires sustainable pathways and innovative solutions, which require multidimensional data collection. Given the complexity of climate-induced challenges, such as droughts and floods, a comprehensive approach is essential to ensure sustainable water management solutions. Artificial Intelligence (AI) presents a powerful tool for analyzing vast datasets and understanding the complex interrelationships among these sectors. Despite the recent advances in the field of AI applied to water resources management, the methods focused on the WEFE nexus have been poorly understood. Thus, this research systematically reviews AI methodologies applicable to water resources management by structuring research questions, defining search terms, and applying rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria to ensure relevant document selection. A multi-step screening process, guided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework, was applied to publications from 2012 to 2021. This process resulted in the selection of 83 original papers, which were categorized into four distinct topics: water (37 papers), energy (24 papers), food (5 papers), and ecosystems (17 papers)  seeking to answer the following research question: how can AI enhance decision-making processes for water security in different sectors? Preliminary results indicate that effective AI integration can significantly reduce economic losses in critical sectors, boost productivity, and foster sustainable societal development. For example, AI-driven models can improve water demand forecasting, optimizing energy usage in irrigation, and supporting the design of resilient food production systems. Climate challenges, like extreme weather unpredictability and data scarcity, complicate water management. However, AI offers opportunities by analyzing complex datasets to predict scenarios and enhance decision-making. Furthermore, these technologies provide valuable insights for ecosystem preservation by monitoring biodiversity and assessing environmental impacts, enabling more sustainable and proactive strategies. The findings underscore the potential of AI to bridge gaps in data availability for maintaining the activities in each sector of the nexus and enhance real-time decision-making. They also highlight the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and capacity building to maximize AI's benefits. These insights offer a pathway to enhanced resilience, adaptive capacity, and long-term sustainability in WEFE management under changing climate conditions, which is in accordance with Sustainable Development Goals 6 (water), 7 (energy) and 13 (climate action). 

Keywords: WEFE nexus (Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem); Artificial Intelligence (AI); Water security; Climate change adaptation; Sustainable development.

How to cite: Silva, P. G. C. D., Benso, M. R., Baviskar, G., Silva, G. M. E., Mendiondo, E. M., and Krol, M. S.: Artificial intelligence for water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus management under climate change: insights and implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13079, 2025.

EGU25-13905 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Elucidating hydropower impacts on fish biodiversity across African rivers 

Matteo Giuliani, Silvia Capponi, Anna Pelicci, Valentina Bonato, Teresa Bonserio, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Valerio Barbarossa, Aafke Schipper, Marc Bierkens, and Andrea Castelletti

Despite relevant environmental, social, and financial risks, developing countries are increasingly pursuing hydropower development, including 300 new hydropower projects planned in Africa for a total of around 100 GW of new installed capacity. African rivers, however, are among the most biodiverse ecosystems. Their unique biodiversity might be in peril as hydropower projects are generally designed according to techno-economic considerations, with limited consideration of environmental aspects.

In this work, we develop an integrated modeling framework to explore synergies and trade-offs associated with alternative hydropower development strategies in Africa. Specifically, we first investigate alternative options for hydropower development through the soft-link of a surface water quality model (i.e. DYNQUAL) with an energy system planning model (i.e. OSeMOSYS-TEMBA). The former simulates river discharge and water temperature at a 5-arcminutes resolution across the African continent; the latter identifies least-cost power capacity expansion plans where hydropower generation is conditioned on the simulated water availability at each power plant site. Then, we combine the DYNQUAL model simulations incorporating the selected hydropower projects to estimate the regulated dynamics of river discharge and temperature with the GLOBIO-Species model, which allows assessing the impacts on African freshwater fish biodiversity. The analysis is conducted for historical as well as projected socio-economic and climate conditions using a multi-model ensemble that includes different combinations of Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways.

Preliminary results show that fish biodiversity has been already impacted by the existing hydropower infrastructures. Over the next decades, these negative impacts will be amplified. Most of these impacts can be attributed to the increasing water temperature associated with climate change, while the construction of additional hydropower plants appears less important.

How to cite: Giuliani, M., Capponi, S., Pelicci, A., Bonato, V., Bonserio, T., Sutanudjaja, E., Barbarossa, V., Schipper, A., Bierkens, M., and Castelletti, A.: Elucidating hydropower impacts on fish biodiversity across African rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13905, 2025.

EGU25-14156 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Quantifying Energy Water Footprints for Unified Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus 

Min Ji Kim, Ji Eun Kim, and Tae-Woong Kim

Water footprint assessment is a critical tool for understanding the sustainability of energy production within the water-energy-food nexus. This study presents a detailed methodology for quantifying the water footprint of various energy sources, including coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy systems such as solar, hydropower, and bioenergy. The methodology incorporates water usage across all stages of energy production: extraction, processing, and power generation. Additionally, it emphasizes the need to unify the measurement units across the water, energy, and food sectors by leveraging the water footprint concept, enabling a more integrated analysis of the nexus model.

Key factors considered in this study include water demand per unit of energy (e.g., m³/GJ), type of cooling technology (open-loop, closed-loop, and dry cooling), regional water stress indices, and energy conversion efficiencies. A life-cycle assessment (LCA) framework is adopted to evaluate the environmental impact of each energy source, with adjustments made for region-specific water availability and climatic conditions. While much evaluation of water footprints has been carried out in water and food sectors, energy-related water footprint studies are still limited.

This study highlights the potential for reducing water consumption and improving resource efficiency in energy production through systematical calculations and comparison of water footprints across sectors. The unified water footprint metric facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the interdependencies within the water-energy-food nexus, allowing for the identification of trade-offs and synergies. This approach also provides policymakers and resource managers with critical data to prioritize sustainable strategies for energy production and resource allocation, particularly in water-stressed regions. The findings underscore the importance of integrating water footprint data into nexus modeling and decision-making processes to ensure a balanced and sustainable approach to resource management in the face of growing global demand.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-RS-2023-00280330).

How to cite: Kim, M. J., Kim, J. E., and Kim, T.-W.: Quantifying Energy Water Footprints for Unified Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14156, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14156, 2025.

Efficient water management in irrigated agriculture is crucial for sustaining food production and addressing water scarcity in semi-arid basins. In the Tapi basin, India, an imbalance between water withdrawals and agricultural water demand (AWD) has led to constant deficits and severe water scarcity. Using the SPHY-WA framework, this study quantified water withdrawals, consumed water, and water scarcity for irrigated croplands from 2003 to 2020. Average agricultural withdrawals were 12.0 BCM/year, primarily sourced from groundwater (83%), while AWD was estimated at 39.0 BCM/year, resulting in an average water deficit of 26.0 BCM/year. Consumed water averaged 8.0 BCM/year, with 4.0 BCM/year contributing to return flows. The Water Scarcity Index (WSI) analysis revealed severe to extreme water scarcity (WSI > 1) across the basin, with critical hotspots in Nashik, Jalgaon, Buldana, Aurangabad, and Dhule districts. Temporal trends showed declining withdrawals and stable demand, widening the supply-demand gap, particularly during dry years. Inefficient irrigation, excessive blue water evapotranspiration, and extensive cropland acreage were identified as key contributors to water scarcity. This study underscores the need for improving irrigation efficiency and optimizing water use in agriculture. The integration of WSI into the SPHY-WA framework enhances spatiotemporal analysis, providing actionable insights for sustainable water resource management in water-stressed regions.

How to cite: Patle, P. and Sharma, A.: Quantifying Agricultural Water Scarcity and Demand-Supply Dynamics in the Tapi Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14743, 2025.

EGU25-15211 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.1

Mountain Ecosystem Services as a Framework for Water-Energy-Food Nexus Management: Insights from the Orco Valley, Piedmont 

Maria Elena Alfano, Laura Savoldi, and Davide Poggi

Mountain ecosystems play an essential role in human well-being, providing resources, regulating and maintaining environmental processes, as well as offering cultural and recreational benefits. Different studies have assessed Mountain Ecosystem Services (MESs) through both qualitative and quantitative methods. However, significant gaps remain, particularly in understanding the trade-offs and synergies among MESs and their influence on the demand and supply dynamics of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources.

This study focuses on the ecosystem services of the Orco Valley in Piedmont, Italy, combining biophysical, economic, and sociocultural dimensions. The primary MESs provided by the watershed were classified following the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) framework. Their quantification was achieved through a combination of regional datasets and modeling with the INVEST tool, where applicable. These MESs were subsequently assigned an economic value using the Total Economic Value (TEV) framework. Spatial representation and analysis were conducted using GIS, while statistical methods were employed to explore the interconnections and interactions among the various services

Our findings underscore the potential of MESs as a framework to quantify WEF interconnections and resource dynamics in mountain watersheds. Scenario analyses reveal strategies to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs among WEF resources, with economic feasibility assessments providing actionable guidance. For instance, while hydropower production supports energy supply, it often reduces in-stream water availability, impacting biodiversity and ecological balance. Similarly, water releases optimized for energy generation can conflict with downstream agricultural demands.

By analyzing the impacts of anthropogenic factors on MESs, the study aims to provide practical insights for policy and decision-making, focusing on how MESs can contribute to addressing the intricate linkages within WEF systems and advancing sustainable management of mountain watershed resources.

How to cite: Alfano, M. E., Savoldi, L., and Poggi, D.: Mountain Ecosystem Services as a Framework for Water-Energy-Food Nexus Management: Insights from the Orco Valley, Piedmont, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15211, 2025.

EGU25-15699 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Exploring global interdependencies from the hydrological cycle to virtual water flows through a network analysis 

Simon Felix Fahrländer, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Dieter Gerten, Marta Tuninetti, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Arie Staal, Johan Rockström, and Nico Wunderling

Freshwater is fundamental to Earth system processes, yet its global dynamics are often overlooked in water governance. With half of all terrestrial precipitation originating from land evaporation, the global interdependencies of atmospheric moisture flows remain underrepresented in policies addressing water security and climate adaptation. In particular, its impacts on global supply chains have not been assessed so far. Therefore, we here assess the interactions between the global network of atmospheric water with the international trade network, which we quantify by virtual water trade embedded in agricultural commodities. We conceptualise country-scale dependencies across three dimensions: 

i) Geopolitical, examining how countries source and receive water through interconnected moisture networks;

ii) Physical, relating water scarcity and hydrological stress to network characteristics;

iii) Virtual, revealing dependencies and potential impacts from atmospheric moisture transport to virtual water flows.

In this work, we build on a previous dataset of bilateral atmospheric moisture flows, which has been reconciled to close the water balance, as well as an established virtual water trade network to construct global networks that quantify countries' roles and vulnerabilities in the hydrological cycle through network measures. Preliminary findings highlight key hubs and dependencies within these coupled networks, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture flows underpin both regional water security and global water governance. Our study advances the understanding of the interconnectedness of atmospheric and virtual water flows, linking physical and economic water systems to support sustainable water resource management globally.

How to cite: Fahrländer, S. F., Andersen, L. S., Gerten, D., Tuninetti, M., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Staal, A., Rockström, J., and Wunderling, N.: Exploring global interdependencies from the hydrological cycle to virtual water flows through a network analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15699, 2025.

EGU25-15850 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Assessment of knowledge gaps in implementing Water-Energy-Climate Nexus in the Mekong Basin 

Thanapon Piman, Vo Quoc Thanh, and Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa

The Mekong Basin faces significant challenges in integrated management of the water-energy nexus amidst the growing pressures of climate change. Rapid urbanization and industrial growth are escalating the demand for energy and water for both food production and industrial use. Hydropower development, a key energy source in the region, further complicates water flow and threatens ecosystem health. Climate change impacts, including erratic rainfall patterns, droughts, and flooding, exacerbate the stability of both water and energy systems. While research on the Water-Food-Energy (WFE) nexus has expanded in the past decade to better understand the interconnections across sectors and borders, the academic discourse surrounding the Water-Energy-Climate (WEC) nexus remains limited. This study assesses the knowledge gaps in implementing the WEC nexus in the Mekong Basin through a systematic review. A total of 3,399 manuscripts were identified from databases such as PubMed, IEEE, IWA Publishing, SpringerLink, ProQuest, and ScienceDirect, published between 2012 and 2024. Out of these, 60 manuscripts were included in the analysis, along with two relevant reports from the Mekong River Commission. The analysis reveals a steady increase in publications, with the highest number in 2021, indicating growing scholarly interest in the interlinkages between water, energy, and climate systems. The study identifies key knowledge gaps, including governance-related, technological and engineering challenges, ecosystem and nature-based solutions, and issues related to Gender Equality, Disability, and Social Inclusion (GEDSI). A major finding is the lack of coordinated and integrated planning across the Mekong countries, which hinders effective management of the WEC nexus. Insufficient technologies to support fish migration and maintain environmental flows threaten downstream ecosystems vital to local communities. Moreover, addressing climate change while optimizing water and energy use requires deeper exploration of comprehensive solutions. Socio-cultural norms also limit women’s participation in leadership and technical roles within water, energy, and climate management. Without applying a gender-inclusive approach, nexus governance risks deepening existing inequalities. The study concludes that addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced regional collaboration, improved governance and integrated policy frameworks, strengthened capacity-building efforts, better data-sharing mechanisms, advanced WEC modeling capabilities, and a more holistic approach to policy-making aligned with the sustainable development goals of the Mekong countries.

How to cite: Piman, T., Thanh, V. Q., and Krittasudthacheewa, C.: Assessment of knowledge gaps in implementing Water-Energy-Climate Nexus in the Mekong Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15850, 2025.

EGU25-16217 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Modelling Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus Trade-offs and Synergies in a meso-scale watershed in the European Alps 

Enrico Lucca, Giulio Castelli, Jochen Wenninger, Lorenzo Villani, Janez Sušnik, Sara Masia, and Elena Bresci

Despite being historically water-abundant, many mountain regions of the world are forced to adapt to a drier and hotter climate. Adaptation in the water sector calls for a revision of policies, the introduction of new regulations, and changing water allocation priorities, which in turn rely on a sound understanding of water supply-demand balance. In investigating water allocation issues, it is paramount to consider the interconnectedness of water-dependent sectors, i.e. water supply, energy, food, and ecosystems (the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems – WEFE - Nexus), so that trade-offs between sectoral objectives are minimised and synergies built. In this study, we assess the magnitude and seasonality of trade-offs and synergies between hydropower production, irrigation, and ecological flows for the Orco watershed, a mountainous sub-basin of the Po River in Northern Italy. A water resources management model is built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) software tool and integrating simulation of hydrological processes with a priority-based, cross-sectoral allocation model. The model is used to perform an ex-post assessment of water management strategies adopted in the period 2011-2022, considering thus both wet and dry years conditions, including the extreme drought in summer 2022. Baseline conditions of water allocation across sectors are informed by a review of water policies and interviews with local stakeholders, while alternative management scenarios are built based on assigning different priorities to hydropower production and irrigation, and by increasing ecological flow requirements. The impact of alternative water management strategies on meeting sectoral water demands is thus simulated to reveal trade-offs across sectors (e.g., hydropower-irrigation, irrigation-ecological flows) and between agricultural upstream and downstream water users. Results show the Orco watershed faced recurrent water scarcity conditions in the simulated period with the most downstream irrigation consortium having experienced a supply deficit in most years. Trade-offs between hydropower and irrigation typically occur in late July and August when agricultural water demands exceed reservoirs’ outflow needed for hydropower production. If irrigation needs had been prioritised over hydropower production in the management of reservoirs, our study indicates that the supply deficits experienced by irrigation consortia would have been significantly lowered in the period 2011-2021, leading, however, to a moderate loss of hydropower production in autumn and winter. In 2022, the benefits gained from a different operation of reservoirs would have been significantly smaller due to the large supply deficit already manifested at the start of the irrigation season (April - May) and very low levels in reservoirs throughout the 2022 hydrological year. Finally, the upstream positioning of agricultural water users is shown to have a drastic impact on the frequency and magnitude of supply deficits faced by irrigation consortia and on the impact of stricter ecological flow requirements on agricultural water withdrawals. Through the modelling of WEFE Nexus trade-offs and synergies we provide evidence that can help public authorities and water users further assess the impact of regulatory and infrastructural developments in mountainous watersheds. 

How to cite: Lucca, E., Castelli, G., Wenninger, J., Villani, L., Sušnik, J., Masia, S., and Bresci, E.: Modelling Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus Trade-offs and Synergies in a meso-scale watershed in the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16217, 2025.

Recent climate changes, including rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, pose a significant threat to global water, food, and energy security. In particular, the acceleration of global warming has resulted in water scarcity, reduced crop yields, and unstable energy supplies, impacting not only human livelihoods but also various industries. Although water, energy, and food have traditionally been managed independently, they are closely interconnected, and changes in one sector can directly influence the others.

It is vital to manage the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus in an integrated manner and anticipate potential resource shortages in advance. In this context, introducing the concept of a water footprint enables the development of efficient, water-centric management strategies that systematically measure and manage water usage across energy and food production.

This study applies a water footprint approach to factors related to water, energy, and food, calculates the Water Stress Index (WSI), Energy Stress Index (ESI), and Food Stress Index (FSI), thereby assessing each resource’s vulnerability. Specifically, an Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)-based WEF nexus model was developed for Chungcheongnam-do in South Korea to evaluate nexus interactions using historical observation data. Furthermore, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were employed to project resource fluctuations under future climate change.

To validate the model, a Walk-Forward Validation Fold method was used, yielding an R² of 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.67—indicating satisfactory predictive accuracy. By setting 2030 as the target year, the model showed that WSI could range from -168% to +16%, ESI from -690% to +69%, and FSI was projected to decrease by -113% to -87%. Notably, reduced precipitation was identified as having a significant impact on energy production, underscoring the need for strategies to ensure a stable energy supply.

 

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-RS-2023-00280330).

How to cite: Kim, J., Kim, M., and Kim, T.: Development of Long Short-Term Memory-Based Water-Energy-Food Nexus for Assessing Resources vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16341, 2025.

EGU25-16542 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Keeping Nitrogen Use in China within the Planetary Boundary Using a Spatially Explicit Approach 

Xi Chen, Maryna Strokal, Michelle van Vliet, Ling Liu, Zhaohai Bai, Lin Ma, and Carolien Kroeze

Nitrogen (N) supports food production, but its excess causes water pollution. We lack understanding of the boundary of N for water quality while considering complex relationships between N inputs and instream N-concentrations. Our knowledge is limited in regional reduction targets to secure food production. Here we aim to derive a spatially-explicit boundary of N inputs to rivers for surface water quality using a bottom-up approach, and to explore ways to meet the derived N boundary while considering the associated impacts on both surface water quality and food production in China. We modified a multi-scale nutrient modelling system simulating around 6.5 Tg of N inputs to rivers that are allowed for whole of China in 2012. Maximum allowed N inputs to rivers are higher for intensive food production regions and lower for highly urbanized regions. When fertilizer and manure use is reduced, 45-76% of the streams could meet the N water quality threshold under different scenarios. A comparison of ‘water quality first’ and ‘food production first’ scenarios indicates that trade-offs between water quality and food production exist in 2-8% of the streams, which may put 7-28% of crop production at stake. Finally, we modelled the surface water quality of N for 2050 under climate change and explored the associated  management scenarios. The results indicate that N pollution in surface water could be avoided in China while ensuring food security by spatial planning of livestock production combined with state-of-art N management technologies. Clearly,  our insights could support region-specific policies for improving water quality.

How to cite: Chen, X., Strokal, M., van Vliet, M., Liu, L., Bai, Z., Ma, L., and Kroeze, C.: Keeping Nitrogen Use in China within the Planetary Boundary Using a Spatially Explicit Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16542, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16542, 2025.

This paper analyses the impacts of a water-for-energy swap agreement that has been negotiated between Israel and Jordan in recent years, on the Israeli economy. According to the agreement Israel will supply 200 million m³ of desalinated water to Jordan in exchange for electricity to be produced in a new 600-megawatt solar power plant to be built in Jordan (Mansour & Reiffenstuel, 2022).

Given the nexus character of water and energy, which are strongly interlinked with other parts of the economy, we investigate the implications of this agreement using an economy-wide simulation model. Specifically, a water-focused computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is calibrated to a recent, detailed social accounting matrix for Israel, which includes 46 economic sectors, 43 production factors, and 10 household types differentiated according to income level and ethnic group. The model includes a detailed depiction of water supply and demand, considering alternative water sources, such as desalination and reclamation of wastewater, with differing cost structures. To capture price discrimination and other water-related policies applied by the entities investigated, the model includes different water-related taxation instruments and water satellite accounts which allows for keeping track of water quantities.

It is expected that Israel will gain from the additional electricity provided, which reduces production costs of energy-intensive sectors, including desalination, a major contributor to municipal water supply. Additionally, there are also gains outside the pure economic modeling: electricity production in the region will become greener and the increased interdependency between the two states will contribute to stabilizing relations and thus peace in the region. Therefore, this agreement can earn a triple dividend covering all aspects of the sustainability triangle.

Source

Mansour, H., & Reiffenstuel, A. (2022). KAS Studies on Jordan Jordan Office The Jordan, Israel, and UAE Water-for-energy Deal: Potential and Pitfalls of Energy and Water Sharing-Agreements in the Middle East, https://www.kas.de/en/web/jordanien/single-title/-/content/the-jordan-israel-and-uae-water-for-energy-deal.

How to cite: Luckmann, J.: The Water-for-Energy Swap between Jordan and Israel - An economy-wide analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16698, 2025.

EGU25-16755 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Assessment of climate change impacts on the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) using hydroeconomic and ecological modelling, and continental-scale economic projections 

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Hector Macian-Sorribes, David de León Pérez, Juan Manuel Carricondo-Anton, Francisco Martinez-Capel, Alberto Garcia-Prats, and Felix Frances-Garcia

In spite of the well-known interconnections found between water, energy, food and ecosystems, an integrated management of such components is seldom employed. On the contrary, several institutions at different levels (national, regional, local) take care of each component, which implies the existence of different (sometimes even opposite) interests that hinder a proper management of the WEFE nexus. Furthermore, drivers at multiple scales (e.g., energy prices, ecosystem protection standards) must be considered to enable a thorough WEFE evaluation. Hydroeconomic modelling can accommodate multi-level economic information while doing justice to the modelling detail required at the river basin scale.

This contribution combines hydroeconomic modelling, ecological (native fish habitat) modelling and continental economic projections to enable a comprehensive WEFE evaluation in the Jucar River Basin (Spain). This basin is characterized by intensive water use in agriculture, the existence of multiannual droughts, and a strong influence of European markets on agricultural goods. The Jucar river system is represented by a hydroeconomic simulation model that considers reservoirs and aquifers, urban and agricultural demands, hydropower plants, native fish habitat in selected fish streams and the water balance of the Albufera wetland, one of the most iconic water-dependent ecosystems in Spain. Climate projections from CMIP6 are used. These climate scenarios are transformed into hydrological projections using the fully distributed 250-m resolution TETIS eco-hydrological model. Urban demands are modelled using demand curves derived employing the point expansion method. Agricultural demands are addressed through the FAO33 methodology using the current crop mosaic and future crop water needs estimated using the AQUACROP model (herbaceous) and the FAO56 method combined with soil water balance modelling (citrus), both forced by the CMIP6 climate projections but assuming fixed CO2 concentrations. Native fish habitat is estimated using hydraulic models and fish preference curves, transformed into streamflow – habitat (WUA) curves for selected streams. Crop and energy prices were obtained from the continental CAPRI and PRIMES models, respectively.

Our results show that surface water resources would decrease in the future, while crop water needs will increase. Nonetheless, the Jucar river system would hold a satisfactory performance level for climate projections referred to the SSP1_2.6 scenario. However, challenges in agricultural benefits and surface water use could arise in the SSP3_7.0 scenario, while the most pessimistic SSP5_8.5 scenario depicts a situation in which the system is heavily challenged and shows negative impacts for the whole WEFE nexus components. It can be concluded that the system’s sustainability would only be likely if the 2oC degree limit set by the Paris Agreement holds (SSP1_2.6). Otherwise, adaptation options would be required to guarantee sustainable WEFE management.

Acknowledgements: This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the GoNEXUS project (grant agreement No 101003722)

How to cite: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Macian-Sorribes, H., de León Pérez, D., Carricondo-Anton, J. M., Martinez-Capel, F., Garcia-Prats, A., and Frances-Garcia, F.: Assessment of climate change impacts on the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in the Jucar River Basin (Spain) using hydroeconomic and ecological modelling, and continental-scale economic projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16755, 2025.

This study addresses the pressing need for sustainable energy infrastructure in the Eastern Nile Basin region, focusing on the integration of Floating Solar Photovoltaics (FPVs) in long-term energy planning. FPVs offer advantages over land-based photovoltaics, such as reducing capital costs by utilizing existing infrastructure at hydropower dams and reducing evaporation. Given the region's growing population and high competition for water, our research introduces a novel framework that explores the dual benefits of water conservation and reduced land use, alongside policy targets for lowering carbon emissions through increased integration of renewables in the power mix.

The study advances existing models by incorporating FPV technology into the OSeMOSYS tool, an open-source model for optimizing national energy generation mixes. Our research presents a spatially explicit framework for long-term  energy system planning that integrates land use and water conservation metrics at reservoirs within the energy planning process. The role of FPVs in the region’s energy pathways is evaluated by endogenizing the costs of CO2 emissions and land use, while considering water savings. Our analysis develops and implements a new methodology for land-use accounting and pricing, and assesses the potential of FPVs to reduce evaporation across a network of hydropower reservoirs. This expanded modeling framework is then utilized to analyze various scenarios, including different hydrological regimes under CMIP climate change projections and policy measures such as the introduction of taxes on carbon emissions and land-use, and regional electricity trade links.

Results indicate that FPVs can cost-effectively provide up to 3% of the region's electricity generation by 2065, saving up to 376 million cubic meters of water annually. Scenarios introducing carbon and land-use taxes increase FPV's share in the power generation mix to 4.5% and enable earlier FPV deployment. While climate impacts minimally affect FPV's role, the technology slightly reduces CO2 emissions (0.4%) and land use (1.6%) in the baseline scenario without taxes. A carbon tax alone reduces emissions by 11-23% but raises land use by up to 8% due to increased wind, hydro, and solar deployment. Land tax alone reduces land use by 5-8% with minimal impact on emissions. However, combining land and carbon taxes reduces emissions (by 12% to 22%) and land use (a decrease of 1.6% or an increase of 1.2%). The optimal locations for FPV deployment are identified as Lake Nasser (2.1 GW), Renaissance Dam (6.4 GW), and Merowe Dam (1.2 GW), leveraging existing hydropower infrastructure. These findings demonstrate that FPVs represent a promising adaptation strategy for energy planning offering multiple co-benefits including reduced water evaporation, efficient land use, and emissions mitigation, particularly when supported by appropriate environmental pricing policies.

How to cite: Abraham, E. and Pieruzzi, A.: Integrating Floating Photovoltaics in Long-term Energy Planning of Eastern Nile Basin Countries: Synergies Between Water Conservation, Land Use, and Emissions Reduction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17072, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17072, 2025.

EGU25-18049 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus approach for holistic resource assessment in Sardinia region 

Muhammad Faizan Aslam, Sara Masia, Marta Debolini, Janez Susnik, Andrea Borgo, Simone Mereu, and Antonio Trabucco

The sustainable management of water, energy, food, and ecosystems sectors is fundamental for ensuring societal well-being, economic stability, and environmental integrity. Sardinia is a Mediterranean region with diverse socioeconomic and landscape conditions, currently facing escalating challenges in managing the intertwined system between Water, Energy, Food, and Ecosystems, shaped by climate variability and pressing sectoral demand, especially during the dry months. This research applies the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus approach to assess the resource interdependencies, trade-offs, and synergies across the seven hydrographic districts of the Sardinia region, with both qualitative and quantitative tools for the holistic assessment of the WEFE system. The qualitative assessment was complemented by Hoff WEF nexus analytical framework, and Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to identify the sectoral challenges and capture the dynamic interactions between WEFE sectors. The qualitative tools shaped the structure and parameters of the quantitative (R-WEFE Nexus platform) tool enhancing their ability to reflect the real-world dynamics and interactions within WEFE sectors. The R-WEFE Nexus platform was validated to analyse the impacts of sectoral dynamics, socioeconomic and climate change projections, and strategic management policies on nexus performance. The validated system dynamic-based R-WEFE Nexus platform was applied to the seven (Coghinas-Mannu-Temo, Liscia, Posada-Cedrino, Tirso, Sud-Orientale, Sulcis and Flumendosa-Campidano) hydrographic districts of Sardinia region, to simulate integrated trends over the historical (1981-2014) and future (2015-2070) periods by considering the socioeconomic and climate change scenarios under SSP126 and SSP585. 

The findings show a critical decline in reservoir water levels, projected prevalent warning conditions of reservoir status indicators (0.15-0.3) in most of the hydrographic districts under SSP126 and SSP585, and often falling below emergency threshold (< 0.15) during the peak seasonal water demand. This heightened vulnerability is expected from the combined effect of escalating irrigation for agriculture and the substantial rise in water demand associated with heightened tourist influxes during the summer months. Water quality is expected to be further compromised by elevated nitrate concentration in surface water largely attributable to agricultural runoff, affecting aquatic ecosystems. The increasing energy demand, fostered by increasing demand and degraded resources, does withstand growing development potential in the Sardinia region for integration of renewable energy sources (Solar and Wind) as a key strategy for reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels and significantly reducing CO2 emissions.

The study emphasized the critical need for cross-sectoral collaboration and integrated governance to effectively tackle resource management challenges. Such efforts are important for ensuring sustainable development, and ecosystem integrity and enhancing resilience to the impact of socio-economic pressure and climate change, paving the way for advancing resource efficiency and long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Aslam, M. F., Masia, S., Debolini, M., Susnik, J., Borgo, A., Mereu, S., and Trabucco, A.: Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem Nexus approach for holistic resource assessment in Sardinia region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18049, 2025.

EGU25-18291 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Co-location of agriculture and solar energy from a global WEFE-Nexus perspective 

Nikolas Galli, Maddalena Curioni, Francesco Capone, Giampaolo Manzolini, and Maria Cristina Rulli

Solar energy is projected to become the main player in the clean energy transition. This will inevitably lead to the construction of utility scale photovoltaic plants, which can generate local competitions for land, especially with agriculture, compounding with other pressures on the agricultural sector such as climate change and demographic increase. From a Water-Energy-Food-Environment Nexus perspective, the superposition of panels and croplands on the same land, often referred to as agrivoltaics, can transform this competition into a synergy, thanks to the mutual provision of benefits between plants and panels. Under which conditions these synergies occur has been extensively studied at the local scale, while large-scale studies bridging the gap between the global energy transition challenge and its local limitations are still an emerging line of research. Here we quantify the current competition between photovoltaic and agriculture by cross-referencing high-resolution global datasets, and we assess the impact of shading from panels on water-stressed rainfed agriculture globally. To do so, we force a spatially distributed crop specific agro-hydrological model with different levels of solar radiation attenuation, and assess changes in water stress and biomass production rates to derive the associated yield response. Finally, we combine these results with a multi-criteria filtering approach and tolerance thresholds on yield losses to identify global croplands convertible to agrivoltaics. We find that 13%-16% of the global ground-mounted photovoltaic plants can be directly associated with a loss in croplands, while for 22% to 35% of the global rainfed croplands agrivoltaics would provide negligible damages if not benefits. In particular in arid and hot climates, agrivoltaics can reduce water stress, improving water use efficiency and yields. While such a study cannot be used as a feasibility study for agrivoltaic plants locally, it helps identifying regions where agrivoltaics can be a promising solution worth further investigation. This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Galli, N., Curioni, M., Capone, F., Manzolini, G., and Rulli, M. C.: Co-location of agriculture and solar energy from a global WEFE-Nexus perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18291, 2025.

EGU25-18310 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Rural-urban water scarcity risks in historically water-abundant regions: The role of intensifying human-natural systems variability 

Christian Klassert, Jasmin Heilemann, Simon Werner, Mansi Nagpal, Edward Digman, Bernd Klauer, and Erik Gawel

The growing frequency and severity of extreme and compound events will pose unprecedented water scarcity challenges. These challenges are not only driven by changes in water resource availability, but also in water demands and quality, and can affect both arid and non-arid regions. As a consequence, trade-offs between rural and urban water uses across multiple sectors intensify. Behaviors, infrastructures, and institutions in many historically water-abundant regions are not adapted to efficiently allocate water under critical levels of scarcity. The resulting water scarcity risks so far receive insufficient attention. We integrate hydro-economic models in order to assess the potential for increasing trade-offs between rural and urban water use under socio-economic and climate change scenarios in a case study in Germany. We find that a multiplication in irrigation water demands in the relatively precipitation-scarce eastern part of the country threatens to compete with urban water consumption peaks under droughts and heat waves. Enhancing resilience for these water conflicts will require adaptation measures that equally account for human and natural scarcity drivers and that consistently consider the value of water across all rural and urban sectors.

How to cite: Klassert, C., Heilemann, J., Werner, S., Nagpal, M., Digman, E., Klauer, B., and Gawel, E.: Rural-urban water scarcity risks in historically water-abundant regions: The role of intensifying human-natural systems variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18310, 2025.

EGU25-18436 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Blue and Green Water Footprint disparities of European households: A spatial structural decomposition analysis approach 

Sara Miranda Buetas, Rosa Duarte Pac, and Cristina Sarasa Fernández

Water is an essential resource for the development of any economy as well as for human well-being. However, recent environmental crises, such as long periods of drought, are increasingly jeopardising the availability of this resource. The water footprint is caused not only by productive activity but also by household consumption. Thus, households also have a responsibility to be aware of their consumption, as their consumption patterns will produce a certain water footprint.

It is in this context that we propose this article. Using a socially (different income groups) as well as environmentally (blue and green water footprint) extended multi-regional and multi-sectoral input-output model, we aim to analyse the per capita blue water footprint of European households for the year 2021. Not only that, but through a spatial structural decomposition analysis, we aim to investigate the disparities in the water footprint of European households, trying to find out what factors lie behind these differences. We intend to do this research not only for the total number of European households, but also for their income quintiles.

The first results show that households in the most developed European economies have the largest per capita blue water footprint. Behind this footprint is the fact that the intensity effect distances these powers from the European average. On the other hand, the consumption patterns of these economies are more water intensive than the average European region, especially in domestic terms. This would lead us to highlight the importance of developing measures to raise consumer awareness of water consumption in these countries.

How to cite: Miranda Buetas, S., Duarte Pac, R., and Sarasa Fernández, C.: Blue and Green Water Footprint disparities of European households: A spatial structural decomposition analysis approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18436, 2025.

EGU25-18715 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Policy attribution based on data-driven control 

Elise Jonsson, Janez Sušnik, Sara Masia, Andreina Francisco, Andrijana Todorovic, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus is a highly complex system that is difficult and time-consuming to construct models for. Yet these models are often necessary to assess how impacts from different control variables—such as policy-, population-, climate-, and land use changes—propagate through the WEF Nexus. Here we look at this problem through the lens of control systems theory, where control refers to how we manipulate or disturb the system.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and its many variants have shown promise in modelling ever-more complex dynamical systems based entirely on measurement data. In this study, we specifically look at DMD with control (DMDc) and evaluate how it may be used to assess policy impacts within the WEF nexus based entirely on data. DMDc takes state data and control input data and constructs a linear dynamical system. The resulting model allows for easy interpretation and manipulation of the control variables to investigate how the system evolves under e.g., different policies.

To assess the performance of DMDc for WEF Nexus purposes, we use an existing high-dimensional System Dynamics Model (SDM) of the WEF nexus to generate different policy-driven data scenarios, which are used to benchmark the DMDc method. DMDc shows promise at reconstructing and attributing the impacts of policies based on data generated by the SDM, despite the data being extremely underdetermined. However, there are several caveats and questions that remain, which we believe newer DMD variants may address.

How to cite: Jonsson, E., Sušnik, J., Masia, S., Francisco, A., Todorovic, A., Grabs, T., and Teutschbein, C.: Policy attribution based on data-driven control, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18715, 2025.

Consumption behaviors exert pressure on water resources both locally and globally through interconnected supply chains, hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6 (Clean water and sanitation) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production). However, it is challenging to link hotspots of water depletion across spatial scales to final consumption while reflecting intersectoral competition for water. Here, we estimate the global exceedance of regional freshwater boundaries (RFBs) due to human water withdrawal at a 5-arcmin grid scale using 2015 data, enabling the identification of hotspots across different spatial scales. To reduce uncertainty, we use average estimates from 15 global hydrological models and 5 environmental flow requirement methods. We further attribute the hotspots of exceedance to final consumption across 245 economies and 134 sectors via a multi-region input-output model, EMERGING. Our refined framework reveals previously unknown connections between regional hotspots and consumption through international trade. Notably, 24% of grid-level RFB exceedance (718.0 km3/yr; 95% confidence interval of 659.2-775.5 km3/yr) is outsourced through trade, with the largest flows (51.8 km3/yr; 95% confidence interval of 47.1-56.0 km3/yr) from water-stressed South-Central Asia to arid West Asia. The demand for cereals and other agricultural products dominates global consumption-based RFB exceedance (29.0%), while the exports of textiles and machinery and equipment exacerbate territorial exceedance in manufacturing hubs within emerging economies. Our analysis facilitates tracing global hotspots of water scarcity along the supply chain, and assigning responsibilities at finer scales.

How to cite: Zhao, X. and Hou, S.: Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19118, 2025.

EGU25-19460 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Development of a Regional Hydrological Platform and a Water-Energy-Food Nexus Model for the Amazon Basin 

Raphaél Payet-Burin, Silvia Santos da Silva, Fekadu Moreda, Silvio Pereira-Cardenal, and Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm

The Amazon Basin, the world’s largest watershed, plays a critical role in regulating the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Given its importance, addressing the region’s growing environmental, social, and economic challenges requires an integrated approach to sustainable development. This study documents the development and application of an integrated water-energy-food nexus model to support the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in evaluating infrastructure and policy interventions in the basin. The nexus model allows for multi-sectoral analysis, providing a framework to quantify interdependencies and trade-offs across water, energy, and food systems in face of climate change, land-use dynamics, and socioeconomic uncertainties. 

Three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), “Extractive,” and “Sustainable”, are analyzed. The BAU scenario serves as a baseline, while the Extractive scenario maximizes natural resource exploitation through hydropower and irrigation. In contrast, the Sustainable scenario emphasizes resource preservation, limiting deforestation and promoting yield improvement policies. These intervention scenarios are assessed under uncertainty scenarios derived from stakeholder consultations, combining climate change and socio-technical factors. 

The key findings of the study are: 

  • The Amazon region faces minimal trade-offs between water uses due to its water abundance and limited consumptive water activities, such as irrigation, which only accounts for 3.9% of cultivated land. Access to water is more constrained by financial, institutional, or quality issues rather than water availability. 
  • Although the Amazon might experiences significant seasonal changes in precipitation (up to -50% in some months), its high rainfall and the timing of dry seasons minimize climate change impacts on seasonal crops. However, temperature changes and "savannafication" could reduce forest areas and, consequently, precipitation. Livestock production, dependent on year-round grazing, might face greater risks.
  • Hydropower, despite water abundance, remains vulnerable to climate variability. Most planned Amazonian plants are run-of-the-river systems, relying on past climate conditions. Climate change could reduce hydropower output by up to 10%, particularly during already dry months when demand peaks. This could diminish hydropower’s value, especially in a future energy mix reliant on intermittent sources like wind. 
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Amazon are predominantly linked to land-use changes. Particularly deforestation for cattle ranching and crop cultivation, which account for 50-80% of emissions under different scenarios, while direct cattle emissions contribute by 10-30%. Addressing GHG reductions requires a holistic approach, given the inter-sectoral trade-offs, especially concerning biofuel crop expansion, which competes with food crops and forests, is sensitive to climate change, and impacts the energy system's emissions. 

The study highlights the necessity of integrated planning to optimize resource use, mitigate trade-offs, and promote synergies among sectors. It also emphasizes the importance of addressing uncertainties and ensuring equitable, transboundary decision-making across the basin’s eight countries. The findings provide valuable insights for ACTO, IADB, and national governments to guide feasibility studies and prioritize investments for the Amazon River Basin. 

How to cite: Payet-Burin, R., Santos da Silva, S., Moreda, F., Pereira-Cardenal, S., and Miralles-Wilhelm, F.: Development of a Regional Hydrological Platform and a Water-Energy-Food Nexus Model for the Amazon Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19460, 2025.

EGU25-19548 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Behavioral Assessment of Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus of Mahi Basin in India  

Nagashree Ge and Ashutosh Sharma

The widespread uncertainty regarding future changes in climate, socioeconomic conditions, and population growth has increased interest in water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus-based frameworks for analysis of water resources due to the imbalance in supply and demand. To address this imbalance, one should consider sectors in which there is direct or indirect utilization of water. There still exists unclearness in understanding how the ecosystem sector should be coordinated with the water-energy-food nexus (WEF Nexus). Here, we propose an analytical framework to integrate services provided by the ecosystem into WEF Nexus and analyzed their behavior. The proposed framework was applied to Mahi Basin, India, from 1995-2010 which has experienced significant blue water scarcity and agriculture water scarcity issues in past years. The framework is constituted by 28 indicators from all water, food, energy and ecosystem sectors and their behavior was analyzed based on a set of equations which determine the inter-connection between each of them. The coefficients of behavioral equations define synergy and a trade-off between sectors and inter-connections. The results explain the complex relationship and heterogeneity among the different regions in the basin and sectors, indicating a gradual improvement in synergy between water consumption and food production, while declining with soil retention especially in northern regions of the basin. Water subsystem sustainability has a significant positive impact on other ecosystem services except for food production. The study provides relationship-based, location-based management measures such as ecological protection and restoration, and strict water resources management in the basin.

How to cite: Ge, N. and Sharma, A.: Behavioral Assessment of Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus of Mahi Basin in India , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19548, 2025.

EGU25-20236 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

The Planning Kit of Pinios River Basin, Greece:An Integrated Approach to Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus Management 

Tiaravanni Hermawan, Vassilios Pisinaras, Konstantinos Babakos, Andreas Panagopoulos, and Ellis Penning

The Pinios River Basin (PRB), located in Thessaly, Central Greece, faces significant challenges in identifying sustainable solutions for managing its limited resources in a Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus context due to conflicting priorities among stakeholders. To address these challenges, an integrated tool—the Planning Kit for the PRB—was developed under the REXUS project of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program. The Planning Kit aims to provide stakeholders with an overview of the WEFE nexus dynamics.

The PRB Planning Kit was co-developed with local stakeholders through workshops and working sessions to promote more informed and inclusive decision-making. It synthesizes the results of alternative management options as proposed by the stakeholders, utilizing the results of numerous trusted, detailed process-based models and supplementary literature reviews, enabling stakeholders to explore the summarized outcomes of pre-calculated scenarios and strategies without directly interacting with the underlying complex models.

The PRB Planning Kit is designed to facilitate the interpretation of data and modeling results by providing stakeholders with a comprehensive overview through a single, accessible interface. It highlights the interconnected nature of stakeholder responsibilities by demonstrating trade-offs and showing how decisions within one sector can influence other sectors in the WEFE nexus. Lastly, its sustainability after the project's completion is trusted to the local team, who has the expertise to refine local models’ application and play a pivotal role in the development of the PRB Planning Kit. 

How to cite: Hermawan, T., Pisinaras, V., Babakos, K., Panagopoulos, A., and Penning, E.: The Planning Kit of Pinios River Basin, Greece:An Integrated Approach to Water-Food-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20236, 2025.

EGU25-20606 | Orals | HS5.3.1

Fast scalable open-source simulation of multi-sector water mega-systems 

Julien Harou, Jose Gonzalez Cabrera, and James Tomlinson

Integrated assessment of multi-sector water systems, such as interlinked river basins and energy systems, can help achieve more resilient and economically efficient resource systems. Fast scalable simulators allow exploring both the risks and synergies inherent in large multi-sector water systems. Simulators can also be linked to AI tools to enhance planning and management, making interdependencies amongst systems a positive factor rather than just a source of risk. This talk will demonstrate several uses of an integrated river basin model linkable to energy system simulation: the open-source Python water resources (Pywr) and Python energy resources (Pyenr) simulators. These simulation codes explicitly address the interconnections of large multi-sector systems to achieve efficient and appropriate spatial and sectoral benefits distribution across systems. We show several applications at national and regional scales in Ghana, East Africa and Central Asia. In all cases, we analyse how changes to the water system will impact other resource systems linked to it, including the environment. Results highlight how considering the spatiotemporal multi-sector dynamics of resource systems helps identify synergistic designs and management options. 

How to cite: Harou, J., Gonzalez Cabrera, J., and Tomlinson, J.: Fast scalable open-source simulation of multi-sector water mega-systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20606, 2025.

The paper examines how upstream dam construction impacts freshwater levels downstream, affecting salinity intrusion and agricultural productivity in the delta. The study combines historical records of dam construction on the Mekong River, water level observations, and agricultural productivity statistics, with satellite data as proxies for salinity index and vegetation coverage. The findings show that increased reservoir capacity significantly reduces downstream freshwater discharge, decreases rice yield, and intensifies saltwater intrusion, while annual electricity output partially mitigates these effects. These impacts are most severe during dry seasons and closer to the shore. Two mechanisms are identified: the disruptive but temporary ”filling effect” in the first-year post-dam completion, and the persistent, smaller ”operational effect” over time.

How to cite: Vu, H.: Impact of Dams on Salinity Intrusion and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Mekong River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20779, 2025.

EGU25-21077 | ECS | Orals | HS5.3.1

Evaluation of Water Policy Interventions in the Face of Climate Change: Insights from the Colorado River Basin 

Daniel Crespo, Mehdi Nemati, Ariel Dinar, and Zachary Frankel

The exceptional low water inflows and the inadequate water allocation during the early 21st century led to a crisis in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). The crisis revealed the vulnerability of the system and the needed of changes of the water policies. Climate change worsen water scarcity and increase the risk of extreme drought events, with impacts on the water-dependent economic sectors in the USA and Mexico. Water management requires policy interventions to address the emerging conditions resulting from climate change. The submitted paper analyzes the risk and economic impacts of climate change in the CRB. Using a hydro-economic model (HEM), we compare the economic benefit of the current allocation rules with alternative policies: cap-and-trade and social planner allocations. The HEM incorporates hydrology, agriculture (39 crops across 2.2 million acres distributed in 40 irrigation districts), urban water use (379 cities, 33.4 million people), and hydropower generation (9 plants, 10,225 gigawatt-hours annually). Future runoff simulations are based on climate change projections and a statistical method called copula, which generates synthetic time series of water inflows with similar characteristics to the projections. The model operates on a monthly temporal scale over a simulation window of 30 years. The model operates on a monthly timescale over 30 years, with 100 simulations for each policy under both historical and projected climate conditions.

The results are interpreted statistically to provide a range of potential outcomes and their likelihood. The analysis reveals the probabilistic distribution of water curtailments and their impacts on different users and regions. The analysis provides insights into the basin's vulnerability to climate change. The economic benefits of the social planner water allocation are compared under the current policy and a cap-and-trade policy to assess the costs associated with each. The analysis explores the potential benefits of water trade among sectors, states, and Tribal Nations, identifying potential cooperative arrangements among stakeholders. Inter-state cooperation and economically beneficial arrangements among stakeholders could enhance water use efficiency. The rigidity of the current system can lead to maladaptation to climate change. The agricultural sector is examined to identify potential crop pattern changes for adaptation. Additionally, the analysis assesses risks within urban areas. The shadow price of water in the border between the USA and Mexico is estimated as a proxy of the compensation from water users in United States to those in Mexico.

How to cite: Crespo, D., Nemati, M., Dinar, A., and Frankel, Z.: Evaluation of Water Policy Interventions in the Face of Climate Change: Insights from the Colorado River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21077, 2025.

EGU25-852 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Assessing the impact of ENSO on Vegetation during the Kharif Season over India 

Aarti Soni, Ankur Srivastava, Prasanth Pillai, A. Suryachandra Rao, and Nilesh Wagh

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of monsoon variability that significantly affects agricultural production in India. This study evaluates the teleconnections between strong ENSO events during 1982-2017; the vegetation conditions and water availability over the Indian region. For this purpose, various indices (i.e., Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Soil Moisture Index (SMCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Soil Moisture Agricultural Drought Index (SMADI)) are evaluated to determine agricultural drought conditions during the Kharif season (July to October) in India. Results indicate that vegetation conditions are strongly associated with Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and vary with geographical conditions. The correlation analysis between root zone soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and vegetation conditions with SST delineates strong feedback with 1-2 months of lead time. Most of the indices show that drought severity was mainly pronounced in most of the parts of Peninsular, Central Northeast (particularly in Indo-Gangetic Plain), and West Central India during strong El Niño years. On the contrary, during strong La Niña years, some areas also experienced drought conditions in the Indo-Gangetic. Further investigation through empirical orthogonal teleconnections (EOT) and correlation analysis confirms the similar teleconnection impacts in the Indian region. These findings contribute to the understanding of drought dynamics in Indian regions. However, due to extreme heat as evident from TCI, the vegetation-based indices were not always consistent with precipitation and soil moisture-based indices. This study highlights that the impact of ENSO on agricultural conditions had a lead-time of up to 2 months in, which has significant potential to enhance the early warning system for agriculture and food security.

How to cite: Soni, A., Srivastava, A., Pillai, P., Rao, A. S., and Wagh, N.: Assessing the impact of ENSO on Vegetation during the Kharif Season over India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-852, 2025.

EGU25-948 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Field scale assessment of subsurface drainage systems (SSDS) for efficient crop water management with improved crop productivity for agriculture in the northern Finland. 

Kedar Surendranath Ghag, Anandharuban Panchanathan, Syed Mustafa Md Touhidul, Toni Liedes, Björn Klöve, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

Precision agriculture is essential to optimize the crop water use even in the environmental conditions with adequate water availability. It ensures the optimal water retention and reduced nutrient leaching for agricultural field. By doing so, precision agriculture also confirms tackling the situations like changing climate with varied seasonal weather patterns, availability of adequate water resources for crop growth and altering surface water quality due to runoff from agriculture. 
Although, the agriculture in the Nordics is not under acute pressure of water scarcity however the situations of unprecedented weather conditions during the crop growing season requires necessary attention. Moreover, the subsequent effects of long-term changing climate predictions on the surface as well as groundwater availability in the region are concerning. Under such circumstances the conventional use of SSDS implementing controlled drainage (CD) approach with its impact on field-scale hydrology with a shallow groundwater state were assessed in recent studies. However, neither its subsequent effects on the field-scale crop productivity nor its integration with possible strategies to optimize crop water use under long-term predicted state of subsurface hydrology in the region were investigated.
This study presents the long-term climate assessment for agriculture in the Northern Finland with its impact on the seasonal crop yield. Also, with the use of process-based model approach the study attempts to present a possible eco-friendly strategy with necessary updates in the existing SSDS to optimize the crop water use under the adverse conditions of long-term forecasted state of subsurface hydrology in the region. In addition, the study presents the field scale crop productivity by ensuring the enhanced water retention and reduced nutrients from agriculture with precision in farm management practices to sustain or improve the crop productivity. The simulation results with crop water productivity tool over historical dataset showed over 40 to 60 percent rise in the seasonal crop yield under adverse climate conditions. Whereas the results for overall amount of soil water required to replenish the crop water need showed a difference of almost 0.016994 MCM per ha in case of effective integration of SSDS with more efficient water application systems for agriculture. 
Moreover, this work introduces Data learning approach which talks about Integration of multi-source data (DI) and Machine Learning (ML) approach to real-world data. We present a broader perspective followed while developing applications based on Data Learning approach. We present a data learning method and results for a case study field which involves process based as well as machine learning approach.

How to cite: Ghag, K. S., Panchanathan, A., Md Touhidul, S. M., Liedes, T., Klöve, B., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Field scale assessment of subsurface drainage systems (SSDS) for efficient crop water management with improved crop productivity for agriculture in the northern Finland., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-948, 2025.

EGU25-1773 | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Evaluation of crop-water mutual suitability and optimization of water-adaptive cropping for dryland farming in Loess Plateau 

xining zhao, jichao wang, xiaodong gao, qi liu, changjian li, and xuerui gao

The intensified impacts of climate change, declining water resources, and rising food demand pose significant challenges to rainfed agriculture in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The Loess Plateau, as a representative area, has long suffered from water scarcity, low water use efficiency, and mismatch between cropping structure and water resource distribution. To address these issues and promote high-quality, sustainable agricultural development, this study evaluated the crop-water mutual suitability to explore the strategies for water-adaptive cropping optimization. The research employs the following approaches: 1) Cropping structure on the Loess Plateau (2017–2022) were identified using an integrated phenology and machine learning approach. The resulting maps demonstrated high overall accuracies (0.83), showing strong agreement with municipal statistical data (R² ≥ 0.76). 2) The effective water supply and crop water demand were quantified using remote-sensing-based water balance assessment tool (RWBAT). A Crop Water Suitability (CWS) index was developed to quantitatively evaluate crop-water suitability across the region. The analysis revealed suboptimal water suitability (CWS < 0.35) in the central double-cropping zones and the hilly-gully regions of the Plateau. 3) A tightly coupled multi-objective optimization framework, integrating RWBAT model, was designed to optimize cropping structures. Compared to 2022 baseline condition, the optimization results indicated 25.6% improvement in crop water use efficiency and 5.3% increase in net income from crop production. The research results provide scientific basis and operational solutions for crop water resources management in the Loess Plateau and even similar arid areas, and provide an important reference for coping with climate change and agricultural water resources crisis.

How to cite: zhao, X., wang, J., gao, X., liu, Q., li, C., and gao, X.: Evaluation of crop-water mutual suitability and optimization of water-adaptive cropping for dryland farming in Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1773, 2025.

EGU25-2145 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Global irrigation cooling benefits: the spatial-temporal patterns and possible mechanisms 

Lubin Han and Guoyong Leng

Irrigation benefits crop yields directly by providing additional water and indirectly by reducing surface temperature (i.e., irrigation cooling benefit). To date, how irrigation cooling benefit is spatial-temporally distributed remains elusive at the global scale. Here, by synthesizing various datasets and data-driven models, we quantify global irrigation cooling benefits and explore the underlying mechanisms behind its spatial-temporal patterns. Results show that irrigation has exerted a cooling benefit (relative to its total benefit) of 7.76%, 9.43%, 6.92%, 5.0% and 2.82% for the globe, Northeastern China, North China Plain, Southern Great Plain and Northern India, respectively. A greater global-scale benefit of 8.62% is estimated for the year 2010 which is mainly achieved by reducing yield sensitivity to cooling rather than cooling magnitude. Maximum temperature and irrigation properties are found to modulate the spatial pattern of irrigation cooling benefit, while regional characteristics (e.g., the coefficient of variation and mean of irrigation yield increase) control its temporal differences. Additional analysis shows that the grid resolution and the number of maize patches are the main uncertainty sources of the estimated irrigation cooling benefits, suggesting the importance to develop more finer and long-term observational yield datasets under rainfed and irrigated conditions.

How to cite: Han, L. and Leng, G.: Global irrigation cooling benefits: the spatial-temporal patterns and possible mechanisms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2145, 2025.

EGU25-3467 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Soil moisture and wind speed exacerbate the propagation from snow drought to vegetation browning 

Zhixia Wang, Shengzhi Huang, Xiaoting Wei, and Dong Liu

Dry and warm snow drought has a lagging effect on vegetation browning during the growing season, but has not been systematically studied. This study quantified the propagation characteristics (propagation time and probability) of dry and warm snow drought on warm season vegetation browning, using the proposed three-dimensional conditional probability framework, and evaluated the potential driving mechanisms using random forest. Findings indicated that while the propagation time and probability were long in late summer and early autumn, they were short in late spring and early summer. The probability of vegetation productivity loss in the warm season was positively impacted by the severity of dry snow drought, whereas it was negatively impacted by warm snow drought. The warm snow drought had a more noticeable effect on warm-season vegetation than had dry-type in changing environment, with soil moisture and wind speed playing a major role.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Huang, S., Wei, X., and Liu, D.: Soil moisture and wind speed exacerbate the propagation from snow drought to vegetation browning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3467, 2025.

EGU25-4296 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Observational Constraint Reveal Overestimation of Required Water Storage Expansion under Climate Change 

Lei Yao, Guoyong Leng, and Linfei Yu

Effective water storage strategies are essential for reducing drought and flood risks, enhancing agricultural productivity, and fostering socioeconomic development. However, estimating future required water storage capacity (RWSC) is subject to great uncertainty due to varying model predictions of runoff variability (Rv). Here we integrate observations with the identified emergent constraint framework to refine global ΔRv estimates and reassess ΔRWSC across global basins. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2070-2099, the constrained RWSC increases by 24.39-29.93% across all three return periods (30, 50, and 100 years) compared to the historical period (1980-2014). Notably, the constrained ΔRWSC exhibits a significant decrease, particularly in lower-middle-income basins (by 11.66-22.12%) and low-income basins (by 7.95-14.69%), due to overestimations in ΔRv (by 26.98%). Our findings suggest a lower risk associated with Rv and a diminished need for water storage expansion, especially in basins with lower income levels, as shown by raw model projections.

How to cite: Yao, L., Leng, G., and Yu, L.: Observational Constraint Reveal Overestimation of Required Water Storage Expansion under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4296, 2025.

EGU25-4617 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Combining sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and seasonal climate forecast for 8-day dynamic in-season maize yield prediction in northeast China 

Chenxi Lu, Guoyong Leng, Lubin Han, Linfei Yu, Jiali Qiu, Lei Yao, Xiaoyong Liao, Shengzhi Huang, and Jian Peng

Satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has shown a promising skill for end-of-season crop yield prediction due to its close linkage with photosynthesis. However, the benefits of SIF have rarely been examined for in-season crop yield forecasts, which would depend on current-phase crop growing status and unknown-stage climate conditions. By leveraging SIF, seasonal climate forecasts and machine learning, we build an in-season maize yield forecast system at the 8-day scale in Northeast China (NEC). The value of SIF is demonstrated by comparing it against traditional vegetation indices (VIs). Overall, reliable yield forecasts can be achieved two months before the harvest (jointing–tasseling) in NEC, with an average bias of less than 2.5%. Assimilating SIF into the yield forecast system exhibits a better performance than VIs except in the medium-growing stage. The added value of SIF is more pronounced in the dry and hot years, especially under the early and early-medium growth phases.  Attribution analysis reveals that the absorbing radiation signal carried by SIF is the main driver for its advantage over VIs under the early and early-medium phases, while its outperformance under the medium-late and late stages is related to both the reflection of photosynthetic rate and the absorbing radiation signal. This study provides a valuable framework for weekly yield predictions, which has great implications for early warning of yield loss risk in China.

How to cite: Lu, C., Leng, G., Han, L., Yu, L., Qiu, J., Yao, L., Liao, X., Huang, S., and Peng, J.: Combining sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and seasonal climate forecast for 8-day dynamic in-season maize yield prediction in northeast China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4617, 2025.

EGU25-6457 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Variability: Insights into European Potato Growing Seasons 

Mojtaba Naghdyzadegan Jahromi, Mojtaba Saboori, Alireza Gohari, Sahand Ghadimi, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

Potato cultivation is one of Europe's and also Finland’s most important agricultural sectors, and climatic variability highly affects its yield. Large-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as teleconnection patterns, are paramount for the regional climatic features to which temperature and precipitation are significant components of potato growth. This is due to the complex climatic interactions caused by teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), which have not been fully discussed within the context of potato farming. This study aims to address possible potato yield predictions from the teleconnection patterns. The study employs machine learning techniques to investigate the relationship between different teleconnection indices and European potato yield variability. Advanced algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were applied to integrate historical climatic data, teleconnection indices, and potato yield records to develop robust predictive models to help identify the most important climatic drivers and capture nonlinear interactions among teleconnections and agricultural outputs. We examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of teleconnection patterns and their correlation with climate variations across European regions during potato growing seasons. By focusing on the relationship between teleconnections and agrarian outputs, the study seeks to contribute to developing climate-resilient farm strategies in Europe to achieve better food security in the face of changing climate.

How to cite: Naghdyzadegan Jahromi, M., Saboori, M., Gohari, A., Ghadimi, S., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Teleconnection Patterns and Climate Variability: Insights into European Potato Growing Seasons, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6457, 2025.

Human activities significantly impact global water resource availability through alterations in terrestrial water cycle processes, with agricultural irrigation being a primary driver. Accurately quantifying irrigation water use is essential for understanding regional water resource dynamics, optimizing water resource allocation, and improving agricultural productivity. However, high-quality data on irrigation canal networks is often lacking at regional scales, hindering the precise delineate of river sources for irrigation. To address this, this study developed a large-scale canal system detection method using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques and large-scale satellite remote sensing images. The method enabled the identification of canal networks, clarified the irrigation intake points, and facilitated the calculation of irrigation water volumes supplied by various mainstream and tributaries in the basin. The Mekong River Basin, where riparian states heavily rely on tributaries for irrigation and face difficulties in acquiring canal data, is selected as the study area. The results show that the developed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based method successfully detected 291 irrigation canals sourced from mainstream and tributaries of the Mekong River, with 43% of the main canals drawing directly from the mainstream and the remainder from tributaries. Spatial analysis reveals a higher canal density in the south compared to the north of the basin. Additionally, irrigation water use is markedly higher during the dry season from November to the following April, accounting for 69% of annual irrigation consumption, peaking in January and reaching a minimum in September. This research has the potential to address critical data gaps in irrigation in the Mekong River Basin, enhance the understanding of agricultural irrigation water use, and provide essential insights for effective water resource management and sustainable agricultural development.

How to cite: Zhao, H.: Intelligent Remote Sensing Canal System Detection and Irrigation Water Use Estimation: A Case Study in the Transboundary Mekong River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6604, 2025.

EGU25-10230 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Impacts of climate change on cereal irrigation and water productivity in the Yellow River Basin, China 

Yanqi Liu, Zailin Huo, and Anne Gobin

Increasing food demand and water scarcity pose critical challenges to food and water security, exacerbated by climate change. Although substantial progress has been made in crop yield forecasting, limited research has investigated how irrigation water requirements (IWR) and water productivity (WP) respond to changing climate conditions at a basin scale. To address this knowledge gap, we developed an agro-hydrological model to estimate IWR and WP for maize and wheat across the Yellow River Basin (YRB)—a major cereal-producing region in China—under different climate scenarios from CMIP6. Projections indicate that 70% of maize-irrigated areas will experience an increase in IWR of more than 20%, particularly in the lower YRB due to reduced rainfall during the growing season. In contrast, spring wheat IWR is projected to decrease by 12–16% in the western YRB and 5–8% in the northern YRB, depending on irrigation frequency, due to increased rainfall. Although over 90% of the winter wheat-irrigated areas may require less irrigation water in the near future (2021–2060), non-negligible increases in IWR are expected in the far future (2061–2100) in the southern YRB due to increasing reference evapotranspiration (ET0). These effects increase with higher levels of radiative forcing and longer time horizons. In addition, changes in IWR are most pronounced in humid areas (low ET0/P ratios), while increases in WP are most pronounced in areas with ET0/P values around 1.7 for maize and 4 for spring wheat. The implementation of high-frequency irrigation could mitigate large-scale negative effects. These results highlight the need for water-saving irrigation practices to improve water and food security in the YRB.

How to cite: Liu, Y., Huo, Z., and Gobin, A.: Impacts of climate change on cereal irrigation and water productivity in the Yellow River Basin, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10230, 2025.

EGU25-11319 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Crop Yield Forecasting in the Subseasonal Timescale: Case Study of the Blue Nile Basin 

Yasir Hageltom, Joel Arnault, and Harald Kunstmann

The Blue Nile Basin, shared by Ethiopia and Sudan, is a region of significant agricultural importance, supporting the livelihoods of millions who rely on its resources for farming. However, this area faces critical challenges linked to climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, which lead to increased crop yield variability. These factors have increased the unpredictability of farming, making it difficult for farmers to plan planting, irrigation, and harvesting schedules effectively. Moreover, the growing population in the Blue Nile region further intensifies the pressure on agricultural systems to produce sufficient food. These challenges highlight the pressing need for crop yield forecasts to enhance agricultural planning, ensure resource efficiency, and strengthen food security in this vulnerable region.

This research aims to address these challenges by adopting crop yield forecasts at a subseasonal timescale, integrating process-based crop models into a high-resolution atmospheric simulation framework. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with the Noah-MP land surface model, is used to simulate land-atmosphere interactions, including soil moisture, temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. The output from the WRF-NoahMP system is then fed into a process-based crop model to simulate crop growth and estimate yields.

The study seeks to produce an accurate model capable of reproducing water availability and crop yields in the Blue Nile region, considering the limited availability of observational data, and to compare the performance of the process-based crop model against traditional statistical approaches. By providing early warning signals for potential yield fluctuations, this research offers practical tools for improving agricultural decision-making. The findings have implications not only for farmers and policymakers in the Blue Nile Basin but also for regions facing similar climate-induced challenges, paving the way for adaptive strategies in a rapidly changing global environment.

How to cite: Hageltom, Y., Arnault, J., and Kunstmann, H.: Crop Yield Forecasting in the Subseasonal Timescale: Case Study of the Blue Nile Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11319, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11319, 2025.

EGU25-11792 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Simulating irrigation demand under climate change applying a high-resolution hydro-economic Multi-Agent-System model in Thuringia 

Simon Werner, Jasmin Heilemann, Christian Klassert, Mansi Nagpal, Bernd Klauer, and Erik Gawel

Agricultural systems in regions with previously low scale irrigation such as Thuringia, Germany, face an increase of droughts and weather extremes through climate change. Farmers are expected to adapt by increasing irrigation as a means of securing incomes. For Thuringia this entails water security implications due to limited groundwater resources and strong reliability on surface water highlighting the need to understand the feedbacks between human and natural systems in order to ensure efficient allocation and protection of water resources. So far, few studies have simultaneously combined hydro-economic models of the agricultural sector with hydrological models on a high spatial disaggregation to inform the future resilience of human-natural systems in historically water abundant regions such as Central Europe. We apply the DroughtMAS model, which simulates agricultural agents representing the production conditions of the local area, to Thuringia on a 4x4 km grid. We calibrate the model with plot-level remote sensing data using Econometric Mathematical Programming (EMP) to simulate cropping and irrigation decisions. Potential yields under climate change are calculated using machine-learning models. Socio-economic and climatic futures are simulated based on a plausible set of downscaled scenarios for Thuringia expanding upon the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Regionalized Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Regional water demand is linked to models of available groundwater to assess water security. We find a locally differentiated increase in irrigation demand and water insecurity under scenarios of drought and socio-economic change, implying the need for demand-side interventions or a provision of sufficient reservoir capacities. A spatially explicit coupled hydro-economic multi-agent approach enables an economic valuation of demand and supply side management options to inform the adaptation options towards climate resilient agricultural and hydrological systems.

How to cite: Werner, S., Heilemann, J., Klassert, C., Nagpal, M., Klauer, B., and Gawel, E.: Simulating irrigation demand under climate change applying a high-resolution hydro-economic Multi-Agent-System model in Thuringia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11792, 2025.

EGU25-14078 | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Global Hotspots for Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change  

Xuejun Zhang and Yanping Qu

Climate change has significantly affected terrestrial water cycle, but future runoff change response to global warming remains uncertain among CMIPs. Here, we estimate the runoff sensitivity to global mean temperature (GMT) change and recognize global runoff response hotpots from existing CMIPs. Results show that global mean runoff increases linearly with GMT rise (3.3%/℃) in CMIP6, which is more sensitive than CMIP3 (1.9%/℃) and CMIP5 (2.9%/℃). Albeit with difference in the magnitude of regional runoff sensitivity, CMIPs exhibit consistent spatial pattern in terms of the direction of runoff response. Furthermore, exiting CMIPs projected that the significant negative runoff response hotspots mostly occur in the extended subtropics, while hotspots to experience significant wetting are mainly found in the northern high-latitude and some water-scare areas. Our results highlight global hotpots of runoff response to climate change from CMIP3 to CMIP6, which may benefit to develop associated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Zhang, X. and Qu, Y.: Global Hotspots for Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14078, 2025.

EGU25-16347 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.3.2

Climate change impacts on Swiss cropland suitability 

Francesca Bassani, Mosisa Wakjira, Nadav Peleg, and Sara Bonetti

The increasing impacts of climate change are causing serious challenges for global food security and sustainable agriculture. A key concern is how changing climate conditions, such as precipitation and temperature, might influence the suitability of croplands and agricultural systems, with significant consequences for future food production and related policies. This issue is particularly relevant in Switzerland, as mountainous regions and lowlands are especially vulnerable to foreseen climate changes, including rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, characterized by reduced summer rainfall and increased winter precipitation. Furthermore, soil properties, such as pH and organic carbon, are also expected to change due to increased aridity and warming. In this study, by establishing relations between soil and climate factors and crop yield, we evaluate the suitability of five major crops produced in Switzerland (namely rye, wheat, barley, vines, and maize) via a data-driven model. We derive spatially explicit results for current and future scenarios. Findings for the reference year 2000 show that the leading drivers affecting the suitability are mostly related to climate rather than soil conditions. The relative effect of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation varies depending on the crop and its geographic location, highlighting context-specific impacts of climate variations and their interlinkages. Regarding future projections, we assess how shifts in projected temperature and rainfall regimes under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) translate into spatial variations in crop suitability compared to the year 2000. Regions facing the strongest warming by 2090 are projected to lose suitability for all the crops considered here, with temperature emerging, overall, as the dominant driver of such shifts, particularly in the Swiss lowlands.

How to cite: Bassani, F., Wakjira, M., Peleg, N., and Bonetti, S.: Climate change impacts on Swiss cropland suitability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16347, 2025.

EGU25-581 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Impact of agricultural development policies on land use, water resources and rural livelihoods in the semi-arid environment of Souss Basin in Morocco. 

Moussa Ait el kadi, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Mohammed El hafyani, Soumia Gouahi, Brahim Meskour, Victor Fernandez, Chaimae Aglagal, and Mohammed Hssaisoune

While Morocco faces extreme water shortage (<500m3/cap), agricultural development policies intend to improve the agri-business sector focusing on global competitiveness and export-oriented crops. However, in vulnerable environments (e.g Souss basin) these policies contributed to exacerbation of the water crisis. Based on land use dynamics, water resources monitoring and field interviews with farmers and rural water users, our study draws a state of art of the situation and discusses the findings. Despite the fact of some short-lasting gain from these policies, land use data indicates an expansion of irrigated land from 618.96 sq km in 2002 to 1413.3 sq km in 2012 due to incentives from Green Morocco Plan (GMP). As a result of increase of water demand for irrigation coupled with extreme drought periods, the data of groundwater shows a dramatic depletion of groundwater, the strategic resource for livelihoods and drought resilience. Furthermore, learning from the field reveals the inconvenience of intensive export-oriented agriculture in a drought prone environment. In addition, farmers' perspectives and adaptation strategies indicate the importance of participatory and community-based management of natural resources. Therefore, the study demonstrates the importance of inclusion of socio-environmental vulnerabilities in agriculture development planning.

How to cite: Ait el kadi, M., Bouchaou, L., El hafyani, M., Gouahi, S., Meskour, B., Fernandez, V., Aglagal, C., and Hssaisoune, M.: Impact of agricultural development policies on land use, water resources and rural livelihoods in the semi-arid environment of Souss Basin in Morocco., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-581, 2025.

EGU25-9747 | PICO | HS5.3.3

Water-related processes: IPBES Nexus assessment Options for delivering sustainable approaches to water 

Maria J. Santos and the IPBES Nexus Assessment Water team

The recently approved and published IPBES Nexus Assessment, focuses on the interactions and interlinkages between biodiversity, water, food, health and climate. This assessment, requested by member states signatory to IPBES, defines nexus approaches, scenarios for nexus interactions and response options to each of the nexus elements with particular focus on cascading effects beyond a single nexus element. Within this context, we developed and examined the response options for water and their percolation to the other nexus elements. In this presentation, we will show (i) our process to identify the water response options which included multiple knowledge systems, (ii) their evaluation through assessing enablers and barriers, feasibility, context and scale and governance, and (iii) the robustness of our knowledge on the effectiveness of these response options to deliver on water quantity and quality. Currently, ~80% of humanity’s freshwater demand is used to meet food production, 75% of the global population in 2005 is dependent on forest for accessible freshwater, and at least 50 diseases are attributable to poor water supply, quality and sanitation. We find that the 15 response options that we examined cut across more than two nexus elements, yet we found no response option that would deliver benefits to all nexus elements concurrently. Particularly, stronger or more robust trade-offs emerge when water, biodiversity and food systems are considered. Future scenarios show that a nature positive nexus will concurrently deliver on all nexus elements, and for water specifically, the strongest impacts emerge if food systems are prioritized as well as nature overexploitation.

How to cite: Santos, M. J. and the IPBES Nexus Assessment Water team: Water-related processes: IPBES Nexus assessment Options for delivering sustainable approaches to water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9747, 2025.

EGU25-10144 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Spatio-temporal patterns of green and blue water scarcities in agriculture 

Heindriken Dahlmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Sibyll Schaphoff, and Dieter Gerten

Agricultural areas are increasingly experiencing green water stress – i.e. soil moisture limiting crop growth – due to rising water demands of an expanding world population as well as climate change. While irrigation has the potential to mitigate this stress, its effective implementation is often challenged by blue water scarcity and lack of irrigation infrastructure. In this study, we apply a newly developed plant physiological index of green water stress, modeled by the global dynamic vegetation model LPJmL, that accounts for both soil moisture limitation and atmospheric water demand of major agricultural crops. By analyzing the spatial-temporal patterns of green water stress globally and over the past decades, we identify current hotspots of green water stress which are mainly located in India and Pakistan, Southern Europe, northern Sub Saharan Africa, southern Africa and Mexico and are characterized by a high seasonal variability. We also map blue water stress relating to human water use (withdrawals for households, industry and agriculture) and demonstrate the extent to which sufficient blue water resources are available to buffer green water stress in agriculture. By focusing on the interconnectedness between green and blue water stresses through the implementation of irrigation, this study contributes to a more profound understanding of sustainable water use in agriculture.

How to cite: Dahlmann, H., Seaby Andersen, L., Schaphoff, S., and Gerten, D.: Spatio-temporal patterns of green and blue water scarcities in agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10144, 2025.

EGU25-12034 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Land Use Land Change analysis over time using the WEI index under climate change conditions: Application to Valencia Metropolitan Area (Spain) 

Claudia Romero Hernández, Javier Rodrigo Ilarri, María Elena Clavero Rodrigo, and Sergio Salazar Galán

This study examines the urban sprawl of Valencia and its metropolitan area over the past decades, focusing on the conversion of agricultural land into urban areas. The study is done using the WEI composite indicator which provides a quantitative framework for assessing the environmental value of the territory over time. To calculate the WEI values, official databases such as the Land Use Information System of Spain (SIOSE) and the World Settlement Footprint (WSF) were utilized.

The study's findings indicate that the growing urbanization of the Valencia metropolitan area has exacerbated the impacts of natural disasters, particularly flooding. Urban expansion in protected areas, such as the Albufera Natural Park, has heightened the risks associated with climate change by increasing soil impermeability and reducing water absorption capacity, thereby increasing vulnerability to extreme events. The analysis highlights how changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have intensified these impacts, as evidenced during the DANA event in October 2024. These findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and improvements in drainage infrastructure to mitigate flood risks, safeguarding both urban areas and natural spaces against future catastrophic events.

How to cite: Romero Hernández, C., Rodrigo Ilarri, J., Clavero Rodrigo, M. E., and Salazar Galán, S.: Land Use Land Change analysis over time using the WEI index under climate change conditions: Application to Valencia Metropolitan Area (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12034, 2025.

EGU25-12089 | PICO | HS5.3.3

Quantifying nitrogen flows from agricultural land using an ABM to inform future land use change for ecohydrological modelling 

Bano Mehdi-Schulz, Edberto Moura Lima, Claudine Egger, and Gaube Veronika

In agricultural catchments, the decisions made by farmers regarding crop choices and field management practices influence both water flow paths through the landscape and the amounts of reactive nitrogen (N) applied to fields. Agent-based models (ABMs) capture regionally specific, complex, and dynamic interactions between farmers and natural systems across multiple scales, enabling the simulation of physical landscape changes. In this study, we applied a novel methodology using an ABM to generate annual land use layers to inform a hydrological model. This approach allows us to spatially identify specific crops contributing to excess nitrogen flows in the landscape and into water bodies. Additionally, we link the temporal sequence of crops within their crop rotations to weather patterns, enabling us to examine nitrogen transport pathways under future change scenarios. We used the SECLAND ABM to inform the SWAT ecohydrological model of annual land use change at the field scale.

Using SECLAND, three agricultural land use scenarios were developed: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, an extensification scenario (based on SSP1), and an intensification scenario (based on SSP5). We integrated the respective annual land use layers derived from the ABM into SWAT, with and without climate change scenarios, to quantify the resulting impacts on crop yields, water balance components, nitrogen concentrations in surface flows, nitrogen leaching, and nitrogen in groundwater.

The ABM results for the BAU scenario over the next 35 years show a decrease in the number of active farms, accompanied by a loss of agricultural areas. The results also indicate a transition toward organic farming and a shift in intensity toward extensification. In all land use scenarios, less corn is grown. As well, the area of forested land increases in the future.

For all three land use scenarios, implementing the land use layers with their annual crop rotations in SWAT led to significant differences in nitrogen losses (kg/ha) to surface and subsurface water bodies, compared to using a static land use approach. All three land use scenarios consistently showed lower nitrogen losses per area to the environment, particularly for crops requiring high levels of nitrogen fertilizer (e.g., corn and winter rapeseed).

When the land use scenarios were implemented in conjunction with climate change simulations in SWAT, lower N loads in lateral flow and groundwater was simulated, and hence in reduced nitrogen losses per area. Implementing crop rotations in the SWAT model also reduced the number of water and nitrogen stress days for the crops.

Our findings underscore the importance of including detailed spatial crop rotations when assessing regional water quality, particularly in conjunction with climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we found that using static land use in hydrological modeling generally leads to an overestimation of nitrogen losses, especially from crops with high fertilizer applications.

How to cite: Mehdi-Schulz, B., Moura Lima, E., Egger, C., and Veronika, G.: Quantifying nitrogen flows from agricultural land using an ABM to inform future land use change for ecohydrological modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12089, 2025.

China faces a multifaceted challenge in ensuring food security amid escalating constraints on cropland and water resources. As the nation strives for self-sufficiency in food production, the imperative to maximize crop yields within limited land and water availability intensifies, particularly concerning the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study investigates how China can balance short-term food production gains with the long-term sustainability of groundwater by optimizing irrigation practices and strategically navigating food import policies, with a focus on the three major staple crops: wheat, rice, and maize.

Intensive agricultural systems, especially in water-scarce regions such as the North China Plain, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, are heavily reliant on groundwater extraction. This dependence poses significant risks of environmental degradation, including groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and reduced aquifer recharge, threatening both agricultural productivity and regional ecosystems. To address these issues, we conducted extensive field-based experiments across China from 2016 to 2020, encompassing 237 site-years of data. These experiments systematically varied irrigation practices to calibrate the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model, ensuring an accurate representation of regional agricultural dynamics and groundwater interactions.

Utilizing the calibrated APSIM model, we simulated irrigation demand and crop yields for wheat, rice, and maize under 125 different irrigation strategy combinations (considering both volume and timing) across baseline conditions and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) climate change scenarios. Additionally, we integrated Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to assess the availability and trends of groundwater resources across different regions, providing a comprehensive spatial analysis of water sustainability.

Our findings identify critical regions where strategic adjustments in irrigation management can significantly enhance food production while preserving groundwater resources. Specifically, optimizing irrigation timing to align with crop water demand and implementing water-saving technologies emerged as effective strategies to reduce groundwater extraction. Under the four SSP climate change scenarios, irrigation demand and crop yields exhibited varying responses, highlighting the necessity for adaptive management practices tailored to specific socioeconomic and climatic futures. In addition to optimizing irrigation, our study emphasizes the importance of a balanced food import policy to alleviate domestic water consumption in food production. By strategically importing certain food commodities, China can reduce the pressure on its limited water resources, thereby enhancing overall water sustainability. This approach complements domestic irrigation improvements and supports the cultivation of wheat, rice, and maize by ensuring that water-intensive demands are managed through a combination of local efficiency and global resource allocation.

This research underscores the importance of adopting integrated water management and strategic food import practices to ensure the long-term sustainability of China’s food production systems. The results provide actionable insights for policymakers, facilitating the design of agricultural and trade strategies that effectively balance the maintenance of food security with the preservation of essential groundwater resources for future generations. By transitioning from short-term yield maximization to sustainable irrigation management and informed food import policies, China can secure its food future while safeguarding its critical water resources and environmental integrity.

How to cite: Zhao, G., Chen, B., Yao, L., and Yu, Q.: From Short-Term Gains to Long-Term Sustainability: Rethinking Irrigation Strategies and Food Import Policies for Long-Term Sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12227, 2025.

EGU25-12516 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Evaluating Landscape Configuration Impacts on Water Yield Dynamics in Heterogeneous Catchments 

Jerome El Jeitany, Tommaso Pacetti, Boris Schröder, and Enrica Caporali

The configuration of landscapes plays a pivotal role in shaping water yield dynamics, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrological patterns within heterogeneous catchments. Employing the SWAT+ model, three land-use scenarios—agricultural, vegetative, and pasture—were simulated over 20 years to isolate the effects of landscape arrangement while maintaining constant land cover proportions. Spatial and temporal analyses of water yield patterns were conducted using space-time cubes and emerging hotspot analysis, while multinomial logistic regression assessed the influence of soil hydrological groups, proximity to land-use transitions, and landscape connectivity. The results suggests that despite minimal effect on the total water yield governed by landscape proportions, landscape configuration impacted the spatial distribution and intensity of water yield hotspots. The agricultural scenario demonstrated persistent and intensifying hotspots, attributed to fragmentation and proximity to land-use transitions, with hotspots covering 15% of the area. In contrast, vegetative and pasture scenarios reduced hotspot intensity by 12% and 9%, respectively, demonstrating more uniform water yield distributions. Hydrological group analysis highlighted the critical role of soil properties, with Group C areas exhibiting a 20% higher likelihood of transitioning from cold to hot spots compared to Group B. From a management perspective, this study stresses the need of integrating landscape configuration into watershed planning. Strategies such as preserving vegetative corridors and implementing buffer zones within agricultural patches can mitigate yield variability and optimize water-related ecosystem services. The research aims at developing further adaptive landscape management approaches that address hydrological challenges in such dynamic land use agricultural watershed.

How to cite: El Jeitany, J., Pacetti, T., Schröder, B., and Caporali, E.: Evaluating Landscape Configuration Impacts on Water Yield Dynamics in Heterogeneous Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12516, 2025.

EGU25-14454 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Seasonal Water Yield in a Basin with Semi-Arid Ecosystems of Northeastern Mexico 

Mariela Estefanía Nava Vélez, René Ventura Houle, and Glenda Nelly Requena Lara

Forest ecosystems, recognized for their ecohydrological importance, play a crucial role in regulating water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. The San Fernando-Soto la Marina Basin, located in northeastern Mexico, is a region of high significance for agricultural and livestock activities in the country. It is part of the Burgos gas region and has potential for shale gas exploration. Additionally, rapid changes in land use have significantly impacted the region's hydrological processes. Therefore, proper water management is key to conserving natural resources, fostering economic development, and ensuring water security. This study evaluates the seasonal water yield in the basin, highlighting the contribution of shrublands to the region's hydrological sustainability.

The Seasonal Water Yield (SWY) model of InVEST was used, integrating climatic, land use, soil type, and topographic data. Curve Number (CN) values were calculated to assess infiltration and runoff potential. Key parameters such as actual evapotranspiration (AET), quickflow, and baseflow were analyzed across different land use types, with a focus on forested and agricultural areas. Geospatial data were also integrated to model hydrological responses to land use and land cover changes in the basin.

The results showed that agricultural areas, covering 16.83% of the basin, as well as urban areas, had high CN values (average of 77), indicating limited infiltration and higher runoff. In contrast, oak-pine and cloud forests exhibited low CN values (0–40), promoting higher infiltration and water retention. However, these forests occupy only 5.43% of the basin's surface. Semi-arid shrublands showed moderate yields but contributed the largest water volume due to their extensive coverage (22.07% of the basin).

Shrublands and other forested areas in the San Fernando-Soto la Marina Basin are essential for mitigating surface runoff, enhancing basins recharge, and maintaining water availability. Their conservation and restoration should be prioritized to ensure ecohydrological sustainability. This study provides a foundation for integrated water management strategies, emphasizing the need for public policies that balance land use changes with water resource conservation.

How to cite: Nava Vélez, M. E., Ventura Houle, R., and Requena Lara, G. N.: Seasonal Water Yield in a Basin with Semi-Arid Ecosystems of Northeastern Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14454, 2025.

EGU25-16978 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3

Evaluating the influence of crop seasonality on flood-regulating ecosystem services in small river basins 

Marco Lompi, Nikolas Galli, Enrica Caporali, and Maria Cristina Rulli

Flood-Regulating Ecosystem Services (FRES) are widely used to assess the capacity of the environment to retain water during a storm, mitigate runoff and ultimately reduce flood risks within a river basin. FRES are commonly evaluated by assuming a change in land use to compare differences in the runoff of two scenarios: a baseline, representing actual conditions, and a scenario in which the land use of the environment is changed to barren ground. Agricultural areas contribute to flood regulation as they have a lower runoff with respect to barren or urbanised landscapes. However, methodologies to evaluate FRES in agricultural areas usually do not consider the variations in soil moisture that result from crop rotation throughout the year. Moreover, land use data typically used in such assessments describe with little or no detail the type of crop present in a given area.

To overcome these limitations, we introduce a methodology to evaluate seasonal FRES with two main research questions: i) is there a seasonality in the FRES of small agricultural river basins? ii) can different soil moisture conditions due to different crops have a diverse flood-regulating potential at the river basin scale?

The proposed approach is based on coupling two hydrological models: Watneeds, an agro-hydrological model that estimates daily soil moisture based on agricultural water demand, and Mobidic, a fully distributed rainfall-runoff model. Mobidic uses the soil moisture conditions derived from Watneeds as the initial state to simulate flood hazards during extreme storm events.

The methodology is applied in the upper Ombrone Grossetano river basin (Tuscany, Central Italy), where agricultural land constitutes a great part of the river basin area. The study used gridded datasets and ground observations for model calibration and analysis. Specifically, the Chirps dataset was bias corrected using ground observations and supported hydrological balance calculations in Watneeds. In contrast, rain gauge data from the Regional Hydrological Service were used to perform frequency analyses of extreme rainfall events and derive the rainfall quantiles modelled in Mobidic.

The results reveal that different crops produce distinct soil moisture conditions under identical weather patterns, influencing flood hazards in varying ways. FRES show a seasonality, with the maximum value at the end of the growing season, especially for the tributaries of the river with an area generally less than 60 km2. The FRES supplied by the agroecosystem each month is compared with the FRES demand, i.e. the monthly average peak discharge. The results demonstrate that agricultural practices and crop scenarios can result in diverse flood responses depending on the season, offering valuable insights for flood risk management in small agricultural river basins. They suggest that policies governing crop selection, irrigation schedules, and crop calendars should also consider their potential impacts on flood regulation.

This research is part of the FLORAES project, funded by the Premio Florisa Melone 2023, an initiative by the Italian Hydrological Society to foster independent research and collaboration among young Italian hydrologists.

How to cite: Lompi, M., Galli, N., Caporali, E., and Rulli, M. C.: Evaluating the influence of crop seasonality on flood-regulating ecosystem services in small river basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16978, 2025.

EGU25-17560 | PICO | HS5.3.3

Impact Assessment of Land-use change on water resources using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) 

Navneet Kumar, Bernhard Tischbein, and Stefan Schneiderbauer

Land-use change significantly impacts water balance components by altering the distribution and movement of water within a basin. The Upper Kharun Catchment (UKC) in India represents an area with significant recent land-use changes, namely by substantial population growth, urban expansion, industrialization, and changes in irrigation practices such as extension and intensification. This study investigates the impact of such modifications in land-use on water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) exemplified in the UKC. Therefore, we produced and analyzed land use maps for the time periods of 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021. Our research findings indicate that the increasing amount of groundwater pumped for irrigation is the primary factor contributing to reduced groundwater flow into streams, which in turn leads to a decrease in discharge and overall water supply especially in drought periods. Conversely, annual surface runoff has significantly increased due to the expansion of built-up areas due to surface sealing over the decades in the relevant parts of the study area. Comparing the effects at catchment and sub-catchment levels highlights the importance of choosing the appropriate spatial scale for water management activities. At the catchment scale, the impact of land-use change on the water balance is small because different effects, such as urbanization and the intensification of agriculture, tend to offset each other. However, at the sub-catchment level, where local land-use dynamics are more pronounced, the effects of land-use change become evident. The combination of remote sensing techniques and hydrological modeling has allowed for identifying hotspot areas with changes in land use, which significantly affect on the components of the water balance. These areas should be prioritized for enhanced modeling and monitoring as basis for the development of water management strategies that can mitigate negative impacts on the water balance and in turn on improving the livelihood of the population as well as towards conserving ecosystems’ functioning. However, it's important to view these sites not in isolation but as part of an integrated approach for coordinated water management throughout the entire basin.

How to cite: Kumar, N., Tischbein, B., and Schneiderbauer, S.: Impact Assessment of Land-use change on water resources using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17560, 2025.

EGU25-20496 | PICO | HS5.3.3

Climate- and socio-economic resilient water governance - a model framework based on WEFE indicators 

Nicole Tatjana Scherer, Prof. Dr. Markus Disse, and Dr. Jingshui Huang

As a result of climate change, heatwaves, droughts and extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. These lead to drought damage in forests and crop failures, but also to erosion and flooding. In addition to climate change, changes to the landscape caused by humans (drainage, soil compaction and sealing) are also affecting the natural landscape water balance. This has a negative impact on people and ecosystems and can lead to competing demands and conflicts between different sectors.

A climate-resilient landscape water balance is essential for sustainable water resource management. The WEFE (Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem) nexus offers an integrated and coordinated approach across all sectors to reduce trade-offs and increase the efficiency of the entire system through synergies.

The overall objective of the study is to provide decision-makers with a planning framework to assess the impact of different adaptation measures on the WEFE sectors under climate change scenarios. The model framework is based on a system of indicators. The indicators themselves are derived from the results of the ecohydrological SWAT+ model and integrated into an assessment framework by the stakeholders through individual weighting.

The Upper Main catchment in Bavaria, Germany, is used as case study. The varying distribution of precipitation and the low storage capacity of the soils in some areas of the Upper Main region lead to scarce groundwater supplies. In particular, the consecutive dry years (2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022) had a negative impact on the water balance and led to falling groundwater levels, low water levels in streams and crop failures in agriculture. In contrast, the heavy rainfall in June 2024 led to flooding in some regions.

In order to investigate the landscape water balance of the Upper Main area, first a SWAT+ model is setup, calibrated and validated. The model results are then applied to quantify the indicators and evaluate the efficiency of adaptation measures on different WEFE sectors under consideration of climate change.

Furthermore, trade-offs and synergies between the different indicators are identified. The results can be used by decision-makers to develop concrete plans and strategies for sustainable and resilient water management under climate change scenarios.

How to cite: Scherer, N. T., Disse, P. Dr. M., and Huang, Dr. J.: Climate- and socio-economic resilient water governance - a model framework based on WEFE indicators, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20496, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20496, 2025.

EGU25-21033 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.3 | Highlight

Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Groundwater Resources for Agricultural Irrigation in Licata, Sicily 

Iolanda Borzì, Francesco Gregorio, Giovanni Randazzo, and Stefania Lanza

This study presents a hydrogeological assessment of the impacts of land use changes and climate variability on groundwater resources in the Licata plain, Sicily, with a particular focus on agricultural irrigation. We integrate long-term hydroclimatic data and current land use patterns to investigate the complex interactions between surface and subsurface water systems over recent decades.

The Licata plain is characterized by an unconfined to semi-confined alluvial aquifer developed in Quaternary deposits, which serves as a critical water source for local farmers. Using extensive rainfall records and streamflow data from the Imera River, we analyze long-term hydrological trends and their implications for groundwater recharge and availability for irrigation. High-resolution land use maps are utilized to assess the spatial distribution of agricultural activities and their influence on groundwater demand and local hydrology.

We integrate these datasets into a coupled surface-groundwater model to simulate hydrological processes and infer groundwater dynamics under changing land use and climate scenarios. The model is calibrated using available streamflow records and validated against limited piezometric data points.

The land use analysis identifies critical zones of agricultural intensification, highlighting areas of increased water demand and altered infiltration patterns. Our findings indicate that local farmers heavily rely on groundwater resources, especially during periods of drought or low rainfall, as evidenced by recent water scarcity events in Sicily.

This research provides a robust framework for assessing groundwater vulnerability in Mediterranean coastal aquifers subject to rapid land use transformation and climate uncertainty, with a specific focus on agricultural water use. Our findings offer valuable insights for water resource managers and policymakers in Licata, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies that consider both sustainable agricultural practices and climate resilience. Moreover, this study underscores the importance of establishing comprehensive groundwater monitoring networks to enhance future assessments and support informed decision-making for agricultural water management.

How to cite: Borzì, I., Gregorio, F., Randazzo, G., and Lanza, S.: Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Groundwater Resources for Agricultural Irrigation in Licata, Sicily, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21033, 2025.

Despite the global population exceeding eight billion, food production per capita is globally higher than ever. However, this achievement has led to significant environmental impacts, with agriculture being the largest sector contributing to the transgression of many planetary boundaries, including biogeochemical flows, biosphere integrity, land system changes, and freshwater changes. To move towards more sustainable food futures, several opportunities exist, such as reducing food loss, upcycling by-products into livestock and aquaculture feeds, implementing double cropping systems, and developing cultivated meat alternatives.
Here first a global overview of the multiple pressures agricultural practices apply on Earth systems is provided, with a focus on their impact on water and land resources, biodiversity, and nutrient pollution. The main emphasis is, however, to synthesize the potential of various interventions that could mitigate these pressures and promote sustainability. These insights are crucial for understanding the intricate links between land use, water systems, and food production,and for identifying effective and equitable future resource management strategies.

How to cite: Kummu, M.: Sustainable food futures: opportunities to alleviate pressure on Earth System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21686, 2025.

The signing of the Paris Agreement has significantly accelerated the growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. However, these energy sources are inherently reliant on meteorological conditions, resulting in intermittency, volatility, and limited predictability, which present challenges for their integration into the power grid. Developing a hydro-wind-solar complementary system, leveraging the flexible regulation capabilities of hydropower, offers a promising solution to these types of challenges.

Determining the optimal capacity of a hydro-wind-solar complementary system is crucial for fully utilizing the regulation potential of hydropower and maximizing the complementarity of diverse natural resources. However, current capacity planning research focuses primarily on technical and economic metrics at the power generation level, often neglecting the comprehensive benefits related to reservoir ecology and water supply. Moreover, the current approach faces challenges in addressing complex multi-objective problems effectively.

To solve the above issues, this study proposes a novel framework based on the theory of synergetics to determine the optimal capacities for wind and solar power. Synergetics is an interdisciplinary approach that examines how individual components of a complex system interact and self-organize to achieve optimal performance and stability. When it comes to the proposed double-layer framework, an inner layer operation model aims at maximizing overall order degree is established to optimize the system's operational performance. Secondly, Kolmogorov entropy is introduced in the outer layer to characterize the synergy of different wind and solar capacity schemes, thereby selecting the one with the best synergistic effect. Additionally, techno-economic evaluation indicators are introduced to validate the framework's effectiveness. A case study of the clean energy system with cascaded reservoirs on the upper Yellow River was conducted, and the results indicate that:

(1) The proposed framework effectively meets the requirements of multiple complex objectives, and the optimal capacity scheme performs well in both economic and technical aspects.

(2) Compared to variations in wind and solar resources, inflow conditions and agricultural water demand have a greater impact on capacity planning and operational performance.

(3) The optimal capacity ratio of hydro to wind and solar in the upper Yellow River is around 1:0.59.

Considering the above, this study provides important theoretical support for expanding capacity planning methods in hybrid energy systems that rely on the dispatchable nature of hydropower.

How to cite: Cui, Y. and Jurasz, J.: Optimizing Hydro-Wind-Solar Systems for Synergy: A Multi-Objective Framework Balancing Ecology, Generation, and Water Supply, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-255, 2025.

This study evaluates the propagation of hydrological drought impacts on energy production using the multi-scalar Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) and Energy Drought Index (EDI) in a basin-scale hydropower context. The research focuses on analyzing short-term (SSFI3), medium-term (SSFI6), and long-term (SSFI12) indices through Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to identify temporal propagation patterns affecting normalized energy production. Hydrological and energy data from 1989 to 2024 were utilized to provide a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between drought conditions and hydropower generation. The results reveal strong correlations between short- and medium-term indices (SSFI3 and SSFI6) and energy production, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.63, respectively. This underscores the critical influence of short- and medium-term flow variability on hydropower systems. Long-term indices (SSFI12), while exhibiting a weaker correlation (0.52), offer valuable insights into the broader hydrological trends and their implications for climate-driven drought management. EDI analysis further highlights significant periods of drought and surplus, demonstrating the vulnerability of hydropower systems to prolonged drought conditions. Notably, post-2000 trends indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of drought events, emphasizing the pressing need for adaptive management strategies.

This study underscores the importance of integrating hydrological and energy data to develop robust water-energy management strategies. It highlights the necessity of continuous monitoring, early warning systems, and the diversification of renewable energy portfolios to mitigate the risks posed by evolving climate scenarios. These findings provide a critical framework for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of hydropower systems in the face of increasing drought propagation under climate change.

Questions of interest include:

  • How do short-, medium-, and long-term hydrological conditions affect hydropower generation?
  • How can Energy Drought Index (EDI) and SSFI metrics enhance the understanding of hydropower vulnerabilities?
  • What strategies can mitigate the increasing risks of drought propagation under evolving climate scenarios?
  • How can integrated water-energy management improve resilience and sustainability in hydropower systems?

How to cite: Demirel, I. H.: Impact of Energy Drought on Basin-Scale Hydropower Systems in the Context of Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3438, 2025.

EGU25-4969 | PICO | HS5.3.4 | Highlight

Continental and inter-continental complementarity of solar-wind and hydropower 

Anders Wörman and Sören Palm

Weather and climate fluctuations cause significant variations in renewable electricity production, necessitating substantial energy storage to address energy drought periods. To meet this need, renewable electricity systems rely on a relatively small share of hydropower storage to regulate climate-induced variability. Using daily hydroclimatic data and information about renewable power systems across Europe and Africa, we quantify the complementarity of solar, wind, and hydropower energy components within the continental climate systems.

Our findings reveal that existing hydropower reservoirs in Europe provide sufficient energy storage to overcome energy drought periods, but only under specific conditions: renewable electricity production must incorporate appropriate shares of wind and solar power, and the production-demand system must be managed at a continental scale. Spatiotemporal coordination of solar, wind, and hydropower can achieve a virtual energy storage gain (VESG) several times greater than the capacity of existing hydropower reservoirs. The most significant benefits from such management occur over distances of 1,200–3,000 km, underscoring the importance of continental- and intercontinental-scale planning for future renewable energy systems.

Since Africa’s current electricity generation is only one-fourth of Europe’s, we analyzed inter-hemispheric complementarity between the continents under various scenarios for hydropower, solar, and wind power development. The intercontinental complementarity offers the potential for even greater VESG and represents a critical factor for designing future renewable energy systems. Such designs must optimize between multiple considerations, including also the localization of power plants, transmission needs, and environmental constraints.

How to cite: Wörman, A. and Palm, S.: Continental and inter-continental complementarity of solar-wind and hydropower, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4969, 2025.

EGU25-5166 | PICO | HS5.3.4

Tidal Energy Potential in the San Francisco Bay 

Gaurav Savant

The tidal energy resource in the San Francisco Bay (USA) is investigated using of high-resolution numerical modelling and spatial analysis. The system is analyzed for tidal energy potential under various conditions including low, mean, average and high freshwater inflows. The study approached the problem using high resolution numerical modeling that followed a robust moel validation effort and demonstrated the applicability of  numerical modelling  for identifying the most appropriate areas for tidal stream energy conversion. Future work will incorporate the effects of tidal energy converters on the circulation regime within the san Francisco Bay Estuary and the quantification of ecological impacts.

How to cite: Savant, G.: Tidal Energy Potential in the San Francisco Bay, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5166, 2025.

Northern landscapes like the Arctic regions of Northern Europe, Canada and Iceland, are especially susceptible to the effects of climate change, considering accelerated glacial melt due to increased temperatures. Glacier melt will inevitably change the runoff regimes of northern catchments, with increased streamflow in the near future. This increases flooding hazards but also bears economic opportunity with increased hydropower potential.

This study examines the future hydrological dynamics of the Hálslón catchment in eastern Iceland, focusing on the impacts of climate change on streamflow and hydroelectric potential. 70% of the 1’615 km² catchment are covered by Vatnajökull, Europe’s largest glacier. The catchment drains into the Hálslón reservoir, the main lake of the Kárahnjúkar Hydropower Plant system, a 690 MW facility that produces nearly a quarter of Iceland's electricity.

Using the semi-distributed HBV-Light hydrological model, we performed 10,000 automatic Monte-Carlo calibration runs with a multi-objective approach, optimizing both discharge and glacier mass balance. Future streamflow scenarios were simulated for 2015–2100 using 12 climate models, three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), and the 10 best parameter sets derived from calibration to address uncertainties.

Preliminary results indicate a potential doubling of annual inflow to the Hálslón reservoir by the end of the century, driven by intense glacier melt and changing precipitation patterns. This excess flow, currently unutilized and discharged via spillways, represents significant untapped hydroelectric potential. At present, excess flow accounts for up to 20% of yearly inflow but could rise to over 50% by century’s end, according to modeling projections. The substantial increase in streamflow underscores the need for adaptive management strategies to optimize Iceland's hydroelectric infrastructure, leveraging emerging opportunities for renewable energy production. This research demonstrates the integration of hydrological and climatic models to evaluate the impacts of environmental change on vital water resources.

How to cite: Heger, A., Molnar, P., and Finger, D. C.: Opportunities for hydropower under climate change in snow-ice dominated landscapes: case of the Hálslón Catchment Kárahnjúkar Hydropower Plant in eastern Iceland , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6596, 2025.

EGU25-6715 | PICO | HS5.3.4

Greenhouse gas emissions from Hydropower: Challenges and Opportunities review 

Manu Seth, Maria Ubierna Aparicio, Cristina Diez Santos, Branka Nakomcic-Smargdakis, Maja Brboric, Elisa Calamita, and Tina Dasic

Hydropower is a renewable energy source critical for balancing the electricity grid and integrating variable wind and solar energy. However, its clean energy credentials are increasingly scrutinised due to its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly methane—a potent GHG. While some reservoirs act as carbon sinks, others are significant emission sources. Accurately quantifying and addressing these emissions is essential to ensure hydropower’s role as a low-carbon energy source and to mitigate the climate-finance risks associated with reservoir emissions.

This paper critically analyzes existing methodologies for estimating hydropower-related GHG emissions, including direct field measurements, empirical and machine learning (ML) models, and simplified emission factors. These methods vary in their strengths, limitations, and uncertainties, with emissions being highly site-specific and influenced by climatic conditions, reservoir characteristics, water quality, and operational practices.

The analysis highlights how ML and hybrid modeling approaches can improve accuracy, providing more dynamic and scalable predictions of GHG emissions. These advancements enable the identification of high-emission reservoirs and inform the development of targeted mitigation strategies.

By advancing the understanding of hydropower emissions, this research supports the sustainable integration of hydropower into the energy mix, ensuring it displaces fossil fuel generation while maintaining its low-carbon status. Additionally, it provides actionable insights for policymakers to design strategies that promote low-carbon hydropower development, aligning with broader climate objectives.

 

How to cite: Seth, M., Aparicio, M. U., Santos, C. D., Nakomcic-Smargdakis, B., Brboric, M., Calamita, E., and Dasic, T.: Greenhouse gas emissions from Hydropower: Challenges and Opportunities review, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6715, 2025.

In recent years, hydropower has rapidly developed as an efficient and clean peak-shaving energy source to accommodate the large-scale integration of wind and solar power. However, the operations of upstream hydropower plants significantly alter inflow processes for downstream plants. For daily regulation hydropower plants, the limited regulation capacity amplifies the impact of inflow variability on power generation efficiency. Thus, adjustments to the operational scheduling of such plants are urgently required. This study proposes a research framework to quantify the influence of upstream hydropower plants on downstream daily regulation plants and to establish operational scheduling rules in response. Firstly, a flow routing model is developed to simulate both dynamic and diffusion waves in river flow propagation. Secondly, a two-stage short-term peak-shaving scheduling model is constructed by integrating the flow routing model with the daily peak-shaving operations of hydropower plants. A dynamic control strategy for the initial and final water levels is innovatively incorporated into the scheduling model. Finally, the Alpha shapes algorithm is used to derive operational scheduling rules for daily regulation hydropower plants. Taking the upstream cascade hydropower stations of the Han River as an example, the study concludes that newly constructed hydropower plants shorten the flow routing time between existing cascade plants. Coordinating peaking times reduces water level fluctuations and boosts downstream plants’ power generation. When the full generation discharge of upstream plants exceeds that of downstream plants, the multi-year average power generation of downstream plants decreases. Additionally, specific scheduling rules are established for downstream daily regulation hydropower plants to mitigate the impacts of upstream operations. These results provide scientific decision support for operators of downstream hydropower plants affected by upstream reservoir construction and can be extended to similar hydropower systems worldwide.

 

How to cite: Wang, Y., Zhang, J., Guo, A., and Niu, C.: Quantitative analysis and operation strategies for daily-regulation hydropower plants impacted by upstream plant, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10191, 2025.

Large-scale hydro-wind-solar complementary systems (HWSCSs) present a promising approach for integrating variable wind and solar power through the flexibility of hydro units and the storage capacity of reservoirs. These hybrid renewable energy systems, driven by climatological variables, are highly sensitive to climate change and may encounter periods of significantly reduced energy production. Such periods, termed "energy droughts," occur when energy generation falls below load demand or a prespecified threshold, posing critical challenges to system reliability and energy security. However, how energy droughts in HWSCSs will evolve under climate change and how to mitigate such events through strategic operations remain unexplored. Thus, this study proposes a generic framework for evaluating and mitigating energy droughts in HWSCSs under climate change. First, specific metrics for assessing energy droughts in HWSCSs are developed. Next, an adaptive operating rule for mitigating energy droughts is proposed and validated in both historical and projected future climate scenarios. A large-scale HWSCS in southwest China is selected as a case study. The results show robust improvements in reducing the frequency, duration, and severity of energy droughts across various climate scenarios. This study provides valuable insights for the sustainable management of HWSCSs in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Cheng, Q. and Liu, P.: Adaptive operating rules for mitigating energy droughts in large-scale hydro-wind-solar complementary systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10266, 2025.

EGU25-11376 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.4

Development of a new simplified algorithm facilitating GIS-based preliminary planning of small hydropower plants 

Xenofon Soulis, Konstantinos Soulis, Sarantopoulou Vasiliki-Eleftheria, and Georgios Tsekouras

With the increasing promotion of renewable energy sources, hydropower is expected to play a crucial role in energy storage and grid balancing, supplementing intermittent solar and wind power. However, the complex topography and variability of design parameters often lead to underutilization of small hydropower potential or sub-optimal designs. This study presents a new simplified algorithm for GIS-based positioning optimization and preliminary planning of small hydropower plants.

The practical problem addressed with this algorithm is that during the preliminary design phase of a small run-of-river hydropower plant, the designers are required to preselect, along a given river, the water intake point, the location of the power generation station, and the tailrace discharge point back to the river, as well as the conduit route between the intake and the station. The latter is quite complex, as it may consist of a section of open channel and the remaining section of closed conduit (penstock). The open channel is significantly cheaper than the penstock, but it needs to practically follow the contour line of the intake on suitable ground. The penstock does not have problems with steep slopes, but it is generally much more expensive per unit length than the open channel, especially if it is made of steel. At the same time, during the routing process, areas where pipelines are not allowed to pass must be excluded, e.g., natural reserve areas, or residential areas, or areas with intense geological phenomena. Simultaneously, the expected electricity production and the cost for each candidate design should be considered, in order to examine the technical and economic viability of the project.

Developed in Python within the QGIS environment, which is an open but well-established geographical information system software package, the algorithm operates in raster format and uses as input the digital terrain model, the flow direction and flow accumulation grids, the examined river reaches in raster format, characteristic discharge rate for each cell of the examined river, the open channel and the penstock cost per unit length in raster format. Areas where pipelines are not allowed to pass are designated with a very high unit length cost.

After reading the input data and initializing the required output raster data objects, the algorithm creates the lefthand and righthand contour lines for each upstream cell. Then it iterates between all the possible downstream cells for this upstream cell. For each upstream-downstream positions couple it iterates through all the possible combinations of open channel and penstock and creates a list with the combinations having the lower cost. For each optimal solution it stores all the characteristics in a list. After finalizing all the searches the algorithm sorts the list with the optimal solutions considering the produced energy/cost ratio.

While such algorithms typically exhibit O(n³) complexity, meaning that as the size of the area increases the computation time will become prohibiting, a key characteristic of the proposed algorithm is that includes novel search functions minimising the searched cells and required repetitions making the execution time reasonable in larger areas.

How to cite: Soulis, X., Soulis, K., Vasiliki-Eleftheria, S., and Tsekouras, G.: Development of a new simplified algorithm facilitating GIS-based preliminary planning of small hydropower plants, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11376, 2025.

Hydropower is a crucial renewable source reliant on water availability, making it vulnerable to climate change and hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts. Studying the connection between climate, streamflow, and hydropower generation is especially critical for hydro-dependent energy systems. However, analysing drought and climate change impacts on hydropower generation requires detailed data on both hydropower plant attributes (e.g. plant type and head) and reservoir characteristics (e.g. area, depth, and volume). Existing open-source datasets lack integration: hydropower plant datasets often lack reservoir information, while reservoir datasets frequently omit hydropower plant information.

To addresses this, we developed GloHydroRes, a new global dataset that combines existing open-source hydropower plant and reservoir datasets. GloHydroRes includes plant attributes (e.g., location, head, type) and reservoir details (e.g., dam and reservoir location, height, reservoir depth, area, volume) for 7,775 plants across 128 countries, covering 79% and 81% of the global installed capacity reported by the EIA (2022) and IRENA (2023), respectively.

Leveraging GloHydroRes, we developed a hybrid hydropower modelling framework that integrates physical model simulations with machine learning techniques to predict hydropower generation at plant level. Our validation results show that, the hybrid model outperforms the physical hydropower model. For instance, hybrid model results in 40% reduction in root mean squared error on average compared to the physical model across all plants.  

Our results reveal a significant reduction in hydropower generation during drought periods in regions worldwide, highlighting the vulnerability of hydropower systems to hydroclimatic extremes. By integrating detailed plant and reservoir data from GloHydroRes with physically-based and advanced machine learning methods, we enhance the accuracy of hydropower simulations while providing a valuable tool to support hydropower and water management and decision making within the water-energy nexus.

 

How to cite: Shah, J., Hu, J., Edelenbosch, O., and van Vliet, M.: Impact of Droughts on Hydropower Generation using a new Global Hydropower Plant and Reservoir dataset (GloHydroRes) and Hybrid Modelling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12135, 2025.

Hydropower plants are the primary source of renewable energy globally, but their performance and reliability naturally degrade over time due to aging equipment, changing environmental conditions, and shifts in operational demands. By 2030, nearly 20% of global hydropower turbines, totaling about 154 GW, will be over 55 years old, while in the United States, the average turbine age will exceed 60 years, leading to significant efficiency challenges.

Retrofitting aging hydropower plants is crucial for ensuring optimal performance and offers opportunities to improve the adaptability of these plants to changing conditions. Traditionally, retrofitting has relied on identical turbine replacements, with newer models replicating original designs optimized for the conditions at the time of construction. While these upgrades offer marginal efficiency gains, they fail to address evolving challenges, as original designs may become suboptimal in the face of a changing climate and evolving grid demands. Given that these turbines are expected to operate for 40 to 50 years in an increasingly uncertain future, adopting turbine designs optimized for future conditions presents a more effective solution. To guide this transition, a well-defined methodology is needed to determine when and how to upgrade turbines, ensuring optimal and sustainable outcomes.

This study addresses this need for large-scale hydropower upgrades by using a newly developed toolbox to determine optimal turbine replacement strategies under uncertain inflow, demand, and energy price scenarios. It combines multi-objective optimization and advanced simulations for detailed comparisons between existing and optimized turbine configurations. The optimization focuses on maximizing capacity during peak demand, enhancing energy generation across fluctuating reservoir levels, addressing risks and costs associated with aging turbines, and ensuring efficient operation under low-flow conditions to support environmental releases. The toolbox is applied to the Hoover Hydropower Plant (HPP) in the Colorado River Basin, which operates 17 Francis turbines installed in 1936. These turbines were initially replaced with identical models around 50 years later (1986–1993). However, by 2012–2015, declining reservoir levels made the original turbines inefficient, leading to the replacement of five turbines with lower-head models, a rare example of non-identical replacement to adapt to changing conditions.

Preliminary results from a retrospective analysis of Hoover HPP highlight the benefits of optimizing replacement strategies. Optimized configurations across multiple objectives generally recommend (1) earlier turbine replacements to reduce efficiency losses (2) lower-head turbines to accommodate fluctuating reservoir levels especially due to droughts, (3) require a lower number of turbine replacement overall while increasing annual energy generation.   

How to cite: Yildiz, V. and Zaniolo, M.: Retrofitting Reservoir-Based Hydropower Plants: Turbine Upgrades for Enhanced Efficiency and Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13500, 2025.

The flexibility of conventional hydropower stations and pumped storage power stations is regarded as a promising approach to integrating more intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power into the grid. However, directly implementing medium- and long-term operations of hydro-PV-pumped storage integrated energy bases (HPPEBs) is challenging due to the daily regulation capability of pumped storage power stations, an aspect that has been infrequently studied. To tackle this issue, a short-term operation model is developed to quantify power loss, including energy loss caused by the efficiency of pumped storage units and power curtailment due to load demand and channel capacity. Then, an accurate method for calculating power generation in HPPEBs during mid- and long-term operations is proposed, considering the short-term power loss patterns. A HPPEB located in the Lancang River Basin is selected as a case study. The results indicate that: (1) power generation is overestimated in the direct medium- and long-term operation, leading to higher water levels in the cascade reservoirs; (2) both energy loss of pumped storage and power curtailment exhibit a significant linear correlation with hydropower output, with coefficients of determination above 0.85 for each PV output range; (3) the proposed method can accurately calculate medium- and long-term power generation, with errors in total and daily power generation amounts of 0.06% and 1.22%, respectively, during the validation period. From the hydropower perspective, this study quantifies the short-term power loss patterns, providing a practical tool for the accurate mid- and long-term operation of HPPEBs.

How to cite: Liu, Z. and Liu, P.: Quantification and extraction of power loss patterns in hydro-photovoltaic-pumped storage integrated energy bases, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14368, 2025.

EGU25-15110 | PICO | HS5.3.4

Climate change impacts on reservoir operations and water availability – a case study from Drammen river basin in Norway  

Kolbjorn Engeland, Emiliano Gelati, Trine Jahr Hegdahl, Shaochun Huang, and Carl Andreas Veie

The society is adapted to the current seasonality and variations in water balance and water availability. In Norway more than 90% of the electricity production is based on hydropower, and to meet the energy demand, reservoirs are used to store water across seasons as runoff is generally lowest in winter when the energy demand is the highest. The aim for electricity production and operation of hydropower reservoirs is to maximize income for hydropower companies. The day-to-day decision of power production is based on energy demand, electricity prices and water availability. The main constraints for reservoir operations are minimum and maximum water levels as well as minimum flow requirements downstream. To make the best possible decisions for the future, hydrological models are used to provide expected runoff that is used by an energy marked model to suggest reservoir operations. A changing climate might result in changes in both annual runoff and seasonality of runoff, that might lead to changes in energy production and reservoir management.

Here, as part of the HorizonEurope project STARS4Water, we aim to assess how climate changes might impact reservoir operations and water stress in the Drammen River basin. This will be achieved by using two gridded hydrologic models (HBV and LISFLOOD) to simulate runoff for a reference period and a future period under downscaled climate scenarios. . Thereafter the energy marked model EOPS will be used to simulate reservoir operations for the two climate periods assuming that the electricity prices are unchanged. EOPS is used for sub-areas or river basins, has a detailed representation of the hydropower system, and requires reservoir inflows and energy prices as inputs. When prioritizing between the different constraints, the strongest ones are the minimum and maximum water levels in the reservoirs. During droughts, EOPS might deliver less water than required for environmental flows to avoid violating other requirements or limitations.

To assess climate change impacts, the changes in reservoir inflow, water levels and periods with water stress (i.e. the minimum flow requirements are not met) and full reservoirs that might increase flood risk, will be compared.  

How to cite: Engeland, K., Gelati, E., Hegdahl, T. J., Huang, S., and Veie, C. A.: Climate change impacts on reservoir operations and water availability – a case study from Drammen river basin in Norway , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15110, 2025.

EGU25-15541 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.4

Temporal dynamics of short-term regulation in run-of-river hydropower cascades 

Christine Kaggwa Nakigudde, Epari Ritesh Patro, and Ali Torabi Haghighi

Hydrological alterations caused by hydropower dams significantly impact river ecosystems. In Nordic rivers where regulation of rivers for hydropower dominates flow alterations, the hydropower operations often introduce more frequent flow fluctuations directly linked to energy demand. In cascaded run-of-river hydropower plants (ROR-HPPs), upstream regulation directly affects downstream flow characteristics, leading to complex interactions between upstream and downstream regulation dynamics. Although free-flowing tributaries downstream of the hydropower plants dampen the flow pulsations due to regulation, cascading ROR-HPPs amplify the hydrological alterations in the regulated river. This study investigates the temporal dynamics of hydrological alterations in cascaded ROR-HPPs, analysing the interdependencies between upstream flow regulation and downstream flow patterns. Through hydrological modelling and flow routing, the study examines the downstream propagation of regulated flows from one hydropower plant to another in a cascade, and the changes in hydrological alterations introduced by the successive ROR-HPPs. By analysing the temporal dynamics of flow regulation between hydropower dams in a cascade, the study highlights the need for integrated hydropower management strategies that account for cascading effects and balancing energy production with ecological sustainability.

How to cite: Nakigudde, C. K., Patro, E. R., and Haghighi, A. T.: Temporal dynamics of short-term regulation in run-of-river hydropower cascades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15541, 2025.

EGU25-16202 | ECS | PICO | HS5.3.4

Addressing the Water-Energy Nexus: Renewable Energy Harvesting for Enhanced Monitoring and Sustainability in Water Networks 

Bethany Bronkema, Bjarnhedinn Gudlaugsson, David Bermejo, Xavier Escaler, and David C. Finger

As climate change exacerbates the frequency of extreme weather events, urban water distribution networks face increased challenges. This paper investigates the water-energy nexus and the potential for energy harvesting in European water systems to address these challenges. The study focuses on vortex-induced vibrations (VIV) technology to recover energy from water flow, powering monitoring sensors and early warning systems. We analyzed data from case studies in several European cities, including Barcelona, Verona, Izmir, Ferlach, Ivancice, Rangárvellir, and Turin, to identify velocity profiles and energy recovery potential. A comprehensive database was created – including velocity, pressure, and temperature data from these networks – and used to model optimal energy harvesting conditions. Capacity factors, power outputs, and intermittency indicators were calculated to assess energy harvester feasibility. The results reveal that energy recovery potential varies significantly between different network types. For instance, drinking water networks in cities like Barcelona and Verona exhibit daily fluctuations – lower velocities at night – while district heating systems like those in Rangárvellir are more stable. The most promising case studies, such as Izmir and Ferlach, demonstrate higher energy outputs, with estimated productions ranging from 45 kWh to 6550 kWh over 20 years. Energy harvesting in water networks provides a sustainable solution to power remote sensors and early warning systems, improving resilience to climate-related events. We conclude that energy recovery in water networks could generate significant energy, offering a practical approach to enhance climate adaptation and resource management. 

How to cite: Bronkema, B., Gudlaugsson, B., Bermejo, D., Escaler, X., and Finger, D. C.: Addressing the Water-Energy Nexus: Renewable Energy Harvesting for Enhanced Monitoring and Sustainability in Water Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16202, 2025.

HS5.4 – Urban Water Management

This research explores the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a sustainable urban planning tool for flood management in the Gampaha District of Sri Lanka. It addresses the challenges posed by rapid urbanisation and increased flood vulnerability, where traditional approaches have proven inadequate in the face of complex urban development patterns and climate change impacts. While previous research has established GIS's potential in flood risk assessment and management, its application for sustainable urban planning and flood management in Gampaha District remains underexplored. This study aims to fill this gap by demonstrating GIS's effectiveness in enhancing flood management practices in the area. The research employs a mixed methods approach within a case study strategy, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. Data collection relies on secondary sources. Analysis methods include thematic, content, and GIS-based spatial analysis using ArcGIS Pro software. Key findings reveal a strong correlation between urbanisation patterns and increased flood events in Gampaha District. The study identifies specific flood management challenges, including inadequate drainage infrastructure, encroachment on flood plains, and geographical and environmental vulnerabilities. GIS analysis provides detailed flood risk mapping with a model and identifies optimal locations for sustainable infrastructure development using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by offering a model that integrates GIS tools for mapping, risk assessment, and strategic planning to mitigate flood risks in rapidly urbanising areas. It provides evidence-based recommendations for enhancing flood resilience through sustainable urban planning practices such as wetland restoration, permeable pavements, rain gardens, urban forests, and floodwater pumping stations. Future work involves longitudinal studies and real-time data integration for more dynamic flood management strategies with system thinking approaches.

Key Words: Urbanisation, Flood Management, GIS, Urban Planning, and Sustainability

How to cite: Arambegedara, C. and Nwankwo, N.: Application of GIS as a Sustainable Urban Planning Tool for Flood Management: A Case Study of Gampaha District, Sri Lanka, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2, 2025.

Urban flooding poses a significant challenge in high-density urban landscapes (HDULs), exacerbated by rapid urbanization, limited permeable surfaces, and climate change. Nature-based solutions (NBS) have emerged as a promising alternative to conventional grey infrastructure, offering multifunctional benefits for flood risk reduction, ecosystem restoration, and urban resilience. This study proposes a comprehensive framework integrating spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weighting (EW) methods to assess exposure, vulnerability, and adaptability factors influencing flood risks in Shenzhen, China. The study identifies key priority areas for NBS implementation and evaluates four NBS schemes based on their technical feasibility and spatial suitability. Results reveal that indices such as river network density (26.6%) and impervious surface percentage (26.5%) significantly influence exposure, while cultural heritage (31.2%) and emergency shelters (58.0%) dominate vulnerability and adaptability assessments, respectively. The prioritization map highlights critical zones requiring immediate intervention, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies addressing urban planning and socio-cultural dimensions. This research provides actionable insights for urban policymakers and planners, underscoring the transformative potential of NBS in mitigating urban flood risks and advancing sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Zhao, J. and Wang, M.: Strategic Deployment of Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Flood Management in High-Density Urban Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-323, 2025.

EGU25-1074 | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Hybrid Green Roof System Combining Constructed Wetland and Semi-intensive Green Roof: Experimental and Numerical Study 

Razbar Wahab, Michal Snehota, and Marek Petreje

Water scarcity and the growing need for sustainable urban water management demand innovative solutions to recycle and reuse greywater. This study explores a hybrid green roof system that integrates constructed wetlands and green roofs, enabling onsite water treatment and irrigation. This nature-based solution proposed, and recently experimentally tested by Petreje et al. (2023) additionally incorporates sustainable materials, such as recycled crushed bricks and pyrolyzed sewage sludge for increased circularity.  An extensive numerical study was done to enhance understanding of the system’s water flow and solute transport dynamics with aim to enhance and optimize the system potential in different configurations, irrigation schemes, and different climates.

The constructed wetland component was modeled using numerical modeling. First-order kinetics was assumed for BOD5 degradation, while the green roof component was modelled using HYDRUS-2D utilizing  Richards' equation for water flow and the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) for solute transport. Input data included daily irrigation schedules, meteorological conditions, and measured outflow data from an existing experimental testbed. Validation of the model against measured outflow data demonstrated its reliability in replicating the behavior of the hybrid green roof system. Simulations further revealed that water predominantly flows through the green roof's bottom layer, which consists of mineral wool, highlighting the importance of this layer in directing water flow.

The numerical study was conducted for a number of scenarios defined by system size, irrigation schedule, and two types of climate (temperate and semi-arid). For selected scenarios, the sensitivity analysis of the model to parameters of the system (substrate and drainage depth, irrigation dose, and frequency) as well as characteristics of the porous media was conducted.

The outcome of the numerical study provides critical insights for optimizing hybrid green roof systems, including recommendations for ideal irrigation scenarios and appropriate size ratios between constructed wetlands and green roofs. By advancing the understanding of water flow and solute transport in integrated systems, this research supports the development of sustainable, scalable solutions for urban water recycling and improved green infrastructure.

How to cite: Wahab, R., Snehota, M., and Petreje, M.: Hybrid Green Roof System Combining Constructed Wetland and Semi-intensive Green Roof: Experimental and Numerical Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1074, 2025.

EGU25-2687 | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Application Directions of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for Improving Urban Water Circulation Issues: A Case Study of Seoul and Bogotá 

Yoonkyung Park, Reeho Kim, Jongpyo Park, Sang-Leen Yun, Sang-Jong Han, and Weon-Jae Kim

Changes in rainfall patterns, precipitation volumes, and the occurrence of droughts, while seemingly straightforward manifestations of climate change, have profound implications for water resource management and environmental sustainability. These changes contribute to increased pollutant loads entering river systems, heightened flood risks, and exacerbated water shortages, all of which are intricately linked to urban water circulation systems. Addressing these challenges necessitates significant investments in human resources and financial capital, with Nature-based Solutions (NbS) emerging as a key strategy to establish resilient and sustainable urban water environments. In Seoul, efforts to enhance water circulation incorporate NbS principles, exemplified by the implementation of a Low Impact Development (LID) pre-consultation system that integrates water circulation considerations into urban planning. Additional initiatives, such as the establishment of rainwater villages and the expansion of rainwater management infrastructure, further contribute to the creation of a sustainable and adaptive urban water environment. Globally, similar efforts are being advanced through NbS frameworks. A recent study in Bogotá, Colombia, sought to establish a water circulation model that integrates NbS to address the city’s unique challenges, including steep topography, high population density, and the climatic shifts driven by global climate change. The study developed a dual-perspective management model that incorporates NbS to manage routine rainwater effectively while mitigating flood risks in urban river systems. Building upon these diverse case studies, this research underscores the potential of NbS in fostering sustainable and resilient water circulation systems in urban areas. By leveraging NbS, actionable insights can be provided to improve the quality and sustainability of urban water environments in the context of climate change.

 

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Technology development project to optimize planning, operation, and maintenance of urban flood control facilities, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE) (RS-2024-00332378)

How to cite: Park, Y., Kim, R., Park, J., Yun, S.-L., Han, S.-J., and Kim, W.-J.: Application Directions of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for Improving Urban Water Circulation Issues: A Case Study of Seoul and Bogotá, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2687, 2025.

EGU25-2754 | Orals | HS5.4.1

Quantifying the stormwater runoff reduction potential of two distinct urban tree species 

Mark Bryan Alivio, Nejc Bezak, Mojca Šraj, and Matej Radinja

Urban trees are essential components of urban greening efforts and in the concept of “sponge cities”, providing a multitude of ecosystem services. In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the practical contribution of trees to stormwater management in cities. However, the representation of trees in most conventional urban stormwater models remains inadequate. Often, these models implicitly lump specific parameters of tree species as part of the general vegetation categories or pervious accounting processes. In this study, we utilized the updated SWMM tree canopy module to model and evaluate the stormwater runoff reduction potential of birch (Betula pendula Roth.) and pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) trees in three scenarios (i.e., birch, pine, mixed-species planting) on a storm event basis. The model allows for the definition of individual trees, as the added canopy module introduces several key parameters to characterize different tree species. Modelling results demonstrated that the interception routine implemented in the updated SWMM model effectively captured the temporal evolution of throughfall + stemflow (Tf + Sf) under both trees in different phenoseasons. There is also a strong correlation between the simulated and observed throughfall (r = 0.97-0.99) and interception values (r = 0.72) across all storm events. The model tends to overestimate Tf + Sf, particularly for the pine tree, resulting in an underestimation of canopy interception by 3.1% for the birch and 19.6% for the pine. Thus, the reduction in runoff volume and peak flow across all scenarios and phenoseasons in an event-based is between 20-25% and 16-25%, respectively. The mixed-species tree planting scenario performed better in reducing both runoff volume and peak flow than the single-species scenarios. However, the stormwater reduction efficiency of both trees becomes limited during intense, high-volume storm events, but they continue to provide tangible benefits. Water balance analysis further emphasizes the relative contribution of canopy interception in the stormwater runoff reduction benefits of urban trees, particularly during the leafed season, small to moderate storm events, and when trees are in directly connected impervious areas. This underscores the importance of considering rainfall interception as a critical hydrological process, especially when modeling nature-based solutions in urban environments. Moreover, infiltration and storage in the soil play a dominant mechanism in managing net rainfall under the tree canopy before it contributes to runoff, accounting for over 20% of the water balance. Importantly, the findings from our study offer valuable insights and guidance for urban planners and stormwater engineers on appropriately crediting the stormwater reduction benefits of urban trees within urban planning frameworks and policy development. 

 

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the P2-0180 research program through the Ph.D. grant to the first author, which is financially supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (ARIS). Moreover, this study was also carried out within the scope of the ongoing research projects J6-4628, J2-4489, and N2-0313 supported by the ARIS and SpongeScapes project (Grant Agreement ID No. 101112738) and NATURE-DEMO (Grant Agreement ID No. 101157448), which is supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme.

How to cite: Alivio, M. B., Bezak, N., Šraj, M., and Radinja, M.: Quantifying the stormwater runoff reduction potential of two distinct urban tree species, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2754, 2025.

EGU25-2852 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

Wet soil sinks heat: spatial planning of irrigated trees to address heat vulnerabilities 

Lucas Gobatti, Peter Marcus Bach, Max Maurer, and João Paulo Leitão

Urban populations face increasing heat hazards driven by urbanisation and climate change, with the impacts disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups—those with greater sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity. Urban trees can offer a practical climate adaptation strategy, mitigating heat through evaporative cooling and shade mechanisms while providing outdoor heat relief for at-risk populations. In previous research, we employed ENVI-met microclimate and WRF mesoclimate models to explore how soil moisture, built environment, and tree patch sizes affect human thermal comfort under average and extreme summer conditions in Zurich, Switzerland. Building on this work, we now present a replicable framework for global application to optimise urban tree planting locations by creating a spatial score for planting priority. The framework combines opportunities mapping, identifying areas with higher rainfall runoff or reuse water availability for irrigation, with challenges mapping, targeting zones of heightened heat vulnerability. Our work emphasises the role of water resources and the limitations of passive cooling in urban climate adaptation, while offering actionable tools for urban planners and green space managers to enhance thermal comfort for those most at risk from heat-related hazards.

How to cite: Gobatti, L., Marcus Bach, P., Maurer, M., and Leitão, J. P.: Wet soil sinks heat: spatial planning of irrigated trees to address heat vulnerabilities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2852, 2025.

EGU25-3656 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

Life Cycle Cost Analysis and Resilience Evaluation for LID Implementation in Urban Drainage Systems using SWMM 

Osheen Osheen, Jorge Gironás, Mitthan Lal Kansal, and Deepak Singh Bisht

Urban flooding poses a growing challenge, intensified by rapid urbanization and climate change, which strains traditional drainage systems. This study investigates the application of Low Impact Development (LID) techniques as a sustainable solution to enhance urban drainage system resilience. Using Gurugram, India, as a case study, the research evaluates the functional and structural resilience improvements achieved through LID implementation, alongside a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis to assess cost-effectiveness.

LID Performance Index (LPI) was employed to quantify the functional resilience – a  measure of system resilience under varying scenarios of urbanization and increased rainfall intensities. Structural resilience was analyzed by assessing reductions in vulnerable locations through one-at-a-time failure simulations. To effectively integrate the green roofs and rain gardens in the runoff management, the subcatchments with substantial impervious area and high runoff volume were designated as the potential subcatchments for LIDs’ application. The study examines four LID implementation scenarios, incorporating green roofs and rain gardens into 10% (S1), 25% (S2), 50% (S3), and 100% (S4) potential subcatchments.

The finding reveals that incorporating LIDs into 10% of potential subcatchments (Scenario S1) enhances functional resilience by 21% and reduces vulnerable nodes by 8.7%. The corresponding Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) for Scenario S1 is 2.05 under a 5-year return period design storm, indicating its cost-effectiveness. While increasing LID coverage improves resilience, the cost-effectiveness diminishes due to higher implementation costs.

The LCC analysis incorporates construction, maintenance, and salvage costs to evaluate the economic viability of LID practices. It highlights that LIDs are particularly effective for moderate storm events, with a noticeable decrease in effectiveness for extreme storms with higher return periods. The findings underscore the limitations of relying solely on LIDs for stormwater management, advocating for their integration with conventional drainage systems to address extreme scenarios effectively.

The insights provided in study are valuable for urban planners, engineers, and policymakers aiming to develop sustainable and resilient urban drainage systems capable of mitigating urban flooding impacts.

How to cite: Osheen, O., Gironás, J., Kansal, M. L., and Bisht, D. S.: Life Cycle Cost Analysis and Resilience Evaluation for LID Implementation in Urban Drainage Systems using SWMM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3656, 2025.

EGU25-5050 | Orals | HS5.4.1

Land use impacts on microclimate regulation in Vilnius (Lithuania) 

Paulo Pereira, Luis Pinto, Egle Baltranaite, Eduardo Gomes, Miguel Inacio, and Damia Barcelo

Land use has important impacts on microclimate, especially in urban environments with complex morphology, and surface materials have different properties (e.g., colour or composition, natural/anthropogenic). Mapping microclimate regulation in urban areas is challenging since it can change over short distances. Therefore, high-resolution images are key to assessing it at a fine scale. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a good tool for collecting information in a detailed resolution under different meteorological conditions. In this work, we aim to map microclimate regulation in an area located in Vilnius, using a thermal UAV and land surface temperature as a proxy. The study site has an area of 104 ha. It comprises diverse land use (buildings, parking areas, equipment, roads, other paved areas, sidewalks and bike lines, construction sites, grassland and scrubland, agriculture, water and wetlands, trees and forests). Six UAV missions were conducted on July 10, 11, 14, 16, 18 and 19 of 2024, during a heat wave in Eastern Europe. The results showed statistically significant results (p<0.05) among days and land uses. The hottest days were July 11 and 16, and the coolest were July 14 and 19. Buildings and parking areas were the areas that showed the highest temperatures (>45 °C), while the lowest were identified in water and wetlands, trees and forests (<30 °C). As expected, urban green areas were the most efficient in regulating the microclimate. However, the differences between land uses were impressive for a small study area. On average, the amplitude between land uses was more than 15 °C, showing that surface type had an important impact on microclimate regulation. Even though heatwaves were not as common, frequent, and severe in this part of Europe as in the Mediterranean, this scenario has been changing in recent years, and the highest temperatures have been observed. The results obtained during this short study period showed that national and local authorities need to consider the risk of heatwaves and the implications on well-being in their plans. For this, improving urban green areas that can mitigate them is mandatory.

Acknowledgements

The work is supported by the project MApping and Forecasting Ecosystem Services in URban areas (MAFESUR), funded by the Lithuanian Research Council (Contract: Nr. P-MIP-23-426).    

How to cite: Pereira, P., Pinto, L., Baltranaite, E., Gomes, E., Inacio, M., and Barcelo, D.: Land use impacts on microclimate regulation in Vilnius (Lithuania), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5050, 2025.

EGU25-5606 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

2-D hydrological model application at Plot Scale for Evaluating Rain Garden Effectiveness in Flood Management 

Parisa Almasi, Francesco Bettella, and Vincenzo D'Agostino

Pluvial floods, recognized as one of the most significant threats in urban areas lead to risks in urban water management and cause extensive damage to infrastructures and properties. Due to climate change, European countries are anticipated to experience more frequent and severe flood events. Therefore, the implementation of appropriate measures for flood mitigation is essential. Rain gardens, a type of nature-based solution (NBS), are crucial strategies to support sustainable flood risk management. However, to assess long-term impacts in light of climate change and to guide the development and implementation of additional measures in the region, the application of modeling techniques is essential. A robust modeling approach provides valuable insights for decision-making and also helps stakeholders and practitioners evaluate strategies and design future measures. This study aims to compare different modeling approaches by using FLO-2D PRO to simulate the impact of rain gardens on surface runoff mitigation. To this end, inflow and outflow data collected at the plot scale were used to compare and evaluate the outcomes of the analyzed approaches. The findings have deepened the understanding of simulation techniques for these structures, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of different model implementations. This has enhanced the application of the model in this field, leading to more reliable results.

How to cite: Almasi, P., Bettella, F., and D'Agostino, V.: 2-D hydrological model application at Plot Scale for Evaluating Rain Garden Effectiveness in Flood Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5606, 2025.

Green infrastructure (GI) uses different plants to deliver various ecosystem services in urban environments. Among these services, pollution control is critical due to its association with disease spread. According to The World Health Organisation (WHO), Particulate Matter (PM) is a major threat to human health from air pollution. The most effective GI mitigation application is a vertical barrier positioned between the pollution sources and receptors. Selecting suitable plants for such barriers is essential, taking into account that most of the PM occurs during winter from wood-burning heating systems.

Bryophytes, or mosses, are evergreen plants and have a high capacity for air pollution absorption due to their morphology. To identify the most effective moss species for PM absorption, a laboratory experiment was conducted at the Laboratory of the Physics and Chemistry of Environment and Space in Orleans (LPC2E-CNRS), France under the supervision of Dr. Jean-Baptsite Renard. A custom-engineered air pollution chamber was built with a vertical GI barrier inside to measure PM absorption before and after the barrier. Pollutant transport was simulated by the traction of an installed fan within the chamber. Results from the Pollutrack sensors revealed an average PM absorption efficiency of 40% for PM2.5 and 46% for PM10 based on 26 experiments using moss species Dicranum scoparium, Plagiomnium affine, and Hypnum cupressiforme. These results represent the optimal absorption capacity of mosses under controlled laboratory conditions, accounting for limitations such as humidity, air pressure, and temperature in the laboratory. This research demonstrates that mosses are a highly effective choice for the GI with a significant PM absorption potential. Further studies in real urban environments are recommended to validate these findings.

How to cite: Karklina, J. and Karklins, E.: Utilization of Mosses in Green Infrastructure for Mitigating Particulate Matter Air Pollution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6445, 2025.

EGU25-6641 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Identifying opportunity areas for catchment-based interventions to reduce runoff contributions from permeable surfaces to combined sewer overflows (CSOs) 

Mandy Robinson, Jessica Kitch, Benjamin Jackson, Marwa Waly, Zhangjie Peng, Diego Panici, and Richard Brazier

Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) are relief valves built into urban combined sewer systems to prevent sewer flooding during extreme rainfall events. In recent years, it has been recognised that they are spilling far too frequently, causing significant pollution events on a regular basis. In England and Wales, the Storm Overflows Discharge Reduction Plan has set strict targets and requires huge changes in the water industry to reduce the environmental impacts of CSOs and the frequency of spills.

Green infrastructure and Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as valuable tools for mitigating CSO spills while offering additional environmental benefits compared to traditional grey infrastructure or conventional (typically capital intensive) engineering solutions. Whilst much of the focus has been on reducing impermeable inputs to sewers through urban SuDS (Sustainable Drainage Systems) or using wetlands to treat CSO spills, much less attention has been given to the potential for catchment-based solutions or NbS to reduce rural or green space runoff entering the combined sewers on the urban fringe. There is therefore a major knowledge gap in understanding where surface water from permeable surfaces could be entering the combined sewers and consequently where NbS could be applied to mitigate the problem of CSOs.

This study presents a workflow for identifying opportunity areas for catchment-based interventions or NbS to reduce rural or green space runoff contributions to combined sewers. The methodology involves GIS-based (Geographical Information System) topographic analysis to delineate sub-catchments draining towards sections of impermeable surfaces (e.g. roads) that connect to combined sewers. As a proof of concept, this approach was applied to wastewater catchments in South West England. A key data source for our analysis is Impermeable Area Survey (IAS) or Contributing Area Survey (CAS) data that define where impermeable surfaces drain to (e.g. watercourses, soakaways or combined sewers). The level of opportunity within a wastewater catchment is highly dependent on the presence of road drains that connect to combined sewers being adjacent to and downslope of rural/green spaces.

The geospatial analysis results identify areas with topographic connectivity to the combined sewers. Next, desk and field-based surveys of potential opportunity areas can indicate runoff potential and whether there is true connectivity or whether there are barriers not represented in the digital elevation model (DEM).  Following the workflow, hydraulic modelling quantifies runoff contributions to CSO spill counts and volumes and the potential for field runoff mitigation through NbS. The level of potential opportunity varies greatly between wastewater catchments. In some cases, field runoff could be making a notable contribution to the volume and/or number of CSO spills. In one case study, modelling indicates that NbS could achieve approximately 45% to 80% reduction in spill volume and 30% to 60% reduction in spill duration depending on the field infiltration rate.

This approach has the potential to be used by water and sewerage companies to strategically identify opportunities to reduce rural and green space surface runoff inputs to combined sewers, through catchment-based solutions or NbS, ultimately helping to meet spill reduction targets and enhance environmental outcomes. 

How to cite: Robinson, M., Kitch, J., Jackson, B., Waly, M., Peng, Z., Panici, D., and Brazier, R.: Identifying opportunity areas for catchment-based interventions to reduce runoff contributions from permeable surfaces to combined sewer overflows (CSOs), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6641, 2025.

The increasing impacts of climate change pose significant challenges for urban watersheds, necessitating effective strategies for stormwater management. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff and nutrient loads in the Sweetwater Creek Watershed, employing an integrated approach combining climate modeling, hydrological simulations, and green infrastructure (GI) optimization. Utilizing downscaled and bias-corrected data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), we project future changes in precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) for three timeframes: historical (1985–2014), near-future (2020–2049), and far-future (2070–2099). Projections indicate a 15%–25% increase in annual precipitation and a 2°C–4°C rise in average temperature under SSP245, with more extreme changes under SSP585, including up to a 40% increase in precipitation and a 5°C–7°C rise in temperature by the far-future period. These changes are expected to drive a 30%–45% increase in annual runoff volume and a 20%–35% rise in nutrient loads (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) under SSP585. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was calibrated (NSE = 0.82) and validated (NSE = 0.79) using historical data to simulate hydrological processes and nutrient transport within the watershed. Using iPlantGreenS², a web-based GI planning tool, optimal GI locations and configurations were identified based on cost-effectiveness and nutrient removal efficiency. GI solutions, such as bioretention cells and vegetative swales, reduced runoff volume by 20%–35% and nutrient loads by 25%–40% in the near-future scenarios, with cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $50–$150 per kilogram of nutrient removed. However, GI effectiveness declined by 10%–20% under extreme far-future climate conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptive designs to accommodate higher variability in precipitation and temperature. These findings highlight the critical role of GI in enhancing urban water management resilience and provide actionable insights for policymakers and urban planners.

How to cite: Alamdari, N. and Hoque, M.: Adaptive Green Infrastructure Strategies for Stormwater Management in Urban Watersheds Under Changing Climate Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6999, 2025.

EGU25-7008 | Orals | HS5.4.1 | Highlight

Nature-based solutions and green roofs: are Italian citizens willing to pay? A survey investigation in three metropolitan areas 

Francesco Viola, Dario Pumo, Fulvio Boano, Matteo Ippolito, and Elena Cristiano

The large-scale installation of green roofs and other nature-based solutions in urban environment can provide multiple benefits for the sustainable development of cities. The implementation of these solutions, in facts, contributes to runoff mitigation during intense rainfall events, to urban heat island reduction, to biodiversity increase and to air quality improvement and it ensures an added aesthetic value. Although these solutions have been largely investigated from a technical perspective to ensure an efficient and effective installation and maintenance, it is also fundamental to evaluate citizens’ perception and willingness to pay. This aspect is crucial for policy makers and urban planners, since without societal interest and approval, these solutions are difficult to implement. In this context, we explore citizens’ interest and willingness to pay for private and public installations of green roofs and other nature-based solutions in three Italian metropolitan areas (i.e., Cagliari, Palermo and Turin), characterized by different climate and socio-economic conditions. Using an online anonymous survey, we investigated how socio-economic background and climate conditions could affect the perception of the most common environmental issues and the interest for urban nature-based solutions. Results highlighted an overall higher interest for green solutions on public spaces than on private ones. Most of the citizens are willing to financially contribute, with an average of 71 €/year, to the construction and maintenance of green roofs and nature-based solutions in public spaces, while the high costs limit the willingness to pay for green solutions on private properties. Results deriving from this study could provide essential insights for decision makers and urban planners to properly define green investments and incentivization policies, fostering the creation of sustainable and resilient cities.

How to cite: Viola, F., Pumo, D., Boano, F., Ippolito, M., and Cristiano, E.: Nature-based solutions and green roofs: are Italian citizens willing to pay? A survey investigation in three metropolitan areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7008, 2025.

Cities face risks and pressures to meet infrastructure needs, often at the cost of natural resources. Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI), like lakes and green spaces, serves as cities' "innate" immunity, mitigating risks like urban flooding. BGI’s flood-mitigating functions transcend administrative boundaries, requiring a catchment-based approach. Furthermore, due to India’s varied geography, the endogenous (local) and exogenous (regional or external) factors have different influences on the intensity of urban flooding in different city regions. However, current plans and policies, limited by administrative divisions, fragment BGI and weaken its flood mitigation capacity. Therefore, informed decision-making by urban policymakers is crucial for building future-proof cities.

Approach and Study Area: This study views cities as interactive layers, examining built-up intensity, city-level BGI transformations, and urban flooding hotspots. It highlights the interplay between urban densification, urban flooding hotspots, and BGI functioning in the catchment i.e. city-region. The study areas for this research are two urban agglomerations of India, namely, Pune and Bangalore. They’re among India’s 10 largest urban agglomerations. The findings from the case studies will highlight region-specific challenges and opportunities for integrating BGI into localized urban flood management strategies.

Methods and Data: The study will use a quantifiable approach by measuring the annual changes in values of three spatial indices – Normalized Built-up Index (NDBI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI). The choice of these spatial indices is based on their ability to capture and differentiate the transformations in the complex urban fabric which are often overlooked in traditional spatial analysis. Open-access satellite data at a medium-spatial resolution i.e. 10- 30 m for the period 2000-2025 will be used for calculating the above indices. Simultaneously, the in-situ data on urban flooding will be overlayed to identify areas under high risk. Thereafter resulting in the mapping of patterns of built-up intensification, BGI configurations, and urban flooding.

Key Findings: The findings provide evidence to comment on the nature of the relationship between urban densification and BGI at the city-region scale; and its association with localized urban flooding. Using GIS-based methods and annual datasets for EVI, MNDWI, and NDBI will uncover spatial and temporal BGI trends, addressing how densification impacts BGI’s effectiveness in mitigating urban flooding. This research's findings will contribute to scientifically informed and tailored urban hazard management strategies.

Novelty and Future Relevance: Geo-information Science has emerged as a vital tool for studying spatial transformations and detailed analysis of India's rapidly evolving urban environments. This research extends the limited temporal analyses of changes in BGI and urban densification in Indian cities. Traditional spatial analyses, like land cover change detection, often miss urban complexities. By integrating annual datasets of the chosen spatial indices for the past two decades and in-situ knowledge of urban flooding, the study reveals unexplored trends in India’s urban growth dynamics.

How to cite: Gangwar, D. and Biswas, A.: Navigating Urban Floods: Spatio-temporal Analysis of Blue-Green Infrastructure and Urban Densification in Indian Cities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8002, 2025.

EGU25-8725 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Risk-Based Design for flood risk mitigation: a case study of green roof in Milan 

Ahmed Owais Durrani, Marcello Arosio, and Maria Pregnolato

Rapid urbanisation and climate change have intensified the expansion of impervious surfaces and extreme rainfall events, heightening the risk of Urban Pluvial Floods (UPF). Therefore, this study aims to analyse Green Roofs (GR) as a Nature-Based Solution for UPF in Milan, Italy. The study utilises a GR dataset, which contains 53,519 data points, to identify potential places for GR installation within the municipal area of Milan [1]. Each item contains geographic coordinates and roof area. Moreover, the dataset also classifies the roofs into the type of structure, i.e., residential, industrial, and commercial buildings, etc. The Curve Number (CN) methodology in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model is employed to compute the flood maps [2]. First, a baseline scenario is simulated without the intervention of GR to serve as a reference. Three intervention approaches are then devised to evaluate the efficacy of the GR in reducing the UPF hazard with varying percentages of the GR dataset implemented. Starting from 5% implementation and incrementally increasing up to 100%. Random iteration (ITE) approach is conducted initially. Second, iterations employ roofs with the highset area (AR). Finally, areas with the highest water depth (WD) are targeted first for the GR implementation. The model uses Copernicus Land Use/Land Cover data (LULC) [3] and NASA Soil Hydrological Group (SHG) data [4] as inputs. Moreover, the model also requires a CN table derived from a literature review. The baseline scenario without GR integration was compared to the scenarios to assess reductions in floodwater depth and affected area. The Probability Density Function (PDF) plot of the results indicated a randomised decrease in water depth across the ITE scenario. In contrast, the AR scenario demonstrated a more significant decrease in water depth during the initial stages. According to the PDF results, the WD scenario had better results. Therefore, to complete the risk assessment, the results from the WD scenario were integrated with exposure and vulnerability information. The JRC vulnerability function for residential buildings was used to complete the risk assessment. Although the analysis provided some useful insights, a comprehensive Cost-Benefit analysis is necessary to account for implementation and maintenance costs, with reduced risk and Average Annual Losses serving as the primary benefit for optimising the resource allocation. Finally, the study has some limitations, including the assumption of uniform rainfall across the municipal area and the model’s exclusion of water propagation effects.

Keywords: Urban Flood Risk, Green Roofs, Nature-Based Solutions, Risk-based design, Curve Number method

[1]        Unità Open Data, ‘Potential green roofs in Milan’, Comune di Milano, 2016 (updated 2021-11-10), accessed 2025-01-13, http://data.europa.eu/88u/dataset/ds1446

[2]        Stanford University et al., “Natural Capital Project InVEST 3.14.2.” Accessed: Sep. 02, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest

[3]        Copernicus, “CORINE Land Cover 2018 ,” 2024. Accessed: Sep. 02, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.2909/71c95a07-e296-44fc-b22b-415f42acfdf0

[4]        NASA, “Global Hydrologic Soil Groups (HYSOGs250m) for Curve Number-Based Runoff Modeling,” 2020. Accessed: Sep. 02, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C2216864285-ORNL_CLOUD.html

 

How to cite: Durrani, A. O., Arosio, M., and Pregnolato, M.: Risk-Based Design for flood risk mitigation: a case study of green roof in Milan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8725, 2025.

EGU25-8905 | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

A cloud-native modelling framework to quantify the multiple benefits of urban tree planting  

Geoffrey Dawson, Chris Dearden, Katharina Reusch, Jake Doran, Junaid Butt, Ajay Rawat, Mark Birmingham, Bulent Ozel, Chloe Treger, and Anne Jones

Planting of trees in cities can have several benefits: they can store carbon, increase biodiversity, reduce urban heat and pollution, and mitigate flooding. To inform investment into tree planting as a climate change adaptation solution, it is vitally important that all these potential benefits can be outlined and understood by relevant stakeholders. Here we present a fully integrated, scalable, cloud-based modelling framework to provide such insights, built using open-source models and datasets.

Within this framework, the Green Urban Scenarios (GUS) model simulates tree growth and attempts to quantify several of these impacts including carbon storage, annual water storage, and air pollution. In order to measure the impacts of tree planting and growth scenarios on surface water (pluvial) flooding we combine the GUS model with a design storm model which allows us to quantify the impact of different tree planting scenarios on individual rainfall events, including future climate change scenarios. We then input the adjusted rainfall into a pluvial simulation flood model, the IBM Integrated Flood Model (IFM) to produce maps of estimated flood depth. Finally, we combine flood depth with OpenStreetMap data to estimate the impact to assets such as buildings, transport networks and energy infrastructure.  

The models are integrated into a complete end-to-end workflow using a cloud-native, scalable modelling framework based on Kubernetes and OpenShift. Open datasets for England are used to obtain tree locations, historical rainfall data, climate projections, soil data, elevation models and land cover data and the workflow can be run for where the input data are available. We provide examples for several cities and towns in England, demonstrating how the framework enables users to quickly and easily summarise the potential benefits of tree planting scenarios for different regions, and for current and future climate change scenarios. 

How to cite: Dawson, G., Dearden, C., Reusch, K., Doran, J., Butt, J., Rawat, A., Birmingham, M., Ozel, B., Treger, C., and Jones, A.: A cloud-native modelling framework to quantify the multiple benefits of urban tree planting , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8905, 2025.

EGU25-10826 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Tree monitoring as tool in urban transformation towards Blue-Green infrastructure 

Katrin Fröhlich, Jan Friesen, Snigdha Dev Roy, Susanne Benz, Tamalika Chakraborty, Jan Totzki, and Somidh Saha

As climate change continues, heatwaves and droughts are becoming more frequent and prolonged, challenging urban systems. Urban systems are built by and home to people, but they are also home to many other forms of life such as plants and animals. They include buildings and roads, but also green spaces and water management. To make urban areas resilient and livable for all in the future, we need new approaches and ideas to tackle the consequences of climate extremes such as flooding and overheating. Green spaces in particular have the potential to partially mitigate climate extremes in cities; trees cool sealed infrastructure in the summer. As part of the Urban Transformation - Towards Blue-Green Infrastructure as well as the Cool Tree project, we are generating real field data from established urban green spaces. Focusing on urban trees, we assess their health, sap flow, radial growth, fine root growth, microhabitats, tree microclimate and cooling effect on their surroundings. The tree monitoring, we present was started in early 2025 and will cover at least one growing season. It involves 45 trees of three different tree species located on research and university campuses of two different German cities Leipzig (UFZ) and Karlsruhe (KIT). We are covering two different experimental approaches with one observing the tree cooling and growth of Platanus x hispanica in parklike conditions and the second covering the physiology and cooling capacity of building and street trees of the species Robinia pseudoacacia and Tilia cordata under different irrigation regimes. The application of these irrigation schemes will show the value of investing water for already established urban trees. Finally, and overall, we aim to determine whether irrigated urban trees are healthier and cool their surroundings more effectively than their non-irrigated neighbors.

How to cite: Fröhlich, K., Friesen, J., Dev Roy, S., Benz, S., Chakraborty, T., Totzki, J., and Saha, S.: Tree monitoring as tool in urban transformation towards Blue-Green infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10826, 2025.

EGU25-11555 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Adaptation of Soil Constructions of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for Anthropogenic and Climatic Risks in the Conditions of the Moscow Megalopolis 

Olga Romzaykina, Igor Shchukin, Artyom Losev, Ekaterina Kozlova, Ekaterina Sergeeva, and Viacheslav Vasenev

Living in cities brings both social and economic benefits to people, but also exposes them to additional risks to life and health compared to living in the countryside. In the context of global climate change, adverse anthropogenic factors such as noise and light pollution, poor air quality, soil degradation and low biodiversity are compounded by the increased frequency of extreme weather events, ranging from heavy rainfall  to prolonged dry spells. The effects of such events are particularly pronounced in large cities in moderate climate where such hazards were uncharacteristic only a few decades ago. The megalopolis of Moscow is a prime example. The approach of systematic implementation of the principles of green infrastructure (GI) and nature-based solutions (NbS) has already proven its effectiveness in regions with southern and soft climates. However, in regions with pronounced and long winters, the implementation of NbS is limited by a number of factors: the risk of reduced soil substrate capacity due to freezing, reduced pollutant treatment efficiency at low temperatures, and the presence of de-icing chemicals in meltwater runoff. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to adapt international standards for the creation of NbS on a local scale to the natural and anthropogenic conditions of cities in moderate climate, using the Moscow megalopolis as a case study. 

The study included an experiment on de-icing salt contamination of soil for rain gardens based on a mixture of sand and loam and sand and peat under laboratory conditions. The results were focused on monitoring of agrochemical, physical and microbiological properties of soils, qualitative characteristics of leachate and the physiological state of plants. Monitoring of the experimental field rain garden was complemented by measurements of carbon dioxide emissions, field humidity, soil temperature and precipitation records, as well as analysis of the qualitative composition of snow cover and meltwater runoff. Experimental and field results related to surface runoff filtration processes were compared with modeling data obtained in Hydrus 2D. Experimentally obtained parameters of the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) and the results of particle size distribution analysis were used as input data for the model.  

 Model and laboratory values of filtration coefficients showed high convergence (R2=0.86) and did not exceed 300 mm/h for the proposed mixtures, but field measurements of filtration rate for identical soil mixtures were heterogeneous, with some replicates showing values almost 1.5 times higher. Soil substrates based on sand and loam were characterized by good water retention capacity and nutrient availability, which created favorable conditions for microbial communities. After salinization, the biomass and respiratory activity of microorganisms were reduced, and a low rate of recovery of viability after six months was also observed. Soils based on different types of sand and peat showed lower short-term salinity tolerance, but better long-term recovery, which can be explained by their lower water-holding capacity and better aeration.

The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation project 23-77-01069. 

How to cite: Romzaykina, O., Shchukin, I., Losev, A., Kozlova, E., Sergeeva, E., and Vasenev, V.: Adaptation of Soil Constructions of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for Anthropogenic and Climatic Risks in the Conditions of the Moscow Megalopolis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11555, 2025.

EGU25-12397 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

Innovative Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Stormwater Management: Insights from Advanced Monitoring and Modelling Systems 

Anne-Catherine Renard, Julie Acrebis, Vanessa Paulus, and Aurore Degré

Climate change and soil sealing are intensifying the challenges of urban stormwater management, driving the need for adaptive strategies to address evolving conditions [(Hou et al., 2020), (Hasankhan et al., 2024)]. Traditional grey infrastructures, designed exclusively to regulate rainwater flows, are monofunctional in nature. Their efficiency decreases as rainfall patterns shift leading to a greater risk of flooding. Furthermore, it does not address other urban challenges, such as the heat island effect (Menberg et al., 2013).

In response, nature-based solutions (NBS) such as rain gardens have emerged as promising alternatives. These structures help to alleviate flooding through sustainable practices. NBS also offer significant potential to create positive socio-cultural impacts by enhancing community engagement, fostering environmental stewardship, and integrating green infrastructure into urban lifestyles (De Knegt et al., 2024). However, although these systems are widely used, we still need to understand their long-term hydraulic performance under dynamic conditions (Wang et al., 2024). This research aims to address this gap by analysing the design, monitoring, and performance of a fully monitored rain garden system implemented on the campus of the Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech faculty of University of Liège in Belgium.

The system, spanning 4460 m², includes three swales and a semi-permanent retention basin. It is equipped with advanced sensors to monitor the dynamics of hydraulic flows, recording water levels (from 0.005 to 3.5 metres, ±2%) and flow rates (from 0 to 3.05 m/s, ±0.09%). These sensors, installed at key points, enable the monitoring of infiltration processes.

The system has been in operation for over two years. It manages runoff from a catchment area of approximately 1.8 hectares. This demonstrates its effectiveness in addressing local stormwater management challenges. The collected data has facilitated the development of a site-specific model, paving the way towards a better integration of nature-based solutions into urban and peri-urban projects.

The presentation will outline the concept and operation of the rain garden, its monitoring system, and the hydrological balances produced to date. These elements will highlight the key role of this type of infrastructure in the sustainable management of rainwater and its potential for meeting current urban environmental challenges.

De Knegt B., Breman B.C., Le Clec’h S., Van Hinsberg A., Lof M.E., Pouwels R., Roelofsen H.D. & Alkemade R., 2024. Exploring the contribution of nature-based solutions for environmental challenges in the Netherlands. Science of the Total Environment 929, DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172186.

Hasankhan A., Ghaeini-Hessaroeyeh M. & Fadaei-Kermani E., 2024. Enhancing Stormwater Management through Hydromodification Measures and Low Impact Development Strategies in Urban Areas: A Neighborhood-Scale Study. Water Resour Manage 1–19, DOI:10.1007/s11269-024-03971-0.

Hou X., Guo H., Wang F., Li M., Xue X., Liu X. & Zeng S., 2020. Is the sponge city construction sufficiently adaptable for the future stormwater management under climate change? Journal of Hydrology 588, 125055, DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125055.

Menberg K., Blum P., Schaffitel A. & Bayer P., 2013. Long-Term Evolution of Anthropogenic Heat Fluxes into a Subsurface Urban Heat Island. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47(17), 9747–9755, DOI:10.1021/es401546u.

How to cite: Renard, A.-C., Acrebis, J., Paulus, V., and Degré, A.: Innovative Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Stormwater Management: Insights from Advanced Monitoring and Modelling Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12397, 2025.

EGU25-13077 | Orals | HS5.4.1

Towards an urban soil living lab to support C-smart management of green infrastructure 

Viacheslav Vasenev, Marya Korneykova, Yurii Dvornikov, Olga Romzaykina, Marcel Hoosbeek, and Titia Mulder

The development of urban-green infrastructures is considered an efficient nature-based solution (NBS) for C sequestration. The potential of NBS for C sequestration is often based on aboveground biomass and often overlook the contribution of urban soils. Urban soils vary from just affected by humans to fully human-made. Analysis of the spatial relationships between soil C stocks, СО2 emissions and UGI management and maintenance is necessary to support decisions in UGI planning aiming to facilitate C sequestration and contribute to achieving C neutrality. Urban Living Lab (LL) is a relatively novel but increasingly developing concept aiming to support multi-stakeholder engagement and co-production in exploring ecosystem processes and developing nature-based solutions in a real urban setting. European Commission considers LL an efficient tool contributing to soil health analysis and improvement, and Soil Deal for Europe requires establishing at least 100 LL by 2030. So far, most of the soil LL were developed in agricultural and natural landscapes, whereas urban soil and green infrastructures remained overlooked.

The research aims to develop a prototype of an urban soil living lab (USLL) to support C-smart decisions in soil construction, planning and maintenance of urban green spaces. The USLL shall be a platform for co-creation of soil constructions to support various types of NBS units (e.g., lawns, flowering herbs or rain gardens) and for monitoring their effects on C balance. Monitoring techniques include 1) measuring soil C stocks at multiple locations with further digital soil mapping; 2) analyzing soil organic matter fraction (mineral-associated and particulate organic matter fractions); 3) continuous measurement of soil respiration during the season (e.g., by gas analyzer); 4) continuous monitoring of soil temperature and moisture at multiple points by manual and autonomous sensors with extrapolation based on remote-sensing data on surface temperature; 5) assessing C sequestration in aboveground biomass based on regular mowing or Li-Dar scanning; 6) setting up long-term experiments to study the effects of management and maintenance regimes on C balance. The prototype was tested at three university campus areas located in different climate zones: Wageningen (the Netherlands), Moscow and Apatity (Russia).

Considering topsoil C stocks, ratios between mineral associated (MaOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) C-fractions and C-CO2 emissions/ soil C stocks ratio, soils under trees were shown as the most efficient in C accumulation, whereas lawns were potential C sources. Moreover, lawn maintenance caused high soil CO2 emissions which were intensified by favorable microclimatic conditions. As a result, C stocks under old lawns were lower compared to the recent ones, which was an opposite trend compared to what can be expected under natural conditions. Further development of the USLL approach will aim to support C-smart management of urban soils as a nature-based solution for climate mitigation and sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Vasenev, V., Korneykova, M., Dvornikov, Y., Romzaykina, O., Hoosbeek, M., and Mulder, T.: Towards an urban soil living lab to support C-smart management of green infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13077, 2025.

EGU25-13562 | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Influence of image source type and spatial resolution on deep learning-based automated green roof recognition 

Andrea Cominola, Pascal Sebastian Legrum, and Antara Dasgupta

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme hydroclimatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. These effects are particularly pronounced in urbanized areas with extensive paved surfaces and limited vegetation. Rising temperatures exacerbate urban heat islands (UHI), while heavy rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, increasing the risk of flooding and combined system overflow. As one of the most widely applied blue-green infrastructure in urban regions, green roofs offer a promising solution to these challenges. By mitigating UHI effects and enhancing stormwater management, they can significantly contribute to urban climate resilience. Green roofs can reduce summer heat gain in buildings by up to 31% and retain an average of 87% of rainfall, with a substantial portion returned to the atmosphere. Despite their potential, comprehensive assessments of green roof adoption and effectiveness remain limited, partly due to a lack of accessible, comprehensive data on their prevalence and performance. Additionally, data tracking the development of green infrastructure over time is scarce, hindering the evaluation of policies and incentives aimed at promoting their implementation.

To address this gap, previous work by Wu and Biljecki developed “Roofpedia”, an open-source deep learning algorithm for green roof mapping and urban sustainability evaluation using satellite imagery. This model employs a convolutional neural network (U-Net) for image segmentation and has been successfully applied to satellite imagery and aerial orthoimagery data from different cities worldwide. Satellite imagery and aerial imagery collected with ad hoc campaigns can, however, be characterized by very different spatial resolution.

Acknowledging that different types of images and image resolutions can affect the feasibility and accuracy of automated green roof recognition, this research retrains and evaluates Roofpedia using imagery data of Berlin (Germany), investigating quantitatively how image platform type and spatial resolution affect the accuracy of automated green roof detection accuracy. Preliminary results show that green roof classification accuracy degrades substantially when the algorithm trained on orthoimagery with a 0.2 m/pixel resolution is transferred for application onto satellite imagery with a spatial resolution of 3 m/pixel, hampering the prediction of green roofs at this resolution. Further research will investigate how green roof classification capabilities degrade for intermediate resolutions, possibly identifying a feasibility range, along with different algorithm training and testing strategies considering combinations of image sources. This research ultimately aims to enhance the effectiveness of automated tools for green roof mapping, providing actionable insights to support urban planning, policymaking, and the broader adoption and monitoring of green infrastructure as a climate adaptation strategy.

How to cite: Cominola, A., Legrum, P. S., and Dasgupta, A.: Influence of image source type and spatial resolution on deep learning-based automated green roof recognition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13562, 2025.

EGU25-15933 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Mapping heat-related risks in Swiss cities under different urban tree scenarios 

Myke Koopmans, Jonas Schwaab, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, and Edouard L. Davin
About three quarter of Swiss residents live in urban areas, and this proportion is expected to grow in future decades. An increasing number of people will therefore be exposed to urban heat, which can have adverse effects on human wellbeing, productivity and physical health.
We explore the possibility to detect high-risk areas in five Swiss cities with the development of an urban heat-based risk-mapping approach. The included cities are Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne and Zurich. The analysis is based on a combination of biophysical, including Landsat 8 derived Land Surface Temperature (LST), and socioeconomic data. Additionally, we assess the impact of urban trees on urban heat within the districts of these cities, helping to estimate how risk levels would change under two scenarios: one with increased tree cover (MaxTree) and another with no (NoTree) urban trees.
The assessment on the impact of urban trees on heat showed that the areas with urban trees generally experience cooler temperatures compared to those without, both at the city and district levels. This underscores the positive role of urban trees in mitigating the urban heat effect.
The risk mapping approach revealed a distinct spatial pattern for each city and high risk areas were identified.
Generally, the high-risk areas in the analyzed cities cover the city centers and areas with high vulnerability.
The ‘NoTree’ scenario showed higher risks compared to the baseline situation, illustrating that urban trees currently mitigate heat related risks in Swiss cities. The ‘MaxTree’ scenario results in lower risks, especially in the cities of Lausanne and Bern.
The presented risk mapping approach, including the two idealized scenarios, can be used by policy- and decision-makers (e.g. city planners) can be a tool to determine where urban planning actions are the most urgent and where trees could be most beneficial in terms of adaptation to heat. The approach is easily adaptable and transferable to other cities, since it relies on a clear and simple methodological framework, openly available LST data, and basic socioeconomic variables at district scale that are available for many cities.

How to cite: Koopmans, M., Schwaab, J., Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., and Davin, E. L.: Mapping heat-related risks in Swiss cities under different urban tree scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15933, 2025.

EGU25-16859 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Scenario analysis on the impact of green infrastructure on urban pluvial flood mitigation 

Sophia Dobkowitz, Leon Frederik De Vos, Deva Charan Jarajapu, Sarah Lindenlaub, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, and Axel Bronstert

Urban surface sealing is limiting infiltration and thus increasing the formation of runoff during heavy rain events. Green infrastructure measures can be used to reduce urban flood risk by promoting decentralized infiltration, water storage and evaporation. In this study, we investigate the impact of green infrastructure on urban runoff formation, flood heights and flow velocities, and the resulting damage to buildings. Our model-based scenario analysis is located in Berlin, in a heavily sealed 3.3 km² catchment. Rain events with a duration of one hour and totals of 15 to 100 mm are considered. The green infrastructure scenarios include different spatial extents and combinations of bioretention cells, green roofs and pervious pavement. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is used for the urban runoff generation and the 2D-hydrodynamic module of TELEMAC for surface runoff concentration. Building damage is modelled with the Flood Damage Estimation Tool (FlooDEsT), a recursive partitioning tool developed with survey data representative of building damage caused by pluvial floods.

How to cite: Dobkowitz, S., De Vos, L. F., Jarajapu, D. C., Lindenlaub, S., Samprogna Mohor, G., and Bronstert, A.: Scenario analysis on the impact of green infrastructure on urban pluvial flood mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16859, 2025.

EGU25-17332 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Awareness, adoption and willingness to pay for green roofs in the City of Edinburgh, Scotland 

Daniel Green, Elena Cristiano, Olivia Smith, and Lei Li

Green roofs provide a wide range of co-benefits, including reducing stormwater runoff, improving air and water quality, supporting biodiversity and decreasing energy consumption for heating and cooling. These features make green roofs essential for the sustainable development of smart, resilient cities. Despite extensive research on their benefits, adoption remains limited, largely due to unclear public perceptions and limited understanding of citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for green roof installation and maintenance. Gaining insights into public interest and WTP is crucial for urban planners and policymakers to incorporate green roofs into future urban development plans.

This study examines public perceptions of green roofs and other nature-based solutions (NbS) in Edinburgh, Scotland, and assesses residents' WTP for their adoption. A survey disseminated through social media platforms and in-person flyers yielded over 300 responses. The data were analysed to identify trends in awareness, interest and WTP, associated with different socio-economic and demographic indicators.

Key findings reveal a high level of awareness about NBS and recognition of green roofs as effective solutions to major environmental challenges, such as high energy consumption, air quality issues, water retention and biodiversity loss. Many respondents expressed WTP for green roofs, particularly through council tax contributions for public infrastructure, though only 25% showed interest in installing a green roof on their own property. Barriers to adoption include unsuitable building conditions, high installation and maintenance costs, and limited knowledge about green roof implementation. More than half of respondents indicated that they felt as though their buildings were unsuitable for green roof installation or they were not in a place to make this decision (i.e. not the property owner or living in a shared block of flats where external features are managed by an external company). However, if these barriers were not present, there would be a preference for supporting green roofs on public and private spaces in cities.

Additionally, a comparative analysis with findings from an affiliated study conducted within Mediterranean regions was conducted to identify potential cultural and economic factors influencing regional variations in WTP for green infrastructure in cities. Preliminary analysis demonstrates that the perceptions on the benefits of green roofs differ, driven by differing priorities and challenges associated with regional climatic conditions (i.e. passive cooling in Mediterranean regions versus heat retention and rainfall management in Edinburgh’s temperate oceanic climate).

This study has implications for the adoption of green roofs within the UK and Europe, highlighting several barriers which need to be overcome before widespread adoption can be achieved.

How to cite: Green, D., Cristiano, E., Smith, O., and Li, L.: Awareness, adoption and willingness to pay for green roofs in the City of Edinburgh, Scotland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17332, 2025.

EGU25-18540 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

Laboratory Experiments and Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Modeling to Evaluate a Permeable Pavement Performance 

Giulia Mazzarotto, Matteo Camporese, and Paolo Salandin

Permeable Pavements (PPs) are a type of Sustainable Drainage Systems that reduce runoff in urban areas and the related discharge to the drainage network, thereby decreasing the risk of flooding without the need of changing the end of use of the retrofitted areas. However, uncertainty affecting their performance and the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes governing their functionality are still current issues that limit their installation.

Several numerical models have been employed to describe hydraulic processes in PPs. Typically, these models focus solely on simulating flows through variably saturated porous media using 1D and 2D approaches. However, this approach neglects or oversimplifies surface processes and their interaction with subsurface flows. The water exchange at the surface-subsurface interface is intrinsically linked to the infiltration process in the underlying soil layer.  Surface runoff, when present, is influenced by the geometric and hydraulic properties of the surface as well as the local infiltration capacity.

These features can be adequately represented by Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological models (ISSHMs) such as CATHY (Catchment Hydrology, Camporese et al., 2010), a spatially distributed and physically based model that jointly describes runoff and infiltration processes.

Here, the CATHY model has been used together with experiments developed in a lab facility to achieve a detailed understanding of the physical processes occurring in PPs.

The lab model was developed reproducing a 1:1 scale permeable parking lot section, 6 m long, 2 m wide and with thickness varying between 0.9 and 1 m (surface longitudinal slope of about 1.2%), enclosed within a 6×2 m2 concrete box.

The CATHY model is used to simulate the hydraulic response of the PP subjected to artificial rainfall events generated through a rainfall simulator (Lora et al., 2016). No-flow boundary conditions are imposed at the bottom and lateral sides to reproduce the impermeable concrete walls surrounding the PP. A seepage face boundary condition is assumed downstream to simulate the subsurface flow through the porous wall on the downstream side of the facility.

Data regarding the water table evolution is continuously gathered through spatially distributed sensors (tensiometers and piezometers), along with surface runoff and subsurface discharge measurements collected at the downstream end via tipping bucket flow gauges. The dataset is used to calibrate the CATHY parameters, i.e., the hydraulic characteristics of the pavement tiles and of the aggregate materials forming the filter layer package. A first set of parameters are defined according to literature review and laboratory tests on the aggregate materials.

Despite difficulties encountered in the evaluation of the parameters, the calibrated ISSHM represents a useful tool to achieve a better understanding of the physical processes characterizing PPs.

How to cite: Mazzarotto, G., Camporese, M., and Salandin, P.: Laboratory Experiments and Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Modeling to Evaluate a Permeable Pavement Performance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18540, 2025.

EGU25-19320 | Orals | HS5.4.1

Bridging the Green Gap: An Evaluation of the 3-30-300 Rule in European Cities  

Leonardo Enrico Bertassello, Marijn van der Velde, and Luc Feyen

As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, cities play a crucial role in addressing global challenges, including environmental sustainability and human well-being. The presence of natural green spaces in urban areas is essential for mediating the interaction between the built environment and humans, providing ecosystem services, and promoting population health and wellbeing. However, the demand for urban green spaces is often at odds with urbanization, densification, and sprawl, leading to the loss and fragmentation of urban natural areas. 

In response to these challenges, the European Union has introduced a range of policies and legislations, such as the New Urban Agenda, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Nature Restoration Law. Along with such initiatives Konijnendijk (2022) launched a new rule of thumb for urban forestry and urban greening: the 3-30-300 rule. The 3-30-300 rule aims to ensure that everyone should be able to see at least 3 well-established trees from their home, workplace, or place of learning; have at least 30 % tree canopy cover in their neighborhood; and live within 300-m of a high-quality public green space (at least 0.5 ha in size).

This study presents the first comprehensive evaluation of the 3-30-300 rule across 894 European cities, using recent data on urban green space distribution, tree cover density, and human settlement. The analysis reveals significant disparities in the distribution and access to urban green areas, with only 1.7% of the total population in European cities living in accordance with the 3-30-300 rule. There are no EU cities where more than 15% of the population satisfy the rule, and just 10 cities where this percentage is larger than 5%. 

Our results show that there is a clear gap in the distribution and access to urban green areas across European cities. Thus, the projected urban population growth in European regions underscores the need for a paradigm shift in urban planning. The recent decade (2010-2020) has witnessed a significant increase in urban population (+16% on average) and urban area expansion (+2.3% on average) within city boundaries. However, this urban growth has not been accompanied by a commensurate increase in green urban areas and tree cover density with both indicators exhibiting stable or declining trends.

Such results highlight the need for a paradigm shift in urban planning, integrating green spaces and trees within city planning to provide ecological and social benefits, including climate change mitigation and adaptation. To address this gap, targeted financial support and coordinated strategies are necessary to ensure that vulnerable cities can secure adequate quantities of green spaces and provide equitable access to these areas, ultimately promoting more resilient and sustainable urban environments.

How to cite: Bertassello, L. E., van der Velde, M., and Feyen, L.: Bridging the Green Gap: An Evaluation of the 3-30-300 Rule in European Cities , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19320, 2025.

EGU25-19420 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.1

Integration of green-blue rainwater management approaches into a planning and implementation tool for BIM-compatability 

Christina Henöckl, Bernhard Pucher, and Rosemarie Stangl

Due to climate change, heavy rainfall events have become more frequent and more severe. Cities like Vienna are particularly affected by the consequences due to a high degree of sealing. City planning is not in line with “water-sensitive” principles. As a result, the sewage systems are repeatedly pushed to their limits. At the same time, summer heatwaves and dry periods are becoming more intense and longer, putting massive pressure on urban vegetation.

A key aspect of creating climate-resilient cities is therefore integrative rainwater management (RWM) and implementing green-blue approaches. The planning, implementation and operation of more sustainable RWM systems often cause problems for stakeholders due to their complexity. Planning and decision support systems and BIM-compatibility for green-blue solutions are currently missing. A simple and transparent web application for planning sustainable, green rainwater management systems can fill this gap as a stand-alone-solutions as well for BIM-integration.

Solutions for decentralised and integrative green rainwater management are collected and analysed and made available via a web interface which are based on a component database from the software BIM as well as predefined and scientifically elaborated parameter-based calculations for discharge. Complex, interlinked systems of building-related retention solutions (roof and façade greening), rainwater utilisation and infiltration systems are linked together.

The aim is to create a prototype web application for planning integrative, decentralised stormwater management systems. The planning recommendations should respond to the individual project parameters. These include, for example, size and type of the area to be drained, runoff coefficients, the soil conditions and potential infiltration capacity, the available infiltration area, the rainfall measurement and other microclimatic parameters. In addition, the web application is designed to meet the specific requirements of users by taking into account preferences in terms of aesthetics, improvements of ecological and biodiversity status, of microclimate and costs.

Through this comprehensive approach, the planning tool will cover the needs of various stakeholder groups. Compared to hitherto solutions, the intended application represents a massive simplification for all users. This enhances the rethinking of urban design and more resilient urban planning. The spectrum of decentralised rainwater management will be made accessible to a broader public, thereby raising awareness and optimising and maximising the potential of green-blue RWM solutions. The interested public can get basic information and overview, planners have access to a wide range of parameter-based components and complex systems can be planned quickly and easily. This contribution presents a new approach supporting future BIM standards for rainwater retention and green-blue RWM implementation. 

How to cite: Henöckl, C., Pucher, B., and Stangl, R.: Integration of green-blue rainwater management approaches into a planning and implementation tool for BIM-compatability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19420, 2025.

Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) improve storm water management by leveraging surface runoff in urban areas while limiting the negative impacts. Integrating SuDS into the urban environments requires a systematic planning and design framework across various spatial scales. Existing studies have utilized GIS-based multi-criteria methods and Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) to identify suitable locations for SuDS. However, these approaches are often subjective and do not account for the hydrologic characteristics of the catchment. Integrating SDSS tools with the Simulation – Optimization (S – O) frameworks has shown potential for addressing multiple storm water management objectives. Current S – O frameworks typically focus on providing solutions based on “which element” and “where to locate” or “which element” and “how much to allocate”. However, an ideal SuDS – SDSS should answer all the three questions: “which element”, “where to locate” and “how much to allocate”.

To holistically address this problem, a novel framework integrating SDSS with a hydrologic model using an evolutionary algorithm is proposed. The framework begins with the selection of appropriate thematic layers and water balance layers obtained from a hydrologic model – Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The weights for the selected thematic layers are calculated using Normalized Mutual Information, an objective method that quantifies how well the chosen thematic layers explain the hydrologic response of the catchment. The second part determines suitable sites for SuDS elements, viz., bio-retention cell, infiltration trench, permeable pavement, rain garden, swales through spatial overlay analysis. The S – O part of the framework involves synthetic modelling of Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). This model is then coupled with the Multi-Layer Green-Ampt (MLGA) based SuDS modules to simulate the runoff response for selected design storms of various return periods. Finally, the optimal combination of SuDS (“which element”) and area to be allocated are determined using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA – II). The framework produces pareto-optimal solutions, enabling decision-makers to evaluate trade-offs and develop policies for planning and development.

The framework is applied to the Adyar basin, covering an area of 830 km2. The optimal solutions obtained are implemented and simulated in the SWAT model to evaluate the peak flow and runoff volume reductions at the sub-basin scale. This research provides insights into how various combinations of SuDS implemented at the HRU level reduce peak flow and runoff volume at the sub-basin scale and how SuDS influence the water balance components, offering critical insights for urban planners and water resource managers.

How to cite: Sankarbalaji, A., Subrahmanian, S., Modi, K., Duraisekaran, E., and Narasimhan, B.: Development of a Multi-Criteria based Multi-Objective Simulation – Optimization Framework Integrated with Hydrologic Model and Evolutionary Algorithm for Planning, Design, and Analysis of SuDS at a river-basin scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19515, 2025.

        This study explores the role of Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECM) in global climate governance and biodiversity conservation and proposes a systematic evaluation framework. As the global environmental crisis intensifies, traditional protected areas face challenges such as difficulties in designation, conflicts with human settlements, and exclusive management models. OECM has emerged as a complementary conservation strategy, particularly when combined with Green Infrastructure (GI). This approach not only broadens the scope of conservation but also introduces new actors, such as corporations and communities, into environmental governance. However, there remains a lack of quantitative evaluation methods to assess the effectiveness of OECM.
        Using the Taipei Basin as a case study, a densely populated urban area with severe green space fragmentation facing challenges from climate change and biodiversity loss, this research develops an evaluation framework. It integrates the Gravity Index (GGG), Connectivity Index (dMtot), and Ecosystem Service Value Index (ESV_B) to quantify the ecological and social benefits of corporate investment in green infrastructure. Additionally, the urban cooling model is employed to analyze temperature changes under different OECM scenarios.
        The results indicate that OECM-driven measures, especially corporate investments in green infrastructure such as urban parks and riverside green spaces, significantly enhance urban habitat connectivity, strengthen ecosystem resilience, and effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect. Among these, riverside corridors were identified as key areas for improving connectivity and cooling effects. Corporate participation in promoting OECM not only enhances the stability of ecosystem services but also fosters collaboration between corporations and communities, achieving synergetic governance among diverse stakeholders.
        This study demonstrates that OECM provides an innovative solution to address urban biodiversity and climate challenges, complementing traditional protected areas and offering a new strategy for achieving global climate governance and conservation objectives.


Keywords: Green Infrastructure (GI), Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECM), Habitat Connectivity, Ecological Resilience, Corporate Participation, Brand Value, Economic Benefits.

How to cite: Huang, Y.-C. and Chung, M.-K.: Integrating Green Infrastructure and OECM Strategies: Enhancing Habitat Connectivity and Urban Ecosystem Resilience through Corporate Participation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20139, 2025.

EGU25-20457 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.1

Evaluating Karst Drywells for Urban Stormwater Management and Aquifer Recharge 

Yonatan Ganot, Eliyahu Valdman, Ziv Moreno, and Tamir Kamai

Drywells are extremely useful for coping with excess surface water in areas where drainage and diversion of storm flows are limited, thereby facilitating stormwater infiltration and groundwater recharge. Drywells have been used for stormwater management in locations that receive high volumes of precipitation, naturally or due to climate change; however, to date, they have not been developed in urban areas overlying karst landscapes. To test the performance of karst drywells, we constructed a pilot system for collecting, filtering, and recharging urban stormwater through drywells in karst rock. The study site is in the Judaean Mountains, within an urban residential area in Jerusalem, Israel. The infiltration capacity and the effective hydraulic conductivity (K) of the drywells were evaluated using graduated water injection tests. Additionally, we used electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to monitor the subsurface water flow patterns from the injection wells to the surrounding karst matrix. The infiltration capacity of the drywells was up to 30 m3/hour (the maximum discharge delivered by a nearby fire hydrant) while monitored water levels in the drywells were relatively stable per grade, ranging from 7 to 39 m. Calculated hydraulic conductivities were in the range of K = 0.1-100 m/day, and K generally shows a weak inverse correlation with the rock quality designation (RQD) index, obtained from rock cores collected during the drilling of the dry wells. The ERT survey revealed the heterogeneous nature of the karst matrix, as changes in resistivity were detected only in specific flow paths. The performance of the pilot system was tested over the last three winters, during which all the diverted stormwater was successfully captured by the karst drywell. For example, during 9 days with a total rainfall of 295 mm, a cumulative volume of 45 m3 was recharged through the drywell, with a maximum discharge of 13 m3/hour. We believe that high-conductivity karst drywells together with adequate pre-treatment filtration can serve as a valuable technique for urban flood mitigation and stormwater recharge.

How to cite: Ganot, Y., Valdman, E., Moreno, Z., and Kamai, T.: Evaluating Karst Drywells for Urban Stormwater Management and Aquifer Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20457, 2025.

EGU25-513 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Assessment of Low Impact Development Strategies with Multi-Scale, Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approaches for Urban Flood Resilience 

İlksen Şenocak, Gül Şimşek, Mehdi H. Afshar, Aysun Tuna, Sermin Çakıcı Alp, Hayrettin Onur Bektaş, and Emre Alp

Urbanization exacerbates runoff, peak flow unpredictability, deterioration of water quality, and the Urban Heat Island Effect. Low-income, flood-prone areas are disproportionately impacted by weak governance and inadequate infrastructure. All of which influence water, energy, and equality balance. As preventing urban development is unfeasible, Low Impact Development (LID) provides a viable alternative. We offer a multi-scale framework that incorporates LID solutions for stormwater management in Ankara, Türkiye; therefore, filling the gap in holistic, multidisciplinary, and multiscale approaches via engineering and urban planner perspectives. Our framework contains: (i) Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)-Driven Pixel Scale Analysis of WorldView-4 images to create Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data using Random Forest (81.34% accuracy) on Google Earth Engine and SRTM-based slope and flow accumulation data. Using expert opinion and literature, we created and scored criteria matrices for LULC, slope, flow accumulation, and cost. This resulted in detailed LID suitability maps via the MCDM algorithm by the R programming language. (ii) Expert-Driven Neighborhood Scale Analysis for prioritization of LID based on urban parameters such as slope, surface morphology, population density, impervious surfaces, road networks, and runoff hotspots by the junction areas that emerge from the overlapping of the areas. Bioretention cells are suggested for 42.9% of the research area, rain barrels for 19.6%, and vegetative filter strips for 1.4%. Expert-Driven analysis facilitates prioritizing, whereas MCDM-Driven analysis gives pixel-level LID placement recommendations. This scalable, multidisciplinary framework provides a solid model for urban water management that may influence urban planners and policymakers in Ankara and other cities throughout the world.

How to cite: Şenocak, İ., Şimşek, G., Afshar, M. H., Tuna, A., Çakıcı Alp, S., Bektaş, H. O., and Alp, E.: Assessment of Low Impact Development Strategies with Multi-Scale, Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approaches for Urban Flood Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-513, 2025.

This paper presents the complex interactions between river systems and Vienna’s urban development through historical, infrastructural, and contemporary perspectives, with a particular focus on the role of water infrastructure in shaping spatial planning and urban dynamics. By analyzing historical maps, georeferenced data, and archaeological findings, the study reconstructs the changes in the Danube River and its tributaries during key phases of the city's development, including major interventions in river regulation and the urbanization of riverbanks.

A particular emphasis is placed on the 19th-century channelization of the Danube, which was implemented to reduce flood risks, improve navigation, and enable industrial growth. These processes significantly impacted natural hydrological characteristics, ecosystems, and the urban landscape. The regulation involved straightening the river’s course, and constructing protective embankments. These were important elements of Vienna’s transformation into an industrial and economic hub of Central Europe. Additionally, the channelization of streams in the urban area contributed to public health improvements but also led to further fragmentation of natural watercourses.

In the contemporary context, the paper addresses renaturation projects and the reintegration of water systems into urban spaces to achieve sustainable development and improve human quality of life. These initiatives aim to balance ecological, social, and economic aspects by creating multifunctional spaces that integrate natural processes with urban needs.

The findings highlight the importance of a historical and interdisciplinary approach to understanding the relationship between river systems and urban development. Integrating these insights into contemporary planning provides a framework for effective water resource management, preservation of natural heritage, and promotion of sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Vranešević, M., Knežević, M., and Haidvogl, G.: From Flood Control to Ecological Balance through The Evolution of Vienna’s Relationship with the Danube and Its Tributaries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1848, 2025.

Pharmaceutical pollution in urban water poses a significant threat to coastal ecosystems, particularly in regions with rapid urbanization. This study investigates the source, occurrence, and distribution of pharmaceutical compounds (PCs) in agriculture runoff and treated wastewater (TWW) used for irrigation within urban coastal zones in eastern Saudi Arabia. Water samples were collected from TWW irrigation (2 samples) and agriculture runoff channels (10 samples) to identify and quantify the pharmaceutical pollution. The agricultural runoff samples were collected from fields irrigated with TWW and fields irrigated by groundwater (GW) for comparative study. Water samples were analyzed for 50 PCs using Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry with Direct Injection (LCMS–DI) and followed the  US EPA Method 1694. The results show that 12 PCs were detected in both water sources, including caffeine, carbamazepine, iohexol, sulfamethazine, valsartan, atenolol, diclofenac, furosemide, gabapentin, hydrochlorothiazide, naproxen, and paracetamol. Among those compounds,  caffeine, iohexol, valsartan, sulfamethazine, and gabapentin were detected with frequencies of 100%, 60%, 50%, 30%, and 20%, respectively. The remaining compounds were detected with a frequency of <20%. The results reveal that the highest concentration of PCs was observed in the main agricultural drainage channel in downstream regions. This probably reflects the cumulative input of PCs from upstream tributaries. Additionally, agricultural runoff from fields irrigated with GW contains only caffeine and sulfamethazine pollutants. However, in regions irrigated with TWW, twelve PCs were detected. The potential source for PCs in agriculture runoff from fields irrigated with GW is the manure fertilizer, which is commonly used in the study area. However, in regions irrigated with TWW, the PCs were most probably sourced from TWW irrigation. The study findings suggest enhancing wastewater treatment with advanced techniques to remove emerging pollutants and to protect the aquatic ecosystem. In addition, the study contributed to a better understanding of the urban watershed dynamics and provides insights that can inform sustainable urban water management practices, especially in urban agricultural regions where TWW is utilized for irrigation.

How to cite: Benaafi, M.: Pharmaceutical Pollution in Urban Coastal Watersheds of Eastern Saudi Arabia: Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2030, 2025.

EGU25-3124 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Evaluating the Role of Building Representation in Flood Dynamics: Insights from the 2021 Ahr Valley Flood 

Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Nithila Devi Nallasamy, and Heiko Apel

The growing flood risk in urban areas, driven by urbanization and climate change, underscores the need for accurate building representation in flood hydrodynamic models. This study examines the effects of three representation methods—Building Block (BB), Building Hole (BH), and Building Resistance (BR)—on flood modeling during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood, analyzing their impact on flood extent, water depths, and flow velocities across different model resolutions.

Our findings reveal that building representation significantly influences flood dynamics. The BB and BH methods generally result in larger flooded areas, deeper water, and faster flows, while increased resistance or omitting buildings leads to smaller extents, shallower water, and slower flows. The choice of representation is especially critical at coarser resolutions, where the BH method yields the most accurate flood extents, while increased resistance performs better at finer scales. Although all methods achieve reasonable flood extent predictions, variations in water depths and velocities emphasize the importance of selecting the right approach for accurate flood impact assessments, particularly in dense urban areas. Finally our results highlight that tailoring building representation to model resolution is crucial for improving urban flood modeling and impact accuracy.

How to cite: Khosh Bin Ghomash, S., Devi Nallasamy, N., and Apel, H.: Evaluating the Role of Building Representation in Flood Dynamics: Insights from the 2021 Ahr Valley Flood, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3124, 2025.

Urbanization has increased impervious surfaces, intensifying disaster risks in urban areas, particularly with climate change. Rainwater pumping stations and stormwater drainage systems are crucial for mitigating internal flooding, but their independent operation limits overall effectiveness. While integrated management of drainage facilities, including pumping stations, has been suggested, the development of systems to maximize existing technologies remains insufficient. Additionally, discharging stormwater into rivers to mitigate internal flooding can exacerbate external flooding by raising river water levels.

This study aims to integrate XP-SWMM and HEC-RAS to simulate internal runoff and surface flooding, model flood mitigation facility operations, and analyze river water level changes caused by lateral inflows in urban watersheds. The XP-SWMM model enables comprehensive runoff and 2D flood analyses, accounting for stormwater networks and hydraulic structures. Calibration and validation using water level data from Sebyeong Bridge in the Oncheoncheon watershed demonstrated good agreement between observed and simulated levels.

Lateral inflows for HEC-RAS were estimated by dividing the Oncheoncheon watershed using the Euclidean Allocation method. Initially divided into 133 sub-watersheds based on pipe connections, refinements led to 37 sub-watersheds by considering tributaries and further to 26 using contour data. Runoff hydrographs for the 26 sub-watersheds were generated using a 100-year return period 1-hour rainfall distributed via Huff's third quartile distribution.

These hydrographs were applied to HEC-RAS as lateral inflows. Terrain data were based on the ⌜Oncheoncheon River Master Plan (Busan Metropolitan City, 2017)⌟. Due to instability in upstream steep slope areas, these sections were excluded from simulations, focusing on watersheds with stormwater runoff reduction facilities. The upstream boundary condition utilized runoff from watershed 1, and the downstream boundary condition applied the 100-year base flood level. Stability was verified by assessing bridge cross-section water levels and time-step consistency.

Through HEC-RAS simulations incorporating lateral inflows, this study provides insights into optimizing operational rules for flood mitigation facilities, aiming to reduce both internal and external flooding via SWMM and HEC-RAS integration.

How to cite: Kang, J., Kim, K., Kim, J., Lee, S. I., and Jun, H.: Analysis of River Water Level Variability Based on Discharge Rates from Flood Mitigation Facilities Using SWMM+RAS for Preventing Internal and External Flooding in Urban Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4005, 2025.

EGU25-4363 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Assessing the impacting factors responsible for the variation in the throughfall rate of black pine trees in diverse urban climates 

Yusuf Oluwasegun Ogunfolaji, Mark Bryan Alivio, Kamilla Orosz, András Herceg, Péter Kalicz, Katalin Anita Zagyvai-Kiss, Zoltán Gribovszki, and Nejc Bezak

The contribution of trees in altering the hydrological cycle necessitates evaluating the effects of meteorological conditions, leaf cover, seasonal variations, and rainfall magnitude on throughfall beneath pine tree canopy across different climates. Understanding trees' rainfall interception characteristics is essential for effective urban greenery planning and stormwater management. Thus, this study aimed to examine the influencing factors that are responsible for the variation in the throughfall rate of black pine trees (Pinus nigra Arnold) in diverse urban climates. To achieve the aim of this study, we analyzed gross rainfall and throughfall at two research experimental sites in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia, and the city of Sopron, Hungary. The measurement period spanned from September 2023 to September 2024, with 42 and 51 rainfall events recorded at the sites, respectively. Both manual and automatic meteorological measurements were conducted at each site.

The mean throughfall over the measurement period was 45% in Ljubljana and 50% in Sopron, with average rainfall intensities of 2.02 mm/h and 1.96 mm/h, respectively. Throughfall patterns were analyzed across phenological and calendar seasons and rainfall magnitude. Both sites exhibited similar seasonal trends, but Sopron consistently had higher throughfall than Ljubljana in both phenological periods, with throughfall percentages increasing as rainfall magnitude increased. Throughfall was higher in Sopron during autumn, winter, and spring, whereas Ljubljana had higher throughfall in summer. The difference between the leafed and leafless seasons was 2.0% in Ljubljana and 1.9% in Sopron, with higher throughfall recorded during the leafless period at both sites.

The impact of the meteorological variables and canopy characteristics on throughfall across the year, leafed, and leafless periods was investigated using the regression tree (RT) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models. Rainfall amount was the primary predictor in all cases, but secondary factors varied by site and season. RT analysis showed that relative humidity and leaf area index (LAI) impacted throughfall in Ljubljana, while relative humidity, LAI, and rainfall duration were significant in Sopron during the year. Seasonal variations affected these influences, with rainfall amount impacting throughfall only during the leafless period, while wind speed and relative humidity played key roles in the leafed season for Ljubljana and Sopron, respectively. BRT analysis further confirmed that relative humidity influenced throughfall year-round at both sites. Furthermore, rainfall intensity and wind speed became critical during the leafed season in Ljubljana and the leafless season in Sopron.

The 5% variance in the mean throughfall observed between the two locations underscores the effect of microclimatic conditions and canopy attributes on the interception of rainfall by a pine tree canopy. These findings strengthen the need for site-specific hydrological assessments to enhance tree-based stormwater management practices in urban environments.

Acknowledgment: This study is part of ongoing research entitled "Microscale influence on runoff" supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (N2-0313) and National Research, Development, and Innovation Office (OTKA project grant number SNN143972). The work was also supported through the Ph.D. grant of the first author which is financially supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency.

How to cite: Ogunfolaji, Y. O., Alivio, M. B., Orosz, K., Herceg, A., Kalicz, P., Zagyvai-Kiss, K. A., Gribovszki, Z., and Bezak, N.: Assessing the impacting factors responsible for the variation in the throughfall rate of black pine trees in diverse urban climates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4363, 2025.

EGU25-5228 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Designing Nature-based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction by coupling surface water modelling with participatory sciences in a peri-urban neighbourhood in El Salvador 

Christian Pyerin, Stephan Hörbinger, Carlos Ernesto Grande-Ayala, Hans Peter Rauch, and Sandra Gutiérrez Poizat

Semi-formal neighbourhoods face complex social, economic and environmental challenges, of which many are related to poorly coordinated land and water management. Reduced vegetation and surface sealing combined with the lack of a sewage system lead to high surface water runoff, which results in increasing pluvial flooding, erosion, and landslides. Mitigation measures are often implemented by individual residents in the form of low-cost Nature-based Solutions (NbS), but implemented measures frequently lead to negative impacts further downhill. The effects of climate change are increasing hazard intensities and therefore, hydro-meteorological risks.

The aim of this study is to support the design of NbS by coupling pluvial flood modelling with participatory methods. The use of numerical models to describe surface water runoff and to analyse the effects of NbS has been applied often. Nevertheless, the calibration and validation of urban surface runoff models and the choice of appropriate solutions remains challenging.

This study uses the coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS to simulate pluvial flooding in selected precipitation events by utilizing Rain-on-Grid modelling, and to quantify the potential effects of selected NbS. The validation and calibration of the model is supported by flow paths, identified problem sites and flooding depths during historical precipitation events, which were determined during a participatory mapping workshop.

To find appropriate solutions interviews and transect walks were conducted along with the participatory mapping workshop as a basis to discuss, design, and locate low-cost, self-implementable NbS. These were implemented in the model to evaluate the effectiveness of potential solutions.

The results are expected to demonstrate the ability of this conceptual approach to utilize local knowledge to design implementable and effective NbS to reduce hydro-meteorological risks. Furthermore, this study shows how local knowledge and participatory mapping can be used to validate urban surface runoff models. The quantification of proposed NbS effects can support the implementation of suggested measures.

How to cite: Pyerin, C., Hörbinger, S., Grande-Ayala, C. E., Rauch, H. P., and Gutiérrez Poizat, S.: Designing Nature-based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction by coupling surface water modelling with participatory sciences in a peri-urban neighbourhood in El Salvador, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5228, 2025.

EGU25-5277 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Effect of Permeable Block Performance on the Urban Water Cycle 

Hyojung Lee, Jongmin Kim, and Hyunsuk Shin

Due to the rapid changes in precipitation patterns resulting from ongoing climate change, urban watercycle problem associated with extreme rainfall events are becoming increasingly severe. In response, the Ministry of Environment of Korea introduced the concept of Low Impact Development (LID) in the 2000s and has implemented stormwater runoff reduction facilities nationwide. This study investigates the impact of permeable block performance, one of the most widely adopted LID facilities, on the water cycle in urban drainage.

Initially, experimental analyses were conducted to assess the fundamental performance and clogging-induced degradation of various types of permeable blocks. These evaluations focused on examining the basic functionality of the blocks and the impact of clogging on their performance. Based on the experimental findings, the SWMM model was employed to investigate the effects of permeable block performance on hydrological processes across watersheds of varying scales.

The results indicated that the application of permeable pavement significantly improved the water cycle regardless of watershed size, with the extent of improvement dependent on the coverage area of permeable pavement. Notably, infiltration showed the largest increase across all watersheds, followed by increased evaporation and reduced surface runoff. In terms of peak runoff, significant reductions were observed in watersheds where permeable pavement covered more than 10% of the total area, although the reduction effects were marginal in most regions.

An investigation into the effects of clogging revealed that, compared to the initial installation phase, infiltration decreased by up to 34.2%, evaporation by up to 3.2%, and surface runoff increased by 0.7%. Furthermore, the study confirmed that clogging had the most substantial impact on the performance of permeable blocks, with performance degradation becoming more pronounced as block porosity increased.

These findings highlight the necessity for future research to establish correlations between porosity and clogging and to identify optimal porosity levels. Moreover, effective policy interventions are required to mitigate the impact of clogging by preventing the ingress of debris from the surrounding environment.

 

Accknowledgement

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through R&D program for innovative flood protection technologies against climate crisis, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218973)

How to cite: Lee, H., Kim, J., and Shin, H.: Effect of Permeable Block Performance on the Urban Water Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5277, 2025.

EGU25-5605 | Orals | HS5.4.2 | Highlight

Urbanization and its impacts on ecosystem services and human well-beings in rapidly urbanizing watersheds 

Qingxu Huang, Yihan Zhou, Pengxin Wu, Yuchen Zhou, and Yansong Bai

Urbanizing watersheds face challenges from both human and nature systems. Our research group focuses on urbanization and its impacts on human-nature systems at the watershed scale. First, we measured the built-up area expansion across global watersheds. Then, we investigated the supply and demand of ecosystem services (e.g., soil conservation, water provision and cultural services) based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, Solves model and online big data, in Guanting Reservoir Basin, a transitional ecosystem from semi-arid areas to arid areas. Then, we examined how urbanization affect the ecosystem services received and realized by local urban and rural residents of this Basin, in the context of Ecological Civilizaton, and Poverty Alleviation Relocation (PAR) Initiative in China. Our results exhibted unique characteristics of ecosystem services and human well-beings in rapidly urbanizing watersheds and can provide policy implications for similar basins

How to cite: Huang, Q., Zhou, Y., Wu, P., Zhou, Y., and Bai, Y.: Urbanization and its impacts on ecosystem services and human well-beings in rapidly urbanizing watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5605, 2025.

EGU25-5807 | Orals | HS5.4.2

Tracing urban Drinking water sources using isotope techniques: insights and applications 

Lucía Ortega and the CRP team members

Climate change, inter-annual precipitation variability, recurrent droughts, and flash flooding, combined with increasing water demands, are influencing the evolution of socioeconomic and cultural structures, water laws, and equitable access to drinking water worldwide. To address the need for strategies to ensure drinking water availability in urban areas, the Isotope Hydrology Section of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conducted a comprehensive global assessment titled ‘Use of Isotope Techniques for the Evaluation of Water Sources for Domestic Supply in Urban Areas (2018–2023)’. This initiative aimed to evaluate water sources and the distribution of drinking water supply in urban centres using isotopic tools.

The project successfully covered (a) current research trends in studying urban drinking water systems over the past two decades and (b) the development, testing, and integration of new methodologies for better assessment, mapping, and management of water resources used for drinking water supply in urban settings. Examples of water isotope applications from countries such as Canada, USA, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Morocco, Botswana, Romania, Slovenia, India, and Nepal provide context to the insights and recommendations presented, demonstrating the versatility of water isotopes in capturing seasonal and temporal variations across different environmental and climate scenarios.

The study found that urban areas rely on a diverse range of water sources, including mountain recharge, extensive local groundwater extraction, and water transfer from nearby or distant river basins. This diversity is reflected in the spatial isotope snapshot variability. High-resolution monitoring (hourly and sub-hourly) revealed significant diurnal variations in the wet tropics (Costa Rica) (up to 1.5‰ in δ18O) and more uniform diurnal variations in urban centres supplied by groundwater sources (0.08‰ in δ18O) (Ljubljana, Slovenia). Additionally, while d-excess values were generally close to the global mean (+10‰) across all urban centres (10‰–15‰), reservoir-based drinking water systems showed lower values (up to ~ −20‰) (Arlington, TX, USA and Gaborone, Botswana) due to strong evapoconcentration processes. δ18O time series and depth-integrated sampling highlighted the influence of the catchment damping ratio on the final intake water composition.

By introducing new, traceable spatial and temporal tools that span from the water source to the end-user and are linked to the engineered and socioeconomic structure of the water distribution system, governmental, regional, or community-based water operators and practitioners can enhance drinking water treatment strategies (including more accurate surface water blending estimations) and improve urban water management and conservation plans in the context of global warming.

How to cite: Ortega, L. and the CRP team members: Tracing urban Drinking water sources using isotope techniques: insights and applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5807, 2025.

EGU25-6663 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

A GIS-based tool for identifying areas for nature-based solutions to aid water companies in a green first approach to reduce combined sewer overflows 

Jessica Kitch, Mandy Robinson, Benjamin Jackson, Marwa Waly, Zhangjie Peng, Diego Panici, and Richard Brazier

Combined sewer spills are a significant environmental concern in the United Kingdom and other countries where rain and wastewater are not separated during storms. In recent years, the pollutant impacts of sewer spills on water bodies have received increasing scrutiny. Public awareness and monitoring efforts have consequently grown due to extensive media coverage, highlighting the scale of the issue. The UK Storm Overflows Discharge Reduction Plan sets strict targets for water companies to reduce the number of spills per year. Traditionally, the water industry has relied on grey infrastructure, such as storm tanks, to mitigate storm overflow impacts. However, there is growing recognition of the benefits of green infrastructure, particularly nature-based solutions. While urban-focused Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) and end-of-pipe treatments are common, permeable runoff contributions to combined sewer networks are often overlooked, representing a gap in current approaches. Permeable areas, like parkland or agricultural fields, are often large and, although permeable, overland flow can still occur and reach the sewer networks. Therefore, it is crucial to identify permeable areas that have potential to contribute to surface runoff entering the combined sewer and ideally, put in place solutions to mitigate this risk.

To address this, a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool set within ArcGIS Pro environment, and an equivalent R-based open-source tool has been developed to support water companies in identifying permeable areas with potential for nature-based solutions to reduce overland flow into combined sewer systems. The tool uses spatial layers as inputs and incorporates multiple options to allow for customisation, whilst also accounting for barriers (e.g. hedges and walls) that may interrupt overland flow. Overall, these features help address the topographic complexities of the urban fringe. The final output from the toolbox provides a layer that consists of any potential permeable areas that could drain to the inlets for the combined sewer network and consequently contribute to combined sewer overflows.

The output from the tool identifies permeable areas draining to the combined sewer, as well as areas for potential sites for nature-based solutions. This geospatial data can be further evaluated through desktop and field surveys to confirm a locations suitability for nature-based solutions. Integration with UK Industry standard hydraulic models such as InfoWorks, enables a comprehensive assessment of the potential benefits of solutions. The tool has currently been applied in the 1,800 km2 Tamar catchment, UK, demonstrating a pathway for the water industry to spatially prioritise green infrastructure, reduce storm overflows, and transition away from conventional grey solutions, aligning with a green first approach. And in turn, provide additional benefits such as ecosystem services, as well as being less costly than grey infrastructure solutions.

How to cite: Kitch, J., Robinson, M., Jackson, B., Waly, M., Peng, Z., Panici, D., and Brazier, R.: A GIS-based tool for identifying areas for nature-based solutions to aid water companies in a green first approach to reduce combined sewer overflows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6663, 2025.

EGU25-6745 | Orals | HS5.4.2

Morphometric properties and hydrological responses of sewer networks: cases studies from France. 

Nanée Chahinian, Mohamad Achour, Mame Mbayang Thiam, Katia Chancibault, Hervé Andrieu, and Roger Moussa

Catchment morphology and river network structure greatly condition hydrological response to flooding. While scaling laws have been established for natural catchments and Optimal Channel Networks (OCNs) (Rinaldo and Rodriguez-Iturbe, 1997; Moussa, 2003 & 2009), fewer works have looked into artificial urban water networks, namely stormwater and sewer networks. Optimal Channel Networks (OCNs) are defined based on a generative geomorphological mechanism minimizing the total energy dissipation. However, man-made networks are conceived based on engineering efficiency taking governed by local optimizations, both in time and space, for minimal costs. Hence questions arise regarding the applicability of OCN scaling laws to sewer networks and their potential impact on the shape of the Geomorphological Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (GIUH).

This work addresses these issues through a case study on twelve nested subcatchments of the Greater Paris combined sewer system (France). A two-step methodology is used. First, the morphometric properties are analysed using the reference Horton-Strahler, Rodríguez-Iturbe and Moussa-Bocquillon scaling laws. They are used in the second step to calculate four GIUHs: the reference Width Function (GWF), the Nash unit hydrograph (GN) using Horton-Strahler ratios, the Nash Unit Hydrograph equivalent (GNe) using Moussa- Bocquillon descriptors, and the Hayami function (GH) solution of the diffusive wave equation (Achour et al., 2023).

In an effort to generalize the methodology to smaller catchments and Separate Sewer System (SSS), a case study is presented on a sub-network of the city of Montpellier (Southern France). The preliminary results show the need to adapt catchment delimitation methods. Indeed, while hillslopes are the main contributing areas to water flow in natural rivers, the flow in sewer networks is generated by individual production units such as residential, industrial and commercial units. Hence the methods traditionally used to automatically extract hydrographic networks from digital terrain models (DTMs) and delimit catchment boundaries lead to an overestimation of contributing areas. Thus, the geomorphological properties of Moussa and the power law of Rodriguez-Iturbe were not verified.

How to cite: Chahinian, N., Achour, M., Mbayang Thiam, M., Chancibault, K., Andrieu, H., and Moussa, R.: Morphometric properties and hydrological responses of sewer networks: cases studies from France., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6745, 2025.

EGU25-8211 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Exploring the Role of Multivariate Observations in Urban Flood Prediction: A Data Assimilation Approach 

Bomi Kim, Yaewon Lee, Seungsoo Lee, and Seong Jin Noh

In this study, we present a probabilistic urban inundation modeling framework that combines high-resolution process-based modeling with observed information via ensemble data assimilation (DA). We investigate the impact of multivariate flood observations on improving urban inundation prediction accuracy through synthetic experiments. The framework leverages diverse flood observations from both the urban surface and sewer system, integrating them into the modeling process using non-Gaussian sequential DA methods, such as particle filtering. The modeling framework employs the H12 model for integrated 1D sewer network and 2D surface inundation analyses, with synthetic experiments conducted in an urban catchment in Osaka, Japan. Prior to implementing DA, a sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the effects of uncertainties in inundation modeling. Major uncertainty components, such as input forcings and storm drain box efficiency, are perturbed to evaluate their influence. The synthetic DA experiments analyze the influence of various types of flood observations, including urban surface inundation depths and sewer water levels, on the posterior distributions of the model ensemble. Additionally, the impact of observation location and density on DA performance is evaluated. This study demonstrates the potential of utilizing diverse flood observations in data assimilation to enhance the accuracy and reliability of urban flood predictions.

How to cite: Kim, B., Lee, Y., Lee, S., and Noh, S. J.: Exploring the Role of Multivariate Observations in Urban Flood Prediction: A Data Assimilation Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8211, 2025.

EGU25-8838 | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Development of Experimental Facilities for Urban Flood Monitoring and Evaluation Method. 

Sanghwa Jung and Jongmin Kim

In the past, urban floods were primarily caused by river overflow due to insufficient conveyance capacity and inadequate infrastructure. However, in recent years, domestic flooding resulting from unplanned urban development has been identified as a major cause. To defend against and prevent urban floods, effective monitoring of urban infrastructure is essential, along with real-time analysis of monitoring data. However, current standards and methodologies for implementing such monitoring systems are insufficient.

This study aims to develop monitoring techniques for obtaining accurate flow data from key urban flood defense infrastructure and to establish methods for real-time evaluation of urban flow rates using data collected from various infrastructure components. The major urban flood defense infrastructure addressed in this study includes in-city elements, such as sewage pipes, rainwater pipes, sidewalks, underground reservoirs, and pump facilities, as well as out-of-city features like natural reservoirs. The experimental facility is designed to allow all infrastructure components to operate both organically and independently, depending on the experimental purpose. This study focuses on the construction and design of these facilities.

The experimental facilities are broadly categorized into urban floodplains, underground infrastructure, and out-of-city infrastructure. The urban floodplain replicates in-city infrastructure with a width of 35 meters and a length of 25 meters. It includes classified rainwater pipes, sidewalks, and a surface area designed to incorporate Low-Impact Development (LID) techniques in future experiments. The underground infrastructure features a network of rainwater pipes, underground reservoirs, collection systems, and pumping stations, designed to handle a maximum flow of 2 m³/s. The entire site is equipped to apply various monitoring techniques, with the construction of the experimental facilities planned in three phases, to be completed by 2026.

 

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through R&D program for innovative flood protection technologies against climate crisis, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218973)

How to cite: Jung, S. and Kim, J.: Development of Experimental Facilities for Urban Flood Monitoring and Evaluation Method., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8838, 2025.

EGU25-11755 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Water temperature of urban streams - climate change adaptation 

Helene Mueller, Jürgen Kleiner, Philipp Stern, and Hans Peter Rauch

Urban streams climate change adaptation

Müller Helene, Kleiner Jürgen, Philipp Stern, Rauch Hans Peter

 

Urban water courses are a system under pressure. Either they have been modified in the past, banned in the underground or even inundated in the sewage system. Within the north western part of the city of Vienna (research area: city of Vienna in the north of Wien river + in the west of Donaukanal) the runoff of a riparian catchment area of 20.8 km² arrives at the waste water treatment plant.  The ecological pressure, heavily modified water bodies are bothered with, is intensified by climate change. Despite these circumstances, the urban water courses should provide flood security as well as low flow security. In order to derive resilient systems restoration is essential. Within an urban context the spectrum reaches from water quality improvements, morphological restoration to reactivation of water courses in the underground or in the sewage system. The list of benefits is long, it covers the generation of urban blue green infrastructure (BGI), which can help with urban heat island (UIH) mitigation and leads to additional recreational areas, the availability of an additional water source in the urban area and many other ecosystem services. Regarding climate change and low flow situations the thermal regime of rivers is addressed. To restrict the warming of the water temperature shading via vegetation is an important factor. Within the research project ProBach a testfield of three artificial and temporal limited waterbodies (two running waters one stagnant waterbody) was installed in spring 2024 at an asphalted spot at the Klimabiennale in Vienna. In the context of installing BGI elements via urban river reactivation for UHI mitigation microclimatic, social, technical and river ecology related questions have been addressed. Regarding the latter, physio-chemical and biological water quality parameters were observed. The focus of the work presented in the poster is water temperature as a major factor for cooling the effects of water bodies. The interrelationship between water body, its riparian vegetation and the associated shading effects were observed.  The water temperature was monitored in a testbed, 7.8 m long and 80 cm broad, and a discharge of 1 l/s within a circular system. Natural riparian vegetation was simulated by shading nets with UV permeability of 60%. The water temperature was recorded by nine HOBO sensors at different positions of the riverbed (on the sediment, in the sediment, in the sump), air temperature was collected by eight TOMST sensors in 1.5 m height. During a heat period in July 2024 shaded and unshaded measuring campaigns were carried out repeatedly. The artificial shading of the water bodies impacts the water temperature significantly. The findings highlight the importance of riparian vegetation while restoring and reactivating water courses within an urban context in order to generate resilient, vital and climate change resistant river systems.  

How to cite: Mueller, H., Kleiner, J., Stern, P., and Rauch, H. P.: Water temperature of urban streams - climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11755, 2025.

EGU25-12433 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Pluvial flooding Dynamic Mapping under Historical Climatic Conditions in Rome, Italy  

Edna Jessica Wilches Kochinski, Sabrina Lanciotti, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Fabio Russo, and Francesco Napolitano

Urban pluvial flooding is increasingly recognized as a critical issue due to its rising frequency and severity in many cities worldwide. This study aims to develop dynamic maps at suburban scales for flood risk assessment in the city of Rome, Italy, focusing on the impacts on critical transport linear infrastructures, such as roads. Dynamic mapping incorporates temporal changes in environmental conditions (such as rainfall intensity, water levels, and storm surges), human activities (like population movements and daily routines), infrastructure status (e.g., drainage capacity and road networks), and other socio-economic variables (such as adaptive capacity and community resilience) to capture how flood risk evolves over time. For this case study, dynamic pluvial flood hazard maps are developed by using the rain-on-grid model from HEC-RAS, i.e. a 2D hydrodynamic model designed to simulate surface water flow over a grid-based terrain. In this setup, rainfall is applied directly onto each cell of a high-resolution digital DSM, creating a rain-on-grid scenario where precipitation generates surface runoff that flows across the landscape. This approach captures detailed interactions between rainfall intensity, topography, and surface flow dynamics, making it suitable for urban areas. The analyzed data includes series of synthetic precipitation hyetographs that are estimated using Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves derived from rain gage data located in the study area. These synthetic hyetographs represent return periods of 2, 5, 25, 50, and 100 years, with durations of 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 minutes, which represent different precipitation intensities to produce a sensitivity analysis under different return periods and rainfall durations. Also, observed storm events are assessed to calibrate and validate the model. It is worth to mention that this model does not consider the drainage system, thus results are in favour of safety.

How to cite: Wilches Kochinski, E. J., Lanciotti, S., Ridolfi, E., Moccia, B., Russo, F., and Napolitano, F.: Pluvial flooding Dynamic Mapping under Historical Climatic Conditions in Rome, Italy , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12433, 2025.

EGU25-13735 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Low-cost electronic sensors for continuous performance monitoring of raingardens 

Carola Marella, Arianna Dada, Brandon Winfrey, and Giovanna Grossi

Key Points:

  •  Affordable sensors allow continuous monitoring of soil moisture and hydrological performance in rain gardens.
  • Using sensors for predictive maintenance lowers expenses and increases the longevity of rain gardens.

 Rain gardens (RG) are essential for sustainable stormwater management, but their effectiveness relies on consistent maintenance, which is both critical and costly. This study explores the use of low-cost electronic sensors to monitor biofilter conditions and enable predictive maintenance, reducing manual inspections and improving operational efficiency.The experiment involved 15 laboratory-scale columns, replicating the typical structure of rain gardens, with stratified layers: a ponding zone, fine sand filter, coarse sand with mulch transition layer and a gravel drainage layer. The columns were divided into three groups to simulate different conditions: a control group (C) representing optimal performance, a group with preferential flow paths (P) simulating surface erosion, and one with surface clogging (S) due to sediment accumulation. Each column had five sensors to monitor soil moisture and temperature: two Chameleon Soil Water Sensors, two temperature probes, and one Truebner SMT 100 sensors. Data were collected in real time and transmitted to a cloud-based system. To evaluate the columns, simulated rainfall events, reflecting varying intensities and antecedent dry periods based on Melbourne’s historical weather patterns, were applied. The SMT sensor effectively tracked volumetric water content (VWC), identifying peaks from simulated rainfall events and showing variability across different antecedent dry days (ADD). However, Chameleon sensors exhibited performance degradation over time due to soil drying, root growth, and temperature variations. Inflow, outflow, and infiltration rates were measured to assess hydrological behavior, but these data alone were insufficient to differentiate healthy from malfunctioning systems. Consequently, indices were developed to differentiate the hydraulic performance of each group. Parameters such as peak time, peak span, and delay time were identified as notable in diagnosing operational states. For instance, the clogging group exhibited delayed response times and retained less water. In contrast, preferential flow columns displayed immediate responses to rainfall. Post-experimentation, the columns were disassembled to analyze physical changes in soil stratigraphy and assess root development, providing additional insights into the impact of hydraulic malfunctions on overall system health. In conclusion, this research underscores the potential of integrating low-cost sensor technologies into the management of rain gardens. Real-time monitoring not only enhances the reliability and longevity of these systems but also reduces operational costs, contributing to the broader goal of fostering resilient and sustainable urban environments. Future research should refine sensor applications and expand testing under diverse environmental conditions.

How to cite: Marella, C., Dada, A., Winfrey, B., and Grossi, G.: Low-cost electronic sensors for continuous performance monitoring of raingardens, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13735, 2025.

EGU25-13955 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Combining multi-sensor data and machine learning for improved wastewater contamination detection in stormwater systems 

Luka Vucinic, Conor Lydon, Hakim Mezali, Peter McConvey, Tom McIntyre, Fatima Ajia, Maria Isabel Freitas da Silva Vucinic, David O'Connell, Catherine Coxon, and Laurence Gill

Stormwater drainage generally flows untreated into receiving waters, such as rivers, groundwater, and the sea. Stormwater networks can serve as pathways for contamination to enter receiving waters. Misconnections, illicit connections and discharges, overflows, and leaks from damaged sewers are the primary causes of such contamination. These issues not only degrade water quality, posing public health and environmental risks, but also create a range of expensive operational challenges for water and wastewater companies.

Detecting wastewater contamination and tracing its entry points into stormwater systems remains a significant challenge predominantly due to various potential sources of incoming wastewater, dilution and dispersion of contaminants by tributary stormwater flows, and significant differences in consistency, regularity, and flow rate of inflows.

We conducted an investigation on an urban stormwater pipeline in the UK suspected of receiving wastewater from multiple misconnections. The aim of the investigation was to determine whether the stormwater system was being impacted so that the statutory undertaker could address the contamination issues and improve the quality of the receiving water environment. The source of the misconnections was uncertain prior to the investigation but it was suspected that they may have been inputs from domestic households, small to medium-sized businesses, or both. The study employed a comprehensive approach combining water sampling for microbiological indicators (total coliforms and E. coli) and an array of chemical analyses, including trace elements, organics, nutrients, petroleum hydrocarbons, and volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds. The collection of grab samples was complemented by the use of a Proteus multi-sensor sonde (Proteus Instruments, UK), which measured parameters such as tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF), chromophoric / fluorescent dissolved organic matter (CDOM/fDOM), electrical conductivity, pH, ORP, turbidity, temperature, ammonium (NH4), and dissolved oxygen (DO). Moreover, data collected with the multi-sensor sonde was used to model microbial parameter concentrations over a period of approximately three weeks. Two modelling approaches were tested: one following the methodology recommended by Proteus Instruments, and another employing the machine learning Random Forest method. The latter approach offers potential advantages in addressing challenges commonly associated with fluorescence-based sensors. The findings demonstrate the potential for enhanced detection of wastewater misconnections, providing a more efficient and accurate method for identifying sources of contamination within stormwater systems.

How to cite: Vucinic, L., Lydon, C., Mezali, H., McConvey, P., McIntyre, T., Ajia, F., Freitas da Silva Vucinic, M. I., O'Connell, D., Coxon, C., and Gill, L.: Combining multi-sensor data and machine learning for improved wastewater contamination detection in stormwater systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13955, 2025.

Urban trees play a significant role in reducing surface runoff through crown interception loss and root-enhanced infiltration. However, the effects of tree crown and roots on surface runoff are often simplified in the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). This study aims to evaluate stormwater benefits of an urban isolated tree combined with different ground covers through interception-infiltration-runoff processes using SWMM. The crown interception process during 15 rainfall events was measured using a weighing lysimeter and used to obtain the net rainfall (i.e., the rainfall amount reaching the ground surface beneath tree crown) that was input into the rain gauge for simulations. Additionally, the optimization of key hydrological parameters in the bio-retention cell was performed to determine an optimal set of parameters to represent the effect of target tree roots on the infiltration process. This optimal set of parameters was validated using experimental results from two irrigation-drainage events, and the results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) between simulated and measured results exceeded 0.9. According to the proposed simulation method that considers the effects of tree crown and roots on surface runoff, the interception-infiltration-runoff processes for different combinations of an isolated tree with tree pits, permeable pavement, and water-retaining pavement were analyzed during 15 rainfall events. The results revealed that the total surface runoff reduction from the isolated tree was 11.5%. Meanwhile, the simulation results for different combinations were compared to quantify stormwater benefits, including reductions in total and peak surface runoff. Based on rainfall characteristics (total rainfall amount and rainfall intensity) and surface runoff reduction, this study recommends optimal combination of the tree and ground covers to support urban greening design in stormwater management.

How to cite: Zhao, X. and Asawa, T.: Evaluating stormwater benefits of an urban isolated tree with different ground covers through interception-infiltration-runoff processes using Storm Water Management Model , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14318, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14318, 2025.

EGU25-14450 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Coupling stable isotopes and river networks connectivity to identify the linking between hydrology and water quality in a urban river-lake water system 

Hui Zhang, Xiang Zhang, Jing Xu, Shiyong Tao, Chaojie Li, and Yifan Yang

Accelerating urbanization development has a great impact on water environment with altered hydrological cycle process, deteriorating water quality and redistributed water quantity. In addition, urban river-lake networks have emerged as a blend of natural and engineered water environment under artificial transformation. However, water exchange relationships and pollution patterns in such water networks are complicated and poorly understood due to various disturbances from both nature and social activities. This study investigated water chemistry and stable isotopic tracers in the Dongsha River-Lake Networks (DRLN) in Wuhan, China, to enhance the understanding of hydrological connectivity and controlling factors of urban water pollution. The results indicated that domestic wastewater was the main pollution source in DRLN, significantly contributing to high nutrient levels, particularly in urban streams. Point sources such as domestic wastewater and industrial effluents exerted a more considerable influence on water quality in dry season with lower discharge. In contrast, during the wet season, non-point pollution increased due to rainfall-runoff carrying various pollutants on the landscape. Taking urban streams as the research object and considering precipitation, tap water, Yangtze River water and East Lake as water sources, the MIXSIAR model was adopted to analyze the differences in water sources of urban streams in different months and locations. Moreover, the variation of stable isotopes suggested that pollution patterns in river-lake networks were also shaped by interactions between waterbodies, and water exchanges were more frequent in summer. The water diversion from the Yangtze River (YR) effectively enhanced water quality in urban streams, but the improvement on East Lake was insufficient to affect the water quality in central areas. Therefore, more rational water management strategies in DRLN were urgently needed considering the impact of hydrological connectivity on water pollution distribution. Integration analysis of water chemistry and stable isotopes contributes to understanding the mechanisms of pollutant generation and transportation in complex urban water networks, and provides insights into anthropogenic impacts on urban water networks. 

How to cite: Zhang, H., Zhang, X., Xu, J., Tao, S., Li, C., and Yang, Y.: Coupling stable isotopes and river networks connectivity to identify the linking between hydrology and water quality in a urban river-lake water system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14450, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14450, 2025.

EGU25-14978 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

Vulnerability Assessment of Storm Water Drains using Bayesian Belief Network  

Jyotsna Pandey, Kavyalakshmi Sudhikumar, and Venkata Vemavarapu Srinivas

Urban flash floods have become increasingly frequent and severe, resulting in significant damage to lives, infrastructure, and the economy. A major contributor to urban flooding is the inability of stormwater drainage (SWD) systems to efficiently convey excess runoff, which often leads to localized failures and cascading disruptions across the network. Assessing the vulnerability of such systems becomes crucial for developing effective flood risk mitigation strategies. While conventional hydrodynamic models (e.g., SWMM, MIKE) are essential for predicting flood-related characteristics (e.g., peak flow/depth, duration) and inundation extents, they are limited in their ability to evaluate vulnerabilities within the system under rapidly changing rainfall patterns and account for uncertainties in decision-making processes. These limitations highlight the need for alternative approaches to analyze and address network vulnerabilities under dynamic conditions. The present study explores the potential of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach to evaluate vulnerabilities within the SWD system. This approach leverages the topological structure of drainage systems to assess interdependencies among components and flood-causing factors to better understand the cascading impacts of localized failures on the system-wide performance of a SWD network. The proposed BBN approach is tested on the Bangalore SWD network to identify critical zones under varying hydraulic loads. By providing probabilistic insights, BBNs enable a more comprehensive understanding of flood risk and improve decision-making under uncertainty. The findings of the study demonstrate the potential of BBN as a powerful tool for urban flood risk assessment and offer a comprehensive framework to strengthen flood resilience and guide infrastructural rehabilitation, planning, and management.

 

How to cite: Pandey, J., Sudhikumar, K., and Srinivas, V. V.: Vulnerability Assessment of Storm Water Drains using Bayesian Belief Network , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14978, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14978, 2025.

EGU25-15166 | Orals | HS5.4.2

Urban flood resilience assessment under compounding risk: joint impacts of precipitation and river level 

Li Gong, Xiang Zhang, Zhou Guo, Ryan Winston, Shiyong Tao, and Joseph Smith

Flood resilience assessment has become increasingly important for effective stormwater management in the context of frequent and severe urban flooding disasters. The severity of flooding in riverine cities is influenced by various factors, such as rainfall and river levels, but resilience assessments usually only consider the impact of heavy rainfall. Given the lack of urban flood resilience assessment under compounding risks, this study proposes a performance-based resilience assessment method considering the joint impacts of precipitation and river level, using a lake basin in Wuhan City as an example. Based on urban water system theory, the resilience assessment framework considered three subsystems’ resilience, i.e. the performance of the pipe network, the residual storage capacity of lakes, and the available discharge capacity of pumps. The Copula function was used to quantitatively assess the joint distribution characteristics of daily rainfall and the Yangtze River water level in Wuhan. A SWMM model was developed for hydrological simulation and resilience assessment under composite scenarios. Considering only the impact of precipitation would underestimate flooding risk relative to the joint effects of precipitation and river water level. The resilience index of the pipe network was the highest among the three subsystems, whereas that of the lake system was the most variable. For the same return period rainfall, the decrease in resilience of the pump system was the most pronounced as the river water level rose from 22.06 m to 29.25 m. In addition, the higher the rainfall magnitude, the more important it is to consider the jacking effects of the Yangtze River level on urban flooding. The proposed method evaluated the resilience-enhancing capacity of grey-green-blue infrastructures, and their combined effects were found to be non-linear. This research proposed a resilience assessment method founded upon joint risk and provided valuable feedback for developing effective flood resilient management strategies in riverine cities.

How to cite: Gong, L., Zhang, X., Guo, Z., Winston, R., Tao, S., and Smith, J.: Urban flood resilience assessment under compounding risk: joint impacts of precipitation and river level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15166, 2025.

EGU25-15444 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Quantifying human health risks from contaminated urban floodwaters using a multi-model framework under climate and socio-economic scenarios 

Rahul Deopa, Debasish Mishra, Namendra Kumar Shahi, Vaibhav Tripathi, and Mohit Prakash Mohanty

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are profoundly disrupting regional hydrological cycles, altering precipitation regimes, intensifying temperature variations, and accelerating sea-level rise. These factors collectively exacerbate flood events and elevate associated risks, particularly for vulnerable urban communities. Although the hydrological impacts of floods are extensively documented, their role in propagating waterborne diseases and escalating public health risks remains inadequately explored. In Delhi, the national capital of India, urban flooding has inflicted substantial damage and numerous health challenges. Its location along the Yamuna River, dense population, unregulated urbanization, deficient drainage infrastructure, and increasingly extreme rainfall patterns driven by climate change are the key contributors to this dismal situation. This study, for the first time, develops an integrated framework to quantify human health risks associated with contaminated urban floodwaters in a flood-prone region under current and projected future scenarios by coupling climate and socio-economic dynamics. High-resolution hydro-meteorological data, including rainfall, streamflow, sewer flow, and water quality parameters, were analyzed alongside statistically downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios to evaluate future flood extremes. A multi-model framework was employed, combining a semi-distributed hydrological model, a three-way coupled hydrodynamic model, and a water quality model. The SWAT hydrological model simulated rainfall-runoff processes to estimate runoff, which served as input for the 3-way coupled MIKE+ hydrodynamic model. Outputs from the hydrodynamic simulations were integrated into the MIKE EcoLAB module to simulate the transport and fate of faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) under varying flood conditions. Human health risks associated with FIB exposure were quantified using the β-Poisson dose-response model. The proposed framework, which synergizes climate and socio-economic factors within a multi-model environment, is adaptable and can be applied to other flood-prone regions globally. By providing actionable insights, this study seeks to inform the development of resilience strategies to protect at-risk populations, addressing the critical need for sustainable flood risk management in developing and underdeveloped nations increasingly affected by climate change and socio-economic pressures.

How to cite: Deopa, R., Mishra, D., Kumar Shahi, N., Tripathi, V., and Prakash Mohanty, M.: Quantifying human health risks from contaminated urban floodwaters using a multi-model framework under climate and socio-economic scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15444, 2025.

EGU25-16233 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Flood forecasting and pumping station warning in urban areas to improve flood-resilience: The project PuwaSTAR 

Hannah Eckers, Oliver Buchholz, Daniela Falter, Georg Johann, Jorge Leandro, Issa Nafo, Judith Nijzink, Angela Pfister, Sebastian Ramsauer, and Felix Schmid

The catchment areas of the Lippeverband (and Emschergenossenschaft, EGLV) in Western Germany are characterized by former coal mining activities. In consequence extensive subsidence areas without drainage have developed. These often densely populated polder areas are dependent on artificial drainage systems such as pumping stations that are crucial for flood protection. If the capacity of the pumping station is exceeded or if the pumping station (partially) fails, the water floods the drainage-free subsidence area. The consequences are life-threatening situations for the population and monetary losses of several billion euros.

The BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) joint project PuwaSTAR aims to develop a real-time forecasting system for potential flooded areas and their water depth in subsidence areas around pumping stations. Based on artificial intelligence (AI), time-consuming hydraulic simulations are replaced in the event of an incident. In addition to the hydrological forecast the operating status of the pumping station is considered during simulations, and failure scenarios are respected. The AI-model is based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) and designed to generate maximum water depth and inundation areas for the upcoming 24 h using discharge and rainfall data as input data. As part of this project, EGLV's existing flood forecasting system is extended to the forecast of flooded areas including details of the pumping stations status.

Although existing hazard and risk studies provide an overview of the potentially affected flood areas, a dynamic system allows for strategic disaster management. Thus, resulting options of targeted population warnings and initiation of prioritized measures reduce potential damage and protect the population. This enhances flood-resilience. The current operating status of the pumping station as well as a potential failure significantly contributes to the risk of flooding and must be considered likewise.

The real-time prediction based on AI will be demonstrated using the example of the Dorsten-Hammbach pumping station in the Hammbach catchment of the Lippeverband. According to an existing risk study, in the event of a pumping station failure and resulting flooding, the expected damage would amount to around €75 million, about 1,800 people and critical infrastructure would be affected. In collaboration with local authorities and first responders, the opportunities for improved forecasts for practical disaster management are derived. A participatory approach to elaborate and define requirements jointly with the stakeholders is a key aspect of the project. This enables targeted measures in the event of an incident and improves preparedness of the densely populated area around the pumping station.

The results of the project are intended to serve as a basis to transfer the methodology to further pumping stations and other controlling drainage elements, both in the EGLV catchment as well as those of other operators.

How to cite: Eckers, H., Buchholz, O., Falter, D., Johann, G., Leandro, J., Nafo, I., Nijzink, J., Pfister, A., Ramsauer, S., and Schmid, F.: Flood forecasting and pumping station warning in urban areas to improve flood-resilience: The project PuwaSTAR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16233, 2025.

EGU25-18107 | Orals | HS5.4.2

Experimental investigation and numerical analysis of a green wall system 

Michele Turco, Anna Chiara Brusco, Giuseppe Brunetti, Behrouz Pirouz, and Patrizia Piro

Stormwater management has emerged as one of the main issues, especially in urban areas. When cities expand, urbanization increases with the result of more impermeable areas. In this way, there is a modification of some pre-development hydrological cycle's functions like infiltration and evapotranspiration with direct consequences in increasing pluvial urban flood phenomena.

In addition, the increase in extreme events due to climate change makes the traditional urban drainage systems inadequate to manage stormwater, and this increases the cities' vulnerability to pluvial urban flooding.

Recently, to mitigate the cited issues, the scientific community has concentrated on a series of "green" facilities known as Nature-based Solutions (NBS). Among NBS the most popular are green systems such as Green Roofs and Walls.

The aim of this work is to propose a comprehensive approach to assess the hydrological/hydraulic benefit of a GW cascade system using experimental investigation on the soil substrate coupled with a physically based approach applying the HYDRUS-1D model.

The GW investigated in this work consists of a cascade of five boxes. Each box contains a seepage face layer (to permit the water flux from one box to the other); a drainage layer of 5 cm composed of natural gravel material; a highly permeable geotextile to avoid fine particle migration into the underneath layer; a substrate of 10 cm; a surface layer with vegetation. The mixture of the soil substrate is made up of 40% mediterranean soil, 40% compost, and 20% glass sand while the drainage layer consists of fine gravel. To assess the hydraulic properties of the soil substrate the evaporation method simplified by Schindler has been performed using the HYPROP device applying the unimodal van Genuchten-Mualem model.

To carry out the modeling analysis with the HYDRUS-1D model, a one-year data set (2022) gathered from a meteorological station located in Cosenza was taken into consideration.

The potential effect of the GW cascade on a building has shown promising results in reducing runoff volume. It should be noted, however, that this study considers only the rainfall falling on the first box of the GW cascade as the first precipitation input. Further investigation on inflow coming from an adjacent roof surface should improve the knowledge about the GW cascade runoff reduction.

How to cite: Turco, M., Brusco, A. C., Brunetti, G., Pirouz, B., and Piro, P.: Experimental investigation and numerical analysis of a green wall system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18107, 2025.

EGU25-19480 | Orals | HS5.4.2

Assessing the Impact of Urban Flooding on Cities through Hydraulic Modelling 

Fazeleh Yousefi, Rosaria Ester Musumeci, and Luca Cavallaro

Urban floods are one of the major challenges in the sustainable management of urban areas, which have intensified due to climate change and the rapid expansion of urbanization. These floods, especially in coastal and low-lying areas, create significant risks for infrastructure and human settlements and have extensive economic and social consequences. With the increase in heavy and short-term rains, the necessity of surface runoff management and accurate prediction of flood patterns in urban areas is felt more than ever.

Hydraulic modeling is critical as one of the basic tools in predicting flood behavior and reducing its effects in urban environments. Using the HEC-RAS 2D model and supporting QGIS software, this research examines the hydraulic modeling of urban runoff caused by floods in the coastal city of Catania. This method allows accurate flood flow simulation and dynamic water movement analysis in complex urban environments.

The main goal of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness and capability of hydraulic models as a tool for analyzing the vulnerability caused by heavy rainfall runoff in urban environments. Also, flood maps are reviewed to identify high-risk points and prioritize vulnerable areas.

Finally, this research highlights the importance of accurate modeling and integration of hydrological and hydraulic approaches, along with attention to detail, to provide sustainable and practical solutions to reduce the risks of urban floods.

How to cite: Yousefi, F., Ester Musumeci, R., and Cavallaro, L.: Assessing the Impact of Urban Flooding on Cities through Hydraulic Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19480, 2025.

EGU25-20638 | ECS | Posters on site | HS5.4.2

A Comparative Study of Oxygen Transfer Over Contracted and Uncontracted Weirs 

Ashwini Tiwari, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, and Kotnoor Hari Prasad

Rapid population growth and urbanization in India have significantly increased the discharge of untreated effluents into rivers, resulting in deteriorating water quality. Hydraulic structures, such as weirs, offer an effective solution to improve water quality in urban drains and streams by enhancing oxygen transfer and minimizing pollution loads. While natural streams often require several kilometers to re-oxygenate, weirs can achieve substantial oxygenation within shorter distances. This study investigates the oxygen transfer efficiency of contracted and uncontracted rectangular weirs through laboratory experiments conducted in a flume measuring 15 m in length, 0.5 m in width, and 0.75 m in depth. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were measured upstream and downstream of the weirs to evaluate oxygen transfer efficiency. The results show that contracted rectangular weirs outperform uncontracted weirs in oxygen transfer efficiency, with increased contraction leading to higher efficiency. Furthermore, the efficiency was found to increase with head loss over the weir and with the downstream Froude number. Hydraulic jumps formed downstream of the weir further contributed to oxygen transfer by entraining air bubbles into the flow. Using a phase detection probe, air concentration measurements revealed that the highest air concentration occurred near the jump toe, with depth-averaged air concentration decreasing with distance from the toe.

How to cite: Tiwari, A., Ojha, C. S. P., and Hari Prasad, K.: A Comparative Study of Oxygen Transfer Over Contracted and Uncontracted Weirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20638, 2025.

EGU25-21883 | ECS | Orals | HS5.4.2

Comprehensive urban flood risk assessment using machine learning algorithms and GCM projections 

Ahmad Rashiq, Om Prakash, Sujit Kumar Roy, and Atul Kumar

Urban floods have become a pressing concern as cities worldwide face unprecedented flooding events that severely impact the lives and livelihoods of millions in densely populated areas. This issue is particularly alarming in developing countries, where rapid, unplanned urbanization often outpaces the development of adequate infrastructure. Climate change exacerbates this challenge by intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events, further straining fragile urban systems. Given the growing vulnerability of urban areas to flooding, it is crucial to develop targeted mitigation strategies grounded in comprehensive urban flood risk assessment. The present study aims to quantify flood risk and leverage Global Climate Models (GCMs) for predicting future flood scenarios. A sensitivity analysis is performed on spatial layers, including land use/land cover (LULC), elevation, slope, rainfall, stream density, distance to roads, distance to rivers, population, population density, literacy rates, and building footprint, to evaluate their influence on flood risk. Machine learning (ML) algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and artificial neural networks (ANN)—are employed to generate urban flood risk zones (UFRZ). The UFRZs derived from these algorithms are validated using the area under the curve – receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) metric to ensure accuracy. The optimal UFRZ model is then used to predict future urban flood risks based on GCM outputs. Fifteen downscaled, bias-corrected GCMs are evaluated against observed rainfall data for the historical period (1985–2020) to identify the best-performing model for the region. Future flood risk predictions are made for three time periods: 2025–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100. Identifying high-risk flood zones will aid in formulating effective mitigation strategies, providing a roadmap for flood resilience that can be adapted for similar regions globally.

How to cite: Rashiq, A., Prakash, O., Roy, S. K., and Kumar, A.: Comprehensive urban flood risk assessment using machine learning algorithms and GCM projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21883, 2025.

EGU25-686 | PICO | HS5.4.4

On the Potential of Smart Water Supply Grid in Semi-Arid Region 

Shobhana Singh, Pradip Kumar Tewari, and Ajay Agarwal

The concept of smart water supply grids has emerged as a promising response to the evolving challenges faced by traditional water supply systems. Traditional water supply systems are grappling with sustainability challenges such as increasing water main breaks, diminishing freshwater resources, untraceable non-revenue water usage, and escalating water demand. The condition worsens in arid- or semi-arid regions which also suffer from water scarcity due to harsh climate effects, surface water inaccessibility, water loss, and over-exploitation. Smart water infrastructure consists of online monitoring sensors and smart meters at the physical systems layer, various analytical tools, and visualization platform for optimal decision-making by the management authorities. The tighter integration of these components through IoT devices and advanced technologies including artificial intelligence and machine learning, tailored hybrid models for water networks hydraulics and water quality, is crucial in achieving digital twin for water management. This integration allows improved leakage reduction, pressure management, water quality protection, and overall system resilience. We present a case study of the development of a smart water supply system in the IIT Jodhpur campus situated in a semi-arid region of the state Rajasthan, India. We elucidate all phases of the study, i.e., sensor placement, data collection, mathematical modeling, and validation study analysis, addressing several challenges with real-time data and field deployment of digital twin technology. This study underscores the ongoing and incremental digital transition towards smart water systems, which is expected to yield significant benefits if collaboration among academia, industry, and government is effectively fostered. The present approach offers a robust framework for tackling water scarcity challenges in arid- or semi-arid regions and to create sustainable and resilient urban water infrastructures that are capable of adapting to both current and future challenges.

How to cite: Singh, S., Tewari, P. K., and Agarwal, A.: On the Potential of Smart Water Supply Grid in Semi-Arid Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-686, 2025.

EGU25-1254 | PICO | HS5.4.4

Graph-Based Methodology for Segment Criticality Assessment and Optimal Valve Placements in Water Networks 

Robert Sitzenfrei, Rahul Satish, Mohammed Rajabi, Mohsen Hajibabaei, and Martin Oberascher

Continuous drinking water supplied by water distribution networks (WDNs) is essential for social well-being and economic development. WDNs are often divided by isolation valves into segments containing various elements, including nodes, pipes, tanks, and pumps. In the event of an element failure (e.g., pipe failure) within a segment, that segment can be isolated to facilitate repair. Effective failure management requires identifying critical valves and segments to minimize the number of affected users in such an event. Traditional hydraulic-based criticality analysis requires an hydraulic model to assess the criticality of isolation valves and segements, which can be time-consuming particularly for complex systems. Placing new valves also often requires data-intensive and time-consuming optimization methods thatare typically impractical for small and medium-sized WDN operators. To address these challenges, this study introduces a graph-based method to assess and improve WDN resilience by evaluating the criticality of valves and segmentsand the placement of new valves. The approach first evaluates the criticality of isolation valves based on their impact on network performance. Then, it reduces segment criticality by strategically adding new valves to minimize unmet water demand during isolation events. To achieve this, the mathematical graph of a WDN is constructed based on GIS data where valves are considered as nodes and segments as weighted edges. Subsequently, graph-based segment failure magnitudes are calculated, and eigenvector centrality is used to rank valves based on their influence, considering the importance of connected valves. Then critical segments are identified, and the Louvain-based community detection technique is used to determine the optimal placement of additional isolation valves. The method iteratively reassesses critical values to progressively reduce the criticality of both: segments and valves. The method was applied to a benchmark case study and a real WDN in an Alpine municipality in Austria. Results show a strong correlation (>0.9 Spearman) with hydraulic-based approaches. The developed approach effectively identified the most critical segments and valve, reducing the segment criticality by at least 40% and the number of critical valves to one fourth. These findings highlight the efficiency of community detection in valve placement and its potential to reduce both segment and valve criticality. This graph-based methodology is particularly beneficial for small-to-medium-scale WDNs lacking resources for hydraulic models.

Funding: The project “RESIST” is funded by the Austrian security research programme KIRAS of the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF).

How to cite: Sitzenfrei, R., Satish, R., Rajabi, M., Hajibabaei, M., and Oberascher, M.: Graph-Based Methodology for Segment Criticality Assessment and Optimal Valve Placements in Water Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1254, 2025.

EGU25-1890 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Urban Drainage Network Modeling Based on Physics-Informed Graph Analysis 

Mohammad Rajabi, Mohsen Hajibabaei, and Robert Sitzenfrei

Urban Drainage Networks (UDNs) are essential for managing flood risks in cities facing intense rainfall, exacerbated by climate change. Many researchers focus on reconstructing and retrofitting UDNs to enhance resilience to urban flooding. Additionally, there is increasing interest in developing real-time flood assessment systems for early warning. These efforts necessitate advanced modeling to accurately measure key hydraulic variables, such as inflow rates and water depths. Conventional tools like the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) use hydrodynamic simulations but often require extensive calibration and can be computationally intensive. As an alternative, surrogate models provide faster simulations with reasonable accuracy; however, they rely on large datasets and can be case-specific.

This study addresses these research gaps for modeling UDNs by proposing a physics-informed graph network for hydraulic analysis. Unlike traditional surrogate models that derive hydraulic variable data from observed measurements, this framework is fundamentally based on physical laws, such as the conservation of mass and energy. The methodology consists of two main stages. First, the UDN is converted into a directed weighted graph, where nodes represent manholes and edges represent conduits. The edge weights reflect the physical properties of the conduits, helping the model mimic the network's hydraulic behavior. In the second stage, flow routing in the UDN is done using customized graph theory metrics to route the flow within conduits. The flow path from inlet nodes to the network's outfall is determined based on the weighted shortest path principle. Using these flow paths and the pipe capacities, the inflow for each pipe is calculated using a new index called modified runoff edge betweenness centrality.

The developed methodology is applied to two real branched networks in Alpine cities. The physics-informed graph network model was evaluated under 77 rainfall scenarios with varying durations and return periods. The maximum inflow results in the conduits were compared to those obtained by the hydrodynamic model SWMM. The correlation coefficients (R²) ranged from 0.76 to 1 for the first case study and from 0.91 to 1 for the second, demonstrating strong agreement between the surrogate and SWMM models across diverse rainfall scenarios. This physics-informed graph network model is effective in research with limited data and high computational demands, such as real-time UDN assessments and optimization tasks.

Funding: The project “RESTORE” is funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) P 36737-N.

How to cite: Rajabi, M., Hajibabaei, M., and Sitzenfrei, R.: Urban Drainage Network Modeling Based on Physics-Informed Graph Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1890, 2025.

EGU25-3709 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Rapid and responsive water quality risk assessment using a hybrid machine learning integrated quantitative microbial risk assessment model 

Michael De Santi, Syed Imran Ali, Usman T Khan, James Elliott Brown, Camille Heylen, Gabrielle String, Doreen Naliyongo, Vincent Ogira, Daniele Lantagne, Jean-François Fesselet, and James Orbinski

Unprecedented global population displacement in recent years has increased the burden of waterborne illnesses in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements. Unlike contexts where water is piped directly to the home, in urban-scale refugee and IDP settlements, water users manually collect water from public tapstands and transport it to their dwellings where they store and use it over several hours. This creates the potential for recontamination, increasing waterborne illness risk. Humanitarian responders need to optimize water treatment to minimize waterborne illness risk at the household. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been used to assess health risk from drinking water in a variety of contexts. However, conventional QMRA approaches rely on pathogen enumeration data, which is too slow, expensive, and logistically challenging to respond to rapid fluctuations in water quality (WQ) in humanitarian contexts.

We propose a novel hybrid machine learning (ML)-QMRA approach that links operational WQ data to QMRA using probabilistic ML models for responsive risk assessments. The ML-QMRA model uses a two-stage probabilistic ML approach: first we forecast WQ from tapstand to household via a deep composite quantile regression neural network (DCQRNN) and then we link household WQ to E.coli data using a support vector quantile regression (SVQR) model. This predicted E. coli becomes an input to an QMRA model designed based on WHO QMRA guidelines.

We tested this ML-QMRA modelling approach using operational WQ data from the Kyaka II refugee settlement in Uganda to assess daily probabilities of infection for pathogenic E. coli and rotavirus. The ML-QMRA model forecasted a mean infection risk for pathogenic E. coli ranged of 4.5x10-2 and 0.19x10-4 for rotavirus. The ML-QMRA model also determined that to keep the risk of infection from pathogenic E. coli within 5% of the minimum daily risk of infection, 0.8 mg/L of FRC was needed at the tapstand at a turbidity of 1 NTU. The FRC requirement increased with turbidity, up to 1.25 mg/L at a turbidity of 20 NTU. This water quality was also sufficient to manage rotavirus infection risk.

Our study shows how hybridizing process-based QMRA health risk assessment with probabilistic ML models can enable integration of operational data for more rapid risk assessment than conventional approaches using pathogen data. The ML-QMRA model also enables us to set multi-parameter water quality targets for routine monitoring data that are based on health-risk, not arbitrary guidelines. The ML-QMRA approach has applications in a range of contexts outside of humanitarian contexts in urban water management to make QMRA more responsive to rapid WQ fluctuations.

How to cite: De Santi, M., Ali, S. I., Khan, U. T., Brown, J. E., Heylen, C., String, G., Naliyongo, D., Ogira, V., Lantagne, D., Fesselet, J.-F., and Orbinski, J.: Rapid and responsive water quality risk assessment using a hybrid machine learning integrated quantitative microbial risk assessment model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3709, 2025.

EGU25-4368 | PICO | HS5.4.4

A pressure-based approach for the identification of anomalous events in water distribution networks 

Stefano Alvisi, Filippo Mazzoni, and Valentina Marsili

In this era of growing population, urbanization and relevant environmental issues, an adequate management of water distribution networks (WDN) is needed to deal with current and future challenges and ensure an efficient water supply. In this context, techniques relying on the use of WDN hydraulic models (i.e., model-based approaches) can be a useful tool to support water utilities in decision-making processes, spacing from leak detection to the definition of maintenance actions. However, model-based approaches generally rely on the availability of a well calibrated hydraulic model of the WDN, which depends on detailed information on WDN features (e.g. topology, pipe characteristics, etc), that may not be available or perfectly known to water utilities.

In the last decades, the process of WDNs digitalization resulted in the availability of a large amount of data (e.g. discharge in pipelines, pressure at nodes, etc.). Among these data, pressure measurements may be particularly easy to obtain, due to the lower costs and limited intrusiveness of pressure sensors compared to flow meters, with the possibility of installing them in a significant number of WDN sections. In light of the above, this study proposes a new method for the identification of anomalous events occurring in a WDN exclusively based on the use of pressure data collected through a series of pressure sensors installed in the network. Even without requiring detailed information on WDN characteristics or the use of the hydraulic model, the method allows detecting both hydraulic anomalies (e.g. anomalous consumption) or mechanical anomalies (e.g. significant leakage events, or unknown gate valves status after maintenance actions) which can significantly impact system functioning and whose prompt identification can improve the quality of the service provided by water utilities.

To effectively detect anomalous events while excluding other potential causes of pressure variations (e.g. changes in the WDN inlet pressure due to modifications in the controls of pumping systems), the method is based on the analysis of pressure differences calculated for all possible couples of sensors located in the WDN, which are expected to deviate from the ordinary range of values only in the case of anomalies because of the local alteration of the pressure-head distribution produced.

The proposed method is tested on a real case study in Northern Italy, featuring around 300 users and provided with a system of pressure sensors collecting data with hourly temporal resolution. The application of the method to the above case study revealed its effectiveness in detecting a series of anomalous events with different magnitude throughout the day. In addition, the method was demonstrated to be capable of identifying anomalies occurring simultaneously in different areas of the WDN. Overall, it is believed that the developed method can provide a solid indication based on which the water utility can promptly act and verify the possible presence of anomalous events of different nature.

How to cite: Alvisi, S., Mazzoni, F., and Marsili, V.: A pressure-based approach for the identification of anomalous events in water distribution networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4368, 2025.

EGU25-5966 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Effects of error propagation of uncertainties on pressure-based leakage localisation 

Martin Oberascher, Ella Steins, Kegong Diao, Andrea Cominola, and Robert Sitzenfrei

Water distribution networks are increasingly equipped with measurement devices for real-time monitoring of hydraulic parameters, including permanent pressure sensors distributed in the network. Information from these devices can be utilised, among others, for pressure-based leakage localisation, which aims to identify a specific area of the network where a leak might have occurred, and assist refined on site leakage pinpointing. The effectiveness of leak localisation methods is thereby influenced by several factors and their associated uncertainties. For example, errors in available network data affect first the optimal sensor placement, second the hydraulic model calibration, and finally the accuracy of spatial localisation of a leakage. Yet, a systematic analysis including a quantification of the propagation of errors through the sub-processes included in pressure-based leakage localisation is still missing in literature.

The aim of this work is to combine different types of uncertainties in pressure-based leakage localisation to systematically investigate the effects of error propagation through the sub-processes. The following sub-processes are implemented in the error propagation analysis (the considered uncertainties of each subprocess are added in brackets): (1) creation of a hydraulic model or network graph based on GIS data (network topology, pipe diameters, pipe roughness, nodal demand), (2) selection of sensor placements (number of sensors), (3) model calibration during a leakage-free period (measurement errors), and (4) leakage localisation (measurement errors). In this work, both data-driven (i.e., graph-based state interpolation, differential pressure analysis) and model-based (i.e., sensitivity matrix, graph-based genetic algorithm) leak localisation methods are implemented for comparison. Both the L-Town benchmark network from the “Battle of the Leakage Detection and Isolation Methods” and a real-world WDN with engineered leakage events are utilised as demonstrative case studies. The leak localisation performance is evaluated by the pipeline distance between the assumed leakage location and the real leakage location.

The preliminary results show that model-based methods are substantially more accurate than data-driven methods under perfect conditions, i.e., perfectly calibrated hydraulic model and no measurement errors. However, model-based methods are also more affected by errors in the GIS data, as an accurate hydraulic model has a major influence on the accuracy. In the next steps, other uncertainties will be systematically added across all defined sub-processes in bandwidths defined by literature values, and their joint influence on the effectiveness of pressure-based leakage localisation will be analysed. These findings can then be used to optimise the quality of data collection strategies based on their relative importance, ultimately leading to an improvement in pressure-based leak localisation in science and practice.

FUNDING

This publication was produced as part of the “FOUND” project. This project is funded by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Regions and Water Management (BML) (Austria) (Project C300198).

How to cite: Oberascher, M., Steins, E., Diao, K., Cominola, A., and Sitzenfrei, R.: Effects of error propagation of uncertainties on pressure-based leakage localisation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5966, 2025.

EGU25-6806 | PICO | HS5.4.4

Retrieval of Missing Data in Urban Stormwater Networks Based on Graph Theory 

Mohsen Hajibabaei, Sina Hesarkazzazi, and Robert Sitzenfrei

Urban stormwater networks (USNs) are essential in safeguarding urban areas from pluvial flooding. To better understand USNs’ performance and manage them effectively, these infrastructures often undergo various simulations and analyses. However, a significant challenge arises from the quality and availability of data required for such simulations, particularly network data such as sewer slopes and diameters. Due to inconsistent and incomplete documentation, network data are often missing or of poor quality, especially in USNs constructed decades ago. Thus, reliable methods for retrieving these data are crucial to ensure a solid foundation for hydrodynamic analyses in USNs.

This study proposes a data retrieval model to reconstruct missing sewer diameter and slope information. The model is built on graph theory, leveraging the topological and connectivity patterns of USN components. Unlike other retrieval approaches, it is fully automated, computationally efficient, and does not require detailed information. The model comprises four modules: uniformity, hierarchy, elevation, and hydrodynamic, explained as follows: 1) Uniformity Module: In this module, missing data between sewers with identical diameters connected along a directed path are filled with the same diameter information using the shortest path metric, retrieving part of the missing sewer diameter. 2) Hierarchy Module: This module employs a modified centrality metric called runoff edge betweenness centrality to reproduce transition patterns in USNs, where sewer diameters progressively increase from upstream to downstream and accordingly fill the gaps in sewer diameter data. 3) Elevation Module: Missing sewer slope information (invert elevations) is retrieved in this module by considering available slopes of neighbouring sewers and incorporating minimum slope requirements derived from the retrieved diameters. This allows for the approximation of the so-called underground slope surface. 4) Hydrodynamic Module: After filling the data gaps, a hydrodynamic model of the USN is assembled by converting the graph of the network to a Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). The aim here is to ensure that the reconstructed USN can meet actual operational conditions (e.g., by investigating capacity discrepancies in terms of the flow depth-to-diameter ratio in reconstructed USNs). In case of any flow discrepancies, the reconstruction procedure is repeated for specific sewers with the flow depth-to-diameter ratio exceeding a specified threshold.

The proposed model was validated using two real-world USNs. Data gaps were artificially generated by randomly eliminating sewer diameter and slope information, ranging from 10% to 90%, and repeating each data gap scenario 100 times, resulting in 1,800 incomplete USN scenarios. The model was applied to these incomplete networks, and the retrieved USNs were compared to those with complete datasets in terms of hydrodynamic properties (e.g., flow rates, flooded nodes, and flood volumes) and physical characteristics (e.g., diameters and invert elevations). The results demonstrate that the model provides highly promising outcomes, successfully retrieving missing sewer diameter and slope information even with up to 90% data gaps while preserving the hydrodynamic behaviour of the original networks. This graph-theory-based model can be used as a practical tool for water utilities, offering a reliable method for retrieving missing or unavailable data.

How to cite: Hajibabaei, M., Hesarkazzazi, S., and Sitzenfrei, R.: Retrieval of Missing Data in Urban Stormwater Networks Based on Graph Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6806, 2025.

Urban flooding has become a worldwide catastrophic disaster including in Spain due to 
increased urbanization, reduced infiltration capacity, and climate change. Though the annual 
average rainfall is low in Badalona, a city located in eastern Catalonia and a part of the Barcelona 
metropolitan area, it experiences pluvial and flash floods due to the intense rainfall that occurred 
in a short interval of time brought by the Mediterranean climate. The combined sewer system of 
the drainage network in Badalona City acts as the conveyor of the urban sewer system, 
stormwater runoff, and industrial wastewater system. To minimize the surcharging of the 
drainage networks, it is necessary to predict the surface runoff and forecast the floods as 
accurately as possible. Drainage models such as MOUSE, Infor Works, and SWMM were 
developed for such applications for the city. However, the manual calibration results in a long and 
tedious process, primarily based on the educated guess of the modeler which could lead to a 
possibility of missing the optimum parameter sets during calibration. This makes an automatic 
process preferable. Additionally, the optimization done using multi-objective function strategies 
has been shown to provide more reliable results compared to the traditional methods. This 
project aimed to develop and compare the single and multi-objective function strategies to 
optimize the urban drainage model parameters using genetic algorithms. Upon the comparative 
analysis of single and multi-objective optimization strategies, it was demonstrated that the multi
objective optimization provides more robust and versatile model compared to single objective 
approach providing a balanced trade-off between the multiple objectives. This aids in providing 
a holistic approach for drainage network management of an area providing resiliency and 
efficiency through a robust framework for addressing various issues such as flood preventions, 
water quality management and model performance.

How to cite: Karki, N. and Medina Iglesias, V. C. D.: COMPARISON BETWEEN SINGLE AND MULTI-OBJECTIVE STRATEGIES FOR URBAN DRAINAGE MODEL OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS: A case study of Badalona Urban drainage network., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7209, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7209, 2025.

EGU25-13629 | PICO | HS5.4.4

Interconnected Digital Twins for Water Contamination Management 

Demetrios G. Eliades, Stelios Vrachimis, Marios Kyriakou, Christos Laoudias, Christos Panayiotou, and Marios Polycarpou

Emergencies such as storms, wildfires, floods, or earthquakes can affect various interconnected environmental and critical infrastructure systems, potentially causing failures that may cascade from one system to another. For instance, such events can contaminate water sources, disrupt the operation of water treatment, supply, disinfection, and distribution, cause overflows in sewerage and drainage systems, and disrupt services in power grids, telecommunication networks, and transportation networks. Especially in cases of contamination or disruption of disinfection, such events can result in severe risks to public health, the economy, and the environment.

Addressing these challenges requires a unified Cyber-Physical-Socio-Environmental System (CPSES) approach that models the interactions and dependencies among the various components. We propose an Integrated Digital Twin architecture as a holistic framework that incorporates and coordinates different Digital Twins modelling the different Cyber, Physical, Social and Environmental systems, to capture the propagation of contaminants and estimate their impact.

The CPSES framework incorporates real-time sensor data, geographical information systems (GIS), computational models, and state-estimation algorithms to dynamically model events and enable proactive planning and real-time decision support for local authorities, first responders, utility operators, and public health officials.

For example, a sudden storm can increase water levels in a reservoir, causing an overflow that significantly raises the water level in a downstream river. This, in turn, can lead to sewage overflow from a nearby manhole, potentially affecting first responder operations, and flooding a power substation, which disrupts its operation and, in turn, disconnects a pump supplying water to a central tank.

A core technology for implementing this framework are the Data Spaces, which serve as secure, standardized environments for ingesting and sharing data among multiple stakeholders and infrastructure operators. Moreover, State Estimation is critical for producing realistic assessments of the current and near-future states of the system. State Estimation can be extended by combining physics-based models with machine learning, to estimate unobserved system states and continuously update parameter values. As a result, data spaces, integrated with GIS, computational models, state estimation, and machine learning, provide a Digital Twin that serves as a single point of reference. This allows risk analysts to assess vulnerabilities, estimate the spread of events, and model cascading effects on other systems.

This integration, facilitates rapid and precise interventions, such as rerouting water supplies, isolating at-risk sewer lines, or reconfiguring power distribution. The HPC-based urgent-computing paradigm can also be considered to ensure stakeholders receive risk assessments, contamination maps, and infrastructure failure forecasts within the strict timeframes required for crisis response.

To demonstrate real-world applicability, we discuss the Cyprus Digital Twin, an innovative platform where a simulated emergency triggered a contamination/overflow event in the Yermasogia Reservoir. This event threatened the aquifer and the extraction of potable water from boreholes. By integrating contamination propagation models, public health models, flood hazard models, geospatial data, power network fragility curves, and real-time sensor measurements, the Digital Twin and its tools were able to provide comprehensive situational awareness, assess the potential impact of the event, and support the rapid decision-making process.

How to cite: Eliades, D. G., Vrachimis, S., Kyriakou, M., Laoudias, C., Panayiotou, C., and Polycarpou, M.: Interconnected Digital Twins for Water Contamination Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13629, 2025.

EGU25-13705 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Integration of index-based insurance into water supply portfolios to support equitable urban water management in the Global South 

Greicelene Silva, David Gold, Conceicao de Maria Albuquerque Alves, Heidi Kreibich, Andrea Cominola, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts challenge urban water supply managers worldwide. Measures to guarantee urban water supply reliability and security, such as infrastructure investments and temporary restriction and conservation, can exacerbate financial risk for water utilities. In response, water utilities often utilize surcharges - temporary increases in water prices - to increase revenues during droughts and mitigate their financial risk.  However, in cities where water supply challenges are compounded by high social inequality, these measures may raise the costs of water services to socially disadvantaged communities to an intolerable level. This study explores opportunities and tradeoffs of integrating index-based insurance into water supply portfolios for the Federal District of Brazil (FDB), a region that exemplifies many challenges present in cities of the Global South. We compute and comparatively analyze different water supply management pathways using WaterPaths, a state-of-the-art open-source exploratory modeling software designed to support water supply portfolio management. We test four different policy architectures across 999 realizations of flow, demand, and evaporation for a 5-year horizon. (1) no financial mitigation: policy considering only water supply restrictions and water transfer during drought scenarios; (2) surcharges: policy considering restriction measures, transfers, and surcharges; (3) index-based insurance: policy with restriction measures, transfers, and index-based insurance payment; (4) hybrid policy: policy with restriction measures, transfers, surcharges, and index-based insurance. Results indicate that incorporating index-based insurance into water supply portfolios can minimize the financial risk for water utilities while lowering the financial burden on vulnerable water users. Considering that insurance companies are risk neutral, these results indicate that integrating index-based insurance in current industry practices and water management portfolios can bring financial relief to households without imposing a substantial cost to water utilities.

How to cite: Silva, G., Gold, D., Albuquerque Alves, C. D. M., Kreibich, H., Cominola, A., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Integration of index-based insurance into water supply portfolios to support equitable urban water management in the Global South, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13705, 2025.

ABSTRACT

The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall caused by climate change raises flood risks in Korea, provoking demands for new, effective methods for early flood detection. Recently, deep learning-based waterbody segmentation methods using surveillance camera images have become a focal point for effective flood detection. Many studies have developed waterbody segmentation models using benchmark datasets collected from diverse regions that represent their unique geographical and environmental characteristics. While benchmark datasets offer valuable insights, they often lack sufficient data to generalize environmental features on a universal scale. To handle the limitations of the generalization, models should learn regional features of the applied environment to ensure reliable flood detection performance. Although the need for developing region-specific datasets designed for local application has risen, little efforts have been devoted to constructing Korean river datasets due to the lack of resources and time. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel region-specific waterbody segmentation dataset called KU River Dataset and proposes automated prompting, an advanced model training technique. First, KU River Dataset consists of 280 river and stream images and is specifically designed to reflect the diverse characteristics of the environment in Korea under various light conditions and surrounding landscapes. Second, an automated prompting method adapting a foundation model enhances the model’s performance using limited data. We employed Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM 2), a foundation model for image segmentation tasks. The automated prompts, generated from SAM 2’s image encoder, guide the model to focus on features of the waterbody. As a result, SAM 2 trained with KU River Dataset achieved 5% improvement in Intersection over Union (IoU) score on the test set compared to SAM 2 trained with a benchmark dataset of the same size. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of applying a region-specific dataset and an automated prompting method for improving regional flood detection. To improve the model’s robustness across diverse environmental conditions, including low-light and flood scenarios, we plan to gather more images of night vision and inundated riversides. Through the further development of our dataset, we expect to enhance the precision of early flood detection systems.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

How to cite: Kim, J. and Jung, D.: KU River Dataset for Waterbody Segmentation in South Korea: Application of Foundation Model with Auto-prompting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14024, 2025.

EGU25-15869 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

A cyber-physical testing facility for edge-based automatic classification of residential water end uses 

Felix Kunze, Christopher Bölter, Sebastian Haueisen, David Tilcher, Marie-Philine Gross, and Andrea Cominola

Water demand-side management strategies are increasingly recognized as key for urban water conservation, complementing supply-side operations. Recent studies demonstrate that consumption-based feedback can effectively encourage water conservation behaviors. Smart meters, supported by digital innovations like the Internet of Things (IoT) and advanced data analytics, have become central to enabling personalized feedback and reinforcing behavioral changes. These advancements highlight the need for Non-Intrusive Water Monitoring (NIWM) algorithms capable of estimating individual water end uses from aggregate household consumption recorded by single-point smart meters. Existing research offers heuristic and machine learning algorithms to address two primary tasks in NIWM: disaggregation of concurrent end uses and automatic classification of the resulting water end-use data. While many algorithms have been designed, calibrated, and validated using high-resolution temporal data—often synthetically generated or inaccessible due to closed datasets—reproducibility in a realistic environment remains a challenge. Furthermore, most algorithms are tested in virtual settings, overlooking real-world concerns related to data transmission, end users’ privacy, and the intrusiveness of centralized analyses by the water utility or a third party.

In this study, we present a novel cyber-physical testing facility for edge-based, real-time classification of residential water end uses. This facility replicates typical residential water use scenarios and employs machine learning algorithms for on-site, edge computing. Its physical components are modular and include a water tank, two circulation pumps, and piping and valves to simulate flow rate trajectories of various end-use categories. Water consumption is measured using a digital flow meter, with data processed by PyNIWM, an open-source Python framework for NIWM, operating in near real-time on a local computer. By integrating physics-based simulations of water use with edge computing, our test stand supports (i) benchmarking and reproducibility of NIWM algorithms in realistic conditions, (ii) privacy-compliant end-use classification and analysis, (iii) near real-time reporting of NIWM outcomes to users, and (iv) modularity to test various soft- and hardware setups. This approach bridges the gap between virtual testing and practical implementation, addressing key challenges in modern water management while advancing privacy-conscious, user-oriented solutions for smart water metering.

How to cite: Kunze, F., Bölter, C., Haueisen, S., Tilcher, D., Gross, M.-P., and Cominola, A.: A cyber-physical testing facility for edge-based automatic classification of residential water end uses, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15869, 2025.

EGU25-16168 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Rethinking the Coupled Operation-Design Optimisation Problem in Water Distribution Systems under Deep Uncertainties 

Dennis Zanutto, Andrea Castelletti, and Dragan Savic

The management and strategic planning of urban Water Distribution Systems (WDS) face new challenges indicative of a more profound transformative shift across all dimensions of urban life.

External factors and environmental influences on the urban context have expanded significantly. Historically, fluctuations in water demand and urban development were primarily driven by localised system dynamics. Today, however, the reliability of WDS is shaped by (i) deep uncertainties spanning national and continental scales and (ii) considerations for both short- and long-term horizons. These include persistent trends such as demographic and migration shifts, evolving climatic conditions, and transient events with varying levels of predictability, including seasonal droughts, abrupt changes in governmental policies, and economic volatility, particularly in the transitioning energy sector.

Consequently, there has been a shift towards a more holistic perspective of the urban WDS. New approaches encompass the WDS infrastructure along with its operation, management, and integration with the wider energy grid, representing a significant paradigm change from the traditional approaches focusing primarily on the network of pipes.

As the problem's description complexity increases, the development and use of benchmarks become more relevant. These tools are essential for rigorous and reproducible testing of our solutions and to guide an evidence-based decision-making process. Historically, the academic research field of urban WDS design optimisation has been a prime testing ground. Numerous open problems have been introduced in the literature since the late '80s/early '90s, with notable examples being Anytown, Hanoi, and the New York Tunnels. However, the evolving complexity of the problem indicates that historical benchmarks may no longer suffice, while their adapted versions lack a unified framework, with multiple problem formulations scattered across the literature.

In this work, we explore the coupled operation-design optimisation problem for Water Distribution Systems (WDS). Building on a critical review of the literature, we identify the strengths and limitations of existing benchmark formulations, paving the way for a discussion on the key attributes that next-generation benchmarks should embody. Our work aims to establish a comprehensive problem framework for joint operation and staged design (planning) optimisation, ensuring it addresses the complex and evolving challenges faced by WDS globally. Particular emphasis is placed on capturing the dynamic interplay between viable policy interventions and the variability of critical factors, such as water demand, electricity prices, energy mix, and timing.

How to cite: Zanutto, D., Castelletti, A., and Savic, D.: Rethinking the Coupled Operation-Design Optimisation Problem in Water Distribution Systems under Deep Uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16168, 2025.

EGU25-16919 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Opportunities and challenges of interoperable Data sharing in the field of Circular water 

shehabeldeen abdelfatah, Janelcy Alferes, and Pieter Colpaert

The digital transformation of the water sector presents a potential for addressing critical challenges posed by climate change and the growing need for sustainable practices. Central to this transformation is data, which underscores the necessity for robust frameworks and tools that enable efficient sharing, interoperability, and smart decision-making. Our work highlights the important aspects of digitalization in the water sector, including the evolvability of data models and APIs, dataset discoverability, scalability in data publishing, and the ability to perform cross-domain queries through semantic interoperability. Tackling these challenges is key to unlocking the potential of digital transformation in fostering a resilient and sustainable water economy.

Despite significant advancements in the digital transformation of domains such as air quality, energy, mobility, and traffic, the water sector—particularly in circular water management—remains underserved. Existing initiatives, such as the UK National Digital Twin program and Digital Flanders' DUET project, demonstrate the utility of dataspaces, ontologies, and dynamic knowledge graphs but have yet to be extended adequately to address the specific needs of the circular water economy. Current digital landscapes in the water domain lack adaptive, future-proof pathways capable of integrating diverse data sources into a cohesive framework. To bridge this gap, a holistic approach is required, transitioning from isolated systems to interconnected and dynamic scenarios.

We propose a framework tailored to the specific challenges of the circular water sector. The framework aims to collect, standardize, and integrate the unstructured data generated by various initiatives, thereby fostering interoperability. Unified models and an open dataspace will be central to this framework, enabling seamless interaction between stakeholders. Achieving this vision necessitates collective efforts from data producers and consumers to establish standardized semantics, terms, and definitions, resulting in a unified representation of the water domain.

By facilitating standardized data collection and integration, the proposed framework will enable the creation of adaptive ontologies and dynamic knowledge graphs, which are crucial for modeling the complexity of the water domain. The Open Dataspace will serve as an ecosystem for data sharing across sectors, such as water and energy, enhancing cross-domain interoperability and expanding the utility of shared data assets. These efforts will ensure compliance with laws and regulations, providing equitable treatment to all stakeholders while supporting decision-making processes at various levels.

The implementation of this framework will pave the way for resilient and sustainable water management systems, promoting an interconnected digital ecosystem that can address the unique challenges of water reuse and sustainability. Our study underscores the transformative potential of digital tools and standards in fostering a sustainable water economy and provides a roadmap for future research and development in the circular water sector.

How to cite: abdelfatah, S., Alferes, J., and Colpaert, P.: Opportunities and challenges of interoperable Data sharing in the field of Circular water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16919, 2025.

EGU25-16969 | ECS | PICO | HS5.4.4

Future water demand forecast by integrating climate and socio-economic scenarios 

Anika Stelzl, Franziska Kudaya, and Daniela Fuchs-Hanusch

Climate change, demographic development, increasing urbanization and growing tourism pose complex challenges for the water supply. To address these challenges, this study carried out a scenario analysis for a case study in Austria. For this purpose, different scenarios were derived that consider different trends in climate change, population growth, urban development, and tourism development. To estimate the change in peak water demand due to climate change, a random forest regression model was derived. The model uses climate indices such as hot days and mean air temperature as explanatory parameters for varying water demand. The model was trained and tested using historical water demand records. The quality of the modeling approach was evaluated using common methods such as the mean absolute percentage error. To predict the future water demand under climate change, climate projections for Austria from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were used. Different population trends were considered for the scenarios, ranging from a decline to a scenario with strong growth. In the tourism sector, a range from minimal growth in the number of overnight stays to a significant increase was assumed. For the industry, a range from minimal growth to a significant increase in the future was also considered. Various scenarios were developed that take into account the different developments of the individual factors and their range. By including the range of factors, the uncertainties in their future development are also represented. For each scenario, changes in peak water demand were derived for the period 2031-2060. The scenarios provide a variety of outlooks, ranging from minimal to significant changes in peak water demand. The results show a range of possible water demand developments for each scenario, given the uncertainties in the underlying factors. Several factors have been identified as critical to the development of future peak water demand. These include population growth, climate change, and, in some areas, seasonal tourism. The development of the housing situation is also an important factor, as water consumption differs significantly between residents of single-family homes and those of apartment buildings. Depending on the development of the housing situation, water demand can fluctuate considerably. Depending on the scenario, the future average water demand in one study site may increase by 3% to 15%. Population growth combined with urban development and the effects of climate change have been identified as the key factors for demand increase. By considering a variety of possible developments, the analysis provides a good basis for long-term water supply planning and can be used to raise awareness in a region for sustainable housing development

 
 

How to cite: Stelzl, A., Kudaya, F., and Fuchs-Hanusch, D.: Future water demand forecast by integrating climate and socio-economic scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16969, 2025.

Water distribution systems (WDS) face increasing challenges from climate change, urbanization, and growing populations, making efficient and accurate modeling crucial for their management. While traditional physics-based hydraulic models provide reliable results, they are computationally intensive, limiting their application in real-time decision-making and large-scale optimization. Our multi-year research journey demonstrates a progressive evolution in WDS modeling, successfully combining data-driven efficiency with fundamental physical principles.

Our investigations evolve from conventional neural networks to increasingly sophisticated physically-informed approaches. We demonstrate how Graph Neural Networks can leverage network topology to improve prediction accuracy, but more importantly, how reformulating the problem in the edge space allows direct embedding of mass conservation principles. This novel Edge-Based Graph Neural Network (EGNN) architecture not only achieves superior performance but also demonstrates remarkable zero-shot generalization capabilities across different network configurations.

Building on these insights, we further reformulate steady-state estimation as a diffusion process on graph edges, incorporating both mass and energy conservation laws. This physics-based reformulation enables direct GPU acceleration without relying on machine learning approximations, achieving near-perfect accuracy on multiple benchmarks while maintaining substantial computational speedups compared to traditional solvers.

We then extend this approach to handle uncertainty by developing a topological Gaussian Process framework, where the covariance structure naturally encodes the physical conservation laws. This probabilistic extension enables rapid uncertainty quantification under variable demands, providing analytical uncertainty bounds without the computational burden of Monte Carlo sampling, while preserving the physical consistency guaranteed by our diffusion-based formulation.

How to cite: Taormina, R., Kerimov, B., and Tscheikner-Gratl, F.: Accelerating Steady-State Analysis in Water Distribution Systems with Physics-informed Deep Learning and Topological Signal Processing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17576, 2025.

HS6 – Remote sensing and data assimilation

EGU25-549 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.1

Assessment of Root Zone Soil Moisture Products from the Passive Microwave sensors over Iran 

Mozhdeh Jamei, Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei, and Mehdi Jamei

Accurate and continuous root zone soil moisture (RZSM) data are crucial for important applications such as water resources management, flood and drought monitoring, irrigation planning and timing, agricultural productivity, climate change adaptation, and climate modeling. Direct measurement of RZSM using in-situ sensors can be time-consuming and costly, particularly over large areas. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellites provide surface soil moisture (SSM) data at L-Band and on a global scale. Due to the relationship between SSM and RZSM, satellite SSM data can be assimilated into land surface models to estimate RZSM data. The SMAP Level-4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (SMAP RZSM) product includes RZSM (0–100 cm), 3-hourly, 9 km on EASE-Grid 2; and the SMOS Level 4 RZSM CATDS (SMOS RZSM) product provides daily RZSM (0–100 cm), 25 km spatial sampling on EASE-Grid 2 on a global scale. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of RZSM data derived from SMAP RZSM and SMOS RZSM products compared to in-situ measurements collected from IRIMO (Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization) sites from 2017 to 2020 in different regions of Iran. The evaluation results indicate that the SMOS RZSM data has higher accuracy compared to the SMAP RZSM data. The SMOS RZSM data has a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.03 to 0.09 m3m−3 and an unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) ranging from 0.03 to 0.05 m3m−3. The SMAP RZSM data has an RMSE range of 0.03 to 0.21 m3m−3 and an ubRMSE range of 0.02 to 0.08 m3m−3.

 

How to cite: Jamei, M., Asadi Oskouei, E., and Jamei, M.: Assessment of Root Zone Soil Moisture Products from the Passive Microwave sensors over Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-549, 2025.

EGU25-555 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.1

Forecasting soil moisture dynamics across diverse Indian river basins using a hybrid ConvLSTM model 

Koustav Nath, Kasipillai Sudalaimuthu Kasiviswanathan, and Purna Chandra Nayak

In this study, a Convolutional long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM) is employed to forecast soil moisture for three Indian river basins with varying climatic conditions namely Godavari, Narmada and Cauveri. Utilizing a complete dataset from AgERA5 ranging over a decade, a number of meteorological forcings inducing soil moisture dynamics are incorporated to inform our forecast model. Starting with a global scale, the data undergo rigorous preprocessing, being refined to cater to the Indian basin scale, and subsequently tailored for our deep learning paradigm. By configuring the methodology around ConvLSTM network, the intrinsic patterns within the dataset were captured. This unification of Convolution neural network (CNN) and Long-short term memory network (LSTM) safeguarded complete data processing in both spatial and temporal perspectives, thereby bestowing an unparalleled basis for dismembering complex spatial-temporal sequences, making it ideal for tasks like soil moisture forecasting using extensive meteorological data. An all-inclusive evaluation of the proposed network is presented in form of a comparative analysis with four baseline models across all the river basins mentioned. Results in terms of evaluation metrices, underscore the ConvLSTM-based model’s ability in untying the nuanced spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture ahead of the baseline models. The robustness of the proposed network is further scrutinized by correlating ConvLSTM-derived soil moisture forecasts with those derived from another satellite-based product, namely the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), juxtaposed against the AgERA5 reanalysis data for 3-day and 5-day forecast horizons across the same river basins, showing good correlation. Such proficiency, overlay the means for possible progressions in agricultural approaches, improved drought prediction, and advanced management of water resources across various Indian river basins.

How to cite: Nath, K., Kasiviswanathan, K. S., and Nayak, P. C.: Forecasting soil moisture dynamics across diverse Indian river basins using a hybrid ConvLSTM model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-555, 2025.

EGU25-936 | ECS | Orals | HS6.1

Inferring the spatiotemporal interdependency of soil moisture–rainfall Coincidences over the Indian region 

Sreekutty k s, Saroj Kumar dash, Sreelash krishnan, and Santosh g thampi

The increased climatic variability in the present scenario intensifies the coupled interaction of land-atmosphere component extremes. Spatiotemporal dependence of soil moisture (SM) and rainfall forms a crucial aspect of this interaction, which contributes to extreme events such as floods. Rainfall creates distinct signatures of SM throughout various soil profile, leading to antecedent SM that influence surface runoff. This underscores the need for a deeper understanding of SM– precipitation preconditioning, particularly in regions of high flood risk. In this study, we investigate the SM-precipitation coupling over India using an event-based, non-parametric Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) approach. The analysis is carried out for the year 2017, using the surface and root-zone SM (RZSM) data from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model and corresponding rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Extreme events of SM and rainfall across specific locations inside major river basins within different Indian regions (as per the IMD- based precipitation categories) are marked using the 95 th percentile threshold. The strength of coincidence between the two event-series was subsequently inferred using the two statistical ECA parameters: precursor (r p) and trigger (r t) coincidence rate. Results reveals a strong directional relationship of SM event that triggers rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular and central India, as indicated by their high trigger rate (r t =0.842 to 0.895) and moderate precursor rate (r p = 0.526 to 0.579). in contrast, northern India (both eastern and western region), exhibits a low EC (0.263–0.368), indicating an inconsistent time lag between the two extreme event series. Additionally, the RZSM demonstrates a comparatively moderate triggering and preconditioning effect on precipitation extremes in most of the regions, except for the Northwest, which reveals a lower coincidence value. Notably, this observation was revealed in one of the key locations within the Yamuna River basin which showed an identical r p and r t values of 0.053. Altogether, the present study enhances our understanding of SM-precipitation dynamics, offering critical insights for flood risk assessment. The findings of this study significantly contribute to disaster management over one of the globally recognized flood risk regions.

How to cite: k s, S., dash, S. K., krishnan, S., and thampi, S. G.: Inferring the spatiotemporal interdependency of soil moisture–rainfall Coincidences over the Indian region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-936, 2025.

EGU25-7207 | Orals | HS6.1

Impact of L-band Vegetation Optical Depth Temporal Variation on Soil Moisture Retrieval 

Andreas Colliander, Michael Cosh, Simon Kraatz, Laura Bourgeau-Chavez, Julian Chaubell, Xiaolan Xu, Vicky Kelly, Paul Siqueira, Kyle McDonald, Nick Steiner, Mehmet Kurum, Alexandre Roy, Aaron Berg, Cristina Vittucci, Leung Tsang, Dara Entekhabi, and Simon Yueh

Forests are one of the most essential components of the Earth system. They account for a large part of the total global photosynthetic activity, store a significant amount of the total carbon, and provide a habitat for countless species. At the same time, they offer critical resources to anthropogenic activities, such as timber, food, and firewood. Soil moisture (SM) plays a pivotal role in the processes governing all these functions. Low-frequency remote sensing is the only way to acquire a large spatial distribution of the forest SM because of its ability to carry the signal from the forest floor through the forest canopy to the satellite. Studies have shown that NASA's SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission, measuring brightness temperature at 1.4 GHz (L-band), is sensitive to SM changes in forests despite the interference by the forest canopy. The challenge is to accurately account for the attenuation, scattering, and emission by the canopy. The SMAP Validation Experiment 2019-2022 (SMAPVEX19-22) in the temperate forests of the northeast US collected a vast amount of in situ and other experimental data to improve SMAP's SM and L-band vegetation optical depth (L-VOD) retrievals in forested areas. The results from the experiment have shown that the transmissivity is substantially higher in the spring no-leaf conditions than later in the season, suggesting that the seasonal water content changes and phenology significantly affect L-band TB. While the effect is seasonal, substantial changes in the L-VOD response occurred within days as the water content and phenological changes occurred harmoniously across the large SMAP footprint (tens of km). Moreover, the frozen season effect on the tree permittivity affected the SMAP L-VOD at daily timescales as the trees within the SMAP footprint underwent changes between frozen and thawed states. The results underline the need for the SM and L-VOD retrieval algorithms to account for the short-timescale changes.

How to cite: Colliander, A., Cosh, M., Kraatz, S., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Chaubell, J., Xu, X., Kelly, V., Siqueira, P., McDonald, K., Steiner, N., Kurum, M., Roy, A., Berg, A., Vittucci, C., Tsang, L., Entekhabi, D., and Yueh, S.: Impact of L-band Vegetation Optical Depth Temporal Variation on Soil Moisture Retrieval, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7207, 2025.

EGU25-7602 | Orals | HS6.1

A Physics Based Satellite Soil Moisture Reconstruction Algorithm 

Ashish Sharma, Jhilam Sinha, and Lucy Marshall

Despite global coverage, remote sensing of soil moisture (SM) is challenged by coarse spatial sensor resolution and shallow sensing depth which result in systematic differences when compared to reference SM measured in-situ. Although improvements have been documented with assimilation of SMAP radiometer data with land surface models, a regionalized solution is needed that leverages crucial physical signatures (SM recessions) to provide further improved estimations, addressing systematic deviations that persist. A key drawback of existing algorithms is the lack of consideration of the uncertainty associated with different physical factors that modulate the SM time series. Specifically, SM drawdown is not influenced by precipitation, which reduces uncertainty considerably. In the present study, a novel approach is demonstrated that splits the SMAP Level 4 SM series, mechanically segregating the recession limbs that last at least 2 days and uses them to modify the complete time series. A bivariate recursive filtering approach is introduced that models the association of initial soil wetness and drying rate during the recession periods, minimizing the disparity to represent the same observed in-situ. Consequently, the modified drying attributes (initial wetness and recession rates) are utilized to reconstruct the complete time series. The approach is validated by comparing ensued estimates with the in-situ measurements from dense and sparse networks from April 2015 to March 2020. The validation metrics show improvements in the reconstructed SM series, with significant enhancements observed for the recession parts of the series. The combined procedure has performed well, demonstrating the importance of associativity of physical processes into SMAP assimilation observations for regional studies. 

How to cite: Sharma, A., Sinha, J., and Marshall, L.: A Physics Based Satellite Soil Moisture Reconstruction Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7602, 2025.

Passive microwave remote sensing has made significant strides in the estimation of soil moisture; however, several challenges persist. A ground-based radiometry experiment conducted in an agricultural setting sought to enhance microwave emission models and retrieval algorithms for soil moisture and vegetation water content. The multi-frequency, dual-polarized brightness temperature (TB) data demonstrated a strong correlation with surface soil moisture. Importantly, surface roughness and vegetation water content were found to significantly influence the relationship between brightness temperature and soil moisture. Calibration of the τ-ω model led to improved performance. By utilizing the experimental data alongside the calibrated model, we evaluated the effectiveness of single-channel (SCA), dual-channel (DCA), and multi-channel (MCA) algorithms for estimating soil moisture and vegetation water content within single-objective estimation (SOE) and dual-objective estimation (DOE) frameworks. The findings revealed that SOE outperformed DOE, with MCA-SOE achieving the highest level of accuracy. Overall, this study lays the groundwork for the further development of passive microwave remote sensing methodologies aimed at estimating soil moisture and vegetation water content.

How to cite: Ma, C., Zhang, Y., and Li, X.: Ground-Based Microwave Radiometry Experiment for the Calibration of Emission Models and Retrieval of Soil Moisture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7733, 2025.

Surface soil moisture is an important variable in the climate system, controlling the exchange of water, energy and carbon between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere. The quantification of surface soil moisture is also necessary for the simulation of climate change, the prediction of floods and droughts, and the optimal irrigation of agricultural land. Satellite altimeters are often used to monitor water levels (oceans and inland waters such as lakes, rivers and reservoirs) and the dynamics of ice sheets. However, due to the influence of surface roughness on the return waveforms captured by altimeters, they can also be used to estimate surface properties such as soil moisture. Against this background, the main objective of this study is to investigate the potential of conventional altimeters (Low Resolution Mode (LRM) satellite altimeters such as Jason series satellites, Envisat, Saral and...) and new generation altimeters (Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite altimeters such as Cryosat-2, Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6) in the estimation of surface soil moisture in the semi-arid region of Spain over the period 2016 to 2023. To achieve this goal, Level 2 (L2) data from the SRAL altimeter sensor of the Sentinel-3A satellite along the 644 pass and the Geophysical Data Record (GDR) from the Poseidon-3B altimeter sensor of the Jason-3 satellite along the 213 pass were used. In addition to the different acquisition geometry of these two altimetry satellites, the effectiveness of the re-tracking algorithms used in them for estimating soil surface moisture was also questioned in this study. The relationships between the observed backscatter coefficients derived from 4 re-tracking algorithms (re-tracker: Ocean re-tracker, OCOG re-tracker, Sea-ice re-tracker and Ice-sheet re-tracker) in the L2 data of the Sentinel-3A satellite and additionally 3 re-tracking algorithms (re-tracker: MLE-4 re-tracker, MLE-3 re-tracker and Ice re-tracker) in the GDR data of the Jason-3 satellite and the surface soil moisture obtained from ground stations (the ground station closest to the satellite pass was selected) were investigated. The results of the analysis show a strong linear relationship between the scattering coefficients derived from the satellite data and the corresponding soil moisture measurements obtained from ground stations along the coverage of the two satellites. The best results (highest correlation coefficient) for the Sentinel-3A and Jason-3 satellites were obtained with the Ocean Re-tracker (with a correlation coefficient of 0.75) and the Ice Re-tracker (with a correlation coefficient of 0.7), respectively. The MLE-3 re-tracker in the Jason-3 satellite has also obtained a result almost similar to the ICE re-tracker in one of the ground stations. While the results express the high performance of the Sentinel-3A and Jason-3 satellites in estimating surface soil moisture, they show the superiority of synthetic aperture radar altimeters over conventional altimeters in estimating surface soil moisture in the study area.

How to cite: Mardoukhi, M.: Investigate the potential of satellite altimeters in estimating surface soil moisture in semi-arid areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11200, 2025.

 Soil Moisture (SM) plays a crucial role in the hydrological characteristics of the Earth’s land surface, energy exchange, and climate change. The spaceborne GNSS-R (Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry) technique has developed as an effective method to retrieve land surface soil moisture. This study proposes a new semi-empirical method to estimate the land surface soil moisture from the spaceborne GNSS-R data. First, the Fresnel reflectivity is linearly modeled with the GNSS-R-derived reflectivity and coherency ratio and the environment variables (i.e. vegetation water content and surface roughness). Then the Fresnel reflectivity is used to estimate the soil moisture by the dielectric constant model. We apply our method to the Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) reflectometry data globally collected from 2021 to 2023. The CYGNSS-derived reflectivity and coherency ratio and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data in 2021 are used to construct the linear model. Then the global daily soil moisture data with a spatial resolution of 36 km from 2022 to 2023 are retrieved with the model. Our soil moisture retrievals and the official CYGNSS soil moisture product (SMCYGNSS) are compared to the SMAP SM. The results show that our soil moisture retrievals perform well (ubRMSE=0.043 cm3/cm3; R=0.62) and are superior to that of the SMCYGNSS (ubRMSE=0.059 cm3/cm3; R=0.34), with ubRMSE decreasing by 27.1%. The proposed method improves the soil moisture estimation and will benefit the physical interpretation of hydrological issues with GNSS-R.

How to cite: Hu, Y. and Gong, J.: A new method for retrieving daily land surface soil moisture using CYGNSS reflectometry data and coherency ratio, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11598, 2025.

One of the key research questions in terrestrial carbon cycling is concerned about how to advance our understanding of the processes underlying terrestrial CO2 fluxes and subsequently reduce related uncertainties in an integrated approach exploiting both observations (satellite and in situ) and modelling. Here, we demonstrate the synergistic exploitation of remotely sensed soil moisture observations together with additional observations from passive microwave and optical sensors for an improved understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles. As such, the Terrestrial Carbon Community Assimilation System (TCCAS), an activity funded by the European Space Agency within its Carbon Science Cluster, has been developed. TCCAS has at its core the community terrestrial ecosystem model D&B that is based on the well-established DALEC and BETHY models, and thus building on the strengths of each component model. In particular, it combines the dynamic simulation of the carbon pools and canopy phenology of DALEC with the dynamic simulation of water pools, and the canopy model of photosynthesis and energy balance of BETHY.  A suite of observation operators allows the simulation of surface layer soil moisture as well as solar-induced fluorescence, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, and vegetation optical depth from passive microwave sensors. TCCAS employs a variational assimilation system (making use of efficient tangent and adjoint code) that adjusts a combination of initial pool sizes and process parameters to match the observational data streams. The system is applied to two ICOS sites and regions around these sites: Sodankylä, Finland, representing a boreal forest biome, and Majadas de Tietar, Spain, representing a temperate savanna biome.  The model performance is assessed against independent observations at site scale as well as at approximately 500 km x 500 km regions around each site. We find that the assimilation of soil moisture in combination with the three other data streams has a profound impact on simulated ecosystem function and carbon fluxes at both sites/regions.

 

How to cite: Scholze, M. and the TCCAS team: Assimilation of soil moisture observations to constrain carbon fluxes in the  Terrestrial Carbon Community Assimilation System  (TCCAS), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11822, 2025.

EGU25-11864 | Orals | HS6.1

Estimating top-soil moisture at high spatiotemporal resolution in a highly complex landscape 

Dionissios Kalivas, Evangelos Dosiadis, and Konstantinos Soulis

Soil moisture is a critical variable in precision agriculture, hydrological modeling, and environmental monitoring, influencing crop productivity, irrigation planning, hydrological processes and water resource management. Advances in Earth Observation (EO) technologies enable high-resolution soil moisture estimation by integrating synthetic aperture radar (SAR), multispectral imagery, and ground-based measurements. This study describes a comprehensive methodology which is currently under development for near surface soil moisture estimation tailored to the diverse agricultural landscapes of Greece.

The primary objective is to develop and implement a national-scale soil moisture estimation methodology utilizing data from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites, supplemented by an in-situ soil moisture sensors network. The study region encompasses agricultural areas with heterogeneous soil types, land cover, and topographic variations, addressing the complexity of soil moisture dynamics in Mediterranean climates.

Ground truth data for model calibration and validation is provided by a network of IoT-based soil moisture sensors strategically placed to capture diverse soil textures and land cover classes. The network builds on existing stations and introduces additional sensors to enhance spatial coverage and data representativeness for top-soil moisture dynamics. The monitoring network was designed using geospatial analysis techniques considering all the biophysical features influencing soil moisture dynamics.

The methodology includes preprocessing dual-polarization backscatter data (VV and VH) from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. Vegetation effects on the backscatter signal are corrected using the Water Cloud Model (WCM), parameterized with NDVI from Sentinel-2 and empirical coefficients derived from field measurements. Corrected soil backscatter is combined with ancillary data and fed into machine learning models, including Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks, trained on in-situ soil moisture observations. Model performance is evaluated using metrics such as RMSE and R² to ensure predictive accuracy. The resulting high-resolution soil moisture maps reflect dynamic spatial and temporal variations with enhanced precision.

Preliminary results highlight the feasibility of integrating satellite and in-situ data for national-scale soil moisture mapping. WCM-based corrections significantly enhance SAR-derived backscatter accuracy, while machine learning models demonstrate strong predictive performance. The scalable methodology offers valuable insights for optimizing agricultural practices and water resource management.

How to cite: Kalivas, D., Dosiadis, E., and Soulis, K.: Estimating top-soil moisture at high spatiotemporal resolution in a highly complex landscape, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11864, 2025.

Soil moisture (SM) is a critical variable within the hydrological cycle, closely linked to weather patterns and climate change. However, the limited availability of high-resolution SM datasets, constrained by the resolution of satellite sensors, poses significant challenges for field-scale research, which is essential for agricultural management and precision irrigation planning. This study addresses this limitation by estimating daily SM across surface (0-5 cm), active rootzone (0-30 cm), and unsaturated zone (0-120 cm) depth at a spatial resolution of 10 m. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed using in-situ SM measurements as the training dataset. The predictor variables included meteorological parameters, topographic features, soil texture properties, Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signals, groundwater depth, and vegetation indices derived from Sentinel-2 imagery.

Model predictions were validated in the Twente and Raam regions of the Netherlands over a one-year period (2023-05-18 to 2024-05-18), using independent observations from six in-situ SM stations that were excluded from both the training and testing phases. The results indicated strong model performance, with unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) values ranging from 0.03 to 0.08 cm³/cm³ and Pearson correlation coefficients (R) from 0.71 to 0.90. Comparisons with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) SM product further corroborated the model’s accuracy. While the model effectively captured daily SM dynamics, particularly during winter months, some discrepancies, such as over- or under-estimations, were noted during the summer. These high-resolution SM estimates provide valuable insights for precision agriculture and hydrological research, enhancing decision-making processes in these fields.

How to cite: Duan, T., Zeng, Y., and Su, Z.: Estimating multi-depth daily soil moisture at 10 m resolution using SMAP SSM and Sentinel-1/2 data based on random forest regression algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12272, 2025.

Remote sensing and model-based soil moisture datasets now provide global, frequent, and overall consistent surface soil moisture estimates. However, the complexity of hydrological processes involved in soil moisture evolution, especially over challenging environments may exceed the capabilities of these datasets. 

Each type of soil moisture product has inherent limitations depending on their technique (e.g., coverage, interferences, signal-to-noise ratio, residual trends). However, there are soil moisture processes' characteristics, such as heterogeneity and transient states, that can affect each product differently depending on their capabilities across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Often, the performance of soil moisture products concerning these process-related factors is overlooked. Given the wide range of features (e.g., resolution, frequency, coverage) of current global soil moisture products, intercomparing them in complex soil moisture regimes can inform about their suitability for monitoring soil moisture in challenging environments of compromised resilience at regional and global scale. 

This study evaluates several cutting-edge surface soil moisture products for effective monitoring, including (1) active remote sensing (from ASCAT and Sentinel-1 radar data), (2) passive remote sensing (ESA Climate Change Initiative passive dataset (CCIp) and NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission), and (3) model-based products (GLOFASv4 using the LISFLOOD model). The intercomparison is applied across regions with distinct challenging soil moisture regimes, such as Africa's monsoonal belts, Europe's convective storm corridors, and the Mediterranean basin. These areas, often less understood and instrumented, are characterized by regime transitions differing in spatial and temporal scale, and range and pace of soil moisture alteration, making them useful for testing soil moisture products beyond the ordinary range used to test their performance. The study period is 2016-2022, with a 5 x 5 km resolution and two temporal resolutions 10-day period and daily scale (considering the revisit times often span several days). Validation uses surface soil moisture data from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) across Europe and Africa. 

Results indicate that hydrological monitoring focused on the long-term evolution of soil moisture (e.g., water resources assessment, drought, rainfed agriculture monitoring) is consistent across scales and environments for most products. However, monitoring soil moisture in areas with high spatial and temporal heterogeneity is more uncertain. Sentinel-1 data, with its high spatial resolution, excels in identifying patterns even at local scale but has limitations in temporal coverage, better addressed by products of short revisit times like ASCAT or model-based datasets less sensitive to time. CCIp, despite resolution constraints, effectively reproduces heterogeneity of the spatial patterns in the semi-arid areas of quick regime transitions, where active remote sensing and model-based estimates struggle. The more event-driven the process, the more uncertain the estimate of soil moisture evolution becomes, thus highlighting the need for higher temporal frequency over spatial resolution for near-real-time monitoring of impactful short-term events (e.g., floods, flash droughts). The study emphasizes the worth of evaluating products from the perspective of the target processes and encourages further research on their suitability to monitor soil moisture in unconventional conditions of regional and global relevance. 

How to cite: Gaona, J., Brocca, L., and Filippucci, P.: Suitability of remotely sensed and model-based soil moisture datasets for effective monitoring over regions of distinct challenging soil moisture regimes. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13383, 2025.

EGU25-13440 | Orals | HS6.1

Metrology for Multi-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring (SoMMet) and High-Resolution Earth Observation Validation 

Anna Balenzano, Francesco Mattia, Giuseppe Satalino, Davide Palmisano, Francesco P. Lovergine, Sascha E. Oswald, Martin Schrön, Gabriele Baroni, Sadra Emamalizadeh, Henrik Kjeldsen, Emil A. Klahn, Michele Rinaldi, Francesco Ciavarella, and Miroslav Zboril

Surface soil moisture (SSM) products derived from microwave remote sensing technology are currently operational at coarse resolutions (10-40 km) and global scale. Despite the utility of existing Earth Observation (EO) SSM products, there is significant scientific interest in enhancing the ability to resolve fine-scale surface heterogeneity. High spatial resolution soil moisture patterns (e.g., 0.1-1 km) can improve our quantitative understanding of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system and enhance applications such as mapping the impact of irrigation on local water budgets, assessing the effects of local soil moisture variability on atmospheric instability, and improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hydrological modeling at regional scales. Additionally, these high-resolution data are crucial for hydrometeorological research focusing on extreme weather events in the context of climate change.

The European Copernicus program, with its sustained observation strategy using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, including the European Radar Observatory Sentinel-1 (S-1), the S-1 Next Generation satellites, and the forthcoming EU L-band Radar Observation System for Europe (ROSE-L), motivates and stimulates the development of operational land surface monitoring at high spatial resolution.

From the EO SSM validation perspective, significant efforts have been made to define protocols, identify reference measurements (RMs), and address the spatial mismatch between EO SSM products and RMs, which are typically point-scale measurements from hydrologic networks. However, this process is still ongoing, particularly for high-resolution SSM products, and requires a collaborative effort among different scientific communities to achieve metrologically traceable EO SSM.

This paper presents the European project “Metrology for Multi-Scale Monitoring of Soil Moisture” (SoMMet), which aims to establish a metrological basis and harmonization in soil moisture measurements across scales, from point scale to remote sensing, through cosmic ray neutron sensors (CRNS). These sensors are characterized by different measurement supports in the horizontal, vertical, and temporal dimensions. A key aspect of the project is to conduct field campaigns at three high-level field sites across Europe: Marquardt in Northern Germany, Bondeno in Northern Italy, and the Apulian Tavoliere in Southern Italy. The comparison of soil moisture data from point scale, CRNS, and S-1 SSM at these experimental sites is discussed, and recommendations on EO SSM validation practices are provided.

Acknowledgment: The project 21GRD08 SoMMet has received funding from the European Partnership on Metrology, co-financed from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme and by the Participating States.

 

How to cite: Balenzano, A., Mattia, F., Satalino, G., Palmisano, D., Lovergine, F. P., Oswald, S. E., Schrön, M., Baroni, G., Emamalizadeh, S., Kjeldsen, H., Klahn, E. A., Rinaldi, M., Ciavarella, F., and Zboril, M.: Metrology for Multi-Scale Soil Moisture Monitoring (SoMMet) and High-Resolution Earth Observation Validation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13440, 2025.

Land surface soil moisture is a critical component in understanding the interactions between the water cycle, vegetation, and climate systems. It plays an important role in agricultural productivity, hydrological modeling, and climate predictions. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard the MetOp series of satellites, provides a consistent global soil moisture dataset with high spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the validation of satellite soil moisture products remains a challenge, particularly across diverse land cover types, where environmental and surface properties influence retrieval accuracy. This study aims to evaluate the performance of ASCAT soil moisture products for different land cover types using in-situ observations of different soil depths from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN).

The research focuses on examining ASCAT soil moisture retrievals across various land cover types, including forests, grasslands, croplands, bare soil, and urban areas. Statistical performance metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), and mean bias were utilized to quantify the agreement between the satellite-derived and ground-based datasets. Additionally, the study explores the influence of seasonal variability and climatic conditions on the performance of ASCAT-derived data. This comprehensive evaluation aims to enhance the understanding of how land surface characteristics affect the accuracy of soil moisture measurements.

Furthermore, this research examines the contribution of ASCAT soil moisture data to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Soil Moisture Operational Products System (SMOPS). SMOPS integrates ASCAT data with several other satellite soil moisture datasets to generate a blended, near-real-time soil moisture products that support a wide range of operational applications, including weather forecasting, drought monitoring, flood prediction, and climate studies. Spatially, ASCAT soil moisture made great contributions to the complete global daily coverage of SMOPS blended product, particularly over highly densely vegetated areas. This quality assessment work would definitely help us to understand its impacts on the quality of SMOPS blended product. 

How to cite: Liu, J., Zhan, X., Yin, J., and Fang, L.: Quality Assessment of the ASCAT Soil Moisture Product over Different Land Cover Types and its Impacts on NOAA Soil Moisture Operational Product System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14521, 2025.

EGU25-15566 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.1

Watershed Runoff Correlation Analysis through the Development of a Synchronization Model for Satellite and Ground-Based Soil Moisture Data in Korea 

Jae-Boem Lee, Yu Been Jung, Min Seong Ha, and Jeong-Seok Yang

Recently, Korea and the rest of the world have been experiencing significant changes in rainfall patterns, leading to an increase in sudden runoff caused by abrupt rainfall events. This phenomenon, referred to as “Abnormal flood,” has resulted in accumulating damage. Runoff responses to rainfall events vary depending on surface cover conditions. In the mid- and upstream regions of rivers with relatively low impermeable layers, antecedent soil moisture saturation plays a significant role. In Korea, soil moisture observations are characterized by much lower observation density and shorter data records compared to variables such as rainfall, river water levels, and discharge, making statistical estimation challenging. Additionally, uncertain soil moisture data from unmeasured watersheds have been used in traditional watershed runoff estimation models to adjust assumed values of spatial hydrological characteristics within watersheds, thereby correcting and back-calculating runoff. While runoff calculated based on such assumed soil moisture saturation values demonstrated high reliability under traditional hydrological conditions, the reliability of runoff prediction results has relatively decreased in the face of vast data produced by advanced real-time monitoring technologies and hydrological changes due to climate change. To address these issues, since 2022, this study has developed a model to produce relatively reliable watershed antecedent soil moisture saturation observation data by synchronizing satellite and ground-based soil moisture data. In Korea, ground-based soil moisture sensors measure soil moisture at depths of 0–10 cm, while satellite observation data measure soil moisture at depths of 0–5 cm. Therefore, synchronization of these two data sources is essential. This study developed a synchronization model for satellite and ground-based soil moisture data using machine learning and analyzed the correlation between watershed soil moisture variations estimated by the model and the occurrence of sudden runoff within watersheds. Although soil moisture saturation of watershed soils significantly impacts runoff hydrologically, soil moisture has shown relatively low importance in runoff estimation models due to the lack of accurate data. The high-resolution watershed soil moisture data produced by this study are expected to enhance the accuracy of runoff analysis results, thereby improving the reliability of anomalous flood prediction and analysis models.

How to cite: Lee, J.-B., Jung, Y. B., Ha, M. S., and Yang, J.-S.: Watershed Runoff Correlation Analysis through the Development of a Synchronization Model for Satellite and Ground-Based Soil Moisture Data in Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15566, 2025.

EGU25-16425 | Orals | HS6.1

Towards a high spatial resolution soil moisture product for Switzerland: observations, modeling, downscaling, and upscaling 

Elena Leonarduzzi, Simone Bircher-Adrot, Vincent Humphrey, Reed M. Maxwell, and Manfred Stähli

Information about wetness conditions of the soil is beneficial to hazard prediction and monitoring, water resources management, and weather and climate predictions. For most of these applications, it is important not only that the estimates are accurate, but also at high spatial resolution. Soil moisture can be measured in-situ, remotely or estimated by models. While in-situ measurements are considered the most accurate, networks are very expensive to maintain and provide very sparse coverage, allowing to monitor specific locations but not obtain spatially distributed information. Conversely, remote sensing products can provide estimates over large areas (globally), but lack the spatial resolution required for these applications.

Here, we focus on Switzerland, with the goal of exploring different alternatives for obtaining soil moisture information. We compare existing products (satellite products, in situ observations, hydrological models) with two methods developed here: a downscaling approach, downscaling satellite observations (SMAP), and one based on upscaling of in situ observations. The former overcomes classical limitations of downscaling (i.e., being spatially limited to existing soil moisture observations stations and the scale mismatch) by training a Machine Learning (ML) downscaling model on physic-based simulations (ParFlow-CLM). The latter, similarly, takes advantage of physics-based simulations (Tethys-Chloris) to train a ML model able to predict soil moisture at any given location provided local meteorology (precipitation and temperature) as well as observed soil moisture at existing stations.

We compare all these products among each other and with in situ observations, both temporally, comparing timeseries at stations’ locations, and spatially, comparing daily values at the different station locations. This comparison allows to assess the quality of the different products and even to identify issues with stations’ observations. We find the upscaling approach compares best to observations, but it also uses them as inputs. Interestingly, when looking at the spatial standard deviation (std) of the different products at stations, the lack of variability of the satellite product (too small std) is improved in the downscaled version. This demonstrates that while the scale mismatch does not allow direct comparison with stations (250x250m2 resolution of the downscaled product, a few centimeters for the in-situ measurements), the downscaling is very beneficial, adding higher resolution spatial variability.

How to cite: Leonarduzzi, E., Bircher-Adrot, S., Humphrey, V., Maxwell, R. M., and Stähli, M.: Towards a high spatial resolution soil moisture product for Switzerland: observations, modeling, downscaling, and upscaling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16425, 2025.

EGU25-16848 | Orals | HS6.1

Towards High Resolution Soil Moisture Observation from Space 

Ronald Scheirer, Adam Dybbroe, and Martin Raspaud

The need for more accurate, higher-resolution and longer-lasting weather forecasts 
has continued to increase in recent years. In order to meet this need, the input data 
used must, among other things, be provided in high resolution. This is a problem for
soil moisture. 
Large-scale observations of soil moisture are usually carried out using space-born 
microwave instruments. A high spatial resolution requires a large antenna. The maximum 
spatial resolution is therefore limited by the design of the satellite. 

The proposed algorithm for a higher resolution soil moisture product combines a low 
resolution microwave based soil moisture product with higher resolution reflectivities 
in the red and near infrared. This allows to use any microwave product in combination 
with any imager featuring AVHRR heritage channels.
The soil moisture for vegetated pixel is derived by the NDVI itself and for bare land
from water absorption. To prevent soil moisture values from drifting and to make
sure the overall good quality on the rough scale is preserved, a scaling towards
microwave product is performed.

In this presentation we will show intercomparisons of derived soil moisture with in
situ surface observations. Different sources of errors will be discussed and possibilities
to reduce their influence.

How to cite: Scheirer, R., Dybbroe, A., and Raspaud, M.: Towards High Resolution Soil Moisture Observation from Space, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16848, 2025.

Soil moisture (SM) is the amount of water contained in soil and is a key variable at earth surface which controls many processes like erosion, evapotranspiration and infiltration. In deeper layers and root zone area, it controls vegetation health and surface coverage conditions. Traditional methods for SM monitoring, such as field-based measurements, are accurate but provide only point-based results. Given the heterogeneous nature of SM across time and space, remote sensing and machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as valuable tools. These approaches can efficiently handle large datasets, and provide measurements at regular intervals, offering an innovative alternative for SM estimation in large scale regions.

In this study we evaluated the potential of multi-spectral optical remote sensing for SM estimation by examining the dependency between Sentinel-2 images and SM measurements from two datasets: the REMEDHUS network (Spain) and the SMOSMANIA network (France). The REMEDHUS network is located in an agricultural region while the SMOSMANIA network spans a 400 km transect from the Mediterranean Sea to the Atlantic Ocean. Both networks provide hourly SM measurements at the depth of -5cm, with additional measurements at depths of -10cm, -20cm, -30cm for the SMOSMANIA network. To achieve this, Harmonized Sentinel-2 (MSI) data, from Google Earth Engine, were used to predict SM. Surface reflectance from 12 spectral bands, along with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference water Index (NDWI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used as features in regression models and recorded SM (close to the time of satellite overpass) was taken as the target variable. To ensure consistency in the analysis, the Sentinel-2 image collection was filtered by location (the coordinate of each sensor), study period (2017-2022) and cloud cover (maximum acceptable cloud cover = 10%).  Later all spectral bands were resampled to a uniform spatial resolution of 10 meters.

Three ML algorithms were applied to model the relationship between predictor variables and SM: Random Forest Regression (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR). Model performance was assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). For the REMEDHUS network, RF achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 0.08319 m³/m³. In the SMOSMANIA network, all three algorithms performed best at a depth of -20 cm, with SVR achieving the lowest RMSE (0.0591 m³/m³). Additionally, the weighted vertical average from the SVR model yielded the lowest overall RMSE of 0.0551 m³/m³.

Comparisons between actual and predicted SM values for each testing sensor confirm the role of land-use type on model’s performance. Another consideration is the model's ability to predict SM within specific moisture content ranges. Although data from the SMOSMANIA and REMEDHUS networks exhibit completely different measured SM values and originate from different land use types, both models demonstrate optimal performance within the range of 0.1 to 0.4 m³/m³, with RMSE = 0.034 for REMEDHUS network and RMSE= 0.04 for SMOSMANIA network.

How to cite: Gachpaz, S., Boni, G., Moser, G., and Federici, B.: Machine Learning-Based Soil Moisture Estimation Using Sentinel-2 MSI Data: Case Studies from the REMEDHUS (Spain) and SMOSMANIA (France) Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18781, 2025.

Soil moisture is crucial for ecosystem functioning, as it influences biological and biogeochemical processes. It regulates water, energy, and carbon cycles, playing a key role in ecosystem organization, biodiversity, and vegetation resilience. However, soil moisture dynamics are increasingly impacted by climate change. Shifts in precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and intensifying droughts are amplifying spatio-temporal variability. These challenges highlight the need for reliable representations of soil moisture, to enable adaptive forestry practices, and strategies to mitigate ecosystem vulnerabilities. In general, topographic models are considered as reliable sources for representing soil moisture.

Extensive research has validated topographic modelling of soil moisture, but most studies have focused on northern regions, leaving a scarcity of empirical data for Central Europe. This study investigated five sites in temperate forests of Germany, dominated by cambisols, with over 2,000 measurement locations. The objectives were to (1) analyse the spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture, (2) examine correlations with topographic indices under varying seasonal conditions, and (3) validate soil moisture estimates provided by the ERA5-Land dataset.

The results indicated that temporal variability in soil moisture was approximately 3.6 times greater than spatial variability. Flow-accumulation-based indices were poor predictors of spatial moisture patterns. The variability explained (R²) by indices such as the depth-to-water index ranged between 1% and 4% only and did not align with expected seasonal trends. Mesorelief, represented by the topographic position index, showed weak but consistent correlations at selected sites. Temporal variations in soil moisture were effectively captured by ERA5-Land reanalysis data, with site-specific adaptations yielding R² values of up to 98%.

These findings reveal the limitations and potential applications of soil moisture modelling. Moreover, they can contribute to improving soil–plant–atmosphere models and inform sustainable forest management strategies in the context of a changing climate.

How to cite: Schönauer, M., Winkler, M., and Drollinger, S.: Spatial variations in soil moisture in temperate forest independent of topographic moisture indices, yet ERA5-Land retrievals accurately reflect their temporal variations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19477, 2025.

EGU25-19782 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.1

Sentinel-1 SAR Data and Artificial Neural Networks for Soil Moisture Estimation in Olive Orchards 

Ana Cláudia Carvalhais Teixeira, Pedro Marques, Matúš Bakon, Anabela Fernandes-Silva, Domingos Lopes, and Joaquim Sousa

Accurate estimation of soil moisture is vital for sustainable water management in agriculture, particularly in olive orchards where precise irrigation strategies are crucial for maintaining productivity and crop quality. Climate change intensifies water scarcity, intensifying the need for advanced methodologies to optimize agricultural water use. Remote sensing technologies, such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), have emerged as promising tools for monitoring soil moisture over large areas. When combined with in situ measurements and data-driven models like Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), these technologies offer scalable solutions for addressing the challenges of soil moisture estimation in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes.

This study integrates Sentinel-1 SAR data with ANN models to estimate soil moisture in olive orchards located in the Vilariça Valley, northeastern Portugal. Soil moisture measurements were recorded at a depth of 10 cm every 30 minutes from July 2020 to December 2021. Sentinel-1 SAR images were acquired in dual polarizations (VV and VH), and synthetic bands were generated through arithmetic operations combining polarization and calibration metrics (Beta, Sigma, Gamma, Gamma TF), yielding 24 features per image. Two datasets were constructed to evaluate the impact of orbit geometry: (1) D1, containing 161 images from ascending orbits, and (2) D2, comprising 246 images from ascending and descending orbits.

The ANN regression model, comprising six hidden layers and K-fold cross-validation (20 splits), demonstrated greater performance with the D1 dataset, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.78, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.69, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 8.26%. In contrast, the D2 dataset showed reduced accuracy (RMSE: 3.96, R²: 0.59, MAPE: 12.41%), likely due to variability introduced by combining ascending and descending orbits. These findings underscore the importance of dataset homogeneity in SAR-based soil moisture modeling.

This study highlights the potential of integrating Sentinel-1 SAR data with ANN models for soil moisture estimation in olive orchards, contributing to the development of sustainable agricultural practices. Future work should focus on addressing dataset imbalances by expanding the range of observed conditions, incorporating topographic features, and exploring advanced data augmentation techniques to enhance model robustness and scalability.

 

Acknowledgments

This work is financed by National Funds through the Portuguese funding agency, FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, within project LA/P/0063/2020. DOI 10.54499/LA/P/0063/2020 https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0063/2020 and a doctoral scholarship in a non-academic environment at Fundação Côa Parque (PRT/BD/154871/2023).

 

How to cite: Carvalhais Teixeira, A. C., Marques, P., Bakon, M., Fernandes-Silva, A., Lopes, D., and Sousa, J.: Sentinel-1 SAR Data and Artificial Neural Networks for Soil Moisture Estimation in Olive Orchards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19782, 2025.

EGU25-19901 | Orals | HS6.1

A first CRNS cluster for soil moisture retrieval designed for comparison with remote sensing 

Sascha E. Oswald, Elodie Marret-Sicard, Peter Große, Lena Scheiffele, Katya Dimitrova Petrova, Peter Bíró, Martin Schrön, Daniel Altdorff, Maik Heistermann, and Till Francke

Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive method to retrieve root zone soil moisture as daily time series for an area integrated that is up to 0.1 km². This area can be expanded by combining several CRNS-stations into one cluster, not only increasing its extent as an integral but also allowing for differences inbetween them to represent spatially varying conditions. Such a cluster has been established in Maquardt, Potsdam, Germany end of 2019, with a mixed land use of cropped fields, meadows and orchards. This CRNS cluster has been expanded by additional CRNS stations and side measurements during 2023 to improve its capability to serve as soil moisture reference network for satellite remote sensing such as the ESA Sentinel-1 Earth Observation mission. This was part of the EU-wide collaboration project SoMMet addressing soil moisture observations from a metrological perspective, with a focus on CRNS to bridge the scale between point measurements and remote sensing.
We will outline the design and capabilities of this specific CRNS cluster. It includes not only 16 CRNS stations, partly with very high device sensitivity, but also a soil moisture network of point sensors, as each CRNS stations includes a profile soil moisture probe down to 40 cm at least and additional shallow soil moisture measurements at 5 and 15 cm depths. Overall, this constitutes a triple network (CRNS, shallow soil moisture, root-zone soil moisture) covering about completely 0.5 km²; in its core area CRNS stations are placed densely, and with spacing increasing to the outside an outer area of about 2 km² is covered in a non-dense way. CRNS stations were individually calibrated by individual measurement campaigns to achieve a high-accuracy and representativeness for its location. We will present first results from the first-year of operation (2024) in its final, full cluster design and discuss its value in respect to future use as reference network or establishment as fiducial reference measurement.

Acknowledgment: The project Cosmic Sense has received funding from German Research Foundation (DFG, roject number 357874777) and the project 21GRD08 SoMMet has received funding from the European Partnership on Metrology, co-financed from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme and by the Participating States.

 

How to cite: Oswald, S. E., Marret-Sicard, E., Große, P., Scheiffele, L., Dimitrova Petrova, K., Bíró, P., Schrön, M., Altdorff, D., Heistermann, M., and Francke, T.: A first CRNS cluster for soil moisture retrieval designed for comparison with remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19901, 2025.

EGU25-20282 | Orals | HS6.1

Proposal for A Global Soil Moisture Monitoring System Using GNSS-IR and Optical Remote Sensing 

Rida Awad, Fadi Kizel, and Gilad Even-Tzur

Global Navigation Satellite System Interferometric Reflectometry (GNSS-IR) extracts information about the surrounding environment of a ground-based GNSS antenna by analyzing the differences between direct signals and reflected multipath signals. In recent years, the use of GNSS-IR has become increasingly prevalent, driven by the growing demand for environmental monitoring. One of the most critical parameters for monitoring the environment is soil moisture due to its role in the water-heat transfer and energy exchange between the soil and the atmosphere, influencing the hydrological cycle. Soil moisture has been estimated via GNSS-IR using the GNSS multipath signal phase, which is determined by using observed Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) values, because of a strong link between the multipath signal phase and the soil moisture. However, although there are thousands of continuously operating GNSS stations worldwide, most are used for navigation, and their potential to be used in GNSS-IR is yet to be fully explored both as standalone stations and as part of a broader global network.

The International GNSS Service (IGS) network is one of the most expansive global GNSS networks.  While the IGS stations vary in installation and surroundings, they collectively provide global coverage and continuously accessible and reliable data. We evaluated each station against criteria such as minimum antenna height and relevant surrounding topography. We found that several IGS stations can be utilized to estimate soil moisture, as approximately 33% are suitable for GNSS-IR. Each station's coverage can reach hundreds of square meters depending on the GNSS antenna height. Next, we use discrete soil moisture estimates based on optical remote sensing multispectral data, such as Sentinel-2 data, to fit a model that continuously estimates soil moisture using the suitable IGS stations' GNSS multipath signal SNR data. These discrete estimates can estimate volumetric soil moisture with a precision of around 0.02 [m^3/m^3] for a pixel's area of around [10 x 10] [m]. When combined with GNSS-IR data, they enable continuous soil moisture estimation with a comparable precision for the same area.

This approach enables establishing a global, continuous soil moisture monitoring system that leverages the continuous observations of GNSS-IR and the extensive coverage of the IGS network. Unlike optical remote sensing satellites, which are constrained by a 3–5-day revisit time, this system provides consistent, weather-independent measurements. By combining the continuous monitoring capabilities of GNSS-IR with the discrete, in-situ-independent soil moisture estimates from optical remote sensing, the system holds promise for global and continuous soil moisture monitoring with decent precision.

In this study, we present the initial results of a global soil moisture monitoring system utilizing data from several IGS stations located across various regions worldwide. Over a limited timeframe, we provide daily and sub-daily soil moisture estimates, demonstrating the system's potential for continuous and reliable environmental monitoring.

How to cite: Awad, R., Kizel, F., and Even-Tzur, G.: Proposal for A Global Soil Moisture Monitoring System Using GNSS-IR and Optical Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20282, 2025.

EGU25-20312 | Orals | HS6.1

Reprocessed NOAA SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture Product as a Climate Data Record  

Jifu Yin, Xiwu Zhan, and Jicheng Liu

Soil Moisture is a vital state variable influencing land surface dynamics across hydrological, meteorological, and climatological contexts. The Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS), developed by the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has been operationally providing satellite soil moisture observational data products for scientific studies and numerical weather and water predictions. However, the lack of a high-quality long-term SMOPS product has led to pronounced fluctuations in data quality across distinct versions and notable uncertainties for climatological studies and prolonged data assimilation operations. To address these issues, NESDIS has reprocessed SMOPS with all available satellite soil moisture observations to generate a Climate Data Record (SMOPScdr). SMOPScdr incorporates advancements of using machine learning approaches, satellite radiances calibration, inter-satellite bias correction, and observation-driven quality control. The reprocessed product offers improved accuracy, expanded spatial coverage, and an extended observation period from 2002 to present. The advancement makes this product valuable for both meteorological and climatological studies. SMOPScdr has been compared to in situ observations and Soil Moisture Active and Passive data, demonstrating consistent performance and superior spatiotemporal coverage. We showcase a range of successful scientific and operational applications of this new product in climate change research, flood and drought monitoring. The initial release of the SMOPScdr data is now available to the public and will undergo further refinement based on feedback from the scientific, operational and industrial communities. This study outlines the development and evaluation of the SMOPScdr product, highlights its potential applications, and invites users to shape future directions for its improvement.   

How to cite: Yin, J., Zhan, X., and Liu, J.: Reprocessed NOAA SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture Product as a Climate Data Record , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20312, 2025.

Accurate soil moisture estimation is fundamental for optimizing irrigation strategies, enhancing crop yields, and managing water resources efficiently. This study harnesses time-series RGB-thermal imagery to assess soil moisture throughout various growth stages of corn, emphasizing depth-specific soil moisture estimation and time-series analysis of canopy information such as canopy structure and canopy spectral across growth stages. By integrating a comprehensive dataset that covers the full spectrum of the growing season from early to late stages. we evaluated soil moisture at multiple depths including 10, 20, 30, and 40 cm. Sophisticated regression models such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were employed to analyze the effects of spectral indices, land surface temperature (LST), and structural canopy variables on soil moisture estimation accuracy. Our results reveal that thermal variables, particularly LST, exhibit significant correlations with soil moisture at shallower depths, especially in non-irrigated plots where moisture variability tends to be greater. The GBM model performed exceptionally well, achieving a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.79 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.86 % at a depth of 10 cm, showcasing its precision in moisture prediction. At a depth of 30 cm, the GBM model still demonstrated robust performance with an R² of 0.69 and an RMSE of 3.38 %, adapting effectively to different canopy densities and soil conditions. As canopy density increased, the effectiveness of LST in predicting soil moisture decreased, underscoring the dynamic interaction between plant growth stages and moisture estimation accuracy.

How to cite: shafian, S.: Depth-specific soil moisture estimation in vegetated corn fields using a canopy-informed model: A fusion of RGB-thermal drone data and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20602, 2025.

Soil moisture is fundamentally important for drought monitoring, hydrologic forecasting, weather and climate predictions, agriculture and forest management, and many other applications. Advancements in satellite observations and land data assimilation systems (LDAS) have created new opportunities for field-scale soil moisture monitoring locally and across the globe. Using satellite and LDAS data to estimate soil moisture across multiple scales would benefit many applications and scientific research, especially for locations where ground soil moisture observations are not available. In this study, we introduce a deep learning emulator, namely Scalable Deep Learning for Soil Moisture Monitoring (SDLS), for root-zone soil moisture monitoring from the field to the regional scales. The SDLS method uses LDAS forcings and simulations from sampled locations to a bidirectional long short-term memory (B-LSTM) deep learning model, and is further applied to 30-m satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET), land cover, and topographic data, and digital soil property data. Evaluation of SDLS emulations demonstrates robust performance, with a mean squared error (MSE) below 0.0004, a Pearson correlation coefficient exceeding 0.8, and a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score above 0.75 against LDAS soil moisture. SDLS method can generate daily soil moisture at 30-m resolution and can capture field-scale variability and drought, well matching with in situ observations. With additional deep learning postprocessing, the performance of the SDLS soil moisture against in situ observations can be further improved. The strength of the SDLS method lies in its ability to leverage process-based physical knowledge in land surface models to estimate soil moisture using satellite observations in a scalable way, which can be readily applied to new locations without the need for ground observations.  

How to cite: Kumar, S. and Tian, D.: A deep learning emulator for scalable soil moisture monitoring based on satellite and land data assimilation system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21925, 2025.

EGU25-21929 | Posters on site | HS6.1

Combining CYGNSS and SMAP for Soil Moisture Estimation in East Asia 

Yinji Li, Doyoung Doyoung, and Minha Choi

The increase in extreme weather events due to climate change has led to irregular patterns in the hydrological cycle. In East Asia, a region characterized by a monsoon climate, natural disasters such as droughts and floods have become increasingly prevalent. This trend has underscored the necessity for effective soil moisture monitoring, as it is a crucial element in the hydrological cycle. To this end, various machine learning techniques based on satellite data combined with in-situ soil moisture observations are being actively researched for precise soil moisture estimation. However, the existing satellite images have limitations in temporal resolution compared to in-situ observations, and there is a need to improve the temporal resolution. In this study, soil moisture was estimated by linear regression using Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) reflectivity and Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 2 (SMAP L2) soil moisture, vegetation opacity, surface roughness, and soil surface temperature in East Asia. The CYGNSS-based soil moisture was validated alongside SMAP Level 4 (L4) and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) L2 data using Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) analysis, which demonstrated the high accuracy of CYGNSS. The results of this study provide high temporal resolution soil moisture data for East Asia, which can contribute to efficient hydrological factor monitoring and management.

 

How to cite: Li, Y., Doyoung, D., and Choi, M.: Combining CYGNSS and SMAP for Soil Moisture Estimation in East Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21929, 2025.

EGU25-1624 | ECS | PICO | HS6.3

Warming Triggers Snowfall Fraction Loss Thresholds in High-Mountain Asia 

Yupeng Li, Yaning Chen, Fan Sun, Xueqi Zhang, and Yifeng Hou

Snowfall, a crucial indicator of climate change, is essential for freshwater supply and glacier health. Accurately classifying precipitation types, especially in the rain-snow transition zone, is vital for understanding climate impacts. While previous studies have used snowfall fractions for classification, they often overlook the nuances of regional variations and tipping points. High Mountain Asia (HMA), with its complex topography and rapid warming, is an ideal region to study snowfall thresholds. This research aims to: (1) identify key snowfall fraction thresholds to categorize HMA into distinct precipitation dominance categories, (2) project the future evolution of these dominant precipitation types using CMIP6 model data, including estimates of transition times for various precipitation types, and (3) assess uncertainties in snowfall fraction predictions by comparing temperature- and temperature-relative humidity-based precipitation phase identification methods. This research can provide a valuable scientific resource for identifying climate-sensitive areas and regions at high risk of snowfall loss within HMA.

In this study, a continuous piecewise linear regression model was employed to classify HMA into four distinct precipitation regimes: insensitive snowfall-dominated areas, sensitive snowfall-dominated areas, sensitive rainfall-dominated areas, and insensitive rainfall-dominated areas. Our results show that future warming will increase the sensitivity of winter and spring snowfall to climate change, whereas summer and autumn snowfall will become less sensitive. All four precipitation regimes exhibit an upward shift to higher elevations, with varying rates of elevation gain across regions and seasons. Temperature is the primary driver of snowfall loss, whereas relative humidity mitigates it. This study identifies high-risk areas vulnerable to snowfall loss, guiding the development of effective mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Li, Y., Chen, Y., Sun, F., Zhang, X., and Hou, Y.: Warming Triggers Snowfall Fraction Loss Thresholds in High-Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1624, 2025.

EGU25-3516 | PICO | HS6.3

Satellite remote sensing of red algal blooms in the snow of the European Alps  

Marie Dumont, Léon Roussel, Simon Gascoin, Diego Monteiro, Mathias Bavay, Pierre Nabat, Jade Ezzedine, Mathieu Fructus, Matthieu Lafaysse, Samuel Morin, and Eric Maréchal

In the European Alps, snow sometimes takes a blood-like color in late spring due to the presence of snow algal blooms. These blooms decrease snow albedo, accelerating snowmelt and potentially feeding back on snow and glacier decline caused by climate change. In the Alps, so far, only sparse information exists regarding the frequency and location of these blooms. We developed a methodology to identify red snow algal blooms in the European Alps on Sentinel-2 image that enabled to separate red blooms from similarly colored snow due to Saharan dust depositions that occurs frequently in the Alps. The methodology was evaluated using 4600 webcam images. We applied the methodology to 5 years of Sentinel-2 images to generate an atlas of snow algal blooms in the Alps.

The atlas was combined to detailed simulations of the snow and meteorological conditions to identify the drivers of the blooms in the Alps as well as to quantify the maximum contributions of red algal blooms to snow melt. Based on this analysis and on projections on the future snow and meteorological conditions under different emission scenarios, we finally conclude that the occurrences of red snow algal blooms in the European Alps by the end of the century will either stay stable or slightly decrease.

How to cite: Dumont, M., Roussel, L., Gascoin, S., Monteiro, D., Bavay, M., Nabat, P., Ezzedine, J., Fructus, M., Lafaysse, M., Morin, S., and Maréchal, E.: Satellite remote sensing of red algal blooms in the snow of the European Alps , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3516, 2025.

Accurate snow cover information is crucial for studying global climate and hydrology. Existing snow cover fraction products struggle to balance temporal coverage and spatial resolution. We propose a new method to produce daily cloud-free SCF products at a 5 km resolution for the Northern Hemisphere from 1981 to 2024. This approach integrates advanced techniques such as asymptotic radiative transfer (ART), physics-constrained deep learning, stacked ensembles, and multi-level decision trees. Specifically, we develop a deep learning algorithm for SCF retrieval based on enhanced resolution passive microwave data (6.25 km), considering brightness temperature, soil properties, and land cover types. A cloud discrimination algorithm using a multi-level decision tree based on AVHRR data is constructed to improve the ability to distinguish between snow and clouds in medium-resolution optical remote sensing data. By utilizing surface reflectance remote sensing data, terrain data, and meteorological reanalysis, we establish a physics-constrained deep neural network model to accurately estimate SCF. Furthermore, we develop different fusion strategies for SCF in cloudy and cloud-free regions based on microwave and optical remote sensing, employing deep learning algorithms and ensemble learning techniques. This product is expected to better serve global climate, hydrological, and related research.

How to cite: hao, X. and Zhao, Q.: Production of a High-Precision Daily Cloud-Free Snow Cover Fraction Product at 5 km Resolution for the Northern Hemisphere (1981-2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5480, 2025.

EGU25-5483 | ECS | PICO | HS6.3

Lidar-based estimation of snow depth and SWE in north boreal and sub-arctic sites 

Maiju Ylönen, Hannu Marttila, Anton Kuzmin, Pasi Korpelainen, Timo Kumpula, and Pertti Ala-Aho

Snow is an important part of the hydrological cycle in high-latitude and mountainous regions, influencing global climate, ecosystems, water resource management, and human societies. Accurate, high-resolution snow cover data are increasingly needed for model inputs, predictions, and societal risk management. Snow distribution is influenced by weather and topography, often exhibiting consistent patterns across locations, such as areas prone to faster melting or wind-blown accumulation. Thus, there is major local variation, making modelling and predictions challenging.

This study tests a novel measurement of snow water equivalent in the boreal landscape through the combination of UAV lidar technology, machine learning and ground measurements. We focus on three different study sites in Finnish Lapland, Pallas, Sodankylä and Oulanka, each representing different vegetational and topographical conditions typical of the boreal and sub-arctic landscapes. The field data were collected in four campaigns during the winter of 2023–24 from UAV-based lidar, manual snow course measurements, and snow depth sensor network. Based on measurements, we defined clusters for variable snow accumulation sections in study sites using a k-means machine learning algorithm, and daily snow height estimates were created for each cluster from reference snow depth measurements. The created clusters and their daily snow heights were then used as input for the Δsnow model (Winkler et al., 2021) to estimate catchment-scale daily snow water equivalent (SWE) and its distribution.

Three different clusters were defined in all sites by the lidar-based snow depth maps, typically corresponding to open areas, transition zones and forested areas. Each established cluster represents three different snow development patterns during the winter, from early winter to melt. The clustering approach allowed the upscaling of snow course measurements with reasonable accuracy, producing daily SWE and snow depth estimates that aligned with observed measurements.

The results show a promising contribution of UAV lidar mapping to catchment-scale snow monitoring, providing improved spatial and temporal accuracy for daily snow depth and SWE mapping in different areas. The work is important for estimating snow cover and melting for flood prediction, hydropower operation and water availability estimation.

How to cite: Ylönen, M., Marttila, H., Kuzmin, A., Korpelainen, P., Kumpula, T., and Ala-Aho, P.: Lidar-based estimation of snow depth and SWE in north boreal and sub-arctic sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5483, 2025.

NASA Earth Science Division’s Water and Energy Cycle Focus Area (hereafter, WEC) supports investigations of the distribution, transport, and transformation of water and energy within the Earth system through Earth observing missions, airborne field campaigns, directed research at NASA Centers, competed research programs, and support for the World Climate Research Programme International Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Project. During 2017-2023, WEC supported four field campaigns as part of its Snow EXperiment (SnowEX: https://snow.nasa.gov/snowex) and WEC continues to invest in research that leverages SnowEx data, including Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) and Snow Water Equivalent Synthetic Aperture Radar and Radiometer (SWESARR) observations, to advance global satellite-based snow water equivalent (SWE) monitoring and modeling capabilities. Seasonal snowpack dynamics play an integral role in the Earth system by regulating local surface energy budgets, impacting the timing and availability of snowmelt, and consequently, influencing the availability of water for ecosystems and human society. New research suggests that snow variability can also have significant non-local climate impacts. For example, between springtime Tibetan Plateau snow cover and summer US climate.

This presentation provides an overview of NASA WEC’s recent and ongoing snow-related research and highlights opportunities for future international participation. We will introduce twelve new research projects that all leverage SnowEx data, four of which will pursue development of global SWE retrievals from the forthcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar mission. Then, we will summarize related activities supported across NASA’s Earth Science Division, including land data assimilation and modeling, commercial satellite data evaluation, remote sensing theory, and instrument development. To close, we will suggest potential opportunities for international collaboration that could be facilitated through GEWEX and NASA’s Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment program.

How to cite: Ferguson, C. and Entin, J.: NASA Remote Sensing of Seasonal Snow: SnowEx campaigns, ongoing research, and future opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7193, 2025.

EGU25-7808 | ECS | PICO | HS6.3

Recent developments in remote sensing of SWE using InSAR 

Ross Palomaki, Zachary Hoppinen, Jack Tarricone, Randall Bonnell, Sebastien Lenard, and Karl Rittger

Satellite remote sensing of snow water equivalent (SWE) at high spatiotemporal resolutions remains an unsolved challenge in snow hydrology. While accurate and high resolution measurements of snow surface properties (e.g., snow cover, grain size, albedo) can be derived from multispectral and hyperspectral data, these sensors cannot provide direct SWE information. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has the potential to measure SWE directly because the radar signal at sufficiently low frequencies can penetrate a dry snowpack. Depending on the SAR frequency used, both backscatter-based and interferometric (InSAR) approaches have been demonstrated. Here we present recent results from several studies that investigate remote sensing of SWE using airborne L-band (1.26 GHz) and spaceborne C-band (5.405 GHz) InSAR data. Because the InSAR technique is sensitive to changes in atmospheric and soil conditions as well as snow, one way to determine where to apply the technique is to incorporate satellite-based optical snow cover maps alongside the InSAR data. We show that careful selection of optical snow data is necessary because differences in the spatial and temporal resolutions between the optical and InSAR products propagate uncertainties into SWE calculations, which can change the final SWE estimates by more than 100%. Additionally, optical sensors can accurately detect snow cover in forested areas with canopy densities up to 60%, but vegetation effects may cause temporal decorrelation in InSAR data over these environments and prevent the retrieval of SWE information. Using data from two field sites in Colorado, USA, we show that InSAR coherence generally remains sufficiently high over temporal baselines of 12 days or more, allowing unbiased SWE estimates to be obtained across landscapes with canopy densities up to 40%. These results show the potential for SWE monitoring with the L-band InSAR sensor on the NISAR satellite, especially when combined with other SAR (e.g. Sentinel-1) and optical (e.g. Landsat 8/9) satellites.

How to cite: Palomaki, R., Hoppinen, Z., Tarricone, J., Bonnell, R., Lenard, S., and Rittger, K.: Recent developments in remote sensing of SWE using InSAR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7808, 2025.

EGU25-12736 | PICO | HS6.3

Potential of using satellite derived snow products for estimating snow aerodynamic roughness length and evaposublimation across spatio-temporal scales 

Katharina Scheidt, Rafael Pimentel, Carlo Marin, María José Polo, and Claudia Notarnicola

Evaposublimation of snow plays an important role in the energy balance of snow, particularly in low- and mid-latitude mountain regions where this process can contribute substantially to overall snow mass partitioning. The evaposublimated snow, driven by the exchange of turbulent latent heat fluxes between the snow surface and the atmosphere, have significant implications for water resources management, as they reduce the meltwater released to the soil and rivers.  

A key parameter in quantifying turbulent heat fluxes is the aerodynamic roughness length, which represents the height above the surface where the horizontal wind speed drops to zero. This parameter is intrinsically linked to the surface roughness of snow, which is highly dynamic and evolves with the snowpack's physical state. As the snow transforms, its surface characteristics, and consequently its aerodynamic roughness length, can vary substantially, influencing the magnitude of turbulent flux exchanges. Modeling turbulent latent heat fluxes however often suffers from limited knowledge of spatio-temporal evolution of aerodynamic roughness length, leading to significant uncertainty in evaposublimation rate estimates.

Remote sensing offers a valuable tool to monitor snow properties across spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products related to the current state of snow such as snow cover fraction, albedo, snow grain size, and land surface temperature in combination with in-situ meteorological measurements, to predict aerodynamic roughness lengths of snow, and consequently turbulent latent heat fluxes in the European Alps on a spatio-temporal scale using machine learning regression models. Validation is conducted using roughness lengths and turbulent latent heat flux data obtained from three FLUXNET eddy-covariance stations. This approach assesses the feasibility of generalizing predictions of evaposublimation from the ground across different locations and temporal scales contributing to a better understanding of its implications for snowpack dynamics and water resource management.

 

How to cite: Scheidt, K., Pimentel, R., Marin, C., Polo, M. J., and Notarnicola, C.: Potential of using satellite derived snow products for estimating snow aerodynamic roughness length and evaposublimation across spatio-temporal scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12736, 2025.

EGU25-14506 | ECS | PICO | HS6.3

Estimation of local scale snow depth and snow water equivalent over a winter period in northern Finland with an object-based ensemble machine learning approach 

David Brodylo, Lauren Bosche, Thomas Douglas, Ryan Busby, Elias Deeb, and Juha Lemmetyinen

Seasonal snow occurs in high latitude and altitude regions of the globe, and throughout the winter and post-winter period can rapidly alter the makeup of these regions. Commonly studied snow features include snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow density. These features can be measured on the ground while also capable of being remotely sensed with airborne and spaceborne instruments. Individually both approaches can be utilized to assess these snow features. However, field-based techniques tend to be limited to smaller spatial scales while remotely sensed methods tend to excel at larger spatial scales. At local scales (10 km2) a hybrid technique can be employed to better estimate such snow features. This can be realized by utilizing machine learning modeling to upscale field measurements with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. We performed this over a 10 km2 area in Sodankylä, Finland by combining repeat field snow depth and SWE data with 2-meter resolution WorldView-2 (WV-2) and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over a winter period between the middle of December 2022 to the end of April 2023. Snow depth field measurements were upscaled to a local spatial scale with an object-based machine learning approach before harnessing the estimated snow depth products to permit an enhanced estimation of SWE to the same local scale from more limited field measurements. Snow density was then determined from the predicted snow depth and SWE. A weighted ensemble approach of multiple machine learning models proved to be most effective compared to the chosen base models of Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The fluctuating outputs from these features over the winter period were found to strongly connect to dry and wet peatbogs and with forests containing carbon and mineral surface soils.

How to cite: Brodylo, D., Bosche, L., Douglas, T., Busby, R., Deeb, E., and Lemmetyinen, J.: Estimation of local scale snow depth and snow water equivalent over a winter period in northern Finland with an object-based ensemble machine learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14506, 2025.

Snow cover extent and related variables are key elements to understand many processes in mountain regions. To constantly monitor and assess the changes in these areas, consistent and accurate data sets are of utmost importance. In this perspective, MODIS sensors offer an unprecedented possibility in terms of time availability from 2000 to present and ground resolution (500 m) (Bormann et al., 2018).

This work presents a unique time series of snow cover extent and snow phenology (snow cover duration-SCD, first snow day-FSD, and last snow day-LSD) for the period 2000-2024 with a ground resolution of 500 m (Notarnicola, 2024). The main input data is the MODIS product, MOD10A1.061, from which the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) layer was considered and converted to SCF by exploiting the Salomonson and Appel formulation (2004). The snow phenology parameters (SCD, FSD, LSD) were derived from MOD10A1.061 daily maps. The SCD values were obtained from daily snow cover maps by exploiting an auto-regressive approach to reduce the gaps due to cloudiness (Dietz et al., 2012). In this time series, FSD and LSD represent the first and the last date in the hydrological year with snow presence. The whole dataset is available here: https://zenodo.org/records/11181638

Preliminary analysis of the whole datasets indicate that reduction in snow cover duration can reach up to 55 days while the snow cover extent declines up to 13%. These results were obtained on regions showing changes with significance level at 5% in the Mann-Kendall statistics. Interestingly there are some areas in eastern Russia which show a snow cover extent increase up to 15% while snow cover duration indicates an increase as well but not significant in the adopted statistics.  When considering FSD and LSD variables, both mainly indicates a shortening of the snow season with an average of 15 days for both delayed start of the season and anticipated end of the season. These preliminary results on the trends in the period 2000-2024 provide confirmation of behaviour found in the shorter period 2000-2018 (Notarnicola, 2020), highlighting a general decline for main snow variables but as well with a high variability among the different investigated regions.

References

Bormann, K. J., Brown, R. D., Derksen, C., Painter, T. H. Estimating snow-cover trends from space. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 924–928, 2018.

Dietz, A.J., Wohner C., Kuenzer, C. European Snow Cover Characteristics between 2000 and 2011 Derived from Improved MODIS Daily Snow Cover Products. Remote Sens. 4, 2432-2454, 2012.

Notarnicola, C., Hotspots of snow cover changes in global mountain regions over 2000-2018. Rem. Sen. Environ. 243, 111781, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111781.

Notarnicola, C. Snow cover phenology dataset over global mountain regions from 2000 to 2023,Data in Brief, Volume 56, 2024, 110860, ISSN 2352-3409, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2024.110860.

Salomonson, V.V., Appel, I. Estimating the fractional snow covering using the normalized difference snow index. Remote Sens Environ 89, 351-360, 2004.

How to cite: Notarnicola, C.: Assessing snow cover changes in global mountain regions by exploiting MODIS time series from 2000 to 2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14994, 2025.

EGU25-21944 | ECS | PICO | HS6.3

Assessing Liquid Water Content in a Seasonal Snowpack: A Comparative Analysis of Satellite Observations and the HyS Model 

Sepehr Norouzi, Greta Cazzaniga, Ali Nadir Arslan, and Carlo De Michele

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations in the liquid water content (LWC) of alpine snowpacks is crucial for assessing short-term water availability, which influences hazards such as wet snow avalanches and river floods. Accurate monitoring and forecasting of snow wetness play a vital role in applications ranging from avalanche risk assessment to hydropower management and flood prediction, particularly when integrated with hydrological models.

Remote sensing provides valuable observations of snowpack properties, with Sentinel-1 satellites offering C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data at high spatial and temporal resolutions, enabling the detection of wet snow. Meanwhile, snow models like HyS (De Michele et al. 2013) can simulate the liquid water content of the snowpack.

This study focuses on evaluating the discrepancies between satellite-derived wet-snow products and modeled LWC estimates. Specifically, we compare (1) Sentinel-1-based wet-snow retrievals and (2) HyS model simulations. The analysis is conducted for the Mallero basin, a mid-sized alpine watershed where snowmelt and glacier ablation significantly impact seasonal river discharge, particularly in spring and summer.

The results indicate a strong overall agreement between Sentinel-1 data and HyS model outputs. Short periods of divergence between the two datasets are further analyzed to investigate potential physical processes that may not be fully captured by the model.

How to cite: Norouzi, S., Cazzaniga, G., Arslan, A. N., and De Michele, C.: Assessing Liquid Water Content in a Seasonal Snowpack: A Comparative Analysis of Satellite Observations and the HyS Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21944, 2025.

EGU25-967 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

 Satellite-based Framework for River Discharge Estimation: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Altimetry Data  

Ceren Y. Tural, Koray K. Yilmaz, and Angelica Tarpanelli

Rivers are a critical component of the global water cycle, serving as dynamic pathways for freshwater flow and storage. However, global discharge data is limited, particularly in regions with sparse in-situ measurements. This study introduces a hybrid modeling framework that leverages advanced satellite observations combined with machine learning and deep learning algorithms to estimate river discharge.The framework combines Sentinel-2 optical imagery, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and satellite altimetry data from Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6 leveraging their complementary strengths. The input variables for the model include total water surface area and water indices derived from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, while satellite altimetry provides water level time series. Sentinel-1 effectively compensates for the limitations of optical sensors under cloudy conditions. Moreover, satellite altimetry data are particularly evaluable in areas where lateral water expansion is constrained by topography and SAR or optical are unable to detect variations. The hybrid model, combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Random Forest Regression (RFR), estimates river discharge with satellite-derived measurements. In effort to account for varying river morphologies, reach boundaries and river centerlines from the SWOT River Database (SWORD) are incorporated, ensuring robust adaptability to diverse conditions.The model is calibrated and validated against in-situ measurements on corresponding dates, using in-situ discharge data from the Mississippi River (USA), Kizilirmak River (Türkiye), and Po River (Italy). Designed to achieve high accuracy across diverse climatic and topographical settings, the proposed framework offers a scalable solution for estimating river discharge. By integrating satellite observations with a hybrid methodology, this approach has significant potential for enhancing global hydrological assessments. 

How to cite: Tural, C. Y., Yilmaz, K. K., and Tarpanelli, A.:  Satellite-based Framework for River Discharge Estimation: A Hybrid Approach Integrating Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Altimetry Data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-967, 2025.

EGU25-1200 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Enhanced Water Level Monitoring for Small and Complex Inland Water Bodies Using Optical and SAR Retrievals 

Kwanghee Han, Seokhyeon Kim, Rajeshwar Mehrotra, and Ashish Sharma

Monitoring water levels in lakes and reservoirs forms a critical component of sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions where direct measurements are costly, time consuming or impossible. Traditionally, ground-based sensors are used as the primary means of water level observation. In recent past, remote sensing has emerged as a vital alternative for areas that are inaccessible, have sparse monitoring infrastructure or located in the transboundary regions. However, recent studies have highlighted limitations in temporal resolution required for immediate responses to water-related conflicts. We present here a novel methodology for enhancing the temporal resolution of water level time series derived from altimetry satellites by integrating data from other satellite types, such as optical (Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2) and SAR (Sentinel-1), particularly for small and complex inland water bodies. Our approach leverages DEM-driven water masks with 1-meter intervals to systematically calculate reflectance values at various elevation levels, identifying water levels based on the most significant reflectance differences. Unlike static methods with fixed thresholds, our methodology dynamically adjusts thresholds according to regional and temporal variations, ensuring greater accuracy and adaptability. To mitigate the limitations of optical data, such as cloud coverage during the wet season, we integrated SAR data as a further enhancement to the developed approach. We tested this methodology on four reservoirs in South Korea—Chungju, Andong, Daecheong, and Juam—representing diverse hydrological characteristics. The results demonstrated significant improvements in the accuracy of water level estimation, even for highly variable and small water bodies. Further, the proposed method shows robustness across multiple satellite datasets while effectively addressing data gaps, providing a scalable and globally applicable framework for advancing water level monitoring.  The approach underscores its potential to enhance hydrological assessment and water management, particularly in under-monitored regions.

How to cite: Han, K., Kim, S., Mehrotra, R., and Sharma, A.: Enhanced Water Level Monitoring for Small and Complex Inland Water Bodies Using Optical and SAR Retrievals, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1200, 2025.

EGU25-2834 | Orals | HS6.4

Introducing New Radar Altimetry Products from Sentinel-3 for Inland Water Monitoring 

Carlos Yanez, Florian Wery, Beatriz Calmettes, and François Boy

Remote sensing techniques are crucial for a continuous and comprehensive monitoring of inland waters. In particular, recent advances in satellite radar altimetry have allowed the observation of an increasing number of small and medium-sized lakes and reservoirs, even in complex topographies. The advent of nadir radar altimeters operating in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mode has significantly improved the resolution of observations in the along-track direction, from several kilometers in conventional pulse-limited altimeters to hundreds of meters in close-burst altimeters when applying unfocused SAR (UFSAR) processing, as is the case in the Sentinel-3 satellite constellation.

Inversion methods for estimating geophysical parameters, such as Lake Water Level (LWL), from the backscattered altimetry signal are commonly called retrackers. These retrackers can be empirical, such as the widely used OCOG method or physics-based, i.e.  a background waveform model is derived from the theoretical knowledge of the microwave scattering process and then fitted to the backscattered signal received on-board. Several retrackers of the second type have been developed for processing conventional radar observations, such as the Brown-type models, and also for UFSAR observations in the case, for example, of the SAMOSA model. However, one of the limitations of physics-based retrackers concerns the assumption that the radar footprint is completely covered by water, as is the case for the ocean. This assumption, which applies to large lakes, starts to degrade the accuracy of the retrieved geophysical parameters when monitoring smaller water bodies. For this reason, a retracker based on numerical simulations tailored to UFSAR observations was proposed for inland waters [1]. This latter model has the advantage of taking into account a priori knowledge of the lake contour (for example, the Prior Lake Database [2]), and, thus, only the in-water areas of the radar footprint contribute to the simulated waveform. A preliminary assessment of the performance of this retracker solution indicated a LWL accuracy better than 10 cm in most of the lakes [3].

Considerable effort has been put into making that retracker robust enough to generate demonstration altimetry products for the hydrological community. These Level-2 products, expected to be available in the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem in early 2025, cover the entire Sentinel-3 mission time period (both A and B satellites) and provide information on more than 1200 lakes worldwide. This work will present the physical retracker basis and methodology, as well as the content and format of these new radar altimetry products, ready for use by scientific users. Finally, an extensive comparison with in-situ data will be performed to characterize the expected accuracy, with a special focus on time series for some specific lakes.

 

[1] Boy, F., et al., 2021. Improving Sentinel-3 SAR mode processing over lake using numerical simulations. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 60, 1-18.

[2] Wang, J., et al., 2023. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission (SWOT) Prior Lake Database (PLD): Lake mask and operational auxiliaries. Authorea Preprints.

[3] Yanez, C., et al., 2023. Performance Assessment of Lake Water Level Estimation from Sentinel-3 SAR Data over 1000 Lakes and Reservoirs Worldwide. 2023 IEEE IGARSS, 2870-2873.

How to cite: Yanez, C., Wery, F., Calmettes, B., and Boy, F.: Introducing New Radar Altimetry Products from Sentinel-3 for Inland Water Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2834, 2025.

EGU25-4299 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Estimation of water storage changes in a tropical lake-floodplain system through remote sensing 

Thijs de Klein, Victor Bense, and Syed Mustafa

Tropical lowland lake-floodplain systems are increasingly threatened by climate change effects and other human-induced pressures. Determining the effect of these pressures on the water balance is challenging because of a lack of hydrological monitoring data, which impedes water management decisions. A collection of optical remote sensing and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) scenes is used in combination with supervised classification algorithms and topographical data to derive lake volumes for the period 1984–2023, which are analyzed for trends and correlation with satellite-derived climate data. Although lake volumes show strong interannual variability, no significant historical trend is identified. A precipitation response time of approximately two months is observed, suggesting a considerable contribution of groundwater to the lake’s water balance. Minimum lake volumes found for the period 2014–2017 coincide with a prolonged period of below-average precipitation, indicating the effect of decreased groundwater recharge. Dry season lake volumes show weak correlation with cumulative precipitation in comparison to rainy season lake volumes, further indicating the importance of groundwater inflow for the dry season water balance. Results suggest that climate change effects and anthropogenic activities may have little short-term impact on the lake’s dry season volume, while altering groundwater recharge may have more significant long-term effects.

How to cite: de Klein, T., Bense, V., and Mustafa, S.: Estimation of water storage changes in a tropical lake-floodplain system through remote sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4299, 2025.

Satellite altimetry data has become essential for studying the dynamics of water bodies, especially in regions with limited or inaccessible data. Traditional low-resolution mode (LRM) satellites’ accuracy cannot be guaranteed when it comes to assessing water levels in small- (< 200 m in width) and medium-sized (200–800 m in width) rivers. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) altimeters, exemplified by Sentinel-3 A, have shown great potential for inland water altimetry. Nevertheless, developing algorithms to retrack the raw data remains an essential requirement in this context. This is attributed to the width of small-sized rivers, which is often narrower than the along-track resolution of both LRM and SAR altimeters. In addition, new altimeters may have long revisit cycles and different spatial coverage and cannot yield historical data necessary in some situations.
To address these challenges, this study proposed a conditional threshold retracker (CTR). The CTR algorithm is well-designed and facilitates accurate water level monitoring. Moreover, we proposed an enhanced footprint filter (EFF), thus significantly bolstering the number of available cycles. Our findings demonstrate that the developed method substantially enhances the temporal and spatial resolution of both LRM and SAR altimetry satellites during water level monitoring in rivers of different climate types. The width of the thirteen selected rivers is on the order of 85–630 m. The CTR significantly improved the water level monitoring accuracy by 68 %– 78 %. Furthermore, the EFF increased the number of water level cycles by approximately 49 %–68 %. These findings have practical implications for obtaining accurate water level data, estimating river discharge and improving hydraulic model calibration.

How to cite: Hu, X.: Improving water level monitoring in small to medium-sized rivers: An enhanced footprint filter-based conditional threshold retracker approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4658, 2025.

Satellite nadir altimetry has been a powerful technique for understanding oceans and seas over the past few decades. However, over rivers and small inland water bodies it produces noisy observations, which can result in gaps or erroneous measurements in water level time series. In this study, we aim to identify and correct anomalous measurements through reprocessing at the Level 1B (L1B) stage of the satellite altimetry processing chain.

To this end, we first detect abnormal waveforms that lead to anomalous water level measurements by analyzing various parameters related to the satellite's altimeter like AGC parameter and tracker range, and also waveform shape features. These waveform features include the number and location of peaks, noise level, kurtosis, centre of gravity, and peakiness. Abnormal waveforms are identified through an analysis of the distribution of these features.

While previous studies focused solely on L2 measurements to retrack multi-peak and noisy waveforms, we propose a robust strategy to regenerate abnormal waveforms within the L1B SAR processing chain by eliminating unwanted backscattered power. This approach incorporates the Fully-Focused Synthetic Aperture Radar technique into the L1B processing chain, dividing the illumination time into smaller stacks comprising multiple beam looks.

Due to factors such as antenna side lobe gain, wide antenna footprints, and environmental unevenness, some beam looks may exhibit undesired patterns. Our proposed approach addresses this issue by comparing the power of individual stacks with an analytically-derived reference waveform and assigning weights to each stack based on their similarity to the reference waveform. This reduces the impact of unwanted components in the final waveform and enables the regeneration of detected abnormal waveforms for inland waters.

We applied the proposed method to Sentinel-3A, Sentinel-3B, and Sentinel-6MF measurements over 6 lakes and reservoirs of various sizes and validated the results against in-situ data. The validation demonstrates that the water height time series obtained from regenerated waveforms match significantly better with in-situ measurements. Specifically, the accuracy of the water level time series, measured in terms of RMSE, improved by around 60% for the selected case studies after applying retracking on newly generated waveforms.

How to cite: Sneeuw, N., Khalili, S., Tourian, M. J., Elmi, O., Engels, J., and Sörgel, U.: Recovering noisy measurements over inland water bodies by regenerating L1B SAR altimetry waveforms using a segment-weighted Fully-Focused - Synthetic Aperture Radar (swFF-SAR) processing scheme, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5134, 2025.

EGU25-6403 | Orals | HS6.4

Operational forecasting model of the prevention and accumulation river basin Modrac 

Omer Kovčić, Božidar Deduš, Draženka Kvesić, Ratko Ramuščak, and Emina Jahić

The Modrac Reservoir is a reservoir located mostly in the municipality of Lukavac, although it also touches the outskirts of the cities of Tuzla and Živinica. The Modrac Dam was built in 1964 on the Spreča River, which simultaneously formed the reservoir of the same name, with the main purpose of securing the necessary quantities of water for production processes of industrial capacities in the area of ​​the municipalities of Lukavac and Tuzla.

Multi-purpose reservoir Modrac is a key water management facility of special importance for the life of the population, industry and tourism of the Tuzla Canton and as such for the entire Tuzla Canton but also BiH represents an inestimable value that requires special treatment, permanent investment and quality maintenance and management. By applying modern technologies used for operation and management of multi-purpose reservoirs and associated hydroelectric power plants, it is possible today to manage such water management systems in the most efficient way, to the benefit of all participating factors. Along with water supply and tourism, one of the key purposes and functions of the Modrac reservoir is flood protection in downstream areas.

This paper will present an operational prognostic local model of the Spreča River, which includes the Spreča River basin from its source to the Karanovac hydrological station. The developed local hydrological prognostic model of the river Spreča was created with a total of 6 sub-basins, the total size of the modeled basin is about 1,900 km2.

In the subject hydrodynamic model, a total of more than 180 km of watercourses were modeled as 13 river sections, 2 Q2D branches and 8 connecting channels within the Q2D sections. The geometry of the modeled sections is defined with approximately 230 cross-sections.

The subject paper will present the calibration of the hydrological and hydrodynamic model of the Spreča River for the associated catchment up to HS Karanovac, for water levels and flows, and was carried out for the period 2020-2023. Based on the prognostic model, a prognostic system for predicting floods in real time was created, which will also be presented in this paper.

The local operating system of the Spreča River, as well as other systems managed by the Agency for the Sava River Water Area, are compatible with the prognostic system developed in Croatia, which enables a simple exchange of input data.   

Keywords: Modrac reservoir, Spreča river, hydrological-hydrodynamic model, prognostic model, operational system, flood forecasting

How to cite: Kovčić, O., Deduš, B., Kvesić, D., Ramuščak, R., and Jahić, E.: Operational forecasting model of the prevention and accumulation river basin Modrac, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6403, 2025.

EGU25-6660 | Orals | HS6.4

Water budget closure assessment of 18 various basins combining GRACE and altimetry data 

Julien Lefebve, Sylvain Biancamaria, Alejandro Blazquez, Simon Munier, and Elena Zakharova

The water balance equation describes the exchange of water mass between land, ocean and atmosphere. Being able to close the water balance gives confidence in the ability to model and/or observe spatio-temporal variations in the water cycle and its components. At basin scale, the water balance equation (DTWS = P - ET - Q) compares derived total water storage (DTWS) with precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff (Q). Many studies compare GRACE-based DWTS observations with P and ET datasets, and Q from Land Surface Model (LSM), due to the lack of in situ discharge observations. For some basins, human activities, glacier, reservoir and lake impact on the water cycle is not or poorly modeled by the LSM. In this case, the water budget may close due to compensation errors, for example between Q and ET.

In this study, we propose to evaluate the consistency of budget closure with Q computed from satellite altimetry data, which might have better accuracy than discharge from LSM. We will use the altimetry-based discharge products from the ESA CCI river discharge project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/river-discharge/), recently available. DTWS is evaluated from the CNES GRACE-GRACEFO L3 dataset. This dataset is an ensemble of 120 different solutions combining the state-of-the-art in terms of GRACE L2 data and corrections. The spread within the ensemble aims to cover the uncertainty in DTWS estimates. The dataset has a monthly resolution of 1 degree.

In order to evaluate the best combination of datasets to close the water balance, we will use more than 15 precipitation datasets using the FROGS database (https://frogs.ipsl.fr/) and more than 8 evapotranspiration datasets (GLDAS, ERA5-Land, GLEAM, SynthesizedET, SSEBop, MOD16, BESS V2, FLUXCOM). This ensemble-based approach will also enable to assess the dispersion of these precipitation and evaporation data for each basin. We evaluate the budget closure using different metrics (NSE, KGE, RMSD etc…) at 18 basins of different climate, latitude and size over 2002 to 2019.

Finally, we will compare the 18 water budget closures with those obtained with discharge computed from LSM, like GLDAS or ISBA/CTRIP, to assess the benefits of using altimeter-based discharge for the water budget closure.

How to cite: Lefebve, J., Biancamaria, S., Blazquez, A., Munier, S., and Zakharova, E.: Water budget closure assessment of 18 various basins combining GRACE and altimetry data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6660, 2025.

EGU25-7377 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Toward a global scale runoff estimation through satellite observations: the STREAM model  

Francesco Leopardi, Luca Brocca, Carla Saltalippi, Jacopo Dari, Karina Nielsen, Peyman Saemian, Nico Sneeuw, Mohammad Tourian, Marco Restano, Jérôme Benveniste, and Stefania Camici

Climate change is significantly transforming familiar environments and affecting daily life. In this context, continuous monitoring of river discharge in space and time is crucial for planning human activities related to water use, preventing or mitigating losses due to extreme flood events, and reducing the effects of water scarcity.  

Conventional in-situ monitoring stations have limitations such as low spatial density, incomplete time coverage and delays in data availability. These challenges hinder continuous spatio-temporal monitoring of river discharge. In response, researchers and space agencies have developed innovative satellite-based approaches to estimate runoff and river discharge using only satellite observations. In this perspective, the European Space Agency (ESA) has supported the STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping) and STREAM-NEXT projects, which integrate satellite data on precipitation, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage anomalies, altimetric water levels, and snow cover into a simplified hydrological model, STREAM, to provide long-term independent global-scale gridded runoff and river discharge time series. 

The STREAM model has been applied to over 40 river basins globally, including some of the largest such as the Mississippi-Missouri, Amazon, Danube, Murray-Darling, and Niger. It has demonstrated a strong capability to replicate observed river discharge even in heavily human-impacted basins where flow is regulated by dams and reservoirs. In addition, the model has shown its efficiency in simulating runoff and river discharge in Arctic basins (e.g. Lena, Mackenzie, Ob, Yenisey, and Yukon) where flows are controlled by glacier melt, and in small basins where the spatial resolution is still too coarse to describe the characteristics of the basins accurately.  

The positive results obtained have paved the way for regionalizing the parameters of the STREAM model to make it applicable on a global scale. Through the calibration of the STREAM model across the 40 pilot catchments, it was possible to obtain a large set of parameters that were linked, through specific relationships, to various features including climate, soil characteristics, vegetation and topographic attributes. This approach yielded regionalized STREAM parameters. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of the STREAM runoff and river discharge estimates, derived from regionalized parameters, across a diverse range of basins. To this end, a comparative analysis will be conducted between observed and simulated river discharge, as well as between simulated and modeled land surface runoff estimates.  

This work aims to highlight how the use of readily available data, analyzed using a conceptual regionalized hydrological model, can improve the estimation of river discharge and the development of runoff maps, even in basins where complex interactions between natural processes and human activities prevail. 

How to cite: Leopardi, F., Brocca, L., Saltalippi, C., Dari, J., Nielsen, K., Saemian, P., Sneeuw, N., Tourian, M., Restano, M., Benveniste, J., and Camici, S.: Toward a global scale runoff estimation through satellite observations: the STREAM model , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7377, 2025.

EGU25-7758 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Stage-discharge rating curves using satellite radar altimetry 

Liguang Jiang and Yanan Zhao

River discharge is a fundamental quantity that is required to improve our understanding of the hydrological cycle and to inform flood, drought, and water resources management (Gerten et al., 2008; Rajsekhar and Gorelick, 2017; Rao et al., 2020). Discharge monitoring plays a vital role in detecting climatic and environmental change because discharge is an integrated variable reflecting the coevolution of many processes within a basin (Hansford et al., 2020). However, ground-based measurements of discharge are often expensive and not available for many rivers globally. Therefore, spaceborne measurements are pursued as alternatives. 

Recent studies have proposed various methods based on hydraulic equations to estimate discharge from multiple remotely sensed variables, such as water surface elevation (WSE), river width, and slope (Durand et al., 2016). However, such methods generally demand instantaneous observations of several variables. Some other methods rely on one single variable, such as width, WSE, or raw signal reflectance, provided that in-situ discharge data are available to build empirical relationships. 

One widely used approach involves stage-discharge rating curves. Like ground-based methods, these curves estimate discharge by relating river stage (water level or WSE) measured by altimetry to discharge values previously recorded at gauging stations. This approach is straightforward to implement. This study leverages the power of Sentinel-3 altimetry to augment discharge estimates at the global scale. 

We aim to achieve this through two key objectives:

  • Developing a global network of rating curves: We will create a comprehensive dataset of stage-discharge rating curves using Sentinel-3 altimetry data.
  • Investigating key influencing factors: We will investigate how river characteristics impact the reliability of these curves. Understanding these factors is crucial for optimizing their effectiveness.

How to cite: Jiang, L. and Zhao, Y.: Stage-discharge rating curves using satellite radar altimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7758, 2025.

EGU25-8247 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

SAEM: Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements 

Peyman Saemian, Omid Elmi, Molly Stroud, Ryan Riggs, Benjamin M. Kitambo, Fabrice Papa, George H. Allen, and Mohammad J. Tourian

Accurate river discharge monitoring is essential for understanding hydrological processes, yet the availability of in situ measurements is increasingly limited due to a declining number of operational gauges and temporal gaps in gauge records. Satellite altimetry offers a robust alternative to address these limitations. Here, we introduce the Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of the global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements (SAEM) dataset, which integrates data from multiple satellite altimetry missions to estimate river discharge and enhance global hydrological monitoring networks. Our analysis evaluated 47,000 discharge gauges and successfully derived height-based discharge estimates for 8,730 gauges, expanding the coverage of current remote sensing datasets by a factor of three. These gauges collectively represent approximately 88% of the globally gauged discharge volume. The SAEM dataset achieves a median Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.48, demonstrating superior performance compared to existing global datasets.

In addition to discharge time series, SAEM offers three supplementary products: (1) a catalog of Virtual Stations (VSs) with metadata, including geographic coordinates, altimetry mission details, distances to discharge gauges, and quality flags; (2) for VSs with quality-controlled discharges, we provide IDs from L3 databases such as Hydroweb.Next (formerly Hydroweb), the Database of Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters (DAHITI), the Global River Radar Altimeter Time Series (GRRATS), and HydroSat, and for VSs without corresponding time series in these L3 products, we have generated water level time series (SAEM WL) as an additional product; (3) rating curves that map water levels to discharge using the Nonparametric Stochastic Quantile Mapping Function approach. The SAEM dataset can enhance hydrological research, support water resource management, and allow addressing complex water-related challenges in the context of a changing climate.

How to cite: Saemian, P., Elmi, O., Stroud, M., Riggs, R., Kitambo, B. M., Papa, F., Allen, G. H., and Tourian, M. J.: SAEM: Satellite Altimetry-based Extension of global-scale in situ river discharge Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8247, 2025.

EGU25-8312 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4 | Highlight

TransFuse: Advancing Frequent Flood Monitoring using Vision Transformers and Earth Observation 

Antara Dasgupta, Paul Christian Hosch, Rakesh Sahu, and Björn Waske

The increasing availability of Earth Observation (EO) satellites equipped with active microwave sensors suitable for flood mapping has improved flood monitoring capabilities. However, current observation frequencies still fall short of adequately characterizing inundation dynamics, particularly during critical moments such as the flood peak or maximum inundation extent. This limitation represents a significant research challenge in flood remote sensing. Advances in multimodal satellite hydrology datasets, coupled with the deep learning (DL) revolution, offer new opportunities to address the frequency gap in flood observations. TransFuse presents a scalable data fusion framework that combines DL with EO data to achieve daily, high-resolution flood inundation mapping. This proof-of-concept study highlights the potential of Vision Transformers (ViT) to predict flood inundation at the spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 (S1) imagery. The approach integrates time series data from coarse but temporally frequent datasets, such as soil moisture and precipitation from NASA’s SMAP and GPM missions, with static predictors like topography and land use. A ViT model was trained using flood maps derived from S1 imagery processed by a Random Forest Classifier, allowing the prediction of high-resolution flood inundation. Additionally, a classical UNET convolutional neural network (CNN) was used as a benchmark to compare model performance. Two case studies were used to evaluate this methodology: the December 2019 flood event in southwest France at the confluence of the Adour and Luy rivers, and the Christmas floods of 2023 on Germany’s Hase River. Predicted high-resolution flood maps were validated against independent flood masks derived from S1 images outside the training dataset. Results demonstrate that both ViT and CNN-UNET models effectively generalize the hydrological and hydraulic relationships that drive flood inundation, even in areas with complex topographies. Notably, the ViT model outperformed the CNN, achieving approximately 20% higher accuracy in both case studies. Further testing in diverse catchments with varying land-use, hydrology, and elevation profiles is recommended to assess model sensitivity under differing conditions. The proposed methodology can revolutionize flood monitoring by enabling daily observation of spatial inundation dynamics. This capability could support the development of improved parametric hazard re/insurance products, helping to address the flood protection gap faced by vulnerable populations worldwide.

How to cite: Dasgupta, A., Hosch, P. C., Sahu, R., and Waske, B.: TransFuse: Advancing Frequent Flood Monitoring using Vision Transformers and Earth Observation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8312, 2025.

In recent years, advancements in radar altimetry, particularly the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) approach, have revealed fine-scale features over coastal ocean and inland waters. SWOT mission has offered unprecedented details and accuracy in observing the nuance of water surface gradient since its launch at the end of 2022. It provides a great opportunity to monitor the ungauged rivers and waterbodies timely and repeatedly. This study aims to utilize SWOT L2 Lake and Pixel Cloud products to monitor multiple lakes, ponds, and reservoirs in Taiwan. In our fieldwork consisting of 14 small ponds and 12 major reservoirs, it has been verified that the surface height and its temporal changes could be observed by SWOT at an accuracy of submeter level during cycles 3-26. After our reprocessing by clustering of pixel clouds within the predefined water masks, the accuracy can be further improved to <10 cm level. It is concluded that SWOT offers an alternative view of hydrological parameters, which can play a critical role in future water resources management.

How to cite: Tseng, K.-H.: Monitoring Surface Water Bodies in Taiwan by SWOT Lake And Pixel Cloud Products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8839, 2025.

EGU25-9406 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Surface water expansion due to increasing water demand on theLoess Plateau 

Yao Liu and Xianhong Xie

Land surface water bodies are important to ensure water security for agricultural, industrial, domestic, and environmental sectors. Especially in dryland areas, such as the Loess Plateau in China, changes in land surface water bodies as a response to climate change and human activities have been the subject of great concern. Many dams and reservoirs have been constructed on the Loess Plateau to combat serious soil erosion and water resource shortages. These projects are widely recognized as an effective measure to enhance soil conservation, but little is known about the dynamics of surface water bodies. In this study, we employ a long-term satellite water product to detect the spatial-temporal variability in surface water at the regional scale on the Loess Plateau and identify the potential cause of climate change and human activities. The results show that the area of permanent water has increased by approximately 800 km2 during the past two decades. Surface water expansion is primarily associated with small water bodies (< 1 km2), as their number has roughly doubled, while the number and area of large water bodies have remained stable. We found that surface water expansion has little correlation with precipitation variation but is highly correlated with water withdrawal for agricultural, industrial, and other sectors. Thus, the surface water expansion on the Loess Plateau is primarily contributed by hydraulic project construction as a response to the increasing water demand. The above findings imply the positive role of hydraulic projects, but it is essential to note that the continuous expansion of surface water might not be sustainable because of constraints from natural conditions.

How to cite: Liu, Y. and Xie, X.: Surface water expansion due to increasing water demand on theLoess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9406, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9406, 2025.

EGU25-10012 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.4

Leveraging SWOT data to analyze river hydrodynamic and coastal interactions during extreme events: A case study of the Po river 

Farid Kurdnezhad, Alessio Domeneghetti, and Angelica Tarpanelli

The interaction between rivers and coastal water bodies is critical to hydrological and ecological systems, particularly under the accelerating impacts of climate change. This study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Po river and its interactions with the Adriatic Sea during extreme events such as backwater effects during floods and saline intrusion during droughts. Using high-resolution data from Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, integrated with in situ measurements, detailed LiDAR datasets, and a hybrid 1D-2D modeling approach in HEC-RAS, the research advances understanding of river-coast dynamics and their responses to climate-induced pressures.

The SWOT satellite, launched in December 2022, employs cutting-edge Ka-band Radar Interferometry (KaRIn) technology. The mission provides a variety of hydrological products for the surface water dynamics, with a revisit cycle of 21 days. For the inland rivers, the products include high-accuracy observations of water surface elevation, width, and slope, over a 120 km swath, allowing for improved rating curves and flow duration analysis. Stretching over 650 kilometers and flowing through eight Italian regions, the Po river is a lifeline for the northern region.

HEC-RAS is used to simulate riverine and floodplain dynamics, combining the computational efficiency of 1D modeling for long river reaches with the spatial detail of 2D modeling in areas with complex flow patterns, such as floodplains and river-coast interfaces. LiDAR-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) provide the foundation for defining cross-sectional profiles and updating hydraulic geometry, enabling precise representation of terrain and channel morphology.

The research follows a multi-phase methodology: SWOT data are processed to derive water surface elevations and extents, validated using in situ measurements and compared with HEC-RAS simulations. The study emphasizes extreme conditions, quantifying backwater effects during high flows and the severity of saline intrusion under low-flow scenarios. The integration of SWOT data with the HEC-RAS model allows for a detailed analysis of hydrodynamic processes, supporting the development of risk prediction models and improving water resource management strategies.

How to cite: Kurdnezhad, F., Domeneghetti, A., and Tarpanelli, A.: Leveraging SWOT data to analyze river hydrodynamic and coastal interactions during extreme events: A case study of the Po river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10012, 2025.

EGU25-11436 | Orals | HS6.4

The River Discharge Climate Change Initiative precursor project 

Sylvain Biancamaria and Laetitia Gal and the CCI River Discharge

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) identifies river discharge as an Essential Climate Variable (ECV), critical for understanding climate dynamics and managing water resources (GCOS, 2022). However, no satellite instrument currently exists to directly measure river discharge, which must instead be estimated indirectly. The ESA River Discharge Climate Change Initiative (CCI) precursor project (https://climate.esa.int/en/projects/river-discharge/) addresses this challenge by developing innovative methodologies based on satellite remote sensing data.

Four complementary approaches are being explored: (1) the use of long-term satellite radar altimeter time series of water surface elevations, combined with rating curves to estimate discharge; (2) The use of satellite imagery data to obtain river width, combined with rating curves to estimate discharge; (3) multispectral sensor data in the near-infrared (NIR) band, used to analyze river flow variability through the reflectance ratio between wet and dry pixels; and (4) a hybrid approach combining these two techniques. Radar altimeters offer the advantage of weather-independent measurements, while multispectral sensors provide higher temporal resolution but are limited by cloud cover.

This proof-of-concept study focuses on 54 locations across 18 river basins, spanning 2002–2022. The sites represent a variety of climatic zones, drainage areas (from 50,000 km² to the Amazon basin), levels of human activity, and availability of in situ data. The project showcases the potential for satellite-based global river discharge estimation, validated through comparisons with on-the-ground measurements.

This presentation will outline the methodologies employed, the computed discharge time series along with their validation during the first Phase of this precursor project (2023-2024), the objectives for the second phase, which has just started, and the progress achieved.

How to cite: Biancamaria, S. and Gal, L. and the CCI River Discharge: The River Discharge Climate Change Initiative precursor project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11436, 2025.

EGU25-11723 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Enhancing Global Flood and Drought Forecasting with SEED-FD: Integrating Remote Sensing for Hydrological Insights 

Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews and the Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews

Floods and droughts are among the most destructive hydrological extremes, creating severe socio-economic disruptions worldwide. Many regions, especially those in the Global South, remain highly vulnerable due to inadequate forecasting precision caused by sparse observational networks and limited model capabilities. The European Commission-funded SEED-FD (Strengthening Extreme Events Detection for Floods and Droughts) project under Horizon Europe aims to address these gaps by leveraging advanced Earth observation (EO) and non-EO datasets to strengthen forecasting systems for floods and droughts.

The primary objective of SEED-FD is to enhance the accuracy and global usability of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) Early Warning Systems (EWS). This involves refining key elements of the CEMS hydrological forecasting framework, including the LISFLOOD model’s hydrological processes and calibration strategies, integrating innovative machine learning and data assimilation techniques to improve predictions, and creating new global forecast products. A key focus is on incorporating nontraditional observational data, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow measurements from EO sources, as well as river discharge data obtained from microstations.

The project adopts a two-step strategy: initial algorithm and method validation in data-rich regions (Danube and Bhima basins) to establish proof of concept, followed by scaling and application in three diverse and vulnerable regions—the Paraná River Basin (Brazil), the Niger River Basin (West Africa), and the Juba-Shebelle Basin (Horn of Africa).

This presentation will cover mid-term findings from SEED-FD, emphasizing progress in hydrological model calibration, improved process representation, data assimilation, and machine learning-based post-processing. These advancements have demonstrated enhanced prediction reliability in the Danube and Bhima basins and offer valuable lessons for scaling solutions to other vulnerable regions.

How to cite: Pedinotti, V. and Matthews, G. and the Vanessa Pedinotti and Gwyneth Matthews: Enhancing Global Flood and Drought Forecasting with SEED-FD: Integrating Remote Sensing for Hydrological Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11723, 2025.

EGU25-12589 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Hydrological dynamics of the Cuvette Centrale peatlands: insights from enhanced land surface modeling and SMOS L-band data assimilation 

Sebastian Apers, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Alexander R. Cobb, Greta R. Dargie, Ian Davenport, Rolf H. Reichle, and Michel Bechtold

The Cuvette Centrale wetland complex, located in the central depression of the Congo Basin, is a critical component of regional and global carbon and water cycles. The hydrological processes controlling these wetlands, of which 16.8 Mha are classified as peatlands, remain poorly understood, due to complex interactions between the Congo River, its tributaries, variable rainfall patterns, and anthropogenic influences. Here, we address this knowledge gap by interpreting the updates introduced by microwave data assimilation. The employed land surface data assimilation framework follows the setup of the 9-km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 Soil Moisture algorithm that includes a land surface model specifically designed to simulate peatland hydrological processes (PEATCLSM).

First, we update PEATCLSM hydrological parameters for the Congo Basin peatlands, using a new event-based approach named: HYdrological PArameterization of in situ water level dynamics using SATellite-based precipitation (HYPASAT). Along with further adjustments to the PEATCLSM module, we significantly reduce the dry bias present in water level simulations with a previous model version. Second, we assimilate L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission for the period 2010 through 2022. We demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS L-band Tb observations into PEATCLSM further enhances the accuracy of water level estimates, indicated by improved temporal correlations with in situ data. Finally, we present an analysis of the data assimilation state updates, which showed widespread systematic patterns that were linked to observed, but unmodeled, upstream river stage anomalies. The data assimilation results highlight the sensitivity of the hydrology of the Congo Basin peatlands to local and upstream rainfall variability, as well as river dynamics, and thus river management. Therefore, we emphasize the need for integrated hydrological and land management approaches in the peatland region.

How to cite: Apers, S., De Lannoy, G., Cobb, A. R., Dargie, G. R., Davenport, I., Reichle, R. H., and Bechtold, M.: Hydrological dynamics of the Cuvette Centrale peatlands: insights from enhanced land surface modeling and SMOS L-band data assimilation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12589, 2025.

EGU25-13634 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Monitoring river profile and discharge with FFSAR off-nadir and SWOT 

Jiaming Chen, Luciana Fenoglio, and Jürgen Kusche

Accurate monitoring of river profiles and discharge is critical for understanding hydrological dynamics and water resource management. However, current nadir radar altimetry is constrained by orbital spacing and the meandering nature of rivers. This study explores the potential of off-nadir processing methods using Fully-Focused SAR (FFSAR) data from Sentinel-3A/-3B and Sentinel-6A, complemented by observations from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.

An automated off-nadir processing algorithm was developed to estimate time-evolving river profiles in the cross-track direction. By applying off-nadir slant range corrections to retracked ranges, we expanded the effective cross-track measurement range to 6.6 km for Sentinel-3A/-3B and 9.3 km for Sentinel-6A. Validation against in-situ data from the Rhine, Danube, and Oder rivers demonstrated water level accuracy, with a standard deviation of difference (STDD) between 0.04 m and 0.09 m. Slope measurements exhibited a precision of 0.7–1.3 cm/km. Comparative analyses of river profiles over 60-km channels revealed STDD values of 0.14 m for Sentinel-6A and 0.19 m for Sentinel-3B.

Additionally, discharge in Rhine, Danube, and Oder rivers are computed from FFSAR off-nadir (2016-2024) and SWOT (2023.04-2024) using Metropolis-Manning (MetroMan) algorithms. Both of the discharge are evaluated against gauges. The results were evaluated using the NRSME and NSE metrics on the reach, showing good agreement between discharge from FFSAR, SWOT and gauges. This study is to prove that the discharge from SWOT can be extended to earlier periods using nadir altimetry data collected prior to 2023.

How to cite: Chen, J., Fenoglio, L., and Kusche, J.: Monitoring river profile and discharge with FFSAR off-nadir and SWOT, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13634, 2025.

EGU25-14014 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Geodetic Constraints on Mountain Bedrock Aquifer Flow and Diffusivity 

Matthew Swarr, Donald Argus, Hilary Martens, Zachary Hoylman, Brett Oliver, and W. Payton Gardner

Groundwater flowing through the fractured bedrock composing most mountain ranges has been increasingly recognized as a vital source of freshwater for both low-elevation communities and mountain ecosystems, maintaining streamflow and constituting a large portion of recharge to lowland aquifers used to support human activities. Despite the growing awareness of groundwater’s role in mountain hydrology and the potential impacts of climate change on mountain groundwater, it remains a challenge to study the dynamics of mountain aquifers, largely due to the low density of observational wells and challenges in characterizing the mountain block over large areas and depths. Here, we report on a new approach to characterize the flow and hydraulic properties of mountainous aquifers at a mountain range scale. We utilize high-precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of vertical crustal displacement produced by the redistribution of freshwater on or near the Earth’s surface to estimate changes in groundwater storage within the Sierra Nevada and Cascades Range of the western United States with high spatial (10s of kilometer) and temporal (daily) resolution over the past two decades. We find that on average groundwater annual recharge is less than discharge, driving long-term declines in groundwater storage over the last 19 years. Furthermore, we find groundwater recharge to be up to 3x more variable than groundwater discharge in these mountainous areas, suggesting that mountain aquifers release a relatively constant amount of water to streams and adjacent lowland aquifers despite fluctuating recharge conditions. Utilizing identified periods of groundwater discharge, we characterize the hydraulic conductivity, storativity, and flow path length of these groundwater systems using fluid diffusion models in combination with our GNSS-inferred groundwater estimates. Our initial estimates of these parameters reveal relatively high values of bedrock conductivity (~1x10-3-1x10-4 m/s) relative to expected values based upon each region’s bedrock lithology, suggesting that areas with highly fractured bedrock as well as saprolite may exert a strong control on groundwater discharge at the mountain range scale. Furthermore, our results indicate that groundwater flow paths can span lengths on the order of 100s-1000s of meters, supporting the notion that groundwater can flow over extended areas supporting recharge at both a local and regional scales. Our work seeks to provide a new set of tools for hydrologists to investigate these often poorly understood systems.

How to cite: Swarr, M., Argus, D., Martens, H., Hoylman, Z., Oliver, B., and Gardner, W. P.: Geodetic Constraints on Mountain Bedrock Aquifer Flow and Diffusivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14014, 2025.

Changes in lake water levels are closely related to climate change and can also reflect information about local human activities. Therefore, obtaining high temporal resolution time series of lake water levels is necessary for accurately analyzing hydrological changes. However, the existing methods mainly focus on the long-term changes in lake water levels, with less attention paid to short-term changes in lake water levels. In this paper, we proposed a new method to construct high temporal resolution lake water level time series by fusing multi-source altimetry satellite data based on Kalman filtering and using the MissForest algorithm to combine meteorological data (Kalman Fusion-MissForest water level, KF-MFWL). The accuracy of KF-MFWL was validated using gauge data , as well as compared with HYDROWEB and DAHITI. Finally, a dataset of daily lake water level time series for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2019 to 2021 has been compiled, and the driving factors influencing water level changes were analyzed. Our result shows that the KF-MFWL time series is comparable to that of HYDROWEB and DAHITI, but with a much higher temporal resolution. The annual rate of water level change for 264 lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is 0.021m/y. Among them, the water level of 82 lakes has significantly increased with an average annual change rate of 0.171m/y, while that of 55 lakes exhibits a remarkable decrease with an average annual change rate of -0.145m/y. This study can provide an important data basis for water resource management in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region.

How to cite: An, Z., Jiang, W., and li, Z.: KF-MFWL: A High-Resolution Time Series Construction Algorithm for Lake Water Levels Based on Multi source Altimeter Satellites and Meteorological Data Fusion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15098, 2025.

EGU25-15307 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the Benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for Rainfall Estimation on a European scale 

Muhammad Usman Liaqat, Luca Brocca, Francesco Leopardi, Stefania Camici, Rubina Ansari, and Jaime Gaona Garcia

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission provide  observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) dynamics on regional to global scales. However, they lack high spatio-temporal resolution, making them challenging to interpret different gravity field products. A join collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA), initiated a decade ago, is known as the Mass- change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC). The ultimate aim of this collaboration to improve the current models and launch new high resolution missions in order to improve capacity for monitoring extreme events such as natural hazards, droughts and floods. The ultimate aim of this collaboration to improve the current models and launch new high resolution missions in order to improve capacity for monitoring extreme events such as natural hazards, droughts and floods. The primary objective of this study to examine the impact of improving spatial-temporal resolution of NGGM and MAGIC on rainfall estimation by developing multiple synthetic experiments on a European scale. The study employed SM2RAIN by inverting the soil water balance equation to estimate the rainfall accumulated between two consecutive TWS measurements. Initially, the ERA5L based TWSA at daily time scale was incorporated into SM2RAIN to check reliability of the model against ERA5L precipitation with spatial resolution of 100 km over Europe with range of latitudes 30 to 60°N and longitudes 10°W to 50°E.. The results shows SM2RAIN exhibited satisfactory performance at a daily temporal resolution, with mean values of R, RMSE, BIAS (0.85, 13.76, -0.29) against ERA5L precipitation. Based on statistical analysis, SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall shows good agreement across the most of Europe except in some areas of the northern Italy, northeastern states (Estonia, Latvia) and costal regions of Norway . Subsequently, synthetic experiments were developed by aggregating the daily ERA5 based TWS data into 5-day intervals which led to a decline in model performance against SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall as evidenced by all statistical measures with mean values of (0.73, 18.41 and -0.43) for CC, RMSE and BIAS respectively. In another experiment where inclusion of a target error 4.2 mm into 5-day TWS further reduce the model ability to access rainfall patterns, resulting in lower CC values across Europe, with the majority of areas showing below 0.3. At a threshold error 42 mm, the model’s performance of model significantly deteriorated in order to capture meaningful rainfall patterns with mean values of CC = 0.04 and RMSE 26.30. The results shows that degrading temporal resolution and larger error make the model quite difficult to capture and represent meaningful rainfall patterns, as the error completely overshadows the underlying dynamics captured in the SM2RAIN-simulated rainfall. The results of the study clearly highlight the benefit of NGGM and MAGIC in improving our capability to estimate various hydrological components relying on satellite data as inputs.

How to cite: Liaqat, M. U., Brocca, L., Leopardi, F., Camici, S., Ansari, R., and Garcia, J. G.: Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the Benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for Rainfall Estimation on a European scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15307, 2025.

EGU25-16988 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Deep Learning Estimation of River Discharge based on Satellite Observations in Mediterranean Catchments 

Jun Liu, Julian Koch, Vianney Sivelle, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Raphael Schneider

Satellite observations have frequently been used for river discharge estimation, particularly in ungauged catchments. The largest challenge for producing continuous time series of river discharge, e.g. with daily time steps, is typically the sporadic nature of satellite observations. Various methods, including spatio-temporal densification of satellite-derived water levels along river networks, have been proposed to address this issue. However, these estimates often suffer from high uncertainties.

Here, we present a novel approach, using both satellite-derived water levels (SWL) and reflectance indices (SRI) to estimate river discharge across 46 river stations in the Mediterranean region. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), known for their efficiency in modeling complex temporal relationships. While LSTM models have been widely applied in rainfall-runoff modeling within the hydrology community, few studies have explored satellite-derived river states as inputs due to their uncertainties and temporal discontinuities.

Gap filling was necessary for SWL and SRI datasets, originally available at intervals ranging from roughly 5 to 30 days. This was accomplished based on freely available discharge from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). For each catchment, we compiled daily dynamic variables. Besides the gap-filled SWL and SRI data, this included observed river discharge, as well as precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration from global datasets.

For benchmarking purposes, we set up and calibrated lumped hydrological models for the same 46 catchments, using the same climate data as forcing. Results show that LSTM models outperformed lumped hydrological models in many catchments when using only climate variables as inputs, i.e. when being informed by the same dynamic data as the lumped rainfall-runoff models. The performance of LSTM models can be further improved with the inclusion of SRI and SWL. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis indicated that while climate variables are the most informative for discharge estimation, SRI and SWL also contribute significantly, but varying across individual stations.

The method integrates satellite-derived river states for improved river discharge estimation, while still allowing ingestion of climate input data. This goes beyond conventional hydrological models being forced by climate data only, or also existing densification algorithms for SWL, only using satellite observations

How to cite: Liu, J., Koch, J., Sivelle, V., Massari, C., Tarpanelli, A., and Schneider, R.: Deep Learning Estimation of River Discharge based on Satellite Observations in Mediterranean Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16988, 2025.

EGU25-18170 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Separation of the hydrological and tidal components in water heights to estimate discharge in the downstream, tidal, Amazon 

Stéphane calmant, Valentin Arjailles, fabien durand, paul coulet, leandro santos, laurent testut, daniel moreira, adrien paris, and rodrigo paiva

The Amazon estuary conveys the largest amount of freshwater to the world ocean (20% of the global runoff). Over the past few years, its discharge exhibited record-breaking anomalies, be it flood events (June 2021 and June 2022) or dry spells (drought of November 2023 and October/November 2024). Assessing quantitatively the imprint of these extremes over the estuarine water level is challenging though, due to the ubiquitous and vigorous tidal signal propagating upstream from the Atlantic Ocean which prevents remote discharge estimates in the estuarine part of the river. We used the multi-mission nadir altimetry dataset composed of J3+S6A, S3A, S3B. Altogether, the satellite tracks encompass the whole estuary from its upstream limit 900 km inland down to the mouths of the Amazon terminal delta, making possible to map synoptically the spatio-temporal evolution of the estuarine water level and compute the separation of the tidal and hydrological contributions into the water surface height. The approach relies on an accurate de-aliasing of the tide in the altimetry records, based on a cross-scale hydrodynamic model of the Amazon estuary purposely developed and duly validated. This model uses the SCHISM ocean circulation code, with resolution of the order of 250 m inside the estuary. It allowed inferring a time-varying tidal atlas, which is utilized to remove the tidal signal from the altimetric anomalies. The altimetric residuals depicts the spatio-temporal pattern of water level anomalies in response to discharge variations, both during the flood and drought periods. For instance, the 2021 and 2022 extreme floods induced an anomaly that lasted about 1 month each time, with water level peaks about 50 cm above the seasonal climatology, extending over the upper 500 km of the 900 km-long estuary. Downstream-ward of this, the imprint of the extreme floods decayed sharply, and reached insignificant magnitude throughout the downstream-most 300 km of the estuary (corresponding roughly to the terminal delta). A mirror conclusion can be drawn for the 2023 drought, with 1 m negative anomaly below the seasonal, mostly restricted to the upper 300 km of the estuary at the peak of the event in November 2023, and with a weak signal further downstream. The magnitude of these anomalies largely exceeds the bounds of the accuracy of our altimetric dataset. We present that it is now possible to derive reliable discharge estimates in the estuarine reach of the Amazon river by converting these tidal-free water levels from altimetry measurements through a classical rating curve, including for the extreme events.

How to cite: calmant, S., Arjailles, V., durand, F., coulet, P., santos, L., testut, L., moreira, D., paris, A., and paiva, R.: Separation of the hydrological and tidal components in water heights to estimate discharge in the downstream, tidal, Amazon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18170, 2025.

EGU25-18942 | Orals | HS6.4

Monitoring surface water storage change in lake and reservoirs  

Luciana Fenoglio-Marc, Jiaming Chen, Bibi Naz, Frederic Frappart, and Jürgen Kusche

Switzerland is today rich in water, and retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element.

As part of the Collaborative Research Center (SFB 1502) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), a project is being carried out to analyze surface water storage change and river discharge using data from the latest generation of satellite altimetry. The goal is to monitor the impact of land use change on the water cycle, here on the exchange of water between rivers, lakes and reservoirs.

We distinguish two groups of lakes: natural lakes and reservoirs. The first group includes both ancient large lakes of small variations related to long-term changes in temperature and small lakes formed in the deglaciated area rapidly changing and related to glacier melting. The second group includes reservoirs with large water variations related to resource management, like hydropower and irrigation. We generate a lake inventory for modern times and trace them in the nadir-altimetry and wide-swath altimetry to monitor seasonal and intra-annual variability of surface between 2016 and 2024. 

Fully Focused SAR nadir-altimeter processed data at 80 Hz, with along-track spacing of 85 meters are chosen together with SWOT swath-altimeter HR products. Lakes with area larger than 0.5 km**2 are used. Only ten of the more than eighty water bodies observed by SWOT in the region are detected by nadir-altimetry, showing that swath-altimetry is best suited for this application. Space-derived height and area time-series evaluated against in-situ, bathymetrie and Sentinel-1 images have higher accuracy in the natural Murnersee (1 cm bias and 3 cm standard deviation) than in reservoir Lake de Joux (31 cm bias  and 13 cm stdd). The surface area has mean accuracy of 10%,  highest change found is 100 m in hydroelectric reservoirs and 10 m in irrigation reservoirs. Most reservoirs are operated in a network. 

We look at 70 water bodies with variations larger than 10 m, assuming that larger variations are related to water management. Annual minima are in May for hydroelectric and in November for irrigation reservoirs, while in natural lakes the annual maximum is in Summer. The amplitude of storage change in hydroelectric reservoirs is 70% higher than in irrigation reservoirs and is 80% higher than in natural lakes.  The water budget in catchments is analysed comparing to land runoff and snowmelt from CLM model which is not including irrigation and hydropower.

This study hightlights the importance of the new satellite altimeter observations to study climate change, land and water use.

How to cite: Fenoglio-Marc, L., Chen, J., Naz, B., Frappart, F., and Kusche, J.: Monitoring surface water storage change in lake and reservoirs , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18942, 2025.

EGU25-19181 | Posters on site | HS6.4

Reconstruction of reservoir water level and storage using Sentinel-1 C-SAR 

Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Jakub Kadlec, and Jan Skaloš

Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) provides a new means for indirectly monitoring water reservoir level and storage by mapping water cover at resolutions suitable for large water bodies. Monitoring these fluctuations is essential for informed water resource management even in otherwise gauges reservoirs for the purpose of verification, detection of anomalies due to changes in floor morphology, etc. However, classification of water on SAR images can be ambiguous, to which end several non-parametric methods such as Otsu, Kittler–Illingworth (Kavats et al., 2022), k-means (Cheng et al., 2022), and entropy-based image thresholding (Sekertekin, 2021) have been proposed. Here we evaluate the capability of these methods to accurately reconstruct reservoir biweekly water level and storage. The analysis is performed on Sentinel-1 Ground Range Detected (GRD) imagery, acquired in the VV polarization mode from the COPERNICUS/S1_GRD image collection from October 2014 till today using Google Earth Engine (GEE). Processing is performed using the GEE JavaScript API and executed through the R programming environment using the rgee package. Water level and storage are derived from water cover using respective level-area and level-storage curves. The methods are applied to two reservoirs located in Greece and the Czech Republic, which are characterised by distinct seasonal water availability and demand leading to the respective reservoir level fluctuations. Results are validated by comparing against official measurements, indicating satisfactory fit. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed methods automated continuous reservoir monitoring, especially in regions facing increasing climatic variability as climate change is expected to increase the intensity of droughts and seasonal fluctuations in water availability. The study contributes to improving methodologies for assessing water dynamics in diverse climatic environments and supports the development of more efficient strategies for water resource management.

Acknowledgements

This research was conducted during ERASMUS+ KA131 mobility (contract number 1023). This work has received funding from REACT4MED: Inclusive Outscaling of Agro-Ecosystem Restoration Actions for the Mediterranean. The REACT4MED Project (grant agreement 2122) is funded by PRIMA, a program supported by Horizon 2020.

References

Cheng, L., Li, Y., Zhang, X., & Xie, M. (2022). An Analysis of the Optimal Features for Sentinel-1 Oil Spill Datasets Based on an Improved J–M/K-Means Algorithm. Remote Sensing, 14(17), 4290. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14174290

Kavats, O., Khramov, D., & Sergieieva, K. (2022). Surface Water Mapping from SAR Images Using Optimal Threshold Selection Method and Reference Water Mask. Water, 14(24), 4030. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14244030

Sekertekin, A. (2021). A Survey on Global Thresholding Methods for Mapping Open Water Body Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery and Normalized Difference Water Index. Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering, 28(3), 1335–1347. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-020-09416-2

How to cite: Daliakopoulos, I., Kadlec, J., and Skaloš, J.: Reconstruction of reservoir water level and storage using Sentinel-1 C-SAR, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19181, 2025.

EGU25-19256 | ECS | Orals | HS6.4

Estimation of surface water volume using CYGNSS and radar altimetry 

Rachith Vasuman Suresh, Abhilasha Garkoti, and Balaji Devaraju

Surface water storage in inland water bodies is crucial for understanding water storage dynamics, which directly impact the hydrological cycle. Traditional in situ methods face limitations in capturing these dynamics, especially for smaller and remote water bodies, highlighting the need for alternative approaches. Remote sensing techniques, particularly the combination of Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry (GNSS-R) and radar altimetry, offer significant opportunities to overcome these challenges. By leveraging the unique capabilities of  CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) and radar altimetry missions, it is possible to monitor water surface extent and elevation over time, enabling continuous estimation of surface water volume in both large and small water bodies.

This study employs the CYGNSS satellite constellation to generate water masks from Delay Doppler Maps (DDMs) for Gandhisagar reservoir, Ghaghra river in Ayodhya, and Chilka lake. CYGNSS can distinguish smooth water surfaces from rough terrestrial surfaces as the DDMs generated are dominated by coherent reflections. This makes it a valuable tool for inland water body detection. An algorithm is developed to classify DDMs into coherent, incoherent, and mixed categories using a deep convolutional neural network based on the InceptionResNetV2 architecture, achieving a classification accuracy of 97.46\%. The water masks generated by CYGNSS will be compared against Pekel Global Surface Water masks and Sentinel-1 data using a thresholding method to ascertain the performance.

The elevations of the water body are estimated from radar altimetry satellites Sentinel-3 and Sentinel-6, and also from Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. These estimates are then compared with in situ Water Resources Information System India (WRIS-India) data provided by the Central Water Commission, Government of India. By combining water surface area from CYGNSS and elevation data from satellite altimetry missions surface water volume change is calculated. This approach provides a framework for assessing volumetric changes in inland water bodies by combining multiple datasets.

How to cite: Suresh, R. V., Garkoti, A., and Devaraju, B.: Estimation of surface water volume using CYGNSS and radar altimetry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19256, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19256, 2025.

The water budget of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) relies on surface water and groundwater inflows from snowmelt in the Wasatch Mountain Block (WMB).  Existing estimates of direct groundwater inflows to GSL are essentially derived from water budget residuals (i.e. inflow needed to balance the water budget) and are therefore subject to large uncertainty.  Independent measures of groundwater inflows are needed to verify and improve water budgets and to evaluate the complex interplay between lake water and groundwater.  Groundwater modeling, stream chemistry, streamflow modeling, and stream hydrograph analyses indicate that groundwater inflow (both directly into GSL and into streams within the GSL watershed) have been underestimated.  Recent research has documented that most snowmelt infiltrates soils and recharges groundwater in the WMB before contributing to surface water supplies in the Salt Lake Valley. However, subsurface water storage and its role in water budget calculations remain difficult to quantify based on traditional hydrologic observations.  Geophysical observations (GPS and satellite- and terrestrial-gravity) provide independent constraints on the flow and storage of water mass in the Mountain Block- Valley hydrological system. We demonstrate that geophysics data combined with land surface energy balance models, stream hydrograph data, and snowpack are suited to quantify the amount and time scales of water storage in seasonal snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water storage in reservoirs and the GSL.

How to cite: van Dam, T.: Understanding Flow and Storage between the Wasatch Mountain Block and the Salt Lake Valley using GPS, Satellite Gravity, and Terrestrial Gravity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20595, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20595, 2025.

EGU25-3176 | Posters on site | HS6.5

Multi-Sensor SAR-Based Flood Mapping for High-Temporal Monitoring of the 2020 Flood Event in Thừa Thiên Huế, Vietnam 

Felix Bachofer, Patrick Sogno, Elly Schmid, Kerstin Büche, André Assmann, and Hoang Khanh Linh Nguyen

The 2020 flood season in Thừa Thiên Huế province, Central Vietnam, was among the most severe in recent history, driven by consecutive tropical storms and prolonged heavy rainfall. Between October and November 2020, a series of storms, including Tropical Storm Linfa, Typhoon Molave, and Typhoon Goni, brought intense precipitation, causing widespread inundation and significant damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. The hydrological complexity of the region, characterized by mountainous terrain, low-lying floodplains, and the extensive Tam Giang-Cau Hai lagoon system, further exacerbated the flood impacts, underscoring the need for advanced monitoring tools to capture the event's dynamics.

This study leverages multi-sensor Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, including Sentinel-1, Cosmo-Skymed, and TerraSAR-X, to create a high-temporal flood inventory for this hydrologically challenging region. Multi-temporal SAR intensity and coherence data were processed using threshold-based change detection algorithms and normalized difference indices to delineate flood extents. These SAR-based methods, immune to cloud cover, provided continuous observations despite the adverse weather conditions during the flood. Validation was performed using in-situ flood markers and drone imagery, ensuring accuracy in the derived flood maps. To complement SAR data, hydrodynamic modeling using HEC-RAS simulated water flow, inundation depths, and river system behavior, enabling cross-comparison with SAR-derived flood extents.

The 2020 flood event highlighted a challenge often associated with satellite-based flood mapping: image acquisitions seldom capture the peak of the flood. However, the high temporal resolution provided by the combined SAR datasets allowed researchers to track the pulse of the flood, revealing its evolution and alignment with storm events and precipitation patterns. This capability provided critical insights into the timing, extent, and dynamics of flooding, even in a region with complex topography and hydrology.

The high-temporal flood inventory produced in this study enhances understanding of flood dynamics across diverse land-cover types, enabling improved flood risk assessments and adaptive management. The outcomes not only advance flood monitoring methodologies for Vietnam but also demonstrate the value of integrating Earth Observation data with hydrological modeling to support disaster risk reduction efforts. This approach offers scalable solutions for other regions prone to extreme weather events, contributing to global efforts in informed decision-making and adaptive flood management strategies.

How to cite: Bachofer, F., Sogno, P., Schmid, E., Büche, K., Assmann, A., and Nguyen, H. K. L.: Multi-Sensor SAR-Based Flood Mapping for High-Temporal Monitoring of the 2020 Flood Event in Thừa Thiên Huế, Vietnam, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3176, 2025.

EGU25-6094 | ECS | Orals | HS6.5

Enhanced Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping Using SAR Data: A Case Study of Afghanistan’s Flood Events (2018–2024) 

M. Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki, Mahdi Motagh, and Mahmud Haghshenas Haghighi

Afghanistan faces severe flood risks, but challenges such as limited flood data, cloud cover, and difficulties in on-ground data collection hinder traditional flood mapping methods. This study introduces an automated flood mapping approach using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to overcome these limitations. Combining SAR intensity and interferometric coherence analyses, the method improves flood detection accuracy, particularly in complex terrains and rapid-onset events. The study spans the period from 2018 to 2024, covering 17 flood events across the country.

Processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE), the method enables near-real-time monitoring by analyzing dense Sentinel-1 SAR time series data. SAR intensity identifies floodwaters, while coherence detects subtle changes in vegetated and urban areas, where intensity alone may fall short. Interferometric coherence was derived using the Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline (HyP3), a cloud-based SAR processing platform accessed via the Alaska Satellite Facility (ASF) Data portal.

Validated against high-resolution PlanetScope imagery, the approach achieved F1 scores exceeding 82% in key provinces like Faryab and Baghlan. Land cover analysis revealed irrigated agriculture as the most affected type (709 hectares), while coherence mapping highlighted vulnerable urban areas, such as Baghlan-e-Markazi and Charkiar cities.

Compared to the Global Flood Monitoring (GFM) system, this method significantly improves detection accuracy, capturing up to 83% more flood extent in certain areas. For example, in Baghlan Province, it detected 709 hectares of flooding versus GFM’s 114 hectares.

By leveraging SAR data, HyP3, and GEE’s processing capabilities, this method provides a scalable, rapid-onset, and efficient solution for flood monitoring in data-scarce regions. Covering seven years of flood events, it offers a valuable tool for disaster management in Afghanistan and other regions vulnerable to climate change-induced flooding.

How to cite: Hotaki, M. S. F., Motagh, M., and Haghshenas Haghighi, M.: Enhanced Flood Hazard Assessment and Mapping Using SAR Data: A Case Study of Afghanistan’s Flood Events (2018–2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6094, 2025.

EGU25-6671 | Posters on site | HS6.5

Earth Observation data for Advancing Flood Forecasting: EO4FLOOD project 

Angelica Tarpanelli, Guy Schumann, and Cecile Kittel and the EO4FLOOD team

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, causing severe damage to human health, the environment, cultural heritage, and economies. Over the past 50 years, Europe alone has experienced approximately 4,000 fatalities and $274 billion in economic losses due to floods. The situation is even more severe in developing regions, where the lack of infrastructure and resources intensifies the impacts of such disasters. As climate change exacerbates the frequency and intensity of flood events, there is an urgent need for innovative approaches to improve flood forecasting and reduce societal impacts.

EO4FLOOD is a project funded by ESA demonstrating the potential of advanced satellite data in enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of flood forecasting systems. The project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art satellite technologies and hydrological and hydraulic models to deliver reliable flood predictions up to seven days in advance.

EO4FLOOD is structured around three main objectives:

  • Development of an Advanced EO Dataset: The EO4FLOOD dataset integrates high-resolution satellite products from ESA and non-ESA missions, providing global coverage of critical variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, snow, flood extent, water level and river discharge.
  • Integration into Flood Forecasting Models: By combining these datasets with machine learning-enhanced hydrological and hydraulic models, the project achieves more accurate flood predictions while quantifying uncertainty.
  • Demonstration for Science and Society: EO4FLOOD showcases the application of these tools in flood risk management and explores the influence of human activities, such as land-use changes and dam construction, on flood dynamics.

By leveraging cutting-edge algorithms and satellite products, EO4FLOOD provides a robust framework for advancing flood forecasting and supporting effective disaster preparedness and response, highlight its broader implications for global flood risk management.

How to cite: Tarpanelli, A., Schumann, G., and Kittel, C. and the EO4FLOOD team: Earth Observation data for Advancing Flood Forecasting: EO4FLOOD project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6671, 2025.

EGU25-7115 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

A catchment-scale screening tool for the assessment of bridge overtopping using GIS and LiDAR-derived digital elevation models 

Michele Amaddii, Fabio Castelli, and Chiara Arrighi

Bridges are critical infrastructures of the transport network given their high construction costs and limited alternative routes. Flood events are the most frequent cause of damage to transport infrastructure compared to any other natural hazard. Bridge overtopping is a phenomenon with serious safety consequences for drivers and leads to cascading effects such as traffic disruption and reduced efficiency of evacuation and emergency plans. Whereby, proactive management is essential to enhance bridge resilience and ensure user safety.
This work introduces a catchment-scale screening method using GIS and remotely sensed data to assess the propensity of riverine bridges to overtopping. The application of the method is based on the use of elements such as road network (OSM), hydrographic network, and LiDAR-derived Digital Elevation Models of the bare terrain (DTM) and of the surface (DSM). The propensity of bridges to overtopping is evaluated considering the geometric and morphological characteristics of river-roads intersections, independent of hydrological forcing. The method assumes that bridges with intersection heights (Hi), i.e. the difference between the road level (DSM) and river thalweg (DTM), lower than the corresponding cross-section heights (Hs), are more prone to overtopping during floods.
Intersections between roads and the hydrographic network were identified, and Hi values were calculated by extracting elevation differences within a defined buffer. To minimize noise from vegetation and other elements in the DSM, the topographic ruggedness index was employed as a filter, assuming that roads have smooth surfaces compared to the high roughness of vegetation. Field measurements of Hi were performed to validate the remotely sensed Hi values. Riverbanks and their corresponding Hs values were identified using the Iso Cluster Unsupervised Classification approach, testing various morphometric derivatives of the DTM. A combination of profile curvature and maximum difference from mean elevation provided the clusters of landforms corresponding to riverbanks.
The method was applied to the Magra River basin in Italy (970 km²), an area frequently impacted by flood events.
Results indicate that for roads intersecting streams with Strahler order (S) <4 the median height error (∆he) between remotely sensed and measured Hi is significant (2 m, i.e. 40%). In contrast, the method proved effective for S>3 (∆he= 0.4 m, i.e. 12%). The mean cross-section width for such streams is 35 m (excluding the main river), which is two orders of magnitude larger than the planimetric accuracy of the DTM (0.3 m). A total of 231 bridges were identified, and approximately 30% exhibited Hi<Hs, indicating a high propensity for overtopping. This approach enables large-scale screening to identify road-river intersections with geometric and morphological predispositions to overtopping. It provides a valuable tool for prioritizing bridges for further hydrologic-hydraulic and traffic disruption modeling, supporting infrastructure resilience, and flood risk management.

Acknowledgments
This study was founded by the European Union - Next Generation EU through the PRIN 2022 call powered by MUR, within the project “FLOOD@ROAD” (Prot. 202257JJSJ).

How to cite: Amaddii, M., Castelli, F., and Arrighi, C.: A catchment-scale screening tool for the assessment of bridge overtopping using GIS and LiDAR-derived digital elevation models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7115, 2025.

EGU25-7445 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Global Soil Moisture Products for Flood Modeling in a Semi-Arid Area 

El Mahdi El Khalki, Tramblay Yves, Massari Christian, Brocca Luca, Simonneaux Vincent, Gascoin Simon, and Saidi Mohamed Elmehdi

Devastating floods in the Mediterranean region are caused by heavy rainfall. Flood forecasting systems are essential in Maghreb countries like Morocco to reduce the consequences and impacts of floods. Developing such a system for ungauged areas is challenging. Even though there is a shortage of observed data, remote sensing products offer a promising solution to fill these data gaps. Different soil moisture and precipitation products are evaluated against in situ data for flood modeling applications. Using an event-based hydrological model with an hourly time step, the results show that observed soil moisture is strongly related to the SMOS-IC satellite product and the ERA5 reanalysis. The comparison of soil moisture records allowed us to calculate the initial soil moisture state using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN). Daily in situ soil moisture data may not represent basin soil moisture conditions; however, ASCAT, SMOS-IC, and ERA5 products performed similarly in terms of validation for flood modeling. The daily time step may not accurately represent the saturation state just before a flood, as soil moisture in these semi-arid areas is depleted more quickly after rainfall. For the hourly time step, the initial soil moisture conditions of the SCS-CN model were found to be more accurately represented by ERA5 and in situ data. This work highlights the potential of remote sensing products to improve flood forecasting in semi-arid regions, providing valuable information for the development of robust hydrological models where traditional data are scarce.

How to cite: El Khalki, E. M., Yves, T., Christian, M., Luca, B., Vincent, S., Simon, G., and Mohamed Elmehdi, S.: Global Soil Moisture Products for Flood Modeling in a Semi-Arid Area, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7445, 2025.

EGU25-7538 | ECS | Orals | HS6.5

An enhanced global terrain map using a vision transformer machine learning model 

Peter Uhe, Laurence Hawker, Chris Lucas, Malcolm Brine, Hamish Wilkinson, Anthony Cooper, and James Savage

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) describe the earth surface’s topography and are an important source of information for applications of physical modelling, engineering and many others. Flood inundation modelling, where water flows are determined by terrain slope, is also highly dependent on DEM quality. The most accurate DEMs currently available are sourced from airborne LiDAR, however these only cover a small fraction of the globe, leaving the majority of the globe sourced from satellite imagery. Satellite based DEMs have limitations and are considered Digital Surface Models (DSMs) which represent the surface of vegetation canopy, buildings and other objects, rather than the bare earth surface which is represented by a Digital Terrain Model (DTM). 

Due to this, we have developed FathomDEM, a DTM generated from the best global satellite based DSM, Copernicus DEM. FathomDEM uses a novel vision transformer technique to improve on previous attempts to generate a DTM from Copernicus DEM.  FathomDEM reduces the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error to half of our previous work, FABDEM, and quarter of Copernicus DEM, while also improving the spatial correlation. 

Flood simulations of inundation using a given DEM shows its use in a real world application and we present results showing flood inundation maps from different global DEMs and LiDAR. FathomDEM gives similar scores to LiDAR data when compared to benchmark flood extents, tested across multiple sites. FathomDEM therefore provides a significant advance when applied to flood inundation modelling in locations without LiDAR DEMs. 

How to cite: Uhe, P., Hawker, L., Lucas, C., Brine, M., Wilkinson, H., Cooper, A., and Savage, J.: An enhanced global terrain map using a vision transformer machine learning model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7538, 2025.

EGU25-9140 | ECS | Orals | HS6.5

Building a global archive of flood events for the last decade based on Sentinel-1 

Andrea Betterle, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Franziska Kraft, Sandro Martinis, Patrick Matgen, Florian Roth, Tobias Stachl, Wolfgang Wagner, Claudia D'Angelo, and Peter Salamon

The observation of floods from space using Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR) is a powerful means to understand how inundations unfold across space and time, together with the ensuing impacts. The systematic quantification of the extension of flooded areas and its dynamics is crucial to inform mitigation strategies and organize rescue efforts. Spatiotemporal trends in flood impacts can also help interpret the joint dynamics of climate and exposure, the first for example being associated with climate change while the second with socio-economical evolution. Furthermore, a comprehensive and consistent knowledge of flood events can help to quantify the effectiveness of legislative frameworks attempting to reduce flood impacts, such as the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC).

This contribution presents the effort in building a global archive of flood events — featuring not only flood extent but also water depth — based on the flood delineations provided by the Copernicus Global Flood Monitoring (GFM). The flood delineations provided by GFM based on Copernicus Sentinel-1 SAR are enhanced using terrain topography, and they are complemented with water depth estimates obtained via the recently released algorithm FLEXTH (Betterle and Salamon, NHESS, 2024). The flood archive will have a global coverage at 20 m spatial resolution, spanning from 2015 until present. The procedure behind the construction of the dataset will be presented, together with the forthcoming steps of combining flood depth maps with exposed asset to further complement the database with flood impacts.

How to cite: Betterle, A., Bauer-Marschallinger, B., Kraft, F., Martinis, S., Matgen, P., Roth, F., Stachl, T., Wagner, W., D'Angelo, C., and Salamon, P.: Building a global archive of flood events for the last decade based on Sentinel-1, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9140, 2025.

EGU25-10980 | Posters on site | HS6.5

Integrated coastal-river water surface elevation datasets derived from SWOT to improve compound flooding simulations over the Mekong Delta 

Monica Coppo Frias, Cecile Marie Margaretha Kittel, Karina Nielsen, Aske Folkmann Musaeus, Christian Toettrup, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein

River deltas are home to more than 400 million people worldwide, being fundamental centers for industry, and ecosystems of great ecological and economic importance. Some of the most densely populated rural and urban areas are in low-lying deltaic regions, such as the Mekong Delta. These areas are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on coastal-river floods, which are driven by several factors, such as sea level rise, extreme river flows or storm surges. To mitigate these effects, accurate integrated coastal-river hydraulic models are essential for enhancing predictive capabilities for compound flooding events and developing effective contingency plans. However, the accuracy of hydraulic models is often limited by the quality of available observations. Developing reliable datasets for coastal-river domains involves addressing several challenges, including a) the high spatial and temporal variability of coastal-estuary dynamics, b) the complex morphology of delta regions characterized by extensive floodplains, braided river channels, and man-made structures, and c) the lack of continuous coastal-river datasets.

Traditional in-situ monitoring provides data only at widely spaced stations, which limits coverage. As a results, satellite Earth Observation (EO) has emerged as a solution to generate datasets with large spatial coverage and high spatial resolution. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is the first dedicated mission to monitor surface water, while also providing ocean height measurements, making it ideal to overcome the monitoring challenges in coastal-river domains. The SWOT mission, with a 120 km wide swath, offers large spatial coverage that can deliver water surface elevation (WSE) and surface water extent observations for rivers as narrow as 50 meters. Additionally, the mission offers a revisit time of 21 days, delivering 2-6 observations in each cycle.

In this study we utilize SWOT observations over the Mekong Delta to generate continuous datasets that span from the river to the ocean. These datasets are used to inform and validate an integrated coastal-river hydraulic model of the Mekong Delta. The SWOT L2_HR_Raster product is exploited at a 100-meter resolution, to derive coastal and estuarine WSE time series and surface water extent. This dataset has the capability to map complex river morphological structures at a temporal resolution previously unattainable by satellite EO missions. It can also capture the effects of ocean tides and storm surges on river water levels, as well as the impact of high river flows on coastal domains. Moreover, the 2D nature of the L2_HR_Raster product can deliver not only river-ocean WSE profiles, but also coastal longitudinal ocean height, to better understand the effect of high river flows in near-coastal areas.

The results provide continuous coastal-river datasets mapping the interplay between near coastal and estuarine dynamics, as well as the complex morphology of the Mekong Delta region. The datasets are used to calibrate and validate a hydraulic model of the Mekong Delta that integrates river and coastal zones to accurately simulate WSE and surface water extent in deltaic regions. The integrated model supports better prediction capabilities for compound flooding simulations and the impacts of climate change on the coastal and estuarine environments.

How to cite: Coppo Frias, M., Kittel, C. M. M., Nielsen, K., Musaeus, A. F., Toettrup, C., and Bauer-Gottwein, P.: Integrated coastal-river water surface elevation datasets derived from SWOT to improve compound flooding simulations over the Mekong Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10980, 2025.

EGU25-11828 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Satellite Mapping Analysis of the November 2023 Flood in Prato, Tuscany 

Beatrice Carlini, Luca Baldini, Elisa Adirosi, Giovanni Serafino, Giovanni Scognamiglio, and Roberta Paranunzio

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to greater risks for vulnerable urban areas. Inadequate infrastructure often exacerbates vulnerability of many areas, resulting in significant socioeconomic losses from climate-related hazards and in particular flooding. Satellite services, smart technologies such as GIS-based Digital Twin help to simulate flooding scenarios to support urban planning and decision-making and provide monitoring and short-term forecasting of floods thus contributing to enhance climate resilience and to strengthen financial risk strategies.

To ensure that these systems operate effectively, the validation of their predicted  outputs in terms of flooding maps is crucial. This task is usually possibly carried out using the satellite-based data available and particularly those from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which are effective in various meteorological conditions. In urban areas, the application of state-of-the-art SAR-based methods for flood detection is challenging due to the complexity of effects caused by the radar backscattering from built environments.

This study focuses on validating flood maps for urbanized environments based on a consolidated approach that reprocesses the clustering result with fuzzy logic approach (Pulvirenti et al. 2023, DOI: 10.3390/w15071353) and here improved to better estimate flooding in urban areas. The method was applied to a severe precipitation event in November 2023 in Tuscany, Italy, which caused multiple flood episodes. Our focus was on the Florence-Prato-Pistoia plain, the most densely populated area in Tuscany. On November 2, heavy rainfall began in the early afternoon, accumulating 130-170 mm within 5-6 hours. This led to the first flood episodes after 19:00 local time, resulting in several casualties.

Copernicus Rapid Mapper was activated on 03/11/2023, 04:21 (Local time = UTC+1). It produced an estimate of flooded area mainly using one COSMO-SkyMed image, collected on November 6, after a second storm occurred in the night between 4 and 5 November. In our analysis we used two images. For the common image, good spatial correspondence was obtained. However, due to the late availability of satellite images, critical early floods were missing.

This work takes this case study to address the opportunity and challenges of flood detection in urban areas using satellite data. While highlighting the importance of having a satellite flood mapping service, some drawbacks are also pointed out, such as the lack of revising time that can imply missing early stages of floods to early implement search and rescue operations. Projects to improve revisiting time are related to the emergence of next generation constellations, such the ASI/ESA IRIDE multisatellite and multiservice constellation. In case of fast evolving phenomena, such as the one considered in this study, a higher time resolution of flood mapping would increase the chance to obtain data even in the first floods. In practice, resorting to modelling and sensor data coupled in digital twins eventually integrated with obtained from citizens science will be still unavoidable. This is demonstrated within the SCORE project (https://score-eu-project.eu/), a four-year EU-funded project aiming to increase climate resilience in European coastal cities (Coastal City Living Labs - CCLLs).

How to cite: Carlini, B., Baldini, L., Adirosi, E., Serafino, G., Scognamiglio, G., and Paranunzio, R.: Satellite Mapping Analysis of the November 2023 Flood in Prato, Tuscany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11828, 2025.

EGU25-13306 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Ground observations and UAV mapping to support a GIS-based implementation of the Flash Flood Impact Severity Scale (FFISS) for the 2009 and 2020 flash floods in Evia, Greece. 

Nafsika-Ioanna Spyrou, Michalis Diakakis, Spyridon Mavroulis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Emmaouil Andreadakis, Christos Filis, Evelina Kotsi, Zacharias Antoniadis, Maria Melaki, Marilia Gogou, Katerina-Navsika Katsetsiadou, Eirini-Spyridoula Stanota, Emmanuel Skourtsos, Emmanuel Vassilakis Vassilakis, and Efthymios Lekkas

Flash floods have been responsible for some of the most catastrophic events globally. The extensive range of effects and the varying severity of impacts present significant challenges in accurately understanding the damage caused by a flood event, thereby hindering our capacity to predict future consequences. When evaluating flood impacts and their severity, most existing approaches rely on qualitative descriptions (e.g., major, catastrophic, etc.) or examine the impacts from a single perspective or discipline, such as economic losses. In this study, the Flash Flood Impact Severity Scale (FFISS) is employed to evaluate, map, and categorize the impacts of two flash floods that occurred in the Lilas River in Greece in 2009 and 2020. The goal of this application is to analyze the varying severity levels and how one flood event can influence the impacts of a subsequent event. The methodology involved extensive fieldwork, including the collection of ground-based and aerial observations using UAV technology to document the impacts. These observations were subsequently georeferenced, followed by applying the Flash Flood Impact Severity Scale (FFISS) and creating detailed maps to assess and evaluate the severity of impacts associated with the two flood events. The results indicate that, despite the higher water levels during the second flood, areas previously affected show lower severity values. This reduction is attributed to the community’s gradual adaptation, improvements in infrastructure, and significant local widening of the river channel. Conversely, newly flooded areas during the second event exhibit high severity levels. Overall, applying the FFISS reveals spatial patterns of impact severity, offering insights into the local nature of floods while suggesting a potential reduction in overall risk during the post-flood period.

How to cite: Spyrou, N.-I., Diakakis, M., Mavroulis, S., Deligiannakis, G., Andreadakis, E., Filis, C., Kotsi, E., Antoniadis, Z., Melaki, M., Gogou, M., Katsetsiadou, K.-N., Stanota, E.-S., Skourtsos, E., Vassilakis, E. V., and Lekkas, E.: Ground observations and UAV mapping to support a GIS-based implementation of the Flash Flood Impact Severity Scale (FFISS) for the 2009 and 2020 flash floods in Evia, Greece., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13306, 2025.

EGU25-13757 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Semi-Automatic Extraction and Morphometric Characterization of Paleochannels using LiDAR Data: A Case Study in the fens of Lincolnshire, England 

Gianpietro Imbrogno, Giuseppe Cianflone, Rocco Dominici, Giuseppe Maruca, Paolo De Cesare, Mark Schuerch, and Luca Mao

Paleochannels are natural features in floodplains, and their identification and geometric characterization can guide river restoration and natural flood management interventions. This study focuses on identifying the network of dendritic drainage patterns in a portion of the Lincolnshire fens near Billinghay. A semi-automatic approach was developed for identifying paleochannels and performing a morphometric analysis of these features.

A high-resolution LiDAR data survey from 2022 was downloaded from the UK environment portal. The LiDAR digital terrain model has a resolution of 2 m and vertical accuracy of +/- 15 cm. The raw LiDAR point cloud was pre-processes using CloudCompare. An initial ground-level extraction was performed with automatic filters and further refined by identifying and removing additional anthropogenic features such as roads, buildings, and artificial levees along canals, using a vector data analysis. The dendritic drainage channels of the particular study site (6.78 km2) were isolated using a semi-automatic selection with specific elevation filters. The differences in elevation between the paleochannel surface and the surrounding flat areas were used to define distinct elevation ranges for different altimetric bands. Points within these ranges were selected and reclassified to create a preliminary morphological model of the paleochannels. Discontinuous segments were interpolated, and areas with missing values were resampled, resulting in a consistent and detailed representation of the paleochannels.

The dendritic drainage network was characterized in terms of Strahler order, sinuosity, length, and location of connection nodes. Additionally, several cross-sectional profiles were generated and a Python script was developed to quantify the width, depth, and area between the crest of the paleosurface and the ground level. Reaches of paleochannels of higher Strahler order were found to be deeper and wider. The sinuosity is lower for the reaches in the upper part of the dendritic network. Interestingly, the channels are located in areas that are highly convex compared to the surrounding flat areas. The total surface area occupied by the identified paleochannels in the study site is approximately 1.8 km2, which represents a significant portion of the floodplain.

The geometry of the identified enclosed basin and of the dendritic network are being used to test a morphodynamic model in order to identify the sea level and tidal ranges responsible for the formation of the paleochannels.

How to cite: Imbrogno, G., Cianflone, G., Dominici, R., Maruca, G., De Cesare, P., Schuerch, M., and Mao, L.: Semi-Automatic Extraction and Morphometric Characterization of Paleochannels using LiDAR Data: A Case Study in the fens of Lincolnshire, England, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13757, 2025.

EGU25-14254 | ECS | Orals | HS6.5

A Database of Flood Maps using high-resolution Airborne Imagery and Machine Learning Models 

Dinuke Munasinghe, Sagy Cohen, Dan Tian, and Hongxing Liu

Optical Satellite imagery commonly suffers from the presence of cloud cover during flood events; Radar Satellites are disadvantaged from water look-alike conditions where the ground surface interacts with the incoming radar signal as if it were water; Regardless of modality of satellite, more importantly, satellite overpasses during a flood are chance occurrences where the capture of the maximum extent is a fortuitous incident. Low-altitude aerial remote sensing, on the other hand, can be used to survey the extent of flooding at the peak or soon after it has occurred, with a good measure of reliability. Opportune scheduling of these reconnaissance flights not only capture floods at ultra-high resolution, but also allows for seamless geographical coverage unhindered by cloud cover.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Emergency Response Imagery is very high resolution (50 cm Ground Sampling Distance between pixels) airborne imagery acquired by the Remote Sensing Division of the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) during major flood events in the United States to support NOAA’s homeland security and emergency response requirements.

In this work, we evaluated the performance of four different machine learning models (Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Support Vetor Machine, Convolutional Neural Network) on the ability to classify floods from raw aerial imagery. The classifier with the highest classification accuracy metrics - depending on geographical and hydrological setting – was used to produce flood inundation extent maps for 30 major flood events.

We demonstrate the utility of these high-fidelity flood maps via two use-cases: both synergistic studies to this work. 1) As benchmarks for validation of hydrodynamic model results: Historic flooding occurred on the Neuse River in North Carolina in the United States triggered by Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Several hydrodynamic models were deployed to simulate flood dynamics with an end goal of understanding flood susceptibility in the Neuse basin under changing climate conditions. The aerial imagery-based flood maps were used as benchmarks for model validation. 2) Enhancing the versatility of FIMPEF: Flood Inundation Mapping Predictions Evaluation Framework (FIMPEF) is an open-source, cloud-based geospatial venture by the University of Alabama that calculates accuracy statistics between benchmark and modeled flood extents. Integration of aerial imagery, in addition to the satellite-based benchmarks that FIMPEF was ingesting so far, has vastly enhanced its robustness and user-demand. Free access (no account/login credentials needed) to these high-quality flood maps is granted through the United Sates Flood Inundation Map Repository (USFIMR), an online geospatial warehouse that provides high-resolution inundation extent maps of past U.S. flood events.

How to cite: Munasinghe, D., Cohen, S., Tian, D., and Liu, H.: A Database of Flood Maps using high-resolution Airborne Imagery and Machine Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14254, 2025.

EGU25-15889 | Orals | HS6.5

Local hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for flood forecasting in Burkina Faso 

Laetitia Gal, Pauline Casas, Kévin Larnier, Romulo J. Oliveira, and Adrien Paris

Burkina Faso climate is characterized by a short rainy season and  high rainfall variability, characteristic of tropical-equatorial regions, resulting in extreme rainfall events and high flood risks in its watersheds and cities. In the capital Ouagadougou, rapid urban development associated with low-permeability soils and high precipitation intensity lead to major flooding events (e.g. in 2009, 2016, 2020) affecting households and economy. This vulnerability to flooding also affects other strategic points in Burkina Faso, such as crossroads between national roads and rivers, where overflows almost every year lead to limited road access and hinder economical transportation.

This study presents an innovative integrated framework to improve forecasting capacity and manage flood risks at the local scale, for both (i) pluvial flooding over Ouagadougou city and (ii) fluvial flooding at six points of interest (POIs) across Burkina Faso. The methodology is based on a 2D hydrodynamic modeling using the DassHydro [1] framework and only publicly available data (soil properties, land cover, etc.). For pluvial flooding (Ouagadougou case), this model is forced with operational precipitation products. For fluvial flooding,  daily real-time discharge data computed with the MGB hydrological model [2] are used as boundary conditions for the hydrodynamic model set at the POIs. Both approaches produce local flood maps for different warning levels, based on precipitations  and/or discharge thresholds. Flood maps produced for each POI were validated through comparisons to Sentinel-2 images of  historical floods, on-site flood marks analysis and spatial altimetry.  Additionally, comparisons with previous studies conducted in Ouagadougou as well as historical informations,  demonstrated the relevance and reliability of the results obtained through our methodology at both local scale.

This preliminary approach showed the efficiency of the methodology for a flood risk warning and forecasting system in a data-sparse context and highlighted the strong need for in-situ data and finer-grained topology data, among others, in those regions. Further consideration of new in situ data provided by local agencies should permit increasing the accuracy of forecasts and provide refined risk analysis.

[1] https://dasshydro.github.io/

[2] https://www.ufrgs.br/lsh/mgb/what-is-mgb-iph/ 

How to cite: Gal, L., Casas, P., Larnier, K., J. Oliveira, R., and Paris, A.: Local hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for flood forecasting in Burkina Faso, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15889, 2025.

EGU25-15998 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Enhancing Water Level Estimates with DEM-derived Stream Geomorphometry 

Søren Kragh, Jun Liu, Lars Troldborg, Simon Stisen, Raphael Schneider, and Julian Koch

Accurate water level predictions are increasingly crucial for mitigating flood risks. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models provide water level predictions, but their accuracy depends on detailed information about stream cross-sections and floodplain topography, which are data that are difficult to obtain at larger scale, especially in regions with perennial river systems. Stream discharge is a variable that is more straightforward to predict by conventional hydrological models. However, the relationship between discharge and water level is complex, depending on cross-section geometry and channel roughness. Here machine learning models offer an alternative opportunity to predict water level by ingesting readily available topographic data derived from high-resolution digital elevation models in combination with simulated stream discharge, thereby skipping the need to explicitly define rating curves or to run complex hydrodynamic simulations. The idea is that stream discharge provides information about the temporal variability, whereas the topographic data provides static information in the cross-section geometry.  

First, we present a method for extracting stream geomorphometry from a high-resolution (40 cm) digital elevation model in Denmark. The methodology is based on analyzing elevation changes along cross-sections throughout the entire Danish river network. Stream widths are estimated by identifying the most probable bank positions through a probabilistic count of all possible configurations within 100-meter stream reaches. The resulting dataset has been validated against 2,000 measured cross-sections along Danish rivers, showing similar spatial patterns across reach to river scales. Moreover, the slope and elevation of the water level as well as channel area and depth are derived from the high-resolution DEM for 100-meter stream reaches.

Second, we present the development of a machine learning-based model that utilizes the derived stream geomorphometry in combination with stream discharge simulated by the National Hydrological Model of Denmark to predict daily stream water levels. Timeseries of daily stream water level of 40 gauging stations are used to train a Long Short Term Memory network. The results demonstrate that incorporating topography-derived information of mean water level and slope, stream channel width, area, and depth, enhance the accuracy of the water level estimates. Overall, our approach provides a versatile approach providing crucial information on flood risks that can easily be scaled up to national scale.

How to cite: Kragh, S., Liu, J., Troldborg, L., Stisen, S., Schneider, R., and Koch, J.: Enhancing Water Level Estimates with DEM-derived Stream Geomorphometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15998, 2025.

EGU25-16950 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.5

Closing the Gap: Towards Consistent Flood Extent Retrieval with Multi-Sensor Data Fusion 

Chloe Campo, Paolo Tamagnone, Guy Schumann, Suelynn Choy, Trinh Duc Tran, and Yuriy Kuleshov

Despite the significant increase in Earth Observation (EO) satellites, the frequency of cloud-free imagery at sufficiently high spatial resolutions for timely inundation mapping remains a significant challenge. Obtaining more frequent flood extent estimations would contribute to our understanding of flood dynamics and increase the likelihood of capturing the flood peak, which often evades EO acquisitions. Integrating complementary data from multiple sensors is a potential solution to overcome limitations posed by temporal resolution, spatial resolution, cloud cover, adverse weather, or light conditions. Surface water fractions, indicating the proportion of a pixel covered by water, can be derived from a variety of sensors that passively sense across different spectral ranges daily. However, the fractional coverages are derived at various spatial resolutions, necessitating a methodology to harmonize and combine the information to obtain a comprehensive flood map at a meaningful resolution. The present study proposes a methodology to seamlessly combine data from Low-Earth Orbiting (LEO) multispectral, Geostationary-orbiting (GEO) multispectral, and Passive Microwave (PMW) sensors. The proposed approach is tested on the February 2022 flood event in Brisbane, Australia, and fuse data from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Himawari 8/9 Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). These sensors offer complementary strengths in flood detection, including sub-daily imagery from VIIRS and AHI, and fractional water estimates beneath cloud cover from SSMIS.

Surface water fractions, representing the fraction of a pixel covered by water, are derived from VIIRS, AHI, and SSMIS at spatial resolutions of 375 m, 1 km, and 25 km, respectively. These surface water fractions are subsequently homogenized via downscaling and fused to obtain an aggregated flood map. A Digital Terrain Model and its derivatives, including the Slope, Topographic Water Index, Height Above Nearest Drainage, and Flow Accumulation, and water frequency information are utilized to downscale and distribute the surface water fractions in physically plausible ways. This disaggregation process produces comparable flood maps from all sensors. These maps are thereafter combined to yield a single detailed flood map. This multi-sensor framework ensures the consistent generation of flood maps at a meaningful spatial and temporal resolution, compensating for the unavailability of moderate- to high-resolution imagery due to satellite revisit timing and cloud obstruction. The proposed approach enables more frequent generation of detailed flood maps, providing valuable insights into inundation dynamics to scientists and decision makers.

How to cite: Campo, C., Tamagnone, P., Schumann, G., Choy, S., Duc Tran, T., and Kuleshov, Y.: Closing the Gap: Towards Consistent Flood Extent Retrieval with Multi-Sensor Data Fusion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16950, 2025.

Floods exacerbated by climate change significantly increase the risk of dam failure, posing a critical threat to downstream regions. A cost-effective way to analyze the consequences of dam break floods is by using unsteady hydrodynamic models that incorporate St. Venant’s or diffusion wave equations. These models require detailed topographic data, land cover information, and a dam break hydrograph. This study assesses the influence of various remote sensing topographic datasets on 2-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic flood modeling using HEC-RAS v6. The methodology is applied to İmranlı town in Türkiye, located downstream of an irrigation dam. Under a 500-year return period flood scenario, a breach hydrograph is simulated in HEC-RAS, assuming overtopping when the reservoir is at full capacity. Manning's roughness values are derived from the ESA-WorldCover satellite land use map. Two types of topographic data are tested: Digital Surface Models (DSMs) and Digital Terrain Models (DTMs). Specifically, datasets include field-based Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) DSM (0.5 x 0.5 m resolution), Turkish General Directorate of Mapping (HGM)-based DSM (5 x 5 m resolution), Advanced Land Observing Satellite – Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR)-sourced DTM (12.5 x 12.5 m resolution), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)-sourced DTM (30 x 30 m resolution).

The study also explores the impact of combining high-resolution and low-resolution topographic data by mosaicking LiDAR data, limited to urbanized areas, with other datasets. Results are evaluated using performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), F-index, and correlation coefficient (R²). Additionally, comparisons are drawn using flood-related maps, including flood inundation area, water depth, velocity, duration, and hazard. The study highlights that nearly the entire İmranlı district center and the Doğançal settlement would be inundated in the event of a dam failure, exposing approximately 7,028 individuals to flood risk. The findings suggest that while high-resolution HGM-based data serve as a reliable reference, integrating satellite datasets like ALOS-PALSAR with LiDAR enhances model performance, making them valuable alternatives when high-resolution data are unavailable.

How to cite: Uysal, G. and Tasci, E.: Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling and Comparison of Flood Propagation from İmranlı Dam Break Using Different Remotely Sensed Topographic Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17954, 2025.

EGU25-18097 | Orals | HS6.5 | Highlight

Integration of Remote Sensing and Hydraulic Modeling for Dynamic Flood Monitoring: A Copernicus Emergency Management Service for retrospective flood temporal analysis in Saarland, Germany 

Alexandros Konis, Vasiliki Pagana, Stavroula Sigourou, Alexia Tsouni, Emmanouil Salas, Michail-Christos Tsoutsos, Nikolaos Stathopoulos, Nikolaos Stasinos, and Charalampos (Haris) Kontoes

Floods affect many regions of the world every year and are the most deadly natural hazard. The increasing pressures of a growing global population, widespread ecosystem degradation, and the compounding effects of climate variability and change are significantly increasing flood risks worldwide. Hydrodynamic models, combined with Earth Observations (EO), play an increasingly important role in the comprehensive analysis and characterization of floods, providing a deeper understanding of their dynamics in past, present, and future scenarios.

Under the “Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) Risk and Recovery Mapping (RRM)” framework, this on-call study (i.e., CEMS activation “ΕMSN: Retrospective flood temporal analysis of floods in Saarland, Germany”) focused on the mid-May 2024 (16/05/2024-22/05/2024) flood in Saarland, Germany, which resulted in extensive damage across the Saarland state capital Saarbrücken and several districts in Saarland. Leveraging advancements in Earth observation (EO), this study integrated multi-source remote sensing data into a 2D hydraulic modeling framework to enhance the understanding of flood dynamics in the region through a comprehensive temporal analysis.

Using the HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling open-source software of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), a rain-on-grid approach was employed to simulate direct rainfall runoff to supplement fluvial model simulation of flood propagation over a 7-day period. Model calibration was based on observed water depth data from Gauging stations’ recordings, with adjustments made to improve accuracy. Validation was conducted using EO-derived flood delineations from multitemporal post-event imagery, spanning multi-Platform Satellite products including SAR (Sentinel-1A, RadarSat-2, COSMO-SkyMed and TerraSAR-X) and Optical (Planet Scope) imagery. Therefore, the outputs of the study including the water depth and the flood persistence were derived from the combination of the hydraulic modeling and remote sensing methodologies.

Despite the relatively lower flood thematic accuracy of EO-derived flood outlines in urban and forested areas given the inherent limitations of the SAR analysis techniques, the availability of multitemporal EO imagery was decisive in validating the hydraulic modelling accuracy and robustness. The study findings emphasize the emerging potential of EO data for validating hydraulic models and therefore enhancing flood mapping and monitoring capabilities. In this context, the availability of multitemporal EO datasets further enhanced the flood modelling performance in providing a better insight into the flood propagation and dynamics over the whole period of impact.

Acknowledgment: The service took place under the Framework Service Contract 945236–IPR–2023 “Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) Risk and Recovery Mapping (RRM) Tailor-Made Products. 

We would like to acknowledge the great support of the JRC CEMS team memebrs, namely Guido Di Carlo, Cristina Rosales Sanchez, and Emanuele Sapino, for the completion of this service contract.

How to cite: Konis, A., Pagana, V., Sigourou, S., Tsouni, A., Salas, E., Tsoutsos, M.-C., Stathopoulos, N., Stasinos, N., and Kontoes, C. (.: Integration of Remote Sensing and Hydraulic Modeling for Dynamic Flood Monitoring: A Copernicus Emergency Management Service for retrospective flood temporal analysis in Saarland, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18097, 2025.

EGU25-20493 | Orals | HS6.5

Toward Robust Evaluations of Flood Inundation Predictions Using Remote Sensing Derived Benchmark Maps 

Sagy Cohen, Anupal Baruah, Parvaneh Nikrou, Dan Tian, Hongxing Liu, and Dinuke Munasinghe

Remote Sensing-derived Flood Inundation Maps (RS-FIM) are an attractive and commonly used source of evaluation benchmarks. Errors in model-predicted FIM (M-FIM) evaluation results due to biases in RS-FIM benchmarking are quantified by introducing a high-confidence benchmark FIM, which was manually delineated from ultra-resolution imagery, as Ground Truth. The evaluation results show considerable differences in M-FIM accuracy assessment when using lower-quality benchmarks. A RS-FIM enhancement (gap-filling) procedure is presented and its effect on FIM evaluation results is analyzed. The results show that the enhancement is insufficient for significantly improving the robustness of the evaluation. The impact of including/excluding Permanent Water Bodies (PWB) on FIM evaluation results is analyzed. The results show that including PWB in FIM evaluation can significantly inflate the model accuracy. A novel evaluation strategy is proposed and analyzed. The proposed evaluation strategy is based on excluding low-confidence grid cells and PWB from the M-FIM evaluation analysis. Low-confidence grid cells are those that were estimated to be flooded by the gap-filling procedure, but were not classified as such by the remote sensing analysis. The results show that the proposed evaluation strategy can dramatically improve the robustness of the evaluation, except when a considerable number of false positives exist in the RS-FIM. The analyses showcase the many challenges in FIM evaluation. We provide an in-depth discussion about the need for standards, user-centric evaluation, the use of secondary sources, and qualitative evaluation.

How to cite: Cohen, S., Baruah, A., Nikrou, P., Tian, D., Liu, H., and Munasinghe, D.: Toward Robust Evaluations of Flood Inundation Predictions Using Remote Sensing Derived Benchmark Maps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20493, 2025.

EGU25-1332 | Posters on site | HS6.8

Leveraging Remote Sensing based Soil Moisture for High-resolution Irrigation Water Use Estimation and Validation with Reference Data 

Muhammad Zohaib, Mohsin Hafeez, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud Cheema, Umar Waqas Liaqat, and Hyunglok Kim

Irrigation water use constitutes the largest share of freshwater consumption by humans. With increasing water withdrawals for irrigation anticipated in the coming years due to population growth and climate change, there is an urgent need for effective strategies to manage agricultural water use sustainably. However, traditional methods for evaluating irrigation water use, such as administrative records and field surveys, are often constrained by limited spatial coverage, delays in reporting, and inconsistencies in data accuracy. These limitations significantly impede the timely and reliable assessment of irrigation practices, particularly in expansive canal command areas.

Satellite-based remote sensing offers a robust solution to these challenges by providing consistent, high-resolution data over large spatial and temporal scales. The complementary strengths of microwave and optical remote sensing are particularly advantageous in estimating soil moisture. Microwave sensors, with their ability to penetrate clouds and operate in all weather conditions, are effective in deriving baseline soil moisture estimates. Optical sensors, such as those on Sentinel-2, enhance these estimates through high spatial and temporal resolution data that capture vegetation dynamics and surface conditions. Models like OPTRAM (Optical Trapezoid Model), which utilizes optical indices such as NDVI and land surface temperature (LST), further enable the derivation of soil moisture by linking vegetation health and thermal properties to soil water content. This integration of optical and microwave data improves the accuracy and spatial detail of soil moisture estimates.

This study addresses these issues by utilizing satellite-based remote sensing products to estimate irrigation water use and validate these estimates with ground-based observations from provincial irrigation departments. High-resolution soil moisture estimates will be developed by downscaling microwave-based remote sensing products from SMAP at 1 km resolution using MODIS products, and at 20 m resolution using Sentinel-2 imagery. These estimates will be validated with ground-based soil moisture sensors. The downscaled soil moisture products will form the basis for a soil moisture-based inversion model to quantify irrigation water amounts at fine spatial and temporal scales.

By integrating remote sensing-derived estimates with ground-based water allocation data, this study seeks to enhance the accuracy and reliability of irrigation water use assessments. The outcomes of this study will provide actionable insights for water resource managers, policymakers, and irrigation departments, leading to more effective management of surface water supply, improved water allocation, and enhanced agricultural sustainability in high irrigated areas.

How to cite: Zohaib, M., Hafeez, M., Masud Cheema, M. J., Liaqat, U. W., and Kim, H.: Leveraging Remote Sensing based Soil Moisture for High-resolution Irrigation Water Use Estimation and Validation with Reference Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1332, 2025.

EGU25-4265 | ECS | Orals | HS6.8

Assessing the Impact of Date Production on Groundwater Resources Using Remote Sensing: A Case Study from Saudi Arabia 

Abdulrahman Badaoud, Claire Walsh, and Greg O'Donnell

The scarcity of surface water and limited availability of renewable groundwater, coupled with its significant use for irrigation, raises critical concerns for the future management of water resources in Saudi Arabia. Groundwater serves as the primary freshwater resource in the country, with its utilization expanding to meet growing demands, particularly in the agricultural sector. However, due to the lack of in-situ observations, accurately assessing the status of groundwater resources remains a significant challenge. Remote sensing platforms offer a valuable solution by providing global estimates of various water components, including groundwater storage (GWS), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation.

This study leverages the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite to estimate variations in GWS. The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) is applied to calculate agricultural water consumption via ET, while the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) algorithm is used to derive monthly precipitation values. The case study focuses on three regions known for their date crop cultivation: Madinah, Al Qassim, and Hofuf.

The results reveal an average annual decline in GWS of -6.7, -10.9, and -3.8 mm/year for the respective regions. The annual precipitation rates are 82.1, 99.8, and 101.2 mm/year, while the estimated ET for date crops is approximately 1940, 1489, and 2126 mm/year, respectively. These findings highlight a noticeable downward trend in GWS, underscoring the impact of intensive irrigation practices, as indicated by the high ET values, and the role of climate change, as evidenced by the low precipitation rates.

How to cite: Badaoud, A., Walsh, C., and O'Donnell, G.: Assessing the Impact of Date Production on Groundwater Resources Using Remote Sensing: A Case Study from Saudi Arabia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4265, 2025.

EGU25-4911 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.8

Evaluating the canopy structure dynamics model for maize phenology prediction using Sentinel-2 

Teng Ma, Wenzhi Zeng, Tao Ma, Jing Huang, Yi Liu, Zhipeng Ren, and Chang Ao

Near real-time (NRT) acquisition and accurate prediction of key phenological stages in maize are essential for optimizing irrigation decisions and field water management. The shape model fitting (SMF) approach, based on remote sensing technology, has been widely used for phenological stage detection due to its high accuracy and comprehensiveness. However, existing NRT crop phenology monitoring models are often constrained to specific regions or crop types, with validation primarily focused on temporal scales. Systematic evaluations of these models’ applicability across different regions and crop varieties remain insufficient. Moreover, there is a lack of consensus on the effectiveness of various vegetation indices (VIs) for extracting key phenological stage information and their applicability in phenological inversion. This study integrates an enhanced canopy structure dynamics model (CSDM) with the SMF approach, leveraging Sentinel-2 satellite data to assess the role of different VIs in enhancing the precision of key phenological stage identification and to evaluate the model’s applicability across diverse regions and crop varieties. By analyzing VIs data from two maize varieties cultivated on four farms in Heilongjiang Province, China, we identified nine key phenological stages (seeding, emergence, development of stem, heading, flowering, development of fruit, ripening, senescence, and end of season). The results showed that while different VIs exhibited varying sensitivities and responsiveness to environmental changes at different phenological stages, the enhanced model consistently achieved high predictive accuracy, with RMSEs for most key phenological stages remaining under five days. Additionally, the model exhibited robust fitting performance for varieties with similar thermal time requirements and achieved high accuracy across different regions. It provided stable predictions during early phenological stages, with minor deviations in later stages, primarily attributed to variations in accumulated thermal time rates. In summary, this study systematically evaluated the applicability of the enhanced CSDM-SMF model for maize phenology prediction based on Sentinel-2 data from three perspectives: VI selection, regional differences, and varietal adaptability. The findings provide a more comprehensive understanding for applying this model in academic research and contribute to improving the accuracy of agricultural monitoring and management practices.

How to cite: Ma, T., Zeng, W., Ma, T., Huang, J., Liu, Y., Ren, Z., and Ao, C.: Evaluating the canopy structure dynamics model for maize phenology prediction using Sentinel-2, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4911, 2025.

EGU25-4944 | ECS | Orals | HS6.8

Monitoring maize phenology using multi-source data by integrating convolutional neural networks and Transformers 

Yugeng Guo, Wenzhi Zeng, Tao Ma, Jing Huang, Yi Liu, Zhipeng Ren, and Chang Ao

Abstract:Maize is an essential grain crop in China, playing a crucial role in safeguarding in national food security. However, the increasing instability of the maize cultivation environment caused by global climate change, along with various adverse stress factors, presents significant challenges to maintaining yield stability. Effective monitoring of maize phenology under stress conditions is crucial for optimizing agricultural management and mitigating yield losses. This study proposes an innovative phenological monitoring model utilizing near-ground remote sensing technology. High-resolution imagery of maize fields was collected using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with multispectral and thermal infrared cameras. By integrating these datasets with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Transformer, the study developed a robust and efficient model that fuses multispectral, thermal infrared, and accumulated temperature datasets. The proposed model enables accurate inversion and quantitative analysis of maize phenological traits, offering critical insights to support agricultural management strategies and enhance crop yield stability under stress conditions. The results showed that the integration of multispectral imagery and accumulated temperature achieved an accuracy of 92.9%, while the inclusion of thermal infrared imagery further improved the accuracy to 97.5%. Additionally, UAV-based remote sensing offers superior spatial resolution and operational efficiency compared to manual observation methods in precision and scalability. This study highlights the potential of UAV-based remote sensing, combined with CNN and Transformer as a transformative approach for precision agriculture. It provides a valuable framework for advancing agricultural informatization and enhancing crop management.

Key words: Maize; Crop phenology; Deep learning; UAV;Multi-source data

How to cite: Guo, Y., Zeng, W., Ma, T., Huang, J., Liu, Y., Ren, Z., and Ao, C.: Monitoring maize phenology using multi-source data by integrating convolutional neural networks and Transformers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4944, 2025.

EGU25-5181 | ECS | Orals | HS6.8

Estimation of citrus water requirements by means of water and energy balance models driven by in situ, reanalysis and remote sensing data  

Dario De Caro, Olivier Merlin, Vincent Rivalland, Vincent Simonneaux, Matteo Ippolito, Fulvio Capodici, Carmelo Cammalleri, and Giuseppe Ciraolo

Evapotranspiration (ET) knowledge is crucial for evaluating crop field water budgets and agricultural water resources management. To monitor crop water requirements various data sources are used such as: in situ (meteorological and soil water content data) measurements, reanalysis database, remote sensing observations, and models. Two approaches can be implemented: the Soil Water Balance (SWB) and the Surface Energy Balance (SEB).

This research aimed to evaluate these two approaches, by combining in situ or reanalysis meteorological data with remotely sensed images to explore the possible synergies between the approaches to propose an operational ET estimation in the context of future Thermal InfraRed (TIR) missions (TRISHNA and LSTM). With a SWB model, both actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and soil water content (SWC) were daily estimated; whereas, with a SEB model latent heat flux (LE) was instantaneously evaluated.

Among the available SWBs, the SAtellite Montoring for Irrigation (SAMIR) is a FAO-2Kc-based model integrating remotely sensed images of vegetation cover for evapotranspiration spatialization and water balance. SAMIR can be forced by irrigation either measured or simulated employing specific rules based on the simulated SWC. Alternatively, the Soil Plant Atmosphere and Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration (SPARSE) is a two-source SEB model driven by remotely sensed Land Surface Temperature (LST) and vegetation cover. Both SWB and SEB were investigated by using different input variable combinations. For SAMIR, two combinations were employed: a) using in situ and b) using ERA5-Land reanalysis meteorological variables to estimate crop reference evapotranspiration and precipitation depth. Both incorporated farmer irrigation scheduling and Sentinel-2 NDVI-derived vegetation cover. For SPARSE, three combinations were employed: a) using in situ meteorological data, LST, and albedo; b) replacing LST and albedo with Landsat-8/9 data; c) replacing in situ data with ERA5-Land reanalysis while maintaining Landsat-8/9 inputs.

The experiments occurred during seven irrigation seasons, from 2018 to 2024, in a Mediterranean citrus orchard (Citrus reticulata Blanco cv. Mandarino Tardivo di Ciaculli), located near Palermo, Italy (38° 4’ 53.4’’ N, 13° 25’ 8.2’’ E) in which different irrigation systems and management strategies were applied. The field was equipped with a standard weather station, an Eddy Covariance tower, and four “drill and drop” probes to acquire: meteorological variables, energy fluxes, and SWC, respectively.

SAMIR best performance was obtained using the a-combination with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) always less than 0.54 mm d-1 and 0.02 cm3 cm-3 for ETa and SWC, respectively. These metrics were achieved excluding data from 2021 during which worse metrics (ETa RMSE equal to 0.87 mm d-1) were probably caused by the presence of weeds due to the lack of maintenance provided by the farmer. SPARSE best performance was obtained using a-combination with LE RMSE equal to 53 W m-2. Noticeably, b- and c- combinations were implemented using a limited number of data (contextually to satellites acquisitions) thus achieving worse metrics (RMSE equal to 66 W m-2 and 93 W m-2 for b- and c- combinations, respectively).

Satisfactory results gained permit this work to keep on being updated toward the synergies between the approaches for better ET estimation.

How to cite: De Caro, D., Merlin, O., Rivalland, V., Simonneaux, V., Ippolito, M., Capodici, F., Cammalleri, C., and Ciraolo, G.: Estimation of citrus water requirements by means of water and energy balance models driven by in situ, reanalysis and remote sensing data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5181, 2025.

EGU25-8299 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.8

From Single Reference to Interval-Based Calibration: A Paradigm Shift in Hydrological Modelling with Diverse Remote Sensing Data 

Ye Tuo, Zheng Duan, Haritha Scaria, Bertoldi Giacomo, and Castelli Mariapina

Hydrological modelling in ungauged basins faces significant challenges due to the lack of in-situ measurements for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing (RS) data has emerged as a valuable alternative, providing spatially distributed estimates of key hydrological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and vegetation dynamics. These datasets not only serve as model inputs but also are increasingly used for model calibration and validation, thereby reducing uncertainty and enhancing the model applicability. Despite this potential, a major challenge lies in the discrepancies among different RS products for the same variable. Differences in satellite sensors, retrieval algorithms, and assumptions lead to significant variability in RS products, complicating their integration into hydrological models. This variability makes it difficult to select the most reliable product, particularly in data-scarce regions. Traditional practices often involve applying and comparing multiple RS products in regional studies. Different basins frequently yield different best products, resulting in low model transferability across regions. Alternatively, ensemble products created through data fusion of various RS datasets are used as a single reference to reduce uncertainty. Nevertheless, in both cases, the model parameter space is constrained and refined based on a single representative dataset. The reliance on a singular reference makes the model highly sensitive to biases or inaccuracies in the chosen dataset and overlooks the inherent uncertainty across the spectrum of available RS estimates. This limitation becomes particularly concerning for high-dimensional hydrological systems, where the issue of model equifinality arises and becomes more pronounced as model complexity increases. To address this limitation, we explore an interval-based model calibration strategy that incorporates multiple RS datasets instead of the traditional reliance on a single reference. A suite of algorithms with varying levels of complexity, including Set-Membership, Interval Penalty Minimization, Distributionally Robust Optimization, and Bayesian approaches, are applied to calibrate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using multiple RS-based ET products in the Adige River Basin, Italy. The conventional single-reference calibration approach serves as a benchmark for comparison. The interval-based calibration approaches go beyond identifying a single best parameter set by generating optimum parameter spaces, worst-case optimal sets, and probabilistic parameter distributions, providing a more holistic assessment of model performance by accounting for both optimal solutions and associated uncertainties. The results demonstrate the advantages of interval-based calibration in capturing the inherent variability in RS data, offering new insights into the integration of diverse datasets with hydrological models, particularly in data-scarce regions. By embracing the full spectrum of variability across multiple RS products, this strategy can reduce dependency on potentially biased datasets, increase model robustness and transferability.

How to cite: Tuo, Y., Duan, Z., Scaria, H., Giacomo, B., and Mariapina, C.: From Single Reference to Interval-Based Calibration: A Paradigm Shift in Hydrological Modelling with Diverse Remote Sensing Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8299, 2025.

EGU25-9015 | ECS | Orals | HS6.8

A satellite based product for studying terrestrial water and energy flux dynamics, HOLAPS 

Almudena García-García and Jian Peng

Studying terrestrial water and energy flux dynamics is important for understanding the mechanisms leading to changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. However, the non-conservation of energy and water in most products and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution hamper the study of land-atmosphere feedbacks. The combination of remote sensing data and modelling frameworks allows to greatly improve the spatial coverage and resolution of data products. Here, we investigate the performance of a new data product generated with the high-resolution land surface fluxes from satellite and reanalysis data (HOLAPS) framework. HOLAPS is a one dimensional modelling framework that solves the energy and water balance at the land surface, providing consistent surface and soil variables derived from remote sensing data and reanalysis products as forcings. HOLAPS reaches slightly better results than other ET and H products at daily scales in summer (KGE > 0.3 for ET and KGE > 0.0 for H) and during hot conditions (KGE > 0.2 for ET and KGE >-0.2 for H), while the state-of-the-art products show KGE > 0.1 for ET and KGE > -0.41 for H in summer and KGE > -0.1 for ET and KGE > -0.6 for H during hot conditions. All products evaluated here yield a reasonable performance (KGE >-0.41 at most sites) in simulating SM at the surface and in the root zone. The good performance of HOLAPS together with its inherent advantages (RS data driven, high temporal and spatial resolution, spatial and temporal continuity, soil moisture at different depths and long-term consistent evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux estimates) support its use for hydrological studies based on Earth Observations.

How to cite: García-García, A. and Peng, J.: A satellite based product for studying terrestrial water and energy flux dynamics, HOLAPS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9015, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9015, 2025.

EGU25-9620 | ECS | Orals | HS6.8

Satellite-Based Reservoir Water Monitoring for Irrigated Agriculture in Uruguay 

Federico Campos, Ignacio Fuentes, Federico Ernst, and Rafael Navas

Irrigated agriculture accounts for over 70% of global water consumption, with rice being the most significant irrigated crop in Uruguay, covering 140,000 to 160,000 hectares annually. Approximately half of the irrigation water comes from reservoirs, while the remainder is pumped from rivers and lagoons. However, continuous monitoring of water volumes and flows in irrigation systems is constrained by the high costs of traditional methods, limiting water use planning, efficiency improvements, and equitable water distribution.

Satellite imagery has emerged as a cost-effective tool for natural resource monitoring. Since 2010, platforms like Google Earth Engine have provided free access to geospatial data, enabling environmental analysis without the need for advanced software or hardware. Sentinel-2 (S2) is part of the European Union’s Copernicus Earth Observation program. These satellites are equipped with multiband passive sensors offering 10-30m spatial resolution and a 5-day revisit period, allow the calculation of water indexes like NDWI and MNDWI to measure water surfaces and estimate volumes. However, their performance is influenced by climatic and atmospheric conditions. Sentinel-1 (S1) satellites, with radar sensors providing 10m spatial resolution and a 6-day revisit period, offer all-weather, day-and-night monitoring.

This study was conducted between 2018 and 2024 focused on the "India Muerta" reservoir in Uruguay, using S2 and S1 imagery processed via Google Earth Engine through Google Colab Python scripts. Water surfaces were generated at 20 cm intervals based on the reservoir's digital elevation model and field sensor data, creating a multiband raster. 

For S2 image collection, a filter of at least 80% cloud-free coverage was used, applying additional filtering to ensure 70% cloud-shadow-free pixels over the area of interest. NDWI thresholds (-0.4 to 0.4) were tested to minimize errors and improve accuracy, while S1 imagery used Otsu algorithm to fit the most accurate reflectance thresholds for water detection.

The results showed that variable S2 NDWI thresholds outperformed the S1 Otsu-based detection method, achieving higher accuracy (R² = 0.88 vs. 0.77), lower mean absolute error (MAE = 7.92 vs. 13.43), and lower root mean square error (RMSE = 12.76 vs. 17.15). These findings highlight the benefits of adaptive NDWI thresholds for accurately estimating inundated areas and water volumes compared to radar-based methods.

Satellite-based reservoir monitoring provides critical data for both policymakers and farmers. For governments, it facilitates the identification and planning of reservoirs, ensuring equitable water use. For farmers, it offers a reliable tool for optimizing irrigation and improving water management. Furthermore, it helps managing  irrigation shortages  and addresses water scarcity challenges in present and future irrigated agriculture. This approach represents a cost-effective alternative to traditional monitoring methods, bridging the gap in continuous water resource management in many regions.

How to cite: Campos, F., Fuentes, I., Ernst, F., and Navas, R.: Satellite-Based Reservoir Water Monitoring for Irrigated Agriculture in Uruguay, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9620, 2025.

Land evapotranspiration (ET) primarily involves vegetation transpiration, canopy interception loss, and soil evaporation. Previous studies have made significant progress in total ET estimation; however, substantial challenges remain in partitioning ET on a regional scale, largely due to the intricate water and energy balance that is disrupted by vegetation cover changes. In particular, the use of land surface models to interpret biophysical processes may be susceptible to uncertainties derived from the estimation of vegetation dynamics. In this study, we integrate satellite leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of vegetation coverage (FVC) into the variable infiltration capacity model (VIC) to improve ET partitioning in the Loess Plateau of China. This region has experienced substantial vegetation greening as evidenced by increased LAI and FVC. The results showed that satellite dynamic vegetation parameters in modeling are effective in improving the estimation of ET components compared with the default vegetation parameters. Specifically, the dynamic parameter of LAI in the model altered the inter- and intra-annual variations in vegetation transpiration and canopy interception loss, supporting the application of dynamic FVC in VIC as being reasonable for allocating transpiration to soil evaporation to capture evaporation from forest gaps. This effect is particularly relevant in arid and semiarid regions. Among the ET components, transpiration was the most sensitive to the two dynamic vegetation parameters, followed by canopy interception loss and soil evaporation. In the Loess Plateau, VIC modeling with dynamic vegetation parameters revealed that the effect of soil evaporation was twice that of transpiration, which is appropriate for this semi-arid region with relatively sparse vegetation coverage. Our study offers valuable insights regarding the use of vegetation coverage for partitioning ET and highlights the advantages of integrating satellite vegetation products into land surface models.

How to cite: Peng, D. and Xie, X.: Improving evapotranspiration partitioning by integrating satellite vegetation parameters into a land surface model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9749, 2025.

EGU25-11983 | Posters on site | HS6.8

Estimation of Irrigation Needs by Monitoring Crop Rotations and Phenology of Tomato in Southern Italy 

Michele Rinaldi and the THETIS Team

In the Mediterranean environment, water scarcity has always been a structural constraint to the availability of arable land: the current water crisis and the effects of climate change with increasing temperatures, and the different rainfall regime and its increased variability, require the adoption of measures to maximize water use in agriculture. 
Particular attention must be paid to the irrigated cropping systems, whose water requirements represent about 60% of the entire water demand; it is essential to encourage both infrastructural interventions and new policies that increase the resilience of supply systems, to promote the use of alternative water resources, while implementing more efficient irrigation practices.
In this context is the research project “EarTH Observation for the Early forecasT of Irrigation needsS (THETIS),” that aims to build a spatial decision support system (SDSS) capable of providing, at the watershed scale, estimates of crop water needs to water supply and management agencies with the goal of improving services to farmers. 
The components of the SDSS are: i) a hydrological model (HM); ii) a crop growth model (CGM); iii) Earth observation (EO) data; iv) artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. Earth observation data were used to estimate the transplanting dates of processing tomato in the study area in the province of Foggia, Southern Italy. Sentinel 2 images from the Copernicus constellation were used to calculate the Leaf Area Index of tomato fields from 2000 to 2024, utilizing the biophysical processor in ESA's SNAP application. Additionally, in District 6/B of the CBC, the crop rotations (crop sequences in the same field), were studied to evaluate the occurrence of tomato, as reported by the CBC during in situ surveys in the same period.
The results of the phenological study using LAI data from Sentinel 2 showed that about 50% of tomato fields are transplanted around 15th May and the other half around 15th June. Regarding crop rotations of the 857 monitored tomato fields, 94.2% were found to return to tomato cultivation after 2, 3, and 4 years, with percentages of 35.1, 40.0, and 21.2, respectively.
This study will allow early identification of likely tomato fields (spatial position and area) on 1st April of each year for the THETIS project; these fields are then associated with soil characteristic parameters and forecast weather data to start the simulation of the entire irrigation district with the Aquacrop crop model in the Python version, to serially simulate the predicted fields and estimate irrigation requirements.


Acknowledgment: The project “EarTH Observation for the Early forecasT of Irrigation needS” (THETIS) is funded by ASI under the Agreement N. 2023-52-HH.0 in the framework of ASI’s program “Innovation for Downstream Preparation for Science” (I4DP_SCIENCE). 

References
M. Rinaldi, et al., “A crop model for large scale and early irrigation requirements estimation”, Proc. of the 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, pp. 2807- 2810, DOI: 10.1109/IGARSS53475.2024.10640683.
G. Satalino, et al., “Earth observation for the early forecast of irrigation needs”, Proc. of the 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, pp. 4912- 4915, DOI: 10.1109/IGARSS53475.2024.10642240.

How to cite: Rinaldi, M. and the THETIS Team: Estimation of Irrigation Needs by Monitoring Crop Rotations and Phenology of Tomato in Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11983, 2025.

EGU25-13700 | Orals | HS6.8

Leveraging Earth Observation for Accurate Early Forecasting of Irrigation Needs 

Giuseppe Satalino and the THETIS team

Irrigation is a critical component of global agriculture, supporting 40% of food production on 22% of cultivated land. As climate change intensifies, the demand for irrigation water is expected to rise, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Mediterranean basin.

This study presents the implementation and performance of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) developed under the "EarTH Observation for the Early forecasT of Irrigation needS (THETIS)" project, funded by the Italian Space Agency, designed to forecast irrigation needs in semi-arid Mediterranean environments.

The THETIS SDSS aims to provide irrigation forecasts at a basin scale, focusing on three critical stages: early, at the beginning, and during the summer season. The early stage is crucial for assessing water availability and managing irrigation efficiently. THETIS integrates a hydrological model (HM) and a crop growth model (CGM), leveraging Earth Observation (EO) data and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to spatialize forecasted meteorological and climatic data.

The SDSS combines soil water balance at two spatial scales. At the basin scale, the HM, calibrated with daily streamflow data, reliably reproduces soil moisture dynamics. At the district scale, the CGM, initialized by the HM, better models water dynamics at the local scale, accounting for factors like rain, irrigation, transpiration, evaporation, and drainage.

The HM estimates soil water content at the beginning of the crop growing period, provided by the DREAM hydrological model. The CGM, based on AquaCrop and initialized by the HM, simulates crop development and forecasts evapotranspiration and irrigation needs based on meteorological forcing, hydrologic, and EO-derived information. Forecasted meteorological and climatic data are obtained from the C3S Copernicus Service. CGM outputs are early forecast water demand maps (m³/ha) at the field scale, refined as the cropping season progresses.

The EO-derived information used in THETIS comes from both Synthetic Aperture Radar data (e.g., Sentinel-1, COSMO-SkyMed, SAOCOM) and optical data (e.g., Sentinel-2 and hyperspectral PRISMA). The obtained information includes maps of tilled fields , which, combined with historical land use information based on crop rotation, provide an initial estimate of irrigated areas. Maps of surface soil moisture and derived irrigated/non-irrigated fields refine the localization of irrigated areas after sowing, while vegetation index maps are used during the season for identifying sowing dates.

The system has been set up over the Fortore irrigation district in the Apulian Tavoliere, Foggia, Italy, managed by the Reclamation Consortium of Capitanata, covering an area of 141 km². The SDSS performance was evaluated on tomato crops, focusing on cultivated area identification and water consumption. First results obtained for the 2022 irrigation season indicate that the water consumption of 600 m³/ha, estimated early by the THETIS SDSS using tillage change maps, is comparable to the measured value of 500 m³/ha, considering that additional water volumes from groundwater sources were likely used. The application of THETIS to the 2023 and 2024 seasons is in progress.

 

Acknowledgment: THETIS is funded by ASI under the Agreement N. 2023-52-HH.0 in the framework of ASI’s program “Innovation for Downstream Preparation for Science” (I4DP_SCIENCE).

How to cite: Satalino, G. and the THETIS team: Leveraging Earth Observation for Accurate Early Forecasting of Irrigation Needs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13700, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13700, 2025.

EGU25-14124 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.8

Improved SM2RAIN Algorithm to Estimate Rainfall by Incorporating Soil Physical Properties 

Doyoung Kim, Wanyub Kim, Junhyuk Jeong, and Minha Choi

Spatial and temporal imbalances in rainfall are accelerating due to the increase in extreme weather events caused by climate change. The Korean Peninsula, characterized by a monsoon climate, experiences prolonged periods of summer rainfall. However, in recent years, it has increasingly shifted towards localized heavy rainfall, resulting in frequent saturation of soil moisture and regional imbalances of rainfall. A recent study has demonstrated a correlation between changes in rainfall characteristics and an increase in rainfall imbalance, which has resulted in an escalation in disaster occurrences. To address this challenge, a multifaceted approach to rainfall monitoring has been adopted in Korea, such as a combination of in-situ observations, radar, modeling approaches, and remote sensing data. However, the diversification of rainfall data remains a crucial challenge for effective disaster risk management. In this study, soil physical properties were incorporated into the SM2RAIN algorithm, a simple model that estimates rainfall based on soil moisture content. Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 (SMAP L4) data was utilized as the input to SM2RAIN, and the generated rainfall was then subjected to correlation analysis with SM2RAIN-ASCAT and Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG). Rainfall data incorporating soil physical properties exhibited a comparable trend to that of GPM IMERG. The results of this study are anticipated to ensure the diversification of rainfall datasets by providing a relatively simple method for estimating rainfall in ungauged regions.

 

Keywords: Soil Moisture, Rainfall, SM2RAIN, Soil Physical Properties

 

Acknowledgment

This research was supported by the BK21 FOUR (Fostering Outstanding Universities for Research) funded by the Ministry of Education (MOE, Korea) and National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF). This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) as 「Innovative Talent Education Program for Smart City」. This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Research and Development on the Technology for Securing the Water Resources Stability in Response to Future Change Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)(RS-2024-00332300). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00416443). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-2022R1A2C2010266).

 

 

How to cite: Kim, D., Kim, W., Jeong, J., and Choi, M.: Improved SM2RAIN Algorithm to Estimate Rainfall by Incorporating Soil Physical Properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14124, 2025.

EGU25-14342 | Posters on site | HS6.8

High-Resolution Water Body Detection Using CAS500 in Korean Peninsula 

Shinhyeon Cho, Wanyub Kim, Sungwoo Lee, Sanggon Jeong, and Minha Choi

The effective management and monitoring of water resources is imperative for the ecosystem and environmental conservation. Satellite remote sensing data is an efficient tool for detecting water resources such as rivers, reservoirs, and lakes. In addition, it is crucial for the management and prevention of water disasters. Optical satellite data can be used to detect water bodies with high accuracy using Near-Infrared (NIR) imagery and Normalized difference water index (NDWI). Optical satellite images used for water body detection are mainly medium-resolution satellite images such as those Landsat series and Sentinel-2. However, there is a limitation that the medium-resolution satellite images are less effective in detecting small water bodies and boundaries due to their spatial resolution constraints. To address this, high-resolution satellite imagery and advanced analytical techniques, such as deep learning, can be utilized. In this study, deep learning techniques were applied to CAS 500 images with 2 m resolution to detect water bodies. The water body detection performance was validate using manual mask data and evaluation metrics based on a confusion matrix. Furthermore, water body detection performance was compared with Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Planet Scope (3.7 m) satellite imageries. The results of this study are expected to provide high accuracy water body detection results under various environmental conditions.

 

Keywords: Water Body Detection, High-Resolution, CAS500, Deep Learning

 

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the BK21 FOUR (Fostering Outstanding Universities for Research) funded by the Ministry of Education (MOE, Korea) and National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF). This work is financially supported by Korea Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) as 「Innovative Talent Education Program for Smart City」. This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Research and Development on the Technology for Securing the Water Resources Stability in Response to Future Change Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)(RS-2024-00332300). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00416443). This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (NRF-2022R1A2C2010266).

How to cite: Cho, S., Kim, W., Lee, S., Jeong, S., and Choi, M.: High-Resolution Water Body Detection Using CAS500 in Korean Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14342, 2025.

EGU25-14739 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.8

Enhancing Water Use Efficiency in Wheat Cultivation for Sustainable Water Management Using Different Methods and Rates of Irrigation 

Sumit Kumar Vishwakarma, Priya Singh, Kritika Kothari, and Ashish Pandey

India is the world’s second-largest producer and consumer of wheat after China. In recent years, it produced 70-75 million tons of wheat and contributed around 12% of the global wheat production. Irrigation plays an important role in increasing crop yield. However, considering the increasing competition for water resources, there is a need to use irrigation water effectively.  The present study aims to evaluate the effects of different irrigation methods (drip, sprinkler, flood, and rainfed) and variable irrigation rates (100%, 75%, 50%, and 0% of crop evapotranspiration) on wheat growth. The field experiments on the wheat crop were conducted at the Demonstration farm of the Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee, for the years 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively. Results showed that around 28.62 % of water was saved by the drip irrigation system, and the sprinkler irrigation system saved 19.7 % as compared to the flood irrigation system. Among all treatments, the drip irrigation system retained the highest soil moisture in the top 10 cm depth, whereas the sprinkler irrigation system retained the highest soil moisture in 30 cm and 100 cm depths. Additionally, the results showed that the leaf area index and biomass collected from the sprinkler irrigation system were higher as compared to the drip and flood irrigation systems. Thus, sprinkler irrigation systems can be recommended to promote sustainable water management for wheat cultivation in the Indo-Gangetic plains and similar agroclimatic regions. This practice could play a crucial role in conserving precious water resources and achieving sustainable development goals.

Keywords: - Sprinkler, Drip Irrigation Systems and Sustainable Water Management

How to cite: Kumar Vishwakarma, S., Singh, P., Kothari, K., and Pandey, A.: Enhancing Water Use Efficiency in Wheat Cultivation for Sustainable Water Management Using Different Methods and Rates of Irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14739, 2025.

EGU25-15446 | Orals | HS6.8

Improving Hydrological Process Representation in the Ganges River Basin Using a Data-Assimilation Approach 

Supriya Tiwari, Ehsan Forootan, Bhaskar R. Nikam, and Maike Schumacher

The Ganges River Basin with an area of 1,087,300 km2 is the most populous in the world. In recent years, the increasing severity of hydrological extremes, driven by climate change and human activities, has made water resources increasingly unpredictable, alarming water risks in the region. By understanding how, where, and when these changes affect water resources, we can better prepare and respond to the needs of ecosystems and communities in a rapidly changing climate.

Hydrological models have achieved varying degrees of success in simulating water cycle responses. In particular, they often struggle to accurately capture the non-linearity and complexity of processes in highly heterogeneous basins, such as the Ganges. This challenge is further exacerbated by factors such as changing weather patterns, variability in temperature throughout the basin, and other effects induced by climate change. The limited availability of representative and compatible input data, combined with uncertainties in meteorological forcing data, empirical parameters, initial conditions, and structural errors resulting from simplifications, leads to an incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes within the basin.

In this study, we propose a Data Assimilation (DA) framework to improve hydrological simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model within the Ganges River Basin. The DA is formulated to use the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) as its merger and satellite-based daily Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) data as observations. Uncertainties in meteorological inputs, such as precipitation and temperature, and model parameters are utilized to generate ensemble spreads, leading to a representative estimation of model uncertainty. Numerical evaluations are performed to examine the influence of this daily SSM DA on sub-monthly, monthly, seasonal, and multi-year variations of the key model outputs, including evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and base-flow. The findings aim to support the development of a satellite-fed hydrological system for the Ganges that further strengthens water management and reduces disaster risks.

Keywords: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), Surface Soil Moisture (SSM), Data Assimilation (DA), Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)

How to cite: Tiwari, S., Forootan, E., Nikam, B. R., and Schumacher, M.: Improving Hydrological Process Representation in the Ganges River Basin Using a Data-Assimilation Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15446, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15446, 2025.

In many regions, including Southeast Asia, meteorological observation networks remain underdeveloped. While existing satellite rainfall products demonstrate a certain level of accuracy at the macroscale, their accuracy at the watershed scale remains insufficient. This study aims to propose an algorithm that applies deep learning to IR data obtained from Himawari meteorological satellite observations to estimate rainfall with quantitative accuracy at the watershed scale, contributing to predictions of water-related disasters.

The objective of this research is to optimize a deep learning model using meteorological observation data available in abundance in Japan and subsequently apply it to Southeast Asia. The input data consists of IR images from multiple wavelength bands provided by the geostationary meteorological satellites Himawari-8 and 9, as well as elevation data.

The estimated rainfall in the Japanese region, where parameter optimization did not conduct, was evaluated across various watershed scales. As a result, the model outperformed GSMaP in watersheds with areas ranging from approximately 100 km² to 3000 km². Additionally, in tributary watersheds with areas under 100 km², the model was able to qualitatively replicate observed rainfall.

How to cite: Fujimoto, K. and Tebakari, T.: Development of a new satellite rainfall product HiDRED (Himawari Data Rainfall Estimation using Deep learning) and a fundamental study on its applicability to hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17181, 2025.

In many peri urban areas of Africa, vegetable and fruits crops are expanding rapidly thanks to a fast growing market and an attractive profitability for farmers. These productions mainly grown in off season need irrigation, and water availability is then the main limiting factor of their development. In Burkina Faso a very large number of small scale dams have been built since the dry spells of years 1980 to store surface water and support irrigation. Question arise about the environmental and productive impacts of these dams as many seem under utilized. Groundwater, combined with the multiplication of individual wells and recent availability of solar powered-pumps is increasingly used for irrigation and seems a major alternative source of water. This study focuses on the off season (November – May) cropping conditions of 4 main sites of the Ouagadougou vegetable gardening belt, with comparison of two situations of farmer led development: (i) an area surrounding a small reservoir/dam, (ii) an area of lowland without reservoir. A remote sensing analysis combining a very high spatial resolution coverage (Pléiades, 0.5 m) and Sentinel 2 time series (5 days revisit frequency at 10 m spatial resolution)  is performed for mapping irrigated crop area and its monthly temporal dynamics allowing the identification of multiple crop cycles during the dry season. Coupled with climatic water balance data and remotely sensed detection of surface water availability upstream of dams, this analysis highlights the role of small dams and individual wells on groundwater availabilty and extension of the cropping period.

How to cite: Fusillier, J.-L., Lebourgeois, V., Madec, S., Poda, R., and Barbier, B.: Satellite monitoring of the spatio-temporal dynamics of irrigated market garden crops in relation to collective and individual water hydraulic development : Case study of the Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) vegetable gardening belt , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21742, 2025.

EGU25-810 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Mapping field-scale crop water stress for wheat using satellite remote sensing data by formulating lower baseline using a novel approach 

Manoj Yadav, Likhit Muni Narakala, Sriyodh Chinthamaneni, and Hitesh Upreti

The quantification of crop water stress is very crucial for efficient irrigation water management and sustainable agriculture. The empirically derived crop water stress index (CWSI) is a widely used method for quantifying the crop water status. However, developing lower baseline is a prerequisite for estimating the crop water stress using the empirical approach. Traditionally, the lower baseline is formulated by taking in-situ observations of a well-watered crop canopy using infrared radiometers. In this study, a novel methodology is formulated for estimating the lower baseline using land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for the wheat crops using Landsat-8, Landsat-9 and Sentinel-2 satellite data. This study is conducted during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 wheat crop seasons, covering approximately 630 acres of agricultural fields, managed by local farmers in the western part of Uttar Pradesh, India. The entire analysis is conducted on Google Earth Engine.  Initially, multi-temporal image classification is performed, employing the synergetic use of Sentinel-2 and machine learning algorithms, to distinguish the wheat and non-wheat fields. The manually collected ground truth data are used to train and test the random forest model. Subsequently, the candidate pixels are selected based on the maximum NDVI range, from (NDVImax - 0.1) to NDVImax, which represents dense and healthy wheat patches. These candidate pixels are further refined by selecting the pixels having less than 10th percentile of the LST values, which account for relatively higher evapotranspiration. The lower baseline is derived using LST values of the refined candidate pixels along with concurrent air temperature (Ta) and relative humidity measurements recorded by an automatic weather station.  Finally, CWSI is mapped for the study area using the empirical approach.

Classification accuracy of 96% and 95% was achieved for the classification of wheat and non-wheat fields during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, respectively, with corresponding Kappa coefficients of 0.85 and 0.80. For the classified wheat pixels, the lower baseline equation formulated by the proposed methodology are (LST – Ta) = -1.864VPD + 1.325 for 2021-22 season and (LST – Ta) = -4.92VPD + 3.14 for 2022-23 season, where VPD is vapour pressure deficit. The fixed upper baseline of (LST – Ta) = 4°C is taken for empirically deriving and mapping CWSI for both seasons. The minimum and maximum values of the CWSI ranged from 0 to 0.89 during the 2021-22 season and from 0 to 0.78 during the 2022-23 season. The 2021-22 cropping season observed increased CWSI values as compared to 2022-23, primarily due to the heatwave that occurred in the study area from during the latter part of the 2021-22crop season. Significant spatial and temporal variability is obtained in the CWSI values within the study area.  The results suggest that the proposed methodology can be effectively used for mapping crop water stress at field scale without the requirement of tedious in-situ canopy temperature observations.

How to cite: Yadav, M., Narakala, L. M., Chinthamaneni, S., and Upreti, H.: Mapping field-scale crop water stress for wheat using satellite remote sensing data by formulating lower baseline using a novel approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-810, 2025.

EGU25-8175 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Interferometric radar satellite and in-situ well time-series reveal groundwater extraction rate changes in urban and rural Afghanistan 

Najibullah Kakar, Sabrina Metzger, Tilo Schöne, Mahdi Motagh, Hamidullah Waizy, Nasir Ahmad Nasrat, Milan Lazecky, Falk Amelung, and Bodo Bookhagen

Population growth, climate change, and a lack of infrastructure have increased water demand and groundwater exploitation in urban and rural Afghanistan, resulting in significant ground subsidence in various regions. 

Using Sentinel-1 radar-interferometric time-series data based on over 7-years (2015-2022), we assess country-wide Afghan subsidence rates for groundwater levels, precipitation, and changes in irrigation practices. Urban Kabul city and the growing agricultural sector of rural Ghazni provinces are of particular focus. In Kabul city, we compare spatiotemporal subsidence patterns to water table heights and precipitation amounts. In Ghazni, we monitored the transition from ancient to modern irrigation techniques by mapping solar-panel arrays as a proxy for electrical water pumping and evaluating the vegetation index as a proxy for agricultural activity.

Several provinces in Afghanistan such as Kabul, Ghazni, Helmand, Farah, Baghlan, and Kunduz exhibit significant subsidence of more than ~5 ± 0.1 cm/yr. In Kabul, ground subsidence is most pronounced in the city center with a 6-yr total of 31.2 ± 0.5 cm, but it’s the peripheral wells of the Kabul basin that exhibit the highest water-table drops, where aquifers are also thinner and wells are deeper. In Ghazni, a 7-yr total of 77.8 ± 0.5 cm ground subsidence was recorded. Before 2018 barren lands were transformed into farmland throughout the province, and traditional irrigation such as Kariz networks were replaced by electrical water pumps to tap groundwater, which enabled the conversion of barren land into farmland and marked the acceleration of ground subsidence after 2018. In addition severe droughts in 2020 and 2021 further exacerbated groundwater depletion, leading to m-wide and km-long desiccation cracks that appeared in the area with the highest irrigation volume and ground subsidence.

How to cite: Kakar, N., Metzger, S., Schöne, T., Motagh, M., Waizy, H., Nasrat, N. A., Lazecky, M., Amelung, F., and Bookhagen, B.: Interferometric radar satellite and in-situ well time-series reveal groundwater extraction rate changes in urban and rural Afghanistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8175, 2025.

EGU25-8550 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Regional Agricultural water productivity Monitoring for Climate Change Adaptation 

Angura Louis, Fehér Zsolt, Tamás János, and Nagy Attila

Agricultural Water scarcity, amplified by climate change, poses a great challenge to global agricultural productivity and sustainability. This study explores a new indicator to monitor regional crop water productivity in agricultural systems. Using a combination of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, and ground observations, we assess spatiotemporal trends in water productivity across an agricultural production regional scale .The water productivity indicator (CWPSM ) was computed as a ratio of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to volumetric soil moisture content at 30cm and 60cm soil depths respectively and compared against a benchmark water productivity indictor ( CWPEC) computed as a ratio of Gross primary productivity (GPP)  to Evapotranspiration (ET). Our research findings highlight a consistent strong positive correlation and alignment of CWPSM at 30 cm, CWPSM at 60 cm and CWPEC trends over time with however CWPSM at 60 cm demonstrating superior accuracy and reliability compared to CWPSM at 30 cm as a proxy for CWPEC. The results highlight the importance of ensuring that water reaches deeper layers to at least 60 cm depth during irrigation due to the stability of soil moisture, observed at this depth.

By providing actionable insights, the study contributes to achieving sustainable development goals of climate action, ending hunger and underscoring the importance of monitoring crop water productivity in addressing water management challenges in agricultural production

This research was funded by Szechenyi Plan Plus Program under the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project. We gratefully acknowledge their tremendous support and contributions to the research.

How to cite: Louis, A., Zsolt, F., János, T., and Attila, N.: Regional Agricultural water productivity Monitoring for Climate Change Adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8550, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8550, 2025.

EGU25-11344 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Improved floodplain modelling with FABDEM and Sentinel-2 earth observations in the middle valley of the Senegal River 

Issa Leye, Andrew Ogilvie, Soussou Sambou, and Didier Martin

In the alluvial plains of large rivers, the study of flood dynamics is essential to appreciate water resource variations and preserve associated ecosystem services, in particular biodiversity, groundwater recharge and flood-recession agriculture. Hydraulic modelling provides valuable opportunities to simulate the dynamics of surface water flows but are challenged by the very flat topography and the sparse field observations, especially in Africa. By combining advances in earth observations (Digital Elevation Models and Sentinel-2 surface water areas), field observations (stage, flow gauging, river profiles) and hydraulic modelling (HEC-RAS), we aim to improve the understanding of surface water dynamics in the Senegal River floodplain. In this region, flood-recession agriculture is a complementary activity to irrigated agriculture and plays an important role in the subsistence of local populations.

Recent, open-access DEMs (AW3D, COPDEM, FABDEM, NASADEM, SRTM, TanDEM) were compared against field observations revealing the superior performance of FABDEM (RMSE = 0.58). FABDEM was then pre-processed to recondition the elevations of the river bed based on field river profiles. The HEC-RAS model was calibrated to simulate the flow propagation from the Bakel to Diama over the period 2017-2020 and to accurately map flood-prone areas detected on Sentinel-2 imagery at the scale of individual depressions and the whole floodplain. Results show that the model reproduces flood dynamics with good accuracy, with KGE on water levels reaching 0.78 at Bakel and 0.65 at Matam gauging stations. The model also enabled the 2D representation of flooded areas, providing the first accurate representation of inundated areas in this floodplain, and their variations under climatic and dam construction scenarios. The excellent performance obtained with FABDEM highlights the enhanced opportunities it extends to develop hydraulic models of complex, poorly gauged floodplains, and support the management of water resources.

Key words: Floodplain, HEC-RAS, remote sensing, hydraulic modelling, Senegal River, Middle valley.

How to cite: Leye, I., Ogilvie, A., Sambou, S., and Martin, D.: Improved floodplain modelling with FABDEM and Sentinel-2 earth observations in the middle valley of the Senegal River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11344, 2025.

EGU25-11981 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Data-Driven Modelling of Lake Water Quality Response to Catchment Dynamics 

Zhenyu Tan, Stefan Simis, and Mark Warren

The water quality of lakes and reservoirs is influenced by atmospheric and land-use pressures, requiring actionable insights for effective management. Given the unique nature of each water body, data-driven modelling provides a practical solution for identifying sensitivities to these pressures, circumventing the complexity of hydrological-biogeochemical models. Remote sensing technologies offer consistent, multi-temporal, and multi-scale water quality monitoring, while global weather forecasting models enable predictions of key environmental parameters. Integrating these datasets facilitates a systematic examination of catchment-to-lake dynamics.

This study introduces a unified approach to modelling relationships between satellite-derived water quality metrics, such as Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration and turbidity, and meteorological drivers influencing catchments. Using multivariate autoregressive models, we aim to identify the influence of environmental factors on water quality variations, and  determine which sub-basins exert the greatest influence on lake dynamics. This approach supports short-term predictions of water quality changes. Ultimately, we anticipate that the data-driven models can be used to predict short-term water quality changes

The study focuses on small and medium-sized lakes and reservoirs in the United Kingdom, using Sentinel-2 MSI observations for high-resolution water quality datasets. ERA5-Land hourly reanalysis data provided meteorological variables influencing water quality, including wind, lake mixed-layer temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and runoff. Both datasets were aggregated into five-day time series to address observation intervals caused by orbital patterns and cloud cover. Aggregated data were normalized and stabilized to account for variable magnitudes before being input into autoregressive models.

Vector Autoregression (VAR) was used to assess long-term environmental influences on water quality, leveraging Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The reliance of VAR models on historical data enabled analysis of prolonged effects, with optimal four-time lags. In contrast, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) incorporated contemporary meteorological inputs, allowing for short-term impact analysis. ARIMAX models also enabled near-term water quality predictions using forecasted meteorological variables. At the sub-basin level, models were evaluated using the Fréchet distance, which quantifies the similarity between time-series curves. By comparing Fréchet distances across sub-basins, the relative contributions of each sub-basin to lake water quality variations were determined.

Our findings suggest that: 1) VAR models explained the temporal variability in lake water quality variables with a strong fitness (R2 > 0.82 for Chl-a and R2 > 0.69 for turbidity); 2) VAR models relied heavily on the lake water quality inputs from priors with optimal four time lags. The first lag contributed the most, with a mean weight of 0.61 (σ = 0.45) for Chl-a concentration and 0.71 (σ = 0.46) for turbidity; 3) Catchment drivers exhibited weights up to 2.3% at the second time horizon, with their influence increasing over time, while the contribution from water quality observations decreased; 4) ARIMAX models demonstrated high accuracy in simulating lake water quality variations (R2 > 0.83 for Chl-a and R2 > 0.68 for turbidity), showing promise for future water quality predictions.

How to cite: Tan, Z., Simis, S., and Warren, M.: Data-Driven Modelling of Lake Water Quality Response to Catchment Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11981, 2025.

In a global warming and climate change context, populations all over the world are impacted by an increasing number of hydrological crisis (flood events, droughts, ...), mainly related to the lack of knowledge and monitoring of the surrounding water bodies. In Europe, flood risk accounts for 46% of the extreme hazards recorded over the last 5 years and current events confirm these figures. Although the main rivers are properly monitored, a wide set of small rivers contributing to flood events are not monitored at all. There is a clear lack of river basins monitoring regarding the rapid increase of extreme events. Moreover, hydrological surveys are currently insured by heterogeneous means from a country to another and even inside a country, from a region to another. It results in a high-cost level to deploy a robust, relevant, and efficient monitoring of all watercourses at risks. Therefore, there is a real need for affordable, flexible, and innovative solutions for measuring and monitoring hydrological areas to address climate change and flood risk within the water big cycle. 

 VorteX.io aims to provide an innovative and intelligent service for monitoring hydrological surfaces, using easy-to-install and fixed in-situ instruments, based on compact light-weight device inspired from satellite technology: the micro-stations. From a technical point of view, vorteX-io micro stations are designed like remote sensing nanosatellites that do not fly, but are installed above watercourses (i.e., under a bridge). Onboard remote sensing instruments (lidar, thermal and multispectral camera, GNSS) allow them to remotely and in real-time measure water temperature, provide contextual images and hydro-meteorological parameters (water surface height, water surface velocity, rain rates). Water parameters are transferred in real-time through GSM or SpaceIOT networks.  The technology has been entirely designed and patented by vorteX-io.

The combination of these in-situ data with satellite measurements is thus optimal for downstream services related to water resources management and assessment of flood/drought risks: calibration, validation and accuracy assessment of EO projects in space hydrology. The vorteX-io technology is selected by ESA for Sentinel-3 Altimetry CalVal for inland waters: installation of stations under the track and synchronization of in-situ acquisition with the passage of the satellite to operationally provide Fiducial Reference Measurements (FRMs). In addition, vorteX-io is involved in the definition of future inland water FRMs for the upcoming CRISTAL mission and also on the ESA DTE for hydrology. 

In June 2023, the European Innovation Council awarded the company to deploy 1000 micro-stations in France and Croatia

In June 2024, vorteX-io has completed a funding round, which notably includes Caisse des Dépôts (CdC represent a major public financial institution in France) and CNES as shareholders. This funding will specifically facilitate the continued deployment of the constellation across Europe.

The long-term vision is to cover river basins in Europe with an in-situ network, to be used at large scale as earth-observation in situ component either for monitoring water quality parameters or for extreme hazards monitoring such as floods and drought

How to cite: Gachelin, J. P. and Poisson, J. C.: Development of a new remote sensing device to be used at large scale as earth-observation in situ component, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12071, 2025.

EGU25-12476 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Small agricultural reservoirs detection with satellite data and OpenStreetMap integration for sustainable water management: a contribution to the CASTLE project. 

Noemi Mannucci, Gabriele Bertoli, Marco Lompi, Tommaso Pacetti, Mehdi Sheikh Goodarzi, Patrick Ebel, Davide Danilo Chiarelli, Margherita Azzari, and Enrica Caporali

Meteorological unpredictability, exacerbated by severe events caused by climate change, poses significant problems for water resource management (IPCC, 2023). Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of droughts, especially in mid-latitude regions, where reduced precipitation coupled with rising temperatures is expected to exacerbate water scarcity (https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2). In this regard, Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmARs) offer a strategic response, as they are designed to collect and store water for use in irrigation and other agricultural applications. This is the context in which the research activity described here is developed, contributing to the research project CASTLE - Creating Agricultural reSilience Through smaLl rEservoirs.

Despite their importance, the lack of comprehensive national databases for SmARs remains a major obstacle to their efficient management. Prior to this study, for example only eight of Italy's twenty regions had SmARs inventories, often based on non-standardised and incomparable approaches (https://indicatoriambientali.isprambiente.it/it/pericolosita-sismica/invasi-artificiali). This fragmentation of information makes the analysis and management of SmARs challenging. A possible option to overcome this problem is represented by satellite data, which provides accurate and continuous information over large geographical areas. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery - part of the European Space Agency's Copernicus programme - was particularly well suited to this study.

The objective of this research was to develop a methodology for detecting Small Agricultural Reservoirs from satellite imagery with integration of OpenStreetMap (OSM) and the ESA World Cover 2021 dataset and creating a comprehensive inventory of the existing reservoirs in Italy. The system was validated in Tuscany with the use of the ground truth database of LaMMA - CNR IBIMET (https://geoportale.lamma.rete.toscana.it/difesa_suolo/#/viewer/372).

Integration with OSM helped eliminate false positives such as ponds, glaciers, large dams, rivers, and canals, which spectral indices alone cannot distinguish from SmARs due to their similar reflectance characteristics, as they are also water surfaces. The ESA World Cover data were used to exclude urbanized areas, which were irrelevant to this study. 

The combined use of open-source data has enabled the development of a replicable methodology adaptable to various spatial scales, considerably enhancing the identification and mapping of SmARs. This strategy will help to manage agricultural water resources more efficiently and increase resilience to climate change.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was carried out within the CASTLE project and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.1 – D.D. n. 104 02/02/2022 PRIN 2022 project code MUR 2022XSERL4 - CUP  B53D23007590006).

.

How to cite: Mannucci, N., Bertoli, G., Lompi, M., Pacetti, T., Goodarzi, M. S., Ebel, P., Chiarelli, D. D., Azzari, M., and Caporali, E.: Small agricultural reservoirs detection with satellite data and OpenStreetMap integration for sustainable water management: a contribution to the CASTLE project., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12476, 2025.

EGU25-14387 | PICO | HS6.9

Regression-based surface water fraction mapping using a synthetic spectral library for monitoring small water bodies 

Yalan Wang, Giles Foody, Xiaodong Li, Yihang Zhang, Pu Zhou, and Yun Du

Small water bodies (SWBs), such as ponds and on-farm reservoirs, play a crucial role in agriculture irrigation, carbon storage, and biogeochemical cycle. Medium-spatial-resolution satellite imagery such as Sentinel-2 imagery has been widely promoted to monitor SWBs, due to its relatively fine spatial and temporal resolution. However, the small size and diverse spectral characteristics of SWBs present significant challenges, particularly the mixed-pixel problem, where both water and land classes contribute to the observed spectral response of the image pixel. To address this issue, we propose a novel regression-based surface water fraction mapping method (RSWFM) that leverages a random forest regression model and a synthetic spectral library to generate 10 m spatial resolution surface water fraction maps from Sentinel-2 imagery. RSWFM incorporates a compact set of endmembers, representing water, vegetation, impervious surfaces, and soil, to simulate a spectral library using both linear and nonlinear mixture models, while accounting for spectral variability across diverse SWBs. Additionally, to enlarge the number of pure spectra and enhance their representativeness for training, RSWFM applies data augmentation based on Gaussian noise. The performance of RSWFM was assessed across ten study sites with hundreds to thousands of SWBs smaller than 1 ha and was compared with fully constrained least squares (FCLS) linear spectral mixture analysis, multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), and random forest (RF) regression without data augmentation. Results indicated that RSWFM generates a low root mean square error (RMSE) of less than 0.09, reducing by approximately 30%, 15%, and 11% compared to FCLS, MESMA, and nonlinear RF regression without data augmentation, respectively. Furthermore, RSWFM achieves an R² of approximately 0.85 in estimating the area of SWBs smaller than 1 ha. This study demonstrates the potential of RSWFM for addressing the mixed pixel problem in SWB monitoring across large areas.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Foody, G., Li, X., Zhang, Y., Zhou, P., and Du, Y.: Regression-based surface water fraction mapping using a synthetic spectral library for monitoring small water bodies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14387, 2025.

EGU25-15594 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Delineating small water bodies in Pune City India using Machine Leaning in Google Earth Engine 

Shobhit Choubey, Saidutta Mohanty, and Chandranath Chatterjee

Freshwater is a valuable and scarce resource under constant threat due to global climate uncertainties, population growth, and economic expansion. Mapping water bodies can be useful in effective water resources management. The present study was an effort towards mapping inland water body and identifying areas suitable for water conservation in the Pune city of the Upper Bhima River Basin. In this study, land cover classification was performed using machine learning in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to identify water and non-water pixels to delineate small water bodies. Three machine learning models, namely Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Tree Boost (GTB), were compared for their efficacy in mapping the water bodies. An open-source high-resolution multi-spectral image (MSI) information from Copernicus Sentinel-2 Level 2A harmonised data was used to generate a water body map. The classification models were further compared with the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) thresholding method, which distinguishes water regions based on the reflectance difference between the Short Wave Infra-Red (SWIR) band and the Green band. As the study area covered a diversified spectral signature of land use and land cover, the analysis was performed under three scenarios. In scenario 1, the ML model was trained and validated using hilly and built-up region data, in scenario 2 agricultural and built-up areas were considered and in scenario 3 all three regions were covered. Results showed that the SVM model performed more accurately and detected the maximum area of water bodies followed by RF, GTB and MNDWI threshold methods. Moreover, scenario 3 which considers the entire dataset ranging from hilly, built-up and agricultural regions is the most robust analysis to perform water body mapping. Finally, the SVM model considering scenario 3, was used to detect the small water bodies for the entire catchment. In total, 20,479 water bodies were identified by the SVM model covering 279.42 sq.km area. Furthermore, river networks were removed from the classification, which resulted in a total of 17,616 small water bodies with an area of 243.97 sq.km. As this analysis was performed using Sentinel-2A data which has spatial resolution of 10 meters, ML models and MNDWI method cannot estimate water bodies smaller than 100 sq. meters. The water body map can be useful for water resources planning in the study area.

Keywords: Google Earth Engine, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Tree Boost and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index.

How to cite: Choubey, S., Mohanty, S., and Chatterjee, C.: Delineating small water bodies in Pune City India using Machine Leaning in Google Earth Engine, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15594, 2025.

EGU25-15643 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Remote sensing of ferric iron in inland surface waters 

Marit van Oostende and Ype van der Velde

Iron concentrations in inland waters play an important role in nutrient cycling and water quality, particularly through their interaction with phosphorus, a key driver of eutrophication. Both excessive and insufficient ferric iron (Fe³⁺) levels can disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Insufficient Fe³⁺ availability hampers primary productivity, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem structure. Conversely, elevated levels of Fe³⁺ in water can pose risks to human and ecosystem health.

In Dutch agricultural-dominated lowland catchments, ferric iron-bound phosphorus is the main form of phosphorus in suspended particulate matter, potentially driving rapid transformation of dissolved phosphorus in groundwater to phosphorus in surface water. Groundwater seepage, rich in ferrous iron (Fe²⁺), further contributes to these dynamics, with Fe²⁺ oxidizing to Fe³⁺ upon exposure to oxygen, forming hydroxides that bind phosphorus. Seasonal hydrological changes also influence these interactions, with distinct red colouring observed in Dutch waters during winter attributed to iron oxidation under reduced biological activity.

A novel method using Sentinel-2 MSI data and machine learning has been developed to estimate and monitor the optically active Fe³⁺ concentration levels across Dutch surface waters in autumn and winter with a high spatial resolution (10 m). The model incorporates predictors including spectral band ratios, spectral band slopes, spectral band derivatives, and environmental variables such as air temperature and cumulative rainfall, derived from in situ data. It was trained on ~2,000 in situ iron measurements collected between 2015 and 2023.

Until now, research on Fe³⁺ in water using satellite data has been limited. This study provides a detailed spatiotemporal perspective on iron dynamics in the Netherlands, advancing the monitoring and management possibilities of water quality and ecosystem health.

How to cite: van Oostende, M. and van der Velde, Y.: Remote sensing of ferric iron in inland surface waters, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15643, 2025.

EGU25-18138 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Agricultural Drought Assessment Using Remote Sensing Technologies: A Case Study in Souss Massa Region 

Sara Merzoug, Zine El Abidine El morjani, Youssef Es-saady, and Mohamed El hajji

Agricultural Drought presents a significant risk to food security, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where crop production is highly dependent on irrigation and annual rainfall. Therefore, this research was conducted in Souss Massa region, a semi-arid region relying on agricultural production for its economy to develop drought early warning studies in this region. This study aims to assess the agricultural drought and its associated impacts, as accurate identification is crucial for effectively minimizing its negative impacts. In this work, we evaluate various Remote Sensing-based indices to create a composite drought index with distinct severity classes (No Drought, Moderate Drought, Severe Drought, Extreme Drought). This approach enables the identification and mapping of drought-affected areas. These findings provide valuable insights into the potential of remote sensing for drought monitoring and contribute to development of effective drought management strategies in Souss Massa region.

How to cite: Merzoug, S., El morjani, Z. E. A., Es-saady, Y., and El hajji, M.: Agricultural Drought Assessment Using Remote Sensing Technologies: A Case Study in Souss Massa Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18138, 2025.

Lake thermal dynamics provide critical insights into regional and global climate change, and play a regulatory role in lake biogeochemical cycles. In situ measurements, remote sensing, and hydrodynamic modelling are key sources for monitoring lake temperature. In situ data are essential for calibration and validation (cal/val) of satellite products and numerical models, but are often scarce or irregular for many lakes. Additionally, data assimilation of lake surface water temperature (LSWT) products can improve numerical models. Satellite thermal imagery has been widely used for LSWT monitoring at regional and global scales. However, current operational LSWT services are limited to 1 km resolution, thereby excluding small lakes. High-resolution, high-revisit Earth observation missions, such as ECOSTRESS, LSTM, TRISHNA, and SBG, extend LSWT services to smaller lakes, but require dedicated cal/val efforts due to their unique radiometric and geometric properties. Collecting reliable skin temperature and ancillary datasets across diverse lakes and optimizing LSWT retrieval algorithms is thus urgently needed.

Our research, within the ESA-funded TRISHNA – Science and Electronics Contribution (T-SEC) project, focuses on validating and improving high-resolution LSWT products, and openly publishing final products for lakes in the Alpine region. We operate automated reference stations in four Swiss lakes: Lake Geneva, Lake Aegeri, Lago Bianco, and Greifensee. These lakes comprise a variety of morphological, bio-physical, and meteorological features, and are located along an elevation gradient in pre-, sub-, and high-alpine environments. Skin, sky, and bulk temperatures, as well as meteorological data are available for all sites. We evaluated Landsat 7/8/9 LSWT products from USGS Collection-2 Level-2 data and the single-band Acolite-TACT algorithm. Our matchup comparisons yielded a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of < 1.2 °C, a Mean Bias Error (MBE) < 0.1 °C and a correlation coefficient (R2) of > 0.94. However, official Level-2 ECOSTRESS data showed weaker performance (MAE > 2.4 °C, MBE < -2 °C, and R2 < 0.85), highlighting the need for further cal/val and algorithm refinements, particularly for emissivity corrections.

Landsat validated algorithms are used for operational monitoring via AlpLakes web platform (www.alplakes.eawag.ch), which integrates satellite data, in situ measurements, and hydrodynamic models. AlpLakes’ scalable design enables rapid integration of new lakes and products. For example, we aim to disseminate our tools across lakes in the Alpine region under the EU Interreg AlpineSpace project DiMark (https://www.alpine-space.eu/project/dimark/). This pipeline will also facilitate the adoption of upcoming missions and timely dissemination of validated products. Ultimately, our research and datasets will support lake monitoring and modelling activities in Switzerland and beyond. Moreover, integrating satellite data, hydrodynamic models, and in situ measurements (e.g., assimilating LSWT products into existing models) will enhance understanding of short-term events and long-term trends in lakes, fostering interdisciplinary research and providing deeper insights into underlying bio-physical processes.

How to cite: Irani Rahaghi, A., Odermatt, D., and Naegeli, K.: Advancing Alpine lake monitoring and modelling through calibration, validation, and dissemination of high-resolution thermal remote sensing products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18287, 2025.

EGU25-19245 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9 | Highlight

Integrating satellite observations to enhance reservoir monitoring: a case study facing the emergency shortage of fresh water in Bogotá, Colombia 

Camilo Sanabria-Morera, David Zamora, and Sebastian Palomino-Ángel

Colombia, with a water surface of approximately 831,163.7 hectares distributed in swamps, reservoirs, lagoons and marshes, faces significant challenges in monitoring the status of its lentic water bodies. The lack of information places the country in a disadvantageous position for managing its water-related ecosystems. For instance, quantifying water resources and reporting on international initiatives such as SDGs requires implementing robust monitoring systems to track progress on several objectives and indicators (e.g., SDG indicator 6.6.1, "Change in the extent of water-related ecosystems over time"). Moreover, monitoring is crucial for decision-making under extreme hydrometeorological phenomena and climate change.

Bogotá, Colombia’s capital city, is the sixth most populated capital in Latin America, where domestic water demand, flow regulation, and energy generation are supplied by a set of reservoirs located inside and outside the basin where the capital is located. The in-situ monitoring of these bodies of water faces technical, logistical, and economic difficulties, such as high installation costs, low availability of measuring stations, vandalism, and restricted access to data captured by some organizations. These difficulties hinder efficient management and informed decision-making.

Since mid-2024, Bogotá has been experiencing one of its most challenging water shortage emergencies in recent history due to the "El Niño" phenomenon that has brought reservoir levels to critical conditions. This situation has generated the need to explore new sources of hydrological data that complement on-site observations and enable the inclusion of other actors in water management decisions for this region. Satellite data emerges as a viable solution to complement gauge observations. However, consistent assessments of the accuracy of these measurements at the local level are required for this purpose. This study evaluates observations from different types of satellite data to obtain hydrological measurements in high mountain reservoirs and lakes of Bogotá's water supply system. The data assessed includes observations from the Sentinel-3 radar altimeter to get water level data, and amplitude observations from Sentinel-1 to estimate the surface area of the reservoirs.

The evaluation was initially carried out at the Neusa reservoir with daily water level measurements. Data from January 2019 to December 2020 were used for validation. Preliminary results show that Sentinel-3 observations provide water level measurements with good accuracy for the evaluated reservoir, achieving an R2 of 0.99 and RMSE of 0.084 meters (n = 24). Observations were obtained with almost monthly periodicity.

The results provide a first assessment of Sentinel-3's potential for monitoring the reservoirs of the city's water supply system, opening new opportunities for integrating different actors in water monitoring. Future research will focus on using Sentinel-1 to obtain reservoir surface area data and integrate these with level observations to calculate changes in reservoir volume. Finally, the analysis is expected to be expanded to other reservoirs and lakes in Bogotá's water supply system.

How to cite: Sanabria-Morera, C., Zamora, D., and Palomino-Ángel, S.: Integrating satellite observations to enhance reservoir monitoring: a case study facing the emergency shortage of fresh water in Bogotá, Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19245, 2025.

EGU25-20477 | ECS | PICO | HS6.9

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Hydrological Models to Remotely Sensed Precipitation in a Transboundary Basin 

paula lady pacheco mollinedo, Frédéric Satgé, Renaud Hostache, Marie-Paule Bonnet, Jorge Molina Carpio, Ramiro Pillco, Edson Ramirez, and Daniel Espinoza

Accurate precipitation data is vital for hydrological modelling, particularly in transboundary basins with scarce hydro-climatic stations. This study evaluates the performance of 20 gridded precipitation products (GPPs), derived from remotely sensed data and reanalyses, in the transboundary Lake Titicaca basin. The methodology integrates two approaches: first, a spatial and temporal accuracy assessment of the GPPs, and second, their application as input data in hydrological models.

For spatial accuracy, annual precipitation maps were generated for each GPP, preserving their native resolution, and compared with gauge-based maps. Temporal accuracy was assessed using Taylor diagrams. To evaluate the impact of GPPs on hydrological modelling, streamflow simulations were performed using the GR4J (lumped) and MGB-IPH (semi-distributed) models for three sub-basins, with model performance assessed through Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE).

Results indicate that CHIRPS, IMERG, and MSWEP excel in spatial and temporal accuracy, capturing the north-to-south precipitation gradient shaped by Andean topography. Streamflow simulations showed that GPPs often outperform gauge-based precipitation in basins with uneven station distribution. In GR4J, MSWEP and CHIRPS yielded the highest KGE values across all sub-basins, while in MGB-IPH, SM2Rain_CCI and IMERG-FR performed best. Notably, the higher KGE scores observed for the GR4J model can be attributed to its lumped structure, which compensates for GPP over/under estimations and spatial distribution inconsistencies.

This comprehensive evaluation demonstrates the potential of remotely sensed precipitation products to address data scarcity in transboundary basins. By improving streamflow simulations, these products support informed water resource management, climate adaptation, and transboundary collaboration.

How to cite: pacheco mollinedo, P. L., Satgé, F., Hostache, R., Bonnet, M.-P., Molina Carpio, J., Pillco, R., Ramirez, E., and Espinoza, D.: Evaluating the Sensitivity of Hydrological Models to Remotely Sensed Precipitation in a Transboundary Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20477, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau is well-known for its expansive wetland environments. Hydric soils, a fundamental component of these environments, exhibit diverse hydraulic characteristics attributable to their varied botanical and mineralogical compositions and their inherent porous structures. Nonetheless, research on the hydraulic properties of such soils in Tibet remains notably underrepresented relative to European and Canadian regions. Consequently, in this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of different equilibrium hydraulic schemes and examines the parameter uncertainty of 14 undisturbed samples collected from four soligenous wetlands. The findings suggest that both the van Genuchten and Kosugi functions, when integrated with the Peters-Iden-Durner model, yield a nearly consistent fit to experimental observations and demonstrate strong identifiability of parameters. This indicates that the Peters-Iden-Durner model can accurately characterize hydraulic properties across the complete moisture range of hydric soils. Analysis of samples with a low clay content and no sphagnum suggests that the intertwined, twisted, and hollow residues of herbaceous vascular tissues do not create a distinct, independent macro-pore system. Therefore, the unimodal scheme integrating the Peters-Iden-Durner model is nearly adequate. However, for samples that exhibit nonmonotonicity of the first-order derivative of the retention curve, such as uncompacted samples containing sphagnum or samples rich in clay, the integration of the Peters-Iden-Durner model into the bimodal scheme boosts accuracy while having almost negligible impact on identifiability. The varied observed hydraulic properties of only 14 samples underscore the necessity for extensive hydric-soil sampling and hydraulic analysis across the expansive and varied wetland landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: Liu, R.: Hydraulic Properties within the Complete Moisture Range of Hydric Soil on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-265, 2025.

EGU25-490 | ECS | Orals | HS6.10

Prediction Air Polution due to Wildfire in Kathmandu Valley: Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques 

Sajesh Kuikel, Saugat Sapkota, Dipesh Kuinkel, Him Kiran Paudel, Khagendra Prasad Joshi, Suresh Marahatta, Deepak Aryal, and Binod Pokharel

The Central Himalaya faces significant air pollution challenges, with nearly half of the days each year in Kathmandu Valley surpassing the PM2.5 national air quality guideline of 40 µg/m³. Wildfire smoke, especially during the pre-monsoon season, is a major contributor to these polluted days in the valley and is also a key driver of air pollution in high-altitude regions of the Himalayas. To identify the presence of wildfire smoke in the valley, we utilized multiple datasets, including in-situ observations, Himawari satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, and satellite imagery. Between 2018 and 2023, we identified 114 days that met our criteria for being classified as smoke days during the pre-monsoon season. Due to the lack of in-situ observation data prior to 2018, we utilized PM2.5 data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), MODIS AOD and wildfire data to classify smoke days for earlier years. Using in total of nine variables, we trained a Random Forest Classifier model on the previously categorized dataset, our model performed with outstanding accuracy (0.91), where AOD in nearby regions (~150km) was found to be the most significant parameter, followed by number of wildfires occured in the past three days. In total, 213 days were classified as wildfire smoke days in Kathmandu Valley from 2003 to 2023, with 2021 recording the highest number of smoke days and 2009 with the highest amout of PM2.5 due to the smoke. Additionally, these wildfire smoke days do not folow any trend but were strongly correlated with wildfire occurrences in nearby regions. The Machine Learning model further highlighted the high correlation between wildfire numbers in surrounding areas and the presence of high air pollution in the valley. This research contributes to policymaking on air pollution and enhances preparedness for extreme pollution events in Kathmandu Valley, ultimately helping to protect public health and well-being.

How to cite: Kuikel, S., Sapkota, S., Kuinkel, D., Paudel, H. K., Joshi, K. P., Marahatta, S., Aryal, D., and Pokharel, B.: Prediction Air Polution due to Wildfire in Kathmandu Valley: Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-490, 2025.

The Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon (YGC) is one of the world's deepest canyons. In this sparsely gauged region, remotely sensed precipitation products can be valuable. A new rain gauge network was installed in the YGC in November 2018, and the observations were utilized to evaluate and calibrate the Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrieval for Global Precipitation Measurements (IMERG) precipitation product. The evaluation results demonstrate that the IMERG data reasonably captured the observed seasonal and diurnal variations in the precipitation but with much weaker seasonal and diurnal variations. IMERG underestimated the total rainfall primarily due to under-detection of rainfall events, with misses being more prevalent than false alarms. IMERG overestimated and underestimated the light and heavy precipitation, respectively, leading to a significant underestimation of the rainfall frequency and intensity at both the daily and monthly scales. The probability of detection decreased with elevation, leading to increased underestimation of rainfall events at higher elevations, and the false alarm ratio was higher in valley sites. In terms of the hit events, IMERG overestimated the light rainfall events and underestimated the heavy rainfall events and the negative bias in the hit events decreased with elevation. The GPCC calibration partially improved the underestimation of GPM, but not sufficient. This study fills the gap in IMERG validation in a complex mountainous region and has implications for users and developers.

How to cite: Chen, X.: Evaluation of the GPM IMERG product in the Yarlung Zsangbo Grand Canyon of the eastern Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1252, 2025.

EGU25-1257 | Posters on site | HS6.10

Vegetation changes in the Hengduan Mountains, China since the Last Glacial Maximum 

Wenying Jiang, Xiaoxiao Yang, and Xiaofang Huang

Mountainous areas experience significant variations in temperature, humidity, and vegetation over short distances, thus mountain ecosystems are particularly sensitive to climate change. The Hengduan Mountains, located to east of the Tibetan Plateau, are characterized by a diverse terrain that includes plateau surfaces, alpines and lake basins. In this study, we present two pollen records from two cores in the Hengduan Mountains. Core YL from Lake Tianchi spans the last 23 ka, while core XMLT-1 from Lake Ximenlongtan covers the last 9.4 ka.

Around Lake Tianchi, the Tsuga dumosa forest zone migrated at least 650 m upward from 23 to ~7 ka, indicating a gradual increase in mean annual temperature exceeding 3.9 °C. In response to this warming, there was a successive colonization of different tree communities: grass and deciduous broadleaved trees dominated from 23 to 15 ka; warm deciduous broadleaved trees prevailed from 15 to 8 ka; and finally, warm coniferous trees (primarily Tsuga dumosa) and subtropical evergreen broadleaved trees dominated from 10 to 5 ka. After 5 ka, there was an increase in deciduous trees and grass, while evergreen trees decreased. Around the Lake Ximenlongtan area, tropical evergreen broadleaved trees dominated from 9.4 to 5 ka. However, after 5 ka, subtropical evergreen trees and grass increased at the expense of tropical evergreen trees.

At both sites, a significant shift in vegetation took place ~5 ka. The concurrent decline of subtropical evergreen trees around Lake Tianchi and tropical evergreen trees around Lake XMLT suggest a notable cooling event in western Yunnan, highlighting a trend toward decreasing monsoon intensity.

 

How to cite: Jiang, W., Yang, X., and Huang, X.: Vegetation changes in the Hengduan Mountains, China since the Last Glacial Maximum, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1257, 2025.

The distribution of water resources in sub-basins across the Western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) is of critical importance due to not only ecological vulnerability resulting from the extremely arid climatology but also the political sensitivities surrounding the international rivers. In this study, we utilize an advanced water vapor tracer (WVT) embedded in the widely used regional climate model – Weather and Research Forecast (WRF), to quantify moisture contributions from four main sources towards precipitation over the WTP region. We also analyze influences on other sub-basins in the TP for comparison purposes. We examine how changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during 2010s compared to 1980s have influenced precipitation patterns and moisture contributions over recent decades. Our findings indicate that terrestrial moisture sources contribute more than oceanic sources towards the endorheic TP region. Recycling processes originating from highlands area are revealed to play a greater role in contributing moisture over WTP compared to those from lowlands areas. Furthermore, our results demonstrate stronger agreements between wetting distribution patterns and distributions of liquid/solid hydrometeors rather than water vapor distribution itself, highlighting condensation/freezing as critical factors. Notably, we observe different responses within Amu Dayra basin compared to the main WTP when subjected to SST changes. This study focuses on delineating distinct roles of terrestrial and oceanic moisture sources in driving precipitation changes over WTP, while specifically emphasizing condensation process’ contribution to inner TP’s precipitation and highlighting moisture transport form oceans’ influence on precipitation patterns over Amu Dayra basin. 

How to cite: Gao, Y.: The influence of moisture on precipitation patterns across the Western Tibetan Plateau , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1862, 2025.

Glaciers are essential for understanding environmental changes, particularly on the vulnerable Tibetan Plateau with its vast low-latitude glacier coverage. Understanding glacial microbiomes and viruses is vital for evaluating ecosystem functions and ecological modeling, especially for the Tibetan Plateau's mountain glaciers, which support approximately 20% of the global population.

From sequencing 85 metagenomes and 883 cultured isolates from 21 Tibetan glaciers, we've developed the Tibetan Glacier Genome and Gene (TG2G) catalog, which represent 968 candidate species spanning 30 phyla. The catalog also contains over 25 million non-redundant protein-encoding genes, the utility of which is demonstrated by the exploration of secondary metabolite biosynthetic potentials, virulence factor identification and global glacier metagenome comparison.

Additionally, we present the Supraglacial Virus Genome (SgVG) catalog, expanding the genomic inventory of 10,840 DNA-virus species from 38 mountain and polar glaciers. These viruses, mainly found in snow, ice, meltwater, and cryoconite, have habitat-specificity and low public health risks. They significantly influence supraglacial microbial communities, with cryoconite hosting the highest viral activity.

How to cite: Liu, Y.: Genomic Insights into Glacial Microbiomes and Viral on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1864, 2025.

EGU25-1927 | ECS | Orals | HS6.10

Automatic extraction of glacial lakes from Landsat imagery using deep learning across the Third Pole region 

Qian Tang, Guoqing Zhang, Tandong Yao, Marc Wieland, Lin Liu, and Saurabh Kaushik

The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings, commonly referred to as the Third Pole region, has the largest ice store outside the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Glacial lakes in the Third Pole region are expanding rapidly as glaciers thin and retreat. The Landsat satellite series is the most popular for mapping glacial lakes, benefiting from long term archived data and suitable spatial resolution (30m since ~1990). However, the homogeneous mapping of high-quality, large-scale, and multi temporal glacial lake inventories using Landsat imagery relies heavily on visual inspection and manual editing due to mountain shadows, wet ice, frozen lakes, and snow cover on lake boundaries, which is time consuming and labour-intensive. Deep learning methods have been applied to glacial lake extraction in the Third Pole and other regions, yet these methods are either concentrated on small test sites without large-scale applications or in polar regions. In this study, several classical deep convolutional neural networks were evaluated, and the DeepLabv3+ with Mobilenetv3 backbone performed best, with a high accuracy of mean intersection over union (mIoU) of 94.8 % and a low loss error of 0.4 %. The proposed method demonstrated robustness in challenging conditions such as mountain shadows, frozen or partially frozen lakes, wet ice and river contact, all without requiring extensive manual correction. Compared with manual delineation, the model’s prediction has a precision rate of 86 %, recall rate of 85 %, and F1-score of 85 %. The area extracted by the model shows a strong correlation with the manual delineation (r2 = 0.97, slope = 0.94) and a high intersection over union (IoU > 0.8) of the predicted areas. A test of large-scale glacial lake mapping based on the developed automated model in 2020 across the Third Pole region shows the robust performance with 29,429 glacial lakes larger than 0.0054 km2 with a total area of ~1779.9 km2 (including non-glacier-fed lakes). The model trained in this study can be fine-tuned for large-scale mapping of glacial lakes in other mountain regions worldwide.

How to cite: Tang, Q., Zhang, G., Yao, T., Wieland, M., Liu, L., and Kaushik, S.: Automatic extraction of glacial lakes from Landsat imagery using deep learning across the Third Pole region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1927, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system, significantly influencing the energy and moisture cycles in the plateau and its surrounding regions. This study uses JRA-55 monthly reanalysis data from 1980 to 2020 and GPCC monthly precipitation data, combined with the Tibetan Plateau Monsoon Index.  This paper focuses on the impact of the summer monsoon over theTibetan Plateau on water transport, such as precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and water budget. The results show that: (1) When the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon is strong (weak), precipitation in the central and eastern parts of the plateau increases (decreases). (2) From the perspective of water vapor transport, when the summer monsoon over the plateau is stronger, there is an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over central India, an anomalous westerly airflow to the south of the plateau, and the water vapor transport over the plateau is primarily dominated by the westerly water vapor transport channel.(3) Analysed in terms of moisture budget, when the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon is strong (weak), moisture inflow at the southern and western boundaries of the plateau increases (decreases), while moisture inflow at the northern boundary decreases (increases), resulting in an increase (decrease) in regional net moisture budget. (4) The impact of the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon on moisture convergence/divergence is mainly driven by the contribution of the wind’s dynamic component, while the thermal component from moisture advection is relatively small.

How to cite: Zhang, H. and Hu, Z.: The characteristics of water vapor transport during the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon in 1980-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2386, 2025.

EGU25-2413 | Orals | HS6.10

Parameter optimizations and future projections of pasture and toxic weeds with the Community Land Model (CLM5) over the Three River Source Region, Tibetan Plateau 

Yaqiong Lu, Xianhong Meng, Jixin Li, Xudong Liu, Lihuang Wang, Mingshan Deng, Yan Yang, Bingtao Liu, and Hui Yu

78% of the Three River Source Region (TRSR) is covered by grassland, understanding future variations in grassland growth is fundamental to ecological barrier security. Many advanced land surface models have incorporated vegetation growth modules, but rarely have current land surface models considered the differential growth of pasture and toxic weeds, which have quite different roles in altering surface energy and water cycles. To represent the different growth for pasture and toxic weeds, we performed a global parameter sensitivity analysis for the Community Land Model (CLM5) based on the eFAST algorithm and calibrated two sets of parameters representing pasture and toxic weeds growth. The previous overestimation of Leaf Area Index and above ground biomass was largely reduced after the parameter optimization. Then we performed future simulations for four Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) during 2015-2100, considering only meteorological impacts and ignoring other future changes (e.g. CO2 or nitrogen deposition). Pasture and toxic weeds biomass (fresh weight) showed a statistically significant increasing trend in all SSPs. This trend was higher for pasture (5.58-22.76 kg·Ha-1·yr-1) than for toxic weeds (2.12-7.44 kg·Ha-1·yr-1), while toxic weeds showed greater interannual variability. Radiation and soil mineral nitrogen became the two main constraints on future grassland greening rather than warming and moisture. The strongest biomass increases in SSP5-8.5 were mainly due to increases in pasture and toxic weeds biomass in the western TRSR. Such spatial differences between indicated that the western TRSR had much greater uncertainties in the future.

How to cite: Lu, Y., Meng, X., Li, J., Liu, X., Wang, L., Deng, M., Yang, Y., Liu, B., and Yu, H.: Parameter optimizations and future projections of pasture and toxic weeds with the Community Land Model (CLM5) over the Three River Source Region, Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2413, 2025.

The summer atmospheric heat source (AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) induces meridional circulations in TP and its surrounding areas. Previous studies mainly focused on the monsoon circulation on the south side of TP, while the formation and maintaining mechanism of meridional circulation on its north side remain unclear. This study compared three calculation methods of the AHS, analyzed spatial-temporal variability of the summer AHS over the TP, and discussed its influence on interannual variability of meridional circulation on the north side of TP based on the two-dimensional decomposition method of atmospheric circulation and sensitivity experiments. The results indicate that in the positive AHS anomalies years, the diabatic heating of condensation latent release in southeastern TP could motivate anomalous ascending motion. Simultaneously, the increased meridional temperature gradient between the middle and high latitudes of East Asia leads to an enhanced southward westerly jet. In this context, the region on the north side of TP, located on the north side of westerly jet entrance, is affected by negative anomalous relative vorticity advection, prevailing anomalous descending motion, which makes the descending branch of meridional circulation significantly presented. Unlike previous studies considered the descending branch of meridional circulation as the compensation for upward flow, the results of LBM model verify the descending branch is mainly influenced by the vorticity advection related to regional scale variability of westerly jet. This study reveals the physical mechanism of meridional circulation on the north side of TP, which offers valuable implications for seasonal forecasting in TP and Northwest China.

How to cite: Luo, H. and Yu, H.: Impact of the summer atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau on interannual variability of meridional circulation on the north side of Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2423, 2025.

Containing elevated topography, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has significant thermodynamic effects for regional environment and climate change, where understanding energy and water exchange processes (EWEP) is an important prerequisite. However, estimation of the exact spatiotemporal variability of the land-atmosphere energy and water exchange over heterogeneous landscape of the TP remains a big challenge for scientific community. Based on the observation, remote sensing, and numerical simulation, the major advances on EWEP over the past 25 years are systematically summarized in this work. All these results advanced the understanding of different aspects of EWEP over the TP by using in situ measurements, multisource satellite data and numerical modeling. Future studies are recommended to focus on the optimization of the current three[1]dimensional comprehensive observation system, the development of applicable parameterization schemes and the investigation of EWEP on weather and climate changes over the TP and surrounding regions.

How to cite: Ma, Y.: Comprehensive study of energy and water exchange over the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2693, 2025.

EGU25-2711 | Posters on site | HS6.10

The eddy covariance based spatial and temporal land-atmosphere turbulent heat and CO2 flux over the Tibetan Plateau 

Binbin Wang, Yaoming Ma, Weiqiang Ma, Xuelong Chen, Cunbo Han, and Zhipeng Xie

Understanding land-atmosphere (LA) interactions through coordinated, multidisciplinary, and multiscale observations is crucial for addressing global challenges such as water resource management, land-use planning, climate change, and ecosystem preservation. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive observation and research platform for LA water, heat, and CO₂ flux exchange over the TP and provide initial insights into the spatial and temporal variations of meteorological conditions, liquid precipitation, and turbulent fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau. Diurnal precipitation patterns reveal three types: peak at night, peak during the day, and bimodal peaks. While liquid precipitation can distinguish between water-limited and energy-limited regions, where soil moisture—both from surface and deeper layers—also plays a key role in surface evapotransporation. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes are near zero at bare ground stations, show significant carbon release in forested areas, and function as carbon sinks in most alpine meadows and alpine steppe sites.

How to cite: Wang, B., Ma, Y., Ma, W., Chen, X., Han, C., and Xie, Z.: The eddy covariance based spatial and temporal land-atmosphere turbulent heat and CO2 flux over the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2711, 2025.

Wind speed spectra analysis is of great importance for understanding boundary layer turbulence characteristics, atmospheric numerical model development, and wind energy assessment. 15-year time series of near-surface horizontal wind data from the national Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes (QOMS) on the north slope of Mt. Everest has been used to investigate the full-scale wind spectrum in the frequency range from about 10 yr-1 to 5 Hz. The annual average wind speed showed almost no detectable trend from 2006 to 2018 at the QOMS station. Three peaks were identified in the full-scale spectra at the frequencies of 1 yr-1, 1 day-1, and 12 hr-1, respectively. The 12 hr-1 peak is evident in spring and summer but disappears in winter, indicating the seasonal differences in local circulations at the QOMS station. The spectral density was the highest on the low-frequency side of the diurnal peak and in the microscale frequency range (f ≥ 1×10-3 Hz) in winter, indicating frequent synoptic weather events and vigorous turbulent intensity generated by shear due to strong wind during winter. An obvious spectral gap around the frequency of 4.5×10-4 Hz was observed in the composite seasonal and daily spectrum in winter, while the spectral gap disappeared in summer. The linear composition of microscale and mesoscale wind spectra also held, and the gap region of the horizontal wind spectrum was modeled very well at the QOMS site.

How to cite: Han, C., Ma, Y., and Ma, W.: Full-scale spectra of 15-year time series of near-surface horizontal wind speed on the north slope of Mt. Everest, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3047, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau region is experiencing increasing runoff and sediment load in its headwater regions driven by the impacts of climate change, such as glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and alterations in precipitation patterns. However, study on the changes in sediment load in the high-altitude Himalayas region remains challenging due to sparse observation data under the harsh climatic and topographic conditions. Recently, remote sensing has emerged as a promising tool in sediment studies, with several applications in the Himalayas; however, high cloud coverage during the high-flow season often leads to underestimation of sediment load. To address this issue, we introduce a remote-sensing approach to supplement the hydrological model calibration process using a less suspended sediment concentration (SSC) to quantify the long-term sediment transport in the Koshi River Basin (KRB). Landsat 8-9 OLI and the Landsat 4-5 TM images were selected to estimate Landsat-SSC with observed SSC data taken from the Chatara gauging station. Then the SWAT model was calibrated using the Landsat-SSC and validated by applying the monthly observed data from both the Chatara and Mulghat gauging stations. After model calibration and validation, the sediment load was simulated for 42 years (1981–2022). Additionally, the partial least squares-structural equation model (PLS-SEM) was used to quantify the complex relationships of sediment regimes with the potential influencing factors including hydro-climatic conditions, topographic variables, vegetation cover, and soil types. Results show that the surface reflectance of visible band combinations (R+G-B) exhibited the highest Pearson correlation with observed SSC data, allowing a power regression equation to estimate SSC from 1987 to 2022. The statistical analysis demonstrates a strong agreement between SWAT-SSC, Landsat-SSC, and Observed-SSC during calibration and validation. The annual sediment load of KRB at Chatara station is estimated at 75 Million tons (Mt) with a significant contribution during the monsoon season. The basin scale sediment load shows a significant increasing trend (p<0.01), with an average rate of 6.97 Mt/10a, which became more pronounced after 2001. PLS-SEM analysis shows that the above-considered potential influencing factors can explain 72% of the total variations, with a significant impact of hydro-climatic conditions (β=0.86, p<0.01) and vegetation cover (β=-0.56, p<0.05). The increasing sediment load in the KRB is primarily due to the strong influence of hydro-climatic changes. The negative influence of land cover changes highlights the buffering effect of increased vegetation cover on sediment export. Above all, by integrating remote sensing with hydrological modeling, this study applied new methods to estimate sediment loads with limited data and subsequently obtained critical insights into the impact of climatic and environmental changes on sediment transport, offering valuable information for soil conservation planning in the data-scarce Himalayan region.

How to cite: Bishwakarma, K., Xiang, Y., and Zeng, C.: Integration of remote sensing and hydrological modeling to estimate a basin-scale sediment transport in the data-scarce Himalaya region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3134, 2025.

EGU25-3668 | Posters on site | HS6.10

Causes of spatial heterogeneity of PFASs in the Nam Co Lake and surrounding runoff on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau 

Lin Peng, Jing Wu, Yifei Yu, Junhong Ma, Tong Wang, Yiru Zhuang, and Zehua Liu

Nam Co Lake, located in the Tibet Plateau region, is the highest and second-largest enclosed salt water lake in China, and is a representative area for the study of long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) and climate change of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs). We analyzed the causes of spatial heterogeneity of 18 PFASs in 17 lake samples, 7 glacial runoff samples, 8 non-glacial runoff samples and 9 sediment samples in or around the Nam Co Lake in 2023. The results showed that the distribution of PFASs in various environmental media around Nam Co Lake can be influenced by glacial melting, salinity, pH, carbon chain length and human activities etc. Due to the melting of glaciers caused by global warming, PFASs deposited in the glaciers over the years flowed into the runoff in large quantities through the meltwater, making the PFAS concentrations in the runoff higher than those in the water of Nam Co Lake. The concentrations of short-chain PFASs in lake water were significantly negatively correlated with pH, possibly because the stronger alkalinity can change the structure and soil chemistry of PFASs and thus reduce their concentration. In contrast to the lake water, there is no significant correlation relationship between the concentration of PFASs in the runoff and the salinity and pH, so the influencing factors of the runoff concentration may be more complex compared to the closed Nam Co Lake, affected by human activities and other factors. The short-chain and long-chain PFASs accounted for the largest and the smallest proportion for both runoff and lake water samples, respectively, while the opposite for sediment samples, indicating that the long-chain PFASs with better hydrophobicity could be easily distributed to sediments. Considering for the irreversible accumulation and aquatic ecotoxicity, the concentrations and partition coefficient of TFA in the water and sediment of Nam Co Lake on the Tibet Plateau were firstly detected and analyzed. The results showed that TFA was the substance with the highest concentration, and the concentration of TFA in lake water, sediment, glacial runoff and non-glacial runoff accounted for 32.09%, 34.39% of ∑PFAS, respectively. Therefore, it was necessary to continuously track the concentration and environmental risk of TFA.

How to cite: Peng, L., Wu, J., Yu, Y., Ma, J., Wang, T., Zhuang, Y., and Liu, Z.: Causes of spatial heterogeneity of PFASs in the Nam Co Lake and surrounding runoff on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3668, 2025.

EGU25-4621 | Orals | HS6.10

Climate Change-Induced Drought and Its Role in Nepal's Forest Fires 

Deepak Aryal and Binod Pokharel

The southern Himalayan slopes are increasingly experiencing dry winters, posing significant challenges to water resources and agriculture. These conditions have intensified forest fires in Nepal, mainly driven by human activities such as unattended campfires, discarded cigarettes, and arson. A warmer and drier climate exacerbates the spread of these fires, causing severe air pollution and accelerating snow and glacier melt due to black carbon deposition in the Himalayas. Recent forest fire events, particularly in 2021 and 2024, were ten times higher than the long-term average, fueled by extended post-monsoon droughts. Climate models (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) project worsening winter droughts, leading to an increased frequency and intensity of forest fires throughout the 21st century. Our study, based on observational, remote sensing, and climate model data, highlights climate variability and climate change-induced droughts as primary drivers of these fires. Projections indicate that persistent droughts will elevate wildfire risks and degrade air quality, posing severe threats to public health, ecosystems, and the economy. This presentation will discuss historical trends and future projections of forest fires, emphasizing their impact on regional air quality, as fire smoke can travel hundreds of kilometers.

How to cite: Aryal, D. and Pokharel, B.: Climate Change-Induced Drought and Its Role in Nepal's Forest Fires, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4621, 2025.

The open-path eddy covariance (OPEC) system is widely employed for direct measurement of CO₂ exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, offering high accuracy in CO₂ observations. However, the performance of OPEC in cold environments, particularly in alpine regions, remains a key topic of research. This study, based on in-situ observations near Lhasa in the central-southern Tibetan Plateau, China (altitude: 3560.8 m), compares CO₂ mixing ratio (Xc) measurements obtained from OPEC and closed-path eddy covariance (CPEC) systems during both cold and warm seasons, with CPEC serving as the benchmark. Our results show that OPEC significantly underestimates Xc during the winter, with average discrepancies of 18.33 ppm and 27.75 ppm across two distinct observational periods. In contrast, during the warm season, Xc measurements from both systems are highly consistent. Further analysis indicates that this underestimation is primarily due to temperature-sensitive biases in the pressure measurements of the OPEC system. To mitigate this issue, we developed a semi-empirical correction model based on air temperature and Xc to adjust the OPEC data. After applying the correction, the adjusted OPEC Xc values align closely with CPEC measurements (y = x - 0.05 and y = x, RMSE = 1.67 and 1.02, at operational temperatures of 30°C and 5°C, respectively). Our findings highlight the importance of correcting OPEC-measured Xc in cold seasons to improve the accuracy of CO₂ concentration measurements in eddy covariance systems.

How to cite: Li, W. and Wang, B.: Analyzer temperature sensitivity leads to an underestimation of CO2 by the open-path eddy covariance system in winter, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5888, 2025.

EGU25-5931 | ECS | Orals | HS6.10

Topographic Influence on SNAO-Driven Summer Precipitation Variability in the Central-Eastern Himalayas 

Qiang Zhang, Xuelong Chen, and Yaoming Ma

Significant progress has been made in understanding the relationship between Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). However, the role of topography on this relationship remains unclear. The central-eastern Himalayas (CEH), a key high-altitude barrier on the southern edge of the TP, experiences concentrated summer rainfall and is a crucial water source. Analysis of long-term observations and reanalysis data revealed that the SNAO-driven positive summer precipitation in the CEH was influenced more by topographic mechanical forcing than by the impacts of atmospheric circulation. Topography forces horizontal winds to generate a strong climb flow component, driving changes in the precipitation distribution. Experiments removing topographic features show that the original positive precipitation distribution shifts into a dipole-like pattern, dominated by negative distribution, which are directly governed by atmospheric circulation. Thus, accurate predictions of future summer precipitation in the CEH should consider both dynamic topographic and atmospheric processes.

How to cite: Zhang, Q., Chen, X., and Ma, Y.: Topographic Influence on SNAO-Driven Summer Precipitation Variability in the Central-Eastern Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5931, 2025.

    The Tibetan Plateau, known as the Earth's largest and highest plateau, functions as a crucial nexus for global atmospheric processes. It exerts a pivotal influence on the hydroclimate dynamics of East Asia. Nevertheless, achieving a comprehensive understanding of historical and recent hydroclimate variations, along with their far-reaching ecological and societal impacts, has proven to be a formidable challenge due to limited observational data and uncertainties in proxy reconstructions. In this study, we have reconstructed the precipitation changes in the eastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years based on tree-ring δ¹⁸O data. This reconstruction emerges as a reliable proxy for precipitation changes in the central and eastern regions of China. Further research found that our precipitation reconstruction of the Tibetan Plateau unveils coherent variations between the Asian monsoon and the Westerlies.

How to cite: Liu, Y.: Hydroclimate variations on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7563, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau, as the source of major rivers in Asia, plays a critical role in influencing the ecological environment, production, and livelihoods both within the region and downstream. Consequently, enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of extreme weather forecasting in this area is of paramount importance. This study introduces a lightning data assimilation scheme that utilizes the Fengyun-4A Lightning Mapping Imager and the Advanced Direction Time Lightning Detection System (ADTD) flash extent density to assign a pseudo-relative humidity between the cloud base and a specific atmospheric layer. This study evaluates the performance of pseudo-relative humidity assimilation for short-term severe weather forecasting over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau. The high impact severe weather event that occurred in Datong, Qinghai on 18 August 2022 is used as a case study to compare the effectiveness of lightning data assimilation with assimilation of ground, sounding and radar data for forecasting deep convection in Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: An, J., Chen, S., and Hu, Z.: Assimilating FY-4A Lightning and Radar Data for Improving Forecasts of a High-Impact Convective Event in the Central-Eastern Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7606, 2025.

To explore the characteristics of evapotranspiration (ET) and its main influencing factors at typical stations across different regions of the Tibetan Plateau, and to deepen the understanding of land-atmosphere interactions and eco-hydrological processes in the region, this study selected four representative stations: Muztagh, Naqu, QOMS, and SETS. Based on long-term observational data and satellite remote sensing, we analyzed the actual evapotranspiration at each station across different temporal scales, along with its correlation with meteorological factors. The results are summarized as follows:(1) Annual Variation: The annual evapotranspiration at Muztagh, Naqu, and SETS showed an increasing trend, while a decreasing trend was observed at QOMS. At Muztagh, annual evapotranspiration was significantly correlated with net radiation, while at SETS, it was significantly positively correlated with temperature. No significant correlation was found between the annual evapotranspiration and any meteorological factor at QOMS or Naqu, suggesting that the changes may be influenced by multiple factors. (2) Monthly Variation: Monthly evapotranspiration at all stations exhibited a unimodal pattern. During the monsoon period, evapotranspiration accounted for 71.45% of the annual total at QOMS, the highest among the four stations, followed by Naqu (66.49%), Muztagh (60.81%), and SETS (55.34%). The factors influencing evapotranspiration varied by station: during the monsoon, Muztagh was influenced by soil moisture and net radiation; Naqu was mainly influenced by soil moisture and temperature; QOMS was affected by precipitation and soil moisture, with precipitation having a stronger influence; and SETS was controlled by net radiation. (3) Diurnal Variation: Diurnal evapotranspiration at all stations exhibited an inverted U-shaped curve during different periods. During the monsoon, the peak diurnal evapotranspiration followed the order: Naqu > SETS > Muztagh > QOMS. In contrast, during the non-monsoon period, the sequence was SETS > Naqu > Muztagh > QOMS. Path analysis revealed that the dominant factors influencing diurnal evapotranspiration varied across stations: at Muztagh, evapotranspiration was primarily influenced by net radiation and soil moisture. At Naqu and QOMS, soil moisture was the dominant factor, while at SETS, temperature was the primary influence, followed by net radiation.

How to cite: Chen, T.: Analysis of Evapotranspiration Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in Different Regions of the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7704, 2025.

The analysis of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by seasonal classification using EOF reveals the existence of a north-south temperature dipole phenomenon in spring, autumn and winter, with spring being the most evident. The spring temperature EOF indicates that there is a thermal dipole between the TP and its high-latitude regions, as confirmed by the correlation analysis curve. This finding suggests the presence of an inverse correlation of temperature between the surface of the TP and its mid and high latitude regions. In this study, we used the ERA5 reanalysis data to preliminary understand the thermodynamic forces of the TP impact the spring temperature dipole at middle and high latitudes. When the Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) is negative, the pressure in the Arctic is high. After the enhanced cold air is transported to the mid-latitude region, it is deposited around 60°N due to the topographic blocking effect of the Tibetan Plateau, and the mid-latitude region is cooled. The decrease of temperature gradient between the northern and mid-latitudes leads to the weakening of Ferrel cell and the weakening of cold air transport to the plateau, warming the plateau. The results will help us to play the role of "climate indicator" on the Tibetan Plateau, and provide certain reference for climate prediction, water resources management, ecological protection, disaster warning and other aspects.

How to cite: Lou, X. and Hu, Z.: The Influence of Mechanical and Thermal Forcing by the Tibetan Plateau on the Spring Temperature Dipole in the Middle and High Latitudes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7719, 2025.

EGU25-8216 | Orals | HS6.10

Lake thermal dynamics and its potential impact on lake ecological system on the Tibetan Plateau 

Zhu La, Xiaogang Ma, Xu Zhou, Wenbin Yi, and Hongmin Gan

Lake thermal stratification is of great importance to hydrodynamics and transport of nutrients, oxygen, and primary production, which influence limnology and local climate. The thermal regime of the lakes over Tibetan Plateau (TP) was summarized as follow. During summer, solar radiation unevenly heats the water column in the vertical direction, resulting in a stratified thermal structure. The stratification dissipates in October, after which time a more uniform vertical distribution of temperature is observed. This occurs because the increased temperature gradient between the air and lake surface, combined with strong winds, drives considerable energy transfer from the lakes to the overlying air, and leads to a rapid decrease in surface water temperature. This result increases in density of the upper layers and then drives vertical convection that deepens the mixed layer. When the lakes have been completely frozen, the vertical water circulation stops; weak thermal stratification then develops and persists during winter. However, lake water near the surface warms rapidly, and rest water layer does not change much when lakes are covered with ice. When the lake ice disappears, wind-driven turbulence develops and promotes lake vertical mixing. Due to sparse observation, the lake modeling was an alternative method to simulate the seasonal lake thermal change induced by local climate change. Using lake model, the seasonal variation and magnitude of water temperature at different layers were reproduced fundamentally. The interaction heat flux and water exchange with overlying air also were simulated with reasonable error. Both the simulation and observation have shown that the thermal characteristic and ice phenology has altered: warming water and shorter ice duration, impacted by climate change. Meanwhile, the future projection of thermal response of lakes over TP to climate change shows that remarkable water temperature increase and winter ice loss which indicates less mixing frequent and shifting mixing regime. The Lake mixing events can channel the epilimnion and hypolimnion and release large amounts of potent greenhouse gases into the upper surface layer and the atmosphere in autumn, making lakes generally being considered as a weak net carbon source. The epilimnion depth show significant implications on the algal distribution, photosynthesis rates and establishing food web basis. Thus, the seasonal variations of thermal stratification and mixing in lakes can influence the aerobic life, prevent anoxia and impact on local climate and it is one of the most important factors in limnology and climate change.

How to cite: La, Z., Ma, X., Zhou, X., Yi, W., and Gan, H.: Lake thermal dynamics and its potential impact on lake ecological system on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8216, 2025.

EGU25-10079 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.10

Climate change-induced vegetation greening reduces soil moisture sensitivity on the Tibetan Plateau 

Mingshan Deng, Xianhong Meng, and Rebecca Oliver

Climate change has profoundly altered the vegetation and soil moisture dynamics and intensified land-atmosphere interactions, particularly in climate sensitive regions. However, exactly how vegetation affects soil moisture responses to climate change and its regional differences remains unclear. In this paper, we investigated changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, vegetation, and soil moisture (SM), and estimated the impact of vegetation greening on soil moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation from 1982 to 2060 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results show that increasing trends of light precipitation under all SSPs are greater than that in the historical period, while changes in medium and extreme precipitation are weaker, which leading to smaller changes in SM relative to precipitation under all SSPs. Vegetation greening induced by warming and increased precipitation on the TP, reduces the negative contribution of temperature to SM and the positive contribution of precipitation on SM in semi-arid and arid regions, where the leaf area index (LAI) exhibits a positive correlation with SM. Additionally, the impact of vegetation greening on shallow SM responses to temperature intensifies during 2019~2060 under all SSPs compared to 1982~2018. These findings highlight the critical need for integrated land management strategies to address the compounded effects of vegetation-soil feedbacks under climate change.

How to cite: Deng, M., Meng, X., and Oliver, R.: Climate change-induced vegetation greening reduces soil moisture sensitivity on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10079, 2025.

Applying observed surface parameters and atmospheric vertical profiles, our study simulated and analyzed the mechanism of shallow convective cloud triggering and deep moist convection development in the lake region of the Tibetan Plateau. The research found that lake breeze circulation not only aids in triggering convection but also has the ability to horizontally transport water vapor, creating favorable conditions for the transition from shallow cumulus convection to deep moist convection. These results suggested that future studies on energy and water cycles in the Tibetan Plateau should prioritize the lake regions. Lakes serve not only as a “water supply source” for the water cycle in the Tibetan Plateau but also have a unique mesoscale system—lake breeze circulation, which provides positive feedback for the development of convection, as well as for water and heat exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. Additionally, previous studies indicated that the area of lakes in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in the past, and existing studies predict that this trend will continue. The findings of this paper indicated that the increase in lake area is related to an increase in precipitation, providing important references for research on the water cycle in the Tibetan Plateau under climate change.

How to cite: Zhang, Y. and Han, C.: Large eddy simulation study on the mechanism of convection initiation in the lake region of the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11141, 2025.

Abstract. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau has owned a large number of various types of wetlands, which serve as major pastures for regional animal husbandry and water restoration. Among, Mitika Wetland (MW) is located in Lhari county in Nagqu city, southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region, with an average elevation of 4,900 m.a.s.l.. It is known as the Mitika Wetland National Nature Reserve (MWNNR) in China and it is the first wetland in Xizang that has been included on the List of Wetlands of International Importance. MWNNR is also known as the headwater region of Lhasa River, the “mother river” of people in Lhasa city. Study on its current status of soil fertility and geochemical characterization is therefore crucial for better understanding of its future vagaries under the global changes.In this study, analysis of 10 soil physiochemical parameters and 37 elements were carried out for the evaluation of topsoil fertility and geochemical features of the MW. The non-parametric test results indicated that the contents of soil organic matter, total organic carbon (TOC), cation exchange capacity (CEC), soil moisture, soil bulk density and soil salinity were in large extent related to the soil type. In contrast, pH, contents of available potassium, available phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen were regardless with soil type. Comprehensive soil fertility coefficient (F) among the different soil types studied in the wetland was as following: alpine meadow soils (1.72)>alpine shrub meadow soils (1.66)=frigid desert soils (1.66)>bog soils (1.56)>skeletal soils (1.43). Except the alpine meadow soil belonged to fertility grade, the other types belonged to the general grade, as this is the common state on the Plateau. Despite the high elevation and hash climate, nevertheless, soil fertility level in MW is comparable to that of cultivated land or artificial afforestation areas in the lower altitude (<3000 m.a.s.l.) regions of Xizang. Combined results from comparison with reginal background value and source identification using multivariable analysis showed that the contents of most studied soil elements were equivalent to the background values, and their distribution have been greatly affected by the geological background. In general, this study shows that the soil fertility of the alpine wetland located in the remote northeastern Xizang with a high elevation, surprisingly, have an adequate supply of soil nutrients to the pastures and, in a large extent, still remain chemically undisturbed under global change and human activities. Obviously, the wetland has played a key role in ecologically secure of the Lhasa River catchments.

Keywords: Alpine Wetland, Ecologically Secure, Element’s background value, Source Identification, Multivariable Analysis

 

How to cite: Huang, X., Chen, H., and Ciren, Z.: Current status of soil fertility and geochemical characteristics of a typical alpine wetland in Xizang, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11158, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11158, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau is renowned for its complex topography and heterogeneous surface, which lead to uneven surface heating and, consequently, trigger various local circulation phenomena such as valley winds, glacier winds, and lake-land breezes. To more accurately capture these unique meteorological conditions and improve wind field simulations in complex terrain, this study introduced and compared six different boundary layer parameterization schemes to evaluate their performance in simulating the wind field in the regions of the Lake Nam Co and Mount Everest. The study utilized two three-dimensional boundary layer schemes: SMS-3DTKE and PBL3D; two variations of SMS-3DTKE—one with simplified horizontal diffusion (3DTKE_smag) and another with the horizontal diffusion term completely removed (3DTKE_0); and two traditional one-dimensional boundary layer schemes: MYNN and Shin-Hong. Observed data was used to validate the simulation results. The results indicated that the two three-dimensional boundary layer schemes provided wind profiles at the Qomolangma Atmospheric and Environmental Observation and Research Station, CAS (QOMS) that closely matched observations, significantly outperforming the one-dimensional schemes. In particular, the three-dimensional schemes not only successfully simulated the near-surface wind field and the wind characteristics at 500 meters, but also explained the mechanism behind the afternoon strong winds—caused by the convergence of westerly winds crossing the ridge and southwesterly winds in the Rongbuk Valley. Furthermore, the SMS-3DTKE scheme excelled in simulating the onset time and intensity of the lake breezes at the Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interactions, CAS (NAMORS), underscoring the importance of incorporating horizontal diffusion terms in local circulation simulations. These findings are crucial for improving wind field simulation accuracy under complex terrain conditions using three-dimensional boundary layer schemes and provide valuable insights for future research.

How to cite: Xu, H., Han, C., and Ma, Y.: Application of Three-Dimensional Boundary Layer Schemes in Wind Field Simulation under Complex Terrain of the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11626, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11626, 2025.

EGU25-14064 | ECS | Posters on site | HS6.10

Late Oligocene monsoonal climate in the Lunpola Basin, central Tibetan Plateau: evidence from paleosol records 

Zengguang Guo, Qian Ming, Gaofeng Kang, Jianzhen Chen, Gen Wang, Xueyun Ma, Zhifu Wei, Xiaomei Zhang, Xinyu Huang, and Yongli Wang

The Asian monsoon affects the natural environment pattern in China, and its origin and evolution have been a debated issue in paleoclimatology. Recent studies indicate that the Asian monsoon reached the subtropical zone at least ~ 41 Ma and expanded to the central Tibetan Plateau during the Late Oligocene, but more geological evidence is still required to confirm its spatial evolution. The well-developed Late Oligocene paleosols in the Lunpola Basin, central TP, provide excellent material to address the above issue. In this paper, various climatic proxy indicators suggest that the late Oligocene LPL paleosols were forest cinnamon soils, as shown by the significant compound Bt and Bk horizons, abundant clay coating and carbonate nodules, and diagnostic clay chemical composition in Bt horizons. High CIA value, Rb/Sr ratio, and high content of illite/smectite mixed layer mineral show that these paleosols experienced intense weathering and leaching pedogenesis. Furthermore, the mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation of the Late Oligocene LPL Basin were 10.4~14.8 ℃ and 615~1128 mm estimated by the empirical formulas, respectively, which are comparable to the monsoonal climate parameter of Chinese modern cinnamon soils. So the development of these paleosols in the LPL Basin indicate that the Asian monsoon has reached the central TP at least during the Late Oligocene, providing important independent evidence for the study of the evolution of the Asian monsoon.

How to cite: Guo, Z., Ming, Q., Kang, G., Chen, J., Wang, G., Ma, X., Wei, Z., Zhang, X., Huang, X., and Wang, Y.: Late Oligocene monsoonal climate in the Lunpola Basin, central Tibetan Plateau: evidence from paleosol records, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14064, 2025.

EGU25-14093 | ECS | Orals | HS6.10

Investigating the Underlying Mechanisms of Monsoon Season Heavy Precipitation in Central Asian High Mountain Areas 

Wenqing Zhao, Yaoming Ma, Tetsuya Takemi, Xuelong Chen, and Dianbin Cao

In this study, fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) reanalysis data from 1979 to 2022 were utilized to investigate extreme precipitation in the central Asian high mountain (CAHM) region, comprising the Pamir Plateau and western, central, and eastern Tianshan regions. This study found that westerlies and monsoons are the primary drivers of extreme precipitation, with distinct mechanisms in the southwestern and northeastern CAHM (divided at approximately 79oE). In the southwestern CAHM, a weak Indian summer monsoon (ISM) leads to negative potential height anomalies, enhancing meridional water vapor flux from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, thereby increasing precipitation. Conversely, extreme precipitation is associated with the negative phase of the Silk Road pattern in the northeastern CAHM. While the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a lesser role, it influences water vapor supplies and atmospheric circulation in the southwestern CAHM and modulate meridional wind position in the northeastern CAHM with the ISM, contributing to extreme precipitation. Seasonal analysis revealed May as the peak for extreme precipitation in the southwestern CAHM region, while extreme precipitation in the northeastern CAHM region peaked in the midmonsoon months (June and July) due to the synergy between monsoons and westerlies of different strengths passing through the CAHM.

How to cite: Zhao, W., Ma, Y., Takemi, T., Chen, X., and Cao, D.: Investigating the Underlying Mechanisms of Monsoon Season Heavy Precipitation in Central Asian High Mountain Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14093, 2025.

Permafrost degradation on the Qinghai - Tibet Plateau (QTP) have a direct impact on the evapotranspiration and moisture recycling process by changing underlying land surface conditions. Up to now, the contribution of thermokarst lake evaporation and plant transpiration to local precipitation in the permafrost regions of the QTP remains unknown. This study collected precipitation, thermokarst lake water, plant, and soil samples, and quantitatively estimated the proportional contributions of thermokarst lake evaporation, soil evaporation, and plant transpiration to local precipitation by the Bayesian isotopic mixing model in the permafrost region of central QTP. Results showed that the contribution of advection vapor to local precipitation was dominant, with a mean value of 74.6 %, and the moisture recycling ratio ranged from 19.7 ± 2.1 % to 29.7 ± 3.6 % (mean: 25.4 %). The mean contribution fraction of thermokarst lake evaporation and soil evaporation were 9.2 % and 8.9 %, respectively. Contrary to the findings of related studies in the nearby Qilian Mountains and arid central Asian oases, the total surface evaporation contribution of 18.1% was considerably higher than the 7.4% of plant transpiration in this study area, which was attributed to the rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes, sparse vegetation, and higher soil moisture condition in the shallow active layer.

How to cite: Wu, T. and Zhu, X.: Larger contribution of evaporation from soil and thermokarst lake to local precipitation than plant transpiration in the permafrost regions of central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14353, 2025.

In the year 2023, much of the world experienced record-breaking extreme heat and drought following the Triple-Dip La Niña. However, the Tibetan Plateau witnessed anomalous wetting but milder cooling, and the impact of these changes on the dynamics of permafrost-affected lake areas remains unclear. Here, we integrated lake maps from 2020 to 2023 and permafrost distribution to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of permafrost-affected lakes over Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that the area of permafrost-affected lakes increased by 2.1 % year-1 (1245.89 km2) from 2020 to 2023 over Tibetan Plateau, representing a 25% higher growth rate compared to the period from 1990 to 2020. Moreover, the expansion of permafrost-affected lakes exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the 95% (1159.48 km2) of the total increase area occurred in endorheic basins with larger permafrost coverage and increased net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation). In contrast, the exorheic basins with fragmented permafrost coverage instead exhibited a markable slowdown expansion by only 0.98% year-1, due to the decrease in net precipitation. These findings highlighted the compounded effects of extreme precipitation events and permafrost degradation on lake expansion over Tibetan Plateau.

How to cite: Ji, X., Yu, X., Zhao, Y., and Wang, T.: Amplified Expansion of Permafrost-Affected Lakes on Tibetan Plateau impacted by the Triple-Dip La Niña Event (2020–2023), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14402, 2025.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and surface sensible heat flux (SH) over Asian plateaus, including the Tibetan Plateau (TP), Iranian Plateau (IP), and Mongolian Plateau (MP), underwent abrupt shifts in the late 1990s, significantly influencing China’s rainfall variability. A Statistical method is used to examined the relative contributions of these two factors, revealing that land conditions (plateau SH) contribute slightly more, but are nearly equal to the contributions from ocean conditions (SST). The results suggest anomalous SH heating over the MP leads to significant atmospheric warming, while the weakened SH over the TP and strengthened SH over the IP alter the local atmospheric circulation (i.e. South Asian High). These thermal forcings trigger an anomalous anticyclone over the MP and northeastern China, strengthen the teleconnection pattern across Eurasia, and simultaneously modulate the westerlies and the Asian summer monsoon systems, thereby influencing summer precipitation in China. Furthermore, we use the Community Earth System Model to further verify these results. This study provides new insights into the role of land forcing and ocean forcing on the interdecadal variability of China’s summer rainfall and offers important evidence for understanding the mechanisms through which external climate forcings affect China’s precipitation patterns.

How to cite: Yao, N., Ma, Y., and Wang, B.: The relative contributions of Sea surface temperature and Plateau surface sensible heat flux to China’s interdecadal summer precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19365, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is also known as the ‘Water Tower of Asia’ as it is the source of 10 major rivers. Significant changes in the natural and social environment of the TP have occurred over the last 50 years (e.g., temperatures have warmed twice as much as the global average over the same period), and there is considerable uncertainty about future environmental change. Water vapor flux, expressed as evapotranspiration (ET), is crucial for understanding the water balance over the TP. The TP is rich in land cover types, including grasslands, deserts, lakes, forests, glaciers, snow, etc. The dynamics and thermodynamics of the subsurface vary greatly between different climate types, making it a major challenge to conduct large-scale studies of ET processes over the TP and to explore the governing mechanisms and feedbacks to the climate system and hydrological processes. However, a single ET dataset cannot provide a reliable answer on how much water is evaporated from the TP due to model limitations in describing complete processes and uncertainties in different datasets. In this study, we first evaluated 22 ET products in the TP against in-situ observations and basin-scale water balance estimates. The spatiotemporal variability of the total vapor flux was also evaluated to clarify the vapor flux magnitude and variability over the TP. The results showed that the high-resolution (~1km) global ET data based on observations from ETMonitor and PMLV2 were more accurate than than other global and regional ET data with fine spatial resolution (~1km), when comparing with in-situ observations. When compared with basin scale water balance estimates of ET, ETMonitor and PMLV2 at finer spatial resolution and GLEAM and TerraClimate at the coarse spatial resolution showed good agreement. Different products showed different patterns of spatiotemporal variability, with large differences in the central to western TP. The mean water vapor flux over multi-year and multi-product over the TP was 333.1 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 38.3 mm/yr. Soil evaporation accounts for most of the total water vapor flux over the TP, followed by plant transpiration and canopy rainfall interception evaporation, while the contributions from open water evaporation and snow/ice sublimation are not negligible.

How to cite: Jia, L. and Zheng, C.: Assessing how much water evaporated from the Tibetan Plateau using multiple datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19923, 2025.

HS7 – Precipitation and climate

 Accurate precipitation estimation is crucial for hydrological modeling and flood forecasting in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China. This study explores the use of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods to fuse multi-source precipitation data, including satellite, radar, and ground-based observations. We apply models such as Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to improve precipitation estimation accuracy. Performance is evaluated using metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Our results demonstrate that deep learning models, particularly CNNs and LSTMs, outperform traditional ML methods in terms of accuracy and spatial consistency. This work provides a robust approach to multi-source data fusion, enhancing precipitation monitoring and hydrological applications in the YRB.

How to cite: Chen, T.: Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Multi-Source Precipitation Integration in the Yangtze River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1507, 2025.

EGU25-3311 | PICO | HS7.1

A novel algorithm for remote sensing rainfall retrieval 

Massimiliano Ignaccolo and Carlo De Michele

Dual-polarization radar rainfall rate estimates are based on scaling laws involving the horizontal reflectivity Zh and the ratio between horizontal and vertical reflectivity ZDR. Scaling law parameters obtained from disdrometric observations are highly dependent on the data set used. As a consequence ZR scaling laws do not generalize well. Using the jargon of data science, a ZR scaling law has an accpetable training accuracy and a poor validation accuracy. 

To overcome this limitation, we propose the Formula-R algorithm based on the adoption of the data science parametrization of drop size distributions and its universal shape factors [https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0211.1]. We show, using a worldwide catalog of disdrometric observations, how the Formula-R outperforms the ZR scaling law both in training and validation accuracy. 

The Formula-R algorithm could be used as the foundation of a universal remote sensing retrieval algorithm making the question "which ZR-relationship should we use?" a question of the past.

 

How to cite: Ignaccolo, M. and De Michele, C.: A novel algorithm for remote sensing rainfall retrieval, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3311, 2025.

High resolution rainfall data are essential to quantify small scale and fast hydrological processes. The objective of the paper is to determine temporal variability and spatial patterns of precipitation statistic of one-minute resolution rainfall across Germany. The German Weather Service (DWD) started in 1993 to deploy rain gauges that achieve 1 minute temporal and 0.01 mm volumetric resolution by combining tipping buckets with weigthing (rain[e]H3 by LAMBRECHT meteo GmbH and OTT Pluvio by OTT Hydromet). 345 of those stations all over Germany have data with more than 10 years. For each station empirical cumulative distribution functions (eCDF) of precipitation intensity and dry periods were derived. Data were then aggregated to lower resolutions ranging from 2 min to 4 months. For all aggregation levels we fitted power law, log-normal and Weibull distribution functions and compared the goodness of fit. To determine spatial correlations between stations we extracted intensity and dry period duration at a given frequency from the empirical distribution function and applied a correlation analysis with station longitude, latitude, elevation and total rainfall. Annual and diurnal variations were analysed by fitting a power law to a moving window of data. A 60d segment of the yearly cycle (combining data of all years) and a 4h segment of the daily cycle (combining data of all days) were used. Similar the dependence of the power-law coefficient on temperature was analysed with a moving window of 2.5K width, shifted between -10 to 30°C.

We show that rainfall intensity measured at 1 minute resolution shows a distinct power-law distribution for all stations. The dry period durations instead are not purely power-law distributed. When aggregated, the distribution of the data transitions to lognormal distribution at 15 min aggregation level and to a Weibull distribution from 6 hours onwards. This has significant implication for estimating flood risk and deriving design storm properties as each temporal resolution requires a different statistical distribution to be fitted. We conclude that the mixing of the intensity and dry-period statistic creates this effect. While total rainfall in Germany clearly varies, with high totals in the north-west and lower values in the east, the intensity distribution does not reflect that. We find no significant correlation with longitude, latitude, elevation nor total station rainfall. But the dry-period statistic correlates well. This leads to the conclusion that rainfall intensity statistic is very similar in all of Germany and the difference in recurrence intervals and total rainfall is mostly defined by the dry periods between rain events. The power-law exponent varies annually with a sine curve from -1 to -2 in phase with the annual temperature cycle. It also shows a clear diurnal cycle. It can be expected that those cycles are driven by a strong dependence on temperature. The power-law exponent is close to -3 at 0°C and -1 at 25°C, creating higher intensities at higher temperatures.

How to cite: Frechen, N. and Hinz, C.: One-minute rainfall data reveal temperature dependend seasonal and diurnal variability of the power-law distribution for Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6463, 2025.

EGU25-6983 | ECS | PICO | HS7.1

Multifractal analysis of Liquid Water Content vertical and temporal variability 

Emna Chikhaoui and Auguste Gires

Driven by complex mechanisms, precipitation exhibits extreme variability across scales both in space and time. A clearer insight into this variability can be obtained by exploring multiple parameters, such as the Liquid Water Content (LWC). It is a measurement that quantifies the amount of liquid water available in the atmosphere and as such it provides valuable information about precipitation variability across space and time. While extensive research has focused on analyzing LWC variability at the surface level, studies addressing the vertical variability remain relatively limited. However, it contributes to better understanding of rainfall dynamics, and notably the variability occurring at scales smaller than radar gate.

Within this scope, six months of a Micro Rain Radar PRO (MRR-PRO) observations were gathered in Ecole nationale des ponts et chaussées, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, which is located next to Paris, France. The MRR-PRO is a K-band weather radar that measures hydrometeors fall velocity up to more than 4 kilometers of altitude above its position with a 35 meters spatial resolution and a 10 seconds time step. From collected data and simple assumptions, various quantities related to rainfall drop size distribution including LWC can be derived. The generated data were analyzed to study the spatial and temporal variations of LWC using Universal Multifractals (UM); which is a physically based framework that assesses the variability of geophysical fields across wide ranges of scales with the help of only three parameters with physical interpretation.

In this study, two types of UM analysis are implemented. As a first step, the time series of  LWC at  each altitude is studied. As a second step, vertical profiles of LWC are analyzed and UM parameters characterizing vertical variability are derived. Obtained results and their interpretation in a space-time framework will be presented and discussed.

Authors acknowledge the France-Taiwan Ra2DW project for financial support (grant number by the French National Research Agency – ANR-23-CE01-0019-01).

How to cite: Chikhaoui, E. and Gires, A.: Multifractal analysis of Liquid Water Content vertical and temporal variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6983, 2025.

The abstraction of precipitation can be defined as the difference between precipitation and runoff. Understanding the dynamics behind water abstraction could provide new insights into hydrological processes and contributes to improved water resource management strategies. This research aims to investigate the phenomenon of water abstraction and critically examine the widely acknowledged assumption that near-surface air temperature is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of water abstraction. The study employs a simplified water balance equation to quantify water abstraction, using observed data from dam catchments in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, which span a range of climate types. Data mining techniques, including linear regression and related statistical analyses, are applied to explore the relationship between precipitation and water abstraction across various timescales. Preliminary results indicate that, on a monthly timescale, there is generally a positive correlation between precipitation and water abstraction during the flood season (January–May and November–December) across all catchments. However, the relationship during the dry season (June–October) remains ambiguous. Among the three regions, Japan experiences the highest water abstraction during all seasons, whereas the lowest water abstraction is observed in South Korea during the dry season and in Taiwan during the flood season. On an annual timescale, Japan shows the relative highest water abstraction, while South Korea records the lowest. Notably, our findings diverge from previous research. In Taiwan, particularly during the flood season, an increased incidence of negative water abstraction has been observed. This phenomenon suggests that runoff processes in Taiwan are more influenced by groundwater dynamics than by precipitation.

How to cite: Lu, C. and You, J.-Y.: Observation and Comparison of Precipitation and Water Abstraction Data in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7906, 2025.

EGU25-11476 | ECS | PICO | HS7.1

Retrieval of the hail size number distribution from polarimetric C-band weather radar using double-moment normalization 

Matteo Guidicelli, Alfonso Ferrone, Gionata Ghiggi, Marco Gabella, Urs Germann, and Alexis Berne

Estimating the distribution of hail sizes is crucial for assessing related weather hazards and potential damage to buildings, vehicles and agriculture. In this study, we present a novel technique for estimating the hail size number distribution (HSND) using polarimetric C-band radar data. A generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to estimate two empirical moments of the HSND, which is then reconstructed using double-moment normalization. This approach capitalizes on the relative invariance of the double-moment normalized HSND. The model is trained on data from the Swiss network of automatic hail sensors, spanning from September 2018 to August 2024 and covering three regions of Switzerland particularly prone to hail. Several polarimetric features are extracted from a 3D radar composite that combines observations from all operational Swiss radars. Among the various extracted features, the model selects the echo-top height of 50 dBZ reflectivity value at vertical polarization and the volume of the region with a cross-correlation coefficient rhoHV below 0.97, as these provided the best predictive performance. Radar-derived HSND estimates show good agreement with independent hail sensor observations. Additionally, the model is evaluated through comparisons with photogrammetric drone surveys and crowd-sourced reports of hail. This technique enables high spatio-temporal resolution (1 km and 5 minutes) retrievals of HSND and related metrics, such as kinetic energy. Further ground observations, particularly drone-based, are essential for more comprehensive evaluation of the retrieved HSND.

How to cite: Guidicelli, M., Ferrone, A., Ghiggi, G., Gabella, M., Germann, U., and Berne, A.: Retrieval of the hail size number distribution from polarimetric C-band weather radar using double-moment normalization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11476, 2025.

Spatial and temporal interpolation methods are generally used for estimation of missing data. Objective selection of control points (sites) with available data in a region for use in spatial interpolation to estimate missing data in space and time is always a challenge. The numerical weights derived through spatial and temporal interpolation approaches attached to data available at different sites have an impact of the estimation of missing data. Parsimonious and robust interpolation models can be developed using schemes that objectively select optimal number of sites and methodologies that eliminate redundant sites and regulate the weights. In this study regularization schemes, mathematical programming model formulations and different feature selection methods used in machine learning field are developed and evaluated for optimal and objective selection of sites for estimation of missing precipitation records. Variants of regularization schemes such as ridge regression, lease absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and elastic net are experimented. Mixed integer nonlinear optimization programming (MINLP) models with binary variables and multiple feature selection methods are adopted in this work. A case study using precipitation data at several rain gauges in a temperate climatic region of Kentucky, USA is used to demonstrate the benefits of using regularization schemes and optimization with binary variables to select an optimal subset of control points. Results point to improved estimations when these approaches are used for estimation of missing precipitation data.

How to cite: Teegavarapu, R.: Objective and Optimal Spatial Interpolation Approaches for Imputing Missing Precipitation Records, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13245, 2025.

EGU25-13674 | ECS | PICO | HS7.1

 A decade-long analysis of rainfall in Rome based on disdrometer: Rain patterns and Intermittency  

Ravi Shankar Pandey, Natale Alberto Carrassi, Federico Porcù, and Elisa Adirosi

The study presents the first analysis of the rain structure based on 11 years (2013-2023) of continuous 1-min disdrometer data collected by the TC-Clima disdrometer located nearby Rome (Italy). The investigation employs various techniques, including delineating rainfall events based on different minimum inter-event times (MITs), calculating rain rate, mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), as well as stratiform and convective precipitation classification. The dataset has been pre-processed to filter/remove missing/erroneous information and to ensure unbiased measurements. Seasonal variations showed that autumn had the highest rainfall accumulation (38.8%, 3126.8 mm), despite shorter rain durations (1116.5 hours) compared to winter (1446.5 hours). Winter contributed 28.2% (1986.65 mm) with prolonged rain events of smaller droplets (Dm = 0.98), while summer had the lowest total rainfall (10%, 1329.6 mm) but the highest average rain rate (3.4 mm/h) and largest drops (Dm = 1.39). The difference in drop sizes and rain types across seasons is important, as stratiform clouds, linked to steady rain, were more common in autumn and winter, while convective clouds, associated with intense, short-duration rain, dominated summer. We then focus on rainfall intermittency: the abrupt onset or interruptions of rainfall events. We quantify intermittency by using the intermittency fraction (IFr), i.e., the proportion of time with no rain during an event. Diurnal analysis of IFr revealed significant seasonal differences. Intermittency Fraction peaked between 9am and 2pm, with summer seeing sharp peaks before noon, followed by a rapid decrease in the afternoon. Winter maintained more consistent IFr throughout the day. Rain interruptions have been more frequent in winter, but these breaks were generally short, indicating long-duration, low-intensity rainfall. In contrast, summer had fewer interruptions, but they lasted longer due to intense, short-lived rain. These seasonal differences are robust and appear also by varying the fixed-time averages of the rainfall intermittency. Overall, the longest continuous rain event lasted 19.4hrs, while the longest dry spell was 534.4hrs. The rainfall is an intermittent natural phenomenon whose start and end are defined by rainless intervals referred to as minimum inter-event time, MIT. Intra event rainfall intermittency across various MITs shows higher IFrs at shorter MITs, particularly during summer. Our research also shows that disdrometer measures higher rain amount than conventional rain gauge with highest contrast in summer season. This further underscores the importance of high-resolution rainfall data for accurate predictions. Disdrometers confirmed to be a unique source of reliable and detailed rainfall measurements, which are essential for enhancing resilience against hydro-meteorological challenges such as flooding.

How to cite: Pandey, R. S., Carrassi, N. A., Porcù, F., and Adirosi, E.:  A decade-long analysis of rainfall in Rome based on disdrometer: Rain patterns and Intermittency , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13674, 2025.

Rainfall is known to exhibit extreme variability over wide range of space and time scale, which makes it challenging to characterize, model and even measure. Rainfall measurement devices have observation scales very different from one another ranging from roughly 20 cm in space and few tens seconds (or few minutes) in time for punctual measurement such as disdrometers (or rain gauge), to few hundreds meters in space and few minutes in time for operational weather radars, and up to few kilometres in space and few tens of minutes for satellite data. This very significant observation scale gap between these devices creates a challenge in the comparion simply because of the intrinsic variability of rainfall, even without considering instrumental biases associated to each device.

This work focuses on the impact of the intrinsic rainfall variability on the comparison between punctual (disdrometer or rain gauge) and weather radar rainfall measurement. In order to achieve this, the physically based and mathematically robust framework of Universal Multifractals will be used. It relies on the assumption that rainfall is generated through an underlying multiplicative process. In such framework, the rain rate field can be written as the resolution (defined as the ratio between the outer scale of the phenomenon and the observation scale) to the power of a singularity. This singularity is preserved through scales.

Rainfall data collected in UK and Taiwan are used. These include high-resolution radar composite products and ground gauge records. In the UK, C-band radar composite, Nimrod, at 5-min and 1-km resolutions is used to compare with 1-min rainfall records derived from tipping bucket gauge records, while, in Taiwan, S-band radar composite, QPESUM, at 10-min and 1-km resolutions is used to compare with 10-second disdrometer rainfall records.

The concept of singularity is used to suggest an innovative comparison approach between rainfall measurement devices. More precisely, the local singularity along with the associated uncertainty is assessed using radar data on the range of available space time scales and then compared with the one of disdrometer or rain gauge accounting for the ratio between the observation scales. Results and interpretation of this novel comparison method on the available data will be discussed.

Authors acknowledge the France-Taiwan Ra2DW project (supported by the French National Research Agency – ANR-23-CE01-0019-01 and Taiwan’s National Science and Technology Council – 113-2923-M-002-001-MY4) for partial financial support.

How to cite: Gires, A. and Wang, L.-P.: Multifractal singularity to bridge the scale gap between various rainfall measurement devices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13715, 2025.

EGU25-15409 | PICO | HS7.1

The wind effects on disdrometer and rain gauges measurements: results from a 4-year long rain series data-set in Pescara and a 10-year long rain series data-set in Calabria (Italy) 

Elisa Adirosi, Leone Parasporo, Luca Baldini, Arianna Cauretuccio, Enrico Chinchella, Tommaso Caloiero, and Luca Lanza

Disdrometers are in-situ, non-catching devices capable of measuring the size and fall velocity (for most models) of each individual hydrometeor (solid or liquid) that enters their measurement volume. These devices are primarily used for research purposes, and their data have applications in fields such as meteorology, climatology, and hydrology. However, their measurements can be influenced by the presence of wind. In this context, one of the objectives of the PRIN project titled “Fostering innovation in precipitation measurements: from drop size to hydrological and climatic scales” is to quantify the accuracy of disdrometers. In this regard, data collected from a Thies Clima disdrometer and wind sensors installed in the city of Pescara serve as a valuable resource for: i) characterizing precipitation, ii) conducting a joint analysis of atmospheric conditions, including wind directionand speed, and iii) evaluating the effect of wind on disdrometer measurements. The dataset covers the period from July 2021 to August 2024, although it includes significant interruptions. This study presents the main characteristics of the site in terms of wind and rain distributions, as well as their joint distributions. Additionally, the effects of wind on disdrometer measurements are quantified in terms of the associated bias on on DSD (Drop Size Distribution) estimation. Results indicate that wind-corrected DSDs differ, on average, by 136.41m−3 ·mm−1 in terms of root mean square error compared to uncorrected DSDs. Subsequently, since we do not have a DSD from the rain gauge, we hypothesize that it has the form of an exponential αeβ, and we interpolate these parameters from the disdrometer data. Then this parametrs are used to apply corrections to nearby rain gauge measurements, and the corrected and uncorrected values are compared. These differences are found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, twenty-six stations in Calabria, equipped with rain gauges and anemometers, are analyzed using the same DSD parameters derived from the Pescara dataset. Precipitation amounts obtained from corrected and uncorrected DSDs are compared with corresponding corrected and uncorrected rain gauge data, revealing statistically significant differences. These findings provide insight into the effects of the applied correction on rain rate measurements.
Acknowledgments
This work was carried out within the framework of the ongoing Italian national project PRIN2022MYTKP4 “Fostering innovation in precipitation measurements: from drop size to hydrological and climatic scales”.

How to cite: Adirosi, E., Parasporo, L., Baldini, L., Cauretuccio, A., Chinchella, E., Caloiero, T., and Lanza, L.: The wind effects on disdrometer and rain gauges measurements: results from a 4-year long rain series data-set in Pescara and a 10-year long rain series data-set in Calabria (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15409, 2025.

EGU25-15697 | ECS | PICO | HS7.1

Rain scintillation spectra from microwave links: A potential source of information for raindrop size distributions 

Peiyuan Wang, Arjan Droste, Marc Schleiss, and Remko Uijlenhoet

Rainfall has been monitored with microwave links opportunistically for nearly 20 years. So far, most studies have focused on retrieving rainfall rates using the mean received signal, based on the power-law relation between specific attenuation and rainfall rate. However, theories and measurements have indicated that the power spectral density (PSD) of received signal contains extra information about rainfall. The drop size distribution (DSD) and the motion of raindrops both play a role in determining the scintillation spectrum of rain. To evaluate the feasibility of making use of rain spectra for retrieving information about DSDs, measurements from different experimental datasets are investigated. Initial results indicate that some information about rainfall (e.g. rainfall rate) is indeed retained in the spectra measured by a radio link at 26 GHz and a scintillometer at 160 GHz. Furthermore, a simulation of the PSD of the received voltage during rain is made to gain understandings of its behavior. The simulation, based on Ishimaru’s work (1978), allows for the customization of various settings (e.g., wavelength, geometry, antenna gain functions) of radio links, as well as the DSD at different locations along the links. It is shown that large raindrops have more influence on the PSD of received voltage than smaller raindrops. A theoretical method to retrieve DSD from the PSD of the received voltage is proposed and its performance is assessed by simulation. Results show that the concentration of the tiniest raindrops is hard to retrieve because of their minor impacts on PSD. In the simulation, the concentration of larger raindrops can be relatively reliably retrieved, even when a large variation of DSDs is present along the microwave link.

How to cite: Wang, P., Droste, A., Schleiss, M., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Rain scintillation spectra from microwave links: A potential source of information for raindrop size distributions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15697, 2025.

EGU25-15743 | ECS | PICO | HS7.1

Small-scale spatial rainfall variability during the extreme convective rain event of June 11th, 2018, over the city of Lausanne 

Adrien Liernur, Lionel Peyraud, Marco Gabella, Urs Germann, and Alexis Berne

Localized and Intense Rainfall Events (LIREs) can cause significant societal and economic damages. Typically developing over very small spatial and temporal scales, the accurate characterization and forecasting of such events remains, however, particularly challenging. By collecting distributed space-time observations, weather radars can provide useful information for the analysis of such events. In this study we take advantage of the experimental high-resolution radar data from the MeteoSwiss operational radar network available at 83 m radial resolution, every 5 minutes, over 20 different elevations to analyze the small-scale spatial variability associated with the extreme Lausanne LIRE of June 11th, 2018, leading to the largest ever recorded 10-min rain gauge accumulation in Switzerland (41 mm). First, investigating the large-scale processes associated with this extreme event, a synoptic and dynamic analysis was conducted. This revealed the presence of a moderately unstable maritime tropical airmass which aided in the formation of a multicell thunderstorm which produced a wet microburst right over the city of Lausanne pouring an enormous quantity of water over very small spatial and temporal scales and leading to considerable localized flood and wind damage. Then, relying on the high-resolution radar data, the variability at small scale was measured by comparing rain rate values derived at different resolutions. More specifically, starting from the 83 m radar data, different existing hydrometeor-specific Z-R / Z-S relationships were used to compute an equivalent rain rate value at the gate level. Those were then compared against the corresponding rain rate values integrated at coarser radial resolutions of 500 m and 1000 m, and the difference across resolutions was derived as an indicator of small-scale spatial variability. With 1.5%, 0.41% and 0.18% of the total extracted and pre-processed gate volume showing differences larger than 25, 50 and 75 mm/hr between the 83 m and the 500 m data, a few but extreme small-scale rainfall variability peaks were observed, mostly associated with intensity peaks. Although most of these peaks were located above or within the melting layer, several of them were still observed below the melting layer, at proximity to the ground, and potentially decisive for hydrological applications. Converting this 3D information into 2D maps of sub-grid variability, a significant variability at the 5 min / 1km2 resolution was observed highlighting not only the highly dynamic evolution of this event but also and the added value of high-resolution radar data to capture small-scale peaks associated with this extreme LIRE. By providing complementary insights on rainfall variability peaks, the retrieved sub-grid information can help improve the characterization of LIRE and enrich existing rainfall products.

How to cite: Liernur, A., Peyraud, L., Gabella, M., Germann, U., and Berne, A.: Small-scale spatial rainfall variability during the extreme convective rain event of June 11th, 2018, over the city of Lausanne, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15743, 2025.

EGU25-17651 | PICO | HS7.1

Wind tunnel experiments to evaluate the wind-induced bias on disdrometer measurements 

Luca G. Lanza, Enrico Chinchella, Filippo Calamelli, Arianna Cauteruccio, and Daniele Rocchi

Wind has a significant impact on precipitation measurement instruments, including disdrometers, by inducing aerodynamic disturbances around their bodies. These airflow features divert trajectories of falling hydrometeors, often reducing the amount of precipitation detected when compared to  windless conditions. Furthermore, the shape of disdrometers, which is non-radially symmetric, makes the wind-induced bias dependent on wind direction. Traditionally, field experiments have been used to develop corrections for the wind-induced bias. However, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations offer a more versatile approach for studying wind-induced bias on different instrument designs under varying climatic conditions. In this work a wind tunnel experimental campaign was conducted to show the interaction between wind and disdrometers and to validate a suitable CFD model by providing detailed data on drop trajectories. Full-scale tests were conducted in the high-speed test section of the Wind Tunnel facility available at Politecnico di Milano. The chamber (4m wide, 3.8m high and 6m long) is characterized by a nearly laminar flow and a narrow boundary layer. The disdrometers were fixed to the ground on a rotating plate to facilitate alignment with the flow direction. Furthermore, a specially designed drop generator – attached to a moving gantry – was used to release water drops into the wind flow, allowing precise control of drop diameter, release height and timing. Finally, a high-speed camera, operating at 1000 fps, recorded the trajectories of the drops approaching the sensing areas of the disdrometers. Images were processed to identify each drop, calculate their velocity and track their movement through the camera field of view. The study focused on two disdrometer models, the Thies CLIMA LPM and the OTT Parsivel2, which use an optical method to measure drop size and velocity. The experiments were conducted for wind speeds of 10 m/s, drop diameters ranging from 1.0 to 1.2 mm, and three wind directions (0°, 45°, and 90°). Results showed that wind significantly alters drop trajectories, often diverting them away from the sensing area or causing them to collide with the instrument body. A numerical model - already used in e.g., Chinchella et al., (2024) – was validated by simulating the experimental conditions and comparing the results against observations. Validation shows that the numerical approach is suitable for developing adjustment curves to correct disdrometer measurements under windy conditions. This work further highlights the importance of addressing wind effects in precipitation measurements, by applying correction curves (see e.g., Chinchella et al., 2024) to enhance the accuracy of rainfall measurements obtained from disdrometers like the Thies CLIMA LPM or the OTT Parsivel2.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The wind tunnel campaign on disdrometers was carried out within the framework of the Italian national projects PRIN2022MYTKP4 “Fostering innovation in precipitation measurements: from drop size to hydrological and climatic scales”.

References:

Chinchella E., Cauteruccio, A., & Lanza, L. G. (2024). Quantifying the wind-induced bias of rainfall measurements for the Thies CLIMA optical disdrometer. Water Resources Research, 60(10), e2024WR037366. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR037366   

How to cite: Lanza, L. G., Chinchella, E., Calamelli, F., Cauteruccio, A., and Rocchi, D.: Wind tunnel experiments to evaluate the wind-induced bias on disdrometer measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17651, 2025.

EGU25-17854 | PICO | HS7.1

Assessing the Impact of Weather Conditions on Radar-Based Rainfall Estimation in the Tropics: A Case Study in Thailand 

Narongrit Luangdilok, Ruben Imhoff, Claudia Brauer, and Albrecht Weerts

In hydrological modeling and forecasting, rainfall data is a key factor in determining the model’s accuracy. The higher the accuracy of the estimated rainfall, the more accurate the model’s predictions can be. Rain gauges can be utilized to estimate the amount of rainfall within a catchment area but their effectiveness is often limited by the sparse distribution of rain gauges and the lack of sufficient spatial information they provide for comprehensive distributed hydrological simulations. Weather radar serves as an alternative source of rainfall data, capable of providing remotely sensed rainfall estimates with high temporal and spatial resolution. However, conventional radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is subject to uncertainties, primarily arising from variations in the drop size distribution (DSD) of hydrometeors and variations in vertical profile reflectivity (VPR). Those variations are typically influenced by the local climate and weather conditions and their impacts on the performance of QPE remains a subject of research especially in tropical regions. Therefore, this study aims to investigate relationships between weather conditions and the performance of radar QPE using statistical and machine learning approaches at different time scales. In Thailand, the radar-based rainfall data is derived with a standard fixed power law relationship between radar reflectivity and rain rate, from three weather radars located in different parts of the country. The rainfall estimates from this radar rainfall product are investigated with weather conditions from ERA5 reanalysis datasets and local observations in the period of 2022-2024. The findings help us to identify the key factors influencing the accuracy of radar rainfall estimation, which can be used to improve radar rainfall estimation, for example through finding adequate predictors for the construction of a dynamic Z-R relationship in tropical conditions. Future studies could expand this analysis by integrating these impact factors into radar QPEs and implementing improved estimated rainfall products in hydrological models.

How to cite: Luangdilok, N., Imhoff, R., Brauer, C., and Weerts, A.: Assessing the Impact of Weather Conditions on Radar-Based Rainfall Estimation in the Tropics: A Case Study in Thailand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17854, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17854, 2025.

EGU25-530 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Improving Precipitation Merging: A Generalized Two-Stage Framework Using the Signal-to-Noise Ratio Optimization (SNR-opt) 

Seokhyeon Kim, Suraj Shah, Yi Liu, and Ashish Sharma

Gauge-independent, multi-source precipitation merging methods are well-established approach for improving precipitation estimates. These methods predominantly aim to minimise uncertainty in precipitation magnitude, yet they frequently neglect errors in distinguishing between rain and no-rain events. This oversight often leads to biased merging weights and suboptimal precipitation estimates. In this study, we introduce an innovative two-stage framework called the Generalised Signal-to-Noise Ratio Optimisation (G-SNR) framework, specifically designed to address these limitations. The first stage employs the Categorical Triple Collocation-Merging (CTC-M) method for binary merging, effectively mitigating errors in rain/no-rain classification. The second stage applies Signal-to-Noise Ratio Optimisation (SNR-opt) to enhance precipitation magnitude estimates, leveraging the improved classification outcomes. Evaluation results demonstrate that G-SNR consistently surpasses both input data and existing methods in terms of binary classification and magnitude estimation. Importantly, it achieves error reductions across all percentiles, delivering robust performance for both low and extreme precipitation events. This framework provides a comprehensive and reliable solution to longstanding challenges in precipitation merging, significantly enhancing both accuracy and dependability.

How to cite: Kim, S., Shah, S., Liu, Y., and Sharma, A.: Improving Precipitation Merging: A Generalized Two-Stage Framework Using the Signal-to-Noise Ratio Optimization (SNR-opt), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-530, 2025.

Reliable precipitation data from in-situ stations is often limited by inconsistent quality, resolution, and spatial coverage. This is particularly true in regions like the West Bank, where ground-based observations are scarce. This hampers hydrological and environmental studies where accurate precipitation estimates are vital.  Therefore, satellite-based rainfall products are an appealing alternative due to their broad spatial and consistent temporal coverage. However, the accuracy of these products in complex terrain is questionable due to sensor and retrieval errors, necessitating adjustment to improve their reliability. This study evaluates various adjustment methods for four satellite precipitation products (IMERG Final Run, PDIR-Now, CCS-CDR, and CMORPH) across the study area of Historical Palestine (West Bank and Israel). Daily satellite precipitation estimates were compared to observations from 316 in-situ stations (256 in Israel and 58 in the Palestinian territories). Adjustment methods included traditional bias correction techniques (Linear Scaling, Daily Translation, and Annual Sums), more advanced approaches (Empirical Quantile Mapping, Robust Quantile Mapping, Gaussian Distribution Mapping, and Local Intensity Scaling), and machine learning models (Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks). Results show that, among the non-machine learning approaches, Daily Translation (DT) achieved the greatest improvement in accuracy followed by Power Bias adjustment. DT applied to IMERG resulted in an improvement of 24% and 17% in R2 and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) respectively. All machine learning approaches outperformed non-machine learning methods, with a two-step Random Forest (RF2) method delivering the best results. RF2, which leverages data from multiple satellites, had a 109% improvement in R2 and a 54% improvement in MAE. Additionally, the global RFG model showcased excellent results in producing a unified model that can be generalized for the entirety of the study area. The findings are globally applicable and evaluate multiple adjustment methods which opens the opportunity for easily accessible remotely sensed precipitation products to be used in many hydrological applications.

How to cite: Jayousi, F. and O'Loughlin, F.: Precision in Precipitation:  Bias Corrections and Machine Learning for Reliable Satellite Precipitation in The Levant, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-722, 2025.

EGU25-841 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Urban runoff response to climate-change-driven heavy precipitation and urbanization 

Raz Nussbaum, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin

Excess runoff from heavy precipitation events (HPEs) in urban environments often leads to urban flooding, a severe hazard with significant implications for human life, property, and infrastructure. Modeling runoff response in complex and heterogeneous urban areas, while accounting for rainstorm and surface characteristics, remains a significant challenge. Climate change and urbanization are key drivers of increased future urban runoff intensity. Research on the interaction between these factors and urban runoff in the eastern Mediterranean region is particularly limited. Previous studies using high-resolution models have projected an increase in short-duration rainfall intensities, alongside a decrease in long-duration intensities, rainfall coverage area, and total event rainfall during HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean under the RCP8.5 scenario. The current study examines the implications of these changes on peak discharge and volume of urban runoff by the end of the 21st century and evaluates the influence of varying urbanization scenarios, providing insights into the interplay between climate change and urban development. Using high-resolution radar-rainfall and surface data, we developed and calibrated a SWMM-based urban rainfall-runoff model for the Nahal Ra'anana basin (13 km²) on Israel's coastal plane. This Mediterranean-climate region encompasses most of the city of Ra'anana and has approximately 40% impervious surfaces. The model was developed using 23 runoff events utilizing leave-one-out cross-validation and a multi-objective optimization approach, and demonstrated robust performance with KGE values of 0.80 for runoff peak discharge and 0.83 for total runoff volume. A variance-based sensitivity analysis identified three primary factors influencing urban runoff: rainstorm intensity distribution, impervious surface coverage, and basin water storage. Analysis of HPEs under historical and future climatic conditions revealed that, at the current urbanization level of the city, climate change alone is unlikely to alter peak or total runoff discharge significantly. This is attributed to the decrease in total event rainfall and coverage area, alongside an increase in short-duration rainfall intensities. However, with substantial urbanization (e.g., increasing impervious surface to 52% or more), future climate HPEs are expected to exhibit a noticeable shift in the trend, leading to increased peak discharge. Further analysis indicates the elevated importance of rainfall intensities in determining runoff peaks in future climate conditions. In historical HPEs the maximum rainfall intensities over a 60-minute duration strongly correlate with peak runoff discharge (R2=0.75), where in future climate HPEs, correlations of shorter and longer rainfall durations are improved compared to historical HPEs with the maximum obtained for 60–120-minute durations (R2=0.81). The non-linear discharge response to climate change underscores the importance of integrating climate projections into urban planning to mitigate future flooding risks and highlight the potential for short-term peak discharge forecasting under both current and future climatic conditions.

 

How to cite: Nussbaum, R., Armon, M., and Morin, E.: Urban runoff response to climate-change-driven heavy precipitation and urbanization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-841, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-841, 2025.

EGU25-1018 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Statistical Downscaling Techniques and Projection of Future Climate Extremes in the Sudano Sahelian Environment 

Ibrahim Njouenwet and Jérémy Lavarenne

The Sudano-Sahelian Region of Cameroon (SSRC) faces significant challenges due to high rainfall variability and rapid population growth. Despite long-standing adaptation strategies, the region's vulnerability to climate variability and change remains a critical concern, prompting extensive research and calls for greater adaptation funding. In Sahelian West Africa, the decline in rainfall stations has significantly reduced data availability, hindering the calibration and evaluation of climate models and limiting their ability to accurately represent the region's climate. However, there are notable discrepancies between global and regional models regarding projected changes in precipitation patterns across specific regions and seasons, particularly in areas like the Eastern Sahel region, which includes the SSRC. Bias correction (BC) and downscaling (DS) are crucial, as these bias can be propagated into impact models. This study aims to fill the gap of localized and reliable information for climate services in the Sudano Sahelian region.

Using high-resolution rainfall data from NoCORA—daily interpolated rainfall maps for Northern Cameroon based on 418 stations (1948–2022) at 0.01° resolution (Jérémy et al., 2023)—the 25-km resolution regional climate models derived from a CMIP5 model are employed to better capture the climatology of extreme precipitation events, with kilometer-scale bias correction applied to outputs over the study area. Additionally, a subset of CMIP6 simulations is statistically downscaled to evaluate local-scale model uncertainties and compare the effectiveness of statistical and dynamical downscaling methods.

This study evaluates the performance of four state-of-the-art statistical downscaling techniques namely Linear Scaling, CDF-t, Quantile Mapping and Quantile DeltaMapping using different metrics and compares extreme precipitation changes under climate change scenarios to identify a suitable method for correcting bias in climate models projections for the period 2005-2100. The findings of this study will help impact modelers by enhancing the application of bias adjustment methods, thereby supporting the development of robust local climate change impact assessments in agriculture and hydrology domains.

Keywords : extreme precipitation, biais correction, Statistical downscaling, climate models

How to cite: Njouenwet, I. and Lavarenne, J.: Statistical Downscaling Techniques and Projection of Future Climate Extremes in the Sudano Sahelian Environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1018, 2025.

EGU25-2058 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Refining Rainfall Erosivity Estimation: Methodological improvements towards more accurate soil erosion assessments 

Athanasios Serafeim, Roberto Deidda, Paolo Nasta, Nunzio Romano, Dario Pumo, and Andreas Langousis

Rainfall erosivity is a fundamental parameter in estimating soil erosion as it quantifies the potential of raindrops to detach soil particles and make them available for subsequent transport by surface runoff. Erosivity depends mainly on the intensity, duration, and energy of precipitation events, which directly affect the impact of raindrops on the soil surfaces and runoff. The most common methods for identifying erosive events emphasize short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events, while introducing critical thresholds for characterizing erosive events, such as the 30-minute maximum rainfall intensity (I30) and storm separation criteria (see e.g. Wischmeier and Smith, 1978, Foster et al., 1981 and Renard et al., 1997).

Nevertheless, both historical and recently proposed frameworks occasionally consolidate rainfall events that should be disaggregated according to the established six-hour dry period threshold, leading to overestimation of rainfall event durations and erosivity factors. The present study aims at refining the identification and analysis of erosive rainfall events, a key component of soil erosion prediction, by introducing an alternative approach that strictly adheres to the original criteria introduced by Wischmeier and Smith (1978) and Renard et al. (1997), ensuring precise segmentation of rainfall events when rainfall accumulation is below the 1.27 mm threshold over a six-hour period.

The proposed method classifies rainfall events as erosive when total rainfall exceeds 12.7 mm or meets intensity thresholds of 6.4 mm in 15 minutes or 12.7 mm in 30 minutes. Comparative analysis with existing approaches demonstrates improved alignment with fundamental criteria while addressing modern computational challenges, contributing to the advancement of soil erosion prediction by bridging historical methodologies with contemporary analytical precision.

References

Wischmeier, W.H., Smith, D. D. (1978) Predicting rainfall erosion losses: A guide to conservation planning. Agric. Handb. 537. US Gov. Print. Office, Washington, DC.

Foster, G.R., McCool, D.K., Renard, K.G., Moldenhauer, W.C. (1981) Conversion of the universal soil loss equation to SI metric units. J. Soil Water Conserv. 36, 355–359.

Renard, K., Foster, G., Weesies, G., McCool, D. and Yoder, D. (1997) Predicting Soil Erosion by Water: A Guide to Conservation Planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). US Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Handbook No.703USDA, USDA, Washington DC.

How to cite: Serafeim, A., Deidda, R., Nasta, P., Romano, N., Pumo, D., and Langousis, A.: Refining Rainfall Erosivity Estimation: Methodological improvements towards more accurate soil erosion assessments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2058, 2025.

EGU25-2770 | Posters on site | HS7.2

A new tool for correcting the spatial and temporal pattern of global precipitation products across mountainous catchments: EcoProbSet Product 

Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Gaia Roati, Silvia Barbetta, and Riccardo Rigon

This study aims at integrating global precipitation data into hydrological models at the catchment scale, a common practice in hydrological research. Specifically, the study investigates how biased spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation data affect model performance and uncertainty. The European Meteorological Observations (EMO) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) global datasets are utilized as inputs for the GEOframe-NewAGE hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes of the mountainous Aosta Valley catchment in northwestern Italy. Subsequently, the uncertainty of the hydrological model forced with global precipitation data is assessed using a proposed method called Empirical Conditional Probability (EcoProb). The results show that, although traditional performance metrics suggest similar outcomes for the model forced with EMO and CHIRPS, the proposed uncertainty analysis reveals higher uncertainty when CHIRPS is used as the precipitation input. To leverage all useful information in the global precipitation data, the spatial correlation of CHIRPS is combined with a subset of raingauges using the EcoProb method to modify the EMO precipitation data. This approach enables the integration of the advantages of EMO and CHIRPS, which offer higher temporal and spatial correlation with ground observation, respectively, into a unified precipitation product. The combined dataset, referred to as the EcoProbSet product in this study, outperforms both the CHIRPS and EMO products, reducing the uncertainty introduced into hydrological models compared to the original global datasets.

How to cite: Azimi, S., Massari, C., Roati, G., Barbetta, S., and Rigon, R.: A new tool for correcting the spatial and temporal pattern of global precipitation products across mountainous catchments: EcoProbSet Product, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2770, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2770, 2025.

EGU25-3254 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Exploring Hourly Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate 

Marc Lennartz and Benjamin Poschlod

Previous research shows that for limited sample sizes applying the simplified metastatistical extreme value (sMEV) distribution instead of the more commonly used general extreme value (GEV) distribution can significantly reduce the associated uncertainty in rainfall return levels. Recent literature has also highlighted the possibility to analyze the effects of climate change using the non-stationary version of the sMEV distribution. Thus, the objective of this study is to test the performance of the sMEV and GEV for hourly precipitation using a convection-permitting regional climate model. The global climate model MIROC5 is employed to drive the regional climate model COSMO over the greater Germany area for the past, near future, and distant future. It is set up at a high temporal and spatial resolution allowing it to explicitly resolve deep convection, which is important when assessing extreme hourly precipitation. No comparable time series from a convection-permitting model has previously been analyzed using the sMEV distribution. The results show that the sMEV performs much better than the GEV in terms of the uncertainty for almost all return periods regardless of the observational years available. In addition, there is a north-south gradient in the return level difference, the uncertainty difference and the adequacy of the left-censoring threshold chosen for the sMEV. Investigating non-stationary versions of the sMEV and GEV shows that the non-stationary sMEV is more suitable to describing the change in return levels. However, both implemented versions of the non-stationary distributions are limited by the complexity of the temperature dependency. Therefore, we recommend a careful application for the prediction of return levels under higher temperatures. 

How to cite: Lennartz, M. and Poschlod, B.: Exploring Hourly Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3254, 2025.

EGU25-3262 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

How IDF Relations Changed in the Past and How They Will Change in the Future 

Felix Fauer and Henning Rust

We investigate intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relations. They describe the major statistical characteristics of extreme precipitation events (return level, return period, time scale) and provide information on the probability of exceedance of certain precipitation intensities. IDF relations help to visualize either how extreme (in terms of probability/frequency/return period) a specific event is or which intensity is expected for a given probability. We model the distribution of extreme precipitation in an extreme-value statistics setting. To increase model efficiency, we include the duration and model a duration-dependent GEV. The durations range from minutes to days and are modeled in one single model in order to prevent quantile-crossing and to assure that estimated quantiles are consistent. This way, we are capable of considering large-scale influences by using covariates for the GEV parameters.

The influence of climate change is included by letting the GEV parameters (covariates) depend on the covariates NAO, temperature, humidity, blocking and year (as a proxy for climate change). We found an increase in probability of extreme precipitation with year and temperature, while the effect of the other variables depends on the season. We present a downscaling approach under the perfect-prognosis assumption as a proof-of-concept, where we use future values of large-scale covariates from climate projections to derive future GEV distributions. This poses some challenges because the polynomial dependencies of the past might not hold for an extrapolation into the future. Right now, our model is based on measurement stations, but we will give an outlook how we plan to include gridded datasets of precipitation observations or reanalyses.

How to cite: Fauer, F. and Rust, H.: How IDF Relations Changed in the Past and How They Will Change in the Future, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3262, 2025.

EGU25-4086 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Can discharge be used to inversely correct precipitation? 

Ashish Manoj J, Ralf Loritz, Hoshin Gupta, and Erwin Zehe

This study explores the feasibility of using the information contained in observed streamflow discharge measurements to inversely correct catchment-average precipitation time series provided by reanalysis products. We explore this possibility by training LSTM models to predict precipitation. The first model uses discharge as an input feature along with other meteorological factors, while the second model uses only the meteorological factors. Although the model provided with discharge information showed better mean performance, a detailed analysis of various time series measures across the continental scale revealed underestimation biases when compared with the original reanalysis product used for training. However, an out-of-sample test showed that the inversely estimated precipitation is better able to reproduce small-scale, high-impact events that are poorly represented in the original reanalysis product. Further, using the inversely generated precipitation time series for classical hydrological “forward” modeling resulted in improved estimates for streamflow and soil moisture. Given the notable disconnect between reanalysis products and extreme events, particularly in data-scarce regions worldwide, our findings have implications for achieving better estimates of precipitation associated with high-impact events.

How to cite: Manoj J, A., Loritz, R., Gupta, H., and Zehe, E.: Can discharge be used to inversely correct precipitation?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4086, 2025.

EGU25-4684 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Precipitation-driven storm types and their climatology across the Alpine range 

Georgia Papacharalampous, Eleonora Dallan, Moshe Armon, Joydeb Saha, Colin Price, Marco Borga, and Francesco Marra

The separation of storms into physically meaningful classes, including the key distinction between convective and non-convective events, is crucial for advancing precipitation science. Indeed, each of these classes may necessitate different modelling strategies, or distinct bias adjustment procedures for climate model simulations. Here, we present a large-scale study that aimed at achieving this separation only based on information from precipitation timeseries. We focused on a vast set of sub-hourly rain gauge records collected from four countries across the Alpine region and extracted hundreds of thousands of storms. We used an unsupervised clustering algorithm based on a small set of features to organize the storms into storm types. Despite the simplicity of the clustering approach, we successfully distinguished convective storms from other types, as validated using independent features that were not involved in the clustering, such as lightning counts. We analyzed the climatology of the storm types, including investigations of their spatial coherence and temporal changes in their occurrence. Overall, we believe that the storm clusters we provide can be used for several purposes, ranging from developing stochastic models tailored on the storm types of interests to improving bias adjustment methods for climate simulations. Given its simplicity and versatility, the framework can be transferred to other regions globally, with marginal adjustments based on the prior knowledge of the regional climatology and on the research objectives.

Our study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Papacharalampous, G., Dallan, E., Armon, M., Saha, J., Price, C., Borga, M., and Marra, F.: Precipitation-driven storm types and their climatology across the Alpine range, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4684, 2025.

EGU25-4866 | Orals | HS7.2

Toward the stochastic modelling of extreme precipitation probability with thermodynamic and dynamic covariates 

Francesco Marra, Riccardo Ciceri, Samuele Stante, and Cinzia Sada

To properly adapt to climate change, we need to estimate extreme precipitation probability in future climate scenarios. The task is particularly challenging for sub-daily and sub-hourly extremes, as they are hardly represented by most of the available climate models. As an alternative to explicit model simulations, one can use stochastic models trained on physical covariates. For example, it was recently shown that we can predict changes in sub-daily and sub-hourly extreme precipitation only based on shifts in wet-day daily temperatures. With the aim of extending the applicability of such stochastic models, we examine here the use of covariates representing both thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

We focus on a set of ~300 stations in the Alps (from France, Switzerland, Austria, Italy) for which we have sub-daily precipitation and temperature observations. First, we assess the importance of statistical independence of the events on the identification of the scaling relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature that are commonly used to quantify the thermodynamic component. Then, we evaluate the relative importance of the thermodynamic and dynamic components for durations ranging between 10 minutes and 24 hours using as covariates dew point, vertical velocity at 500 hPa, and divergence at 300 hPa from ERA5 reanalysis simulations.

Our results show that (1) evaluating extreme precipitation-temperature scaling relations using all the wet time intervals (as done in several studies) leads to biased estimates of the scaling rates relevant for extreme sub-daily precipitation projections. (2) The scaling rates between extreme precipitation and dew point tend to decrease logarithmically with duration, an information that can be used to extract the scaling rate at sub-hourly durations from hourly observations. (3) The importance of the thermodynamic component decreases with duration (rank correlation decreases from ~0.55 at 10 minutes to ~0.2 at 24 hours), while the importance of the dynamic component that can be appreciated at the ERA5 resolution (~30 km) tends to increase with duration (rank correlation increases from ~0.2 at 10 minutes to ~0.45 at 24 hours). (4) From a stochastic simulation perspective, temperatures and dew point during precipitation events in the Alps can be simulated using generalized normal distributions (or normal distributions in case of seasonal data), while vertical velocities and divergence need to be simulated using skewed models such as a generalized extreme value distribution. 

How to cite: Marra, F., Ciceri, R., Stante, S., and Sada, C.: Toward the stochastic modelling of extreme precipitation probability with thermodynamic and dynamic covariates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4866, 2025.

EGU25-5084 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Development of Rainfall Scenario with Transition Probability Reflecting on Temporal Distribution of Heavy Rainstorm Events 

Hoyoung Cha, Jongjin Baik, Jinwook Lee, Wooyoung Na, and Changhyun Jun

  This study proposes a method utilizing Rainfall Transition Probability (RTP) to create rainfall scenarios that consider the temporal distribution of heavy rainstorm events. RTP refers to the probability of rainfall amount at time t occurring after a specific rainfall amount at time t+1. The method consists of a temporal distribution that builds region-specific RTPs using rainfall data observed at 1-minute interval, a function that users define the desired conditions for the rainfall scenario, and a processing module that generates scenarios based on the RTP. To develop the RTP, the rainfall data about 1-minute interval used for separating Independent Rainstorm Events (IREs) according to each region. Among the identified IREs, those exhibiting high-intensity rainfall (above 15 mm/hour) are used to calculate and establish the RTP. Afterward, users define the conditions for the rainfall scenario in the function with conditions such as region, total rainfall, and rainfall duration. The generator then utilizes the RTP for the selected region to generate various rainfall scenarios with different temporal distributions and presents them to the user. By extracting the temporal distribution from regional IREs, the generator reflects local rainfall patterns and can be applied to regional hydrological modelling.

Keywords: Rainfall Generator, Rainfall Transition Probability, 1-minute Rainfall Data, Temporal Distribution, Heavy Rainstorm Events

 

Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (RS-2024-00334564).

 

How to cite: Cha, H., Baik, J., Lee, J., Na, W., and Jun, C.: Development of Rainfall Scenario with Transition Probability Reflecting on Temporal Distribution of Heavy Rainstorm Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5084, 2025.

Abstract

In this study was investigated three different microphysics schemes on the rainfall patterns over Kuwait on 02 January 2022. The primary objective is to improve precipitation predictions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) high resolution 4 km model, which has been dynamically downscaled from the Community Climate Model version 4 (CCM4). The performance of three selected microphysics schemes—Lin, WSM6, and Thompson was evaluated using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. ERA5 has been previously validated in this region and has consistently provided reliable results, making it a suitable dataset for such studies. Three numerical simulations were conducted using the WRF model, each incorporating one of the three microphysics schemes. The simulations were assessed by comparing the model outputs against the ERA5 data to determine the accuracy of the rainfall forecasts. The results revealed that the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6) outperformed the other microphysics schemes, including Lin and Thompson, in forecasting rainfall patterns during the storm. The Lin scheme was found to be the least reliable, providing less accurate rainfall predictions compared to the Thompson and WSM6 schemes. This study highlights the critical role of selecting appropriate microphysics schemes for accurate precipitation prediction, particularly in extreme weather events like the 2022 storm in Kuwait. The findings suggest that the WSM6 scheme is a more effective choice for rainfall forecasting in this region, whereas the Lin scheme may not be as suitable for this particular type of storm event. Further research is recommended to extend this analysis to different regions and storms for more comprehensive results.

How to cite: Alsarraf, H.: Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes for Precipitation Forecasting in an Arid Region: A Case Study Over Kuwait, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5123, 2025.

EGU25-6812 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Comparison and evaluation of different precipitation products in capturing climate extremes in Kamp Catchment, Austria 

Zryab Babker, Morteza Zagar, Tim G. Reichenau, Mohammed Basheer, and Karl Schneider

The availability of accurate long-term gap-free precipitation data at high spatiotemporal resolutions is crucial for hydroclimatic extremes assessment, water resources management, infrastructure design, hydrological modeling, and evaluation of climate change impacts. However, many ground precipitation data contain gaps, which can hinder accurate assessments and analyses. Therefore, different gridded precipitation products (PPs) are promising alternatives to overcome this deficiency, especially in heterogeneous regions with different terrains where ground observations are sparse or non-existent. This study evaluates four daily precipitation products, i.e., SPARTACUS, IMERG-V07, CHIRPS-V2.0, and ERA5-land, to determine their performance in representing observed patterns, the intensity, and frequency of extreme precipitation events in Kamp Catchment in Austria for the period 1998-2020 at different temporal scales. The Kamp River is the longest in the “Waldviertel” region and has key ecological, societal, and economic functions, with many popular leisure and excursion destinations for tourism. The catchment also frequently experiences severe floods, causing adverse socioeconomic impacts. Ground-based precipitation data from 33 stations distributed within and around the catchment are used to conduct point-to-pixel evaluation for the four products. To measure the disparity between the products and the ground observations, six performance metrics were used: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Correlation coefficient (r), and Willmott index of agreement (d). The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation reflected by the four evaluated PPs are assessed using selected extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The PPs were ranked to select the best-performing product in the study area. The ranking results of the performance metrics revealed that SPARTACUS is the top-performing product on a daily and monthly scale and in capturing the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes, followed by IMERG-V07 and ERA5-land, whereas CHIRPS-V2.0 ranked the lowest. SPARTACUS showed superior performance across the catchment with the highest correlation with the observed data and lowest bias (on daily and monthly scales, mean r values are 0.92 and 0.96 and mean MBE values are -0.02 and -0.81, respectively). Other products exhibit systematic precipitation underestimation. Regarding capturing precipitation extremes, all products show low skills and overestimate the daily extreme precipitation events, with the highest NSE of -0.32 shown in SPARTACUS. CHIRPS-V2.0 and ERA5-land presented different performances for detecting the longest wet and dry spells in the catchment. CHIRPS-V2.0 overestimated the consecutive dry days (CDD) and underestimated the consecutive wet days (CWD), whereas ERA5-land shows the opposite pattern. SPARTACUS shows minor overestimation of CDD and underestimation of CWD (MBE = -0.09 and 0.13 mm, respectively). Accordingly, a simple drought assessment was performed in the catchment using SPARTACUS data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Our results highlight the importance of site-specific validation before using any precipitation products.

This study is conducted within the frame of the DISTENDER project (EU Horizon-ID 101056836), where climate extremes and climate change impacts upon several European catchments are analyzed and robust adaptation strategies are developed.

 

Keywords: Precipitation extremes, Precipitation products, Point-to-pixel evaluation, SPI, Kamp catchment, Austria

How to cite: Babker, Z., Zagar, M., G. Reichenau, T., Basheer, M., and Schneider, K.: Comparison and evaluation of different precipitation products in capturing climate extremes in Kamp Catchment, Austria, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6812, 2025.

EGU25-7599 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Prior knowledge-constrained deep learning for probabilistic precipitation downscaling 

Dayang Li, Long Yang, Baoxiang Pan, Yuan Liu, and Yan Zhou

Precipitation downscaling, particularly at convection-permitting scales (less than 4 km), is highly uncertain. This is especially pronounced in mountainous regions due to the interplay of complex topography and atmospheric dynamics. It impedes reliable estimation of variability and risks in localized extreme rainstorms. Deep learning-based downscaling methods have gained increasing attention but have primarily focused on deterministic prediction, which fails to capture uncertainty. Here we developed a novel Probabilistic High-resolution Precipitation Downscaling Network (P-HRDNet) with prior knowledge of key precipitation characteristics to design its loss function and model architecture. This knowledge includes data imbalance, skewed distribution, heteroscedasticity, and spatial and temporal dependencies of precipitation. P-HRDNet was tested in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, a mountainous region lacking high-resolution precipitation data. Ten-year WRF simulations with nested domains provided coarse (9 km) and fine resolution (1 km) daily precipitation to train P-HRDNet. Compared with a baseline model SRCNN, P-HRDNet achieved greater accuracy in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error, and Pearson correlation coefficient. Besides, it offers better uncertainty coverage and narrower uncertainty widths. This superiority is particularly evident in the extreme values. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating prior knowledge of precipitation characteristics into deep learning, and has a potential to physically constrain Artitifical-Intelligience (AI) based weather forecasting models. Furthermore, our WRF-AI framework offers an efficient solution for obtaining reliable high-resolution precipitation estimates in poorly gauged regions.

How to cite: Li, D., Yang, L., Pan, B., Liu, Y., and Zhou, Y.: Prior knowledge-constrained deep learning for probabilistic precipitation downscaling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7599, 2025.

Summer precipitation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) has exhibited a dipolar trend over the past 50 years. Understanding its future changes and underlying mechanisms relies heavily on climate models. However, the impact and mechanisms of model resolution on the simulation of long-term precipitation trends over the HMA remain underexplored. In this study, we use six pairs of models with high- and low-resolution comparisons from the CMIP6 all-forcing experiments to investigate the resolution-dependent differences in the long-term trends of summer precipitation from 1951 to 2024. The results show that compared to low-resolution models, the simulations from high-resolution models are closer to observations, with the largest improvement in the southern margin of the HMA and surrounding areas (STP), where the wet bias is reduced by approximately 65%.  The moisture budget, moist static energy budget, and mixed-layer heat budget are used to explore the mechanism behind this reduction in wet bias. High-resolution models, with their enhanced ability to simulate oceanic advection and mixing, can capture the central-warm and eastern-cool tropical Indian Ocean SST pattern better. This SST pattern suppresses precipitation over Malaysia and the South China Sea, triggering Rossby waves that generate an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Bay of Bengal. The anticyclone then transports dry air to the STP, suppressing local convection and reducing wet bias. Our study emphasizes the importance of simulating Indian Ocean warming for accurately representing long-term precipitation trends over HMA.

How to cite: li, L.: Precipitation Trends over southern High Mountain Asia affected by Indian Ocean warming: Insights from high- and low-resolution versions of CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7737, 2025.

EGU25-7792 | Posters on site | HS7.2

Statistical downscaling of hourly precipitation in South Korea using the MS-PRISM method 

Maeng-Ki Kim, Sang Jeong, and Youngseok Lee

In this study, we developed a grid climate dataset with a horizontal resolution of 500m × 500m for South Korea, utilizing observational station data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The high-resolution 500m data were calculated using a newly developed Multi-Step (MS) PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) method, which enhances the Modified Korean (MK) PRISM—a statistical downscaling technique for estimating high-resolution gridded data from observational data. First, to produce high-resolution hourly precipitation data, we performed quality control on the hourly precipitation observation data to select valid entries. Next, we created geographic information data, including Digital Elevation Model (DEM), aspect, and coastal proximity, all at a resolution of 500m. This geographic data was then applied to the MS-PRISM method to calculate hourly precipitation data at the same resolution. To confirm the reliability of the 500m resolution hourly precipitation produced, we conducted a verification of the final estimated data. We compared and analyzed the daily precipitation estimation errors as well as the hourly precipitation estimation errors at the same spatial resolution. Additionally, we evaluated the estimation results based on changes in spatiotemporal resolution by comparing the estimation errors associated with different spatial resolutions while maintaining the same temporal resolution.

How to cite: Kim, M.-K., Jeong, S., and Lee, Y.: Statistical downscaling of hourly precipitation in South Korea using the MS-PRISM method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7792, 2025.

EGU25-8629 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Correction of Precipitation Bias from Convection-Permitting Models at the Station Scale in Switzerland 

Lauren Cook, Trang Nguyen, Andreas Dietzel, and Patricio Velasquez

Unlike regional climate models, convection-permitting models (CPMs) are able to resolve convection-scale processes and therefore better estimate short-duration, extreme precipitation events, particularly useful for the urban drainage community. Despite their state-of-the-art capabilities, bias correction of CPMs is still required to ensure their output is representative of the station scale, a resolution needed by many urban drainage models. Due to its simplicity, quantile-mapping is commonly used for bias-correction and downscaling, but does come with limitations that have not yet been evaluated for CPMs. This study tests five variations of empirical quantile-mapping to bias-correct and downscale the 2.2 km simulations of COSMO-CLM (a CPM) for over 70 weather stations in Switzerland. Ten years of simulation data are corrected using ten years of observations at the 30-minute interval. Traditional QM and several advanced versions are evaluated, including: using a 91-day moving window to account for temporal variability, spatial pooling of surrounding grid cells for spatial variability, and extending the observational record (to 30 years) for data variability. These techniques are validated using cross-validation and through evaluation of historical rainfall indices (e.g., consecutive dry days) and the climate change signal. Findings show that wet biases in raw CPM output remain (up to 30-35 mm/hour above the 98th quantile) and only the moving window technique (and its combination with spatial pooling) is able to reduce biases in quantiles above the 98th. All QM methods do reduce remaining biases, but can distort the climate change signal, particularly in indices related to frequency of rainfall. Despite the additional computational burden, the moving window technique is highly recommended to the urban drainage community as a robust technique for CPM downscaling. As more CPM simulations become available, future work will reexamine these aspects for a range of CPMs, time periods, and simulation domains.

How to cite: Cook, L., Nguyen, T., Dietzel, A., and Velasquez, P.: Correction of Precipitation Bias from Convection-Permitting Models at the Station Scale in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8629, 2025.

EGU25-9341 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Decadal climatology and trends in global oceanic precipitation from 27 satellite and reanalysis datasets 

Si Cheng, Lisa Alexander, and Steven Sherwood

Understanding changes in global oceanic precipitation remains challenging due to limitations in current observational datasets and model deficiencies, particularly in the representation of cloud and precipitation properties within oceanic regions. To address this, we examined climatologies and trends in oceanic precipitation between 2001 and 2020 using a collection of 27 state-of-the-art satellite and reanalysis datasets available on a uniform daily 1°×1° resolution from the Frequent Rainfall Observations on Grids (FROGS) database. The results showed that reanalysis datasets generally report higher annual mean daily precipitation than satellite datasets. The tropical region exhibits the greatest absolute discrepancies in precipitation rates, while arid regions such as the southeast Pacific and Atlantic show significant relative differences among products. An increasing trend is primarily observed in satellite products, whereas reanalyses suggest strong declines. Taken together, reanalyses show pronounced decreases over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic, contradicting the “wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” (WWDD) pattern. In contrast, the satellites better align with the WWDD pattern, with over half of oceanic regions meeting this expectation. The precipitation trend in the combined reanalysis products also exhibits the weakest consistency with sea surface temperature (SST) trends in wet regions (34.2%), compared with dry regions in the reanalysis cluster (53.4%) and both wet (59.6%) and dry (58.5%) regions in the satellite cluster. We recommend using an ensemble of satellite products for investigating global oceanic precipitation while exercising greater caution when utilizing reanalysis datasets.

How to cite: Cheng, S., Alexander, L., and Sherwood, S.: Decadal climatology and trends in global oceanic precipitation from 27 satellite and reanalysis datasets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9341, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9341, 2025.

EGU25-9859 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Drizzle Bias adjustment in climate models: A simple two-step downscaling approach 

Matteo Sangiorgio, Roberto Caspani, Lorenzo Scarpellini, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

Precipitation is a key variable for assessing the impacts of climate change across diverse sectors, from hydrology to ecology. However, climate models frequently overestimate the occurrence of light precipitation events—days or hours that should be dry are instead assigned a low rainfall rate. This pervasive issue, known as the “drizzle bias” or “drizzle problem” in climate science, undermines the reliability of climate impact assessments.

Traditional bias correction methods, such as linear scaling or empirical quantile mapping, address overall precipitation distributions but often fail to properly account for the frequency and duration of wet and dry periods. As a result, these methods may improve precipitation totals but fail to correct the skewed distribution of rainy events.

In this study, we propose a simple yet effective two-step statistical downscaling approach to address the drizzle bias. The first step aligns the frequency of wet and dry periods by assuming equivalence between observed and simulated rain frequencies. The second step corrects the precipitation distribution exclusively for wet samples.

We apply this methodology to a range of climate data products, including ERA5 Land reanalyses, as well as simulations from global circulation models (GCMs), regional circulation models (RCMs), and convection-permitting models (CPMs). Our analysis focuses on multiple measurement stations in Northern Italy, encompassing urban contexts such as Milan and mountainous contexts in the Italian Alps. Results reveal that drizzle bias is a widespread issue across these datasets, regardless of the modeling framework.

The findings demonstrate that our two-step downscaling approach effectively adjusts for drizzle bias, significantly improving the statistical fidelity of precipitation projections. This approach offers a straightforward and practical solution for enhancing the reliability of climate model outputs, enabling more robust assessments of climate change impacts across sectors sensitive to precipitation variability.

How to cite: Sangiorgio, M., Caspani, R., Scarpellini, L., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Drizzle Bias adjustment in climate models: A simple two-step downscaling approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9859, 2025.

EGU25-10165 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Removal of interfering RLAN signals from C-band weather radar data 

Krystian Specht, Katarzyna Ośródka, Jan Szturc, and Włodzimierz Freda

The algorithm of removing interfering RLAN signals (so called spikes) in weather radar data is implemented in the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW) as a component of the RADVOL-QC system for the radar data quality control. Eliminating the interfering signals in C-band (5 GHz) radars is important for accurate weather monitoring. The main difficulty in spike removal are their unique shapes, and the task is especially challenging while they overlap the precipitation.

The process of detecting interference caused by signals from the RLAN network is carried out by evaluating the variability of echoes along and across the beam for each bin at various elevation angles. Such echoes are considered potential spikes. For each azimuth, the number of bins containing potential spike echoes is determined. If this count exceeds the established threshold for a given azimuth, the echoes are treated as real spikes.

The spike correction process consists of analyzing each bin with detected real spike and its surroundings. The analysis extends to bins in adjacent and further azimuths on left and right until bins without detected spikes are encountered. Depending on the specific case, these echoes may be replaced with an arithmetic mean if classified as precipitation or removed entirely. While removing spikes, the analysis extends to adjacent azimuths within a range of 3 to 4 bins on either side to ensure accurate identification and removal of false echoes. This extended analysis considers potential anomalies in adjacent data that may have been overlooked during the detection process.

Examples of applied techniques are presented using the weather radar product maximum reflectivity (CMAX). The examples illustrate the enhancement of the radar data, where the extended analysis effectively eliminates RLAN interference that was not identified by the detection algorithm but falls within the analysis area. This improvement is crucial from a meteorological perspective, as high-quality radar data significantly impacts meteorological and hydrological models, leading to more accurate forecasts.

How to cite: Specht, K., Ośródka, K., Szturc, J., and Freda, W.: Removal of interfering RLAN signals from C-band weather radar data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10165, 2025.

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events due to global warming, such as heavy rainfall and consequent floods, underline the need for research on the driving factors of these extremes. Accurate simulations of meteorological extremes at convection-permitting scale are crucial for understanding their spatial and temporal characteristics. Recently, various studies have demonstrated the added value of using convection-permitting regional climate models to simulate extreme precipitation. Further improvements of these regional models can therefore lay the foundation for better impact assessment, as well as for developing adaptation measures to tackle climate change. 

In this study, we investigate the optimal model configuration for the regional climate model REMO2020-iMOVE to capture extreme precipitation events, using the heavy rainfall that led to the devastating Ahr valley flood of July 2021 as a case study. Our simulations are performed with the non-hydrostatic version of REMO with ERA5 reanalysis data as forcing at a horizontal resolution of 3 km. By including the vegetation module iMOVE, we aim to improve the representation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and, in a future step, investigate the effects of land use and land cover changes on extreme events. Here, we explore the impact of different model setups such as different domain sizes and initialization times on the simulation results. Furthermore, we validate our findings against observations and assess uncertainty within the model. This research provides insight into optimizing regional climate models to improve our understanding of extreme weather events. 

How to cite: Detjen, L., Rechid, D., and Böhner, J.: Optimizing convection-permitting model configurations for accurate simulation of extreme precipitation events with the regional climate model REMO-iMOVE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11604, 2025.

EGU25-12783 | Orals | HS7.2

Using LOCA to downscale precipitation over Europe 

Bridget Thrasher

Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) is a statistical downscaling technique that uses a multiple scale approach to determine appropriate local analogs from historical data. It was developed with a particular focus on the preservation of extreme events that were dampened or lost altogether when employing earlier analog methods. The LOCA method has been used to produce relatively high-resolution projections of precipitation over the coterminous United States for use in hydrologic applications but has never been applied over Europe. In this presentation we will describe the method in detail and show how it is being utilized to downscale CMIP6 precipitation to 1 arcmin x 1 arcmin horizontal resolution over the continent using the European Meteorological Observations (EMO-1) gridded dataset as the analog pool. Lastly, we will compare the LOCA output to that from other downscaled products. 

How to cite: Thrasher, B.: Using LOCA to downscale precipitation over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12783, 2025.

EGU25-12929 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Reanalysis Data in Hydrological Applications: A Case Study from Georgia 

Andrea Nobile, Francesca Zanello, Francesco Lubrano, Matteo Nicolini, and Elisa Arnone

Reanalysis data have proven to be a valuable support for hydrologic modeling and calculation of standardized climate indices, useful tools for characterizing local climate regimes and improving water resource management in areas with limited availability of observational data.

This study examines the use of ERA5 dataset emphasizing bias correction techniques to enhance their applicability and understanding their limits in a case study in Georgia. The work assesses the effectiveness of five bias correction techniques - Linear Scaling (LS), Empirical Quantile Mapping (QM-EMP), Quantile Mapping Spline Bias Correction (QM-SBC), Mean Bias Subtraction (MBS), and Simple Linear Regression (SLR) - each examined through two different bias correction approaches: classical and sliding window, applied to daily and monthly reanalysis time series. Observational climate data are scarce in Georgia, therefore the opportunity of using reanalysis data for hydrological studies is of great interest for engineering applications.

In this study, performed in collaboration with Idrostudi S.r.l., one of the foremost European engineering professional services consulting firms, the extraction of ERA5 data for the entire nation of Georgia was performed automatically by developed algorithms that also allowed to do bias correction. The algorithms, developed using the open-source programming language R, employ observed data collected by five meteorological stations across diverse climatic zones of Georgia to test and compare different bias correction methodologies. The aim is to validate the performance of bias correction methods to improve the accuracy of rainfall data generated by ERA5 reanalysis model at daily and monthly scales. The techniques were evaluated carrying out two experiments, i.e. using (i) the complete datasets and (ii) the series that were split into a calibration and validation subset; metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were used to assess the performance. The dataset undergoes a calibration phase using 70% of the data to tune the bias correction methods, followed by a validation phase with the remaining 30% to test their effectiveness.

Results demonstrate that bias correction improves the quality of reanalysis data, dealing to enhanced reliability for hydrological modelling and climate index computation. The LS method has emerged as the most effective among classical techniques for bias correction in daily-scale reanalysis data when all data are available. The introduction of the Sliding Window approach has further enhanced the performance of all techniques, adapting the correction to local variations and improving accuracy for daily precipitation events. It is important to note, however, that at a monthly scale, the classic approach to bias correction already proves to be sufficiently reliable. Therefore, further enhancements through the sliding window approach are not deemed necessary for monthly corrections. In the experiment (ii), techniques such as QM-EMP, QM-SBC, and SLR proved to be more suitable for applications in climatic contexts with high variability and fragmentation. This underlines the importance of selecting the appropriate bias correction technique based on the quality and availability of data, as well as the specific objectives of the analysis. Further studies are needed for a further optimization of bias correction approaches.

How to cite: Nobile, A., Zanello, F., Lubrano, F., Nicolini, M., and Arnone, E.: Reanalysis Data in Hydrological Applications: A Case Study from Georgia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12929, 2025.

EGU25-13830 | Posters on site | HS7.2

Considerations in multifractal downscaling of rainfall: canonical vs. microcanonical cascades 

Alin Andrei Carsteanu, Stergios Emmanouil, Andreas Langousis, and Roberto Deidda

Disaggregation of rainfall time series focuses on preserving the statistical properties of those small-scale intensities, which are being downscaled from measured large-scale values. Multifractal scaling properties have offered, for a few decades already, a parsimonious framework for simulating the joint statistics observed in the small-scale values, and recent work emphasizes the use of more sophisticated cascading processes, in order to better capture all statistical requirements imposed (Cappelli et al., Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02827-8). Comparisons between downscaling models based on canonical vs. microcanonical cascades have been presented already more than two decades ago (see e.g. Molnar and Burlando, Atmos Res 77, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.10.024), but recent theoretical results (Aguilar-Flores and Carsteanu, Fractals 32, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218348X24500725) have prompted us to consider the importance of taking into account the asymptotic properties of the measures generated by canonical and microcanonical cascades, respectively, for downscaling purposes. The reflection of such properties in real-life rainfall data is being analyzed in the work communicated herein.

How to cite: Carsteanu, A. A., Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., and Deidda, R.: Considerations in multifractal downscaling of rainfall: canonical vs. microcanonical cascades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13830, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13830, 2025.

EGU25-13869 | Posters on site | HS7.2

MET Nordic Reanalysis data improves the performance of catchment-level hydrological models 

Csilla Farkas, Moritz Shore, Jessica Fennell, and Mojtaba Shafiei

High-quality input data is the foundation for good model performance, including catchment level hydrological models. The resolution and quality of meteorological data has a direct impact on modelling results and as such strongly influences the outcomes of scenario analyses of different types. Nowadays one can choose between different meteorological products when setting up a mathematical model, including direct measurements and reanalyses. The goal of this study was to test the ability of MET Nordic data, a reanalysis product from Met Norway, on improving the simulations of hydrological models.  The MET Nordic Reanalysis Dataset consists of post-processed products that (a) describe the current and past weather (reanalysis), and (b) gives a best estimate of the weather in the short-term future (forecasts). The products integrate output from MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) as well as measurements from various observational sources, including crowdsourced weather stations. 

Two different catchment models were set up and calibrated against measured discharge data. The SWAT+ model was applied in two Norwegian and one Danish catchment, while the CWatM model was tested in one Norwegian catchment. The model’s performance was compared when using input datasets from measuring stations and MET Nordic reanalysis data. We concluded that applying reanalysis data can significantly improve the performance of the tested models, therefore the use of these data in hydrological modelling is highly recommended.  

How to cite: Farkas, C., Shore, M., Fennell, J., and Shafiei, M.: MET Nordic Reanalysis data improves the performance of catchment-level hydrological models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13869, 2025.

Probabilistic radar-based precipitation nowcasting has become increasingly crucial for real-time hydrological applications due to its high accuracy at short lead time. However, its reliability for hydrological usage is limited by two major sources of error and uncertainty, both of which tend to exacerbate quickly with lead time. The first source lies in the limitations of nowcasting algorithms, including inaccuracies in rainfield advection and inadequate modeling of rain cell evolution. The second arises from discrepancies in precipitation measurements, referring to the differences between radar-derived estimates and rain gauge observations. Aligning these estimates with actual ground-level precipitation is vital for practical hydrological applications.

This study focuses on addressing the errors and uncertainties inherent in precipitation 'measurements', aiming to enhance the reliability of original nowcasts. Here, uncertainty refers to the range within which the true value is expected to fall at a given confidence level, while error denotes to the systematic bias between estimated and true values. The proposed methodologies utilise rain gauge data as the ground truth and employs the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) to generate radar-based ensemble nowcasts. To deal with these issues, an initial attempt was conducted with the Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) model. However, the model faces challenges in selecting an appropriate metric as the adjusted value, limiting the potential reduction in RMSE to approximately 5–10%. To overcome this limitation, a random forest (RF) regression model is proposed, as it can avoid predefined assumptions about rainfall intensity distribution. This model incorporates variables such as nowcasted rainfall intensity, orographic features, and meteorological parameters such as wind speed, wind direction, humidity, cloud type, and cloud base height (CBH), to estimate corresponding rain gauge measurements. At each rain gauge location, the error distribution is parametrised by comparing the original and adjusted rainfall intensities and fitting them to various probability functions. These parameters are then spatially interpolated using geostatistical techniques to generate an error map. The resulting error map is applied to correct the original nowcasts across the study area, enhancing their overall accuracy and reliability.

The United Kingdom, benefiting from its comprehensive and high-quality meteorological data, was selected as the study area. The 1-km UK C-band radar composite, derived from the Met Office Nimrod System, serve as the radar rainfall dataset for generating ensemble nowcasts. Rain gauge data and additional meteorological variables are sourced from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS) and the Met Office LIDARNET ceilometer network. Rainfall events from 2016 to 2022 are analysed, with events from 2016 to 2020 designated as the training period for developing random forest models and error maps. For validation, 20 events from 2021 to 2022 are selected to assess the performance of both the original and adjusted nowcasts. Preliminary results indicate that the adjusted ensemble nowcasts exhibit significantly improved alignment with rain gauge measurements compared to the original nowcasts. These findings highlight the potential of the proposed methodology to reduce both error and uncertainty in radar-based precipitation nowcasting, particularly for hydrological applications such as flood and landslide forecasting.

How to cite: Lin, H.-M. and Wang, L.-P.: Enhancing the applicability of radar-based precipitation nowcasting to hydrological applications with a machine-learning based error modelling method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14377, 2025.

EGU25-14564 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Blunt Extension and Dynamic Generation of Multifractal Cascade Fields Tree for Rainfall Drop Trajectories Simulations 

Chi-Ling Wei, Auguste Gires, and Li-Pen Wang

Precipitation variability at small space-time scales significantly influences hydrological processes, particularly in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas. Building on established methodologies for generating universal multifractal cascade fields, we propose an alternative approach that optimizes memory efficiency while maintaining the fidelity and flexibility of high-resolution simulations. Our method generates cascade fields dynamically, we call it Cascade Tree, which reduces memory usage by over 100 times compared to precomputing and storing full datasets. This improvement complements existing techniques by offering a scalable option for real-time applications.

 

To further enhance the realism of the simulated fields, we integrate the blunt extension of universal multifractals, which smooths transitions between far branches in Cascade Tree and addresses non-conservativeness in a computationally efficient manner. By leveraging GPU acceleration, we achieve rapid computation of cascade fields, enabling their use in simulating complex phenomena such as rainfall dynamics in turbulent wind fields.

 

The method is applied to simulate 3D trajectories and velocities of raindrops in a high-resolution multifractal turbulent wind field, using real wind field data to improve the applicability of the results. Our simulations capture the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and demonstrate the dispersion of over 100,000 raindrops across scales relevant to radar pixels and urban catchment hydrology.

 

This work provides new tools for exploring rainfall-driven processes, with applications ranging from downscaling radar precipitation data to refining hydrological response models. By complementing established methods with a memory-efficient and GPU-accelerated framework, our approach bridges the gap between drop-scale dynamics and catchment-scale impacts.

How to cite: Wei, C.-L., Gires, A., and Wang, L.-P.: Blunt Extension and Dynamic Generation of Multifractal Cascade Fields Tree for Rainfall Drop Trajectories Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14564, 2025.

EGU25-14679 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Bartlett-Lewis based stochastic rainfall model: An improvement to effectively reproduce sub-hourly rainfall extremes 

Chi Vuong Tai, Jeongha Park, Li-Pen Wang, and Dongkyun Kim

Despite significant advancements in the Poisson cluster-based Bartlett-Lewis model for effectively reproducing rainfall extremes, there is still room for further refinement. This study proposes a refined model, referred to as RBL7, introducing module k with a modified equation for rainfall disaggregation. This adjustment allows the power of the sine function to vary inversely with rain cell duration, thereby capturing the realistic characteristics of rainfall extremes, which often come with high intensity over short durations. Furthermore, an improved calibration approach is also proposed for the first module of the RBL7 model. This involves a hybrid optimization technique combining Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and fmincon methods, iterately executed until the objective function reaches the pre-assigned threshold. While the calibration of the RBL7 model relies solely on observed rainfall aggregated at hourly and longer timescales, it effectively reproduces rainfall extremes from uncalibrated sub-hourly to supra-hourly aggregation intervals, outperforming existing models using sine-2 and rectangular pulse shapes. Additionally, this refined model maintains its capability to capture rainfall standard statistics, i.e., mean, variance, covariance, skewness, and proportion of wet period, at various timescales ranging from 5 minutes to a month. These findings highlight the robustness of the RBL7 model in simulating rainfall characteristics, especially extreme values at sub-hourly aggregation intervals.

 

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis Program (or Project), funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

How to cite: Vuong Tai, C., Park, J., Wang, L.-P., and Kim, D.: Bartlett-Lewis based stochastic rainfall model: An improvement to effectively reproduce sub-hourly rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14679, 2025.

EGU25-14931 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Quantifying Future Shifts in Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) in Singapore: A comparison of methods 

Mengzhu Chen, Nadav Peleg, and Simone Fatichi

Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are critical for urban drainage design and flood risk mitigation, particularly in highly urbanized regions like Singapore, where short-duration extreme rainfall events pose significant challenges. This study quantifies future changes in IDF curves and their associated uncertainties under two representative emission scenarios: SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5. To construct future IDF curves, we compare two methods. First, we use a stochastic downscaling methodology that makes use of the AWE-GEN weather generator, to downscale precipitation projections from 25 Global Climate Models (GCMs) to the local point scale. The results show that the magnitude of future extreme precipitation quantiles is expected to get higher toward the end of the 21st century under both future scenarios. Higher-emission scenarios lead to substantial intensification of rare precipitation events, accompanied by a large uncertainty. However, internal climate variability is the dominant source of uncertainty, with climate model and emission scenario uncertainties being less relevant. Second, the results are compared with outputs of the TENAX (Temperature dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels) model, a novel framework that incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner to project rainfall return levels in a warmer climate using fewer inputs. This study compares state-of-the-art methodologies for computing IDF representative of future climates and provides actionable insights for engineers and policymakers to update urban stormwater design guidelines and enhance resilience against future rainfall extremes.

How to cite: Chen, M., Peleg, N., and Fatichi, S.: Quantifying Future Shifts in Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) in Singapore: A comparison of methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14931, 2025.

Climate change is an essential part of sustainable development challenges in developing countries. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the world today. Accurate meteorological and hydrological projections are vital for effective climate adaptation and resource management, particularly under changing climate scenarios. However, the coarse spatial resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) limits their applicability for localized impact assessments. This study proposes a deep learning-based super-resolution approach combined with an advanced hydrological model to downscale and enhance the spatial resolution of three GCM datasets—GFDL-CM4, GISS-E2-1-G, and IPSL-CM6A-LR—to approximately 0.01°. The performance of the method is evaluated based on mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), and Pearson correlation coefficient (R). This study hypothesizes to have more precise and accurate meteorological and hydrological predictions and projections under this framework. The model is conducted on historical climate data and compared with high-resolution observational datasets, showcasing its ability to capture fine-scale climatic and hydrological variability. This approach bridges the resolution gap in climate projections and provides a robust framework for better-informed decision-making in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Funding

This research was supported by Disaster-Safety Platform Technology Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT. (No. 2022M3D7A1090338).

How to cite: Huong, O. S. and Lee, G.: Improving Climate Change  Data through Deep Learning Super-Resolution Downscaling of GCMs for Precise Hydrological Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15576, 2025.

EGU25-15818 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Hourly Precipitation Biases and Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling in Convection-Resolving and Convection-Parameterizing Regional Climate Models 

Alzbeta Medvedova, Isabella Kohlhauser, Douglas Maraun, Mathias W. Rotach, and Nikolina Ban

Regional climate models (RCMs) are crucial tools for understanding and predicting climate change and its impacts, such as precipitation extremes. We investigate the characteristics of hourly precipitation and the associated extremes in RCM ensembles with two resolutions: km-scale (the CORDEX-FPS Convection ensemble with ~3 km grid spacing, where deep convection is represented explicitly), and coarser-scale (~12 km grid spacing, with parameterized convection). The km-scale ensemble is downscaled from the coarser one, and both cover three time periods: evaluation, historical, and end-of-the-century period under the RCP8.5 warming scenario (2000-2009, 1996-2005, and 2090-2099, respectively). Evaluating the model ensembles against data from 179 weather stations in Austria, we study how the intensity, duration, and the time of onset of precipitation depend on mean daily temperature. We then examine how these characteristics change under warming conditions.

It is well established that over the Alps the coarser RCMs produce too much light and persistent precipitation which is triggered too early in the day. We find that these shortcomings in models with parameterized convection become more pronounced with rising temperatures. We show that the km-scale ensemble closely matches observations and greatly outperforms the coarser ensemble in capturing the investigated hourly precipitation characteristics, especially at higher temperatures and on days with heavy rainfall. As high temperatures are expected to become more common in future climates, our results imply that coarser RCMs suffer from more severe biases in hourly precipitation in the future than under present climate conditions, especially for short-duration extremes. 

In this light, we also assess the ability of both km-scale and coarser RCM ensembles to capture the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature, and discuss how model deficiencies in the coarser ensemble affect this relationship.

In summary, our findings highlight the importance of km-scale RCMs for accurate simulations of hourly precipitation and its extremes, particularly in the warming climate.

How to cite: Medvedova, A., Kohlhauser, I., Maraun, D., Rotach, M. W., and Ban, N.: Hourly Precipitation Biases and Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling in Convection-Resolving and Convection-Parameterizing Regional Climate Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15818, 2025.

EGU25-15936 | Posters on site | HS7.2

A Framework for Convection-Permitting Climate Downscaling over Southern Italy 

Giuseppe Mendicino, Luca Furnari, Elnaz Hatami Bahman Beygloo, Thomas Rummler, Harald Kunstmann, and Alfonso Senatore

Projecting climate change impact in southern Italy is particularly challenging because this region is located in the center of the Mediterranean basin, which is a recognized climate change hotspot, and is characterized by steep and complex orography requiring analysis at high spatial resolution. Therefore, climate models at the convection-permitting scale considerably improve the ability to simulate water cycle trends in that region, especially severe events.

This note introduces the modeling framework on which climate simulations are being carried out for southern Italy using CMIP6 projections and presents the first results related to the comparison of the historical simulation with observational datasets. A preliminary analysis revealed that the best CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) for reproducing the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature over the study area is the High-Resolution MPI-ESM-1-2 model (1°x1° as horizontal resolution). Such a GCM was chosen to provide 6-hour boundary conditions for dynamic downscaling with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) limited-area model with two domains one-way nested: the external one D01, with a horizontal resolution of about 20km, covering the entire Mediterranean area (209x214 grid points), and the internal one D02, with a horizontal resolution of about 4km, centered on southern Italy (285x265 grid points). The historical simulation extends from 1995 to 2014. The future simulations cover the period 2025 to 2045. The first future simulation employs the SSP 5-8.5 scenario.

Total precipitation and near-surface air temperature resulting from the historical simulation are compared with both observational datasets (namely, the spatially distributed products BigBang, SCIA, E-OBS, and validated weather station time series) and reliable downscaled reanalyses (e.g., ERA5-Land, MERIDA, MERIDA HRES, SPHERA, CERRA, VHREA_IT), which are increasingly available for the Italian peninsula. The results highlight that the evaluation of the performance of the historical simulation is partially affected by the selection of the reference dataset.

 

 

Acknowledgments: This study was funded by the Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3, project WaterWISE - Water Management Strategies and Climate Change Adaptation in Southern Italy, n. PE00000005, CUP D43C22003030002; and by the Next Generation EU - Italian NRRP, Mission 4 ‘Education and Research’ - Component C2, Investment 1.1, Research Project of National Interest (PRIN 2022 PNRR) ­- An integrated modeling approach for mitigating climate CHANge effects through enhanCEd weathering in Southern Italy (CHANCES, CUP H53D23011260001), Italian Ministry of University and Research.

How to cite: Mendicino, G., Furnari, L., Hatami Bahman Beygloo, E., Rummler, T., Kunstmann, H., and Senatore, A.: A Framework for Convection-Permitting Climate Downscaling over Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15936, 2025.

Precipitation time series are used as input for hydrological modeling. As the main driver of the hydrological cycle, they directly influence soil moisture, runoff, river flows, and groundwater recharge. High-resolution precipitation data is required to obtain accurate hydrological models. In addition, data should be available from different locations to reflect spatial dependencies in these models. As precipitation is measured only at selected locations, the simulated series can be used for design purposes.

In recent years, various models have been developed based on the Fourier Transform because of its ability to preserve desirable statistical properties. The concept is to transform the time series from the time domain to the frequency domain and calculate the two main components of the transformed series: the power spectrum (the square of the absolute values of the Fourier frequencies) and the phase spectrum (phase angle of the frequencies). The main idea behind all the Fourier-based models is to preserve the power spectrum because it relates to the autocorrelation function and overall structure.

This study compares the most common Fourier-based time series generators using different measures. As most spectral methods are iterative, this can be challenging for the precipitation time series, especially for the hourly resolution. In this regard, a non-iterative method is introduced. This method takes advantage of the Wiener–Khinchin theorem for the transformation between the autocorrelation function and the power spectrum. Another method, the Phase Annealing method, is introduced for precipitation time series generation and keeping the spatial and temporal properties. The results have been compared for the developed models and the most common Fourier-based methods.

How to cite: Mehrvand, M. and Bárdossy, A.: Comparative study of spectral methods for precipitation time series generators based on the conserving observed spatial and temporal properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16085, 2025.

EGU25-17581 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.2

Daily precipitation dataset (1991-2021) at 1 km resolution over the Po river basin area using Kriging 

Sohaib Baig, Gaia Roatti, Marco Brian, Francesco Tornatore, Giuseppe Formetta, and Riccardo Rigon

The Po river basin, in the north of Italy, is the lifeline of the economic and ecology of the North of Italy. The 661 km long river covers an area of 71327 km2 and replenishes the water demands of agriculture, industry and domestic consumers. The topography is diverse  with alps mountains in the north and fertile plains in the south. The annual precipitation is 1200 mm which varies between ~2000 mm in the Alps to ~700 mm in the downstream. This study presents the estimates the precipitation on daily resolution over a grid of 1 km across the Po river basin for the period from 1991 to 2021, thus providing a consistent datasets for analyses of the recent climatology of the area. Total 1511 number of observed precipitation stations were included in the study along with topographic information. The statistical technique of kriging was employed to produce the grid data cube. The workflow of the study is summarized in the following steps:

  • obtain the meteorological data from the data providers
  • estimate the empirical semivariogram
  • fit theoretical models to the empirical semivariogram and analyses of the statistical correlation
  • use the theoretical model for solving the kriging system
  • produce continuous surface maps or time series of the quantity desired in any gridded point of the domain
  • calculate estimation errors.

For the estimation of errors Leave-one-out (LOO) is adopted which consists of removing a single station at a time and performing the interpolation for the location of the removed point by using the remaining stations. The approach is repeated until every station has been, in turn, removed and estimates are calculated for each station.

The results have shown that the average precipitation in the basin is 1131 mm with significant spatial patterns, some of which are reported for example. The northern subbasins have shown annual precipitation up to 2500 mm while the downstream planes receives up to 550 mm. The results show clear spatial and temporal patterns across the basin which  are reported in the study.

How to cite: Baig, S., Roatti, G., Brian, M., Tornatore, F., Formetta, G., and Rigon, R.: Daily precipitation dataset (1991-2021) at 1 km resolution over the Po river basin area using Kriging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17581, 2025.

EGU25-19416 | ECS | Orals | HS7.2

Enhancing Extreme Rainfall Nowcasting with Weighted Loss Functions in Deep Learning Models 

Hyojeong Choi, Yongchan Kim, and Dongkyun Kim

With the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, the importance of nowcasting to minimize damage from disasters such as flash floods is becoming ever more prominent. However, most nowcasting models use loss functions aimed at minimizing the average prediction error. As a result, they tend to underestimate extreme rainfall—which has relatively low occurrence frequency but significant impact. In this study, we applied various types of weighted loss functions to a ConvLSTM-based nowcasting model to more accurately predict extreme rainfall. In particular, we varied parameters within these weighted loss functions and conducted sensitivity analyses to identify the optimal weighting strategies. We also categorized extreme rainfall types and evaluated the models’ predictive performance with weighted loss functions, thereby examining both the accuracy and stability of the model’s forecasts under extreme conditions from multiple perspectives. The results showed that the model employing a weighted loss function achieved significantly improved accuracy in predicting extreme rainfall, compared to an unweighted model. Furthermore, depending on the type of weighted loss function and parameter settings, the model demonstrated notably strong performance for specific types of extreme rainfall. This finding suggests that, in a rainfall environment characterized by high variability, dynamically selecting weighted loss functions according to forecasting objectives and conditions can enhance both the efficiency and reliability of extreme rainfall prediction. The approach presented in this study can be applied to flood forecasting and is anticipated to contribute to the advancement of deep learning–based disaster response systems, reducing the potential damage caused by natural disasters.

 

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis Program(or Project), funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

How to cite: Choi, H., Kim, Y., and Kim, D.: Enhancing Extreme Rainfall Nowcasting with Weighted Loss Functions in Deep Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19416, 2025.

EGU25-19913 | Orals | HS7.2

Postprocessing of rainfall forecasts over East Africa 

Fenwick Cooper, Shruti Nath, Masilin Gudoshava, Nishadh Kalladath, Ahmed Amdihun, Jason Kinyua, Hannah Kimani, David Koros, Zacharia Mwai, Christine Maswi, Asaminew Teshome, Samrawit Abebe, Isaac Obai, Jesse Mason, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry, Antje Weisheimer, and Tim Palmer

We test methods of postprocessing rainfall forecasts out to 7 days over East Africa.

Using the physical forecast models, IFS from ECMWF and GFS from NCEP, we apply several combinations of post-processing techniques to empirically correct the predicted rainfall towards IMERG blended satellite rainfall data. The techniques we apply include a generative adversarial neural network (GAN) model (Harris et al. 2022), isotonic distributional regression (EasyUQ, Walz et al. 2024), EMOS (Gneiting et al. 2005), linear regression, and the kernel density estimate. Other approaches are also considered, however for the purposes of practical operational forecasts, we mainly focus on computationally cheap methods. Because we are comparing against IMERG, our results compare favourably against fully empirical models, such as FuXi and Graphcast, that have been trained to predict ERA5.

Being computationally cheap, in an operational forecast cycle on a standard desktop computer, the GAN model can produce spatially correlated 1000 member ensembles from the input forecast data. from which we can display the distribution using a histogram. The other techniques also cheaply produce rainfall distributions. We compare the quality of these distributions using the CRPS, variogram score and reliability diagrams. Biases in the raw rainfall forecasts are most notably reduced over the large lakes, for example Lake Victoria, over mountains, Indian ocean, and other places of high rainfall. We find it difficult to reduce biases in dry regions and over the Congo rainforest.

Different empirical modelling methods are optimal for different physical phenomena, and there is no theory for the most accurate model without physical insight. We also observe that it is often possible to improve each of the models with various tweaks. Each of the tested approaches might improve in the future, and the question we are trying to answer is “what is the best practical model available today?”

How to cite: Cooper, F., Nath, S., Gudoshava, M., Kalladath, N., Amdihun, A., Kinyua, J., Kimani, H., Koros, D., Mwai, Z., Maswi, C., Teshome, A., Abebe, S., Obai, I., Mason, J., Pappenberger, F., Chantry, M., Weisheimer, A., and Palmer, T.: Postprocessing of rainfall forecasts over East Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19913, 2025.

EGU25-361 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

An advanced hydrological method for the characterization of Life Cycle Water Footprint at the local scale 

Niccolò Renzi, Benedetto Rugani, Tommaso Pacetti, Daniele Penna, Enrica Caporali, Elena Bresci, and Giulio Castelli

ISO 14046:2014 is the standard for measuring the Water Footprint (WF) of products, processes, and organizations following a life cycle approach. The Available Water Remaining (AWARE) is an ISO 14046 compliant characterization model to measure WF characterization factors (Cf) at national and sub-national levels. Despite being established on international consensus AWARE is based on the use of global water balance models and does not incorporate knowledge on hydrological dynamics at high spatial resolution. Thus, the resulting WF values may be inaccurate for local context studies. This work proposes an approach to estimate local Cfs with a sub-administration granularity, using Tuscany Region (Italy) as a case study. Hydrological information (i.e. water availability) was retrieved from the Italian national water balance model (BIGBANG 7.0), and water consumption time-series (2012-2021) were obtained at the municipality level from regional databases. Results indicate that the yearly average Cf (~60 m3world eq / m3i) is ~80% higher than the corresponding AWARE’s Cf. High spatial and temporal variability are observed, with monthly standard deviation ranging from 0 to 52 m3world eq / m3i. The largest variability occurs in winter when the Cfs are the lowest. During summer, maximum Cf values measured show low variability due to the constant high pressure on water resources over the years. The Northwest of Tuscany, with more humid climate, presents the lowest value of Cf. In contrast, the agricultural areas result in the highest Cf due to the high-water demand for irrigation and the generally low precipitation volumes. The proposed approach can increase the reliability of WF assessments and can be extended to the entire Italian territory and other territories in the world.

 

This study was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (PI-ANO NAZIONALE DI RIPRESA E RESILIENZA (PNRR) – MISSIONE 4 COMPONENTE 2, INVESTIMENTO 1.4 – D.D.1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). This abstract reflects only the authors’ views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

How to cite: Renzi, N., Rugani, B., Pacetti, T., Penna, D., Caporali, E., Bresci, E., and Castelli, G.: An advanced hydrological method for the characterization of Life Cycle Water Footprint at the local scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-361, 2025.

Global climate change can alter precipitation patterns and temperatures, impacting regional hydrologic cycles and river flows, potentially leading to supply deficits during peak use periods. Future water use patterns may shift due to increased demand for food and energy production driven by population growth. Anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture and power generation, can degrade water quality, affecting its availability for various uses. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change and water demand on water availability in the Kaskaskia River watershed, Illinois, USA. The Kaskaskia River, the second largest river in Illinois, flows southwest to its confluence with the Mississippi River. Lake Shelbyville and Carlyle Lake, the two principal reservoirs on the mainstem of the Kaskaskia River, serve as primary sources of water supply in the region. Both reservoirs, federally owned, are operated and managed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to meet water demand in the watershed, including water supply, flood control, navigation, and recreational needs. The land use of the Kaskaskia River watershed is primarily agricultural, with row crops covering more than 60 percent of the area. Two-thirds of the watershed soil has moderately low infiltration capacity. The region receives an average annual precipitation of 1,041 millimeters. A detailed hydrologic model of the Kaskaskia River watershed was developed, incorporating modifications to watershed process algorithms and implementing a daily target release method for the reservoirs, which significantly improved storage and outflow simulations. The modeling process involved developing four subwatershed models with HUC12 as their subbasins and further subdividing subbasins into hydrologic response units (HRUs) to enhance simulation granularity. The model also incorporated Lake Shelbyville and Carlyle Lake, along with point sources and water withdrawals. Calibration and validation across the models and reservoirs, involving sensitivity analysis and automatic calibration, yielded good performance metrics. The model accurately simulated streamflow and reservoir dynamics, providing reliable predictions. The calibrated models were integrated into a single Kaskaskia River watershed model, which was then applied to simulate future water use and climate scenarios, offering insights into potential hydrologic impacts. The findings revealed that climate change significantly impacts river flows and reservoir storages, while water use has minimal effects. Under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, minimum storage volumes of both reservoirs are projected to decrease over the next 25 and 50 years, while maximum storage volumes are expected to increase. Future water yields of both reservoirs are anticipated to exceed current yields, underscoring the need for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and changing demands. The study highlights the importance of adaptive water resource management to mitigate climate change impacts and ensure long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Getahun, E.: Future Water Availability: Impacts of Climate Change and Water Demand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1659, 2025.

EGU25-1685 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

Optimizing Agricultural Water Distribution with Network Flow Model 

Chang-Ying Lee and Ming-Che Hu

The extreme hydrological events that occurred in recent years seriously impacted the water resource distribution in Taiwan. Reducing agricultural water is a compromised policy in competition with domestic and industrial water demand. However, Long-term water supply reduction or fallowing will irreversibly impair the agriculture industry. Our research aims to develop a model to evaluate the policy for agricultural water distribution. The network flow programming is the skeleton of our model. This optimization model has two features: firstly, the hydrological data is adopted in terms of time series function instead of constants of the specific time window; secondly, the hydrological data are transformed from the time domain to the frequency domain. This novel model exhibits practical significance for facilitating water agricultural water resources management and providing decision-support information for determining cropping policy. 

How to cite: Lee, C.-Y. and Hu, M.-C.: Optimizing Agricultural Water Distribution with Network Flow Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1685, 2025.

EGU25-3381 | PICO | HS7.3

Assessment on impacts of the 2022 extreme heatwave and drought on Camellia oleifera production in China 

Tianying Wang, Sihua Liu, Jiazhi Fan, Xiqiang Shuai, Bing Sui, and Yongzhong Chen

In 2022, southern China experienced an unprecedented summer-autumn extreme heatwave and drought, resulting in significant impacts on agricultural and forestry production. Camellia oleifera, a woody edible-oil-bearing species endemic to China and one of the world’s four major woody oil crops, is primarily cultivated in subtropical low mountain and hilly regions, with extensive distribution across 15 major production provinces in southern China. The period from July to October represents a critical stage for fruit enlargement and oil accumulation in C. oleifera. This study aims to assess the impact of the 2022 extreme heatwave and prolonged drought on C. oleifera production in China and to explore disaster thresholds for heat and drought affecting C. oleifera.

The study focuses on 15 major C. oleifera-producing provinces in China, utilizing meteorological data from the Tianqing Big Data Center (daily precipitation and maximum temperature from 1,307 weather stations) and identifying representative years significantly affected by summer-autumn heat and drought (2022, 2021, and 2013). We investigated the mortality rates of C. oleifera plants and flower buds in 2022, and collected data from three representative years including yield, affected areas, fruit oil content, plant phenotypic traits, and phenological phases. Meteorological disaster indices used in this study include the cumulative number of days with daily maximum temperature ≥35°C (DTm35) and ≥39°C (DTm39), extreme maximum temperature (Tmax), the longest consecutive days with maximum temperature ≥35°C (CDTm35) and without effective rainfall (CDnr).

Results indicate that, in 2022, most regions within the C. oleifera-producing areas experienced DTm35 ≥ 37d with localized DTm39 ≥ 20 d and Tmax reaching 45.0°C. From July 21 to December 3, some areas experienced CDnr ≥ 61 d. These conditions led to severe water deficits, with fresh fruit yields in severely affected areas decreased by more than 90%, flower bud mortality rates ranging from 10.6% to 37.2%, and fruit set rates in some regions dropping to below 1% in the following year. In extreme heat zones, fresh fruit oil content was reduced by more than 40%. New plantations experienced mortality rates of 71.0%–74.5%, young forests 15.2%–70.4%, and mature forests 9.2%–14.7% due to compounded heat and drought stress. Comprehensive analysis of the three representative years reveals that during the oil accumulation phase, CDTm35 ≥9 d combined with DTm39 ≥3 d leads to significant reductions in oil content, while CDnr ≥46 d during the flower bud maturation phase significantly increases flower bud mortality. Furthermore, CDTm35 ≥18 d and CDnr ≥31 d are critical thresholds for abnormal fruit drop and substantial reductions in fresh fruit yield. When CDTm35 ≥15 d and CDnr ≥31 d, the mortality rate of young forests increases significantly. These findings provide valuable insights into the disaster thresholds for heat and drought impacts on C. oleifera and highlight the vulnerability of its production system to climate extremes.

How to cite: Wang, T., Liu, S., Fan, J., Shuai, X., Sui, B., and Chen, Y.: Assessment on impacts of the 2022 extreme heatwave and drought on Camellia oleifera production in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3381, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3381, 2025.

EGU25-4108 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Durum Wheat Yields in Mediterranean Regions: A Water-Food Nexus Perspective 

Malin Grosse-Heilmann, Elena Cristiano, Gabriella Pusceddu, Marino Marrocu, Francesco Viola, and Roberto Deidda

In the Mediterranean region, the agricultural sector represents a major water resource consumer and, at the same time, a crucial economic pillar. Future climatic changes are expected to impact agricultural systems, especially through extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, with relevant consequences on the water resource management, especially in semi-arid regions. In this context, understanding the potential variability of durum wheat productivity and irrigation impact on water resources is crucial to ensure sustainable development and efficient water management. This study focuses on durum wheat cultivation in Sardinia (Italy), a key C3 crop in the Mediterranean context, thanks to the good nutritional composition, with a high carbohydrate and protein content. In Sardinia durum wheat is currently grown under rainfed conditions and therefore vulnerable to climatic changes. With the aim to estimate the crop productivity, the AquaCrop-OpenSource model was used, explicitly taking into account the local conditions of climate, soil, sowing time, field management and crop properties. To assess the impact of climate change on Sardinia’s durum wheat productivity, simulations of the attainable yield for historical (1950 -2023) and near future conditions (2024 -2050) were conducted evaluating seven different climatic models (CMCC CM VHR4, EC Earth3P HR, FGOALS f3 H, HiRAM SIT HR, MPI ESM1 2, MRI AGCM3 2 S, NICAM16 8S), that follow the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project protocol. In the context of a Water-Food nexus analysis, the volume of water needed for irrigation to uphold current durum wheat yields as well as to maximise productivity was estimated, evaluating the potential impact on Sardinian water resources management system. Simulation results indicate a general increase in yields in the future accompanied by a concomitant reduction in growing period duration and a potential drawback in grain quality; at the same time, it is not rare the occurrence of low or zero productivity triggered by winter droughts or summer heat waves. Additionally, the investigation of the impact of individual projected changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2-concentration reveals that rising CO2 levels exert the overall highest influence on the enhanced durum wheat productivity. 

How to cite: Grosse-Heilmann, M., Cristiano, E., Pusceddu, G., Marrocu, M., Viola, F., and Deidda, R.: Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Durum Wheat Yields in Mediterranean Regions: A Water-Food Nexus Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4108, 2025.

EGU25-9003 | PICO | HS7.3 | Highlight

Adapting to the Escalating Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Region: The case of Greece 

Anastasios Perdios, Maria Margarita Ntona, Stergios Emmanouil, Eleni Kritidou, Alexandra Aspioti, Maria Nefeli Georgaki, Maria Papailiopoulou, and Athanasios V. Serafeim

The acceleration of the climate crisis poses significant and multilayered challenges to Mediterranean societies, whose complex socio-economic structure, ecological stability, and cultural heritage, are increasingly affected by expanding climatic perturbations (see e.g. Linares et al., 2020, and Aurelle et al., 2022).Due to its socio-geographic heterogeneity, Greece offers a highly compelling case for an investigation of social resilience and adaptive capacity in response to climate change. Along these lines, in this study we conduct a large-scale survey to explore the adaptation potential of Greek society, aiming to provide insights concerning community perspectives and social dynamics.

Thus far, the survey, is administered across a variety of urban, rural, and insular contexts, and encompasses a minimum of 150 responses. The proposed framework interrogates key aspects of adaptive capacity, including (but not limited to): a) cognitive awareness of climate-related risks, b) direct experiences of crisis-induced disruptions, c) willingness as well as readiness to adopt sustainable practices, and d) evaluative perspectives on grassroots-level interventions. Although this preliminary analysis indicates a widespread understanding of the exposure to climatic hazards, we identify significant regional disparities that highlight urban-rural dichotomies, as well as substantial socio-economic constraints toward proactive adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the interplay of cultural and historical paradigms emerges as a major factor that shapes adaptation pathways.

The findings of this effort seek to provide the foundation for identifying systemic barriers and leveraging emerging opportunities to enhance societal resilience to the climate crisis in Greece. Finally, this work underscores the critical importance of developing context-specific strategies that address localized hydrological challenges and socio-economic barriers, while integrating community-driven solutions to enhance adaptive resilience against climate risks.

 

References

Linares, C., Díaz, J., Negev, M., Martínez, G.S., Debono, R., Paz, S. (2020) Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation, Environmental Research, 182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.109107

Aurelle, D., Thomas, S., Albert, C., Bally, M., Bondeau, A., Boudouresque,C., Cahill, A. E., Carlotti, F., Chenuil, A., Cramer, W., Davi, H., DeJode, A., Ereskovsky, A., Farnet, A., Fernandez, C., Gauquelin, T.,Mirleau, P., Monnet, A., Prévosto, B., … Fady, B. (2022) Biodiversity,climate change, and adaptation in the Mediterranean. Ecosphere, 13(4): e3915. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3915

How to cite: Perdios, A., Ntona, M. M., Emmanouil, S., Kritidou, E., Aspioti, A., Georgaki, M. N., Papailiopoulou, M., and Serafeim, A. V.: Adapting to the Escalating Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Region: The case of Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9003, 2025.

EGU25-11185 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

Ecological Health Monitoring of Himalayan Wetlands- Harnessing eDNA based Assessment in Deepor Beel, a RAMSAR Wetland  

Rajkumari Nikita, Sourabh Kumar Dubey, and Punyasloke Bhadury

The Eastern Himalayan Region is considered to be one of the world’s hotspots of freshwater biodiversity including high endemism. Deepor Beel, located within the foothills of Eastern Himalayan Region, is a freshwater RAMSAR wetland in India offering ecosystem services including rich fisheries. A dedicated ecological time series, Deepor Beel Ecological Time Series (DBETS), has been established in 2022 to track changes in biological communities and map effects of anthropogenic pressure on this wetland. By integrating robust in-situ, geochemical measurements and the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) by Nanopore sequencing, DBETS has started to provide insights on overall ecological health of Deepor Beel. The study has revealed high concentrations of dissolved nitrate (5 mgL-1 to 22 mgL-1) in the surface water of Deepor Beel. The microbiome communities are overwhelmingly dominated by members of Moraxellaceae (Prokaryotes) and Eumetazoa (Eukaryotes). The abundance of Cyprinidae were also encountered reflecting the importance of small indigenous fish populations. Signals of bacterial fish pathogens including Aeromonas sp. were also detected in DBETS eDNA dataset. This study is aimed at generating critical baseline information for assessing the ecological health of Deepor Beel and integrate nexus between science, communities and policy for conservation of this Himalayan wetland.

How to cite: Nikita, R., Dubey, S. K., and Bhadury, P.: Ecological Health Monitoring of Himalayan Wetlands- Harnessing eDNA based Assessment in Deepor Beel, a RAMSAR Wetland , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11185, 2025.

EGU25-11915 | PICO | HS7.3

Assessing the Environmental Footprint of Suboptimal Pump Configurations in Water Distribution Systems 

Andreas Langousis, Nikolaos Th. Fourniotis, Athanasios V. Serafeim, and Anastasios Perdios

Abstract:

As all water supply systems are inherently energy-intensive, the operational efficiency of the pumping infrastructure significantly affects their environmental and economic performance. Suboptimal pump configurations often result in excessive energy consumption, leading to noteworthy environmental degradation through increased carbon emissions as well as unnecessary economic burden. The current work aims to quantify both the environmental footprint as well as the economic implications associated with non-optimal pump operations.

The pumping efficiency is assessed via a large-scale, real-world application to the water distribution network of the city of Patras, utilizing energy consumption as well as energy billing data associated with operation of pumps. To estimate the total CO₂ emissions, we use data acquired from the Greek Public Power Corporation (see PPC 2024a and 2024b) and the Independent Power Transmission Operator (see IPTO, 2023), during the 6-month high water consumption period from May 2023 – October 2023 (see Serafeim et al., 2024). The integrated approach allows for environmental impact assessment, under the current pump settings, and their possible improvements through optimization.

The results highlight that suboptimal pump configurations may lead to increased energy consumption and associated CO₂ emissions (up to 35%) relative to the optimal configurations. The current findings underscore the importance of precise configuration of pump systems in order to minimize their environmental impact as a direct result of deviations from the optimal settings.

We conclude that the operational efficiency of pumping systems in water distribution networks provides a critical perspective on environmental sustainability and economic resilience. The results of this work underscore the effectiveness of efficiency-oriented interventions within the water supply infrastructure towards mitigating energy consumption, carbon emissions, and operational costs, leading to more sustainable water resources planning management.

References:

Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) (2023) Monthly Energy Reports 2023, https://www.admie.gr/en/market/reports/monthly-energy-balance?since=01.01.2023&until=31.12.2023&op=Submit (last accessed 13/01/2025).

Public Power Corporation (PPC) (2024a) Monthly Data for CO2 emissions, https://www.ppcgroup.com/el/omilos-dei/dimosiefseis/miniaia-pliroforiaka-deltia/ ekpompes-co2 (last accessed 13/01/2025).    

Public Power Corporation (PPC) (2024b) Annual Report 2023, https://www.ppcgroup.com/media/yndddw43/apologismos-2023-0627-eng.pdf (last accessed 13/01/2025). 

Serafeim, A.V., N.Th. Fourniotis, R. Deidda, G. Kokosalakis, A. Langousis (2024) Leakages in Water Distribution Networks: Estimation Methods, Influential Factors, and Mitigation Strategies—A Comprehensive Review. Water 2024, 16(11), 1534; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111534.

How to cite: Langousis, A., Fourniotis, N. Th., Serafeim, A. V., and Perdios, A.: Assessing the Environmental Footprint of Suboptimal Pump Configurations in Water Distribution Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11915, 2025.

Climate change and the increasing reliance of high-tech industries on water resources are impacting the hydrology of the Kaoping River watershed in southern Taiwan. Effective decision-making for water resource management requires a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between groundwater and surface water systems. This study aims to address this need by using the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow-CLM to simulate hourly hydrologic processes on a 250-meter grid, enabling detailed analysis of groundwater–surface water dynamics within the watershed.
A novel aspect of this research is the application of machine learning to estimate the depth to bedrock, which provides critical insights into the subsurface structure. Additionally, a geostatistical approach, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME),, is utilized to estimate lithology and hydraulic conductivity, resulting in a refined and detailed hydrogeological framework.
The results reveal key groundwater and surface water interactions and produce detailed maps of the saturation zone. These findings offer insights that can serve as a foundation for informed water resource policy-making and management in the Kaoping River watershed.

How to cite: Tsai, Y.-J. and Yu, H.-L.: Mapping and investigating regional groundwater–surface water dynamics using an integrated hydrologic model of the Kaoping River watershed, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12403, 2025.

EGU25-12641 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

The PRIME Index: Prioritization of cultivated Regions IMpacted by drought in agriculturE  

Lorenza Cappellato, Benedetta Moccia, Elena Ridolfi, Davide Danilo Chiarelli, Fabio Russo, Francesco Napolitano, and Maria Cristina Rulli

The agricultural sector is particularly affected by drought events due to its direct dependency on precipitation 
and evapotranspiration. Droughts represent the foremost threat to food security, leading to reduced crop yields 
and, in severe cases, complete crop failure. A comprehensive understanding of drought is therefore essential 
for effective risk management and the strategic planning of water resource conservation in both the short and 
long term. Within the framework of the CASTLE project, this research combines the Standardized 
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales, computed from 1951 to 2024, with crop 
harvest data to identify Italy’s most drought-exposed agricultural hotspots. By integrating these datasets, the 
study establishes a foundation for the development of targeted adaptation strategies for water management in 
the agricultural sector. We conducted an initial assessment of agricultural drought across Italy using the SPEI 
signal at a 6-month timescale, which highlights a significant increase in the number, duration, and intensity of 
drought events, indicating progressively drought-prone conditions. Building on this, we perform a crop
specific SPEI analysis over the 74-year observation period, identifying the years in which drought conditions 
coincided with the harvest season. The findings reveal a sharp expansion in the overall extent of drought
affected regions over the past two decades, underscoring not only an intensification and increased frequency 
of drought events but also a widening geographic impact. These findings are synthesized into the novel 
“PRIME Index,” which quantifies agricultural drought susceptibility by considering both crop area extent and 
crop economic value. This index enables the precise identification of regions at the highest risk of agricultural 
drought, providing a powerful tool for prioritizing interventions and safeguarding agricultural production in 
Italy.

How to cite: Cappellato, L., Moccia, B., Ridolfi, E., Chiarelli, D. D., Russo, F., Napolitano, F., and Rulli, M. C.: The PRIME Index: Prioritization of cultivated Regions IMpacted by drought in agriculturE , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12641, 2025.

EGU25-14929 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

Comparing Soil Water Dynamics in Organic and Conventional Tea Fields Using  Numerical Modeling and Non-linear Information Theory 

Yung-Ching Chang, Siang-Heng Wang, Jehn-Yih Juang, and Shao-Yiu Hsu

Organic agriculture has gained increasing recognition in recent years for its benefits to natural ecosystems and humanity, particularly its influence on water resource utilization and environmental conservation. Tea, a key economic crop in Pinglin, Taiwan, depends heavily on precipitation and soil moisture for its growth. However, recent drought conditions in Taiwan have significantly challenged tea cultivation and production. Therefore, understanding how different agricultural management practices affect the vadose zone water balance is essential for improving the resilience of tea fields to drought.

Soil moisture in organic tea fields decreases more rapidly than in conventional ones after heavy rainfall. In this study, we utilized long-term in situ observations from two neighboring tea fields in Pinglin—one under conventional management and the other organic-certified—along with data on hydraulic and climatic variables (e.g., rainfall, soil water content, evapotranspiration, and soil temperature). Using these in situ data and collected soil samples, we analyzed and compared the hydraulic properties of the two fields. The HYDRUS-1D model was applied to simulate water dynamics, enabling us to characterize infiltration and surface runoff and compare the impacts of different farming practices on tea field hydrology. Additionally, we employed the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) method to investigate the nonlinear dynamical system (NDS) relationships among water balance variables in the tea fields (e.g., rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil water content). This approach allowed us to understand the causal relationships between soil moisture and other variables and to identify the time lag between environmental conditions and the onset of drought.

In Pinglin, most tea fields depend on rain-fed irrigation. Findings from this research can support the development of irrigation plans to enhance drought resilience in tea production and offer more comprehensive recommendations for sustainable agricultural practices.

How to cite: Chang, Y.-C., Wang, S.-H., Juang, J.-Y., and Hsu, S.-Y.: Comparing Soil Water Dynamics in Organic and Conventional Tea Fields Using  Numerical Modeling and Non-linear Information Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14929, 2025.

EGU25-14993 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

The Impact of Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) on Methane Emissions and Groundwater Recharge in Organic Paddy Fields 

Ying-Chi Liao, Yi-Zhih Tsai, Zhi-Wei Yang, and Shao-Yiu Hsu

Rice paddies are one of the major sources of methane emissions among greenhouse gases. Traditional conventional irrigation practices keep paddy fields flooded for extended periods, creating anaerobic soil conditions that promote significant methane emissions. In recent years, with the intensification of climate change, the global challenge of water resource management has become increasingly prominent. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) has been recognized as a sustainable irrigation practice that not only reduces water usage but also decreases methane emissions. However, while conserving water, AWD may alter water infiltration patterns in fields, potentially affecting groundwater recharge. This study investigates the effects of AWD and conventional irrigation on methane emissions and groundwater dynamics in organic paddy fields located at the Taoyuan District Agricultural Research and Extension Station in Taiwan. The research was conducted in two organic experimental fields. Methane emissions were measured using a gas analyzer, while tensiometers, soil moisture sensors, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) devices were installed in the AWD field to monitor soil moisture dynamics. Observation wells equipped with water level loggers were also set up near the fields to collect groundwater level data. The results showed that AWD significantly reduced methane emissions compared to conventional irrigation, confirming that agricultural water-saving practices can effectively mitigate methane emissions. Furthermore, through the analysis of groundwater levels in relation to irrigation and rainfall data, the study found that both irrigation and rainfall had a notable impact on groundwater recharge.

How to cite: Liao, Y.-C., Tsai, Y.-Z., Yang, Z.-W., and Hsu, S.-Y.: The Impact of Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) on Methane Emissions and Groundwater Recharge in Organic Paddy Fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14993, 2025.

EGU25-16053 | ECS | PICO | HS7.3

A rapid method for detecting enterococci in real water samples 

Yunsoo Chang and Eun-Hee Lee

Waterborne diseases remain a significant cause of illness and mortality in both developing and developed countries. Contaminated water, especially water containing fecal matter, serves as a reservoir for various pathogens. However, the identification and monitoring of all pathogens in water are often hindered by limitations in time, resources, and the complex ecology of microbial communities. To overcome these challenges, indicator bacteria are widely used as proxies to assess the presence of pathogenic bacteria and fecal contamination in water. Among these indicators, enterococci, commonly found in the intestinal microflora of humans and animals, are extensively used due to their abundance in contaminated water. Their presence serves as an effective marker for water quality assessment. In this study, we developed a simple, rapid, and cost-effective lateral flow assay (LFA) for detecting enterococci in environmental water samples. The LFA utilizes antibody-antigen interactions between gold nanoparticle-conjugated Enterococcus antibodies and enterococci, enabling detection within minutes. The assay's specificity was validated by distinguishing enterococci in the presence of Escherichia coli and Shigella sonnei. Additionally, the LFA demonstrated reliable detection of enterococci in both freshwater and seawater samples, achieving performance comparable to conventional viable plate counting methods. These findings suggest that the LFA is a rapid, user-friendly, and cost-effective tool for on-site and real-time monitoring of enterococci in environmental waters, providing a valuable method for enhancing water quality surveillance and public health protection.

How to cite: Chang, Y. and Lee, E.-H.: A rapid method for detecting enterococci in real water samples, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16053, 2025.

Water resources in Mediterranean regions face growing stress due to the combined effects of climate change, land use changes, and anthropogenic pressures. This study investigates the sensitivity of natural and anthropized river flows to these factors, focusing on basins in Tuscany (Italy) and the Valencian Community (Spain). The research uses advanced hydrological models (MOBIDIC and TETIS) to estimate natural and anthropized flows, quantify water stress, and introduce the Ecohydrological Distance Index (EcFI) to assess deviations from ecological sustainability in hydrological regimes.
The analysis emphasizes the impact of land use changes and anthropogenic pressures, such as water withdrawals and releases driven by population density and urbanization. Key indices, such as the PREX, which quantifies non-withdrawal pressures (e.g., land use and riparian alterations), and the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+), which measures water stress by comparing abstraction to available resources, highlight critical areas experiencing significant water stress, especially during summer. These indices also provide insights into the drivers of ecohydrological imbalances.
A sensitivity analysis explores hydrological systems' responses to climate change (e.g., RCP8.5 scenarios) and human pressures, such as increased water demand from population growth and urban expansion. Results indicate a substantial reduction in summer flows (up to -50%) and a rise in water stress indices (e.g., WEI+) in upstream river segments. Land use changes, particularly urbanization and agricultural expansion, exacerbate water scarcity and ecological degradation, as reflected in the worsening of the EcFI and PREX indices.
This study offers a comprehensive framework for assessing the combined impacts of climate change, land use, and human pressures on water resources in Mediterranean basins. Integrating hydrological modeling, ecohydrological indices, and socio-environmental factors provides robust tools for sustainable water management. The findings support policymakers in developing adaptive strategies to mitigate water stress and protect aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate.

How to cite: De Simone, M., Arrighi, C., Frances, F., and Castelli, F.: Ecohydrological Distance and Water Stress: Sensitivity Analysis of Natural and Anthropized Flows in Mediterranean Basins under Climate and Human-Induced Changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16845, 2025.

EGU25-18685 | PICO | HS7.3

Investigating the resilience of vulnerable children to future groundwater scarcity 

Fai Fung, Mary Zhang, and Mostaquimur Rahman

Climate change and water scarcity are intertwined natural and humanitarian crises, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. By 2040, one in four children globally will face severe water scarcity, exposing them to water-borne diseases. Many, particularly girls and young women in resource-limited regions, are forced to abandon education and career opportunities to fetch water due to traditional gender roles. As climate change reduces surface water availability, groundwater demand is projected to rise significantly over the next 30 years.

We will present our research framework to investigate how slow-onset climate events, such as prolonged droughts, impact child poverty - characterised as malnutrition and educational deprivation - through groundwater availability by integrating theories, data, and methods in child development, water security, climate change, and sustainable development . The aim is to develop solutions to improve resilience, adaptation strategies and public services for vulnerable children by answering three important questions:

  • Where are groundwater-dependent regions globally, continentally, and regionally, and what climate factors drive uncertainty in groundwater availability?
  • How does groundwater scarcity affect child poverty in semi-arid and arid developing regions?
  • Why do regions with comparable climate hazards and groundwater availability exhibit different levels of child poverty, and what lessons can be shared?

How to cite: Fung, F., Zhang, M., and Rahman, M.: Investigating the resilience of vulnerable children to future groundwater scarcity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18685, 2025.

EGU25-1819 | PICO | HS7.4

Will drought evolution accelerate under future climate? 

Guangxin Zhang and Yanfeng Wu
The evolution speed of droughts largely determines their characteristics and ensuing implications. Despite its importance, the potential accelerating effects of future climate change on these events are not fully understood. Here, we assessed changes in instantaneous development speed (IDS) and instantaneous recovery speed (IRS) of global droughts at various warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C) under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2.4–5 and SSP5.8–5 scenarios). The recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections CMIP6 datasets were used to characterize droughts based on the standardized precipitation index and run theory. In SSP2.4–5 and SSP5.8–5 scenarios, the proportions of global regions that underwent faster IDS accounted for 69.5 % vs. 43.3 %, and the slower counterparts were 29.4 % vs. 55.7 % compared to the historical period (1950–2014). In contrast, the global IRS in both SSP scenarios mainly slowed down, especially the SSP 5.8–5 scenario exhibiting declines in 75 % of the global regions. With intensified global warming, the regions with rapid IDS and IRS would expand, while low-IRS areas would shrink. Notably, areas showing slower IDS also increased when the warming level rose from 1 °C to 3 °C. Furthermore, eight hotspots with relatively rapid historical IDS and IRS persisted across the three warming levels under the SSPs in different future trends compared to the past conditions. These results provide insights into drought evolution speed assessment under climate change, highlighting the necessity of considering this variable in developing effective response strategies.
  •  

How to cite: Zhang, G. and Wu, Y.: Will drought evolution accelerate under future climate?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1819, 2025.

EGU25-4091 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Extreme future rainfall in Bologna: exploring climate scenarios depicted by CMIP6 models 

Yue Lai, Rui Guo, and Alberto Montanari

Inferring the statistical behaviours of future rainfall extremes is a topical issue for the mitigation of pluvial and flood risk. There is increasing evidence that extreme short-duration rainfall is intensifying, but the quantification of such increase is still a challenging issue. By banking on the availability of one of the longest daily rainfall series today available, continuously recorded in Bologna from Jan 1st, 1850, we test the performances of up-to-date CMIP6 climate models in the reproduction of historical rainfall statistics and assess the projections for the XXIst century, with different emission scenarios. We refer to the extreme rainfall indexes given by the annual and 10-year maximum 1-day rainfall (Rx1day), the annual and 10-year number of heavy (>10 mm) and very heavy (>20 mm) rainfall days (R10mm and R20mm) and the annual and 10-year number of days with rainfall greater than the 99th percentile of daily amounts (R99p). The results confirm the expectation of a potential increase of heavy rainfall during the next decades.

How to cite: Lai, Y., Guo, R., and Montanari, A.: Extreme future rainfall in Bologna: exploring climate scenarios depicted by CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4091, 2025.

EGU25-4310 | PICO | HS7.4

Causality of Sub-seasonal Extreme Precipitation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions 

Tingxing Chen, Haishen Lyu, Yonghua Zhu, Yinghao Fu, Andrea Magnini, and Attilio Castellarin

Extreme precipitation (EP) events have intensified in arid and semi-arid regions due to climate change. Understanding the causal mechanisms driving EP at the sub-seasonal timescale is crucial for improving prediction accuracy and extending forecast lead times. This study investigates EP characteristics in Northwest China (ASRNC) and reveals through a composite analysis that EP is associated with specific atmospheric circulation patterns, including anomalous upper-level thermal and lower-level dynamic conditions. Moisture transport from the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, Mediterranean, and North Atlantic fuels EP events in different regions of the ASRNC. To quantify causal relationships, the extended convergent cross-mapping (CCM) method is employed. CCM outperforms traditional correlation analysis in capturing time lags and directional causality between variables. External circulation factors, such as geopotential height, zonal/meridional winds, outgoing longwave radiation, and specific humidity, exert influence through multifactorial interactions and teleconnections. Internal circulation factors, including surface, subsurface, and deep soil moisture (SWVL1, SWVL2, SWVL3), regulate local moisture cycling. Nevertheless, SWVL1 together with vapor pressure deficit is shown to have a stronger and shorter-term impact, while impacts of SWVL2 and SWVL3 are weaker. These findings provide a robust framework for identifying key drivers of sub-seasonal EP and offer valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies as we as for improving future hydro-climatic scenarios in arid and semi-arid regions.

How to cite: Chen, T., Lyu, H., Zhu, Y., Fu, Y., Magnini, A., and Castellarin, A.: Causality of Sub-seasonal Extreme Precipitation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4310, 2025.

EGU25-5135 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Climate data and machine learning integration for evaluating flood insurancerisk patterns 

Konstantinos-Christofer Tsolakidis, Konstantinos Papoulakos, Theano Iliopoulou, Nikolaos Tepetidis, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Dimosthenis Tsaknias, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Climate data and machine learning integration for evaluating flood insurance risk patterns

Konstantinos C Tsolakidis1, Konstantinos Papoulakos1, Nikolaos Tepetidis1, Theano Iliopoulou1, Panayiotis Dimitriadis1, Dimosthenis Tsaknias2, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis1 (order of authors to be determined)

1Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, GR-157 80 Zografou, Greece

2 Independent researcher, Greece

Flood events, exacerbated by climate variability, pose significant challenges to flood risk management and the insurance industry in the United States. To enhance flood risk modeling strategies, this study employs machine learning to predict regions prone to high flood insurance claims by integrating hydrological, meteorological, and socio-economic data. We combine the FEMA NFIP Redacted Claims dataset, detailing over 2.5 million flood-related insurance claims, with the US-CAMELS streamflow dataset, offering rich hydrological insights across numerous catchments in the USA.

A key focus is the influence of climate indices, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on flood patterns. Using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as a quantitative metric, we explore the spatiotemporal relationship between ENSO phases, streamflow variability, and flood insurance claims. The analysis considers the geographic proximity of the study regions to hydrographic networks and coastal areas, where flood risks are often heightened due to complex interactions between inland and coastal processes. Furthermore, machine learning models are employed to identify the attributes driving flood vulnerability. Predictors include climate indices, basin characteristics, streamflow patterns, and historical claims data. This integrated approach aims to develop a predictive framework that enhances flood early warning systems and informs policy-making for targeted risk mitigation.

By quantifying the connections between large-scale climate phenomena, regional hydrology, and localized flood risks, this research provides a pathway for advancing flood insurance risk assessment and improving resilience to hydroclimate-driven hazards. Results will be showcased with a case study from the USA, emphasizing the applicability of machine learning in data-driven flood risk management.

How to cite: Tsolakidis, K.-C., Papoulakos, K., Iliopoulou, T., Tepetidis, N., Dimitriadis, P., Tsaknias, D., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Climate data and machine learning integration for evaluating flood insurancerisk patterns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5135, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5135, 2025.

EGU25-5194 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Applying machine learning models for flood susceptibility mapping in Thessaly, Greece 

Nikolaos Tepetidis, Ioannis Benekos, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

Machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in flood management worldwide to enhance the effectiveness of traditional methods for flood susceptibility mapping. Although these models have achieved higher accuracy than traditional ones, their application in Greece remains limited. We focus on applying machine learning models to create flood susceptibility maps for Thessaly, Greece, a flood-prone region with extreme flood events recorded in recent years. The study integrates topographical, hydrological, hydraulic, environmental and infrastructure data to train the models. The results demonstrate the potential of machine learning in providing accurate and practical flood risk information to enhance flood management and support decision-making for disaster preparedness in Thessaly.

How to cite: Tepetidis, N., Benekos, I., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Applying machine learning models for flood susceptibility mapping in Thessaly, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5194, 2025.

EGU25-6009 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Hydrological modelling: Insights into hydrological signals and contaminant transport 

Ana Corrochano- Fraile and Lindsay Beevers

This study examines how climate change impacts hydrological patterns in a heavily contaminated Scottish catchment, focusing on extreme events like floods and droughts. By analysing historical trends, projecting future scenarios, and modelling contaminant transport, it highlights the challenges of predicting hydrological extremes and their implications for water quality and environmental management.

Adapting hydrological models to account for future climate conditions is complex, particularly when predicting extreme events like floods and droughts. Traditional models, calibrated using historical data, often fail to capture hydrological behaviour in a rapidly changing environment. This research addresses these challenges by testing calibration techniques to enhance model performance across various flow conditions and contaminant transport processes.

A key difficulty lies in balancing model sensitivity to both high-flow events, which drive rapid contaminant transport, and low-flow conditions, where contaminants persist due to slower water movement. Techniques such as parameter sensitivity analysis and statistical optimization methods—like Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)—are employed to ensure models accurately represent diverse hydrological conditions. These models are validated under different climate scenarios to predict future extreme events and contaminant behaviours.

Multi-objective calibration techniques, which account for high- and low-flow dynamics, prove more effective in predicting future hydrological extremes. Metrics like peak flow rates, baseflow, NSE, and RMSE assess performance, aiding in flood mitigation and water quality risk management. By improving model robustness, this approach provides critical insights into water and contaminant movement under varying flow scenarios, supporting better preparedness for climate-driven challenges.

The River Almond catchment (375 km²) is one of Scotland’s most polluted river systems, shaped by industrial shifts, agricultural intensification, and urbanisation. These activities have created pollution hotspots, with pharmaceuticals, pesticides, nutrients, and endocrine disruptors as key contaminants. Their transport is closely tied to water flow dynamics, with hydrological signatures offering critical insights, especially during extreme events.

Periods of extreme rainfall or drought significantly influence contaminant behaviour. High-flow events mobilize contaminants like ibuprofen, while endocrine disruptors such as bisphenol A display flow-dependent patterns influenced by location and intensity. Rainfall after prolonged dry periods drives sudden spikes in the movement of pollutants, particularly microplastics, emphasizing the role of rain pulses in dispersion.

This study uses hydrograph analysis to assess contaminant responses to water flow fluctuations. Floods are expected to accelerate long-distance pollutant transport, while droughts may concentrate contaminants in stagnant water or sediments, creating latent risks reactivated by subsequent rainfall.

As climate change intensifies flow variability, understanding these pathways is essential for improving water quality management, mitigating pollution risks, and safeguarding the River Almond catchment’s resources.

How to cite: Corrochano- Fraile, A. and Beevers, L.: Hydrological modelling: Insights into hydrological signals and contaminant transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6009, 2025.

EGU25-6897 | PICO | HS7.4

Stochastic simulations of wind and solar processes for reliable renewable energy decision-making 

Despoina Balachtari, Theano Iliopoulou, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Nikos Mamassis, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

This study explores the stochastic analysis of wind and solar meteorological processes, focusing on simultaneous simulations at small scales while preserving marginal distribution, periodicities and dependence structure. Using historical data from Amsterdam Schiphol Airport as a case study, the analysis employs the Hurst-Kolmogorov process to model variability and long-term dependence.

By integrating the Hurst-Kolmogorov framework with recent stochastic modelling algorithms, synthetic time series are generated to emulate realistic patterns of wind and solar variability. Special attention is given to assessing the correlation between wind and solar processes, as their interplay significantly influences the balance and reliability of renewable energy systems.  These simulations aim to enhance the reliability of renewable energy resource assessments, supporting decision-making for infrastructure design and offering practical applications beyond the case study to broader renewable energy systems planning.

How to cite: Balachtari, D., Iliopoulou, T., Dimitriadis, P., Mamassis, N., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Stochastic simulations of wind and solar processes for reliable renewable energy decision-making, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6897, 2025.

EGU25-7024 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Stochastic Analysis of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean and its Recent Climatic Variations 

Marianna Lada, Christina-Ioanna Stavropoulou, Dimitra-Myrto Tourlaki, Nikos Tepetidis, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Theano Iliopoulou, and Demetris Koutsoyiannis

The Mediterranean region is regarded as highly vulnerable to climatic changes, affecting its hydrological cycle. This study examines key hydrological processes, such as precipitation, temperature, humidity and evaporation, using Reanalysis datasets to analyze recent climatic variations. Given the stochastic nature of the hydrological cycle, we employ the Hurst-Kolmogorov (HK) stochastic framework to evaluate the persistence properties of the involved processes given the observed climatic variations and compare the results with white noise and Markovian simulations. Additionally, synthetic scenarios are generated to simulate processes with similar persistence properties. The findings offer valuable insights into the dynamics of the Mediterranean hydrological cycle and the impact of climate variability.

How to cite: Lada, M., Stavropoulou, C.-I., Tourlaki, D.-M., Tepetidis, N., Dimitriadis, P., Iliopoulou, T., and Koutsoyiannis, D.: Stochastic Analysis of the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean and its Recent Climatic Variations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7024, 2025.

Over the past decades, extreme events like floods and droughts have become more frequent and intense, and future climate change scenarios may worsen this condition. Hence, we examine projected changes in drought characteristics under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario in the Cautín river basin, located in the Araucanía region, Chile. To this end, we calibrated 20 model structures created with the FUSE hydrological modeling platform, using historical daily data available from 1979 to 2014. Runoff projections were generated using the three best-performing model structures, selected based on the Kling-Gupta using daily flows in raw and logarithmic space, with values exceeding 0.9. To evaluate meteorological and hydrological droughts, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), and the Standardized Streamflow Flow (SSFI) computed for a 12-month time scale, considering five global circulation models (GCMs).

The catchment-scale precipitation is projected to decrease ~40% for the period 2051-2085 compared to the historical reference period 1979-2014, and median runoff values are expected to decrease 61% according to some GCMs. The results indicate that the duration of moderate meteorological and hydrological droughts is expected to increase by 144 months and up to 87 months, respectively. Additionally, the mean intensity of extreme meteorological droughts based on the SPEI index is projected to be 2.33, and the mean intensity of moderate hydrological droughts based on the SSFI index is projected to be 1.2, both for the 2051-2085 period.

How to cite: Muñoz-Villa, M., Vargas, X., Mendoza, P., and Vásquez, N.: Projections of Hydrological Droughts under SSP5-8.5 Scenario in the Cautín River Basin, Chile, using hydrological models calibrated in the FUSE platform., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7328, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7328, 2025.

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on extreme hydrometeorological events using an integrated modeling framework that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with WRF-Hydro. WRF is a numerical weather prediction model that simulates a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, while WRF-Hydro is a physics-based hydrological modeling system that represents hydrological states and their spatiotemporal distributions and interactions. The primary advantage of this integrated approach is the consistent sharing of land surface and boundary conditions between atmospheric and hydrological simulations. This research focuses on Typhoon Hinnamnor, which brought record-breaking rainfall and severe flooding to South Korea in 2022. Multiple WRF simulations with various microphysics schemes are conducted to determine the optimal configuration for retrospective meteorological simulations. Hydrological simulations driven by both ground-based and WRF-generated forcings are analyzed to evaluate hydrological responses at multiple gauging stations along the main channel and local tributaries. Additionally, extreme hydrometeorological conditions under climate change scenarios, projected by the WRF and WRF-Hydro models, are estimated using key meteorological and hydrological variables, including typhoon trajectory, precipitation, pressure, wind speeds, soil moisture, and streamflow. The discussion highlights the advantages and challenges of the integrated modeling approach, as well as the impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological variables across different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, we explore strategies for assessing the combined effects of climate and land cover changes using a high-resolution, fully interactive modeling setup.

How to cite: Lee, Y., Kim, B., Hiraga, Y., and Noh, S. J.: Assessing the impacts of climate change on extreme hydrometeorological events using an integrated WRF and WRF-Hydro framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8232, 2025.

EGU25-9253 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

A stochastic approach on the extreme hydrological events: the case of Thessaly, Greece 

Sofia Vrettou, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Panayiotis Dimitriadis, Theano Iliopoulou, and Alberto Montanari

In September 2023 storm Daniel struck the area of Thessaly, in the central part of Greece, causing extreme rainfall over four consecutive days. The aftereffects were devastating, as 17 people died, extensive damage -yet to be restored- was caused to infrastructure (including roads, bridges and the port basin of Volos) and the economic impact was also severe. This devastating disaster could have been limited if a reliable estimate of flood risk was available and efficient risk mitigation measures were adopted. To move a step forward towards such target, stochastic models serve as powerful tools for predicting floods and extreme rainfall incidents since they accurately simulate the inherent uncertainty that characterises natural processes like precipitation and river flows. In this work, we obtain historical precipitation data for the area of Thessaly and by applying the appropriate stochastic models and procedures we generate synthetic rainfall data. Then, by comparing the synthetic data to the historical, in stochastic terms, we test at what degree the stochastic models can effectively capture the variability of natural processes. The resulting synthetic data provide valuable insight in the likelihood of occurrence of extreme events, paving the way for incorporating stochastic tools in the development of flood early warning systems (FEWS). Furthermore, the application of stochastic models in extreme rainfall events will also guide the infrastructure design, in order to be resilient against extreme weather events, and will facilitate water resources management.

How to cite: Vrettou, S., Koutsoyiannis, D., Dimitriadis, P., Iliopoulou, T., and Montanari, A.: A stochastic approach on the extreme hydrological events: the case of Thessaly, Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9253, 2025.

EGU25-9309 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Warming-induced increase in liquid fraction amplifies sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Greater Alpine Region 

Matteo Pesce, Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Petr Vohnicky, and Rashid Akbary

Rising temperatures are increasing the liquid fraction of precipitation in mountainous regions. This change, added to other changes in dynamic and thermodynamic processes generating heavy precipitation, could determine a potential intensification of the flood regime, posing increasing hazards to the population. In this study we aim at quantifying the projected change in liquid sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Greater Alpine Region. We use an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM) provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1 hour temporal resolution and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, covering historical (1996-2005) and far future (2090-2099) time periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. Total precipitation extremes are estimated from the total precipitation time series by identifying the independent storms, extracting the ordinary events and using the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) approach. Temperature is then used to separate the liquid and solid fraction of the identified storms, and the liquid and solid precipitation extreme quantiles are estimated. The results for the historical period are validated using station-based statistics of liquid precipitation in the Eastern Italian Alps. Comparing future changes obtained for total, liquid and solid precipitation, our study shows a strong elevation-dependent signal of liquid precipitation extremes amplification over the domain across the entire range of precipitation severity, which is predominant at daily durations. On the contrary, at hourly duration no statistically significant signal of liquid precipitation amplification could be extracted. Advancing earlier results by Dallan et al. (2024), this study highlights that the changes in liquid precipitation are enhanced more at daily duration, typically affected by dynamic factors and processes, than at hourly duration, for which thermodynamics plays a major role. Obtaining robust estimates of these changes is crucial for better managing water resources and designing adaptation strategies. This is particularly important for infrastructures such as dams, which are often located at high elevation and so are strongly impacted by changes in the liquid-solid phase separation.

How to cite: Pesce, M., Dallan, E., Marra, F., Fosser, G., Vohnicky, P., and Akbary, R.: Warming-induced increase in liquid fraction amplifies sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Greater Alpine Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9309, 2025.

EGU25-11620 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Future climatic water balance perspectives under climate change scenarios – a Portuguese case study 

Sabrina Formigoni, Teresa Albuquerque, Catarina Silva, Natalia Roque, Fulvio Celico, and Marco D'Oria

This study aims to determine the potential evolution of the climatic water balance in the Viso-Queridas Aquifer system, Portugal, under various climate change scenarios, to identify critical patterns and vulnerabilities, providing a spatial assessment of potential changes in water availability over time, which combines point-based climatic water balance with geostatistical techniques.

The Viso-Queridas Aquifer System is located in Coimbra (Portugal). The aquifer is moderately productive, primarily porous, and composed of detrital materials with highly variable textures and a lenticular structure about 200 m thick. Clay layers separate the various aquifer units, giving the aquifer a multilayered character. Due to the variability in granulometric composition, the hydraulic characteristics can vary significantly from one location to another. The aquifer is expected to be bounded at the top by a free surface; however, as depth increases, the multilayered structure quickly introduces confined/semi-confined conditions.

Historical precipitation and temperature data (1971-2000) were obtained from the WorldClim portal, along with future climate projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-45: “Middle of the Road” (intermediate emission: CO2 emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero); SSP3-70: “A Rocky Road” (high emissions: CO2 emissions double by 2100) and SSP5-85: “Taking the Highway” (very high emissions: CO2 emissions triple by 2075).

The Thornthwaite equation was used to estimate potential evapotranspiration, enabling the computation of climatic water balances for the historical period and two future timeframes: 2041–2060 (centered on 2050) and 2081–2100 (centered on 2090), at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds. Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) was used to map the spatial distribution of the climatic water balance and its associated uncertainty, while G-cluster analysis was conducted to identify significant spatial clusters.

Analysis focused on August (dry season) and December (wet season) revealed key patterns in the water balance evolution. Critical areas expanding significantly in the eastern part of the study region led to severe deficits (negative values) being most prevalent in August 2090. The already vulnerable area is being affected more and more, which highlights the growing pressure on water resources during the dry season. In contrast, December exhibited positive water balances due to higher precipitation and reduced evapotranspiration; however, critical areas in this month shifted towards the south and southeast, underscoring the persistent vulnerability of the eastern region.

The most pronounced spatial changes were observed especially between 2050 and 2090, where stable zones progressively transitioned to negative balances, revealing the stark contrast between August, and December.

This study highlights how the Viso-Queridas Aquifer system may be increasingly impacted by climate change, with significant seasonal and spatial disparities in climatic water balance. The findings stress the urgency of implementing adaptive water management strategies focused on the most vulnerable areas particularly the eastern regions during summer and the southern areas during winter. These insights aim to assist policymakers in developing sustainable and resilient approaches to safeguard groundwater resources in Portugal, ensuring their availability for future generations.

How to cite: Formigoni, S., Albuquerque, T., Silva, C., Roque, N., Celico, F., and D'Oria, M.: Future climatic water balance perspectives under climate change scenarios – a Portuguese case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11620, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11620, 2025.

EGU25-14526 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4

Long-Term Influence of Climate Variability on Hydrological Extremes across European Alpine Rivers 

Rui Guo, Hung Nguyen, Stefano Galelli, Serena Ceola, and Alberto Montanari

Four of the largest river basins in Europe – Rhine, Rhône, Po, and Danube – are fed by Alpine water resources. Recent hydrological extremes, including catastrophic floods and prolonged droughts, have highlighted the vulnerability of these basins to climatic variability, with significant consequences for downstream populations, economies, and ecosystems. Understanding the potential drivers behind changes in streamflow patterns, particularly the relative contributions of precipitation and temperature, is essential for improving the attribution of extreme hydrological events and informing sustainable freshwater resource management. However, relatively short instrumental hydroclimatic records (i.e., precipitation, temperature and streamflow) in the European Alps limit our understanding of the long-term influence of climate variability on hydrological extremes. Here, by integrating paleo streamflow reconstructions, paleo climatic reanalysis, and climate model simulations, we examine how past and future variability in precipitation and temperature has influenced extreme hydrological events. Through advanced statistical and machine learning approaches, we quantify the relative contributions of precipitation and temperature to observed, reconstructed and projected streamflow anomalies, exploring their respective roles in triggering extreme flood and drought events. By comparing historical trends with future projections across different climate scenarios, we aim to identify the primary climatic drivers of hydrological extremes and their evolution over time. This work highlights the need for a better understanding of long-term climatic forcing mechanisms to improve attributions of hydrological extremes and develop robust adaptation strategies for the Alpine region and its vital river basins.

How to cite: Guo, R., Nguyen, H., Galelli, S., Ceola, S., and Montanari, A.: Long-Term Influence of Climate Variability on Hydrological Extremes across European Alpine Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14526, 2025.

EGU25-20427 | ECS | PICO | HS7.4 | Highlight

How the response of high river flows to warming across the US is only loosely tied to precipitation 

Marc Prange, Ming Zhao, Elena Shevliakova, Minki Hong, and Sergey Malyshev

Efforts in enhancing resolutions of climate models are largely motivated by improving the representation of precipitation. Accurately capturing precipitation is key for understanding how a variety of natural hazards will change in the future, such as floods and droughts. Recent advances of climate models within HIGHRES-MIP to 50 km resolution and higher showed significant improvements in representing precipitation compared to CMIP6, particularly that associated with frontal systems of the mid-latitudes often manifesting as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Here, we leverage these new capabilities to study the sensitivity of high river streamflows on land to warming. We do so by utilizing the coupled atmosphere and land surface model AM4/LM4.0 developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). By applying a lagged correlation analysis between streamflows of the coupled river network and its upstream drivers, we identify major changes in drivers of high flows in response to a simple pseudo global warming experiment that yields a spatially homogeneous precipitation increase across most of the US.

We find that changes in high river flows show a strong dipole pattern across the US with increases in the East and decreases in most of the West. The increase in high-flows over the Eastern US is driven by an increase in precipitation-driven high-flows that exceeds the reduction in melt-driven high-flows. Among precipitation-driven high-flows, ARs contribute most to the increase. The reduction of high flows across the central and Western US is explained by significantly weaker snowmelt in spring. Here, increases in precipitation with warming, particularly from ARs, are counteracted by increased evaporation causing streamflows to dwindle. A Budyko-Analysis reveals that the disconnect of changes in precipitation and high flows can be explained by the energetic potential of the land-surface to evaporate the additional precipitation. While this potential is high over the central and Western US, it is low over the Eastern US. Finally, the overall reduction of snowmelt is found to alter the seasonality of high-flows with warming, for example in different sub-basins of the Mississippi where the month of peak high-flows shifts from March to May.

How to cite: Prange, M., Zhao, M., Shevliakova, E., Hong, M., and Malyshev, S.: How the response of high river flows to warming across the US is only loosely tied to precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20427, 2025.

Determination of the reliable estimate of risk associated with hydrometeorological extremes over a region requires discerning information on spatial variability of the associated at-site statistics/parameters. Extreme rainfall at finer spatio-temporal resolution allows for improved analysis of spatial variability, as local-scale statistical similarities (LSS) and heterogeneities are disclosed. The knowledge of LSS facilitates the use of information on regional spatial variability (in lieu of complex at-site spatial variability) for risk analysis. In addition, it is established in literature that geographical features influence the occurrence of extreme rainfall over an area. For a subcontinent with complex non-uniform patterns of geographical features, the regional spatial variability may be influenced by the geographic composition. To quantify this regional spatial variability, statistically homogenous regions need to be deciphered. Most studies on the regionalization of sub-daily extreme rainfall (SDER) are limited to a smaller spatial extent, and none was focused on a subcontinent. Furthermore, there are no prior studies focused on the analysis of regional spatial variability of SDER. To study the role of geography in modulation of the regional spatial variability of mesoscale SDER, the present study proposes a framework. It involves (i) dividing the study area into subareas based on geographical features, as they are deemed to influence the occurrence of extreme rainfall, (ii) the delineation of each subarea into statistically homogenous SDER regions using a novel regionalization technique, (iii) quantification of the regional spatial variability of SDER in each subarea using the delineated regions and a proposed novel index, and (iv) identifying the role of geographic features in modulating the regional spatial variability. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated by application to Indian subcontinent (66.5-100o E, 6.5-38.5o N) considering 0.12o resolution SDER data corresponding to different durations (1,2,3,6 and 12-hour) for the period 1981-2020. The data were prepared by bias correcting the 0.12o resolution NCMRWF IMDAA hourly gridded rainfall (at 20,717 grids) to be consistent with the widely used 0.25o resolution IMD (India Meteorological Department) daily rainfall. The Indian subcontinent is divided into seven subareas based on geographic features. On application of the framework, it has been found that the regional spatial variability of SDER in a subarea is regulated by its geography and that of its neighbouring subareas. Insights are obtained on the effect of factors such as orography and coastal width on regional spatial variability of SDER. The study is of significance as the knowledge discerned on potential covariates/attributes has wide applications including identification of similar extreme rainfall sites for regional frequency analysis for extreme rainfall and risk assessment of consequent floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged hotspots such as water control (e.g., dams, barrages, levees) and conveyance infrastructure (culverts) in river basins under various climate change scenarios. The inherent physio-geographic features of the catchment may not be enough to analyze the similarity with neighbouring catchments. The boundary conditions around the catchment also plays a role. 

How to cite: Varshney, A. and Srinivas, V. V.: A New Framework for Quantification of Regional Spatial Variability of Mesoscale Sub-daily Extreme Rainfall for Subcontinent , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1068, 2025.

Climate change intensifies the global hydrological cycle, altering hydrometeorological variables and amplifying flood risks, with significant social, economic, and environmental consequences. Reliable flood estimates are crucial for designing cost-effective flood protection structures. The assessment often focusses only on peak discharge, overlooking vital factors like flood wave frequency, duration, and time to peak, which are key elements for preparedness and resilience. Although. the use of general circulation models (GCMs) for future simulations has advanced our understanding of catastrophic floods under climate change. Yet, the socio-economic impacts of these events remain insufficiently explored, leaving crucial vulnerabilities inadequately addressed. This study therefore evaluates the flood characteristics and socio-economic vulnerabilities in a large river basin using downscaled GCMs of CMIP6. The hydrological and hydrodynamic models were used for determining the flood wave characteristics considering non stationarity. We also examine the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, aligned with COP28 goals, by assessing global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C and the EF (2021–2050) and FF (2071–2100).

The flood peaks in major cities are projected to rise by 10–14% during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, with high-warming scenarios causing a ~35% increase in high flow by 2100. However, limiting the warming to 1.5°C could reduce the return flood discharge by 9,000 m³/s in FF. The projections indicate a paradigm shift in the flood wave characteristics of the basin, with a notable increase in both flood wave duration (~0.31 days per year) and frequency (~3 more flood waves) during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Socio-economic vulnerability assessments reveal heightened risks under high-warming scenarios, driven by population growth and intensified hydroclimatic extremes, leading to greater inundation extents, depths, and displacement risks. These findings underscore the urgent need for global and regional cooperation, evidence-based policies, and climate-resilient infrastructure to mitigate flood risks and adapt to evolving hydroclimatic extremes in vulnerable transboundary basins.

How to cite: Gupta, R. and Chembolu, V.: Flood Vulnerability under High-Warming Scenarios: Insights from flood wave Projections and Socio-Economic Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1079, 2025.

EGU25-1255 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Sources and characteristics of short-duration heavy convective precipitation events in the southeastern Alpine forelands 

Stephanie Haas, Nadav Peleg, Gottfried Kirchengast, and Jürgen Fuchsberger

Severe short-duration thunderstorms are a characteristic part of summer rainfall in the southeastern Alpine forelands. These heavy convective precipitation events (HCPEs) pose a severe risk to the region in the form of flash floods and landslides. Despite their crucial role in summer rainfall and natural hazards, the moisture sources and spatial structure of such HCPEs are still largely unknown.

The presented study links these highly localized events to large-scale processes to identify possible moisture source regions through backward trajectories obtained from Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model runs with ERA5 data. To complement this large-scale analysis, we use high-resolution data from the dense WegenerNet climate station network in southeastern Austria, to investigate the local characteristics and spatial structure of HCPEs.

The combination of large- and local-scale analysis results in a multi-faceted picture of HCPEs and their characteristics. We find that temperature is a key driver of HCPEs and that moisture from the Mediterranean region is a key influencing factor on the occurrence, magnitude, and spatial extent of such events in the study region. Furthermore, we find differences in the storm characteristics depending on the season and region of moisture source.

From a more general perspective, our findings imply that rises in temperature and humidity will likely result in more intense HCPEs with larger spatial extents, which potentially will increase the severity of floods and other natural hazards and hence also the damage risks in the southeastern Alpine forelands.

How to cite: Haas, S., Peleg, N., Kirchengast, G., and Fuchsberger, J.: Sources and characteristics of short-duration heavy convective precipitation events in the southeastern Alpine forelands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1255, 2025.

EGU25-1636 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Regional Disparities in Hydro-climatic Extremes Across Central Asia: Insights from the Tienshan Mountains 

Xueqi Zhang, Yaning Chen, Zhi Li, Fan Sun, Yupeng Li, and Yifeng Hou

The Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia, a key region in global arid and semi-arid zones, faces highly uneven precipitation distribution due to its unique topography and climate. Precipitation variations significantly affect the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and hydrological security. While extreme heavy precipitation has been widely studied, research on extreme light precipitation is limited. Additionally, spatial distribution patterns and driving mechanisms of extreme events under varying climatic and geomorphic conditions remain underexplored. This study systematically examines the spatial-temporal trends of extreme hydro-climatic events in the Tienshan Mountains, focusing on both heavy and light precipitation, to provide insights for water resource management and disaster prevention.

The Tienshan Mountains have experienced significant changes in extreme hydro-climatic events since 2000. The frequency anomaly of extreme light precipitation events (R1p) shifted from positive to negative, indicating a marked decline compared to the historical average, while extreme heavy precipitation events (R99p) shifted from negative to positive, reflecting a substantial increase in frequency. The intensity of both events has also risen notably during this period. Spatially, the intensity variations of extreme events show consistent signals across the Tienshan region, while frequency exhibits strong spatial heterogeneity. Around 80°E, extreme heavy precipitation frequency increases eastward and decreases westward. Vertically, mid-altitudes exhibit the most pronounced changes. The frequency of extreme light precipitation declines at 0.471 days/year in mid-altitudes compared to 0.356 days/year at high altitudes. Similarly, extreme heavy precipitation intensity increases at 0.106 mm/year in mid-altitudes, much higher than 0.014 mm/year at high altitudes. These patterns result from the combined effects of Tibetan Plateau thermal dynamics and monsoon-driven moisture transport, creating distinct differences in extreme precipitation between the eastern and western Tienshan. Future studies should explore the interactions between the plateau and atmospheric circulation to improve the prediction and mitigation of extreme events, aiding water resource management and disaster preparedness.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Chen, Y., Li, Z., Sun, F., Li, Y., and Hou, Y.: Regional Disparities in Hydro-climatic Extremes Across Central Asia: Insights from the Tienshan Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1636, 2025.

EGU25-1794 | ECS | Orals | HS7.5

Increasing typhoon risks in Shanghai under the effect of urbanization and sea surface temperature warming 

Qi Zhuang, Marika Koukoula, Shuguang Liu, Zhengzheng Zhou, and Nadav Peleg

Tropical cyclones, also known as typhoons in the western North Pacific, are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the world, especially when they strike highly urbanized regions with large populations. For instance, in September 2024, two typhoons, Bebinca and Pulasan, directly affected Shanghai within 4 days, resulting in severe floods, widespread power outages, and the evacuation of more than 500,000 residents. However, there is limited knowledge about the variability and mechanism of typhoon activities in this region under the effect of climate change and urbanization. In light of these facts, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) convection-permitting model to simulate five typhoon events that made landfall along the southeastern coast of China and severely impacted Shanghai between 2018 and 2022. By comparing with various scenarios, including the current and projected expansion of Shanghai's urban area and the 1, 2, and 3 °C rise in sea surface temperature (SST), the effects of urbanization and climate change are estimated. The results find that typhoon tracks are significantly shifted southerly away from the city by higher SST, but the typhoon risk continues to increase due to substantial enhancement of rainfall intensity and wind velocity. Warmer SST increases air temperature and decreases sea level pressure, thereby facilitating the formation and development of typhoon sizes and their dynamic systems. The southward shift of the typhoon tracks is linked to the Fujiwhara effect when two typhoons exist and interact, causing an intensified mutual counterclockwise rotation with SST increase. Urbanization further intensifies the local rainfall intensity within Shanghai due to the increase in urban surface roughness. In the future, the risk of typhoons under the compound effects of urbanization and climate warming in Shanghai and other megacities in typhoon-affected regions should be raised to attention.

How to cite: Zhuang, Q., Koukoula, M., Liu, S., Zhou, Z., and Peleg, N.: Increasing typhoon risks in Shanghai under the effect of urbanization and sea surface temperature warming, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1794, 2025.

EGU25-1877 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Analysis of extreme precipitation timeseries in Serbia based on station data 

Lazar Filipovic, Ivana Tosic, Antonio Samuel Alves de Silva, Borko Stosic, Tatijana Stosic, and Vladimir Djudjevic

Serbia lies between Central and Southern Europe and is characterised by a complex topography, with the Pannonian Plain in the north and the Dinaric Alps in the west and southwest. Three climate types characterise Serbia: continental climate in the north, temperate continental climate in the central part and modified Mediterranean climate in the south. Precipitation in Serbia is generally the result of passing cyclones and associated atmospheric fronts as part of the general circulation of the atmosphere in the mid-latitudes (Tošić et al., 2017). In recent decades, flash flooding resulting from extreme precipitation events has proven to be a great threat to human life and a great cause of economic strife (an estimate of 1.7 billion euros in damages in 2014 alone when catastrophic flooding occurred in Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia).

The highest yearly 1-day precipitation (Rx1day) was analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis at ten stations in Serbia in the period 1961-2020. The modified Mann-Kendall test was used to examine the significance of the trend. An increase was observed in all annual time series of Rx1day. A significant positive trend was observed at 9 out of 10 stations. The Rx1day time series increased in Niš in southern Serbia, but not significantly. In addition, all fall and spring time series showed a positive trend, of which 8 and 5, respectively, were significant. In summer, 5 stations (Zrenjanin, Novi Sad, Veliko Gradište, Kragujevac and Zaječar) showed a significant positive trend, while 4 stations (Sremska Mitrovica, Belgrade, Loznica and Kragujevac) showed a positive trend and one (Niš) showed a negative but non-significant trend. In winter, a significant increase in Rx1day was observed at two stations (Kragujevac and Zaječar) and a negative trend at Veliko Gradište. The generalised extreme value function was calculated and analyzed for all of the available stations, for the periods of 1961-1990, 1990-2020 and 1961-2020 with the inclusion of return periods.

The highest increase of Rx1day was observed in Novi Sad, both on an annual and seasonal basis. The highest summer value of Rx1day (116.6 mm) was measured in Novi Sad in 2018, which led to flooding in the city (Savić et al., 2020). This precipitation episode was determined to be caused by convective rainfall.

Tošić, I., Unkašević, M., Putniković, S., 2017: Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 128, 785–794. doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1749-2

Savić, S.; Kalfayan, M.; Dolinaj, D. Precipitation Spatial Patterns in Cities with Different Urbanisation Types: Case Study of Novi Sad (Serbia) as a Medium-sized City. Geogr. Pannon. 2020, 24 (2), 88–99. https://doi.org/10.5937/gp24-25202

How to cite: Filipovic, L., Tosic, I., de Silva, A. S. A., Stosic, B., Stosic, T., and Djudjevic, V.: Analysis of extreme precipitation timeseries in Serbia based on station data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1877, 2025.

EGU25-2722 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Sensitivity of pluvial flood exposure to the selection of intensity-duration-frequency data 

Jannis Hoch, Anthony Cooper, and Conor Lamb

Pluvial floods are and will remain an important driver of flood risk, especially in an urban context. Recently, several floods triggered by extreme rainfall made the news and led to many casualties, such as those in Valencia and Nepal in 2024. To better prepare for such disasters, urban planners may use pluvial flood maps to assess flood risk and plan accordingly. Typically, such maps are produced by distributing rainfall over topography using a hydraulic model which solves some variation of the shallow water equations. While the decision for a specific hydraulic model may impact pluvial flood maps, here we will focus on the role of pluvial input data.

Typically, intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) data is used to drive these models, yet these data are highly uncertain due to, for instance, the absence of accurate rainfall observations or the application of extreme value statistics.

Here, we present results of a sensitivity analysis in which we employed a range of global and national IDF data sets, such as NOAA Atlas 14, KOSTRA-DWD, BURGER, GPEX, PPDIST and PXR. Each data set is unique in the amount of data it was produced with, the spatial extent, the spatial regionalization of point-based estimates, the extreme value distribution used, and so forth. All IDF datasets were fed into a hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) using the Chicago Design Storm (CDS) method to produce consistent and comparable maps of pluvial flood hazard for several test cases. Subsequently, the (dis-)agreement of the flood maps obtained is assessed.

To convert flood maps into impact, they are intersected with exposure data to obtain an estimate of average annual exposure (AAE) to pluvial floods, which is a better measure for assessing the impact of these floods.

While we expect that intensities extracted from the different IDF data sets will differ markedly, this study will shed light on the impact these differences may have on flood hazard and flood exposure estimates.

How to cite: Hoch, J., Cooper, A., and Lamb, C.: Sensitivity of pluvial flood exposure to the selection of intensity-duration-frequency data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2722, 2025.

EGU25-3385 | ECS | Orals | HS7.5

Integrating natural hazards and social vulnerability to estimate lightning-related mortality risk in Mexico 

Alejandro Jaramillo and Christian Dominguez

Lightning poses a significant threat to life, infrastructure, and economic sectors worldwide. This study evaluates lightning risk at the municipal level in Mexico by integrating the interplay of natural hazards and social vulnerability into a comprehensive risk estimation. Although lightning-related fatalities have declined in Mexico, likely driven by demographic shifts and improved urban infrastructure, significant social vulnerability persists, particularly in rural areas where labor-intensive agriculture and lower education levels are prevalent. Using this integrated approach, we develop a lightning fatality risk map that identifies high-risk regions in Mexico. These regions are characterized by high lightning occurrence and elevated social vulnerability. By providing detailed municipal-level insights, this research contributes to advancing local resilience and informing policy and disaster risk mitigation efforts, ultimately enhancing public safety in the face of natural hazards.

How to cite: Jaramillo, A. and Dominguez, C.: Integrating natural hazards and social vulnerability to estimate lightning-related mortality risk in Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3385, 2025.

Sardinia Island, situated in the Mediterranean Sea, is a water-scarce region frequently affected by severe multi-year droughts. This study investigates the dynamics of two distinct reservoir systems on the island—Bau Pressiu, a single reservoir with a small basin and limited storage capacity, and Flumendosa, a complex system of four interconnected reservoirs. By analyzing their monthly reservoir storage dynamics alongside the basin’s average monthly precipitation, we aim to understand their response to drought and its propagation. We employed the n-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and 1-month Standardized Storage Dynamics Index (SSDI), calculated using non-parametric fitting methods, to characterize precipitation and storage variability. Correlation analyses using Pearson and Kendall’s tau identified the precipitation accumulation period (propagation time) strongly correlated with storage dynamics. Contrasting operational rules and societal demands led to markedly different responses during droughts between the two systems. Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) analyses revealed multiscale correlations between precipitation and reservoir storage. While precipitation exhibited independent multiscale power, reservoir signals displayed consistent annual-scale power linked to societal demand during summers and broader-scale patterns during severe droughts. Additionally, cross-wavelet analyses between SPI and large-scale climatic indicators, such as the Niño 3.4 index and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), highlighted their significant but contrasting influences during multiyear droughts. Our findings confirm that both systems effectively mitigate short-term drought impacts. However, multiyear droughts, driven predominantly by large-scale climatic oscillations, severely strain reservoir systems and societal resilience, underscoring the so-called "reservoir effects". These insights are critical for improving water resource management strategies in drought-prone regions like Sardinia.

Keywords: multiyear drought, storage dynamics, wavelet analysis, climatic drivers, reservoir effect

How to cite: Majhi, A., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: Unveiling the Climatic Drivers of Multi-Year Droughts in Sardinia: A Study of Reservoir Storage and Precipitation Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4161, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4161, 2025.

EGU25-5145 | Orals | HS7.5

Identifying trends in extreme hydro-meteorological events to assess water-related hazards in urban-rural areas in South Africa 

Torsten Weber, Sophie Biskop, Fabian Schreiter, Muhammad Fraz Ismail, Hubert Lohr, Deborah Schaudt, Christine Fürst, and Francois Engelbrecht

Building resilience in urban-rural areas against hydro-meteorological hazards such as prolonged droughts and floods is crucial for economic development and safeguarding vulnerable people in Africa. Extreme hydro-meteorological events are projected to become more frequent and intense under climate change, leading to human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts. In particular, southern Africa exhibits pronounced hydro-meteorological extreme events in response to El Niño and La Niña events, with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts projected to intensify in southern Africa in a warmer world. Two of South Africa’s major river systems have been identified as hot spots of water-related hazards, in the context of major risks of water insecurity and flood disasters in a warmer world.

The Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS), a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, serves as a water lifeline of the Gauteng Province, the economic hub in South Africa. The IVRS is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts. Although a drought so severe that the IVRS can no longer supply the Gauteng Province with water (a ‘day-zero drought’) has never occurred before in the historical record, a four-year drought culminating in the El Niño drought of 2015/2016 resulted in the level of the Vaal Dam falling to about 25% (a dam level below 20% would have implied the presence of a day-zero drought). East of the Lesotho highlands, major rivers such as the Umgeni drain eastwards towards the KwaZulu-Natal coastal plain. These rivers are prone to flooding, especially during La Niña years. In April 2022, South Africa experienced its worst flood disaster when more than 544 people died during flash flooding in the Umgeni, Mlazi and Mbokodweni rivers in the greater Durban area. Present analysis focuses on changes in trends and characteristics of drought and extreme precipitation events in both study regions for the past 40-years using the ERA5-Land reanalysis and observational datasets such as CHIRPS. The ERA5-Land dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x0.1° (~11 km) and goes back to 1950, making it possible to analyse long-term trends of meteorological drought and extreme precipitation. Results will highlight changes in frequency, duration and intensity of hydro-meteorological extreme events.

The research is part of the “Water security in Africa – WASA” programme, project WaRisCo, which deals with water risks and resilience in urban-rural areas in southern Africa and the co-production of hydro-climate services for an adaptive and sustainable disaster risk management.

How to cite: Weber, T., Biskop, S., Schreiter, F., Ismail, M. F., Lohr, H., Schaudt, D., Fürst, C., and Engelbrecht, F.: Identifying trends in extreme hydro-meteorological events to assess water-related hazards in urban-rural areas in South Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5145, 2025.

EGU25-5363 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

An Improved DP-POA Method for Optimal Operation of Reservoir Flood Control 

Yawei Ning, Minglei Ren, Junbin Zhang, Rong Tang, Liping Zhao, and Gang Wang

The consuming-time of the algorithm for solving the reservoir optimal operation model is crucial to real-time flood control. The traditional DP-POA (Dynamic Programmin-Progressive Optimization Algorithm) has better solutions but takes a long time. This study proposed an improved DP-POA method, which effectively reduces the amount of calculation and improves the calculation speed by simplifying the objective function. Taking Yuecheng Reservoir in China as an example, this study conducted a comparative analysis of five algorithms, including improved DP-POA, traditional DP-POA, improved POA, traditional POA and PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization). The results show that the improved DP-POA exhibits significant advantages in both consuming-time and solution quality. In the 2021 flood case, compared with the traditional DP-POA, the consuming-time of the improved DP-POA is shortened from about half an hour to less than 5 minutes; meanwhile, the solution of the improved DP-POA is better than or basically equal to other comparative methods.

How to cite: Ning, Y., Ren, M., Zhang, J., Tang, R., Zhao, L., and Wang, G.: An Improved DP-POA Method for Optimal Operation of Reservoir Flood Control, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5363, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5363, 2025.

EGU25-5958 | Posters on site | HS7.5

StoryMaps: Advancing Public Awareness, Preparedness, and Resilience to Flood Risks 

Peter Fischer-Stabel, Jaqueline Hoffmann, and Joshua Azvedo

Floods count as some of the most devastating natural disasters, inflicting extensive damage on infrastructure, disrupting communities, and posing serious threats to human lives. The flooding in Germany’s Ahr Valley in 2021 is a strong reminder of the devastating consequences. The increasing intensity of such events, driven by climate change, underscores the urgency of enhanced prevention and preparedness strategies (Deumlich & Gericke, 2020).

Fluvial (river) floods, which often occur at regular intervals, tend to remain in the collective memory of affected populations. However, when sufficient time passes without an event, a phenomenon referred to as "flood dementia" can emerge. This leads to diminished public awareness and preparedness, increasing vulnerability during future disasters. The issue is even more pronounced with pluvial (rainfall-induced) floods, which are harder to predict and therefore require robust preventive measures.

Effective flood risk management demands targeted approaches to engage diverse demographic groups. A survey conducted as part of the BMBF-FloReST project revealed significant disparities in awareness across age groups. While individuals aged 50 and older were well-represented in the survey, those aged 20 and younger were notably underrepresented. This younger age group often lacks the life experience needed to fully comprehend the impacts of pluvial flooding, underscoring the importance of targeted educational initiatives.

StoryMaps have emerged as a valuable tool for addressing this gap, particularly among younger audiences. By integrating geospatial data visualization with storytelling elements such as maps, images, videos, and narratives, StoryMaps transform complex environmental information into an engaging and accessible format. Young people, who are more responsive to interactive and visually rich content, benefit from enhanced comprehension and retention. For example, StoryMaps can depict flood-prone areas, recount historical flood events, and simulate potential outcomes of mitigation strategies, thus bridging technical concepts with tangible, real-world examples.

Furthermore, StoryMaps help young people connect local flood risks to broader global challenges. By exploring the links between climate change and flooding, students can better understand the interconnectedness of environmental issues. This fosters a sense of accountability and encourages proactive participation in community resilience initiatives. Additionally, StoryMaps promote critical thinking by enabling users to explore “what-if” scenarios, such as the impacts of improved drainage systems or reforestation on flood dynamics.

Their digital accessibility makes StoryMaps particularly effective for engaging tech-savvy younger generations. They can be seamlessly incorporated into school curricula, workshops, and community outreach programs, equipping young people with practical knowledge about sustainable water management and disaster preparedness.

In conclusion, StoryMaps represent a forward-thinking approach to flood risk awareness and education, particularly for younger audiences. By blending education with engagement, they empower a generation to better understand and address the challenges of climate-related disasters. Our presentation will showcase two StoryMaps—focused on the 2021 Ahr Valley flood and the 2024 Saarland Pentecost flood—developed as part of the FloReST project and introduced in schools to foster awareness and resilience among young learners.

How to cite: Fischer-Stabel, P., Hoffmann, J., and Azvedo, J.: StoryMaps: Advancing Public Awareness, Preparedness, and Resilience to Flood Risks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5958, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5958, 2025.

EGU25-6246 | Posters on site | HS7.5

Adaptation to flood risk on Reunion Island (France): A historical perspective from photographic evidence 

Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta, Jean Larive, François Taglioni, David Lorion, Salem Dahech, and Alizé Méchain

Reunion Island, situated in the Indian Ocean, has faced significant flood risks since its early settlement in the 17th century. Currently, the island comprises six territories identified as flood-risk areas (TRI). Understanding the historical context of this risk is crucial for effective management and adaptation strategies. To explore the evolution of flood risk, we examined a collection of historical postcards from the late 19th to early 20th centuries, archived at the Archives Départementales in Saint-Denis. We selected approximately fifty postcards based on specific criteria: the relationship between habitats and rivers, the need for a comprehensive spatial perspective, and the representation of diverse watersheds across the island. Field missions conducted in 2024 and 2025 allowed us to replicate the photographs at the same locations as depicted on the ancient postcards, facilitating a direct comparison of changes in land use and hydromorphological structures (including “planèzes”, slopes, and valley floors). Our findings reveal significant insights comparing land use from the late 19th century to the present day (2024-2025). We observed new housing developments on planèzes, which have heightened risks of urban runoff and flooding associated with small rivers. Certain regions remain unchanged, indicating that the original placement of habitats was appropriate, situated on alluvial terraces and slopes protected from landslides and debris flows. In contrast, urban encroachment into the active channels of large rivers (“ravines”) has created substantial risks for local populations. These findings align with the analyses of D. Lorion (2013), who characterizes the rise in flood-risk areas during the 1970s and 1980s as a manifestation of the 'security utopia' created by river embankment systems.

 

References

 

Lorion D. (2013) – From a utopia of security to the integrated management of drainage basins: The example of Reunion Island (France). In Arnaud-Fassetta G., Masson E., Reynard E. (Eds.) European continental hydrosystems under changing water policy. Friedrich Pfeil Verlag, München, 87-98.

How to cite: Arnaud-Fassetta, G., Larive, J., Taglioni, F., Lorion, D., Dahech, S., and Méchain, A.: Adaptation to flood risk on Reunion Island (France): A historical perspective from photographic evidence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6246, 2025.

EGU25-6432 | Orals | HS7.5 | Highlight

Large-Sample Machine Learning Models for Estimation, Attribution, and Projection of Hydrometeorological Extremes 

Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Simon Moulds, Yinxue Liu, Boen Zhang, Laurence Hawker, Liangkun Deng, and Emma Ford

The estimation, attribution or projection of hydro-meteorological extremes in individual locations is constrained by the limited number of observations of extreme events. Recent advances in large-sample machine learning (ML) models, however, have demonstrated significant potential to mitigate the impact of data scarcity on the quantification of hydrological risks. These models integrate hundreds to thousands of time-series records alongside local descriptors of climate and catchment characteristics, enabling them to learn relationships across diverse environments and provide accurate estimations of hydro-meteorological extremes. This presentation will highlight our recent advancements and challenges in developing large-sample ML models for estimating, attributing, and projecting hydro-meteorological extremes.

At the core of our ML models is the GRIT river network, a new global bifurcating network which includes multi-threaded rivers, canals, and deltas. Unlike conventional single-threaded global river networks, GRIT incorporates bifurcations derived from the 30m Landsat-based river mask from GRWL and elevation-based streams from the FABDEM digital terrain model. This realistic depiction is critical, as 98% of floods identified in the Global Flood Database occur within 10 km of a river bifurcation. Individual river reaches in GRIT are assigned a broad range of static and time-varying variables describing the local meteorology, climate, geology, soils, geomorphology, Earth observation, terrestrial water storage, land cover time series, socio-economic data, and a novel archive of historical river discharge records from approximately 60,000 gauges.

This novel dataset enables us to tackle three key challenges: (1) Flood estimation: We estimate flood hazards globally, such as bankfull river discharge, the mean annual flood, and return periods, and assess the ability of the models to produce spatially-consistent hazard estimates. By leveraging an expanded training envelope, the ML models generate reliable estimates in data-sparse regions. (2) Flood attribution: Leveraging a range of explainability methods such as model probes, sensitivity testing, SHAP, ALE, PDP, and gradient-based methods, we investigate flood-generating mechanisms across diverse catchment types. Explainable AI (XAI) tools enable us to interrogate the models to enhance our understanding of the physical and anthropogenic drivers of flooding. (3) Flood prediction and projection: We assess the utility of hybrid large-sample ML models trained directly on subseasonal to seasonal forecasts or Earth system model (ESM) outputs for future flood projections. We show how large-sample models can implicitly correct spatio-temporal biases in forecasts or ESM outputs and deliver reliable predictions, bypassing traditional modelling steps such as downscaling and bias-correction.

Finally, we discuss key challenges in large-sample modelling, such as systematic biases in training data, inconsistencies in XAI results, causality, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of simple ML models versus deep learning. These challenges underscore the need for continued innovation in large-sample model design and application. By integrating diverse datasets and advanced ML techniques, large-sample models present transformative opportunities for flood estimation, attribution, and projection, enabling informed decision-making for management of hydro-meteorological extremes.

 

How to cite: Slater, L., Wortmann, M., Moulds, S., Liu, Y., Zhang, B., Hawker, L., Deng, L., and Ford, E.: Large-Sample Machine Learning Models for Estimation, Attribution, and Projection of Hydrometeorological Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6432, 2025.

EGU25-6777 | Orals | HS7.5

The Risk of Negatively Biased and Overconfident Return Level Estimates: A Critique of the Metastatistical Approach to Extremes 

Torben Schmith, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, and Bo Christiansen

Classical extreme value analysis (EVA) often give large uncertainties on estimated return levels due to the limited length of real-world hydrological time series. The metastatistical extreme value (MEV) approach (Marani and Ignaccolo 2015) aims to overcome these limitations by describing all data using a common distribution, treating extremes as large ordinary data values. The above authors perform Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic time series generated from a Weibull distribution and fit a Weibull distribution to each series, as prescribed in the MEV approach. These simulations show that the MEV give unbiased estimates with smaller confidence intervals, compared with the GEV and Gumbel methods from classical EVA.

However, the MEV method neglects that physical mechanisms producing extremes often differ from those for ordinary events. Therefore, the ordinary and extreme events should in general be described by a mixture distribution and this may influence the results of MEV. To test this, we replicated their work and added a variant using synthetic time series from a Weibull mixture distribution, formed by mixing the original Weibull distribution with a tiny fraction of another Weibull distribution with a longer tail. This mimics the shift in distribution between ordinary and extreme events. When applying the Weibull-based MEV to the Weibull mixture samples, the MEV method produced systematically biased estimates, which are outside the confidence intervals provided by MEV. In contrast, GEV produced unbiased estimates that are inside the confidence interval.

Finally, goodness-of-fit tests are not able to distinguish between time series distributed according to Weibull and Weibull mixture, and can therefore provide no guidance on when to use MEV. In summary, we find the MEV approach unreliable for real-world applications and strongly caution against using it.

How to cite: Schmith, T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., and Christiansen, B.: The Risk of Negatively Biased and Overconfident Return Level Estimates: A Critique of the Metastatistical Approach to Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6777, 2025.

EGU25-6994 | ECS | Orals | HS7.5

Subjective and Objective Methods in Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) for Flood Mitigation: Implications on Policymaking 

Hassan Sabeh, Chadi Abdallah, Nanée Chahinian, Marie-George Tournoud, Rouya Hdeib, and Roger Moussa

Flood risk management comprises risk assessment through robust modeling and mitigation through measure implementation. Decision-making on mitigation measures is complicated by the plethora of criteria, stakeholder influence, implementation scale and financial constraints. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have emerged as valuable tools in this context, allowing for the systematic integration of diverse factors and perspectives. Nonetheless, MCDM applications in mitigation measure ranking remain challenged by the lack of informed evaluation of criteria and the diversity of measures at local reach-scale. This work aims to develop a comprehensive methodology for prioritizing flood mitigation measures. An application is conducted on a Mediterranean catchment, the Ostouane River (144 km2), Northern Lebanon. The approach involves identifying 11 intervention reaches, proposing 38 mitigation measures, and evaluating a set of 7 primary criteria decomposed into 19 multidimensional secondary criteria. We introduce criteria of effectiveness, technical, exposure and vulnerability in addition to the commonly used criteria of environmental impact, socio-economic impact, and cost. The criteria are evaluated based on qualitative and quantitative inputs derived from the literature, surveys, questionnaires, hydrological and hydraulic modelling. The TOPSIS model is employed using 6 subjective stakeholder-driven weighting methods and 6 data-driven objective weighting methods. The methodology is evaluated through a sensitivity analysis that emphasizes on the importance of measure effectiveness, environmental impact, and cost criteria in the model. Results show that subjective weighting methods tend to prioritize structural measures at downstream areas with high-value assets, while objective methods show a more balanced distribution of measures, including green solutions and upstream reaches. The total cost of the 10 prioritized measures using subjective methods is 20% higher than that of objective methods. However, the specific choice of a weighting method can imply a substantial variation in total implementation and maintenance cost. Essentially, the choice of weighting method in MCDM can significantly alter the resulting strategies and management of risk. This contrast highlights the need for policymakers to develop flexible, adaptive strategies that balance immediate protection needs with long-term sustainability goals. Overall, this work provides a novel approach for integrated flood risk management based on adapted local-scale and informed decision-making.

How to cite: Sabeh, H., Abdallah, C., Chahinian, N., Tournoud, M.-G., Hdeib, R., and Moussa, R.: Subjective and Objective Methods in Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) for Flood Mitigation: Implications on Policymaking, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6994, 2025.

Landslides, predominantly triggered by intense and prolonged rainfall, pose a critical hazard in the Himalayan region, with Indian Himalayas contributing approximately 15% of global rainfall-triggered landslides. Despite advances in landslide prediction, existing thresholds often fail to account for the diverse climatic and geophysical conditions across the Himalayas. To address these gaps, this study establishes both at-site and regional rainfall thresholds for landslide prediction by integrating advanced statistical techniques and environmental analyses. Seasonal rainfall thresholds were established to define rainy days, revealing higher winter thresholds in the Northwestern Himalayas (NWH) due to snowmelt contributions and elevated monsoon thresholds in the Northeastern Himalayas (NEH), driven by prolonged rainfall and antecedent moisture saturation. Building on this, we derived empirical event-duration (E-D) thresholds using a novel non-crossing quantile regression approach to ensure robustness against lower quantile crossing issues. The derived regional thresholds for NEH (E = -11.10 + 0.62D) and NWH (E = -12.00 + 0.63D) fits within global bounds . Land use/land cover (LULC) analysis and probabilistic mutual information ─ based analysis further identified critical environmental controls shaping these thresholds. In the NWH, built-up areas, elevation, and vegetation emerged as key factors playing significant roles in shaping rainfall thresholds to trigger landslides, while elevation, rangeland, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were significant in the NEH. These insights underscore the need for region-specific E-D thresholds for landslide prediction and disaster management in the Himalayan region. By integrating environmental controls into a 'physics-based statistical learning' framework, this study overcomes limitations of conventional empirical rainfall threshold for landslide prediction models, delivering region-specific thresholds, thereby enhancing disaster preparedness, a step towards developing a climate-resilient landslide early warning system in the Himalayas.

How to cite: Monga, D. and Ganguli, P.: Developing Site-Specific Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Prediction in the Himalayas: A Comparative Assessment between Northwestern and Northeastern Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7120, 2025.

EGU25-7334 | Posters on site | HS7.5

Rainfall extremes and their impacts: from the local to the National Scale. The INTENSE project.  

Elisa Arnone, Marco Marani, Leonardo V. Noto, Roberta Paranunzio, Matteo Darienzo, Antonio Francipane, Cesar Arturo Sanchez Pena, Juby Thomas, Dario Treppiedi, and Francesco Marra

This study describes the activities developed within the project “raINfall exTremEs and their impacts: from the local to the National ScalE (INTENSE)”, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR) and by the EU. INTENSE will provide a novel assessment of hazards related to extreme rainfall and landslides, to aid risk management at the local and national scales.

The long historical rainfall records available from rain gauges allow us to derive extreme precipitation probabilities in gauged locations, but they hardly represent ungauged areas and cannot adequately sample the spatial variability of extreme rainfall in areas with strong climatological gradients, such as orographic and coastal regions. To overcome these limitations, we collect national-scale observations from rain gauges, weather radars and satellites and we use state-of-the-art statistical approaches, stochastic weather generators, and physically based landslide models.

In particular, a novel statistical approach for the analysis of extreme values from remotely sensed rainfall is used to produce national scale maps of extreme rainfall at multiple scales. The INTENSE approach allows us to link local rainfall climatology (i.e. frequency of rainstorms; intensity of ordinary and extreme rainstorms; rainstorms temporal structure) to the probability of initiation of shallow mass movements, a long standing challenge in rainfall-related hazards assessment. This is done feeding physically based landslide initiation models with long simulations of climate variables able to adequately represent the statistics and properties of both ordinary and extreme rainstorms.

We present here the preliminary results of the project with a particular focus on (i) rainfall frequency analysis, (ii) downscaling of extreme precipitation, and (iii) of the critical soil moisture maps needed to trigger shallow movements in a selected case study.

 

This research received funding from European Union NextGenerationEU – National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), Mission 4, Component 2, Investiment 1.1 -PRIN 2022 – 2022ZC2522 - CUP G53D23001400006

How to cite: Arnone, E., Marani, M., Noto, L. V., Paranunzio, R., Darienzo, M., Francipane, A., Sanchez Pena, C. A., Thomas, J., Treppiedi, D., and Marra, F.: Rainfall extremes and their impacts: from the local to the National Scale. The INTENSE project. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7334, 2025.

EGU25-7484 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Evolving Dependence Structures Between Compound Flood Drivers Under Future Climate Scenarios: A case study over Greater Boston 

Stergios Emmanouil, Andreas Langousis, Elizabeth Perry, Joshua P. Hacker, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou

The assessment of compound flood risk often relies on the assumption that the dependence structure between flood drivers (e.g., rainfall intensity, coastal water levels, and streamflow) remains stationary under changing climatic conditions. Yet, traditional approaches that inherently assume stationary dependencies, or rely solely on historical relationships, may misrepresent flood risk and fail to identify hotspots of emerging infrastructure vulnerabilities. This study aims to (a) characterize the dependence structure between compound flood drivers using a parsimonious parametric framework, and (b) explore potential changes in this structure under future climate scenarios, by leveraging outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) regional climate projections. An ensemble of synthetic and historical storms is employed to simulate flood impacts across the Greater Boston region, forming the basis for statistically modeling the conditional dependence of the main flood drivers. Changes in the marginal distributions of these drivers, informed by CMIP6 simulations under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are also integrated into the dependence framework to evaluate future trajectories of compound flood risk. The findings focus on determining whether shifts in the dependence structure offer a more nuanced understanding of evolving flood risk profiles, as well as identifying areas where traditional stationary assumptions may result in systematic errors. Ultimately, the study advances understanding of the dynamic interplay between flood drivers under future climate scenarios, and supports the development of adaptation strategies for regions vulnerable to compound flooding.

How to cite: Emmanouil, S., Langousis, A., Perry, E., Hacker, J. P., and Anagnostou, E. N.: Evolving Dependence Structures Between Compound Flood Drivers Under Future Climate Scenarios: A case study over Greater Boston, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7484, 2025.

The floods that hit wide parts of Central Europe in July 2021 demonstrate the impact that extreme precipitation events can have on our continent. Heavy continuous rainfall from 12th to 15th of July 2021, caused by low-pressure system "Bernd", resulted in widespread flooding. In Germany, the federal states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia were particularly affected, experiencing the most fatalities and material damage. The rapid surge of rivers and creeks in these areas overwhelmed residents and authorities. After the flood, criticisms arose over inadequate crisis management and early warning systems. This raises the question of the extent to which the population was prepared for such an event and what lessons were learned to be better prepared for future climate-related hazards.

This research focuses on the question of how the experience of a highly disruptive disaster, such as the 2021 floods, affects the population's risk perception towards multiple natural hazards. Further, it assesses if severe affectedness and experiences with natural hazards trigger better preparedness and behavioural knowledge. To answer these questions, an online survey (n= >282) assesses risk perception and preparedness towards natural hazards. The survey was spread in Opladen and Schlebusch, two districts of the city of Leverkusen that were affected by the 2021 flood. Data from the survey underwent statistical analysis, including Pearson Correlation and linear regression.

Early results show that risk perception is highest for heavy rainfall, followed by river floods in both districts. However, the perception of heatwaves and drought differs in the two study areas. In Opladen, where the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is more pronounced, the risk of heat and drought is perceived more strongly compared to Schlebusch. We also analysed how the 2021 flood affected people's perception of natural hazard risk. Results reveal that more than 75% of respondents in Opladen and more than 60% of respondents in Schlebusch reported an altered risk perception after the 2021 floods. Before this event, the risk perception towards extreme precipitation and river flooding was notably lower. Of all natural hazards mentioned in the questionnaire, heat was perceived as the greatest threat in Opladen, while in Schlebusch it was storms.

The findings of this study will be used in the BMBF project Co-Site to design risk communication strategies and workshops aimed at enhancing the public’s preparedness for natural hazards. Understanding people’s risk perception and preparedness for natural hazards can help identify training needs for better preparedness and foster appropriate communication about disaster risk.

Keywords: Risk Perception, Natural Hazards, Preparedness, Germany

How to cite: Könsgen, I., Braun, B., and Nehren, U.: How do disruptive events influence risk perception and preparedness towards natural hazards? An empirical study in Leverkusen, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8371, 2025.

EGU25-8795 | Posters on site | HS7.5

Nowcasting Radar for Hydrological Flood Prediction: applications in the Marche Region, Italy 

Barbara Tomassetti, Francesco Iocca, Francesca Sini, Gabriella Speranza, Valentino Giordano, Mario Montopoli, Saverio Di Fabio, Lorenzo Giorgio Didimi, Marco Lazzeri, Marco Tedeschini, Marco Pellegrini, and Annalina Lombardi

Accurate flood forecasting is essential to mitigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on communities and infrastructure. Traditional hydrological prediction methods often rely on rain gauge data and numerical models, which can be limited in capturing precipitation's spatial and temporal dynamics, particularly during intense or rapid-onset events. X-band polarimetric radar provides a valuable alternative for quantitative rainfall estimation, offering finer spatial and temporal resolution crucial for hydrological applications.

This study investigates the integration of radar nowcasting into flood forecasting workflows, focusing on data from an X-band polarimetric radar operated by the Civil Protection Service of the Marche Region, Italy. Several case studies have been analyzed considering different precipitation regimes: convective events with a short-time peak of intense rainfall and stratiform events, characterized by several hours of persistent precipitation associated with frontal systems.

The Cetemps Hydrological Model (CHyM) is used to simulate river discharge and assess hydrological stress indices under three scenarios: (1) rain gauge data alone, (2) radar data alone, and (3) radar data integrated with nowcasting outputs to generate 1-hour forecasted rainfall fields. Results demonstrate that radar-based nowcasting significantly improves flood prediction accuracy and lead time, particularly in flash flood scenarios driven by convective systems.

This study highlights the importance of radar nowcasting techniques in improving flood forecasting capabilities for enhancing flood prediction in regions prone to extreme rainfall, emphasizing its role in building more resilient and proactive flood management systems.

How to cite: Tomassetti, B., Iocca, F., Sini, F., Speranza, G., Giordano, V., Montopoli, M., Di Fabio, S., Didimi, L. G., Lazzeri, M., Tedeschini, M., Pellegrini, M., and Lombardi, A.: Nowcasting Radar for Hydrological Flood Prediction: applications in the Marche Region, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8795, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8795, 2025.

EGU25-9425 | Orals | HS7.5

Recent European floods from a (re)insurance market perspective 

Francesco Zuccarello, Christopher Masafu, Brian Kerschner, Sumeet Kulkarni, and Laurence Taylor

A nearly stationary low-pressure system generated significant rainfall across central Europe in September 2024 resulting in life-threatening and costly flooding in Central and Eastern Europe. Catastrophic floods also struck southern Spain in October and southern Germany from late May to early June. These events marked an escalation in severity compared to 2023, which saw major flood events impacting Italy and Greece in June and September, respectively. This escalating pattern of widespread, severe flooding, coupled with rising financial losses and risks, has drawn significant attention from (re)insurers.

We present a retrospective on these events using the Gallagher Re Europe Flood Model, a pan-European flood catastrophe model designed to assess the potential financial impact of floods in terms of their magnitude and likelihood. By using quantitative indexes to compare observed flooding with thousands of stochastic event footprints included in the model, we show that a complementary qualitative analysis is necessary to identify the most representative events. This hazard-based analysis is than complemented by the estimation of financial losses. The results reveal a range of losses for near-similar events, reflecting the complexities involved in modelling the financial impact of flooding. These complexities include, but are not limited to, the granularity of the peril, the geo-localization of the exposure and the impact of flood defences. For example, by leveraging the flexibility of our model, we show an estimate of the financial implications for a (re)insurer should the defences have failed during the development of major events.    

In conclusion, while there is no control on the meteorological drivers of such events, our  analyses shows the relevance and importance of catastrophe models to support (re)insurers in targeted exposure management and improved risk assessment.

How to cite: Zuccarello, F., Masafu, C., Kerschner, B., Kulkarni, S., and Taylor, L.: Recent European floods from a (re)insurance market perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9425, 2025.

EGU25-9751 | ECS | Orals | HS7.5

Thunderstorm in Taiwan and Its Impact on Railway 

Chi-June Jung, Ben Jong-Dao Jou, Ko Pak Tin Boaz, Yi-Hsi Lee, and Kai-Shiang Yang

Severe convective storms frequently occur in Taiwan, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning. These events significantly disrupt critical infrastructure, including railways, by causing operational delays and damage to facilities. The proximity of the railway network to high-frequency thunderstorm zones highlights the need for tailored meteorological applications to mitigate these risks. 

Heavy rainfall and wind gust are key characteristics of severe convective storms. Analysis of a thunderstorm event in Taipei Basin demonstrates that merged convective cells can produce extreme rain rates exceeding 60 mm in 20 minutes, which is closely tied to urban flash flood occurrences. Microbursts, identified through radar signatures like descending precipitation cores and strong near-ground divergent outflows, further exacerbate railway hazards, generating wind gusts exceeding 10 m/s. 

To address these challenges, the Central Weather Administration issues real-time severe thunderstorm warnings based on radar observations, such as radar echoes > 55 dBZ and 60-minute rainfall > 40 mm. Since 2024, National Taiwan University has collaborated with Taiwan Railway Company to implement targeted warnings. These alerts, distributed via the LINE app, provide real-time updates on affected railway sections, improving disaster preparedness and operational resilience. 

Between April and October 2024, alerts were issued for various disasters, including flooding, fallen trees, and landslides. However, the actual occurrence rate was only 2%. To reduce false alarms and enhance the accuracy of warnings, radar-based quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) thresholds are being introduced. These efforts aim to strengthen railway safety and minimize disruptions caused by severe weather events.

How to cite: Jung, C.-J., Jou, B. J.-D., Boaz, K. P. T., Lee, Y.-H., and Yang, K.-S.: Thunderstorm in Taiwan and Its Impact on Railway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9751, 2025.

EGU25-10315 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Atmospheric drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Indian sub-continent 

Nandana Dilip K and Vimal Mishra

Extreme precipitation events in the Indian sub-continent have profound socio-economic and environmental impacts, particularly due to their role in triggering flash floods. These events are driven by a combination of atmospheric conditions, moisture sources and pathways, geomorphology, and hydrometeorology. However, while the hydrometeorological and geomorphological factors have been extensively studied, the role of atmospheric drivers and moisture pathways remains underexplored, creating a significant research gap. To address this gap, we analyzed the atmospheric processes and moisture sources contributing to widespread extreme hourly precipitation events across the Indian subcontinent during the period 1981–2020. Using a combination of reanalysis datasets, event detection algorithms, and moisture tracking methods, we identified the spatial and temporal distribution of these events. We find the Himalayas as a major hotspot, with most extreme events occurring during the Indian summer monsoon season. We find recycled moisture from land surfaces is the dominant source of moisture in the Himalayas, whereas moisture from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal primarily drives precipitation extremes in peninsular India. Our findings highlight the interconnected dynamics between the atmosphere, land, and ocean in driving extreme precipitation. The study underscores the importance of incorporating atmospheric drivers into disaster management frameworks and early warning systems to enhance preparedness and mitigate impacts effectively.

How to cite: Dilip K, N. and Mishra, V.: Atmospheric drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Indian sub-continent, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10315, 2025.

EGU25-10418 | Orals | HS7.5

  Are rainfall warning levels ready for climate change? A case study from Catalonia, Spain 

Erika Meléndez-Landaverde, Daniel Sempere-Torres, Víctor González, and Carles Corral

Extreme precipitation events, characterised by significant rainfall amounts over short periods, are projected to intensify and occur more frequently under the influence of climate change. These projected changes, combined with rapid urbanisation, will likely lead to more frequent and extreme pluvial flood events (urban and flash floods) due to the precipitation intensity rapidly and easily exceeding the current capacity of natural and artificial drainage systems. Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on extreme precipitation is therefore critical for identifying and designing sustainable adaptation and mitigation actions for at-risk communities and their citizens.

As part of the EU Horizon 2020 project CLIMAAX, an extreme precipitation workflow has been developed to provide step-by-step guidelines for communities and regions to identify and assess how their critical rainfall thresholds could shift in both magnitude and frequency under climate projections. In this work, a critical rainfall threshold is defined as the precipitation intensity necessary to trigger unsustainable or unacceptable impacts in a specific location or area. These thresholds are commonly used in designing drainage systems and flood protection infrastructure and serve as decision support values for triggering rainfall warnings or advisory information during emergencies. By employing the workflow to assess how these critical rainfall thresholds are projected to change, communities can make informed decisions about the most appropriate long-term adaptation measures to enhance their overall climate resilience. Moreover, the flexible workflow structure facilitates the integration of diverse hazard, exposure and vulnerability datasets at multiple scales (e.g., CORDEX, WorldPoP), making it adaptable to specific regional needs.

The extreme precipitation workflow has been applied in the Catalonia Region, Spain, to evaluate how the current rainfall thresholds used for triggering rainfall warnings for Dangerous Meteorological Situations will vary due to the influence of climate change. Model combinations of EURO-CORDEX climate projections at a 12km spatial resolution for the different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were employed for assessing future rainfall projections. Considering the increased number of extreme precipitation events in the region over the past years, the impacts associated with these and the number of triggered warnings per year, the results are expected to provide authorities with valuable insights into the frequency and magnitude shifts of these extreme events in the region.

How to cite: Meléndez-Landaverde, E., Sempere-Torres, D., González, V., and Corral, C.:   Are rainfall warning levels ready for climate change? A case study from Catalonia, Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10418, 2025.

Disaster monitoring and early warning systems are typically associated with the detection of extreme events capable of causing significant social impacts, particularly in cases of rain-related disasters such as floods, flash floods, and landslides. However, this traditional approach—focused solely on assessing the likelihood of threats materializing—proves insufficient when monitoring areas with high heterogeneity in terms of exposure and population vulnerability. In such cases, less extreme but more frequent events can result in recurring impacts that, when analyzed historically, surpass those of extreme events. In Brazil, approximately 90% of landslide occurrences are associated with low magnitude impact. Low magnitude events cannot be neglected because even though they cause low-severity losses, their high-frequency and cumulative effect adds up to a large number of losses and affected people. Understanding the impacts of low magnitude events can aid in defining risk scenarios as part of the potential impact dimension within a risk matrix. Thus, this study uses a database developed by the Brazilian National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) to better understand these relationships. Furthermore, it proposes an approach to develop a potential impact indicator based on retrospective risk analyses, linking average impact levels over time to extreme rainfall frequency data. The study focuses on Santa Catarina state (Southern Brazil), analyzing impact data from 80 municipalities between 2016 and 2024. During this time period, the monitored municipalities in the state reported 568 landslide/related impact events, affecting over 8,000 individuals. The analyzed data indicate 548 events with low magnitude impacts, which can be classified as extensive risk events (high frequency, low severity), typically characterized by situations that had 1 to 2 small landslides. On the other hand, 18 events were identified with medium magnitude impacts, where 3 to 10 landslides were generally recorded. Only 2 large magnitude events (>10 landslides) were recorded in the analyzed period, which can be classified as intensive risk events (low frequency, high severity). The results reveal distinct municipal profiles, highlighting two key scenarios: i) areas where the combination of frequent heavy rainfall events and a high potential impact indicator result in very high climate risk and, ii) contrasting situations where significant impact occur despite of low frequency of heavy rainfall suggesting a bigger weight of social vulnerability and exposure of human systems. In addition to providing critical insights for enhancing CEMADEN's decision-making in disaster early warning issuance, the study offers valuable information for prioritizing risk reduction measures and climate adaptation actions.

How to cite: Bernardes, T. and Camarinha, P.: Comparative analysis between impact data related to landslides and extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil: a proposal to establish potential impact indicators, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11982, 2025.

EGU25-14504 | Orals | HS7.5

Global Insight into Extreme Events and Land Subsidence: Understanding Drivers, Interplay, and Impacts 

Laurie Huning, Charlotte Love, Hassan Anjileli, Farshid Vahedifard, Yunxia Zhao, Pedro Chaffe, Kevin Cooper, Aneseh Alborzi, Edward Pleitez, Alexandre Martinez, Samaneh Ashraf, Iman Mallakpour, Hamed Moftakhari, and Amir AghaKouchak

Land subsidence (LS) or the relative lowering of the Earth’s ground surface is a critical concern that warrants global attention. LS is a chronic hazard in many areas that has adverse effects on built infrastructure, people, and natural systems. As global atmospheric temperatures rise and the water cycle intensifies, climatic extreme events (e.g., droughts, wildfires, heatwaves, floods) are expected to become more severe. We must therefore better understand the impact of interactions and feedbacks among extreme events, LS, human activities, and their effects around the world. Notably, our global study highlights that LS can alter the potential impacts of extreme events, and extreme events can contribute to LS. We also identify a variety of LS drivers, both natural and anthropogenic (e.g., natural compaction, urbanization, extraction of fossil fuels and groundwater from the subsurface), and corresponding LS rates throughout a variety of climatic zones and environments from the coastline inland. This study presents analysis of anthropogenic-related activities and natural processes that cause LS, but can also enhance climate change as greenhouse gases are released from the soil into the atmosphere (e.g., via permafrost thawing or peatland and wetland removal). Through our synthesis of process-driven relationships and examples, we underscore the interplay of climatic extremes and LS that damages infrastructure and enhances the vulnerability of large populations to floods and other natural hazards. Our study provides guidance for future policies and adaptation and mitigation approaches that account for the critical connections between the land surface, environmental change, and extreme events.

How to cite: Huning, L., Love, C., Anjileli, H., Vahedifard, F., Zhao, Y., Chaffe, P., Cooper, K., Alborzi, A., Pleitez, E., Martinez, A., Ashraf, S., Mallakpour, I., Moftakhari, H., and AghaKouchak, A.: Global Insight into Extreme Events and Land Subsidence: Understanding Drivers, Interplay, and Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14504, 2025.

EGU25-14685 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Role of moisture transport in extreme flood events in the Brahmaputra basin 

Gayathri Vangala and Vimal Mishra

The Brahmaputra River basin, a complex hydrological system in South Asia, is among the most flood-prone regions in the world. It frequently experiences severe and devastating flood events. The floods are closely linked to the region’s complex atmospheric moisture dynamics, which govern the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation. However, the mechanisms driving extreme precipitation events, especially their connection to large-scale moisture transport, remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) in the initiation and intensification of extreme flood events within the Brahmaputra basin.  We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of IVT and their correlation with changes in patterns of precipitation. Our findings indicate that IVT, characterized by strong moisture flux convergence, is closely associated with significant increases in rainfall intensity, particularly during the summer monsoon season. The improved understanding of the physical mechanisms behind precipitation intensification can significantly improve forecasting and early warning systems for extreme flood events. These advancements are crucial for mitigating the impacts of extreme floods and enhancing the actionable strategies in one of the world’s most vulnerable regions.

How to cite: Vangala, G. and Mishra, V.: Role of moisture transport in extreme flood events in the Brahmaputra basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14685, 2025.

Maharashtra is India’s second-largest state in population and third-largest in area. It faces escalating environmental challenges from diverse hydroclimatic extremes, including droughts, floods, and cyclones. IPCC reports underscore the need for a comprehensive understanding of socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) to address the inequality and differential impacts of these hazards within a robust risk assessment framework. Several national and regional vulnerability assessments have been conducted in India and Maharashtra. These studies lack a finer-resolution assessment of socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV), limiting the understanding of localised variations. They also fall short of incorporating a broad range of SEV indicators, which hinders comprehensive vulnerability analysis. The major drivers contributing to vulnerability need to be identified.

The current study advances local adaptation planning by thoroughly evaluating socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) at Maharashtra's finest resolution of sub-district (talukas/tehsils) level based on the availability of the demographic data. The study utilised composite indicators, which were procured and derived from the latest available Census of India (CoI, 2011) data. This method offers a thorough grasp of susceptibility patterns by concentrating on the finest possible spatial resolution based on the limited availability of the resource for socioeconomic indicator information. The subjectivity constraints of weighing these socioeconomic indicators have been addressed using the non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) optimisation technique. The study also utilised variance-based factor analysis to identify the major contributing drivers of the SEV for Maharashtra. Additionally, a localised cluster-level SEV analysis is also performed based on multiple administrative divisions to identify the local-level significant indicators. Applying this methodology to 357 sub-districts of Maharashtra reveals a concentration of highly vulnerable sub-districts in the Central and Eastern Vidarbha Zone, moderately vulnerable districts in the Central Maharashtra Plateau Zone, and less vulnerable districts in the North Konkan Coastal. The factor analysis results also highlight agricultural labourers, marginal working populations, and marginal female working populations as the most critical drivers influencing vulnerability for the entire Maharashtra State.

This proposed framework is generic and comprehensive and can be applied to any other state or spatial scale. The results of this study can assist policymakers and stakeholders in identifying vulnerable hotspots and developing proper social and economic policies to better understand and improve the socioeconomic situations of Maharashtra at the sub-district scale.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Principal component analysis, Socioeconomic indicators, Sub-district level, Vulnerability analysis.

How to cite: Dev, I., Chakraborty, A., and Karmakar, S.: A Comprehensive Socioeconomic Vulnerability Analysis Using Robust DEA Technique at the Finest Resolution of Sub-District Scale in Entire Maharashtra State of India: Identifying Significant Vulnerability Drivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14777, 2025.

EGU25-14945 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Multi-day extreme precipitation caused major floods in India during summer monsoon of 2024 

Dipesh Singh Chuphal, Iqura Malik, Rajesh Singh, Gayathri Vangala, M Niranjan Naik, Urmin Vegad, Nandana Dilip K, Parthsarathi Mukhopadhyay, J Parvathy Selvan, Vivek Kapadia, and Vimal Mishra

Climate change has increased the risk of extreme precipitation and flooding in India. During the 2024 summer monsoon season, three major extreme precipitation events occurred across the western, southern, and northern states of India, leading to widespread flooding in these regions. We examine the causes and impacts of extreme precipitation and flood events using a combination of observational data, reanalysis datasets, and hydrological models. In all the three regions, extreme rainfall occurred immediately after multiday continuous precipitation, resulting in catastrophic flooding. The 3-day extreme precipitation that caused flooding in the three regions had return periods of more than 75 years, 100 years, and 200 years, respectively. The primary moisture source for the Gujarat floods (western India) was the Arabian Sea, while the floods in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana (southern India) were driven by dual moisture advection from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. For the floods in northern India, the dominant moisture sources were recycled land moisture and southwest moisture transport from the Arabian Sea. These moisture inflows, combined with favorable atmospheric conditions and pre-existing saturated soils, resulted in severe flooding across all regions. Our findings underscore the escalating challenge of managing such extreme events as their frequency and intensity rise with global warming.

How to cite: Singh Chuphal, D., Malik, I., Singh, R., Vangala, G., Naik, M. N., Vegad, U., Dilip K, N., Mukhopadhyay, P., Selvan, J. P., Kapadia, V., and Mishra, V.: Multi-day extreme precipitation caused major floods in India during summer monsoon of 2024, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14945, 2025.

EGU25-16503 | Orals | HS7.5

Living with floods: strengthening adaptation and preparedness through better risk communication 

Serena Ceola, Irene Palazzoli, Chiara Binelli, Chiara Puglisi, and Raya Muttarak

Europe has been experiencing catastrophic floods. On October 19, 2024, the city of Bologna located in the Emilia-Romagna region, in central-northern Italy received 180 mm of rainfall – its average for September and October – within just 24 hours, with an intensity typical of summer thunderstorms. The region has yet barely recovered from severe flooding and landslides caused by the Storm Boris in September 18-19, 2024. These recent events followed the worst Emilia-Romagna's flood in a century, in May 2023, which resulted in 17 deaths and an estimated 8.5 billion euro in damages cost. With severe storms and their accompanying devastating floods projected to become more frequent and intense, and with an increasing concentration of people living close to rivers, Europe must urgently scale up its adaptation efforts. Understanding the preparedness of flood-prone regions and their populations is therefore crucial. 

A recent survey among 1,795 residents of Emilia-Romagna conducted in July 2024 (after the devastating flood events in May 2023) investigated their flood risk awareness and preparedness to face such crises. The survey reveals that most respondents were unprepared for flood event and that providing accessible information on local flood risk can play a vital role in bolstering personal adaptation measures. Respondents reported that providing educational resources on flood preparedness and the provision of guidance on flood prevention and management are also fundamental to effective flood responses and enhanced citizens’ resilience. Effective risk communication can also generate a spillover effect, fostering broader climate awareness and a commitment to mitigation. We therefore envisage that adaptation initiatives must prioritize citizen involvement and access to reliable flood risk information. Engaging citizens as active participants in adaptation planning ensures that strategies align with local needs and are more likely to gain public support. In this way Europe can create more resilient communities and stimulate meaningful climate action. 

 

How to cite: Ceola, S., Palazzoli, I., Binelli, C., Puglisi, C., and Muttarak, R.: Living with floods: strengthening adaptation and preparedness through better risk communication, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16503, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16503, 2025.

EGU25-17944 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Socio-economic vulnerability assessment at building scale: A case study in Youngsan watershed, South Korea 

Hung Vu Quoc, Dongkyun Kim, and Chi Vuong Tai

Despite the growing efforts in quantifying disaster vulnerability, its assessment at the building scale remains a challenge. In this study, we aim to quantify the socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) for every building by combining its housing price data with SEVI values at sub-district level. The methodology consists of three main steps. First, the latest social and economic data from Gwangju and Jeollanam provinces of Youngsan watershed were collected at sub-district and district levels. These data served as inputs for the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm to compute SEVI at sub-districts level. Second, housing price data were gathered for as many residential buildings as possible and combined with the SEVI values of their associated sub-districts. This combination was conducted with an assumption that households with more expensive housing are less vulnerable to natural disasters. Finally, a geocoding technique was adopted to tranform physical addresses into geospatial locations, enabling the assignment of vulnerability values into building polygons for further analysis and visualization. The outcome of this study is a map detailing the vulnerability levels of individual buildings. The main findings reveal that (1) the Southeastern part of Youngsan watershed tends to be more vulnerable to disaster, with sub-districts exhibiting high SEVI levels mostly located near the Youngsan River; (2) sub-districts with the highest number of highly vulnerable buildings tend to have only medium SEVI levels. By integrating these insights into disaster risk mitigation efforts, policymakers can develop more detailed and effective strategies for both short and long term, focusing on each building individually.

 

Acknowledgement

This study was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis Program (or Project), funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

How to cite: Vu Quoc, H., Kim, D., and Vuong Tai, C.: Socio-economic vulnerability assessment at building scale: A case study in Youngsan watershed, South Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17944, 2025.

This study uses catchment-level statistical characterization of reanalysis and precipitation datasets to create a typology of the evolution atmospheric conditions associated with hydrologic dam incidents in the eastern United States. Extreme precipitation elevates the risk of dam overtopping, which is the main cause of a third of US dam failures. As the intensity of precipitation is predicted to increase in future climates, understanding the evolution of precipitation-generating features within the atmospheric system, alongside the hydrologic conditions leading up to the failure, is a crucial initial step in properly characterizing and predicting the risk of dam failures during a range of weather events.

This analysis divides the US eastern seaboard into four regions to examine the meteorological events within a 30-day period prior to a dam’s hydrologic incident. Initial analysis of the northeast sub-region found that although quasi-stationary fronts (frontal) or tropical cyclones (TC) present their own risk, compound events combining the two were most immediately associated with numerous dam failures over a broad region. However, catchment-level precipitation analysis further highlighted that the basins that had failures during these TC/frontal events also had numerous smaller precipitation events in the timeframe leading up to the incident. This longer tendency towards higher precipitation is associated with persistent large-scale patterns within the 14 days prior to the event. Ongoing analysis of the other sub-regions within the study area will further characterize variations across the region, as well as provide deeper insight into processes that determine how precipitation is distributed within the catchment.  

How to cite: Hence, D. and Orok, H.: Characterizing the Atmospheric Conditions Leading to Dam Overtopping in the Eastern United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18032, 2025.

EGU25-18771 | Posters on site | HS7.5

Comparative Analysis of Flash Flood Vulnerability and Resilience through Multidimensional Indices 

Jose María Bodoque, Estefania Aroca, and Juan Antonio García

This research examines the relationships between vulnerability and resilience concerning flash flood risk in the Castilla y León region (Spain). The study compares vulnerability and resilience indices and investigates the relationships between their elements and flash flood risk variables. It discusses the necessity of enhancing vulnerability and resilience evaluations by integrating diverse aspects, encompassing social, economic, ecosystem, physical, institutional, and cultural dimensions. The methodology incorporates statistical and spatial approaches, such as Spearman correlation, bivariate choropleth maps, and regression models. The study reveals that vulnerability and resilience are related but represent distinct constructs. Despite a weak correlation between the vulnerability and resilience indices (r = 0.06), significant correlations exist among various elements within these indices. This underscores the need for a multidimensional approach that combines theoretical frameworks with practical implementation, providing insights for policy makers and guiding future research efforts. For example, the resilience index and the vulnerability index's exposure component are strongly correlated (r = 0.40). The spatial relationships are more evident between the vulnerability and resilience indices, with a local R2 of 0.74 between the resilience index and the different dimensions within the vulnerability index. The study also finds significant correlations between specific vulnerability elements and flash flood risk variables, particularly in the exposure component (r = 0.59 for the population at risk) and the institutional dimension (r = -0.48 for the total flood indemnities provided by the insurance company). Notably, the vulnerability and resilience indices show a strong spatial relationship with critical infrastructure at risk, with a local R2 of 0.85.  This research highlights the need for more research to improve vulnerability and resilience assessments and tailor them to specific local contexts. This underscores the need for a multidimensional approach that combines theoretical frameworks with practical implementation, providing insights for policy makers and guiding future research efforts. 

How to cite: Bodoque, J. M., Aroca, E., and García, J. A.: Comparative Analysis of Flash Flood Vulnerability and Resilience through Multidimensional Indices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18771, 2025.

EGU25-19293 | Posters on site | HS7.5

Large scale atmospheric cross-peril stochastic catastrophe models 

Martin Kadlec and Anežka Švandová

Impact Forecasting, a catastrophe model development branch of Aon, develops catastrophe models for various countries and perils, including floods, windstorms, earthquakes, wildfires, hurricanes, and typhoons. These models are crucial for the insurance and reinsurance industry to estimate losses in terms of severity and frequency.

To address the increasing demand for evaluating losses across multiple countries and perils, Impact Forecasting has started using large ensembles of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). These models serve as a common forcing input for catastrophe models related to atmospheric perils such as flooding (fluvial, pluvial, and coastal), summer storms, windstorms, and wildfires.

The use of GCM/RCM as common forcing input offers two main advantages:

  • Spatial Consistency: The data are spatially consistent at a global or continental scale, which helps in addressing the issue of cross-country correlations.
  • Variability: The large number of available ensembles provides sufficient variability to build a representative stochastic catalogue of potential catastrophes.

We will present several examples of this approach (Pan-European flood model, the Canadian flood and wildfire models), where common GCM/RCM inputs are used to provide a consistent view of losses across large regions and various perils. We will also show how we adress the issue of low resolution of GCM/RCM models using machine learning.

How to cite: Kadlec, M. and Švandová, A.: Large scale atmospheric cross-peril stochastic catastrophe models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19293, 2025.

EGU25-19347 | Orals | HS7.5

 Compound, Cascading, and Multihazard Perils: Lessons Learnt from Hurricanes Helene and Milton 

Jose Luis Salinas Illarena, Sacha Khoury, Jessica Williams, and Sarah Hartley

The 2024 hurricane season presented unique challenges in hydrological and risk modeling with the consecutive landfalls of Hurricanes Helene and Milton in Florida, USA. This study investigates the compounded, cascading, and multihazard perils associated with these events, focusing on the interplay of antecedent conditions, vulnerability, and exposure.

One of the factors considered was the influence of antecedent soil moisture and river storages on hydrological modeling. Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in early September, saturated the soil and filled river systems to near capacity. These conditions significantly altered the hydrological response to Hurricane Milton, which struck just two weeks later. Hydrological models had to account for the already saturated soils and high river levels, which exacerbated flooding and runoff, leading locally to more extensive inundation than would have been predicted for Hurricane Milton in isolation.

Another point of focus is the impact on vulnerability, particularly the presence of debris from Hurricane Helene affecting the region's resilience. Debris obstructed drainage systems, increased the potential for secondary flooding, and complicated emergency response efforts. Additionally, the weakened infrastructure and partially damaged buildings from the first hurricane heightened the susceptibility of the population to the subsequent event, resulting in higher overall damage and more prolonged recovery periods.

Finally, the study examines the effect on exposure, including the "build-back-better" phenomenon observed in even previously to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. While some structures were rebuilt to higher standards, providing increased resilience against Hurricane Milton, many areas remained in a state of recovery, with temporary shelters and makeshift repairs that were less able to withstand the impact of the second hurricane. This mixed state of exposure created a complex landscape for risk assessment and emergency planning.

Overall, the lessons learnt from Hurricanes Helene and Milton underscore the importance of incorporating antecedent conditions into hydrological models, considering the cumulative impacts on vulnerability, and recognizing the dynamic nature of exposure in multihazard scenarios. These insights are crucial for improving predictive models and enhancing resilience strategies in regions prone to sequential natural disasters.

How to cite: Salinas Illarena, J. L., Khoury, S., Williams, J., and Hartley, S.:  Compound, Cascading, and Multihazard Perils: Lessons Learnt from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19347, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19347, 2025.

EGU25-19638 | ECS | Orals | HS7.5

Quantitative fluvial and coastal flood risk assessments for European coastal cities considering various climate scenarios and ecosystem-based approaches for hazard mitigation 

Rui Figueiredo, Raymundo Rangel-Parra, Gianbattista Bussi, Paola Ceresa, Rossella Mocali, Michele Bendoni, Carlo Brandini, Luís Campos Rodrigues, Mar Riera-Spiegelhalder, Juan Iglesias, Jokin Etxebarria, and Sara Soloaga

Coastal cities, due to their geographic location, are particularly exposed to hydro-meteorological and climate-related natural hazards. The EU-funded Horizon 2020 project SCORE (Smart Control of the Climate Resilience in European Coastal Cities), within its various activities, aims to provide a better understanding of how to mitigate and manage the effects of extreme events, particularly floods, in European coastal cities. Achieving this objective requires adequate knowledge about the probabilities and potential consequences of flood events based on a probabilistic risk assessment framework encompassing models of flood hazard for different climate scenarios, exposed elements, and vulnerability.

In this context, the present work describes the methodology and presents the results of quantitative risk assessments developed for fluvial and coastal flooding for three of SCORE’s coastal city living labs (CCLLs): Massa (Italy), Oarsoaldea (Spain) and Vilanova i la Geltrú (Spain). The risk assessments cover four types of exposed elements, i.e., population, buildings, roads, and railways, and a number of flood scenarios, both in terms of different climate conditions and considering the absence or presence of ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) for the mitigation of fluvial flood hazard. This allows understanding both the impact that climate change is expected to have on flood risk in these CCLLs, and the influence that specific EBAs can have in reducing fluvial flood risk from a baseline to an improved infrastructural condition (i.e., residual risk).

The results of the assessments provide invaluable information to support flood risk management activities, such as gridded maps of losses for each hazard scenario and type of exposed element, maps of estimated average annual losses (AAL), and aggregate loss metrics at urban scale. In addition, they serve as input for subsequent tasks of the SCORE project, such as the development of cost-benefit analyses of specific EBA solutions and the development of financial resilience strategies for the flood risk management of the three CCLLs.

How to cite: Figueiredo, R., Rangel-Parra, R., Bussi, G., Ceresa, P., Mocali, R., Bendoni, M., Brandini, C., Campos Rodrigues, L., Riera-Spiegelhalder, M., Iglesias, J., Etxebarria, J., and Soloaga, S.: Quantitative fluvial and coastal flood risk assessments for European coastal cities considering various climate scenarios and ecosystem-based approaches for hazard mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19638, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19638, 2025.

EGU25-20548 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.5

Investigating the impact of considering hazard preconditions in scenario-based risk estimation 

Amelie Hoffmann and Daniel Straub

Scenarios are commonly used in alpine hazard risk management. They can serve different purposes such as design of structures and mitigation measures, risk analysis for the prioritization of measures and the allocation of resources, and in preparing for the unexpected. In scenario-based quantitative risk analysis, few scenarios are used to obtain an estimate of risk, i.e., the annual expected losses, by approximating the loss exceedance curve. The scenarios are frequently selected from a range of plausible hazard intensities, such as discharges for hydrologic hazards or volumes for gravitational hazards and evaluated in terms of their expected consequences.

In the absence of long event records and lack of comprehensive data collection (e.g., from measurement stations or field investigations), as is often the case in alpine catchments, it can be difficult to assign occurrence probabilities to the specified hazard intensities. The recurrence of the scenarios (and thereby the expected consequences) is frequently equated with the recurrence of meteorological trigger conditions, thereby neglecting the effects of necessary preconditions for hazards to occur. In turn, to consider preconditions as additional parameters in evaluating the recurrence of expected consequences, it is required to adapt the development of the loss exceedance curve. For that purpose, we derive the unconditional probability distribution of the expected consequences from the distributions of damages conditional on the preconditions.

Using the example of an alpine catchment, we illustrate how considering preconditions invalidate the assumption of equating the recurrence frequency of the triggering conditions with the recurrence frequency of the consequences. We investigate the impact of considering different preconditions on the risk estimates by modelling the physical response of the natural environment to these trigger conditions. The information about frequency and magnitude of hazard scenarios is combined with the probability of different preconditions to derive scenarios that are representative of consequences with given recurrence frequency, hence better reflect the overall risk.

How to cite: Hoffmann, A. and Straub, D.: Investigating the impact of considering hazard preconditions in scenario-based risk estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20548, 2025.

EGU25-1519 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

THALESruhr: An Intelligent Monitoring System for Urban Flooding in the Ruhr Metropolis 

Anika Hotzel and Christoph Mudersbach

The THALESruhr project aims to transfer scientific information in the field of sustainability into practice and to transform the Ruhr metropolitan region in Germany into a sustainable and green industrial region. This subproject of THALESruhr tries to promote resilience to climate-related extreme weather events, in particular urban flooding. The intensity and frequency of heavy rain and flash flood events have increased significantly in recent times, and this trend is expected to continue to intensify as climate change progresses (IPCC, 2023). This has highlighted the need to take action to strengthen resilience against such events.

The approach presented here combines concepts of artificial intelligence and innovative sensor technology with the objective of developing an intelligent monitoring system for traffic areas at risk of flooding in Bochum, Germany. The primary component of the system is the development of a sensor network that employs autonomous radar sensors at strategically significant locations, including bridges, tunnels, and topographical low points, to measure water levels in traffic areas in real time. The data obtained is not only employed for immediate monitoring purposes but is also utilised for the validation of heavy rain hazard maps. Based on this data, in conjunction with additional weather forecast data and historical precipitation data, an early warning system is to be established in the long term. This system will utilise artificial intelligence approaches to inform the population of impending urban flooding resulting from heavy rainfall events at an early stage. The incorporation of real-time data into urban monitoring and warning systems enables early flood alerts, allowing the population to minimize risks. Emergency services can be promptly notified of flooded streets, saving time for rescue operations. This also helps bypass dangerous areas more quickly or approach them in a targeted way. Another goal is to adapt urban planning and development to account for extreme events, such as heavy rainfall and flooding.

The project's measures are therefore not only aimed at optimising the monitoring and prevention of flooding in the short term, but also at promoting sustainable and resilient urban development in the Ruhr metropolis in the long term.

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, pp. 35-115, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.

How to cite: Hotzel, A. and Mudersbach, C.: THALESruhr: An Intelligent Monitoring System for Urban Flooding in the Ruhr Metropolis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1519, 2025.

Urban areas significantly influence rainfall patterns, often intensifying rainfall downwind of cities. Depending on various factors, cities can suppress, deflect, split, or intensify incoming storms, with some studies even highlighting storm initiation due to urban heat and dynamics. The location and magnitude of these impacts are largely dependent on the city’s geographic setting, topography, and prevailing wind-flow regime. In India, urban areas have been associated with enhanced monsoon rainfall extremes, with recent research indicating that urban warming is more pronounced over developing tier-II cities than over established metropolitan centers. Limited studies in India have explored the influence of background flow regimes on the preferential locations of rainfall intensification. Against this backdrop, Bhubaneswar, a developing tier-II tropical city in eastern India, serves as an insightful case study.

Bhubaneswar lies approximately 40–50 km inland from the Bay of Bengal, with an average elevation of 45 m above sea level. The city’s terrain rises westward toward the Eastern Ghats and slopes downward eastward toward the ocean, creating a temperature gradient warmer on the western side and cooler on the eastern side due to proximity to the sea. The region receives nearly 80% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season (JJAS), with most heavy rainfall events driven by low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. 

This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate seasonal monsoon rainfall over Bhubaneswar under varying city-size scenarios. A total of 88 rainfall events were simulated, of which 47 cases exhibited increased rainfall due to urban expansion, while 41 cases showed a reduction. Initial findings indicate that drawing a definitive conclusion on whether urban expansion consistently amplifies or diminishes rainfall is challenging.

During the monsoon season, the region experiences winds from all directions except the north, with southwesterlies being the most dominant. A detailed classification of events based on the prevailing wind regimes provided critical insights. The analysis revealed significant rainfall enhancement over the city and its downwind areas under easterly wind conditions, often associated with cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal. Conversely, westerly winds were found to reduce downwind rainfall. Notably, rainfall enhancement predominantly occurred on the right side of the prevailing wind direction in the case of westerlies.

The study underscores the prominent role of urban location, topography, and prevailing winds in shaping the magnitude and spatial distribution of urbanization-driven rainfall changes during the monsoon. Identifying the preferential location of rainfall enhancement during different wind conditions is crucial for flood mapping and mitigation.

How to cite: Gopinath, N. and Velu, V.: The Interplay between the Location of the City and the Background Winds in Modifying the Rainfall Patterns over an Eastern Indian Tropical City, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2838, 2025.

EGU25-3084 | ECS | Orals | HS7.6

Have you ever seen the rain? Observing a record summer cloudburst with multiple radars and opportunistic sensors 

Louise Petersson Wårdh, Hasan Hosseini, Remco van de Beek, Jafet C.M. Andersson, Hossein Hashemi, and Jonas Olsson

National-scale precipitation observations in Sweden have traditionally relied on a combination of weather stations and C-band weather radar networks. These observations provide good spatiotemporal coverage and accurate quantification of most stratiform precipitation events across large areas. In the urban context, however, their resolution may be insufficient to capture critical rainfall variations. This limitation is particularly evident for convective rainfall, which is often highly localized (e.g., cloudbursts), and capable of causing severe damage to infrastructure. In light of this, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is exploring complementary ways to monitor rainfall in urban environments.

This study evaluates data from an X-band weather radar (XWR), Commercial Microwave Links (CML), and Private Weather Stations (PWS) to observe a cloudburst event that hit the Bjärehalvön peninsula in in southwestern Sweden in August 2022. The observations are bench-marked with the official monitoring network: SMHI’s weather stations and a C-band radar composite. A maximum volume of 75 mm in 1 hour was reported by a weather station operated by Båstad municipality. This station showed good agreement with long-term observations (2 years) from the nearest SMHI gauge (9 km away) and matched well with the XWR’s measurements of the event. High-resolution (sub-km and 1-minute) XWR data were used to evaluate precipitation variations along a 4.5 km long CML reach, suggesting new potential for correction of CML observations. Additionally, we propose methods for pre-processing of CML and PWS data to ensure consistent precipitation estimates and facilitate cross-referencing with the other sensors.

The results suggest that complementary sensors can add important data on rainfall intensity and volume, enhancing SMHI’s ability to monitor localized heavy rainfall events. However, the opportunistic sensors (CML and PWS) appear to have reached a maximum detectable intensity of rainfall during the event, which likely caused an underestimation of the total volume. Further, the findings highlight the challenge of estimating return periods of convective storms, as the return period varies significantly depending on which sensor that is chosen as the ground truth for the event.

How to cite: Petersson Wårdh, L., Hosseini, H., van de Beek, R., Andersson, J. C. M., Hashemi, H., and Olsson, J.: Have you ever seen the rain? Observing a record summer cloudburst with multiple radars and opportunistic sensors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3084, 2025.

As climate change has a profound impact on the hydrological cycle, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events have increased significantly, and the distribution of rainfall in time and space has shown significant uneven characteristics. Therefore, rainfall in the catchment area is of vital importance to hydrological research and disaster prevention. Catchment-average rainfall is widely used in hydrological processes, especially in the issue of rainfall-runoff. This study aims to use the maximum rainfall over a catchment area to estimate the average rainfall in the catchment area.

This study first gridded the catchment and then used the ordinary Kriging method and the rainfall of the rain gauges in the catchment to estimate the rainfall in each grid. The rainfall of the grids are used to estimate the average and maximum rainfall over the catchment area. In addition, this study used the concept of probability and the maximum entropy principle to deduce that there is a strong correlation between maximum and average rainfalls and used data from the Xindian River in the north Taiwan to evaluate the feasibility of the model. The results show that the relationship between the maximum rainfall and the average rainfall in the catchment is a linear relationship passing through the origin. That is, the ratio of the average rainfall to the maximum rainfall in the catchment area is a constant that is not affected by time and space. Therefore, the relationship between the maximum rainfall and the average rainfall in the catchment area developed by this study can be used to quickly estimate the real time average rainfall of a catchment.

How to cite: Chen, Y.-C. and Chou, Y.-H.: Estimation of mean rainfall over a catchment area using the relationship of maximum and mean rainfalls, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4009, 2025.

Rainfall field reconstruction from sparse gauge observations has always been a challenge in hydrometeorology. Traditional geostatistical approaches, such as Ordinary Kriging (OK) and associated geostatistical-based data merging methods, have been widely used (Matheron., 1963; Oliver and Webster, 1990; Sideris et al, 2014). Despite being generally promising, these models often struggle to maintain spatial-temporal consistency while preserving fine-scale features due to the limitation of their underlying statistical assumptions.

Recent research works have aimed to address this limitation with machine learning (Appleby et al., 2020; Harris et al., 2022; Price and Rasp., 2022; Nag et al., 2023; Hsu et al., 2024; Chen et al. 2024). For example, Hsu et al. (2024) introduced a deep-learning approach for downscaling precipitation data, thereby enhancing the representation of fine-scale structures. In contrast, Chen et al. (2024) combined spatial basis function modeling with neural network-driven feature learning to achieve both high accuracy and interpretability in geospatial interpolation.

However, to our knowledge, existing methods have not fully addressed the temporal coherence in precipitation field reconstruction, specifically in maintaining spatial-temporal patterns across consecutive frames. Moverover, many of these methods assume a simple averaging relationship between point measurements and areal precipitation, overlooking the complex scale discrepancy between rain gauge observations and their representative areal means. These deficiencies tend to result in spatially overly smooth fields or low correlation between consecutive frames.

To overcome these limitations, we present a reconstruction method that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Specifically, it incorporates three key innovations: (1) a multi-scale convolution kernel for capturing diverse spatial dependencies, (2) a Fast Fourier Convolution implementation for high-frequency signal preservation, and (3) an adaptive noise injection mechanism that enriches textural details based on local complexity measures.

To evaluate the proposed method, an experiment, using high-resolution radar images over a 64x64 gridded domain, is designed. Within each 10x10 sub-domain, a known point is arbitrarily chosen, and data values at these point locations remain known across the entire event. Our task is to use these known points to predict (or to interpolate) the rest of the image at each time step. The training dataset comprises 1-km Nimrod precipitation fields at 5-min intervals, covering a 64 × 64 km² domain centered on Birmingham city in the UK, spanning from 2016 to 2020. The validation dataset consists of 20 selected storm events between 2021 and 2022. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used to assess the prediction result. In addition, the Radial Averaged Power Spectral Density (RAPSD) is employed to compare the power spectral density across different frequency ranges, allowing us to assess the reconstruction quality of fine-scale details and overall coarse-scale features in the images.

Preliminary results indicate substantial improvements over traditional Ordinary Kriging methods in both accuracy and computational efficiency; on average, the MAE decreased by 37%, the RMSE reduced by 22%. In addition, the RAPSD results demonstrate an improvement in capturing spatial details. These findings underscore the considerable potential of deep learning techniques for enhancing the spatial-temporal reconstruction of precipitation fields.

How to cite: Wang, B.-Z. and Wang, L.-P.: From points to images: A deep-learning enhanced spatial-temporal reconstruction of precipitation data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4537, 2025.

EGU25-5282 | ECS | Orals | HS7.6

Incorporating convective cell evolution into convective storm modelling 

Chien-Yu Tseng and Li-Pen Wang

Climate change is intensifying short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events in many regions worldwide, highlighting the need to improve rainfall modelling for such storms to support effective stormwater management. A recurring challenge is that many existing rainfall modelling tools fail to account for the evolution of convective cells, potentially leading to under- or over-estimates of rainfall extremes and their hydrological impacts.

To address this challenge, this study presents a spatial-temporal rainfall generator that explicitly incorporates convective cell evolution. In this approach, storm arrivals are modelled by a point process, with storm cells represented by clusters of rainfall objects, of which each is characterised by specific intensity and geometric properties. Whereas most existing generators assume constant cell properties throughout a storm, the properties of our convective cells evolve with time –a more realistic representation of cell lifecycles exhibiting growth and decay. This design also naturally captures the birth of new cells and the dissipation of existing ones during storm events.

The parameters of the generator are derived from an analysis of 167 convective storm events observed in the Birmingham area (UK) between 2005 and 2017. These events were identified and tracked using the enhanced TITAN storm tracking algorithm (Munoz et al., 2018), which extracts convective cell paths and their key properties (e.g., rainfall intensity, spatial extent, storm and cell duration, and movement). The resulting dataset was then used to calibrate a copula-based convective cell lifecycle generator (Tseng et al., 2025), serving as the core mechanism for introducing cell evolution into the rainfall modelling framework.

Preliminary results suggest that our generator not only reproduces the observed standard statistics but also more effectively preserves rainfall extremes than existing generators that assume constant cell properties. In addition, by offering a more realistic representation of cell dynamics and improved spatial-temporal rainfall structures, our generator has the potential to yield more accurate hydrological responses.

How to cite: Tseng, C.-Y. and Wang, L.-P.: Incorporating convective cell evolution into convective storm modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5282, 2025.

EGU25-5942 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Generating realistic storms using a joint return period sampling of intense precipitation 

Tabea Cache, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler, Hannes Müller-Thomy, and Nadav Peleg

Planning flood-resilient infrastructures requires an accurate estimation of the flood hazard, which is commonly achieved by modelling the flood responses to synthetic extreme precipitation events known as design storms. Current methods for estimating design storms fail to account for observed joint return period dependencies across different durations within events. The common block-maxima approaches, for example, follow the entire intensity-duration-frequency curve throughout the event. To overcome the limitations of the current design storm approaches, we develop a method based on vine copula and a constrained micro-canonical cascade model to generate design storms that reproduce observed return period dependencies. Taking Zurich (Switzerland) as a case study, we analysed the dependencies between precipitation volumes over duration intervals ranging from 10-min to 6-h and found strong pairwise dependencies between return periods over different duration intervals, with a maximum Kendall’s τ rank correlation coefficient of 0.69. With our new approach, we find high variability in possible duration-frequency profiles, leading to an average reduction in total storm volume compared to common block-maxima approaches. For example, events with a 50-year return period over the 10-min duration interval have a total storm volume that is on average 56% lower than that of design storms generated using the block-maxima approach. Additionally, the variability in possible duration-frequency profiles indicates that multiple design storm events should ideally be used to ensure a robust flood risk assessment.

How to cite: Cache, T., Bevacqua, E., Zscheischler, J., Müller-Thomy, H., and Peleg, N.: Generating realistic storms using a joint return period sampling of intense precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5942, 2025.

EGU25-6380 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Impacts of Urbanization on Precipitation of Mega-cities in the Northern Hemisphere 

Yuxin Cai, Yuxuan Wu, Kaicun Wang, and Shushi Peng

Urbanization significantly alters land surface characteristics, thereby influencing precipitation patterns. However, whether urbanization leads to urban wet islands or dry islands remains controversial. Here, we assess the sensitivity of precipitation to urbanization, defined as the slope of the regression between precipitation and the proportion of impervious area at each site or grid within a city, for 290 mega-cities in China, 51 in Europe, and 108 in the United States, using in situ datasets and two satellite-based products (MSWEP and GPM). Our results show that 46–70% of Chinese, 39–78% of European, and 37–71% of US cities exhibit negative sensitivity, depending precipitation product used, which highlights the uncertainties in precipitation products. We further examine how urbanization influences the frequency and intensity of heavy and light rainfall events, and find that it tends to enhance heavy rainfall and reduce light rainfall. Consequently, the reduction in light rainfall predominantly drives the negative sensitivity of annual precipitation to urbanization. Our study reveals the complexity of urban precipitation dynamics, and underscores the need for high-resolution and accurate datasets to better quantify urbanization impacts on hydrological processes.

How to cite: Cai, Y., Wu, Y., Wang, K., and Peng, S.: Impacts of Urbanization on Precipitation of Mega-cities in the Northern Hemisphere, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6380, 2025.

This study investigates the seasonal variations in the relationship between particulate matter (PM) concentrations and rainwater quality in an urban area of South Korea. Rainwater samples (n = 216) were collected during summer (June to August 2020) and winter (December 2020 to February 2021) at Pukyong National University, Busan, and analyzed for pH and electrical conductivity (EC) in the field, and water-soluble ions (Na+, Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, NH4+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-) were determined using an Ion Chromatography (IC, HIC-ESP, Shimadzu, Japan) at the Integrated Analytical Center for Earth and Environmental Sciences of Pukyong National University. Atmospheric concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were obtained from the Automated Weather System (AWS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The results showed significant seasonal differences in PM concentrations and rainwater quality. In summer, daily average concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were relatively low (about 18 μg/m³ and 7 μg/m³) with higher rainwater EC (about 26 µS/cm) and moderate levels of cations (about 10 mg/L) and anions (8 mg/L). In contrast, winter showed increased PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (27 μg/m³ and 18 μg/m³), accompanied by lower EC (15.6 µS/cm) but higher cation (15 mg/L) and anion (12 mg/L) concentrations. Rainfall intensity was markedly higher in summer (3.01 mm/h) than in winter (0.63 mm/h), reflecting seasonal differences in pollutant washout processes. Correlation analysis revealed stronger relationships between PM concentrations and rainwater quality in summer, particularly for pH (r = 0.75), NH4+ (r = 0.67), and K+ (r = 0.43). These findings indicate that rainfall during summer plays a critical role in transporting atmospheric pollutants to the surface, while in winter, meteorological factors such as wind and humidity have a greater influence. This study highlights the importance of considering seasonal and meteorological variations when assessing the environmental impacts of PM.

This research was supported by Particulate Matter Management Specialized Graduate Program through the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) funded by the Ministry of Environment(MOE)

How to cite: Lee, H., Park, H., and Yang, M.: Seasonal Variations in the Correlation between Particulate Matter and Rainwater Quality in an Urban Area of Southeast Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7572, 2025.

EGU25-8244 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Integrating Citizen Data in Urban Flood Risk Modeling: Insights from synthetic experiments 

Minyoung Kim, Hyeonjin Choi, Bomi Kim, Yaewon Lee, Haeseong Lee, Junyeong Kum, Myungho Lee, and Seong Jin Noh

Accurate flood risk assessments are critical for mitigating the impacts of pluvial flooding in densely populated urban areas. However, conventional flood modeling approaches often face limitations due to the lack of measurement information. To address this challenge, we develop, implement, and evaluate a novel framework that integrates crowdsourced data, such as citizen observations, with process-based modeling to enhance the accuracy of urban flood risk assessments. The proposed method utilizes indicator co-kriging techniques to merge citizen-sourced data with auxiliary variables, including inundation maps generated from 1D-2D urban flood models driven by high-resolution radar rainfall estimates. The framework is applied to the Oncheon River catchment in Busan, South Korea, a region highly vulnerable to pluvial flooding due to its urbanization and complex hydrological conditions. To evaluate the method, synthetic citizen observation data were generated based on inundation maps. These synthetic experiments assess the influence of the spatial distribution and quality of citizen observations on urban flood risk predictions. This study examines the integration of citizen observations into urban flood modeling workflows to address uncertainties in models and observations. In particular, we investigate the extent to which distributed citizen observations enhance prediction accuracy and analyze the effects of model bias on the reliability of flood risk assessments. The study quantitatively evaluates the effects of citizen data quality and spatial distribution on the accuracy of urban flood risk mapping. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted for co-kriging parameters, focusing on semivariogram model selection and its influence on prediction accuracy.

How to cite: Kim, M., Choi, H., Kim, B., Lee, Y., Lee, H., Kum, J., Lee, M., and Noh, S. J.: Integrating Citizen Data in Urban Flood Risk Modeling: Insights from synthetic experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8244, 2025.

EGU25-8580 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Morphing sub-daily rainfall fields based on temperature shifts to project future changes in rainfall extremes 

Wenyue Zou, Daniel B. Wright, and Nadav Peleg

Understanding how the space-time properties of extreme rainfall shifts due to climate change is essential for assessing risks in water-related hazards. However, future sub-daily rainfall fields, which are the main trigger of pluvial and flash floods, are not readily available for most locations and many climate change scenarios, challenging the assessment of future hazards and risks. An alternative solution to running computationally expensive convection-permitting climate models to obtain future short-duration rainfall fields is morphing recorded rainfall fields considering temperature as a driving factor. Here, we suggest using a Gamma-based spatial quantile mapping (GSQM) method with temperature as a covariate to project an archive of plausible future rainfall fields that can be used to assess future changes in extreme rainfall frequency. Combined with a stochastic storm transposition (SST) method, which can estimate rainfall frequency for arbitrary spatial scales based on gridded rainfall, future changes in regional rainfall extremes can be efficiently projected. Using Beijing as a case study, we employ 22 years of 1 km2 hourly rainfall and hourly air temperature data to demonstrate the validity of the GSQM-SST approach. First, the observed scalings governing changes in rainfall fields with temperature have been explored across various intensities of rainfall. Then, those scalings are used to morph the rainfall fields’ intensities, areas, and spatial coefficients of variation. Finally, future extremes of 2- to 100-year return levels under several warming scenarios are estimated by integrating the GSQM and SST methods.

How to cite: Zou, W., Wright, D. B., and Peleg, N.: Morphing sub-daily rainfall fields based on temperature shifts to project future changes in rainfall extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8580, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8580, 2025.

EGU25-9374 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Analyzing the Influence of Spatial Variations on the Performance Metrics of a Rainfall Simulator 

Erdal Kesgin, Abdullah Emin Demircioğlu, Kadir Gezici, Selim Şengül, and Remziye İlayda Tan Kesgin

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the significance of rainfall simulator (RS) in hydrological research and investigates the effects of spatial variations on rainfall parameters. Rainfall simulators enable detailed examination of environmental variables under controlled laboratory conditions without relying on natural rainfall. However, the assumption of homogeneity in parameters such as rainfall intensity, uniformity, and drop size can lead to the neglect of spatial variations within the study area, thereby limiting the accuracy of the results. This limitation is particularly critical in studies focused on erosion, drainage, and infiltration, where spatial variations play a key role and may lead to misleading conclusions. In this study, performance parameters were evaluated across nine sub-regions along the simulator channel under four different rainfall intensities (40, 70, 80, and 100 mmh⁻¹). The effects of rainfall intensity on spatial uniformity and drop size were thoroughly analyzed. The findings reveal significant spatial variations in rainfall distribution. Notably, higher rainfall intensities were recorded in the middle regions resulting in higher uniformity values in these areas. Although the evaluation of uniformity coefficients for the entire area under 40 mmh⁻¹ and 70 mmh⁻¹ rainfall intensities yielded debatable results, sub-area analyses indicated that this uniformity did not hold true for the majority of the channel. Overall, a predominantly uniform rainfall distribution (>80%) was observed. Regarding drop sizes, spatial differences were identified, with a slight increase in drop size as rainfall intensity increased. These findings emphasize that treating rainfall parameters as a single fixed value for the entire study area may fail to fully capture the dynamic nature of natural rainfall. Considering spatial variations is essential for achieving more reliable and accurate results

How to cite: Kesgin, E., Demircioğlu, A. E., Gezici, K., Şengül, S., and Tan Kesgin, R. İ.: Analyzing the Influence of Spatial Variations on the Performance Metrics of a Rainfall Simulator, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9374, 2025.

EGU25-10988 | Posters on site | HS7.6

Recent developments in the quality control of personal weather stations data 

Jochen Seidel, Louise Petersson Wårdh, Nicholas Illich, and Christian Chwala

The use of so-called opportunistic rainfall sensors like personal weather stations (PWS) and commercial microwave links has gained much attention over the recent year, as they clearly outnumber professional rain gauges which are operated by national weather services and other. However, the data quality of such sensors is typically low and thus their information cannot be used without thorough quality control. Various quality control algorithms for PWS rainfall data have been developed and published within the EU COST Action CA 20136 "Opportunistic Precipitation Sensing Network" (OPENSENSE) in the past years and are available on OPENSENSE's GitHub (El Hachem et al. 2024).

Some of the new functions for these QC filters include (1) an improved indicator correlation filter which was originally developed by Bárdossy et al. (2019) which now provides a skill score for the accepted PWS to assess quality of the indicator correlation with neighbouring references, (2) an algorithm to correct rainfall peaks in PWS data which may be caused by connection interruptions between the rain gauge and the base station and (3) a Python implementation of the QC algorithms for identifying faulty zeroes, high influxes and station outliers originally developed in R by de Vos et al. (2019).

These new features will subsequently be implemented in the new ‘pypwsqc’ Python package (https://zenodo.org/records/14177798) which is currently under development in the OPENSENSE COST Action. In this poster we present the new features and guidelines for usage.

References:

Bárdossy, A., Seidel, J., and El Hachem, A. (2021), The use of personal weather station observations to improve precipitation estimation and interpolation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 583–601.

El Hachem, A., Seidel, J., O'Hara, T., Villalobos Herrera, R., Overeem, A., Uijlenhoet, R., Bárdossy, A., and de Vos, L.W (2024), Technical note: A guide to using three open-source quality control algorithms for rainfall data from personal weather stations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4715–4731.

de Vos, L.W., Leijnse, H.,Overeem, A., and Uijlenhoet, R. (2019), Quality control for crowdsourced personal weather stations to enable operational rainfall monitoring. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 8820–8829.

How to cite: Seidel, J., Petersson Wårdh, L., Illich, N., and Chwala, C.: Recent developments in the quality control of personal weather stations data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10988, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10988, 2025.

EGU25-11333 | ECS | Orals | HS7.6

The benefits of using raw CML attenuation data to predict urban runoff 

Ying Song, Fencl Martin, and Vojtěch Bareš

Commercial microwave links (CMLs) have recently shown great potential in urban drainage modelling due to their ability to provide rainfall-runoff dynamics. Studies investigating potential of CMLs to improve rainfall-runoff modelling typically used mechanistic hydrodynamic models driven by quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from CML attenuation data. Naturally, some errors are introduced, primarily related to CML rainfall retrieval model, including uncertainties in wet antenna attention correction, as well as errors originated from path-averaged character of CML QPEs. These processing steps not only generate some new uncertainties but also result in a loss of valuable information contained in raw data. Besides, mechanistic models require high-quality pre-processed input rainfall data, which adds complexity to the application. We address these issues by employing raw CML attenuation data without QPE derivation using a data-driven discharge model.

A Random Forest (RF) model is employed to estimate 2-minute urban runoff using the raw CML data. The study area is a small urban catchment (1.3 km2) with a lag time of approximately 20 minutes. Datasets consist of 1-minute rainfall data from 3 rain gauges, 10-second CML data from 14 CMLs and 2-minute flow data collected during the year 2014 to 2016. A calibrated SWMM hydrological model driven by the 3 local rain gauges is used as a benchmark.

 We find that: (1) Compared with rainfall data as inputs, CML attenuation data performs equally well or better in runoff simulation. The RF model with CMLs inputs achieves NSE of 0.90, PCC of 0.95, RMSE of 0.03 m³/s, and MAE of 0.02 m³/s; (2) The RF model produces comparable results to the SWMM model benchmark; (3) In addition, the RF using CML data can be used for runoff prediction exceeding horizon of the lag time. It accurately forecasts runoff up to 40-minute ahead, with NSE greater than 0.77 and PCC exceeding 0.88, whereas the RF using rain-gauge data struggles to forecast runoff more than 30-minute ahead. These results demonstrate that CML raw data can accurately yield runoff dynamics and volumes, and can be used for short-term runoff predictions.

How to cite: Song, Y., Martin, F., and Bareš, V.: The benefits of using raw CML attenuation data to predict urban runoff, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11333, 2025.

EGU25-11965 | ECS | Orals | HS7.6

 Modelling combined sewer overflow based on sewer network graph representation and rain radar data: application to the Seine river  

Yoann Cartier, Arthur Guillot-Le Goff, Rémi Carmigniani, David Métivier, Thomas Einfalt, Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, and Paul Kennouche

Rivers are at the heart of human activity. They provide many ecosystem services: drinking water, agriculture, transport, hydropower, bathing, freshness, etc. They are also hotspots for biodiversity. However, the water quality of these rivers is deteriorated as a result of human activity. The current work focuses on fecal contamination, which is a discriminating criterion for bathing.

In urban watersheds, fecal bacteria contamination comes from point sources related to the operation of the drainage network. During rainy weather, the combined sewer network, mixing both wastewater and stormwater, can become saturated. As a consequence, part of the flow is discharged directly into the river via combined sewer overflows (CSOs). This is the case for the city of Paris. The possible CSO overflow can be modeled by a function linking its discharge to precipitation. This relationship is currently poorly understood, with little related work, and even less for the Seine river.

To build such linking function, we rely on a dataset that includes location and hourly discharged volume of the monitored CSOs in the Seine River within Paris. Urban watersheds have been delineated within the study site. Rainfall height over these watersheds have been obtained from weather radar. We broke down the data timeseries into events. An event begins with the cause, the rain, and ends with the consequence, the overflow. To link rainfall to CSOs a directional graph based on the drainage network map, was created. It represents the wastewater transport from one watershed to another. This highlights which rainfall variables to consider regarding the CSO location. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to assess for rain characteristics selection. An unsupervised non-linear technique (Isomap) is then used to build linking function structure.

The overflow volume in time can be modeled by a triangular shape. This shape is described by the overflow initial time, its total and maximum volume and the time of the maximum. We expect to retrieve these overflow variables by reducing the number of rainfall event characteristics to single indicators using sequentially PCA and Isomap.

Modeling and forecasting source discharges would enable better management of bathing and water supply risks, and better evaluation of mitigation infrastructures.

How to cite: Cartier, Y., Guillot-Le Goff, A., Carmigniani, R., Métivier, D., Einfalt, T., Vinçon-Leite, B., and Kennouche, P.:  Modelling combined sewer overflow based on sewer network graph representation and rain radar data: application to the Seine river , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11965, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11965, 2025.

EGU25-13944 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Analysis of Urban Flood Simulation Considering Dual-Drainage and Buildings 

Seongcheon Kwon and Giha Lee

The frequency of urban flooding has been increasing due to the rising occurrence of extreme weather events driven by climate change. According to SSP scenarios, temperature and precipitation levels in the Korean Peninsula are projected to rise, leading to more frequent and intense localized heavy rainfall and hydrological disasters. This underscores the necessity for non-structural measures to mitigate urban flooding. This study empirically analyzed the significance of buildings and dual drainage in urban flood modeling and compared the impact of different modeling approaches on flood forecasting and risk assessment. Using manhole overflow data derived from the SWMM model, a 2D flood analysis model was applied. Additionally, a fully coupled 1D-2D model (H12) incorporating dual drainage concepts via grate inlets was utilized to enhance the accuracy of urban flood prediction and comparative analysis. The findings revealed that the proper incorporation of dual drainage and building structures significantly improved the accuracy of urban flood simulations, emphasizing their importance in enhancing the reliability of urban flood forecasting systems.

Funding

This research was supported by Disaster-Safety Platform Technology Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT. (No. 2022M3D7A1090338)

How to cite: Kwon, S. and Lee, G.: Analysis of Urban Flood Simulation Considering Dual-Drainage and Buildings, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13944, 2025.

EGU25-15426 | ECS | Orals | HS7.6

Analysis of Urban Flooding Impacts Based on Predicted Precipitation Uncertainty 

Jinhyeong Lee and Giha Lee

This study aims to analyze the impact of rainfall prediction uncertainty on urban flooding by focusing on the Dorimcheon basin in Seoul during the heavy rainfall event in the metropolitan area on August 8, 2022. Using AWS observed rainfall data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration as the baseline, the study evaluated the rainfall prediction performance of two predictive rainfall datasets (LDAPS and MAPLE), estimated manhole overflow volumes, and conducted flood simulations based on these overflow volumes. The results show that the predicted rainfall by LDAPS exhibited an NSE of –0.482 and a PBIAS of 87.692, indicating a significant underestimation. Meanwhile, MAPLE demonstrated an NSE of 0.668 and a PBIAS of –4.176, suggesting an overestimation but achieving quantitatively superior performance. The flood simulation results revealed that LDAPS-based predictions matched AWS-based results with a 5.2% hit rate, whereas MAPLE achieved a hit rate of 91.9%, along with an additional 0.856 km² of flooded area. This study highlights that uncertainty in predictive rainfall datasets significantly impacts urban flood prediction accuracy, emphasizing the necessity of calibration for predictive rainfall data to improve flood prediction reliability.

Funding
This research was supported by the Disaster-Safety Platform Technology Development Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT. (No. 2022M3D7A1090338)

How to cite: Lee, J. and Lee, G.: Analysis of Urban Flooding Impacts Based on Predicted Precipitation Uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15426, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15426, 2025.

EGU25-15815 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

How the shape of heterogeneous precipitation affects the response of urban drainage networks in SWMM modelling 

Elisa Costamagna, Luca Ridolfi, and Fulvio Boano

The prediction of pluvial flooding in urban environment shows many uncertainties due to the structure of drainage network and the usual limited amount of available rain gauges. These two aspects, joint with the increasing frequency of intense rain events, highlight the need to a better comprehension of the main impact of temporal and spatial variability of the rain in the modelling process.

Within the PNRR RETURN project, a SWMM model of an urban subnetwork has been used to perform a sensitivity analysis on the influence of the shape and location of a simulated rain event for different return periods and rainfall durations. Spatially heterogeneous rainfall events are simulated as exponential distributions, and the decay constant is used to quantify the degree of spatial heterogeneity of the events. A first explorative phase aims to recognize global indicators to describe multiple response scenario, comparing the effects of rain events with the same rainfall volume and different spatial distributions. Then, the increasing number of simulations should allow to identify the best indicators that will drive to describe the network response through topological techniques.

The results show a non-linear correlation between the number of flooded nodes and the rainfall volume occurred in a specific duration. When the spatial distribution of rainfall is more heterogeneous (i.e. high decay constant) the network faces more severe criticalities. Furthermore, the response of the drainage system is non-linearly correlated to the rainfall volume intercepted by the basin, highlighting the complexity of the response and the central role of the structure of the drainage network.

 

 

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Costamagna, E., Ridolfi, L., and Boano, F.: How the shape of heterogeneous precipitation affects the response of urban drainage networks in SWMM modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15815, 2025.

Changing precipitation extremes and more attention for water quality (e.g. the revised Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive in the EU) increase the need to understand, model and monitor sewer flow and especially combined sewer overflows (CSO’s), a major source of pollutants in urban areas.

The first step to model water quality correctly, is the correct modelling of water quantity. Additionally, to be able to test different setups and use these models in a complex modelling chain (e.g. in digital twins), there is a need for fast and correct models for the urban hydrological and sewer network.

Here, we present such a fast approach, allowing for a conceptual modelling of the urban sewer network. This is carried out by a combination of linear reservoirs, which resembles distinct zones within the urban area, and a neural network, which is applied to model the dry weather flow. By splitting the rain-driven and dry weather flow, the model can be more easily setup to correctly model sewer overflow, while simultaneously leveraging long-term area-specific relationships between the measured dry weather flow at the waste water treatment plant and the precipitation deficit.

How to cite: Van de Velde, J. and Dewelde, J.: Modelling sewer and combined sewer overflows through a combination of linear reservoirs and neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16211, 2025.

EGU25-17196 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Simulations of Precipitation Fields Using Stochastic Gaussian Process and Deep Learning in Urban Areas 

Tinghui Li, Shuiqing Yin, and Nadav Peleg

Extreme precipitation events can lead to urban flooding, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses, especially in highly urbanized regions. Precipitation fields exhibit pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity, influenced by factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns, topography, and urbanization. This complexity brings great challenges when simulating precipitation fields but recent advancements in remote sensing technology have facilitated the analysis of high-resolution precipitation fields that can be used to parameterize such models. In this study, we analyzed the spatial patterns of precipitation fields using gridded precipitation data from the CMPAS (China Multisource Precipitation Analysis System) product from 2015 to 2020, which offers a spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° and a temporal resolution of one hour. Using Beijing as a case study, we analyze frequency and duration, the temporal autocorrelation, spatial correlation, and variability of the precipitation fields. Building on these analyses, we conducted stochastic simulations using a spatiotemporal Gaussian field process and deep learning methods. Specifically, we employed the AWE-GEN-2d weather generator and deep generative diffusion model to simulate precipitation fields. The results indicate that AWE-GEN-2d effectively reproduces the evolution process of storm events, while the diffusion model excels in capturing detailed spatial patterns. These findings highlight the complementary strengths of the two methods and provide valuable insights for improving precipitation modeling, flood risk management, and climate resilience planning.

How to cite: Li, T., Yin, S., and Peleg, N.: Simulations of Precipitation Fields Using Stochastic Gaussian Process and Deep Learning in Urban Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17196, 2025.

EGU25-17447 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Assessing the interplay of topography and urbanization on surface runoff:  Modelling overland flow in synthetic urban structures as affected by terrain shape and steepness 

Marlin Shlewet, Karl Kästner, Daniel Caviedes-Voullième, Nanu Frechen, and Christoph Hinz

Urbanization is a global phenomenon characterized by the rapid expansion of urban areas, particularly into steeper terrain, affecting the hydrological cycle by increasing paved areas and surface runoff. The risk of occurrences and severity of flash flooding in both urban and surrounding rural regions may therefore also be increased. While river discharge data may reveal the large-scale effect of urbanization, detailed information on the sensitivity of small-scale changes to the hydrological cycle is generally unavailable. Spatial and temporal changes to catchment properties at multiple scales are necessary to better understand flood dynamics and risk. The objective of this study is twofold: (i) develop a method to assess the impact of the interplay between urbanization and topography on surface runoff and (ii) provide numerical case studies of urban surface runoff focussing on the effect of slope shape and steepness.

We define urban structures by the arrangement of road networks, buildings, and green space distribution at the macroscopic scale complemented by microscale features such as sidewalks and the spatial variability of infiltration properties. Urban structures have been generated by representing those spatial features as digital elevation models (DEM) on flat terrain coded in R. This DEM is then merged with landscape DEMS by overlaying both.  Different urbanization scenarios are being assessed by modeling surface runoff using the 2D shallow water equations under uniform rainfall events. Because global urban expansion is showing an increasing trend to develop over mild to steep slopes, we focus our analysis on the effect of slope shape and steepness over different spatial scales on spatial dynamics of surface runoff. This approach enables us to provide quantitative insights into the sensitivity of local and global runoff dynamics. The effect of urbanization is being described by gradually increasing the fraction of urban land coverage. The effect of large-scale (urban fraction, slope steepness, and shape) and small-scale changes (urban forms arrangement, presence and absence of sidewalks, spatial variability of infiltration properties) are analyzed by integrated spatial indicators such as the distribution of velocity and water depths, and hot spots maps of high velocity and depth, which are related to large scale indicators such as peak flow and time to peak of the discharge hydrograph.

Findings of this research point to the critical role of spatial scale in urbanization together with topography features and its profound impacts on runoff dynamics and infiltration. The interplay between large-scale and micro-scale factors helps to identify how the adjustment of small-scale features affects peak flow and high-risk hot spots. Slope shape analysis has indicated that concave slopes behave differently from uniform and convex slopes, with maximum velocities occurring on midslope depending on average steepness and curvature. Implications for urbanization are being outlined.

How to cite: Shlewet, M., Kästner, K., Caviedes-Voullième, D., Frechen, N., and Hinz, C.: Assessing the interplay of topography and urbanization on surface runoff:  Modelling overland flow in synthetic urban structures as affected by terrain shape and steepness, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17447, 2025.

EGU25-17803 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.6

Pluvial flooding assessment using remote sensors and object detection models 

Arianna Cauteruccio, Roozbeh Rajabi, Giorgio Boni, and Gabriele Moser

In this work, two different remote sensing technologies were employed to support the assessment of pluvial flooding scenarios: the Smart Rainfall System (SRS) to estimate the rain rate and aerial photos for object detection purposes. The SRS is a recently developed monitoring technique able to estimate the rainfall intensity by processing the attenuation of microwave signals from satellite links measured by low-cost sensors. To accurately identify exposed objects to flood hazard, advanced object detection algorithms based on deep learning techniques are employed. The proposed methodology was applied to a case study located within the metropolitan area of Genoa (Italy), characterized by a flat area of about 1 km2 and recently affected by a pluvial flooding event characterized by rainfall intensities having a return period lower than three years.

The study area is equipped with a traditional tipping-bucket rain gauge station and one SRS. Two further SRSs and two rain gauges are available close to the investigated area. This configuration allows to mimic different rainfall monitoring levels from the ungauged basin to a higher spatial resolution. Pluvial flooding scenarios were modelled using the HEC-RAS 2D software and results show that significant differences in the expected flood volumes and maximum water depth and velocity are obtained using various sources of rainfall data. The obtained differences reveal that the role of opportunistic sensors located within or in the proximity of the study area largely outperforms the contribution of nearby rain gauge data when these are located even only 5 km far from the study area. This is ascribable to the point nature of measurements taken by rain gauge against the more spatially extended rainfall estimation provided by the SRSs. 

The object exposed to flood hazard were detected using the You Only Look Once (YOLO) models applied to aerial images at a spatial resolution of 5 cm. The performances of various YOLO models were investigated. YOLO is pretrained for the detection of vehicles while samples of the aerial images selected outside of the study area were used to train the model for the detection of trash-bins. Results for vehicles and trash-bins are characterized by an accuracy of 95% and 69%, respectively. The assessment of the accuracy of the model based on the spatial resolution and the presence of shadows is still ongoing. Results will allow to assess the vulnerability of the urban context and will be combined with the flood hazard maps to obtain flood risk scenarios. 

This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Cauteruccio, A., Rajabi, R., Boni, G., and Moser, G.: Pluvial flooding assessment using remote sensors and object detection models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17803, 2025.

EGU25-19444 | Orals | HS7.6 | Highlight

One man's noise is another man's signal - the OpenSense project 

Vojtěch Bareš, Christian Chwala, Martin Fencl, Hagit Messer, Jonathan Ostrometzky, Remko Uijlenhoet, Aart Overeem, Remco van de Beek, Jonas Olsson, Maxmilian Graf, Tanja Winterrath, Soeren Thorndahl, Jochen Seidel, Roberto Nebuloni, and Natalia Hanna

For effective urban stormwater management information on rainfall at sufficient temporal and spatial resolution is an essential input. The lack of, or insufficient, rainfall data in urban catchments is a global issue that is particularly pronounced in lower-income countries, where the absence of traditional observation systems, combined with rapidly growing urban populations, makes the challenge even more critical. Opportunistic sensing (OS) of precipitation can help in this regard, especially because  the two most common OS sensors, i.e. commercial microwave links (CML) and personal weather stations (PWS), are densely distributed in populated areas and are accessible in near-real time. However, there are a number of challenges related to rainfall retrieval using opportunistic sensors. The rainfall data from opportunistic sensors contain high uncertainties and are often noisy, their networks are inhomogeneous, the data can be inconsistent and their interoperability is low.  Moreover, the data are owned by private entities and are often not accessible even for scientific purposes.

In response to this situation, the European OpenSense project was launched. It focuses on improving access to OS data, international coordination of OS data standardisation, data processing and follow-up applications in collaboration with a number of European national meteorological services. Our contribution provides an overview of successful community efforts in tackling OS challenges and highlights the evolution of OS techniques from the initial experimental phase to early-stage practical applications.  The benefits of OS observations for urban hydrology, along with the enhancement of high-resolution rainfall products are further demonstrated through several case studies. 

However, despite significant advances in utilizing OS data for hydrometeorological purposes, a key challenge that remains in its early stage is the upscaling of OS data acquisition and achieving global data availability. Therefore the OpenSense community introduces the concept of a global initiative to allow collection, curation and usage of OS data from CMLs.

How to cite: Bareš, V., Chwala, C., Fencl, M., Messer, H., Ostrometzky, J., Uijlenhoet, R., Overeem, A., van de Beek, R., Olsson, J., Graf, M., Winterrath, T., Thorndahl, S., Seidel, J., Nebuloni, R., and Hanna, N.: One man's noise is another man's signal - the OpenSense project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19444, 2025.

Urban planners and engineers rely on historical climate data to design flood protection infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme flooding events, typically associated with a 1% annual exceedance probability (the 100-year flood). This study examines how hourly precipitation extremes are expected to evolve with rising temperatures and how these changes will influence urban flooding risks. Specifically, we address the often-overlooked impact of short-duration rainfall extremes using a new non-stationary temperature-conditional extreme precipitation scaling method and a novel regional climate convection-permitting model ensemble for +2°C and +3°C global warming scenarios for the whole of Germany. We compare this newly generated non-stationary extreme precipitation dataset with an established dataset, and then assess the implications of the future precipitation changes on flood risks in two pre-alpine communes in Germany using hydrodynamic modeling. Our results reveal that ignoring climate change can lead to significant underestimations of flood risk. Under the +3°C scenario, flood risks increase dramatically, with a 60% rise in the number of buildings affected by high flood levels (water levels of 1 meter or more). These findings suggest that current or recently implemented flood protection infrastructure may be insufficient to address the future challenges posed by climate change, underscoring the need for adaptive planning to mitigate escalating flood risks.

How to cite: Laux, P., Feldmann, D., Marra, F., Feldmann, H., Kunstmann, H., Trachte, K., and Peleg, N.: Future Precipitation Extremes and Urban Flood Risk Under +2°C and +3°C Warming: A Novel Non-Stationary Climate-Hydrodynamic Modeling Chain for Using High-Resolution Radar Data and a Convection-Permitting Climate Model Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20737, 2025.

EGU25-264 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.7

Enhancing non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation through a precise extreme event extraction approach. 

Shubham Dixit, Kamlesh K. Pandey, and Suresh Kumar

The increasing frequency of global extreme hydrological events has highlighted the critical need for reevaluating hydraulic structures’ safety design considerations, mainly through non-stationary hydrological time series analysis. This study, conducted in the Krishna River Basin of India, aims to develop a robust methodological framework for non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation events, emphasizing the importance of accurate extreme event extraction. Accurate extraction of extreme events is crucial for non-stationary analysis, as it ensures that the events analyzed are truly extreme. This precision is vital for reliable predictions and effective safety design in the face of changing climatic conditions. The study is divided into two major parts. First, the block maxima and peaks over threshold (POT) methods for extracting extreme events were compared. In the block maxima approach, a block size of one year was considered, whereas, in the POT approach, three threshold selection methods were considered: percentile-based (90th, 95th to 99th percentiles), top 'n' values and graphical method. The graphical method was identified as the most effective, based on parameter stabilization, return value matching from two extreme value distributions, and Akaike information criterion (AIC), confirming its superiority in model fitting. With accurate extreme events extracted, the study proceeded to non-stationary analysis (NSA) using nine covariates, categorized into climate change, global warming, local temperature anomalies, and trends. A total of 23 stations were analyzed, identifying significant covariate combinations for each station through the lowest AIC values. NSA indicated that the selected covariates significantly influenced the non-stationary behaviour of extreme precipitation events. This study emphasizes the critical need for precise extreme event extraction in non-stationary analysis. The graphical method for threshold selection and identifying significant covariates offers a reliable approach to understanding and predicting extreme precipitation events.

How to cite: Dixit, S., Pandey, K. K., and Kumar, S.: Enhancing non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation through a precise extreme event extraction approach., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-264, 2025.

EGU25-711 | ECS | Orals | HS7.7

Changes in hourly rainfall return levels due to temperature shifts: global assessment of the TENAX model 

Ella Thomas, Marco Borga, Peter Vohnicky, and Francesco Marra

Extreme sub-daily precipitation is difficult to anticipate and may cause flash floods, urban floods and debris flows, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure, homes, and livelihoods. With increasing temperatures, more moisture can be stored in the atmosphere, which means that there is potential for larger extreme events. Indeed, short-duration precipitation extremes are already increasing in magnitude, and return levels (i.e., magnitudes associated with low exceedance probabilities) are changing. Quantifying extreme short-duration rainfall return levels for the coming years is critical for decision making and for defining insurance premiums. However, the methods we typically use to derive rainfall return levels do not include the physics driving the processes, so they are not suitable for predicting future extremes. The TENAX model was recently proposed to address this issue. It uses knowledge of temperature-precipitation scaling rates and statistics to predict future return levels of short-duration extreme precipitation based on the future temperature shifts. It has been successfully applied to mid-latitude regions, but we do not currently know how it should be parameterized for other climates with different temperature conditions and different processes behind heavy precipitation, such as the tropics. We apply TENAX globally using a global hourly rainfall dataset (GSDR) and ERA5-land reanalysis temperature data. We assess whether the statistical description of precipitation and temperature hold in different climates. Using the longest recording stations, we perform a hind-cast to check the ability of this approach to predict extreme hourly precipitation return levels for the coming decade. 

How to cite: Thomas, E., Borga, M., Vohnicky, P., and Marra, F.: Changes in hourly rainfall return levels due to temperature shifts: global assessment of the TENAX model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-711, 2025.

EGU25-732 | ECS | Orals | HS7.7

Balancing risks: How global trade dependence exacerbates and supply diversity mitigates yield failures under compound drought and heat events 

Shengli Liu, Tongtong Shi, Wei Zhang, Tong Li, Zhanbiao Wang, and Xiongfeng Ma

Global climate change poses critical challenges to food security and market stability as extreme weather events become increasingly frequent and severe. The combined effects of compound extreme events and global trade dynamics on food security, however, remain insufficiently explored. Here, we employed a copula-based statistical approach, integrating international trade data to estimate maize yield failures under compound drought and heat events (CDHEs) and to assess how global trade dependence and supply diversity impact food security under such stressors. Our findings reveal a 70.1% probability of global maize yield failure as CDHE intensity increases, with key breadbasket regions, including Northeast China, Europe, North America, Latin America, and South Africa, particularly vulnerable. Both drought and heat events contribute similarly to global maize yield risk; however, regional desynchronies, such as distinct effects in China and Brazil, highlight differing vulnerabilities. Furthermore, countries heavily dependent on imports from regions with high yield failure risk, such as Vietnam and Colombia, face an increased probability of maize yield failure exceeding 40%. Conversely, supply diversity offers a modest buffering effect, mitigating some adverse impacts of CDHEs, albeit with notable uncertainties. Our findings underscore the compounded vulnerability of maize yields to CDHEs, intensified by trade dependencies, while highlighting the potential for supply diversification to enhance resilience. Urgent adaptations, transformative strategies, and policy interventions are critical to mitigate cascading risks within the global food system, bolster resilience to climate change, and ensure food security.

How to cite: Liu, S., Shi, T., Zhang, W., Li, T., Wang, Z., and Ma, X.: Balancing risks: How global trade dependence exacerbates and supply diversity mitigates yield failures under compound drought and heat events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-732, 2025.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing substantial risks to densely populated countries in the Global South, particularly India. Heatwaves, droughts, and floods threaten water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human livelihoods especially heightening the vulnerability of urban areas. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to assess climate variability trends, identify regional disparities, and evaluate associated risks. Thus, this study analyzes climate extremes across 22 river basins in India from 1951 to 2023, using 20 extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature. The spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperature are evaluated using the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, Sen’s slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA). The vulnerability of 592 Indian cities to extreme climate events is ranked using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The findings reveal significant regional disparities. Half of the river basins show declining monsoon and annual precipitation, with snow-fed basins like the Indus and Ganga experiencing reduced post-monsoon rainfall. Rain-fed basins of Godavari and Narmada are facing longer dry spells, while the Indus basin is experiencing more intense, short-duration rainfall. Maximum temperatures are rising across most regions, although colder winters persist in the eastern basin of Brahmani and Baitarani. An interesting observation is the lack of significant trends in precipitation and temperature in smaller river basins. Further, the urban risk analysis highlights Ganga (largest river basin in India) as most vulnerable, inhibiting 22 out of 25 most-affected cities. In contrast, Bongaigaon town, situated in the Brahmaputra River basin, was found to be the least affected. The river basin of the East flowing river between Pennar and Kanyakumari showed the lowest risk of increasing climate extremes, with six of the top 25 least-affected cities situated in this region. This study combines diverse climatic datasets and robust methodologies to shed light on regional vulnerabilities and urban risks, offering a foundation for designing targeted adaptation strategies tailored to the needs of different regions in India.

How to cite: Roy, S. and Goyal, M.: Climate Variability and Extremes in Indian River Basins: Trends, Regional Disparities, and Urban Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1114, 2025.

EGU25-5069 | ECS | Orals | HS7.7

Can the climatology of heavy storm characteristics explain extreme precipitation statistics? 

Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Georgia Papacharalampous, Hayley J. Fowler, and Marco Borga

The assessment of extreme precipitation statistics is essential for managing flood hazards and developing effective climate change adaptation strategies. These design values are typically estimated through the frequency analysis of precipitation data, with limited understanding of their generative atmospheric phenomena. We aim to go beyond the statistical extrapolation of observed extremes with extreme value distributions towards enhancing their physical comprehension: this may be beneficial for improving our estimates of extreme precipitation probability and our predictions of future changes. Our analysis is based on a network of ∼300 rain gauges and temperature stations in a complex-orography region of the Alps. We estimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation from sub-hourly to daily durations for return periods up to 100 years (1% annual exceedance probability). We employ a non-asymptotic extreme value approach based on the concept of storms (independent meteorological objects) and ordinary events (duration maxima within each storm). We focus on the ordinary events exceeding high percentiles (e.g., 85th, 90th, 95th) at some duration, and we extract several characteristics of the corresponding storms, such as the event peak and average intensity, total lifetime, seasonality, temporal profile, peakedness, temperature, etc. We then assess their relationships with the parameters of our non-asymptotic extreme value model.

Our preliminary results show that variations in the model parameters depend on topography and event duration. Heavier tails in the extreme precipitation distribution emerge at sub-hourly durations in mountainous regions and for parts of the lowlands, but at longer durations in the pre-Alps. The scale parameter is generally higher in the lowlands and the pre-Alps. As a result, extreme precipitation intensity for short duration is generally higher in the lowlands than in the mountains (“reverse orographic effect”), with higher intensities in the pre-Alps at longer durations. Storm characteristics also vary with topography, precipitation duration, and event extremeness. In summer, front-loaded storms are prevalent at short durations, where heavier tails are observed. In the pre-Alps, storms are characterized by the highest extremes at long durations, have a more symmetric temporal profile, are most common in autumn, and have a longer total lifetime compared to the rest of the region.

Further investigation is needed to clarify the relationship between storm characteristics and statistical properties. This work enhances understanding of the key processes shaping precipitation extremes and provides insights for improving predictive models, ultimately aiding in risk assessment and climate resilience planning.

 

This study is carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).

How to cite: Dallan, E., Marra, F., Papacharalampous, G., Fowler, H. J., and Borga, M.: Can the climatology of heavy storm characteristics explain extreme precipitation statistics?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5069, 2025.

EGU25-8095 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.7

Using sub-hourly data for estimating the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across Europe 

Sigrid Schødt Hansen, Sara Maria Lerer, Roland Löwe, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Jonas Tranberg Hansen, and Peter Steen Mikkelsen

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves based on high temporal resolutions are critical for applications within urban hydrology. However, such IDF curves rely on national rain gauge networks with low spatial resolution, and the methods for producing them vary from country to country. Recent advancements in the availability of rainfall data across Europe create new opportunities for generating IDF curves at a continental scale. Our overarching aim is to develop a scalable Machine Learning method for generating IDF curves across Europe and make the results available to the public, especially users of the Scalgo Live platform.

Our initial step is to create a target dataset based on gauged rainfall data. For this purpose, we compiled a dataset of gauged sub-hourly rainfall records from five European countries (Denmark, Germany, Norway, Poland and Sweden). More data will be added as they become available. We constructed annual maximum (AM) series of rainfall intensities for 15 durations ranging from 15 minutes to 7 days and fitted Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to the data.

While the location and scale parameters of the GEV distributions showed consistent spatial patterns overall, the shape parameter was highly variable, likely due to sampling uncertainty arising from the limited number of extreme observations in the tail of the distribution. The analysis revealed significant temporal non-stationarity in approximately 5% of the AM series and indicated systematic differences in the location parameter along the Danish-German border.

Future work will use the created target dataset to identify and develop a Machine Learning model that uses geographical and climatological covariates from publicly available datasets to predict the geographical variation of IDF parameters across Europe, enabling the generation of design rainfall in both gauged and ungauged areas.

How to cite: Hansen, S. S., Lerer, S. M., Löwe, R., Sørup, H. J. D., Hansen, J. T., and Mikkelsen, P. S.: Using sub-hourly data for estimating the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8095, 2025.

EGU25-8955 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.7

A multivariate probabilistic framework for estimating control flood hydrographs for reservoir safety re-evaluation in Slovakia 

Anna Liová, Roman Výleta, Peter Valent, Tomáš Bacigál, Kamila Hlavčová, Silvia Kohnová, Michaela Danáčová, Zuzana Danáčová, Katarína Jeneiová, Lotta Blaškovičová, Jana Poórová, and Ján Szolgay

The changing climate and evolving watershed conditions pose significant challenges to the safety of flood control structures. Assessing the current safety of these structures, originally designed using limited hydrological records from the pre-climate change era, may result in inaccurate risk assessments and mitigation strategies. Additionally, traditional design methods often relied on classical frequency analysis, examining flood characteristics from a univariate perspective. This approach overlooks the multivariate nature of floods, where mutually correlated characteristics such as peak flow, volume, duration, and shape play crucial roles. Therefore, multivariate frequency analysis and the examination of joint distribution probabilities are essential to accurately reassess the risks associated with reservoir safety.

This study presents a framework that has recently been proposed in Slovakia to design new and re-evaluate safety of old reservoirs. The framework respects and describes the dependence structures among the flood peaks, volumes, and durations of observed and synthetic control flood hydrographs. The probabilistic nature of the framework lies in the fact that rather than examining the safety based on a single control flood wave, it allows to generate a set of control flood waves with associated probabilistic parameters. The seasonality of flood generation is respected by separate analyses of floods in the summer and winter seasons for which a representative dimensionless shape of the flood hydrograph is derived from a set of flood hydrographs separated from the historical records. The framework consists of five key steps: (1) separation of observed hydrographs, (2) analysis of flood characteristics and their dependencies, (3) modelling marginal distributions, (4) applying a copula-based approach for joint distribution modelling of flood peaks, volumes, and durations, and (5) constructing synthetic flood hydrographs. This offers a diverse range of control waves for assessing the safety of water structures under extreme conditions, utilizing a probabilistic and process-based framework in typical failure risk scenarios.

This multivariate probabilistic framework was tested on a case study of the Liptovská Mara reservoir in the watershed of the Váh river in Slovakia, revealing significant seasonal differences. Winter floods exhibited longer durations and larger volumes, whereas summer floods were characterized by shorter durations, smaller volumes, and higher peak flows.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency, under the contract No. APVV-23-0332; APVV-20-0374, and the VEGA grant agency under contract No. VEGA 1/0577/23; VEGA 1/0657/25.

How to cite: Liová, A., Výleta, R., Valent, P., Bacigál, T., Hlavčová, K., Kohnová, S., Danáčová, M., Danáčová, Z., Jeneiová, K., Blaškovičová, L., Poórová, J., and Szolgay, J.: A multivariate probabilistic framework for estimating control flood hydrographs for reservoir safety re-evaluation in Slovakia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8955, 2025.

EGU25-9578 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.7

Shifts in Extreme Events over South Korea under Climate Change: An Analysis Using Extreme Climate Indices 

Yookyung Jeong and Kyuhyun Byun

Climate change has significant impacts not only on natural and ecological systems, but also on socio-economic systems. In particular, the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events such as extreme floods, droughts, heat waves, and heavy rainfall are increasing in irregular patterns in many regions of the world. To address these challenges, it is essential to establish a scientific management system capable of predicting and preemptively responding to such extremes based on quantitative analyses of climate change. Therefore, this study aims to quantify and analyze spatiotemporal changes in extreme events for the South Korea using the extreme climate indices. We utilize long-term daily high-resolution and high-quality gridded meteorological data, which has been recently developed at a spatial resolution of 1/16° for the period 1973-2022. From this dataset, 8 temperature-related and 8 precipitation-related extreme climate indices are computed on a gridded basis. These 16 extreme indices were developed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). To evaluate changes in the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme events, we compare the mean values of the extreme climate indices for two 25-year periods: 1973–1997 and 1998–2022. This analysis provides insights into the temporal and spatial variations and differences in extreme events. The findings of this study are expected to reveal the trends of extreme events in South Korea due to climate change. Furthermore, they will provide a scientific foundation for developing climate change adaptation and management strategies at both national and regional levels.

 

Acknowledgement
This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through R&D Program for Innovative Flood Protection Technologies against Climate Crisis Program(or Project), funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2023-00218873).

How to cite: Jeong, Y. and Byun, K.: Shifts in Extreme Events over South Korea under Climate Change: An Analysis Using Extreme Climate Indices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9578, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9578, 2025.

EGU25-9612 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.7

Uncertainties in global climate and water models challenge future estimates of crop water use and sustainability 

Qiming Sun, Francesca Bassani, and Sara Bonetti

The assessment of crop water sustainability under future climate scenarios is crucial for coping with predicted water scarcity and for devising strategies to ensure global food security. In this context, the evaluation of crop water indicators generally relies on global scale projections of climatic and hydrologic variables which often provide divergent estimates of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and renewable freshwater rates, thus affecting the final evaluation of crop water needs and associated risks. In this work, by performing a multi-model analysis (considering four climate models and six water models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ISIMIP2b), we (i) evaluate and map crop water needs and sustainability under current and future climate scenarios, (ii) quantify the uncertainty associated with the climate and impact model selection, particularly focusing on how such uncertainties propagate both in time (from 2000 to 2090) and in space (ranging from global scale to the smallest grid cell unit), and (iii) assess the major sources of uncertainty (global climate or water models). Our results reveal a trend of increasing water unsustainability under future scenarios, despite significant uncertainties across models. Hotspots of unsustainable water use are identified in the Mideastern United States, Central Europe, and parts of South America, where blue water demands are projected to increase by over 150% by the end of the century relative to the year 2000. At the global scale, variations in green and blue water footprints from the average across all models are between ±10% and ±30%, respectively. Such uncertainties are highly amplified as the spatial scale of analysis is increased. For example, country-scale variations in green and blue water footprints of ±25% and ±100% relative to the multi-model average are observed in the United States. Disagreement across global water models dominates global uncertainty for blue crop water use and sustainability calculations, while variability across climate models contributes more prominently to green water footprint uncertainty under severe climate change scenarios. This study emphasizes the critical role of uncertainty quantification in understanding the variability of crop water requirements, offering key insights for managing agricultural water resources under changing climates.

How to cite: Sun, Q., Bassani, F., and Bonetti, S.: Uncertainties in global climate and water models challenge future estimates of crop water use and sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9612, 2025.

Extreme precipitation events have become increasingly frequent and intense in recent decades, resulting in severe flooding and substantial socio-economic losses. These events are typically associated with intense weather systems that vary across numerous meteorological factors and exhibit significant temporal and spatial variability. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying processes and the identification of key meteorological factors driving extreme precipitation are critical for enhancing the accuracy of extreme rainstorm predictions and flood warnings.

This study utilized cumulative distribution function (CDF) analysis based on ERA5 hourly reanalysis data and employed the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to identify the key meteorological factors contributing to 24-hour extreme precipitation across three distinct climatic zones in China. Additionally, forecasting models were developed to predict these events. The results highlighted the efficacy of this methodology and demonstrated its ability to achieve the following key advancements:

  • Mapping data into the CDF space effectively addressed the challenges posed by the spatial heterogeneity in the value ranges of meteorological factors in regional system analyses, thereby significantly enhancing the spatial scalability of the predictive model.
  • The integration of SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) value interpretation with XGBoost successfully identified the critical meteorological factors influencing extreme precipitation events. This facilitated the construction of classification and regression models to predict both the occurrence and the return periods of these events.
  • The application of SHAP values enhanced the interpretability of the "black-box" XGBoost model by incorporating physical insights and elucidating the interactions between different factors, thus providing valuable information for the construction and refinement of the final model.

In summary, this study presents a novel and interpretable machine learning framework for analyzing and predicting extreme precipitation events based on the CDF analysis. By effectively addressing spatial heterogeneity and enhancing model interpretability, the proposed methodology offers significant advancements in the prediction of extreme rainfall and associated flood risks, contributing to improved disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts.

How to cite: Wu, X., Jiang, Z., and Sharma, A.: Predicting extreme precipitation events using machine learning techniques based on cumulative distribution function (CDF) analysis of meteorological factors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13959, 2025.

EGU25-15034 | Orals | HS7.7

Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in Europe 

Dimosthenis Tsaknias

Extreme precipitation events are critical phenomena that pose significant risks to societies. Understanding their spatial patterns and drivers is vital for both scientific and practical purposes, such as risk management strategies. This study investigates the spatial correlation of extreme precipitation events across Europe, their modulation by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the detection of potential changes over recent years. Additionally, it evaluates whether these patterns and trends are accurately replicated by tools commonly employed in the insurance industry.

Correlations between extreme precipitation events across European regions are investigated. In addition, the NAO, which is a dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is widely considered to be a significant modulator of these spatial patterns. Positive phases of the NAO are associated with intensified extreme precipitation in northern and western Europe, while negative phases shift these patterns towards southern Europe. By coupling precipitation data with NAO indices, we demonstrate how changes in NAO phases alter the spatial coherence and intensity of extreme events. Furthermore, a critical aspect of this study is comparing these patterns and trends with the tools and methods used in the insurance industry.

This study contributes to a better understanding of extreme precipitation dynamics in Europe, offering insights for practical applications in risk management. By highlighting gaps in current approaches, it underscores the need for integrating advanced climate diagnostics into risk assessment frameworks.

How to cite: Tsaknias, D.: Spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15034, 2025.

EGU25-18901 | Orals | HS7.7

Hydrological design of hydraulic infrastructure in a changing climate – Insights for practitioners in Chile 

Ximena Vargas, Eduardo Muñoz-Castro, Joaquín Jorquera, Oscar Muñoz-Castro, Franco Ricchetti, and Tomás Gómez

Chile is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impacts of climate change. This suggests challenges to mitigate their impacts and adapt existing infrastructure. Despite a consensus that future climate change will lead to an increase in hydrometeorological extremes and the importance of including this factor in the hydrological design of hydraulic infrastructure, clear national guidelines on how to achieve and implement this in practice are still lacking. To address this gap, this study aims to align national hydrological design methodologies with international best practices by offering recommendations for addressing extreme precipitation and surface runoff generation.

Key considerations include the temporal and spatial scales of precipitation and temperature, and methodologies for flow estimation in gauged and ungauged basins. Dynamic modeling, statistical methods, and synthetic unit hydrograph approaches are explored, with applied examples highlighting the integration of climate change in estimating peak flows, extreme precipitation, and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves.

Our results show that dynamic hydrological modeling yields projections with lower associated uncertainty by accurately capturing historical patterns. Dynamic models account for interactions such as antecedent soil moisture and snowline shifts during extreme events. For northern Chile, spatially distributed or semi-distributed models are recommended to capture the heterogeneity of extreme events. In contrast, statistical and synthetic hydrograph methods present limitations due to their reliance on historical precipitation-runoff relationships and lack of spatial heterogeneity.

Finally, the study underscores the need for flexible, transdisciplinary approaches to address future climate challenges, advocating for hydrological system modeling and a deeper understanding of processes driving extreme hydrometeorological responses.

How to cite: Vargas, X., Muñoz-Castro, E., Jorquera, J., Muñoz-Castro, O., Ricchetti, F., and Gómez, T.: Hydrological design of hydraulic infrastructure in a changing climate – Insights for practitioners in Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18901, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18901, 2025.

EGU25-18938 | Orals | HS7.7 | Highlight

Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: Implications for Flood Risk and (Re)Insurance 

Ludovico Nicotina, Stephen Jewson, Ruth Petrie, Tyler Cox, and Patrick Ball

Flooding represents a growing concern for the (re)insurance industry, with precipitation extremes as a key driver of flood risk. Some of the most destructive flood events in 2024 were driven by extreme rainfall occurrences, although with important differences in spatial and temporal scales (e.g. Dubai floods, Ex-Hurricane Debby floods in Canada, Central Europe Floods, Hurricane Helene flooding in Georgia and North Carolina, Valencia floods).

Ongoing climate trends introduce additional uncertainty in the estimates of intensity, frequency, and distribution of rainfall extremes, complicating their quantification and risk assessment. Understanding and modelling these extremes is critical for improving flood risk management and financial preparedness.

This study investigates rainfall extremes in the United States across various temporal scales, focusing on their role in different types of flood risks. We compare multiple statistical models to estimate extreme precipitation values, including approaches that incorporate climate trends. By analysing spatial and temporal patterns of extremes, we evaluate how well these models capture underlying processes and improve predictive accuracy.

Our findings suggest that integrating additional information about climate trends and hydrometeorological processes enhances the accuracy of extreme rainfall estimates, moving in the right direction, although given the rare nature of these extremes looking at historical data alone leaves space for future unexpected outcomes. These results provide valuable insights for improving catastrophe models and stress-testing (re)insurance portfolios.

How to cite: Nicotina, L., Jewson, S., Petrie, R., Cox, T., and Ball, P.: Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: Implications for Flood Risk and (Re)Insurance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18938, 2025.

EGU25-19781 | Posters on site | HS7.7

Evaluation of Multiple Geomorphic Flood Inundation Mapping Techniques over the Eastern United States 

Koray K. Yilmaz, Maxi Sassi, Stefano Zanardo, Stephan Tillmanns, and Arno Hilberts

Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters causing significant damage to natural and built environments. Ever increasing flood risk due to increase in urbanization and climatic change requires effective and efficient flood inundation mapping techniques to be used within global flood models.  In this study, we evaluated multiple elevation-based hydrogeomorphic inundation models over the Eastern United States using high resolution digital elevation model (10meter). The inundation models we tested include the Hight Above Drainage Methodology (HAND),  Relative Elevation model (REM), Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) and a hybrid model between HAND and REM. We utilized the results of a hydrodynamic model as reference. Our results indicated that GFI methodology performs better compared to other methods, however requires calibration of three parameters for implementation, as opposed to one parameter for other models.

How to cite: Yilmaz, K. K., Sassi, M., Zanardo, S., Tillmanns, S., and Hilberts, A.: Evaluation of Multiple Geomorphic Flood Inundation Mapping Techniques over the Eastern United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19781, 2025.

EGU25-20629 | ECS | Orals | HS7.7

Estimation of flood peak distributions considering reservoir effects on tail behavior 

Stefano Cipollini, Elena Volpi, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Aldo Fiori

Hydrological extremes pose significant challenges to flood risk assessment and mitigation, particularly under non-stationary climatic and hydrological conditions. Hydraulic structures, such as large reservoirs, modify flood distributions by attenuating peak flows, with their effectiveness varying over return periods. This variability introduces non-stationarity in flood frequencies and has a significant impact on the tail of the distribution. As a result, data-driven approaches to flood frequency estimation can lead to under- or overestimation of flood quantiles, especially when limited observations are available. To address these challenges, we propose an analytical framework capable of defining the full probability distribution of floods at a control section. This method explicitly incorporates key physical processes, including the influence of reservoir volume, non-linear spillway behavior and threshold discharge on inflow hydrographs. The accuracy of the estimations is demonstrated by comparisons with numerical simulations of reservoir routing using the continuity equation in a real case study. Our results highlight the critical role of integrating physical processes into flood modelling to capture tail behavior, and show how statistical approaches applied to small samples of flood peak observations can instead lead to significant biases. The proposed analytical solution provides a robust and parsimonious tool for estimating the impact of reservoirs on floods, with applications in both risk assessment and infrastructure planning.

How to cite: Cipollini, S., Volpi, E., Vorogushyn, S., and Fiori, A.: Estimation of flood peak distributions considering reservoir effects on tail behavior, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20629, 2025.

EGU25-21728 | Posters on site | HS7.7

Parametric Flood modelling for the vulnerable population in Laos  

Hei Ching Kwan, Carlotta Scudeler, Graham Felce, and Hemant Nagpal

Parametric solutions can close the insurance gap while providing a protection for many developing nations in the world experiencing losses from natural catastrophes. The process generally involves real-time data analysis of environmental variables to verify the intensity of the event and if it passes or not the threshold specified in the policy. Despite the different benefits, developing effective policies is still very challenging due to regional variations in the parameters and the scarcity of high-quality and accessible data. This applies particularly to floods, which are also very difficult to model accurately given their complex nature. 

In this study it is shown how GallagherRe has faced these challenges in developing a flood solution for the vulnerable population in Laos. The workflow developed relies on the Mekong River Commission river water level gauge data, which is assessed for quality in reconstructing selected historical events. To evaluate their intensity, a Generalized Pareto Distribution is fitted to the statistically independent extreme values extracted from the data for return period estimation, enhanced through Monte Carlo simulation. The information is then used to identify an equivalent flood extent derived from third party hazard maps for the catchments assigned to the selected gauge stations through an event agnostic approach. The reconstructed extent is finally intersected with the input risk to get an estimate of the vulnerable population affected. 

The quality control of the gauge stations data identified that, due to a change in water level regime caused by anthropogenic events such as upstream dam regulation, only 16 out of the 28 available gauges can be used to support the parametric scheme. The limited catchments coverage determined for the valid gauges still allowed a significant portion of the risk to be captured in the hazard maps. In fact, most of the selected events resulted to be driven by the main Mekong River and its major tributaries, areas with both good valid gauge coverage and high population density. Despite this gap, it is also shown a positive correlation of increase in estimation with increasing size of event.

How to cite: Kwan, H. C., Scudeler, C., Felce, G., and Nagpal, H.: Parametric Flood modelling for the vulnerable population in Laos , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21728, 2025.

Severe climate events are becoming more frequent, leading to many fatalities, significant economic damage and disruptions to vital infrastructure. As a result, accurately estimating the frequency and potential consequences of widespread extreme events has become a critical need. However, the limited availability of observations of extreme events poses a major challenge for impact studies, and even large sets of climate simulations often lack sufficient extreme or record-breaking events for thorough analysis. In contrast, weather generators adapted to extreme observations can efficiently produce a large number of plausible extreme events, even those with unprecedented intensity levels. 

Using fundamental principles from spatial extreme-value theory, we adapt traditional Fourier-based phase-randomisation to specifically generate high-resolution synthetic datasets of rare extreme events. The key feature is that the stochastically generated datasets exhibit the same spatial tail dependence as the observed extreme events. Compared to other existing methods for modelling spatial extremes, our approach is distinguished by speed, easy implementation and scalability to higher dimensions.

Using high-resolution datasets for precipitation and temperature, we show that our algorithm produces realistic spatial patterns of extreme events.  We successfully generated datasets with 10,000 grid points, and this number can be easily increased. Given the need for high-resolution climate data in many impact models, our algorithm is particularly useful for robust impact and vulnerability assessments.

References

- Van de Vyver, H. (2024) Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes, Weather Clim. Extrem. 46, 100732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732.

How to cite: Van de Vyver, H.: Fast generation of widespread extreme events based on extreme-value theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1577, 2025.

EGU25-3243 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Spatial dependence of vegetation recovery after drought events and the spatiotemporal characteristics 

Steye Verhoeve, Sandra Hauswirth, Steven de Jong, and Niko Wanders

Hydrological extremes pose a serious threat to critical functions and services provided by terrestrial ecosystems. Anticipated increases in frequency and severity of droughts due to climate change is expected to negatively impact ecosystem functioning and vegetation health. The ability of vegetation to recover after a drought episode is an important metric of the drought impact. Wide-spread vegetation drought impacts can result in a regional decrease in ecosystem resilience and an overall decline in ecosystem health. Analyzing the post-drought recovery characteristics of vegetation and it spatial connectiveness provides vital information on the vulnerability to future droughts and its ability to deal with reoccurring drought events or multi-year drought events.

However, the spatial dependence of post-drought vegetation recovery i.e. the extent to which events co-occur at multiple locations simultaneously, is largely unknown and unstudied. In our research, we identify the spatial dependence of vegetation recovery after a drought using complex networks and event synchronization (ES). Thereby we aim to explain the underlying mechanisms and patterns which could potentially support recovery forecasting in the future.

Drought events are selected based monthly SPEI and EVI data, where an ecological drought event is defined as an EVI-anomaly coinciding with a meteorological drought. Based on these events, we create networks of drought event (recovery) co-occurrences. With the use of ES the spatial dependence of different stages of vegetation recovery is quantified. Additionally, regions with similar recovery capacity are evaluated to what degree their recovery responses can be explained by temporal or spatial factors like hydro-meteorological and geographical characteristics.

Our first results show that both geographical, climatological and hydro-meteorological factors are significantly different between regions with similar recovery behaviour. This highlights the relevance of using both temporal and spatial factors when studying the resilience of ecosystems after drought impact.

How to cite: Verhoeve, S., Hauswirth, S., de Jong, S., and Wanders, N.: Spatial dependence of vegetation recovery after drought events and the spatiotemporal characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3243, 2025.

EGU25-3425 | Posters on site | HS7.8

Spatial and temporal pattern of rainfall extremes in Iran 

Ali Torabi Haghighi, Alireza Gohari, Poria Mohit Isfahani, Reza Modarres, and Chiyuan Miao

Extreme rainfalls are important hydrometeorological variables for water resources management, flood mitigation, and soil conservation in Iran. This study examined annual and monthly maximum 24-hour rainfall from 135 stations across Iran, focusing on trends, frequency distributions and stochastic characteristics to investigate spatial and temporal patterns. Although a few stations exhibit statistically significant trends, most western and northern regions show increasing trends, while decreasing trends dominate the central and eastern semi-arid areas. Frequency analysis identified the Generalized Logistic distribution as the most prevalent distribution for extreme rainfall in Iran, with no clear spatial pattern in distribution type. In addition, spatioal analysis of L-moment statistics revealed high L-coefficients of variation in arid and semi-arid regions, while skewness and kurtosis did not show distinct spatial patterns. Lag-1 and Lag-12 autocorrelation coefficients of monthly extreme rainfall were also examined, revealing weak temporal memory and seasonal autocorrelation for most stations. Seasonal autocorrelation was more pronounced in the humid and semi-humid western and northern regions compared to the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. These results highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in extreme rainfall patterns and underscore the challenges of predicting extreme rainfall events due to their low temporal predictability and high uncertainty. The results emphasize the need for robust hazard and risk management strategies to address rainstorm- and flood-related risks across Iran.

 

 

How to cite: Torabi Haghighi, A., Gohari, A., Mohit Isfahani, P., Modarres, R., and Miao, C.: Spatial and temporal pattern of rainfall extremes in Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3425, 2025.

EGU25-3564 | Posters on site | HS7.8

Overcoming Data Limitations in Sub-Daily Rainfall Simulation 

Salvatore Grimaldi, Elena Volpi, Andreas Langousis, Roberto Deidda, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Anastasios Perdios, and Francesco Cappelli

The need for long-term synthetic sub-daily rainfall time series is crucial in various hydrological applications, particularly in flood frequency analysis. Traditional sub-daily rainfall simulation models rely on high time-resolution data, typically spanning only 20–30 years, which is insufficient for generating the long synthetic time series required for high return period design value estimation. In contrast, longer datasets of daily rainfall records and annual maximum values are more widely available, often covering 50–80 years. These datasets underpin the derivation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, a cornerstone of current hydrological practice.

This study introduces an innovative framework for simulating sub-daily rainfall time series using only daily rainfall records and IDF curves, thus eliminating the need for sub-daily observational data. The approach integrates a daily rainfall simulation model, Complete Stochastic Modelling Solution, calibrated with observed daily data, with a multifractal disaggregation scheme informed by IDF curves. The resulting framework offers a robust and parsimonious solution for generating sub-daily rainfall data.

By leveraging readily available datasets, this method expands the applicability of sub-daily rainfall simulations to a broader range of hydrological and climate modeling contexts, providing a valuable tool for advancing flood frequency analysis and related applications.

How to cite: Grimaldi, S., Volpi, E., Langousis, A., Deidda, R., Papalexiou, S. M., Perdios, A., and Cappelli, F.: Overcoming Data Limitations in Sub-Daily Rainfall Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3564, 2025.

EGU25-4059 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Compound Extreme Events Propagation Over China: A Complex Network Analysis 

Junyuan Fei, Xuan Zhang, Chong Li, and Fanghua Hao

Compared with univariate extreme climate events, such as extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, and heat waves, Compound Extreme Events (CEEs) have greater impacts on human activities and economic development. Gaining a deeper insight into the topological structure and evolutionary direction of CEEs is crucial for understanding their potential responses to altered thermodynamics and dynamics in a warming climate. Graph theory-based complex networks can effectively represent the relationships among various elements of complex dynamical systems, such as the atmosphere. They are thus used to analyze the directionality and topological structure of CEEs over a 60-year period across mainland China. Specifically, the CEEs are constructed by the combinations of univariate temperature and precipitation extreme events, with each univariate extreme event identified by fixed percentiles of the daily precipitation and temperature data. Our results reveal important structural and dynamical information about the topology of the CEEs and improve the understanding of the dominant meteorological patterns. The initiation and propagation of CEEs from source to sink zones are discerned, and their topological structure and spatial dynamics are influenced by topography, wind patterns, and moisture sources.

How to cite: Fei, J., Zhang, X., Li, C., and Hao, F.: Compound Extreme Events Propagation Over China: A Complex Network Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4059, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4059, 2025.

EGU25-6464 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

Spatio-temporal modeling of urban extreme rainfall events at high resolution 

Chloe Serre-Combe, Nicolas Meyer, Thomas Opitz, and Gwladys Toulemonde
Precipitation modeling is of great interest for flood risk analysis. We present a framework for modeling the distribution and the spatio-temporal dependence of rainfall measured at high temporal resolution and fine spatial scale by the rain gauge network of the Montpellier urban observatory since 2019. This data is complemented by hourly radar reanalysis data from Meteo-France, available at 1 km resolution on a regular grid and for a longer time period. By applying a neural network downscaling approach from reanalysis to local point scale for the marginal distributions, we aim to obtain a finer resolution dataset, a longer data period and a better spatial coverage by leveraging information from the two data sources. For univariate modeling, at the point level, we use the Extended Generalized Pareto Distribution (EGPD). It allows us to model both moderate and intense rainfall simultaneously without explicit threshold selection, a step that is often challenging in statistics of extremes, and to reduce the complexity of parameter estimation. The spatio-temporal dependence is modeled using an r-Pareto process with an underlying gaussian dependence structure. Unlike max-stable processes, which are often limited by their focus on block maxima approaches, r-Pareto processes offer more flexibility and practicality for environmental applications by using a Peaks Over Threshold (POT) framework. By incorporating a non-separable spatio-temporal variogram with advection, we account for the horizontal movement of precipitation clouds, enabling realistic simulations of spatio-temporal rainfall patterns. A novel composite likelihood approach based on bivariate joint exceedance indicators used for variogram parameter estimation. The model is validated by simulations of the proposed process and is applied to rainfall data from Montpellier. This methodology will be at the core of a stochastic precipitation generator for the Montpellier region, which will be integrated into a mechanistic water flow model for flood risk analysis.

How to cite: Serre-Combe, C., Meyer, N., Opitz, T., and Toulemonde, G.: Spatio-temporal modeling of urban extreme rainfall events at high resolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6464, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6464, 2025.

EGU25-6532 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

Accounting for Spatio-Temporal Dependencies in Flood Hazard Assessment at the Basin Scale 

Ana Maria Rotaru and Alessio Radice

Flood hazard assessment and mapping often rely on event-based approaches that assume uniform return periods for peak flows across an entire watershed. However, this simplification neglects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity intrinsic to flood events, potentially leading to inaccuracies in hazard estimation and, consequently, risk assessment. While many recent studies applying multivariate extreme value models focus on large-scale systems, this research applies the Heffernan and Tawn (HT) multivariate conditional exceedance model at the basin scale, using the Lambro River in Northern Italy as a test case.

The used hydrometric data required careful preprocessing to address gaps due to gauge malfunctioning or the lack of an appropriate rating curve to convert measured depths into flow rates. Missing data were handled using the Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) method. This approach iteratively models missing values by leveraging relationships among variables, ensuring that the imputed data preserves the underlying structure and variability of the original dataset.

The Heffernan and Tawn (HT) multivariate conditional exceedance model was used to analyze the spatio-temporal dependencies of extreme flow rate values. The HT model characterizes the joint behavior of variables by conditioning the distribution of one variable on the exceedance of a high threshold by another, allowing the realistic modeling of flood scenarios. After the dependence structure was determined, Monte Carlo simulations were employed to generate synthetic events based on the estimated model’s parameters, producing a comprehensive set of scenarios that account for the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in extreme flows. The synthetic event generation thus captured the intricate dependencies between peak flows across locations, enabling the synthetic events to reflect realistic flood scenarios. By focusing on a small-scale rather than a regional or continental one referred to in prior applications of this method, this work aims at improving hazard assessment tools at the basin level.

In order to exploit the generated events in hazard assessment, one needs to (i) develop an approach to obtain the multivariate probabilities of occurrence for the generated scenarios, which remains a challenging and unresolved task, (ii) execute multiple hydrodynamic simulations across the range of generated scenarios, and (iii) statistically synthesize the simulation results.

 

How to cite: Rotaru, A. M. and Radice, A.: Accounting for Spatio-Temporal Dependencies in Flood Hazard Assessment at the Basin Scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6532, 2025.

EGU25-8953 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

Floods we could have faced: exploring exceptional flooding using perfect storm concept 

Li Han, Bruno Merz, Viet Dung Nguyen, Björn Guse, Luis Samaniego, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

River floods that exceed historical records often come as a surprise, causing widespread damage and disruption. To enhance disaster preparedness, it is essential to estimate exceptional flood scenarios that surpass past observations. There exist a number of methods such as stochastic storm transpositions, storylines, and downward counterfactuals to explore the space of extreme floods. The perfect storm concept uses unusual combinations of causative factors to generate extreme but plausible flood scenarios. We construct synthetic floods by mixing past severe rainfall events with observed antecedent catchment states from other floods or extreme catchment states but without flood occurrence. In this study, we apply this concept to develop exceptional flood scenarios by using the meso-scale hydrological model mHM driven by 70 years of meteorological data across Germany.

Our findings indicate that plausible perfect storm scenarios, respecting flood seasonality, can produce exceptional floods exceeding those observed in the past decades. Shifting rainfall to wetter soil conditions amplifies flood severity significantly, with some cases experiencing flooding up to seven times more severe compared to the original events. Even minor temporal shifts in rainfall, such as one month earlier or later, can drastically increase flood magnitudes, highlighting the significant impact of the temporal alignment of catchment state and rainfall events on flood severity. The perfect storm approach provides a practical means for identifying and communicating plausible and intuitive extreme scenarios with low probability. By integrating this method into flood risk management, planners and policymakers can better anticipate and prepare for the impacts of unprecedented flood events, reducing negative surprises.

How to cite: Han, L., Merz, B., Nguyen, V. D., Guse, B., Samaniego, L., Schröter, K., and Vorogushyn, S.: Floods we could have faced: exploring exceptional flooding using perfect storm concept, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8953, 2025.

EGU25-9103 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

A probabilistic analysis of compound flooding in river confluences under different hydroclimatic and geospatial conditions. 

Faidon Diakomopoulos, Elisa Ragno, Markus Hrachowitz, and Laura Maria Stancanelli

River flooding impacts more people globally than any other natural disaster. River confluences are key nodes of a river network, characterized by complex hydrodynamic conditions. Hence, a general framework to investigate the sensitivity of confluences to extreme peak flows upstream, climate, and geomorphological characteristics is of great importance. Currently, a systematic large-scale investigation of peak flows of main river upstream and tributary and their interactions is missing in the literature. Here we analyse upstream and downstream peak flows and their relative occurrence in 153 catchments (51 confluences) across the world.  The results indicate that the time lag between the upstream and downstream discharge can be explained by their seasonality of the climate zone. This leads to different patterns of flood events in confluences, which can occur even when upstream discharges are not hazardous per se. The probabilistic characterization of the co-occurrence of peak discharge downstream of the confluence for different conditions upstream shows that the co-occurrence of extreme discharges upstream and downstream is not the most likely scenario, whilst the probability of peak discharge downstream with corresponding moderate discharges upstream cannot be neglected. These outcomes provide a general framework for improving the flood resilience in the proximity of the confluence.  

How to cite: Diakomopoulos, F., Ragno, E., Hrachowitz, M., and Stancanelli, L. M.: A probabilistic analysis of compound flooding in river confluences under different hydroclimatic and geospatial conditions., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9103, 2025.

EGU25-10317 | Orals | HS7.8 | Highlight

An analysis of return levels of Valencia's 2024 extreme rainfall 

Manuel del Jesus, Salvador Navas, and Diego Urrea

The flooding in the Valencia region on October 29 was unprecedented. It caused over 200 deaths and impacted an area far beyond the boundaries of the official 500-year flood maps. Its vast scale has raised many questions about the predictability of such events. In many ways, this disaster is reminiscent of the 1999 Vargas tragedy in Venezuela[1].

In this study, we analyze the return levels of rainfall recorded by several pluviometers in the affected area to assess the likelihood of such an event occurring and how this probability changes after the event has been observed. We apply multiple techniques to evaluate their stability and robustness in estimating return levels. These techniques include: maximum likelihood fitting of extreme value distributions, regional frequency analysis, L-moments distribution fitting, Bayesian techniques for station data, Bayesian hierarchical models for the region, and stochastic generation.

Our preliminary results indicate that the magnitude of the event far exceeded the usual design values, which may explain the extent of the destruction in the affected area. However, the stability of predictions varies significantly across methods. Our findings highlight that representing design values as distributions rather than single values provides a clearer understanding of the uncertainties inherent in extreme value modeling.

Additionally, some of our results suggest that such an event alters expectations for future extreme events, necessitating a reassessment of risk levels for infrastructure across the entire region.

References:

[1] Coles, S., Pericchi, L., 2003. Anticipating catastrophes through extreme value modelling. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics 52, 405–416.

How to cite: del Jesus, M., Navas, S., and Urrea, D.: An analysis of return levels of Valencia's 2024 extreme rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10317, 2025.

EGU25-10407 | Orals | HS7.8

Maximisation potential of observed floods using conditional rainfall simulation and moisture maximisation 

Uwe Haberlandt, Luisa-Bianca Thiele, and Ashish Sharma

Extreme floods are caused by special meteorological conditions matching critical space-time scales of flood generation processes in a catchment. Fortunately for most of the floods these conditions do not meet. Objective of this study is to investigate how big could have historical floods become under “optimal” rainfall conditions and which are the main factors driving flood maximization. For that, observed storms are stochastically modified. First the intensities are amplified, then the spatial patterns are changed and finally both conditions are varied together. The rainfall intensities are modified with moisture maximisation considering the observed saturation deficit. The spatial patterns are changed by conditional rainfall simulation considering temporal correlation and advection. The simulated rainfall realisations are then used as input for a rainfall-runoff model to simulate corresponding floods. This case study uses data from the Mulde river basin in Germany and applies the methodology to a set of selected large flood events. The results show that observed events could have been much worse with average amplification factors of 2.9 for rainfall and of 4.6 for peak flow for the worst-case scenario of stationary storms. The developed method could also be used as alternative for the estimation of probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum floods.

How to cite: Haberlandt, U., Thiele, L.-B., and Sharma, A.: Maximisation potential of observed floods using conditional rainfall simulation and moisture maximisation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10407, 2025.

EGU25-11590 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Assessing how Annual Precipitation is Driven by the Wettest Days using IMERG Earth Observation Data 

Benjamin Goffin and Venkataraman Lakshmi

In the context of global warming, daily precipitation extremes are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, further exacerbating the uneven distribution of daily precipitation throughout the year. The number of Wettest Days that contribute to 50% of the annual precipitation (WD50) is a key metric for understanding how annual precipitation is disproportionately driven by a small number of days, with significant implications for climate science and water resource management. Despite its importance, there remains limited research on WD50, particularly from the vantage point of satellites. Therefore, our study leverages NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global precipitation measurement mission (IMERG) to examine global patterns in WD50. IMERG data reveal substantial variability in WD50 across reference climate regions worldwide, with lower WD50 values in dry areas and higher values in wetter ones. Comparison with over 31000 rain gauges in the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) confirms IMERG’s alignment with ground data at specific locations (R2 between 0.49 to 0.68).  This analysis demonstrates IMERG’s capability to capture the wettest days as key contributors to annual precipitation. Furthermore, our research provides new insights into the heterogeneous distribution (spatially) in precipitation unevenness (temporally), which is essential for understanding regional rainfall patterns and their intensification in response to climate change. 

How to cite: Goffin, B. and Lakshmi, V.: Assessing how Annual Precipitation is Driven by the Wettest Days using IMERG Earth Observation Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11590, 2025.

Extreme weather and climate events such as heavy precipitation, drought, heat waves and strong winds can cause extensive damage to society in terms of human lives and financial losses.  As climate changes, it is important to understand how the spatial distribution of extreme weather events may change as a result. 

Most spatial statistical models measure spatial dependence between variables at different spatial locations directly, typically by their distance separation or via a Markov process. This study differs from previous research by examining the spatial aspect of essential field quantities, conditioned on the occurrence of extreme events somewhere in the field. Although some spatial fields may not encounter any extreme events over time, applying the Positive Extreme Field (PEF) concept (Kholodovsky and Liang (2021)) suggests that one or more extreme regions will exist. We refer to this modeling technique as the Propinquity (PQ) modeling framework.

Two different statistical approaches are utilized to model extreme events. First, the traditional univariate generalized Pareto (GP) model is applied to individual grid cells with quantile-based thresholds.  Second, rather than considering extreme values at individual locations and their temporal dependence, we consider an overall spatial field conditioned on being extreme by utilizing the Heffernan and Tawn model (2004) with PEFs from the STTC algorithm.

We apply these models to an observed precipitation dataset over CONUS and compare resulting trends in probabilities and return levels. The findings highlight the risks of aggregating univariate model results in space and emphasize the need to account for the connectivity between individual grid cells when calculating historical trends.

This work introduces a novel statistical methodology that enhances our understanding of added value —specifically, by conditioning on PEFs and accounting for the connectivity between individual grid cells—through the multivariate PQ modeling framework, which enables analysis of spatio-temporal dependence for extreme fields that traditional univariate approaches do not capture.

 

 

 

How to cite: Kholodovsky, V., Gilleland, E., and Liang, X.-Z.: Comparing a spatial propinquity extreme-value model with a simple univariate generalized Pareto approach for trends in extreme precipitation. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12517, 2025.

EGU25-12970 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Future changes in sub-daily catchment scale extreme precipitation in the Great Alpine Region 

Rashid Akbary, Marco Marani, Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, and Marco Borga

Understanding the scale-dependent behavior of extreme precipitation in mountainous basins is critical for improving effective adaptation strategies to rising flood risks. This study investigates the future changes in sub-daily catchment scale extreme precipitation across the Great Alpine Region. In particular, we examine how information about the projected changes of sub-daily point design precipitation can be transferred to projected changes of catchment-scale precipitation with the same return period.

Projections are derived from a 9-member ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project. The dataset spans historical (1990–1999) and far-future (2090–2099) periods under the high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with precipitation outputs remapped to a 3 km spatial resolution and a 1-hour temporal resolution. To analyze extremes, we apply the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value (SMEV) framework, a robust non-asymptotic statistical method well-suited for short data records.

The spatial analysis focuses on mean areal precipitation extremes, computed over various moving average window sizes, with the largest block encompassing an area of approximately 4000 km² (21 × 21 grid cells). Changes in 3-km grid design precipitation are translated to catchment-scale design events by quantifying changes in Areal Reduction Factor (ARF). We calculate the Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) for the window sizes across different durations and return periods, enabling us to quantify the scaling relationships between 3 km grid and areal precipitation extremes. By examining the dependence of ARF on duration and return periods under future climate conditions, we identify potential shifts in the spatial structure and intensity of extreme precipitation events. Our study underscores the importance of using high-resolution ensemble modeling to capture the complex interplay between spatial variability and extreme precipitation, and contributes to addressing the challenges posed by changing precipitation extremes in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Akbary, R., Marani, M., Dallan, E., Marra, F., and Borga, M.: Future changes in sub-daily catchment scale extreme precipitation in the Great Alpine Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12970, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12970, 2025.

EGU25-13172 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Statistical modeling of hydrometeorological events in poorly gauged coastal areas 

Pietro Devò, Thomas Wahl, and Marco Marani

Estimating extreme hydrometeorological events, such as storm surges or extreme precipitation , is crucial for effective flood risk management, particularly in poorly gauged or ungauged regions. As climate change intensifies, these events are expected to increase in frequency and severity, making reliable predictions even more vital for vulnerable areas. Traditional methods, such as asymptotic extreme value distributions, often face significant uncertainties when dealing with short observational records, which are common in many regions. This results in high uncertainties in extreme event prediction, thereby hindering effective preparedness and response strategies.

In this study we introduce an approach to hydrometeorological extremes that combines the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) and a flexible regionalization technique, aiming to overcome the limitations set by data scarcity in traditional at-site analysis methods. Unlike asymptotic methods, which uses only a small subset of the available observations, the MEVD method leverages the information contained in all observed events to infer the probability distribution of annual maxima. This approach is particularly beneficial when the data records are scarce, allowing for more accurate estimation of very rare events. Uncertainties can be further reduced by exploiting spatial information to compensate for the lack of information in time. The flexible regionalization approach proposed, unlike traditional regionalization methods, does not impose rigidly defined regions composed of statically homogeneous sites with predefined spatial boundaries. Rather it accounts for the observational information contained in the vicinity of the site where the estimation is being carried out by introducing a weight according to a similarity criterion. This feature allows for a seamless integration of data across varying spatial and temporal domains and a better representation of the continuous nature of hydrometeorological processes.

In this contribution the performance of the flexible MEVD-based regional approach is appliedcompared with that of state-of-the-art regionalization approaches.

How to cite: Devò, P., Wahl, T., and Marani, M.: Statistical modeling of hydrometeorological events in poorly gauged coastal areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13172, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13172, 2025.

EGU25-13466 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Properties of hydrological model residuals: a large sample study 

Luca Lombardo, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Martyn Clark, Cyril Thébault, and Alberto Viglione

Residuals from hydrological models are critical for evaluating model performance, improving predictive accuracy, and deepening the understanding of hydrological processes. Enhancing predictive methods is especially crucial for capturing extreme events, which have significant implications for risk management and planning. These residuals, however, are influenced by model structures, preprocessing methods, and catchment characteristics. This study addresses these complexities by systematically analyzing the statistical properties of residuals under various transformations and preprocessing treatments. The analysis spans a diverse dataset of catchments across a broad range of hydroclimatic conditions, with residuals generated from simulations of multiple hydrological models, ensuring both the generality and robustness of the findings.
Key aspects of the research include the evaluation of residual properties under transformations, such as log-transformation, and the role of preprocessing steps. Through this approach, the study provides a more consistent framework for assessing variability, skewness, kurtosis, autocorrelation, and dependency structures in residuals. Additionally, the analysis encompasses heteroskedasticity and tail dependencies, capturing the nuances of residual behavior across different contexts.
The dataset’s extent is a defining strength of this study. By involving simulations from a wide range of hydrological models (78 configurations) and including catchments with varying climatic and physical characteristics (more than 400 basins in the United States, ranging from dry to wet climates), the research delivers insights that are widely applicable to diverse hydrological conditions. This breadth ensures that findings are relevant for both theoretical advancements and practical applications, offering guidance to researchers and practitioners working with different modeling systems and catchment types.
A central result highlights the transformative impact of removing seasonality from residuals. De-seasonalization not only stabilizes key residual properties but also reduces variability across models, facilitating a clearer evaluation of model performance and error structures, underscoring the importance of standardizing preprocessing techniques in hydrological modeling, as it enables more robust and interpretable diagnostic frameworks. These aspects will be discussed in depth during the EGU presentation, with a focus on their relevance and practical implications.

How to cite: Lombardo, L., Papalexiou, S. M., Clark, M., Thébault, C., and Viglione, A.: Properties of hydrological model residuals: a large sample study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13466, 2025.

EGU25-13472 | Posters on site | HS7.8

Understanding Drivers of Baseflow Changes and Their Role in Hydrological Droughts 

Masoud Zaerpour, Shadi Hatami, André S Ballarin, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Alain Pietroniro, and Jan Franklin Adamowski

Hydrological droughts are often viewed through the immediate lens of atmospheric droughts, driven by precipitation deficits and evaporative demand. However, these droughts can be exacerbated by the long-term impacts of baseflow changes, which alter groundwater-fed streamflow critical for sustaining hydrological systems during prolonged dry periods. This study employs a global dataset of 7,138 catchments and the PCMCI+ causal discovery algorithm to unravel the spatiotemporal drivers of baseflow changes and their relationship with hydrological drought severity. We identify key climatic controls—precipitation, evaporative demand, and snow fraction—and quantify their influence across diverse climate zones. Precipitation emerges as the dominant driver globally (58.3% of catchments), while evaporative demand and snow fraction govern baseflows in tropical and polar regions, respectively. By mapping concurrent spatial occurrence in baseflow and hydrological drought, we delineate zones of critical risk where these processes overlap, exacerbating vulnerability to extremes. This study advances our understanding of spatiotemporal extremes and offers insights for improving the modeling and management of compound hydroclimatic events under climate change.

How to cite: Zaerpour, M., Hatami, S., Ballarin, A. S., Papalexiou, S. M., Pietroniro, A., and Adamowski, J. F.: Understanding Drivers of Baseflow Changes and Their Role in Hydrological Droughts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13472, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13472, 2025.

EGU25-14173 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Future Precipitation Trends Across Canadian Catchments: Insights from High-Resolution CMIP6 Downscaled Projections 

Hebatallah Abdelmoaty, Yohanne Gavasso-Rita, and Simon Papalexiou

Understanding how climate change affects precipitation patterns—spanning daily, seasonal, and extreme events—at the catchment scale is essential for assessing regional hydrological shifts and guiding water resource management. This study investigates future precipitation changes across eleven key Canadian catchments using 9-km downscaled simulations from CMIP6 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Through detailed analysis of daily, seasonal, and extreme precipitation metrics, we reveal significant insights into future precipitation dynamics. The findings indicate substantial increases in daily precipitation, with northern and coastal regions showing the highest growth, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Seasonal patterns reveal marked precipitation increases in spring and winter, with consistently elevated values in coastal and mountainous areas. Extreme precipitation events, including annual maxima and 95th and 99th percentiles, intensify notably under high-emission scenarios, with northern regions experiencing the most significant relative changes. These results emphasize the urgency of developing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to address emerging risks related to flooding, water resource management, and infrastructure resilience in the context of a changing climate.

How to cite: Abdelmoaty, H., Gavasso-Rita, Y., and Papalexiou, S.: Future Precipitation Trends Across Canadian Catchments: Insights from High-Resolution CMIP6 Downscaled Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14173, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14173, 2025.

EGU25-14313 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

Development and Application of Australia-Wide Extreme Storms Database for Hydrologic Risk Assessment 

Caleb Dykman, Youngil Kim, Rory Nathan, Ashish Sharma, and Conrad Wasko

It is now well understood that anthropogenic induced global warming is increasing extreme rainfalls, with the more extreme the rainfall, the greater the intensification. This in turn is increasing the magnitude of rare floods. For floods with annual exceedance probabilities rarer than 1 in 20, the intensification of rainfall offsets any decreases in soil moisture. Less well understood, however, is the changing impact of spatial and temporal patterns of extreme rainfall on flooding under a warming climate. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfalls during storm events has a significant influence on runoff volumes (and hence water availability) and on flood peaks. Hence, robust datasets are required to model hydrologic risk with changes in storm spatial and temporal patterns.

To this end, we have developed Australia-Wide Extreme Storms Database (or AWESD) which characterises storm patterns with high spatial (12km) and temporal (hourly) resolution for hydrologic risk assessments. Whilst the record length for such high-resolution data is currently 30 years, the availability of information at a high resolution over large homogeneous regions allows the trading of space for time, which has the potential to provide equivalent independent record lengths that are much longer than 30 years. To develop such a database, we first identify and track storms using two data sets: a low resolution (daily) gridded dataset based on observations, and a higher resolution (hourly) reanalysis dataset. Identified storms are then filtered to ensure they are independent in both space and time. Storms identified in the high-resolution reanalysis dataset are checked for consistency with the observation-based data set to ensure a grounding in reality.

Having developed the database, we then created a software for storm selection. Storms are selected based on an input catchment location plus a prespecified buffer region and within a range of prespecified ratios of catchment size. Storms are then transposed to the catchment centre. The final storms selection can then be formatted to facilitate input to event-based flood modelling software.

The development of the extreme storms database and storm selection software facilitates the undertaking of hydrologic risk assessments as storms may be sampled on depth/rarity, spatial homogeneity and temporal homogeneity. For example, it can be used to investigate how spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall may vary with event severity, and this could be used to inform estimates of dam failure risks. Furthermore, it can be used for climate impact assessments by sampling storms based on characteristics associated with a warmer climate e.g. higher depths and shifting spatio-temporal pattern distributions. With this storm database we believe it will enhance hydrological risk assessments performed for both present and future climate scenarios and deepen understanding of the role of spatio-temporal distributions on extremes.

How to cite: Dykman, C., Kim, Y., Nathan, R., Sharma, A., and Wasko, C.: Development and Application of Australia-Wide Extreme Storms Database for Hydrologic Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14313, 2025.

EGU25-14522 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Investigation of Changes in Hydrologically Homogeneous Regions for Regional Frequency Analysis under Climate Change 

Ga-Young Lee, Jiyeon Park, Sangbeom Jang, Seoyoung Kim, and Ju-Young Shin

 Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a more reliable method for estimating hydrological quantities than at-site frequency analysis, particularly in countries like South Korea where the observation period for hydrological data is relatively short. The results of RFA vary depending on the classification of hydrologically homogeneous regions. With the increasing occurrence of extreme climate events due to climate change not only in South Korea but also globally, the validity of existing hydrologically homogeneous regions defined solely by historical rainfall data is now in question. Currently, South Korea’s flood estimation guidelines classify the country into 26 homogeneous regions based on hydrological data collected up to 2017, without considering the impacts of climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate whether the currently used Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution remains appropriate by conducting a goodness-of-fit test after redefining hydrologically homogeneous regions. This study aims to reclassify South Korea's hydrologically homogeneous regions for rainfall regional frequency analysis using the up-to-date rainfall data and clustering analysis techniques. After collecting recent rainfall data, the data will be corrected using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method, followed by the reclassification of homogeneous regions through three clustering methods. The clustering methods to be applied include k-means, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based on artificial neural networks, and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), a dimensionality reduction technique for high-dimensional data. The results of the homogeneous region classifications derived from each clustering method will be compared using measures of discordance(H) and heterogeneity(Di). This study is expected to provide insights into how climate change affects the classification of homogeneous regions in regional frequency analysis.

 

How to cite: Lee, G.-Y., Park, J., Jang, S., Kim, S., and Shin, J.-Y.: Investigation of Changes in Hydrologically Homogeneous Regions for Regional Frequency Analysis under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14522, 2025.

EGU25-16975 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

Estimates of Point Rainfall Extremes from Satellite Precipitation Products: Application and Testing in Northeastern Italy 

Cesar Arturo Sanchez Pena, Francesco Marra, and Marco Marani

Reliable estimates of extreme precipitation are fundamental for understanding, predicting, and mitigating natural disasters. However, the inference of extreme precipitation magnitudes at the global scale is severely constrained by the low and uneven density of direct rainfall observations. Satellite-based rainfall estimates offer a promising source of information to support extreme value analysis but are hindered by high estimation uncertainty and coarse spatial resolutions. The coarse scale of global datasets, with grid sizes typically ranging from 100 to 600 km², prevents direct comparisons with point-scale extreme value estimates because point and area-averaged statistics inherently differ by construction.

This study addresses this limitation by systematically applying a downscaling method for extreme-value statistics based on the theory of random fields and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). We utilize a large dataset from approximately 200 rain gauges in Northeastern Italy and multiple satellite precipitation products, including IMERG, CMORPH, CHIRPS, SM2RAIN, MSWEP, and PERSIANN. Downscaling, based on the autocorrelation structure of the precipitation fields, is performed for each individual product on the grid cells corresponding to the available rain gauges. 

We compare downscaled estimates of daily 50-year return period event magnitudes with those derived from rain gauge time series, for individual products as well as for central tendency statistics of the ensemble. Additionally, we quantify the frequency distribution of estimation errors associated with different products and with their ensemble.

This research was supported by the "raINfall exTremEs and their impacts: from the local to the National ScalE" (INTENSE) project, funded by the European Union - Next Generation EU in the framework of PRIN (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale) programme (grant 2022ZC2522).

MM was also supported by the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Sanchez Pena, C. A., Marra, F., and Marani, M.: Estimates of Point Rainfall Extremes from Satellite Precipitation Products: Application and Testing in Northeastern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16975, 2025.

EGU25-18618 | ECS | Orals | HS7.8

Multivariate Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Tuscany: Comparing Factor Analysis and Copula-Based Models 

Mario Di Bacco, Fernando Manzella, Bernardo Mazzanti, and Fabio Castelli

Design rainfall estimation is critical for hydrological infrastructure planning and risk management. Traditional methods often rely solely on rainfall intensity, overlooking essential event-scale characteristics like spatial extent, duration, and precipitation volume, which play an important role in rainfall-runoff modeling. To address these limitations, this study adopts a multivariate approach to incorporate additional physical characteristics of rainfall events and enhance design rainfall estimation.

A key preliminary step involved the construction of a comprehensive rainfall event dataset for Tuscany, Italy, using high-resolution time series data from 270 rain gauges (1999–2024). To shift from point-based intensity data to event-scale analysis, specific criteria were defined to identify individual rainfall events. This process involved grouping measurements based on their spatial and temporal proximity and applying interpolation techniques to derive a unified set of physical characteristics for each event. The resulting dataset includes attributes such as total volume, duration, and spatial extent, offering a holistic representation of each rainfall event.

Two distinct approaches were employed to model the relationships between event characteristics and estimate return periods for extreme events. The first approach employs Factor Analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset by identifying independent latent variables that capture the linear relationships within the features. This method allows for the separate analysis of the marginal distribution using conventional univariate Peak Over Threshold (POT) techniques, though it sacrifices direct physical interpretability. The second approach utilizes copulas to model dependencies among the original event characteristics, providing a flexible and physically meaningful framework for joint distribution analysis.

This work contributes to the ongoing research by providing a robust framework for multivariate analysis of rainfall events, offering more informative design rainfall estimates to support flood modeling and risk management.

This study was conducted within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Di Bacco, M., Manzella, F., Mazzanti, B., and Castelli, F.: Multivariate Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Events in Tuscany: Comparing Factor Analysis and Copula-Based Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18618, 2025.

EGU25-18878 | ECS | Posters on site | HS7.8

A Copula Framework for the Development of an Integrated Heat Index and Joint Return Period Analysis 

Usman Mohseni and Vinnarasi Rajendran

Heatwaves pose significant risks to human health, agriculture, and environmental systems and thus have received substantial attention globally. However, the lack of a standardized definition, with thresholds varying in terms of duration, magnitude, and contributing variables, often complicates the evaluation of heatwave risks. Addressing this gap, this study proposes a copula-based framework for developing an Integrated Heat Index (IHI) that synergistically incorporates daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum relative humidity (RHmin) to analyze heatwave variability across India. This study utilizes high-resolution (0.5° × 0.625°) data obtained from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), covering a period of 43 years (1981–2023) and focusing on the pre-monsoon (March-May) and monsoon (June–September) seasons. We used the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to find the best marginal distributions for Tmax and RHmin. Eight different distributions were examined: Extreme Value, Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Pareto, Logistic, Normal, Gamma, Lognormal, and Weibull. We used copula functions (Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, and Gaussian) to model joint dependencies and chose the best copula based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In this study, a heatwave is characterized by its attributes, such as frequency (F), accumulated intensity (Icum), peak intensity (Ipeak), and duration (D). Although these characteristics of heatwaves are closely interconnected, they are often studied separately, especially over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we assess the joint return period of heatwaves over India using bivariate analysis, considering the combinations of D-Ipeak, D-Icum and Ipeak-Icum. This integrated approach offers a robust tool for assessing heatwave dynamics and provides critical insights into their spatial and temporal variability across India, facilitating improved risk assessment and management strategies for diverse stakeholders.

How to cite: Mohseni, U. and Rajendran, V.: A Copula Framework for the Development of an Integrated Heat Index and Joint Return Period Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18878, 2025.

EGU25-1331 | PICO | HS7.9

Balancing Benefits and Challenges of Regreening in Semi-Arid Climates. 

Mokhammad suleiman Mostamandi, Sergey Osipov, Georgiy Stenchikov, and Yoshihide Wada

Land surface characteristics significantly influence regional weather patterns, with the surface heat budget being governed by factors such as surface albedo, emissivity, heat fluxes, and evaporation.  In this study, we investigate the impact of regreening on regional temperature regimes and livability factors in the semi-arid NEOM region in northern Saudi Arabia. We conduct numerical experiments using a high-resolution (1.5x1.5 km grid spacing) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional model to study the effect of converting the surface type from desert to savanna trees with 45% density across a 3.2E5-hectare area. We evaluate the effects of regreening using simulations over three summer months.

Our results indicate that regreening reduces surface temperature by approximately 0.6°C, primarily due to enhanced evapotranspiration. However, irrigation and increased moisture fluxes contribute to a rise in wet-bulb temperature, an important metric for heat stress. Specifically, the wet-bulb temperature increased by 0.7°C, potentially exacerbating heat stress in the region. Notably, maintaining this regreened area requires about 1.2 billion tons of water for irrigation during the summer period.

In semi-arid regions used in this study, where natural water sources are absent, irrigation relies on desalinated water. Although desalination ensures a reliable water supply, it requires substantial energy and generates emissions that contribute to atmospheric warming and negatively impact regional air quality.

These findings highlight the trade-offs associated with regreening in semi-arid regions, where reductions in surface temperature due to evapotranspiration may be offset by increased heat stress, energy demands, and environmental costs of desalination. This emphasizes the need for integrated and sustainable approaches to such interventions.

How to cite: Mostamandi, M. S., Osipov, S., Stenchikov, G., and Wada, Y.: Balancing Benefits and Challenges of Regreening in Semi-Arid Climates., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1331, 2025.

EGU25-2201 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Impacts of South-to-North Water Diversion Project  Continuous Water Diversions on Increased Precipitation and Decreased Temperature in Water-Receiving Areas 

Haodong Deng, Qingming Wang, Yongnan Zhu, Yunpeng Gui, Yong Zhao, and Xiaoxue Chen

Climate impacts of the South-to-North water diversion project in China on water-receiving areas (WRA) is simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that during the 2015—2022 water diversion period, the WRA experiences increased precipitation and decreased temperature. Annual precipitation increased by 2.8 mm, mainly dominated by non-convective precipitation (1.92 mm), Although the upwind region receives more water, the increase in water vapor flux is more dramatic in the downwind region due to the spring northwest monsoon; The decreased temperature effect is most pronounced in spring (over 0.15 °C), and over 10 mm of evaporation increase in the downwind region. The sensible heat flux decrease is less pronounced than the latent heat flux increase, mainly because of the insulating effect, which prevented evaporative cooling reduction. This study advances our understanding of the mechanisms by which large-scale water diversion affects WRA climates.

How to cite: Deng, H., Wang, Q., Zhu, Y., Gui, Y., Zhao, Y., and Chen, X.: Impacts of South-to-North Water Diversion Project  Continuous Water Diversions on Increased Precipitation and Decreased Temperature in Water-Receiving Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2201, 2025.

EGU25-4645 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9 | Highlight

Irrigation indirectly sustains rainfed crops in India and China through atmospheric recycling 

Akash Koppa, Francesca Bassani, Victoria Deman, Damián Insua-Costa, Jessica Keune, Diego Miralles, and Sara Bonetti

India and China host ~45% of the world’s irrigated area, with irrigation accounting for 65–75% of the total water usage in these countries. The impact of intense irrigation on regional precipitation and even monsoonal dynamics is well acknowledged. However, the degree to which recycled irrigation water helps sustain rainfed crops, acting as an indirect source of water supply, remains unknown. This is especially important in India and China, where irrigated crops are grown in close proximity to rainfed ones. In this study, we quantify (a) the contribution of atmospherically recycled irrigation water to rainfall over rainfed regions, and (b) the importance of this contribution for satisfying the water demand of rainfed crops. 

The methodology involves 20 years of global Lagrangian atmospheric model (FLEXPART) simulations tracking 10 million air parcels. These simulations were constrained by ERA5 reanalysis data and satellite-based terrestrial evaporation data from GLEAM4. Evaporation from irrigated and rainfed crops was computed using the FAO-Penman method. Air parcels that contribute to rainfall over rainfed crops were tracked backward in time for a period of 15 days. Subsequently, the contribution of evaporation from irrigated crops to rainfall over rainfed crop regions was computed. 

Preliminary results show that, on average, ~15% of the rainfall over rainfed crops can be attributed to irrigation evaporation in upwind regions. The irrigation contribution to rainfall reaches as high as 50% in parts of the intensively irrigated Indo-Gangetic plain. Stark differences are observed between India and China, with irrigation contribution to rainfall over rainfed regions being substantially higher in India. Removal of this irrigation contribution would result in an average increase in evaporative stress of ~10%, with a maximum increase of 25%. With irrigation projected to expand to sustain crop production in a changing climate, it is likely to play an indirect yet significant role in supporting rainfed crops as well. Our results highlight the relevance of considering recycled irrigation as an essential source of water supply for rainfed crops. 

How to cite: Koppa, A., Bassani, F., Deman, V., Insua-Costa, D., Keune, J., Miralles, D., and Bonetti, S.: Irrigation indirectly sustains rainfed crops in India and China through atmospheric recycling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4645, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4645, 2025.

Northwest China is a typical arid and semi-arid region and an important climate-sensitive and vulnerable area. In recent decades, this region has experienced a notable trend toward humidification. Understanding the characteristics and trends of precipitation and the atmospheric water vapor cycle in this area is essential for predicting the future evolution of this phenomenon. Using observational and reanalysis data, this study classified precipitation in Northwest China from 1961 to 2020 into 20 levels, ranging from light to heavy events. The analysis shows that the overall increase in precipitation is largely driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 90th percentile, with the rising frequency of heavy precipitation accounting for most of the observed changes. Precipitation intensity across different levels is positively correlated with both external moisture transport and regional moisture contributions. Heavy precipitation events are closely linked to stronger moisture inflows and more active regional recycling processes. Enhanced precipitation efficiency and shorter moisture residence times further facilitate the occurrence of intense precipitation in the region. The increasing trend in heavy precipitation is primarily associated with greater moisture contributions from cross-equatorial flows over the Indian Ocean and increased local evaporation. These factors enhance land-atmosphere interactions and precipitation efficiency, thereby driving the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events.

How to cite: Hua, L.: Extreme precipitation driven humidification in Northwest China: Changes in precipitation characteristics and atmospheric water vapor transport in Northwest China, 1961-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5660, 2025.

EGU25-6217 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Non-local impacts of upwind vegetation on soil moisture across South America 

Shijie Jiang, Feini Huang, and Wei Shangguan

Soil moisture variability and drought severity in South America are increasingly pressing challenges, driven by global climate change and extensive land use change. In particular, the biophysical effects of vegetation not only influence local water availability, but also have non-local impacts through atmospheric moisture transport. Understanding how upwind vegetation dynamics affect downwind soil moisture anomalies (SMA) is critical to addressing these challenges. In this study, we investigate the role of upwind vegetation in modulating SMA from 2001 to 2018 using a deep learning framework. We identified a pronounced sensitivity of downwind SMA to Amazonian vegetation, with water transport dominating during more than half of the drought events. Hotspots in the eastern Amazon were found where increased vegetation could significantly enhance atmospheric moisture supply to downwind regions, thereby buffering soil moisture variability in Brazilian agricultural zones. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of atmospheric moisture transport in shaping regional hydrology and emphasize the interconnectedness of land use change and hydrological processes. By integrating vegetation dynamics and non-local moisture transport into hydrological and land management strategies, this research provides actionable insights for improving drought resilience and managing the hydrological impacts of vegetation in a changing climate.

How to cite: Jiang, S., Huang, F., and Shangguan, W.: Non-local impacts of upwind vegetation on soil moisture across South America, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6217, 2025.

EGU25-6823 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Simulating Precipitation Reductions from Land-Use Changes in South America: A Novel Emulator Approach 

Luis Gustavo Cattelan, Marina Hirota, Jess Baker, Stephen Sitch, Chris Huntingford, Jefferson Goncalves De Souza, and Emanuel Gloor

The Amazon rainforest faces mounting pressure from deforestation, resource extraction, and infrastructure development, with approximately 20% of its forest cover lost in recent decades. These changes, alongside rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, are severely impacting the forest’s resilience Deforestation not only reduces local evapotranspiration and alters surface energy balance—leading to declines in precipitation and increases in temperature—but also disrupts downstream rainfall through changes in water vapor transport, affecting regions dependent on Amazonian moisture.

While Earth System Models (ESMs) offer critical insights into these impacts, their high computational demands limit the range of scenarios they can assess. To overcome this, ESM emulators such as the IMOGEN system provide efficient, pattern-scaled projections. However, existing emulators often fail to incorporate essential local climate feedbacks, which are critical for understanding the Amazon’s resilience to climate change and land-use shifts.

This study enhances the IMOGEN/PRIME emulator to account for localized rainfall changes driven by upstream land-use alterations and deforestation. Using the WAM-2layers model with ERA5 data, we generate sensitivity matrices to quantify how evapotranspiration (ET) from different Amazon regions contributes to precipitation elsewhere. These are combined with ET anomalies simulated by the JULES land-surface model under various land-use scenarios. Scenarios are derived from the LuccME framework (Aguiar et al., 2016) and include: Sustainability, reflecting socio-economic and environmental advancements; Fragmentation, representing resource depletion and inequity.; Middle of the Road, a mix of both; Extreme cases, such as total South American deforestation, are also assessed.

By combining ET anomalies with water vapor transport sensitivities, precipitation change patterns are spatially mapped for each scenario and incorporated into IMOGEN. This integration allows for simulations of cascading effects from land-use changes on regional precipitation and climate.

The enhanced emulator offers a powerful framework to assess deforestation-driven climate impacts, including their effects on forest resilience and biogeochemical cycles. This approach provides a comprehensive evaluation of Amazon forest dieback risks under diverse CMIP6-aligned scenarios, delivering critical insights for conservation and sustainable land management strategies.

 

How to cite: Cattelan, L. G., Hirota, M., Baker, J., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Goncalves De Souza, J., and Gloor, E.: Simulating Precipitation Reductions from Land-Use Changes in South America: A Novel Emulator Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6823, 2025.

Located in the Congo River basin, the Cuvette Centrale is a densely forested peatland containing billions of tons of carbon. Past work has shown that this peatland is susceptible to large-scale drying trends, which could lead to substantial carbon release to the atmosphere. Understanding the sources of atmospheric water that sustain the Cuvette Centrale, as well as changes to these sources, is essential for characterizing current and future vulnerability. In this presentation, I will share recent work that examines the sources of moisture for the Cuvette Centrale over the first two decades of the 21st century. The results indicate that a substantial fraction of mean annual precipitation falling in the Cuvette Centrale arises as both local evaporation and evaporation from elsewhere in the Congo Basin. An analysis of annual anomalies reveals a multi-decadal drying trend occurring in the Cuvette Centrale, which may be associated with changes occurring throughout key evaporation source areas. Likewise, important links are shown between key ecohydrologic dynamics and moisture recycling to the Cuvette Centrale, such as changes in upwind evaporative stress. This work provides an approach for examining and interpreting changing hydroclimatic vulnerability of critical, global carbon stocks, such as in tropical peatlands. Furthermore, this work underlines the importance of monitoring land-surface changes that could affect moisture recycling to the Cuvette Centrale, such as expanding deforestation across the Congo Basin.

How to cite: Keys, P.: Moisture recycling and vulnerability of Congo's peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7817, 2025.

EGU25-10508 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Evapotranspiration and Feedback Effects with Climate and Land Use Change in the Eastern German Lowlands 

Somayeh Ahmadpour, Yasin Bayzidi, and Katja Trachte

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component of the hydrological cycle, mediating energy, water, and carbon exchanges on land surfaces and the atmosphere, which are critical for agricultural water availability. Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of ET and its relationship with atmospheric drivers and land use/land cover change (LUCC)  is crucial for assessing environmental impacts on regional water cycles and improving water resource management.

This study focuses on the lowlands in eastern Germany. It is a predominantly agricultural region with a continental climate. Despite being one of the driest areas in Germany, 45% of its land is used for agriculture. Using environmental data obtained by MODIS (ET, temperature, solar radiation, and LUCC) and the German Weather Service (relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit), ET trends and drivers are analyzed from 2000 to 2020. The objectives are to (i) identify key factors influencing ET and (ii) estimate the effects of climate change and LUCC on ET. 

Results reveal a slight increase in annual ET (taking into account the European vegetation period), with spatial trends showing increases of up to 7.17%, particularly in the southern and southeastern regions. Over the same period, Temp and VPD rose by 37% in the western and eastern areas, while RH decreased by more than 55% in areas experiencing higher Temp and VPD levels. Significant LUCC was observed, including a 22.24% decrease in cropland-to-grassland conversion and a 14.75% increase in grassland-to-cropland conversion, leading to a 21% decline and a 10% increase in ET, respectively.

Among climatic factors, VPD, Temp, RH, and SR had the most substantial influence on ET variability, contributing 28.24%, 27.68%, and 26.84%, respectively. Overall, climate change accounted for 97% of ET variation, underscoring its dominant role. Notably, discrepancies between ET and climatic drivers in western, eastern, and southeastern regions align with drought periods documented in this study. Our findings highlight the important role of Temp and RH in agricultural and water resources management, particularly in the context of climate change.

How to cite: Ahmadpour, S., Bayzidi, Y., and Trachte, K.: Evapotranspiration and Feedback Effects with Climate and Land Use Change in the Eastern German Lowlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10508, 2025.

EGU25-12170 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Hydroclimatic simulations sensitivity to land use changes  

Mariana Castañeda-Gonzalez, Siavash Pouryousefi Markhali, Annie Poulin, Jean-Luc Martel, Richard Arsenault, François Brissette, Béatrice Turcotte, Olivier Asselin, and Richard Turcotte

Historical changes in land use have shown different effects on climatic and hydrological processes across spatial and temporal scales. Among these, snow accumulation, snowmelt, and evapotranspiration are key processes sensitive to land use changes that can directly influence streamflow production at the catchment scale. The potential future effects of land use changes on streamflow production highlight the importance of assessing the sensitivity of modelling tools commonly used to produce hydrological projections, such as hydrological models (HMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Therefore, this study aims to assess the individual and combined effects of RCM- and HM-simulated land use changes on the streamflow simulations of five North American catchments. To assess RCM-simulated land use change impacts, three simulations from the Canadian RCM version 5 (CRCM5) were used: a reference simulation (current land uses), a forested scenario (100% forest land use), and a grass scenario (100% grass land use), following the Land-Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) protocol. Two distributed HMs, WASIM and HYDROTEL, were used to evaluate HM-simulated land use change effects on streamflow under the same reference, forest and grass scenarios. Results indicated that RCM-simulated land use changes had a greater impact on streamflow than those simulated by HMs alone. Regarding the differences between hydrological models, HYDROTEL showed higher sensitivity to land use changes in snow processes, while WASIM showed greater sensitivity in modelling evapotranspiration. Further comparisons with a modified version of the GR4J hydrological model provided additional insights into how model structures influence the level of sensitivity to land use, highlighting the importance of each hydrological model internal formulations. Moreover, this study underscores the need for further research into how HMs represent complex land use changes and emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate tools for specific local hydroclimatic conditions and land use dynamics to improve hydrological modelling and water resources management.

How to cite: Castañeda-Gonzalez, M., Pouryousefi Markhali, S., Poulin, A., Martel, J.-L., Arsenault, R., Brissette, F., Turcotte, B., Asselin, O., and Turcotte, R.: Hydroclimatic simulations sensitivity to land use changes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12170, 2025.

EGU25-14837 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

On the Link Between Physical Aridity and Rainfall Intermittency 

Mijael Rodrigo Vargas Godoy, Annalisa Molini, Yannis Markonis, and Gabriele Villarini

Rainfall intermittency is a defining characteristic of the hydrology in arid and semi-arid regions. These climates experience prolonged droughts interrupted by brief, intense rainfall events, which have substantial effects on landforms, ecosystems, and water resources. Under climate change, intermittent precipitation patterns are expected to become more prevalent across a wider range of climates. Despite this, there is limited research on the link between rainfall intermittency and physical aridity. Furthermore, high-resolution representation of rainfall variability remains a significant source of uncertainty in rainfall modeling and downscaling. Herein, we investigate the relationship between rainfall intermittency, its temporal scaling behavior, and aridity from a climatological standpoint. We hypothesize that intermittency is shaped by fine-scale processes, such as land-atmosphere interactions and local water and energy dynamics, alongside large-scale atmospheric forces. By analyzing extensive hourly and sub-hourly precipitation datasets from the Contiguous United States (NOAA US-HPD) and Australia (Australian Bureau of Meteorology), we uncover a clear functional relationship between intermittency and aridity metrics across diverse water-limited climates. These findings offer a foundation for enhancing precipitation downscaling techniques and understanding future precipitation regimes in regions with limited water availability.

How to cite: Vargas Godoy, M. R., Molini, A., Markonis, Y., and Villarini, G.: On the Link Between Physical Aridity and Rainfall Intermittency, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14837, 2025.

EGU25-15031 | PICO | HS7.9

Observational Evidence of Increased Afternoon Rainfall Downwind of Irrigated Areas 

Peter Greve, Amelie U. Schmitt, Diego G. Miralles, Sonali McDermid, Kirsten L. Findell, Almudena Garcia-Garcia, and Jian Peng

Irrigation plays a vital role in addressing the growing food demand of an increasing global population. About 70% of worldwide freshwater withdrawals are used for irrigation, and of the ca. 16 million km2 of global cropland, about 20% are irrigated. Due to the massive redistribution of water across the land surface and pumping of groundwater resources, irrigation represents one of the most critical and direct human interventions on the coupled water and energy cycles. As irrigated farmland continues to expand, understanding the climate impact of extensive irrigation becomes increasingly important. Yet, the effect on rainfall patterns near irrigated areas remains less clear. Here, we detect a systematic impact of extensive irrigation at the global scale on the location and downwind rainfall amount of afternoon rain. Using two global, high-resolution, sub-daily precipitation datasets, we show that afternoon rain events occur more often 10 km to 50 km downwind and less often upwind of extensively irrigated land. However, we also find that the total amount of heavy afternoon rain downwind of irrigated areas is lower than upwind. Our results provide large-scale observational evidence of the local precipitation dynamics and land-atmosphere interactions surrounding irrigated areas to provide new insights for regional water management and help constrain the representation of these processes in next-generation climate and weather forecasting models.

How to cite: Greve, P., Schmitt, A. U., Miralles, D. G., McDermid, S., Findell, K. L., Garcia-Garcia, A., and Peng, J.: Observational Evidence of Increased Afternoon Rainfall Downwind of Irrigated Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15031, 2025.

EGU25-18802 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Revisiting global oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources based on state-of-the-art Lagrangian transport simulations  

Victoria M. H. Deman, Damián Insua-Costa, and Diego G. Miralles

Understanding atmospheric moisture sources and their transport pathways is essential for advancing our knowledge of hydrological processes, regional precipitation patterns, and climate variability. In this study, we analyze continental and oceanic moisture sources with a focus on climatological patterns and long-term trends. To revisit our understanding of global moisture sources, we leverage a new global, open-source dataset spanning 45 years (1979–2024), derived from Lagrangian transport modeling with FLEXPART (Bakels et al, 2024). It contains 3-hourly information on the position of the air parcels which are distributed globally according to density as well as different associated state variables such as temperature or specific humidity. 

The outputs from the Lagrangian model are fed to HAMSTER, a tool for source attribution that is constrained by observational data of both precipitation and evaporation (Keune et al., 2022). Notably, we analyze the moisture sources for each continent separately in addition to the sources for the global land area as a whole, which enables us to: (1) assess intra-continental precipitation and evaporation recycling ratios, (2) investigate the inter-continental transport of moisture, and (3) analyze the role of different ocean basins in providing moisture to specific terrestrial regions. Moreover, the dataset’s longer record and its higher spatial and temporal resolution compared to their predecessors allow for an up-to-date investigation of the change in moisture source contributions over the past four decades. This includes exploring the impact of climate change and land use alterations on the hydrological cycle and how these changes affect the balance between oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources per continent. Overall, this study refines our understanding of atmospheric moisture transport dynamics in a changing climate, highlighting ongoing shifts in our global hydrological cycle.  

 

References

Bakels, L., Tatsii, D., Tipka, A., Thompson, R., Dütsch, M., Blaschek, M., Seibert, P., Baier, K., Bucci, S., Cassiani, M., Eckhardt, S., Groot Zwaaftink, C., Henne, S., Kaufmann, P., Lechner, V., Maurer, C., Mulder, M. D., Pisso, I., Plach, A., Subramanian, R., Vojta, M., and Stohl, A.: FLEXPART version 11: improved accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7595–7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7595-2024, 2024. 

Keune, J., Schumacher, D. L., and Miralles, D. G.: A unified framework to estimate the origins of atmospheric moisture and heat using Lagrangian models, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1875–1898, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1875-2022, 2022. 

How to cite: Deman, V. M. H., Insua-Costa, D., and G. Miralles, D.: Revisiting global oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources based on state-of-the-art Lagrangian transport simulations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18802, 2025.

EGU25-19822 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Water Use in Agroecosystems: An Extended Budyko Framework 

Sara Cerasoli, Giulia Vico, and Amilcare Porporato

Climate change and human activities are rapidly altering watershed dynamics, with agricultural management being a key protagonist in modifying water partitioning within watersheds. The Budyko framework relates precipitation partitioning to climatic conditions through fundamental constraints of water and energy availability. However, managed watersheds deviate from the natural Budyko curve due to their modified water balance, particularly through irrigation inputs.
This study develops a process-based extension of the Budyko framework by explicitly incorporating irrigation into the water balance equations. Our approach accounts for both stochastic rainfall and irrigation inputs, considering different management methods, climatic conditions, and crop parameters. This allows us to predict and explain the shifts in water partitioning observed in managed watersheds within the Budyko space.
We validate our theoretical predictions using real-world basins that span diverse climates and management practices - from rainfed to fully irrigated agriculture. The framework successfully captures the transitions between different agricultural strategies through their modified evaporative patterns, showing good agreement with observed data across various irrigation methods and crop types, demonstrating how these interventions have altered hydrological patterns on a global scale.
This framework advances our understanding of agricultural feedbacks on the water cycle through modified evapotranspiration patterns. The ability to characterize these changes using minimal parameters makes it valuable for improving hydrological models and detecting irrigation practices through their distinctive signatures in the Budyko space.

How to cite: Cerasoli, S., Vico, G., and Porporato, A.: Water Use in Agroecosystems: An Extended Budyko Framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19822, 2025.

EGU25-20298 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Simulating moisture-vegetation feedbacks in the Amazon under drought and deforestation scenarios 

Caterina Vanelli, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Simon Felix Fahrländer, Arie Staal, Werner von Bloh, Nico Wunderling, and Boris Sakschewski

The Amazon rainforest, a global biodiversity hotspot and home to over 40 million people—2.2 million of whom are Indigenous—plays a critical role in the global regulation of water and carbon cycles. However, its unique biocultural diversity is increasingly threatened by climate and land-use changes, which could shift vegetation in multi-stable forest areas to savannah- or grassland-like states. Satellite-based observations, Earth system models, and rainfall exclusion experiments provide evidence of the rainforest's critical dependency on precipitation and seasonality. Additionally, complex systems approaches suggest that forests in bistable areas are maintained by cascading moisture recycling, a process that is significantly reduced by regional deforestation.

This research employs  the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL (version 5.9), incorporating variable tree rooting strategies and coupled with moisture network data derived from the Lagrangian moisture transport model UTrack. The observation-based monthly moisture networks for the period 2003–2014 proportionally redistribute evapotranspiration from LPJmL over the Amazon basin as precipitation, providing a partially dynamic representation of the moisture-vegetation feedback. Future scenarios, including increased drought frequencies (based on the major droughts of 2005 and 2010 as analogs for future extremes)and two deforestation projections (based on the Governance and Business as Usual scenarios from Soares-Filho et al. (2006)), are implemented to analyse rainfall changes and the forest's local and telecoupled moisture response in LPJmL. We also provide a first estimate of the collective contribution of Indigenous Peoples’ Lands to terrestrial precipitation in the Amazon, by explicitly accounting for atmospheric water flows originating from Indigenous territories as in the data provided by Garnett et al. (2018). 

These findings add to our understanding of forest-water interactions from a moisture recycling perspective, assessing the impacts of drought and deforestation while highlighting the role of Indigenous land management. Advances in modelling could support future assessments of forest resilience and tipping risks, providing critical inputs for forest management and underscoring the urgency of effective climate mitigation.

How to cite: Vanelli, C., Andersen, L. S., Fahrländer, S. F., Staal, A., von Bloh, W., Wunderling, N., and Sakschewski, B.: Simulating moisture-vegetation feedbacks in the Amazon under drought and deforestation scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20298, 2025.

EGU25-21892 | ECS | PICO | HS7.9

Vegetation and Wind Speed Dominate Precipitation-Evaporation Recycling Processes during 1980–2021 

Yiying Wang, Chiyuan Miao, Qi Zhang, Jiajia Su, Jiaojiao Gou, Qingyun Duan, and Alistair GL Borthwick

Atmospheric moisture plays a crucial role in connecting global water and energy exchanges within the water cycle. Using a water recycling model, this study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and evaporation recycling ratios (PRR and ERR) across 200 river basins worldwide from 1980 to 2021, with data fused from three reanalysis datasets. The results reveal that regions near the equator exhibit higher PRR values, signifying strong moisture self-sufficiency, whereas arid, high-latitude, and inland regions show lower PRR values, indicating a higher dependence on external water vapor. Temporal trends indicate a decline in PRR and ERR in regions such as North America, South Africa, and Australia, while some areas in Central Asia and Europe have experienced increases. Structural Equation Modeling reveals that land cover, especially the Leaf Area Index (LAI), and wind speed are key drivers of spatial and temporal variability in water recycling ratios. The study classifies river basins into four categories based on their water recycling trends: ‘Enhanced Exchange Basins,’ ‘Beneficial Basins,’ ‘Shrinkage Basins,’ and ‘Reduced Exchange Basins.’ These classifications provide valuable insights into regional water cycles and can inform targeted water resource management strategies, crucial for addressing challenges like water scarcity and ecosystem restoration.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Miao, C., Zhang, Q., Su, J., Gou, J., Duan, Q., and Borthwick, A. G.: Vegetation and Wind Speed Dominate Precipitation-Evaporation Recycling Processes during 1980–2021, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21892, 2025.

HS8.1 – Subsurface hydrology – Transport processes & Groundwater Quality

EGU25-706 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Modelling the effect of microplastics on soil capillary and film water content and flow  

Ahsan Maqbool, María Auxiliadora Soriano, and Jose Alfsonso Gomez

Microplastic concentration is increasing in the terrestrial environments from primary to secondary sources, leading to concern about their impact on soil-plant water uptake and subsurface water storage. However, the impact of microplastic at the pore-scale level remains elusive, making it difficult to explain the in-silico behavior of soil water. Physical models can potentially identify microplastic's implications for capillary and film water content and conductivity than mathematical modeling. The effect of microplastics on capillary and film water content and flow is investigated by considering the polymer type [polybutylene adipate terephthalate (PBAT), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polystyrene (PS), and polypropylene (PP)], as well as concentrations (2, 5, 6, and 8 % w.w), soil compaction (1.06 to 1.50 g.cm-3), and different textures. The PDI (Peter-Durner-Iden) model system allows for a clear partitioning between capillary and film water content and capillary and film conductivity. The PDI model is calibrated and evaluated based on root means square errors for measured soil water retention curves (SWRC) and hydraulic conductivity curves (HCC) in saturated to dry moisture ranges with and without microplastic treatments. Results showed that the fitted physical parameters of soil without microplastics differ from the soil with microplastics. Capillary and film-dominated water content phases shifted, requiring less or more suction potential (m) depending upon the microplastic effect. However, the capillary and film-dominated conductivity phase decreases with microplastic inputs compared to without microplastics. Microplastic's impact on shifting film water content and conductivity-dominated phase may hinder the root's water uptake and biofilm formation in soil. Likewise, microplastic’s impact on capillary water content and conductivity-dominated phase can influence the vertical distribution of water fluxes and prolong the evaporation process on the soil surface. These changes occurred at concentrations exceeding those currently reported in terrestrial environments; thus, their interpretation should be cautiously approached.

 

This research was conducted within the SOPLAS project, financed by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie (GA 955334).

How to cite: Maqbool, A., Soriano, M. A., and Alfsonso Gomez, J.: Modelling the effect of microplastics on soil capillary and film water content and flow , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-706, 2025.

EGU25-1065 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Morphodepositional Insights into Microplastics and Microfibers in Beach Sediments of the Vesuvian Coast, Southern Italy 

Mariarca D'Aniello, Carlo Donadio, Luca Lämmle, Michele Arienzo, Luciano Ferrara, Vincenzo Vedi, and Manuela Rossi

The presence of Microplastics (MPs) and microfibers (MFs) in coastal environments is a significant environmental concern. MPs, defined as particles between 1 μm and 5 mm, and MFs, elongated fibers with a length-to-width ratio between 3:1 and 5:1, persist in sedimentary systems due to their durability and resistance to degradation. The physical and chemical properties of these particles, such as particle size, shape, surface roughness, and degree of alteration, influence their transport, deposition, and interactions with the environment. These characteristics also affect their fate and bioavailability for marine organisms. Building on a novel green protocol developed by Rossi et al. (2024) [1] for identifying MPs and MFs in marine sediments, this study investigates the morphodepositional dynamics of these pollutants along the Vesuvian Coast, southern Italy. The research utilizes a combination of stereomicroscopy for particle morphology, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) for detailed structural analysis, and granulometric and grain morphoscopic methods for characterization.

A key innovation of this study is the development of an eco-friendly protocol that combines optical microscopy and statistical analysis, eliminating the need for traditional methods such as chemical digestion and density separation. This approach provides a more sustainable and precise method for particle identification and analysis. Results revealed a predominance of MFs over MPs across all sites, with significant spatial variability in their characteristics. MFs near the shoreline were longer (mean length of 1,437 μm) and less weathered compared to those found further inland, where smaller, more degraded particles were present due to prolonged exposure to environmental stressors. MPs were primarily angular fragments closely associated with sediment grains, while fibrous MPs adhered to or coiled around the grains, influencing their movement during littoral drift. Pollution levels varied significantly across the study sites. San Giovanni a Teduccio beach, adjacent to industrial facilities and wastewater outlets, exhibited the highest levels of contamination, while beaches further south, such as Torre del Greco, showed lower levels, reflecting the role of longshore currents in dispersing pollutants.

The statistical and morphodepositional analysis applied in this study provides a deeper understanding of the environmental processes that govern the distribution and alteration of MPs and MFs in coastal systems. These insights can help improve strategies for pollution management and the preservation of marine ecosystems. The innovative protocol developed in this research offers a valuable tool for future studies of MPs and MFs, contributing to more sustainable environmental monitoring practices.

 

Reference:
[1] Rossi, M., et al. "A new green protocol for the identification of microplastics and microfibers in marine sediments, a case study from the Vesuvian Coast, Southern Italy", 2024. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 477(7), 135272. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2024.135272

How to cite: D'Aniello, M., Donadio, C., Lämmle, L., Arienzo, M., Ferrara, L., Vedi, V., and Rossi, M.: Morphodepositional Insights into Microplastics and Microfibers in Beach Sediments of the Vesuvian Coast, Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1065, 2025.

EGU25-1623 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Copper nanoparticles combined with fungicides: an eco-compatible anti-resistance tool against Alternaria alternata 

Anastasios Malandrakis, Nektarios Kavroulakis, Olga Tsiouri, Kalliope Papadopoulou, Stefanos Papadakis, Vasileios Katzourakis, and Constantinos Chrysikopoulos

Copper nanoparticles (Cu-NPs) were evaluated as a potential control agent against both sensitive and fludioxonil-resistant isolates of Alternaria alternata in vitro and in vivo. Five highly fludioxonil-resistant, spontaneous mutants of A. alternata, were acquired from wild-type strains after selection on media containing fludioxonil. Mutations in the coding region of the AaHK1 gene leading to premature termination of the protein in resistant isolates were identified by sequencing. Notably, these resistance mutations did not adversely affect mycelial growth or virulence; however, fludioxonil-resistant isolates demonstrated increased sensitivity to osmotic stress and reduced conidia production compared to wild-type strains. Cu-NPs exhibited a superior fungitoxic effect against both wild-type and resistant isolates, outperforming the reference Cu(OH)2-containing fungicide. The combination of Cu-NPs with fludioxonil or iprodione resulted in a significant synergistic effect, that could be associated with an enhanced fungicide bioavailability. The fungitoxic mechanism of Cu-NPs was not solely attributable to copper ion release, as evidenced by the synergistic interaction with EDTA, a strong chelating agent, and the distinct lack of correlation with Cu(OH)2. The synergistic activity observed between Cu-NPs and EDTA may be attributed to a reduction in nanoparticle size due to the chelating agent's capping effect. Additionally, ATP-dependent ion efflux may play a role in the fungitoxicity of Cu-NPs against A. alternata, supported by the additive effects observed with fluazinam, an oxidative phosphorylation uncoupler. Collectively, these findings indicate that Cu-NPs represent a viable, alternative fungicide against A. alternata and offer a promising strategy for mitigating resistance when used in combination with fludioxonil or iprodione, ultimately reducing environmental impacts associated with synthetic fungicides.

This study was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Rural Development Program (RDP/ΠΑΑ) 2014 – 2020, under the call "Cooperation for environmental projects, environmental practices and actions for climate change" (project code: Μ16SΥΝ2-00354).

How to cite: Malandrakis, A., Kavroulakis, N., Tsiouri, O., Papadopoulou, K., Papadakis, S., Katzourakis, V., and Chrysikopoulos, C.: Copper nanoparticles combined with fungicides: an eco-compatible anti-resistance tool against Alternaria alternata, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1623, 2025.

EGU25-1647 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Veni, inhibui, disparui - The Journey of Nitrification and Urease Inhibitors in Soil 

Eva Weidemann and Matthias Gassmann

Nitrification inhibitors (NI) and urease inhibitors (UI) are substances which are useful to delay nitrification in soil. This delay can have several advantages: nitrate leaching reduction, longer availability of ammonium for plants and slower conversion of urea to ammonia. But everything comes with a price. The release of artificial substances can have negative impacts on the environment such as observed with PFAS or some pesticides and their transformation products. Therefore, it is crucial to know their environmental fate before using it on a large scale.

To learn about the fate of NI and UI, we conducted two soil column studies. In the first study, we applied three fertilizers with different inhibitors on two different topsoils at a concentration of  15 g/m²: ENTEC 26 (3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate [DMPP]), ENSIN PLUS (Dicyandiamide [DCD] and 4-amino-1,2,4-triazole [ATC]), Alzon Neo-N (reaction mass of N-((5-Methyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)methyl)acetamide, N-((3-Methyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl)methyl)acetamide [MPA] and N-(2-nitrophenyl)phosphoric triamide [2-NPT]. In the second study we applied the same inhibitors without fertilizer on two different subsoils.

Both studies were conducted under two different temperatures to learn about its impact on transformation rates. In the first study, mass balances after 40 weeks showed that 0.36-1.26% DMPP, 0.03-0.22% DCD and 4.09-9.22% ATC were recovered from soils and cumulated percolates. Temperature effects were especially visible for the less transformed ATC, but with differences between both soils. In one soil, more ATC dissipated at 20 °C than at 10 °C, in the second soil it was the other way around. There are several possible explanations for those temperature differences such as different soil properties influencing adsorption and formation of non-extractable residues, the composition of microorganisms and their available nutrients.

No masses of MPA and 2-NPT were detected in either soil or percolate, indicating complete transformation. These results are consistent with reported DT50 values in the literature, implying that both substances undergo 50% biotransformation in soil within less than 10 days. 1,2,4-Triazole masses in one of the soil and related percolate increased with a factor of 4-14, compared to background concentrations which were analyzed at the beginning of study. These results will be compared with those gained by the second study, in which the subsoils are less adsorptive.

How to cite: Weidemann, E. and Gassmann, M.: Veni, inhibui, disparui - The Journey of Nitrification and Urease Inhibitors in Soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1647, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1647, 2025.

EGU25-2928 | Orals | HS8.1.1

PFAS-LEACH: A Comprehensive Decision Support Platform for Modeling PFAS Leaching in Source Zones 

Bo Guo, Jicai Zeng, Mark Brusseau, Jacob Smith, and Min Ma

PFAS-LEACH is a comprehensive decision support platform developed at the University of Arizona that has the capability to quantify source attenuation, spatial mass distribution, and long-term mass discharge of PFAS from the vadose zone to groundwater at PFAS-impacted sites. It includes a suite of four tiers of models spanning from a full-process 3D numerical simulator to analytical solutions implemented in Excel to simple dilution-attenuation calculations. These models account for the various PFAS-specific fate and transport processes in soil and groundwater. This presentation will describe the specific processes represented in each of the model Tiers and will discuss how the different model Tiers can be used to answer practical questions such as characterizing source strengths and risks of groundwater contamination, and derivation of soil screening levels. Illustrative examples of model applications will be presented. As a decision support platform, PFAS-LEACH can improve risk assessment and long-term site management, and will be useful for developing remedial action objectives and for evaluating anticipated impacts of different site remediation approaches at different PFAS-impacted sites.

How to cite: Guo, B., Zeng, J., Brusseau, M., Smith, J., and Ma, M.: PFAS-LEACH: A Comprehensive Decision Support Platform for Modeling PFAS Leaching in Source Zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2928, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2928, 2025.

EGU25-3098 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Modeling PFAS sorption in soils using machine learning 

Amirhossein Ershadi, Joel Fabregat-Palau, Michael Finkel, Anna Rigol, Miquel Vidal, and Peter Grathwohl

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are emerging pollutants of global environmental concern due to their persistence, widespread occurrence, and toxicity. Accurate PFAS sorption data in soils is essential for assessing their fate and transport in the environment; however, current prediction models often lack precision and broader applicability. To address this limitation, we present PFASorptionML, an advanced machine learning (ML)-based tool designed to predict the solid-liquid distribution coefficients (Kd) of 49 PFAS compounds with diverse chemical structures, including ionizable PFAS with environmentally relevant acid dissociation constants (pKa), in soils.

We developed an extensive literature-based sorption dataset comprising 1,274 Kd (PFAS) entries across 47 peer-reviewed studies. This dataset enabled a critical evaluation of the effects of PFAS chain length and functional groups on sorption behavior. This dataset was used to train the ML model, which integrates PFAS-specific properties—such as molecular weight, hydrophobicity, and charge density—with soil-specific properties, including pH, organic carbon content, texture, and cation exchange capacity. Before training the model, gaps in soil property data were addressed using advanced imputation techniques (e.g., K-nearest neighbor), ensuring data completeness and reliability. Sensitivity analysis revealed the dominant role of hydrophobic interactions and the minor contribution of electrostatic interactions in PFAS sorption, highlighting the importance of incorporating these factors into environmental modeling.

Beyond its predictive capabilities, PFASorptionML represents a significant advancement in PFAS modeling for environmental scenarios. It enables the generation of high-resolution European Kd (PFAS) maps by integrating soil property repositories (e.g., LUCAS EU dataset), thereby upscaling laboratory findings to European conditions. Furthermore, PFASorptionML offers a free-to-use online platform for practitioners, supporting risk assessment, groundwater management, and the development of effective remediation strategies for PFAS-contaminated sites.

How to cite: Ershadi, A., Fabregat-Palau, J., Finkel, M., Rigol, A., Vidal, M., and Grathwohl, P.: Modeling PFAS sorption in soils using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3098, 2025.

EGU25-3225 | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Transport of aggregating nanoparticle in porous media: Novel Mathematical Modeling 

Constantinos V. Chrysikopoulos and Vasileios E. Katzourakis

The migration of aggregating nanoparticles in water-saturated, homogeneous porous media with one-dimensional uniform flow was conceptualized through a novel numerical model. Nanoparticles were assumed to be found suspended in the aqueous phase or attached reversibly and/or irreversibly to the solid matrix. The Smoluchowski population balance equation was used to model the process of particle aggregation and was coupled with the advection-dispersion-attachment equation to form a nonlinear transport model. Employing an efficient and precise solver for the population balance equation, coupled with an iterative solver for linear or nonlinear attachment equations, significantly reduced computational time, while maintaining its accuracy. The new numerical model was successfully applied to nanoparticle transport experimental data available in the literature. Conventional colloid transport models may prove to be inadequate in scenarios of high ionic strength where aggregation becomes a dominant process. The proposed model demonstrated exceptional performance under high ionic strength conditions, capturing various physical processes related to nanoparticle transport, including the particle-size-dependent dispersion. Neglecting the aggregation process and relying solely on conventional colloidal transport models, could potentially yield inaccurate results.

How to cite: Chrysikopoulos, C. V. and Katzourakis, V. E.: Transport of aggregating nanoparticle in porous media: Novel Mathematical Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3225, 2025.

EGU25-3326 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Stability and Mobility of Biodegradable Nanoplastics in the Subsurface 

Yingxue Yu and Markus Flury

In agriculture, biodegradable plastic mulch has gained significant attention due to its in-situ degradability and satisfying  agronomic performance. However, these mulches do not degrade instantaneously; instead, they fragment into micro- and nanoplastics, which can persist in soils or migrate off-site via surface runoff or subsurface water flow.  Here, we studied the stability and mobility of biodegradable nanoplastics made from a polybutylene adipate co-terephthalate (PBAT) mulch in both pristine and weathered forms under various environmental conditions. Stability was assessed with aggregation kinetics in NaCl and CaCl2 solutions, and mobility was evaluated under unsaturated flow conditions in sand columns. Additionally, we examined the effects of proteins, i.e., negatively charged bovine serum albumin (BSA) and positively charged lysozyme (LSZ), on the stability and mobility of PBAT nanoplastics.  Results show that pristine PBAT nanoplastics exhibited greater aggregation in CaCl2 compared to NaCl, with critical coagulation concentrations of 20 mM in CaCl2 and 325 mM in NaCl. In contrast, weathered PBAT nanoplastics remained stable in both NaCl and CaCl2 solutions. Unsaturated column experiments revealed high mobility for both pristine and weathered PBAT nanoplastics, consistent with their high stability observed under low ionic strength conditions (i.e., 10 mM NaCl). Protein interactions affected stability and mobility: both BSA and LSZ promoted aggregation of pristine PBAT nanoplastics, with LSZ having a more pronounced effect. Correspondingly, LSZ reduced the mobility of pristine PBAT nanoplastics due to its destabilizing effect.  Our findings suggest that biodegradable nanoplastics derived from plastic mulch are stable and mobile under environmental conditions, posing potential risks of migration within and beyond agricultural systems.  

How to cite: Yu, Y. and Flury, M.: Stability and Mobility of Biodegradable Nanoplastics in the Subsurface, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3326, 2025.

EGU25-3705 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Investigation of the transformation products formed during thermal desorption of PFAS 

Anna Burkhardt, Tobias Junginger, Melanie Schüßler, Christian Zwiener, Sarah Heilemann, and Claus Haslauer

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are contaminants of emerging concern, as they are persistent, ubiquitous, and toxic. They pose a threat to both human health and the environment, therefore efficient remediation strategies are urgently needed. One possible remediation technology to treat contaminated soil is thermal desorption. However, the chemical processes and potential transformation products created during thermal desorption have not been fully assessed. Especially precursor substances, that transform to persistent PFAS substances in the environment, are of interest.

This study investigates the thermal desorption and transformation of PFAS. We developed an experimental stand, where sand and soil, artificially contaminated with various PFAS substances, is heated by a heating rod in a stainless-steel column.  The maximum temperature reached in the column is 450 °C. We hypothesize that during this experiment the PFAS will desorb from the sand and enter the gas phase. Further, we assume that chemical transformation processes will occur, leading to products with shorter chain lenghts. To understand the fate of the PFAS substances, we analyze the gas phase and the concentration of PFAS in the sand before and after the heat application. We use target and non-target approaches to identify transformed products. Furthermore, the decomposition of PFAS is examined by measuring the produced fluoride ions.

Initial experiments with short-chain (PFBA) and long-chain (PFOA, PFOS) PFAS showed that thermal desorption of the substances is taking place in the regions of the column where the boiling temperatures of the individual compounds were exceeded. No transformation products have been found using target analysis to date, however we expect more transformation processes with the next round of experiments, where two precursor substances will be tested. Based on these first results and the coming experiments we expect to enhance our understanding of the chemical processes taking place during thermal desorption. With this knowledge, it will be possible to make well informed decisions and improve the application of thermal desorption remediation strategies for PFAS contaminated soils. 

How to cite: Burkhardt, A., Junginger, T., Schüßler, M., Zwiener, C., Heilemann, S., and Haslauer, C.: Investigation of the transformation products formed during thermal desorption of PFAS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3705, 2025.

EGU25-3952 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Understanding the formation and influence of soil-typical eco-coronas on microplastics through laboratory and field incubation experiments 

Rizwan Khaleel, Markus Rolf, Julian Wagenhofer, Yifan Lu, Hannes Laermanns, Alfons Weig, Frank Nitsche, Matthias Schott, Christian Laforsch, Martin Löder, and Christina Bogner

Microplastics (MPs), ubiquitous in terrestrial environments, are usually covered by an eco-corona (EC) under natural conditions. When mistakenly ingested by soil organisms, MPs could harm their development, reproduction, and survival rates. The EC, a natural layer on MP surfaces, contains organic matter like carbohydrates, proteins, DNA, and compounds like humic and fulvic acids. It strongly influences the transport and behaviour of MPs, by altering their surface properties, thereby affecting their adsorption efficiency. While limited research on EC formation on MP in aquatic environments exists, our understanding of typical ECs in soils is limited. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate the identification, formation, and variation of EC on MPs in floodplain soils, and the physico-chemical changes induced on MP surfaces under different incubation conditions. Polystyrene MPs (600-1000 microns) were incubated with soil samples in cylindrical chambers (mesh size 500 microns) for 4, 8, and 16 weeks in both field (Northern floodplains in Cologne, Germany) and laboratory settings. Laboratory-incubated samples were controlled for temperature and moisture, while the field incubations were left to natural conditions. Additional soil parameters including pH, CN content, grain size, and elemental composition were also measured. After each incubation period, MPs were extracted manually and were analyzed, employing 16S-V4 and ITS1 for metabarcoding and sequencing for attached ECs (bacteria and fungi), ATR-FTIR spectroscopy for polymer-level analysis, and the SEM imaging for visual inspection along with EDS for identifying potential heavy metal attachments on MPs. While the degree of change in the lab samples stayed low, the DNA results in the field samples demonstrated that various bacterial communities formed on MP surfaces during the incubation periods. This communal change could be attributed to the variation in the environmental condition of the incubations. Both incubation settings resulted in intricate fungal structures on MP surfaces, which were also visible during SEM imaging. Potential attachments of heavy metals like Ti, Mn, Zr, Th, and Ag were also identified on incubated MP surfaces. Our findings help uncover the influence of soil organisms on environmental MPs and clarify the formation of EC in soil ecosystems, providing insights into the ecological impacts of MPs.

How to cite: Khaleel, R., Rolf, M., Wagenhofer, J., Lu, Y., Laermanns, H., Weig, A., Nitsche, F., Schott, M., Laforsch, C., Löder, M., and Bogner, C.: Understanding the formation and influence of soil-typical eco-coronas on microplastics through laboratory and field incubation experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3952, 2025.

EGU25-5119 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Biosurfactant-induced PFAS leaching from aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) impacted soil 

Sophie Hibben, Alraune Zech, and Johan van Leeuwen

The development of novel per- and polyfluoroalkyl (PFAS) remediation techniques is critical for the removal of contaminants from soil and water at sites impacted by aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF). This study is the first to explore the feasibility of flushing PFAS with a rhamnolipid biosurfactant solution using column testing and soil from an AFFF-contaminated site. Soil is flushed by tap water alone and a 0.005% rhamnolipid solution. PFAS concentrations in eluate and mass balances are compared for each test. In the first 12 pore volumes, 91% of the total perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) flushed by the rhamnolipid solution was removed, while only 64% of PFOS was flushed in that time by tap water alone. Phosphate leached from soil and PFOS measured in the same eluate had similar concentration patterns, suggesting competitive sorption occurs with negatively charged phosphate, PFOS, and the anionic biosurfactant rhamnolipid. A one-dimensional groundwater transport model confirmed that PFOS retardation (R-values) was lower with the rhamnolipid solution (9.76) than with tap water as the eluent (22.3 ± 0.9). The flushing tests and model both confirm that there is no significant difference in flushing PFAS with a biosurfactant for PFAS compounds other than PFOS. The decreased retardation and the faster elution of PFOS by the rhamnolipid solution indicate that it is more efficient at removing PFOS from soil than water alone.

How to cite: Hibben, S., Zech, A., and van Leeuwen, J.: Biosurfactant-induced PFAS leaching from aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) impacted soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5119, 2025.

PFAS are emerging contaminants that have been widespread in the environment. A growing body of site investigations suggests that PFAS have accumulated significantly in soils at contamination sites, threatening to contaminate the groundwater underneath. Quantifying PFAS leaching in soils and mass discharge to groundwater is therefore critical for characterizing, managing, and mitigating long-term contamination risks.

Many PFAS are surfactants that adsorb at air–water and solid–water interfaces, which leads to complex retention of PFAS in soils. Soils have abundant air-water interfaces (AWI), which generally consist of two types: one is associated with the bulk water between soil grains (i.e., bulk AWI) and the other arises from the thin water films covering the soil grains. The latter contributes to over 90% of AWIs in soils under many field-relevant wetting conditions. This talk will discuss two unique complexities introduced by thin water films for PFAS fate and transport in soils: 1) slow mass transfer along the thin water films affects the accessibility of the water films and the film-associated AWI by PFAS; and 2) the interactions between the solid surface and air-water interface change the chemical potential and adsorption capacity of PFAS at the air-water interface. Both phenomena can substantially modify the overall retention and transport behavior of PFAS in soils, which have important implications for quantifying the risks of PFAS contamination to groundwater at the field scale.

How to cite: Guo, B., Chen, S., and Zhang, W.: Thin water films in controlling PFAS fate and transport in soils: Interfacial processes, pore-scale modeling, and upscaling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5223, 2025.

EGU25-5313 | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Modeling and Experimental Validation of Aggregating Nanoparticle Transport with Nonlinear Attachment 

Vasileios Katzourakis and Constantinos Chrysikopoulos

A conceptual mathematical model was designed to simulate the transport behavior of migrating nanoparticles in homogeneous, water-saturated, one-dimensional porous media. The model accounts for nanoparticle collisions that lead to aggregation and considers nanoparticles as either reversibly or irreversibly attached to the solid matrix of the porous medium or suspended in the aqueous phase. These attached particles can influence further deposition by promoting or hindering it, leading to either ripening or blocking phenomena. The aggregation process is described using the Smoluchowski Population Balance Equation (PBE), which is coupled with the advection-dispersion-attachment equation (ADA), resulting in a system of partial differential equations governing nanoparticle migration in porous media. An efficient finite volume solver was utilized to solve the PBE, optimizing computational efficiency by reducing the number of equations while maintaining accuracy. The model was validated against experimental nanoparticle transport data available in the literature and successfully simulated experimental data exhibiting nonlinear attachment behaviors, such as ripening and blocking, demonstrating its ability to capture the multiple physical mechanisms governing nanoparticle transport

How to cite: Katzourakis, V. and Chrysikopoulos, C.: Modeling and Experimental Validation of Aggregating Nanoparticle Transport with Nonlinear Attachment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5313, 2025.

EGU25-7315 | Orals | HS8.1.1 | Highlight

Advanced Nanoremediation: Stabilization and Transport Control of Iron Nanoparticles for Contaminant Treatment 

Rajandrea Sethi, Carlo Bianco, and Tiziana Tosco

Nanoremediation involves the injection of reactive nanomaterials into the subsurface to promote the in situ degradation of pollutants. This technique is emerging as a promising alternative to conventional remediation methods, such as Pump & Treat, Permeable Reactive Barriers, aiir sparging, etc. Due to their nanoscale size, iron-based nanoparticles—such as zero-valent iron (nZVI) and iron oxides—exhibit high reactivity and can create reactive zones capable of treating a wide range of contaminants near their source. However, despite their efficacy in laboratory-scale degradation tests, the application of iron-based micro- and nanoparticles at the field scale remains challenging. Specifically, zero-valent iron particles tend to have limited mobility due to agglomeration caused by magnetic interactions, whereas iron oxides can be overly mobile, leading to the unintended dispersion of reactive material and bypassing the contamination zones.

This presentation will address two key approaches to overcome these limitations. First, we explore the use of green biopolymers to achieve both kinetic and electrosteric stabilization of zero-valent iron nanoparticles, enabling the formulation of highly stable and injectable nanofluids. Second, we introduce a patented strategy for tuning the mobility of iron oxides to precisely target contamination sources while minimizing their dispersion in the subsurface. These approaches are optimized using a hybrid experimental and modeling framework, with upscaled models serving as valuable tools for the design of field-scale applications.

Finally, we will present an innovative and patented in situ synthesis process that overcomes the mobility issues associated with conventional nanoremediation by generating nanoparticles directly within the contaminated zone thanks to the reaction of liquid precursors injected in the target area. This novel approach represents a significant step forward in enhancing the efficiency and feasibility of nanoremediation for groundwater treatment.

How to cite: Sethi, R., Bianco, C., and Tosco, T.: Advanced Nanoremediation: Stabilization and Transport Control of Iron Nanoparticles for Contaminant Treatment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7315, 2025.

Microplastics impact marine and terrestrial ecology as vectors of chemical pollution and are widespread contaminants in beach sediment. Wind tunnel studies suggest that microplastics are more easily transported by wind than mineral sand grains, and hence coastal dunes ought to be relatively enriched as a local accumulation sink of microplastics blown in from the beach, relative to the sub-tidal marine environment.

To test this hypothesis, concentrations and polymer assemblage of sand-sized microplastics in surface sediment were compared between intertidal beach and coastal dune samples at two different UK coasts (Wales and SE England), using FT-IR microscopy.

Results show no differences in polymer composition, diversity, or abundance between beach (marine) and dune (aeolian) sediments. Average concentrations reached 100s of MPs/kg and their composition was dominated by rayon and polyester fibres. The lack of expected microplastics enrichment of the coastal dunes by preferential aeolian transport from the adjacent beach is attributed to the severe supply-limitation of these particles at the sediment surface interface, compared with the transport-limited movement of the wind-blown mineral sand.

How to cite: Baas, A. C. and Ormane, R.: Aeolian transport of microplastics from the sub-tidal beach surface into coastal dunes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8903, 2025.

EGU25-9184 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Microplastic Lateral Transport in Agricultural Slopes: A Field-Based Approach  

Qi Liu, Loes van Schaik, and Jantiene Baartman

Microplastics (MPs, diameter < 5mm) are pervasive, persistent environmental contaminants. MPs enter agricultural soil via direct sources, such as plastic mulches and irrigation pipes, as well as indirect sources, including compost and sewage sludge. Once in soil, MPs can be incorporated into soil aggregates, altering soil structure and hydro-physical properties (e.g., bulk density, aggregate stability, water retention curve). These changes could potentially limit or enhance the transport of MPs in soil as well as their detachment and transport with runoff and erosion. Despite their significance, research on MPs transport on agricultural fields via runoff and erosion remains limited, and detailed empirical data is missing. 

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of MPs transport on agricultural slopes during natural rainfall events, focusing on quantifying lateral MPs transport with runoff and erosion, assessing MPs enrichment or depletion in eroded sediment, exploring the preferential flow patterns of MPs (whether free or sediment-bound), and comparing transport behaviors of various MPs polymer types. To achieve this, we will construct three enclosed soil flumes (22 m long and 2 m wide) in hilly south-Limburg, the Netherlands. From April to October 2025, we will use ISCO automatic samplers, attached at the outlet of the soil flumes, to capture runoff and eroded sediment at six-minute intervals. For each rainfall event, the runoff and eroded sediment will be continuously collected and quantified. Additionally, MPs in runoff water and eroded sediment will be extracted and analyzed respectively using μ-FTIR to determine the MPs polymer types and particle numbers.  

This project is currently in the initial stages, and we anticipate installing the soil flumes in April 2025, followed by collecting and analyzing the data as described, with results expected to be available at the beginning of 2026. The expected findings aim to bridge the gap in empirical data regarding MPs' lateral transport in agricultural slopes during natural rainfall events. We will use this dataset to incorporate MPs as a pollutant in erosion models, enabling the estimation of their transport under various scenarios. The project will also provide insights into the potential for agricultural soils to act as sources or sinks of MPs pollution.  

How to cite: Liu, Q., van Schaik, L., and Baartman, J.: Microplastic Lateral Transport in Agricultural Slopes: A Field-Based Approach , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9184, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9184, 2025.

EGU25-9188 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Effect of Physicochemical Parameters on Sorption of Graphene Oxide Nanoparticles in Porous Media 

Swetha Padmanabhan, Sauymen Guha, and Richa Ojha

Graphene Oxide (GO) is a two-dimensional carbon nanomaterial that has witnessed rapid increase in industrial production in the last decade and is likely to reach the subsurface through disposal of e-waste. Recent laboratory studies have also suggested that GO nanoparticles (GONPs) may also be used for insitu remediation of groundwater contaminated with toxic organic compounds and with the increasing GO production GONPs are expected to reach subsurface formations. The objective of this study is to understand the adsorption of graphene oxide nanoparticles (GONPs) onto quartz sand in pH range of 5.5 to 9 at 25 °C. Effects of natural organic matter in the form of Humic acid (HA) and Fulvic acid (FA) were also studied. Batch sorption experiments were conducted under varying concentrations of GO and quartz sand. Amongst several elutant studied for desorption and recovery of adsorbed GONPs from the quartz sand, deionized water was the most effective. The equilibrium attachment of GONPs onto quartz sand was analyzed using Linear, Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin adsorption isotherm models. Based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), the Langmuir isotherm provided the best fit to the adsorption data in the presence and absence of organic matter. The experimental results suggested that adsorption of GONP is affected by pH and presence of organic content. The highest adsorption capacity of 0.175 mg/g was observed at pH 6, while the lowest adsorption capacity of 0.0256 mg/g was recorded at pH 9. The maximum adsorption capacity of GO onto quartz sand at pH 8 showed no variation in the presence of FA or HA at a concentration of 12 mg/L. However, at higher concentrations of FA and HA, the adsorption of GONPs onto quartz sand increased in the presence of Humic Acid (HA) but decreased in the presence of Fulvic Acid (FA). Therefore, the remediation strategies need to consider the effects of pH and organic matter on the transport of GONPs in the subsurface. Significant desorption with the deionized water also suggests potential for mobilization of the adsorbed GONPs to the aquifer.

How to cite: Padmanabhan, S., Guha, S., and Ojha, R.: Effect of Physicochemical Parameters on Sorption of Graphene Oxide Nanoparticles in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9188, 2025.

Organotin (OT) compounds are essential in various industrial applications, but they pose significant risks to both the environment and human health. The toxicity and transport dynamics of OTs depend on their specific chemical forms— i.e., the type and number of organic substituents—resulting in distinct toxicity profiles and varying affinities for environmental colloids. These colloids-species interactions collectively influence the mobility, bioavailability, and health impacts of OTs. To date, however, most studies addressed speciation and colloidal characterization separately; thus, the data on the combined determinations of the organometallic species in association with their carrier colloidal fractions remain largely elusive. Here, we present a comprehensive account of method development, application, and validation to quantitatively characterize the adsorption dynamics of 10 different OT species on natural colloidal particles (<500 nm). Our approach utilizes asymmetrical flow field-flow fractionation (AF4) coupled with inductively coupled plasma time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ICP-ToF-MS), achieving detection limits for Sn-equivalent concentrations as low as 6.0 ng/L. The method effectively separates free OT species from those bound to colloids, facilitates the fractionation of particles ranging from a few nm up to 500 nm, and enables the determination of fraction-specific OT interactions. This unique dataset offers comparative insights into the interactions of 10 OT species, representing a significant advancement in understanding species-colloid interactions. Our findings have important implications for assessing the distribution and mobility patterns of toxic organometallic species in surface waters, groundwater, sediments, and soils. The approach can be applied to an array of organometallics species (e.g., organolead, organomercury), generating essential experimental data that are critical for informed risk assessments and the improvement of regulatory frameworks.

How to cite: Azimzada, A. and Meermann, B.: AF4/ICP-ToF-MS for the investigation of species-specific adsorption of organometallic contaminants on natural colloidal particles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10240, 2025.

EGU25-10646 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Influences of land use and depth profile on the characteristics of microplastics in agricultural soils 

Kelsey Smyth, Léo Dourneau, Mikaël Kedzierski, Bruno Tassin, and Rachid Dris

Terrestrial soils are an environmental compartment in which microplastics are known to accumulate. Compared to the surface water of global oceans, soils contain more microplastics, however they are less well studied to date. In particular, the applications of wastewater and corresponding sludge as fertilizers are a major source of microplastics to agricultural soil, as they include washing machine effluent which is often concentrated in polyester fibres. Other relevant microplastic sources include plastic mulching, netting, greenhouses, plastic drainage pipes, and atmospheric deposition. The characteristics and transfer dynamics of microplastics between different environmental compartments including soil in the same agricultural watershed are not well understood. Additionally, very limited information is known on the stock of microplastics in soils. In this work, a long-term French research site, the Orgeval watershed (104 km2), was sampled for soil. This watershed, located slightly beyond the extremities of the Eastern Parisian suburbs, is composed largely of intensive cereal crops and minimal urban zones. Nine locations within the watershed were composite sampled at the soil surface including locations both upstream and at the watershed outlet. These soil samples were derived from various land use areas including agricultural zones such as tilled or undisturbed agricultural fields, greenhouses, and drainage canal riverbanks, plus soil in forested areas and an urban green space. Of these land use types, greenhouse soils demonstrated the highest concentrations of microplastics in surface soils up to 11,200 MPs/kg, where polyethylene and polypropylene made up the majority of the polymers identified. In comparison, forest soils contained far fewer microplastics up to a concentration of 880 MPs/kg. Soil cores were also collected from two of these sites down to a depth of 60 cm, the typical maximum tilling depth used in this watershed. The most noticeable concentration decrease was observed between soil samples collected at the soil surface versus a further 20 cm below it. This study helps better understand the sources of microplastics as well as their fate in agricultural soils.

How to cite: Smyth, K., Dourneau, L., Kedzierski, M., Tassin, B., and Dris, R.: Influences of land use and depth profile on the characteristics of microplastics in agricultural soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10646, 2025.

Understanding the accumulation and behavior of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in subsurface environments is crucial for effective environmental management. This study investigates the distribution and sorption dynamics of PFASs in Swedish offshore sediments, with a particular focus on the Bothnian Gulf in the northern Baltic Sea, where elevated PFAS concentrations were observed, reaching up to 33 μg kg⁻¹ in the Bothnian Sea and 27 μg kg⁻¹ in the Bothnian Bay for ∑PFASs. Through sediment sampling, sorption batch experiments, and partitioning analyses, the role of sediment properties from different regions in PFAS fate and transport was examined. Sediment-pore water partitioning coefficients (Kd) were particularly high in some regions, particularly for long-chain PFASs in the Baltic Proper. However, contrary to initial expectations, sediments in the Bothnian Gulf did not exhibit consistently higher sorption capacity despite their elevated PFAS levels, suggesting distinct, unidentified PFAS sources in this region. Kd values varied across locations, with the highest values observed in the southern Baltic Sea, specifically the Baltic Proper and the Southern Baltic, where the organic carbon content was also highest, ranging from 2.2% in the North Sea to 12.7% in the Baltic Proper. While organic carbon strongly influenced PFAS sorption, no consistent trends fully explained the disparities between the northern and southern Baltic regions. The elevated PFAS concentrations in the northern Baltic Sea, despite the estimated limited sorption capacity, highlight the need for further comprehensive source identification and monitoring, particularly of tributary inputs and transboundary influences, to address regional contamination. This study underscores the criticality of integrating source characterization with fate and transport studies, to effectively manage and tackle PFASs in soil-groundwater systems.

How to cite: Niarchos, G., Ruin, E., and Ahrens, L.: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in Baltic sediments: Role of sediment-pore water partitioning on their distribution and fate , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10675, 2025.

EGU25-11480 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Tracing Contaminants: Assessing the Release of Trace Compounds via Managed Aquifer Recharge 

Dibyanshu Dibyanshu and Traugott Scheytt

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is a vital water management strategy that infiltrates surface water or wastewater effluent into aquifers through soil and sediment. However, this process can introduce pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs) and their metabolites, posing environmental risks. This study investigates the transport behavior of four selected PhACs—caffeine, carbamazepine, diclofenac, and ibuprofen—under neutral pH conditions using column experiments in both unsaturated and saturated porous media. PhACs and a tracer solution were introduced into the system, and experimental results were simulated using the CXTFIT model to determine retardation and degradation factors. Experimental findings indicate high mobility for carbamazepine and ibuprofen across both unsaturated and saturated conditions. Ibuprofen behaved similarly to the tracer with a retardation factor of ~1 and negligible degradation, while carbamazepine showed slight retardation and tailing effects showing higher persistence in the water. Diclofenac significantly degrades in saturated media (44% recovery) but increases release under unsaturated conditions (98% recovery). This indicates the release of diclofenac through the vadose zone but can undergo degradation and retardation in aquifers. Caffeine displayed high retardation and degradation under both conditions independent of the moisture content during transport. These findings highlight the differential transport of PhACs during MAR showing contaminant release to the groundwater, emphasizing the need for effective management practices to mitigate contamination risks and ensure groundwater quality.

How to cite: Dibyanshu, D. and Scheytt, T.: Tracing Contaminants: Assessing the Release of Trace Compounds via Managed Aquifer Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11480, 2025.

EGU25-11492 | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Modelling the transport of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from source zones to recipients – challenges and model developments 

Fritjof Fagerlund, Robert Earon, Dan Berggren Kleja, Agnes Zúniga Ekenberg, and Mamata Das

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) constitute an increasing problem for water resources and aquatic ecosystems globally. PFAS are extremely persistent, many are also mobile in water and can transport long distances in the groundwater. Highly contaminated source zones for PFAS exist all over the world in connection to firefighting training areas of rescue services and airports. Modelling tools to predict the subsurface transport of PFAS are important both for understanding the transport, assess risk and design of remediation measures such as in-situ stabilization using sorbents.

PFAS have several properties that distinguish them from many other pollutants. For PFAS reactive transport modelling, several challenges and development needs therefore exist. PFAS are surface-active substances and are attracted to interfaces between air and water, which affects retention in the unsaturated zone. Hundreds of PFAS with different transport properties may be present in typical PFAS-pollution source zones. Many of these substances can be partially degradable (so-called precursors) and break down until a perfluorinated substance is formed. This typically increases mobility, and can be critical for how quickly PFAS leach from the unsaturated zone to groundwater. The different PFAS can also compete for sorption sites, which may increase the mobility of some PFAS and therefore affect both the risks associated with PFAS transport and the efficacy of remediation strategies such as sorbent amendments.

In two recently started research projects, we aim to test and develop practically useful models for subsurface PFAS transport from source zone to recipient. In modelling tools such as GMS/MODFLOW, we have added capability in the transport module to account for competition effects during sorption and we are currently investigating how degradation of precursors coupled to the leaching of PFAS from the unsaturated zone and should best be included in the modelling.

How to cite: Fagerlund, F., Earon, R., Berggren Kleja, D., Zúniga Ekenberg, A., and Das, M.: Modelling the transport of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from source zones to recipients – challenges and model developments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11492, 2025.

EGU25-11862 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

Field Application of Activated Carbon for PFAS Immobilization in Agricultural Soil 

Hue Nguyen, Tobias Junginger, Frank Thomas Lange, Nadine Löffler, Simon Kleinknecht, and Claus Haslauer

PFAS contamination from soil additives like biosolids or compost poses a long-term risk to human health and the environment. Remediation is essential for sustainable long-term land-use.  Managing PFAS leaching from soil to groundwater is challenging due to their persistence, complex behavior, and the large volume of soil involved. Immobilization techniques have shown promise for in-situ PFAS remediation, but their application is site-specific, and few studies detail the methods or assess their long-term effectiveness.

This study investigates the role of activated carbon in immobilizing a PFAS source within the vadose zone of an agricultural field in Rastatt, southern Germany, which is contaminated by paper-sludge biosolids applied between 1999 and 2008. The treatment applied powdered activated carbon, which was mixed in-situ into a 50 cm soil layer located between 50 and 100 cm below the surface, with subsoil and topsoil layers acting as coverage. The primary objective is to mitigate PFAS leaching into the groundwater and to monitor this effect over 2 years. Site characterization included hydrological assessments and PFAS profiling through soil and soil pore water sampling and depth-specific analysis. Field monitoring involved installing groundwater monitoring wells and suction lysimeters in different locations in the treated and reference parcels.

Our site characterization confirmed aged contamination with long-chain PFAS and precursors, but no short-chain compounds, across the 6 m soil profile from the surface to the groundwater. Polyfluoroalkyl phosphate esters (PAPs) were the most abundant precursors. Over 95% of the PFAS contamination or nearly 1 mg/kg was concentrated in the topsoil (0-30 cm), with PAPs contributing 75% of the total. Some precursors were detected in deeper soil layers, including the capillary fringe, suggesting more complex leaching patterns than previously understood.

Preliminary field results after one year monitoring revealed mixed outcomes: (i) total PFAS concentrations in soil pore water below the treated layer was reduced by 93%, with reductions for most individual substances ranging from 49% to 100%; (ii) concentrations of key substances of concern, as outlined in German groundwater guidelines (LAWA 2017), were reduced to levels considered safe for human health; (iii) while substances like PFPrA and PFTrA were no longer detected, others such as PFDA, PFUnDA, PFOS, and FOSA showed slightly increased concentrations. Over the same period, groundwater contamination levels were stabilizing or declining.

The field monitoring is ongoing, but the initial findings highlight the potential of immobilization techniques using activated carbon and in-situ implementation to reduce PFAS leaching. The study emphasizes the need for detailed analyses, comprehensive field trials, and long-term monitoring to improve understanding and application of these methods. This approach could be adapted for other contaminated sites, such as areas affected by fire-fighting foam.

How to cite: Nguyen, H., Junginger, T., Lange, F. T., Löffler, N., Kleinknecht, S., and Haslauer, C.: Field Application of Activated Carbon for PFAS Immobilization in Agricultural Soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11862, 2025.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have become a major environmental concern due to their widespread presence in ecosystems, even in remote and pristine areas. These substances, resulting from extensive use and improper disposal practices, pose a threat to the environment and drinking water sources. Effective remediation strategies are critical to mitigate PFAS contamination, particularly in soils. One promising technique for PFAS remediation is the stabilization of PFAS in the subsurface using colloidal activated carbon (CAC). However, a deeper understanding of this approach is essential for its optimization. Additionally, the transport behaviour of PFAS in soil and groundwater is complex due to the diverse mobility properties of individual PFAS compounds and various sorption mechanisms. This study investigates the influence of different sorption isotherms on model predictions of PFAS transport in CAC-treated soil columns, with a focus on both equilibrium and kinetic sorption processes. A one-dimensional numerical model, developed using MODFLOW and MT3DMS, simulates a column experiment to assess PFAS transport dynamics and compare model predictions to experimental observations. The results indicate that accounting for non-equilibrium sorption processes is needed to match the observed asymmetric breakthrough curves and pronounced tailing of PFAS in the leaching experiments. This suggests that kinetic sorption plays a significant role for PFAS transport in CAC-amended soil and highlights the importance of considering kinetic sorption in the modelling and remediation of PFAS contamination in soils.

How to cite: Das, M. and Fagerlund, F.: Modelling investigation of the sorption dynamics of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in activated carbon amended soil columns , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12523, 2025.

Predicting the transport and fate of nanoparticles in the subsurface requires understanding of their interactions with collector surfaces. We report here on the effect of the less-studied hydrophobic interactions, which are relevant to the fate of hydrophobic nano-colloids (i.e., nanoplastics) and their attachment onto solid-water (SWI) and air-water interfaces (AWI) in groundwater. Using a model nanoplastic (charge-stabilized, ethyl cellulose nanoparticles) and a model porous medium (regular array of collectors in a pore network etched on glass), we demonstrate the dominance of hydrophobic attraction over electrostatic repulsion when an otherwise hydrophilic glass surface is rendered hydrophobic via coating with octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS). An empirical model of hydrophobic interactions between dissimilar surfaces (Yoon et al., 1997), informed by contact angle measurements, explains the irreversible attachment of ethyl cellulose nanoparticles on OTS-coated glass surfaces, which is confirmed by atomic force microscopy. The same model explains the irreversible attachment of the model nanoplastic on AWIs, which is revealed by fluorescence microscopy. Transport experiments in microfluidic pore networks etched on glass further demonstrate the irreversible attachment of ethyl cellulose nanoparticles on hydrophobic collector surfaces (SWI or AWI) even in the absence of salt. These findings provide novel insights into the mechanisms affecting the transport and fate of nano-colloids in subsurface aquatic environments and lend further support to the conclusion that contact angle can serve to quantify the magnitude of hydrophobic interactions between nanoparticles and collector surfaces.

How to cite: Rahham, Y. and Ioannidis, M. A.: Hydrophobic Interactions Drive the Attachment of a Model Nanoplastic on Hydrophobic Collector Surfaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12697, 2025.

There has been a rapid increase in the number of studies on both trash and microplastics in recent years, with little data standardization. However, as data is being produced by a wide range of practitioners with differing study goals, researchers adhering to a single data standard may not be realistic. Post-hoc data harmonization is a pathway that transforms non-standardized data from prior studies into harmonized, comparable databases. Harmonization, however, is hindered by the vast number of categorical descriptors used to describe trash and microplastics (thousands or more), making manual harmonization efforts labor intensive. Additionally, non-semantic data misalignment also exists as different studies measure plastic occurrence via different metrics (particle count, mass, volume, etc.) and evaluate differing size ranges that must be rescaled to make meaningful comparisons between concentrations. We created Microplastics and Trash Cleaning and Harmonization (MaTCH), an AI automated algorithm utilizing manually developed databases that describe relationships between categorical descriptors of trash and microplastic particles. MaTCH also integrates other data harmonization techniques to address non-semantic issues of misalignment. All steps are combined into a single algorithm that can harmonize datasets from studies using various nomenclature, study methods, data formats, and reporting metrics. MaTCH is available as an open-source web tool for the research community to rapidly and accurately leverage existing data from trash and microplastic studies to better perform meta-analyses and make more meaningful assessments of data trends. By providing MaTCH as a live web-tool, we are able to include data from new and emerging studies to improve algorithm performance and keep up with the rapid pace of discovery. In a field as labor intensive as plastics research, we believe this may greatly expedite future discovery.

How to cite: Hapich, H., Cowger, W., and Gray, A. B.: Microplastics and Trash Cleaning and Harmonization (MaTCH): Semantic Data Ingestion and Harmonization Using Artificial Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13062, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13062, 2025.

EGU25-13264 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Transformations of Microplastics in Biosolids Through Hydrothermal Carbonization: A Morphological SEM Study 

Zuzanna Prus, Klaudia Szkadłubowicz, Joanna Mikusińska, Krzysztof Berniak, Urszula Stachewicz, Joanna Chwiej, Katarzyna Styszko, and Małgorzata Wilk

Hydrothermal Carbonization (HTC) has emerged as a promising technology for treating biosolids. Recently, HTC has gained significant attention in mitigating Microplastic contamination [1]. This study investigates the impact of HTC on the morphology and distribution of Microplastics in biosolids by using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) as a key analytical tool. Biosolid samples were subjected to HTC at three different temperatures:  200, 210, and 220 °C and autogenous pressure to assess the structural transformations of Microplastic. Polymer particles were extracted by 15% H2O2 chemical digestion, separated by density using saturated CaCl2 solution and filtered by anodic alumina membrane microfilters. It has been proven that the HTC process causes significant morphological alterations in Microplastics, which are dependent on the severity of the HTC process parameters [1]. Based on previous research, higher temperatures (>220 °C) promote the decomposition and embrittlement of Microplastics the most, reducing particle size and affecting their chemical composition [2]. In this study, the SEM analysis was applied to assess morphological changes, as it can be used to evaluate Microplastic transformations under hydrothermal conditions [3].  After that, the interaction between Microplastics and biosolid matrices during HTC was explored, highlighting the encapsulation and immobilisation of residual particles in hydrochars. This study contributes to the understanding of Microplastic behaviour under hydrothermal conditions and supports the adoption of HTC as an innovative solution for the management of sewage sludge.

Acknowledgements: This research project was supported by the programme "Excellence Initiative – Research University" for the AGH University of Krakow, Poland. The research was partially supported by Research Subsidy AGH 16.16.210.476.

References:

[1] Prus, Z., Wilk, M. Microplastics in Sewage Sludge: Worldwide Presence in Biosolids, Environmental Impact, Identification Methods and Possible Routes of Degradation, Including the Hydrothermal Carbonization Process. Energies 2024, 17, 4219. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174219

[2] Xu, Z., Bai, X. Microplastic Degradation in Sewage Sludge by Hydrothermal Carbonization: Efficiency and Mechanisms. Chemosphere 2022, 297, 134203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2022.134203

[3] Akaniro, I. R., Zhang, R., Tsang, C. H. M., Wang, P., Yang, Z., & Zhao, J. Exploring the potential of hydrothermal treatment for microplastics removal in digestate. ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering 2024, 12, 38, 14187–14199. https://doi.org/10.1021/acssuschemeng.4c04124

How to cite: Prus, Z., Szkadłubowicz, K., Mikusińska, J., Berniak, K., Stachewicz, U., Chwiej, J., Styszko, K., and Wilk, M.: Transformations of Microplastics in Biosolids Through Hydrothermal Carbonization: A Morphological SEM Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13264, 2025.

EGU25-13522 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

How Macroporous Soil Heterogeneities Influence the Transport and Retention of PFASs in the Vadose Zone: A Controlled Laboratory Study 

Elisabeth Fries, Kamini Singha, Tissa Illangasekare, and Christopher Higgins

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have received increasing attention in the last two decades due to the gathered knowledge about their risks to the environment and human health. The processes that contribute to the transport of PFASs contamination in the environment from the source to groundwater need to be better understood to implement effective mitigation strategies reducing the risk of the most common pathway of PFASs exposure to humans, drinking PFASs-contaminated tap water. Previous studies have already pointed out sorption of PFASs to soil surfaces as well as to the air-water interface (AWI) under unsaturated conditions. Additionally, it is known that physical heterogeneities, such as macropores in soils originating, for example, from earthworms or decayed roots, have an impact on the retention and transport of solutes. The relatively rapid preferential flow through the macropore channels interacts with the slow flow and diffusion in the soil matrix, affecting the chemical breakthrough. This influence of these macroscopic physical heterogeneities and the related hydrodynamics on the transport of PFASs in soil has not been fully elucidated, requiring controlled laboratory studies.

Our study aims to fill this scientific gap using column experiments where breakthrough curves (BTCs) from homogenously packed porous media are compared with those including artificial macropores. In preliminary experiments we were able to prove the primary hypothesis that the macropore configurations, defined by the diameter and length, affect the BTCs. It is expected that PFASs transport in sand under unsaturated experiences retardation caused by sorption only to the AWI, meaning that the sorption of PFASs is only controlled by the water saturation. Modeling the experimental BTCs helps to validate our conceptual model – derived from the column experiments - of the interactions of PFASs sorption and release from the double domain media (sand vs macropore).

This work presents the preliminary data and findings to test our hypothesis on the effect of macropore configuration on PFASs BTCs and provides a basis for further work with field-collected undisturbed soil containing macropores in a natural configuration.

How to cite: Fries, E., Singha, K., Illangasekare, T., and Higgins, C.: How Macroporous Soil Heterogeneities Influence the Transport and Retention of PFASs in the Vadose Zone: A Controlled Laboratory Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13522, 2025.

Injection of colloidal activated carbon (CAC) into the subsurface is an innovative low-cost technology for remediation of legacy and emerging contaminants. It is typically used as a permeable barrier for removing contaminants via sorption and/or followed by microbial/chemical degradation. In addition, CAC has also been used as a catalyst for oxidative degradation of organic contaminants as well as a carrier for subsurface delivery of nano zerovalent iron. A growing application of CAC in the subsurface is its use for sorption and plume control of per-/polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS). With a growing suite of remediation technologies for PFAS, CAC offers the advantage of not producing unknown and/or toxic intermediates while limiting further spread of PFAS in the subsurface. The performance of CAC largely depends on its ability to transport to and deposit at the desired location in the contaminated aquifer under environmentally relevant groundwater conditions. Two such conditions of utmost interest are: (1) injection of CAC with or without downgradient injection of CaCl₂ which restricts CAC mobility by aggregation and (2) multiple injections of CAC in the event of breakthrough of sorbed contaminants. Under these conditions, variations in CaCl₂ concentrations over time are expected due to its potential post-injection downstream migration as well as potential changes in hydraulic conductivity from repeated CAC injections. Thus, it is critical to understand how these conditions impact retention, release, and remobilization of not only the CAC but also of the sorbed contaminants. Our study has examined the effects of input CAC concentration, transient changes in CaCl₂ concentration, and multiple injections of CAC on its transport and deposition in 1-D saturated sand columns. The breakthrough curves and retention profiles generated for the CAC in this study are primary inputs for 1-D transport models which are necessary for prediction of CAC mobility in groundwater.

How to cite: Ndubueze, E., Boparai, H., and Sleep, B.: Transport and Deposition of Colloidal Activated Carbon (CAC) in Saturated Sand Columns: Impacts of input CAC concentration, transient ionic strength, and multiple CAC injections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14017, 2025.

EGU25-14104 | Orals | HS8.1.1

PFAS adsorption to air-water interfaces: Effects of velocity and PFAS concentration 

Kevin Mumford, Julia Barnes-James, David Patch, and Kela Weber

Understanding how per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are transported in soil and groundwater is critical to site characterization, monitoring, risk assessment, and remediation planning.  This includes an understanding of PFAS retention and release associated with adsorption to air-water interfaces, which is particularly important for transport through the vadose zone.  Many previous laboratory studies have focused on individual PFAS with experiments conducted over a narrow range of concentrations and pore-water velocities.  However, the effects of PFAS mixtures, concentrations and velocities are important to extend our understanding, and the application of numerical models, to realistic site conditions.

In this study, a series of laboratory experiments was conducted using one-dimensional sand-packed columns (40 cm × 5 cm dia.).  Trapped air bubbles were emplaced in the sand (quasi-saturated conditions) by sequential drainage and imbibition.  Similar to fluctuations in the water table, this emplacement technique was used to create immobile air-water interfaces that are uniformly distributed throughout the column and are readily accessible to flowing water.  Each experiment included separate injections of non-reactive tracer (NaCl) and PFAS solutions through both water-saturated and quasi-saturated columns.  A clean, low organic carbon sand was used to eliminate solid-phase sorption (verified through comparison of non-reactive tracer and PFAS breakthrough in the water-saturated columns) and to isolate the effect of air-water interfaces.  Experiments were conducted using single-component solutions of PFOS over a range of concentrations (2 to 1000 μg/L) and pore-water velocities (0.8 to 2.6 cm/day).  Experiments were also conducted using diluted aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) solutions containing PFOS. 

The results showed that PFOS breakthrough was significantly delayed in the presence of trapped air bubbles, and that breakthrough varied considerably with concentration and velocity.  Greater retardation occurred generally at lower PFAS concentrations and slower velocities.  However, the change in retardation due to a change in velocity was sensitive to concentration, with greater changes occurring for lower concentrations.  PFOS breakthrough was also affected by the presence of other PFAS and surface active components in AFFF, with PFOS in the diluted AFFF arriving earlier than expected for an equivalent concentration of PFOS alone.  Mixture effects were also observed in the breakthrough of other PFAS in AFFF, particularly concentration overshoot (effluent concentration temporarily greater than the influent concentration) of some less surface active PFAS.  The results highlight the need for more comprehensive models of PFAS transport that incorporate non-ideal and competitive behaviour to capture processes occurring in complex field scenarios.

How to cite: Mumford, K., Barnes-James, J., Patch, D., and Weber, K.: PFAS adsorption to air-water interfaces: Effects of velocity and PFAS concentration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14104, 2025.

EGU25-14253 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Site-Specific Attenuation Factor Estimation for Arsenic in Vadose Zone: A Data-Driven Framework Incorporating Soil Properties and Wet-Dry Cycles 

Tho Huu Huynh Tran, Sang Huyn Kim, Jaeshik Chung, and Seunghak Lee

Arsenic (As) contamination threatens public health as it migrates from soil surface to groundwater through the vadose zone. The attenuation factor (AF), defined as the ratio of initial As concentration to maximum concentration reaching the groundwater, quantifies As retention in vadose zone. While the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommends a default AF value of 1, this approach overlooks site-specific attenuation capacity of soils, potentially overestimating contamination. To improve As risk assessment, tailored datasets of AF for As that consider local soil variability are essential. The transport of As in vadose zone is often modeled by the Mobile-Immobile Model (MIM), which effectively accounts for the mass transfer within the stagnant water regime in the vadose zone. However, the lack of site-specific datasets for MIM-based transport parameters and the overlook of wet-dry cycle effects hinder accurately applying attenuation factor to As risk assessments. This study aimed to: (1) develop regression models to predict MIM-based solute transport parameters and As remobilization under repeated wet-dry cycles using soil properties, and (2) integrate these models into a comprehensive framework to estimate AF values for soils in South Korea.

First, we compiled 129 published data points, covering diverse soil textures, bulk densities, and MIM-based solute transport parameters such as mobile water content, dispersivity, and mass transfer coefficients. This dataset was used to train Random Forest (RF) regression models, where soil texture and bulk density served as input variables, and MIM-based solute transport parameters were the outputs. Second, we conducted experiments using 22 soil columns with varying organic matter content, iron content, particle size distribution, and bulk density to assess the influence of soil heterogeneity on As remobilization under repeated wet-dry cycles. Initial As concentrations in soil and As concentrations in leachate after the first wet-dry cycle were measured. A new parameter, Re, was introduced as the ratio of As concentration in leachate to the initial As concentration in soil. A separate RF model was developed to predict Re, using soil properties as input variables. Model performance was evaluated with the coefficient of determination (R²) to assess predictive accuracy. The outputs from these RF models, MIM-based solute transport parameters and Re were integrated to estimate site-specific AF values.

The RF models demonstrated excellent performance, with R² values exceeding 0.9, in predicting both MIM-based solute transport parameters and Re. Soil properties from 28 sites across South Korea were collected, encompassing diverse characteristics such as variations in texture, organic matter content, iron content, and vadose zone depths. Using the developed models, MIM-based solute transport parameters and Re values for these 28 sites were estimated. Subsequently, site-specific AF values were calculated, ranging from 4.26 to 26.07. This variability highlights the significant influence of heterogeneous soil properties on As attenuation in vadose zone. These findings underscore limitations of using the default AF value of 1 and validate the importance of site-specific analyses for accurate As risk assessments. The proposed methodology provides practical tools for estimating AF values for arsenic and enhancing risk assessments globally, particularly in areas vulnerable to As contamination.

How to cite: Tran, T. H. H., Kim, S. H., Chung, J., and Lee, S.: Site-Specific Attenuation Factor Estimation for Arsenic in Vadose Zone: A Data-Driven Framework Incorporating Soil Properties and Wet-Dry Cycles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14253, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14253, 2025.

EGU25-14384 | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Pore Network Modeling of Nanoparticle Dispersion in Porous Media 

Marios Ioannidis, Stephen Dauphinais, Ali Mansourieh, and Jeff Gostick

Understanding the processes that give rise to hydrodynamic dispersion of nanoparticles in porous media is important not only for assessing the risk from their accidental release in subsurface environments, but also for the design of nanoremediation strategies.  Pore network models offer distinct advantages over continuum models, including the ability to account for the distribution of pore-scale velocities, as well as other phenomena that occur at the pore scale and are dependent on the interaction between nanoparticles and the local geometry of the pore space (hindered diffusion, size exclusion, etc.). Adopting a Eulerian approach, we formulate here a pore network model in OpenPNM, and present simulations of nanoparticle transport in a fully-saturated column packed with spherical beads. The pore network which is extracted from a voxel image of the simulated sphere pack is found to accurately represent the permeability, tortuosity and capillary properties of a real column of glass beads. The resulting pore network model is used to investigate an aspect of nanoparticle transport that has so far received limited attention, namely the possible effect of nanoparticle size on dispersivity. To this end, the longitudinal dispersion coefficient is determined by simulating transient advection and diffusion in the pore network, introducing either a pulse or step-change injection, and then fitting analytical solutions to the resulting elution curve.  It is found that nanoparticle size influences the dispersion coefficient or the effective particle velocity only when the ratio of particle to bead (solid grain) size is sufficiently high (greater than about 0.01). Under such conditions, the nanoparticles experience an earlier breakthrough due to the velocity profile exclusion. Hindered diffusion is found to play a significant role only when the Peclet number is less than 10.  In the absence of such effects, the simulations provide a priori predictions of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient in agreement with a large body of literature data.

How to cite: Ioannidis, M., Dauphinais, S., Mansourieh, A., and Gostick, J.: Pore Network Modeling of Nanoparticle Dispersion in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14384, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14384, 2025.

EGU25-14572 | Orals | HS8.1.1

Interpreting the unheeded inherent connections between micropollutants: PFAS and Pesticides 

Manish Kumar, Kanika Dogra, Dipa Lalwani, and Vivek Agarwal

The widespread contamination of the environment by fluorinated compounds, particularly those categorized as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), has emerged as a pressing global issue. These substances have well-documented adverse effects on human health, biodiversity, and overall ecosystem stability. Recent scientific investigations have identified PFAS-class chemicals in pesticide formulations, including within the active ingredients of these products. Considering the wide range of health effects associated with PFAS exposure, it is critical to investigate how the presence of carbon-fluorine bonds within pesticide ingredients contributes to their environmental persistence and toxicity. Therefore, this study aims to unravel the interactions among PFAS and pesticides, in particular, offering insights into their combined effects on the ecosystem and organismal health. Surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) samples were collected from various sites across Yorkshire County, England, in 2023. The concentrations of total PFAS and pesticides in SW ranged from <0.00009 to 0.0531 μg L-1 and <0.0001 to 0.04 μg L-1, respectively. Among PFAS and pesticide compounds analyzed, perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS), Endrin, and Permethrin exhibited the highest concentrations in SW. Conversely, GW samples demonstrated relatively lower concentrations of all compounds, except Atrazine, Endosulfan, and Aldicarb, which were detected at elevated levels. Correlation analysis revealed moderate to weak relationships between PFAS and pesticides, with comparatively stronger correlations observed between DDT and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFPeA), and perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA). These correlations likely stem from the inherent persistence, mobility, and water solubility of these substances. Furthermore, strong correlations among pesticides such as Endosulfan, DDT, Aldrin, and Malathion were identified, likely reflecting shared chemical behaviors and historical usage patterns in pest control practices. Therefore, the result from this study constitutes a pioneering exploration of the potential interactions between PFAS and pesticides, underscoring the critical need for further research to assess their toxicity comprehensively.

Keywords: PFAS; pesticides; interactions; UK; groundwater; PFOS; toxicity; surface water.

How to cite: Kumar, M., Dogra, K., Lalwani, D., and Agarwal, V.: Interpreting the unheeded inherent connections between micropollutants: PFAS and Pesticides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14572, 2025.

EGU25-14606 | Orals | HS8.1.1

Interception History: A Paradigm Shift for Particle Transport in Porous Media 

William Johnson, Diogo Bolster, Luis Ullauri, Bashar Al-Zghoul, and Sabrina Volponi

Over the past several decades, the focus of colloid transport in groundwater has expanded from pathogens and radionuclide-bearing clays to include engineered nanomaterials and most recently micro- and nano-plastics.  For all of these and other colloid types, the following variances from expectations of Colloid Filtration Theory (CFT) have been well-demonstrated under unfavorable conditions where a repulsive barrier exists in colloid-surface interactions: a) extended tailing of low concentrations in breakthrough-elution concentration histories (BTEC) following initial elution; b) retention profiles (RP) that are non-exponential (multiexponential or nonmonotonic).  We present recent experiments and simulations demonstrating that these variances from CFT arise from variations in interception history among the attached colloids.  Specifically, we show that the fraction of the colloid population that attaches after a single interception is the majority under favorable conditions whereas it is the minority under unfavorable conditions. We show that colloid concentrations decrease exponentially only for colloids that attach after a single interception, whereas colloids that attach following multiple interceptions assume gamma distributions down gradient from the source with maxima at transport distances that increase with interception order.  We show that all these distributions are governed by the collector and attachment efficiencies ( and ).  The well-observed non exponential RPs result from superposition of the RPs for single- and multiple- interception attachers, wherein decreases or increases in  or  with interception order yields multiexponential or nonmonotonic RPs, respectively.  Extended tailing in BTECs reflects colloids that eluted after many repeated interceptions without attachment.  We speculate on the origin of changes in  or  with interception order.  We emphasize that these variances reflect a fundamental aspect of transport under unfavorable conditions, i.e., the stochastics of attachment to nanoscale heterogeneity, as they arise in the absence of variations in colloid size, surface properties, and density, as well as in the absence of straining and detachment. 

How to cite: Johnson, W., Bolster, D., Ullauri, L., Al-Zghoul, B., and Volponi, S.: Interception History: A Paradigm Shift for Particle Transport in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14606, 2025.

EGU25-14864 | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Hydrophobic Interaction Effects on the Transport of a Model Nanoplastic in 2D and 3D Porous Media 

Marios Ioannidis, Youssra Rahham, Noemi Moraglio, Monica Granetto, Tiziana Tosco, and Rajandrea Sethi

The attraction between a hydrophobic particle and a hydrophobic surface may be strong enough for irreversible attachment to take place, even under conditions of strong electrostatic repulsion (so called “unfavorable” attachment conditions). This fact has fundamental implications for the transport and retention of hydrophobic nano-colloids (i.e., nanoplastics) in subsurface aquatic environments, where hydrophobic surfaces and interfaces are ubiquitous. Inclusion of hydrophobic attraction in extended DLVO calculations of the total interaction potential between hydrophobic negatively charged ethyl cellulose nanoparticles (a model nanoplastic) and (i) glass surfaces rendered hydrophobic via treatment with octadecyltrichlorosilane (OTS) or (ii) naturally hydrophobic air-water interfaces, indicate the absence of a barrier to attachment and support an expectation of irreversible attachment. We present here a series of experiments in saturated and unsaturated 2D (pore networks etched on glass) and 3D (columns packed with glass beads) porous media which confirm this expectation. The ability of a continuum model accounting for advection, dispersion and irreversible attachment to describe the breakthrough curves is also tested. The results advance the ability to describe the fate of hydrophobic nano-colloids in porous media for a variety of applications.  

How to cite: Ioannidis, M., Rahham, Y., Moraglio, N., Granetto, M., Tosco, T., and Sethi, R.: Hydrophobic Interaction Effects on the Transport of a Model Nanoplastic in 2D and 3D Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14864, 2025.

EGU25-15453 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Interaction of unsaturated water flow and microplastic transport in a sandy soil imaged with neutron and X-ray CT 

Andreas Cramer, Pascal Benard, Anders Kaestner, Mohsen Zarebanadkouki, Peter Lehmann, and Andrea Carminati

Soils are considered the largest sink of microplastic (MP) particles in terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is little knowledge on the implications of MP on soil functions. In particular, we lack understanding of conditions under which MP are transported through porous media and, if they are deposited, how they affect soil hydraulic properties. Since MP generally exhibits a high degree of hydrophobicity, we hypothesize that MP enhances soil water repellency. Depending on the distribution of MP, we expect localized restrictions in water flow, with water preferentially bypassing MP-rich areas, resulting in a limited impact of water flow on the transport of MP.

To quantify the effect of MP on water flow, we applied simultaneous neutron and X-ray imaging methods at the beamline ICON (Paul-Scherrer-Institute) to porous media samples (sand, 0.7-1.2 mm) mixed with MP (PET, 20-75 µm) during repeated wetting and drying cycles. Samples were wetted by drip irrigation at 3.93 mm min-1 create unsaturated flow conditions. The distribution of water and MP was captured in three dimensions before and at the end of each wetting and drying cycle (neutron combined with X-ray tomography). During wetting, time-series neutron radiography was used to image water infiltration patterns. The employed MP contents reflect static contact angles of 30° (0.00 % MP, control), 60° (0.35 % MP), 90° (1.05 % MP) and >90° (2.10 % MP).

Analysis of the acquired images indicates that MP significantly altered infiltration patterns. In particular, high local MP contents caused local water repellency and were bypassed by water flow, with MP remaining in air filled pores. This resulted in rapid and preferential water percolation towards the bottom of the samples and in lower average water saturation behind the wetting front. Analysis of the wetting fronts during infiltration revealed an increasing infiltration speed with an increase in overall MP content. Significant vertical transport of MP was not evident during wetting and drying cycles. Instead, a rather horizontal re-distribution of MP was visible.

We conclude that the presence of MP in soils can have severe effects on local water flow with feedbacks on MP transport, as MP is bypassed by water during infiltration. Low water contents in microregions might also limit MP degradation due to reductions in hydrolysis, prevented coating of MP surfaces and delayed colonization by microorganisms.

How to cite: Cramer, A., Benard, P., Kaestner, A., Zarebanadkouki, M., Lehmann, P., and Carminati, A.: Interaction of unsaturated water flow and microplastic transport in a sandy soil imaged with neutron and X-ray CT, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15453, 2025.

EGU25-16022 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.1

 Overcome the obstacle of NP analysis – a concept of chemical/microscopic methods combined with artificial intelligence 

Alexandra Foetisch, Collin Weber, Kerstin Stricker, and Moritz Bigalke

Numerous studies have shown the potential risk that nanoplastic (NP) represents for the living organisms in the different ecosystems. However, the amount and characteristics of NP present in the environment are still unknown in its full extent. Even if several methods have already managed to quantify or characterize environmental NP, none, to our best knowledge, could yet provide a single particle complete characterisation over the full nanoscale range combined with a high sample throughput.

The present work tackles the challenge of NP full characterisation in soil by testing an innovative combination and alignment of µ Raman spectroscopy (RS), scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX), pyrolysis gas chromatography mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS) and artificial intelligence (AI). The aim is to use the RS data to train an AI model that can automatically recognise NP in environmental samples using SEM/EDX data. The SEM data used to classify the particles include textural features extracted from the 2D images, elemental composition given by the EDX spectrum and the particle behaviour under the electron beam. Particles shape/size transformation when being exposed to high voltage has already been used for microplastic identification but still need to be tested for NP.

First, NP down to 500 nm are identified using RS in samples of increasing complexity, starting with pure NP, mixed NP, spiked media and, finally, environmental samples. Secondly, the suitability of NP behaviour under electron beam to identify plastic material in complex matrices with SEM is tested on the identified NP. Then, the dataset acquired with RS and SEM/EDX on NP is divided into a training and testing set to build a convolutional neural network (CNN) allowing the differentiation between NP and non-NP particles present in a sample. Finally, textural features, elemental composition and behaviour under the beam data are acquired for all particles down to 50 nm in the different samples. The total mass of each polymer present in the sample is extrapolated and then cross-validated by performing a Py-GC/MS analysis on the same sample. Monte Carlo simulations are then used to model the error of the extrapolation based on data provided by the RS and SEM data. The aim of this model is then to allow the identification and characterisation of <500 nm NP present in a sample using SEM/EDX data and AI.

In case of success, this model would provide for the first time a full characterisation of environmental NP with a high sample throughput. This methods combination could then provide a more accurate assessment of the NP pollution in the environment.

 

How to cite: Foetisch, A., Weber, C., Stricker, K., and Bigalke, M.:  Overcome the obstacle of NP analysis – a concept of chemical/microscopic methods combined with artificial intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16022, 2025.

EGU25-17993 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.1

Coupled hydrological modelling for PFBS movement into the subsurface 

Martha Perdikaki, Efthymios Chrysanthopoulos, Silvia Lacorte, Konstantinos Markantonis, Ioannis Dafnos, Stylianos Samios, and Andreas Kallioras

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are chemical compounds containing carbon-fluorine bonds of high toxicity related with several concerning effects to human health and to the environment. Since PFAS are widely used in everyday life with numerous industrial uses as well as in fire training sites, airports and military areas, these substances have already penetrated to the soil and the aquatic environment. PFAS movement in surface water, soil and groundwater is a field of high interest during the last few years among the scientific community with much recent research focusing on PFAS movement, sorption and travel time through modeling. The aim of the present work is to examine the movement of Perfluorobutanesulfonic acid (PFBS) in the subsurface through numerical modeling. Different hydraulic models were utilized to simulate water and solute movement in the unsaturated zone and the groundwater. More specifically, HYDRUS 1-D and PHREEQC codes for unsaturated zone flow and MODFLOW 6 code for groundwater flow were implemented. The proposed framework was applied in Kifissos basin, Athens, Greece. The unsaturated zone flow model was constructed for a pilot area where Kifissos riverbed is natural (not channelized). To conceptualize the unsaturated zone column under the natural riverbed in the pilot site, several lithostratigraphic data were employed. Sensor data of the river stage were utilized for model inflow. Mass transport within the unsaturated zone was simulated using Hydrus 1D code for the convection and dispersion of chemical species in the liquid phase of the unsaturated zone. PFBS initial concentration was obtained from a grab sampling campaign. Reactive sorption onto the solid phase and adsorption onto the air-Air-Water Interface (AWI) of the unsaturated zone is simulated with PHREEQC 3, given the initial concentrations from Hydrus-1D mass transport simulation. For the simulation of air-water interfacial adsorption the predefined mathematical rate expressions have been scripted into RATES data block of PHREEQC 3. A regional groundwater model was constructed for the case study. The model includes two convertible (phreatic) aquifer layers. The complex lithology of Athens was configured through hydraulic properties zonation. Groundwater flow model performance was validated with existing measurements. Further discretization was applied to model grid at the vicinity of the pilot area. The Groundwater Transport Process (GWT) of MODFLOW 6 was utilized to simulate advection and dispersion processes. Mobile Storage Transfer (MST) Package was utilized to simulate solute storage, sorption, and decay on the mobile domain. Finally, the coupling of the unsaturated flow and solute transport results was accomplished through Mass Source Loading package (SRC). The coupling of several subsurface hydrological models revealed that PFBS can be characterized as threatening substance for groundwater due to its mobility, the minimal sorption at the AWI and the competitive displacement from solid surfaces with the introduction of longer-chain PFAS. Groundwater numerical modeling suggested that PFBS plume movement and concentration is affected by regional groundwater flow and sorption processes.

Acknowledgements: This reasearch is part of the project UPWATER (Understanding groundwater Pollution to protect and enhance WATERquality) that has received funding from the European Union under grant agreement No 101081807

How to cite: Perdikaki, M., Chrysanthopoulos, E., Lacorte, S., Markantonis, K., Dafnos, I., Samios, S., and Kallioras, A.: Coupled hydrological modelling for PFBS movement into the subsurface, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17993, 2025.

EGU25-317 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

Self-Organization in Solution Pipe Patterns: A Comparative Study from Australia and the Mediterranean 

Maria Waligórska, Magdalena Kurek, Dawid Woś, Matej Lipar, and Piotr Szymczak

Solution pipes—vertical, cylindrical voids in karst terrains—are enigmatic geomorphic features whose formation mechanisms remain poorly understood. These structures exhibit spatial distributions suggesting self-organization processes. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the spatial arrangements of solution pipes from Australia and the Mediterranean region. We quantified spatial patterns through metrics such as the radial correlation function, angular order parameter, and Voronoi tessellation. The results reveal non-random distributions consistent with self-organization, driven by feedback mechanisms involving dissolution dynamics and localized groundwater flow. These findings support the idea that self-organization plays a critical role in the development of solution pipes and offer new insights into the processes driving karst landscape evolution on a global scale.

How to cite: Waligórska, M., Kurek, M., Woś, D., Lipar, M., and Szymczak, P.: Self-Organization in Solution Pipe Patterns: A Comparative Study from Australia and the Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-317, 2025.

EGU25-411 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.2

Optimizing injection parameters in mineral replacement systems 

Tomasz Szawełło and Piotr Szymczak

Mineral replacement processes often involve coupled dissolution-precipitation reactions, where a primary mineral is replaced by a secondary one. These transformations are governed by strong, nonlinear interactions among chemical reactions at rock surfaces, evolving pore geometries, and the development or closure of flow pathways. Maintaining a steady influx of reactants and efficient removal of products is crucial for sustaining reaction progression, but issues such as passivation layer formation or flow channel blockage by precipitates frequently disrupt this balance. This problem is particularly relevant in the context of mineral trapping of CO₂, where chemical reactions lead to an increase in solid volume. Consequently, determining optimal injection rates becomes crucial for enhancing the efficiency of the process. To address these challenges, we propose a numerical framework designed to simulate hydrochemical transformations within porous media.

In our simulations, we examine a medium infiltrated by a reactive fluid that triggers coupled dissolution-precipitation reactions at pore surfaces. We model the porous medium as a system of interconnected pipes [1], with the diameter of each segment changing depending on the local consumption of reactants. We incorporate nonlinear kinetics of chemical reactions into the model and assess the impact of inlet reactant concentrations on the behavior of the system. During evolution, we also modify the network topology by merging connections when pore distances are comparable to pore sizes and by cutting connections when pores become clogged.

We explore possible dissolution-precipitation regimes in search of parameters optimal for mineral replacement. By varying the flow rate and the concentrations of injected species, we analyze the emergent patterns to construct a morphological diagram. We benchmark the results against experimental data on calcium carbonate dissolution and gypsum precipitation [2]. We are particularly interested in regimes with oscillating permeability, where the reaction is self-limiting—precipitates clog the pores, but the system continually creates new flow pathways, maintaining reaction progress. We quantitatively characterize various evolution regimes, measuring the volume of replaced mineral and assessing the development of flow pathways [3]. Through this analysis, we identify a region in the space of injection parameters that maximizes mineral replacement.

 

[1] A. Budek and P. Szymczak, Physical Review E, 86, 056318, 2012.
[2] O. Singurindy and B. Berkowitz, Water Resources Research, 39, 1016, 2003.
[3] T. Szawełło, J. D. Hyman, P. K. Kang, and P. Szymczak, Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL109940, 2024.

How to cite: Szawełło, T. and Szymczak, P.: Optimizing injection parameters in mineral replacement systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-411, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-411, 2025.

EGU25-702 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

Hydration of anhydrite with substitution of strontium (Ca,Sr)SO4 - model experiments 

Martyna Nawracaj, Julia Różańska, Kacper Staszel, Bartosz Puzio, Aleksandra Puławska, and Maciej Manecki

Hydration of anhydrite with substitution of strontium (Ca,Sr)SO4 - model experiments

Martyna NAWRACAJ1, Julia RÓŻAŃSKA1, Kacper STASZEL1, Bartosz PUZIO1, Aleksandra PUŁAWSKA1, Maciej MANECKI1

1Department of Mineralogy, Petrography and Geochemistry, AGH University of Kraków, al. Mickiewicza 30,    30-059 Kraków, Poland

Infiltration of fresh water into the clay-anhydrite layers of the salt deposit (Bochnia Salt Mine, UNESCO World Heritage Site in southern Poland) results in the hydration of anhydrite (CaSO₄) to gypsum (CaSO₄·2H₂O) (Pitera and Cyran, 2008). This process is particularly complex and unusual because the parent anhydrite is partially substituted with Sr (0.1-0.2%, Pulawska et al., 2021), and the release of strontium during this transformation remains unclear.

To investigate this phenomenon, laboratory model experiments were performed. Synthetic analogs of Sr-substituted anhydrite with varying Sr content (0.1%, 1%, as well as  2%) were prepared, along with pure anhydrite and celestine (SrSO₄). All five syntheses were conducted for 3 hr at 120°C (Kamarou et al., 2021) and resulted in formation of Sr-doped anhydrite. A maximum Sr substitution in anhydrite was established at 1–2 wt.%. Synthetic sulfates were hydrated for 70 days in a controlled environment, using 500 mL of redistilled water with 2.5 g of solid material (1:10 solution-to-solid ratio). The solids were analyzed using powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The phase transformations began as early as 21 days in both pure and 0.1% Sr-substituted anhydrite, forming bassanite (CaSO₄·0.5H₂O). Later on, the hemihydrate sulfate transformed into gypsum. Pure celestine did not undergo any phase transformation during the hydration process.

Model hydration experiments have successfully mirrored the natural phenomenon occurring in the Bochnia Salt Mine, including the release of strontium into solution. These findings leave the room for further research so as to understand the fate and influence of strontium on minerals in salt deposits.

References

  • Kamarou, M., Korob, N., Hil, A., Moskovskikh, D., Romanovski, V. (2021). Low-energy technology for producing anhydrite in the CaCO3–H2SO4–H2O system derived from industrial wastes. Journal of Chemical Technology & Biotechnology, Vol 96, issues 7, p. 2065-2071
  • Pitera, H., Cyran, K. (2008) Altered anhydrite from Bochnia Salt Mine (Poland). Geologia, Vol 34, issue 1, p. 5–17 (in Polish)
  • Puławska, A., Manecki, M., Flasza, M., (2021). Mineralogical and Chemical Tracing of Dust Variation in an Underground Historic Salt Mine. Mineralas, 11, 686

How to cite: Nawracaj, M., Różańska, J., Staszel, K., Puzio, B., Puławska, A., and Manecki, M.: Hydration of anhydrite with substitution of strontium (Ca,Sr)SO4 - model experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-702, 2025.

EGU25-1169 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.2

Evolution of anomalous transport following precipitation in porous media 

Matan Cohen, Ishai Dror, and Brian Berkowitz

Flow through porous media involving precipitation and dissolution reactions exhibits a unique feedback behavior between the velocity field and solute transport. In this presentation, we report the findings of a study exploring the relationship between a gradually increasing degree of precipitation and the occurrence of anomalous transport (i.e., transport that cannot be quantified by the advection-dispersion equation). Gypsum was precipitated incrementally in 60 cm long, saturated, sand-packed columns, and an inert tracer was injected between precipitation phases, yielding breakthrough curves (BTCs) as functions of an increasing degree of precipitation. Continuous time random walk particle tracking simulations were used to model these BTCs and quantify the evolution of anomalous transport. Results show an increasingly high degree of anomalous transport following precipitation, while the manner in which the increase manifested varied among duplicate experiments. Two major consistent trends were an increase in the overall BTC widths (i.e., elution time windows) and progressively heavier BTC tailing, as indicated by the steepness of the slope from each BTC peak to the point where it drops below a threshold concentration. Under the current experimental conditions, the effects of precipitation were strikingly similar to those found previously for dissolution, including early BTC onset, peak splitting, and heavier BTC tailing. Finally, the range of transport behaviors among heterogeneous natural systems might be significantly greater than that found in our work for three homogeneously-packed columns.

How to cite: Cohen, M., Dror, I., and Berkowitz, B.: Evolution of anomalous transport following precipitation in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1169, 2025.

In the Baiyun Sag of the Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB), the oil and gas exploration targets have graduallyshifted from the conventional reservoirs in the shallow to moderately deep Hanjiang-Zhujiang formations to the lowpermeability, tight reservoirs in the deep to ultra-deep Zhuhai-Enping formations. Due to their distinct geological setting of highly variable geothermal gradients, the low-permeability, tight reservoirs exhibit significantly different diagenesis and tightening mechanisms from the conventional reservoirs. Using techniques such as casting thin section observation, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), physical property tests, diagenetic reconstruction, and physical property restoration, we systematically analyze the diagenetic processes of the Paleogene sandstone reservoirs from the Zhuhai Formation’s lower member to the Enping Formation in the area from the northwestern low uplift to the central sub-sag zone in the Baiyun Sag and their disparities. Considering the tectonic evolution setting, stratigraphic burial history, and current physical property data, we investigate the major factors influencing the relationships among the reservoirs’ physical properties and explore their tightening processes and mechanisms. The results suggest that the reservoirs from the Zhuhai Formation’s lower member to the Enping Formation have experienced intense compaction, two-stage carbonate cementation, three-stage siliceous cementation, and three-stage feldspar dissolution. During their diagenetic processes, the reservoirs exhibited varying compaction rates due to changes in geothermal gradients and underwent water-rock interactions in different open-closed systems. These are major reasons for the different physical properties of the reservoirs across various tectonic zones in the Baiyun Sag. Compaction emerged as the primary factor leading to the reservoir tightness, which was further enhanced by siliceous and carbonate cementation. In contrast, dissolution improved the physical properties of the reservoirs. From the lowuplift to the sub-sag zone, strata from the Zhuhai Formation’s lower member to the Enping Formation exhibited increasing geothermal gradients and burial depths. Accordingly, their reservoirs in the low uplift, slope zone, and sub-sag zone are in the middle diagenetic stage A2, middle diagenetic stage B, and late diagenetic stage, respectively, with diagenetic intensity gradually increasing. The diagenetic variations significantly impacted the evolution of the reservoirs’physical properties. Specifically, the reservoirs in the sub-sag zone had become tight prior to the late-stage hydrocarbon charging, while those in the slope zone underwent a gradually tightening process during this period.

How to cite: Zhao, X., Yuan, G., and Peng, G.: Mechanisms of Rock-Fluid Interactions on Reservoir Low-Permeability and tightening in the Paleogene of the Baiyun Sag, Pearl River Mouth Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1500, 2025.

In my talk, I will present an efficient element-based reduction technique which can significantly decrease the number of conservation equations and thereby reduce the computational time. The proposed formulation is based on the consistent element balance reduction of the molar (overall composition) formulation. To predict the complex phase behaviour in such systems, we include the chemical equilibrium constraints in the multiphase multi-component flash calculations and solve the thermodynamic and chemical phase equilibrium simultaneously. In this solution, the phase equilibrium is represented by the partition coefficients whereas the chemical equilibrium reaction is represented by the activity coefficients model. Using the Equilibrium Rate Annihilation matrix allows us to reduce the governing unknowns to the element conservation equations only while the coupling between chemical and thermodynamic equilibrium is captured by a simultaneous solution of modified multiphase flash equations. The element composition of the mixture serves as an input for these computations whereas the output is fractions of components in each phase, including solids. 

Next, a finite-volume unstructured discretization in space is applied together with a backward Euler approximation in time. The resulting complex nonlinear system is parameterized using the Operator-Based Linearization (OBL) approach. The OBL framework transfers the governing nonlinear Partial Differential Equations into a linearized operator form where the Jacobian is constructed as a product of a matrix of derivatives with respect to state variables and discretization operators. The state-dependent operators are only evaluated adaptively at vertices of the mesh introduced in the parameter space. The continuous representation of state-dependent operators as well as their derivatives is achieved by using a multi-linear interpolation in parameter space. This means that the usually time-consuming phase and chemical equilibrium computations, performed on each nonlinear iteration and in every control volume, are only executed when evaluating the operators in the new supporting points, thereby significantly reducing both the linearization time and the number of nonlinear iterations. The simulation of multidimensional problems of practical interest has been performed using the proposed technique.

How to cite: Voskov, D.: Operator-Based Linearization approach for flow and transport with equilibrium and kinetic reactions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2543, 2025.

As conventional oil and gas production declines, global exploration and development efforts have shifted towards unconventional oil and gas resources, with tight volcanic reservoirs emerging as a primary focus. The tuffaceous rocks of the Dehui Fault Depression in the Songliao Basin, characterized by fine-grained volcanic ash deposits, have undergone diagenetic modifications, resulting in low porosity and low permeability with complex pore structures. Identifying the main controlling factors of high-quality reservoir formation and understanding the mechanisms behind secondary pore formation are critical areas of research that require urgent attention.

The study provides several key insights: (1) It identifies the main types of diagenetic processes in the reservoir and establishes a diagenetic evolution sequence. The formation of high-quality reservoirs is primarily controlled by "dual phases" (lithofacies and depositional facies), which includes both pore preservation and enhancement. Acidic dissolution is identified as the primary cause of secondary pore development, with the mechanism of acidic dissolution and its three necessary conditions being discussed; (2) An innovative technique combining large-view stitching and human-computer interaction for thin-section identification images has been developed. This technique establishes a face porosity-porosity model, accurately quantifying the impact of various diagenetic processes on reservoir physical property and identifying the main factors controlling these properties. A porosity evolution history map is created using a combination of back-stripping inversion and computer image analysis techniques. Simultaneously combining chemical kinetics models and fluid inclusion identification to determine the reservoir formation period, clarifying the reservoir-diagenesis coupling characteristics; (3) Methods for distinguishing volcanic eruption periods and identifying lithofacies are established, revealing the main lithologies and depositional characteristics of different eruption periods. The advantageous lithofacies, periods and their distribution characteristics are ultimately determined

Attached Figure Large Visual Field Splicing and Quantitative Characterization of the Dissolution of Huoshiling Formation in Dehui Fault Depression

Figure: Attached Figure Large Visual Field Splicing and Quantitative Characterization of the Dissolution of Huoshiling Formation in Dehui Fault Depression

 

How to cite: Liu, L. and Li, J.: Study on the genesis and controlling role of deep and dense volcanic reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2678, 2025.

EGU25-3044 | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

Quantifying Hyporheic Zone and Hydrochemical Stability under Seasonal Variability 

Heejung Kim, Han-Sun Ryu, Jae-E Yang, Jinah Moon, Naing Aung Khant, Regina Martha Lumongsod, Arkar San, and Minha Lee

The hyporheic zone (HZ), a critical interface between surface water and groundwater, plays a key role in controlling water quality, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem resilience. This study quantitatively investigates the depth and hydrochemical stability of the HZ in contrasting geological settings—a limestone-dominated upstream and a gneiss-dominated downstream region—using hydraulic gradient measurements, temperature profiles, and hydrochemical data collected across four seasons (spring, summer, fall, winter) between 2021 and 2022. Key parameters, including hydraulic gradients (dh/dl), temperature, and Saturation Index (SI), were collected seasonally from a representative streambed. The study incorporated δ18O, δD and δ13C isotopic data to determine mixing ratios between surface and groundwater and their effects on the HZ boundary dynamics. Advanced numerical modeling, including Darcy’s law and heat transfer equations, was employed to delineate the spatial and temporal variability of the HZ. Our results reveal a significant correlation between seasonal shifts in hydroclimatic factors (precipitation, evaporation, and temperature variability) and HZ, demonstrating its dynamic nature. Increased precipitation during the wet season enhanced mixing processes, resulting in elevated SI values and potential carbonate mineral saturation, while the dry season exhibited reduced mixing and undersaturation conditions. These findings suggest that seasonal hydroclimatic factors profoundly influence the chemical and physical stability of the HZ, impacting water resource management and ecosystem resilience.

This work was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (grant numbers 2019R1A6A1A03033167). This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "The SS(Surface Soil conservation and management) projects; 2019002820004.

How to cite: Kim, H., Ryu, H.-S., Yang, J.-E., Moon, J., Khant, N. A., Lumongsod, R. M., San, A., and Lee, M.: Quantifying Hyporheic Zone and Hydrochemical Stability under Seasonal Variability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3044, 2025.

EGU25-5873 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.2

The study on fractal theory to characterize the pore structure of organic-rich shale reservoirs 

Zhaomeng Wei, Hua Liu, Yumao Pang, and Junjian Zhang

Abstract: The micro- and nano-pores in organic-rich shale reservoirs significantly impact the exploration potential of unconventional oil and gas. To clarify the heterogeneity of pore size distribution and its influencing factors in organic-rich shales, this study was conducted on shale cores with significant gas logging anomalies from 1600-1680m, collected from a scientific drilling well in the South Yellow Sea Basin that penetrated the Permian strata. Nitrogen adsorption-desorption experiments, total organic carbon (TOC), X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy tests were carried out. Additionally, fractal theory was employed to characterize the heterogeneity and connectivity features of the pore structure. The results indicate that the average TOC of the selected samples is 5.99%, and the shale lithofacies are predominantly Siliceous shale, Clay shale, and Clay shale-Clay Mixed shale. The clay shale has the highest average specific surface area and pore volume, with averages of 5.54 m2/g and 9.37×10-3 cm3/g, respectively. The fractal dimensions D1 and D2 calculated using the single Frenkel-Halsey-Hill method are relatively independent. The multifractal box-counting method suggests that low-probability measure areas play a key role in the heterogeneity of the full-size pore size distribution. The generalized fractal dimension D(q) decreases with increasing q, and the singularity fractal spectrum exhibits a non-symmetric parabolic shape, indicating that the pores in organic-rich shales possess multifractal characteristics. An increase in TOC and clay mineral content enhances the overall heterogeneity of the pore structure, while an increase in calcareous mineral content improves pore connectivity. The multifractal model demonstrates a significant advantage in quantitatively characterizing the heterogeneity of pore structures in organic-rich shales, providing an important theoretical basis for shale gas exploration and development.

Key words: Organic-rich shale; Pore structure; Heterogeneity; Monofractal analysis; Multifractal analysis

How to cite: Wei, Z., Liu, H., Pang, Y., and Zhang, J.: The study on fractal theory to characterize the pore structure of organic-rich shale reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5873, 2025.

EGU25-6968 | Orals | HS8.1.2

Surrogate modeling and global sensitivity analysis for biomineralization in porous media 

Ze Yang, Alberto Guadagnini, Monica Riva, Zhi Dou, Chaozhong Qin, and Jinguo Wang

We focus on the assessment of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitates in complex porous systems under a variety of sources of uncertainty. Our study specifically targets calcium carbonate (CaCO3) biomineralizing techniques, that are of significant interest across a wide range of engineering applications. In this context, one can note that favoring mineralization can markedly alter the pore space structure as well as hydrodynamic parameters of porous materials. Otherwise, uncertainties surrounding our ability to assess hydraulic and biochemical parameters driving the dynamics of biomineralization treatments can influence the way we quantify the extent of mineral precipitation. Here, we start from a pore scale perspective and rest on a stochastic modeling approach. The latter leverages a combination of (i) a fully coupled biomineralization model based on a pore network model (PNM) and (ii) a surrogate model that enables one to perform numerical Monte Carlo simulations at a reduced computational cost. Our surrogate model relies on a classical polynomial chaos expansion approach. We consider the biomineralization model described by Qin et al. (2016) and perform geochemical speciation through the open-source PHREEQC module. The surrogate model is constructed on the basis of numerical results stemming from the full biomineralization model and is here employed to perform global sensitivity studies and uncertainty quantification analyses. Our results enable one to identify the relative importance of four design (or control) quantities (i.e., (i) injected biomass concentration, (ii) initial biofilm across the pore space, (iii) pressure difference between inlet and outlet of the porous medium, and (iv) injected urea concentration) and of the initial distribution of pore sizes across the domain on (a) volume fraction of precipitates within the host porous medium (in terms of total amount and preferential location within pores of given size) and (b) permeability reduction of the overall porous medium after biomineralization. Global sensitivity analyses reveal that the volume fraction of precipitates is strongly influenced by biomass and urea concentrations. These quantities are associated with a strong positive correlation with precipitate volumes. Our results can form the basis to inform model calibration under uncertainty, thus providing a robust foundation for optimizing biomineralization strategies in engineering applications. 

Reference:

Qin, C.-Z., Hassanizadeh, S. M., & Ebigbo, A. (2016). Pore-scale network modeling of microbially induced calcium carbonate precipitation: Insight into scale dependence of biogeochemical reaction rates: pore-scale network modeling of MICP. Water Resources Research, 52(11), 8794–8810. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019128.

How to cite: Yang, Z., Guadagnini, A., Riva, M., Dou, Z., Qin, C., and Wang, J.: Surrogate modeling and global sensitivity analysis for biomineralization in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6968, 2025.

EGU25-7947 | Orals | HS8.1.2

Fracture vs. matrix reactivity in a tight crystalline rock. Modeling of a fractured-gneiss core infiltration experiment. 

Josep M. Soler, Jordi Cama, Orlando Silva, and Tiina Lamminmäki

Two infiltration experiments using a fractured gneiss core were performed to address the reactivity of this crystalline rock (host rock for the Finnish geological repository for spent nuclear fuel). The core was 5 cm in diameter and 6.2 cm in length, with fracture opening values up to 1.1 mm. Mineralogy and fracture volume were characterized by X-ray diffraction and X-ray computed microtomography, respectively. Groundwater from the site (dominated by Cl-Na-Ca, pH 7.26, ionic strength 0.22 molal) was injected in the first experiment, while milli-Q water (pH 6.05) was used in the second one. Both solutions were at equilibrium with the atmosphere, and the experiments were performed at room temperature. Flow rates were about 0.005 mL/min.

The results (evolution of outlet solution chemistry) were interpreted by 1D and 2D reactive transport modeling using the CrunchFlow code. The 1D model included flow, solute transport and reaction only along the fracture. Very large mineral surface areas, much larger than the exposed areas on the fracture surfaces, were needed to reproduce the experimental results. To address this issue a 2D model was developed, which also included diffusive transport and reactions in the rock matrix. The 2D model did not need the large surface areas in the fracture to match the experimental results. These results show the important role that rock matrix plays in the overall reactivity of the fractured rock, despite the small porosities (of the order of 1%) and effective diffusion coefficients (of the order of 10-13 m2/s). However, the 1D approach could still prove useful for large repository-scale calculations, given appropriate calibration.

How to cite: Soler, J. M., Cama, J., Silva, O., and Lamminmäki, T.: Fracture vs. matrix reactivity in a tight crystalline rock. Modeling of a fractured-gneiss core infiltration experiment., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7947, 2025.

EGU25-7963 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.2 | Highlight

Experimental Investigation of Hydrogen Generation and Mineralogical Changes in Basaltic Rocks  

Seongwoo Jeong, Kyoungtae Ko, Mun Gi Kim, and Minjune Yang

The conversion of ferrous iron to ferric iron during water-rock interaction generates molecular hydrogen, a process well-documented in the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks. However, the hydrogen production potential of basaltic rocks remains underexplored, despite their wide distribution and high iron and magnesium content. This study evaluated the hydrogen generation capacity of basaltic rocks through laboratory-scale water-rock interaction experiments using basaltic specimens from the Korean Peninsula. Experiments were conducted in a titanium autoclave at 280°C for up to 14 days. Molecular hydrogen production was measured using gas chromatography equipped with thermal conductivity detector (GC-TCD, FOCUS GC, Thermo Fisher Scientific), and whole-rock chemistry was analyzed using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES, Optima 7000DV, PerkinElmer), both installed at the Integrated Analytical Center for Earth and Environmental Sciences of Pukyong National University, while mineralogical changes were examined using scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS). Hydrogen production varied significantly across samples. OSB-1A showed delayed hydrogen generation, reaching 51.22 mmol/kgrock at 336 hours. In contrast, OSB-1B exhibited rapid and sustained hydrogen production, peaking at 115.04 mmol/kgrock. ULD-2 demonstrated the highest hydrogen yield (182.54 mmol/kgrock at 336 hours), while other samples such as YI-1 and EI-1 produced lower amounts with delayed onset. SEM-EDS analysis confirmed the dissolution of Fe-bearing minerals associated with abiotic hydrogen production, but no secondary Fe-bearing minerals like magnetite or brucite were detected. Instead, nanoscale amorphous precipitates were observed, likely due to the preferential involvement of fine-grained particles with high surface areas in hydrogen production. These findings enhance our understanding of abiotic hydrogen production in basaltic rocks and its implications for geochemical processes and potential energy resources.

How to cite: Jeong, S., Ko, K., Kim, M. G., and Yang, M.: Experimental Investigation of Hydrogen Generation and Mineralogical Changes in Basaltic Rocks , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7963, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7963, 2025.

EGU25-15388 | Orals | HS8.1.2

The versatility of tailored polymers in investigating reactive transport in porous media 

Thomas Ritschel, Nimo Kwarkye, and Kai Totsche

Subsurface transport takes place in a heterogenous and dynamic network of pores, solids, interfaces, and biota that share a complex topology and create a multitude of migration pathways for fluids and their constituents, i.e., the total mobile inventory (TMI). Owing to the highly variable reactivity of different fractions of the TMI towards biogeochemical interfaces provided by associations of minerals, organic matter and biota, characteristics of the transport regime mainly express in response to the availability and exposition of reactive interfaces. We exploit the rich possibilities of polymer synthesis to design a library of reactive, organic polymers that can represent specific fractions of the TMI regarding their size or reactivity and serve as non-conventional tracers. We show the strong and nearly irreversible adsorption of specific polymers towards unoccupied clay mineral surfaces in column experiments. With that, tailored polymers not only presented as tracers for the transport of organic colloids, but also as sensitive interfacial tracers for the assessment of clay surface exposition that enable the quantification of available reactive surface area accessible to fluids and constituents transported therein. We also use polymers to label potentially mobile clay mineral colloids and follow their mobility in porous media by tracking polymers being co-transported along with the colloids. We further use polymers to introduce a fluorescent label to reactive mineral sites and localize their relative distribution on rock surfaces using fluorescence microscopy. As polymers can also be subjected to other spectroscopic techniques such as infrared spectroscopy, a tailored synthesis of polymers towards adsorption to specific sites might open a novel perspective on the characterization and mapping of (mineral) surfaces and their functional role in general.

How to cite: Ritschel, T., Kwarkye, N., and Totsche, K.: The versatility of tailored polymers in investigating reactive transport in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15388, 2025.

Chemical weathering carves earth surface by elemental mobilisation and supergene enrichment. Laterization is one of such process. Laterites result from intense chemical weathering, dominantly in tropical and subtropical climates. Leaching of mobile elements results concentration of iron (Fe) and aluminum (Al) as oxides or oxyhydroxides. The selective mobilization and retention of immobile elements during extreme weathering provides valuable proxies for paleoenvironmental investigations. The enrichment of immobile elements (Fe and Al) in laterite is a dichotomy needing deeper mechanistic insights to understand the origin. To investigate the mechanism of elemental mobilisation and enrichment near earth surface, multiple sets of experiments have been conducted in this study. The effect of drainage conditions and organic ligands of soil have been investigated. Custom made experimental setup of rock leaching significant amount of iron mobilisation with oxalic acid, reaching upto 0.175 mg per day from 1 gm of basalt. SEM and TEM investigation of solid precipitates from the leachants confirmed amorphous Fe-phases. Deeper investigation from molecular perspective using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) are under progress to unveil the mineralogical mysteries with implication towards lateritisation. Furthermore, the integration of reactive transport modeling into these experimental frameworks aims to enhance our understanding of the diverse phases and associated complexes formed during weathering, thereby providing critical insights into paleoenvironmental conditions. This approach will also facilitate the simulation, how various factors influence elemental mobility and enrichment in lateritic profiles.

How to cite: Harbola, D. and Mathew, G.: Unraveling the Mechanisms of Elemental Mobilization and Supergene Enrichment in Lateritization: An Experiment Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16222, 2025.

EGU25-16314 | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

Thermo-hydro-chemical modelling at the field- and lab-scales for a sustainable geothermal energy production in the Upper Rhine Graben – Geothermal project DEKAPALATIN-BERTHA 

Ernesto Meneses Rioseco, Mohamed Omar Ibrahim Abdelmoula, Gueorgui Lee Exuzian, and Inga Moeck

The Upper Rhine Graben in Germany is characterized by a heat anomaly and numerous normal faults crossing permeable sedimentary formations. These complex geothermal and hydrogeological conditions present both risks and opportunities for the geothermal exploration and development. Within the DEKAPALATIN-BERTHA project, located in the city of Wörth, Germany, we focus in the first phase on the understanding the controls on the thermal anomaly through dynamic numerical modelling. Besides, highly saline brines are well known to interact with the host rock in operating geothermal projects in the Upper Rhine Graben. However, this rock-fluid interaction during geothermal operation in not well elucidated quantitatively.  

Thermo-hydro-chemical (THC) coupling in geothermal reservoirs refers to the interrelated processes of heat transfer, fluid flow, and chemical reactions within the subsurface environment. This coupling has a significant impact on the hydrodynamic properties of the reservoir, as temperature changes can alter fluid viscosity and density. At the same time, chemical reactions can alter porosity and permeability through mineral dissolution and precipitation. Understanding and modelling THC interactions is critical for predicting reservoir behavior, optimizing energy recovery, and ensuring the long-term sustainability of geothermal operations. Incorporating THC processes into simulations improves the accuracy of predictions of fluid movement and heat distribution within geothermal systems.

Based on the 3D regional, structural GeORG model, we have built a 3D dynamic model capable of simulating coupled processes. Based on published data on the local hydrogeological stratification, we have resolved target formations such as the Muschelkalk and Middle Buntsandstein in detail. In addition, a gradual complication approach is adopted to investigate the key controlling factors on the heat anomaly. A series of THC numerical models at different scales have been developed prior to the laboratory experiments (µ-CT 3D scan and core flooding) for the optimal experimental setup. In this work we present our latest results.

How to cite: Meneses Rioseco, E., Abdelmoula, M. O. I., Lee Exuzian, G., and Moeck, I.: Thermo-hydro-chemical modelling at the field- and lab-scales for a sustainable geothermal energy production in the Upper Rhine Graben – Geothermal project DEKAPALATIN-BERTHA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16314, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16314, 2025.

Understanding the long-term evolution of groundwater in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal sites is crucial for identifying radionuclide migration pathways, assessing environmental impacts, and ensuring long-term stability. This study evaluates the applicability of non-conventional methods, such as metal isotope analysis, in understanding the geochemical long-term evolution of groundwater. Groundwater and rock core samples were collected from boreholes at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute’s Underground Research Tunnel (KURT) site. To evaluate the geochemical characteristics and changes in lithium isotope (δ⁷Li) composition in the samples, the lithium isotope analysis was performed alongside the principal component analysis (a traditional method). The extent and intensity of chemical weathering were revealed through comparative analysis of the δ⁷Li content changes in groundwater and rock cores, which could ultimately be interpreted in connection with the groundwater residence time. It was revealed that primary mineral dissolution during the early stages of weathering did not significantly affect the δ⁷Li values in the groundwater but secondary mineral formation resulting from prolonged weathering was a factor in increasing the δ⁷Li values in the groundwater and decreasing the δ⁷Li values in the rock cores. Therefore, the δ⁷Li analysis is believed a useful tool to provide insights into primary mineral dissolution, secondary mineral formation, and subsequent re-dissolution processes driven by water-rock interactions. δ⁷Li analysis could be utilized for understanding the geochemical evolution characteristics of disposal environments and for evaluating the safety of deep geological disposal.

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) under the project 'Development of Core Technologies for the Safety of Used Nuclear Fuel Storage and Disposal; NRF-2022M2E1A1052570'.

How to cite: Ahn, J., Lee, I., Park, J., and Yi, M.: Study on Geochemical Characteristics Evaluation Through Lithium Isotope Analysis for Long-Term Evolution of Groundwater in High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16342, 2025.

EGU25-18392 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.2

Insights from high-speed in-situ imaging of wormhole growth in limestone cores. 

Michał Dzikowski, Piotr Szymczak, Dawid Woś, Marta Majkut, and Tymoteusz Kosiński

Positive feedback between permeability and dissolution during the flow of a matrix-dissolving fluid through porous media can create diverse, evolving structures [1]. The dynamics of this hydrochemical instability depend on both flow rate and the geometric properties of the pore space, leading to a wide range of structures: from intricate, cave-like wormholes to simple surface dissolution patterns. 

A variety of petroleum engineering applications led to a significant number of industry-oriented studies, and the effects of flow and reaction rates on wormhole formation are well established [2], however mechanisms governing their propagation dynamics remain poorly understood.

This study investigates the dominant wormhole regime, which has applications in various industrial and natural contexts, including carbon capture and storage. Understanding the dynamics of fluid interaction with the porous matrix requires high-resolution temporal and spatial data. We have recently conducted in-situ X-ray microCT imaging of developing wormholes in dissolving limestone cores flooded with hydrochloric acid, achieving high temporal frequencies (50–100 frames per experiment) [3]. To further improve temporal and spatial resolution, we utilized the ID-19 beamline at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility. A limestone core was confined in a Hassler cell and flooded with hydrochloric acid, while high-frequency 4D tomographic data tracked the evolving 3D shape of the growing wormhole. The time evolution of the wormhole profile has been compared with an analytical model of the growth of the tube-like dissolution structure [4]. As we show, such data, when properly interpreted, allow for a measurement of the mineral dissolution rate constant and the assessment of the impact of diffusive transport on the dissolution process.

[1] Hoefner, M.L. and Fogler, H.S., 1988. Pore evolution and channel formation during flow and reaction in porous media. AIChE J., 34, pp.45-54

[2] Golfier, F., Zarcone, C., Bazin, B., Lenormand, R., Lasseux, D. and Quintard, M., 2002. On the ability of a Darcy-scale model to capture wormhole formation during the dissolution of a porous medium. J. Fluid Mech., 457, pp.213-254

[3] Cooper, M.P., Sharma, R.P., Magni, S., Blach, T.P., Radlinski, A.P., Drabik, K., Tengattini, A. and Szymczak, P., 2023. 4D tomography reveals a complex relationship between wormhole advancement and permeability variation in dissolving rocks. Advances in Water Resources, 175, p.104407

[4] Budek, A. and Szymczak, P., 2012. Network models of dissolution of porous media. Phys. Rev. E 86, 056318.

How to cite: Dzikowski, M., Szymczak, P., Woś, D., Majkut, M., and Kosiński, T.: Insights from high-speed in-situ imaging of wormhole growth in limestone cores., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18392, 2025.

EGU25-20380 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

The fully implicit water mixing approach for the efficient simulation of reactive transport 

Jordi Petchamé-Guerrero, Jesus Carrera, and Jingjing Wang

Reactive transport is a phenomenon resulting from the interaction and coupling of solute transport and chemical reactions. A new method to solve reactive transport known as Water Mixing Approach (WMA) was introduced by Soler-Sagarra et al. (2022). The idea is to interpret solute transport as water mixing and advection, where diffusion and dispersion are simulated as water exchange instead of Fickian solute flux. The WMA has the advantage of decoupling transport and chemistry. Transport computations are restricted to the evaluation of mixing ratios. This way, reactive transport computations are restricted to reactive mixing calculations, which can be performed separately for every target (node, cell, or particle, depending on the approach adopted to simulate transport). This facilitates parallelisation. However, the original work only considered the explicit case, which is conditionally stable and therefore requires artificial values of the dispersion coefficient to avoid numerical instabilities. We present a formulation of the WMA that is implicit both in transport, to ensure stability, and in chemical reactions to be able to simulate fast reactions. The implicit formulation requires lumping the reactive term. We test the validity of the approach by comparison with analytical solutions and the Direct Substitution Approach (DSA) method in a case with 2 adjacent mineral zones in equilibrium, and in a denitrification case with two redox reactions. We find that the proposed approach is extremely efficient and accurate for small dispersion cases.

How to cite: Petchamé-Guerrero, J., Carrera, J., and Wang, J.: The fully implicit water mixing approach for the efficient simulation of reactive transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20380, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20380, 2025.

EGU25-20876 | Posters on site | HS8.1.2

Numerical Modeling of Mineral Dissolution in Acidic Environments: A Step Towards Advancing CCS Applications  

Kristian Nascimento Telöken, Marcos Antonio Klunk, Adolpho Herbert Augustin, Henrique Serrat, Tiago Jonatan Girelli, and Farid Chemale Jr

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a key strategy in mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. By capturing CO₂ from industrial sources and storing it in deep geological formations, CCS offers a pathway to reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The success of CCS relies on understanding fluid-mineral interactions, reactive transport processes, and the long-term stability of geological storage systems. This study investigates mineral dissolution in acidic environments using numerical simulations as a foundation for reactive transport modeling in geological systems. The research focuses on developing and validating computational methods that can accurately predict the behavior of minerals exposed to acidic conditions, similar to those encountered in CO2 storage scenarios. In this study, ANSYS Fluent was employed to simulate the dissolution of calcite (CaCO3), serving as a representative mineral for the methodology due to its abundance in potential storage formations and well-documented reaction kinetics. The numerical setup comprises a rectangular domain with a centrally positioned circular mineral sample, allowing detailed observation of dissolution patterns and fluid flow characteristics. The fluid enters the domain with a defined H⁺ ion concentration, triggering a chemical reaction, CaCO3(s) + H⁺ → Ca²⁺ + HCO3-. The simulation incorporates multiple physical and chemical processes, including advection, diffusion, and surface reactions. A comprehensive mesh sensitivity analysis ensures numerical accuracy and solution independence. The study evaluates the spatial and temporal evolution of ion concentration distributions and reaction rates. The numerical results are verified and validated against numerical and experimental data from the literature. The developed methodology includes a detailed consideration of boundary conditions, numerical schemes, and convergence criteria. While focused on calcite, the framework is adaptable to other minerals and reaction systems. The research addresses common challenges in numerical modeling of dissolution processes, such as handling moving boundaries and accurately representing reaction kinetics. The results provide insights into the fundamental mechanisms controlling mineral dissolution under acidic conditions. Analyzing concentration profiles and reaction rates helps identify rate-limiting steps and optimal conditions for dissolution processes. These findings directly impact understanding the porosity and permeability evolution in geological formations exposed to CO₂ rich fluids. This study establishes a foundation for more complex investigations involving multiphase systems and geological storage scenarios. The methodology can be extended to study various aspects of CCS implementation, from reservoir-scale simulations to detailed analysis of wellbore integrity. By advancing our understanding of fluid-mineral interactions and providing validated numerical tools, this research contributes to developing effective storage systems and risk minimization strategies, ultimately supporting CCS's role in global greenhouse gas reduction efforts.

How to cite: Nascimento Telöken, K., Klunk, M. A., Augustin, A. H., Serrat, H., Girelli, T. J., and Chemale Jr, F.: Numerical Modeling of Mineral Dissolution in Acidic Environments: A Step Towards Advancing CCS Applications , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20876, 2025.

EGU25-634 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.3

Estimating sub-core permeability using coreflood saturation data: a coupled physics-informed deep learning approach 

Anirban Chakraborty, Avinoam Rabinovich, and Ziv Moreno

Estimating multiphase flow properties, particularly permeability, is critical for addressing critical challenges in subsurface engineering applications such as CO2 sequestration, efficient oil and gas recovery, and groundwater contaminant remediation. At the sub-core scale, accurate determination of permeability is vital for understanding flow dynamics and reservoir characterization. However, traditional estimation methods, which rely heavily on numerical simulations, are computationally expensive and time-intensive, limiting their scalability for large-scale or real-time applications. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have emerged as a promising alternative due to their ability to learn complex input-output relationships, enabling rapid predictions. Despite their potential, standard data-driven deep neural networks (DNNs) encounter substantial challenges when data availability is limited, often resulting in suboptimal performance and unreliable predictions. Additionally, these models heavily rely on the quality of the measurements, making them sensitive to noise and inaccuracies in the dataPhysics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), a class of DNNs that incorporate physical laws as soft constraints, have demonstrated exceptional robustness in addressing inverse problems under data-scarce conditions. By embedding the governing equations into the learning process, PINNs bridge the gap between data-driven and physics-based modeling approaches. Nevertheless, the application of PINNs to inverse problems is often scenario-specific, requiring retraining when transitioning to new conditions or settings. While recent studies have begun leveraging PINNs as surrogate models to efficiently solve forward problems across varying conditions, their full potential in generating datasets for coupled systems remains underexplored. In this study, we present an innovative framework that integrates a PINNs-based surrogate model with a data-driven DNN to accurately and efficiently estimate a 1D heterogeneous permeability profile using sub-core saturation measurements. The surrogate PINNs system was pre-trained to solve a 1D steady-state two-phase flow problem, incorporating capillary pressure heterogeneity and spanning a wide range of flow conditions. This pre-trained PINNs system was subsequently employed to generate an extensive dataset for training a DNN, which establishes a direct mapping between permeability, flow conditions, and measured saturations at the sub-core level. By coupling these two systems, our approach enables the rapid prediction of permeability profiles based on observed flow conditions and saturation measurements, bypassing the computational burden of traditional numerical simulations. The coupled framework demonstrated remarkable accuracy and robustness, achieving average misfits below 1% when validated against actual permeability profiles. Its computational efficiency also facilitated the development of a stochastic extension, allowing the system to handle noisy or contaminated data while quantifying uncertainties. This enhanced solution, capable of delivering results in less than 15 seconds, significantly improves the reliability and applicability of the method for real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the approach successfully reconstructed 1D permeability structures from 3D datasets and generated 1D saturation profiles under varying conditions, achieving an average misfit of approximately 3%. These findings highlight the potential of integrating PINNs with data-driven models for high-fidelity, efficient estimation of flow properties in heterogeneous systems. The proposed method offers a powerful tool for advancing subsurface flow characterization, with broad implications for both scientific research and practical applications.

How to cite: Chakraborty, A., Rabinovich, A., and Moreno, Z.: Estimating sub-core permeability using coreflood saturation data: a coupled physics-informed deep learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-634, 2025.

EGU25-775 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.3

Dynamic coupling of flow and surfactant adsorption at interfaces in a heterogeneous pore network  

Debanik Bhattacharjee, Guy Ramon, and Yaniv Edery

Soil and rock formations experience variation in saturation and chemical composition over time that may alter relative saturation of one phase or the other due to change in interfacial tension (IFT) at the pore structure. We can physically describe this process within a porous network hosting two phases where one initially invades the other and then surfactants are introduced to the invading phase and alter the IFT of the interfaces, thus leading to further invasion. This study explores the dynamic interplay between fluid flow and surfactant adsorption in porous media, focusing on the spatio-temporal evolution of invasion patterns in heterogeneous pore networks. We develop a time-dependent pore network model (PNM) to simulate the effects of surfactant-induced IFT reduction on two-phase flow under constant driving pressure. The initial invasion follows invasion percolation theory, and pressure drops across the network are calculated using a random resistor network and mass conservation equations. Node-specific flux and velocity are derived via the Hagen-Poiseuille law. Surfactant adsorption is modeled using Langmuir kinetics, capturing its impact on fluid-fluid and solid-fluid interfaces within the invaded path. Over time, reduced IFT and contact angle alterations trigger secondary invasions, reshaping the invasion patterns. The model investigates how pore-scale heterogeneity and reaction timescales influence this evolution. Results indicate that invasion patterns evolve with surfactant mass transfer and network heterogeneity, scaling with the cumulative Gaussian distribution used for pore allocation. These dynamic patterns align with Kosugi’s quasi-static model of water retention versus capillary pressure, emphasizing the significance of IFT alterations. This work provides theoretical insights into surfactant-driven invasion dynamics in porous media and their dependence on physical and chemical parameters. 

How to cite: Bhattacharjee, D., Ramon, G., and Edery, Y.: Dynamic coupling of flow and surfactant adsorption at interfaces in a heterogeneous pore network , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-775, 2025.

EGU25-891 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.3

Unraveling Salt Precipitation Dynamics in Heterogeneous Porous Media via Time-Lapse Micro-Computed Tomography 

Puyan Bakhshi, Ali Chaudhry, and Johan Alexander Huisman

The evaporation of saline water from porous media is a critical global concern, influencing diverse applications such as water management, subsurface energy storage, construction materials, and agriculture. Understanding this process is essential, as it may lead to salt precipitation within pores that can partially or fully block them. This can alter the hydraulic properties of the porous medium, affecting fluid and solute transport. Most studies dealing with salt precipitation during evaporation have focused on homogeneous porous media, with limited attention to heterogeneous systems. This study addresses this gap by investigating vertical textural contrasts in porous media, specifically sand columns with a distinctive vertical interface between fine and coarse sand. Previous studies dealing with evaporation have shown that in such configurations, water migrates from coarse to fine sand, creating an additional evaporation surface at the vertical interface. This potentially leads to subflorescent salt precipitation at the interface, which can significantly impact transport properties. However, previous characterization methods, such as surface imaging, infrared thermography, and low-resolution medical computed tomography, fail to provide direct visual evidence of these processes within the sand matrix. In this study, we aim to bridge this gap by employing time-lapse micro-computed tomography (µ-CT) to provide high-resolution visualization and quantification of water movement and salt distribution during evaporation. The experiments use a heterogeneous column divided into half fine sand (particle size ~0.1 mm) next to coarse sand (particle size ~1 mm) with a sharp vertical interface. The column was saturated with NaCl solution and underwent evaporative drying at room temperature. µ-CT enabled the characterization of salt distribution on the surface, at the vertical interface, and within the porous media, while mass loss measurements were used to quantify evaporation rates. The spatial and temporal variability of salt precipitation was analyzed to determine its dynamic effects on evaporation and transport processes. Overall, this study enhances the understanding of evaporation and salt precipitation in heterogeneous porous media, offering valuable insights for fields such as soil science, hydrology, and energy storage, where controlling or predicting these processes is crucial.

How to cite: Bakhshi, P., Chaudhry, A., and Huisman, J. A.: Unraveling Salt Precipitation Dynamics in Heterogeneous Porous Media via Time-Lapse Micro-Computed Tomography, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-891, 2025.

EGU25-3071 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.3

Intermittent flow paths in biofilms grown in a microfluidic channel 

Kerem Bozkurt, Christoph Lohrmann, Felix Weinhardt, Daniel Hanke, Raphael Hopp, Christian Holm, and Holger Class

Biofilms, complex microbial communities embedded in an extracellular matrix, are significantly influenced by flow-induced shear stress, which creates a competition between biofilm growth and detachment. In this study, biofilms of Pseudomonas fluorescens were grown in a microfluidic channel and exposed to aqueous flow which includes nutrients at varying velocities. Real-time observations using transmitted-light microscopy coupled with a camera revealed that biofilms can adapt to their conditions and grow accordingly. In some cases, intermittent flow-path regimes emerged, maintaining a dynamic balance with biofilm growth. This balance was observed within certain flow velocity ranges, corresponding shear forces, nutrient availability, and biofilm cohesiveness.

  • At very low nutrient velocities, biofilm growth was inhibited due to nutrient limitations. However, when nutrient concentration was increased, growth occurred briefly without intermittency, likely because the biofilm adapted to low-shear conditions by forming a highly permeable and porous structure. 
  • When the mean velocity was sufficiently high for a given nutrient concentration, biofilm growth resumed. Under these conditions, the biofilm adapted to the challenging environment, withstanding shear forces and enabling the formation of intermittent flow paths.
  • Adding pore bodies to the flow channel introduced regions of lower shear stress. The biofilm adapted to these low-shear conditions, and grow in the pore bodies but could not survive in the channel, highlighting its adaptability to varying shear environments. 
  • As the mean velocity of nutrient flow increased further, the frequency of flow paths initially rose but eventually disrupted the dynamic balance by exceeding the critical shear stress. This led to higher detachment rates and ultimately inhibited biofilm growth.

As a result, the intermittent flow-path regime, in dynamic balance with biofilm growth, is defined within specific ranges of flow velocity, nutrient availability, and the ratio of shear stress to the biofilm’s ability to resist these forces, which we also confirm by comparison to a numerical model.

How to cite: Bozkurt, K., Lohrmann, C., Weinhardt, F., Hanke, D., Hopp, R., Holm, C., and Class, H.: Intermittent flow paths in biofilms grown in a microfluidic channel, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3071, 2025.

As an important unconventional natural gas resource, the charging mechanism of tight gas is of great significance for the accumulation of natural gas. Although previous studies have mainly focused on qualitative evaluation, there is a lack of quantitative evaluation research on the charging process of tight gas. Consequently, this paper uses an example from the tight sandstones of the Upper Triassic Xujiahe Formation, Sichuan Basin, China, by employing physical charging simulation of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) coupling displacement, physical property analyses, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and high-pressure mercury injection (HPMI) experiments, combined with numerical simulation methods, reveals the tight gas charging mechanism. The principal findings are: (1) The tight reservoirs of the Xujiahe Formation can be classified into four types based on the differences in pore structure. From Type I to IV reservoirs, the distribution of pore sizes (as shown by NMR T2 spectra) gradually transitions from a bimodal shape dominated by large pores to a single peak shape dominated by small pores. (2) Through multi-factor analysis, a tight gas saturation evaluation model is established that considers reservoir types and pressure and can predict the tight gas charging process and gas saturation in different types of tight reservoirs. (3) The charging process of tight gas is controlled by a combination of charging pressure, pore structure, and water film. Higher charging pressure has a significant impact on the gas content of poor reservoirs. Under the same charging pressure, the gas saturation decreases with the decrease in of pore size. As the charging pressure increases, the influence of the water film diminishes. (4) Based on the principles of mechanical equilibrium and material balance, a numerical model for tight gas charging and reservoir formation is established for three types of source-reservoir combinations: “lower-generation and upper-storage type”, “upper-generation and lower-storage type”, and “interlayer reservoir type”. In the “lower-generation and upper-storage” type, the gas saturation gradually improves from bottom to top. As the thickness of the source rock increases, the gas saturation in the middle and lower parts increases rapidly. The thickness of high-quality source rock has a significant impact on the gas-bearing properties of Type I and Type II reservoirs. In the “upper-generation and lower-storage” type, as the thickness of the source rock increases, the gas-bearing stable zone grows until it becomes stable. For the “interlayer reservoir type”, with the increase in the thickness of the interlayer, the gas saturation of the sand bodies in the middle and lower parts of Type I and Type II reservoirs exhibits a downward tendency, and the gas-bearing capacity of the thick interlayer is lower than that of the thin interlayer. This research not only aids in understanding the accumulation process of tight gas but also provides a theoretical foundation for the accurate prediction of tight gas sweet spots.

How to cite: Shao, H. and Wang, M.: Dynamic charging mechanism of tight gas reservoirs based on experimental and numerical simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3077, 2025.

EGU25-3537 | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

The Role of Wind Velocity in Saline Water Evaporation from Porous Media and Surface Salt Crystallization Dynamics 

Sahar Jannesarahmadi, Milad Aminzadeh, Rainer Helmig, Bastian Oesterle, and Nima Shokri

Saline water evaporation from porous media with the corresponding surface salt crystallization patterns play a vital role in many environmental and engineering applications. While the impact of factors such as type and concentration of salt, particle size and angularity, and ambient temperature and humidity are relatively well characterized [1]–[3], the influence of wind and aerodynamic conditions on saline water evaporation and salt crystallization is not fully understood. We conducted a series of laboratory experiments in a wind tunnel to systematically investigate the effect of wind flow on saline water evaporation and dynamics of salt crystallization. Cylindrical sand columns (D: 5 cm – H: 20 cm) were placed in the test section of the wind tunnel. Surface of the samples were exposed to uniform mean wind velocities of 0.5 and 5 m/s. To keep samples fully saturated during the evaporation experiments, sand columns were supplied from Mariotte bottles containing 10, 15, and 20% NaCl solutions. Evaporation rates were monitored by measuring mass losses from Mariotte bottles, while salt crystallization patterns were captured using an optical camera positioned above the surface of columns. Preliminary results indicate that variation in aerodynamic conditions and turbulence patterns, driven by changes in wind velocity and surface roughness (due to crystal growth), significantly alter evaporation rates and salt crystallization process. Distinct crystallization patterns were observed with variation of wind velocity with possible influences on the evaporative fluxes. Using the measured data, we will identify the key effects of air flow regimes coupled with the salt concentration on evaporative losses and the evolution of crystallized salts at the surface, which will be important for a wide range of environmental and hydrological applications.

[1] S. M. S. Shokri‐Kuehni, B. Raaijmakers, T. Kurz, D. Or, R. Helmig, and N. Shokri, “Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore‐Scale Processes to Field‐Scale Responses,” Water Resour. Res., vol. 56, no. 2, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.1029/2019WR026707.

[2] S. Jannesarahmadi, M. Aminzadeh, R. Helmig, D. Or, and N. Shokri, “Quantifying Salt Crystallization Impact on Evaporation Dynamics From Porous Surfaces,” Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 51, no. 22, pp. 1–10, Nov. 2024, doi: 10.1029/2024GL111080.

[3] M. Norouzi Rad and N. Shokri, “Effects of grain angularity on NaCl precipitation in porous media during evaporation,” Water Resour. Res., vol. 50, no. 11, pp. 9020–9030, Nov. 2014, doi: 10.1002/2014WR016125.

How to cite: Jannesarahmadi, S., Aminzadeh, M., Helmig, R., Oesterle, B., and Shokri, N.: The Role of Wind Velocity in Saline Water Evaporation from Porous Media and Surface Salt Crystallization Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3537, 2025.

EGU25-5358 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Anisotropy on relative permeability curve under the influence of gravity 

Changhun Lee, Seung-Wook Ha, and Kang-Kun Lee

The relative permeability–saturation (krs) relationship is a macroscopic representation of microscale flow characteristics between multiphase immiscible fluids, governed by the interplay among capillary, viscous, and gravitational forces. Previous studies on two phase fluid flow have primarily derived the krs relationship from horizontal core-flooding experiments while neglecting the influence of gravity. However, frequent advent of vertical flows caused by conditions such as macroscale heterogeneity, brine extraction, and CO2 injection through horizontal well, emphasizes non-negligible gravitational effects varying with the direction of displacement. This study aims to provide experimental evidence of anisotropy on krs relationship induced by gravitational forces, contributing to a deeper understanding of gravity’s role in multiphase flow systems. Steady-state relative permeability tests using a 1-meter acrylic column tightly packed with glass beads and two immiscible fluids were performed under various flow directions. In addition, several total flow rates and beads sizes were used to adjust dimensionless capillary and bond number, which indicate different interplays among three governing forces. Our experiments revealed the differences in the krs relationship between upward and downward flow directions, suggesting that the isotropic krs assumption may not fully capture these dynamics. Under conditions of higher bond number, such as in the finer glass beads, the anisotropy on krs relationship were weaker, indicating the influence of gravitational forces on its anisotropy. This study underscores the need to account for anisotropy on krs relationships under dynamic flow conditions.

Project Acknowledgement

This work was supported by Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation Planning (KETEP) grant funded by the Korea government (MOTIE) (20212010200010, Technical development of enhancing CO2 injection efficiency and increase storage capacity)

How to cite: Lee, C., Ha, S.-W., and Lee, K.-K.: Anisotropy on relative permeability curve under the influence of gravity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5358, 2025.

EGU25-6197 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Pore-scale shear distributions in unsaturated porous media and their role in transport and mixing 

Jose Arnal, Guillem Sole-Mari, Oshri Borgman, Tanguy Le Borgne, and Tomás Aquino

Understanding the probability distributions of flow velocities in heterogeneous porous media is crucial for the study of transport phenomena, as velocity variability controls residence times and dispersion phenomena. However, our knowledge of velocity distributions and their relation to medium structure remains incomplete, especially under partially-saturated conditions, where phase heterogeneity plays a key role in determining the flow structure. In addition, the distributions of shear (the spatial rate of change of velocity transverse to the flow) are essential for understanding the impact of flow on mixing processes, because they represent a key control on solute plume deformation and its interplay with diffusion. Yet, these distributions are far less explored, particularly at the pore scale and under unsaturated conditions. This gap limits our ability to predict the impact of microscopic dynamics on macroscopic plume structure.

In this work, we focus on pore-scale velocity and shear distributions in unsaturated systems. Velocity fields are obtained through numerical simulations based on experimental data for the structure of the medium and fluid-phase distributions. The media are quasi-two-dimensional, with cylindrical pillars of variable radii and different correlation structures, and the flow conditions are such that the spatial phase distributions are time-independent. We characterize velocity and shear distributions and use this information to parameterize Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) models to predict solute transport and mixing.

How to cite: Arnal, J., Sole-Mari, G., Borgman, O., Le Borgne, T., and Aquino, T.: Pore-scale shear distributions in unsaturated porous media and their role in transport and mixing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6197, 2025.

EGU25-7028 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Non-invasive imaging of the effect of injection strategy on the spatial and temporal development of enzymatically-induced calcite precipitation 

Samira Emadi, Puyan Bakhshi, Andreas Pohlmeier, and Johan Alexander Huisman

Induced calcite precipitation, where CaCO3 closes voids inside porous media and unconsolidated samples are solidified, is an important technique in geotechnical engineering. To optimize these applications, it is crucial to understand how the dynamics of mineral precipitation affect flow and transport in porous media. The aim of this study is to investigate how different injection strategies affect the spatial and temporal development of calcite precipitation using time-lapse non-invasive imaging with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and X-ray microcomputed tomography (µXRCT). These two imaging methods are complementary because µXRCT aims to detect structural changes of the solid matrix, whereas MRI focuses on the liquid phase in the pore space. Together, these methods enable time-resolved observations of the three-dimensional development of porosity, and thus have the potential to offer valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of the precipitation process.

 

We performed two distinct types of experiments to induce precipitation by simultaneous injection of a cementing solution consisting of 0.5 M CaCl2 and 0.5 M urea and an enzyme solution containing 5.0 g/l of Jack Bean meal into homogeneous sand packings prepared in 30 mm long sample cuvettes with a diameter of 15 mm. Two injection strategies were realized. In a first experiment, a constant flow rate of 0.01 mL/s was maintained during six injection cycles. Pressure development was monitored in parallel. In a second experiment, the solutions were injected  at a constant pressure that was increased stepwise during six cycles from initially 50 mbar to 300 mbar to maintain moderate flow rates. Following each cycle, both samples were imaged using XRCT and MRI and the intrinsic permeability was determined.

 

Imaging results indicate that calcite preciptation occured more strongly close to the inlet, as manifested by water content and relaxation maps from MRI and density maps from XRCT. Only during the last two injection cycles, zones with increased precipitation became visible in the center of the column. The MRI relaxation maps suggest a reduction in pore size due to precipitation, which agreed with increased surface-to-volume ratio of the pores. Vertical porosity profiles derived from XRCT showed an average change of 12 and 11 vol.% for the constant flow and constant pressure inection strategies, respectively, and confirmed the non-uniform distribution observed with MRI. The permeability decreased by two orders of magnitude for both injection strategies. However, this decrease was achieved already after 90 injected pore volumes in case of the constant pressure injection strategy, whereas the constant flow strategy required 165 pore volumes for a comparable decrease. This is attributed to the increased tendency for preferential flow in case of the constant-rate injection strategy, but this needs to be confirmed through a detailed analysis of the variability of calcite precipation within the sample cross-section. Overall, this study showed the feasibility of monitoring induced calcite precipitation using both MRI and XRCT.

How to cite: Emadi, S., Bakhshi, P., Pohlmeier, A., and Huisman, J. A.: Non-invasive imaging of the effect of injection strategy on the spatial and temporal development of enzymatically-induced calcite precipitation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7028, 2025.

EGU25-9531 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

How does imaging help unveil chaotic mixing in porous rocks? 

Atefeh Vafaie, Iman R. Kivi, Sojwal Manoorkar, Nihal M. Darraj, Mohamed Saleh, Francesco Gomez, Marc Lamblin, Benoit Cordonnier, Isabelle Bihannic, Tanguy Le Borgne, Samuel Krevor, and Joris Heyman

Geochemical reactions in porous rocks are typically scaled up using effective reaction parameters derived under well-mixed conditions. Such well-mixed conditions are often absent in natural settings. While conventional transport theories based fundamentally on diffusion and dispersion processes can not fully capture the state of mixing, several lines of evidence point to the dominance of chaotic solute mixing. Yet, proving the existence of chaotic mixing in porous rocks remains unresolved mostly due to the limitations in directly observing pore-scale processes. In this work, we present direct evidence of chaotic microscale trajectories in porous rock samples by performing fast high-resolution X-ray tomography at the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF). We utilize a custom-designed core holder and highly permeable sandstone and sand pack samples to achieve notably high Peclet numbers during the co-injection of two miscible, highly viscous mixtures of glycerin and brine. These high Peclet numbers are crucial for visualizing chaotic trajectories within the rock pores, as they allow the deformation of fluid fronts to dominate before molecular diffusion blurs the patterns. The existence of such trajectories could significantly enhance microscale concentration gradients, potentially leading to chemical reaction rates that differ from conventional reactive transport model predictions. This difference underscores the need to update kinematic models to incorporate the coupling between chaotic mixing and chemical reactions in porous media for a better understanding and quantification of transport and storage processes in the subsurface.

How to cite: Vafaie, A., Kivi, I. R., Manoorkar, S., Darraj, N. M., Saleh, M., Gomez, F., Lamblin, M., Cordonnier, B., Bihannic, I., Le Borgne, T., Krevor, S., and Heyman, J.: How does imaging help unveil chaotic mixing in porous rocks?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9531, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9531, 2025.

EGU25-11315 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Heterogeneity effects on gravity current migration and mixing in porous media 

Albert Jiménez-Ramos, Marco Dentz, and Juan José Hidalgo

CO2 sequestration is a promising method to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions. When CO2 is injected into a saline aquifer, its buoyancy leads to the formation of a gravity current that migrates laterally, while CO2 dissolves into the underlying brine, creating a high-density mixture that can trigger fingering instabilities. In this study, we investigate the migration of this gravity current and the mixing of CO2 with brine in heterogeneous porous media. Heterogeneity is modeled using horizontally stratified media and multi-Gaussian log-normal permeability fields, characterized by the variance of the log-permeability and its correlation length. We examine how heterogeneity influences the time-evolution of the gravity current and CO2-brine mixing by analyzing factors such as dissolution fluxes, residual buoyant mass, the length of the CO2-brine interface, interface width, and mixing volume. Additionally, we explore the impact of different Rayleigh numbers, correlation lengths, and variances on mixing behavior. Our findings aim to enhance the understanding of CO2 storage in geological formations.

How to cite: Jiménez-Ramos, A., Dentz, M., and Hidalgo, J. J.: Heterogeneity effects on gravity current migration and mixing in porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11315, 2025.

EGU25-12082 | Orals | HS8.1.3

Impact of heterogeneity and its alteration by erosion on solute transport in unsaturated media 

Ran Holtzman, Ali Saeibehrouzi, Petr Denissenko, and Soroush Abolfathi

Solute transport in unsaturated media exhibits a complex, nonmonotonic dependence on fluid saturation and flow rates. Adding to the intricate dependence of multiphase flow and solute transport on the heterogeneity across scales is their coupling: the sensitivity of the concentration fields to the spatial distribution of the fluid phases and their velocity fields. 

Here, we study solute transport following partial displacement of one fluid by the other, where the fluids are immiscible and hence solute transport occurs only in one fluid and the fluid-fluid interface acts as barrier for transport. We combine pore-scale simulations (using openfoam) with microfluidic experiments to examine the role of the pore-scale heterogeneity structure (in terms of its spatial correlation) and its evolution with chemical and mechanical erosion. We find that increasing the correlation length in particle size increases fluid connectivity, and thus the solute spreading by reducing the number of advection-dominated regions. Decreasing saturation of carrier fluid (in which dissolved solutes are transported) is found to promote dead-ends (slow flow regions), and thus of diffusion.
 
We compare two simple forms of erosion in granular media: mechanical where the smallest particles are washed away, vs. chemical where all particles are shrunk by uniform dissolution. We find that mechanical erosion, unlike chemical erosion, alters the pore space morphology toward a multi-modal variation in pore sizes, which shifts transport towards a more non-Fickian spreading. For saturated media, erosion induces a non-monotonic effect on solute spreading, promoting spreading at the diffusion-dominated (low Peclet) regime while suppressing it at higher rates (high Peclet). Under unsaturated conditions, erosion decreases spreading by reducing local velocities through widening available pathways, and enhances mixing by minimizing dead-ends which enhances the relative strength of advection. 

How to cite: Holtzman, R., Saeibehrouzi, A., Denissenko, P., and Abolfathi, S.: Impact of heterogeneity and its alteration by erosion on solute transport in unsaturated media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12082, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12082, 2025.

EGU25-13723 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

A numerical lamellae method based on flow maps 

Daniel Dominguez-Vazquez and Tomás Aquino

A hyperbolic description of the problem of solute transport using a deterministic and Lagrangian formulation that combines characteristics of the classical formulations based on the Fokker-Planck (FP) and Langevin equations is developed. This formulation is based on a Liouville master equation, whose hyperbolicity allows for tracing the concentrations along characteristic lines in the augmented phase space composed by solute particle locations and a set of (time-independent) random coefficients used to define a source term that introduces the noise added to the system, in lieu of (time-dependent) stochastic processes. This circumvents the use of stochastic calculus and eliminates the diffusive term of the master equation, at the expense of increasing the dimensionality of the joint probability density function (PDF) of solute particle locations. The characteristic lines define flow maps for the joint PDF and its support such that all one-point space-time statistical information to study mixing and dispersion respectively is contained in them. Therefore, diffusion is modeled with kinematics parametrically dependent on random coefficients. This approach can be combined with numerical algorithms to solve ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that are unaffected by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) stability condition, do not suffer from Gibbs oscillations, do not require (order-reducing) filtering and regularization techniques, and do not rely on standard Monte Carlo sampling. Because of these reasons this formulation offers more accuracy and a lower computational cost in comparison to Eulerian grid-based and Lagrangian particle tracking solvers. To find the proper noise term to add, we impose that averaging the Liouville equation over the coefficients must lead to the FP equation, which leads to a classical closure problem for the moments of the joint PDF. However, assuming a local linearization in concordance with the Ranz transform used in the lamellae description, a simple closure based on truncated central moments becomes exact and so does this hyperbolic description, which accounts for diffusion in all directions. In this talk, I will discuss the methodological advantages of using a hyperbolic description of mixing, and show how it can be used to construct a numerical lamellae method for arbitrarily shaped initial concentration profiles.

How to cite: Dominguez-Vazquez, D. and Aquino, T.: A numerical lamellae method based on flow maps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13723, 2025.

EGU25-13767 | Orals | HS8.1.3

Fluid-fluid interface dynamics in an imperfect Hele-Shaw cell: A novel computational method for hysteresis and energy dissipation 

Mykyta V. Chubynsky, Marco Dentz, Jordi Ortín, and Ran Holtzman

In a cylindrical capillary or a Hele-Shaw cell with perfectly flat walls, the equilibrium position of the interface between two fluids given the external conditions such as the pressure head is unique. If the external conditions change infinitely slowly (quasistatically), the interface follows this equilibrium, thus, its position is history-independent; there is no energy dissipation in this quasistatic limit. In contrast, in disordered porous and fractured media there are multiple equilibria, leading to history dependence (hysteresis) of the interface evolution even in the quasistatic limit, and Haines jumps of the interface between these equilibria lead to dissipation. An imperfect Hele-Shaw cell (with a gap width randomly varying in space) provides a simple model system in which these phenomena (both in the quasistatic limit and beyond) can be studied, promoting understanding of multiphase flow in a rough fracture as well as providing insights into more complex, 3D porous media. However, even in this simple model the evolution of the interface is nontrivial due to the nonlocality brought about by the resulting fluid flow, which, in principle, requires solving the Stokes equations for the flow in the whole domain even when only the interface evolution is of interest.

We present a novel spectral approach for computing the interface evolution in such a system, based on the Fourier expansion of the interface shape at each time step, confirming its accuracy via comparison to the much more computationally costly numerical solutions of the Stokes equations. We use our approach to study the (microscopic) dynamics of the interface relaxation towards equilibrium, as well as the (macroscopic)  pressure-saturation trajectories following drainage/imibibition cycles. We find that even for a single perturbation (“defect”) in an otherwise perfectly uniform cell, interface relaxation dynamics in a Haines jump is a complex, multistage process. Nonetheless, we present a remarkably simple model relying on the concepts of viscous and "dry friction" dissipation, that is able to predict the pressure-saturation cycles in random media. Our findings are a promising step towards an upscaled model of flows in rough fractures, where from the macroscale properties of the roughness one could obtain the averaged interface dynamics.

How to cite: Chubynsky, M. V., Dentz, M., Ortín, J., and Holtzman, R.: Fluid-fluid interface dynamics in an imperfect Hele-Shaw cell: A novel computational method for hysteresis and energy dissipation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13767, 2025.

EGU25-14592 | Orals | HS8.1.3

Hydrogen vs Methane: Microscopic Flow Dynamics in Fractured Reservoir Rocks for Energy Storage 

Sojwal Manoorkar, Gulce Kalyoncu Pakkaner, Hamdi Omar, Soetkin Barbaix, Dominique Ceursters, Maxime Latinis, Stefanie Van Offenwert, and Tom Bultreys

Underground hydrogen storage in saline aquifers offers a promising solution to address seasonal fluctuations in renewable energy supply. Repurposing natural gas storage facilities for hydrogen leverages existing infrastructure; however, the distinct flow behaviors of hydrogen-brine and methane-brine systems, particularly in fractured reservoirs and sealing caprocks, remain poorly understood. This study investigates the microscopic two-phase flow dynamics of hydrogen (H₂), methane (CH₄), and their mixtures in fractured karstic limestone from the  Loenhout natural gas storage facility in Belgium. Experiments on primary drainage (gas injection) and imbibition (withdrawal) were conducted under reservoir conditions (10 MPa, 65°C) using three different rock samples to examine the influence of fracture geometry on fluid invasion and recovery efficiency. Our findings reveal that while H₂ and CH₄ reach similar gas saturations after primary drainage, H₂ forms a greater number of smaller ganglia due to its discontinuous invasion in rough fractures. Fracture aperture variability and roughness significantly affect flow dynamics, gas trapping, and recovery. Furthermore, steady-state relative permeability experiments demonstrate that hydrogen’s relative permeability closely matches that of methane but is substantially lower than nitrogen, emphasizing nitrogen’s inadequacy as a proxy for hydrogen in reservoir simulations. These results highlight the importance of precise pore-scale modeling to improve field-scale predictions, ensuring effective and secure hydrogen storage in fractured reservoirs like Loenhout.

How to cite: Manoorkar, S., Kalyoncu Pakkaner, G., Omar, H., Barbaix, S., Ceursters, D., Latinis, M., Van Offenwert, S., and Bultreys, T.: Hydrogen vs Methane: Microscopic Flow Dynamics in Fractured Reservoir Rocks for Energy Storage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14592, 2025.

EGU25-15356 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Pore-scale understandings for steady-state two-phase flow in porous sandstone from full-range pore connectivity quantification 

Juncheng Qiao, Jianhui Zeng, Shu Jiang, and Dongxia Chen

Fluid/chemical transport in the connected pore network of porous sandstone with variable permeability governs numerous subsurface energetic, environmental, and industrial activities. In this work, we compile a multi-scale pore connectivity evaluation by integrated pore structure characterization involving casting thin section, scanning electron microscope, nuclear magnetic resonance, X-ray computed tomography, and mercury intrusion porosimetries. The pore connected pattern, connective ratio, and connected full-range pore size distribution (CPSD) are obtained by the determination of full-range pore size distribution and empirical correlations between pore size and connective ratio, upon which the across-scale steady-state multiphase flow physics are further explored incorporating physical simulation experiment and numerical analyses. The scale-invariant connective ratio of conventional sandstone with reticular connection pattern stays at around 0.60, that of low-permeability sandstone ranges from 0.53 to 0.60, exhibiting branch-like connection, and it is avg. 0.31 in tight sandstone with local chain-like pattern, of which the ratio can be predicted by its strong dependence on porosity, permeability, and connected median pore radius. With decreasing pore connectivity, the fractional flow of non-wetting phase in steady-state two-phase flow turns from linear deviated flow to power-law flows. The pore-scale interpretations of multiphase mobility and interaction dynamic by incorporating DLVO theory, augmented Young-Laplace equation, and effective hydraulic radius model suggest that the connected full-range pore size distribution determines the wetting phase mobility and non-wetting phase accessibility, controlling the dynamic of multiphase interaction and build of non-wetting phase pathways. Preferential flow path expansions in the connected pores < 1000 nm, leading to strong differences in the resistance for non-wetting phase flow, are the primary reasons for distinctions in flow regimes. The increasing pores of 30-50 nm in the non-wetting phase flow paths are responsible for the TPG, pressure disorders, and fluid snap-offs, resulting in the power-law flow deviations. A dynamic fractional flux prediction model for non-wetting phase is proposed by modifying the fractal-based Hagen-Poiseuille equation considering flow physics, pore heterogeneity, and critical percolation length scale variations along with flow path expansion in the connected pore system. Comparative analysis indicates that the determination of hydraulic flow diameter  should follow the percolation threshold theory and reliable of porous sandstone is at round R40 of the connected flow pathway.

How to cite: Qiao, J., Zeng, J., Jiang, S., and Chen, D.: Pore-scale understandings for steady-state two-phase flow in porous sandstone from full-range pore connectivity quantification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15356, 2025.

EGU25-17828 | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Modeling enhanced denitrification in groundwater through electron competition among nitrogen species to identify N2O emissions 

Veronica Gonsalez, C. Andrew Ramsburg, and Katherine Muller

Nitrate contamination in groundwater is a pervasive environmental issue with significant ecological and potential human health implications.  Emulsified vegetable oil (EVO) has shown promise for nitrate plume remediation through simulation of indigenous denitrifying populations, but the potential for secondary effects such as nitrous oxide emissions and discharge of dissolved carbon are not well understood. This study is the first adaptation of an electron competition model with steady-state biomass developed for modeling denitrification in wastewater treatment facilities to denitrification in the subsurface environment with biomass growth. The goal of the model is to quantify carbon and nitrogen emissions over the lifetime of a treatment. The model integrates EVO hydrolysis with substrate availability and electron carrier dynamics, incorporating microbial interactions between hydrolyzers and denitrifiers. Key findings reveal that nitrous oxide emissions are significantly influenced by the balance between oxidized and reduced electron carriers, modulated by biomass activity and carbon substrate availability. The hydrolysis of EVO is identified as the rate-limiting step in sustaining denitrification, but incomplete denitrification can occur even at high carbon availability. This research advances the understanding of microbial-mediated denitrification mechanisms and provides insights for identifying the conditions that favor nitrous oxide emissions in Permeable Reactive Barriers (PRBs) for nitrate-contaminated groundwater remediation.

How to cite: Gonsalez, V., Ramsburg, C. A., and Muller, K.: Modeling enhanced denitrification in groundwater through electron competition among nitrogen species to identify N2O emissions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17828, 2025.

EGU25-20497 | Posters on site | HS8.1.3

Drainage in Open Rough-walled Fractures – Comparison of experimental and numerical results 

Insa Neuweiler, Rahul Krishna, Amin Rezaei, Oshri Borgman, Francesco Gomez, and Yves Méheust

Displacement of a wetting by a non-wetting fluid in fractured media is a process with relevance for many applications, such as fluid storage in the subsurface or oil and gas exploitation. How to capture the flow in open rough-walled fractures on the large length scales required for such applications is an open question. It is highly questionable if the two-phase flow equations can be simplified to continuum approaches, such as established for porous media, which would allow for coarse spatial resolutions of a model. For this reason, it is necessary to develop a good understanding of how flow regimes and fracture geometry influence the properties of the fluid distributions during a displacement process that determine the macroscopic behavior. Such properties are, for example, fluid that is immobilized behind the displacement front. While there has been extensive investigation of this question in the context of porous media, studies on rough fractures are relatively scarce.

It is well established that in horizontal settings, the displacement is governed by capillary and viscous forces, resulting in the emergence of various displacement patterns (compact, viscous fingering or capillary fingering). Numerical simulations of the flow process could be helpful to relate the flow conditions and geometrical properties of the aperture field to characteristics of fluid distributions. However, such numerical simulations are not straight forward, as capturing the fluid-fluid surfaces and contact lines requires very fine grids and poor representations of the interfaces can cause large numerical errors. It is thus crucial to validate numerical models with well controlled experiments. As it is necessary to have well controlled conditions for boundary conditions and precise knowledge of the geometrical properties of the fracture aperture, such experiments are challenging.

In this contribution, we compare numerical results to recent results from experiments carried out in a setup featuring a fracture flow cell with self-affine rough walled surfaces and a precisely controlled mean aperture. Different viscosity ratios are obtained by altering the viscosities of both the displacing and the displaced fluids and different capillary numbers are obtained by varying the flow rate imposed through the cell. We compare the experimental findings to Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results obtained by solving the Navier–Stokes equations within the fracture pore space, employing the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface.  We systematically confront the numerical predictions to the experimental results, in terms of various morphological properties of the displacement patterns such as Euler number, cluster size distribution, interfacial length, typical finger width, trapped cluster size distributions or fluid-fluid interface length. From this we infer a range of capillary numbers and viscosity ratios for which the numerical model can be validated as properly predicting the experiments.

How to cite: Neuweiler, I., Krishna, R., Rezaei, A., Borgman, O., Gomez, F., and Méheust, Y.: Drainage in Open Rough-walled Fractures – Comparison of experimental and numerical results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20497, 2025.

EGU25-21286 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.3

Impact of Transient Flow on Reactive Fronts in Porous Media 

Pratyaksh Karan, Satoshi Izumoto, Tanguy Le Borgne, and Joris Heyman

Groundwater flow is subject to transients, due to natural events or human activities (recharge, tides, decontamination, etc.). The occurrence of such temporal fluctuations in the flow field can have significant impact on reactive transport processes, compared to steady flow conditions, especially in reactive fronts. These fronts manifest as localized interfacial regions where chemical reaction occurs in an ambient flow field that brings two or more reactants in contact with each other. Understanding how reaction fronts evolve during transient flows is therefore key to predicting reactive transport in the subsurface. 

In these fronts, reaction rates often depend on the local mixing state of the reactants, which in turn is controlled by the interplay between advective and diffusive processes. Under steady flow conditions, the presence of heterogeneity in the permeability fields has been shown to enhance mixing and reaction at the Darcy scale, due to stretching-enhanced mixing. In contrast, it is currently unknown how transient flows would impact reaction rates. 

Here, we conduct reactive transport experiments with transient flow in both Hele-Shaw and index-matched porous media cells. A steady mixing front is created inside the cell by two opposing injection points, creating of a stagnation point flow. Transient flow is then imposed by varying the ratio of the injection rates, causing a displacement of the stagnation point and the mixing front. A bimolecular chemiluminescent reaction is used to quantify the effective reaction rate within the mixing front at all times. We observe that transient flows increase reactivity compared to steady state conditions, both in the local maximum of reaction rates and in the size of the reactive front.

In the Hele-Shaw cell, the enhancement can be up to 3 times compared to steady conditions. The evolution of the reaction front to the new steady state occurs in a time much shorter than that required for Taylor-Aris dispersion, indicating that the reaction front remains in the ballistic shear regime when the reactivity enhancement is observed. Using the lamellar theory for sheared fronts, we find that the maximum reaction rate should scale with the transient flow strength to the power of 3/4, a prediction that compares well with the experimental observations (0.76±0.03).  

In the porous media cell, we also observe a power law scaling between the reaction rate enhancement and the transient flow magnitude, with an exponent of 0.58±0.01. In contrast to the Hele-Shaw case, we argue that the mixing enhancement is due to longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion. Solving the advection-dispersion-reaction equation for the reaction front near the stagnation point yields a theoretical exponent of 1/2 , which agrees well with experimental observations.

These results indicate that an important part of the biogeochemical activity in the subsurface can occur during transient events. The proposed modeling framework provides a quantitative prediction of such reactive transport dynamics.

How to cite: Karan, P., Izumoto, S., Le Borgne, T., and Heyman, J.: Impact of Transient Flow on Reactive Fronts in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21286, 2025.

Low-emission hydrogen accounted for less than 1 % of global hydrogen production by 2023, but will have to increase more than 100-fold by 2030 according to the International Energy Agency’s net-zero emission scenarios for 2050. Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers are particularly suitable to produce hydrogen from renewable energy sources, yet the currently available technological combinations are considerably more expensive than producing hydrogen from fossil fuels (by 65 % to 810 % according to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s 2021 report). To reduce costs, the materials and dynamic operating conditions in electrolyzers must be optimized, amongst other things with regard to low oxygen concentrations (waste product) at the catalysts. We use a first-principle microscale model for oxygen transport to complement experimental optimization efforts, which are generally expensive and limited by measurement accuracies.

The model deploys the volume of fluid method and accounts for (1) uncertain transport processes in the catalyst layer, (2) numerically challenging two-phase at capillary numbers as low as 2.1 · 10-7 and (3) bubble detachments in channels. The model is validated with respect to flow patterns in microfluidic experiments as well as to pressure drops and bubble velocities within minichannels (30% and 20% match regarding the latter two). The model is numerically stable at operando conditions with at least 0.5 A/cm2 current density in a stochastically reproduced porous transport layer. Uncertain catalyst-side solute transport and nucleations are implicitely accounted for, yet their spatial variations are found to negligibly affect the conditions inside the porous transport layer.  Operando gas saturation measurements are locally matched within a 20% margin and are qualitatively matched across the entire porous transport layer.

The simulated bubble detachment in flow field channels occur at pore throats that agree with porosimetry and microfluidic experiments. The gaseous phase pressure fluctuates greatly according to the detachment throat size and the bubble diameter immediately before detachment. The model allows the prediction of nucleation and detachment sites and can be further utilized to optimize porous transport layers as well as to predict boundary conditions when modeling catalyst layers and flow fields.

How to cite: Schmidt, G. and Neuweiler, I.: Volume of Fluid Modeling of Capillary-Dominated Flow Patterns and Bubble Detachment in PEM Water Electrolyzers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21948, 2025.

The remediation of groundwater contaminants, such as chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons (CAHs) and nitrate, often requires the injection of electron donors. Vegetable oil, commonly used as a cost-effective electron donor, is typically emulsified with surfactants before injection. However, some surfactants pose ecological risks to aquatic ecosystems during prolonged exposure. To overcome this challenge, a humic acid-based emulsified oil was developed, leveraging humic acid's non-toxic, naturally occurring, and affordable properties. This study investigates the fermentation process of the emulsified oil by analyzing degradation byproducts and its long-term electron supply potential. It also evaluates its performance in degrading organic and inorganic contaminants through laboratory- and pilot-scale experiments.
Batch reactors were used to conduct lab-scale fermentation test (LFT) and lab-scale degradation test (LDT) for assessing fermentation and contaminant degradation characteristics. The emulsified oil was added to reactors filled with groundwater at concentrations between 0.1% and 1.0% (v/v) during the LFT, and the reactors were monitored for 200 days. Target contaminants—trichloroethylene (TCE) and nitrate—were tested in the LDT using 0.1% and 0.5% (v/v) emulsified oil concentrations, and results were compared with control reactors. In a pilot-scale degradation test (PDT) conducted in an aquifer contaminated with TCE and PCE in Iksan, South Korea, the effectiveness of emulsified oil was further assessed using push-pull and drift tests.
The LFT revealed sustained lipase activity and byproducts, including fatty acids (e.g., stearic acid), organic acids (e.g., propionic acid), carbon dioxide, and methane, indicating that a 0.1% (v/v) oil concentration supported optimal fermentation. For nitrate in the LDT, degradation rates of approximately –30 mg N/L/d were observed across both tested concentrations, whereas TCE exhibited higher degradation rates under 0.1% (v/v) conditions (–0.51 mg/L/d), about twice as effective as 0.5% (v/v). The PDT demonstrated significant CAH degradation, with TCE's first-order degradation rate constant increasing 17-fold and enhanced production of dechlorination byproducts, such as vinyl chloride (VC) and ethene (ETH). These findings highlight the humic acid-based emulsified oil as an effective electron donor for promoting the biological degradation of both organic and inorganic contaminants, offering a promising solution for groundwater remediation.

How to cite: Yeum, Y., Kim, Y., Kwon, S., and Han, K.: Fermentation and Degradation Characteristics of Humic Acid-Based Emulsified Oil for Organic and Inorganic Contaminants in Groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2875, 2025.

EGU25-2968 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

Applying the Chelex-100 to Measure Trace Metals in High Salinity Samples in Southern Jhuoshuei River Alluvial Fan in Central Taiwan 

Chih-Ching Kuo, Sofia Ya Hsuan Liou, Tung-Lin Tai, and Wen-Ta Yang

Due to the steep terrain and seasonal precipitation, retaining water on the surface in Taiwan is challenging. As a result, groundwater resources play a significant role in most types of water usage. However, historical data suggest that groundwater in the shallow layers near the coastal region of the South Jhuoshuei River Alluvial Fan has become widely salinized. This study collected multiple batches of water samples to analyze their characteristics and seasonal variations. The results indicate that the degree of salinization in the shallow layer is higher than in the deep layer. However, the data from the water samples only suggest that salinity is contributed to by saline water, without clarifying whether the source is lateral intrusion or surface contamination. To better understand salinity in this region, this study used Chelex-100 chromatography to reduce salinity and concentrate trace metals in the samples. The concentration of trace elements differs significantly between seawater, which has low levels, and fish farms, which exhibit higher levels. This distinction helps identify the source of the saline water. Initial tests showed that wells near Taixi had higher concentrations of trace elements, particularly Pb. In contrast, wells near Yiwu and Qiongpu displayed lower concentrations of trace elements. These findings suggest that salinization in the Taixi region is likely caused by anthropogenic sources, while salinization near Yiwu and Qiongpu results from lateral intrusion.

How to cite: Kuo, C.-C., Liou, S. Y. H., Tai, T.-L., and Yang, W.-T.: Applying the Chelex-100 to Measure Trace Metals in High Salinity Samples in Southern Jhuoshuei River Alluvial Fan in Central Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2968, 2025.

EGU25-4202 | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

Analysis of Groundwater Contamination by Terbuthylazine and Desethyl-terbuthylazine in the Plana Sur Aquifer of Valencia (Spain) 

Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri, María Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, and Eduardo Cassiraga

In this study, groundwater contamination in the Plana Sur Aquifer of Valencia was analyzed using the PRZM (Pesticide Root Zone Model). The analysis included modeling the concentrations of two pesticides, terbuthylazine and desethyl-terbuthylazine, based on observed concentrations in six monitoring wells belonging to the groundwater quality control network of the Júcar River Basin. These wells were specifically chosen as they contain data on the pesticides in question.

The modeling was based on data recorded from the quality network wells of the Júcar River Basin Authority. In the Plana Sur of Valencia, six wells were analyzed, with five of them showing desethyl-terbuthylazine concentrations exceeding permissible limits (with a maximum value of 0.3 µg/L recorded on April 14, 2015). In contrast, the detected concentrations of terbuthylazine were consistently below the legal threshold. For the region's piezometry, results from a previously developed flow model using MODFLOW were utilized. Climatic variables such as precipitation and evapotranspiration were derived from databases associated with the closest climatological monitoring stations to each well.

Crop typologies were determined based on land-use information from the SIOSE database. Application doses were inferred from interviews with farmers, supplemented by data from the Ministry of Agriculture’s "Annual Statistics on Pesticide Use" and "Five-Year Statistics on Pesticide Use in Agriculture." However, the information provided in these documents was insufficient to precisely determine the applied doses. Therefore, calibration was performed using proposed scenarios, with terbuthylazine application rates set at 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8 kg/ha.

A sensitivity analysis of parameters allowed for the formulation of 54 simulation scenarios for each of the six analyzed wells, varying the year pesticide application ceased, the applied dose, and the characteristics of the soil column. Results indicate that desethyl-terbuthylazine concentrations are typically higher than those of terbuthylazine, as it is a metabolite of the latter. In some simulated wells and specific scenarios, these concentrations exceeded the reference value of 0.1 µg/L established by current legislation.

This study underscores the need for detailed scenario-based analysis and calibration to accurately assess the contamination risks and inform effective water quality management.

How to cite: Rodrigo-Ilarri, J., Rodrigo-Clavero, M. E., and Cassiraga, E.: Analysis of Groundwater Contamination by Terbuthylazine and Desethyl-terbuthylazine in the Plana Sur Aquifer of Valencia (Spain), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4202, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4202, 2025.

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a key pathway for transporting terrestrially derived nutrients, including elevated nitrate levels, from coastal groundwater to coastal waters, thereby impacting coastal water quality and ecosystem health. Tidally driven saltwater-freshwater mixing zones in coastal aquifers can promote denitrification, which attenuates terrestrially derived nitrate in groundwater before its discharge into coastal waters. However, the effect of rainfall recharge, which can significantly alter flow and mixing regimes in intertidal zones, on this mixing-dependent denitrification remains poorly understood. In this study, we employ a numerical variable-density groundwater flow and reactive transport model to evaluate how rainfall recharge interacts with spring-neap tides to shape denitrification spatially and temporally. We conduct a sensitivity analysis across various rainfall recharge patterns (uniform, random, extreme, and seasonal), recharge intensities, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) reactivity, and recharge-derived solutes. Our results show that rainfall recharge and spring-neap tides jointly regulate denitrification patterns. However, as DOC reactivity increases, the dominant driver shifts from rainfall recharge to tidal forcing. While different rainfall recharge patterns result in similar annual nitrate removal, they lead to substantial variability in daily removal rates. Increasing recharge intensity generally reduces overall nitrate removal unless additional nitrate is introduced via recharge. Additionally, in all scenarios, the percentage of nitrate removed relative to terrestrial inputs declines with increasing recharge intensity. These results underscore the interconnected hydrological and biogeochemical controls on denitrification in intertidal zones, offering important implications for estimating coastal nutrient fluxes and managing coastal water quality.

How to cite: Wu, H., Yan, M., Lu, C., and Prommer, H.: Spatiotemporal Variability of Denitrification in Intertidal Mixing Zones: The Roles of Rainfall Recharge and Spring-Neap Tides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4947, 2025.

Previous studies on contaminant transport models have primarily focused on boundary sources, limiting their applicability to scenarios with multiple internal pollution sources. This study develops a semi-analytical model for multispecies contaminant transport that incorporates advection, dispersion, rate-limited sorption, and first-order degradation, accommodating arbitrary time-dependent pollutant sources. By addressing rate-limited sorption, the model avoids underestimating degradable pollutant concentrations in non-equilibrium scenarios. The model is derived using the Laplace transform, finite cosine Fourier transform, generalized integral transform, and inverse transformations. Results highlight the sensitivity of contaminant and degradation product concentrations to time-dependent source variations. The model's key contribution lies in its ability to simulate dispersion from multiple internal sources under rate-limited sorption conditions, providing more accurate predictions of pollution plume dynamics and offering a robust alternative to boundary-source models for preliminary pollution management.

How to cite: Nguyen, T.-U. and Chen, J.-S.: Semi-Analytical Modeling of Contaminant Migration and Degradation from Multiple Pollution Sources under Rate-Limited Sorption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5469, 2025.

Chlorinated solvents are common groundwater contaminants, their behavior as Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids (DNAPLs) complicates remediation efforts, and their carcinogenic properties pose significant risks to human health. These highlight the urgent need for advanced tools to support site management and health risk assessment. This study enhances existing software MUSt by integrating advanced functionalities for managing and geographically visualizing the site-specific data, including the range of the contaminated site, geological and hydrological conditions, and contaminant distribution. Additionally, the human health risk assessment module has been expanded to consider multiple exposure pathways, further strengthening the software's ability to provide a comprehensive framework for site evaluation and decision-making. These advancements improve the efficiency of site management while enhancing risk communication, enabling more informed decisions and fostering better stakeholder engagement.

How to cite: Liao, H.-Y., Chen, J.-S., and Liang, C.-P.: A software integrating sophisticated transport analytical model, GIS, and human health risk assessment for comprehensive site evaluation of groundwater contaminated with chlorinated solvents, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5589, 2025.

EGU25-5826 | ECS | Orals | HS8.1.7

Structural uncertainty and surface water–groundwater interactions in the probabilistic delineation of well capture zones 

Davide Furlanetto, Rodrigo Pérez-Illanes, Daniel Fernàndez-Garcia, and Matteo Camporese

In the central Venetian plain (Northeastern Italy), drinking water demand is mainly met by groundwater abstraction from the complex underlying aquifer system. From the foothills of the Prealps towards the coast, this system consists of a thick unconfined aquifer made up of coarse sediments – mainly of fluvial or fluvioglacial origin – transitioning into a multi-layered aquifer system with progressively thicker clay layers. The deep confined aquifers in the latter region are heavily exploited, as they represent a valuable source of high-quality drinking water. In this context, proper delineation of well capture zones and wellhead protection areas (WHPAs) is critical to ensure drinking water quality. However, for wells exploiting the deep confined aquifers, especially in such a complex geological context, relying on the simple geometric or analytical criteria seems inadequate. Moreover, due to the high level of uncertainty involved, a deterministic definition of the spatial continuity, extent, and connectivity of structures with different permeabilities could lead to misleading results. In this work, we adopted a stochastic approach that allows for geological realism and for uncertainty quantification. Using an extensive dataset of borehole stratigraphic information, we set up a geostatistical model for the hierarchical simulation of lithofacies and validated it by means of K-fold cross-validation. Through subsequent groundwater flow modeling of multiple equiprobable realizations, we assessed the impact of structural uncertainty on the groundwater dynamics. Then, through the application of backward particle tracking techniques we analyzed the uncertainty in the preliminary delineation of WHPAs for deep wells. Furthermore, this study presents one of the first real-world applications of particle tracking that integrates the displacement of particles along surface watercourses. This latter method allows us to account for the high dependence of the groundwater system under investigation on the dynamics of the Piave River, and sheds light on the relevance of surface water–groundwater interactions in the problem of capture zones identification.

How to cite: Furlanetto, D., Pérez-Illanes, R., Fernàndez-Garcia, D., and Camporese, M.: Structural uncertainty and surface water–groundwater interactions in the probabilistic delineation of well capture zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5826, 2025.

Pharmaceuticals and anthropogenic organic compounds are crucial to healthcare and agriculture but are also increasingly recognized as environmental contaminants with significant environmental and public health impacts. These substances enter groundwater through different pathways such as wastewater discharge, agricultural runoff and landfill leachate, posing challenges for groundwater quality and ecosystem integrity. This study investigates the presence, distribution and temporal trends of pharmaceutical contaminants in groundwater resources, using Slovenia as an example?. Between 2014 and 2024, groundwater samples were collected at over 100 sites across urban, industrial and agricultural regions, in karst and intergranular aquifers in the scope of state monitoring programs, following strict protocols to ensure reliability. Compounds such as caffeine, carbamazepine and sulfamethoxazole exhibited consistently high detection frequencies, highlighting their persistence and environmental significance. Conversely, other compounds were often present at concentrations below the limit of detection (LOD). The findings underscore the influence of aquifer type and land use on contamination pathways and emphasize the need for comprehensive monitoring frameworks and targeted mitigation strategies to safeguard groundwater resources and public health.

How to cite: Perović, I. and Koroša, A.: A national-scale assessment of pharmaceutical and other organic compounds (CECs) in groundwater (Slovenia), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6119, 2025.

EGU25-8088 | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

Integrating hydrological data and hydrochemical data to reduce uncertainty in mountain aquifer modeling 

Mariaines Di Dato, Andrea Betterle, and Alberto Bellin

Mountain systems are an important source of high-quality freshwater. Mountain aquifers, found at higher altitudes, are typically composed of fractured rocks and karst systems, while alluvial aquifers, located in valleys, are more permeable and often connected to mountain aquifers. This connection transfers large water volumes downstream, supporting urban water needs. Additionally, groundwater serves as a natural water storage, sustaining river flows during dry periods and helping mitigate extreme droughts.

Despite the pivotal importance of groundwater in mountain systems, monitoring efforts in such environments remain limited, which hinders the efficiency of groundwater models. Data on hydraulic properties and piezometric heads are typically scarce. As a consequence, groundwater modeling suffers intrinsically from equifinality and high parameter uncertainty. 

We analyzed the uncertainty associated with the flow and transport model of the lower Chiese valley in the Italian Alps. The valley hosts an aquifer exploited to provide the water needed for the local fishery industry. The fisheries are exposed to the risk of contamination from the upstream industrial activities.  We developed the flow and transport model of the aquifer, depending on the following parameters: the homogeneous hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, the Chiese riverbed conductivity, and the mountain block recharge from the east and the west hillslopes. Datasets available include groundwater level measurements in 41 wells and piezometers, the chemical signature in 3 piezometers, and PFOS  concentration in 7 wells, representing sensitive points.  We computed the posterior parameters pdfs by means of  Markov Chain Monte Carlo with three levels of information.  At the first level, we used only piezometric data, then at the second level, we added chemical signatures at the observation wells and springs, and finally, at the third level, we added  PFOS  concentrations at 7 observation wells. 

Simulations showed that groundwater levels alone allow a small reduction of uncertainty, i.e., the posterior pdfs of the parameters differ slightly from the prior ones.  By incorporating chemical and contaminant concentrations into the model calibration, we observe a considerable reduction of model uncertainty, with posterior pdfs significantly different from the prior ones. In particular, the posterior pdf of the hydraulic conductivity is very narrow, with the most probable value of  10-1 m/s, which is compatible with the prevalence of sandy/gravel material through the entire formation, as shown by the available well logs. On the other hand, the posterior pdfs of the mountain block recharge and riverbed conductivity are narrower than the a priori ones, but the reduction in the amplitude is smaller for that of the hydraulic conductivity. This indicates that the primary source of model uncertainty lies in the exchange fluxes among the aquifer, the mountain block, and the river, with the chemical composition of the water and pollutant concentrations being the most effective data for reducing this uncertainty. Piezometric heads alone introduce little constraints to these fluxes. The proposed procedure can be applied to other Alpine valleys of mountain regions, where important water resources are threatened by overexploitation and contamination due to anthropic activities.

How to cite: Di Dato, M., Betterle, A., and Bellin, A.: Integrating hydrological data and hydrochemical data to reduce uncertainty in mountain aquifer modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8088, 2025.

This study examined the ability of subsurface dams to protect freshwater abstraction against seawater intrusion in both homogeneous and layered heterogeneous aquifers. Laboratory experiments were conducted in a synthetic aquifer where a subsurface dam was simulated in a homogeneous scenario (case H), and in another scenario where a top low permeability layer was placed in the upper part of the aquifer (case LH). We then conducted numerical simulations using the SEAWAT model to validate the experimental results and examine other numerical cases where a low K layer existed at the middle (case HLH) and the bottom of the aquifer (case HL). Case LH needed 52% more pumping than case H for the wedge to spill over the dam into the landside. The existence of a low permeability layer has generally delayed the upconing, and it took longer for the SWI to contaminate the abstraction well. The clean-up time varied substantially from one case to another, with the case HL taking longer than the other cases for SWI removal.  The cleanup time was reduced by 23% in the presence of a top low-K layer compared to the homogeneous aquifer. The study demonstrates that the presence of the low-K layer on the top of the aquifer contributed positively to improving the ability of the subsurface dams to obstruct SWI, limit saltwater upconing and, therefore, allow more optimal freshwater abstraction.  A feature of this study was it examined the ability of dams to prevent seawater intrusion in the existence of freshwater pumping, which has not been discussed in previous studies, at least in laboratory experiments.

How to cite: Abdoulhalik, A., Ahmed, A., and Abd-Elaty, I.: The Impact of Layered Heterogeneity on the Ability of Subsurface Dams to Protect Groundwater Pumping in Coastal Aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9593, 2025.

EGU25-9942 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

Arsenic removal from drinking water with magnetite (Fe3O4) reduced graphene oxide (MRGO) nanocomposite material: Evaluations on process chemistry, system design and engineering applications  

Sarp Çelebi, Omar A. I. M. Elkawefi, Acar Şenol, S. Sevinç Şengör, Gülay Ertaş, and Kahraman Ünlü

As surface waters become more polluted, many communities around the world need to turn to groundwater resources for their drinking water needs. Groundwaters on the other hand, carry the risk of having geogenic arsenic (As) that is at hazardous levels for human health. As is legislated by many governments in more recent years to a maximum concentration of 10 ppb in drinking waters as recommended by the World Health Organization since 1991. This has caused a surge in research related to removal of arsenic from drinking waters.

Using adsorptive materials, among other alternatives stand out, for adsorption itself being the major mechanism that determines the fate of dissolved arsenic; and relevant methods being generally easy to operate, cost effective, and having the potential of regeneration. Interest has grown in the 2010’s for graphene-based nanocomposites due to their 2-D single layer structure, large surface area and pore volumes, high mechanical stability, flexibility of surface chemistry and abundant production from natural sources. Magnetite reduced graphene oxide (MRGO) among others have an additional benefit of implementing the adsorptive capacities of iron oxides towards arsenic, and is also studied in batch for its adsorption capacity, kinetic and isotherm models under extremely high initial arsenic concentrations to demonstrate its capabilities at laboratory scale.

This study aims to build on the available literature and contribute further by assessing optimal reactor design and operational conditions for arsenic removal from water by column experiments. A custom-designed adsorption column with three sampling ports is implemented to collect data including pH, dissolved oxygen, iron concentration, and As+3 and As+5 concentrations with time, to evaluate the impact of different conditions such as initial arsenic species (As+3 or As+5), flowrate, and ionic composition on arsenic removal efficiency. Speciation analysis data is expected to yield novel insights about adsorption mechanisms as well. The collected data will be later used to model the column with hydrogeochemical and reactive transport models to make assessments about larger-scaled systems.

How to cite: Çelebi, S., Elkawefi, O. A. I. M., Şenol, A., Şengör, S. S., Ertaş, G., and Ünlü, K.: Arsenic removal from drinking water with magnetite (Fe3O4) reduced graphene oxide (MRGO) nanocomposite material: Evaluations on process chemistry, system design and engineering applications , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9942, 2025.

This study delves into resolving the knowledge gaps concerning the dynamic correlation between the bulk partition of nonionic surfactants and the solubilization of residual non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) for the technology of surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) through a delicate investigation on the elution of dodecane by low-concentration Triton X-100 (TX-100) in saturated porous media. First an interesting phenomenon, the presence of local concentration of TX-100 higher than injected (i.e., C/C0>1), was observed and then the mechanism was disclosed through a series of demonstration experiments to be the interplay between the kinetics of bulk partition of the surfactant and solubilization of residual dodecane. The rate-limited micelle-based solubilization of residual dodecane by TX-100, which induced the release of TX-100 from the residual dodecane phase as the source established by quick bulk partition of TX-100, resulted in the emergence of C/C0>1 under flow-interruption condition. Interface partition of the ionic surfactant of SDBS and bulk partition of the miscible solvent of n-propanol could not cause such a phenomenon, demonstrating the importance of the occurrence of both bulk partition and micelle-based solubilization processes. The knowledge obtained in this study supplement to the current cognition of the dynamics of surfactant partition and NAPL solubilization, which can be helpful to optimize the application of surfactants in in-situ groundwater remediation techniques.

How to cite: Huo, L., Liu, G., and Zhong, H.: Presence of local concentration higher than injected for non-ionic surfactant to solubilize NAPL in porous media: a result of interplay between partition and solubilization kinetics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10117, 2025.

EGU25-10360 | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

An Analytic Element Method solution for multispecies reactive contaminant transport 

Anton Köhler, James Craig, Prabhas K. Yadav, and Rudolf Liedl

A new analytic element approach is presented for steady-state reactive contaminant transport modelling with circular boundaries. Two solute compounds (electron donor and electron acceptor) are assumed to undergo an instantaneous and binary reaction [1] in a uniform flow field, forming a steady plume [2]. Transformations of the advection-dispersion-reaction equation are applied resulting in a reactive contaminant transport system governed by the modified Helmholtz equation. Comprehensive solutions to a single as well as multiple superimposed, interacting circular contaminant (electron donor) source elements are expressed by infinite series expansions of Mathieu functions [3]. The concentration of the electron donor and electron acceptor can be calculated at any point in the domain, while boundary conditions are met approximately, by adjusting the unknown coefficients of the truncated series of Mathieu functions.  Accuracy at the boundary interfaces is increased with an increase of number of terms used in the Mathieu functions series expansion. The potential of this novel approach lies in the flexibility of boundary conditions, while maintaining computational efficiency.

The model is implemented using the Python programming language. Model verification was achieved by evaluating the residual of a central difference scheme, evaluation of the error along the boundary interfaces and a comparison with a simple MODFLOW / MT3DMS model setup. Current development includes expansion of the model to line source elements and discontinuous contaminant sources. Further advancements may be achieved by increasing source shape complexity of contaminant sources by superimposing a large number of elements and introducing remediation actions in the form of interacting electron acceptor elements.

[1]           O. A. Cirpka, Å. Olsson, Q. Ju, Md. A. Rahman, and P. Grathwohl, ‘Determination of Transverse Dispersion Coefficients from Reactive Plume Lengths’, Groundwater, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 212–221, 2006, doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2005.00124.x.

[2]           R. Liedl, A. J. Valocchi, P. Dietrich, and P. Grathwohl, ‘Finiteness of steady state plumes’, Water Resources Research, vol. 41, Dec. 2005, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004000.

[3]           M. Bakker, ‘Modeling groundwater flow to elliptical lakes and through multi-aquifer elliptical inhomogeneities’, Advances in Water Resources, vol. 27, no. 5, pp. 497–506, May 2004, doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02.015.

How to cite: Köhler, A., Craig, J., Yadav, P. K., and Liedl, R.: An Analytic Element Method solution for multispecies reactive contaminant transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10360, 2025.

EGU25-11475 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Effect of heterogeneity on reactive convective dissolution 

Juan J. Hidalgo, Rima Benhammadi, and Anne De Wit

We investigate the impact of porous media heterogeneity on the dynamics of reactive convective density-driven dissolution. We study the convective dissolution of species A in a fluid containing a species B in presence of a binary reaction A + B → C. Fluid density is a function of the Rayleigh number of the species so that, depending on the nature of the species, convection can be enhanced or decreased (Loodts et al., 2014). It has been shown that in homogeneous systems chemical reaction can increase the dissolution fluxes. The impact of the porous media heterogeneity is, however, largely unknown.

To address the effect of heterogeneity on reactive convective dissolution we consider heterogeneous scenarios with horizontally stratified, vertically stratified, and log-normally distributed permeability fields. We analyze the resulting fingering pattern, mass of the reaction product, mixing length and reaction front topology. Results show that the reaction front progresses more rapidly in vertically stratified permeability fields than in horizontally stratified ones, where convective fingers spread laterally and struggle to move vertically. In horizontally stratified fields, the fingers appear thicker compared to those in vertically stratified fields. This observation is corroborated by the higher mixing lengths in the vertically stratified scenarios. The mass of the reaction product is also affected by the heterogeneity. Vertically stratified scenarios display the fastest growth of the reaction product while the horizontally stratified have the lowest reaction product. Homogeneous and log-normally distributed cases lay in between the two other scenarios. In log-normally distributed cases the reaction product, as well as the mixing length, are proportional to the anisotropy ratio between the correlation length in the vertical and horizontal directions.

References.

 V. Loodts, C. Thomas, L. Rongy, and A. De Wit. Control of convective dissolution by chemical reactions: General classification and application to CO2 dissolution in reactive aqueous solutions. Physical Review Letters, 113:114501, 2014

How to cite: Hidalgo, J. J., Benhammadi, R., and De Wit, A.: Effect of heterogeneity on reactive convective dissolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11475, 2025.

EGU25-12078 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Should and can hybrid models for contaminant transport be developed? 

Prabhas Kumar Yadav, Anton Köhler, Moulshree Tripathi, Peter Grathwohl, Peter Dietrich, and Rudolf Liedl

Globally rising numbers of contaminated sites, in millions that are yet to undergo an initial assessment, highlight the limitations of currently available models, as well as signify the need for the development of more practical application models, such as Hybrid models. These hybrid models can be a combination of available models, e.g., combining solutions provided by currently available numerical and analytical models. Effectively this can use the complexity of numerical models and the simplicity of analytical models and yet efficiently provide the required practical solution. However, the hybrid combination may not be limited to available numerical and analytical models, but they could also include Machine Learning (ML)-based surrogate models or much simpler ones based on the Analytic Element Method, which can provide more flexibility with respect to, for example, source and domain complexities. The literature already provides several attempts showcasing the importance of combining different (numerical and analytical) modelling methods, but these efforts have been rather limited and not appropriately defined for example as Hybrid Models. This work attempts to more appropriately define hybrid models and the associated terminologies, and demonstrate with examples that such (hybrid) models can and should be developed.

How to cite: Yadav, P. K., Köhler, A., Tripathi, M., Grathwohl, P., Dietrich, P., and Liedl, R.: Should and can hybrid models for contaminant transport be developed?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12078, 2025.

EGU25-12273 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Does Enhanced Mixing Improve Groundwater Quality? Evaluating the Impact of Injection-Extraction Engineering on Redox Conditions, Contaminants of Emerging Concern, and Antibiotic Resistance Genes  

Paula Rodríguez-Escales, Sonia Jou-Claus, Lurdes Martínez-Landa, Daniel Fernàndez-Garcia, Michela Trabucchi, Gerard Quintana, M. Silvia Diaz-Cruz, Laia Navarro-Martin, Claudia Sanz, Benjamí Piña, and Jesús Carrera

Redox (reduction-oxidation) reactions play a crucial role in determining groundwater quality, as they strongly influence the behavior of Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CECs). The extent of mixing between electron donors and acceptors largely governs the occurrence of these reactions. Additionally, increased spatial and temporal variability in redox potential (Eh) has been shown to enhance the likelihood of CEC removal. Numerical modeling studies suggest that injection and extraction engineering can improve mixing, leading to greater Eh variability and, in turn, a higher potential for CEC removal. However, these studies often neglect the critical role of biofilm, as most subsurface redox reactions occur primarily within the relatively immobile biofilm where microbial activity dominates.

In this study, we explored the effects of enhanced mixing in the subsurface, achieved through the use of extraction and injection dipoles in a pilot-scale Managed Aquifer Recharge system, on redox potential distribution and the behavior of CECs and ARGs. Redox potential was continuously monitored using a network of over 30 probes, while CECs and ARGs removal and their associated toxicity (evaluated with zebrafish embryos) were assessed before and after the implementation of EIE. The application of three dipoles in a system with stratified geochemistry caused significant alterations in Eh, initiating new geochemical processes such as iron precipitation. Surprisingly, concentrations of both CECs and ARGs, along with associated toxicity, increased following EIE. This rise was attributed to biofilm detachment, which likely released sorbed CECs and ARGs into the aqueous phase, thereby amplifying their ecotoxicological effects.

 

How to cite: Rodríguez-Escales, P., Jou-Claus, S., Martínez-Landa, L., Fernàndez-Garcia, D., Trabucchi, M., Quintana, G., Diaz-Cruz, M. S., Navarro-Martin, L., Sanz, C., Piña, B., and Carrera, J.: Does Enhanced Mixing Improve Groundwater Quality? Evaluating the Impact of Injection-Extraction Engineering on Redox Conditions, Contaminants of Emerging Concern, and Antibiotic Resistance Genes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12273, 2025.

EGU25-15671 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

Stretching, Dispersion and Mixing in 2D Darcy scale heterogeneous porous media 

Konstantinos Feroukas, Juan J. Hidalgo, Daniel Lester, and Marco Dentz

Mixing in porous media is the process from which the homogenization of an initially segregated system is done. It is a key process for a vast type of applications, from ground remediation methods to numerous engineering applications where the facilitation of chemical reactions is needed. This process is the result of the interaction of spatial velocity fluctuations and diffusion or local-scale dispersion. The velocity fluctuations are induced by spatial medium heterogeneities at the pore, Darcy or regional scales which will enhance mixing by stretching the fluid elements of the groundwater. Stretching of fluid elements augments the ratio of surface to volume of the solute, making thus place for diffusion to destroy the concentration gradients on pore-scale. The main objective of this work is to unravel and quantify the mechanisms and laws that explain the impact of structure on stretching and dispersion dynamics in heterogeneous porous media, constituting two fundamental mechanisms for the understanding of mixing. The objectives are thus to quantify and understand the impact structure and media on stretching and dispersion on 2D Darcy scale heterogeneous porous media. Upscaling models for the previous mechanisms are also derived to predict large scale transport behaviors and understand the key parameters governing these mechanisms.
The methodology consists of numerical and theoretical derivations. The heterogeneity of the media is modeled by a stochastic model to systematically study the impact of spatial variability. Transport is analyzed through a Lagrangian framework by particle tracking. Deterministic and stochastic models for breakthrough curves, dispersion coefficients and stretching rates are proposed, demonstrating strong agreement.

How to cite: Feroukas, K., J. Hidalgo, J., Lester, D., and Dentz, M.: Stretching, Dispersion and Mixing in 2D Darcy scale heterogeneous porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15671, 2025.

EGU25-17808 | Posters on site | HS8.1.7

RW3D: An Open-Source Random-Walk Particle-Tracking Code for Reactive Transport under Complex 3D Conditions 

Christopher Vincent Henri and Daniel Fernandez-Garcia

We introduce RW3D, a random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method designed to simulate conservative and (some) reactive transport in saturated and unsaturated porous media within complex three-dimensional (3D) environments. Traditional methods such as Eulerian approaches often struggle to simulate efficiently and accurately transport and reactions under heterogeneous conditions. This often leads to a misrepresentation of macrodispersion and mixing, which can significantly deteriorate the performance of predictive models.

Our approach leverages a range of advanced modeling techniques to solve the advection-dispersion-reaction equation, which allow us to accurately capture the spatial and temporal variability of reactive solute transport under a large array of conditions.

Key features of RW3D include:

  • 3D rectilinear grid: By allowing spatial variability in the horizontal and vertical discretization, our RWPT method can represent complex domain.
  • Transient parameters: The code can read text or netCDF files to represent transient conditions in any transport and/or reaction parameter.
  • Array of reactions: The code has been developed to accurately solve first-order decay networks, bimolecular kinetic reaction network, and retardation.
  • Upscaling technique: Multirate-Mass Transfer, potentially coupled with reaction network, can be used to upscale transport parameters.
  • Sinks: The code can handle mass removal by strong or weak sinks such as rivers and extraction wells.
  • Multiple outputs: RW3D can computes (cumulative) breakthrough curves, snapshots of the plume of particle, spatial/temporal moments, particle paths. Kernel smoothing techniques can be used to mitigate subsampling effects due to a limited number of particles, enhancing the code’s efficiency.

Over the years, we have demonstrated the applicability of RW3D through a series of case studies, highlighting its robustness and versatility in addressing groundwater contamination scenarios. The code can handle any continuum spatial scale, from regional studies to site or lab specific assessments.

RW3D is now released under an open-source license, and contributions to its development and assessment are welcome.

How to cite: Vincent Henri, C. and Fernandez-Garcia, D.: RW3D: An Open-Source Random-Walk Particle-Tracking Code for Reactive Transport under Complex 3D Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17808, 2025.

EGU25-18211 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Exploring Positive Feedback Between Biofilm Growth and Mixing in porous media: Insights from Darcy-Scale Flow-Through Column Experiment  

Michela Trabucchi, Paula Rodriguez-Escales, Mar Guardia, Malik Dawi, Daniel Fernàndez Garcia, Jesús Carrera, and Xavier Sanchez Vila

Biofilms in porous media host microbial communities that play a central role in the degradation of nutrients and Contaminants of Emerging Concern, significantly enhancing water quality through contaminant removal. Current research focuses on strategies to prevent bio-clogging in natural and engineered systems while promoting controlled and widespread biofilm growth. This dual approach aims to maintain permeability while leveraging biofilm activity for bioremediation purposes. Biofilm growth dynamics and spatial distribution are shaped by factors such as the mixing of nutrients (electron donors and acceptors), flow and transport processes, and the inherent heterogeneity of the porous medium, although these processes are not yet fully understood. In this context, we seek to understand how mixing affects biofilm growth and vice versa, as well as whether it is possible to maximize the bio-reactive zone while minimizing clogging.

To achieve this, we conducted a flow-through experiment in a 60 cm homogeneous sand-packed column. By injecting multiple sequences of electron donor and electron acceptor solutions, we created periodic reactive mixing zones with complementary reactants to stimulate microbial activity. This setup mimics a fluctuating geochemical environment, resulting in multiple mixing areas that evolve in both space and time. The interplay between limited nutrient supply and biofilm development turned biofilm growth into a process driven by mixing and transport dynamics. The monitoring system enabled us to indirectly assess integrated microbial activity alongside overall flow and transport behavior. We recorded the temporal evolution of (i) downstream redox potential, (ii) differential pressure, and (iii) tracer breakthrough curves. Data suggest an early onset of microbial activity, inferred from a rapid decrease in redox potential, as well as a gradual decline in hydraulic conductivity and an increase in BTC tailing, indicating enhanced immobile porosity due to biofilm growth. Moreover, the spatial and temporal evolution of microbial activity inside the column—directly linked to the evolution of mixing dynamics—was characterized through semi-continuous measurements of pH and CO2 at ten non-invasive sensor spots. Results indicate an expansion of the bio-reactive zone (i.e., the mixing zone) over time, likely driven by increased dispersion, and a spatial shift of the area with the highest activity over time.

How to cite: Trabucchi, M., Rodriguez-Escales, P., Guardia, M., Dawi, M., Fernàndez Garcia, D., Carrera, J., and Sanchez Vila, X.: Exploring Positive Feedback Between Biofilm Growth and Mixing in porous media: Insights from Darcy-Scale Flow-Through Column Experiment , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18211, 2025.

EGU25-19427 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Mathematical Modeling of Laboratory-Scale Solute Transport in Porous Media 

Prasanjaya Ekanayake, Mariaines Di Dato, Daniele Tonina, and Alberto Bellin

Transport processes in porous media are ubiquitous, and their manifestation depends on the scale of observation. The effect of pore scale processes is typically upscaled by considering full mixing and assuming full mixing within pores and Fickian transport fully defined by a mean pore velocity and a constant Darcy’s scale dispersivity. Theoretical development, supported by experimental results, evidenced the emergence of incomplete mixing accompanied by non-Fickian transport, which impacts the reactions upon mixing. We performed laboratory scale experiments in a porous media created by hydrogel spheres with a refraction index matching that of the water. Rhodamine B was injected at the inlet of a 9 cm x 9 cm x 17 cm sample, and its spreading was monitored by using Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF),  which provided the distribution of the concentration within a control plane normal to the mean flow direction at a high resolution. The images were obtained at constant time intervals of two seconds.

The PLIF images were processed by calibrating pixel intensity values against Rhodamine B concentrations using standard PLIF calibration procedure. This calibration enabled the determination of spatial concentration distributions within the imaging plane.  Breakthrough curves (BTCs) were obtained from these image data, and variance was computed at each time step. The breakthrough curve (BTC) provides a macroscopic representation of solute transport, capturing the temporal evolution of solute concentrations at a downstream control plane. In a Lagrangian framework, the BTC is determined by displacement moments, which describe the key characteristics of the transport process.

Three models for displacement moments were analyzed. The classical Fickian model considers dispersivity values in the longitudinal and transverse directions. The stochastic macrodispersion model (Dagan, 1989) uses medium variance and its integral scale. The extended Saffman model incorporates sphere diameters and interstitial flow speed as its parameters.The Fickian model provided dispersivity values consistent with those reported by Eames and Bush (1999) for a medium composed of impermeable spheres. However, it struggled to capture the early and late parts of the BTC, indicating that incomplete mixing and pre-Fickian transport behavior can occur even at the laboratory scale.In contrast, the stochastic macrodispersion model and the extended Saffman model yielded more accurate results. Both models successfully reproduced BTCs across the entire observation period, including early arrivals and tails. Additionally, the Saffman model effectively represented physical properties of the medium, such as interstitial velocity and pore size, which aligned with the measured values.

 

References 

1. G. Dagan. Flow and transport in porous formations. Springer-Verlag, New York, 1989

2. Eames, I. and Bush, J.W.M., 1999. Longitudinal dispersion by bodies fixed in a potential flow. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences455(1990), pp.3665-3686.

3. P. G. Saffman. A theory of dispersion in a porous medium. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 251(1264):313–328, 1959.

How to cite: Ekanayake, P., Di Dato, M., Tonina, D., and Bellin, A.: Mathematical Modeling of Laboratory-Scale Solute Transport in Porous Media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19427, 2025.

EGU25-21922 | Orals | HS8.1.7

Modeling Water, Heat, and Nitrate Dynamics in the VadoseZone: A Case Study of the Beauce Aquifer (Orleans, France) 

Mohamed Boujoudar, Bouamama Abbar, Mohamed Azaroual, Marwan Fahs, and Ghina Abbani

The Unsaturated Zone (UZ), the portion between the soil surface and the groundwater table, has a significant impact on subsurface water resources. This zone controls water movement from the soil surface to the aquifer and acts as a natural filter, purifying groundwater by removing or transforming solutes as water moves from the surface towards the water table. A thorough understanding of the processes occurring within the UZ is essential for sustainable land and water resource management, especially in the context of climate change and increasing agricultural demands. This study is conducted on a representative scale of the Beauce aquifer and is leverage extensive data from the Observatory of transfers in the Vadose Zone (O-ZNS) in Villamblain, France. The observatory’s unique setup, which includes a 20-meter deep well with a diameter of 4 meters, multiple boreholes, and innovative environmental sensors, provides high-resolution 3D measurements of fluid flow and heat/mass transfer processes.
The complex and coupled processes governing mass and heat transfer in the UZ determine the fate of pollutants and impact groundwater quality. In this study, a coupled model of water, heat, and nitrate transfer in the UZ of the Beauce aquifer is developed to assess the impact of climatic variations and agricultural practices on groundwater responses. Hydraulic properties, meteorological data, water table levels, and agricultural data—including crop types, fertilizer application rates, and pesticide usage reported by local farmers—are used as model inputs for the period from 2021 to 2025.

Numerical simulations are validated against volumetric water content measurements at the well level and against observed water content and temperature profiles in a 2-meterdeep soil pit. The model predictions showed in general good agreement with experimental observations, confirming its reliability. Various scenarios are explored by altering meteorological inputs and nitrogen fertilization rates to evaluate their impacts on groundwater responses. The results demonstrated diverse behaviors of the UZ, highlighting the sensitivity of groundwater quality to agricultural practices and climatic conditions.

The outcomes of this research provide valuable insights into the mechanisms governing the heat and mass transfer through the UZ of carbonate aquifers, contributing to more accurate predictions of groundwater responses to intensive agriculture, ecological and climatic changes.

How to cite: Boujoudar, M., Abbar, B., Azaroual, M., Fahs, M., and Abbani, G.: Modeling Water, Heat, and Nitrate Dynamics in the VadoseZone: A Case Study of the Beauce Aquifer (Orleans, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21922, 2025.

HS8.2 – Subsurface hydrology – Groundwater

Sustainable water extraction and the vulnerability of aquifers require the accurate definition of wellhead protection area (WHPA) around both production and injection wells. Although the WHPA definition is different in every country, they have a common feature that the protected area is defined by groundwater travel time. The assumption of a homogeneous medium is the general simplification in modelling of WHPA, although, heterogeneity can have a significant effect on its size in the hydrogeological environment.

In this study, we investigated the effect of permeability heterogeneity on the size of the WHPA in synthetic two- and three-dimensional finite element models with COMSOL Multiphysics software at the time points used in the Hungarian legislation (t=20 d, 180 d, 5 yr, 50 yr). Heterogeneous permeability distributions with different heterogeneity scales (i.e. correlation length R=5 m, 10 m, 20 m) were created in SGeMS geostatistics software using unconditional Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS). 20–20 realizations were generated for each value of R in order to get statistically stable solutions for the simulations. The temporal evolution of the concentration front (minimum - rmin, average - rav and maximum - rmax distances from well) was used to monitor the size of the WHPA at the respective time points.

Among the results, the following main conclusions can be drawn based on 2D simulations. Although the average distance (rav) in heterogeneous media is approximately equal to the homogeneous solution, the maximum distance (rmax) is significantly greater in heterogeneous media, because the water travels larger distances in a heterogeneous medium through the channels of zones with good permeability. Therefore, a larger protection area should be expected compared to the homogeneous approach. Water travels up to 25–75% farther depending on the scale of heterogeneity, where the increment rate decreases over time. Based on the 3D simulations, only small differences are detected between the 2D and 3D results. The maximum distances (rmax) in 3D models are 1.05–1.47 times greater than those in 2D models. Besides, the ratio decreases with time, which indicates that the differences are relevant especially on short time scales, and there is no significant difference after 50 years.

The research provides useful results in terms of the size of the WHPA, which is important for geothermal applications and sustainable water management. In this light, the findings from synthetic model calculations are used in a geothermal project area in Hungary where the heterogeneity scale is estimated from seismic attributes (sweetness, amplitude anomaly) and a 3D hydrodynamic model of the heterogeneous hydrogeological environment is evaluated in FEFLOW software.

Project no. KT-2023-900-I1-00000975/0000003 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the KDP-2023 funding scheme.

How to cite: Molnár, B., Galsa, A., and Garaguly, I.: The effect of the permeability heterogeneity on the extension of wellhead protection area based on synthetic simulation and a case study in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-932, 2025.

EGU25-1016 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

A Simplified Approach to Modelling Groundwater Dynamics in Complex, Data-Scarce Semi-Arid Basins 

ankush kaundal and sekhar muddu

Groundwater is a vital component of the global hydrological cycle, supporting stream flows, vegetation, and serving as a critical water source during droughts. In semi-arid regions, where rainfall is erratic and surface water resources are limited, groundwater plays a key role in sustaining agriculture and economic activities. However, these regions face compounded challenges due to climatic variability and human activities, leading to significant groundwater stress. Large-scale hydrological models offer insights into broad-scale dynamics but often lack the resolution needed to address region-specific issues, particularly in data-scarce areas where human influences like groundwater extraction significantly alter the hydrological cycle. These limitations underscore the need for localized models that integrate detailed information on human water use and extraction to enhance understanding of groundwater dynamics. The semi-arid Noyil River Basin, characterized by intense human activity and climatic stress, is used in this study to demonstrate the proposed modeling methods. Developing groundwater models in this data-scarce environment is particularly challenging due to insufficient data on recharge and extraction, as well as the complexity of accounting for diverse land-use types. To address these challenges, this study employs a water table fluctuation-based conceptual model (AMBHAS-1D) to estimate recharge and groundwater draft. The outputs from this model are then integrated into numerical transient groundwater model built using MODFLOW, enabling detailed simulations of aquifer responses to climatic and anthropogenic pressures. The study demonstrates how calibrated time series outputs from a simple 1-D model can serve as effective inputs for a more sophisticated transient numerical model. The transient model operates without additional calibration, relying solely on the 1-D model’s outputs, making it particularly suitable for data scarce basins with unpredictable rainfall and significant groundwater reliance. The approach allows for detailed analysis of groundwater dynamics, including flow behavior during dry periods and the impacts of human extraction and climatic variability. The study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale human water use, which is often overlooked in data-limited regions. By addressing the challenges of modeling in data-scarce, water-stressed basins, this study provides a framework for more effective groundwater management, particularly in regions where groundwater serves as the primary water source during drought periods.

How to cite: kaundal, A. and muddu, S.: A Simplified Approach to Modelling Groundwater Dynamics in Complex, Data-Scarce Semi-Arid Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1016, 2025.

EGU25-1973 | Orals | HS8.2.2

New heat tracer transport models to improve understanding of Groundwater-surface water interactions 

Quanrong Wang, Wenguang Shi, Tuanji Gao, Hongshan Yan, and Zhe Li

Local thermal nonequilibrium (LTNE) effects in heterogeneous media can affect subsurface temperature distributions, as well as the capacity of the heat transport model to solve the inverse problem of estimating groundwater fluxes. We present a synthetic coupled water and heat transport model to investigate how LTNE effects affect the estimation of heat tracer-based streambed fluxes in heterogeneous streambed sediments, characterized by variations in both hydraulic and thermal properties. Results show that, in a heterogeneous streambed containing both clay and sand, increasing LTNE effects in the sand portion can result in a substantially lower effective thermal diffusivity inside the clay region. The use of a local thermal equilibrium (LTE) model to interpret temperature measurements taken on sand portion can lead to an overestimation of Darcy fluxes and an underestimation of effective thermal diffusivity. Increasing particle size enhances LTNE effects and yields a greater effective thermal diffusivity inside the zone of high-flow preferential flows, and using an LTE model in the presence of heterogeneous streambed sediments could result in a 30-fold underestimate of Darcy fluxes in the saturated clay at Darcy fluxes ranging from 0.009 to 5.6 . In a homogeneous streambed, both the VFLUX 2 and LPMLEn can estimate streambed fluxes at low hydrodynamic flow conditions, even when LTNE effects are present. When there are considerable LTNE effects, however, both models can underestimate the effective thermal diffusivity.

How to cite: Wang, Q., Shi, W., Gao, T., Yan, H., and Li, Z.: New heat tracer transport models to improve understanding of Groundwater-surface water interactions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1973, 2025.

In Korea, groundwater is used as the main water resource, and there is a high possibility of groundwater pollution from saltwater intrusion caused by various groundwater developments and overexploitation. In this study, time series data such as daily average sea level, groundwater level, upper and lower electrical conductivity, rainfall, upper and lower water temperature, and LSTM algorithm was used to forecast the electrical conductivity, which is an indicator of seawater intrusion, for four stations in Kyungnam Haeun, Kyungnam Mokdo, Gangwon Joyang, and Incheon Sungyeo, which are severe level stations in the coastal areas of each area, in the rural groundwater management system. A time lag of 3 to 10 days was applied to each area, and out of a total of 3,438 univariate data, 2,406 days (70%) were trained, and 1,032 days (30%) were forecast and evaluated, with LSTM layers ranging from 8 to 256, batch size from 5 to 50 epochs, and parameters from 10 to 150. As one of the best forecasts, RMSE = 0.0066 and R2 = 0.9827 were performed in Gangwon Joyang. Afterward, RMSE = 0.0603 and R2 = 0.9856 were performed with the same parameters when predicting using the Shuffle technique.

How to cite: Jeong, W.: A Study on Prediction of Saltwater Instrusion in Costal Aquifer using LSTM Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2263, 2025.

EGU25-2309 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Application of THMC Model with User-Friendly Interface in Addressing Saltwater Intrusion 

Yu-Chieh Ho, Yung-Yu Tai, Yen-Pu Hsu, Jui-Sheng Chen, and Gour-Tsyh Yeh

THMC(Thermal-Hydrology-Geo-Mechanics-Chemical), developed by the internationally renowned hydrologist Prof. Gour-Tsyh Yeh, is an advanced physical-based FEM model for simulating fully coupled processes in saturated and unsaturated subsurface environment. Designed to address a broad spectrum of water-related issues, THMC offers unparalleled capabilities in carbon sequestration, geothermal energy, nuclear waste disposal, groundwater resource management and groundwater remediation.

Recent advancements in THMC model emphasize enhanced simulation accuracy and computational stability, consolidating its standing as a leading solution in international subsurface software market. Furthermore, CAMRDA from National Central University, Taiwan, has improved the model’s accessibility and usability by designing a Windows-based, user-friendly interface platform. The platform supports fully 3D operations, enabling seamless simulation workflows with interactive visualization tools and intuitive model-building features. Its self-developed 2D/3D mesh generation engine allows users to construct detailed conceptual models and simulation-ready meshes efficiently.

To overcome the domain knowledge barrier, the software integrates a comprehensive database of frequently used parameters, including material coefficients and chemical equations, simplifying setup processes and shortening the learning curve for new users. With these enhancements, THMC has become a competitive and versatile tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex environmental and engineering challenges.

In this study, we consider the Henry's saltwater intrusion problem as a case example to perform a simulation using THMC software. The simulation results closely align with those from the previous study (Cheng et al., 1998), serving as a reliable benchmark in the issue of saltwater intrusion. With the THMC platform, users can proficiently execute modelling and interpret the results of simulation, providing a scientific basis for decision-making analysis.

How to cite: Ho, Y.-C., Tai, Y.-Y., Hsu, Y.-P., Chen, J.-S., and Yeh, G.-T.: Application of THMC Model with User-Friendly Interface in Addressing Saltwater Intrusion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2309, 2025.

EGU25-2913 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.2

Flow and hydrogeochemical model of the Yucatán groundwater flow system 

Martha Edith Castro Zarate, Selene Olea Olea, Eric Morales Casique, Iris Neri Flores, Citlali Salas Barrena, and Ismael de Jesús Mariño Tapia

The study area is located within the Yucatán Flow System in the south of Mexico,  a coastal karstic system characterized by rapid infiltration of rainwater into the subsurface. Groundwater flow in this system can be considered laminar and/or turbulent, with limited contaminant retention in the soil.

In Yucatan, groundwater is the sole source of water supply for human use and ecosystems. It is essential to manage its use through studies that enhance our understanding dynamics of flow systems. This study aims to develop a coupled flow model with the hydrogeochemistry of the groundwater flow system to identify transport and hydrogeochemical processes.

For the hydrogeochemical analysis, physicochemical parameters were measured, and groundwater samples were collected in May 2023 for analysis of major ions and trace elements. A conceptual model was developed based on sample classification concerning chemical quality, hydrogeochemical diagrams, and a flow network created using field measurements of static water level depth and bibliographic information. The coupled flow and hydrogeochemistry model will be developed using PHAST software (PHREEQC and HST3D), which simulates groundwater flow, solute transport, and geochemical reactions.

Preliminary results identified three components of the flow system:

The local component is the shallowest and is influenced by the current climate.
The intermediate component is located along of a fault zone; its more evolved nature suggests that the fault acts as a preferential conduit for groundwater flow.
The regional component is primarily located along the coastline.
Groundwater flow generally moves from south to north, but two geomorphological features alter this flow direction: the Ticul Fault and the Cenote Ring, both of which serve as preferential conduits for groundwater.

The Yucatán Flow System is a complex system due to its karstic nature and its discharge into the sea. Therefore, addressing its geomorphological, hydrogeochemical, and flow complexities is crucial to achieving reliable results that can inform effective groundwater management in Yucatán.

How to cite: Castro Zarate, M. E., Olea Olea, S., Morales Casique, E., Neri Flores, I., Salas Barrena, C., and Mariño Tapia, I. D. J.: Flow and hydrogeochemical model of the Yucatán groundwater flow system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2913, 2025.

EGU25-3164 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.2

Experimental and modeling assessment of slug tests in the presence of coupled hydraulic, thermal, and solute transport effects 

Xiaosong Dong, Yanrong Zhao, Yong Huang, Monica Riva, and Alberto Guadagnini

Assessment of hydrogeological parameters such as aquifer permeability, thermal conductivity, and dispersion coefficients is critical for comprehensive groundwater resource assessment. In this context we provide experimental analyses of slug tests performed upon considering a confined groundwater system where hydraulic, thermal, and solute transport processes take place. Design and execution of experiments are supported by a detailed numerical modeling analysis taking into account the intimately coupled nature of these mechanisms.

The study investigates coupling mechanisms among (Darcy scale) flow, thermal, and chemical fields across the aquifer. In this sense, groundwater flow directly influences rates of heat and solute transport. Temperature impacts groundwater dynamics upon altering, e.g., water density and viscosity. Our numerical simulations are grounded on the well known and broadly tested COMSOL suite. We also explore the potential of a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) approach to provide characterize complex coupling conditions of the type we analyze, thereby complementing model evaluation and parameter estimation accuracy. Doing so enables us to estimate the set of model parameters through numerical simulations performed according to two diverse strategies and anchored on experimental data.

A dedicated indoor experimental platform is then developed. Slug tests associated with coupled flow and (chemical/thermal) transport conditions are designed on the basis of preliminary numerical simulations performed using both the COMSOL-based fully coupled model and the PINN approach. The platform is equipped with excitation devices and a high-frequency, high-precision automatic data collection system tailored to meet the requirements of hydraulic-thermal-chemical coupling associated with slug tests. In this context, NaCl is employed as a tracer, its concentration being monitored through electrical conductivity signals. A cylindrical container filled with homogeneous fine sand is designed to represent the porous domain. The top is sealed with an insulating film and cement, simulating ideal confined aquifer conditions. One-dimensional column tests are also performed to enable cross-validation of interpretive modeling and parameter estimation. By integrating data such as water level, temperature, and electrical conductivity under various experimental conditions, the study qualitatively examines the temporal and spatial variations in groundwater flow, heat transport, and solute transport. These experimental results are then quantitatively employed in the context of model-based parameter estimation. The latter is performed through the full system model (as implemented in the COMSOL suite) as well as through the PINN approach. 

How to cite: Dong, X., Zhao, Y., Huang, Y., Riva, M., and Guadagnini, A.: Experimental and modeling assessment of slug tests in the presence of coupled hydraulic, thermal, and solute transport effects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3164, 2025.

EGU25-3739 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.2

Testing of MODFLOW related packages to simulate flow patterns to horizontal wells in shallow porous aquifers for effective catchment-scale groundwater modelling 

Tania Stefania Agudelo Mendieta, Max Rudolph, Marcus Genzel, Paul Franke, Andreas Hartmann, and Zhao Chen

Horizontal wells are an interesting alternative to vertical wells for water supply in shallow aquifers and have been successfully implemented at many different water supply sites worldwide. However, the flow patterns to horizontal wells are much more complicated than those to vertical wells, making their mathematical treatment more demanding. In previous studies, some numerical approaches have been introduced and used to represent horizontal wells in numerical groundwater models, but there is no "one size fits all" solution that can be identified. In order to develop a practice-oriented guideline for the appropriate implementation of horizontal wells in MODFLOW based groundwater models, we designed a comprehensive numerical experiment with four different synthetic aquifer models of increasing complexity in terms of hydraulic properties and boundary conditions in the current work. Four different MODFLOW related packages, including WEL, Drain, MNW2, and CFPy, were tested and evaluated for their performance under steady and transient conditions at catchment scale. The advantages and limitations of these four tested MODLFLOW packages were systematically analyzed and compared in terms of performance metrics, computational efficiency, and numerical stability. The results indicate that while both CFPy and MNW2 deliver hydraulically representative simulations, CFPy demands 40–80% higher computational effort compared to MNW2. In contrast to the WEL package, which oversimplifies flow dynamics, and the Drain package, which struggles to represent lateral flow patterns effectively, MNW2 captures variable inflow rates along the well and incorporates essential factors such as skin effects and wellbore storage. Consequently, MNW2 emerges as the preferred choice for practical and more complex applications due to its ease of use, reliable simulation of well-aquifer interactions, and sufficient accuracy for flow modelling at the catchment scale. The outcomes of this study provide actionable guidelines for selecting appropriate modelling approaches for horizontal wells based on specific project requirements. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study and its combination with synthetic aquifer experiments, multiple complexity levels, and comparative package evaluations is transferable to other regions and applications. By offering insights into horizontal well representation, the findings support improved groundwater management and water supply planning in both research and operational contexts.

How to cite: Agudelo Mendieta, T. S., Rudolph, M., Genzel, M., Franke, P., Hartmann, A., and Chen, Z.: Testing of MODFLOW related packages to simulate flow patterns to horizontal wells in shallow porous aquifers for effective catchment-scale groundwater modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3739, 2025.

EGU25-5449 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Applications of Modeling Non-point Source Pollution in Groundwater  

Zhendan Cao, Giorgos Kourakos, and Thomas Harter

Modeling non-point source (NPS) pollution in groundwater is a critical yet challenging task, particularly at large regional scales, due to the high computational costs and the need for detailed loading data across the entire area. This work focuses on the development and application of the novel Non-Point Source Assessment Tool (NPSAT), a physically based and computationally efficient framework for simulating groundwater flow and diffuse pollution/tracer transport processes. By integrating regional-scale hydrologic models, high-resolution landscape recharge and pollution/tracer loading models and high-resolution well placement models with particle-tracking and reactive transport frameworks, the NPSAT addresses complexities such as spatial variability and anthropogenic influences on groundwater transport across local to large regional scales. Two key applications are highlighted: groundwater age modeling, which refines our understanding of aquifer porosities and flow velocities, and nitrate transport modeling, which evaluates contaminant movement and attenuation under varying agricultural practices. These advancements demonstrate the potential of cutting-edge groundwater modeling approaches to tackle emerging issues in water resource sustainability and pollution mitigation.

How to cite: Cao, Z., Kourakos, G., and Harter, T.: Applications of Modeling Non-point Source Pollution in Groundwater , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5449, 2025.

EGU25-7383 | Orals | HS8.2.2

Large scale flow and dispersion in heterogeneous karst aquifers under laminar and turbulent flow conditions     

Marco Dentz, Philippe Gouze, Juan Hidalgo, and Jannes Kordilla

Non-linear flow and dispersion in fractured and karstic media are key issues in different fields of science and engineering, ranging from the assessment of groundwater vulnerability and flood risks to geothermal energy and speleogenesis. Spatial variability in the physical medium properties lead to scale effects in the flow and dispersion processes that manifest in non-Fickian transport and non-Darcian flow behaviors. We study the mechanisms of flow and dispersion in two- and three-dimensional heterogeneous networks. Flow is modeled by the Darcy-Weisbach equation, which for low Reynolds numbers describes laminar and for high Reynolds numbers turbulent flow conditions. Due to spatial heterogeneity, the Reynolds number and thus the flow conditions may strongly vary in  space. That is, laminar flow regions alternate with regions of dominantly turbulent flow. The aim is to understand and predict large scale flow and dispersion in such media by understanding their relation to medium geometry and heterogeneity. To this end, the flow fields are characterized statistically in terms of the distribution of Eulerian and Lagrangian flow velocities and their correlation properties with emphasis on the relation between network heterogeneity and flow statistics. We find that large scale flow can be characterized by a Darcy-Weisbach law in terms of a  large scale friction factor that depends on the medium heterogeneity. Solute dispersion is measured in terms of particle breakthrough curves and displacement statistics. We observe broad distributions of particle arrival times and non-linear evolution of the displacement variance, which are manifestations of memory processes that occur due to broadly distributed flow velocities and mass transfer rates. These behaviors are linked to the medium structure and Eulerian flow statistics. Based on this analysis, we propose a stochastic time domain random walk approach to quantify the impact of the network heterogeneity on large-scale flow and dispersion.     

How to cite: Dentz, M., Gouze, P., Hidalgo, J., and Kordilla, J.: Large scale flow and dispersion in heterogeneous karst aquifers under laminar and turbulent flow conditions    , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7383, 2025.

The slug test has been commonly used to estimate aquifer parameters. Previous studies on the slug test mainly focused on a single-layer aquifer. However, understanding the interaction between layers is particularly important when assessing aquifer parameters under certain circumstances. In this study, a new semi-analytical model on transient flow in a three-layered aquifer system with a partially penetrating well was developed for the slug test. The proposed model was solved using the Laplace transform method and the Goldstein-Weber transform method, where the semi-analytical solution for the model was obtained. The drawdowns of the proposed model were analyzed to understand the impacts of the different parameters on the drawdowns in a three-layered aquifer system. The results indicated that groundwater interactions between the layers have a significant impact on the slug test. In addition, a shorter and deeper well screen as well as a greater permeability ratio between the layers creates a greater interface flow between them, leading to a higher drawdown in the slug test. Finally, a slug test in a three-layered aquifer system was conducted in our laboratory to validate the new model, which indicated that the proposed model performed better in the interpretation of the experimental data than a previous model proposed by Hyder et al. (1994). We also proposed an empirical relationship to qualitatively identify the errors in the application of single-layer model for the analysis of response data in a three-layered aquifer system.

How to cite: Cao, M. and Wen, Z.: A novel semi-analytical solution of over-damped slug test in a three-layered aquifer system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7811, 2025.

Land reclamation provides available land for various purposes of development at coastal region. The filled sediments having different permeability with original land leads to the heterogeneity effects on groundwater regimes including groundwater head, seawater extent and so on, which were evaluated by several studies that unanimously adopt cross-section to represent entire aquifer (i.e., 2-D reclamation model). This study develops analytical solution for the response of groundwater system to size-limited land reclamation, investigating the permeability effects of reclaimed land. Laboratory experiment and numerical modelling were performed for the verification of derived solution and underlying assumptions, involving situations that hydraulic conductivity of created area is lower, same or higher than/with that of original land. Application of analytical solution in an illustrative aquifer found that the heterogeneous finite land reclamation induces less groundwater level rise than 2-D model, especially for inland constant-flux boundary condition, which would be attributed to the along-shore movement of flow. Moreover, less permeable filling material significantly reduces the flux and extends the travel time of groundwater within reclaimed land, invalidating its benefits of alleviating seawater intrusion from decreasing permeability. The analytical solution presented provides a suitable tool for preliminary prediction of changes to seawater extent and flow distribution caused by finite land reclamation.

How to cite: Zhang, J., Lu, C., and Sun, J.: Finite Land Reclamation at Coastal Region: Impact of Heterogeneity on Groundwater and Seawater Extent, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7996, 2025.

EGU25-9913 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.2

Integration of hydrologic and groundwater models: Is it profitable? 

Diego Meléndez-Saldaña and Félix Francés

TETIS is a distributed hydrological model represented conceptually by seven interconnected storage tanks. These tanks simulate various hydrological processes through water balance equations, resulting in the generation of three flow components: overland flow, interflow and base flow.

In relation to base flow, TETIS utilizes a storage tank that receives water from percolation, loses a portion of it due to deep percolation, and stores the remaining volume, which is subsequently released as base flow. This process is governed by a discharge coefficient, whose value depends on spatial and temporal scales, saturated horizontal hydraulic conductivity, and one of the eight correction factors involved in the calibration process of TETIS.

As is well known, base flow results from the interplay of various groundwater processes, including river-aquifer interaction, groundwater pumping, and others. Additionally, other factors significantly influence the base flow component, such as hydrogeological units, which often extend beyond hydrographic boundaries. This leads to inter-basin hydrogeological interactions, a phenomenon that exceeds the modeling capabilities of TETIS.

To address this limitation, an integration between TETIS and MODFLOW, a widely recognized groundwater model, has been implemented. In this framework, TETIS supplies recharge values to MODFLOW, while MODFLOW provides the base flow component to TETIS, enabling mutual feedback between the two models. As a result, the integration of both models is expected to yield improved hydrological modeling through their dynamic interaction.

To evaluate the performance of the TETIS-MODFLOW model, it has been implemented in Requena-Utiel aquifer, located in Valencia, Spain. This aquifer has been classified as being in a poor quantitative state since 2016, primarily due to the overexploitation of groundwater resources resulting from the transition from rain-fed agriculture to drip irrigation systems. The implementation results have been satisfactory in the sense that the integrated TETIS-MODFLOW model delivers better outcomes compared to the initially implemented individual models.

How to cite: Meléndez-Saldaña, D. and Francés, F.: Integration of hydrologic and groundwater models: Is it profitable?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9913, 2025.

EGU25-9930 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Effects of Railway and Port Infrastructures on the Quantitative and Qualitative State of an Urban Coastal Aquifer 

Carles Pérez-Castro, Daniel Fernandez-Garcia, Núria Ferrer-Ramos, and Carme Barba

Currently, approximately 40% of the world’s population is concentrated in coastal cities, and this figure is expected to continue increasing. In this context of demographic concentration in maritime cities, coastal aquifers constitute strategic water resources, particularly in arid or semi-arid regions and especially during drought periods. These aquifers are subjected to various anthropogenic and climatic pressures that affect the quantitative and qualitative state of their water resources. Among the anthropogenic actions, the increasing construction of underground infrastructure, such as tunnels for rail networks, stands out for its hydrogeological impact. Many of these structures are built between retaining walls and/or incorporate drainage systems that distort the natural flow network of the aquifer, while simultaneously reducing its resources. Additionally, the construction of inner docks involves a displacement of the coastline further inland. The combined effects of these actions on a coastal aquifer can exacerbate the advancement of saline intrusion, making it essential to quantify these impacts.

This study evaluates the combined quantitative and qualitative cumulative impact of infrastructure tunnels and an inner dock on the main aquifer of the Llobregat Delta (Spain) over the period 1966–2024. The conceptual and geological model of the aquifer was reviewed, followed by the construction and calibration of a 3D variable-density flow and chloride transport model in MODFLOW 6. The model discretization was designed to accurately reproduce the real geometry of the tunnels, their retaining walls, and the geological units.

Two simulations were conducted: one representing the current state with infrastructure and another reflecting a potential state without these structures. Differences were calculated between the mass balance, chloride concentration maps, and piezometric level maps of both scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that the construction of the dock in a geologically unfavorable area, combined with the piezometric depression caused by a high density of tunnel and basement drainage systems, were determining factors in the rapid salinization and high salinity levels of the western hemidelta.

The contribution of this study is a methodology for quantifying these effects in other coastal aquifers, while highlighting the importance of geological knowledge, the implementation of best construction practices, and the strategic location of such infrastructure to preserve the water resources of an urban coastal aquifer.

How to cite: Pérez-Castro, C., Fernandez-Garcia, D., Ferrer-Ramos, N., and Barba, C.: Effects of Railway and Port Infrastructures on the Quantitative and Qualitative State of an Urban Coastal Aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9930, 2025.

EGU25-10968 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Managed Aquifer Recharge as an Adaptation Strategy to Climatic and Hydrological Extremes 

John Craven, Abdelrahman, Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali, Margarita Saft, and Irina Engelhardt

Climatic and hydrological extremes increasingly pose a challenge to the successful management of water resources in the Lower Spree catchment in Brandenburg Germany, near Berlin. To increase the resilience to such extremes this study explores managed aquifer recharge (MAR) as a potential management strategy to address these challenges.  In this study we present the development and calibration of a high-resolution (approximately 2.65 million active model cells) groundwater model (MODFLOW)  in a complex geological setting, an assessment of MAR source water availability, identification of optimal recharge locations through a multicriteria site selection process, and preliminary results of an optimized recharge scheme based on a multi-objective optimization. The findings provide a decision support tool that stakeholders can utilize to evaluate MAR as part of an integrated water resources management strategy.

How to cite: Craven, J., Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali, A., Saft, M., and Engelhardt, I.: Managed Aquifer Recharge as an Adaptation Strategy to Climatic and Hydrological Extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10968, 2025.

Methods for understanding and predicting the impacts of groundwater extraction generally lack detailed spatial and temporal knowledge of subsurface hydromechanical properties. Estimating subsurface hydraulic properties using groundwater response to earth tides (ET) and atmospheric pressure is an alternative approach to pumping tests or “slug-tests”. These methods can be described as passive, since they use the forces of nature, as opposed to active methods requiring human intervention. These passive and inexpensive investigative techniques deserve to be developed to make analysis easily accessible. In this way, the hydromechanical properties of subsurface systems could be obtained with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution, adding further value to commonly acquired groundwater and atmospheric pressure data.

However, assumptions concerning conceptual models, parameterization of the hydromechanical problem and the influence of drilling on the results are given little consideration. This inverse problem can also benefit from Earth diurnal tides, and not just semi-diurnal as in the literature, to identify the right models to use and to reduce uncertainties in the estimated hydromechanical parameters (K, Ss). The amplitude ratio of diurnal to semi-diurnal waves and the phase shift sign are indicators of the conceptual model to be used, and the estimated transmissivities are in agreement with those of the pumping tests in the case study. In this context, we have shown that the amplitude of terrestrial tidal signals alone cannot be used to estimate the storage coefficient Ss.

We aslo showed that barometric tides can be used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity K of aquifers when the barometric and piezometric sampling time step is adapted to the hydraulic conductivity. When permeability is not very high, there is indeed a phase shift between the tidal wave in the aquifer and that in the borehole, and this can be related to K using slug-test models, with a clear signature on both synthetics and real data. 

We thus demonstrate the potential of natural drivers induced groundwater fluctuations to better conceptualize the hydrogeological model (unconfined, leaky, confined), as well as to assess hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity and specific storage.

How to cite: Valois, R., Rau, G., and Vouillamoz, J.-M.: What can we learn with barometric and earth tide induced groundwater level fluctuations ? From aquifer conceptualization to K and Ss assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11272, 2025.

EGU25-12892 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Investigating Multispecies Reactive Transport in Porous Media: A Simulation and Moment Analysis Approach 

Kumar Rishabh Gupta and Pramod Kumar Sharma

Contaminant migration in subsurface environments critically threatens groundwater, particularly near chemical and nuclear repositories. This study employs both the Finite Difference Method (FDM) and COMSOL for two-dimensional multispecies reactive transport modeling in saturated porous media. The models simulate advection, dispersion, and first-order decay and are validated against analytical solutions with excellent accuracy. A key feature is the incorporation of three dispersivity scenarios of constant, linear, and exponential distance-dependent dispersivities which is applied to radionuclide (RN) decay chains and chlorinated solvents (CS). A novel contribution of this work is the comparative analysis of these dispersivity scenarios, revealing their influence on solute plume mobility and retardation factors. Significant differences in retardation factors for RN and CS highlight the applicability of the model across diverse environments. Spatial moment analysis demonstrates that the species with the largest plume may not dominate subsurface migration. The application of effective dispersivity in interpreting tracer breakthrough curves significantly improves numerical precision and field relevance. The integration of FDM and COMSOL allows for cross-validation of results, offering a robust and reliable framework for modeling reactive transport. This approach provides enhanced insights into the long-term environmental impacts of reactive contaminants and aids in the development of effective remediation strategies. By integrating these numerical methods, the study delivers a valuable insight to mitigate contamination risks in sensitive environments, with broad applicability for safeguarding groundwater near chemical and nuclear repositories.

How to cite: Gupta, K. R. and Sharma, P. K.: Investigating Multispecies Reactive Transport in Porous Media: A Simulation and Moment Analysis Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12892, 2025.

EGU25-12994 | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Estimation of Aquifer Connectivity Metrics from Pumping Tests Data 

Nadim Copty, Buse Yetişti, Paolo Trinchero, and Xavier Sanchez-Vila

Subsurface flow parameters, such as transmissivity or storativity, are intrinsically heterogeneous and characterized by complex patterns of spatial variability. In the case of transmissivity, the presence of spatially connected flow channels can have significant impact on groundwater flow and contaminant transport. In this study, we investigate numerically the impact of point-to-point flow connectivity on radially convergent flow in constant rate pumping tests, focusing on how connected features influence the estimation of hydraulic parameters. Multiple heterogeneous aquifer systems with different levels of connectivity are synthetically generated and then used to simulate pumping tests. Different pumping test interpretation methods are used to estimate the flow parameters from the time-drawdown data and to investigate how the estimated parameters relate to the underlying heterogeneous distribution of aquifer parameters. In particular, the relations between the estimated parameters and static measures of connectivity, that are independent of the flow pattern, are examined. Results indicate that the estimated transmissivity value approaches the geometric mean of the transmissivity field irrespective of the level of aquifer connectivity. On the other hand, the estimated storativity is seen to be strongly influenced by aquifer point-to-point flow connectivity; yet, this influence is obscured as estimated storativity is also dependent on the spatial distribution of the transmissivity and the relative locations of the observation and pumping wells. The implications of these findings on the interpretation of constant rate pumping tests are discussed.

How to cite: Copty, N., Yetişti, B., Trinchero, P., and Sanchez-Vila, X.: Estimation of Aquifer Connectivity Metrics from Pumping Tests Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12994, 2025.

EGU25-13475 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.2

Quantification of inter-aquifer flow in a Multi-Aquifer System Using Regional Groundwater Modeling: Northwestern Desert, Egypt 

Mahmoud Abdelhamid Ahmed, Sherif Alaa Ibrahim, and Ahmed Emam Hassan

Under severe water stress, intensified by the lack of rainfall and upstream regulation of freshwater, Egypt has little choice but to turn to alternative water resources, such as groundwater. However, the largest groundwater source—the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer—is non-renewable, and its connections to other aquifers are complicated and remain insufficiently studied. Modeling such an aquifer—one of the largest in the world, spanning approximately 2 million square kilometers across Egypt, Sudan, Chad, and Libya—is a complex task, with existing studies largely limited to local scales.

 

This study aims to quantify inter-aquifer flow in the multi-layered hydrogeological system of the Northwestern Desert, Egypt, on a regional scale covering part of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer. The system comprises five aquifers and two aquitards, namely the Marmarika Limestone and Moghra Aquifers, separated from the Eocene Limestone Aquifer by the Al-Dabaa Shale Aquitard. The Eocene Limestone Aquifer is horizontally connected to the Shallow Nubian Aquifer and underlain by the Abu-Rawash Shale Aquitard, which separates it from the Deep Nubian Aquifer. A three-dimensional regional groundwater model was developed using a comprehensive dataset of lithology, water level, and extraction data. Calibration with over 1,000 historical measurements spanning five aquifers yielded aquifer properties and recharge estimates.

 

The model reveals the presence of vertical connectivity between the Eocene Limestone and Nubian Aquifer and interaction between Siwa lakes and the Limestone Aquifer. Results showed that discharge to Siwa lakes in 1960 was approximately twice the aquifer’s recharge from the Nubian Aquifer but has since declined by 30%, while recharge from the Nubian Aquifer increased by 10% by 2023. Flow from the Nubian Aquifer accounts for about 30% of current extraction from the Limestone Aquifer, indicating over-extraction in the region. Horizontal connectivity between the Limestone and Shallow Nubian Aquifers is minimal, contributing less than 2% of extraction in West Minya. This explains stable water levels in the Shallow Nubian Aquifer at Al-Bahariya despite significant extraction from the Limestone Aquifer at West Minya. The results offer valuable insights into the connections between the aquifers, supporting the development of future local models and clearly highlighting the risks of water salinization and aquifer depletion in the event of overextraction.

How to cite: Ahmed, M. A., Alaa Ibrahim, S., and Hassan, A. E.: Quantification of inter-aquifer flow in a Multi-Aquifer System Using Regional Groundwater Modeling: Northwestern Desert, Egypt, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13475, 2025.

EGU25-15707 | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Study on the Optimization of Monitoring Well Placement Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Maximum Entropy 

Tai-Sheng Liou, Yao-Ming Kuo, Tung-Ching Sun, and Chih-Tse Wang

  Certain limitations arise when utilizing the Monitoring Efficiency Model (MEMO) and Monitoring and Remediation Optimization System (MAROS) to evaluate monitoring well placement at contaminated sites. MEMO is restricted to one-dimensional groundwater flow analysis, while MAROS can only handle two-dimensional spatial distribution of contaminants. These constraints hinder the ability to account for variability in the three-dimensional spatial distribution of contaminants, leading to suboptimal monitoring well configurations. In particular, factors such as geological heterogeneity and contaminant characteristics (e.g., biodegradation, chemical degradation, and physical adsorption) may lead to contaminant omissions or inappropriate monitoring well density distribution, ultimately limiting the efficiency and accuracy of monitoring well placement.

  To address these challenges, this study proposes an optimized approach for monitoring well placement at three-dimensional groundwater contamination sites. The method integrates Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) to delineate contaminant plumes more accurately and provide optimal recommendations for monitoring well placement. BMA, utilizing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations and Bayesian inference, calculates the posterior distribution of multiple potential Conceptual Site Models (CSMs) by evaluating discrepancies between observed and simulated contaminant concentrations.

  Using the weighted CSM, the relative positions between existing monitoring wells and the contaminant plume can be evaluated. During the numerical simulation process, virtual observation points are added to enhance the richness and completeness of data distribution within the contaminated area, further improving the interpolation accuracy of BME. Through this improvement, BME can integrate simulated data with existing monitoring data to precisely predict the locations of additional monitoring wells, supplement critical monitoring data, and optimize the overall monitoring well placement strategy.

  Additionally, this study incorporates monitoring well-installation costs, the value of information (VOI), and trans-information entropy (TE) into a multi-objective optimization framework. By minimizing the objective function, Pareto-optimal solutions are obtained. The Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) is then applied to rank these solutions, enabling decision-makers to balance monitoring efficiency with cost considerations and implement flexible and effective monitoring configurations. It also verifies the feasibility of retaining a significant portion of critical monitoring information through VOI-based quantitative analysis, even with a reduced number of monitoring wells.

  The proposed optimization method has been validated through numerical simulations, demonstrating improved model accuracy under complex site conditions. The results offer adaptable, site-specific solutions that maximize both monitoring efficiency and economic viability.

 

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, Bayesian Maximum Entropy, groundwater contaminant transport, optimization of monitoring well placement

How to cite: Liou, T.-S., Kuo, Y.-M., Sun, T.-C., and Wang, C.-T.: Study on the Optimization of Monitoring Well Placement Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Maximum Entropy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15707, 2025.

EGU25-16178 | Posters on site | HS8.2.2

Regional scale simulation of integrated surface-groundwater model for a basin along the west coast of India 

Manikandan Shanmugarajasekaran, Bruno Majone, Diego Avesani, and Alberto Bellin

An integrated hydrological model plays a crucial role in maintaining and ensuring the sustainability of water resources. This study presents a test case for the development of an integrated surface-groundwater model using MODFLOW 6, the latest version of MODFLOW, and FloPy to simulate major hydrological processes and support sustainable water management in a tropical basin where the demand for fresh water is increasing at an alarming rate.

The model incorporates the Unsaturated Zone Flow (UZF), Streamflow Routing (SFR), and Water Mover (MVR) packages to simulate groundwater recharge, surface water dynamics, and interconnections between hydrological components. Input datasets include precipitation, PET, land use, soil, and hydrogeological properties to reflect the basin’s hydrological complexity.

The simulated model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow and groundwater head data to ensure accuracy and reliability. We showed that the model effectively reflects key hydrological processes, such as monsoon-driven recharge and surface-subsurface interactions. These findings show the model’s ability to guide water resource planning in the basin.

This study illustrates the applicability of MODFLOW 6 and FloPy for hydrological modeling in tropical basins and provides a foundation for assessing climate change impacts on regional water resources.

 

How to cite: Shanmugarajasekaran, M., Majone, B., Avesani, D., and Bellin, A.: Regional scale simulation of integrated surface-groundwater model for a basin along the west coast of India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16178, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16178, 2025.

Groundwater management within the water-energy-food-carbon (WEFC) nexus is inherently interdisciplinary, particularly in regions with significant groundwater-surface water interactions. Effectively balancing trade-offs and synergies among nexus components is critical for socio-economic and environmental sustainability. This study presents an integrated many-objective simulation-optimization (S-O) framework to address WEFC nexus management challenges in the lower Ain River basin (LARB), a typical alpine basin with intensive agricultural activities and river-aquifer (R-A) interactions.

The approach integrates a transient groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) to simulate the flow budget and R-A exchanges. These outputs inform the optimization process, which employs the NSGA-III metaheuristic algorithm to evaluate conflicting objectives, including groundwater supply, agricultural yield, energy consumption, and total carbon emissions from agricultural practices. The Pareto optimal front generated by this framework highlights sustainable withdrawal scenarios that minimize environmental degradation while balancing competing objectives. Three scenarios were developed to enhance decision-making based on nexus trade-offs, R-A exchanges, and carbon emissions. Results demonstrate that the optimized solutions achieve improved nexus outcomes, significantly reducing total carbon emissions while maintaining water supply and agricultural productivity. This many-objective S-O framework offers a robust tool for managing the WEFC nexus in river basins characterized by groundwater-dependent agriculture and complex R-A interactions, supporting sustainable resource management and climate resilience.

How to cite: Bajpai, M., Mishra, S., and Gaur, S.: A water-energy-food-carbon nexus optimization model for sustainable groundwater development in the lower Ain river basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20277, 2025.

The Upper Godavari (UG) catchment, India, faces critical water quantity and quality challenges driven by high evaporation rates and spatially variable rainfall, which significantly affects the catchment's hydrodynamics and threatens agriculture-based livelihoods. Understanding groundwater recharge processes and the impact of contaminants is essential for effective groundwater management. This study employs stable isotopes and tritium, alongside major ion geochemistry, to investigate hydrological processes in the riverine belt of the Western Ghats, characterized by Deccan basaltic terrain. Groundwater, surface water, and precipitation samples were collected in pre- and post-monsoon seasons (2022-2023). Post-monsoon stable isotope signatures indicate recharge predominantly from Indian monsoonal precipitation, while pre-monsoon stable isotopes reflect evaporation. The stable isotope signatures of the shallow aquifers imply rapid recharge and higher vulnerability to evaporation and contamination from agricultural runoff. In contrast, the stable isotope signatures of the deeper aquifers suggest older, more distant recharge sources with minimal recent contribution. Surface water closely resembles isotopically lighter monsoonal precipitation, and this plays a key role in recharging shallow aquifers. Tritium (³H) concentrations in groundwater (0.64 to 7.6 TU) locally exceed the annual average tritium concentration in modern rainfall (~7 TU), and locally higher values are observed post-monsoon and lower values pre-monsoon. This implies that most of the water in the subsurface is derived from recent rainfall with low transit times. Lumped parameter models (LPM) were used to estimate the mean transit times (MTTs) of groundwater, which ranged from <2 to 40 years. Older MTTs (25-40 years) were observed during the pre-monsoon season, reflecting slower recharge dynamics than the post-monsoon period (1.5 – 20 years). A mass-balance mixing model determined the contribution of each NO3 source to the UG catchment. Results from the mixing model indicated that NO3 from the irrigation return flow contributed 90%, and the other NO3 sources contributed 8% in groundwater. These findings demonstrate the value of a multi-tracer approach in unraveling the hydrological complexities of the Upper Godavari catchment. The relatively young groundwater indicates high recharge rates, underscoring the catchment's resilience in sustaining water resources. However, this also highlights its vulnerability to decadal climatic variations and contamination risks. By elucidating recharge mechanisms, contamination pathways, and groundwater depletion patterns, this study provides insights to support sustainable water management strategies tailored to the dynamic hydrogeological conditions of the region.

How to cite: Prasad, G., Cartwright, I., and Chinnasamy, P.: Investigating Hydrological Processes and Groundwater Dynamics in the Upper Godavari Catchment, India, Using Environmental Tracers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-274, 2025.

The aim of this study is to emphasize the growing importance of localized hydrogeological investigations when putting forward sustainable water resource management strategies at a regional scale. Accordingly, this research focuses on the hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical dynamics near the Kesikköprü Dam area, a vital water reservoir for Ankara, the capital city of the Republic of Türkiye. The region is notable for hosting Türkiye’s richest iron ore deposits, intensive agricultural activities, and mining operations. It was previously characterized by semi-permeable and impermeable units with limited groundwater potential. As part of this investigation, hydrogeochemical and isotopic characterization studies of groundwater in the area were conducted. To this end, 21 groundwater sampling locations (wells, springs, fountains, and open-pit mine lakes) were selected in the field, and five distinct hydrogeochemical facies were identified: CaHCO₃, NaMgHCO₃SO₄, CaMgHCO₃, CaNaHCO₃, and NaCaSO₄. The groundwater chemistry in the area is predominantly shaped by water-rock interactions and salinization through cation exchange. Some samples contained dissolved arsenic (up to 120 µg/L) and nitrate (maximum concentration 374 mg/L). Stable isotope analyses were performed on selected samples to examine the relationship between δ¹⁸O and δD. The results revealed that certain samples, particularly those collected from mining lakes and Kesikköprü Dam Lake, were influenced by evaporation. The slope of the evaporation line was found to align with the average relative humidity recorded at meteorological stations near the study area (Bala, Çelebi, and Kaman). In addition to field and hydrochemical investigations, remote sensing studies using satellite images and the identification of open-pit mine lakes provided solid evidence of groundwater presence. An investigation of recharge and discharge dynamics using satellite data from 2016 for one of the selected pit lakes showed that the lake was recharged by groundwater during the dry season, while the groundwater system was recharged by the pit lake during the wet season. Contrary to previous studies conducted at a catchment scale in the Kızılırmak Basin, the findings of this study suggest the possibility of interconnected shallow and deep groundwater systems in the region.

How to cite: Yurttaş, O. and Arslan, Ş.: Unlocking Hydrogeological Secrets on a Small Scale: A Case Study in the Kesikkopru Dam Region, Ankara, Republic of Turkiye, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-494, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-494, 2025.

EGU25-662 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Major Groundwater Chemistry of Contrasting Hydrogeological Settings in Uganda 

Derick Muloogi, George JL Wilson, Farah T. Ahmed, David A. Polya, and Laura A. Richards

Groundwater sustains about 75% of Uganda’s population, especially in rural and peri-urban areas [1,2]. While recent progress has been made to understand groundwater quality at the time of drilling [3], the baseline hydrogeochemical characteristics of operational community drinking water sources remain poorly understood, further complicated by potential surface-groundwater interactions [4]. This study assesses the variations in major groundwater chemistry and geochemical controls across five distinct hydrogeological settings in Uganda: Precambrian metasedimentary (MS; n=30), granulitic-gneissic complex (GG; n=21), unconsolidated sedimentary (SDM; n=10), volcanic (VO; n=7), and metavolcanic (MV; n=6), as well as surface water (SW; n=8). Hydrochemical facies are predominantly CaHCO3, with HCO3- as the dominant anion, reflecting limited geochemical evolution in shallow, discontinuous aquifers. However, NaHCO3 and NaCl facies dominate in MV and SDM settings, respectively, indicating cation exchange processes and more advanced geochemical evolution. The mean (Ca2++Mg2+)/(Na++K+) ratios were generally >1, except in SDM, suggesting reverse cation exchange, further supported by the ion balance plot (slope = –1; R² = 0.6). A mean (Ca2++Mg2+)/HCO3 ratio of ~1 across all settings suggests a dominant influence of carbonate dissolution. The (Ca2++Mg2+)/SO42– ratio was consistently high (>1), with a maximum of 74 for VO, indicating limited gypsum dissolution.  Similarly, (Na++K+)/Cl ratio was high (>1) across all hydrogeologies, with a maximum (17) in MV and a minimum (2.3) in SDM, suggesting minimal evaporative concentration and dominant meteoric recharge. The HCO3/Na+ ratio [5] was low (1–4) across all settings, with the highest in VO and lowest in SDM, reflecting the influence of silicate weathering.  Interestingly, mineral stability diagrams based on ion activity ratios suggest kaolinite as a stable secondary mineral in VO, in contrast to clinoptilolite in other settings. This likely reflects active monosiallitisation in volcanics, where rapid water flow, good drainage, and low silica favour kaolinite stabilisation. Geochemical modelling predicts undersaturation in calcite, dolomite, gypsum, and anorthite across all settings, while feldspars like K-feldspar and albite are supersaturated, with albite undersaturation mainly in VO settings. These findings reveal diverse geochemical processes shaping Uganda's groundwater chemistry, emphasizing the need for hydrogeologically-tailored groundwater monitoring and management.

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the University of Manchester Faculty of Science and Engineering Dean’s Doctoral Scholarship (to DM), the Dame Kathleen Ollerenshaw Fellowship (to LAR), the International Science Partnership Fund – England project (ODA), and UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/Y016327/1 to LAR). Thanks to the Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda for permissions, Jonny Huck for discussions, and the MAGU analytical team for lab support.

References:

[1]MWE, 2024. Water Supply Atlas: National Report.

[2]Nsubuga et al. 2014. Water Resources of Uganda: An Assessment and Review. J. Water Resour. Prot. 06, 1297–1315. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2014.614120

[3]Owor et al. 2021. Hydrogeochemical processes in groundwater in Uganda: a national-scale analysis. J. Afr. Earth Sci. 175, 104113

[4]Wilson et al., 2024. Surface-derived groundwater contamination in Gulu District, Uganda: Chemical and microbial tracers. Sci. Total Environ. 177118.

[5]Gaillardet et al., 1999. Global silicate weathering and CO2 consumption rates deduced from the chemistry of large rivers. Chem. Geol. 159, 3–30.

How to cite: Muloogi, D., Wilson, G. J., Ahmed, F. T., Polya, D. A., and Richards, L. A.: Major Groundwater Chemistry of Contrasting Hydrogeological Settings in Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-662, 2025.

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) plays a crucial role in coastal ecosystems by influencing nutrient cycling, water quality, and biological productivity, while also serving as a vital freshwater resource for coastal populations. Hydrogeochemical assessments, particularly isotope tracers, are pivotal in identifying water sources and understanding hydrological processes. However, the applicability of radioactive isotopes is often limited due to their decay over time. Thus, stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δ2H) seem promising tracers for identifying and characterizing SGD in coastal regions. Leveraging these stable isotopes, this study focuses on investigating SGD along the Eastern Arabian Sea coastline for effective water management. Groundwater discharge through the coastline was assessed by analyzing groundwater, porewater, and seawater samples for their stable isotopic compositions. In situ measurements of electrical conductivity (EC) were also conducted to differentiate between fresh, brackish, and saline SGD. Results indicate that δ18O values range from -3.23 to -2.67 ‰ in groundwater and -1.99 to -0.01 ‰ in porewater, while δ2H ranges from -20.21 to -11.36 ‰ and -16.31 to -1.12 ‰, respectively. The analysis confirms the presence of SGD at multiple sites, while few locations exhibit isotopic signatures and EC consistent with sea water (δ18O: 0.15‰, δ2H: 1.07‰, 43.80 ms/cm), likely influenced by tidal or wave-induced pumping. The SGD zones identified by hydrogeochemical analysis were further validated by sea surface temperature anomalies detected through thermal infrared data along the coastline. The findings of this study will be useful in coastal zone management, coastal urban planning, and mitigating saltwater intrusion risks in coastal aquifers.

Keywords: Stable isotopes, Submarine groundwater discharge, Eastern Arabian Sea

How to cite: Keshariya, A. and Yadav, B. K.: Investigating submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) along the Eastern Arabian Sea coast using stable isotope tracers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-868, 2025.

EGU25-930 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

The SeTe-ALCOTRA project to study the feasibility and the beneficial effects of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) in the Cuneo plain  

Maria Adele Taramasso, Elena Secco, Giacomo Tavernelli, Alessandro Casasso, Marino Gandolfo, Bartolomeo Vigna, Adriano Fiorucci, Tiziana Tosco, Rajandrea Sethi, and Paolo Algarotti

The use of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) has been increasing in recent years as a climate change adaptation measure to increase water availability in dry seasons, reduce the impact of subsidence, contrast the seawater intrusion, etc.

The SeTe project, funded by the EU programme Interreg ALCOTRA, involves the feasibility study and demonstration of MAR in the Cuneo plain, a large shallow alluvial aquifer at the south-western edge of the Po Plain. In this area, the availability of water for irrigation during summer has dramatically diminished in recent years, such as in 2017, 2021, and 2022, and these droughts have sparked the initiative for testing MAR as a low-cost countermeasure.

The three project pilot sites identified in the project - Beinette, Tetti Pesio-Morozzo and Tarantasca-Centallo - are characterized by the presence of “fontanili”, i.e. drainage trenches dug since the Middle Ages to reclaim marshy land by lowering the groundwater level, sometimes integrated by shallow free-flowing wells called “Calandra pipes”. The water extracted, with flow rates ranging from a few tens of L/s to values exceeding 1000 L/s, is channelled and used in fields located further downstream. Unlike wells, where the flow is determined by the activation of a pump, the flow rate of the springs depends on nearby groundwater levels and, during the aforementioned summer droughts, the groundwater level decline led to a substantial reduction or even the cessation of spring flows.

The project, started in October 2023, will last for three years to study MAR solutions to increase spring flow during the irrigation season.

Historical meteorological, geological, and hydrogeological data have been collected to reconstruct the climate impacts on water resources, to characterize the aquifer and understand the correlations between climatic variables and spring yields.

A groundwater level monitoring network has then been developed exploiting existing wells, the fontanili wells known as Calandra pipes, and nine newly drilled monitoring wells (three per site).

Three infiltration structures are now being designed and installed, testing two configurations (shallow trench and vadose zone well) to infiltrate water available in channels out of the irrigation season. To this purpose, core sampling and shallow excavations were performed, collecting samples to study the shallow stratigraphy and characterize the hydraulic conductivity of the shallow subsurface through Lefranc tests and grain size distribution analyses. As these structures will be built, the project will proceed with the monitoring and modelling of infiltration in the three sites, also from the point of view of water quality, and results will be analysed to assess the large-scale applicability of MAR in the Cuneo plain.

How to cite: Taramasso, M. A., Secco, E., Tavernelli, G., Casasso, A., Gandolfo, M., Vigna, B., Fiorucci, A., Tosco, T., Sethi, R., and Algarotti, P.: The SeTe-ALCOTRA project to study the feasibility and the beneficial effects of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) in the Cuneo plain , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-930, 2025.

Groundwater resources in Kabul City, Afghanistan, are experiencing critical stress due to overexploitation driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, and inadequate water management systems. This study highlights a rigorous and comprehensive assessment of groundwater overexploitation in the region, focusing on its causes, impacts, and long-term implications. Key challenges, including a dramatic decline in water tables (from 2014 to 2023 annually about -1.8 m/year on average, and a drop of 70 m in some areas), rapid urbanization (increased 42% from 1985 to 2023), deteriorating water quality (NO3ˉas dominant contaminants), the associated land subsidence phenomena (-5.3 cm annual from 2014 to 2019), the exacerbating effects of climate change (1 to 1.5 °C increase over recent decades) and weak governance frameworks are examined in depth. The analysis underscores the significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences of unsustainable groundwater use and highlights the urgent need for coordinated interventions.

An integrated framework for sustainable groundwater management is proposed to address these challenges. The framework encompasses technical measures such as artificial aquifer recharge, treatment and enhancement of surface water usage, climate-adaptive water-use strategies, and advanced groundwater monitoring technologies. These are complemented by institutional reforms, policy development, and active stakeholder participation to enhance governance and accountability. By integrating multidisciplinary approaches with community engagement, the framework aims to promote equitable, efficient, and resilient groundwater management practices that mitigate the impacts of over-extraction and climate change.

This research contributes to advancing the understanding of groundwater management in arid and semi-arid regions and offers practical insights for policymakers and water resource managers. The findings provide actionable strategies to address the dual crises of groundwater overexploitation and climate change in Kabul City and other vulnerable regions worldwide.

How to cite: Farahmand, A., Abrunhosa, M., and Nab, A. W.: Assessing Groundwater Overexploitation in Kabul City, Afghanistan: Challenges, Impacts, and the Path Toward Sustainable Management Through an Integrated Framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1682, 2025.

EGU25-2070 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Advancing Groundwater Management Strategies to Mitigate Land Subsidence 

Cheng-Yu Ku and Chih-Yu Liu

Groundwater extraction is a major driver of land subsidence, posing significant challenges in many regions. This study focuses on developing mitigation strategies through field experiments and numerical modeling, with severe subsidence areas in Taiwan selected as test sites for cyclic and reduced pumping trials. The analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between groundwater level changes and soil compression, as well as between groundwater level fluctuations and power consumption. Monitoring data from 24 wells indicated that groundwater extraction predominantly occurs during peak hours from 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM, while non-peak extraction spans 4:00 PM to 8:00 AM. Field experiments involving four wells under three scenarios—current conditions, cyclic pumping, and reduced pumping—demonstrated that cyclic pumping significantly reduced groundwater level drawdowns and soil compression compared to current practices. A three-dimensional numerical groundwater model was developed and calibrated to simulate these scenarios. Results showed that both cyclic and reduced pumping scenarios outperformed current conditions in minimizing drawdowns, with the optimal strategy being group-based cyclic pumping combined with a 50% reduction in extraction. These findings underscore the potential of targeted groundwater management practices in mitigating land subsidence effectively.

How to cite: Ku, C.-Y. and Liu, C.-Y.: Advancing Groundwater Management Strategies to Mitigate Land Subsidence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2070, 2025.

The Choshui Delta in Taiwan is experiencing accelerated land subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction and the impacts of climate change. Addressing this challenge requires advanced predictive tools to monitor and forecast subsidence over time. This study proposes a novel artificial intelligence (AI) framework combining Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for time-series land subsidence prediction. PCA is utilized to analyze eight critical factors influencing subsidence, reducing their complexity by extracting principal components. These components are then used as input features for the DNN model, enabling it to effectively capture the intricate, multi-factorial dynamics of subsidence. Validation of the model was conducted by comparing reconstructed groundwater level data with historical measurements, demonstrating high reliability and accuracy. The integration of DNN and PCA delivers precise predictions of subsidence patterns, offering a robust and scalable solution for managing subsidence risks in rapidly sinking regions like the Choshui Delta. This AI approach provides valuable insights for sustainable groundwater management and infrastructure protection in vulnerable areas.

How to cite: Liu, C.-Y. and Ku, C.-Y.: Innovative AI Strategies for Groundwater and Subsidence Management in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2075, 2025.

EGU25-2748 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Parametrization of River Aquifer Exchanges Enhancements in Managed Aquifer Recharge for Baseflow Restoration 

Ranveer Kumar, Shishir Gaur, and Anurag Ohri

The enhancement of stream flow has not been considered an objective in Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) projects due to the absence of a framework for quantifying River-Aquifer Exchange improvements. This work employs a numerical approach to assess the baseflow enhancement potential of a site. A novel metric, called the Baseflow Restoration Index (BFRI), has been developed to calculate the percentage increase in baseflow resulting from a unit rate of water injection.

Additionally, the capacity of the aquifer to be recharged has been quantified using a proposed metric known as the Permissible Aquifer Recharge Capacity (PARC). The PARC is defined as the maximum allowable rate of water injection at a site, taking into account the constraints of injection duration and permissible water head. By combining these two metrics, it is possible to determine the maximum potential baseflow enhancement achievable through the use of an injection well at a specific site.

The proposed metrics were applied in the Varuna River Basin, India, to evaluate the baseflow restoration potential of MAR projects. A straightforward TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method was utilized with the calculated metrics to rank the sites based on baseflow enhancement, groundwater storage improvement, and overall project cost. This framework employs a 3D-integrated numerical model of surface water and groundwater in the Varuna River Basin to determine the proposed metrics.

How to cite: Kumar, R., Gaur, S., and Ohri, A.: Parametrization of River Aquifer Exchanges Enhancements in Managed Aquifer Recharge for Baseflow Restoration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2748, 2025.

EGU25-2910 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Understanding hydrologic connectivity of groundwater and surface water in western Mexico using chemistry and stable isotopes 

Lorena Ramírez González, Selene Olea Olea, Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo, and Ruth Esther Villanueva Estrada

Surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) are deeply interconnected and can vary according to different hydrologic conditions, including physical, chemical and biological variations. Understanding the nature and extent of involvement between SW and GW is particularly important under global change, where the alteration of freshwater cycles and transformation of natural landscapes has led to widespread ecosystem degradation, as well as issues regarding availability and quality of water resources.

Therefore, the present work aims to identify relevant hydrological pathways at a regional scale using a combined approach to study GW-SW interaction in western Mexico, considering hydrochemistry, stable isotopes of oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H), and statistical analysis.

Stable isotopes data showed SW undergoing evaporation and becoming enriched in heavy isotopes. Widespread drought showed lake water (LW) isotopes enriched beyond the isotopic range observed in precipitation samples. Spatial differences of LW δ2H and δ18O suggest precipitation and GW as sources for only one of the lakes. Lake samples also exhibited the largest variability, as well as the lowest d-excess values reported for SW samples. Among GW samples, wells showed the most variability and hot springs the least. Major ions data showed strong thermal influence on groundwater processes, related to both tectonic and volcanic processes developed in the region.

Environmental tracers, such as stable isotopes can help us understand complex SW-GW interactions at a broader scale. This is particularly true for arid and semi-arid areas were interactions are becoming more complex under the effects of human activity.  

How to cite: Ramírez González, L., Olea Olea, S., Sánchez-Murillo, R., and Villanueva Estrada, R. E.: Understanding hydrologic connectivity of groundwater and surface water in western Mexico using chemistry and stable isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2910, 2025.

EGU25-2922 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Subsidence and sinkholes in Mexico's flow systems caused by intensive groundwater extraction 

Luis Jiménez, Oscar Escolero Fuentes, Selene Olea Olea, and Priscila Medina Ortega

Subsidence has become a critical issue in Mexico due to the intensive exploitation of groundwater resources. Understanding subsidence in the context of groundwater flow systems is vital for addressing the interaction between water flow patterns and land deformation, thereby improving resource management and preventing damage.

This study analyzed subsidence at a national level using tools such as satellite imagery and GNSS station data to identify and correlate the most affected areas. The evaluation incorporated groundwater flow systems, geological conditions (e.g., soil type, faults, and fractures), and hydrological factors (e.g., over-extraction and limited water availability) that accelerate subsidence.

The results include detailed maps prioritizing the most impacted areas, demonstrating a strong link between subsidence patterns and groundwater extraction. Twelve critical hydrogeological systems were identified, highlighting how local geological conditions and aquifer overexploitation exacerbate sinkholes, impacting ecosystems and infrastructure.

Additionally, predictive models were developed to simulate future subsidence scenarios based on current extraction trends and potential sustainable management strategies. These models provide valuable insights for optimizing water use and mitigating risks associated with subsidence and water stress.

This approach underscores the importance of integrating groundwater flow systems into water management policies to ensure sustainable resource use and minimize the adverse effects of subsidence.

How to cite: Jiménez, L., Escolero Fuentes, O., Olea Olea, S., and Medina Ortega, P.: Subsidence and sinkholes in Mexico's flow systems caused by intensive groundwater extraction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2922, 2025.

EGU25-2925 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Hydrogeochemical characterization from historical data of the groundwater flow system in the center of Mexico 

Aurora Guadalupe Llanos Solis and Selene Olea Olea

The Cuitzeo Groundwater Flow System, located in central Mexico within a volcanic rock region, encompasses two of the largest lakes in the country, Lake Cuitzeo and Lake Pátzcuaro. These lakes are sustained by both surface water and groundwater discharges, playing a critical role in local ecosystems and the surrounding population.
Groundwater is particularly important for maintaining the lakes' existence. However, the behavior of the groundwater flow system in this region has not been described before.
This study compiles data from 170 groundwater sites within the system, collected during the years 1983, 1990, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2014, and 2015. The compiled parameters include temperature (T°C), pH, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), and major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, SO42-, Cl-, HCO3-, CO32-, and NO3-). The compiled data were analyzed to study the historical behavior of the system, identify recharge and discharge zones, assess water-rock interaction processes, and trace the evolution of groundwater using hydrochemical diagrams such as Piper, Gibbs, and scatter plots.
The results highlight distinct chemical behaviors across the different zones of the study
area, with the most notable being ion exchange consistent with the weathering of volcanic silicates and interaction with lacustrine sediments. A key finding is the identification of a base-level discharge zone near Lake Cuitzeo. Water-rock interactions are the dominant process within the flow system, though some sites are influenced by precipitation and evaporation, and have a relation to the increased Lake Cuitzeo salinity that suggests a natural process of groundwater evolution within endorheic conditions.
This study is crucial as it offers valuable insights into the historical state of the groundwater flow system and highlights areas where additional data is needed to better understand its dynamics. For instance, the lack of data near Lake Pátzcuaro emphasizes the significance of this data compilation and underscores the need for further research in the region.

How to cite: Llanos Solis, A. G. and Olea Olea, S.: Hydrogeochemical characterization from historical data of the groundwater flow system in the center of Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2925, 2025.

EGU25-3742 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Advancing Sustainable Water Resource Management Through a Hydrogeological Conceptual Model of a Complex Multi-Aquifer System: A Case Study from the Spree River Basin 

Ata Joodavi, Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali Abdelrahman, Margarita Saft, John Craven, and Irina Engelhardt

Groundwater is the primary water source for urban and industrial use in the lower Spree catchment, southeast of Berlin, Germany, and supports critical groundwater-dependent ecosystems, including lakes, wetlands, streams, and springs. Recent droughts and groundwater overexploitation have caused declines in groundwater levels, lake water levels, and river flows. The region's complex hydrogeology, coupled with extensive human interventions in the hydrological cycle, highlights the pressing need for a comprehensive understanding of groundwater dynamics and aquifer-surface water interactions to ensure effective and sustainable water resource management. This study develops a high-resolution hydrogeological conceptual model for a complex multi-aquifer system, providing insights into groundwater recharge, flow mechanisms, and lake-aquifer interactions. A 3D geological model was constructed to represent aquifer lithology and structural heterogeneity, forming the foundation of the conceptual framework. Hydrogeological, hydrochemical, and isotopic analyses—employing tracers such as Tritium, Oxygen-18, and deuterium—revealed groundwater flow paths, recharge sources, and the aquifers connectivity. The study highlights dynamic lake-aquifer interactions, driven by meteorology, hydrogeological conditions, and human activities such as groundwater abstraction. A comparative water balance study between the two decades revealed significant variations driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, with minimal groundwater level drawdown during 2000–2009, compared to noticeable drawdown during 2010–2019. During the second decade, groundwater extraction increased by an additional 20.7 million cubic meters (MCM), rising from 196 MCM to 216.7 MCM. At the same time, aquifer recharge decreased by 67.8 MCM, dropping from 643.4 MCM to 575.6 MCM. This imbalance underscores the urgent need for sustainable groundwater management. The conceptual model revealed confined conditions in large parts of the aquifer system due to fine glacial sediments, making subsurface Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) methods such as Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) and Aquifer Storage Transfer and Recovery (ASTR) essential. Based on evaluation criteria, including the presence of a high-yield deep aquifer, continuous aquifer thickness (i.e., absence of clay lenses), proximity to the source water, and distance from existing extraction wells, potential MAR sites were identified. Moreover, using historical streamflow data and thresholds such as hydro-ecological limits, median daily flow, channel maintenance flows, the available surface water for injection into MAR projects was estimated for six locations across the study area. The yearly available surface water for MAR was found to range between 0.5 and 3.2 MCM per location, with a total of 7.4 MCM across all sites. These findings provide critical insights for sustainable groundwater management, ensuring water supply security, and protecting ecosystems in the Berlin-Brandenburg region.

How to cite: Joodavi, A., Abdelrahman, A. A. A., Saft, M., Craven, J., and Engelhardt, I.: Advancing Sustainable Water Resource Management Through a Hydrogeological Conceptual Model of a Complex Multi-Aquifer System: A Case Study from the Spree River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3742, 2025.

Groundwater plays a crucial role in the global water cycle. Unlike surface water, which exhibits immediate and observable reactions to environmental changes, groundwater is stored in aquifers beneath the Earth’s surface and demonstrates a more gradual response to external influences. The impact of environmental changes on the driving factors and interaction mechanisms of the water cycle introduces uncertainties regarding the renewal and response status of groundwater. This study aims to establish a comprehensive evaluation system to scientifically assess groundwater renewal capacity (GRC) and systematically elucidate the interaction processes between groundwater and various water sources during the recharge phase.

To meet urban water supply demands and mitigate the impacts of prolonged drought periods, Beijing has extensively relied on groundwater since the 1980s. However, since 2015, groundwater levels have exhibited an upward trend due to the implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, ecological replenishment initiatives, and several significant rainfall events. This region, which has undergone natural fluctuations characterized by periods of decline followed by recovery, serves as a pertinent case study for examining the responses of groundwater to both climatic influences and human activities.

The study elucidates the concept of GRC and identifies essential interaction and evaluation indicators between groundwater and external hydrological cycles. By considering factors such as groundwater sources, age, ion sensitivity, flow dynamics, and variations in burial depth, we evaluate GRC from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we examine the responsiveness and adaptability of groundwater to external drivers, as well as the characteristics of recharge areas, pathways, and the overall mobility and openness of the system.

The following results are observed: (1) the system exhibits a high degree of openness and rapid responsiveness, characterized by swift infiltration and mixing processes, as well as a strong correlation between groundwater levels and precipitation. The heavy rainfall experienced in 2023 resulted in significant replenishment and mixing, leading to a reduction in burial depth from 16.97m to 15.22m. Following the flood season, the young water fraction of groundwater in the Chaobai River and Yongding River basins was 11.2% and 30.7%, respectively. (2) In recent years, GRC have undergone significant changes due to intensive environmental events, which are reflected in variations in sources, age, water levels. While precipitation remains the primary source of replenishment, the proportion of direct precipitation infiltration has decreased. Conversely, river water recharge, particularly following flooding events, has emerged as a significant contributor near the river channel, accounting for 25%. (3) Spatial variations in GRC have been identified, and areas with high potential for utilization, as well as groundwater circulation depths, have been preliminarily determined. The hydraulic gradient and runoff velocity exhibit a gradual decrease from the top of the alluvial fan to the middle aquifer, which corresponds with a decline in GRC. Furthermore, as aquifer depth increases in the plain area, GRC also diminishes.

This study elucidates the dynamics of groundwater circulation and renewal within the context of changing hydrological conditions, thereby contributing to a better understanding and management of groundwater resources.

How to cite: Xu, J. and Wei, J.: Human Activities and Extreme Precipitation Boost Groundwater Renewal Capacity in the Beijing Plain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3934, 2025.

The presence of tides and subsurface dams adds complexity to the migration and mixing processes of land-sourced contaminant in coastal aquifers. While prior studies have explored the individual effect of tides and subsurface dams, their combined impact on the transport characteristics of land-sourced contaminant remains unclear. This study conducted laboratory experiments and numerical simulations to thoroughly investigate the migration and discharge behaviors of land-sourced contaminant in an unconfined coastal aquifer. The spatiotemporal variation, transport pathways, spreading, residence time and mass fluxes were analyzed in detail. Results demonstrate that a large low-velocity zone forms near the bottom corner upstream of the subsurface dam, and the mixing of the contaminant with residual saltwater in this zone substantially delays its discharge to the ocean. Compared to the nontidal condition, the addition of tides enhances seawater circulation within the saltwater wedge downstream of the subsurface dam while slowing particle transport in the freshwater zone. Moreover, increased tidal amplitude induces a time lag in the peak efflux of contaminant. The residence time of the contaminant is jointly affected by the subsurface dam, saltwater wedge and tidal forces. Sensitivity analysis indicates that a greater aquifer permeability and lower contaminant dispersiviy reduce the maximum spreading area while significantly promoting the maximum daily contaminant efflux. However, the residence time exhibits non‐monotonic relationships with respect to dam locations and aquifer permeabilities. The findings highlight the complexity of nearshore subsurface systems subjected to both natural and human factors, and have valuable insights for developing effective strategies to safeguard coastal environments.

How to cite: Yin, J. and Wu, Y.: Effects of Tides and Subsurface Dams on the Land-sourced Contaminant Transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5043, 2025.

Mountain hydrology and hydrogeology in the European Alps have been impacted by climate change, land use modifications, and evolving water consumption patterns. These factors have affected drought and flood dynamics, evapotranspiration, snow-to-rainfall ratios, and spring recharge mechanisms, introducing new rainfall patterns linked to increased average air temperatures. Consequently, understanding balance fluctuations in alpine aquifers is critical for predicting future water availability in mountain regions.

This study investigates hydrogeological dynamics at the catchment scale through the analysis of selected mountain springs in the Aosta Valley Region (northwestern Italy), specifically Promise Spring (1580 m a.s.l.), and Entrebin Spring (981 m a.s.l.). Given the complexity of contextualizing spring behavior within a rapidly changing climatic framework, innovative methodologies are required for a more detailed characterization of the inputs feeding the aquifers. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of hydrograph signals was applied to decompose environmental variables, enabling the identification of physical relationships between flow rate, temperature, and precipitation signals. Additionally, isotopic analyses of water samples, conducted according to V-SMOW2 standards, provided valuable insights into the origin and flow paths of groundwater recharge, leveraging the utility of Oxygen-18 and Deuterium for hydrogeological applications. The altitude of rainfall or snowfall deposition was subsequently determined using empirical relationships derived from the literature.

The integration of these two independent analysis techniques facilitated a comprehensive understanding of the nature and origin of water inputs feeding the springs. Moreover, the study elucidates the influence of climate change on the variability of spring discharge over both short- and long-term timescales. The findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of aquifer recharge dynamics and provide critical insights for the sustainable management of water resources in alpine regions. Their application to drinking water sources holds significant social implications, fostering more effective resource management strategies in the face of climate-sensitive variations.

How to cite: Gizzi, M. and Biamino, L.: Characterizing Recharge Dynamics of Mountain Springs in Aosta Valley (NW Italy): A Combined Harmonic and Isotopic Investigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6491, 2025.

EGU25-6591 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Long term changes in hydrometeorological controls on water recharge in a karstic Mediterranean basin 

Enola Fabre, Hervé Jourde, Yves Tramblay, Pascal Brunet, Anne Madziarski, Francois Bottet, and Line Kong A Siou

The Mediterranean basin is particularly vulnerable to climate change. These changes lead to disruptions in the hydrological cycle, potentially impacting groundwater resources and recharge. The hydrogeological catchment of the Lez karst Spring, located south of France north of Montpellier city is actively used to supply Montpellier Mediterranée Métropole (MMM), with drinking water. This study aims to assess the long-term hydroclimatic changes over the hydrogeological basin of the Lez Spring with an approach combining climatic and hydrological analyses. The main objective of this research is to assess eventual long-term trends in the climatic (rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture) and hydrological variables (piezometric levels, spring and river flows); a focus on the interrelationship between these different parameters is also performed to understand the hydroclimatic trend and temporal evolution of this highly anthropized aquifer. The analysis combines measurements of local soil and hydrogeological variables, with longer time series of meteorological observations and the French climate reanalysis SAFRAN since 1960, and the high-resolution COMEPHORE radar rainfall product since 2000 providing hourly rainfall intensities at the kilometric scale to investigate the spatial dynamics of rainfall. The trend analysis results indicated a strong increase of temperature but no significant changes in precipitation totals from the different datasets. However, a positive trend in annual maximum hourly rainfall intensities was detected, associated with an increased spatial variability of rainfall fields and flashiness characteristics. There is a sharp increase of potential evapotranspiration, associated with a decline in soil water content throughout the year. The piezometric levels do not exhibit significant trends since 2007, similarly to the water uptake for the consumption of the city of Montpellier. The combination of the different high-resolution datasets allows a deepened analysis of the relative effects of the contribution of extreme rainfall events and the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall patterns on the recharge processes of the aquifer. This study will ultimately provide the keys to more sustainable management of the karst water resource for drinking water supply in the face of climate change, through a better understanding of the functioning of the Lez spring Hydrogeological catchment.

How to cite: Fabre, E., Jourde, H., Tramblay, Y., Brunet, P., Madziarski, A., Bottet, F., and Kong A Siou, L.: Long term changes in hydrometeorological controls on water recharge in a karstic Mediterranean basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6591, 2025.

In the Gironde department (France), which relies on deep aquifers for 97% of its drinking water supply, groundwater management is critical to meet human needs while preserving ecosystems dependent on these resources. With a population of 1.7 million, including Bordeaux Métropole, and a history of overexploited aquifers identified as early as the 1990s, local stakeholders have adopted innovative approaches to ensure long-term resource sustainability.

Groundwater management in Gironde combines global and local strategies. At the global level, the SMEGREG (a public entity dedicated to deep aquifers) developed a trial-and-error methodology to determine extractable volumes, incorporating extraction scenarios, regional flow model simulations, and expert validation. A panel of hydrogeological experts - currently unique in France - examines variations in groundwater reserves and evaluates their acceptability. Adherence to these extractable volumes is now central to the region’s water management strategy.

However, meeting human water needs is not the only concern of local stakeholders. Locally, the focus shifts to preserving groundwater-dependent systems (wetlands, rivers, springs, etc.) by identifying these areas and maintaining critical piezometric levels. An atlas of groundwater-dependent systems is currently being developed. This atlas is designed to facilitate the management of interface environments and to provide a shared foundation for establishing operational management rules.

Additionally, a strong emphasis on public awareness and demand management has been pivotal. Programs such as "Espaces Info Économie d'Eau" (information booths on water resources and consumption management) and "L'eau un enjeu majeur" (school-based awareness programs) engage the public and students, while technical guides and communication campaigns encourage water-saving behaviors. These efforts have allowed the region to accommodate 300,000 new residents without increasing water extractions, demonstrating the effectiveness of managing demand to complement supply-side strategies.

By adopting this dual-scale approach, combined with a water-saving strategy, the Gironde department exemplifies how sustainable groundwater management can effectively balance the needs of human populations and fragile ecosystems. However, with the increasing population driving higher water demand despite the ongoing conservation efforts, and the significant influence of recharge modifications on these inertial hydrosystems, the ongoing revision of the Water Management Plan (SAGE) will provide an opportunity to collectively adapt our water management strategy to ensure long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Erostate, M. and de Grissac, B.: The role of deep groundwater management strategies in ensuring sustainable resource management and preserving dependent ecosystems Case study of the Gironde department, France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6976, 2025.

EGU25-7234 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Groundwater Flow Dynamics and Recharge Solutions for Sustainable Water Management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. 

Tran Trung Dang, Anke Steinel, Ba Quyen Pham, Thi Hoa Nguyen, Van Hoan Hoang, and Thanh Kim Hue Nguyen

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a low-lying region and one of the largest economic centers in southern Vietnam, with a population of approximately 18 million people.  Groundwater is a crucial resource in the region, serving essential functions in domestic, agricultural, and industrial domains.Due to increasing surface water pollution and salinization, its importance has been increasing. The geological composition of the region includes seven sedimentary aquifers: Holocene (qh), Middle-Pleistocene (qp3, qp2-3, qp1), Pliocene (n22, n21), and Upper-Miocene (n13). The lower confined aquifer system contains non-renewable groundwater that was replenished during the last sea level low stand. Unfortunately, the intensive extraction of groundwater has led to several negative impacts, including declining groundwater levels, saline intrusion and the potential threat of land subsidence in various locations. This is especially concerning due to the low elevation and low hydraulic gradient of the delta.

This study quantitatively the future changes in groundwater level in the VMD using a FEFLOW variable density flow and transport model, considering various climate change and groundwater exploitation scenarios. The results reveal a significant decline in groundwater levels by the year 2100: 15-25 m in the aquifers qp2-3, qp3, n22, n21, n13 and more than 35 m in the aquifer qp1 under the . The model results also showed the varying degrees of ongoing saline intrusion observed in both the Pleistocene (qp) and Neogene (n) aquifers, resulting from increased hydraulic gradients near the cones of depression and draining of saline paleo-groundwater from aquitards. To mitigate the risks associated with saltwater intrusion, it is recommended to strategically plan the placement of groundwater extraction wells at a considerable distance from the local saline boundary.

To decrease the demand for groundwater and slow down the decline in groundwater levels and subsequent land subsidence rates, it is advisable to implement measures such as (a) managed aquifer recharge, (b) the development of additional water sources like rainwater harvesting and desalination, and (c) the promotion of surface water treatment and utilization, especially in regions experiencing water scarcity. To assess the potential for managed aquifer recharge, an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) pilot project was implemented, recharging highly-treated surface water by gravity into two different confined aquifers. The results showed a considerable absorption capacity for both aquifers. Based on the recovery efficiency, ASR seems to be a feasible option for slightly brackish aquifers, but is not recommended for saline aquifers. For the upscaling of MAR, site feasibility must be assessed based mainly on water source availability and quality, as well as cost-benefit considerations.

Keywords: Mekong Delta, Groundwater Modelling, saltwater intrusion, Vietnam, FEFLOW, Managed Aquifer Recharge 

How to cite: Dang, T. T., Steinel, A., Pham, B. Q., Nguyen, T. H., Hoang, V. H., and Nguyen, T. K. H.: Groundwater Flow Dynamics and Recharge Solutions for Sustainable Water Management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7234, 2025.

EGU25-7622 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Patterns of Groundwater Salinization in the Yucatan Peninsula: Insights into the Ancient Karstic Maya Aquifer 

Christian Narvaez-Montoya, Rogelio Mondragon-Bonilla, Nico Goldscheider, and Jürgen Mahlknecht

The Yucatan Peninsula, situated in the Gulf of Mexico, is characterized by a unique karst topography that sustains groundwater-dependent ecosystems and holds significant archaeological sites of the Maya civilization. Despite its environmental and cultural importance, the region faces considerable challenges related to water quality. The karst landscape allows for easy infiltration of contaminants, while an extensive seawater wedge beneath the aquifer and the dissolution of gypsum from the Paleocene formations in the southern peninsula further limit the availability of freshwater. These factors complicate the provision of potable water, particularly in an area with insufficient sanitation infrastructure and a limited understanding of the aquifer system. This study offers the first detailed analysis of regional water quality trends in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on 1528 water quality samples collected from 1998 to 2022. Using pattern recognition of major ions along with dimensional reduction, network clustering, and traditional hydrogeochemical techniques, the study identifies key factors driving salinization across the region. Fourteen clusters were identified, linked to seawater intrusion, gypsum dissolution, widespread carbonate dissolution, and nitrate leaching. Approximately 23% of water samples from human-use sources exceeded acceptable sulfate and nitrate levels. The findings emphasize the critical need for ongoing water quality monitoring to inform future management strategies, particularly in the face of population growth, tourism, and climate change.

How to cite: Narvaez-Montoya, C., Mondragon-Bonilla, R., Goldscheider, N., and Mahlknecht, J.: Patterns of Groundwater Salinization in the Yucatan Peninsula: Insights into the Ancient Karstic Maya Aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7622, 2025.

Characterizing the degree of aquifer confinement with passive aquifer tests can partly replace aquifer pumping tests for reliable evaluations of sustainable yields for groundwater management. Where there is insufficient data for modelling in groundwater management units (GMUs), sustainable volumes for pumping allocations are currently defined by several different methods, depending on the degree of aquifer confinement.

We present methods, results and limitations of using passive aquifer tests to characterize confinement. These are demonstrated across south-west Victoria, Australia where a state-wide program of sustainable yield assessment is in progress. Research methods included high resolution pore pressure sensors and tidal subsurface analysis (TSA) of responses to earth tide and barometric effects, with several quantitative diagnostic criteria. Results at 38 monitoring bores across seven GMUs were mapped in this part of the research. An example is presented for TSA results of both unconfined and confined conditions in a GMU that would require more detailed studies prior to large scale groundwater pumping. However, in another example, TSA analysis verified confined conditions with high confidence for a GMU where confined sustainable yield assessment methods applied. Therefore, utilising a confined aquifer to augment town water supply during drought could be an appropriate management strategy to avoid unacceptable long-term groundwater drawdown.

It is recommended that passive test methods are better utilized as a routine step for assessment of sustainable yield, particularly for GMUs at high risk of unacceptable drawdown and environmental impacts. The possibility that confined aquifer systems become semi-confined over-time could be readily monitored using these passive test methods. These relatively low cost of passive TSA methods could use existing data, where suitable. Passive test diagnostics can better characterize groundwater systems and improve sustainable water management.

How to cite: Timms, W. and Chowdhury, F.: Passive test diagnostics of confined to unconfined groundwater systems for sustainable water allocations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7773, 2025.

EGU25-7780 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

"Convergence between Regional Groundwater Flow Systems and Territorial Units: Towards Integrated Water Management" 

Alessia Kachadourian and Maria del Carmen Carmona Lara

Water management must be defined within a coherent territorial unit. Marismas Nacionales, internationally recognized as a RAMSAR site, harbors one of the biosphere's most extensive mangrove systems. This region constitutes a regional discharge zone of Regional Groundwater Flow Systems, which provide the primary source of continental water sustaining the development of mangroves and their subsequent ecosystems and strategic environmental services.

However, the current polygon of the protected natural area excludes the recharge zones that generate the Regional Groundwater Flow Systems, essential for the subsistence of these internationally significant ecosystems. The proper understanding and development of Tóthian Theory is key to integrating the uniqueness and ubiquity of the hydrological cycle and its environmental dynamics, which, together with the mapping of Regional Groundwater Flow Systems and territorial management units, enables the identification of critical points in the water-territory unit. This information and knowledge are essential for developing Environmental Impact Assessment processes to: i) strengthen the identification of current and future relevant consequences and impacts; ii) adjust the polygon, or polygons, of the protected natural area; and iii) redesign conservation measures both within and outside its territorial boundaries, ensuring robust hydro(geo)logical environmental characterization and evaluation that poses the correct questions to the answers manifested in the landscape. Therefore, mapping Regional Groundwater Flow System zones is essential for redesigning the legal-administrative framework and directly implementing integrated water management in the territory that safeguards the regenerative capacity of water as a system.

 

 

How to cite: Kachadourian, A. and Carmona Lara, M. C.: "Convergence between Regional Groundwater Flow Systems and Territorial Units: Towards Integrated Water Management", EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7780, 2025.

EGU25-9448 | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Assessment of the Slaná River contamination impact on groundwater quality 

Anna Molnárová, Andrea Ľuptáková, and Jaroslava Urbancová

In February 2022, the siderite mine in Nižná Slaná (Slovakia) was flooded. Because of this accident, mine water with an enormously high content of iron, manganese, arsenic, nickel and sulfates began to flow into the Slaná River and ferrous ocher with a high content of arsenic was precipitated. It caused intense turbidity of water and deterioration of the ecological status of the Slaná River.

For representative assessment of the impact of this accident on groundwater quality, the results of groundwater quality monitoring in 18 sampling sites (groundwater wells) of the State Hydrological Network were assessed for selected determinants (iron, manganese, arsenic, antimony and nickel), which could have impact on the deterioration of the groundwater status in the interested area. The area where the contamination impact was investigated was the area from the Nižná Slaná River to the state border with Hungary.

The assessment was based on long-term results of groundwater quality monitoring since 2000. We focused mainly on assessment of quality change in 9 sampling sites located directly in alluvial sediments of the Slaná River.

From the total number of 7,587 measurements since 2000, the worst groundwater quality was in Betliar, where the highest concentrations of manganese, iron and arsenic were measured. However, we should note, that in comparison with the previous monitoring period of sites in alluvial sediments of the Slaná River, above – limit concentrations were repeatedly determined even in the period before the accident of the siderite mine in Nižná Slaná.

Despite the results of the monitoring so far, there is still a risk of pollution caused by the flooding of the former siderite mine, and it is therefore necessary to continue to pay increased attention to this area and further monitoring of the impact of pollution of the Slaná River on groundwater quality.

How to cite: Molnárová, A., Ľuptáková, A., and Urbancová, J.: Assessment of the Slaná River contamination impact on groundwater quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9448, 2025.

EGU25-9760 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Safe yield of deep groundwater aquifers - a case study from mineral water production 

Marlis Hegels and Thomas Baumann

Deep groundwater aquifers offer a high-quality drinking water supply and serve as a vital reserve in emergencies because no prior treatment is required. However, considering its slow replenishment, deep groundwater in its original hydrochemical composition, and age structure has to be considered as a finite resource. At the same time its extraction alters both the hydraulic and hydrochemical dynamics of the aquifer. Ensuring the long-term availability and protection of mineral water necessitates sustainable management practices to prevent depletion of the reservoir or "mineral water mining".

This study aims to develop concepts determining the sustainable yield of mineral water, using time-series of the hydrochemical signature and persistent organic trace substances. Together with production data this concept elucidates the flow paths in the deeper aquifer and the availability of the mineral water resource. The different approaches are discussed and illustrated using a deep groundwater aquifer that has been used for bottled water production since the early 1900s. Following the stop of the production in 2020 we observed a rather rapid increase of the hydraulic potential and a slower decrease of persistant trace chemicals. The concentration of dissolves solids recovered faster for the deeper wells compared to the more shallow wells. The hydrochemical signature reveals a change in the ion ratios which can be attributed to changing mixing ratios in the groundwater wells.

The unique data collected before and after the shut-down of the operation suggests that the mineral water, in its original composition has been depleted in the shallow parts of the stratified fracture aquifer. The concepts developed in this study would have suggested a lower limit to the extraction rates and volumes to sustain the operation.

How to cite: Hegels, M. and Baumann, T.: Safe yield of deep groundwater aquifers - a case study from mineral water production, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9760, 2025.

EGU25-10074 | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Hydrogeological reconstruction of Baranja region (NE Croatia) as a key input for sustainable water management 

Kosta Urumović, Marco Pola, Marko Copić, Matko Patekar, Igor Karlović, Staša Borović, Josip Terzić, Branko Kordić, and Izidora Marković Vukadin

The preservation of good chemical and quantitative status of a groundwater resource requires a detailed management plan that needs to account for the site-specific hydrological and hydrogeological settings and the utilization of the groundwater resource. Management plans are particularly crucial in areas with a complex surface water-groundwater interaction or an unevenly distributed exploitation of the resource.

This research aims to reconstruct the hydrogeological setting of the Baranja region (NE Croatia; area of 1,172 km2) extending between the Drava River to the S and W and the Danube River to the E. Effective water resource management is crucial in Baranja. The steady growth of tourism capacities (33% increase in last 5 years), particularly in rural tourism and the Nature Park Kopački rit, drives increasing demand for water. The Nature Park Kopački rit holds particular natural and touristic value since it hosts a rich swamp ecosystem along the backwaters and ponds of the Danube and Drava rivers that strictly depend on the surface water-groundwater interaction. In addition, the agriculture industry in the region is well developed with several farms feeding one of the biggest food industry in Croatia. Despite the natural and economic appeal, the population density in Baranja is low with the inhabitants concentrated in a few settlements. The water supply system is fed by 3 well fields with a few active wells reaching a depth of 40-60 m and providing a total of 40-50 L/s. Farms and many small activities use local wells that provide water for different industrial uses. Surface water flow of rivers and main canals is regulated by several pumping stations. These conditions result in an unevenly distributed anthropic pressure on the surface water-groundwater system that could cause localized overexploitation or pollution.

Hydrogeological investigations in Baranja have been mostly conducted in the main well fields. This research includes the regional hydrogeological mapping of the aquifer system and the continuous monitoring of the groundwater level and its physico-chemical parameters. Currently, stratigraphic logs from different sources and results of well testings have been collected and digitalized in a geodatabase that contains approximately 200 wells and exploration boreholes. These data will permit to develop a 3D reconstruction of the hydrogeological setting and to plan both a continuous monitoring of the water level and a periodic sampling of the groundwater. The obtained results will represent key inputs for a comprehensive understanding of the surface water and groundwater interaction and their utilization, the reconstruction of the main geochemical processes in the aquifer, and a sustainable groundwater management.

Acknowledgment: This research was conducted in the scope of the internal research project BAKA at the Croatian Geological Survey, funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan 2021–2026 of the European Union – NextGenerationEU and monitored by the Ministry of Science, Education and Youth of the Republic of Croatia, and the and the PACT-VIRA project of the Croatian Science Foundation, grant number IP-2024-05-9190.

How to cite: Urumović, K., Pola, M., Copić, M., Patekar, M., Karlović, I., Borović, S., Terzić, J., Kordić, B., and Marković Vukadin, I.: Hydrogeological reconstruction of Baranja region (NE Croatia) as a key input for sustainable water management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10074, 2025.

EGU25-10996 | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Groundwater management under instationarity: scenario simulations  for the Wairau Aquifer, New Zealand 

Thomas Wöhling, Moritz Kraft, and Peter Davidson

Groundwater resources are fully allocated in many coastal aquifers in New Zealand. External forces such as a reduction in recharge and climate change add additional pressure for a sustainable management of the resource. Groundwater levels in the unconfined Wairau Aquifer (Marlborough, New Zealand) have been declining for decades due to both natural and human-made reasons and are  superimposed by strong seasonal variability and increasingly also climate-change effects. Groundwater is abstracted mainly for irrigation (viticulture) but also for municipal and industrial uses. There are growing concerns that current management limits and thresholds in the regional water plan are not sustainable.

A detailed 3D surface water-groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) is used to investigate the effect of different groundwater allocation scenarios on groundwater storage and the flow of low-land springs which possess high cultural and recreational values for the community. An earlier version of the model (Wöhling et al. 2018, Groundwater, doi:10.1111/gwat.12625) has been recently extended and updated with an improved conceptualization. The regional-scale model was calibrated using 2.5 years of data and evaluated on more than 20 years which include two major flood events (18/07/2021 & 21/8/2022) that rank among the highest on record. Uncertainty of model simulations are estimated using Null-Space Monte Carlo simulations. The regional-scale model performs well with respect to observed groundwater heads, spring flows and river-groundwater exchange flows and generally agrees well to the data, even for the flood events in 2021 and 2022.

Current groundwater management regulations are cut-off limits at four goundwater observation wells and at a major spring as well as a total abstraction volume of 73 million m³ per year. Under current conditions, groundwater abstraction for irrigation can vary widely between years, while industrial and municipal water demands remain relatively constant. The actual groundwater abstraction is on average only 30% of the permitted annual allocation limit. However, the cut-off limits for groundwater levels and spring flows have been approached and exceeded frequently in recent years. This occurs in the summer months, when irrigation demand is high and river recharge and groundwater storage are on a seasonal low.

The simulations show a strong impact of irrigation water takes on groundwater depletion in summer. Compared to current conditions, a scenario with the full permitted annual abstration leads to significantly lower groundwater levels, aquifer storage and spring flows which would lead to continuous cut-offs given current regulations in the regional management plan. Under past climatic conditions, a strong increase in carry-over effects of storage depletion to consecutive years is not evident. But it has been shown previously that prolonged summer low-flow periods lead to low groundwater storage that may take several wet years to recover.

The scenario simulations suggest that the hard cut-off levels in the current management plan are not suitable for the future groundwater mangement of the Wairau Aquifer. A lowering of the annual allocation limit for irrigation to 20-25 M m³/a seems appropriate for the near-future and would not impose severe restrictions on farmers under current land-use practice.

How to cite: Wöhling, T., Kraft, M., and Davidson, P.: Groundwater management under instationarity: scenario simulations  for the Wairau Aquifer, New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10996, 2025.

EGU25-11025 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

A multidisciplinary approach for groundwater quality assessments in complex hydrogeological settings 

Andrea Cisternino, Barbara Casentini, Stefano Amalfitano, Marco Melita, Rosa Gatta, and Elisabetta Preziosi

The groundwater quality assessments are challenging in complex hydrogeological settings and highly anthropized areas where geogenic and anthropogenic pollution may coexist. The objective of this study was to elucidate groundwater quality patterns beneath an inactive landfill in a coastal region of central Italy by integrating chemical-physical and geochemical parameters with isotopic and microbiological analyses. The groundwater under the landfill, predating the EU Landfill Directive (1999/31/EC), is under pump-and-treat remediation. The site features a complex stratigraphy of fluvio-palustrine sediments, eolian sands, and volcanic deposits of Pleistocene age, with a water table aquifer overlying Pliocene clays. Sampling was performed from 13 piezometers within the landfill and two surface water sites between March and July 2024. Laboratory analyses were conducted to measure the concentrations of major, minor, and trace cations and anions (with a specific focus on Fe, Mn, and As), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, δ13C, tritium and 87Sr/86Sr). Microbiological analysis were performed by flow cytometry (microbial cell abundance) and spectrofluorimetry (microbial respiration rates).

Upgradient of the landfill, the aquifer exhibits oxidizing conditions, with low concentrations of metals and bicarbonates. Electrical conductivity (EC, μS/cm) is higher near the most upstream piezometers, where chloride concentrations exceed 800 mg/L. In the downgradient zone, high concentrations of Fe (4.2 mg/L) and Mn (1.1 mg/L) – occasionally exceeding the legal limits for groundwater – are associated with the strongly reducing conditions of the aquifer, driven by the presence of fluvio-palustrine deposits rich in peat, as identified through available borehole logs. The presence of As (1.3-15.4 μg/L) was likely due to interaction of groundwater with the volcanic deposits in the area.  The leachate-tracer tritium showed generally lower activity (0.4-5.5 U.T.) than previous measurements, implying that historical contamination is currently declining. DOC concentration has a range from 0.5 to 7.4 mg/L, higher downgradient. Surface water sampled in two sections in the nearby river is highly oxygenated and rich in organic matter. Microbial cell abundance ranged from 104 – 105 cells/mL in most of groundwater samples, with higher values downgradient (106 cells/mL). Microbial respiration showed an inverse relationship with DOC exclusively in downgradient piezometers.

These data indicated a highly specific hydrogeological and geolithological context, further complicated by anthropogenic activities throughout the region. As suggested by the Na/Cl ratio and the 87Sr/86Sr ratio, high chloride seems linked to mixing with fossil seawater, likely associated with a geological history marked by marine incursions following the end of the last glaciation (Würm). Elevated metal levels were connected to anoxic conditions promoted by the occurrence of fluvio-palustrine sediments, where heterotrophic microbial communities consume oxygen for organic matter degradation.

Our findings highlight the critical need for tailored monitoring strategies that consider the unique hydrogeological and geolithological characteristics of the site, ensuring effective long-term management and protection of groundwater resources in similarly complex environmental settings.

How to cite: Cisternino, A., Casentini, B., Amalfitano, S., Melita, M., Gatta, R., and Preziosi, E.: A multidisciplinary approach for groundwater quality assessments in complex hydrogeological settings, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11025, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11025, 2025.

EGU25-11089 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Contrasting Salinity Patterns and Spatiotemporal Groundwater Dynamics in Complex Endorheic Aquifer Systems: Insights from Chemical and Isotopic Tracers 

Ahmed El-Azhari, Yassine Ait Brahim, Florent Barbecot, Mohammed Hssaisoune, Hamza Berrouch, Abdessamad Hadri, Ahmed Laamrani, Youssef Brouziyne, and Lhoussaine Bouchaou

Understanding geochemical dynamics and salinity patterns in aquifer systems of endorheic basins is crucial for water resource management in arid and semi-arid climates. These environments, often characterized by intense agriculture and limited water availability, face significant challenges due to water scarcity and elevated groundwater salinity. This study investigates the geochemical processes shaping salinity patterns in interconnected shallow and deep aquifers within a structurally complex endorheic basin. A comprehensive dataset of groundwater samples from 213 wells across two aquifer systems in Bahira, central Morocco, was analysed for major ions and stable isotopes. Known for agriculture, Bahira faces notable issues of water scarcity and high groundwater salinity. The results highlight contrasting salinity levels, with the shallow aquifer exhibiting extreme salinity (EC up to 60,000 µS/cm) due to enhanced evaporation and soil leaching, whereas the deep aquifer maintains relatively lower EC values (500 to 3,000 μS/cm). Spatial analysis reveals a west-to-east salinity gradient driven by recharge variability and hydrogeological connectivity. Geochemical data underline the critical role of water-rock interactions, gypsum dissolution, and ion exchange in controlling salinity. Stable isotope analyses corroborate these findings, demonstrating evaporative enrichment and distinguishing between local recharge sources for the shallow aquifer and regional contributions from high-altitude precipitation in the deep aquifer. These insights enhance understanding of the hydrogeochemical dynamics in endorheic basins, emphasizing the interplay of climatic, geological, and anthropogenic factors in shaping groundwater quality. The findings offer broader implications for sustainable water management in similar arid environments worldwide.

How to cite: El-Azhari, A., Ait Brahim, Y., Barbecot, F., Hssaisoune, M., Berrouch, H., Hadri, A., Laamrani, A., Brouziyne, Y., and Bouchaou, L.: Contrasting Salinity Patterns and Spatiotemporal Groundwater Dynamics in Complex Endorheic Aquifer Systems: Insights from Chemical and Isotopic Tracers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11089, 2025.

EGU25-11585 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Aquifers quantity and quality evolution within urbanized coastal areas: insights from piezometric and geochemical analyses of the Deep Continental Terminal Aquifer in Côte d’Ivoire 

Armandine Doris Durand, Christelle Marlin, Véronique Durand, Bernard Adiaffi, Elisabeth Gibert-Brunet, and Yéï Marie-Solange Oga

Coastal groundwater resources can be complex to study, due to temporally variable saline water intrusion associated with sea level variation. In the current climate change context, the challenge of rising sea level in West Africa is compounded by the pressures of a growing coastal population. In the densely coastal African cities, groundwater resources are therefore subject to major impacts on their quantity and quality by both sea-water intrusion, enhanced by aquifer over-exploitation, and pollution due to the lack of sanitation facilities, while freshwater needs are growing.

The aim of this work is to propose an integrated approach by combining hydrodynamic and geochemical studies in order to develop sustainable management strategies of the main coastal aquifer of the Greater Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire. This area accounts for 36% of the national population and whose main source of drinking water is the Continental Terminal (CT) aquifer.

In 2024, a field campaign conducted on a set of 28 piezometers, reaching depths of up to 300 meters, enabled a 3D analysis of the aquifer. Current piezometric data align with the topography, but temporal data show a continuous decline in water levels. From a geochemical point of view, groundwater has generally a very low to moderate mineralization, with electrical conductivity values ranging from 21 to 2830 µS/cm (average of 288 µS/cm). However, groundwater tends to be more mineralized at greater depths in urbanized areas, where nitrate concentrations are higher. The waters of the CT aquifer are characterized by high acidity, with an average pH value of 5.1, reflecting the silicate nature of the aquifer, amplified by sulfide oxidation and dissolution of high amounts of soil CO2. Furthermore, some piezometers show relatively high chloride concentrations (600-756 mg/l), combined with isotopic ratios 18O and 2H similar to those of seawater. These observations suggest the presence of saline intrusion in some coastal deep wells, as well as recharge by ancient waters, particularly in areas covered by Quaternary deposits.

How to cite: Durand, A. D., Marlin, C., Durand, V., Adiaffi, B., Gibert-Brunet, E., and Oga, Y. M.-S.: Aquifers quantity and quality evolution within urbanized coastal areas: insights from piezometric and geochemical analyses of the Deep Continental Terminal Aquifer in Côte d’Ivoire, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11585, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11585, 2025.

The global water crisis, amplified by climate change, illustrates the pressing need for sustainable groundwater management, especially in semi-arid regions where water resources are under severe depletion.

In Zaghouan region of northern Tunisia, groundwater overexploitation, degradation of water quality (notably due to nitrate pollution and salinization), and the effects of climatic change are all threats to human livelihoods and ecosystems. Groundwater is the region's main source of water, provide drinking water, they are also essential for agricultural and socioeconomic development. However, insufficient surface water supply, harsh weather conditions, and high evaporation rates are all factors that compromise its long-term sustainability.

This study relies on a multidisciplinary approach, integrating geology, lithostratigraphy, hydrology, hydrogeology, and environmental tracers (major ions, noble gases, and isotopes: δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ³H, ¹⁴C, δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O-NO₃, and δ¹⁵N-NO₃) to investigate the dynamics of three key aquifers: the Jurassic limestones of Djebel Zaghouan and the Mio-Plio-Quaternary aquifers of the Sminja and Oued Rmel plains.

Groundwater samples were taken during three major campaigns: (1) October-November 2023, concentrating on major ions, stable isotopes, and tritium; (2) February-June 2024, targeting noble gases and radiocarbon (¹⁴C/¹³C); and (3) November 2024, assessing major ions, organic contaminants and nitrate isotopes. Preliminary findings shows that waters are classified into three types based on their chemical facies (sodium chloride, calcium sulfate chloride, and a mix between these two endmembers). Some of the samples exhibit chloride concentrations up to 8 g/l and sulfate concentrations up to 5 g/l. Furthermore, nitrate contamination is present in 25% of samples, and five samples exceed 100 mg/l.).

Occurrence of organic contaminants testifies to the general degradation of water resources quality caused by wastewater and the use of pesticides in the agricultural sector.

Stable isotope analysis identifies two different groundwater groups. The first group is isotopically aligned with local precipitation, indicating direct recharge processes. It is found mostly in deep and shallow wells in all aquifers. The second group shows isotopic signatures indicative of evaporation. It is found in shallow wells (depth < 20m). Most samples have tritium values above 0.5 TU, indicating that the aquifers have been recently recharged. Ongoing noble gas analyses will refine recharge estimates, including the determination of groundwater age using T-He.

This research advances our knowledge of semi-arid groundwater flow patterns and offers practical advice for integrated groundwater management.  The case study of the Zaghouan region offers valuable insights that can effectively address the challenges posed by climate change and human impact.

How to cite: Jarraya, A.: A multidisciplinary approach for sustainable groundwater management in a semi-arid region: A case study in Zaghouan region  (northern Tunisia), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11596, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11596, 2025.

The transboundary water resources of the Lower Colorado River Basin necessitate robust and collaborative governance frameworks to address pressing challenges associated with drought conditions and escalating water demands in both the United States and Mexico. Recent Minutes (319, 323, and 330) under the 1944 Water Treaty between the United States and Mexico highlight the critical challenges related to water allocation from the Colorado River, exacerbated by prolonged droughts that have significantly impacted the Upper Basin in recent years. However, few of these Minutes integrate surface water and groundwater management as a core strategy for achieving sustainable resource use, despite the increasing strategic importance of groundwater as a vital supply source for various user groups and economic sectors. This study employs Gravity-Driven Groundwater Flow Systems Theory to analyze publicly available geospatial and environmental data, offering an indirect characterization of regional groundwater flow components. The approach leverages natural features and groundwater data to identify surface manifestations of regional groundwater systems, including recharge and discharge dynamics. The results include cartographic evidence that underscores the critical systemic interrelationship between groundwater and the natural environment, particularly in the context of anthropogenic impacts such as groundwater abstraction and land-use changes. Through environmental interpretation of hydrogeological indicators—including groundwater depth in wells, perennial surface water features, topographic relief, vegetation patterns, and soil characteristics—this study identifies regional recharge and discharge zones shared by Mexico and the United States. These zones illustrate the interconnected nature of transboundary groundwater and its reliance on cross-border collaboration for sustainable management. However, significant data gaps persist between the two nations, particularly in the standardization of methodologies for data collection, interpretation, and spatial coverage. The absence of a consistent and comprehensive framework for studying regional groundwater flows shared across the border underscores the need for enhanced binational coordination. This research emphasizes the necessity of integrating hydrological data and harmonizing policies to ensure equitable and sustainable water resource management in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Addressing these challenges through cooperative mechanisms will be critical for mitigating the impacts of superficial water scarcity and securing the long-term sustainability of shared transboundary water resources.

How to cite: Abud Russell, Y. and Hatch Kuri, G.: Surface manifestations of regional groundwater flow systems in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Environmental understanding and management opportunities for a transboundary basin., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11814, 2025.

EGU25-12418 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

How climate change affect spring discharge and what we can do to improve water management 

Nicolas Rinaldi, Raffaele Rossi Ronca, Francesco Ronchetti, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni

Climate change can significantly impact on water resource, in terms of quality and quantity. In a changing world the climate can intensify the vulnerability of hydrogeological systems such as karst aquifers. The combination of long dry summers with the change in the trend of precipitation (characterized by few but very intense events) is expected to influence the storage of water that could intensely decrease with important consequences on potable water in mountain area. Also, the quality of water may change, water turbidity and water pollutants can increase.

The aim of this work is to better understand the behavior of a karst spring (Praondè) located in the province of Lecco, in the town of Civate. The purpose is to understand the behavior of the spring under different climate conditions for a better management of water resource. In the beginning, precipitation and temperature data, extrapolated from ARPA Lombardia, were analyzed to identify a specific climate trend in this area. Then, thanks to the collaboration with Lario Reti Holding S.p.A, discharge data of the spring were analyzed and paired with precipitation and temperature data.

From September 2023 different samples were collected at the spring and since the end of 2024 we started collecting precipitation samples. All the samples were collected to define the ratio of oxygen and deuterium isotopes. To describe the behavior of the spring, several parameters were detected. These parameters provide us with information on how fast the aquifer is draining and the level of vulnerability of the spring. The most important parameter detected is the depletion coefficient α (Maillet, 1905). The outcome of this analysis is important for trying to predict the possible behavior of the spring in extreme drought conditions.

The primary objective of this study is to enhance data quality by improving monitoring systems, thereby enabling more precise and effective management of water resources

How to cite: Rinaldi, N., Rossi Ronca, R., Ronchetti, F., Papini, M., and Longoni, L.: How climate change affect spring discharge and what we can do to improve water management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12418, 2025.

EGU25-12959 | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Exploring Groundwater Quality in Volcanic Islands: Lessons from El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain) 

Miguel Angel Marazuela, Jon Jiménez, Carlos Baquedano, Jorge Martínez-León, Samanta Gasco-Cavero, Noelia Cruz-Pérez, Juan Carlos Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Groundwater resources on volcanic islands are vital for societal and economic development, especially due to their scarcity and reliance on agriculture and tourism. This study examines the hydrogeological and hydrochemical processes shaping groundwater quality in volcanic islands, focusing on El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain). The findings reveal that volcanic dykes play a critical role in controlling groundwater flow, creating freshwater reservoirs, and influencing flow paths. Four primary processes affecting groundwater quality are identified: seawater intrusion, volcanic CO₂ emissions, nitrate contamination from fertilizers, and CO₂-driven water-rock interactions. A 3D groundwater flow model shows that the anisotropy in hydraulic conductivity induced by volcanic dykes reduces seawater intrusion in specific areas, thereby enhancing groundwater quality. Volcanic CO₂ emissions are found to lower pH, increasing acidity and altering groundwater chemistry. CO₂-driven water-rock interactions result in the dissolution of basaltic minerals, raising concentrations of key rock-forming elements such as sodium (Na), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), and silica (SiO₂) in groundwater. Additionally, nitrate pollution is linked to fertilizer use, particularly in agricultural regions. These insights highlight the need for sustainable water management to address the challenges posed by salinization, pollution, and volcanic activity. This research not only advances understanding of El Hierro's groundwater system but also offers a framework applicable to other volcanic islands with similar hydrogeological conditions, supporting improved management strategies for freshwater resources.

How to cite: Marazuela, M. A., Jiménez, J., Baquedano, C., Martínez-León, J., Gasco-Cavero, S., Cruz-Pérez, N., Santamarta, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Exploring Groundwater Quality in Volcanic Islands: Lessons from El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12959, 2025.

EGU25-13188 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Understanding the behaviour of naturally occurring radioactive isotopes in groundwater towards sustainable drinking water resource management  

Anita Erőss, Reyana Dawn Urbiztondo Garcia, Katalin Hegedűs-Csondor, Petra Baják, Viktor Jobbágy, Bálint Izsák, Ákos Horváth, Viktória Kohuth-Ötvös, and Márta Vargha

Demand for groundwater resources as drinking water is highly increasing worldwide. Groundwater accounts to 92% of drinking water sources also in Hungary. Through rock-water interactions, different elements can be enriched in groundwater including naturally occurring radioactive elements, which may have considerable health risk. Due to the hierarchically organized movement of groundwater, the spatial distribution of dissolved solid content, and associated physical, chemical and kinetic processes are also systematized. Areas of different hydraulic regimes even within the same aquifer are characterized by different geochemical environments, which is decisive in case of the mobility of redox-sensitive elements, such as uranium and radium. The groundwater flow system approach, therefore, helps to understand the origin of the different physicochemical characteristics and components of groundwater. Moreover, the vulnerability to any changes depends also on both the type of the hydraulic regime and the order of the hierarchically nested flow system.

This study aimed to identify the cause of gross alpha activity exceeding the parametric value of 0.1 Bq/L in groundwater-derived drinking water in northwestern part of Hungary using a regional groundwater flow system approach. Sampling of springs, drinking water and thermal wells was performed in 2021 and in 2024. In-situ water quality parameters were recorded on the field. The concentrations of major ions and trace elements, oxygen and hydrogen isotopic ratios and activity concentration of radioactive isotopes (uranium, radium, radon) were determined by laboratory measurements. Local groundwater flow conditions were characterized by pressure-elevation profiles. In drinking water samples total U activity concentration up to 540 mBq/L was measured that can be connected to local geogenic sources related to the metamorphic outcrop of Sopron Mountains and to the Pannonian sediments in its surroundings. The radionuclide-specific measurements explained that the elevated gross alpha activity identified in several drinking water wells is a result of dissolved uranium favored by the prevailing oxidizing environment of local flow systems and/or recharge areas. Low activity concentrations of 226Ra and 222Rn were measured in all samples except one sample, where 301 mBq/L of 226Ra and 219 Bq/L of 222Rn activity concentration was found. The presence of radium could be attributed to regional flow systems; however, the high concentration of radon activity cannot be accounted for solely by the decay of radium calling for further detailed investigation. The results highlight also that climate change induced groundwater level decline will enhance the problem with uranium. This work has been implemented by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014) project within the framework of Hungary's National Recovery and Resilience Plan supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility of the European Union. Furthermore, some radioactivity measurements were supported by the open-access scheme of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) (Research Infrastructure Access Agreement No. 36227-1). 

How to cite: Erőss, A., Garcia, R. D. U., Hegedűs-Csondor, K., Baják, P., Jobbágy, V., Izsák, B., Horváth, Á., Kohuth-Ötvös, V., and Vargha, M.: Understanding the behaviour of naturally occurring radioactive isotopes in groundwater towards sustainable drinking water resource management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13188, 2025.

EGU25-13305 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Modeling groundwater-dependent ecosystems under increased complexity: the case of Northern-Italy lowland springs 

Paolo Colombo, Margherita Pirovano, Claudia Medina Montecinos, Pietro Mazzon, and Luca Alberti

Although overlooked, groundwater is crucial to sustain life itself and consequentially also human life and its activities. Groundwater sustainability relies on a delicate balance between recharge and discharge, in which both human uses and behavior play an important role. If not adequately managed and planned, pumping rates for human consumptions, as well as changes in irrigation practices, can alter the balance between inputs and outputs, potentially damaging groundwater-dependent ecosystems. This is the case of lowland springs in Northern Italy, called “fontanili”: man-made-pits and canals dug from the XIV century to reclaim large zones of the Po plain, which have been used since to irrigate fields while generating biodiversity hotspots right in the middle of one of the most polluted and urbanized areas in the European Union.

The role of these groundwater-dependent ecosystems has been studied in the past, but their relationship with groundwater still holds some uncertainties: How does this type of lowland spring interact with the aquifer along its course? How much do they influence the surrounding groundwater system?

To answer these questions, this work presents numerical models in MODFLOW that, with increasing complexity, reproduce a single fontanile’s behavior based on in-situ observations and literature. The pros and cons of the different methods are explored, also considering their applicability at larger scale and increased number. Results bring more light to these unique systems’ behavior and show concrete and successful possibilities of representing them inside a well-known and broadly utilized software, aiming to foster their consideration in management plans to prevent their depletion. This research has been developed in the context of MAURICE project (CE0100184).

How to cite: Colombo, P., Pirovano, M., Medina Montecinos, C., Mazzon, P., and Alberti, L.: Modeling groundwater-dependent ecosystems under increased complexity: the case of Northern-Italy lowland springs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13305, 2025.

Keywords: Karst aquifer, drought, Tanour and Rasoun springs, Jordan

Due to limited precipitation and water resources, Jordan mainly depends on groundwater resources to address water scarcity challenges. This puts tremendous pressure on groundwater resources that increased due to population growth, droughts, and the effects of climate change. In Jordan, there are more than 800 springs. The most important springs emerge from karst aquifers, where some larger share of recharge is facilitated via inflow into karst surface features, concomitant with a generally higher risk to pollution due to mobilization of pollutants in the course of extreme events.

Tanour and Rasoun karst springs are among the most important karst springs in Jordan.  The springs that discharge from upper Cretaceous limestones, are located in the northern part of Jordan and served as the main local water supply for surrounding villages.

The main challenge in developing a drought early warning system for karst springs is the application to sparsely gauged karst aquifer catchments, such as Tanour and Rasoun Springs. To meet this challenge we performed further measurements on spring-water hydrological and physico-chemical variables, along with projection of drought indicators recently employed for an adjacent karst aquifers with higher data availability.

Records for different parameters in Tanour Spring were monitored, on an hourly basis, since 2014 (i.e. Water temperature (c°), Conductivity (ms/cm), Salinity (sal), TDS (g/l), Density (g/l), pH, Oxygen content (mg/l), Oxygen saturation (%), Turbidity (NTU), TSS (g/l), and Flow (m3/h) (the flow pressure probe has discontinuity in measurements due to some physical problems in the probe). Moreover, offline probes were installed in the Rasoun Spring to monitor water temperature and electrical conductivity.

The long-term monitored data is used to develop an integrated method to determine groundwater recharge and predict droughts in the karst aquifers to support water management in this semi-arid region.

How to cite: Hamdan, I., Kavousi, A., and Sauter, M.: Development of a process-based method to predict droughts in karst aquifers- A case study of Tanour and Rasoun springs, North of Jordan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13967, 2025.

EGU25-14467 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Regulatory effects of lacustrine groundwater discharge-derived carbon and nitrogen on biogeochemical processes in a large shallow eutrophic lake 

Xiaoyan Shi, Xin Luo, Jiu Jimmy Jiao, Jinchao Zuo, Xingxing Kuang, and Jiaqing Zhou

Eutrophic shallow lakes are hotspots of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) accumulation and transformation, and are increasingly recognized as important sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO2, CH4 and N2O). Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) is a crucial component of the water budget and terrestrial material delivery for lakes, but its interplays with intrinsic C-N biogeochemical processes remain less tackled. In this study, C and N ingredients and multiple stable isotopes (δ2H, δ18O, δ13C, and δ15N) were measured seasonally in groundwater, river water and lake water of a large eutrophic shallow lake in eastern China. The results revealed that groundwater is enriched with various forms of C and N that have similar sources and pathways as surface water in lake and rivers. The isotope balance model also indicated that LGD-derived C and N contribute significantly to lake inventories in addition to river runoff. These allochthonous C and N provide extra substrates for related biogeochemical processes, such as algae proliferation, organic matter degradation, methanogenesis and denitrification. Simultaneously, the excess oxygen consumption leads to depletion and hypoxia in the lake, further facilitating the processes of methanogenesis and denitrification. LGD functions not only as an external source of C and N that directly increases GHG saturations, but also as a mediator of internal C-N pathways, which significantly affect hypoxia formation, GHG productions and emissions in the eutrophic lake. This study highlights the unrevealed potential regulation of LGD on biogeochemical processes in the eutrophic lake, and underscores the need for its consideration in environmental and ecological studies of lakes both regionally and globally.

How to cite: Shi, X., Luo, X., Jiao, J. J., Zuo, J., Kuang, X., and Zhou, J.: Regulatory effects of lacustrine groundwater discharge-derived carbon and nitrogen on biogeochemical processes in a large shallow eutrophic lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14467, 2025.

This study is aimed to delineate and determine its hydraulic properties in Wama catchment with drainage area of 3,390 km2, in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Western Oromia, Ethiopia. The tertiary volcanic rocks are the predominant geologic units, which make up 83.36% of the region. The main tools utilized for data processing and interpretation include ArcGIS 10.4, Global mapper 23.0, Surfer 20, Strater 5, AQTEVSOLV Pro.4.5, and Microsoft Excell. Aquifers’ structures were manually delineated with Surfer via 19 boreholes and 13 shallow wells using lithologic units whereas hydraulic properties were estimated from constant pumping test data of 1 shallow well and 17 boreholes using AQTEVSOLV Pro based on a single well test approach by clustering into western, northern, north eastern, central and southern regions. Due to variations in the deposition of geologic units, the study area's aquifer structure's thickness varies both vertically and laterally. Materials like sand, gravel, scoria, and fractured and weathered volcanic rocks were considered as good aquifer whereas clay, pyroclastics, and massive basalts are aquitards. Semi-confined aquifer type dominates majority of the catchment except the central region which is confined aquifer based on available lithologic units, position of water level and pumping test data using AQTEVSOLV Pro. Transmissivity (T) of western, north eastern and central region varies from 0.94-64 m²/d, 22.4-60 m²/d and 23.4-30 m2/d respectively, indicating intermediate aquifer potential for extraction of local water supply (dominant). In northern region, transmissivity (T) varies from 12.3-827 m2/d, implying high aquifer potential for withdrawal of regional importance. Specific capacity (SC) of western, northern, north eastern and central regions ranges from 1.15-157 m²/d, 16-632 m²/d, 41-78 m²/d, and 4 - 43 m2/d respectively. Transmissivity of southern part is 10.4 m2/d (potential for local water supply). In this study, the correlation of T and SC is about 97% indicates direct relationship. Therefore, the higher transmissivity value shows the aquifer is supplying adequate water towards the well across aquifer thickness and the higher specific capacity shows the well has good efficiency for water extraction. 

Key words: Aquifer structure; hydraulic properties; Wama catchment; volcanic rocks.

How to cite: Debela, S. K., Feyessa, F. F., and Walraevens, K.: Identifying the structure of a volcanic aquifer and estimating its hydraulic properties: A case of Wama catchment in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Western Oromia, Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15054, 2025.

EGU25-15289 | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Reducing 3D Hydraulic Interferences in Water Tunnels through the Strategic Installation of Artificial Bulkheads in Geological Hydraulic Barriers 

Alejandro García-Gil, Jorge Martínez-León, Rodrigo Sariago, Carlos Baquedano, Jon Jimenez, Samanta Gasco Gasco, Gerardo Meixueiro Ríos, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Ivan Hernández Ríos, Juan Jesús Coello Bravo, and Juan Carlos Santamarta

Water tunnels play a crucial role in managing groundwater resources on volcanic islands, where freshwater availability is limited and highly sensitive to climate change impacts. However, hydraulic interferences between water tunnels and surrounding aquifers often lead to unintended drawdowns, reduced efficiency in water resource utilization, and ecological disturbances. Addressing these challenges is essential to enhance the resilience of critical water infrastructure, particularly in regions like the Macaronesian islands, which are the focus of the GENESIS project.

This study explores the strategic installation of artificial bulkheads within water tunnels, restoring existing geological hydraulic barriers to mitigate three-dimensional hydraulic interferences. By integrating these engineered solutions with nature-based approaches, it is possible to regulate groundwater flow, minimize hydraulic connectivity, and protect aquifers from saltwater intrusion. Hydrogeological modeling and geotechnical analysis were employed to assess the performance of this approach under various operational and climatic scenarios.

The results demonstrate that the implementation of these devices significantly reduces hydraulic interferences, stabilizes aquifer drawdowns, and improves the efficiency of water capture and storage. Furthermore, these solutions enhance the resilience of groundwater systems to external stressors, including over-extraction, seasonal variability, and the impacts of extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods.

This work aligns with the GENESIS project's mission to develop geologically enhanced nature-based solutions (NbS) for climate-resilient water management in the Macaronesian biogeographical region. By harmonizing engineering and natural systems, this methodology provides a replicable framework for securing freshwater resources on volcanic islands and other vulnerable regions in the EU, ensuring sustainable socio-economic and ecological development in the face of climate change.

 

How to cite: García-Gil, A., Martínez-León, J., Sariago, R., Baquedano, C., Jimenez, J., Gasco, S. G., Meixueiro Ríos, G., Marazuela, M. Á., Hernández Ríos, I., Coello Bravo, J. J., and Santamarta, J. C.: Reducing 3D Hydraulic Interferences in Water Tunnels through the Strategic Installation of Artificial Bulkheads in Geological Hydraulic Barriers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15289, 2025.


Artificial recharge of groundwater is a sustainable approach to mitigate water scarcity, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study explores the utilization of wells for artificial groundwater recharge in dam reservoirs to enhance water storage, using remote sensing technology, geographical information systems, and groundwater surveys as well as meteorological data. The findings reveal that artificial recharge rates surpass natural recharge from rainfall, significantly enhancing groundwater storage. In addition, recharge wells effectively reduced evaporation losses from reservoirs and contributed to supplying groundwater aquifer. The study recommends the establishment of strategic water storage projects using artificial recharge wells, an increase in monitoring wells around dams, and the monitoring of hydrochemical changes in groundwater pre- and post-recharge. This research underscores the importance of integrating advanced technologies and strategic planning to optimize artificial recharge, reduce evaporation, and sustainably manage groundwater resources in arid regions.

How to cite: Alrehaili, A.: Enhancing Groundwater Storage Through Artificial Recharge in Arid region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15974, 2025.

EGU25-17065 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Water contamination in the Anzasca valley (NW Italy): the long-term effects of historical Au-mine activities 

linda zaniboni, Manuela Lasagna, Giovanna Antonella Dino, and Domenico Antonio De Luca

Gold mining activities can have long-lasting impacts on the environment. These impacts include soil and water contamination due to the generation of acidic drainage (AMD) and the release of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including metals and metalloids as well as other chemical residues derived from ore processing.

In the Anzasca Valley (NW Italy), the Pestarena and Crocette gold mines were exploited from the Middle Ages until their final closure in 1961. The study area is an alpine valley where paragneiss, mycascists and orthogneiss outcrop. The metamorphic rocks at the valley floor are covered by alluvial deposits that host a phreatic aquifer connected to surface water bodies.

The gold mineralisation is associated with sulphides (pyrite and arsenopyrite) that were initially processed by mercury amalgamation, followed by cyanidation. Waste from ore processing was abandoned in the large area near the processing plants and deposited in waste dumps. The mobilization of PTEs due to the leaching of mining waste and the drainage of mine waters has led to significant soil and water contamination.

Previous studies of soils in the area indicate acidic conditions, with pH values ranging from 3.8 to 6.2, and concentrations of PTEs exceeding Italian legislative threshold, including antimony (up to 40 mg/kg), lead (up to 2360 mg/kg), mercury (up to 470 mg/kg) and in particular arsenic (up to 25800 mg/kg). Furthermore, surface water (SW) found arsenic concentrations peaking at 280 µg/l. However, until now, no studies have evaluated the quality of groundwater (GW) in these areas.

The current study aims to assess the level of water contamination in Pestarena and Crocette. Analyses were carried out during three water sampling campaigns in May, July and September 2024, to highlight possible chemical variations over time in GW and SW. In Crocette, 11 samples were collected, including 2 GW samples and 9 SW samples. At Pestarena, 18 samples were collected, equally divided between GW and SW. pH varied slightly but remained neutral or sub-acid, while electrical conductivity (EC) and total dissolved solids (TDS) increased during the summer months, with particularly high levels observed in GW near the waste dumps in Pestarena. Arsenic levels exceeded the Italian limit (70 µg/l) in 83% of the GW and SW samples. While other metals remained at low concentrations in SW, elevated levels were found in GW at Pestarena downstream of the mining waste, including aluminium (up to 7266 µg/l), iron (up to 1785 µg/l), lead (up to 25 µg/l), manganese (up to 276 µg/l) and nickel (up to 86 µg/l). Cyanide and mercury analyses are currently underway.

These preliminary results confirm that GW also is affected by past mining activities and emphasise the need for long-term monitoring to assess contamination levels and future remediation activities. Further studies are needed to fully understand how factors such as precipitation, snowmelt and soil characteristics influence these parameters, as well as the mobility and concentration of PTEs throughout the seasons.

How to cite: zaniboni, L., Lasagna, M., Dino, G. A., and De Luca, D. A.: Water contamination in the Anzasca valley (NW Italy): the long-term effects of historical Au-mine activities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17065, 2025.

EGU25-17605 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Assessing the impact of semi-permeable cover on karst with natural tracer and physico-chemical monitoring. Example of the Moulineaux spring (Dordogne, France) 

Maxime Jolly, Guillaume Lorette, Nicolas Peyraube, Roland Lastennet, and Alain Denis

Undercover karst are characterized by limestone formations underneath a variability thick, low-permeability cover. Karst landforms such as sinkholes or swallow holes are thus not very frequent in these environments. This leads to a high inertia of the environment. This makes it complex to use the tools and methods usually employed to characterize a system and complexify in the interpretation of usual chemical methods to understand the role of the cover karst system.

The covered karst system of the Moulineaux spring  is a key resource for the urban area of Perigueux (France) by ensuring the supply of drinking water to more than 60,000 inhabitants. It’s average flow rate is 820 L.s-1 and can range between 118 L.s-1 and 4 000 L.s-1. The karstic system is mostly covered by a thick semi-permeable layer of alternating marly limestone, alterite rocks and sediments dating from the Campanian period (Upper Cretaceous). Its sizeable catchment area spans more than 80 km² more than 50% of which is occupied by agricultural activities.

A year-long monitoring campaign of physical-chemical parameters has been conducted at the spring, complemented by periodic analyses of major chemical elements at several locations within the study area. A combined approach was used to analyze long-residence-time tracers such as magnesium and silica, natural markers of anthropogenic pollution such as nitrates, potassium, sulfates, pesticides, and short-residence-time tracers, including artificial tracers, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements, physico-chemical parameters, and pCO2​. The results were integrated into a conceptual model of the karst spring, highlighting the significant role of the semi-permeable cover in influencing groundwater quantity and quality. While this cover acts as a natural buffer and filter, anthropogenic markers revealed significant variations in water quality linked to the hydrological cycle.

How to cite: Jolly, M., Lorette, G., Peyraube, N., Lastennet, R., and Denis, A.: Assessing the impact of semi-permeable cover on karst with natural tracer and physico-chemical monitoring. Example of the Moulineaux spring (Dordogne, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17605, 2025.

EGU25-17879 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.3

Influence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Fontanili (Lowland Springs) and Shallow Aquifers in the Southern Turin Po Plain (Italy) 

Federico Emanuel Franco, Manuela Lasagna, Domenico Antonio De Luca, Daniele Cocca, Elena Egidio, and Maria Rita Minciardi

Fontanili are peculiar lowland springs that occur in Northern Italy along the transition zone between the higher and lower Po plain (called the ‘‘fontanili line’’), where the phreatic table of alluvial shallow aquifer spontaneously or anthropically reaches the soil surface. These springs provide a variety of ecological benefits such as self-cleansing of water, stable water temperature and unique ecosystems. They are extremely important from an ecological and hydrogeological point of view, as well key indicators for the effects of climate change and anthropic influence on the shallow aquifer which directly supplies their discharge. Unfortunately, fontanili appear to be deteriorating or completely disappearing over time, so it’s important to determine the danger they are facing in order to enable authorities to monitor and manage them properly and observe relevant data that is certainly connected to climate change. Consequently, an assessment of the hydrogeological features of these springs and the shallow aquifer is also important.

This study is focused on a sector of the southern Turin Po Plain, in Piedmont (Italy) with data being collected during the year 2022, a record-breaking year for drought and heat in the area. Fontanili were mapped during the summer and autumn of 2022, revealing a total of 92 springs, most of which were revealed to be inactive and lacking water, with only 26 being active and only in autumn. The spring heads were grouped into 21 systems based on the primary canal that collected their waters. To analyse the features of the shallow aquifer, piezometric and hydrochemical studies were also conducted.

Piezometric level of the shallow aquifer appeared to have decreased in time and didn’t reach the surface. This situation created the conditions for the fontanili’s disappearance. From a hydrochemical point of view, groundwater samples belong to the calcium bicarbonate facies, while surface water samples belong to the calcium sulphide facies. Fontanili samples mostly appeared to have the same characteristics of well samples, confirming the springs are supplied by the shallow aquifer. Hydrochemical data appeared to be consistent with the previous literature with only four samples showing concentrations of nitrate or nitrite unsuitable for human consumption: this is connected to land use and agricultural practices, as these concentrations are higher in wells in the northern sector of the area, where activities are more intense. However, all the samples have excellent quality for agricultural when compared to the Sodium Adsorption Ratio Wilcox diagram.

The study shows that fontanili in the southern Turin Plain faced a critical situation in 2022 due to the decrease in piezometric level caused by climate change, alongside lack of maintenance and agricultural practices that contributed both to the overexploitation of the shallow aquifer and to the pollution of the water.

This study also aims to highlight how important preserving these precious resources is and how observing their evolution in time can help to mark the impact of climate phenomena that are being observed on a global scale.

How to cite: Franco, F. E., Lasagna, M., De Luca, D. A., Cocca, D., Egidio, E., and Minciardi, M. R.: Influence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Fontanili (Lowland Springs) and Shallow Aquifers in the Southern Turin Po Plain (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17879, 2025.

Stable water isotopes are valuable tools to determine the flow pathways, and, when combined with other analyses, can provide insights into the hydrogeology in complex settings.  

This study aims at determining the recharge and flow pathways processes of groundwater in an alpine stream basin, focusing on a spring characterized by exceptionally high discharge.

Montellina Spring is one of the drinkable water springs with the highest discharge in the Turin Province (Piedmont, NW Italy); its discharge varies between 50 and 180 L/s. It feeds the local water supply system and it is therefore necessary to identify and safeguard the recharge area. The spring is located at 380 m above sea level at the base of the Renanchio Stream Basin, on the low alpine Dora Baltea Valley. The peaks forming the watershed are at an altitude of 2000 m a.s.l., approximately. The aquifer feeding the spring consists of an eclogitic bedrock with limited layers of dolomitic marble, fissured due to deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD), and is covered by thick layers of glacial sediments.

Surface water, groundwater and precipitation were sampled at several sites along the Renanchio Stream Basin (altitude of the sites: 380 to 1460 m a. s.l.), in different seasons during three sampling campaigns (autumn 2017, winter 2017-2018 and spring 2018). Chemical analyses of major ions and water stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) were evaluated, showing a bicarbonate alkaline-earth facies. Furthermore, waters referred to Montellina Springs are mostly enriched in major ions and in term of isotopic contents, similars to the Renanchio Stream, latter sampled at altitudes of up to at 1460 m a.s.l.

The similar isotopic content and the higher major ions content (especially Mg++, Ca++ and HCO3- due to the dissolution of bicarbonate minerals) indicate an important aquifer and a significant circulation in the bedrock interested by DSGSD and glacial sediments. Lastly, chemical and isotopic data suggested that the spring’s recharge area is located at elevations above 1500 m a.s.l., that the spring is partly feed by precipitation and inflow from the Renanchio Stream and that the DSGSD and glacial sediments play a fundamental role in the recharge of Montellina Spring.

The present work seeks to better highlight the hydrogeological context of the Renanchio Stream Basin and provide a new perspective on water resource research and safeguard in an alpine environment.

How to cite: Pigozzi, G., Lasagna, M., and De Luca, D. A.: Study of recharging dynamics of a spring in an alpine valley through isotopic and hydrogeochemical approaches: the Montellina Spring case study (NW Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18073, 2025.

Seawater intrusion (SWI) poses a significant threat to groundwater preservation in coastal aquifers. Understanding the mechanisms driving SWI and determining key hydrogeological parameters are essential for developing effective preservation and mitigation strategies. Tidal Methods provide a validated technique for determining these parameters when variations in sea level and aquifer piezometric head are available.

Despite the widespread application of Tidal Methods and the availability of various solutions based on aquifer conceptual models, significant gaps remain. Key challenges include reliably extracting tidal oscillations from raw monitoring signals and determining the optimal duration of data series for analysis.

This study examines the Neretva Valley in southeastern Croatia, a significant agricultural area near the Adriatic Sea, as a case study for the application of Tidal Methods. A monitoring system has been set up to capture the transient dynamics of SWI in situ.

This research expands upon prior studies in the Neretva Valley by examining tidal oscillations during dry and rainy periods—characterized by substantial precipitation and discharge—and investigating the influence of time series duration on the determination of hydrogeological parameters.

Key findings indicate that the diffusivity values of the deep restricted aquifer exhibit considerable variation between dry and rainy periods when determined using same methodology. The duration of the investigated time series strongly impacts the accuracy of hydrogeological parameter determinations. The hydrogeological values acquired during dry periods via Tidal Methods nearly correspond with those determined with geophysical investigation. These findings enhance comprehension of SWI processes and offer significant insights to improve Tidal Method applications in aquifer management.

How to cite: Lovrinovic, I.: Optimizing Tidal Methods for Determination of Hydrogeological Parameters: Lessons from the Neretva Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18714, 2025.

EGU25-18738 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Simulating Bank Filtrate Dynamics in Berlin: Decision Support Under Climate and Water Use Changes 

Dwight Baldwin, Nasrin Haacke, Christoph Sprenger, Daniel Wicke, Bertram Monninkhoff, and Regina Gnirss

Effective decision-making in urban water management requires integrating outputs from specialized models. Berlin’s drinking water supply relies on induced bank filtration and managed aquifer recharge from the Spree and Havel rivers. However, river inflows into Berlin are declining -e.g., in summer 2019, the Spree’s inflow was half that of an average dry summer year- and are expected to decrease further over the next decade due to the ending of coal sump water discharge into the Spree. Long-term impacts from climate change are anticipated to exacerbate this trend. Additionally, an analysis of streamflow data and bank filtrate rate-corrected groundwater extraction has identified regions where maximum monthly extractions from drinking water wells already exceed the lowest monthly river flows in Berlin. This imbalance, combined with increasing water demand driven by population growth, leads to a higher proportion of treated wastewater in Berlin’s streams. As a result, risks to drinking water quality intensify, and the complexity and costs of water and wastewater treatment escalate. Furthermore, higher extraction levels are associated with increased bank filtrate fractions, amplifying system stress and emphasizing the need for sustainable water management practices.

In collaboration with the Belin Waterworks (Berliner Wasserbetriebe), we applied a well-calibrated FEFLOW© model of the Berlin-Friedrichshagen waterworks to simulate bank filtrate rates under various recharge and groundwater extraction scenarios. The model was run under three historical well configurations (2010, 2015, and 2019) and then well pumping rates were adjusted in the same relative configuration under three groundwater recharge scenarios. A review of prior investigations revealed groups of well galleries exhibiting similar changes in bank filtrate fractions in response to extraction levels; our results complement these former investigations.

Bank filtrate behavior across well galleries was found to depend on several factors, including well depth, distance to the riverbanks, the presence of opposing riverbanks, and regional groundwater heads. Relating bank filtrate change groups to site characteristics and bank filtrate fractions in other Berlin develops a city-wide understanding of changes in bank filtrate. Future FEFLOW© modeling scenarios, including commissioning and decommissioning of well galleries, and implementing managed aquifer recharge will be essential to address remaining uncertainties.

Outputs from this modeling effort contribute to regional dynamic water balance modeling for Berlin’s semi-closed water cycle in order to support sustainable water management decision-making amid evolving climatic and regulatory challenges.

How to cite: Baldwin, D., Haacke, N., Sprenger, C., Wicke, D., Monninkhoff, B., and Gnirss, R.: Simulating Bank Filtrate Dynamics in Berlin: Decision Support Under Climate and Water Use Changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18738, 2025.

EGU25-18787 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.3

Assessing Nitrate Concentration and Groundwater Hydrodynamics in Veneto Region : A Multi-Decade Analysis Using Spatial, Stratigraphic, and Isotopic Approaches  

Laura Fabrello, Elysia Lewis, Barbara Lazzaro, Pietro Teatini, and Francesco Morari

Nitrates are naturally occurring molecules in the environment, but their concentrations have become increasingly concerning due to agricultural activities. This is partially due to the widespread use of nitrogen fertilizers and manure, which convert to nitrates, significantly decreasing groundwater quality. This issue prompted the European Union to introduce the “European Nitrate Directive” in 1991, setting a nitrate concentration limit of 50 mg/L in groundwater. Spatial and temporal data on annual nitrate concentrations were collected across the Veneto region by the Regional Environmental Agency over a 20-year period (2003-2023). Understanding groundwater hydrology and retention times is essential to evaluate whether the measures implemented by EU member states are improving water quality. This study focused on the sub-region of Veneto plain to the east of the Brenta river extending from the pre-Alpine foothills to the Venice Lagoon characterized by unconfined aquifers and a multi-aquifer system. For the multi-aquifer system, accurately defining the depth and extent of each layer was crucial to constructing an accurate model to describe the fate of nitrates in groundwater. In the study area, data from more approximately 800 boreholes were analyzed to define the subsoil stratigraphy accurately. However, data discrepancies were occasionally observed, making a detailed analysis and reorganization of the dataset essential to achieve representative results. To further investigare subsurface dynamics, isotope analyses provided insights into water retention times and groundwater flow. Isotopes such as 18O, 3H, 3He/4He, Ne, 14C , 13C and 87Sr/86Sr quantified in the 1970s and 2000s proved particularly valuable in the understanding the hydrodynamics of the subsurface domain of interest.

How to cite: Fabrello, L., Lewis, E., Lazzaro, B., Teatini, P., and Morari, F.: Assessing Nitrate Concentration and Groundwater Hydrodynamics in Veneto Region : A Multi-Decade Analysis Using Spatial, Stratigraphic, and Isotopic Approaches , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18787, 2025.

Groundwater contamination is considered worldwide an emerging challenge due to the industrial and human activities. It has been demonstrated that a cost-effective remediation is increasingly dependent on high-resolution site characterization (HRSC), which is supposed to be necessary prior to the interventions. In this framework, groundwater sampling and monitoring strategy have become key factors in interpreting results and subsequently modelling contamination phenomena. Nowadays, low-flow purging and sampling (LFPS) is a consolidated methodology in groundwater monitoring, consisting of pumping water at low flowrates (in fine-grained soils from 0.1 to 1 L/min)  prior to the sampling, until the stabilization of measured chemical physical parameters has been obtained. This is mainly due to minimize the induced stabilized drawdown in the well and, consequently, the aquifer stress too.

Recent outcomes focused on the great potential of a new low flow sampling method (the high-stress low-flow sampling) and the use of collected water level data to estimate hydraulic conductivity (He et al., 2022; De Filippi et al., 2023). The high-stress low-flow (HSLF) approach is characterized by an initial high pumping rate followed by low-flow and it is particularly effective in systems limited by long aquifer-responding time scales, typically low-yield aquifers. Preventing downward movement of the well casing water is the main goal and groundwater sampling duration can be significantly shortened. The second one, taking advantage of monitoring operations on groundwater quality, allows to provide to the stakeholders a very large amount of quantitative data on the aquifer over time, reducing time and costs for site characterization in case of future contamination. This new quali-quantitative approach can provide much more information and knowledge about the site, reducing time and costs of further activities. In addition to that, as the monitoring continues and new quantitative values are estimated, this approach allows also to track changes in aquifer hydrodynamic properties after the application of remediation techniques due to a possible contaminant release. Modelling the groundwater flow to the intake helps to get some precautions and be prepared to local hydrogeological conditions prior to the field work. In this way, the LFPS procedure could lead to obtain more representative groundwater samples in a shorter time and provide hydrogeological parameters.

How to cite: De Filippi, F. M., He, Y., and Sappa, G.: Low-Flow Sampling: practical guidelines, modelling and new approaches for boosting the representativeness of groundwater samples and aquifer knowledge., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19211, 2025.

EGU25-20099 | Orals | HS8.2.3

Isotopic and Hydrochemical Analysis of Groundwater Salinization in Berlin: Implications for the management of salinity prone well fields 

Christoph Sprenger, Gunnar Lorenzen, Dwight Baldwin, Alexander Sperlich, and Nasrin Haacke

In the North German Basin, highly mineralised saline groundwaters are common below the Lower Oligocene Rupelian clay. The Rupelian Clay separates the Quaternary and Tertiary freshwater aquifer complex from the underlying saline aquifer complex and is of great importance for groundwater management. However, brackish groundwater influenced by deep saline water is found in the freshwater aquifer complex where the Rupelian Clay has been eroded. This is often the case above salt structures and along Pleistocene channels deeply cut into the underlying strata. As a result of this groundwater salinisation, various water utilities in the Berlin-Brandenburg region, including the Berlin water utility (Berliner Wasserbetriebe), were forced to reduce groundwater extraction volumes at certain locations or to abandon drinking water wells.

This study analyses the spatial and temporal variations of environmental isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H, 14C and δ13C) and hydrochemistry (Cl-, Br-, HCO3- and DOC) in combination with a 3D geological model of stratigraphic units in the freshwater aquifer complex focusing on a waterworks with elevated saltwater intrusion risk in Berlin (Germany). Issues on the genesis and temporal dynamics of geogenic groundwater salinisation were addressed in the study.

A graphical method was employed to identify dominant geochemical processes and to produce a qualitative estimate of radiocarbon age using measured 14C and δ 13C and dissolved inorganic carbon (as hydrogen carbonate). The analyses indicate additional carbon input from ancient organic matter, which is more depleted in 13C than recent soil CO2. Radiocarbon dating revealed time scales of thousands to tens of thousands of years, depending on depth and geological conditions. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) and isotopic signatures (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) of hydrological half-years (winter/summer) were calculated using volume-weighted least squares from the local Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) data station. The calculation of the hydrological half-year signatures proved to be particularly useful for the interpretation of regional flow and mixing processes. The half-year signatures allowed differentiation between samples influenced by bank filtrate and natural groundwater recharge. Stable isotopes in deep groundwater (>50 m below surface) samples showed light isotopic signatures indicating cold recharge conditions, e.g. during the Weichselian glacial period. Analysis of Cl/Br and DOC content revealed the geological units in which saltwater migration is dominant and where DOC dissolution occurs along the flow path. Together with isotopic measurements, literature research, numerical modelling and hydrochemical monitoring, an improved understanding of deep groundwater circulation and its implications for groundwater management in the freshwater aquifer complex has been developed. Although the spatial variability of elevated Cl concentrations due to saline upwelling in a well field is high, recommendations for the sustainable operation of saltwater-influenced well galleries were developed.

How to cite: Sprenger, C., Lorenzen, G., Baldwin, D., Sperlich, A., and Haacke, N.: Isotopic and Hydrochemical Analysis of Groundwater Salinization in Berlin: Implications for the management of salinity prone well fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20099, 2025.

Understanding hydrogeological conditions is crucial for selecting and assessing the long-term safety performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal repository. Utilizing environmental isotopes as effective markers for analysing groundwater movement, this study investigates groundwater recharge sources, age, and renewal rates using multiple isotopes in China’s potential HLW repository site, the Beishan area. The results indicated deep bedrock groundwater primarily derives from ancient precipitation infiltration under cold climatic conditions. A noteworthy distinction is that loose sedimentary groundwater exhibits higher tritium content (>10 TU) compared to bedrock groundwater (<3.2 TU). Groundwater within the recharge area, especially within gullies and piedmont slope deposits, is relatively youthful, with an age of less than 30 years and an annual renewal rate exceeding 5 %. In contrast, the shallow groundwater age in the intermountain basins and depressions of the discharge area generally exceeds 50 years, with an annual renewal rate often falling below 0.5 %. At the Beishan underground research laboratory site, deep groundwater at the disposal repository depth displays a corrected 14C age exceeding 8,000 years, indicating an extremely slow movement and alteration rate. As a result, the hydrogeological conditions in the Beishan area are expected to be relatively beneficial for ensuring the safety of HLW repository.

How to cite: Li, J., Zhou, Z., and Liang, X.: Using multiple isotopes to determine groundwater source, age, and renewalrate in the Beishan preselected area for geological disposal of high-levelradioactive waste in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20425, 2025.

EGU25-166 | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Impact of using additional precipitation data from the uppermost region on improving the performance of AI models in predicting groundwater levels 

Mun-Ju Shin, Jeong-Hun Kim, Su-Yeon Kang, Su-Hyeon Moon, Jeong-Wook Kim, Hyuk- Joon Koh, and Soo-Hyoung Moon

Groundwater is an important water resource that is widely used worldwide for agricultural, industrial, and domestic purposes. In the case of Jeju Island, located in southern South Korea, groundwater is an indispensable water resource that accounts for 82% of the total water supply. Therefore, scientific prediction and management of groundwater levels are very important for the sustainable use of groundwater by citizens. This study additionally used precipitation data from the Baekrokdam Climate Change Observatory located on the summit of Jeju Island in artificial intelligence (AI) models to accurately predict one-month-ahead future groundwater levels for the mid-mountainous areas of Jeju Island, where groundwater levels are highly variable. In other words, the AI models compared and analyzed the improvement effect of the monthly groundwater level prediction performance for 1) using precipitation data from two rainfall stations, groundwater withdrawal data from two groundwater sources, and groundwater level data from two monitoring wells in the study area, and 2) adding precipitation data from Baekrokdam Climate Change Observatory. The study subjects are two groundwater level monitoring wells located at 435-471m above mean sea level in the southeast of Jeju Island. The AI models used to predict groundwater levels are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning AI model.

As a result, when the Baekrokdam precipitation data were not used, the two AI models showed excellent groundwater level prediction performance with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.871 or higher. The LSTM model showed relatively higher prediction performance for high and low groundwater levels than the ANN model. This means that the LSTM model adequately incorporates the seasonal effects of wet and dry periods into groundwater level simulations. The more volatile the observed groundwater level, the more difficult it is for the AI models to interpret the characteristics of groundwater level fluctuations, and the lower the performance of predicting future groundwater levels. When additional Baekrokdam precipitation data were used, the two AI models showed improved groundwater level prediction performance by having NSE values of 0.907 or higher. This means that the additional use of precipitation data located in the uppermost region provides more information to help interpret groundwater levels, allowing AI models to better interpret the characteristics of groundwater level fluctuations. In addition, the use of Baekrokdam precipitation data was more helpful in improving groundwater level prediction for the monitoring well, which has highly variable groundwater levels that are difficult to predict, and the ANN model with relatively low groundwater level prediction performance. When additional Baekrokdam precipitation data was used for a specific monitoring well, the groundwater level prediction performance of the ANN model was improved to a level comparable to that of the LSTM model, which is a deep learning AI, even with a relatively simple ANN model structure. This is an example of how important it is to use additional useful data in research using AI models.

How to cite: Shin, M.-J., Kim, J.-H., Kang, S.-Y., Moon, S.-H., Kim, J.-W., Koh, H.-J., and Moon, S.-H.: Impact of using additional precipitation data from the uppermost region on improving the performance of AI models in predicting groundwater levels, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-166, 2025.

EGU25-640 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Comparative Analysis of ANN and SVM for Groundwater Potential Mapping in Karst Terrains of Southwestern Iran 

Saeid Pourmorad, Mostafa Kabolizade, Rui Ferreira, Shahin Mohammadi, and Luca Antonio -Dimuccio

Amid escalating water scarcity and the pressing need for sustainable water management, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, this study emphasises the importance of developing precise and efficient geospatial methods to evaluate groundwater potential in complex karst landscapes. This research focuses on Khuzestan Province in southwestern Iran, employing advanced Machine Learning (ML) techniques—namely, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM)—to map groundwater potential zones. The goal is to enhance resilience and promote sustainable water resource management in the region. A comprehensive array of topographic, geological, hydrographic, edaphic, and meteorological data was collected, processed, and integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) database to establish key conditioning factors for predictive modelling. After conducting a spatial multicollinearity analysis, the selected input variables included elevation, slope, aspect, multiple topographic indices, relief energy, heat load index, drainage density, lithostratigraphic units, fracture density, land use/cover, NDVI, and precipitation. Hydrogeological data, such as water-table depth and spring locations, obtained from official records, were also integrated to assess the performance of modelling outputs. Two predictive models—using ANN and SVM—were developed to generate groundwater potential maps for the study area. Both models demonstrated high predictive accuracy, highlighting unique strengths in capturing the complex spatial patterns of karst environments. This methodological approach shows promise as a reliable, globally applicable framework for groundwater potential mapping in similar karst regions. By offering valuable insights for hydrogeologists and policymakers, this approach supports enhanced groundwater exploration strategies and fosters sustainable water management in water scarcity regions.

How to cite: Pourmorad, S., Kabolizade, M., Ferreira, R., Mohammadi, S., and Antonio -Dimuccio, L.: Comparative Analysis of ANN and SVM for Groundwater Potential Mapping in Karst Terrains of Southwestern Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-640, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-640, 2025.

EGU25-803 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Aquifer Stress Assessment in Hardrock Regions of the Chotanagpur Plateau Using Integrated SWAT and Deep Learning Models 

Amit Bera, Litan Dutta, Rajwardhan Kumar, and Sanjit Kumar Pal

Groundwater resources in hard-rock terrains are particularly susceptible to stress due to their intricate geological formations and limited recharge capacity. This study presents a novel methodology for assessing aquifer stress within the Barakar River Basin of the Chotanagpur Plateau, leveraging the integration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and advanced deep learning models. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted using 20 hydrogeological and socio-economic parameters, including precipitation, slope, land use, and aquifer lithology. Deep learning techniques, notably Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), were utilised to classify aquifer stress zones into four categories: Low Stress, Moderate Stress, Semi-Critical, and Critical. The CNN model demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 94% and effectively capturing aquifer conditions' spatial and temporal dynamics. Field validation via Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) surveys substantiated the reliability of the model's predictions. Findings indicate that approximately 34% of the basin experiences moderate to critical stress levels, underscoring the urgency for targeted management strategies. This integrated approach offers a scalable and robust framework for sustainable groundwater management in hard-rock terrains, with significant implications for mitigating global water scarcity.

How to cite: Bera, A., Dutta, L., Kumar, R., and Pal, S. K.: Aquifer Stress Assessment in Hardrock Regions of the Chotanagpur Plateau Using Integrated SWAT and Deep Learning Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-803, 2025.

EGU25-1501 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Prediction of Groundwater Level Using Hybrid SVM-FFA Approach 

Chinmayee Biswakalyani, Sandeep Samantaray, and Deba P Satapathy

Groundwater which is the most valuable resource available on the Earth`s surface and is used for drinking, irrigation, livestock, etc is depleting day by day. Groundwater level prediction faces complex challenges to sustainably manage this vital resource. Predicting groundwater level is crucial for water resource management. Here this study explores the use of some hybrid machine learning models such as SVM-FFA, SVM-PSO and compared with the stand alone SVM approach. Then introducing an innovative approach for predicting groundwater level with improved accuracy and to enhance the performance of the model and face the challenges developed during the process. This work investigates hybrid machine learning techniques to improve the accuracy of groundwater levels predictions, which are constrained in conventional hydrological models. The study uses long time series of monthly data from 2008-2024 taking precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and relative humidity as input features from Balipatana block of Khordha district of Odisha, India. In this analysis, performance metrices like Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Willmott Index (WI) were employed. It is found that the value of RMSE, R2, MAE, WI are 8.5832, 95.6756, 10.9438, 94.2981; 13.2287, 93.0073, 15.9084, 91.6327; 21.9627, 88.2165, 24.1689, 86.8491 in case of SVM-FFA, SVM-PSO and SVM respectively. The results demonstrates that the SVM-FFA models performs much better than the SVM-PSO and standalone methos in improving their accuracy and their robustness. With high prediction exactness and strategic versatility, the proposed model proved a powerful selection for forecasting groundwater levels.

How to cite: Biswakalyani, C., Samantaray, S., and Satapathy, D. P.: Prediction of Groundwater Level Using Hybrid SVM-FFA Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1501, 2025.

One major challenge in reliable groundwater level forecasting is to correctly account for the amount and rate of precipitation percolating through the unsaturated zone prior to reaching the aquifer. Especially under a changing climate already impacting weather and climate extremes globally, increased frequency of heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought periods will have significant impact on recharge patterns through soil hydraulic properties and unsaturated zone dynamics. However, as soon as groundwater predictions concern long-term environmental changes, extrapolations beyond the short-term often lack to fully account for increased frequency of extreme events under climate change. Consequently, estimates and forecasts overlook the actual impacts of weather extremes, particularly imprinting themselves in changes in the hydraulic connection between groundwater and soil surface.

We used weekly groundwater level data (1990 – 2024) from over a hundred measuring wells, well distributed over the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, to train a deep neural network, that is able to predict groundwater level development under the impacts of climate change. To account for the soil hydraulic properties, we included soil moisture from different depths as a proxy for the amount and timing of water percolating through the vadose zone.

We show that purely climatic inputs, such as air temperature and precipitation are not sufficient to explain regional groundwater level development, as suggested by previous studies. Instead, including soil moisture turns out be the factor with the highest impact (feature importance) on the entire regional model, increasing the explained variance for most sites, while being able to reduce the model error constantly (RSME).  Our findings demonstrate that future predictions of groundwater level can be enhanced by integrating the effects of climate on soil moisture into predictive models.

How to cite: Eckert, M.-C. and Rudolph, A.: The Impact of Soil Moisture on Groundwater Level Forecasting Using Deep Neural Networks: Evidence from Brandenburg, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2148, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2148, 2025.


Meat production is a major contributor to global environmental degradation, including groundwater nitrate contamination driven by intensive fertilizer use and manure production. This study explores the environmental implications of substituting conventional meat products (beef, poultry, and pork) with alternative protein sources—plant-based, insect-based, and cultured meat—using the U.S. meat market as a baseline. Employing an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model, we quantify the risk of groundwater nitrate exceedance and compare resource requirements such as fertilizer, water, and land use for conventional and alternative proteins.

Results indicate that a 10% substitution of meat protein with alternatives reduces fertilizer use by 3.4%, manure production by 10.7%, and water usage by 4.5%, leading to a 20% reduction in groundwater nitrate exceedance risk. Plant-based alternatives show the lowest environmental impact, while insect-based options demonstrate high feedstock efficiency. Cultured meat, despite its potential, currently exhibits higher resource demands due to production constraints. The study further highlights regional variations in substitution effects, driven by agricultural practices and climatic factors.

These findings underscore the environmental benefits of transitioning to sustainable protein sources, providing actionable insights for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to water quality, food security, and climate resilience. This shift not only reduces environmental risks but also ensures the sustainable management of groundwater resources.

How to cite: Guo, Z. and Zhan, Y.: Shifting Protein Sources to Reduce Groundwater Nitrate Contamination: Insights from the U.S. Meat Market, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2241, 2025.

EGU25-2936 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Mapping potential groundwater-dependent ecosystems in Central Mexico: Expert knowledge and machine learning approaches 

Camila Salgado Albiter, Selene Olea Olea, Eric Morales Casique, Nelly Lucero Ramírez-Serrato, and Priscila Medina Ortega

Groundwater sustainability requires meeting current and future human needs while maintaining groundwater discharge and interactions with Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems (GDE). The first step in including GDEs in water management policies is identifying their location and extent in the landscape. Approaches to mapping GDE include those based on expert knowledge and machine learning methods.  

Meanwhile, Mexico is one of the countries currently facing major groundwater challenges due to intensive groundwater abstraction, land use change, and climate change, putting to risk the structure and function of GDEs. Therefore, GDE mapping is needed in Mexico to facilitate their inclusion in water management.

For this purpose, this study evaluated the performance of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Logistic Regression (LR) method to map GDEs using topographic, hydrogeological, structural, and vegetation variables obtained from remote sensing products and geospatial data in a study area located in Central Mexico. The two methods were compared by the AUC and ROC curve based on ground-truth data obtained from springs and groundwater-dependent wetland inventories.

The results show insights into each method's predictive power in identifying areas associated with GDEs, with AHP emphasizing the prioritization of criteria based on expert knowledge and LR revealing statistical relationships within the dataset.

The use of different explanatory variables and methods enables the development of distinct frameworks for GDE mapping, each with distinct strengths. Nevertheless, this study shows different approaches that can be successfully applied by decision-makers to map GDEs at local and regional scales and ease their inclusion into water management policies.

How to cite: Salgado Albiter, C., Olea Olea, S., Morales Casique, E., Ramírez-Serrato, N. L., and Medina Ortega, P.: Mapping potential groundwater-dependent ecosystems in Central Mexico: Expert knowledge and machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2936, 2025.

EGU25-3175 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Impact of groundwater extraction on saltwater movement in the lower Spree catchment under climate change and water scarcity 

Abdelrahman Ahmed Ali Abdelrahman, Martin Sauter, and Irina Engelhardt

This study investigates the effects of groundwater extraction on saltwater movement in Berlin/Brandenburg's lower Spree catchment, a critical freshwater resource increasingly impacted by climate change and water scarcity. A high-resolution groundwater flow model was developed to simulate transient flow and saltwater dynamics. The model incorporates recharge data (1979–2019), pumping records (1994–2021), and a detailed geological framework derived from borehole data and cross-sections. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to capture spatial heterogeneity, with the model discretized into ≈ 3.5 million active flow cells using a finite-difference approach with 100 m horizontal, 5 m vertical, and monthly temporal resolutions. The initial conditions determined through a spin-up period. Model calibration, supported by PEST, ensured robust performance in both steady-state and transient conditions.

 

Results reveal significant interactions between freshwater and saline zones, with prolonged extraction driving saltwater upconing. Scenario analyses highlight the sensitivity of saltwater movement to climate change, projecting accelerated saltwater intrusion under intensified pumping and reduced recharge conditions.

 

These findings underscore the need for adaptive groundwater management strategies, such as optimized pumping schedules and integrated management practices, and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR)to mitigate saltwater intrusion and ensure sustainable freshwater availability under changing climatic and resource pressures.

How to cite: Abdelrahman, A. A. A., Sauter, M., and Engelhardt, I.: Impact of groundwater extraction on saltwater movement in the lower Spree catchment under climate change and water scarcity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3175, 2025.

EGU25-4204 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Improving the Regionalization of Groundwater Head Dynamics with static environmental features 

Ezra Haaf and Yifan Zhang

This study aims to improve the regionalization of groundwater head dynamics using static environmental features. Recent machine- and deep learning studies have explored the use of these features for spatial and temporal imputation (Haaf et al., 2023) or improvement of global models (e.g., Chidepudi et al. (2024); Heudorfer et al. (2024); Nolte et al. (2024)). While physiographic features, including geology, land cover, anthropogenic factors, and topography, have been identified as important predictors of groundwater dynamics at regional and watershed scales (Haaf et al., 2020; Haaf et al., 2023; Rinderer et al., 2017; Zhao et al., 2023), there is still a lack of understanding on how to leverage static features to achieve significant model improvement for groundwater time series regionalization (e.g., Heudorfer et al., 2024; Nolte et al., 2024).

In this study, we use a data-driven, static feature-based approach to regionalize groundwater head duration curves and reconstruct them based on similar donor sites (Haaf et al., 2023). We evaluate the similarity of static features compared to the geographical proximity of donor sites. The data set consists of more than 150 ten-year, daily groundwater head time series in the upper Danube catchment and more than 60 static features at each site.

Our findings suggest that geographical proximity, related to both physiographic and climatic similarity, is the best default approach for selecting donor sites for regionalization. However, in specific cases where the nearest donor sites were located in different hydrogeological regimes, static features significantly improve regionalization. The study demonstrates the potential for improving the regionalization of groundwater dynamics using spatial features in diverse hydrogeological settings. Further research on larger and more diverse data sets is warranted to allow for robust feature selection strategies.

 

References

Chidepudi, S. K. R., Massei, N., Jardani, A., Dieppois, B., Henriot, A., & Fournier, M. (2024). Training deep learning models with a multi-station approach and static aquifer attributes for groundwater level simulation: what’s the best way to leverage regionalised information? EGUsphere, 2024, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-794
Haaf, E., Giese, M., Heudorfer, B., Stahl, K., & Barthel, R. (2020). Physiographic and Climatic Controls on Regional Groundwater Dynamics. Water Resources Research, 56(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr026545
Haaf, E., Giese, M., Reimann, T., & Barthel, R. (2023). Data‐Driven Estimation of Groundwater Level Time‐Series at Unmonitored Sites Using Comparative Regional Analysis. Water Resources Research, 59(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022wr033470
Heudorfer, B., Liesch, T., & Broda, S. (2024). On the challenges of global entity-aware deep learning models for groundwater level prediction. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28(3), 525-543. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-525-2024
Nolte, A., Haaf, E., Heudorfer, B., Bender, S., & Hartmann, J. (2024). Disentangling coastal groundwater level dynamics in a global dataset. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28(5), 1215-1249. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1215-2024
Rinderer, M., McGlynn, B. L., & van Meerveld, H. J. (2017). Groundwater similarity across a watershed derived from time-warped and flow-corrected time series. Water Resources Research, 53(5), 3921-3940. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019856
Zhao, F.-H., Huang, J., & Zhu, A. X. (2023). Spatial prediction of groundwater level change based on the Third Law of Geography. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 37(10), 2129-2149. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2023.2248215

How to cite: Haaf, E. and Zhang, Y.: Improving the Regionalization of Groundwater Head Dynamics with static environmental features, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4204, 2025.

EGU25-4425 | Orals | HS8.2.4

Predicting saturated hydraulic conductivity from particle size distributions using machine learning 

Alraune Zech, Valerie de Rijk, Jelle Buma, and Hans Veldkamp

Estimating saturated hydraulic conductivity Kf from particle size distributions (PSD) is very common with empirical formulas, while the use of machine learning for that purpose is not yet widely established. We evaluate the predictive power of six machine learning algorithms, including tree-based, regression-based and network-based methods in estimating Kf from the PSD solely. We use a dataset of 4600 samples from the shallow Dutch subsurface for training and testing. The extensive dataset provides not only PSD, but also measured conductivities from permeameter tests. Besides training and testing on the entire data set, we apply the six algorithms to data subsets for the soil types sand, silt and clay. We further test different feature/target-variable combinations such as reducing the input to PSD-derived characteristic grain diameters d10 , d50 and d60 or estimating porosity from PSD. We test feature importance and compare results to Kf estimates from a selection of empirical formulas. We find that all algorithm can estimate Kf from PSD at high accuracy (up to R2/NSE of 0.89 for testing data and 0.98 for the entire data set) and outperform empirical formulas. Particularly, tree-based algorithms are well suited and robust. Reducing information in the feature variables to grain diameters works well for predicting Kf of sandy samples, but is less robust for silt and clay rich samples. d10 also shows to be the most influential feature here. An interesting, but not surprising outcome is that PSD is not a suitable predictor for porosity. Overall, our results confirm that machine learning algorithms are a powerful tool for determining Kf from PSD. This is promising for applications to e.g. deep-drilling data sets or low-effort and robust Kf -estimation of single samples.

How to cite: Zech, A., de Rijk, V., Buma, J., and Veldkamp, H.: Predicting saturated hydraulic conductivity from particle size distributions using machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4425, 2025.

EGU25-5170 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Hydrological uncertainty in stochastic heterogeneous soil slope 

Phuong Thanh Vu, Chih-Yu Kuo, Chuen-Fa Ni, I-Hsien Lee, Yunung Lin, and Thi Kim Tu Tran

Understanding the impact of hydrological uncertainty on soil slope stability is crucial for assessing slope failure risks in heterogeneous terrains. This study aims to investigate how heterogeneity in hydraulic properties influences slope stability and groundwater dynamics.

A total of 3,500 realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields were generated, with heterogeneities inclined at a 20-degree dip to mimic realistic subsurface conditions. To generate stochastic hydraulic conductivity fields, we employed a Gaussian random field model with specified mean, variance, and spatial correlation lengths. These fields were transformed into log-normal distributions to represent the natural variability of hydraulic conductivity in soils. Similarly, saturated water content was also generated as a random field to account for its spatial variability and its correlation with hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity. Using FEMWATER, we simulated unsaturated and saturated flow processes for each realization, capturing the spatial and temporal variability of water movement within the slope. Uncertainty analysis was then performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the flow and groundwater levels, including variance, covariance, and cross-variance.

The results highlight the variability in groundwater flow patterns and the envelope of groundwater levels under stochastic conditions. The uncertainty analysis revealed significant influences of hydraulic conductivity on flow behavior, characterized by variance, covariance, and cross-variance. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic behavior of hydrological processes in heterogeneous slopes and contribute to a more robust framework for predicting slope stability under uncertain hydrological conditions.

How to cite: Vu, P. T., Kuo, C.-Y., Ni, C.-F., Lee, I.-H., Lin, Y., and Tran, T. K. T.: Hydrological uncertainty in stochastic heterogeneous soil slope, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5170, 2025.

The Yellow River basin (YRB) is the second-largest river basin in China , flowing through arid regions. The development and utilization of water resources, including irrigation, urban water supply, and industrial use, face significant challenges (Lin et al., 2019;Qu et al., 2020). Although groundwater resources are abundant, they are constrained by excessive extraction and declining water tables (Lin et al., 2020), posing substantial challenges for water resource management, especially as the global water scarcity issue becomes increasingly prominent. It is challenging to estimate groundwater level at a regional or catchment scale due to its natural heterogeneity.

Here, we use a large sample of groundwater observations, together with datasets from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiments (GRACE), to build a machine learning approach — random forest— for predicting regional groundwater levels in the Yellow River Basin of China.

We demonstrated the robustness of this model, with an R² of 0.95 at calibration mode and R² of 0.91±0.009 at a 10-fold cross-validation mode with 100 repetitions. Compared to the spatial predictability, its temporal predictability is less accurate, with R² value of 0.72 for a test period of April-May in 2023. The spatial distribution maps of the groundwater levels in Yellow River Basin showed strong seasonal declines in fall and winter, with severe decreases concentrated in the middle and lower reaches. Overall, this paper shows that it is promising to estimate regional groundwater levels based on machine learning with a large sample of groundwater observations, providing a robust and comprehensive data foundation for groundwater analysis.

References

Lin, M.,  Biswas, A., & Bennett, E. M. (2019), Spatio-temporal dynamics of groundwater storage changes in the yellow river basin. Journal of Environmental Management, 235, 84-95.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.016.

Lin, M.,  Biswas, A., & Bennett, E. M. (2020), Socio-ecological determinants on spatio-temporal changes of groundwater in the yellow river basin, china. Science of The Total Environment, 731, 138725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138725.

Qu, S.,  Wang, L.,  Lin, A.,  Yu, D.,  Yuan, M., & Li, C. a. (2020), Distinguishing the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic factors on vegetation dynamics in the yangtze river basin, china. Ecological Indicators, 108, 105724. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105724.

Keywords:Random forest model; Groundwater level depth; GLDAS; GRACE

How to cite: Cao, Y. and Zhang, Y.: Estimating regional groundwater level by fusing satellite, model and large-sample observations inputs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5408, 2025.

A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is developed to predict groundwater level (GL) fluctuations based on precipitation time-series data, integrating both physics-based principles and data-driven learning to improve the prediction accuracy and robustness. The proposed PINN model embeds the governing equations of groundwater flow dynamics within a gated recurrent unit (GRU), ensuring that predictions adhere to physical laws while leveraging historical data patterns. The model’s performance is evaluated against two benchmark models: (i) a purely physics-based linear reservoir model and (ii) a data-driven GRU model. The results demonstrate that the PINN model outperforms both benchmarks, particularly under reduced time resolution, maintaining stable accuracy through its integration of physics-based information. Quantitative metrics, including the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC), confirm the superior predictive capability of the PINN model, indicating its resilience to data limitations and noise in real-world monitoring data. As such, this study underscores the advantages of incorporating physics information into neural networks, and demonstrates that the PINN approach provides robust predictions even with limited data, which makes it ideal for complex aquifer systems and endows it with significant potential for supporting real-world groundwater management.

How to cite: Jeong, J. and Jeong, J.: Development of Physics-informed Recurrent Neural Network to Predict Actual Groundwater Level Fluctuation according to Precipitation Time-series Event, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5434, 2025.

EGU25-5562 | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Data-driven groundwater level prediction in agricultural areas using temporal convolutional networks 

Sheng-Wei Wang, Yen-Yu Chen, and Wunci Chen

Groundwater plays a critical role in the global water cycle, serving as a primary source of freshwater for agriculture, industry, and domestic use.However, overexploitation of groundwater resources, coupled with the impacts of climate variability, has led to severe consequences. In agriculturally intensive regions, groundwater pumping for irrigation constitutes a significant portion of total water use. Variations in pumping practices, crop types, and irrigation methods result in pronounced spatial and temporal differences in groundwater extraction. Inefficient irrigation practices further exacerbate water losses, underscoring the need for data-driven approaches to enhance water-use efficiency. Machine learning techniques have emerged as transformative tools for groundwater level prediction. Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), a deep learning model, are particularly well-suited for this purpose due to their ability to capture long-range temporal dependencies in time-series data with superior computational efficiency. This approach not only ensures improved computational performance and scalability but also makes TCN more resilient to missing or proxy data, such as using power consumption as a substitute for direct pumping volume measurements, enhancing its real-world applicability. In this study, monthly groundwater level records from 2007 to 2023 from nine monitoring wells in a high-density agricultural area were collected, along with precipitation, and pumping data. In the absence of direct pumping volume measurements, power consumption data from pumping wells were utilized as a proxy for groundwater discharge. According to the registered purposes of these wells, they were classified into 14 groundwater usage categories, including irrigation for different crops, aquaculture, and livestock. The TCN model demonstrated robust predictive performance, with RMSE, MAE, and R² values ranging from 0.938–2.966 m, 0.797–2.477 m, and 0.66–0.891, respectively, during training, and 0.523–2.697 m, 0.426–2.288 m, and 0.821–0.842, respectively, during testing. Results from SHAP analysis revealed that precipitation and groundwater pumping for rice irrigation were the dominant factors influencing groundwater level variation. These findings emphasize strong generalization capability, computational efficiency, and ability to learn complex temporal relationships of TCN model. The interpretability and adaptability of TCN model make it an invaluable tool for improving agricultural water management practices, addressing the challenges of groundwater sustainability and climate variability. Furthermore, by incorporating downscaled meteorological forecasts from IPCC AR6 into this developed model, coupled with projected power consumption patterns of pumping wells, the model can efficiently predict future groundwater level variations. This approach has significant implications for policy-making related to groundwater and surface water resource management, promoting sustainable agricultural development and resource conservation.

How to cite: Wang, S.-W., Chen, Y.-Y., and Chen, W.: Data-driven groundwater level prediction in agricultural areas using temporal convolutional networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5562, 2025.

EGU25-5774 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Surrogate model supported optimization of a multitracer push-pull test in Horonobe aquifer (Japan) under parametric uncertainty 

Elena Petrova, Philipp Selzer, Stefan Kranz, Sarah Zeilfelder, Klaus H. Hebig, Isao Machida, Atsunao Marui, Guido Blöcher, and Traugott Scheytt

Single-well push-pull tracer tests are broadly employed to estimate effective parameters for solute and heat transport in aquifers. Tracer recovery curves obtained from these tests serve as inputs for solving an inverse problem to infer effective transport parameters such as porosity, thermal and solute longitudinal dispersivities, and retardation factors. However, the inherent non-uniqueness of the inverse calibration problem and associated uncertainties in field measurements create a bottleneck for multiparametric calibration. To address these challenges, we employed a computationally efficient optimization framework based on surrogate modeling via Gaussian process regression (GPR) to approximate the objective function based on six effective transport parameters to be calibrated simultaneously, which yields plausible parameter combinations. For training and model evaluation, we implemented a 1D finite-difference (FD) representation of the advection-dispersion equation for sorbing tracers featuring an adaptive explicit time stepping scheme adhering to numerical stability criteria while minimizing numerical diffusion, where an analytical radial flow field serves as input based on well hydraulic properties. The FD model includes the measured input time series of temperature and concentration as transient boundary conditions, as well as well-bore storage to accurately model push-pull test conditions. We applied this framework to push-pull tests conducted in a sandy aquifer in Horonobe (Hokkaido, Japan) using heat and three solute tracers: uranine, lithium, and iodide. The confidence intervals for field measurements were included by using repeated under identical conditions tests. The surrogate model facilitates parameter optimization by balancing the exploration of high-uncertainty regions with the exploitation of high-probability regions through a weighted probability function. The posterior parameter distribution reveals reduced uncertainty intervals for porosity and both solute and thermal dispersivities while indicating low sensitivity for the solute retardation factor. The results demonstrate the necessity of high-precision measurements for concentration and highlight the value of utilizing multiple tracers to enhance calibration accuracy under parametric and measurement uncertainty. The developed framework highlights the benefit of using machine learning techniques combined with physics-based models to efficiently address stochastic parameter optimization under parametric uncertainty. The developed framework is a useful tool that enables time-efficient stochastic evaluation of computationally expensive models and optimization of push-pull tests.

How to cite: Petrova, E., Selzer, P., Kranz, S., Zeilfelder, S., Hebig, K. H., Machida, I., Marui, A., Blöcher, G., and Scheytt, T.: Surrogate model supported optimization of a multitracer push-pull test in Horonobe aquifer (Japan) under parametric uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5774, 2025.

EGU25-6502 | Orals | HS8.2.4

Remote Sensing-Driven Prediction of Groundwater Nitrate Risk: Insights from Machine Learning Applications in Taiwan 

Yu-Chun Hsu, Kai-Yun Li, Joel Podgorski, and Michael Berg

Groundwater nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a pressing issue linked to agricultural practices, urbanization, and industrial activities. This study focuses on Taiwan’s groundwater nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) contamination by integrating satellite remote sensing, groundwater monitoring, and various environmental factors using GIS. Data from 451 monitoring stations, sampled quarterly from 2020 to 2024, reveal that NO3-N concentrations generally range between 1–10 mg/L, while approximately 2% exceed Taiwan’s Drinking Water Quality Standards of 10 mg/L for NO3-N (equivalent to 44.3 mg/L NO3-). In this study, machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron, and Support Vector Classifier, were employed to predict NO3-N contamination risk at three ranges of concentrations (<1, 1–10, >10 mg/L) using different feature combinations: (1) all features, (2) selective environmental factors, and (3) vegetation indices (VIs) alone. RF demonstrated the highest overall accuracy across all combinations, achieving 87% in Feature Combination I. For Feature Combination III, which only used VIs derived from remote sensing, RF achieved an OA of 68%, highlighting its potential for practical and efficient application without ground-based survey data. Key findings highlight the pivotal role of environmental variables, including VIs derived from Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery, terrain parameters from digital elevation models, and meteorological data in mapping contamination hotspots. Future work should integrate higher-resolution satellite imagery and more advanced parameters to improve model performance and decision-making accuracy.

How to cite: Hsu, Y.-C., Li, K.-Y., Podgorski, J., and Berg, M.: Remote Sensing-Driven Prediction of Groundwater Nitrate Risk: Insights from Machine Learning Applications in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6502, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6502, 2025.

EGU25-6734 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Hydrological Modeling of a Fractured Volcanic Aquifer to Analyze Interactions Between Anthropogenic Water Resource Usage and the Natural System 

Marco Silipigni, Cristina Di Salvo, Elisabetta Preziosi, Iolanda Borzì, and Brunella Bonaccorso

The Alcantara River basin, located in Sicily (Italy), encompasses an area of 606 km², including the northern slopes of Mount Etna, Europe's highest active volcano (3357 m a.s.l.). The river stretches for 55 km, originating from the Nebrodi Mountains at 1400 m a.s.l. and discharging into the Ionian Sea approximately 5.5 km south of Taormina (Messina). Groundwater significantly sustains the river’s flow. Irrigation and drinking water wells extract an average of 0.23 m³/s, while a drainage gallery collects water from three springs, supplying the Alcantara aqueduct with an average flow rate of 0.48 m³/s, as measured from January 2009 to December 2022.
To better understand the aquifer-river interactions and assess the impacts of groundwater extractions, the aquifer system was modeled using MODFLOW 6, a finite-difference numerical code developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The study covered 14 years (2009–2022), leveraging monthly groundwater withdrawal records provided by the aqueduct operator. Hydraulic conductivity was calibrated using PEST, a software tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Two scenarios were considered: (1) the current condition, including all known groundwater extractions, and (2) a hypothetical scenario without extractions. The model was validated by comparing observed and simulated discharge trends from the drainage gallery.
Simulation results revealed that groundwater extractions reduce natural spring discharge to the river by an average of 22%. This reduction shows significant seasonal variability, with the most pronounced impacts in spring and less severe effects in winter. Interestingly, despite this reduction, the midstream section of the river did not experience zero discharge, even during the driest periods (e.g., the summers of 2020 and 2021). This discrepancy suggests the influence of additional unaccounted factors, such as unauthorized or unrecorded water withdrawals, or potential hydrogeological changes induced by seismic activity.
These findings emphasize the need for systematic monitoring of groundwater and surface water resources. Enhanced monitoring would provide a deeper understanding of aquifer-river interactions, identify drivers of hydrological regime alterations, and inform strategies to optimize groundwater use and mitigate its impacts on river systems. Such efforts are essential for protecting the natural environment and ensuring the long-term availability of water resources.

How to cite: Silipigni, M., Di Salvo, C., Preziosi, E., Borzì, I., and Bonaccorso, B.: Hydrological Modeling of a Fractured Volcanic Aquifer to Analyze Interactions Between Anthropogenic Water Resource Usage and the Natural System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6734, 2025.

EGU25-6890 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

SHOWER: A tool for groundwater drought management  

Doris E Wendt, Gemma Coxon, Saskia Salwey, and Francesca Pianosi

Preparing for drought conditions is complicated by the episodic nature of droughts and by our limited understanding of water systems’ response to extreme events. In this, models are useful tools to simulate a range of plausible to low likelihood drought conditions. Water managers may use these simulations to make plans and consider consequences for both normal and extreme drought events. However, critical in this is the representation of water system resilience to drought conditions and simulated management decisions to in/decrease drought resilience. Decision-making in groundwater management could herein benefit from a robust modelling approach that considers the complexity and uncertainty in water availability, dynamic impact of management and modelling setups available.

In this study, we have converted a lumped conceptual socio-hydrological model to an operational tool to support groundwater management in Great Britain by applying a response-based and a data-based model evaluation.  In the response-based evaluation, we first examined the model consistency with our understanding of the system functioning, and the influence of modelled management scenarios on model predictions. In the data-based evaluation, we tested the accuracy of heavily influenced discharge and groundwater level predictions in three catchments representative of typical hydrogeological conditions and water management practices in Great Britain.

Results show consistent simulations across catchments and identified pointers for influential model parameters in drought conditions. Modelled water management interventions have varying influence on simulated model output. Most effective drought management scenarios have (elements of) integrated water storage use, which minimises shortages in water demand. The data-based analysis shows that calibration can be focused on either low flows or groundwater storage, with reasonable results for both model outputs. We provide a source-specific and ‘best overall’ calibration approach that capture groundwater levels and low flows, which also indicates how model parameters (dis)agree with open-source data and our model perception of the modelled water system.

How to cite: Wendt, D. E., Coxon, G., Salwey, S., and Pianosi, F.: SHOWER: A tool for groundwater drought management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6890, 2025.

EGU25-7006 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Robust managed aquifer recharge (MAR) design aided by graph neural networks 

Wensi Guo, Meilian Li, Haoling Chen, and Xiaogang He

Rapid population growth and agriculture development have led to unsustainable exploitation of groundwater, a trend likely to be exacerbated by future climate change. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) emerges as a cost-effective strategy for replenishing depleted aquifers, thereby supporting long-term groundwater sustainability. However, the highly heterogeneous nature of groundwater processes necessitates fine spatial and temporal resolution models for designing and evaluating MAR. The high computational burden of physics-based model simulations constrains existing MAR studies to limited scenarios, missing opportunities to evaluate MAR potential across the full range of uncertainties from climate change, policy shifts, and infrastructure development. Recent advances in artificial intelligence offer a promising solution to the trade-off between high spatial-temporal precision and computational efficiency through surrogate models. In this study, we leverage recent advances in attention-based Graph Neural Networks (aGNN) to develop a surrogate model for MAR (GNN-MAR), which allows us to capture multi-scale network structures across river systems, groundwater flow, and MAR infrastructure. Trained on a high-resolution physics-based integrated surface water and groundwater model, GNN-MAR is tailored for two MAR approaches, i.e., in-channel recharge and agriculture MAR (Ag-MAR). We apply GNN-MAR to the Baoding Plain in the North China Plain, one of the world’s most severely groundwater depleted regions. The search for optimal MAR schemes is conducted within large ensembles generated under the XLRM (eXogenous uncertainties, policy Levers, Relationships, Measures) framework, which encompasses climate change scenarios, groundwater pumping policies (X), MAR schemes (L), GNN-MAR (R), and groundwater sustainability targets (M). The framework enables identification of MAR schemes robust to deep uncertainties. Our study provides valuable insights for the development of high-fidelity surrogate models for integrated surface-groundwater systems and demonstrate the potential of AI-based surrogate model for robust decision-making in groundwater recharge management.

How to cite: Guo, W., Li, M., Chen, H., and He, X.: Robust managed aquifer recharge (MAR) design aided by graph neural networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7006, 2025.

EGU25-7285 | Orals | HS8.2.4

Data-driven Modeling of Transboundary Aquifers in Conflict Zones: Challenges and Solutions from the GRANDE-U International Collaboration 

Ilya Zaslavsky, Vytautas Samalavičius, Tatiana Solovey, Agnieszka Brzezińska, Rafał Janica, Justyna Śliwińska-Bronowicz, Anna Stradczuk, Jānis Bikše, Gintaras Žaržojus, and Assemzhan Kunsakova

Groundwater assessment is critical for addressing global and regional water security challenges, particularly in transboundary areas and conflict zones such as Ukraine. These regions often experience shifting water balance patterns due to excessive groundwater abstraction, damage to water infrastructure, and large-scale population displacement to safer border areas. Modeling transboundary groundwater storage and flows in such contexts is challenging due to uneven data availability across borders, inconsistent hydrogeological descriptions, restricted fieldwork, and limited local capacity to maintain data collection infrastructure. Effective water management in these areas requires pooling global expertise and resources, increasingly leveraging satellite observations, and fostering close collaboration among partner countries engaged in transboundary aquifer modeling.

The Groundwater Resilience Assessment through Integrated Data Exploration for Ukraine (GRANDE-U) project addresses these challenges through an organizational and technological framework uniting researchers from six countries—the U.S., Ukraine, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. The project integrates physics-based and machine learning models for transboundary aquifers with downscaled satellite remote sensing data. Building on the foundations of the NSF-funded AccelNet Transboundary Groundwater Resilience project and the European EU-WATERRES project, GRANDE-U employs the following methodology:

-             Developing a spatial database of water-related indicators for transboundary areas, including geology, water resources, land cover, monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture, and other characteristics at observation points and a 0.1"-0.25" grids covering the aquifer;

-             Creating algorithms to downscale GRACE/GRACE-FO-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) data to resolutions of 0.25" and finer for specific regions with the best available hydrogeologic data sufficient for GRACE/GRACE-FO adjustment; and

-             Developing machine learning models to describe GWS dynamics, utilizing as predictors the monthly averages organized in the spatial database.

Initial results highlight the application of various machine learning models for accurate TWS-GRACE prediction, emphasizing hyperparameter tuning and encoding spatial dependencies. As the database and algorithms evolve, these models aim to improve transboundary groundwater monitoring and management.

An additional novel component of the GRANDE-U collaboration involves analyzing global expertise in transboundary groundwater research. Using a co-authorship network analysis, the project identifies key contributors, emerging topics, knowledge gaps, and collaboration patterns across hydrogeological subdomains and related disciplines. The analysis tracks the formation and evolution of expertise clusters and explores subsets of the network based on environmental, socio-economic, and data-related issues mentioned in publication titles and abstracts. This network analysis is implemented on the SuAVE (Survey Analysis via Visual Exploration, suave.sdsc.edu) visual analytics platform, using OpenAlex, an open-access bibliographic database, to extract and tag relevant publications with keywords and aquifer names. The system provides interactive visualizations of the academic landscape and computes fragmentation and centrality measures for individual researchers and network subsets, offering valuable insights for enhancing international collaboration on transboundary groundwater issues.

GRANDE-U funding under the “International Multilateral Partnerships for Resilient Education and Science System in Ukraine” (IMPRESS-U) initiative, led by the U.S. National Science Foundation, is gratefully acknowledged.

How to cite: Zaslavsky, I., Samalavičius, V., Solovey, T., Brzezińska, A., Janica, R., Śliwińska-Bronowicz, J., Stradczuk, A., Bikše, J., Žaržojus, G., and Kunsakova, A.: Data-driven Modeling of Transboundary Aquifers in Conflict Zones: Challenges and Solutions from the GRANDE-U International Collaboration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7285, 2025.

EGU25-7287 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Modeling Surface Water - Groundwater Interactions in the Tulare Lake Basin, California, USA 

Berhanu G. Sinshaw, Joshua H. Viers, and Mohammad Safeeq

The Tulare Lake Basin (TLB) of California, a vital agricultural hub that covers the southern part of the Sierra Nevada and the Central Valley, is experiencing severe water scarcity due to climate change, rising water demand, and extensive groundwater depletion. This study leverages an integrated hydrological model to quantify Surface Water-Groundwater (SW-GW) interactions in the TLB. We focus on understanding seasonal water balance trends, variability in groundwater recharge, and the impact of snowmelt on groundwater storage. The integrated SWAT+gwflow model was calibrated and validated using observations of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and groundwater head. Our results revealed a decreasing trend in groundwater storage (-4.77 mm/year), with a greater deficit during prolonged droughts.  Most of the groundwater fluxes have negative trends, including SW-GW exchange, saturated excess flow, and lateral flow. Boundary inflow exhibits a positive trend due to inflow from adjacent regions driven by hydraulic gradients caused by local groundwater depletion. Snowmelt emerged as a critical driver of groundwater recharge in the TLB, showing a stronger correlation in the spring (R2 >0.58) than fall and winter seasons (R2 < 0.5). These findings suggest exploring alternative means for groundwater recharge, as mountain snowpack is expected to decline in a warmer climate, such as capturing winter flood flows and the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate long-term water stress in the basin.

Keywords:  Coupled Model; SW-GW Interactions; TLB

How to cite: Sinshaw, B. G., Viers, J. H., and Safeeq, M.: Modeling Surface Water - Groundwater Interactions in the Tulare Lake Basin, California, USA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7287, 2025.

EGU25-8231 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Groundwater Recharge Variability in a Semi-Arid South African Catchment under Climate Change: Insights from Long-Term Observations and Machine Learning 

Elisa Bjerre, Julian Koch, William K. Dalum, Karen G. Villholth, Torben O. Sonnenborg, and Karsten H. Jensen

In semi-arid regions characterized by little and erratic precipitation and ephemeral river flow, groundwater is commonly the only perennial source of freshwater sustaining ecosystems and freshwater withdrawals for agricultural, domestic and industrial uses. However, the renewability of groundwater in these regions is associated with substantial uncertainty. Focused recharge, groundwater replenishment via seepage from surface drainage during high river flow, has been shown to contribute substantially to groundwater storage. Yet, the relative contributions of focused and diffuse recharge, as well as their dependence on rainfall variability and climate change, remain underexplored at catchment scale. This study employs a data-driven approach to estimate annual groundwater recharge in the semi-arid Hout/Sand catchment (7,722 km2), Limpopo, South Africa, utilizing data from 105 boreholes spanning 1955-2023. The Water Table Fluctuation method is used to derive annual recharge estimates from individual groundwater hydrographs. The recharge estimates are used to train a Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model employing physiographic and climatic predictors, which generates a fully distributed annual recharge map at a 100 m resolution for each year of the 69-year study period. The results show recharge rates exceeding 1,000 mm/year in wells near riverbeds, highlighting the dominance of focused recharge. Annual recharge maps demonstrate significant spatial variability, with high recharge values concentrated along river networks. Among the predictors in the LightGBM model, proximity to rivers emerged as the most critical factor. Total annual recharge exhibits strong inter-annual variability, closely correlated with total annual rainfall. However, preliminary findings indicate a decline in annual recharge after 2015 despite increasing annual rainfall, suggesting a decoupling of the recharge-rainfall relationship. A key limitation of the study is the bias introduced by the high concentration of wells near riverbeds characterized by high recharge rates. To address this, we aim to incorporate synthetic data points representing diffuse recharge into the model training. Focused recharge may provide a buffering effect against climate change, as more intense rainfall events could enhance recharge along the river networks. Future work will focus on quantifying the relative contribution of focused recharge to total recharge at the catchment scale, its temporal evolution, and its correlation with rainfall variability to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge.

How to cite: Bjerre, E., Koch, J., K. Dalum, W., G. Villholth, K., O. Sonnenborg, T., and H. Jensen, K.: Groundwater Recharge Variability in a Semi-Arid South African Catchment under Climate Change: Insights from Long-Term Observations and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8231, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8231, 2025.

EGU25-8584 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Integrating Data-Driven Approaches and High-Resolution Data for Enhanced Groundwater Management in Lemvig Municipality 

Ronja Forchhammer Mathiasen, Theis Raaschou Andersen, and Michael Rasmussen

This study addresses the escalating challenges associated with high near-surface groundwater levels in Lemvig Municipality, focusing on two distinct sites: an agricultural field and an urban area, both of which are experiencing issues with near-surface groundwater levels. The research aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of groundwater dynamics and their response to precipitation events in these areas.

A network of 82 IoT groundwater loggers, distributed across the two areas with distances between boreholes as close as 30 meters, monitors the near-surface groundwater levels at intervals down to every 15 minutes. The high-resolution data enables the calculation of weekly reconstructed groundwater tables and estimation of flow patterns for both locations, identifying regions at risk of flooding from high groundwater levels. The study also examines the areas response to rainfall events and hence their vulnerability to extreme precipitation. An estimation of the necessary data density required to perform the analyses will be provided, ensuring that the results are adequate for stakeholders to implement targeted climate adaptation and management of the near-surface groundwater.

Due to the high near-surface groundwater levels the water utility sewer-system in the two areas experiences at present an excessive water inflow, particularly during the winter months. Data from the areas have already been used to confirm infiltration into the sewer-network and to identify areas where sewers are likely situated below the groundwater table. This information is crucial for managing the water supply and mitigating the impacts of high groundwater levels. The data gathered in this study is thus already offering valuable insights into effective groundwater management and climate adaptation strategies.

The study will proceed with developing a process-based hydrological model and use data driven techniques to investigate the potential of enhancing prediction accuracy for different scenario calculations.

How to cite: Mathiasen, R. F., Andersen, T. R., and Rasmussen, M.: Integrating Data-Driven Approaches and High-Resolution Data for Enhanced Groundwater Management in Lemvig Municipality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8584, 2025.

Groundwater recharge is a key input in groundwater resources management. However, it is not directly measurable, and even the parameters for indirect estimation are difficult to obtain and verify. We developed a hydrological model that facilitates reliable calibration of specific yield of an aquifer, thus enabling groundwater recharge estimation by the water table fluctuation method. The novel soil moisture deficit model is based on existing bucket models. It features two parallel soil water reservoirs which capture all incoming precipitation. Groundwater recharge is generated only when the reservoirs are overfilled after satisfying evapotranspiration. The only input data required are easily measurable (and typically available) time series of precipitation and air temperature, and long-term record of water table fluctuations in wells for calibration. The model parameters, most importantly specific yield, are calibrated by comparing the modelled water table to the observed water table. The calibrated specific yield and the observed water table levels then serve as inputs for water table fluctuation method for estimation of groundwater recharge. The model was tested on 9 wells in the lowland along the river Elbe (Czech Republic). The wells are situated in highly permeable alluvial aquifers with unconfined water table. The wells were selected for the study because decades of water table records are available, and their water table exhibits multi-year fluctuations. The values of specific yield obtained by model calibration ranged from 5% to 17%, which is realistic for the studied aquifer type. The results were compared to a previous study conducted in the Czech Republic, in which the long-term mean groundwater recharge was estimated. Our results lie within the range indicated for the sites. Furthermore, the presented method provides the temporal distribution of groundwater recharge, thus broadening the knowledge of groundwater recharge dynamics. Besides this, the method can potentially be used to estimate the groundwater recharge under future climate conditions.

Acknowledgements

The study was supported by project SS02030040 "PERUN - Prediction, Evaluation and Research for Understanding National sensitivity and impacts of drought and climate change for Czechia", co-financed with state support of the Technology Agency Czech Republic as part of the Program Environment for Life. We would like to thank Mgr. Tomáš Ondovčin, Ph.D. for consultation of saturated zone modelling, and Mgr. Martin Lanzendörfer, PhD. and Ing. Jan Černý for aid with mathematical formulation of the SMD model.

How to cite: Šabatová, K. and Bruthans, J.: Calibration of the water table fluctuation method based on groundwater recharge model using easily available data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8737, 2025.

EGU25-10107 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Gap-filling groundwater level time series of irregular temporal resolution using physical modeling (Pastas) and simple statistical scaling 

Akhilesh S. Nair, Lena M. Tallaksen, Torkel A. Bjørbæk, and Raoul Collenteur

Groundwater level (GWL) monitoring datasets are essential for effective groundwater resource management and understanding the potential impacts of climate change. However, these datasets frequently contain gaps and irregular measurement intervals, posing challenges for time series analyses that depend on consistent sampling. As a result, GWL datasets with substantial gaps are frequently excluded from further analysis, leading to a loss of temporal and spatial coverage, regional representativity, and potentially valuable insights. Addressing this issue requires effective and interpretable imputation techniques to fill missing values while preserving the physical realism of the reconstructed data. Traditional statistical imputation methods and advanced machine learning algorithms, such as missForest, have been used to address data gaps. While these approaches often yield effective imputations, they lack physical interpretability, particularly for extreme events, which is crucial for understanding the variability and resilience of groundwater systems under changing environmental conditions. This study proposes a novel hybrid imputation approach that combines physical modeling with statistical adjustments. First, GWL data are simulated using Pastas, an open-source framework that leverages hydrometeorological variables and impulse response functions to model GWL time series. These simulations serve as a physically consistent basis for imputing missing values. In the second step, a linear scaling approach is applied to scale the simulated GWL to match the observed start and end point of each gap, ensuring consistency with observations. The hybrid method was tested on data from 213 monitoring wells across Sweden, encompassing diverse temporal resolution and gap characteristics. This process generated continuous daily time series spanning 34 years (1990–2023), enabling the evaluation of long-term groundwater dynamics across Sweden (future work). Validation focused on the ability to capture extreme GWL events. While Pastas-only simulations performed well in reproducing seasonal GWL variability, they failed to accurately capture extremes. The hybrid technique demonstrated significant improvements in representing extreme variability, offering a robust solution for handling irregular and incomplete datasets. Additionally, the study provides insights into regional data characteristics, such as variations in gap patterns and hydrometeorological drivers, offering valuable information for groundwater modeling and analysis. The proposed method not only enhances the reliability of GWL datasets but also supports better decision-making in groundwater resource management. The work is a contribution to the Water4All GroundedExtremes project.

How to cite: Nair, A. S., Tallaksen, L. M., Bjørbæk, T. A., and Collenteur, R.: Gap-filling groundwater level time series of irregular temporal resolution using physical modeling (Pastas) and simple statistical scaling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10107, 2025.

EGU25-10229 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Development of a Combined Machine Learning and Physics-based Approach to Reduce Hydrologic Model Spin-up Time 

Louisa Pawusch, Stefania Scheurer, Wolfgang Nowak, and Reed Maxwell

Finding the initial state groundwater configuration of a catchment is one of the major challenges when simulating the hydrological cycle with an integrated hydrological model. The choice of this initial condition has a large impact on the results of the subsequent simulation, and it is often found by repeatedly running the hydrological model with constant atmospheric settings until the system equilibrates. These spin-up computations are computationally expensive and often require many years of simulated time, especially if the initial groundwater configuration before the spin-up computations is far from this steady state.

We hypothesize that existing large-scale groundwater simulations at steady state can be used to machine learn how steady-state depth-to-water tables (DTWTs) for groundwater depend on readily available data sources like large-scale conductivity and surface slopes. But how well can steady-state DTWTs be estimated by such ideas? How much computing speed can be gained with improved initializations of spin-up simulation? And how well does the estimation of improved initializations generalize across different geological settings and climate?

To answer these questions, we developed the machine learning emulator HydroStartML to accelerate the spin-up computation. HydroStartML is trained on converged steady-state DTWT distribution, and it generates a configuration of the DTWT of the respective watershed. This configuration is used as the starting configuration for spin-up computations. Doing so reduces the overall computational effort compared to the typical approach of initiating spin-up computations with a uniform DTWT across the whole catchment. HydroStartML is trained on the entire contiguous United States on spatially distributed patches with a fixed set of parameters.

Spin-up computations with these DTWT configurations as starting configurations converge faster and with a reduced computational effort compared to spin-up computations with other initial configurations. We found that HydroStartML is indeed able to generate DTWT configurations that are close to the steady state, even on unseen terrain. Although the generation of shallow DTWTs is possible with especially small errors, the strongest reductions in spin-up effort occurs in regions with deep DTWTs. This work opens the door for hybrid approaches that blend machine learning and traditional simulation, enhancing predictive accuracy and efficiency in hydrology for improving water resource management and understanding complex environmental interactions.

How to cite: Pawusch, L., Scheurer, S., Nowak, W., and Maxwell, R.: Development of a Combined Machine Learning and Physics-based Approach to Reduce Hydrologic Model Spin-up Time, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10229, 2025.

EGU25-11456 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Quantifying Groundwater Contaminant Source Uncertainty in Fracture Networks Combining Falsification and Bayesian Evidential Learning 

Kehan Miao, Yong Huang, Le Zhang, Liming Guo, and Thomas Hermans

Identifying contaminant sources is crucial for managing groundwater contamination, particularly in complex fracture networks. Traditional methods for source identification often face limitations such as sensitivity to data perturbations, reliance on simplified hydrological models, and challenges in handling the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem. This study introduces a novel application of Bayesian Evidential Learning (BEL) to quantify contaminant source uncertainty in fracture networks(Hermans et al., 2018; Thibaut et al., 2021).

BEL relies on learning a direct relationship between the target parameters (source location, release time, and concentration) and predictors (breakthrough curves (BTCs) and their statistical features). The learning step relies on the sampling of target parameters for which the release and transport of contaminant is simulated, and the resulting BTCs at the observation point extracted. The complexity of the training process was mitigated by incorporating falsification to classify the prior model(Yin et al., 2020). One-hot encoding then was employed to discretize potential source locations, enhancing the correlation between predictor and target using principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) (Figure 1). Experimental data and numerical simulations of solute transport in fracture networks were then employed to validate the BEL framework (Figure 2).

Results demonstrate that BEL not only achieves accurate predictions on the source location, release time and concentration, but also provides robust uncertainty quantification for contaminant sources. These findings highlight BEL's potential as a powerful tool for improving source tracking and remediation strategies in groundwater systems. Future research should consider uncertainty in the fracture network and hydraulic properties of the fractures.

Figure 1. Multivariate analysis of training data. A. The explanatory power of data across different PCs in the PCA space. B-E are the bivariate distributions of predictor and target data in the CCA space.

Figure 2. Posterior distribution predictions for contaminant source information. Red lines correspond to test data

 

References

Hermans, T., Nguyen, F., Klepikova, M., Dassargues, A., & Caers, J. (2018). Uncertainty Quantification of Medium-Term Heat Storage From Short-Term Geophysical Experiments Using Bayesian Evidential Learning. Water Resources Research, 54(4), 2931–2948. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR022135

Thibaut, R., Laloy, E., & Hermans, T. (2021). A new framework for experimental design using Bayesian Evidential Learning: The case of wellhead protection area. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 126903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126903

Yin, Z., Strebelle, S., & Caers, J. (2020). Automated Monte Carlo-based quantification and updating of geological uncertainty with borehole data (AutoBEL v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 13(2), 651–672. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-651-2020

How to cite: Miao, K., Huang, Y., Zhang, L., Guo, L., and Hermans, T.: Quantifying Groundwater Contaminant Source Uncertainty in Fracture Networks Combining Falsification and Bayesian Evidential Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11456, 2025.

EGU25-11772 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Spatial machine learning predictions of geogenic compounds in groundwater 

Georgios Ikaros Xenakis, Søren Jessen, Julian Koch, and Jolanta Kazmierczak

Groundwater is a critical source of drinking water and as demand increases on a global scale under climate change and population growth, a suitable quantity of clean groundwater must be ensured. Groundwater chemistry depends on environmental factors such as geology, climate, groundwater table and residence time, land use, and recharge source and rate. Geogenic compounds, such as arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), phosphorus (P), ammonium (NH4+), and iron (Fe), often occur in groundwater and are important determinants of groundwater quality. When exceeding recommended concentration limits in groundwater, these compounds can pose risks to human health and the environment, and cause problems in water treatment and distribution. In this study, we applied machine learning, i.e., classification algorithms and feature importance analysis, to investigate the spatial patterns of selected geogenic compounds and their governing factors. We used groundwater chemistry measurements from over 7,000 well intakes with mean depth of 47.8 m distributed across Denmark and 34 covariate maps including soil, geology, and hydrogeology information. Models are developed for As, Mn, total P, NH4+ and Fe, and achieve a balanced accuracy between 76% and 88%. The main results are prediction maps of 100 m resolution showing the probability of the selected geogenic compounds exceeding the concentration limits in groundwater recommended by Danish legislation. Our analysis advocates that the spatial variability of all selected compounds depends mostly on geological factors such as the thickness of Quaternary, accumulated clay deposits above chalk, and the depth to chalk formations. High concentrations of all studied geogenic compounds are predicted in areas with thick Quaternary and clay deposits, while low Mn and P predictions occur in areas where chalk is present at lower depths. Overall, we found that groundwater exceeds recommended concentration limits for As, Mn, P, NH4+ and Fe in 9.6%, 67.5%, 48.5%, 73.5% and 83% of Denmark’s area, respectively. Our results enhance the understanding of the processes driving groundwater quality in Denmark, which may be transferable to other domains with similar hydrogeological settings, e.g. northern America. The generated prediction maps can guide for identifying optimal locations for new wells and water treatment techniques, improving the overall groundwater resource management at national scale. Accordingly, this study shows how public high-quality databases can aid groundwater management.

How to cite: Xenakis, G. I., Jessen, S., Koch, J., and Kazmierczak, J.: Spatial machine learning predictions of geogenic compounds in groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11772, 2025.

EGU25-12241 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Hybrid modelling of piezometric head – a large sample test 

Gaspard Grech, Charlotte Sakarovitch, Axelle Malaize, and Vazken Andréassian

This work aims at reliably modeling water table fluctuations, in an operational groundwater management perspective. It is based on a large set of ca 100 piezometers, representative of the hydrogeological diversity of French groundwater exploitations (mostly aquifers presenting dual-porosity dynamics, often located in the phreatic domain).

This study, a component of the Water Resources Forecast SUEZ’s project, partially funded by the French Ecological Transition Agency (ADEME’s innov’eau initiative), compares several approaches for the modelling of daily piezometric head and its fluctuations induced by recharge:

  • a conceptual model (derived from an existing rainfall-runoff hydrological model, whose ability to reproduce piezometric time-series — through one of its conceptual reservoirs);
  • a classic AI approach (a non-parametric and data-based method using random forest algorithms applied to data-engineered features, e.g. rolling sums of meteorological inputs);
  • a few hybrid approaches resulting from various combinations of the two previous solutions. 

All the above mentioned methods use daily meteorological data (precipitation and evapotranspiration time series) as inputs for the modeling chain. Model efficiency is assumed at the daily step using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion, over three distinct 5-years periods where observed piezometric time-series are available.

Based on our results, we discuss the potential of using hybrid models for short-, medium- and long-term operational forecasting.

How to cite: Grech, G., Sakarovitch, C., Malaize, A., and Andréassian, V.: Hybrid modelling of piezometric head – a large sample test, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12241, 2025.

EGU25-12561 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Surrogate-assisted Bayesian inference with ERT data for contaminant transport modelling in the subsurface 

Maria Fernanda Morales Oreamuno, Nino Menzel, Sergey Oladyshkin, Florian M. Wagner, and Wolfgang Nowak

Understanding and predicting groundwater contaminant transport is inherently challenging due to uncertainties in both field-specific properties and contaminant-related parameters. These uncertainties pose challenges for effective environmental management, including project planning, non-invasive long-term monitoring, and remediation efforts. To address this, we propose a framework that combines geophysical monitoring, surrogate-assisted Bayesian inference, and dimensionality reduction techniques to quantify and reduce these uncertainties and aid in decision making processes. For the implementation of Bayesian inference, our work focuses on electrical resistivity tomography, a geophysical method that is particularly well-suited for the abovementioned purpose due to its sensitivity to variations in fluid content and temperature.

The proposed approach addresses two major computational challenges. First, Bayesian inference requires extensive model runs, which can become computationally prohibitive for large domains with fine grids, multiple processes, and multiple time steps. To mitigate this, we use surrogate models that approximate the full physics-based model using input-output data pairs, significantly reducing computational costs. Second, the high-dimensional nature of ERT data complicates both surrogate training and Bayesian inference. High output dimensions lead to increased training times, larger data requirements, and difficulties in likelihood estimation due to the "curse of dimensionality." To overcome this, we incorporate dimension reduction techniques into the framework.

Our main focus is to evaluate how surrogate modeling approximations and dimension reduction strategies influence the accuracy and efficiency of Bayesian inference when using ERT measurements for contaminant transport applications. We apply our framework on a 2D synthetic non-reactive contaminant transport scenario, integrating ERT measurements while accounting for uncertainties in both field-specific and contaminant-related parameters. This methodology provides a practical tool for subsurface engineering, offering improvements in planning, parameter estimation, and long-term monitoring to enhance contaminant transport predictions and remediation strategies.

How to cite: Morales Oreamuno, M. F., Menzel, N., Oladyshkin, S., Wagner, F. M., and Nowak, W.: Surrogate-assisted Bayesian inference with ERT data for contaminant transport modelling in the subsurface, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12561, 2025.

EGU25-13673 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Advancing Large-Scale Hyper-Resolution Groundwater Modeling Using a Machine Learning-Based Downscaling Tool 

Yueling Ma, Danielle Tijerina-Kreuzer, Amy Defnet, Laura Condon, and Reed Maxwell

Groundwater is becoming more important in sustainable water management, particularly in the context of climate change and intensive human interventions. Given that groundwater varies in space and time, it is important to predict both its dynamic processes and static patterns. However, lack of reliable groundwater data restricts the development of large-scale groundwater monitoring systems linking observations with modeling at spatial scales relevant for local decision making. In this study, we leverage existing physically-based modeling data and water table depth observations in the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and develop a machine learning-based downscaling tool to downscale 1-km modeling data to 1arcsec (~ 30 m). The modeling data were generated daily for the water year 2003 using ParFlow, a three-dimensional integrated hydrologic model. In addition, we input a range of meteorological, topographic, geological, and land use data, including daily precipitation and temperature, elevation, hydraulic conductivity, mean soil and clay contents, and land cover types. Based on tree-based machine learning models running on GPUs, the downscaling tool outputs a 1 arcsec water table depth map for the CONUS daily in a relatively short time. The resulting hyper-resolution water table depth map incorporates groundwater pumping and uncertainty, significantly advancing our understanding of groundwater dynamics across various scales, from the continental to small scales relevant to local decision-making. We also obtain the importance of input variables based on the results of the machine learning models, which is helpful for the future development of the groundwater monitoring system over the CONUS. While the downscaling tool is developed for the CONUS, it can be adapted to other regions with similar hydrogeological settings and substantial modeling data.

How to cite: Ma, Y., Tijerina-Kreuzer, D., Defnet, A., Condon, L., and Maxwell, R.: Advancing Large-Scale Hyper-Resolution Groundwater Modeling Using a Machine Learning-Based Downscaling Tool, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13673, 2025.

EGU25-13850 | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

A Novel Machine Learning-based Method for Groundwater Modelling involving Aquifer Rainfall Time Response Analysis and Clustering of Groundwater Wells 

Hugo Breuillard, Marc Laurencelle, Shuaitao Wang, Célia Mato, Sébastien Dupraz, and Yann Dantal

Clustering of groundwater level data is crucial for water resource management, as it increases the efficiency of models in distinctly predicting specific hydrogeological patterns in aquifer systems. Traditional methods mostly rely on spatial or time series distance metrics, neglecting the impact of external inputs (rainfall, evapotranspiration, etc.) on aquifer systems. This study introduces an innovative machine learning-based approach to model aquifer systems at the piezometer level. While our flexible methodology accommodates any model and input, we selected a random forest model for its lightweight nature and interpretability. This model-based technique enables the clustering of similar aquifers based on model parameters. By leveraging the decision trees feature importances, we derive the rainfall response time distribution of the aquifer at the piezometer level, facilitating a quantitative analysis of the local aquifer dynamics. Additionally, we demonstrate that, by selecting analogous distributions using a simple similarity measure, the predictive performance of groundwater level global forecasting models is significantly enhanced.

How to cite: Breuillard, H., Laurencelle, M., Wang, S., Mato, C., Dupraz, S., and Dantal, Y.: A Novel Machine Learning-based Method for Groundwater Modelling involving Aquifer Rainfall Time Response Analysis and Clustering of Groundwater Wells, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13850, 2025.

EGU25-13994 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Presenting Interim Results of the Groundwater Spatial Modeling Challenge 

Maximilian Nölscher, Marc Ohmer, Ezra Haaf, and Tanja Liesch

Hell no, we haven’t yet fully explored the potential of spatial modeling of groundwater parameters—and also the Groundwater Spatial Modeling Challenge (https://groundwater-spatial-modeling-challenge.github.io/challenge2024/) hasn’t solved it. However, this challenge fosters learning and discussion within the community by providing standardized data and performance evaluation. At the same time, it helps uncover previously unknown members of the community and facilitates collaboration.

This year, we present the interim results of all participating teams, comparing their methodological approaches and providing a preliminary analysis of model performances on the training and test data splits. Multiple metrics are used to account for their different focal points and limitations. Since quantitative metrics alone are insufficient to fully evaluate model predictions, we also analyze and discuss the generated maps of nitrate concentrations for the German state of Baden-Württemberg. Additionally, we provide a brief comparison of the prediction intervals submitted by each team.

Beyond presenting these results, our main aim is to provide a platform for further exchange and collaboration on these topics.

To encourage more teams to join, we are extending the participation deadline once again to July 15, 2025! Interested individuals or teams can find more information and participate via the link above. Submissions made by early April will have their results presented at the EGU.

How to cite: Nölscher, M., Ohmer, M., Haaf, E., and Liesch, T.: Presenting Interim Results of the Groundwater Spatial Modeling Challenge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13994, 2025.

EGU25-15537 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Deep Learning Models for Seasonal Groundwater Level Prediction 

Stefan Kunz, Maria Wetzel, Michael Engel, and Stefan Broda

The development of purely data-driven approaches for groundwater level prediction is crucial for sustainable groundwater management, offering the ability to predict groundwater levels across numerous monitoring wells and large geographical regions. Especially in arid regions, groundwater resources are under pressure, as seen in areas like Brandenburg, Germany, which is characterized as the driest federal state with the highest number of lakes. Here, data-driven approaches can enable fast and accurate seasonal groundwater level predictions, supporting local authorities in managing sustainable utilization.

Unlike traditional numerical models, which are computationally expensive and require complex parameterization when applied to large geographical areas, data-driven models provide a scalable solution. Recent studies have demonstrated the potential of machine learning (ML) approaches, particularly different deep neural network architectures, to provide accurate groundwater level predictions. In these studies, recurrent neural networks, such as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), as well as recently developed architectures like the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), which combines LSTMs with the self-attention mechanisms, and Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting (N-HiTS), which is a time-series decomposition algorithm based on multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), have been used. Another recently developed architecture, the Time-series Dense Encoder (TiDE), which is based on MLPs and residual blocks, has further expanded the toolkit for time-series prediction.

In this study, we evaluate and compare the performance of four deep learning (DL) architectures (LSTM, TFT, N-HiTS, and TiDE) in predicting groundwater levels up to 16 ahead, using a wealth of spatial and temporal information for over 1,000 monitoring wells across Brandenburg. Input features to our models include historical groundwater level measurements, climatic variables, and static physical characteristics, such as groundwater recharge and land cover. Our analysis identifies the environmental conditions under which these models achieve a good predictive performance accuracy and assesses their ability to capture varying groundwater dynamics, thereby testing their alignment with hydrogeological system understanding. Furthermore, we assess whether the static features enhance the models performance and facilitate generalization across monitoring wells with similar static features levels, which we test through ablation studies and spatial out-of-sample cross-validation.

Our findings provide valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of different DL architectures for groundwater level prediction, highlighting their potential to support sustainable groundwater management in regions facing water scarcity.

How to cite: Kunz, S., Wetzel, M., Engel, M., and Broda, S.: Deep Learning Models for Seasonal Groundwater Level Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15537, 2025.

The GALDIT method is one of the most prevalent methodologies for assessing seawater intrusion vulnerability. However, the subjectivity of the vulnerability assessment framework and the complexity of the factors influencing seawater intrusion pose challenges to accurate mapping of vulnerability assessment. Hence, this paper proposes a new vulnerability assessment model for seawater intrusion based on the GALDIT method, incorporating machine learning techniques (Artificial Neural Networks, ANN, and Random Forests, RF) and triangular fuzzy membership functions (FMF). The new modelling framework introduces “Water yield property of the aquifer” for representing the influence of geological structures on groundwater storage status and adds a "Land Use type" factor to characterize the impact of human activities, and is referred to as "WALDIT_LU". This framework was tested in a coastal aquifer in Shandong Province, China. The results show that the thematic maps improved by the FMF method are more objective and better suited for regions with extensive data ranges or scales than those produced by the original GALDIT method. Hydrochemical validation results indicate a significant enhancement in the accuracy of vulnerability maps created by the WALDIT_LU-ANN and WALDIT_LU-RF models compared to the original GALDIT model. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient values obtained between the GALDIT, WALDIT_LU-ANN, WALDIT_LU-RF and the Cl- ion were 0.291, 0.426 and 0.477, respectively. The equivalent ratio values using the TDS as the parameter were 0.275, 0.737 and 0.811, respectively. The optimised factor weights for the WALDIT_LU-RF model are more reasonable with factor weights of 25.52% (I), 14.47% (A), 14.38% (D), 12.49% (T), 11.73% (LU), 10.68% (W), and 10.73% (L). It is concluded that the new framework incorporating the WALDIT_LU index provides a more comprehensive consideration of the factors influencing seawater intrusion. Additionally, the new model reduces subjectivity and enhances the reliability of mapping seawater intrusion vulnerability.

How to cite: Cheng, J., Bai, Y., and Zhao, X.: An improved GALDIT method combined with machine learning for assessing aquifer vulnerability to seawater intrusion in the Shandong Peninsula, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16463, 2025.

EGU25-16851 | Orals | HS8.2.4

Modelling shallow groundwater fluctuation based on water table depth – groundwater evapotranspiration relationship 

Tamás Ács, Zsolt Kozma, Bence Decsi, and Zoltán Simonffy

Fluctuation of shallow groundwater (GW) characteristic in plains and lowlands is regulated by recharge from precipitation and groundwater evapotranspiration under natural conditions. Here a simple 1D (pointwise) model is presented that is capable of reproducing the dynamics of shallow GW levels at monthly, weekly or even daily time scale at the location of groundwater level monitoring wells using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as input variables. The model utilizes the empirical curve describing the dependence of GW evapotranspiration on the depth of water table, revealed by analyzing historical measured GW level and evapotranspiration time series in the Great Hungarian Plain. Besides GW levels, the model calculates groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration. Soil and hydrological parameters of the model are calibrated based on measured GW levels.

Potential fields of application of the model are shown through Hungarian examples: 1) Using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data of various climate models, expected alterations of shallow GW levels due to climate change can be predicted. 2) By comparing measured and simulated GW levels, alterations in GW levels and fluctuation due to anthropogenic activity (e.g. GW abstractions) can be revealed. 3) Data gaps in measured GW level time series can be filled by the model. 4) Extending the time series of measured GW levels into the past allows for historical analyses, e.g. the temporal changes of GW supply of dependent ecosystems.

How to cite: Ács, T., Kozma, Z., Decsi, B., and Simonffy, Z.: Modelling shallow groundwater fluctuation based on water table depth – groundwater evapotranspiration relationship, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16851, 2025.

EGU25-18009 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Offshore Freshened Groundwater prospecting using Machine Learning 

Ariel T. Thomas, Daniel Zamrsky, Gualbert H. P. Oude Essink, Marc F.P. Bierkens, and Aaron Micallef

Offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) represents a significant potential resource, with global volumes estimated at 10⁵–10⁶ km³. However, the scarcity of subsurface data on continental shelves poses challenges to understanding OFG systems' offshore extent, depth, and freshwater volume. Addressing these gaps, the OPTIMAL project leverages global geomorphological and sea-level datasets to develop machine learning models for OFG prediction and characterization. We present the results of the first stage of the project, including surrogate model design and parameter space definition. A suite of surrogate models was developed to capture key geological and geomorphological parameters influencing OFG systems. These 2D continental shelf profiles were defined by five parameters derived from open-source global datasets including shelf width, shelf-break depth, coastal unconsolidated sediment thickness and offshore aquifer properties. Numerical modeling of marine transgressive and regressive cycles was applied to these models to generate a training dataset encompassing OFG system realizations and associated parameter spaces. Initial ML models trained on this dataset demonstrate the feasibility of using surrogate models to overcome data scarcity issues in OFG characterization. Future work will refine these models, with a binary classification system to identify OFG presence and a multi-output regression for resource feasibility ranking. These results highlight the potential of integrating data-driven approaches to improve our understanding of OFG systems, providing a scalable framework for predicting OFG distribution and characteristics at both global and local scales.

How to cite: Thomas, A. T., Zamrsky, D., Oude Essink, G. H. P., Bierkens, M. F. P., and Micallef, A.: Offshore Freshened Groundwater prospecting using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18009, 2025.

EGU25-18245 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Do spatial random forest variants improve the regionalization of environmental pollutants? - The case of groundwater nitrate concentration 

Jonathan Frank, Thomas Suesse, Shijie Jiang, and Alexander Brenning

Machine learning models, particularly Random Forests (RF), are increasingly used to regionalize environmental pollutants based on point measurements. Spatial variants of RF are emerging to account for geospatial data characteristics, such as spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity. However, systematic comparisons of these spatial RF variants remain limited.

This study evaluates seven spatial RF variants and compares them to non-spatial RF, universal kriging (UK), a well-established geostatistical method, and multiple linear regression (MLR). Using nitrate concentrations in groundwater from two contrasting hydrogeological macro-regions in Germany, we assess predictive performance (mean absolute error) across varying prediction distances using spatial cross-validation.

The results show minor differences among spatial RF variants, except for the notably lower performance of Random Forest Spatial Interpolation (RFSI) at long prediction distances. Over short distances (within the practical range of spatial autocorrelation), spatial RF variants outperformed non-spatial RF and MLR. The RF-oob-OK method, which applies ordinary kriging on the out-of-bag errors, demonstrated consistently strong performance with acceptable computational efficiency. However, it did not substantially surpass UK in predictive performance.

Computationally manageable spatial RF variants, such as RF-oob-OK, represent viable alternatives to traditional geostatistical methods for spatial prediction of environmental pollutants, effectively exploiting both spatial predictors and autocorrelation.

How to cite: Frank, J., Suesse, T., Jiang, S., and Brenning, A.: Do spatial random forest variants improve the regionalization of environmental pollutants? - The case of groundwater nitrate concentration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18245, 2025.

EGU25-18480 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.4

Assessing Surface-Groundwater Interactions Using Time-Series Clustering and Convergent Cross Mapping: A Case Study of Saxony, Germany 

Maria Alejandra Vela Castillo, Andreas Hartmann, and Yan Liu

The interaction between surface water and groundwater plays a crucial role in effective water resource management. In Saxony, Eastern Germany, lakes and reservoirs contribute significantly to the public water supply, alongside groundwater to a lesser extent. Despite growing attention to comprehensive studies of the region's water resources, the complex dynamics between streamflow and groundwater levels remain insufficiently explored. This research aimed to address this gap by providing a detailed analysis of these interactions using time series data.

To bridge this gap, the research framework integrated preprocessing techniques, feature-based characterization and clustering of groundwater level time series, and Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) applied to coupled groundwater level and discharge datasets. CCM, which uses time series data to identify causal relationships within dynamic systems, their direction and strength, was used to study the interactions between groundwater and streamflow in different regions of Saxony, Germany. Data from 597 groundwater level and 190 discharge time series have been used. The study also employed R, MATLAB, and QGIS for data processing and analysis, based on publicly available GitHub repositories and official documentation from previous studies.

The results revealed significant spatial variability in groundwater-stream interactions, with high levels of interaction identified in catchments such as the Elbe and Schwarze Elster, and lower levels of interaction in urban and agricultural areas. In regions such as Lausitz, geological and soil factors strongly influenced the streamflow-groundwater dynamic, with more complex interactions in areas with loess and highland soils. Factors like land cover and soil type played a significant role, as urbanization and land use changes can reduce groundwater recharge rates and disrupt natural water pathways. These findings underscore the importance of spatially distributed data for understanding the drivers of water system behavior and regional water resource management.

In conclusion, this study demonstrated the value of integrating time series data analysis methods, such as CCM, to enhance the understanding of hydrological dynamics in Saxony. The results provided insights into areas of high groundwater-streamflow interaction, highlighted the role of influencing factors, and emphasized the need for spatially detailed hydrological assessments to inform future water resource management strategies in the region.

How to cite: Vela Castillo, M. A., Hartmann, A., and Liu, Y.: Assessing Surface-Groundwater Interactions Using Time-Series Clustering and Convergent Cross Mapping: A Case Study of Saxony, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18480, 2025.

EGU25-19207 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Temperature evolution in the shallow subsurface of the Netherlands 

Eldert Fokker, Zanne Korevaar, Victor Bense, and Willem Jan Zaadnoordijk

The Geological Survey of the Netherlands has extensively mapped the subsurface of the Netherlands, including a series of temperature measurements in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Over 500 temperature-depth profiles have been obtained in piezometers up to depths of few hundreds of meters. These nationally distributed measurements provide an important historical baseline relevant for drinking water quality, and subsurface energy systems. For this purpose, isothermal maps covering the Netherlands were produced for various depths.

Since these temperature-depth data were collected, substantial changes in ground surface temperatures have occurred as a result of both land-use change and global warming. In order to quantify subsurface temperature changes, and to evaluate whether the old temperature maps need to be updated, we repeated a small subset of the original temperature measurements, spread over the Netherlands in the same piezometers where historical data were obtained. This study discusses the first results of this new survey by comparing the modern data to the historical ones in relation to changes in climate and land use.

How to cite: Fokker, E., Korevaar, Z., Bense, V., and Zaadnoordijk, W. J.: Temperature evolution in the shallow subsurface of the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19207, 2025.

EGU25-20739 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Leveraging Drilled Well Data into a Modified DRASTIC Framework for Groundwater Vulnerability Mapping in Estonia 

Liina Hints, Magdaleena Männik, Raivo Aunap, and Andres Marandi

Groundwater is the primary source of Estonia’s drinking water, but its vulnerability remains under-characterized across regions that lack detailed mapping. Current assessments rely on a modified DRASTIC method based on field-based geological mapping, which so far covers only about a third of Estonia. The EU Water Framework Directive and the ongoing development of a new nationwide, data-driven risk assessment methodology have highlighted the need for alternative approaches to assess groundwater vulnerability – particularly in areas where existing maps are outdated or unavailable.

This study introduces a further adaptation of the modified DRASTIC method, leveraging Estonia’s extensive database of drilled wells to evaluate groundwater vulnerability on a national scale. Drilled well logs contain detailed information on local geological and hydrogeological conditions, which, once interpreted, inform DRASTIC parameter values.

A Python-based data processing workflow, incorporating a natural language processing routine, will be used to automatically extract and classify thousands of unique Quaternary sediment descriptions. Subsequently, a combination of Python and open-source GIS tools will be used to develop a semi-automated geospatial model to compute vulnerability indices for each individual drilled well site. The model’s performance will be evaluated in regions with established vulnerability maps to ensure calibration against existing field-based results. Finally, a customized kriging-based interpolation method will be used to generate region-wide vulnerability surfaces from the data points, which will undergo further validation and refinement by comparison with known maps.

Preliminary results indicate that well-based vulnerability scores align closely with those produced by the current, more detailed DRASTIC methodology, suggesting this approach could be a viable alternative for assessing groundwater vulnerability in unmapped areas. Using data from drilled wells allows for the flexible inclusion of multiple layers of Quaternary deposits, rather than limiting assessments to the uppermost layer. This enables the consideration of deep layers of clays and silts, potentially offering more accurate assessments compared to the current method in some areas. However, findings also suggest that certain DRASTIC parameters may require adjusted weightings or redefinition to better capture local variability.

By integrating digital drilled well logs with open-source GIS and coding tools, this methodology provides a practical alternative for large-scale groundwater vulnerability mapping in areas where other relevant spatial datasets are not available. The approach offers a broad coverage and leverages an already available, constantly growing dataset, possibly enabling continuous, near-automatic vulnerability reassessments using the most up-to-date data. This study reaffirms the value of modifying established methodologies like DRASTIC to account for new data formats, providing a flexible framework for improving groundwater management practices.

How to cite: Hints, L., Männik, M., Aunap, R., and Marandi, A.: Leveraging Drilled Well Data into a Modified DRASTIC Framework for Groundwater Vulnerability Mapping in Estonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20739, 2025.

EGU25-20741 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.4

Integrated flood-drought climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning – case of Herk-Mombeek catchment, Belgium 

Tingli Wang, Isis Brangers, and Patrick Willems

The increasing risks of flood and drought events, driven by climate change and urbanization, are particularly pronounced in Flanders, Belgium, where vulnerability to hydrological extremes is high. This study focuses on a significant land-based agricultural and fruit production area in Flanders, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and floods. We use a data-driven, distributed hydrological model, coupling AquaCrop with a simplified groundwater model, to simulate interactions between surface and groundwater, and to simulate the land use and management impact on catchment runoff and groundwater recharge. We conducted a detailed sensitivity analysis on the model parameters and calibrated the model with focus on the validity of actual local physical processes. Furthermore, we project future water allocation under multiple climate scenarios to quantify the spatial and seasonal distribution of flood and drought impacts in both current and future climates. The outcomes provide a research basis for subsequent evaluations of possible land-based climate adaptation actions and propose a comprehensive action plan in close consultation of the local stakeholders.

How to cite: Wang, T., Brangers, I., and Willems, P.: Integrated flood-drought climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning – case of Herk-Mombeek catchment, Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20741, 2025.

EGU25-20774 | Orals | HS8.2.4

A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Contaminant Plume Evolution in Groundwater systems 

Chaoqi Wang, Zhi Dou, Yun Yang, Zhou Chen, Rui Hu, Yanrong Zhao, and Jinguo Wang

Accurate prediction of the contaminant plumes in groundwater systems are critical for effective pollution management and risk assessment. Effective simulations for reliable predictions require two key pieces of information. The first is detailed knowledge of the aquifer system, including subsurface structures and the hydrogeological heterogeneity of hydraulic parameters. The second is data about the contaminant plume, including its source, spatial distribution, and concentration. However, acquiring and analyzing this data is often costly and labor-intensive due to the extensive collection efforts and complex processing techniques required.

To address these challenges, we developed an innovative machine learning prediction approach. The architecture of the model combines fully connected layers followed by convolutional layers. The training dataset for the machine learning model was generated using a numerical simulation model of groundwater flow and contaminant transport processes in a synthetic aquifer. Monitored contaminant concentration data were used as inputs to the machine-learning model, while contaminant plume distributions (e.g., concentration fields spanning from the initial contaminant release to 10 years in the future) served as outputs. The machine learning models are trained and evaluated under two scenarios: (1) assuming aquifer properties are well-known, (2) aquifer properties are unknown. According to the results, in scenario 1, the prediction of the contaminant field at various time is highly accurate: the predictions resemble the reference at high degree. In scenario 2, prediction accuracy decreased but remained effective: the predicted contaminant plume closely matched the overall structure of the reference distribution. The main advantage of this machine-learning approach is its capability to directly analyze monitoring data and predict the transient groundwater contaminant transport processes, the labor-intensive steps of aquifer characterization and initial contaminant field determination are eliminated. Moreover, the results not only forecast future evolution but also allow for historical tracing, all the way back to its initial release point, thus it provides a comprehensive understanding of the contaminant's lifecycle.

How to cite: Wang, C., Dou, Z., Yang, Y., Chen, Z., Hu, R., Zhao, Y., and Wang, J.: A Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Contaminant Plume Evolution in Groundwater systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20774, 2025.

The Emilia-Romagna region is located in north-eastern Italy and hosts extensive agricultural and industrial activity along with densely populated urban centers. All these elements contribute to increase the water demand, which often relies on groundwater resources, especially during droughts.

The complex regional aquifer system, consisting of multiple interconnected layers, presents a challenging yet compelling case study. Moreover, the region benefits from hydrogeological and environmental data gathered through long-term monitoring and research activities, offering a robust foundation for further detailed analysis.

In this study we estimate the potential evolution of groundwater conditions in part of the Emilia-Romagna region, considering the impacts of climate change and human activities. In particular, the goal is to evaluate the resilience of the regional multi-layered aquifer system to prolonged drought conditions, and to outline potential guidelines for long-term sustainable regional groundwater management. Two modeling techniques are employed: a numerical groundwater flow model and a random forest algorithm. This dual approach allows to compare the performance of a physics-based and a machine learning model in simulating historical and future groundwater levels within the same study area, thus investigating the potential benefits of combining both methods.

In the first phase, a groundwater model is implemented using MODFLOW 6, alongside a random forest algorithm developed in R. Input data are sourced from a MODFLOW model covering the entire Emilia-Romagna groundwater system by Arpae (Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna), as well as from publicly accessible datasets available through the Emilia-Romagna Region and Arpae repositories.

Next, we use the groundwater model and the random forest algorithm to analyze scenarios under different climatic and groundwater abstraction conditions. The aim is to assess the combined impacts of hypothetical drought events and changes in groundwater pumping rate regime on the groundwater heads in the regional aquifer system.  Results from both approaches suggest that the aquifer system is vulnerable to potential future droughts. While increased groundwater abstraction could intensify the effects of reduced precipitation, decreasing groundwater pumping might partially alleviate the drought effects. Specific areas are also pinpointed where the impacts of reduced precipitation, changes in pumping rate, or their combination are more significant. This underscores the importance of evaluating both the overall study region and local scales to identify critical hotspots and determine the most effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation to future droughts and climate change.

The random forest algorithm offers valuable insights into the relative importance of data and variables influencing the final groundwater head distribution, enhancing the interpretation of the groundwater model results and suggesting areas for potential improvement. However, due to its lack of physical interpretability, it presents a lower generalization capability compared to a numerical model. These findings highlight the advantages of integrating physics-based and machine learning approaches to understand model outputs and improve overall performance. Combining the two methods strengthens both the calibration process and the scenario analysis, providing a significant contribution to groundwater modeling, which will play an increasingly important role in the future.

How to cite: Delfini, I., Zamrsky, D., and Montanari, A.: A comparative analysis of physics-based and machine learning methods for sustainable aquifer management in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-660, 2025.

EGU25-1029 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Decoding the Impact of LULC Changes on Groundwater Recharge in Western India 

Payal Waindeshkar and Bhavana Umrikar

Groundwater recharge is significantly influenced by anthropogenic activities, particularly changes in land use and land cover (LULC). These long-term temporal and seasonal LULC changes alter groundwater flow dynamics, necessitating their assessment for sustainable groundwater resource management. This study investigates the effects of LULC changes on groundwater recharge processes in the sub-watershed of the Nira River, Maharashtra, India. Using Google Earth Engine, LULC classifications were generated from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery acquired over a decadal period (2014–2024). A change detection algorithm was employed to decipher the long-term spatio-temporal LULC patterns, complemented by seasonal analysis using LULC maps of wet and dry months. Historical data from government agencies and private entities validated these findings, strengthening the analysis. 

The results indicate a 4.6% increase in built-up areas and a 5.7% decrease in forest cover over the analysis period. Rainfall data from 2015 to 2024 was correlated with groundwater level records, revealing enhanced recharge in 2024 compared to 2014. This improvement is attributed to increased rainwater harvesting structures observed during the assessment period, contributing significantly to recharge in dug wells. Seasonal LULC variations also influenced recharge dynamics, with the dry season showing higher recharge potential compared to the wet season. These findings provide critical insights into the interplay between LULC changes, groundwater recharge processes, and sustainable water resource management in the study area.

Keywords: LULC, impact assessment, Groundwater recharge, Western Deccan Basalt, India

How to cite: Waindeshkar, P. and Umrikar, B.: Decoding the Impact of LULC Changes on Groundwater Recharge in Western India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1029, 2025.

Groundwater is a vital resource supporting drinking water, agriculture, and ecosystems, which are critical in sustaining life and economic development. Groundwater contamination poses significant risks to public health, particularly for vulnerable populations such as infants, children, and adults. This study investigates the health risk assessment of groundwater contamination, focusing on key contaminants, including heavy metals contamination, irrigation indices, and hydrogeochemical characteristics in Ranipet District (RD), a region heavily influenced by agriculture and tannery industries. A total of 408 groundwater samples were collected and analysed by multivariate statistics, irrigation indices, and health risk assessment for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon during 2023 and 2024. The physicochemical parameters and heavy metals (Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, and Cu) are considered in this analysis. The results of multivariate statistics and hydrogeochemical analysis affirm that total dissolved solids (TDS), calcium (Ca2+), magnesium (Mg2+), and potassium (K+) have controlled the hydrochemistry of the RD. Chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), and zinc (Zn) are beyond the permissible limit and cause significant impacts on human health. Evaporation and rock-water interaction are the primary hydrochemical mechanisms controlling the hydrogeochemistry of the RD. The Piper diagram shows that CaMgHCO₃, CaMgSO₄, and NaCl are types of groundwater in the study area. The agriculture indices results confirmed that the groundwater in the RD affects crop productivity because the groundwater quality varies from very poor to unsuitable. The health risk assessment shows that infants and children are very likely to have carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic impacts due to the unauthorised industrial wastewater discharge and improper solid waste handling practices in the study area. Natural and anthropogenic activities are significantly affecting the groundwater quality in the study area. This is a pressing issue; addressing it with preventative actions to ensure the protection of groundwater sources would lead to the achievement of Goal 6 of the Sustainable Development Agenda (Clean Water and Sanitation). 

How to cite: Krishnamoorthy, L. and Lakshmanan, V. R.: Seasonal assessment of groundwater quality, hydrogeochemistry, and heavy metal pollution in groundwater at Ranipet District: employing multivariate statistics, agricultural indices, and health risk evaluation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1041, 2025.

EGU25-1334 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Groundwater Drought Dynamics and Vulnerability under Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain, China 

Zihan Ling, Longcang Shu, Dingkui Wang, Chengpeng Lu, and Bo Liu
Groundwater is a vital freshwater resource, supporting agriculture, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. However, increasing groundwater scarcity, exacerbated by overextraction, climate change, and land-use intensification, poses significant challenges, particularly in regions like the Sanjiang Plain, China. This study explores the propagation dynamics of groundwater drought and assesses its vulnerability to provide actionable insights into sustainable groundwater management.
The first part of this research investigates how meteorological drought propagates to groundwater systems using standardized indices (SGDI and SPI) and wavelet coherence analysis. Seasonal dynamics show that propagation times are shortest in summer, when irrigation intensifies the impact, and longest in winter. While irrigation buffers drought impacts in some seasons, it accelerates groundwater depletion in summer, particularly in areas with intensive agricultural activity. Nonirrigated regions display heightened drought sensitivity, reflecting the absence of adaptive mechanisms and exacerbating resource stress.
Building on this, we assessed groundwater drought vulnerability using a newly developed Groundwater Drought Vulnerability Index (GDVI). Combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Random Forest (RF) models, we evaluated nine factors influencing vulnerability, including groundwater exploitation, clay thickness, and precipitation. Future projections under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) reveal an alarming expansion of high-vulnerability areas, increasing from 30% during the baseline period to over 50% by mid-century. Drivers include rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and rapid paddy field expansion, further straining already limited groundwater reserves.
The integration of drought propagation dynamics with vulnerability assessments highlights the interplay between human activities, land use, and climatic factors. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive groundwater management strategies that address both immediate drought risks and long-term sustainability challenges. Future research should prioritize seasonal-scale assessments and numerical modeling to refine groundwater resource planning and drought mitigation efforts.

How to cite: Ling, Z., Shu, L., Wang, D., Lu, C., and Liu, B.: Groundwater Drought Dynamics and Vulnerability under Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1334, 2025.

EGU25-1359 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Harnessing Remote Sensing and AI for Groundwater Resource Mapping: A Study from the Varuna River Region, Uttar Pradesh 

Vikas Kumar, Saurabh Singh, and Ankit Kumar

Groundwater is an essential natural resource supporting all living beings in ecological and agricultural systems, especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP).  The IGP comprises shallow aquifers densely populated with agriculturally productive regions. However, in the past few decades, the area has been under water scarcity for several reasons, including climate change and mismanagement, affecting livelihoods. For all these reasons, an accurate assessment of groundwater availability and identifying groundwater potential zones (GWPZ) are crucial. The modern techniques of GWPZ identification, including AI/ML with remote sensing, play a vital role in determining the potential zones with high accuracy.  The objective of the present study is to determine the GWPZ around the Varuna River region of Uttar Pradesh, India, using remote sensing with machine learning models.


The present study tries to delineate potential areas of groundwater augmentation in the Varuna River area of Uttar Pradesh, India, by using remote sensing techniques supplemented with machine learning algorithms such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), Random Forest (RF). Satellite imagery, geospatial analysis, and predictive modeling assessed various hydrological, geological, and climatic parameters. With such state-of-the-art tools, this study tries to provide broad coverage of groundwater distribution, locating the region's possible areas, hence contributing toward sustainable water management strategies that will strengthen the communities of people depending on this precious resource.

We have classified the GWPZ into five different zones, ranging from very low, low, moderate, and high to very high zones. Compared to all models, the RF shows the highest predictive accuracy, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of 91%, whereas the GBM and SVM AUC curves show 88% and 84%, respectively. 

How to cite: Kumar, V., Singh, S., and Kumar, A.: Harnessing Remote Sensing and AI for Groundwater Resource Mapping: A Study from the Varuna River Region, Uttar Pradesh, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1359, 2025.

EGU25-2056 | Orals | HS8.2.5

From satellite to well: integrated techniques for understanding groundwater flow in a Cretaceous volcanic aquifer of South America 

Gustavo Barbosa Athayde, Lucas Garcia, Bianca do Amaral, Milena Olivi, and Camila de Vasconcelos Müller Athayde

This research presents an integration of techniques such as remote sensing, field geology, geophysical profiling, hydrodynamic monitoring, and chemical analysis of groundwater, to develop the conceptual hydrogeological model of a volcanic fractured aquifer. The research area has 8000 km2, is located in South America, specifically in the southern region of Brazil, the state of Paraná, and is called Paraná 3 Hydrographic Basin (BP3). In this hydrographic basin, 83% of the public supply is by the groundwater of the Serra Geral Aquifer System. The water balance was estimated by remote sensing. The average monthly recharge between 2001 and 2022 was estimated at 61 mm/month. October (105.3 mm), February (75.8 mm), and September (75.4 mm) are the months with the highest recharge while June (16.4 mm), April (40.1 mm), and July (40.2 mm) have the lowest potential. Recharge was also observed from a network of 36 monitoring wells. There is a delay between precipitation and the arrival of this volume in the aquifer, which varies between 30 and 120 days. The results obtained with the monitoring network were compared to the results of the GRACE satellite and showed excellent correlation. During the hydrodynamic monitoring period, the reflection of an intense drought in the groundwater storage was observed. This demonstrates the influence of regional-scale climate events (for example, El Niño and La Niña) on the aquifer recharge process. Two main types of Cretaceous volcanic rocks outcrop in BP3: basalts and volcanoclastics. These rocks present discontinuities whose origin is related to the brittle tectonics, and discontinuities whose origin is associated with the cooling of the rock. In the tectonic discontinuities, a transtensive system stands out, with an E-W direction, favorable to the circulation and storage of groundwater. This same direction is observed in acoustic and heat flow metter profiles, suggesting that the E-W planes are hydraulically active. The E-W direction also proved favorable for groundwater prospecting when analyzing the relationship between the direction of structural lineaments (from digital elevation models) and the production of tubular wells. The presence of volcanic breccias, associated with the proximity of contact zones between flows, is the most important geological (non-tectonic) proxy. The horizontality of these contacts allowed us to observe interferences between wells more than 200 meters apart. Groundwater flows up to 59 meters deep present waters with calcium bicarbonate type, with higher concentrations of nitrate and other micropollutants, when compared to flows that occur between 119 and 200 meters deep, whose chemical signature is sodium bicarbonate, in which sulfate, carbonate, and TDS increase with increasing flow depth. These deeper waters reach up to 17.000 years old in C14 ages. The integration of techniques allowed the aquifer characterization and development of the aquifer hydrogeological model. This activities can be repeated in other fractured aquifers to understand the hydrogeological characteristics of the geological formations. This knowledge will reduce exploratory risk and contribute to the sustainable management of groundwater in the BP3 region.

How to cite: Barbosa Athayde, G., Garcia, L., do Amaral, B., Olivi, M., and de Vasconcelos Müller Athayde, C.: From satellite to well: integrated techniques for understanding groundwater flow in a Cretaceous volcanic aquifer of South America, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2056, 2025.

EGU25-2518 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Natural processes and human impacts on groundwater: example of a Cretaceous volcanic aquifer in southern Brazil 

Camila de Vasconcelos Müller Athayde, Bianca do Amaral, Lucas Garcia, Milena Olivi, and Gustavo Barbosa Athayde

The Paraná 3 Hydrographic Basin (BP3) drains its waters into the reservoir of Itaipu Binacional, the largest electricity generator in the world. It is located in southern Brazil, on basic volcanic rocks (basalts ands volcanoclastic) from the Cretaceous age. This paper presents the results of 12 analytical campaigns of the Hidrosfera project, a partnership between the Hydrogeological Research Laboratory of the Federal University of Paraná (LPH-UFPR), Itaipu Binacional and Itaipu Parquetec, where water samples are collected quarterly from 42 tubular wells that supply the 29 municipalities of BP3, among the main municipalities being Foz do Iguaçu, Cascavel, Toledo and Guaíra. Electrical conductivity, temperature, pH, STD, dissolved oxygen, ORP, alkalinity, nitrate, nitrite, ammoniacal nitrogen, phosphate, and acidity are analyzed in the field. At the LPH (Hydrogeological Research Laboratory), complementary analyses are carried out using titrators, spectrophotometry and ICP-OES. BP3 has an area of ​​8,000 km² and has different chemical signatures depending on the flow depth. The calcium bicarbonate chemical type predominates in flows up to 59 meters deep. In these wells, the oxygen and deuterium results are superimposed on the local meteoric line, indicating a short residence time. In this shallower flow, alteration of ferromagnesian minerals predominates. Concentrations of calcium, magnesium, nitrate, chloride, potassium, phosphate, silica, strontium, and dissolved CO2 are higher when compared to flow depths greater than 119 meters. Micropollutants such as atrazine, DEA, and nicotine also occur more frequently in shallow flows (<59 m). At this depth, the statistical correlation between nitrate (NO3-), phosphate (PO42-), and potassium (K), highlighting the possible source of “NPK fertilizers” as the origin of this contamination. The results of nitrogen isotope analyses suggest sources related to fertilizers and/or manure/sewage. The source from organic soil is also a hypothesis for some sampled wells. These sources are consistent with the land use at BP3, where agricultural use predominates, followed by pasture and urban areas. Wells with deeper water flows (>119 meters deep) have sodium bicarbonate and sodium carbonate waters. There is a tendency for pH, electrical conductivity, STD, temperature, alkalinity, sodium, arsenic, sulfate, fluorine, and vanadium to increase with increasing depth of the groundwater flow. In these deeper flows, processes related to cation exchange in the aquifer predominate, and C14 ages reach 17,000 years. Considering that BP3 has wells with excellent production (above 220 m3h-1), used for public supply, contaminants in the groundwater, even if below the guideline values, are a warning sign for local water security. Wells with contamination evidence should attempt to manage land use and occupation, seeking to delimit capture zones and regulate the land use in these areas. In areas where the aquifer has deeper circulation with more mineralized waters, strategic actions such as artificial recharge will prevent the total exploitation of the resource (unsustainable mining of the aquifer).

How to cite: de Vasconcelos Müller Athayde, C., do Amaral, B., Garcia, L., Olivi, M., and Barbosa Athayde, G.: Natural processes and human impacts on groundwater: example of a Cretaceous volcanic aquifer in southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2518, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2518, 2025.

Irrigation accounts for a major proportion of human water usage, exerting significant impacts on the natural environment and regional climate in inland arid basins. Groundwater overextraction and agricultural irrigation can drastically alter the water distribution in terrestrial systems, with potential impacts on hydrological processes. To better understand these risks and improve water resource regulation in inland arid basins, a land surface model was employed to investigate the impact of different groundwater overextraction ratios and irrigation efficiencies on hydrological processes in the Heihe River Basin during 2015-2020. The model integrated daily irrigation water use data that were estimated through the combination of satellite data and machine learning. The results showed a rationality of irrigation water use data between the inter-annual variation of estimated irrigation data and government reported data. When irrigation water was only withdrawn from the surface, it effectively increased evapotranspiration and soil moisture, with little impact on water table depth. However, the groundwater balance was seriously impaired when groundwater was extracted for irrigation, increasing water table depth (32.6%) and depleting groundwater storage throughout the study period.

How to cite: Xie, Z., Yang, H., and Jia, B.: Impact of groundwater overextraction and agricultural irrigation on hydrological processes in an inland arid basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2749, 2025.

Under anoxic redox conditions dissolved nitrate in groundwater can be converted microbially into N2. However, the lack of microbial available organic and inorganic electron donors such as Fe(II) or dissolved organic carbon may lead to insufficient denitrification in aquifers and nitrate concentrations above the drinking water limit of 50 mg/L are often observed. In view of the increasing drinking-water scarcity associated with climate change and the continuously high nitrate concentrations in near-surface aquifers, it is urgently necessary and prudent to develop practicable and cost-effective methods to reduce nitrate to N2.

Faced with the persisting nitrate pollution in groundwater, we want to develop a new cost-effective in-situ remediation technology by hydrogen/methane coupled denitrification. We think that the microbial stimulation with water soluble gases may have several advantages to former artificial injection experiments using methanol and acetate as electron donors.

The first results are intended to fill the knowledge gap on the influence of methane (CH4) as electron donor on denitrification. We hypothesize that theinjection of the water soluble electron donor CH4 into groundwater may significantly enhance the rate of nitrate consumption by activation of denitrifying chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms that are already present in groundwater.

Here we show the results of a methane injection experiment into a 2D-flow tank with a length of 6 m. Isotopic and concentration measurements were performed along the flow direction and with a high depth-resolution of approximately up to 5 cm. Concentration profiles and the stable isotope composition of methane (δ13C) and nitrate (δ15N) linked with oxygen concentrations shed light on the methane coupled denitrification potential in the model aquifer. Our injection results demonstrate that methane can be sufficiently injected by the horizontal well into the model aquifer. Methane concentrations of up to 1,06 mmol/L were detected at different depths and up to a flow distance of 3 m from the injection well. Moreover, we found some isotopic evidence that nitrate is reduced to N2 or N2O with nitrite as intermediate. Nitrate concentrations decreased from around 0,89 mmol/L to 0,58 mmol/L at the outflow of the tank and decreased within the 2D-flow tank exactly there, where we observed an isotopic shift in methane to heavier (less negative) values.

How to cite: Seeholzer, A., Wunderlich, A., and Einsiedl, F.: In-situ treatment of nitrate polluted groundwater by chemoautotrophic denitrification: flow-through tank experiments with methane as electron donor, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3469, 2025.

EGU25-3824 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Developing an in-situ monitoring system for groundwater recharge flux, nitrate and DOC concentrations 

Christof Huebner, Heinke Paulsen, Barbara Herbstritt, Florenz König, and Markus Weiler

The contamination of aquifers by polluted recharge from agricultural areas remains a major danger to water resources. But continuous observations are limited due to a lack of adequate monitoring systems.  So far, commercial UV-Vis spectrometers have been used to continuously monitor dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate levels in surface waters and in water treatment facilities. While commercial UV-Vis spectrometers have been combined with suction cups to measure in-situ the nitrate concentration of soil water, this solution is costly and difficult to operate. Instead, we are developing a robust, compact, and user-friendly in-situ system that provides real-time data on drainage water quantity and quality like dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate concentration, electrical conductivity, and water temperature. All system components undergo rigorous laboratory testing, and initial prototypes are currently being installed and continuously operated under selected agricultural areas below the rooting zone.

 

In our system, we use a passive system with fiber glass wicks to quantify the amount of drainage water present. The wicks draw water from the soil at field capacity, eliminating the requirements for pumps as required by suction cups and avoiding saturation commonly found in free draining lysimeters. The extraction area and the length of the horizontal stainless-steel rod that holds the wicks provide enough coverage to average the spatial variability in typical vegetation patterns beneath agricultural fields. The quantity of drainage water is measured using a specifically developed 3D-printed tipping bucket system.

 

In addition to measuring drainage water quantity, our system will evaluate in-situ water quality. Parameters measured include electrical conductivity, temperature, as well as the concentration of DOC and nitrate. We have developed a fluorescence system to detect DOC concentrations in a small flow-through cuvette connected to the wicks. We are in the process of inventing an LED based optical sensor that detects nitrate absorption in the UV-C range, instead of employing costly UV/Vis spectrometers with xenon lamps to measure the complete spectrum. Preliminary tests indicate that determining nitrate concentration from groundwater samples is possible using absorbance at a wavelength of 235 nm. A calibration with standard solutions shows a linear relationship between concentration and absorption with a R2 of 0.99 for concentrations between 0 and 100 mg N/l. To adapt the system for analyzing the soil water solution, a combined sensor for nitrate, DOC and turbidity is needed to correct the nitrate absorption for interfering high concentrations of DOC and turbidity. We will discuss the overall system, its performance and preliminary results from a field deployment.

How to cite: Huebner, C., Paulsen, H., Herbstritt, B., König, F., and Weiler, M.: Developing an in-situ monitoring system for groundwater recharge flux, nitrate and DOC concentrations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3824, 2025.

EGU25-4461 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Development of a 3D geological model of the island of La Palma (Canary Islands) to improve the management of the groundwater resources 

Carlos Baquedano-Estévez, Jorge Martínez-León, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Jon Jiménez, Juan Carlos Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Sustainable management of water resources in insular aquifers is a major challenge due to the special vulnerability of these territories to climate change. Therefore, it is very important to develop tools that help to understand the water resources of these regions. Currently, 3D geological models provide data on the geometric properties of geological bodies, allowing the inference of volumes and the availability of their water resources for exploitation. Additionally, 3D models allow the development of numerical groundwater flow models, providing valuable geoscientific information. This work has developed the first 3D geological model of the volcanic island of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain) using the GeoModeller software. The code uses surface and subsurface geological data and then applies a geostatistical interpolation algorithm, cokriging to obtain the 3D model. ArcGIS has also been used for geographic information management. The information sources used have been the Digital Terrain Model of the island, surface geological maps, geological cross-sections, and lithological data from hydraulic works. In order to obtain a coherent 3D model, it was necessary to define the formations of the model, reclassifying and unifying the aforementioned information. The data were distributed in different geological maps and databases, encoded in different formats and transcribed in various geological classification schemes. This is relevant because the calculation by cokriging requires the coherent definition of the formations involved in it, as well as a hierarchy between them. The geological model obtained covers the entire island of La Palma, both the emerged surface and the underwater zone, down to a depth of 3km below sea level. The model includes a hydrogeological sequence of nine formations that represent the main volcanic edifices and the most important geological and hydrogeological structures of the island, including rifts, giant landslides, and perched and semi-confined aquifers. This 3D geological model will allow the development of the first hydrogeological and geothermal model of the island. This methodology can be exported to the rest of the Canary Islands, being key to improving knowledge of the island's aquifers and developing management strategies for different climate change scenarios.

How to cite: Baquedano-Estévez, C., Martínez-León, J., Marazuela, M. Á., Jiménez, J., Santamarta, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Development of a 3D geological model of the island of La Palma (Canary Islands) to improve the management of the groundwater resources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4461, 2025.

EGU25-5322 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Estimation of Spatial Distribution of Long-term Groundwater Recharge Variability over Ethiopia 

Mekuanent Muluneh Finsa and Jiří Bruthans

Groundwater recharge is a critical component of sustainable water management, especially in Ethiopia, where rain-fed agriculture supports the livelihoods of most of the population. Despite its importance, comprehensive groundwater recharge estimates for the entire country remain limited, particularly given Ethiopia’s diverse climatic, topographic, and geological conditions. This study aims to evaluate the spatial distribution of long-term groundwater recharge across Ethiopia, focusing on the relationship between precipitation and total stream runoff and baseflow. The methodology integrates hydrograph separation techniques, regression models, and GIS-based analysis. Daily flow data from 139 gauging stations (1990–2010) were analyzed using a moving minima approach to separate baseflow from streamflow. Baseflow indices (BFI) were calculated, and regression models were developed to link mean long-term precipitation averaged over the catchment area to total runoff and baseflow across different geological and hydrological settings. Spatial variability was assessed using precipitation data from satellite-derived CHIRPS datasets, calibrated with ground-based observations. Additionally, relationships between BFI, geology, and topography were explored to understand the factors influencing recharge dynamics. The results reveal significant spatial variability in groundwater recharge, with regions of high precipitation and permeable geological formations exhibiting high baseflow contributions. Conversely, arid areas with impermeable substrates show weaker recharge and lower baseflow. The analysis demonstrates a strong correlation between precipitation and baseflow in favorable regions, highlighting precipitation as the primary driver of recharge, modulated by local geological and hydrological conditions. These findings underscore the importance of tailored, localized water management strategies for Ethiopia’s diverse hydrological conditions. They provide critical insights for improving water security, supporting sustainable groundwater utilization, and enhancing resilience in climate variability, particularly for the country’s rain-fed agricultural systems.

Key Words: Baseflow Index, groundwater Recharge, Long-term Precipitation, Ethiopia

 

Acknowledgments: This collaborative work is a part of the development aid project by the Czech Geological Survey No. ET-2023-006-RO-43040 (to K. Verner) entitled “Improving the quality of life by ensuring availability and sustainable management of water resources in Sidama Region and Gamo and Gofa Zones (Ethiopia)” financed by the Czech Republic through the Czech Development Agency.

How to cite: Finsa, M. M. and Bruthans, J.: Estimation of Spatial Distribution of Long-term Groundwater Recharge Variability over Ethiopia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5322, 2025.

EGU25-5911 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Managing the Roussillon aquifer by preparing for saltwater intrusion in a semi-arid coastal region 

Robin Voland, Philippe Renard, and Yvan Caballero

The Roussillon is a region in the south of France, bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The region is covered by an alluvial plain of about 800 km2 inland, which drains water from the eastern part of the Pyrenees. It is one of the driest regions of France with an average of 600 mm of rainfall per year over the last 20 years. It has recently suffered dry years, with a particularly low 250 mm of rainfall in 2023. The region's economy is mainly based on tourism and agriculture, both of which require water during spring and summer, which cannot be met by surface water alone and therefore relies heavily on the alluvial aquifer beneath it. This aquifer is composed of Quaternary sediments on top and thicker continental and marine Pliocene sediments below. The system has generally high permeability and has been well described by Dall'Alba (2023) using borehole data and innovative inverse methods based on multipoint statistics. If the aquifer was artesian before anthropic exploitation, the water level has dropped considerably in the last 50 years and is close to sea level near the coast. The water level oscillates during the year, with a low in summer caused by the drought period and, more importantly, by the annual distribution of pumping. This low in summer, especially in the coastal part where the aquifer water level goes below sea level, can cause irreversible saltwater intrusion, damaging the water quality. We therefore try to reproduce the observed seasonal oscillation using a Modflow model and various types of data: climatic, piezometric levels including continuous time series, boreholes, river water presence observatory, remote sensing, pumping tests. We show how important it is to understand the different boundary conditions of the aquifer  to reproduce the seasonal trends, and how we can estimate the future behavior of the aquifer and better manage the resource by preventing saltwater intrusion.

How to cite: Voland, R., Renard, P., and Caballero, Y.: Managing the Roussillon aquifer by preparing for saltwater intrusion in a semi-arid coastal region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5911, 2025.

EGU25-6719 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Co-management of floods and droughts for the adaptation of agricultural water supply to climate change 

Anne Schultze, Lea Augustin, and Thomas Baumann

Climate change sees a shift from groundwater recharge to surface runoff caused by frequently occuring heavy precipitation events which exceed the infiltration capacity of the soil. Therefore, the impact of groundwater aquifers as buffer systems is reduced. At the same time the water demand for irrigation and cooling in agriculture is increasing. To compensate, water has to be transferred and ideally stored close to the demand to reduce costs for infrastructure. Even if water supply from major rivers which do not suffer from low water levels in dry periods is available peak demand and runoff are out of phase and peak volumes would require large water distribution systems. This is generally addressed by setting up large surface level basins with all their drawbacks (large spatial footprint, losses through evaporation, microbial contamination, stagnating waters).

One alternative adaptation strategy is to divert peak flow in surface waters and infiltrate directly into groundwaters to use them for storage during dry periods, as naturally occurring when high percolation rates are achieved. For this variant of managed aquifer recharge large aquifers with high hydraulic conductivity are required. Suitable sites have been identified using the multi-criteria decision analysis developed by [1]. Starting from the infiltration of flood peaks only, where the naturally occurring cycle of surplus water is reestablished, the concept can be extended to an active management of surface runoff while ensuring environmental sustainable flow regimes in the streams and small rivers.

Groundwater quality can be maintained using both pretreatment technologies and careful risk assessment of the catchment of the surface water. Analyses during the recent Vb weather condition in Bavaria indicate that the water quality is much better than expected and generally suitable for infiltration in phreatic aquifers.

The study site is located in Bavaria and well known for excellent soils for agriculture. Potatoes, sugar beets, and corn are the main crops grown with the potato being least resilient to increasing temperatures. Our site analysis showed a number of potential infiltration sites, and we identified several sources with enough excess water to sustain more than one dry year. The water is diverted from the river by pipelines and ditches and led to an infiltration basin surrounded by farmland. The small basin serves as a buffer for peak flow that would otherwise cause flooding. According to our hydrogeological models the infiltrated water will remain in the region and a long-term recharge of the aquifer seems possible. The favored setup will also reduce damages in downstream plots with higher groundwater levels caused by extended flooding.

The co-management of floods and low groundwater levels is applicable to streams and smaller rivers. Here, the risks in the catchment can be assessed and controlled. For water storage, natural storage in the underground is used. Based on our chemical analysis groundwater quality will benefit from the infiltration. Furthermore, the socio-economic aspects from farmers and other users are addressed and resilience for climate change is enhanced. 

[1] L. Augustin and T. Baumann: Suitability mapping for subsurface floodwater storage schemes, InterPore Journal 1(2), doi://10.69631/ipj.v1i2nr20.

How to cite: Schultze, A., Augustin, L., and Baumann, T.: Co-management of floods and droughts for the adaptation of agricultural water supply to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6719, 2025.

EGU25-7027 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Confined aquifers: a need for an adaptation of sustainability concepts 

Carlos Felipe Marin Rivera, Alexandre Pryet, and Julio Goncalves

Confined aquifers, distinguished by their large storage and long-term flow dynamics, are often overlooked in groundwater sustainability assessments and rely on frameworks developed for unconfined systems. Unlike unconfined aquifers, confined systems release water through the compressibility of the porous medium, without pore drainage. These properties lead to lower storativity and higher hydraulic diffusivity, resulting in different responses to hydraulic perturbations, such as pumping or recharge temporal variations. Addressing these differences is essential to develop tailored approaches for the sustainable management of confined aquifers, particularly in the context of balancing water supply for different competing demands with the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of abstraction. 

We develop a framework for the sustainable management of confined aquifers based on numerical models over synthetic cross sections of multi-layer flow systems. We explore the fundamental differences between confined and unconfined aquifers, particularly in terms of their hydraulic behaviour, response time to hydraulic perturbations, and the interactions with surrounding hydrogeological units. This modelling study also illustrates how confined aquifers indirectly interact with unconfined systems and surface water systems, through their connection via confining layers. 

A critical aspect of this work involves understanding the transient response of aquifers, which is governed by their hydraulic diffusivity and described by the concept of response time. Diffusivity governs the rate at which hydraulic disturbances propagate, and the response time describes the time required for the aquifer to reach a new equilibrium. Existing analytical formulations highlight the distinct behaviour of confined aquifers, particularly their faster response times compared to unconfined systems. However, for large-scale confined or mixed systems, response time scales may approach or even exceed those of unconfined aquifers with similar hydraulic properties and, generally, smaller extension. This underscores the importance of a proper delimitation of aquifer boundaries in the assessment of their response times. 

In practice, water sustainability policies are inherently scoped within site-specific areas and timeframes. Today, these policies must address increasing pressures from population growth, climate change, surface water quality issues, and other contributing factors. Groundwater models, which support management decisions, should include these factors through accurate conceptualizations of hydrogeological systems, evaluations of their response times, and scenario analyses. Through the adaptation of sustainability concepts for confined and mixed aquifer systems, this study contributes to the development of a framework that will support groundwater management strategies for confined aquifers and highlights their role as a valuable resource for long-term adaptation, emphasizing the need to protect and optimize their use in response to environmental and societal challenges.  

How to cite: Marin Rivera, C. F., Pryet, A., and Goncalves, J.: Confined aquifers: a need for an adaptation of sustainability concepts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7027, 2025.

EGU25-7274 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Evaluating surface water and groundwater interaction at a sluice system via tritium and stable water isotope analysis 

Jessica Landgraf, Liza-Marie Beckers, Michael Schluesener, Arne Wick, Lars Duester, and Axel Schmidt

A comprehensive understanding of surface water and groundwater interaction is crucial to prevent overexploitation and contamination of groundwater. This is especially important for large rivers with installations from hydraulic engineering, such as weirs or sluices, because the interaction may be further intensified by these structures. Stable water isotopes and tritium, being part of the water molecule itself, serve as versatile natural or anthropogenic tracers, here suitable to evaluate water compartment interactions.

Since 2020 we conducted long-term monitoring of tritium and stable water isotopes at a sluice on the Moselle River in Lehmen, Germany. The study site contains several groundwater wells parallel to the river bank with one well slightly further distant to the river for reference of groundwater unaffected by surface water. The study aims to identify and quantify the surface water and groundwater interaction in a highly modified system using stable water isotope and tritium analysis of the according water compartments. The Moselle River water contains elevated tritium concentrations of up to ~400 TU induced by the French nuclear power plant Cattenom. Hence, tritium can be used as an indicator of surface water infiltration. Additionally, hydrological on-site parameters as well as water levels and further chemical parameters like major ions, trace elements and organic micropollutants were monitored to allow for a more holistic assessment of water compartments and identification of further suitable tracers for surface water and groundwater interaction.

We estimated transit times in conjunction with surface water proportions in the various groundwater wells. The transit times varied considerably when estimations were based on surface water grab samples, resulting in 1 to 12 months of travel time and low correlations coefficients (mean: 0.39). This could be attributed to the high variability of tritium concentrations in the surface water caused by random pulse emissions. With monthly composited samples for surface water transit times of 3 to 5 months and higher correlation coefficients (mean: 0.66) were calculated. Estimations using stable water isotopic composition resulted in travel times of 4 to 6 months for both grab and monthly composited surface water samples with slightly higher correlation coefficients for composite samples (grab-mean: 0.79, composite-mean: 0.86). Furthermore, the surface water proportion in the influenced groundwater wells was estimated using both tritium and stable water isotopes. Both tracers indicate a large surface water proportion in the groundwater wells, highlighting the significance of mixing processes induced by the impounded surface water of the investigated sluice site. Estimated proportions of surface water range from 66 to 74% with deuterium and 73 to 84% with tritium as the utilized tracer. As the tracers overlap at around 73 to 74% it can be assumed that both tracers deliver valid, comparable results. The observed relationship is also supported via major ion composition of the water compartments.

In conjunction with further hydrological parameters the analyses reveal elevated surface water proportions of at least 66% and travel times of 3 to 6 months. Further analysis of additional tracers may support the results gained via stable water isotope and tritium analysis. 

How to cite: Landgraf, J., Beckers, L.-M., Schluesener, M., Wick, A., Duester, L., and Schmidt, A.: Evaluating surface water and groundwater interaction at a sluice system via tritium and stable water isotope analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7274, 2025.

EGU25-8126 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Analytical Estimation of Maximum Safe Pumping Rate in Sloping Confined and Unconfined Coastal Aquifers 

Jiazhi Sun, Huiqiang Wu, Jina Yin, and Chunhui Lu

Coastal aquifers with sloping geometry (e.g., an inclined aquifer bed or confining layer) are common worldwide, yet most analytical models for pumping-induced seawater intrusion have assumed a horizontal setting (Lu et al., 2016). Building on our previously developed steady-state analytical solution for sloping unconfined coastal aquifers (Sun et al., 2023), this study extends the approach to both unconfined and confined aquifers under a fixed-flux inland boundary condition. Specifically, single potential theory is employed for unconfined aquifers, and finite Fourier cosine transforms are used for confined coastal aquifers. The proposed analytical solutions, corrected by an empirical factor, are validated against synthetic data generated by SEAWAT-based numerical simulations, demonstrating excellent agreement.

For unconfined aquifers, a positive sloping angle (i.e., higher aquifer bed toward inland) significantly increases the maximum safe pumping rate (MSPR) compared to an aquifer with a horizontal base. For instance, a slope of 0.01 yields a 42.6% increase in MSPR, whereas a slope of -0.01 leads to a 48.4% decrease relative to the horizontal case. In confined aquifers, the MSPR is governed by the slope of the upper confining layer and the angle difference between the upper and lower confining layers. A lower slope of the upper confining layer and a smaller angle difference lead to a higher head gradient, which suppresses seawater intrusion and thus enhances MSPR. For example, for an upper sloping angle of 0.05 combined with an angle difference of -0.01, as well as for an upper sloping angle of -0.01 combined with an angle difference of 0.01, the MSPR increases by 16.3% and decreases by 29.2%, respectively, in comparison to a horizontal aquifer.

These findings highlight that neglecting aquifer sloping geometry can introduce substantial errors in estimating MSPRs. Although the presented solutions offer a rapid assessment tool for pumping-induced seawater intrusion in sloping coastal aquifers, the flow field variations arising from inclined geometry and their implications for solute transport and biogeochemical reactions warrant further investigation, underscoring the need for ongoing research in their area.

Bibliography

Lu, C., Xin, P., Kong, J., Li, L., & Luo, J. (2016). Analytical solutions of seawater intrusion in sloping confined and unconfined coastal aquifers. Water Resources Research, 52(9), 6989–7004.

Sun, J., Wu, H., Yin, J., & Lu, C. (2023). Estimating the maximum safe pumping rate in sloping unconfined coastal aquifers. Water Resources Research, 59(9), e2023WR034675.

How to cite: Sun, J., Wu, H., Yin, J., and Lu, C.: Analytical Estimation of Maximum Safe Pumping Rate in Sloping Confined and Unconfined Coastal Aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8126, 2025.

EGU25-8806 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Modelling techniques for assessment of Managed Aquifer Recharge combined with water reuse 

Mina Yazdani, Peter van Thienen, and Ruud Bartholomeus

Future drying conditions coupled with increasing water demand are intensifying the pressure on groundwater systems. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) techniques in combination with water reuse could be valuable measures for mitigating water scarcity problems and promoting sustainable groundwater management. Various modelling methodologies are available to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of these measures in local to regional contexts, with distributed process-based groundwater simulation models being the most widely used for MAR assessments. However, MAR combined with water reuse lies at the interface between anthropogenic (urban) and natural water systems and must be embedded within a regional strategy on water resources management, focusing on feedbacks and interconnections within the entire system, which are crucial for identifying the propagation of effects and the investigation of trade-offs. Therefore, successful planning and implementation of these techniques in regional contexts require assessment tools that reflect this level of integration between multiple subsystems. Here we present an overview of the methodologies and modeling frameworks available for evaluating MAR combined with water reuse, with a primary focus on water quantity aspects. This includes the classification of the methodologies based on the purpose of application, phase of MAR analysis, and their characterization in terms of spatial and temporal scales and resolution, the types of processes included in the modeling frameworks, and the limitations of applicability of the methodologies, also presenting examples in literature. We further discuss the most effective methods—or combinations of methods—for modeling these interconnected systems.

How to cite: Yazdani, M., van Thienen, P., and Bartholomeus, R.: Modelling techniques for assessment of Managed Aquifer Recharge combined with water reuse, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8806, 2025.

EGU25-8893 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Robust decision-making for sustainable management of groundwater resources in unconsolidated aquifers using a multi-model ensemble approach incorporating hydrogeological uncertainty 

Saman Moghimi Benhangi, Ludovic Schorpp, Tania Stefania Agudelo Mendieta, Max Gustav Rudolph, Philippe Renard, Paul Franke, and Zhao Chen

Uncertainty in hydrogeological structures and properties has limited the effectiveness of traditional frameworks for aquifer characterization, groundwater monitoring and modelling in practical applications. How to properly deal with uncertainty is highly relevant for robust decision-making in sustainable management of groundwater resources, which are increasingly stressed between water use and climate change impacts for many drinking water supply sites worldwide that are strongly dependent on groundwater. Previous innovative studies, which rely strongly on the stochastic approach, are predominantly explored in synthetic and scientific cases, creating a gap in presenting how practical and efficient these frameworks can be at regional and local scales. In this work, we developed a holistic approach to better understand and manage uncertainties in hydrogeological structures and properties through groundwater flow modelling. We tested the developed approach for a local drinking water supply site in eastern Germany, which consists of a porous aquifer of glacial-fluvial unconsolidated sediments and is characterized by strong heterogeneity and anisotropy of its hydraulic properties. A large borehole dataset was analyzed to characterize the geological variability and form the basis for a detailed 3D subsurface model. Multiple subsurface structure realizations were generated using ArchPy to represent plausible hydrogeological interpretations of hydraulic conductivity and the groundwater flow dynamics were simulated using MODFLOW 6. The results highlight that hydrogeological uncertainty significantly affects simulated groundwater flow patterns and limits the reliability of deterministic models. The multi-model ensemble approach, incorporating probabilistic assessments, proved to be a robust framework for groundwater management in heterogeneous systems. More specifically, the results highlight the efficiency of the proposed approach to couple ArchPy with MODFLOW via FloPy to incorporate and acknowledge the propagated spatial uncertainty on simulated groundwater dynamics into a robust decision-making process of sustainable groundwater management. Furthermore, this research showed that a highly simplified or highly complex representation of hydraulic conductivity uncertainty almost equally leads to a less reliable and practical groundwater model. The study advances hydrogeological research by providing a practical approach to uncertainty in groundwater modelling that addresses some of the significant implications for sustainable water resource management and provides a framework that is transferable to similar systems facing challenges of aquifer variability and uncertainty.

How to cite: Moghimi Benhangi, S., Schorpp, L., Stefania Agudelo Mendieta, T., Gustav Rudolph, M., Renard, P., Franke, P., and Chen, Z.: Robust decision-making for sustainable management of groundwater resources in unconsolidated aquifers using a multi-model ensemble approach incorporating hydrogeological uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8893, 2025.

EGU25-8936 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) perspectives in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region of Italy in the context of climate change trends 

Muhammad Sufyan, Grazia Martelli, Pietro Teatini, and Daniele Goi

The Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region in northeastern Italy has experienced an imbalance in the hydrogeological system over the years, resulting in the lowering of groundwater levels. Reduced and erratic precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and increased abstraction have all contributed to the decline in piezometric levels in the Friuli Plain's phreatic aquifers. These changes in the hydrogeological system have resulted in a decrease in direct infiltration and an increase in the surface run-off and evapotranspiration rate, thus affecting both the surface and groundwater resources in the region. The groundwater of the region is also polluted by nitrate content, whose concentrations in some parts of the region exceed the threshold value (50 mg/l as per Italian legislation) for potable use. To address declining water resources and improve underground storage of high-quality surface waters, three recharge sites (Carpeneto, Mereto di Tomba, and Sammardenchia), in the upper Friuli plain have been suggested for MAR practice. MAR potential in this pre-Alpine region is characterized by the availability of high-quality surface waters (primarily from rivers), a highly permeable thick aquifer system, and numerous existing structures such as pits and large-diameter wells. The present study aims to investigate the effect of MAR on groundwater levels and quality through an infiltration pond at Sammardenchia site. Modflow is applied to simulate the aquifer’s response to natural and artificial recharge through MAR by means of water from the nearby Ledra channel. The initial results show a positive effect of MAR on the groundwater levels at the local scale. The study further aims to simulate the solute transport and water quality changes resulting from the recharge operation, with the ultimate goal of predicting future hydrogeological variations in the aquifer system.

How to cite: Sufyan, M., Martelli, G., Teatini, P., and Goi, D.: Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) perspectives in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region of Italy in the context of climate change trends, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8936, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8936, 2025.

EGU25-9679 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Hybrid Managed Aquifer Recharge – Effects of pretreatment on biodegradation of trace organic contaminants   

Felicia Linke, Magdalena A. Knabl, and Jörg E. Drewes

Pressure on freshwater resources is increasing due to growing water demand for agricultural, industrial and domestic use. The effects of climate change, such as longer periods of drought, further increase water demand. In addition to pressure on water quantity, water quality is affected by pollution, including groundwater resources. Therefore, sustainable and resilient approaches for groundwater use are needed.

Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can secure water supplies by expanding the amount of water storage available. At the same time, MAR can improve water quality through the filtering effect of soil and groundwater. However, trace organic contaminants (TOrCs) are not sufficiently attenuated by biodegradation processes during subsurface travel. Thus, an adequate pretreatment may be necessary to ensure the best possible use of the treatment effects of MAR.

As a first step, this study investigates the effects of different pretreatments on the removal of TOrCs during MAR. Columns mimicking the groundwater passage receiving differently treated wastewater qualities containing TOrCs allowed for a detailed monitoring of water quality parameters such as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved oxygen (DO) along the depth of the columns. The microbial community that adapts to the different substrate conditions is expected to influence the potential for biodegradation of TOrCs.

The experimental setup consists of three saturated columns (1.6 m long, 0.15 m diameter) filled with technical sand. The sand has been exposed to ozonated wastewater treatment plant effluent for 2 years prior to the experiment and therefore has an existing biofilm. The columns receive three different wastewater qualities: (1) secondary effluent + cloth media filter, (2) secondary effluent + coagulation + ultrafiltration, (3) secondary effluent + cloth media filtration + ozonation + biologically activated carbon (BAC) filtration. Feed waters are continuously infiltrated at a flow rate of 9 ml/min. Water samples were taken along the columns at different depths (0.1 m, 0.3 m, 0.6 m below the sand surface). Samples were analyzed for water quality parameters such as DOC, UV absorption, 3D-excitation-emission spectra (3D-EEM), and 32 indicator TOrCs. In-situ DO measurements (DP-PSt3, PreSens GmbH, Germany) were conducted at depths of 0.1 m, 0.2 m, 0.3 m, 0.4 m, 0.6 m and 0.9 m below the sand surface.

As expected, water qualities differ as a function of pre-treatment, e.g. DOC concentrations are highest for the column receiving cloth media filtered water and lowest for the column receiving ozonated water. First results of TOrCs measurement show lowest concentrations in the influent for the column receiving ozonated water, which is expected given the high reactivity of ozone with TOrCs. TOrCs in the other two columns show differences, for example, benzotriazole and venlafaxine are more efficiently removed in the column fed with cloth media filtered water (64 % and 61 %) compared to the UF treated water (37 % and 15 %). A better understanding of biodegradation of TOrCs can help to implement customized pretreatments of MAR at larger scale. 

How to cite: Linke, F., Knabl, M. A., and Drewes, J. E.: Hybrid Managed Aquifer Recharge – Effects of pretreatment on biodegradation of trace organic contaminants  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9679, 2025.

EGU25-10554 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Predicting Decadal Groundwater Levels in Brandenburg: Deep Learning Approaches for Sustainable Management 

Stefan Broda, Stefan Kunz, Maria Wetzel, Lena Katharina Schmidt, and Angela Hermsdorf

The federal state of Brandenburg is characterized by over 3,000 lakes and hundreds of kilometres of rivers and thus is one of Germany's most water-rich regions, but also ranks among the country's driest states in terms of precipitation. Climate change exacerbates this situation, with potential negative effects on groundwater resources: estimations under the RCP8.5 emission scenario predict a 10–20% reduction in total runoff for the period 2031–20601. Moreover, decadal groundwater level monitoring data from Brandenburg revealed that extremely low groundwater levels occur more often. Thus, careful management of water demand is crucial, especially given that over 90% of the region's drinking water supply relies on groundwater.

Decadal groundwater level predictions are fundamental to manage demands and allow to identify areas particularly at risk of extremely low groundwater levels. Data-driven methods, especially deep learning (DL) approaches, have recently demonstrated potential for predicting groundwater levels with high accuracy and are suitable for forecasting across larger regions where numerical flow models are not applicable.

In this study, DL models were established to generate decadal predictions for groundwater monitoring wells, based on data of Brandenburg’s broad groundwater monitoring network. After preprocessing the time series data, including aggregation to weekly resolution, the dataset comprises 650 groundwater monitoring wells with consistent records dating back to at least 1980. For these monitoring wells, DL models were implemented and trained with data from different meteorological variables data as input parameters. The predictive performance of the DL models was then systematically evaluated. Groundwater monitoring wells with high predictive accuracy (NSE > 0.7) were used to calculate decadal forecasts based on the decadal climate predictions provided by the German Weather Service.

These decadal predictions enable spatial assessments of groundwater level trends over the next decade relative to the 1991–2020 reference period. The results offer valuable insights into mid-term future groundwater level developments in Brandenburg, supporting data-driven decision-making for sustainable groundwater resource management.

1DWD (2019): Klimareport Brandenburg, 1. Auflage, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, Deutschland, 44 pp., ISBN 978-3-88148-518-0

How to cite: Broda, S., Kunz, S., Wetzel, M., Schmidt, L. K., and Hermsdorf, A.: Predicting Decadal Groundwater Levels in Brandenburg: Deep Learning Approaches for Sustainable Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10554, 2025.

EGU25-11275 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Integrating thermal and ecological management of urban aquifers – an example from Berlin, Germany 

Kathrin Menberg, Fabien Glatting, Mohammad Reza Hajizadeh Javaran, Jens Bölscher, Marielle Geppert, Hannes Hemmerle, Peter Bayer, Lukas Pohl, Sandra Wittig, Gerold Janssen, Verena Fehlenberg, Christian Schweer, Felix Grimmeisen, and Philipp Blum

Aquifers under urban areas are highly impacted by human activity and altered in terms of thermal, chemical, and also ecological conditions. In particular for ecological conditions, the causes and implications of changes in faunal communities for groundwater management and use are not yet fully understood. At the same time, large and dense urban clusters, such as the city of Berlin, Germany, rely on water supply from groundwater and other sources within their city limits. 

The aim of the CHARMANT project is therefore to develop a groundwater management approach specifically designed for the complex, multifaceted conditions in the urban underground that incorporates assessment of groundwater ecosystems and thermal management of the subsurface. Long-term changes in the thermal subsurface conditions are evaluated based on repeated measurements of temperature-depth profiles, which show an increase in warming down to 100m. Likewise, warming near the surface (20 m below ground level) is spreading from the city centre towards the suburban areas, due to increased surface sealing, subsurface infrastructure and climate change. Frequent occurrence of groundwater fauna, i.e. stygophile and stygobiont species, is found to be limited to locations in the Berlin-Warsaw glacial valley in central Berlin or in the vicinity of surface waters (approx. 11 % of all measurement wells). At the same time, some of the regularly sampled wells exhibit rare mass events with hundreds or even thousands of fauna individuals, which are not linked to changes in abiotic groundwater parameters. Also, for the specific case of Berlin, occurrence groundwater fauna appears to be constraint mostly due to low contents of dissolved oxygen linked to natural hydrogeological conditions. Overall, these heterogeneous conditions make quantitative assessment of the ecological status based on existing approaches difficult.

The thermal state of the subsurface of Berlin is further assessed by thermo-hydraulic modelling that aims at identifying areas with similar groundwater conditions, so-called archetypes, whilst taking groundwater temperature as a proxy for overall anthropogenic impact. In the future, these groundwater archetypes will be linked to chemical conditions, e.g. presence of typical urban contaminants, as well as the ecological status, e.g. presence of specific groundwater fauna, in order to obtain groundwater use types. These use types represent 3D, spatially-resolved conceptual models, that facilitate the integration of aspects of spatial planning above the surface as well as different regulatory frameworks. Furthermore, the project aims at using the simplified representation of complex subsurface processes in these archetypes for communicating groundwater management strategies and enhancing awareness and active participation of citizen and other stakeholders with the aim of minimizing conflicts of groundwater use.

How to cite: Menberg, K., Glatting, F., Hajizadeh Javaran, M. R., Bölscher, J., Geppert, M., Hemmerle, H., Bayer, P., Pohl, L., Wittig, S., Janssen, G., Fehlenberg, V., Schweer, C., Grimmeisen, F., and Blum, P.: Integrating thermal and ecological management of urban aquifers – an example from Berlin, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11275, 2025.

EGU25-11281 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

How hydrogeological and geochemical approaches can contribute to the effective management of water resources in a confined aquifer? Example of the Beauce multilayer aquifer system (Centre region, France) 

Adrien Claveau, Christelle Marlin, Julie Lions, Louis Alus, Véronique Durand, Eric Lasseur, and Justine Briais

Confined aquifers, generally more protected from anthropogenic pressure, present potential alternative water resources of good quality to surface and subsurface water resources. However, their exploitation, potentially affecting the resource in a long-term way, requires a good understanding of their functioning to ensure their sustainable management. In order to gain some understanding of the processes involved in confined aquifers, we present here results obtained from the multilayered Beauce limestone aquifer, in the Centre region of France. This aquifer is already heavily exploited for drinking water supply and agriculture.

The developed methodology implies 1) a new interpretation of potential recharge areas from the newly acquired aquifer geometry through geological data analysis, 2) an extensive analysis of the piezometric and geochemical (major and trace elements) and isotopic groundwater database, and 3) new data obtained from groundwater sampled from a nested piezometer plateform.

The main results are synthesized below:

  • Several potential recharge zone have been identified. The first one corresponds to a fault zone that could allow exchanges between the surface, the Beauce limestone and deeper aquifers. The second one is a local outcrop of the limestone caused by an anticline. The third one corresponds to local, diffuse recharge from the unconfined water table where the overlying aquitard become thinner or non-existent;
  • The Beauce limestone formation comprises two main aquifer sub-units, locally separated, when existing, by a semi-permeable aquitard. The two sub-aquifers nevertheless may have distinct geochemical signatures, even though they are largely interconnected;
  • Piezometric data indicate that the groundwater regionally flows from east to west, originating in an area where the aquifer does not outcrop and indicating indirect recharge from another aquifer;
  • Dissolved inorganic carbon isotopes (13C, 14C) show an apparent ageing of the groundwater in the opposite direction to the flow, with more ancient groundwater upstream (up to 30 ka B.P.) and younger groundwater downstream (< 10 ka B.P.). Depleted groundwater in 2H and 18O, in agreement with the radiocarbon residence time, confirm the paleoclimatic effect recorded in the confined Beauce limestone aquifer although the confined aquifer is relatively shallow (< 150 m deep).

These results allow to better understand the hydrodynamic behaviour of this aquifer by highlighting potential recharge zones, groundwater origin as well as the possible exchanges between inter- and intra-aquifer systems. Combining all the available information (geological, hydrogeological, chemical and isotopic) is thus essential for establishing robust conceptual model of multi-layer confined systems and will provide useful information to managers for the sustainable management of the resource.

How to cite: Claveau, A., Marlin, C., Lions, J., Alus, L., Durand, V., Lasseur, E., and Briais, J.: How hydrogeological and geochemical approaches can contribute to the effective management of water resources in a confined aquifer? Example of the Beauce multilayer aquifer system (Centre region, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11281, 2025.

EGU25-11320 | Orals | HS8.2.5

The Karst Vadose Zone as an Important Water Storage System 

Martin Sauter, Ulrich Maier, Peter Dietrich, Torsten Noffz, Alireza Kavousi, Tobias Geyer, and Irina Engelhardt

Recent field and modelling investigations have shown the karst vadose zone to act as an important factor in the assessment of available water resources, particularly in regions, characterised by thick unsaturated zones. In particular, in semi-arid regions of the Eastern Mediterranean, very wet years have shown to have prolonged effects of elevated groundwater discharge as well as elevated groundwater levels, compared to long-term average hydraulic conditions.

The above prolonged storage effects can generally be attributed either to delayed groundwater discharge or the sustained infiltration processes in the matrix of the vadose zone.

The research focussed on the analysis of the geohydrological processes in the field, i.e. the analysis of spring discharge and groundwater hydrograph records, both for humid-temperate as well as semi-arid conditions, the analysis of water tracers (Krypton an T/He; trace organics) as well as the coupled modelling of saturated / unsaturated flow, employing a double-continuum approach (HydroGeoSphere).

Our findings show that in less maturely karstified aquifer systems, the contribution of delayed seepage from the vadose zone can reach up to 40% of total spring discharge which is of particular importance for regions with prolonged drought periods, expected for semi-arid environments. The analysis of the tracer information allowed the discrimination of the source of the delayed discharge, in particular Krypton tracer analysis demonstrated the extended residence time of infiltrating water in the vadose zone. The quantification of the partitioning between rapid recharge and slow vadose seepage proved to be a challenge.

How to cite: Sauter, M., Maier, U., Dietrich, P., Noffz, T., Kavousi, A., Geyer, T., and Engelhardt, I.: The Karst Vadose Zone as an Important Water Storage System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11320, 2025.

EGU25-11564 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

A Dynamic Framework for Quantifying Groundwater Resilience to Rainfall Variability: Integrating Engineering and Ecological Resilience Perspectives 

Akhil Jnanadevan, Ishita Bhatnagar, and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya

Groundwater systems play a vital role in maintaining water supply during periods of climate extremes such as droughts. However, the decreased recharge, coupled with the increased pumping rates, interferes with the natural feedback mechanism of the aquifer system, potentially pushing them beyond their resilience thresholds and causing regime shifts. Understanding and quantifying groundwater resilience is essential for evaluating how these systems maintain stability and adaptability under stress. Historically, resilience has been viewed through two lenses: engineering resilience, which emphasizes the speed of recovery to a single equilibrium, and ecological resilience, which focuses on the system’s ability to absorb disturbances before shifting to a different state. The latter approach acknowledges multiple stable states and the possibility of regime shifts. While both perspectives are essential, no existing framework has integrated them to provide a comprehensive understanding of groundwater resilience. This study presents the Endurance, Recovery, and Resilience (ERR) framework, which combines engineering and ecological resilience definitions to assess the stability and adaptability of groundwater systems. We define resilience as the ability of a system to endure disturbances and return to its original stable state, capturing both recovery and adaptability dynamics. We apply the ERR framework to seasonal groundwater levels and rainfall time series of 19 subbasins in the Ganga Basin. Using Wavelet Transform Decomposition, we isolate rainfall-induced groundwater fluctuations and calculate their magnitude of oscillation as Groundwater Sensitivity to Rainfall (GSR). This GSR time series serves as the state variable for computing the Dynamic Resilience Indicator (DRI), which reflects the groundwater system's states and resilience under different conditions. Our findings reveal that groundwater systems exhibit multiple stable states and adaptive regime shifts in response to rainfall variability. Subbasins with high resilience show better adaptability to rainfall changes, whereas low resilience subbasins display limited response, suggesting a need for more tailored management strategies. The ERR framework provides a robust methodology for assessing groundwater resilience, with broader implications for adaptive management across environmental systems. By integrating both engineering and ecological perspectives, this framework offers valuable insights for understanding and managing groundwater resources amidst the challenges posed by climate variability.

How to cite: Jnanadevan, A., Bhatnagar, I., and Dhanya, C. T.: A Dynamic Framework for Quantifying Groundwater Resilience to Rainfall Variability: Integrating Engineering and Ecological Resilience Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11564, 2025.

EGU25-11658 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Integration of agricultural, hydrological and hydrogeological stressors into the modelling of groundwater used for drinking water extraction 

Robin Schwemmle, Jost Hellwig, Max Schmit, Julian Vahldiek, Markus Weiler, Julian Börner, Christian Sponagel, Elisabeth Angenendt, and Kerstin Stahl

Groundwater is Germany's dominant source of drinking water; in particular near-surface groundwater resources. Long-known pressures as well as emerging stressors such as unprecedented hydrological extremes, their related water quality issues and increased use competitions challenge the assessment of these resources' sustainability. More integrated modelling along with innovative model applications that go beyond climate impact model chain experiments are needed. As part of the funding measure BMBF LURCH, the StressRes project develops a coupled modelling approach that aims to assess stress on groundwater by way of specifically designed stress test model experiments. This contribution shows how the agro-economic model PALUD, the hydrological model RoGeR and the groundwater model MODFLOW are combined towards this task. In particular, we assess the challenges encountered in the case study area which encompasses several different drinking water protection areas in southwest Germany. The challenges include the two-way coupling of RoGeR and MODFLOW in the large catchment area that drains from the fissured mountain aquifer towards the alluvial valley aquifer recharging the aquifer at the foot of hillslopes as well as through rivers. The land use of the region is highly diverse and water quantity and quality need to consider crop rotations at small scales and irregular irrigation practices may affect the water balance. The underlying agro-economic decisions made in particular for the region-specific crops may affect nitrate leaching after drought events, which is one of the issues drinking water suppliers are facing. We present a baseline model along with the stress test scenarios that will be implemented.

How to cite: Schwemmle, R., Hellwig, J., Schmit, M., Vahldiek, J., Weiler, M., Börner, J., Sponagel, C., Angenendt, E., and Stahl, K.: Integration of agricultural, hydrological and hydrogeological stressors into the modelling of groundwater used for drinking water extraction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11658, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11658, 2025.

EGU25-11768 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Evaluating the impact of Flood-MAR on Groundwater Quality 

Nuria Ferrer, Paula Rodríguez-Escales, Carles Pérez-Castro, and Daniel Fernández

Sustainable groundwater management is crucial in arid and semi-arid regions, such as the Mediterranean, due to high water demand, irregular rainfall patterns, and limited surface water availability. Flood-Managed Aquifer Recharge (Flood-MAR) has emerged as an effective strategy for mitigating groundwater depletion in overdrawn aquifers. This approach utilizes surplus water from high-magnitude streamflow events, reservoir releases, or excess surface water deliveries, providing a unique method of managed aquifer recharge by harnessing sporadic water sources. While Flood-MAR has demonstrated positive effects on groundwater quantity, its impacts on water quality remain underexplored. During flood events, rivers collect runoff from impermeable surfaces, such as roads and industrial areas, potentially carrying contaminants like heavy metals. These pollutants, primarily originating from vehicles, pose risks to aquifer recharge quality during flood-driven recharge operations.

 

In this work, we evaluated the pollution risk to an aquifer during a high-magnitude streamflow event of the Llobregat River (Barcelona, Spain). Sampling was conducted in both the Llobregat River and a nearby piezometer to ensure that temporal changes in contaminant levels could be attributed to hydrological events rather than spatial variability. Rainwater samples were also collected at the site. Water quality was intensively monitored over the rainfall period (12 hours) and the following five days, characterizing hydrochemistry (anions and cations), heavy metals, and water isotopes. Preliminary results indicate higher contamination levels in the river, particularly regarding heavy metals, especially at the onset of the rainfall event. This increase was attributed to urban runoff from roads and industrial zones in the studied area. Hydrochemistry monitoring, along with water isotopes analysis, revealed that the high-magnitude streamflow event impacted the aquifer in two distinct phases. First, during the initial hours of the rainfall, the aquifer's water quality was affected, with a general increase in the concentrations of most monitored parameters. Second, two to three days after the event, the aquifer’s hydrochemistry was influenced by the upstream rainfall's impact on the catchment area. These findings suggest that, although the aquifer quality is affected, the impact of Flood-MAR on groundwater quality is not expected to be significantly critical.

How to cite: Ferrer, N., Rodríguez-Escales, P., Pérez-Castro, C., and Fernández, D.: Evaluating the impact of Flood-MAR on Groundwater Quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11768, 2025.

EGU25-11930 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Analyzing the Relationship between Electrical Consumption by Pumping and Water Induced Land Deformation to Understand Water Security 

Martin Maranon-Eguivar, Alfredo Duran, Rigel Rocha, and Fernando Jaramillo

Monitoring water security remains a significant challenge due to the complexity of the water cycle and the socio-hydrological drivers behind water consumption. Effective monitoring requires data on water use and availability, which are often difficult to obtain in large urban or semi-urban areas with limited resources and lacking hydrological instrumentation. Emerging technologies, such as Earth observation systems and indirect hydrological indicators such as energy for water pumping can help estimate water use and availability. In urban socio-hydrological systems dependent on groundwater, energy consumption for pumping provides information about water use, while water-induced land surface deformation can serve as a proxy for water availability due to its relationship to groundwater level changes. This study analyzes the trends and relationship between energy consumption for groundwater pumping and land surface deformation to characterize water security, defined as the sustainable balance between water use and availability. The study focuses on Cochabamba, Bolivia, a rapidly growing metropolis facing unique water management challenges and land deformation (i.e. subsidence in some areas and uplift in others) due to groundwater overexploitation and incomplete water infrastructure. Using Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and Regression analysis, we estimated trends in these variables from 2018 to 2022 across an extensive network of groundwater wells. We identified four trends in pumping energy consumption (increasing, decreasing, no significant change, and no consumption) and three trends in land surface deformation (uplifting, subsidence, and no significant deformation). By combining these trends, we formulated four potential scenarios to characterize water security from wells to the regional level: Water Security, Unsustainable Water Security, Water Insecurity, and Recoverable Water Insecurity. The findings reveal a predominant domestic use and an increasing trend in pumping energy consumption across wells. Most wells exhibit a state of Water Insecurity characterized by the combination of subsidence and increasing energy consumption. The study highlights the potential of combining energy consumption and land surface deformation data as accessible and scalable tools for water security monitoring in resource-constrained regions. Understanding these trends can help to develop targeted management strategies and prevent water depletion in growing urban populations.

How to cite: Maranon-Eguivar, M., Duran, A., Rocha, R., and Jaramillo, F.: Analyzing the Relationship between Electrical Consumption by Pumping and Water Induced Land Deformation to Understand Water Security, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11930, 2025.

This study examines the pressing need for appropriate groundwater (GW) management in southern region of Delhi, due to obstacle caused by increased urbanisation and population expansion. Our objective was to identify groundwater potential zones in the study region and offer insightful information for management and decision-making by utilising Machine Learning (ML). The study utilised 15 groundwater conditioning parameters for groundwater potential zone mapping including Geology, Geomorphology, Land Use/Land Cover, Lineament density, Drainage density, Rainfall, Soil, Slope, Roughness, Topographic Wetness Index, Topographic Position Index, and Curvature. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) models were utilized for evaluating groundwater suitable sites. The resulting groundwater potential zone map was classified into five categories, with different potential levels. Evidently, Both the model showed the higher accuracy, the XGBoost model showed 95% while MLPNN model showed the 96.28% accuracy. This study concluded that the south-western region has the highest groundwater potential, whereas the central and northern regions have lower potential. These models aided useful information into the influence of numerous conditioning parameters on groundwater potential and aided management decision. The study results to inform policymakers and water resource managers in southern region of Delhi about high-potential sites for sustainable groundwater management. This information optimises resource allocation to support sustainable development.

How to cite: Tanwar, D. and Sarma, K.: Application of advanced machine learning algorithms to identify sustainable groundwater potential zone in Southern Delhi Region, India , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12718, 2025.

EGU25-14046 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Potential arsenic–mercury–lead–chromium co-contamination in the mid-Gangetic plains, India: Hydrogeochemical processes and health perspectives 

Sachin Tripathi, Aseem Saxena, Durga Prasad Panday, and Manish Kumar

The co-contamination of groundwater in shallow alluvial aquifers with toxic metals such as arsenic (As), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and chromium (Cr) has emerged as a critical global environmental health concern in the 21st century. This varies with redox conditions, and land use patterns. The present study aims to address the influence of oxidation-reduction potential, geochemical signatures, and human activities on the co-contamination of As, Hg, Pb, and Cr in groundwater and river water systems through laboratory assays and multivariate statistical analysis. Physicochemical parameters, including pH and alkalinity, were found to play a critical role in the mobility of these metals. Elevated concentrations of As and Cr in river water were attributed to industrial discharges, while Hg and Pb were more prevalent in groundwater, likely due to geogenic and anthropogenic sources. The concentration hierarchy of trace metals in groundwater followed the order Hg > Pb > Cr > As, whereas in river water, it was Cr > As > Pb > Hg. Longer residence times and evaporation processes were identified as key factors enhancing the concentration of major ions and trace metals, particularly Hg, which is predominantly of anthropogenic origin. Piper diagrams revealed the dominance of Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO₃⁻, mixed Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-SO₄²⁻, and Na⁺-Cl⁻ water types, indicating influences of precipitation, rock weathering, and anthropogenic activities. Gibbs plots demonstrated the impact of evaporation on groundwater and rock-water interactions on river water chemistry. Probability exceedance indicated the inverse correlation between the concentration levels of contaminants and the likelihood of these concentrations surpassing the established regulatory thresholds. The R-mode clustering identifies three distinct clusters.  Cluster 1 indicates halite dissolution and industrial effluents, suggesting mixed. The second cluster represents the role of the industrial contribution of the trace/heavy metals, which is also the reason why it is associated with surface or river water as could be observed from the HCA matrix. Cluster 3 represents the mobilization of important trace metalloids like As via competitive desorption due to the presence of anions like HCO3- especially in river water samples. Health risk assessment indicated significant non-carcinogenic risks associated with elevated As and Cr levels. The findings emphasize the pressing need for continuous monitoring and effective management strategies to mitigate the risks posed by toxic metal contamination in freshwater systems. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of hydrogeochemical processes and the interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors driving metal co-contamination in the region.
Keywords: arsenic, chromium, lead, mercury, redox, co-contamination

How to cite: Tripathi, S., Saxena, A., Panday, D. P., and Kumar, M.: Potential arsenic–mercury–lead–chromium co-contamination in the mid-Gangetic plains, India: Hydrogeochemical processes and health perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14046, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14046, 2025.

EGU25-14952 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Assessment of Groundwater Sustainability Indicators in a Drought-Prone Region of India 

Yuvraj Dhivar and Madan Kumar Jha

Groundwater is a vital natural resource that supports human health, economic development, and ecological diversity. With its numerous inherent qualities, it has become immensely important for enhancing human water supply in both urban and rural regions of developed and developing countries. However, increasing population, industrialization, mismanagement, and inadequate governance have resulted in unregulated aquifer exploitation and growing contamination of water resources. Consequently, the sustainability of water resources (both surface water and groundwater) is under serious threat in the 21st century. It is advocated that only groundwater resources can ensure water security, food and nutrition security, and environmental security. Therefore, there is an urgent need to adopt a holistic approach for managing vital water resources.  The groundwater resources sustainability (GRS) indicators developed by UNESCO are useful scientific tools for evaluating the availability of groundwater. These indicators aid in analyzing the extent of natural processes and the impacts of humans on groundwater systems in space and time. In this study, three GRS indicators were used to assess the condition of groundwater annually in the Yavatmal district of eastern Maharashtra, India, during the 2015-2021 period. This district is comprised of 16 blocks and encompasses an area of 13,528 km2. In this district, groundwater plays a vital role in sustaining agriculture. However, there is a threat to the sustainability of groundwater in the changing climate. The indicators used are ‘renewable groundwater resources (RGWR) per capita,’ ‘total groundwater abstraction/groundwater recharge (IA/R),’ and ‘total groundwater abstraction/exploitable groundwater resources (IA/E).’ The results of the RGWR indicator were classified into three classes, viz., low (0-3), moderate (3-6), and high (>6). It was found that in 2015, 90.65% of the study area was under the low category of RGWR per capita, 5% under moderate, and 4.32% under high. In contrast, in 2018, 67.18% of the area was under the low category, and 32.82% was under the moderate category. In 2021, 58.45% under low, and 41.55% under moderate category of RGWR per capita. The results, based on indicator IA/R, revealed that groundwater abstraction exceeds groundwater replenishment (IA/R>100%) in the four blocks (out of 16 blocks) in the year 2015, five blocks in 2018, and one block in 2021. However, the third indicator (IA/E) revealed that 15 blocks in the study area have underdeveloped groundwater resources (IA/E<90%), which suggests potential for future groundwater extraction from these blocks. In only one block, groundwater utilization is in overexploited conditions (IA/E >100%) during the study period. The findings of this study indicate that groundwater sustainability indicators are practically viable tools for formulating efficient utilization of groundwater resources. It is recommended that more groundwater sustainability indicators should be used when adequate data becomes available in the future in order to find a robust set of groundwater sustainability indicators that can help planners and water managers develop a sustainable groundwater utilization plan at a basin scale. 

How to cite: Dhivar, Y. and Jha, M. K.: Assessment of Groundwater Sustainability Indicators in a Drought-Prone Region of India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14952, 2025.

EGU25-15010 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Assessment of Emergency Backup Water Sources: A Case of the Record-breaking Drought in Taiwan in 2021 

Chi-Feng Lin, Chi-Yao Hung, and Hsun-Chuan Chan

The average annual rainfall in Taiwan is approximately 2,502 millimeters, far exceeding the global average of 973 millimeters. However, the rainfall is unevenly distributed, with approximately 78% occurring during the wet season. Over the past decade, the average annual rainfall has been about 91.5 billion cubic meters, but more than 50 billion cubic meters flow directly into the sea. In terms of the overall water resource utilization framework in Taiwan, it is influenced by hydrological environmental factors, coupled with the impacts of global climate change and the normalization of extreme weather events, water resources are expected to be increasingly affected by droughts.

Between June 2020 and February 2021, the cumulative rainfall in the catchment areas of Taiwan's major reservoirs reached a historic low, decreasing by approximately 1,000 millimeters compared to the historical average of 1,780 millimeters for the same period. This severe drought presented significant challenges to Taiwan's water supply. Securing water availability during the drought, the government improved regional water resource allocation and evaluated suitable locations for developing emergency groundwater wells. This assessment was based on factors such as groundwater levels, geological profiles, aquifer thickness, and groundwater recharge conditions. Priority was given to gravel aquifers with higher recharge potential, aquifer thickness exceeding 50 meters, and proximity to water treatment facilities within the public water supply system. According to the factors, it selects appropriate locations to drill emergency water wells, ensuring that the extracted groundwater can be integrated directly into the public water supply system.

The government completed 195 drought relief groundwater wells with the approach in main metropolitan areas affected by water shortages. These wells provided approximately 75,000 cubic meters in totality per day, effectively assisting Taiwan in overcoming the drought crisis. The paper uses Taiwan's century drought event and methods for assessing emergency backup water sources as a case. Additionally, it compares techniques for evaluating groundwater development potential with other countries, such as utilizing remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Modified Impact Factor (MIF). Through case studies and literature reviews, the paper examines the feasibility of the proposed methods for practical application in emergencies.

Keywords: Drought; Groundwater; Emergency Backup Water Sources

How to cite: Lin, C.-F., Hung, C.-Y., and Chan, H.-C.: Assessment of Emergency Backup Water Sources: A Case of the Record-breaking Drought in Taiwan in 2021, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15010, 2025.

The management of groundwater resources will be challenged by alterations in the water cycle induced by climate change. Projections
show a global decrease in groundwater recharge, with strong regional differences. Water suppliers must adapt their management
strategies to maintain quantitative sustainability and groundwater quality, where the latter is endangered by increased microbial
contamination, rising temperatures, longer droughts, and heavy precipitation events.
A first step toward adaptation is a thorough assessment of the history, current state, and possible future scenarios of a region’s
renewable water resources. To facilitate such assessments for broad application, a suitable framework should be simple and avoid
the use of complex and regionally, often unavailable, models.
We propose a framework that assesses the renewable groundwater resources of a water-supply system relying on simple-to-apply
methods and, in most cases, openly available data. The framework consists of identifying the origin of the produced drinking water,
delineating the area of groundwater recharge, and assessing the historical and present demand and availability of water, including
the identification of the main drivers of water demand. These findings are extrapolated into the future using projections of regional
climate and changes in water demand linked to the growth of population, economy, and other water-demanding entities or their
potential establishment (e.g., introduction of irrigation agriculture in response to climate change). Known indicators, such as the
water-exploitation index, are useful to estimate the sustainability of the water supply for given conditions.
We have applied the framework to a regional water supplier in southwest Germany, the Ammertal Schönbuch Gruppe (ASG), which
provides water for about 120,000 people. Demands from industry and energy production are indistinguishable from the overall
demand. Irrigation in agriculture is not applied. Water demand is met by extraction from two different resources, a porous gravel
and a karstified limestone aquifer. Additionally, the supplier relies on a far-distance water supplier, the Bodensee Wasserversorgung
(Lake Constance water supply, BWV).
The scenario-based future developments comprise different degrees of population growth, per capita consumption, as well as
changes in groundwater recharge computed from down-scaled climate projections based on the RCP8.5 pathway. The findings of
the analysis of the historical situation are in good agreement with the reports of the water supplier. First indicators of potential
water stress appear in the years leading up to when the supply situation was reported as "tense".
The evaluation of future projections shows that the supply situation intensifies. Recharge rates are projected to drop to as low as
100 mm/a by 2060 in the 10-year average, from over 150 mm/a between 1990 and 2000 while the demand is projected to rise by up
to 30%. While meeting the average demand is feasible and complications arise only from droughts in most scenarios, contemplation
of the drier scenarios shows that severe water stress might be a permanent issue by the second half of the century.

How to cite: Höckh, F., Finkel, M., and Cirpka, O.: Combining Climate Projections, Recharge Modeling, and Statistical Forecasts to Assess the FutureState of Regional Groundwater Resources and Their Sustainable Use, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15279, 2025.

EGU25-15316 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Integration of DInSAR Land Subsidence Observations with a Coupled Groundwater Flow and Geomechanical Modeling Approach 

Alper Elci, Yueting Li, Elif Aysu Batkan, Mustafa Berker Bayırtepe, Claudia Zoccarato, and Pietro Teatini

This contribution presents the methodology and results of modeling studies conducted as part of an international research collaboration that aims to develop an innovative approach to characterize from the hydrogeological point of view water-stressed Mediterranean basins experiencing land subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction. By integrating remote sensing-derived land subsidence rates with an iterative implementation of numerical groundwater flow and geomechanical modeling, we developed an approach to improve the estimation of hydrogeological parameters, mainly hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss), and obtained a flow model that can better match historical groundwater level observations. To improve the characterization of K and Ss, hydraulic head measurements from groundwater monitoring wells and displacement observations from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) datasets were utilized. This was achieved through a novel procedure using a 3-D groundwater flow simulator (MODFLOW) and a 3D geomechanical simulator (GEPS3D) in an iterative coupled approach, with spatial variations of Ss and K described as stationary Gaussian random fields.

This approach was demonstrated in the Alaşehir-Sarıgöl alluvial aquifer located in the Gediz River watershed (Turkiye), where groundwater withdrawal for vineyard irrigation and urban water demand have led to significant land subsidence of up to 10 cm/yr. The simulated hydraulic heads from the flow model were input into the geomechanical model, allowing the calculation of the displacement time series for the subsiding areas, which were then compared with the DInSAR data. The updated distribution of the aquifer system compressibility, as obtained by fitting the simulated to the observed subsidence trends, was iteratively used in the groundwater flow simulator to update the hydrogeological parameter values, thereby improving model performance. Calibrated groundwater flow models are expected to more accurately forecast transient groundwater storage depletion/accumulation and are, therefore, more reliable for water management decision-making. In addition, the outcome of the iterative procedure highlighted considerable heterogeneity in the parameter distribution, underscoring the importance of remote sensing-based land subsidence observations for constraining the parameters of groundwater flow models.

Acknowledgments: This study was funded by the PRIMA program under grant agreement No. 1924, project RESERVOIR. The PRIMA program is supported by the European Union.

How to cite: Elci, A., Li, Y., Batkan, E. A., Bayırtepe, M. B., Zoccarato, C., and Teatini, P.: Integration of DInSAR Land Subsidence Observations with a Coupled Groundwater Flow and Geomechanical Modeling Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15316, 2025.

EGU25-15690 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Hydrogeological Modeling of the Maspalomas Ravine Aquifer in Gran Canaria under Climate Change Scenarios 

Jorge Martínez-León, Rodrigo Sariago, Carlos Baquedano, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Jon Jiménez, Samanta Gasco-Cavero, Juan Carlos Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Groundwater is a critical resource in the Canary Islands, requiring a comprehensive understanding and effective management of these water resources. Hydrogeological modelling provides essential geoscientific insights for the identification, protection, and sustainable utilization of these resources. This is particularly crucial for volcanic islands like Gran Canaria, which possess unique geological formations and limited water resources. These models are instrumental in elucidating groundwater flow, recharge rates, and the overall water balance within the island's aquifers.

Climate change poses significant risks to volcanic islands, including altered precipitation patterns, increased evaporation rates, and sea-level rise, which can lead to saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. These changes can severely impact water supply, agriculture, and overall sustainability. The Maspalomas Lagoon, a critical ecological site, relies on the balance of freshwater inflows from the aquifer. Understanding how climate change scenarios affect the aquifer's recharge and flow is essential for preserving the lagoon's health and the ecosystem services it provides.

By incorporating climate projections from the CMCC-ESM2 model under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, we can assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Maspalomas Ravine aquifer. Integrating climate projections into hydrogeological models facilitates more informed planning and management of water resources. This approach provides a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, leading to more resilient water management practices and ensuring a sustainable water supply for future generations on volcanic islands like Gran Canaria. Additionally, this methodology will elucidate the real influence of the aquifer and the sea on the lagoon.

How to cite: Martínez-León, J., Sariago, R., Baquedano, C., Marazuela, M. Á., Jiménez, J., Gasco-Cavero, S., Santamarta, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Hydrogeological Modeling of the Maspalomas Ravine Aquifer in Gran Canaria under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15690, 2025.

EGU25-16099 | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Groundwater microbial community and hydrogeochemical patterns in a saline-influenced coastal aquifer 

Stefano Amalfitano, Marco Melita, Marco Boccanera, Davide Corso, Andrea Cisternino, Alessandro Valle, Elisabetta Preziosi, and Stefano Ghergo

Coastal aquifers may be compromised by various anthropogenic impacts and saline water influences. Diverse inputs of surface and marine waters can consistently influence local hydrological, geochemical, and biological conditions, directly impacting groundwater quality, ecological status, and associated ecosystem services. The aquatic microbial community represents a fundamental component of the groundwater resident biota, playing a major role in nutrient cycling and bioremediation processes. However, the structural and functional traits of the aquatic microbial community have been poorly considered in groundwater quality assessments. This work aims to explore the microbial community responses to groundwater quality variation in a coastal aquifer subject to salinization. The sampling sites were located within the coastal area of Fiumicino (Rome, Italy). The primary physical-chemical characteristics of groundwater samples were examined, including major anions and cations, trace elements, and dissolved organic carbon. The aquatic microbial community was characterized to assess total microbial load (flow cytometry), the microbial metabolic potential (Biolog EcoPlates), and the heterotrophic respiration (Biolog MT2 MicroPlates). The phylogenetic community composition was also characterized by the 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Results indicated that distinct microbial community profiles, dominated by members of the families Sulfurimonadaceae and Comamonadaceae, were identified within two groups of water characterized by varying salinity and conductivity levels. Our findings underscored the necessity of a cross-disciplinary approach for improved management of groundwater resources, as alterations in the structural and functional dynamics of the groundwater microbial community will directly impact biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem services.

How to cite: Amalfitano, S., Melita, M., Boccanera, M., Corso, D., Cisternino, A., Valle, A., Preziosi, E., and Ghergo, S.: Groundwater microbial community and hydrogeochemical patterns in a saline-influenced coastal aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16099, 2025.

EGU25-16185 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

Adaptive Governance Framework for Managed Aquifer Recharge Agreements    

Syrine Ghannem, Rafael Bergillos, Javier Paredes, Abel Solera, and Joaquín Andreu

 Water governance involves the political, social, economic and administrative systems set up to develop and manage water resources, and the supply of water-related services, at different levels of society (Rogers, 2003). Integrating Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) into water governance requires a multi-faceted approach. It must consider hydrogeological conditions, land use patterns and socio-economic factors (Ghannem et al., 2024a). “Within the AGREEMAR project”, an adaptive governance framework for MAR is proposed to address the pressing challenges of groundwater depletion and water scarcity in the mediterranean region. It is designed to guide the co-creation of sustainable, inclusive and adaptive MAR agreements. However, the success of this framework depends on collaboration among various stakeholders for effective governance leading to better water management.

The approach combines technical, social, economic, and regulatory aspects that are essential for MAR implementation (Figure 1). From a technical perspective, it focuses on identifying suitable MAR sites using feasibility maps and numerical models to assess hydrological and environmental impacts and to analyze the effects of MAR on the rest of water uses in the basin and on the quantitative evolution of the aquifers. From a social point of view, it stresses the importance of including local, regional and general stakeholders in decision-making processes. Economically, it considers cost-effectiveness, resource allocation and compensation mechanisms to equitably distribute benefits among stakeholders. Regulatory aspects focus on fulfilling existing legislation and aligning with local and international policies. This framework incorporates tools such as decision support systems “AQUATOOL” and numerical groundwater modeling “INOWAS platform” to simulate scenarios and guide informed decision-making. The approach is applied to specific case studies in Spain (Ghannem et al., 2024b). Guidelines for regional MAR agreements are proposed, which provide practical insights for implementing MAR agreements within different socio-economic, environmental, and regulatory contexts of each region.

This approach shows a participatory and systematic process to address the complexities of MAR. By integrating technical assessments, stakeholder-driven methodologies and a solid policy framework, it provides a replicable model for improving sustainable groundwater management in the mediterranean region and beyond. Details of the adaptive governance framework, that can be applicable to the Mediterranean basin, will be presented during the congress.

Fig. 1. Elements to be considered when drafting MAR agreements

 

References

Ghannem, S., Bergillos, R.J., Andreu, J., Paredes-Arquiola, J., Solera, A. 2024a. AGREEMAR Deliverable D3.2: General governance framework for MAR agreements. Available online at https://www.agreemar.inowas.com/deliverables.

Ghannem, S., Bergillos, R.J., Andreu, J., Solera, A., Leitão, T.E., Martins, T.N., Alpes K.G., Oliveira M.M., Horovitz M., Chkirbene A., Khemiri K., Panagiotou C.F. 2024b. AGREEMAR D3.3: Set of Regional Draft Agreements tailored to the project case studies. Available online at https://www.agreemar.inowas.com/deliverables.

Rogers, P. (2003). Effective Water Governance. Global Water Partnership Technical Committee (TEC).

How to cite: Ghannem, S., Bergillos, R., Paredes, J., Solera, A., and Andreu, J.: Adaptive Governance Framework for Managed Aquifer Recharge Agreements   , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16185, 2025.

EGU25-16355 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Sustainability Challenges in Groundwater Management: Insights from 3D Hydrogeological Modeling in the Venetian-Friulian Plain. 

Cristina Corradin, Angelo Camerlenghi, Michela Giustiniani, Martina Busetti, Luca Zini, Laura Foglia, Aaron Micallef, Claudia Bertoni, and Ariel T. Thomas

The eastern portion of the Venetian Friulian Plain (north-eastern Italy) hosts a complex aquifer system, comprising several layered confined aquifers in the southern region and a thick phreatic aquifer in the north. These aquifers are critical for meeting the freshwater demands of the population, including drinking, industrial, agricultural, and sanitary needs. Approximately 60 m³/s of water is extracted through an estimated 50,000 wells, averaging 20 wells per square kilometer. A significant portion of this water, precise estimates are unavailable, is extracted far over the actual needs through flowing wells, operating 24h per day. These extraction practices are widespread in the region and are rooted in centuries-old legislation governing water rights tied to land ownership.
Although the region is classified as low-risk for water scarcity, the protracted droughts of 2022 forced seven municipalities to rely on alternative freshwater sources after several artesian wells ceased to function due to a significant drop in the water table. Moreover, monitoring data reveals concerning trends of aquifer depletion, with rates reaching up to 10 cm per year in some areas of the northern plain. This depletion, intensified by heavy extraction near the coastline, raises serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of current practices and the growing risk of saline intrusion.
This study marks a preliminary investigation of the current status of these water resources and evaluates the impact of groundwater extraction on depletion rates. A hydrogeological model of the VFP and the surrounding regions, including the Northern Adriatic Basin, was developed and a numerical groundwater model was run to simulate water levels and flux behaviour over a 23-year period (2000–2023). The simulations included two scenarios: one with active pumping wells and one without, to assess the impact of extraction on aquifer dynamics.
The results demonstrate that aquifer depletion is significantly affected by groundwater extraction, with localized areas experiencing depletion rates up to ten times higher due to pumping. The study also reveals offshore-directed and onshore-directed fluxes along the shoreline, both of which are impacted by well pumping, raising additional concerns about the potential of saltwater intrusion while simultaneously suggesting the presence of Offshore Freshened aquifers in the Northern Adriatic basin.
Overall, these findings highlight the potentially unsustainable nature of current groundwater extraction practices and underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive review of resource management and sustainability strategies.

How to cite: Corradin, C., Camerlenghi, A., Giustiniani, M., Busetti, M., Zini, L., Foglia, L., Micallef, A., Bertoni, C., and T. Thomas, A.: Sustainability Challenges in Groundwater Management: Insights from 3D Hydrogeological Modeling in the Venetian-Friulian Plain., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16355, 2025.

EGU25-16553 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Addressing Socio-Economic and Environmental Challenges Linked to Water Temperatures in the Face of Global Change : Application at the Seine Hydrosystem 

Agnès Rivière, Deniz Killic, Dominique Bruel, Damien Corral, Agnès Ducharne, Nicolas Flipo, Anne Jost, Nicolas Gallois, Laurence Gourcy, Abel Henriot, Daphne Ladet, Benjamin Lopez, Philippe Peylin, Valérie Roy, and William Thomas

Temperature is a critical factor at the interface between water and energy stakeholders. It plays a vital role in enabling them to sustain and develop their activities without competing for resources, particularly during periods of crisis. Both surface water bodies and subsurface compartments (<200 m), essential for maintaining aquatic ecosystems and supporting human adaptation to global changes, are utilized for a range of purposes. These include low-impact thermal energy production (e.g., river uses and shallow geothermal energy), drinking water supply, irrigation, and industrial applications.

However, these diverse uses by water and energy stakeholders, along with their associated infrastructures, lead to thermal interferences. These interferences are superimposed on broader climatic variations and trends, further complicating resource management.

In the Seine basin, observed trends are projected to persist and intensify. These include rising average temperatures, decreasing summer rainfall, and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. The sustainable management of water resources will hinge on our collective ability to anticipate and mitigate the effects of these changes.

To better predict the Seine basin’s responses to climate change, it is crucial to deepen our understanding of heat transfers between the atmosphere and the various compartments of the hydrosystem. This knowledge will be key to developing strategies that balance the needs of all stakeholders while preserving vital ecosystems and ensuring resilience against global change.

In this presentation, we will present data collection, the development of numerocal tools, and the evaluation of the evolution of the Seine's temperatures over 100 years. Physical models and simulations help quantify thermal fluxes, highlighting the main sources of heat input and heat losses. The use of machine learning models in projecting the Seine's temperatures in Paris by 2100 adds a predictive dimension. Future developments to achieve modeling that allows us to produce numerical simulations necessary for the integrated management of surface and groundwater in quantitative, qualitative, and thermal terms will be presented.

How to cite: Rivière, A., Killic, D., Bruel, D., Corral, D., Ducharne, A., Flipo, N., Jost, A., Gallois, N., Gourcy, L., Henriot, A., Ladet, D., Lopez, B., Peylin, P., Roy, V., and Thomas, W.: Addressing Socio-Economic and Environmental Challenges Linked to Water Temperatures in the Face of Global Change : Application at the Seine Hydrosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16553, 2025.

Extreme weather events can have a severe impact on riverbank filtration. For example, a prolonged severe drought like the Central European summer drought of 2018 reduces river streamflow, which can quickly and negatively impact pumping performance and water quality. In addition, long dry periods in the summer months are often accompanied by increased residential water demand. Therefore, weather and climate extremes, which are projected to become increasingly dynamic and intense, lead to difficulties for public water supply and represent major challenges for public water providers.

In the German WaX-Project “TrinkXtrem” (BMBF), adaptation strategies and management models for a riverbank filtration system of Wasserversorgung Rheinhessen-Pfalz GmbH on the Rhine River were developed.

The bank filtration system comprises two primary components: groundwater and infiltrating surface water. Near the riverbank, the river water level dynamically influences both, groundwater levels and quality. Further away from the river, groundwater level responses become progressively slower and the influence of surface water diminishes.

Therefore, a carefully considered monitoring system is essential to capture the spatially variable groundwater dynamics with frequent data collection. To this end, a well-calibrated numerical groundwater model was developed, suitable for simulating the current situation and future scenarios.

Based on the model results, innovative and sustainable management concepts that integrate facility expansion with managed aquifer recharge are developed. These concepts aim to ensure public water supply during potentially extended peak water demand periods in the future, with minimal adverse effects on the environment. Additionally, these concepts seek to create added values by stabilizing landward groundwater levels to facilitate conservation of floodplain areas and forests as well as to support agriculture.

Furthermore, future scenarios that combine peak residential water demand with periods of extreme low flow are developed and numerically modelled, and the impacts of mitigation measures are evaluated.

How to cite: Ridavits, T., Stilling, M., Riedel, T., and aus der Beek, T.: From inventory analysis to numerical modelling: Preparing Riverbank Filtration for prolonged droughts – infiltration-supported riverbank water extraction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17575, 2025.

EGU25-17726 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.5

IsoGW: groundwater isoscapes for Germany 

Aixala Gaillard, Andreas Wagner, Andreas Neuner, Dominik Kremer, Blake Walker, Jessica Landgraf, Axel Schmidt, Paul Königer, Stephan Braune, Michael Heidinger, Heinrich Eisenmann, Philip Schuler, Robert van Geldern, and Johannes A. C. Barth

Landuse and climate change alter hydrological processes and affect drinking water resources. Practical tools for understanding and quantifying these processes becomes increasingly important, for example to sustainably manage groundwater reservoirs. Analyses of the water isotopes deuterium (δ2H), oxygen (δ18O), and tritium (3H) provide useful tools, which can be applied to determine groundwater ages, assess bank filtration quantities, identify mixings of groundwater aquifers or long-term climate-induced changes. The objective of the IsoGW-project (2023-2026) is to create nation-wide interpolated isotope maps (i.e., isoscapes) of δ2H, δ18O and of 3H concentrations in German groundwaters. Aiming to provide public access to the data, an online map service and portal are set to present both the interpolated and interpreted maps as well as harmonised isotope data across the 16 German states in all relevant hydrologic compartments (groundwater, precipitation and surface waters). This work, based on an exceptional density of data points, provides new opportunities for a systematic and large-scale assessment of interactions between different compartments of the water cycle such as surface water-groundwater interactions and groundwater renewal. By establishing such a service for the first time, Germany is following its European partners, which have already published some preliminary work on the matter.

Existing data has been collected from German state offices, literature, companies and is being completed by new sampling campaigns within the project until a satisfying spacial point distribution and density is reached. Additionally, several interpolation algorithms for δ2H and δ18O, as well as different methods accounting for the 3H half-life of 12.3 years, are compared. Here, we present the latest updates regarding data research, sampling and  analyses, interpolation algorithms, as well as database and web tool development. Overall, we are confident that this database and online portal will enable large-scale assessments of the water cycle and provide an important basis also for local studies. This work will be accompanied by a practice guide that will allow researchers and practitioners to use the data and tools for all these assessments.

How to cite: Gaillard, A., Wagner, A., Neuner, A., Kremer, D., Walker, B., Landgraf, J., Schmidt, A., Königer, P., Braune, S., Heidinger, M., Eisenmann, H., Schuler, P., van Geldern, R., and Barth, J. A. C.: IsoGW: groundwater isoscapes for Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17726, 2025.

EGU25-18667 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Water use conflicts and related monitoring strategies in an extensively developed groundwater system 

Stephan Schulz, Matthias Bockstiegel, Selina Hillmann, Edinsson Muñoz-Vega, Christoph Schüth, Georg Berthold, Christoph Kludt, Kay Knöller, and Juan Carlos Richard-Cerda

In many parts of the world, groundwater resources are under increasing pressure, with both, quantitative and qualitative causes. This can lead to various water use conflicts, especially in densely populated areas. One example of such a region is the Hessian Ried, which is part of the Upper Rhine Valley and located south of Frankfurt in Germany. The Hessian Ried covers an area of approximately 1,100 km2 and was naturally mostly marshland. To allow agricultural use, it was largely drained at the beginning of the last century. Today, mainly fruit and vegetables are grown with the extensive use of fertilizers, pesticides and groundwater irrigation. In addition, the relatively dense population in adjacent areas results in the discharge of large amounts of treated municipal wastewater into the streams of the Hessian Ried. Due to widespread influent conditions, there is substantial infiltration of these surface waters into the aquifer. However, the Hessian Ried is of enormous importance for the interregional public water supply in the Rhine-Main metropolitan area, for example, as the primary drinking water supply for the city of Frankfurt.   

It is therefore important to gain an understanding of the processes by which substances are transferred from diffuse (agricultural land) and local (sewage-affected streams) sources into the groundwater and to develop reasonable countermeasures. Subsequently, monitoring tools are required that enable to examine the actual effectiveness of these measures in a timely manner. For this purpose, we have developed and implemented two types of monitoring stations at which (i) the diffuse input of nutrients and pesticides into the groundwater through the soil zone (Richard-Cerda et al., 2022, 2024) and (ii) the infiltration of pharmaceutically active compounds from a stream into the groundwater are studied. Results from the operation of these stations over a period of more than one year and additional laboratory experiments on hyporheic zone processes show initial findings on the sorption, transformation and degradation of nutrients and various organic trace substances.

 

References

Richard-Cerda, J.C., Bockstiegel, M., Muñoz-Vega, E., Knöller, K., Schüth, C., & Schulz, S., (2024). High-Resolution Monitoring and Redox-Potential-Based Solute Transport Modeling to Partition Denitrification Pathways at an Agricultural Site. Environmental Science & Technology Water. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsestwater.4c00540

Richard-Cerda, J.C., Giber, A., Muñoz-Vega, E., Kübeck, C., Berthold, G., Schüth, C., & Schulz, S. (2022). A high-resolution monitoring station for the in situ assessment of nitrate-related redox processes at an agricultural site. Journal of Environmental Quality 52. 188-198. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20423

How to cite: Schulz, S., Bockstiegel, M., Hillmann, S., Muñoz-Vega, E., Schüth, C., Berthold, G., Kludt, C., Knöller, K., and Richard-Cerda, J. C.: Water use conflicts and related monitoring strategies in an extensively developed groundwater system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18667, 2025.

EGU25-18943 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.5

Impacts of Increased Agricultural Irrigation on Regional Groundwater Recharge 

Jan Görtz, Bianca Grieser, Tobias KD Weber, and Thilo Streck

Climate change, with its rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, is expected to reduce soil moisture during critical phases of plant growth. This will lead to increased water stress and lower crop yields. As the frequency of low-yield years rises, farmers will become increasingly interested in irrigation as a means to stabilize crop production. This trend could accelerate if government subsidies for irrigation infrastructure increase in response to recurring low yields.

This shift towards increased irrigation may be particularly relevant for Germany, where in most regions irrigation is limited to few specialty crops. The present study focuses on the potential impact of increased irrigation in a 400 km² area south of Stuttgart, encompassing the morphological catchment of the Ammer River and part of the Neckar Valley near Tübingen. Since irrigation is not widely practiced in this region, it provides a unique opportunity to clearly demonstrate the effects of a possible transition to irrigation agriculture.

To analyze these impacts, the crop model ExpertN was used to simulate irrigation requirements for each of the region's 300 soil-weather units. The model incorporates detailed processes, such as water flow within soil layers (Richards equation) and evapotranspiration (based on the Penman-Monteith equation), to accurately describe soil moisture dynamics. Additionally, the model includes nitrogen cycling, enabling an assessment of increased irrigation to nitrate leaching.

The study highlights key outcomes, including the water demand for irrigation, additional moisture losses through evaporation, and increases in deep percolation under varying irrigation intensities. Furthermore, we evaluate the effects of irrigation on regional crop production, providing valuable insights for sustainable agricultural management under a changing climate.

How to cite: Görtz, J., Grieser, B., Weber, T. K., and Streck, T.: Impacts of Increased Agricultural Irrigation on Regional Groundwater Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18943, 2025.

EGU25-19516 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Nature-Based Managed Aquifer Recharge solutions for mitigating water shortage at Danube-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary 

Szilvia Simon, Brigitta Czauner, Márk Szijártó, Ildikó Erhardt, Ferenc Gyuris, István Hoffman, Ádám Györfi, Ignacio Cazcarro, Jessica Lillquist, and Judit Mádl-Szőnyi

Water shortage is a common challenge worldwide, and the Hungarian Great Plain is no exception. Climate change and human impacts (canal construction, afforestation, overpumping) have been causing severe water level declines in the area since the 1960’s. Water retention solutions are needed to preserve the natural vegetation and wet ecosystems and to ensure sustainable agriculture in the region. Water retention can be achieved in many ways, but consideration of the subsurface environment is inevitable. The Nature-Based MAR solution is based on the NaBa-MAR© ELTE concept that integrates MAR methods and systematic groundwater flow for comprehensive landscape-scale water replenishment. In this way, not only is the storage capacity of aquifers considered, but the governing groundwater movement is also incorporated in the design of the water retention in an area. The naturally moving groundwater transports the retained water providing benefits locally and also further away. The main objective of introducing the concept© is to match the demands and potentials in an area from a hydrogeological, social, and legal perspective. The applicability of the concept was assessed for the Danube-Tisza Interfluve area on a regional and local scale. As a first step, the available water sources were counted and the possibility of the infiltration MAR methods were investigated with MAR suitability mapping on a regional scale. Knowing this, the design of the possible MAR solutions was carried out on a local scale study area, taking into account the natural groundwater flow. Field measurements and numerical simulation helped to choose the most appropriate solution for rehabilitating a shallow lake environment. The results highlighted that local water retention solutions in regional recharge and through-flow areas have limited local effects. However, comprehensive NaBa-MAR solutions can have a landscape-scale impact in restoring the water level conditions in the area.

The work has been implemented by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014) project within the framework of Hungary's National Recovery and Resilience Plan supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility of the European Union. The work received funding from the European Commission and Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from National Research, Development and Innovation Fund; the Irish Enviromental Protection Agency; the Dutch Research Council and the Agencia Española de Investigación in the frame of the collaborative international consortium ClimEx-PE financed under the 2022 Joint call of the European Partnership 101060874 — Water4All. Project no. 2023-1.2.2-HE_PARTNERSÉG-2023-00005 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the 2023-1.2.2-HE_PARTNERSÉG funding scheme.

How to cite: Simon, S., Czauner, B., Szijártó, M., Erhardt, I., Gyuris, F., Hoffman, I., Györfi, Á., Cazcarro, I., Lillquist, J., and Mádl-Szőnyi, J.: Nature-Based Managed Aquifer Recharge solutions for mitigating water shortage at Danube-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19516, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19516, 2025.

EGU25-19599 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Addressing water resource challenges on Vis island, Croatia: an integrated approach to karst aquifer management 

Josip Terzić, Staša Borović, Matko Patekar, Marco Pola, Maja Briški, Ivan Kosović, Tihomir Frangen, and Kosta Urumović

Vis is a small, remote island in the eastern Adriatic Sea predominantly composed of karstified carbonate rocks. The unique geological and hydrogeological context results in an autonomous water supply from its karst aquifer. The primary extraction site, the Korita well field in the central part of the island, benefits from natural protection against seawater intrusion via two hydrogeological barriers: (i) an impermeable volcanic-sedimentary-evaporite rock complex connected to a diapir structure to the west, and (ii) a zone of reduced permeability beneath karst poljes to the south. The current pumping capacity (up to 42 l/s) meets the local population demand. However, peak summer tourism and changes in precipitation patterns attributed to climate change impose significant stress on the groundwater resource during dry periods, leading to occasional supply reductions in the recent past. To address this issue, interdisciplinary research has been conducted over the past two decades to ensure the sustainable utilization of this primary resource under changing climatic conditions.

This research incorporates detailed aquifer and catchment characterization through a combination of methods: hydrogeological (pumping and tracer tests, continuous groundwater level, electrical conductivity, and temperature monitoring), hydrochemical (groundwater ion composition and isotope analyses), geophysical (electrical resistivity tomography, seismic refraction, and magnetotellurics), structural (fault and fracture analysis), and hydrological (water balance calculations and climate modeling). These investigations are complemented by socio-economic analyses of future water demand and the feasibility of managed aquifer recharge solutions.

Results indicate long-term stability in groundwater quality and quantity despite variable precipitation (the sole recharge source), suggesting substantial groundwater reserves and resilience to seasonal pumping peaks and periodic droughts. However, increasing water demand, climate change, and the risk of seawater intrusion pose potential threats. Ongoing and future researches aim to develop a comprehensive sustainable water management strategy, encompassing: (i) identification of potential new extraction zones and well development, (ii) an early warning system for seawater intrusion, (iii) optimized pumping rates at Korita, (iv) revitalization of rainwater harvesting for agricultural irrigation, (v) managed aquifer recharge, and/or (vi) implementation of small-scale desalination.

Acknowledgment: This research was conducted in the scope of the internal research project SIS-VIS at the Croatian Geological Survey, funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan 2021–2026 of the European Union – NextGenerationEU and monitored by the Ministry of Science, Education and Youth of the Republic of Croatia.

How to cite: Terzić, J., Borović, S., Patekar, M., Pola, M., Briški, M., Kosović, I., Frangen, T., and Urumović, K.: Addressing water resource challenges on Vis island, Croatia: an integrated approach to karst aquifer management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19599, 2025.

EGU25-20420 | Orals | HS8.2.5

Integrated Water Balance Modeling - Sustainable and Climate-Adapted Water Management  

Maximilian Winderl, Ferdinand Flechtner, Philipp Hüttner, and Zoltan Trabak

The Borken region in northern Germany faces growing water challenges due to climate change and increasing water demand. Prolonged and intensified summer droughts, coupled with extreme storm events, are becoming more frequent, raising concerns about water scarcity and flood risks. These changes significantly impact stakeholders such as farmers, drinking water suppliers, and private industries, who are increasingly concerned about potential reductions in water use permits. Addressing these challenges requires a holistic water management strategy. Therefore, an integrated water balance model was developed to facilitate regional water resource planning and address ongoing challenges. Plans are underway to enhance this model into an operational system for real-time water resource monitoring and management.

Advanced modeling tools are required for capturing the complex interactions between groundwater, surface water, and the unsaturated zone. The hydrological model for Borken is based on the MIKE SHE software, which enables high-resolution temporal and spatial simulations. The integrated modelling approach offers detailed insights into the water balance of the catchment and integrates all components of the hydrological cycle.

The model incorporates a three-dimensional groundwater flow module based on a hydrogeological model, providing comprehensive insights into the subsurface hydrodynamics. The unsaturated zone, a critical component influencing aquifer recharge and the partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff, is modeled with high precision, accounting for soil properties, moisture content, and evapotranspiration. This detailed representation is essential for predicting the impacts of varying climatic conditions and land-use changes on groundwater recharge rates.

In addition, overland flow processes are integrated into the model, allowing for the simulation of surface runoff during storm events. Further, the model is coupled with a 1D river model based on the MIKE+ software. The coupling ensures a seamless exchange of fluxes between the aquifer and surface water bodies, capturing the dynamic responses of the water system to weather events. The model also includes anthropogenic factors, such as groundwater extractions, irrigation, drainage systems, and hydraulic control structures.

Unlike conventional hydrological models that focus primarily on either groundwater or surface water and apply simplified boundary conditions, the integrated approach used here simulates all hydrological processes in detail. The model is calibrated against both groundwater level measurements and river discharge data, ensuring that processes such as baseflow, interflow, and direct runoff are not merely approximated but are numerically represented and calibrated.

Only through a precise representation of all processes—including the unsaturated zone, groundwater flow, and the interaction between river and groundwater—can both groundwater levels and discharge peaks be accurately modeled. In addition, the integrated model ensures a closed water balance. As a result, the use of an integrated model significantly enhances the predictive quality, offering high confidence in the models ability to forecast water behavior and outcomes.

The model has been calibrated as outlined above and is already being used to assess various retention measure scenarios. By providing this integrated model, stakeholders in the Borken Water Catchment Area are able to make informed decisions, design adaptive water management strategies, and effectively mitigate the risks posed by climate change.

How to cite: Winderl, M., Flechtner, F., Hüttner, P., and Trabak, Z.: Integrated Water Balance Modeling - Sustainable and Climate-Adapted Water Management , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20420, 2025.

Despite adequate water availability, Germany faces a widespread need to optimize the sustainable use of groundwater due to high water utilization rates. Furthermore, being a main source for drinking water, groundwater needs profound and future-proof protection. To address these challenges, aquifer management practices must be improved for greater efficiency in order to maintain the long-term availability of good drinking water quality.

Statistical analysis of hydrogeochemical data offers valuable insights into the functioning of groundwater systems, the identification of dominant processes within aquifers, and the detection of contaminant input sources. Although long-term data is often available, the variable structure of these datasets frequently poses challenges for immediate statistical analysis. Data sparsity caused by the integration of datasets with differing parametric and temporal resolutions (e.g., data from scientific research programs versus routine monitoring programs by governmental water suppliers) poses a problem for statistical evaluation methods sensitive to data density (e.g., Principal Component Analysis). Instead of the rigorous deletion of time steps and/or parameters in cases, where data density is critical for the selected evaluation method, preprocessing by imputation can reduce the loss of valuable information.

This study demonstrates the applicability, limitations and distinctions of common script-based imputation methods for enhancing the density of long-term hydrogeochemical data. Two datasets of groundwater from two different drinking water protection areas in Germany (Düsseldorf and Dormagen, 2000–2023) and a third dataset from the Rhine River (dividing both protection areas, 1990–2023) were evaluated (provided by the Stadtwerke Düsseldorf AG within the framework of the research project iMolch, a collaborative project of the funding measure LURCH). The evaluations span conventional imputation methods to modern machine-learning approaches, while indicating an emerging new potential for the re-assessment of historical data through the utilization of recently available machine-learning algorithms. Nonetheless, data imputation must be applied cautiously, as it carries the risk of introducing non-representative data values, particularly when conducted without thorough understanding of the data structure, internal dependencies, and the imputation mechanism. Additionally, both the effectiveness of the imputation and the preservation of the data’s representativeness should be strictly verified post-application. Therefore, the results highlight methods-specific constraint differences, offering practical, Python-based recommendations for efficient hydrogeochemical data imputation.

By enhancing data density while preserving representativeness, this work contributes to addressing the broader challenge of optimizing the sustainable groundwater use and safeguarding water resources under increasing anthropogenic pressures.

How to cite: Veskov, D., Antunovic, D., Droste, B., and Schiperski, Dr. F.: Applicability of imputation methods for enhancing density of long term hydrogeochemical data — Differences and constraints of conventional and machine learning-based approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21589, 2025.

EGU25-300 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Pore network connectivity affecting the NMR relaxation in unsaturated porous media 

Junwen Zhou and Chi Zhang

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) reveals pore water properties due to its unique sensitivity to water, making it a powerful tool in hydrogeological studies. By measuring the magnetization and relaxation time of hydrogen atoms, NMR enables estimation of water content, pore size distribution, irreducible and free water content, and hydraulic conductivity in geologic media. However, interpreting NMR data in the vadose zone remains challenging. While established relationships between NMR signals, pore structure, and physiochemical properties are reliable under saturated conditions, they often fail or yield significant errors in unsaturated environments due to the complex pore structure and solid-liquid-vapor interactions within vadose zone’s pore spaces. A key challenge in unsaturated NMR data interpretation is the pore coupling effect, where protons diffuse across multiple pore environments before relaxing. This phenomenon can distort NMR relaxation time distributions, resulting in averaged representations of pore networks rather than individual pore environments, leading to misinterpretation of NMR data. In this study, we investigate the impact of pore coupling on NMR signals using experimental and numerical methods. Using glass bead samples of different sizes (0.05-0.1 and 0.4-0.6 mm diameters) under different saturation states, we measure the NMR T2 and T2-store-T2 measurements to quantify pore coupling phenomena. Our T2-store-T2 data show that the decreased saturation weakens the influence of pore coupling on NMR relaxation. We further scan our samples using micro X-ray computed tomography (µCT) to establish 3D structures with detailed structural characteristics and solid-water-air interfaces. We develop a numerical simulation framework incorporating geometric models derived from µCT scans, acquired using HECTOR at the Center of X-ray Tomography (UGCT) with the EXCITE network, to simulate the NMR T2 and T2-store-T2 responses. This framework enables investigation of how various pore network structures and water distribution patterns influence NMR relaxation under different saturations, providing theoretical support for our experimental observations. Our findings enhance the understanding of NMR response in unsaturated porous media with the presence of pore coupling, providing improved interpretation strategies for NMR vadose zone characterization.

How to cite: Zhou, J. and Zhang, C.: Pore network connectivity affecting the NMR relaxation in unsaturated porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-300, 2025.

EGU25-3049 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Characterizing Fault Zone Hydrology Using a Coupled Geophysical and Modeling Approach 

Marceau Gresse, Akinobu Miyakoshi, Yuki Tosaki, Hinako Hosono, Sumire Maeda, Mohamed Mahrous, Tsutomu Sato, Daisuke Asahina, Shogo Komori, Hitoshi Tsukamoto, Makoto Otsubo, and Mikio Takeda

Fault zones can play a critical role in controlling small to large scale groundwater flow. Extensive studies have focused on permeability variations along faults in terms of conduit or barrier function for deep groundwater flow. However, little attempt has been made to characterize the hydrologic functions of near-surface fault zones.

When exposed to atmospheric conditions, fault zones are further disturbed by stress relief and chemical weathering, modifying their structure and generally increasing their permeability. Consequently, the fault zone, acting as a near-surface recharge or discharge zone, exerts a non-negligible influence on groundwater flow. However, identifying the hydrological function of such a fault zone remains challenging when relying solely on conventional, often non-integrated, geophysical or hydrological investigation approaches.

This study presents a multiphysics coupled strategy to characterize the groundwater flow regime around near-surface fault zone. The proposed approach is applied to an active reverse fault zone in Kamikita Plain, NE Japan, which extends for 30 km within the recharge zone of the catchment.

The multiphysics approach consists of 5 consecutive steps:

  • Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) Survey: A 3.8 km-long profile across the fault zone, with 20 m electrode spacing.
  • Self-Potential (SP) survey: Conducted along the ERT profile.
  • Rock property characterization: A 160 m deep borehole was drilled in the fault zone and physical properties were measured.
  • Groundwater flow simulation of the fault zone: Using hydrogeological data, measured rock properties and a 3D geological model.
  • Model evaluation: Post-processing of the groundwater flow simulation to calculate synthetic electrical resistivity and self-potential responses and comparison with observed field data.

The fault zone is identified by a sharp structural change between conductive and resistive geologic units, which also exhibit a small but shifted SP jump (+20 mV) signal. Our model evaluation process reproduces the entire ERT and SP data.

This newly proposed multiphysics approach offers a robust tool for monitoring groundwater flow in geologically complex regions, with applications in radioactive waste disposal safety, groundwater contamination management, and understanding hydrogeologic processes in tectonically active areas.


Acknowledgements: Main part of this research project has been conducted as the regulatory supporting research funded by the Secretariat of the Nuclear Regulation Authority, Japan.

How to cite: Gresse, M., Miyakoshi, A., Tosaki, Y., Hosono, H., Maeda, S., Mahrous, M., Sato, T., Asahina, D., Komori, S., Tsukamoto, H., Otsubo, M., and Takeda, M.: Characterizing Fault Zone Hydrology Using a Coupled Geophysical and Modeling Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3049, 2025.

EGU25-3101 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Hydro-gravimetry as a monitoring solution for water and ice storage changes in dynamic alpine environments 

Landon J.S. Halloran, Nazanin Mohammadi, Dominik Amschwand, Antoine Carron, Marie Arnoux, and Fernando Gutierrez

Climate change is rapidly impacting the mountain hydrosphere and cryosphere. Permafrost degradation and decreasing snow accumulation are rapidly altering the hydrological dynamics of headwater catchments with increasing dependence on subsurface water resources. Groundwater and subsurface ice are critical hydrological compartments for the resilience of alpine hydrological systems. While their buffering capacities are known to ensure perennial streamflow during increasingly long warm and dry periods, the limits of these resources are not generally understood. In spite of this growing importance, storage changes of subsurface water, in both solid and liquid form, remain the most uncertain components in alpine hydrological investigations.

Time-lapse gravimetry (TLG) involves the measurement and analysis of temporal variations in acceleration due to gravity (Δg). This hydrogeophysical method is spatially integrative, portable, and non-invasive. Because it is sensitive to all mass distribution changes, TLG is a powerful tool to fill the hydrogeological and cryospheric monitoring void in alpine settings.

Here, we present ongoing investigations of changes in groundwater storage and ground ice at multiple sites in the Swiss Alps and Pre-Alps. At the pre-alpine Röthenbach catchment, we are performing monthly TLG surveys. Preliminary results show significant spatial variability in groundwater storage changes, undetectable by piezometers and wells [see abstract EGU25-11997]. These data are being used to inform the development of a numerical hydrogravimetric data assimilation framework [EGU25-7128]. In the non-glaciated Vallon de Réchy, we have monitored seasonal decreases in groundwater storage across three summer/autumn periods, showing significant spatial and inter-annual variability and informing new conceptual models. Finally, at the Murtèl rock glacier, we recently deployed TLG, coupled with UAV imagery, to measure seasonal thaw in the active layer [EGU25-6793]. The results of this novel application were consistent with point observations and revealed spatially-variable thaw. Additionally, through comparison with a historic (1991) gravimetric survey, we found evidence of long-term permafrost degradation.

Our results, which provide quantitative, and spatially-distributed information on storage changes in groundwater and ground ice, demonstrate the significant potential of TLG for hydrogeology and cryospheric sciences.

How to cite: Halloran, L. J. S., Mohammadi, N., Amschwand, D., Carron, A., Arnoux, M., and Gutierrez, F.: Hydro-gravimetry as a monitoring solution for water and ice storage changes in dynamic alpine environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3101, 2025.

EGU25-3890 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Integrated analysis of hydrological components of the Seolma stream watershed by complementing SWAT model and RADAR-based data 

Gian Choi, Seong-Sim Yoon, Soyoung Woo, Dong Phil Kim, and Il-Moon Chung

This research focused on analyzing the hydrological characteristics of the Seolma stream watershed in Paju, Gyeonggi-do, South Korea. The study employed the SWAT model to evaluate various hydrological components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture, and groundwater recharge. Seolma stream, a small mountainous stream, was assessed for long-term runoff trends using data spanning from 2004 to 2023, which were then compared with observed records. The study also examined whether substituting rainfall observation data with RADAR-based values could enhance the accuracy of the runoff analysis. To address the absence of flow observation data for the period between June 2022 and April 2023, RADAR data and deep learning techniques were utilized to fill in the gaps.

Acknowledgements Research for this paper was carried out under the 2025 KICT Research Program (Development of IWRM-Korea Technical Convergence Platform Based on Digital New Deal) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT.

How to cite: Choi, G., Yoon, S.-S., Woo, S., Kim, D. P., and Chung, I.-M.: Integrated analysis of hydrological components of the Seolma stream watershed by complementing SWAT model and RADAR-based data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3890, 2025.

We demonstrate that electrical resistivity imaging can be combined with self-potential and induced polarization to produce 3D images of the Darcy-velocity field in the subsurface of the Earth. We first review the basic concept behind this new appraoch and then, we apply it to two case studies associated with leakage in dams and enbankments. The dam of Lampy (Black Mountain, Aude, France) is considered as one of the oldest dams in France. A geophysical survey is performed to better understand the pattern of groundwater flow downstream of this dam in the granitic substratum. Induced polarization is first used to image both electrical conductivity and normalized chargeability. 8 core samples of granite from this site are measured and analyzed in the laboratory. Their electrical conductivity and normalized chargeability are expressed as a function of the porosity and Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC). The field data and the petrophysical results are used to image the water content, the CEC, and the permeability distribution of the substratum. Then, self-potential is used as a complementary passive geophysical technique, which, in absence of metallic bodies, is directly sensitive to groundwater flow through the so-called streaming potential effect. Indeed, the excess of electrical charges in the vicinity of the solid grains, in the so-called double layer, is dragged by the ground water flow generating in turn an electrical (streaming) current and therefore an electrical field. A map of the resulting self-potential signals is done over the area covered by the induced polarization profiles. This map shows a large positive anomaly with an amplitude of ~80 mV possibly associated with upwelling groundwater in an area where the soil is water-saturated. A groundwater flow simulation is performed to model this anomaly. This is done in two steps. A preliminary groundwater flow model is built using the permeability and water content distributions obtained from the induced polarization data. Then, this groundwater flow model is updated using the information contained in the self-potential data including the electrical conductivity distribution obtained through resistivity tomography. The algorithm for the inversion of the self-potential data is validated through a 2D numerical test. This analysis yields a groundwater flow model with the flow being focused through a high permeability zone. A similar appraoch is then apply to a leakage through a small dam in Easter France. We also provide a synthetic case study to demonstrate the value of our approach. This study shows how three geoelectrical methods (self-potential, induced polarization and electrical resistivity) can be efficiently combined to image groundwater flow in the vicinity of a dam or an embankment. We are currebtly working on using this approach on landslides. 

How to cite: Revil, A. and Ghorbani, A.: Combining electrical resistivity, self-potential and induced polarization to image ground water flow in 3D: Theory and applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4807, 2025.

EGU25-5619 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.6

Self-Potential Responses to Tree Transpiration: Insights from a One-Year Dataset in a Mediterranean Climate 

Kaiyan Hu, Bertille Loiseau, Simon D. Carrière, Nolwenn Lesparre, Cédric Champollion, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Niklas Linde, and Damien Jougnot

Plant transpiration is a critical component of the water cycle, and its quantification is essential for understanding terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. The self-potential (SP) method, a passive geophysical approach, presents a promising alternative for assessing transpiration rates, although the electrophysiological processes driving SP signals in trees remain underexplored. This study presents a year-long monitoring of SP and sap velocity in three tree species—Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.), Holm oak (Quercus ilex L.), and Pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens)—across three Mediterranean study sites: Font-Blanche, LSBB, and Larzac. Using wavelet coherence analysis and variational mode decomposition, our findings reveal strong coherence between SP and sap velocity at diurnal time scales, with coherence diminishing and phase shifts increasing under higher water supply conditions. At the Font-Blanche site, correlation coefficients between diurnal SP and sap velocity variations in summer 2023 reached 0.91 for Aleppo pine and 0.77 for Holm oak. The estimated excess charge density of Aleppo pine and Holm oak sapwood, derived from linear regression between SP and sap velocity variations, ranges from 6.8 to 68.0 C·m-3 throughout 2023, aligning with values typical of porous geological media. During dry seasons, the electrokinetic effect dominates SP signals, suggesting its potential as a tool for evaluating transpiration rates. This research demonstrates the potential value of integrating SP measurements into ecohydrological studies to better understand plant-water interactions.

How to cite: Hu, K., Loiseau, B., Carrière, S. D., Lesparre, N., Champollion, C., Martin-StPaul, N. K., Linde, N., and Jougnot, D.: Self-Potential Responses to Tree Transpiration: Insights from a One-Year Dataset in a Mediterranean Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5619, 2025.

EGU25-5895 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

An evaluation of computational methods in electromagnetic geophysics and their potential for groundwater system imaging 

Paula Rulff, Wouter Deleersnyder, Octavio Castillo-Reyes, Maria Carrizo Mascarell, and Jude King

Finding effective methods for locating groundwater resources and ensuring safe drinking water is more crucial than ever, especially in the face of climate change and growing population pressures. Electromagnetic imaging techniques can significantly enhance our understanding of groundwater assessment, contamination detection, and overall management strategies. We discuss both time-domain and frequency-domain electromagnetic methods, emphasising the computational techniques used to analyse the electromagnetic data, along with several notable case studies that illustrate their effectiveness.

With the increasing availability of open-source software frameworks, more researchers are now able to analyse their data using sophisticated computational tools. Our contribution highlights the open-source software options for assessing electromagnetic data, focusing on the challenges presented by groundwater imaging, particularly due to the variations in spatial and temporal scales. We review various hydrological studies along with their corresponding electromagnetic surveying methods and the computational techniques employed. Moreover, we explore the potential benefits of advanced computational approaches, such as three-dimensional modelling and machine learning, when integrated with numerical groundwater modelling for enhanced imaging of groundwater systems. Although there are obstacles related to complexity and resource demands, our results indicate that the integration of these advanced techniques can improve the assessment and interpretation of geophysical and hydrological data, leading to a more effective understanding and management of groundwater resources.

How to cite: Rulff, P., Deleersnyder, W., Castillo-Reyes, O., Carrizo Mascarell, M., and King, J.: An evaluation of computational methods in electromagnetic geophysics and their potential for groundwater system imaging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5895, 2025.

EGU25-6610 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.6

Time-lapse inversion of resistivity data reveals infiltration response of crystalline substratum following rainfall in an Alpine catchment 

Louise Resche-Rigon, Ludovic Baron, Roberto Miele, James Irving, Klaus Holliger, Clément Roques, and Niklas Linde

Predicting groundwater recharge, storage, and transport in mountain environments is challenging due to high spatiotemporal variability and limited data. In this context, we report on a time-lapse Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey conducted in an Alpine catchment in October 2024 involving measurements before and after a major rainfall event. Hydraulic head (yearly variations of ~40 m) and water temperature (decreasing long-term trend) have been monitored since 2010 in the Val d’Ursé sub-catchment (Poschiavo, Switzerland) through an instrumented borehole located at an elevation of ~2300 m. A 470-meter long ERT profile was centred on this borehole, where the groundwater level was located at ~25 m depth at the time of the measurements. The profile crosses a geological interface between orthogneiss, within which the borehole is located, and schist. The soil and/or alluvial cover of the crystalline substratum is very thin or absent. Using the PyGIMLi framework, we inverted apparent resistivity data collected before and after a major rainfall event with cumulative precipitation of ~50 mm within ~10 hours. The timelapse results obtained by difference inversion of the Wenner-Schlumberger data indicate a clear signature of infiltration in terms of a well-resolved decrease in resistivity on the order of 10 % in the upper 20 m of the unsaturated orthogneiss.  Following these initial results, intensive geophysical field campaigns are being planned for the next field season, which will primarily target the period shortly after snowmelt, when groundwater storage is at its maximum, and the period from late summer to early fall, when groundwater storage is much lower. In addition to ERT surveys, we plan to carry out self-potential monitoring as well as time-lapse gravity and drone-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements along the current profile and in its vicinity, which notably include a prominent rock glacier.

How to cite: Resche-Rigon, L., Baron, L., Miele, R., Irving, J., Holliger, K., Roques, C., and Linde, N.: Time-lapse inversion of resistivity data reveals infiltration response of crystalline substratum following rainfall in an Alpine catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6610, 2025.

EGU25-6872 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.6

Hydrogeophysical Characterization of the Vadose Zone in the Beauce Aquifer: Integrating GPR and Geological Data at the O-ZNS Observatory 

Ghina Abbani, Jacques Deparis, Thibaut Jamey, Gautier Laurent, Mohamad Abbas, Céline Mallet, Mohamed Boujoudar, and Mohamed Azaroual

The vadose zone presents significant challenges for hydrological characterization, particularly in unraveling mass and heat transfer mechanisms influenced by medium heterogeneities and the interplay of geophysical and geochemical processes. Geophysical methods, in particular Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), provide a high resolution, non-invasive imaging of the subsurface features and dynamic processes. In this context, the Observatory of Transfers in the Vadose Zone (O-ZNS) in Orléans, France, provides a unique framework for studying the Beauce limestone aquifer across various spatial and temporal scales. At the O-ZNS site, GPR data were acquired inside a central well (20 m deep, 4 m diameter) at multiple depths, to image key geological structures and diagenetic features. To maximize the interpretive value of this data, we developed an integrated workflow based on geophysical and geological approaches. The GPR profiles processing scheme includes time-zero corrections, DC removal, bandpass filtering, gain function, migration, and time-depth conversion, resulting in enhanced profiles for precise interpretation. GPR data are correlated with the geological and sedimentological information derived from optical log imaging, drill core pictures, and photogrammetry of the main O-ZNS well. 2D and 3D models of GPR profiles are used to identify radar facies and evaluate the impact of geological, diagenetic, and petrophysical features – such as fractures, karst, and porosity variations – on GPR signal responses. These findings establish a foundational framework for consistent and accurate radar data interpretation in the study area and contribute to better understanding of flow and transport mechanisms in the vadose zone. This study contributes to refining hydrological models and highlights the importance of integrating geophysical and geological data for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers.

How to cite: Abbani, G., Deparis, J., Jamey, T., Laurent, G., Abbas, M., Mallet, C., Boujoudar, M., and Azaroual, M.: Hydrogeophysical Characterization of the Vadose Zone in the Beauce Aquifer: Integrating GPR and Geological Data at the O-ZNS Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6872, 2025.

EGU25-8183 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Applying In-well ERT to characterize and monitor fresh-saltwater interface in coastal aquifer:A Laboratory and Numerical Study 

Jiawei Li, Chi San Tsai, Jiaqi Liu, and Tomochika Tokunaga

Saltwater intrusion (SWI) and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) are critical processes influencing coastal aquifer dynamics. A transition zone formed where fresh and saline groundwater mixed at the coastline. However, the position of the interface shifts due to cyclic tides and varying freshwater discharge rates. Understanding characteristics of the fresh-saltwater interface is crucial to analyze the development of groundwater salinity in land subsided coastal areas.

Here, we present the laboratory experiment of In-well Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) under controlled saltwater intrusion tests. This approach leads to a straightforward detection of fresh-saltwater interface incorporating the temporal dynamics of real systems. Unlike conventional ERT, it offers higher resolution imaging at greater depths and captures more accurate subsurface data, particularly around the fresh-saltwater interface. To establish our research in investigating the local groundwater salinization distribution using in-well ERT, Numerical experiments were initially conducted using COMSOL to determine the minimum electrode spacing that would not significantly impact the results.     These simulations helped identify the optimal spacing required to maintain the accuracy and reliability of the measurements, given the limited space available in the laboratory. Based on the findings from these numerical experiments, a laboratory-scale setup was designed and implemented in a vertical direction within a cylinder tank.

In the present study, a clear interface was observed and measured, through density flow, mounted observation tubes, dyeing and a series of operations. Preliminary results show a strong correlation between the measured resistance values and the actual interface changes. Additionally, the numerical experiments simulated real well conditions, including the thickness of the internal reinforced mud cake, and incorporated a detailed electrode structure (ring structure). This work provides valuable insights through laboratory results coupled with model simulations, which are essential for the future real-site application at the lower reach of Nabaki River, Chiba, Japan—a typical tidal river system in a below-sea-level land subsided area.

How to cite: Li, J., Tsai, C. S., Liu, J., and Tokunaga, T.: Applying In-well ERT to characterize and monitor fresh-saltwater interface in coastal aquifer:A Laboratory and Numerical Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8183, 2025.

EGU25-8401 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Time domain induced polarization data acquisition at contaminated sites 

Jian Meng, Deqiang Mao, Kexiang Zhai, Shiliang Liu, Xinmin Ma, Ruijue Zhao, and Khalil Rahman

Time domain induced polarization (TDIP) has emerged as a highly effective tool for characterizing soil and groundwater contamination. Numerous studies have focused on the objective of enhancing accuracy of TDIP results. However, the acquisition of high quality TDIP data has received less attention than it deserved. In this study, three data acquisition methods were evaluated across seven distinct sites, with a particular focus on the controlling factors that influence data quality. This study addresses the questions about how to select a reliable TDIP acquisition method. The results demonstrate that there are significant differences in the raw data obtained through different acquisition methods, with the inverted results derived from these datasets exhibiting varying discrepancy. The data quality associated with the dual cables utilizing non-polarizable electrodes layout (Dual-CL-NP) is markedly superior, thereby ensuring the reliability of the results. Furthermore, apparent resistivity and measured voltage are identified as the key factors on data quality. The threshold values for selecting the acquisition method are determined. The Dual-CL-NP method should be utilized when the averaged apparent resistivity is less than 7.9 Ω·m. Consequently, a guideline for TDIP data acquisition is proposed, which addresses the limitations associated with TDIP data quality and facilitates its advancement.

How to cite: Meng, J., Mao, D., Zhai, K., Liu, S., Ma, X., Zhao, R., and Rahman, K.: Time domain induced polarization data acquisition at contaminated sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8401, 2025.

EGU25-10130 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Geophysical insights into the shallow groundwater system of the Salar de Huasco, northern Chile 

Borja Farah, Gonzalo Yáñez, Amanda Peña-Echeverría, Sarah Leray, and Francisco Suarez

Altiplano salt flats in northern Chile are areas of high hydrological and ecological importance, due to the availability of water in extremely arid environments. Groundwater dynamics in these areas are complex, largely because of density driven flow. The Salar de Huasco (20.2°S; 68.8°W; 4,164 m a.s.l.) is a salt flat located in an endorheic basin in the Chilean altiplano, which has little anthropogenic disturbance. The main surface water expressions in the basin are a shallow saline lagoon with an area of ∼2 km2, and the Collacagua river that infiltrates ∼8 km north of the lagoon. The salt flat counts with two monitoring stations, with meteorological, soil and groundwater sensors. Amongst other geophysical methods, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data have been acquired on the salt flat during austral spring. Six 160m ERT profiles were measured using a Schlumberger array, in the study area. Two profiles were measured outside the salt flat, where the Collacagua river completely reinfiltrates. Two other profiles were measured inside the salt flat, near one of the monitoring sites; and the last two were measured along its edge, at the second monitoring site. The profiles were inverted using pyGIMLi, an open-source python library. The inversion models revealed three main geo-electrical units: a resistive unit (∼600 Ωm), interpreted as dry sediment or ignimbrite, an intermediate unit (∼100 Ωm), corresponding to freshwater-saturated sediment, and a rather conductive unit (∼40 Ωm), associated with sediment saturated in water with higher salinity, or sediments with a smaller grain size saturated with freshwater. The preliminary interpretation of the models indicates a groundwater depth between 0 and 10 m, and a brine-freshwater mixing zone reaching a minimum depth of 20 m in the northernmost monitoring station. The spatial distribution of these structures supports a conceptual model of an upwelling of freshwater pushed from beneath by a denser saline wedge, never considered at the study site. The ERT profiles allow to distinguish vertical and horizontal variations in electrical resistivity, aiding to further understand and characterize the groundwater systems in this salt flat. If confirmed by complementary measurements and analyses, this upwelling groundwater flow could be significant in maintaining superficial ecosystems. 

How to cite: Farah, B., Yáñez, G., Peña-Echeverría, A., Leray, S., and Suarez, F.: Geophysical insights into the shallow groundwater system of the Salar de Huasco, northern Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10130, 2025.

EGU25-10342 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

On the Contributions of Environmental Magnetism for Exploring the Critical Zone: A Case Study in an Urban Environment of a Tropical Megacity 

Andrea Ustra, Letícia Rangel Dantas, Rosely Imbernon, Janine Araújo do Carmo, Ricardo Hirata, and Fabiana Pioker

Environmental magnetism uses rock and mineral magnetic methods to study changes of magnetic minerals influenced by various environmental processes. The field is well-established and has significantly contributed to our understanding of past and present environmental changes on Earth, including those driven by land use. Magnetic methods are used to identify ferromagnetic minerals, which serve as tracers for anthropogenic pollutants. Besides being non-destructive, these methods are fast and cost-effective when compared to chemical analyses. The magnetic properties of contaminated soils can provide information about the transformations of the environment affected by the degradation of organic matter, enriching our knowledge of the spatial and temporal evolution of the pollutant and the impacted area. In this work we present the environmental magnetism study conducted in the São Paulo Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) seed site, an endeavor to understand anthropogenic effects on groundwater, soils, and vegetation in a tropical megacity that has experienced diverse urban transformations over time. The multidisciplinary team of São Paulo CZO’ scientists approached the following main questions: (1) How are soils, water and vegetation resources in a tropical megacity responding to natural and anthropogenic drivers? and (2) How can a critical zone observatory in an urban environment advance the understanding of the critical zone response to natural and anthropogenic drivers? We hypothesize that CZOs can more effectively identify and monitor biogeochemical processes in urban environments, where land is heavily degraded. This study allowed a better understanding of the architecture and dynamic of the urbanization impacted CZ, revealed by magnetic signatures that indicated Fe-bearing minerals transformations driven by changes in redox conditions. Our results also reveal striking differences between the analyzed soils that can be linked to anthropogenic activities. More specifically, magnetic properties identified one important soil interface, which show mineral phases and grain size transformations of Fe-bearing mineral at depth. Characterizing the architecture and dynamic processes of the subsurface in urbanized areas provides a comprehensive understanding of how human-induced changes impact the natural environment.

How to cite: Ustra, A., Dantas, L. R., Imbernon, R., do Carmo, J. A., Hirata, R., and Pioker, F.: On the Contributions of Environmental Magnetism for Exploring the Critical Zone: A Case Study in an Urban Environment of a Tropical Megacity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10342, 2025.

EGU25-10359 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.6

Investigating Scale Effects on Petrophysical Relationships: Comparison between Laboratory and Field Approaches to estimate Soil Water Content from Electrical Resistivity 

Clémence Pavageau, Pierre Fischer, Damien Jougnot, Philippe Cosenza, and Laurent Caner

The application of geophysical tools provides soil information without disturbing the soil. For the analysis of hydrological properties, one of the most commonly used geophysical methods is electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The electrical resistivity measures the soil ability to counteract the passage of an electrical current. Since liquid water is the conductive phase of a soil (i.e., where ions act as charge carriers), its measure can be employed as an estimation of soil water content. However, such quantification demands the use of a petrophysical relationship. Petrophysical calibration is crucial and requires a good knowledge of the soil, numerous measurements of both electrical resistivity and water content on the studied soil. Considering the current state of the art, two methods are commonly employed for this calibration. The first method, at the sample scale, is made in laboratory with cylindrical undisturbed soil samples with four electrodes and tracks the changes in water content by the variation in sample weight during desiccation. The second approach, at the field scale, is made in-situ and consists of installing Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes in different soil horizons below a profile of electrodes used to make electrical resistivity tomography. This study examines the effect of scale on petrophysical relationships due to investigated volumes by comparing the petrophysical relationship calibrated from three different methods with three different footprints on the same soil profile. This research is developed on the Hydrogeological Experimental Site of the University of Poitiers, on an unsaturated soil (Cambisol (Luvic)) developed on Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary formations. The soil at the site is composed of silt and clays, with sandier soil lenses and a high proportion of flints, up to 50% in the first 90 cm. The field acquisition set-up consists of 48 electrodes on the soil surface spaced of 0.5 m to perform time-lapse ERT (the largest footprint), of four trenches equipped with TDR probes and quadrupole of electrodes at 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 cm depth (the intermediate footprint), and of 20 undisturbed soil samples collected in 9.5 cm diameter and 5 cm thickness cylinders analyzed in the laboratory at 25°C (the smaller footprint). In-situ measurements are affected by weather conditions and soil water content, meaning that deeper soil horizons show a limited variation in water content. Our laboratory characterization allows us to explore a larger range of soil moisture and to calibrate the petrophysical relation with more accurate precision. However, the sample may not be spatially representative. Our first results demonstrate that the three methods show similar trends with a notable difference in the amplitude of the values obtained for electrical resistivity. These findings enable a deeper comprehension of scale effects in the configuration of petrophysical relationships with the aim of improving accuracy of models to estimate soil water content from ERT measurements.

How to cite: Pavageau, C., Fischer, P., Jougnot, D., Cosenza, P., and Caner, L.: Investigating Scale Effects on Petrophysical Relationships: Comparison between Laboratory and Field Approaches to estimate Soil Water Content from Electrical Resistivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10359, 2025.

EGU25-12463 | Orals | HS8.2.6 | Highlight

Investigating solute transport and reaction using a mechanistically coupled geochemical and geophysical modeling approach: application to calcite dissolution 

Flore Rembert, Nicole Marie Fernandez, Linda Luquot, Roger Guérin, and Damien Jougnot

This study investigates the promising use of geoelectrical methods for monitoring groundwater contamination and mineral reactivity. Geoelectrical methods are mostly used as qualitative detection tools for static subsurface characterization. However, we show that geoelectrical signals are complementary tools for the quantitative characterization of chemical species transport and reaction in the porous matrix by developing a coupled mechanistic model. We examine calcite dissolution as an effective proof-of-concept since calcite dissolution is a chemical process occurring ubiquitously in the Earth’s subsurface. Our investigation focuses on the impact of the reactive zone’s position, extent, and intensity of geoelectrical signals under various inlet conditions generating contrasted dissolution regimes. We conducted five experiments on flow-through columns filled with calcite grains and equipped with geoelectrical monitoring on sequential channels along the column. Three experiments explore the self-potential method and two others monitor the complex electrical conductivity from the spectral induced polarization method. pH in the column at two locations is also monitored. Additionally, the outlet fluid is sampled to monitor major ion concentrations, pH, and electrical conductivity. Thus, the study presents a unique dataset that combines traditional physicochemical monitoring of water samples with geoelectrical acquisition on multiple channels along the column. The quantitative analysis of the geoelectrical signals is achieved through their prediction using a 1D numerical workflow that combines reactive transport simulation with petrophysical modeling based on the evolution of the pore space and the geochemistry. Reactive transport is simulated by developing a CrunchFlow code, which well-reproduces the outlet pore water concentrations and pH. The comparison of the predicted geoelectrical signals with the experimental data clearly shows the characterization of the spatial and temporal distributions of the reaction rates, whatever the reaction rate and the reactive zone extent. Self-potential monitoring allows the spatialization of the reactive zone from the electrodiffusive coupling and enables the detection of a low dissolution regime contrary to what is observed from the outlet water electrical conductivity monitoring. The complex electrical conductivity shows significant variations during the intense dissolution regime. Water electrical conductivity, porosity, and the real electrical conductivity of the sample are successfully retrieved from petrophysical computation. This innovative study in which geophysical and geochemical methods are intrinsically intertwined paves the way to broader and more interdisciplinary studies of solute transport and reactivity in porous media and in a more general perspective, the presented methodology applies to contaminant transport.

How to cite: Rembert, F., Fernandez, N. M., Luquot, L., Guérin, R., and Jougnot, D.: Investigating solute transport and reaction using a mechanistically coupled geochemical and geophysical modeling approach: application to calcite dissolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12463, 2025.

EGU25-12834 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Combination of Active and Passive Seismic Methods with Artificial Intelligence for Hydrogeophysical Monitoring of the Vadose Zone 

Ludovic Bodet, José Cunha Teixeira, Agnès Rivière, Santiago G. Solazzi, Alexandrine Gesret, Ramon Sanchez Gonzalez, and Marine Dangeard

Despite significant advancements and numerous applications in the study of the critical zone, seismic methods remain underutilized for exploring the vadose zone compared to hydrogeophysical approaches dominated by electrical and electromagnetic methods. These latter methods are often preferred due to their sensitivity to water content and salinity. However, seismic techniques offer a valuable complement through their sensitivity to mechanical properties essential for characterizing subsurface heterogeneity, as well as key hydraulic parameters such as porosity, permeability, and saturation. This is particularly relevant in clay-rich environments, where clays tend to obscure saturation contrasts for electrical and electromagnetic methods. The aim here is not to pit these approaches against each other but to highlight their complementarity, as recently demonstrated in studies that also underscored the efficiency of electrical methods in terms of implementation and interpretation. While the combination of seismic refraction tomography (SRT) and surface-wave dispersion analysis (MASW) produces useful images for identifying significant saturation contrasts, it remains limited in detecting subtle spatial or temporal variations. These limitations are especially pronounced in time-lapse experiments, which in addition are often complex and resource-intensive to implement. Current inversion techniques struggle to represent continuous saturation variations between the surface and the water table, and interpretations frequently adopt a binary perspective, distinguishing only between partially and fully saturated zones. A promising alternative lies in the use of recently developed rock physics models capable of simulating the impact of saturation variations on seismic-wave velocities. Recent studies have shown that surface-wave dispersion is particularly sensitive to these variations, providing insights into the influence of hydrological and hydrogeological dynamics on passive seismic results. Although this approach is rapidly advancing in environmental seismology, it remains relatively underexplored in hydrogeophysics and agrogeophysics. Through examples obtained at a study site, we illustrate how passive seismic methods could enable precise monitoring of hydrological and mechanical properties. We also show that simple neural networks can effectively extrapolate water table maps from 2D seismic velocity data obtained through hybrid approaches, using a limited number of spatial piezometric observations. Finally, we test how high-density surface-wave dispersion monitoring data, combined with artificial intelligence algorithms (inspired by neural machine translation and speech recognition architectures), can deliver precise petrophysical and hydrogeological descriptions.

How to cite: Bodet, L., Cunha Teixeira, J., Rivière, A., Solazzi, S. G., Gesret, A., Sanchez Gonzalez, R., and Dangeard, M.: Combination of Active and Passive Seismic Methods with Artificial Intelligence for Hydrogeophysical Monitoring of the Vadose Zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12834, 2025.

EGU25-12844 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Geophysical contributions to the multidisciplinary reconstruction of the “Bleichesee” in a floodplain near Nördlingen, Southern Germany 

Ulrike Werban, Ema Zvara, Marco Pohle, Matteo Bauckholt, Snježana Pejdanović, Iris O. Nießen, Lukas Werther, Peter Kühn, and Christoph Zielhofer

The town of Nördlingen is one of the few remaining medieval towns in Germany. In the Middle Ages, Nördlingen was a centre of tanning and dyeing, which shaped hydraulic engineering along the river Eger and thus had a considerable impact on the floodplains close to the town. The DFG funded SPP 2361 ‘On the way to the fluvial anthroposphere’ focusses on investigating such pre-industrial floodplains in Central Europe and their development. Within the sub-project ‘Local Pathways to the Fluvial Anthroposphere at Echaz (Rhine) and Eger (Danube)’, the focus is on the multidisciplinary reconstruction of the land use of the floodplains and the reconstruction of the effects of urban crafts and waste disposal on floodplain pollution. To this end, we use multidisciplinary approaches, including the digitisation of historical maps, the integration of digital terrain models, geophysical investigations and the analysis of sediment cores from the Eger floodplain.

Here, we focus on the results of near-surface geophysical investigations carried out as part of the comprehensive floodplain exploration at the Bleichesee (a former bleaching lake), in which we used (1) electromagnetic induction (EMI) for area-wide mapping and (2) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) for transect-wise mapping. With this combined approach, we were able to delineate the gravel bodies of the river Eger, which are characterised by a coarse-grained sediments, and identify regions with fine-grained alluvial deposits and anthropogenic backfills. Based on these results, sites were selected for driving core and hand drillings for detailed sediment analysis. In addition, direct push-based investigations can provide high-resolution vertical information on various subsurface properties (electrical conductivity, colour spectrum, hydraulic conductivity, etc.), whereby we focused on colour profiles at the Nördlingen site when investigating the Bleichesee lake. These were logged along a transect at intervals of 25 centimetres and thus provide impressive insights into the deposits and filling of the Bleichesee.

At present, the results of the geophysical measurements and in-situ descriptions by means of driving core and hand drillings as well as the extensive laboratory analyses of the sediment samples are being compiled. The aim is the chronostratigraphic description of the Eger floodplain and its history of pollution. In this respect, geophysical proxies can provide valuable support.

How to cite: Werban, U., Zvara, E., Pohle, M., Bauckholt, M., Pejdanović, S., Nießen, I. O., Werther, L., Kühn, P., and Zielhofer, C.: Geophysical contributions to the multidisciplinary reconstruction of the “Bleichesee” in a floodplain near Nördlingen, Southern Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12844, 2025.

Geophysical methods are extensively used to assess contaminated sites. However, the validation of geophysical exploration results remains crucial for practical applications of these methods. In this study, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) were used to investigate an abandoned hydrocarbon-contaminated site in Jiangsu, China. Dense survey lines were drawn across the contaminated site to generate continuous monitoring data. In addition, 20 boreholes were strategically drilled at identified anomalous points using geophysical methods. Multiple groundwater samples were analyzed from these boreholes and analyzed hydrocarbon concentrations. The obtained geophysical data were compared with groundwater data to assess the hydrocarbon extent and degree at the study site, as well as to evaluate the reliability of the geophysical survey results. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of continuous resistivity profiles in mapping the contaminant plume, showing consistent contaminant migration directions with the groundwater flow. The contaminant plume patterns obtained by interpolating groundwater sample contaminant concentrations were in line with the resistivity profiles. Groundwater samples from boreholes in high-resistivity zones exhibited higher hydrocarbon concentrations than corresponding regulatory limits. On the other hand, GPR successfully identified enhanced reflective signals associated with the presence of hydrocarbons, necessitating comprehensive interpretations that integrate these findings with resistivity results. The analysis results of unsatisfactory geophysical data in relation to the specific site conditions indicated that soil layer heterogeneity was the main source of anomalous electrical responses. This study validated the accuracy and efficiency of geophysical methods in investigating the migration of hydrocarbon plumes and assessing their contamination levels in groundwater.

How to cite: Yu, H. and Liu, Z.: Evaluating the reliability of geophysical methods for investigating the migration of a hydrocarbon plume: validation by sample analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14221, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14221, 2025.

EGU25-16282 | Orals | HS8.2.6

Utilizing prepolarization SNMR for soil moisture measurements 

Tobias Splith, Gulmira Beisembina, Stephan Costabel, and Mike Müller-Petke

Many biological, chemical, and hydrological processes in the soil depend on soil moisture. Although there exist numerous methods for determining soil moisture, the majority of them are either intrusive or measure soil moisture only indirectly. The latter case requires a calibration, which can be difficult because of the heterogeneity found in many soils. SNMR is a non-invasive method that can directly detect water content. It is commonly used to characterize subsurface aquifers. Typically, a surface transmitter coil is used to transmit an excitation pulse at the local Larmor frequency and the NMR response from the water in the subsurface is detected by a surface receiver coil. Recently, efforts have been made to apply the SNMR method to soil moisture measurements. To achieve this, we use a compact SNMR layout with a prepolarization coil that applies a prepolarization field before each experiment to amplify the spin magnetization at the footprint of the coil layout. Additionally, it becomes necessary to reduce the duration of the excitation pulses and to increase the pulse amplitude instead. In doing so, the effective dead time is reduced to enable the detection of the expected short relaxation times in soils.

The short pulses of high amplitude and the prepolarization switch-off present new challenges for the modeling of the acquired data. We have enhanced the forward modeling operator by the implementation of a numerical solver for the Bloch-equations. This allows us to account for the so-called Bloch-Siegert effect, which influences the measurements at high pulse amplitudes and can lead to significant errors in the SNMR inversion results if not considered properly. Furthermore, the solver of the Bloch-equations allows us to simulate the macroscopic magnetization during the prepolarization field switch-off and, thereby, account for non-adiabaticity during this time.

The new modeling and measurement system was evaluated using water-filled pallet boxes, and a good agreement between measured and simulated data was achieved. We continued with a case study on a peatland near Gnarrenburg, where we performed measurements on peat and mineral soil to demonstrate the applicability of the PP-SNMR method and the improved modeling. The soil moisture measured with PP-SNMR underestimates the original water content of undisturbed samples that have been taken for ground truth. A complementary NMR study in the laboratory shows that water in the micropores, for which the relaxation time is shorter or equal to the PP-SNMR dead time, cannot yet be captured in the field. Furthermore, the vertical resolution properties of PP-SNMR are not sufficient to identify distinct peat layers with thicknesses of less than 10 cm. However, apart from these issues, the soil water in mesopores and macropores is detected correctly and can be accurately characterized by the measured NMR relaxation properties.

Measuring relaxation times shorter than 6 ms still poses a major challenge, which we intend to overcome with further refinements to the receiving electronics and measurement scheme.

How to cite: Splith, T., Beisembina, G., Costabel, S., and Müller-Petke, M.: Utilizing prepolarization SNMR for soil moisture measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16282, 2025.

EGU25-18089 | Orals | HS8.2.6

 Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring of an Infiltration Test in an Agricultural Context within a Miscanthus Parcel  

Frédéric Nguyen, Clément De Lanève, Abdeljalil Boutarfa, Gilles Swerts, Aurore Degrée, and David Caterina

An artificial run-off hydrogeophysical experiment was conducted in cultivated fields (Gembloux (BE) to study the infiltration patterns of water in the transition between an empty beet field and a band where miscanthus has been planted. Such set-ups are designed to mitigate the flooding risk and the erosion from runoff during intense rainfall events. The objective of this experiment was to determine with geophysical methods whether miscanthus enhance water infiltration in addition to blocking mud and slow water flow. The experiment was repeated 3 times, each time next to each other with the same experimental setup: a 1-meter-wide and 6-meter-long long band isolated with plastic boards, 3m is uncovered and the other 3m is covered with miscanthus plant base and roots. The band has a slight inclination, and saline water was poured to create a surface run-off at a rate of 1L/s at the top of the band. A primary longitudinal profile composed of 16 electrodes (0.4m spacing) was used to monitor the infiltration, with measurements taken approximately every 2.5 minutes. Two perpendicular profiles (4.5m long, 0.3m spacing) in each section were used to do background measurements and after the experiment.  

A first analysis has been carried out on apparent resistivity to avoid any inversion bias. Each parcel shows a greater starting mean apparent resistivity in the miscanthus parcels. During the infiltration, apparent resistivities decrease more rapidly in the miscanthus parcel during the first minutes of the experiment and reach a lower value than in the bare parcel. Subsequently, resistivities in both parcels decrease at a slower rate but do not reach a steady state, even after 3 hours of infiltration. Once water injection ceases, resistivities quickly stabilize within a few minutes at a lower value than the starting value but higher than at the end of injection.  

Timelapse inversion revealed a decrease in resistivity in the top 40cm soil after only a few minutes following the start of the water injection. We estimate that the layer below this horizon corresponds to the plough layer, where the higher density and lower permeability of the soil beneath this level doesn’t allow the infiltration at this time scale. However, inversions of perpendicular profiles reveal lateral extension of the resistivity decrease in the parcels without miscanthus, a pattern which is absent in the miscanthus parcel. 

Further data processing will focus on the inversion problem and on the influence of the surface water height during the water injection and pedophysics experiments will allow us to estimate the water content. Along with other inversion parameters, this will help provide a better understanding of the dynamics of infiltration rates in the different parcels. 

How to cite: Nguyen, F., De Lanève, C., Boutarfa, A., Swerts, G., Degrée, A., and Caterina, D.:  Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring of an Infiltration Test in an Agricultural Context within a Miscanthus Parcel , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18089, 2025.

EGU25-18804 | Posters on site | HS8.2.6

Laboratory NMR relaxometry provides ground truth for prepolarized surface NMR measurements 

Stephan Costabel, Gulmira Taupikhovna Beisembina, Tobias Splith, Thomas Hiller, and Mike Müller-Petke

A new sensor for non-invasive soil moisture detection, based on the principle of prepolarized surface-nuclear magnetic resonance (PP-SNMR) (Splith, T., et al., 2024) was tested on a profile covering the transition from mineral to peat soil in the Gnarrenburger Moor in northwest Germany. This prototype has a size of 2.0m by 2.0m and consists of distinct coil systems for prepolarization, stimulation and detection of the NMR response of the protons of the soil water molecules in the Earth’s magnetic field. To provide ground truth for the in-situ measurements, we carried out laboratory NMR experiments using undisturbed soil samples from the PP-SNMR measurement positions at depths between 0.0m to 0.66m. However, the question arises how comparable the relaxation properties of PP-SNMR and laboratory NMR can be, because the latter works at artificial magnetic fields, i.e. at different Larmor frequencies (fL).

To identify a possible frequency-dependency of the resulting relaxation time distributions (RTD), we used two NMR devices in the laboratory: a single-sided NMR system (PM25, Magritek, fL =13.2 MHz) and a core scanner (Helios, Vista Clara, fL =0.5 MHz). The RTDs were calculated using the Matlab-based NUCLEUS-Software (Hiller, T., 2024), which provides confidence intervals for initial amplitude and logarithmic mean relaxation time to allow improved statistical analyses.

Within their individual confidence intervals, the T2 RTDs measured in the laboratory are in agreement to each other and also to the RTDs of T2* measured in the field for relaxation times >6 ms, which corresponds to the effective dead time of the PP-SNMR prototype. Correspondingly, the PP-SNMR moisture content from soil regions with significant amount of micropores with T2(*)<6 ms is underestimated, whereas the water content estimates from the two laboratory NMR instruments agree within their individual confidence intervals. Due to the lower magnetic field, the signal-to-noise ratio of the core scanner is strongly reduced compared to the single-sided device and leads thus to a higher uncertainty.

A reduction of the effective PP-SNMR dead time would be desirable to detect also the micropores of the soil. Apart from that, laboratory NMR and PP-SNMR provide comparable results, at least for the T2(*) relaxation, and we conclude that laboratory NMR studies can support PP-SNMR field campaigns. However, this observation does not hold for the T1 relaxation behavior, for which a strong frequency dispersion, at least for weakly decomposed peat soils, is evident. Our future studies aim on the relationship between NMR relaxation time distribution and the water retention properties of peat soils.

Acknowledgements

This research is funded by the German Research Foundation (CO 1738/1-1).

References

Hiller, T. (2024), ThoHiller/nmr-nucleus: Version v.0.2.1 (v.0.2.1). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10647253.

Splith,T., Hiller, T, Costabel, S., Müller-Petke, M., (2024), Soil moisture measurements with compact prepolarization surface NMR sensors, MRPM, 2024.

How to cite: Costabel, S., Beisembina, G. T., Splith, T., Hiller, T., and Müller-Petke, M.: Laboratory NMR relaxometry provides ground truth for prepolarized surface NMR measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18804, 2025.

Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) is being increasingly applied to support hydrogeological studies by providing high-resolution images that delineate geological structures, groundwater resources, or soil moisture variability. More recently developed as a monitoring tool, ERT provides time-series data of groundwater content over surface areas of hundreds of square meters, complementing point-based monitoring approaches. ERT systems can be deployed permanently, collecting high-spatial resolution data at varying time frequencies, from days to sub-hourly acquisitions, and delivering near-real-time information. Advances in petrophysical relationships allow changes in electrical resistivity to be converted into calibrated soil moisture models, which feed hydrological models.

In addition to water content, temperature is another critical factor affecting electrical resistivity measurements, with impacts as strong as 2% changes in resistivity per °C in rock or soil materials. Isolating signals caused by hydrological processes in ERT time-series requires assessing subsurface temperature changes and correcting for their effects on resistivity. There is no strong consensus on how to handle these issues in processing ERT monitoring experiments. Sinusoidal 1D models representing seasonal temperature variations are commonly applied to estimate subsurface temperatures. These models define phase lags and damping of air temperature at depths using a damping factor, calibrated with in-situ data from vertical temperature profiles. While simple and independent of measured temperature time-series, these models may introduce biases when air temperature does not follow a sinusoidal seasonal pattern. Alternative approaches include interpolating data from temperature sensors at different depths, or applying heat transfer modelling in 1D, 2D or 3D.

However, a remaining challenge lies in the way the temperature models are being used to correct the resistivity models. Several approaches have been proposed, and in general, resistivity values of each cell of resistivity models is simply corrected using corresponding temperature model values. Such approaches don’t take the ERT data resolution linked with the measurement sequence into account, and the effect this may have on the sensitivity of the measurement to temperature changes. Typically for applications with large or small electrode spacings, or arrays with varying spacings, this approach may introduce relatively large artefacts on the corrected resistivity models. Here, we propose a new correction strategy based on estimating the sensitivity of the ERT dataset to temperature changes via implementing forward modelling onto a temperature corrected homogeneous 1-ohm resistivity model. We compare existing and novel approaches for subsurface temperature modelling and trial our innovative approach on a real ERT dataset acquired in field conditions.

How to cite: Watlet, A., Kaufmann, O., and Gourdol, L.: Temperature correction of electrical resistivity models in time-laspe ERT experiments: towards the integration of model resolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21714, 2025.

EGU25-222 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Pesticide Leaching: Insights from the Hindon River Basin, India 

Kartikkumar Jadav and Basant Yadav

Pesticide leaching into groundwater poses a significant risk related to water security and public health, particularly in intensively cultivated, overexploited and contaminated regions. Farmers in most developing nations select pesticides based on their pest-killing efficiency and cost to increase crop yield and economic benefits rather than their potential environmental impacts. Therefore, this study estimated the leaching potential of 31 commonly used pesticides in the upstream (US), midstream (MS), and downstream (DS) regions of the Hindon River basin (HRB), India. The leaching indices such as the Groundwater Ubiquity Score, LEACH Index, Modified LEACH Index, Hornsby Index, LIX Index, LIN Index, and Global Leachability Index were employed. Key pesticide properties, such as water solubility, carbon-water partition coefficient, half-life, vapor pressure, and Henry's law constant, were used to calculate all the indices. In addition, pesticide consumption patterns and hydrogeological data—such as soil type, rainfall, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater levels—were incorporated into the analysis to pinpoint the location and specific pesticides. The results indicate that pesticides like sulfosulfuron, metsulfuron methyl, imidacloprid, atrazine, carbendazim, dimethoate, and glyphosate are major contributors to groundwater contamination due to their mobility, persistence, and widespread usage. Specifically, the US regions, with shallow groundwater levels (< 8 mbgl) and high annual rainfall (~1100 mm), showed elevated leaching risks from carbendazim and dimethoate pesticides. However, the MS and DS regions, characterized by moderate rainfall (600–800 mm), moderate groundwater levels (> 12 mbgl) and higher aquifer hydraulic conductivity (33 m/day), exhibited significant leaching risks from pesticides like sulfosulfuron, metsulfuron methyl, imidacloprid, and atrazine. Instead of the low leaching potential of pesticides, such as fipronil, chlorpyrifos, and lambda-cyhalothrin, their residues may be detectable in groundwater due to high application rates. This study highlights the complex interplay between pesticide leaching risks based on the HRB consumption pattern and hydrogeological conditions. The results of this study would be helpful for pesticide regulation, the adoption of less persistent compounds, enhanced monitoring programs, safeguarding public health, and identifying potential recharge locations for agriculturally managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR). The findings suggest that future studies should focus on regular field monitoring of pesticide residues, evaluating aquifer vulnerability under varying pesticide consumption and climatic conditions, and incorporating advanced modeling tools to predict long-term contamination risks to ensure groundwater sustainability in the HRB.

How to cite: Jadav, K. and Yadav, B.: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Pesticide Leaching: Insights from the Hindon River Basin, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-222, 2025.

EGU25-599 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

Assessment of Groundwater Quality of Madhya Pradesh, India using Data-Driven Approaches 

Shubhangi Umare, Ajay Kumar Thawait, and Sumit H. Dhawane

Groundwater quality assessment is crucial for ensuring safe drinking water and sustainable resource management. However, traditional monitoring methods involving extensive sampling and laboratory analysis are time-consuming and costly. The present study proposes an efficient approach for predicting groundwater quality in Madhya Pradesh, India using data-driven models and an entropy-weighted water quality index (EWQI). A large spatiotemporal dataset of different parameters of groundwater quality like pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), calcium (Ca2⁺), total hardness (TH), nitrate (NO₃⁻), sodium (Na⁺), chloride (Cl⁻), potassium (K⁺), sulfate (SO₄2⁻), magnesium (Mg2⁺), and fluoride (F⁻) from the year (2003-2023) across Madhya Pradesh was analysed. All advanced data-driven models such as Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were developed to predict the EWQI using easily measurable parameters pH, TH and TDS. The individual ability of the models was assessed using statistical analysis with the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). During the training phase, all models such as RF, SVM, XGBoost, and ANN proved excellent predictive capabilities, achieving an R2 value exceeding 0.90 while maintaining minimal errors when pH, TH, and TDS were considered as input variables. The overall outcomes confirmed that the data-driven models could accurately estimate the EWQI, closely matching the actual values with an R2 greater than 0.90. This finding highlights the model's ability to predict a reliable overview of water quality for a small area using easily measurable parameters.

Keywords: Groundwater, Data-driven, Drinking water, Water Quality Index, Machine learning

How to cite: Umare, S., Thawait, A. K., and Dhawane, S. H.: Assessment of Groundwater Quality of Madhya Pradesh, India using Data-Driven Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-599, 2025.

Farmland leaching process will cause water eutrophication, and then pollute groundwater, so the monitoring and research of farmland leaching process is particularly important. The existing monitoring methods include leaching pan method, clay head method, large lysimeter, etc. The principle of these monitoring methods is agronomy and soil science, and the thickness of the monitoring soil is generally not more than 2 meters underground, which is generally difficult to achieve stratified monitoring. Other disadvantages include large soil disturbance.
There are many methods for groundwater stratification monitoring, which are based on the principles of geology and hydrogeology. The majority of monitoring methods are accomplished through various monitoring Wells. The monitoring well types include shallow monitoring well, deep monitoring well, inclined well, cluster monitoring well, nested monitoring well and continuous multi-channel monitoring well. The monitoring depth of monitoring Wells is generally greater than 10 meters, but the concept of stratification is based on hydrogeological aquifers and is different from the concept of stratification required for soil leaching monitoring.
In view of this situation, a method of in-situ monitoring of soil leaching and groundwater profile is proposed in this paper. The theoretical basis of the 3-meter stratification is agronomy and soil science, and the theoretical basis of the 3-meter stratification is geology and hydrogeology. Based on the stratified well formation technology of shallow critical formation, the newly developed soil sensor directional positioning buried device in the well is used to install the soil sensor and pore water negative pressure sampling tube to the predetermined position by layers through the monitoring well, and the data is automatically collected, stored, transmitted and displayed through the instrument integrating soil sensor, well sensor and environmental factor sensor. The monitoring well, soil sensor, groundwater sensor, pore water negative pressure sampling tube and monitoring instrument form an independent monitoring point, and a monitoring network is formed by combining multiple monitoring points. This monitoring method can realize the fine monitoring of the whole soil-groundwater profile, and the minimum layer thickness within 3 meters underground can reach 0.2 meters.

How to cite: Feng, C.: Study on in-situ stratified monitoring method of soil leaching and groundwater profile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-784, 2025.

This study conducted particle flow and chemical precipitation experiments to investigate the effect of physical-chemical combined clogging on the permeability of geotextile envelope. The results show that there is a synergistic effect between physical clogging caused by soil particle accumulation and chemical clogging due to salt precipitation. Chemical precipitation exacerbates physical clogging, while physical clogging promotes the formation of chemical precipitation. The chemical precipitates on the upstream of the geotextile envelope binds the particles to each other and to the fibers of the geotextile envelope, while on the downstream, precipitates tends to encapsulate the fibers, with less physical clogging. After combined clogging, the permeability coefficient of the geotextile envelope decreases rapidly with the increasing of the clogging material, and then decreases slowly. When the area density of the clogging material is less than 91.02 g/m², it shows a linear decrease, and then followed by a logarithmic decrease. Physical-chemical combined clogging is more severe than single physical or chemical clogging. After the permeability stabilizes, for the same clogging mass, the decrease in permeability caused by combined clogging is 1.2 times and 2 times greater than that caused by physical and chemical clogging, respectively.

How to cite: Qin, S., Wu, J., Guo, C., and Yao, C.: Effect of physical-chemical combined clogging on the permeability of geotextile envelopes for subsurface drainage systems in arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1967, 2025.

EGU25-11976 | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

Assessment of Emerging Pollutants in Groundwater Resources of El Hierro and La Palma (Canary Islands): A Comparative Study 

Samanta Gasco Cavero, Jon Jimenez, Carlos Baquedano, Jorge Martínez, Rodrigo Sariago, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Juan Carlos Santamarta, and Alejandro García-Gil

Emerging pollutants (EPs) are contaminants detected in water bodies that lack thorough prior investigation, resulting in limited regulatory frameworks for their control. This poses a significant threat to regions heavily reliant on groundwater for agriculture, drinking water, and other essential uses. The Canary Islands, particularly El Hierro and La Palma, serve as critical case studies due to their unique ecosystems and dependence on groundwater. El Hierro, designated as a UNESCO biosphere reserve in 2000, operates primarily on renewable energy, whereas La Palma exhibits diverse hydrological dynamics influenced by agricultural and urban activities.

A comprehensive analysis of 70 EPs was conducted at 19 sampling points in El Hierro and at 14 locations across La Palma, utilizing high-performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS). The study focused on five EP categories: ultraviolet (UV) filters, UV blockers/stabilizers, parabens, pharmaceutically active compounds (PhACs), and pesticides. In El Hierro, pesticide residues were absent; however, significant concentrations of UV filters, UV stabilizers, and PhACs were detected, with La Frontera municipality showing the highest contamination. In contrast, La Palma exhibited notable concentrations of PhACs and UV stabilizers, particularly in Breña Baja and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Pesticides, including imidacloprid and acetamiprid, were detected at concerning levels in La Palma's groundwater.

Cluster analysis revealed spatial patterns of EP distribution, segmenting the islands into distinct zones based on pollutant concentrations. In El Hierro, four clusters were identified, with sampling depth correlating positively with EP levels, highlighting potential vertical contamination gradients. Similarly, La Palma showed three to five clusters delineating contamination hotspots, aiding in the identification of priority areas for remediation. These findings underscore the urgent need for preventive measures to mitigate EP entry into the water cycle from domestic, agricultural, and industrial sources, beyond traditional remediation approaches post-contamination.

Comparative analysis between the islands demonstrated shared contamination trends but also emphasized unique local factors influencing EP presence. This highlights the necessity of tailored management strategies to protect groundwater resources in these fragile environments. Future research should focus on elucidating the mechanisms driving high EP concentrations at various depths and assessing long-term impacts on ecosystem and human health.

This study advocates for comprehensive regulatory frameworks and proactive strategies to prevent EP contamination, ensuring the preservation of groundwater resources essential to the sustainability of the Canary Islands.

 

How to cite: Gasco Cavero, S., Jimenez, J., Baquedano, C., Martínez, J., Sariago, R., Marazuela, M. Á., Santamarta, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Assessment of Emerging Pollutants in Groundwater Resources of El Hierro and La Palma (Canary Islands): A Comparative Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11976, 2025.

EGU25-15479 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

Application of generalized linear regression (GLR) models to study spatially varying nitrates concentration in groundwater in a large paddy area of Northern Italy 

Petra Baják, Paolo Bricchi, Marco Masetti, Daniele Pedretti, Giulio Gilardi, Arianna Facchi, and Alessandro Sorichetta

Italy is the leading rice producer in Europe, with 92% of its production concentrated in the Piedmont–Lombardy rice basin in Northern Italy. To increase yields, farmers use fertilizers, which can potentially lead to nitrate contamination of groundwater. However, there is limited research in Italy on the extent to which rice production contributes to nitrate pollution. Assessing the environmental impact of rice production is therefore crucial, as water pollution is a major issue for the sustainability of rice-growing regions. This is particularly important as the protection of water from nitrate pollution caused by agricultural activities is a key aspect of European Union legislation, specifically the Nitrates Directive 91/676/EEC.

This study focuses on the Lomellina area, a sub-region of the Piedmont–Lombardy rice basin, located on the left bank of the Po River and along the Ticino River. This area has 90.000 ha of irrigated crops out of a total agricultural area of 125,000 ha, of which 70% is devoted to rice cropping.

Our objectives were to identify the factors controlling nitrate concentrations and to assess groundwater vulnerability based on the relationship between observed concentrations and statistically significant explanatory variables. Nitrate concentrations were measured in 17 groundwater samples collected from shallow monitoring wells in June 2024 across the Lomellina area. The factors initially considered for deriving the associated explanatory variables to be used in the analysis were: topography, groundwater recharge and table depth, presence of irrigation canals, vertical hydraulic conductivity, and land use. Generalized linear regression (GLR) models were used to assess the relationships between nitrate concentrations and twelve explanatory variables.

Covariate selection was done based on Akaike's Information Criterion corrected (AICc) and adjusted R2 values. The best GLR model fit (AICc=140.7 and adjusted R2= 0.73) showed that the most important covariates are: topography, slope, groundwater table depth, vertical hydraulic conductivity, and distance to rice fields. These covariates were statistically significant (at a 0.05 level) except for vertical hydraulic conductivity. Nitrate concentration and slope were negatively correlated, while the other covariates showed positive correlation. Next steps will include investigating and addressing spatial autocorrelation, and build a predictive model and explore the use of machine learning techniques.

An improved understanding of the spatially varying relation between nitrate concentrations and influencing factors could be used to produce reliable groundwater vulnerability maps and help to assess the environmental impact of rice cultivation. Our approach highlights the importance of local variability and contributes to discussion on the regional-scale impacts.

This study was carried out in the context of the PROMEDRICE project (https://promedrice.org/; PRIMA-Section2–2022) funded, for the Italian partners, by MUR (Italian Ministry of University and Research).

How to cite: Baják, P., Bricchi, P., Masetti, M., Pedretti, D., Gilardi, G., Facchi, A., and Sorichetta, A.: Application of generalized linear regression (GLR) models to study spatially varying nitrates concentration in groundwater in a large paddy area of Northern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15479, 2025.

EGU25-16765 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

Effects of Controlled Drainage with Subirrigation on Nutrient Concentrations in an Agricultural Field in the Netherlands 

Janou Bonné, Jelte de Bruin, Nikola Rakonjac, Syed Mustafa, Janine de Wit, Martine van der Ploeg, and Ruud Bartholomeus

The rising likelihood of extreme weather events like droughts and floods poses a growing threat to reliable crop production for farmers. Soils may become too dry to support crop growth or too wet and flood, resulting in a partial or total loss of yield. Controlled drainage with subirrigation (CD-SI) offers a potential solution to retain and discharge water in agricultural fields by connecting subsoil drainage pipes to a control pit. This setup allows farmers to manage the water levels independently in the control pit, rather than relying on weir levels which are typically controlled by water authorities. Subirrigation can supply water to the control pit during dry conditions, increasing water pressure in the pipes and causing water to infiltrate the soil, thereby recharging water in the agricultural field. However, as the CD-SI system alters the hydrological functioning of the agricultural water system, it can impact (ground)water nutrient dynamics.

While few studies have examined the effects of CD-SI on nutrient concentrations in agricultural water systems, their findings and interpretations have varied widely. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of a CD-SI system installed in an agricultural field in the Netherlands on nutrient concentrations, compared to a reference field without a drainage system. Continuous field measurements of hydraulic head, soil water potential, and soil moisture content were combined with water quality analyses at nine locations, including five groundwater and two surface water sites. Nutrient concentrations and distributions were compared between the experimental and reference fields over six sampling rounds spanning eight months. Additionally, the input (i.e., groundwater) and output water of the CD-SI system were analysed to assess the nutrient flux through the drainage system.

Our results indicate that following manure application, the experimental field exhibited a greater increase in nutrient concentrations in both shallow and deep groundwater compared to the reference field. During subirrigation, nutrient concentrations in the experimental field followed the trends of the nutrient concentrations of the input water of the system. Surface water nutrient concentrations were not influenced by the CD-SI system’s output. Additionally, there appears to be a spatial relation between the nutrient concentrations and distance to the subirrigation pipes.

These findings provide insights into how CD-SI systems influence nutrient concentrations, and distributions under different operational modes (e.g., subirrigation on/off, free/controlled drainage). The results of this study could help policymakers and farmers determine whether CD-SI systems are a suitable solution for improving the hydrological and nutrient situation in their particular hydrogeological and chemical circumstances.

How to cite: Bonné, J., de Bruin, J., Rakonjac, N., Mustafa, S., de Wit, J., van der Ploeg, M., and Bartholomeus, R.: Effects of Controlled Drainage with Subirrigation on Nutrient Concentrations in an Agricultural Field in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16765, 2025.

EGU25-18972 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.7

Adsorption Dynamics of Atrazine on realistic Polystyrene Nanoplastics: Insights into Co-Contamination Risks 

Thasleema Kundankadavan, Sudha Goel, and Seetha Narayanan

After their disposal, single-use plastic products end up in environments and start withering, eventually breaking down into Nanoplastics (NPs). This has become an emerging environmental concern. Unsupervised disposal has caused their entry into groundwater and eventually reaches the human body through the food chain, causing health risks. There is a significant research gap in studying realistic NPs that are non-spherical NP particles. A lab produced NPs suspensions prepared for the experiments. The NPs in groundwater act as a vector for other contaminants, such as atrazine, which is widely used as herbicide. The environmental persistence of atrazine can cause soil and water contamination due to its hydrophobic nature and its tendency to adsorb onto particulate matter, including nanoparticles, making it ideal for getting transported by NPs in the groundwater. Hence, it is essential to study its adsorption dynamics and ecological impacts in the presence of NPs derived from single-use plastic products such as polystyrene nanoplastics (PSNP). This study aims to understand the adsorption of atrazine by realistic PSNPs and the environmental risks posed by pesticide and nanoplastic co-contamination. Adsorption studies of PSNPs and atrazine were done varying different parameters like contact time, the concentration of atrazine, and NP, salinity and pH. Adsorption of atrazine was found highest for the highest concentration of NPs. Salinity increased the adsorption of atrazine onto PSMPs. The study helped to conclude that the adsorption of atrazine onto realistic NPs is possible.

How to cite: Kundankadavan, T., Goel, S., and Narayanan, S.: Adsorption Dynamics of Atrazine on realistic Polystyrene Nanoplastics: Insights into Co-Contamination Risks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18972, 2025.

Lateritic landscapes are structurally complex systems formed through intense chemical weathering under tropical paleoclimates. These profiles are found in stable, low-relief landscapes across tropical, subtropical, and Mediterranean climates, particularly between 35°N to 35°S. Their vertical structure reflects long-term shifts in climatic, hydrological, and tectonic conditions, offering a valuable "memory" of past environmental changes. Despite their environmental and economic significance, lateritic landscapes remain underrepresented in CZ research, a bias compounded by the concentration of Critical Zone Observatories in the Northern Hemisphere, where shallow, truncated profiles prevail due to glacial erosion. This underrepresentation limits our understanding of long-term CZ processes and how they have shaped subsurface architecture.

This study investigates the subsurface architecture of a lateritic hillslope at the Avon River Critical Zone Observatory (AR-CZO) in Western Australia. Prolonged subaerial weathering since the Cretaceous, followed by mid-Miocene aridification, has created a stratigraphically complex regolith hillslope shaped by weathering, erosion, and colluvial deposition. To resolve the structural complexity of this hillslope, we applied a multi-method geophysical approach, combining electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) passive seismic methods, and borehole observations. ERT captured fine-scale stratigraphy, delineating the pallid zone, saprolite, and duricrust, while HVSR resolved broader interfaces, such as the duricrust-bedrock boundary and the base of the colluvial deposit.

The results reveal how landscape position influences CZ structure. The hilltop is capped by a duricrust that transitions downslope into an erosional surface, where the pallid zone of the lateritic weathering profile is exposed at the surface. At the foot slope, approximately 11 m of colluvial sediment has accumulated from the erosion of the hillslope material. Bedrock depth estimates differed between methods, with ERT indicating depths of 23 m on the slope and 32 m at the foot slope, while HVSR revealed deeper depths of 31 m and 39 m, respectively. The discrepancy highlights the limitations of ERT in saline environments, where conductivity masks key interfaces, while HVSR’s broader resolution provides more reliable bedrock detection in such conditions. Together, these methods reveal a laterally variable weathering profile that responds to shifts in landscape position, erosion, and deposition.

The complementarity of ERT and HVSR underscores the value of a multi-method geophysical approach for resolving the structural complexity of lateritic CZs. Our conceptual model demonstrates how weathering, erosion, and colluvial processes shape the structure of a deeply weathered hillslope, while also providing a transferable framework for characterizing saline, regolith-dominated systems. Given their depth, age, and capacity to preserve past climatic and tectonic conditions, lateritic CZs offer a vital opportunity to enhance global understanding of long-term CZ evolution. This research addresses the Northern Hemisphere bias in CZ science, highlights the underexplored role of stable, deeply weathered landscapes, and underscores the need for future comparative studies to understand the drivers of heterogeneity in subsurface architecture across CZs worldwide.

How to cite: Weller, J., Jakica, S., Thompson, S., and Leopold, M.: Combining electrical resistivity tomography and passive seismic to characterise the subsurface architecture of a deeply weathered lateritic hill within the Avon River Critical Zone Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1401, 2025.

The ground substrate is a new concept in the field of natural resources proposed by Chinese scientists in 2020 (Ministry of Natural Resources, 2020). It is the basic material that supports and nurtures various natural resources such as soil, forests, grasslands, wetlands, and water. The layer of ground substrate is the most active geological space for the exchange of substances and energy such as water, heat, salt, gas, carbon, etc. It is also serving as a bridge link between the land cover layer and the underground resource layer. The proposal on concept of ground substrate has clarified new directions and goals for geological survey to support ecological civilization construction and natural resource management, has great significance.

In different climate zones such as humid, semi humid, semi-arid, and arid in China, there are significant differences in the material composition, genetic types, and characteristic physicochemical properties of ground substrates, which call ground substrate heterogeneity by us. In recent years, based on multiple ground substrate surveys and research projects, some important conclusions has been gained. The first is we revealed the constraint mechanisms of the physical structure, mineral element composition, and chemical properties of ground substrates on the types, NDVI, NPP of vegetation ecology in the key ecological functional areas in northern China and hilly mountainous areas in southern China. The second is the determination of the bottom boundary of the ground substrate layer requires comprehensive consideration of five factors: they are depth of the underground variable temperate zone, the roots depth of crop and vegetation, the depth of the surface karst development zone, the thickness of the weathering crust, and the burial depth of the groundwater level. It is generally believed that the depth of the ground substrate layer is less than 20 meters. The third is the key constraint layer of ground substrate (rock and soil layers that have important control and influence on vegetation and crop growth, water and salt storage and transport, etc.) is a special layer that should be given special attention in ground substrate filed survey.

More detailed about the scientific connotation and theoretical framework of ground substrate, please see the published paper(Hao Aibing, Yin Zhiqiang*, Li Hongyu, Lu Qinyuan, Peng Ling, Shao Hai, Jiang Qida, Zhao Xiaofeng, Liu Jiufeng, Pang Jumei, Yang Ke, Chen Peng, Kong Fanpeng, Hou Hongxin, Lu Min. 2024. The scientific connotation and theoretical framework of ground substrate. Acta Geologica Sinica. 98(11):3225-3237)

How to cite: yin, Z., peng, L., and hao, A.: The concept of ground substrate and its physical structure & mineral element composition constrain mechanisms on vegetation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1441, 2025.

EGU25-1952 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.8

Clogging model of hyporheic exchange based on coupled lattice Boltzmann discrete element simulations 

Xudong Zhang, Atsushi Takai, Tomohiro Kato, and Takeshi Katsumi

The hyporheic exchange between the surface water and the underground water is considered a significant process in the natural water cycle system. Some sediment particles in the riverbed can be carried to the exchange channel under the stream effect. Over time, these particles accumulate on the channel can decrease the exchange efficiency of water resources, and induce clogs. The clogging problem of the exchange channel may further induce various geological and environmental disasters such as the shrinkage of lakes and desertification.

To detail the clogging mechanism in the exchange channel, we simulated the exchange clogging process on the exchange channel based on a coupled lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and discrete element method (DEM). The results indicated particles could form an arch structure clogging the channel orifice. The formation of the clogging arch prevented the discharge of soil particles and greatly decreased the fluid velocity. Notably, the fluid velocity distribution around the orifice is in a certain shape according to the velocity of the LBM cells—the size of the shape regularly changes with the distance to the channel orifice. The variation of the average fluid velocity in the orifice first increases to a peak (about 0.497 cm/s) in the initial time and then decreases to an approximate value after clogging (about 0.037 cm/s). The maximum velocity is almost thirteen times the minimum, indicating that the clogging effect can reduce the water velocity of hyporheic exchange by more than one order of magnitude. In addition, it was found that the soil skeleton was necessary for forming clogs in polydisperse particle systems by analyzing the clogging arch-forming process. The sediment particles in different scales have different effects on the clogging arch. The large particles in the sediments are closely related to the formation of the soil skeleton. The fine particles were involved in the filling and enhancing of the soil skeleton.

Based on our simulation analysis, an explanation for the clogging formation under microscopic conditions was proposed, leading to a detailed description of the exchange clogging in the hyporheic exchange channel. In addition, some mechanism statements to better understand the exchange phenomenon in the water cycling ecosystem are also provided.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Takai, A., Kato, T., and Katsumi, T.: Clogging model of hyporheic exchange based on coupled lattice Boltzmann discrete element simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1952, 2025.

EGU25-2490 | Orals | HS8.2.8

Spring and stream intermittency in an instrumented steep Himalayan Mountain catchment 

John Armitage, Kapiolani Teagai, Niels Hovius, Luc Illien, and Christoff Andermann

The pathway for rainfall into stream flow in mountain catchments can be fast via surface run-off or short-lived storage in the weathered zone, or slow via the deep fractured bedrock groundwater system. In mountainous topography, springs can be found at almost all elevations, suggesting that groundwater storage occurs at all elevations. There is however uncertainty as if this storage is short lived, confined to the weathered zone, or longer lived and is part of the groundwater system. Intermittent streams and springs might reflect the storage of water within the subsurface. To measure stream intermittency and the migration of the associated headwater springs we installed intermittency loggers based on repurposed HOBO luminosity loggers along five gulleys within the Kahule Khola catchment in central Nepal.

The intermittency loggers measure an electric current when the circuit is closed by surface moisture and flowing water. The loggers were installed in spring 2023 before the pre-monsoon and were removed in November 2024. At low elevation, three series of loggers were installed in gullies below the village of Listi. These below Listi loggers had perennial springs at their lowest elevation. Furthermore, one series of loggers ended at an ERT repeat survey that showed evidence of year-round shallow subsurface saturation. At high elevation, two series of loggers were installed near the village of Bagham, below an open meadow where ephemeral springs were mapped (we call these the meadow loggers). A coincident ERT repeat survey showed evidence of lateral flow of groundwater within this region.

The loggers recorded three distinct phases: (1) The pre-monsoon, where individual storm events can be registered along each gulley as separate wetting events. (2) Monsoon, where there is a continuous and high conductivity measurement for all loggers, representing continuous flow of surface water. (3) The dry season, which starts with a recession in the electric current observed, followed by sparce wet events. The below Listi systems dried completely within the dry season, while the meadow gulleys recorded low but non-zero electric currents even throughout the dry season. The loggers did not record any evidence of spring migration down the gulleys, rather a uniform drying after rainfall events at all locations, with prolonged wetness post monsoon only seen for loggers that were situated just above known perennial springs. The observations would therefore suggest that intermittent run-off comes from the temporary storage in the weathered zone that dries out at the same rate across the catchment, while persistent flow is from points where the topography intersects with the deeper groundwater reservoir. Run-off within the steep catchment therefore operates through two coexisting systems, (1) an intermittent system that is fed from temporary storage of water in the weathered zone, where there is no distinct headwater spring, and (2) perennial streams fed by groundwater springs.

How to cite: Armitage, J., Teagai, K., Hovius, N., Illien, L., and Andermann, C.: Spring and stream intermittency in an instrumented steep Himalayan Mountain catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2490, 2025.

EGU25-2917 | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Accelerating Critical Zone Science with an International Network of Networks 

Jeffrey Munroe, Bhavna Arora, Kevin Bishop, Theresa Blume, Heye Bogena, Elizabeth Boyer, Isabelle Braud, Jérôme Gaillardet, Ralf Kiese, and Steffen Zacharias

The international Critical Zone Network of Networks (CZ-NoN) project, launched in January 2025 and funded by the US National Science Foundation, promotes the study of the Earth’s Critical Zone (CZ), the vital near-surface environment where essential life-supporting processes converge.  Building on previous investments in CZ research, CZ-NoN fosters collaboration and communication between existing and emerging environmental observatories and monitoring networks worldwide.  By establishing a unified framework for collaboration and discussion, CZ-NoN addresses long-standing challenges such as fragmented methodologies, redundancies, poor communication, and barriers to data discoverability and accessibility.  Key project components include planning meetings, workshops, and an online webinar series aimed at building community, showcasing new efforts, and increasing awareness of ongoing CZ research.  In parallel, a global polling effort will compile a crowdsourced list of grand research questions to guide future CZ studies.  By bringing together researchers from different countries and disciplines, and prioritizing cooperation over competition, CZ-NoN will accelerate scientific research and position the international research community for future funding opportunities to support complex, integrated study of the global CZ across diverse socio-environmental conditions.

How to cite: Munroe, J., Arora, B., Bishop, K., Blume, T., Bogena, H., Boyer, E., Braud, I., Gaillardet, J., Kiese, R., and Zacharias, S.: Accelerating Critical Zone Science with an International Network of Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2917, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2917, 2025.

Tropical vegetation plays a vital role in global ecosystem services, with one critical aspect lying in its hydrological functions of water cycle regulation. Climate change and accelerated human interventions threaten the stability of tropical vegetation, associated with profoundly hydrological changes particularly in recent decades. Despite various studies on land-atmosphere feedback using earth system models, the regulation of terrestrial hydrological components remains unclear over tropical regions, due primarily to inherent limitations of models in accurately simulating terrestrial water storage (TWS) and runoff. Here, we combine multisource observations to reveal a disparity pattern in storage-runoff interactions over tropical regions for the past two decades. Using satellite-based Landsat optical archives, Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation, GRACE gravimetry, and gauge-based runoff database, we show that large-scale forest degradation and cropland expansion have weakened moisture recycling over the eastern tropical South America and eastern tropical Africa (Region I), indicated by a significant decrease in net precipitation input (precipitation minus evapotranspiration). This further causes declines in both TWS and streamflow, shown as a pattern of “less storage and less runoff” due to vegetation degradation. In contrast, over the western tropical South America, western tropical Africa, and tropical Asia (Region II), we did not find marked changes in land cover but a significant increasing trend in vegetation greenness and leaf area index. This is associated with a significant increase in net precipitation input and an enhanced moisture recycling. The increased water input over Region II causes an increase in TWS but a decline in streamflow, shown as a pattern of “more storage but less runoff” due to the decrease in rainfall-runoff generation induced by vegetation growth. The disparity patterns between Region I and Region II highlight different responses of tropical terrestrial water system to a changing environment. Unlike most past studies relying on land surface or earth system models, this study leverages strengths in advanced observation techniques to explore different mechanisms underlying changes in the tropical terrestrial water system. Findings from this study provide valuable supplements to the current model-based analysis, and inform adaptive strategies for changes over tropical regions.

How to cite: Li, X. and Peng, J.: Multisource observations reveal different roles of tropical vegetation in terrestrial water regulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7653, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7653, 2025.

EGU25-9089 | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Monitoring the triple oxygen isotope composition of water and biogenic silica at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface: benefits for investigating West African present and past water cycles 

Anne Alexandre, Clément Outrequin, Christine Vallet-Coulomb, Christophe peugeot, Manuela Grippa, Julie Aleman, Claudia Voigt, Amaelle landais, Eric mougin, Ousmane Ndiaye, Corinne Sonzogni, David Au Yang, Jean-Charles Mazur, Martine Couapel, Jérome Ogée, Theodore Ouani, Simon Afouda, Nogmana Soumaguel, Torbern Tagesson, and Rasmus Fensholt

Quantitative data are needed to constrain vegetation-hydroclimate in water cycle modelling. Here, we use the triple oxygen isotope composition (δ'18O and 17O-excess) of water compartments to track water transfers and mixing within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At three AMMA-CATCH sites in Benin and Senegal we monitored the δ'18O and 17O-excess of precipitation, groundwater, soil water and plant water, as well as the 17O-excess of phytoliths, an indicator of atmospheric relative humidity. We found that : 1) the 17O-excess in precipitation is very stable over several years; 2) groundwater has δ'18O and 17O-excess values consistent with a multi-year recharge by modern precipitation; 3) the 17O-excess in soil water shows a limited contribution of evaporated water, despite high evaporation conditions, which has important implications for our knowledge of water transfers within soils; 4) extrapolating linear relationships between δ'18O and excess 17O-excess of leaf and stem water allows us to determine the origin of the water absorbed by the roots. At the savanna and dry forest sites, during the rainy season, grasses absorb soil water supplied by precipitation. In contrast, during the dry season, trees reach the perennial groundwater recharge. 5) the 17O-excess of grass and tree leaf water follow the dynamics of relative humidity; 6) the 17O-excess of grass phytoliths records daily relative humidity during the growing season. These results provide a solid basis for using the triple oxygen isotope composition of water and phytoliths to trace present and past water cycles at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface.

This study was conducted in the framework of the HUMI-17 and PAST-17 projects supported by the ANR (ANR-17-CE01-0002-01 and ANR-22-CE01-0027-01), JA and CV have benefited from a Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant from the European Union (n°101063961 for JA and 101063961 for CV). TT acknowledge funds from FORMAS (Dnr 2021-00644), and the European Union under the Development Smart Innovation through Research in Agriculture (DeSIRA) Initiative (FOOD/2019/410-169).

How to cite: Alexandre, A., Outrequin, C., Vallet-Coulomb, C., peugeot, C., Grippa, M., Aleman, J., Voigt, C., landais, A., mougin, E., Ndiaye, O., Sonzogni, C., Au Yang, D., Mazur, J.-C., Couapel, M., Ogée, J., Ouani, T., Afouda, S., Soumaguel, N., Tagesson, T., and Fensholt, R.: Monitoring the triple oxygen isotope composition of water and biogenic silica at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface: benefits for investigating West African present and past water cycles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9089, 2025.

The Bassée Observatory, located in the heart of the Seine catchment and part of the Zone Atelier Seine network, is an essential research platform for understanding the hydrological processes associated with the strategic challenges of sustainable water resource management. It focuses on the behaviour of the alluvial plain as a complex and anthropised hydrosystem, considering its long-term geohistorical evolution. Through an extensive network of surface water and groundwater monitoring stations, the observatory highlights the central role of groundwater and its interactions with surface water in the current dynamics of this region. We introduce the new groundwater model of the Bassée, developed as a tool combining the CaWaQS hydrogeological platform with the groundwater utilities of the PEST parameter estimation approach. This integration improves the representation of the heterogeneity of the alluvial plain and provides a solid basis for quantitative decision making. The model is designed to assist stakeholders in addressing the challenges of operating and conserving the alluvial plain in the context of a changing environment.

How to cite: Jost, A., Saias, C., and Renaud, A.: Groundwater modelling in the Bassée alluvial plain: A tool for understanding the dynamics of a complex socio-hydrosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9355, 2025.

EGU25-10061 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Quantifying hydrogeological drivers influencing daily fluctuations in shallow groundwater levels within an altiplanic pristine catchment in Chile. 

Amanda Peña-Echeverría, Cristina Contreras, Jorge Renaud, Sarah Leray, and Francisco Suárez

Daily fluctuations in shallow groundwater levels provide valuable insights into hydro-ecological dynamics and aquifer hydraulic properties. These fluctuations usually depend on hydrological/hydrogeological processes, such as precipitation, evaporation, snow/ice melting/thawing, as well as soil characteristics that influence aquifer response times. The Salar del Huasco basin (20.2°S, 68.8°W; 4,164 m a.s.l.; 1,470 km2) is an endorheic system located in the arid Chilean Altiplano, hosting wetlands and a saline lagoon that sustain part of the region essential biodiversity such as chilean, andean, parina and chica’s flamingos, and it serves as a refuge for migratory birds (e.g., peregrine falcon, golden plover and baird's sandpiper). The area experiences extreme thermal oscillations (4–14°C daily averages; winter lows of -20°C), high potential evaporation (1,200 mm/year), and variable summer precipitation (11–400 mm/year). To explore shallow groundwater dynamics, we monitored for ~1 year two sites near the basin’s salt flat: the north and the south sites. Meteorological, soil, and groundwater levels data were collected at 30-min intervals. At the northern site, daily groundwater level fluctuations ranged from 6 to 45 mm, with a sharp and abrupt 300 mm rise in austral spring. In contrast, the southern site showed daily groundwater level fluctuations between 7 and 58 mm, with multiple rises during winter, ranging from 100 to 300 mm. Distinct patterns emerged at these sites: in the northern site, the maximum diurnal fluctuations correlated with solar radiation, while the southern site showed a more stable behavior, with no clear daily peaks. We applied a water balance to determine how the amplitude of possible input and output fluxes in the system altered the daily level fluctuations, and whether, despite the proximity of both sites (~9 km), soil texture, vegetation cover, and local meteorological-hydrogeological conditions explain the differences in groundwater level behavior.

How to cite: Peña-Echeverría, A., Contreras, C., Renaud, J., Leray, S., and Suárez, F.: Quantifying hydrogeological drivers influencing daily fluctuations in shallow groundwater levels within an altiplanic pristine catchment in Chile., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10061, 2025.

In times of climatic unpredictability driven by a quickly changing climate, it is critical to investigate hydrological processes and water availability in different climatic and geomorphological contexts. Mountains have long been acknowledged as fundamental sources of abundant high-quality water for the densely populated downstream areas. The large volumes of water stored in mountain lakes, reservoirs, and snow caps are extremely important to buffer precipitation variability and sustain ecological and anthropic water uses during droughts. So far, the flow and storage of water in the deeply fractured rock formations constituting the core of mountain massifs have mostly been neglected, even for the long-term water balance. However, recent experimental evidence has shown that poorly porous and conductive fractured bedrock can host aquifers whose contribution to streamflow can be substantial, particularly during droughts.

This study systematically assesses, under a wide range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, how deep subsurface storage and flows affect critical hydrological and hydrogeological variables such as the age of streamflow (as opposed to the age of baseflow), surface seepage, and permanent drainage density. These critical hydrological processes are investigated via a large set of steady-state numerical experiments by modulating surface topography, groundwater recharge, and hydrogeological properties of the subsurface (e.g., formation depth, hydraulic conductivity, and its heterogeneity).

The results quantitatively show, for example, how different morphological and hydrogeological conditions may respond to climate change and can be useful in identifying vulnerable areas where mitigation strategies should be prioritized to cope with water shortages. The study can also help understand where ecological alterations driven by the lack of water can have a more profound impact on riverine habitats and where to expect the shift of species in the future.  

How to cite: Bellin, A. and Betterle, A.: Assessing the Impact of Deep Subsurface Storage and Flows on Hydrological Processes and Water Availability in Mountainous Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11743, 2025.

EGU25-12719 | Orals | HS8.2.8

 Infiltration depth, rooting depth, and regolith flushing—A global perspective 

Gonzalo Miguez-Macho and Ying Fan

How deep does the rain regularly infiltrate into the ground? Do plant roots follow? How much infiltration is pumped back to the atmosphere (short-circuiting)  and how much passes below plant roots reaching the water table, flushing the regolith, recharging aquifers and rivers, and eventually reaching the ocean (long-circuiting) thus regulating global biogeochemical cycles and long-term climate? What is the depth that supplies evapotranspiration, and what is the regolith flush rate? What are the implications to global material and energy cycles? The answers depend on local climate–terrain–vegetation combinations. We use observations and high resolution numerical modeling at the global scale to shed light on multiscale causes–feedbacks among climate, drainage, substrate, and plant biomass that interactively create a global structure in the depths and rates of hydrologic plumbing of the Earth's critical zone, informing global models on critical depths and processes to include in Earth-system predictions.

How to cite: Miguez-Macho, G. and Fan, Y.:  Infiltration depth, rooting depth, and regolith flushing—A global perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12719, 2025.

EGU25-12772 | Orals | HS8.2.8

Groundwater controls on headwater stream dynamics 

Clément Roques, Ronan Abhervé, Etienne Marti, Ronny Figueroa, Nicolas Cornette, Alexandre Gauvain, Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy, Sarah Leray, Camille Bouchez, Alexandre Boisson, Luc Aquilina, and Philip Brunner

Headwater catchments, defined as the uppermost segments of drainage networks with intermittent and/or perennial third-order streams, are vital sources of freshwater and nutrients for downstream river basins. Despite their critical role in sustaining natural ecosystems and supporting human services, these systems remain poorly understood and are often referred to as 'aqua incognita1.' A key challenge lies in unraveling the hidden groundwater processes that contribute to storage-discharge dynamics. Recent advances in both in-situ and remote monitoring, combined with innovative modeling techniques, now offer opportunities to capture the complex interactions between surface and subsurface processes across diverse climatic, topographic, and geological contexts.

In this presentation, we will present recent findings from field investigations conducted in headwater observatories, complemented by numerical modeling experiments designed to evaluate the controls of key geomorphic factors on groundwater-surface water interactions. The presentation will explore how landforms, lithologies, subsurface stress, and faults shape hydrological behaviors, including stream baseflow recession, groundwater seepage distribution, flow intermittency, and water residence times. Additionally, we will highlight advances in numerical modeling techniques, particularly through the HydroModPy community modelling platform2, which enhance the representation and calibration of groundwater processes in catchment-scale hydrological models. Through the application of these models on pilot sites, we will illustrate how subsurface heterogeneity influences the predictions of water availability under future climate change scenarios, emphasizing the importance of integrating hydrogeological insights for supporting resilient water resource management.

1 Bishop, K., Buffam, I., Erlandsson, M., Fölster, J., Laudon, H., Seibert, J., Temnerud, J., 2008. Aqua Incognita: the unknown headwaters. Hydrological Processes 22, 1239–1242. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7049

2 Gauvain, A., Abhervé, R., Coche, A., Le Mesnil, M., Roques, C., Bouchez, C., Marçais, J., Leray, S., Marti, E., Figueroa, R., Bresciani, E., Vautier, C., Boivin, B., Sallou, J., Bourcier, J., Combemale, B., Brunner, P., Longuevergne, L., Aquilina, L., and de Dreuzy, J.-R.: HydroModPy: A Python toolbox for deploying catchment-scale shallow groundwater models , EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3962, 2025.

How to cite: Roques, C., Abhervé, R., Marti, E., Figueroa, R., Cornette, N., Gauvain, A., de Dreuzy, J.-R., Leray, S., Bouchez, C., Boisson, A., Aquilina, L., and Brunner, P.: Groundwater controls on headwater stream dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12772, 2025.

EGU25-12792 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.8

Deep flow behavior and the critical zone in a deep well: A hydrogeological study in Mexico City 

Zaida Martínez Casas, Eric Morales Casique, Selene Olea Olea, and Jose Luis Lezama Campos

In Mexico City, where population growth has significantly increased water demand, a well was drilled to a vertical depth of 1992 meters. 
To understand the groundwater dynamic in the critical zone- an area extending from the surface to the base of the groundwater system, where complex interactions occur between the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere- various tools were employed, including geophysical log analysis, pumping tests, and groundwater sampling for hydrochemical and isotopic (stable and radioactive) analyses.

The results revealed consistent ion concentrations during hydrogeochemical monitoring, classifying the water as sodium-chloride type with minor nitrate contamination attributed to the use of drilling mud.

Isotopic analysis indicated that the water likely originated from precipitation infiltrating at approximately 3000 meters above sea level, possibly from nearby mountain ranges. Radiocarbon dating estimated a residence time of 2840 years, although additional testing is necessary for confirmation.

Hydraulic tests determined a transmissivity of 768 m²/day and a specific storage of 3.11 × 10⁻⁶ m⁻¹, corresponding to an average hydraulic conductivity of 0.885 m/day. This is a complex hydrogeological system characterized by deep, highly fractured saturated zones. Groundwater in this well originates from the deep infiltration of rainfall in the surrounding sierras, circulating through fractures in volcanic rocks. Initially, the water quality showed temporary mixing with surface water due to the interaction between formation water and drilling mud; however, it later exhibited a distinct chemical composition.

The residence time of the water indicates a dynamic system with varying water ages. The results suggest hydraulic connectivity between different hydrogeological units and an endorheic behavior of groundwater flow in the area. In summary, this study enhances the understanding of groundwater flows in Mexico City, emphasizing the critical zone's role in shaping subsurface processes and highlighting the importance of considering the complexity of these systems for sustainable management.

How to cite: Martínez Casas, Z., Morales Casique, E., Olea Olea, S., and Lezama Campos, J. L.: Deep flow behavior and the critical zone in a deep well: A hydrogeological study in Mexico City, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12792, 2025.

EGU25-13922 | Orals | HS8.2.8

A Scale-Adaptive Framework for Modeling Critical Zone Processes and River Water Quality in the East River Watershed 

Dipankar Dwivedi, Ilhan Özgen Xian, Bhavna Arora, Boris Faybishenko, Michelle Newcomer, Patricia Fox, Carl Steefel, Kenneth Williams, Peter Nico, Susan Hubbard, and Eoin Brodie

Critical Zone processes encompass interactions among rock, soil, water, air, and living organisms, essential for quantifying water and nutrient fluxes and predicting downstream river water quality. High-fidelity reactive transport models (RTMs) are important for understanding Critical Zone processes but are typically computationally expensive, which limits their applicability across large catchments. To address these challenges, we developed a scale-adaptive reactive transport simulation framework that balances process fidelity with computational efficiency. We developed the RiverFlotran Module, which employs fully dynamic 1D shallow-water equations for river hydrodynamics, and integrated it into PFLOTRAN, a subsurface reactive transport model. This integration enables us to simulate bidirectional exchanges at the land-water interface. Subsequently, we developed a machine learning-based exchange function, trained on the simulated data, and tailored for the East River. This function allows us to predict river water quality along the river continuum. This framework was applied to the East River Mountainous Watershed in Colorado, a study site of Berkeley Lab's Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area, to demonstrate its effectiveness in capturing intricate Critical Zone interactions and predicting downstream river water quality. Our study of the East River Floodplain's alluvial aquifer revealed that prevailing anoxic conditions generate pronounced redox gradients, resulting in the downstream export of dissolved iron and nitrogen near meander bends. These bends consistently serve as nitrogen hotspots, irrespective of water levels, driven by variations in river stage, bathymetry, and meander geometry, such as sinuosity. This modeling framework provides a foundation for quantifying river water quality at the catchment scale.

How to cite: Dwivedi, D., Özgen Xian, I., Arora, B., Faybishenko, B., Newcomer, M., Fox, P., Steefel, C., Williams, K., Nico, P., Hubbard, S., and Brodie, E.: A Scale-Adaptive Framework for Modeling Critical Zone Processes and River Water Quality in the East River Watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13922, 2025.

EGU25-14421 | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Groundwater dynamics in a steep Himalayan catchment: the role of a widespread weathering layer in water storage and transfer 

Kapiolani Teagai, John-Joseph Armitage, Niels Hovius, Léo Agélas, Nobuaki Fuji, Luc Illien, Basanta Raj Adhikari, and Christoff Andermann

The Himalayan region is crucial for providing water resources to millions of people in downstream regions across Asia. However, the processes governing groundwater storage and flow in steep mountain catchments remain poorly understood, particularly regarding the interplay between monsoonal rainfall, infiltration, and groundwater recharge in these highly dynamic landscapes. This study investigates the Kahule Khola watershed in central Nepal, combining field-based approaches encompassing Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), infiltration measurements, and hydrogeochemical analyses, to investigate the pathways and storage mechanisms of groundwater across pre-, during, and post-monsoon seasons. Our findings highlight the critical role of a laterally extensive weathering layer, 10–25 m thick, in regulating hydrological processes. The weathering layer exhibits high infiltration capacities (<24.1 cm/h) that exceed even intense monsoonal rainfall rates (<162.8 cm/h), allowing surface water to rapidly penetrate the subsurface and replenish groundwater stores. The 2D ERT profiles reveal seasonal variations in the saturation of this layer, with significant vertical and lateral flow dynamics linking it to deeper fractured bedrock aquifers. Hydrogeochemical analyses of spring water further demonstrate a bi-compartmentalized flow regimes, where fast and shallow pathways dominate during the monsoon, while slower and long-term storage within the fractured bedrock sustains perennial spring discharge and stream baseflow throughout the dry season. This study enhances our understanding of the hydrological functioning of steep mountain landscapes, emphasizing the dual role of the weathering layer as both a temporary water reservoir and a conduit for deeper aquifer recharge, demonstrating heightened efficiency during monsoon season. By proposing a conceptual model of water transfer and storage in Himalayan catchments, this research provides critical insights into groundwater processes that are fundamental for sustainable water resource management under increasing pressures from climate variability and tectonic activity.

How to cite: Teagai, K., Armitage, J.-J., Hovius, N., Agélas, L., Fuji, N., Illien, L., Adhikari, B. R., and Andermann, C.: Groundwater dynamics in a steep Himalayan catchment: the role of a widespread weathering layer in water storage and transfer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14421, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14421, 2025.

EGU25-14670 | Orals | HS8.2.8

Extreme Winter Precipitation Drives Recharge of Deep Mountain Groundwater 

W. Payton Gardner, Matthew Swarr, Donald Argus, Hilary Martens, Zachary Young, and Zachary Hoylman

Extreme winter precipitation events, associated with frequent and intense atmospheric rivers, deposit significant quantities of water in mountain regions over short periods of time. Precipitation is forecast to become more variable as climate change intensifies; however, it is unclear how that will affect mountain aquifer recharge. Here we use high-precision Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) surface displacements and elastic deformation models to surface loading to estimate total water storage changes.  Using independent estimates of water stored within shallow subsurface and surface reservoirs, we isolate changes in mountain groundwater storage in two important mountain regions of the western US at high spatial (~30km) and temporal (~ 1 week) resolution. We find that groundwater storage is the dominant component of long-term total water loss within the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, composing up to 95% of the total water lost over the past two decades. However, extremely wet winters, such as that of 2023, can recharge groundwater storage by more than twice the average annual amount, driving the state of groundwater storage from historical lows to above or near-normal conditions over relatively short periods. Further, we find gains in groundwater storage associated with these events are relatively durable, persisting over several proceeding years following the extreme recharge event. Mountain aquifers have been increasingly recognized as a dynamic and critical source of water storage and release to adjacent low-elevation communities; however, persistent declines in mountain aquifer storage have been observed across the western US over the past two decades. In a future with increasingly variable precipitation, the strong influence of extreme events may act to maintain mountain groundwater, sustaining ecosystem health and buffering adjacent areas against drought conditions in between events.

How to cite: Gardner, W. P., Swarr, M., Argus, D., Martens, H., Young, Z., and Hoylman, Z.: Extreme Winter Precipitation Drives Recharge of Deep Mountain Groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14670, 2025.

EGU25-15141 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.8

Down Under(ground) – Introducing the Australian Critical Zone Observatory Network 

Simone Gelsinari, Konrad Miotliński, Matthias Leopold, Jessie Weller, and Sally Thompson

The growing global network of Critical Zone Observatories provides exciting insights into how terrestrial and subsurface environments are interconnected, emphasising the value of understanding the Critical Zone as a vertically integrated system.  Yet this network is situated overwhelmingly in the frequently young and post-glacial or glacially-influenced landscapes of the Northern Hemisphere.  The Southern Hemisphere offers diverse landscapes with geologic parent materials spanning the Archaean to the Cenozoic, which have experienced little glaciation relative to the Northern Hemisphere.  The Australian Critical Zone Observatory Network was established in 2020 to provide insights into the structure and functioning of such landscapes on the ancient, chemically depleted, dry and diverse Australian continent. Five sites have been established with a common suite of instrumentation and operating principles, and are working collaboratively to develop Critical Zone datasets in landscapes ranging from rainforest to eucalyptus woodlands, dryland mallee, tropical savannah and rain-dependent agricultural lands.

This talk will introduce the OzCZO – the Australian Critical Zone Observatory Network, the five sites, their instrumentation and opportunities for scientific research within and by making comparisons among the sites.  It will then share some of the initial observations being collected at one of the observatories – the ancient lateritic landscape of the Avon Critical Zone Observatory.  We will illustrate how CZ structure, illuminated by bore logs and geophysics, organises soil physical and chemical properties across the landscape, and reveal how these properties then feed into land management decisions, hydrological functioning, and large-scale ecological health.  The Avon CZO is located within a biodiversity hotspot in the South-West of Australia, where the health of land and waters, and the ecosystems and agricultural production that depend on them, is threatened by both dryland salinity and a drying climate – with outcomes all mediated by the Critical Zone.

All data from OzCZO will be publicly available for use, and the sites are intended to act as an open platform where researchers can develop and test their ideas.  Given the scope for valuable cooperation and comparisons across these sites, we invite researchers at EGU to engage with OzCZO and keep progressing towards a global Critical Zone science.

How to cite: Gelsinari, S., Miotliński, K., Leopold, M., Weller, J., and Thompson, S.: Down Under(ground) – Introducing the Australian Critical Zone Observatory Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15141, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15141, 2025.

EGU25-17724 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Understanding surface - groundwater interactions in central European upland catchments: the Ahr valley, Germany 

Benoit Abadie, Laura Fracica, Christoff Andermann, Niels Hovius, Michael Dietze, and John Armitage

With a changing climate, major flood events are an increasing risk in many parts of the world, including temperate zones in Western Europe. Recent examples of destructive flooding in central European upland catchments, such as the 2021 Eifel floods in western Germany, highlight the importance of improving our understanding of the mechanisms behind stream response and sediment transport to precipitation events in upland catchments in temperate Western-Europe. The HIdden water and LANDscape ERosion (HILANDER) project that started in spring 2024 has two major goals: 1. To put in place an observatory in the Ahr catchment to characterize how water travels through the critical zone. 2. To incorporate surface/groundwater interactions in models of landscape evolution and river erosion.

The Ahr valley, ranging from 50m to 737m of elevation, is characterized by gently sloped hilltops and a steep, incised river valley. Preliminary recession analyses of the Ahr catchment, performed on data from four existing hydrographs, show a faster flowing aquifer in the upper parts of the catchment and a slow flowing aquifer in the lower regions. This implies that the upper parts of the catchment may be dominated by sub-surface flow through a more permeable shallow layer whereas the streamflow in lower reaches of the catchment is dominated by the deeper underlying aquifer. Two sub-catchments of the upper Ahr river, the Michelsbach, mainly forested and the Huhnenbach, largely agricultural with engineered drainage systems were chosen as study sites. The catchments are instrumented with pressure sensors, turbidimeters and seismometers, to continuously measure streamflow, suspended sediment concentrations, bedload transport and groundwater saturation. Furthermore, springs have been mapped and sampled for stable isotopes, dating and major elements.

Springs are found at both high and low elevations within both sub-catchments, and the locations of these springs do not vary from summer to winter. Observations from the summer spring mapping campaign of June 2024 found that the age of spring-water at high elevation is a mix of young water (ages of 2 to 3 years) and old water (age of 16 years). The presence of both young and old components in the spring water implies multiple pathways for groundwater within the catchment. In January 2025 we found that the ridge tops were saturated with substantial ponding of surface water. Down slope there was either diffuse release of this water or point release at the same locations of springs that were mapped and sampled in the summer. This, along with higher winter oxygen saturation in the springs, points to the potential for interflow during high rainfall events, where water flows laterally through the shallow soil and rock moisture layers (weathering zone) mixing with the groundwater supply. The future continuous monitoring in this critical zone observatory will give insight to the interplay between lateral water pathways in the weathering zone, and deep groundwater reservoirs allowing for a better understanding of how water flow through the catchments can impact erosion and landscape evolution.

How to cite: Abadie, B., Fracica, L., Andermann, C., Hovius, N., Dietze, M., and Armitage, J.: Understanding surface - groundwater interactions in central European upland catchments: the Ahr valley, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17724, 2025.

EGU25-18247 | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN): A global hub for in situ observations serving earth system science 

Matthias Zink, Tunde Olarinoye, Fay Boehmer, Kasjen Kramer, Stephan Dietrich, and Wolfgang Korres

Soil moisture is a critical component of the Earth’s hydrological cycle, influencing weather, climate, agriculture, and ecosystems. In situ soil moisture measurements are indispensable for validating satellite observations, calibrating hydrological and land surface models, and advancing our understanding of regional and global water cycles. Unlike remote sensing, in situ measurements provide direct observations of soil moisture variability across temporal and spatial scales, offering a benchmark for numerous environmental applications.

The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) serves as a vital repository of harmonized in situ soil moisture data collected from diverse networks worldwide. Since its inception, the ISMN has integrated measurements from over 80 networks with more than 3000 stations at various depths, standardizing and curating them to ensure accessibility and comparability. Beyond offering comprehensive in situ soil moisture data, ISMN disseminates additional environmental variables, including soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, air temperature, surface temperature and soil water potential if they are available from our data providers. ISMN’s quality control framework addresses inconsistencies and errors, enabling researchers and practitioners to confidently utilize its datasets for applications ranging from hydrological modeling to climate change studies. ISMN’s free data access (https://ismn.earth) has fostered global collaboration and supported hundreds of studies in Earth system science.

Ongoing efforts are concentrated on expanding the database by incorporating additional stations and networks from institutional or governmental sources. Further resources are directed towards fortifying the operational system and improve usability to better serve our users. ISMN further contributes to the data-to-value chain on international initiatives like WMO, FAO and GCOS. One example is the contribution to WMO’s yearly Global State of the Water Resources report.  To enhance data quality, ISMN is researching AI-based methods for detecting anomalies such as spikes, dips, and plateaus, showing promising initial results.

How to cite: Zink, M., Olarinoye, T., Boehmer, F., Kramer, K., Dietrich, S., and Korres, W.: The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN): A global hub for in situ observations serving earth system science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18247, 2025.

EGU25-18699 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.8

Elaboration of a geological and hydraulic mapping project of infiltrability potential on the Aix-Marseille Provence Metropole (SE, France) 

Lilas Ruttyn, François Fournier, Philippe Leonide, Borgomano Jean, Bruno Arfib, Sophie Viseur, Laurent Goulet, Olivier Vignoulle, and Narimane Zaabar

The Aix Marseille Provence metropolitan area experiences rapid urbanization that reinforces the need for infrastructure and implies considerable sealing of the substratum This region is a typical arid and Mediterranean environment where rain precipitation can be exceptionally catastrophic. This two factors creates runoff, overflow and flooding in the urban area. One solution to manage the flooding and overflow is to allow more water to penetrate into the soil, by removing the impermeable and anthropic materials where the geological substratum is naturally able to infiltrate the water.

Usually, standard parameters such as: topography, drainage density and hydrological balances, are used to estimate runoff and indirectly find the infiltrability values and ultimately tackle infiltration problematics. These approaches are informatic and mathematics-based that work in a small, delimited and homogeneous area. To integrate this problematics to large scale and heterogenous systems, reservoir geology concepts such as geomorphology, uncertainties of scale change processes or structural geology can be addressed. Therefore, this project aims to understand the geological processes that controls the infiltration potential in the geological substratum and its spatial distribution for the purpose of creating an infiltrability map of the Aix Marseille metropolis.

The goal of this study is to develop a method for predicting the infiltration capacity on a large scale and heterogenous area including urban zone. This involves acquiring local observational data points which classify rock outcrops in 4 “hydraulic types” (HT) defined as follows: HT-1 represents impermeable rocks or soils, where no infiltration is possible; HT-2 represents thin soils with variable porosity and permeability; HT-3 describes rocks with low to very high matrix porosity influenced by clay matrix presence and variable permeability; HT-4 describes rocks with fractures and/or karst networks with low to very high permeability depending on fracture/cavity density, with variable porosity. With the geolocated data points, a map is created on QGIS (a Geographic Information System free software) in order to up-scale the hydraulic types over a larger scale grid by spatial interpolation.

For an even acquisition area, geological heterogeneity and accessibility of outcrops determines the data number needed to upscale hydraulic types. This approach is well-known in reservoir geology and this large-scale project is the opportunity to apply the methodology to  hydrogeology field.

Additionally, to address the lack of visibility of outcrops, subsurface data (shallow well data from the BRGM, Bureau of Geological and Mining Research) will be combined with field observations. Furthermore, a calibration of this method will be required to quantify and to establish thresholds within the Hydraulic Types classification. This project will ultimately provide specific values for infiltration capacity and facilitate flood risk management without having to use complex and costly technologies.

 

Keywords : SIG mapping, infiltration, runoff, geological substratum, stratigraphy, structural geology, heterogeneity, precipitation, de-sealing, available water

 

How to cite: Ruttyn, L., Fournier, F., Leonide, P., Jean, B., Arfib, B., Viseur, S., Goulet, L., Vignoulle, O., and Zaabar, N.: Elaboration of a geological and hydraulic mapping project of infiltrability potential on the Aix-Marseille Provence Metropole (SE, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18699, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18699, 2025.

EGU25-20210 | Posters on site | HS8.2.8

Integrating Data into the Hydrogeophysical Model: A Case Study of the Orgeval Critical Zone Observatory 

Agnès Rivière, Ludovic Bodet, Maxime Gautier, Alexandrine Gesret, Roland Martin, Sylvain Pasquet, Nicolas Radic, Jose Cunha Teixeira, Marine Dangeard, and Didier Renard

Quantifying the water and heat fluxes at the interface between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) is a key issue for hydrogeologists to consider for safe yield and good water quality. However, such quantification with field measurements is not straightforward because the SW-GW changes depend on the boundary conditions and the spatial description of the hydrofacies, which aren't well known and are usually guessed by calibrating models using standard data like hydraulic heads and river discharge. We provide a methodology to build stronger constraints to the numerical simulation and the hydrodynamic and thermal parameter calibration, both in space and time, by using a multi-method approach. Our method, applied to the Orgeval Critical Zone Observatory (France), estimates both water flow and heat fluxes through the SW-GW interface using long-term hydrological data, time-lapse seismic data, and modeling tools. We show how a thorough interpretation of high-resolution geophysical images, combined with geotechnical data, provides a detailed distribution of hydrofacies, valuable prior information about the associated hydrodynamic property distribution. The temporal dynamic of the WT table can be captured with high-resolution time-lapse seismic acquisitions. Each seismic snapshot is then thoroughly inverted to image spatial WT variations. The long-term hydrogeological data (such as hydraulic head and temperature) and this prior geophysical information are then used to set the parameters for the hydrogeological modeling domain. The use of the WT geometry and temperature data improves the estimation of transient stream-aquifer exchanges. Future developments to achieve the fully coupling of the hydrogeophysical model will be presented.

How to cite: Rivière, A., Bodet, L., Gautier, M., Gesret, A., Martin, R., Pasquet, S., Radic, N., Cunha Teixeira, J., Dangeard, M., and Renard, D.: Integrating Data into the Hydrogeophysical Model: A Case Study of the Orgeval Critical Zone Observatory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20210, 2025.

EGU25-716 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Chemical signature and structural study of a Madingou hydrokarst system, southwest of the Republic of Congo. 

Prefina Samba, Nicy Bazebizonza, Hardy Nkodia, Florent Boudzoumou, Imen Arfaoui, and Pascale Lahogue and the Prefina Samba

 

The aim of this study is to understand the relationships between surface and underground flows of Kibounda karstic system, near Madingou town, in the southwest of the Republic of Congo. This karst system developed within the carbonated formations of the Neoproterozoic Schisto-Calcaire Group, and is characterized by a distinctive landscape featuring cone and pinnacle reliefs typical of tropical karst terrain. Surface flows appear rare and are influenced by seasonal rhythms. Structural studies and chemical analyses of the water were carried out in order to understand how the network operates according to seasonal variations.

Surface and groundwater samples were collected, and major ions were analysed to understand the geochemical processes controlling the water chemistry in Kibounda. High concentrations of Ca, Mg, and HCO₃ indicate the dissolution of limestone and dolomite rocks. The observed SiO₂ concentrations in these waters suggest the widespread presence of silicates in the soils and rocks of the carbonate reservoir. Significant concentrations of sulfates in the rivers would indicate contamination of the water by anthropogenic activities. Other major ions are present in marginal concentrations, with Sr detected in trace amounts.

Structural measurements realized at key sites in the area show two dominant fracture orientations, NE-SW and NW-SE, along which water flows preferentially. These fractures are the fundamental drivers in the genesis of multiple karstic sites in the region.

The study determined the hydraulic connections between different sites following on their hydrochemical characteristics. It provides the information needed to understand the hydrochemical functioning of the Kibounda karstic system, contributing to the sustainable management of water resources of this area.

Keywords: Kibounda, Hydrokarst System, hydrochemical characteristics, Structural control, Congo Republic.

How to cite: Samba, P., Bazebizonza, N., Nkodia, H., Boudzoumou, F., Arfaoui, I., and Lahogue, P. and the Prefina Samba: Chemical signature and structural study of a Madingou hydrokarst system, southwest of the Republic of Congo., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-716, 2025.

Preferential flow (PF) is the rapid, irregular movement of water through soil channels. In permafrost regions, it is triggered by rainfall, snowmelt, and other hydrometeological factors, and affected by environmental and soil factors. With climate change, permafrost is degrading, especially in boreal areas such as the Da Xing’anling Mountains and along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipelines (CRCOPs). This study focuses on silty clay from the right of way of CRCOPs. Using indoor color tracers and comparative testing, six PF types were simulated in the samples and compared to a control.

The results show that soil columns with microfracture PF and randomly distributed macroporous PF experienced extended cooling (by 65% and 87%) and warming (by 57% and 39%) periods. Their average minimum temperatures were 0.4 to 2.5°C lower than those of the control, and took 1.9 to 2.4 times longer to reach stable temperatures. Microfracture and funnel PF samples had 18% to 25% higher minimum water content compared to the control. The coloration rate was 15% to 56% higher, and the preferential flow index in PF soil columns was over 48% higher during the first freeze-thaw cycle. Overall, PF type and related factors are crucial for the thermal and moisture characteristics of silty clay. These findings provide valuable insights for pipeline operation and permafrost engineering, contributing to enhanced foundation stability in a changing climate.

Key words: preferential flow; freeze-thaw cycles; hydrothermal effects; color tracing; silty clay; northern Da Xing’anling Mountains

How to cite: Cheng, Y. and Jin, H.: Experimental study on hydrothermal effects of preferential flows in silty clay specimens from the Da Xing’anling Mountains using a color tracer under freeze-thaw cycles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2333, 2025.

EGU25-3568 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Investigating Permeability Anisotropy in a Rough Fracture: A Novel Shear-Flow Setup 

Sobhan Sheikhi, Jordi Ortín, and Tomás Aquino

The coupled flow, transport, and hydro-chemo-mechanical processes in fractured porous media have great relevance for numerous applications including underground water management, hydrocarbon recovery, CO2 sequestration, and geological waste disposal. We developed a novel experimental setup designed to investigate these coupled processes. The setup uses fully matched transparent rectangular fracture blocks. These blocks are created by molding a granite fracture surface with resin. The design of the experimental setup provides controlled shear and normal stresses with simultaneous measurement of the resulting stresses and displacement in both the normal and shear directions. The fluid is injected from the center and flows radially toward the outputs.  There are nine discrete outlets per side to provide high-resolution measurements of the redistribution of flow and permeability anisotropy at various flow and stress conditions. Moreover, we utilize high-resolution imaging and fluorescent tracers to visualize real-time flow.

The results of shear-flow experiments showed that shear displacement enhances the permeability in the direction perpendicular to the applied shear stress. This anisotropic behavior results from the development of preferred flow paths due to the dilation and changes in the geometry of fractures caused by shear. This result was supported by high-resolution fluorescent tracer imaging, which likewise showed the changes in flow paths during shear-flow tests.

This experimental setup enables us to study coupled hydraulic, mechanical, and chemical processes, with precise evaluation of permeability anisotropy under a wide range of conditions. In the next step, we will utilize this setup for two-phase flow studies, as it has often been a challenging complexity in fractured porous media. 

How to cite: Sheikhi, S., Ortín, J., and Aquino, T.: Investigating Permeability Anisotropy in a Rough Fracture: A Novel Shear-Flow Setup, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3568, 2025.

EGU25-3776 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Simulation of Flow and Transport Processes in Karst Systems: LuKARS 3.0 Unveiled 

Beatrice Richieri, Vianney Sivelle, Andreas Hartmann, David Labat, and Gabriele Chiogna

Karst water resources play a vital role in global water supply, providing drinking water to 10–25% of the world´s population. Karst systems exhibit complex hydrological behavior, with fast-flow pathways and highly variable storage capacities. Hydrological models are essential for effective water resource management. However, modelling of karst systems is still a difficult task due to the heterogeneity of these systems and the uncertainties in karst structure.

LuKARS, a semi-distributed hydrological model for karst systems, addresses some of these challenges by allowing the consideration of multiple hydrotopes (i.e. distinct landscape units characterized by similar land use and soil types and thus by homogeneous hydrological properties) within a catchment. Despite its low computational cost, LuKARS faces challenges in the context of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification due to its large number of parameters. Compared to the original LuKARS version developed by Bittner et al., (2018), the newly developed version of LuKARS 3.0 presented in this study allows much faster computational times with reduction in runtime of approximately 99.39% (from 1.14 seconds per test run down to 7 milliseconds), for the same model structure. In addition, LuKARS 3.0 allows an easy implementation of the model on clusters and a flexible model structure characterized by an arbitrary number of hydrotopes as well as by the possibility of activating/deactivating different model compartments, i.e., epikarst, matrix and conduit.  

In this study, we leverage the low computation time of LuKARS 3.0 to apply Morris’ sensitivity analysis method, demonstrating its comparability to dimensional reduction techniques like the active subspace method. The efficient runtime also facilitates the investigation of combined parameter and structural uncertainties. We calibrate different model structures for the Kershbaum spring in Austria, with parameter estimation and uncertainty quantified via the GLUE method. The best-performing model structure is then coupled with PHREEQC to create an initial solute transport model based on the complete mixing assumption accounting for the posterior distributions of the parameter of the selected model structure of LuKARS 3.0.

 

Reference

Bittner, D., Narany, T.S., Kohl, B., Disse, M., and Chiogna, G. (2018). Modeling the hydrological impact of land use change in a dolomite-dominated karst system. Journal of Hydrology 567:267–279.

How to cite: Richieri, B., Sivelle, V., Hartmann, A., Labat, D., and Chiogna, G.: Simulation of Flow and Transport Processes in Karst Systems: LuKARS 3.0 Unveiled, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3776, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3776, 2025.

EGU25-4282 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Characterisation of structural and water flow processes in the upper vadose karst zone using a multi-method approach in a cave 

Eva Kaminsky, Barbara Funk, Richard Michtner, Michael Nagl, Adrian Flores-Orozco, Kurt Decker, and Lukas Plan

The complexity of karst aquifers hampers the assessment of groundwater recharge processes in the upper vadose zone. Consequently processes governing water flow in the soil and epikarst into the vadose zone remain poorly understood. This study aims to explore spatial differences of water recharge, storage, and movement through the upper vadose zone on a field scale at the Hochschwab karst massif (Eastern Alps, Austria).

To achieve this, we combined multiple approaches such as geophysical, hydrological, pedological, and structural geological methods to distinguish spatial variability in infiltration processes. Data were collected at Hirschgruben cave (1896 m above sea level) for dry and wet conditions in winter and summer providing a seasonal comparison of infiltration dynamics in regard to snowmelt and precipitation. Monitoring included cave drip water (discharge, electrical conductivity and temperature) along with soil moisture measurements at depths of 5 to 30 cm, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) utilizing 96 electrodes between the cave ceiling and the surface to produce resolved 2D images. A structural geological survey of the fracture density classes and fault characteristics was carried out.

The results show different infiltration processes for snowmelt and precipitation; deep saturation with slow water percolation after snowmelt and rapid transit of water and quick responses at the cave weir after heavy precipitation events. Spatial differences in the ERT images indicate differences in water saturation in the epikarst, bedrock and the frost-weathered cave ceiling. The ERT images show the greatest increase in saturation in the bedrock during snowmelt, while rain events with rapid and heavy water flow show a continuous increase in water saturation in the epikarst and preferential flow paths. The structural geological characterisation of the catchment area enables the interpretation of differences in the spatial distribution of water saturation. These results underline that the integration of multiple sensors and methods is crucial to understand the variability of water fluxes in Alpine karst systems under different meteorological conditions.

How to cite: Kaminsky, E., Funk, B., Michtner, R., Nagl, M., Flores-Orozco, A., Decker, K., and Plan, L.: Characterisation of structural and water flow processes in the upper vadose karst zone using a multi-method approach in a cave, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4282, 2025.

EGU25-4763 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Characterization of high-permeability feeding conduits of thermal springs in fractured crystalline rocks (Karlovy Vary Spa, Czech Republic) 

David-Aaron Landa, Jakub Koutník, Jakub Mareš, Jiří Bruthans, Tomáš Vylita, and Chaz McCann

Granite forms a hardrock hydrogeological environment, characterized by a shallow permeable zone and relatively low transmissivity. Cold springs from granite mostly do not exceed a few L/s. Interestingly, hot springs with yield up to tens of L/s are not uncommon (e.g. Idaho batholith, USA). However, little is known about the character and origin of these high-permeability features in granite. The Karlovy Vary Spa (western Czech Republic) is fed by a large hot spring granite with a temperature of 73 °C and yields 30 L/s. Since the 1970s, > 70 boreholes have been drilled in the area to capture water for the spa. This provides a unique opportunity to study the characterization of the granite and its alteration by well logging techniques, to investigate conduits by borehole camera, to analyze cores, and to perform the tracer test from conduits captured by boreholes into a hot spring.

The Karlovy Vary Spa is located on the outskirts of the Eger Graben structure. One major spring, Vřídlo, (30 L/s) and tens of small springs occur in area (total yield < 3 L/s). The water has a TDS of 6.4 g/L and is classified as a Na-HCO3-SO4-Cl type, probably derived from water of high-TDS tertiary paleolakes. The water is enriched with CO2 (water-to-gas ratio 1:3). Granite is capped by a 10-16 m thick aragonite shield precipitated from hot water. Open conduits in granite filled by hot water were observed. In 1980, the geophysical log probe (1050 mm long and 36 mm in diameter) was incidentally lowered into an open conduit feeding the Vřídlo spring from the base of a 133 m deep borehole. The probe reached a depth of 370 m. It follows that hot spring conduits have a considerable diameter. Flow velocity in this conduit exceeds 0.3 m/s, as water carries granite grain fragments up to 2 mm in diameter to the surface.

Four tracer tests using Na-fluorescein were conducted under a constant injection rate of 0.9–1.1 L/s. The tracer was injected into boreholes in close surroundings of the Vřídlo hot spring (tens of meters, depth up to 160 m) and monitored in boreholes feeding the Vřídlo spring. Flow velocities varied between 100–400 m/day (first arrival) and 50–140 m/day (mean residence time). Mean flow cross-sections derived from tracer tests were 5–10 m2, recovery was 8–15 %. In one test, where the tracer was injected directly below the aragonite shield, the tracer did not arrive to the Vřídlo spring or boreholes as close as 20 m away, despite injecting 500 m³ of water to mobilize the tracer. This indicates a very high effective porosity of strongly weathered granite in shallow depth, which can accommodate hundreds of m3 of water without allowing any tracer to reach the monitored boreholes.

Hot water enriched with CO2 can create highly permeable conduits in granite transmitting flow of tens of L/s. Granite is weathered into disintegrating residuum in places. It is likely that the high flow velocity >0.3 m/s emptied some fracture zones into high permeability conduits.

Funded by the GAUK No. 164524.

How to cite: Landa, D.-A., Koutník, J., Mareš, J., Bruthans, J., Vylita, T., and McCann, C.: Characterization of high-permeability feeding conduits of thermal springs in fractured crystalline rocks (Karlovy Vary Spa, Czech Republic), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4763, 2025.

EGU25-5741 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Numerical and Experimental Analysis of Heat Transport at Fracture Intersections 

Lisa Maria Ringel, Arwa Rashed, Benoît Fond, Yves Méheust, and Maria Klepikova

Heat transport in fractured media concerns various hydrogeology and subsurface engineering applications, such as heat transfer in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), thermal energy storage in fractured rocks, or the effect of heat on rock properties near nuclear waste repositories. The main factors influencing heat transport in fractured media are the thermal and hydraulic properties of the rock matrix and the presence and magnitude of fluid flow, which depends on the connectivity, geometry, and hydraulic properties of the fracture network.

This study analyzes coupled flow and heat transport processes at fracture intersections based on numerical simulations and laboratory experiments. The numerical simulations are conducted with OpenFoam, solving the mass, momentum, and energy conservation equations in the fractures coupled to heat conduction in the impermeable rock matrix. The numerical simulations are complemented by high-resolution temperature measurements in quasi-two-dimensional fracture intersection geometries. This is accomplished by the phosphor thermometry measurement technique. Phosphor particles are seeded into the fluid and act as tracers for the fluid temperature thanks to their temperature-dependent luminescence. The simulations and experiments are conducted under different volumetric flow rates to vary the thermal Péclet number.

Coupled flow and thermal transport in the numerical simulations and laboratory experiments are analyzed from the thermal breakthrough curves, the thermal front in the fractures, and the overall heat transfer coefficient between the fractures and the rock. The results characterize the effect of the fracture aperture, the angle under which the fractures intersect, and the thermal conductivity of the matrix on the heat transport at fracture intersections.

How to cite: Ringel, L. M., Rashed, A., Fond, B., Méheust, Y., and Klepikova, M.: Numerical and Experimental Analysis of Heat Transport at Fracture Intersections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5741, 2025.

In the coming years, we face many challenges related to groundwater flow in bedrock, including climate change and the ambition to increase Europe’s mineral supply. In crystalline bedrock, groundwater flow mostly occurs in fractures. Therefore, it is important to understand how individual fractures can affect groundwater flow. Simulating groundwater flow in a discrete fracture network is challenging, and the availability of analytical models is limited. This presentation introduces an analytical model for modeling groundwater flow in interconnected three-dimensional fracture networks. The presented model is based on the analytic element method and can manage random fracture networks [1].

The analytical model consists of planar circular fractures. The flow within each fracture plane is assumed to be two-dimensional. Intersecting fractures form an intersection line where the flow between the fractures is redistributed. Along the intersection line, the hydraulic head and flow are continuous. The analytical model uses a combined direct and iterative solver, and the solution can be used to calculate, among other things, equipotentials, streamlines, and flow velocities.

A unique feature of this model is that it does not require a computational mesh. This means that both the hydraulic head and flow velocity are known everywhere in the fracture network. The model also has no theoretical limit on the number of fractures that can be included or how large or small they can be. Therefore, the model is excellent for managing a combination of flow on both large and small scales simultaneously.

This presentation covers the basic concepts, the model’s properties, and application examples. We demonstrate that it is possible to include fractures at both kilometer and meter scales within the same model, while maintaining analytical accuracy. Furthermore, we will present particle tracking for multiscale models and discuss the influence scales on flow paths.

[1] Otto D.L. Strack, Erik A.L. Toller, An analytic element model for flow in fractured impermeable rock, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 643, 2024, 131983, ISSN 0022-1694, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131983.

How to cite: Toller, E. and Strack, O.: An analytic element model for groundwater flow in multiscale discrete fracture networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7348, 2025.

EGU25-7611 | Orals | HS8.2.9

Seawater intrusion mechanism in coastal karst (TWS brackish spring in New Zealand) 

Michael Stewart, Magali Moreau, Uwe Morgenstern, and Joseph Thomas

The objective of this work is to understand the mechanism of seawater intrusion and nature of water components supplying the slightly brackish Te Waikoropupū Springs (TWS) in New Zealand (Stewart and Thomas, 2008; Williams, 2023). Seawater intrusion in karst has special features due to flow being in conduit networks below sea level, very different from seawater inflow to porous aquifers (Fleury et al., 2007). Three mechanisms of seawater intrusion in karst have been identified (venturi suction effect, head balance process, and freshwater dilution of a near-constant brackish water flow, Arfib & Charlier, 2016). This work proposes a fourth mechanism at TWS – near-constant freshwater flow with increasing brackish water contribution as spring discharge increases following rainfall in the catchment.

The salinity of TWS Main Spring ranges between 0.02 and 0.23 g/L varying accurately with discharge, with a mean of 0.18 g/L. It is believed that two distinct water stores, designated Fresh Component (FC) and Brackish Component (BC), combine to produce the springs’ outflow. At low flow (low salinity) the discharge is almost all FC, then flow and salinity increase as BC is added. Chemical data over 50 years shows that the FC contribution has been near-constant and the salinity of BC has not changed in that time. While the positive relationship between salinity and discharge rate might suggest seawater intrusion by venturi suction, the nature of the system suggests otherwise.

Fleury et al., 2007 classed the TWS coastal karst aquifer as Type 3 (i.e. ‘a system with well-developed karstification below sea level, partially or totally closed to the sea’). This is exemplified by relatively slight brackishness of the spring water and no clear offshore outlets, although it is clear that freshwater escapes to the sea. A conceptual model of the system will be presented.

References

Arfib, B., Charlier, J.-B. Journal of Hydrology 540, 148–161, 2016.

Fleury, P., Bakalowicz, M., de Marsily, G. A review. Journal of Hydrology 339, 79–92, 2007.

Stewart, M.K., Thomas, J.T. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12(1), 1-19, 2008.

Williams, P.W. Carbonates and Evaporites 38:44, 2023.

How to cite: Stewart, M., Moreau, M., Morgenstern, U., and Thomas, J.: Seawater intrusion mechanism in coastal karst (TWS brackish spring in New Zealand), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7611, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7611, 2025.

EGU25-8325 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

A new effective flow model for formations with spatially varying fracture statistics 

Shangyi Cao, Daniel Stalder, Daniel Meyer-Massetti, and Patrick Jenny
 
Fractures serve as highly conductive flow conduits in subsurface formations and thus have a significant impact on flow and transport. The length of fractures can vary over several orders of magnitude, with the largest fractures potentially being comparable in size to the domain of interest. This makes it impossible to define a representative elementary volume for the extraction of effective flow parameters. Furthermore, due to the high uncertainty in fracture locations and parameters, a Monte Carlo (MC) study is typically needed to accurately estimate expected flow rates.
 
Alternatively, a new kernel-based model \cite{jenny2020sub} has recently been proposed, which allows for the direct computation of mean flow rates from a conservation law in integro-differential form. This model uses a dual-continuum formulation which incorporates the non-local effect of fractures through fracture kernels. To fully determine these kernels, transfer coefficients describing the expected matrix/fracture flow exchange are required.
 
In this work, a new scaling analysis is presented, which provides transfer coefficients as functions of fracture lengths and fracture densities. Furthermore, the resulting coefficients are used in flow simulations with spatially varying fracture statistics and good agreement against high-fidelity MC simulations has been found.

How to cite: Cao, S., Stalder, D., Meyer-Massetti, D., and Jenny, P.: A new effective flow model for formations with spatially varying fracture statistics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8325, 2025.

EGU25-8835 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

What is the contribution of localized recharge to spring flows in a binary karst aquifer? A response using a multi-scale physico-chemical approach 

Lise Durand, Jean-Baptiste Charlier, Cédric Champollion, Alexine Idoux, Bernard Ladouche, Juliette Mexler, Didier Tourenne, and Aurélien Vallet

The objective of this work is to investigate infiltration processes, flows on both saturated and unsaturated zones, and quantify their contributions to spring discharge, in a binary karst aquifer (recharged by the karst massif, as well as sinking streams). The study site is the Verneau karst aquifer located in the Jura Mountains (France). The recharge area covers 15 km², with half consisting of marl outcrops, where water enters through five losses (localized infiltration), and the other half consisting of limestone massif covered by a soil layer (diffuse infiltration).First, to analyze the spatial variability of flows generated by diffuse and localized infiltration at various depth, we performed hydrochemical analyses in soil lysimeters, caves and at the spring, conducting to characterize the physico-chemical end-members of the various compartments: soil layer, unsaturated zone in the karst massif and in the conduit network, saturated zone. Second, we used continuous high-frequency (1hour) time series (3 years) of semi-conservative tracers (electrical conductivity and nitrate concentrations) to characterize discharge response throughout the seasonal cycle. A End-Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) was conducted on 40 flood events to determine the contribution of the infiltrations types to spring discharge. Our results show that the localized infiltration shows a relatively homogeneous spatial signal, characterized by low values of electrical conductivity and nitrate content. Diffuse infiltration is spatially variable due to anthropogenic activities and contrasted residence time within the massif. Results of the EMMA method reveal that during flood events, approximately 1/3 of spring discharge comes from localized infiltration, while the majority comes from diffuse infiltration and pre-event water stored in the massif. A seasonal variability is evidenced in link with lower stream losses and storage in the unsaturated zone. A hydrogeological conceptual model is finally proposed, allowing us to discuss the origin of spring waters, given new elements on drivers controlling infiltration modalities, and the role of transfer and storage in the unsaturated zone.

How to cite: Durand, L., Charlier, J.-B., Champollion, C., Idoux, A., Ladouche, B., Mexler, J., Tourenne, D., and Vallet, A.: What is the contribution of localized recharge to spring flows in a binary karst aquifer? A response using a multi-scale physico-chemical approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8835, 2025.

EGU25-9342 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Sid-FM: A Statistical Integro-Differential Fracture Model for Efficient Flow Simulations in Fractured Sub-Surface Formation 

Daniel Stalder, Shangyi Cao, Daniel Meyer, and Patrick Jenny

Typically, the available information for the characterization of sub-surface formations is very limited, inducing significant uncertainties. This challenge is particularly pronounced in fractured formations and complicates predictive numerical simulations of flow and transport. For instance, isolated fractures can act as long-range highly conductive flow pathways, thus significantly influencing flow and transport. Since fractures may extend over lengths comparable to the domain of interest, homogenization approaches often yield unsatisfactory results. A common alternative is fracture-resolving Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), but there the high computational cost limits the inclusion of numerous fractures, which compromises the representation of realistic formations.

Alternatively, the Sid-FM approach offers a different methodology by bypassing fracture-resolving descriptions. Instead, it directly determines the ensemble-averaged flow field by incorporating non-local effects of extended fractures through fracture kernels. The present study demonstrates that suitably chosen kernel functions can effectively capture the influence of diverse fracture distributions, shapes, and connected fracture clusters. Numerical experiments compare Sid-FM results to fracture-resolving Monte Carlo simulations and demonstrate that Sid-FM provides accurate flow estimates at very low computational cost.

How to cite: Stalder, D., Cao, S., Meyer, D., and Jenny, P.: Sid-FM: A Statistical Integro-Differential Fracture Model for Efficient Flow Simulations in Fractured Sub-Surface Formation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9342, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9342, 2025.

EGU25-9802 | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

openKARST: A novel computational modeling tool for flow and transport in complex karst conduit networks 

Jannes Kordilla, Marco Dentz, and Juan Hidalgo

We present a newly developed flow and transport simulator for karst systems, designed to model complex flow dynamics and tracer transport in large-scale networks. The simulator is based on the Saint-Venant equations and integrates advanced hydraulic modeling and particle tracking algorithms to study the interplay between the physical properties of karst conduits, their large-scale network structure, and the resulting flow and transport behavior. The simulator accommodates both steady-state and transient flow scenarios under free-surface and pressurized conditions. Turbulent flows are modeled using the Darcy-Weisbach equation, supported by classical friction models such as the Churchill and Colebrook-White equations. Validation against a broad range of analytical solutions and flow dynamics in one of the largest cave systems in the world, the Ox Bel Ha cave, confirms the robustness of the approach.

Using field data obtained from 3D lidar scans of cave systems, we extract geometries to build high-resolution network models and investigate how resolution impacts flooding signals. Specifically, we analyze how downscaling to lower resolutions, resulting in fewer conduits with averaged properties such as diameter, hydraulic radius, and roughness, alters critical features like bottlenecks and their influence on flow propagation. Bottlenecks, which play a significant role in controlling flow rates and local hydraulic gradients, can disappear or be muted when the geometric complexity of the network is reduced. This smoothing process effectively reduces the spatial variability in conduit dimensions and frictional resistance, leading to changes in the timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of flooding signals. The disappearance of bottlenecks at lower resolutions may result in a more homogenized flow regime, potentially masking the true hydrodynamic behavior of the original network. Understanding these impacts is critical for accurately modeling flow dynamics in karst systems and assessing the trade-offs between computational efficiency and the complexity of hydrological predictions.

How to cite: Kordilla, J., Dentz, M., and Hidalgo, J.: openKARST: A novel computational modeling tool for flow and transport in complex karst conduit networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9802, 2025.

The effects of global warming have already been recorded in many decorated caves located in karst systems, and some prehistoric paintings are already deteriorating. Modeling the microclimate of caves under various climate change scenarios will enable to adapt the conservation strategy for rock art heritage. In this study, we consider the first step in this modeling approach: the simulation of water and heat transfers from the soil surface to the cave through the soil/epikarst/karst system.

Water transfer is modeled using a double-permeability approach. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the influence of various parameters on the model's behavior. Calibration of the model was achieved by comparing the simulated water flux at the model's exit with the observed drip rates from stalagmites.

For heat transfer modeling, the thermal rock characteristics are calibrated using sensor data taken at various depths in the soil and in the karst over a few years, and in the cave thanks to long-term monitoring. To provide long-term climate forcing, a transfer function is established between meteorological data measured at a height of 2 meters by Météo France and the temperature measured at the ground surface.

Then, this heat and water transfer model is fed with projections from regional climate downscaling models. This modeling approach, which integrates both current data and climate projections, will be a significant step towards the effective management and conservation of decorated caves, which are not only exceptional geological sites but also hold important historical and archaeological significance.

How to cite: Artigue, C., Mugler, C., and Genty, D.: Water and heat transfer modeling in karst environments to study the impact of climate change on the future of decorated caves: Application to the Villars Cave (Dordogne), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9955, 2025.

EGU25-10526 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Dynamic equilibrium in hydrocarbon charging and leakage of an intensively overpressured reservoir 

Baibing Yang, Qingfeng Meng, Fang Hao, Zhaoyun Zong, and Zhifeng Guo

In active petroleum systems, hydrocarbon charging and leakage often occur simultaneously. Establishing the relative relationship between reservoir charging and leakage is crucial for hydrocarbon exploration and reserve assessment. This study investigates the dynamic equilibrium between gas charging and leaking in a sandstone reservoir using high-resolution seismic, wireline logging, and well testing data from the LD10 gas field in the Yinggehai Basin, South China Sea. Fluid migration pathways, including top seal breaches, are depicted by utilizing attribute extraction and volume rendering. The fluid pressure distribution is characterized through measured and predicted pressure data. The charging episodes are identified by carbon isotope compositions. Our results show that gas-bearing fluids were charged from source rocks into the channel sandstone reservoirs in the Upper Miocene Huangliu Formation through positive flower faults The fluids subsequently migrated to higher sandstone intervals via hydraulic fractures. Leakage occurred through normal faults developed at the top of the channels, penetrating the seal of the upper Huangliu Formation. Our findings provide insights into fluid migration mechanisms in deep overpressured environments in sedimentary sequences.

How to cite: Yang, B., Meng, Q., Hao, F., Zong, Z., and Guo, Z.: Dynamic equilibrium in hydrocarbon charging and leakage of an intensively overpressured reservoir, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10526, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10526, 2025.

EGU25-11154 | Orals | HS8.2.9

Detecting fracture networks and karst features alignments similarities in the aquifer system of Tsanfleuron, Swiss Alps. 

Ana Paula Burgoa Tanaka, Celia Trunz, Manon Trottet, Tanguy Racine, and Philippe Renard

The role that fractures play for karst development has been widely described, most particularly for the generation of preferential flow pathways. The alignments between fractures and karst features, such as conduits and dolines, occur in various regions where the rock is prone to diaclase or where the tectonic history imprints fracture patterns that facilitate rock dissolution. However, most studies specifically linking the orientation of fractures and karst features are largely descriptive. A quantitative analysis of the geometries and their interconnection is required before modeling any discrete karst network model (DKN).

In order to analyze the relationship between structural geology and karst development, we propose a novel quantitative approach, in between description and modeling. This approach is applied on the karst aquifer system of Tsanfleuron in the Helvetic domain of the western Alps. We check if the fracture and conduit orientation is similar, by statistically comparing their azimuths. The aim is to quantify and identify which fracture families have the highest influence in the development of karst features.

We interpret fracture alignments on a scale 1:2.500, based on a set of data acquired from an uncrewed aerial vehicle with 10 cm/px resolution, consisting of a digital elevation model and an orthomosaic image. Fracture interpretation was verified in the field. Karst surveys were previously acquired by the Groupe de Spéléologie Rhodanien, Société Spéléologique Genevoise, Spéléo-Club Jura, and Groupe Spéléo Lausanne. We calculate the azimuths from the fracture interpretation and karst surveys. We identify the dolines by the circular and ellipsoidal shape as depressions on the DEM, and their alignments are detected with the application of the Hough transform.

The superposition of structural and karstic features on maps and the plot of their direction in rose diagrams show that some fracture sets coincide with the orientation of most of the conduits in the study area. We apply the chi-square test to verify how similar are the distributions of the fractures and conduit azimuths. The null hypothesis (H0) is that the distributions are similar, and the alternative hypothesis (H1) is that the distributions are significantly different. If the chi-square test yields a value under the selected p-value = 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis.

Comparison of all azimuths ranging from 0° to 180° shows that hypothesis H0 cannot be rejected; therefore, the distributions of fractures and karst conduits are similar. Testing more specific direction ranges indicates that fractures and conduits are strongly aligned especially in the NE-SW, ENE-WSW, and E-W directions (with high p-values). The alignments of the dolines are based on fewer measurements, but show a preferential NE-SW orientation.

We conclude that the fracture and karst conduit azimuth distributions are similar. Therefore, fractures, helped by the gentle dip of the bedding, controlled the development of the karst in Tsanfleuron, mainly in the NE-SW, ENE-WSW, and E-W directions. This result will be used for the construction of a DKN model in future work.

How to cite: Burgoa Tanaka, A. P., Trunz, C., Trottet, M., Racine, T., and Renard, P.: Detecting fracture networks and karst features alignments similarities in the aquifer system of Tsanfleuron, Swiss Alps., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11154, 2025.

EGU25-12298 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Extremely slow flow in voluminous karst conduit developed in metamorphosed carbonates: Result of long-term evolution and lack of sediment transport 

Jakub Koutník, Jakub Mareš, Jiří Bruthans, and František Krejča

Tracer tests are the key technique to characterize karst conduits. Hundreds of thousands tracer tests done worldwide showing typical flow velocities in conduits in km/day. In contrast slow flow in fractions of m/day is typical for porous aquifers. This study reports surprisingly slow flow velocity obtained from karst conduit in small metamorphosed carbonate occurrence in Czech Republic. Factors responsible for exceptionally slow flow are discussed.

Chýnov Karst is formed by several km long but few hundred meters wide carbonates strip inside gneiss in slightly undulated landscape. It hosts karst conduit traversed by small subterranean stream (5-13 L/s, observation since 2001), fed by diffuse recharge, no sinking streams occur in area. Karst conduit is accessible at two places: Chýnov Cave and 1200 m distant spring Rutice. The carbonate strip is traversed perpendicularly by two small streams, which valleys contain Miocene Mydlovary Formation. The river network and karst conduit could be dated back at least to Miocene, as demonstrated by Miocene sediments below the recent streams. There are no signs of hypogenic origin. Cave is formed by deep phreatic loops indicating low density of fractures available for conduit forming. No transport of sediment was ever observed, the water remains limpid and flow in conduit is nearly constant.

Tracer tests from 1960 indicated residence time in days, but individual results strongly differed, therefore new tracer test was performed using uranine in 2021. Uranine concentration has been monitored by field fluorometers GGUN-30 (Albilia, Switzerland) and laboratory fluorimeter Perkin Elmer LS55 for more than 3 years (continues). Breakthrough curve was analyzed by Qtracer2 code. New tracer test demonstrated residence time 1.4 year between cave and Rutice spring, which is equal to mean flow velocity 3.6 m/day. Volume of mobile water in conduit is 252000 m3 which is equal to average cross section of conduit 140 m2 . Tracer recovery is currently 25%. Tracer did not arrive to any other spring or stream in wider surrounding. Large conduit volume and low flow rate are responsible for extremely slow flow and long residence time. Large volumes are probably primarily caused by deep phreatic loops in cave. Phreatic loops disable under gentle landscape the transport of sediment from streams to cave.

Therefore, the localized sinks can never develop in the area. As a consequence, the corrosion over more than 20 million years ever increases the conduit volume and no sediment is transported inside to infill it. Existence of this conduit indicates that low fracture density resulting in deep phreatic loops can in combination with gentle morphology over long time period result in evolution voluminous conduits with very slow flow. If Chýnov cave is not known in the area the long residence time of water and low flow fluctuation will be considered as indication of non-existence of karst conduits.

Funded by the GAUK No. 171624.

How to cite: Koutník, J., Mareš, J., Bruthans, J., and Krejča, F.: Extremely slow flow in voluminous karst conduit developed in metamorphosed carbonates: Result of long-term evolution and lack of sediment transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12298, 2025.

EGU25-13427 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Effect of precipitation on well water levels and drip water intensity in the Buda Castle Cave 

Fanni Gazda, Dávid Farkas, Géza Hajnal, and Klaudia Négyesi

The Buda Castle Cave, consisting of natural limestone formations and artificial corridors, lies under the Buda Castle Hill. The landscape of the area above the cave is part of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites. In the area of the Great Labyrinth – part of the Castle Cave – the infiltrating water seems to have reached an amount, that has never been experienced before, and it has also caused more intense weathering and rock falls, especially on the roof of the cave. The main motivation of the research was to preserve the condition of the Castle Cave and the priceless historical and cultural values of the Buda Castle District above by determining the origin of cave waters. In order to achieve this goal, a detailed study of the water conditions in the cave was necessary. Data on the cave system's current water conditions were limited, as the latest measurements were carried out between 2008 and 2010. The monitoring started again in October 2023, and several measurements were carried out to quantify the water conditions and to determine the origin of the cave waters. In addition to measuring the water level in the cave wells and conducting pumping tests, the amount of drip water was measured using self-made tipping bucket gauges and ad hoc field tests. The temporal resolution of the measurements was much more detailed than in previous studies. After processing the data, statistical analyses were performed on the measured data. The precipitation in the area was correlated to well water level and drip water intensity time series. The precipitation data were shifted by different numbers of days, and the maximum correlation coefficients were determined using linear regression. The correlation analyses indicated only a weak relationship, so other – presumably anthropogenic – effects may be present. Although strong linear relation between daily precipitation and daily average water levels and drip water intensities was not revealed, some assumptions could be made. In one of the wells, there was found a weak connection to the precipitation about three months prior and two drip locations in the Castle Cave had very similar correlation coefficient values. However, further measurements are essential to draw more accurate conclusions about the origin of the cave waters.

How to cite: Gazda, F., Farkas, D., Hajnal, G., and Négyesi, K.: Effect of precipitation on well water levels and drip water intensity in the Buda Castle Cave, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13427, 2025.

EGU25-13698 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Rough-surfaced fracture generation with variable aperture using self-affine methods 

Brandon Stock and Andrew Frampton

Synthetic rough-surfaced fractures have been successfully generated using methods founded on self-affine principles, which can be based on properties obtained from fracture surface measurements. In order to generate fractures using self-affine methods, a function describing the correlation between the upper and lower surfaces is required, as well as two key parameters, the Hurst exponent H and a scaling parameter Sp. In current literature, there are several methods for determining H and Sp which are primarily adopted for measurements of 1-dimensional fracture traces. There are however comparatively few studies using these methods with measurements of surface scans and applying them to generate realistic fractures. In this work, we evaluate two methods commonly used, the root-mean-square correlation function (RMS-COR) and the Fourier Power Spectrum (FPS) approach, each with several variations of possible implementation when applied to measurements of fracture surfaces.

To obtain an accurate representation of the aperture field and rough surfaces we use high resolution surface scans of a natural fracture sample. For each method variation 100 realisations of the aperture fields are generated and their respective ensembles are evaluated against the measured aperture distribution. The most accurate method for obtaining H and Sp in terms of its ability to generate apertures that correspond with the measured fracture sample studied was the RMS-COR method. We show a linear relationship between H and Sp that provides a best fit of synthetically generated fractures when compared with the measured fracture sample. We also introduce an improved approach for representing the correlation function between two rough surfaces. Finally, using a restricted subsection of the sample, we demonstrate the developed model can successfully generate upscaled fractures. Thus, aperture fields generated using this method can be used for representing and modelling larger fractures or multiple fractures in a network, allowing for numerical flow simulations to include realistic representations of aperture internal heterogeneity based on measurements obtained from a natural rock fracture. 

How to cite: Stock, B. and Frampton, A.: Rough-surfaced fracture generation with variable aperture using self-affine methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13698, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13698, 2025.

EGU25-14065 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Development of a Robust Geological Model to Explain Creosote Flow and Transport in a Sole-Source Carbonate Aquifer  

Zachary Walker, Beth Parker, Emmanuelle Arnaud, Steven Chapman, Peeter Pehme, Ryan Kroeker, and Jonathan Kennel

Fractured rock aquifers pose challenges for flow system characterization due to the complex nature of fracture networks controlling the bulk hydraulic conductivity within and across hydrologic units. The distinct depositional characteristics of mud-rich carbonate facies as well as the post-depositional alteration of material via diagenesis often result in highly anisotropic flow systems. The lithostratigraphic properties and sequence stratigraphic surfaces in sedimentary bedrock are known to affect fracture development and connectivity. The objective of our study is to build a robust geologic model to inform fracture network connectivity influencing vertical and horizontal flow of groundwater and creosote DNAPL in a shallow Silurian limestone aquifer located on the island of Gotland, Sweden. 

Previous consulting studies using conventional wells showed widespread presence of dissolved phase creosote constituents and occasional presence of non-aqueous phase components near and away from the historical operations area. The current research investigation aims to use recently advanced high-resolution methods to build a robust, hydraulically-calibrated geologic framework.  It began with six ODEX air-rotary boreholes, drilled 30m below the top of rock around the perimeter of known contamination at the site.  Four additional boreholes were cored using GeoBore-S diamond bit wireline drilling within the contaminated zone to provide continuous core for lithology and fracture feature logging.  These four cores were also used to inform sample locations near and away from fractures for contaminant concentrations and rock physical properties. All 10 new boreholes were geophysically logged to inform the placement of temperature and pressure transducers in the boreholes, which were then sealed in place using flexible, impermeable fabric liners (FLUTe™) for depth-discrete dynamic hydraulic head monitoring.

Lithology and fracture-feature logs were collected and confirmed the sitewide presence of limestone-marl alternations with a high propensity for laterally extensive, bedding plane fractures dipping south-southeast. Depth-discrete rock samples for VOC and PAH contaminant analyses confirmed that: 1) matrix diffusion of PAH compounds from hydraulically active fractures was limited due to low aqueous solubilities, low porosity and high sorption, 2) downward migration of creosote through vertical fractures was likely inhibited by the lack of vertical connectivity between fine-grained limestone facies imparting strong anisotropy, the near neutral density of the creosote as a NAPL and the high sorption of low solubility solutes in the organic-rich marlstone units. Downhole geophysics and core logs also confirmed that a weathered bedrock zone at the overburden-bedrock interface exists sitewide and contained the highest contaminant concentrations.  This sediment-bedrock interface may serve as a preferential pathway for the lateral migration of the marginally dense creosote oil. In combination, these data provide a process-based conceptual site model that can be used to accurately model fluid flow and plume mobility, improving risk assessment and remediation efficacy.

 

How to cite: Walker, Z., Parker, B., Arnaud, E., Chapman, S., Pehme, P., Kroeker, R., and Kennel, J.: Development of a Robust Geological Model to Explain Creosote Flow and Transport in a Sole-Source Carbonate Aquifer , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14065, 2025.

EGU25-14594 | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Reservoir and geomechanical simulation study of CO2 EGR at the shallow biogenic gas reservoir in Indonesia 

Taehun Lee, Sunyoung Park, and Wonsuk Lee

Shallow biogenic gas fields are widely distributed in the world, but their development is limited due to their smaller scale and lower reservoir pressure compared to conventional gas fields. However, as the discovery of new reservoirs becomes increasingly challenging and the demand for gas as a clean energy source continues to rise, the development of shallow biogenic gas fields is necessary. Specially, the total biogenic gas reserves in Indonesia are around 152.9 TCF, and the contribution of biogenic gas to the total reserves is only around 7.2 TCF (4.7%). In this study, we conducted reservoir and geomechanical simulation studies for the enhancement of gas recovery and analysis of the geomechanical stability in Indonesian biogenic shallow gas field. Geomechanical analysis is essential because many shallow gas fields are consisted of unconsolidated sandstone.

How to cite: Lee, T., Park, S., and Lee, W.: Reservoir and geomechanical simulation study of CO2 EGR at the shallow biogenic gas reservoir in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14594, 2025.

EGU25-16662 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.9

Direct numerical investigation of turbulent and laminar flow in karst conduits 

Ismail El Mellas, Tanguy Racine, Juan José Hidalgo, Philippe Renard, and Marco Dentz

Karst aquifers, characterised by extensive and intricate conduit networks, serve a critical role in groundwater flow and contaminant transport. These natural systems exhibit complex geometrical features, including branching conduits, variations in cross-sectional shape, and significant wall roughness (k/D≈10-1). Such heterogeneity makes it challenging to understand and predict flow patterns, friction losses, and the onset of turbulent behaviour in karst environments. Accurate characterisation of flow dynamics at the conduit scale is therefore essential for developing robust numerical models and reliable management strategies.

This study aims to investigate flow behaviour within representative karst conduits to determine key geometrical and fluid mechanical parameters, such as average cross-sectional areas, cave centrelines, friction factors, and velocity distributions by means of direct numerical simulations in a wide range of flow conditions (Re=1-104). These parameters are fundamental inputs for upscaling methodologies that aim to describe entire karst networks without resolving every conduit in detail. A combination of finite-volume and spectral element methods is employed, each chosen to capture specific flow regimes. At lower Reynolds numbers, a finite-volume approach is used to accurately resolve laminar flows, while at higher Reynolds numbers, a spectral element method is implemented to better capture the full range of turbulent flow scales.

The conduit geometries used in the simulations are reconstructed from high-resolution LiDAR scans of real karst formations. The provided STL files preserve critical features such as irregular walls, branching geometries, and variable cross-sections. To ensure accurate resolution of the boundary, an immersed boundary technique is applied in conjunction with a ray-tracing algorithm. This combined approach precisely identifies the conduit walls, thereby facilitating the correct imposition of boundary conditions in these complex geometries.

Preliminary results for low Reynolds number flows show that laminar assumptions can hold in certain portions of the conduit, leading to streamlined centreline velocities and predictable head losses. However, irregular conduit shapes disrupt the flow field, causing spatial variations that deviate significantly from classical smooth-channel results. As also observed in a previous wavy-channel investigation, transitional flows can occur much earlier than predicted by standard empirical correlations (Re ≤ 1500), suggesting that conventional methods for estimating friction factors may be insufficient for karst-specific conditions and to account for the marked heterogeneity of the systems. 

The implications of this study are crucial not only for single conduits but also for the better understanding of network-scale flow dynamics, which enables more accurate prediction of groundwater movement and contaminant dispersion in karst aquifers. Furthermore, the hydraulic parameters identified in this investigation are highly valuable for upscaling models, as they allow for their incorporation into comprehensive karst network simulations, thereby improving the assessment of these systems.

How to cite: El Mellas, I., Racine, T., Hidalgo, J. J., Renard, P., and Dentz, M.: Direct numerical investigation of turbulent and laminar flow in karst conduits, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16662, 2025.

EGU25-17039 | Orals | HS8.2.9

Upwelling geothermal flow and retrograde solubility lead to hypogene speleogenesis in carbonate aquifers 

Piotr Szymczak, Roi Roded, Einat Aharonov, Amos Frumkin, Nurit Weber, and Boaz Lazar

Extensive karstification and speleogenesis in carbonates can be induced by the rise of hydrothermal fluids. However, the contribution of different geochemical and hydrogeological mechanisms to this process remains unclear, and a variety of reactivity sources, as well as hydrogeological mechanisms, were suggested. These include renewed reactivity by mixing of different solutions or condensation corrosion above the groundwater table [1-4]. However, the role of cooling and retrograde solubility of carbonates as a major hypogene speleogenesis mechanism was often considered negligible (e.g., [1] & [2]) or attributed to the development of diffuse karst [3]. Here, using mathematical modeling, we study speleogenesis induced by upwelling thermal flow, enriched by deep CO2 fluxes, that upon cooling leads to large retrograde solubility and extensive dissolution. The conceptual model we suggest, consistent with our case study of hypogene caves [5], considers upwelling of focused channelized thermal flow through faults. Upon approaching an impermeable caprock this flow is diverted sideways and flows radially along permeable bedding planes and fractures in limestone strata (inception horizons). Radially dispersed hot flow then cools rapidly via heat transfer to the surrounding rock, leading to focused dissolution and, over time-scales of 10 000 - 100 000 yrs, to speleogenesis near the inlet. Because the caves are isolated and breakthrough to the surface is not achieved during speleogenesis, the overall permeability and fluid flux do not appreciably change, so that dissolution remains localized, forming a cave. The model also predicts that maximal fluid cooling and dissolution are attained slightly downstream from the inlet, for which corresponding field observations are presented. These findings show that geothermal heat loss by upwelling of thermal fluids, in conjunction with deep CO2 fluxes, may shape and extensively karstify carbonate aquifers in the upper crust, with the formation of sizable speleological structures [6].

[1] Palmer, A.N., Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 103(1), 1-21, 1991

[2] Klimchouk, A.B., In: White, W.B., Culver, D.C. (Eds.), 2nd ed. Academic Press, New York, 748–765, 2012

[3] Andre, B.J. and Rajaram, H., Water Resour. Res., 41, W01015, 2005

[4] Dreybrodt, W., Gabrovsek, F., Romanov, D., Processes of Speleogenesis: A Modeling Approach, ZRC Publishing, 2005

[5] Frumkin, A. et al., Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 129(11-12), 1636-1659, 2017

[6] Roded, R., Aharonov, E., Frumkin, A., Weber, N., Lazar, B., and Szymczak, P. , Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 465, 2023

How to cite: Szymczak, P., Roded, R., Aharonov, E., Frumkin, A., Weber, N., and Lazar, B.: Upwelling geothermal flow and retrograde solubility lead to hypogene speleogenesis in carbonate aquifers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17039, 2025.

Karst aquifers provide approximately 9.2 % of the global population with drinking water (Stevanović, 2019), and therefore, their proper water resource management is an important task. The assessment of available water resources requires both, the identification of the structure of the aquifer geometry including phreatic and vadose zone and the characterization of hydraulic parameters. However, the heterogeneity of karst systems poses a challenge for the accurate characterization based on numerical modeling approaches and obstructs risk assessment efforts. Highly conductive features within the vadose zone offer a domain for rapid infiltration via preferential pathways that may not be accurately recovered by classical instruments, e.g., the Richards equation, since gravity-driven flow regimes may prevail. Hence, we propose a distributed dual-domain modeling approach that accounts for both the diffuse infiltration through a porous matrix and film-flow on fracture surfaces. Phreatic flow, including flow within a porous matrix, flow in conduits, and an exchange between these domains, is realized by the numerical modeling framework implemented in MODFLOW-CFPv2. Furthermore, this study presents compartment-specific parameter sensitivities during infiltration events in a synthetic karst model and methodology to determine film-flow parameters based on field data, i.e., precipitation time series and water table fluctuations. The global sensitivity analysis highlights the influence of film-flow parameters, i.e., the limiting fracture facial area along the z-axis, Flim, and an activation threshold, qthr, while a recharge pulse persists. The delay between the commencement of infiltration and the hydraulic response at the water table, tlag, may be site-specific and relies on the availability of observation data with proper temporal and spatial resolution.

 

How to cite: Noffz, T., Kordilla, J., Reimann, T., Kavousi, A., Liedl, R., and Sauter, M.: Dual-domain modeling of infiltration dynamics in the vadose zone of karst systems using film-flow theory – Investigation of compartment-specific parameter sensitivities and film-flow parameters , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17671, 2025.

EGU25-17825 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.9

Revisiting Nitao's Analytical Model with Laboratory Experiments of Partially Saturated Fracture-Matrix Infiltration 

Florian Rüdiger, Marco Dentz, and Jannes Kordilla

We investigate infiltration into a single fracture embedded in an initially unsaturated sandstone with homogeneous matrix properties (doi: 10.1029/2023WR036323).

To outline the control of dual-porosity mechanisms, a classical analytical framework developed by Nitao (doi: 10.1029/91WR01369) was applied to model the observed infiltration behavior. Our study considered flow dynamics in terms of penetration depth, dominating flow regime (matrix- or fracture-dominated) related to applied flow rates, wetting front propagation in both domains, and the interference of matrix imbibition with the lateral boundary of the system. The employed model accounts for the matrix imbibition effect on fracture flow propagation.

Most interesting, matrix imbibition affected the observed discontinuous, partially saturated fracture flow (a combination of slugs and films) to behave, on average, like plug flow. Within the range of applied flow rates above a critical threshold, we found the model's plug flow assumption is not a relevant precondition for its applicability. Corresponding to the matrix imbibition state, fluid propagation in the fracture exhibits three characteristic scaling regimes (FP1-3). Only two scaling regimes are established for flow rates below a critical threshold, hence required to recover bulk infiltration for the chosen geometry. Furthermore, wetting fronts switch from fracture- to matrix-dominated at moderate to high flow rates, indicating a flow-rate-dependent limitation of fracture-dominated infiltration depth (source-responsive). While the scaling regimes agree with experiments for applied flow rates above the critical threshold, the model underestimates the initial penetration depth below. Here, we observe the direct onset of flow regime FP2 and the delayed transition into FP3.

How to cite: Rüdiger, F., Dentz, M., and Kordilla, J.: Revisiting Nitao's Analytical Model with Laboratory Experiments of Partially Saturated Fracture-Matrix Infiltration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17825, 2025.

The aim of the investigations in Northwestern Switzerland was to explore the hydraulic influence of tectonic structures within fractured and karstified sediments for the propagation of groundwater solutes, e.g. from contaminated sites or the dissolution of evaporites. For this purpose, structures detected within optical (OPTV) and acoustic (BHTV) images from 12 boreholes in depths up to 300m were compared to hydraulically relevant measurements. These include measurements from flowmeter, packer and pump tests, temperature and electrical conductivity of the pore water and estimations of hydraulic conductivities.

Results show that closed and open bedding planes are generally oriented close to the horizontal and can reach aperture widths of up to 2m (width averages between 35 and 225mm). In contrast, partly, or more largely open fracture planes frequently dip at an angle of almost 60° to the ESE and conjugate to the WNW (aperture width averages between 23 and 110mm). The average orientation of fractures corresponds to the main regional tectonic setting of horst and graben structures which have been mostly formed in the Oligocene. Both open bedding planes and open fractures potentially influence the resulting groundwater flow field. The apparently closed foliation surfaces observed in the evaporites show a rather uniform dip to the SW or NE with an angle of mostly less than 45°. This suggests that this younger tectonic overprint caused by ductile deformation is related to the formation of the NNW-ESE to NW-SE striking anticline structure.

The mean values of hydraulic conductivity (K) determined by flowmeter and packer tests for the open fractures are consistently higher than for the open bedding planes in the carbonates, whereas in the evaporites they remain similar. The highest K values in the 10-3m/s range were measured on average next to fractures of the dolomitic part of the carbonates, as well as in bedding planes and fractures of the calcitic part of the carbonates. The mean values of K determined next to the open structures in the evaporites (gypsum/anhydrites) are consistently approximately 2 orders of magnitude lower than in the carbonates. A comparison between detected aperture widths of open structures and corresponding estimated K over all 12 boreholes resulted in no significant correlation. A minor correlation was observed only in one single borehole between aperture width and K.

How to cite: Zechner, E. and Dresmann, H.: Hydraulic borehole characterization of geological structures in fractured and karstified carbonates and evaporites (Tabular Jura, Switzerland), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17855, 2025.

EGU25-20969 | Orals | HS8.2.9

Unresolved Issues in Fractured Rock Hydrology

Robert W. Zimmerman

EGU25-534 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.10

Groundwater Age Dating using Basinal Radiogenic Helium Diffusion Profile  

Fahad Souid, Darren Hillegonds, Sattam Mutairi, Ekaterina Kazak, Orfan Shoakar-Stash, Anran Cheng, and Chris Ballentine

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have been classified as water-scarce countries by the United Nations, which urges the need for groundwater management and protection. Groundwater age is key to the protection and management of non-renewable groundwater resources. Helium diffusion within the fluids of sedimentary basins is a new and little explored groundwater dating tool. The current study constructs a helium diffusion profile from the crystalline basement to the surface for two basins in the Arabian Peninsula: The Jafurah Basin and the Northwestern Basin. These profiles were corrected using 4He concentrations (n=56) from fluids of different formations within the sedimentary succession of the two basins. All measured 4He concentrations were found to be of crustal origin, with (R/Ra) corrected values ranging between 0.005 and 0.078. The measured 4He groundwater concentrations were shown to be within 1σ uncertainty of the diffusion model results, indicating absence of advective groundwater transport and diffusive loss of 4He. It was found that major tectonic events at the Oligocene (33-21Ma) and the Miocene (19-8Ma) flushed 4He basement flux in the shallow groundwater aquifers, leaving room for in-situ production only. 4He produced in-situ was deemed sufficient to be used in groundwater age calculations beyond radiocarbon capabilities. Additionally, analysis of 87Sr/86Sr, δ18O, δ2H, and radiocarbon proposed the presence of recent recharge. However, groundwater inheritance of paleo-seawater 87Sr/86Sr ratios indicated enhanced water-rock interaction (WRI), with little influence from modern-day seawater. This suggests mixing of recent recharge with the old groundwater depicted by 4He. Groundwater samples that had measurable 14C activity were also enriched in 4He, and such enrichment is too high to have accumulated over the residence time calculated by radiocarbon (2,817 – 30,100 yrs BP), especially in the absence of deep structural conduits e.g., faults and mega fractures. This challenges the conventional groundwater dating methods that presume one representative groundwater age. We conclude that groundwater age, especially that calculated from radiocarbon, represents a mean residence time of mixture of young and old endmembers, which proves 4He as a reliable chronometer for groundwater dating.

How to cite: Souid, F., Hillegonds, D., Mutairi, S., Kazak, E., Shoakar-Stash, O., Cheng, A., and Ballentine, C.: Groundwater Age Dating using Basinal Radiogenic Helium Diffusion Profile , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-534, 2025.

EGU25-1934 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.10

Testing Silica-Encapsulated DNA Molecules with Iron Nanocore as a Groundwater Tracer in Fractured Silurian Dolostone Bedrock 

Felix Nyarko, Ferdinando Manna, Jan Willem Foppen, and Beth L. Parker

DNA-based tracers have recently been used as groundwater tracers, primarily in granular aquifer media. Given the possibility of simultaneously applying and distinguishing multiple tracers with distinct DNA labels, they offer unique opportunities for tracing distinct pathways between injection and arrival points. They are synthesised by adsorbing DNA molecules on a silica or magnetite nanocore and encapsulated with a silica layer to protect the molecule against extreme temperatures, pH, and microbial attack. These nanotracers can be exponentially amplified, pushing the detection sensitivity down to one molecule, thus helping to mitigate the narrower detection range associated with conventional solutes.  However, when co-injected, both tracers are expected to follow the same preferential flow paths in a connected fracture network but with distinct travel times. While solute tracers are attenuated by diffusion into the matrix enhanced by sorption, the nanotracer mobility is dominated by advective transport enhanced by size exclusion. Considering the uncertainty in the nanotracer mobility, especially in bedrock aquifers, pairing these tracers provides complementary insight into the nature and variability of the fracture pathways and rates.

In this study, we co-injected a novel DNA-based nanotracer with magnetite nanocore (acronym: SiDNAMag) and Uranine in a Silurian dolostone aquifer under controlled natural gradient flow conditions to characterise fracture connectivity, groundwater velocities and diffusion process influences. The experiment was conducted at a toluene-contaminated site in Guelph, Canada, where depth-discrete multilevel systems (MLSs) were installed for 3D monitoring, improving insights on spatial variability in tracer transport. The tracer solution was injected at 0.5 L/min over a 1.6 m vertical interval, isolated with straddle packers in an upgradient well 10.5 m from the modestly pumped (0.11 L/min) extraction well and monitored from 15 MLSs comprising 82 ports. Using temporal moment analysis, we compared the transport of SiDNAMag to Uranine and observed the preferential flow geometries through the fractured dolostone aquifer. SiDNAMag showed an earlier breakthrough (2.25 h) compared to Uranine (6.25 h) at the extraction well with higher average velocity. 2.5% of Uranine mass was recovered, while SiDNAMag recovery was unquantifiable due to intermittent detection in the extraction well. SiDNAMag was predominantly detected at depths below the injection interval compared to Uranine, suggesting an influence of density on particle mobility. Preferential pathways also exist in the zone above the injection interval, evidenced by early detection of Uranine in the shallow ports of MLSs between the injection and extraction wells.

These findings enhance our understanding of fracture connectivity and the delineation of dominant flow pathways in the dolostone aquifer. They also provide insights into the variability of discrete fracture pathways within the 3D field domain, supporting the generation of fracture networks that accurately represent field conditions. Using HydroGeosphere, a discrete fracture matrix (DFM) numerical flow and transport model, these networks can be used to evaluate remediation strategies effectively. Although this study reveals SiDNAMag as a promising tool for groundwater tracing in fractured dolostone aquifers, a critical aspect of understanding its transport behaviour lies in examining the effects of groundwater chemistry and aquifer mineralogy on SiDNAMag. 

How to cite: Nyarko, F., Manna, F., Foppen, J. W., and Parker, B. L.: Testing Silica-Encapsulated DNA Molecules with Iron Nanocore as a Groundwater Tracer in Fractured Silurian Dolostone Bedrock, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1934, 2025.

EGU25-3407 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Evaluation of Index-Based Methods for Analyzing Seawater Intrusion Vulnerability in a Coastal Alluvial Aquifer of Eastern India 

Subhankar Ghosh, Madan Kumar Jha, and Vimlendra Mani Pandey

The present study aims to explore seawater intrusion vulnerability in a coastal alluvial aquifer of West Bengal state, eastern India, using two GIS-based indexing techniques, viz., GALDIT and DRASTIC. The study region, with an area of 6358.70 km2, is underlain by two main aquifer systems (‘leaky confined’ and ‘confined’ aquifers). Daily rainfall data of 2020–2021, Pre-Monsoon (PRM) and Post-Monsoon (POM) seasons’ groundwater-level and groundwater-quality (EC, Clˉ and HCO3ˉ) data of 2021 for leaky confined aquifer, and lithology logs data were used. The GALDIT method incorporates six hydrogeochemical parameters as inputs, viz., groundwater occurrence (G), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (A), groundwater elevation (L), distance from the seashore (D), impact of existing seawater intrusion status (I), and aquifer thickness (T). Conversely, inputs to the DRASTIC method are: depth to groundwater level (D), net recharge (R), aquifer media (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). All these thematic layers and their features were assigned weights and ratings, respectively, following original GALDIT and DRASTIC methodology. Seasonal seawater intrusion vulnerability maps were prepared using weighted overlay analysis in ArcGIS environment. Based on GALDIT Vulnerability Indices (GVI), the study area was delineated into three vulnerability zones, viz., ‘low’ (GVI=2.5–5.0), ‘moderate’ (GVI=5.0–7.5), and ‘high’ (GVI>7.5). Similarly, the whole area was categorized into three vulnerability zones depending on DRASTIC Vulnerability Indices (DVI), viz., ‘low’ (DVI=18–61), ‘moderate’ (DVI=61–104), and ‘high’ (DVI=104–146). Results of the GALDIT method indicated 19–31% of the total area under ‘low’, 66–78% under ‘moderate’ and 3–4% under ‘high’ vulnerability classes in different seasons. Outcomes of the DRASTIC method revealed 21–78% area under ‘moderate’ and 22–79% under ‘high’ vulnerability classes. Finally, results of GALDIT and DRASTIC methods were validated with measured Electrical Conductivity (EC) concentrations. As per drinking and irrigation suitability, seasonal EC maps were categorized into three classes, viz., ‘acceptable/low hazardous’ (EC<750 μS/cm), ‘permissible/moderate hazardous’ (EC=750–3000 μS/cm), and ‘not suitable/high hazardous’ (EC>3000 μS/cm). The GALDIT method predicted 50–64% less area as ‘low’, 47–61% higher area as ‘moderate’, and 3–3.5% more area as ‘high’ vulnerable zones compared to the corresponding EC classes. Conversely, the DRASTIC technique estimated 81–84% less area as ‘low’, 2–61% higher area as ‘moderate’, and 22–79% more area as ‘high’ vulnerable zones. Moreover, moderate correlations were found between GVI and EC in both PRM (r=0.518) and POM (r=0.589) seasons, whereas poor correlations were found among DVI and EC in both PRM (r=0.442) and POM (r=0.118) seasons. Additionally, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves revealed high Area Under the Curve (AUC) values for the GALDIT method in both PRM (AUC=0.872) and POM (AUC=0.891) seasons, whereas lower AUC values were obtained for the DRASTIC method in both PRM (AUC=0.810) and POM (AUC=0.573) seasons. Therefore, these results suggest that the GALDIT method delineated seawater intrusion vulnerable zones much better than the DRASTIC method. The outcomes of this research will aid in identifying priority zones (moderate-to-high vulnerable) to implement efficient groundwater-quality management programs.

How to cite: Ghosh, S., Jha, M. K., and Pandey, V. M.: Evaluation of Index-Based Methods for Analyzing Seawater Intrusion Vulnerability in a Coastal Alluvial Aquifer of Eastern India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3407, 2025.

EGU25-3858 | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

The Wairau River hydrologic system: where are the old-water stores, and do floods push groundwater faster through the coastal aquifer? 

Uwe Morgenstern, Mike Stewart, Peter Gardner, and Peter Davidson

Our current knowledge about the water dynamics through groundwater systems is primarily based on observations of celerity - pressure responses at wells and flow increases at springs. However, it is velocity of the water that characterises hydrologic systems, regarding water quantity and transport of water contaminants.

Tritium data from the Wairau River around Blenheim, New Zealand, indicate 50% of baseflow has a mean transit time (MTT) of 8 years (Taylor et al., 1992; Morgenstern et al., 2019). The other 50% is younger water. The groundwater storage to provide such long transit times was attributed to large deposits of scree and alluvium infilling U-shaped glacial valleys in the headwater areas of the Upper Wairau catchment.

However, after collecting baseflow samples from these scree discharges, we did not find dominance of old water with MTT=8 years. The old water storage must therefore be attributed to the deep groundwater flow system in the entire Wairau River catchment.

In the coastal Wairau Fan, where the river loses water into the aquifer, with extremely high hydraulic conductivity and groundwater MTTs of only a few months, we traced a seasonal 18O spike from the river through the aquifer to the discharge of the aquifer, Spring Creek. This revealed that even after extreme rain events which cause immediately elevated water levels and aquifer discharges, the discharging water remains old. After the extreme Marlborough flood in August 2022, with rivers showing the highest flows on record, the elevated flows at Spring Creek appeared to be nearly unchanged in their natural annual cycle of water transit time. This implies that the elevated flow following the flood and associated with much elevated water levels in the aquifer, was caused by old water flow paths activated due to the increased hydraulic loading and supplementing the normal shallow flow.

It came to a surprise when we found a similar activation of old-water flow paths in drinking water supply wells in the confined aquifers in the Heretaunga Plains, with a change to slightly older water in the wells following the extreme flooding caused by Cyclone Gabrielle. To find such an old-water flow activation as the main cause for the elevated flows also in the unconfined aquifer of the Wairau Fan was another surprise.

References

Taylor CB, Brown LJ, Cunliffe JJ, Davidson PW. 1992. Environmental tritium and 18O applied in a hydrological study of the Wairau Plain and its contributing mountain catchments, Marlborough, New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology. 138(1):269–319.

Morgenstern U, Davidson P, Townsend DB, White PA, van der Raaij RW, Stewart MK, Moreau M, Daughney C. 2019. From rain through river catchment to aquifer: the flow of water through the Wairau hydrologic system. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 83 p. (GNS Science report; 2019/63)

How to cite: Morgenstern, U., Stewart, M., Gardner, P., and Davidson, P.: The Wairau River hydrologic system: where are the old-water stores, and do floods push groundwater faster through the coastal aquifer?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3858, 2025.

EGU25-3967 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.10

The impact of groundwater age and flow patterns on water quality in the Milk River Aquifer, Canada 

Avadhoot Date, Bernhard Mayer, Pauline Humez, Michael Nightingale, Peter Mueller, Michael Bishof, Jeremy Lantis, Christof Vockenhuber, Jose Corcho, Roland Purtschert, Reika Yokochi, Neil Sturchio, Ranjeet Nagare, and Stephen Wheatcraft

The Milk River Aquifer (MRA) is a regional transboundary aquifer covering over 26,000 km2 across northern Montana (USA) and southern Alberta (Canada). Extensive groundwater extraction since 1960s has led to a decline in groundwater levels, thereby emphasizing the need for informed water management strategies. The objective of this study was to improve the understanding of spatial variations in major ion concentrations with respect to groundwater age and flow paths, and to  identify key geochemical processes that influence groundwater quality within the aquifer. A comprehensive digital database was developed using hydrogeological and geochemical data from 1,429 water samples collected from 549 wells. Additionally, 20 new  groundwater samples and associated gases were collected during a 2022 field campaign, and these samples were analyzed for concentrations of major and minor ions, gas composition, stable isotope ratios (2H/1H and 18O/16O of water, 13C/12C of DIC and 34S/32S of sulfate, 13C/12C and 2H/1H of methane), and radioactive isotopes (⁸¹Kr, ³⁶Cl and ¹⁴CDIC).

Utilizing a newly updated groundwater numerical flow model (FEFLOW software) in combination with recent 14C and 81Kr-based groundwater age dates, distinct patterns in chloride (Cl) concentrations dependent on groundwater age and flow path were identified. Groundwater less than 34,000 years old exhibited Cl concentrations < 25 mg/L near the recharge zone, while groundwater exceeding 200,000 years in age had Cl concentrations > 100mg/L at distances of 125 km from the recharge zone. Increasing δ²H and δ¹⁸O values in older groundwater with elevated Cl concentrations indicate possible mixing of fresh recharge water with formation water from northern regions of the aquifer (Taber and Bow Island formations) or associated aquitards (Pakowki and Colorado formations). Ongoing analysis explores variations in other major ions with a specific interest in redox-sensitive species as a function of flow distance and groundwater age. Preliminary results reveal that elevated sulfate concentrations (> 1200 mg/L) in recharging groundwater are due to pyrite oxidation, but at groundwater flow distances between 50 and 75 km bacterial sulphate reduction becomes dominant resulting in sulfate concentrations < 1 mg/L. At flow distances >80 km, redox conditions become favourable for methanogenesis resulting in occurrence of biogenic methane in groundwater. A particle tracking algorithm within the updated numerical flow model was employed to compare residence times with groundwater ages determined from 81Kr measurements. The tracer ages (14C and 81Kr) were confirmed using a numerical particle tracking model based on an existing numerical steady-state groundwater flow model (FEFLOW). The outcomes of this study that utilizes innovative groundwater age dating tools (81Kr) are new insights into how geochemical processes evolve with respect to flow distance and groundwater age thereby modifying spatial variability of key water quality parameters within the Milk River Aquifer.

How to cite: Date, A., Mayer, B., Humez, P., Nightingale, M., Mueller, P., Bishof, M., Lantis, J., Vockenhuber, C., Corcho, J., Purtschert, R., Yokochi, R., Sturchio, N., Nagare, R., and Wheatcraft, S.: The impact of groundwater age and flow patterns on water quality in the Milk River Aquifer, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3967, 2025.

EGU25-7579 | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

A tracer test for evaluating the heterogeneity of a shallow groundwater aquifer in a mountainous catchment 

Ching-Huei kuo, Pei-Yun Tseng, and Yi-Ling Chen

Two multi-well tracer tests were conducted on two sides of a creek to investigate the regional groundwater flow and examine the region heterogeneity of conservative tracers. The sulfonic acids were used due to their reasonably good thermal stability and easily be analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) using uv-absorbance detection.  Two breakthrough curves with multi-peaks were received and used to understand the existence of a hydraulic connection between injection and production wells but also used to gather crucial information about aquifer properties by using analytical models.  An analytical model, multi-fractures mode, was particularly used in matching tracer return curves.  Results show the existence of a dominated advection through a couple of fast flow paths/fractures between injection and receiving wells for one set while the other pairs have strong dispersion accompanied by the advection flow.

How to cite: kuo, C.-H., Tseng, P.-Y., and Chen, Y.-L.: A tracer test for evaluating the heterogeneity of a shallow groundwater aquifer in a mountainous catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7579, 2025.

EGU25-7729 | Orals | HS8.2.10

Dating of groundwater with 85Kr, 39Ar and 81Kr 

Florian Ritterbusch, Xin Feng, Wei Jiang, Hao Li, Qiao-Song Lin, Zheng-Tian Lu, Zhao-Feng Wan, Jie Wang, and Guo-Min Yang

85Kr (t1/2=10.7 a), 39Ar (t1/2=268 a) and 81Kr (t1/2=229 ka) are valuable isotopes for radiometric dating of groundwater, especially due to their gaseous properties and chemical inertness. Together with 14C, these radioisotopes cover the age range from present back to 1.5 million years. Due to their extremely low environmental abundances of 10-17…10-11, corresponding to only a few thousand atoms per kilogram of water or ice, the detection of these isotopes is very challenging. In the recent two decades, the laser-based method Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA) has succeeded in measuring these radioisotopes in water and ice samples of <10 kg, enabling applications in groundwater, ocean water and glacier ice.

Here, we present dating of groundwater with 85Kr, 39Ar and 81Kr, using ATTA for the radioisotope measurement. Recent progress on high precision 81Kr analysis has closed the dating gap between 14C and 81Kr, allowing for 81Kr dating of groundwater from the last glacial maximum to the beginning of the Holocene. Crucial advances in the ATTA instruments have moreover enabled a sample size reduction down to 1 kg of water or ice, allowing for dating of groundwater also under special conditions, such as in fractured rock aquifers with very low flow rate. The smaller sample size also facilitates simplified sampling schemes, e.g. sampling water directly instead of degassing it in the field.

How to cite: Ritterbusch, F., Feng, X., Jiang, W., Li, H., Lin, Q.-S., Lu, Z.-T., Wan, Z.-F., Wang, J., and Yang, G.-M.: Dating of groundwater with 85Kr, 39Ar and 81Kr, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7729, 2025.

EGU25-7824 | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Groundwater Dominance in Streamflow Generation of a Semi-Humid Headwater in North China: Insights from Isotope Analysis 

Zitong Xu, Fuqiang Tian, Zhen Cui, Yi Nan, and Rui Tong

Understanding water sources, flow paths, and mixing patterns in headwater catchments is essential for effective hydrological research, water resource management, and water-related disaster control. This study investigates the Xitaizi Experimental Watershed (XEW) in North China, a semi-humid monsoonal forested catchment, using stable isotopes (δD, δ¹⁸O) and tritium (³H) alongside End-Member Mixing Models (EMMM) and Lumped Parameter Models (LPM) over three hydrological years with varying hydroclimatic conditions. Results indicate that during storm events, old water constitutes 86.2% to 99.2% of streamflow, primarily influenced by rainfall amount and antecedent wetness. Tritium-based age estimations reveal groundwater ages of 14–20 years, soil water of 6–10 years, and river water of 6–9 years. The estimated active aquifer storage ranged 1.0–2.6 meters of water. The study highlights XEW’s substantial groundwater storage capacity, which consistently contributes to river flow under varying hydrological conditions, though preferential release of soil water occurs during storm event. These findings underscore the critical role of groundwater in sustaining streamflow and the necessity for careful water resource management. Additionally, the research emphasizes the importance of precise parameter selection in tracer-based modeling and calls for future high-resolution, long-term studies to further refine hydrological understanding.

How to cite: Xu, Z., Tian, F., Cui, Z., Nan, Y., and Tong, R.: Groundwater Dominance in Streamflow Generation of a Semi-Humid Headwater in North China: Insights from Isotope Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7824, 2025.

EGU25-7985 | Orals | HS8.2.10 | Highlight

Tracing groundwater flow paths in a contaminated fractured and karst aquifer using fluorescent dyes and silica-encapsulated DNA nanoparticles: challenges and insights 

Maria Filippini, Lola Neuert, Ernesto Pugliese, Cristina Giuliani, Giorgia Bolognesi, Erica Tamagnini, Maria Elena Cavallini, Stefano Filippini, Riccardo Mozzi, and Alessandro Gargini

Reconstructing flow directions and velocities in highly heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, such as fractured and karstified systems, poses significant challenges. These arise from both the inherent complexity of the hydrogeological context and the technical and physicochemical interferences that contaminated sites can impose on the logistics and outcomes of tracer tests.

A short-term (14-day) tracer test was conducted under perturbed conditions in a fractured and karstified aquifer in Southern Italy, at a site contaminated by petroleum hydrocarbons and other pollutants. The objective was to gather critical insights into the dynamics of subsurface flow to inform subsequent contamination management and remediation strategies. Multiple tracers were used, including fluorescent dyes and silica-encapsulated DNA-labeled nanoparticles. Silica-encapsulated DNA nanoparticles hold significant potential as hydrogeological tracers due to their non-toxic nature, physicochemical stability, and exceptional detectability at extremely low concentrations via qPCR. However, their performance in real-world applications remains under investigation.

Three synthetic DNA nanotracers were injected into three wells, alongside two conservative dye tracers, Uranine and Tinopal. All three DNA tracers were successfully detected in groundwater samples collected from pumping wells at distances ranging from 30 to 160 meters from the injection point, indicating flow velocities between 7 and 130 m/day. While the fluorescent dyes traveled at comparable velocities, they covered shorter distances and exhibited delayed peak arrivals relative to the DNA tracers. Additionally, the detection of fluorescent dyes was sometimes hindered by the presence of hydrocarbons, a limitation that did not affect the DNA nanotracers. The tracer recovery results ultimately facilitated the identification of primary and secondary groundwater flow directions, some of which deviated from expectations based on the site’s preliminary conceptual groundwater flow model. Overall, the tracer test results underscored notable differences between the two tracer types, suggesting that DNA nanotracers and fluorescent dyes may navigate distinct porosity systems, offering complementary insights into the aquifer's structure and dynamics.

While the results are promising and demonstrate the potential of combining fluorescent dyes and DNA nanotracers for applications in highly heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, further research is needed to evaluate the versatility of DNA tracers in field applications. This includes addressing both field and analytical challenges, as well as better assessing their comparative utility relative to conventional dye tracers.

How to cite: Filippini, M., Neuert, L., Pugliese, E., Giuliani, C., Bolognesi, G., Tamagnini, E., Cavallini, M. E., Filippini, S., Mozzi, R., and Gargini, A.: Tracing groundwater flow paths in a contaminated fractured and karst aquifer using fluorescent dyes and silica-encapsulated DNA nanoparticles: challenges and insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7985, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7985, 2025.

In Quaternary hydrogeological zones along large rivers, performing a simple groundwater balance is highly challenging. Quantifying groundwater resources is particularly difficult due to their variability over time, influenced by replenishment possibility and usage intensity. Groundwater flows from slopes in adjacent hydrogeological zones of the base layer, drains from underlying hydrogeological zones, recharges through precipitation, or inflows from rivers. The Quaternary hydrogeological zones contain numerous abstraction areas where withdrawals, along with groundwater inflows from surrounding areas and bedrock, drought, recharge rates, and surface water levels, influence observed groundwater levels. The resulting groundwater level in monitored wells reflects the combined impact of these factors, regardless of their fluctuating contributions.

The only consistently measurable variable is groundwater withdrawal, which has been recorded since 1980. Withdrawals can significantly affect groundwater levels, especially during dry periods such as 1990 – 1994 and 2015–2020. The highest recorded groundwater abstraction in the Quaternary hydrogeological regions occurred in 1989, reaching approximately 5.2 m³/s. Withdrawals began to decline substantially after 1994. During 1990 – 1994, a hydrological drought coincided with high withdrawals. This dry period was comparable in scope and duration to the drought during 2015–2020. Time series of base flow data from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute indicate that inflows or base flow from underlying hydrogeological zones reached historical minimums during 2015–2020. The second-lowest base flow was recorded for 1990–1994. Low base flows are typically caused by reduced recharge during dry periods, which also lead to a significant drop in groundwater levels. Unsurprisingly, both periods 1990 – 1994 and 2015 – 2020 are characterized by the lowest groundwater levels observed in monitoring network wells over the past 40 years.

The primary distinguishing factor between these two periods is groundwater withdrawals. During 1990 – 1994, withdrawals averaged around 5 m³/s, whereas by 2015 – 2020, abstractions had decreased to half that amount. This reduction often led to groundwater levels in 1990 – 1994 being significantly lower than those in 2015 – 2020. Based on the observed impacts of groundwater withdrawals on levels during dry periods, this study provides an assessment of groundwater balance in individual Quaternary hydrogeological zones.

How to cite: Nol, O., Zrazavecky, M., and Zabka, V.: Evaluation of Groundwater Balance in Quaternary Hydrogeological Zones Using Historical Records of Groundwater Levels and Withdrawals in Czechia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8147, 2025.

Due to the high heterogeneity of karst aquifers, understanding the transport of contaminants within karst underground river systems remains challenging. Moreover, there is limited knowledge regarding the risks posed by pollutants in karst aquifers and their attenuation potential. To characterize the differential transport and release of various contaminants through different recharge pathways in a karst underground river system. This study integrates intermittent inputs of acid mine drainage (AMD) and conservative dye tracers. High-frequency monitoring of discharge and water quality, along with breakthrough curve (BTC) analysis of the tracers, was conducted to perform both qualitative and quantitative assessments. The research was carried out in a typical karst underground river system (Qingxisi) located in western Hubei, China. The results revealed three distinct, non-intersecting karst conduits that converged at the underground river outlet. Among them, Conduit 1 was unaffected by AMD pollution, while Conduits 2 and 3 exhibited contaminant transport distances exceeding 10 km. Notably, the arrival of AMD pollutants was significantly delayed compared to the arrival of Conduit  1, with Conduit 2 demonstrating a faster transport velocity than Conduit 3. The pollution pattern in the underground river system suggests intermittent leakage of AMD pollutants, leading to periodic water quality responses upon contaminant release. In contrast to the rapid attenuation of the conservative dye tracers, AMD pollutants exhibited slower and more persistent attenuation processes. The rates and extents of contaminant attenuation varied among the conduits, depending on the degree of conduit development. Sulfate (SO₄²⁻), a characteristic pollutant of AMD, showed the fastest attenuation rate, while several heavy metal elements displayed negative attenuation rates, indicating secondary pollution during transport , potentially related to adsorption-desorption processes with sediments. The storage and release of contaminants, driven by hydraulic gradient changes between karst conduits and fracture media, were found to delay the natural attenuation of pollutants, suggesting potential limitations in the long-term natural attenuation capacity of the underground river system. This study enhances the understanding of contamination processes and the mechanisms of water quality change and natural attenuation in vulnerable karst groundwater systems, contributing to the management and prevention of groundwater pollution in karst environments.

How to cite: Ji, H., Huang, K., Luo, M., Chiogna, G., and Richieri, B.: Identification of hydrologic response and contaminant transport processes in karst underground river systems using acid mine drainage and artificial dye tracer , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9094, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9094, 2025.

The Austrian Alpine Foreland Basin (AAFB) is home to a large population and an important industry location. The subsurface of the AAFB is intensively used since decades for drinking, energy (hydrocarbons and geothermal energy) and balneology purposes. Deeper groundwater systems in the Malmian and in the Oligocene Formations are utilised for geothermal energy and balneology. Groundwaters from shallow sedimentary strata are used for domestic and industrial water supply. In addition, hydrocarbon production is conducted since several decades in this area. To appose these individual interests and to secure a sustainable usage of the resources, the understanding of the basin history, the hydrostratigraphic ages and their interactions are crucial.

Major ion chemistry, δ2H-18O, and 87Sr/86-ratios suggest the Malmian thermal waters to be a mixture of meteoric Na-HCO3-waters with depleted δ18O-values <-11.5‰ with NaCl-brines (δ18O-values >-4.5‰) and a small fraction of young  CaMg-HCO3-waters.

81Kr investigations on ten deep groundwater samples (including 1 from Germany) from different hydrostratigraphic units of the Austrian Alpine Foreland Basin (AAFB) imply a differentiated picture of the groundwater residence times.

Exceptional high 81Kr-model-ages of deep Malmian thermal groundwater samples (around 500’000 years) would suggest extremely low velocities (incl. the cross formation flow) which contradict the existing hydrogeological model concepts of a dynamic thermal water flow in the Malmian reservoir.

Very old deep groundwater portions (> 900’000 years) are visible in an Eocene formation sample (Gallspach) whereas samples from younger strata (Oligocene) exhibit the youngest 81Kr- model-ages  (< 25’000-240’000 years) [1,2].

The discrepancy between the derived 81Kr-model-ages of the deep Malmian thermal groundwaters is difficult to reconcile with the most recent numeric thermal-water-model based on a recharge area “Tertiäres Hügelland” (SE of Regensburg) only 100 km northwest of the main users [3]. Possible explanations include diffusion processes in contact areas between the aquifers with the aquicludes or mixing with 81Kr-free Cenozoic formation waters and the presence of hydrocarbons within the aquifer that could influence the 81Kr-model-ages.

The very old age of the dominating thermal Na-HCO3-water-component is supported by 3He/4He-ratios and 4He-contents saturated with a purely crustal helium-ratio and content. The exchange of the Malmian thermal water with its aquifers during his pathway is shown by radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr-ratios (0.7098-0.7108) and elevated F, Li and Rb-concentrations.

 

  • Heidinger, M., F. Eichinger, R. Purtschert, P. Mueller, G. Wirsing, T. Geyer, T. Fritzer, and D. Groß (2019): Altersbestimmung an thermalen Tiefenwässern im Oberjura des Molasse-beckens mittels Krypton-Isotopen. In: Grundwasser, 24, 287-294.
  • Groß, D., Götzl, G., Kriegl, C., Heidinger, M., Kralik, M., Sachsenhofer, R.F., Goldbrunner, J., Hartl, I., Pytlak, L., Gusterhuber, J., Fölserl, V. & Irrgeher, J. (2022): Research Project: Deep Groundwater Systems in Upper Austria. Unpubl. Report, 81 p., Austrian Academy of Science, Vienna.
  • Expertengruppe Thermalwasser (2024): Das Thermalwasservorkommen im niederbayerischen -oberösterreichischen Molassebecken: Hydrogeologisches Modell und numerisches Thermal-wassermodell - Kurzbericht. 67 p., Land Oberösterreich. (https://www.landober-oesterreich.gv.at/files/publikationen/w_thermalwasser_bayern_ooe.pdf)

How to cite: Kralik, M. and Heidinger, M.: Dating (81Kr) and 18O-87Sr-isotopes support mixing of deep thermal groundwater in the Austrian Alpine Foreland Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9182, 2025.

EGU25-12145 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.10

Assessments of Groundwater Circulation and Recharge Paleotemperature in the Açu Aquifer, Northeastern Brazil 

Natália Arruda, Didier Gastmans, Hannah Eckert, Bertram Graf von Reventlow, Edith Engelhardt, Werner Aeschbach, José Guilherme Filgueira, Gabriel Ferreira, Nicolas Quintan Bernardo, and Zulene Almada Teixeira

The Potiguar Basin is a passive margin sedimentary basin formed during the breakup of Africa and South America. It encompasses important onshore oil reservoirs which have been exploited since the 1970s. It is located in the Atlantic Septentrional margin in the semi-arid region of Northeastern Brazil. The hydrogeological framework of the Potiguar Basin includes two main reservoirs: the karst Jandaíra Aquifer and the porous Açu Aquifer. The latter is the most significant aquifer in the region, responsible for supplying water to the population and for fruit production irrigation. Nowadays exhaustive drilling and groundwater extraction have led to a decrease in the water table posing problems for water resources sustainability in this semi-arid region. Despite the increasing demand of groundwater in the last decades, the Açu Aquifer has not been properly studied regarding groundwater flow, isotopic, and hydrochemical groundwater evolution. The semi-confined Açu Aquifer is bounded by the Potiguar basin, at the contact with the overlying carbonate platform, the Jandaíra Aquifer, which confines the Açu Aquifer across the entire platform toward the offshore areas. From the outcrop area, groundwater flows preferentially in the SW to NE direction influenced by the geological and structural framework of the basin. Aiming at a better understanding of groundwater flow and paleorecharge temperatures in the Açu Aquifer, environmental isotopes (H, O, and C) and noble gases were measured. Groundwater isotopic signatures values were found to be more depleted than those of precipitation (<-3.5‰ for δ¹⁸O and -10‰ for δ²H in groundwater, and up to -2.0‰ for δ¹⁸O and close to 0 ‰ for δ²H in precipitation). The age tracer C-14 indicates that young groundwater (close to 100 pMC) is present in the outcrop area and that very old groundwater is present at the deepest zones of the basin, where the C-14 concentration was near the detection limit of the method (0.3 pMC). In addition, the noble gas concentrations also suggest colder climate conditions during recharge. Our first results yield temperatures up to 8ºC below the modern mean annual temperature, in agreement with previously paleoclimate temperature studies in the region. The high excess air values ​​from older deep waters indicate a larger fluctuation of the water table level. These preliminary results suggest that the recharge of the Açu Aquifer took place under colder climate conditions, in possible association with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Even though the groundwater residence time was not precisely determined, it is expected to be over 40k years. Our results are consistent with previous studies that point to changes in temperature since the LGM for the Northeastern Brazil climate. Although further sampling and more precise data analysis are needed, these initial findings highlight the complexity of groundwater flow in the Açu Aquifer, and the importance of effective groundwater management to ensure the sustainability of the resource.

How to cite: Arruda, N., Gastmans, D., Eckert, H., von Reventlow, B. G., Engelhardt, E., Aeschbach, W., Filgueira, J. G., Ferreira, G., Bernardo, N. Q., and Teixeira, Z. A.: Assessments of Groundwater Circulation and Recharge Paleotemperature in the Açu Aquifer, Northeastern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12145, 2025.

EGU25-13074 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Leaching patterns of organic pollutants in agricultural fields 

Shulamit Nussboim, Lea Wittenberg, Elazar Volk, and Felicia Orah Rein

Organic pollutants, including pesticides and pharmaceuticals from irrigation with treated effluents, drift to the environment, risking habitats and organisms. Where nutrient behavior is predictable, organic pollutants include hundreds of molecules, and predicting their environmental fate is not obvious. Some research investigated tenth or hundreds of pesticides; however, the authors' discussion focused on the most frequently detected compounds, neglecting the latent information in the distribution of uncommon and low-concentration compounds.  Other research has focused on specific compound leaching or environmental fate. This research aims to develop fundamental principles for understanding and organizing knowledge related to the fate and transport of a large number of organic compounds in the environment, supported by field observations.

The current study was conducted in two fields on the Kishon Stream banks, a coastal stream in Israel. Field areas are characterized by heavy soils and high groundwater tables. A subsurface tile drainage system was installed to reduce water levels. This system provided easy access to the subsurface. Together with piezometers, it provided easy investigation of surface-subsurface-groundwater continuum interactions. 

Groundwater time series were collected before, during, and after the storm from the shallow piezometers (5 m). The time interval between samples was 2-3 days to closely track the pollutants leaching. Subsurface and surface water were collected during the storm. Visual classification of time series together with clustering methods could distinguish different leaching processes and governing factors involved. A linear fit was applied to obtain correlated processes and concentrations regarding all detected compounds in any two samples.

Groundwater time series displayed four patterns for most compounds. Very mobile or low-mobility compounds exhibited decreasing concentrations at the storm start. Low-intermediate mobility compounds and legacy pollutants exhibited a concentration rise. All compounds were diluted in the storm peak. Post-storm peak concentrations in the groundwater were correlated with the subsurface.

The linear fit of groundwater on the second day to the subsurface water was insignificant. However, the best fit was detected on the fifth day, after the storm peak, demonstrating the subsurface pollutants retardation after the storm peak. Dendrogram distinguished pre-storm samples and post-storm samples, relating post-storm concentrations to storm peak. We propose to attribute the pre-storm water to old soil water leaching resulting in low-intermediate pollutants leaching involved in adsorption-desorption processes in soil water. After the storm peak, we expect the leaching of pollutants washed from the upper soil layer; in a case, their mobility is significant enough. Very immobile compounds did not emerge after the storm, nor very mobile, which are not expected to occupy the soil column. The current study takes the advantage of many compounds to define patterns and rules that can explain the transport processes regarding the governing factors: mobility, environmental concentration, and timing in the storm.

How to cite: Nussboim, S., Wittenberg, L., Volk, E., and Rein, F. O.: Leaching patterns of organic pollutants in agricultural fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13074, 2025.

EGU25-17554 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Hydrochemical and Isotopic Characterization of Groundwater in the Metaponto Coastal Aquifer, Italy 

Jaswant Singh, Maurizio Polemio, and Livia Emanuela Zuffianò

The increasing reliance on groundwater resources and the widespread occurrence of seawater intrusion in coastal regions demand an integrated approach to characterize and manage these aquifers. In this study, a multi-tracer methodology combined with hydrochemical modeling was employed to investigate the hydrogeological dynamics of the Metaponto coastal aquifer in southern Italy. Groundwater age dating was achieved using tritium (3H) and radiocarbon (14C) isotopes, complemented by stable isotope signatures (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) to trace recharge processes, flow paths, and mixing dynamics.

Hydrogeochemical analyses, including major ions (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻) and minor constituents (e.g., Al, As, B, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Li, Mn, Mo, Ni, Sr, U, Zn), were conducted to characterize the aquifer's chemical signature and identify processes such as seawater intrusion, cation exchange, and anthropogenic influence. Environmental isotopes of hydrogen (δ²H), oxygen (δ¹⁸O), and carbon (δ¹³C) were also utilized to trace groundwater origin, evaluate recharge mechanisms, and identify geochemical reactions. To simulate groundwater flow and assess the impact of density-driven processes, the MODFLOW/SEAWAT code was utilized. This coupled flow and transport model provided insights into the movement of freshwater and saltwater within the aquifer system, enabling the refinement of the conceptual hydrogeological model.

The results reveal the complex interplay between freshwater recharge and seawater intrusion, emphasizing the role of geochemical interactions and flow dynamics in shaping the aquifer's characteristics. This integrated approach has proven effective in enhancing the understanding of coastal aquifers and highlights the critical need for such methodologies in managing groundwater resources under increasing anthropogenic and climate pressures.

This work was supported by the ENI-CNR joint Research Center “Water - Hypatia of Alexandria” (Metaponto, Italy).

 

Keywords: Coastal aquifer, Seawater intrusion, Multi-tracer approach, Hydrochemical analysis, Environmental isotopes

How to cite: Singh, J., Polemio, M., and Zuffianò, L. E.: Hydrochemical and Isotopic Characterization of Groundwater in the Metaponto Coastal Aquifer, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17554, 2025.

EGU25-17720 | ECS | Orals | HS8.2.10

Field sampling, sample preparation and measurement of radio-sulfur in natural water samples 

Stephen Wangari, Astrid Harjung, Daniela Machado, Bradley McGuire, Michael Schubert, Juergen Kopitz, Mang Lin, Lorenzo Copia, and Richard Bibby

Research on groundwater residence times is crucial for assessing groundwater infiltration rates and aquifer vulnerabilities, both playing a vital role in sustainable water resource management. This study aimed at advancing the use of the short-lived cosmogenic radionuclide 35S (“radio-sulfur”, t1/2 = 87.4 d) for determining groundwater residence times of less than one year. The results show that 35S provides a valuable tool for evaluating groundwater residence times, infiltration rates, and aquifer vulnerabilities. The preconcentration of 35SO42- using an anion exchange resin prior to Liquid Scintillation Counting (LSC) is a technique designed to improve the detection of 35S in groundwater and precipitation samples. Our optimized method involves a custom setup where up to 500 mg of SO42- can be extracted from a large-volume water sample in less than an hour by passing the sample through a column pre-packed with an ion exchange resin. The retained sulfate ions are then eluted and the eluate is subsequently concentrated by evaporating excess water, while ensuring the elimination of organic compounds resulting in the formation of a clear, colorless sample. Once all colored compounds are removed, the sample is mixed with a scintillation cocktail and analyzed using LSC. The SO42 preconcentration procedure has been adapted for application directly in the field and eliminates therefore the need to transport large volumes of water sample to the laboratory and addresses logistical challenges associated with shipping and storage. Furthermore, we explored various LSC optimization methods for the detection and quantification of 35S in natural water samples resulting in improvements of both background and efficiency during LSC measurement. This work represents advancements in the utilization of radio-sulfur analysis, thereby expanding the suite of natural radionuclides to constrain water residence time distributions in terrestrial waters.

How to cite: Wangari, S., Harjung, A., Machado, D., McGuire, B., Schubert, M., Kopitz, J., Lin, M., Copia, L., and Bibby, R.: Field sampling, sample preparation and measurement of radio-sulfur in natural water samples, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17720, 2025.

EGU25-19345 | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

The WITS software toolbox – Water Isotope modelling for Transit time and Storage 

Stefanie Lutz, Julien Farlin, Alicia Correa, Sascha Mueller, and Michael Stockinger

In recent years, there has been a significant shift in the modelling approaches used for estimating transit times in hydrological systems. While classical lumped parameter models (LPM) have long been the standard, StorAge Selection functions (SAS-functions) have gained considerable popularity. However, a tool facilitating the use and comparison of both approaches is still lacking.

The WITS toolbox, developed as part of the COST Action WATSON, offers a unique opportunity to explore and compare both methodologies. WITS is an R-based software tool catering to both experienced researchers and newcomers to the field of transit-time modelling. It allows estimating storage volumes and dynamics, and transit times in various systems, including lysimeters, groundwater and catchments through the application of input-output modelling with environmental tracers (i.e., tritium, deuterium, and oxygen-18).

WITS includes a comprehensive manual guiding through the software's functionalities and modelling processes and comes with multiple case studies that demonstrate practical applications of the software in different hydrological settings.

WITS allows users to explore and compare transit-time methodologies, advancing research in hydrology and fostering a deeper understanding of water system behaviors.

How to cite: Lutz, S., Farlin, J., Correa, A., Mueller, S., and Stockinger, M.: The WITS software toolbox – Water Isotope modelling for Transit time and Storage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19345, 2025.

EGU25-19952 | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

The relationship between water transit time and geomorpholoy in PinLin 

YanXi Chen, Jr Chuan Huang, Jun Yi Lee, and Jui Ping Chen

The passage of water through a watershed implies the residence time of water within the system that closely related to water resource recharge, the rate of chemical weathering, the speed of pollutant degradation, or agricultural practices. Currently, the evaluation of transit time requires a combination of sampling data and model calculations. However, the models cannot be finely adjusted for different influencing factors, and the input data relies on on-site sampling.This study selected 19 sub-watersheds in Pinglin area of Taiwan to collect stable isotope data for transit time modeling. Storage selection model was used to calculate the transit time, and regression methods were then employed to assess the relationship between watershed transit time and various geomorphic indices. In study period 2013 to 2015, result indicated that the mean transit time of discharge 19 outlet range from 240 to 508 days, and young water fraction account for 10% to 23%, close to the value of other headwater chatchment in northen Taiwan. Area, flowpath length, and high above the nearest drainage (HAND) geomorphic indices were calculates, range from 1.09 to 196 km2, 57.5 to 68.3m respectively, and the area proportion of the relief from nearest drainage under 5m range can up to 6.6%.

How to cite: Chen, Y., Huang, J. C., Lee, J. Y., and Chen, J. P.: The relationship between water transit time and geomorpholoy in PinLin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19952, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19952, 2025.

EGU25-19969 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Predicting Residence Times in Stream-Aquifer Systems with XGBoost Machine Learning Algorithm 

Uğur Boyraz and Hayri Baycan

Groundwater residence times are key to unraveling the complex dynamics of aquifers, providing insights into their hydrological processes and contaminant transport mechanisms. Hyporheic flow, as an integral component of surface water-groundwater interactions, causes the exchange of substances between surface water and groundwater, enabling pollutants to migrate into aquifers, travel within them, and eventually return to surface water. Groundwater residence time in such systems plays a vital role in developing strategies to protect water resources and promote their sustainable use. In the literature, various analytical and numerical models have been applied to estimate residence time. In addition to these approaches, advancements in technology have introduced artificial intelligence and machine learning methods as valuable tools for determining residence time. The performance of different algorithms in calculating residence time may vary depending on the complexity and specific characteristics of the model. Therefore, investigating the performance of machine learning methods in this context is essential. This study aims to predict the travel times of particles to a stream within a stream-aquifer system using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm. The datasets used in the study were prepared based on a previously developed mathematical model for the system. The velocity vectors derived from the mathematical model were employed to calculate the travel times of particles to the stream. To train the machine learning model and estimate residence time, six parameters affecting travel time were analyzed: hydraulic conductivity (K), stream slope (S), aquifer length (Ly), aquifer width (Lx), and the x and y coordinates of the particles. During model development, random scenarios were generated to create training data. Feature engineering was applied to improve model accuracy, incorporating derived parameters such as “Ly×S” and replacing the x and y coordinates with more meaningful features like the “y/x” ratio. The results demonstrated that hydraulic conductivity and the “Ly×S” parameter had the most significant impact on travel times. Higher hydraulic conductivity reduced travel time, while the influence of stream slope was more pronounced at higher slope levels. An increase in Ly shortened travel times, whereas an increase in Lx increased them. Additionally, the initial positions of the particles and their distances to the stream were found to have a significant impact on the model's performance in predicting travel times. The model’s performance was evaluated using error metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), achieving high accuracy. The findings indicate that particle travel times to the stream can be effectively predicted using the XGBoost model. This study provides a practical and efficient model that can be utilized for managing stream-aquifer systems and analyzing pollutant transport. The results contribute to the determination of residence time dynamics in stream-aquifer interactions and provide a foundation for future studies.

How to cite: Boyraz, U. and Baycan, H.: Predicting Residence Times in Stream-Aquifer Systems with XGBoost Machine Learning Algorithm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19969, 2025.

EGU25-20131 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.2.10

Characterization of groundwater flux and direction using Active-Distributed Temperature Sensing 

Luca Varisano, Nataline Simon, and Serge Brouyère

In heterogeneous aquifers, accurately characterizing groundwater flux and direction is crucial for predicting contaminant transport. Among emerging methods, Active-Distributed Temperature Sensing (Active-DTS) has proven to be highly effective for estimating groundwater fluxes at high spatial resolution in porous media. Active-DTS measurements involve heating a Fiber Optic (FO) cable and monitoring the associated temperature response. The temperature elevation measured along the heated section directly depends on the groundwater flux in the aquifer, with higher flux resulting in lower temperature elevation and faster temperature stabilization.

While this method is particularly effective in unconsolidated porous media, its application in consolidated aquifers is limited. In such cases, the heated fiber optic cable must be installed outside the piezometer within the gravel filter. As it has been already studied, the presence of any piezometer induces the distortion of the natural groundwater flow field in its vicinity. In this configuration, the temperature increase measured during Active-DTS measurements is highly dependent on the position of the FO cable relative to the flow direction. This means that the FO cable must be aligned with the natural flow streamlines for the measurements to accurately represent the actual groundwater flux. Unfortunately, the effective position of the FO cable is often unknown, introducing significant uncertainties in groundwater flux estimates.


To address these limitations, we propose an innovative approach for estimating groundwater flow direction and flow within consolidated aquifers. This novel setup involves the vertical deployment of multiple heatable FO cables in the gravel filter surrounding the piezometer.


First numerical modelling indicates that this approach is promising for estimating groundwater flow direction. This configuration allows for the sequential heating of individual FO cables while tracking the displacement of the resulting heat plume using the other cables. By repeating this process, the groundwater flow direction can be determined. The presence of multiple heated FO cables facilitates the estimation of flux at various locations within the gravel filter, providing insights into the groundwater flow distortion and flux within the aquifer.

How to cite: Varisano, L., Simon, N., and Brouyère, S.: Characterization of groundwater flux and direction using Active-Distributed Temperature Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20131, 2025.

EGU25-20793 | Orals | HS8.2.10

A review of tritium radioisotope in Fukushima waters, Japan 

Maksym Gusyev, Alexandre Cauquoin, Shigekazu Hirao, and Naofumi Akata

Tritium radioisotope (H-3 or T) with a half-life of 12.32 years was released to the atmosphere in the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident prompting tritium monitoring efforts in Fukushima waters. Tritium in precipitation has been measured monthly from 2012 accumulating a decade-long record in Namie Town [1] and the Fukushima Prefectural Government sampled river, lakes, dam reservoir, and coastal sites twice per year for direct tritium measurements [2]. Since the FDNPP anthropogenic tritium was measured at several coastal sites influencing natural background tritium, which is a cosmogenic radionuclide traced as a water molecule (HTO), a combined time-series of both anthropogenic and natural tritium in precipitation was required for the transit times interpretation using the atmospheric FDNPP release tritium simulation [3]. In October 2023, tritium measurements at several Fukushima city headwater catchments indicated natural background levels and tritium-tracer was useful for estimating water transit times and volume in the subsurface [4]. While tritium is a useful tracer to estimate water transit times in Fukushima, the continuation of tritium monitoring is needed to disentangle natural levels with the ongoing tritium-related FDNPP activities such as the tritiated water discharge from the FDNPP site. 

 

References: 
[1] Yamada R., Hasegawa, H., Akata, N., et al. (2024) Temporal variation of tritium concentration in monthly precipitation collected at a Difficult-to-Return Zone in Namie Town, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research (5): 7818–7827. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31652-9
[2] Fukushima Revitalization Portal Site (2024). https://www.pref.fukushima.lg.jp/site/portal/
[3] Gusyev, M., Cauquoin, A., Igarashi, Y., et al. (2024) Anthropogenic and natural tritium radioisotope in terrestrial water cycle of Fukushima, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, EGU24-17332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17332.
[4] Cauquoin, A., Gusyev, M., et al. (2025) Modeling tritium release to the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and application to estimating post-accident water system transit times, Japan, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-35919-1

 

How to cite: Gusyev, M., Cauquoin, A., Hirao, S., and Akata, N.: A review of tritium radioisotope in Fukushima waters, Japan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20793, 2025.

HS8.3 – Subsurface hydrology – Vadose zone hydrology

EGU25-1038 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.1

Thawing mechanism of frozen loess soil based on a nuclear magnetic resonance study 

Zheng Wang, Chi Zhang, Yaning Zhang, and Bingxi Li

Permafrost thawing is a common natural phenomenon in cold regions, where it has significant impacts on ecosystem stability and the sustainability of human society. This study elucidates the melting process of frozen soil and the importance of water content during the thawing process at the pore scale based on nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) investigations. Additionally, thermodynamic theory is applied to interpret the link between the pore ice melting process and the NMR T2 relaxation signals. The NMR signal intensity has been used to estimate the thawing degree of frozen soil, however, the mechanism underlying the shift in the T2 signal peak has not been revealed. In this study, a pre-freezing thawing experimental platform was established to capture pore-scale characteristic thawing (temp gradient -30oC, -20oC, -15oC, -10oC, -5oC, -3oC, -2oC, -1oC, 0oC, 1oC, 5oC, 15oC) of four different loess soil samples with various saturation levels ranging from 25% to 100%. The results show that the T2 distribution clearly demonstrates three distinct thawing mechanisms in frozen soil thawing: (1) surface water melting corresponds to an increase in the T2 peak amplitude; (2) bulk water melting corresponds to a broadening of the T2 peak; (3) pore water migration from large pores to small pores corresponds to a shift in the T2 peak. Furthermore, measurements from unsaturated samples (25%, 50%, 85% saturation) provide insights into the importance of water content in the thawing process. Collectively, our method for interpreting thawing behaviors of soil provides a non-invasive and high-resolution method to understanding the dynamic soil-water behaviors in cold regions and can further help establish advanced freeze-thaw induced landslides monitoring framework.
Keywords frozen soil; pore ice; melting mechanism; nuclear magnetic resonance; loess

How to cite: Wang, Z., Zhang, C., Zhang, Y., and Li, B.: Thawing mechanism of frozen loess soil based on a nuclear magnetic resonance study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1038, 2025.

The Yellow River Delta, with shallow groundwater levels, is a vital land reserve in Eastern China. However, high groundwater salinity limits soil remediation and crop growth, necessitating effective management. While shallow groundwater contributes significantly to global vegetation transpiration (~23%), its role in saline areas remains unclear. This study introduces the Groundwater Advantage Zone (GWAZ) concept to optimize groundwater use. Through field monitoring, lab experiments, model simulations, and water isotope analysis, the research aims to: 1) Identify critical water table depths by examining spatial and temporal patterns influenced by soil, climate, and regional factors; 2) Study water and salt stress on crops, focusing on root water uptake under salinity stress and groundwater subsidence; 3) Simulate soil water and salt dynamics to quantify the GWAZ as a new index; and 4) Use the GWAZ index to optimize water tables for salinity control and groundwater use. The findings offer strategies for sustainable soil and water management, supporting agricultural development in the Yellow River Delta and similar regions.

How to cite: Zhao, Y.: Mechanisms and Synergetic Technologies for Groundwater Advantage Zone in Saline Farmland of the Yellow River Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2608, 2025.

EGU25-3211 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Effects of Melting and Refreezing Ice in Unsaturated Soils on Groundwater Recharge 

Anne Hermann, Reinhard Drews, and Olaf Cirpka

Groundwater recharge in mountainous regions is predominantly driven by snowmelt. However, shifting precipitation patterns and changes in freeze-thaw cycles due to climate change alter hydrological processes. To better understand the influence of ice dynamics in seasonally frozen soils on groundwater recharge, we evaluate two numerical models that include ice formation and melting within the soil. Specifically, we aim to quantify the partitioning of rain- and meltwater into lateral runoff and vertical infiltration.

We focus on the models PermaFOAM and PFLOTRAN, which both solve the Richards equation for unsaturated flow coupled to heat transfer equations, while using different approaches to account for ice buildup in the pore space. We apply the two models to a simplified two-dimensional hillslope cross-section, analyzing how these formulations influence hydraulic conductivity and lateral flow generation in seasonally frozen soils.  

As a next step, we plan to integrate a snowpack as a porous medium into the vadose-zone model framework, enabling a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between snowmelt, soil freezing, and preferential water flow. Our goal is to improve the understanding of water flow dynamics under transient freeze-thaw conditions in soils and overlying snowpacks. By integrating snowmelt processes into hydrological models, we aim to improve the accuracy of groundwater recharge projections in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Hermann, A., Drews, R., and Cirpka, O.: Effects of Melting and Refreezing Ice in Unsaturated Soils on Groundwater Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3211, 2025.

We tested three expressions for the unsaturated soil hydraulic conductivity curve (UHCC): Kosugi’s model (KGV), an additive model (ADV), and a junction model (JUV).  KGV generalizes the Mualem-van Genuchten model and assumes that all liquid soil water flows through capillaries.  ADV adds the hydraulic conductivity of water films adsorbed onto the solid surface to the conductivity of the capillaries. The recently introduced JUV has a junction matric potential at which a wet branch with a capillary conductivity function joins a dry branch with a film conductivity function. All models assume water vapor flow is driven by diffusion. We fitted the three models to hydraulic conductivity measurements for a sandy loam, a silt, and a loamy sand. Akaike’s Information Criterion suggested potential overparameterization in ADV, which has up to seven fitting parameters, whereas KGV and JUV have up to six. From the fitted curves, we generated look-up tables that were then used as input for the Hydrus-1D model for soil water flow.

We evaluated the functional performance of the three models by numerically modeling unsaturated flow in uniform vegetated columns of the three soils exposed to 10 years of generated weather records that represent three climates (monsoon, temperate, and semi-arid). The surface flux, transpiration, and bottom boundary flux were aggregated over 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day time windows, and their extremes and seasonal fluctuations were evaluated. JUV and KGV converged for all nine combinations of soil and climate, while ADV crashed three times, particularly for the sandy loam. In addition to the robustness of the three UHCC models, the presentation will highlight how the calculated fluxes and water balances agree or differ between the models.

How to cite: Nambiar, A. and de Rooij, G. H.: Evaluating Unsaturated Hydraulic Conductivity Models for Diverse Soils and Climates: A Functional Comparison of Additive, Junction, and Kosugi Parameterizations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4286, 2025.

Soil moisture plays a critical role in the growth process of rice, directly influencing crop growth and yield. This study focuses on how meteorological factors (net radiation, air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) and plant factors (crop coefficient) impact the daily depletion of soil moisture across different growth periods of rice. The research is based on observational data from the second rice cropping season, 2023, in Guanyin District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan. A multiple linear regression model was developed to incorporate plant and meteorological factors and their influences on soil moisture at various depths. Additionally, a one-dimensional heat conduction model was utilized to analyze the interactions within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) system. The results indicate that rice roots significantly impact the daily depletion of soil moisture at a depth of 20 cm. In comparison, the influence of meteorological factors stabilizes at depths of 30 to 40 cm. By integrating soil moisture data with meteorological and plant factors, this study compared the estimated thermal diffusivity and damping depth using a multiple linear regression model with values derived from in-situ soil temperature observations. The results show consistency, further validating the model's accuracy in assessing the influence of meteorological factors at various depths. This conceptual model improves the understanding of soil moisture, plant, and atmosphere interactions in rice growth. It also provides a robust scientific basis for estimating the daily depletion of soil moisture using plant and meteorological factors, which informs the optimization of water resource management and irrigation strategies customized to different growth periods. This research aims to enhance irrigation water use efficiency by providing dynamic changes in soil moisture, contributing to better water resource management and sustainability in rice agriculture.

Keywords : Soil Moisture; Multiple Linear Regression Models; One-Dimensional Heat Conduction Model; Depth Effects; Rice Growth

How to cite: Chang, Y.-T., Chen, P.-Y., and Chen, C.-C.: Establishing a Multiple Linear Regression Model Relating the Meteorological and Plant Factors to Soil Moisture at Various Depths, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5317, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5317, 2025.

Various studies have investigated the effects of grazing on soil hydraulic properties (SHPs) under different soil and environmental conditions, and grazing management practices, across different regions of the world. However, despite a relatively large body of research on this topic, the overall influence of grazing on SHPs across diverse contexts remains ambiguous due to the complex interplay of factors that moderate these effects. This study adopts a multi-level meta-analytic model to systematically collate and analyse global field data, obtained from the literature (comprising 74 papers), to investigate the magnitude of changes in SHP as influenced by grazing, moderated by 17 factors relating to management (grazing intensity, duration, strategy, livestock type, rooting depth), climate, and intrinsic soil physical properties (texture, clay content, clay type fraction and related mechanical properties). The moderating factors were obtained from details reported in the publications, as well as from independent globally distributed databases (the clay property database by Ito and Wagai (2017), with clay mechanical properties derived from equations provided in Lehmann et al. (2021)); the WorldClim 2.1 dataset (Fick and Hijmans, 2017) for mean annual rainfall and temperatures; germplasm databases for individual species listed in the publications to obtain rooting depth). Our findings showed that grazing significantly affects soil structure, causing decreased saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ksat (56%), mean infiltration rates, MIR (38%), and macroporosity, MP (10%), and an increase in bulk density, BD (28%). The meta-analysis reveals that the impact of grazing on SHPs is significantly greater under heavy grazing (for MIR, BD), long-term grazing (Ksat, BD), in areas dominated by shallow-rooted pasture compared to mixed or deep-rooted systems (BD, MP), and in cattle dominated grazing systems as opposed to sheep or mixed grazing systems (Ksat, BD, MP). Additionally, the negative effects of grazing increase with increases in mean annual precipitation (all SHP) and temperature (all, but not BD). It is also notable that clay type properties, specifically derived mechanical properties, also showed significant relationships with grazing effects, across all SHPs. The findings suggest that future research should be focused on the long-term effects of cattle grazing on soils with large fractions of active to moderately active clay types in climates with high precipitation to help develop grazing management and planting strategies that support sustainable grazing while mitigating negative soil hydrological impacts.

Fick and Hijmans (2017), DOI: 10.1002/joc.5086; Ito and Wagai (2017), DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.103; Lehmann et al. (2021), DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095311

How to cite: Wang, Y., Bishop, J., Verhoef, A., and Hammond, J.: A multi-level meta-analysis on the effects of grazing on soil hydraulic properties under variable grazing management, climate and clay properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6222, 2025.

EGU25-7340 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Ecologically Driven Alteration of Soil Hydraulic Properties through mono-culture Reforestation in Central Chile 

Matthew Tippett-Vannini and John Selker

Soil hydraulic properties (SHP) are among the indicators of the diversity and health of an 
ecosystem and are commonly measured by two criteria: infiltration and water retention capacity. 
This may be seen as an “Ecological Alteration,” resulting from the sum biological and non
biological processes which modify the structure of the soil, including bioturbation and the 
accumulation of organic matter. These changes in soil structure drive the changes in SHP.  


Central Chile has seen an abrupt and extensive land use/land cover transition from several 
hundred years of wheat cultivation (annually tilled) to short rotation (~25-30 yr) silviculture. 
This allows for neighboring assessment of soil impacts of transitioning from cultivated to 
uncultivated production as a function of time. Further, the region’s climate geography (a North
South primary axis) allows us to view the soil health impacts of this change in planting along a 
precipitation gradient (850 – 1700 mm/yr) to help tease-out the impact of climate on temporal 
dynamics of soil properties.  


We measured infiltration in five recently transitioned first rotation locations along this 
precipitation gradient. Sampling plots were established for continuous wheat, early-, mid-, and 
late-stage pine plantations, and Chilean Native Forest. We sampled in both the dry summer 
months and again in the wet winter months. In the dry sampling period, we found transitions 
from wheat to silviculture saw an initial decrease in infiltration; however, over time (~30 years) 
infiltration in the plantations approached that of the Native Forest (increasing approximately by 
an order of magnitude in 30 years). In the wet sampling period, the results were more 
inconclusive. Some plots did not show an increase in infiltration capacity while others showed a 
gradual increase over the same 30-year period. 

How to cite: Tippett-Vannini, M. and Selker, J.: Ecologically Driven Alteration of Soil Hydraulic Properties through mono-culture Reforestation in Central Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7340, 2025.

EGU25-8945 | Orals | HS8.3.1

Application of a bimodal physically-based pedotransfer function with a user-friendly spreadsheet 

Shawkat Basel Mostafa Hassan, Alessandro Comegna, Giovanna Dragonetti, and Antonio Coppola

Soil hydraulic properties, SHP, are crucial to simulate water movement in agro-environmental systems. However, directly measuring SHP at large scales is time-consuming and costly. As an alternative to direct measurements, pedotransfer functions, PTF, can estimate SHP from other easily-measurable soil physical properties. Many PTFs were developed in the literature but the majority are empirical and rely on the textural information to obtain the hydraulic properties without accounting for the soil structure, which plays a significant role in the hydraulic conductivity. Recently, a new physically-based PTF was developed, called bimAP. It is a bimodal extension to the unimodal physically-based Arya-Paris PTF, unimAP, by explicitly accounting for the aggregate-size distributions to predict the bimodal SHP, improving the ability to reproduce the spatial variability of SHP. Saturated hydraulic conductivity, K0, is then calculated by applying Kozeny-Carman model, whose parameters are estimated from the upper part of the water retention curve, WRC, near saturation. To practically apply the bimAP PTF, a dynamic Excel spreadsheet is presented along with the instructions to use it. When introduced with the soil physical parameters and the scaling parameter, αAP, the spreadsheet can carry out the calculations to obtain the ratios of the macropores and the matrix to overall porosity, and hence, the bimodal WRC. The spreadsheet also includes the calibration of the αAP when the user introduces measured soil hydraulic parameters; using the Excel solver, the sum of square differences between the measured and estimated soil water contents can be minimized to calibrate αAP. Excel solver can then be used to fit the upper part of the resulting bimAP WRC by optimizing the Brooks-Corey water retention parameters, which are then used to calculate K0 by applying Kozeny-Carman model. Eventually, the entire bimAP WRC can be fitted by optimizing Durner water retention parameters also using the Excel solver. Estimating αAP, in the absence of measured SHP, is also possible from the soil physical parameters: particle-size distribution, aggregate-size distribution, dry bulk density, single-aggregate bulk density and the ratio of macropores to the overall porosity, by means of multiple linear regression. 

How to cite: Hassan, S. B. M., Comegna, A., Dragonetti, G., and Coppola, A.: Application of a bimodal physically-based pedotransfer function with a user-friendly spreadsheet, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8945, 2025.

EGU25-9008 | Orals | HS8.3.1

Evaluation of Saturo infiltrometer for determining field-saturated soil hydraulic conductivity  

Dario Autovino, Bagarello Vincenzo, Angelo Basile, Gaetano Caltabellotta, Roberto De Mascellis, Mariachiara Fusco, and Massimo Iovino

Pressure infiltrometer (PI) experiments are commonly applied for determination of field-saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, Ks, by the analysis of steady-state infiltration rate from within a single ring. Basically, two approaches can be used for determining Ks: the One-Ponding-Depth (OPD) approach, that uses a single depth of ponding and requires an a priori estimate of the α* parameter, and the Two-Ponding-Depth (TPD) approach, that allows simultaneous estimation of Ks and α*, the ratio between Ks and matric flux potential. Recently, SATURO infiltrometer (METER Group, Inc., USA) was developed as an automated version of the PI method. SATURO automatically calculates Ks by the TPD equations but its functioning presents some specific peculiarities. In particular, the higher pressure head on the soil surface is established before the lower one, and the steady-state infiltration rates required for TPD calculation are sampled after a soaking phase and one or more pressure cycles.

A field test of SATURO infiltrometer was conducted on two sandy-loam soils at Acerra (ACE) and Villabate (VIL) and a clay soil at Monreale (MON). A total of 55 automated SATURO experiments (12 at ACE, 25 at MON and 18 at VIL sites) were conducted and the results compared with those obtained from manual PI tests under comparable conditions in terms of ring diameter and depth of insertion and pressure head values.

Independently of the device (PI or SATURO), the TPD approach yielded Ks values that were not statistically different from those obtained by applying the OPD approach with site-specific α* values of 16, 5.2 and 9.6 m-1 for ACE, MON and VIL, respectively. When a first approximation literature value of α* = 12 m-1 was used, Ks calculated by the OPD approach was overestimated on average by 43.9% at MON site but much lower discrepancies were observed at the other two sites, thus confirming that this choice is not expected to introduce large uncertainties in the calculated Ks values.

At ACE, SATURO yielded a mean Ks value numerically similar (D = 4%) and not significantly different from the PI. At MON, the mean of Ks obtained with the PI was larger by 68% than that obtained with SATURO and the differences were statistically significant. At VIL, the mean of Ks obtained with the PI was significantly larger than that obtained with SATURO and the two means differed by 80%. According to the similarity criterion by Elrick and Reynolds (1992), this investigation suggested an acceptable agreement between the two methods given the means of Ks were statistically similar or differed by no more than 1.8 times.

Acknowledgement: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005) and the Ministero dell’Università e della Ricerca of Italy, project PRIN 2022 "Smart technologies and remote Sensing methods to support the sustainable agriculture WAter Management of Mediterranean woody Crops (SWAM4Crops)" CUP B53D23018040001.

How to cite: Autovino, D., Vincenzo, B., Basile, A., Caltabellotta, G., De Mascellis, R., Fusco, M., and Iovino, M.: Evaluation of Saturo infiltrometer for determining field-saturated soil hydraulic conductivity , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9008, 2025.

EGU25-11756 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Contrasting perspectives on soil evaporation in soil science and land surface modelling 

Jan De Pue, José Miguel Barrios, William Moutier, and Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs

Soil evaporation is an essential component of the hydrological cycle. Within soil science, the fundamental mechanisms involved in soil evaporation are well-documented. However, within the realm of land surface modelling, the coarse spatial resolution and limited available computational resources result in a simplified representation of this highly non-linear process.
Here, we evaluated the current representation of soil evaporation within the RMI evapotranspiration and surface turbulent fluxes (ET-STF) model applied in the frame of the EUMETSAT Satellite Applications Facility on support to Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF, http://lsa-saf.eumetsat.int/). We highlighted the discrepancies between the simplified representation of soil evaporation and the soil physical solution. To achieve this, synthetic experiments were performed using Hydrus as a reference for comparison with the LSA SAF ET-STF model. Additionally, a comparison was made with formulations in other land surface models (Surfex, ECLand & GLEAM), the resulting texture-dependent bias was demonstrated and impact of sub-grid heterogeneity was shown. Finally, an updated formulation was presented and evaluated using in situ observations.
Though widely recognised as one of the fundamental processes in the hydrological cycle, the perspective on soil evaporation is very different in soil physics compared to land surface modelling. Here, we attempted to harmonize both approaches in a pragmatic manner.

How to cite: De Pue, J., Barrios, J. M., Moutier, W., and Gellens-Meulenberghs, F.: Contrasting perspectives on soil evaporation in soil science and land surface modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11756, 2025.

EGU25-12090 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

A lab study to quantify the effect of fresh and degraded crop residues on soil hydraulic properties 

Frederic Leuther, Alina Langanki, and Efstathios Diamantopoulos

Mulching and incorporation of crop residues (CR) into soils is a common strategy to sustain soil carbon stocks and to regulate water losses via bare soil evaporation. To date, implementing the effect of mulching strategies into soil-plant- atmosphere models remain challenging due to limited information about their effect on hydraulic properties (HP), namely the water retention and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity curve and the temporal dynamics of the process.

In this laboratory study, we measured the HP of a loamy soil mixed with maize CR to different contents (0, 2, and 5 weight-%) and a mulch layer (100 weight-% CR) from saturation to oven dryness. We differentiated between leaves and roots CR and adapted the simplified evaporation method to measure the hydraulic properties of 100 % CR layer. The experiments run as triplicates and were repeated after three weeks of incubation under optimum condition  (30 °C, 90 % RH) to simulate organic matter degradation after harvest. Comparing the HP before and after incubation provided information about the temporal effect of CR on soil HP.  

Compared to the control, water retention was systematically increasing about 2 to 5 vol.-%  for the CR-soil mixtures and up to 50 vol.-%  for the 100 % CR samples over a broad suction range from pF 0 to pF 3. The effect was most pronounced for leaves. The unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of all CR-soil mixtures was not affected. In contrast, the 100 % CR samples provided measurements of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity around pF 1 which were by an order of magnitude lower compared to the CR-soil mixtures. Incubation of the samples significantly reduced the carbon content of the samples and changed the structure of the CR but surprisingly, a positive effect on the soil water retention curve was still measurable.

The study shows that the beneficial effect of CR incorporation on the soil HP of a loamy soil increases with the amount of CR and that the effect lasts for a period of at least one month after harvest. This period is crucial to define the starting condition of the following crop. In addition, the lower unsaturated hydraulic conductivity of a 100 % CR layer confirmed field observations where a mulch layer reduces water losses through bare soil evaporation.       

How to cite: Leuther, F., Langanki, A., and Diamantopoulos, E.: A lab study to quantify the effect of fresh and degraded crop residues on soil hydraulic properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12090, 2025.

EGU25-13946 | Orals | HS8.3.1

The influence of antecedent moisture content (AMC) on infiltration into water repellent soil: Laboratory experiments and model calculations 

Markus Berli, Rose M. Shillito, Dani Or, Jeremy Giovando, Jay Pak, Nawa Pradhan, Ian E. Floyd, and Sean McKenna

The sensitivity of infiltration rate to antecedent moisture content (AMC) in wettable soils is well-established with a low AMC promoting a higher initial infiltration rate. For water repellent soils, such as those found on fire-affected landscapes, we know little about how AMC may affect infiltration. Here we seek to understand how AMC affects infiltration for sub-critically water repellent soils (soils for which water forms a contact angle <90°). We conducted laboratory experiments using uniform #40-70 quartz sand with different degrees of water repellency from which we development a process-based model for simulating sorptivity and infiltration rate as a function of AMC. The experiments exhibited a highly non-linear relationship between contact angle and initial saturation degree (as a direct measure for AMC). We found the observed contact angle of water repellent sand was highest for air-dry conditions (as expected) but decreased rapidly with increasing initial saturation degree (AMC). Sorptivity of water repellent sand (which integrates wettability, pore sizes and AMC), exhibited a local minimum at the air-dry condition; a maximum for initial saturation degrees between 3% and 6%; then again a local minimum for initial saturation degree near 40%. Using the developed model along with measured contact angles and associated sorptivity values, maximum infiltrates were associated with an initial saturation degree around 5%. Thus, for water repellent soils, the maximum infiltration rates are associated with slightly moist rather than air-dry AMC. Model simulations also agreed well, qualitatively, with field-measured sorptivity data collected from a fire-affected, water repellent loam in Wyoming, USA. This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant Nos EAR‐1324894 and OIA-2148788 as well by the US Army Corps of Engineers under Grant Numbers DACW42-03-2-0000 and W912HZ17C0037.

How to cite: Berli, M., Shillito, R. M., Or, D., Giovando, J., Pak, J., Pradhan, N., Floyd, I. E., and McKenna, S.: The influence of antecedent moisture content (AMC) on infiltration into water repellent soil: Laboratory experiments and model calculations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13946, 2025.

Soil moisture data from arrays of vertically-aligned sensors have been used in various ways to detect the occurrence of preferential flow (PF) in the unsaturated zone. Many such data are available at only a few depths, often 5 or fewer, and at fairly long time intervals, often 15 minutes or more. Some soil-moisture networks provide data of substantially greater resolution. One of these, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) in the United States, provides soil moisture data at many locations over 18 ecoregions at 1-minute intervals, at as many as 8 depths, and as deep as 2 m. Evaluated with regard to soil moisture dynamics, such high-resolution data make it possible to go beyond the basic occurrence or nonoccurrence of PF to learn about its dynamic qualities: the magnitude and character of PF within distinct soil horizons, its transformation at layer boundaries, its interactions with soil matrix material, and the depth and duration of its influence. In some cases the rate of change of water content over small depth intervals can permit quantification of fluxes at various positions within the soil profile so that these fluxes can be evaluated with respect to the concurrent intensity and cumulative quantity of water input at land surface.

Investigation of these quantities and qualitative behaviors for identified storm periods at selected NEON locations confirms some of the prevailing expectations about PF, while also revealing new or unexpected features of potential importance. These results provide a strengthened basis for needed improvements in least two types of predictive hydrologic models: (1) for predicting the occurrence of PF in response to site characteristics and varying conditions of soil and weather, and (2) for realistically representing the PF component in general-purpose multi-domain models of flow in the unsaturated zone.

How to cite: Nimmo, J. R.: High-resolution soil moisture data reveal dynamics of preferential flow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13982, 2025.

Water availability, quality and security are major constraints on the long-term sustainable production of irrigated crops. The quality of native and imported water resources is declining in many regions which will potentially have severe adverse impact on irrigated agriculture including vineyards. We estimated water demand for irrigated vineyards in the Barossa (rainfall 440 mm) and Eden valleys (rainfall 599 mm) using the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach for six common soil types (sand over clay, shallow soil on rock, cracking clays, hard red brown, calcareous and gradational soil, and acid and shallow soil on rock) under the current (2000-2023) and future climate projections (2023-2051, RCP 4.5). A multi-component major ion chemistry model (UNSATCHEM) was used to investigate the long-term impact of various irrigation water sources (river, recycled, groundwater and their blends) on the four soil quality indicators (pH, EC, SAR and ESP) in different soils and the relative yield reduction in response to rootzone salinity. The model was equilibrated with the measured soil solution and exchange parameters for 72 years (1951-2023) to achieve a quasi-equilibrium state for each of the soil types. Management options such as leaching irrigation and gypsum use were also explored to mitigate the adverse impacts of the irrigation sources.

The modelled grapevine irrigation requirement varied with climate and soil types; and water demand increased significantly (10-45%) across the soil types under future climate projections. This drove an increase in regional water demand (28-32%) under future climate projections. A long-term risk assessment with the poorest quality water showed a grapevine yield reduction of 3-12 and 11-23%, with recycled and groundwater irrigation, respectively. These water sources increased the EC > 10dS/m, after 5-10 years of irrigation in the Barossa valley but maintained the soil salinity below the tolerance threshold for grapevines in the Eden valley, demonstrating the importance of higher rainfall for leaching salts.

Even irrigation with high quality river water can have the potential to increase exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) above the threshold level (6%) for degradation of some soil types. Maximum levels of average rootzone SAR (6.5-18mmol/L1/2) and ESP (14-52%) were observed under groundwater irrigation of cracking clay soils. The acid soil over rocks showed lower sodicity hazard than sand over clay, calcareous and gradational and hard red brown soils. Model simulations suggested that an annual leaching irrigation of 30mm in spring with good quality water and subsequent irrigaiton with recycled water (1.8dS/m) or groundwater (3.3dS/m) reduced the salinity below the grapevine tolerance level. However, leaching irrigation alone was not sufficient to ameliorate the irrigation induced high sodicity hazard. A soil ameliorant such as gypsum along with leaching irigation are needed to reduce the sodicity hazard.

Modelling predictions demonstrated that availability and quality of water resources has the potential to impact grapevine yield and soil quality indicators. Management options such as leaching irrigation and gypsum application are crucial for enhancing the long term sustainability of vineyards; but maintaining a secure source of good quality water is also important  to support the wine industry in the study region.

How to cite: Phogat, V. and Petrie, P. R.: The sustainability of irrigation water sources for vineyards in the Barossa Valley, South Australia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14602, 2025.

EGU25-15683 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Effects of vegetation type on soil wetting pattern and preferential flow in arid mountainous areas of northwest China 

Dongxiang Xue, Jie Tian, Baoqing Zhang, Weiming Kang, Yongxu Zhou, and Chansheng He

Understanding the mechanisms governing the infiltration of precipitation into soil is crucial in eco-hydrological processes. However, the effect of vegetation types on the wetting front depth and velocity is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed 1234 infiltration events based on a large-scale long-term in-situ soil moisture monitoring network in arid mountainous area of northwest China. Our results show that the proportion of preferential flow was the largest in shrub (52.38%), followed by alpine meadow (36.55%), grassland (11.51%), and barren (0.70%). The wetting front velocity was consistent with the order of the proportion of preferential flow, with values of 11.42, 4.96, 2.32, and 1.16 cm/h, respectively. The mean velocity of preferential flow events was 2.05 times (0.06–71 times) higher in the shallow soil layer and 3.86 times (0.3–68 times) higher in the deep soil layer compared to matrix flow events. The wetting front depth was shallowest in alpine meadow (14.31 cm), followed by barren (15.70 cm), grassland (18.95 cm), and shrub (39.81 cm). Moreover, the wetting front depth and velocity reach their peak values in summer, primarily influenced by precipitation. Random Forests analysis results demonstrate that preferential flow is the primary factors influencing the profile wetting front depth, with control factors varying across different soil depths, soil water characteristic curve in shallow soil layers, and vegetation in deep soil layers, respectively. Meanwhile, soil organic carbon emerged as the most important factor impacting wetting front velocity. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of infiltration processes in arid mountainous areas and offer a theoretical foundation for refining and enhancing mountain hydrological models.

How to cite: Xue, D., Tian, J., Zhang, B., Kang, W., Zhou, Y., and He, C.: Effects of vegetation type on soil wetting pattern and preferential flow in arid mountainous areas of northwest China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15683, 2025.

EGU25-16289 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

A unified hydro-thermal framework for improved skin conductivity and skin temperature in the ECLand model 

Rajsekhar Kandala, Anne Verhoef, Souhail Boussetta, Patricia De Rosnay, Yijian Zeng, and Emily Black

Accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate modelling depend critically on high-fidelity simulation of land surface processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. These interactions are governed by land surface state variables (LSSVs) such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and land surface (skin) temperature, which regulate the energy, water, and carbon fluxes at the land-atmosphere interface. LSSVs strongly influence near-surface atmospheric state variables, including air temperature and relative humidity, which are key to reliable NWP and climate forecasts. To enhance the representation of soil and vegetation processes in land surface models (LSMs), focussing on ECLand in first instance, we are developing a unified hydro-thermal framework for improved coupling of soil moisture and heat transport, and related land-atmosphere coupling. It integrates soil hydraulic and thermal properties, which are typically modelled independently, to improve the simulation of energy and water fluxes. For ECLand, we introduced two key modifications. First, the van Genuchten (1980) soil water retention curve (SWRC) was replaced with a formulation which explicitly accounts for adsorbed and capillary water content (e.g., Lu, 2016). This modification allows for a more physically realistic representation of soil hydraulic properties, particularly under dry conditions. Secondly, the thermal conductivity function of Peters-Lidard et al. (1998), currently used in ECLand, was replaced with an equation which directly links thermal conductivity to the SWRC parameters (Lu & McCartney, 2024), ensuring consistent coupling between soil hydraulic and thermal properties. This new set of equations is being developed to improve the representation of the below-ground part of the skin conductivity, a key parameter for predicting skin temperature, which is critical for accurate energy balance predictions at the land surface, including skin heat flux. While ECLand currently uses a lumped approach, whereby the skin conductivity controls heat flow through topsoil and vegetation combined, the JULES model explicitly separates the contributions of soil and vegetation. We plan to adopt equations from the JULES model for the above-ground part of skin conductivity and integrate them into the updated ECLand model, with the aim to enhance the physical representation of surface heat flux dynamics. The updated model will be tested at multiple sites, including Cabauw, to evaluate its performance. We aim to demonstrate significant improvements in the simulation of soil moisture, soil temperature, and energy fluxes, showcasing the potential of this new framework. However, broader validation across a range of climatic and soil conditions will be required to ensure robustness and scalability. Future work will focus on developing a global soil hydro-thermal parameter set tailored to the new equations, enabling global application of the framework in the IFS. Once thoroughly tested and calibrated, this advancement is expected to improve the predictability of both land surface and atmospheric state variables, ultimately enhancing the reliability of ECMWF’s seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts.

How to cite: Kandala, R., Verhoef, A., Boussetta, S., Rosnay, P. D., Zeng, Y., and Black, E.: A unified hydro-thermal framework for improved skin conductivity and skin temperature in the ECLand model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16289, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16289, 2025.

Progressive climate change, historical drainage practices, and low precipitation levels in the district of Neustadt a. d. Aisch-Bad Windsheim (Northern Bavaria) necessitate innovative strategies to improve the regional landscape water balance. Within the GrüneGräben+ project, the Ansbach Water Management Authority integrated overflow weirs into existing drainage channels in the study areas Buchholzgraben, Langenwasengraben, and Bodenfeldgraben. These structures are designed to manage floodwaters in a controlled manner while simultaneously promoting infiltration of surface water into the soil. The infiltrated water can either be utilized as plant-available moisture or contribute to stabilizing groundwater levels by percolation.

Each location has been equipped with extensive measurement instrumentation, including rain gauges, surface water sensors, temperature sensors, and soil moisture sensors. In addition, comprehensive field surveys were carried out, where soil samples taken from the immediate vicinity of the channels were analyzed in the laboratory for their soil physical properties. Further measurements included soil moisture assessments via time domain reflectometry (TDR), infiltration tests using double-ring infiltrometers, and topographic data obtained from drone photogrammetry and GPS surveys. These data provide a detailed basis for characterizing runoff and infiltration processes, as well as microtopography, which are used to calibrate and validate hydrological model output.

To evaluate the effectiveness of the measures, hydrological models are employed across multiple spatial scales, primarily using the physically-based numerical models HydroGeoSphere (HGS) and SWAT+. Modeling first takes place at the plot scale (PE), where HGS simulates the interactions between surface water and the porous medium surrounding the trench while factoring macropores, surface crusting, and crop rotation. This complex water flow is represented by the three-dimensional Richards equation in the porous media domain, and the two-dimensional shallow water equation in the surface domain. By using the corresponding Van Genuchten parameters derived from laboratory experimentation, the impact and changes in borders of capillary fringe, field capacity, and wilting point are studied.

Moreover, HGS is also applied at the catchment scale to generate the boundary conditions required by the smaller plot-scale model. At the catchment level, scenarios such as using a series of weirs to improve the water balance on a broader scale are simulated. The SWAT+ model is likewise employed to investigate additional scenarios regarding the effectiveness of these measures across the catchment. The results provide a scalable foundation for transferring the effects of these interventions to larger landscape units, thereby enhancing the region’s resilience to water stress brought on by climate change.

How to cite: El Hajjar, S. and Keßel, N.: From Plot to Catchment: Multi-Scale Modeling of Overflow Weirs to Strengthen Regional Water Resilience in Northern Bavaria, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17573, 2025.

EGU25-18091 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.1

Determination of soil hydraulic functions across the full moisture range by extending the simplified evaporation method using humidity sensors 

Jannis Bosse, Wolfgang Durner, Sascha C. Iden, Magdalena Sut-Lohmann, and Andre Peters

The Simplified Evaporation Method (SEM) is widely used to simultaneously determine the water retention curve (WRC) and hydraulic conductivity curve (HCC) of soils. However, its application is traditionally restricted to the suction range measurable by tensiometers. To overcome this limitation, we incorporated humidity sensors into the setup of the SEM, enabling measurements of soil water potential in the hygroscopic range. This advancement allows for the measurement of a quasi-continuous time series of soil water suction from full saturation to air dryness, which allows to determine the WRC across this range and the HCC from field capacity to air dryness. We term this approach the eXtended Simplified Evaporation Method (XSEM).

We tested the XSEM on three soil types—silt loam, sandy loam, and sand—and compared its results with those from the dew point method (DPM) and inverse modeling, observing strong agreement among the methods. Key advantages of the XSEM include (i) simultaneous determination of both hydraulic functions using a single experimental setup and straightforward calculations, (ii) reduced effort for WRC determination at suctions above 10⁴ cm compared to the DPM, (iii) high-resolution outputs, and (iv) a fully automated protocol. In particular, XSEM provides a realistic assessment of film and vapor flow contributions to the HCC, which dominate water flux in porous media at low water content. These advancements improve the modeling of soil water dynamics and actual evaporation rates in dry soil.

How to cite: Bosse, J., Durner, W., Iden, S. C., Sut-Lohmann, M., and Peters, A.: Determination of soil hydraulic functions across the full moisture range by extending the simplified evaporation method using humidity sensors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18091, 2025.

EGU25-18836 | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

High-resolution soil moisture reanalysis of Switzerland (2016-2023) 

Pascal Buri, Álvaro Ayala, Michael McCarthy, Simone Fatichi, Philipp Brun, Dirk Karger, Liangzhi Chen, and Francesca Pellicciotti

Soil moisture is a cornerstone variable in the interaction between the land and the atmosphere, controlling hydrological and vegetation processes. Soil moisture variations in space and time are a key input for various applications in hydrology, geomorphology, agriculture and soil sciences. The direct monitoring of soil moisture and upscaling to large areas is challenging, while satellite remote sensing is only possible for the top few centimetres of the soil column with considerable uncertainties. In this study, we present a new soil moisture reanalysis for the entire Switzerland, consisting of daily resolution soil moisture maps at six depths (from 0 to 2 m) at a horizontal resolution of 250 m during 2016-2023. The maps are generated as a part of a detailed numerical simulation of the hydrological cycle of Switzerland using the mechanistic eco-hydrological model Tethys-Chloris (T&C).

T&C represents essential components of the hydrological and carbon cycles, resolving exchanges of energy, water, and CO2 between the land surface and the atmosphere. Soil moisture dynamics in saturated and unsaturated soils are solved using the one-dimensional Richards equation for vertical flow and the kinematic wave equation for lateral subsurface flow. The model was forced by hourly meteorological data from the SwissMetNet weather station network and a gridded precipitation product, alongside state-of-the-art land cover and soil characteristics. Results of T&C align well with independent in-situ and remote observations of soil moisture, as well as other eco-hydrological variables such as streamflow, snow depth, LAI, and fluxes of CO2, water and energy which lend credibility to the soil moisture reanalysis.

The study period (2016-2023) includes two recent years of severe spring-summer droughts (2018 and 2022), which are used to showcase how soil moisture anomalies have been developing throughout these dry periods. Preliminary analyses show that during the spring and summer of 2018, which were preceded by a relatively wet winter, soil moisture anomalies were small except in the eastern areas of the Central Plateau where they reached approximately -35% compared to the 2016-2023 seasonal average. In contrast, the spring and summer of 2022, which were preceded by a dry winter, exhibited more widespread anomalies ranging from -15% to -35%, affecting the Jura Mountains, the Central Plateau, and the lower elevations of the Southern Alps. In general, results reveal a large spatial and temporal variability across the six biogeographical regions of Switzerland (Jura Mountains, Central Plateau, Northern Alps, Eastern Alps, Western Alps, and Southern Alps). The soil moisture reanalysis presented in this study is the first of its type, and can be used as a reference dataset and as input for studies looking at floods, landslides, crop productivity, tree water stress, wildfire risk and other applications, where knowledge of soil moisture is essential.

How to cite: Buri, P., Ayala, Á., McCarthy, M., Fatichi, S., Brun, P., Karger, D., Chen, L., and Pellicciotti, F.: High-resolution soil moisture reanalysis of Switzerland (2016-2023), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18836, 2025.

EGU25-18894 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Local landscape morphology controls soil temperature and moisture dynamics at an alpine treeline ecotone 

Kerstin Diederich, Stephen Boahen Asabere, Michael Klinge, Daniel Schwindt, Georg Guggenberger, and Daniela Sauer

Global warming is particularly pronounced in mountainous alpine regions like the Swiss Alps, with consequences on local to global ecosystems. Within alpine regions, the climatically sensitive treeline ecotone is situated between the timberline, where the forest canopy is connected, and the unvegetated alpine zone. This ecotone is comprised mostly of shrubs and grasses, with smaller trees. The treeline ecotone is thus characterized by marked small-scale spatial variability in landform, rock, soil, and vegetation, making it challenging for generalizing and modelling landscape changes. In this regard, highly resolved spatial and temporal landscape assessment is of utmost importance in assessing the response of such sensitive, yet, dynamic ecotones to global warming.

Here, we investigate how the amount of solar radiation and temporal extent of snow cover influence soil temperature and moisture at two topographical positions: (i) depression and (ii) ridge. We hypothesized that topographical features, as well as soil composition are key factors influencing soil moisture dynamics, and thermal exchange. These two sites were selected within a single landform on a glacially shaped alpine meadow to minimize the effect of other ecosystem factors that were not of interest to this study. Geophysical measurements were used to characterize the subsurface structure of the landform between the two sites. A soil profile up to a depth of 80 cm at the depression and 50 cm at the ridge was opened, described and sampled. Each profile was further equipped with microclimate sensors for in-situ measurements of soil temperature, moisture, and matric potential over a period of one and a half years. The profile soil samples were analyzed for texture, porosity, and organic matter content.

The results indicated that the extent of snow cover shapes the dynamics of soil temperature and moisture.  The duration of snow cover was substantially influenced by local topography, as observed in snow persisting for four weeks longer in the depression compared to the ridge during summer. This, in turn, affected soil thermal behavior and contributed to a longer growing season on the ridge than in the depression. Temperature and moisture variability were more pronounced on the ridge, with soil temperature interquartile ranges of 0.2°C to 2.4°C in the depression and 0.3°C to 5.4°C on the ridge, highlighting greater temperature variability on the ridge. Similarly, soil moisture content showed unexpected patterns, with a median of 0.38 m³ m⁻³ in the depression and 0.46 m³ m⁻³ on the ridge. This result contrasts with expectations based on the higher clay and silt content in the depression, which typically promotes moisture retention, and merits further examination.

Our findings highlight the critical influence of snow cover and topography on soil temperature and moisture dynamics within the alpine treeline ecotone. Unexpectedly higher moisture levels on the ridge location and pronounced thermal variability emphasize the need to account for localized soil and microclimatic interactions. These results underscore the challenges in generalizing ecosystem responses to climate change and the importance of small-scale assessments in sensitive alpine landscapes.

How to cite: Diederich, K., Asabere, S. B., Klinge, M., Schwindt, D., Guggenberger, G., and Sauer, D.: Local landscape morphology controls soil temperature and moisture dynamics at an alpine treeline ecotone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18894, 2025.

EGU25-19175 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.1

Effect of soil structure on vadose zone hydrology in the ORCHIDEE land surface model 

Filip Kiałka, Omar Flores, Kim Naudts, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, and Bertrand Guenet

Soil structure is nearly as important as soil texture in determining the soil hydraulic properties at the core scale. Soil structure was also shown to significantly affect runoff and drainage at ecosystem scale (Fatichi et al., 2020; Bonetti et al., 2021). However, its effect on vadose zone hydrology at 100 km scale — at which climate and land surface models are often run — remains unclear. Seminal works (Fatichi et al., 2020; Bonetti et al., 2021) found a small effect of soil structure at these large scales, but this has been linked to the nature of the subgrid parametrization of precipitation (or of soil hydraulic conductivity) in the employed models. Here, we evaluate the effect of soil structure on vadose zone hydrology in the ORCHIDEE land surface model, which models infiltration using a unique subgrid parametrization of soil hydraulic conductivity (Vereecken et al., 2019). In ORCHIDEE, we find a larger effect of soil structure on the water cycle than reported for OLAM (Fatichi et al., 2020). We link this to the subgrid variability of hydraulic conductivity in ORCHIDEE, which ensures that the structural modifications of soil hydraulic properties are activated at all rainfall rates. Finally, we discuss the perspectives for parametrizing the structural modifications of soil hydraulic properties at large scales using soil moisture observations.

Bonetti, S., Wei, Z., & Or, D. (2021). A framework for quantifying hydrologic effects of soil structure across scales. Communications Earth & Environment, 2 (1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00180-0

Fatichi, S., Or, D., Walko, R., Vereecken, H., Young, M. H., Ghezzehei, T. A., Hengl, T., Kollet, S., Agam, N., & Avissar, R. (2020). Soil structure is an important omission in Earth System Models. Nature Communications, 11 (1), 522. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14411-z

Vereecken, H., Weihermüller, L., Assouline, S., Šimůnek, J., Verhoef, A., Herbst, M., Archer, N., Mohanty, B., Montzka, C., Vanderborght, J., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, M., Boone, A., Chadburn, S., Cuntz, M., Decharme, B., Ducharne, A., Ek, M., Garrigues, S., … Xue, Y. (2019). Infiltration from the Pedon to Global Grid Scales: An Overview and Outlook for Land Surface Modeling. Vadose Zone Journal, 18 (1), 180191. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.10.0191

How to cite: Kiałka, F., Flores, O., Naudts, K., Luyssaert, S., and Guenet, B.: Effect of soil structure on vadose zone hydrology in the ORCHIDEE land surface model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19175, 2025.

Modeling soil hydraulic processes requires robust and stable numerical solutions, also when computational resources are limited. Different challenging problems like sudden changes of pressure or fluxes at the boundary of the model domain or very dry initial conditions are challenges for standard numerical solution methods such low-order finite difference and finite element methods. The Method of Lines approach is proven to achieve numerical robustness and stability while allowing the handling of different complex soil hydraulic models for one-dimensional problems. To be applicable in a wide range of scenarios the method should also be easily extensible. Here the Method Of Lines approach is shown to enable the handling of different complex soil hydraulic models, the modification of Richards' equation to consider non-equilibrium effects and the extension with a lateral flow model to form a combined 1.5D hillslope model.

 

A slightly modified Method of Lines approach is used to solve the pressure based 1D Richards' equation. A finite differencing scheme is applied to the spatial derivative and the resulting system of ordinary differential equations is reformulated as differential-algebraic system of equations. The open-source code IDAS from the Sundials suite is used to solve the DAE system. To show the broad applicability of the method, several successful use cases are presented. These range from the inclusion of more complex soil hydraulic models to be able to consider hystersis effects and dual-permeability flow over the extension of Richards' equation to model non-equilibrium unsaturated flow to linking the Richards' equation with the Boussinesq lateral flow equation to form an efficient 1.5-D hillslope model.

 

The results show that the Method of Lines approach for solving Richards' equation satisfies the required conditions of numerical robustness and stability and allows for easily including new processes and a wider set of applications.

How to cite: Mietrach, R., Schütze, N., and Wöhling, T.: A robust solution to Richards' equation with use cases in complex soil hydraulic models, non-equilibrium unsaturated flow in soil and model coupling using the Method Of Lines, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19458, 2025.

Soil moisture (SM) is a relatively active surface parameters that are significant to the sustainable development of the water–land–air–plant–human nexus. In response to the requirements of multiscale product validation and multisource uncertainty tracking, a soil moisture monitoring network in the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB-NET) was established in September 2019. The QLB-NET is characterized by densely distributed in situ sites (82 sites) measuring SM and ST at 5-, 10-, and 30-cm depths, with 60 sites in a large-scale network in a heterogeneous area of 36 km × 40 km, which covers the SMAP, AMSR2, SMOS pixel footprint, and 22 sites evenly distributed across two small-scale 1 km × 1 km networks for sub-grid analysis. The site deployment strategy, the installation and maintenance, the sensor calibration, and the characteristics and quality of the in situ SM measurements of QLB-NET will be introduced in detail. Quantitative analyses of the in situ measurements was carried out, which shows that the QLB-NET can provide stable and reliable ground truth for SM over coarse grid scales, facilitating product validation and uncertainty tracking, spatiotemporal analysis of SM change optimization of the SM retrieving algorithms and scaling methods in heterogeneous regions.

How to cite: Zhu, Z.: The Dataset of Dense Soil Moisture Monitoring Network in the Qinghai Lake Basin on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1605, 2025.

EGU25-11764 | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

Integration of soil moisture measurements into the observation network of the German Meteorological Service – the project IsaBoM 

Wolfgang Kurtz, Mario Albert, Mathias Herbst, Leonhard Hufnagl, and Jan Lenkeit

As many other European countries, Germany has been affected by an increasing number of both drought and flood events in the last couple of years that had considerable negative impacts on the agricultural and forestry sector. These events led to an increasing information demand of stakeholders, practitioners and the general public on critical variables such as soil moisture.  Area-wide information on soil moisture is most often derived indirectly from hydrological model simulations, one of them being DWD’s soil moisture viewer which is based on the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-model AMBAV. Besides model-based soil moisture information, which is strongly influenced by model assumptions and parameterisation, a number of institutions started to build-up local soil moisture observation networks, such as the TERENO network, that also provide in-situ observations of soil moisture states. However, a nationwide observation network for (standardised) soil moisture observations is still lacking in Germany.

The project IsaBoM (“Integration of standardised and automatized soil moisture measurements in the DWD observation network”), an internal project of the German Meteorological Service (DWD), strives to establish the technical and scientific basis for introducing standardised soil moisture observations in DWD’s operational meteorological observation network. This includes e.g. the choice of suitable sensors and measurement protocols, calibration procedures for selected sensors, quality-control measures and establishing data flow and automated data provisioning. The final goal is to equip about 25 stations throughout Germany with cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS)-devices and in-situ profile measurements of soil moisture where the chosen locations should provide a representative subset in terms of soil properties and climatic conditions. Here we present the overall network design as well as first comparisons between soil moisture data obtained by different CRNS-sensors at two sites that have a broad range of complementary agrometeorological measurements in place that facilitate a thorough interpretation of the results.

How to cite: Kurtz, W., Albert, M., Herbst, M., Hufnagl, L., and Lenkeit, J.: Integration of soil moisture measurements into the observation network of the German Meteorological Service – the project IsaBoM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11764, 2025.

EGU25-13338 | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

Enhancing Soil Moisture Prediction with Data-Driven Models: A Global Perspective 

Steven Hristopoulos, Gabriel Moraga, and Noah Pearson Kramer

The prediction of soil moisture plays a vital role in assessing water availability, optimizing agricultural resources, and preparing for climate-induced disasters. However, significant gaps remain in soil moisture observation networks due to data sparsity, inconsistent temporal coverage, and limited spatial resolution, particularly in underrepresented regions. The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), the largest archive of in situ soil moisture data, highlights these challenges, with many datasets averaging only a decade of temporal coverage and biased spatial distribution heavily skewed toward the Global North. This study presents a data-driven modeling framework designed to enhance soil moisture prediction by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques, diverse geospatial datasets, and in situ observations.

Our multi-stream model integrates high-resolution data from Sentinel-2 (NDVI, B4, B8), ECMWF weather forecasts, and SRTM elevation models to predict surface and rootzone soil moisture at six-hour intervals. Validation against SMAP L4 datasets demonstrates high accuracy, achieving mean RMSE values of 0.1087 m³/m³ for surface moisture and 0.1183 m³/m³ for rootzone moisture across 20 Köppen-Geiger climate zones. The modular design enables the model to adapt to diverse climatic conditions and refine predictions through continuous validation. Performance analysis reveals strong temporal generalization and superior results in wet climates, though arid and extreme environments pose challenges, highlighting areas for targeted improvements.

To address data sparsity, the study emphasizes balanced sampling and the integration of citizen science initiatives, which supplement traditional networks by providing localized, high-frequency observations. By incorporating in situ ISMN datasets, the framework aligns with the session's focus on improving observation networks and leveraging data quality assurance. Additionally, hybrid approaches that combine physical constraints with machine learning models ensure predictions are grounded in realistic soil behavior and spatial consistency.

This research underscores the importance of sustained investment in developing and maintaining soil moisture observation networks, particularly in underrepresented regions. It highlights the need for standardized data collection protocols, advanced calibration techniques, and open-access platforms that integrate in situ and satellite observations. By bridging gaps in traditional networks, the model advances global soil moisture monitoring, supporting applications in sustainable agriculture, water resource planning, and climate resilience.

Aligned with session HS8.3.2, this study exemplifies the role of innovative measurement techniques and data-driven approaches in enhancing the utility of soil moisture datasets. The findings advocate for a collaborative scientific effort to address the pressing challenges of data availability, quality assurance, and network deployment. Through scalable modeling frameworks, this research sets the foundation for predictive systems that provide actionable insights to policymakers and practitioners in hydrology, agriculture, and climate science.

How to cite: Hristopoulos, S., Moraga, G., and Pearson Kramer, N.: Enhancing Soil Moisture Prediction with Data-Driven Models: A Global Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13338, 2025.

EGU25-13801 | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

How well do gridded products represent soil moisture signatures in natural ecosystems during precipitation events? 

Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Daniel Nuñez-Ibarra, and Mauricio Galleguillos

Soil moisture (SM) is a key factor influencing the interactions between the atmosphere and processes at the Earth’s surface. Recent advances in remote sensing and land surface modelling have improved the estimation of soil moisture in ungauged areas.

This study evaluates the performance of four state-of-the-art gridded SM products - SPL4SMAU, GLDAS, ERA5 and ERA5-Land - compared to in situ measurements at ten sites located in near-natural shrublanbd and native forest ecosystems of the semi-arid and humid regions of central and southern Chile (five in the semi-arid north and five in the humid south). The unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), Pearson’s product-moment correlation coefficient (r) and modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE') were used as performance metrics to evaluate the representation of surface soil moisture (SSM) and root zone soil moisture (RZSM). In addition, event rising time (RT) and amplitude (A) were used as SM signatures to assess the dynamic aspects of the soil moisture time series and to enable process-based model evaluations.

Our results show that SPL4SMAU achieves the lowest ubRMSE for both SSM and RZSM, especially in the northern region. However, ERA5 and ERA5-Land outperformed SPL4SMAU in terms of linear correlation and KGE', with particularly good results in the humid south. In terms of SM responses to the first precipitation event of the year, SSM amplitude was generally higher in the humid south, with SPL4SMAU and ERA5-Land very close to in situ values, while GLDAS showed a lower sensitivity to precipitation. As expected, all datasets showed a slower response for RZSM compared to SSM, with GLDAS showing the longest rising times in both regions. On the other hand, SPL4SMAU and GLDAS showed a stronger increase in SSM amplitude in the south for the most intense precipitation event of the year, while ERA5-Land showed more moderate rising times, which is consistent with the in-situ data.

Overall, ERA5-Land and ERA5 proved to be reliable datasets for representing the spatio-temporal variability of SM in central and southern Chile, especially in the southern ecosystems, while SPL4SMAU performed well in terms of uRMSE but showed large variability in the other metrics analysed.

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of ANID-Fondecyt Regular 1212071, 1210932, ANID-PCI NSFC 190018, and ANID/FONDAP 1523A0002.

How to cite: Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Nuñez-Ibarra, D., and Galleguillos, M.: How well do gridded products represent soil moisture signatures in natural ecosystems during precipitation events?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13801, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13801, 2025.

EGU25-15016 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

Monitoring deep unsaturated zones in Western Australia to reveal crucial insights for water resources management 

Simone Gelsinari, Sarah Bourke, Richard Silberstein, and Sally Thompson

Soil moisture observations have been collected since the late 1950s and are relatively abundant in the northern hemisphere. These readings are generally taken at shallow depths with sensors rarely installed more than 2 metres below the surface. However, deep soil moisture dynamics can play a crucial role in determining ecosystem services, land-atmosphere water fluxes, plant water use, nutrient cycle and, eventually, groundwater recharge. In thick unsaturated zones, shallow soil moisture observations are likely to fail to capture important hydrological processes, and their feedback with the atmosphere, generating significant uncertainties. 

Here we present the results from a soil moisture monitoring network established as part of the Recharge in a Changing Climate (RiCC) project. The network aims to capture soil moisture dynamics in deep sandy profiles of a Mediterranean-like zone in Western Australia, where traditional shallow and surface soil moisture observations fall short of detecting significant hydrological processes. The monitoring network, deployed since 2022, comprises over 75 sensors strategically distributed across 7 locations over the Swan Coastal Plain at depths of up to 9 m to provide continuous high-frequency soil moisture data. These soil moisture sensors are complemented by 14 access tubes where neutron moisture probe readings are taken to characterize the spatial heterogeneity.

Findings reveal complex patterns of moisture movement through the profile, with significant temporal variations in wetting front depths and propagation patterns, improving the representation of soil water/vegetation interaction, and providing unique insights into groundwater recharge processes in sandy aquifer systems. These observations challenge existing assumptions about soil water movement in sandy soils and provide crucial validation data for improving ecohydrological models and recharge quantification. Information from the RiCC monitoring campaign can significantly reduce uncertainties in water resources management and, by including transpiration from deeper soil moisture pools, enhance the accuracy of modelled land-atmosphere feedback. These insights are also beneficial for understanding the resilience of ecosystems and agroecosystems under transient climate conditions.

How to cite: Gelsinari, S., Bourke, S., Silberstein, R., and Thompson, S.: Monitoring deep unsaturated zones in Western Australia to reveal crucial insights for water resources management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15016, 2025.

EGU25-15693 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

Drone-based multiband Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAV-RADAR) for soil moisture assessment 

Daniel Evans, Bernardo Candido, and Armando Marino

Soil moisture plays a vital role in agriculture, drought management, and flood prevention. It is essential for plant growth and sustainable farming practices. In flood-prone areas, soil's ability to retain water helps absorb excess moisture and reduce runoff, mitigating flood risks. Therefore, effective soil moisture monitoring is crucial for informed irrigation and water management decisions. Various methods exist for measuring soil moisture, both in-situ and remote. In-situ techniques, like volumetric and gravimetric sampling, provide real-time data but are limited to specific locations unless interpolation is applied. On the other hand, remote sensing offers broader spatial coverage but often with lower resolution and accuracy. While remote sensing can validate ground-based data, it is less effective for capturing short-term changes, such as those resulting from irrigation, at fine temporal scales.

To address these challenges, we are developing UAV-RADAR, the first multiband Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mounted on a drone. Unlike conventional SAR platforms (e.g., Sentinel-1), UAV-RADAR provides rapid, high-resolution, and scalable soil moisture data tailored to specific agricultural and environmental contexts. Its customizable flight plans enable detailed pre- and post-treatment analyses, capturing temporal changes with unprecedented flexibility.

In this presentation, we will showcase our current research and development of UAV-RADAR to date, demonstrating its capability to measure soil moisture across diverse soil types, landscapes, and agricultural practices. Using data from proof-of-concept experiments carried out in England and Wales, we will show soil moisture maps and demonstrate their applications. We will highlight use cases, and explore how UAV-RADAR can contribute to initiatives like the International Soil Moisture Network.

How to cite: Evans, D., Candido, B., and Marino, A.: Drone-based multiband Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAV-RADAR) for soil moisture assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15693, 2025.

The Network of stations for the Monitoring of physical Parameters of Soils in Catalonia (XMS-Cat) acquires and provides continuous data on in situ soil temperature and moisture at different depths of the soil profile. Initiated in 2015, this relatively young network currently comprises 19 stations and is expanding at a steady rate of two stations per year, aiming for full coverage of the region. Accelerated coverage expansion is planned through data-hosting agreements with privately owned stations, such as those associated with wine protected designations.
The network has recently undertaken a comprehensive review and assessment of its deployment, installation, and data quality assurance protocols to ensure adherence to established best practices, long-term viability, and consistency with other networks.
This contribution provides an overview of the XMS-Cat network and presents the preliminary results of the ongoing review. The aim is to foster dialogue among networks and stakeholders while leveraging the collective knowledge of this dynamic community.

How to cite: Portell, X., Boquera, L., Vicens, M., and Lladós, A.: Review and assessment of current protocols of the Network of stations for the Monitoring of Physical Parameters of Soils in Catalonia (XMS-Cat), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15705, 2025.

EGU25-15709 | Posters on site | HS8.3.2

Cosmic Rays Neutron Sensing for soil moisture monitoring in vineyard with variable soil conditions 

Marcella Biddoccu, Gazzola Enrico, Giorgio Capello, Davide Gisolo, Stefano Gianessi, Stefano Bechis, and Stefano Ferraris

Cosmic Rays Neutron Sensing (CRNS) is a well-known method in Hydrology that allows to measure soil water content on a large scale and in depth. It is based on the detection of cosmogenic neutrons, particles generated by the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere, after their interaction with the soil where they can be effectively absorbed by water molecules. The signal collected by a single CRNS probe in terms of neutron count rate is sensitive to soil moisture within a volume spanning up to a dozen hectares and up to 50 cm depth, in real-time, positioning itself in a horizontal spatial scale in between point measurements and satellites.

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of CRNS to give information about soil moisture in an agricultural system with different soil conditions, a site in the Alto Monferrato vine-growing area (Piedmont, NW Italy) was equipped with a Finapp CRNS probe since August 2023. The site has two vineyard-field-scale plots with inter-rows managed with conventional tillage (CT) and grass cover (GC), respectively. More than 20 sensors are located in different positions and depths (from 10 to 50 cm) in the vineyard, including the STEMS network that is part of the International Soil Moisture Network. Precipitation measurements on site are available over more than 20 years, show that 2023 was very dry, with Standardized Precipitation Index lower than -1 for most of the year, whereas 2024 was increasingly wet, with exception of first two months of the year.

Available soil moisture data from CRNS and sensors have been compared until autumn 2024, using statistical indexes such as the efficiency coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe (NSE), root mean square error of residuals (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination of the linear regression (R2). The analysis was carried out separately for the two years, which were considered respectively dry and wet.

Statistics showed that in the last 5 months of 2023 (dry period) there was a good agreement of soil moisture values measured by sensors between 10 and 20 cm of depth with both soil management, with different results according to the position, the best reported in the middle of the GC inter-row at depth of 20 cm (R2=0.913, NSE=0.756, RMSE=0.25). The results for 2024, which was a wetter year, showed great variability, such as the values recorded by the sensors, with unsatisfactory statistics, since best values for indexes were obtained for the sensor placed in the middle of CT inter-row (R2=0.598, NSE=0.485, RMSE=0.118).

Thus, in the dry period the CRNS probe gave good information on soil moisture conditions in the most superficial layer disregarding the soil management of the vineyard. On the contrary, the difficulty in having good agreement in wet conditions can be due to the high spatial variability of soil moisture both in the horizontal and in-depth directions, soil saturation and ponding, in addition to variable conditions of soil conditions (i.e. soil density) depending to soil management and tractor traffic during the growing season.

How to cite: Biddoccu, M., Enrico, G., Capello, G., Gisolo, D., Gianessi, S., Bechis, S., and Ferraris, S.: Cosmic Rays Neutron Sensing for soil moisture monitoring in vineyard with variable soil conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15709, 2025.

Surface soil moisture (SSM) plays a significant role in the energy exchanges and the complex interaction within the air–soil–water–plant-human nexus. To better evaluate and utilize the microwave remote sensing (RS) SSM products at coarse scale (e.g., 0.25°) and the retrieved SSM data at fine-scale (e.g., 1 km), a pixel-scale reference dataset should be generated within the area of in-situ network. However, in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where in-situ SSM data is sparse and limited, the current fine-scale SSM datasets generated using machine learning (ML) methods face certain limitations in terms of spatial extrapolation capability. In this study, we developed a framework that integrated ML method with geostatistical spatiotemporal fusion method to generate long-term and seamless 1 km SSM dataset with higher spatial extrapolation accuracy. The study area included five ground observation network regions (Shiquanhe, Pali, Naqu, Heihe and Maqu). Firstly, the incomplete 1 km scale SSM was retrieved by upscaling the in-situ SSM using the Residual Dense Network (RDN) model. Then, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method, considering the uncertainties of the upscaled SSM, was employed to spatiotemporally fuse upscaled and in-situ SSM to improve the accuracy of spatial extrapolation. Validation based test sites shows that the accuracy of the fused SSM data was improved across all five regions, with the improvement in ubRMSE ranging from 3.33% to 21.28%, resulting in an overall increase of 8.2%. The fused SSM can more effectively capture the temporal variability of the measurements of test stations. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively generates a reference SSM dataset within the ground observation network area.

How to cite: Zhu, Z.: Generation of long-term and seamless 1 km surface soil moisture dataset within the area of in-situ network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18617, 2025.

EGU25-575 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4 | Highlight

Enhancing Water Quality and Agricultural Resilience through Riverbank Filtration: A Case Study from the Nile River, Egypt  

Mohamed Ibrahim, Ali Gad, Olfat Ali, and Ahmed Ahmed

  Projected climate changes in arid and semi-arid regions, such as reduced aquifer recharge capacity and altered riverine hydrography, pose significant challenges to water supply, particularly in the Nile River basin in Egypt. Riverbank Filtration (RBF) offers a sustainable, cost-effective water treatment technology that enhances the quality of water abstracted from polluted rivers. By installing abstraction wells along riverbanks, RBF supports agricultural resilience and climate adaptation by providing a stable and reliable water source during extreme events. This study evaluates a full-scale RBF site in Akhmim City, consisting of four vertical wells located 50 meters from the Nile River bank. Samples were collected from both the RBF wells and the Nile River during a period of extreme precipitation in November 2016, which significantly affected the river’s water quality. Key parameters analyzed included turbidity, dissolved oxygen, total suspended solids, total organic carbon, pH, electrical conductivity, bacterial counts, and coliform levels. Results showed that while Nile River turbidity ranged from 5–25 NTU, with potential hundred-fold increases during flash floods, RBF wells consistently maintained turbidity below 5 NTU. Similarly, bacterial counts in Nile water exceeded 55,000 CFU/100 mL during the event, compared to less than 2,100 CFU/100 mL in RBF water. The pH of Nile water was measured at 8.6, compared to 7.5 for RBF filtrate. These findings indicate that RBF significantly improves both physical and microbiological water quality, meeting national irrigation water standards. Moreover, RBF not only enhanced the quality of ambient groundwater but also effectively purified Nile water, making it a viable alternative to conventional surface water treatment plants. This study highlights the cost-effectiveness and reliability of RBF as a treatment solution in the Nile Valley, offering an adaptable and sustainable approach to mitigating the impacts of climate change while supporting agriculture and water security.

Keywords: Climate change, Arid and semi-arid regions, Nile River, Riverbank filtration, Aquifer recharge, Water quality, sustainable water treatment.

How to cite: Ibrahim, M., Gad, A., Ali, O., and Ahmed, A.: Enhancing Water Quality and Agricultural Resilience through Riverbank Filtration: A Case Study from the Nile River, Egypt , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-575, 2025.

Open ditches and subsurface drainage are effective measures for improving saline soils. Installations of subsurface drainage are now complementing surface drainage in Northwest China, but their optimisation has not been attempted. Therefore, the drainage and desalination performance of a combined subsurface drainage-open ditch system was analysed using two years of field experiments. The data were then utilised to calibrate and validate a water and salt transport model. The drainage volume in surface drains were 9-fold those in subsurface pipes. Additionally, 25 sets of orthogonal numerical experiments were designed with the subsurface pipe length, depth, and open ditch depth as variables. The results revealed that these three factors significantly affected the desalination efficiency of salinealkaline farmland (P < 0.05). The ditch depth, pipe length, and pipe depth F values were 9.954, 50.286, and 6.557, respectively, and no interactions were observed among these factors. When a single open ditch was used for drainage, the desalination rate initially increased and then decreased as the distance from the open ditch increased. The inflection point varied with the open ditch depth and occurred within a range of 32–43 m when the ditch depth was 180–300 cm. The combination of an open ditch and a subsurface pipe produced a larger desalination area, and its efficiency was 170 % that of a single open ditch. Within the inflection point range, the desalination rate increased with increasing ditch depth. Beyond the inflection point, subsurface drainage played a primary role, and the desalination rate increased as the subsurface drainage depth increased but remained relatively stable along the drainage direction. The optimal installation depth for subsurface pipes was estimated to be 90–110 cm, and the depth of ditches was 180–210 cm in a combined system. The maximum length for full flow in long-distance subsurface drainage was 750–850 m. This study provides references for the optimal application of combined subsurface drainage–open ditch systems in arid Northwest China.

How to cite: Wu, J., Guo, C., Yao, C., and Qin, S.: Evaluation of combined open ditch and subsurface drainage: Experimental data and optimization of specifications in arid Northwest China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1894, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1894, 2025.

EGU25-2695 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Water Footprint Dynamics in Turkish Agriculture: Linking Climate Change and Crop Yields 

Abdullah Muratoglu, Muhammed Sungur Demir, and Veysi Kartal

The agricultural sector plays a vital role in food security and water resource management. Climate change impacts, combined with growing population and increasing food demand, have led to higher plant water consumption, making effective water management crucial in agriculture. This study examines how climate change affects agricultural water footprint (WF) in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019, along with local climate parameters, production quantities, and yield data.
Our research shows distinct climate change patterns in Türkiye: slight decreases in average wind speed and solar radiation, a significant decline in relative humidity, and a clear upward trend in maximum and minimum temperatures. While reduced wind speed and solar radiation may slightly decrease plant water consumption, the higher temperatures and lower humidity likely have more substantial negative effects on evapotranspiration. Importantly, we found that crop yield is the main factor influencing agricultural WF variations in Türkiye. Despite climate challenges, technological advances and better farming practices led to around 60% increase in crop yield. This improvement reduced virtual water content (VWC) of crops by 35% and decreased the country's total agricultural WF by around 10%. However, the relatively small reduction in WF compared to the significant improvements in yield and VWC indicates the strong influence of climate change and changing crop patterns.
Although the national agricultural WF exhibits a modest declining trend over the 30-year period, indicating improvements in water resources, climate change continues to pose significant challenges. Since such substantial yield increases are unlikely to continue, climate change impacts on WF are expected to worsen. These findings highlight the critical need for comprehensive water management strategies to address climate change effects and maintain sustainable water resources in Türkiye.

How to cite: Muratoglu, A., Demir, M. S., and Kartal, V.: Water Footprint Dynamics in Turkish Agriculture: Linking Climate Change and Crop Yields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2695, 2025.

EGU25-2696 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Effective Precipitation Models in Irrigation Planning: Validation and Comparison Using the SWAT Method 

Muhammed Sungur Demir and Abdullah Muratoglu

Accurate estimation of effective precipitation (Peff) - the portion of rainfall stored in soil and utilized by plants - is fundamental for sustainable irrigation planning and soil water management. Despite its critical role in agricultural water use efficiency, existing Peff calculation methods often lack regional specificity and validation against physical soil-water processes. This study evaluates the performance of two widely-used precipitation estimation methods (CROPWAT and Dependable Rain FAO/AGLW) against detailed soil water balance calculations from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Ceyhan Basin, Türkiye.

Our SWAT model incorporated local soil characteristics, topography, and climate data to simulate soil-water dynamics and establish a benchmark for Peff estimation. The comparative analysis revealed distinct seasonal patterns in method accuracy. The CROPWAT method showed strong agreement with SWAT results during the May-November, with deviations of only 4-14% in the autumn months. However, it significantly overestimated Peff during winter months (December-April) by 30-35%. Conversely, the Dependable Rain method performed optimally during winter, with deviations of 6-12% in December-January, but showed substantial inaccuracies (>70%) during January-September, improving only during periods of higher effective precipitation.

These findings demonstrate that current Peff estimation methods have complementary strengths in different seasons, suggesting the need for a more nuanced, season-specific approach to irrigation planning. The substantial variations in method accuracy highlight the importance of considering local soil conditions and seasonal climate patterns in irrigation system design. Our results indicate that effective irrigation planning requires carefully selecting Peff estimation methods based on growing season characteristics and local soil-water dynamics.

This study contributes to improving irrigation water management by providing quantitative evidence for the limitations of current Peff estimation methods and emphasizing the need for regionally calibrated approaches. These insights are particularly relevant for semi-arid regions where efficient use of rainfall in agriculture is crucial for sustainable water resource management.

How to cite: Demir, M. S. and Muratoglu, A.: Effective Precipitation Models in Irrigation Planning: Validation and Comparison Using the SWAT Method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2696, 2025.

EGU25-3479 | PICO | HS8.3.4

Assessing the Role of Irrigation in Groundwater Recharge in the Po Valley 

Olfa Gharsallah, Sara Cazzaniga, Enrico Antonio Chiaradia, Michele Eugenio D'Amico, Michele Rienzner, and Claudio Gandolfi

The Po Valley, Italy's largest and most economically significant region, heavily relies on intensive irrigation to sustain its very productive agriculture and meet the demand of a variety of high-value food productions. Historically, the region's agricultural success has been driven by widespread traditional surface irrigation systems, which primarily draw water from rivers and deliver it to fields through an extensive network of irrigation canals. These systems, that in many areas have been operational for centuries, not only enhance agricultural productivity but also contribute to groundwater recharge, helping to mitigate river droughts and seasonal fluctuations in surface water availability. In recent years, however, declining surface water availability and increasing reliance on groundwater extraction have already been observed, because of a higher variability of summer precipitation and decreasing winter snow accumulation in the Alps caused by climate change. Consequently, accurately estimating groundwater recharge from irrigation excess has become crucial. Despite its importance, the impact of irrigation on groundwater recharge across the Po Valley remains poorly investigated. This is mainly due to the complexity of the region's hydrological systems characterized by strong interactions between groundwater and surface water, and to the lack of reliable data covering the entire Po Valley.

In the context of MidAS-Po project, a methodological approach has been developed for the preliminary estimation of groundwater recharge through percolation from irrigated areas and seepage from irrigation channels over the whole Po Valley.

This approach involves two main steps. First, the application of a distributed agro-hydrological model, IdrAgra-Po, simulating daily soil water balance terms, including percolation from the agricultural soil layer (1 meter deep) in irrigated fields. The model was implemented over the period 2010–2022, with a spatial resolution of 0.25 km², and incorporates several input datasets: i) agro-meteorological conditions from the E-OBS dataset, produced by the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service of the European Environment Agency; ii) soil hydro-pedological data sourced from four regional databases, processed and harmonized over the study area; iii) land use data provided by the CORINE project and integrated with local information; and iv) depth of the shallow groundwater table. The second step is the estimation of groundwater recharge due to seepage from the irrigation network using a simplified methodology that relies on the data of the national agricultural information system SIGRIAN. This approach estimates channel seepage as the ratio between the measured water volumes allocated upstream of the irrigation districts into which SIGRIAN splits the Po Valley and the irrigation requirements determined by the IdrAgra-Po model for the same districts.

The resulting preliminary estimate of groundwater recharge linked to irrigation practices represents a significant step toward understanding the role of irrigation in the aquifer recharge in Po Valley. However, further investigations should be conducted to improve the quality of the input data, mainly, information on local irrigation methods and practices, land use and irrigation volumes diverted from rivers and withdrawn from aquifers.

Acknowledgment 

This contribution is presented in the framework of the MidAS-Po project, funded by Italy's Development and Cohesion Fund - FSC 2014-2020.

How to cite: Gharsallah, O., Cazzaniga, S., Chiaradia, E. A., D'Amico, M. E., Rienzner, M., and Gandolfi, C.: Assessing the Role of Irrigation in Groundwater Recharge in the Po Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3479, 2025.

EGU25-9199 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Quantifying hydrological impacts of compacted sandy subsoils using soil water flow simulations: the importance of vegetation parameterization 

Jayson Gabriel Pinza, Ona-Abeni Devos Stoffels, Robrecht Debbaut, Patrick Willems, Jan Vanderborght, Sarah Garré, and Jan Staes

Compacted subsoils affect vegetation growth and soil water balance. Numerical models help quantifying the hydrological impacts of subsoil compaction. These models are useful to evaluate measures that augment groundwater recharge in compacted soils and are important to guide proper water resource management under climate change in these soils. However, vegetation in these models is often parameterized using only limited field measurements or using relations between vegetation parameters and other variables. In this study, we show that uncertainties in vegetation parameters linked to transpiration (leaf area index [LAI]) and water uptake (root depth distribution) can significantly affect modeling outcomes. We used the HYDRUS-1D soil water flow model to simulate the water balance of experimental grass plots on the sandy soil of Belgium’s Campine Region. The compacted case has the compact subsoil at 40- to 55-cm depths while the non-compacted case underwent artificial decompaction. The models for each case were calibrated using soil moisture sensor data at two depths. We calibrated the soil water flow model for the compacted and non-compacted case considering three different vegetation scenarios that represent various reactions of canopy and root growth. Subsequently, we simulated soil water flow for different future climate scenarios. 

Our experiments reveal generally higher soil moisture content on the compacted case, suggesting subsoil compact layer’s role of promoting soil water accumulation above it. Moreover, the compacted case had lower LAI while the non-compacted case had deeper roots. Considering these canopy and root growths’ reactions in our models, results show that compaction does not always reduce deep percolation because of enhanced water uptake from the non-compacted case’s deeper roots. Therefore, while soil compaction affects both vegetation growth and soil water balance, this affected vegetation growth can further influence the water balance. Hydrological studies on (de-)compaction should dynamically incorporate vegetation growth above- and belowground under cases with compaction being present or absent. Thus, field evidence of vegetation growth and yield, often far lacking in compaction studies, is vital.

How to cite: Pinza, J. G., Devos Stoffels, O.-A., Debbaut, R., Willems, P., Vanderborght, J., Garré, S., and Staes, J.: Quantifying hydrological impacts of compacted sandy subsoils using soil water flow simulations: the importance of vegetation parameterization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9199, 2025.

The Mediterranean climate in general and particularly in Israel, has a typical unsynchronized water supply, with rain during the winter and almost no precipitation during the hot summers. Orchards require extensive water resources, in order to meet the high demand, even at peak transpiration times during summer. While Israeli farming relies on pressurized irrigation with treated wastewater, these reserves deplete during summer, and orchards face critical water shortage, which can become extreme under drought conditions.
Trees can mitigate seasonal water shortages by abiotic resiliency and the capacity to grow roots to deeper soil water horizons. However, on the one hand, the sporadic rain evens in recent years, with their higher intensity and shortening periods, cause for lower infiltration and more water loss via runoff. Therefore, there is less soil water in the spring. On the other hand, current irrigation practices do not utilize tree temporal and spatial hydraulic capabilities that could spare such valuable resources.
We search for irrigation strategies that could mitigate climatic effects by harnessing tree resiliencies and the soil-water storage capacity. We hypothesize that additional water dose during the dormant tree period in winter could sustain trees through spring and summer without waterlogging risks. Therefore, we proposed to fill the root-zone soil profile during winter, by utilizing the drip irrigation system with treated effluent water that are highly available in winter but not in summer.
We present a comparative analysis of soil water status and tree physiology acquired from multiple sensing platforms in the soil-tree-atmosphere system under three irrigation approaches: (i) hydrated, irrigated to match potential ET during summer; (ii) deficit, irrigated about half of the hydrated treatment; and (iii) winter irrigated, filling the top 2 m soil profile and deficit-irrigating trees in summer. We found that the winter irrigation mitigated the effect of water shortage from April through June. Moreover, winter-irrigated trees managed to tap into the deep profile for water uptake until August. Later, trees depleted the soil water and experienced drought stress. 
With improved hydration in spring and possible deep soil water use in summer, winter-irrigated trees increased yields by 30% after two years. Thus, winter watering orchards has the potential to sustain farming during climate shifts, and there is need to continue to investigate and improve this application.

How to cite: Kamai, T. and Sperling, O.: Irrigation targeting deep soil water storage for mitigating water supply uncertainity in orchards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9834, 2025.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, raising the risk of crop waterlogging and adversely affecting global food production and food security. To investigate this issue, we used Aquacrop-OS and the Deficit Irrigation Toolbox to simulate the yields and water balance of the irrigated winter wheat-summer maize rotation system, the primary cropping system in the North China Plain.
We considered various climate scenarios, including historical data, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projections for the 2050s, and SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2090s. To assess the risk of waterlogging and its impact on crop yields and irrigation scheduling due to climate change, we conducted statistical analyses of waterlogging events and yield variations under two irrigation conditions: full irrigation (with no water deficit) and optimized deficit irrigation under different total water limitations.
Additionally, we employed cluster analysis to evaluate the vulnerability of different soil textures to waterlogging risks. This study aims to provide theoretical guidance for optimizing agricultural water management and drainage planning in response to climate change.

How to cite: Fan, X. and Schütze, N.: Impact of changes in waterlogging due to climate change on crop rotation systems under different irrigation scheduling strategies and soil textures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10064, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10064, 2025.

EGU25-10744 | PICO | HS8.3.4

A new unsteady-state equation for the design of subsurface drainage systems 

George Kargas, Leonidas Mindrinos, and Paraskevi Londra

In this study, a new unsteady-state equation is proposed for calculating the drain spacing of subsurface drainage systems.

We consider the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation

                                                                                (1)

for  0<x<L and t>0, where L is the drain spacing (m) and t the time. Here Z(x,t) is the transient groundwater table, K is the saturated hydraulic conductivity, and S the specific yield for a homogeneous soil.

The Equation (1) is considered together with the following initial and boundary conditions:

                                                                                  (2)

where D describes the distance of the drains (placed at x=0 and x=L) from the impervious layer. The function f(x) can be constant, polynomial or trigonometric (Figure 1).

Figure 1. The geometry of the drainage problem.

Assuming f(x)=m0sin⁡(πx/L) we observe that f(0)=f(L)=0 and f'(L/2)=0 so that the boundary conditions in (2) are satisfied and in addition f (L/2)=m0 resulting in Z(L/2,0)=D+m0.

By linearizing Equation (1) we obtain a linear partial differential equation of the form ∂Z/∂t-α(∂2Z)/(∂x2 )=0 where α=K(D+m0/2)/S.

We propose to solve it using the Variational Iteration Method which provides the solution in a series form and converges after a few iterations.

Performing two iterations, we get the following equation to estimate the spacing L between the drains given the height m decrease in the middle (L/2), for a specific time interval T                                       

                                                                     (3)

From the two positive solutions of the quadratic Equation (3) for L2, the acceptable solution is given by

                                                                                         (4)

which is valid only if  2m-m0≥0⇒m≥m0/2, meaning the above formula is applicable when the height m in the middle is bigger or equal than its half initial value m0.

The comparison of the proposed equation with the widely used Glover-Dumm equation showed relative error differences smaller than 5%.

 

How to cite: Kargas, G., Mindrinos, L., and Londra, P.: A new unsteady-state equation for the design of subsurface drainage systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10744, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10744, 2025.

EGU25-11570 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Drip-irrigation treatment of an autochthonous grapevine cultivar (Vitis vinifera L, cv Piedirosso) at the footslope of Mount Vesuvius (southern Italy). Effects on grape enological characteristics and phenolic content.  

Pasquale Ruocco, Carmine Amalfitano, Boris Basile, Roberto De Mascellis, Alessandro Mataffo, Andrea Matrone, Mario Palladino, Carlo Perreca, Pasquale Scognamiglio, and Simona Vingiani

The changing environmental constraints require even more adaptations of management techniques in agriculture and the qualitative improvement of wine production represents a sector of international strategic importance. Many wine-producing areas are located in environments currently suffering, or are expected to experience in the future, water deficits that can affect grape and wine quality. In the framework of the CISAV project (financed by the University of Naples Research Funding - FRA), three years of irrigation experiments (from 2021 to 2023) have been carried out on the autochthonous Piedirosso’ cultivar (Vitis vinifera sp) planted in a vineyard of volcanic environment, at the footslope of the Somma Vesuvius Complex (Campania Region, southern Italy), in temperate Mediterranean climate. The preliminary application of geophysical and radiometric proximal soil sensors (i.e., EMI and γ-ray) allowed to state the high homogeneity of the vineyard soils and the selection of adjacent zones where to conduct and monitor irrigated and non-irrigated control treatments. A non irrigated zone characterized by lava outcropping (lava zone - LZ) was monitored separately from the remaining control zone (not irrigated - NIZ) and the treated one (irrigated zone - IZ). Three soil profiles (one for each zone) were dug up to 120 cm of depth. Young, poorly developed, very deep, loamy sand, from slightly acid to neutral the pH, and deeply rooted are the soils. Soil properties suggest behavior as excessively drained and scarcely retaining water and nutrients for the plant supply. In the IZ, 50% of the calculated crop evapotranspiration (ETc) has been returned to the plants by drip irrigation system in post-veraison until harvest. By a meteorological point of view, 2022 was the year with the highest Huglin bioclimatic index (2768), the rainiest veraison-harvest period (206 mm) but also that with the highest calculated water deficit (-225 mm). Measures of midday stem water potential (MSWP) and stomatal conductance (gs) performed in pre- and post-veraison until harvest were consistent with an improved health status of the plants during the irrigation treatment over the 3 years, since the MSWP and the gs of the IZ were always higher than those measured for the NIZ vines. The response of the grapevines in terms of grape quality parameters was compared between treatments and over the years. The irrigation treatment produced significantly different grape characteristics (i.e. berry weight and volume, total soluble solids content, pH, titratable acidity) and phenolic compounds content at harvest (i.e., anthocyanins, tannins and total phenols in skin and seeds), and significantly improved fruit yield, allowing the grapes to achieve the quality parameters required by the “Lacryma Christi del Vesuvio DOP” production protocol.

How to cite: Ruocco, P., Amalfitano, C., Basile, B., De Mascellis, R., Mataffo, A., Matrone, A., Palladino, M., Perreca, C., Scognamiglio, P., and Vingiani, S.: Drip-irrigation treatment of an autochthonous grapevine cultivar (Vitis vinifera L, cv Piedirosso) at the footslope of Mount Vesuvius (southern Italy). Effects on grape enological characteristics and phenolic content. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11570, 2025.

EGU25-15227 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Hydroclimatic Parameter Shifts and Their Impact on Maize Production: A Multi-Decade Assessment in Akşehir/Türkiye 

Hüsamettin Nas, Veysi Kartal, Muhammed Sungur Demir, and Abdullah Muratoglu

The intensifying effects of climate change on soil hydrology and agricultural water use require comprehensive understanding for sustainable maize production, a key crop in Türkiye's agricultural system. This study combines empirical trend analysis with AquaCrop model simulations under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario to investigate the complex interactions between climate change, soil-water dynamics, and agricultural water footprint (WF) of maize cultivation from 2004 to 2022 in a major agricultural region (Akşehir) of Türkiye, providing critical insights for irrigation management and food security.

Through Mann-Kendall tests and Sen's slope estimators, coupled with AquaCrop model simulations, we identified considerable climate change-induced shifts in hydroclimatic parameters affecting soil-water relationships. Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) showed a significant decreasing trend (τ = -0.43) with a decline of 2.7 mm/year, while crop evapotranspiration (ETc) exhibited an even stronger declining pattern (τ = -0.58) with a decrease of 2.8 mm/year. These trends occurred against a backdrop of significantly increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration (τ = 1.000) with an annual increase of 2.1 ppm/year.

The analysis of WF components revealed promising trends for sustainable water management under changing climate conditions. The unit blue WF showed a significant decreasing trend (τ = -0.35) with an annual reduction of 4.27 m³/ton, indicating improved irrigation efficiency, while the unit total WF demonstrated a strong declining trend (τ = -0.58) with a decrease of 2.7 m³/ton/year. Although the unit green WF showed a slight increasing trend (τ = 0.17) with an annual increase of 1.17 m³/ton, this shift from blue to green water use suggests a positive transition toward more sustainable water management practices in a changing climate. This favorable redistribution of water sources, combined with improved irrigation efficiency, has supported agricultural productivity, as evidenced by the marginally significant increasing trend in maize production (τ = 0.39).

While these findings demonstrate successful adaptation of maize cultivation systems to changing climatic conditions in our study region under the RCP 4.5 scenario, broader country-level and global analyses are essential to understand geographic variations in water productivity and potential shifts in agricultural suitability under climate change. These spatially explicit insights would be valuable for developing targeted adaptation strategies and ensuring sustainable food production across different agro-ecological zones. Our results highlight the importance of regional-scale studies in understanding climate-water-crop interactions and emphasize the need for integrated approaches to enhance agricultural water productivity while maintaining environmental sustainability in the face of accelerating climate change.

*Key Words:* Climate change, water footprint, AquaCrop model, soil hydrology, maize production

How to cite: Nas, H., Kartal, V., Demir, M. S., and Muratoglu, A.: Hydroclimatic Parameter Shifts and Their Impact on Maize Production: A Multi-Decade Assessment in Akşehir/Türkiye, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15227, 2025.

EGU25-17305 | ECS | PICO | HS8.3.4

Advancing groundwater recharge estimation at the field scale: spatiotemporal dynamics of soil moisture and simulated 1D water fluxes at a cosmic-ray neutron sensing cluster site in northeast Germany 

Lena Scheiffele, Katya Dimitrova Petrova, Matthias Munz, Till Francke, Maik Heistermann, Elodie Marret-Sicard, and Sascha Oswald

Brandenburg is one of the driest regions in Germany and heavily relies on groundwater resources for both drinking water supply and irrigated agriculture. The state is already experiencing declining groundwater levels, and climate change is expected to further exacerbate the situation. For sustainable management of groundwater resources, the groundwater recharge rate is a key parameter. However, its quantification remains a challenge since it cannot be directly measured at the field scale.

In this study, we utilize daily data from multiple cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS), which enable non-invasive measurement of soil moisture in the near-surface root zone on a hectare scale to calibrate a soil hydrological model (HYDRUS-1D) and derive downward water flows below the root zone as an approximation of groundwater recharge.

For this purpose, we use a unique dataset collected over more than five years at a highly instrumented agricultural research site near Potsdam, Brandenburg. The ~10 ha site, featuring a variety of agricultural plots, extends along a gentle hillslope towards a lake above a Pleistocene, unconfined aquifer with a groundwater table depth ranging from 1 to 10 meters. Core of the instrumentation is a cluster of eight continuously operated CRNS combined with more than 25 point-scale soil moisture profile probes measuring to depths of up to 1 m. A wide range of additional measurements, including soil texture, hydraulic properties, continuous soil moisture measurements at depth, and groundwater level monitoring, provide a robust foundation for validating the model and capturing the relevant hydrological processes at the site.

In various simulation experiments, we evaluate the added value of using different soil moisture products for model calibration. To evaluate long-term trends and variability in groundwater recharge, we run the calibrated model with over 50 years of historical weather data. We analyze changes in groundwater recharge rates under varying climatic conditions and discuss the associated uncertainties, particularly in the context of the site’s tight water balance.

How to cite: Scheiffele, L., Dimitrova Petrova, K., Munz, M., Francke, T., Heistermann, M., Marret-Sicard, E., and Oswald, S.: Advancing groundwater recharge estimation at the field scale: spatiotemporal dynamics of soil moisture and simulated 1D water fluxes at a cosmic-ray neutron sensing cluster site in northeast Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17305, 2025.

EGU25-17423 | PICO | HS8.3.4

Simulating Controlled Drainage with Subirrigation at an Experimental Agricultural Field in the Netherlands to Investigate Irrigation Water Effectiveness 

Jelte de Bruin, Martine van der Ploeg, Janou Bonné, Nikola Rakonjac, Ruud Bartholomeus, Janine de Wit, and Syed Mustafa

Climatic extremes, such as prolonged periods of summer droughts, alternated with wet winters pose a significant challenge for farmers. Uncertainty in water availability over the growing season forces farmers to make management decisions that are not always favorable for optimized crop yield. Under the EU project FARMWISE, a large variety of management strategies are evaluated that could help farmers mitigate future climatic extremes.

This research focuses on a novel system, consisting of controlled drainage with subirrigation (CD-SI), that allows farmers more control on water drainage and irrigation from their field. The system relies on subterranean drainage lines installed under the agricultural fields. These drainage lines are connected to a control pit, allowing the system to be dual used, for both drainage and irrigation using an external water source. The system is under evaluation at a field site in America in the Netherlands, where soil moisture and groundwater heads are monitored at a field equipped with an CD-SI system and at an adjoining reference field. Previous studies at the field site have shown a positive effect on water availability for crops under irrigation conditions. However, it is uncertain what the overall effectiveness is of the supplied irrigation water. The main aim of this study is to determine the division of supplied irrigation water within the CD-SI system to all parts of the water balance, including root water uptake, evapotranspiration and percolation to deep groundwater, and quantify potential losses.

A physics-based 3D integrated surface-subsurface hydrological is developed and calibrated to simulate the functioning of the CD-SI system using HydroGeoSphere. Preliminary model results show simulated the groundwater dynamics that agree with the observations both at the field with the CD-SI system as well as the reference field, confirming the difference in groundwater dynamics that are observed between the observation and reference field. Research into the overall effectiveness of the supplied irrigation water and division between the various elements of the water balance is ongoing.

How to cite: de Bruin, J., van der Ploeg, M., Bonné, J., Rakonjac, N., Bartholomeus, R., de Wit, J., and Mustafa, S.: Simulating Controlled Drainage with Subirrigation at an Experimental Agricultural Field in the Netherlands to Investigate Irrigation Water Effectiveness, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17423, 2025.

EGU25-244 | Orals | HS8.3.5 | Highlight

Dry roots? What crop water relations tell us about irrigation management 

Thorsten Knipfer

Crop performance under limited soil water availability depends on a successful coordination of physiological processes at root, stem, and leaf level. This includes efficient stomatal regulation, root modifications and prevention of xylem embolism. In woody crops, drought-induced mortality is predominantly linked to xylem hydraulic failure by gas embolism blocking water transport from roots to leaves – but does this matter in a managed agricultural system? In this presentation, I will show experimental data collected under greenhouse and field conditions on the sequence of physiological and anatomical events in response to progressive drought stress. This includes a demonstration of applications of X-ray computed tomography to study leaf, stem and root responses to water stress in hazelnut and poplar. I will discuss the relevance of data in the context of precision irrigation management.

How to cite: Knipfer, T.: Dry roots? What crop water relations tell us about irrigation management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-244, 2025.

EGU25-316 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Integrated Hydraulic and Biomechanical Strategies of Grapevine Fine Roots for Adaptation to Aridity and Salinity 

Italo Cuneo, Thorsten Knipfer, and Cesar Barrientos-Sanhueza

Grapevines from the hyper-arid Atacama Desert possess unique hydraulic and biomechanical root adaptations that confer resilience to extreme drought and salinity. Here, we provide insights into root hydraulic properties, tissue–water relations, and mechanical traits to investigate resilience strategies in naturalized genotypes (R-65 and R-70) and commercial rootstocks (101-14Mgt and 110-R). Using root pressure probes, uniaxial tensile tests, pressure-volume analyses, and fluorescence microscopy, we evaluated the effects of salinity (0–250 mM NaCl) and severe drought on fine root functionality. The results reveal that the hyper-arid genotypes integrate superior hydraulic conductivity, elastic-plastic mechanical behavior, and reduced cortical damage to withstand high salinity and water stress. Although R-65 and R-70 maintained larger root diameters, higher water content, and stable osmolality under extreme salinity and drought conditions, commercial rootstocks showed increased stiffness, significant cortical lacunae formation, and reduced recovery capacity. These responses align with xerophytic adaptations that safeguard fine root functionality through enhanced energy dissipation, structural flexibility, and water retention, thereby minimizing permanent damage. Complementary hydraulic and biomechanical traits are critical for maintaining fine root integrity and stress resilience in hyperarid environments. This integrated analysis of hydraulic and mechanical traits highlights the potential of Atacama-adapted genotypes as genetic resources for breeding resilient crops. These findings contribute to the development of sustainable agricultural practices in saline- and drought-prone regions.

How to cite: Cuneo, I., Knipfer, T., and Barrientos-Sanhueza, C.: Integrated Hydraulic and Biomechanical Strategies of Grapevine Fine Roots for Adaptation to Aridity and Salinity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-316, 2025.

EGU25-1117 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Family Ties: Root-Root Communications Within and Outside the Family (Solanaceae to Fabaceae) 

Madalitso Miti, Aye Nyein Ko, Omer Falik, and Shimon Rachmilevitch

Earlier studies have shown that plants may use their root systems to communicate with other plants, this enables them to recognize and react to genetic relatedness and differentiate between self and non-self roots. Our ground-breaking study has shown that crops in the Solanaceae family, particularly bell pepper and tomatoes (cherry tomato and field tomato), can communicate through the root systems based on their degrees of relatedness (DOR). The study examined the effects of root-root communication on physiological and metabolic aspects in tomatoes and bell pepper plants, and the results showed that as DOR decreased, root growth and respiration increased in L-DOR plants with lower organic carbon and protein levels, suggesting that genetic relatedness plays a key role in root communication within the Solanaceae. Building on these findings, our objective was to know how plants respond differently to plants that are not genetically related or are outside their family. We examined the physiological and morphological changes in response to neighbor relatedness within the Solanaceae family (cherry tomato (C) and bell pepper (B)) and between the Solanaceae and Fabaceae family (pea (P)). Nine combinations were studied, examining self (C, B, P) and non-self-interactions (CC, CB, CP, BB, BP, PP). Two separate experiments were conducted; using rhizoslides, a paper-based growth system, and a pot experiment with a four-pot design with a split root system. The results demonstrated that cherry tomato increased plant height, stem diameter, chlorophyll content, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and root respiration parameters when paired with bell pepper. In contrast, when paired with cherry tomato, bell pepper exhibited decreases in all these parameters, indicating that bell peppers are beneficial neighbors to cherry tomato, whereas cherry tomato are costly neighbors to bell pepper. However, both cherry tomato and bell pepper performed better when grown with a neighbor from outside the family, pea. Pea showed an increase in all parameters when grown alone or with a Solanaceae neighbor but decreased when grown with a closely related neighbor. By understanding natural plant communication networks from both inside and outside of the Solanaceae family, root-to-root communication may result in improved agricultural techniques that increase crop resilience and yield.

How to cite: Miti, M., Ko, A. N., Falik, O., and Rachmilevitch, S.: Family Ties: Root-Root Communications Within and Outside the Family (Solanaceae to Fabaceae), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1117, 2025.

EGU25-3352 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

An automated minirhizotron system for in situ imaging of GFP expression in roots 

Xinze Xu, Ofer Ben-Tovim, Simon Barak, Jhonathan E. Ephrath, and Naftali Lazarovitch

Roots, as the hidden half of plants, are the main organ absorbing water and nutrients from the soil. Yet, research into plant roots has lagged behind investigations of aboveground plant organs due to the difficulty of continuous monitoring of phenotypic changes in root architecture underground in a non-destructive manner. In this study, we developed a novel minirhizotron system based on common components of the fluorescence microscope. We examined the possibility of a pilot system for imaging green fluorescent protein (GFP) expression in roots within rhizoslides and glass containers and tested different parameters in order to achieve the best fit for imaging. Our results demonstrate that imaging GFP expression in roots provides a clearer visualization of the root system, effectively increasing an observable number of roots by minimizing interference from the soil compared to RGB images. We further miniaturized the imaging system and integrated it into the minirhizotron. The developed fluorescence minirhizotron is fully automated, high-throughput, and non-invasive allowing us to detect clear, continuous, in situ GFP fluorescence in roots. It is applicable across a wide range of scenarios. Currently, our ongoing work focuses on producing stress-inducible GFP expression in transgenic tobacco lines to enable rapid and early detection of plants under stress in a non-destructive manner. This study could help in distinguishing the roots of different plants and provide a potential contribution to breeding plants or in developing agro-techniques to save water, increase nutrient uptake, and improve crop yields in the era of climate change.

How to cite: Xu, X., Ben-Tovim, O., Barak, S., Ephrath, J. E., and Lazarovitch, N.: An automated minirhizotron system for in situ imaging of GFP expression in roots, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3352, 2025.

EGU25-4311 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

phenoPET: Observing Carbon Transport within Individual Plants 

Matthias Streun, Benedikt Scherer, Ralf Metzner, Gregor Huber, Daniel Pflugfelder, Antonia Chlubek, Robert Koller, Claudia Knief, Peter Wüstner, Egon Zimmermann, and Ghaleb Natour

Individual plants vary in their ability to respond to environmental changes. For dynamic responses in plants, long-distance carbon (C) transport is required to support growth. Therefore, investigating C allocation in plants is crucial for developing a mechanistic understanding of plant functioning. However, little is known about short-term assimilate transport patterns and velocities, as literature values from singular and invasive measurements are hard to interpret for a highly susceptible system. To study the transport of photo assimilates within plants, we developed phenoPET, a plant dedicated positron emission tomography (PET) scanner. While PET scanners have been widely used in medical science since decades, their use in plant research is less common. For tracing the transport, carbon dioxide containing the short-lived positron-emitting isotope carbon-11 (11C) is applied as 11CO2 to a single leaf or the whole canopy of a living plant. The plant fixes CO2 and the 11C is subsequently transported in the form of photosynthates towards C sinks, e.g. through leaf and stem towards the root system. The decaying tracer can then be located inside the plant by detecting its radiation. To this end, the living plant is placed in the field-of-view of the scanner, which is a volume with a diameter of 18 cm and a height of 20 cm. A lifting table can move the scanner vertically and allows for repeated measurements of different regions of interest along the plant axis. The phenoPET system is located in a climate chamber equipped with LED panels in order to create defined environmental conditions.

In our presentation, we will highlight our workflow for gathering quantitative data on C tracer transport velocities between different plant types, single plants, for different plant parts, during a day, and over days. We believe that this will provide new insights into the functioning and dynamics of C transport processes in in the plant-soil system.

How to cite: Streun, M., Scherer, B., Metzner, R., Huber, G., Pflugfelder, D., Chlubek, A., Koller, R., Knief, C., Wüstner, P., Zimmermann, E., and Natour, G.: phenoPET: Observing Carbon Transport within Individual Plants, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4311, 2025.

EGU25-4453 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Curtis and The Three Beres: investigating early seedling root-soil interface traits in modern and landrace barley genotypes 

Sean Graham, Timothy George, Maria Marin, Ashish Malik, and Paul Hallett

It is not known whether modern crop breeding lost valuable root-soil interface traits present in landraces beneficial to soil-carbon storage, nutrient and water use efficiency, and remediation of degraded soil structure. Landraces are defined as crop genotypes which are locally adapted to environmental and management conditions. These ancient cultivars may provide a valuable source of genetic diversity and agronomic traits which can be bred into higher-yielding modern cultivars to improve yield stability under lower input or stressed conditions. Within the Highlands of Scotland, the “Bere” barley landrace is a multipurpose crop with cultural importance, early maturity, and evidence of advantageous root-soil adaptations to micronutrient deficiency.

In this study, three Bere genotypes and the modern barley cultivar KWS Curtis were grown under highly controlled conditions to evaluate genotype differences at the root-soil interface. In a seedling assay, plants were grown in growth cabinets for 4 days in sandy loam soil packed to a defined bulk density and water contents. This rapid and low-cost methodology demonstrated a high level of reproducibility in rhizosheath size and root traits, with no significant difference between root hair length and root system length between experiments. Additionally, two of the three Bere landraces were found to have a significantly larger rhizosheath (P=0.001) than the modern cultivar KWS Curtis at the earliest stage of seedling growth (GS 10, first leaf emergence): 39% and 19% increase for “Unst” and “Challoner” vs KWS Curtis, respectively. Conversely, KWS Curtis had much greater (P<0.001) above ground biomass than the three Bere genotypes with “Unst” having a 93% lower above ground biomass than KWS Curtis. This suggests that the modern cultivar favoured above-ground allocation of resources over root exudation in early seedling growth.

This study serves as a platform to investigate fine-scale rhizosphere characteristics and spatial distribution of soil modification through root hair-exudate-microbial interactions. The screening approach provides a rapid assay to select genotypes with favourable traits from seedling characteristics, which will be verified with more mature plants in future research.

How to cite: Graham, S., George, T., Marin, M., Malik, A., and Hallett, P.: Curtis and The Three Beres: investigating early seedling root-soil interface traits in modern and landrace barley genotypes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4453, 2025.

EGU25-4821 | Orals | HS8.3.5

Is there anything new about determining the root-zone water-storage capacity over large areas? 

Nunzio Romano, Caterina Mazzitelli, and Paolo Nasta

Root-zone water-storage capacity (Sr) represents the maximum value of soil-water stored in the active soil profile, and available for vegetation growth. The mapping of Sr over relatively large spatial scales necessitates the assumption of simplified functions and characteristics of an agroecosystem. Currently, Sr is still determined by resorting only to soil attributes, such as the plant-available water (PAW) that is based on the concepts of field capacity and permanent wilting, as well as on a static determination of the depth of the uniform soil profile.

In this study, we propose a novel approach to identify Sr as an indicator of soil-vegetation functioning (hereinafter referred to as Sr,i), depending not only on soil properties but also on vegetation characteristics and climatic regimes. The integrated approach proposed in this study accounts for the following two factors: (i) the entire shape of the soil-water retention function, which is much more informative of the amount of energy required to remove soil-water for vegetation needs, as well as (ii) the maximum value of an effective rooting depth depending on both local weather condition and land use.

Our contribution to this session consists of two parts:

- A preliminary part takes advantage of a detailed field drainage experiment and aims at demonstrating the superior performance of the Sr,i indicator compared with PAW;

- The subsequent part discusses the result of mapping Sr,i on a regional scale.

We show that Sr,i, together with other single or compound indicators, can effectively contribute to gaining a better understanding of agroecosystem’s vulnerability to drought. Moreover, employing a probabilistic framework, Sr,i helps identify the most likely Priority Intervention Areas (PIAs) that require the implementation of tailored management strategies to enhance their potential resilience.

This study was partly carried out within the “Agritech National Research Center” and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU [Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR) – Missione 4 Componente 2, Investimento 1.4 – D.D. 1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022]. The outcomes of this research are within the action Spoke #3, Task 3.2.1, “Solutions for soil quality assessment and protection”. This presentation reflects only the authors’ views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

How to cite: Romano, N., Mazzitelli, C., and Nasta, P.: Is there anything new about determining the root-zone water-storage capacity over large areas?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4821, 2025.

EGU25-6021 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

The significance of plant hydraulic parameters for modeling carbon and water fluxes across European climate zones and PFTs with CLM5 

Juan C. Baca Cabrera, Fernand Eloundou, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Andrea Schnepf, Jan Vanderborght, and Guillaume Lobet

Plants are increasingly exposed to water stress under climate change, posing significant challenges for accurate simulation of carbon and water fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Most land surface models simulate the regulation of water and carbon fluxes in response to soil moisture stress through empirical soil hydraulic schemes. However, these schemes often introduce significant uncertainties in water and carbon simulations. To address this, the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) introduced a plant hydraulic stress routine that explicitly models water transport through vegetation via a hydraulic framework, improving the representation of vegetation water potential, root water uptake, and plant water stress1. However, including plant hydraulics introduces additional parameters that are difficult to constrain due to limited field data and high variability. Understanding the influence of these plant hydraulic parameters on water and carbon flux modeling is crucial for model improvement and prediction accuracy.

In this study, we used a parameter perturbation approach to investigate the role of plant hydraulic parameters at 14 experimental sites in Europe, representing diverse plant functional types (PFTs) and climate zones. Using CLM5, we performed 128 ensemble simulations per site, systematically varying three key hydraulic parameters: plant- and root-segment maximum conductance (kmax and krmax) and water potential at 50% loss of segment conductance (psi50). The perturbation ranges were informed by previous parameter perturbation experiments2,3. We evaluated: (i) how the model represented plant hydraulic dynamics (i.e., vegetation water status and plant-segment conductances), (ii) the sensitivity of carbon and water fluxes—gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET)—to parameter variation, and (iii) model performance compared to in-situ observations.

The results showed that the model successfully captured seasonal variations in plant-segment conductance and vegetation water potential, which were reflected in the seasonal dynamics of GPP and ET. However, at drought-prone sites, the model overestimated ET reductions during summer compared to observations, due to a steep decline in root-segment conductance and stomatal closure. This highlights the need for improved parameterization of psi50 and krmax to better represent plant responses to extreme drought. In addition, ensemble simulations revealed substantial sensitivity of GPP and ET to parameter perturbations, with variations up to 50% in GPP and 30% in ET depending on PFT and climate zone. These results underscore the importance of considering the variability in plant hydraulic properties, particularly kmax and krmax, which span several orders of magnitude.

To address these uncertainties, the next steps of this work will focus on refining the parameterization by integrating data on plant hydraulic traits from existing databases4,5. This approach will help constrain parameter ranges across ecosystems and climate zones, particularly for drought-prone sites. Improving the representation of plant hydraulic traits will enhance predictions of ecosystem responses to water stress and the reliability of land surface models under current and future climate scenarios.

References

  • 1Kennedy et al. (2019). 10.1029/2018MS001500
  • 2Kennedy et al. (2024). 10.22541/essoar.172745082.24089296/v1
  • 3Eloundou et al. (2024). 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16086
  • 4Kattge et al. (2020). 10.22541/10.1111/gcb.14904
  • 5Baca Cabrera et al. (2024). 10.1002/pld3.582

How to cite: Baca Cabrera, J. C., Eloundou, F., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Schnepf, A., Vanderborght, J., and Lobet, G.: The significance of plant hydraulic parameters for modeling carbon and water fluxes across European climate zones and PFTs with CLM5, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6021, 2025.

EGU25-9480 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Root simulations in a biogeochemical model and impacts on nitrogen fluxes 

Carolin Boos, Thuy Huu Nguyen, Gaochao Cai, Shehan Morandage, David Kraus, Edwin Haas, and Ralf Kiese

Plants are the main connection between soil and atmosphere. Below ground, nitrogen, carbon, and water fluxes are mediated by roots, which therefore strongly influence nitrogen, carbon, and water distributions throughout the soil profile and impact, for instance, if conditions favorable for denitrification occur or not. However, the representation of roots in biogeochemical models is often strongly simplified, allowing only for a static prescribed root development. Further, the root system is normally not taken into account during model calibration, due to a lack of measurements. This disregard of roots prevents model veracity. In this study, we evaluate three model settings of the biogeochemical model framework LandscapeDNDC and compare them to site measurements of winter wheat and maize on a stony and a silty soil to illuminate and quantify these shortcomings. As a baseline, the model is calibrated regarding above ground parameters and measurements only. These results are compared to calibrations on above and below ground parameters and measurements with two different root models. One static root model and one dynamic root model proposed by Jones et al. in 1991. The calibrated settings yield overall comparable qualities of fit for the above ground properties. As expected, the root depth and the root length density are better represent after calibration. The best qualities of fit in the validation are relative root mean square errors (coefficients of determination) of 0.76 (0.36) and 0.39 (0.86) for the root length density and root depth, respectively. At last, for the best-fit model run of each setting, the nitrogen balance is analysed. On the stony soil, the simulated nitrate leaching from the baseline is 80 % smaller than in a setting where the roots were properly calibrated. In line, the plant nitrogen uptake was on average 40 kgNha-1 bigger in the baseline compared to the other settings. These large impacts on the nitrogen cycle illustrate the need for joined measurements of roots and nitrogen fluxes.

How to cite: Boos, C., Nguyen, T. H., Cai, G., Morandage, S., Kraus, D., Haas, E., and Kiese, R.: Root simulations in a biogeochemical model and impacts on nitrogen fluxes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9480, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9480, 2025.

EGU25-9772 | Orals | HS8.3.5 | Highlight

Effect of ecosystem structure on spatial distribution of root water uptake in a grassland and forest ecosystem 

Anke Hildebrandt, Gökben Demir, Marcus Guderle, Sven Westermann, Christine Fischer-Bedtke, Johanna Clara Metzger, Andrew Guswa, Ruth-Kristina Magh, and Christiane Roscher

The spatial distribution of root water uptake at the ecosystem scale is difficult to assess, and therefore our knowledge of how ecosystem-related and abiotic factors affect root water uptake and its patterns is still limited. This presentation summarizes the results of observations of root water uptake in two contrasting vegetation types: grassland and forest along community diversity gradients.

Based on field studies in both a grassland and a forest system, we investigated how root water uptake changes with ecosystem assembly. We used a water balance method to estimate (a) vertical profiles of root water uptake in grassland systems and (b) horizontal distribution of water uptake in forests, in both cases along species diversity gradients. In both cases, we find that species diversity strongly affects the location and increases the magnitude of root water uptake. In grasslands, the relationship can be directly linked to deeper uptake by species with deep root systems and higher water requirements, suggesting complementarity in resource use. In forests, uptake is enhanced in the main root zone where both the number of tree species and basal area are high, although the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. 

Overall, our observations show an enhanced capacity for water uptake in diverse ecosystems.

In the future, further insights will be gained by combining techniques for assessing root water uptake at the individual and ecosystem scale together with plant and soil hydraulic assessments.

How to cite: Hildebrandt, A., Demir, G., Guderle, M., Westermann, S., Fischer-Bedtke, C., Metzger, J. C., Guswa, A., Magh, R.-K., and Roscher, C.: Effect of ecosystem structure on spatial distribution of root water uptake in a grassland and forest ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9772, 2025.

EGU25-10254 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Water management strategies for lettuce cultivation in soil and soilless systems under controlled conditions 

Nikolett Éva Kiss, Andrea Pásztorné Orosz, Andrea Szabó, Sándor Kun, János Tamás, and Attila Nagy

The growing demand for sustainable food production requires innovative farming techniques that optimise water use and minimise environmental impacts. This experiment tested the cultivation of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) in a greenhouse environment. Two cropping systems were tested, a soil-based system with a humus-sand soil and a perlite system. Two different levels of water management were applied for the soil-based system, these were 70% and 90% of the minimum water capacity (WCmin). Both the soil and perlite systems were irrigated daily to ensure adequate water supply. The nutrient supply methods included nutrient solution and compost treatments in addition to the control group.

Key growth parameters including plant height, leaf number, head diameter, Fv/Fm fluorescence ratio and SPAD values were monitored weekly for five weeks. In addition, biomass (shoot and root mass), root length, and chlorophyll and carotenoid content were determined at the end of the experiment to evaluate the overall productivity and physiological status of the plants.

The results showed that in perlite-based systems, plant growth was faster, while soil-based cultivation showed more stable growth, especially the 70% WCmin treatment resulted in a more balanced growth compared to the 90% WCmin treatment. Based on nutrient replenishment, it can be said that nutrient-based treatments significantly increased plant biomass, especially wet head weight and chlorophyll content.  Statistical analyses confirmed the differences between treatments, highlighting the effects of both nutrient supply and water management strategies on plant growth.

The results underline the importance of optimising water use in closed environment cropping systems. By contributing to the development of sustainable water management strategies for lettuce production, this study is in line with the main objectives of the EU Green Deal and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. These results provide practical insights into efficient water use, nutrient use and plant physiological responses under different growing conditions, pointing the way towards more sustainable, resilient food production systems.

The research presented in the article was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.

How to cite: Kiss, N. É., Pásztorné Orosz, A., Szabó, A., Kun, S., Tamás, J., and Nagy, A.: Water management strategies for lettuce cultivation in soil and soilless systems under controlled conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10254, 2025.

EGU25-10903 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Optimization of Irrigation and Potassium Application for Improved Jujube Production in arid Northwest China 

Chenzhi Yao, Jingwei Wu, Chenyao Guo, and Shuai Qin

The arid Northwest of China is the main production area of China's jujube, where reasonable irrigation and fertilization strategies is key to improving the quality and production of jujube trees. While current research primarily focuses on the effects of different irrigation regimes on jujube growth, there is a lack of systematic studies on the relationship between potassium application amount and jujube growth and metabolism, making it challenging to provide clear guidance for jujube fertilization strategies. This study investigated the effects of different potassium application amount (240, 180, 120, and 0 kg·hm⁻²) on the growth and production efficiency of jujube trees. The results showed that the application of potassium fertilizer improved water use efficiency of jujube trees, significantly promoted their growth, and increased transpiration rate and production efficiency with higher potassium application amount. The water-potassium transport model in the root zone and the production model of jujube trees under drip irrigation with potassium application were calibrated and validated using experimental data from four potassium application treatments. Nine orthogonal numerical experiments were designed with the irrigation volume and potassium application amount as variables. The results revealed that the irrigation volume and potassium application amount significantly influenced the growth of jujube trees (P < 0.05), with a notable interaction effect between the two. When the potassium application rate was 240 kg·hm⁻² and the irrigation volume was 180 mm, the water use efficiency of the jujube trees was optimized, aligning better with the water-saving and high-production goals of the Xinjiang region. The maximum root-uptake radius of jujube trees for soil water and potassium was 50–70 cm. Within this radius, the potassium concentration significantly decreases with increasing distance from the root system, while beyond the absorption radius, potassium infiltrates vertically into deeper soil layers along with irrigation water. An empirical formula relating the transpiration rate and production of jujube trees to irrigation volume and potassium application amount under drip irrigation conditions were established in this study, offering guidance for irrigation and potassium application strategies in arid regions.

How to cite: Yao, C., Wu, J., Guo, C., and Qin, S.: Optimization of Irrigation and Potassium Application for Improved Jujube Production in arid Northwest China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10903, 2025.

EGU25-11631 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Rhizosphere Liquid Architecture 

Pascal Benard, Patrick Duddek, Florian Stoll, Laura Waldner, Norbert Kirchgessner, Goran Lovric, and Andrea Carminati

In the rhizosphere, all transport processes considered fundamental in regulating resource availability and accessibility for plants and microorganisms are controlled by water retention and its temporal dynamics in the soil pore space, the rhizosphere liquid architecture (RLA). As the soil dries, root water and nutrient uptake becomes increasingly limited as the cross-sectional area and connectivity of the pore water declines. At the same time, diffusive transport ceases, negatively affecting root exudate transport and limiting microbial activity as enzyme diffusion and activity drop. The extent to which soil structural and biological processes influence local water retention and, in turn, related transport processes in the rhizosphere remains a challenging task. This study aimed to elucidate the effect of root growth and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) on soil water retention in the rhizosphere of maize. High-resolution X-ray tomography was used to capture gradients in water distribution as a function of rhizosphere age and distance from the root surface. This combination of techniques allows distinguishing between soil structure versus primarily biologically induced modification. This study is a step toward a better understanding of the feedbacks between plants, microorganisms, and soil in controlling rhizosphere transport properties in this complex process aimed at optimizing resource availability and acquisition.

How to cite: Benard, P., Duddek, P., Stoll, F., Waldner, L., Kirchgessner, N., Lovric, G., and Carminati, A.: Rhizosphere Liquid Architecture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11631, 2025.

EGU25-11748 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

A novel rhizotron platform to evaluate root plastic responses to soil water heterogeneity 

Tian-Jiao Wei, Xavier Draye, and Mathieu Javaux

It is commonly thought that plastic responses of root hydraulics and morphology to water availability have evolved to help plants face the heterogeneous soil water availability under unpredictable climatic conditions. However, quantifying these responses is an experimental challenge, as water uptake is continuously affecting root environment. The objective of this study is to investigate the structural and functional plasticity of roots under soil water heterogeneity from the plant down to the organ scales. We developed a novel rhizotron platform comprising 15 independent rhizotrons, each equipped with 9 hydraulically isolated compartments (three rows × three columns) and individual control units that allow for imposing constant spatial moisture patterns or differing water potentials in each compartment while monitoring local water consumption with minute time resolution and tracking root growth and development. A trial was made in which maize plants (cv. B104) grew in the rhizotron platform during four weeks at constant and homogeneous water potential, followed by a fifth week during which three water potentials were imposed. Morphological and hydraulic root responses to these different levels of water availability have been observed using manual root annotation and continuous leaf psychrometer measurements. These results allowed us to compute the elongation of main and lateral roots and real-time changes of the transpiration and local water consumption. This platform will be instrumental to dissect the complex response of maize plants in heterogeneous and variable soil water environments.

How to cite: Wei, T.-J., Draye, X., and Javaux, M.: A novel rhizotron platform to evaluate root plastic responses to soil water heterogeneity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11748, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11748, 2025.

EGU25-12041 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Exploring the Hidden Interplay: Moisture and Vegetation Dynamics in the Nabkhas of Omani Coastal Dunes 

Afrah Al Shukaili, Anvar Kacimov, Said Al Ismaili, Malak Al Ghabshi, and Hilal Al Mamari

Soil moisture content is a critical factor in the hydrological cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, especially in sandy environments. The spatial variation in soil water content is influenced by both dynamic and static factors. To understand the ecohydrology of desert environments, a detailed analysis of the vadose zone and topsoil in coastal dunes is essential. This study focuses on the soil hydrology of coastal mini-dunes (Nabkhas) in the Al-Hail North area of Oman, particularly examining moisture redistribution following a 13 mm rainfall event. The area, characterized by a sabkha landform with a shallow water table (approximately 1.4 meters below the surface), is interspersed by an array of Nabkhas. The length and height of three Nabkhas (N1, N2, and N3) were measured. Native plants were present in all Nabkhas: Haloxylon salicornicum in N1 (alive) and N3 (dead), and Salvadora persica in N2. Soil samples were collected from the interdune and Nabkha cores for grain size analysis. Decagon EC-05 sensors were installed at depths of 0 and 20 cm in the vertical profiles of N1, N2, and N3 to monitor diurnal variations in volumetric water content (ϴv).

A significant increase in ϴv in the top sensor immediately after the rain event was detected, while the bottom sensor showed a minimal increase over time. The top sensor's ϴv peaked at 0.1 m³/m³ on the last day of the rain event, then decreased to 0.054 m³/m³ after 8 days due to evaporation. The bottom sensor's ϴv reached a maximum of 0.58 m³/m³ on the final recording day. The spatial and temporal variation in ϴv is also influenced by vapor condensation from humid air and around native shrubs. High moisture content in the top layers of dunes significantly impacts vegetation patterns.

Another field investigation examined soil moisture variability using excavated profiles at four locations, including three sites under Nabkhas and a vegetation-free control plot. Analysis of volumetric water content demonstrated clear moisture stratification throughout the profiles. Near-surface soil layers showed minimal moisture levels, consistent with the residual water content (θr) typical in desert sandy soils. Moving downward through the profile, a significant increase in moisture content was detected, with lower horizons reaching near-saturation conditions (θs). This enhanced water retention in deeper layers was associated with both finer soil textures and water table influence. Such moisture-rich deeper soil zones appear to provide continuous capillary water movement to Nabkha vegetation root systems, enabling water redistribution throughout the soil-vegetation-atmosphere interface.

This study contributes to the conservation/restoration of desert vegetation and understanding the resilience of small-scale soil-water-plant ecosystems in arid regions. Further research on soil properties, water availability, and microclimate close to Nabkhas is necessary better to comprehend plant distribution and functioning in these landforms.

 

How to cite: Al Shukaili, A., Kacimov, A., Al Ismaili, S., Al Ghabshi, M., and Al Mamari, H.: Exploring the Hidden Interplay: Moisture and Vegetation Dynamics in the Nabkhas of Omani Coastal Dunes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12041, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12041, 2025.

EGU25-12200 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.5

Declining Soil Hydraulic Conductivity Shifts Root Water Uptake from Bulk Soil to the Rhizosphere and Triggers Stomatal Closure 

Sara Di Bert, Pascal Benard, Rong Jia, Fabian Joscha Pascal Wankmüller, Seren Azad, Anders Kaestner, Andrea Nardini, and Andrea Carminati

Soil water availability is a critical factor in determining how plants regulate their water relations, with drying soils imposing hydraulic constraints that affect root water uptake and stomatal behavior. As soils dry, their hydraulic conductivity is reduced, limiting water movement to the roots and ultimately impacting the flow of water within the soil-plant continuum. When root water uptake exceeds the flow rate allowed by the bulk soil, transpiration cannot be sustained for long. In theory, the critical point when root water uptake is no longer matched by soil water flow should be concomitant with a local depletion of water in the rhizosphere. However, such local depletion has never been observed.

In this study, we used a time-series neutron radiography performed at the ICON beamline of the Paul Scherrer Institute (Villigen PSI, Switzerland) to visualize and quantify root water uptake and soil water distribution in maize samples. Seedlings were grown under controlled conditions in rhizoboxes filled with sandy and loamy soils for two weeks, followed by a period of progressive drying. High-resolution imaging revealed a clear shift in water uptake patterns as the soil dried: initially, water was extracted predominantly from the bulk soil, but under drier conditions, uptake increasingly shifted to the rhizosphere. As soil drying progressed, the rate of water uptake from the rhizosphere became insufficient to meet the transpiration demand. The critical point when water uptake shifted from the bulk to the rhizosphere soil occurred at less negative water potentials in sandy soils (-4 to -5 kPa) than in loamy soils (-100 to -300 kPa), reflecting the differences in hydraulic properties between the two soil types.

These results show that under drought conditions, the rhizosphere serves as a primary water source for plants but cannot fully sustain transpiration over time, ultimately leading to stomatal closure and reduced water loss. By providing direct experimental evidence of how soil hydraulic limitations and rhizosphere water dynamics shape plant responses, this study provides new experimental evidence on the key role of rhizosphere water dynamics in regulating plant water use.

How to cite: Di Bert, S., Benard, P., Jia, R., Wankmüller, F. J. P., Azad, S., Kaestner, A., Nardini, A., and Carminati, A.: Declining Soil Hydraulic Conductivity Shifts Root Water Uptake from Bulk Soil to the Rhizosphere and Triggers Stomatal Closure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12200, 2025.

EGU25-14060 | Orals | HS8.3.5

Ecological and hydroclimatic determinants of vegetation water-use strategies 

Bryn Morgan, Ryoko Araki, Anna Trugman, and Kelly Caylor

Vegetation responses to soil moisture limitation play a key role in land-atmosphere interactions and are a major source of uncertainty in future projections of the global water and carbon cycles. Plant water-use strategies---i.e., regulation of transpiration rates as the soil dries---are highly dynamic across space and time, presenting a major challenge to developing scalable inferences about ecosystem responses to water limitation. Here we show that, when aggregated globally, water-use strategies derived from point-based soil moisture observations exhibit emergent patterns across and within climates and vegetation types along a spectrum of aggressive to conservative responses to water limitation. Water use becomes more conservative, declining more rapidly as the soil dries, as mean annual precipitation increases and as woody cover increases from grasslands to savannas to forests. We embed this empirical synthesis within an ecohydrological framework to show that key ecological (leaf area) and hydroclimatic (aridity) factors driving competition for water explain up to 77% of the variance in water-use strategies within ecosystem types. All biomes respond to ecological and hydroclimatic competition by shifting toward more aggressive water-use strategies. However, woodlands reach a threshold beyond which water use becomes increasingly conservative, reflecting the greater hydraulic risk and cost of tissue damage involved in sustaining high transpiration rates under water limitation for trees than grasses. These findings highlight the importance of characterizing the dynamical nature of vegetation water-use strategies to improve predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change.

How to cite: Morgan, B., Araki, R., Trugman, A., and Caylor, K.: Ecological and hydroclimatic determinants of vegetation water-use strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14060, 2025.

EGU25-14146 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

 Saline-sodicity and soil physical impact on root growth 

Faraj Elsakloul

Of the earth’s 840 million hectares are of soil, roughly 683 million hectares are saline, and 157 million hectares are saline-sodic.  The direct impact of an osmotic stress to plant growth in salt affected soils is well known. Plant roots in salt-affected soils often have morphological changes, and ionic imbalance that interfere with nutrient uptake. In saline-sodic soils, decreased physical stability is typical, likely driving greater penetration resistance and decreased soil aeration.  This could reduce root growth, but research is missing that directly links these measurements of physical behaviour to plant growth. The present study explores these effects in repacked cores of sandy loam and clay loam soils in saline-sodic (NaCl,1.76 g kg-1 soil) or saline (KCl, 2.25 g kg-1 soil) conditions. Different physical conditions of light  (50 kPa) and high (200 kPa) compaction stresses, and wet (-5 kPa) and drier (-50 kPa) water potentials were imposed under controlled conditions. Physical data of compression characteristics, bulk density, water content, air-filled porosity, and penetration resistance were measured on the soil cores. Wheat (salt intolerant) and barley (salt tolerant) were grown in the cores and the lengths of their seedling roots were measured 48 hours after sowing in a rapid growth screen. This study investigates the comparative impacts of saline-sodic and saline soils on soil physical properties and the subsequent effects on barley and wheat root growth. Saline-sodic soil exhibited significantly greater penetration resistance, ranging from 0.58 to 2.73 MPa, compared to the control range of 0.62 to 1.70 MPa. In contrast, saline soil demonstrated less penetration resistance, with a maximum value of 1.84 MPa. Additionally, air-filled porosity in saline-sodic soil decreased to 19%, indicating reduced oxygen availability, while saline soil retained higher aeration (43%), surpassing the control value (34%).

These alterations in soil properties significantly influenced root growth. Barley root elongation was more strongly linked to physical changes, while wheat root growth was adversely affected by both physical and chemical alterations due to its lower salt tolerance. In saline-sodic soil, barley and wheat root elongation were reduced to 32% and 20% of the control, respectively, primarily due to increased penetration resistance. A reduction in air-filled porosity further restricted root growth to 46.7% for barley and 30.6% for wheat. Conversely, the lower penetration resistance in saline soil supported higher root elongation, reaching 82.8% for barley and 63.6% for wheat in comparison to the control. Our analysis with concepts from the least limiting water range indicate that soil physical constraints exacerbate root growth restrictions in saline-sodic soils.

How to cite: Elsakloul, F.:  Saline-sodicity and soil physical impact on root growth, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14146, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14146, 2025.

EGU25-15272 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Soil texture shapes plant adaptation to edaphic stress 

Mohanned Abdalla and Mutez Ahmed

The role of root mucilage in facilitating water uptake during soil drying has been studied for decades. Recently, we demonstrated that mucilage slows the dissipation of water potential in the rhizosphere of actively transpiring plants. While these findings provide new insights into how mucilage maintains the hydraulic continuity between soil and roots under drying conditions, the interaction between mucilage and soil texture remains underexplored.

We used two cowpea genotypes with contrasting mucilage production, grown in two distinct soil textures (coarse and fine), and measured physiological and morphological parameters during and after a dry-down experiment. We hypothesized that mucilage would have a greater role in coarse-textured soils due to its ability to form polysaccharide networks within larger soil pores, enhancing hydraulic connectivity during drying.

Although shoot biomass did not differ between genotypes and soil textures, root morphological analysis revealed significant adaptations to soil texture. The low-mucilage genotype developed a root system twice as long in sand compared to loam, while the high-mucilage genotype showed only a slight increase in root length in sand. Normalized transpiration rates and leaf water potential were similar between genotypes in loam. However, in sand, the high-mucilage genotype maintained relatively lower leaf water potentials (≤ -1.0 MPa), while the low-mucilage genotype closed its stomata at less negative leaf water potentials (≤ -0.6 MPa). These results underscore the critical role of soil texture in shaping plant drought responses and highlight the importance of mucilage in enhancing water uptake in coarse soils.

The ability of mucilage to maintain hydraulic continuity during soil drying is particularly beneficial in coarse-textured soils, where larger pores cause steep decline in water potential in the rhizosphere. The contrasting strategies observed in the two cowpea genotypes—root system elongation versus mucilage-driven water retention—highlight the diverse adaptations plants employ to cope with edaphic stress.

How to cite: Abdalla, M. and Ahmed, M.: Soil texture shapes plant adaptation to edaphic stress, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15272, 2025.

EGU25-15440 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Investigations of the growth and development of seed potatoes under aeroponic conditions 

Györgyi Kovács, István Szűcs, Dávid Pásztor, Attila Nagy, and János Tamás

Potato is one of the most important food crops in the world. It is grown in many countries in different climates, including temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions. Yet its cultivation is hampered by low soil fertility, pests and diseases, and inadequate, good-quality seed tubers. To improve the quality and production of potatoes, it is necessary to develop the potato cultivation technology. The aeroponic system is a way to grow food without soil and save water. Growing tubers has its limitations and challenges to producing good quality seed potatoes. The soilless system allows for a higher growth rate and healthy potato tubers, using a small amount of water. Production is not affected by weather or seasonal adverse effects such as hot, dry, cold, or windy weather. Cultivation can be carried out all year round and yields disease-free potatoes in larger quantities.

Our experiment was set up in the Aeroponics System of the University of Debrecen Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, Institute of Water and Environmental Management. Two Hungarian potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) cultivars, Démon and Botond, were tested in this experiment. We planted 28-day-old, in vitro-raised, properly hardened, 8-10 cm high microplants in the growing units. The nutrient solution, temperature, humidity, and light conditions were set according to the needs of the plants based on literature data. After a few days, the plants' root system began to develop, with a 100 percent survival rate, the plants grew rapidly, and on the 58th day in the system, the beginnings of flowers appeared.  During their development, we examined the height, number of leaves, stem thickness, photosynthetic activity, the chlorophyll-carotenoid content of the plants, and we also examined the characteristics of the individual growth stages with the help of active GIS (LiDAR).

This manuscript provides insight into the potential use of aeroponics for the development of agro techniques for seed potato production. Differences were found between the cultivars in the examined parameters. Démon is a cultivar with stronger stems and greater stem strength, which started flowering earlier but is more sensitive to the composition of the nutrient solution. The Botond cultivar is more elongated in the direction of the light. Aeroponic systems are suitable for growing seed potatoes.

The research presented in the article was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program, with support from the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.

How to cite: Kovács, G., Szűcs, I., Pásztor, D., Nagy, A., and Tamás, J.: Investigations of the growth and development of seed potatoes under aeroponic conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15440, 2025.

EGU25-17280 | Posters on site | HS8.3.5

Plant Modeling with CPlantBox: Bridging Structure and Function  

Daniel Leitner, Mona Giraud, Andrea Schnepf, Holger Pagel, and Jan Vanderborght

Plant development strongly depends on the water and nutrient uptake by the evolving root system, the carbon uptake and assimilation in the leaves, as well as the water, solute and carbon transport inside the plant. The mechanistic functional-structural plant model CPlantBox enables simulations of the dynamic plant and soil systems, and therefore the analysis of feedback loops between water and carbon fluxes as well as root-soil interface processes such as water and solute uptake or rhizodeposition. Such models are a crucial tool to evaluate the sustainability of future phenotype-environment-management combinations, as well as to enhance plant breeding efforts and to analyze the impact of future climate scenarios. Therefore, CPlantBox serves as a powerful platform for advancing sustainable agricultural management strategies .

The open-source model CPlantBox has been developed over the last fifteen years starting from a pure structural root model (Leitner et al. 2010) developing to a functional-structural root architecture model (Schnepf et al. 2018), towards a more holistic functional structural plant model (Giraud et al. 2023, Zhou et al. 2020). Today, CPlantBox includes multiple functional modules describing water and carbon fluxes within the plant, including a photosynthesis model, as well as various dynamic rhizosphere modules that are described by 1D axisymmetric systems of partial differential equations (PDE) around root segment that interact with 1D, 2D or 3D macroscopic soil models. The PDEs are solved with the open-source finite volume solver DuMux (Koch et al. 2021). In this work we describe CPlantBox by state-of-the art examples from various research projects specifically focusing on its functional modules, and presenting its modelling framework which facilitates further model development. 

References

Giraud M., Gall S.L., Harings M., Javaux M., Leitner D., Meunier F., Rothfuss Y., van Dusschoten D., Vanderborght J., Vereecken H., Lobet G., and Schnepf A. (2023). CPlantBox: a fully coupled modelling platform for the water and carbon fluxes in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. in silico Plants 5 (2), diad009

Koch T., Gläser D., Weishaupt K., Ackermann S., Beck M., Becker B., ... & Flemisch B. (2021). DuMux 3–an open-source simulator for solving flow and transport problems in porous media with a focus on model coupling. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 81, 423-443.

Leitner D., Klepsch S., Bodner G, and Schnepf A. (2010). A dynamic root system growth model based on L-Systems: Tropisms and coupling to nutrient uptake from soil. Plant and soil 332: 177-192.

Schnepf A., Leitner D., Landl M., Lobet G., Mai T.H., Morandage S., Sheng C., Zörner M., Vanderborght J., Vereecken H. (2018). CRootBox: a structural–functional modelling framework for root systems. Annals of botany 121 (5), 1033-1053.

Zhou X.R., Schnepf A., Vanderborght J., Leitner D., Lacointe A., Vereecken H., and Lobet G. (2020) CPlantBox, a whole-plant modelling framework for the simulation of water-and carbon-related processes. in silico Plants 2 (1), diaa001.

How to cite: Leitner, D., Giraud, M., Schnepf, A., Pagel, H., and Vanderborght, J.: Plant Modeling with CPlantBox: Bridging Structure and Function , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17280, 2025.

EGU25-17498 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.5

Root distribution shifts at both seasonal and daily scales following precipitation events in a temperate grassland 

Samuele Ceolin, Stanislaus Schymanski, and Julian Klaus

Roots are fundamental plant organs mediating water and nutrient uptake, among other functions. The amount of soil water available to roots fluctuates over time. With increasing climatic variability and extended periods of drought, it is important to understand how roots respond to fluctuations in available soil water. Furthermore, soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer models need a precise characterization of the spatial and temporal organization of root systems for more accurate predictions of water fluxes mediated by vegetation.

It has been shown that root systems dynamically adapt to seasonal changes in soil moisture by shifting their growth allocation from the upper soil to deeper depths as a dry period progresses. In previous work we explored the phenomenon of “Hydromatching” in young individual maize plants, which involves the daily-timescale promotion of root growth in a newly wetted soil layer accompanied by a decline in root growth in drier layers. Here we report results from a 1.5-year-long field study in Luxembourg, where we investigated if the results of Hydromatching can also be observed at a community scale in a temperate grassland.

Near a well-instrumented weather station, we installed 12 minirhizotrons enabling us to obtain images of roots growing down to a soil depth of 115 cm. We imaged the tubes every two weeks, with increased sampling frequency shortly after major precipitation events during the growing season. We calculated local root growth rates at different depths and related them to local soil moisture and temperature variations measured by four sensors located at depths of 10, 20, 40 and 60 cm.

We found that, even under strong variations in temperature, soil moisture remained a more important predictor of root growth at 10, 20 and 40 cm depth, despite the site being more energy than water-limited. Following rain events, root growth distribution shifted from the deeper soil to the shallow soil within 1-5 days, demonstrating the potential effect of Hydromatching at community scale. Following a renewed dryness, root allocation shifted again to the deeper soil within 7-8 days from the rain event, showing a remarkably dynamic nature of the root systems in the grassland. The 2023 spring-summer transition saw a much larger change in soil moisture compared to the 2022 transition. Nonetheless, during the seasonal change both years exhibited a significant and similar growth promotion in the deeper soil coupled with a decline in root length at shallower depths. These results suggest that daily root distribution shifts following rewetting events are likely regulated by environmental variables while seasonal shifts seem to be dictated by phenological factors. Regardless, both daily and seasonal shifts appear to reflect an optimization strategy, consisting of the promotion of root growth in moist areas while discarding roots where moisture is less accessible. Such strategy might have evolved to cope with soil water heterogeneity while efficiently managing carbon budgeting.

How to cite: Ceolin, S., Schymanski, S., and Klaus, J.: Root distribution shifts at both seasonal and daily scales following precipitation events in a temperate grassland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17498, 2025.

EGU25-19311 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.5

Symbioses with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi alter allocation of plant-derived carbon to soil organic matter pools under drought and well-watered conditions 

Franziska Steiner, Nicolas Tyborski, Jorge Veciana, Mohanned Abdalla, Tillmann Lüders, Johanna Pausch, Carsten W. Mueller, and Alix Vidal

The symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can enhance the drought resilience of associated crops, for example, by modifying the belowground morphology of host plants. Additionally, the fungal symbionts are key drivers of organic matter (OM) allocation at the root-soil interface: AMF can modify the quantity and composition of plant-derived carbon (C) inputs to the soil and change their fate through altered microbial processing, enhanced organo-mineral interactions, or changes in spatial soil arrangements. However, the effects of future drought events on the intricate linkages between fungal symbionts, host plants, and their feedback on plant-derived OM dynamics under water scarcity remain poorly understood. This study aims to understand (1) how AMF, in conjunction with the host plant´s morphological response, influence plant-derived C inputs and their allocation across OM pools, and (2) whether AMF-mediated changes in the fate of plant-derived C differ between well-watered and drought conditions.

Two maize genotypes, an AMF-resistant mutant and an AMF-receptive wildtype, were grown in a pot experiment under well-watered and drought conditions. 13CO2 pulse labeling was employed to trace the allocation of assimilated C throughout the plant-soil system and across functional soil OM pools, which were isolated via density fractionation.

Drought strongly reduced 13C fixation of maize plants, limiting overall plant-derived C inputs to the soil and causing its accumulation in readily water-extractable forms. The fate of plant-derived C under both well-watered and drought conditions was modified by the symbiosis of the host plant with AMF: The greater compensatory root length growth of AMF-deficient plants promoted the occlusion of particulate OM in aggregates under well-watered conditions, whereas this effect did not prevail under drought. In contrast, the greater net-rhizodeposition of AMF-receptive plants facilitated the incorporation of plant-derived C into mineral-associated OM under both watering regimes, partially mitigating the drought-induced accumulation of plant-derived C in water-extractable form.

Our findings underscore the significant impact future drought spells will impose on plant-derived OM inputs and composition at the root-soil interface in cropping systems. Notably, the symbiosis of crop plants with AMF has the potential to enhance the persistence of root-derived OM in agricultural soils, not only under sufficient water supply but also during periods of drought.

How to cite: Steiner, F., Tyborski, N., Veciana, J., Abdalla, M., Lüders, T., Pausch, J., Mueller, C. W., and Vidal, A.: Symbioses with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi alter allocation of plant-derived carbon to soil organic matter pools under drought and well-watered conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19311, 2025.

EGU25-1787 | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Air sparging analysis through the continuum approach 

Ilan Ben-Noah

Air-sparging refers to the injection of air below the groundwater table. Air-sparging can facilitate the volatilization of organic pollutants or form a hydraulic barrier for the remediation or confinement of polluted groundwater. However, evaluating and modeling the flow and distribution of air is limited by the complicated physics of unstable multiphase flow. These complexities drive researchers to search for empirical relations and rules of thumb to design air-sparging systems.

Yet, despite these complexities, good agreement has been found when comparing analytical solutions of the classical flow physics' steady air injection problem to experimental results. Building on these results, adjusted analytical solutions and a phase decoupling framework can be set as a fast, robust, and parameters-parsimonious method for the design of air injection systems.

How to cite: Ben-Noah, I.: Air sparging analysis through the continuum approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1787, 2025.

Rhizoliths, cylindrical concretions formed mostly by CaCO3  accumulation around plant roots, serve as valuable indicators of environmental conditions and ecosystem dynamics such as carbon sequestration and water balance. Despite increasing attention to rhizolith formation, there remains a lack of numerical, laboratory, and field experiments. For the first time, we developed a dynamic model of rhizolith formation in CaCO3-containing loess soils, considering water fluxes toward roots, Ca2+ and CO32- concentration in soil solution, and potential evapotranspiration rates (ETo). Using numerical simulations with the HYDRUS-1D model, we explored the interplay between these factors and their impacts on rhizolith development. Hydraulic fluxes facilitate Ca2+ (simulated at 0.13, 0.15, 0.3, and 1 mmol L-1) transport towards the rhizosphere as a function of root water uptake at low (ETo = 0.03 cm d-1) and high (ETo = 1 cm d-1) water flow rates under initial optimal (ho = -100 cm) and intermediate (ho = -1000 cm) moisture conditions. An extensive simulation run was critical for achieving zero-suction gradient (dh/dz =0) in the model, which was attained at 374-year run (Tԑ), with equilibrium water content Ɵԑ of 0.089 cm3 cm-3 and yields 0.23 cmcm-3 threshold porosity for calcite saturation ɸ Casat, equivalent to 72% of the loess porosity ɸ of 0.32 cm3 cm-3. The equilibrium properties at Tԑ enabled differentiation between hydraulic constraints and jamming of the porous medium by calcite saturation as the causes of the standstill in the calcification function. On top of that, our work unfolds root encasement and reliquary varieties with their concomitant physical and biogeochemical mechanisms underlying rhizolith transformations. At intermediate soil-water conditions with 1 mmol L-1 Ca2+, tempo-sequential evolution of rhizoliths of radii 0.2, 1, 2, and 3 cm occurs in respectively 1.5, 9.5, 85, and 150 years. Each rhizolith layer harbors CaCO3 constituents (namely, δ18O, δ13C, 44Ca, 46Ca, and 48Ca), organic biomarker compounds from root (e.g., lignin), and clumped isotopes (Δ⁴⁷) among others which are preserved across time into the future. Therefore, this work conceptualizes rhizolith as a ‘time-capsule’ with each CaCO3 layer encapsulating a snapshot of vital environmental proxies, providing a window into otherwise inaccessible historic ecosystem dynamics.

How to cite: Tetteh, K.: Rhizoliths formation: mechanistic models and implications for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2288, 2025.

EGU25-2850 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

A Year Lond Study: Bare Topsoil Temporal and Vertical Variability in Hydraulic Properties 

Jan-František Kubát, Michal Vrána, Adam Babuljak, and David Zumr

Soils exhibit considerable variability in their physical and hydraulic properties, which can change both spatially and temporally. Research on the temporal variability and especially the internal variability of hydraulic and physical properties within the shallow topsoil itself remains scarce. In this one-year study (2023–2024), we investigated seasonal changes in the physical and hydraulic properties of post-tillage bare topsoil at the plot scale, hypothesizing significant temporal variability and heterogeneity within topsoil. The study was conducted in Czechia in a continental humid climate on agricultural soils. Monthly sampling was carried out on a 16 m² plot during the growing season, focusing on the 12 cm thick topsoil layer, which was divided into the upper section (0–5 cm) and the deeper section (7–12 cm). A total of 28 disturbed and 107 undisturbed samples were collected, 40 soil water retention curves (SWRC) were measured. Robust statistical analyses were performed, including normality tests (Shapiro-Wilk, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Lilliefors tests) and variability tests (Kruskal-Wallis, Dunn test, LOWESS, and MANOVA). The results revealed a . For instance, the overall mean of the n parameter in the upper section was 1.404 ± 0.126, exhibiting greater variability compared to the deeper section, which had a mean of 1.254 ± 0.103. The mean α parameter showed similar overall variability in the deeper section (0.075 ± 0.024) and the upper section (0.060 ± 0.019). The contrasting patterns of variability highlight the importance of thoroughly evaluating both datasets. Relying solely on statistical results of the van Genuchten parameters or the SWRC data alone risks overlooking important temporal and vertical variations, emphasizing the need for comprehensive analyses.

How to cite: Kubát, J.-F., Vrána, M., Babuljak, A., and Zumr, D.: A Year Lond Study: Bare Topsoil Temporal and Vertical Variability in Hydraulic Properties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2850, 2025.

EGU25-4935 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.6

A multiscale algorithm for soil water flow and solute transport simulations and its application in subsurface drainage system optimization 

Yingzhi Qian, Yan Zhu, Xiaoping Zhang, Alberto Guadagnini, and Jiesheng Huang

Networks of subsurface pipes are widely used in humid regions to facilitate rapid removal of surface ponding and effectively decrease groundwater tables. Their application is also extended to arid regions as a strategic approach for mitigating soil salinization. Currently available subsurface pipe layout design methods require updating to properly incorporate salt discharge in such contexts. Numerical modeling is then a key tool for effective optimization of design parameters of such subsurface drainage systems. One of the challenges in subsurface drainage simulation is the inherent multiscale nature of the setting. A substantial scale disparity can be evidenced between millimeter-scale dimensions of subsurface drainage pipes and the meter-scale size of available field-scale soil profiles. Gradients of water potential and solute concentration near a subsurface pipe are typically high, thus challenging accuracy of numerical simulations targeting water and salt content across the soil-water system. To achieve accurate and computationally efficient simulations of water flow and solute transport in soil-water system within which subsurface drainage systems are in place, implementation of local grid refinement strategies is critical. In this context, we proposed (Qian et al., 2024) a soil water flow and solute transport model based on a vertex- centered finite volume method (VCFVM). The model has virtually no limitations on the cell shape as well as the number of neighbor cells, and strictly ensures local mass conservation. Here, we start by rigorously assessing the accuracy and efficiency of the algorithm upon considering test scenarios characterized by various soil textures and diverse boundary conditions. Our results show the that accurate solutions can be obtained upon relying on a grid whose number of nodes is only 5% of that of globally refined grid of the kind that are typically employed. The model is then further integrated with drainage equations to accurately simulate subsurface drainage process, so that the effect of placement of subsurface pipes can be effectively included. Our study suggests that the proposed model can accurately simulate soil water content, solute concentration, and subsurface drainage amount using a typical (globally refined) gridding procedure. Otherwise, it can save about 95% of CPU time by using nonmatching grids. Finally, a novel, user-friendly framework for the optimization of subsurface pipe layouts and corresponding leaching quota is proposed and demonstrated on a series of exemplary scenarios.

Reference:
Yingzhi Qian, Xiaoping Zhang, Yan Zhu, Lili Ju, Alberto Guadagnini, Jiesheng Huang, 2024, A novel vertex-centered finite volume method for solving Richards' equation and its adaptation to local mesh refinement, Journal of Computational Physics, 501, 112766,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2024.112766.

How to cite: Qian, Y., Zhu, Y., Zhang, X., Guadagnini, A., and Huang, J.: A multiscale algorithm for soil water flow and solute transport simulations and its application in subsurface drainage system optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4935, 2025.

EGU25-4980 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.6

The potential of Source-responsive Method in representing macropore structural characteristics within soil profiles 

Xuhui Shen, Jintao Liu, Harry Vereecken, and Mehdi Rahmati

The source-responsive method (SRM), which accounts for film flow in macropores and matrix absorption phenomena, is an advanced dual-domain modeling framework and has been successfully applied in catchment scale. It also provides a parameter-predictive approach by introducing a parameter, M, to represent macropore area density. However, the capability of this parameter to accurately reflect macropore structure remains unclear. In this study, a 1-D infiltration model based on SRM was developed to simulate soil water dynamics across six experiments, and obtained calibrated M values. The results demonstrate that the SRM performs well (NSE>0.88) in most cases, except for two artificial-macropore experiments with low M values. Measured M values were extracted from horizontal image slices of dyeing experiments. In experiments with good infiltration simulation performance, the measured values align closely with calibrated values (RE<35%), though they are consistently slightly higher. Conversely, in poorly simulated experiments, significant deviations were observed, with RE exceeding one order of magnitude. Further analysis using HYDRUS-2D revealed that limited lateral water propagation from macropore walls contributed to poor simulation accuracy when M values were excessively low.

.

How to cite: Shen, X., Liu, J., Vereecken, H., and Rahmati, M.: The potential of Source-responsive Method in representing macropore structural characteristics within soil profiles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4980, 2025.

EGU25-6306 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.6

Understanding microplastic transport and retention in soil: insights from laboratory and field studies 

Rozita Soltani Tehrani, Xiaomei Yang, and Jos van Dam

Microplastic pollution in terrestrial environments poses significant risks to soil health, groundwater quality, and ecosystem functionality. This study integrates findings from laboratory and field experiments to elucidate the dynamics of microplastic transport and retention in soils under various conditions. Laboratory experiments examined the fate of low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polybutylene adipate terephthalate (PBAT), and starch-based biodegradable microplastics in sandy loam and loamy sand soils under controlled rainfall intensities (22 mm/h and 35 mm/h). Effluent and soil analyses, coupled with microplastic balance assessments, revealed recovery rates between 64% and 104%, underscoring the reliability of the experimental approach. Transport varied with soil type, rainfall intensity, and polymer characteristics, with loamy sand exhibiting higher wash-off rates. LDPE consistently showed greater mobility than biodegradable polymers, particularly under higher rainfall intensities. Field studies complemented these findings, using loamy sand soil columns subjected to natural precipitation and fluctuating groundwater levels over 6- and 12-month periods. Retention profiles and particle size analyses highlighted distinct behaviors: LDPE persisted across soil depths, PBAT exhibited moderate redistribution due to partial biodegradation and starch-based microplastics underwent significant fragmentation and deeper transport. The field's natural precipitation and wet-dry cycles enhanced microplastic mobilization and degradation compared to laboratory conditions. HYDRUS-1D modeling was employed across both settings. Laboratory simulations showed depth-dependent deposition, particularly in upper soil layers, while field models reflected material-specific degradation and redistribution. Notably, LDPE exhibited stable retention parameters, whereas biodegradable polymers demonstrated declining attachment and detachment coefficients over time, indicating their biodegradability. These findings underscore the critical roles of soil type, rainfall intensity, polymer properties, and environmental conditions in shaping microplastic behavior in soils. Integrating controlled laboratory experiments and long-term field studies provides a comprehensive understanding of microplastic fate, offering essential insights for modeling and mitigating their impact on terrestrial ecosystems.
Keywords: microplastic transport, soil contamination, soil column experiment, HYDRUS-1D

How to cite: Soltani Tehrani, R., Yang, X., and van Dam, J.: Understanding microplastic transport and retention in soil: insights from laboratory and field studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6306, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6306, 2025.

Frozen soils are typically considered impermeable due to their reduced infiltration capacity. During rainfall, water behavior depends on whether the soil thaws, allowing infiltration, or remains frozen, causing surface runoff that may lead to flooding or debris flows.
Open macropores, such as cracks, root channels, and wormholes, act as preferential flow paths, significantly altering these dynamics. Understanding these processes is crucial for improving hydrological models, evaluating slope stability, and assessing natural hazard risks in cold regions.

To investigate these mechanisms, a novel large-scale experimental setup has been developed, which is up to ten times larger than previous experiments and surpasses them in complexity.
The setup features a tiltable design, adjustable up to 20°, allowing the system to replicate natural slope conditions. An advanced irrigation system ensures automated and uniform rainfall distribution across the surface. Controlled climate conditions are maintained via a sophisticated climate chamber, enabling precise and realistic freezing processes. A macropore pattern plate facilitates the creation of a reproducible macropore network, ensuring consistency across experiments. Additionally, advanced sensors enable 3D visualization of soil temperature and moisture distribution, providing detailed insights into the internal processes during freezing and thawing.
This innovative approach reduces the gap between simplified small-scale experiments and the complexity of real-world scenarios.

Experimental results demonstrate that open macropores, despite their small volume fraction within the soil body, significantly facilitate infiltration and accelerate thawing of frozen slopes, directly influencing the hydrological cycle and slope stability.
The findings provide essential data for validating numerical models under climate-relevant freeze-thaw scenarios.

With the increasing frequency of freeze-thaw cycles driven by climate change, this research is essential for assessing infrastructure risks, managing groundwater resources, and mitigating natural hazards in cold and transitional regions.

How to cite: Bauer, J., Müller, S., and Baselt, I.: Macropore-Driven Infiltration in Frozen Slopes: Large-Scale Experimental Insights with Hydrological and Geotechnical Implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6622, 2025.

Infiltration and evaporation processes in porous media are crucial for understanding the hydrologic cycle and managing water resources, particularly in the context of climate change. Studying these processes requires models that accurately represent experimental and field measurements.

This work focuses on understanding flow and transport during water infiltration and evaporation cycles, considering factors such as soil heterogeneity, the non-linearity of its properties, and the formation of gravity fingers. We aim to improve the modeling of infiltration and evaporation processes in soils to accurately predict water flow and solute transport behavior, and to characterize the impact of soil heterogeneity, non-linear properties, and gravity fingers on these processes.

To address the effect of these factors, we simulate water infiltration and evaporation cycles, and solute transport in unsaturated soil. Two modeling approaches are compared: the traditional Richards’ equation and the fourth-order derivative in space model proposed by Cueto-Felgueroso and Juanes (2009), which is able to reproduce the formation of fingers and preferential flow during water infiltration. The flow and transport problems are solved using the finite element library FEniCS.

Soil heterogeneity is represented by Gaussian random permeability fields, with different correlation lengths and variance. To evaluate how heterogeneity affects dispersion and mixing during the solute transport, we analyze solute breakthrough curves at different depths, we calculate dispersion coefficients, concentration distribution and segregation index.

 

Keywords: infiltration and evaporation cycles, unsaturated flow, heterogeneity, gravity fingers, finite element method, solute transport, mixing.

References:

Cueto-Felgueroso, L., and R. Juanes (2009). A phase field model of unsaturated flow. Water Resources Research, 45, W10409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR007945

How to cite: Castillo, Y., Hidalgo, J., and Dentz, M.: Unsaturated Flow and Solute Transport During Infiltration and Evaporation Cycles: Influence of Soil Heterogeneity and Gravity Fingers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9139, 2025.

EGU25-10142 | Orals | HS8.3.6

Effects of Water Table Fluctuations on Natural Source Zone Depletion of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Contaminated Soils 

Fereidoun Rezanezhad, Mehdi Ramezanzadeh, Stephanie Slowinski, Jane Ye, Marianne Vandergriendt, and Philippe Van Cappellen

In soils contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs), water table fluctuations (WTFs) affect the kinetics of PHC biodegradation and the generation and transport of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Thus, understanding the impacts of WTFs on natural source zone depletion processes is critical for environmental risk assessment and the design of soil remediation strategies. In this study, a 300 day-long column experiment was conducted to simulate the effects of water table fluctuations on the aerobic and anaerobic PHC biodegradation pathways and rates. Eight columns were each filled with 45 cm of soil from undisturbed cores collected at a site formerly contaminated with PHCs. Four columns simulating fluctuating water table conditions were subjected to three successive 6-week cycles of drainage and imbibition. The remaining four columns remained fully saturated over the period of the experiment, simulating a static water table. Except for the controls, the columns received injections of ethanol or ethanol plus naphthalene after 111 days of pre-equilibration. Over the duration of the experiment, soil moisture, soil surface CO2 and CH4 effluxes, dissolved CO2 and CH4 concentrations, δ13C compositions of CO2 and CH4, dissolved naphthalene concentrations, and ancillary geochemical parameters were monitored. The remaining naphthalene depth distributions in the soil columns were also measured at the end of the experiment. A reactive transport model representing 13 biogeochemical reaction pathways was verified against the acquired data. The experimental and modeling results confirmed that the prevailing pathway generating CH4 shifted from hydrogen-based to acetate-based methanogenesis in the ethanol and ethanol plus naphthalene spiked columns, while CH4 oxidation played a key role in controlling the CH4 efflux during the drainage periods. Compared to the static water table columns, the WTF columns exhibited significantly faster naphthalene attenuation while the cumulative CO2 and CH4 effluxes were about twice as high. These observations were attributed to the periodic incursion of air during the WTFs, which increased the porewater-air interface area for gas transfer while also accelerating the aerobic degradation of soil organic matter and naphthalene. Overall, our study advances the quantitative modeling of the biogeochemical reaction network in PHC contaminated soils under WTFs, including the role of methanogenic pathways.

How to cite: Rezanezhad, F., Ramezanzadeh, M., Slowinski, S., Ye, J., Vandergriendt, M., and Van Cappellen, P.: Effects of Water Table Fluctuations on Natural Source Zone Depletion of Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Contaminated Soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10142, 2025.

EGU25-10991 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Evaluating the combined value of cosmic ray neutron sensing and water isotopes to track and quantify groundwater recharge and soil moisture dynamics in vadose zone modelling 

Katya Dimitrova Petrova, Christine Stumpp, Lena Scheiffele, Anneke Tombraegel, and Sascha Oswald

Estimating areal groundwater recharge (GWR) rates is crucial to assess the sustainability of groundwater resource use. Estimation methods, including physical measurements, water budget approaches, numerical methods and tracer methods each have their strength and limitations. Jointly, monitoring of different hydrological dynamics (e.g. shallow and deep soil moisture, GW levels) and the simulation of the complex process interactions between groundwater, soil, plants and the atmosphere can lead to a more accurate quantitative and scale-relevant estimation.

Influenced by soil hydraulic properties and meteorological conditions, soil moisture plays a crucial role in controlling water flux partitioning into evapotranspiration (ET) and seepage, which can ultimately contribute to groundwater recharge (GWR). For better understanding the soil moisture dynamics, cosmic ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is an increasingly popular method for continuous SM monitoring beyond the point scale over a footprint of (150-300 m radius) over the depth of the root zone (down to 30-50 cm). Soil water isotopes are natural tracers and, for several decades form part of the toolkit for assessing water fluxes in the vadose zone. The general usefulness of both observations has been evaluated separately and successfully in the dedicated modules of the widely used vadose zone model (HYDRUS 5) in previous studies. However, their combined value is yet to be assessed in tracking quantities and timing of GWR.

Therefore, the overall aim of the present study is to evaluate the usefulness of combining field-scale CRNS based soil moisture information with soil water isotopes (δ2H and δ18O) measurements in HYDRUS 5 to evaluate GWR dynamics in a highly instrumented agricultural hillslope in NE Germany. The study period focuses on two distinct hydrological years, a relatively drier (October 1st, 2022 – September 30th, 2023) and a relatively wetter one with considerable snow input in winter (October 1st, 2023 – September 30th, 2024).

We parameterize the vadose zone model for two locations on a hillslope with contrasting distances to the GW table. These differences are expected to directly influence GWR travel times and GW contribution to ET. The upslope location has deeper GW table of 4-6 m below surface and the downslope one features shallow GW table, 0.8 – 2.5m, respectively. On the one hand, we employ field-scale SM estimates resulting from a combination of CRNS and adjacent profile SM (down to 100 cm) timeseries at each location, to estimate site-specific transport parameters. Timeseries of groundwater level measurements are additionally used to constrain the bottom boundary of the model. Secondly, we use profiles of bulk soil water isotopes collected along the hillslope on three occasions (May 2023, January 2024 and May 2024) to constrain transport parameters. The calibrated models are then used to track the fate of infiltrated rainfall to estimate GWR travel times and compare dynamics (quantity and timing of GWR) between the dry and wet year.

The insights gained from this modelling exercise will inform future efforts in GWR estimation and drought monitoring networks in NE Germany and evaluate the usefulness of complementing these with dedicated tracer measurements for better understanding hydrological processes driving GWR.

How to cite: Dimitrova Petrova, K., Stumpp, C., Scheiffele, L., Tombraegel, A., and Oswald, S.: Evaluating the combined value of cosmic ray neutron sensing and water isotopes to track and quantify groundwater recharge and soil moisture dynamics in vadose zone modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10991, 2025.

EGU25-11280 | ECS | Orals | HS8.3.6

Solute redistribution during saline water evaporation in porous media and its effects on the onset of salt crust formation  

M. Ali Chaudhry, Stefanie Kiemle, Sahar Jannesarahmadi, Andreas Pohlmeier, Rainer Helmig, Nima Shokri, and Johan Alexander Huisman

Evaporation from porous media is a key phenomenon in the terrestrial environment and is linked to soil salinization, degradation and weathering of building materials. Column-scale experiments could extend our understanding of the complex processes affecting saline water evaporation. In this context, the current study aims at investigating solute accumulation near evaporating surfaces and the resulting implications for time to salt crust formation. Previous numerical studies with REV-scale simulations predict the development of local instabilities due to density differences during saline water evaporation in case of saturated porous media with high permeability, eventually causing density-driven downward flow through fingering. To experimentally investigate this process on the column-scale, we performed evaporation experiments on two types of porous media: medium sand (F36) and fine sand/silt (W3) saturated with NaCl solution. The intrinsic permeability of the two packings differed by two orders of magnitude, i.e. 29×10-12 m2 for F36 and 0.56×10-12 m2 for W3. Using magnetic resonance imaging (23Na-MRI), we monitored solute accumulation at the surface and subsequent downward redistribution of salt in time-lapse scans during evaporation with a continuous supply of water from below (wicking). Results showed key differences between the enrichment patterns of Na for the two types of porous media. Density-driven downward flow only occurred in F36, initially manifested by fingering, and resulted eventually in redistribution of Na throughout the sample. For W3, solute accumulated at the thin region at the surface with a thickness of a few mm. Despite similar average evaporation rates for both porous media, the concentration at the top reached the saturation limit (6.13 mol/L) for W3, whereas it remained relatively low (2.5 mol/L) for F36 due to the redistribution. This different behavior suggests that time-to-crust formation is longer for higher permeability porous media under similar evaporation conditions applied in our experiments. 
To investigate crust formation in more detail, additional column-scale evaporation experiments with wicking conditions were performed on three sands WS1, WS2 and WS3 with particle sizes ranging between 0.1 to 0.3 mm, 0.3 to 0.5 mm and 0.71 to 1.0 mm, respectively. To achieve well-controlled evaporation conditions, experiments were performed in a wind tunnel maintaining a constant wind speed of 5 ms-1. Surface time-lapse imaging with a digital camera was performed to observe the onset time of crust formation as well as the resulting crust morphology after initiation. The results showed that for the relatively coarser WS2 sand, onset of crust took twice as long (40 hours) in comparison to the finer WS1 sand (20 hours). The significantly larger particle size of WS3 sand led to air entry, partially saturated conditions and an almost instantaneous crust formation. The crust formation affected also the evaporation rate of each sand, which is attributed to the formation of a new porous layer (crust) and its wetting-drying dynamics. These findings encourage further investigation into effects on crust development for heterogeneous porous media, redistribution and precipitation of different salt types, and the coupling of experimental results to numerical modelling.

How to cite: Chaudhry, M. A., Kiemle, S., Jannesarahmadi, S., Pohlmeier, A., Helmig, R., Shokri, N., and Huisman, J. A.: Solute redistribution during saline water evaporation in porous media and its effects on the onset of salt crust formation , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11280, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11280, 2025.

EGU25-11331 | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Applicability of Darcy-based models to predict vertical water fluxes in paddy fields 

Michele Rienzner, Giulio Luca Cristian Gilardi, and Arianna Facchi

Rice is one of the world’s most important staple foods and it is typically grown in rice paddies which are usually flooded for much of the growing season, causing significant percolation through the soil profile. The amount of water percolated depends on the ponding water level and on the hydrological properties of the soil, which in paddy fields is mainly articulated into a rooted soil horizon (muddy layer), a hardpan, and a subsoil. In addition, the percolation can be affected (reduced) by a shallow water table depth, which is commonly present in many rice growing areas.

In the models proposed to compute rice field water fluxes, three approaches are mostly used to simulate the vertical percolation: fixed percolation rate set by the user (e.g. implemented in YIELD, Cropwat and ORYZA models), Richard’s equation (e.g. in Hydrus, SWAP, FLOWS), or the Darcy’s law (e.g. SAWAH, WatPad introduced by Facchi et al., 2018). The fixed percolation approach is suitable when information on average percolation is available and percolation is known to be roughly constant along the season. On the opposite side, the application of the Richard’s equation requires the knowledge of the thicknesses and the soil properties (i.e. parameters of the soil water retention curve and unsaturated conductivity curves) of all soil horizons in the profile. Somehow in the middle of the two previous approaches, the Darcy-based models require only a few soil parameters; WatPad only needs the thickness of muddy and hardpan layers and saturated hydraulic conductivity of the hardpan. Obviously, both the Darcy and Richard’s approaches need the groundwater level if the water table is close to the soil surface.

The use of a Darcy’s model allows data collection to be focused on a small number of highly relevant soil characteristics, and this can be particularly useful when considering modelling applications over large spatial areas. However, this type of model lacks theoretical support for calculating water fluxes during periods when fields are in unsaturated conditions and, more importantly, for defining water potential values under the hardpan, especially when the water table is far from the soil surface. If the unsaturated flow is often very small or even negligible, errors in defining the soil water potential under the hardpan can lead to significant errors undermining the Darcy-based models.

A series of comparisons were made between the WatPad model and the SWAP model, considering deep groundwater table conditions. Results show that the two models gave nearly overlapping vertical percolations when in the Darcy’s model: i) the atmospheric pressure is set at the lower side of the hardpan and ii) the head loss due to the muddy layer is neglected. Indeed, these two simplifications affect the estimated percolation with similar errors and different signs, almost canceling each other out.

This research has been developed in the context of the PROMEDRICE project (https://promedrice.org/).

How to cite: Rienzner, M., Gilardi, G. L. C., and Facchi, A.: Applicability of Darcy-based models to predict vertical water fluxes in paddy fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11331, 2025.

EGU25-11393 | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Fluid-solid reaction in partially-saturated media at the pore scale 

Tomas Aquino, Guillem Sole-Mari, Oshri Borgman, Nolwenn Delouche, Khalil Hanna, and Tanguy Le Borgne

It is by now well known that pore-scale heterogeneity can lead to mass transfer limitations, resulting in incomplete solute mixing and thereby decreasing reaction rates when compared to laboratory batch experiments. The mixing state of the plume, and therefore the reaction rates, result from a complex interplay of deformation by fluid flow, diffusion, and reactive depletion or production. In partially-saturated systems, such as the vadose zone, the simultaneous presence of air and water further enhances structural heterogeneity, leading to broad flow velocity distributions and resulting in qualitatively different transport dynamics. Despite significant advances in modeling pore-scale reactive mixing, the role of partial saturation in reaction dynamics remains poorly understood. In this work, we focus on linear decay of a transported species upon contact with the water-solid interface. Among other processes, this type of reaction models antibiotic degradation through redox reaction with a mineral phase. We simulate steady-state water flow subject to a frozen spatial configuration of air and water phases obtained experimentally in quasi-2D media. The solid phase is composed of cylindrical pillars with variable radii, characterized by different spatial correlation structures. The flow is simulated using Eulerian methods, while reactive transport simulations employ Lagrangian particle tracking. We find that, while solute dispersion and breakthrough curve width increase dramatically, overall reaction rates are largely insensitive to saturation. We discuss the origins of this counter-intuitive result and how it can be used to model reactive breakthrough. These findings provide new insights into the role of saturation in transport subject to surface reaction, and open up new questions regarding the role of flow structure and reaction kinetics.

How to cite: Aquino, T., Sole-Mari, G., Borgman, O., Delouche, N., Hanna, K., and Le Borgne, T.: Fluid-solid reaction in partially-saturated media at the pore scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11393, 2025.

EGU25-11713 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

The demand for an accurate model of the denitrification process in the drainage zone 

David Schoner, Julia Westphal, Reinhard Well, Caroline Buchen-Tschiskale, and Florian Stange

Denitrification is an important process in the soil that leads to the degradation of nitrate into nitrous oxide or dinitrogen. It prevents the leaching of nitrate from the soil into groundwater. For this reason, denitrification is implemented in many models. However, most of the models only consider the root zone in their calculations. Denitrification below the root zone (deep vadose zone or drainage zone) is overlooked. The current state of research is that most of the denitrification takes place in the root zone. The lack of organic carbon and oxic conditions probably prevent denitrification in the drainage zone, with the exception of microsites with high organic carbon content. Nevertheless, due to the potentially large thickness of the drainage zone and the associated long travel time of the nitrate, some nitrate could be degraded on its way to the groundwater.

To date, there is no model that can accurately predict denitrification in the drainage zone. Most models completely ignore the fact that nitrate could be degraded in this zone. The few models that do consider denitrification in the drainage zone rely on knowledge from the topsoil. Due to the differences between the root zone and the underlying drainage zone, this approach may be overestimate denitrification rates in the drainage zone. Therefore, there is a need for a model that simulates denitrification in the drainage zone. In the DeniDrain project, we will adapt existing models to the conditions in the drainage zone using actual denitrification rates from soils across Germany.

How to cite: Schoner, D., Westphal, J., Well, R., Buchen-Tschiskale, C., and Stange, F.: The demand for an accurate model of the denitrification process in the drainage zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11713, 2025.

EGU25-13103 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

The assessment of the hydro-dispersive properties of a Nature-based Solutions porous media 

Ludovica Presta, Michele Turco, Giuseppe Brunetti, Christine Stumpp, and Patrizia Piro

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are becoming very popular in literature as a promising strategy for adapting to climate change and manage stormwater in urban environment with numerous beneficial synergies. Although the benefits of using NbS, these systems are not as widespread as they should be because the water flow and solute transport dynamics are strongly dependent on the hydro dispersive properties of the medium which are not easy to determine.

In this way, this work presents several experimental investigations coupled with numerical analysis to define the hydro-dispersive properties of two soil substrates usually used in the drainage packages of Nbs.

Thus, to define the Soil Water Retention Curve (SWRC) and the Unsaturated Hydraulic Conductivity Curve (UHCC) the Hyprop device based on the modified evaporation method has been used. The traditional constrained van Genuchten-Mualem model has been used to fit the experimental points measured from the evaporation method.

Results from this experiment shown the goodness of the estimated hydraulic parameters values assessed with the traditional constrained van Genuchten-Mualem model, and this was confirmed by the low uncertainties of the individual parameters, indicated by the 95% confidence limits for the parameter values obtained, which were narrow as well as the curves goodness of fit described by the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) which was very low.

Solute transport in the soil is governed by two main processes: advection and dispersion, both of which are essential for understanding the dynamics of contamination and solute mobility. In this way, to determine the longitudinal dispersivity (DL) of the investigated porous media, which is a key factor in solute transport dynamics, two saturated soil columns were injected with a natural tracer (deuterium) to characterize non-reactive solute transport in the substrates. Results from these experiments show a complex interaction between a mobile and an immobile domain, as indicated by the breakthrough curves' notable tailing. Finally, the inverse parameter estimation of the HYDRUS-1D model was applied to the experimental data obtained from the soil column experiment to assess the DL. The inverse optimization results have shown that the equilibrium models used in the optimization phase remained dependable in this instance, despite the breakthrough curves displaying notable tailing behaviour, indicating the presence of a complex interaction between the mobile and immobile flow domains.

How to cite: Presta, L., Turco, M., Brunetti, G., Stumpp, C., and Piro, P.: The assessment of the hydro-dispersive properties of a Nature-based Solutions porous media, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13103, 2025.

Transport in porous media on the Darcy scale can be both Fickian and non-Fickian, an outcome dependent on the degree of homogeneity of the hydraulic conductivity pattern, as well as the boundary conditions and flow rate. The non-Fickian manifestation promotes the formation of preferential pathways that funnel the transport, which occurs in both weakly and strongly heterogeneous domains. We model Darcy-scale transport in a lognormally distributed conductivity field with varying hetrogeneity. We find that the resulting preferential pathways tend to split into more pathways (bifurcations), leaving regions into which particles do not invade, which we refer to as “under sampled regions” (USR), while forming a tortuous path. The fraction of bifurcations decreases downstream, reaching an asymptotic value, with a trend that can be fitted as a power-law of the variance. We show that the same power-law exponent relating the bifurcations to the variance holds true for the USR fraction, tortuosity, and fractal dimension with the same variance. An extension of our work is also presented for varying correlation length of the conductivity spatial distribution. We further expand our analysis to a case of impermeable fraction in a uniform conductivity field and show that the power-law fit still holds. We accompany this analysis with a Shannon entropy on the flow and find that there is a correlation between the scaling parameters and entropy change in the field.

How to cite: Edery, Y. and Dagan, A.: Bifurcating paths: the relation between preferential pathways, channel splitting, under-sampled regions, and tortuosity on the Darcy scale, and their relation to flow entropy. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15378, 2025.

EGU25-16677 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Understanding seasonal variability in shrink-swell clay soils and the impact on parameterisation of soil-water mass transfer models 

Matthew Pitt, Andrea Momblanch, Robert Simmons, Alister Leggatt, and Danny Coffey

In soils exhibiting bi-modal porosity, such as shrink-swell clays, understanding the impact of seasonal variability on water movement is crucial for stakeholders. These clay soils alter their structure based on moisture content, bulging and swelling at higher moisture levels or shrinking and cracking during drier periods.

Within soil water models, this seasonal variation of soil parameters is not captured. Saturated hydraulic conductivity and porosity are considered as fixed values. Our hypothesis is that during the winter season simpler modelling approaches, such as single porosity models, can be applied using focused parameterisation and that more complex modelling approaches may be overfitting. During summer, when cracking of these soils is more prevalent, dual permeability approaches should be more adequate and capture the system complexity required. Evaluating the adequacy of these models is vital for identifying critical system controls and for scaling up findings to broader catchment models.

To test this hypothesis, we calibrated and validated single-porosity, dual-porosity, and dual-permeability mass transfer models under dry and wet conditions across three sites using HYDRUS-2D/3D. Volumetric soil moisture data was collected using Delta-T PR2 SDI-12 probes to a depth of 1 m. Parameterization involved field sampling of intact soil cores to 60 cm depth in summer and winter, analysed using laboratory methods (KSAT and HYPROP-2, METER). Additional parameters for dual-permeability models were derived through inverse estimation modelling from field infiltration tests. To determine which model is better able to represent the physical reality under dry and wet conditions, we jointly assessed their performance and complexity/parsimony using Bayesian approaches as parameters are not independent.

This study provides insights into the behaviour of the shrink-swell clay soils in these catchments, offering guidance on their conceptualization and model adjustments to better capture seasonal variability. In catchments such as the River Beane, up to 35% of soils are classified Hanslope clay overlying chalk. These chalk aquifers are critical for drinking water supply and sustaining river baseflows. Therefore, the project outputs are essential for understanding seasonal recharge and support effective water resource management. 

How to cite: Pitt, M., Momblanch, A., Simmons, R., Leggatt, A., and Coffey, D.: Understanding seasonal variability in shrink-swell clay soils and the impact on parameterisation of soil-water mass transfer models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16677, 2025.

EGU25-18536 | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Towards functional characterization of soil pore size distribution using shear-thinning fluids: challenges and prospects   

Martin Lanzendörfer, Martin Slavík, and Soheil Safari Anarkouli

Due to the immense complexity of porous structure of soils, a proper level of complexity reduction is fundamental to any continuum modeling approach, ranging from one parameter characteristics, such as the Darcy law, to the overwhelming virtual representations, such as pore network models or even full-pore-space geometry characterisations. The role of various levels of reduced descriptions is crucial not only for the practical purpose of representing and simulating the particular functional behavior of given soil based on measurable properties, but also because they may inspire our understanding of the processes involved and, in particular, the changes and interaction of various soil properties.

We are interested in non-Newtonian porosimetry approach, introduced previously by other authors, which allows quantifying the functional pore size distribution of porous medium based on saturated flow experiments using (yield-stress and/or) shear-thinning fluids, such as xanthan gum aqueous solutions. The functional pore size distribution has been defined by the capillary bundle model of the flow through the porous medium and is related to various other (saturated and unsaturated) hydrological properties of the soil. The framework offers interesting potential applications both in the laboratory and in field, as it allows for nondestructive measurements that are not restricted to very small samples. In the poster, we focus on the method introduced previously by (Abou Najm, Atallah, 2016). We will discuss some interesting aspects of the concept (such as the relation to different definitions of pore size) along with some related issues (such as the sensitivity of the inverse problem to the measurement errors or the observed polymer entrapment). We will also touch on more potential applications, such as (Slavík, Lanzendörfer, 2024).

Abou Najm, M.R., Atallah, N.M., 2016. Vadose Zone Journal 15. https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2015.06.0092
Slavík, M., and Lanzendörfer, M. 2024. Hydrology 11(9):133. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11090133

 

How to cite: Lanzendörfer, M., Slavík, M., and Safari Anarkouli, S.: Towards functional characterization of soil pore size distribution using shear-thinning fluids: challenges and prospects  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18536, 2025.

EGU25-18846 | Orals | HS8.3.6

Modeling investigations of PFAS transport through variably-saturated glacial sediments 

Klaus Mosthaf, Laura Morsing, Nika Bilic, Henning Wienkenjohann, Annika S. Fjordbøge, and Poul L. Bjerg

Understanding the fate and transport of PFAS in the subsurface is essential for groundwater and contaminated site management. Most international studies focused on the transport in homogeneous sands, while other hydrogeological settings are less well studied. In this contribution, we investigate the impact of different glacial geological settings typically found in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly containing fractures and heterogeneities, on PFAS leaching through unsaturated glacial sediments.

We have implemented a vertical cross-section model that simulates transient groundwater flow and PFAS transport through the variably-saturated zone, accounting for sorption to the solid phase and to air-water interfaces. The model was tested on measured breakthrough curve data from saturated and unsaturated laboratory column experiments considering PFAS with different chain lengths. Model parameters were obtained from a comprehensive literature review, laboratory studies, and field investigations of contaminated sites.

The model was used to investigate the leaching of PFAS with different chain lengths through different setups with glacial sediment. We observed that the hydrogeological setting determines the magnitude of the air-water interfacial area and, thus, the retention of surface-active PFAS like PFOS and PFOA. Further, the model outcomes demonstrated a chromatographic separation of PFAS with different chain lengths due to different retention mechanisms. The longer-chained PFAS were retained more strongly in the unsaturated zone, while shorter-chained compounds were mobile.

Low-permeability clay-rich layers and inclusions generally provided less retention for surface-active PFAS due to a typically higher water saturation and, thus, smaller interfacial area compared to high-permeability media like sands. Fractures and heterogeneities may lead to the formation of preferential flow paths and thereby a potential bypassing of the unsaturated zone, where sorption to the air-water interface could occur. On the other hand, matrix diffusion may slow the rate of plume expansion by retaining PFAS in low-permeability layers. Over time, back diffusion from the matrix can result in long-term release to the groundwater.

The modeling investigations based on realistic data conducted in this study led to an improved understanding of the transport of short- and longer-chained PFAS in variably saturated glacial geological settings. Our findings allowed analyzing the influence of key parameters and processes on PFAS fate and transport.

How to cite: Mosthaf, K., Morsing, L., Bilic, N., Wienkenjohann, H., Fjordbøge, A. S., and Bjerg, P. L.: Modeling investigations of PFAS transport through variably-saturated glacial sediments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18846, 2025.

EGU25-18847 | ECS | Posters on site | HS8.3.6

Event-based high-resolution monitoring of pesticides at a cash crop site 

Selina Hillmann, Matthias Bockstiegel, Juan Carlos Richard-Cerda, and Stephan Schulz

Pesticides applied in agriculture often infiltrate into the vadose zone, and flushing events due to rainfall and irrigation can enhance their percolation to groundwater. Understanding the transport dynamics and persistence of these substances in soil is essential, as these compounds can contaminate aquifers, and thus threatening groundwater quality.
This study investigates pesticide mobility, sorption and degradation at a cash crop sites within the Hessian Ried, located south of Frankfurt in Germany.

To study the fate of pesticides, two high-resolution monitoring stations were established on agricultural fields. Soil water samples are collected at varying depths (10 cm, 20 cm, 50 cm, 150 cm, and shallow groundwater) using glass suction cups. This depth-resolved sampling approach will provide insights into the movement and persistence of pesticides in the soil and their possible infiltration into the groundwater.  Furthermore, major ions and trace elements concentrations are measured in the unsaturated zone and in groundwater in eight different depths ranging from 2.30 m b.g.l. to 3.35 m b.g.l. Soil water content is measured using a soil water content profile sensor, while groundwater level and temperature are monitored through a 4-meter-deep hand-drilled well.

The findings help understanding the extent of contamination risks, allowing to design better management practices to protect groundwater quality in the region.

How to cite: Hillmann, S., Bockstiegel, M., Richard-Cerda, J. C., and Schulz, S.: Event-based high-resolution monitoring of pesticides at a cash crop site, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18847, 2025.

EGU25-18870 | Orals | HS8.3.6

Thermodynamic Controls on Dynamic Soil Configuration and Non-uniform Infiltration Processes 

Conrad Jackisch, Svenja Hoffmeister, Sophie Marie Stephan, and Erwin Zehe

Non-uniform infiltration is a very common observation and one manifestation of non-diffusive physics in soil-water processes. It is posing a fundamental challenge to conventional Darcy-scale approaches in soil-water processes, revealing limitations in our current understanding of complex soil-water interactions. While infiltration is fundamental to many ecohydrologic and hydropedologic aspects, its manifestation through structured soil and dynamically connected flow paths demands a more sophisticated system description.

Through a series of plot-scale irrigation experiments, we characterized infiltration flow fields based on observed soil moisture, tracers and time-lapse GPR data. Based on these data we conceptualised a thermodynamic representation for characterizing soil-water dynamics and their interactions. We observe celerity distributions in flow fields shifting to higher values with higher antecedent soil moisture. We also see shifting soil reconfigurations in precipitation events. 

In the view of soil water dynamics as dissipative processes, we propose that these dynamic soil configurations systematically adapt to meet the system's dissipation demands. The thermodynamic perspective offers new insights into the physical constraints governing soil-water dynamics and provides a theoretical foundation for improved and scaleable prediction of non-uniform flow processes. Our results contribute to an advanced understanding of soil-water constitutive laws under non-equilibrium conditions and may help bridge the gap between observed soil-water dynamics and their representation in models.

How to cite: Jackisch, C., Hoffmeister, S., Stephan, S. M., and Zehe, E.: Thermodynamic Controls on Dynamic Soil Configuration and Non-uniform Infiltration Processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18870, 2025.

EGU25-18992 | Orals | HS8.3.6

Using in-situ monitoring and modeling to characterize isotope effects in nitrate cycling at an agricultural site 

Juan Carlos Richard-Cerda, Stephan Schulz, and Kay Knöller

Stable isotopes of nitrate (δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-) are powerful tools for tracing nitrogen sources and understanding transformation processes in soil-water systems. The isotopic composition of nitrogen and oxygen evolves due to isotope effects, which characterize processes such as nitrification and denitrification whilst offering insights into the environmental factors driving these reactions. Although isotope effects are often derived from laboratory experiments under controlled conditions, this study aims to derive them in situ within a dynamic natural system, where varying redox conditions, inflows, and substrate availability introduce complexities absent in controlled environments.

Combining high-resolution hydrochemical and stable isotopic monitoring of nitrate and water with numerical modeling and particle tracking using HYDRUS, we investigate the spatial variability of nitrogen transformations within an agricultural soil profile. Preliminary results indicate that nitrification, with nitrate concentrations exceeding 200 mg·l-1, is prominent in the upper soil layers and exhibits isotopic signatures (δ15N = 4.2‰ ±0.9‰) characteristic of soil nitrogen, likely derived from the immobilization of applied fertilizer. Denitrification, reducing concentrations to as low as 0.2 mg·l-1, occurs primarily within the capillary fringe, generating a linear Δδ18O:Δδ15N trajectory with a slope of 0.79 and a field based apparent isotopic enrichment factor for nitrogen of ε = -4.8‰. Below this zone, regions dominated by nitrification on denitrification exhibit curved Δδ18O:Δδ15N trajectories, highlighting the incorporation of oxygen from ambient water during re-nitrification.

How to cite: Richard-Cerda, J. C., Schulz, S., and Knöller, K.: Using in-situ monitoring and modeling to characterize isotope effects in nitrate cycling at an agricultural site, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18992, 2025.

HS9 – Erosion, sedimentation & river processes

EGU25-528 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Application of Machine Learning for Predicting the Trapping Efficiency of Vortex Tube Silt Ejectors 

Sanjeev Kumar and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

A vortex tube silt ejector is employed to extract sediments from the canal. It consists of a duct laid across the whole bed of the canal with a slit along its top edge, and compared to the other alternative sediment-extraction devices, it is very efficient and economical. A Vortex Tube silt ejector is a device that is used to remove unwanted sediment from the irrigation and power canal. The vortex tube basically removes the sediment particle with the rotational action of the entered flow and receives it to the escaped channel. In this study, M5P, M5Rules, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Method (GBM) approaches were employed to predict the trapping efficiency of the vortex tube ejector. Data was obtained by conducting experiments on the vortex tube silt ejector. The input data set consists of sediment size (mm), the concentration of sediment (ppm), the ratio of slit thickness and diameter of the tube (t/d), and extraction ratio (%), whereas trapping efficiency (%) was considered as output. The comparative analyses with conventional models reveal that the GBM outperforms the other ML models, achieving a Coefficient of Correlation (CC) of 0.9985, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.769, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.531, indicating superior accuracy with lessor errors. 

How to cite: Kumar, S. and Ojha, C. S. P.: Application of Machine Learning for Predicting the Trapping Efficiency of Vortex Tube Silt Ejectors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-528, 2025.

EGU25-650 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Deep learning for planform predictions of braided rivers 

Antonio Magherini, Erik Mosselman, Víctor Chavarrías, and Riccardo Taormina

Braided rivers are the most dynamic type of rivers, with a rapid and intricate morphological evolution. A limited understanding and inadequate algorithm implementation of specific morphological processes limits the prediction capabilities of physics-based models. The design of structures, infrastructure, and other interventions is consequently hampered. In recent years artificial intelligence (AI) techniques rapidly gained popularity across different contexts. Additionally, the availability of satellite images increased. This research sets a novel attempt to predict the planform evolution of braided rivers by means of deep learning and satellite images. The Brahmaputra-Jamuna River, in India and Bangladesh, was selected as case study. A convolutional neural network (CNN) with U-Net architecture was developed. The model was trained with the Global Surface Water Dataset (GSWD). The goal of the model was to classify each pixel as either "Non-water" or "Water". Four images, representative of the same month over four consecutive years, were used as input. The fifth-year image represented the target. The model demonstrated good skills in predicting the planform development. Processes like the migration of meanders, the abandonment of channels, and the evolution of confluences and bifurcations were often well captured. However, a lack of temporal patterns was noticed. More complex phenomena, like the formation and shifting of channels, were never predicted. The total areas of erosion and deposition were constantly underpredicted. Metrics such as precision, recall, F1-score, and critical success index (CSI) were tracked. Overall, our model achieved a 5-6% total improvement of these metrics compared to the benchmark method for which no morphological change is assumed to occur. Our model could be useful as a preliminary tool for water management authorities in India and Bangladesh. It can support the prioritisation of bank protection measures in areas subject to erosion or land reclamation projects in areas subject to deposition and assist inland navigation. Given the inherent tendency of the model to underpredict erosion, caution is always advised. More research is required to improve the current model. Despite this, deep-learning modelling could become a potentially valuable field of research. Testing alternative model architectures, increasing the datasets size, and incorporating additional data, such as water levels or river discharge, are some of the proposed strategies to improve the model performance.

How to cite: Magherini, A., Mosselman, E., Chavarrías, V., and Taormina, R.: Deep learning for planform predictions of braided rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-650, 2025.

EGU25-674 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Sediment Grain Size Distribution Induced by Wave Motion Over an Adversely Sloping Sand Bed 

Kaushik Mondal, Susanta Chaudhuri, Vikas Das, Koustuv Debnath, and Bijoy Mazumder

This study explores the effect of waves on sediment beds of known grain size distribution through controlled experiments for simulating coastal environments based on laboratory experiments. The experimental setup replicates flat and adversely sloping bed conditions, comprising sediments of bimodal grain-size distribution to assess changes in distribution under surface waves of different frequencies. The results demonstrate a significant modulation from an initial bimodal to an unimodal grain size distribution in the sloping bed. In contrast, the original size distribution is retained in the flatbed. Statistical analyses revealed a noticeable shift towards finer grains in the sloping area, driven by wave-induced sorting mechanisms. An interesting result is that the observed grain-size distribution follows the Gaussian distribution around the junction because both coefficients of skewness and kurtosis show zero, irrespective of studied wave frequencies. These outcomes align with previous research, contributing to a deeper understanding of sediment transport and grain size distribution in coastal zones. In addition, prototype field photographs of bed form due to low tidal waves show immense similarities with the ripple morphology along the upward slope generated in the laboratory flume. Moreover, the concentration of heavier coarse fractions of grains occasionally dropped at the trough regions of the fine-grained ripples of lunate shapes. The study insights are valuable for improving coastal management strategies, particularly in areas vulnerable to sediment redistribution and erosion.

How to cite: Mondal, K., Chaudhuri, S., Das, V., Debnath, K., and Mazumder, B.: Sediment Grain Size Distribution Induced by Wave Motion Over an Adversely Sloping Sand Bed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-674, 2025.

EGU25-820 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Modelling Density-Driven Secondary Flow with a 2-D Depth-Integrated Model: Insights from the Yangtze River-Poyang Lake Confluence 

Tommaso Lazzarin, Lei Xu, Saiyu Yuan, Ton Hoitink, and Daniele P. Viero

In river confluences, the two branches may have different water temperatures and sediment loads, which induce strong transverse density gradients. These gradients, in turn, drive the formation of secondary currents, which interact with those generated by channel curvature. Specifically, density gradients can either enhance or counteract curvature-induced secondary flows, and their impacts on flow and sediment transport require proper modelling approaches. Three-dimensional (3D) models naturally account for these dynamics and provide detailed predictions of flow and temperature fields, but cannot be applied to long-term morphodynamic simulations because of prohibitive computational demand. By contrast, traditional two-dimensional (2D) models are computationally more efficient, but do not account for 3D flow structures that are particularly relevant for river confluences. To fill the gap, a 2D depth-integrated hydro-morphodynamic model is enhanced, through appropriate parametrization, to account for the density-driven secondary flows and their effects on the flow field, mixing, sediment redistribution and, ultimately, on the morphodynamic evolution of the riverbed.

The enhanced 2D model is applied to the Yangtze River-Poyang Lake confluence, where field measurements have shown that temperature-induced density gradients play a critical role in shaping flow patterns, secondary currents, and the riverbed evolution. Interestingly, these effects vary throughout the year due to seasonal differences in temperature and discharge between the two branches of the confluence. Density-induced secondary currents, which superimpose or modify the curvature-induced helical flows, develop at the confluence apex where the two streams merge. Their inclusion in the 2D modelling framework improves the agreement of numerical results with ADCP field measurements, thus supporting the reliability of the model.

The efficiency of the 2D model, combined with its ability to represent key physical processes through the parametrization of density-driven effects, also allows to perform long-term simulations with mobile bed conditions. These simulations highlight the significant role of secondary flows, driven by both streamline curvature and spanwise density gradients, in sediment transport and bed morphology at the river confluence, confirming that the enhanced 2D model is a valuable tool for long-term morphodynamic studies in large river systems.

How to cite: Lazzarin, T., Xu, L., Yuan, S., Hoitink, T., and Viero, D. P.: Modelling Density-Driven Secondary Flow with a 2-D Depth-Integrated Model: Insights from the Yangtze River-Poyang Lake Confluence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-820, 2025.

EGU25-1045 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Study of Grain Size Variation of Non-Uniform Sloping Sediment Bed and Associated Flow Turbulence 

Sagnik Jha, Susanta Chaudhuri, Vikas Kumar Das, Bijoy Singha Mazumder, and Koustuv Debnath

Human interventions in riverine systems, such as the construction of cross-drainage structures, significantly alter hydrodynamic and related sediment transport processes, leading to siltation, riverbank instability, and sediment flushing. These changes disrupt bed sediment characteristics and near-bed flow turbulence, thereby imposing a considerable modification to bed roughness and flow-induced transport mechanisms that enforce a threat to the overall natural health of the river. This is particularly pertinent during the present-day Anthropocene era, while human interventions and activities are imposing a significant impact on riverine systems. Despite numerous studies on sediment sorting in non-cohesive beds, there is limited understanding of the physical processes governing the initial movement of heterogeneous non-uniform sediment beds composed of silt, sand, and gravel on sloping beds. The present laboratory-based flume study aims to investigate the incipient motion and critical Shields parameter for sloping sediment beds inclined at 4.8° towards downstream. The sediment bed consists of mixtures of fine sand, coarse sand, and gravel. A fixed discharge generated unidirectional flow, and the evolution of bed morphology was monitored until a quasi-equilibrium state was reached. Instantaneous velocity data was acquired using a 16 MHz micro-ADV, while high-precision video recording captured particle motion. The spatial and morphological characteristics of evolved bed forms were measured with a digital vernier gauge. The study reveals that sediment composition and near-bed flow turbulence strongly influence the critical Shields parameter and incipient motion thresholds. The variation in sediment sorting, bed form evolution, and flow turbulence enhances non-uniform flow conditions, contributing to significant changes in sediment transport dynamics. The findings provide insights into sediment bed behavior, helping inform engineering practices to mitigate siltation at dam and barrage sites.

How to cite: Jha, S., Chaudhuri, S., Das, V. K., Mazumder, B. S., and Debnath, K.: Study of Grain Size Variation of Non-Uniform Sloping Sediment Bed and Associated Flow Turbulence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1045, 2025.

 

 

In recent decades, global watershed surface processes have undergone significant alterations due to a complex interplay of factors, including global warming and human-induced stressors. Changes in river morphology serve as crucial indicators of the long-term dynamic evolution of rivers and their associated environmental impacts.

 

Existing studies have predominantly focused on changes in river morphology, with limited attention given to regions exhibiting lateral stability. This study introduces a novel river morphology change index and applies it to overlay analysis of river morphology in the Pearl River basin spanning several decades. By quantifying areas of stable, expanding, and diminishing river morphology, the study unveils the patterns of morphological change in the region. The findings reveal a trend of increasing stability in the Pearl River's morphology, extending from its source to its mouth, driven by progressive human intervention. While such interventions enhance river stability in the short term, the hardening of channels may reduce their effectiveness in managing floods during extreme climatic events (e.g., heavy rainfall), potentially exacerbating flood risks.

 

Through a case study of the Pearl River Basin, this paper underscores the vital importance of retaining wide river corridors and restoring natural riverbed morphology configurations in maintaining natural geomorphology. It further proposes recommendations for optimizing river management and disaster prevention and mitigation.

 

How to cite: yang, Z.: Satellite observations of surface water dynamics and channel morphology in the Pearl River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1335, 2025.

EGU25-2995 | Orals | HS9.2

Field Observations on Flocculation of Suspended Sediment in Coastal Algal Reef Environments 

Zhi-Cheng Huang, Tian-Jian Hsu, and Trung Nguyen Ly

Sediment flocculation in subaqueous environments is vital for morphodynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and ecological processes; however, the effects of biophysical cohesion on flocs are not well understood or quantified. This study provides quantitative field evidence that suspended sediments on a coastal algal reef primarily flocculate due to bio-cohesion. Measurements of mass and volume concentrations of suspended sediment and turbulent Reynolds stresses were performed at various heights above the seabed using Optical Backscatter Sensors (OBSs), Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISSTs), and Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADVs). Observed mass concentration profiles were compared with Rouse's law. Results indicate that while mass concentration decreases as expected with height, volume concentration increases away from the bed. Notably, mass concentration profiles align with the Rouse formula when assuming a settling velocity for flocculated sediment rather than non-cohesive sediment. Microscope images confirmed sediment flocculation, likely due to bio-cohesion. Direct measurements showed that particle effective density depends on mean particle diameter. Regression analysis determines a three-dimensional fractal dimension of 2.18. The reduced effective density and low fractal dimension are characteristic of flocs comprising lower-density saltwater and organic materials. The organic content was determined using the weight loss on ignition method.  We found that organic content negatively correlates with effective density and positively correlates with the mean particle diameter, reinforcing the role of bio-cohesion in flocculation. Further information on the findings is published in "Field evidence of flocculated sediments on a coastal algal reef," Volume 6, Article 8, Communications Earth & Environment, 2025.

How to cite: Huang, Z.-C., Hsu, T.-J., and Ly, T. N.: Field Observations on Flocculation of Suspended Sediment in Coastal Algal Reef Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2995, 2025.

EGU25-3151 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Suspended sediment transport during the unprecedented flood in southern Brazil 

Hugo Fagundes, Alice Fassoni-Andrade, Daniel Maciel, Vinicius Silva, Renata Rossoni, José Rafael Cavalcanti, Marina Fagundes, Maurício Paixão, and Fernando Fan

The biggest Brazilian rainfall event occurred in May 2024 affecting millions of people. The damage caused includes several deaths and other social issues, billions in economic losses, and massive environmental devastation with more than 10,000 landslides and sediment settling in flat areas. In this context of extreme events, we aimed to estimate the suspended sediment transport in the Guaíba basin during this unprecedented flood. We used the model for large basins MGB-SED and daily precipitation to compute sediment erosion, transport and deposition. The model was calibrated considering the historical period, prioritizing the adequate representation of extreme events, resulting in KGE values higher than 0.4 in the main sediment stations. For the first time, our results provided sediment yield estimates for this event: 5 million tons of suspended sediment were delivered to Guaíba from April 27 to June 17, 2024. The Taquari River was the tributary that transported the most suspended sediment, reaching a peak of 554,500 tons on May 2, which is five times greater than the highest simulated peak in the historical period. After the event, a large deposition of coarse sediments in the lowland areas, silting up the rivers and islands was widely reported. Despite this, we observed from satellite images that the morphological changes (e.g. bank erosion and the appearance/ changes in sand banks) along the main channels were insignificant compared to the event scale. We conclude that, even in the face of the unprecedented sediment and water flow, these rivers demonstrate a bank stability condition and high suspended sediment transport capacity, even suggesting an equilibrium condition.

How to cite: Fagundes, H., Fassoni-Andrade, A., Maciel, D., Silva, V., Rossoni, R., Cavalcanti, J. R., Fagundes, M., Paixão, M., and Fan, F.: Suspended sediment transport during the unprecedented flood in southern Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3151, 2025.

EGU25-3768 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

modeling laboratory-scale unsteady flow hydrographs: bed shear stress and sediment transport on rough surfaces 

florent Grattepanche, Guillaume Gomit, Damien Calluaud, Dominique Courret, and Pierre Sagnes

Hydroelectric dams represent the primary source of renewable energy in France but have a significant impact on the proper functioning of aquatic ecosystems by disrupting the ecological continuity of rivers. Indeed, these structures interfere with sediment transport by reducing sediment availability in downstream sections and causing major disruptions to the morphology and ecology of the environment. To offset this deficit, spawning ground restoration operations can be carried out to replenish sediments. Predicting sediment transport, particularly the remobilization of these sediments, is of paramount importance in order to accurately assess the durability of the inputs and their ecological effectiveness.

To better understand and quantify these phenomena, which are often difficult to measure in reality, experimental laboratory models are developed to replicate the hydrodynamic and sedimentary conditions observed in the field through scaling techniques. This development of the experimental model relies on preserving the Froude number (hydraulic) and the Shields parameter (sedimentary). These parameters enable the reproduction of flood hydrographs, river roughness, and the size of recharging sediments at the study site on a laboratory scale. A characterization of the hydrodynamic parameters on a rough bottom was then carried out using Particle image velocimetry (PIV), enabling the bottom shear stress to be estimated and compared with the displacement of localized sediment input.

How to cite: Grattepanche, F., Gomit, G., Calluaud, D., Courret, D., and Sagnes, P.: modeling laboratory-scale unsteady flow hydrographs: bed shear stress and sediment transport on rough surfaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3768, 2025.

EGU25-4353 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Improving Water Level Predictions in 2D Hydraulic Models: Optimizing Low-Resolution Meshes 

parisa khorsandi kuhanestani, Anouk Bomers, Martijn Booij, and Suzanne Hulscher

Accurately predicting river water levels is essential for effective environmental and water resource management, particularly in flood mitigation, drought forecasting, and infrastructure planning. Two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models are widely used for simulating water levels, but achieving high accuracy remains a challenge due to uncertainties related to input data, model structures, technical configurations like mesh design, and parameters such as roughness. Mesh configuration plays a pivotal role in shaping bathymetry, influencing discharge capacity, and determining water levels. While high-resolution meshes deliver greater accuracy, they often come at the cost of longer computational times. In contrast, low-resolution meshes are computationally efficient but can introduce significant errors, requiring complex calibrations that may struggle to handle extreme flow conditions effectively.

This study adapts a novel developed algorithm, first for hypothetical river systems, and then to real-world applications. The method adjusts the elevation of individual mesh nodes, ensuring that the flow volume in low-resolution meshes aligns with high-resolution riverbed data. By improving mesh accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency, this innovative approach addresses mesh-related errors and enhances model reliability. The modified low-resolution mesh was tested through hydraulic simulations and validated against real-world measurements.

Results demonstrate that the modified low-resolution mesh produces water level predictions up to 50% closer to observed measurements compared to the original low-resolution mesh. This significant improvement underscores the potential of the algorithm to enhance prediction accuracy. The findings contribute to advancing hydraulic modeling by optimizing mesh configurations and hold broader implications for flood management and water resource planning. By improving the reliability of water level simulations, this research supports more informed and effective environmental management strategies.

How to cite: khorsandi kuhanestani, P., Bomers, A., Booij, M., and Hulscher, S.: Improving Water Level Predictions in 2D Hydraulic Models: Optimizing Low-Resolution Meshes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4353, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4353, 2025.

Hydraulic jumps play a critical role in the design of energy dissipation stilling basins. Although hydraulic jumps are inherently three-dimensional (3D) phenomena, they have traditionally been studied using one-dimensional (1D) approaches. In previous, enginners and researchers have relied primarily on 1D and 3D models to analyze hydraulic jumps. While 3D models provide high accuracy, they are also computationally expensive, and 1D models some how fail to capture the vortices and lateral flow effects inherent in hydraulic jumps. Two-dimensional (2D) models offer a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy, making them a promising alternative. This study seeks to evaluate the capability of a 2D hydraulic model to simulate experiments on abrupt expansion stilling basins, as well as to assess its applications and limitations. By focusing on critical design parameters, such as the expansion width ratio, inlet eccentricity, and inlet angle, the research aims to identify optimal designs that maximize energy dissipation through simulations of various parameter combinations. Preliminary findings reveal that energy dissipation efficiency stabilizes once the expansion width ratio surpasses a certain threshold, showing no significant further improvement. In the case of inlet eccentricity, adjustments are evaluated individually to ensure that the inlet is not centered and that the inlet wall does not overlap with the outlet wall. For the inlet angle, an optimal configuration is observed to vary based on the tailwater conditions. Ongoing work aims to validate the relationships between energy dissipation efficiency and the interplay of these parameters.

How to cite: Lin, P.-J. and You, J.-Y.: The Investigation of a Two-Dimensional Numerical Model for Characterizing Energy Dissipation Efficiency in Stilling Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5739, 2025.

The hydrological and sediment transport regimes of Mediterranean river basins are critical for effective water resource management, especially in regions vulnerable to land degradation and erosion. This study investigates the Seman River Basin in Albania, employing the WASA-SED (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments – SEDiments) model to simulate flow and sediment dynamics. Daily data on precipitation, temperature, soil properties, land use, discharge, and suspended sediment concentrations were used to quantify runoff and sediment yields in the basin. Results demonstrate a strong correlation between rainfall intensity, land surface cover, and sediment transport, with notable seasonal variations in runoff. Sediment deposition within the basin significantly reduces the storage capacity of local dams, aggravating water resource challenges. Additionally, land use changes, particularly deforestation and agricultural expansion, exacerbate sedimentation and impact the hydrological regime. This study provides valuable insights into the sediment dynamics and hydrological processes of Mediterranean river basins, offering a predictive tool for water resource management and sediment mitigation strategies. The findings underscore the need for sustainable land and water management practices in the Balkans and similar environments.

How to cite: Doko, A., Francke, T., and Bronstert, A.: Analyzing Hydrological and Sediment Transport Patterns in the Seman River Basin, Albania, Using the WASA-SED Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5927, 2025.

Riverbank erosion is a significant contributor to sediment transport in rivers and a key factor shaping river ecosystems, which are affected by natural and human activities. Its dynamics depend on a variety of factors, including river flow, water levels, soil properties and composition, groundwater flow, topography, climate, soil moisture, temperature, and vegetation. The main drivers of riverbank erosion are particle detachment by water flow, gravity-induced mass failure, and seepage erosion. While these processes shape river channels and floodplain morphology and support ecological functions like habitat creation, they also pose risks such as land degradation and infrastructure damage.  In seasonally frozen rivers, bank erosion dynamics are further complicated by unique climatic and hydrogeomorphic conditions, including temperature fluctuations and variations in groundwater flow. These additional processes can cause erosion by themselves and can interact with the other processes. Especially, the interactions between these factors remain poorly understood, hindering accurate predictions of bank erosion events. This study examines how topography, river stage changes, groundwater flow, soil moisture, and temperature variations affect riverbank erosion in seasonally frozen rivers. The research focuses on three objectives: (i) assessing how topography influences riverbank erosion, (ii) examining the role of river stage fluctuations and soil types in erosion processes, and (iii) analyzing the impact of freeze-thaw cycles on groundwater movement and soil stability, bank erosion. A two dimensional (2D) vertical bank erosion model was developed that integrates temperature dynamics with groundwater flow, allowing realistic simulations of temperature-induced changes in soil permeability and groundwater behavior. The framework applied with dynamic boundary conditions, offering novel insights into riverbank erosion mechanisms. The simulations were at this first stage performed by using a hypothetical riverbank geometry. First findings show that the interactions of processes can lead to temporally varying rates of erosion which cannot be understood in isolation. Bank geometry is expected to play a significant role, with some profiles more prone to collapse than others. Additionally, river stage fluctuations and dynamic soil conditions are likely to exacerbate erosion risks. These insights will support the development of predictive tools for sediment management, climate-resilient riverbank protection, and sustainable ecosystem management in cold-region rivers.

Keywords: Riverbank erosion, groundwater modeling, temperature, seasonally frozen rivers, numerical modeling, freeze-thaw cycles.

How to cite: Tedla, H. Z., Lotsari, E., and van Rooijen, E.: Riverbank erosion numerical modeling: groundwater and temperature dynamics in seasonally frozen rivers using a hypothetical bank geometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7240, 2025.

EGU25-8100 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Numerical Modeling of Cohesive Riverbanks: Current methods, challenges, and prospects 

Debora Baumann, Rebekka Kopmann, and Nils Rüther

The unexpected retreat of riverbanks can significantly influence adjacent infrastructure, floodplain usage, and ecological systems. In our increasingly populated world, where rivers are closely linked with sensitive environments, sudden morphological changes have to be incorporated into planning processes. Changes in the riverbank depend on various factors, including soil composition, pore-water pressure, ship waves, and vegetation. This results in complex erosion mechanisms which are challenging to represent in numerical models. A review of existing studies shows that cohesive banks and the occurring processes, such as the variety of failure mechanisms, the deposition of failed material, or pore-water pressure, are often neglected. This gap limits the predictive accuracy of current models in the case of cohesive banks. Therefore, representing these mechanisms with a 2D model based on the software TELEMAC-2D and considering the random instabilities would enhance the understanding of the morphological development of rivers with cohesive banks. This leads to more accurate predictions and informed decisions that benefit both human activities and ecological systems.

How to cite: Baumann, D., Kopmann, R., and Rüther, N.: Numerical Modeling of Cohesive Riverbanks: Current methods, challenges, and prospects, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8100, 2025.

EGU25-8296 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Integrating Machine Learning with ADCP Data for Advanced Sediment Transport and Hydrodynamics Monitoring 

Mohammd Tanvir Haque Tuhin and Christoph Mudersbach

Understanding sediment transport and hydrodynamic processes is critical for managing riverine and coastal systems, influencing navigation, flood risk, and sustainable sediment management. Traditional measurement approaches often rely on physical sediment sampling and manual data interpretation, which can be labour-intensive, spatially constrained, and time-consuming. This study presents a novel framework that combines Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP)-derived data with machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance the monitoring and analysis of both sediment transport and hydrodynamics in open water environments.

Our dataset includes comprehensive hydrodynamic and acoustic parameters, such as bottom track velocity (BT), signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), acoustic backscatter (AB), depth, velocity standard deviation (SD), and mean flow speed. Exploratory analysis reveals significant relationships among these features, with BT,  SNR emerging as key proxies for sediment transport and hydrodynamic variability. Notably, BT shows moderate correlations with depth (r = 0.55) and SD (r = 0.36), underscoring its utility for characterizing flow conditions and sediment dynamics.

A machine learning framework is under development to analyse these relationships and predict sediment transport and hydrodynamic parameters. Initial exploratory findings highlight patterns in hydrodynamic variability and sediment transport proxies, laying the groundwork for advanced modeling efforts. Clustering algorithms reveal distinct flow regimes, and feature correlations suggest potential for predictive modeling of sediment dynamics.

This study demonstrates the potential of leveraging ADCP data for scalable and resource-efficient sediment and hydrodynamic monitoring. By integrating laboratory and field datasets, the proposed approach aims to enhance measurement capabilities and support the calibration and validation of numerical models. The findings hold significant implications for sustainable water resource management and the development of real-time hydro-morphological monitoring frameworks in diverse open water environments.

How to cite: Tuhin, M. T. H. and Mudersbach, C.: Integrating Machine Learning with ADCP Data for Advanced Sediment Transport and Hydrodynamics Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8296, 2025.

EGU25-9624 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Investigation of the natural morphodynamic state of a Tisza river section in Hungary 

Emese Nyiri, Gergely Tihamér Török, and Krisztián Homoródi

Our research focused on the river regulation in Hungary in the 19th century, as it resulted in significant morphodynamic changes. The Tisza River was significantly meandering in its contemporary state and the regulations were used to cut through these meanders. The main question is what bank geometry and flow conditions were formed in the natural state of the river, before the regulation works?

In our research, we wanted to study a selected section of the Hungarian Tisza, where a detailed literature search revealed that there was not enough data on the contemporary condition to suitably describe the natural morphology. This led to the need to develop a procedure that would be able to map the pre-regulation condition in a way. To this end, a novel method for estimating the geometry of the riverbed was used. pyRiverbed is a tool that estimates the bankfull bed geometry based on the river's centerline and the average channel depth and width. Using the 'synthetic' geometry produced in this way, we were able to calculate flow characteristics (e.g. typical flow velocity and bed shear stress, reach-averaged bed resistance) for the pre- and post-regulation conditions using 2D flow models and compare these parameters.

Our research also aims to show the importance of studying the sediment budget of a river and its role in the variation of riverbed geometry. We believe that such a method could play a major role in future regulatory work and could also help in the preparation of regulatory plans.

How to cite: Nyiri, E., Török, G. T., and Homoródi, K.: Investigation of the natural morphodynamic state of a Tisza river section in Hungary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9624, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9624, 2025.

EGU25-9845 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

How good are sediment measurements? An integrated approach to quantifying total uncertainty in metadata-limited annual suspended sediment yield observations 

Florence Tan, Pasquale Borrelli, Hugo de Oliveira Fagundes, and Matthias Vanmaercke

Deriving sediment yield (SY) from discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) measurements is subject to multiple sources of error, including the sampling method, the sampling scheme and frequency, the load calculation method, and the measuring period. While the uncertainty from these individual sources of error has been studied in various contexts, their combined effect on SY calculations remains largely unquantified. This is mainly due to their complex and counteracting influences, the absence of detailed sampling protocol information, and the lack of true reference data. Still, estimating the total uncertainty on current and historical SY measurements is crucial to understand how these observational errors propagate in SY modelling and can impact subsequent model interpretation and decision-making.

Here, we aim to develop a tool that can provide realistic ranges of total uncertainty in SY observations worldwide for which limited metadata is reported. We do this by means of Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning. Using available long-term daily Q and SSC series, we quantify the effect of measurement-related sources of error, as well as their relative importance, on SY calculations. We apply this method on a (spatially) diverse selection of ∼180 gauging stations and further explore the relationship between SY uncertainty and catchment characteristics, including upstream area, land cover, and climate. Preliminary findings indicate that the range of uncertainty in SY calculations is mainly influenced by the sampling frequency, whereas the load calculation method and the sampling scheme can introduce important biases. Measuring errors on individual Q and SSC observations have relatively little impact on total SY uncertainty, provided that these measurements are unbiased. When considering long-term average SY, the length of the measuring period then becomes the most important source of uncertainty. Overall, the combined effect of these sources of error can lead to deviations up to three orders of magnitude from the true SY. Using these sampling-related variables and catchment characteristics derived from global hydro-environmental datasets, we further apply a gradient boosting algorithm to predict total uncertainty in annual SY and achieve a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of ∼0.76. The model resulting from this work can thus provide scientists with realistic uncertainty estimates on existing SY observations with only basic metadata information available.

How to cite: Tan, F., Borrelli, P., de Oliveira Fagundes, H., and Vanmaercke, M.: How good are sediment measurements? An integrated approach to quantifying total uncertainty in metadata-limited annual suspended sediment yield observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9845, 2025.

Abstract: Under the combined operation of upstream cascade reservoirs with the Three Gorges Project as the core and the comprehensive impact of climate change, the water and sediment conditions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have undergone significant changes, which have had a profound impact on the evolution and pattern of river-lake system. This paper takes the confluence reach of the Yangtze River Mainstream and Dongting Lake as the research object. Through the physical model(plane scale 1:400, vertical scale 1:100) experiments, the confluence process of flow and sediment and the evolution rule of erosion and deposition of the Yangtze River Mainstream and Dongting Lake outlet channel under different silt-discharge and river lake boundary conditions were explored, and the influence mechanism of different erosion and deposition conditions on the river-lake relationship was analyzed. The results indicate that considering the further scouring development of the main stream of the Yangtze River in the future, under the condition of controlling the water level at the model outlet (Luoshan station) to drop by 3m, the longitudinal gradient of the water surface in the confluence channel of Dongting Lake increased by about 20%, showing a scouring trend, and the emptying effect of the Yangtze River Mainstream on the Dongting Lake was enhanced. In addition, under the condition of controlling the flood flow of 50000m3/s at the outlet, with the increase of the confluence ratio between Dongting Lake and the Yangtze River Mainstream, the scouring intensity in the river and lake confluence area increased, and the elevation difference between the main stream and tributary riverbed increases, resulting in the increasing jacking effect of Dongting Lake outflow on the main stream. The relevant achievements can provide new insights and decision-making references for maintaining the healthy river-lake system pattern and interaction relationship in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Key words: flow and sediment variation; river-lake relations; physical model experiments; Dongting Lake; Middle reaches of the Yangtze River

How to cite: Wang, H., Yao, S., Guo, X., and Guo, C.: Influence mechanism of erosion and deposition evolution of Dongting Lake confluence channel on river-lake relationship under new water and sediment conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12100, 2025.

EGU25-12233 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

How can we better predict flow resistance in rough-bed rivers? A numerical (CFD) approach 

Taís Yamasaki, Rebecca Hodge, Richard Hardy, Robert Houseago, David Whitfield, Stephen Rice, Rob Ferguson, Christopher Hackney, Elowyn Yager, Joel Johnson, and Trevor Hoey

Predicting flow in rough-bed rivers, which are a common and important feature of upland river networks, is crucial for improved river management, as changes in flow discharge can affect sediment transport, cause flooding, and disrupt habitats. Standard grain-size approaches that predict flow resistance (e.g., D84) do not perform well in rough-bed rivers because they are unable to account for the coarse topographic features that rough-bed rivers possess, such as exposed bedrock, potholes, bedrock ribs and boulders. The flow resistance derives from the interaction of the flow and the bed topography, which causes spatial variations in pressure and form drag, and modulates the shear stress available for sediment transport. However, the extent to which different components of the bed topography affect the flow resistance is not well understood. Thus, improvements in flow resistance prediction are necessary.

One feasible approach to fill this gap is to use computational fluid dynamics (CFD), as it is able to numerically resolve the pressure at the bed, at the resolution of the grid representing the bed topography. In this work, we developed a robust, validated numerical model to simulate a series of flow discharges over three different rough-bed river beds. Our CFD model fully resolves the Navier-Stokes equations in a three-dimensional, cartesian-gridded domain. The model captures the adjustment of the free surface at the air-water interface with the volume-of-fluid method, such that the simulated flows are not constrained by low Froude numbers. The three different bed sections were reconstructed from high-resolution topographic data from bedrock rivers with smooth, intermediate and rough topography (standard deviation of the bed elevation equal to 0.043 m, 0.083 m and 0.131 m at the chosen sections, respectively). As the CFD are replicating scaled flume experiments performed with the same bed topography, the topography in the CFD has also been scaled by 1:10 from the field dimensions. For each bed, we assess the pressure distribution, pressure gradient and form drag over the beds under five different flow depths and discharges.

How to cite: Yamasaki, T., Hodge, R., Hardy, R., Houseago, R., Whitfield, D., Rice, S., Ferguson, R., Hackney, C., Yager, E., Johnson, J., and Hoey, T.: How can we better predict flow resistance in rough-bed rivers? A numerical (CFD) approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12233, 2025.

In order to study the influence of the presence of floodplain vegetations on the flow structure of compound open channels, a three-dimensional large eddy simulation model for compound open-channel flows with vegetations was established, and the flow motion of the compound open channel under the action of non-submerged vegetations was simulated. The simulation results are in good agreement with the previous numerical simulation results, indicating that the model established in this paper is reliable and effective in the numerical simulation of compound open-channel flows with vegetations. The influence of the presence of floodplain vegetations on the flow structure of compound open channels and the influence of different vegetation densities on the flow structure of compound open channels were analyzed. The results show that the presence of floodplain vegetations significantly changes the flow structure within the compound open-channel flow. Due to the presence of vegetations, the longitudinal average velocity of the floodplain decreases, the longitudinal average velocity of the main channel increases, the maximum values of turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stress at the junction of the main channel and the floodplain increase, the boundary shear stress on the main channel and the floodplain decreases, and the apparent shear stress increases. The higher the vegetation density, the smaller the longitudinal average velocity of the floodplain, the greater the intensity of the leftward shift of the maximum longitudinal average velocity of the main channel, the stronger the secondary flow, the greater the maximum values of turbulent kinetic energy and Reynolds stress near the confluence of the main channel and the floodplain, while the boundary shear stress of the main channel and the floodplain decreases, and the peak value of the apparent shear stress near the confluence of the main channel and the floodplain increases.

How to cite: Lei, Y. and Liu, G.: Large eddy simulation of flow structure of compound open channels with non-vegetated floodplain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14656, 2025.

EGU25-14657 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Water and sediment regulation in past two years at upper and middle Yellow River 

Fei Yang, Xiaofei Yan, and Qiang Wang

Drawdown flushing in reservoirs is a key scheme for reservoirs water and sediment regulation in Yellow River basin, making it possible to maintain the effective storage capacity of the reservoirs. In early September of 2023 and 2024, joint operation of key reservoirs in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River was carried out to implement sediment discharge. In 2023, the water and sediment regulation resulted in an outflow of 610 million m³ from Liujiaxia Reservoir. Four reservoirs, including Qingtongxia, Haibowan, Wanjiazhai, and Longkou, discharged a total of 75 million tons of sediment, consuming 8 m³ of water per ton of sediment. In 2024, the water and sediment regulation resulted in a water output of 1.09 billion m³ from Liujiaxia Reservoir. The five reservoirs of Shapotou, Qingtongxia, Haibowan, Wanjiazhai, and Longkou Reservoirs discharged a total of 144 million tons of sediment, consuming 7.5 m³ of water per ton of sediment. Through the practice of water and sediment regulation, it has been proven that flushing is a systematic response of reservoir deposition to the drawdown of water level. The flushing process is unsteady, and the sediment concentration at the outlet increases rapidly at first and then decreases rapidly. The scouring amount is positively correlated with the magnitude of inflow discharge and duration of drawdown. The larger the discharge, the longer the duration, and the more sediment discharge. 

How to cite: Yang, F., Yan, X., and Wang, Q.: Water and sediment regulation in past two years at upper and middle Yellow River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14657, 2025.

This study aims to develop a Lagrangian stochastic model for simulating suspended sediment transport in open channel flows. The model focuses on a pair of particles, describing the trajectories of paired particles, which are dependent on the Reynolds number. It uses relative particle velocity as a foundation for tracking sediment motion, with key factors such as separation distance and relative velocity being critical in defining particle interactions and their role in separation processes. This model captures non-Gaussian turbulence features in Eulerian statistics to construct a relative velocity probability density function. A structure-function approach is employed to derive Eulerian velocity moments from velocity increments, ensuring stable dispersion by considering relevant scale properties. The model incorporates the Langevin equation for relative velocity, consisting a drift term defined by conditional acceleration and a Eulerian probability density function, and a random term defined by a scale-dependent diffusion coefficient influenced by viscous effects, exhibiting Brownian motion properties.

The model extends the fluid particle framework to sediment particles through the principles of force balance and accounts for the resuspension mechanism for sediment particles. In sediment transport, the influence of the resuspension mechanism on the two particles must be considered. This mechanism is different from those in fluid particle models and single-particle sediment models. Additionally, the relative velocity model is transformed into an absolute velocity model, and two-particle coefficients are introduced to determine particle motion. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is employed to simulate velocity fluctuations for individual particles.

Compared to single-particle models, this two-particle stochastic model investigates turbulent sediment transport in terms of relative velocity and separation distance variations. We analyze the variation of the diffusion coefficient across scales by tuning specific parameters. Results are compared with direct numerical simulation (DNS) data across different Reynolds numbers to calibrate the model coefficients effectively. The initial findings provide valuable insights into the influence of turbulence characteristics on sediment behavior, particularly in relation to relative velocity and separation distance variations. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interactions governing sediment transport in turbulent open channel flows.

How to cite: Chen, H. Q. and Tsai, C.: Two-Particle Stochastic Model for Suspended Sediment Transport Using Spatial Relationship with Particles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15745, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15745, 2025.

study concentrates on proposing a stochastic turbulent diffusivity for fluid particles derived from diffusing diffusivity, a unique stochastic process defined as the square of the  Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. The diffusing diffusivity is assigned to be the square of time-dependent velocity fluctuations in a turbulent flow and is modeled using the fractional OU process with fractional Brownian motion (FBM). Three crucial properties from various fields are tied into this model: (1) mean-reverting behavior derived from the OU process, (2) long-term memory attributed to FBM, and (3) stochastic turbulent diffusivity for fluid particles. The first four ensemble statistics—mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis—are provided for the diffusing diffusivity to identify non-Gaussian behavior, measure the variability, and investigate the deviation from classical deterministic models.

The highlight of this study is the proposal of stochastic turbulent diffusivity for fluid particles in a turbulent flow. It is defined by multiplying the diffusing diffusivity with the Lagrangian timescale, thereby linking small-scale temporal fluctuations captured by diffusing diffusivity to the macroscopic mixing effects of turbulent diffusivity. This approach ensures dimensional consistency with deterministic turbulent diffusivity while preserving its stochastic characteristics. Additionally, higher-order structure functions and wavelet-based intermittency measures are provided to examine intermittency in turbulent flows. The former provides evidence of intermittency, and the latter captures energy bursts across scales associated with turbulent diffusing diffusivity. On the other hand, the validation is conducted against the Ergodicity Breaking parameter from theoretical stochastic analysis and turbulent velocity fluctuation data from experiments, confirming the applicability of bridging diffusing diffusivity to stochastic turbulent diffusivity.

How to cite: Shen, S. W. and Tsai, C. W.: Proposing Stochastic Turbulent Diffusivity from Diffusing Diffusivity with Fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Process and Fractional Brownian Motion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16285, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16285, 2025.

EGU25-16570 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Analyzing morphodynamics along a river widening: Applicability of different transport equations in 2D numerical modeling 

Jakob Siedersleben, Hannes Zöschg, and Martin Schletterer

Over the past two centuries, river regulation practices in Europe have significantly altered river systems through straightening, channelization and bedload retention. These modifications, coupled with the implementation of transverse structures such as hydropower facilities, have adversely affected riverine ecosystems, floodplains and sediment dynamics. River widening projects aim to address these challenges by creating more space for rivers, thereby improving the health of these natural systems. In Tyrol, Austria, between Stams and Rietz, a restoration project on the Inn River included the removal of most bank protection, the widening of the river up to 75 meters, and the creation of a dead branch and a side channel. On a length of 3 km, this measure re-established aquatic as well as terrestrial habitats. Shortly after completion, a 50-year flood event caused significant changes along the restoration zone, including the breaching of the dead branch, which subsequently connected to the main channel. These morphodynamic changes were documented using two airborne laser bathymetry (ALB) surveys and an echo-sounding survey for cross-sectional profiles.

Morphodynamic models are key tools for understanding sediment transport processes in rivers and providing insights into riverbed dynamics and sediment budgets over time. For this study, the Telemac2D hydrodynamic model, coupled with the Gaia sediment transport module, was employed to simulate the hydrograph of the HQ50 flood event. The model accounted for complex bedload behavior, including lateral slope effects and bank failure, which are essential processes in river restoration. A stable sediment budget with inflow rates equal to outflow rates was assumed due to the uncertainty in bedload inflow rates. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using various transport equations, including Meyer-Peter & Müller, Einstein & Brown, Hunziker, and Wilcock & Crowe. To assess model performance, metrics such as mean change in elevation (MCE), root mean square error (RMSE), and a newly developed erosion and deposition pattern index (EDPI) were analyzed. All transport equations replicated the general survey patterns, with the Meyer-Peter & Müller equation achieving the lowest MCE and RMSE errors and the highest EDPI values. Despite these promising results, unrealistic behavior was observed since none of the transport models accounted for the movement of the coarsest sediment fraction, leading to bed coarsening as fine material was preferentially transported out of the model. Furthermore, the Hunziker and Wilcock & Crowe equations yielded unrealistically low transport rates, resulting in reduced erosion and deposition compared to the Meyer-Peter & Müller and Einstein & Brown equations. These limitations highlight uncertainties in shear stress calculations for alpine rivers characterized by large particle sizes. Further research is recommended to address these issues and enhance the accuracy of sediment transport modeling in similar contexts.

How to cite: Siedersleben, J., Zöschg, H., and Schletterer, M.: Analyzing morphodynamics along a river widening: Applicability of different transport equations in 2D numerical modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16570, 2025.

EGU25-16976 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Large Scale Morphological Changes Due To Flash Floods In Small Streams Under Climate Change Scenarios 

Rezar Lleshi, Massimo Guerrero, Slaven Conevski, Vittorio Di Federico, and Nils Rüther

Morphological change in rivers is a dynamic and complex phenomenon affected by several environmental conditions and hydraulic processes, which are mainly related to the composition and the susceptibility of erosion of the river channel and watershed. While erosion occurs constantly at low rates most of the time, high flow events such as flash floods can lead to a severe increase in erosion and sedimentation rates, which can have negative effects on transportation infrastructures, residential areas and even the efficiency of hydropower projects. With the future projections of climate change showing an increase in the frequency of such events, a good understanding is important in assessing the impact they will have in already existing and planned riverside uses.

However, investigating sediment rates is a difficult task both in the field and through numerical modelling. Especially in small streams, quick events characterized by extreme flow, can produce a significant portion of the annual sediment load in the matter of a few days or hours. Satellite and drone data or acoustic/optical devices provide scarce observations and pointwise measurements respectively, thus lacking the time and spatial resolution necessary to capture the overall dynamics of the river. The development of 2D and 3D numerical models would also prove as a computationally demanding task when applied to larger scale areas such as a river reach and long simulation periods (i.e., tens of kilometers and decades). Utilizing a well-documented 1D model is a viable option due to the accessibility and low computational demands.

For these reasons, the objective of this study will be establishing a 1D sediment transport model through HEC-RAS, relying on evidences from case studies prone to hydrological quick events. The calibration procedure is deterministic parameter testing, such as sediment transport functions and cohesive factors, with the aim of reconstructing the sediment input and deposition based on the existing bathymetries and measured suspended sediment concentrations during floods.

The expected results would be assessing the sediment quantities during flood events, and the impact on the river morphology in the long term. Running various climate change scenarios, such as SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) will provide the uncertainties of river morphology changes in the future, burden with increasing floods frequency,

How to cite: Lleshi, R., Guerrero, M., Conevski, S., Di Federico, V., and Rüther, N.: Large Scale Morphological Changes Due To Flash Floods In Small Streams Under Climate Change Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16976, 2025.

The diffusive wave or the zero-inertia (ZI) model for surface runoff modeling is derived by neglecting the local and convective acceleration terms from the two-dimensional (2D) depth-averaged shallow water equations (SWE). The ZI model is computationally efficient and highly accurate compared to the SW models for modeling low subcritical (Froude number < 0.5) flood propagation problems. The current study presents a Finite Volume (FV) method-based ZI flow model – zeroInertiaFlowFOAM, developed using the OpenFOAM® framework [1]. The model utilizes the implicit time discretization scheme and the Picard iteration scheme for the linearization of the non-linear momentum equation. The stabilized and adaptive time-stepping algorithm implemented in the present model adjusts the future time step size based on the convergence characteristics of the iterative scheme at the present time step, thereby enhancing the computational efficiency. The existing ZI model – surfaceFlowFOAM [2] suffered from high mass balance errors (MBE) and chequerboard oscillations while simulating flood flows due to high rainfall intensities over surfaces with steep bed-slopes. The present model is a modified version of surfaceFlowFOAM. In the present model, the velocity is calculated from the momentum equation at the element centroids of the collocated grid-system. The calculated velocity is used to solve the continuity equation, where the divergence of the flux term is discretized using the upwind scheme. This relates the gradient of the flow depth (∇h) to the values at the consecutive element centroids, thereby eliminating the possibility of chequerboard instability arising in the regions where the water-surface slope changes sharply. It significantly reduces the restrictions on mesh generation for such problems, thereby increasing the computational efficiency when compared to surfaceFlowFOAM. Moreover, the modified discretization technique adopted in zeroInertiaFlowFOAM has helped in achieving high mass balance accuracy which was another significant limitation in surfaceFlowFOAM. The applicability of zeroInertiaFlowFOAM has also been verified and validated against the standard benchmark problems from the literature.

References

[1] Jasak, H., A. Jemcov, Z. Tukovic. (2007). OpenFOAM: A C++ library for complex physics simulations. In Vol. 1000 of Proc., Int. Workshop on Coupled Methods in Numerical Dynamics,1–20. Dubrovnik, Croatia: Inter-University Center

[2] Dey, S., Dhar, A. (2024). Applicability of Zero-Inertia Approximation for Overland Flow Using a Generalized Mass-Conservative Implicit Finite Volume Framework. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 29(1), 04023042.

How to cite: Dey, S.: zeroInertiaFlowFOAM – a OpenFOAM®-based computationally efficient, mass-conservative, implicit zero-inertia flow model for flood inundation problems on collocated grid-systems. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17402, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17402, 2025.

EGU25-18955 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Measuring seasonal bedload transport rates in a sub-arctic river using image processing techniques 

Juha-Matti Välimäki, Eliisa Lotsari, Anette Eltner, and Tuure Takala

Accurately predicting, modelling and measuring bedload transport rate remains a challenge even after a century of research and various approaches. Traditionally measurements of bedload transport rate in field setting have been done with labor-intensive and difficult to use mechanical equipment such as bedload samplers or traps. Mechanical devices are often intrusive, meaning that the devices’ presence can influence the shape of riverbed and the measured bedload transport rate during the measurement. These devices are also limited in their capability to capture the spatial and temporal fluctuations of bedload transport and only describe dimensionless mean transport rate from a point or a section. Image processing techniques such as particle image velocimetry and optical flow combined with background subtraction and image labeling methods enable continuous, non-intrusive two-dimensional bedload velocity and bedload transport rate measurements over large areas. These image processing techniques have been previously successfully applied in lab conditions to measure bedload transport rates from video data sets but not in field conditions.

The focus of this study is 1) to apply image processing techniques to underwater video data sets to measure seasonal bedload transport rates in various sediment transport conditions and 2) to understand and compare the seasonal variation in bedload transport measured with image processing techniques and traditional mechanical measurements.

To cover various sediment transport conditions, the study is based on field data collected over various years (2021-2024), seasons (winter, spring, autumn), and flow conditions (open channel and ice-covered) at sub-arctic Pulmanki river, which is in northern Finland (~70°N latitude) and drains to the Arctic Sea. The novel results are presented and show that the method is promising in enhancing the understanding of sediment transport processes and the seasonal transported amounts in sub-arctic river conditions.

How to cite: Välimäki, J.-M., Lotsari, E., Eltner, A., and Takala, T.: Measuring seasonal bedload transport rates in a sub-arctic river using image processing techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18955, 2025.

EGU25-19336 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.2

Sediment Dynamics in Proglacial Zones: Insights from Grain Size Distribution Mapping and Hydrodynamic Modeling 

Sebastian Leistner, Clemens Hiller, Frederik Schulte, Lukas Winiwarter, Silvia Glas, Kay Helfricht, and Stefan Achleitner

The retreat of alpine glaciers impacts and intensifies geomorphological processes in proglacial zones, driven by increased sediment availability and altered hydrological regimes. These dynamic systems transfer sediment from glacial sources to downstream fluvial networks, profoundly influencing sediment flux and fluvial morphology. This study investigates sediment dynamics within proglacial gravel plains of the Jamtal Valley (Tyrol, Austria), focusing on DEM of difference (DoD) analysis combined with grain size distribution (GSD) mapping as key tools for understanding sediment redistribution. Both are used as input to calibrate hydromorphological models. A multi-method approach was employed, integrating UAV-based photogrammetry, LiDAR surveys and manual ground-truth sampling. High-resolution local ground truth data were upscaled to large areas by applying a Random Forest Regressor, expanding spatial coverage and reducing dependence on labor-intensive field methods. This approach enables efficient and frequent monitoring even in alpine terrain that is difficult to access. Initial results demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating photogrammetry with semi-automated grain size detection algorithms to capture spatiotemporal variations in sediment properties. The temporal changes in elevation and GSD mapped since 2021 offer insights into sediment redistribution mechanisms. Glacial runoff and associated introduction of bed load trigger the transport and redistribution mechanisms in the glacier forefield. Whereas aggradation and surficial coarsening is assumed to occur under sediment supply-dominated conditions, contrasting to periods leading to a net erosion in the forefield. These dynamics underline the role of proglacial zones in buffering and modulating sediment fluxes connecting downstream river reaches. The hydraulic implications of GSD variability were analyzed using multiple roughness models within a 2D hydrodynamic framework, including Manning’s, Nikuradse’s and Ferguson’s roughness model. Applying the approach by Ferguson (2007) accounts for macro-roughness and variable submergence and revealed significant velocity variations and minor changes in flood extents. However, spatially differentiated roughness exhibited limited impact on water levels under varying discharge conditions, highlighting the nuanced influence of surficial sediment distribution on hydrodynamic behavior. To assess the morphodynamic behavior,  the associated 2D sediment transport model is being used to evaluate the use of GSD maps in advancing our understanding of sediment dynamics and hydromorphological feedback in proglacial environments. This work in progress focuses on impacts of various inflow conditions and model setups on shifts in sediment transport and spatial redistribution patterns.

How to cite: Leistner, S., Hiller, C., Schulte, F., Winiwarter, L., Glas, S., Helfricht, K., and Achleitner, S.: Sediment Dynamics in Proglacial Zones: Insights from Grain Size Distribution Mapping and Hydrodynamic Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19336, 2025.

EGU25-19543 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Investigating Suspended Sediment And Large Wood Dynamics in a Mountain Forested Catchment 

Diletta Chirici, Ilenia Murgia, Matteo Verdone, Lorenzo Innocenti, Matteo Nigro, Francesca Manca, Andrea Dani, Federico Preti, Giacomo Belli, Duccio Gheri, Luca Mao, Emanuele Marchetti, Luca Solari, and Daniele Penna

Suspended sediment plays a crucial role in shaping stream morphology and maintaining ecological balance, yet the main controls on its sources and dynamics in forested mountain catchments are still poorly documented. In this study we aimed at assessing suspended sediment spatio-temporal sources and transport dynamics in a Mediterranean mountain catchment. A relevant role might be played by large wood debris in suspended sediment retention and release: large wood structures can significantly influence sediment dynamics by trapping sediments and creating stable habitats for aquatic organisms. This aspect is particularly relevant in forested mountain streams where wood accumulation can alter flow patterns and sediment transport mechanisms.

The experimental activities were carried out in the densely forested Re della Pietra catchment located in Tuscany, Central Italy.

To assess suspended sediment spatio-temporal dynamics, field measurements were conducted since December 2024, including monitoring of turbidity at the catchment outlet using a high-definition turbidimeter, stream stage measurements, soil moisture measurements at two depths, and the main meteorological variables.

Preliminary results show a significant correlation between turbidity, rainfall intensity and stage variation, suggesting that rainfall intensity is crucial in suspended sediment release and transport patterns. Notably, pronounced turbidity peaks were observed during moderate to intense storm events occurred during the wet season but did not correlated to meteorological variables. The analysis of the hysteresis loops between turbidity and stream stage (as a proxy of discharge) reported that the 15% of the loops were clockwise, suggesting that suspended sediment primarily originates from local sources, mostly during the wet season.

The study highlights the relationships between suspended sediment transport, large wood debris, and hydrological variables, emphasizing the need for further investigation of the factors affecting suspended sediment transport in forested mountain environments. The determination of flow rating curve is in progress, and future analysis will consider suspended sediment concentration and discharge data. The large wood impact will be studied through the visual analysis of the photographic documentation produced by cameras located at the catchment outlet.

How to cite: Chirici, D., Murgia, I., Verdone, M., Innocenti, L., Nigro, M., Manca, F., Dani, A., Preti, F., Belli, G., Gheri, D., Mao, L., Marchetti, E., Solari, L., and Penna, D.: Investigating Suspended Sediment And Large Wood Dynamics in a Mountain Forested Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19543, 2025.

EGU25-20149 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Super-Resolution for Enhanced Fluvial Sediment Measurement in UAV Images  

Xingyu Chen, Yucheng Liu, Jiamei Wang, Hongbo Ma, Marwan A. Hassan, and Xudong Fu

Drone imagery can efficiently perform large-scale riverbed grain size measurements. However, its applicability is significantly constrained by image resolution limitations. This issue is especially critical in mountainous areas, where sediments exhibit a wide range of grain sizes and spatial heterogeneity. To address this issue, this paper develops a new fluvial sediment measurement technique for UAV images using a deep learning technique super-resolution (SR). We first used RTK-based UAV technology to collect high-resolution riverbed grain orthophotos of different types of mountain rivers, with the collected UAV images having a resolution between 3~5 mm/pixel. Four types of super-resolution models Nearest Neighbor, Lanczos filter, SRCNN and SRGAN were trained to restore the high-resolution images from low-resolution riverbed images. Three automated grain sizing methods BASEGRAIN, GrainID and ImageGrains were applied to the images restored by SR models, and 113,456 manual grain labels are created as grain size baseline for model evaluation. The efficacy of all three models diminishes with decreasing resolution, with BASEGRAIN being the most robust and GrainID the most sensitive. Application of all four SR models model significantly increase the efficacy of grain size measurement, and SRGAN models with upscaling factor of 4 (SRGAN×4) outperform other models. Further analysis shows the minimum detectable sediment particle size of SRGAN×4 is 1 pixel, which exceed the minimal human vision limitation for detecting grain size. The SR technology proposed in this paper makes it more feasible to rapidly obtain the riverbed grain size over a wide range in mountainous rivers.

How to cite: Chen, X., Liu, Y., Wang, J., Ma, H., Hassan, M. A., and Fu, X.: Super-Resolution for Enhanced Fluvial Sediment Measurement in UAV Images , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20149, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20149, 2025.

Sediment transport problems in rivers often arise under conditions involving a dynamic and complex free surface. Local scour around hydraulic structures can pose significant threats to the stability and safety of riverine infrastructure during extreme discharge events. To date, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software using the two-phase approach are used for such scenarios, which comes at the cost of significant computational resources. This contribution presents a non-hydrostatic Navier-Stokes equations solver on a σ-coordinate grid that allows the grid to follow the variations of the free surface as well as the bottom. The approach is significantly more efficient then said CFD models. The model is developed within the open-source hydrodynamics framework REEF3D, which allows for use of the parallelization and high-order finite difference frameworks. For discretization, it uses a Godunov-type scheme for shock-capturing properties, allowing for stable and accurate representation of complex free surface conditions, such as hydraulic jumps. Bed load and suspended load transport formulations are implemented based on standard formulations. The possible sediment transport and scouring effects around the large bridge piers of a relatively old bridge over the river Nidelva in Trondheim, Norway are investigated. Due to the contraction effects of the piers, subcritical flow is forced for certain conditions. The numerical model captures the hydrodynamics and the free surface realistically, showing the possibility for a more efficient alternative to two-phase flow CFD simulations in such scenarios.

How to cite: Bihs, H. and Wang, W. W.: Non-Hydrostatic and Shock-Capturing Modeling of Free Surface Flow Driven Sediment Transport around Bridge Foundations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20462, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20462, 2025.

EGU25-20662 | Orals | HS9.2

ADCP measurements of bedload due to hydropeaking versus natural floods 

Colin. D. Rennie, Fanny Ville, Damia Vericat, and Ramon J. Batalla

A hydropeak is a rapid increase in river discharge induced by a hydroelectric dam when optimizing energy production.  These flow fluctuations occur in many regulated rivers and can influence sediment transport and fluvial habitat. The present study investigates the relative importance of hydropeaks versus natural floods for bedload sediment transport in the Ésera River, Central Pyrenees, Spain. An acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used to measure both stationary time series and spatial distributions of apparent bedload velocity, which is the bias induced in ADCP bottom track velocity (Doppler sonar) due to bedload transport. A Sontek RiverSurveyor M9® ADCP, coupled with a Leica GS15® Real-Time Global Navigation Satellite System (RTK-GNNS), was deployed on a tethered floating survey platform from the road bridge at the Santaliestra monitoring section, which is approximately 13 km downstream from the hydropower plant.

During two measurement campaigns in 2019 and 2020, a total of 29 of the stationary ADCP apparent bedload velocity measurements distributed across the channel section were coupled with synchronous adjacent physical bedload samples collected with a Helley-Smith sampler.  Correlation of such paired samples can be used to develop a calibration relation between observed ADCP apparent bedload velocity (m/s) and bedload sediment transport rate (kg/m/s). The physical bedload samples were processed in the laboratory to obtain fractional bedload transport rates. The paired data set was insufficient to develop a strong overall calibration relation, but fractional results aligned with calibration relations developed in other rivers with similar mixed sand/gravel bed materials.

A total of 13 spatial surveys of apparent bedload velocity were obtained for different flow rates, during both hydropeaking events and natural floods. Initial observations suggest natural floods result in greater sediment transport in the Santaliestra section due to the input of sediment from tributaries. Nonethless, hydropeaks were observed to partially destabilize/mobilize the bed, and thus contribute to sediment transport and morphodynamic processes.

How to cite: Rennie, C. D., Ville, F., Vericat, D., and Batalla, R. J.: ADCP measurements of bedload due to hydropeaking versus natural floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20662, 2025.

EGU25-20898 | ECS | Orals | HS9.2

Evaluating drone-based photogrammetry for morphologic mapping of a hydraulic model with a mobile bed 

Manuel Pirker, Stefan Haun, and Josef Schneider

Physical models are valuable tools for investigating changes in river morphology while also allowing the analysis of three-dimensional processes such as scour in bends or the vicinity of hydraulic structures. An important aspect is an accurate assessment of the river bed and morphological structures that occur, which today is often based on optical measurement systems, such as LiDAR, or photogrammetric techniques like Structure for Motion (SfM). These sensors are usually mounted on tripods, requiring multiple look angles to cover the whole model, and therefore need to be manually repositioned several times. Alternatively, they can be mounted on overhead tracks, limiting the possible look angles and requiring expansive installation.

To overcome these limitations, this study utilized a drone equipped with a high-resolution camera to survey morphological bed changes of a 70 m long and up to 6 m wide physical model with a movable bed and fixed rip-rap embankments. The bed material consisted of coarse sand and fine gravel with a mean diameter of 2.1 mm. Several surveys covering a total area of 180 m² were carried out and drone-based SfM results were compared with data obtained using a terrestrial laser scanner (Leica RTC360). The DJI Mavic Mini 3 Pro drone was equipped with a 48 MP camera, featuring a 1/1.3'' CMOS sensor which captured up to 240 camera positions from three vertical angles within 30 minutes. This was a similar acquisition time required by the tripod-mounted laser scanner to cover the whole model with six setups. Post-processing, from ground control point detection and tie point matching to cloud construction and digital elevation model (DEM) generation, was automated in this study to reduce processing time.

By comparing the DEMs produced by SfM and the RTC360, it became obvious that SfM cannot only map morphological structures but also produces denser point clouds, with a mean surface point density of 127 pts/cm² compared to 75 pts/cm² by the laser scan. The mean absolute cloud-to-cloud distance for the model bed is 1.8 mm, with a standard deviation of 1.5 mm. This compares favorably to the accuracy of the RTC360 of 1.9 mm at a distance of 10 meters.

Notably, there are disagreements between the SfM model and the laser scan, especially in areas with coarser materials, e.g. rip-rap at the embankments, or areas with low-feature texture, e.g. plastic structures or smooth concrete faces. The final calculated volume differences from the resulting DEMs before and after an experimental trial also show good agreement, with a 3 % discrepancy in the volume difference.

The results of this study showed that the accuracy of drone-based SfM-generated DEMs is similar to that of an RTC360 with much lower equipment costs. Furthermore, the mobility of drones offers the advantage of achieving a wider range of look angles, which improves the quality of the resulting SfM model. Hence, the application of drone-based SfM for morphological measurements in laboratory experiments is a promising technique for a wide range of measurements of morphological processes.

How to cite: Pirker, M., Haun, S., and Schneider, J.: Evaluating drone-based photogrammetry for morphologic mapping of a hydraulic model with a mobile bed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20898, 2025.

The Yellow River used to be known as the most sediment-laden river in the world, but its sediment load has decreased dramatically in recent decades largely due to anthropogenic changes in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Despite the observed trends, the spatiotemporal changes in hillslope erosion and river sediment and their response to soil-water conservation (SWC) measures remain unclear. To address the knowledge gap, this study conducted a basin-wide simulation of sediment processes in the YRB for the first time using the Geomorphology-Based Ecohydrological Model and analyzed the impacts of various SWC measures on hillslope erosion and river sediment transport. Our results showed a 72.8% decrease in area-averaged erosion modulus and a 90.6% decline in sediment load at Huayuankou station during 2000-2019 compared with that of 1960-1979. An exponential decay relationship was found between hillslope SWC coverage ratio and soil erosion modulus, indicating diminishing marginal effectiveness of further interventions. The relative decrease in soil erosion modulus was the highest in the Wei River and lowest in the Toudaoguai-Longmen (TDG-LM) section for the same increase in hillslope SWC coverage ratio. Annual sediment amount trapped by check dams relative to hillslope erosion increased from 5.9% in 1960-1979 to 29.7% in 2000-2019. By 2019, the cumulative deposited storage of check dams reached 4.74 billion m³, accounting for 54.3% of the total storage capacity. Compared with other tributaries, the sediment deposition proportions in check dams were relatively lower in Wei River. This research offers a reliable tool for understanding the sediment regime change under intensive conservation measures, and provides important insights for sustainable management in the region.

How to cite: Yang, H., Wang, T., and Yang, D.: Spatiotemporal changes in hillslope erosion and river sediment caused by extensive soil-water conservation in the Yellow River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2039, 2025.

EGU25-2774 | Orals | HS9.4

Tracing the Impacts of Land-Use Change on Reservoir Sedimentation: Insights from the Ruiru Basin, Kenya 

Esther Githumbi, Ann Kamamia, Lucas Kämpf, Hosea Mwangi, Joseph Sang, Joseph Karanja, Michael Zech, Stefan Julich, and Karl-Heinz Feger

Human activities have profoundly influenced sediment dynamics in tropical regions, altering the functionality of critical water infrastructure. This study focuses on the Ruiru Reservoir, a key water supply source for Nairobi, Kenya, constructed in 1949. Using a novel "source-to-sink" approach, we begin by integrating sediment core analysis, geochemical and stratigraphic profiling, and historical land-use reconstructions to examine sedimentation dynamics over the past seven decades (1949 - 2017).

The findings highlight six major sedimentation periods corresponding to heavy rainfall events and extensive land-use changes. Peaks in sediment accumulation align with transitions from forested landscapes to agriculture and urbanization, coupled with episodic climatic events. Advanced geochemical fingerprinting methods would enable the identification of sediment source areas, linking elevated sediment loads to hotspots of erosion caused by deforestation, agricultural expansion, and infrastructural development.

This multi-proxy analysis underscores the reservoir’s role as an environmental archive, documenting the Anthropocene’s imprint on hydro systems. It provides actionable insights into managing erosion and sedimentation under intensifying anthropogenic and climatic pressures. The research emphasizes the importance of sustainable catchment management and highlights how retrospective sediment analyses can inform future policies to enhance the resilience of tropical water reservoirs.

How to cite: Githumbi, E., Kamamia, A., Kämpf, L., Mwangi, H., Sang, J., Karanja, J., Zech, M., Julich, S., and Feger, K.-H.: Tracing the Impacts of Land-Use Change on Reservoir Sedimentation: Insights from the Ruiru Basin, Kenya, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2774, 2025.

EGU25-3910 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Early-stage urbanization drives critical sediment production 

Paulo Vitor R. M. da Silva, Kathryn L. Russell, Tim D. Fletcher, Frederic Cherqui, Oldrich Navratil, and Etienne Cossart

Sediment production is often intensified in peri-urban areas as landscapes transition from predominantly rural to urbanized conditions. This transformation alters hydrological and sediment dynamics, which are complex and remain poorly understood, particularly during the process of urbanization. There is a need to begin systematically monitoring the impacts of urbanization on sediment production and transport. This study focused on monitoring suspended solids concentrations and loads in stormwater drainage systems over six months in Officer, Melbourne – a peri-urban area experiencing rapid urban development. Using low-cost automatic monitoring stations developed by our research team, we collected data across sites with different stages of urbanization, ranging from early construction to fully developed areas.

We found that during storm events, mean concentrations of suspended sediments in early urbanization stages can reach up to 100 times those observed in mature urbanized areas. Most importantly, suspended sediment yields in early-stage urbanization areas were up to 10 times higher than in fully developed areas, despite lower runoff volumes. Sediments from early stages of development were also finer than sediments from later stages. These high loads of fine sediments present increased risks to receiving water bodies, such as streams, bays, and wetlands, due to their ability to transport pollutants over long distances and contribute to environmental degradation.

The findings highlight the value of combining innovative monitoring technologies with geospatial and time series analysis to better understand sediment dynamics in a complex and rapidly urbanizing landscape. Additionally, the findings underscore that erosion and sediment control measures are vital, particularly during the early stages of urbanization, requiring proactive management throughout this process to mitigate fine sediment impacts and protect downstream waterbodies, ensuring sustainable growth in peri-urban areas.

How to cite: R. M. da Silva, P. V., L. Russell, K., D. Fletcher, T., Cherqui, F., Navratil, O., and Cossart, E.: Early-stage urbanization drives critical sediment production, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3910, 2025.

EGU25-4118 | Posters on site | HS9.4

Field Experiment and Numerical Simulation Study on the Erosion Resistance Performance of Spur Dikes with Soil-Cement Protection 

Zheng-yi Feng, Ching-mao Huang, Kuan-yi Hsu, and Su-chin Chen

On April 23, 2024, this study conducted an experiment on the impact of dam-breach flood on spur dikes to explore the anti-erosion effect of soil-cement surface protection on spur dikes. The test site was located downstream of Landao creek in Huisun Forest in Nantou County, Taiwan where three spur dikes were constructed using soil from the riverbed. Soil-cement was applied to the upstream slope faces of the spur dikes to enhance their erosion resistance. This study monitored seismic and acoustic signals during the erosion process then used Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) for time-frequency analysis to investigate the signal characteristics of spur dikes under erosion. We used the iRIC Nays2DH program to simulate the erosion of spur dikes, inputting the digital elevation model (DEM) before the experiment for calculations. The simulation results were compared with the DEM after the experiment. We also conducted several scenario numerical simulations to explore the anti-erosion benefits of spur dikes with different angles and lengths.

How to cite: Feng, Z., Huang, C., Hsu, K., and Chen, S.: Field Experiment and Numerical Simulation Study on the Erosion Resistance Performance of Spur Dikes with Soil-Cement Protection, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4118, 2025.

EGU25-4443 | Orals | HS9.4

Combining field and aerial imagery monitoring for planning maintenance operations and strategies in an ungauged mountain catchment 

Alessio Cislaghi, Emanuele Morlotti, and Gian Battista Bischetti

Mountain catchments are highly sensitive to the impacts of global warming, which affects seasonal weather patterns, glacier retreat, permafrost thawing, and snow cover duration. These changes drive rapid transformations in their ecosystems and alter their hydrological and sedimentological regime, exacerbating their susceptibility to various hazards, including floods, shallow landslides, and debris flows, all closely tied to sediment dynamics. Consequently, sediment management plays a key role in developing watershed management strategies that lead to programme interventions for mitigating potential losses for the mountain communities.

In this context, an integrated approach combining field surveys and aerial imagery analysis is essential for evaluating the effectiveness of existing countermeasures (mainly torrent control structures) and for finding innovative solutions, especially in absence of sediment transport monitoring systems. This approach enables the collection of observations on lithology, geology, channel cross-section shape, longitudinal profiles, land use, active soil movements, and grain size distribution within sediment source areas and along the channel network. The field inspections of torrent control structures further provide a detailed assessment of their condition and functionality.

All these observations are essential for geomorphological approaches, statistical formulae, and hybrid methods to estimate potential debris flow volumes at both reach and catchment scales. Additionally, simplified rainfall-runoff modelling, such as the SCS-CN method, is employed to assess critical runoff thresholds that could trigger water-sediment flows. The outputs include the spatially distributed assessments of in-channel and hillslope sediment storage volumes, and the delineation of sediment source areas. Aerial imagery complements this process by verifying the spatial distribution and extent of sediment source areas and tracking land cover changes over time.

The proposed methodology was developed and applied to the Rovina Torrent basin, located in the Central Alps (Lombardy, North Italy). The basin is characterized by coniferous forest cover (37.2%) and extensive debris accumulations and lithoid outcrops (36.7%). In the study case, the results provide the typologies in terms of driving the triggering event mode within the catchment, the minimum critical rainfall for designing an early warning system, and the potential debris flow volume for adjusting the sediment trapping basin.

The outcome significantly enhances the accuracy of hazard mitigation strategies and supports the adaptation or redesign of the torrent control structures to better address evolving sediment dynamics. The combination of the scientific experience in similar mountain context and the additional field observations can quantitatively provide a robust diagnosis of the current scenario for planning maintenance operations, for proposing and designing alternative solutions to reduce the natural hazard and for effectively supporting the decision-making process including the strategic allocation of human and financial resources.

How to cite: Cislaghi, A., Morlotti, E., and Bischetti, G. B.: Combining field and aerial imagery monitoring for planning maintenance operations and strategies in an ungauged mountain catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4443, 2025.

EGU25-5010 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Historical soil erosion events in border polje revealed by geochemical fingerprint analysis of soil profiles 

Chunlai Zhang, Zhongcheng Jiang, Chaosheng Zhang, Zhihua Chen, Ping'an Sun, and Tongbin Zhu

Understanding soil erosion history in ecologically fragile karst regions is essential for sustainable land management. The potential use of border polje (BP) soil profiles as reliable records of erosion deposition remains uncertain. This study investigated the geochemical characteristics of limestone and siltstone weathering profiles on both sides of the BP, using geochemical fingerprints to quantify BP soil source proportions and erosion changes. Key findings include (1) The karst and non-karst soil profiles on the slopes on each side of BP exhibit distinct geochemical signatures, with weathering indices indicating chemical weathering processes originating from limestone and siltstone, respectively. (2) Discriminant analysis and conservative element testing achieved accurate differentiation between the limestone and siltstone weathered soil sources, with a model goodness-of-fit above 80%, confirming the effectiveness of geochemical fingerprinting for determining soil provenance. (3) Siltstone-weathered soils dominate the bulk of BP soils, with small amounts of weathering products from limestone near the karst hills. (4) A marked increase in weathered material from both karst and non-karst sources at depths of 1.2–1.4 m, along with charcoal presence, suggests intensified erosion following historical fire events in the area. These results affirm the feasibility of the use of BP soil profiles as records of historical erosion, with geochemical fingerprints capturing shifts between karst and non-karst hill contributions. This study highlights the potential of BP soil profiles as archives of environmental changes, providing a framework for reconstructing historical landscape dynamics in complex terrains.

How to cite: Zhang, C., Jiang, Z., Zhang, C., Chen, Z., Sun, P., and Zhu, T.: Historical soil erosion events in border polje revealed by geochemical fingerprint analysis of soil profiles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5010, 2025.

EGU25-5465 | Posters on site | HS9.4

Contribution of extreme rainfall-induced hyper-concentrated flows to downstream channel siltation in the Yellow River 

xiaopei zhang, Wanquan Ta, Xiaohua zhang, and Xiaodong Liu

It is well known that hyper-concentrated flows (HCF) in the middle reach of the Yellow River can cause a severe channel siltation in the Lower Yellow River to develop a world-famous “Aboveground River”. However, there has long been debate about the relative importance of HCFs from the Loess regions versus from the desert regions in the middle basin in causing such a severe channel siltation. In this study, we used 188 HCFs’ events in the lower reach in response to extreme rainfall events (daily precipitation records in 107 stations) in the middle basin from 1965 to 1985, and showed that HCFs from the desert regions (Type-N) contributed to about 3.1×109 t of sediment deposition in the lower river channel, or about 58.1% of the total sediment deposition, and that only about 16.8% from HCFs from the Loess regions (Type-S). Our results also indicated that the HCF with the SSC value more than 92 kg/m3 furnished about 83% of the total sediment deposition in the lower reach of the Yellow River, which primarily originated from the desert regions, rather than the loess areas, as has been traditionally anticipated before. Because the desert region can be a major source of coarse sediment contributor to the channel siltation of the lower Yellow River, its control should be a priority in protecting the Yellow River and ensuring its stability.

How to cite: zhang, X., Ta, W., zhang, X., and Liu, X.: Contribution of extreme rainfall-induced hyper-concentrated flows to downstream channel siltation in the Yellow River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5465, 2025.

EGU25-5607 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Alluvial surface sediments as a tool for Heavy Metal Pollutants determination of areas with strong industrial heritage  

Rachel Seillier, Jérémie Riquier, Frédéric Paran, Steve Peuble, Olivier Faure, and Baptiste Bouillot

The growth of a territory is usually linked to the increase of contamination with Potentially Toxic Elements (PTE), which show stable, persistent, and non-biodegradable characteristics. PTEs became of great interest because they threaten humans and ecosystems through their bioaccumulation capacity and mobility in water systems. The main source of high levels of PTE is human activities such as mining, industries, and factory emissions. The erosion of soils contaminated by emissions and deposits of these activities can lead to great contamination levels in sediments, which greatly concerns environmental quality.

This study aims to identify the impact of intensive past mining and smelting industries on the metal and metalloid contents in actual alluvial surface sediments. To assess the associated environmental risks, index calculations, and statistical treatments have been carried out on 78 sediment samples in both natural and urban streams. The two main studied areas are the Furan River watershed and the Ondaine River watershed (close to the city of Saint-Etienne, France), with about 10 samples on each river in addition to the tributaries samples (around 20 by river).

The study outcomes mainly show values above TEC values for As, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn, indicating that the contamination poses a potential threat to natural ecosystems. Moreover, the enrichment factor of PTEs, calculated along the length of rivers, indicates moderate pollution (> 2), after the biggest cities, which decreases with the distance downstream for Cr, Ni, Pb, and Cu for both rivers. The Furan River has even higher enrichment for Cu and Mo, as significant pollution (> 5) can be observed before decreasing to no pollution levels. On the other hand, Zn values stay at a limited pollution level over the entire rivers length. The overall moderate contamination of PTEs shown by the enrichment factor indicates high risks for the environment linked to human activities. To quantify the danger, a hazard index was determined, for all the PTEs of interest, on each sample. The results show that the PTEs levels are not of any harm for the environment, except for four samples that indicate high risks compared to the local geochemical background (SIGMINES database). This index puts the real risk for the environment into perspective since only 4 samples out of 48 show actual hazards.

In light of these observations, statistics (Principal Component Analysis and Correlation Matrix), and previous studies on similar areas, some links could be built with metalworking (Furan River) and dyes and paints industries (Ondaine River). However, in the absence of further evidence, it is not certain how this conclusion can be associated with past activities.

How to cite: Seillier, R., Riquier, J., Paran, F., Peuble, S., Faure, O., and Bouillot, B.: Alluvial surface sediments as a tool for Heavy Metal Pollutants determination of areas with strong industrial heritage , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5607, 2025.

Current health status of check dams and their flood control capacity amid frequent heavy rainfall remain unclear, partially due to lack of a comprehensive and efficient method for health assessment targeting potential heavy rainfall pressures. Thus, this study developed a health assessment framework for check dams under heavy rainfall scenarios, focusing on structural composition and integrity, siltation capacity, and flood control pressure. Indicators for these three aspects were calculated based on a real-scene 3D model and a high-precision DEM generated by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) tilt photography for a typical watershed on the Loess Plateau. Comprehensive health assessment of 138 check dams revealed that 14% were in excellent health, 16% in good health, 26% in fair health, and 44% in poor health. For those 44% check dams (61 in numbers) in poor health, corresponding actions were recommended based on the assessment results to reduce pressure from flooding, with 15 demanding prompt repairs, 12 requiring increased dam height, 16 needing spillway expansions, and the remaining 18 requiring multifaceted measures or the construction of new dams. At the sub-watersheds scale, more than 70% of the check dams in the Majiagou and Tianjiagou were destroyed or in poor health, which require special attention during flood seasons. In the framework developed in this study, indicators were easily accessible and highly accurate, making it suitable for practical application. This study provided a scientific basis and methodological support for decision-making regarding the reinforcement of existing and future planning of check dams in the Loess Plateau region.

How to cite: Li, B.: Health assessment of check dams in China's Loess Plateau at the watershed scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5679, 2025.

EGU25-6376 | Orals | HS9.4

Torrent Control Structures Monitoring: a Regional Scale Index based on Inventory Analysis and Remote Sensing 

Giorgia Chiarel, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Federico Cazorzi

Monitoring and maintenance are crucial for effective mountain catchments management, particularly in mitigating geo-hydrological risks. Torrent control structures, such as check dams and bed sills, play an important role in stabilising streambeds and reducing the impact of hydrological events such as floods and debris flows. However, their effectiveness depends on proper watershed management supported by systematic monitoring, which must consider sediment dynamic characterizing the catchment.

Nowadays, the use of High-Resolution Topography (HRT) data could support torrent control structures monitoring. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology has become a standard approach for generating reliable Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and conducting multi-temporal analyses. When morphometric data derived from DTM are combined with up-to-date inventories of torrent control structures, they offer valuable insights into the condition and functionality of these structures.

This study aims to develop and implement an index to identify torrent control structures in the most critical condition at a regional scale, with validation conducted at basin scale. The primary study areas are But (324 km²) and Fella (703 km²) catchments in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (Italy) on the border with Slovenia and Austria. The methodology integrates HRT-derived data with information from the regional inventory of torrent control structures. The developed index considers characteristics of the structures, such as height and year of construction, alongside site-specific factors like geology and morphometric parameters derived from DTMs. The results show how this type of analysis can prioritize maintenance interventions and enhance the management of torrent control structures.

How to cite: Chiarel, G., Cucchiaro, S., Cavalli, M., and Cazorzi, F.: Torrent Control Structures Monitoring: a Regional Scale Index based on Inventory Analysis and Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6376, 2025.

Debris-flow hydrographs can have a wide variety of shapes. They either consist of just one surge or are made up of individual debris-flow surges. For design tasks, usually only the total volume is used and the peak discharge is calculated from this based on empirical relationships. This results in the problem that in a mostly triangular hydrograph, the geometric relations of total volume, temporal variations of the discharge and peak discharge do not match.

Therefore, hydrographs of 19 debris flows recorded at the monitoring stations Gadria (South Tyrol, Italy) and Lattenbach (Tyrol, Austria) run by the Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering of BOKU University, were analyzed. As far as possible, the debris flows were divided into individual debris-flow surges and typical patterns ()were determined. From these, dimensionless hydrographs were derived in order to allow determination of the hydrograph shapes using only a few parameters, analogous to the SCS dimensionless hydrograph. A quantile analysis was used to determine the peak discharges of 132 distinct debris-flow surges. The 9th decile was defined as the decisive value for the peak discharge.

For the duration to reach the peak discharge, a correlation with the discharge, which is given by a unit volume, could be determined. With the available data, it was also possible to assign the relative frequency of the total volumes of the individual surges to different volume classes. This makes it possible to divide the total volume into individual surges of different phenotypes and total volumes. The result is a proposal for seven design hydrographs of different total loads with the corresponding peak discharge and time-to-peaks. As the temporal sequence of these debris-flow surges is not known, the planner is free to arrange these design hydrographs according to time. With this simple method, more realistic debris-flow hydrographs can be derived for a given sediment volume to be used as an input for simulations and structural design calculations.

How to cite: Huebl, J.: Simple method for developing a debris flow hydrograph composed of various debris-flow surges for design purposes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6471, 2025.

The Hindol block in Dhenkanal, Odisha, with an average annual rainfall exceeding 1200 mm, faces persistent challenges in managing runoff and sedimentation. This study evaluates the effectiveness of soil and water conservation (SWC) techniques in mitigating runoff across clusters of untreated micro-watersheds within this region.

A water balance analysis, focusing primarily on surface runoff, was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model incorporated high-resolution datasets, including digital elevation models, land use, recent Land Resource Inventory (LRI) data, and local weather records. Based on the hydrological assessment, a series of SWC interventions were designed, including contour bunding, trench cum bunds, staggered trenches, and Drainage Line Treatment (DLT) measures such as loose boulder check dams, brushwood check dams, and gabions.

These interventions were simulated in the SWAT model by adjusting critical hydrological parameters, such as Curve Number (CN2), Universal Soil Loss Equation Factor (USLE_K), Manning’s roughness coefficient (CH_N), and tributary slope (CH_S). Comparative analyses of pre and post implementation scenarios demonstrated significant reductions in runoff volumes. The extent of these reductions varied with the type and combination of conservation measures implemented.

The results underscore the potential of integrated conservation strategies to mitigate runoff and restore hydrological balance in sub-watersheds with similar agro-climatic and topographical conditions. This study provides practical insights for watershed management practitioners and policymakers, facilitating informed decisions on selecting and implementing conservation measures to address runoff and sedimentation challenges.

How to cite: Biswal, S. S., Dash, P., and Ramadas, M.: Evaluation of Conservation Treatment Measures for Runoff Reduction using A SWAT Model-Based Approach: A Case study in Hindol Sub-watershed, Dhenkanal, Odisha, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6778, 2025.

Over the last century, the anthropogenic impact on the landscape has increased significantly. In many regions, humans have become the most influential geomorphological factor. This has led to increased sediment fluxes, heavy metal contamination and plastic waste. As a result, humans are altering both the sediment budget and composition. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to further increase sediment fluxes. However, quantifying human-environment interactions remains a critical task.

To investigate such human influence on a central European landscape, reservoir sediments were analysed. The selected reservoir, built in 1905 and still in use, was completely drained in autumn 2020. This provided a rare opportunity to reconstruct the accumulated sediment volume and to analyse sediment deposition. High-resolution digital surface models were generated photogrammetrically and from historical topographic maps. In addition, 24 cores were retrieved and analysed for grain size, geochemical composition and microplastic content. Caesium-137 was used to date the sediments.

In contrast to many other regions, sediment accumulation in the reservoir has declined in recent decades. Similarly, the levels of heavy metals, particularly copper, lead and zinc, have decreased since the 1970s. These trends can be attributed to environmental legislation and the closure of a metal processing plant upstream. The Anthropocene imprint is thus highly spatially variable and influenced by effective government environmental protection.

How to cite: Stauch, G.: Human-environment interactions in the Anthropocene – a case study on reservoir sediments in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7166, 2025.

EGU25-7219 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Identifying hotspots of erosion from local knowledge and sediment fingerprinting (Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia) 

Tirusew Abere, Oliver Evrard, Thomas Chalaux-Clergue, Enyew Adgo, Hanibal Lemma, Elie Verleyen, and Amaury Frankl

To mitigate erosion, soil and water conservation measures have been widely implemented to reduce on-site erosion rates and catchment sediment yield. However, the effectiveness of these measures has often been questioned, particularly in Ethiopia, where gullying has intensified due to conservation programs that primarily target sheet and rill erosion on cropland. This study aimed to identify erosion hotspots and sediment source areas using an integrated approach. The study was conducted in the 211 km² Fota-Gumara catchment, a highly erosion-prone area in Northwest Ethiopia. First, erosion hotspot areas were identified through field observation, farmer’s interview and modelling. Then, sediment sources areas were identified using sediment fingerprinting by employing fallout radionuclide tracers (210-Pbex and 37-Cs). Local communities identified communal grazing lands and croplands as particularly vulnerable to erosion. Field observations corroborated these findings, highlighting steep slope cropland and grazing land as erosion hotspots. The Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) model indicated that 23.5% of the area experiences severe erosion, predominantly on steep slopes under cropland, shrubland, and valley bottoms where saturation excess runoff drives gullying. Sediment fingerprinting further revealed that subsoil is the dominant source of sediment. Bayesian models (MixSIAR and BMM) consistently showed that subsoil contributes approximately three-quarters of the sediment, with median contributions of 73% and 81%, respectively. We conclude that prioritizing gully rehabilitation and managing steep slope croplands should be central to land management strategies in Ethiopia.

Keywords: Sediment fingerprinting, Lake Tana Basin, Land Degradation Surveillance Framework, Analytical Hierarchical Process Model, Gully erosion

How to cite: Abere, T., Evrard, O., Chalaux-Clergue, T., Adgo, E., Lemma, H., Verleyen, E., and Frankl, A.: Identifying hotspots of erosion from local knowledge and sediment fingerprinting (Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7219, 2025.

Fine sediment transported in suspension is an important part of the total sediment yield in most rivers with erodible upland sediment sources. Fine sediment has positive effects on the stabilization of riverbanks, the accretion of floodplains, nutrient transport, and carbon sequestration. However, when fine sediment load is excessive, it can also clog the streambed, reduce invertebrate and fish habitat, prevent river-aquifer exchange and hyporheic flows, and damage hydropower infrastructure.

 To effectively design sediment management policies in rivers, it is fundamental to understand the fine sediment dynamics at the catchment scale. This study focuses on the washload, the fine sediment fraction that, once entrained, remains in suspension until its deposition.

Washload dynamics are typically quantified by concurrently measuring stage or discharge (Q) and turbidity, from which suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is derived. Q-SSC pairs often create a hysteretic relationship, allowing us to infer the distance of fine sediment sources upstream of the station.

This contribution adopts a reach-scale perspective on Q-SSC analysis, moving beyond single-station hysteresis loops and leveraging Q-SSC data from two stations, one upstream and one downstream. The core idea is that we can study washload as a passive tracer to gain further information about the hydraulic variables of roughness and water velocity, for each event separately. We can then integrate this information to further describe the fine sediment sources dynamics and the washload regime of the studied reach. Combining the subsequent reach-scale information we can completely reconstruct the washload production timing and yields across the whole catchment.

For this purpose, we developed new tools which ought to become the new standard for Q-SSC analysis. First, we identify in the discharge timeseries the flood and sediment pulse events through a new algorithm based on Empirical Mode Decomposition. Second, we study the virtual velocity of the flood and sediment signal by a new definition of cross correlation, analysing the Hilber transforms of the signal. Third, we study the presence and the nature (e.g. intensity and seasonality) of suspended sediment sources and tributaries through a time dependant boundary condition analytical solution of the advection-diffusion equation, both for discharge and washload concentration.

 The development of these three new tools and their application to the Arc-Isere (France) with six stations and four reaches, allowed us to identify the fine sediment sources and sinks in the river network. We also gained insights into seasonal fine sediment yields, the deposition and re-suspension dynamics of riverbed sediment stocks, and their progressive depletion during the spring-summer season. These methods are generalizable and applicable wherever discharge (Q) or stage and SSC data are available at two or more locations.

How to cite: Agostini, L. and Molnar, P.: New methods for the identification of fine sediment sources: from the discharge-turbidity relation to a reach scale understanding, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8969, 2025.

EGU25-9055 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Reconstruction of 137Cs and 239+240Pu baseline inventories in the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial Soils 

Aydogan Avcioglu, Surya Gupta, Gerald Dicen, Rosalie Vandromme, Christine Alewell, Olivier Cerdan, Olivier Evrard, Romane Bernard--Coquard, Hélène Angot, Pierre Sabatier, and Katrin Meusburger

Artificial fallout radionuclides (FRNs), such as 137Cs and 239+240Pu, released during nuclear weapon testing from the 1950s to 1980, have been widely used over the past three decades to quantify land degradation processes. The spatial distribution of global fallout generally aligns with latitudinal bands in areas with similar precipitation regimes. Despite nearly 80 years since these tests, no comprehensive reference map exists for FRN inventories across the Southern Hemisphere.

Therefore, this study aims to create the first complete reference maps for 137Cs and 239+240Pu along with their spatial uncertainties over the entire Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial band. To accomplish this objective, we employ the random forest algorithm to predict the concentrations of FRNs in soils of this part of the world. This is achieved by utilizing a compiled data set of soil 137Cs (n=429) and 239+240Pu (n=102) inventories (Bq/m2) (Dicen et al., 2024; under review) under the AVATAR Project (“A reVised dATing framework for quantifying geomorphological processes during the Anthropocene”). The training phase of modeling relied on environmental covariates, including monthly mean precipitation (following test months), elevation (m.), euclidean distance to test sites (km.), terrain wetness index, flow accumulation, and soil texture.

Preliminary results indicate that precipitation distribution strongly influences FRN inventories, with the highest values observed between 20°S to 30°S due to atmospheric circulation patterns driving fallout dispersion. Consistent with previous studies, southern America emerges as a major depositional region, while Australia exhibits the lowest inventories. These differences primarily reflect the proximity to nuclear test sites, such as French Polynesia, a significant source of fallout radionuclides. The euclidean distance and westerly wind patterns are key factors shaping FRN inventories.

In equatorial regions, recent land disturbances highlight the need for additional sampling, particularly for 239+240Pu, to enhance prediction accuracy and reduce spatial uncertainties. This study addresses critical gaps in the spatial distribution of FRN inventories, providing a robust foundation for geomorphological reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial regions.

How to cite: Avcioglu, A., Gupta, S., Dicen, G., Vandromme, R., Alewell, C., Cerdan, O., Evrard, O., Bernard--Coquard, R., Angot, H., Sabatier, P., and Meusburger, K.: Reconstruction of 137Cs and 239+240Pu baseline inventories in the Southern Hemisphere and Equatorial Soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9055, 2025.

EGU25-9939 | Posters on site | HS9.4

Assessment and Prioritization of Torrent Control Structures in the Osp Area: Applying the Maintenance Priority Index (MPi) for Improved Resilience 

Luka Žvokelj, Sara Cucchiaro, Federico Cazorzi, Nejc Bezak, Mojca Fabbro, and Vesna Zupanc

Abstract

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events has amplified the need for effectivness management of torrent control structures to mitigate hydro-geomorphic risks. The TORRENT Interreg project (https://www.ita-slo.eu/en/torrent), a two-year cross-border initiative, focuses on improving the planning and management of catchments in vulnerable regions, specifically Italy and Slovenia, to address hydro-geomorphic risks. The project aims to enhance river basin management by establishing common guidelines for monitoring and assessing the status and functionality of torrent control structures, prioritizing maintenance, and improving risk planning strategies.

A key aspect of the project involves field surveys to inventory and assess the state and functionality of existing torrent control structures. In the coastal region near the village of Osp, 63 torrent control structures were surveyed, with their dimensions and condition carefully documented. This information will be used to calculate the Maintenance Priority Index (MPi), which ranks torrent control structures based on their maintenance needs (Cucchiaro et al. 2024). This index serves as a user-friendly tool to effectively guide resource allocation, ensuring that maintenance interventions target the most critical areas.

By creating an up-to-date database of torrent control structures, the project supports the development of long-term strategies for disaster resilience and climate change adaptation. It contributes valuable insights into the sustainability and performance of torrent control works, aiming to reduce flood risks, improve the management torrential hazards, and enhance the overall resilience of the region to extreme weather events.

Acknowledgments

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the TORRENT project, (ITA-SI0600150), funded by the Interreg VI-A Italy-Slovenija Program 2024-2026.

References

Cucchiaro S., Martini L., Maset E., Pellegrini G., Poli M.E., Beinat A., Cazorzi F., Picco L., 2024, Multi-temporal analysis to support the management of torrent control structures, Catena, 235, 107599, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2023.107599

How to cite: Žvokelj, L., Cucchiaro, S., Cazorzi, F., Bezak, N., Fabbro, M., and Zupanc, V.: Assessment and Prioritization of Torrent Control Structures in the Osp Area: Applying the Maintenance Priority Index (MPi) for Improved Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9939, 2025.

EGU25-9960 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

An open-source QGIS plugin to support hydrological and watershed management planning in mountain basins 

Eleonora Maset, Sara Cucchiaro, Alberto De Luca, and Federico Cazorzi

In recent decades, watershed management has assumed a pivotal role in the face of the progressive anthropization of land use and the increasing frequency of extreme hydro-geomorphic events caused by climate change. Indeed, the reduction of hydro-geological risk in mountain basins is contingent on the effective and sustainable design of torrent control structures, including check dams and bed sills.

The up-to-date knowledge of basin morphology and the comprehension of the interaction between torrent control works and hydro-geomorphological phenomena represent fundamental elements for designing, managing and maintaining mountain watersheds. Nowadays, the interpretation of basin processes is significantly enhanced using accurate, high-resolution remote sensing (RS) data, in conjunction with analyses employing GIS software. However, the use of such techniques is not yet widespread and there is a need for user-friendly tools to facilitate the effective processing of RS data to support planning and management activities.

To address these demands, this work proposes the development of a QGIS plugin (i-GIS4HydroPlan) to fully support the hydrological design of torrent control structures, implementing functions such as the automatic extraction of watershed boundaries from the Digital Terrain Model (DTM), the calculation of the flow directions, upslope contributing areas, routing, and, finally, the design hydrograph. This output is estimated through the Kinematic Local Excess Model (KLEM), an event-based model applicable to small mountain basins that combines the equations of the Soil Conservation Service for the calculation of the effective rainfall, the kinematic method for the flow propagation to the outlet and a linear reservoir for the simulation of base flow. Moreover, the plugin incorporates functionalities that facilitate the management of multi-temporal DTMs, thereby enabling a comprehensive analysis of sediment dynamics within the entire basin or single torrent reaches equipped with torrent control structures. The module encompasses algorithms for the co-registration of DTMs and the error analysis that affects the DTM of Difference (DoD).

The plugin will be distributed under an open-source license with the objective of enhancing its dissemination and facilitating the standardization of workflows. This will in turn allow a more efficient design of new torrent control works and the assessment of existing structures to determine their criticality and establish maintenance priorities.

Acknowledgement: This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the consortium iNEST - Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem (PNRR, Missione 4, Componente 2, Investimento 1.5, D.D. 1058 23/06/2022, ECS00000043 – Spoke1, RT1B, CUP G23C22001130006). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.

How to cite: Maset, E., Cucchiaro, S., De Luca, A., and Cazorzi, F.: An open-source QGIS plugin to support hydrological and watershed management planning in mountain basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9960, 2025.

EGU25-10098 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.4

From Floodplains to Fallout: Anthropocene stratigraphic signals in Danube floodplain archives downstream Vienna 

Diana Hatzenbühler, Michael Weißl, Karin Hain, Christian Baumgartner, Alexander Hubmer, Andreas Lang, Ronald Pöppl, and Michael Wagreich

Human impact has become an external forcing control on Earth’s environmental and geological processes, reshaping entire landscapes and leaving traces in geological archives. Even though this anthropogenic influence can be seen on a global scale, regional studies characterizing the scope and growth of anthropogenic influence is scarce, especially for urban or peri-urban environments.

In this study, we investigate the anthropogenic impact of the metropolis Vienna on its peri-urban environment, and correlate and evaluate the main geological signals for a potential Holocene-Anthropocene transformation in the 1950s during the so-called “Great Acceleration” of Earth System Sciences by applying sedimentological and geochemical methods.  The study area is located downstream of Vienna, in the National Park Donau-Auen, where direct human intervention into the archived Danube river sediments is currently nil and floodplain archives allow to trace and quantify the human stratigraphic fingerprint and test dating techniques using (artificial) radionuclides in an alluvial setting. Sedimentological, geochronological, and chemostratigraphic markers are applied to characterize date anthropogenic strata in the proximal floodplain sediments, i.e. erosional profiles, of the Danube. The age of flood deposits was evaluated by field sedimentological method and cross-validated by the radiogenic nuclides 137Cs and 239/240Pu, which give evidence of the atmospheric ‘bomb spike’ from nuclear weapon testing. First observations indicate three periods of distinct sedimentation patterns reflecting the river system’s response to human interventions in the upstream area. The first phase marks the first extensive river channelization between 1870 and 1900 resulting in rapid erosion of mid-channel bars and aggradation of dammed backwater areas. The second phase is characterized by laterally extensive and thick flood deposits indicating the fast and undamped sediment transport through the straightened river bed during extreme events. The last phase is marked by the onset of very thick, uniform, and seemingly structureless flood deposits. These silt-sized beds are interpreted remobilized sediment that has accumulated in barrier lakes since the construction of hydro-power stations between 1956 -1998.

The archive of natural Danube deposits is analysed for artificial radiogenic isotopes, trace metals, and (micro-)plastics with the aim (i) characterise the interplay between upstream human interventions and local river dynamics, (ii) to identify and evaluate the geological signal of the Great Acceleration of Earth System Sciences since the 1950s, and (iii) to evaluate global markers for a potential Holocene-Anthropocene transformation downstream of Vienna.

How to cite: Hatzenbühler, D., Weißl, M., Hain, K., Baumgartner, C., Hubmer, A., Lang, A., Pöppl, R., and Wagreich, M.: From Floodplains to Fallout: Anthropocene stratigraphic signals in Danube floodplain archives downstream Vienna, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10098, 2025.

EGU25-10546 | Posters on site | HS9.4

New developments in Anthropocene Science in China 

Weijian Zhou, Xue Zhao, Ning Chen, Zhisheng An, Xiaolin Hou, Yongmin Han, Luyuan Zhang, Dongna Yan, Liangcheng Tan, Dewen Lei, and Yizhi Zhu

Currently, research on the Anthropocene is advancing rapidly in China. Chinese scholars have investigated various indicators of human activity, such as artificial radionuclides (239,240Pu and 129I), microplastics, δ13C, δ15N, black carbon, soot, diatoms, and DNA, as recorded in different geological and biological archives. The variations in these indicators reveal environmental changes in China since the Great Acceleration, providing evidence for global comparative studies of the Anthropocene. The sediment profile of the Sihailongwan Maar Lake, located far from urban areas and human activity, is highly sensitive to global signals, making it an ideal site for Anthropocene research. The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in collaboration with other institutions, has conducted integrated analyses of multiple indicators in sediment cores collected from Sihailongwan. The concentration of 239,240Pu increased rapidly in 1953, and systematic changes were observed in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 129I, soot 14C, carbon spherules, DNA, δ13C, heavy metals, and other indicators, all supporting the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG)’s proposal that the mid-20th century marks the onset of the Anthropocene. China has rich and diverse geological and biological records, a large population, and substantial human impact on the environment. Anthropocene research in China holds great potential, offering important insights into the effects of human activities on climate, the environment, and the Earth system. Furthermore, it provides scientific support for policymakers in formulating strategies to protect ecological environment.

How to cite: Zhou, W., Zhao, X., Chen, N., An, Z., Hou, X., Han, Y., Zhang, L., Yan, D., Tan, L., Lei, D., and Zhu, Y.: New developments in Anthropocene Science in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10546, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10546, 2025.

The Loess Plateau region faces significant soil erosion challenges exacerbated by climate change and land use transformations. Check dams are critical soil and water conservation structures that reduce sediment transport, yet their long-term effectiveness under changing environmental conditions remains uncertain. This study evaluates the sediment retention benefits of check dams in the Yanhe River Basin, a highly erodible area in the Loess Plateau, under future climate and land use scenarios. We used the CMIP6 climate projections and the PLUS land use model to simulate future climate conditions and land use changes, integrated with the WaTEM/SEDEM model to predict soil erosion and sediment yield for the next 20 years under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Results indicate that soil erosion and sediment yield will increase, particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5), where sediment yield may rise by 17.3% by 2040. However, check dams can effectively reduce sediment yield by 25.4%, mitigating the impact of future climatic and land use changes. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining and enhancing check dam networks for sustainable watershed management in erosion-prone regions. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers to implement long-term soil and water conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on sediment dynamics.

How to cite: Sun, L.: Assessment of sediment retention benefits of check dams under changing environmental conditions in the Loess Hilly and Gully Region, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11386, 2025.

EGU25-11781 | ECS | Posters on site | HS9.4

A new calibration of the continental sediment model MGB-SED AS 

Gustavo Ribeiro da Silva, Nelva Bugoni Riquetti, and Hugo de Oliveira Fagundes

Sediment modeling is an essential tool for understanding and managing sediment transport in river basins. With increasing impacts caused by changes in land use and occupation, models such as MGB-SED AS have played a crucial role in analyzing these processes, particularly in environmentally diverse regions like South America. This study aimed to enhance the performance of the MGB-SED AS model through recalibration and revalidation, improving the accuracy of suspended sediment discharge (SSD) simulations in the region's river basins. This process involved updating two fundamental parameters: the K Factor, measuring soil erodibility, and the C Factor, representing land management and cover. Both factors are critical for accurately modeling sediment dynamics and assessing the impacts of land use changes. The recalibration replaced the previous values of the K and C Factors with updated values derived from recent studies and databases reflecting South America's specific soil and land use conditions. Subsequently, the model's calibration parameters were adjusted to align simulated results with observed conditions in the river basins. Following this step, rigorous revalidation evaluated the recalibrated model's performance in terms of SSD simulations. Recalibration results revealed substantial improvements in simulation quality. Although the MGB-SED AS had already reliably simulated sediment fluxes and concentrations, updating the K and C Factors further enhanced estimate accuracy. The analyses demonstrated improved performance metrics, strengthening the model's applicability in complex and diverse scenarios. To validate the improvements, the model's performance was tested in five major South American river basins: the Amazon, Madeira, Doce, Araguaia, and São Francisco. These basins, including some of Brazil's largest rivers, were chosen for their representativeness in terms of climatic, geological, and land use diversity. Results consistently showed improved SSD simulations, demonstrating the model's capability to simulate varying sediment transport regimes and environmental conditions. This update enables more robust integration with studies on environmental impact and large-scale water sustainability. The recalibrated MGB-SED AS offers a scalable and adaptable tool, empowering researchers and managers to use it for integrated watershed management. Combining high spatial resolution and precise estimates, the enhanced model is established as a reference for studies on water planning, soil conservation, and environmental impact mitigation. Thus, the recalibration of the MGB-SED AS represents a significant advancement in sediment modeling for South America. By incorporating updated parameters and validating its performance in major river basins, the model reaffirms its role as an essential tool for managing water and sediment resources.

How to cite: Ribeiro da Silva, G., Bugoni Riquetti, N., and de Oliveira Fagundes, H.: A new calibration of the continental sediment model MGB-SED AS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11781, 2025.

EGU25-12254 | Orals | HS9.4

Carbon stocks in submerged soils of a hydro-electric reservoir after 24 years of flooding 

Susanne Claudia Möckel, Theresa Bonatotzky, Utra Mankasingh, Ivan Alvarez, Egill Erlendsson, and Guðrún Gísladóttir

Global population growth and economic growth lead to increasing energy demand. This propels the construction of river dams and artificial reservoirs to produce hydropower. Ecological effects of water impoundments, such as the fragmentation of free-flowing rivers, habitat changes, loss of habitats and biodiversity, and changes in biogeochemical cycles have been addressed by researchers for several decades. Also, the influence of flooding on the soils within reservoirs and shore erosion have been studied in a variety of environments and soil types. The development of soil carbon stocks in the submerged soils and soil carbon mineralization upon flooding are of particular interest. Some studies observe a significant decrease of carbon stocks in submerged soil, whereas others report the opposite. Here, we present a study on the influence of 24 years of water impoundment on properties of organic and mineral constituents in submerged Andosols of the Blöndulón hydro-electric reservoir in the Icelandic highlands. Drowned soils are relatively enriched in carbon content, carbon densities and carbon stocks compared to the reference soils, while they are depleted in pedogenic minerals ferrihydrite and allophane. Depth patterns of carbon are rather uniform in the drowned soils in contrast to declining trends in the reference soils. Likely, movement of organic material from upper to lower horizons, and carbon additions from decaying vegetation in the years after the reservoir impoundment explain the carbon enrichment and altered depth distribution. While the drowned soils are enriched in carbon after a comparatively short inundation time of less than three decades, the stability of the soils carbon is uncertain. The apparent loss of mineral soil colloids will likely render the carbon more sensitive to oxidation in the coming decades, particularly during times of exposure of the inundated soils. Assessments of the consequences of water level fluctuations or potential future dam removal need to take the vulnerability of the exposed soils into account.

How to cite: Möckel, S. C., Bonatotzky, T., Mankasingh, U., Alvarez, I., Erlendsson, E., and Gísladóttir, G.: Carbon stocks in submerged soils of a hydro-electric reservoir after 24 years of flooding, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12254, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12254, 2025.

EGU25-13413 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Multilayer Sediment Dynamics in Fluviokarst Systems: Insights from Stable Isotopes and Sensor Measurements 

Leonie Bettel, James Fox, Brenden Riddle, Melissa Beckman, Junfeng Zhu, and Nabil Al Aamery

Karst aquifers, supplying nearly 25% of the global population with drinking water, are critical yet vulnerable resources. While sediment transport modeling in karst systems has progressed, fluviokarst systems remain underexplored, particularly regarding multilayer sediment dynamics during diverse hydrologic events. This study introduces a novel framework integrating stable isotope analyses (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) with high-resolution sensor data to investigate sediment transport mechanisms in Kentucky’s mature fluviokarst systems, focusing on the Cane Run Watershed and Royal Spring Basin in central Kentucky, USA.

 

The multilayer framework hypothesizes that sediment stored at different depths within fluviokarst caves originates from distinct sources and undergoes unique transport processes. During large hydrologic events, a single active sediment layer forms, mobilizing material from sources in the fluvial system to the cave outlet via suspension. Smaller hydrologic events activate only the top sediment layer within the cave, with transport characterized by intermittent deposition and resuspension of surface sediments, fluctuating between suspension and saltation. Surface processes across the fluvial system exhibit a similar pattern: smaller hydrologic events mobilize loose surface material, while larger hydrologic events erode deeper soil layers through gully formation, transporting material into the karst cave systems.

 

Tracer-aided modeling, combining sediment fingerprinting and sediment continuity equations, revealed two primary transport types: (1) larger hydrologic events characterized by high sediment trap weights, lower soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) values, less negative δ¹³C, and more positive δ¹⁵N values; and (2) smaller hydrologic events dominated by surface-derived material with higher SOC and TN values, more negative δ¹³C, and less positive δ¹⁵N values. Isotopic trends highlighted interactions between cave-stored sediment and external sources, with high-discharge hydrologic events mixing bottom layers and low-discharge hydrologic events remobilizing deposited sediment.

 

Three temporal periods were identified, reflecting the stream’s response to in-stream reconstruction: (1) a pre-reconstruction period with low sediment loads, (2) a reconstruction period with elevated sediment loads from disturbances, and (3) a post-reconstruction recovery period with reduced sediment loads as the stream stabilized.

 

This research provides critical insights into sediment transport dynamics in fluviokarst systems, emphasizing the interplay between hydrologic variability, sediment sources, and anthropogenic impacts. It advances predictive capabilities for sediment behavior under future hydrologic and climatic conditions.

How to cite: Bettel, L., Fox, J., Riddle, B., Beckman, M., Zhu, J., and Al Aamery, N.: Multilayer Sediment Dynamics in Fluviokarst Systems: Insights from Stable Isotopes and Sensor Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13413, 2025.

EGU25-16326 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4

Monitoring water and sediment delivery to Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo in the Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia   

Melkamu Teshome Ayana, Alemayehu Kasaye Tilahun, Thomas Torora Minda, and Gert Verstraeten

Human activities like deforestation intensify runoff and soil erosion, leading not only to local land degradation but also to off-site impacts such as excessive lake sediment deposition. Climate change may further exacerbate the erosion rate, particularly where human activity is highest. Hence, the sustainability of natural lakes is threatened by soil erosion and climate change. This is certainly the case for the tropical lakes of Abaya and Chamo in the southern Ethiopian Rift Valley. High rainfall intensities, steep slopes, and increasing population levels make these lakes susceptible to high rates of sedimentation, and rising water levels due to changing sediment and water budgets lead to coastal flooding of agricultural land and infrastructure. However, in order to properly assess the impact of human-induced land use change and climate on the lakes, quantitative assessments of the water and sediment delivery to the lakes are required. High-quality data are often missing for tropical lake environments, especially in developing countries. 

Here, we established seven streamflow and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) monitoring stations across four selected rivers draining to Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo: Bilate (5480 km²), Elgo (298 km²), Kulfo (467.2 km²) and Shafe (191 km²). Together, these stations monitor 35% of the total area contributing to both lakes. Streamflow was measured at 10-minute intervals using a transducer, with atmospheric pressure corrections from a Baro diver. In total, 3501 samples were collected to measure SSC. Observed SSC ranges from 0.08 g/l to 107.75 g/l, whereas discharge varies between 0.01 and 410.65 m³/s. Sediment rating curves were developed using SSC and streamflow data to enable the estimation of total suspended sediment yield (SY) using continuous streamflow records. SY from the four gauged catchments was calculated at 11.3 Mt/year, with area-specific SY varying between 1083.43 and 10117.5 t/km²/year. Overall, Bilate River contributes 67% of the total sediment load, making it the most significant river in terms of the total SY. However, when normalized by catchment area, the Gamo highland catchments have higher net erosion rates. Strong temporal variability in SSC and SY is observed, which can be explained by seasonal changes in vegetation cover and rainfall intensity. Time series of SSC for each river can be correlated with NDVI-data in the corresponding catchments and rainfall erosivity calculated from high-resolution meteorological data. Catchments draining the Gamo highlands have their highest sediment transport rates at the start of the rainy season (May to June) when vegetation cover is low, contributing 60% of SY. In contrast, Bilate, which drains the rift valley itself, experiences a peak sediment yield in August-September, representing 61% of its annual SY.

The integration of satellite-derived NDVI, high-resolution rainfall erosivity data, and timeseries of SSC and discharge enables to identify periods and areas of enhanced erosion and sediment delivery to the lakes. Such spatio-temporal information will be used to calibrate and validate erosion models, which in turn can simulate the impact of management scenarios on lake water and sediment budgets.

How to cite: Ayana, M. T., Tilahun, A. K., Minda, T. T., and Verstraeten, G.: Monitoring water and sediment delivery to Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo in the Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16326, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16326, 2025.

EGU25-16498 | Orals | HS9.4

Divergent responses of hillslope-gully systems controlled by check dams to rainstorm events in the Loess Plateau, China. 

Yang Yu, Juanlong Feng, Zhiqiang Zhang, Stefano Crema, and Marco Cavalli

Hydrological forcings and erosion dynamics are influenced by natural factors and anthropogenic activities. Flooding events associated with climate change are attributed to heightened rainfall intensity and frequency, alterations in landscape patterns across various scales, and an elevated risk of flooding and water scarcity. This study combined landscape pattern indices with sediment connectivity to analyze changes in sediment connectivity during extreme rainfall events in various check dam-controlled hillslope-gully systems. Aerial and field surveys of four systems within the Caijiachuan watershed, conducted before and after the rainstorm event in October 2021, utilized unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and remote sensing imagery. Landscape indices were applied to analyze the spatial pattern characteristics preceding and following the rainstorm event. The sediment connectivity index (IC) assessed sediment transport connections in the chosen systems. It was found that extreme precipitation led to increased landscape fragmentation, decreased biodiversity, and higher sediment connectivity, especially on steep slopes compared to gully channels. Soil erosion hotspots were found on slopes between 0-50°, with landslides occurring in areas of high sediment connectivity. This altered the landscape pattern and further boosted sediment connectivity. Various hillslope-gully systems reacted differently to rainstorms. This study highlights the value of using sediment connectivity to assess check dams' responses to extreme precipitation, improve watershed and land management strategies, and evaluate soil erosion control measures in fragile ecosystems.

How to cite: Yu, Y., Feng, J., Zhang, Z., Crema, S., and Cavalli, M.: Divergent responses of hillslope-gully systems controlled by check dams to rainstorm events in the Loess Plateau, China., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16498, 2025.

EGU25-18239 | Posters on site | HS9.4

The Taming of the Blue: River engineering along the Danube and its impact on the sedimentary record downstream of Vienna. 

Michael Weissl, Diana Hatzenbühler, Christian Baumgartner, and Michael Wagreich

Since Roman times, the Danube River has been an important traffic way. Along the banks of this stream, some of the oldest cities of Central and Eastern Europe were built. Many conflicts were fought out in the Danube floodplains for hundreds of years with the aim of getting control over navigation, commercial centres, strongholds, and the surrounding territories.

After a long period of wars and political crisis during the first half of the 19th century, the capital of the Habsburg Empire started a series of improvement measurements projected long before. Besides the drinking water supply and the demolition of the city's fortifications, the Danube River engineering was the most momentous building project in this period of industrialization. Thanks to new efficient machines and know-how developed by digging the Suez Canal, it was possible to corset the branched Danube River in a new and straightened bed, limited by bank reinforcements and dykes. A highly dynamic river system characterized by fast-changing flow rates, variable water levels, and migrating river branches was transformed in a well-defined channel.

Great effort was made to achieve three goals: good navigability along this part of the Upper Danube, flood protection sufficient for a growing metropolis, and channelized waterways near to the urban centres for the supply of foods and wood and for the wastewater draining as well. The requirements of river engineering had various effects on the resulting fluvial dynamics; some of them were premeditated, others were unfavourable but accepted, and several were entirely unexpected.

This study aims to analyse the evolving fluvial system and assess the role of human intervention by investigating sequences of flood events archived within levees in selected places downstream of Vienna. By combining sedimentological with historical methods, we seek to show the sedimentary evidence of a changing fluvial system responding to the increasing human impact during the last 200 years. 

Primarily, the channelizing of the Danube River resulted in increased flow rates and accelerated bed load transportation. These changes significantly impacted the volume of moved gravel within the riverbed and contributed to fluctuating water levels. As a result of the river straightening process, water levels often deviate from desired conditions – occasionally rising higher but more frequently being lower than optimal levels. Bank reinforcements hinder lateral water flow and erosion as well, resulting in the aggradation within the floodplain and loss of habitats.

Since the 1950s, a chain of ten hydroelectric power plants has been built along the Austrian Danube blocking the transport of coarse bed load by barrages. The alternation of backwater areas upstream of the dams and fast-flowing stretches below results in a fractionated sedimentation of coarse bedload and fine sediment within different sections of the Danube. Extreme flood events can mobilize large amounts of such separate deposits, forming huge levees after the redeposition within the free-flowing section downstream of Vienna.

How to cite: Weissl, M., Hatzenbühler, D., Baumgartner, C., and Wagreich, M.: The Taming of the Blue: River engineering along the Danube and its impact on the sedimentary record downstream of Vienna., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18239, 2025.

EGU25-18633 | Posters on site | HS9.4

The impact of missing sources and the emergence of multiple solutions in sediment fingerprinting: When not all sources are included 

Leticia Gaspar, Borja Latorre, Ivan Lizaga, and Ana Navas

Accurate identification of sediment sources is crucial for reliable source apportionment in sediment fingerprinting studies. However, the sensitivity of unmixing models to incomplete source information remains underexplored. This study investigates the impact of missing sources on unmixing model results, assessing the effects of deliberately omitting one source, simulating the effect of oversight or incorrect fieldwork. In this contribution, experimental sediment mixtures with four known sources (S1: 23.3%, S2: 23.3%, S3: 23.3%, and S4: 30%) and 18 geochemical tracers were analysed and the FingerPro unmixing model was implemented to estimate the relative contribution of sediment sources in different scenarios. Initially, the model was tested with all four sources, and the estimated source contributions closely aligned with the theoretical values. Before unmixing, an analysis of the conservativeness index (CI), consensus ranking (CR), and mathematical consistency (CTS) of the tracers was conducted, showing good consistency for most tracers (CTS errors below 0.06) when all four sources were included. However, when one source (S4) was excluded, the predicted source contributions became inaccurate. Additionally, a significant decline in mathematical consistency for most tracers was observed. These results highlight the challenges in achieving accurate source apportionment when critical information is missing. The study emphasises the importance of considering all relevant sources, as the omission of a key source leads to significant errors in interpreting the contributions of the remaining sources, ultimately resulting in incorrect conclusions. Furthermore, the potential use of CI, CR, and CTS tools for evaluating model reliability is discussed, particularly in the presence of missing sources. There is limited understanding of how unmixing models behave when faced with contributions that cannot be explained by the initial sources provided for the unmixing process. Instead of attributing these unexplained contributions to a potential unknown source, the models appear to redistribute them across the initial sources. This research highlights the need for further developments in unmixing models to better handle these limitations, which complicate the accurate estimation and interpretation of results. Missing sources in sediment fingerprinting datasets can lead to multiple solutions, resulting in erroneous model outputs. Our results suggest that these situations can be detected through mathematical consistency analysis (CTS).

How to cite: Gaspar, L., Latorre, B., Lizaga, I., and Navas, A.: The impact of missing sources and the emergence of multiple solutions in sediment fingerprinting: When not all sources are included, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18633, 2025.

Changes of discharge (Q) and sediment yield (SSY) during flood events provide critical insights for flood disaster prevention and control. However, our understanding of the long-term variations and driving factors of Q-SSY relationships during flood events remains limited. This study examined the variations in QSSY and sediment rating curves (SSY = aQb) during maximum flood events (one, three, and five) across fifteen catchments in the China’s Loess Plateau during 1956-2019. The partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to quantitatively decouple the effects of driving factors (precipitation, soil, vegetation, topography, and soil and water conservation measures (SWCMs)). There was a significant declining trend in both Q and SSY during flood events across catchments, but the contribution of these events to annual SSY significantly increased by 41.48% during 1956-2019, underscoring the critical role of floods in sediment transport. The Q-SSY relationship during flood events weakened over time, with coefficient a decreased and index b increased. In addition, 44 - 49% and 36 - 51% of the changes in a and b can be attributed to the comprehensive effects of the five factors, respectively. The direct effects of vegetation (-0.921) and precipitation (0.616) on coefficient a were significant. Index b was principally dominated by SWCMs and vegetation, and the effects diminished from one to five flood events. These findings highlight the importance of increased vegetation cover and effective SWCMs in mitigating sediment transportation processes, and informs the development of tailored sediment management strategies for the Loess Plateau and similar regions.

How to cite: Gao, G.: Quantitatively decoupling the relationships between discharge and sediment yield during flood events in China's Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19415, 2025.

Small, shallow lakes are under severe stress from the combined impact of anthropogenic eutrophication and modern climate change. Therefore, such lacustrine sediments provide key information for understanding the lake’s eutrophication and the ongoing unprecedented climate change. The present work focuses on the saline Kallar Kahar Lake located in the Salt Range of Pakistan, to unravel the extend of anthropogenic impacts and climate change on sedimentation in lakes using a core section of 180 cm. Dark gray marly mud dominates with interlayered greenish-gray sandy/silty layers in the lower part. Geochemical results indicate that the SiO2 and Al2O3 contents drop to around one-third (from 54.6% to 16.4% and from 9.8% to 3.5% respectively) vertically upward in the cored interval, whereas the CaO content displays a three-fold upward increase (from 11% to around 30%). Similarly, the Total Organic Carbon (TOC) and Total Organic Sulphur (TOS) contents show a three-fold vertical upward increase (from 3% to > 15% and < 0.3%  to 0.9%). The paleoredox proxies V/(V + Ni), V/Cr, and especially Th/U indicate an upward decrease in the oxygenation level and establishment of an anoxic setting in the lake. Paleoclimate proxies including Mg/Ca, Rb/Sr, and Sr/V indicate a progressive upward increase in the aridity. Paleosalinity proxies Sr/Ba and Rb/K  suggest an upward increase in the salinity of the lake. The anthropogenic impact proxy elements Mo and Hg indicate enrichment and display strong negative correlations with detrital supply. Similarly, As, Pb, Zn, and P neither correlate with the detrital influx proxies nor with in situ sedimentation proxies thereby pointing to their anthropogenic source. These results indicate that urbanization and anthropogenic activities have blocked the natural drainage of the Kallar Kahar Lake, reducing the detrital influx to around one-third. The increasing aridity of the area due to modern climate change has transformed the lake into a closed-water body where evaporation has increased the salinity forcing a nearly three-fold increase in the in-situ organic carbonate production in the sampled interval. Thus the Kallar Kahar Lake provides an ideal case study site to understand the eutrophication of shallow lakes due to anthropogenic drainage blockage, pollutants inputs and impacts of modern climate change that is observed in many small shallow lakes globally.

How to cite: Iqbal, S., Bibi, M., and Wagreich, M.: Geochemical signals for anthropogenic eutrophication and climate change from the Kallar Kahar Lake, Salt Range, Pakistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19498, 2025.

EGU25-19703 | ECS | Orals | HS9.4 | Highlight

Additional stratigraphic marker for an Anthropocene at the Karlsplatz reference site (Vienna, Austria) 

Maria Meszar, Michael Wagreich, Martin Mosser, Neil Rose, Peter Nagl, and Karin Hain

Urban deposits pose many challenges compared to natural archives. Due do anthropogenic influence they often have only limited lateral continuity, highly variable deposition rates, are prone to (anthropogenic) erosion, reworking and resedimentation, and show omission surfaces. In Vienna (Austria) we investigated sediments from an archaeological excavation site near the city centre as part of a transdisciplinary project involving geosciences, isotope physics and urban archaeology. The study area at Karlsplatz is situated near the Wien River and records the change in land use of the expanding city. The site covers a section from natural flood sediments (17th century) and anthropogenic fill (before 1900) of the Wien River to the latest levelling period of the park area in the 1950s. Archaeological stratigraphy and historic data sets provide age constraints for the multiple deposition phases, with the oldest road structures dating from the 18th century and the youngest deposits dating around 1922, post-1945 and the park opening in 1959 (Mosser et al., 2022). Atmospheric bomb-testing fallout plutonium was used for further Anthropocene age constraints (Wagreich et al., 2023) dating the upper layer as deposited between 1952 and 1959.
The fine-grained matrix (< 2 mm grain size) of the deposits was used for X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of trace elements such as lead, copper and zinc. The highest levels of trace metals (Cu 330 ppm, Pb 633 ppm, Zn 852 ppm) are present in sediments of a 19th century deposit rich in charcoal and metal slags associated with nearby metal-working industry. The second highest peak occurs in a layer of WW2 rubble rich in technofossils of that era (Cu 71 ppm, Pb 208 ppm, 296 ppm). Overlying deposits of the 1950s show again much lower values (Cu 24 ppm, Pb 28 ppm, Zn 61 ppm) similar to the range of low contamination background and infill materials, although the uppermost topsoil layer shows a slight recent enrichment (Cu 35 ppm, Pb 56 ppm, Zn 99 ppm) compared to the 1950s. Spheroidal carbonaceous fly-ash particles (SCPs), the product of industrial coal and oil combustion, were found in elevated concentrations in the post-1945 levels. These results indicate both a local (iron industry of the 19th century, WW2 pollution) and a regional-global (e.g. lead from leaded gasoline, fly ash particles) control on trace metal and fly ash contamination and a correlation with technofossil findings. In conclusion, additional stratigraphic markers for the Anthropocene were identified and quantified in the urban anthropogenic sediments of the Karlsplatz site. Therefore, the site may be used as a correlative stratigraphic reference section for the Anthropocene.

 

References:

Mosser et al. 2022. Fundort Wien, 25, 2022, 4-53.

Wagreich et al., 2023. The Anthropocene Review, 2023, 10/1, 316-329. doi 10.1177/20530196221136427

How to cite: Meszar, M., Wagreich, M., Mosser, M., Rose, N., Nagl, P., and Hain, K.: Additional stratigraphic marker for an Anthropocene at the Karlsplatz reference site (Vienna, Austria), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19703, 2025.

EGU25-20861 | Posters on site | HS9.4

Identification of critical source areas for sediment erosion (and phosphorus loss) in a small agricultural catchment 

Christopher Thoma, Elmar Schmaltz, Borbala Szeles, Miriam Bertola, Carmen Krammer, Peter Strauss, and Günter Blöschl

This study focuses on addressing soil erosion and phosphorus (P) runoff, critical issues for agricultural sustainability and water quality. Conducted in the Hydrological Open Air Laboratory (HOAL) in Petzenkirchen, Austria, the research aims to identify fields prone to erosion and predict future sediment and P loss under different scenarios. The 60-hectare HOAL catchment, typical of Austria’s Alpine foothills, offers diverse land use and extensive historical data, making it ideal for such investigations.Using data from 2010 to 2020, the study examines factors like soil management, fertilizer use, and erosive rainfall events. Advanced geospatial and statistical techniques, including GIS tools and regression models, will help map erosion-prone areas and identify key drivers of sediment and P loss.

The research aims to produce risk maps that inform land management decisions, helping to reduce sediment and P loss from high-risk fields. These findings will support sustainable agricultural practices and be useful for policymakers, farmers, and environmental scientists working to balance productivity with environmental protection.


Keywords: Soil Erosion, P loss, Water Quality, Sustainable Agriculture, Erosion Susceptibility

How to cite: Thoma, C., Schmaltz, E., Szeles, B., Bertola, M., Krammer, C., Strauss, P., and Blöschl, G.: Identification of critical source areas for sediment erosion (and phosphorus loss) in a small agricultural catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20861, 2025.

EGU25-457 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Decoding the geochemical mosaic of organic matter in the freshwater lake system of Kashmir Valley through molecular approach 

Soumyashree Behera, Aakanksha Kumari, Arshid Jehangir, Diptimayee Behera, and Anoop Ambili and the Soumyashree Behera

The research aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Organic matter (OM) through molecular characterization within the spatial distribution of a freshwater lake system. The sedimentary biomarkers, the n-alkane indices were used for determining OM inputs from terrestrial and aquatic sources of the aquatic system

Shift in OM sources within the lake along with Paq , ACL and CPI values were analyzed with integration of grain size data for assessment of the origin and processes affecting the preservation of OM.

This approach is crucial in gaining insights how OM is distributed, and preserved, its nutrient cycling, and blend of natural and anthropogenic influences that impact ecological balance.

How to cite: Behera, S., Kumari, A., Jehangir, A., Behera, D., and Ambili, A. and the Soumyashree Behera: Decoding the geochemical mosaic of organic matter in the freshwater lake system of Kashmir Valley through molecular approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-457, 2025.

Nitrogen and water availability are the primary environmental factors limiting crop productivity on a global scale. Nitrogen behaviour in the subsurface is influenced by multiple factors, including continuous wetting, wetting/drying cycles, temperature, system design, and TWW quality, which are often challenging to quantify. This study examined these dynamics using batch adsorption and a laboratory-scale soil aquifer treatment system, simulated in a glass column filled with agricultural soil, to investigate the effects of synthetic ammonium solution under alternating wet and dry cycles. The study focused on ammonium removal and transformation, specifically  ammonium and nitrate, under varying wetting and drying phases. Constant-concentration synthetic wastewater was introduced, allowing analysis of how soil water content, pH, dissolved oxygen, and nitrogen concentrations impacted the geochemical properties of the soil medium. Batch adsorption experiments indicated strong alignment with Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models, suggesting heterogeneous adsorption sites and varying affinities. pH-edge experiments further revealed that ammonium adsorption was greater in alkaline conditions, indicating a pH-dependent mechanism. The column experiment continued for 52 days, studying three scenarios: (1) continuous flow, (2) alternate day wetting and drying, and (3) three days of drying followed by one day of wetting. Under drier conditions, increased ammonium transformation and sorption occur due to the formation of anoxic zones. Therefore, in the third scenario, anoxic conditions are formed, leading to a greater reduction in hydraulic conductivity. This study offers valuable insights and a strong scientific basis for the protection and management of groundwater and soil quality in agricultural areas.  

How to cite: Kumar, A. and Yadav, B.: Investigating Ammoniacal Nitrogen Transport in Subsurface under Alternating Dry-Wet Conditions Using Batch and Column Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-879, 2025.

EGU25-9540 | PICO | HS9.6

Accelerated sediment transfers may lead to delayed environmental pollution: the case of chlordecone insecticide in the French West Indies  

Olivier Evrard, Rémi Bizeul, Lai Ting Pak, Anthony Foucher, Thomas Grangeon, and Olivier Cerdan

Among contaminants leading to widespread environmental contamination and associated population and ecosystem health problems, the chlordecone insecticide has been in the spotlight in the last several decades. This organochlorine substance has been intensively used to fight against the banana weevil in the multiple banana plantations of the French West Indies between 1972 and 1993. More than 30 years after its official ban, it is still found in multiple environmental compartments of Martinique and Guadeloupe Islands, and its persistence in the environment remains strongly debated within the scientific community.

In order to shed new light on this question, an original experimental approach combining the detection of chlordecone and that of fallout radionuclides (Pb-210, Cs-137) in soil and sediment cores collected in a cultivated headwater catchment was carried out (Saint-Esprit, Martinique). Fallout radionuclides indeed provide powerful tools to date lacustrine sediment cores and reconstruct soil redistribution rates since the onset of the atmospheric nuclear tests mostly conducted in the 1950s and 1960s.

This approach showed that high and unsustainable erosion rates (i.e. 10 t ha−1 yr−1) took place in the study area during the study period (1980-2023). This excessive erosion was associated with a significant transfer of particle-bound chlordecone insecticide that was shown to accumulate in colluvial deposits generated at the bottom of hillslopes planted with banana trees. These transfers accelerated in time, with an increase detected in lacustrine sediment cores in 2006 in response to change in landscape management practices (e.g. through the introduction of herbicides to remove weeds under plantations). 

Overall, when considering the measured pesticides stocks in the catchment and when taking account of pesticide particle-bound transfers only, this experimental approach led to estimations of chlordecone residence times in the landscape comprised between 4000 and 11,000 years, which urges to take measures to limit soil erosion and transfers of contaminated sediment to downstream environments.

How to cite: Evrard, O., Bizeul, R., Pak, L. T., Foucher, A., Grangeon, T., and Cerdan, O.: Accelerated sediment transfers may lead to delayed environmental pollution: the case of chlordecone insecticide in the French West Indies , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9540, 2025.

EGU25-9900 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6 | Highlight

Impact of rainfall variability on sedimentary and hydropower dynamics in a dam reservoir of southern France (1950-2023 )  

Paul Hazet, Anthony Foucher, Olivier Evrard, and Benjamin Quesada

Hydropower is the leading renewable energy technology, yet its vulnerability to combined environmental factors, particularly in the context of climate change, remains understudied. While the effects of climate change on hydropower are well-documented, research addressing the interplay between precipitation variability, sediment dynamics, and their effects on hydropower operations is lacking. This study investigates these interactions in the French Mediterranean region, with a focus on the Mont d’Orb dam reservoir.

An integrated approach was adopted and consisted of three main steps: (1) a sediment core analysis, relying on the establishment of an age model based on fallout radionuclide measurements, was conducted to reconstruct the influence of extreme rainfall events on sediment yield; (2) precipitation data from weather stations were statistically analyzed to identify temporal trends and shifts; and (3) dam water level and hydropower data, supplied by the operator, were analyzed to assess the combined effects of sediment accumulation, precipitation variability, and water level changes on hydropower generation.

The results show that extreme rainfall events contributed 20–60% of the annual sediment yield. While annual precipitation trends since 1950 showed no statistically significant changes, a seasonal shift in precipitation patterns was detected. Although sediment accumulation is currently not a primary constraint to hydropower generation due to reservoir management strategies, it may pose a long-term risk to storage capacity and turbine operation as it approaches critical levels. These findings highlight a critical gap in sediment management practices and emphasize the need for developing strategies to adapt to the currently changing climatic and hydrological conditions. This study highlights the necessity of integrating sediment and precipitation variability into hydropower planning to ensure its long-term sustainability in a context with an increasing frequency of droughts and extreme rainfall events exacerbated by climate change, particularly in the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Hazet, P., Foucher, A., Evrard, O., and Quesada, B.: Impact of rainfall variability on sedimentary and hydropower dynamics in a dam reservoir of southern France (1950-2023 ) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9900, 2025.

EGU25-10310 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Sediments pathways to small rivers in loamy agricultural region and where to find them 

Emilie Peiffer, Adrien Michez, and Aurore Degré

Fine sediments cause a wide range of damages to rivers, impacting morphology and aquatic communities. Sediments in rivers come from bank erosion and catchment erosion. Tackling erosion in small agricultural river catchments is essential because this part of the landscape is the production zone: where erosion and sediment production take place. Analysis of catchments area is crucial because river ecosystems are closely linked to their watershed and their land use.

Measures to reduce erosion can be taken within the watershed but this research focuses on the riparian zone associated with small downstream (semi)-permanent rivers (catchments > 1 km²). Indeed, these small rivers are where the characteristics of the riparian zone exert a strong control on the aquatic environment, notably by filtering sediments from the land. As erosion is not uniform across the landscape, the aim of the research is to identify where riparian vegetation should be used to mitigate sediment transfer and deposition. The objectives of this research are twofold: i) to locate small agricultural catchments prone to sediment transfer to the river, ii) to understand how riparian zones can better control sediment transfer from the land to the river.

We conducted our analysis in the erosion-prone loess region of Wallonia (southern Belgium), where about 65% of the surface is used for agriculture. To identify sites of sediment transfer in this region, catchments areas of at least 0.2 km² with an outlet in small rivers (> 1 km²) are drawn. To describe the erosion process, soil type, slope, land use and agricultural background are analysed for each identified catchment. The land use data allow to exclude watersheds that are too urban or too impermeable by roads or railways. Among the selected catchments, the intensity with which the crop can favour sediment production is analysed based on crop history (from 2015 to 2022), with a focus on erosion-prone crops like maize, sugar beet or potatoes. The riparian zone associated with the outlet of these small catchments is described using several parameters: the height above nearest drainage, the size of the downward river, and the angle at which the concentrated flow enters the river. The width, the height, the composition and the continuity of the riparian zone around the confluence are also analysed. Sediment deposition signal at the outlet is investigated using the difference between two regional LiDAR DEMs acquired in 2011 and 2022. We expect the catchment characteristics to determine the intensity of the deposition process. We also compare the physical parameters of the riparian zone with the deposition intensity to assess its sediment filtering ecosystem service. The presentation will show the current progress of this research.

How to cite: Peiffer, E., Michez, A., and Degré, A.: Sediments pathways to small rivers in loamy agricultural region and where to find them, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10310, 2025.

EGU25-11054 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Evolution of the impact of land use changes and agricultural practices on sediment delivery in the Uruguayan Pampa 

Amaury Bardelle, Renaldo Gastineau, Anthony Foucher, Floriane Guillevic, Pierre-Alexis Chaboche, Guillermo Chalar, Marcos Tassano, Pierre Sabatier, Nathalie Cottin, Olivier Cerdan, and Olivier Evrard

South America has experienced significant landscape transformations over the last century, with the expansion of agriculture (pasture, cropland, plantations) at the expense of natural ecosystems (forest, grassland).

More specifically, the Rio de la Plata Grasslands composing the Pampa biome, a temperate grassland ecosystem, mainly located in Uruguay and north Argentina, is among the regions with the highest global rates of land-use change, thereby threatening its biodiversity, land and water resources. 

 

The consequences of agricultural development in this region have been poorly documented since its beginning. 
Retrospective analysis using sediment coring can provide valuable insights into these impacts over extended periods. 
Such a retrospective was successfully conducted by Foucher et al (2023) \cite{foucher_inexorable_2023}. Nevertheless, their sediment core did not reach the reservoir's bottom, limiting the reconstruction of these processes to the post-1990 period.

 

In this study, we are analysing a sediment core collected in the Rincon del Bonete dam, draining a 39,500 km² catchment, and dated back to 1948. Various analyses were performed along this sedimentary archive in order to date and characterise the sediment properties (gamma spectrometry, high-resolution geochemical content analysis (XRF), pesticides) and their changes with time. 
Statistical analyses of the sediment fluxes enabled the differentiation of distinct phases in the sediment delivery process.

 

The Rincon del Bonete catchment in Uruguay has undergone substantial changes of land-use and farming practices, reflecting the broader challenges of environmental degradation in the Pampa region.
Available data over the region show that forest plantations expanded from less than 1\% of the area in 1985 to over 10\% in 2022. Concurrently, agricultural and pastoral land use increased by over 250\% between 1985 and 2022, while natural grasslands declined from covering 80\% of the basin to just 60\%. 
Results show that these changes have led to four distinct phases in sedimentation recorded in the lake archive: an initial period (1948-1964) of reservoir filling and early basin degradation in the northern Brazilian part of the catchment, characterised by extensive DDT insecticide use; a second period (1964-1985) of conventional tillage agriculture with a mix of agriculture-pasture and the beginning of intensive pesticides use in Uruguay (1970-1980). The third phase (1985-2007) was then characterised by a shift to no-tillage agriculture, afforestation, with a notable expansion of this practice occurring between 1999-2005, and the observation of an associated decrease of sediment delivery. During the final phase (from 2007 onwards), rapid and large agricultural expansion under continuous no-tillage practices and wood harvesting led to a large usage of pesticide and to an increase of sediment delivery despite a second notable phase of afforestation in 2007-2014.

 

This study highlighted the influence of land use changes and agricultural practices on sediment delivery since WWII, revealing the occurrence of high sedimentation rates during early conventional tillage and the onset of pesticide use, followed by a reduction of these rates during the transition to no-tillage and afforestation, and a marked increase with large-scale agricultural expansion and wood harvesting.

How to cite: Bardelle, A., Gastineau, R., Foucher, A., Guillevic, F., Chaboche, P.-A., Chalar, G., Tassano, M., Sabatier, P., Cottin, N., Cerdan, O., and Evrard, O.: Evolution of the impact of land use changes and agricultural practices on sediment delivery in the Uruguayan Pampa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11054, 2025.

Assessing sediment transfer and provenance in large river basins is complex due to the variety of processes involved and the variability of their controlling factors. In this study, we attempt to quantify the provenance and transfer of fine sediment in the Rhine basin by adopting a synoptic sampling approach. Following a minor flood event during the end of August and beginning of September 2023, which originated in the alpine part of the Rhine basin, we collected samples of freshly deposited fine sediments along the banks of the main branch of the Rhine River and its four major tributaries (Aare, Neckar, Main, Mosel). These samples were mostly collected from hard surfaces (e.g., bank reinforcements, ferry landings) just above the water line. The samples were analysed for elemental composition using ICP-MS. A principal component analysis was performed on the element concentrations. The first principal component was interpreted as the main factor reflecting the  geogenic variation of the sediment composition. Next, a sediment transfer model that accounts for sediment supply to and sediment retention within the river network was set up. The model inputs include a digital elevation model of the river basin, the interpolated scores of the first  principal component based on element concentrations from the FOREGS geochemical atlas, and RUSLE-based estimates of sediment production. The model was calibrated using the ‘observed’ scores of the first principal component in the High Rhine and impounded section Upper Rhine (section between the Rhine-Aare confluence and Iffezheim).

The model results reveal that spatial variation in sediment supply to the river network is primarily controlled by area-specific event runoff and, to a lesser extent, by long-term sediment production. Furthermore, the model results demonstrate the relative importance of nearby sediment sources over sources further upstream: on average the relative importance of the source declines by 1.1% per kilometre downstream transport. It is likely that both retention of fine sediments in the channel network during transport and entrainment of fine sediments due to bank erosion or channel bed incision are at play and explain this decline. The patterns of deviations of the model predictions from measured sediment composition in the free-flowing section of the Upper Rhine and in the upper part of the Lower Rhine suggests that about 50% of the fine sediments reaching the Rhine delta may be derived from sediment nourishments to mitigate channel bed incision.

How to cite: van der Perk, M., Cox, J., and Middelkoop, H.: Composition of freshly deposited fine sediments during the 2023 summer flood event in the Rhine River basin: implications for sediment transfer and provenance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12859, 2025.

EGU25-13442 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Dynamics of Clay Nanoparticle-Associated Trace Metals from Soil to Groundwater: Insights from Contrasting Geological Settings. 

Ruth Amenuvela Ewouame, Sophia Sieber, Dirk Merten, and Thorsten Schäfer

Fluid infiltration plays a crucial role in transporting dissolved elements and may serve as a pathway for nanoparticles from soil surface to the subsurface. Smectite-type nanoparticles, as a key soil mineral component, can act as efficient carriers of cations due to their negative surface charge and large specific surface area. This study aims to understand the dynamics of smectite-type nanoparticles-associated trace metal, focusing on rare earth elements (REEs), from soil to groundwater at two contrasting sites in Thuringia, Germany, namely the Hainich Critical Zone Exploratory (carbonate/siliciclastic bedrock) and Saale-Elster-Sandsteinplatte Observatory (siliciclastic bedrock). Engineered Ni-montmorillonite (Ni-mnt) nanoparticles, synthesized hydrothermally as described by (Reinholdt et al., 2013) were used as tracers.

Nanoparticle migration requires stability against aggregation, influenced by pH, ionic strength, and natural organic matter (NOM). The effect of above-mentioned parameters on stability of Ni-mnt was investigated under controlled conditions in synthetic waters simulating surface-to-subsurface transitions and natural waters from lysimeter and well samples at both sites. Stability was assessed using dynamic light scattering (DLS), while REE adsorption and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were evaluated with Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Liquid Chromatography – Organic Carbon Detection – Organic Nitrogen Detection (LC-OCD-OND), respectively.

As expected, Ni-mnt stability decreases in Calcium-rich environments and increases in high pH and NOM-rich environments as indicated by the critical coagulation concentration (Ca-CCC). Without NOM, Ca-CCC values of Ni-mnt were in the range of 2.5 mM to 5 mM in the pH range 5 to 8. In contrast, in the presence of NOM, (3.3 mg/L of [DOC]), Ca-CCC values rose to 8 mM at pH 5 and 6, and 15 mM at pH 7 and 8. As revealed by LC-OCD-OND measurements Ni-mnt stabilization is likely due to an association of high molecular weight DOC such as biopolymers and humics.

REEs preferentially adsorb onto organics rather than Ni-mnt under the competitive conditions chosen. Desorption experiments show that light REEs are stronger bond by Ni-mnt (slower reversibility kinetics).

These results highlight the critical role of NOM, particularly biopolymers and humics, in stabilizing clay nanoparticles and influencing REE transport. While NOM reduces aggregation under low to moderate ionic strengths, high ionic strength induces aggregation through cation bridging.

 

Reference

Reinholdt, M. X., Brendle, J., Tuilier, M. H., Kaliaguine, S., & Ambroise, E. (2013). Hydrothermal Synthesis and Characterization of Ni-Al Montmorillonite-Like Phyllosilicates. Nanomaterials (Basel), 3(1), 48-69. https://doi.org/10.3390/nano3010048

How to cite: Ewouame, R. A., Sieber, S., Merten, D., and Schäfer, T.: Dynamics of Clay Nanoparticle-Associated Trace Metals from Soil to Groundwater: Insights from Contrasting Geological Settings., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13442, 2025.

EGU25-13659 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

The role of geomorphic connectivity on the mobilisation of artisan mine tailings 

Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Tom Coulthard, Francis Gonzalvo, Decibel Eslava, and Richard Williams

Artisan small-scale mining (ASM) plays an important role in the global mineral supply but is also a considerable contributor of contamination, due to the unregulated nature of the ASM sector. Artisan mine tailings, often contaminated with trace metals and chemicals used at the extraction process, are typically disposed in the local environment where they enter rivers and spread through sediment transport processes. This unsustainable practice has been largely ignored because ASM mines and processing facilities are tiny compared to their industrial equivalents, despite the fact that ASM collectively accounts for a substantial proportion of global mining output (20% gold, 26% tantalum, 25% tin). Here we examine a small Philippine catchment with extensive ASM activity and use the Caesar-Lisflood numerical model to show that 73% of solid mine tailings (SMT) disposed by pushing them into nearby watercourses during a decade of ASM operation are mobilised becoming a diffuse source of pollution that is difficult to manage. Conversely, when SMT are not disposed into watercourses and instead deposited at the location of ore processing only 26% is mobilised, primarily from areas of high geomorphic connectivity near rivers. 90 years after mine cessation, the amount of diffuse pollution increases further to 80% when SMT have been disposed into rives and only to 30% when SMT have been deposited locally. These results show that the legacy of mine waste dispersal long after ASM has stopped is heavily influenced by the initial decision to dispose or deposit SMT. Our findings underscore that diffuse pollution from the ASM sector must not be overlooked and approaches must be taken to sustainably manage ASM tailings now and in the future.

How to cite: Vasilopoulos, G., Coulthard, T., Gonzalvo, F., Eslava, D., and Williams, R.: The role of geomorphic connectivity on the mobilisation of artisan mine tailings, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13659, 2025.

This study assesses sediment and water pollution in major rivers of Korea (Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Yeongsan River) and additional rivers in the Saemangeum and Cheongyang regions. The sources of contamination are traced using geochemical methods. A total of 28 sediment samples and 28 river water samples were collected from six rivers, along with six subsoil samples from non-polluted areas to establish background levels of heavy metals.

The river water samples met Korea’s water quality standards, confirming effective management of these rivers. However, sediment analysis revealed varying contamination levels for different elements. Several sediment samples showed Grade II–III contamination (As: 8 samples, Cd: 4 samples, Cr: 5 samples, Cu: 10 samples, Ni: 14 samples, Pb: 9 samples, Zn: 9 samples). Additionally, As (2 samples) and Cd (1 sample) were classified as Grade IV. Upon overall assessment, 3 of the 28 sediment samples were classified as "very poor" and 8 as "poor," confirming contamination in sediments from six river regions.

Geochemical indices, such as the enrichment factor (EF) and geo-accumulation index (Igeo), indicated clear contamination levels relative to background concentrations, in line with the results of the pollution assessment. However, Pearson correlation analysis between heavy metal concentrations in water and sediment showed no significant linear correlations for most metals (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn).

Rare earth element (REE) analysis showed a predominance of light REEs (LREEs) over heavy REEs (HREEs) in all river sediments, consistent with the influence of granitic bedrock in Korea. The highest HREE/LREE ratio was found in ND (Nakdong river) region sediments, suggesting a potential influence from marine environments.

Future work will include isotopic analysis (Cu, Pb, Zn) to more precisely trace contamination sources. Integrating geochemical indices, REE distribution patterns, and isotopic ratios is expected to enhance the accuracy of pollution assessment and source tracing.

 

How to cite: Han, H.-J., Lee, S. Y., and Cho, D.-W.: Geochemical Assessment and Preliminary Source Tracing of Sediment and Water Pollution in Major Korean Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14251, 2025.

EGU25-17362 | PICO | HS9.6

Impact of Mining Activities on Water Contamination by Heavy Metals and Cyanide in the Hiré Region, Ivory Coast 

Assiata Traore Dosso, Robin Marc Dufour, Jean Kan Kouamé, and Nathalie Chèvre

Mining activities, both industrial and artisanal, play a crucial role in economic development but often come with significant environmental costs, particularly through water contamination. The Hiré region in Ivory Coast is significantly impacted by extensive gold mining and the intensive use of chemicals in ore processing, posing substantial risks to groundwater quality. While industrial mining is subject to regulations, unregulated artisanal mining practices contribute significantly to environmental contamination. This study evaluates the distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) and pollution indices, including the Enrichment Factor (EF), Heavy Metal Pollution Index (HPI), and Heavy Metal Contamination Index (HCI), in groundwater used for drinking purposes. The focus is on metals such as Pb, Hg, Cd, As, Cr, Fe, Al, Zn, Mn, and cyanide contamination.

Results indicate that arsenic, iron, and aluminum concentrations at several sites far exceed international water quality standards, likely due to natural geochemical processes and mining activities. The concentration of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) were generally high, with enrichment factors EF > 1 at the majority of sampled sites. Pollution indices show HPI < 100 and HCI < 50 for over 85% of sampled sites, indicating mild contamination. However, cyanide levels in cyanidation ponds exceeded safe limits by over 5900 times, highlighting critical environmental and health risks.

These findings underscore the importance of monitoring heavy metals, particularly cyanide, in the groundwater of the Hiré zone. Special attention should be given to unregulated artisanal mining and its constant relocation, which can expand the area of contamination. Ultimately, these findings contribute to the development of mitigation strategies and inform policymaking to address water pollution challenges in mining regions globally.

How to cite: Traore Dosso, A., Marc Dufour, R., Kouamé, J. K., and Chèvre, N.: Impact of Mining Activities on Water Contamination by Heavy Metals and Cyanide in the Hiré Region, Ivory Coast, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17362, 2025.

EGU25-17782 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Field patterns as game changers of the sediment connectivity 

Matthieu Herpoel, Adrien Michez, and Aurore Degré

In Northwestern Europe, sediment transport from agricultural fields to rivers has significant off-site impacts, influenced by connectivity between landscape elements. Sediment connectivity, assessed  using the index of connectivity (IC) developed by Borselli et al. (2008), is shaped by landscape configuration, including features like field boundaries that divide land parcels. Effective management requires understanding these interactions to mitigate soil erosion. IC depends on factors enhancing (upstream area and slope) or impeding (downstream distance and impedance) connectivity, with impedance estimation being particularly challenging to quantify due to vegetation effects. One such effect is the alternation of crops along slopes, a practice known as strip cropping, which is widely recognised in the literature as an effective strategy to reduce connectivity and improve soil conservation. This study proposes refining the IC weighting factor by incorporating parcel connectivity, thereby better reflecting the impact of agricultural landscape fragmentation. We focused on the Dyle sub-catchment in Belgium, where the organisation of agricultural parcels is suboptimal, with 40% of crop sequences along concentrated flow paths  consisting of crops from the same category (e.g., spring crops or winter cereals). We applied the revised IC using high-resolution data (1 m × 1 m) to compare different parcel fragmentation scenarios. Fragmented landscapes yield lower connectivity values, indicating greater sediment disconnection. This is especially pronounced along concentrated flow paths, where up to 49% of the least connected flow paths are disconnected compared to non-fragmented setups. Isoline-based parcel fragmentation emerged as highly effective, promoting larger parcel sizes and better disconnection on concentrated flow paths. These results emphasize the opportunities for improved management of agricultural landscapes in order to reduce sediment connectivity through appropriate land use practices and parcel configurations.

How to cite: Herpoel, M., Michez, A., and Degré, A.: Field patterns as game changers of the sediment connectivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17782, 2025.

EGU25-18960 | ECS | PICO | HS9.6

Temporal and spatial challenges in the in situ monitoring of suspended sediment and element concentrations in rivers 

Renee van Dongen-Köster, Julia Arndt, Nadine Belkouteb, Henning Schroeder, Aron Slabon, Simon Terweh, Stephan Dietrich, Lars Duester, and Thomas Hoffmann

Suspended sediment and the associated sediment-bound elements play a crucial role in the geomorphic, chemical and ecological status of a river. Representative in situ sampling of these suspended solids has shown to be complex, because the concentrations vary strongly over time and across the river cross-section. This leads to large uncertainties in suspended sediment and element load calculations in rivers.

This contribution summarizes the findings of the URSACHEN project which ran between 2020 and 2024 at the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG). The project analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of suspended sediment and element concentrations in rivers and derived the consequences for representative in situ river monitoring. The project included case studies along the German part of the Rhine at three focus sites (Koblenz, Brohl-Lützing, Emmerich) under different flow conditions (low, middle and high discharge), as well as studies based on existing monitoring data from the river monitoring network of the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) and data from the Global Water Quality Database GEMStat.

In this PICO, we will present a method that allows to determine the required sampling interval for a river segment, in order to determine the annual suspended sediment load with an uncertainty of <20%. Results from a global study highlight the type of river catchments in which higher sampling intervals are required and others where infrequent sampling is sufficient. Furthermore, we will highlight the importance if amalgamated in situ sampling, to reduce the uncertainty introduced by short-term, turbulence-driven temporal variability.

To analyze the spatial variability of suspended solids in the Rhine river cross-section, a new in situ sampling method was developed, which enables the simultaneous in situ sampling of five samples in a depth-gradient. The collected samples were analyzed on suspended sediment concentrations and the concentrations of 67 different chemical elements. The data from the conducted sampling campaigns, as well as the existing data from the WSV monitoring network, show strong lateral and depth gradients in suspended sediment and element concentrations across the river cross-section. Collecting water samples from the water surface and near the riverbank can lead to an underestimation of the annual sediment and element loads of up to 30%.

Overall, the URSACHEN project has significantly improved the understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of suspended sediment and element concentrations in rivers. The project provided important insights and recommendations for in-situ water monitoring and river management worldwide.

How to cite: van Dongen-Köster, R., Arndt, J., Belkouteb, N., Schroeder, H., Slabon, A., Terweh, S., Dietrich, S., Duester, L., and Hoffmann, T.: Temporal and spatial challenges in the in situ monitoring of suspended sediment and element concentrations in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18960, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18960, 2025.

EGU25-20481 | PICO | HS9.6

Emissions Ceased, Problems Persist – The Case of the Copper-Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula) 

Alexander Sokolov, Natalia Gashkina, Tatyana Moiseenko, and Anton Sokolov

The aim of this study is to develop models for analyzing the dynamics of copper and nickel pollution in small lakes within the influence zone of the Pechenga Nickel Plant (up to 100 km) in the past, present, and future (without emissions).

The research focuses on modeling the dynamics of nickel and copper concentrations in water, soil, and lake sediments caused by atmospheric emissions from the Pechenga Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula) from 1946 to 2050. The model is built upon heterogeneous data collected during over 30 years of research on pollution effects in the Kola Peninsula. Until recently (2020), the data reflected the state of lakes, rivers, soils, and sediments under significant atmospheric emissions of pollutants. New data, collected in 2023 under drastically reduced emissions, allowed refinement of several parameters and modifications to the model to describe a new phenomenon—the recovery of the region's natural environment.

The use of balanced identification techniques enabled the selection of a model of appropriate complexity for the available heterogeneous dataset (over 10 sources), the identification of unknown parameters (both numerical and functional), and the generation of results. The specialized software employed in this study (available at https://github.com/distcomp/SvF) includes examples of various problem-solving scenarios (https://github.com/distcomp/SvF/tree/main/Examples). The programs and corresponding databases used in this work can also be found in the repository.

The developed model matches the complexity of the experimental data and reflects the new reality—a slow recovery of ecosystems under drastically reduced emissions. The obtained forecast is reliable: under the scenario of zero emissions, water concentrations are determined by the release (transition to soluble forms) of Ni and Cu from reserves in the soil and sediments. This process is very slow, resulting in a noticeable reduction in water concentrations on the one hand, but precluding hopes for rapid further improvement on the other. The estimated "half-leaching" period (analogous to "half-life") of these reserves is on the order of several hundred years.

Keywords: atmospheric transport, pollution transformation, nickel, copper, subarctic aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, mathematical modeling, balanced identification, forecasting

 

How to cite: Sokolov, A., Gashkina, N., Moiseenko, T., and Sokolov, A.: Emissions Ceased, Problems Persist – The Case of the Copper-Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20481, 2025.

HS10 – Ecohydrology and Limnology

EGU25-2654 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Disentangling Ecological Restoration's Impact on Terrestrial Water Storage 

Xiaofan Shen and Xiaoxu Jia

Large-scale ecological restoration (ER) in semiarid regions is often associated with substantial terrestrial water storage (TWS) depletion. This study challenged previous estimates by demonstrating the critical importance of considering other human activities when assessing ER impacts on TWS. Using a novel analytical framework integrating GRACE satellite data and ground observations, we analyzed TWS changes in China’s Mu Us Sandyland under two scenarios: with and without considering mining and farming activities. Our results show that ER consumed TWS at an average rate of 11.7 ± 12.2 mm yr-1 from 2003 to 2022. Neglecting the impacts of mining and farming led to a 251% overestimation of ER's effect on TWS. This study provided a more nuanced understanding of water resource dynamics in restored ecosystems, emphasizing the need for comprehensive approaches in TWS assessments and informing sustainable land management strategies globally.

How to cite: Shen, X. and Jia, X.: Disentangling Ecological Restoration's Impact on Terrestrial Water Storage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2654, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2654, 2025.

The global climate and environment are undergoing rapid changes, impacting hydrological processes through shifts in climate patterns, escalating CO2, and vegetation dynamics. Accurately predicting and quantifying the contribution of these factors to water yield (WY) has become a significant challenge in water resource management and climate adaptation studies. This study proposed an improved WY attribution analysis framework to address the impacts of climate change, vegetation structural change, and CO2-induced physiological change on WY in China. During the study period (1982-2017), changes in climate, vegetation, and CO2 concentrations significantly affected WY, with the magnitude of these impacts varying across different regions. Climate change (especially precipitation change) was found to be the primary driver of WY changes, particularly in the Northwest River Basin, the Southwest River Basin, and parts of the Yangtze River Basin, the Southeast River Basin, and the Pearl River Basin. The vegetation change, including the land cover change and the NDVI change, was the second largest factor influencing WY, especially in central China, where vegetation changes led to a general decrease in runoff. Although the increase in CO2 concentration reduced transpiration by inducing stomatal closure, the effect was relatively small. And it resulted in an overall increase in runoff across China. This study provides important theoretical support for water resource management and offers new perspectives for climate change adaptation strategies, vegetation restoration, and water resource management.

How to cite: Shen, H. and Yang, H.: Enhanced understanding of dominant drivers of Water Yield change across China through the improved attribution analysis framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3060, 2025.

EGU25-3655 | Posters on site | HS10.1

The partitioning of throughfall under urban tree canopies: a case study for birch (Betula pendula Roth.) and pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) 

Mojca Šraj, Nejc Bezak, Lana Radulović, and Mark Bryan Alivio

Throughfall is a critical component of the hydrological cycle, representing the majority of precipitation that reaches the ground contributing to soil water fluxes under vegetation canopies. It occurs through several mechanisms: as free throughfall (FR), splash throughfall, and canopy drip (CD) (Levia et al., 2019). Important progress has been made in investigating throughfall dynamics and drop size distribution (DSD) using disdrometers to understand the sub-canopy hydrologic and erosional processes. In the present study, we seek to quantify the relative proportions of throughfall components beneath isolated birch and pine trees using drop size data from OTT Parsivel disdrometers. Simultaneous measurements of drop size data for open rainfall and throughfall were conducted from July 2022 to July 2024 at an experimental urban park in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The partitioning of throughfall drops into FR, SP, and CD was carried out according to the protocol outlined by Levia et al. (2019). Analysis of drop counts indicates that throughfall drops originating from CD represent a significantly smaller fraction (<2-7%) of the total throughfall drop number compared to SP (60-69%) and FR (20-30%) for both tree species regardless of phenoseasons. However, in terms of drop volume, CD has the largest proportion for birch trees during the leafed period (40%) and for pine trees during both periods (70%). Due to the deciduous nature of birch trees, FR accounts for the largest volume percentage (42%) during the leafless period. Whereas the higher CD in pine trees is hypothesized to be attributed to the needle structures and waxy coating, which facilitates lateral flow of water that can lead to the formation of larger drops as smaller droplets coalesce before dripping to the ground. While the SP constitutes the largest proportion of the throughfall drop number, it represents a smaller percentage of throughfall volume due to its smaller drop diameters. The impact of larger drops hitting the foliage generates splash droplets, particularly during intense rainfall events and strong winds. This observation is reflected in the DSD of throughfall as the relative volume of drops >3.0 mm is higher under both trees than those in open rainfall across phenoseasons. The median drop diameter (D50) of throughfall is on average higher than the open rainfall, except for the leafless birch tree. Our study shed further insights into the rainfall partitioning process and serves as an initial step toward linking different types of TF inputs to water-mediated processes below the canopy. For instance, do areas with higher water inputs from CD exhibit variable and higher soil moisture? This may help improve our understanding of forest/tree canopy–water interactions.

Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the P2-0180 research program through the Ph.D. grant to the first author, which is financially supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (ARIS). Moreover, this study was also carried out within the scope of the ongoing research projects J6-4628, J2-4489, and N2-0313 supported by the ARIS and SpongeScapes project (Grant Agreement ID No. 101112738), which is supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme.

How to cite: Šraj, M., Bezak, N., Radulović, L., and Alivio, M. B.: The partitioning of throughfall under urban tree canopies: a case study for birch (Betula pendula Roth.) and pine (Pinus nigra Arnold), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3655, 2025.

Forests are essential regulators of water, energy, and carbon cycles, emphasizing the need for sustainable forest management under changing climate conditions. Forest management practices, including regeneration and structural changes, impact species composition and densities which have feedback effects on the water balance, partitioning into blue and green water fluxes, and the ecohydrological resilience of these ecosystems. Quantifying and understanding these impacts is critical for maintaining water availability, sustaining livelihoods, and reducing disaster risks, especially in drought-prone regions. This study investigates blue and green water partitioning and its implications for ecosystem resilience under generic forest management scenarios using modelling experiments. These explore variations in forest density, tree species composition (e.g., deciduous, coniferous, agroforestry), and root distribution. Using the tracer-aided conceptual ecohydrology model Ecoplot, baseline simulations (2000–2024) were conducted in the drought-sensitive Demnitzer Millcreek catchment, Germany. The model was calibrated and validated with seven years of soil moisture data and three years of soil water isotope data using a multi-criteria approach. Results showed that coniferous forests transpire more water than deciduous forests and agroforestry stands, while mixed forests enhance ecosystem resilience during droughts by increasing blue water fluxes. Significant differences in water partitioning between dry and wet years were observed across contrasting management scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mixed forests in mitigating drought impacts and offer a framework for quantifying, visualizing and communicating the implications of land use changes on water availability. These insights are critical for informed decision-making and stakeholder engagement, highlighting the need for integrated strategies to improve forest resilience and ensure sustainable water resource management.

How to cite: Jiang, C., Tetzlaff, D., Wu, S., and Soulsby, C.: Effects of Forest Management Scenarios on Water Partitioning and Ecosystem Resilience: Insights from Long-Term Tracer-Aided Ecohydrological Modelling in a Drought-Sensitive Lowland Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3760, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3760, 2025.

EGU25-4675 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Analysis of the cumulative impact of vegetation dynamics on water cycle processes in semiarid basin under climate change 

Libo Wang, Guoqiang Wang, Baolin Xue, Yinglan Aa, Yuntao Wang, and Jin Wu

The ecological environment of semiarid regions is fragile, and localized vegetation restoration is close to the sustainable development limit of regional water resources, presenting new ecological-water resource conflicts. To study the influence of vegetation dynamics on the water cycle process in semiarid regions affected by climate change, this study constructed a random forest model based on long-term field observation data, used high-resolution remote sensing images as input data, extracted the zoning of vegetation types, and analyzed the pattern of vegetation succession. The results of zoning were then introduced into BTOP (block-wise use of TOPMODEL and the Muskingum-Cunge method) to obtain continuous spatial and temporal hydrological data, and the long-term cumulative effect of vegetation dynamics on key water cycle elements in the watersheds was revealed on the basis of analyzing the changes in the state of the vegetation and the factors affecting it. It was found that the vegetation cover in the Hailar River Basin, which is located in the semiarid zone, showed a fluctuating trend in the last 5 years of the 21st century, and the growth curve began to decline, which may be related to the contradiction between the current status of the basin's water resources and the growth of vegetation; specifically, the existing vegetation cover may have exceeded the critical point of the basin's balanced development in terms of vegetation and hydrology. Under the multiyear average precipitation conditions, the evapotranspiration before and after the change in vegetation in the basin increased by 15.6%, the surface stream-flow decreased by 20.9%, and the base flow decreased by 12.3%. Additionally, the vegetation cover and the type of succession increased the water consumption of the vegetation in the basin to a certain extent and reduced the runoff in the basin. However, the current 21.9% decrease in precipitation and the 20.3% depletion of vegetation are critical. If vegetation continues to expand, water consumption in the watershed will increase without limits, reduce surface runoff and groundwater recharge, weaken soil water storage capacity, and lead to more drought in arid areas. Therefore, as an important means of regional ecological restoration, it is still necessary to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the existing water resources of the watershed and set the upper limit of water demand for vegetation in the vegetation restoration project to restore the ecological health of the watershed under the condition of normal vegetation growth and to ensure the sustainable development of the watershed's water resources.

How to cite: Wang, L., Wang, G., Xue, B., Aa, Y., Wang, Y., and Wu, J.: Analysis of the cumulative impact of vegetation dynamics on water cycle processes in semiarid basin under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4675, 2025.

EGU25-7904 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Development of a process-based distributed water-carbon coupling model integrating terrestrial and aquatic systems in permafrost region 

Li Leifang, Wang Taihua, Yang Jingjing, Yang Haiyan, and Yang Dawen

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), also known as the Asian water tower, becomes warmer and wetter in recent decades. This has led to drastic permafrost degradation, increased soil erosion and higher greenhouse gas emissions from water bodies, profoundly altering the regional carbon cycle. With continued climate change, there are ongoing debates on whether the TP will undergo a transformation from a carbon sink to a source. Currently, the magnitudes of carbon fluxes transferring from terrestrial to aquatic systems are highly uncertain due to the unique hydrothermal conditions of permafrost region. This uncertainty arises because very few studies have comprehensively quantified the full range of carbon fluxes, including vertical carbon fixation, respiration and lateral carbon transport in different forms, i.e., DOC, POC and DIC. Here, we develop a process-based distributed water-carbon coupling model (GBEHM-C) applicable for permafrost region, which integrates the vertical water-heat-carbon fluxes between atmosphere, vegetation and soil, the lateral water-carbon fluxes transported from hillslopes to the river channels, as well as the water-carbon dynamics in river networks along the river routing process. The model is then applied in the Yellow River Source Area (YRSA) in the northeastern TP which helps quantify the net ecosystem carbon budget (NECB) at the catchment scale. According to the simulation results, the NECB of the YRSA was 4.27 Tg C/yr on average, and showed an increasing trend during 1960-2019. The lateral carbon fluxes accounted for 16.8% of the NECB and should not be overlooked. It’s also found that the alpine steppe ecosystem performs as a net carbon source in the YRSA. The future risk of carbon source-sink transformation mainly depends on the net carbon fixation by vegetation, carbon release from permafrost, and the intensity of lateral carbon transport driven by hydrological processes. Our study provides critical insights into the dynamics of water and carbon fluxes in the TP and offers valuable guidance for water resource and ecological management in alpine river systems.

How to cite: Leifang, L., Taihua, W., Jingjing, Y., Haiyan, Y., and Dawen, Y.: Development of a process-based distributed water-carbon coupling model integrating terrestrial and aquatic systems in permafrost region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7904, 2025.

The interaction between hydrological and biogeochemical processes, combined with the variability across diverse vegetation ecosystems, presents significant challenges in developing mathematical models for water and carbon exchanges. As a result, research on carbon sink calculations specific to watersheds remains limited. This study aims to address this gap by exploring the link between hydrological and carbon cycles within a watershed using the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA). Focusing on the Lanyang River in Yilan, Taiwan, the research simulates hydrological changes during rainfall events, analyzing key parameters such as water depth, flow, and evaporation to gain insights into the river's hydrological cycle. By linking hydrological and carbon cycles, this research aims to provide insights into carbon dioxide emissions from watersheds. The findings could be applied to inform policy development for reducing watershed-based carbon emissions and enhancing carbon sink potential.

How to cite: Liao, T.-Y. and You, J.-Y.: Coupling Hydrological Modeling with Carbon Flux Calculations: A GSSHA-Based Approach for Evaluating Carbon Emissions in Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7974, 2025.

EGU25-8274 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Study on ecological water demand in mangrove ecosystem utilizing salinity as a key habitat indicator 

Xuefeng Chen, Ruifeng Liang, Yuanming Wang, and Kefeng Li

Mangroves are one of the vital ecological environments along tropical coasts, serving not only as natural barriers against tides and protecting shorelines but also as ideal habitats for the reproduction and habitation of aquatic life. Additionally, mangroves themselves hold substantial economic and medicinal value. However, the construction and operation of upstream hydraulic engineering projects at river estuaries have altered the hydrological characteristics downstream of the dam. These changes impact the freshwater area, salinity, distance of salty tides upstream, and sediment distribution at the estuary, significantly affecting the growth and reproduction of regional mangrove forests. This study focuses on the Xin’ying Bay estuary in the Beimen River of China, utilizing a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity diffusion mathematical model to investigate the effects of varying discharge rates on distance of salty tides upstream, freshwater area, and the maximum salinity of the cross section. The study selects Rhizophora stylosa Griff and Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh as key species within the estuarine mangrove ecosystem, using salinity as a critical ecological factor to establish the relationship between salinity and flow in typical sections, thereby constructing a research system for optimal ecological water requirements for mangrove ecosystems. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the distance of salty tides upstream, the maximum salinity of the section and the discharge flow, while there is a positive correlation between the area of the freshwater area and the discharge flow. A discharge rate of 1.86 m3/s (20% of the multi-year average flow at the dam site) in July and 3.25 m3/s (35% of the multi-year average flow) in August and September can meet the salinity requirements necessary for the maturation of embryos and growth of seedlings in Rhizophora stylosa Griff and Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh. This study establishes a comprehensive system for studying mangrove ecosystems and their ecological water requirements, achieving the goals of ecological protection and quantifiable, manageable environmental water needs. The findings also provide new perspectives and significant references for understanding and protecting mangrove ecosystems.

How to cite: Chen, X., Liang, R., Wang, Y., and Li, K.: Study on ecological water demand in mangrove ecosystem utilizing salinity as a key habitat indicator, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8274, 2025.

EGU25-8704 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Swimming performance of fish in TDG supersaturated water 

Hongtao Wang, Yuanming Wang, Kefeng Li, and Ruifeng Liang

High dams have brought significant benefits but have also led to reduced river connectivity and aquatic habitat fragmentation, negatively affecting fish activities such as migration, spawning, and foraging. Additionally, total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturation caused by dam discharge presents a further ecological challenge, making fish highly susceptible to gas bubble trauma (GBT), which can disrupt normal behavior and even result in mortality. Consequently, fish are subjected to the dual threats of dam barriers and TDG supersaturation. While fish passage facilities can partially mitigate the barrier effect, the swimming performance of fish in TDG supersaturation exposure is critical for successful passage. This study employed a swimming tunnel respirometer (Loligo Systems SW10150, Denmark) to investigate the critical swimming speed (Ucrit) and endurance of juvenile Myxocyprinus asiaticus and Procypris rabaudi in TDG supersaturated water. The results from one-way ANOVA revealed that the Ucrit of M. asiaticus significantly decreased to 76% and 60% of the control group (12.31 BL/s) at 140% and 150% TDG levels, respectively. P. rabaudi showed even weaker tolerance to TDG supersaturation exposure, with significant reductions in Ucrit at 130%, 140%, and 150% TDG levels, corresponding to 81%, 71%, and 51% of the control group (13.63 BL/s), respectively. Both species were able to swim for at least 200 minutes at velocities of 0.6 - 0.8 Ucrit at TDG levels below 130% and showed significantly reduced endurance at TDG levels of 140% or higher. A significant decline in sustained swimming distance was observed at 130% or higher TDG levels. The swimming distance of fish decreased by at least 12% compared to the control group, with the reduction reaching 86% at 150% TDG level. It is indicated that a TDG level of 130% represents a critical threshold for fish survival. This study provides valuable insights into the behavioral responses of fish to TDG supersaturation exposure. The finding is crucial for understanding the impacts of TDG supersaturation on fish and for informing strategies aimed at mitigating the ecological risk associated with dam operations. Furthermore, this study offers vital support for the development of effective fish passage solutions.

How to cite: Wang, H., Wang, Y., Li, K., and Liang, R.: Swimming performance of fish in TDG supersaturated water, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8704, 2025.

EGU25-8898 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity using hyper resolution hydrologic modelling 

Jennie C. Steyaert, Marc F. P. Bierkens, Edward R. Jones, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jaime Ricardo Garcia Marquez, Sami Domisch, and Niko Wanders

There are a multitude of studies that look at the impact of changes in streamflow and water quality on aquatic biodiversity both regionally and globally. However, few studies have considered the direct effects of hydrological alterations on biodiversity at high spatial resolution. This is due to the fact that only a limited number of hydrological models can produce relevant information for assessing ecological impacts at the relevant spatial resolution. One approach for such ecological assessments builds upon species distribution models (SDMs).  Studies that usually couple the hydrologic and (SDMs) typically employ hydrologic models on a 10km spatial resolution or coarser. Using the Rhine basin as a case study, we link two hyper resolution models (models at a 1km spatial resolution) for hydrology (PCRGLOBWB2) and species distribution (Random Forest) to i) develop a framework for evaluating climate impacts on biodiversity, and ii) assess the suitability of current and future freshwater habitats for fish species. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for identifying the historic biodiversity values for the Rhine and for developing indicators to monitor changes in aquatic biodiversity.

How to cite: Steyaert, J. C., Bierkens, M. F. P., Jones, E. R., Sutanudjaja, E. H., Marquez, J. R. G., Domisch, S., and Wanders, N.: Evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity using hyper resolution hydrologic modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8898, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8898, 2025.

EGU25-8930 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

How vegetation alters the properties of raindrops 

Katarina Zabret, Mark Bryan Alivio, Lana Radulović, Juraj Parajka, Borbala Szeles, Dušan Marjanović, Urša Vilhar, Janez Pavčič, and Mojca Šraj

The process of rainfall interception is an important part of the hydrological cycle in many regions. The rainfall which is intercepted by vegetation evaporates into the atmosphere, while throughfall and stemflow contribute to runoff generation, control soil moisture and affect soil erosion. These topics are closely connected to the aims of the ongoing bilateral research project between University of Ljubljana, Slovenian Forestry Institute and TU Wien. The project focuses on the understanding of the effect of meteorological and vegetation characteristics on changes in raindrop microstructure. The rain drop diameter and velocity of raindrops under vegetation, which reach the ground by dripping from leaves and branches as throughfall, are different than diameter and velocity of rain drops above the canopy.

The research is based on the high-resolution disdrometer measurements of open rainfall and throughfall. Measurements are ongoing on three different study sites, including single urban trees and urban mixed forest in Slovenia, as well as maize field in a small agricultural basin (HOAL) in Austria. Collected data are used to determine and compare raindrop distributions and their changes under the vegetation. For each study site the single rain events were selected based on similar properties (i.e. rainfall amount, duration or intensity). The event-based analysis taking into account 5-minute time step was used to determine how different vegetation types influence changes in rain drop size and velocity of throughfall drops in comparison to open raindrops.

Acknowledgment: This contribution is part of the ongoing research project entitled “Evaluation of the impact of rainfall interception on soil erosion” supported by the Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency (J2-4489) and the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) I 6254-N.

How to cite: Zabret, K., Alivio, M. B., Radulović, L., Parajka, J., Szeles, B., Marjanović, D., Vilhar, U., Pavčič, J., and Šraj, M.: How vegetation alters the properties of raindrops, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8930, 2025.

EGU25-9875 | Orals | HS10.1

Linking catchment transit time heterogeneity with fluvial metabolism to unravel carbon cycling in an alpine stream network 

Giulia Grandi, Francesco Presotto, Mirco Peschiutta, Nicola Durighetto, Mauro Masiol, Barbara Stenni, Gianluca Botter, and Enrico Bertuzzo

Freshwater systems such as rivers, streams, and groundwater are critical for the ecosystem functioning, as they shape the fate of solutes in terrestrial environments. Runoff and leaching waters drain superficial and deep soil layers, vegetation, and rock weathering zones, transferring nutrients and other compounds to downstream ecosystems and eventually to oceans. Freshwaters also facilitate chemical reactions, such as ion exchange, mineral precipitation, and biological uptake, which dictate solute concentrations and forms during transport. The transport of nutrients and other solutes is crucial to the productivity and health of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. For example, the delivery of organic carbon supports the dynamics of the microbial and food web, while transport of metals and pollutants impacts water quality, affecting drinking water sources, aquatic life, and ecosystem services. Catchment hydrologic response and connectivity must be carefully untangled in order to characterize fluvial and aquatic metabolism and the fluxes of exchange between soil, water, and the atmosphere. 

Our research focuses on the Rio Valfredda, a pristine mountain stream network draining a 5.3 km2 catchment in the Italian Alps, with the ultimate goal of linking carbon (C) cycling patterns with hydrologic traits. To that end, extensive data acquisition and field campaigns have been carried out since November 2023. Activities include the measurement of dissolved oxygen (DO) and C dioxide (CO2), along with environmental ancillary variables such as photosynthetic active radiation, temperature, barometric pressure, pH, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic C (DIC) and electrical conductivity, in different reaches. Water stable isotopes  (δ18O and δ2H) are also being monitored in several springs and tributaries of the stream network, at the catchment outlet, and in the precipitation at three different altitude rain gauges.

By comparing the isotopic signatures of water in precipitation and streamflow, we develop a modeling framework to reconstruct the spatial variation in water transit time distribution (TTD) across multiple Valfredda sub-catchments. Variations in TTD across catchment springs, tributaries, and the outlet reveal the spatial heterogeneity of hydrologic connectivity and act as indicators of lateral inputs to the stream. TTD results are thus compared  with the available environmental data collected within the Valfredda network to unravel sub-catchment transport dynamics and their effect on the C exchange fluxes in the critical zone. We focus specifically on the spatial variation of DIC, connecting its behavior to the proportion of young water mobilized within the system, proving the age of mobilized water serves as a proxy for the transfer of DIC from green to blue ecosystems.

We believe our approach marks a significant advancement in understanding freshwater solute transport and the coupling dynamics of water and C cycling at the catchment scale and can ultimately support resource management and pollution mitigation efforts, contributing to the long-term sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Grandi, G., Presotto, F., Peschiutta, M., Durighetto, N., Masiol, M., Stenni, B., Botter, G., and Bertuzzo, E.: Linking catchment transit time heterogeneity with fluvial metabolism to unravel carbon cycling in an alpine stream network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9875, 2025.

EGU25-10197 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Influence of Time Step on Fish Critical Swimming Speed  

Kumar Daksh, Gopi Chand Malasani, Venu Chandra, and Castro-Santos Theodore

Critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of fish is a fundamental metric for evaluating fish swimming performance. It provides an estimate of the maximum aerobic swimming speed of a fish, and is widely used to inform fish passage design, and habitat assessment. Ucrit is typically determined using a respirometer test through incremental velocity tests where flow velocity increases periodically until fish gets fatigue. In incremental tests, the choice of time step, Δt is critical and varies significantly across studies, ranging from 15 to 200 minutes. This study investigates the influence of Δt on Ucrit for a Labeo rohita (a species of carp in the family Cyprinidae, native to south Asia). In this study, Δt = 15, 30, and 60 minutes are considered. Juvenile Labeo rohita (body length: 6.8–12 cm, weight: 15–30 g) were tested in a custom-built 10L respirometer at IIT Madras, India.

Ucrit values in incremental velocity tests were 4.58 ± 0.18 BL/s, 4.21 ± 0.13 BL/s, and 3.72 ± 0.10 BL/s at Δt = 15, 30, and 60 minutes respectively. Additionally, fixed velocity tests conducted at flow velocity of 4.5 BL/s and 3.5 BL/s (< Ucrit), showed that fatigue times (30 and 80 minutes) exceeding the predicted maxima based on Ucrit (15 and 60 minutes). These findings suggest that Ucrit is sensitive to the chosen time step and further experiments with varying Δt could be used to determine optimal value. This will enhance understanding of the trade-offs between shortening time steps and biological interpretation of results.

Keywords:  Critical swimming speed, respirometry, time step, incremental velocity, fixed velocity Labeo rohita

How to cite: Daksh, K., Malasani, G. C., Chandra, V., and Theodore, C.-S.: Influence of Time Step on Fish Critical Swimming Speed , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10197, 2025.

EGU25-10334 | Orals | HS10.1 | Highlight

Consolidating ecohydrological modelling advances to translate science into action 

Athanasios Paschalis, Ziyan Zhang, Jordi Buckley, Ruiqi Gu, Gregory Jones, Jojo Yan, and Maryam Sadat Maddah Sadatieh

Ecohydrological models have progressively advanced in complexity by incorporating the latest knowledge from hydrology, ecology, and related disciplines. Recent developments include coupling hydrological processes with detailed dynamic vegetation responses to environmental cues, soil biogeochemical dynamics, and the integration of human activities. These activities range from the management of forests and croplands to the operation of built infrastructure such as reservoirs. Advancements in mechanistic approaches offer significant opportunities to translate fundamental knowledge into actionable strategies for a sustainable future, encompassing infrastructure planning and resilient water resource management. However barriers in their implementation include lack of a unified computational framework and lack of data to support the development of such a framework.

In this study, we present a unified computational framework demonstrating how ecohydrological modeling can inform the design of a sustainable future. Our applications address key areas such as forest and cropland management, sustainable agriculture, climate-resilient infrastructure, and sustainable water resource management. Specifically, we introduce multiple new mechanistic hydrological, plant physiological, and infrastructure processes into the ecohydrological and ecosystem model T&C. We also address challenges related to model application in data-scarce contexts and propose a roadmap for leveraging mechanistic ecohydrological modeling to develop actionable design principles for achieving a sustainable, net-zero future.

How to cite: Paschalis, A., Zhang, Z., Buckley, J., Gu, R., Jones, G., Yan, J., and Maddah Sadatieh, M. S.: Consolidating ecohydrological modelling advances to translate science into action, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10334, 2025.

Turbulence velocity, water vapor concentration, and temperature fluctuations above a Mediterranean forested canopy from a 2-year experiment whereby variability in mean wind direction interrogates different levels of topographic complexity are analysed and reported.  The overarching goal was to explore how the velocity and scalar statistics are impacted by terrain variability and what are the consequences of such terrain variability on similarity arguments and the energy balance closure (EBc). 

The data were first separated by different wind sectors and analysed for near-neutral conditions.  It was found that the down-slope effective momentum roughness length was smaller than its up-slope counterpart. However, the normalized relation between vertical velocity standard deviation (σw) and friction velocity (u*) was insensitive to the mean wind direction (i.e. σw/u*=Aw - a constant around 1.1-1.2).  The heat flux similarity relations were investigated in two ways: the first uses a conventional flux-variance form whereby the turbulent vertical heat flux <w'T'> was related to u* and temperature standard deviation (σT) using a similarity coefficient (i.e. <w'T'>=C1σT u*). The second evaluates the much less studied relation between the horizontal heat flux <u'T'> and <w'T'> (i.e. <u'T'>=-C2<w'T'>), where C2 was previously reported to vary between 2 and 4 for 'flat-world' near-neutral conditions.  The findings suggest that C1 was close to expectations from flat-world studies but C2 was smaller in magnitude yet independent of mean wind direction. 

When repeating the same analysis for water vapor concentration fluctuations, similarity theory failed on both accounts for almost all mean wind directions.  In fact, for some wind direction sectors, including the upwind sector, no relation between <u'q'> and <w'q'> was found.  Next, EBc was considered.  In this analysis, soil heat flux (Gs) was not measured due to the high rock content at the site. Using literature values, it was assumed that Gs was about 15% of the measured net radiation (Rn).  The EBc did not exhibit appreciable sensitivity to mean wind direction, with sensible and latent heat flux explaining some 80-85% of Rn-Gs across different mean wind directions. 

Guided by recent findings about a connection between the anisotropy in the Reynolds stress tensor and deviations in flux-variance similarity relations, the EBc was re-examined using the anisotropy classification of a barycentric map (isotropic, two-component axisymmetric and one-component turbulence) and the conventional invariance map (or its transformed version to underscore nonlinearities in the return to isotropy in the pressure-strain interaction).   While the down-slope runs were dominated by one-component and isotropic cases, the upslope runs were dominated by two-component axisymmetric cases. For near isotropic cases, the EBc was improved but not significantly.  Other measures that seek to delineate the nonlinearities in the return to isotropy and deviations from isotropic cases were also considered. 
Future work seeks to expand this analysis for diabatic conditions to assess the role of thermal stratification and topography simultaneously on similarity theory, EBc, and invariance analysis of the turbulent stress tensor.  Moreover, the flux variance similarity relation as well as the relations between longitudinal and vertical CO2 fluxes will also be considered.

How to cite: Sirigu, S., Katul, G., Montaldo, N., and Corona, R.: Biosphere-atmosphere water vapor and heat fluxes from a forested ecosystem situated on complex terrain: Similarity,  anisotropy, and the energy balance closure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11497, 2025.

EGU25-12213 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Ecohydrological Modelling and Performance Evaluation of a Large-scale Land Surface over the Central Andes 

Ruiqi Gu, Wouter Buytaert, Ziyan Zhang, Rike Becker, and Athanasios Paschalis

Alpine mountain ecosystems in the tropical Andes are critical water sources for both human societies and natural systems. These regions store and gradually release water from glaciers, regulate runoff patterns, support irrigated agriculture, facilitate hydropower generation, and sustain delicate ecosystems. The catchments in the tropical Andes are characterized by complex mountainous topography, diverse climates, and dynamic land-use changes. The rapid expansion of agriculture and urbanization has driven significant deforestation, followed by forest recovery efforts, which have substantially altered evapotranspiration patterns and runoff dynamics. In addition, climate change has accelerated glacier retreat and shifted precipitation patterns, causing profound impacts on hydrological processes and ecosystem dynamics. Despite these significant changes in blue, green, and white water fluxes in the region, severe data limitations impede the understanding of regional ecohydrological cycles under the changing environment as well as the development of high-resolution eco-hydrological models. 

Our study addresses these gaps by employing innovative computational modelling alongside in-situ and remote sensing observations. We conducted hyper-resolution simulations of coupled water, energy, and carbon dynamics in the tropical Andes using the physics-based T&C model, which we parameterized with data from multiple sources. This approach allowed us to analyse the fate of blue, green, and white water fluxes under climate change scenarios. To streamline regional studies in terms of scalability and applicability, we developed automated input data preparation and model parameter generalization algorithms integrating machine learning and remote sensing methods for the physics-based model. This not only allows flexibility when composing catchment plant functional types (PFTs) but significantly speeds up the model setup process. Validation of the algorithm is through plot-scale simulations using PLUMBER2 sites and spatial scale simulations using CARAVAN catchments before expanding the simulations to larger extents in the tropical Andes.  

As a proof of concept, we applied our methodology to the Vilcanota catchment in Peru, a catchment around 9000 square kilometres. This catchment presents complex land uses ranging from glacial coverage above treeline, diverse natural vegetations and intricate crop rotation systems and an elevational span of 4,000 meters. 

How to cite: Gu, R., Buytaert, W., Zhang, Z., Becker, R., and Paschalis, A.: Ecohydrological Modelling and Performance Evaluation of a Large-scale Land Surface over the Central Andes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12213, 2025.

EGU25-12764 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Modeling the impact of mining on water quality and ecosystem in the boreal Lake Sulkavanjärvi, Finland 

Kseniia Kortunova, Eevi Kokkonen, Timo Huttula, and Mikko Kolehmainen

Mining activities near a lake can significantly impact its water quality and ecosystem. These impacts often arise from the release of heavy metals, sediments, and nutrients into the lake via surface runoff or groundwater seepage. Elevated levels of these substances can disrupt natural equilibrium, leading to problems such as acidification, eutrophication, and contamination of aquatic habitats. This study applies the AQUATOX model to assess the effects of mining on the water quality and ecosystem of a boreal lake. The research was carried out in a small humic boreal lake Sulkavanjärvi in the central part of Finland (63°06′50′′N, 27°41′30′′E) (area 3.1 km2, mean depth 3.7 m, max depth 17 m). It is located close to an open pit apatite (major source of phosphorus) mine from which surface runoff and groundwater discharge contamination is suspected. The model simulates key pollutants, including nutrients and sediments, while incorporating multiple trophic levels such as planktonic algae, invertebrates, and diverse fish species. The lake is covered by ice from November to April and ice cover condition was applied when the water temperature dropped below 3 °C. The water mass was allowed to stratify into epilimnion and hypolimnion at the 3 °C temperature difference. Modeled time series of food web compartment biomass were obtained and analyzed for the modeling period 01.01.2011 - 31.12.2021. The nutrient and oxygen dynamics were evaluated with an emphasis on forecasting the impact of various contamination scenarios on the local ecosystem.

How to cite: Kortunova, K., Kokkonen, E., Huttula, T., and Kolehmainen, M.: Modeling the impact of mining on water quality and ecosystem in the boreal Lake Sulkavanjärvi, Finland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12764, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12764, 2025.

EGU25-14696 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Enhanced impact of droughts on ecosystem functioning despite unchanged resilience under climate change 

Vijaykumar Bejagam and Ashutosh Sharma

Climate extremes, such as droughts associated with low soil water availability, significantly impact plant carbon uptake by reducing net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is crucial for regulating atmospheric CO2 and maintaining the carbon balance of an ecosystem. Given the increased frequency and intensity of droughts under climate change, it is important to assess the shifts in the ecosystem functioning to ecological droughts. Using the outputs from 6 Earth System Models, we analysed impacts of droughts on NPP over 21st century in India. We tested two hypotheses: first, that there will be an intensified reduction in NPP due to the increased frequency and intensity of droughts, and second, that there will be a decreased ecosystem resilience (greater NPP reduction per drought event) under warming climate. In this study, we used a multi-dimensional resilience index (MDRI) to quantify the response of ecosystems to droughts, which jointly considers the resistance and recovery time after the disturbance. Our results show a significant increase in extreme and moderate droughts over 21st century, while mild droughts remained stable. The NPP reduction during extreme droughts is projected to be three times greater under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and six times greater under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared with the baseline scenario. Due to longer recovery times and moderate resistance, the Western Ghats and lower Himalayan ecosystems exhibited low to moderate resilience. In contrast, high resistance and shorter recovery times resulted in very high resilience for the Northeastern regions. We found an increasing trend in the resistance, probably benefitting from carbon fertilisation, and decreasing trend in recovery rate, probably related to warming. Our findings do not support the second hypothesis, as we found no significant changes in ecosystem resilience due to trade-offs between resistance and recovery. This understanding can inform conservation strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate extremes on ecosystems that should be accounted in design of mitigation and adaptation plans.

How to cite: Bejagam, V. and Sharma, A.: Enhanced impact of droughts on ecosystem functioning despite unchanged resilience under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14696, 2025.

EGU25-15796 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Experimental Assessment of Optimal Stomatal Control under Drought and Heat Stress 

Pauline Seeburger and Stanislaus J. Schymanski

Stomata, small openings on leaves, are critical for regulating the exchange of water vapor (transpiration) and carbon dioxide (assimilation) with the atmosphere. Thus, stomata serve as a key interface between plant physiological processes and ecosystem water and carbon fluxes. The "optimal stomatal control" hypothesis suggests that stomatal behavior is optimized dynamically in a way to achieve maximum carbon uptake given limited water availability for transpiration between rainfall events. The theoretically optimal stomatal conductance follows a consistent slope λ between transpiration (E) and carbon assimilation (A), i.e. λ = ∂E/∂A.

Due to the inability to measure λ directly, the theory has only been tested by fitting leaf gas exchange measurements to models of photosynthesis and transpiration, with the frequent outcome of apparently strongly varying and inconsistent values of λ. However, it is unclear whether such results are due to model and measurement uncertainty or indeed contradict the theory of optimal stomatal control.

After developing an experimental approach to measure λ directly at the leaf scale, we investigate how far λ is consistent between leaves of the same plant or even between plants, under unstressed, single-stress, and combined stress of heat and drought conditions. By combining our measurements with classical leaf gas exchange modeling, we bridge the gap between experimental and theoretical studies of stomatal optimization. Additionally, we measure water use efficiency, photosynthetic capacity, and biomass to link stomatal control mechanisms to plant physiological functioning. Our results provide insights into how stomatal response to heat and drought stress influences water-carbon trade-offs at the leaf level. Scaling up leaf-level behavior to the ecosystem, e.g. with the help of terrestrial biosphere models, opens new possibilities for predicting water resource dynamics, optimizing water resource management in agricultural systems, and improving ecosystem management strategies. Assessment of stomatal control strategies of different plants can also enhance our ability to select heat- and drought-resilient crop varieties for a changing environment.

How to cite: Seeburger, P. and Schymanski, S. J.: Experimental Assessment of Optimal Stomatal Control under Drought and Heat Stress, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15796, 2025.

Understanding how environmental change drives compositional change in ecological communities is a central goal in ecology. Trait-based approaches have been useful in understanding how compositional change is mediated by the traits of a community’s members. However, in trait-based approaches, the link between community composition and function is often lost. Here, we derive a quantity – which we call the principal trait – linking the community weighted mean traits with principal components of community composition. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach with nearly five decades of phytoplankton monitoring data from Lake Constance. We find that the same tradeoff between the resource acquisition traits phosphate affinity and light affinity emerged during the summer bloom in response to long-term changes in nutrient status, but also in response to seasonal changes in light availability from winter to spring. We show that emergence of these tradeoffs was associated with two different compositional shifts, which depended on the requirement of the community to be defended against grazing.

How to cite: Pranger, A., Diehl, S., and Peeters, F.: The link between community composition and function is a useful tool in ecology – demonstration using five decades of phytoplankton data from Lake Constance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16415, 2025.

EGU25-17766 | ECS | Orals | HS10.1

Ditch Design and Ecological Outcomes: Investigating the Link Between Agricultural Drainage, Macroinvertebrates, and Water Quality in Sweden 

John Livsey, Maarten Wynants, Lukas Hallberg, and Magdalena Bieroza

Agricultural drainage systems are essential for managing water levels in farmland, yet they often prioritize conveyance efficiency over ecological function, contributing to biodiversity loss and water quality degradation. Remediation measures, such as two-stage ditches, re-meandering, and bank regrading, are typically aimed at reducing sediment and nutrient loads, but frequently neglect habitat complexity and biodiversity. This study investigates how these remediation practices influence macroinvertebrate communities in agricultural ditches across central and southern Sweden, highlighting novel insights on integrating ecological considerations into drainage system design. We evaluated ecological impacts across 18 paired sites, each consisting of an upstream conventional trapezoidal channel and a downstream remediated section. Water chemistry, sediments, and channel morphology were measured alongside macroinvertebrate sampling, while trait-based analyses were conducted to assess macroinvertebrates’ utility as bioindicators of water quality. Bayesian linear mixed-effects (BLM) models were used to determine the relative influence of climate, region, and remediation efforts on biodiversity outcomes. Results indicate that remediated sections generally supported slightly higher species richness than upstream controls, suggesting modest ecological benefits. However, Shannon and Simpson indices revealed no significant differences in community evenness, and macroinvertebrate composition varied substantially among sites, with no distinct patterns separating remediated and non-remediated sections. The BLM confirmed that remediation had a small but positive effect on species richness, though climatic and regional factors also emerged as key drivers of macroinvertebrate diversity. Our findings show that ditch remediation does not negatively affect aquatic biodiversity and may confer slight ecological gains. Future remediation efforts could further enhance biodiversity by emphasizing habitat complexity. Overall, this study underscores the value of integrating biodiversity considerations into agricultural water management and calls for additional research on structural complexity and natural geomorphological processes, thereby promoting multifunctionality in agricultural drainage systems.

How to cite: Livsey, J., Wynants, M., Hallberg, L., and Bieroza, M.: Ditch Design and Ecological Outcomes: Investigating the Link Between Agricultural Drainage, Macroinvertebrates, and Water Quality in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17766, 2025.

EGU25-18500 | Orals | HS10.1

Snowmelt contributions to green and blue water fluxes: a model-data approach in a snow-dominated mountain catchment 

Sylvain Kuppel, Rosemary Carroll, Craig Ulrich, Kenneth Williams, and Matthias Sprenger

The snow-dominated headwaters of the Colorado River are water towers of the south-western US. Together with an increasingly unsustainable water demand downstream in the Colorado basin, the transition to low- or no-snow conditions upstream in the coming decades has been profoundly altering hydrological regimes and water resources for ecosystems and societies. Looking at the “supply side” of this crucial issue, several studies in the intensively-monitored East River catchment in the Upper Colorado River (spanning shrub-dominated montane valley bottoms, subalpine forests and alpine barren hilltops) have pointed at snowmelt as a main driver of runoff generation and a significant contributor to plant-available green water during the growing season. Yet, a spatially-explicit analysis linking plant water use and runoff generation is lacking. Here we present how observations of stable isotopes of water (2H and 18O) in the precipitation and stream water, combined with spatio-temporal observations of snow cover and depth with multiple datasets related to the hydrometry and the energy budget, can be used to constrain and evaluate an ecohydrological modelling tool to then track snowmelt contributions to runoff and plant water use. Over the 2014-2020 time period, we deployed a new version of the spatially-distributed, process-based model EcH2O-iso. The multi-objective calibration yielded a overall good model-data fit across critical zone interfaces and scales (stream, soil, snowpack, groundwater, ET), hinting at the model's ability to capture water fluxes, stores and mixing patterns in the catchment. A set of virtual tracers, tagging snowmelt and lateral saturated flow, further enabled to quantify the large contribution of snowmelt to stream discharge (60-80%) and root uptake (50-70%), much in line with previous independent, spatially-lumped estimates. We further evidence that snowmelt contributions to stream discharge both mobilizes fast surface pathways (runoff in Spring, dominant) and slower lateral groundwater flow downhill and seepage, with corresponding water ages up to several decades. Indeed, this baseflow remains significant in the growing season (~25% of outlet discharge or more), and we find that snowmelt makes up ~60% of groundwater recharge, again in agreement with previous estimates. From this catchment-scale picture, we further explore the spatial patterns of water ages and snowmelt fraction in blue and green water across the ecoclimatic zones of this catchment.

How to cite: Kuppel, S., Carroll, R., Ulrich, C., Williams, K., and Sprenger, M.: Snowmelt contributions to green and blue water fluxes: a model-data approach in a snow-dominated mountain catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18500, 2025.

EGU25-18565 | Orals | HS10.1

ALIAS: A Remote Sensing Approach to Monitor Ailanthus altissima Invasion and its Ecohydrological Impacts 

Leonardo Valerio Noto, Francesco Alongi, Dario De Caro, Emilio Badalamenti, Fulvio Capodici, Rafael Da Silveira Bueno, Dario Pumo, Tommaso La Mantia, and Giuseppe Ciraolo

Biodiversity loss is a growing threat to natural ecosystems, driven by a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors (e.g., urbanization, deforestation, and, notably, climate change). Such factors can alter wildfire regimes, with the possible consequent creation of more available space for the establishment of invasive alien species. These, often highly adaptable and with rapid growth capabilities, can profoundly alter local ecosystems, disrupt hydrological processes, and reduce native biodiversity.

Among the most concerning invasive species, Ailanthus altissima has rapidly spread across the globe. Ailanthus is distinguished by its ability to adapt to a wide range of environmental conditions. It is resilient to extreme temperatures, able to grow on various soil types, and tolerant of high levels of air pollution, making it adapted also to disturbed/degraded environments. The species can regenerate even when it is cut or burned. Seed dispersal occurs through wind, but also via water, animals, and humans. Ailanthus demonstrated a strong dependence on water availability, employing deep root systems and efficient water uptake strategies to thrive in water-limited environments. This exacerbates competition with native species, particularly in regions under hydric stress, where Ailanthus can monopolize water resources and disrupt local ecohydrological balance, such in the case of Mediterranean ecosystems.

This work presents ALIAS (Ailanthus Locator and Identification Algorithm Suite), a machine learning-based classifier based on the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, that uses high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery, designed to enable accurate remote detection of Ailanthus in specific areas of interest. ALIAS was calibrated by focusing on the presence of Ailanthus along transportation corridors, where species frequently establishes itself due to the wind generated by vehicles facilitating seed dispersal, and in hydrologically connected areas, such as riparian zones. Validation was conducted in an area with a confirmed invasion, i.e., the “Vallone Piano della Corte” Nature Reserve (Sicily, Italy). It represents a sensitive site where local biodiversity and water resources are threatened by dense clusters of Ailanthus. Over the past four decades, the species has progressively expanded, creating populations that competed with native plants and disrupted the natural ecosystem balance. Particularly, four distinct clusters of Ailanthus were identified on the south-facing slope of the site. In contrast, the north-facing slope hosts native flora, i.e., Quercus pubescens forest stands. A diachronic analysis was also performed, reconstructing the invasion of Ailanthus from the late 1980s and performing field surveys with drone acquisitions to obtain the current distribution and the area of invasion. These historical insights were critical for validating ALIAS and demonstrating its reliability.

The results obtained highlight classifier’s potential as a predictive tool for identifying regions at high risk of invasion, particularly in hydrologically sensitive areas. By enabling efficient monitoring of Ailanthus in both confirmed and potentially at-risk zones, ALIAS provides critical insights into the ecohydrological dynamics of invasive species. Furthermore, the classified images resulting from the use of the classifier form the basis for validating vegetation dynamics models (e.g., CATGraSS model), able to reconstruct invasion dynamics and to predict the future expansion of Ailanthus under different climate change and hydrological scenarios.

How to cite: Noto, L. V., Alongi, F., De Caro, D., Badalamenti, E., Capodici, F., Da Silveira Bueno, R., Pumo, D., La Mantia, T., and Ciraolo, G.: ALIAS: A Remote Sensing Approach to Monitor Ailanthus altissima Invasion and its Ecohydrological Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18565, 2025.

EGU25-18761 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.1

Influences of vegetation, soil properties, topography and microclimate on alpine catchment hydrology 

Leon Duurkoop, Esther Brakkee, Dick van de Lisdonk, Didier Haagmans, Walter Immerzeel, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, Philip Kraaijenbrink, and Jana Eichel

Climate change is causing severe impacts in mountainous regions, leading to "greening" as vegetation densifies and shifts upslope as a response to rising temperatures. This vegetation change affects the hydrological cycle, influencing aspects like infiltration, retention, and evapotranspiration, which in turn alters water availability in both mountain catchments and downstream areas. As snow and ice storage decrease, understanding these hydrological effects becomes increasingly important for human water security.

To investigate how mountain vegetation changes could affect hydrology, we established 40 vegetation plots in the alpine Meretschi Catchment (6.2 km2) in Switzerland in five vegetation classes: bare, pioneer, grass, dwarf shrubs and larger shrubs/forest. At each plot we measured soil temperature and soil moisture with TOMST-TMS4 loggers at 15-minute intervals over the period 2023-2024. In addition, we collected and derived data on plot species composition, soil characteristics and topography. Using uni- and multivariate statistical analyses (Spearman, non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) with post-hoc and Kruskal-Wallis with Dunn test) , we investigated interactions between vegetation, soil properties, topography, microclimate and hydrology (soil moisture, saturated conductivity (Ksat) and snowmelt driven moisture increase).

Our results show that:

  • Soil moisture responds differently under different vegetation classes. Bare and pioneer classes have relatively low soil moisture values, while grass, dwarf shrub and larger shrubs/forest have higher values. Dwarf shrubs distinguish themselves from the others by having low soil moisture values during winter. This means that shifting vegetation due to greening is likely to affect the hydrology in a mountain catchment.
  • Soil characteristics seem to be closely linked to soil moisture and vegetation following the same division. This is likely due to soil developmental properties of the vegetation.
  • Topography has weak links to hydrology, with only elevation negatively correlating with soil moisture. This indicates that the differences hydrological response found between the vegetation classes cannot be attributed to differences in slope or aspect.
  • Temperature showed to be variable between plots and vegetation classes resulting in differences in snow cover durations. For dwarf shrubs it was very noticeable that the melting period set in earlier and was shorter. This did not reflect in the snowmelt driven moisture increase.

Our research shows that in the Meretschi Catchment hydrological factors such as soil moisture and Ksat are influenced by vegetation. This indicates that changing vegetation might considerably alter the  present-day hydrology of mountain catchments. While other contributing factors, such as soil properties, topography, and climate are important, vegetation is key in understanding the complexities of the hydrological system.

How to cite: Duurkoop, L., Brakkee, E., van de Lisdonk, D., Haagmans, D., Immerzeel, W., Wagner-Cremer, F., Kraaijenbrink, P., and Eichel, J.: Influences of vegetation, soil properties, topography and microclimate on alpine catchment hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18761, 2025.

We study the biogeomorphologic feedbacks between landforms, vegetation, water and soils using a landscape evolution model in response to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability.  We first investigate the impact of seasonal variability of vegetation pools on erosion mechanisms. We use a landscape evolution modelling framework that includes mechanistic representations of hydrology and vegetation, to capture the effect of seasonal rainfall variability on different biomass above and below ground pools and the associated erosion protection. Rainfall leads to both runoff (erosion potential) and vegetation growth (erosion protection), but these two effects are not synchronized. Results for a Eucalyptus savanna landscape in the Northern Territory (Australia) suggest that maximum erosion events tend to occur early during the rainy season when vegetation protection is not strong, and that different pools have varying protection effects and timing through the year. We show that these dynamic effects and feedbacks need to be included to assess climate impacts in restoration and/or mitigation studies.

We then examine the effect of shifts in vegetation structure resulting from anthropogenic activities, which affect water and sediment redistribution in semiarid areas of Australia with sparce vegetation cover.  The study areas have patterned Mulga vegetation composed by mixed herbaceous and woody plant species, that evolve responding to competition and facilitation interactions.  We analyse modelling results from the coupled landform evolution-vegetation model on water redistribution and erosion to investigate how changes in biomass cover that alter the hydrologic response and lead to impacts on ecosystem functioning are linked to loss of resources leading to degraded states (identified from remote sensing data). These results are used to examine the potential impact of varying management strategies and the implications for the productivity of Australian rangelands.

How to cite: Saco, P., Quijano, J., and Rodriguez, J.: Life and landscapes down under: Modelling the effect of biogeomorphologic feedbacks to investigate human and climate change effects on landscape function., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19422, 2025.

Globally and regionally, large efforts had been made on spatial relationships between forest growth and precipitation. Yet, substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing their temporal relationships. A lack of experimental evidence that combines increased and decreased precipitation treatments to verify their relationships at site-level. Additionally, we do not know whether water in the deep soil profile drives the discrimination of their relationships when decreased vs. increased precipitation changes become extreme. To obtain generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation, our experiment was manipulated precipitation throughfall through gravity-driven transfer from the decrease precipitation treatment plots (–30%, –50%, –65%) to the increase precipitation plots (+30%, +50%, +65%) from mild, moderate to extreme level in a temperate deciduous forest (planting Black locust) on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Over the 3 years, the decreased and increased precipitation treatment caused the largest reduction and increment in soil water by 0.9% and 1.4%, soil water variability by 5.2% and 8.8%, leaf area index (LAI) both by 0.4 m3/m3, diameter at breast height (DBHPPT) by 0.18 cm and 0.34 cm, and forest biomass change ratio (FBCR) by 18% and 33%, respectively. Soil water showed nonlinear positive responses to the precipitation change, while forest growth (i.e., LAI, DBHPPT and FBCR) had linear positive responses to the soil water change. The mean sensitive of forest growth was higher to altered increase precipitation than decrease precipitation. Planting forest of Black locust showed high drought tolerance but rapid growth pattern and soil water uptake to decreased vs. increased precipitation. The growth pattern of forest corresponded to the large depleted soil water in the deep soil profile. We conclude that the strategies of forest responses to the soil water condition play an essential role in regulating the asymmetric response. Our findings emphasize that soil water will play an essential role in regulating forest growth along precipitation gradients. The positive asymmetric response of forest growth to altered precipitation indicates that the intensified interannual variability in the future may positively affect the variability of forest growth.

How to cite: Zhou, Z., Wang, Y., and Peng, S.: The causal role of soil water in asymmetric sensitivity of forest  growth from a filed precipitation manipulation experiment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21383, 2025.

EGU25-164 | ECS | Orals | HS10.2

The role of rock fractures as a water source for trees growing in karst 

Xiuqiang Liu, Xi Chen, Zhicai Zhang, Weihan Liu, Tao Peng, and Jeffrey McDonnell

Global warming has led to an accelerated dry-wet transition, causing forests to experience more water stress and water use strategy alterations. This could take a great effect on trees in karst region due to tremendous spatial and temporal variability of soil and rock moistures. In this study, we monitored and compared transpiration (sap flow) responses to meteorological variables, soil moisture content and rock moisture content at five sites with a variety of plant-soil-rock compositions in the karst region of southwest China. Results show that the soil-rock composition generally controlled tree growth and transpiration amount, and over 80% transpiration was concentrated in wet growing period. The thin soils can only offer a limited soil moisture and rock moisture dominated transpiration variability and physiological strategies of tree water-use. High and steady rock moisture in appropriate rock fractures enabled tree to exhibit isohydric behavior that can substantially reduce transpiration and seasonal variability. Conversely, low rock moisture made tree tend to anisohydric behavior that increased transpiration in the wet period for resisting drought stress in the dry period. The transition from isohydric to anisohydric behavior for tracking varying environment could reduce tree transpiration response to meteorological variations, such as vapor pressure deficit, and even results in alteration of tree size dominant transpiration. Since tree physiological behavior is extremely sensitive to climate variations and soil-rock compositions, the future acceleration of wet-dry transition is highly possible to increase vulnerability of ecosystems in the region. 

How to cite: Liu, X., Chen, X., Zhang, Z., Liu, W., Peng, T., and McDonnell, J.: The role of rock fractures as a water source for trees growing in karst, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-164, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-164, 2025.

EGU25-3785 | Posters on site | HS10.2

 Modeling and geophysical monitoring to uncover surface and subsurface water flows in post-fire management 

Benjamin Mary, Vicente Burchard-Levine, Miguel Ángel Herrezuelo, Hector Nieto, Manuel Esteban Lucas Borja, and Mónica García

The study investigates different post-fire forest restoration methods, including varying postfire structure densities, as well as mulching and physical barriers typology with a particular focus on field sites with high ecological values located in Castilla-La Mancha region (Spain). To date, there is limited empirical support for the efficacy of these management strategies in reinstating the water cycle to promote vegetation health and erosion prevention, despite substantial financial investment. The presentation will discuss the limitations of interpreting data from current point sensors and will cover development strategies for an effective survey technique, incorporating automatic geophysics (permanent Electrical Resistivity Tomography), to improve data collection for monitoring subsurface water dynamics. The prospection strategy is informed by preliminary modeling results derived from energy and water balance models, which predict evapotranspiration (ET) and plant water availability as well as groundwater recharge and flow.

How to cite: Mary, B., Burchard-Levine, V., Herrezuelo, M. Á., Nieto, H., Lucas Borja, M. E., and García, M.:  Modeling and geophysical monitoring to uncover surface and subsurface water flows in post-fire management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3785, 2025.

EGU25-5012 | Posters on site | HS10.2

Resilience of the large-scale ecological restoration: How water matters? 

Hang Xu, Jianzhuang Pang, Jiquan Chen, Xiaohua Wei, Wenxu Cao, Ge Sun, Yang Xu, and Zhiqiang Zhang

Large-scale ecological restoration has gained recognition as a promising nature-based solution for addressing global environmental and societal challenges. The Three-North Shelterbelt Forest Program (TNSFP), the world's largest ecological restoration project in China, has achieved considerable ecological and social benefits. However, its long-term resilience and sustainability remain subjects of scientific debate and public concern. Here, we explored vegetation resilience trajectories and their relationships with water budgets across the program region from 2001 to 2022, and projected future vegetation suitability through 2050 (i.e., the end of the TNSFP) by integrating meteorological observations, remote sensing data, and outputs from global circulation models. We found that 48.2% of the vegetation exhibited declining resilience, particularly in forested areas, despite widespread greening across the TNSFP region. Vegetation resilience strengthened against the increase in productivity within the water resource carrying capacity, but the relationship reversed once productivity surpassed water availability limits. Notably, forest resilience peaked under conditions of full precipitation utilization, whereas grassland resilience reached its lowest point when water supply and demand were balanced. By 2050, approximately 6.5% of the study area is projected to face degradation risk, with an additional 22.2% potentially at risk. Our findings emphasize the importance of water resource availability for vegetation resilience and stability, laying a scientific foundation for sustainable ecological restoration strategies.

How to cite: Xu, H., Pang, J., Chen, J., Wei, X., Cao, W., Sun, G., Xu, Y., and Zhang, Z.: Resilience of the large-scale ecological restoration: How water matters?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5012, 2025.

EGU25-6687 | ECS | Orals | HS10.2

Shallow rooted understory plants of different species use hydraulically redistributed water by mature oak trees during natural drought periods  

David Dluhosch, Timo Gebhardt, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Peter Annighöfer, and Benjamin D. Hafner

Both facilitative and competitive interactions between trees affect water relations and fluxes in temperate forests. During drought, hydraulic redistribution (HR) by deep-rooting species such as oak (Quercus robur L.) can provide water from deeper soil layers to shallow-rooted understorey plants. Assuming that shallow-rooted plants take up HR water from mature oaks during drought, we tested two hypotheses: (1) mature oaks share more HR water with oak seedlings than with other understorey plants, and (2) seedlings accumulate most HR water in their roots at sunrise because HR occurs over night. We also quantified how much HR water seedlings used in daily transpiration.

These hypotheses were tested in two experiments. 1) Over a period of six days in July 2023, a total of 7.2 L of ²H-labelled water (5 atom%) was added to a depth of 50-70 cm around mature oak trees in a forest in Brandenburg, Germany. We sampled soils, stem xylem of mature oaks, and roots of two tree species seedlings (oak and black cherry, Prunus serotina EHRH.) and a herbaceous plant (small balsam, Impatiens parviflora DC.) near the labelled trees. From all samples in the water was extracted via cryogenic water extraction and the isotopic composition of the water was analysed. After six days, recovery of δ²H in 0-10 cm soil depths indicated HR via oak roots. Also, seedling roots were enriched in δ²H, confirming HR water uptake with 16 ± 8 % (oak), 13 ± 7 % (black cherry) and 8 ± 4 % (small balsam) of root water originating from HR. Oak seedlings initially had more HR water in root tissues than other species, suggesting faster transport of HR water to oak seedlings, possibly due to shared mycorrhizae or root contact. However, after 60 days, the HR water content of all shallow-rooted understorey plants equalised (~20 %), rejecting our hypothesis 1 that HR water is preferentially found in seedlings of the same species (here: oak).

2) In August 2024, in a Bavarian forest (Germany), soil and stem xylem samples of mature oaks were collected together with root samples from oak seedlings at five daily intervals. Water was again extracted from all samples as in experiment 1. Following the natural gradient of stable water isotope composition in the soil profile, we considered HR water uptake by seedlings, if δ18O values in seedlings did not match δ18O in the surrounding soil, but reflected deeper soil values. At each time interval, seedling transpiration was measured before root excavation. The highest HR water content was found at midday, not at sunrise, in seedlings’ root water, rejecting hypothesis 2. Nevertheless, 29 ± 6 % of the oak seedlings’ daily transpired water originated from HR, emphasising the importance of HR for shallow-rooted understorey plants during drought. Future research should focus on the transport pathways of HR water from mature trees to shallow-rooted understorey plants to improve mechanistic understanding.

How to cite: Dluhosch, D., Gebhardt, T., Grams, T. E. E., Annighöfer, P., and Hafner, B. D.: Shallow rooted understory plants of different species use hydraulically redistributed water by mature oak trees during natural drought periods , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6687, 2025.

EGU25-7210 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.2

The role of fog in the water balance of coastal mediterranean forest in Chile 

Jorge Herrera, Felipe Lobos-Roco, Patricio Pliscoff, and Camilo del Río

In mediterranean-type climate conditions, fog contributes significantly to the water balance of the ecosystem, since precipitation rates are lower than evapotranspiration rates. However, it remains unclear whether fog contribution is a direct input of water to the system through canopy dripping or if it limits evapotranspiration by limiting radiation and vapor pressure deficit. Focusing on the former, in this study we aim to understand the fog water as a input to the water balance in mediterranean coastal forests. Using the water balance principle (ΔS = ET - (P + F)), we characterize the key elements of water storage (ΔS), evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation (P), and fog (F) over different vegetation units that compose the mediterranean forest. The data used for this characterization is gathered from in-situ measurements (meteorological stations and standard fog collectors) and remote sensing sources (GOES and MODIS products). To quantify fog interception by vegetation unit canopies, a numerical model (AMARU; Lobos-Roco et al., 2025) is used, which estimates the fog inflow from routine meteorological data. By solving the water balance equation for the forest areas, we are able to determine the fog collection efficiency, which allows us to estimate the amount of water collected by the forest. Finally, to evaluate the modeling outputs, we conduct an in-situ experiment to measure water collection from the forest canopy using analog rain gauges. Our preliminary results show that fog contributes as water input in forests located in south and west facing slopes, reaching ET requirements. Moreover, our estimates of forest fog collection efficiency round 10%, meaning that only 1/10 of fog inflow is captured by forest canopy. We expect that this study contributes to advance our understanding of forest dynamics in coastal mediterranean ecosystems and their responses to fog water input. 

How to cite: Herrera, J., Lobos-Roco, F., Pliscoff, P., and del Río, C.: The role of fog in the water balance of coastal mediterranean forest in Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7210, 2025.

EGU25-8222 | Posters on site | HS10.2

 Species-Specific Interactions Between Canopy Cover, Soil Water Dynamics, and Root Water Uptake in Temperate Forest Ecosystems 

Anke Hildebrandt, Natascha Lukas, and Ruth-Kristina Magh

In forested environments, precipitation is intercepted and redistributed within the tree canopy, thereby generating spatially heterogeneous water fluxes to the forest floor. Water from the forest soil is taken up by roots and subsequently released back into the atmosphere through the process of transpiration. However, the effect of either of these processes on spatial variation of soil water content and water fluxes remains to be elucidated.

In this study, we examined the temporal variability in soil water content, measured along a canopy cover gradient of three distinct tree species over two years. Our analysis focused on two phases of soil drying following precipitation events during the growing season. Specifically, we evaluated the immediate effect of precipitation on soil wetting and the subsequent root water uptake during longer dry periods. To identify the factors significantly influencing the soil water response to precipitation, we employed a linear mixed effects modeling approach.

The results indicate that spatial patterns of throughfall had a weak yet significant influence on the soil water response. The effect of position along the canopy cover gradient depended on event gross precipitation, which suggests that the canopy cover gradient only reflected the spatial patterns of water input when gross precipitation was low. Soil wetting was less pronounced under Fagus sylvatica than under Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris. The soil water response to precipitation was found to be influenced by the spatial patterns of the pre-event soil moisture, with soil profiles that were locally wetter responding more strongly to precipitation,  as has previously been observed for other sites and vegetation covers. This effect was more pronounced in overall dry soils and higher event gross precipitation, hence indicating preferential flow. Furthermore, root water uptake was found to be considerably higher under F. sylvatica and P. sylvestris than under P. abies. The root water uptake depth profiles of F. sylvatica and P. sylvestris exhibited substantial uptake from soil layers as deep as one meter below the soil surface, whereas root water uptake of P. abies was more confined to the topsoil, despite occasional observations of deeper root water uptake.

The findings of this work emphasize the influence of the tree canopy on belowground water fluxes and illustrate pronounced species-specific differences in soil wetting and root water uptake.

How to cite: Hildebrandt, A., Lukas, N., and Magh, R.-K.:  Species-Specific Interactions Between Canopy Cover, Soil Water Dynamics, and Root Water Uptake in Temperate Forest Ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8222, 2025.

EGU25-8408 | Orals | HS10.2

Modelling the changes in the isotopic composition of water routing through the forest canopy 

Pilar Llorens, Carles Cayuela, Juan Pinos, Jérôme Latron, and Francesc Gallart

Ecohydrological studies frequently use the stable isotopic composition of precipitation as a natural tracer. In wooded areas, understanding how the precipitation isotopic composition is modified as it passes through the canopy is therefore key to accurate ecohydrological assessments. This work presents a model to estimate the isotopic composition of throughfall at a detailed time-step, based on the dynamics of rainfall isotopic composition and meteorological conditions during rainfall events. The model couples the Rutter (1971) rainfall interception model with the Gonfiantini (1986) equation, the latter is used to estimate the stable isotopic composition of open water bodies subject to evaporation.

The model was tested and validated using intra-event volumes (5 min intervals) and isotopic compositions (131 samples, sampled each 5-mm of rainfall) from 25 rainfall/throughfall events in a Scots pine forest at the Vallcebre Research Catchments (South-Eastern Pyrenees, Spain).

The results demonstrate the model's ability to predict both throughfall volumes and the isotopic compositions across a range of precipitation events with marked differences in precipitation volumes (9 to 72 mm), mean intensities (0.6 to 29 mmh-1), meteorological conditions, and different intra-event dynamics of the rainfall isotopic composition. An excellent correlation was found between observed and predicted throughfall volumes, with 84% of the events having a Kling-Gupta efficiency greater than 0.65. In addition, the model accurately predicted the observed throughfall isotopic signature (for δ18O, r2=0.98, p<0.05). At the intra-event scale, observed and predicted throughfall isotopic signatures were not statistically different. However, the isotopic shift between throughfall and rainfall was somewhat higher for the observed throughfall compared to model results, with 84% and 76% of the throughfall observed and predicted samples, respectively, more enriched than rainfall.

How to cite: Llorens, P., Cayuela, C., Pinos, J., Latron, J., and Gallart, F.: Modelling the changes in the isotopic composition of water routing through the forest canopy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8408, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8408, 2025.

EGU25-8878 | ECS | Orals | HS10.2

 Continuous Observations Highlight Depth-Dependent Soil Matric Potential as Drivers of Stem Water Potential in Temperate Forests under non-drought conditions 

Ruth-Kristina Magh, Sharath Shyamappa Paligi, Phillip Papastefanou, Anne Klosterhalfen, Clara Rohde, Maren Dubbert, Matthias Beyer, Simon Haberstroh, Christiane Werner, Felix Pohl, and Anke Hildebrandt

Water potential is a key driver of fluxes within natural ecosystems, governing water flow and its direction. Understanding plant hydraulics is essential in the context of climate change, as it helps evaluate the suitability of plant species for specific locations. Plant water potential, and its response to environmental changes, plays a pivotal role in this assessment. 

Traditionally, the measurement of plant water potentials has been conducted destructively and intermittently, often employing time-consuming techniques e.g. using a pressure chamber. This has resulted in low temporal resolution of water potential data for individual plants. In contrast, meteorological forcing and topsoil moisture often exhibit much greater variability. This mismatch hinders our understanding of plant responses to changing environmental conditions. This study evaluated the performance of a novel microtensiometer for continuous stem water potential monitoring. Using soil matric potential data at multiple depths, meteorological variables, and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we analysed stem water potential drivers across three German forest sites via boosted regression trees.

The microtensiometer demonstrated reliability across environmental conditions and for several deciduous tree species (i.e., Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Carpinus betulus), provided the installation depth was appropriately adjusted for ring-porous species.

Boosted regression analysis revealed soil matric potential at varying soil depths as the primary influence on hourly stem water potential. Uppermost soil layers predominantly influenced stem water potential during the day, while deeper soil layers became more important towards the late evening. This research underscores the microtensiometer's potential to advance plant hydraulics research, offering a continuous, cheaper and minimal-destructive tool to monitor water potential dynamics in forest ecosystems, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

How to cite: Magh, R.-K., Paligi, S. S., Papastefanou, P., Klosterhalfen, A., Rohde, C., Dubbert, M., Beyer, M., Haberstroh, S., Werner, C., Pohl, F., and Hildebrandt, A.:  Continuous Observations Highlight Depth-Dependent Soil Matric Potential as Drivers of Stem Water Potential in Temperate Forests under non-drought conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8878, 2025.

EGU25-11195 | Orals | HS10.2

Unveiling the forest subsurface and its invisible water, what can geophysics bring to forest ecohydrology 

Damien Jougnot, Bertille Loiseau, Quentin Chaffaut, Kamini Singha, Nicolas Delpierre, Roger Guérin, Rémi Clément, Cédric Champollion, Claude Doussan, Nicolas Martin-StPaul, and Simon Carrière

Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and are central in the carbon and water cycles. Soil water availability is one of the most important factors regulating transpiration, biomass production and plant species distribution in ecosystems. The carbon and water cycles are closely linked and so understanding the functioning and evolution of forest environments and their relation to subsurface structure and water availability is essential to improve understanding of the water cycle under a changing climate. Studying the forest subsurface is a challenge because of its heterogeneous nature and difficult accessibility. Traditional approaches used by ecologists are also often point measurements that have a low spatial representativity. Near-surface geophysics offers a wide range of methods to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of subsurface properties and associated processes in a non-destructive and integrative way. Geophysical methods allow us to obtain new information that complements ecophysiological methods to better understand ecosystem functioning, and in particular processes linked to ecohydrology. The use of geophysical methods in forests is growing, both by geophysicists seeking to apply their tools to more complex environments, and by ecologists seeking to better characterize their experimental sites. One of the major applications and assets of geophysics in forests is to quantify and monitor water stocks and dynamics. For example, geoelectrical monitoring can be used to assess the distribution and spatial variations of water content in the subsoil. In this work, we show the example of a recently developed ensemble approach to quantitatively relate electrical conductivity monitoring and the distribution and dynamic of water in forest soils. We believe that such interdisciplinary advances can help us improving the quantitative assessment of forest responses to the environment and their adaptation to climate change.

How to cite: Jougnot, D., Loiseau, B., Chaffaut, Q., Singha, K., Delpierre, N., Guérin, R., Clément, R., Champollion, C., Doussan, C., Martin-StPaul, N., and Carrière, S.: Unveiling the forest subsurface and its invisible water, what can geophysics bring to forest ecohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11195, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11195, 2025.

Extensive afforestation since the mid-19th century has contributed to the desiccation of former wetland and mire ecosystems in Europe. Restoration of wet conditions is expected from transformation of evergreen coniferous forest characterized by high interception and transpiration to deciduous forest and low vegetation. The quantification of the spatial effects of such forest transformation on groundwater levels is difficult because evapotranspiration is usually calculated from atmospheric parameters only, while transpiration by plants and trees is partly determined by available soil moisture and groundwater. The aim was to develop a transient 3-D model that can calculate the effects of land use changes on groundwater levels and fluxes in time and space. For this purpose, a transient 3-D groundwater model (Modflow) per time step was linked to a 1-D top Model for Recharge (TMR). Recharge was calculated here from precipitation and reference evaporation, interception and evaporation related to vegetation (season LAI), transpiration depending on available soil moisture in the root zone and groundwater level per time step. Negative recharges were calculated at water levels just below or above ground level partly due to water losses by overland flow. The TMR model has been validated with time series (> 30 years) of groundwater level observations at various locations. A Modflow model of 5 model layers, cell size 10 x 10 m, time step 1 day, during 10 years has been built of a 55 km2 large pilot area in Niedersachsen (DE) using Python and the PCRaster-Modflow (https://pcraster.geo.uu.nl/) platform. The LAI is classified from available forest stand data and land use maps. Soil parameters are based on the soil map of Germany (1:50k). The developed TMR-MF model has been validated for the period 2007-2016 by comparing calculated groundwater levels with measured levels at 86 locations. Mean deviation was 0.038 m. (Stdev.: 0.309 m., R2=0.9929). This model was used to quantitatively spatially analyse the effectiveness of forest conversion scenarios on eco-hydrological restoration of a dried-up stream valley lowland bog.

Acknowledgments: This project was created in collaboration with Niedersächsische Landesforsten (NLF) Fachbereich Entwicklung & Innovation and the Abteilung Wasserbewirtschaftung und Wasserrechte Oldenburgisch-Ostfriesischer Wasserverband (OOWV). Meteorological data were obtained from the Deutscher Wetterdienst.

How to cite: Bleuten, W. and Schmitz, O.: Top Model for calculating groundwater Recharge (TMR) based on vegetation LAI, soil properties and groundwater depth coupled with 3-D dynamic groundwater modeling using PCRaster-Modflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11454, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11454, 2025.

EGU25-12208 | ECS | Orals | HS10.2

Soil Moisture Dynamics Under Long-Term Thinning and Dryland Forest Management Using TDR Sensors 

Hussein Muklada, Yosef Moshe, Ze'ev Cohen, Konstantin Zavalishin, and Yagil Osem

Mediterranean dryland forests are defined by intricate relationships between vegetation, soil, and water. This study explores the long-term effects of thinning on soil moisture dynamics and canopy's rain and light interception in the Kedoshim Forest, Judean Mountains, Israel. This mature Pinus halepensis forest receives approximately 550 mm of annual precipitation.

The research, conducted within a Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) framework, compared two heavily thinned plots (100 trees ha⁻¹, thinned 15 years ago) with two non-thinned control plots (550 trees ha⁻¹). Soil moisture was monitored continuously using Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) sensors at depths of 0.5 m, 1.0 m, and 1.5 m. Annual measurements of overstory and understory leaf area indexes (LAI) were conducted to evaluate vegetation structure. Rain interception by a dense Jerusalem pine canopy and meteorological data from local stations were recorded.

Results

Vegetation Dynamics: Control plots maintained 50% higher overstory LAI (2.06 ± 0.2) than thinned plots (1.34 ± 0.1). However, understory LAI was greater in thinned plots (1.24 ± 0.2) and comprised 48% of total LAI versus (0.82 ± 0.2) in control plots with 28% of total LAI, reflecting enhanced understory growth following 15 years post-thinning.

Abiotic effects: No significant differences were observed in air temperature and humidity, but wind speed and radiation reaching the understory were higher in the thinning compared to the control plots. Forest thinning caused a reduction in both light interception and water consumption by the forest overstory trees. The understory vegetation utilized these released resources.

Soil Moisture Dynamics: Thinned plots had higher annual mean soil moisture at shallow depths (0.5 m) (19.3% ± 1.9%) compared to control plots (17.7% ± 1.8%, P < 0.0001) due to reduced rain interception by overstory canopy. This difference was significant during the rainy season. However, at 1.5 m, control plots exhibited higher mean soil moisture (29.3% ± 2.7%) than thinned plots (25.5% ± 2.1%, P < 0.0001), likely due to greater understory water consumption in the thinned plots during the all hydrological season. No significant differences were observed at 1.0 m depth.

Discussion and Implications

Thinning has lasting impacts on forest hydrology. Reduced rain interception in thinned plots increases shallow soil moisture during the rainy season, while light interception enhances undergrowth and water consumption by understory vegetation. These findings highlight the complex interplay between overstory and understory vegetation structure and characteristics in driving hydrological outcomes.

Observing soil moisture along root-zone depth levels offers insight into the soil water variability dynamics, adding to better dryland forest management.

 Conclusion

This study underscores the importance of integrated ecohydrological strategies for resilient dryland forest management under varying climatic and management conditions.

 

How to cite: Muklada, H., Moshe, Y., Cohen, Z., Zavalishin, K., and Osem, Y.: Soil Moisture Dynamics Under Long-Term Thinning and Dryland Forest Management Using TDR Sensors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12208, 2025.

EGU25-13849 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.2

Modulation of evapotranspiration and stream runoff by weathered bedrock in arid and semi-arid mountains  

Pengfei Lin, Zhibin He, Xi Zhu, and Quanyan Tian

Earth’s Critical Zone exhibits remarkable heterogeneity and complexity. Hence, further investigation is required to examine the composition of Earth’s Critical Zone as well as the diverse eco-hydrological patterns they exhibit under varying climatic and geological circumstances. This exploration should primarily be conducted through the investigation and experiments of the hillslope unit, where the topography and weathered bedrock are representative, with particular emphasis on semi-arid regions where water resources serve as the primary limiting factor. Here, we have determined that the structure of the weathering profile displays systematic variation across the topography and heterogeneous landscape on uninterrupted slopes. Differences in the structure of the subsurface critical zone led to differencesin its water storage capacity at the same time.Runoff in alpine shrubs and forests was dominated by subsurface runoff, and grassland was dominated by surface runoff. In the alpine shrub immediately adjacent to the watershed, an estimated quantity of 129 mm of water is stored within the unsaturated zone of the soil, serving as exchange water to replenish moisture in the underlying bedrock. In contrast to alpine shrubs, an estimated quantity of 62.7 mm of water originates from the unsaturated zone of soil and weathered bedrock in the forest. However, approximately 21.1 mm of moisture is unavailable to plants. The soil water storage in grasslands exhibits a decline throughout the growing season, with a subsequent augmentation occurring solely after substantial precipitation events exceeding 20 mm. In wet years, dynamic storage predominantly manifests as groundwater saturation throughout the entire ground and high subsurface runoff. In dry years, the limited runoff response indicates that the catchment’s dynamic water storage primarily comprises“indirect”water storage, which predominantly resides within the soil, saprolite, and weathered rock below the“field capacity”, subsequently being released into the atmosphere through evapotranspiration.

How to cite: Lin, P., He, Z., Zhu, X., and Tian, Q.: Modulation of evapotranspiration and stream runoff by weathered bedrock in arid and semi-arid mountains , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13849, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13849, 2025.

EGU25-16286 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.2

Linking root water uptake, plant-hydraulic traits and transpiration dynamics of beech and spruce 

Stefano Martinetti, Andrea Carminati, Peter Molnar, and Marius Floriancic

Transpiration, a major water flux of the hydrological cycle, is limited by plant’s control on stomatal conductance. Plants increase stomatal conductance to take up carbon from the atmosphere for photosynthesis, i.e., during periods of high radiation, and decrease stomatal conductance to limit water loss, i.e., during periods of high vapor pressure deficit. At the same time, stomatal conductance is thightly linked to leaf water potential, which in turn is affected by the water availability for the plant through its root distribution across the gradient of water potentials in the soil. This soil-plant hydraulic system differs across species depending on the species-specific hydraulic traits, such as the stomatal sensitivity to changing leaf water potentials or the distribution of roots in the soil. Furthermore, the ability to store and release water from its tissues, here referred to as hydraulic capacitance, directly affects soil-plant hydraulics by enabling plants to source water from their internal water storage instead of the soil. Thereby, hydraulic capacitance can act as a hydraulic buffer during periods of low water availability in the root zone or high water demand from the atmosphere, particularly when plant internal water storage is high. Because plant water storage and hydraulic capacitance are rarely considered in soil-plant hydraulic models and can not directly be measured in the field, we still lack a comprehensive mechanistic understanding on how capacitance potentially affects stomatal regulation across species and environmental conditions.

In this study, we extended a soil-plant hydraulic model that simulates water fluxes across the soil-plant system utilizing well-constrained concepts of water flow in porous media, to include plant water storage and hydraulic capacitance. The model serves to better understand the sensitivity of soil-plant hydraulics towards plant water storage and capacitance. Soil-plant hydraulic simulations were validated with data from the ‘WaldLab forest experimental site’ in Zürich, Switzerland, where we have been measuring water fluxes and potentials in soils, roots, stems and stomata of beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) trees for the past four growing seasons, including periods of limited water availability. The measurements together with the hydraulic simulations yield novel insights into species-specific water use strategies and hydraulic traits.

Our results show the different stomatal behaviour of beech and spruce, with beech generally allowing leaf water potentials to drop further than spruce. Both species showed shifts to deep root water uptake during soil drying, but the higher uptake from deeper and wetter soils was not enough to compensate for the lower water availability in the shallower, drier soils. We observed higher water storage capacity and hydraulic capacitance in spruce. However, despite higher capacitance, spruce were more conservative in their water use and did typically not allow high transpiration rates and low leaf water potentials.

How to cite: Martinetti, S., Carminati, A., Molnar, P., and Floriancic, M.: Linking root water uptake, plant-hydraulic traits and transpiration dynamics of beech and spruce, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16286, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16286, 2025.

The exchange of fluxes between surface and subsurface water pools and vegetation is highly complex due to the dynamic - in space and time- interactions among several biotic (physiological) and abiotic (hydrometeorological, geological, geomorphological, pedological) factors. Efforts that go beyond the analysis of individual processes and aim at capturing how different processes and factors are strictly connected are essential to achieve a wider understanding of how forest ecosystems work and respond to climate stress. In this work, I capitalize and build on an increasing knowledge deriving from field observations in the mountain forested Re della Pietra experimental catchment (2 km2) in Italy, to investigate the main ecohydrological linkages governing the functioning of this ecosystem, specifically focusing on the role of hillslope topography.

Field measurements and statistical modelling analyses carried out through wavelet and machine learning applications revealed that the high slope of a 120m-long monitored hillslope in the headwater of the catchment controlled the spatial distribution of water in the vadose zone and affected the occurrence of subsurface preferential flow.

Higher soil water contents in the lower part of the hillslope promoted a faster and more efficient growth of trees that had larger diameters compared to trees in the upper part of the hillslope, although being of the same age, clearly reflecting local differences in water availability that impacted on growth rates. This behaviour was confirmed by sapflow measurements and isotope data that showed more reduced sapflow velocity of trees in the upper part of the hillslope during dry conditions compared to trees at the hillslope bottom, despite soil water in the first 40-cm was the main source for all trees. In turn, these differences in tree size and canopy expansion along the hillslope affected canopy interception, with larger and temporally stable patterns of throughfall in the upper hillslope, characterized by less dense canopies, than the hillslope bottom. Moreover, the relation between sap flow velocity and vapour pressure deficit varied along the hillslope as well, with larger hysteresis loops as a function of increased solar radiation, temperature, and soil moisture in the upper and middle part of the hillslope but erratic and more complex patterns at the hillslope bottom.

In the headwater, preferential flow occurred preferably in the middle hillslope position and more frequently during wet antecedent conditions, revealing a feedback relation between preferential flow and soil moisture. The initiation of preferential flow contributed to developing subsurface hillslope-stream connectivity that promoted sustained streamflow during large events. However, in the lower part of the catchment, where the hillslope slope is gentler, preferential flow was mainly controlled by soil properties (particularly, bulk density) and occurred more frequently than in the headwaters indicating that other factors interact with topography.

These results contribute to a more thorough understanding of ecohydrological linkages in mountain forested catchments and pave the way for further analyses aimed at disentangling the combined role of different but complementary factors driving the ecological and hydrological response of forest ecosystems.

How to cite: Penna, D.: Ecohydrological linkages in forest ecosystems: the case of the Re della Pietra catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16320, 2025.

EGU25-16340 | Posters on site | HS10.2

Forest Demography and Ecohydrological Dynamics Incorporating in the T&C (Tethys-Chloris) model 

Jiuzhou Yan, Ana Mijic, and Athanasios Paschalis

Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in regulating large-scale hydrological and biological cycles on the land surface. They currently store approximately 45% of the total carbon on land, sequester around 80 Pg of carbon annually, responsible to 70–80% of total terrestrial evapotranspiration. Modeling the coupled carbon and water dynamics of forests remains a significant challenge due to their structural complexity. Approximately 25% of forests are rejuvenating, short-stature forests recovering from recent disturbances, while older forests are typically highly diverse, with multiple species competing for resources. To effectively model these dynamics, advancements in representing structural complexity are essential. These models need to adopt parsimonious approaches that account for the limited availability of data while maintaining accuracy and scalability.

Among the various simulation approaches, we have selected the Tethys-Chloris (T&C) model in this study. The T&C model offers several advantages, such as highly customizable parameters for representing multiple species and detailed soil carbon pools to simulate soil carbon dynamics and soil biogeochemistry. These features make the T&C model a promising tool for accurately simulating and predicting forest ecosystem behaviour. However, its forest demography component is currently simplified, assuming uniform tree heights and properties within the same plant functional type (PFT). While this assumption works well for fully mature forests, it is inadequate for forests undergoing large-scale recruitment, growth, or mortality. These dynamic forests are increasingly common due to anthropogenic activities and climate change.

To address this limitation, we propose changing the original cohort-based forest demography in the T&C model. We plan to develop a new parsimonious forest demography scheme to represent the dynamics of forest ecosystems transportable to other land surface models. This scheme will utilize a tiling approach to represent species in the forest. In this scheme, we will redistribute research forests to a cohort-based allocation of tree species to represent the ecosystem's diversity and dynamics. The perfect plasticity approximation will represent the canopy's movement and closure. The interspecies competition for light, water and nutrients between cohorts of different heights and densities will be used to make simulations closer to reality.

To validate these enhancements to the T&C model, we are utilizing regional forest data from diverse climates, including flux data collected from observatories in North American, European and Amazon forests. Incorporating more diverse and precise datasets will further enhance the accuracy of forest ecosystem simulations and predictions.

How to cite: Yan, J., Mijic, A., and Paschalis, A.: Forest Demography and Ecohydrological Dynamics Incorporating in the T&C (Tethys-Chloris) model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16340, 2025.

EGU25-16741 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.2

Detectability of the daily evapotranspiration cycle in superconducting gravimeter timeseries according to the measurement configuration 

quentin Chaffaut, bertille Loiseau, malo Ginoux, Nolwenn Lesparre, Albert Olioso, Chloé Ollivier, Benjamin Belfort, Marie-Claire Pierret, Sébastien Merlet, Solenn Cotel, Cédric Champollion, Nicolas Le Moigne, Konstantinos Chalikakis, Naomi Mazzilli, Jérôme Demarty, Damien Jougnot, and Simon D. Carrière

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key process of the water cycle in general and in ecohydrology in particular. Measuring ET in forest eco-hydrosystems allows us to gain a better understanding of the response of forests to drought events, and to better anticipate the effects of climate change. Punctual (e.g. lysimeters or sapflow measurements) or integrative measurement methods (e.g. eddy covariance tower) can be used to estimate ET at the forest stand scale but these methods are not without limitations (e.g., resolution issues, representativeness, not adapted to mountainous areas).

Superconducting gravimeters can be used to study ET. These gravimeters can be deployed in both flat and mountainous environments. In this work, we studied the hydrological residuals (i.e., hydrologically induced gravity variations) of 5 superconducting gravimeters located in different contexts. We interpreted the daily decreases in the stacked hydrological residual as the loss of water mass due to evapotranspiration. These results were compared with those of the SimpKcET water balance model.

The results underline that the detectability of the ET signal depends strongly on the configuration of the gravimetric station, the topography and the type of ecosystem. We show that gravimeters located on summit area and in a forested context can detect the seasonality of ET. Conversely, gravimeters located in flat or underground areas and with a significant masking effect are unable to detect ET.

Gravimetry therefore has a strong complementarity with conventional methods used to study ET and could contribute to a better understanding of water fluxes in forested ecosystems.

How to cite: Chaffaut, Q., Loiseau, B., Ginoux, M., Lesparre, N., Olioso, A., Ollivier, C., Belfort, B., Pierret, M.-C., Merlet, S., Cotel, S., Champollion, C., Le Moigne, N., Chalikakis, K., Mazzilli, N., Demarty, J., Jougnot, D., and Carrière, S. D.: Detectability of the daily evapotranspiration cycle in superconducting gravimeter timeseries according to the measurement configuration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16741, 2025.

EGU25-17093 | Posters on site | HS10.2

The role of tree stands in transforming precipitation in the conditions of climate change and multi-directional human pressure 

Rafał Kozłowski, Joanna Przybylska, Mirosław Szwed, and Aneta Kozłowska

The environment constantly changes due to natural factors and human activity. Defining mechanisms of its functioning and tendencies of the changes has a significant theoretical and practical value. Plants substantially affect water cycle in the moderate climate zone. The role of canopy in transforming precipitation is connected to the process of interception. Moreover, tree crowns accumulating snow, especially in mountains, form excellent water reservoirs in winter.

Mountain areas gain additional water also due to cloud water deposition. This process is particularly effective in coniferous trees, with greater receptive area and better conditions for brushing out water droplets from clouds. The phenomenon can be observed in the central part of the Świętokrzyskie Mountains (SE Poland) mainly from October till April, with maximum intensity in November, when low level clouds are often present in the area elevated above the sea level. Additionally, the values of relative air humidity noted in January – March frequently reach 100%. Conifers, with greater receptive area and assimilation organs present throughout the year, caused an increase in mineralisation of water passing through their crowns. The values were from 1.9x (Scots pine) to 2.8x (silver fir) higher than the concentrations noted in precipitation. Increased mineralisation resulted from “brushing out” air pollutants by tree crowns and the “leaching effect” – washing off mineral and organic substances from plant organs by acidified rainwater. The load of majority of analysed substances reaching coniferous forest floor was higher than that in precipitation, and the values were reflected in the enrichment factor.

Research conducted in the Świętokrzyskie Mountains since 1994 indicates that the changing human pressure, including elevated deposition of acidifying substances, caused deterioration of forest health condition and acidification of soils.

How to cite: Kozłowski, R., Przybylska, J., Szwed, M., and Kozłowska, A.: The role of tree stands in transforming precipitation in the conditions of climate change and multi-directional human pressure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17093, 2025.

EGU25-17570 | Posters on site | HS10.2

The role of snow algae in snowmelt dynamics in mountain forests 

Roman Juras, Eva Hejduková, Lenka Procházková, Matěj Man, Milena Kociánová, and Linda Nedbalová

Snow algae (SA) significantly influence snowmelt dynamics and biogeochemical cycles by reducing snow albedo and modulating concentration of some ions, thereby accelerating snow melt. Conversely, SA proliferate during snowmelt when sufficient liquid water is present in the snowpack, and adequate solar radiation fuels photosynthesis. This study investigates the diversity of SA with focus on forest species and their role in hydrological regimes within forested high mountain regions and examines their connection to climate change impacts.

We analysed a historical database of SA bloom occurrences (since 1976) in the Krkonoše Mountains (NE Czechia), correlating these events with meteorological conditions – such as daily temperature sums over 3 to 5 days, snow depth, and solar radiation – to identify the predictors of SA bloom onset and development. Our findings suggest that SA blooms require prolonged melting periods to develop, and ongoing climate change, characterized by shorter winters and earlier, more frequent melting periods, may significantly affect their occurrence.

To further explore the relationship between snowmelt timing and SA occurrence, we established a study plot in the Labský důl Valley in the Krkonoše Mountains. Beginning in early March 2024, earlier than in previous seasons due to warm and rainy weather, we conducted weekly to bi-weekly sampling. Analyses included snow chemistry (pH, conductivity, major ions, total phosphorus and nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon) and ITS2 rDNA metabarcoding combined with light microscopy to monitor seasonal development of SA taxonomic composition and life cycle stages.

The overall objectives of this project are to evaluate the relationships between SA blooms, snow cover dynamics, and microclimate data; correlate SA occurrence with microclimatic conditions across a broader geographical scale; and develop models to predict SA distribution below the timberline in Central Europe. Our findings will enhance the understanding of the interplay between SA and snowmelt, contributing to predictive models of SA distribution. This knowledge will inform conservation strategies and improve hydrological forecasting in mountainous environments.

How to cite: Juras, R., Hejduková, E., Procházková, L., Man, M., Kociánová, M., and Nedbalová, L.: The role of snow algae in snowmelt dynamics in mountain forests, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17570, 2025.

EGU25-17859 | Orals | HS10.2 | Highlight

Do Trees Truly Take Up Winter Precipitation During Summer? 

Elham R. Freund, Maurus Villiger, Marco M. Lehmann, Zhaoyong Hu, Katrin Meusburger, and Arthur Gessler

Terrestrial ecosystems’ response to atmospheric changes (e.g., CO₂ levels, vapor pressure deficit) and the redistribution of water on land has drawn significant attention in recent years. Understanding the sources of water that trees utilize is critical for elucidating their adaptation strategies and resilience as precipitation patterns and seasonality shift in a changing climate.

Recent studies suggest that trees primarily rely on winter precipitation during summer (e.g., Allen et al., 2019; Goldsmith et al., 2022; Floriancic et al., 2024). However, the intercomparison of xylem water extraction methods for stable isotope analysis reveals substantial isotopic variation depending on the method employed.

In this study, we used cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD), the Scholander pressure bomb (SPB), and in situ vapor equilibrium methods to determine the stable isotopic composition (²H and ¹⁸O) of xylem water in Scots pine trees. Our research was conducted under a long-term (20-year) irrigation experiment at the Pfynwald, Switzerland. Sampling included plots with trees growing under naturally dry conditions (control), irrigated conditions (since 2003), and previously irrigated conditions (irrigation ceased in 2014 after 10 years).

Our analysis demonstrates that SPB measurements align closely with in situ vapor equilibrium measurements, while the CVD method exhibits a significant offset in ²H and ¹⁸O isotopic values. Furthermore, we show that conclusions regarding the seasonal origin of xylem water—whether winter or summer precipitation—are highly dependent on the extraction method used. If the choice of extraction method significantly influences conclusions about the seasonal orientation of tree water uptake, our predictions of tree responses to future shifts in precipitation patterns could be fundamentally flawed. These findings highlight the urgent need for methodological standardization to enhance the reliability of isotopic interpretations in tree water uptake studies.

How to cite: R. Freund, E., Villiger, M., Lehmann, M. M., Hu, Z., Meusburger, K., and Gessler, A.: Do Trees Truly Take Up Winter Precipitation During Summer?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17859, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17859, 2025.

It is of great significance to assess and project the respective impacts of land use change (dQ_Landuse) and climate change (dQ_Climate) on streamflow (Q) for water resources management. In this study, we used elasticity differential analysis approach and physical processes based distributed parameter watershed hydrological model to quantify the relative contributions that land use change and climate variability have on the decadal streamflow dynamics of the Chaohe watershed with the area of 4854km2 located in the northern China. Furthermore, the watershed hydrological model was applied to investigate the future hydrographic characteristics driven by downscaled precipitation and temperature projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three emissions scenarios. The result suggested that watershed streamflow, compared with the reference period from 1963-1979, greatly decreased during 1980–1989 and 2000–2008, whilst it slightly changed during 1990–1999. The insignificant streamflow change for 1990–1999 was due to the effects of lower soil water storage capacity than that of other periods on the hydrological impact of land use change. In addition, dQ_Climate for 1980–1989 and 2000–2008 were different between the approaches: dQ_Climate were almost similar to dQ_Landuse for these two periods according to eco-hydrological approach, whilst dQ_Climate from the differential elasticity-based analysis only 33% and 45% and from modelling 51% and 78% for 1980–1989 and 2000–2008, respectively. The future climate exhibits a drier and warmer trend in the summer monsoon period contrasting with other seasons in the watershed. Precipitation will decrease by 47.5–57.2 mm during the summer monsoon period while increasing annually. Future summer streamflow will decrease accordingly driven by increased evapotranspiration due to the rising temperature. An increased dispersion coefficient of streamflow also indicates more dramatic variations in summer than that of other seasons. The annual streamflow magnitude with a 5-year return period increases significantly (p < 0.01), indicating a reduced risk for future water shortages. However, the magnitude of streamflow will decrease with the prolonged return periods (p<0.01). Our study highlights the critical importance to interpret the hydrological impacts by different approaches with great care and to predict the seasonal variability of streamflow characteristics for developing adaptive resource management and hazard relief strategies as the hydrological impacts of land use change and climate change are temporally varied.

How to cite: Zhang, Z., Wang, S., and Cao, W.: Streamflow responses of land use and climate change in a watershed of Northern China: implications for adaptive watershed management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17989, 2025.

EGU25-18171 | Posters on site | HS10.2

Mistletoe Infestation in Conifer Stands: Implications for Forest Water Balance 

Anna Klamerus-Iwan, John Van Stan, Rafał Kozłowski, Paweł Netzel, Jacek Banach, Małgorzata Stopyra, Ewa Słowik-Opoka, and Josef Urban

Climate changes and biotic responses are increasingly undermining forest health worldwide. One such impact includes the intensification of infestations by semiparasitic plants like mistletoe (Viscum album L.). Mistletoe infestations can significantly disrupt the water balance of forest ecosystems, particularly in commercial forests. In 2023, mistletoe damaged 133.7 thousand hectares of forests in Poland, primarily affecting Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). This study examined the water-holding capacity of tree canopies in mistletoe-infested and healthy stands of Scots pine and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in southeastern Poland, where air pollution is minimal, and mistletoe presence was rare before 2019. Using specialized imaging software (WinRhizo® Regular 2021 and WinSeedle® Pro 2022), we quantified the surface area of conifer shoots, needles, and mistletoe foliage, while laboratory simulations under controlled conditions measured water retention capacity.

Results indicate that healthy Scots pine canopies store 2.6 mm of water (20.3% of simulated rainfall), while silver fir retains 1.5 mm (14.8%). Mistletoe on pine and fir canopies stores substantially more water, 3.8 mm (24.9%) and 3.3 mm (29.5%), respectively. These findings suggest that mistletoe infestation increases canopy water retention capacity by up to 15%. The dynamic filling and emptying of this additional 1.5 mm of water storage capacity by mistletoe-infested canopies could result in an additional 5-10 % reduction in water reaching the forest floor, emphasizing the ecological significance of mistletoe in altering interception and infiltration processes.

These findings highlight the need to integrate mistletoe infestation into forest water balance models, especially as drought conditions intensify. A deeper understanding of Viscum album’s role in exacerbating drought stress will enhance predictions of forest resilience and support the development of forest management strategies that safeguard water resources and the economic sustainability of affected stands

How to cite: Klamerus-Iwan, A., Van Stan, J., Kozłowski, R., Netzel, P., Banach, J., Stopyra, M., Słowik-Opoka, E., and Urban, J.: Mistletoe Infestation in Conifer Stands: Implications for Forest Water Balance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18171, 2025.

EGU25-18789 | Posters on site | HS10.2

Electrical self-potential signals in a temperate forest: seeking similarities between trees 

Nolwenn Lesparre, Damien Bonal, Pierre-Daniel Matthey, Alain Hernandez, Simon D. Carrière, Philippe Ackerer, Laurence Jouniaux, Damien Jougnot, Niklas Linde, and Benjamin Belfort

Water storage and flow in soils play a key role in forest growth by controlling the availability of water and, thus, controlling plants' physiological needs. Water circulation processes in the subsurface-plant-atmosphere continuum, however, remain difficult to observe and quantify. While punctual sensors presently provide information on local (centimetre scale) dynamics, integrative measurements capturing the dynamic of water exchanges at the tree scale are lacking. The electrical Self-Potential (SP) method is strongly impacted by water flow as ions transported by the water flux can induce an electrical signal as manifested by previous investigations on trees. Continuous SP measurements can be acquired with a relatively fine temporal resolution and autonomously. Moreover, the method is mildly invasive as it only requires the introduction of electrodes in the soil or in the sapwood. We hypothesised that SP measurements simultaneously acquired both in the soil and in the trees would show distinctive characteristics that could inform, in a complementary manner, about water exchange processes occurring in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum.

We monitored SP in a young spruce forest in the Vosges mountains, France (OHGE - OZCAR). We repeated the measurements (1) in the soil at different distances from a tree trunk; (2) on tree trunks by positioning close electrode dipoles; (3) on several trees from a same plot. The measured signals showed strong discrepancies among trees. We then analysed the characteristics of the signal frequencies by computing the wavelet spectrum, applying the variational mode decomposition method and performing a singular spectrum analysis... Indeed, variations of the meteorological conditions seemed to impact the occurrence of oscillation at given frequencies. For instance, daily oscillations disappear in the soil during rainy events.

How to cite: Lesparre, N., Bonal, D., Matthey, P.-D., Hernandez, A., Carrière, S. D., Ackerer, P., Jouniaux, L., Jougnot, D., Linde, N., and Belfort, B.: Electrical self-potential signals in a temperate forest: seeking similarities between trees, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18789, 2025.

EGU25-20582 | Posters on site | HS10.2

Quantifying Drought Stress in a Temperate Beech Forest Using the CropWater Stress Index derived from Thermal-Infrared Remote Sensing 

Stanislaus J. Schymanski, Richard F. Keim, Martin Schlerf, Jean-François Iffly, Christian Bossung, and Franz Ronellenfitsch

To gain a better understanding of tree vulnerability to drought stress, we need to observe when and where stress occurs. Established techniques tend to be limited by technical shortcomings in monitoring environmental and plant conditions at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. New techniques to overcome limitations are becoming available, but they must be benchmarked and tested in a range of conditions.

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing allows drought stress detection because down-regulated transpiration due to water shortage also reduces evaporative cooling of the foliage. The TIR-based crop water stress index (CWSI), which compares canopy temperature to expected temperatures in a well-watered and un-watered canopy, has been used to quantify drought stress in crops for many decades, but its utility in forests remains uncertain due to complex canopy thermal structure and narrow temperature ranges in humid environments. We used a combination of ground-based and drone-based data to detect drought stress in a young beech stand in Luxembourg, comparing continuous TIR data for individual trees using tower-based IR thermometers with dendrometer and sap flux measurements on the same trees. Our comparison reveals strong correspondence between dendrometer-derived tree water deficit (TWD) and the TIR-based CWSI computed for the same tree, confirming the utility of the CWSI as a stress detection tool.

We also put into perspective the CWSI computed based on continuous measurements with values obtained from two drone flights, in order to answer the following questions:

  • At what spatial resolution (leaf, crown, stand) can meaningful CWSI values be derived?

  • How to derive a suitable (unstressed) base line, either based on continuous data or the ensemble of data points in a set of images?

High resolution drone data captured substantial within-canopy variation and noise, but also non-physical results, compared to expectations derived from other data, established theoretical basis for crops, and a new theoretical basis for forests. Our analysis takes us another step towards the ability to quantify tree drought stress when and where it first occurs.

How to cite: Schymanski, S. J., Keim, R. F., Schlerf, M., Iffly, J.-F., Bossung, C., and Ronellenfitsch, F.: Quantifying Drought Stress in a Temperate Beech Forest Using the CropWater Stress Index derived from Thermal-Infrared Remote Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20582, 2025.

Recent studies show that incorporating leaf water potential and plant hydraulics into land surface models can significantly improve evapotranspiration (ET) prediction. However, direct measurements of leaf water potential are destructive and very sparse. This largely limits their use to constrain large-scale plant hydraulics modeling. Meanwhile, vegetation optical depth (VOD), derived from microwave remote sensing, is often seen as a proxy for vegetation water content. Despite its wide applications for understanding water stress impacts on ecosystems, the relationships between VOD, leaf water potential and biomass still remain unclear. This gap has hindered our ability to use VOD to constrain large-scale land surface models. In this study, we develop a physics-informed machine learning model to predict VOD from water potential, leaf area index (LAI), temperature, and ecosystem attributes. The model is constrained by soil constitutive relations that convert soil moisture into water potential. Global remote sensing datasets of VOD (VODCA V2.0 and SMAP MT-DCA) and soil moisture (ESA CCI V8.1) are used to train the neural networks. We further apply the Explainable AI (XAI) technique, SHAP, to interpret how different input features (e.g. LAI, temperature, and water potential) contribute to VOD variability, and reveal how ecosystem attributes impact the water potential-VOD relations. This approach enables us to systematically examine the spatial variations of VOD-biomass-water potential relationships and the critical roles of ecosystem attributes in modulating these patterns. The results can enhance the applicability of VOD assimilation into land surface models, and thereby further improve the representation of plant hydraulics and ecosystem functions in large-scale models.

How to cite: Feng, D. and Konings, A.: Determining the Relative Influence of Water Potential, Biomass, and Temperature on Vegetation Optical Depth Using Physics-informed Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20703, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20703, 2025.

EGU25-1391 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Electromagnetic Induction as a means to assess the hydrological impact of rewetting agricultural fen peat sites 

David O Leary, Patrick Tuohy, Owen Fenton, Asaf Shnel, Hilary Pierce, Mark Healy, and Eve Daly

Globally, there is an increasing focus on the rehabilitation of organic soils currently under agricultural management, particularly modified peatlands which are significant net emitters of greenhouse gases. These carbon-rich landscapes have been extensively modified through drainage and agricultural intervention, transforming natural ecosystems into agricultural production systems.

Traditional land use practices have involved drainage to lower water tables, enabling agricultural productivity but simultaneously triggering significant carbon emissions. A potential approach for rehabilitation of these soils is "rewetting" - a strategic intervention aimed at restoring hydrological conditions closer to the soil's natural state. Rewetting offers a potential nature-based solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously preserving these ecologically rich landscapes.

The primary objective of rewetting is to manage the water table to be, on average, within 30 cm of the surface throughout the year. This is conventionally achieved by infilling or damming open drainage channels that historically surrounded agricultural fields. However, a critical knowledge gap exists regarding the precise spatial extent and effectiveness of such rewetting efforts.

In Ireland, the ReWET project aims to contribute critical knowledge to emerging global strategies for peatland restoration and climate change mitigation on agriculturally altered peat soils sites. This is achieved by partial rewetting of several agricultural sites under various management practices, primarily cattle grazing, and subsequent monitoring of the impact of rewetting on several key indicators, such as water table depth.

Geophysical techniques offer promising methodological approaches to address the understanding of spatial extend of rewetting efforts. Electrical geophysical methods, which measure soil electrical conductivity, are particularly sensitive to water content and can provide detailed insights into subsurface moisture dynamics. Specifically, Electro-Magnetic Induction (EMI) surveys provide non-invasive, high-resolution mapping of subsurface electrical properties, which can correlate with soil moisture conditions.

In this study, EMI using a CMD Mini-Explorer 6L instrument was deployed several times on one ReWET site in Ireland, classified as a fen peat, to assess the hydrological modifications induced by rewetting interventions. Combining EMI measurements with advanced machine learning clustering, in-situ water table depth and soil moisture data, this study was able to identify the hydrological influence and extent of the rewetting, allowing for a quantitative assessment as to the efficacy of the rewetting operation.

Methodologically, this study demonstrates the utility of geophysical techniques in monitoring and evaluating field-scale hydrological interventions. The approach developed could be readily translated to other peatland restoration projects, providing a robust, non-destructive monitoring framework.

By quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of rewetting efforts, this research supports more precise, evidence-based approaches to peatland management. The insights generated are crucial for environmental managers, climate policy makers, and agricultural stakeholders seeking to balance productive land use with ecological conservation and carbon sequestration objectives.

How to cite: O Leary, D., Tuohy, P., Fenton, O., Shnel, A., Pierce, H., Healy, M., and Daly, E.: Electromagnetic Induction as a means to assess the hydrological impact of rewetting agricultural fen peat sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1391, 2025.

EGU25-4497 | Orals | HS10.3

Carbon fluxes and In-Stream Metabolism in a High-Altitude Tropical Peatland Ecosystem of The Andes Mountains 

Diego Riveros-Iregui, Keridwen Whitmore, Ricardo Jaramillo, Amanda DelVecchia, and Esteban Suarez

The importance of rivers and streams to the global carbon cycle is well established, and increasingly. research has emphasized the role of in-stream metabolism on carbon transformation within aquatic environments. However, while stream metabolism studies are abundant in northern latitudes, research on tropical streams remains notably scarce. In this study, we characterized carbon fluxes into and out of a small stream in a tropical, peatland-rich ecosystem of the Andes mountains. We measured dissolved oxygen, carbon dioxide, and discharge every 15 minutes at 4 locations downstream of a large peatland. Measurements were collected semi-continuously for a period of 12 months. CO2evasion was both measured directly and estimated indirectly for comparison. We used continuous dissolved oxygen to estimate daily ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP) throughout the study period using a Bayesian-based metabolism model. Our results unveiled both seasonal and event-driven patterns in carbon dynamics throughout the year. At the peatland outlet, the stream channel was strongly heterotrophic throughout the study period (GPP << ER), GPP averaged 0.1896 g O2 m-2 d-1, and ER averaged -1.862 g O2 m-2 d-1. ER and GPP were suppressed directly following high flow events, but ER rates rebounded to higher than pre-storm levels in the following days. Seasonally, rates of ER were highest during dry months of the year, but rates of GPP were lowest during the dry season. Aquatic CO2 concentrations were also elevated during the dry season, but discharge was much lower. As a result, we found the majority of CO2 was exported from the peatland during the wet season when hydrologic connectivity was highest. Taking together, our results provide much needed process understanding of carbon dynamics in understudied, high-elevation tropical catchments.

How to cite: Riveros-Iregui, D., Whitmore, K., Jaramillo, R., DelVecchia, A., and Suarez, E.: Carbon fluxes and In-Stream Metabolism in a High-Altitude Tropical Peatland Ecosystem of The Andes Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4497, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4497, 2025.

EGU25-4514 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Defining thresholds to peat smouldering in the Peat Moisture Code using hydrological modelling  

Sophie Wilkinson, Gregory Verkaik, Paul Moore, Owen Sutton, and Mike Waddington

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), and in particular the Fire Weather Index System (FWI), are tools used widely across Canada and globally for assessing wildfire potential and predicting wildfire behaviour. While the FWI system has been readily utilized across a number of different forest stand types, the use of the FWI system to represent wildfire potential or behaviour in peatlands has been shown to be less effective, especially in the case of smouldering (flameless) peat fires. This is, in part, due to the wide variation in peat properties and hydrological responses to meteorological forcings between different peatland types and hydrogeological settings within the same region. To begin to address this issue the next generation CFFDRS has incorporated a Peat Moisture Code (PMC) that better represents the ecohydrological feedbacks controlling peatland water table and near-surface moisture responses to fire weather. This new code, however, will still require interpretation based on peatland characteristics to best understand the potential for peatland smouldering fires to initiate and propagate. Here we utilized Hydrus 1-D to model the hydrological response to a drying period across a large range of hypothetical peat property profiles to quantify peat smouldering thresholds and to test the robustness of the PMC. Using the same fire weather inputs used in Hydrus, we determined the daily PMC (and Drought Code) value throughout the drying period. Using the soil water tension and moisture content output by Hydrus and the bulk density with depth input into our Peat Smouldering and Ignition (PSI) model, which uses a thermodynamic approach to predict smouldering propagation, we determined the PMC values that corresponded to varying levels of peat smouldering potential (i.e., surface ignition, moderate smouldering depth, and extreme smouldering depth) across the range of peat profile types. Finally, we mapped typical peatland types onto the “phase space” of peat properties to develop a tool for fire management agencies to best interpret PMC values and the smouldering potential they represent in the various peatlands within their management areas.  

How to cite: Wilkinson, S., Verkaik, G., Moore, P., Sutton, O., and Waddington, M.: Defining thresholds to peat smouldering in the Peat Moisture Code using hydrological modelling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4514, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4514, 2025.

EGU25-4544 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Ecohydrological Controls on post-fire Sphagnum moss recovery in Boreal Shield peatlands 

Maia Moore, Paul Moore, Alex Furukawa, and Mike Waddington

Northern peatlands are critical carbon sinks, and wildfire is the largest disturbance within the Boreal ecozone. The return of a peatland to a carbon sink and the post disturbance resilience of peatlands depends greatly on the ecohydrological recovery and reestablishment of Sphagnum mosses.

We examined post-fire moss accumulation and moss moisture stress (soil water tension, soil moisture) in triplicate burned and unburned Boreal Shield Sphagnum dominated peatland types (shallow, deep peatland middle, and deep peatland margin). Additional climatological and geophysical measurements were taken to identify ecohydrological controls on post-fire Sphagnum recovery.

The soil water tension exceeded 100 mbar (an established physiological threshold for Sphagnum) when the water table was lost from the peat profile, which only occurred in the shallowest peatlands. We found no significant difference in the moss moisture stress between the burned and unburned landscapes 5-years post fire. Depth of burn, remnant post-fire soil depth, and post-fire soil accumulation did not show a significant relationship with soil water tension 5-years post fire. Rather, current peat depth best explained moss moisture stress in burned and unburned landscapes, suggesting a peat depth threshold, above which Sphagnum drought resilience increases. Our ongoing research seeks to identify the critical depth threshold for greater moss resilience in a natural, disturbed, and recovering environment through Hydrus-1D modelling with the aim to provide researchers and practitioners information to maximise peatland ecosystem recovery through post-fire restoration.

How to cite: Moore, M., Moore, P., Furukawa, A., and Waddington, M.: Ecohydrological Controls on post-fire Sphagnum moss recovery in Boreal Shield peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4544, 2025.

EGU25-5116 | Orals | HS10.3

Hydrogeophysics reveals evidence for groundwater inputs influencing the hydrology and ecology of northern raised bogs 

Lee Slater, Henry Moore, Xavier Comas, Marty Briggs, Claus Holzapfel, Hadas Parag, Andrew Reeve, and Victoria Niedzinski

Northern raised peat bogs are usually assumed to be entirely precipitation-fed, implying that they lack groundwater inputs from underlying sediments. The development and persistence of patterned pools in raised bogs have historically been attributed to both surficial flow filling depressions along the peat surface, and subtle differences in peat pore water chemistry. In contrast, we find hydrogeophysical evidence that patterned pools in three northern peat bogs of Maine (USA) are partially fed by localized upwelling of minerogenous groundwater from underlying glacial sediments imaged using ground-penetrating radar. Paired point measurements of temperature and specific conductance (SpC) around numerous pools across the three raised bogs showed statistically significant relationships diagnostic of focused groundwater upwelling, despite hydraulic heads measured using nests of piezometers generally suggesting downward flow around pools. Drone-based thermal infrared (TIR) mapping, augmented by handheld TIR imaging, further indicated groundwater inputs into pools during cold and warm seasons. Surface water samples from upwelling zones showed elevated iron and manganese concentrations indicative of glacial aquifer sources.   Vegetation samples taken around two pools with contrasting groundwater inputs indicate that the composition of plant communities is associated with contrasting water chemistry. This supports the hypothesis that these inputs influence the vegetation within the raised bog ecosystem. Visual observations and information from shallow geophysics suggest that macropore, ‘peat pipe’ features might enhance vertical connectivity between groundwater and pools, and horizontal connectivity by connecting pools across the landscape.

How to cite: Slater, L., Moore, H., Comas, X., Briggs, M., Holzapfel, C., Parag, H., Reeve, A., and Niedzinski, V.: Hydrogeophysics reveals evidence for groundwater inputs influencing the hydrology and ecology of northern raised bogs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5116, 2025.

EGU25-5226 | Posters on site | HS10.3

Plants as indicators of hydrological quality in sedge-moss fen ecosystems 

Łukasz Kozub, Aleksandra Kukułka, and Mateusz Wilk

Mesotrophic sedge-moss-dominated fen ecosystems develop only under favourable hydrological conditions, the most important of which is stable groundwater discharge through permeable undecomposed peat layers. As a result of anthropogenic hydrological changes and landscape transformation, these ecosystem types, once widespread in temperate Europe, are now rare and conservation or restoration measures are required to maintain them. The success of conservation and restoration of these ecosystems is highly dependent on the ability to maintain or restore favourable hydrological regimes and soil properties. The assessment and monitoring of hydrological and soil habitat quality can be time consuming, costly and technically challenging. The concept of indicator species combines the ecological requirements of species with the possibility of using them as indicators of averaged, often long-term environmental conditions. However, selecting indicator species in a way that allows their widespread use is only possible if a sufficiently large and diverse dataset linking species occurrence with measured environmental conditions is available. In our study, we used vegetation data combined with hydrological and soil data collected from 46 plots within 23 fens located along a transect of more than 500 km across the northern part of Poland. On this basis, using the so-called Huisman-Olff-Fresco models, we selected species of vascular plants and bryophytes that could be indicators of stable groundwater discharge (low amplitude of water level fluctuations) and unchanged soil conditions (low bulk density of peat). The list of these species only partially overlaps with previously published lists of indicator species for sedge-moss fen vegetation known from the literature, and can be used for a rapid and inexpensive assessment of the degree of change in abiotic conditions within fen ecosystems.

How to cite: Kozub, Ł., Kukułka, A., and Wilk, M.: Plants as indicators of hydrological quality in sedge-moss fen ecosystems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5226, 2025.

EGU25-5298 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Effect of peat burn severity on peatland DOC concentration and DOM composition exported following wildfire 

Alexandra Clark, Colin McCarter, Alex Furukawa, Erik Emilson, and Mike Waddington

Climate change is increasing boreal biome drying, area-burned, wildfire intensity, and burn severity as evidenced by the unprecedented 2023 Canadian wildfire season (>15 Mha burned). Of particular concern in boreal wildfires are deep burning smouldering peat fires that can switch peatlands to net emitters of atmospheric carbon. Less studied are the effects of peat fires on water-borne carbon and the deleterious impacts on downstream water quality as the burned area recovers post-fire. To better understand the impacts of wildfires on northern peatlands, we investigated the effects of varying peat burn severities on the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) exported from peatlands located in Ontario's Boreal Shield ecozone. Using a paired peatlands approach with twelve peatlands of comparable size and catchment, runoff and water quality were measured within the footprint of the Parry Sound #33 wildfire (burned) and near Dinner Lake (unburned). Over three years (2021-2023), exported DOC concentrations decreased with increasing burn severity but the composition of DOM varied across burn severities. Spectral slope (SR), SUVA254, and humification index (HIX) were utilized to assess DOM composition. Lower HIX and higher SR values were observed indicating smaller, less humified DOM as burn severity increased. SUVA­254, however, showed no strong trends across burn severities suggesting that returning vegetation composition may have a strong control on DOM composition. Considering that climate change is increasing burn severity, the recovery of burned peatlands may play a large role in the export of DOC concentration and DOM composition post-wildfire.

How to cite: Clark, A., McCarter, C., Furukawa, A., Emilson, E., and Waddington, M.: Effect of peat burn severity on peatland DOC concentration and DOM composition exported following wildfire, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5298, 2025.

EGU25-5657 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Soil shrinkage effects on variably saturated properties and thermal properties of peatland-dominated permafrost mires 

Radhakrishna Bangalore Lakshmiprasad, Thomas Graf, Edon Morina, Valentin Kühn, Stephan Peth, and Ullrich Dettmann

Soil shrinkage significantly alters hydraulic and thermal properties in peatland-dominated permafrost regions. This study examines the impact of shrinkage on soil water characteristic curves and thermal conductivity drying curves in Storflaket Mire, Sweden. Seven peat samples were collected at three depths close to the surface. The HYPROP and WP4C devices determined the soil water characteristic curve parameters. The HYPROP device is a transient evaporation experiment that measures soil water potential heads and corresponding volumetric water content. The WP4C measures the dry-range soil water potential and the corresponding volumetric water content. The VARIOS device was used to determine the thermal conductivity drying curves of the peat samples. The shrinkage effects were accounted for by measurements taken with a vernier caliper, followed by validation using a three-dimensional structured light scanner under air-dried conditions. 

The results from the hydrological experiments showed that shrinkage effects were most pronounced in the deepest layers. Comparing cases with and without shrinkage revealed a 40% reduction in volume under air-dried conditions. The hydraulic conductivity curves showed minimal changes between the cases with and without shrinkage, assuming that tortuosity remains constant with shrinkage. Including dry-range measurements was essential for a more reliable soil water characteristic curve representation. Shrinkage alongside dry-range measurements showed that the pore size distribution shifts from macropores (300–3000 μm) to micropores (3–30 μm), indicating reduced bimodality with depth. This change likely explains the higher matric potential in the deepest layers. The results from the thermal experiments revealed near-linear thermal conductivity drying curves, with dry surface peat exhibiting lower conductivity than saturated deeper layers. Empirical models based solely on volumetric water content outperformed traditional parameter-based models in predicting thermal conductivity.

How to cite: Bangalore Lakshmiprasad, R., Graf, T., Morina, E., Kühn, V., Peth, S., and Dettmann, U.: Soil shrinkage effects on variably saturated properties and thermal properties of peatland-dominated permafrost mires, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5657, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5657, 2025.

EGU25-6103 | Orals | HS10.3

Local climate impacts from ongoing restoration of a peatland – the Onlanden Experiment 

Fred Worrall, Wiebe Borren, and Warner Reinink

We have shown that peatlands represent a cool humid island in their landscape context and that this cool humid island effect could be brought about by successful peatland restoration. However, it has been difficult to dis-entangle the controls on the direct climate impact of peatlands. Previous studies have been limited by a lack of pre-intervention data and the lack of significant target against which to test impact. The Onlanden, an area of peat south west of the city of Groningen, came under restoration management in 2012 when water tables were restored, but without active revegetation. The water table on the site was monitored before restoration and is ongoing and the area is . The direct climate impact of the restoration was assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature, albedo and vegetation indices. Furthermore, the impact was modelled based upon a forced convection approach. The study can show that day time temperatures over the peatlands cooled relative to the surrounding land by up to 1.1 K (°C), but there was no significant change in night time temperatures. But there was a more dramatic change was observed for the peatlands the average amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle decreased by upto 2.4 K (°C) over the period of the restoration.

The presence of an overall cooling effect means that a rising water table led to a lowering of the Bowen ratio. However, this result would suggest that open water would achieve an even greater cooling effect but would limit peatland development.

How to cite: Worrall, F., Borren, W., and Reinink, W.: Local climate impacts from ongoing restoration of a peatland – the Onlanden Experiment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6103, 2025.

EGU25-6329 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

A Novel Method for Determining Vertical Hydraulic Properties of Peat Using Naturally Occurring Pressure Fluctuations 

Raul Paat, Argo Jõeleht, Grete Sabine Sarap, and Marko Kohv

Peatlands are an invaluable part of our landscapes. To evaluate their interactions with underlying groundwater systems, the hydraulic properties of peat must be understood. Traditional methods for assessing vertical hydraulic conductivity in deep, compacted peat layers face challenges due to low permeability and sample collection difficulties. We introduce a field-based approach to determine vertical hydraulic diffusivity using naturally occurring hydraulic pressure fluctuations. Measurements were conducted at two peatlands in northeastern Estonia, using pressure transducers installed at various depths to capture fluctuations influenced by atmospheric pressure changes.

The vertical hydraulic diffusivity was calculated analytically from the recorded pressure data and combined with laboratory-measured specific storage values to estimate vertical hydraulic conductivity. Results indicate that deeper fen peat layers exhibit hydraulic conductivity values comparable to previous in-situ measurements, demonstrating the method’s viability for assessing the hydraulic properties of low-permeability peat. The method was also applied to calculate the hydraulic properties of the upper, less decomposed portions of the peatland. However, its applicability in more conductive peat layers requires further testing.

This observational method offers a practical solution for measuring the hydraulic properties of deeper peat layers, providing a way for a holistic understanding of their hydrological functioning. It addresses scale-dependent effects associated with conventional field methods, providing critical data for broader-scale hydraulic modeling and peatland management decisions. Furthermore, this method enhances understanding of peatland vulnerability to anthropogenic and climatic influences, supporting the development of strategies to mitigate hydrological disturbances in these vital ecosystems.

How to cite: Paat, R., Jõeleht, A., Sarap, G. S., and Kohv, M.: A Novel Method for Determining Vertical Hydraulic Properties of Peat Using Naturally Occurring Pressure Fluctuations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6329, 2025.

EGU25-6425 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Mapping and monitoring peatland soil moisture using drone-borne Ground-Penetrating Radar 

Maud Henrion, Yanfei Li, Kaijun Wu, François Jonard, Sophie Opfergelt, Veerle Vanacker, Kristof Van Oost, and Sébastien Lambot

The moisture status of peatlands is an important factor as it directly affects carbon dynamics. Therefore, it is critical to characterize and understand peatland moisture status and to monitor its spatial and temporal variations. This study aims to evaluate the potential of drone-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) in combination with full-wave inversion to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of peatland root-zone moisture. A secondary objective is to assess its benefits for restoration applications. This study was carried out on a 4.5 ha peatland in the Belgian Hautes Fagnes which was previously degraded by forestry activities. Ground-penetrating radar measurements were conducted every 2 to 4 weeks for 17 months, resulting in 19 peatland soil moisture maps with a 5-meter resolution. Reference soil moisture data were collected using ground-based probes to enable comparison.

The temporal variability showed an overall correlation of 0.71 between the GPR and the ground-based probes, indicating that this method effectively captures overall moisture dynamics across the entire study site throughout different seasons. In contrast, the spatial comparison of GPR with the ground-based probes showed a lower correlation, namely 0.23, which is attributed to the high micro-variability of soil moisture (on centimeter to meter scales) and the spatial mismatch between the measurements and their characterization areas and depths. However, we show that the spatial data contained high information content when applying a spatial clustering analysis to produce maps of homogeneous moisture classes. These clusters aligned well with other specific site characteristics, such as peat depth and vegetation composition, and can be used to support the planning of restoration efforts. This study introduces a new approach to studying peatland root-zone moisture and shows potential to guide and monitor peatland restoration strategies.

How to cite: Henrion, M., Li, Y., Wu, K., Jonard, F., Opfergelt, S., Vanacker, V., Van Oost, K., and Lambot, S.: Mapping and monitoring peatland soil moisture using drone-borne Ground-Penetrating Radar, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6425, 2025.

EGU25-6587 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Hydraulic Functions of Peat Across Types and Climate Zones 

Ji Qi, Sophia Weigt, Miaorun Wang, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, William Quinton, Dominik Zak, Sate Ahmad, Lingxiao Wang, Ying Zhao, Bernd Lennartz, and Haojie Liu

Abstract

The hydro-physical properties of peat play a pivotal role in regulating the water, nutrient, and carbon cycles of peatland ecosystems. Despite their importance and complexity, our understanding of peat hydraulic properties remains limited. In this study, we compiled a comprehensive global database of the peat physical, hydraulic, and chemical properties, including bulk density (BD), porosity, macroporosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), carbon content, and carbon density, encompassing tropical peatlands, northern fens, northern bogs, and permafrost regions. Our primary objective was to examine how these properties vary along a BD gradient across different climate zones. The results revealed a robust linear relationship between carbon density and BD for peat types with carbon content exceeding 35% (R2> 0.92, p < 0.001), suggesting that these functions can serve as reliable tools for estimating the carbon stock of peatlands. However, the specific functions differed between peat types and climate zones. Total porosity was found to decrease linearly as BD increased, while macroporosity followed a power-law relationship with BD. These trends were consistent across all peat types, underscoring a strong and reliable association between BD and both total porosity and macroporosity. Additionally, Ks exhibited a general decline with increasing BD, with the relationship characterized by log-log functions that varied among peat types and climate zones. This indicates that Ks is significantly influenced by the peat-forming vegetation such as wood, sphagnum, sedge, and the prevailing climatic conditions of the peatland. This study demonstrated that the key peat hydro-physical-chemical parameters—including carbon density, porosity, macroporosity, and Ks can be reliably estimated using the BD, with relatively high coefficients of determination (R2 > 0.4), highlighting the critical importance of determining BD as a proxy for estimating other hydro-physical properties of peat when direct measurements are unavailable.

Keywords: peat; physical and hydraulic properties; bulk density; carbon density; saturated hydraulic conductivity, permafrost peatlands

Corresponding author: Haojie Liu (haojie.liu@uni-rostock.de)

Phone: +49 (381) 498 3193; Fax:  +49 (381) 498 3122

How to cite: Qi, J., Weigt, S., Wang, M., Rezanezhad, F., Quinton, W., Zak, D., Ahmad, S., Wang, L., Zhao, Y., Lennartz, B., and Liu, H.: Hydraulic Functions of Peat Across Types and Climate Zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6587, 2025.

EGU25-6636 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Vegetation in the shadow of radiation: disentangling the cooling mechanism in a drained peatland ecosystem 

Vincent E. Flemming, Nicolas Behrens, and Mana Gharun

Peatland ecosystems play a critical role in climate regulation by storing carbon and modulating energy fluxes. During evapotranspiration, radiative energy is converted into latent heat, which cools the atmosphere. Ecosystem energy fluxes which are strongly influenced by climate conditions can be tightly coupled to CO2 fluxes through vegetation functioning. The relationship between carbon and energy fluxes in peatland ecosystems however remains relatively underexplored. Here we analyze eddy covariance measurements from a degraded raised bog in Amtsvenn-Hündfelder Moor (DE-Amv), located in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, to investigate the link between CO2 uptake, canopy conductance and energy fluxes. DE-Amv has been part of the Natura 2000 network since 2004, with its flora dominated by Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull and Molinia caerulea (L.) Moench. The dataset covers the entire year of 2023. We used the data to (1) examine the seasonal cycles of radiative and turbulent energy fluxes, and (2) evaluate the relationship between CO2 uptake and energy fluxes. To investigate the ecophysiological drivers of latent heat flux (LE), we estimated canopy conductance (Gc) by inverting the Penman-Monteith equation and modelling a continuous time series of Gc over the study period.

Our results showed that the mean daily peaks of latent heat flux ranged from 8.5 W m⁻² to 215 W m⁻² in one year, with LE being strongly influenced by vegetation productivity (i.e., Gross Primary Productivity, GPP). Principal component analysis showed that GPP, vapor pressure deficit, and net radiation are the key drivers of LE dynamics (r > 0.85 for all variables). During the vegetation growing period (March to October) Gc ranged from a minimum daily value of 1.2 mm s-1 in spring and autumn, to a maximum daily value of 15 mm s-1 in August. While Gc was primarily driven by relative humidity during the colder months, it was mainly driven by net radiation from June to September, and it was not limited by VPD or soil moisture.

This study demonstrates how ecosystem eddy covariance flux measurements can quantify the stomatal regulation of energy fluxes in peatland ecosystems. By highlighting the strong coupling between energy and CO2 fluxes, we emphasize the importance of understanding how environmental factors, particularly atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture, constrain Gc. Such insights are vital for predicting the effects of drier climatic conditions on the cooling capacity of drained peatlands, where vegetation type and management significantly influence their cooling potential.

How to cite: Flemming, V. E., Behrens, N., and Gharun, M.: Vegetation in the shadow of radiation: disentangling the cooling mechanism in a drained peatland ecosystem, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6636, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6636, 2025.

EGU25-7035 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Empirical analyses of the hydrological influence of a riparian wetland in the Montmorency Forest, Quebec, Canada 

Marc-André Bourgault, Yalynka Strach, and François Anctil

Riparian wetlands are strongly connected to water bodies and their capacity to provide hydrological services varies greatly over time. A better understanding of the temporal variability of this connectivity is necessary to improve our knowledge of how and when wetlands can influence floods. This work aims to empirically quantify the influence of a riparian wetland on floods in a small watershed located in the Montmorency Forest, Québec, Canada. To this end, 15-minute hydrometric data were retrieved from three Quebec government stations: one located upstream of a riparian wetland, one located downstream, and one located nearby in a control watershed with similar physical characteristics to the other two. With these data, a total of 229 flood events were identified between 1996 and 2022. The maximum flows for each event and the timing of each flood peak were isolated. Peak flow reductions and delays between the arrival of the flood peak for each flood event and between all catchments were calculated. Pre-flood flow, flood volume, total precipitation causing the flood, average water temperature during the flood and water level within the riparian wetland were used to explain the peak flow reduction patterns. The results show that the wetland reduces peak flow by a median of 27 % with a maximum reduction of 66 %. However, for some events there is an increase in peak flow after passing through the wetland. Delays in the arrival of the flood peak show a median of 135 minutes with a maximum value of 1300 minutes. Hysteresis patterns were observed between the river flow measured downstream of the riparian wetland and the water level measured in the wetland, indicating that the previous wetness of the riparian wetland influences the peak flow reduction capacity of the riparian wetland. Further hydrological and biogeochemical monitoring will be carried out at this site and will be used to improve our understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in riparian wetlands, which are still poorly understood. Any future results will be compared with results from several sites in the Saint-Lawrence Lowlands, Québec, Canada, where an integrated wetland water and carbon cycle monitoring program is currently underway.

How to cite: Bourgault, M.-A., Strach, Y., and Anctil, F.: Empirical analyses of the hydrological influence of a riparian wetland in the Montmorency Forest, Quebec, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7035, 2025.

EGU25-7081 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Water storage dynamics of boreal shield peatlands: Implications for runoff and peat formation 

Alex Furukawa, Mike Waddington, and Paul Moore

Northern peatlands are globally significant carbon stores that serve a number of hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical functions on the landscape, in close association with their water table (WT) position. While generally considered resilient to disturbance, thanks to autogenic feedbacks that regulate the WT, previous work suggests that not all peatlands are equal in this regard. That is, this ecohydrological resilience may vary with peatland depth and catchment size. There appear to be thresholds of peat depth, after which there are significant shifts in resilience, including the susceptibility of the WT falling below the peat profile and greater depths of burn from wildfire.

 

We investigated the role of factors at the peatland to catchment scale on WT behaviour across a continuum of peatland and catchment sizes on the Boreal Shield. While the mean WT depth was not associated with any such factors, WT variability was greater in shallower peatlands, with the effect more pronounced during seasonal moisture deficit. On the other hand, the role of catchment and topographic position was more seasonally variable. With respect to hydrological functions of storage and runoff, deeper peatlands always maintained their saturated zone and were generally more ‘filled’, leading to greater hydrological connectivity. While the WT in deeper peatlands more closely followed seasonal moisture deficits and surpluses (i.e., precipitation less potential evapotranspiration; P-PET), shallow peatlands experienced greater WT drawdown rates during drying events. This research contributes to a growing body of work supporting the importance of peat depth to ecohydrological resilience, and identifying the thresholds at which peatlands may accumulate sufficient peat thickness and feedbacks for long-term persistence.

How to cite: Furukawa, A., Waddington, M., and Moore, P.: Water storage dynamics of boreal shield peatlands: Implications for runoff and peat formation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7081, 2025.

EGU25-7267 | Posters on site | HS10.3

Underreported CO2 emissions in an oil palm plantation on tropical peat in Malaysia 

Monique Y. Leclerc and Gengsheng Zhang

Tropical peats are large contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and differ markedly from their counterparts at temperate latitudes. The rapid deforestation and subsequent land conversion of tropical virgin forests in Southeast Asia have been decried by environmental groups worldwide even though there is little robust scientific evidence to ascertain the net amount of greenhouse gas released to the atmosphere. Owing to the lucrative seed oil production, the conversion to oil palm plantations at a large scale further exacerbates the situation. This paper shows CO2 emissions in a converted oil palm plantation grown on tropical peat in northeast Malaysia. It discusses the various factors impacting the emissions including the wide range of tropical peat characteristics and the variability in the monsoon season. Robust eddy-covariance data show that during the Monsoon season, monthly mean carbon emission rate has 73-85 tons CO2 ha-1 yr-1 while during the dry season, monthly mean carbon emission rate arrives at 98-133 tons CO2 ha-1 yr-1.  

How to cite: Leclerc, M. Y. and Zhang, G.: Underreported CO2 emissions in an oil palm plantation on tropical peat in Malaysia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7267, 2025.

EGU25-8565 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Effects of rewetting on the evaporation of peatland meadows in the Netherlands 

Veronique Boon, Alexander Buzacott, Merit van den Berg, Laurent Bataille, Jim Boonman, Bart Kruijt, and Ype van der Velde

Decomposition of peat, caused by drainage to support agricultural activity on the land, results in land subsidence and high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To reduce emissions and subsidence in the Netherlands, and mitigate climate change, rewetting of peatlands by raising groundwater tables is seen as the most effective and straightforward measure. The Dutch National Research Program on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Peatlands (NOBV) was initiated to quantify the effects of rewetting measures on GHG emissions. However, the effects of higher water tables on water usage through evaporation remain unexplored. Freshwater shortages in summer are an already occurring problem and increased evaporation of peatlands due to rewetting potentially further increases this problem.

This study aims to quantify the increase in evaporation under wetter conditions on peatland meadows in the Netherlands. We have built a dataset with both evaporation and water table depth data, measured on five different  Dutch peat meadows in the years 2020-2024. Both transparent automated flux chambers and eddy covariance measurements are used to establish the water flux. Water management practices, and consequently water table depth, varied between sites. As a result, the direct effects of a higher water table on the amount of evaporation can be studied.

First results suggest that higher groundwater tables on peatland meadows lead to higher evaporation. Looking at yearly averages, evaporation increased with 5.9 ± 2.5% for every 10 cm water level increase. This indicates that rewetting substantially increases the water use of peatlands.

How to cite: Boon, V., Buzacott, A., van den Berg, M., Bataille, L., Boonman, J., Kruijt, B., and van der Velde, Y.: Effects of rewetting on the evaporation of peatland meadows in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8565, 2025.

EGU25-9312 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Examining the relationship between rainfall and water table position in grassland peat soils 

Hilary Pierce, David O'Leary, Eve Daly, Owen Fenton, Asaf Shnel, Mark Healy, and Patrick Tuohy

The artificial drainage of carbon-rich peat soils is a common practice to increase agronomic production on waterlogged lands but may lead to the release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. In Ireland, there are an estimated 300-350,000 ha of permanent grassland on peat soils, with varying degrees of drainage. 80,000 ha of these grassland peat soils are targeted in the Irish National Climate Action Plan for reduced management intensity which involves manipulating the water table by removing and blocking existing artificial drainage features. This process is often referred to as ‘active water table management’ or ‘rewetting’.

Actively managing the water table in grassland peat soils is an important tool to reach EU climate neutrality goals by 2050 because the water table position dictates the carbon storage dynamics of the soils. Research shows that raising the water table in these grassland peat soils by 10 cm can reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions from them. However, to achieve this, the impact that peat soil formation and subsequent anthropogenic activities (e.g., drainage and peat extraction) has had on the hydrology of these lands must be better understood.

The Irish Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine-funded project, ReWET, aims to provide a deeper understanding of the hydrologic impacts of active water table management on grassland peat soils. An objective of this project is to investigate rainfall and water table relationships at agricultural grassland sites on peat soils to: (1) compare these relationships within and across peat classification types, and (2) determine field scale hydrological patterns that can be used to aid in the classification of these and other sites into fen or raised bog peat types to establish future restoration potential. For this study, six field sites on grassland farms were selected and classified into peatland type based on their soil characteristics. The sites were instrumented with rainfall gauges and dipwells with pressure sensors to record the water table position every 15 minutes and were monitored from September 2023 through August 2024.

Results from this study show that hydrologic differences between and within peat classification types exist. For each site the annual average water table depth demonstrated that peat soil type has an impact on the drainage depth and that fen peat sites were more deeply drained than raised bog sites despite similar surface drain design. Rainfall event-based analysis allowed the sites to be compared based on total rainfall depth, water table rise, lag time from the start of an event to the highest water table position and calculated specific yield. The event-based analysis was also used to correlate water table rise with rainfall at each site and for each peat classification type. It was found that, overall, the fen sites exhibited a stronger correlation between water table rise and rainfall than the raised bog sites. The fen sites also had larger average water table fluctuations, longer average lag times and smaller average calculated specific yields during events than the raised bog sites.

How to cite: Pierce, H., O'Leary, D., Daly, E., Fenton, O., Shnel, A., Healy, M., and Tuohy, P.: Examining the relationship between rainfall and water table position in grassland peat soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9312, 2025.

EGU25-10511 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

A MODFLOW Field-scale Model to Estimate Ditch Blocking Impact on Peat Water Table 

Muhammad Malik Ar Rahiem, Bärbel Tiemeyer, Merten Minke, Ullrich Dettmann, Heinrich Höper, and Arndt Piayda

Drainage is the main cause of a lower water table in peatlands, resulting in high greenhouse gas emissions. To combat this issue, the water table in peatlands must be raised, one most obvious way is by elevating the water level on the ditches. This practice has been implemented in many countries with extensive peatlands, such as Germany, Finland, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. One question arises: how much is the water table raised in the peatland body after ditch water table was elevated?

To estimate the impact of elevating the water table in ditches on the field water table, we developed a field-scale model using MODFLOW6 in Python with the FloPy package. A physically-based model was chosen to account for different physical properties of peat and the underlying sediment layer, as well as topography and climate settings. The model was tested on a fen grassland field underlain by a highly porous sand layer in Gnarrenburger Moor, Northwest Germany. We used nationally available datasets as input, including elevation (DEM with 5m resolution), precipitation, and evapotranspiration data. The field size is 550m x 55m, bordered by ditches on all sides, and was dammed on two sides. A daily transient simulation was performed for 1,023 days from November 2020 to August 2023, and the model was calibrated using observational data.

The calibrated model results show an RMSE of 10 cm and a bias of 3 cm compared to observed water levels. We assessed the impact of ditch blocking by creating scenarios with and without ditch blocking. We found that by raising the water table in the ditches by an average of 31 cm (November 2021 – August 2022) and 30 cm (November 2022 – August 2023), the water table at the observation point was raised by 7 cm and 11 cm, respectively. For the entire field, the model estimate average water table raise by 20 cm (from -50 cm to -30 cm) and 23 cm (from -46 cm to -23 cm). If we only consider water table to calculate CO2 emission, this corresponds to CO2 emission reductions of 5.21 tCO2 ha-1yr-1 and 12 tCO2 ha-1yr-1. Sensitivity analysis, conducted by adjusting calibrated parameters by ±5%, shows that the ditch water table is the most important factor influencing the field water table.

MODFLOW only considers saturated flow, thus minimizing the requirement for parameters. This model requires only saturated hydraulic conductivity (vertical and horizontal), specific yield, riverbed conductivity, and initial head for transient simulation. In this study, all parameters were unknown and therefore optimized. Despite this simplification, the model successfully simulates the observed water table.

The model was developed solely in a Python environment, utilizing open-source software and nationally available data, making it transferable to other sites with minimal modification. The intention is to apply the model to more rewetted agricultural peatland sites in Germany, as raising the water table in peatland drainage has become a Federal Government program.

How to cite: Ar Rahiem, M. M., Tiemeyer, B., Minke, M., Dettmann, U., Höper, H., and Piayda, A.: A MODFLOW Field-scale Model to Estimate Ditch Blocking Impact on Peat Water Table, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10511, 2025.

EGU25-10961 | Orals | HS10.3

Modelling hydrological responses of a peatland to disturbance by geologic exploration 

Maryam Bayatvarkeshi, Maria Strack, and Scott Ketcheson

The slow recovery of trees in peatlands disturbed by linear clearings that arise from geologic exploration, also known as seismic lines, has spurred scholarly investigation into the underlying factors. The effect of tree canopy removal on the line on local water balance is one of the unanswered questions in past studies. Hence, this study aimed to provide insights into the impact of seismic lines on water balance components using CoupModel. Simulated values were compared with field measurements from a seismic line located in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. The simulations indicated an increase in precipitation, soil moisture and temperature, and snow depth on the seismic line compared to undisturbed conditions with results aligned with the field measurements. Simulations also showed that the snow density on the seismic line was 4.6 % higher than the adjacent natural area (herein referred to as offline). Furthermore, the predicted shallower groundwater depth on the line was consistent with the observations. Although simulated net radiation off the line was higher than on the line, the actual evapotranspiration (AET) on the line was 8.3% higher than off the line. It was also found that evaporation from moss is the dominant component of the AET from the seismic line and adjacent natural area. However, greater precipitation inputs due to reduced interception outweighed the high AET on the seismic line, so that the seismic line had higher water storage than off the line by 38%. Sensitivity indicated the importance of site location (i.e., latitude), soil physical properties, and leaf area index parameters in simulations.  As a consequence, the initial model of water balance necessitates future researchers to explore the impact of different seismic lines, particularly at the catchment scale, to better understand the cumulative impact of these disturbances on water balance in boreal ecosystems. 

How to cite: Bayatvarkeshi, M., Strack, M., and Ketcheson, S.: Modelling hydrological responses of a peatland to disturbance by geologic exploration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10961, 2025.

EGU25-12288 | Posters on site | HS10.3

The importance of subsoil groundwater table measurement in peatlands 

Lukas Vlcek, Jiri Kocum, and Vaclav Sipek

This study investigates groundwater table fluctuations within selected montane peat bogs in Czechia, focusing on their hydrological processes and the role of deeper subsoil aquifers beneath the peaty soil horizon. Montane peat bogs, such as those in the Šumava Mountains, are critical landscape components due to their role in carbon sequestration and as unique ecosystems supporting many species. While previous research often relies on near-surface groundwater table measurements, this study highlights the importance of subsoil water sources and their contribution to the hydrological dynamics of ombrotrophic peat bogs. Subsoil aquifers can significantly influence vertical water movement, including percolation and evaporation, whereas their absence may accelerate fluctuations in the near-surface water table.

The research also explores the implications of well penetration, perforation depth, and the connectivity of more permeable layers beneath the peat soil profile. Using manual and automatic measurements taken across various locations within the peat bog, the study provides a detailed analysis of vertical groundwater fluctuations, demonstrating notable variability across different vegetation covers and peat layers. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the hydrological function of peat bogs, offering insights into the interactions between rainfall events, groundwater behavior, and runoff response.

The study emphasizes the essential role of montane peat bogs in maintaining hydrological balance in the context of climate change. The insights gained are particularly relevant for peatland restoration efforts and climate adaptation strategies, as they underline the need for a comprehensive approach to groundwater monitoring that includes subsoil aquifer dynamics.

This research was supported by the GACR project 23-06859K.

How to cite: Vlcek, L., Kocum, J., and Sipek, V.: The importance of subsoil groundwater table measurement in peatlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12288, 2025.

EGU25-12415 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

From Peatlands to Boreal Lakes: Fill-and-Spill Hydrology and Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Transport in the Headwaters of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada 

Nicole Balliston, Grace Cullinane, Sarah Finkelstein, Alessia Guzzi, Julia Hathaway, Zou Zou Kuzyk, Keilan Ledger, Tim Papakyriakou, Maria Strack, Marianne Vogel, and Alex Litvinov

The boreal peatlands of the northern Canadian Shield in Ontario, Canada, serve as headwater systems for the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL), the third-largest peatland complex globally and a critical carbon reservoir. This landscape—shaped by a heterogeneous mix of exposed bedrock outcrops and low-conductivity glacio-marine sediments—comprises a mosaic of treed peatlands, post-glacial lakes, and river systems, which play a key role in regulating water and carbon fluxes to downstream ecosystems. Despite their importance, the hydrological connectivity of these peatlands and their role in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport remain poorly understood, especially in the context of changing hydrological conditions.

This study investigates the hydrological and DOC dynamics along two 400 m flowpaths that originate in peatlands and terminate at Tomorrow Lake (49°55'2"N, 80°41'59"W), a 2.5 km² post-glacial lake draining into the North French River watershed. In June 2024, five monitoring nests were installed along each transect, equipped with porewater sippers (30 and 50 cm below ground surface) and screened pipes at depths of 75, 100, 150, and 200 cm. Continuous water table data were logged, and DOC concentrations were measured during June, August, and September 2024. A meteorological station, installed in August, captured local hydrological inputs and outputs, providing a detailed view of seasonal variability.

Results reveal a complex “fill-and-spill” hydrological connectivity at the flowpath outlets, driven by variations in topography. In the steeper transect, water tables dropped sharply from <30 cm below ground surface (bgs) at the peatland center to >150 cm bgs at the lake interface, entering the underlying low-conductivity mineral soil. This suggests slow, diffuse subsurface flow as the dominant transport mechanism. Average DOC concentrations correspondingly declined from 33 mg/L in the peatland center to 19 mg/L at the lake edge, aligning closely with average lake outflow concentrations (16 mg/L) and indicating potential carbon filtration through the mineral soil. By contrast, in the flatter transect, water tables remained elevated near the lake interface (<30 cm bgs), and a pipe-like surficial flow point was observed at the outlet in June transporting disproportionately large volumes of water—up to five orders of magnitude greater than subsurface flow—while maintaining elevated DOC concentrations (35–40 mg/L). DOC concentrations at the outflow remained high throughout the summer. However, the discharge rate progressively declined as the water table levels receded, almost ceasing entirely by September.

DOC concentrations in Tomorrow Lake are comparable the median annual concentration in downgradient North French River (~19 mg/L) the larger Moose River that this watershed supports (~16 mg/L), suggesting high connectivity within this landscape. These findings underscore the need to evaluate hydrological and biogeochemical processes holistically, integrating headwater and downstream dynamics, while considering seasonal and interannual variability to better understand contemporary carbon transport, transformation, and the anticipated responses of these systems to climate warming.

How to cite: Balliston, N., Cullinane, G., Finkelstein, S., Guzzi, A., Hathaway, J., Kuzyk, Z. Z., Ledger, K., Papakyriakou, T., Strack, M., Vogel, M., and Litvinov, A.: From Peatlands to Boreal Lakes: Fill-and-Spill Hydrology and Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) Transport in the Headwaters of the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12415, 2025.

EGU25-13740 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Groundwater modelling for supporting sustainable water management to avoid water usage conflict in Lanoraie peatland (Quebec, Canada) 

Emmanuel Dubois, Marie Larocque, Julien Chene, and Jonathan Chabot-Grégoire

Wetlands, particularly peatlands, have historically been used for agricultural production, as exemplified by the Lanoraie peatland complex in the St. Lawrence Valley (Quebec, Canada). In this region, unlined artificial ponds located at the interface between the peat and the surrounding sandy substrate are used for agricultural irrigation. However, low water levels in these ponds, as well as in neighboring rivers, have led to irrigation deficits, especially during summer low-flow periods when water demand is at its peak. This situation poses the risk of water use conflicts and draining the peatland could irreversibly harm its ecological functions. A recent project assessed the impact of agricultural ponds on the hydrology of the peatland-river-aquifer system to support sustainable water management. A comprehensive monitoring program has successfully collected essential environmental data, including information on geology, river flows, and groundwater levels. Using these data, a groundwater flow model was developed for a small area of the peatland complex. The results showed that pumping from the ponds could partially dewater the peatland, thereby endangering its ecological integrity. Building on these findings, a new project aims to evaluate the hydrological and hydrogeological dynamics of the peatland, to assess the impacts of vegetation, water use, and climate changes on its hydrology, to develop indicators to guide sustainable water allocation, and to explore potential Nature-based solutions to mitigate the effects of pumping. Methodological advancements are planned to develop a modelling framework allowing to incorporate the impact of peatland afforestation while accounting for the high sensitivity of peat deposits to groundwater level fluctuations. The knowledge generated will directly support integrated water resource management in the region.

How to cite: Dubois, E., Larocque, M., Chene, J., and Chabot-Grégoire, J.: Groundwater modelling for supporting sustainable water management to avoid water usage conflict in Lanoraie peatland (Quebec, Canada), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13740, 2025.

EGU25-13948 | Orals | HS10.3 | Highlight

Quantifying Peatland Ecohydrological Resilience to Drought and Wildfire by Thinking Outside the Bog  

James Michael Waddington, Paul Moore, Owen Sutton, Alex Furukawa, Maia Moore, Greg Verkaik, Brandon Van Huizen, and Sophie Wilkinson

Peatlands are globally important long-term sinks of carbon, however there is concern that climate change-mediated drought will weaken their carbon sink function due to enhanced decomposition and moss moisture stress. Furthermore, heightened drought will also increase peat combustion loss during wildfire leading to peatland degradation and a potential ecosystem regime shift. Despite research developments on ecohydrological tipping points in semi-arid ecosystems, research in peatlands on the wet end of the ecosystem continuum has been “bogged down” (pun fully intended) by the traditional conceptual models of peatland hydrology and ecology. The consequences of this thinking loom large, given that northern peatlands face increases in the severity, areal extent, and frequency of climate-mediated (e.g., wildfire, drought) and land-use (e.g., drainage, flooding, and mining) disturbances, placing the future integrity of these critical ecosystem services in jeopardy.

In this presentation we explore the need for “thinking outside the bog” to quantify the ecohydrological tipping points to drought and wildfire. We argue that peatland ecohydrological resilience is a non-linear function of water storage dynamics and that water table data or peat moisture data alone are insufficient to capture this hydrological complexity. Given that the ability of Sphagnum moss to resist drought is largely a function of the rate of water loss by evaporation, the rate of upward water supply from the water table, and the water storage properties of the peat matrix, we suggest that ecohydrological resilience can be quantified by the magnitude and duration of the disconnect between the water table and near-surface peat. We discuss ways to measure ecohydrological resilience and explore simple metrics that reveal when critical tipping points have been exceeded and the implications this has for carbon storage and fluxes.

How to cite: Waddington, J. M., Moore, P., Sutton, O., Furukawa, A., Moore, M., Verkaik, G., Van Huizen, B., and Wilkinson, S.: Quantifying Peatland Ecohydrological Resilience to Drought and Wildfire by Thinking Outside the Bog , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13948, 2025.

EGU25-14974 | Posters on site | HS10.3

Simple approach for groundwater level modelling for wetland restoration planning 

Andis Kalvāns, Konrāds Popovs, and Aija Dēliņa

The restoration and stabilization of the hydrological regime is essential part in the peatland restoration for climate change mitigation – reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Essential parameter to evaluate the success of the restoration is the median water table depth. It can be derived from hydrological modelling, but fully coupled modelling is complex and time consuming. Here we report on a simplified approach to simulate the likely outcomes of the hydrological restoration of a temperate floodplain wetland in Latvia, Norther Europe. We subdivided the model territory into 10 m size gird cels and apply a one-dimensional water balance model with daily time step for each of the cells. The model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data derived from ERA5-land reanalysis and river water level from nearby gauging station. The groundwater filtration to the nearest ditch was calculated from water table gradient, assuming stationary conditions and using the water table as input from the previous model time step. The simple model can reasonably accommodate surface water pooling as well as timing of minimum and maximum water levels. In comparison to two-year period the model RMSE was 0.13 to 0.17 m while MSD -0.08 to 0.07 m. The simple approach can provide reasonable forecasts of management scenarios for restoration planning and carbon farming projects, without the need for fully coupled hydrological modelling.

How to cite: Kalvāns, A., Popovs, K., and Dēliņa, A.: Simple approach for groundwater level modelling for wetland restoration planning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14974, 2025.

EGU25-15948 | Posters on site | HS10.3

Advancing peatland water level monitoring by combining Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and peat-specific SMAP Level-4 data 

Michel Bechtold, Kevin Tansey, Harika Ankathi, Gerardo Lopez Saldana, Yara Al Sarrouh, Iuliia Burdun, Lucas Boeykens, Ullrich Dettmann, Fred Worrall, and Gabrielle De Lannoy

Peatlands are global hot spots of soil organic carbon, regionally important regulators of the water cycle, and provide several more critical ecosystem services. However, monitoring peatland hydrology remains challenging due to the complex surface properties and hydrodynamics in these areas. This study presents the development of a peatland water level product by integrating Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar, Sentinel-2 optical imagery, and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 (L4) product to advance the monitoring of peatland hydrology at high spatial resolution.

Our approach downscales the 9 km SMAP L4 product, which includes a specialized model parameterized for peatland processes, to 100 m using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, addressing the spatial variability of peatland hydrology. SMAP L4 aids in resolving ambiguities in backscatter-to-water level relationships from Sentinel-1, distinguishing between subsurface and surface water level fluctuations. Additionally, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the optical trapezoid model (OPTRAM), derived from Sentinel-2, contribute to resolving ambiguities of the Sentinel-1 backscatter dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of water level estimates. NDWI assists in the identification of open water surfaces while OPTRAM mainly adds information on the interannual water level anomalies. Our product is provided with retrieval uncertainty estimates for each pixel.

We present the validation of our product across boreal, temperate, and tropical peatlands using time series of in situ water level data and surface water maps from high-resolution optical imagery. Our preliminary results highlight considerable variability in the quality of the new product over different peatlands and biomes. We discuss how quality differences relate to site characteristics and the retrieval uncertainty estimates.

Our approach targets a scalable and transferable method for monitoring peatland hydrology, addressing critical needs in management and conservation. Understanding hydrological state variables is essential due to their primary role in regulating ecosystem services. While SMAP L4-SM may not be directly useful for stakeholders at the management scale, the downscaled product holds significant potential for management applications. This method could become an operational tool for researchers and practitioners across diverse peatland research and application fields. This work is part of the ESA WorldPeatland project.

How to cite: Bechtold, M., Tansey, K., Ankathi, H., Lopez Saldana, G., Al Sarrouh, Y., Burdun, I., Boeykens, L., Dettmann, U., Worrall, F., and De Lannoy, G.: Advancing peatland water level monitoring by combining Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and peat-specific SMAP Level-4 data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15948, 2025.

EGU25-18396 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Mapping of Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in Denmark utilizing remotely sensed indices and topography in unsupervised clustering  

David Terpager Christiansen, Julian Koch, and Guy Schurgers

Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems (GDE) can be broadly categorized as ecosystems where 
the vegetation utilizes groundwater for a significant part of transpiration and depends on 
groundwater access for maintaining plant health. The use of remotely sensed data for GDE
detection has evolved considerably in the past decade. Especially areas with a distinct dry
season have received much attention, as GDEs remain ‘greener’ during dry periods which 
makes dry-season NDVI an excellent indicator for GDE presence. However, for temperate 
GDEs, where no distinct dry season occurs, indicators suitable for GDE identification are 
currently lacking.  
Denmark is characterized by a temperate climate, which challenges existing GDE detection 
methods. To overcome this, we introduce two NDVI-based GDE indicators. Initially, NDVI 
dynamics of known GDEs were compared with surrounding ecosystems in a well-studied river 
valley containing cultivated and pristine peatlands with shallow groundwater. It was found 
that GDEs have a later onset of the growth season, due to soils being water-logged. To derive 
this NDVI-based GDE indicator, the average relative difference of NDVI between March and 
July from 2018 to 2024 was calculated for each cell. The second method uses the difference 
in responses to occasional summer droughts. The drought year 2018 resulted in large-scale 
wilting of vegetation in Denmark, but GDEs, being able to utilize groundwater, were more 
resilient. Thus, the summer of 2018 could be used as a pseudo dry season, and the difference 
of NDVI between 2018 and the average of the following 5 years was calculated for each cell as 
the second NDVI-based GDE indicator. Sentinel-2 at 10m resolution was sourced for 
calculating the NDVI indicators. The high-spatial resolution of the Sentinel data was critical, 
as the Danish GDEs are often small (below 1 ha), and found in narrow river valleys with 
considerable heterogeneity in land use and land cover. The two NDVI-based GDE indicators 
were applied together with topography-based indicators in different classification approaches 
to map GDEs. The tested classification approaches were based on a manual scoring routine 
and an unsupervised clustering. Their results were evaluated against more than 10,000 
polygons spanning ~110 km2 with GDE information derived from field surveying. It was found 
that incorporating the two NDVI indicators together with topography and depth to the 
groundwater table resulted in a very satisfying classification. The derived spatial patterns of 
the classification could largely be linked to land use, i.e. drainage of peat soils in the river 
valleys for cultivation or grazing.  

How to cite: Christiansen, D. T., Koch, J., and Schurgers, G.: Mapping of Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems in Denmark utilizing remotely sensed indices and topography in unsupervised clustering , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18396, 2025.

EGU25-18568 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

Improving water table interpolation accuracy using high-resolution LiDAR-based Digital Elevation Models from drone surveys 

Timothy Husting, Görres Grenzdörffer, Gerald Jurasinski, John Couwenberg, Mario Trouillier, Henriette Rossa, Milan Bergheim, and Daniel Pönisch

Introduction 
Peatlands play a key role in storing carbon (C), as in their natural state they act as a C-sink by maintaining high water levels. When peatlands are drained for agricultural purposes, they are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. The water table's position relative to the soil surface significantly influences emissions. While current field-based methods to model hydrology are effective, they often lack scalability, highlighting the need for innovative approaches to accurately derive spatial water table levels. This study presents a scalable, high-resolution methodology for deriving Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and interpolating water level measurements to classify water level classes. 

Therefore, we compared a publicly available DEM1 with a UAS (Unmanned Aerial System) LiDAR-DEM to quantify deviations from ground-truth elevation measurements. The primary objectives of the study were: a) to investigate the extent to which inaccuracies between the DEMs and ground-truth data can be quantified, and b) to evaluate the potential of UAS LiDAR-derived DEMs for deriving spatially distributed water levels using elevation data and gauge measurements. 

Methods and Materials 

The study was conducted in the Hechtgrabenniederung near Rostock, Germany (54° 6′ N, 12° 7′ E). High-density LiDAR point clouds were generated using a DJI Matrice 300 drone, equipped with an L1 LiDAR and processed into a DEM with DJI Terra software. Water level time series were collected from an in-situ gauge measurement at a location within the study area. To evaluate accuracy, the publicly available DEM1 and the UAV LiDAR-derived DEM were validated against ground-truth elevation data points obtained through Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) measurements, with deviations quantified using statistical metrics. Finally, kriging was applied to interpolate water table levels from gauge measurements relative to the DEM, providing spatially resolved hydrological insights. 

Preliminary result 

Preliminary results indicate that UAV LiDAR-derived DEMs offer greater accuracy and resolution compared to publicly available DEMs, especially in capturing heterogeneous topographic variations and temporal changes in peatland morphology resulting from deep drainage. The integration of kriging further refines the precision and spatial resolution of water table interpolations, enabling accurate derivation of water level classes. These results provide detailed insights into the temporal and spatial dynamics of peatland topography and water levels, particularly during transitional phases like post-rewetting. 

Conclusion and Outlook 

The application of UAV LiDAR-derived DEMs for mapping peatland topography and water table levels has the potential to significantly improve accuracy and precision. This methodology demonstrates potential as a scalable technique for deriving hydrological parameters, effectively bridging the gap between field-based water table measurements and large-scale hydrological modeling. Future research will extend this approach to additional sites and leverage the more precise water level classes derived from LiDAR-DEM to advance the G-E-S-T approach (Gas-Emission-Type-Site), particularly during transitional phases such as post-rewetting, where vegetation is not adapted to the site conditions. 

How to cite: Husting, T., Grenzdörffer, G., Jurasinski, G., Couwenberg, J., Trouillier, M., Rossa, H., Bergheim, M., and Pönisch, D.: Improving water table interpolation accuracy using high-resolution LiDAR-based Digital Elevation Models from drone surveys, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18568, 2025.

EGU25-18639 | ECS | Orals | HS10.3

Hydrophysical properties of ombrotrophic peat show anisotropic patterns along a degradation transect 

Raphael Müller, Enze Zhang, Bartłomiej Glina, and Stephan Glatzel

In previous studies we found that the vertical movement of solutes within water-saturated peat of Puergschachen bog is limited. Furthermore, it is evident from literature that the hydrophysical and chemical properties of peat are influenced by the parent material of peat (i.e. plant material and layering), land use and the decomposition of peat. The study site, Puergschachen bog (an Long Term Ecosystem Research (LTER) site located in the Enns Valley, Styria), exhibits different stages of degradation, ranging from slightly degraded peat (Center), intermediately degraded (Inter), and two more strongly influenced sites covered with Betula pubescens (Birch) and Pinus mugo (Edge), which allows investigations along a degradation transect.

The objective of this study is to address the following research questions: how do hydrophysical and chemical properties of peat vary along a degradation transect and to what extent does depth influence these properties? We hypothesized that the degradation of peat influences the hydrophysical (saturated hydraulic conductivity (kF), water retention (pF2.5), bulk density (BD)) and chemical properties of peat (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), aromaticity of DOC (SUVA254) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN)), and that these parameters vary with depth.

Hydrophysical parameters were measured under laboratory conditions using undisturbed peat samples from sites along a degradation transect in two depths (10–20 cm and 20–30 cm). For each site and depth, 5 replicates in vertical and horizontal direction were taken. Chemical parameters were measured for bog water sampled seasonally in 4 depths (10–20, 35–45, 60–70 and 85–95 cm). A non-parametric Man-Whitney-Test was used to test for significant differences between groups.

Our results revealed that BD differed significantly between Center (0.053 ± 0.011 (mean ± SD)) and Birch (0.071 ± 0.023) and Edge (0.076 ± 0.014 g cm-3) and were generally slightly higher in upper horizons (10–20 cm). kF measurements showed that horizontal and vertical flow directions differ between sites as an anisotropic behavior of peat with higher horizontal conductivities in the upper (10–20 cm) and lower (20–30 cm) horizons for Center and Birch and higher vertical conductivities (both depths) for Edge, was observed. Water retentions at pF2.5 differed between sites and depths and were generally higher for deeper horizons, indicating reduced pore sizes, binding water stronger in pores. Also, differences between horizons were highest for Edge peat. Birch showed the highest DOC concentrations together with the highest aromaticity. DOC concentrations decreased with depth at all sites, while TDN and SUVA254 showed no constant depth-related pattern.

Our results indicate that water and solute transport through peat is linked with peat degradation, which inhibits or allows movement within the soil. As shown, hydraulic conductivities can develop highly heterogeneous and anisotropic patterns of directional movement. Further studies are needed to assess the extent to which these heterogeneous hydrophysical properties affect solute transport and how this might influence peat decomposition processes.

How to cite: Müller, R., Zhang, E., Glina, B., and Glatzel, S.: Hydrophysical properties of ombrotrophic peat show anisotropic patterns along a degradation transect, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18639, 2025.

EGU25-19625 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.3

High-Resolution Mapping of Peatland Water Table Depth Using Innovative Multi-Level Downscaling of SMAP Data  

Hamidreza Rahimi, Ali Saidian, Laurie Friday, Toktam Hatamisengeli, and David Coomes

The Water Table Depth (WTD) in peatlands plays a crucial role in habitats, agriculture, and CO2 emissions. WTD observations often face limitations in terms of record length and spatial distribution, which can impact modeling results. Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data, with its sub-daily temporal resolution, provides a valuable resource for WTD monitoring in peatlands. However, SMAP data with an 11-km spatial resolution is large-scale and requires downscaling to achieve finer resolution for detailed analysis. In this study, an innovative downscaling technique was used to convert the 11-km SMAP-WTD data into 10-m resolution. Employing a multi-level machine learning downscaling approach, the SMAP-WTD data is first downscaled from 11-km to 1-km, and subsequently from 1-km to 10-m using input data at corresponding scales. Elevation, land use, precipitation, and NDVI were used as independent variables, and the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm was applied for downscaling SMAP-WTD. The model's performance was evaluated using R, RMSE, MBE, and MAE indices, while the TRE index was employed to assess the importance of the model inputs.

How to cite: Rahimi, H., Saidian, A., Friday, L., Hatamisengeli, T., and Coomes, D.: High-Resolution Mapping of Peatland Water Table Depth Using Innovative Multi-Level Downscaling of SMAP Data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19625, 2025.

EGU25-20214 | Orals | HS10.3

Multi-stable isotope tracing of elevated sulfate export from a forested headwater wetland following an induced flood pulse event 

David O'Connell, Paul Coulson, Feridoun Rezanezhad, Angela Mills, Ana Lima, Hans Durr, Merrin Macrae, Chris Parsons, Sherry Shiff, and Philippe Van Cappellen

Flooding events following periods of drought can export large quantities of sulfate (SO42-) from headwater wetlands to surface waters, however the source and mechanism of SO42- release have rarely been studied.  Due to the projected increases in severity and frequency of summer droughts and episodic flooding events as a result of climate change, there is a need to better understand the nature of episodic pulses of sulfate from wetlands and their downstream impacts on water quality. In this study, we monitored the evolution of the concentration and isotopic composition of surface and groundwater SO42- in Beverly Swamp, a peat marsh area in southern Ontario, Canada, during a controlled field-scale flooding event. The event was created by the rapid drawdown of the upstream located Valens Reservoir at the end of a drought period. Up to seven-fold increases in SO42- concentrations, relative to the pre-flood background levels, were observed during the flooding of the marsh. Stable S and O isotope ratios were analysed in stream and groundwaters to investigate the sources of SO42-.

Following the flooding event, SO42- concentrations in the outflow from the marsh increased significantly, while δ34S-SO42- values decreased. The latter is interpreted as indicative of SO42- generated by sulphide oxidation (Schiff et al. 2005). Sulphide is likely produced by dissimilatory SO42- reduction occurring during wet conditions, with storage of the resulting sulfide minerals in the upper peat layers. During the dry summer, the sulfides are re-oxidised to SO42- and flushed from the wetland during flooding. Stable 18O-H2O isotope signatures identified water released from Valens Reservoir as the initial driver of the SO42- export across the wetland, followed by groundwater seepage from the deeper peat layers. Acidity increased shortly after the SO42- pulse, but quickly dropped down to background levels due to buffering capacity of the wetland.

How to cite: O'Connell, D., Coulson, P., Rezanezhad, F., Mills, A., Lima, A., Durr, H., Macrae, M., Parsons, C., Shiff, S., and Van Cappellen, P.: Multi-stable isotope tracing of elevated sulfate export from a forested headwater wetland following an induced flood pulse event, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20214, 2025.

Satellite remote sensing can potentially provide objective, broad scope, high frequency, and continuous measurements of inland water quality by capturing water colour information. However, challenges brought about by the optical complexity of inland waters and overlying atmosphere, and interference due to adjacency effects have hindered the development of valid Earth observation (EO) approaches for water quality monitoring in inland waters compared with the ocean applications. Water colour has been recognized as one of the most important Essential Climate Variables of the lake ecosystem, as it is directly related to changes in water constituents and almost all of the lake's ecological changes could alter water colour. Given the high retrieval accuracy from existing Earth observation satellite data, water colour, in terms of Forel Ule Index (FUI) and hue angle, can be a realistic indicator to track the long-term changes in the lake ecosystem and further explore the lake response to environmental changes. Through developing a global algorithm of FUI and hue angle for diverse types of inland waters and multiple source satellite datasets, datasets of FUI and hue angle for local and global lakes were constructed using satellite datasets. Lake colour have therefore emerged as a means to addressing scientific issues, such as the spatial patterns and long-term change trends of lake ecosystem, how water colour associated with climate change and local anthropogenic activities, spanning from local to global scales. Opportunities of leveraging water colour information observed from multisource satellite datasets in limnological research will be concluded and discussed in this report. We will also discuss in depth the challenges and possible countermeasures in estimating and reducing observation uncertainties associated with optical water types and multi-source satellite datasets.

How to cite: Wang, S. and Zhang, B.: Earth observation of lake colour dynamics across local to global scales: opportunities and challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20, 2025.

EGU25-308 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4 | Highlight

 Understanding Lentic water Bodies: Multiscale perspective and Socioeconomic Implications  

Pooja Singh and Basant Yadav

 Lentic Small Water Bodies (LSWBs), including ponds, lakes, and reservoirs, are crucial for ecological balance,
biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, their seasonal dynamics, nutrient cycling, and the influence
of surrounding land use and landscape patterns are often under-studied. Using integrated machine
learning and remote sensing tools, this study mapped LSWBs across India and analyzed their socioeconomic and environmental impacts in four states. Land use changes, especially urban expansion, caused
LWB degradation nationwide. Socioeconomic factors revealed disparities in development and LWBs across
states, emphasizing the need for tailored regional management strategies. Strategies proposed include
targeted pollution control in urban areas and incentives for sustainable agricultural practices to reduce
detrimental agricultural runoff.
Further, to understand the physio-chemical dynamics of LSWBs, this study examined seasonal patterns,
vertical stratification, and the trophic level index (TLI) in Haridwar district, northern India. Analysis indicated
that nutrient concentrations rose at inlets during the monsoon, and Chl-a levels increased near LSWB
edges, showing significant seasonal variations. Pre-monsoon, vertical stratification of pH, temperature, and
TN was observed but decreased during monsoon mixing. The TLI revealed a shift from oligotrophic (0 to 30)
to hypereutrophic (70 to 100) states, mainly due to agricultural runoff. The TN: TP ratio (< 10) suggests
nitrogen limitation drives algal blooms during monsoons, worsening water quality.
In conclusion, effective management strategies must address nutrient dynamics, stratification, and
eutrophication while considering environmental and socioeconomic factors. Additionally, long-term
monitoring and adaptive management strategies are essential to mitigate ongoing and future challenges.
 

How to cite: Singh, P. and Yadav, B.:  Understanding Lentic water Bodies: Multiscale perspective and Socioeconomic Implications , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-308, 2025.

EGU25-403 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Tide-controlled water exchange in the strongly stratified marine lakeZmajevo oko (Rogoznica, Croatia) 

Iva Dominović Novković, Marija Marguš, Tatjana Bakran-Petricioli, Donat Petricioli, Irena Ciglenečki, and Ivica Vilibić

Lake Zmajevo Oko (ZO) is a small marine lake (A = 9904 m2; V = 90692 m3) near Rogoznica (Croatia). The ZO is strongly stratified: An upper oxic layer with rich planktonic and benthic populations, a thin middle layer with high microbial activity and a deeper, anoxic layer. In the last thirty years, however, five sudden anoxic overturns have been observed in autumn, accompanied by progressive deoxygenation and mass mortality in the lake. The ZO is connected to the nearby Adriatic Sea through the fissures in the karst rocks. However, the possible contribution of this connection to the above-mentioned processes is still unclear. From 2020 to 2023, we conducted a series of opportunistic measurements of temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nutrients and sea level at sites in and around ZO, particularly in caves where optically distinct water layers had been detected. We found that attenuated tides enter the lake and influence the lateral boundary temperature of the upper layer by entering ZO as either warmer (winter season) or colder (summer season) water. As the salinity of the infiltrating water is between the salinity of the lake and the sea, it can be concluded that there is considerable mixing with groundwater. Due to the observed differences in salinity and temperature, this water could also influence the stability of the water column in ZO. We have also found that dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the upper layer fluctuate during the tidal cycle at sites with higher rates of subsurface water exchange. We plan to continue this research by conducting more detailed, targeted analyses to determine the role of karst water exchange in anoxia events and long-term deoxygenation and to incorporate this exchange into the numerical model of the ZO currently being developed. The physical processes forcing deoxygenation in small coastal systems (such as the ZO) need to be distinguished and quantified, especially considering recent climate change. This would also allow the definition of sustainable future maintenance practises, as the ZO ecosystem may currently be jeopardised by anticipated construction projects in Rogoznica.

How to cite: Dominović Novković, I., Marguš, M., Bakran-Petricioli, T., Petricioli, D., Ciglenečki, I., and Vilibić, I.: Tide-controlled water exchange in the strongly stratified marine lakeZmajevo oko (Rogoznica, Croatia), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-403, 2025.

EGU25-1301 | Orals | HS10.4

Effects of Two Distinct Monsoon Seasons on the Water Quality of a Tropical Crater Lake 

Maurice Duka, Leobel Von Tamayo, and Nino Carlo Casim

Paucity in long-term measurements and monitoring of accurate water quality parameter profiles is evident for small and deep tropical lakes in Southeast Asia. This leads to poor understanding of stratification and mixing dynamics of the lakes in this region. The water quality dynamics of Sampaloc Lake, a tropical crater lake (104 ha, 27 m deep) in the Philippines, was investigated to understand how monsoon-driven conditions impact water quality and ecological health. Located in an urban area with approximately 10% of its surface area allocated to aquaculture, the lake is subject to distinct seasonal changes associated with the Northeast (NE) and Southwest (SW) monsoons. NE Monsoon typically occurs from October to April while SW monsoon, from May to September. These monsoons influence the lake’s water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-α (chl-α), phycocyanin (PC), and turbidity, leading to significant seasonal variability. Monthly field observations of water quality parameters were made from October 2022 to September 2023 using a multi-parameter probe, YSI ProDSS, together with the collection of meteorological data during the same period. During the NE monsoon, cooler air temperatures and winds with sustained speeds caused surface water temperatures to drop from 30.9 ºC in October to 25.5 ºC in January, resulting in the weakening of stratification and eventually in lake turnover. This turnover redistributed nutrients from hypolimnetic layers to surface layers, increasing chl-α and PC levels (14-41 and 0-2 µg/L) throughout the water column. Fish kill was also observed during the lake’s turnover event as a result of the mixing of hypoxic hypolimnetic waters. Turbidity levels (0-3 NTU) were generally low but showed mid-column peaks in October, which was linked to thermocline-related effects, while low values in November followed heavy rainfall dilution and mixing effects. Conversely, the SW monsoon showed increased surface temperatures (28-30 ºC), shallow thermocline formations (3-11 m), and lower surface chl-α and PC levels (2-8 and 0-0.5 µg/L, respectively), likely due to limited nutrient mixing and more stable stratification. Turbidity was notably higher also in July (11-15 NTU) due to intense rainfall and reduced light penetration, which minimized photosynthetic activity. The SW monsoon also coincided with the typhoon season in the study area, resulting in partial upwelling of nutrients during strong storm events. These findings emphasize the need for continued monitoring of Sampaloc Lake’s seasonal water quality patterns, as monsoon-driven changes are crucial to maintaining its ecological balance and sustainability.

How to cite: Duka, M., Tamayo, L. V., and Casim, N. C.: Effects of Two Distinct Monsoon Seasons on the Water Quality of a Tropical Crater Lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1301, 2025.

EGU25-2009 | Orals | HS10.4

Laboratory investigation of seasonal circulation in a brackish lake subject to ice cover 

Edmund W. Tedford, Gregory Lawrence, Jesse Watt, and Jason Olsthoorn

Laboratory experiments were conducted in a walk-in freezer containing an open tank filled with brackish water (S=0.4 g/L). We describe the circulation starting with convection and cooling in the ‘fall’ when the air temperature was below freezing (-20 °C). As the water cooled toward the temperature of maximum density, we observed the decay of the convective currents.  Then we observed the formation of reverse stratification and the onset of ice cover. The salt excluded at the base of the growing ice generated salt-fingers that transported salt downward (Olsthoorn et al., 2022).

Five hours after ice-on, the freezer was set to 10 °C, and air temperature began to rise.  As the air temperature approached 0 °C, the salt-fingering decayed.  After the air temperature rose above freezing, the circulation was dominated by warming through the side-walls of the tank; this warming generated relatively fresh water flowing downward along the side walls to the bottom of the tank. This freshened the bottom of the water column and initiated inverse salt-fingers or ‘fresh-fingers’. After the ice melted, warming convection was observed.  As the water warmed toward the temperature of maximum density, the convective currents decayed. These experiments simulated the expected circulation in a brackish lake subject to ice cover.

 

How to cite: Tedford, E. W., Lawrence, G., Watt, J., and Olsthoorn, J.: Laboratory investigation of seasonal circulation in a brackish lake subject to ice cover, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2009, 2025.

EGU25-3316 | Orals | HS10.4

Dust-related heatwaves in the hypersaline Dead Sea and freshwater Lake Kinneret which were missed by satellite observations 

Pavel Kishcha, Yury Lechinsky, Isaac Gertman, and Boris Starobinets

Observations and model data showed a gradual increase in desert dust intrusions into the Eastern Mediterranean region. The role of dust intrusions in the formation of lake heatwaves has not been investigated in previous studies. In our study we focused on this point. In-situ buoy measurements showed that, in the two lakes located in the Eastern Mediterranean: freshwater Lake Kinneret and the hypersaline Dead Sea, - a severe dust intrusion (AOD of over 2.5 and surface dust concentration of over 4000 µg/m3) caused the formation of lake heatwaves (LHWs), as appeared in September 2015. This was because desert dust absorbed both shortwave solar radiation and longwave terrestrial radiation contributing to air heating in the near-ground atmospheric layer and water heating at the lake surface.

  At the water surface, for 10 days in a row (7 – 17 September), the LHWs were represented by abnormally high daily maximal and minimal surface water temperature (SWT) in comparison with their seasonally varied 90th percentile thresholds. The intensity of surface LHWs was as high as 3 oC. We compared satellite (METEOSAT and MODIS-Terra) SWT data with actual SWT based on buoy measurements. First, spatial distribution of METEOSAT and MODIS-Terra SWT showed that, over any part of the Dead Sea, SWT on dusty days was lower than SWT on clear-sky September 6. This contradicted the increase in actual SWT in the presence of the dust intrusion. Next, we conducted quantitative comparison between satellite SWT data and actual SWT. Our quantitative comparison showed that, in the presence of the dust intrusion, both orbital (MODIS-Terra) and geostationary (METEOSAT) satellites were incapable of representing the surface LHWs. Unexpectedly, in the two lakes, the satellite SWT retrievals underestimated actual SWT by more than 10 °C. This indicates the satellites’ inability to represent the observed LHW phenomenon. The obtained significant difference between the satellite-derived SWT and actual SWT can be explained by the impact of the dust-caused infrared (IR) perturbations on satellite IR measurements. This should be considered when using satellite data to analyze heatwaves in the presence of dust pollution.

  As for the subsurface LHWs in the two lakes, our findings imply the following significant point: the physical nature of subsurface LHWs in the hypersaline Dead Sea is essentially different from that of subsurface LHWs in fresh-water lakes. This is because double-diffusive processes are thought to be essential to the formation of abnormal vertical temperature distribution at a depth from 5 m to 20 m causing the development of subsurface LHWs.

   Reference: Kishcha et al., Remote Sensing 2024, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132314

How to cite: Kishcha, P., Lechinsky, Y., Gertman, I., and Starobinets, B.: Dust-related heatwaves in the hypersaline Dead Sea and freshwater Lake Kinneret which were missed by satellite observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3316, 2025.

EGU25-3778 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

A framework for stabilizing deep-water oxygen under future climate change 

Mahtab Yaghouti, Ana I. Ayala, Jorrit Mesman, Don Pierson, Tom Shatwell, Lipa Gutani T Nkwalale, Karsten Rinke, Eleanor Jennings, Peter Hunter, R. Iestyn Woolway, and Ian D. Jones

The deoxygenation of deep-water during summer stratification presents a significant challenge for lake ecosystems, further exacerbated by climate change. To better understand future oxygen dynamics and evaluate mitigation strategies, we developed a simple 1-D model that incorporates water-column and sediment oxygen consumption, as well as vertical mixing. This model estimates deep-water oxygen profiles during summer stratification based on temperature profiles, bathymetry and oxygen depletion parameters. We apply the model to Lake Erken in Sweden, achieving an RMSE of less than 1 mg L-1 and an average oxygen demand of 0.55 mg L-1 d-1. Projected water temperature and diffusivity from a hydrodynamic model were used to drive the oxygen model under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Climate projections indicate from 2020 to 2099, the deep-water annual anoxic (<0.5 mg L-1) period will increase by 21 days under RCP 6.0 and 32 days under RCP 8.5. Extended stratification periods, ranging from 1 to 5 days per decade, emerge as the key driver of future deoxygenation. To maintain current oxygen levels by the end of this century, oxygen consumption rates would need to be reduced by approximately 20% under RCP 6.0 and 30% under RCP 8.5. Ensuring oxygen stability is crucial for preventing further water quality degradation and protecting fish habitats. Our approach offers a transferable, data-efficient framework for climate-adaptive eutrophication management.

How to cite: Yaghouti, M., Ayala, A. I., Mesman, J., Pierson, D., Shatwell, T., Gutani T Nkwalale, L., Rinke, K., Jennings, E., Hunter, P., Woolway, R. I., and D. Jones, I.: A framework for stabilizing deep-water oxygen under future climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3778, 2025.

EGU25-4038 | Orals | HS10.4

Oxygen dynamics in a stratified clearwater lake: hourly to decadal timescales 

Robert Schwefel, Sylvia Jordan, and Michael Hupfer

Lake Stechlin (A = 4.3 km2, mean depth = 23.3 m, max depth = 69.5 m, V = 96.9 × 106 m3) is a deep clearwater lake situated in northern Germany. Formerly known for its excellent water quality, the lake experienced severe increases in total phosphorus (P) concentrations between 2014 and 2020, most likely related to shifts in the macrophyte communities in the shallow sediments and associated P mobilisation. After 2020, P levels began to decrease again. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations followed these changes: the DO depletion rate increased from 0.4-0.6 g/m2/d in the pre-eutrophication period to more than 1 g/m2/d during 2019-2021, before starting to decrease again afterwards. Consequently, large areas of the deep hypolimnion became anoxic.

Here we present long-term monitoring data combined with results from two high-resolution measurement campaigns of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), and current velocities near the lake sediment at three different depths (45 m, 50 m, and 55 m). During the beginning of the measurements in summer, DO concentrations were comparable or even slightly higher in 2024 compared to 2023. In the fall, anoxic conditions occurred 1 meter above the sediment at all three depths in 2023 but not in 2024, when phosphorus concentrations were considerably lower. We attribute the higher DO concentrations during summer 2024 compared to 2023 to an earlier onset of summer stratification and the lower concentrations during fall 2023 to lower depletion rates in response to decreasing nutrient concentrations. In both years, oxygen fluctuations with amplitudes of up to 4 mg/L were observed and caused by internal waves with periods of approximately 24 h and 6-8 h. Especially in 2023, the sediments experienced periodically changing redox conditions during fall at all three measurement depths. The impact of these fluctuations is still unknown although large fractions of the lake sediments are situated in areas that can potentially become periodically anoxic in Lake Stechlin and other lakes worldwide.

The results illustrate extensive areas of Lake Stechlin experience periodic anoxia, which cannot be detected by monthly routine measurements. The also indicate that oxygen depletion rates respond quickly to changes in the nutrient concentrations. Oxygen concentrations are influenced by multiple factors such as varying nutrient concentrations and differences in the stratification phenology due to meteorological conditions.  For reliable future prediction of oxygen budgets, a good mechanistic understanding of their influence is desirable.

How to cite: Schwefel, R., Jordan, S., and Hupfer, M.: Oxygen dynamics in a stratified clearwater lake: hourly to decadal timescales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4038, 2025.

EGU25-4218 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

A sub-continental scale assessment of lake-climate interactions in sub-Sahelian Africa 

Marina Amadori, Anna Joelle Greife, Laura Carrea, Elisa Calamita, Iestyn Woolway, and Monica Pinardi

Africa is considered to be extremely vulnerable to climate change despite contributing little, and yet this vulnerability does not resonate with the breath or depth of research on the region, particularly regarding its inland freshwater systems. While lakes support million of livelihoods through several water uses supply, limnological studies in Sub-Sahelian Africa have largely focused on a few well-studied lakes, leaving vast regions underexplored.

 

Existing global studies on climate-change impacts on lake water quality and freshwater availability often operate at broad scales. However, such efforts rarely address sub-continental heterogeneity or provide the foundational climatological baselines. The first step of any global-scale study is the definition of the average seasonal behavior of any geophysical or geochemical variable considered. This being just an intermediate step towards more advanced analysis (e.g. detection of trends and anomalies, extremes detection), the climatology itself has generally received little attention. In ungauged regions where local in-situ data are scarce, identifying the drivers of ecological shifts is more challenging as a knowledge base on the average or past conditions of the lake is unavailable.

 

In this study, we present the first atlas of lake functioning across sub-Sahelian Africa, identifying regional clusters of climate and ecological analogs. We analyze the interplay between lakes and their surrounding environment -encompassing both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. Our results reveal three main regions of analogous lake functioning, where key climatic drivers interact with lake response in terms of water availability and water quality. These interactions are shaped by overarching processes (such as large-scale atmospheric circulation) as well as lake-specific conditions, such as morphological characteristics, climatic zones, human pressures like land use and population density.

By exploring the potential role of remote sensing to overcome data scarcity in sub-Sahelian African lakes, our study provides the first multivariate assessment of average lake-climate interactions and provides a baseline for future research in this region, in support of an informed monitoring of the lakes, a more sustainable management of water resources, and climate risk mitigation actions.

How to cite: Amadori, M., Greife, A. J., Carrea, L., Calamita, E., Woolway, I., and Pinardi, M.: A sub-continental scale assessment of lake-climate interactions in sub-Sahelian Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4218, 2025.

EGU25-4270 | Orals | HS10.4

Future droughts and floods in Lake Titicaca cannot be prevented by release management alone 

Nilo Lima-Quispe, Denis Ruelland, and Thomas Condom

Lake Titicaca, located in the tropical Andes of South America and shared by Peru and Bolivia, has experienced extreme variations in water levels, leading to droughts and floods over the last 50 years. In the early 1990s, a master plan was developed, proposing the construction of a gate to regulate the lake's outflows and mitigate hydrological risks. While the gate was completed in the early 2000s, regulation was never implemented due to a lack of management agreement between the two countries. The effectiveness of the operating rules for managing hydrological risks under ongoing climate change remains unknown. To address this issue, we used an integrated water balance model to evaluate both natural and regulated release options under observed climate conditions (1982–2016) and future scenarios of precipitation and air temperature. Future climates were generated using the perturbation method based on changes projected by 21 GCMs from CMIP6 for the period 2036–2070. Drought was defined as a drop in water levels (and associated released flows) below a threshold linked to downstream irrigation requirements. Flooding was defined as the condition when water levels (and associated released flows) exceed the flooding threshold in the shore zone of the lake. The risks were evaluated in terms of their intensity, duration, and frequency using appropriate indicators.  Under a projected warming of 3.4 °C (as suggested by an ensemble of GCMs by 2050) and no changes in precipitation, the lake's water levels could drop below the outlet level, disconnecting it from the Desaguadero River. Regulation under observed climate conditions reduces risks in the shore zone and downstream areas. However, under future climate scenarios, regulation is likely to be less effective. In the Warm–Dry, Hot–Dry, ensemble mean scenarios, more intense and prolonged droughts are expected, while in the Warm–Wet and Hot–Wet scenarios, the risk of flooding could increase significantly. The differences in the effectiveness of natural and regulated release options are minimal. This suggests that managing releases alone will be insufficient to mitigate hydrological risks under future climate conditions. These findings provide valuable insights for improving management and guiding the identification of additional intervention measures, such as land-use planning, to ensure Lake Titicaca's resilience to future droughts and floods.

How to cite: Lima-Quispe, N., Ruelland, D., and Condom, T.: Future droughts and floods in Lake Titicaca cannot be prevented by release management alone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4270, 2025.

EGU25-4281 | Posters on site | HS10.4

Temperatures and hydrodynamics during early winter in ice-covered lakes 

Robert Schwefel and Sally MacIntyre

Arctic ice-covered lakes are often considered to be quiescent systems as they are insulated from direct effects of  sunlight and wind over extended periods of time. However, water circulation is driven by gravity currents resulting from sediment heat fluxes and wind-driven oscillations of the ice-cover cause considerable internal waves. Depending on the thickness of the snow cover, penetrative convection in fall can occur as long as sunlight is present. All these drivers of lake hydrodynamics  are most influential in early winter when heat stored during summer is remaining in the sediments and the ice and snow cover remains thin.

Here we present multi-year measurements of under-ice temperatures and oxygen concentrations in five Arctic lakes with maximal depths ranging from 3 to 27 m and surface areas from 1 to 150 ha. The focus is on the period of early winter from the beginning of the ice-covered period to approximately 30 days after ice-on. During early winter, temperatures varied between 1 and 3.7°C and depended on summer temperatures and meteorological conditions preceding ice-on. Sediment heat fluxes of several W/m2 drove gravity currents with velocities in the order of several mm/s.  Oxygen depletion was higher in early winter compared to late winter periods but lowered in early winter periods with penetrative convection occurring.

In summary, the results show a high interannual variability and variability between lakes in early winter temperatures, gravity currents and oxygen depletion rates all of which depending on meteorological conditions and lake morphometry.

How to cite: Schwefel, R. and MacIntyre, S.: Temperatures and hydrodynamics during early winter in ice-covered lakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4281, 2025.

EGU25-4555 | Orals | HS10.4

Thermal mixing patterns in Lake Ontario as revealed by novel year-round observations of thermal stratification 

Mathew Wells, Tim Johnson, Rylie Robinson, Jon Midwood, Sarah Larouque, Adam Eddie, Brian O'Malley, Kyle Morton, and Dimistry Gorsky

Year-round records of thermal stratification in the Great Lakes are rare, and there are few observations of thermal stratification during winter. In this paper we analyze temperature data from 13 temperature logger chains and from over 130 benthic acoustic receivers that were deployed across Lake Ontario for two years. The timing and duration of the fall overturn correlates with the local average water depth, and shallow sites (<50 m depth) overturn up to a month before deep sites (> 100 m depths). Likewise, in spring the shallow sites warm faster. Lake Ontario has partial ice cover, so wind driven mixing stirs the water column throughout winter and inverse thermal stratification is largely absent. The depth-averaged winter water temperatures vary between 0 – 4oC, with the coldest temperatures (near 0.1oC) found in the shallow Kingston basin, and warmest temperatures (near 4oC) at sites near the 244 m deep Rochester Basin. Lake Ontario appears to be a warm monomictic lake, rather than having a dimictic mixing pattern – there is no sustained ice cover or inverse stratification that inhibits vertical mixing in winter. Winter is a poorly understood season for many aquatic processes, including fish bioenergetics, fish distribution, biochemical processes, invertebrate distribution and production. Moreover, lack of knowledge of winter has hampered the use of correct initial conditions for running large lake hydrodynamic models. We discuss the implications of these 2-year observations of thermal stratification in Lake Ontario for interpreting fish habitat usage and fish reproductive phenology and for fisheries management.

How to cite: Wells, M., Johnson, T., Robinson, R., Midwood, J., Larouque, S., Eddie, A., O'Malley, B., Morton, K., and Gorsky, D.: Thermal mixing patterns in Lake Ontario as revealed by novel year-round observations of thermal stratification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4555, 2025.

EGU25-5073 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

New Source-Transfer-Sink Analytical Framework for Dynamic Tracking of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flows and Changes in Watersheds 

Xiang Cheng, Yue Dong, Yu Li, and Shengrui Wang

  Unhealthy nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows are key drivers of watershed eutrophication and ecosystem degradation, posing significant risks to water quality and environmental sustainability. Existing analytical methods fail to capture the complex interactions of nutrient flows between sources, pathways, and sinks, particularly the interplay between environmental and socio-economic factors. To address these challenges, we developed a novel Source-Transfer-Sink (STS) analytical framework that integrates Substance Flow Analysis (SFA), the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), and high-resolution geospatial technologies. This framework enables comprehensive and dynamic tracking of N and P sources, transfer pathways, and sinks within watersheds, providing critical support for enhanced nutrient management and policy formulation. The STS framework was applied to the Erhai Lake watershed in China, an ecologically sensitive region increasingly threatened by agricultural intensification, urbanization, and eutrophication. The results reveal that over the past 23 years, nutrient dynamics in the watershed have undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a high-input, low-cycling, high-emission model (2000-2013) to a low-input, high-cycling, low-emission model (2014-2022). In 2000-2013, excessive use of chemical fertilizers and improper management of livestock manure resulted in severe environmental losses. By 2022, the implementation of green development policies and strengthened environmental protection efforts increased nitrogen recycling by 64.47% and phosphorus recycling by 63.89%, while overall losses decreased sharply, with nitrogen and phosphorus emissions reduced by 68% and 77%, respectively. Spatial analysis identified nutrient hotspots, primarily concentrated in rural and farmland areas in the northern and western regions (especially Niujie Township and Yinqiao Town), where these areas experience the highest nutrient loss through runoff. By 2022, the nutrient loss intensity in these hotspot areas had significantly decreased and become more homogeneous. Urban areas benefited from advanced wastewater treatment technologies, which reduced nitrogen and phosphorus discharges into surface waters. This study provides a broader and more applicable Source-Transfer-Sink (STS) analytical framework for characterizing nitrogen and phosphorus cycling across watershed systems. It offers methodological support and policy insights for large lakes in rapidly developing regions or countries, enabling a clear presentation of nutrient flow structures and the sustainable management of nitrogen and phosphorus resources.

How to cite: Cheng, X., Dong, Y., Li, Y., and Wang, S.: New Source-Transfer-Sink Analytical Framework for Dynamic Tracking of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flows and Changes in Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5073, 2025.

EGU25-6179 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

How to improve global lake water temperature projections: findings from calibrating 4 lake temperature models to 73 lakes 

Johannes Feldbauer, Jorrit P. Mesman, Tobias K. Andersen, Robert Ladwig, and Thomas Petzoldt

Global warming is impacting lakes and reservoirs through change in the water temperature and thermal stratification which are affecting ecosystem processes like nutrient recycling that can fuel re-eutrophication or increase methane emission. To quantify these impacts and plan mitigation strategies, process-based projections of water temperature and stratification are needed. For projections on individual lakes, these models are usually calibrated using historic water temperature observations. However, sufficient observations are generally not available, so for global simulations it is common to apply the models without a lake or region specific calibration, which adds additional uncertainty to the projections. As part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) we calibrated four 1D lake temperature models (FLake, GLM, GOTM, Simstrat) using a standardized methodology to a global set of 73 lakes for which in-situ water temperature observations are available. We evaluated the performance of the lake models, estimated the sensitivity of the calibrated model parameters, and related the results to the different model structures and lake characteristics. We highlight how each model differed in their ability to replicate the water temperature dynamics of specific lake types, but also acknowledge that each of the models performed best for a particular subset of lakes. Even though we did not find general relationships between model parameters and lake characteristics, we underscore modeling takeaways to improve global simulations without the need for model-specific calibration. For most models, the most sensitive parameter was the scaling factor for wind speed. Further, our results indicate that accounting for internal seiches in the model can likely increase model performance. From our findings we want to discuss possible paths forward to further improve the quality of global simulations, i.e. improvements in forcing data, model process description, and using (multi-model) ensemble techniques.

How to cite: Feldbauer, J., Mesman, J. P., Andersen, T. K., Ladwig, R., and Petzoldt, T.: How to improve global lake water temperature projections: findings from calibrating 4 lake temperature models to 73 lakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6179, 2025.

EGU25-7455 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Investigating Upwelling Events in Multi-Arm Fjord-Type Lakes: A Case Study of Quesnel Lake 

Amin Sadeghpour, Bernard E Laval, and Svein Vagle

Lakes are an important part of the environment, being influenced by their inflows and influencing their outflows. The physical properties of lake water, such as temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration, affect downstream habitats and ecosystems. Limnological processes, such as upwelling, can rapidly change downstream river properties. Upwelling introduces a sudden influx of cold water downstream, potentially disrupting the riverine ecosystem, including salmon migration, which is closely tied to water temperature.

Upwelling occurs in thermally stratified lakes when wind forces cause cold water from the hypolimnion to rise to the warm lake surface. For this to happen, wind must have sufficient amplitude and fetch (Wedderburn number close to one) and persist for sufficient duration (exceeding one-quarter of the lake's fundamental seiche period). Upwelling typically occurs during periods of weak stratification, mainly at the beginning or end of the stratification season, and is more pronounced near lake boundaries, where outflows originate.

One example of such a lake-river system is Quesnel Lake, a fjord-type lake in British Columbia, Canada. It is the source of the Quesnel River, which feeds into the Fraser River and one of the world's most productive salmon-bearing systems. Quesnel Lake is a three-armed, Y-shaped lake with West, North, and East Arms. The West Arm is divided by a shallow sill (maximum depth of 35 m) and contraction into the West Basin and the Main Basin, which includes the North and East Arms. The Main Basin reaches a maximum depth of 511 m and includes 97.7% of the lake volume. The Quesnel River originates from the western end of the West Basin and is thus affected by upwelling in the West Basin. The lake’s complex geometry (i.e. multiple arms and basins), combined with complex surrounding topography that creates local wind patterns, complicates the upwelling process

This study uses nine years (2016-2024) of mooring and meteorological data to investigate upwelling in the West Basin of Quesnel Lake and how it affects temperature in the Quesnel River. Data were collected using moorings and meteorological stations in all three Arms to capture the spatial variability of wind and temperature. Temperature loggers, ADCPs, wind speed and direction were used to identify upwelling in the West Basin, as well as the wind patterns that generate upwelling and the river’s response.

During each year of observation, upwelling in the West Basin occurs multiple times during summer stratification, despite the strong thermal stratification. Upwelling is correlated with winds aligned with the lake’s thalweg, exceeding the 80th percentile of wind speed, and lasts 3-6 days, causing temperature drops of over 5°C in the Quesnel River.  The most pronounced lake surface temperature drops occur at the Quesnel River mouth and moorings in the West Basin. Within the West Basin, the narrowing and shallowing of the lake toward the river mouth further contributes to the temperature decrease in the river. Therefore, the lake’s geometry not only complicates the occurrence of upwelling but also amplifies its downstream impacts.

How to cite: Sadeghpour, A., E Laval, B., and Vagle, S.: Investigating Upwelling Events in Multi-Arm Fjord-Type Lakes: A Case Study of Quesnel Lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7455, 2025.

Reservoirs lose significant amounts of water through evaporation, particularly for large canyon-shaped reservoirs with dams on major rivers. The canyon-shaped reservoirs, characterized by their long, narrow, and deep water bodies within steep V-shaped or U-shaped valleys, differ significantly from lakes but are often mistakenly studied as ‘artificial lakes’, leading to substantial biases in evaporation estimates. Canyon-shaped reservoirs boast the largest storage capacities among reservoir types in China and globally. This study, utilizing eight years observations from a floating pan on the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR)—China’s largest reservoir, explores the evaporation processes unique to canyon-shaped reservoirs from both the mass transfer and energy balance perspectives.

Regarding the energy balance, the results reveal that evaporation from the floating pan exhibits a bimodal pattern in August and December, contrasting sharply with the unimodal pattern observed in lakes or lake-type reservoirs. The December peak lags the net radiation by four months. The water body’s energy balance follows a seasonal trajectory, with a heat storage period from March to August and a heat release period from September to February. An energy budget analysis of seven cross-sections based on water temperature along the TGR’s main stream highlights the critical roles of heat storage and advected energy, which are influenced by varying water depth and flowing water.

In terms of mass transfer, we discovered that the evaporation rate over the TGR is intensified by temperature inversions within the boundary layer (negative water-to-air temperature differences), a characteristic hydrothermal feature of canyon-shaped reservoirs. Unlike lakes, the evaporation rate per unit water-to-air vapor pressure difference does not depend on horizontal wind speed but significantly increases during temperature inversions, primarily occurring from March to August. This phenomenon is attributed to river-valley breezes, which generate significant vertical air movements that drive evaporation. The enhancement in evaporation rate is roughly estimated to be 117 mm annually.

These findings underscore that canyon-shaped reservoirs should not be treated as artificial lakes when studying evaporation. The impacts of varying water depth and horizontal flow should be seriously considered when investigating the energy balance for evaporation, and the role of river-valley breezes must be carefully examined when studying the turbulent transfer for water evaporation over the water surface.

How to cite: Han, S., Zhang, B., and Wang, L.: Should canyon-shaped Three Gorges Reservoir be treated as an artificial lake in evaporation studies? Results from eight years floating pan observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7720, 2025.

EGU25-8001 | Posters on site | HS10.4

ALPLAKES: advancing lake research and management through open integration ofremote sensing and hydrodynamic products 

Damien Bouffard, Marina Amadori, Mariano Brescani, Claudia Giardino, Daniel Odermatt, Abolfazl Irani Rahaghi, James Runnalls, Martin Schmid, Marco Toffolon, and Mortimer Werther

Alplakes is an interactive web application providing open access to operational simulations and remote sensing data for lakes in the European alpine region. The platform combines outputs from various research projects to create a digital twin of each lake. Designed with user-friendliness in mind, Alplakes enables a wide range of users to access operational lake models and remote sensing products developed by researchers. Here we focus on the three-dimensional hydrodynamic operational models featured in Alplakes. The project builds on the previous work of Meteolakes, which pioneered the integration of satellite Earth observation and three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling. Since 2016, the Meteolakes web platform has attracted over 600,000 users. Alplakes expands on this foundation, now covering twelve Alpine lakes at elevations ranging from 60 to 1800 meters above sea level. This broader scope aims to provide comprehensive data for a diverse set of alpine water bodies. The goal is finally to discuss the possible interest to upscale such kind of initiative.

Website: https://www.alplakes.eawag.ch

How to cite: Bouffard, D., Amadori, M., Brescani, M., Giardino, C., Odermatt, D., Rahaghi, A. I., Runnalls, J., Schmid, M., Toffolon, M., and Werther, M.: ALPLAKES: advancing lake research and management through open integration ofremote sensing and hydrodynamic products, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8001, 2025.

EGU25-8300 | Orals | HS10.4

Eddy generation in Lake Baikal during ice-free season from satellite remote sensing and field observations 

Alexei V. Kouraev, Elena A. Zakharova, Andrey G. Kostianoy, Nicholas M.J. Hall, Anna I. Ginzburg, and Andrey Ya. Suknev

Large Eurasian lakes are an integrator of climate processes at the regional scale and a good indicator of climate changes. Variability of ice and snow regime is important for their physical, chemical and biological properties, and for human activity. 
We address drivers and patterns of eddy generation during ice-free season before and after vertical overturning in lake Baikal (Russia). We use satellite remote sensing, historical observations and in situ data to follow the different stages of warm and cold anticyclonic eddy generation before and after vertical overturning. Thermal satellite images (Landsat-5-7-8) for 1998-2022 indicate a stable repeating seasonal pattern which is classified into stage of eddy generation and development. Field observations complement satellite imagery to characterise the vertical structure of the eddies. The main source of eddy generation of eddies is the outflow from Barguzin Bay which interacts with the coastline. Subsequent eddy generation is driven by density gradients and geostrophic adjustment. In summer this outflow is dominated by river inflow and lead to the formation of warm anticyclonic eddies. After autumnal vertical overturn, the outflow is forced by the wind bringing cold water from the bay to Middle Baikal and creating cold anticyclonic eddies. We suggest that in the autumn, when the surrounding water cools to a temperature below about 4°C, these cold eddies sink and transform into intrathermocline lens-like eddies that persist under ice and can later create giant ice rings on the Baikal ice cover. 
Better understanding of eddy dynamics and continued monitoring help to improve safety for people travelling or working on the ice. There is a need for timely communication of results for non-scientific audience - fishermen, tourism agencies, tourists, journalists and local administration.
This research was supported by the CNES TOSCA Lakeddies, TRISHNA and SWIRL projects, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology Project N FMWE-2024-0016) and Institute of Water Problems Project N FMWZ-2022-0001.

How to cite: Kouraev, A. V., Zakharova, E. A., Kostianoy, A. G., Hall, N. M. J., Ginzburg, A. I., and Suknev, A. Ya.: Eddy generation in Lake Baikal during ice-free season from satellite remote sensing and field observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8300, 2025.

EGU25-8824 | Orals | HS10.4

Unexpected outcome of an extended drought period on the primary productivity of Lake Pusiano (Lombardia, Northern Italy): the importance of integrated lake-catchment modelling in cause-effect assessments 

Andrea Fenocchi, Nicolò Pella, Michela Rogora, Lucia Valsecchi, Fabio Buzzi, Paolo Dezuanni, Claudia Dresti, and Diego Copetti

Water eutrophication is still a reason of concern for lakes at the foothills of the European Alps. Among them, small and shallow basins are the ones exposed to the highest risks. This occurs because they often display anoxic hypolimnions during the stratification period, triggering internal nutrient loading from the sediments. Furthermore, their low volume makes them more vulnerable to alterations in external loading. Interventions on alpine watersheds in the last decades decreased external nutrient pollution for most of these lakes, causing a slow disposal of internal loading as well. However, the results of external load reduction measures can hardly be identified directly. In fact, while the European Union Water Framework Directive (EU WFD) sets ecological status targets for water bodies, it does not require monitoring of nutrient loads delivered to lakes. As a result, when worsening trophic conditions occur, it is difficult to tell whether the cause lies in insufficient external load reduction from the watershed, enduring internal load, short-term random meteorological alterations or long-term climate change effects. Integrated lake-catchment models can significantly help to unravel this issue over each specific case study. In fact, they allow reproducing: 1) the dependence of external loads on rainfalls; 2) the response of lake mixing, nutrient concentrations and primary productivity to present meteorological conditions and to future climate change and nutrient load management scenarios; 3) the release mechanisms of nutrients from sediments.

The case of Lake Pusiano (Lombardia, Northern Italy) is exemplary. Eutrophication peaked in this basin in the mid-1980s, after which nutrient pollution countermeasures in the catchment were implemented, stabilising the lake to mesotrophic conditions and significantly reducing internal load by the early-2010s. However, following an extended drought period lasting from late 2021 to early 2023, the lake trophic conditions rapidly worsened, leading to an exceptionally high primary production, enduring to this date also throughout the winter months. To investigate the causes behind this unexpected deterioration, an integrated lake-catchment model was developed, adopting the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+) ecohydrological model to estimate external loads from the watershed and the Water Ecosystems Tool (WET) one-dimensional (1D) coupled ecological-hydrodynamic model for lake mixing and water quality simulations. The extended drought would have been expected to determine a temporary decrease of lake primary production, following the significant decrease in external loads reproduced by SWAT+. However, the WET simulations allowed understanding that the relevant increase in water residence times, also verified through three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic simulations with the Delft3D-FLOW model, together with the hot temperatures of summer 2022, led to severe anoxic conditions. These triggered an outstanding phosphorus release from sediments, affecting also shallower depths and thus a much more extended sediment area than usual. The ensuing rainfalls of 2023 and especially of extraordinarily wet year 2024 helped sustain this outstanding lake primary productivity, adding up to nutrient recycling. The warm 2022-23 and 2023-24 winters further made phytoplankton blooms endure through the coldest months.

How to cite: Fenocchi, A., Pella, N., Rogora, M., Valsecchi, L., Buzzi, F., Dezuanni, P., Dresti, C., and Copetti, D.: Unexpected outcome of an extended drought period on the primary productivity of Lake Pusiano (Lombardia, Northern Italy): the importance of integrated lake-catchment modelling in cause-effect assessments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8824, 2025.

EGU25-9017 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Leveraging Probabilistic Parameter Estimation to Address Data Scarcity in Lake Hydrodynamic Modeling 

Mustafa Onur Onen, Charles Rougé, Robert Ladwig, Isabel Douterelo Soler, and Geoff Darch

Hydrodynamic lake models simulate water temperature at various depths using physics-based equations. These models rely on parameters representing system properties that are not directly measurable, and are generally adjusted through deterministic calibration (DC) methods to find a single parameter set that aligns simulated temperatures with observed data. However, DC overlooks the inherent prediction uncertainties arising from (1) inadequate process representation in the model, (2) measurement errors in hydrometeorological inputs, and (3) errors in water temperature observations used for calibration. Additionally, temperature observations in many lakes and reservoirs are often restricted to a single depth with frequent gaps, necessitating synthetic gap-filling techniques like interpolation, which increase uncertainty and compromise predictive accuracy.

This study explores the potential of probabilistic parameter estimation (PE), which evaluates the uncertainty around likely parameter values, to address these limitations and improve prediction performance in a lake hydrodynamic model. Using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, we quantify uncertainty in model predictions by identifying and aggregating acceptable parameter sets that meet predefined performance criteria conditioned on observed data. Unlike DC, GLUE emphasizes the range of plausible outcomes rather than a single optimal solution. We also propose a method to eliminate the subjectivity in selecting the performance criteria.

We apply this approach to the General Lake Model (GLM), a state-of-the-art 1D vertical hydrodynamic model, using Lake Mendota (WI, USA) as a case study. We use 8 years of hourly seasonal observations, including water temperature measurements at 1-meter intervals from the surface to a depth of 20 meters. Our analysis investigates the impact of data gaps and synthetic gap-filling on prediction accuracy and uncertainty. We systematically compare PE and DC to determine which method better handles data scarcity and improves predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we assess whether PE with multi-depth profile observations provide better predictions than single-depth observations and identify the optimal location for single-depth calibration, focusing on the surface mixed layer (SML), metalimnion, and hypolimnion.

Our results reveal that non-calibrated GLM tends to predict better in the SML than in the hypolimnion and PE becomes increasingly necessary as prediction depth increases. Strikingly, single-depth hypolimnion observations yield more accurate prediction uncertainty bounds across the water column and reduce overfitting compared to profile observations. In contrast, including observations from the SML and metalimnion weakens prediction performance at greater depths. Additionally, synthetic gap-filling in observational data degrades prediction accuracy and amplifies uncertainty. Furthermore, PE consistently outperforms DC in predictive accuracy, especially in deeper waters, and proves more robust under conditions of limited data availability.

These results offer practical insights into instrumentation, data collection and calibration strategies for lake hydrodynamic modeling. They underscore the value of probabilistic approaches like GLUE for robust model development and provide guidance for addressing similar challenges in other aquatic systems.

How to cite: Onen, M. O., Rougé, C., Ladwig, R., Douterelo Soler, I., and Darch, G.: Leveraging Probabilistic Parameter Estimation to Address Data Scarcity in Lake Hydrodynamic Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9017, 2025.

EGU25-9274 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Modelling evaporation from mine pit lakes: comparing three models under current and future climate. 

Benedictor Kemanga, Neil McIntyre, Nevenka Bulovic, and David McJannet

Mine pit lakes, formed in abandoned open-pit mines, undergo complex hydrological processes that affect their water balance and environmental behaviour. Accurate evaporation estimates can be crucial for predicting a pit lake’s long-term behaviour. However, the lack of in situ measurements means that evaporation estimates often rely on models that have not been validated for pit lakes. In this study, three evaporation models were evaluated: an aerodynamic model, incorporating an equilibrium temperature approach, and the General Lake Model, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model and traditional pan coefficient approach. The aerodynamic and GLM models were calibrated and validated using in situ daily measurements of evaporation and surface water temperature taken in a pit lake in central Queensland, Australia over a 21-month period. Based on minimising the RMSE, the aerodynamic model had a calibration period RMSE of 1.2 mm/day while the GLM model had  1.3 mm/day, with corresponding surface water temperature RMSEs of 0.9 °C and 1.2 °C. Validation period performances were similar for both evaporation and temperature. A pan coefficient model using a commonly assumed coefficient of 0.7 produced a calibration period RMSE of 2.8 mm/day. The aerodynamic model estimate exceeded that of the GLM on average by 34 mm/month in summer and 37 mm/month in autumn, with lower differences of 5.4 mm/month in spring and winter.  This is because the aerodynamic model excludes rainfall-induced cooling and mixing of the lake in the summer wet season, leading to higher evaporation estimates. In spring and winter, with less rainfall and mixing, the models align more closely. These differences remained consistent under future climate scenarios due to low projected changes in summer rainfall. Sensitivity analysis of the GLM identified surface heat exchange parameters, wind speed, and radiation are key factors influencing evaporation and temperature simulations. It is concluded that the aerodynamic model is an accurate and easily applied model for estimating current and future evaporation in the case study region. There may be accuracy benefits of using the GLM model where long-term changes in lake inflows, such as increases in rainfall, can change the lake's energy balance.

How to cite: Kemanga, B., McIntyre, N., Bulovic, N., and McJannet, D.: Modelling evaporation from mine pit lakes: comparing three models under current and future climate., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9274, 2025.

EGU25-9295 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Isotopic Analysis of Organic Matter Components in Stratified Marine Lake: Assessing Environmental Shifts and Eutrophication Drivers 

Niki Simonović, Marija Marguš, Doris Potočnik, Nives Ogrinc, and Irena Ciglenečki

Rogoznica Lake–Dragon Eye (RL) is a unique, highly eutrophic, stratified euxinic marine system on the Adriatic coast, sensitive to dynamic environmental shifts. Key physico-chemical transformations in the lake, directly driven by environmental changes, include water column warming, deoxygenation, accumulation of reduced compounds such as toxic sulfides and ammonia, and a increased frequency of anoxic holomictic events, contributing to the pronounced eutrophication [1-2]. All these changes highly impacts organic matter (OM) dynamics and properties. Long-term studies of OM dynamics reveal the accumulation of particulate (POC) and dissolved (DOC) organic carbon, especially in the anoxic hypolimnion, with DOC concentrations ranging from 0.809 to 7.16 mgL-1 and POC from 0.572 to 10.5 mgL-1 [2]. Qualitative changes in OM are evaluated using normalized surface activity (NSA = SAS/DOC) achieved by monitoring of DOC and its surface activity, i.e. surface active substances (SAS) [2-4]. Further characterization of organic matter (OM) is achieved through the analysis of stable isotopes of light elements (13C/12C, 15N/14N, 34S/32S) and the C:N ratio in the POC fraction providing insights into the structure of phytoplankton communities, the sources and origins of OM, and its role in biogeochemical cycles, utilizing the isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) method.

Preliminary results (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, δ³⁴S) from  seasonal RL water column samples revealed isotope values ranging from -20.89 to -32.30 ‰ for δ¹³C, -8.07 to 7.24 ‰ for δ¹⁵N, and -10.83 to 21.74 ‰ for δ³⁴S, with noticeable seasonal shifts along the water column related to variable physico-chemical parameters, including salinity fluctuations, oxygen saturation, and atmospheric deposition. The position of the chemocline, which separates the surface oxic and bottom anoxic water layers, is distinctly observable from the δ³⁴S values, also showing pronounced seasonality. These findings suggest that the OM in the RL water column is predominantly autochthonous, largely derived from phytoplankton activity, with occasional allochthonous inputs, as indicated by the C:N ratio (ranging from 1.09 to 6.51), contributing to eutrophication. During holomictic events, when the otherwise stratified water column becomes mixed and anoxic throughout, isotope ratios point to the presence of bacterially-produced OM. The isotopic data, in conjunction with other organic matter parameters (DOC, POC, SAS, NSA), reveal qualitative and quantitative changes in the composition of OM, offering deeper insight into the influence of environmental shifts on OM dynamics within RL.

 

This work was result of research activities within the MARRES (IP-2018-01-1717) and the ISO-ZOKO (IP-2024-05-2377) projects.

 

[1] I. Ciglenečki, Z. Ljubešić, I. Janeković, M. Batistić, in R.D. Gulati, E.S. Zadereev, A.G. Degermendzhi (eds) “Ecology of meromictic lakes”. Springer 2017, Cham, p 125−154.

[2] Simonović, N., Dominović, I., Marguš, M., Matek, A., Ljubešić, Z., Ciglenečki, I. Sci. Total Environ. 863 (2023) 161076.

[3] I. Ciglenečki, I. Vilibić, J. Dautović, V. Vojvodić, B. Ćosović, P. Zemunik, N. Dunić, H. Mihajlović, Sci. Total Environ. 730 (2020) 139104.

[4] Simonović; N., Marguš, M., Paliaga, P., Budiša, A., Ciglenečki, I. Mediterr. Mar. Sci. 25(1) (2024) 160-178.

How to cite: Simonović, N., Marguš, M., Potočnik, D., Ogrinc, N., and Ciglenečki, I.: Isotopic Analysis of Organic Matter Components in Stratified Marine Lake: Assessing Environmental Shifts and Eutrophication Drivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9295, 2025.

EGU25-9360 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

A lurking uncertainty in lake ecosystem modeling: can equifinality arise from conceptually similar models? 

Robert Ladwig, Jorrit P. Mesman, Tobias K. Andersen, and Tuba Bucak

Vertical one-dimensional aquatic ecosystem models (AEMs) are commonly used to project water quality changes in lakes, ponds and reservoirs. AEMs integrate a physical model, for water temperature dynamics and mixing, and a water quality model, which simulates biogeochemical cycles and ecological processes. Although powerful, assessing the performance of these models is challenging as observational data are often scarce and most models are overparameterized, making them mathematically ill-posed. A promising approach is the use of ensemble modeling to quantify the uncertainties of the underlying mathematical model parameters and the boundary data. In this study, we apply three AEMs (GLM-AED, GOTM-WET, GOTM-Selmaprotbas) to replicate observed long-term water quality dynamics of Lake Mendota, USA. Each model was configured conceptually similar, and parameters were calibrated to the same data, but optimization procedures differed. We assessed model performance through a hierarchical framework to evaluate fits on the state, process and system level. Although all AEMs sufficiently replicated most of the observed data - the states - they differed in their projected reaction pathways - the processes. As an example, modeled nitrate concentrations were close to observed data, but modeled nitrification and denitrification rates differed across models. This highlights the importance of considering the equifinality thesis, meaning that alternative modeling pathways exist simulating the same output data, for aquatic ecosystem modeling as an additional, and crucial, contributor to uncertainty. We recommend that future modeling studies should employ ensemble setups to further explore the role of equifinality.

How to cite: Ladwig, R., Mesman, J. P., Andersen, T. K., and Bucak, T.: A lurking uncertainty in lake ecosystem modeling: can equifinality arise from conceptually similar models?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9360, 2025.

EGU25-9413 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4 | Highlight

Causes and consequences of long-term oxygen depletion in northern lakes 

Joachim Jansen, Gavin L. Simpson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Laura H. Härkönen, Andrew M. Paterson, Paul A. del Giorgio, and Yves T. Prairie

Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45° N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6 million water chemistry observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation. This oxygen loss was linked primarily to prolongation of summer stratification associated with climate warming. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10 ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained oxygen under minimal stratification changes and improved aeration at spring overturns. Seasonal oxygen consumption rates declined, despite widespread browning. Proliferating anoxia enhanced seasonal internal loading of C, P and N but depleted P long-term, indicating that deoxygenation can exhaust redox-sensitive fractions of sediment nutrient reservoirs. In this presentation I will discuss the use of supervised machine learning tools and hierarchical models to analyse ‘big’ ecological datasets, in this case to examine the physical and biological causes of long-term oxygen loss in northern lakes.

How to cite: Jansen, J., Simpson, G. L., Weyhenmeyer, G. A., Härkönen, L. H., Paterson, A. M., del Giorgio, P. A., and Prairie, Y. T.: Causes and consequences of long-term oxygen depletion in northern lakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9413, 2025.

EGU25-9570 | Posters on site | HS10.4

Seasonal stratification and basin-scale internal waves in the North Aral Sea 

Georgiy Kirillin, Tom Shatwell, and Alexander Izhitsky

The restoration of the North Aral was an unprecedented effort to save a large water basin by construction of a dam that separates it from the rest of the desiccating Aral Sea area. As a result, the lake volume has stabilized at 27.5 km3, the area has increased from 2800 km2 in 2006 to 3400 km2 in 2020, and the salinity has dropped from 18 to 10 g kg-1. The consequences of this unique experiment include highly dynamic changes of the thermal conditions, seasonal stratification, ice regime, and dissolved oxygen content and remain not fully quantified to date. We analyze the current state of the North Aral Sea with regard to stabilization of its long term dynamics, as well as consider the possible future projections in view of the global change effects on the regional hydrological regime and potential water management measures. Using data from two year-long observations, we analyze the current seasonal mixing regime and sub-seasonal oscillations due to lake-scale internal waves in the North Aral. We found that the seasonal stratification pattern is intermediate between dimictic and polymictic, with relatively weak summer thermal stratification occupying only a small deep part of the lake. Salinity does not contribute to the summer density stratification.   On  the background of weak thermal stratification,  highly energetic internal waves with periods of 4.5 days  dominate the near-bottom dynamics and facilitate mixing at the lake bottom. As a result, the bulk of the water column remains well saturated with oxygen throughout the year. However, low-oxygen conditions may develop in the deepest part of the lake in mid-summer. In summary, the mixing regime of the restarted lake favors vertical transport of dissolved matter and  water-sediment mass exchange ensuring oxygenation of deep waters and supply of nutrients to the upper water column. While the North Aral Sea is restored to the well-mixed state similar to that before its desiccation started, its seasonal mixing regime is currently in unstable equilibrium, wobbling between polymictic and dimictic conditions. The fragility of this seasonal pattern is demonstrated by modeling results: slight changes of the water level or transparency may turn the Aral Sea to steadily dimictic or polymictic state. 

How to cite: Kirillin, G., Shatwell, T., and Izhitsky, A.: Seasonal stratification and basin-scale internal waves in the North Aral Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9570, 2025.

EGU25-9683 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Long-Term Water Quality Trends in Lake Vomb, Sweden 

Anna Söderman

Lake Vomb is a 12 km2 large lake located in southern Sweden which has served as a vital drinking water source for approximately 500,000 inhabitants since the 40s. The lake is highly productive due to its location in a highly dense agricultural region and, therefore, has high phosphorous concentrations that periodically cause extensive and occasionally toxic algal blooms. This poses challenges not only for the drinking water production but also for the local communities in the area. Various measures, such as artificial wetlands and natural flooding areas, have been implemented in the catchment to decrease nutrient loading. However, these measures have shown limited effects on improving water quality in the lake.

Monitoring data has been collected since the 50s, but much of this historical data has remained unused due to a lack of digitalisation. In this study these archived records was recovered and digitalised to create a comprehensive long-term dataset with the aim of analysing trends in nutrient fluxes, the effectiveness of mitigation measures, changes in land-use and agricultural activities and the impact of climate change. Preliminary results show a decrease in nutrient concentrations in the inflowing waterbodies which is not seen in the lake itself, posing the question of in-lake processes continuing driving the eutrophication of the lake, such as internal phosphorus loading. By evaluating these long-term trends insight in lake dynamics could be gained as well as help to identify relevant and cost-effective measures for improving the lake water quality.

How to cite: Söderman, A.: Long-Term Water Quality Trends in Lake Vomb, Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9683, 2025.

EGU25-10614 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Vulnerable Hotspots: Understanding the hydrology of small German lakes and ponds 

Alexander Wachholz and James Jawitz

Small lakes and ponds are hotspots of biodiversity, biogeochemical reactions, and hydrological interactions in the landscape. While providing the same functions as larger lakes, they often do so at higher rates per unit area. Despite their ecological importance and vulnerability to climate and land use changes, they are excluded from monitoring programs at the European and German national scales. This limits our ability to assess their responses to a changing climate and the cascading effects on surrounding ecosystems. The ecosystem functions of small lakes are closely tied to the permanent or seasonally consistent presence of water, making the understanding of their water budgets a crucial research priority.

In this study, we utilized Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to reconstruct water area time series for approximately 700 German small lakes and ponds (0.005–0.5 km²) from 2017 to 2024. These time series were used to calibrate simple water balance models and investigate the susceptibility of these lakes to temporary or permanent lack of water under current and projected climate conditions. Sensitivity analyses and climate projections, combined with lake characteristics from the German Small Lake and Pond Inventory (GSLPI), allowed us to identify key attributes—such as morphology, geographic location, and connectivity to river networks—that best explain the risk of falling dry.

Our findings indicate that many small lakes and ponds are at risk of transitioning from permanent to seasonal water presence in the coming decades. Importantly, individual lake characteristics, rather than regional hydro-climate conditions, are the strongest predictors of these changes. This work underscores the urgent need to include small lakes and ponds in monitoring frameworks to better understand their ecological functions and vulnerabilities in a rapidly changing climate.

How to cite: Wachholz, A. and Jawitz, J.: Vulnerable Hotspots: Understanding the hydrology of small German lakes and ponds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10614, 2025.

EGU25-11084 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Impact of agricultural runoff on a shallow fluvial lake and wetland in the Mincio River basin (Italy) 

Matteo De Vincenzi, Luca Adami, and Marco Tubino

Fluvial lakes, due to their short renewal time, are particularly affected by upstream processes. This study focuses on the morphological evolution of the Lake Superiore (Mantua, Northern Italy) and of the upstream wetland. The lake is a shallow fluvial reservoir, regulated by a dam on the Mincio River, which is the main outlet of Lake Garda. The case study is located in the central part of the Po River Valley, one of the most productive agricultural areas in Italy. The farmland is irrigated by a huge ditch network with a total length of approximately 2000 km, almost 30 times the length of the Mincio River itself (75 km). Many of the river’s main tributaries are agricultural canals, resulting in a considerable amount of nutrients and fine sediment inputs due to surface runoff. During high rainfall events, the sediment plume released from these channels is clearly visible also from satellite images and can often reach the lake. As a result, Lake Superiore is hypertrophic due to nutrient loads and water stagnation, with a Secchi depth lower than 1 m and dissolved oxygen saturations that may exceed 400% during summers.

Using the previously tested “Deeper CHIRP+” low-cost SONAR, between 2023 and 2024 we acquired a detailed bathymetric map of the lake and of the wetland’s main channel network. We compared these maps with formerly acquired bathymetries of the two areas dating back to 2006 and 2016 respectively. Both areas showed a clear trend of deposition, with maximum differences in bed elevation of the order of 1 m, approximately 1/3 of the mean depth of the lake. The wetland, which has high naturalistic value (included in Nature 2000 sites), resulted particularly threatened by landfilling, with a risk of channels closure and loss of aquatic wildlife habitat.

Since February 2024, we have been acquiring monthly measurements of discharge, water quality, and suspended solids concentration in the Mincio River and in two of its main tributaries: the Goldone and Osone canals. Osone showed the highest values of suspended sediments, with a TSS concentration of 140 mg/L at a discharge of 12 m3/s, resulting in a load of 145 tons/day entering the wetland, while the incoming discharge in the Mincio River was comparable. Regarding nutrients, it reached a maximum concentration of 16 mg/L of total nitrogen, further worsening the ecological state of the system.

Due to either water scarcity or flood protection issues, management authorities of the Mincio River are skeptical about lake flushing activities. However, it could be possible to plan effective flushing operations within an integrated management framework. Increasing the discharge from the dam immediately after heavy rainfall events may reduce sedimentation at the time of maximum inputs. To achieve this objective, a good knowledge of the water and sediment distribution in the channel network is needed.  For this reason, we are developing a numerical model to predict sedimentation rates in the wetland for different through-flowing discharges.

How to cite: De Vincenzi, M., Adami, L., and Tubino, M.: Impact of agricultural runoff on a shallow fluvial lake and wetland in the Mincio River basin (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11084, 2025.

EGU25-11327 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Assessment of groundwater impact on the water temperature of small sand-pit lakes through one-dimensional modelling 

Carolina Paz, Alice Marquet, Yoann Cartier, Céline Casenave, Pablo Santoro, Gilles Le Moguédec, and Brigitte Vinçon-Leite

In urban areas, small lakes provide many ecosystem services including biodiversity, landscape composition, cooling islands, recreation, etc.  Many have been created during the recent decades as sand-pit lakes. Their origin comes from urbanisation which requires large quantities of sand and gravel for the construction of buildings and infrastructure. Gravel is often extracted from riverbeds, beach deposits or alluvial fans. When gravel extraction stops, the quarries fill up with groundwater and become artificial lakes.

The thermal regime and hydrodynamics of these lakes have a strong influence on their ecological functioning and on the fate of contaminants in the water column. In order to better understand their physical behaviour and to which extent it may be affected by climate change, numerical modelling can be very effective.

Calibration of the model parameters is a crucial step to obtain reliable modelling results. However, the available field data are generally too scarce to obtain a single set of parameter values. Performing a sensitivity analysis allows to identify the most sensitive parameters that need to be calibrated.

The results of the parameter sensitivity analysis and the calibration of a one-dimensional model (GLM, General Lake Model) (Hipsey et al., 2019) are presented. The sensitivity analysis was performed according to a global sensitivity analysis technique, the Morris method (Herman et al., 2013). For the parameter calibration, the CMA-ES method (Covariance Matrix Adaptation - Evolution Strategy), which has been previously used for GLM lake modelling (Ladwig et al., 2021), was applied. The study site is a sand-pit lake located in the Great Paris region. High-frequency water temperature records are available at 4 depths in the water column for the last two years (2023 and 2024).

The sensitivity analysis showed that the thermal regime of the lake is particularly sensitive to the values of 4 parameters that are related to the meteorological forcing (sw, a scaling factor to adjust the shortwave radiation data), the light attenuation in the water column (Kw), the latent heat flux transfer coefficient (Ce) and the mean sediment temperature (sed_temp_mean). Calibration of these 4 parameters was then conducted. The simulation obtained with the calibrated parameters was then compared with a  reference simulation performed using default values for all parameters.

The results highlight the importance of including the sediment temperature to correctly simulate the temperature of the lake bottom layers. The high-frequency monitoring (time step = 15mn) allows to accurately check the efficiency of the calibration method. After the calibration of the 4 parameters identified in the sensitivity analysis, the simulation of the lake temperature is significantly improved, according to different metrics (e.g. RMSE decreasing from 1.8°C to 0.8°C).

How to cite: Paz, C., Marquet, A., Cartier, Y., Casenave, C., Santoro, P., Le Moguédec, G., and Vinçon-Leite, B.: Assessment of groundwater impact on the water temperature of small sand-pit lakes through one-dimensional modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11327, 2025.

EGU25-11330 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

The unexpectedly large impact of salt precipitation on water temperature: A revised energy and mass budget of the Dead Sea during 1979 - 2019 

Emmanuel Guillerm, Véronique Gardien, Fabian Bärenbold, Tim K. Lowenstein, Achim Brauer, Damien Bouffard, and Frédéric Caupin

The Dead Sea has warmed up by more than 2°C since the overturn of 1979. This unusually fast warming rate has attracted little attention in comparison with the man-induced rapid lake level fall that has gone unabated since the 1950s. Here we develop a thermal model of the Dead Sea to investigate the causes of the lake temperature increase. The monthly-resolved model quantifies all major heat fluxes at the air-water interface with generic physical equations, uses an empirically-based scheme to simulate lake stratification, and incorporates for the first time the heat flux related to the precipitation of halite (sodium chloride, NaCl). This results in a very good agreement with monitoring data for the net air-water heat flux and for the temperatures of the upper and deep lake layers. The various contributions to the energy budget can be disentangled by turning them on or off in the simulations. We thus explore the role of heat released by halite precipitation and of seasonal air temperature in controlling the temperature of the lake. We find a major role of the heat released by halite precipitation, which was previously ignored and has major implications on the understanding of the water budget of the lake. This study paves the way for a better understanding of the hydrological crisis faced by hypersaline lakes around the world, and opens new perspectives in the study of the past climates that led to the accumulation of evaporite deposits.

How to cite: Guillerm, E., Gardien, V., Bärenbold, F., Lowenstein, T. K., Brauer, A., Bouffard, D., and Caupin, F.: The unexpectedly large impact of salt precipitation on water temperature: A revised energy and mass budget of the Dead Sea during 1979 - 2019, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11330, 2025.

EGU25-12013 | Posters on site | HS10.4

A multidisciplinary approach for Small reservoirs monitoring 

Silvia Di Francesco, Francesca Giannone, Francesco Biondi, Stefano Casadei, Grazia Tosi, Francesca Todisco, Lorenzo Vergni, Stefano Fazi, Marco D'Eugenio, and Barbara Casentini

The work aims at developing a multidisciplinary strategy for the monitoring, assessment, valorization and possible use of small reservoirs in the framework of resilient water resources management. Specifically, we focus on water quality and quantity analysis using an integrated approach between remote sensing data and in situ observations.

The topic is part of the SIGHTING- Small reservoIrs restoration: Green blu-infrastructures to enHance rural area resilience To clImate change-project, that is devoted to the study of lakes in  the upper Umbria Region (Central Italy).

First, available satellite data, coupled also with the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, are used to investigate in the last decade, the spatial distribution, the seasonal variations and the inter-annual variations of target water quality parameters such as the chlorophyll Chl-a concentration and turbidity. Different products with increasing spatial resolution. e.g. Sentinel -2 and Planet-Scope (from 20m to 3.7m), freely available for research use, are tested. These data, acquired with a regular revisit time of few days, allows a continuous monitoring of the water resource.

The procedure is validated for a pilot cases study, calibrating derived results on the base of in situ monitoring data. In July 2024, the water quality survey has been conducted on a small shallow pilot study lake, of about 33200 m2, collecting  20 samples for chemical and physical analysis.

The procedure, even if limited to a pilot case study, allows to establish the potentialities and weakness of the free satellite data used, also in the context of a possible extension to a largest spatial scale (regional/national).

How to cite: Di Francesco, S., Giannone, F., Biondi, F., Casadei, S., Tosi, G., Todisco, F., Vergni, L., Fazi, S., D'Eugenio, M., and Casentini, B.: A multidisciplinary approach for Small reservoirs monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12013, 2025.

EGU25-12040 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Lake’s Response to an Extreme Synoptic Storm: Internal Waves and Air-Lake Coupling  

Yael Amitai and Ehud Ehud Strobach

In May 2022, a unique dry easterly windstorm generated extreme surface waves on Lake Kinneret, leading to the destruction of the eastern coastal promenade. Wind speeds exceeded 90 km/h in the northern part of the lake and 60 km/h in its eastern part, resulting in significant mixing captured by an in-situ sensor network. Since the lake was already thermally stratified, the atmospheric storm generated a steep-fronted internal surge that propagated along the thermocline. This surge caused intensified mixing, deepened the thermocline, and triggered sediment resuspension as it shoaled over the lake’s slope.  

To assess the storm's impact on lake mixing and the role of air-sea interactions, we applied a 3D coupled lake-atmosphere model. The study examines the storm-driven internal surge within the context of a pre-existing internal wave field generated by the daily Mediterranean breeze. Our findings suggest that this internal wave field plays a role in modulating the excitation of the internal surge. Furthermore, we analyze the spatiotemporal variability of lake mixing regimes and the interactions between the lake and atmosphere during the May 2022 storm. The results are supported by observations from multiple locations within the lake and simulations conducted with both coupled and uncoupled 3D simulations.

How to cite: Amitai, Y. and Ehud Strobach, E.: Lake’s Response to an Extreme Synoptic Storm: Internal Waves and Air-Lake Coupling , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12040, 2025.

EGU25-12399 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Spatial-temporal observations of thermocline dynamics in an enclosed former estuary 

Hannah Clercx, Wouter Kranenburg, and Julie Pietrzak

In the recent decades, throughout coastal areas all around the world, estuaries have been closed off to improve coastal safety. An example is Lake Veere, located in the Southwest of the Netherlands. However, this lake experiences water quality issues, strongly related to the two-layer stratification that develops in summer, inhibiting downward mixing of oxygen. In combination with benthic oxygen demand, this results in anoxic conditions in the lower layer, most prominently in the western part of Lake Veere. It is hypothesized that upwelling of this lower anoxic layer has caused mass fish mortality events. This study investigates the spatial-temporal behaviour of the thermocline, studying how the stratification arises and develops, and what the effects of environmental factors such as wind and rainfall are on the stratification intensity and the movements of the thermocline.

During the summer of 2024, field observations were conducted in Lake Veere. From June till August (92 days), three moorings with arrays of temperature sensors with a vertical resolution of 0.4 m measuring at 1 Hz were deployed in the northwestern part of the lake. The moorings were placed in a triangle, with two moorings at the ends of a previous tidal channel, and the third at a shallower locationto obtain a spatial image. In addition, 2 ADCP’s were placed between the moorings to obtain flow velocity data. Data on wind and precipitation was obtained from the Dutch weather institute (KNMI) and Rijkswaterstaat (RWS), and RWS also provided measurements of the oxygen levels in the lake, co-located with our temperature measurements.

Oxygen measurements at depths above the thermocline show decreasing levels of oxygen during certain wind events. The temperature profiles clearly show stratification as it arises from warm weather and then develops until it is disturbed. Correlating the wind velocity and direction with the temperature results, it can clearly be seen that increasing wind speeds in along-channel direction have a strong effect on the stratification, ranging from tilting of the thermocline to completely mixing the water column. The spatial image of the data shows that during certain wind events, tilting occurs. Comparing the temperature data with the measured oxygen levels, it can be observed that the tilting of the thermocline results in movement of the anoxic water, causing it to well up at the end of the lake.

Due to climate change, period of warm weather are more extreme and longer in duration. This results in stronger stratification, deteriorating the water quality in these lakes. Studying the fluid dynamics in these systems contributes to finding solutions to improve the water quality and the local ecosystem.

How to cite: Clercx, H., Kranenburg, W., and Pietrzak, J.: Spatial-temporal observations of thermocline dynamics in an enclosed former estuary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12399, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12399, 2025.

EGU25-12590 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Spatial variability of turbulent mixing across the constriction of a two-basin lake 

Tomy Doda, Jemima Rama, Oscar Sepúlveda Steiner, Hugo N. Ulloa, David Janssen, and Damien Bouffard

Lakes with multiple basins exhibit spatially variable biogeochemical and physical properties. In these systems, wind- and convection-driven inter-basin exchange facilitates the transport of heat and solutes between basins, contributing to both surface and deepwater renewal. Such exchanges may supply oxygen to the deep, anoxic waters of oligomictic lakes, in addition to winter vertical mixing. As a result, oxygen mass budgets require estimates of the horizontal and vertical turbulent fluxes generated by exchange flows. Yet, the spatial variability of turbulent mixing across lake basins and the turbulent signature of inter-basin exchange remain poorly understood. This study investigates these processes in Lake Zug, Switzerland (surface area of 38 km², mean depth of 83 m, maximal depth of 197 m), a two-basin oligomictic lake. The lake is divided into a shallow, well-ventilated North basin and a deep, redox-stratified South basin, separated by a one-kilometer-wide constriction. The zonation of redox processes in Lake Zug is governed by the sources and sinks of oxygen, necessitating the quantification of turbulent transport by exchange flows. We deployed three moorings equipped with a vertical array of thermistors, oxygen loggers and acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) for one year along the constriction, allowing us to characterize the nature and dynamics of exchange flows. Additionally, conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) and microstructure profiles were collected along North-South transects with a VMP-500 free-falling profiler (Rockland Scientific International Inc.). We quantified the spatial variability of turbulent mixing by estimating Thorpe displacements (LT), turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate (ε), and vertical turbulent diffusivity (Kz) from the microstructure data. These observations provide new insight into the effects of inter-basin exchange flows on the spatial heterogeneity of turbulence, improving our understanding of multi-basin lake physics and biogeochemistry.

How to cite: Doda, T., Rama, J., Sepúlveda Steiner, O., N. Ulloa, H., Janssen, D., and Bouffard, D.: Spatial variability of turbulent mixing across the constriction of a two-basin lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12590, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12590, 2025.

EGU25-12669 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Hydrodynamic Modelling of Great Slave Lake Using NEMO 

Jonas Stankevicius, Alain Pietroniro, and Qi Zhou

The subarctic region of northern Canada, including the Mackenzie River basin is deeply impacted by the changing climate. Unprecedented rates of warming in Canada’s North, up to four times the global average, have been observed in the region over the past few decades. This brings significant implications for regional hydrology, ecosystems, and human activities. A major controlling feature in the Mackenzie River Basin is Great Slave Lake, which is the second largest lake in the Northwest Territories of Canada and the deepest lake in North America. With over 60% of the population of Northwest Territories living along its shores, Great Slave Lake is a vital ecological and societal asset in the region. This study aims to further our understanding of water circulation and stratification patterns in Great Slave Lake through numerical simulation. Despite the status of Great Slave Lake as one of the largest and deepest lakes in North America, comprehensive numerical modelling has proven difficult due to lack of accurate bathymetric data. To address this gap, we collaborated with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans to develop the first complete bathymetric map of Great Slave Lake. Historical naval charts and field sheets were integrated with additional sounding data to produce a simulation domain tailored to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) at a horizontal resolution of 1km with 30 vertical layers. The NEMO model was chosen for application in this large lake for consistency with the existing model setup being used by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) for its operational forecasting system in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Atmospheric reanalysis is provided by ECCC’S Regional Deterministic Reanalysis System (RDRS), while surface runoff entering the lake is driven by the Community Environmental Modelling System – Surface & Hydrology (MESH) outputs from the Global Water Futures reanalysis efforts. The resulting NEMO model shows good capability of simulating lake processes with preliminary results indicating that the lake exhibits seasonal thermal stratification, consistent with dimictic behaviour, where full vertical mixing occurs twice annually. Our results also show that wind-induced mixing appears to also play a significant role in lake circulation, and a counterclockwise circulation pattern is observed, with prominent gyres in the main basin of the lake. Ongoing work focuses on further validation of the temperature profiles at select locations and sensitivity analysis to improve the overall simulation capabilities of the model for future water resource management needs.

How to cite: Stankevicius, J., Pietroniro, A., and Zhou, Q.: Hydrodynamic Modelling of Great Slave Lake Using NEMO, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12669, 2025.

EGU25-13090 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Observations of Mixing and Deep Convection in a deep Fjord-Type Lake, Quesnel Lake, Canada 

Sherif Alaa Ibrahim, Bernard E Laval, and Svein Vagle

Deep lakes in temperate climates represent around 50% of the world’s surface, liquid freshwater storage, yet the mechanisms governing their seasonal deepwater renewal—and, in turn, their ability to support ecosystems—remain somewhat elusive. These lakes have depths of hundreds of meters thus experience extreme hydrostatic pressures, causing compressibility to significantly affect circulation. Combined with windstorms and inverse thermal stratification, this compressibility is hypothesized to trigger thermobaric instability which ultimately results in hypolimnetic ventilation. In this study, we investigate deep ventilation in Quesnel Lake, with a maximum depth of 511 m. The lake has a Y-shaped morphology formed by three arms and a horizontal extent of approximately 100 km. Our focus is on the East Arm, where the maximum depth occurs, which is surrounded by mountainous terrain which channels and amplifies wind forces.

To assess long-term trends in deep ventilation, we analyzed data from two moorings within the East Arm (M9 and M14, respectively in 500 and 400m water depth), including years when they were deployed independently or when meteorological stations were inactive. To better understand deep water renewal mechanisms that occur during individual events, we focused on two winters with the most comprehensive coverage of water temperature and meteorological data. In 2007, M9 and M14 were operational simultaneously, complemented by a third mooring (M11 in 175m of water) and a meteorological station both near the eastern end of the East Arm. In 2023, M14 and M9, as well as a weather station at Hurricane Point (the narrowest section of the East Arm) were all simultaneously operational.

For M9 (2003–2012, 2024) and M14 (2007, 2016–2024), a significant series of events during inverse-thermal stratification occurred in each observational year in mid-January. These events were observed to consistently reset the bottom temperature, evident as a rapid cooling as expected from thermobaric instability. We observed two distinct cooling modes. The first is characterized by the sequential vertical descent of cool water plumes through each mooring from top to bottom, which is typically associated with thermobaric instability theory. The second mode involves a sudden horizontal intrusion of colder water at depths of 400 m and 500 m, while the shallower thermistors are less affected. In January 2007, these series of events led to a net cooling of around 0.25°C at the deepest point of the lake (M9) and 0.4°C at M14. In both 2007 and 2024, meteorological data showed that windstorms, necessary to trigger thermobaric instability, accompanied by severe sub-zero air temperatures (reaching -23°C) preceded the bottom water-cooling events. Whether the mechanism of deep-water renewal occurs vertically or horizontally, over two decades of records consistently reveal an interaction between the lake’s deepest regions and surface waters.

How to cite: Alaa Ibrahim, S., E Laval, B., and Vagle, S.: Observations of Mixing and Deep Convection in a deep Fjord-Type Lake, Quesnel Lake, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13090, 2025.

EGU25-13713 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming 

Bo Gai, Rohini Kumar, Frank Hüesker, Chenxi Mi, Xiangzhen Kong, Bertram Boehrer, Karsten Rinke, and Tom Shatwell

Lentic waters integrate atmosphere and catchment processes, and thus ultimately capture climate signals. However, studies of climate warming effects on lentic waters usually do not sufficiently account for a change in heat flux from the catchment through altered inflow temperature and discharge under climate change. This is particularly relevant for reservoirs, which are highly impacted by catchment hydrology and may be affected by upstream reservoirs or pre‐dams. This study explicitly quantified how the catchment and pre‐dams modify the thermal response of Rappbode Reservoir, Germany's largest drinking water reservoir system, to climate change. We established a catchment‐lake modeling chain in the main reservoir and its two pre‐dams utilizing the lake model GOTM, the catchment model mHM, and the stream temperature model Air2stream, forced by an ensemble of climate projections under RCP2.6 and 8.5 warming scenarios. Results exhibited a warming of 0.27/0.15°C decade−1 for the surface/bottom temperatures of the main reservoir, with approximately 8%/24% of this warming attributed to the catchment warming, respectively. The catchment warming amplified the deep water warming more than at the surface, contrary to the atmospheric warming effect, and advanced stratification by about 1 week, while having a minor impact on stratification intensity. On the other hand, pre‐dams reduced the inflow temperature into the main reservoir in spring, and consequently lowered the hypolimnetic temperature and postponed stratification onset. This shielded the main reservoir from climate warming, although overall the contribution of pre‐dams was minimal. Altogether, our study highlights the importance of catchment alterations and seasonality when projecting reservoir warming, and provides insights into catchment‐reservoir coupling under climate change.

How to cite: Gai, B., Kumar, R., Hüesker, F., Mi, C., Kong, X., Boehrer, B., Rinke, K., and Shatwell, T.: Catchments Amplify Reservoir Thermal Response to Climate Warming, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13713, 2025.

EGU25-14268 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Connected reservoirs: modelling aquatic ecosystems along a cascade system in Brazil 

Laura M. V. Soares, Taynara Fernandes, Talita F. G. Silva, and Maria do Carmo Calijuri

Connected reservoirs along cascade systems have been constructed along large rivers worldwide, establishing a network of aquatic environments. To date, modeling studies largely ignore the ecological feedback on water quality in connected reservoirs, thus limiting the ecosystem representation and missing the mechanisms acting between them. Here, we applied a novel modelling framework that fully links reservoir processes along the cascade system, considering the input from each water body to the next in the system. The one-dimensional GLM-AED model was applied to simulate hydrodynamics and biogeochemical processes in six reservoirs along the Tietê River (Brazil) situated in the most populous Brazilian state (24 million inhabitants), playing a relevant role for the energy generation and water supply in the region. The model was run for the 2008-2016 period, calibrated and validated against measured field data. Eighteen scenarios of reducing nutrient loads were simulated to assess how restoration strategies modify the ecological state downstream. All six reservoirs were sensitive to nutrient load reductions, which changed the nutrient retention capacity, and triggered a domino effect along the cascade system, improving the ecological conditions further downstream. It reveals that local restoration strategies devoted to the uppermost reservoir in a cascade system are propagated and amplified along the system. This finding is of primary interest to water managers since the improvements from local strategies into the uppermost reservoir, rather than site-specific, act at catchment scale.

How to cite: M. V. Soares, L., Fernandes, T., F. G. Silva, T., and Calijuri, M. D. C.: Connected reservoirs: modelling aquatic ecosystems along a cascade system in Brazil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14268, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14268, 2025.

EGU25-14922 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

The role of a lateral constriction in controling water exchange and oxygen distribution in a two-basin lake 

Jemima Rama, Tomy Doda, Oscar Sepúlveda Steiner, Hugo N. Ulloa, David Janssen, and Damien Bouffard

Topographic constraints, such as sills or constrictions, play a critical role in regulating water exchange between different basins, often creating complex circulation patterns that influence the transport and distribution of sediments, nutrients, and oxygen. Although extensively studied in oceanography, these topographic features are also present in multi-basin Swiss lakes (e.g., Lake Lucerne, Lake Zug, Lake Lugano) but have received less attention. This study examines the inter- basin exchange in Lake Zug, where two basins, a shallow northern basin (100 m deep) and a deeper southern basin (180 m deep), are connected by a lateral constriction. Lake Zug is meromictic, remaining stratified throughout the year, with anoxic conditions prevailing below approximately 120 m. Consequently, the shallow northern basin remains well-oxygenated, while the bottom 60 m of the southern basin is characterised by anoxic water. Past fine-scale measurements have revealed the presence of oxygen intrusions at depth, suggesting episodic oxygen supply to the anoxic zones of the southern basin.

We hypothesise that the constriction between the basins influences lateral inter-basin exchange, thereby controlling the oxygen supply from the oxic northern basin to the deep anoxic zones of the southern basin. The primary aim of this study is to identify the dynamics within each basin and determine the nature of the hydraulic control exerted by the constriction. By identifying the physical mechanisms that drive inter-basin exchange, this study seeks to clarify the factors influencing oxygen supply in the southern basin and its impact on the vertical zonation of redox processes. A combination of field measurements, including temperature, oxygen, turbidity, and velocity, and a 3D numerical model are employed to investigate both lateral and vertical transport in the lake. Preliminary findings on the dynamics of Lake Zug, with a focus on the physical processes at the constriction, will be presented. An understanding of the hydraulic control in Lake Zug could enhance our knowledge of exchange flows and their impact on oxygen distribution in multi-basin lakes.

How to cite: Rama, J., Doda, T., Sepúlveda Steiner, O., N. Ulloa, H., Janssen, D., and Bouffard, D.: The role of a lateral constriction in controling water exchange and oxygen distribution in a two-basin lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14922, 2025.

EGU25-16167 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

Mitigating Climate Change Impacts with Agricultural Practices in a Coastal Lagoon 

Inmaculada Concepcion Jiménez-Navarro, Adrián López-Ballestero, Jorrit P. Mesman, Dennis Trolle, Don Pierson, and Javier Senent-Aparicio

Aquatic ecosystems are essential for human well-being, yet they are increasingly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Effective management of lakes and lagoons depends on understanding the interactions between their drainage basins and water bodies. This study addresses these dynamics in the Mar Menor, one of Europe’s largest saltwater lagoons, located in southeastern Spain. Intensive agricultural activities in its catchment have driven a eutrophication crisis, marked by recurrent algal blooms and anoxic events. To assess the impact of climate change and agricultural practices, we developed an integrated modeling framework by coupling the SWAT+ model for the watershed with the GOTM-WET model for the lagoon. Using bias-corrected climate projections from five global models, we simulated future runoff, sediment transport, and nutrient loading under various management scenarios, along with key lagoon conditions such as oxygen levels and chlorophyll-a concentrations to evaluate the frequency of hypoxia and algal blooms. Results indicate that more intense precipitation events will increase runoff, leading to an 11% rise in sediment transport and a significant increase in phosphorus input to the lagoon, more than doubling current levels. Consequently, the frequency and duration of algal blooms and anoxic conditions are expected to worsen. Among the evaluated management strategies, crop rotation was the most effective for reducing sediment transport (by approximately 50%), while contour farming yielded the greatest reductions in algal bloom days (from 93 to 29) and anoxia days (from 45 to 9). Moreover, combining all proposed practices produced a synergistic effect, enhancing resilience against climate change impacts. These findings underscore the importance of holistic management approaches to safeguard the ecological health of the Mar Menor and similar vulnerable aquatic systems. This study forms part of the AGROALNEXT programme and was supported by MCIN with funding from European Union NextGenerationEU (PRTR-C17.I1).

How to cite: Jiménez-Navarro, I. C., López-Ballestero, A., Mesman, J. P., Trolle, D., Pierson, D., and Senent-Aparicio, J.: Mitigating Climate Change Impacts with Agricultural Practices in a Coastal Lagoon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16167, 2025.

EGU25-16785 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Hydropower water level regulation: effects on the ice cover of two Norwegian reservoirs 

Francesca Hinegk, Ana Adeva Bustos, and Marco Toffolon

In regions with freezing lakes, the stability and bearing capacity of lake ice cover are crucial to the safety of communities whose activities revolve around lake ice, and animals crossing the lake’s surface. In hydropower (HP) reservoirs, the development and integrity of the ice cover are influenced by the artificial movement of water, which alters the lake’s flow and thermal structure, and generates rapid and intense changes in water level. Knowledge of ice conditions and of safe limits for water level variations is therefore particularly important in these systems. However, monitoring the ice cover is often logistically challenging and there is still a limited understanding of the extent to which HP strategies for water level regulation can improve or disrupt the stability of the ice sheet, especially in reservoirs with complex bathymetry.

In this study, we investigate the state of the ice cover of two Norwegian HP reservoirs with complex bathymetry and large and frequent variations in water level, where ice monitoring is minimal to absent. We inspected multi-sensor remote sensing data (SAR and optical) over nine winters (2014-2023) to detect the presence of cracks and discontinuities in the ice sheet. We then analyzed water level and meteorological data to identify the primary driver and mechanism of cracking and used simple mechanical and thermal expansion models to interpret the results and isolate the effects of water level variations from those of temperature fluctuations. The satellite data revealed the presence of large cracks in the ice cover of the two reservoirs in each of the nine winters. The cracks consistently appeared in early winter (December/January), propagating from bathymetric obstacles such as sharp-edged coastal protrusions, rocks and islands, and persisted throughout the winter. The results of the mechanical model are consistent with this observation, showing that even a moderate decrease in water level can lead to cracking when an intermediate support (given by the bathymetric obstacle) is present. The analysis of water level and air temperature also supports this crack-formation mechanism, as a predominance of drops in water level is measured prior to the appearance of cracks, while no preferential dynamics in terms of warming or cooling are registered before cracking. These results suggest that the primary mechanism of crack formation in the ice cover of our study sites is the intense stress concentration above bathymetric obstacles encountered by the ice sheet during water level descent. This underlines the importance of investigating the role that modulation strategies of HP operations can play in maintaining or compromising the stability of the ice cover during the critical period for crack formation. We believe that further studies should extend this research to other systems with complex bathymetry and test the effects of environmental constraints on the rate of water level descent in monitored reservoirs.

How to cite: Hinegk, F., Adeva Bustos, A., and Toffolon, M.: Hydropower water level regulation: effects on the ice cover of two Norwegian reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16785, 2025.

EGU25-17024 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Combining SAR and numerical modeling to reconstruct wind, waves and surface currents in Lake Garda, Italy 

Ali Farrokhi, Marina Amadori, and Marco Toffolon

Water quality and ecology in lakes depend on mixing and transport processes, hence on hydrodynamics. Understanding these processes requires a conceptual model, usually supported by measurements and numerical simulations. In situ measurements are carried out using various devices, such as thermistor chains and ADCPs, which have high temporal resolution but are very local. Conversely, remote sensing can provide large-scale spatial information, but only in the surface layers and often at low frequency, as in the case of satellite imagery. As the main driver of lake motions is typically wind, knowledge of the meteorological forcing and its spatial distribution is also crucial and is often a major source of uncertainty in lake models. Numerical models can be used to integrate this information, which in turn allows them to be calibrated and validated.

In recent years, Earth observation products have become increasingly more used. Satellite imagery is often used in inland water quality studies (multispectral imagery), while radar products, such as those derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), are mostly used in open waters such as oceans, seas, and very large lakes. In this contribution, we focus on the use of SAR imagery to reconstruct the wind field, surface currents, and wind waves, in a medium-sized lake (Lake Garda, Italy). For this purpose, we have developed a modeling chain consisting of three numerical models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), providing the spatio-temporal distribution of meteorological variables; Delft3D, forced by WRF, simulating the three-dimensional flow field and heat and mass transport; SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), modeling the surface wind waves with a two-way coupling with Delft3D. Following a common approach, Delft3D was calibrated against pointwise in-situ measurements (vertical profiles of velocity and temperature, floating drifters’ trajectories) and validated considering spatial patterns of temperature and turbidity obtained from multispectral imagery. 

As a novel element of the analysis, we used SAR backscatter amplitude and Doppler anomaly obtained by COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) to reconstruct wind speed and Surface Radial Velocity (SRV), respectively, by applying a Geophysical Model Function (GMF). The wind field reconstructed for Lake Garda with this approach shows consistent spatial distribution and magnitude when compared to the WRF results. The SRV obtained from CSK, on the other hand, shows a qualitative agreement with the results obtained from Delft3D+SWAN, but an overestimation of the magnitude of the flow current. 

We are now planning an intensive field campaign in winter 2025, with in-situ measurements in parallel with satellite SAR and ground radar observations, to revise the GMF and further improve the understanding of how wind waves and bulk currents contribute to the SAR signal. The final goal is to derive detailed information of wind speed, wave amplitude and surface currents directly from Earth observation even in medium-sized lakes. 

How to cite: Farrokhi, A., Amadori, M., and Toffolon, M.: Combining SAR and numerical modeling to reconstruct wind, waves and surface currents in Lake Garda, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17024, 2025.

Urban water bodies, such as lakes in the rapidly growing cities of the Global South, are being severely impacted by unsustainable urbanisation. This has resulted in tremendous stress on the interconnected system of lakes in Bengaluru, India. Existing studies related to degradation of lakes considers individual lakes as the unit of analysis, thus  failing to address the issues due to the interconnected or cascaded nature of lakes in the city. To address these gaps, this study adopts lake series scale as the unit of analysis, to analyse the cascading impacts of urbanisation, focusing on the severely degraded Yele Mallappa Shetty Lake Series (YMSLS) in Bengaluru.

The study uses SRTM DEM(30m) for delineation of individual lake catchment areas and identify stream orders for spatial analysis. Further, extent of urbanisation in the catchment is quantified by the Land use land cover (LULC) change analysis(1993-2023) using supervised classification techniques with Landsat 5 (TM, 30m) and Landsat 8 (OLI+TIRS, 30m) satellite images. Spatio-temporal variation of surface water quality of lakes in the catchment is analysed using the Weighted Arithmetic Water Quality Index (WAWQI) and the Overall Index of Pollution (OIP) derived from monthly water quality data (2023-2024). 

LULC change analysis revealed that in 1993, the YMSLS catchment area comprised open spaces (53.4%) and agricultural land with vegetation (35%), while built-up areas were limited to 7.2%. However, by 2023, the built-up area expanded to 34.6% of the 285 sq. km catchment, becoming the dominant land use. Rapid urbanisation has led to improper disposal of wastewater and caused water quality degradation and increase in aquatic vegetation growth in the lakes. Temporal analysis of surface water quality showed seasonal variations, wherein the WAWQI and OIP values were lowest during the post-monsoon season (Mean ± SD; 107.9 ± 43.5, 4.4 ± 1.3), followed by the monsoon season (109.3 ± 44; 4.6 ± 1.87), and peaked in the summer season (193.5 ± 62.1; 4.8 ± 1.3). Spatial analysis showed that lakes receiving inflows from higher-order streams located at downstream areas exhibited higher WQI values, indicating greater pollution levels compared to lakes associated with first order streams located in upstream areas. Additionally, the individual catchment area of lakes demonstrated a strong positive correlation with WAWQI (r = 0.71, p < 0.05) and a moderate positive correlation with OIP (r = 0.6, p < 0.05). The spatio-temporal analysis demonstrates the flushing of pollution loads, including aquatic vegetation, from upstream to downstream lakes, with the reduction in pollution levels in upstream lakes facilitated by interconnectivity of lakes.

The study highlights the urgent need for an integrated approach following hydrological units, rather than the currently adopted administrative or lake-centric units, to effectively manage interconnected lakes and their catchments. A lake series approach addresses spatial interdependencies and cascading impacts, essential for sustainable lake management and water security in urban, water-stressed regions like Bengaluru.

How to cite: Mampilamthoda, P. and Chinnasamy, P.: Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Surface Water Quality in Cascaded Lake Systems Due to Urbanisation: An Integrated Lake Series Approach for Bengaluru, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18725, 2025.

EGU25-18885 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.4

Three-dimensional thermo-hydrodynamic modeling of stratified inland waterbodies using Telemac3D 

Zeno Geddo, Alice Marquet, Arthur Guillot Legoff, Brigitte Vinçon Leite, Sebastien Boyaval, and Minh Hong Le

This study focuses on a three-dimensional (3D) thermo-hydrodynamic model aimed to simulate the full dynamics of stratified freshwaters.  Based on the Navier-Stokes and energy balance equations (Grieffies, 2018), the mathematical model here considered is well suited for resolving convection and heat transfer within inland waterbodies. The solutions of the governing equations here considered are approximated numerically using a finite element scheme implemented within the Telemac3D framework (https://opentelemac.org), a well documented open-source hydrodynamic modeling software chosen for its efficiency and ability to handle complex geometries. While Telemac3D has been extensively applied to river and coastal simulations, its use in stratified saterbodies modeling is less common, highlighting the need for further validation studies regarding thermal stratification.
To evaluate the performance of Telemac3D and assess its capability of capturing convection and thermal stratification, numerical simulations of Lake Créteil (Greater Paris region, France) are conducted and compared against observational data as well as previous numerical simulations performed using Delft3D (Soulignac et al., 2017), a widely used open-source hydrodynamic modeling software (https://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft3d). Note that, given its limited size, Lake Créteil provides an ideal test case for model validation due to its comprehensive monitoring program and the thorough understanding of its hydrodynamic and thermal processes.
The presented results offer valuable insights for refining and improving thermo-hydrodynamic simulations of freshwaters in particular when using Telemac3D. Accurate modeling of thermo-hydrodynamic processes is indeed crucial for ensuring a reliable coupling with available water quality models, such as the AED2 library (https://aed.see.uwa.edu.au/research/models/AED/), already coupled with Telemac3D, which allows for the simulation of biogeochemical processes like phytoplankton dynamics and element cycling (carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus).


GRIFFIES, Stephen. Fundamentals of ocean climate models. Princeton university press, 2018.
SOULIGNAC, Frédéric, et al. Performance assessment of a 3D hydrodynamic model using high temporal resolution measurements in a shallow urban lake. Environmental Modeling \& Assessment, 2017, 22: 309-322.




How to cite: Geddo, Z., Marquet, A., Guillot Legoff, A., Vinçon Leite, B., Boyaval, S., and Hong Le, M.: Three-dimensional thermo-hydrodynamic modeling of stratified inland waterbodies using Telemac3D, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18885, 2025.

EGU25-20247 | Orals | HS10.4

Achensee and Lk. Teletskoye - 5000 km apart: similarities and differences of two mountain lakes 

Martin Schletterer and Liubov V. Yanygina

Lakes account for 3% of the Earth's surface and they constitute important habitats for manifold biota [1]. In the 19th century at Walden pond (Massachusetts, USA) the research field of limnology developed, which is nowadays dealing with physical, chemical and biotic aspects in all kind of freshwaters [2,3]. While in the past pollution was a main driver in lake ecosystems [4], nowadays rising water temperatures negatively affect Alpine lakes throughout the world [5]. Thus, we selected two mountainous lakes in the Alps as well in the Altai Mountains - two distant, but ecologically similar regions - to compare their characteristics, research history, pressures as well as management strategies.

Lake Achensee is the largest lake (6,8 km²) of the Austrian federal state Tyrol at an altitude of 928.78 m. It`s length is 8.6 km and the maximal depth amounts to 133.02 m. Investigations of the lake started in the beginning of the 20th century, focusing on zooplankton [6] and bathymetry. Since 1927 this natural lake is used as a reservoir for hydropower production, with water level fluctuations of up to 5 m. In the 1970ties intensified tourism, resulted in an eutrophication of the lake and blooms of Planktothrix rubescens. Since the construction of a sewer around the lake, the situation improved, and it is again considered as an oligotrophic lake since the end of the 20th century. Commercial fisheries were stopped in 2000, due to reduced stocks (reduction of nutrients) as well as the occurrence of Triaenophorus crassus [7]. Nowadays only recreational fishing takes place. In Europe lakes > 50 hectares are assessed regularly under the WFD, including the biological quality elements phytoplankton, macrophytes and fish – revealing a good ecological potential of the lake.

The 78 km long Lake Teletskoye (Altyn-Kol) is the largest (223 km²) and deepest (up to 325 m) lake of the Russian Altai at an altitude of 434 m. It has been known since the 17th century, but the first large-scale studies, including bathymetric measurements and hydrobiological collections, started only in 1901 [9]. This cold oligotrophic lake is characterized by very low fish productivity. Attempts to organize industrial fishing were made in the 1930ties, but the fishery was considered impractical. At the same time, Lake Teletskoye is one of the largest tourist and recreational centers in Russia, and in conditions of outbound tourism restrictions, the tourist flow increases annually. The state environmental monitoring of the lake includes hydrological and hydrochemical measurements only. Since 1987, a scientific floating station of the Russian Academy of Sciences is operating on the lake, whose tasks include analyzing long-term changes in the composition and structure of aquatic communities [e.g. 10, 11]. The available data indicate the high ecological status of Lake Teletskoye.

Our synthesis highlights, that long-term data is crucial in order to understand changes related to human activities as well as climate change. We exemplify dynamics and catchment interactions of mountain lakes, using two lakes and discuss similarities and differences.

How to cite: Schletterer, M. and Yanygina, L. V.: Achensee and Lk. Teletskoye - 5000 km apart: similarities and differences of two mountain lakes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20247, 2025.

EGU25-20547 | ECS | Orals | HS10.4

  Seasonality of Zooplankton Diel Vertical Migration in Lake Geneva: Insights from the Floating Laboratory LéXPLORE 

Wyndel Sañoza, Tomy Doda, Nischal Devkota, Grégoire Mariéthoz, and Marie-Elodie Perga

Zooplankton exhibit a behavioral adaptation against predation called diel vertical migration (DVM). Understanding DVM of zooplankton is crucial for unravelling nutrient cycling in large lakes. Lake Geneva makes a great study site due to LEXPLORE, a floating laboratory that continuously monitors the lake. To investigate DVM, we use a 2-year continuous ADCP backscattering record collected at 10-min temporal resolution. However, ADCP data are influenced by noise due to high frequency signals coming from fishes or other unwanted acoustic signals. Therefore, this study focuses on leveraging signal filtering techniques to remove noise and reveal clearly the biologically relevant patterns in zooplankton behaviour. We employ temporal smoothing and frequency band filtering to enhance the clarity of DVM. Then, we quantify the seasonal changes in the vertical migration dynamics of zooplankton i.e. migration timing, rate, and amplitude. These findings provide a refined ADCP data in quantifying migration patterns while further linking them to environmental factors such as light, turbidity, primary productivity, etc. This study highlights the value of repurposing ADCP data for biological research, providing a high-resolution tool for monitoring zooplankton dynamics in lakes. 

How to cite: Sañoza, W., Doda, T., Devkota, N., Mariéthoz, G., and Perga, M.-E.:   Seasonality of Zooplankton Diel Vertical Migration in Lake Geneva: Insights from the Floating Laboratory LéXPLORE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20547, 2025.

EGU25-20975 | Orals | HS10.4

Artificial Intelligence predictive models for diurnal and seasonal shallow lake turnovers 

Hossein Amini, Man Yue Lam, and Reza Ahmadian

Eutrophication, usually caused by excessive nutrients from human activities, may cause dire environmental consequences such as harmful algal blooms and fish kills. Turnover in eutrophic and stratified lakes is dangerous for aquatic life. Solutions such as reducing stormwater run-off and lake restoration are costly and take years to develop. Therefore, real-time modelling and intervention of lake turnovers are important for improving water quality and aquatic life. Mechanistic models that solve the equations governing the lake processes require significant computational time and are not suitable for real-time modelling. A priori knowledge of the processes is required. This research develops Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for turnovers in Eymir Lake, Turkey with an aim to develop autonomous pre-emptive water quality measurement and intervention systems as well as to understand the factors causing lake turnovers. Because there is no consensus as to the best indicating parameters for lake turnovers, AI models with three separate turnover related target variables, namely (i) difference in dissolved oxygen; (ii) difference in temperature; and (iii) the average of (i) and (ii) were trained and compared. To test the effect of time-lagging on prediction accuracy, predictor variables with time lags of 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 18 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, 5 days and 7 days were used as AI model inputs. AI models for different timescales are developed because the controlling parameters for short- and long-term turnovers are different. Fourier transform and high-pass filters were applied to separate the data into short-term (within 2 days) and long-term time series. The effects of temperature, wind speed, dissolved oxygen, and surface water temperature on turnover dynamics were investigated, concentrating on spring turnover in Eymir Lake. The findings from the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for short-term data show that: i) Adding time-lagged input factors greatly increased the accuracy of turnover forecasts contributed to the prediction, except for surface water temperature without time lags; and ii) "Temperature Difference" is the best variable to be considered as the target. These results can help develop better forecasting models and offer insightful information on the intricate interactions between variables causing lake turnover events. As a threshold temperature difference indicating lake turnover is not available, such a threshold was determined with an unsupervised K-Means cluster algorithm. The algorithm differentiates the data into two different phases, namely 1) Mixing phase, and 2) Stratification phase. In future, the data analysis results will be connected to the physical lake processes with the help of e.g. Schmidt stability coefficient. Wavelet analysis will be conducted on the data to further determine underlying seasonal trends of the input-target relationship.

How to cite: Amini, H., Lam, M. Y., and Ahmadian, R.: Artificial Intelligence predictive models for diurnal and seasonal shallow lake turnovers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20975, 2025.

EGU25-21771 | Orals | HS10.4

The maintenance of intermediate redox states in deep waters of Lake Zug 

David Janssen, Jemima Rama, Pasqualina Vonlanthen DiNenna, Yana Kirichenko, Oscar Sepúlveda Steiner, Tomy Doda, and Damien Bouffard

In the absence of O2, anaerobic biogeochemical cycling is driven by a host of electron acceptors (Mn(IV), NO3-, Fe(III), SO42-), with decreasing energy yield for equivalent reactions. The anoxic environments in which these chemical species drive biogeochemical cycling have a disproportionately high impact on global processes through their roles in climate-active gas fluxes, regulating nutrient availability, and sequestration of trace elements. In modern surface waters, such environments can be found year-round in marine basins with limited deep-water renewal (e.g., the Black and Baltic Seas) and in lakes where vertical mixing is restricted, for example, by strong salinity-driven density gradients (e.g., Lake Cadagno). Despite a range of potential electron acceptors, in most systems these are quickly exhausted, resulting in more strongly reducing anoxic environments, characterized by either high dissolved Fe (ferruginous) or sulfide (euxinic) concentrations, reflecting respiration driven by reduction of Fe(III) and SO42-, respectively.

 

Lake Zug (Switzerland) is an exception to this, with the maintenance of an intermediate anoxic redox state. The south basin of Lake Zug (198 m deep) is anoxic for approximately the lower 60-70 m, with some seasonal and interannual variation. Deep waters have been regularly anoxic since monitoring began in the 1950s; however, despite the stability of anoxia, the typical strongly reducing ferruginous or euxinic conditions found in other such basins are not reached. Instead, NO3- concentrations remain moderate in anoxic waters, with minimal NO2- and with NH4+ accumulating only well below the oxic-anoxic interface. Similarly, Mn is reactive across the oxic-anoxic interface, with the reduction of manganese oxides and the accumulation of dissolved Mn(II). However, both Fe and SO42- show low reactivity across the oxic-anoxic interface, with minimal net Fe(III) and SO42- reduction apparent throughout almost the entire anoxic zone. This strongly contrasts other seasonally (or permanently anoxic systems (e.g., the Black & Baltic Seas, Saanich Inlet, Lake Pavin, Lake Matano). This high abundance of electron acceptors in anoxic Lake Zug water, in contrast to other anoxic basins, has implications for the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients and climate active gasses. Potential mechanisms for maintaining this state, as well as influences on redox-sensitive major and minor elements, will be discussed.

How to cite: Janssen, D., Rama, J., Vonlanthen DiNenna, P., Kirichenko, Y., Sepúlveda Steiner, O., Doda, T., and Bouffard, D.: The maintenance of intermediate redox states in deep waters of Lake Zug, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21771, 2025.

EGU25-3989 | Orals | HS10.6

Groundwater-borne phosphorus import into Lake Arendsee and its changes over the last 15 years 

Jörg Lewandowski, Mirjam Johanna Pfaff, and Michael Hupfer

Lake Arendsee, a 50 m deep, monomictic lake in north-eastern Germany, has been suffering from anthropogenic eutrophication for more than 40 years. Lake eutrophication is generally associated with phosphorus (P) loads from surface inflows, direct sewage discharges, atmospheric deposition, surface runoff, bathers, waterfowl or other highly visible nutrient sources. In the case of Lake Arendsee previous research has shown that more than 50 % of the P load is due to excessive P inputs from groundwater. The aim of the study is to assess the changes in groundwater P concentrations over the last 15 years and to understand how the P load has changed between two measurement campaigns (2012 & 2022). P in groundwater was determined using permanent wells, temporary piezometers and private domestic wells, the latter sampled as part of Citizen Science campaigns. Lacustrine Groundwater Discharge (LGD) rates for 2022 were determined using temperature (T) lances, KSAT tests, Darcy calculations and hydraulic gradients, allowing the total annual P load to Lake Arendsee to be calculated. Despite a lower number of temporary piezometers installed along the lake shore in 2022 compared to 2012, the results showed similar spatial patterns, indicating the reliability of the method. High P concentrations were particularly common in the urban area. Both campaigns also showed similar patterns, despite using different domestic wells, indicating the reliability of the method. Unfortunately, two different methods for calculating LGD rates for 2012 (temperature lances) and 2022 (KSAT tests) were used. The comparability of the methods is limited but revealed that most groundwater discharge took place along the shore of the City of Arendsee. It is unlikely that the spatial LGD pattern changed within 10 years as there is no reason for a change of hydraulic conductivities. Therefore, the calculation of the annual P loads in 2022 was based on the patterns of exfiltration rates determined using T lances in 2012 but using hydraulic gradients of 2022 to adapt total LGD rates on the situation in 2022. The study shows that P in groundwater in the catchment has remained largely unchanged, with the exception of a few monitoring sites. Due to a decrease in both hydraulic gradients (consecutive dry years) and P in some near-shore temporary piezometers, P loads entering the lake in 2022 are lower than in 2012. Further studies are needed to determine whether the reduced P loads in 2022 will increase to levels similar to those observed in 2012 due to the increase in groundwater and lake water levels in 2024, or whether improvements (e.g. replacement of sewers) in the subsurface catchment of Lake Arendsee are the reason for the reduced P loads. Groundwater is still the major source of the high P concentrations of 180 μg/L in the lake.

How to cite: Lewandowski, J., Pfaff, M. J., and Hupfer, M.: Groundwater-borne phosphorus import into Lake Arendsee and its changes over the last 15 years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3989, 2025.

EGU25-5588 | ECS | Orals | HS10.6

Insights into Riparian Zone Water Chemistry 

Alexey Kuleshov, Natasha Gariremo, Anne Hartmann, Theresa Blume, and Luisa Hopp

Characterizing the spatio-temporal variability of water chemistry in the riparian zone is important for improving our understanding of the fundamental hydrological and biogeochemical processes that influence stream water quality. However, capturing this variability remains challenging due to the complexity of riparian environments, where dynamic surface water-groundwater exchanges, seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels, subsurface heterogeneities, variability in flow paths and diverse land uses affect water chemistry.

In this study, we investigated small-scale variability in shallow groundwater chemistry within the riparian zones of three German headwater catchments located in the Black Forest, Sauerland, and Ore Mountains. These sites vary in land use, geology, climate, and other environmental attributes that potentially shape riparian water chemistry. Between summer and autumn 2022, we installed a total of 167 wells across nine riparian areas (three well fields per catchment). From 2023 to 2024, we conducted 10 snapshot sampling campaigns under a range of wetness conditions: three campaigns in the Black Forest and Sauerland, and four in the Ore Mountains. In total, we collected over 400 groundwater samples, which were analyzed for major cations, anions, and dissolved organic carbon.

Our comprehensive dataset showed pronounced variability in space and also between sampling times in all nine riparian areas. However, spatial variability often exceeded the temporal variability (i.e., the differences between the snapshot campaigns). The magnitude of both spatial and temporal variability  differed among individual ions. In particular, ions primarily linked with weathering processes (Na, Mg, Ca, Si) exhibited lower spatial and temporal variability compared to biogeochemically active solutes (e.g., NO3-, SO42-, DOC). We also examined whether factors such as catchment wetness conditions, the well’s position relative to the stream, and groundwater levels at the time of sampling could explain variability of the individual ions. The results showed that catchment wetness conditions and well position relative to the stream did not consistently explain spatial variability across elements or sites, and groundwater levels at the time of sampling appeared to have an influence only in Sauerland. These findings highlight the complex interplay of factors driving the variability of riparian zone groundwater chemistry across seasons and study sites.

How to cite: Kuleshov, A., Gariremo, N., Hartmann, A., Blume, T., and Hopp, L.: Insights into Riparian Zone Water Chemistry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5588, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5588, 2025.

EGU25-6111 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

Reactive Transport of Nutrients in the Hyporheic Zone: Experiment and Simulation 

Vivek Kumar Gupta and Saumyen Guha

The hyporheic zone (HZ) is crucial for the stream and river ecosystem for attenuation of domestic, agricultural, and industrial pollution. Flow in the hyporheic zone occurs due to bedforms (dunes and ripples), meandering, and the presence of any obstruction. Water from the stream enters this zone and either returns or infiltrates deeper depending on the relative levels of surface water and groundwater. The zone is more reactive for biogeochemical processes due to the influx of nutrients and Pollutants and the mixing of surface water and groundwater. The sediment in HZ can adsorb the nutrients and pollutants, as well as support the growth and metabolism of microorganisms.

The experiments were conducted in a recirculating hyporheic zone flume of 5 m effective length connected to a groundwater reservoir, which allowed us to simulate gaining, losing, and neutral streams by independently adjusting the surface water and groundwater levels. Three artificial sediment dunes were constructed in the shape of asymmetric triangles, 1 m in length and 0.15 m in height at 0.75 m length.

The objective of the experiments was to investigate the transport of a conservative tracer (Br-) and nutrients (NO3-, PO43-, NH4+) within the hyporheic zone and estimate the dispersion and retardation coefficients with the help of simulation. All the experiments were conducted in duplicate. The flow was simulated using the two-dimensional steady-state classical groundwater flow equation, and the transport was simulated using the two-dimensional time-dependent advection-dispersion equation using grid sizes of 0.5 cm x 0.5 cm. The dispersivity and horizontal and vertical dispersion coefficients were estimated using the experiments with the conservative tracer. The retardation coefficients of the nutrients were computed for each of the nutrients. All the parameter estimations were carried out by minimizing the least square errors between the experimental measurements and simulation. Since the transport is time-dependent, parameters were estimated using the data from the measurements at two times and validated using the data from subsequent measurements. Uncertainties of the estimated parameters were also computed.

How to cite: Gupta, V. K. and Guha, S.: Reactive Transport of Nutrients in the Hyporheic Zone: Experiment and Simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6111, 2025.

EGU25-6475 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

A flow model of groundwater-surface water interaction in a drainage trench used for irrigation 

Alessia Amendola, Tiziana Anna Elisabetta Tosco, Alessandro Casasso, and Rajandrea Sethi

The Cuneo Plain (Piedmont, NW Italy), like the whole Po Plain, is characterized by intense agricultural activities that heavily rely on seasonal water availability, which is now challenged by the climate crisis. In the study area, groundwater resources represent a great tool to buffer temporary water scarcity and mitigate the drought risk. The connection between the irrigation network and the unconfined aquifer is made available by the historical drainage trenches, known as fontanili. They were constructed starting from the 11th century with the aim of reclaiming swamps, by lowering the water table, and to provide water for irrigation and drinking purposes. Their configuration was later improved by adding screened boreholes, known as tubi calandra, along the furrows, as they enhance the groundwater flow towards the surface.

This study presents the development of a conceptual and numerical model capable to describe the groundwater - surface water flow interaction in the presence of such structures. The model results were compared to field monitoring data of a fontanile located in the Cuneo province, Italy. The flow model was developed in Hydrus (PC-Progress), solving the Richard’s equation and allowing to model the water flow also in the vadose zone. The Finite Element Mesh consists of a network of triangular (2D) or tetrahedral (3D) elements, refined at the base of the furrow and around the tubi calandra. The 2D model of a transversal section of the trench was implemented to study the hydraulic connection to the phreatic aquifer, whereas, the 3D model was used to estimate evolution of the drainage capacity, and therefore of the discharge, along the furrow. The model was forced with head boundary conditions, applied upstream of the fontanile and at the screened boreholes, instead, an aquiclude was imposed at the bottom of the saturated thickness. Afterwards, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the drainage capacity of the trench under different scenarios of aquifer hydraulic conductivity, upstream hydraulic head and, finally, length and radius of the tubo calandra.

The numerical model allowed to have a clearer picture of the mechanisms controlling the discharge in the fontanili, both in terms of their connection directly to the water table, as well as the contribution of the tubi calandra. In particular, for the latter a suitable range of granulometry and conductivity of the soil was identified to maximize their performance. The results are particularly meaningful as they contribute to the sustainable management of water resources in the area, coupling groundwater and surface water, so that a careful planning of the resource to meet the irrigation demand can be developed.

How to cite: Amendola, A., Tosco, T. A. E., Casasso, A., and Sethi, R.: A flow model of groundwater-surface water interaction in a drainage trench used for irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6475, 2025.

Residence time distribution of solute in the hyporheic zone plays a key role in controlling the downstream transport and biogeochemical transformation of dissolved substances in river corridors. Riverbed morphology, hyporheic hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater upwelling/downwelling condition are crucial factors that control the resulting residence time distribution. In particular, these factors can exhibit spatial variations at different length scales leading to a complex multi-scale organization of hyporheic flow paths.  In this context, we analyze the dominance or otherwise of spatial heterogeneity in the morphology of the riverbed, in the arrangement of hyporheic hydraulic conductivity, and in the organization of upwelling/downwelling flows. We frame our work in a stochastic context, i.e., we treat each factor as a spatially correlated random field, characterized by its degree of heterogeneity and its spatial correlation scale. We explore different combinations, in relative terms, of the degree of heterogeneity and the size of the correlation lengths of the different factors. We use a Monte Carlo approach for each combination to solve flow and solute transport for different realizations numerically. Results indicate the transition between the dominance of a given single factor and the complex interactions of all factors depending on (i) the target feature of the residence time distribution (e.g., mean, variance) and (ii) the relative degree of heterogeneity and spatial correlation of different single factors.

How to cite: Dell Oca, A. and Ackerer, P.: Hyporheic residence time distribution: scanning heterogeneity in riverbed morphology, hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater flux., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6524, 2025.

Hydraulic structures affect rive environment, leading to changes in groundwater and surface water interactions. In South Korea, 8 weirs were installed in Nakdonggang River, in 2012, to secure sufficient water resources. This study aims to analyze the impacts of weir operation on the integrated water environment in the Nakdonggang River basin, South Korea. A basin-scale hydrological model for Nakdonggang River basin was developed to simulate the groundwater and surface water dynamics using HydroGeoSphere, three-dimensional fully integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model. Our results showed that the overall fluctuations in river flow decreased, while the river temperature increased during weir operation. In addition, groundwater delays hydrological responses within the integrated water environment of the study area and, in particular, plays a critical role in mitigating seasonal fluctuations in surface water flow. This study highlights the importance of integrated groundwater and surface water management to sustain the health of the integrated water environment, address future climate change, and reduce vulnerability to anthropogenic environmental changes and climatic variability.

How to cite: Lee, H., Lee, E., Park, D., and Hwang, H.-T.: Changes in Groundwater and Surface Water Interactions due to Weir Operation in the Nakdonggang River Basin, Korea, Using an Integrated Hydrological Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7594, 2025.

EGU25-7823 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

New Models Simulating Aquifer Tests with No Parameter Correlation and Low Computational Cost 

Chen Wang and Ching-Sheng Huang

Well drilling for aquifer tests creates a skin zone with hydraulic properties distinct from the surrounding aquifer formation. The skin zone affects the tests and interpretations of hydraulic properties of the formation. Traditional models attempt to address this issue by incorporating a governing equation to describe flow or transport in the skin zone. However, these methods face challenges such as parameter correlation, where multiple parameter estimates produce the same agreement between measured data and model predictions, making it impossible to obtain reliable and objects parameter estimates. Additionally, numerical solutions for traditional models require fine grids to discretize skin zone and coarse grids for the formation, resulting in excessive grid numbers, and high computational costs. This study introduces new models for slug test and tracer test. Both analytical and numerical solutions of the models are developed. Results indicate the new models achieve predictions comparable to the traditional models while effectively addressing the issues of parameter correlation and the need for fine skin discretization. This study provides theoretical insights and practical applications for groundwater remediation and resource management.

How to cite: Wang, C. and Huang, C.-S.: New Models Simulating Aquifer Tests with No Parameter Correlation and Low Computational Cost, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7823, 2025.

EGU25-8461 | Orals | HS10.6

Is the hyporheic zone a source or a sink of DOM? 

Clara Mendoza-Lera, Ada Pastor, Anna Lupon, Núria Catalán, and Thibault Datry

The role of streams in dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluxes is widely acknowledged, yet the contribution of the hyporheic zone (Hz) to these dynamics remains unclear. For inorganic species of nitrogen, the Hz has been reported to be a sink, but what could be expected for DOM? We propose that the contribution of the Hz to stream DOM dynamics is conditioned by the water connectivity between surface and Hz (i.e., hyporheic flow). As hyporheic flow increases, DOM will tend to be removed by the microbial activity associated to the sediments in the Hz. While as hyporheic flow decreases, the microbial community will release DOM, acting as a source. We tested this hypothesis in two reaches, one with high hyporheic flow (connected reach) and another without hyporheic flow (disconnected reach), combining measurements at reach- and patch-scale of relative hyporheic flow with pore water sampling to determine DOM quantity and properties. We observed that at the reach scale, the connected reach tended to be a sink while the connected one was rather a source. Within the hyporheic zone, at the patch-scale, the areas with low hyporheic flow tended to have higher production of DOM than those more connected. Our results suggest that the contribution of the HZ to reach-scale DOM dynamics may be driven by hyporheic flow, and whether it is a source or a sink will result from the interplay among hyporheic areas with different degree of hyporheic flow. 

How to cite: Mendoza-Lera, C., Pastor, A., Lupon, A., Catalán, N., and Datry, T.: Is the hyporheic zone a source or a sink of DOM?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8461, 2025.

EGU25-9449 | ECS | Orals | HS10.6

A Cost-Effective Probe for High-Resolution Monitoring of Hyporheic Zone Dynamics 

P Kedarnath Reddy and Sumit Sen

Surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) interact with each other in almost all types of landscapes forming a hydrological continuum known as a hyporheic zone. Interest in these water exchanges has increased due to their impact on both resources. With changing climate and population growth, managing and understanding these exchanges becomes important as these have been strongly advocated to improve water quality.

Despite its importance, more standardized methods are needed. Traditional methods using chemical tracers or seepage meters are labour-intensive labor-intensive. Hence in recent times dependency on temperature as a tracer has gained significant attention. Different techniques and instruments have been developed to use temperature to detect these exchanges, which can collect sub-hourly data without human intervention. Whereas, these off-the-shelve instruments become expensive in the developing world context.  

Hence, to have repeated observations catering to the socio-economic conditions of a region. We sought to develop a cost-effective probe for determining flux rates in the hyporheic zone using open source system, which can be deployed with high spatiotemporal coverage (amounts to ~100$ (that includes a data-logger, waterproof sensors (as many are required), Real-time clock, etc.). The hybrid probe developed can measure Vertical Hydraulic Gradient (VHG) values and temperature values at required depths. The probe is designed in such a way that, depending on the site of installation and depth of interest the sensor on the probe could be customized.

The probe has been tested with HOBO Tidbit sensors (off-the-shelve) at an upwelling location of a meander bend section at a headwater stream in the mountainous region of the Indian Himalayas. The values from the developed instrumentation had a strong correlation (>0.85) with those from the HOBO Tidbit sensor, indicating the reliability and accuracy of the newly developed probe.

Additionally, the flux values derived from the probe data provide us with valuable insights into GW-SW interactions, especially in the unexplored Himalayan headwater catchments. The probe’s low cost enables micro-monitoring of field sites with additional instrumentation, allowing for the collection of spatially and temporally robust data, thereby enhancing our physical understanding of GW-SW interfaces.

How to cite: Reddy, P. K. and Sen, S.: A Cost-Effective Probe for High-Resolution Monitoring of Hyporheic Zone Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9449, 2025.

EGU25-12075 | Orals | HS10.6

About the stability of hyporheic flows in a losing river section 

Olivier Bour, Nataline Simon, Joris Heyman, and Alain Crave

Hyporheic fluxes are typically regarded as highly variable both in space and time at the stream‐groundwater interface. However, Active‐Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) experiments conducted in a losing river section demonstrated low spatial variability (one order of magnitude) and remarkable temporal stability. In this abstract, we investigate the potential reasons for the observed low variability and notable stability of hyporheic flows.

Experiments were conducted by burying several hundred meters of heatable Fiber‐Optic cables within streambed sediments in a large meander, where permanent stream‐losing conditions are observed. The absence of correlation between water fluxes in the hyporheic zone and variations in streambed topography suggests that the low spatial variability (one order of magnitude) of fluxes serves as an indicator of the low variability in streambed hydraulic conductivities. Repeated measurements taken during several field campaigns over three years demonstrated a remarkable stability of hyporheic flows throughout this period. To explain our findings, we analyzed the temporal variability of river stage and groundwater levels. Despite the rapid and sudden fluctuations of water levels, caused by upstream dam hydropeaking and groundwater pumping in the alluvial aquifer, the hydraulic gradients between the river and the aquifer remained relatively stable over time. Moreover, the speed at which the levels rebalance suggests that flows at the interface are primarily controlled by the high permeability of the streambed sediments rather than by the boundary conditions. These results can be considered for calibrating models that assess hyporheic processes.

How to cite: Bour, O., Simon, N., Heyman, J., and Crave, A.: About the stability of hyporheic flows in a losing river section, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12075, 2025.

EGU25-12177 | ECS | Orals | HS10.6

Holocene Floodplain Sediments: From depositional processes to biogeochemical pollutant turnover 

Johann Holdt, Vitor Cantarella, Daniel Buchner, Adrian Mellage, Olaf Cirpka, and Jan-Peter Duda

Aquifer sediments, formed under varying depositional conditions, exhibit significant heterogeneity in their sedimentary architecture causing variability in their hydraulic and biogeochemical properties. The spatial arrangement of these properties controls the net turnover of biogeochemically reactive and environmentally relevant solutes in floodplains. However, the interlinkage between reactive and hydraulic properties is still enigmatic. This study proposes using sedimentary facies analyses to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions that control the abundance and spatial distribution of aquifer materials, their potential as electron donors, and their hydraulic conductivity. The approach is applied to a Holocene aquifer in the Ammer floodplain in South-West Germany, which consists mainly of organic-rich tufa successions with varying contents of total organic carbon (TOC), peat lenses, as well as of gravel- and clay layers. The spatial extent of sedimentary features and baseline reactive properties (TOC, hydraulic conductivity) were constrained by combining sedimentological observations and bulk geochemical analyses. Based on the insights gained from the paleoenvironmental reconstruction, a facies-based virtual aquifer resembling the sedimentological makeup of the Ammer floodplain was generated and used to perform flow and transport simulations, using exposure of groundwater to TOC as proxy for reactivity. The study demonstrates that the spatial arrangement of facies and their combined biogeochemical and hydraulic properties determine over which range of times the breakthrough of nitrate is to be expected, highlighting the importance of sedimentological insights for groundwater-quality projections.

How to cite: Holdt, J., Cantarella, V., Buchner, D., Mellage, A., Cirpka, O., and Duda, J.-P.: Holocene Floodplain Sediments: From depositional processes to biogeochemical pollutant turnover, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12177, 2025.

This review is motivated by deep concern over the current, relatively fragmented state of lake and groundwater research. For example, Chinese mega lake basins such as Lake Taihu, Dongting, Poyang, Hongze, and Chaohu are not only major cropland areas but also habitats for over 120 million residents. These lakes have faced serious issues for decades, such as the rapid shrinking of water areas and volume in Poyang, and severe eutrophication and algal blooms in Taihu and Chaohu. Despite significant efforts by environmental and limnology scientists to prevent these eco-environmental problems and restore ecosystem services, these uninvited guests continue to harass the lake systems. This underscores the need for optimal management, protection, and restoration of lake eco-environments, which should encompass both visible surface water and invisible groundwater.
Lakes are always the outcrops of the regional groundwater system. To gain a comprehensive understanding of hydrological and biogeochemical functions, and to pave the way for better lake eco-environmental protections and restoration, we must carefully consider the role of groundwater inflow, specifically lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD), and the associated biogeochemical fluxes. In this review, we first provide a historical and comprehensive overview of groundwater-lake water interaction studies in China. Our main finding shows that over 22% of lakes, among the 673 lakes with areas exceeding 10 km², were identified as groundwater discharge lakes prior to the 2000s. Subsequently, the increased study of groundwater-lake water interaction study is discussed in main study areas, e.g. Badain Jaran Desert, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), the middle-lower Yangtze plains, Volcanic and Maar lakes etc. The current state of study is encapsulated by examining the study methods and techniques employed, with a particular emphasis on the study of lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD). Finally, we discuss the major challenges and problems remaining in LGD studies, including driving mechanisms, scale differentiations, and temporal evolutions. This review also aims to advocate for close collaboration between multidisciplinary scientific communities and stakeholders to protect lake environments from a hydrogeological perspective.

How to cite: Zuo, J. and Luo, X.: Lacustrine Groundwater Discharge Studies in China:History, Current State & Future Vision, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12379, 2025.

EGU25-13630 | Posters on site | HS10.6

Toward a universal model of hyporheic exchange and nutrient cycling in streams 

Fulvio Boano, Ahmed Monofy, Stanley Grant, Megan Rippy, Jesus Gomez-Velez, Sujay Kaushal, Erin Hotchkiss, and Sidney Shelton

Transformation and removal of dissolved nutrients and pollutants in streams strongly depends on microbial processes in streambed sediments. The contact between these solutes and microbial communities is mediated by the physical transport from the bulk stream to, and through, the streambed, a process broadly referred to as hyporheic exchange. Even though multiple physical and biological processes influence the rate of hyporheic exchange, we here show that many hyporheic exchange mechanisms can be represented simply as a one‐dimensional diffusion process, where the diffusion coefficient decays exponentially with depth into the streambed. This framework is applied to a classic study of nitrate removal in 72 headwater streams across the United States, showing how the interplay among land‐use, stream physics, and stream biology collectively influence nutrient transformation in streambeds. The proposed modeling framework can help the upscaling of hyporheic exchange and promote better understanding of its role for processing and removal of contaminants in streams.

How to cite: Boano, F., Monofy, A., Grant, S., Rippy, M., Gomez-Velez, J., Kaushal, S., Hotchkiss, E., and Shelton, S.: Toward a universal model of hyporheic exchange and nutrient cycling in streams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13630, 2025.

EGU25-14587 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

Strong Influence of Groundwater Pumping on Streamflow Depletion across North India 

Ritaja Roy and Vimal Mishra

The world’s largest freshwater resource - groundwater is essential for irrigation and food security. However, unsustainable groundwater pumping, exceeding recharge from precipitation, has led to significant groundwater depletion, particularly in intensively irrigated regions like north India, with cascading impacts on streamflow. Groundwater storage losses reduce groundwater discharge to streams, reverse flow directions, or cease discharge entirely, thereby reducing streamflow. Despite its critical implications on water security, ecosystem health, and agricultural sustainability, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability in driving streamflow variability remains poorly understood. Most previous studies often relied on coarse-resolution models that overlook groundwater-surface water interactions and lateral groundwater flow. To address these limitations, we applied the physically based, integrated land surface-groundwater model ParFlow-CLM at a 5 km resolution from 1970 to 2022 across the Ganga and the Indus basins. This physically based model simulates three-dimensional groundwater flow using the Richards equation and couples it with land surface processes, enabling robust analysis of groundwater-streamflow interactions. We find that streamflow variability in north India is primarily driven by groundwater abstraction for irrigation, modulated by precipitation variability. Excessive pumping has shifted streams from gaining groundwater to losing it, approaching critical environmental flow thresholds. The study underscores that prolonged groundwater pumping has significantly reduced baseflow contributions, which has critical implications for water management in India.

How to cite: Roy, R. and Mishra, V.: Strong Influence of Groundwater Pumping on Streamflow Depletion across North India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14587, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14587, 2025.

EGU25-15101 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

Nitrate fate in mixed surface water and groundwater: Role of mixing-dependent denitrification and DNRA in hyporheic zones 

Xue Ping, Zhang Wen, Yang Xian, Stefan Krause, Songhu Yuan, Zhixin Zhang, and Menggui Jin

Hyporheic zones (HZs), where surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) mix underneath and adjacent to streams, are known for their inherent ability to attenuate contaminants. Mixing of reactants from SW and GW enables the occurrence of mixing-dependent reactions, mixing-dependent denitrification is commonly regarded as the last defense against groundwater-bone nitrate before it enters to streams. However, the impact of mixing-dependent DNRA on nitrate transformation is often overlooked. In this study, we conducted a flume experiment to generate downwelling of SW with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) into the sediments and create a hyporheic exchange flow (HEF) cell. We added nitrate to anoxic upwelling GW to stimulate mixing-dependent reactions. Hydrodynamics, hydrochemical conditions, microbial community and its biogeochemical function with respect to nitrogen transformation were tested and analyzed. The SW and GW mixing zone was situated along the fringe of HEF cell. The mixing zone represented a transition zone between the HEF cell and deeper GW in microbial community structure, and hosted active mixing-dependent reaction potentials. Both mixing-dependent denitrification and DNRA occurred, with the hotspots for these processes appearing predominantly on the right side (closer to the GW) and the left side (closer to the HEF cell) of the mixing zone, rather than evenly within it. The downstream and upstream movement of the mixing zone enhances the mixing-dependent denitrification and DNRA reactions. The NH4+ produced by mixing-dependent DNRA would undergo further nitrification within the HEF cell because higher concentrations of nitrification functional genes present upstream. Disregarding the mixing-dependent DNRA would lead to an overestimation of HZs’ capacity to attenuate groundwater-borne nitrate. This study enhances our understanding of nitrate processing within HZs and contributes valuable insights for the effective management of watershed contaminants.

How to cite: Ping, X., Wen, Z., Xian, Y., Krause, S., Yuan, S., Zhang, Z., and Jin, M.: Nitrate fate in mixed surface water and groundwater: Role of mixing-dependent denitrification and DNRA in hyporheic zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15101, 2025.

EGU25-16345 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

Effects of a short-term dry fall of streams on oxygen dynamics in the hyporheic zone 

Alejandra Villa, Cara Baume, Stephanie Spahr, Shai Arnon, and Jörg Lewandowski

Climate change and water resource management may result in the temporary drying up of streams or stream reaches. Such flow interruption has significant effects on biogeochemical processes, particularly on oxygen dynamics in the hyporheic zone. We hypothesized that the hyporheic zone may quickly return to the pre-interruption oxygen pattern once the original flow conditions are restored. To test this, oxygen concentrations were measured in situ in the surface water and pore water of the hyporheic zone using flow-through cells (every 2 cm down to 14 cm in the sediment) and a planar optode placed in the streambed of an urban river. Measurements were taken five days before and fifteen days after a one-day flow interruption at different streamwater velocities ranging from 0.1 m/s to 0.5 m/s. We found that the flow interruption reduced the diurnal amplitude of oxygen in the surface water. At high flow velocities (> 0.3 m/s), the changes in surface water oxygen concentration propagated into the pore water, leading to lower diurnal oxygen amplitudes throughout the sediment depth profile. This alteration affects the biogeochemical milieu in the hyporheic zone and thus the nutrient dynamics and functioning of the ecosystem as a whole. Contrary to the hypothesis, the oxygen dynamics did not return to the pre-interruption oxygen pattern, even three weeks after the streamflow interruption. Both, surface water and pore water had lower oxygen concentrations, which were about 2 mg/L O2 lower than before the flow interruption. The altered vertical gradient and the two-dimensional oxygen patterns in the hyporheic zone caused by even short dry fall of streams highlight the impact on the oxygen dynamics of river ecosystems. It also emphasizes the need for sustainable water management strategies to mitigate the long-term ecosystem consequences of flow intermittency.

How to cite: Villa, A., Baume, C., Spahr, S., Arnon, S., and Lewandowski, J.: Effects of a short-term dry fall of streams on oxygen dynamics in the hyporheic zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16345, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16345, 2025.

Estimating in-stream mixing lengths is important in the context of salt dilution gauging, but also in the context of stream water quality assessments. Underestimating the mixing length can lead to large errors and misinterpretations of your data.  Playing it safe and going with an overly long mixing length can also introduce errors. For example, the underlying assumption of salt dilution gauging of conservation of mass might be violated when stream losses become significant. However, despite their importance, mixing length estimates are often only based on experience or empirical equations.

In this study we estimated the mixing lengths for 10 different stream reaches in two mid-mountain headwater streams. Three tracer experiments were carried out at each stream reach: dye injection and salt injections, here both as slug and constant rate injections. Breakthrough curves of the salt injections were monitored using 20 electric conductivity sensors. The results of the tracer injections are then compared to other common methods of mixing length estimation and the implications are discussed.

How to cite: Blume, T. and Adeberg, F.: A systematic analysis of in-stream mixing lengths in two mid-mountain headwater streams: incongruities, insights and implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17972, 2025.

EGU25-18208 | Posters on site | HS10.6

 Unravelling the Spatial Variability and Complexity of Denitrification in Heterogeneous Aquifer Sediments   

Daniel Buchner, Johann Holdt, Vitor Cantarella, Adrian Mellage, Olaf Cirpka, and Jan-Peter Duda

Nitrate pollution of groundwater represents a critical environmental concern, with many aquifers exceeding ecological and health-related concentration limits. Microbial driven denitrification represents the primary mechanism for nitrate attenuation in aquifers. Despite a robust understanding of individual transformation steps, predicting nitrate turnover in the complex and heterogeneous subsurface environment of aquifers remains challenging. This is primarily due to the uneven distribution of potential electron donors (e.g., organic carbon) and the variability in local biogeochemical conditions on the aquifer scale. To assess the spatial variability of denitrification at field-relevant scales, we conducted laboratory microcosm experiments were conducted with distinct sedimentary facies from a Holocene aquifer which we previously characterized by paleo environmental reconstruction. The denitrification capacity of anaerobically incubated sediments (n=40) from eight distinct sedimentary facies with varying TOC contents was evaluated by monitoring the concentrations of NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺, N₂O, SO₄²⁻, and DOC over time. Microcosm replicates of the same sedimentary facies at a specific sampling location showed consistent nitrate removal. However, microcosms of the same sedimentary facies at different locations showed significant variability of nitrate removal. The observed variability of a particular sedimentary facies was found to be within the same range as the mean variability observed across different sedimentary facies. Our study indicates that the denitrification potential of heterogenous aquifers is far more complex and variable than commonly assumed and cannot be gauged by evaluating the electron donor distribution.

 

How to cite: Buchner, D., Holdt, J., Cantarella, V., Mellage, A., Cirpka, O., and Duda, J.-P.:  Unravelling the Spatial Variability and Complexity of Denitrification in Heterogeneous Aquifer Sediments  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18208, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18208, 2025.

EGU25-18814 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.6

In situ monitoring of the infiltration of emerging organic compounds from a wastewater-bearing stream into groundwater 

Matthias Bockstiegel, Juan Carlos Richard-Cerda, Edinsson Muñoz-Vega, Selina Hillmann, and Stephan Schulz

Groundwater-surface water interaction (GW-SW interaction) plays a critical role in regulating groundwater quality by mediating the transport and transformation of pollutants. Emerging organic compounds (EOCs), including pharmaceuticals, introduced via wastewater pose a new risk to these systems. Understanding their transport, fate and transformation in these dynamic interfaces is crucial for assessing their impact on water resources.

The present study investigates the GW-SW interaction at the Landgraben stream near Trebur, Germany, which is heavily impacted by industrial and domestic wastewater. We focus on the infiltration, transport, sorption, and degradation of 22 EOCs (e.g. 1,2,3-benzotriazole, carbamazepine, diclofenac, iopromide, metoprolol, valsartanic acid). The interaction is monitored using a combination of self-developed multi-level wells and a multi-level temperature probe. Water samples are taken at daily to monthly intervals in the stream, in the hyporheic zone, and in the riparian zone and are additionally analyzed for field parameters, major ions, trace elements, organic carbon, and rare earth elements.

Preliminary hydraulic results from temperature transport models indicate infiltration rates of approx. 10 cm d⁻¹. High organic matter content in the riverbed combined with dissolved oxygen concentrations below 0.5 mg L⁻¹ in the groundwater indicate suboxic to anoxic conditions. The hydrochemical data show a different behavior of the EOCs depending on their polarity. Mobile substances are detected in the groundwater plume, while immobile compounds such as amisulpride and venlafaxine could only be detected in the surface water, likely due to a high sorption affinity in the hyporheic zone.

This study highlights the significance of GW-SW interactions in influencing the transport and attenuation of EOCs, providing insights into their fate in aquatic systems.

How to cite: Bockstiegel, M., Richard-Cerda, J. C., Muñoz-Vega, E., Hillmann, S., and Schulz, S.: In situ monitoring of the infiltration of emerging organic compounds from a wastewater-bearing stream into groundwater, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18814, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18814, 2025.

EGU25-21812 | ECS | Orals | HS10.6

Assessing the Impacts of Fluvial Flooding and River Bedform Geometry on Hyporheic Exchange Zones  

Mohammed Alharbi, Stefan Krause, Shasha Han, Liwen Wu, and Yiming Li

 The dynamic interaction between surface water and groundwater in the hyporheic exchange zone (HEZ) is crucial for regulating water quality, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem health. Nonetheless, understanding the impact of changing river discharge conditions—especially during peak flow events—and the diverse geometries of bedforms on flow dynamics and biogeochemical processes in the HEZ continues to be a substantial research challenge. This study aims to address this gap using a multiphysic framework to simulate bedform responses to distinct river flow conditions. The model assesses water exchange, pressure distribution, and solute transport under steady and transient states, providing insights into HEZ dynamics. Our study is grounded in extensive field data collected from the Krycklan Catchment in Northern Sweden. Key datasets include piezometer readings of water level and pressure measurements, hydraulic conductivity profiles, and tracer movement through the subsurface, which are used to validate the numerical model. Variables such as discharge intensities, flow duration, and bedform aspect ratios are systematically varied to investigate their effects on hyporheic exchange and residence times. Preliminary results indicate that variations in flow conditions and bedform geometries affect pressure distribution, velocity fields, and flow streamlines within the HEZ. These variations lead to changes in hyporheic exchange extents, especially under peak flow regimes. The findings will enhance our understanding of the impacts of peak flow events on HEZ expansion, contraction, and nutrient cycling. They hold significant implications for river management, particularly in predicting the impact of flood dynamics and preserving freshwater ecosystems. 

How to cite: Alharbi, M., Krause, S., Han, S., Wu, L., and Li, Y.: Assessing the Impacts of Fluvial Flooding and River Bedform Geometry on Hyporheic Exchange Zones , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21812, 2025.

EGU25-180 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Climate warming and nutrient enrichment destabilize plankton network stability over the past century 

Siwei Yu, Xiaofeng Cao, and Jiuhui Qu

Global warming and anthropogenic activities have profoundly altered biodiversity and aquatic ecosystem stability, yet the underlying driving mechanisms remain inadequately understood. Here, we analyzed temporal patterns of biodiversity and community stability over the past century by constructing 29 temporal planktonic network models. These models were based on the sedimentary DNA (sedDNA) extracted from downcore sediments in Lake Chagan, a seasonally frozen lake in Northeastern China, using high-throughput sequencing techniques. Our findings identify the mid-1990s as a critical tipping point, marked by substantial shifts in nutrient levels and annual average temperatures. We demonstrate that the temporal network stability of plankton communities has been predominately compromised by climate warming, followed by nutrient enrichment. Our study highlights the intricate interplay between biotic and abiotic factors in determining the stability of aquatic ecosystems, which have significant implications for the management and conservation of freshwater ecosystems in the face of ongoing climate warming.

How to cite: Yu, S., Cao, X., and Qu, J.: Climate warming and nutrient enrichment destabilize plankton network stability over the past century, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-180, 2025.

The construction and operation of reservoirs disrupt the natural flow regime of rivers, reducing flow velocities and creating prolonged anaerobic conditions, particularly in steep-gradient, deeply incised river channels. These conditions facilitate microbial decomposition of organic matter—originating from terrestrial plants and soils—leading to greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). Cascade reservoir systems, composed of multiple reservoirs connected in an upstream-downstream configuration, introduce further complexities due to the interactions between upstream discharges and downstream reservoirs. These interactions influence water temperature, flow disturbance, and material transport, among other factors.

The study employed the CE-QUAL-W2 model to developed a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model for analyzing carbon transmitting among the five cascade reservoirs along the Wujiang River in Southwest China (Figure 1). This two-dimensional model, uses x-z plane layered grids to simulate water flow, temperature, and carbon cycling dynamics under specific power station intake location scenarios. By simulating these scenarios, we assessed how changes in power station intake elevations influence the carbon balance of individual and cascade reservoir systems.

Figure 1 The Wujiang River basin and the spatial distribution of five cascade reservoirs

The results indicate that for individual reservoirs such as WJD Reservoir, raising the intake elevation of the power station enhances surface water disturbance, which enhanced CO₂ diffusion across the water-air interface near the dam (Figure 2). However, this adjustment significantly reduces carbon release to downstream areas, thereby increasing the reservoir’s overall carbon retention capacity.

Figure 2 Average CO2 diffusion fluxes across the water-air interface in the WJD Reservoir under different scenarios (scenario A-G represent progressively higher intake elevations at the WJD power station.

When the intake elevation of upstream DF Reservoir was raising, its carbon retention capacity improved. However, the warmer discharged water inhibits vertical carbon sedimentation in downstream reservoirs. This led to the accumulation of Total Inorganic Carbon (TIC) and Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in shallow water layers of downstream reservoirs (Figure 3).

Figure 3 Vertical distribution of TOC (left) and TIC (right) at the WJD reservoir dam under different intake elevations of upstream hydropower stations (Scenarios I–V represent progressively higher intake elevations).

Consequently, carbon transport to downstream reservoirs increased, reducing the total carbon sink capacity of the cascade reservoir system. The findings highlight a trade-off between local and system-wide carbon retention in cascade reservoirs. While elevating intake locations at individual reservoirs can improve carbon retention locally, the downstream impacts—such as reduced vertical carbon sedimentation and increased carbon transport—diminish the overall carbon storage efficiency of the cascade reservoirs system. Future reservoir management strategies should consider these complex interactions to balance energy production with environmental sustainability.

How to cite: Wu, X., Wang, Z., and Xiang, X.: The Impact of Water Intake Scheduling on Cascade Reservoirs on the Carbon Balance of Reservoir Systems , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-475, 2025.

EGU25-2230 | ECS | Orals | HS10.7 | Highlight

Tracing ecohydrology and biodiversity in aquatic, urban nature-based solutions integrating water stable isotopes, water chemistry and eDNA  

Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Kati Vierikko, Tobias Goldhammer, Michael T. Monaghan, and Chris Soulsby

The combined effects of rapid urbanization and climate change challenge ecohydrology and water quality in urban systems. Water related nature-based (aquaNBS) solutions such as stormwater ponds and streams are being widely implemented in cities to address ecological and hydrological challenges that threaten urban biodiversity and water security. However, there is still a lack of process-based evidence of ecohydrological interactions in urban aquaNBS, and their relationship to water quality and quantity at the ecosystem level. As part of a pan-European project aimed at understanding ecohydrological functioning and future resilience of aquaNBS, we applied a novel, integrative multi-tracer approach using stable water isotopes, hydrochemistry and environmental DNA to disentangle the effects of urbanization and hydroclimate on ecohydrological dynamics in urban aquaNBS. Insights from stable isotopes and microbial data show a strong influence of urban water sources (i.e. treated effluent, urban surface runoff) across stream NBS. This highlights potential limitations of aquaNBS contributions on water quality and biodiversity, as microbial signatures appear more biased towards potentially pathogenic bacteria in these streams, compared to non-effluent impacted systems. Urban ponds appear more sensitive to hydroclimate perturbations, causing increased microbial turnover and lower microbial diversity than expected. Within the European dataset, diatom richness revealed an overarching influence of urbanization and urban water sources, as well as the presence of unique species in more naturalized sites. This demonstrates the need to adequately consider nutrient variability as well as aquatic organisms in planned restoration projects, particularly those implemented in densely urbanized ecosystems. Our findings highlight the use of novel integrated tracer approaches to explore the interface between ecology and hydrology, and provide insights into the ecohydrologic functioning of aquaNBS and their potential limitations. We illustrate the benefit of coupling ecological and hydrological perspectives through multiple environmental tracers, and hope to support future aquaNBS design and applications that consider the interactions between water and the ecosystem more effectively.

How to cite: Warter, M. M., Tetzlaff, D., Vierikko, K., Goldhammer, T., Monaghan, M. T., and Soulsby, C.: Tracing ecohydrology and biodiversity in aquatic, urban nature-based solutions integrating water stable isotopes, water chemistry and eDNA , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2230, 2025.

EGU25-3312 | Orals | HS10.7

Expanding towards contraction: the alternation of floods and droughts as a fundamental component in river ecology 

Susana Bernal, José L.J. Ledesma, Xavier Peñarroya, Carolina Jativa, Núria Catalán, Emilio O. Casamayor, Anna Lupon, Rafael Marcé, Eugènia Martí, Xavier Triadó-Margarit, and Gerard Rocher-Ros

Climate warming is causing more extreme weather conditions, with both larger and more intense precipitation events as well as extended periods of drought in many regions of the world. The consequence is an alteration of the hydrological regime of streams and rivers, with an increase in the probability of extreme hydrological conditions. Mediterranean-climate regions usually experience extreme hydrological events on a seasonal basis and thus, freshwater Mediterranean ecosystems can be used as natural laboratories for better understanding how climate warming will impact ecosystem structure and functioning elsewhere. Here, we revisited and contextualized historical and new datasets collected at Fuirosos, a well-studied Mediterranean intermittent stream naturally experiencing extreme hydrological events, to illustrate how the seasonal alternation of floods and droughts influence hydrology, microbial assemblages, water chemistry, and the potential for biogeochemical processing. Moreover, we revised some of the most influential conceptual and quantitative frameworks in river ecology to assess to what extent they incorporate the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. Based on this exercise, we identified knowledge gaps and challenges to guide future research on freshwater ecosystems under intensification of the hydrological cycle. Ultimately, we aimed to share the lessons learned from ecosystems naturally experiencing extreme hydrological events, which can help to better understand warming-induced impacts on hydrological transport and cycling of matter in fluvial ecosystems.

How to cite: Bernal, S., Ledesma, J. L. J., Peñarroya, X., Jativa, C., Catalán, N., Casamayor, E. O., Lupon, A., Marcé, R., Martí, E., Triadó-Margarit, X., and Rocher-Ros, G.: Expanding towards contraction: the alternation of floods and droughts as a fundamental component in river ecology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3312, 2025.

EGU25-3873 | Posters on site | HS10.7

Effects of bamboo expansion on organic matter and nutrient dynamics in mountain streams 

Tamao Kasahara, Ariane Gourlaouen, and Aki Tanaka

Rapid expansion of Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis) has been noted in East Asian countries, and replacement of riparian vegetation by dense bamboo has been observed in many areas. Changes in riparian vegetation have significant effects on stream ecosystems, but the effects of bamboo remain uncertain. In this study, leaf litter breakdown and leaching of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and nutrients in stream were compared between Moso bamboo and other riparian tree species to assess the effects of bamboo expansion on stream organic matter and nutrient dynamics.

Leaf litter of Moso bamboo and two evergreen species in riparian area, Camphor laurel (Cinnamomum camphora) and Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica), that provide leaves to the stream in the same season as bamboo were compared. Litter bags with 5 g of leaf litter were incubated on the streambed in four riffles in July and August. Litter bags were collected 1, 8, 15, 28 and 42 days after the start of incubation to measure breakdown rates and leaching of DOM and nutrients. Macroinvertebrates in the litter bags at day 8 were also examined.  

Breakdown rates of Moso bamboo was significantly lower than those of Camphor laurel and Japanese cedar. Despite the low macroinvertebrate breakdown rates, the number and species richness of macroinvertebrate present were highest in the bamboo litter bags. These results suggest that bamboo leaves were not palatable compared to Camphor and cedar litter, but they functioned as habitat for macroinvertebrate. Leaching of DOM was highest from Moso bamboo leaves at day 0, and it rapidly declined as breakdown progressed. Japanese cedar, on the other hand, released smaller amount of DOM, but maintained the similar rates despite the progress of breakdown. Leaching of bioavailable DOM (BDOM) was lowest from bamboo, 0.64 (± 0.84) mg/g of litter, and highest from Camphor leaves, 5.48 (± 0.99) mg/g, at day 0, and by day 8, leaching of BDOM became similar among species, 3.30 (± 0.67) mg/g, 3.67 (± 0.16) mg/g, 2.37 (± 0.86) mg/g respectively for Moso bamboo, Camphor laurel, and Japanese cedar. Thus, bamboo leaves leached larger amount of DOM, but BDOM was low, and the effects on in-stream nutrient processes may be smaller than other two species.

How to cite: Kasahara, T., Gourlaouen, A., and Tanaka, A.: Effects of bamboo expansion on organic matter and nutrient dynamics in mountain streams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3873, 2025.

EGU25-4822 | Orals | HS10.7

The role of connectivity (or lack of it) on  biogeochemical signal propagation 

Thanos Papanicolaou, Ken Wacha, and Ben Abban

High-intensity rainfall events have become more frequent and occur erratically over the past decade. These intense storms can overwhelm agricultural soils and significantly modify the dynamics of drainage networks. Structural (legacy) connectivity, which self-organizes within the drainage system, interacts with functional (contemporary) connectivity—the various fluxes in and out of the system. Together, they affect the imprint of the landscape surficial mosaic and exert non-linear filters to key hydrogeomorphic and biochemical processes thereby impacting  transport and transformation of water and other constituent fluxes in and out of a watershed. 

In our study, we present a nested network of water–sediment–nutrient measurements strategically positioned within USDA-ARS LTAR (Long-Term Agricultural Research) drainage networks. This approach captures discrete snapshots of event hillslope evolution phases in space and with time to quantify the high spatial and temporal variability of property heterogeneity through the drainage network and the feebacks that heterogeneity modification has on fluxes in and out a hillslope. We propose a systems-based approach to identify key mechanisms and parameters driving system dynamics, aiming to develop monitoring schemes that account for both management practices and climate effects in agricultural watersheds. Researchers posit that both management practices and climate play a pivotal role in shaping the response of agricultural watersheds. Specifically, alterations in transport times and the fluxes of water, sediment, and nutrients are influenced by these factors. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of landscape processes and serve as a foundation for developing improved management guidelines.

How to cite: Papanicolaou, T., Wacha, K., and Abban, B.: The role of connectivity (or lack of it) on  biogeochemical signal propagation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4822, 2025.

EGU25-6815 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Patterns and potential drivers of land-water productivity coupling across U.S. river systems 

Shengyue Chen, Georgios Blougouras, Elisa Calamita, Sung-Ching Lee, Jinliang Huang, and Shijie Jiang

Watershed ecosystems rely on energy and nutrient exchanges between terrestrial and aquatic systems, which influence carbon and nutrient cycles, biodiversity, and overall ecosystem dynamics. The synchronization of terrestrial and riverine productivity, referred to as coupling strength (CS), provides a useful metric for assessing ecosystem integration and responses to environmental change. Despite its importance, the spatial variability of CS and its environmental drivers remain poorly understood, particularly across regions with diverse natural conditions and human impacts. This study quantifies CS across over one hundred river sites and their upstream watersheds in the continental United States. Using explainable machine learning, we identified key environmental factors, including water temperature, river width, leaf area index, and watershed area, that exhibit distinct nonlinear relationships with CS. Clustering analyses revealed spatially diverse coupling regimes, influenced by a combination of ecohydrological processes and anthropogenic activities. These findings advance the understanding of how environmental conditions mediate synchronization between terrestrial and aquatic productivity. The results provide a foundation for future research into the mechanisms of land-water interactions and their responses to environmental stressors. By integrating these insights into broader ecological and hydrological frameworks, this work can support the development of predictive tools for watershed management under changing environmental conditions.

How to cite: Chen, S., Blougouras, G., Calamita, E., Lee, S.-C., Huang, J., and Jiang, S.: Patterns and potential drivers of land-water productivity coupling across U.S. river systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6815, 2025.

EGU25-8967 | ECS | Orals | HS10.7

Sources and transport pathways of plant DNA in lake sediments: Lessons from an annually resolved record 

Marina A. Morlock, Ida-Maria Blåhed, Johan Rydberg, Doreen Yu-Tuan Huang, Saúl Rodriguez Martinez, Jonatan Klaminder, and Christian Bigler

The analysis of environmental DNA (eDNA) from sediments has become an important method to study past ecosystem dynamics, offering new perspectives for paleoecological research. Yet, the temporal and spatial variability in DNA sources and transport pathways to the sediment remain underexplored. We studied how the plant DNA signal varies between annual lamina (or varves) in the sediment from Nylandssjön, a small boreal lake in northern Sweden, between 1991 and 2020. During this time period the vegetation community composition in the catchment was stable without any known drastic changes between years. Hence, observed differences in the eDNA signal between varves (years) will be related to differences in DNA transport and preservation.

We find that the overall vegetation community structure is similar between varves (years), emphasizing the robustness of eDNA for whole-ecosystem analyses. However, both the number of taxa and genera varies considerably between varves, suggesting that there is significant between-year difference in the source area, transport, and/or preservation of DNA in the sediment. This implies that records of individual taxa – particularly more rare taxa – need to be interpreted with caution. Interestingly, some individual taxa have strong between-varve (year) fluctuations in absolute reads, suggesting differences in the transport and deposition of plant fragments could play an important role in forming the DNA signal. Our results highlight that we need a better understanding of the variability in transport pathways and deposition of DNA from the lake catchment to the sediments in order to reliably interpret eDNA signals in sediment records.

How to cite: Morlock, M. A., Blåhed, I.-M., Rydberg, J., Huang, D. Y.-T., Rodriguez Martinez, S., Klaminder, J., and Bigler, C.: Sources and transport pathways of plant DNA in lake sediments: Lessons from an annually resolved record, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8967, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8967, 2025.

EGU25-9194 | Posters on site | HS10.7

Reanalysis of published eDNA for Hydrologic Process Understanding  

Rosetta Blackman, Ueli Ammann, and Natalie Ceperley

Environmental DNA (eDNA) consists of genetic fragments suspended in the water column. Recently, it has been heralded as an effective tool for biodiversity monitoring (Blackman et al., 2024), resulting in a considerable diversity of studies and data collection. Most of the data from these studies are published in open access repositories (e.g., ENA, eDNAexplorer, Genbank) but have minimal or no re-analysis, therefore offering a currently up-to-date resource. Recently, eDNA observations have been explored as a tool for understanding hydrological processes (Good et al., 2018; Mächler et al., 2021; URycki et al., 2024). Here, we explore published eDNA datasets that contain hydrologic data or are relevant for hydrology.

We have compiled published eDNA datasets that might also inform hydrologic process knowledge or be otherwise relevant for hydrology.  For the moment, this is a metanalysis of those datasets and their publications, but as this work continues, we are exploring genetic and hydrologic data mining to repurpose this data for something other than its original intended objectives.  In this presentation, we give an overview of our proposed workflow for hydrological reanalysis of published genetic data and define a baseline for large-scale reanalysis and future projects that want to satisfy both objectives (i.e. understand biology and hydrologic processes).  

References

Blackman, R., Couton, M., Keck, F., Kirschner, D., Carraro, L., Cereghetti, E., Perrelet, K., Bossart, R., Brantschen, J., Zhang, Y., & Altermatt, F. (2024). Environmental DNA: The next chapter. Molecular Ecology, e17355. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.17355

Good, S. P., URycki, D. R., & Crump, B. C. (2018). Predicting Hydrologic Function With Aquatic Gene Fragments. Water Resources Research, 54(3), 2424–2435. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017wr021974

Mächler, E., Salyani, A., Walser, J.-C., Larsen, A., Schaefli, B., Altermatt, F., & Ceperley, N. (2021). Environmental DNA simultaneously informs hydrological and biodiversity characterization of an Alpine catchment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 735–753. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-735-2021

URycki, D. R., Good, S. P., Crump, B. C., Ceperley, N. C., & Brooks, J. R. (2024). Microbial community storm dynamics signal sources of “old” stream water. PLOS ONE, 19(9), e0306896. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306896

How to cite: Blackman, R., Ammann, U., and Ceperley, N.: Reanalysis of published eDNA for Hydrologic Process Understanding , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9194, 2025.

EGU25-9606 | Orals | HS10.7

Decadal evolution of groundwater planktonic prokaryotes in a sandstone aquifer 

Archita Bhattacharyya, Tim Goodall, Daren Gooddy, Daniel S. Read, James Sorensen, and Ben Surridge

Groundwater ecosystems host diverse and largely unexplored communities of planktonic prokaryotes that play critical roles in global biogeochemical cycling and maintaining drinking water quality. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of prokaryotic communities in a sandstone aquifer at depths of 70-338m. By integrating spatial surveys across 48 pumping boreholes in England with temporal analyses by seasonal repetition and groundwater ‘piston flow age’ analysis, we investigated how variations in age, depth, and drift thickness influence nutrient availability and microbial communities. The prokaryotic community structure was assessed by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, groundwater recharge age using CFC-12 (dichlorodifluoromethane), borehole characteristics and surface connectivity from using borehole logs, with further analysis of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Seasonal analyses revealed minimal shifts in dominant taxa between recharge and recession periods, with no detectable introduction or extinction of surface-derived taxa. However, there was 7% change in DOC, TDN and 35% reduction in DO between recharge and recession periods. This lack of community shift may be attributed to the high filtration capacity of the sandstone aquifer preventing surface taxa intrusion during recharge. A high Shannon diversity index (5.4) indicated a stable and highly diverse groundwater community. The microbial community structure and nutrient availability varied significantly along vertical gradients of groundwater age, screened interval depth, and drift thickness, with distinct assemblages in shallow unconfined versus deeper confined sites. Nutrient cycling patterns by these communities were inferred from nutrient profiles. Unconfined sites with thinner drift (1–10 m), shallower screen depths (23-36m) and younger water (1972–2023) exhibited abundance of ultrasmall heterotrophic families, including Omnitrophaceae, Nanoarchaeia, and classes Crenarchaea and Parcubacteria. In these primarily aerobic environments, DOC limitation (0.7 mg/L) could prevent denitrification resulting in higher legacy TDN accumulation (9.5 mg/L) from anthropogenic additions of nitrogen-based fertiliser. The dominant ultrasmall heterotrophic prokaryotes may perform cryptic (or hidden) carbon and nitrogen cycling where rapid turnover of redox species drive biogeochemical cycling or may act as parasites. Conversely, confined sites with thicker drift (10–142 m), deeper borehole perforation depths (40-124m) and older groundwater recharge ages (1953–1967) were dominated by autotrophic families such as Gallionellaceae, Rhodocyclaceae, Hydrogenophilaceae and Comamonadaceae. These autotrophs may facilitate iron and sulphur cycling in the anaerobic parts of the confined aquifer. The intermediate depth and age ranges exhibited a mix of both autotrophs and heterotrophs indicating a transition phase. These findings highlight the role of aquifer architecture and groundwater residence time in shaping the spatiotemporally heterogeneous prokaryotic communities. The spatially unique communities influence the local nutrient cycling and thus the water chemistry, which should be considered when designing sustainable groundwater management strategies.

Keywords: Groundwater, Planktonic prokaryotes, Spatio-temporal variation, Nutrient cycling, Groundwater age. 

How to cite: Bhattacharyya, A., Goodall, T., Gooddy, D., Read, D. S., Sorensen, J., and Surridge, B.: Decadal evolution of groundwater planktonic prokaryotes in a sandstone aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9606, 2025.

EGU25-9625 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Unravelling alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon dynamics in an alpine stream network 

Francesco Presotto, Giulia Grandi, Rossano Piazza, and Enrico Bertuzzo

Alkalinity in river ecosystems plays a crucial role in regulating carbon cycle across basin, regional, and global scales. Streamflow alkalinity acts as a pH buffer and drives the relative abundance of the different chemical forms of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), such as CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions. Higher alkalinity supports greater carbon retention in non-gaseous forms, reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions, while lower alkalinity weakens the buffering capacity, increasing water acidity and facilitating carbon loss to the atmosphere. Rivers, as dynamic links between terrestrial and marine environments, transport significant amounts of organic and inorganic carbon, making alkalinity a key driver of CO2 exchange between rivers and the atmosphere.
Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in stream networks can originate from allochthonous sources, such as catchment soil respiration and rock weathering, or from autochthonous processes driven by stream metabolism, i.e. the net ecosystem production (NEP), the balance between gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. As recent literature highlights, understanding the complex interplay among DIC, oxygen, and stream metabolism requires spatio-temporal characterization of alkalinity, which influences the different forms of DIC, its exchange with the atmosphere, and its biological availability.
This study contributes to this field by investigating the alkalinity dynamics in the Valfredda stream network, a 5 km2 catchment in the Italian Alps characterized by pristine alpine conditions. Fed mostly by snowmelt, the Valfredda stream features cold, clear, oxygen-saturated waters with low nutrient concentrations. Its snowmelt-driven hydrology produces marked seasonal variations in flow rates and water temperatures, providing an ideal natural laboratory to study diverse conditions throughout the year.
Alkalinity was sampled at 12 locations within the river network approximately once a month. Additionally, daily sampling was conducted at the catchment outlet. Using a stream transport model based on a mass balance approach, we characterized the alkalinity concentration in the lateral discharge across different stream reaches. The combination of the model and the two datasets allowed investigating how alkalinity varied seasonally and spatially, revealing potential drivers such as land use, hydrology, or biogeochemical processes. At a selected stream reach, we combined alkalinity measurements with continuous monitoring of metabolic indicators: dissolved oxygen, pH, water and air temperature, and light intensity, using deployable sensors. By integrating data from discrete sampling and continuous monitoring, we quantified the DIC balance at the scale of a single stream reach. Future work aims to extend this approach to the entire network.
These insights lay the groundwork for understanding the role of alkalinity in shaping river DIC balance and influencing CO2 emissions. The comprehensive dataset will support the identification of seasonal trends and spatial patterns, offering a complete view of alkalinity dynamics within complex river network system.

How to cite: Presotto, F., Grandi, G., Piazza, R., and Bertuzzo, E.: Unravelling alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon dynamics in an alpine stream network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9625, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9625, 2025.

EGU25-10281 | Orals | HS10.7

A New Diagnostic Approach to Assess the Ecological Impact of Droughts on Rivers  

Chiara Arrighi, Marco Lompi, Marco De Simone, and Fabio Castelli

In Europe, water management at the river basin district scale requires to satisfy both human supply and ecological preservation to achieve the Water Framework Directive (WFD) objectives. Freshwater resources are essential for human needs and ecosystem balance, but factors like climate extremes, population growth, and pollutant pressures pose serious challenges. Environmental flow (e-flow) is defined as the water flow required to sustain aquatic ecosystems, but traditional methods to establish e-flow thresholds at large spatial scales lack comprehensive ecological relevance. This work discusses the effects of droughts on the ecological status of rivers, focusing on developing diagnostic tools to assess the impact of water scarcity. To address this, the study introduces the Eco-Hydrological Distance Index (EHDI), a metric that integrates hydrological balance, ecological indicators and anthropogenic pressures to evaluate how deviations from e-flow thresholds affect river ecosystems, especially during droughts. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess drought severity, the research analyses rainfall data from Tuscany (2001–2020) and compares SPI values with EHDI across different river basins in the Arno River system (Italy). The results reveal a strong correlation between SPI and EHDI, with droughts significantly impacting the ecological status of rivers.  The study identifies critical SPI thresholds, below which river basins risk reaching "bad" ecological status, defined by a substantial loss of biological communities. These thresholds vary across basins due to factors like hydrological conditions, water abstraction, and anthropogenic pressures. This research highlights the need for integrating hydrological and ecological metrics to improve water management strategies at the river basin district scales. By providing tools to predict the ecological impact of droughts, it aims to support sustainable management of water resources and protect ecosystem services essential for biodiversity and human wellbeing.

Acknowledgment: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Arrighi, C., Lompi, M., De Simone, M., and Castelli, F.: A New Diagnostic Approach to Assess the Ecological Impact of Droughts on Rivers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10281, 2025.

EGU25-10419 | ECS | Orals | HS10.7

Controls of space-time variance of water chemistry in river networks 

Linus S. Schauer, James W. Jawitz, Matthew J. Cohen, and Andreas Musolff

River water quality is essential for ecosystem function and human well-being, yet anthropogenic impacts, such as pollutant input from agricultural activities or waste water, threaten water resources. An effective design of water quality monitoring networks is crucial to understanding and mitigating these impacts. However, optimizing monitoring is challenging because of the spatial and temporal variability of water quality, i.e. solute concentrations, driven by landscape and hydroclimatic heterogeneity.

This study uses a stochastic modeling approach applied to artificial river networks to explore how landscape and hydroclimatic heterogeneity at different spatial scales shape the space-time variance of water chemistry. Building on a previously developed headwater-scale stochastic water quality model, we simulated daily discharge and solute concentration time series for equal area subcatchments within these networks. We systematically varied the spatial configuration of subcatchment solute source concentration across the network, the source zone distribution within subcatchments, and imposed different hydroclimatic regimes. Simulated discharge and solute loads were routed through the network, incorporating in-stream processing, to generate water quantity and quality time series for each network node. A global sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed to assess the influence of key parameters on the space-time variance of solute concentration.

The results of the sensitivity analysis revealed that the macro-scale landscape configuration of source concentrations controls the spatial variability of solute concentrations in rivers and spatial stability, i.e. the persistence of spatial patterns through time. The relative influence of structured and random landscape heterogeneity on spatial variability was scale dependent, with distinct patterns observed across different stream orders. In contrast, subcatchment-scale processes, such as the source zone distribution, and the hydroclimatic forcing regulate temporal variability of water quality and synchrony between subcatchments. We conclude that optimal water quality monitoring network design should thus quantify spatial and temporal variability across scales, leveraging concepts like spatial stability and synchrony to maximize information gained and explicitly accounting for multiscale landscape heterogeneity.

How to cite: Schauer, L. S., Jawitz, J. W., Cohen, M. J., and Musolff, A.: Controls of space-time variance of water chemistry in river networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10419, 2025.

EGU25-10937 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Ecological restoration guided by hydrological connectivity reduces nitrogen fluxes from river to coast 

Yao Wang, Nengwang Chen, and Xin Luo

Greening is the optimal way to mitigate climate change and water quality degradation caused by agricultural expansion and rapid urbanization. However, the ideal sites to plant trees or grass to achieve a win-win solution between the environment and the economy remain unknown. Here, we performed a 12-year comprehensive observation in the Jiulong River watershed (southeastern China) and a nationwide survey on groundwater in China (n = 90), combining them with statistical and AI models to explore the linkages between land use within hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) and nitrogen concentrations/fluxes from the perspective of hydrological connectivity. We found that HSAs occupy approximately 20% of the total land area and are hotspots for transferring nitrogen from the land surface to rivers and groundwater. Increasing the proportion of natural lands within HSAs improves river and groundwater quality and reduces the exports of riverine nitrogen to coastal zones. These new findings suggest that prioritizing ecological restoration in HSAs is conducive to achieving harmony between the environment (improving watershed water quality and reducing river nitrogen export flux) and the economy (reducing investment in area management).

How to cite: Wang, Y., Chen, N., and Luo, X.: Ecological restoration guided by hydrological connectivity reduces nitrogen fluxes from river to coast, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10937, 2025.

EGU25-11269 | Orals | HS10.7

Analysis of species interaction networks in a fish and amphibian floodplain metacommunity using eDNA metabarcoding. 

Andrea Funk, Tibor Erős, Lukas Landler, Paul Meulenbroek, Didier Pont, Sonia Recinos Brizuela, Olena Bilous, Alice Valentini, and Thomas Hein

Large floodplain rivers are among the most species-rich and complex systems, characterized by high spatiotemporal dynamics. The exchange between communities of different patches in space and in time depends on hydrological conditions that impact the distribution of species and their interactions. This complexity makes it particularly challenging to identify key features of communities, including species interactions, which are also influenced by dynamic dispersal patterns. We collected eDNA data for fish and amphibians across two floodplain systems along the Danube over three years, capturing a range of hydrological conditions from post-flood to extended dry periods. Using an approach based on Bayesian networks we analyze for species co-occurrence patterns accounting for spatial, temporal, and dynamic autocorrelation as well as environmental conditions. In the second step, we applied a graph-theoretic approach to depict and analyze the relationships between species and define discrete communities. Our results reveal that species differ in their migration intensity, as reflected in the varying significance of temporal and spatial autocorrelation within the system, i.e., having continuous impact in local communities or impact changes over time or hydrological conditions. Further, we identified different communities in the system, including one clearly delineated consisting of amphibians and a few stagnotopic fish species showing negative interaction with other fish communities, alongside more open fish communities, i.e., often showing positive interactions with other communities. Different species interactions such as predator-prey interactions within fish as well as between fish and amphibians, are well delineated in the network. Several invasive fish species are also strongly interacting, they show relatively high connectivity within the species network. Overall, our approach contributes to a more mechanistic understanding of species interactions in complex, dynamic systems.

This research acknowledged support from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project RIMECO (I 5006), the EU Projects H2020 MERLIN (grant agreement No 101036337), HEU Danube4all (grant agreement No 101093985) i-CONN’ H 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement number 859937. Furthermore, the Austrian Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs and the Christian Doppler Research Association supported the work via the Christian Doppler Laboratory for Meta Ecosystem Dynamics in Riverine Landscapes (CD Laboratory MERI).

How to cite: Funk, A., Erős, T., Landler, L., Meulenbroek, P., Pont, D., Recinos Brizuela, S., Bilous, O., Valentini, A., and Hein, T.: Analysis of species interaction networks in a fish and amphibian floodplain metacommunity using eDNA metabarcoding., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11269, 2025.

EGU25-11775 | Posters on site | HS10.7

Erosion processes and connectivity shape biological communities recorded by environmental DNA in sedimentary archive: implication for paleo-environmental reconstruction 

Anthony Foucher, Olivier Evrard, Jonathan Maresceaux, Nicolas Debortoli, Valentin Ambroise, Olivier Cerdan, Valentin Landemaine, and Jean-François Desprats

Recent studies highlight the critical role of changes in connectivity, erosion processes and sediment sources in shaping biological communities in palaeo-environmental reconstructions (e.g., Giguet-Covex et al., 2023; Morlock et al., 2023). Such processes can lead to misinterpretations attributing shifts in biodiversity around lakes to environmental changes, when in fact they may be due to the introduction of previously unconnected sediment sources driven by human activities (e.g. land management) or extreme climate events.

To assess the impact of changes in connectivity and accelerated erosion on biological communities, we analysed sediment archives from the Dzoumogné reservoir (Mayotte Island, France). This reservoir drains a small catchment (1038 ha) that underwent significant land-use changes (e.g. deforestation, agricultural intensification) during a well-documented period (2011-2021). We reconstructed land-use changes, erosion rates and sediment sources, as well as biological communities using sediment DNA (sedDNA) based on seven genetic markers targeting plants (trnL, rbcL), fungi (ITS), metazoa (16S, 18S) and vertebrates (12S).

Our results show a 450% increase in operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and shifts in OTUs detected in 23 taxonomic groups following the first deforestation phase (2012-2013) and subsequent agricultural intensification resulting in landscape fragmentation. During this period, sedDNA identified an increase in forest-derived species (e.g. Streptophyta and terrestrial fungi) and agricultural species (e.g. banana, cassava, cattle). These changes coincide with accelerated sediment delivery and erosion rates (+310% between 2011 and 2015). Between 2015 and 2021, declining water levels (driven by climate and human activities) combined with high sediment and nutrient inputs continued to drive major shifts in aquatic communities. These included increases in OTUs belonging to the taxonomic groups Chlorophyta and Ciliophora - key indicators of eutrophication and water quality degradation. The high primary production associated with algae and microorganisms likely explains the observed increase in invertebrate and fish communities higher up the trophic chain within just two years of changes in sediment connectivity and sources.

This study highlights how rapid shifts in biodiversity in both terrestrial and aquatic systems are driven by increased erosion and connectivity of previously isolated land use areas (e.g. forests, croplands). Understanding these connectivity dynamics is crucial to avoid misinterpretation of biodiversity change in lake sediment records.

 

References:

Giguet-Covex, C., Jelavić, S., Foucher, A., Morlock, M. A., Wood, S. A., Augustijns, F., Domaizon, I., Gielly, L., & Capo, E. (2023). The Sources and Fates of Lake Sedimentary DNA (pp. 9–52).

Morlock, M. A., Rodriguez‐Martinez, S., Huang, D. Y., & Klaminder, J. (2023). Erosion regime controls sediment environmental‐based community reconstruction. Environmental DNA, 5(6), 1393–1404.

 

How to cite: Foucher, A., Evrard, O., Maresceaux, J., Debortoli, N., Ambroise, V., Cerdan, O., Landemaine, V., and Desprats, J.-F.: Erosion processes and connectivity shape biological communities recorded by environmental DNA in sedimentary archive: implication for paleo-environmental reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11775, 2025.

EGU25-12532 | Posters on site | HS10.7

Land use specific hydrological tracers characterize fate of cropland-influenced water in the Mississippi Basin, USA 

Greg McCarty, Cathleen Hapeman, Alexia Bertholon, Ruby Dessiatoun, Clifford Rice, Zacharias Smith, and W. Dean Hively

Study of land use specific tracers can provide important insight to fate of legacy nitrogen from crop production in the Mississippi basin. Metolachlor, a commonly used preemergent herbicide used on cropland in maize/soyabean production, is metabolized in soil to metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid, MESA and metolachlor oxanilic acid, MOXA from a common pathway intermediate. These metabolites are highly soluble in soil waters and have been shown to serve as conserved transport analogues of cropland nitrate stream and small watersheds. But testing the degree to which these hydrological tracers are conserved at various scales of observation becomes critical for this use at larger scales. This study analyzed MESA and MOXA data collected from 28 subbasins in the Mississippi basin over a 10-year period. We found that strong correlations between MESA and MOXA at various scale observations indicating that both tracers were conserved and exhibited very similar transport properties at larger scales of observation. This study demonstrated the utility of a multi-tracer approach for understanding watershed lag-times from small streams to larger river basins.

How to cite: McCarty, G., Hapeman, C., Bertholon, A., Dessiatoun, R., Rice, C., Smith, Z., and Hively, W. D.: Land use specific hydrological tracers characterize fate of cropland-influenced water in the Mississippi Basin, USA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12532, 2025.

EGU25-16443 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Inferring the role of fluvial metabolism in CO2 emissions from O2-CO2 paired measurements across contrasting hydrological conditions 

Carolina Jativa, Susana Bernal, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Xavier Peñarroya, José L. J. Ledesma, and Anna Lupon

Headwater streams are critical control points for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere, traditionally assumed to originate primarily from terrestrial sources. However, in-stream metabolic activity can become a substantial CO2 source, particularly in water-scarce regions characterized by net heterotrophic streams and low groundwater inputs. To explore this idea, we analyzed patterns of CO2 and oxygen (O2) concentrations at high-temporal resolution alongside stream aerobic metabolic rates to identify CO2 sources under contrasting hydrological conditions in an intermittent, oligotrophic Mediterranean stream. During high-discharge periods, there was no correlation between O2 and CO2 concentrations, and O2-CO2 patterns indicated CO2 oversaturation. These results indicate that despite ecosystem respiration (ER) predominated over gross primary production (GPP) during high-discharge periods, lateral groundwater inputs were likely the dominant source of CO2 emissions within the stream. Under low-flow conditions, GPP was still low in this net heterotrophic stream. Yet. a negative relationship between O2 and CO2 concentrations emerged, suggesting a major role of in-stream metabolic activity in driving O2-CO2 dynamics. These findings reinforce the concept of headwater streams as key CO2 emitters, while emphasizing the influence of hydrological conditions on their dual role: acting as chimneys for terrestrially-derived CO2 during high-flow periods and as active carbon biogeochemical reactors during low-flow periods.

How to cite: Jativa, C., Bernal, S., Rocher-Ros, G., Peñarroya, X., Ledesma, J. L. J., and Lupon, A.: Inferring the role of fluvial metabolism in CO2 emissions from O2-CO2 paired measurements across contrasting hydrological conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16443, 2025.

EGU25-17219 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Patterns of prokaryotic diversity in freshwaters across the circumpolar region 

Nicolas Valiente Parra, Alexander Eiler, Stefan Bertilsson, Fernando Chaguaceda, Kirsten S. Christoffersen, Joseph Culp, Isabelle Lavoie, Jordan Musetta-Lambert, Rebecca Shaftel, and Dag O. Hessen

Northern freshwater ecosystems face a wide range of environmental changes, including climate change, eutrophication, and browning. In Arctic regions, climate warming is occurring nearly four times faster than the global average, leading to higher water temperatures, shorter ice-cover periods, and extended growing seasons for aquatic biota. These changes are expected to have both direct and indirect impacts on these ecosystems, including the microbial communities that underpin their biodiversity and functioning. Building on prior research by the authors, we tested the hypothesis that microbial communities, particularly prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea), exhibit similarities across circumpolar freshwater systems. To investigate this, we surveyed 46 lakes and 30 streams between 2019 and 2022 in Arctic (>70º N) and sub-Arctic (55–70º N) regions spanning Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Norway (including Svalbard), and Sweden. For each waterbody, we collected environmental DNA (eDNA) for 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding and water samples to analyze physical and chemical parameters (temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, and dissolved O2), major ions, and nutrients (organic C, P, and N).

Bacteria predominantly represented the main prokaryotic group in this study, with archaeal contributions limited to a few lakes in Svalbard and the Canadian Northwest Territories. Our results revealed that latitude (i.e., Arctic vs. sub-Arctic locations) strongly determined community composition (p = 0.001; pseudo-F = 2.634), whereas the type of waterbody (i.e., lakes vs. streams) had a weaker influence on beta diversity (p = 0.012; pseudo-F = 1.813). Latitude, along with water temperature and dissolved O2, were the main explanatory variables shaping prokaryotic community composition in our study. The core microbiome differed significantly in abundance between Arctic and sub-Arctic locations (p = 0.005). Arctic freshwaters showed the highest alpha diversity (Shannon and Chao1 indices) and were dominated by the genera Rhodoferax, Arcicella, and Polaromonas, all of which positively correlated with increasing dissolved O2 concentrations. In contrast, sub-Arctic freshwaters were primarily dominated by Limnohabitans, a genus widely distributed in inland freshwater habitats. Regarding waterbody types, lakes were predominantly characterized by Flavobacterium, which positively correlated with increasing nutrient concentrations, and exhibited higher alpha diversity compared to streams. Streams, in turn, were largely dominated by Rhodococcus species, which showed significant positive correlations with water temperature. This study enhances our understanding of prokaryotic diversity across the circumpolar region and aims to further provide valuable insights into the assembly mechanisms of freshwater microbial communities.

How to cite: Valiente Parra, N., Eiler, A., Bertilsson, S., Chaguaceda, F., Christoffersen, K. S., Culp, J., Lavoie, I., Musetta-Lambert, J., Shaftel, R., and Hessen, D. O.: Patterns of prokaryotic diversity in freshwaters across the circumpolar region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17219, 2025.

EGU25-17491 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Long-term variability in the metabolism of an aquatic ecosystem: results from 25 years of continuous dissolved oxygen monitoring in a large urban river. 

Patricia Njapou Mawa, Jean-Marie Mouchel, Nicolas Escoffier, and Jeremy Mougin

The availability of Dissolved oxygen (DO) sensors and open-source modelling tools has greatly expanded the breadth of knowledge regarding the metabolism of aquatic systems. River metabolism is one of the most integrative indicator of ecological health, it can be applied across diverse water systems, through continuous measurement systems, and is highly sensitive to environmental stressors as it reflects shifts in anthropogenic disturbance or management actions. While former studies showed that the estimation of aquatic ecosystem metabolism can be used as a relevant tool for urban water management, long-term metabolism investigations remain currently scarce, especially in large rivers.

Relying on the MeSeine Observatory, a sensor network of 8 sites measuring  continuously DO and water temperature in the Seine River from upstream to downstream of Paris region, we examined 25 years of spatial and temporal variability of the river metabolism and its underlying drivers. Daily metabolic rates, including gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), which both contribute to the net ecosystem production (NEP), were estimated using the single-station open-channel method, integrating hourly DO, temperature, and river discharge data.

Preliminary results reveal distinct seasonal and inter-annual patterns in GPP, ER and NEP rates. ER and GPP peaked in late spring and in summer, driven by high light availability, warm temperatures and low discharge, while the lowest rates occurred in winter across all sites. Inter-annual variations were primarily influenced by hydroclimatic conditions and sewage inputs. Annual mean rates of GPP, ER and NEP across all sites ranged from ~0.29 to ~2.3, ~-5.65 to ~-0.53, and ~-4.16 to ~0.51 gO₂.m⁻³.d⁻¹, respectively. ER consistently exceeded GPP, indicating a predominantly heterotrophic status downstream of Paris. Notably, the upstream site of the observatory (the only one before Paris) exhibited several years with positive annual NEP values. Along the river, net heterotrophy increased downstream, likely due to urban organic matter inputs. While GPP and ER displayed similar temporal patterns, NEP followed a distinct trajectory, aligning more closely with water quality, organic matter and nutrient concentrations. Moreover, in recent years, NEP tends to increase, reflecting a decrease of the heterotrophy and nutrient concentrations in the river.

The analysis demonstrates that the Seine River's metabolism has exhibited distinct seasonal and upstream-to-downstream trends over the past 25 years, driven by urban impacts, seasonal dynamics, and hydroclimatic conditions. Future work will focus on refining these observations to uncover long-term trends and establish clear relationships between metabolic rates and key environmental stressors across shorter timescales, with special focus on the structural components, hydrological information and sewage effluents. To assess ecological status and develop effective management tools, it is essential to understand the interactions between river components and the cause-effect mechanisms underlying aquatic ecosystem alterations.

How to cite: Njapou Mawa, P., Mouchel, J.-M., Escoffier, N., and Mougin, J.: Long-term variability in the metabolism of an aquatic ecosystem: results from 25 years of continuous dissolved oxygen monitoring in a large urban river., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17491, 2025.

EGU25-17639 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Hidden Threats of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon to River Ecosystem Metabolism 

Hongkai Qi and Yi Liu

The river is one of the most important freshwater ecosystems serving as a hub for water, gas, and energy exchange among land, ocean, and atmosphere. River ecosystem metabolism vibrates with external stresses such as solar radiation, flow stability, and temperature. We discovered that the internal factor dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) plays a hidden role in amplifying riverine metabolic sensitivity, which, however, is rarely concerned. In this study, machine learning is used to reproduce global riverine DIC datasets, and then the global rivers are divided into high-DIC and low-DIC rivers. Apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) is used as an indicator of ecosystem metabolism intensity. High-DIC rivers exhibit intensified ecosystem variability, which is more obvious in colder climate zones. Facilitated gross primary production (GPP) by DIC boosts ecosystem respiration, which increases the risk of hypoxia and biological stress in high-DIC rivers. A modified Michaelis-Menten equation-based model is developed and well simulates the historical variation of global mean annual AOU. The model was further applied to project DIC’s role in long-term river ecosystem variation under different future climate scenarios. The model results demonstrate that high-DIC rivers have a higher risk of oxygen depletion in all scenarios with different applications of fertilizer situations compared with low-DIC rivers.

How to cite: Qi, H. and Liu, Y.: Hidden Threats of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon to River Ecosystem Metabolism, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17639, 2025.

The proliferation of Azolla filiculoides, a fast-growing invasive aquatic fern, threatens river ecosystems worldwide by altering water quality and outcompeting native species. This study presents a novel approach for the global detection of A. filiculoides using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and Random Forest classification within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform.

We utilized the high-resolution spectral data from Sentinel-2 to capture the unique reflectance characteristics of A. filiculoides. A Random Forest classifier, trained with ground-truth data from multiple riverine environments, was applied to distinguish A. filiculoides from other aquatic vegetation and surface water features. The robustness of the model was tested across time to ensure broad applicability. The method was tested and validated on the Tagus River (Spain) with manually labeled speies observations over several years.

The primary objective is to develop a scalable and user-friendly GEE application that enables near real-time monitoring and detection of A. filiculoides in river systems globally. This app is designed to support environmental managers and policymakers by providing accessible tools for early detection and effective management of this invasive species as well as to provide large scale species distribution data to leverage biogeogeographic studies of A. filiculoides.

Preliminary results demonstrate high classification accuracy (R² = 0.94) and the potential for the GEE app to facilitate large-scale monitoring. By integrating machine learning with cloud computing, our approach offers a cost-effective and efficient solution for the global challenge of invasive aquatic plant detection.

How to cite: Plakias, A. and Draga, M.: Detection of Azolla fillaculoides in River Systems using Sentinel 2 Imagery and Random Forest Classification in the Google Earth Engine , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19517, 2025.

EGU25-20204 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.7

Temporal variability of the realized eutrophication in rivers across Germany 

Alexander Hubig, Ulrike Scharfenberger, and Andreas Musolff

Eutrophication, usually considered an overproduction of biomass in water bodies due to an enrichment of nutrients such as phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), is a common thread to riverine ecosystems. In Europe, chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations, an indicator for algae biomass, have been successfully reduced from the 1980s by limiting phosphorus input into rivers. However, elevated Chl-a levels in European rivers are still found until today. As recent algae blooms were rather linked with drought periods than with particularly high phosphorus concentrations, the question is raised whether other parameters than phosphorus concentrations might be more crucial for eutrophication management in the future.

To understand the conditions under which rivers are particularly prone to an efficient conversion of phosphorus into algae biomass, we analyzed a Germany-wide dataset of Chl-a and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations with 31661 measurement pairs at 330 stations between 2000 to 2019. To quantify this conversion efficiency, we used the measure of the degree of realized eutrophication, αrealized, which is the ratio between the realized (i.e. the Chl-a measurement) and the potential eutrophication (i.e. a theoretical upper Chl-a concentration at a given TP level if all TP is converted to biomass). In a preceding study, we found that station-wise medians of αrealized are mainly controlled by water residence time with high median αrealized being either related to large rivers with a long distance to source or small rivers with close upstream lakes. As management not only asks where but also when Chl-a concentrations are at critical levels, we here analyze the temporal variability of αrealized at different stations. To that end, we calculate the coefficients of variability of αrealized, TP, and Chl-a, and statistically relate these characteristics to other instream parameters and catchment attributes at each station.

We find both stations with low αrealized variability and a positive TP - Chl-a correlation and stations with high αrealized variability and no or even a negative TP and Chl-a correlation. The former case suggests stable controls of αrealized and good predictability of Chl-a based on TP concentrations at the respective stations. The latter case implies either variable water residence times or additional controls by parameters with strong seasonality, such as light availability, water temperature, or ecological community shifts.

In this contribution, we will present whether high temporal variability of αrealized is predictable from instream parameters or catchment attributes and discuss the underlying processes. We will further conclude on the implications of the results for river management, particularly in terms of algae control and in light of climate change.

How to cite: Hubig, A., Scharfenberger, U., and Musolff, A.: Temporal variability of the realized eutrophication in rivers across Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20204, 2025.

EGU25-21797 | Orals | HS10.7

From Fragments to Flow: Decoding eDNA States to Illuminate Hydrologic Processes 

Anish Kirtane, Zora Doppman, Enrico van der Loo, and Kristy Deiner

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis for rapid non-invasive species detection across the tree of life. Once the eDNA is released into the environment it can move through a landscape, aggregating as waterways converge. Thus, hydrological knowledge of a landscape benefits the interpretation of eDNA data. Simultaneously, eDNA may be utilized as a natural hydrologic tracer. To fully utilize eDNA as a tracer molecule, the ecology of eDNA i.e. its production, degradation, and transport have to be well understood. However, eDNA itself is a complex mixture comprising of different states, namely membrane-bound, dissolved, and adsorbed states with varying persistence times and transport potentials.

In this presentation, I will provide an overview of eDNA states, how they are formed and what we know about them. Then I will explore methods for sorting these eDNA states from a single sample. Lastly, I will show data from large study spanning eight lake watersheds comprising samples collected from 221 sites collected from the headwaters to lakes of 58 streams in eight Swiss watersheds. All the samples were state sorted and analyzed with board range metabarcoding assays for identifying metazoan diversity. The results show that while most biodiversity information is enveloped in the membrane-bound state, each eDNA state has a district diversity signature. Our results show that the metazoan diversity signals remain closely linked for samples within a given stream, they diverge significantly once the stream enters a lake, highlighting the use of natural eDNA input to track water movement. 

How to cite: Kirtane, A., Doppman, Z., van der Loo, E., and Deiner, K.: From Fragments to Flow: Decoding eDNA States to Illuminate Hydrologic Processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21797, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21797, 2025.

EGU25-412 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Integrating ecohydrological, isotopic, and numerical approaches to assess water use in montane Scots pine under varying wetness conditions  

Loujain Alharfouch, Pilar Llorens, Juan J. Hidalgo, Joaquin Jiménez-Martínez, Jesús Ariel Castro-López, Francesc Gallart, and Jérôme Latron

Mediterranean mountain regions are facing significant challenges due to climate change, including declining annual rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and increasingly frequent summer storms. These challenges pose serious threats to ecosystem resilience and the sustainable management of water resources and tackling them requires effective ecohydrological strategies. However, understanding water flow through the critical zone remains challenging due to the intricate water partitioning processes shaped by soil and vegetation heterogeneities. In an attempt to somewhat diminish this complexity, this study aims to investigate the water use dynamics of montane Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) under varying wetness conditions by integrating ecohydrological data, stable water isotope (²H and ¹⁸O), and numerical modeling with Hydrus 1D.

We conducted a comprehensive plot-scale field investigation in the Vallcebre research catchments (NE Spain), monitoring two sets of three Scots pine trees since May 2022. Data collection included throughfall, sap flow, stem diameter variations, and soil water potential and content down to 70 cm depth, all at 5-minute intervals. Weekly sampling of different water pools (throughfall, bulk and mobile soil water down to 100 cm, groundwater, and xylem water) provided isotope data across the growing season of 2022. The analysis of these datasets revealed dynamic tree water uptake behavior, with shifts in source water contributions across variable wetness conditions. We observed that tree water uptake predominantly contained winter precipitation, even after a large summer storm delivering more than 60 mm of rainfall in a single day after a 20-day dry spell. However, later in the growing season, the isotopic composition shifted to reflect a roughly equal contribution from both summer and winter precipitation.

We used the Hydrus 1D model to test three distinct root distribution estimation methods and utilizing our field ecohydrological, and isotopic data as inputs. The simulations revealed that the choice of root distribution significantly influenced model performance. The model captured the patterns of soil moisture and atmospheric demand, particularly emphasizing how shifts in these factors influence tree water use efficiency and water stress responses. These findings demonstrate the importance of accurately representing root distribution in ecohydrological models to improve our understanding of tree water uptake processes. Our integrated approach provides a reliable framework for exploring the complex water dynamics in montane Scots pine ecosystems, offering insights into tree resilience under future climate scenarios.

Keywords: Ecohydrology; Soil-plant-water interactions; Stable isotopes; Modelling; Root distribution, Scots pine

How to cite: Alharfouch, L., Llorens, P., Hidalgo, J. J., Jiménez-Martínez, J., Castro-López, J. A., Gallart, F., and Latron, J.: Integrating ecohydrological, isotopic, and numerical approaches to assess water use in montane Scots pine under varying wetness conditions , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-412, 2025.

EGU25-944 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Investigating stable isotope signatures variability across tree compartments 

Jesus Ariel Castro Lopez, Jérôme Latron, Pilar Llorens, Loujain Alharfouch, Adrià Barbeta, Teresa Gimeno, and Elisabet Martínez-Sancho

Water stable isotopes are valuable proxies for tracing water fluxes within the critical zone, the Earth’s layer extending from vegetation through to deep aquifers. This technique has helped to develop conceptual models of water distribution across scales, making it essential to understand how trees regulate water stored within their internal compartments. To investigate this, we sampled a representative Pinus sylvestris tree within an ecohydrologically monitored forest plot in the Vallcebre research catchments (NE Spain). The primary aim of this sampling was to assess potential variability in the isotopic signatures across different parts of the tree to enhance understanding of soil-root-tree water uptake processes. Samples were collected from various soil depths (0–100 cm), woody tissues of twigs and branches (at 3 canopy heights), the stem (cores at 3 different heights), and roots in all four cardinal directions during two sampling days (July and September 2023). Water from soil and wood samples was extracted using: cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) and cavitron (centrifugation). Stable isotope ratios were measured for all samples using infrared laser spectrometry (Picarro). Additional data included long-term meteorological records, throughfall volumes and isotopic signatures, soil moisture content and potential, sap flow and tree water deficit rates (from adjacent trees). Results showed consistent patterns across sampling dates: twigs and branches displayed isotopic values close to those of soil and throughfall, whereas roots and stem tissues exhibited more depleted values, clearly distinct from soil, twig, and branch signatures. To determine whether these isotopic observed differences arise from methodological issues (differences between cavitron and cryogenic extractions and/or the part of the wood sampled) or reveal intrinsic processes within the tree, in a third sampling campaign (July 2024) we sampled soil, roots, stem, branches and twigs. From roots and branches we took samples for CVD and Cavitron extraction and from the stem we took heartwood and sapwood samples. In addition, selected samples from the third campaign will be analyzed by both Picarro and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). This additional information promise new insights into the internal water dynamics of trees, clarifying if observed isotopic patterns reflect true physiological processes or methodological artifacts. This is critical for advancing our understanding of tree water dynamics and their role in critical zone water fluxes.

How to cite: Castro Lopez, J. A., Latron, J., Llorens, P., Alharfouch, L., Barbeta, A., Gimeno, T., and Martínez-Sancho, E.: Investigating stable isotope signatures variability across tree compartments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-944, 2025.

EGU25-1690 | Orals | HS10.10

Precipitation event characteristics influence its partitioning into evapotranspiration and streamflow regardless of the season 

Hatice Türk, Paolo Benettin, Michael Stockinger, and Christine Stumpp

The partitioning of precipitation into streamflow (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET ) is a fundamental aspect of the terrestrial
water cycle. Gaining insights into the mechanisms governing precipitation partitioning is critical for nutrient transport in
surface and subsurface water fluxes, ensuring plant water supply and maintaining atmospheric water dynamics. While previous
studies have highlighted the role of seasonal variability in precipitation partitioning, the influence of event characteristics
on precipitation partitioning has received less attention. In this study, we used hydrometeorological and tracer data from a
forested headwater catchment (Wüstebach, DE, 38.5 ha ) and a tracer-aided model based on StorAge Selection (SAS) functions
to quantify precipitation partitioning across different event types (mild, moderate and intense) and seasons after a period
of one year. Similar to previous studies, we showed seasonal precipitation input variability affects its partitioning.
Roughly about 82 % of spring season precipitation is released back into the atmosphere after one year, while this rate decreased
to 41 % for autumn season precipitation. Different season’s precipitation showed variation in partitioning to streamflow as
well. Approximately 11 % of autumn season precipitation ended in streamflow after one year, while this rate decreased to
3 % for spring season precipitation. However, within the same season, event characteristics showed stronger variation in
the partitioning of precipitation to ET and Q. Independent of in which season the precipitation fell, from mild to intense
events, ET partitioning decreased, and Q partitioning increased. Particularly for autumn precipitation, event types showed the
greatest variation in partitioning to ET and Q. ET partitioning for autumn precipitation declined roughly by 30%, Q partitioning
increased by 2%, and the fraction of precipitation remaining in the storage increased by 30% from mild to intense events. For
winter, ET decreased by 20 %, and Q and storage both increased by 6% and 15%, respectively. These patterns were consistent
across all seasons, indicating that precipitation event characteristics exerted a strong influence on the long-term partitioning
of precipitation. Thus, while seasonal variability remains important for precipitation partitioning, our results highlight which
type of precipitation returns to the atmosphere, contributes to discharge, or persists within catchment storage. These findings
emphasize the need to consider event-level precipitation dynamics under changing climatic conditions, given their potential
to alter water availability, contaminant transport, and flood mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Türk, H., Benettin, P., Stockinger, M., and Stumpp, C.: Precipitation event characteristics influence its partitioning into evapotranspiration and streamflow regardless of the season, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1690, 2025.

EGU25-2250 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Decoding lake water dynamics to optimize watershed agriculture through isotopic analyses of memory effects and hydrological connectivity 

Junen Wu, Bin Yang, Feng Cheng, Fan Zhao, Sha Ma, Xia Yuan, Huanhuan Zeng, Cheng Tang, Kun Yang, and Lei Zhao

Navigating the complex dynamics of lake water systems is critical in the context of intensifying global environmental changes. This study employs a novel stable isotope analysis to investigate the hydrological connections and water source contributions in Dianchi Lake, China. The research reveals a significant “memory effect”, where the lake’s current water volume is primarily influenced by its historical water conditions. The study also quantifies the relative contributions of various water sources, including precipitation, surface water, soil water in different agricultural land use types, and groundwater, to the lake’s water balance. The results identify agricultural land use practices are found to impact the lake’s hydrology, with greenhouse soils contributing less water than open field soils. And water outflow, rather than evaporation, as the primary factor reducing nearshore lake volume, highlighting the influence of human activities such as irrigation withdrawals and groundwater exploitation. The research also explores the interplay between meteorological factors and water source contributions, revealing the impact of seasonal variations and weather events on the lake’s water dynamics. By integrating stable isotope data with meteorological records and applying advanced modeling techniques, the study presents a quantitative framework for predicting future hydrological changes in the lake catchment. This innovative approach advances our understanding of complex lake water systems and provides valuable insights for effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and climate change adaptation strategies. 

How to cite: Wu, J., Yang, B., Cheng, F., Zhao, F., Ma, S., Yuan, X., Zeng, H., Tang, C., Yang, K., and Zhao, L.: Decoding lake water dynamics to optimize watershed agriculture through isotopic analyses of memory effects and hydrological connectivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2250, 2025.

The climate-change-induced increased frequency of droughts and shifts in rainfall patterns will most likely impact the interaction of trees with components of the hydrological cycle, e.g., rainfall, soil water, or groundwater. To study this, an increasing number of scientists use in-situ measurement systems capable of high-resolution measurement of the stable water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) of xylem and soil water. These systems often use gas-permeable probes to sample water vapor in isotopic equilibrium with the liquid xylem or soil water, which are connected to transport tubing of several meters length that guide the vapor sample to the gas-inlet of a field-deployed isotope analyzer. Potential issues of these systems include (a) the accidental transport of liquid water to the isotope analyzer (e.g., by damage to the tubing, or inadequate sealing of connections), and (b) the maximum transport tubing length to obtain a reliable measurement. Here, we tested two different syringe filters (0.45 µm Nylon, and 0.2 µm PTFE) in terms of preventing liquid water from passing through, and from allowing water vapor to pass through without fractionation of isotope ratios. By switching between two known water sources, we further analyzed the effect of a possible filter cake made up of water vapor of the previous measurement trapped in the filter material on subsequent isotope measurements (memory effect). Lastly, using a 4 mm diameter tube we tested lengths from 1.3 m to 15.3 m in 1-m-increments to assess maximum tubing lengths for a reliable analysis. Results showed that only 0.2 µm filters were able to prevent liquid water from breaking through, and that isotope values were slightly enriched (δ18O: +0.47‰, δ2H: +1.3‰). However, this enrichment was not statistically significant due to the small sample size of only three repeated measurements with and without the filter installed. No influence of a possible filter cake was found as two waters of known isotope ratios could be repeatedly measured when switching back-and-forth between water sources (standard deviations were on average 0.15‰ for δ18O and 0.6‰ for δ2H). Tests of tubing length showed a maximum length of 6.3 m for the isotope ratios to reach the target value when measuring for 20 minutes. Between 15.3 m to 12.3 m, no discernible change in isotope ratios was detected, and from 12.3 m to 7.3 m the expected isotope ratio was only detected after the 20-minute measurement window. Using the vapor volume of our 4 mm diameter and 6.3 m long tube of approximately 80 cm³, we calculated that the often-used tubes of 1/8-inch inner diameter (~1.58 mm) could theoretically be up to 40 m long. We thus recommend using a maximum transport tubing length that corresponds to approximately 80 cm³ of gas that needs to be transported. If liquid water intrusion might pose a danger to field-deployed measurement equipment, 0.2 µm PTFE syringe filters can be used to stop the liquid water. However, the issue of potential fractionation of these filters is not yet resolved.

How to cite: Stockinger, M. and Stumpp, C.: In-situ measurement of the stable isotopes of soil and xylem water using liquid-vapor equilibration: protection against water intrusion and maximum tubing lengths for automatic systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3627, 2025.

EGU25-3707 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Evidence of xylem hydraulic sectoring in apple trees from a deuterium tracing experiment in a split-root system 

Nicola Giuliani, Anna-Lena Haug, Stefano Brighenti, Agnese Aguzzoni, Damiano Zanotelli, Daniele Penna, and Massimo Tagliavini

Xylem is the plant tissue devoted to water transport. Its structure and anatomy vary among tree species, ranging from integrated (i.e., well-connected) to sectored networks. While xylem hydraulic sectoring has some advantages (e.g., reduced spread of pathogens and embolism), it also limits the exchange of water and nutrients between plant organs in different locations in the tree. In agricultural settings, where water and fertilizer inputs are often localized, preferential flow pathways in xylem could lead to non-homogeneous distribution of these resources within the trees. We therefore carried out an experiment to determine the degree of sectoriality in apple tree xylem, hypothesizing that differences in water availability at root level would influence this behavior.

To test our hypothesis, we potted young apple trees in a split-root system with four independent compartments. Soil compartments in different sets of trees were irrigated with water having different isotopic composition (enriched, δ2H ≈ 1650‰, or tap, δ2H ≈ -80‰) or left dry, obtaining five different treatments (100, 50_W, 25_W, 50_D, and 25_D, where the number represents the percentage of sectors receiving labelled water, and W and D indicate whether the remaining sectors were irrigated with tap water or left dry, respectively). Four days after the labelled irrigation, we destructively sampled shoots, trunk, rootstock, roots, and soil in each pot, every time collecting four samples corresponding to the respective sectors of the split-root system. Water was subsequently extracted from the samples by cryogenic vacuum distillation and its isotopic composition determined with IRMS. A two-end-member mixing model was applied to determine the contribution of labelled soil water in each tree organ.

In the trees receiving water in all sectors (100, 50_W, and 25_W), the average fraction of labelled soil water measured in the tree was consistent with that in the soil and reflected the number of soil sectors receiving labelled water in the respective treatment (100%, 50%, or 25% of enriched soil water). Conversely, when the labeled water was applied only to one or two soil compartments (25_D and 50_D), the average fraction of enriched soil water in the trees was higher than when the other compartments received unlabeled water (25_W and 50_W), indicating a higher water uptake by the roots in the irrigated sectors. Interestingly, in all treatments except the 100, we observed a high variability in the fraction of labelled soil water among different parts of the canopy within each tree. When soil water availability was homogeneous (50_W, 25_W), at least one sector of the tree canopy showed a negligible (<10%) contribution of labelled soil water, indicating that water flow was predominantly axial. When part of the soil was dry (50_D, 25_D), lateral water movement was enhanced, evidencing that hydraulic sectoring is affected by the water availability at root level. Therefore, when trees have access to water pools with different availability and isotopic fingerprint, the isotopic composition of water could be spatially variable also within the plant. This has consequences in ecohydrological studies.

How to cite: Giuliani, N., Haug, A.-L., Brighenti, S., Aguzzoni, A., Zanotelli, D., Penna, D., and Tagliavini, M.: Evidence of xylem hydraulic sectoring in apple trees from a deuterium tracing experiment in a split-root system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3707, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3707, 2025.

EGU25-7378 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Isotope-Enhanced Ecohydrological Modeling of Snow-Driven Recharge in Semi-Arid Mountains 

Nadia Rhoujjati, Sylvain Kuppel, Yassine Ait Brahim, Ali Rhoujjati, Nicolas Patris, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Taha Attou, and Lahoucine Hanich

This study investigates the dynamic behavior of snow in semi-arid mountainous landscapes, emphasizing the use of the isotope signal as a tool for tracing hydrological processes. Thin snowpack poses a significant challenge, leading to extensive shifts in isotope values and complicating the estimation of catchment-average snowpack signatures. Traditional mixing models fall short in such scenarios, necessitating detailed approaches involving sampling along the hydrological pathway. The research employs a tracer-enabled spatially-distributed, process-based ecohydrological modeling approach to evaluate groundwater recharge processes in the complex settings of a regional watershed in the Middle Atlas mountains of Morocco. The study's objectives are to quantify recharge rates and dynamics seasonal variations, conducting a comparative analysis of yearly to sub-seasonal trends dating from 2017 onwards, and exploring stable isotope dynamics in snow-fed compartments of the hydrological cycle. The preliminary results of the ecohydrological simulations are discussed ; the simulated streamflow exceeds observed values, attributed to factors such as low winter evapotranspiration and the generalized spatialization of parameters. Variations in water table levels of each aquifer, and evapotranspiration data reveal a time lag influenced by seasonal variations and vegetation density. Stable isotopes closely mirror observed data, indicating the model's capability to capture the dynamic behavior of the aquifer system, with spatialized maps revealing a time delay between peak SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) abundance and isotopic depletion. Recharge dynamics are notably influenced by Triassic clay formations, with higher rates in exceptionally wet years and variations based on geological properties. The study highlights the important role of SWE in groundwater recharge, with peak SWE coinciding with major recharge events, and decreasing SWE contributing to groundwater depletion.

Keywords: Recharge, snowpack, isotope, ech2o-iso, snowmelt.

How to cite: Rhoujjati, N., Kuppel, S., Ait Brahim, Y., Rhoujjati, A., Patris, N., Bouchaou, L., Attou, T., and Hanich, L.: Isotope-Enhanced Ecohydrological Modeling of Snow-Driven Recharge in Semi-Arid Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7378, 2025.

EGU25-8051 | Posters on site | HS10.10

Effects of fertilizer and weeding on stable isotope composition (¹³C–¹⁸O) in different carbohydrate pools across the cassava canopy 

Wivine Munyahali, Jonas Van Laere, Fidèle Barhebwa, Damas Birindwa, Roel Merckx, Rebecca Hood-Nowotny, and Gerd Dercon

Intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) is a critical characteristic for optimizing cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) performance under climate change. Stable isotope composition provides a valuable tool for estimating iWUE, yet the key drivers of isotope variation across the cassava canopy remain unclear. In this study, conducted at 17 farms across three agroecological zones in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, we examined how agronomic practices (fertilizer application and weeding) influence carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (Δ¹⁸O) isotope composition at different canopy positions and in carbohydrate pools during the bulk root initiation stage. Physiological and morphological variables were measured at noon across the upper, middle, and lower canopy of cassava plants grown on-farm during the rainy season. These variables were related to δ¹³C and Δ¹⁸O in bulk leaf material, extracted cellulose, and soluble sugars.

Fertilizer application increased δ¹³C of soluble sugars (+0.6 ‰, p < 0.1) and bulk (+0.3 ‰, p < 0.1) in the drier zone, suggesting enhanced iWUE under fertilized conditions. Path analysis showed that leaf nitrogen concentration became increasingly correlated with δ¹³C from the upper to the lower canopy, while the influence of stomatal conductance declined. In upper-canopy leaves, higher stomatal conductance was associated with elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), possibly due to co-varying increased light intensities. Assumptions of the dual isotope approach related to Δ¹⁸O were not met, and therefore require further investigation. These findings provide new insights into the drivers of iWUE in cassava, highlighting the roles of canopy position and agronomic practices. This knowledge can inform strategies to improve cassava resilience and productivity under climate change.

How to cite: Munyahali, W., Van Laere, J., Barhebwa, F., Birindwa, D., Merckx, R., Hood-Nowotny, R., and Dercon, G.: Effects of fertilizer and weeding on stable isotope composition (¹³C–¹⁸O) in different carbohydrate pools across the cassava canopy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8051, 2025.

EGU25-8143 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Effects of drought stress on assimilation and carbon allocation in a fruiting arabica coffee plant explained by 13C-CO2 pulse labelling 

Janice Nakamya, Jonas Van Laere, Rebecca Hood-Nowotny, Roel Merckx, Christian Resch, Jason Mitchell, Brenda Trust, and Gerd Dercon

The effects of drought on coffee yield and quality during the flowering and fruiting stages are becoming a challenge in many coffee-producing regions. Nevertheless, coffee plants exhibit various adaptive mechanisms that mitigate the effects of short-term water scarcity during these phenological phases. Plants undergo numerous physiological and metabolic alterations in response to water deficits during their critical developmental stages, for example, during flowering, one of the stages that is related to yield. Although understanding these responses is essential for effective breeding and management strategies, they remain inadequately documented for coffee. This study employed a rapid and accurate method of pulse labelling utilising 13C-CO2 on 32 four-year-old Venecia Arabica coffee plants from Costa Rica in a greenhouse. Carbon assimilation in young and old leaf pairs was assessed at 10, 11, 12, and 13 days post-stress initiation to determine the metabolic differences in leaf age and orientation. The allocation of assimilates to soluble sugars, starch, and cellulose in various structural components, such as fruits, stems, roots, and old and young leaves, was also measured at harvest (15 days of stress). These findings demonstrate a significant reduction (p< 0.05) in carbon assimilation and, consequently, photosynthesis under drought stress conditions, with a more pronounced decrease in older leaf pairs. This study revealed altered assimilate partitioning, with plants prioritising allocation to roots to presumably sustained soil water uptake. Conversely, under water stress, carbon allocation to young leaves diminished, whereas in fruit, a priority sink,  the assimilates remained constant for starch but increased for sugar (0.33±0.21%). Carbohydrate metabolism exhibited notable changes, including a significant (p< 0.05) decrease in foliar soluble sugars and enhanced starch allocation to stems and roots. Additionally, a significant (p< 0.0001) increase in cellulose production was observed, particularly in the older leaves (94%), stems (93%), and roots (89%), which suggests a physiological drought response with the upregulation of cellulose production, possibly providing structural support and protection against herbivory. In summary, this study revealed a response to short-term water deficit between the two leaf age categories and clarified the allocation of new assimilates in Coffea arabica. L. This study provides a foundation for improved breeding and management strategies to support the resilience and sustainability of coffee production.

 

How to cite: Nakamya, J., Van Laere, J., Hood-Nowotny, R., Merckx, R., Resch, C., Mitchell, J., Trust, B., and Dercon, G.: Effects of drought stress on assimilation and carbon allocation in a fruiting arabica coffee plant explained by 13C-CO2 pulse labelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8143, 2025.

EGU25-8739 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Ecohydrological characterization of a terraced hill vineyard in Corno di Rosazzo (Italy) 

Mirco Peschiutta, Vittoria Posocco, Martina Tomasella, Lucìa Nadia Biruk, Paolo Sivilotti, Giorgio Alberti, Mauro Masiol, Luca Zini, Chiara Calligaris, Giuliano Dreossi, Mirko Sodini, Klemen Lisjak, and Barbara Stenni

Climate change is causing more frequent heat waves and droughts in recent summer in the Mediterranean area. This phenomenon is posing risks for viticulture, regarding both the quantity produced and the quality of the wines. Adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change effects include the use of emergency irrigation and soil management practices. In this context, ecohydrological studies about the water dynamics in the soil, as well as the patterns and variability of vines root water uptake (RWU) depth throughout the growing season, can provide valuable insights for achieving more efficient and sustainable water resource use in viticulture.

As part of the Interreg Ita-Slo IRRIGAVIT project, during the 2024 growing season, we conducted an ecohydrological characterization of a vineyard cultivated with Vitis vinifera cv. Ribolla Gialla (grafted on Kober 5BB) on a terrace in Corno di Rosazzo (Friuli Venezia-Giulia, Northeast Italy), using stable water isotope composition (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) to track water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. The site was chosen due to its soil composition, primarily consisting of flysch residuals (weathered alternations of marls and sandstones).

We sampled monthly precipitation from February 2024 to January 2025, as well as individual precipitation from spring to late summer 2024. In the plot located on the highest terrace of the hillslope, we sampled soil and vines sap every two to three weeks, collecting three soil cores and nine sap samples per sampling date. Soil cores were divided into 10 cm segments down to 35 cm of depth and 20 cm segments from that to the maximum reached depth (more than 1 m). Soil water was extracted in the lab using a cryogenic vacuum distillation (CVD) line. Sap samples were extracted using a vacuum pump system in the field from three shoots of plants close to each drilling point.

Rainwater and soil water samples were analysed using a CRDS laser spectroscope Picarro L2130-i in liquid mode, while the sap samples were analysed with the same instrument, coupled with a Picarro Induction Module to minimize the organic spectral interference. In addition, soil water content and water potential were measured, and soil mineralogy and particle size were assessed. Soil moisture and plant water potential were monitored in the field.

The 2024 growing season was particularly challenging for viticulture in Northeast Italy: frequent rainfall in spring damaged vines’ flowers, the summer was hot and dry, while heavy rainfall occurred during harvest. Visual inspections of soil samples revealed roots reaching up to 1.50 m deep. Isotopic data indicated that vines RWU occurred mainly in the top 20 cm of soil, which retained sufficient moisture even during the hot, dry summer with high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) values. This may have been due to soil management practices, such as using shredded cover crops to create mulch, enriching the topsoil with organic matter and improving water retention.

How to cite: Peschiutta, M., Posocco, V., Tomasella, M., Biruk, L. N., Sivilotti, P., Alberti, G., Masiol, M., Zini, L., Calligaris, C., Dreossi, G., Sodini, M., Lisjak, K., and Stenni, B.: Ecohydrological characterization of a terraced hill vineyard in Corno di Rosazzo (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8739, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8739, 2025.

EGU25-8777 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Seasonal isotope distribution in soil profiles and its implications for plant water uptake 

Franciele de Bastos, Michael Stockinger, Megan Asanza-Grabenbauer, and Christine Stumpp

The increase in average temperatures and change in precipitation patterns derived from climate change affect forests differently, varying from the species' composition and forest characteristics. Understanding the ecophysiological behavior of trees under climate change and its impacts on the hydrological processes on a catchment scale requires a multidisciplinary approach, with an initial focus on the interactions on the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. To better characterize soil water availability dynamics and comprehend how it may be affected by climate change, water isotope ratios of conservative tracers (δ18O, δ2H) can be used as fingerprints of infiltration processes, providing information on the seasonal origin of soil water infiltrated in the vadose zone. This study aims to characterize profiles of water isotopes in soil water to evaluate its seasonal isotope distribution. This information will be essential for further evaluations of seasonal water use by trees, contributing to understanding processes from the plot to the catchment scale.

The study will be conducted in an experimental plot (DRAIN Station) in the Rosalia catchment (950 ha), located on the border between the Austrian states Burgenland and Lower Austria. The catchment elevation ranges from 385 to 725 m, with a mean annual precipitation of 790 mm and a mean annual temperature of 8.2 °C. The soils are predominantly Cambisols, and the main land use comprises forests, predominantly beech (Fagus sylvatica) and Norway spruce (Picea abies). The DRAIN Station is located upstream in a beech stand representative of the forest in the catchment and has an average slope of 16°. This plot is a permanent monitoring station part of the LTER (Long-Term Ecosystem Research), a global network focused on long-term measurements of nitrogen, carbon, and water balance. A variety of environmental variables are measured at plot and catchment scale, adding spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the evaluation of hydrological processes.

At the DRAIN Station, a transect of four soil profiles representative of the plot will be defined and soil samples will be collected every 5-10 cm down to 60 cm using a split spoon sampler. To determine the precipitation water isotope ratios, daily precipitation data collected at the catchment’s climate station will be analyzed. The soil and water samples will be analyzed in the laboratory for stable isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) using a Picarro laser-spectroscope. The mean monthly water isotope ratios in precipitation will be determined over 12 months and compared with the water isotope profiles of δ18O and δ2H.

These results will enhance the understanding of the infiltration processes and seasonal distribution of water fluxes in the vadose zone. Moreover, the spatial variability of isotope ratios among soil profiles, such as infiltration depth and velocity, will be assessed. By integrating the seasonal isotope distribution in soil profiles with transit time distribution and hydrological modeling, a deeper understanding of the hydrological processes across different scales can be achieved.

How to cite: de Bastos, F., Stockinger, M., Asanza-Grabenbauer, M., and Stumpp, C.: Seasonal isotope distribution in soil profiles and its implications for plant water uptake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8777, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8777, 2025.

EGU25-9711 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Stable Isotope Fractionation in an Agricultural Field during Wet-Dry Cycles 

Adhitya c u, Richa Ojha, and Saumyen Guha

In an agricultural field, crops in the Rabi and Zaid seasons are exposed to repeated wet-dry cycles between precipitation and/or irrigation events. There is a general consensus in the literature that no isotopic fractionation occurs during water uptake by the plants. The isotopic shifts in soil water at different soil tensions, if occurs during repeated wet-dry cycles, are expected to influence the isotopic composition of the plant’s xylem water. The objective of this study was to investigate the isotope enrichment and/or depletion during repeated wet-dry cycles in an agricultural field within the plant-available water range, specifically from field capacity to wilting point. The pressure-saturation curves and isotope retention patterns were compared to observe the changes in the isotopic compositions of plant-available water.

The laboratory experiments were conducted with soil (silty sand) from an agricultural plot that undergoes regular cultivation of 2-crops a year (Rice-Wheat) with no tillage. A modified pressure plate apparatus was fabricated to simultaneously measure the pressure vs. saturation and isotope compositions at each pressure. The pressure plate apparatus was designed to ensure mass balance across the imbibed, exuded, and retained water at each suction pressure, throughout all the wet-dry cycles. The experiments were conducted over five wet-dry cycles with the same reference water of known isotopic composition. The exuded water was analyzed directly, and the retained water content at each suction pressure of five wet-dry cycles was extracted using cryogenic vacuum distillation. The isotopic composition of all the samples was analyzed using an LGR OA-ICOS liquid water isotope analyzer.  

The pressure-saturation curves across all five cycles exhibited no significant changes for drainage. Drained water, even at a small suction pressure of 0.1 bar, was enriched in both δ²H and δ¹⁸O compared to the isotopic composition of the imbibed water. Within a cycle, both δ²H and δ¹⁸O in the exuded water showed depletion as the suction pressure increased. The δ²H composition of the exuded water became enriched with the progression of the wet-dry cycles. The δ¹⁸O composition of the exuded water, on the other hand, showed depletion with the progression of the wet-dry cycles. These results indicate that plant xylem water may show a mismatch with irrigation water due to fractionation during the wet-dry cycles.

How to cite: c u, A., Ojha, R., and Guha, S.: Stable Isotope Fractionation in an Agricultural Field during Wet-Dry Cycles, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9711, 2025.

EGU25-9792 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Revealing the origin and age of tree water uptake along a forested hillslope 

Célia Rouvenaz and Marius Floriancic

crouvenaz@student.ethz.ch

floriancic@ifu.baug.ethz.ch

 

The forest water cycle is dominated by vegetation-mediated processes, such as interception, infiltration, and transpiration, that greatly affect the redistribution of water between the atmosphere and subsurface. Yet, subsurface water transport and storage are poorly understood, complicating comprehensive analyses of tree water uptake.

Here we explore the performance and sensitivity of the model EcH2O-iso with a novel isotope tracer dataset from the WaldLab experimental forest site, a small catchment located in a mixed beech and spruce forest in Zürich, Switzerland. Five years ago, we began measuring water fluxes and stable water isotopes in precipitation, soils of various depths, groundwater, streams and xylem. The model EcH2O-iso is a process-based, spatially distributed ecohydrological model which allows to use water isotopic tracers (2H and 18O) for age tracking. Each grid cell is locally coupled with energy balance, hydrological transfer, vegetation growth and dynamics.

After setting up and parametrizing the model we validated model outputs with the measured isotope timeseries in different depths of the soil, groundwater, streamflow and xylem water along the sampled hillslope. We also tested to what extent input precipitation isotopes measured outside the forest are a reliable input to the model, by rerunning simulations with inputs from i) measured throughfall isotopes and ii) isotopic values obtained from drainage from the forest-floor litter layer. We performed multiple sensitivity analyses to better understand the sensitivity of certain model parameters and assessed which parameters need to be calibrated more precisely for future use of the model for this site.

How to cite: Rouvenaz, C. and Floriancic, M.: Revealing the origin and age of tree water uptake along a forested hillslope, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9792, 2025.

EGU25-9957 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Geographical, spatial, and temporal water sources in a Mediterranean forested catchment. 

Mingming Feng, Francesca Sofia Manco di Villahermosa, Matteo Verdone, Ilenia Murgia, Ginevra Fabiani, Giulia Zuecco, Stefano Brighenti, Jiulian Klaus, Christian Massari, Marco Borga, Ming Jiang, and Daniele Penna

Forested catchments play a key role in storing and releasing fresh water. Climate changes affect global hydrological and ecosystem processes with effects also observed at small scales. In this context, investigating spatial and temporal water origins in small forested catchments is fundamental to understand and better predict the behavior of hydrological processes. However, very little is known about both the spatial and temporal origin of water across different ecohydrological compartments in Mediterranean forested catchments.

In this study, we collected hydrometeorological and isotopic data in the Re della Pietra experimental catchment (2 km2) located in the Tuscan Appennines (Central Italy) to understand the origin of stream water at different spatial and temporal scales and the sources of tree-water uptake. Starting in April 2019, we collected water samples for isotope analysis (d18O, d2H) from precipitation, throughfall, springs, and the stream at different sections (4 locations from upstream to downstream). In addition, we sampled soil at different depths (0-20cm, 20-40cm, 40-60cm) and several monitored beech trees. Hydro-meteorological parameters are monitored in the Lecciona subcatchment (0.3 km2).

Results based on the HYSPLIT model revealed that the Northern Lower Atlantic dominates the water vapor of precipitation in both wet and dry periods. In contrast, water vapor from the Arctic Ocean was observed only in wet periods, while in dry ones, there was a small contribution of Mediterranean water vapor. Furthermore, there were significant spatial and temporal variations of isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) and electrical conductivity among water in various ecohydrological compartments. Both the main stream and the tributary were mainly recharged by spring water and only secondarily by precipitation and soil water with significant seasonal variations. Spring water decreased in wet periods but increased in dry periods, and precipitation and soil compartments showed opposite behaviours. Trees mainly used soil water from shallow layers(0-20 cm: 51.1% ± 13.1%, 20-40 cm: 37.1% ± 15.6%, 40-60 cm: 7.5% ±6.3%) in wet periods, while in dry periods, tree water uptake came from deep soil layers(0-20 cm: 13.41% ± 12.7%, 20-40 cm: 55.6% ± 26.1%, 40-60 cm: 8.35% ± 3.6%). The dominant negative values of the Seasonal Origin Index in all ecohydrological compartments except shallow soil layers revealed that winter precipitation was used even in midsummer by the trees and that both surface and subsurface water reflect larger contributions from winter sources. These results imply the resilient behaviour of this catchment to cope against summer droughts and provide a preliminary theoretical basis for managing forest and water resources in Mediterranean catchments.

How to cite: Feng, M., Manco di Villahermosa, F. S., Verdone, M., Murgia, I., Fabiani, G., Zuecco, G., Brighenti, S., Klaus, J., Massari, C., Borga, M., Jiang, M., and Penna, D.: Geographical, spatial, and temporal water sources in a Mediterranean forested catchment., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9957, 2025.

EGU25-10527 | Posters on site | HS10.10

Which water sources do trees on floodplains in southeastern Brazil use for transpiration? 

Aline Meyer Oliveira, Marius Floriancic, Fernanda Moreira Gianasi, Barbara Herbstritt, Patricia Vieira Pompeu, Felipe de Carvalho Araújo, André Maciel Silva-Sene, Miguel Gama Reis, Camila Farrapo, Leony Aparecido Silva Ferreira, Rubens Manoel dos Santos, and Ilja van Meerveld

Seasonal floodplain forests are important ecosystems that attenuate floods and have high biodiversity. However, floodplains are threatened by human activities, such as dam building, agricultural water use, and climate change. Improving our understanding of the functioning of floodplain forests can aid in their protection. Trees in the floodplain forests in southeastern Brazil experience flooding for more than a month per year but also must endure very dry periods where the groundwater level is several meters below the surface. Species composition depends on the flooding regime, but which water the trees use for transpiration is largely unknown. As a result, their vulnerability to changes in climate or flooding regime remains poorly understood.

We sampled the different water sources (precipitation, streamflow, groundwater, and soil water at different depths) and vegetation (covering more than 60 tree species) across six floodplain forests in the Rio Grande and São Francisco basins in southeastern Brazil during four campaigns (two dry and two wet seasons). At each floodplain, we took samples from three different “eco-units”: levees (close to the river), terraces (wettest parts of the floodplain), and plains (regions that do not get flooded). The samples were analyzed for the abundance of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes. These data were used together with the MixSIAR model to investigate the contribution of soil water (down to 1 m) for tree water uptake.

The variability in xylem water was large and there was no consistent variation in the isotopic composition of the soil water between the dry and wet seasons. Instead, soil water reflected the isotopic signature of wet season precipitation and overbank flow. We hypothesize that the soil isotopic signature is reset by precipitation and overbank flow every wet season. There was also no consistent pattern in the isotopic composition of the xylem water across the three “eco-units”. The mixing model analyses suggest that for the floodplains in the Rio Grande basin, soil water was the main source during the wet season (64% ± 17) but not during the dry season (43% ± 17), when groundwater or stream water were the predominant sources. For the floodplains in the drier São Francisco basin, soil water was the main source of tree water uptake (60% ± 17 and 72% ± 15 for wet and dry seasons, respectively). However, uncertainties are very high due to the similar isotopic composition of the potential source waters.

How to cite: Meyer Oliveira, A., Floriancic, M., Moreira Gianasi, F., Herbstritt, B., Vieira Pompeu, P., de Carvalho Araújo, F., Maciel Silva-Sene, A., Gama Reis, M., Farrapo, C., Aparecido Silva Ferreira, L., Manoel dos Santos, R., and van Meerveld, I.: Which water sources do trees on floodplains in southeastern Brazil use for transpiration?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10527, 2025.

Agricultural crops play a crucial role in the global water cycle. Yet, climate change may alter crop physiology, agricultural ecosystems, and interactions within the land-atmosphere (L-A) system. Understanding crop transpiration (T) and soil evaporation (E) rates, along with their temporal dynamics and connection to the L-A system, is essential for predicting future hydro-climatic conditions and assessing agricultural land-use practices, particularly under the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
Here, we introduce the DFG Research Unit “LAFI” (Land-Atmosphere Feedback Initiative) subproject 3, which focuses on partitioning evapotranspiration into E and T using real-time water isotope in-situ measurements.
We will study water fluxes and their isotopic composition across the L-A system to investigate water-related processes in high temporal and spatial resolution via canopy and leaf chambers for evapotranspiration (ET) and T, as well as membrane probes for soil water vapor isotope measurements. This innovative isotope measurement platform will enable the determination of root water uptake (RWU) contributions and depths for key crop species (wheat and maize) at the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Observatory (University of Hohenheim, Germany). Additionally, it will facilitate the evaluation of water transit times and the partitioning of ET.
Analyses will be species-specific and will examine the impact of varying environmental conditions on RWU, water transit times, ET, and ET partitioning. The results will provide insights into the vulnerability of crop species to climate-induced changes in precipitation patterns and soil moisture availability.

How to cite: Orlowski, N. and Kübert, A.: DFG Research Unit: Land-Atmosphere Feedback Initiative (LAFI): Using real-time isotopic in-situ measurements to partition evapotranspiration into soil evaporation and plant transpiration at two distinct cropland sites , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11886, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11886, 2025.

EGU25-12138 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

A new laboratory approach to extract soil water for stable isotope analysis from large soil samples 

Jiří Kocum, Jan Haidl, Ondřej Gebouský, Kristýna Falátková, Václav Šípek, Martin Šanda, Natalie Orlowski, and Lukáš Vlček

The reliability of soil water stable isotope analysis is -among other things- based on a correct soil water extraction. Currently used extraction methods are prone to isotope fractionation (especially with clay samples) and exhibit shortcomings limiting and/or complicating their usage. A newly developed soil water extraction method –Circulating Air Soil Water Extraction– is based on the principle of complete evaporation and condensation of the soil water in a closed circuit. Owing to its simple design, there is no need for any chemicals, gases, high pressure or high-temperature regimes. On the other hand, at present, the proposed apparatus with four independent extraction slots can be used at most twice a day.

The experimental tests proved no significant isotope fractionation effects leading to erroneous results caused by the extraction. In all experiments, the δ18O and δ2H did not exceed the limits ± 0.2 ‰ and ± 2 ‰, respectively, which is fully acceptable for hydrologic studies. Extraction of pure water samples shifts the isotope composition by 0.04±0.06 ‰ and 0.06±0.35 ‰ for δ18O and δ2H, respectively.

Soil water extraction tests were conducted with five distinct soil types (loamy sand, sandy loam, sandy clay, silt loam, and clay) using 40-150 grams of pre-oven-dried soil, which was subsequently rehydrated to 10 and 20 % water content. The shift in the isotopic composition ranged from -0.04 and 0.07 ‰ for δ18O and from 0.4 to 1.3 ‰ for δ2H with the corresponding standard deviations ± (0.08 – 0.25) ‰ and ± (0.34 – 0.58) ‰. The results exhibit high accuracy which predetermines this method for high-precision studies where unambiguous specification of the water origin is required. The accuracy is adversely counterbalanced by a reduced number of processed samples per day: at present eight (2 x 4 simultaneously measured samples at four extraction slots).

The proposed extraction method has proven versatility in handling various soil types with different soil textures and water contents. The main advantages are the high accuracy of the results, simple design of the apparatus setup, low operating costs, time reduction in operating the device, easy maintenance, and the ability to process large soil samples providing large and representative quantities of soil water.

How to cite: Kocum, J., Haidl, J., Gebouský, O., Falátková, K., Šípek, V., Šanda, M., Orlowski, N., and Vlček, L.: A new laboratory approach to extract soil water for stable isotope analysis from large soil samples, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12138, 2025.

EGU25-14397 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

CryoSCOPE: Quantifying hydrologic partitioning in snow-dominated landscapes 

Dillon Mungle, Marius Floriancic, Peter Molnar, and Harsh Beria

The EU-Horizon project CryoSCOPE, launched in February 2025, investigates the interplay between atmospheric, cryospheric, and hydrologic systems across varied landscapes, including the Swiss Alps, Finnish Lapland, Svalbard, and the Himalayas. A key focus in CryoSCOPE is to quantify hydrologic partitioning—how precipitation is distributed among streamflow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration—in snow-dominated environments. By integrating stable water isotope data in different hydrological fluxes, evapotranspiration measurements from mobile flux towers, and extensive hydrometeorological data, CryoSCOPE will quantify partitioning processes over seasonal and interannual scales. This presentation highlights a case study from Waldlabor, a forested site in Switzerland, demonstrating the observed seasonal hydrological partitioning patterns.

CryoSCOPE emphasizes expanding stable water isotope datasets in cold regions, enhancing insights into hydrologic dynamics in snow-dominated systems. These efforts aim to improve predictive models and support sustainable water resource management in globally relevant “cold spots”. By advancing understanding of water distribution and movement in cold environments, CryoSCOPE provides critical knowledge to inform water management and policy development in the face of climate change.

How to cite: Mungle, D., Floriancic, M., Molnar, P., and Beria, H.: CryoSCOPE: Quantifying hydrologic partitioning in snow-dominated landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14397, 2025.

EGU25-14569 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

Evapotranspiration partitioning using stable isotopes of O and H 

Pravesh Singh, Diravia Balan, Richa Ojha, Rajesh Srivastava, Shivam Tripathi, Saumyen Guha, Gopal Krishan, and ms Rao

Partitioning of evapotranspiration (ET) is a fundamental challenge in ecohydrological research, critical for advancing our understanding of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. This study investigates ET partitioning for spring wheat crops grown at an experimental plot at IIT Kanpur using the stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen. By exploiting the distinct isotopic signatures of evaporation (E) and transpiration (T), the contributions of these processes to total ET were quantified. The isotopic compositions of ET and E were determined using the Keeling plot and the Craig-Gordon model respectively, whereas the isotopic composition of the stem was taken as the isotopic composition of T. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify and prioritize the accurate measurement of variables significantly influencing ET partitioning. Results indicated that the transpiration fraction in ET varied between 38% and 96%, depending on crop growth stage and water availability. A comparison of results from isotopic methods and hydrometric methods revealed good agreement on most days, with discrepancies on some days attributed to uncertainties in estimating key parameters such as temperature and relative humidity. To capture interannual variability, additional experiments were conducted in subsequent years, providing further insights into the dynamics of ET partitioning.  

How to cite: Singh, P., Balan, D., Ojha, R., Srivastava, R., Tripathi, S., Guha, S., Krishan, G., and Rao, M.: Evapotranspiration partitioning using stable isotopes of O and H, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14569, 2025.

EGU25-16403 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Belowground niche partitioning and water uptake dynamics in temperate grasslands using stable isotopes 

Sepideh Golshani, Tomáš Hájek, Undine Schöllkopf, Johanna Harisson, Hassan Jafari, Barbora Rybová, Katja Tielbörger, and Maria Májeková

Belowground niche partitioning is a key mechanism for maintaining plant species diversity in grasslands. However, limited empirical data and precise methodologies restrict our understanding of plant belowground coexistence strategies. Here, we examined various scenarios of plant species niche overlap based on their water uptake depths. The study was conducted across 75 grassland plots within the Biodiversity Exploratories in three distinct German regions, using the natural abundance of oxygen stable isotopes (δ18O) to link the plant xylem water to its source depth in the soil (up to 50 cm). By applying plot-level and regional-level mixed model statistical methods, we first tested the accuracy of water uptake depth predictions of 25 species as one of the critical steps. These water uptake depth predictions were then used to calculate the overlap in resource uptake niches among single-species water uptake flexibility across regions, as well as different growth forms and root systems of species.

Our results demonstrate that water uptake depths strongly correlate with environmental factors such as soil type and the geographical gradient of the plots. Regional-level mixed models demonstrated higher accuracy, revealing similar variations in water uptake depths across regions and species compared to the plot-level approach, highlighting diverse water use strategies in grasslands. Furthermore, our niche overlap findings indicate that fibrous root systems generally show greater overlap than taproot systems. Additionally, the overlap calculations for single species across three regions showed diverse patterns, emphasizing the utility of stable isotopes in addressing various ecological questions. These findings enhance our understanding of belowground coexistence mechanisms and ecosystem dynamics, emphasizing the importance of precise measurement techniques in revealing the complex interactions that drive resource use in temperate grasslands.

How to cite: Golshani, S., Hájek, T., Schöllkopf, U., Harisson, J., Jafari, H., Rybová, B., Tielbörger, K., and Májeková, M.: Belowground niche partitioning and water uptake dynamics in temperate grasslands using stable isotopes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16403, 2025.

EGU25-17104 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.10

The role of deep roots in enhancing drought tolerance and nutrient uptake in diverse species and genotypes of grasses 

Qiaoyan Li, Simon Fiil Svane, Olga Popovic, Georgios Statiris, and Kristian Thorup Kristensen

Deep roots play a vital role in water and nutrient uptake and supply to assist in higher tolerance of increasing drought events under current global climate change scenarios. However, few studies have been made under field conditions to identify the differences between species and genotypes of grasses in root traits, water use efficiency (WUE), and nutrient uptake under drought stress. Stable isotope applications have revolutionized our understanding of water and nutrient dynamics in root systems, offering precise insights into plant resource uptake. In this study, experiments with grasses were done in a large-scale semi-field root phenotyping facility (RadiMax) equipped with rainout shelters to simulate drought conditions. In five experiments from 2016 to 2023, we measured the variations of root traits related to rooting depth among grass species and genotypes. The RadiMax facility enables the observation of root growth in up to 600 lines of diverse species and genotypes, with 150 to 300 lines being utilized in various grass experiments. Root traits were observed through minirhizotrons to more than 2 m depth and were quantified using an AI-based image analysis system (RootPainter). The RadiMax facility also allows deep placement of stable isotopes (2H and 15N), to be used as tracers for deep uptake by the root system. In this study, stable isotopic labelling was used in three studies from 2019 to 2023, in combination with the natural enrichment of 13C as a drought stress indicator. In this way, direct root phenotyping through minirhizotrons was combined with deep root function phenotyping based on the stable isotope measurements. Our preliminary results indicate that deep rooting will benefit plants as it contributes to deep water uptake under drought conditions, which indicates that selecting deep root traits should be included in the breeding of grass cultivars, to develop more drought-resilient genotypes.

How to cite: Li, Q., Svane, S. F., Popovic, O., Statiris, G., and Kristensen, K. T.: The role of deep roots in enhancing drought tolerance and nutrient uptake in diverse species and genotypes of grasses, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17104, 2025.

EGU25-17243 | ECS | Orals | HS10.10

Stable water isotope seasonality at the soil-vegetation interface in cold climate 

Filip Muhic, Pertti Ala-Aho, Matthias Sprenger, Kashif Noor, Jeffrey Welker, Björn Klöve, and Hannu Marttila

Mixing and transport mechanisms of water in unsaturated shallow soil govern the partition of infiltrating water into the plant available water in soil water storage and groundwater recharge and modify the distribution of soil solutes and contaminants in subsurface. Consequently, they play a major role in the regulation of eco-hydrological processes at the soil–vegetation–atmosphere continuum. In sub-arctic regions, where both current and predicted warming rates are highest, the water cycle is undergoing marked changes and a limited understanding of storage and movement of water in soil has been recognized as one of the biggest knowledge gaps in addressing this issue. Stable isotopes of water are frequently used to explore water fluxes at the soil-vegetation interface, as they have proved to be a potent tool for tracing the origin and variability of waters that occupy different soil and plant compartments. 
We used a combination of field experiments and surveys that utilize stable isotopes of water as both natural and artificial tracer to assess the main drivers of spatiotemporal variability of water fluxes at the soil-vegetation interface in a sub-arctic catchment. First, soil coring and xylem sampling campaign was performed to quantify the variability of soil water isotopes under different land covers and in different seasons, and further identify under which conditions is soil water isotopic composition reflected in the stem water. Afterwards, an irrigation experiment using deuterated water was carried out on a forested hilltop to understand how infiltrating water gets redistributed in subsurface and how sub-arctic forest till soil and vegetation respond to massive infiltration events. The studies were conducted at the Pallas catchment, located in Northern Finland.
We found that seasonal rainfall variation and late snowmelt events were clearly represented in forest till soils, while the water input signal was heavily attenuated in forested peatlands. However, the seasonal evolution of soil water pools was not reflected in tree stem dynamics. In addition, the main infiltration mechanisms in shallow till soil were delineated through an inspection of interplay between soil water fluxes of different mobility. We further observed how a large snowmelt event can cause an isotopic homogenization of all water fluxes at the soil–vegetation interface.
Our results highlight the unique role of snowmelt in replenishing and sustaining soil water storage and modifying isotope dynamics at the soil–vegetation interface.

How to cite: Muhic, F., Ala-Aho, P., Sprenger, M., Noor, K., Welker, J., Klöve, B., and Marttila, H.: Stable water isotope seasonality at the soil-vegetation interface in cold climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17243, 2025.

EGU25-18327 | Posters on site | HS10.10

Testing a new method for extracting plant water for isotopic analysis 

Giulia Zuecco, Diego Todini-Zicavo, Elizabeth Joan Aarts, and Chiara Marchina

In ecohydrology, stable water isotopes (δ2H and δ18O) are valuable tools for investigating the water’s movement through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Recent tracer-based studies using stable water isotopes showed that different methods for extracting water from plant tissues can return different isotopic compositions due to the presence of organic contaminants and because these methods extract different plant water domains. While Cryogenic Vacuum Distillation (CVD) is widely recognized as a standard method of plant water extraction for isotopic analysis, its indiscriminate water extraction has proven problematic. Various other techniques have been developed and tested for plant water extraction, such as direct vapour equilibration, mechanical squeezing and centrifugation. However, there remains a necessity to develop a cost and time efficient method to discriminately extract xylem water, which better represents the source waters used by plants for transpiration.

In this work, we evaluated the viability of Vacuum Extraction (VAC) - a method previously used in ecophysiology for chemical analysis - for the extraction of plant water for isotopic analysis. The specific objectives were to i) assess the likely influence of organic contaminants (glucose, fructose, sucrose, ethanol and methanol) in water samples extracted by VAC, ii) determine whether there is a significant difference in the isotopic signature of plant water extracted by VAC from lignified samples with and without bark, iii) compare the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by VAC and CVD.

The comparison tests were carried out in late March and early July 2024 on trees or shrubs of Cornus sanguinea, Carpinus orientalis, Prunus cerasifera, Photinia serratifolia, and Populus canadensis, located in a village close to Padua (Italy). In March, samples were taken from lignified twigs, and we prepared replicates with and without bark for extraction by VAC. In July, twig samples were collected for extraction by VAC and by CVD. Given the negligible presence of organic contaminants in VAC samples, we performed their isotopic analysis by laser spectroscopy. Conversely, CVD samples were analysed by isotope-ratio mass spectrometry.  

Our results showed no significant differences in the sugar levels of samples with and without bark, and no clear relation between the sugar content and the isotopic composition of plant water extracted by VAC. Additionally, when comparing CVD and VAC, the δ18O values were similar, but there were significant differences in the δ2H between the two methods, with VAC samples plotting significantly closer to the Local Meteoric Water Line compared to CVD samples. These first results indicate that VAC is a promising and effective method for the extraction of plant water for isotopic analysis. However, further tests should be performed for other species and under different environmental conditions.

 

Acknowledgements: This study was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (PIANO NAZIONALE DI RIPRESA E RESILIENZA (PNRR) – MISSIONE 4 COMPONENTE 2, INVESTIMENTO 1.4 – D.D. 1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). This abstract reflects only the authors’ views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

 

How to cite: Zuecco, G., Todini-Zicavo, D., Aarts, E. J., and Marchina, C.: Testing a new method for extracting plant water for isotopic analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18327, 2025.

EGU25-18736 | Orals | HS10.10 | Highlight

Exploring root water uptake of beech and spruce trees across Europe  

Marco Lehmann, Josie Geris, Daniele Penna, Youri Rothfuss, Ilja van Meerveld, and Katrin Meusburger

Ecohydrological studies aiming to understand patterns in root water uptake by trees based on plant and soil water isotope data are often confined to one or a few nearby locations. In this study, we took advantage of recently established pan-European hydrogen (δ2H) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope datasets (10.16904/envidat.542) to assess root water uptake depth for beech and spruce trees across Europe. For a subset of sites, δ17O data were available as well.

Our analysis revealed consistent isotopic enrichment in xylem water of spruce trees compared to beech trees across all mixed-species sites (N=13), suggesting that spruce predominantly used shallower soil water regardless of environmental conditions. Additionally, we observed isotopic enrichment in stem xylem water from spring to summer at most beech and spruce sites (N=32), suggesting both species relied on isotopically enriched summer precipitation. Interestingly, for a subset of sites (N=8), there was an inverse pattern, with isotopic depletion in summer, implying shifts to deeper soil water sources or uptake of shallow soil water that was isotopically depleted in summer compared to spring conditions.

To further explore these findings, we will visually and statistically examine them using isotope data from the soil (10–90 cm depth). We will analyze the role of climate (using gridded data), alongside site-, soil-, and tree-specific metadata to better understand the factors influencing the variation in root water uptake at the continental scale. Additionally, we will explore the potential of oxygen-17 excess to provide further insights into root water uptake dynamics.

How to cite: Lehmann, M., Geris, J., Penna, D., Rothfuss, Y., van Meerveld, I., and Meusburger, K.: Exploring root water uptake of beech and spruce trees across Europe , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18736, 2025.

EGU25-1043 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.11

Multi-site investigation of the determinants of evapotranspiration partitioning with a mobile water isotope laboratory 

Daniel Schulz, Gilles Boulet, Nicolas Brüggemann, Aurore Brut, Valerie Le Dantec, Tiphaine Tallec, and Youri Rothfuss

Quantifying and partitioning evapotranspiration (ET) of agricultural ecosystems in various environmental settings enable studying the site-specific determinants of plant water use. The aim of the study was to conduct reliable and reproducible field-scale partitioning of ET into its component fluxes soil evaporation (E) and plant transpiration (T) from water stable isotope analysis (δ2H and δ18O). Isotope-based partitioning methods, because of their methodological independence to other, traditional, experimental or data-driven approaches, are useful for intercomparison. Campaigns were carried out at two agricultural field sites of the ICOS ecosystem thematic network, differing in their hydroclimate and crop settings. Isotopic partitioning was achieved by simulating (i) the isotopic composition of ET (δET) from atmospheric water vapor measurements and (ii) δE and δT from simultaneous destructive sampling of soil water and plant xylem water. Campaigns were carried out from June 22 to July 19, 2022 (sunflower crop, mean air temperature and relative humidity: 24 °C and 65 %) and from March 27 to April 18, 2023 (winter wheat, 12 °C and 75 %) in the Mediterranean site FR-Aur (Auradé, France), and from June 5 to August 26, 2024 (winter wheat, 19 °C and 73 %) in the temperate site DE-RuS (Selhausen, Germany). Up to three measurements per day of isotope-based partitioning results were confronted against estimates of ET obtained from on half-hourly eddy-covariance data. Non-isotopic ET partitioning was calculated based on simulations using half-hourly sap flow- (T) and daily microlysimeter measurements (E) during the 2022 campaign in Auradé. Both the non-isotopic and isotopic data showed an increase in daily T/ET ratios during the 2022 campaign. Daily mean T/ET ratios were 0.79 from sap flow/EC data, 0.75 from sap flow/microlysimeter data, and mean sub-daily isotopic T/ET ratios of 0.66 for sunflowers in 2022. T/ET ratios of winter wheat in Auradé 2023 showed a mean value of 0.92. The differences between the isotopic and non-isotopic T/ET ratios in 2022 might be a result of differences in measurement footprint, as field-scale EC-based partitioning was compared to sub-field scale isotopic partitioning. Estimation of T/ET uncertainty, calculated as from propagation of errors of the individually conducted measurements, was provided. While errors of daily sap flow/EC partitioning were lower compared to microlysimeter/EC and isotopic partitioning, errors of sub-daily EC/sap-flow T/ET exceeded the errors of the other two approaches. In addition, values of sap flow/EC T/ET increased over 100% from the late afternoon, showing a limitation of the sap flow/EC-based partitioning method on the sub-daily timescale. During the 2024 campaign, isotopic measurements were performed at an hourly resolution, and analysis of isotopic and non-isotopic T/ET ratios for the 2024 campaign is pending. The aim of future campaigns is the continuation of intercomparison between partitioning methods and the identification of differences and fit among T/ET partitioning approaches specifically to the considered temporal and spatial scales.

How to cite: Schulz, D., Boulet, G., Brüggemann, N., Brut, A., Le Dantec, V., Tallec, T., and Rothfuss, Y.: Multi-site investigation of the determinants of evapotranspiration partitioning with a mobile water isotope laboratory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1043, 2025.

EGU25-1261 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.11

Quantification of actual evaporation through different in-situ techniques for Dutch water management practices 

Liduin Bos-Burgering, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, and Remko Uijlenhoet

Historically, the Netherlands has predominantly managed water surpluses, consequently numerical hydrological models are calibrated and validated under conditions ranging from average to wet. However, as prolonged drought periods become more frequent, there is a growing need for models to simulate dry conditions. One of the key processes in drought simulation is evaporation (E). This study seeks to provide a deeper understanding of the quantification of actual evaporation (Eact) under dry circumstances in the Dutch agricultural sector and for water management practices. For this purpose, an extensive monitoring plan was implemented to estimate actual and potential evaporation (Epot) as well as soil moisture content, on an agricultural site in the Netherlands. A comparison between Epot and Eact during the drying and wetting phase is proposed to conduct an uncertainty analysis on various calculation and measurement methods. Furthermore, we will study the land- atmosphere interactions that influence Eact, and the effect of irrigation.

How to cite: Bos-Burgering, L., Coenders-Gerrits, M., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Quantification of actual evaporation through different in-situ techniques for Dutch water management practices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1261, 2025.

EGU25-1731 | Posters on site | HS10.11

Restoration Efforts in Riparian Ecosystems in the Colorado River Delta as Measured by Greenness Indices and Evapotranspiration (ET) and using Hydrology, Avian Studies and ET Change Maps  

Pamela Nagler, Libby Wildermuth, Patrick Shafroth, Eduardo Gonzalez-Sargas, Martha Gomez-Sapiens, Eduardo Jimenez-Hernandez, Armando Barreto-Muñoz, and Kamel Didan

Colorado River water has been allocated through recent Minutes (319 from 2014-2017; 323 from 2018-2026) to the 1944 Water Treaty between the United States and Mexico to support efforts to restore native riparian forests, which provide essential habitat for migratory birds, in the Colorado River delta. Our study was largely conducted in the context of assessing the effects of restoration efforts on riparian corridor health. We processed and analyzed remotely sensed data from 2000 to 2023 to assess large-scale dynamics of vegetation health by measuring satellite vegetation index (VI, a proxy for canopy greenness) and plant water use (actual evapotranspiration, ETa) in the riparian corridor.

Under Minute 323, water deliveries are used primarily to irrigate managed restoration areas. Our study reports the outcomes of restoration actions on variables such as vegetation extent and density through two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) measurements and hydrological processes including ETa. We integrated EVI2 with potential ET from two sources, the Yuma Valley Arizona Meteorological Station “AZMET” ground station and gridded Daymet, to calculate ETa. We quantify ETa in restoration sites compared to the unrestored reaches from 2000-2023. Our findings showed an average increase of 42% in EVI2, an indication of land cover greenness, within the restoration sites in the decade since 2014, when efforts by many non-government organizations collaborated to improve the riparian corridors, with one large effort in Reach 2 and a dozen smaller sites in Reach 4. Conversely, greenness in adjacent, unrestored areas in these reaches declined by 27%. The study also indicates a 22% increase in ETa in the restored areas, compared to a 31% reduction in the unrestored regions. Restored sites in Reach 4, which contains a dozen restoration areas, experienced ETa increases ranging from 9-12%, whereas their unrestored counterparts show a decline of 21%. Restoration efforts focusing on small plots have successfully revitalized habitat, the motivation for this research.

Measurements of VIs and ETa several years after the Minute 323 federal flows were delivered in 2020 and 2021 to the riparian corridor, including to restoration sites in Reaches 2 and 4, do not show any boost to the greenness and ETa in the unrestored riparian reaches in the delta after these federal flows were delivered. However, further downstream, in Reaches 5 and 7, the non-native shrub saltcedar (Tamarisk spp.) has been repeatedly defoliated by saltcedar beetles (Diorhabda spp.). Select regions of these defoliated shrubs in Reaches 5 and 7 were measured using Landsat time series data from 2000-2023 using peak growing season dates of May 1 through October 30. The measured change between the ETa in the first five years (2000-2004), with a mean of 737 mm/year, and latter five years (2019-2023), with a mean of 599 mm/year, showed a decrease of 138 mm/year in ETa, which is a decrease in ETa of 18.7%. Despite the challenges posed by small water deliveries and beetle defoliation for non-native saltcedar shrubs, restoration efforts focusing on small plots have successfully revitalized habitat, the motivation for this research.

How to cite: Nagler, P., Wildermuth, L., Shafroth, P., Gonzalez-Sargas, E., Gomez-Sapiens, M., Jimenez-Hernandez, E., Barreto-Muñoz, A., and Didan, K.: Restoration Efforts in Riparian Ecosystems in the Colorado River Delta as Measured by Greenness Indices and Evapotranspiration (ET) and using Hydrology, Avian Studies and ET Change Maps , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1731, 2025.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the primary pathway for dissipating terrestrial water resources, and a key process in regulating surface temperature. The Ts-VI feature space method is an important evapotranspiration simulation approach, reflecting the relationship between vegetation cover and the temperature-evapotranspiration response, while effectively balancing model complexity and efficiency. The key issue for Ts-VI feature space methods lies in the accurate identification of the four extreme endmember temperatures. However, the differences in feature points caused by applying the theoretical trapezoid framework at the pixel or areal scale have received little attention. The discrepancies and uncertainties between these two approaches, along with the resulting contradictions in trapezoid framework and differences in evapotranspiration simulation, are often neglected. This study firstly develops a fully explicit theoretical method for determining extreme endmember temperatures, simplifying the process and improving computational efficiency. Secondly, using the above explicit equation, a systematic comparison is conducted across four single-source Priestley-Taylor-based evapotranspiration models using four methods for determining extreme endmember temperatures: the empirical fitting method (EFM) as a reference, envelope theoretical method (ETM) and pixel theoretical method (PTM) at the areal scale, and the same pixel theoretical method with flux site observational meteorological data (PTMs). Thirdly, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of extreme endmember temperatures and their positional relationships within the trapezoidal framework across these different methods, and discussed their uncertainties through envelope analysis and sensitivity analysis. Using all site-year data from 9 AmeriFlux sites in the Southern Great Plains, along with MODIS and NCEP products from 2017. The results show that the proposed explicit theoretical calculation method is effective, with the four methods demonstrating the best validation results when compared to observed flux data, closed using the residual method, yielding RMSE values of 1.70 mm/d, 1.55 mm/d, 1.53 mm/d, and 1.51 mm/d, respectively. During the growing season of 2017, ETM exhibited an exceptionally high peak at the dry edge, while PTM and PTMs displayed frequent and dense high-value spikes, with particularly pronounced intensity. The positional discrepancies among the different trapezoidal frameworks were primarily observed at the dry edge, with PTM and PTMs showing a higher probability of the highest dry edge. Envelope analysis revealed that ETM, PTM, and PTMs occasionally failed to envelope all Fc-LST scatter points, leading to overestimations of evapotranspiration, particularly at the wet edge. In summary, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the theoretical trapezoidal framework, highlighting the discrepancies and uncertainties across different scales, and offers valuable insights for model implementation and improvement.

How to cite: Yang, L., Guan, H., and Shang, S.: Discrepancies and Uncertainties in the Application of the Fc-LST Theoretical Trapezoid Framework at Pixel and Areal Scales Using a Priestley-Taylor based Evapotranspiration Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2073, 2025.

EGU25-2096 | ECS | Orals | HS10.11

Enhancing Spatial Resolution and Accuracy of Land Surface Temperature: Integration of Regression-based and Surface Energy Balance Models 

Mohammad Karimi Firozjaei, Mehdi Rahimi, Majid Kiavarz, Leila Rahimi, Amir AghaKouchak, Carlo De Michele, and Salvatore Manfreda

Land surface temperature (LST) derived from satellite thermal sensors is a crucial dataset for environmental and urban studies. However, the limited spatial resolution and accuracy of these datasets may present significant challenges for various applications. This study introduces two innovative approaches to improve the spatial resolution and accuracy of LST: (1) a regression-based model integrating multiple sources of information and (2) a physically-based model of the Surface Energy Balance (SEB). The regression-based model employs, a decision-level fusion approach to minimize the impact of various error sources. Regression approaches include various combinations of regression models and different training and implementation strategies. In this study, four models were employed to develop an appropriate relationship between LST and environmental parameters: (1) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), (2) Support Vector Regression (SVR), (3) Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and (4) Random Forest Regression (RFR). For different model training and implementation approaches, the following strategies were considered: (1) Global Window Strategy (GWS), (2) Conceptual Window Strategy (CWS), (3) Regular Moving Window Strategy (RLWS), (4) Object-Based Window Strategy, and (5) Decision-Level Integration Window Strategy (DIWS). The second approach presents a novel physical model for enhancing the spatial resolution of LST using energy balance equations across different land cover types. For the first time, this model combines the Temperature Separation Principle (TSP) and Thermal Unmixing Model (TUM) frameworks to improve accuracy. This integration ensures that the physical nature of the spatial resolution enhancement process significantly mitigates scaling effects on LST accuracy, maintaining or improving the absolute accuracy of LST. The study uses diverse datasets, including imagery from Landsat 8 and MODIS Terra satellites, land cover maps, impervious surface percentages, digital elevation models, building heights, population density, and ground-based measurements. The study area included six cities in the United States (Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Seattle, and Kansas), 13 cities in Europe (Lisbon, Madrid, Zamora, Bucharest, Vienna, Prague, Paris, London, Warsaw, Copenhagen, Herning, Stockholm, and Helsinki), and one city in Iran (Tehran). The findings reveal that in urban and agricultural areas, biophysical characteristics predominantly influence LST distribution, whereas topographical features have a greater impact in mountainous regions. Urban areas exhibit stronger effects of surface texture and neighborhood characteristics on LST distribution compared to other regions. Incorporating neighborhood effects and landscape parameters in the spatial resolution enhancement process reduced the LST error by 0.8 K in warm seasons and 0.4 K in cold seasons. Furthermore, improving the spatial resolution of LST from 1000 m to 30 m using the regression-based model at the decision-making level and the SEB model reduced the LST error by an average of 2.5 K (3.4 K) in warm seasons and 1.2 K (1.8 K) in cold seasons. The SEB model also provided additional insights into temperature distribution by accounting for evapotranspiration and energy fluxes. These findings underscore the high potential of the proposed approaches in simultaneously improving the spatial resolution and accuracy of LST, making them highly applicable for environmental and urban studies. 

Keywords: LST, Spatial Resolution Enhancement, Surface Energy Balance, Regression Models, Decision-Level Integration

How to cite: Karimi Firozjaei, M., Rahimi, M., Kiavarz, M., Rahimi, L., AghaKouchak, A., De Michele, C., and Manfreda, S.: Enhancing Spatial Resolution and Accuracy of Land Surface Temperature: Integration of Regression-based and Surface Energy Balance Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2096, 2025.

EGU25-2848 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.11

Long-term gridded land evapotranspiration reconstruction using Deep Forest with high generalizability 

Qiaomei Feng, Dashan Wang, and Zhenzhong Zeng

Previous datasets have limitations in generalizing evapotranspiration (ET) across various land cover types due to the scarcity and spatial heterogeneity of observations, along with the incomplete understanding of underlying physical mechanisms as a deeper contributing factor. To fill in these gaps, here we developed a global Highly Generalized Land (HG-Land) ET dataset at 0.5° spatial resolution with monthly values covering the satellite era (1982–2018). Our approach leverages the power of a Deep Forest machine-learning algorithm, which ensures good generalizability and mitigates overfitting by minimizing hyper-parameterization. Model explanations are further provided to enhance model transparency and gain new insights into the ET process. Validation conducted at both the site and basin scales attests to the dataset’s satisfactory accuracy, with a pronounced emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, we find that the primary driver of ET predictions varies across different climatic regions. Overall, the HG-Land ET, underpinned by the interpretability of the machine-learning model, emerges as a validated and generalized resource catering to scientific research and various applications.

How to cite: Feng, Q., Wang, D., and Zeng, Z.: Long-term gridded land evapotranspiration reconstruction using Deep Forest with high generalizability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2848, 2025.

EGU25-4159 | ECS | Orals | HS10.11

Can we estimate evaporation using commercial microwave links? 

Luuk van der Valk, Oscar Hartogensis, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Rolf Hut, Bas Walraven, and Remko Uijlenhoet

Spatial evaporation estimates are essential information for studying the water cycle, yet the amount of direct observations, such as Eddy-Covariance (EC) networks, are limited. Satellites can also provide spatial evaporation estimates, but these are based on indirect measurements of surface conditions and contain many assumptions. As a new method, we explore the potential of commercial microwave links (CMLs), such as used in cellular telecommunication networks, to be used as scintillometers. Scintillometers are dedicated instruments to measure path-integrated latent and sensible heat fluxes, which transmit electromagnetic radiation that is diffracted by turbulent eddies between transmitter and receiver, the so-called scintillation effect. CMLs are also line-of-sight devices that transmit electromagnetic radiation at similar frequencies as microwave scintillometers. Here, we estimate 30-min latent heat fluxes and daily evaporation estimates using the received signal level from a CML sampled at 20 Hz. To do so, we use data of a 38 GHz Nokia Flexihopper CML (formerly part of a telecom network) installed over an 856 m path at the Ruisdael Observatory near Cabauw, the Netherlands. We compare our results with estimates of a combined optical and microwave scintillometer setup, as well as an EC system.

Before obtaining flux estimates, we correct for the white noise present in the signal of the CML, based on power spectra of the CML and the microwave scintillometer, and obtain 30-min estimates of the structure parameter of the refractive index Cnn. Subsequently, to obtain the flux estimates from these Cnn estimates, we apply the two-wavelength method, in combination with the optical scintillometer, as well as a standalone energy-balance method (EBM), requiring net radiation estimates. Also, we consider the free-convection scaling of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), instead of the complete scaling. An advantage of this scaling is that it removes the need for horizontal wind speed measurements, which are more difficult to obtain in complex environments. For the net radiation estimates, we use in-situ measured radiation and data products provided by the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) of EUMETSAT.

Considering both turbulent heat fluxes, the two-wavelength method outperforms the EBM. The standalone EBM shows a reasonable performance, but depends heavily on the quality of the net radiation estimates. When aggregating our 30-min latent heat fluxes to daily evaporation estimates, the overall performance for both methods remains comparable. These daily evaporation estimates could also be useful for hydrological applications, e.g., for catchment-scale water budget studies. Moreover, application of the free-convection scaling instead of the complete MOST scaling results in a comparable performance for all methods. Before adoption of our methods to obtain evaporation estimates using CML networks, the influence of different CML design types and their sampling strategies in operational networks on the obtained flux estimates needs to be studied. If these are successfully addressed, CMLs could show a large potential to estimate evaporation, especially considering that existing CML networks are present at locations where evaporation observations are lacking.

How to cite: van der Valk, L., Hartogensis, O., Coenders-Gerrits, M., Hut, R., Walraven, B., and Uijlenhoet, R.: Can we estimate evaporation using commercial microwave links?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4159, 2025.

EGU25-5188 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.11

Improving groundwater evapotranspiration modeling in saline areas by integrating remote sensing data 

Liya Zhao, Jingwei Wu, Qi Yang, and Anne Gobin

Groundwater evapotranspiration (ETg) is a crucial upward water flux in the water budget, especially in arid and semi-arid saline areas. Modeling ETg is challenging as it involves complex biogeophysical processes in both soil and vegetation dynamics. However, these processes are vastly oversimplified in commonly used process-based models like MODFLOW, where the ETg modeling relies solely on groundwater table depth. To disentangle this issue, this study presents the Evapotranspiration Package with Multi-factor (ETM), an enhancement to MODFLOW which additionally incorporates soil properties, vegetation information, and salinity levels to simulate spatiotemporal ETg. Compared to the original MODFLOW-EVT package, the proposed ETM package mitigates structural uncertainty by involving external soil and vegetation information based on optical remote sensing data. We conducted intensive experiments in Hetao, a one-thousand-year irrigation district in China. Daily groundwater table depth time-series for 108 observation wells were collected and used for calculating ground truth ETg based on the groundwater level fluctuation method. We evaluate the proposed ETM package in both well-level and regional-level experiments. In the well-level experiments, the ETM outperformed the EVT package with the coefficient of determination increasing from -1.698 to 0.449 and the RMSE reducing from 1.906 mm to 0.861 mm. Additionally, we employed the ETM package to model regional ETg for a 3,000-ha experimental area. Compared to the original EVT package which primarily considers groundwater level and results in more homogeneous outputs, the proposed ETM package demonstrated diverse ETg estimates in which the spatial pattern aligns with the prior knowledge. This improved approach addresses the shortcomings of previous models and contributes to more informed agricultural water resource management and planning through a deeper understanding of groundwater dynamics.

How to cite: Zhao, L., Wu, J., Yang, Q., and Gobin, A.: Improving groundwater evapotranspiration modeling in saline areas by integrating remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5188, 2025.

Transpiration flux estimations for individual trees usually rely on point-information obtained from a limited number of sap flow sensors and wood core samples. The underlying assumption is that sap flux densities and wood properties are sufficiently homogeneous within one tree and well represented by a few sensor measurements and wood samples. If this assumption is justified or not, however, has rarely been experimentally tested and quantitatively evaluated. Our objective was to quantify the variability of individual sap flux measurements within one tree and to answer the question how the observed uncertainty could most effectively be reduced.

We installed 23 sap flow sensors into, and took 30 wood core samples from one specimen of Pinus sylvestris. Eventually, we obtained six stem cross sections from the same tree. This extensive sampling allowed us to asses the within-tree variability of sap flow velocities, wood densities and sapwood depths. Based on our various measurements, we applied a boot-strapping scheme to quantify the uncertainty of tree level transpiration flux estimates that would result from different numbers of installed sap flow sensors and extracted wood cores.

Our results indicate that the temporal courses of sap flux densities within our studied tree were highly correlated to each other (R² >= 0.98), but their absolute values varied considerably (coefficient of variation (CV) of 11.3% and 26.6% for outer and inner measurement depths, respectively) without showing a remarkable spatial pattern. Wood densities were the least variable parameter (CV of 2.5%), while the uncertainty of the conducting sapwood area varied across six stem cross sections (CVs between 8% and 14%).

We conclude, that the within-tree variability of sap flux densities and sapwood areas – even for a tree stem without any remarkable anomalies – can quickly lead to considerable errors of sap flux estimates. In our case, the heterogeneity of sap flux densities (especially within the inner sapwood) was so high, that it dominated the overall uncertainty. Consequently, the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty of our sap flux estimates was to increase the number of installed sap flow sensors, while additional wood core information only started to pay off in conjunction with higher numbers (≥4) of installed sap flow sensors. A reduction of the overall sap flux uncertainty (CV of 16 % for one sap flow sensor and one wood core) to a CV around 5% would have required at least seven sap flow sensors combined with information of eight wood cores, but could as well have been achieved with ten sap flow sensors combined with the information of two wood cores.

How to cite: Seeger, S. and Maier, M.: How many sap flow sensors and wood cores are required to accurately measure the sap flux of one tree?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6242, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6242, 2025.

EGU25-7715 | Posters on site | HS10.11

Progress in implementing diverse strategies to enhance the understanding of water vapor and greenhouse gas fluxes across varied land covers in tropical regions 

Jamil Alexandre Ayach Anache, Edson Wendland, Luiza Jardim Machado, Heitor de Sousa Pantarotto, and Samuel Almeida Dutra Júnior

The tropics play a pivotal role in the terrestrial energy and water cycles, as well as regulating the carbon cycle. The increasing pressures over the remaining natural vegetation areas in Brazilian tropical forests, allied to climate change, are likely expected to alter these cycles. Despite the existence of studies that have already observed changes on water and energy fluxes, questions regarding heat and mass exchange mechanisms and the biophysical processes in tropical ecosystems and crops for food and energy production remain. In order to enhance the knowledge towards these research questions, in-situ monitoring with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed. This project aims to use and validate advanced approaches used to monitor and model water vapor, energy, and greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes through in situ monitoring (sampling) in strategic land covers and forest ecosystems. With this purpose, besides a fixed-continuous monitoring in a wooded Cerrado (a tropical woodland) equipped with an Eddy Covariance system, a mobile set up monitoring system to water and energy fluxes, and GHG concentrations measurements will be used in different areas. This system will be a non-steady-state flux chamber connected to a closed-path gas analyzer. The target monitoring areas include different land covers (soybean, pasture, sugar cane, and other agricultural areas) and undisturbed areas (wooded Cerrado and riparian vegetation). The expected outcomes will contribute to improve methodologies and models through the better comprehension of the dynamics and the shifts of the water, energy and GHG fluxes. After the in-situ monitoring following a representative sampling criteria to catch both seasonal and spatial variabilities to measure the selected fluxes, mathematical models will be calibrated to allow the expansion of the timeseries and simulations including possible variations in the input variables. Afterwards, the observations, parameters, and simulations will serve as input for hydrological repositories, carbon inventories, and new contributions about water, energy, and carbon fluxes in a tropical region. Disclaimer: This abstract describes an ongoing project. Please note that it does not contain any results or conclusions, as the work is still in progress.

How to cite: Ayach Anache, J. A., Wendland, E., Jardim Machado, L., de Sousa Pantarotto, H., and Almeida Dutra Júnior, S.: Progress in implementing diverse strategies to enhance the understanding of water vapor and greenhouse gas fluxes across varied land covers in tropical regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7715, 2025.

EGU25-8862 | Orals | HS10.11

Point dendrometers are simple and reliable tools for improving forest transpiration estimation accuracy at stand scales   

Ryan Bright, Danielle Creek, Holger Lange, Helge Meissner, Morgane Merlin, and Junbin Zhao

In terrestrial ecosystems, forest stands are the primary drivers of atmospheric moisture and local climate regulation, making the quantification of transpiration (T) at the stand level both highly relevant and scientifically important.  Stand-level T quantification complements evapotranspiration monitoring by eddy-covariance systems, providing valuable insight into the water use efficiency of forested ecosystems in addition to serving as important inputs for the calibration and validation of global transpiration monitoring products based on satellite observations.

Stand level T estimates are typically obtained by scaling up individual tree estimates of water movement within the xylem – or sap flow.  This movement affects the radius of a tree stem, whose fluctuations over the diel cycle provide pertinent information about tree water relations which can be readily detected by point (or precision) dendrometers.  While sap flow measurements have greatly advanced our understanding of water consumption (T) at the level of individual trees, deploying conventional sap flow monitoring equipment to quantify T at the level of entire forested stands (or ecosystems) can quickly become costly since sap flow measurements from many trees are required to reduce the uncertainty of the upscaling.

Using a boreal old-growth Norway spruce stand at an ICOS site in Southern Norway as a case study, we assess the potential of augmenting conventional sap flow monitoring systems with sap flow modeling informed by point dendrometer measurements to reduce the uncertainty of stand level T estimation at the daily resolution.  We test the hypothesis that the uncertainty reduction afforded by a boosted tree sample size more than offsets the propagation of uncertainty originating from the point dendrometer-based sap flow estimates.

How to cite: Bright, R., Creek, D., Lange, H., Meissner, H., Merlin, M., and Zhao, J.: Point dendrometers are simple and reliable tools for improving forest transpiration estimation accuracy at stand scales  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8862, 2025.

EGU25-8943 | Orals | HS10.11

An overview of satellite-based evapotranspiration products in the framework of the CEOS Land Product Validation Subgroup 

Carmelo Cammalleri and the CEOS Land Product Validation Subgroup - Evapotranspiration

Actual evapotranspiration (ET) is commonly the largest extractive term in the land surface water balance, thus representing a key component of any water management activity and water resource quantification. Unfortunately, in-situ ET observations are often expensive, sporadically collected, and representative only of local conditions. In this context, modelling approaches represent a widespread alternative for the characterization of ET over large areas and for log time periods. While most of the spatially-distribute ET estimation approaches relies on satellite data to some extent, not all these estimates can be considered as satellite ET products. Like other satellite-based datasets, ET estimates are indirect in nature, and often depend on modelling approaches characterized by a variety of approaches and input requirements integrating a mixture of satellite and non-satellite datasets. With continuous advancements and developments in satellite data, the number of continental to global satellite ET products are increasing and they are characterized by a vast variety of sensors and modelling methods. This increasing number of available ET products underscores the need for a concerted effort in defining the standards and protocols for validation and evaluation exercises, which is the main goal of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup. In this research, an overview of the methodologies adopted for the assessment of satellite-based ET will be provided, with a focus on the key hypotheses and forcings representing the “satellite” component of the approaches. This overview will provide a common reference of what constitute a satellite-based ET product, to be investigated by the CEOS LPV subgroup in the definition of recommended protocols to assess the accuracy and reliability of current and future continental to global satellite ET datasets.

How to cite: Cammalleri, C. and the CEOS Land Product Validation Subgroup - Evapotranspiration: An overview of satellite-based evapotranspiration products in the framework of the CEOS Land Product Validation Subgroup, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8943, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8943, 2025.

The resilience of regional hydrology in human-influenced landscapes is a key challenge in the context of climate change. Lusatia in East Germany is an example of a region facing complex challenges in water management due to massive open pit mining activities as well as being subject to increasing water climate-induced scarcity. This study presents a comprehensive validation and comparative analysis of multi-temporal satellite-based evapotranspiration evapotranspiration (ET) data at multiple spatial resolutions including the 2000m Central Europe Refined Analysis (CERv2) – a product derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by ERA5 reanalysis – alongside the 500m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global product and 30m Landsat based ET, using lysimeter and eddy covariance measurements as ground-based references. This approach aims to assess the accuracy and practical utility of these data products for informing regional water management strategies. For the first time, a long-term analysis of landscape water balance changes and resilience is conducted, focusing on evapotranspiration as a central parameter for assessing the spatial and temporal variability of water dynamics. To compare the time series data, metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to evaluate the agreement between satellite-based datasets and reference measurements. Our results reveal differences in the absolute values of evapotranspiration across the datasets. MODIS data, for instance, tend to underestimate evapotranspiration in water-saturated areas, while Landsat data appear to overestimate evapotranspiration in forested areas. These findings suggest the presence of systematic deviations influenced by specific hydrological conditions and land use types. Despite these differences, the datasets exhibit strong consistency in terms of spatial patterns as well as of generic temporal dynamics, suggesting that the key processes driving evapotranspiration are reliably represented. Analysis of long-term ET trends highlights the sensitivity of different land use types to climatic changes. Notably, all datasets indicate an increasingly earlier seasonal decline in ET on agricultural land over the past 20 to 30 years, reflecting shifts in water availability patterns. These findings provide a foundation for advancing water management models and developing sustainable management concepts. The insights not only support local management strategies but can also offer transferable frameworks for addressing similar challenges in comparable landscapes in Central Europe.

How to cite: Kröcher, J., Ghazaryan, G., and Lischeid, G.: Monitoring Changes in the Landscape Water Balance: A Comparative Analysis of Satellite-Based Evapotranspiration Data in the Northern German Lowlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11213, 2025.

Although Evapotranspiration (ET) has long been recognised as a key process for the redistribution of water and energy at a global scale, there remains uncertainty in the actual ET rates at a local scale from vegetated Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS). ET has been seen to account for between 61 % and 21 % of the water balance in these systems, demonstrating its significance in the overall system performance. There is a requirement to improve our understanding of the variance of ET rates from SuDS and similar systems. By extension, there is a need for robust ET estimation methods which can be readily applied to a variety of SuDS at different spatial and temporal scales.

The Three-Temperatures (3-T) method is one such approach, which only requires net radiation and surface temperatures from the vegetated surface and a corresponding imitation surface, alongside the overlying air temperature. This method has been previously applied to a variety of different surface types, spatial scales and environments. However, it has been met with a varying degree of success and often only produced spot ET estimates. Furthermore, its limitations are not fully understood and producing a continuous record of ET estimates allows us to see when and under what conditions spot estimates of 3-T ET may be considered credible.

This preliminary study aimed to determine if reasonable continuous ET estimates could be achieved from the 3-T method for a small vegetated surface analogous to SuDS and or green infrastructure (GI). This included the establishment of an experimental setup, which captured the relevant 3-T parameters and those required to calculate hourly reference ET rates as determined by the FAO 56 Penman–Monteith (P-M) method, to use for comparison purposes. Practical considerations (e.g. building shadowing) and sensitivity analysis of 3-T ET estimates to changes in the 3-T parameters were also explored, to provide a deeper understanding of the method’s robustness.

Initial results indicated that the 3-T method can produce periods of ‘reasonable’ continuous hourly ET values, between 0.0 mm.hr-1 to 0.5 mm.hr-1 under preferred conditions. Following a period (up to 3 days) of dry weather conditions, the cumulative reference ET was 2.3 mm and the corresponding 3-T ET was 2.9 mm, showing a total difference of 26% at the end of 3 days. The tendency of the 3-T method to produce higher ET estimates during the day compared to the reference ET values, was attributed to instances where the surface temperatures approach that of the air temperature. The preliminary findings show promise for the 3-T method to produce continuous records of ET, but have also highlighted the need for further research on the method’s application to vegetated SuDS and or GI.

How to cite: Wickham, B., Stovin, V., and De-Ville, S.: A preliminary study on the feasibility of continuously estimating evapotranspiration from vegetated surfaces using the three-temperatures method., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13187, 2025.

In recent years, the Alpine region has experienced an increasing frequency of drought events, leading to periods of reduced water availability and consequent impacts on both agricultural and hydropower production. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key variable for detecting drought conditions and optimizing water resource management, yet accurate estimates of ET at high spatial resolution remain scarce in mountainous regions. Remote sensing has become a valuable tool for generating spatially distributed ET maps using thermal infrared data. Among the existing methods, the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model has demonstrated robust performance across diverse land types and climates. In this work, we run TSEB simulations forced by input data optimized for complex terrain to assess the model's behavior in the Alpine region. Key datasets include topographically corrected high-resolution solar irradiance derived from a radiation product based on Meteosat Second Generation data (0.05° spatial resolution) and a high-resolution (5-m) land-cover map specific to the Alpine region. Vegetation height was obtained from a 30-m canopy height map derived from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) dataset, while biophysical parameters were estimated using distinct algorithms for forested and non-forested areas. We present a validation of the TSEB model at eddy covariance (EC) sites distributed across the Alpine region, representing a wide range of elevations and diverse land cover types. The model's performance was assessed using four configurations: (1) observed input variables from EC sites, (2) the standard Sen-ET implementation of TSEB using coarse resolution data, (3) high-resolution inputs as described above, and (4) a configuration incorporating meteorological data from a high-resolution analysis dataset. This work contributes to the PNRR project RETURN (Multi-risk science for resilient communities under a changing climate) and to the Italian National Drought Hydrological Monitoring System (NatDHMS).

How to cite: Deidda, P., Bartkowiak, P., and Castelli, M.: Improving Two-Source Energy Balance Modeling of Evapotranspiration in Complex Terrain: Validation at Alpine Eddy Covariance Sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13491, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13491, 2025.

Over a century of study of ecosystem water fluxes has resulted an abundance of in-situ measurement techniques causing the availability of robust and continuous measurements to quietly grown by orders of magnitude in the last few years. For example, the ten years since the release of the FLUXNET 2015 synthesis dataset (which contained records dating back 25 years) has more than doubled the amount of eddy covariance measurements publicly released, with now over a million total days of measurements taken from over 450 sites globally. Furthermore, other dataset synthesis efforts for sap flux, soil moisture, stream flow, etc., as well as combinations with proximal and remote sensing, quickly result in datasets much larger than can be tackled by an individual. The advancement of machine learning and computational power to digest and utilize this deluge of environmental data hold promise to be able to understanding global water cycles in an unprecedented detail. However, limitations to applying machine learning methods often comes not from computational power, but rather in understanding the particular uncertainties and nuances, as well as unique information on ecosystem functioning, that each dataset brings.

Here, I briefly outline the current state of the art of scaling ecosystem water fluxes from in-situ to regional and global scales through the example of eddy covariance and the FLUXCOM-X framework [1]. Particularly, I highlight the current sources of uncertainties, such as measurement corrections and spatial extrapolation, as well as the potential limitations of machine learning and artificial intelligence in tackling these issues. Furthermore, comparing up-scaled eddy covariance evapotranspiration and transpiration products to terrestrial land surface models demonstrates the discrepancy in the global ratio of transpiration to ET between process based and data driven methods, demonstrating how machine learning from in-situ scales can inform our understanding of global cycle. Finally, I explore how integration of multiple data sources holds promise in isolating individual ecosystem water fluxes and to link the local measurements of individual plants and ecosystems to the regional and global scales.

1 - Nelson and Walther et al., 2024. X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X. Biogeosciences 21, 5079–5115. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024

How to cite: Nelson, J. A.: Scaling terrestrial ecosystem water fluxes at the interface of in-situ measurements and machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15919, 2025.

EGU25-16088 | Orals | HS10.11

Capturing Fine-Scale Variability in Dryland Evapotranspiration Through Multi-Scale Thermal Image Analysis 

Kelly Caylor, Shadman Amin, Bryn Morgan, and Anna Trugman

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) in drylands is critically dependent on capturing fine-scale spatial variability, yet current thermal remote sensing approaches face significant scaling limitations. While satellite-based thermal imagery provides broad coverage for ET estimation, its coarse resolution fails to capture the heterogeneous vegetation patterns characteristic of dryland ecosystems, leading to systematic biases in ET estimates. The non-linear relationship between land surface temperature (LST) and ET means that coarse-resolution LST measurements cannot simply be averaged to estimate ecosystem-scale ET. Instead, the underlying spatial variance in LST must be properly accounted for when scaling between observations at different resolutions. Here, we demonstrate an approach using very high resolution (VHR) UAV-derived thermal imagery (0.3-m resolution) combined with multi-scale satellite observations (up to 90-m resolution) to develop scaling relationships between LST variance and spatial resolution. We show how these relationships vary with vegetation composition and seasonal dynamics in a dryland ecosystem over one year. By modeling how LST variance changes across scales, we can better estimate ET from coarser thermal imagery while preserving the influence of fine-scale heterogeneity. Our results indicate that vegetation pattern and phenological stage significantly influence scaling behavior, allowing us to identify optimal measurement resolutions for different ecosystem conditions. This approach reduces uncertainty in ET estimates from satellite thermal imagery by incorporating the effects of sub-pixel spatial variability revealed by VHR observations. The scaling relationships we develop provide a framework for improving regional ET estimates in drylands while accounting for their characteristic fine-scale vegetation patterns.

How to cite: Caylor, K., Amin, S., Morgan, B., and Trugman, A.: Capturing Fine-Scale Variability in Dryland Evapotranspiration Through Multi-Scale Thermal Image Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16088, 2025.

EGU25-16431 | Orals | HS10.11

Towards high resolution evaporation data integrating satellite observations and hybrid modelling over Europe and Africa 

Oscar M. Baez-Villanueva, Diego G. Miralles, Olivier Bonte, Akash Koppa, Joppe Massant, Fangzheng Ruan, Maximilian Söchting, and Miguel Mahecha

Terrestrial evaporation (E) is a critical climate variable that links the water, carbon, and energy cycles. It plays a vital role in regulating precipitation, temperature, and extreme events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. In hydrology, E represents a net loss of water resources, while in agriculture, it determines irrigation demands. Despite its significance, global E estimates remain uncertain due to the scarcity of ground-based measurements, the complexity of physiological and atmospheric interactions, and challenges in capturing E through satellite observations. Addressing these limitations, the fourth generation of the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM4¹) enhances the representation of E and its components by improving the representation of key processes such as interception loss, atmospheric water demand, soil moisture dynamics, and plant groundwater access. Using a hybrid framework that combines machine learning for evaporative stress estimation with physical principles, GLEAM4 balances interpretability with adaptability and validation against hundreds of eddy-covariance sites demonstrates its robustness and improved performance.

Building on GLEAM4, efforts are underway to develop a high-resolution (1 km) E dataset tailored to the needs of agriculture, water management, and climate adaptation. GLEAM-HR downscales precipitation from MSWEPv2.8 and radiative forcing data by optimally merging LSA SAF and MODIS. The innovations introduced in GLEAM-HR address fine-scale E dynamics, particularly in agricultural regions, while enabling the characterization of droughts, heatwaves, and water resource distribution in vulnerable areas. Preliminary results from GLEAM-HR over the Meteosat disk (covering Europe and Africa) highlight its potential to tackle water-related challenges, support sustainable water management practices, and contribute to evidence-based decision-making. In the future, the data products will be available publicly through an interactive 3D data cube application.


¹Miralles, D.G., Bonte, O., Koppa, A., Baez-Villanueva, O.M., Tronquo, E., Zhong, F., Beck, H., Hulsman, P., Dorigo, W., Verhoest, N.E. and Haghdoost, S. GLEAM4: global land evaporation dataset at 0.1° resolution from 1980 to near present, 20 November 2024, PREPRINT (Version 1) available at Research Square (https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5488631/v1)

How to cite: Baez-Villanueva, O. M., G. Miralles, D., Bonte, O., Koppa, A., Massant, J., Ruan, F., Söchting, M., and Mahecha, M.: Towards high resolution evaporation data integrating satellite observations and hybrid modelling over Europe and Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16431, 2025.

EGU25-16717 | Orals | HS10.11

Ensemble evapotranspiration estimates and uncertainties: EVASPA 

Samuel Mwangi, Albert Olioso, Gilles Boulet, Jordi Etchanchu, Vincent Rivalland, Nesrine Farhani, Jérôme Demarty, Chloé Ollivier, Kanishka Mallick, Tian Hu, Aolin Jia, Emmanuelle Sarrazin, Philippe Gamet, and Jean-Louis Roujean

Quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) beyond the local scale is essential for many water-related studies. Compared to in-situ instruments, Remote sensing (RS) has allowed the continuous monitoring of ET at larger spatial scales. By exploiting the physical relationship between remotely sensed surface biophysical parameters and the Earth’s thermal emission, continuous ET at such spatial scales can be obtained. In this study, we applied EVASPA, a tool that provides an ensemble of ET estimates, among other surface energy balance (SEB) variables, from various sources of data and several algorithms. Here, we applied MODIS data, which included: Land Surface Temperature/Emissivity (LST/E), NDVI, albedo, among others. Landsat data was separately applied for estimates at relatively high spatial resolution. Our multi-data multi-method approach resulted in 1215 ET estimates for the MODIS-based ETs (i.e., 5 LST/E (MYD/MOD 11/21 and VIIRS 21); 3 radiation sources (ERA5Land, MSG, MERRA); 9 Evaporative Fraction methods (5 S-SEBI based, 4 T-VI based), and 9 Ground heat flux methods (based on NDVI and LAI)). Evaluations using in-situ flux data yielded reasonable results even when a simple average was used (for example, RMSE of ~0.9 mm/d over the forested Puechabon site), with a broad absolute and performance range between the member estimates being observed (for instance, an ensemble RMSE range of ~0.6 to ~1.2 mm/d for the best-to-worst performing EVASPA members over the Puechabon site). Uncertainty analyses were also performed where we analysed how each of the distinct variables (i.e. radiation, LST, EF and G methods) influenced the modelled ET. Irrespective of the combination criteria selected, LST and EF were observed to be the main uncertainty drivers; this was despite instances where radiation resulted in higher uncertainties that were dependent on the combination selected and/or the period of simulation. G flux methods exhibited the least influence on the ensemble simulations. Overall, we showed that ensemble-based contextual modelling can provide enough spread for better flux simulations. This work aims to guide the establishment of an optimal weighting criteria of the members for improved ET estimates. The EVASPA algorithms will be used for providing ET estimates in the frame of the Indo/French future mission TRISHNA to be launched by the end of 2026.

Keywords: ET, SEB, contextual ET, multi-method multi-data, ensemble modeling.

How to cite: Mwangi, S., Olioso, A., Boulet, G., Etchanchu, J., Rivalland, V., Farhani, N., Demarty, J., Ollivier, C., Mallick, K., Hu, T., Jia, A., Sarrazin, E., Gamet, P., and Roujean, J.-L.: Ensemble evapotranspiration estimates and uncertainties: EVASPA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16717, 2025.

Global evapotranspiration (ET) products are critical for modeling climate, hydrology, land surface processes, and managing water resources. These products are derived using diverse methodologies, including machine learning, energy balance, and process-based models. While many studies have assessed ET products, they typically focus on specific regions or basins. Moreover, no intercomparison has specifically addressed irrigated areas, despite their significant role in regional climate and hydrology. To fill this gap, this study evaluates eight global ET products (FLUXCOM, MOD16A2, ERA5-Land, GLDAS-Noah, GLEAMv4, MERRA2, SSEBOP, PML v2) across 12 irrigated regions in the contiguous United States, Spain, Italy, Australia, China and India, characterized by diverse irrigation practices, climates, and crop types. The analysis examines ET dynamics and magnitudes in relation to auxiliary irrigation data (timing, equipment rates, and climate), includes a spatial evaluation of ET against the Global Map of Irrigated Areas (GMIA), and analyzes the spatial patterns of the ET/ETP ratio. The products are also locally validated using in situ ET measurements from five Eddy Covariance towers located in irrigated fields in California and Italy. Our results reveal substantial discrepancies among ET products in their ability to: i) detect irrigation signals, ii) capture seasonal irrigation patterns, and iii) estimate ET volumes consistent with crop water needs and local climatic conditions. Furthermore, the relationship between ET dynamics and irrigation information differs significantly between regions, sometimes even for the same product. These findings highlight the need to enhance global ET products to better incorporate irrigation dynamics, improving their utility for water management, climate modeling, and assessments of anthropogenic impacts on the Earth system.

How to cite: Laluet, P., Corbari, C., and Dorigo, W.: Intercomparison of global evapotranspiration products over irrigated areas using irrigation auxiliary information and in situ Eddy Covariance tower measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17630, 2025.

EGU25-18042 | ECS | Orals | HS10.11

Disentangling water flux dynamics on an eroded cropland using an automated chamber system, water stable isotopes, and novel data-driven machine learning approaches 

Adrian Dahlmann, David Dubbert, Marten Schmidt, Gernot Verch, John D. Marshall, Jürgen Augustin, Mathias Hoffmann, and Maren Dubbert

Understanding the water cycle is increasingly crucial to assess ecosystem resilience and ensure sustainable management and food security. Within the terrestrial water cycle, Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a pivotal role returning 60% of terrestrial precipitation back to the atmosphere. In agricultural systems, especially in water-scarce regions, understanding the water use of crops relative to their productivity (water use efficiency, WUE) is of paramount importance.

The AgroFlux sensor platform, including an automatic, robotic FluxCrane, is part of a long-term experiment in an agricultural system. We combine three years of ET measurements and two years of fully automated water stable isotope measurements coupled with campaign-based soil and plant measurements. The system is measuring along an erosion gradient with three different soil types to examine small scale heterogeneity of soils and their effect during various environmental conditions on different crops. The automated system generates data with high temporal and spatial resolution resulting in a new class of data that both enables and demands modern, efficient data analysis approaches. We use data-driven machine learning modeling approaches as an interface between the high-resolution monitoring networks and campaign-based measurements to provide better predictive results.

With our research we try to improve the knowledge of evapotranspiration by using novel modeling approaches coupled with measurements of common environmental parameters, plant specific parameters and water stable isotopes. We are investigating the potential of evapotranspiration estimation and modeling, and the possibility of automatically measuring and modeling the isotopic signature of evapotranspiration to decompose the water cycle into its components.

How to cite: Dahlmann, A., Dubbert, D., Schmidt, M., Verch, G., Marshall, J. D., Augustin, J., Hoffmann, M., and Dubbert, M.: Disentangling water flux dynamics on an eroded cropland using an automated chamber system, water stable isotopes, and novel data-driven machine learning approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18042, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18042, 2025.

EGU25-18779 | Orals | HS10.11

Towards an ensemble of RS-based SEB models to constrain the uncertainty in daily ETc monitoring in nut orchards 

Juan Manuel Sánchez, Alejandro Moya, Héctor Nieto, Álvaro Sánchez-Virosta, Joan Miquel Galve, and José González-Piqueras

Woody crops such as almond and pistachio orchards are proliferating very fast in arid and semi-arid agricultural regions. This is the case of the southeastern Spanish region of Castilla-La Mancha, where the shortage of water resources and the low rainfall during the crop growing season under these conditions, makes it necessary to conduct efficient use of irrigation water in order to improve the sustainability of these crops.

A variety of Remote Sensing based (RS-based) surface energy balance (SEB) models have been shown effective to estimate crop evapotranspiration (ETc), and capture water stress conditions, using satellite imagery. Although their performance sometimes depends on the crop type or the environmental conditions. In addition, some limitations remain for an operational and continuous monitoring of daily ETc at a fine spatial and temporal resolution for water management or irrigation scheduling purposes, particularly on nut orchards. A model ensemble might help in overtaking these shortcomings. 

Recent efforts in the framework of the WATERSNUTS project (“remote sensing and digital farming for sustainable water use in almond and pistachio orchards”) have combined computational design with well-stablished SEB approaches into a Python environment to generate daily maps of distributed ETc covering Castilla-La Mancha region, for a selected time period and a predefined spatial resolution, starting with 20 m x 20 m. Up to now, two models, the Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) and Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB), were implemented for testing, and a time series of Landsat 8-9, and Sentinel 2-3 were used as inputs. Whereas METRIC stands on VNIR and TIR data from Landsat series at 30-m pixel size, the implemented version of TSEB adopts a disaggregated Land Surface Temperature (LST) at 20-m spatial resolution, that has already shown good results in previous research applied to the tandem Sentinel-2 (S2)/Sentinel-3 (S3).

The reference evapotranspiration, ETo, plays a key role in this computational framework to fill the daily gaps with no available satellite images. A layer of 5-km gridded observational daily ETo values was provided by the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET). A self-derived crop classification map was used to focus the analysis on the nut orchards and discern between irrigated and rainfed plots, and look into the differences between water regimens.

Before upscaling, a local assessment was conducted in an agricultural area located in Tarazona de La Mancha, Spain (39º 15’ 58’’ N, 1º 56’ 23” W), for the period 2021-2024, using data from two full-equipped eddy-covariance towers installed at the center of an almond and a close by pistachio orchards.

The ensemble results are promising for nut orchards such as almonds or pistachio plantations, since S3-S2 disaggregated LST can help in increasing the frequency of daily ETc estimates through TSEB modeling in reduced size plots, while METRIC can outperform for those days with Landsat overpass. Further integration of additional SEB approaches, or RS-based water balance estimates, would enrich the ensemble, and foster the constrain of the uncertainty in evapotranspiration monitoring in nut orchards.

How to cite: Sánchez, J. M., Moya, A., Nieto, H., Sánchez-Virosta, Á., Galve, J. M., and González-Piqueras, J.: Towards an ensemble of RS-based SEB models to constrain the uncertainty in daily ETc monitoring in nut orchards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18779, 2025.

EGU25-18865 | Orals | HS10.11

Estimating forest-floor litter evaporation from above- and below-canopy flux tower data 

Marius G. Floriancic, Lukas Hörtnagl, Luana Krebs, Liliana Scapucci, Iris Feigenwinter, Ankit Shekhar, and Nina Buchmann

Forests modulate precipitation and evapotranspiration fluxes. One important – yet often overlooked – component in the forest water cycle is the forest-floor litter layer. Organic matter on the forest floor retains significant amounts of annual precipitation (i.e., throughfall), subsequent evaporation from these forest-floor litter layers enhances below-canopy humidity, thereby potentially reducing atmospheric water demand in closed canopy stands. Evaporation fluxes from the forest floor are often attributed to transpiration, because partitioning of evaporation and transpiration is difficult and thus typically has large uncertainties. Here, we hypothesize that current partitioning estimates that do not account for forest-floor evaporation overestimate forest transpiration rates.

Previous measurements at our “WaldLab Forest experimental site” in Zurich and additional litter sampling in ~400 plots across the European Alps showed that needle and broadleaf litter retained up to 18% of annual precipitation or on third of annual evapotranspiration (ET), leading to substantial overestimates of recharge and transpiration in Alpine forest ecosystems. Here, we compare these results with temporally high-resolved water vapor flux data measured above- and below-canopy at the Swiss FluxNet sites Lägeren (CH-Lae; mixed deciduous forest) and Davos (CH-Dav; evergreen coniferous forest). We estimated the potential contribution of litter-layer evaporation to total below-canopy ET, by calculating half-life storage decay in the litter layer. The maximum water retention capacity of the forest-floor litter layer was estimated from soil moisture measurements at 5 cm depth, and the litter-layer retention timescales were estimated from changes in below-canopy ET after precipitation events. Overall, we found that roughly 60% of below-canopy ET at the Lägeren and Davos sites can be attributed to litter-layer evaporation, thereby suggesting overestimation of transpiration in water balance estimates and potential underestimation of tree water use efficiency.

How to cite: Floriancic, M. G., Hörtnagl, L., Krebs, L., Scapucci, L., Feigenwinter, I., Shekhar, A., and Buchmann, N.: Estimating forest-floor litter evaporation from above- and below-canopy flux tower data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18865, 2025.

EGU25-18907 | Posters on site | HS10.11

Uncertainties of drone-based cropland evapotranspiration estimation 

Krisztina Pintér and Zoltán Nagy

Drone surveys were conducted at a cropland at Kartal, Hungary in 2024 to estimate the evapotranspiration (ET) of the area. There is an eddy covariance tower in the cropland since 2017. Between 27 May and 8 August 9 campaigns were carried out with a DJI M300 drone equipped by a Micasense Altum (MA) multispectral and thermal camera. The leaf area index (LAI) was also measured at 7 points in the sunflower canopy supplemented light interception measurements to estimate the leaf angle distribution of the canopy. Canopy cover, surface temperature, and LAI maps were produced from the MA’s reflectance values and the LAI samples in the 7 points using partial least squares (PLSR) regression to serve as inputs of the pyTSEB model. The spatial average of the ET pixels from the footprint area of the corresponding eddy covariance flux were validated against the eddy covariance ET.

The first results of validation showed very weak relation between the measured and modelled data. The relationship improved considerably when the surface temperature maps taken by the MA were corrected according to the surface temperature measured from the eddy tower by an Apogee infrared radiometer.

Further improvement was reached when the LAI maps were modified based on the leaf angle distribution estimated from the light interception measurements.

While the correlation between the measured and modelled ET is statistically significant, the intercept of the regression is a considerable (~100 W m-2). 

How to cite: Pintér, K. and Nagy, Z.: Uncertainties of drone-based cropland evapotranspiration estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18907, 2025.

EGU25-19251 | ECS | Posters on site | HS10.11

METRIC-2S: A Two-Source Model for Enhanced Partitioning of Evapotranspiration in Agricultural Landscapes  

Jamal ElFarkh, Bouchra Ait Hssaine, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

Partitioning evapotranspiration (ET) into soil evaporation (E) and plant transpiration (T) is crucial for accurate water resource management. Traditionally, this has been challenging due to the complexity of the underlying processes. In this study, we develop an approach to enhance the Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model, enabling better partitioning of landscape-scale flux components. Named METRIC-2S, this approach introduces a two-source scheme into the original single-source model, using soil and vegetation temperatures for partitioning. These temperatures are used by METRIC to calculate two ET components, one for soil and another for vegetation, subsequently weighted by fractional vegetation cover (fc) to compute E and T. Soil and vegetation temperatures are estimated using the hourglass method, driven by surface temperature and fc. ET estimates from both the original METRIC and the revised METRIC-2S models are compared and validated against eddy covariance measurements over three agricultural sites: an olive orchard, a wheat field, and a mixed wheat/olive plantation. METRIC-2S demonstrates significant improvements in accuracy relative to the original METRIC model across all three sites, with reductions in RMSE from 141 to 63 W/m2 at the olive site, 102 to 83 W/m2 at the wheat field, and 180 to 78 W/m2 at the mixed site. To evaluate the performance of the partitioning scheme, transpiration estimates were compared with available sap flow measurements at the olive orchard site on selected dates coinciding with a Landsat overpass, yielding an RMSE of approximately 22.3 W/m2. While further verification and assessment of component values are necessary, the results suggest that the METRIC-2S approach strikes a good balance between simplicity and improved accuracy. 

How to cite: ElFarkh, J., Ait Hssaine, B., and Chehbouni, A.: METRIC-2S: A Two-Source Model for Enhanced Partitioning of Evapotranspiration in Agricultural Landscapes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19251, 2025.

HS11 – Short Courses of specific interest to Hydrological Sciences

HS12 – Inter- and transdisciplinary sessions (ITS) related to Hydrological Sciences

EGU25-2634 | Orals | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Comparison of Models for Missing Data Imputation in Environmental Data: A Case Study of PM-2.5 in Seoul 

Ju-Yong Lee, Seung-Hee Han, Kwon Jang, Kyung-Hui Wang, Hui-Young Yun, and Dae-Ryun Choi

PM-2.5 is a critical pollutant for air quality evaluation and public health policymaking, necessitating accurate data for reliable analysis. However, environmental data often contain missing values due to equipment malfunctions or extreme weather conditions, which undermine the credibility of analysis and predictions. In particular, the frequent fluctuations of PM-2.5 levels in Seoul highlight the importance of addressing missing data issues.

This study systematically compares the performance of various missing data imputation methods for PM-2.5 data in Seoul, aiming to identify the optimal approach for medium- and long-term predictions. By generating and evaluating missing data during high- and low-concentration periods, this research differentiates itself from prior studies and enhances practical applicability.

A range of statistical and machine learning-based methods, including FFILL, KNN, MICE, SARIMAX, DNN, and LSTM, were applied to impute missing data. The performance of each method was evaluated over 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour intervals using metrics such as RMSE, MAE, and correlation coefficients. The experimental design incorporated real-world air quality conditions by selecting data from periods of significant PM-2.5 variation.

KNN demonstrated balanced performance across all time intervals and yielded the best results for medium- and long-term predictions. FFILL showed excellent accuracy over short time intervals but exhibited declining performance as the interval length increased. Conversely, deep learning-based models, such as DNN and LSTM, showed relatively poor performance, indicating the need for further optimization to account for the characteristics of time-series data.

This study confirms that KNN is the most suitable method for PM-2.5 missing data imputation due to its simplicity and computational efficiency. These findings enhance the reliability of air quality data analysis and provide a valuable foundation for effective air quality management and policymaking. Furthermore, the results underscore the importance of selecting appropriate imputation methods to improve predictive accuracy and analytical reliability.

"This research was supported by Particulate Matter Management Specialized Graduate Program through the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) funded by the Ministry of Environment(MOE)“

 

How to cite: Lee, J.-Y., Han, S.-H., Jang, K., Wang, K.-H., Yun, H.-Y., and Choi, D.-R.: Comparison of Models for Missing Data Imputation in Environmental Data: A Case Study of PM-2.5 in Seoul, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2634, 2025.

EGU25-5609 | ECS | Orals | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Use of synthetic time series datasets for quality control of meteorological data.  

Jose Araya, Yiannis Proestos, and Jos Lelieveld

With the advent of Machine Learning methods and the development of new techniques in data mining, knowledge representation and data extraction, new possibilities have emerged to address the shortcomings of data imperfection. In this context, there are different methods for producing synthetic time series, which vary across goals and disciplines. In certain situations, it can be challenging to obtain the relevant data required to test assumptions about the skill and performance of machine learning models. Synthetic data generation approaches provide an effective solution by enabling the testing of machine learning algorithms in the absence of real data.

Although data availability is seemingly ubiquitous these days, a paradox arises in situations where bureaucratic, practical, or technical limitations make it difficult for researchers to rely on the required data, particularly when accessing real measurements (e.g., time series data) for specific purposes.

Our preliminary study features a case in operational meteorology where synthetic data proves particularly useful, addressing challenges associated with limited or inaccessible real measurements. Specifically, we investigate the capability of machine learning algorithms to generate high-quality synthetic time series that can be applied in meteorological data processing and analysis. To achieve this, synthetic datasets were developed based on informed criteria that integrate dynamical features of near-surface temperature data, tailored to the unique geographic and environmental context of Cyprus. These criteria include key characteristics such as trends, extreme values, diurnal cycles and vertical temperature gradients, ensuring a realistic and comprehensive representation of near-surface temperature behavior. This approach facilitates the testing and validation of data-driven models in operational settings, providing a robust framework for evaluating their performance under controlled, yet realistic, conditions.

We characterized the general features of these synthetic datasets and evaluated their utility as benchmarks for data quality control purposes. Our findings underscore the potential value of synthetic datasets in operational meteorology, particularly in supporting the development and evaluation of robust, purpose-specific, machine learning algorithms. 

How to cite: Araya, J., Proestos, Y., and Lelieveld, J.: Use of synthetic time series datasets for quality control of meteorological data. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5609, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5609, 2025.

Quantifying the long-term evolution of the water cycle at the basin scale requires the estimation and integration of time series for various hydrological variables, e.g. precipitation, runoff, groundwater, and soil moisture, to name a few. The availability of Earth observation data, along with advancements in computational modelling and the expansion of in situ data networks, has led to a diverse array of products designed to estimate these variables. As a result, selecting the most appropriate products has become a significant challenge. This challenge is further complicated by the fact that estimates for a given variable can vary considerably across different products due to the inherent complexity of the variable or the uncertainties associated with the measurement process.

This study aims to tap into this wealth of products to provide single estimates of the key basin-scale hydrological variables involved in the water mass balance equation dS/dt=P−E−Q, namely precipitation rate (P), discharge (Q), evaporation rate (E) and terrestrial water storage (S), for the period 1990-2023. The approach is two-fold:

  • To start, various products for P, E, and S are selected and pre-processed. The goal of this pre-processing is to address data gaps and extend certain products back to 1990. This is particularly relevant for water storage time series, as they depend on the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions, which was launched in April 2002 and suffer from numerous gaps. To tackle this issue, we jointly process the selected time series using low-rank matrix completion and approximation techniques. The key idea is to exploit the low-rank structure of the time series data matrix to recover the underlying noise- and gap-free matrix. In addition, we analyse the potential benefits of applying this pre-processing to the multi-channel Hankel data matrix in order to take into account the autocorrelation of the signals.
  • The second step combines the pre-processed products by solving a constrained least-squares problem to generate a single estimate for each variable. This approach minimizes water mass balance misclosure while maintaining the non-negativity of discharge (Q≥0) and ensuring that each variable’s final estimate lies within the convex hulls defined by their respective time series products.

We conduct an extensive numerical analysis of the proposed method across 46 basins worldwide, using a selection of five products for precipitation, four for evaporation and four others for terrestrial water storage. Our results demonstrate that a rank-3 or rank-4 matrix strikes a good balance between data fitting and extrapolation, often reducing the average mass balance misclosure. The Hankel structure generally yields more robust and accurate results, although the optimal Hankel parameter and rank are not straightforward to determine and require further investigation. Finally, we validate the merged products by comparing them to independent estimates and assessing improvements in misclosure reduction.

How to cite: Douch, K., Naylor, P., and Saemian, P.: Hydrological data fusion: Joint gap-filling and back reconstruction via low-rank matrix approximation and completion , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6651, 2025.

EGU25-7012 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Addressing Common Inconsistencies in Sewer Networks Data 

Batoul Haydar, Naneé Chahinian, and Claude Pasquier

In sewer networks, adding a new element involves multiple phases, including planning, installation, and ongoing maintenance. At each stage of the element's lifecycle—whether it is a pipe, a structure, or an apparatus—different stakeholders and experts are involved. Due to variations in data practices, maintaining accurate and standardized data becomes a significant challenge. However, managing these networks requires consistent and reliable data to ensure effective decision-making and operational efficiency.

These imperfections can stem from various reasons, including discrepancies in data collection methods, outdated or incomplete documentation, and human errors during data entry. Additionally, the integration of data from diverse sources, such as GIS systems, maintenance reports, and sensor networks, often lead to inconsistencies and redundancies, complicating data processing and analysis.

For large datasets, which are common in sewer networks, it becomes increasingly difficult to identify and address inconsistencies. To address this, we built an Ontology-Based Data Access (OBDA) system which provides a unified semantic view of the data facilitating data access and integration. The system consists of a conceptual layer that provides the controlled vocabulary of sewer networks, a data layer where Montpellier Metropole open data is stored in relational databases, and a mapping layer between the two. Through this framework, common inconsistencies were identified such as missing node connections, duplicate entries, and conflicting attribute values for a specific dataset.

How to cite: Haydar, B., Chahinian, N., and Pasquier, C.: Addressing Common Inconsistencies in Sewer Networks Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7012, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7012, 2025.

EGU25-8379 | ECS | Orals | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Graphs as Tools for Wastewater Network Representation: Benefits and Insights 

Omar Et-targuy, Carole Delenne, Ahlame Begdouri, and Salem Benferhat

Wastewater networks are inherently interconnected systems, yet the Shapefile model commonly used in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) fails to adequately represent their connectivity. This limitation arises from the non-topological nature of Shapefiles model, which store different components—such as manholes, pipes and pumps—in separate databases without preserving their real-world interconnections. Positional imprecision and the lack of explicit topological relationships further aggravate this issue, resulting in a representation that fails to reflect the interconnected nature of the objects. To address this problem, we propose a graph-based representation where network components are modeled as nodes and their connections as edges. This approach captures the true structure of wastewater networks while resolving disconnections and accounting for missing elements through the introduction of dummy nodes. Validation on real-world datasets demonstrates the efficacy of this method in delivering a cohesive and precise representation.

How to cite: Et-targuy, O., Delenne, C., Begdouri, A., and Benferhat, S.: Graphs as Tools for Wastewater Network Representation: Benefits and Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8379, 2025.

EGU25-10892 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Enhancing the Representation of WastewaterNetwork Maps Using Graphs 

Ikram El miqdadi, Fatima Abouzid, Salem Benferhat, Nanée Chahinian, Carole Delenne, Aicha Alami Hassani, Hicham Ghennioui, and Jamal Kharroubi

Abstract—Accurate representation of wastewater networks is critical for effective urban infrastructure management. Extracting these networks from low-quality geographical maps presents significant challenges due to incomplete or ambiguous information. So far, we have developed a method for extracting wastewater network structures from geographical maps and representing them as graphs. This method includes detecting key network elements, such as manholes, their identifiers (using Optical Character Recognition, OCR), and pipelines connecting them. As part of this approach, we developed an efficient algorithm to accurately associate manhole identifiers with their corresponding nodes, achieving acceptable results despite the low quality of image maps. To address the issue of isolated nodes caused by undetected components, we introduced weighted edges in the graph to quantify the likelihood of connections between nodes. This enhancement improved the representation of incomplete graphs. Our current research focuses on two key challenges: creating more complete and reliable graph representations of wastewater networks and detecting arrows that represent the direction of wastewater flow.
Index Terms—Wastewater networks, Graphs, Object detection, Geographical Maps.


*Ikram El Miqdadi and Fatima Abouzid contributed equally to this work.


ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research has received support from the European Union’s Horizon research and innovation program under the MSCA (Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions)-SE (Staff Exchanges) grant agreement 101086252; Call: HORIZON- MSCA-2021-SE-01, Project title: STARWARS (STormwAteR and WastewAteR networkS heterogeneous data AI-driven management). We would like to express our gratitude to ”Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole” and ”La  régie des eaux de Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole” for having provided us with data essential to this research.

How to cite: El miqdadi, I., Abouzid, F., Benferhat, S., Chahinian, N., Delenne, C., Alami Hassani, A., Ghennioui, H., and Kharroubi, J.: Enhancing the Representation of WastewaterNetwork Maps Using Graphs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10892, 2025.

EGU25-12477 | ECS | Orals | ITS1.12/HS12.1

A Novel Hybrid Approach for Missing PM2.5 Data Imputation Using Optuna-Optimized Extreme Gradient Boosting 

Muhammed Denizoğlu, İsmail Sezen, Ali Deniz, and Alper Ünal

Conducting accurate air quality measurements is of critical importance for sustaining environmental and public health; however, gaps due to various reasons in respective datasets often undermine the reliability of subsequent processes.This study, therefore, aims at presenting a novel hybrid methodology that leverages the Optuna framework to optimize the hyperparameters of the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model for imputing missing data within one of the most significant indicators of air quality, namely PM2.5 data. The proposed approach was systematically evaluated under varying data loss scenarios, using synthetic datasets generated under the Missing Completely at Random (MCAR) mechanism with missing rates of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30%. Traditional interpolation methods (such as linear and spline) and widely adopted machine learning techniques (i.e., random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines) were also utilized to not only benchmarking but also ensuring a comparative environment. In this sense, three experimental configurations were examined: (1) imputation based solely on the PM2.5 time series, (2) integration of ERA5 reanalysis covariates and (3) inclusion of data from neighboring monitoring stations. The results indicate that the XGBoost-Optuna model outperformed its counterparts across all missing data scenarios, with R2 values of 0.852, 0.874, 0.862, and 0.866 for missing rates of 5%, 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively. These findings highlight the potential of the XGBoost-Optuna model as a robust tool for handling missing air quality data, ensuring enhanced accuracy across varying data gaps and scenarios.

How to cite: Denizoğlu, M., Sezen, İ., Deniz, A., and Ünal, A.: A Novel Hybrid Approach for Missing PM2.5 Data Imputation Using Optuna-Optimized Extreme Gradient Boosting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12477, 2025.

EGU25-14054 | ECS | Orals | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Geologically Constrained CTGAN for Reliable Prediction of Tunnel Overbreak and Blasting Variables 

Yulin Xu, Naru Sato, Yoko Ohtomo, and Youhei Kawamura

Acquiring sufficient and reliable data for tunnel construction is challenging due to high costs, data scarcity, and the site-specific nature of geological conditions. This study introduces a Geologically Constrained Conditional Tabular GAN (CTGAN) framework to address these challenges by generating synthetic data that accurately reflects the geological characteristics of tunnels. Traditional approaches often overlook inherent geological variability, leading to synthetic data that lacks real-world relevance, particularly in industrial scenarios where each tunnel or its sections exhibit unique geological environments.

The proposed framework incorporates geological attributes defined by tunneling standards, including Face condition, Compressive strength, Weathering, and Crack/fissure characteristics. These attributes are categorized into levels that represent distinct geological states while maintaining consistency with practical engineering scenarios. A physical constraint module ensures logical relationships among these features, preserving the geological and physical validity of the generated data.

Designed for industrial applications, this approach enables the augmentation of limited real-world data with samples tailored to the geological characteristics of specific tunnels. It addresses data scarcity while avoiding the generation of artificially balanced samples, instead ensuring alignment with naturally occurring geological conditions. Initial results demonstrate that the constrained CTGAN effectively replicates field-observed patterns, providing a valuable tool for improving data-driven methodologies in tunnel construction and monitoring. This research highlights the importance of leveraging domain-specific constraints in generative models, contributing to reliable, context-aware data generation for geotechnical engineering applications.

How to cite: Xu, Y., Sato, N., Ohtomo, Y., and Kawamura, Y.: Geologically Constrained CTGAN for Reliable Prediction of Tunnel Overbreak and Blasting Variables, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14054, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14054, 2025.

EGU25-16541 | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1 | Highlight

AI-Driven Analysis of Heterogeneous Wastewater Network Data 

Salem Benferhat, Nanee Chahinian, and Carole Delenne
This presentation explores the analysis of heterogeneous geospatial data from various sources through the application of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. Wastewater networks are used as a case study to address challenges such as data completion, multi-source integration, and managing diverse data formats, including Geographic Information Systems (GIS), analog maps, and pipe inspection videos, all derived from real-world data. We will review some solutions developed under the European project Starwars (STormwAteR and WastewAteR networkS heterogeneous data AI-driven management). These solutions are based on innovative models and tools that employ logical and graph-based representations of heterogeneous data. Specifically, we aim to represent different data types — such as GIS, ITV inspection videos, and maps — as annotated graphs, incorporating the uncertainty stemming from incomplete or inconsistent information.

How to cite: Benferhat, S., Chahinian, N., and Delenne, C.: AI-Driven Analysis of Heterogeneous Wastewater Network Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16541, 2025.

EGU25-18759 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Data Imperfections in Environmental Epidemiology: A Case Study from Ecuadorian Amazon 

Mahmoud Hashoush and Emmanuelle Cadot

The effective utilization of data in research is often hindered by inherent challenges, including inconsistency, imprecision, missing information, and redundancy. Data imperfections are a ubiquitous challenge in scientific research, and environmental epidemiology is no exception. Environmental epidemiology relies heavily on the presence of high-quality data to establish robust associations between environmental exposures and health outcomes. This work will explore common data imperfections encountered in environmental epidemiology research, focusing on their impact on research findings and presenting strategies for mitigation. Examples from an ongoing project in the Ecuadorian Amazon will be used to illustrate these challenges and solutions. This study aims at investigating links between environmental exposure to gold mining and adverse birth outcomes in communities living in Ecuadorian Amazon. The present study underscores the substantial ramifications of outcome data imperfections, encompassing imprecision, inconsistency over time, and the existence of missing values. It also addresses exposure data imperfection, which may arise from its unavailability and the challenges associated with its detection, particularly when it comes to illegal mining. Moreover, we will discuss the challenges of integrating these two types of data and the measures that can be taken to mitigate the adverse effects of these shortcomings. We will present our findings and explore potential strategies for addressing these limitations, such as the use of remote sensing and spatial analysis tools. This research emphasizes the critical need for robust data collection and analysis methods to accurately assess environmental health risks and inform effective public health interventions.

How to cite: Hashoush, M. and Cadot, E.: Data Imperfections in Environmental Epidemiology: A Case Study from Ecuadorian Amazon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18759, 2025.

EGU25-18833 | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Titre Predicting Changes in Sewer Pipeline Size from Inspection Videos Using Time Series Models 

Ti-Hon Nguyen, Carole Delenne, and Minh Thu Tran Nguyen
This presentation addresses the problem of predicting changes in sewer pipeline size from inspection videos. We specifically focus on inspection television (ITV) videos of wastewater pipes, which play a crucial role in the management and maintenance of urban networks. On one hand, they help identify anomalies that may affect the pipes, such as obstructions or degradations. On the other hand, they provide essential information about the structural properties of the pipes and networks, including their diameter and the direction of wastewater flow. We propose a classification algorithm for ITV videos, with a particular focus on detecting diameter changes within the pipes. This task is essential for predictive maintenance and hydraulic modeling of wastewater networks. We build on Video Vision Transformer (ViViT)-based methodologies for video classification, which allow for the effective capture of both spatial and temporal relationships between the different images or frames in the video data. We specifically describe different mechanisms for generating training datasets from a subset of manually annotated images. The experimental study shows promising results on real-world ITV video data.

How to cite: Nguyen, T.-H., Delenne, C., and Tran Nguyen, M. T.: Titre Predicting Changes in Sewer Pipeline Size from Inspection Videos Using Time Series Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18833, 2025.

EGU25-19119 | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Exploiting Video Inspection Data in Wastewater Networks 

Salem Benferhat, Minh Thu Tran Nguyen, Nanee Chahinian, Carole Delenne, Neda Mashhadi, and Thanh-Nghi Do
In this presentation, we introduce an algorithm for extracting the structure of a wastewater network from a set of sewer inspection videos. This structure is represented as a directed graph of the pipes, automatically constructed from annotations present in the sewer videos. These annotations contain summary information about the inspection process. They include manhole identifiers, direction of inspection, direction of wastewater flow, distance travelled, date of inspection, name of the street where the pipe is located, etc. This graph, where the nodes represent manholes and the directed arcs represent pipes and wastewater flow, will provide valuable data to complement and compare with existing Geographic Information Systems. However, its construction is challenging due to the variable visibility of text in inspection videos, influenced by background brightness and irregular annotation positioning. By leveraging recurring annotations across multiple frames and using fusion strategies as well as regular expressions, we achieve reliable detection of key information such as street names and manhole identifiers, confirmed by experimental results on real wastewater inspection videos.

How to cite: Benferhat, S., Tran Nguyen, M. T., Chahinian, N., Delenne, C., Mashhadi, N., and Do, T.-N.: Exploiting Video Inspection Data in Wastewater Networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19119, 2025.

EGU25-21637 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS1.12/HS12.1

Geospatial uncertainties: a focus on intervals and spatial models based on inverse distance weightin 

Priscillia Labourg, Sébastien Desterck, Romain Guillaume, Jeremy Rohmer, Benjamin Quost, and Stéphane Belbèze

Processing geospatial data requires to manage many sources of uncertainties; some appear in classical inference problems, some others are specific to this setting. The goal of this work is to study the management of these uncertainties via standard intervals and sets when the inference model considered relies on inverse distance weighting as it is with ordinary kriging the most used method of interpolation. We provide a general discussion with examples, together with a study of the associated optimisation problems induced by different sources of uncertainty. We conclude by an illustration on a semi-synthetic use case, generated according to data recorded via real studies.

How to cite: Labourg, P., Desterck, S., Guillaume, R., Rohmer, J., Quost, B., and Belbèze, S.: Geospatial uncertainties: a focus on intervals and spatial models based on inverse distance weightin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21637, 2025.

Understanding how hydrological conditions influence public sentiment toward climate and environmental issues is essential for effective policy-making and communication strategies. This study adopts a co-creation approach by integrating hydrological data with insights from social media, engaging multiple stakeholders in the process of knowledge generation. Utilizing a multi-year dataset, we analyze daily weather parameters—specifically focusing on temperature and precipitation—alongside social media comments pertaining to environmental discussions.

Sentiment analysis methods, including both VADER and transformer-based machine learning models, are employed to identify and quantify negative sentiments within these comments. Additionally, time series analysis techniques such as Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS) decomposition and LSTM neural networks are applied to forecast climatic conditions and assess their impact on sentiment patterns over time. This allows us to examine how adverse hydrological conditions, such as increased precipitation or extreme weather events, heighten negative public sentiment regarding climate issues.

Sentiment analysis methods are employed to identify and quantify negative sentiments within these comments, allowing us to examine patterns over time. By incorporating public perceptions expressed on social media, we co-create a more comprehensive understanding of how hydrological phenomena impact society.

Preliminary results indicate a significant association between adverse hydrological conditions, such as increased precipitation or extreme weather events, and heightened negative public sentiment regarding climate issues. By exploring this relationship, we aim to uncover how changes in weather impact public perceptions and attitudes toward the environment, facilitating mutual learning between scientists and the public.

This research bridges hydrological sciences and social media analytics, contributing to an interdisciplinary and participatory understanding of the societal impacts of hydrological phenomena. The insights gained will inform policymakers and stakeholders, aiding in the co-development of proactive communication strategies and interventions that address public concerns related to climate and weather. Through this collaborative approach, we demonstrate how integrating diverse knowledge systems can enhance water resources management and environmental decision-making.

Keywords: Hydrology, Public Sentiment, Climate Change, Social Media Analysis, Environmental Communication

Presentation: 2024 - Water and Surrounding Sentiment: Evidence from Andros for Greece Summer Symposium,
Greece-Qatar, https://arcg.is/11afjP 

How to cite: Kaziyev, U. and Hakimdavar, R.: Analyzing Public Response to Hydrological Stress through Machine Learning and Social Media Sentiment: Evidence from Andros, Faroe, Mauritius and Samoa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-89, 2025.

EGU25-1569 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Co-designing Next-Generation Water Monitoring System for Sustainable Water Management in Kashkadarya, Uzbekistan 

Muhammad Khalifa, Zafar Gafurov, Uktam Adkhamov, Botirjon Abdurahmanov, Shavkat Kenjabaev, and Maha Al-Zu’bi

Kashkadarya Province in Uzbekistan faces persistent water management challenges, including accelerating water scarcity, unstandardized and inefficient water reporting, climate change impact, transboundary complexities, and outdated irrigation systems. Traditional water monitoring methods fall short of providing the integrated insights required for effective decision-making. To address these challenges, we launched a participatory co-design initiative to conceptualize a next-generation water monitoring tool tailored to the province’s unique needs.  This study employs participatory methodologies to engage a diverse range of stakeholders - water managers, policymakers, and technical experts- in the tool’s design process. The approach began with stakeholder mapping and needs assessment surveys to identify critical gaps and set priorities in water management practices. Iterative discussions during a consultative workshop and focus group sessions informed the development of a conceptual framework for the tool. Key functionalities identified include enhanced water monitoring, improved allocation mechanisms, drought monitoring, and early warning systems, all leveraging data integration, interactive dashboards, and cloud-based predictive analytics. The co-design approach fosters mutual understanding and collaboration between stakeholders and researchers, emphasizing usability, accessibility, and scalability.  By actively involving stakeholders, the process has strengthened ownership, institutional coordination, and capacity building, even in the prototype design phase. This initiative underscores the transformative potential of inclusive, co-creation-driven solutions to address water management challenges in drylands, moving from fragility to resilience. The Kashkadarya case serves as a model for innovative and context-specific socio-hydrological solutions, with implications for addressing similar challenges in drylands globally.

How to cite: Khalifa, M., Gafurov, Z., Adkhamov, U., Abdurahmanov, B., Kenjabaev, S., and Al-Zu’bi, M.: Co-designing Next-Generation Water Monitoring System for Sustainable Water Management in Kashkadarya, Uzbekistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1569, 2025.

To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the marine industry and mitigate global warming, ammonia is being considered as a premising alternative to traditional fossil fuels. As one of the world’s busiest ports, Singapore is actively exploring ammonia bunkering as part of its decarbonization strategy. However, before initiating ammonia bunkering operations, an environmental impact assessment (EIA) addressing potential ammonia leakage is crucial.

This study employs a coupled eutrophication model with nine biogeochemical variables integrated into a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of Singapore’s coastal waters to evaluate the potential marine environmental impacts of ammonia releases during bunkering. This model is calibrated using hourly sea surface level data from Tanjong Pagar and dissolved oxygen measurements from Kusu Island, demonstrating robust performance in simulating diurnal variations in biogeochemical variables and the tidal dynamics, with a horizontal resolution ranging from 60 to 300 meters and a temporal resolution of 3 minutes.

Using coral and fish as key receptors in the Singapore Strait, ammonia concentration thresholds for 50% lethality within 48 hours (LC50) were from the literature: 0.057 mg N/L for coral (LC50Coral) and 2.1 mg N/L for fish (LC50fish). Sensitivity experiments were conducted to evaluate the spatial extent and duration of ammonia toxicity under different scenarios, varying release locations, flow rates, timings. Results indicate that ammonia dispersion near jetties is slower due to weaker currents and structural obstructions, resulting in localized impacts on coral that can persist for one to several days, depending on release volume. Conversely, in deep water areas with stronger currents and obvious tidal influence, ammonia disperses more rapidly, with coral toxicity effects lasting only a few hours. Furthermore, the magnitude of toxicity increases with higher release volumes, and release time significantly influences the plume’s direction, affected area, and duration, thereby altering its impact on marine life. The study also examines changes in nitrate concentrations and the potential for eutrophication associated with ammonia release. These findings provide critical insights into the environmental risks of ammonia bunkering in the Singapore Strait and inform mitigation strategies to minimize ecological impacts.

 

How to cite: Wang, Z., Tkalich, P., Mengli, C., and Christy, E.: Potential Marine Environmental Impacts of Ammonia Releases during Bunkering: A Simulation Analysis Using a Coupled Eutrophication and Hydrodynamic Model in the Singapore Strait, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1869, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1869, 2025.

EGU25-4586 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Methodological Proposal for Participatory Water Monitoring in Andean-Amazon Basins: The case of Mulato River, Colombia. 

David Román-Chaverra, Claudia-Patricia Romero-Hernández, and Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri

This research proposes a new methodology for participatory water monitoring in Andean-Amazonian watersheds, taking as a case study the Mulato river basin, Colombia. The main objective is to develop an approach that strengthens sustainable water management and the resilience of local communities to the challenges of climate change.

The proposal establishes a participatory process that actively involves local communities, with emphasis on the inclusion of women and minority groups, in the design and implementation of a water monitoring system. This system will integrate water quality and quantity indicators, as well as traditional knowledge and the specific needs of the watershed.

Through the development of this methodology, we seek to strengthen territorial appropriation through community training strategies in water data collection and analysis techniques. It also promotes the active participation of communities in decision-making related to water resource management.

It is expected that the results of this research will contribute to the development of innovative tools and strategies for a more sustainable management of water resources in the Andean-Amazon region, strengthening the resilience of communities to the impact of climate change.

Key words: Participatory water monitoring, Andean-Amazon basin, gender, equity, local communities, climate change, water management.

How to cite: Román-Chaverra, D., Romero-Hernández, C.-P., and Rodrigo-Ilarri, J.: Methodological Proposal for Participatory Water Monitoring in Andean-Amazon Basins: The case of Mulato River, Colombia., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4586, 2025.

EGU25-5868 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Co-Creating a Safe Operating Space Framework for Water Resources: Insights from the Danube Basin case study 

Silvia Artuso, Emilio Politti, Katarina Cetinic, Peter Burek, Sylvia Tramberend, Mikhail Smilovic, and Taher Kahil

Significant increases in water withdrawals over the past century have driven severe environmental challenges worldwide, including water scarcity, declining water quality, and the loss of freshwater biodiversity. These challenges are projected to intensify due to climate and societal changes in the coming decades. To address these issues, it is critical to define a Safe Operating Space (SOS) for water resources that ensures a sustainable and adequate water supply, meeting quality standards for both human needs and natural ecosystems.

Building on the Planetary Boundaries framework, the concept of Safe Operating Space (SOS) has emerged in the last decades to assess sustainable resource use within the Earth’s carrying capacity while maintaining human well-being. Within the Horizon Europe SOS-Water project, we are working to define the SOS for the entire water resources using in an integrated approach incorporating modelling, monitoring, development of advanced indicators and inclusive stakeholder engagement based on true collaboration. SOS-Water works with stakeholders in four case studies in Europe and overseas (Danube, Rhine, Jucar and Mekong basins) to co-create future scenarios and management pathways.

The results of SOS-Water will improve knowledge of water resource availability and improve water planning and management at local, regional and global levels. This will ensure equitable water distribution across societies, economies, and ecosystems, fostering resilience, social equity, and economic efficiency.

This proposed talk will showcase the application of the SOS-Water framework to the Danube Basin, with a focus on its inclusive and iterative participatory approach which actively engages stakeholders in co-defining visions, water values, and management options. We will present insights from the first stakeholder workshop, showcasing how these contributions shaped the preliminary SOS framework for the basin. Additionally, we will outline how this co-creation process will continue to define adaptation pathways and guide sustainable water management practices to address critical water challenges in the Danube Basin.

How to cite: Artuso, S., Politti, E., Cetinic, K., Burek, P., Tramberend, S., Smilovic, M., and Kahil, T.: Co-Creating a Safe Operating Space Framework for Water Resources: Insights from the Danube Basin case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5868, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5868, 2025.

EGU25-6008 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Integrating Field Data, Remote Sensing, and Machine Learning for Enhanced Soil Moisture Prediction in Semi-Arid West Africa 

Meron Lakew Tefera, Ethiopia B. Zeleke, Mario Pirastru, Assefa M. Melesse, Giovanna Seddaiu, and Hassan Awada

Soil moisture plays a pivotal role in driving hydrological, ecological, and agricultural processes. Yet, its accurate estimation remains a significant challenge, particularly in data-scarce and semi-arid regions of West Africa. This study presents a comprehensive approach that integrates field measurements, high-resolution remote sensing data, and advanced machine learning techniques to enhance soil moisture prediction in small-scale agricultural systems. By combining innovative downscaling methods with deep learning models, the proposed framework effectively captures both the spatial heterogeneity of soil moisture and its complex temporal dynamics, addressing a critical gap in existing methodologies. The predictive framework demonstrated outstanding performance, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.854, reducing root mean square error (RMSE) by 33%, and exhibiting negligible bias when compared to conventional approaches. These metrics highlight its capability to provide more accurate and reliable predictions, even in the context of limited ground-based observations. Moreover, the study underscores the significant impact of soil conservation practices, such as stone bunds, on enhancing soil moisture retention. The analysis revealed that these interventions are particularly effective on steep slopes and in areas with lower moisture accumulation potential, offering valuable insights for sustainable land and water resource management. By bridging the gap between coarse-resolution satellite observations and the fine-scale data needs of localized agricultural systems, this study delivers a scalable and adaptable solution for soil moisture monitoring. The integration of cutting-edge technologies with on-the-ground insights not only enhances predictive accuracy but also provides a robust framework for improving agricultural resilience and water management in semi-arid environments. These findings emphasize the transformative potential of leveraging modern tools and multidisciplinary approaches to address pressing challenges in soil moisture estimation and agricultural sustainability, paving the way for more informed decision-making in vulnerable regions.

How to cite: Tefera, M. L., Zeleke, E. B., Pirastru, M., Melesse, A. M., Seddaiu, G., and Awada, H.: Integrating Field Data, Remote Sensing, and Machine Learning for Enhanced Soil Moisture Prediction in Semi-Arid West Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6008, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6008, 2025.

EGU25-7182 | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2 | Highlight

Collaborative explorative scenario-development as an initiator of transformative thinking: challenges and opportunities 

Britta Höllermann, Joshua Ntajal, Adrian Almoradie, and Mariele Evers

In Ghana, the metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi, along with rural regions in the White Volta catchment, are increasingly affected by river and heavy rain flooding. The interplay between climate extremes, urbanization, and land use planning presents a complex challenge for various stakeholders including policy-makers, water resource managers, disaster managers, local community leaders, and residents of flood-prone areas. These groups must navigate this array of pressures to reduce the risk from flooding while also sustaining livelihoods.

However, the policies and measures implemented to adapt to these conditions can have varied impacts, potentially triggering feedback loops that may foster shifting of vulnerabilities, rebounding vulnerabilities and/or eroding sustainable development. This situation highlights the need for a transformative approach in managing flood risks.

This presentation discusses the potential and limitation of collaborative explorative scenario-development as a method to stimulate transformative thinking among stakeholders. It examines the effectiveness of this approach in shifting focus from project-based efforts to more transformative actions, while also accommodating the unique needs of different communities and stakeholder groups.

How to cite: Höllermann, B., Ntajal, J., Almoradie, A., and Evers, M.: Collaborative explorative scenario-development as an initiator of transformative thinking: challenges and opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7182, 2025.

EGU25-11823 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Interview based mixed-method characterization of drought impacts: Case study in North-Western Italy 

Emanuele Mombrini, Benedetta Rivella, Alberto Viglione, and Stefania Tamea

Drought stress on local and regional water systems is of increasing concern to authorities, especially in the wake of severe drought periods since the start of the century. This is particularly true in North-Western Italy, which faced previously unprecedented drought impacts, including the need for provisioning local water systems via tanker trucks, from the end of 2021 through 2023. The need for developing responses to such emerging issues calls for the gathering of all available knowledge regarding previous drought events to make conscious and informed choices in the future. In particular, much knowledge can be gained by studying how professionals in the water sector addressed previous water stress conditions, which impacts they faced and how well such impacts can be represented through the study of already available meteoclimatic data. Furthermore, understanding how water providers characterise the multidimensional and systemic condition of drought can shed light on how and why certain responses are taken, and help in the co-development of useful strategies. The study presents an application of a mixed-method approach, conducted through semi-structured interviews to employees of water-providing firms in the Cuneo Province, Piedmont. The method aims at obtaining both quantitative and qualitative data on drought impacts, as well as qualitative data on the interviewees and their perception of the drought phenomena, bridging the gap between the data-driven representation and the embedded experience of drought conditions. 

How to cite: Mombrini, E., Rivella, B., Viglione, A., and Tamea, S.: Interview based mixed-method characterization of drought impacts: Case study in North-Western Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11823, 2025.

A graphical cost-effectiveness tool has been developed to communicate flood-mitigation plans and measures to decision-makers. In its simplest form, the tool is based on flood hydrograph and water level data at a critical location along a river stretch, for a design flood expressed in terms of its return period. A three-panel graph is made with water-level data in quadrant three, a rating curve in quadrant two and a hydrograph in quadrant one, sharing axes with the adjacent quadrant(s). After establishing a water-level threshold of flooding, a discharge-threshold follows. The discharge over time above that threshold defines the flood-excess volume to be mitigated to avoid flood damage. Expressed as a square lake of 2m depth and 100m’s or 1000m’s side length, the fraction of each flood-mitigation method is overlayed on this square-lake chart, plus its costs, costs per percentage and total costs. Choices can be made by comparing square-lake graphs for each mitigation scenario [1]. Where possible, more complicated cost-effectiveness assessments can be based on ensemble simulations of flood forecasts with various flood-mitigation measures, and made by including uncertainties.

Info-gap theory [2] will be applied in an idealised Haigh Beck case study, a stream of ~2000m length and ~100m decline that flows into the River Aire (UK). The beck has caused floods with combined-sewer overflows during severe rainfall, in a neighbourhood near the beck’s mouth and upstream of the Leeds-Liverpool canal, flooding several apartments (e.g., on May 6th, 2024). Proposed mitigation measures are inflow into canal C1, an upstream bund B2 and flood-plain storage FP3, combined into cost-competitive mitigation scenarios C1 and a B2-FP3 combination [3]. Challenging is that crucial pieces of information, on costs and risks (of failure), are missing for informed decision-making, either because organisations refuse to provide the information, the data are lost or do not exist. Info-gap theory will be used to deal with these true or Knightian uncertainties. An info-gap is the gap between what one knows and what one needs to know for reliable decision-making. Info-gap theory aims to quantify decisions with a high robustness, concerning decisions on flood-mitigation scenarios that satisfy performance requirements over a range of unanticipated eventualities. In this study, it is comprised of (a) a cost model, (b) a performance criterion (costs below a threshold) and (c) model uncertainty intervals. Furthermore, costs of scenario B2-FP3 are known, but the value of co-benefits for scenario C1 are unknown while its base costs are somewhat known. This use of info-gap theory to facilitate cost-effectiveness decisions is novel and practical. Alternatively, the unknown uncertainty (pertaining to (c)) in the flood-excess volume can be used as decision support, a type of application of info-gap theory found in, e.g., [4].

[1] Bokhove, Kelmanson, Kent, Piton, Tacnet 2020: Water 12(3), 652. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030652
[2] Marchau, Walker, Bloemen, Popper 2019: Decision making under deep uncertainty. Chapters 1, 5 and 10 (e.g. by Y. Ben-Haim) on info-gap theory. Springer. 405 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2
[3] Knotters, Bokhove, Lamb, Poortvliet 2024: Cambridge Prisms: Water 2, e6. https://doi.org/10.1017/wat.2024.4
[4] Hine, Hall 2010: Water Resources Research 46. W01514. https://doi:10.1029/2008WR007620

How to cite: Bokhove, O.: Info-gap assessment of cost-effectiveness for flood-mitigation scenarios: Haigh Beck case study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12211, 2025.

EGU25-12376 | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Bridging knowledge systems in the Amazon through co-creation for resilient water management 

Rodolfo Nóbrega, Sabina Ribeiro, Amy Penfield, Shirley Famelli, Rayanne Costa, Magali Nehemy, Evan Bowness, Ulisses Bezerra, Sabrina Oliveira, Carlos Galvao, Aldrin Perez-Marin, and John Cunha

The Amazon rainforest stands at the forefront of socio-ecohydrological challenges, with ever-growing extreme events such as droughts and floods disrupting ecosystems and local communities. Addressing these issues requires co-creative and transdisciplinary approaches that blend scientific knowledge with the lived experiences and expertise of diverse stakeholders. Here, we present three distinct co-creation initiatives in the Amazon, each at a different stage of development, to illustrate the transformative potential, complexities and opportunities of participatory water resources management. First, the PAB-Brasil 2024 (Brazilian Action Plan for Combating Desertification and Mitigating Drought) demonstrates the importance of multi-level co-creation in policy-making. This initiative employed a decentralised and inclusive participatory methodology, with regional seminars designed as spaces for dialogue and collaborative knowledge production. Drawing from popular education principles inspired by Paulo Freire’s critical pedagogy, the seminars in this project integrated traditional knowledge from Indigenous, Quilombola, i.e. descendants of Africans who resisted enslavement and established autonomous communities, and rural communities with scientific expertise. The process involved structured group dynamics, thematic discussions, and collective drafting of policy recommendations aimed at addressing land degradation and safeguarding water resources. The outcomes contribute to a national strategy that reflects regional needs and aligns with global frameworks such as the UN Convention to Combat Desertification. Secondly, The 3R Project, now in its implementation phase, addresses land-use pressures within the Chico Mendes Extractive Reserve in the state of Acre, Brazil, where deforestation and unregulated cattle ranching compromise water access. The methodological approach combines stakeholder interviews, spatial mapping, and policy analysis to understand the socio-political drivers of water scarcity. The project’s participatory framework prioritises local stakeholder voices, proposing the use of actor-centred workshops to collaboratively design land management solutions that mitigate water scarcity while fostering sustainable livelihoods. The initiative also builds on long-standing community relationships, ensuring that legal, social, and cultural perspectives inform the strategies. Finally, the T-SECA Project (Transdisciplinary Social Ecohydrology for Community Adaptation), in its design development phase, exemplifies a community-led research approach. Centred in the Mundurukú Indigenous territory in Pará, this initiative aims to use participatory visual social science methods such as photovoice and videovoice to capture local narratives of changes in water dynamics in the environment. In this project, community members will co-direct research priorities by documenting their lived experiences of floods and droughts through visual media. The team integrates these insights with scientific ecohydrological data, such as precipitation, streamflow, and groundwater levels, supplemented by isotope tracing to understand water sources and flows. The goal is to co-develop adaptation plans tailored to the community's needs, with outputs intended to support large-scale implementation. These three initiatives reaffirm the need for iterative, inclusive, and place-based co-creation processes in hydrology and water management. By prioritising mutual learning and power-sharing among scientists, policymakers, and local stakeholders, these initiatives aim to promote actionable solutions that are both scientifically robust and socially grounded. This presentation invites discussion on how co-creation can be scaled and diversified in hydrological sciences to address complex water challenges across diverse socio-ecological contexts.

How to cite: Nóbrega, R., Ribeiro, S., Penfield, A., Famelli, S., Costa, R., Nehemy, M., Bowness, E., Bezerra, U., Oliveira, S., Galvao, C., Perez-Marin, A., and Cunha, J.: Bridging knowledge systems in the Amazon through co-creation for resilient water management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12376, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12376, 2025.

Floods are recurring natural disasters in the province of Quebec, with recent major events in the springs of 2017, 2019, and 2023, when snowmelt and heavy rainfall converged. These events not only caused significant property damage and population displacement but also posed serious risks to public health, especially in areas where drinking water is sourced from private wells that may be vulnerable to contamination. Critical risk factors include the proximity of wells to rivers, the presence of contaminants in floodwaters, and surface pollutants on flood-prone lands, which can infiltrate drinking water sources during floods. This interdisciplinary project evaluates the spatial risk of potable water contamination and consumption in the Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury region, QC, through a combined approach involving natural and social sciences.
The natural science component involves assessing the water quality of residential wells during baseline and flood periods, and conducting spatio-temporal analyses to: 1) identify factors influencing contamination risk; 2) assess duration of contamination post-flood; and 3) determine the lateral extent of contamination. To do so, water samples collected over 15 field campaigns were analyzed for a variety of geochemical, isotopic and microbiological parameters. Although the chemical quality of well water was generally acceptable, microbiological contamination (e.g., total coliforms and E. coli) frequently exceeded safety thresholds.
The social dimension of the project explores: 1) riverside residents' risk perception in relation to their well water quality during floods; 2) their water consumption practices during floods; and 3) the views of various stakeholders (riverside residents, municipality, regional water agencies) regarding roles, responsibilities and approaches to promote safe water consumption. This was achieved through semi-directed interviews conducted with seven residents participating in the well sampling campaigns, and three organization representatives.
The results of this study aim to strengthen the resilience of flood-prone communities by integrating scientific data, local knowledge and community feedback to develop practical recommendations to reduce the contamination risks and promote safe water use during flood events. The results will be shared through workshops organized with residents and the municipality of Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury, as well as local water organizations. Results will also be shared with the Quebec Department of Environment to provide feedback on adequacy of the current government guidelines regarding well water consumption during floods.
Keywords: Floods, human health, contamination, interdisciplinary, social, drinking water, groundwater, community, spatial assessment, risks.

How to cite: Ben Arous, Y., Bordeleau, G., Lavoie, R., and Roy-Michel, C.: Potential contamination of drinking water in private wells during floods in southern Quebec, Canada: an integration of water geochemistry, risk perception and behavioural changes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14121, 2025.

EGU25-14154 | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Representing people’s behavior during floods for simulation of human-floods feedbacks through agent based modelling 

Oscar Link, Vicente Saenger, Jorge Hurtado-Pidal, and Rocío Coloma

Representing people’s behavior during floods in agent based modelling is a challenging task for a realistic simulation of human-floods feedbacks. Previous research identified different long-term feedbacks that may lead to complex phenomena such as the so-called coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, poverty traps, and status quo effect. In this work, we develop a methodology based on results from survey analysis to specify behavioral rules for capturing long-term feedbacks between humans and floods with agent based models. As a conceptual framework, we use the typology of flood behavior composed by the four categories: levee effect, learning effect, status quo, and good students effect, which depend on the frequency and magnitude of floods, as well as on the adaption and resilience of the people. The survey was conducted during 2024 in five regions of Chile, with 1007 respondents. A study case considering three localities along the Carampangue river, in the Central part of Chile, is presented. An agent based model of the study case is developed, considering the period 1970-2020. Results illustrate the capabilities of agent based models to capture human-floods feedbacks.

How to cite: Link, O., Saenger, V., Hurtado-Pidal, J., and Coloma, R.: Representing people’s behavior during floods for simulation of human-floods feedbacks through agent based modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14154, 2025.

Freshwater is a critical resource, which is also the reason for why water have been altered by humans for centuries. During the last decades due to population growth, socio-economic development and climate-related effects the societal challenges related to water have amplified. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are often highlighted as a key response to these challenges. However, according to Seddon et al., (2020), a major challenge with nature-based solutions is “inflexible and highly sectorized forms of governance”, which is why the cross sectoral Water Councils, voluntary and participatory organisations bringing together a range of stakeholders at the water-shed level regulated under the EU Water Framework Directive, potentially have a unique position to overcome the challenges. While NbS are identified as solutions for the interconnected social, economic and environmental challenges, literature points towards the approach taken (O’Brien et al., 2022).  


This is a case study which develop, facilitate and assess a dialogue process of co-creation of a new water management plan in Kävlinge Water Council between 2023-2025 related to NbS-challenges. The study aims to analyse the transformational changes throughout the dialogues. Kävlinge Water Council is situated in the south of Sweden, a heavily cultivated area largely affected by the wetland drainage in the 19th century. This water council is also a pioneer in implementing NbS. However, during the last decade, water availability has fluctuated in the region, creating conflict of interest among stakeholders. The study uses a multi-level stakeholder co-creative process including meetings with civil servants respectively politicians, industry stakeholders and landowners. The process is designed by a transdisciplinary team of researchers and civil servants. Material about participants perspective on the design of the process as well as its end-product: A new water management plan, is collected through interviews workshops and surveys. 


The preliminary results show that the process is engaging and leads to in-depth discussions on the present and future water management in the catchment. Politicians and civil servants to some extent have different focuses on necessary challenges and changes. So far, two out of five dialogues have been facilitated. Dialogue one focused on a general identification of challenges while dialogue two focused on a broader spectrum of solutions and evaluation of solutions. The upcoming dialogues will focus on organisation, urban versus rural communities, financing and communication. The study also plans to incorporate dialogue with higher-level stakeholders such as national and regional authorities and citizens. We believe this type of iterative process has the potential to level the implementation of NbS, specifically in water councils throughout Sweden, but particularly in Kävlinge Water Council. We also believe that the result can be incorporated in regional and national water policy to level the implementation of NbS, the EU Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive. 

References
Seddon, N., Chausson, A., Berry, P., Girardin, C.A.J., Smith, A., Turner, B., (2020). Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 375, 20190120. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120  

How to cite: Enström, E. and Alkan Olsson, J.: The Transformative Potential of Water Councils – A Case Study of Kävlinge Water Council in the South of Sweden  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15387, 2025.

EGU25-15452 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Quantifying Flood Regulation Dynamics: A Systematic Approach 

Kaihao Zheng and Peirong Lin

Floodplain urbanization shapes exposure to floods, and necessitates the deployment of structural water infrastructure (e.g., dams) to mitigate the exposure. While the flood regulation capacity of a basin is traditionally assessed by the total capacity of its infrastructures, the changing hydro-climatic factors and increasing floodplain urbanization creates continuously evolving demands on the system. These changes highlight flood regulation as a complex and multivariate challenge, yet a systematic framework to capture these dynamic interactions remains underdeveloped. This study introduces a novel quantification framework that models the key elements and the dynamics of flood regulation. Specifically, we quantify the floodplain urbanization pattern by the cumulative distribution function of Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), and estimate the pressure it poses on the infrastructures under different flood magnitudes (e.g., 100-year and 500-year floods) under different flood exposure levels. To test the proposed approach, we apply it to the Ganjiang River Basin in China, focusing on the interactions between Ji’An city and the upstream Wan’An Dam. We find that during a 100-year flood with urban expansion up to 2015, the Wan’An Dam must operate at 42.5% capacity to limit flood exposure in Ji’An to below 5%. The effectiveness of our framework is supported by validating results against historical flood data from the Ganjiang River Basin. Moreover, our analysis reveals a monotonic increase in flood regulation pressure as both urban exposure levels and flood magnitude rise. We further define a characteristic curve that synthesizes the interactions among all components of the system, which offers a systematic illustration of the dynamics at play. Our proposed framework represents the first standardized quantitative approach for assessing multivariate flood regulation dynamics, offering a valuable tool for probing into the complex interplay of flood regulation under changing climate and urbanization conditions at large scales.

How to cite: Zheng, K. and Lin, P.: Quantifying Flood Regulation Dynamics: A Systematic Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15452, 2025.

EGU25-17906 | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Co-Creation of a Real-Time Platform for Integrated Water Resource Management: Combining Stakeholders’ Engagement, Modelling and Digital Tools at Farm and basin Scale 

Marta Debolini, Simone Mereu, Matteo Funaro, Andrea Borgo, Lisa Napolitano, Guido Rianna, Vangelis Constantianos, Alexandros Kandarakis, Francesco Martini, Josep Pijuan Parra, Lluis Vine Rius, Serena Marras, Kamel Nagaz, Fathia ElMokh, Naem Mazahrih, and Ihab Jomaa

Agriculture is the most water-consuming sector in the Mediterranean region, accounting for up to 70% of total uses in southern regions. Addressing this high demand while fostering socio-economic growth necessitates improving irrigation efficiency and water productivity. However, the dual pressures of climate change and population growth threaten water availability and increase agricultural water demand. Effective water resource management faces challenges, including sectoral policy conflicts, fragmented governance, inefficient water use across overlapping domains, and the lack of integrated digital tools to optimize water allocation and monitor usage effectively. Digital transformation in the water sector is pivotal for sustainable Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). Advanced digital tools enable comprehensive monitoring, analysis, and decision-making within a unified framework, enhancing cross-sectoral coordination and supporting sustainable growth. However, for these tools to impact water governance, they must be user-friendly and collaboratively developed with stakeholders and end-users from diverse fields to ensure acceptance and practical application.

For these reasons, we carried out this work, aiming to develop a real-time digital platform for irrigation optimization and water resource management, leveraging Living Labs to ensure the tools meet local needs and challenges and then combining digital innovation and participatory methods to enhance IWRM and sustainable irrigation at farm and basin scales. The work employs a suite of innovative tools, including IoT sensors for real-time monitoring, Web of Things technology for interoperability, and advanced modeling tools for efficient operations and decision support. Two interactive dashboards were developed: one for farm-level irrigation management and the other for basin-scale decision-making. Real-time data collected through sensors is stored in a OGC SensorThings compliant database, enabling models to estimate crop water requirements and assess sectoral water consumption. The platform has been developed and tested in four Mediterranean case studies: Italy's Tirso River Basin, Jordan's Central  Jordan River Basin, Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, and Tunisia's Jeffara Plain. These regions face acute water scarcity and climate challenges, making them ideal testbeds for the proposed solutions. Living Labs in these areas facilitate collaboration with farmers and decision-makers, ensuring that tools are tailored to local needs. Two series of workshop were conducted in the four pilot areas: the first aimed at collecting local needs and expectation from the digitalization of the water accounting, and the second focused on presenting initial platformn advancement refining functionalities based on local feedback, training end-users, and assessing the tools effectiveness. This feedback loop ensures continuous improvement and alignment with stakeholders' expectations. Simultaneously, data were collected both from installed sensors and from existing monitoring tools, in order to calibrate the irrigation model at farm scale and the hydrological model at basin scale.

The integration of digital tools with participatory engagement enables simulation of complex interactions between environmental and socio-economic factors over different timeframes. This holistic approach enhances decision-making and informs policy recommendations, supporting climate change adaptation and sustainable water resource management in the Mediterranean region.

This work is conducted as part of the ACQUAOUNT PRIMA Project, which aims to advance digital innovation and participatory approaches for sustainable water resource management in the Mediterranean region.

How to cite: Debolini, M., Mereu, S., Funaro, M., Borgo, A., Napolitano, L., Rianna, G., Constantianos, V., Kandarakis, A., Martini, F., Pijuan Parra, J., Vine Rius, L., Marras, S., Nagaz, K., ElMokh, F., Mazahrih, N., and Jomaa, I.: Co-Creation of a Real-Time Platform for Integrated Water Resource Management: Combining Stakeholders’ Engagement, Modelling and Digital Tools at Farm and basin Scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17906, 2025.

EGU25-18751 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

The Global Oasis Knowledge Hub 

Jessica Hetzer, Rainer Krug, Mechthilde Falkenhahn, and Aidin Niamir

Oases are valuable ecosystems with millions of people depending on their ecosystem services. However, scientific knowledge of oases is scattered due to the diverse and spatially dispersed nature of their local conditions. Here we present "The Global Oasis Knowledge Hub", an open access literature database specifically focused on bringing together knowledge from various sources. Freely publicly available, it contains over 12,000 entries drawn from reviewed key literature, providing a valuable resource of oasis knowledge at its core, as well as closely related topics, that the global research community could utilize. The Global Oasis Knowledge Hub will be frequently updated with new literature, regularly expanding the repository of key references, supporting a deeper understanding of oasis ecosystems. In addition, the code used to create this knowledge hub is openly available on GitHub, allowing users to create their own customised knowledge hubs based on key literature. This initiative improves the accessibility of literature and facilitates knowledge sharing for researchers, policy makers and practitioners.

How to cite: Hetzer, J., Krug, R., Falkenhahn, M., and Niamir, A.: The Global Oasis Knowledge Hub, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18751, 2025.

The rapid expansion of dam construction highlights the need to understand the impact of human regulation on river ecosystems and surrounding communities. This study focuses on the Lower Yellow River Basin, a region severely affected by water scarcity, flooding risks, and low ecological resilience. The Xiaolangdi Reservoir, completed in 1999, was designed to address these challenges. Through a comprehensive analysis of the reservoir’s effects on downstream hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, and human activities, we evaluate its effectiveness and explore the interaction between natural processes and human interventions. Our findings indicate that reservoir operations have transformed the river channel from a braided to a meandering form, enhancing flood transport capacity by 79%. While sediment scouring has partially mitigated sediment interception, helping reduce coastal erosion in the Yellow River Delta. However, altered seasonal flow patterns have created water shortages for irrigation and environmental flows, exacerbating conflicts between human and environmental water requirements. Riverbed incision has decreased water diversion efficiency, contributing to groundwater over-extraction with depletion rate of -31.9 mm/year. Additionally, Degradation of tidal flats caused by sediment deficiency has threatened migratory shorebirds, with its populations declining by an average of 1,573 individuals annually.  This study also indicate that the influence of hydrological factors is diminishing over time, while local human activities are having a growing impact on the system. To mitigate future risks, we advocate for the adoption of adaptive, localized, and nature-based management strategies, including the restoration of riparian wetlands, dynamic water allocation, and enhancement of delta resilience through hydrological connectivity and living shorelines. This research offers valuable insights for sustainable water resource management in the Lower Yellow River and other regions facing similar issues.

How to cite: Wu, X.: Evolution of the socio-hydrological system in the Lower Yellow River under human regulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19753, 2025.

Water resources are under immense pressure in the Anthropocene, requiring innovative and collaborative approaches to ensure sustainable management. The EU-funded TALANOA-Water project embodies a transdisciplinary framework, engaging a diverse array of stakeholders—scientists, policymakers, local communities, NGOs, businesses, and others—in iterative co-creation processes to tackle complex water challenges in six pilot water laboratories in the mediterranean area (Egypt, France, Italy, Lebanon, Spain, and Tunisia). This presentation highlights the project's outcomes in leveraging participatory approaches to co-construct actionable water management solutions under climate change and socio-economic uncertainties.

Guided by the Talanoa Dialogue principles of inclusivity, mutual learning, and transparency, the project co-developed socio-hydrological scenarios that integrate diverse perspectives and knowledge systems. These scenarios were tested using a multi-system modeling framework collaboratively designed with stakeholders to enable robust policy evaluation and enhanced water management. The framework incorporates climatic, hydrologic, agronomic, micro- and macro-economic modules, interconnected through protocols that allow feedback between systems while preserving model specificity and precision. Prioritizing models already familiar to stakeholders—even though not always state-of-the-art—ensured greater usability and trust in the process. Modeling efforts

Key outcomes include co-designed models and participatory tools, such as serious games developed and applied in four pilot labs, that improve decision-making, foster stakeholder trust, and address trade-offs among competing water uses. Additionally, a meta-analysis of co-creation approaches conducted within the project offers valuable insights into their effectiveness, barriers, and enablers, shedding light on their transformative potential for integrated water resource management.

How to cite: Sapino, F.: Co-Designing Water Management Through the TALANOA Dialogue, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20303, 2025.

EGU25-21682 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.5/HS12.2

River Management and Community-Driven Tourism: Harnessing Cultural Ecosystem Services at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia 

Idea Wening Nurani, Franck Lavigne, and Emmanuèle Gautier

Merapi is known as one of the world’s most active and densely populated volcanoes. Despite the constant threat it poses, local residents continue to live on its slopes, largely because of the vital ecosystem services that support their livelihoods. One of the cultural ecosystem services provided by the rivers around Merapi volcano is recreation, including at Krasak river which has been impacted by Merapi's eruptions from 2010 to 2023. This study aims to identify the development of tourism destination along the Krasak River as part of ecosystem services. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with the head and representatives of the Grojogan Watu Purbo management team in Merdikorejo village, Sleman, Yogyakarta. Content analysis was used to examine the operation of the site and its connection to local knowledge of the river. The research findings show that the community tried to seek alternative sources of income by utilizing the beauty of the sabo dam built in their village. Since 2017, they prepared this tourist spot and in 2019, visitors began to arrive. Many visitors come to enjoy the view of the cascading waterfalls created by the sabo dam on the Krasak river, especially for taking selfies and enjoying the sunset in the countryside. For safety reasons, a simple communication network has been established, involving the hamlet (dusun) head, management team, and operational staffs, to monitor the river’s flow, especially during heavy rainfall. The presence of water hyacinth or twigs carried by water is an indicator of high-water discharge, signalling the potential for flooding or lahar. The colour of the river water also reflects mining activities upstream. For them, the flow of the river is important in attracting the visitors. Although they do not have yet a specific program in river monitoring and conservation, they have already cooperated with Disaster Management Agency and Tourism Agency in Regency level in terms of Early Warning System and site management. Strengthening communication and cooperation with other tourism managers along the Krasak River and involving communities in neighbouring villages would be beneficial for the sustainable management of the volcanic river.

How to cite: Nurani, I. W., Lavigne, F., and Gautier, E.: River Management and Community-Driven Tourism: Harnessing Cultural Ecosystem Services at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21682, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21682, 2025.

EGU25-21844 | Posters on site | ITS3.5/HS12.2

Towards Sustainable Solutions: Assessing Rural Access to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation in Atyrau, Kazakhstan 

Kamshat Tussupova, Zhanerke Bolatova, Raikhan Beisenova, Galiya Omarova, and Yerlan Kabiyev

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to advance sustainable social and economic progress globally. Out of Kazakhstan´s about 20 million people, 7.5 million people reside in 6,500 rural settlements, with 6.5 million in 3,900 settlements connected to centralized water supply systems. About half of all households rely on private boreholes and public standpipes. Additionally, 80% of rural households use outdoor toilets, with just 3% connected to sewer systems, highlighting significant disparities in water and sanitation access. Consequently, safe access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) for rural people is the most important priority for Kazakhstan regarding SDGs. However, there is large discrepancy between official statistics and the actual conditions highlighting urgent needs for accurate baseline data to better reflect the realities of water and sanitation access in Kazakhstan. For this purpose, we used structured questionnaires to assess water access, sanitation services, and a multinomial logistic regression analysis to examine the factors influencing households' willingness to pay (WTP) for individual water supply systems in Atyrau households. Water sources, sanitation availability, and household practices were investigated offering insights into sustainable water and sanitation management. Indoor taps served 44.2% of households, while 60.5% used centralized systems for drinking water. Daily interruptions affected 19.9%, with 23.0% dissatisfied with quality. Outdoor toilets were used by 79.6%, and 43.7% relied on pit-filling. While 82.5% of respondents favored free individual water supply installations, only 11.6% were willing to pay the $426 installation cost, highlighting financial constraints. Consequently, there are persistent challenges in ensuring safe drinking water and sanitation in rural areas of Kazakhstan. Infrastructure gaps, poor water quality, and reliance on outdoor toilets pose health risks. Financial constraints further limit access. Targeted investments, improved oversight, and community engagement are critical for sustainable solutions aligned with the SDGs.

How to cite: Tussupova, K., Bolatova, Z., Beisenova, R., Omarova, G., and Kabiyev, Y.: Towards Sustainable Solutions: Assessing Rural Access to Safe Drinking Water and Sanitation in Atyrau, Kazakhstan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21844, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21844, 2025.

With the growing focus on the concept of net-zero carbon reduction, the application performance of steel slag asphalt concrete has attracted increasing attention. However, numerous factors at construction sites influence construction quality, and steel slag, as a recycled material, often raises concerns about the stability of its construction quality. In this study, steel slag asphalt concrete (with a steel slag content of 39%) was evaluated on two experimental roads located on heavy traffic routes: Experimental Road A and Experimental Road B. Both roads are situated at similar distances from the asphalt mixing plant, allowing for an analysis of temperature changes and performance stability across different conditions. Experimental Road A’s length is 2,395 meters, while Experimental Road B’s length is 640 meters, with both roads surface layers having a pavement thickness of 5 cm. This study monitored temperature variations during the transportation and paving processes as well as road smoothness and rut depth over 18 months after opening to traffic. Results indicated that the average temperature drop during transportation was 14.6°C for Experimental Road A and 16.8°C for Experimental Road B, with an identical average paving temperature of 166.5°C for both. These findings suggest stable temperature control during transportation and paving. Performance analysis under heavy traffic over 18 months revealed that the standard deviation of pavement smoothness increased by 0.9 mm for both experimental roads. Meanwhile, the maximum rut depth increased by 5.5 mm for Experimental Road A and 5.4 mm for Experimental Road B. The results show that steel slag asphalt concrete exhibited excellent load-bearing capacity and stability across different experimental roads.

How to cite: Lin, D.-F., Wang, W.-J., and Chen, L. Y.: Evaluation of Temperature Stability and Pavement Performance of Steel Slag Asphalt Concrete Based on an Experimental Roadway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1174, 2025.

In the 1860s, humanity entered the electrical era, characterized by the widespread use of artificial light. This development created conditions for nighttime social and economic activities, significantly expanding the temporal and spatial range of human engagement and fostering the growth of a vibrant nighttime economy, which has become an important indicator of urban vitality in modern society. However, the rise of artificial lighting also increases risks to human health and the environment. Research highlights that blue light, a high-energy segment of the visible spectrum emitted by artificial light sources, is particularly concerning. Studies have linked blue light exposure to skin cancer, retinal damage, and increased melanin production, leading to various health complications. Although significant advancements in remote sensing technology support research on nighttime light, studies specifically examining human exposure to blue light are still limited. The main reason is the constraints of available multispectral nighttime light images. In this study, we leverage the latest open-source multispectral nighttime glimmer image obtained from the SDGSAT-1 to create a 40-meter resolution RGB nighttime light products for China. We then focus on extracting the blue light component and analyze its spatial characteristics in relation to human exposure. We uncover several key findings: 1) Overall, blue light exposure in China exhibits a dispersed distribution of high-value areas, with notable local concentrations. 2) In urban regions, new urban developing areas have higher blue light exposure compared to older areas, and commercial areas have higher exposure level than residential and industrial areas. 3) In China, the Greater Bay Area (GBA) stands out with exceptionally high blue light exposure relative to other metropolitan regions.  This research enhances our understanding of the relationship between artificial light pollution and residents' living spaces. Furthermore, the findings provide valuable recommendations for urban planners and policymakers in developing protective measures and industry standards for nighttime light sources, ultimately contributing to sustainable urban development.

How to cite: Huang, Y. and Chen, B.: Nighttime Light Color Characteristics and Blue Light Exposure in China based on SDGSAT-1 Glimmer Image, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5560, 2025.

EGU25-5566 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

The spatiotemporal dynamics of global urban expansion: Evidence from 2D urban area and 3D urban building volume 

Yiming Hou, Qingxu Huang, Tianci Gu, and Guoliang Zhu

Accurate and comprehensively quantification of the dynamics of urban expansion is important for improving land use efficiency and sustainability in the context of rapidly urbanization in urban critical zones. However, existing studies still lack the understanding of the long-term dynamics of global urban expansion from both two-dimensional and three-dimensional expansions. In this study, we quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of global urban expansion from 1990 to 2020, and used machine learning models and the SHAP method to explore the potential driving factors of urban expansion. The results show that the world as a whole has been expanding continuously over the past 30 years, with 5567 cities expanding to varying degrees, accounting for 74.3% of the total number of cities. Among them, the speed of urban expansion in South Asia is faster than that in other regions (2D UEI = 1.48, 3D UEI = 1.27). In addition, global urban expansion has shown an overall trend from a slow growth to a fast growth, and then a gradually decelerating growth. From the perspective of urban expansion type, the number of cities with vertical expansion is the largest, accounting for 32.8% of the total number of cities in the world, followed by cities with horizontal expansion and cities with unclear expansion. In addition, urban infrastructure construction and socioeconomic factors played important roles in urban expansion, among which population density can explain 55.1% of the variations of the two-dimensional urban expansion, and per capita urban building volume can explain 33.8% of the variations of the three-dimensional expansion. This study can provide a scientific basis for formulating urban planning according to local conditions and improving urban land use efficiency.

How to cite: Hou, Y., Huang, Q., Gu, T., and Zhu, G.: The spatiotemporal dynamics of global urban expansion: Evidence from 2D urban area and 3D urban building volume, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5566, 2025.

EGU25-8456 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Tracking Volatile Organic Compounds in Urban Wastewater Systems: A Critical Concern for Endocrine Disruptor Regulation 

Priyansha Gupta, Shiwangi Dogra, Siddhant Dash, and Manish Kumar

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are major contributors to the release of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs), many of which pose significant risks to human health through both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic pathways. These chemicals, along with plastic-derived compounds, pesticides, and pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), have emerged as critical environmental pollutants. Their widespread release through urban wastewater systems, combined with their hydrophilic nature and limited removal efficiency in conventional WWTPs, allows these pollutants to persist throughout the water cycle, often contaminating drinking water supplies. Despite increasing global awareness of the environmental and health risks associated with these contaminants, data on their occurrence, transport, and fate in Mexico's wastewater systems are still limited. To address this knowledge gap, the present study analyzed 54 VOCs in wastewater samples collected from 17 WWTPs across different provinces of Mexico. Among these, 38 VOCs were detected at significant levels, with the highest concentrations recorded for Toluene (21.39 µg/L), 1,1,2,2-Tetrachloroethane (28.02 µg/L), followed by p-Isopropyltoluene (27.24 µg/L), and Trichloromethane (17.56 µg/L). Additionally, pesticides and related chemicals such as 2-Chlorotoluene, Naphthalene, 1,2-Dichlorobenzene, and n-Butylbenzene were prevalent, underscoring the extensive use of these compounds in agricultural practices. These chemicals not only bioaccumulate in soil but can also leach into groundwater systems, exacerbating contamination risks and increasing their persistence in the environment. Furthermore, many of the detected compounds, such as Toluene, its derivatives, and Trichloromethane, are known endocrine disruptors (EDCs) capable of causing hormonal imbalances, drug resistance, and reduced primary productivity in ecosystems. Their bioaccumulation in organisms and persistence in water further exacerbate their environmental impact, making them critical candidates for regulatory scrutiny. Therefore, this study underscores the urgent need for enhanced regulatory monitoring and management strategies targeting VOCs and EDCs in Mexico’s wastewater systems. By providing valuable insights into the prevalence and distribution of these hazardous pollutants, the findings highlight the importance of incorporating pesticides and PPCPs into comprehensive monitoring frameworks. Such efforts are essential for mitigating the environmental and health impacts of these contaminants and ensuring the sustainable management of water resources. The results also offer a foundation for developing targeted interventions aimed at reducing pollutant loads in wastewater and preventing their long-term accumulation in aquatic ecosystems.

 

How to cite: Gupta, P., Dogra, S., Dash, S., and Kumar, M.: Tracking Volatile Organic Compounds in Urban Wastewater Systems: A Critical Concern for Endocrine Disruptor Regulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8456, 2025.

EGU25-8458 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Changes in the retention of pharmaceuticals by soil as an indicator of soil organic matter decomposition 

Lili Szabó, Zoltán Szalai, Anna Vancsik, Attila Csaba Kondor, Zoltán Dévény, Fruzsina Gresina, Balázs Vajna, Csaba Maller, and László Bauer

Using freshwater and greywater for irrigation introduces pharmaceuticals (PhACs) into arable lands that lack organic matter replenishment, thus altering soil composition and affecting PhACs retention throughout the vegetation period. We conducted an incubation experiment representing a simulated vegetation period using Black Soil, which covers about 21% of the world's agricultural areas. We used PhACs with diverse physicochemical properties that cover a wide range of the characteristics typical of PhACs accumulating within the rhizosphere such as carbamazepine (CBZ), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), and diclofenac-sodium (DFC) and their metabolites (trans-10,11-Dihydro-10,11-dihydroxy carbamazepine (TCBZ), estrone (E1), estriol (E3), 17β-estradiol (BE2), 17α-estradiol (LE2), and 5-hydroxydiclofenac (5HODFC)). We performed separated fixed-bed experiments (15 columns) to determine the main sorption properties of PhACs at the beginning, middle and end of the simulated vegetation period. In parallel, we were monitoring the changes in soil organic matter (SOM), characterized by the indicator physicochemical parameters (e.g. soil organic carbon (SOC), the ratio of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to SOC and the composition of soil aliphatic and aromatic compounds). We also analysed the properties of the SMC (e.g. acidic phosphatase-, dehydrogenase enzyme activity, and the composition of the communities). Chemometric modelling has allowed us to visualize how the physicochemical properties of PhACs shape the sorption processes at different decomposition stages of SOM. With these data, we estimate how parent compounds and their metabolites are retained and released by the ever-changing organic matter medium, which might be used to simulate the temporal mobility of PhACs in agricultural systems, thereby aiding in the management of soil nutrient replenishment.

The enzyme activity showed that the microbial community was continuously transforming the soil organic carbon, leading to its decrease. During the incubation period, representing the early stages of the vegetation period, the hydrophobicity and van der Waals surface area of PhACs affected soil retention strength. By this period's end, the Hydrogen-bond donor/acceptor ratio shaped the sorption processes. The physicochemical property that dominates the adsorption clearly indicates the transformation of the available functional groups. We demonstrate the necessity of considering soil conditions over time rather than relying on a single observation, as it is inherently limited in its ability to represent the soil's actual state.

This research was supported by OTKA K142865, NKFIH 2020–1.1.2-PIACI-KFI-2021-00309; 2021–1.2.4-TÉT-2021-00029, HUSK_2302_1.2_070 INTERREG and DKOP-23_03.

How to cite: Szabó, L., Szalai, Z., Vancsik, A., Kondor, A. C., Dévény, Z., Gresina, F., Vajna, B., Maller, C., and Bauer, L.: Changes in the retention of pharmaceuticals by soil as an indicator of soil organic matter decomposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8458, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8458, 2025.

EGU25-8662 | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

The SewerNet domain ontology: on clarifying and harmonising terminology 

C. Maria Keet, Batoul Haydar, and Nanée Chahinian

Wastewater network management is being digitised and integrated across municipalities. A shared understanding and terminology of the systems is important both for modern urban water management and modelling climate-induced stressors on the network. Ontologies are a well-known mechanism to record the shared understanding. While several ontologies exist that focus on the water, and several exist on service infrastructure, there is a gap in the ontology landscape about wastewater services infrastructure. 

We are currently developing an ontology about wastewater networks and a first version is publicly available at http://sewernet.hsm.umontpellier.fr/. Key aims for the use of the ontology in our project are data integration, ontology-based query answering the detect incoherent data in wastewater network databases, and document annotation, but, it being a domain ontology, SewerNet is usable also for other types of ontology-mediated information systems. In this talk, we focus on interesting discrepancies and lack of clarity in non-ontological resources we used for the development, such as the INSPIRE EU directive and the RAEPA geostandard, that needed to be harmonised in the ontology. Examples include pipe versus conduit, disambiguation between maintenance plans and individual repair actions, precision/uncertainty in the measurements, circulation mode.  The use of a foundational ontology (DOLCE) to assist structuring content was perceived beneficial, as well as the ontological questions to align to the DOLCE entities, which helped probing the nature of the entity and elucidate assumptions about terms. 

How to cite: Keet, C. M., Haydar, B., and Chahinian, N.: The SewerNet domain ontology: on clarifying and harmonising terminology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8662, 2025.

EGU25-8688 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

From pollution to prediction: Modelling contamination scenarios and their impact on the retention of pharmaceuticals dynamics in a Black Soil 

László Bauer, Zoltán Szalai, Fruzsina Gresina, Anna Vancsik, Attila Csaba Kondor, and Lili Szabó

Treated wastewater and sewage sludge contain frequently persistent organic micropollutants (OMPs) that tend to accumulate during wastewater treatment. Long-term impacts of these pollutants on human health, plant productivity and ecosystem functioning are of concern, as they can accumulate and alter the soil-water-plant continuum. The introduction of OMPs during the early vegetation period alters the soil-colloid system's physicochemical properties, reshaping the availability and nature of adsorption sites. The joint mechanism of action (combined accumulation and interaction) of OMPs influence subsequent interactions between the soil and newly introduced contaminants, requiring later OMPs to establish different intermolecular reactions with the soil's organic and mineral phases. As a result, the soil's retention capacity and sorption dynamics evolve throughout the vegetation period, driven by the cumulative effects of prior contamination. Consequently, PhACs exhibits different transport, accumulation and bioaccumulation behaviour during the vegetation period, which is shaped by the changing contaminated and uncontaminated soil environment.

In this study, we investigated how contamination introduced at the start of a simulated vegetation period influences the retention capacity of Phaeozem and its effects on the sorption activity of pharmaceuticals (PhACs). Specifically, we investigated the impacts of ciprofloxacin (CPX), difenoconazole (DFZ), and PhACs such as (carbamazepine (CBZ), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), diclofenac sodium (DFC), trans-10,11-dihydro-10,11-dihydroxycarbamazepine (TCBZ), estrone (E1), estriol (E3), 17β-estradiol (17β-E2), 17α-estradiol (17α-E2), 5-hydroxydiclofenac (5-HODFC)) separately, as well as their combined effects, under different contamination scenarios. Fixed-bed experiments simulated vegetation period scenarios to evaluate changes in retention capacity, while chemometric modelling was used to analyse adsorption-desorption interactions. Our research additionally, tracked changes in soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics and enzymatic activities (phosphatases and dehydrogenases) indicative of microbial community functions throughout the vegetation period. According to the statistical modelling, OMPs significantly alter the quantity of SOM in the rhizosphere under different contamination scenarios, as well as its quality, including the ratio of aliphatic, aromatic, and phenolic lignin compounds. These changes represent a significant transformation in the adsorbent, reshaping the initial competitive groups of adsorbates (PhACs). Throughout the simulated vegetation period, shifts in the dominant physicochemical properties of the adsorbates drive dynamic changes in the sorption behaviour and bioavailability of PhACs. This research highlights the complex and scenario-dependent interactions between soil composition and contaminants, offering insights for predicting the environmental impacts of pharmaceutical pollution in agricultural systems.

This research was supported by OTKA K142865, NKFIH 2020–1.1.2-PIACI-KFI-2021-00309; 2021–1.2.4-TÉT-2021-00029, HUSK_2302_1.2_070 INTERREG and DKOP-23 _03.

How to cite: Bauer, L., Szalai, Z., Gresina, F., Vancsik, A., Kondor, A. C., and Szabó, L.: From pollution to prediction: Modelling contamination scenarios and their impact on the retention of pharmaceuticals dynamics in a Black Soil, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8688, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8688, 2025.

EGU25-10888 | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Microplastic Pathways: Investigating Vertical and Horizontal Movement from Riverine Environments to Oceans 

Kanchan Deoli Bahukhandi, Shalini Arya, Nitin Kamboj, and Kanika Dogra

Abstract

Microplastics (MPs) contamination is a global and pervasive problem in the riverine ecosystem, where rivers serve as conduits, transporting microplastics from land-based sources to the ocean. MPs transport is influenced by physical characteristics and hydrodynamics, with high-density MPs likely to be near riverbeds, while low-density particles float over river surfaces. The transport of MPs occurs either due to settling (horizontal transport) or gravity-driven (vertical transport). This study investigates the intricate relationships between sediment transport, hydrological processes, and the behavior of various MPs, with a particular focus on their vertical and horizontal migration in riverine environments. Additionally, the study highlights how the physicochemical properties of MPs influence their transport within these systems. Several removal methods have been developed to mitigate microplastic pollution, including coagulation/sedimentation, adsorption, ultrafiltration, biodegradation, and photocatalytic degradation. These techniques have proven effective in eliminating microplastics composed of polymers such as polystyrene (PS), polyethylene (PE), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Among the solutions, biochar and microbial agents stand out as promising, eco-friendly alternatives. Therefore, this study also emphasizes the importance of the development of effective removal of MPs to protect aquatic ecosystems.

Keywords: Microplastics; Riverine; Ocean pollution; Vertical; horizontal movement

 

How to cite: Bahukhandi, K. D., Arya, S., Kamboj, N., and Dogra, K.: Microplastic Pathways: Investigating Vertical and Horizontal Movement from Riverine Environments to Oceans, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10888, 2025.

EGU25-11927 | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Improving the understanding of the functioning of water bodies in the urban critical zoneAn observation platform of an urban lake in the Greater Paris region 

Brigitte Vinçon-Leite, Yoann Cartier, Arthur Guillot – Le Goff, Alice Marquet, Mohamed Saad, and Philippe Dubois

In urban areas, water bodies provide a number of ecosystem services that are particularly crucial: flood control, preservation of biodiversity, formation of cool islands, recreational activities, landscape quality, etc.

Lakes and ponds are part of the urban critical zone. Many of them have been created in the recent decades as sand-pit lakes or retention ponds. Sand-pit lakes are the result of sand and gravel extraction for the construction of towns. Retention ponds have been implemented to limit flooding risks and to reduce the pollution peaks associated with heavy rainfall. Actually, in the context of climate change, urbanisation which is associated with the imperviousness of soils, increases the run-off processes.

Moreover, the large interface between the aquatic and terrestrial environments makes these urban lakes fundamental ecosystems for maintaining biodiversity in the city.

The hydrodynamics, ecological functioning and fate of contaminants in the water column of these lakes are very important environmental issues. In order to better understand the physical and biogeochemical processes at stake and to which extent they may be affected by climate change, autonomous monitoring stations can provide long-term, high-frequency, reliable datasets. These data are also very useful for the calibration of numerical model parameters.

The monitoring station implemented in Lake Creteil, in a highly urbanised area of the Greater Paris region (France) is presented. The surface area of the lake is 0.4 km2, average depth 4 m, maximum depth 6 m. The lake is fed by groundwater flowing from the Marne to the Seine and by the stormwater network of an urban catchment (1 km2). This observation platform is part of an OSU (Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers) and is also associated to the French SNO OBSERVIL (Service National d’Observation) network.

The instrumented buoy is equipped with underwater probes to measure physical and biogeochemical parameters and a weather station. Underwater measurements are performed every 15 minutes and meteorological measurements every 10 minutes. Temperature probes (CS225 Campbell) are deployed at five different depths: 0.5 m, 1.5 m, 2.5 m, 3.5 m and 4.5 m. At 1.5 m depth, a multiparameter probe (YSI Exo3) measures oxygen, conductivity, chlorophyll-a and phycocyanin. The weather station measures the wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, rainfall height, short and longwave radiations.

The lake data are exported to a local database via a GSM protocol. The data is visualized on a web dashboard using the open-source Grafana software. On the dashboard, the timeseries of the underwater and the meteorological measurements are displayed in a panel and the short-term (2 days) forecast of the variables obtained by a neural network model are plotted as gauge charts.

The results of the timeseries analysis are presented to illustrate how some physical and biogeochemical processes occurring in the lake (e.g. thermal stratification, peak of phytoplankton biomass, anoxia of the deep layers…) have been quantified. The use of the data for parameter calibration and validation of hydro-ecological numerical models is also presented.

How to cite: Vinçon-Leite, B., Cartier, Y., Guillot – Le Goff, A., Marquet, A., Saad, M., and Dubois, P.: Improving the understanding of the functioning of water bodies in the urban critical zoneAn observation platform of an urban lake in the Greater Paris region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11927, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11927, 2025.

EGU25-12103 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

A rapid and cost-effective method for assessing sediment volumes and accumulation rates in stormwater infiltration facilities 

Milèna Chabert, Damien Tedoldi, Gautier Large, Abdelkader Lakel, Alexandre Fardel, Gislain Lipeme Kouyi, Aurore Gasc, Emilie Nguyen, and Vincent Chatain

As soil artificialization and climate change continue to accelerate, effective stormwater management has become essential to mitigate flooding and preserve water resources, leading to the widespread development of stormwater management facilities based on infiltration (e.g., basins, swales, trenches, raingardens). Runoff carries suspended particles, which act as vectors for various micropollutants that can be potentially harmful or toxic to aquatic life. These facilities promote the retention of such pollutants through sedimentation and/or filtration. However, the layer of deposited sediment can, over time, impair their functioning (e.g., hydraulic regulation and contaminant mitigation). Inadequate management of sediment can thus negate the benefits of these facilities and lead to higher maintenance costs. Given the increasing implementation of stormwater infiltration facilities, accurately characterizing sediment accumulation is crucial for anticipating future maintenance needs across urban territories. However, to date, most existing methods, based on continuous measurements of flow rates and turbidity and/or stormwater sampling, are unsuitable for routine assessments across multiple sites.

This study proposes a rapid and cost-effective approach to evaluate sediment accumulation rates in stormwater infiltration facilities. The total accumulated volume over a known period is estimated by measuring sediment height along a tailored grid, combined with geostatistical interpolation. A detailed analysis of the dry bulk density of stormwater sediments, ranging from 0.4 to 1.2 g/cm³, also enables mass estimation, while knowledge of the accumulation duration allows the calculation of the average annual accumulation rate. The reliability of the method in delivering accurate estimates of the average annual particle load for urban catchments was verified by (i) comparing the results with continuous monitoring data from a pilot site over several years, and (ii) applying the method to nine sites in France and comparing the results with literature data.

Particle load estimates from this dataset showed significant variability, typically ranging from 50 to 2000 kg/ha impervious surface/year. In areas with lower sediment accumulation potential (e.g., residential areas or low-volume parking lots), loads generally do not exceed 1000 kg/haimp/yr, while more productive areas (e.g., high-traffic roads or heavy industrial sites) can reach up to 2000 kg/haimp/yr. These values can be translated into filling rates for facilities (cm/yr) by considering the degree of system centralization, defined by the ratio of infiltration area to catchment area. This rate tends to be several times higher in a centralized basin (almost 10 cm/yr) than in a source infiltration system (up to 1 cm/yr). However, spatially distributed measurements revealed heterogeneous accumulation patterns linked to hydraulic functioning, enabling targeted sediment removal as a prudent and cost-effective solution.

This approach enables the estimation of sediment accumulation rates across various urban catchments and provides an indirect method for quantifying contaminants that tend to associate with particles. Efficient in terms of both time and cost, this method supports the strategic planning of maintenance operations across diverse urban contexts, including densely populated cities and environmentally sensitive areas. By enhancing the long-term effectiveness of stormwater infiltration facilities, it helps prevent water contamination and mitigate risks to fragile ecosystems.

How to cite: Chabert, M., Tedoldi, D., Large, G., Lakel, A., Fardel, A., Lipeme Kouyi, G., Gasc, A., Nguyen, E., and Chatain, V.: A rapid and cost-effective method for assessing sediment volumes and accumulation rates in stormwater infiltration facilities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12103, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12103, 2025.

EGU25-13211 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Leaching of PFASs from PFAS-Impacted Construction Materials: An Experimental and Modeling Study 

Fatemeh Hamidi, Ankit Sharma, Elisabeth Fries, Jochen Mueller, Phong Thai, Lachlan Jekimovs, Stephanie Fiorenza, Kevin Toth, Brandon Steets, Jared Ervin, Lori E. Tunstall, and Christopher P. Higgins

The extensive use of aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF) at US military facilities has led to significant contamination of poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) of the subsurface. So far, PFASs contamination at firefighting training areas (FTAs) has been mostly studied in groundwater and soil, neglecting the contribution of leaching from PFASs-contaminated construction materials such as concrete and asphalt into the adjacent environment. Previous studies measured PFASs concentrations reaching up to mg/kg in concrete and asphalt at FTAs and leaching substantial levels (up to μg/L) into runoff water.

Our study investigates the PFASs leaching behavior from AFFF-impacted construction materials, focusing on concrete and asphalt sourced from military sites. The primary objectives include evaluating PFAS leaching rates and duration under various weathered and stabilizer-treated conditions and assessing the effectiveness and potential longevity of reforming techniques and sorbent materials in mitigating PFAS contamination in surface runoff. These data are critical for estimating stormwater treatment lifecycle costs and comparing treatment with other remedial alternatives, such as excavation and disposal. Dynamic rainfall simulations were conducted on intact PFAS-contaminated cores to replicate field conditions. Preliminary results indicate that biochars hold significant potential as sorbents when integrated into concrete formulations, effectively adsorbing PFASs and improving the concrete matrix. Additionally, we hypothesize that rainfall contact time on concrete and asphalt surfaces plays a critical role in influencing PFAS concentrations, a hypothesis which will be tested through both laboratory experiments and modeling efforts. To support this, a funnel prototype was developed to assess the effects of slope and contact time on PFAS leaching profiles. These findings provide important insights into PFAS leachability under varying conditions and highlight the environmental implications of reusing PFAS-impacted construction materials across various industries, including PFAS manufacturing and chrome plating.

The results underscore the critical need for additional leaching experiments to advance sustainable reuse practices for PFAS-impacted construction materials. Such efforts are essential for developing cost-effective source control strategies and lifecycle comparisons to inform broader remediation frameworks in both military and industrial applications.

 

Keywords: PFASs-impacted construction materials, Leaching behavior, Dynamic rainfall simulation, Concrete and asphalt reuse, Sorbent materials.

How to cite: Hamidi, F., Sharma, A., Fries, E., Mueller, J., Thai, P., Jekimovs, L., Fiorenza, S., Toth, K., Steets, B., Ervin, J., Tunstall, L. E., and Higgins, C. P.: Leaching of PFASs from PFAS-Impacted Construction Materials: An Experimental and Modeling Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13211, 2025.

EGU25-13816 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Variability of Biocide Emissions from Building Facades Based on Meteorological Data 

Rim Saad, Marie-Christine Gromaire, Adele Bressy, Chancibault Katia, and Chebbo Ghassan

Biocides are used extensively in urban settings for façade coatings, roof waterproofing, and termite control. During rainy weather, they are released into building runoff, causing negative impacts on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Prior studies mainly focused on laboratory experiments or small-scale contexts. Urban-scale modeling, however, has rarely been explored. This is due to the complexity of biocide behavior, the spatiotemporal variability of emission factors, and the limited knowledge about biocide use and existing stocks within the urban critical zone. Our objective is to assess the stock potential and emission potential of biocides from building envelopes in the Parisian conurbation. We also aim to develop and implement a model at the urban scale to evaluate the fluxes of biocides emitted in runoff water from building facades. One of the main factors that significantly influences the emissions is the wind-driven rain (WDR), which directly affects the volume of water runoff on building facades. Since emissions strongly depend on WDR, precise modeling needs adequate meteorological data, especially for extensive metropolitan regions. Our research focuses on the Île-de-France region, a heterogeneous and extensive urban area. This study examines the variability in meteorological data—namely precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction from nine stations located across the area (Acheres, Le Bourget, Longchamp, Magnanville, Orly, Paris Mont-Souris, Roissy, Trappes, and Villacoublay). By analyzing the data from these stations, we seek to quantify the variability in meteorological conditions across the area; evaluate the influence of these variations on cumulative biocide emissions; and assess the potential enhancement of accuracy and reliability in emission estimations by the combination of data from various stations.

To estimate biocide runoff from facades, we will develop scenarios on COMLEAM, a software program created by HSR (Hochschule für Technik Rapperswil) that simulates the leaching of hazardous compounds from building materials subjected to environmental conditions. The scenario used considers a building with eight façades oriented in primary compass directions made of render matte containing encapsulated terbutryn. Leaching behavior is approximated using mathematical functions from experimental data. As our investigation will not include an experimental component, we will depend on those suggested by COMLEAM, particularly the logarithmic function, which has been shown to be the most effective for characterizing biocide emissions. The emission function applied for terbutryn follows a logarithmic relationship derived from field studies in Zurich.

The findings demonstrate WDR's strong effect on biocide emissions, with important variation between measurements of each station. Two extremes were identified: Roissy had the highest cumulative WDR (200 L/m² from South-West) and emissions (~11,000 mg), whereas Acheres had significantly lower WDR (70 L/m² from South-West) and emissions (~7,000 mg). The others had comparable findings, with a total WDR of 140 L/m² and emissions of 10,000 mg over 10 years. These results also highlight the importance of the measurement station's location, as open-space stations (e.g., Roissy) exhibited higher WDR due to reduced shielding. From this study, we deduce that using large-scale meteorological data introduces biases, making meteorological parameter refinement essential for improving accuracy.

How to cite: Saad, R., Gromaire, M.-C., Bressy, A., Katia, C., and Ghassan, C.: Variability of Biocide Emissions from Building Facades Based on Meteorological Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13816, 2025.

Urbanization and its diverse forms and patterns have become central to global research as the world shifts its focus toward building sustainable, resilient, and livable cities. As urban areas grow in size and population, unplanned development frequently leads to inefficient land use, unsustainable spatial transformations, environmental degradation, and inadequate urban services. Addressing these challenges is critical to global sustainability, particularly when viewed through the lens of the urban critical zone—a dynamic space where human activities and natural systems interact, influencing resource flows and urban resilience.

Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, exemplifies these challenges and opportunities, making it an ideal case study for urbanization. As one of the world's fastest-growing metropolitan regions, it has undergone rapid demographic and spatial transformations, characterized by unique patterns of urban sprawl and rural-urban transitions. Understanding Delhi’s urban growth trajectory provides valuable insights into managing similar dynamics in other rapidly urbanizing regions.

This study examines the urban growth patterns of Delhi over the period 1990 to 2024 using satellite imagery and GIS to analyze spatial and temporal dynamics. The study adopts a multi-method approach to capture the complexities of urban growth. The three-growth mode hypothesis (infill, edge-expansion, and leapfrogging) is applied to identify and quantify distinct spatial dynamics of urbanization. Urban Field Intensity (UFI) analysis highlights areas experiencing maximum growth, while the Normalized Difference Expansion Index (NDEI) is used to assess sprawling or shrinking tendencies of the city over time. Future urban growth for the years 2030 and 2050 is projected using spatial simulation techniques, integrating historical growth trends, population dynamics, and land-use data to predict potential urban transformations. Additionally, field visits to critical zones—including rapidly transforming rural areas, infill-dominated regions, and outlying development zones—were conducted to validate spatial analyses and explore human-environment interactions. These combined approaches provide a comprehensive framework to evaluate urban growth and its implications for sustainability.

The results reveal that Delhi's urban growth is predominantly characterized by edge-expansion, with intermittent infill and leapfrogging patterns. Declining NDEI values across the study period indicate increased sprawl, posing sustainability challenges. UFI analysis highlights significant land transformation in rural areas, with specific zones experiencing up to a 60% increase in urban activity. The adjacent counter-magnet cities of Ghaziabad, Noida, Faridabad, and Gurugram significantly influence the region's urban dynamics. Field observations corroborate these findings, revealing acute infrastructure deficits in transition zones, particularly in water supply, transportation networks, and waste management. These insights underscore the urgency of targeted interventions to address sustainability challenges in Delhi’s sprawling urban regions.

This study underscores the need for region-specific strategies that harness sprawling tendencies to achieve sustainable urban growth. By advocating for the "make room" paradigm, it emphasizes urban planning approaches that integrate the interactions between human activities and critical biophysical processes to enhance resilience in rapidly growing urban areas.

Keywords: Urbanization, Urban sprawl, Sustainability, Urban critical zone, Spatial analysis

How to cite: Dutta, R. and Punia, M.: Exploring Urban Sprawl and Sustainability in the National Capital Territory of Delhi: Patterns, Challenges, and Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14911, 2025.

EGU25-16803 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

The toxic effects of Ibuprofen on aquatic freshwater plants: case study.  

Hanna Kornacka, Magdalena Sitarska, and Mirela Wolf-Baca

Ibuprofen, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), is used primarily for its analgesic and antipyretic effects. Its widespread popularity is attributable to its convenient availability. High levels of use worldwide and ineffective wastewater treatment result in ibuprofen becoming present in surface waters. Within the environment, it demonstrates bioaccumulation properties, exerting negative impacts on the development and functioning of aquatic organisms. The present study evaluates the effects of ibuprofen on plants of the Lemna minor species, which are commonly found in freshwater and are a popular model organism in ecotoxicology due to their rapid response to environmental stress and high sensitivity to the presence of pollutants. As part of the research, an analysis was conducted of the effects of different concentrations of ibuprofen on key parameters such as: biomass, chlorophyll content and leaf area. The analysis of both the obtained data and the existing literature suggests that the effect of ibuprofen on Lemna minor might vary depending on the specific experimental condition, such as the concentration of the pharmaceutical or the duration of exposure. The results obtained in this research clearly indicate that high levels of ibuprofen in the aquatic environment have a significant toxic effect on Lemna minor. The observations included progressive necrosis and chlorosis of leaves, as well as a marked inhibition of biomass growth, which suggests a significant reduction in the plant's growth capacity.

How to cite: Kornacka, H., Sitarska, M., and Wolf-Baca, M.: The toxic effects of Ibuprofen on aquatic freshwater plants: case study. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16803, 2025.

Urbanization and soil impermeabilization disrupt the natural water cycle, producing stormwater runoff that carries contaminants such as hydrocarbons, trace metal elements (TMEs), and pesticides (Makepeace et al., 1995). These pollutants, originating from urban surfaces, can harm aquatic ecosystems and groundwater. While stormwater management systems have been developed to control runoff hydraulics, their effectiveness in protecting water quality remains underexplored. The role of colloidal fractions and nanoparticles in the dynamics of contaminants in water infiltration structures must be examined in order to better control the risks of groundwater contamination. This study aims to address this by investigating TMEs in two sites.

The critical zone concept, originally applied to natural environments, must be adapted for urban areas where human activities and infrastructure shape biogeochemical processes. This research examines TME behavior in the industrial and residential areas of the Lyon region, which have similar impermeability but different land uses, to assess how these factors influence TME distribution. Initially, stormwater runoff from both sites is broadly characterized, identifying TMEs in total and dissolved forms. This screening helps determine potential environmental risks and differences in pollution loads between industrial and residential sites. By comparing total and dissolved TME concentrations, we can assess whether these elements are bound to particles or remain in the dissolved phase, impacting their mobility and environmental risks.

Using ultrafiltration, the study further explores how TMEs are transported by separating them into different size fractions: particulate (>0.45 µm), colloidal (0.45 µm – 3 kDa), and dissolved (<3 kDa) phases. Special attention is given to the colloidal phase, which plays a critical role in adsorbing and stabilizing contaminants (Sen and Khilar, 2006). Due to their small size and large surface area, colloids are key vectors for contaminant mobility, directly influencing the fate of pollutants in urban environments.

This research contributes to the urban critical zone concept by examining TME behavior across different land uses and size fractions. It fosters interdisciplinary dialogue by addressing biogeochemical processes in urban environments and their interaction with human activities. By evaluating both total concentrations and size distribution, the study provides a comprehensive understanding of TME behavior in urban runoff, advancing efforts to mitigate environmental impacts in sustainable urban development. Through its focus on pollutant fluxes and contaminant distribution, this work supports a systemic approach to managing urban stormwater and improving water quality.

References :

Makepeace, D. K., Smith, D. W., & Stanley, S. J. (1995). Urban stormwater quality: summary of contaminant data. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 25(2), 93-139.

Sen, T. K., et Khilar, K. C., 2006, Review on subsurface colloids and colloid-associated contaminant transport in saturated porous media. Advances in colloid and interface science, 119(2-3), 71-96.

 

 

How to cite: Potreau, S., Blanc, D., and Gautier, M.: Characterizing Trace Metal Distribution in Urban Stormwater: Focus on Particulate, Colloidal, and Dissolved Fractions in the Lyon Metropole, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17176, 2025.

EGU25-17816 | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Monitoring evapotranspiration on a green roof : feedback from two summer periods.  

David Ramier and Fabrice Rodriguez

The greening of cities has become a major component of current urban development policies. This greening is taking new and variable forms, and is increasingly associated with rainwater management techniques. This vegetated surfaces increase can potentially encourage evapotranspiration. Increasing this process has a twofold advantage. On the one hand, It provides stormwater runoff reduction benefits and, on the other, it promotes cooling in the urban environment. However, in order to better quantify and optimise evapotranspiration, it is necessary to be able to assess it for different kind of urban surfaces. In an urban environment, where surfaces are very heterogeneous, it is therefore necessary to have continuous measurements, over the long term (several seasons) and, if possible, on different types of surfaces with relatively small areas: just a few dozen m².

In order to document the capacity of urban vegetated surfaces to evapotranspire, a study carried out in 2022 and 2023 on a green roof, emblematic of urban greening solutions, tested the Eddy Covariance (EC), energy budget closure (EB) and a transpiration chamber (Ch) methods for measuring evapotranspiration on this type of surface and continuously estimated the evapotranspiration of this roof. Moreover, with the aim of eventually being able to compare the evapotranspiration of different urban vegetated  surfaces, we also looked at the evaporative fraction in relation to water availability and net radiation.

The results show that EB method tends to overestimate evapotranspiration in relation to the Eddy Covariance, whereas Ch tends to underestimate it. The evaporative fraction of this green roof is generally quite low, averaging 0.2, but can exceed 0.5 on some days. This evaporative fraction is also highly variable over the measurement period.

This shows that for this type of vegetated surface, their capacity to use the energy available for evapotranspiration is generally quite low and not constant. While a higher water content favours high evaporative fractions, this is not always sufficient. Average net radiation of at least 300W.m-2 also seems necessary. If these conditions are met, there must also be other conditions favourable to evapotranspiration, not observed here, but linked to the physiology of the vegetation.

How to cite: Ramier, D. and Rodriguez, F.: Monitoring evapotranspiration on a green roof : feedback from two summer periods. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17816, 2025.

EGU25-19030 | Posters on site | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Reactivity of inorganic sorbents in wetland conditions for organic micropollutant removal 

Martina Vítková, Adam Sochacki, Barbora Böserle Hudcová, Natalia Donoso, Sylvie Kříženecká, and Jan Vymazal

The variety of contaminants entering the environment is constantly expanding. Their amounts, properties, and behaviour are highly individual, including their ability or rate of degradation, affinity for sorbents, etc. Constructed wetlands represent nature-based solutions, which have proven to be efficient for wastewater treatment and elimination of some of the emerging micropollutants. However, the current systems are not designed for the removal of slowly degradable compounds. On the other hand, reactive surfaces of Fe-based or Mn-based sorbents can be favourable for sorption of persistent pollutants or enhanced degradation of more complex organic compounds. Therefore, the main idea of our research is to increase the retention and degradation potential of the constructed wetlands for the compounds of emerging concern using appropriate inorganic amendments. During the development, optimisation, and testing of a model wetland treatment system we focused on the reactive solid-water(-plant) interfaces using the column experimental scale, both planted and unplanted. Iron hydroxides or manganese oxides were applied as amendments. Experimental vertical flow constructed wetlands, saturated and unsaturated, were supplied with artificial domestic wastewater containing 31 organic micropollutants at concentrations of 10 or 50 µg/L. The results showed that under unsaturated conditions, constructed wetlands exhibited total organic micropollutant removal ranging from 93 to 95%. Under saturated conditions, the total removal was lower: 63%, 61%, and 77% for the variants with sand, Mn oxides, and Fe hydroxides, respectively. Compared to sand-based wetlands, Fe and Mn amendments significantly enhanced compound removal under saturated and unsaturated conditions. In addition to pollutant removal efficiency, solid phase transformations under the given conditions were investigated using X-ray diffraction analysis and scanning electron microscopy combined with elemental analyses. Overall, investigating the reactive interface of inorganic sorbents in constructed wetland conditions is essential for understanding the underlying mechanisms and optimising the amendment use for appropriate stimulation of abiotic and biotic processes.

How to cite: Vítková, M., Sochacki, A., Böserle Hudcová, B., Donoso, N., Kříženecká, S., and Vymazal, J.: Reactivity of inorganic sorbents in wetland conditions for organic micropollutant removal, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19030, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19030, 2025.

EGU25-19071 | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Fate of emerging organic contaminants in the hyporheic zone of an anthropogenically impacted stream 

Edinsson Muñoz-Vega, Mathias Bockstiegel, Mohammad Sajjad Abdighahroudi, Kai Ihle, Juan Carlos Richard-Cerda, Carolin Bertold, Minyi Yin, Marcel Reusing, Holger Lutze, Christoph Schüth, and Stephan Schulz

Rivers and streams worldwide are increasingly impacted by emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) as a result of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents discharges and human and industrial activities. Within this context, the hyporheic zone (HZ), which is the interface between surface water and groundwater, is often regarded as a critical compartment for EOCs attenuation. This is due to processes such as sorption onto soil organic and mineral phases, as well as biotransformation mediated by the diverse microbial communities present in such environments. However, the distinction between these two attenuation pathways is frequently hindered by the highly variable hydrochemical conditions encountered in field studies. To address this issue, we conducted a series of laboratory experiments designed to replicate the natural conditions of the HZ of a heavily polluted stream in the Hessian Ried, Germany.

The experimental setup consisted of a set of three different column experiments, each performed in triplicate. To achieve this, we collected nine undisturbed soil cores of 25 cm from the riverbed of the Landgraben, a stream impacted for decades by industrial and domestic WWTP effluents. The experiments differed in the feeding solution. For the first set of columns, we used real river water, collected every two weeks, stored refrigerated and replenished every three days to avoid changes in chemical composition. For the second group we spiked the inflow water with a cocktail of five pesticides not detected in the river water but commonly used in the area for pest control, to investigate their fate in the HZ. Finally, for the last set of triplicates, we used tap water free of EOCs as inflow water to characterize desorption processes. Samples were regularly collected from the inflows and outflows of all columns to generate breakthrough curves of EOCs over a total duration of 300 pore volumes, with flow rates adjusted to replicate residence times observed in the field. A total of 28 EOCs were analyzed using LC-MS/MS, covering a broad spectrum of physicochemical properties, including ionic speciation and polarity, which are key factors controlling the fate of EOCs in soils.

Our results showed that many of the analyzed compounds are highly mobile in the HZ and not attenuated. This is attributed in some cases to high polarity (e.g., candesartan, gabapentin, hydrochlorothiazide, valsartan acid) and in others to the saturation of sorption sites (e.g., metoprolol, sitagliptin). Only a few compounds exhibited evidence of transformation (e.g., diatrizoic acid, iopromide, sulfamethoxazole). Compounds with medium polarity and with negative or neutral speciation were slightly attenuated, primarily through sorption (e.g., carbamazepine, diclofenac, irbesartan, 1,2,3-benzotriazole). Overall, our findings suggest that the HZ of a long-term polluted stream is capable of mitigating only a small fraction of EOCs, posing a significant risk to surface and groundwater bodies.

How to cite: Muñoz-Vega, E., Bockstiegel, M., Abdighahroudi, M. S., Ihle, K., Richard-Cerda, J. C., Bertold, C., Yin, M., Reusing, M., Lutze, H., Schüth, C., and Schulz, S.: Fate of emerging organic contaminants in the hyporheic zone of an anthropogenically impacted stream, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19071, 2025.

Soil aquifer treatment (SAT) using secondary treated wastewater effluent (STWW) as infiltration feedwater is an increasingly discussed measure to mitigate groundwater level decline. It may also act as an additional treatment stage for the attenuation of emerging organic compounds (EOCs), e.g., pharmaceuticals and industrial agents, which STWW effluent still contains in varying amounts. Hence, understanding the behaviour of EOCs in SAT systems, both in the unsaturated and saturated zone, prior to implementation and operation, is of high importance. For that purpose, sand tank experiments are one possibility to study under controlled conditions the attenuation potential of natural and amended soils with e.g., permeable reactive layers.

Therefore, we designed and built novel large-scale sand tank experiments, consisting of three individual, L-shaped, tanks made from HDPE (Horovitz et al., 2024). All three tanks were packed with fine-medium quartz sand. The vertical part acts as unsaturated infiltration zone. The horizontal part consists of a saturated zone with continuously flowing groundwater in the lower part and an unsaturated zone above. The infiltration zone of two tanks were amended with one reactive layer each (biochar and compost, both mixed with the fine-medium quartz sand). The third tank acted as reference without reactive layer. Native groundwater from LNEC campus was used for continuously laterally flowing groundwater. The feedwater was a real STWW effluent from a Lisbon wastewater treatment plant. The groundwater flow rate was set to achieve a retention time of approx. one month for the STWW inside the tanks. In total, six infiltrations were performed over approx. eight months. Our setup allowed us to take samples both in the unsaturated and saturated zones. Additionally, the tanks are equipped with high-resolution oxidation-reduction potential sensors, both in vertical and horizontal direction, being an important parameter for the degradation of some EOCs.

Our results showed that for the tank setup, amended with a biochar layer, all 22 EOCs were fully attenuated, while for the tank containing a compost layer 14 EOCs (1,2,3-Benzatriazole, 4,5-Methyl Benzatriazole, Amisulpride, Atenolol, Carbamazepine, Cetirizine, Ciprofloxacin, Diclofenac, Hydrochlorothiazide, Iopromide, Irbesartan, Metoprolol, Sitagliptin, and Venlafaxine) were attenuated with varying percentage. In contrast, for the reference tank, only a decrease of eight EOCs (Amisulpride, Atenolol, Ciprofloxacin, Iopromide, Irbesartan, Metoprolol, Sitagliptin, and Venlaflaxine) could be observed.

Our results show that the implementation of tailored permeable reactive layers in SAT systems could substantially improve the quality of STWW during infiltration regarding EOCs, leading to a greater confidence in applying this technology.

References

Horovitz, M., Muñoz-Vega, E., Knöller, K., Leitão, T.E., Schüth, C., & Schulz, S., (2024). Infiltration of secondary treated wastewater into an oxic aquifer: Hydrochemical insights from a large-scale sand tank experiment. Water Research 267, 122542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2024.122542

How to cite: Horovitz, M., Muñoz-Vega, E., Abdighahroudi, M. S., Leitão, T. E., Schüth, C., and Schulz, S.: Behaviour of 22 emerging organic compounds from secondary treated wastewater effluent in soil aquifer treatment – Assessing the attenuation potential of biochar and compost reactive layers in a large-scale sand tank experiment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20034, 2025.

EGU25-21779 | Orals | ITS3.15/HS12.3

Exploring Critical Zone Processes for Sustainable Water Management: The Case of Circus Lake Park, Bucharest 

Oana Luca, Irina Moraru, Traian Ghibus, Omid Zonouzi, Mukupa Miller, Radu Gogu, Alexandru Gheorghe, and Vlad Demianovschi

Urban areas face increasing environmental challenges from rapid urbanization, climate change and anthropogenic pressures. These disrupt natural hydrological cycles, leading to critical problems such as rise and fall groundwater levels with a series of chained consequences. Our study applies a critical urban zone approach (Bucharest district) to start within a framework of an accurate urban groundwater balance to analyze biophysical and chemical processes in the urban environment, focusing on the Circus Lake Park in Bucharest. The site presents a complex setting shaped by decades of anthropogenic alterations, including extensive excavation, infrastructure development, and impervious surfaces that disrupt natural hydrological processes. Climate-induced changes in precipitation patterns combined with the infrastructure modifications exacerbate these challenges, reducing groundwater recharge and lowering the lake levels. By incorporating alternative water resource (AWR) solutions, our study aims to establish sustainable water management strategies tailored to the existing urban ecosystem.

The methodology integrates field experiments, laboratory analysis, and hydrological modeling to address water scarcity and pollution challenges. Infiltration tests using several methods quantified the hydraulic conductivity of heterogeneous anthropogenic urban unsaturated zone. Chemical and biological analyses of water samples from rainfall, and street runoff assessed parameters such as dissolved oxygen, heavy metals, and nutrient concentrations. An experimental filtration system comprising sand, gravel, and activated charcoal layers was designed and tested to evaluate its efficacy in treating stormwater. Hydrological and hydrogeological models were developed to simulate rainfall, runoff, and infiltration processes, enabling the assessment of aquifer recharge potential.

The results underscore the value of the critical zone approach in addressing the multifaceted challenges of urban water management. The findings reveal the effectiveness of integrating scientific methodologies with practical interventions to mitigate the impacts of urbanization and climate change. Nature-based solutions, such as stormwater filtration and aquifer recharge, demonstrate their effectiveness in adapting urban ecosystems to these pressures. Circus Lake Park serves as a replicable model, providing a blueprint for cities around the world to implement sustainable water management strategies. Beyond technical interventions, this study emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and stakeholder involvement. Local authorities, water operators and community organizations were actively involved, ensuring that the proposed solutions align with social, economic and environmental priorities. This collaborative approach fosters wider acceptance and ensures long-term sustainability of interventions.

The research highlights the critical importance of integrating diverse scientific, technical, and social perspectives to advance urban sustainability frameworks. By linking theoretical insights with practical applications, this study demonstrates how critical zone processes can contribute to adaptive and efficient water resource management in urban contexts. Future research should focus on scaling these strategies and evaluating their long-term ecological and social impacts to further inform global urban resilience efforts.

How to cite: Luca, O., Moraru, I., Ghibus, T., Zonouzi, O., Miller, M., Gogu, R., Gheorghe, A., and Demianovschi, V.: Exploring Critical Zone Processes for Sustainable Water Management: The Case of Circus Lake Park, Bucharest, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21779, 2025.

EGU25-214 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Lake sediments act as a sink of microplastics in the High-Altitude Himalayan Dal Lake, India 

Jaffer Yousuf Dar, Raj Mukhopadhyay, Irfan Bhat, Satyendra Kumar, and Rajender Kumar Yadav

Plastic debris is a growing concern in freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This study investigates the presence, characterization, and quantification of microplastics (MPs) in Dal Lake, a known urban Himalayan lake in India, located at an altitude of 1583 meters and covering 24 km². The analysis revealed MP concentrations in surface water ranging from 140±20 to 846±136 particles per liter, and in sediments, from 2616±1016 to 12966±496 particles per kilogram (dry weight). The higher accumulation of MPs in sediments suggests they act as a long-term sink for these particles, trapping them over time. The MPs found exhibited three main morphologies: fragments, films, and lines, indicating the breakdown of larger plastic debris. Around 90% of the detected MPs in both water and sediment were smaller than 500 µm, with polyethylene and polypropylene being the most common polymers identified. Pollution levels were assessed using a count-based index, which indicated higher contamination in sediments compared to surface water, with sediment contamination being approximately 2.05 times higher. This places the lake in hazard category II, suggesting significant ecological risks. The primary sources of MP pollution in Dal Lake appear to be domestic waste, tourism activities, and urban runoff, all of which introduce plastics into the water system. This study highlights the widespread and pervasive nature of MP pollution in high-altitude freshwater ecosystems like Dal Lake.

How to cite: Yousuf Dar, J., Mukhopadhyay, R., Bhat, I., Kumar, S., and Yadav, R. K.: Lake sediments act as a sink of microplastics in the High-Altitude Himalayan Dal Lake, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-214, 2025.

EGU25-461 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Critical reassessment of microplastic detection methodologies and abundances in the marine environment 

Janika Reineccius, Juliana A. Ivar do Sul, and Joanna J. Waniek

Microplastics (MPs) pose a growing concern in the marine environment, but their global prevalence remains largely unknown due to the absence of precise and standardized detection methods. This is because current techniques used to quantify MPs in marine field studies can feature methodological inaccuracies or limitations, which collectively prevent a global and reliable MP pollution status for being drawn. These inaccuracies are related, for example, to the exclusion of particle sizes within the broad range of MP size intervals or to the level of identification of polymer types by using spectroscopic analysis or specific extraction methods. Once these inaccuracies have been considered and addressed, the reported MP abundances can be recalculated. This resulted in a significant underestimation of the global pollution levels regarding MPs in the 10–5000 µm size range. MP abundances are then shown to be up to 15 times higher than in the data presented in the public domain in marine waters and up to 11 times higher within marine sediments. This study emphasizes the critical need for global and integrated MP studies and encourages current and future MP researchers to adopt standardized protocols for MP analysis to avoid misleading outcomes.

How to cite: Reineccius, J., Ivar do Sul, J. A., and Waniek, J. J.: Critical reassessment of microplastic detection methodologies and abundances in the marine environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-461, 2025.

EGU25-2452 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Two sides of the same coin: Weathering differences of plastic fragments in coastal environments around the globe 

Bo Hu, Huahong Shi, Mui-Choo Jong, João Frias, and Lei Su

Plastic debris in coastal environments usually undergo weathering due to various environmental conditions. However, the weathering effects on exposed and shaded sides of the same plastics are underexplored. In this study, 1573 plastic fragments were collected from 15 coastal sites worldwide between December 2021 and December 2022, and weathering experiments were conducted outdoors. The field investigation showed significant two-sided weathering differences of plastic fragments. The weathering morphology included biota, cracks, delamination, discoloration, etc. The weathering degree was assessed with three metrics, i.e., line density (0–58 mm/mm2), surface loss (0–92 %), and texture index (0−2). The 3D magnitudes of these three metrics revealed the two-sided weathering differences of plastic fragments. Specifically, 43 % of the samples had magnitudes > 5, indicating significant differences. Outdoor simulations suggested that sun-exposed sides developed more cracks, pores, and bubbles, while shaded sides remained smoother. After 12 months, the line density increased from 2.85 to 9.23 mm/mm² for polyethylene (PE) and 4.16–8.47 mm/mm² for polypropylene (PP) (p < 0.05). The carbonyl index increased from 0.50 to 1.70 (PE), from 0.18 to 1.10 (PP), and from 0.45 to 1.57 (polyvinyl chloride). This increase indicated oxidative degradation on sun-exposed sides. Our results highlighted the uneven degree of weathering on both sides of the same plastic fragment due to different environmental factors. The study provided critical insights for creating more accurate models to predict plastic degradation, which will help inform global strategies to reduce plastic pollution.

How to cite: Hu, B., Shi, H., Jong, M.-C., Frias, J., and Su, L.: Two sides of the same coin: Weathering differences of plastic fragments in coastal environments around the globe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2452, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2452, 2025.

EGU25-3706 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Advancing Plastic Pollution Monitoring Through Enhanced Protocols and Deep Learning: applicability and effectiveness in real-world scenarios (Le Stang, France) 

Sébastien Rohais, Camille Lacroix, Kevin Tallec, Denis Guillaume, Abdelaziz Snoussi, and Philippe Kopecny

Plastic pollution is pervasive across all environmental compartments, from mountain ranges to abyssal plains. Among these, beaches—and particularly the wrack line—are recognized as critical sites for monitoring plastic pollution. Established programs, such as the French monitoring program (RNS-mP-P), track meso- and large microplastics along beaches. Building on these efforts in the context of the Free LitterAT Interreg project, this study aims to develop a complementary tool to accelerate and expand data acquisition and formatting for monitoring plastic pollution.

A new acquisition protocol was firstly designed. A survey site was selected in Brittany, France (Le Stang), where Cedre has been conducting active monitoring since 2018. Data were collected between January 2023 and July 2024, with seasonal surveys yielding a comprehensive dataset of 2,169 measurements. The study site comprised a 100-meter stretch along the wrack line, examined using quadrats of 20x20 cm, 40x40 cm, and 80x80 cm, spaced at 1-meter intervals. Photos were captured using a dedicated device designed for consistent replication over time and space.

Then, an integrated processing phase evaluated human factor influences and database representativeness to support deep learning solutions. Photos were interpreted and meso- to large microplastics were classified into five categories: Fiber, Film, Foam, Fragment, and Pellet. Three independent users labeled the data, organizing it into training and validation datasets.

Thirdly, a convolutional neural network (U-Net) was employed to analyze the dataset. A tailored training, testing, and validation strategy was established to optimize the use of the unique dataset.

Results were finally benchmarked against the existing RNS-mP-P networks for microplastic monitoring, and recommendations were proposed. For example, the 20x20 cm quadrat setup, spaced every 2–5 meters, emerged as the best compromise for ease and efficiency in the study context.

This proof-of-concept demonstrates the feasibility of integrating advanced methodologies into existing monitoring frameworks. The approach not only enhances data acquisition but also facilitates large-scale implementation through professional and citizen science initiatives.

The findings underscore the potential of combining field monitoring protocols with machine learning to create effective, scalable strategies for environmental plastic pollution monitoring.

How to cite: Rohais, S., Lacroix, C., Tallec, K., Guillaume, D., Snoussi, A., and Kopecny, P.: Advancing Plastic Pollution Monitoring Through Enhanced Protocols and Deep Learning: applicability and effectiveness in real-world scenarios (Le Stang, France), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3706, 2025.

EGU25-4026 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

What rejecting the Anthropocene means for the microplastic research community? 

Juliana Assunção Ivar do Sul, Janika Reineccius, and Joanna Waniek

It is well known that the Anthropocene Working Group proposed the addition of the Anthropocene as a time interval to the International Chronostratigraphic Chart (ICC). Despite the existence of a substantial body of evidence pointing to the end of the Holocene epoch and the subsequent entry into the Anthropocene, the proposal was formally rejected by a vote of the members of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy in March 2024. Following this rejection, a significant number of studies have continued to be published within the Anthropocene, and the scientific community has continued to use the term. Microplastics which have been in manufacture since around the mid-20th century, are regarded as potential indicators of the Anthropocene strata. Microplastics, which have been manufactured since around the mid-20th century, are considered potential indicators of Anthropocene stratigraphy. Microplastics are characterised by their small size (< 5 mm) and variability in physical and chemical properties. This includes variations in size, shape, colour, polymer type and chemical additives. They are characterised by a long lifespan in ecosystems, which is in line with other novel materials (e.g. concrete) and chemical compounds (e.g. persistent organic pollutants) that are recognised markers in the context of the Anthropocene. However, it is not straightforward to integrate microplastics with other established markers in the context of the Anthropocene. For example, the identification of microplastics within sedimentary layers is challenging. Visual analysis alone has been shown to consistently overestimate the number of microplastics, as it is difficult to distinguish them from natural particles. When spectroscopic techniques (e.g. FTIR, Raman) are used, identification is dependent on the libraries used for identification. Potential post-burial changes in polymer chemistry, for example, can lead to misinterpretation of results. In general, the failure of microplastic researchers to consider the taphonomic processes that control the pathways of microplastics after they reach the sea, as well as the diagenetic processes after their deposition and burial, leads to a simplification of the expected profiles of microplastics in sediments. Thus, there are a number of issues that remain to be explored within the microplastics-Anthropocene issue. Taken together, they have the potential to improve our understanding of the use of microplastics as markers of the Anthropocene. The rejection of the Anthropocene for formal inclusion in the ICC provides an opportunity for the microplastics scientific community to explore the issue in depth and ultimately accept microplastics as indicators of the Anthropocene when it is reconsidered for formal inclusion in the geological time scale.

How to cite: Assunção Ivar do Sul, J., Reineccius, J., and Waniek, J.: What rejecting the Anthropocene means for the microplastic research community?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4026, 2025.

EGU25-4217 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Numerical Modelling of the Concentration of Microplastics in Lakes and Rivers in Kazakhstan 

María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero, Natalya S. Salikova, Lyudmila A. Makeyeva, Zinep M. Shaimerdenova, and Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri

This research presents a detailed numerical modeling study focused on estimating the concentration of microplastics (MPs) in freshwater ecosystems. The research covers three lakes (Kopa, Zerendinskoye, and Borovoe) and the Yesil River, applying differential equations to model the spatial distribution and seasonal variations of MP concentrations. The methodology integrates field survey data collected during three different seasons (spring, summer, and autumn) from both sediment and water samples.

The MP concentrations were found to follow an exponential decay pattern from the shore toward the center of the lakes, with higher concentrations near the shoreline. The modeling framework is calibrated using regression analysis, which provides the best-fit parameters for the distance-concentration curves. The study employs sensitivity analysis to justify the decay coefficient, resulting in a selected value of k = 0.09. Model performance is assessed using statistical metrics such as the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²), ensuring accuracy in predicting MP concentrations across different environ-mental compartments.

The findings highlight significant seasonal and spatial variations in MP concentrations, emphasizing the need for comprehensive monitoring. The study's results contribute valuable insights into the environmental behavior of MPs in freshwater systems and support efforts to develop effective management strategies to mitigate pollution.

How to cite: Rodrigo-Clavero, M.-E., Salikova, N. S., Makeyeva, L. A., Shaimerdenova, Z. M., and Rodrigo-Ilarri, J.: Numerical Modelling of the Concentration of Microplastics in Lakes and Rivers in Kazakhstan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4217, 2025.

EGU25-4267 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Measuring the Transport of Floating Plastic Debris Using Vessel-Based Optical Data and Artificial Intelligence 

Mattia Romero, Yannick Pham, Laura Gómez Navarro, Robin de Vries, and Bruno Sainte-Rose

The North Pacific Garbage Patch (NPGP) is known for accumulating floating plastic debris, but little is known on the dominating mechanisms that form its spatial heterogeneity in concentration. Submesoscale processes are likely to be the main drivers of such heterogeneity, especially if their effect on transport is object-specific. Dynamics at these spatial scales remain largely unresolved to date in ocean circulation models, therefore, current studies have to rely on in-situ measurements. The authors present a new method that measures floating plastic debris’ horizontal transport over small scales along vessels’ trajectories. The method applies particle tracking velocimetry on objects detected by an optical artificial intelligence algorithm during The Ocean Cleanup’s campaigns. Given the method’s sensitivity to the vessel’s movement, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to estimate object position errors with and without the presence of waves. The same method is applied to overlapping samples of drone-based optical data and the results are compared across measuring devices. Measurement accuracy depends on factors such as sea state, object distance from the vessel, and tracking duration. A first application on a subset of manually classified objects is presented. The ability to estimate floating plastic debris’ transport from in-situ measurements, combined with the collection of meteorological and oceanographic data, will likely gather insightful information on object-specific small scale dynamics in the region of interest. This is not only valuable for research purposes, but essential to assess and improve clean-up efforts.

How to cite: Romero, M., Pham, Y., Gómez Navarro, L., de Vries, R., and Sainte-Rose, B.: Measuring the Transport of Floating Plastic Debris Using Vessel-Based Optical Data and Artificial Intelligence, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4267, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4267, 2025.

EGU25-4361 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Quantifying uncertainties in visual observations of floating riverine plastic 

Paul Vriend, Thijs Bosker, Yvette Mellink, Frank Collas, Felipe Moscoso Cruz, Nadieh Kamp, Sylvia Drok, Martina G. Vijver, and Tim H. M. van Emmerik

Accurate and reliable monitoring data are crucial for the design of effective reduction and mitigation strategies for riverine macroplastic (>0.5 cm) pollution. One common approach to collect monitoring data is the visual observation method, where floating plastics are counted from bridges to estimate plastic flux. However, this method lacks robust uncertainty analyses, resulting in suboptimal monitoring strategies and unknown error margins. The goal of this study was to quantify these uncertainties and develop a practical workflow to optimize monitoring strategies applicable across different watersheds. Four key design elements that contribute to uncertainty are: cross-sectional coverage, observation time, observation frequency, and recovery. Through a case-study on the Dutch Rhine-Meuse delta we show how these uncertainties can be quantified, and how these insights can be used to optimize a monitoring strategy for a given monitoring goal. By improving the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring protocols, these insights enhance data quality and reliability, ultimately supporting efforts to mitigate the environmental impacts of macroplastic pollution.

How to cite: Vriend, P., Bosker, T., Mellink, Y., Collas, F., Moscoso Cruz, F., Kamp, N., Drok, S., Vijver, M. G., and van Emmerik, T. H. M.: Quantifying uncertainties in visual observations of floating riverine plastic, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4361, 2025.

EGU25-4400 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Monitoring plastic debris in urban stormwater: fluxes and management issues 

Romain Tramoy, Bruno Tassin, Lauriane Ledieu, Rachid Dris, and Johnny Gasperi

Sewage systems may be the preferred pathways for plastic debris from urban areas to the natural environment during wet periods. Some French local authorities are trying to prevent this leakage into the environment by equipping combined sewer (mixed of stormwater and wastewater) or stormwater outfalls (separate sewer systems) with nets. More than a curative solution, these devices represent a unique opportunity to monitoring urban litter, including plastic debris, as close as possible to their source of emission, i.e., urban areas. Since 2020, nets are being (or have been) in used in French cities. In several cities, anthropogenic litter from the nets was collected, washed, air dried and sorted according to the J-list classification (Fleet et al., 2021), which is the updated European classification first developed for marine and riverine litter (MSFD Technical Subgroup on Marine Litter, 2013). Results show that urban waters are a major source of macroplastics for rivers, with mass flows per capita within the orders of magnitude of those estimated in French rivers (1-10 g/cap/yr). In addition, mass flows and items categories differ relative to the type of sewage systems, land use and local specificities. In combined sewer, wipes are by far the main waste found in nets often followed by tobacco-related products and sweet wrappers from roadways. In stormwater run-off, tobacco-related products and sweet wrappers are the main categories by numb, but bottles (in metal, glass and plastic) rank TOP 5 by mass. Acquiring those data is a very harsh task and a dedicated technical platform is under development to extend monitoring at the national level (or beyond) over the long term.

 

How to cite: Tramoy, R., Tassin, B., Ledieu, L., Dris, R., and Gasperi, J.: Monitoring plastic debris in urban stormwater: fluxes and management issues, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4400, 2025.

EGU25-5179 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Micro- and Mesoplastic Monitoring on Beaches: Understanding Seasonal and Spatial Distribution Patterns 

Inga Retike, Inta Dimante-Deimantovica, Jānis Bikše, Maija Viska, Māris Skudra, Anda Prokopovica, Sanda Svipsta, and Juris Aigars

Despite growing research on microplastic contamination in beach environments, the factors influencing pollution distribution remain poorly understood. This study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by investigating microplastic pollution across 11 Latvian marine beaches (northeastern Europe). The study area experiences a four-season climate and is influenced by the Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea. Beaches were selected based on prior research (Dimante-Deimantovica et al., 2023), and data collection took place from autumn 2022 to summer 2023.

Microplastic samples were collected seasonally - autumn, winter, spring, and summer - across three distinct 100 m transects at each beach: the waterline (closest to the sea), the mid-section (between the waterline and vegetation), and the area in front of vegetation or bluffs (farthest from the sea). The results revealed seasonal variations in microplastic abundance, with higher pollution levels observed in autumn and winter compared to spring and summer. Furthermore, plastic particle distribution was uneven across the transects, with vegetation occasionally acting as a barrier for microplastic accumulation. Rounded particles are wind-transported and gather near vegetation, while longer particles accumulate already in the first transect near the sea. This study emphasizes the importance of year-round sampling to ensure accurate pollution assessments in environments with pronounced seasonality. Considering seasonal variability is also crucial when interpreting and comparing existing monitoring results.

The research is supported by GRANDE-U project “Groundwater Resilience Assessment through iNtegrated Data Exploration for Ukraine” (NSF Awards No. 2409395/2409396) and Latvian Environmental Protection Fund project No. 1-08/37/2022.

Reference: Dimante-Deimantovica, Inta et al. (2023) The baseline for micro- and mesoplastic pollution in open Baltic Sea and Gulf of Riga beach. Frontiers in Marine Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1251068 

How to cite: Retike, I., Dimante-Deimantovica, I., Bikše, J., Viska, M., Skudra, M., Prokopovica, A., Svipsta, S., and Aigars, J.: Micro- and Mesoplastic Monitoring on Beaches: Understanding Seasonal and Spatial Distribution Patterns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5179, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5179, 2025.

EGU25-6652 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Transport and Fluxes of Microplastics to Deep-Sea Sediments via Turbidity Currents through the Congo Canyon 

Florian Pohl, Lars Hildebrandt, Megan L. Baker, Peter J. Talling, Joris T. Eggenhuisen, Sophie Hage, Sean C. Ruffell, Daniel Proefrock, Ricardo Silva Jacinto, Maarten S. Heijnen, Stephen M. Simmons, and Martin Hasenhündl

Plastic pollution is a growing global concern, with significant implications for marine ecosystems. While microplastics (<5 mm) are abundant in shallow marine environments, their transport pathways and fluxes to the deep sea remain poorly understood. Submarine canyons, such as the Congo Canyon off West Africa, act as major conduits for sediment and associated pollutants, including plastics, to the deep-sea environment. These canyons are frequently flushed by fast gravity-driven sediment flows called turbidity currents capable of transporting vast quantities of material over distances of >1,000 km. These are the longest sediment flows yet measured in action on Earth, and they eroded and carried a mass of terrestrial organic carbon similar to that buried each year in the global oceans. However, despite their significance in natural particle transport, it remains unclear how efficiently they carry anthropogenic particles, such as microplastics, to the deep sea.

This study presents the first dataset that directly measures microplastics transported by turbidity currents. A sediment trap moored 156 km offshore in the Congo Canyon, at a water depth of 2,172 m, captured sediments from eight (0.5-1 m/s) turbidity current events occurring between September and December 2019. Microplastics were extracted and analyzed for their number, size, shape, and polymer composition using Laser Direct Infrared (LDIR) imaging. Microplastic flux estimates were calculated to quantify the transport capability of these flows.

The results demonstrate that turbidity currents are highly efficient in transporting microplastics, with concentrations reaching up to 13,266 particles per kg of sediment. PET (polyethylene terephthalate) and rubber were the most abundant polymer types, likely due to their higher density and resistance to degradation. Variability in microplastic abundance across different flow events appears to be influenced by differences in sediment sources and flow dynamics. Annual fluxes of microplastics transported through the Congo Canyon are estimated to be approximately 50,000 kg, underscoring the significant role of turbidity currents in redistributing microplastics on the deep seafloor. These microplastics may accumulate in canyon floors and distal lobes, forming potential sinks.

This research provides critical insights into the mechanisms governing the deep-sea transport of microplastics and highlights the importance of submarine canyons in global plastic pollution dynamics.

How to cite: Pohl, F., Hildebrandt, L., Baker, M. L., Talling, P. J., Eggenhuisen, J. T., Hage, S., Ruffell, S. C., Proefrock, D., Silva Jacinto, R., Heijnen, M. S., Simmons, S. M., and Hasenhündl, M.: Transport and Fluxes of Microplastics to Deep-Sea Sediments via Turbidity Currents through the Congo Canyon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6652, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6652, 2025.

Understanding the distribution and dynamics of plastic litter in the environment is important but remains underexplored, particularly the resemblance of its transport and deposition to sediment dynamics. The present study examines plastic litter accumulation from a sedimentological perspective, using as case study a part of the northeastern coast of Sicily (southern Italy). The aim is to understand the dynamics responsible for plastic accumulation in the area and identify its sources. To achieve this, the research uses a multidisciplinary approach analyzing meteorological data, aerial imagery and deploying a machine-learning algorithm. The findings indicate that flash floods are the primary contributors to plastic accumulation in this area. Along the coast, there is a spatio-temporal variability in the accumulation patterns, with higher amounts of litter near torrential river mouths after flash floods. Precipitation data show that litter-laden floods could be formed with rainfall values as low as 30 mm if the intensity is high enough. The algorithm revealed that these accumulations show a high dominance of polystyrene, accounting for 72% of the detected litter, followed by 10.2% yellow foam and 9.06% of PET bottles. Based on this composition, the source of plastic is associated with the input from nearby towns through the torrential rivers rather than a maritime origin (e.g. fisheries). This study highlights the importance of considering river floods when investigating the plastic dynamics in the environment, as well as the potential of using drone imagery and machine learning to help address this problem.

How to cite: Oh, J., Leluschko, C., Tholen, C., and Gugliotta, M.: Flash-flood-driven accumulation of plastic on beaches investigated by use of aerial imagery and machine learning: an example from the eastern coast of Sicily, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6667, 2025.

EGU25-7033 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Uncollected Urban Plastic Waste in Bandung: A Geo-Referenced Material Flow Analysis Revealing Spatial Inequalities and Management Challenges 

Giulia Frigo, Claudia Binder, Gregory Giuliani, and Christian Zurbrügg

With an ever-increasing population and growing consumption, plastic waste management has become one of the most challenging global problems. Both mismanagement and illegal dumping pose significant environmental and public health risks, leading to severe issues such as the release of harmful chemicals and heavy metals into the air through burning, and significant ocean pollution from riverine plastic discharge. Indonesia is estimated to be one of the top emitters of riverine plastics and a significant portion of the country’s municipal solid waste is either burned or uncollected. Despite the recognized importance of tackling mismanaged plastic waste, comprehensive data on plastic waste flow remain largely unavailable. This study presents a plastic Material Flow Analysis (MFA) in Bandung, Indonesia, using a bottom-up, geo-referenced approach to tackle the absence of data.

Our methodology involves quantifying the volume of uncollected waste and identifying its specific locations through georeferenced mapping and spatial analysis. The findings reveal that household plastic waste consumption ranges from 14 to 20 kg per capita per year. On average, over 50% of plastic waste is sent to landfills, 20-25% is source-separated and recycled, 12% remains uncollected, and 1-2% is burned. Limited infrastructure and collection capacity result in higher rates of uncollected waste and burning. These mismanaged waste hotspots are often located near riverbanks or open spaces adjacent to households.

Accessibility analysis indicates that areas with higher uncollected waste are farther from waste collection points and lack adequate infrastructure, including roads and transport systems, increasing reliance on informal disposal methods such as burning and dumping. This suggests that mismanaged waste is not only an environmental issue but also a predictor of social inequalities within cities, as affected communities often face poor living conditions and inadequate access to basic services such as clean water. By providing data-driven insights and actionable recommendations, this research contributes to the development of sustainable and equitable waste management strategies in Indonesia. Furthermore, this study tests the utility of applying a bottom-up georeferenced Material Flow Analysis to measure plastic waste flows, contributing to the growing body of research in this field.

How to cite: Frigo, G., Binder, C., Giuliani, G., and Zurbrügg, C.: Uncollected Urban Plastic Waste in Bandung: A Geo-Referenced Material Flow Analysis Revealing Spatial Inequalities and Management Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7033, 2025.

EGU25-7294 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Microplastic Concentration in the Truckee River, United States 

Monica Arienzo, Hannah Lukasik, Rachel Kozloski, Mervin Wright, and Brittany Kruger

Microplastics (MPs) are an emerging contaminant that is found throughout the environment. In this study we sought to quantify and characterize MPs along the Truckee River, located in the western United States. The Truckee River begins in the Sierra Nevada, flows to Lake Tahoe, a lake known for its clarity and pristine water quality and continues to Pyramid Lake. The Truckee River basin is utilized for its drinking water and all-season recreation throughout the watershed. Additionally, the Truckee River system is an important aquatic habitat for endangered and endemic species. For these reasons, assessing the MPs present in this system is essential for determining risks to human and aquatic health.

Samples were taken along the Truckee River starting downstream of Lake Tahoe’s outlet sampling above and below major areas of land use change: urban population centers, wastewater treatment facilities, confluences, and agricultural areas at a total of 6 sampling sites in the fall of 2022 and 8 sampling sites during the spring of 2023. Two seasons were analyzed to capture the low flow (fall) and high flow (spring) discharge periods along the Truckee River. MP results were compared to a variety of spatial data to understand the concentration of MPs in the Truckee River, potential sources of MPs to the river from land use, and whether MP concentrations vary with seasonal flow changes. We show that MP concentrations vary with discharge and number of stormwater drainages. We also show the plastic types reflect commonly used single-use plastics.

How to cite: Arienzo, M., Lukasik, H., Kozloski, R., Wright, M., and Kruger, B.: Microplastic Concentration in the Truckee River, United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7294, 2025.

EGU25-7837 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Comparison of False Positive Case in Coastal Debris Using Deep Learning-Based Object Detection Models 

YeBeen Do, BoRam Kim, YongGil Park, and TaeHoon Kim

Deep learning-based object detection models, such as YOLO and DETR, have been actively studied for monitoring coastal debris. While recent models exhibit minimal differences in quantitative accuracy and performance, the underlying algorithms and methodologies for object detection vary across models. Consequently, detection outcomes can differ based on the type of the debris and the characteristics of the coastal environment. Nonetheless, there is a notable lack of studies that provide a quantitative analysis of these findings. Therefore, this study analyzed the false positives of coastal debris using the YOLOv10 and RT-DETR models to identify the detection characteristics of each model. To ensure comparable performance between the two models, hyperparameters were fine-tuned to achieve a mean Average Precision (mAP) exceeding 0.9. A dataset of approximately 350,000 coastal debris images (sourced from https://www.aihub.or.kr/) was utilized to train both models, with an 8:2 split between training and validation sets. Coastal debris was classified into 11 categories: Glass, Metal, Net, PET Bottle, Plastic Buoy, Plastic ETC, Plastic Buoy of China, Rope, Styrofoam Box, Styrofoam Buoy, and Styrofoam Piece. To analyze the detection characteristics of the trained models, images of coastal with various types of debris were collected using UAVs. False positive objects were classified and systematically analyzed based on the detection results of the collected coastal debris images using the two model. The analysis of false positives revealed that the YOLOv10 model exhibited a 72% false positive rate for Styrofoam buoys, attributed primarily to the significant impact of object color and shape. In the RT-DETR model, false positive rates were observed at 22% for seaweed and 20% for Styrofoam buoys, with object color and surface composition as key contributing factors. Based on these findings, it is recommended to consider the characteristics of the coastal and the distributed debris when selecting a deep learning model for coastal debris detection. Future studies on precise classification of coastal debris and diverse environmental data will facilitate the selection of optimal deep learning models for specific field conditions.

How to cite: Do, Y., Kim, B., Park, Y., and Kim, T.: Comparison of False Positive Case in Coastal Debris Using Deep Learning-Based Object Detection Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7837, 2025.

EGU25-7930 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Comparison of Coastal Debris Interpretability Across Different GSD Levels in Drone Imagery 

BoRam Kim, YeBeen Do, YongGil Park, and TaeHoon Kim

Recent studies have increasingly utilized drones for remote sensing, driven by the widespread distribution of marine debris along coastal areas. When monitoring coastal debris using drones, flight altitude is a critical factor that directly impacts both the quality of image data and the monitoring duration. However, designing monitoring systems based solely on altitude may lead to variations in spatial resolution (GSD) caused by differences in camera specifications across various drone models. Such variations in GSD levels impact the interpretability of debris within the imagery. This study evaluates the interpretability of coastal debris at different GSD levels determined by drone specifications and flight altitudes. Based on prior studies, we collected data at four altitudes by GSD: 18.6 m (GSD: 0.5 cm/pixel), 27.9 m (GSD: 0.75 cm/pixel), 37.2 m (GSD: 1.0 cm/pixel), and 46.5 m (GSD: 1.25 cm/pixel). Coastal debris types were categorized into eight classes, defined based on the top 10 most frequently identified debris types over a four-year period in Korea. We also assessed the quality and interpretability of coastal debris data under varying spatial resolutions of drone imagery, with a particular focus on the eight defined categories. Interpretability was assessed based on the National Image Interpretability Rating Scales (NIIRS), developed by Image Intelligence, which defines four interpretability levels: I (Identify), B (Distinguish), D (Detect), and N (Not Detect). The results demonstrated that the interpretability of coastal debris varies depending on debris type, color, and size with changes in GSD. Furthermore, the detectable categories of debris were defined for each GSD level. Through this study, it is expected to support decisions on appropriate GSD settings and monitoring methods for different coastal debris survey objectives and conditions. The findings may also help in developing national policies for managing coastal debris.

 
 

How to cite: Kim, B., Do, Y., Park, Y., and Kim, T.: Comparison of Coastal Debris Interpretability Across Different GSD Levels in Drone Imagery, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7930, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7930, 2025.

EGU25-8260 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Monitoring Beach Litter in the Mediterranean Sea Using the REMEDIES Mobile App 

Milica Velimirović, Jan Puhar, Annamaria Vujanović, Meivis Struga, Kledisa Çela, Alae-eddine Barkaoui, Antonios Eleftheriou, Andrea Camedda, Sylvain Petit, Marko Petelin, Davide Poletto, Tamara Bizjak, and Andreja Palatinus

The Mediterranean Sea region's coastal zones are densely populated, with 427 million inhabitants, and attract a significant number of tourists. This high level of human activity, combined with the region's topography and inadequate waste management in many countries, has led to the accumulation of plastic debris in the Mediterranean Sea and its connected rivers. Plastic litter is prevalent in the rivers, on beaches, and in the sea, where it accumulates due to the limited flow to the Atlantic Ocean.

This study aims to address the issue of plastic pollution in the Mediterranean Sea by implementing novel approaches for monitoring and detecting marine litter. The primary objective is to report on the monitoring activities of beach macro litter (>2.5 cm) on six beaches in six Mediterranean countries (Italy, Slovenia, Albania, Greece, Morocco, France) during 2024. Seasonal monitoring was conducted together with volunteers four times per year using the REMEDIES mobile app, in accordance with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). This app facilitates the collection of data on the localization, types, quantities, materials, and sources of macro litter on beaches, thereby contributing to efforts to mitigate plastic pollution, protect marine life, and preserve the ecological balance in the Mediterranean region.

This comprehensive approach aims to provide a clearer understanding of the extent and sources of plastic pollution, enabling more effective strategies for its reduction and management. By leveraging technology and international collaboration, this study seeks to make a significant impact on the health of the Mediterranean marine environment.

 Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge financial support from the European Union’s HORIZON EUROPE innovation program for the project REMEDIES awarded under Grant Agreement No. 101093964.

How to cite: Velimirović, M., Puhar, J., Vujanović, A., Struga, M., Çela, K., Barkaoui, A., Eleftheriou, A., Camedda, A., Petit, S., Petelin, M., Poletto, D., Bizjak, T., and Palatinus, A.: Monitoring Beach Litter in the Mediterranean Sea Using the REMEDIES Mobile App, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8260, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8260, 2025.

EGU25-8279 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

A cross-sensor approach for marine litter detection with self-supervised learning 

Emanuele Dalsasso, Marc Russwurm, Christian Donner, Robin de Vries, Michele Volpi, and Devis Tuia

Marine litter is a growing ecologic, economic, and societal concern that must be addressed at a global scale. Floating material aggregates under the effect of oceanic processes to form so-called “windrows”, used as proxies for marine litter. Windrows reach sizes that make them visible for high-resolution optical satellites. Most recently, the availability of labeled datasets of Sentinel-2 images (MARIDA, FloatingObjects) has enabled the use of deep learning for large-scale marine litter monitoring: a segmentation model can be trained in a supervised manner to predict the presence of floating objects. 

However, the temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 (up to 6 days between consecutive acquisitions) limits the operational impact of such tools. Within this context, PlanetScope images can be leveraged to fill the temporal gaps of Sentinel-2 even at a higher spatial resolution: PlanetScope images have a higher spatial resolution than Sentinel-2 (3m vs. 10m) and are acquired daily. Nevertheless, there is a lack of labeled PlanetScope images for the specific purpose of marine debris detection.

To address this gap, we propose a cross-sensor training strategy that allows a model to transfer knowledge from Sentinel-2 to PlanetScope without extra supervision. In particular, we leverage self-supervised learning to pre-train a model that learns a common latent space between the two sensors. Sensor-specific embedding layers project their features into a common U-Net model, itself trained to remove noise from the input images as a self-supervised learning task. Thanks to this self-supervised task, the model learns the semantics of the data without requiring any labels. Next, the model is fine-tuned on labeled Sentinel-2 images, as in most recent deep learning solutions. Since self-supervised cross-sensor pre-training has forced the model to learn a common representation between the two satellite sources, while learning to identify marine litter on Sentinel-2 images, the model co-learns to segment PlanetScope data. Thus, at prediction time, the model can be directly applied to PlanetScope images with excellent results.

We evaluate the performances of the developed model on a manually annotated validation set of PlanetScope images: both visual inspection and quantitative assessment highlight the significant improvement of the proposed model, compared against a fully supervised model trained on Sentinel-2 only. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed pre-training strategy as a promising solution to enable continuous large-scale mapping of marine litter on optical satellites.

How to cite: Dalsasso, E., Russwurm, M., Donner, C., de Vries, R., Volpi, M., and Tuia, D.: A cross-sensor approach for marine litter detection with self-supervised learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8279, 2025.

EGU25-8418 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Remote Sensing for Monitoring Macroplastics in Rivers: The Case of The Sarno River, Italy 

Ashenafi Tadesse Marye, Cristina Caramiello, Dario De Nardi, Domenico Miglino, Gaia Proietti, Khim Cathleen Saddi, Chiara Biscarini, Salvatore Manfreda, Matteo Poggi, and Flavia Tauro

Given the exponential rise in global plastic production and its significant ecological and socio-economic impacts, monitoring macroplastics in rivers has become a central focus of water management efforts. However, standardized monitoring methodologies have not kept pace with the increasing volume of plastic waste entering aquatic systems worldwide. This resulted in a critical shortage of spatially and temporally refined data on macroplastic pollution circulating in inland waters. Recent advancements in remote sensing technologies such as satellites, unmanned aerial systems (UASs) and camera systems coupled with crowd-sourced data and automated detection using machine and deep learning, offer promising opportunities for versatile monitoring solutions. Towards improving monitoring practices, we reviewed emerging remote sensing methods and tools to tackle macroplastic identification in riverine environments. Our investigation highlights that overcoming the challenges of remote sensing-based river macroplastics monitoring requires further efforts to integrate multiple platforms and prioritize long-term monitoring strategies. The RiverWatch project exemplifies these advancements by developing an innovative infrastructure for detecting buoyant plastics in rivers. Utilizing fixed cameras along river networks and mobile cameras, including those operated by citizens via smartphones, RiverWatch employs advanced computer vision algorithms to analyse collected data. Focused on the Sarno River, among the most polluted rivers in Italy, this project harnesses low-cost, adaptable technologies and empowers citizen science through the RiverWatch mobile app, enhancing both spatial and temporal monitoring resolution. The project aligns with the broader goals of offering scalable and harmonized monitoring solutions. Furthermore, it serves as an example of integrating emerging technologies into standardized methodologies, bridging the gap between research advancements and practical applications for global riverine systems.

How to cite: Marye, A. T., Caramiello, C., De Nardi, D., Miglino, D., Proietti, G., Saddi, K. C., Biscarini, C., Manfreda, S., Poggi, M., and Tauro, F.: Remote Sensing for Monitoring Macroplastics in Rivers: The Case of The Sarno River, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8418, 2025.

The extent of aging in microplastics (MPs), widespread across the globe, is a critical factor in evaluating their adverse impacts and behavior. These synthetic particles undergo weathering during dispersion, primarily through photo-oxidation induced by ultraviolet (UV) light exposure, which leads to the formation of oxygen-containing functional groups and increases the potential for fragmentation into smaller-sized MPs. Time-relevant physicochemical changes of MPs can be quantified by the carbonyl index (CI), which serves not only an indicator for assessing the weathering (i.e., aging) extent of MPs, but also provides insights into the sources and/or transport pathways of MPs in different regions and compartments. In the present study, we compared the CI values of two prevalent MP polymers (PE and PP; ≥100 μm in cut-off size) transectionally collected from source regions (wastewater, river water, agricultural soils, and sand beach) to coastal region (inner- and outer-part of Incheon/Kyeonggi (I/K) bay at the Han River mouth), marginal seas (seawater of the Korean South Sea, the East China Sea, and the East Sea), the Northwestern Pacific, and the polar region (Arctic and Antarctic). Their CI values were also compared with those measured under accelerated UV light exposure in laboratory. Riverine and marine floating MPs were collected from the surface water using a manta-net, and all FT-IR spectra were obtained by the same instrument and procedure. PE in agricultural soils showed significantly higher CI values in outer soils than inner soils of greenhouse (0.32±0.16 vs. 0.25±0.16, respectively) (p<0.001). Meanwhile, much lower PE-CIs than those in soils were observed in the influent (0.13±0.10) and effluent (0.12±0.12) of sewage wastewater with no significant difference between the two wastewater (p>0.05), indicating low UV exposure. Compared to the potential two sources, the PE in downstream water of the Han River exhibited much closer CIs (0.33±0.26) to those in neighboring soils than in wastewater, suggesting the importance diffuse source in riverine MPs. Floating PE particles in coastal seawater of I/K bay exhibited the significant separation of their CIs between the inner (0.32±0.17) and outer part (0.04±0.08) of the bay (p<0.001), suggesting different sources in each region. Relatively aged PEs found in inner-bay near river mouth may have a fluvial origin associated with diffuse source, while very fresh PEs in outer-bay off the coast may have originated from the mechanical abrasion of fishing gear and/or greywater. PE-CI found in soil, river water, and inner-bay seawater corresponds to the value observed after approximately 1.2 years of natural sunlight exposure in ambient air. Unlike PE, PP exhibited less distinct separation in its CI across compartments. This is believed to be a result of the more weathering-prone PP breaking apart, leading to the formation of fresh surfaces. Our findings underscore that CI can be effectively utilized to identify the sources and/or dispersion pathways of microplastics. Additional results, including those from marginal and open seas, will be presented separately.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. RS-2024-00356940).

How to cite: Shin, J.-H., Kim, S.-K., and Tian, Z.: Inter-Compartment Comparison of Weathering Extent of Microplastics Using Carbonyl Index and Its Application in Source Identification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8519, 2025.

EGU25-8527 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Methodological Assessment of Macro- and Mesoplastics Pollution in Rivers 

Stephanie B. Oswald, Paul Vriend, Ad M. J. Ragas, Margriet M. Schoor, and Frank P. L. Collas

Globally, plastic pollution in aquatic environments has been considered one of the major contemporary environmental challenges. Even though environmental effects associated with plastic pollution have been largely known, research on plastic concentrations mainly focuses on the marine environment. In recent years, an increasing number of studies reported environmental consequences and concentrations of plastic particles in freshwater systems comparable to those found in marine ecosystems. The observed abundance of plastic particles in ecosystems may be influenced not only by their actual presence in the aquatic environment but also by factors such as sampling methods and identification processes. Facing that, in this study, we assessed the variation in macro- and mesoplastics abundance and composition in the river Rhine collected using a larvae net, a trawl net, and a stow net. Additionally, we highlighted the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats through a SWOT analysis of the used methods for plastic monitoring. During trawl net and stow net monitoring, more unique macro- and mesoplastics categories were found in comparison with simultaneous larvae net monitoring. However, the main categories follow the same patterns among methods, and the relative abundance per category per method slightly differs. Overall, the SWOT analysis pointed towards a better performance of the trawl net for plastic monitoring in the river Rhine. The outcome of the current study can be used to support policymakers, industry, and the scientific community to devise a successful monitoring strategy for macro- and mesoplastics pollution in rivers that best aligns with the specific monitoring goals and the environmental conditions of the target area.

How to cite: Oswald, S. B., Vriend, P., Ragas, A. M. J., Schoor, M. M., and Collas, F. P. L.: Methodological Assessment of Macro- and Mesoplastics Pollution in Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8527, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8527, 2025.

EGU25-8604 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Measuring micro- and nanoplastics in agricultural soils by py-GC/MS-IRMS 

Mariana Vezzone, Reinhard Pucher, Christian Resch, Maria Heiling, and Gerd Dercon

Plastic materials and their associated additives have emerged as critical environmental concerns, particularly within agricultural systems. These materials not only affect soil properties but also pose potential risks of absorption by plants, thereby facilitating the trophic transfer of contaminants. The measurement of nanoplastic particles (NPs) presents challenges due to their small size and low concentrations. While techniques such as micro-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (µFTIR) and micro-RAMAN are commonly used for identifying microparticles, they lack the capability to quantify NPs (<1µm). Many analytical techniques have limited detection limits, which makes it difficult to accurately measure low concentrations of nanoplastic particles (NPs), such as those present in plants. An alternative approach involves labelling or doping micro- and nanoplastics (MNPs) or their additives, enabling their screening and characterization in laboratory environments. This strategy, particularly when combined with stable isotopes, allows for tracing the biological fate of MNPs and their additives in plants and organisms. While this method is currently impractical for field trials due to its cost and analytical challenges, it can be only practically applicable in controlled laboratory experiments. Here we tested extraction methods for determining MNPs by pyrolysis associated with gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (py-GC/MS-IRMS) using polymers labelled with stable isotopes (13C). Detection methods for additives are being refined to identify potential markers for tracking the dynamics of MNPs in the environment. Compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) can provide valuable information on the fate of polymers, polymer additives and the characterisation of the products of plastic decomposition. The poster will present a preliminary comparative evaluation and optimization of extraction and detection methods for MNPs using py-GC/MS-IRMS, focusing on the application of stable isotope-labelled polymers (¹³C). Key findings will demonstrate the challenges and potential of these methodologies for quantifying and characterizing MNPs in laboratory trials.

How to cite: Vezzone, M., Pucher, R., Resch, C., Heiling, M., and Dercon, G.: Measuring micro- and nanoplastics in agricultural soils by py-GC/MS-IRMS, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8604, 2025.

EGU25-9858 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Transport of microplastics driven by turbidity currents developing over bedforms  

teresa serra, Mirco Mancini, Jordi Colomer, Marianna Soler, and Luca Solari

The industry of plastics has grown exponentially over the last 70 years (Williams and Rangel-Buitrago, 2022). Although plastics are appropriately disposed, they have entered the natural environments, becoming an emerging contaminant. Due to both sunlight and mechanical abrasion due to waves and currents, plastic material degrades, breaking down into small plastic particles known as microplastics (MPs) when they have sizes below 5 mm (Sun et al., 2022). MPs are transported in suspension from their sources by rivers reaching the ocean. In their way, they can interact with suspended sediments (Mancini et al., 2023). For example, turbidity currents are mechanisms that transport sediment from continental landscapes into coastal areas and therefore into oceans (Pohl et al., 2020). Turbidity currents can transport particles in suspension due to the turbulence produced at the head of the current (Serra et al., 2025). Therefore, they can also transport MPs in suspension into the ocean. However, the transport capacity of turbidity currents is expected to depend on the granulometry of the bed. In the current work, the transport of MP by turbidity currents developing over beds of different granulometry (from bare soil to pebbles) is under study in a laboratory lock gate set up. Two different types of MPs (fragments and fibers) and two polymers (PET and PVC) were considered. Fibers with diameters of 45 mm and 25 mm and lengths of 5 mm and 3 mm were used. All these conditions accounted for a total of 27 experiments. The horizontal distance up to where MPs were transported was found to increase with the velocity of the gravity current and decrease with the settling velocity of the MPs. The granulometry of the bed had a slight impact on the velocity of the gravity current. However, the shape of the MPs particles impacted on the transport of MPs in such a way that the more elongated the particles (small Corey Shape Factors) resulted in longer distances. This can be caused by the alignment of elongated particles like fibers with the streamlines of the flow. A non-dimensional model of the MP transport as a function of the main parameters such as the granulometry of the bed, the settling velocity of MPs, the height of the water column and the shape of the MP particles (through the Corey Shape Factor) is proposed.

References

Williams, A., Rangel-Buitrago, N. 2022. Marine Pollution Bulletin. 176, 113429.

Sun, J., Zhen, H., Xiang, H., Fan, J. and Jiang, H. 2022. Science of The Total Environment. 838, 156369.

Mancini, M., Serra, T., Colomer, J., Solari, L. 2023. Science of the Total Environment. 890, 164363.

Pohl, F., Eggenhu7isen, J.T., Kane, I.A., Clare, M.A. 2020. Environmental Science and Technology. 54, 4180-4189.

Serra, T., Soler, M., Colomer, J. 2025. Sedimentary Geology. 476, 106802.

How to cite: serra, T., Mancini, M., Colomer, J., Soler, M., and Solari, L.: Transport of microplastics driven by turbidity currents developing over bedforms , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9858, 2025.

EGU25-10271 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Uniting Global Efforts to Combat Microplastic Pollution in Agricultural Soils: A Call for Harmonized Protocols and Collaborative Action 

Maria Heiling, Mariana Vezzone, Chunhua Jiang, Gerd Dercon, and Sergejus Ustinov

Microplastics (MP), defined as plastic particles ranging from 1 to 5000 µm, have become a significant environmental concern due to the drastic increase in plastic use. Agricultural soils are highly susceptible to MP contamination from both direct and indirect sources such as plasticulture, biosolids application, irrigation systems, and atmospheric deposition. These contaminants disrupt soil physical and biological functions, altering porosity, water retention, and microbial communities essential for nutrient cycling, ultimately impairing plant productivity. MPs also act as vectors for associated pollutants, raising concerns about their transfer to the food chain and potential health risks. Despite these critical impacts, agricultural soils have received far less attention than aquatic systems.

The global diversity of soil types poses challenges to the development of standardized protocols for sampling, extraction, and analysis of MPs. Existing methods often lack reproducibility and comparability across regions, hindering effective management strategies. To address these challenges, a harmonized, globally applicable framework is needed. This framework should consider soil properties and ensure reliable identification and quantification of MPs through standardized procedures for sampling, density separation, and polymer-specific analysis, while accounting for particle size and shape. Such protocols will provide a reliable foundation for MP monitoring in soils, while remaining adaptable for diverse research applications.

The Soil and Water Management & Crop Nutrition Laboratory (SWMCNL) in Seibersdorf, in collaboration with international experts, has conducted research on MPs. This includes soil incubation experiments using isotopes to monitor organic matter stability and MP degradation. Additionally, methods for extracting MPs from various soil types, including both conventional and biodegradable plastics, area being developed and tested. Recent work has focused on preparing protocols based on methods from the MINAGRIS project, in collaboration with Coordinated Research Project (CRP) experts. These protocols integrate density separation, organic matter removal, and microscopic analysis and provide improved MP recovery rates, particularly for particles larger than 300 µm. Additionally, emphasis was placed on determining the isotopic changes of δ13C by EA-IRMS due to the extraction procedure. This is to support research involving carbon isotopes, such as in incubation experiments. These methodological advances are important steps towards establishing a robust and scalable Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for MP research in soils.

Furthermore, in collaboration with the International Network on Soil Pollution (INSOP) from FAO, we aim to develop global working groups focused on MP extraction, identification and quantification of MPs in soil. INSOP’s overall aim is to stop soil pollution and achieve the global goal of zero pollution, covering assessment and remediation, as well as impacts on the environment and human health. INSOP also aims to strengthen technical capacities, legislative frameworks, and promotes the exchange of experiences and technologies for sustainable soil management and remediation.

Aligned with the UN Plastics Treaty, this initiative aims to enhance Member States’ technical capacities to address soil pollution and provide tools for evidence-based policymaking. By integrating harmonized monitoring protocols with adaptable research frameworks, we can better understand MP impacts on agricultural soils and support global efforts to mitigate plastic pollution.

How to cite: Heiling, M., Vezzone, M., Jiang, C., Dercon, G., and Ustinov, S.: Uniting Global Efforts to Combat Microplastic Pollution in Agricultural Soils: A Call for Harmonized Protocols and Collaborative Action, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10271, 2025.

EGU25-11487 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Characterizing the temporal trends in the concentration and composition of microplastics over the 20th century to present in the Chesapeake Bay region 

Kameron Finch, Tina Dura, Austin Gray, Jessica DePaolis, Andrew Allard, Ted Docev, Allison Montgomery, Piyali Roy, Maddi Williams, Brandon Hatcher, and Reide Corbett

Plastic production first began in the early 20th century, with production rapidly growing from the mid-20 century to present day. Intertidal ecosystems, such as wetlands and estuaries, serve as significant sinks for microplastics (particles < 5 mm) due to daily tidal inundation, natural sediment accumulation processes, and inputs from atmospheric, marine and freshwater sources. Despite documented microplastics in coastal waters and sediments, quantitative studies on how their concentration and composition has changed over time are scarce. Here, we analyzed sediment cores from intertidal wetlands on both the bayside and seaside of the Chesapeake Bay to quantify microplastic concentrations and characterize polymers. We collected two 50-cm sediment cores from a bayside wetland in the Saxis Wildlife Management Area and a seaside wetland on Wallops Island National Wildlife Refuge. Microplastics were isolated, enumerated, and characterized in 1-cm intervals. Polymer characterization was conducted using a µRaman mass spectrometer. 210Pb and 137Cs analyses provided a chronology of the sediment sequences, showing that ~40 cm core depth corresponds to 1900 and ~15 cm corresponds to 1963. Data from bayside marsh revealed an increase in microplastics concentrations from the bottom (~0.47 particles/g and 5.7 fibers/g) to the top (~2.3 particles/g and 10.8 fibers/g) of the core. Dominant polymers shifted from polystyrene and nylon at the bottom to polyethylene terephthalate at the top. At the seaside marsh, preliminary data shows an overall lower concentration of microplastics (<1 particle/g) with no discernable pattern throughout the core. Dominant polymers shifted from polyethylene terephthalate, polyethylene, and polyamide at the bottom to polystyrene at the top. At both sites, microplastics were present in sediments from the early 20th century, however, at the bayside location, early microplastics are consistent with polymers in use during that period, while at the seaside location, the microplastic concentration and composition suggest possible sediment mixing due to bioturbation. Future work will aim to explore the potential relationship between microplastics and geochemical cycling in both the bayside and seaside marshes, as well as work to constrain the amount of microplastics entering both locations via atmospheric deposition. 

How to cite: Finch, K., Dura, T., Gray, A., DePaolis, J., Allard, A., Docev, T., Montgomery, A., Roy, P., Williams, M., Hatcher, B., and Corbett, R.: Characterizing the temporal trends in the concentration and composition of microplastics over the 20th century to present in the Chesapeake Bay region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11487, 2025.

Marine and coastal pollution is a major challenge along Ghana’s maritime boundaries. Many of Ghana’s coastlines are popular sea turtle nesting sites that have been severely damaged due to the abundance of plastic and other waste along the beaches.

Though waste management facilities are presently available, these facilities are insufficient in coping with the amount of waste produced in the country; hence, waste is dumped along the beaches and into the ocean. Public interest and awareness in marine environmental cleanliness are relatively non-existent. Plastic Punch is a non-profit organization launched in January 2018 in Accra, Ghana, with the goal of protecting the coastal environment and biodiversity; against plastic waste via citizen science to inspire behavioral change and sustainable waste management solutions as well as raising awareness of the dangers of single-use plastics.

Plastic Punch has developed a multifaceted approach to achieve societal engagement, centred around large volunteer-based, community beach clean-ups that are held regularly at various Ghanaian beaches. The waste collected is sorted by type (e.g. bottles, bottle caps, plastic sachets, and shoes), and recorded for data analysis to advocate for policy direction notably the Extended Producer Responsibility regime and phasing out problematic plastics, and subsequent recycling. Marine pollution continues to remain a global issue, and with the active participation of local communities via citizen science throughout the planet, effective positive change can become a reality.

How to cite: Quarcoo, R.: Combating marine plastic pollution via societal engagement: Plastic Punch and Citizen science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12265, 2025.

EGU25-12591 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Quantifying Floating Litter Fluxes with a Semi-Supervised Learning-Based Framework 

Tianlong Jia, Riccardo Taormina, Rinze de Vries, Zoran Kapelan, Tim H.M. van Emmerik, Paul Vriend, and Imke Okkerman

Supervised deep learning methods have been widely employed by researchers and practitioners to detect floating macroplastic litter (plastic items >5 mm) in (fresh)water bodies. However, their potential to quantify litter fluxes in rivers with wide cross-sections remains underexplored. Additionally, supervised learning (SL) models also face practical challenges, including the dependency on extensive labeled data, and low detection performance for small litter items.

To overcome these issues, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL)-based framework for quantifying cross-sectional floating litter fluxes. This framework includes four steps: (1) developing a robust litter detection model using SSL methods, (2) collecting images of river surfaces from multiple locations along the target river cross-section using cameras, (3) applying the developed model to detect and count litter items in images, and (4) post-processing the detection results to quantify cross-sectional litter fluxes. In the first step, we first pre-trained a Residual Network with 50 layers (ResNet50) on a large amount of unlabeled data (≈500k images) using a self-supervised learning method, Swapping Assignments between multiple Views of the same image (SwAV). Then, we fine-tuned a Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Faster R-CNN) with the ResNet50 backbone on a limited amount of labeled data (1.1k images with 1.3k annotated litter items). We introduced a Slicing Aided Hyper Inference (SAHI) method to enhance accuracy of Faster R-CNN in detecting small litter.

We evaluated the in-domain detection performance of SSL models using images from canals and waterways of the Netherlands, Indonesia and Vietnam. Additionally, we assessed the zero-shot out-of-domain detection performance of SSL models, and litter flux quantification performance of the proposed framework on a case study in the Saigon river in Vietnam (including the Thu Thiem and Binh Loi locations). The assessment of out-of-domain detection performance was conducted with and without SAHI method. We benchmarked our results against the SL methods using the same Faster R-CNN architecture with ImageNet pre-trained weights. The results show that the SSL models significantly outperform baseline benchmarks, with an in-domain F1-score increase of 0.2, and a zero-shot out-of-domain median F1-score increase of 0.14 for Thu Thiem and 0.07 for Binh Loi. The SSL-based framework quantifies litter fluxes nearly twice as high as the baseline SL-based framework, offering estimates that align more closely with human-measured litter fluxes. Furthermore, the SAHI method correctly identifies 54 additional small litter items (with areas below 1,000 cm²) in the case study, compared to the results obtained without the SAHI method.

Our findings underscore a promising pathway for developing a robust framework for macroplastic flux measurement by integrating a foundation model, a transformative approach driving the current artificial intelligence revolution across diverse domains. By scaling our proposed framework with larger and more diversified datasets, we can make significant progress in developing advanced monitoring systems to tackle the global challenge of plastic pollution.

How to cite: Jia, T., Taormina, R., de Vries, R., Kapelan, Z., van Emmerik, T. H. M., Vriend, P., and Okkerman, I.: Quantifying Floating Litter Fluxes with a Semi-Supervised Learning-Based Framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12591, 2025.

EGU25-13279 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Riverine Microplastic Fluxes 

Andrew Gray, Clare Murphy-Hagan, Samiksha Singh, Win Cowger, and Hannah Hapich

Globally, rivers have been found to contain high concentrations of microplastics and are also the major conveyors of microplastic pollution to the ocean. This has engendered an increased focus on microplastic sources, transport, and fate in riverine systems. But how should we design microplastic monitoring plans for rivers if our goal is to quantify concentration, character, and flux? Here we present the results of microplastics monitoring campaigns conducted on several riverine systems draining coastal watersheds in Southern California and discuss lessons learned as well as future directions to support flux-based monitoring of microplastics. Key topics include consideration of microplastic distribution across the water column, sampler performance, concentration and character dependency on discharge/time, and by extension – effective discharge.

How to cite: Gray, A., Murphy-Hagan, C., Singh, S., Cowger, W., and Hapich, H.: Riverine Microplastic Fluxes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13279, 2025.

EGU25-13851 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

The assessment of microplastic and microfibres in freshwater systems through different sampling methods reveals causes of incomparability. 

Miguel Jorge Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, Rocío Quintana, Sandra Manzano-Medina, Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás, Gert Everaert, Ana Isabel Catarino, Mariana N. Miranda, and Daniel González-Fernández

Around twenty years of studies on microplastic pollution have revealed a major environmental concern. However, far from understanding the presence of microplastics in environmental matrices, abundances among studies differ highly. This is not only caused by the inherent variability of this pollution in aquatic ecosystems, but also because the use of different methodologies adds large uncertainties. This study assesses microplastics data and examines the differences induced by the methods used. A literature mining was performed in Web of Science to find relevant studies on microplastics in freshwater aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Out of 501 relevant (peer-reviewed) articles found in freshwater systems, 200 articles were selected for analysis, i.e., those offering data results per sample rather than summarizing per areas or studies. Such selection comprised 4297 samples from freshwater systems in the five continents. A wide range of concentrations of microplastics was detected worldwide (spanning 8 orders of magnitude). Grouping microplastic concentrations by sampling methods (nets, pumps, and bulk sampling) narrowed the variability distributions, particularly for nets. To elucidate the driving variables behind these changes, factors associated to each method were examined, showing that the main differences in the methods and concentrations obtained were related to the amount of water volume sampled, the mesh size (or minimum size reported), and whether microfibres were considered in the studies. Concentrations were highly and negatively correlated with the volume sampled (cor = -0.82; p < 0.001). This pattern was maintained within each sampling method. Differences of several orders of magnitude were found in the abundances obtained depending on the volume sampled, irrespective of the sampling instrument used. While the typical particle size distribution indicates that the smaller the particles, the larger the number, this was not the case when lower sampling volumes (< 0.1 m3) were grouped by minimum size reported. Furthermore, analysis by particle type (microplastics particles versus microfibres) showed a predominance of microplastics particles in the higher volume samples, while this was not observed in the lower volume samples. Depending on the method used, when microfibres are reported, the variability in abundances may not reflect environmental distributions, adding large variability and differences in particle size distributions and type of microplastics. Results obtained from lower volume sampling may be biased, e.g., influenced by cross-contamination of microfibres, because small variations in particle counts could magnify errors when extrapolated to larger volumes. This study shows that concentrations of microplastics can be comparable, regardless of sampling approach used, if the limitations of the methodology are known in relation to the volume sampled, the size spectrum reported and whether microfibres are counted.

How to cite: Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, M. J., Quintana, R., Manzano-Medina, S., Vélez-Nicolás, M., Everaert, G., Catarino, A. I., Miranda, M. N., and González-Fernández, D.: The assessment of microplastic and microfibres in freshwater systems through different sampling methods reveals causes of incomparability., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13851, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13851, 2025.

EGU25-14600 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

A novel approach for the quantification of the mass of micro and nanoplastic particles from filter samples 

Patrick Martens, Monica Arienzo, and Judith Chow

The widespread use and improper disposal of plastics have led to significant pollution in oceans, rivers, and landfills by these materials. This pollution threatens biodiversity and the health of ecosystems. Improperly disposed, large plastic waste may breakdown into small microplastics (5mm), which enter the food chain through ingestion by wildlife and thus also poses a serious concern to humans.

Traditionally, the detection of these particles is almost exclusively carried out by spectroscopic methods, such as infrared and Raman spectroscopy, while electron microscopy and thermoanalytical methods are not widely used tools in microplastic studies. This leads to major knowledge gaps in the degradation and environmental fate of plastic pollution, particularly for nanoplastic particles since the most used spectroscopic and visual detection methods have lower spatial resolution of ca. 20 µm (FTIR) and 1 µm (Raman), leading to a lower size cut-off. This leaves a gap for thermoanalytical methods, which can analyze plastic particles regardless of their size and are able to build a relationship, effectively trading information on polymer-specific particle size distributions for information on the mass of particles of a certain polymer.

We present a novel approach that combines a multiwavelength carbon analyzer with a photoionization time-of-flight mass spectrometer for analysis of microplastic particles from quartz fiber filters. The temperature of the oven of the carbon analyzer is continuously ramped with ca 20 °C min-1 to trigger the thermal decomposition of different plastic polymers (Figure 1 top panel). The major fraction of the evolving pyrolysis gas is passed over MnO2 substrate, which is held at 850°C for complete oxidation of carbonaceous gases. The forming CO2 is transferred to a non-dispersive infrared spectrometer for quantification of the total carbonaceous material. A minor fraction of the evolving pyrolysis gas from the decomposition of the plastic is sampled by a photoionization mass spectrometer upstream of the MnO2 substrate to capture the chemical composition of the evolving gases. The information of the mass spectrometer is used for specifying and quantifying individual polymer types.

Figure 1 Deconvolution of a mixture of polystyrene particles (blue), polyethylene terephthalate (yellow), and high-density polyethylene (red-orange) by the photoionization mass spectrometer. The top panel shows the sequential evolution of the individual polymers during analysis, and the lower panels show the polymer specific mass spectra used to identify the individual plastic types.

How to cite: Martens, P., Arienzo, M., and Chow, J.: A novel approach for the quantification of the mass of micro and nanoplastic particles from filter samples, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14600, 2025.

EGU25-15419 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Evaluating Riverine Litter Monitoring Methods: A Comparative Study of Visual and Camera-Based Approaches 

Jur van Wijk, Paul Vriend, Riccardo Taormina, and Thomas Mani

Riverine litter pollution poses substantial environmental challenges, necessitating effective monitoring techniques to assess and mitigate this environmental impact. Existing methods for monitoring riverine litter vary widely in quality, cost, ease of implementation and performance. The difference of these factors for different monitoring techniques remains underexplored, limiting the ability to effectively monitor floating litter flux over long time periods.

This study addresses this gap by evaluating four methods for riverine waste monitoring: (1) visual observations by human observers, (2) manual counting from camera images, (3) manual counting of AI-filtered camera images, and (4) fully automated AI-based counting of camera images. The evaluation focuses on two key objectives: assessing how well each method's recovery rate aligns with ground truth data and comparing plastic flux estimates derived from each method.

To this end, experiments are conducted in a semi-controlled waterway (lock). During these experiments, plastic litter is released in the water at random intervals to simulate natural litter transport. Human observers located on a bridge over the water count the floating litter and record data using the JRC Floating Litter Monitoring app. Simultaneously, high-resolution cameras capture images of the floating litter for the three camera-based methods. The flux estimates, as well as the implementation and the scalability of the different methods will be compared, to assess their overall effectiveness in monitoring. The study will provide insights into the strengths and limitations of each monitoring method, offering a basis for selecting the most suitable approach for various scenarios. This comparative evaluation will bridge a critical research gap, contributing to the development of more efficient monitoring strategies for addressing plastic pollution in waterways.

How to cite: van Wijk, J., Vriend, P., Taormina, R., and Mani, T.: Evaluating Riverine Litter Monitoring Methods: A Comparative Study of Visual and Camera-Based Approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15419, 2025.

EGU25-15691 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Integrating participatory science with official programmes using Bayesian machine learning to estimate beach macroplastic pollution in Spain 

Niclas Rieger, Estrella Olmedo, Beatriz Sánchez Fernández, Pilar Zorzo, Estibaliz López-Samaniego, Vanessa-Sarah Salvo, Laura Corredor, and Jaume Piera

The integration of participatory science (PS) data into official monitoring frameworks offers a promising pathway to enhance the spatial and temporal coverage of environmental assessments. Significant efforts have been made within the framework of the Spanish National Marine Strategy, which transposes the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (56/2008/EC), to integrate citizen science data, particularly regarding the impacts of macroplastics. In this study, we analyze the methodological challenges and potential efficiencies of integrating official monitoring programme data on marine litter on beaches with participatory science data in Spain using Bayesian machine learning.

Leveraging a flexible Gaussian Process Regression framework, we model the spatial distribution of beach litter pollution along the Spanish coastline, accounting for the differing uncertainties inherent to the two data sources. This data-driven approach enables us to produce robust estimations of macroplastic pollution levels with associated uncertainty maps and identify locations where PS contributions significantly reduce the uncertainty of official monitoring efforts. Preliminary results include spatial predictions of marine beach litter density, uncertainty quantification along Spanish coastlines, and insights into the added value of PS data for underrepresented regions.

Beyond providing actionable insights for Spain, this study presents a globally adaptable blueprint for the assimilation of participatory science data into official environmental monitoring programmes. The present study demonstrates the potential of combining machine learning, official monitoring programmes and participatory science to achieve actionable science, with the aim of strengthening policy, optimising resource allocation and enhancing coastal management practices on a global scale.

How to cite: Rieger, N., Olmedo, E., Sánchez Fernández, B., Zorzo, P., López-Samaniego, E., Salvo, V.-S., Corredor, L., and Piera, J.: Integrating participatory science with official programmes using Bayesian machine learning to estimate beach macroplastic pollution in Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15691, 2025.

EGU25-16100 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Microplastic incorporation into soil aggregates: Insights from two-year field experiments in European agricultural topsoils 

Melanie Braun, Max Gross, Christina Bogner, Larissa Hennig, Rene Heyse, Rachel Hurley, Johannes Leonhardt, Virtudes Martínez-Hernández, Luca Nizzetto, Ribana Roscher, Paula E. Redondo-Hasselerharm, Vera Schlierenkamp, Salla Selonen, Helena Soinne, and Wulf Amelung

Agricultural plastic mulch films are widely used in vegetable production to optimise soil temperature, moisture retention and weed control. However, they are also an important pathway for plastics to enter the soil, where they degrade over time into microplastics (MPs). The fate of these MPs in soil is still uncertain, however it is assumed that embedment in soil aggregates will protect MPs from further degradation.

The aim of this study was to investigate i) how much of the MPs from biodegradable and conventional films in European topsoils are occluded within soil aggregates, ii) if soil properties control this occlusion, and iii) whether certain sizes and shapes of MPs are favoured for the embedment.

To answer these questions, we analysed samples from field plot trials in Finland, Spain and Germany where MPs (< 1 mm) derived from recycled low-density polyethylene and starch - polybutylene adipate terephthalate films were incorporated into topsoil (0-10 cm) at a concentration of 0.05%. Barley was grown there in two consecutive years and soil samples were taken immediately after harvest.

Free MPs and MPs embedded in soil aggregates were separated using a combination of plastic extraction (density separation and organic matter digestion) and aggregate separation techniques (ultrasonication and shaking). The size and shape of MPs were analysed using a UNet model applied to digital microscopic images.

Our results showed that up to 80% of MPs are embedded in soil aggregates, with the highest proportions found in Spain, followed by Germany and Finland. Significant differences in the distribution of MPs inside and outside aggregates were observed in both Spain and Finland. The clay content had a significant effect on the occlusion of the MP in the aggregates. MPs embedded in aggregates were on average 2.5 times smaller than those outside, with most of them being smaller than 100 µm. We conclude that large portions of MPs are embedded in soil aggregates, how this affect their fate must now be analysed (see Groß et al., (EGU 2025): Microplastic degradation in agricultural soils across Europe: Comparative study of MPs inside and outside soil aggregates over two years).

How to cite: Braun, M., Gross, M., Bogner, C., Hennig, L., Heyse, R., Hurley, R., Leonhardt, J., Martínez-Hernández, V., Nizzetto, L., Roscher, R., Redondo-Hasselerharm, P. E., Schlierenkamp, V., Selonen, S., Soinne, H., and Amelung, W.: Microplastic incorporation into soil aggregates: Insights from two-year field experiments in European agricultural topsoils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16100, 2025.

EGU25-16101 | ECS | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Microplastic alteration in agricultural soils across Europe: Comparative study of MPs inside and outside soil aggregates over two years 

Max Groß, Wulf Amelung, Rafaela Debastiani, Larissa Hennig, Rachel Hurley, Matthias Mail, Virtudes Martínez-Hernández, Luca Nizzetto, Paula Redondo-Hasselerharm, Torsten Scherer, Salla Selonen, Helena Soinne, and Melanie Braun

Soils are considered to be a major sink for microplastics (MPs) in the environment, with the application of agricultural mulch films being one of the most important pathways to enter soil. Once in the soil, plastic particles are exposed to various environmental factors leading to MP ageing, characterised by morphological and structural changes. Soil aggregates can play a crucial role for these degradation processes, potentially preserving MP within them.

Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the degradation differences between MPs originating from mulching films inside and outside of soil aggregates over a two-year exposure period in European agricultural topsoils.

To do so, we analysed samples from field plot trials in Finland, Spain and Germany where MPs (< 1 mm) derived from recycled low-density polyethylene and starch - polybutylene adipate terephthalate films were incorporated into topsoil (0-10 cm) at a concentration of 0.05%. Barley was grown there in two consecutive years and soil samples were taken immediately after harvest.

Free MP and MP embedded in soil aggregates were separated using a combination of plastic extraction and aggregate separation techniques, ensuring that these methods did not alter the surface or structure of the MPs. The degradation state was assessed using a correlative multimodal approach, including scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDX), nano-computed tomography (nano-CT) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR).

Exposure to soil resulted in significant ageing effects of MPs, such as surface cracking, increased oxygen content and the formation of new functional group, a higher proportion of pores, and the attachment of microorganisms. Notably, the ageing effects were more pronounced for MPs outside the aggregates compared to those embedded in the aggregates. In addition, differences were observed that were influenced by the specific conditions in each country. The results of this study reflect the complexity of environmental ageing, which depends on the soil conditions in each country. In conclusion, aggregates protect MPs from degradation, favouring plastic accumulation in the soil.

How to cite: Groß, M., Amelung, W., Debastiani, R., Hennig, L., Hurley, R., Mail, M., Martínez-Hernández, V., Nizzetto, L., Redondo-Hasselerharm, P., Scherer, T., Selonen, S., Soinne, H., and Braun, M.: Microplastic alteration in agricultural soils across Europe: Comparative study of MPs inside and outside soil aggregates over two years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16101, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16101, 2025.

EGU25-16127 | Posters on site | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Large-scale spatial analysis of sources and transport mechanisms of plastic litter to Icelandic beaches 

Jonathan Dick, Sarah Dalrymple, and Timothy Lane

Beaches are known sinks of plastic waste at the macro to micro scales but our understanding of the processes driving this is poor due to differing sources and complex transportation mechanisms ranging from windblown deposition of ocean bound plastic to direct deposition from nearby anthropogenic activities. Additionally, while studies are numerous and have pointed to complex sources and transportation/deposition mechanisms they have often suffered from limited spatial extents or taken place over large time scales.

This study presents a large spatial scale snapshot survey of beach macro and mesoplastic litter from beaches around the coast of Iceland. Beaches were selected to cover a wide variety of different attributes including geomorphology, aspect, and land uses with the aim of allowing investigation of sources and supply mechanisms without the impact of changing meteorological conditions. Beaches were surveyed for plastic using an OSPAR and quadrat-based sampling methodology with quadrats employed to sample for mesoplastic (5-25mm) particles within the sediment that would otherwise be missed during a standard OSPAR survey. Collected plastic particles were measured, weighed, and identified where possible, with polymer types determined through laboratory FTIR analysis. Statistical analyses combined these results with environmental and geographical data to investigate the sources and transport mechanisms driving plastic deposition.

The results revealed large variability in plastic litter numbers and density on the beaches ranging from 0 to >20 items per m2, with the greatest plastic litter concentrations being identified in the more remote locations sampled. The sources of plastic to beaches also showed variability, with some beaches having larger fractions of plastic attributable to terrestrial activities or near-by industrial uses. Analyses highlighted a complex range of sources and transportation mechanisms related to prevalent wind directions, anthropogenic activities, and even sediment calibre. Additionally, results also highlighted a relationship between beach management and concentrations of mesoplastic litter within the sediment suggesting that even infrequent beach litter management may lead to significantly smaller plastic pollution concentrations within beach sediment.

How to cite: Dick, J., Dalrymple, S., and Lane, T.: Large-scale spatial analysis of sources and transport mechanisms of plastic litter to Icelandic beaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16127, 2025.

Quantifying plastic pollution is a key activity to unlock: understanding of plastic transport processes; verification of modelling efforts; baseline estimations at river basin level; performance measurement of cleanup efforts; and others. Visual counting and visual classification are cornerstone methodologies to quantify macroplastic fluxes in rivers, providing comparable datasets and replicable methodologies. This study compares monitoring conducted in 50 locations over the past 10 years; it includes some datasets already published while others are novel. This is a growing dataset, part of ongoing monitoring efforts. Most data collection was done so far in Southeast Asia (>50% of surveys), while efforts in Central America (appr. 16%) were done mostly within the same river basin in Guatemala. The dataset covers 37 rivers and also include a few surveys in North America, Europe and Africa (appr. 7%). Most of the surveys were conducted in natural waterways, with widths varying between 6 and 550 meters, while at least 40% were up to 100 meters in width. In this study, we compare these datasets in terms of fluxes and composition and assess what they can tell about plastic pollution and its correlation with the environment (e.g. precipitation, flow regime, tides). We also discuss opportunities and shortcomings in the methodology and its applicability in such diverse contexts. The main outlook is that these findings reflect the diversity of fluxes and composition across different river systems. These methodologies can be a cost-effective tool to bridge the gap in quantifying plastic pollution across the globe, whilst other techniques (e.g. camera-driven, GPS drifters), can cover its limitations or complement the efforts.

How to cite: Assumpção, T. H., Higgins, D., Correia, R., and Pinson, S.: Exploring visual counting and visual classification as monitoring tools to quantify macroplastic emissions: findings from 50 campaigns across the globe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17725, 2025.

EGU25-18045 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

The value of Crowd-sourced data in Image-based River Plastic Detection 

Khim Cathleen Saddi, Domenico Miglino, Aung Chit Moe, Cristina Caramiello, Matteo Poggi, Ilja van Meerveld, Tim H. M. van Emmerik, and Salvatore Manfreda

Recent advances in hydrological monitoring using different camera systems provide a huge potential in long-term monitoring of plastic transport, which is necessary to find the plastic sources and to monitor any progress in efforts to reduce riverine plastic transport. The high interest in using machine learning in different environmental monitoring applications allowed the fast development of models aimed to translate manual visual to computer vision monitoring. However, there is still a lack of robust plastic image datasets that could support machine learning models to detect different plastic classes (i.e., plastic bag, plastic bottle, plastic straw, etc.) that are found in the environment. 

In this study, we aimed to identify which data features could be useful to enhance the capabilities of the YOLO series of models (i.e., YOLO World, YOLO NAS, YOLOv8, YOLOv10, YOLOv11) initially trained using a merged dataset (999 images, 15,212 annotations, and 13 plastic classes) taken from different countries (Indonesia, The Netherlands and Vietnam). In addition, we used crowd-sourced images data of river plastics collected with the CrowdWater app (https://crowdwater.ch/), a citizen science app that allows users to report plastic pollution in water bodies. The data was fed to the models for detection 0 (first plastic detection which generates initial labels for iterative training later), in which those learned are considered redundant and unlearned essential–auto image curation. These labels were validated through manual label curation and adjustment. The essential data was added to the existing dataset to fine tune the set of models and the auto image curation will be run again for at least 10 iterations. The performance of these models has been compared for the base dataset (existing and all crowd data) and the optimized dataset (existing and curated crowd data). 

This work leverages the value of utilising crowd-sourced diverse data, without the need for a big dataset or a complex algorithm architecture, to implement river plastic detection from local to global scale in the future.

 

Keywords: river plastic monitoring, crowdwater, image-based object detection

How to cite: Saddi, K. C., Miglino, D., Moe, A. C., Caramiello, C., Poggi, M., van Meerveld, I., van Emmerik, T. H. M., and Manfreda, S.: The value of Crowd-sourced data in Image-based River Plastic Detection, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18045, 2025.

Introducing RUMBA: Revealing underwater macroplastic pollution using acoustic backscatter

 

Session: ITS3.19/HS12.4: Advances in plastic pollution monitoring across the Geosphere 

 

The ever-increasing production of (single use) plastics has led to enormous amounts of pollution, threatening ecosystems, livelihood, safety and human health. Large quantities of the littered plastics are trapped in or transported by rivers. Methods for monitoring plastics in rivers mostly focus on floating or deposited plastics, while recent studies show that a substantial proportion of plastics are transported below the water surface. At this stage, mainly nets and heavy machinery are used, making them labor-intensive, expensive and invasive. They are therefore limited to occasional spot measurements.

 

The RUMBA project aims to detect underwater macroplastic pollution (>5 mm) in rivers using acoustic backscatter. While acoustic sensor shows promise for plastic detection (Boon et al., 2023), a comprehensive understanding of how backscatter varies with item characteristics (size, shape, composition, and orientation) under different environmental conditions is still needed. We will test this during controlled, semi-controlled, and uncontrolled settings in Europe and Asia.

 

In this poster presentation we will discuss the aims of RUMBA:(1) identify and distinguish the most common underwater macroplastics, (2) develop an automated detection method, (3) apply and validate the method in field conditions, and (4) use unique historical datasets to uncover trends in plastic transport in Dutch rivers.

 

We anticipate that the results from RUMBA have the potential to provide continuous and/or cross-sectional estimates of underwater plastic transport in rivers, along with measurements of current and sediment concentration. By providing insights into the impact of past interventions on plastic pollution and enabling accurate identification of sources and sinks of plastic litter, this approach could support more effective mitigation and remediation efforts.

 

References

Boon, A., et al. (2023). Detection of suspended macroplastics using acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP) echo. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, 1231595.

How to cite: Liese, N., van Emmerik, T., Waldschlager, K., and Ton, H.: Introducing RUMBA: Revealing underwater macroplastic pollution using acoustic backscatterIntroducing RUMBA: Revealing underwater macroplastic pollution using acoustic backscatter, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18257, 2025.

EGU25-19847 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Improving monitoring, analysis and reporting to assess plastic pollution: a matter of comparability 

Daniel González-Fernández, Miguel Jorge Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, Mercedes Vélez-Nicolás, Rocío Quintana, Sandra Manzano, Miranda Stibora, Ana Isabel Catarino, Mariana Nogueira Miranda, and Gert Everaert

It has been two decades since scientists started reporting microplastic data in the marine environment. During that time, research on plastic pollution in aquatic systems has evolved rapidly and expanded from the ocean to upstream sources in the river basins. Despite the progress made in acquiring new data and knowledge, the issue of harmonizing methodologies for monitoring, analysis and reporting plastic pollution remains open, hindering data comparison. In the case of microplastic studies, intrinsic questions persist nowadays, e.g., representativeness of samples, minimum and maximum size of items, item size distributions, contamination of samples, meaningful polymer analyses, etc., although these issues were identified a decade ago [1] . In this work, we assessed current issues related to monitoring, analysis and reporting plastic pollution, based on a global literature review (ca. 600 studies) via the Riverine Litter Database (RLDB) implemented under the Horizon Europe Project INSPIRE, and propose a ‘requirement list’ on how to process field data to improve reporting for comparability of results.

We identified that, during monitoring, sampling size was frequently not adapted to answer the scientific question in place, meaning the samples were too small to cover in a representative way the selected size ranges (micro-, meso-, and macroplastic), hindering assessment of both spatial and temporal variability. Analyses were often incomplete, lacking essential information such as particle size distribution and polymer identification based on statistical requirements. As a general overview, we highlight that, besides the quality of the monitoring and analysis methodologies, data reporting was missing important metadata and data in many studies. Some of that missing information would imply elementary data, like GPS location, date, sample size and number of particles identified per sample. Furthermore, a large part of our ‘requirement list’ for data reporting was mostly not accessible or had not been considered during the sample analyses, which would include reporting on particle size and mass distributions, concentrations per size bins (beyond distinguishing only among micro-, meso- and macroplastics concentrations), or making accessible raw data at particle level for microplastics or harmonised item classification for macroplastics. Such details would facilitate framing the significance of the results of each study and improve comparability. In INSPIRE, we implement a data processing framework following a common guideline with elementary and advance requirements for data harmonization to improve reporting of results for extended comparability, making existing data more accessible and reusable.

How to cite: González-Fernández, D., Sánchez-Guerrero-Hernández, M. J., Vélez-Nicolás, M., Quintana, R., Manzano, S., Stibora, M., Catarino, A. I., Miranda, M. N., and Everaert, G.: Improving monitoring, analysis and reporting to assess plastic pollution: a matter of comparability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19847, 2025.

EGU25-20432 | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

Comparison of Atmospheric Microplastic in remote and urban locations in Norway; occurrence, composition and sources 

Dorte Herzke, Natascha Schmidt, Dorothea Schulze, Sabine Eckhardt, and Nikolaos Evangeliou

Ocean currents originating in the south of Europe have been proposed to function as major transport routes of microplastics from the more densely populated southern areas in Europe to the Arctic. However, given the limited empirical data and lack of harmonized methodologies for sample collection, little is known about the role urban sites play as emission sources. Here we present the outcomes of a study applying passive and active air-samplers for wet and dry deposition on two remote monitoring stations, Ny Ålesund (Svalbard) in the High Norwegian Arctic, and at Birkenes in mainland Norway in 2022, 2023 and 2024. We complement the results with samples collected in three Norwegian cities (Tromsø, Trondheim and Oslo). Bi-weekly samples were collected during the period of June-December in 2022 and 2023 for the Norwegian onshore samples and during June 2021 and 2023 for the arctic offshore samples. In 2024 we sampled from January to December with the same approach. We used full metal bulk precipitation samplers and suspended air samplers (Innovation NILU’s Atmospheric Microplastic Collector).

All samples were handled under strict QA/QC requirements, with all sample treatment occurring in controlled conditions of clean rooms and laminar flow cabinets. After filtration on a GF/F filter, polymer determination was performed by pyr-GC/MS (Frontier lab multi shot pyrolizer EGA/PY 3030D connected to a Frontier lab AS 1020E Auto shot sampler connected to a ThermoScience TSQ9000 GC/MS/MS). All samples were accompanied with field and procedural blanks. Results were further analysed with respect to their spatial origin and long-range transport using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART.

MP concentrations in deposition samples were more than 10000-times higher than in active samples, and Arctic samples were in general lower than samples from the Norwegian mainland.

 

Rubber from car tires and Nylon dominated most samples, followed by PMMA and PVC. While tire wear particles (TWP) and Nylon dominate in the Norwegian mainland samples, contribute almost every of the measured polymers to the samples from Zeppelin station, Svalbard. MP concentrations in deposition samples were more than 10-times higher than in active samples, and remote samples were lower than samples from the urban sites. The prevalence of TWP in most samples, and especially in urban samples, indicates the important role TWP play in the overall inventory of atmospheric microplastic. Seasonal variations could be observed at all sites as well, with increasing microplastic concentrations found in the fall. Results were further analysed with respect to their spatial origin and long-range transport using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Seaspray, roaddust and agricultural sources were among the main sources identified by the model.

 

How to cite: Herzke, D., Schmidt, N., Schulze, D., Eckhardt, S., and Evangeliou, N.: Comparison of Atmospheric Microplastic in remote and urban locations in Norway; occurrence, composition and sources, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20432, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20432, 2025.

EGU25-21807 | ECS | Orals | ITS3.19/HS12.4

The urban microplastic footprint: investigating the distribution and transport 

Inês Leitão, Loes van Schaik, Antonio Ferreira, and Violette Geissen

Plastic pollution has become an escalating global issue, with large quantities of plastics being produced and taking a long time to degrade in the environment. Once in the environment, plastics break down into microplastics (<5 mm), which have been detected in various environmental compartments worldwide. Microplastics contribute to pollution in water, air, and soil, with consequences for the normal functioning of the ecosystems, and have been linked to human health concerns. The growing urban population has exacerbated pollution, particularly in cities. Urban areas are significant pollution sources, with roads, industrial activities, wastewater and landfills serving as key hotspots. Pollutants like microplastics are transported from these sources through pathways such as wind and rain, making it difficult to quantify, manage, and remediate them – an ongoing challenge recognized by the European Commission.
Experts emphasize that green urban areas can act as natural filters for pollutants, including microplastics, by capturing them in vegetation. These areas can help control the transport of pollutants. While much is known about microplastic contamination, further investigation is needed into their presence in soils, their transport mechanisms, and the role of vegetation in filtering microplastics, particularly in urban environments.
This study focuses on (1) the spatial distribution of microplastics in urban soils across different land uses, and in runoff and streams waters, (2) their transport via atmospheric deposition and wind erosion, and (3) their deposition in vegetation, including grass and tree leaves. Coimbra, a medium-sized city in central Portugal, serves as the case study. Soil, sediment, water, and vegetation samples were collected from Coimbra and analyzed at Wageningen University & Research labs. Microplastics were extracted using density separation with Sodium Phosphate solution (~1.4 g cm−3) and filtration methods, then visualized under a stereo microscope and identified using u-FTIR.

How to cite: Leitão, I., van Schaik, L., Ferreira, A., and Geissen, V.: The urban microplastic footprint: investigating the distribution and transport, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21807, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21807, 2025.

HS13 – Further sessions of interest to Hydrological Sciences

EGU25-1679 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Effect of boundary layer low-level jet on fog fast spatial propagation 

Shuqi Yan, Hongbin Wang, Xiaohui Liu, Fan Zu, and Duanyang Liu

The spatiotemporal variation of fog reflects the complex interactions among fog, boundary layer thermodynamics and synoptic systems. Previous studies revealed that fog can present fast spatial propagation feature and attribute it to boundary layer low-level jet (BLLJ), but the effect of BLLJ on fog propagation is not quantitatively understood. Here we analyze a large-scale fog event in Jiangsu, China from 20 to 21 January 2020. Satellite retrievals show that fog propagates from southeast coastal area to northwest inland with the speed of 9.6 m/s, which is three times larger than the ground wind speeds. The ground meteorologies are insufficient to explain the fog fast propagation, which is further investigated by WRF simulations. The fog fast propagation could be attributed to the BLLJ occurring between 50 and 500 m, because the wind speeds (10 m/s) and directions (southeast) of BLLJ core are consistent with fog propagation. Through sensitive experiments and process analysis, three possible mechanisms of BLLJ are revealed: 1) The abundant oceanic moisture is transported inland, increasing the humidity of boundary layer and promoting condensation; 2) The oceanic warm air is transported inland, enhancing the inversion layer and favouring moisture accumulation; 3) The moisture advection probably promotes low stratus formation, and later it subsides to be ground fog by turbulent mixing of fog droplets. The fog propagation speed would decrease notably by 6.4m/s (66%) in the model if the BLLJ-related moisture and warm advections are turned off.

How to cite: Yan, S., Wang, H., Liu, X., Zu, F., and Liu, D.: Effect of boundary layer low-level jet on fog fast spatial propagation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1679, 2025.

During 29th July to 1st August in 2023, a persistent heavy rainfall event (“23·7” event) hit North China causing severe floods, enormous infrastructure damage and large economy loss. Observational analysis shows that the extremely large accumulation of precipitation and long duration of this event are closely related to a slowly moving landfall typhoon “Dusuari” over North China due to the blocking effect of an anomalous high over the mid- and high-latitude Asia. The anomalous southeasterly flow induced by the typhoon “Dusuari” and another typhoon “Kanu” over the East China Sea jointly built a highly efficient channel of water vapor supplying from southern oceans towards North China. A water vapor budget analysis indicates that precipitation of this event is mainly caused by dynamic process involving strong ascending motion. Accompanying strong water vapor transportation and convergence over North China, large amount of latent heat is released in the middle and lower troposphere. The physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall-induced diabatic heating in maintaining the precipitation over North China is further investigated using statistics analysis and numerical experiments. On one hand, the latent heating released by heavy rainfall induces significant uplifting flows which causes more precipitation. On the other hand, the heavy rainfall-induced diabatic heating contributes to enhancement of the westward extension of high-pressure dam around the Mongolian Plateau through a regional meridional circulation. This strengthened high pressure dam sustained the cyclonic circulation of “Dusuari” over North China, leading to continuous heavy rainfall there.

How to cite: Zhao, W.: Mechanisms of persistent extreme rainfall event in North China, July 2023: Role of atmospheric diabatic heating, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1762, 2025.

EGU25-1763 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Wind profile warning characteristics of short-term heavy rain during the Meiyu season 

Jingyu Wang, Chunguang Cui, Xiaokang Wang, and Xiaofang Wang

This study examines the spatial and temporal distributions of short-term heavy rain (SHR) in the middle Yangtze River basin (MYRB) in the summers of the past decade. SHR events are most frequent during the annual Meiyu periods, significantly contributing to total precipitation. Additionally, these events generally last longer and tend to peak at night. The occurrence of SHR events decrease from southeast to northwest, influenced by the monsoonal flow and the small-scale terrain. Moisture convergence prior to Meiyu SHR events is predominantly influenced by both southerly and easterly winds below 700 hPa. Frequent low-level jets and quasi-steady cyclonic circulation lead to strong southerly winds prevailing over the eastern MYRB, while weaker easterly winds dominate in the west. Wind profiles derived from wind profile radar products illustrate the preceding changes in wind speed, wind directions, and vertical wind shear below 4 km above ground level (AGL), as well as the timing of these changes. In the plain area of southeastern MYRB, accelerated southwesterlies are observed 3 to 4 hours before SHR events, accompanied by an intensification of southerly winds near the boundary layer top 2 hours prior. Within the hour leading up to the SHR events, wind speeds sharply rise to their peak. In front of the mountains in west MYRB, southwesterlies strengthen 5 hours in advance but then weaken as they shift to northerlies. Just before the SHR events, however, reinforced northerlies occur near the surface. In the mountainous region of western MYRB, while changes in wind speed are minimal due to topographic blocking, the frequency of southeasterly components below 2 km AGL significantly increases 4 hours before SHR events. The preceding timing of significant vertical wind shear coincides with the increase in wind speed and the change in wind direction. Understanding the detailed characteristics of wind profiles preceding the SHR events during the Meiyu seasons can provide valuable insights for localized severe weather early warning systems. 

How to cite: Wang, J., Cui, C., Wang, X., and Wang, X.: Wind profile warning characteristics of short-term heavy rain during the Meiyu season, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1763, 2025.

Convective clouds during the Mei-yu season contribute significantly to the total rainfall and related disasters over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Studying the effects of aerosols on convective clouds is of great importance to weather and climate research. However, there are still many open questions to address. This study investigated the effects of aerosol on convections with different cloud geometrical thickness (CGT) bins during the 2018 Mei-yu season, which lasted for 17 days from 18 June to 5 July. Contrasting aerosol effects on shallow and deep convective clouds were revealed by means of anthropogenic aerosol experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Specifically, increased anthropogenic aerosols lead to a 9% reduction in total rainfall and a 7.17% decrease in convection occurrences during the Mei-yu season. After adopting a methodology that stratifies the convective clouds by fixing the CGT, we found that increasing aerosols suppress shallow convections with CGT less than 4 km and invigorate deep convections with CGT greater than 4 km. Increased aerosols enhance the scattering of shortwave radiation, resulting in cooling of the surface air and increasing the stability of the regional lower atmosphere, potentially suppressing shallow convection. Meanwhile, in deep convection, with its stronger updraft and more latent heat, convective invigoration occurs under polluted conditions due to the aerosol-related microphysical and dynamical responses. Considering the high-humidity environment during the Mei-yu season, additional relative humidity tests show that the competing aerosol effects come from convective core invigoration and convective periphery processes which enhance evaporation and dissipation, demonstrating relative humidity is a critical factor in maintaining the net aerosol effects on convections. These results contribute to a better understanding of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on convections during the Mei-yu season and the competing effects of aerosols depending on the ambient environmental conditions.

How to cite: liu, L.: Contrasting aerosol effects on shallow and deep convections during the Mei-yu season in China , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1775, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1775, 2025.

The present study assesses the simulated precipitation and cloud properties using three microphysics schemes (Morrison, Thompson, and MY) implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The precipitation, differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP) and mass-weighted mean diameter of raindrops (Dm) are compared with measurements from a heavy rainfall event that occurred on 27 June 2020 during the Integrative Monsoon Frontal Rainfall Experiment (IMFRE). The results indicate that all three microphysics schemes generally capture the characteristics of rainfall, ZDR, KDP, and Dm, but tend to overestimate their intensity. To enhance the model performance, adjustments are made based on the MY scheme, which exhibited the best performance. Specifically, the overall coalescence and collision parameter (Ec) are reduced, which effectively decreases Dm and makes it more consistent with observations. Generally, reducing Ec leads to an increase in the simulated content (Qr) and number concentration (Nr) of raindrops across most time steps and altitudes. With a smaller Ec, the impact of microphysical processes on Nr and Qr varies with time and altitude. Generally, the autoconversion of droplets to raindrops primarily contributes to Nr, while the accretion of cloud droplets by raindrops plays a more significant role in increasing Qr. In this study, it is emphasized that even the precipitation characteristics could be adequately reproduced, accurately simulating microphysical characteristics remains challenging and it still needs adjustments in the most physically based parameterizations to achieve more accurate simulation.

How to cite: Zhou, Z.: An evaluation and improvement of microphysical parameterization for a heavy rainfall process in Meiyu season, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1816, 2025.

EGU25-1939 | Orals | AS1.1

Stochastic Galerkin method for cloud simulation 

Alina Chertock

In this talk, we consider a mathematical model of cloud physics that consists of the Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the cloud evolution equations for water vapor, cloud water, and rain. In this model, the Navier-Stokes equations describe weakly compressible flows with viscous and heat conductivity effects, while microscale cloud physics is modeled by the system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations. We aim to explicitly describe the evolution of uncertainties arising from unknown input data, such as model parameters and initial or boundary conditions. The developed stochastic Galerkin method combines the space-time approximation obtained by a suitable finite volume method with a spectral-type approximation based on the generalized polynomial chaos expansion in the stochastic space. The resulting numerical scheme yields a second-order accurate approximation in both space and time and exponential convergence in the stochastic space. Our numerical results demonstrate the reliability and robustness of the stochastic Galerkin method. We also use the proposed method to study the behavior of clouds in certain perturbed scenarios, for example, the ones leading to changes in macroscopic cloud patterns as a shift from hexagonal to rectangular structures.

How to cite: Chertock, A.: Stochastic Galerkin method for cloud simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1939, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1939, 2025.

EGU25-2024 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Analysis and research on the impact of terrain on the "23.7" extremely heavy rainstorm 

xiaoyu huang, zhenzhen wu, feng xue, and chenghao fu

From 08:00 on July 29 to 08:00 on August 2, 2023, under the influence of typhoon "Dussuri", an extremely heavy rainstorm process occurs in Hebei and Beijing. The precipitation in some areas of the windward slope of Taihang Mountains exceeds 250mm, and in some areas it exceeds 500mm. The distribution of heavy precipitation is basically consistent with the terrain of the windward slope. Using the 6-minute radar retrieved wind field network data developed by the CMA (China meteorological administration) Meteorological Observation Center for analysis, it is found that from 13:00 on July 29th to 20:00 on August 1st, a southeast-oriented ultra-low-level jet greater than 12 m/s was maintained in the 925-hPa field over Hebei and Beijing. The angle between the jet and the Taihang Mountains is almost 90°, and at the same time, a 850-hPa typhoon trough stays on the windward slope for a long time, resulting in stable and less movement of heavy precipitation echoes. This series of factors together led to the occurrence of the extremely heavy rainstorm process. Using the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data as the initial field and based on the WRF4.5 model, a sensitivity test is conducted on this process using three-layer bidirectional nesting (grid spacing of 9km, 3km, and 1km, respectively). The experiment reduces the Yanshan and Taihang Mountains to half of their original heights and 50 meters, respectively (equivalent to the altitude of Beijing). The experimental results indicate that: (1) Precipitation impact: Due to the easterly winds brought by typhoons, the eastern side of Taihang Mountains is on the windward slope, which has a significant impact on precipitation. When the height of Taihang Mountains decreases, the precipitation intensity significantly weakens; When the terrain height drops to 50m, the precipitation location is biased to the west compared to the actual situation. (2) The experiment showed that the blocking effect of Taihang Mountains formed mesoscale low vortex and convergence line on the windward slope. When the height of Taihang Mountains drops to half of its original height or only 50 meters, the mesoscale low vortex and convergence line move westward to Shaanxi Province. (3) The vertical profile analysis along the east-west direction of Taihang Mountains shows strong upward movement in the windward slope area, with positive vorticity in the lower level and negative vorticity in the upper level. When the height of Taihang Mountains decreases, the upward movement significantly weakens, and the positive and negative vorticity weakens until it disappears, indicating that the dynamic effect of terrain has a significant impact on precipitation processes. (4) The Yanshan Mountains are oriented east-west, and parallel to the environmental winds. Therefore, when its height decreases, its impact on physical quantities such as precipitation, wind field, vertical velocity, and vorticity is relatively small.

Key words: terrain, "23.7" extremely heavy rainstorm, analysis

How to cite: huang, X., wu, Z., xue, F., and fu, C.: Analysis and research on the impact of terrain on the "23.7" extremely heavy rainstorm, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2024, 2025.

EGU25-2044 | Orals | AS1.1

A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions 

Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, and Ismail Gultepe

 Fog, rain, snow, and icing are the high-impact weather events often lead to the highway blockings, which in turn causes serious economic and human losses. At present, there is no clear calculation method for the severity of highway blocking which is related to highway load degree and economic losses. Therefore, there is an urgent need to propose a method for assessing the economic losses caused by high-impact weather events that lead to highway blockages, in order to facilitate the management and control of highways and the evaluation of economic losses. The goal of this work is to develop a method to be used to assess the high impact weather (HIW) effects on the highway blocking. Based on the K-means cluster analysis and the CRITIC (Criteria Importance through Intercriteria Correlation) weight assignment method, we analysed the highway blocking events occurred in Chinese provinces in 2020. Through cluster analysis, a new method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed to distinguish the severity into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated for all weather types. As a part of calculating the degree of highway blocking, the highway load in each province is evaluated. The economic losses caused by dense fog are specifically assessed for the entire country.

How to cite: Liu, D., Jing, T., Yan, M., and Gultepe, I.: A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2044, 2025.

I will introduce a flux globalization-based well-balanced path-conservative central-upwind scheme on Cartesian meshes for the two-dimensional (2-D) two-layer thermal rotating shallow water equations. The scheme is well-balanced in the sense that it can exactly preserve a variety of physically relevant steady states. In the 2-D case, preserving general "moving-water" steady states is difficult, and to the best of our knowledge, none of existing schemes can achieve this ultimate goal. The proposed scheme can exactly preserve the 𝑥- and 𝑦-directional jets in the rotational frame as well as certain genuinely 2-D equilibria. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme in computationally non-trivial situations: in the presence of shocks, dry areas, non-trivial topographies, including discontinuous ones, and in the case of hyperbolicity loss. The scheme works equally well in both the 𝑓-plane and beta-plane frameworks.

How to cite: Kurganov, A., Cao, Y., Liu, Y., and Zeitlin, V.: Flux Globalization-Based Well-Balanced Path-Conservative Central-Upwind Scheme for Two-Dimensional Two-Layer Thermal Rotating Shallow Water Equations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2053, 2025.

EGU25-2224 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Interpretable ultivariate scoring rules based on aggregation and transformation 

Romain Pic, Clément Dombry, Philippe Naveau, and Maxime Taillardat

Proper scoring rules are an essential tool to assess the predictive performance of probabilistic forecasts. However, propriety alone does not ensure an informative characterization of predictive performance and it is recommended to compare forecasts using multiple scoring rules. With that in mind, interpretable scoring rules providing complementary information are necessary. We formalize a framework based on aggregation and transformation to build interpretable multivariate proper scoring rules. Aggregation-and-transformation-based scoring rules can target application-specific features of probabilistic forecasts, which improves the characterization of the predictive performance. This framework is illustrated through examples taken from the weather forecasting literature and numerical experiments are used to showcase its benefits in a controlled setting. Additionally, the framework is tested on real-world data of postprocessed wind speed forecasts over central Europe. In particular, we show that it can help bridge the gap between proper scoring rules and spatial verification tools.

How to cite: Pic, R., Dombry, C., Naveau, P., and Taillardat, M.: Interpretable ultivariate scoring rules based on aggregation and transformation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2224, 2025.

EGU25-2650 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Constraining Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Using Typical Synoptic Patterns 

Yang Hu, Yanluan Lin, Jiawei Bao, and Yi Deng

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) suffers from extreme precipitation (EP) during summer, which has a huge impact on human society and ecosystem. However, the large spreads among climate models hinder their application in future risk assessment. In this work, four typical synoptic patterns (SPs) triggering EP over MLYR are identified based on the clustering algorithm. And we found a significant linear correlation between the CMIP6 (sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models’ ability to reproduce the observed typical SPs in present-day climate and the projected future changes of EP over MLYR. Then we proposed an emergent constraint method for EP projections based on this linear correlation and the observed SPs. Using this method, the model spread is evidently narrowed, which increases the credibility of projected future EP changes.

How to cite: Hu, Y., Lin, Y., Bao, J., and Deng, Y.: Constraining Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Using Typical Synoptic Patterns, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2650, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2650, 2025.

From July 29 to August 1, 2023, extreme heavy rainfall occurred in the Chinese HUABEI region. Heavy rainstorm occurred in the most areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province. The daily precipitation of 14 national meteorological observatories  exceeded the historical extreme value. The process intensity exceeded the three extreme rainstorm processes in the history of HUABEI region. Studying the causes of extreme heavy precipitation in HUABEI and evaluating the predictive performance of the model for extreme heavy precipitation is beneficial for improving the application and forecasting ability of the model. This article analyzes the weather scale characteristics and anomalies of this precipitation process from factors such as height field, wind field, divergence field, vorticity field, and water vapor. The dynamic and thermal structure of the vortex and the cause of the upper level continental high  are analyzed using the method of cyclone phase space map and full type vorticity equation. Finally, the predictive ability of the model for extreme precipitation is tested. The following main conclusions have been drawn:(1) The precipitation process is divided into two stages. Before the 31st, it was caused by the residual vortex circulation of the "Dussuri", with strong precipitation intensity and range. After the 31st, it was formed by the convergence of the easterly jet on the west side of the subtropical high pressure and its interaction with the terrain. Precipitation was mainly concentrated in the northern part of China, with weaker rainfall intensity compared to the previous period.(2) The key impact systems of this process are the 200hPa high trough and continental high pressure, the 500hPa blocking high pressure, and the residual circulation of the low-level "Dussuri". The divergence in front of the 200hPa high altitude trough is beneficial for maintaining upward movement in the North China region; At 500hPa, there is a blocking high pressure in the northern and eastern parts of North China, which is conducive to the maintenance of low-level vortex systems. The "Dussuri" convergence circulation is the triggering system of the process.(3) The water vapor conditions during this process were exceptionally good, mainly consisting of three water vapor transport paths: the southerly water vapor transport of the South China Sea monsoon, the eastward water vapor transport of the residual circulation of "Dussuri", and the southeast water vapor transport path of typhoon "Kanu".(4) During the northward movement, the residual vortex of the Dussuri maintains a quasi symmetric and warm center structure, with weak cold advection in the upper level of the vortex on the 30th.(5) The uneven vertical distribution of condensation latent heat heating generates negative vorticity in the upper troposphere, ensuring the stable maintenance of continental high pressure.(6) In global model forecasting, the CMA model cannot report a blocking high pressure above 96 hours of time. The EC deterministic model can predict heavy precipitation processes within a 120 hour time frame, and the ensemble forecast can have a predictable time frame of up to 7 days.

How to cite: guan, Y.: Analysis and Model Verification of Extreme rainfall Processes in Huabei of China in 2023, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2697, 2025.

This article introduces the five-year research plan of the project and the preliminary progress made over the past two years: 1. Implemented tracking observation experiments on the Mei-Yu frontal extreme precipitation associated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for the years 2023 and 2024; 2. Investigated the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of extreme precipitation related to multi-scale interactions and associated thermodynamic conditions; 3. Conducted studies on the microphysical structure and evolution simulation of extreme precipitation. To be specific, the mechanism of low-level jet formation is analyzed during the rainy season in the Yangtze River Basin in 2024.

How to cite: Cui, C. and Wang, B.: Preliminary results on the Mei-Yu Frontal Heavy Rainfall Tracking Observation Experiment and Related Studies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3219, 2025.

In this study, the microphysical characteristics of summer and winter liquid rainfall are analyzed by 4 Parsivel sites in Hubei Province in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during 2015-2018. The possible reasons for summer and winter DSD differences are also discussed. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:

(1) Hubei Province is dominated by stratified rainfall in winter, while summer includes convective, stratified, and mixed rainfall. Compared with winter, the average rain rate and Dm in summer are larger, the number concentration Nw is relatively smaller, while difference between δM is very small. The PDF distribution of Dm peak value are about 1.0 mm both in summer and winter, and the Dm data is skewed to the right while the Nw show the opposite.

(2) With increasing rain rate, the Dm increases in both summer and winter. For rain rate R < 2 mm h-1, there are larger Dm and smaller Nw in summer than that in winter, while for the rain rete R > 2 mm h-1 shows the opposite.

(3) There are differences in the μ-λ and Z-R relationships between summer and winter in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. The relationships also different from those in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

(4) The middle reaches of the Yangtze River are mainly influenced by the warm and humid air transport originates in the subtropical South Indian Ocean. In summer, the convective rainfall raindrops grow by collision–coalescence mechanism, and the break-up mechanism also plays an important role which makes smaller diameter. The ice particles could grow sufficiently and fall to the ground with enough time by the accretion mechanism in winter.

In summary, this study gives an insight into the seasonal characteristics of rainfall microphysics in summer and winter, which are very useful for radar QPE and numerical forecasting models modify in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. However, due to the limitation of observation data, more types of observation data and numerical models simulation should be included to understand the mechanism of the microphysical processes for future reach.

How to cite: Wang, B. and Fu, Z.: The seasonal characteristics of summer and winter raindrops size distribution in Central China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3232, 2025.

EGU25-3272 | Orals | AS1.1

Climate change will increase aircraft take-off distances and reduce payloads, but by how much? 

Jonny Williams, Paul Williams, Federica Guerrini, and Marco Venturini

Climate model output at 30 European airports (including 25 of the busiest) is used to investigate summer take-off distance required – TODR – and maximum take-off mass – MTOM – and how they may change in the future. We compare data from 2035–2064 to a historical baseline of 1985–2014 using three future forcing scenarios which represent low (SSP1-2.7), medium (SSP3-7.0), and high (SSP5-8.5) future emissions trajectories defined by the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs.

This work presents data for the A320 aircraft manufactured by Airbus but the calculation framework is widely applicable to any similar fixed-wing aircraft and uses entirely open-access input data.

We use 10 models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) which have a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity values; a measure of the amount of global warming they give for a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations.

We use a numerical scheme which considers the resultant forces on an aircraft in the runway acceleration phase of its take-off and show that 30-year average values of TODR could increase by up to 100 m by mid-century. There is, however, significant variability since daily data is used throughout.

We quantify the changing probability distribution of TODR using kernel density estimation and illustrate this using an example showing how increases in extreme daily maximum temperature could alter distributions of TODR.

Additionally, we project that the 99th percentile (a one in a hundred day event) of the TODR from 1985-2014 may by exceeded on as many as half the summer days for some sites in the future.

Four of the airports studied (Chios, Pantelleria, San Sebastian and Rome Ciampino) have runway lengths which are shorter than the TODR when the aircraft is carrying its maximum payload. This means that the weight they carry must be reduced to fulfil safety constraints, which will only become more stringent as temperatures increase further. Relative to the mean weight-restriction amount for the historical period, we find that the number of passengers may have to be reduced by up to 10-12 passengers per flight, again accompanied by a significantly increased chance of exceeding extreme historical values.

How to cite: Williams, J., Williams, P., Guerrini, F., and Venturini, M.: Climate change will increase aircraft take-off distances and reduce payloads, but by how much?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3272, 2025.

EGU25-3417 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Evolution and Cause Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation Process of Meiyu Along Yangtze River 

Houfu Zhou, Nan Ge, and Wen Qi

Based on the observational and forecast datasets from precipitation merging product, radiosonde, Doppler radar, wind profiler radar and ECMWF product, the evolution and causes of the heavy precipitation process of Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China from June 21 to 22, 2024 were analyzed. The results show as the followings. (1) The heavy precipitation was mainly distributed in the northern part of Hunan Province, the southeastern part of Hubei Province and the western part of Anhui Province, with the main period from 15:00 on June 21 to 15:00 on June 22, especially in the early morning of June 22. The rain belt was located to the north of the subtropical high, in the north of the low-level jet, and at the front side of the moving trough line. (2) The K index exceeded 38℃ in all areas, and the CAPE before and after this heavy precipitation process was over 800 J/kg and less than 100 J/kg, respectively, indicating the evolution characteristics of unstable atmospheric stratification as well as the energy accumulation and release. (3) In the early stage of this process, the surface high temperature was distributed to the south of Wuhan, and the near-surface convergence line extended from the eastern part of Henan Province to the central part of Hubei Province. In the middle stage of this process, the convergence line moved eastward. In the later stage of this process, there was a significant cold pool over the land surface along the Yangtze River. The near-surface high temperature and convergence line were the triggering mechanisms of the heavy precipitation, while the cold pool led to the gradual weakening of the precipitation. (4) The water vapor flux was mainly located in the northern part of Hunan Province, the eastern part of Hubei Province as well as the southern part of Anhui Province, and gradually moved eastward. The flux values in the middle and lower layers were relatively high in the early morning of June 22. There were two water vapor transport belts in the lower layer, corresponding to different heavy precipitation centers. (5) The approximately east-west oriented echo band moved from west to east through the forms of merging, strengthening and dissipating. The south side of the echo band was the mesoscale linear or hook-shaped strong echo accompanied by high echo top and strong VIL. The meso-β scale convective system was composed of several meso-γ scale convective cells, and the meso-γ scale convective cells caused strong cumulative precipitation through the ‘train effect’.

How to cite: Zhou, H., Ge, N., and Qi, W.: Evolution and Cause Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation Process of Meiyu Along Yangtze River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3417, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3417, 2025.

EGU25-3842 | Posters on site | AS1.1

 IAGOS estimates of climate-process costs for trans-Atlantic flights 

Corwin Wright

IAGOS, or the In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System project, is a European Infrastructure project consisting of scientific measurement packages attached to commercial aircraft. Operating since 1994, this programme provides a unique long-timeseries dataset of flight data across the globe, with thousands of flights per year providing a strong base for statistical studies.

Here, we use flight times derived from IAGOS metadata to quantify the role of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the solar cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on trans-Atlantic flight times. We do this both by subsetting the data in various ways and via regression methods. This allows us to statistically assess the effects of these large-scale atmospheric-dynamical processes on trans-Atlantic flight times. We also calculate the additional costs associated with these effects in terms of both carbon dioxide emissions and fuel costs, allowing us to understand how climate processes drive them.

Depending on season and direction of flights, we show that these four climate indices can explain as much as 1/3 of the total variance in trans-Atlantic flight times. At a flight-time level and particularly in winter, the NAO dominates flight times and is the most important factor in one-way fuel costs: flights at peak NAO+ can be as much as 83 minutes longer than the equivalent flight at peak NAO- when crossing the Atlantic. However, at a whole-dataset level, ENSO is shown to be much more important in driving net round-trip costs. We further estimate that the monthly cost of these four climate indices can be as high as 100 kT of additional CO2 or USD 20 million at 2023 flight volumes and fuel prices.

How to cite: Wright, C.:  IAGOS estimates of climate-process costs for trans-Atlantic flights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3842, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3842, 2025.

The MicroWave Humidity Sounder II (MWHS II) is a cross-track microwave sounder flying on FengYun (FY)-3C satellite. It has 15 channels ranging from 89.0 to 191.0 GHz, eight (channels 2-9) of which are located near 118.75 GHz along an oxygen absorption line, five (channels 11-15) of which are located near 183.31 GHz water vapor absorption line and the remaining two channels 1 and 10 are two window channels centered at 89.0 and 150.0 GHz. A new precipitation detection algorithm for 118GHz channels was developed based on the radiation characters of the double O2 absorption bands (118 and 50-60 GHz). Since both of the 118 GHz and 50-60 GHz oxygen absorption bands are sensitive to atmospheric temperature, the radiation observed in the two bands has a specific inherent constraint relationship under the clear-sky conditions. However, the frequencies of 118 GHz channels are approximately twice that of the 50-60 GHz channels, and the two bands have different absorption and scattering characteristics for atmospheric hydrometeors. The radiance transfer mode VDISORT was used to simulate the sensitivity of the 118 GHz and 50-60 GHz channels to five kinds of hydrometeors (cloud water, rainwater, ice, snow, and graupel) in the cloud atmosphere. The results show that the 50-60 GHz channels are more sensitive to rainwater, and the 118 GHz channels are more sensitive to the other four types of hydrometeors. Therefore, the inherent constraint of the observational radiance between 118 GHz and 50-60 GHz channels under clear-sky condition is no longer valid for a cloudy scenario. In this paper, the machine learning system TensorFlow was used to construct a model for predicting the brightness of 118 GHz channels using 50-60 GHz observations under clear-sky conditions, and the accuracy of the prediction model was validated using independent samples. Then this neural network-based predictive model was used for 118 GHz channel precipitation detection. When the difference between actual observed and predicted bright temperature for 118 GHz channel is more massive than three times of the standard deviation of the prediction model, it is thought that the MWHS II observation is contaminated by precipitation or cloud. At last, this new precipitation detection algorithm for 118 GHz was validated by simulated measurements. The results show that both the precipitation detection POD (test probability) and PC (correct rate) for 118 GHz channels are above 90%.

How to cite: Guo, Y.: A precipitation detection algorithm for 118GHz channels based on FY-3C MWHS II and FY-3C MWTS II, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3880, 2025.

EGU25-4138 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Methodological Focus on Hyperparameters for Different Rain Nowcasting Models 

Baptiste Guigal, Aymeric Chazottes, Laurent Barthès, Nicolas Viltard, Erwan Le Bouar, Emmanuel Moreau, and Cécile Mallet

Precipitation nowcasting plays an essential role in operational weather forecasting services. Sudden precipitation events have significant socio-economic impacts, including natural disasters like flash floods. This challenge is becoming increasingly critical as climate change alters weather patterns and the frequency of extreme weather events continues to increase.

Over the last decade, radar observations, offering high temporal and spatial resolution, have facilitated the development of machine learning methods for precipitation nowcasting. Once trained, these methods are well suited to processing large datasets with low latency, especially in a real-time context. Recent advances in the field of nowcasting have focused on optimizing model architectures, improving loss functions for imbalanced data, and integrating multivariate inputs, including radar and satellite observations.

This study explores some critical hyperparameters, such as temporal context length, edge effect during training, influence of the output horizons prediction, and convolution kernel size. To do this, we investigate the performance of several models, including both machine learning approaches from different families, in particular SmaAt-Unet, ConvLSTM , and DGMR (trained on UK rains) , as well as non-machine learning methods such as  STEPS. An eleven years consistent radar precipitation dataset covering the Paris region was set up from Météo-France mosaic. Nine years were used for training machine learning models, and two years were reserved to evaluate the models’ performances. To assess the model in different weather conditions, the data set is divided into four groups with distinct characteristics corresponding to various meteorological phenomena. To ensure consistent evaluation, we evaluated the models on the same two-year test dataset, focusing on three criteria, namely: spatial consistency (Pearson correlation coefficient), location accuracy (CSI), and precipitation intensity (MSE).

Our analysis reveals that machine learning models consistently outperform traditional optical flow methods, with notable variations in performance across timescales and rainfall intensities. We also highlight that performance is nearly identical for all models in the presence of stratiform rain, while there are substantial differences in the convective rain group. Additionally, we show that for deep learning models, considering edge effects during training prevents the propagation of inevitable errors and helps avoid the appearance of ghost rain cells at the edges of the map. Furthermore, we show that the size of the kernels of the first layers plays an important role and must be large enough to allow correlation between distant pixels.

Finally, our study provides guidelines for the development of precipitation nowcasting models.

How to cite: Guigal, B., Chazottes, A., Barthès, L., Viltard, N., Le Bouar, E., Moreau, E., and Mallet, C.: Methodological Focus on Hyperparameters for Different Rain Nowcasting Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4138, 2025.

EGU25-5038 | Posters on site | AS1.1

On the Dynamical Core of Aeolus 2.0: An Atmospheric Model Using a Moist-Convective Thermal Rotating Shallow Water Framework 

Masoud Rostami, Stefan Petri, Bijan Fallah, and Farahnaz Fazel-Rastgar

This study introduces Aeolus 2.0[1, 2], a novel multilayer moist-convective Thermal Rotating Shallow Water (mcTRSW) model designed to simulate atmospheric dynamics under various forcings, such as increased radiative or thermal forcing, as well as the effects of latent heat release and radiative transfer on meso- and large-scale dynamics. The model incorporates a novel moist-convective scheme that respects conservation laws, a new bulk aerodynamic scheme for sea surface evaporation and sensible heat flux, and provides a computationally efficient yet physically robust framework, bridging the gap between idealized models and complex general circulation models. Aeolus 2.0 integrates barotropic and baroclinic processes, enabling detailed investigations of phenomena such as zonal wind variability, heatwaves, and seasonal energy fluxes.

The model has already been applied to various atmospheric phenomena, such as simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)[3], large-scale localized extreme heatwaves[4], and atmospheric responses to increased radiative forcing during solstices and equinoxes[1]. In this presentation, we showcase the results of the latter. The findings highlight significant changes in zonal wind velocity and meridional temperature gradients, with notable hemispheric asymmetry. Specifically, increased radiative forcing enhances subtropical westerly jet velocities and mid-latitude temperatures during the solstices, while reducing polar cyclone zonal wind velocities in the affected hemisphere. Poleward eddy heat fluxes were consistently observed across hemispheres, and heatwave intensity and duration were amplified over both land and ocean regions.

References:

[1] Rostami, M., Petri, S., Fallah, B., Fazel-Rastgar, F. (2025). Aeolus 2.0's thermal rotating shallow water model: A new paradigm for simulating extreme heatwaves, westerly jet intensification, and more. Physics of Fluids, 37 (1), 016604. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0244908.

[2] Rostami, M., Petri, S., Guimaräes, S.O., Fallah, B. (2024). Open-source stand-alone version of atmosphere model Aeolus 2.0 Software. Geoscience Data Journal, 11, 1086–1093. https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.249. (Link to Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10054154)

[3] Rostami, M., Zhao, B. & Petri, S. (2022). On the genesis and dynamics of madden–Julian oscillation-like structure formed by equatorial adjustment of localized heating. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 148, 3788–3813.  https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4388.

[4] Rostami, M., Severino, L., Petri, S., & Hariri, S. (2023). Dynamics of localized extreme heatwaves in the mid-latitude atmosphere: A conceptual examination. Atmospheric Science Letters, e1188. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1188 .

 

How to cite: Rostami, M., Petri, S., Fallah, B., and Fazel-Rastgar, F.: On the Dynamical Core of Aeolus 2.0: An Atmospheric Model Using a Moist-Convective Thermal Rotating Shallow Water Framework, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5038, 2025.

Based on the brightness temperature observed by the Fengyun-4A satellite, eight hundred mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are identified in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin during the warm seasons of 2018–2021, and these MCSs are categorized into the quasistationary (QS) type and the outward-moving (OM) type. Afterward, the initiations of the MCSs are backward tracked using a hybrid method of areal overlapping and optical flow. Then, the intensity, evolution and distribution of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and radar composite reflectivity (CR) associated with MCSs are explored.

The QS-MCSs primarily occur in July and August and are mainly initiated in the afternoon. The OM-MCSs mostly occur in June and July with two initiation peaks at noon and late night, respectively. The QS-MCSs are mainly initiated in mountainous areas. In contrast, the OM-MCSs are mainly initiated in plain areas. Compared to the OM-MCSs, the QS-MCSs show notable diurnal variation in intensity and develop more rapidly. The geographical distribution of CG lightning associated with MCSs shows that the highest occurrence tends to appear over the transition zone of the Poyang Lake Plain and the surrounding mountains. The CG lightning associated with MCSs features a relative lower proportion of negative CG lightning occurrences. An overall negative correlation between brightness temperature and the peak current of CG lightning is documented with seasonal variations. The advection of ice particles associated from convective cores into nearby stratiform regions caused by relatively stronger mid-to-upper-level winds, may explain the positive correlations in May and September. A time lag of 0–2 h between the CG lightning occurrence peak and the MCS extent maximum is found. As the MCS develops, the proportion of convective clouds decreases, the proportion of nonprecipitating anvil increases, and the proportion of stratiform consistently maintains 50%–60% of the MCS extent, dominating throughout its life span. The main region for stratiform is primarily in the southern part of the MCS, while convective clouds are mainly in the northern part, possibly due to the influence of the Meiyu front.

 

How to cite: Sun, J. and Fu, Y.: The Intensity, Evolution, and Distribution of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning and Radar Reflectivity throughout the Life Cycle of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Southern China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5335, 2025.

EGU25-5755 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Informing the Unification of a Single Cloud Fraction Scheme in the Met Office’s Unified Model   

Francesca Cottrell, Paul Barrett, Steven Abel, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Paul Field

The choice of cloud fraction parametrization scheme in weather and climate models significantly influences model performance. Currently in the Met Office’s Unified Model (UM), two different approaches are used to represent sub-grid clouds: a prognostic scheme in the global atmosphere and land (GAL) configuration, and a diagnostic scheme in the regional atmosphere and land (RAL) configuration.  Historically, prognostic schemes have performed better at climate resolutions where memory is important, whilst diagnostic schemes have been sufficient for higher resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP). Due to recent increases in computational power, both climate simulations and NWP are being run at higher resolutions. This blurs the boundary between the two configurations, and it would therefore be beneficial to unify a single large-scale cloud fraction scheme which works seamlessly across all resolutions. 

A framework for testing candidate cloud fraction schemes has been developed, using high resolution (300m grid spacing) simulations. This grid spacing was chosen as previous comparisons of the UM with observational data show a cloud fraction scheme is required, however most deep convection will be resolved at this resolution and so there is no need for a convection scheme.  

We investigate four different cloud fraction schemes: Smith (diagnostic), Bi-Modal (diagnostic), PC2 (prognostic), and a new hybrid cloud scheme combining PC2 for ice and Bi-Modal for liquid. We also look at two cloud microphysics schemes: Wilson & Ballard (single moment), and Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM; double moment).  

Simulations of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus cloud regimes have been performed over a south UK domain for several case study dates. Through comparisons of rainfall rates and storm cell sizes against 1 km radar observations, it’s been demonstrated that all model configurations overpredict the number of small cells even at this high resolution, particularly GAL9 which also hugely overpredicts rainfall rates. Further comparisons against 3D radar composites provide information on timing and morphology errors. In addition, comparisons against the observations from the Wessex UK Summertime Convection Experiment (WesCon) provide further constraints for single-site model output for parameters including liquid water path and cloud-base height. Together, these comparisons will help to identify the configuration that best represents observed cloud at high resolutions, thereby informing the development of a unified physics configuration.   

How to cite: Cottrell, F., Barrett, P., Abel, S., Whitall, M., Williams, K., and Field, P.: Informing the Unification of a Single Cloud Fraction Scheme in the Met Office’s Unified Model  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5755, 2025.

Cloudburst is a new post-processing system at the Met Office, leveraging Amazon Web Services (AWS) to provide a route for easy deployment of post processing pipelines allowing for the generation of replacement data as legacy sources are retired. The focus is primarily on generating diagnostics where consistency across multiple variables is required to provide a coherent weather narrative. Thus far all provided parameters have utilised the Met Office’s global and UK deterministic models but the system is made to be versatile so ensemble forecasts could be used in future.

The diagnostics generated in Cloudburst use code from the open-source IMPROVER (Integrated Model post-PROcessing and VERification) repository, which offers a versatile toolbox of post-processing plugins. By enhancing this toolbox with new plugins and functionalities, we promote the reusability of post-processing components, fostering collaboration between the Blended Probabilistic Forecast team and the Cloudburst team. Any code added to the IMPROVER repository by Cloudburst is made as adaptable as possible so that it could be applied to deterministic forecasts or ensemble members.

In this presentation we will describe the first diagnostic generated within Cloudburst: precipitation type. This diagnostic was required to be consistent with the rain and snow rate so these were also rederived from the precipitation rate. Precipitation type, along with rain and snow rates, have now been operationalised and the data sent downstream for customers.

How to cite: Spelman, M.: Cloudburst: A Platform for Running Post-Processing Workflows at the Met Office, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5870, 2025.

EGU25-6014 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Data-driven dynamic motion field generation for rainfall nowcasting 

Ruben Imhoff, Daniel A. Blázquez Martín, Riccardo Taormina, and Marc Schleiss

Rainfall nowcasting algorithms rely primarily on extrapolation, where recent radar rainfall observations are projected forward in time based on a motion field that is determined with past data. While additional (stochastic) processes may be incorporated, as is for example done in the pySTEPS models, extrapolation remains the fundamental mechanism. Although the motion field estimates are robust, they assume a steady state in the motion field for the future. This assumption can face significant challenges in maintaining accuracy over time, especially during convective weather events characterized by rapid changes in precipitation patterns and their movement.

In this study, we focus on three objectives: 1) identifying the current errors and uncertainties in the steady-state motion field derivation using pySTEPS, 2) the construction of a dynamic motion field derivation approach using a new deep-learning model, MotioNNet, and 3) the development of ensemble motion fields for MotioNNet. MotioNNet is a U-Net based deep-learning architecture, which uses the past radar images (five in this study) in combination with the estimated static motion field from pySTEPS to estimate the deviation from the provided static motion field per grid cell with increasing lead time. For the ensemble generation in MotioNNet, we tested probabilistic techniques such as SpatialDropout and Monte Carlo dropout.

We trained and tested our model on C-band weather radar data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), using 10,000 rainfall events. These events were selected to include cases with both intense precipitation and significant motion errors. Our results show that the static motion field approach results in average motion field errors of 1 – 3 km h-1 at the start of the forecast and increases to 4 – 8 km h-1 (on average, and locally sometimes much higher) at a lead time of 90 minutes. The dynamic motion field estimates of MotioNNet improve the motion prediction accuracy by approximately 13%. The improvement is much higher for structured and stable events (up to 45%), but almost negligible for localized thunderstorm events. The results of the ensemble construction in MotioNNet indicate that MotioNNet is capable of adding perturbations in space where most uncertainty takes place, especially for structured and stable events. This is an advantage compared to the spatially uniform approach of pySTEPS. However, the spread of the ensembles is still underestimated, even more so than with pySTEPS, indicating that the uncertainty in the forecast is not yet well represented.

We conclude that the hybrid MotioNNet approach can substitute and enhance parts of the motion field module in pySTEPS. MotioNNet refines initial motion field estimates, rather than replacing them, which leads to a modular approach that fits well in the overall pySTEPS framework. We expect that the dynamic motion field approach from MotioNNet will aid in further enhancing the predictability of (high-intensity) rainfall events for short lead times, especially for structured events where motion errors currently play a role in the forecast error.

How to cite: Imhoff, R., Blázquez Martín, D. A., Taormina, R., and Schleiss, M.: Data-driven dynamic motion field generation for rainfall nowcasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6014, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6014, 2025.

EGU25-6937 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Lead time-dependent postprocessing of 2-meter temperature forecast using a multivariate generative machine learning model  

Sameer Balaji Uttarwar, Jieyu Chen, Sebastian Lerch, and Bruno Majone

The spatiotemporal dependence structure in postprocessed weather forecast variables is essential for reliable hydrological and socio-economic applications. However, in univariate postprocessing, where statistical or advanced machine learning techniques are applied independently in each margin, the multivariate dependence structure present in the raw ensemble forecasts is lost. To restore the disrupted spatial or temporal dependence structure of univariately postprocessed forecasts, copula-based methods are traditionally applied as an additional step that utilizes dependency information from raw ensemble forecasts or historical observations. However, such a two-step framework faces difficulty incorporating exogenous variables to model the dependence structure. To overcome these limitations, a multivariate non-parametric data-driven distributional regression postprocessing technique based on a generative neural network is employed to draw samples directly from multivariate predictive distribution as output [1]. This study focuses on preserving temporal dependency and investigates the performance of a multivariate generative model against two-step approaches to postprocess a 2-meter temperature forecast with a one-month lead time over the Trentino-South Tyrol region in the northeastern Italian Alps. The forecast dataset is a fifth-generation seasonal weather forecast system (SEAS5) generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has a 0.125° x 0.125° horizontal grid resolution with 25 ensemble members over a reforecast period from 1981 to 2016. The reference dataset is the high-resolution (250 m x 250 m) gridded observational data over the region. The results are presented using multivariate proper scoring rules (i.e., energy and variogram scores) to measure the overall discrepancy and dependence structure in the postprocessed forecast. The performance analysis reveals that the multivariate generative postprocessing model outperforms the two-step approach over the entire region.

 

References:

[1] Chen, J., Janke, T., Steinke, F. & Lerch, S. Generative Machine Learning Methods for Multivariate Ensemble Postprocessing. Ann. Appl. Stat. 18, 159–183 (2024).

How to cite: Uttarwar, S. B., Chen, J., Lerch, S., and Majone, B.: Lead time-dependent postprocessing of 2-meter temperature forecast using a multivariate generative machine learning model , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6937, 2025.

EGU25-7540 | Posters on site | AS1.1

A Study on Catenary Icing Prediction Method Integrating Physical Modeling and Transformer-Based Deep Learning 

Xiaowei Huai, Wenjun Kang, Bo Li, Jing Luo, Wen Dai, and Rongtao Liu

This paper proposes a novel method for predicting icing on overhead contact lines by integrating physical modeling with Transformer-based deep learning, addressing the limitations of traditional meteorological models in complex weather conditions and terrains. The method combines physical factors such as meteorological data (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed) and topographic features to construct a physical model for initial predictions, while leveraging the Transformer model's robust capability in processing time-series data to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the icing process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms traditional single meteorological models in prediction accuracy across various weather conditions, particularly excelling in extreme weather and complex terrain scenarios. This approach provides reliable technical support for disaster prevention, mitigation, and early warning systems in the transportation sector, offering substantial practical value for engineering applications.

How to cite: Huai, X., Kang, W., Li, B., Luo, J., Dai, W., and Liu, R.: A Study on Catenary Icing Prediction Method Integrating Physical Modeling and Transformer-Based Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7540, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7540, 2025.

EGU25-7697 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Characteristics of the Macro- and Micro-Structures of Different Grades of Fog in Jiangsu, China 

Hongbin Wang, Zhiwei Zhang, and Duanyang Liu

Based on the minute-resolution meteorological elements data observed at 70 automatic weather stations in Jiangsu, the second-resolution sounding data of 3 sounding stations and the fog droplet spectrum data of 21 dense fog events, from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2023, the spatial and temporal distribution, boundary layer structure and microphysical structure characteristics of the fog at different grades in Jiangsu were analyzed. The results show that in recent years, the number of fog hours in Jiangsu are distributed along the Yangtze River and to the north along the Huaihe River. The average annual fogging time at each station is 318.5h, the strong dense fog and extremely dense fog were mainly concentrated along the Huaihe River and its north, accounting for 16.4% of the total fog hours. The probability of occurrence of fog in Jiangsu is the highest at 05:50, and the probability of occurrence of fog in winter, spring, summer and autumn is the highest at 07:10, 05:50, 05:20 and 05:50, respectively. The temperature structure of fog at different grades between 0 and 1500 m has inversion layer, and with the increase of fog intensity, the inversion intensity increases. And the relative humidity is saturated in the lower layer, but with the increase of fog intensity, the relative humidity of upper layer decreases. With the increase of fog intensity, the number of fog drops of different sizes all increase, and the spectrum of fog drops expands obviously when strong dense fog or extremely dense fog occurs.

How to cite: Wang, H., Zhang, Z., and Liu, D.: Characteristics of the Macro- and Micro-Structures of Different Grades of Fog in Jiangsu, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7697, 2025.

EGU25-7761 | Orals | AS1.1

Future Satellite Observations of the Dynamics and Microphysics of Convection from the NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) 

Scott Braun, Pavlos Kollias, Jie Gong, Yuli Liu, Nobuhiro Takahashi, Takuji Kubota, Helene Brogniez, Thierry Amiot, John Yorks, and Daniel Cecil

Atmospheric convection plays a fundamental role in the vertical redistribution of atmospheric constituents, in driving atmospheric circulation, and in creating severe weather conditions that put life and property at risk. Cloud and precipitation processes in convection and their related release of latent heat are coupled to the rate of vertical air motion in convective updrafts and downdrafts. Observations of vertical air motion in convection have generally been confined to suborbital observations of limited areas and periods of time, but understanding the global distribution of convection is very much needed.

 

The NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) was formulated based on the NASA 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey to address key objectives tied to aerosols, clouds, convection, and precipitation. As of March 2024, the AOS constellation consists of four individual projects: 1) AOS-Storm, in partnership with JAXA and CNES, flying in a 55° inclined orbit and focusing on convective precipitation, vertical air motions, and convective ice cloud properties; 2) AOS-Sky, a satellite carrying a suite of passive sensors including a multi-angle polarimeter, passive microwave radiometer, and thin ice cloud far infrared imaging radiometer flying in tandem with a CSA-provided spacecraft (called HAWCsat) carrying aerosol and moisture limb imagers; 3) an Italian Space Agency led mission, in partnership with NASA, carrying a multi-frequency elastic backscatter lidar with Raman channels for measurement of aerosol, cloud, ocean, and land properties; and 4) an expected cloud profiling radar to be competed as part of an announcement of opportunity.

 

This talk will focus on the AOS-Storm project consisting of the JAXA Precipitation Measuring Mission (PMM) and the CNES Convective Core Observations through MicrOwave Derivatives in the trOpics (C2OMODO) mission, with NASA providing a spacecraft bus for one of the CNES radiometers and launch of both satellites.  The PMM mission includes a JAXA-provided spacecraft and Ku-band Doppler radar that will provide radar reflectivity across a 255-km swath (similar to TRMM and GPM) and Doppler velocity measurements at nadir in moderate to strong convective systems. The CNES C2OMODO mission consists of two identical passive microwave radiometers (channels near 89, 183, and 325 GHz) flying in tandem with a temporal spacing expected to be in the 30-120 second range. The time-differenced passive microwave brightness temperatures will characterize the rate of change of ice water path and anvil size as well as the vertical flux of ice mass. We will highlight recent simulations of expected performance for measurements of vertical air motions and ice water path in convective clouds.

How to cite: Braun, S., Kollias, P., Gong, J., Liu, Y., Takahashi, N., Kubota, T., Brogniez, H., Amiot, T., Yorks, J., and Cecil, D.: Future Satellite Observations of the Dynamics and Microphysics of Convection from the NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7761, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7761, 2025.

EGU abstract 2025

NP5.2 EDI: Advances in statistical post-processing, blending, and verification of deterministic and probabilistic forecasts

The challenge of uncertain observations: Probabilistic verification of decadal predictions with high temporal resolution

Verification plays an important role in the evaluation and the development of climate predictions. With new developments in the field and ever larger availability of computational resources, temporal high resolutions become an option. But we often do not make use of the full temporal distribution and much too often we still rely on temporal averages to reduce the dimensionality of the data to make a verification with common metrics manageable. One of the reasons is the challenge how to verify in an understandable manner probabilistic model predictions with probabilistic, uncertain observations.

Tools for probabilistic verification are available, like the Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS), but are often defined for perfect observations. Furthermore, many tools are for the wider community hard to comprehend and are as such often not applied. This poses the question on how to verify predictions on the basis of current imperfect usage of metrics within the field and how to communicate prediction skill in general. 

This contribution will address two main approaches and apply it to the comparison between a decadal prediction and the associated projection (historical simulation), with an assimilation simulation as an observational reference. In the first we will ask how to communicate verification results for a wider community. For this we will look at framing the skill as yearly matchups between the two model results. Basing on the Integrated Quadratic Distance each year determines which model result is closer to the observations and the years how often one result was better than the other leads to our verification result. In a second approach it will be discussed to find modifications of some of the most applied metrics in our field, Anomaly Correlation (ACC) and Root-Mean Square (RMS), towards uncertain observations. While these metrics are imperfect, they allow an easy communication for people already applying them. Differences in their interpretation will be discussed, giving us insights about how uncertain observations change our understanding of a good prediction. We address also significance estimation and it will be highlighted why we need to find easy comprehendible approaches to handle uncertain observations in the future.

How to cite: Düsterhus, A.: The challenge of uncertain observations: Probabilistic verification of decadal predictions with high temporal resolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8034, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8034, 2025.

EGU25-8427 | Orals | AS1.1

A multi-criteria evaluation of the performance of bias correction using Delta Quantile Mapping for simulated precipitation over Germany 

Edgar Espitia, Yanet Díaz Esteban, Moritz Haupt, Muralidhar Adakudlu, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Elena Xoplaki

Bias correction techniques are often used as effective and reliable approaches to improve the representation of current and past conditions in climate models. This study aims to evaluate the performance of Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) as a bias correction method for daily precipitation simulations from climate models: the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON), the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and the Regional Climate Model (REMO) at a spatial resolution of 3 km over Germany. The dataset consists of historical observations from HYRAS and climate model simulations between 1961 and 1990, split into a calibration period (1961–1980) and an independent validation period (1981–1990). To assess performance, we considered four aspects: 1) sequence of events, 2) distribution of values, 3) spatial structure, and 4) visual inspection of distance metrics, ultimately providing an integrative qualitative ranking across these aspects. Performance metrics included correlation, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), and error metrics such as BIAS, mean square error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). Additional metrics considered were the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, Perkins Skill Score (Sscore), probability density function (PDF), 80th, 90th, and 95th percentiles, and spatial autocorrelation. As a preliminary assessment of the simulated precipitation from ICON, results show only slight improvements in the time and spatial distribution of precipitation metrics. For example, the KS statistic improved from 0.0314 to 0.0190, while the Sscore improved from 0.0314 to 0.0195 when comparing HYRAS vs. ICON raw and HYRAS vs. ICON bias-corrected using QDM, respectively. Therefore, limited improvement is expected from bias correction when the climate model already performs well, whereas significant improvements can be achieved when the climate models perform only acceptably.

How to cite: Espitia, E., Díaz Esteban, Y., Haupt, M., Adakudlu, M., Vlachopoulos, O., and Xoplaki, E.: A multi-criteria evaluation of the performance of bias correction using Delta Quantile Mapping for simulated precipitation over Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8427, 2025.

EGU25-8449 | Posters on site | AS1.1

The crossing-point quantile: an optimal point-forecast in terms of ROC areas.  

Zied Ben Bouallegue and Maxime Taillardat

A point-forecast is defined as a single-value forecast expressed in the unit of a variable of interest. A deterministic forecast for 2m temperature at Vienna tomorrow is a point-forecast. Point-forecasts are required by some forecast users and for various applications. When an ensemble prediction system is at hand, a point-forecast can take the form of a distribution functional such as the ensemble mean or an ensemble quantile. In this context, we introduce a new type of point-forecast based on the concept of crossing-point forecast (Ben Bouallègue, 2021). We argue that this self-adaptive forecast should be better suited for some users than other point-forecasts. More precisely, we demonstrate that the so-called crossing-point quantile is an optimal forecast in terms of Pierce Skill Score (or equivalently in terms of area under the ROC curve) for any event of interest.  

Ben Bouallègue Z (2021), On the verification of the crossing-point forecast, Tellus A. DOI:10.1080/16000870.2021.1913007 

How to cite: Ben Bouallegue, Z. and Taillardat, M.: The crossing-point quantile: an optimal point-forecast in terms of ROC areas. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8449, 2025.

EGU25-9468 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Improvements to NWP visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing 

Katharine Hurst and Gavin Evans

Accurate visibility forecasting is essential for aviation, road safety, and maritime operations as well as communicating the weather on a daily basis to the public. Despite advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, it is well understood in the forecasting community that NWP visibility forecasts are inherently poor, often suffering from calibration issues and systematic biases. In post-processing we can enhance skill, however, it is very difficult to add skill when the input data are particularly poor, so this diagnostic remains a known problem. 

This study explores the application of different parametric and non-parametric statistical post-processing techniques to enhance the accuracy and reliability of visibility forecasts. The chosen method will build upon a new visibility scheme at the Met Office, VERA (Visibility Employing Realistic Aerosol), which uses a more physically realistic representation of the condensation nuclei required to form fog and therefore produces a better distribution of visibility for statistical post-processing to work with. 

The calibration methods included in this study include Quantile Regression Random Forests, Reliability Calibration, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, and finally Distributional Regression Networks using truncated normal and log normal Continuous Ranked Probability Score loss functions, as well as threshold weighted variants of these loss functions. These methods are tailored, where appropriate, to better support the characteristics of visibility data. 

The methodology is tested on an extensive training dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which spans 20 years of reforecasts and several European countries capturing a wide range of visibility conditions, including the rarer low visibility events which are most impactful. 

Initial results demonstrate that Quantile Regression Random Forests post-processed forecasts show a marked reduction in Root Mean Square Error compared to raw NWP outputs, and work is in progress to compare this to other methods. These improvements, so far, highlight the great potential of statistical post-processing in refining visibility predictions and supporting decision-making in weather-sensitive sectors. 

How to cite: Hurst, K. and Evans, G.: Improvements to NWP visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9468, 2025.

Lightning, hail, severe turbulence and severe icing associated with cumulonimbus clouds (Cb) present a significant safety hazard to air traffic and can impact the comfort and timeliness of a flight. The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) facilitates safe and efficient flight planning by providing global forecasts of key meteorological hazards. The next generation of WAFS will provide probabilistic forecasts of these hazards, including cumulonimbus clouds.

At the Met Office, these forecasts are currently made using three simple threshold tests applied to parameters from MOGREPS-G, a global NWP ensemble. These thresholds are used as a proxy for the occurrence of cumulonimbus clouds in the NWP data.

In this work, a series of deep learning models have been trained to predict the occurrence of cumulonimbus in global satellite observations using a wider set of parameters from the control member of MOGREPS-G. The purpose of the training is for the deep learning model to learn the representation of a cumulonimbus in the NWP data in a supervised manner. The model predictions are then applied to the whole ensemble to produce a probability forecast of cumulonimbus occurrence.

A range of loss functions were used during model training and verification to account for spatial information at a range of scales. Different loss functions were also used to enhance the reward for correct forecasts of the relatively rare cumulonimbus clouds.

Some of the trained models are shown to have greater skill than a baseline using the threshold test method. The model characteristics change depending on the choice of loss function used during training.

Further work is needed to explore how to make predictions at a range of lead times and how to use inputs from the whole ensemble.

How to cite: Creswick, A.: A deep learning approach for probabilistic forecasts of cumulonimbus clouds from NWP data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9783, 2025.

EGU25-9837 | Orals | AS1.1

Probabilistic Postprocessing of Hourly Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts Using UNet 

Marcos Esquivel González, Albano González, Juan Carlos Pérez, Juan Pedro Díaz, and Pierre Simon Tondreau

Title: Probabilistic Postprocessing of Hourly Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts Using UNet 

Authors: Marcos Esquivel-González, Albano González, Juan Carlos Pérez, Juan Pedro Díaz, Pierre Simon Tondreau

Affiliation of authors: Grupo de Observación de la Tierra y la Atmósfera (GOTA), Avenida Astrofísico Francisco Sánchez, s/n, La Laguna, 38200, Canary Islands, Spain

Abstract: Reliable precipitation forecasting is crucial in sectors like public safety, agriculture and water management. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which form the backbone of modern forecasting, are prone to errors due to their limitations and the chaotic behavior of equations, requiring postprocessing to improve accuracy and quantify uncertainties. Thus, this study evaluates probabilistic postprocessing models tailored for the Canary Islands, with the aim of enhancing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble forecasting accuracy in hourly precipitation forecast. UNet-based models were explored using two approaches,  one incorporating  the full set of km-scale convection-permitting ensemble forecast simulations (25) and another applying dimensionality reduction via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and feature selection methods. These models were compared to traditional benchmarks like the Censored Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) with Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) and the Analog Ensemble method. In the analysis of the results, not only the reliability of the predictions for the set of available meteorological stations was considered, but also the generalization capacity of the UNet models to obtain precipitation predictions for the whole region.

In general, UNet models outperformed traditional approaches. The UNet with PCA excelled in probabilistic and deterministic metrics but struggled in regions without weather station data. Conversely, the UNet with feature selection, while slightly less accurate overall station locations, showed better generalization to unseen locations, maintaining consistent performance across the region and reducing computational demand. Additionally, the Integrated Gradients technique, an interpretability method that quantifies the contribution of each input feature to a model’s predictions by analyzing gradients, was employed to evaluate the impact of input variables on model performance. This analysis revealed that the integration of digital terrain elevation data significantly contributed to the UNet's outputs, underscoring the importance of topographic data in rainfall prediction.

How to cite: Esquivel González, M., González, A., Pérez, J. C., Díaz, J. P., and Tondreau, P. S.: Probabilistic Postprocessing of Hourly Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts Using UNet, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9837, 2025.

EGU25-10090 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Precipitation Downscaling Using Dynamical and Neural Network Approaches. 

Bijan Fallah and Masoud Rostami

High-resolution climate projections are crucial for assessing the future impacts of climate change. Statistical, dynamic, or hybrid climate data downscaling is often employed to create the datasets required for impact modelling. In this study, we utilize the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) version 6.0, a regional climate model, to investigate the advantages of dynamically downscaling a general circulation model (GCM) from CMIP6, with a focus on Central Asia (CA). The CCLM, running at a 0.22° horizontal resolution, is driven by the MPI-ESM1-2-HR GCM (at 1° spatial resolution) for the historical period 1985–2014 and projections for 2019–2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 (Fallah et al., 2025). Using the CHIRPS gridded observation dataset for evaluation, we assess the performance of the CCLM driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis over the historical period.

The added value of CCLM, particularly over mountainous areas in CA, is evident, with a reduction in mean absolute error and bias of climatological precipitation by 5 mm/day for summer and 3 mm/day for annual values (Fallah et al., 2024). While no error reduction is achieved for winter, the frequency of extreme precipitation events improves in the CCLM simulations. Future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in CA by the century’s end, particularly under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The number of days with more than 20 mm of precipitation increases by more than 90, and the annual 99th percentile of total precipitation increases by over 9 mm/day in mountainous areas.

A convolutional neural network (CNN) is also trained to map GCM simulations to their dynamically downscaled CCLM counterparts. The CNN successfully emulates the GCM-CCLM chain across large areas of CA but demonstrates reduced skill when applied to other GCM-CCLM chains. This downscaling approach and CNN architecture provide an alternative to traditional methods and could be a valuable tool for the scientific community involved in downscaling CMIP6 models (Harder et al., 2023).

In future work, we aim to extend this approach by training a neural network model to map the available GCM-RCM model chains for CORDEX-EU and applying the trained model to decadal prediction ICON simulations. This will enable the production of CORDEX-EU-like regional ICON simulations, bridging the gap between global and regional climate information on decadal timescales. By integrating decadal predictions into the framework, we aim to enhance the usability of regionalized climate data for short-term climate planning and decision-making.

References:

  • Fallah, B., Russo, E., Menz, C., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., and Hattermann, F. F.: Anthropogenic influence on extreme temperature and precipitation in Central Asia, Sci. Rep., 13, 6854, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33921-6, 2023.
  • Fallah, B., Menz, C., Russo, E., Harder, P., Hoffmann, P., Didovets, I., and Hattermann, F. F.: Climate Model Downscaling in Central Asia: A Dynamical and a Neural Network Approach, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-227, accepted, 2025.
  • Harder, P., Hernandez-Garcia, A., Ramesh, V., Yang, Q., Sattegeri, P., Szwarcman, D., Watson, C., and Rolnick, D.: Hard-Constrained Deep Learning for Climate Downscaling, J. Mach. Learn. Res., 24, 1–40, 2023.

How to cite: Fallah, B. and Rostami, M.: Precipitation Downscaling Using Dynamical and Neural Network Approaches., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10090, 2025.

EGU25-10119 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Pavement Temperature Forecasts Based on Model Output Statistics: Experiments for Highways in Jiangsu, China 

Shoupeng Zhu, Yang Lyu, Hongbin Wang, Linyi Zhou, and Chengying Zhu

Forecasts on transportation meteorology, such as pavement temperature, are becoming increasingly important in the face of global warming and frequent disruptions from extreme weather and climate events. In this study, we propose a pavement temperature forecast model based on stepwise regression—model output statistics (SRMOS) at the short-term timescale, using highways in Jiangsu, China, as examples. Experiments demonstrate that the SRMOS model effectively calibrates against the benchmark of the linear regression model based on surface air temperature (LRT). The SRMOS model shows a reduction in mean absolute errors by 0.7–1.6 °C, with larger magnitudes observed for larger biases in the LRT forecasts. Both forecasts exhibit higher accuracy in predicting minimum nighttime temperatures compared to maximum daytime temperatures. Additionally, it overall shows increasing biases from the north to the south, and the SRMOS superiority is greater over the south with larger initial LRT biases. Predictor importance analysis indicates that temperature, moisture, and larger-scale background are basically the key predictors in the SRMOS model for pavement temperature forecasts, of which the air temperature is the most crucial factor in the model’s construction. Although larger-scale circulation backgrounds are generally characterized by relatively low importance, their significance increases with longer lead times. The presented results demonstrate the considerable skill of the SRMOS model in predicting pavement temperatures, highlighting its potential in disaster prevention for extreme transportation meteorology events.

How to cite: Zhu, S., Lyu, Y., Wang, H., Zhou, L., and Zhu, C.: Pavement Temperature Forecasts Based on Model Output Statistics: Experiments for Highways in Jiangsu, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10119, 2025.

Raw forecasts, be they weather or hydrological, suffer from the inevitable errors stemming from either model structures or initial conditions estimation. With forecasting being a critical component in addressing challenges in flood control, reservoir and hydropower operation, and other fields related to the environment, energy and public safety, improving forecasting skill is increasingly necessary. Post-processing methods can help in this regard and can help improve forecast accuracy and reliability. Non-Homogeneous Gaussian Regression (NGR) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) are the two most commonly used methods when it comes to post-processing probabilistic forecasts, and they have shown to be similarly efficient in many studies. For case studies where there are several distinct forecasts for one single observation, NGR risks losing information on uncertainty by aggregating the forecasts even though it accounts for heteroscedasticity. BMA, on the other hand, evaluates distinct model components and utilizes them accordingly, while assuming all the forecasts are alike in their under/overdispersion. This work introduces a mixed NGR-BMA approach for calibrating air temperature forecasts with lead-times of 1-10 days where the forecasts are first processed with NGR and then corrected once more by BMA according to a priori information on the skill of model components. This way, the upsides of each method is maintained through post-processing. The results generally show that the higher the lead-time, the more the proposed method outperforms either BMA or NGR taken individually. 

How to cite: Oghbaei, B. and Arsenault, R.: Using Non-Homogeneous Gaussian Regression to incorporate heteroscedasticity when post-processing air temperature forecasts by Bayesian Model Averaging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10245, 2025.

EGU25-10701 | Orals | AS1.1

Leveraging Data-Driven Weather Forecasting for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction Skill Through Large-Scale Spectral Nudging 

Leo Separovic, Syed Husain, Jean-François Caron, Rabah Aider, Mark Buehner, Stéphane Chamberland, Charles Creese, Ervig Lapalme, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Christopher Subich, Paul Vaillancourt, Jing Yang, and Ayrton Zadra

Operational weather forecasting has traditionally relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but the rise of AI-based weather emulators is reshaping this paradigm. However, most data-driven models for medium-range forecasting still face limitations, such as a narrow range of predicted variables and low effective spatiotemporal resolution. This presentation will compare the strengths and weaknesses of these two approaches, using Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model and Google DeepMind’s GraphCast model. It will demonstrate that GraphCast outperforms GEM in predicting large-scale features, particularly for longer lead times.

Building on these findings, we propose a new hybrid NWP-AI system, in which GEM’s large-scale state variables are spectrally nudged towards GraphCast’s inferences, while GEM continues to generate fine-scale details critical for weather extremes. Results show that this hybrid system improves GEM’s forecast accuracy, reducing RMSE for the 500-hPa geopotential height by 5-10% and extending predictability by 6-12 hours in the extratropics, peaking at day 7 of the forecast. It also yields significant improvements in tropical cyclone trajectory prediction without degrading intensity forecasts. Unlike state-of-the-art AI-based models, the hybrid system ensures meteorologists retain access to all forecast variables, including those critical for high-impact weather. Preparations are currently well underway for the operationalization of this hybrid system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. 

How to cite: Separovic, L., Husain, S., Caron, J.-F., Aider, R., Buehner, M., Chamberland, S., Creese, C., Lapalme, E., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Subich, C., Vaillancourt, P., Yang, J., and Zadra, A.: Leveraging Data-Driven Weather Forecasting for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction Skill Through Large-Scale Spectral Nudging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10701, 2025.

EGU25-11378 | Orals | AS1.1

The Role of Water Vapour in Shaping Mediterranean Summer Climate: Findings from MESSA-DIN 2021 measurement campaing in southern Italy 

Fabio Madonna, Ilaria Gandolfi, Marco Rosoldi, Faezeh Karimian Saracks, Yassmina Hesham Essa, and Giada Salicone

Water vapour fluxes, originating mainly from the Atlantic, North Africa, and the Mediterranean region, play a critical role in shaping the climate dynamics of the Mediterranean Basin, especially during the summer months. These fluxes significantly influence relative humidity levels in the troposphere, affecting both local and regional weather patterns, such as intense rainfall events and prolonged droughts, while also contributing to the amplification of heatwaves through enhanced surface radiation trapping. This study uses observational data collected during the Mediterranean Experiment for Sea Salt and Dust Ice Nuclei (MESSA-DIN) from July to September 2021 in Soverato, southern Italy, to characterise the synoptic conditions of the severe summer of 2021.

A combination of ground-based remote sensing instruments revealed intense and persistent water vapour transport in the mid-troposphere. ERA5 data were used to identify the moisture dynamics over the Mediterranean Basin. The comparison between ERA5 reanalysis data and ground-based measurements further highlighted discrepancies in the representation of water vapour, particularly a dry bias in relative humidity in the range between 500 hPa and 300 hPa. While ERA5 provided a coherent and detailed representation of synoptic patterns and showed general agreement in the time evolution of the atmospheric vertical structure with observations, it exhibited a dry bias in relative humidity (RH) values compared to a ground-based microwave profiler (MWP). However, the magnitude of the bias also depends on the bias affecting the MWP retrieval, typically within 10-15% RH in the mid-troposphere. ERA5 also overestimates the presence of both cold and warm clouds, while ground instruments detected much less frequent cloud cover. This emphasizes the need for improving reanalysis performance in complex coastal and orographic settings. The bias in ERA5 was further assessed using GRUAN data from the Potenza station and regular upper-air data from Mediterranean stations.

The study underscores the importance of ground-based measurements, such as those from microwave radiometers, in improving weather forecasts for extreme events. Despite their lower vertical resolution, these instruments—both on their own and when combined with higher-resolution measurement techniques such as Raman lidars and upper-air soundings—provide continuous, real-time measurements of atmospheric water vapour. These measurements are essential for enhancing our understanding of water vapour fluxes and their impact on cloud formation, as well as for improving the accuracy of high-resolution forecasting models, especially in the representation of extreme weather events in the Mediterranean and Central Europe.

How to cite: Madonna, F., Gandolfi, I., Rosoldi, M., Karimian Saracks, F., Hesham Essa, Y., and Salicone, G.: The Role of Water Vapour in Shaping Mediterranean Summer Climate: Findings from MESSA-DIN 2021 measurement campaing in southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11378, 2025.

EGU25-12077 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1 | Highlight

The AIFS: ECMWF’s data-driven weather forecasting system 

Sara Hahner and the AIFS-Team

Machine learning-based models are rapidly transforming medium-range weather forecasting. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has developed the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a state-of-the-art data-driven model combining a graph neural network encoder-decoder with a sliding window transformer processor. Trained on ECMWF's ERA5 re-analysis and operational numerical weather prediction analyses, AIFS demonstrates exceptional deterministic forecast skill across upper-air variables, surface weather parameters, and tropical cyclone tracks.

Building on this foundation, ECMWF has introduced AIFS-CRPS, a probabilistic extension of AIFS designed for ensemble forecasting. AIFS-CRPS is obtained by training a stochastic model with the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) as its loss function. It addresses uncertainties and generates highly skilful probabilistic forecasts. For medium-range timescales, AIFS-CRPS matches or outperforms ECMWF’s physics-based Integrated Forecasting System ensemble across key variables and lead times.

This presentation will highlight recent advancements in deterministic and probabilistic forecasting with AIFS, showcasing its operational readiness and its potential to redefine medium-range forecasting at ECMWF.

How to cite: Hahner, S. and the AIFS-Team: The AIFS: ECMWF’s data-driven weather forecasting system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12077, 2025.

EGU25-13191 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Using VIL density for identification of storm nuclei, tracking and nowcasting in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area 

Laura Esbri, Tomeu Rigo, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, and María Carmen Llasat

Urban resilience to extreme weather events is increasingly threatened by the intensification of short-duration rainfall, often leading to urban flooding. This study focuses on improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, located on the Catalan Mediterranean coast in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, using high-resolution radar products and rain gauge data. Despite the decrease in average of annual rainfall in the AMB over recent decades, the intensity rates of some storm events are among the highest of the existing series, with occasional convective events causing urban flooding and severe disruptions for the urban region. The latest climate change reports (IPCC 2022) point towards an increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the region.

An extensive dataset of rainfall days spanning from 2014 to 2022 is analysed, including volumetric radar products (VIL, Echo Top), surface rainfall measurements, and incident reports. A bottom-up approach is used to identify 45 intense convective days with significant impacts in the study region. A radar-based nowcasting approach is introduced, utilizing a two-dimensional radar product with three-dimensional atmospheric information to enhance early warnings in the urban region, with high spatial resolution. This approach focuses on the convective parts of storms through Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) density-based tracking and nowcasting with six-minute temporal updates to characterize storm centroids and their evolution. The density of VIL (DVIL), derived from radar composites, provides vertical storm structure information in a two-dimensional format, enabling faster data processing without losing volumetric capabilities.

The findings reveal spatial coherence between maximum DVIL intensities and maximum rainfall locations, with all events exceeding the 2.5 g/m³ DVIL threshold coinciding with high-intensity rainfall. Centroid trajectories show seasonal patterns, with some summer events originating from scattered sources and moving more slowly, while some autumn ones align along the coast and propagating inland. The time lag between initial DVIL detection and peak precipitation for the analysed days ranges from 30 minutes to over two hours, offering critical lead times for early warnings.

This study demonstrates the strengths and limitations of DVIL as a predictor of heavy rainfall in urban areas. The RaNDeVIL module shows promise for operational nowcasting, with necessary improvements to address complex interactions of the storm dynamics and more complex modelling to nowcast longer timescales. These advancements aim to enhance resilience to intense precipitation in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona under changing climatic conditions.

 

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101037193.

How to cite: Esbri, L., Rigo, T., Llasat-Botija, M., and Llasat, M. C.: Using VIL density for identification of storm nuclei, tracking and nowcasting in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13191, 2025.

EGU25-13477 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Impact of climate change on ERA5 cloud cover and convective parameters in Central Europe (1983-2022) 

Virág Soós and Breuer Hajnalka

In discussions about climate change, the focus is usually on rising temperatures. However, it is important to understand the significant impact of climate change on the entire weather system. The cloud feedback mechanism is one of the most complex factors in the climate system. This is because clouds can have a heating and cooling effect at the same time, and this balance has a significant influence on the global radiation balance. To understand how all the different factors work together to create a complex system, we need to look closely at how these factors have changed over time.

The aim of this research is to examine changes in cloud cover and convective parameters, as well as the background, causes and effects of these changes in Central Europe between 1983 and 2022. The research uses data from the ERA5 reanalysis database. Aside from the analysis of environmental conditions, an objective cyclone identifying method is used to determine regions under low- or high-pressure weather system influence.  

The statistical analysis shows that in general, the decrease in ERA5 low-level cloud cover is associated with an increase in cloud base. Medium- and high-level cloud cover, however, is influenced by changes in large-scale circulation systems.

Low-level cloud cover decrease in the northern regions of the study area is likely due to increasing temperatures and decreasing boundary layer humidity. Though temperatures in the Mediterranean region also have risen, the increase in the frequency of negative NAO situations, and an increase in Mediterranean cyclone and low-pressure system activity - the latter of which is likely induced by the higher evaporation of the Mediterranean Sea - resulted in the increase in cloud cover over the central Mediterranean region. We have also observed an increase in the CAPE (convective area pressure energy) in the Mediterranean during the summer months, which leads to an increase in the frequency of heavy thunderstorms and extreme precipitation events in this area, contributing to the intensification of weather extremes in the region. Changes over the study area are not linear but show a region dependent 10-20 years periodical pattern which is also investigated.

How to cite: Soós, V. and Hajnalka, B.: Impact of climate change on ERA5 cloud cover and convective parameters in Central Europe (1983-2022), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13477, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13477, 2025.

Based on hourly precipitation data, the warm-sector rainfall events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are selected and classified using objective methods. There are 33 warm-sector rainfall events in this region from 2010 to 2023. They mainly occur during June and August with the most in July. The average lifetime of these warm-sector rainfall events is 5.44 h. The warm-sector rainfall events are mainly concentrated in the center of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the frequency of occurrence in the east is higher than that in the west. The frequency of occurrence in Beijing is much higher than that in other regions, and it is mainly concentrated in the terrain bell mouth of northeast Beijing. According to the circulation situation that generates warm-sector rainfall, three types of precipitation are obtained: low-vortex type, shear-line type and southerly-wind type. The occurrence months, starting times and locations of warm-sector rainfall events in different types are slightly different. Based on the analysis of the synthetic circulation situation, the dynamic, water vapor and low-level vertical motion conditions of the low-vortex type is most favorable for warm-sector rainfall. The vertical upward movement of shear line warm-sector rainfall events is strong in Beijing; The dynamic condition of southerly-wind type is the weakest, but the water vapor condition is more favorable and the occurrence is related to the topographic distribution of  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.

How to cite: Liu, R.: Selection and Classification of Warm-Sector Rainfall Events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14147, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14147, 2025.

Precipitation nowcasting, which entails high-resolution forecasting of precipitation events within 1–2 hours, is significant to daily life and professional activities. Nevertheless, accurate short-term precipitation forecasting remains a considerable challenge at present. Traditional numerical weather prediction, which relies on intricate physical equations to simulate the Earth's atmospheric state, necessitates substantial computational resources and frequently yields lower accuracy for small-scale forecasts, thereby failing to meet the demands of precipitation prediction in complex regions. Most deep learning methodologies concentrate exclusively on the spatiotemporal prediction of a singular precipitation variable, thereby neglecting the dynamic spatiotemporal relationships between precipitation and other meteorological data within the meteorological system. Moreover, due to the rapid pace of climate change, long-term time series data is often inadequate for accurately addressing precipitation forecasting for extreme weather events, since past meteorological time series data may not accurately reflect the current atmospheric conditions. There is an urgent need to rely on short-term time series for prediction tasks. However, most current methods that rely on short-term time series for prediction perform poorly in forecasting moderate to heavy precipitation events. Inspired by spatiotemporal information transformation schemes, we introduce a spatiotemporal information(STI) transformation equation from chaotic dynamics into the field of computer vision and develop a neural network model framework based on spatiotemporal information transformation. This framework maps high-dimensional spatial information to the temporal information of future precipitation information, thereby facilitating the integration of dynamic spatiotemporal relationships between various meteorological data and precipitation, and enabling the mutual transformation of spatiotemporal information for enhanced forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, we propose an adaptive gradient loss function designed to improve the model's sensitivity to learning moderate-intensity precipitation. This research utilizes the US SEVIR dataset for training and testing, which encompasses data such as satellite visible light, infrared temperature, humidity, and cloud precipitation while employing multiple meteorological data for precipitation forecasting over the subsequent hour. We selected the Structural Similarity Index, Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio, False Alarm Rate, Critical Success Index, and Heidke Skill Score as both quantitative and qualitative evaluation metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that the STI framework reduces the model's error in moderate to heavy precipitation events, making the model more sensitive to severe rainfall events. Furthermore, when the STI framework is integrated into other deep learning models and retrained, it further enhances their precipitation prediction accuracy. This finding indicates that the STI framework effectively captures the dynamic spatiotemporal relationships between various meteorological and precipitation data.

How to cite: Hu, J., Liu, D., Huang, X., and Wu, X.:  Spatiotemporal Information Transformation for Precipitation Nowcasting Using Multi-Meteorological Factors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14517, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14517, 2025.

Moist convection in the Maritime Continent (MC) is typically driven by synoptic disturbances: Northerly Cold Surge (NCS), Borneo Vortex, and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). One or more of these tropical disturbances can control the convective behaviour in the MC, resulting in changes in the diurnally forced convection, cloud populations and diurnal precipitation. This investigation analyses a record extreme rainfall event on Java Island around New Year's Eve 2020, the highest amount of rainfall recorded in the capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta. We use reanalysis data from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) to identify and analyse the southward propagation of the NCS. Satellite measurements from the Himawari-8 Advanced Himawari Imager and satellite-derived cloud physical properties reveal the cloud signatures of the NCS. High-resolution Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations were performed to understand the mesoscale dynamic process of the NCS's interaction with the enhanced precipitation at the diurnal scale.

Our results suggest that this extreme event resulted from the interaction of an NCS event and the diurnally forced convection. A persistent northwesterly wind near the surface over the Java Sea induced an intense low-level wind convergence from the meridional moisture transport associated with the NCS and the equatorial trough over Java. This promoted the necessary unstable conditions for organised convection during the afternoon-evening. The cloud populations and diurnal cycle of heavy rainfall in western Java were affected by the frontal region of the NCS with the offshore propagating land breeze from Java and Sumatra, as well as the intense convergence of moisture air in the internal seas of the MC. Our analysis also suggests that the presence of this strong cross-equatorial flow in the MC induced moisture transport from the southern part of Sumatra to the western region of Java. The findings outlined here could be utilised to enhance our understanding of severe weather in the MC.

How to cite: Lopez-Bravo, C.: A high-resolution modelling and observational analysis of an extreme rainfall event driven by the Northerly Cold Surge and intraseasonal tropical variability in Jakarta: January 2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14567, 2025.

EGU25-15060 | Orals | AS1.1

Fair Box ordinate transform for multivariate Gaussian forecasts 

Sándor Baran and Martin Leutbecher

In evaluating multivariate probabilistic forecasts predicting vector quantities such as a weather variable at multiple locations or a wind vector, an important step is the assessment of their calibration and reliability. Here, we focus on the Gaussian Box ordinate transform (BOT), which is appropriate if the forecasts and observations are multivariate normal. The BOT is based on the Mahalanobis distance of the observation vector and the estimated Gaussian mean and asymptotically standard uniform if the forecasts and the observation are drawn from the same multivariate Gaussian law. However, for small ensemble sizes combined with high dimensionality, deviation from uniformity is substantial even for reliable forecasts, resulting in hump-shaped or triangular BOT histograms. To circumvent this problem, we derive an ensemble size and dimension-dependent fair version of the Gaussian BOT, where the uniformity holds for any combination of these parameters. With the help of a simulation study, first, we assess the behaviour of the fair BOT for various dimensions, ensemble sizes, and types of calibration misspecification. Then, using ensemble forecasts of vectors consisting of multiple combinations of upper-air weather variables, we demonstrate the usefulness of the fair BOT when multivariate normality is only an approximation.

*Research was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office under Grant No. K142849.

How to cite: Baran, S. and Leutbecher, M.: Fair Box ordinate transform for multivariate Gaussian forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15060, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15060, 2025.

EGU25-15639 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Ensemble Convective Rainfall Nowcasting by integrating Numerical Weather Prediction models and Neural Networks: the ICREN project 

Giovanna Venuti, Xiangyang Song, Stefano Federico, Giorgio Guariso, Matteo Sangiorgio, Claudia Pasquero, Seyed Hossein Hassantabar Bozroudi, Ali Badr Eldin Ali Mohamed, Ruken Dilara Zaf, Lorenzo Luini, Roberto Nebuloni, and Eugenio Realini

Convective events pose a significant threat to society due to the associated heavy rainfall, large hail, strong winds, and lightning. Location and timing determination of convective precipitation is still a challenge for modern meteorology. Despite the good skills of current weather forecasting tools in the prediction of the large-scale environment facilitating the onset of convective phenomena, the multitude of spatial scales involved in such events makes their characterization, observation, and forecast a difficult task. The problem is further complicated by their rapid temporal development, which lasts from minutes to a few hours depending on the specific case.

Recent research indicates that the predictability of these events can be strongly improved accounting for local meteorological observations. 

The goal of the ICREN (Intense Convective Rainfall Events Nowcasting) project is to enhance the nowcasting of convective events by:

  • exploiting the information made available by local standard and non-conventional observations of meteorological variables
  • integrating physically based Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with data-driven black box Neural Networks (NNs). 

The NWP model is used to support the NN by means of pseudo-observations (forecasted variables); while the fast computational speed of the NN enables advancing predictions in time and generating ensemble forecasts of convective phenomena.

The project is carried out in the Seveso River basin (almost 300 km2) in Northern Italy. In this region, convective events trigger floods and flash floods heavily impacting the large urban area of Milan.

Within the project, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model is employed. By using three nested grids, the model achieves a 2 kkm x 2 km spatial resolution over the test area. To optimize the prediction of meteorological variables required by the NN, the model assimilates lightning observations and GNSS-derived Zenith Tropospheric Delays (ZTDs), both of which enhance the representation of local atmospheric humidity.

Several NN models have been trained on standard meteorological data, GNSS ZTDs, and radar-derived parameters—including the position, velocity, and attenuation of convective cells—to identify the architecture best suited for predicting 10-minute accumulated rainfall from 10 minutes up to 1 hour following the detection of a convective event in the test area.

The best-performing models are used to generate ensemble predictions of rainfall events by suitably perturbing the input variables.

Results from the WRF model, the NN predictions and the ensemble forecasts will be presented along with initial integration outcomes for selected convective events occurring in the test area in 2019.

 

This work is supported by the ICREN-PRIN project (MUR- CUP: D53D23004770006). 



How to cite: Venuti, G., Song, X., Federico, S., Guariso, G., Sangiorgio, M., Pasquero, C., Hassantabar Bozroudi, S. H., Mohamed, A. B. E. A., Zaf, R. D., Luini, L., Nebuloni, R., and Realini, E.: Ensemble Convective Rainfall Nowcasting by integrating Numerical Weather Prediction models and Neural Networks: the ICREN project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15639, 2025.

Mesoscale vortices in the boundary layer are characterized by short lifespans, small spatial scales, and difficulty in prediction, leading to their frequent oversight in operational forecasting. This oversight often results in lower accuracy for precipitation forecasting associated with these vortices. From April 2 to April 3 2023, a squall line event triggered by vortices extending from the lower troposphere to the boundary layer occurred across eastern Hubei to western Anhui. This event developed ahead of a shallow mid-tropospheric trough, while the lower levels were influenced by southwest flow. High-resolution numerical simulations successfully reproduced the evolution of the vortex and the organizational development of the squall line. Dynamic diagnosis revealed that the nocturnal boundary layer vortex (925 hPa) was initiated by the intensification of the nocturnal jet and the blocking effect of terrain. Subsequently, through vertical advection of horizontal vorticity from boundary layer to lower level, the vortex at the lower troposphere (850 hPa) developed and intensified. Later, under the combined influence of horizontal divergence and horizontal advection, the vortex rapidly strengthened, creating favorable convergence conditions for the squall line's development due to the northerly flow west of the vortex and the southwest flow south of it.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Xi, X., and Sun, J.: The formation and evolution mechanism of the boundary layer vortex east of thesecond-step terrain along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15786, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15786, 2025.

EGU25-15861 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Improving seasonal forecasts for early warning systems in Germany 

Yanet Díaz Esteban, Qing Lin, Fatemeh Heidari, Edgar Fabián Espitia Sarmiento, and Elena Xoplaki

Climate forecasts at seasonal timescales are critical for various sectors, and play a key role in decision-making processes, helping to mitigate risks associated with climate variability and extreme events. However, model outputs are typically insufficient for many practical applications due to coarse resolution and systematic biases, requiring the employment of post-processing techniques to enhance their usability and target stakeholders’ interest such as early warning systems. Post-processing techniques such as downscaling and bias correction can translate model outputs into higher-resolution, bias-corrected forecasts that are more relevant and best appropriate for local applications. We present a physics-informed CNN-based framework for downscaling and bias correction of ECMWF SEAS5.1 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe from 1° to ~1.2km, which represents a downscaling factor of ~60. The approach considers several climate drivers of atmospheric surface variables from SEAS5.1 as input and takes European Meteorological Observations at 1.2 km as ground truth data. We use an analog-based approach to account for the mismatch between long-range model outputs and observations due to model drifting, which is a problem for supervised neural networks algorithms running on climate datasets. Finally, we present a detailed evaluation of the performance for the period 2017-2022, by comparing our results to the raw output. In most cases, the post-processed forecasts outperform the raw predictions in terms of bias reduction, spatial representation and capturing the extremes. This work has potential implications for reducing uncertainties, improving spatial representation, and addressing systematic biases present in raw ECMWF seasonal products.

How to cite: Díaz Esteban, Y., Lin, Q., Heidari, F., Espitia Sarmiento, E. F., and Xoplaki, E.: Improving seasonal forecasts for early warning systems in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15861, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15861, 2025.

EGU25-16130 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Enhancing Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasting Model with AI-Predicted Precipitation Intensity Change Rates 

Kwang-Ho Kim, Kyeongyeon Ko, and Kyung-Yeub Nam

The importance of precipitation nowcasting is gradually expanding due to the increasing frequency and intensity of localized rainfall caused by climate change. The growth and decay processes of precipitation are critical factors influencing the accuracy of precipitation nowcasting, necessitating advanced modeling approaches. This study proposes a novel methodology that integrates artificial intelligence (AI) with high-resolution radar data to predict the growth and decay processes of precipitation, incorporating these predictions into a radar-based nowcasting model. In this study, AI was applied to predict radar-based precipitation intensity change rates up to two hours ahead, and these predictions were integrated into a precipitation nowcasting model. The AI effectively learned the spatiotemporal patterns of nonlinear precipitation evolution using the RainNet architecture. The AI was trained on three years (2021 – 2023) of radar-derived precipitation intensity change rates, with one year (2020) used for validation to evaluate its performance. The nowcasting model was developed using cross-correlation techniques to calculate motion vectors of the precipitation system at different spatial scales, and a semi-Lagrangian backward extrapolation method was employed for precipitation prediction. Integrating AI-predicted precipitation intensity change rates into the nowcasting model resulted in significant improvements in prediction performance. The results showed a 10% improvement in precipitation prediction accuracy compared to the baseline nowcasting model that did not incorporate AI-based precipitation intensity change rate predictions. The model effectively captured rapid changes in precipitation intensity, demonstrating the utility of AI-based predictions for short-term nowcasting. This study highlights the potential of combining traditional nowcasting models with AI techniques, presenting a promising approach for enhancing precipitation prediction accuracy.

This research was supported by the "Development of radar based severe weather nowcasting technology (KMA2021-03122)" of "Development of integrated application technology for Korea weather radar" project funded by the Weather Radar Center, Korea Meteorological Administration.

How to cite: Kim, K.-H., Ko, K., and Nam, K.-Y.: Enhancing Radar-Based Precipitation Nowcasting Model with AI-Predicted Precipitation Intensity Change Rates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16130, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16130, 2025.

EGU25-16651 | Orals | AS1.1

RUSH: A Novel Fully AI-driven Framework for Seamless Integration of Observations and Global AI Forecasts in Short-term Weather Prediction 

Gabriele Franch, Elena Tomasi, Simon de Kock, Matteo Angelinelli, and Marco Cristoforetti

Short-term weather forecasting, especially for extreme events, remains challenging due to the need to effectively combine recent observations with numerical weather predictions. To tackle this challenge, we present RUSH (Rapid Update Short-term High-resolution forecast), an innovative framework designed to provide high-resolution (1 km) precipitation forecasts on a national scale with lead times up to 24 hours. RUSH follows the recent attempts to create fully AI-driven kilometer-scale forecasting systems that completely replace traditional numerical modeling with a combination of machine learning and observational data. Our system employs a Latent Diffusion Model architecture to seamlessly blend information from multiple data sources, including radar composites, satellite observations (SEVIRI bands), and ECMWF's AI-based global forecasting system (AIFS). 

The model is conceptually designed to transition from observation-driven predictions in the first few hours to a sophisticated spatial and temporal downscaling of AIFS forecasts at longer lead times. This approach aims to leverage the strengths of both data sources: the high spatial and temporal resolution of observational data for immediate forecasts, and the physically consistent evolution provided by AIFS for longer horizons. By utilizing an end-to-end AI architecture from global to local scale, RUSH not only addresses the computational constraints typically associated with traditional numerical weather predictions but also explores the potential for a new generation of fully data-driven weather forecasting systems. 

Our framework processes multi-source input data at different spatial and temporal scales, including radar-derived 30-minute precipitation accumulations, key SEVIRI channels, and selected AIFS forecast fields at 25km resolution. The model's sequence-to-sequence architecture allows for flexible spatial domain handling and probabilistic precipitation forecasting through multiple realizations. 

We will present preliminary results from two experimental implementations over different European domains (Italy and Belgium), demonstrating the model's capability to generate rapid-update forecasts and discussing its potential for operational implementation in weather services. The evaluation will focus on precipitation prediction skills across different intensity thresholds and temporal scales, with particular attention to extreme event forecasting. A preliminary comparison with operational limited area models (COSMO-2I and ALARO-AROME) over selected case studies will assess the competitiveness of this fully AI-driven approach against high-resolution numerical weather prediction systems. 

How to cite: Franch, G., Tomasi, E., de Kock, S., Angelinelli, M., and Cristoforetti, M.: RUSH: A Novel Fully AI-driven Framework for Seamless Integration of Observations and Global AI Forecasts in Short-term Weather Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16651, 2025.

EGU25-16934 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Clustering-based spatial interpolation of parametric post-processing models 

Mária Nagy-Lakatos and Sándor Baran

Parametric approaches to post-processing methods are widely used today, as they provide full predictive distributions for the weather variable of interest. These methods rely on training data consisting of historical forecast-observation pairs to estimate their parameters. Consequently, post- processed forecasts are generally restricted to locations with accessible training data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a general clustering-based interpolation technique that extends calibrated predictive distributions from observation stations to any location within the ensemble domain where ensemble forecasts are available. Using the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) post-processing technique, we conduct a case study based on 10-m wind speed ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.  The results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating its advantages over both regionally estimated and interpolated EMOS models as well as raw ensemble forecasts.

Reference:  Baran, S. and Lakatos, M. (2024) Clustering-based spatial interpolation of parametric post-processing models. Wea. Forecasting  9, 1591-1604.

Research was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office under Grant No. K142849.

How to cite: Nagy-Lakatos, M. and Baran, S.: Clustering-based spatial interpolation of parametric post-processing models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16934, 2025.

EGU25-17194 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Exploring spatiotemporal vector autoregressive models for radar nowcasting 

Viv Atureta, Stefan Siegert, and Peter Challenor

Radar nowcasting methodologies have evolved from traditional optical flow and extrapolation techniques to advanced deep learning algorithms. However, accurately modeling growth and decay processes remains a significant challenge. This study explores spatio-temporal statistical models inspired by physics-based stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Specifically, the solution to the advection-diffusion PDE is framed as a vector autoregressive process with coloured noise, characterized by non-uniform spectral properties.

We investigate the stochastic component using Gaussian Processes (GPs) and Gauss Markov Random Fields (GMRFs), evaluating covariance structures such as exponential, squared exponential, and dynamically weighted covariance and precision matrices. Nowcasts employing state-dependent GPs and GMRFs are assessed over lead times ranging from 15 minutes to 2 hours. The approach is tested on simulated data and UK precipitation events from the Met Office Nimrod system, focusing on a 200 km × 200 km region. Training data spans January 2014 to December 2020, with observational dimensions on the order of 10^4. To enable computationally efficient Bayesian inference, we utilize sparse matrix methods and Laplace approximations.

How to cite: Atureta, V., Siegert, S., and Challenor, P.: Exploring spatiotemporal vector autoregressive models for radar nowcasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17194, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17194, 2025.

EGU25-17279 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Nowcasting precipitation events from mesoscale convective systems for Dakar, Senegal  

Mai-Britt Berghöfer, Diana L. Monroy, and Jan O. Härter

Senegal, located in the West Sahel region, frequently experiences flooding driven by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which contribute 90% of the region’s rainfall. Current early warning systems for hydrological extremes struggle with timely and accurate predictions, necessitating advancements in precipitation nowcasting. Nowcasting describes short-term weather forecasts with a lead time of typically less than two hours. In this region traditional numerical weather models have limited accuracy in predicting short-term events, and nowcasting models therefore outperform numerical weather prediction in this time frame. Precipitation nowcasts can be helpful in supporting and informing decision makers on time to adapt to the risk and protect society from hydrological extremes.

A major challenge in developing warning systems for this region is the lack of radar data coverage, which is typically used in nowcasting models, compounded by a sparse ground-based observational network. Increasing the data availability and understanding the properties of MCSs could enhance the predictability of regional weather conditions, which is a primary objective of the High-resolution weather observations East of Dakar (DakE)-project. During the project, 14 automated weather stations have already been installed east of Dakar.

The objective of this study, which is part of the DakE-project, is to integrate the in-situ station data with satellite data to develop a precipitation nowcasting model that is optimally adapted to local conditions considering different spatial and temporal scales. An optical flow routine, based on statistical extrapolation of the current state of the atmosphere, is used for this purpose. To incorporate a stochastic term, which represents the unpredictable component, the STEPS (short-term ensemble prediction system) approach is applied. The skill of the forecast depends, among other things, on the geographical location, the spatial and temporal scales and the meteorological conditions, since developments that do not fulfil the steady-state assumption, such as the initiation, growth and termination of convective systems, are not resolved. The next step is to investigate whether these shortcomings can be compensated by implementing machine learning approaches.

 

References:

 

Anderson, Seonaid R., et al. "Nowcasting convective activity for the Sahel: A simple probabilistic approach using real‐time and historical satellite data on cloud‐top temperature." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society150.759 (2024): 597-617.

Mathon, V., Laurent, H., & Lebel, T. (2002). Mesoscale convective system rainfall in the Sahel. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology41(11), 1081-1092.

Pulkkinen, S., Nerini, D., Pérez Hortal, A. A., Velasco-Forero, C., Seed, A., Germann, U., & Foresti, L. (2019). Pysteps: An open-source Python library for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting (v1. 0). Geoscientific Model Development12(10), 4185-4219.

Taylor, Christopher M., et al. "Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state." Environmental Research Letters 17.3 (2022): 034016.

 

 

Keywords: Nowcasting, Senegal, Mesoscale Convective System, Precipitation

How to cite: Berghöfer, M.-B., Monroy, D. L., and Härter, J. O.: Nowcasting precipitation events from mesoscale convective systems for Dakar, Senegal , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17279, 2025.

EGU25-17282 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Hybrid Post-Processing for Solar Power: Bridging Nowcasting to Short-Range   

Petrina Papazek, Pascal Gfäller, and Irene Schicker

Accurate forecasting of solar power generation is crucial for grid operators, as location-dependent photovoltaic (PV) installations exhibit diverse production patterns. The need for high temporal and spatial resolution, combined with the inherent variability of PV outputs, presents significant challenges for forecasting and post-processing across different time horizons. This study addresses these challenges in post-processing optimal point forecasts for PV sites across multiple forecasting ranges, with the aim of providing seamless output for end-users in the energy sector. Specifically, we focus on two-day-ahead PV site forecasts, with an emphasis on a highly resolved nowcasting range (from minutes to hours ahead) and a smooth transition to short-range forecasts. Advanced machine learning techniques, gridded meteorological models, and a variety of location-specific data sources are employed to enhance our post-processing approach for optimal site forecasts.

Focusing on an Austrian case study, we develop a post-processing framework based on machine learning approaches for time-series forecasting, with particular emphasis on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models compared to more classical methods such as Random Forest (RF) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Our primary objective is to smoothly post-process and identify transitions among a set of range-specific, mostly gridded background models spanning various spatial and temporal resolutions. The post-processed models used as input primarily represent irradiance and related parameters. Our work integrates IrradPhyD-Net, a high-resolution AI-based nowcasting model, with AROME, a limited-area Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model for the alpine region, providing valuable physical information extending into the short- and medium-range. To exploit the location-specific characteristics of the site, we incorporate additional time-series models that capture the climatology and trends of PV, irradiance, and strongly correlated parameters identified during pre-processing. Given the substantial and growing input data needs of AI and machine learning, we build on our previous contributions by integrating semi-synthetic data to address challenges posed by limited or inconsistent historical PV data, thereby improving model stability. In this context, additional data sources, such as satellite-based CAMS radiation time-series and ERA-5 reanalysis, are essential.

By leveraging skillful input models, supported by synthetic data, our post-processing framework demonstrates strong forecast skill across the studied ranges. Thus, sourcing and transforming data from multiple inputs proves to be an effective way to achieve seamless, high-skill forecasts while maintaining high temporal resolution for nowcasting.

How to cite: Papazek, P., Gfäller, P., and Schicker, I.: Hybrid Post-Processing for Solar Power: Bridging Nowcasting to Short-Range  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17282, 2025.

Gridscale forecasts of surface weather delivered by operational global NWP suffer from biases which depend strongly on the weather situation and on geographical factors. Such biases also plague re-analyses, such as ECMWF’s ERA5, as operational models are the engines of those re-analyses. This presentation will itemise a number of different gridscale biases identified through a conditional verification exercise in which millions of station measurements were compared with short range Control run forecasts of the ECMWF operational ensemble. We will postulate what physical reasons might underpin these biases. There is for example a strong dependence of rainfall forecast bias on model near surface relative humidity, which seems to relate to the handling of droplet evaporation and other cloud physics processes. All such errors can in principle be addressed via ECMWF’s “ecPoint” post-processing approach; indeed the conditional verification activity here was managed via ecPoint calibration software. The resulting corrections will be illustrated.

Whilst data-driven AI models are currently delivering better predictions of the synoptic pattern than classical physics-based global NWP, the fact remains that those AI models are generally using unadjusted re-analyses for training, and so the situation-dependant biases will clearly put a cap on skill attainable by them for surface weather parameters, even when the forecast synoptic pattern is ‘perfect’. Some ECMWF views on how to overcome this barrier, to deliver even better predictions, will be very briefly presented.

How to cite: Hewson, T.: Using Conditional Verification to describe Situation-dependant Model Biases for Surface Weather – Applications and Implications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18177, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18177, 2025.

This research aims to examine the evolution of the large-scale localized buoyancy anomalies in mid-latitude regions, investigating the adjustments in the atmosphere for moist-convective environments. For the global dynamical simulation, the two-layer moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water (mcTRSW) model Aeolus2.0 with intermediate complexity was employed. The concept of two interacting layers enabled the study of the dynamics of localized extreme heatwaves in baroclinic and barotropic situations. The model initialization comprises daily averaged velocity and potential temperature variables from ERA5 data. The results reveal the presence of a circular positive buoyancy anomaly in the lower layer, while the upper layer shows opposite circular rotation wind movement for some of the cases analyzed. The condensed liquid water content anomaly evolution shows that baroclinic localized buoyancy perturbation should play an important role for increased cloud formation and condensation, as a result of the heatwave propagation in the atmosphere for those extreme forcings. Comparing the strong and weak buoyancy anomalies results, we can notice the prolonged effects of baroclinic initial condition over the barotropic case.

How to cite: Oliveira Guimarães, S., Rostami, M., and Petri, S.: An Intermediate Complexity Approach to the Dynamics of Localized Extreme Heatwaves in the Mid-Latitude Atmosphere for moist-convective environments using Aeolus2.0, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18630, 2025.

EGU25-19296 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Assessing the Performance of Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models in Simulating the 2002 Extreme Rainfall Event Over Central Europe 

Shruti Verma, Natalia Machado Crespo, Michal Belda, Tomas Halenka, Peter Huszar, and Eva Holtanova

Extreme rainfall events represent a substantial risk to regions across the globe, including the Central Europe. The 2002 Central European flood was a devastating natural disaster affecting countries like Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Intense rainfall, saturated soils, and overflowing rivers caused severe flooding, displacing many and leading to significant loss of life. With damages exceeding €20 billion, it remains one of Europe’s most costly flood events, heavily impacting historic cities such as Prague and Dresden (Chorynski et al., 2012).

The spatial and temporal resolution of climate models can present challenges when simulating extreme rainfall events at regional or local scales in term of both the intensity and spatial distribution of precipitation. Therefore, In this study the implementation of high-resolution RCMs with "explicit" convection has been applied which directly resolves deep convection on the model grid without relying on parameterization schemes, known as convection-permitting (CP) models (Prein et al., 2013a,b). This study evaluates the performance of RegCM5 in simulating two consecutive extreme rainfall events (6–7 and 11–13 August 2002) over Central Europe and the Czech Republic, comparing 12 km and 3 km i.e. CP-RCM simulations along with sensitivity of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme Holtslag and UW. The results reveal significant discrepancies in the 12km RCM simulations, particularly in Czech Republic, where they struggle to capture the rainfall patterns of both events. The model configurations with UW PBL closely follow the observed extreme rainfall patterns, demonstrating improved alignment with the events. While CP simulations improve the representation of small-scale processes, accurately capturing localized extreme events, particularly the first spell, remains challenging. These findings highlight the potential of CP-RCM simulations for extreme precipitation in terms of climate adaptation, infrastructure development, and policy planning to mitigate the potential risks

How to cite: Verma, S., Crespo, N. M., Belda, M., Halenka, T., Huszar, P., and Holtanova, E.: Assessing the Performance of Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models in Simulating the 2002 Extreme Rainfall Event Over Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19296, 2025.

EGU25-19431 | ECS | Orals | AS1.1

Anemoi: A New Collaborative Framework for Data-driven Weather Forecasting 

Ana Prieto Nemesio, Daniele Nerini, Jasper Wijnands, Thomas Nipen, and Matthew Chantry

Anemoi is an open-source framework co-developed by ECMWF and several European national meteorological services to build, train, and run data-driven weather forecasts. Its primary goal is to empower meteorological organisations to train machine learning (ML) models using their data, simplifying the process with shared tools and workflows.
Designed for modularity and flexibility, Anemoi offers key components for efficient data-driven forecasting. The framework is organised into distinct Python packages covering the entire machine learning lifecycle—from the creation of customised datasets from diverse meteorological sources to the development and training of advanced deep learning graph models. Once a model is trained, Anemoi enables users to run it for inference, using the outputs of physics-based NWP analyses or ensembles as initial conditions, while maintaining comprehensive lineage tracking.
Anemoi has already been applied in experimental operational forecasting, including ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS). It has supported models utilising stretched grid and limited-area configurations. These applications demonstrate Anemoi’s potential to enhance forecasting accuracy by integrating ML techniques into existing systems.
More than just a technical framework, Anemoi represents a collaborative effort among meteorological services, researchers, and technologists, fostering knowledge exchange and innovation.

How to cite: Prieto Nemesio, A., Nerini, D., Wijnands, J., Nipen, T., and Chantry, M.: Anemoi: A New Collaborative Framework for Data-driven Weather Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19431, 2025.

EGU25-19706 | Posters on site | AS1.1

Advances in Project IMA, the Seamless Prediction Programme of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium 

Lesley De Cruz, Simon De Kock, Michiel Van Ginderachter, Maarten Reyniers, Alex Deckmyn, Idir Dehmous, Wout Dewettinck, Felix Erdmann, Ruben Imhoff, Arthur Moraux, Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel, Mats Veldhuizen, Joseph James Casey, Loic Faleu Kemajou, Anshul Kumar, and Viktor Van Nieuwenhuize

Seamless prediction systems provide frequently updated forecasts across different timescales by combining observations, such as weather radar data, with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These systems are increasingly needed by users like hydrological services, local authorities, renewable energy operators, and smartphone apps to make better and earlier decisions. This is especially true for precipitation, which is highly variable in space and time and strongly influences downstream models like (urban) hydrology. To achieve this, forecasts must not only be fast and accurate but also come with calibrated ensembles to estimate uncertainty and propagate errors properly.
In Belgium, Project IMA (inspired by the Japanese word for "now" or "soon") is the seamless prediction system developed by the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI). It uses RMI’s observation network, including RADQPE for gauge-corrected precipitation estimates, the pysteps-be probabilistic rainfall nowcasting system, the INCA-BE nowcasting system, and the ACCORD NWP models ALARO and AROME. Unlike many other systems, Project IMA offers seamless ensemble precipitation nowcasts for lead times up to 6 hours, updated every 5 minutes, designed to improve flash flood predictions and quantify their uncertainty.
This presentation will showcase recent developments in Project IMA, including updates to the open-source pysteps framework, such as an improved runtime efficiency, code structure and better representation of extremes. We will discuss new deep learning-based methods for blending forecasts to extend their lead time and improve accuracy, calibration, and usefulness for end users such as hydrologists, crisis managers and water authorities.
Project IMA aims to ensure a rapid transfer from research to operations and encourages open-source contributions to ensure transparency and reproducibility. It supports the United Nations’ “Early Warnings for All” initiative, which strives to make forecasts more accessible and actionable by 2027.

How to cite: De Cruz, L., De Kock, S., Van Ginderachter, M., Reyniers, M., Deckmyn, A., Dehmous, I., Dewettinck, W., Erdmann, F., Imhoff, R., Moraux, A., Reinoso-Rondinel, R., Veldhuizen, M., Casey, J. J., Faleu Kemajou, L., Kumar, A., and Van Nieuwenhuize, V.: Advances in Project IMA, the Seamless Prediction Programme of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19706, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19706, 2025.

Accurate weather forecasting is vital for societal decision-making in sectors such as renewable energy, agriculture, and disaster management. Statistical post-processing techniques play a critical role in calibrating forecasts and addressing issues of model bias and ensemble dispersion. However, many post-processing methods rely on complete and high-quality datasets, and the presence of missing data can significantly undermine their effectiveness. This study presents a comparative analysis of imputation methods aimed at bridging data gaps to enhance the performance of statistical post-processing techniques.
The evaluation process focuses on a selection of widely used imputation approaches, including ensemble member mean substitution, persistence, Fourier fit, and Neural Networks. These methods are assessed using the forecasts and observations from the EUPPBench dataset by introducing randomly selected missing data, focusing on metrics such as imputation accuracy and their impact on post-processing performance. To quantify the benefit of missing data imputation the study compares different post-processing techniques, ranging from the simpler EMOS to the more advanced Neural Networks, where the latter is known to be more affected by incomplete data. 

How to cite: Lakatos-Szabó, M.: A comparative study of imputation methods for improving statistical post-processing of weather forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19873, 2025.

The Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA) plays a critical role in trapping, transporting, and redistributing water vapour in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, particularly into the extratropical lower stratosphere. Comparison of ERA5 reanalysis data with remote sensing data and simulations with the model ICON-CLM in convection-parameterized (12 km grid spacing) and convection-permitting (3.3 km) setups indicate that the transport into the ASMA is overestimated in ERA5 over the Tibetan plateau (Singh & Ahrens 2023). This presentation critically discusses the water vapour transport into the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere by deep convective events over the Tibetan plateau and the Himalayas – an area identified as hotspot for troposphere-stratosphere exchange (Škerlak et al. 2014) using convection-parameterized reanalysis data. Our investigations use a decade-long ICON-CLM climate-like simulation (Collier et al. 2024) performed as a contribution to the CORDEX flagship pilot study Convection-Permitting Third Pole (CPTP).

References

Collier, E., N. Ban, N. Richter, B. Ahrens, D. Chen, X. Chen, H-W. Lai, R. Leung, L. Li, T. Ou, P.K. Pothapakula, E. Potter, A. F. Prein, K. Sakaguchi, M. Schroeder, P. Singh, S. Sobolowski, S. Sugimoto, J. Tang, H. Yu, C. Ziska: The First Ensemble of Kilometre-Scale Simulations of a Hydrological Year over the Third Pole. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07291-2, 2024

Singh, P., B. Ahrens: Modeling Lightning Activity in the Third Pole Region: Performance of a km-Scale ICON-CLM Simulation. Atmosphere, 14(11), 1655, DOI: 10.3390/atmos14111655, 2023

Škerlak, B., M. Sprenger, and H. Wernli: A global climatology of stratosphere–troposphere exchange using the ERA-Interim data set from 1979 to 2011. English. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14 (2), 913–937. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-913-2014, 2014

How to cite: Ahrens, B. and Singh, P.: Moist convection and tracer transport in and out of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20360, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20360, 2025.

EGU25-21081 | ECS | Posters on site | AS1.1

Spatial and Temporal Verification of High-Resolution Modelled Rainfall Data for Urban Flood Risk Assessment 

Markus Pichler and Dirk Muschalla

Reliable climate forecasts are crucial for adapting to future challenges, particularly in urban flood management, where pluvial flooding poses a significant threat. This study focuses on the verification and enhancement of rainfall data for urban flood modelling by analysing critical aspects such as total depth, intensities, seasonality, dry weather periods, and spatial distribution during extreme storm events.

In Graz, Austria, a network of 23 high-resolution precipitation measurement stations covering 120 km², including 13 stations with over a decade of data, was utilized to calibrate a regional climate model through a downscaling approach. This provided minute-level rainfall data for each station, enabling a detailed comparison of historical measurements from the past 10 years with climate model outputs for the current state of the climate. Subsequently, changes in key rainfall characteristics were assessed for the near future (2040–2050) and far future (2090–2100).

Our analysis evaluated yearly precipitation totals, spatial rainfall distribution, intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) functions, and the seasonality of extreme rainfall events. The results revealed promising alignment with historical data, though discrepancies were noted for shorter durations and seasonal shifts. Specifically, heavy rainfall events were projected to occur more frequently in autumn in the future, a trend absent in historical observations.

This study underscores the importance of statistically robust downscaling and verification techniques in blending observational and model-based forecasts to enhance the reliability of climate predictions. These advancements provide critical insights for urban flood resilience planning and illustrate the evolving nature of extreme rainfall under changing climatic conditions.

How to cite: Pichler, M. and Muschalla, D.: Spatial and Temporal Verification of High-Resolution Modelled Rainfall Data for Urban Flood Risk Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21081, 2025.

EGU25-1437 | Posters on site | AS2.3

Estimating Ground Heat Flux from Net Radiation 

Cheng-I Hsieh and Supattra Visessri

Ground heat flux may play an important role in surface energy balance. In this study we evaluate the performance of the objective hysteresis model (OHM) for estimating ground heat flux from net radiation and compare it with the linear regression model. The experimental sites include residential roofs (concrete), campus grassland, agricultural grassland, and peat bog. Our field measurements show that the mean partition coefficient from net radiation to ground heat flux varied from 0.47 (concrete roof) to 0.079 (agricultural grassland). The mean hysteresis (lag) factors for residential roof, campus grassland, and peat bog were 0.55, 0.26, and 0.11 h, respectively; and the hysteresis factor at the agricultural site was only 0.032 h. However, the partition and hysteresis coefficients in the OHM were found to vary with time for the same surface. Our measurements and analysis show that when the hysteresis factor is larger than 0.11 h, ground heat flux estimates from net radiation can be improved (17–37% reduction in the root mean square error) by using OHM instead of a simple linear regression model.

How to cite: Hsieh, C.-I. and Visessri, S.: Estimating Ground Heat Flux from Net Radiation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1437, 2025.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) greatly affects climate and environment systems over Asian through the lower atmospheric mass/energy transfer processes. However, the lower atmospheric processes were not clearly understood due to the limitation of observational data, especially over the TP mountain regions. Observations and model simulations suggested a distinguished land-air transfer and vertical structure over the TP mountain regions, which largely differ from those over plateau flat regions. An inhomogeneous distributions are also found in the land-air exchange processes over the whole TP regions, and a new high-resolution dataset are consequently constructed and developed, under the consideration of different TP climate classification.

How to cite: Zhou, L.: Observational Studies on the Land-air Exchange Processes over the Tibetan Mountain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1539, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1539, 2025.

EGU25-1695 | Orals | AS2.3

Continuous measurements of O2:CO2 flux exchange ratios above a cropland in central Germany 

Christian Markwitz, Edgar Tunsch, Andrew Manning, Penelope Pickers, and Alexander Knohl

The O2:CO2 exchange ratio of land-atmosphere fluxes (ER) can be used to identify sources and sinks of CO2 in land ecosystems. During photosynthesis, the O2:CO2 ER at the leaf level is approximately -1 mol mol-1, reflecting the uptake of one mole of CO2 associated with the release of one mole of O2. However, the ER at the level of entire ecosystems is largely unknown.

Here we present a unique dataset of two years of continuous O2 and CO2 flux measurements at the agricultural FLUXNET site Reinshof (51°29'24.0"N, 9°55'55.2"E, DE-Rns) near Göttingen, Germany, in 2023 and 2024. Fluxes were calculated using flux-gradient approaches with air sampled from three inlets situated at 0.5, 1.0 and 3.0 m above ground. Dry mole fractions of O2 and CO2 were measured using a modified Oxzilla II differential oxygen analyzer (Sable Systems, USA) and a Li-820 CO2 infrared gas analyser (LiCor Biosciences, USA), respectively.

The results show that O2 and CO2 mole fractions and net O2 and CO2 fluxes were strongly anticorrelated. The O2:CO2 flux ER showed a distinct annual cycle, with values around -1.5 mol mol-1 under bare soil conditions and -1.1 mol mol-1 during the main growing season when sugar beet (2023) and winter wheat (2024) was grown, respectively. An influence from anthropogenic emissions was observed during the winter with stable atmospheric stratification, when winds originated from the city centre of Göttingen or the nearby road. The longer vegetation period of sugar beet in 2023 was well reflected by extended O2 release and CO2 uptake, as well as ERs at around -1.1 mol mol-1.

In conclusion, the O2:CO2 ER of a cropland showed considerable seasonal variability, which offers the opportunity to use O2 flux measurements as a tracer of the carbon cycle.

How to cite: Markwitz, C., Tunsch, E., Manning, A., Pickers, P., and Knohl, A.: Continuous measurements of O2:CO2 flux exchange ratios above a cropland in central Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1695, 2025.

EGU25-2935 | Posters on site | AS2.3

Ensemble machine learning for interpretable soil heat flux estimation 

Darren Drewry and James Cross

Soil heat flux (SHF) is a key component of the surface energy balance and a driver of soil physiochemical and biological processes. Despite its importance accurate estimation of soil heat flux is hindered due to variations in soil composition, overlying vegetation density and phenology, and highly variable environmental forcings. These factors have challenged the development of robust models of SHF, with modeling studies focused on mid-day conditions corresponding to satellite overpass times, missing the significant variability that occurs throughout diurnal periods across a growing season. Here we assess the performance of ensemble machine learning modeling for predicting soil heat flux at half-hourly resolution for multiple agro-ecosystems. Observations span a wide range of phenological and climatological variability over a complete growing season. We utilized the random forest machine learning (ML) approach to develop a wide range of models utilizing combinations of predictor variables that include widely-available meteorological conditions and proximal remote sensing observations of reflectance indices and land surface temperature (LST). The performance of the ML models developed here was compared to a set of six semi-empirical soil heat flux models developed around the use of remote sensing information. The random forest ML ensembles demonstrated a general ability to significantly outperform the six semi-empirical models in capturing diurnal variations across the growing season for each of the four crops examined here (soybean, corn, sorghum and miscanthus). We found ML models using the complete set of meteorological and remote sensing predictors captured over 90% of the variability in SHF across all crops. ML models using only LST and NDVI as predictors were able to capture over 82% of SHF variability across all crops. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) methods were examined to allow for model interpretability, providing insights into the typically opaque ML modeling process. From a set of seven observation variables an exhaustive search was performed to identify predictor attributions for each of the four crops examined here. Models trained with fewer input variables tended to display more linear and interpretable feature attribution, suggestive of physical consistency. LST and air temperature were often the most crucial predictors when present due to high correlation with soil heat flux, with NDVI the next most crucial predictor due to its ability to quantify canopy density and phenological status. These results suggest that robust and accurate soil heat flux estimations can be made at high-temporal resolution purely through simple proximal remote sensing observations and widely available meteorological observations.

How to cite: Drewry, D. and Cross, J.: Ensemble machine learning for interpretable soil heat flux estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2935, 2025.

EGU25-3154 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Exploring Forest-Atmosphere Interactions Under Heat Extremes in a Semi-Arid Region  

Yotam Menachem, Leehi Magaritz-Ronen, Eyal Rotenberg, Lior Hochman, Shira Raveh-Rubin, and Dan Yakir

The potential effects of desert plantations, such as those used for climate change mitigation, during extreme heat waves remain an important and unresolved question. While the influence of large-scale surface heterogeneity, such as land-sea distribution and mountain ranges on weather, is well established and incorporated in operational numerical weather prediction models, the impact of smaller-scale heterogeneities remains uncertain. Specifically, the interplay between the synoptic forcing and the arising effects of mesoscale interactions is not yet fully understood.  

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East face intensified heat and drought due to climate change, impacting regional weather and local ecosystems. Semi-arid forests, such as the Yatir pine forest on the edge of the Negev Desert, provide a unique lens through which to study land surface-atmosphere feedback, particularly under extreme heat events. 

Ongoing studies show that due to high incoming solar radiation and its low albedo, the Yatir Forest net radiation is higher than in any other eco-regions, balanced by a large sensible heat flux. Thus, the resulting cooler surface suppresses the emission of longwave radiation compared with the surrounding warmer shrubland. The thermal contrast between the forest and the surrounding shrubland can also result in the development of secondary circulations within the PBL. The combined effects of these processes significantly modify the surface-atmosphere energy exchange, can affect the forest microclimate, and, if extended to a larger scale, could potentially impact regional weather and climate.

This research investigates the interactions between the Yatir Forest and the atmosphere under dry heat extremes, focusing on mechanisms driving radiation dynamics, energy fluxes, and local circulations. Our approach combines in-situ measurements from the Yatir Forest, atmospheric reanalysis data, Lagrangian analysis, and high-resolution simulations using the ICON numerical weather prediction model. Through a series of numerical forest configuration experiments incorporating forest-atmosphere feedback, we examine the potential of semi-arid afforestation to influence boundary layer dynamics, exploring the implications for local and potentially regional moderation of extreme climatic events and sustainable land use. We incorporate the concept of the canopy convector effect for semi-arid regions to demonstrate the sensitivity of the numerical results to surface parameters and synoptic conditions causing heat waves.  

  • Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel (yotam.menachem@weizmann.ac.il)

How to cite: Menachem, Y., Magaritz-Ronen, L., Rotenberg, E., Hochman, L., Raveh-Rubin, S., and Yakir, D.: Exploring Forest-Atmosphere Interactions Under Heat Extremes in a Semi-Arid Region , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3154, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3154, 2025.

Open-path (OP) infrared gas analyzers (IRGA) are widely used for CO2 eddy covariance flux measurements in diverse ecosystems, including in arid desert environments. These high sensible heat and low CO2 flux conditions can lead to a systematic bias in the estimation of the carbon exchange. Numerous studies using both open- and closed-path IRGAs report large overestimates of CO2 uptake in the OP measurements, which persists for all seasons and is not driven by biological activity, but rather by instrumentation artefacts. Despite the attempts to address these biases, their origin and the appropriate correction approaches remain unresolved. Sensor-path heat exchange has been considered as a potential source of the bias. Consequently, later models OP gas analyzers have eliminated the self-heating effects, yet they still exhibit apparent CO2 uptake. In this study we consider the influence of ambient air temperature on the absorption in the CO2 spectral band typically used in non-dispersive broadband IRGAs as the source of the bias. We show the results from simulations of infrared transmission in the CO2 spectral band using high resolution molecular transmission (HITRAN) database.  We evaluated the temperature sensitivity of an IRGA by simulating integrated absorption spectra for a typical interference optical filter with a 100 nm passband where the CO2 density was kept constant, and the gas mixture temperature was varied between 244 and 385 K. The data show that if the absorption is not corrected for temperature of the air in the optical sensing path a bias is introduced. The bias causes underestimation of CO2 density at warmer temperatures and overestimation of CO2 density at low temperatures. We conclude that OP gas analyzer measurements need to be corrected for the effects of changes in air temperature in the sensing path. We demonstrate that the correction is not universal, but rather instrument specific and depends on the actual pass band of the specific interference filter used.

How to cite: Bogoev, I.: Addressing a sensible heat bias in open-path eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4594, 2025.

EGU25-5075 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

High-resolution monitoring of CO2/O2 transport in recharge wells 

Ehud Lavner, Avner Gross, and Elad Levintal

The Earth's surface forms a dynamic boundary characterized by continuous gas exchanges between the critical zone and the overlying atmosphere. As global concern grows over climate change driven by increasing levels of greenhouse gases – such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) – abandoned oil, gas, and even groundwater wells can be significant sources of these emissions. Here, we monitor CO2 and oxygen (O2) and quantify the CO2 flux in two different recharge wells – one that extends below the groundwater level (wet well) and one that reaches into the unsaturated zone above the groundwater level (dry well). Novel monitoring systems that measure CO2, O2, temperature, and relative humidity were installed at the top and bottom of each well, enabling high-resolution, continuous data collection at 1-min time intervals. Using atmospheric measurements taken from a nearby meteorological station, we investigate the mechanisms that influence the air transport between the wells and the atmosphere. The high-resolution measurements indicate different air transport mechanisms between the two wells. In the wet well, there was stratification during the summer, with consistently high CO2 values ​​measured at the bottom of the well while low values ​​were measured at the top of the well. In the dry well, two daily outflow cycles were observed, with high CO2 concentrations and fluxes from the well to the atmosphere. These findings highlight the potential contribution of recharge wells to CO₂ emissions and the importance of understanding their transport mechanisms.

How to cite: Lavner, E., Gross, A., and Levintal, E.: High-resolution monitoring of CO2/O2 transport in recharge wells, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5075, 2025.

EGU25-6444 | Orals | AS2.3

Towards improved understanding on flow decoupling at eddy covariance sites with the aid of a universal coupling metric 

Olli Peltola, Toprak Aslan, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Dario Papale, Christoph K. Thomas, and Timo Vesala

Eddy covariance (EC) flux observations deviate from the fluxes at the ecosystem-atmosphere interface when the turbulent flow is decoupled from the surface. This problem severely limits the applicability of the EC technique to monitor ecosystem-atmosphere interactions including trace gas exchange. Despite some progress on understanding vertical coupling processes over the past years, the role and interplay of dynamic stability, canopy drag, and the strength of vertical turbulent mixing remains insufficiently understood. Furthermore, the commonly used metric to identify decoupling, friction velocity, does not represent these processes.

In this work we use the recently developed decoupling metric Omega to detect decoupling at 45 contrasting EC sites across a broad range of canopy architectures and biomes (Peltola et al. 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110326). Omega encapsulates the main processes controlling decoupling in a single dimensionless metric, thus providing a unified framework for studying coupling at all sites. We focus on evaluating the applicability of Omega to detect decoupling at these sites and use it to evaluate the processes controlling decoupling across sites.

The results show that Omega was able to identify coupling at all tested sites satisfactorily. The vertical turbulent carbon dioxide flux showed a similar Omega dependence at all sites, although there was some site-to-site variability. In contrast, when the change in storage flux term was added to the analysis, the similarity between sites disappeared. This suggests that the storage flux term depends on parameters other than those controlling vertical turbulent mixing. Canopy drag played an important role in the formation of decoupling at dense forest sites, and at such sites decoupling was observed even during the day.

Based on these findings, we delineate different Omega regimes in which different mass balance terms (vertical turbulent flux, storage flux and advective components) are important, and discuss improved approaches for detecting the regime where the sum of vertical turbulent flux and storage flux equals the surface gas exchange.

How to cite: Peltola, O., Aslan, T., Aurela, M., Lohila, A., Mammarella, I., Papale, D., Thomas, C. K., and Vesala, T.: Towards improved understanding on flow decoupling at eddy covariance sites with the aid of a universal coupling metric, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6444, 2025.

EGU25-6639 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Methodological challenges for understory eddy-covariance measurements 

Alexander Platter, Albin Hammerle, and Georg Wohlfahrt

Understory eddy-covariance measurements provide valuable insights into ecosystem CO2 exchange processes, particularly in understanding the interplay between understory and overstory exchange processes. However, their placement deep within the canopy presents some methodological challenges not typically encountered in standard eddy-covariance measurements above the canopy, where surface layer assumptions are generally applicable.

Key challenges arise from the violation of these surface layer assumptions in common flux correction and quality control procedures. Traditional frequency response corrections for flux calculations often rely on idealized cospectra derived from surface layer theory. These assumptions do not hold within the canopy, where spectra and cospectra exhibit distinct characteristics. Furthermore, commonly used turbulence-based quality control metrics, like the integral turbulence test, rely on surface layer scaling relationships to compare measured and modeled fluxes. The application of these relationships within the canopy is questionable due to the altered turbulence structure. For net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measurements, conventional filtering methods, such as friction velocity (u*) filtering, aim to identify periods when measured fluxes are expected to closely represent the true NEE. However, the low fluxes and turbulence characteristic of the understory environment complicate the reliable application of these filtering approaches.

This study critically examines and revises established correction and quality control procedures specifically for understory eddy-covariance measurements. We investigate the impact of these revised methods on understory CO2 exchange estimates using data from an understory site in Tyrol, Austria (At-Mmg). Our results are further compared with the total net ecosystem exchange estimated by an above-canopy eddy-covariance system over the past three years.

 

How to cite: Platter, A., Hammerle, A., and Wohlfahrt, G.: Methodological challenges for understory eddy-covariance measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6639, 2025.

EGU25-6957 | Posters on site | AS2.3

Carbon fluxes controlled by land management and disturbances at a cluster of long-term ecosystem monitoring sites in Central Europe 

Thomas Grünwald, Matthias Mauder, Luise Wanner, Markus Hehn, Uta Moderow, Ronald Queck, Heiko Prasse, and Christian Bernhofer

Terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in carbon sequestration and provide vital ecosystem services such as food, energy, and raw materials. Climate change, through rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme events, threatens the carbon sink potential of these ecosystems, with forests and grasslands particularly at risk. Long-term data from flux tower networks offer valuable insights into how different ecosystems respond to climate change and management interventions, helping to develop strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and maintain ecosystem resilience. In this study, we present such data from a <10 km cluster of long-term FLUXNET/ICOS sites in Central Europe, comprising an old spruce forest (DE-Tha), a young oak plantation after a cleared windthrow (DE-Hzd), a permanent grassland site (DE-Gri), and an agricultural site with a crop rotation typical for this region (DE-Kli). By analysing decades of data from these four eddy covariance measurement sites, the research highlights the influence of drought, management, and land cover changes on CO2 and H2O fluxes. The interannual variability of evapotranspiration depends less on land use than the CO2 exchange. Our findings show that  forests without terminal disturbances can act as larger carbon sinks than previously estimated. DE-Tha is a consistent carbon sink, with thinning helping to maintain the CO2 sequestration at a stable level of 350 gC m−2 a−1. In contrast, disturbances like clear cutting or windthrow can cause ecosystems to become carbon sources for several years, with recovery delayed due to soil carbon losses from increased respiration (DE-Hzd). While DE-Hzd was resilient to drought, the carbon uptake of DE-Tha was significantly reduced by around 50% during dry years compared to wet years. Furthermore, sustainable management maintains carbon sequestration and land-use practices, such as crop selection, significantly impact net ecosystem productivity. These insights are valuable for optimizing land management strategies to enhance carbon sinks in similar regions.

How to cite: Grünwald, T., Mauder, M., Wanner, L., Hehn, M., Moderow, U., Queck, R., Prasse, H., and Bernhofer, C.: Carbon fluxes controlled by land management and disturbances at a cluster of long-term ecosystem monitoring sites in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6957, 2025.

We present first results of a new BROOK90 hydrological model version. This new version includes a closed energy and water balance for subdaily time steps based on an adapted Shuttleworth-Wallace model for the description of energy and water fluxes for different evaporation components, like interception, soil evaporation and transpiration. The simulation results have been compared to ICOS eddy-covariance measurements from the Anchor Station Tharandt for the year 2022.

The comparison shows considerable good result for 30-minute estimates of latent and sensible heat fluxes from dry surfaces, whiles simulated fluxes from wet surfaces perform worse. Snow conditions seem to be almost random, but rainy conditions might possess a certain correlation between measured and simulated fluxes. Reason for these results can be found on the one hand in the choice of model parameters for vegetation like maximal canopy resistances, leaf area index or canopy height in the model and on the other hand, limitations of the eddy-covariance measurements under wet conditions.

How to cite: Kronenberg, R., Vorobevskii, I., and Luong, T. T.: First results of an extended BROOK90 hydrological model to estimate subdaily water and energy fluxes. A case study of ICOS Anchor station in Tharandt, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9419, 2025.

EGU25-9629 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Metrological Traceability in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Flux 

Alberto Bottacin, Michela Sega, Francesca Durbiano, Francesca Rolle, and Nicola Arriga

The Eddy Covariance (EC) technique is widely used to quantify carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, playing a crucial role in climate research and carbon cycle studies. To maximize the impact and the meaningfulness of these measurements, they have to be comparable in time and space. The reliability and comparability of EC data critically depend on ensuring metrological traceability to SI units through national standards or internationally agreed references by means of rigorous calibration practices.

This study examines the traceability chain for key EC components (air temperature and pressure, wind components and CO2 concentration in air), emphasizing calibration processes for gas analyzers. Gas analyzers, which measure CO2 amount fractions, are calibrated using traceable gas mixtures, such as Certified Reference Materials, linked to primary national standards, ensuring accuracy and minimizing biases. We assess the impact of the calibration uncertainty on overall flux estimates and propose a methodology for periodic recalibration of the analysers to account for their drift and response to environmental influences.

By establishing robust links to national metrology standards, this work enhances the traceability and reliability of EC data across diverse ecosystems and temporal scales. The outcomes provide a foundation for harmonizing EC networks globally, improving confidence in CO2 flux measurements and their role in shaping evidence-based climate policies. This focus on calibration underscores the importance of metrology in advancing the precision and usefulness of environmental measurements.

 

How to cite: Bottacin, A., Sega, M., Durbiano, F., Rolle, F., and Arriga, N.: Metrological Traceability in Eddy Covariance Measurements of CO2 Flux, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9629, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9629, 2025.

EGU25-9912 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Parametrization of extremely heterogeneous land-surface processes 

Christian Wedemeyer and Yaping Shao

The land surface plays a crucial role in the climate system, significantly influencing the exchanges of energy, mass, and momentum among the atmosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere. While land-surface processes in homogeneous terrains are well understood and effectively integrated into the parameterization schemes of existing weather models, our understanding of these processes in extremely heterogeneous regions remains insufficient. This gap in knowledge limits our capacity to accurately parameterize land-surface interactions in such areas. Extremely heterogeneous surfaces are characterized by a variety of soil types and pronounced orographic features, such as mountains or steep slopes.

State-of-the-art weather models commonly utilize the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) for parameterizing surface momentum, heat, and moisture fluxes. However, these similarity functions are based on empirical data obtained from field campaigns conducted in homogeneous environments. When these functions are applied to extremely heterogeneous regions, they can produce large biases between modeled and observed surface sensible or latent heat fluxes. Furthermore, in large-eddy simulations (LES), the underlying assumptions of MOST - such as horizontal homogeneity and stationarity - are often violated. Additionally, inconsistencies arise between the fluxes calculated using subgrid closure schemes and those derived from MOST in the surface layer.

To tackle these challenges, we propose an alternative approach that circumvents the use of MOST for parameterizing surface fluxes. In land-surface-parameterization schemes, surface fluxes are often determined using resistance networks. Instead of estimating these resistances using MOST, our aerodynamic resistance approach (ARA) uses the eddy viscosity/diffusivity calculated by the subgrid closure schemes.

First tests in idealized large-eddy simulations (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) show that the ARA-calculated surface fluxes are more consistent with the subgrid closure calculations than the MOST-derived fluxes. Next, the ARA will be tested in real-case simulations of the Tengchong site (China) on the Tibetan plateau which is known for its heterogeneous landscape. Moreover, the simulation results will be compared to observational data which has been available at the site for more than 12 years.

How to cite: Wedemeyer, C. and Shao, Y.: Parametrization of extremely heterogeneous land-surface processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9912, 2025.

EGU25-10813 | ECS | Orals | AS2.3

Analysing the time scales of variability in carbon dioxide and energy balance components of a tropical Amazon rainforest in central Peru 

Lea Heidemann, Eric Cosio, Rudi Cruz, Juliane Diller, Armin Niessner, Johannes Olesch, Norma Salinas, Rafael Stern, and Christoph Thomas

The Amazon Rainforest plays a vital role in the global carbon and water cycle, yet responses of old growth tropical rainforests to climate change and rising CO2 concentrations remain poorly understood. Especially the western part of the Amazon is underrepresented in ecohydrological studies. At the Panguana research station, as part of the AndesFlux Network, fluxes of CO2, water vapor and the dynamics of the CO2, CH4 and water vapor profile inside the forest and above the 35 m tall canopy have been continuously monitored since December 2023 to fill this gap and determine whether this site acts as a net source or sink for carbon. Building on this objective, our focus extends to understanding the timescales and ecosystem drivers responsible for flux variability, a crucial step toward predicting ecosystem responses to future changes.

As the main objective, we aim at understanding what are the main drivers for ecosystem flux variability, e.g. incoming solar radiation, water availability, or water vapor deficit and on which timescale we can detect the highest variability of ecosystem fluxes. In a tropical region the highest variability in an annual dataset would be expected to occur on a seasonal timescale. However, we did not observe the expected difference in latent heat flux when comparing the mean dial course on a seasonal basis. Surprisingly, we found the highest variability of latent heat flux to occur on much shorter timescales of up to ten days, coinciding with variability of incoming shortwave radiation for which a timescale of highest variability of eight days was detected. Understanding the processes causing this periodicity in latent heat flux in a tropical region and resulting effects on CO2 flux is the primary objective of this analysis.

A further objective of this study presented here is to calculate a CO2-based carbon budget, with the inclusion of the storage term change to understand the effect of ecosystem respiration at night. While the methane exchange to the carbon budget may be significant at this site, it is outside the scope of the current study. Additional objectives of this project include calculating the energy balance of this site and analysing at the surface water balance to better understand seasonal differences and their impact on the carbon cycle.

After calculating the 4h-daytime energy balance closure with different perturbation time scales, we selected a perturbation timescale of 20 min as the best compromise between reducing the systematic and random flux errors. This choice leads to a high energy balance closure of 75% over the course of one year maximizing to 80% when calculated for the rainy season.

These analyses contribute to a deeper understanding of the driving processes of ecosystem exchange in the tropical rainforest near the Andes and help to assess how this part of the Amazon basin may respond to future changes in water availability and atmospheric circulation.

How to cite: Heidemann, L., Cosio, E., Cruz, R., Diller, J., Niessner, A., Olesch, J., Salinas, N., Stern, R., and Thomas, C.: Analysing the time scales of variability in carbon dioxide and energy balance components of a tropical Amazon rainforest in central Peru, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10813, 2025.

EGU25-10940 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Measuring urban surface fluxes using a mobile eddy-covariance system at a fine resolution to develop a heat mitigation strategy in a mid-sized European city   

Lars Spakowski, Sophie Resch, Johannes Olesch, and Christoph Thomas

As demographic trends continue to point towards urbanisation and urban climate change-related health risks are increasing, a fundamental understanding of the processes that shape the urban boundary layer climate is becoming increasingly important. While previous studies have used mobile measurement devices to measure instantaneous physical weather elements in high spatial resolution in an urban environment, high-resolution measurement data on atmospheric flux densities in cities is scarce.

We present an innovative approach to measure latent and sensible heat fluxes, as well as CO2 fluxes and further flow statistics as TKE in a mid-sized city (75,000 citizens) in Central Europe using a mobile eddy-covariance (EC) system on a cargo bike with first measurements executed during a radiation night and three consecutive heat days in August 2024. Our goal was to gain flux density data for several street transects in a heterogeneous urban environment during the hottest and coldest time periods of the day. To compare the measured temperature and humidity used for the eddy-covariance calculations, we set up eight weather stations mounted on streetlights along our measurement route, at which we stopped for two minutes each. Motion data was observed with an integrated high precision inertial navigation system (INS) to adjust the EC observation for bicycle movements. To ensure nearly steady-state conditions were fulfilled, the perturbation and averaging periods were fitted to calculate flux densities along approximately homogeneous street transects. As the bike velocity of 4 to 6 m s-1 only allows for relatively short averaging periods of up to a minute in the heterogenous environment, only the high-frequency fraction of the turbulence spectrum can be quantified. Assuming a similar distribution of the inertial subrange turbulence across the research area, this choice still allowed for comparison of the fluxes along the route.

With our route traversing a range of land surface conditions from a densely built-up district centre to a floodplain valley adjacent to the city, we were able to determine a strong heterogeneity in the expression of the urban heat and park cool islands within our study area. First results of the EC calculations indicate the capability of our mobile flux system to detect fine differences in flux densities within the heterogeneous urban environment.

Our flux measurements together with the additionally measured weather elements of solar radiation, temperature, humidity, wind direction and wind speed from the eight stationary micro weather stations within the study area provide the foundation for the development of a heat adaption strategy in the city district aiming at creating an environment with diminished health risks and urban heat island effects. 

How to cite: Spakowski, L., Resch, S., Olesch, J., and Thomas, C.: Measuring urban surface fluxes using a mobile eddy-covariance system at a fine resolution to develop a heat mitigation strategy in a mid-sized European city  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10940, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10940, 2025.

EGU25-11746 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Evaluating a Flux Footprint Model Using Tracer Release Experiments and Tall Tower Eddy Covariance Measurements 

Ziqiong Wang, Konstantinos Kissas, Charlotte Scheutz, and Andreas Ibrom

In complex and heterogeneous landscapes, determining the spatial origin of measured fluxes is critical for interpreting eddy covariance (EC) data accurately. To address this, footprint models are used to simulate the transport of turbulence and quantify the contribution of different areas within the source region. These models rely on theoretical assumptions, such as homogeneous and stationary atmospheric conditions, which often deviate significantly from real-world conditions particularly in terrains with uneven topography or land cover. This discrepancy may lead to substantial uncertainties, as the models may fail to accurately represent the true flux contributions under these non-ideal conditions.

To evaluate the reliability of the Flux Footprint Prediction (FFP) model (Kljun et al., 2015) and its performance under real-world conditions, we conducted three tracer release campaigns in the upwind region of a tall tower EC greenhouse gas observation system located at Hove (55.7169°N, 12.2375°E), a rural area west of Copenhagen, Denmark. The experiments utilized acetylene (C₂H₂) as the tracer gas, released at a controlled and precisely known emission rate.  The FFP model were assessed using data from different averaging intervals, enabling a detailed comparison of temporal resolutions and their impact on flux estimates.

The observed fluxes were systematically compared with the model predictions, allowing us to identify discrepancies and provide critical insights into the strengths and limitations of the FFP model, particularly in rural and heterogeneous landscapes. Moreover, the analysis highlights the influence of averaging intervals on the agreement between measured and modelled fluxes. This work also provides a reference for applying tracer release experiments in heterogeneous terrain using the tall tower EC system, contributing to the understanding of experimental design and model validation in such environments.

How to cite: Wang, Z., Kissas, K., Scheutz, C., and Ibrom, A.: Evaluating a Flux Footprint Model Using Tracer Release Experiments and Tall Tower Eddy Covariance Measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11746, 2025.

For the past five decades, modelers have relied on Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) to model surface exchanges for application in atmospheric models for boundary layer meteorology and weather and climate prediction. During this time, studies have also illuminated some of the limitations of MOST based surface layer parameterizations, particularly when MOST’s foundational assumptions of flat and horizontally homogeneous terrain are violated. Recent work over groups of meteorological towers from Stiperski and Calaf 2023 have provided a promising method to account for these deviations from the ideal, traditional MOST using the anisotropy of turbulence to create new surface exchange relations. These modified relations may be able to capture the deviations from MOST specifically around non-homogeneous surfaces, and non-stationarity. To further assess the validity of the Stiperski relations, we examine them over 7 years of turbulence data from the 47, ecologically diverse eddy-covariance tower sites in the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON) and develop new anisotropy generalized MOST scalings for the scalar variances of moisture and carbon.

 

The relations from Stiperski and Calaf 2023 show significant improvement over traditional MOST based schemes for predicting the velocity variances as well as the variances of heat, moisture and carbon in the NEON network under both stable and unstable stratification. This extends the work of Stiperski and Calaf to vegetated canopies, where the scaling has not been previously examined. The improvement is consistent across the varied ecosystems present in NEON, including tropical, arctic, and mountainous sites. For the streamwise velocity variance, for example, we see a median improvement (measured with a skill score) of 40% at the NEON sites. Characteristics of anisotropy are also examined across the sites, with an eye towards developing model relations for turbulence anisotropy applicable in large scale schemes (i.e. numerical weather prediction and earth system models. Initial results for the scaling of the gradients of heat and momentum, which can be used to parameterize surface fluxes in the modeling context, are also shown, with promising improvement over traditional MOST despite significant scatter. The route for application of these schemes in surface layer parameterizations in ESMs is also briefly explored, with an eye towards the potential for significant improvements in modeling of surface exchange.

 

 

How to cite: Waterman, T., Stiperski, I., and Calaf, M.: Extending Generalized Surface Layer Scaling to Diverse, Complex Terrain and Canopies for Improved Land-Atmosphere Exchange, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11806, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11806, 2025.

EGU25-12023 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Irrigation impacts on the severe summer 2003 drought and heat wave event in Central Europe 

Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann

Irrigation is triggered through climatic conditions, but reversely affects the climate itself. A model sensitivity analysis of the irrigation impacts on the severe summer 2003 drought and heat wave event in Central Europe is carried out here. For this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed with a newly developed and modified irrigation scheme. A two-domain nested setup with 12 km horizontal grid resolution in the outer domain and convection-resolving 3 km in the inner domain is selected. Two ensembles, one with and one without irrigation, are initialized to assess the irrigation impacts with greater security. Four subregions are defined: a region containing all of Germany, two small regions with locally higher irrigation amounts within Germany and an area in the Po Valley, the region with highest irrigation quantities in Central Europe. This way, the influence of different irrigation amounts is investigated. Impacts on the following variables are examined in different temporal scales: air temperature, soil moisture, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), sensible and latent heat flux, moisture flux divergence, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition (CIN). The results indicate that the overall influence of irrigation during the extreme event is rather small. This is related to the comparatively low irrigation amounts and the extreme conditions. A partially significant increase in soil moisture in the topsoil layer occurs in the Po Valley. Generally, irrigation is found to reduce PBLH and sensible heat flux as well as increasing the latent heat flux. In addition, a cooling effect is partly found in the daily mean cycle of temperature. Furthermore, there are visible effects on moisture flux divergence (tendency to decrease or convergence), on CAPE (increase) and on CIN (less increase). These effects are most pronounced in the Po Valley due to the higher irrigation amounts.

How to cite: Petrovic, D., Fersch, B., and Kunstmann, H.: Irrigation impacts on the severe summer 2003 drought and heat wave event in Central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12023, 2025.

EGU25-12704 | Orals | AS2.3

Spatial source attribution of eddy covariance flux data by inversion optimization 

Mark Schlutow, Ray Chew, Theresia Yazbeck, and Mathias Göckede

Since eddy covariance (EC) flux towers are typically mounted within structured landscapes, interpreting EC flux data is complicated due to spatial heterogeneity, which may exhibit sources and sinks simultaneously. This complexity makes it challenging to understand mechanisms and controls determining flux budgets for the individual land cover types that make up the entire ecosystem. Therefore, it complicates the scaling of flux results in space and/or time, or comparing EC fluxes under different environmental conditions.

We present a novel tool to decompose blended flux data from EC towers into individual components emitted by different land cover types within the tower’s footprint. The tool has two key components: 1) an exceptionally efficient algorithm that solves the steady-state transport equation, and 2) a linear optimizer to solve the inversion problem. This design allows for the analysis of years of continuous EC data on a typical desktop computer in a short time, with output consisting of half-hourly flux data for each land cover type individually.

The approach is entirely data-driven and can be applied to the fluxes of energy and scalars such as methane, N2O, or CO2. The model takes as input a land cover map containing the footprint and the standard output from the raw eddy data processing software, EddyPro. The accuracy of the flux attribution tool was validated using two EC towers in close proximity, sharing the same ecosystem and meteorological conditions, but with different land cover structures in the footprint. The agreement between the inversion results for each of the towers proves its applicability for a wide range of research questions.

How to cite: Schlutow, M., Chew, R., Yazbeck, T., and Göckede, M.: Spatial source attribution of eddy covariance flux data by inversion optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12704, 2025.

While covering only about 3% of the global land surface, peatlands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon (C) and 12–21% of global soil organic nitrogen (N). Pristine peatland soils typically function as minor sinks for carbon dioxide (CO2), moderate sources of methane (CH4), and minor to moderate sources of nitrous oxide (N2O). However, over the past century, extensive drainage of peatlands for forestry, particularly in temperate and boreal regions, has substantially altered the dynamics of greenhouse gases (GHG).

The lowering of the groundwater table has a crucial impact on soil GHG exchange with aerobic conditions inhibiting methanogenesis, thereby reducing CH4 flux, while simultaneously increasing N2O flux and accelerating peat decomposition. These changes transform peatlands from carbon sinks to net carbon sources and intensify their N2O emissions. However, actively growing tree stands may partially offset soil carbon losses through sequestration and indirectly modulate CH4 and N2O fluxes by altering soil moisture and microbial activity.

While the net ecosystem exchange of drained peatland forest soils is relatively well studied, there's limited knowledge regarding ecosystem-scale GHG fluxes, especially in the transitional hemiboreal forest zone. In this study, we present the first years of eddy-covariance measurements of CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes from a drained peatland forest in Eastern Estonia. The site, drained in the early 1970s via an open-ditch network, is dominated by Downy Birch (Betula pubescens, 64%) and Norway Spruce (Picea abies, 36%). The current soil profile, classified as Drainic Eutric Histosol, features a peat layer approximately one meter thick and a moderate C:N ratio (15.1) in the upper soil horizon. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on peatland forest GHG fluxes, offering valuable data for managing forested peatlands in a changing climate.

How to cite: Krasnova, A., Soosaar, K., and Mander, Ü.: The greenhouse gas exchange of a drained peatland forest: first insights from eddy-covariance measurements of CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in Estonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13303, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13303, 2025.

EGU25-14269 | Orals | AS2.3

Investigating the Role of Kilometer-scale Surface Thermal Heterogeneity in Secondary Circulations Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Doppler Lidars 

Nathaniel Chaney, Peter Germ, Marc Calaf, Eric Pardyjak, and Tyler Waterman

Spatially organized km-scale surface thermal heterogeneity can lead to the formation of secondary circulations, which, in turn, can influence the boundary layer and the initiation, development, and enhancement of cumulus clouds. While the importance of this process is becoming well recognized, quantitative understanding of the relationship between thermal heterogeneity and the corresponding circulations remains largely confined to modeling studies. In this study, we use observational data from the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to explore how combining satellite remote sensing of land surface temperature (LST) with a mesoscale network of Doppler lidars can help understand the role of surface thermal heterogeneity in driving secondary circulations.
We analyze data from five Doppler lidars at SGP, which have been continuously measuring vertical profiles of wind components (u, v, w) at high temporal frequency since 2016. The combination of the five time-varying profiles are used to compute vertically integrated dispersive kinetic energy (DKE) at each time step as an indirect measure of circulation strength. LST data from GOES-16/17 is then used to quantify surface thermal heterogeneity, particularly in the morning hours. Our analysis focuses on days with minimal synoptic forcing to isolate local effects. Preliminary results show a statistically significant positive correlation between surface thermal heterogeneity and DKE, suggesting a link to the strength of secondary circulations. This study highlights the potential to improve our understanding of this process and provides a valuable tool for evaluating Earth system models that aim to represent the role of km-scale thermal heterogeneity in the atmosphere.

How to cite: Chaney, N., Germ, P., Calaf, M., Pardyjak, E., and Waterman, T.: Investigating the Role of Kilometer-scale Surface Thermal Heterogeneity in Secondary Circulations Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Doppler Lidars, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14269, 2025.

EGU25-15199 | ECS | Orals | AS2.3

Discovering new Influences on Dispersive Heat Fluxes over Heterogeneous Surfaces with Machine Learning 

Benita Wagner, Matthias Karlbauer, Martin Butz, Matthias Mauder, and Luise Wanner

To better understand and quantify the dynamics of surface thermal heterogeneities and their effect on energy transport in form of dispersive fluxes within the atmospheric boundary layer, we investigate the significance and applicability of the heterogeneity parameter after Margairaz et al. (2020). We aim to overcome this non-dimensional scaling quantity, since it depends on parameters such as the heterogeneity length, scale, and temperature amplitude, which are originally determined for checker-board-type surfaces but may be less suited to describe the complexity of real-world surface structures. To address this goal, we train separate artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dispersive sensible and latent heat fluxes for a randomized quadratically shaped heterogeneity distribution, as well as for datasets from the CHEESEHEAD19 campaign representing a real-world complex surface heterogeneity with a broad spectrum of patch sizes and gradual changes in surface characteristics. To investigate the role of the different input variables, we train various ANNs receiving different combinations of variables and compute feature importance weightings afterwards. We scrutinize the role of traditional input variables such as the heterogeneity parameter, temperature or humidity gradients, boundary layer height, and atmospheric stability measures. Further, we consider the incorporation of raw input features, such as horizontal and vertical wind speed, temperatures, and humidities. Finally, we incorporate spatial temperature maps, which we pre-process with a convolutional ANN. We make three core observations. First, the incorporation of raw input features beyond traditional variables improves both the dispersive sensible and latent heat flux diagnosis, suggesting room for improvement in the input variable selection and combination. Second, the inclusion of the spatial temperature map is more meaningful for dispersive latent than for sensible heat flux diagnosis. Third, the heterogeneity parameter after Margairaz et al. (2020) is informative for synthetic randomized quadratically shaped surfaces, but not for real-world complex surface heterogeneity environments, in which case the spatial temperature map processed by a convolutional ANN is most valuable. The results imply that the role of the compressed spatial temperature map should be explored further. We ultimately aim to extract an equation from the neural network characterizing heterogeneous surfaces. Furthermore, the incorporation of the other identified useful raw input features – ideally in form of an equation – needs to be assessed in further depth. 

How to cite: Wagner, B., Karlbauer, M., Butz, M., Mauder, M., and Wanner, L.: Discovering new Influences on Dispersive Heat Fluxes over Heterogeneous Surfaces with Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15199, 2025.

EGU25-15275 | ECS | Orals | AS2.3

Urban effects on atmospheric boundary-layer clouds, mixed-layer height and fog detected by a dense network of ceilometers in Berlin, Germany 

Daniel Fenner, Andreas Christen, Sue Grimmond, Simone Kotthaus, Fred Meier, and Matthias Zeeman

Gaining a deeper understanding of dynamic interactions between cities and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and ABL processes in general is crucial for, e.g., the development and application of next-generation numerical weather prediction and climate modelling. In this context, detailed ABL observations provide essential information to identify potential spatial heterogeneity in urban and rural environments with respect to surface-atmosphere exchanges and resulting ABL characteristics such as ABL clouds.

As part of the year-long urbisphere-Berlin measurement campaign in Berlin, Germany (October 2021-September 2022), a wide range of ABL observations were carried out to study impacts of the city on the ABL. Central to the deployed systematic network were 25 sites with ground-based Automatic Lidar and Ceilometers (ALC) to measure aerosol backscatter for investigation of intra-urban, urban-rural, and upwind-city-downwind effects of ABL clouds and detection of the mixed layer.

Here, we present a systematic investigation of year-round effects of the city on ABL cloud-base height and cloud-cover fraction, mixed-layer height, and near-surface fog conditions, exploiting the dense ALC network. The comprehensive data set allows studies along diurnal and annual cycles in high temporal resolution, as well as obtaining robust statistical results for groups of sites, considering spatial heterogeneity due to local effects around the sites. Our analyses show city effects on ABL clouds along the diurnal cycle including upwind-city-downwind effects, yet also depending on cloud type and season. Mixed-layer height undergoes a distinctive annual cycle, being systematically higher above the city and with intra-urban differentiation. Over the year, the occurrence of ground-based fog is on average 1,5 times more frequently found at rural sites compared to city sites, most prominent differences are found during autumn and winter. These results are the first that are based on the complete year-long urbisphere-Berlin ALC data and highlight potentials and benefits of such high-resolution observational data sets from ground-based remote sensing for future investigations.

How to cite: Fenner, D., Christen, A., Grimmond, S., Kotthaus, S., Meier, F., and Zeeman, M.: Urban effects on atmospheric boundary-layer clouds, mixed-layer height and fog detected by a dense network of ceilometers in Berlin, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15275, 2025.

EGU25-17589 | Orals | AS2.3

Metrology for fluxes: eddy covariance measurement uncertainty 

Nicola Arriga and Alberto Bottacin

The uncertainty evaluation of eddy covariance flux measurements has been thoroughly developed in the last two decades. However, the various methods proposed are not yet fully compliant with the internationally accepted metrological guidelines, e.g. those indicated in the Guide to expression of uncertainty in measurement and related supplements issued by the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology and internationally adopted as reference in metrology. Scope of this presentation is to implement the formal methodology for the determination of a combined standard uncertainty for the estimated fluxes through the law of propagation of uncertainty, assuming independent variables. Compared to previous methods, this approach considers the complete flux equation, including the coordinate rotations and the physical conversions and, most importantly, provides an easy to implement analytical tool to quantify the individual contributions to the full measurement uncertainty arising from all the variables actually included in the calculation (turbulent wind components, scalar of interest, air temperature and pressure). The linear method adopted for uncertainty propagation has been also validated through a Monte Carlo simulation, which is the gold standard for propagating probability distributions. The methodology has been applied to a full year of carbon dioxide fluxes measured in the San Rossore 2 ICOS Ecosystem Station, a Mediterranean forest, but it is valid for most of the common eddy covariance systems, being based on theoretical principles. The median of the estimated relative uncertainty of the flux over the considered year is 13.5%, assuming an instrumental uncertainty of 30 Pa for the barometer, 0.5 °C for the thermometer, 4 ppm for the CO2 analyzer and 0.4 m/s for the three components of the sonic anemometer. The main uncertainty contributions come from the analyzer and the vertical component of the anemometer, with medians of the evaluated relative uncertainties equal to 11.9% and 3.25%, respectively. Preliminary results suggest that the method is robust and confirm expectations about the relative contribution of the different instruments used for flux determination, but at the same time constitute a tool for a sounder metrological assessment of all eddy covariance measurements and applications.

How to cite: Arriga, N. and Bottacin, A.: Metrology for fluxes: eddy covariance measurement uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17589, 2025.

Land-atmosphere (L-A) feedback plays a key role in the evolution of Earth’s weather and climate system. However, the understanding and simulation of land-atmosphere interaction still suffers from severe limitations and errors. For instance, Abramowitz et al. (2024) demonstrated that the simulation of surface fluxes by land-atmosphere models, irrespective of their complexity, strongly deviates from observations. Similarly, Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) seems to be inadequate (Wulfmeyer et al. 2023) for the parameterization of evapotranspiration, but is nevertheless used in almost all coupled land-atmosphere system models.  

The overarching goal of LAFI is to understand and quantify L-A feedbacks via unique synergistic observations and model simulations from the micro-gamma (» 2 m) to the meso-gamma (» 2 km) scales across diurnal to seasonal time scales. In this presentation, we give an overview of the objectives and the current results of LAFI with respect to the understanding of surface-layer flow and fluxes, the energy balance closure (EBC), and entrainment over heterogenous agricultural terrain. More insight will be gained by the LAFI field campaign, which will be performed from Spring to Autumn 2025 at the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Observatory (LAFO) of the University of Hohenheim. The LAFI field campaign will enhance the current sensor synergy at LAFO, in order to capture key variables more fully within the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere compartments (Späth et al. 2023). Highlights of the new LAFI instrumentation include water-vapour isotope sensors, sap-flow sensors, fiber-optical distributed sensors (FODS, Thomas and Selker, 2021),unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and scanning water-vapor, temperature, and wind lidar systems. We demonstrate how these measurements complement each other to gain new insights into flux-driver relationships, soil evaporation, crop transpiration, and entrainment, as well as the impact of land-surface heterogeneities and dispersive fluxes on the EBC. The very first results of this campaign will also be presented. 

 

References: 

Abramowitz et al. 2024: https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/21/5517/2024 

Späth et al. 2023: https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-12-25-2023 

Thomas, C.K., Selker, J.S., 2021. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52171-4_20 

Wulfmeyer et al. 2023: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10546-022-00761-2  

 

How to cite: Wulfmeyer, V.: The Land-Atmosphere Feedback Initiative (LAFI): Field observations, modeling approaches, and first results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19157, 2025.

EGU25-19174 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

Evaluation of CO2 and energy balance fluxes from a maize canopy in east Tennessee using the SURFATM model 

Taqi Raza, Erwan Personne, Nebila Lichiheb, Neal Eash, and Joel Oetting

Field crops can emit or store carbon depending on the season and cropping practices. A process-based modeling approach allowed us to predict the transfer pattern of the CO2 fluxes and energy balance between soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. In this study, the SURFATM-CO2 model was developed to simulate distinctly the CO2 exchanges between soil, plants, and the atmosphere. The model couples soil respiration, taking into account its temperature sensitivity, with photosynthesis and plant respiration process-based, taking into account the plant's CO2 compensation point. The SURFATM-CO2 process model was evaluated using field measurements obtained from a novel multiport profile system consisting of 4 vertical measurement heights to monitor the spatial and temporal variation of CO2, water, and temperature within and above the maize canopy in east Tennessee. The 5Hz frequency raw data were averaged into 15-minute runs and used as input for the SURFATM model. The model satisfactorily simulates the energy balance, and we are currently testing the model for the CO2 fluxes.  The main objective of this study is to understand the exchanges of CO2 between the soil, vegetation and atmosphere compartments. The finding of the SURFATM-CO2 model will highlight the ability of the SURFATM-model to capture the canopy-atmosphere interaction as well as provide a base for model application in the studies of carbon dynamics, and cropland ecosystem management.

How to cite: Raza, T., Personne, E., Lichiheb, N., Eash, N., and Oetting, J.: Evaluation of CO2 and energy balance fluxes from a maize canopy in east Tennessee using the SURFATM model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19174, 2025.

EGU25-20222 | ECS | Posters on site | AS2.3

 Assessing the discrepancy of energy fluxes over spring wheat under sloping topography conditionsbased on eddy covariance measurements 

Jingyu Yao, Zhongming Gao, Lei Li, Eric Russell, Shelley Pressley, and Yongjiu Dai

Accurately quantifying surface energy budgets in croplands is essential for efficient water resource allocation and sustainable agricultural practices. However, the representativeness of eddy covariance (EC) measurements in hilly agricultural fields remains less examined. In this study, we conducted an experiment employing three EC flux towers to assess the consistency of surface energy budget components across a hilly agricultural field (~90 acres). The experimental field was divided into three zones, each equipped with an EC tower positioned at its central location to ensure that 90% of the flux footprint fell within the corresponding zone (i.e., US-SZ1, US-SZ2 and US-SZ3). The meteorological conditions and energy fluxes were found to be significantly influenced by various agricultural activities, including both growing and non-growing periods, as well as cropland management practices. Despite relatively similar meteorological conditions observed across the three sites during the wheat growing period (WGP), substantial discrepancies were evident in the primary energy budget components, with the exception of net radiation, at both diurnal and seasonal scales. During WGP, the sensible, latent, and ground heat fluxes exhibited differences within 10%, 27%, and 29%, respectively, leading toconsiderable disparities in the energy balance closure. The closure ratios (CRs) for US-SZ1, US-SZ2, and US-SZ3 were approximately 93%, 84%, and 85% respectively. The influence of environmental variables on the discrepancies in their CRs were also investigated. The relationships between CRs and friction velocity, atmospheric stability, turbulent kinetic energy, as well as heat transport efficiency exhibited certain distinctions among the three sites. Our findings indicate that factors like site elevation, topography, and measurement uncertainty differentially affect energy flux components in sloping landscapes. Employing multiple tower/point measurements is crucial for reducing uncertainties in energy flux estimates under sloping terrain conditions.

How to cite: Yao, J., Gao, Z., Li, L., Russell, E., Pressley, S., and Dai, Y.:  Assessing the discrepancy of energy fluxes over spring wheat under sloping topography conditionsbased on eddy covariance measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20222, 2025.

EGU25-1244 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Riparian zone heterogeneity influences the production and fate of biodegradable dissolved organic carbon across land-water interfaces  

Melissa Reidy, Martin Berggren, Anna Lupon, Hjalmar Laudon, and Ryan Sponseller

Transport of biodegradable organic carbon (bDOC) across land-water interfaces supports the ecological and biogeochemical functioning of northern freshwater ecosystems. Yet, we know little about how the generation and supply of terrestrial bDOC to boreal headwaters is regulated by the physical, biological, and hydrological properties of the riparian interface. We used 7-, 14- and 28- day bDOC incubations on eight occasions during the northern growing season to assess how terrestrial and aquatic bDOC concentrations differ along flowpaths connecting riparian soils to a headwater stream. We found that bDOC quantity declined along the transition from land to water, and that riparian soils had higher concentrations of bDOC compared to aquatic landscape components. Additionally, these differences corresponded to changes in the optical and chemical properties of the dissolved organic matter pool. Further, the generation of bDOC in riparian soils varied across interface types and reflected hydrogeomorphically determined differences in soil organic matter storage, groundwater level dynamics and soil microbial activity. In particular, the potential transfer of bDOC from soils to groundwater appeared largely regulated by the degree of contact between soils and lateral subsurface flowpaths. Riparian interfaces with near-constant opportunity to deliver resources laterally to streams by shallow, preferential groundwater flowpaths were found to have a relatively poor capacity to generate bDOC within local soils. At the same time, groundwater within these same interfaces had higher concentrations of bulk DOC and bDOC, likely due to connections with larger contributing hillslopes which serve as important support systems to streams during baseflow periods. Collectively, our results show that boreal headwaters are comprised of a continuum of interface types that differ in capacity to generate bDOC in near-stream soils, and in opportunity to mobilize and convey bDOC laterally. Ultimately this leads to wider variability in when and where within the broader stream network these inputs may be most important to aquatic ecosystems.

How to cite: Reidy, M., Berggren, M., Lupon, A., Laudon, H., and Sponseller, R.: Riparian zone heterogeneity influences the production and fate of biodegradable dissolved organic carbon across land-water interfaces , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1244, 2025.

EGU25-1459 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Role of natural organic matter and iron(III) for methanogenesis and methane oxidation in thawing permafrost soils 

Eva Voggenreiter, Edgardo Valenzuela, Sigrid van Grinsven, and Andreas Kappler

Permafrost soils store about twice as much organic carbon as the atmosphere. In the future, certain permafrost regions will develop anoxic soil conditions due to thaw-induced soil subsidence and waterlogging. Under these conditions, methane (CH4) emissions due to decomposition of newly thawed organic carbon will likely increase. The net release of CH4 from soil depends on the availability of more energetically favorable electron acceptors than CO2, which could on the one hand suppress methanogenesis and on the other hand act as an electron acceptor for anaerobic CH4 oxidation. Since many common inorganic electron acceptors (sulfate, nitrate) are present only in low concentrations in permafrost soils, we hypothesize that natural organic matter (NOM) and/or ferric iron (Fe(III)) are more abundant and can act as significant electron acceptors. However, to which extent NOM fractions such as dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) as well as Fe(III) minerals influence methane production and methane oxidation in permafrost soils is unknown. In this project, we therefore aim (i) to characterize the redox-active moieties of DOM and POM fractions from permafrost soils, (ii) to quantify the effect of these NOM fractions on methanogenesis suppression and/or CH4 oxidation, and (iii) to identify the microorganisms that are able to oxidize CH4 coupled to NOM or Fe(III) reduction by performing enrichment culture experiments. To achieve this, we collected and isolated NOM from a thawing permafrost peatland in Sweden (Stordalen Mire, Abisko) across multiple thaw stages. We analyzed the changes in electron accepting and donating capacity of NOM fractions across permafrost thaw stages via mediated electrochemical reduction and oxidation, respectively. Enrichments targeting anaerobic CH4-oxidizers were set up using an inoculum from partly thawed and fully thawed permafrost thaw stages, amended with poorly crystalline Fe(III) minerals, AQDS (a model compound for redox-active moieties in NOM) and POM. In the future, microcosm experiments with isolated NOM fractions and 13C-labeled CH4 or 13C-labeled CO2 will be performed in order to quantify the influence of NOM on methane oxidation or methanogenesis suppression, respectively. Spectroscopic, isotope-tracing and molecular biology techniques will be used to track the reduction of amended electron acceptors, concentration of labeled gases and the change in abundance of targeted microorganisms. Overall, this work will help to assess the role of NOM and Fe(III) in influencing CH4 cycling in thawing permafrost peatlands.

How to cite: Voggenreiter, E., Valenzuela, E., van Grinsven, S., and Kappler, A.: Role of natural organic matter and iron(III) for methanogenesis and methane oxidation in thawing permafrost soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1459, 2025.

In my talk, I propose that stoichiometric imbalances between microbial metabolic needs and carbon (C) : nitrogen (N) : phosphorus (P) ratios affect reactive macronutrient flows between ecosystems and in landscapes, much like how stoichiometric imbalances of macronutrients affect organism growth and nutrient cycling at smaller scales. More specifically, I hypothesize that the mismatch between microbial C : N : P ratios and biologically reactive macronutrient ratios modulates macronutrient retention and export. When microbial C : N : P matches nutrient availability, reactive macronutrients should be retained or transformed, reducing downstream transport. Conversely, stoichiometric imbalances between microbial C : N : P and reactive macronutrient C : N : P lead to excess reactive macronutrients being exported to downstream ecosystems

These stoichiometric imbalances are strongly modified by dissolved organic matter (DOM) quantity and especially by DOM composition, which defines the microbial reactivity of DOM. With laboratory microcosm and stream mesocosm experiments, colleagues and myself provide first mechanistic evidence for the importance of DOM composition for the stoichiometric modification of macronutrient flows. Furthermore, comparing global published C : N : P data from soils, lakes, and marine ecosystems, we find evidence that microbial activity uniformly modulates reactive DOM and macronutrient ratios across environments, affecting macronutrient cycling and flows, with probable secondary effects on ecosystem functioning and eutrophication. 

The proposed concept links small-scale mechanistic understanding to ecosystem-scale patterns of macronutrient cycling in inland-water ecosystem networks. This cross-scale perspective highlights the need for integrated stoichiometric experimental and monitoring research to better understand reactive macronutrient cycling and flows, with high potential for improved macronutrient management.

How to cite: Graeber, D.: Dissolved organic matter composition may be a key modifier of ecosystem-scale macronutrient reactivity and flows across the terrestrial - aquatic continuum, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1926, 2025.

EGU25-5582 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

How do vertical and topographic riparian soil moisture patterns shape headwater dissolved organic carbon dynamics? 

Paul D. Burkhardt, Andreas Musolff, and José L. J. Ledesma

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a fundamental role for the aquatic ecosystem and the global carbon cycle. It also interferes with drinking water treatment processes. Its removal is costly and depends on its quantity and quality, i.e. its concentration and molecular composition. Riverine DOC concentrations have increased in Europe and North America in recent decades, primarily driven by reductions in acid deposition. Currently, changing climatic conditions such as increasing temperatures, heavy rainfall events and droughts are gaining importance in determining DOC concentrations. However, the specific mechanisms by which climate variability drives riverine DOC concentrations and its chemical composition at different time scales are not sufficiently understood. Therefore, reliable forecast about future developments are challenging. In forested headwater catchments, where riparian soils are major sources of DOC export, riparian soil moisture might be paramount to determine DOC quantity and quality. Soil moisture is driven by climate variability and controls subordinate and interdependent processes that can shape DOC quantity and quality. However, limited data of soil moisture from forested headwaters and specifically from their riparian zones are available. In this context, we will study the upper Rappbode catchment in the Harz mountains, which drains into Germany’s largest drinking water reservoir. We will relate high-frequency soil moisture observations at multiple depths (vertical dimension) at different riparian profiles with differing wetness characteristics (topographic dimension) to the corresponding DOC quantity and quality over temporal scales, including short-term, seasonal/annual, and long-term by modeling. We hypothesize that currently and in future patterns of soil moisture in the vertical and topographic dimension play a pivotal role as drivers of the temporal dynamics of DOC quantity and quality in riparian soils and subsequently in the corresponding surface waters. Initial results from our sampling campaigns highlight differences in riparian soil water chemistry between the locations of different wetness characteristics, but also distinct vertical heterogeneities. We will present further findings and results that improve the understanding of how soil moisture drives riverine DOC quantity and quality, with special consideration of vertical heterogeneities in the riparian profiles.  With a refined understanding of DOC dynamics, more reliable forecasts can be made to derive targeted adaptation strategies for safe drinking water supplies and to better assess future impacts on aquatic ecosystems and the global carbon cycle.

How to cite: Burkhardt, P. D., Musolff, A., and Ledesma, J. L. J.: How do vertical and topographic riparian soil moisture patterns shape headwater dissolved organic carbon dynamics?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5582, 2025.

EGU25-5834 | Posters on site | BG1.6

Carbon removal mechanisms and microbial dynamics in constructed wetlands of differing depths 

Johanna Sjöstedt, Kevin Jones, Jasmin Borgert, and Antonia Liess

Climate change has intensified the mobility of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from land into aquatic ecosystems leading to increased brownification and hypoxia. Constructed wetlands (CWs) offer a potential mitigation strategy but optimal wetland design with respect to DOM removal remains underexplored. This study examined how depth and water residence time (WRT) affect DOM processing in experimental CWs during summer and fall. Organic matter was added to mimic brownification, and DOM changes were tracked using fluorescence spectroscopy and microbial activity measurements. A key finding was that labile DOM degrades rapidly within the first two days. At longer WRT shallow CWs released terrestrial-like fractions potentially increasing downstream brownification, while deep CWs showed sustained DOM degradation and slower internal production, potentially reducing downstream brownification. Based on spectral ratios it was found that microbial processes dominated DOM degradation, although photodegradation played a significant role during summer. Strong correlations between bacterial processes and DOM composition, highlight the critical role of labile carbon in driving microbial activity. Bacterial production correlated strongly with labile DOM fractions (Peaks T and M), while bacterial respiration, correlated with both labile and humic-like DOM fractions. Our results suggest that CWs can be optimized as tools for mitigating climate change impacts and improving water quality, ensuring long-term ecological sustainability. In addition, our findings advocate for integrating shallow and deep systems in series to maximize carbon removal, minimize brownification, and adapt to seasonal variability.

How to cite: Sjöstedt, J., Jones, K., Borgert, J., and Liess, A.: Carbon removal mechanisms and microbial dynamics in constructed wetlands of differing depths, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5834, 2025.

EGU25-6561 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Climate-change impacts on dissolved organic matter in glacier-fed streams 

Jingyi Hou, Hannes Peter, Nicola Deluigi, Oriana LIanos-Paez, and Tom Battin

Mountain glaciers are vanishing worldwide because of climate change, triggering cascading downstream effects. Today, glaciers are recognized as stores of dissolved organic matter (DOM), which once released, can support the microbial metabolism and food webs in glacier-fed streams. This glacier-derived DOM is often reported to be ancient and highly bioavailable. However, our understanding of how such DOM may change in the future, as mountain glaciers continue to melt, remains limited.

We aimed to determine whether the quantity and quality of DOM in glacier-fed streams are shifting as glaciers retreat. Leveraging DOM data from the Vanishing Glaciers project and using a space-for-time substitution approach, we investigated how both DOM quantity and quality may change across a wide range of glacier-fed streams worldwide. We analyzed optical properties of DOM sampled as close to the glacier snout as possible in 181 glacier-fed streams draining the world’s major mountain ranges. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in these streams were very low (median: 146.3 ppb, interquartile range (IQR): 99.4-211.7 ppb). Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) identified six major DOM components, highlighting a dominance of proteinaceous compounds in the glacier-fed streams. Furthermore, by integrating additional optical measures, such as fluorescence (median: 1.5, IQR: 1.3-1.7), humification (median: 0.4, IQR: 0.2-0.5) and biological (median: 1.6, IQR: 1-2.3) indices, we will characterize DOM composition and potential sources. These data will be compared to glacier coverage, stream water stable isotopes, major ions, the mineralogical composition of suspended sediments and benthic chlorophyll a. Our unique large-scale dataset allows us to improve current understanding of DOM dynamics and related carbon cycling in glacier-fed aquatic ecosystems, which are now changing at an unprecedented pace because of climate change.

How to cite: Hou, J., Peter, H., Deluigi, N., LIanos-Paez, O., and Battin, T.: Climate-change impacts on dissolved organic matter in glacier-fed streams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6561, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6561, 2025.

Land use is a primary driver of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) and significantly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle. This study used the SWAT-C model to simulate the export of SOC, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Wu River Basin, analyzing the effects of land use on SOC spatial distribution. Model calibration with 2012–2017 total organic carbon (TOC) data achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values above 0.7, confirming reliability. The simulated results showed an average annual TOC export of 17.3 kgC/ha, with DOC and POC contributing 10.38 kgC/ha and 6.9 kgC/ha, respectively. Bare land had the highest POC export (66.7 kgC/ha), followed by dry cropland (32.3 kgC/ha), while urban areas and coniferous forests exhibited the highest DOC exports (15.1 and 12.4 kgC/ha, respectively). SOC storage was highest in rice field (313 tonC/ha) and lowest in bare land (175 tonC/ha). Sub-watersheds dominated by bare land and dry cropland recorded TOC exports exceeding 21 kgC/ha, marking them as future SOC export hotspots. These findings highlight the significant influence of land use on SOC distribution and provide a scientific basis for ecosystem service preservation, and sustainable watershed management.

Key words: Soil organic carbon, SOC storage, SWAT-C model, land use, Taiwan

How to cite: Lin, G.-Z. and Chiang, L.-C.: Evaluating the impact of land use on soil organic carbon spatial distribution by SWAT-C model – a case study of the Wu River Basin, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7919, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7919, 2025.

EGU25-8762 | Orals | BG1.6

Does DOM composition help explain bioavailable macronutrient concentrations in organic matter-rich freshwaters? 

Martin Berggren, Mayra P. D. Rulli, Ann-Kristin Bergström, Ryan A. Sponseller, and Geert Hensgens

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a major source of macronutrients in freshwaters, yet has variable and poorly understood bioavailability to bacteria and other organisms. Because intrinsic variation in bioavailability is caused by chemical structures of organic nutrients, DOM composition data should improve predictions of bioavailable resource pool sizes. We hypothesized that bioavailable organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fractions are made up of freshly produced humic- and protein-like DOM, respectively, whereas bioavailable phosphorus (P) is linked to microbially-derived DOM with potential organophosphate content and/or to chemical structures associated with DOM-Fe-phosphate complexes. These ideas were tested in eight, unproductive and organic matter-rich stream and lake sites, where we performed C, N and P bioassays with bacteria in combination with analyses of DOM composition using fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM) analysis. Bioavailable C followed the predicted patterns, with strong links to fluorescent features indicating recently produced DOM. Surprisingly, bioavailable N was poorly related to DOM composition, including protein-like fluorescence, and was instead driven mainly by the amount of inorganic N. Bioavailable P was best linked to microbially-derived organic components. The standard nutrient variables explaining most of the bioavailable total dissolved C, N and P, respectively, were dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic nitrogen and total phosphorus. In addition, DOM composition variables made significant unique contributions to explaining the variance in bioavailable C (19%), N (13%) and P (18%). Overall, DOM composition analysis is a promising tool to improve prediction and develop our understanding of bioavailable macronutrients in organic matter-rich freshwaters.

How to cite: Berggren, M., Rulli, M. P. D., Bergström, A.-K., Sponseller, R. A., and Hensgens, G.: Does DOM composition help explain bioavailable macronutrient concentrations in organic matter-rich freshwaters?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8762, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8762, 2025.

EGU25-9125 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Modelling Total Organic Nitrogen Concentrations in Danish Streams using Machine Learning 

Rasmus R. Frederiksen, Søren E. Larsen, and Brian Kronvang

Total organic nitrogen (TON) constitutes almost 20% of the total nitrogen (TN) riverine loadings to Danish coastal waters. Thus, knowledge about the TON concentrations in streams and its spatial variation is essential to accurately assess the importance of TON for TN loadings to coastal waters and thereby achieving a more precise basis for calculation of the sources of TON in catchments.

We used environmental monitoring data from 390 stream stations across Denmark for the period 2018-2021to calculate indirectly measured annual and seasonal average TON concentrations (~1,500 samples) along with a wide range of predictor variables. TON samples showed a mean annual TON concentration in Danish streams amounting to 0.70 mg L-1 with a standard deviation of 0.31 mg L-1 and revealed a relatively high spatial variability.

We trained a machine learning model to learn spatial and temporal patterns in our TON data set for prediction of spatially distributed annual and seasonal average TON concentrations in Danish streams in ungauged basins. Furthermore, we utilized quantile regression to estimate the uncertainty on model predictions, and we utilized quantile regression in combination with the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach to investigate how the importance and influence of predictor variables vary across TON’s entire distribution.

The annual TON concentration is modelled with a root-mean-squared error of 0.20 mg L-1. The new national annual average TON concentration model is largely driven by the mean elevation (negative), the percentage of agricultural land (positive), the percentage of tile drained areas (positive), and the percentage of lakes (positive).

The predicted annual average TON concentrations were generally higher than the measured average annual TON concentrations, with an overall mean of 0.84 mg L-1, probably because catchments in the training data generally had higher mean elevations (DEM) than the prediction catchments as many ungauged catchments are located near the coast

The developed model and national TON maps contribute to our understanding of annual TON concentrations in streams supporting national-scale land-use and water management.

How to cite: R. Frederiksen, R., E. Larsen, S., and Kronvang, B.: Modelling Total Organic Nitrogen Concentrations in Danish Streams using Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9125, 2025.

It is generally known that one of the important objectives of EU countries is to improve the quality of water in water bodies.  The quality of the water in the Gulf of Tallinn is poor. Nitrogen and phosphorus compounds in coastal water and stormwater discharges have been studied, but very little is known about the role of dissolved organic matter, chemical properties and relationship with pollutants. It is important to be aware of the role of carbon compounds as nutrients, the high content and inflows into the coastal sea can lead to the proliferation of algae and bacteria, the reduction of dissolved oxygen in water, etc. The impact of algae on the water quality in the Tallinn Bay is a significant problem and can also worsen the water quality of Pirita beach. The main concern of bad water quality has been considered eutrophication, which causes algal bloom near coastline of Tallinn Bay.   

In recent years, stormwaters from Tallinn are believed to be the main cause of high nutrient levels. In present study the intention was to investigate different factors by measuring the concentrations of organic carbon, total, inorganic and organic phosphorus and nitrates in different locations of the coastal seawater. The concentrations of phosphorus and nitrate were determined by spectrophotometry, organic carbon by HPLC.  Detailed characterization of dissolved organic matter was carried out in order to identify sources of organic matter that has entered the water. As a result, it should become clear whether, in addition to the study of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds in coastal water, it would be expedient and necessary to monitor and characterize natural organic matter.

The aims of present study were:  to determine the organic carbon, phosphorus and nitrate in coastal seawater near the stormwater discharge outlets; to investigate the climatic factors (rainfall, temperature), and freshwater inflow (River Pirita); to compare the results with average nutrient levels in the Gulf of Finland; to assess the condition of Tallinn Bay according to legislation.

The study results indicated that nutrient levels in the coastal seawater of the Tallinn Bay area were remarkably higher than average nutrient levels in the Gulf of Finland. According to legislation, the status class of Tallinn Bay is mainly poor, based on total phosphorus data and bad or even worse, based on nitrate data. Stormwaters did not increase nitrate and total phosphorus contents substantially and they mainly affected total phosphorus concentrations near the discharge outlets. River Pirita was identified as the major source of nitrates, but not of phosphorus. Further studies are required to obtain a complete picture about nutrient flows to Tallinn Bay.

How to cite: Lepane, V.: The coastal seawater quality evaluation based on organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus data of Tallinn Bay, Estonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10057, 2025.

EGU25-11554 | Orals | BG1.6

Impact of agriculture and water paths on organic nitrogen loss to Danish headwater streams 

Brian Kronvang, Rasmus J. Petersen, Jonas Rolighed, Mette Thorsen, Rasmus R. Frederiksen, Søren E. Larsen, Anne Hasselholt, Birgitte Hansen, Hyojin Kim, Tobias Goldhammer, Daniel Graeber, and Dominik Zak

 

Worldwide, farming activities exert strong impacts on the amount and molecular composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM), which constitutes an important vector of organic nitrogen (ON) transport from soils to the aquatic environment (Graeber et al., 2015). However, there are major knowledge gaps on the drivers of ON loss to water courses. In Denmark, stream data from the Danish national monitoring program (NOVANA) shows that total ON currently accounts for nearly 20 % of the annual total N loading to Danish coastal waters. In a recently initiated research project ‘orgANiC’ we are investigating the loss and fate of ON forms in five smaller agricultural catchments across Denmark (Petersen et al., 2021).

We are measuring dissolved ON (DON) and particulate ON as well as dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) in various source waters (soil water and groundwater), pathways (tile drains and surface runoff), and receiving streams using a comprehensive array of sampling technologies. In soil water we utilize suction cups taking weekly composite water samples, in groundwater we sample from near-surface (app. 1-5 m below surface) screens in boreholes using the Montejus principle, and in tile drains, surface runoff from fields and streams we are taking both grab samples and automated ISCO samples. These are activated when the hydrograph levels and hydrograph gradients exceed certain thresholds, determined from analysis of the long-term hydrograph data.

We are performing both indirect (total N minus inorganic N) and direct analysis of DON (size exclusion chromatography) on water samples from the different hydrological compartments. The loss of particulate ON (PON) is also monitored in tile drainage water, surface runoff and streams as these three hydrological paths are believed to be of increasing importance with the observed increase in extreme weather conditions. In the presentation we will share our current insights into the challenges of indirect DON measurements across different hydrological pathways by comparing it with direct measurements of DON and PON. We will also demonstrate how the concentrations and composition of ON fractions vary across the agricultural catchments under investigation as they represent different soil types, climate conditions and agricultural management (crops, fertilization, etc.).

 

References

Graeber, D., I. G. Boëchat, F. Encina-Montoya, and others. 2015. Global effects of agriculture on fluvial dissolved organic matter. Scientific Reports 5: 16328. doi:10.1038/srep16328.

Petersen, RJ, Blicher-Mathiesen, G, Rolighed, J, Andersen, HE & Kronvang, B 2021, 'Three decades of regulation of agricultural nitrogen losses: Experiences from the Danish Agricultural Monitoring Program', Science of the total Environment 787: 147619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147619

 

 

 

 

 

How to cite: Kronvang, B., Petersen, R. J., Rolighed, J., Thorsen, M., Frederiksen, R. R., Larsen, S. E., Hasselholt, A., Hansen, B., Kim, H., Goldhammer, T., Graeber, D., and Zak, D.: Impact of agriculture and water paths on organic nitrogen loss to Danish headwater streams, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11554, 2025.

EGU25-12105 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Low-Intensity Surface Fires and Dissolved Organic Matter: Unraveling Post-Fire Carbon Dynamics in Northern European Boreal Forest Soils 

Mathilde Rebiffé, Lukas Kohl, Egle Köster, Markku Keinänen, Frank Berninger, and Kajar Köster

Recent studies highlight a concerning reality: wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, particularly in northern high-latitude regions where temperatures are rising fastest. Boreal forests, vital carbon (C) reservoirs, play a key role in long-term C storage and climate regulation. However, climate change-driven increases in wildfire frequency, intensity, and severity threaten to turn these soils from C sinks into sources, disrupting soil biogeochemical cycles and hindering forest recovery and ecosystem resilience. Fire significantly alters soil organic matter (SOM) and C cycling processes, particularly impacting soil dissolved organic matter (DOM). In boreal forests of Northern Europe, low-intensity surface fires are common, but their short-term effects on soil DOM dynamics remain poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the short-term effects of a low-intensity surface fire on post-fire DOM properties and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content in boreal forest soils.
Fieldwork was conducted in a dry Scots pine boreal forest of Eastern Finland (Ruunaa, North Karelia) that underwent a prescribed restoration fire on June 30th, 2022. The burning resulted in a non-stand replacing surface fire of low intensity and severity. To capture short-term post-fire responses, we compared DOC content, δ¹³CDOC, and DOM absorbance properties in soil water and throughfall collected from burned and unburned control plots during the first growing season following the burning (from July to October 2022). DOM was analyzed for changes in concentration and isotope composition with a coupled elemental analyzer and mass spectrometer (EA-IRMS), while changes in DOM chemical composition were characterized using UV-visible absorbance spectrophotometry.
Our results indicated that soil DOC contents declined immediately after the fire in burned plots compared to control ones, accompanied by slight enrichment of burned soils DOM in ¹³C. These findings suggest reduced availability of labile C substrates following SOM and biomass combustion, fire-induced reduction of the microbial biomass, and introduction of newly formed pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which has a lower proportion of lignin-derived ¹³C. Additionally, the soil DOM from burned soils showed slightly higher degrees of aromaticity and molecular weights, indicating a shift towards more aromatic and recalcitrant compounds, suggesting the presence of a more stable C pool in the soil water of fire-affected soils.
Our findings emphasize the crucial role of low-intensity surface fires in influencing DOM dynamics and provide vital insights for understanding the post-fire soil C cycling and ecosystem recovery in boreal forests of Northern Europe. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving C balance models in these forests and equipping policymakers and forest managers with the tools needed to enhance resilience in one of the planet’s most vital ecosystems.

How to cite: Rebiffé, M., Kohl, L., Köster, E., Keinänen, M., Berninger, F., and Köster, K.: Low-Intensity Surface Fires and Dissolved Organic Matter: Unraveling Post-Fire Carbon Dynamics in Northern European Boreal Forest Soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12105, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12105, 2025.

EGU25-12124 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Long-term manuring of soil results in divergent responses of dissolved and particulate organic matter on the molecular level 

Carsten Simon, Konstantin Stumpf, Klaus Kaiser, Marcel Lorenz, Thomas Maskow, Anja Miltner, Ines Mulder, Sören Thiele-Bruhn, and Oliver Lechtenfeld

Manure addition increases amounts of soil organic matter (SOM), water-extractable organic matter (WEOM), microbial biomass, and microbial activity. Mass balances have shown that soil organic C build-up is paralleled by a comparatively low retention of the added manure C, which also declines substantially with time. The implications for SOM’s molecular composition are not fully understood, but imply transformation of manure-derived organic matter as a main driver of C accumulation. We studied four long-term manured soils (24-118 years) to unravel potential mechanisms of manure turnover and SOC build-up on the molecular level. Soils were sampled a year after the last manure application.

Bulk SOM and manure were studied directly via solid-state laser desorption ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (LDI-FT-ICR-MS). The LDI-FT-ICR-MS results indicated that manure increased SOM's energetic potential by +0.9 ± 0.2 kJ/mol C (1.5 ± 0.4%), and this trend was confirmed by bulk elemental analysis (+5.4 ± 2.8 kJ/mol C; 12.6 ± 6.5%).  The addition of manure changed the composition of SOM components corresponding to 3–16 % of the total ion abundance compared to the controls, with the higher proportions found in longer running field trials. However, marker compounds directly related to manure explained only 2–12% of the molecular changes, while markers unrelated to the original manure signatures explained 67–84%. Long-term manure addition resulted in increased saturation, oxidation, and molecular weight, and decreased aromaticity of SOM as compared to unfertilized soils. Accumulated molecules had a higher energetic potential and, despite being chemically similar to the original manure, a higher mass, suggesting that manure-derived building blocks were used for the microbial synthesis of larger molecules. Molecules with lower energetic potential disappeared in manured soil samples, mirrored by a higher oxidation state of WEOM. Consequently, we also found higher water-extractable organic C yields (normalized to soil organic C) in manured samples.

To reveal potential sources of these oxidized compounds, WEOM was studied by liquid-state FT-ICR-MS coupled with liquid chromatography, and compared to representative necromass extracts (plant, fungal, bacterial). Our results indicated a clear shift towards a more bioavailable, complex, necromass-dominated but oxidized WEOM fraction in manured soils. This finding markedly differs from the tendency towards more strongly reduced SOM, which was determined by solid-state measurements. The overlap with necromass FT-ICR-MS signatures suggested a dominant bacterial control of the changes in WEOM properties and also resulted in a stronger imprint of oxidized plant markers. Yet, the dominant fraction (83% of ion abundance) explaining the shift in oxidation state was not associated to any necromass type. This indicates an oxidation of the existing SOM reserves (“priming”).

Together, the combination of solid- and liquid-state FT-ICR-MS techniques provided complementary insight, demonstrating how manure addition affects the long-term SOC balance mirrored by SOM and WEOM composition. The comparison with potential endmembers (necromass extracts, manure) provided valuable insight into pathways of SOM turnover and will allow to identify novel process markers for future studies.

How to cite: Simon, C., Stumpf, K., Kaiser, K., Lorenz, M., Maskow, T., Miltner, A., Mulder, I., Thiele-Bruhn, S., and Lechtenfeld, O.: Long-term manuring of soil results in divergent responses of dissolved and particulate organic matter on the molecular level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12124, 2025.

EGU25-12453 | Orals | BG1.6

The role of dissolved organic carbon for the export of iron from catchments 

Stefan Peiffer, Luisa Hopp, Angelika Kölbl, Burkhard Beudert, and Oliver Lechtenfeld

Export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from catchments to streams has increased in the last decades in many catchments across the Northern hemisphere. Mobilisation of DOC from riparian soils and wetlands is highly dependent on discharge and is triggered by storm events. In many cases a very strong correlation between DOC and Fe concentrations during storm events can be observed in the streams suggesting joint source areas and mobilisation mechanisms. In this contribution we will discuss causes and mechanisms of Fe transfer from catchments into aquatic systems. Analyses of Fe species from a 40-years sample archive from the Große Ohe Catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park indicated that between 60 and 100 % of the dissolved Fe determined were in the reduced form Fe(II). Thus, a substantial amount of redox equivalents will thus be exported from catchments, and the implications for e.g. the oxygen budget of streams will be discussed.

How to cite: Peiffer, S., Hopp, L., Kölbl, A., Beudert, B., and Lechtenfeld, O.: The role of dissolved organic carbon for the export of iron from catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12453, 2025.

EGU25-12630 | Orals | BG1.6

Mineral associated organic matter in practice 

Mark Smits

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a vital role in most soil functions related to agriculture. It is a building block of soil structure, it buffers pH and nutrient availability, and it supports the soil food web. Up to now in agricultural practices, including agriculture labs, SOM has only been characterized as one pool. Recently, more attention has been on the fractionation into particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral associated matter (MAOM) in relation to SOM dynamics. MAOM will be the most stable pool of SOM and mineralization is probably dominated by rhizosphere processing, and therefore controlled by plant nutrient demand. Based on the idea that microbial biology plays a key role in both the formation and degradation of MAOM, we propose that adjusting agricultural management to optimize the build-up of MAOM is the way forward in minimizing nutrient losses to surface waters.

In this study we measured POM and MAOM, based on size fractionation, in pairs of agricultural plots with contrasting soil management. Furthermore we followed mineralization rate via continuous measurements of EC, moisture content and soil temperature, and based on ion-binding resin bags placed at 10, 30 and 60 cm depth.

Overall, texture is a strong predictor of the amount of MAOM, but on top the application of compost appears to have a positive effect, both on grass- and cropland. But we have indications that in some cases our MAOM fractions are dominated by fine POM, probably caused by the practice of incorporation of organic manure into the soil. Initial results show that nitrogen leaching is more associated with POM than with MAOM.

How to cite: Smits, M.: Mineral associated organic matter in practice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12630, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12630, 2025.

EGU25-12677 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Carbon Cycling in Estuarine Marshes: A Focus on DOC Stabilization and Mobilization Pathways 

Sharjeel Ashfaq, Friederike Neiske, Joscha N. Becker, and Annette Eschenbach

Coastal wetlands are vital to global carbon cycling because they can store large amounts of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC). These ecosystems are influenced by complex interactions between salinity, flooding frequency and vegetation, which affect the formation, stabilization and mobilization of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC). Stabilization mechanisms, including mineral association and aggregation, are critical for long-term SOC storage, with Mineral-Associated Organic Matter (MAOM) being the dominant mechanism. However, the mechanisms driving DOC mobilization in estuarine marshes, particularly spatial and seasonal variabilities and the effects of climate and vegetation, remain poorly understood.

This study addresses these gaps by examining how seasonal fluctuations driven by biotic factors impact DOC concentrations in marsh soils along salinity and flooding gradients. As a part of 12 months field study, pore-water samples are being collected monthly using suction cups in nine marsh zones along the Elbe Estuary, representing a salinity gradient (salt, brackish, and freshwater marshes) and flooding gradients (pioneer, low, and high zones) at depths of 10 cm and 30 cm. The collected samples are analyzed for Non-Purgeable Organic Carbon (NPOC), anions, and Iron (Fe) concentration. Preliminary results revealed that NPOC concentrations were consistently higher in salt marshes compared to brackish and freshwater marshes. Pioneer zones exhibited the highest NPOC concentrations, particularly at 30 cm depth, highlighting the interaction of site and elevation as key factors driving spatial variability. Seasonal trends showed elevated NPOC levels during summer, followed by declines in autumn, likely driven by increased organic matter decomposition during warmer periods. Our results indicate a negative correlation between NPOC and Fe concentrations, suggesting that redox-driven mechanisms, such as Fe reduction, play a critical role in DOC stability and release. In conclusion, DOC mobilization in the Elbe Estuary is strongly influenced by salinity and flooding gradients, with higher concentrations in salt marshes and during summer. Understanding DOC dynamics in tidal marshes is essential for predicting the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling within estuarine ecosystems. As global sea levels rise and salinity gradients shift, this research provides important baseline knowledge to inform strategies for protecting the carbon sinks of coastal wetlands.

How to cite: Ashfaq, S., Neiske, F., Becker, J. N., and Eschenbach, A.: Carbon Cycling in Estuarine Marshes: A Focus on DOC Stabilization and Mobilization Pathways, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12677, 2025.

EGU25-13097 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Bioavailability of dissolved organic carbon in Icelandic glacial streams changes seasonally and with distance from the glacier 

Ann-Kathrin Wild, Christina Fasching, Jonas Baum, and Peter Chifflard

Glaciers impact carbon cycling in downstream ecosystems by releasing diverse and bioavailable dissolved organic carbon (DOC). However, our understanding of organic carbon (OC) dynamics in Icelandic glaciers remains limited, as most studies have focused on other glacial regions and often lack seasonal-scale resolution.

In this study, we investigate the bioavailability of glacial OC from Icelandic streams using incubation experiments. We sampled Virkisá on a seasonal scale (a total of 72 incubation experiments) and supplemented these samples with additional data from the glacial streams Skaftafellsá, Svínafellsá, Kvíárjökull, and Fjallsá for comparison. In the glacial stream Virkisá, DOC concentrations were highest in spring at the onset of the melt season (0.18 ± 0.11 mg/L) and lowest in autumn (0.08 ± 0.02 mg/L). Notably, we observed not only seasonal variability in DOC concentrations but also in the bioavailability of glacial OC. At the glacier outlet, DOC bioavailability was consistently negative throughout the year (-18.18%), indicating DOC production during incubation experiments. Similarly, negative BDOC values (ranging from -1.44% to -24.1%) were confirmed in four other glacier-fed streams during summer, discharging from the ice cap Öræfajökull. However, further downstream, incubation experiments revealed seasonal shifts: negative bioavailable DOC (BDOC) values in spring (-18.04% at 900 m from the glacier outlet) and positive values in summer (55.55% at the same site), likely reflecting increased biological activity and DOC consumption during summer.

Overall, BDOC values showed a positive correlation with distance from the glacier. At the furthest sampling point, 3000 m from the glacier outlet, BDOC averaged +8.21% in spring and 57.02% in summer. These findings challenge previous reports of high glacial OC bioavailability and underscore the need for a more in-depth understanding of the chemical and biological processes in glacier-fed streams, particularly at a seasonal scale—a factor often neglected in studies due to the difficult accessibility of glaciers during winter.

How to cite: Wild, A.-K., Fasching, C., Baum, J., and Chifflard, P.: Bioavailability of dissolved organic carbon in Icelandic glacial streams changes seasonally and with distance from the glacier, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13097, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13097, 2025.

EGU25-13310 | Orals | BG1.6

Redox and pH driven mobilisation of dissolved organic carbon from boreal wetlands 

Benny Selle, Klaus-Holger Knorr, Fredrik Lidman, Anja Hortmann, Martin Škerlep, and Hjalmar Laudon

Boreal and subarctic wetland soils accumulated at least 550 Gt of organic carbon (OC) over the last 10,000 years, a large part of which is associated with Fe and Al (hydr)oxides as coprecipitates and via adsorption processes. Mobilisation of some of these pools via dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from soils to streams could be enhanced by reduction of ferric iron - triggered by rising water tables and oxygen depletion - via two distinct processes. Fe reduction can (i) directly release coprecipitated OC if iron (hydr)oxides are reductively dissolved and (ii) release OC by desorption from mineral surfaces if pH increases with Fe reduction, which is referred as to indirect (redox driven) mobilisation here. Both redox driven direct and indirect mobilisation likely occur under relatively wet and warm conditions such as during rewetting in the vegetation period. However, the relative importance of reductive dissolution of Fe-OC associations versus desorption of OC and its controlling factors are still unclear under field conditions as they were only investigated in the lab so far. Therefore, the relative importance of direct versus indirect mobilisation of OC and its controlling factors was studied for twelve catchments of the Krycklan research site in boreal Sweden. From long term monitoring data on stream discharges, DOC and Fe, molar DOC/Fe ratios of riparian soil waters released into the stream during rewetting of catchments in summer were computed using Generalised Additive Models. From these ratios, the relative importance of desorption for total DOC mobilisation via Fe reduction was calculated assuming a constant DOC/Fe ratio for direct mobilisation, i.e. the ratio at which OC and Fe occur in coprecipitates. DOC/Fe ratios were found to be positively correlated with average DOC concentrations in streams (coefficient of linear correlation of ρ = 0.78), and with the fraction of forest covered by spruce (ρ = 0.81). Higher reactive Fe/Al contents and hence larger mineral surfaces may be linked to spruce forest promoting intense weathering of soil’s primary minerals. Both high DOC in porewater (DOC in the stream as a proxy) and large mineral surfaces (spruce cover as a proxy) are required for desorption (indicated by relatively high DOC/ Fe ratios) to happen. If direct release of DOC with Fe reduction was accompanied by additional indirect mobilisation via a pH dependent desorption, up to twelve times more DOC was released for the same amount of Fe (hydr)oxides being reduced - compared to direct mobilisation via dissolution of iron (hydr)oxides alone. Mobilisation processes driven by Fe reduction and subsequent pH increase may intensify with climate change by enhanced drying and wetting cycles in boreal systems such as Krycklan.

How to cite: Selle, B., Knorr, K.-H., Lidman, F., Hortmann, A., Škerlep, M., and Laudon, H.: Redox and pH driven mobilisation of dissolved organic carbon from boreal wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13310, 2025.

From a limnological perspective, dissolved organic matter (DOM) can originate from allochthonous sources on the landscape or from autochthonous sources within the water body itself. In many streams and lakes, allochthonous organic materials contributing to the DOM are derived from terrestrial plants, plant litter, and soil organic material, which all include some products of microbial growth and decay. The many streams in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) provide an opportunity to understand the biogeochemistry of DOM derived solely from microbial phototrophs and heterotrophic bacteria because of the absence of plants on the barren landscape and the abundant perennial microbial mats in the stream channels. Analysis of the 20-year record of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the streams indicates that biogeochemical processes in microbial mats and the hyporheic zone support chemostasis for DOC in these streams. Even though the stream DOC concentrations are typically quite low, about 1 mg C/L or less, we were able to use fluorescence spectroscopy to chemically characterize the DOM samples from a broad array of meltwater streams.  Many streams had a distinct “humic-like” signature and some presence of an “amino-acid like” signature. In contrast,  a short dilute stream that does not support mats and primarily receives DOM from the surface of the glacier had an “amino-acid like” and only a weak “humic-like” fluorescence signature. The presence of a “humic-like” signature may indicate a source from organic matter pools in the hyporheic zone which accumulate due to advection of microbial mat material from the channel. Autochthonous organic matter pools may also influence DOC concentrations in temperate streams.  In addition, stream DOM may represent a labile DOM source to the lakes that contributes to supporting the mixotrophic phytoplankton communities.

How to cite: McKnight, D. and Zeglin, L.: Dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: varying chemical quality of microbially-derived DOM in glacial meltwater streams , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14768, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14768, 2025.

EGU25-15543 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Tracing the export of terrestrial biospheric carbon from source-to-sink through molecular 14C analyses in two large Alpine catchments 

Benedict Mittelbach, Davide Calvarese, Margaux Moreno Duborgel, Timo Rhyner, Stephan Wartenweiler, Margot White, Thomas Blattmann, Negar Haghipour, Martin Wessels, Nathalie Dubois, and Timothy Eglinton

The residence time of organic carbon (OC) in terrestrial reservoirs, particularly soils and freshwater systems, plays a crucial role in modulating the dynamics of the global carbon cycle. Radiocarbon (14C) is an invaluable tool for tracing the time since the biosynthesis of organic matter, enabling the quantification of carbon residence times in these terrestrial pools. While the majority of carbon fixed through terrestrial primary productivity rapidly returns to the atmosphere, a stabilized fraction of OC escapes (re-)mineralization. This OC may subsequently be exported from terrestrial ecosystems and buried in marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences over longer timescales, effectively sequestering atmospheric CO2.

Mineral association has been identified as a key mechanism of this stabilization. Consequently, source-specific biomarkers targeting terrestrial, mineral-associated OC are of particular interest for tracking especially resistant OC species. In our study, we apply compound-specific 14C analysis on leaf wax fatty acids (n-alkanoic acids). These long-chain fatty acids (C24+) are exclusively produced by vascular plants. Moreover, their highly hydrophobic nature promotes mineral association, making them ideal molecular markers of stabilized soil OC that can be traced through export and burial.

We employ a source-to-sink approach, targeting mineral soil profiles, fluvial sediment, and lake sediment within two Alpine sediment routing systems: the Alpine Rhine and Alpine Rhone catchments. Additionally, we analyze selected depths from well-dated deltaic sediment cores spanning the past 120 years to estimate catchment-averaged transit times of long-chain fatty acids and to assess temporal variability in these trends.

Initial results indicate significant pre-aging of OC in soil profiles, Δ14C from -100‰ to below -500‰, combined with rapid and efficient fluvial export of our target compounds. Sediment core data reveal millennial-scale catchment transit times for long-chain fatty acids. Further, they show the impact of anthropogenic disturbances, which have led to an increase in the age of exported soil OC across the investigated period.

How to cite: Mittelbach, B., Calvarese, D., Moreno Duborgel, M., Rhyner, T., Wartenweiler, S., White, M., Blattmann, T., Haghipour, N., Wessels, M., Dubois, N., and Eglinton, T.: Tracing the export of terrestrial biospheric carbon from source-to-sink through molecular 14C analyses in two large Alpine catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15543, 2025.

EGU25-15664 | Posters on site | BG1.6

Introduction to the project OrgCarbon: Organic carbon in rivers – characterization, origin, and degradability – first results from the Ems estuary 

Annika Fiskal, Steffen Amann, Anjela Vogel, Lorenzo Rovelli, Christine Borgsmüller, Georg Dierkes, Arne Wick, and Helmut Fischer

Organic carbon drives key processes in estuaries and rivers like (micro)biological production, oxygen consumption, transport of pollutants, and the flocculation/agglomeration of suspended particulate matter. The OrgCarbon project aims for an in‑depth characterization of organic carbon in field samples by using both established and innovative methods. Oxygen consumption, microbial respiration, potential for sorption of pollutants, origin and composition of the organic matter will be determined. By testing a variety of cross-disciplinary methods, we aim to develop a standardized protocol for studying organic carbon in estuaries and rivers. The goal is to develop an easy-to-use and cost-effective protocol that can be implemented in existing monitoring programs. As a result, knowledge about the origin and degradability of organic carbon and thus oxygen consumption rates could, in future, be determined routinely and included in water quality management.

First results from the highly turbid Ems Estuary show strong gradients in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total organic carbon (TOC) along the salinity gradient. TOC, but also the ratio of DOC to particulate organic carbon (POC), increases along the gradient from marine to freshwater. Spectroscopic measurements and absorption indices (e.g., SUVA254, SR, S275-295) provided first insights into organic carbon origin and composition and are easy to use and inexpensive. Additional analysis of microbial respiration and enzyme activity will provide information on organic carbon degradability and its role for the oxygen budget of rivers and estuaries.

How to cite: Fiskal, A., Amann, S., Vogel, A., Rovelli, L., Borgsmüller, C., Dierkes, G., Wick, A., and Fischer, H.: Introduction to the project OrgCarbon: Organic carbon in rivers – characterization, origin, and degradability – first results from the Ems estuary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15664, 2025.

Mobilisation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) links fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems via streams to the oceans. The increase in mobilisation that has been observed as a browning of headwaters during the last decades, resulted in ecosystem change of receiving waters and had implications for drinking water production and carbon storage. Riparian soils at the groundwater/ surface water interface are hotspots of biogeochemical transformations shaping water entering the streams. Preferential flow paths, where larger areas of the watershed drain through a distinct point to the stream, have been described as discrete riparian inflow points (DRIP). DRIPs have high watertables, mostly organic soils and strongly influence stream discharge and chemistry. They have been identified as major sources of DOC to streams, making them key areas for studying DOC mobilisation mechanisms. High watertables connect highly conductive and organic rich top soil layers to streams, but also influence redox conditions in the ground. If oxygen and nitrate availability decreases, ferric iron gets reduced and could release DOC previously bound to iron (oxy) hydroxides. Reduction processes consume protons and thus increase pH, in turn increasing solubility for negatively charged organics.

We hypothesized that redox induced mobilisation of DOC plays an important role especially after drying and rewetting cycles occuring after warm and dry summers with the onset of late summer rains. During snowmelt, we hypothesized redox induced mobilisation to be less important due to cold conditions and a large fraction of surficial flow paths. In this study, data from sampling campaigns in a small forested headwater stream with adjacent riparian wetlands (DRIPs) located in the Krycklan Catchment Study in boreal Sweden, conducted during snowmelt 2024 and two late summer seasons in 2023 and 2024, is presented. Samples were analysed for DOC quantity and quality, iron speciation and concentration, oxygen saturation and pH, among others. We show that stream- and groundwater have distinct chemical properties. The role of riparian soils as source areas of solutes differs between seasons with a more diluting effect during peak discharge at snowmelt and concentrations being transport limited in summer and autumn. In groundwater, DOC and iron are co-mobilised with higher concentrations under reducing conditions. Oxygen saturation changes with watertables depending on whether they exceed ground level, resulting in different effects of watertable changes depending on small scale topography. We find some indication of DOC mobilisation due to redox induced pH increase in some DRIPs especially during snowmelt. DOC concentrations are higher pre- and during early snowmelt in the stream, maybe due to release of older, more reduced groundwater before the diluting effect of freshly melted snow dominates.

In conclusion ground- and streamwater chemistry relate differently dependent on season. Small scale topography results in non-uniformal effects of elevated watertables and thus groundwater chemistry is to some degree site specific. However, iron and DOC are jointly mobilised especially under low oxygen availability. In spring water that might have been subject to reducing conditions in late autumn, might still be present in the groundwater and could be released early on during snowmelt.

How to cite: Hortmann, A., Knorr, K.-H., Selle, B., and Laudon, H.: Links of ground- and streamwater in discrete riparian inflow points in boreal Sweden – DOC mobilisation and the role of reducing conditions during snowmelt and summer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16430, 2025.

EGU25-17013 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Development of a Model to Estimate the Spatial Distribution of Soil Carbon Sinks in Watersheds 

Shao-Wei Wu, Ji-Huan Huang, Fu-Jun Tu, and Chao Yuan Lin

In recent years, soil has emerged as a central focus in natural carbon sink research. Past studies have largely concentrated on how plants capture atmospheric carbon through photosynthesis and progressively store it in the soil as they grow. This process is known as the "vertical process" of soil organic carbon accumulation.

However, in subtropical monsoon climates, soils in hillside regions are often subject to water erosion, which causes soil organic carbon to accumulate not only vertically but also laterally through the transport of terrestrial materials. This lateral movement represents the "horizontal process" of soil organic carbon accumulation. At the watershed scale, understanding the horizontal transport and accumulation of soil organic carbon is essential for accurate carbon budget assessments.

The movement of soil organic carbon plays a vital role in soil carbon dynamics within terrestrial ecosystems. This study focuses on gaining a deeper understanding of soil erosion processes and soil carbon storage in watersheds. The primary aim is to develop a slope soil carbon sink assessment model to evaluate the spatial distribution of soil carbon sinks within watersheds. Additionally, the study seeks to validate the model and assess its feasibility for practical applications.

How to cite: Wu, S.-W., Huang, J.-H., Tu, F.-J., and Lin, C. Y.: Development of a Model to Estimate the Spatial Distribution of Soil Carbon Sinks in Watersheds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17013, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17013, 2025.

EGU25-17388 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Exploring the effects of nutrients, carbon, and water darkening on coastal phosphorus bioavailability 

Mayra P. D. Rulli, Aurélie Garnier, Magnus Huss, Ryan A. Sponseller, Ann-Kristin Bergström, Hani Younes, Olivia Bell, and Martin Berggren

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly influenced by the lateral transport of organic matter, where pigmented dissolved organic carbon (DOC) contributes to water darkening and affects nutrient dynamics. These changes coincide with rising dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) inputs, which have implications for eutrophication and carbon cycling. However, it is unclear how the bioavailable DOP (BDOP) pool responds to the individual and interactive ecosystem-level effects of water darkening, increased DOC, and higher inorganic nutrient concentrations. To explore these interactions, we conducted bioassays to estimate BDOP in a fully factorial mesocosm experiment manipulating the supply of inorganic nutrients, labile DOC (glucose) and pigmented compounds causing darkening. Results showed that while labile DOC had limited influence on bioavailable BDOP, nutrient enrichment increased BDOP in clear water. In darkened waters, added inorganic phosphorus persisted largely in its inorganic form, reflecting decreased conversion to BDOP. These findings reveal the complex interplay between light availability, organic matter inputs, and phosphorus bioavailability. By highlighting the impact of water darkening on nutrient and carbon dynamics, this study underscores the need for integrated management approaches to mitigate eutrophication and support ecosystem resilience across the terrestrial-aquatic continuum.

How to cite: P. D. Rulli, M., Garnier, A., Huss, M., Sponseller, R. A., Bergström, A.-K., Younes, H., Bell, O., and Berggren, M.: Exploring the effects of nutrients, carbon, and water darkening on coastal phosphorus bioavailability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17388, 2025.

EGU25-18115 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Seasonal changes of organic carbon and nutrient fluxes in intermittent spring catchments 

Annika Feld-Golinski, Christina Fasching, and Peter Chifflard

Comprehensive, high-resolution data on intermittent natural springs with low discharge are still rare, although they represent an important interface between terrestrial and aquatic environments, and form the basis of our water systems. Due to their connection to groundwater, springs have been considered quite stable in terms of both hydro-biogeochemistry and water quality. However, with climate change, spring systems are subject to significant hydrological dynamics, partly due to changes in water availability. Currently, spring discharges are decreasing or drying up during more frequent droughts. The amount of nutrients exported to headwater streams is closely linked to hydrological processes. For intermittent springs, a significant change in biogeochemistry with increased nutrient export can be expected due to the temporary cessation of groundwater inflow combined with longer residence times of organic matter in the surrounding soil substrate. However, little is known about the role of intermittent springs in carbon cycling and their role in downstream carbon and nutrient export.

In order to fill this research gap, this study aims to asses and quantify the seasonal variability of carbon and nutrient composition and fluxes of intermittent or highly variable discharge springs as a function of climatic, site and biogeochemical parameters. We investigate a range of spring areas (44 springs) spread across the German low mountain ranges of the Ore Mountains, Sauerland, Black Forest and Rhenish Slate Mountains.

We measure the export of organic carbon based on high resolution data in selected springs, and complement these measurements with nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) samples on a seasonal basis. In addition, we investigate the composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) to identify contributing carbon sources.

First results show that the spring flow regime determines carbon and nutrient concentrations, modulated by the characteristics of the spring type. Our study emphasizes the sensitivity of springs to hydrological shifts, particularly in the balance between groundwater and surface water contributions. A shift favoring surface water inputs, can increase nutrient exports, likely due to enhanced surface runoff carrying nutrients from the surrounding landscape. Climatic changes, with extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent and intense, may alter the balance between groundwater inputs and surface water runoff in springs may result in higher carbon and nutrient fluxes into receiving waterbodies. 

How to cite: Feld-Golinski, A., Fasching, C., and Chifflard, P.: Seasonal changes of organic carbon and nutrient fluxes in intermittent spring catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18115, 2025.

EGU25-18316 | Posters on site | BG1.6

Dissolved organic carbon in a drinking water catchment in the western Ore Mountains, Germany: How much, Where from, When and Why – first insights 

Erik Nestler, Tobias Houska, Tobias Krause, Livia Vieira Carlini Charamba, Annelie Ehrhardt, Ingo Müller, Anne Stephani, Klaus Kaiser, Klaus-Holger Knorr, Maximilian Lau, Conrad Jackisch, and Karsten Kalbitz

Increasing concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in tributaries threaten the water quality of drinking water reservoirs in Europe and North America. Understanding the key factors influencing DOC dynamics in streams is essential for effective water resource management. This study is part of a concerted effort to determine the major sources of DOC entering a reservoir and to identify the key biogeochemical processes within the terrestrial-aquatic continuum that affect DOC concentrations.

We conducted a four-year multi-scale observational study in a small, heterogeneous catchment (8.5 km²) in the western Ore Mountains, Germany. The research design combined low-resolution (biweekly) measurements of soil water variables (e.g., DOC, pH, Al, Fe) with high-resolution (15-minute) sensor-based monitoring of environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, soil water content) at representative locations within the catchment. End-member mixing analysis (EMMA) quantified the contributions of peat, forest floor, and mineral soil horizons as sources of DOC, based on previous findings by Charamba et al. (2024), who qualitatively identified these sources within the catchment. In addition, relationships between DOC concentrations and potential explanatory variables were analyzed using Spearman correlations and Random Forest modeling.

In total, 16.5 kg DOC/ha*a were exported from the catchment to the reservoir. EMMA showed that peat soils contributed to about 85 % of the DOC in a tributary adjacent to these soils, corresponding to the highest area-related DOC load of 53 kg/ha*a. Nevertheless, across the entire catchment, mineral soils were the dominant source of DOC, contributing the most to the total DOC load exported to the reservoir (78 %; 13 - 18 kg/ha*a), while forest floors made the smallest contribution. At the temporal level, the contribution of the forest floor to DOC runoff increased under high flow conditions, highlighting the dynamic nature of DOC translocation from different soil sources to stream. Preliminary results of the correlation analysis highlight the influence of soil water chemistry, particularly Al and pH in C-rich horizons, on stream water DOC concentrations. Environmental variables such as precipitation and soil moisture were only moderately correlated with DOC concentrations. Random Forest analysis provided limited insights into key predictors, highlighting the complexity of the catchment and the processes underlying DOC production and translocation. Our results suggest that even bi-weekly sampling intervals may be insufficient to capture the temporal variations in soil processes affecting stream DOC concentrations. The variable time lag between soil processes and their hydrological expression poses a significant analytical challenge. Future research should focus on integrating high-resolution sensor data of DOC concentrations and water fluxes from hydrological monitoring stations. To address the limitations of Random Forest, we will use structural equation modelling (SEM) to refine conceptual models and identify causal relationships. Significant Spearman correlations between DOC and environmental and soil water parameters guide variable selection. The refinement of our conceptual model by SEM will be the basis for process-based modeling to predict the future development of DOC concentrations and fluxes in heterogeneous catchments.

How to cite: Nestler, E., Houska, T., Krause, T., Vieira Carlini Charamba, L., Ehrhardt, A., Müller, I., Stephani, A., Kaiser, K., Knorr, K.-H., Lau, M., Jackisch, C., and Kalbitz, K.: Dissolved organic carbon in a drinking water catchment in the western Ore Mountains, Germany: How much, Where from, When and Why – first insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18316, 2025.

EGU25-19961 | ECS | Posters on site | BG1.6

Organic carbon pathways from the Cuvette Centrale peatlands to the Congo River network 

Johanna Menges, Yannick Garcin, Gaël U. D. Bouka, Carolia Abaye, Mélanie Guardiola, Steven Bouillon, Yannick Stroobandt, Gesine Mollenhauer, Hendrik Grotheer, Simone Kasemann, and Enno Schefuß

The storage of organic carbon on land and its transfer to the ocean via rivers plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle. As the second-largest river system on Earth, the Congo Basin is a key region for carbon storage and export, with extensive wetlands and tropical forests contributing to a significant aboveground organic carbon reservoir. Recent discoveries have identified the Cuvette Centrale, a low-gradient depression in the center of the Congo Basin, as the world’s largest tropical peat complex, storing approximately 29 petagrams of carbon belowground. Despite its importance, key processes governing the export of carbon from these peatlands to the Congo River network remain poorly understood. Previous studies have shown that despite its low sediment load, the Congo River has a high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) export—around 2 Tg POC and 12.5 Tg DOC annually. Aged organic matter observed in offshore marine sediment cores suggests, peatlands may significantly contribute to carbon export, but direct evidence remains incomplete. Here, we present a data set comprising surface peat and soil, as well as water, suspended sediment, and river bank samples. These were collected from the surface and small water bodies (pools) in the peatlands, tributaries within and outside the Cuvette Centrale, and the Congo River mainstem. We measured stable carbon and hydrogen isotopes of plant waxes and bulk organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stable isotopes, as well as radiocarbon content on a subset of samples. Based on these data, we aim to investigate the significance and the pathways of carbon export from these peatlands and their respective contributions to riverine DOC and POC, alongside other sources such as standing vegetation and in-situ aquatic production. This study provides new insights into the role of the Cuvette Centrale peatlands in the Congo Basin’s carbon dynamics.

 

How to cite: Menges, J., Garcin, Y., Bouka, G. U. D., Abaye, C., Guardiola, M., Bouillon, S., Stroobandt, Y., Mollenhauer, G., Grotheer, H., Kasemann, S., and Schefuß, E.: Organic carbon pathways from the Cuvette Centrale peatlands to the Congo River network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19961, 2025.

EGU25-20215 | ECS | Orals | BG1.6

Peatland ditching as a driver of dissolved organic matter mobilization - the role of fungal communities 

Antonis I Myridakis, Håkan Wallander, Dimitrios Floudas, and Emma Kritzberg

Ditching of peatlands has been used extensively in Scandinavia with the purpose to promote tree growth. Studies show that concentrations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) are higher in waters exported from ditched peatlands compared to pristine systems, suggesting that ditching may contribute to browning observed in surface waters in forested regions.

After ditching and when trees are established, the peat will be colonized by ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi, which supply the trees with nutrients. We hypothesize that EM-fungi will mobilize DOM to the soil water while mining the peat for nutrients and saprotrophic fungi will become more active when the peat gets aerated, which will also result in mobilization of DOM. In the current project we are exploring the link between fungal communities and DOM mobilization in a peatland gradient, spanning from pristine conditions with high water level and lack of trees, to strongly drained conditions with low water level and established pine forest. Along this gradient, soil water was sampled from ground water tubes. Water and peat samples were analyzed for organic matter concentrations and the fungal community was characterized by metabarcoding.

DOM concentrations in the soil water were increasing towards the ditch - where the water level was lower and the tree growth higher - as was the fungal biomass. While these results are in line with our hypothesis, the results on fungal community composition will provide important information to assess the link between fungal processes and DOM mobilization.

This study will bring much needed information on succession of fungal communities with different decomposition strategies along peatland ditching gradients and potential links to DOM mobilization and surface water browning.

How to cite: Myridakis, A. I., Wallander, H., Floudas, D., and Kritzberg, E.: Peatland ditching as a driver of dissolved organic matter mobilization - the role of fungal communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20215, 2025.

EGU25-553 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Transition of a semi-arid lake from freshwater to saline system: significant change in biogeochemical process rates 

Ajayeta Rathi, Siddhartha Sarkar, Abdur Rahman, Mohammad Atif Khan, and Sanjeev Kumar

In recent decades, climate change and human interventions have caused severe changes such as desiccation, freshwater salinization, and increased nutrient loading etc. in the freshwater lacustrine ecosystems across the world. Due to these changes, lakes are facing a regime shift from macrophytes to phytoplankton-dominated ecosystems, which have several implications for the health of these ecosystems and ultimately for the in-lake biogeochemical carbon and nitrogen cycling. The present study attempted to understand the effect of the shift in lake hydrology and associated physiochemical parameters on the carbon and nitrogen assimilation efficiency in a tropical freshwater lake situated in semi-arid western India. Multiple field campaigns were conducted in three seasons (summer, monsoon, and winter) and rates of phytoplankton primary production (PP) and dinitrogen (N2) fixation were estimated using 13C and 15N tracer techniques. It was observed that PP and N2 fixation were lower during summer due to inhibition because of higher temperature, higher radiation, and salinity. PP showed a significant increase during monsoon as the lake received nutrients from catchment runoff and a shift to a phytoplankton-dominated ecosystem occurred. Additionally, to support this higher PP, N2 fixers were also active as higher rates of N2 fixation were observed during monsoon. During winter, the metabolic activity of the organism appears to reduce with a decrease in temperature which leads to lower PP and N2 fixation than monsoon. In the lakes, the regime shift might lead to higher carbon sequestration during phytoplankton-dominated stages than macrophyte-dominated.

 

How to cite: Rathi, A., Sarkar, S., Rahman, A., Khan, M. A., and Kumar, S.: Transition of a semi-arid lake from freshwater to saline system: significant change in biogeochemical process rates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-553, 2025.

Protecting wetlands from various human activities requires a deep understanding of their aquatic limnology. This calls for continuous monitoring, which generates extensive and complex datasets. By applying statistical analyses and modelling techniques, these datasets can be effectively interpreted to uncover, define, and gain critical insights into the functions and processes that drive aquatic ecosystems. The present study aims to integrate water quality, sedimentology, aquatic toxicology and modelling techniques to present a detailed and comprehensive assessment of different components of Deepor Beel's (a Ramsar site) ecosystem. Deepor Beel is situated on the banks of the Brahmaputra River in the northeastern region of India and holds immense significance to the city of Guwahati. Originally spanning across more than 40 sq. km area, rampant encroachment and anthropogenic disturbances have not only degraded the wetland ecosystem but also reduced its effective area to now a meagre four sq. km. Large-scale eutrophication due to the discharge of untreated municipal wastewater has played a significant role in the wetland's deterioration. Although several restoration measures were undertaken in the past, they could have been more effective as they lacked prognosis. Hence, we carried out systematic monitoring (the first such extensive monitoring was undertaken) of four components of Deepor Beel's ecosystem, i.e., water, sediment, fish, and aquatic weeds, to understand the governing factors responsible for the wetland's deterioration. We employed different multivariate statistical techniques to understand the sampling site's characterization and behaviour under various environmental and climatic stresses and identify and quantify latent pollution sources contributing to wetland pollution. In addition, a novel water quality index was developed employing Shannon Entropy, which encompasses all essential variables for a comprehensive understanding of the wetland's water quality. We assessed sediment contamination from heavy metals—including chromium (Cr), cadmium (Cd), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg)—and conducted fractionation studies, revealing important insights into how these metals interact within the ecosystem. Fish samples from three indigenous species that are locally consumed were collected, and we analyzed the bioaccumulation of heavy metals in various tissues and organs. Our findings indicated significant amounts of heavy metals in the fish organs, making their consumption potentially carcinogenic for humans. Finally, a eutrophication-based ecological model was developed to understand the nutrient dynamics within the wetland. The model was calibrated, and sensitivity analyses were performed and validated using the dataset generated through the laboratory analyses. The model was then simulated for two scenarios: 1) harvesting of aquatic weeds reflecting the current practices, and 2) establishing a treatment unit handling the nitrogen and phosphorus loadings. The results demonstrated that treating the inflow is a more sustainable approach to reducing eutrophication, and this strategy should be implemented promptly. Given the gravity of the situation for Deepor Beel, the findings of this study are significant and call for immediate attention and action.

How to cite: Dash, S. and Gupta, P.: Understanding the governing dynamics and trade-offs between heavy metals and nutrients in heavily contaminated wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-656, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-656, 2025.

EGU25-1409 | Posters on site | BG4.3

CO2 fluxes at a hypersaline shallow playa. The organomineral crust makes the difference.  

Andrea Butturini, Oscar Cabestrero, Joan Ferriol, Arnau Blasco, Yolanda García, Merce Berlanga, Pere Picart, Rosa Gomez, Jordi Urmeneta, Anna maria Romaní, and Esther Sanza-Montero

Shallow hypersaline playas are flat endorheic basins that form a salt crust at the top sediment layer. They are episodically flooded after intense rainfall events. After flooding, if precipitation does not persist, evaporation causes the water to recede, and salinity can increase up to 35–45%. Ultimately, the system dries up and evaporites like eugsterite (Na4Ca(SO4)3·2H2O), blödite (Na2Mg(SO4)2·4H2O), halite (NaCl) and gypsum (CaSO4·2H2O) can precipitate forming a rigid crust layer.

The present study focuses on measuring the exchange of CO2 between the upper sediments and the atmosphere at “La Muerte” playa-lake in the Monegros region (Aragon, Northeast Spain). Its main characteristic is the presence of a benthic organicmineral film dominated by cyanobacteria which uniformly covers the basin after rain events. As the water body evaporates, the biofilm contracts, while precipitated minerals replace organics and partially cement pore spaces, forming a rigid, salt crust–biofilm assemblage up to 1 cm thick. The two main objectives of the present study are:

  • To estimate the net CO2 exchanges under wet and dry conditions and therefore to verify the impact of water availability in modulating the magnitude and sign of CO2 fluxes
  • To investigate the significance of the upper organomineral crust on modulating the CO2

 

To accomplish these objectives this study relies on field in-situ short-term incubations complemented by additional ex-situ laboratory estimates. Main preliminary outputs are:

  • Net CO2 emission typically predominated over net consumption.
  • Net CO2 emission increased in summer, under dry conditions. Net CO2 consumption is detected under water-saturated conditions only.
  • The CO2 emissions decreased in incubations where the surface biofilm remained undisturbed, as opposed to those where it was removed.
  • Most subsurface CO2 emission originates from just below the crust (ca. 1 cm depth) to 8 cm depth.
  • Under dry conditions, primary productivity of phototrophs at the top biofilm crust is insufficient to account for the observed decrease in CO2

Overall, these results suggest that although the upper layer is not an impermeable barrier to gas flows, such as CO2, it transiently mitigates its seepage into the atmosphere.

How to cite: Butturini, A., Cabestrero, O., Ferriol, J., Blasco, A., García, Y., Berlanga, M., Picart, P., Gomez, R., Urmeneta, J., Romaní, A. M., and Sanza-Montero, E.: CO2 fluxes at a hypersaline shallow playa. The organomineral crust makes the difference. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1409, 2025.

EGU25-1873 | ECS | Posters on site | BG4.3

The Arabian Gulf: A Field Laboratory for Studying Marine Biocalcifier Resilience Under Natural and Anthropogenic Stress - Current Progress and Future Directions 

Sinatrya Diko Prayudi, Bassam Tawabini, Korhan Ayranci, and Michael Kaminski

Over the past 10,000 years since the last reemergence of marine systems from glacial conditions, the Arabian Gulf has become a well-known semi-restricted basin with no equal. Despite its importance as a present-day analogue for past geological environments and events, such as the Messinian Salinity Crisis and the rise and fall of the Dammam Sea during the Middle Eocene, there has been limited research development from academia, and these studies tend to be localized. The resilience of living marine organisms, particularly biocalcifiers, in the face of future climate change and global warming within this naturally stressed environment is also a major concern.

This work elaborates on the progress in understanding the impact of stressed environments on living biocalcifiers amid uncertainties in future climatic perturbations and human-induced problems. Various approaches have been used in the region, including thermal tolerance experiments, global warming predictions, and studies of human waste impacts (heavy-trace elements, microplastics, etc.). Several advancements have been made, such as experimenting with the thermal tolerance of intertidal and shallow-water benthic biocalcifiers, observing a “kill zone” linked to prolonged summer heat and desalination plant plumes, and studying the occurrence of microplastic waste in the soft tissues of selected biocalcifiers. To develop a comprehensive understanding and provide accurate proxies for past and future conditions, and to understand how marine biocalcifiers and their habitats in the Arabian Gulf change spatio-temporally, more work and collaboration are needed. As an academic institution in the region, we welcome future collaboration.

How to cite: Prayudi, S. D., Tawabini, B., Ayranci, K., and Kaminski, M.: The Arabian Gulf: A Field Laboratory for Studying Marine Biocalcifier Resilience Under Natural and Anthropogenic Stress - Current Progress and Future Directions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1873, 2025.

EGU25-2083 | ECS | Posters on site | BG4.3

Oxygen and sulphur trends in a highly hypertrophic lake: a case study from Salbker South, Germany 

Marlene Dordoni, Luisa Coder, Yvonne Rosenlöcher, and Jörg Tittel

Lakes that are supersaturated with nutrients often meet the definition of hypertrophy and draw scientific attention due to their distinctive biogeochemical dynamics. Salbker South, an urban lake located in Magdeburg, Germany, exemplifies such an environment. Since summer 2022, it has been the focus of a high-frequency monitoring that reported total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (chl a) levels as high as 1.4 mg L⁻1 and 417 µg L⁻1, respectively. TP and chl a contribute to substantial organic carbon (OC) accumulation and create a fragile ecosystem where biological communities are under threat from processes such as anoxia induced by OC-mineralisation during thermal stratification between May and September. Anoxic events involve both the hypolimnion, which becomes undersaturated in DO down to 0.0 mg L-1within a week from the onset of thermal stratification, and the epilimnion where diurnal changes in DO span from 0.0 to > 20 mg L-1. Additionally, the high sulphate (SO₄) levels in the lake (up to 1.46 mg L-1) that are derived from the Zechstein Formation and hamper water electrical conductivity to 4 – 5 mS cm-1 facilitate the production of hydrogen sulphide (H₂S). As a result, H₂S concentrations in the deeper waters have been recorded to exceed 8.2 mg L-1. These dynamics position Salbker South as a natural H₂S generator. To mitigate these issues and reduce yearly cyanobacterial blooms, targeted restoration programs aimed to lower nutrient concentrations and stabilize lake biogeochemical balances are urgently needed. Our monitoring program that includes nearby groundwater wells, the Elbe River, and Lake Salbker North, is set to continue, aiming to establish this site as a hub for scientific innovation and interdisciplinary collaboration.

How to cite: Dordoni, M., Coder, L., Rosenlöcher, Y., and Tittel, J.: Oxygen and sulphur trends in a highly hypertrophic lake: a case study from Salbker South, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2083, 2025.

EGU25-2753 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Invariable selection of compounds from organic matter by stream microbes 

Jörg Tittel, Volker Lüderitz, Sabine Radke, Yvonne Rosenlöcher, and Oliver J. Lechtenfeld

Organic carbon (OC) in rivers is one of the most rapidly recycled carbon pools. However, there is no consensus on the mechanisms that determine which compounds are remineralized. We studied the radiocarbon age of dissolved OC (DOC) that is decomposed in laboratory experiments across a range of stream bulk DOC ages. Stream DOC was collected from small forested catchments under summer dry flow, average flow and storm flow conditions. The ∆14C of respiratory CO2 increased with the ∆14C of stream DOC (P = 0.006, N = 16). However, the slope of the regression was small (0.20 ± 0.06) and the dependence was weak (R2 = 0.43). In further experiments, we used leachates of catchment soil from 0-8 cm and 8-20 cm depth and a 1:1 mixture of the two depths as initial DOC. Again, the increase in ∆14C-CO2 as a function of ∆14C-DOC was significant (R2 = 0.74, P = 0.028, N = 6), but the slope was small (0.13 ± 0.04) and the age range of respired DOC was narrow (modern to 280 years BP) compared to initial leachate DOC (600 to 3400 years BP). Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry showed that similar (small, unsaturated, oxygen-rich) CHO molecules were consumed regardless of DOM source. The narrow age ranges of respired DOC suggest that intrinsic chemical quality sets the limits for which compounds can be utilized under given geochemical conditions. However, strategies of microorganisms to optimize growth (optimal foraging) may modulate their specific substrate choice, as indicated by the dependence of the age of respired OC on the age composition of the original DOC.

How to cite: Tittel, J., Lüderitz, V., Radke, S., Rosenlöcher, Y., and Lechtenfeld, O. J.: Invariable selection of compounds from organic matter by stream microbes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2753, 2025.

Ammonia is one of the dominant foraminiferal species in the intertidal zone and the late Quaternary delta stratigraphy, which has been popularly used as a key micropaleontological indicator for the past environment.  However, its classification has been battled since 19th century.  The development of molecular analysis has shed a new light on the taxonomy and phylogeny of foraminifers over the last several decades.

Ammonia confertitesta Zheng 1978, taxonomically erected and adopted in the microfossil study for the Shangdong peninsula, China, is the most dominant species in the surface sediments of shallow water of the Yellow Sea.  This species was reported recently in the European ocean environment (harbor), regarding as a non-indigenous species.  Ammonia aomoriensis (Asano, 1951) has also been adopted in some recent publications.  For a better understanding of its taxonomy and distribution, in this study, living Ammonia specimens were collected from the muddy sediments at the Haimen inter-tidal zone of the southwestern Yellow Sea, and performed molecular analyses on their SSU rDNA sequences.

A large number of the inter- and intra-specific SSU rDNA sequences were obtained for Ammonia confertitesta specimens of the southwestern Yellow Sea. These sequences were conducted phylogenetic analysis together with other related Ammonia sequences from the GenBank.

The phylogenetic tree shows that Ammonia catesbyana (d'Orbigny, 1839), Ammonia aomoriensis (Asano,1951), Ammonia confertitesta Zheng 1978 and Ammonia sp. T6 (Hayward et al. 2004) form one distinct group (Clade A), and suggests that A. confertitesta, A. catesbyana and A. aomoriensis be synonymous.  Ammonia catesbyana, was first reported and described from the shallow waters off Cuba (D'Orbigny, 1839).  Therefore, instead of others, we propose that Ammonia catesbyana (D'Orbigny, 1839) be a valid nomination for the distinct group; and the worldwide distribution of Ammonia catesbyana implies that Ammonia confertitesta Zheng 1978 in Europe is probably not a non-indigenous species from the East Asia marine waters.

 

This work is supported by the CAS Strategic Priority Project (XDB XDB26000000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41776073).

How to cite: Li, B. and Zhang, K.: Taxonomy of Ammonia catesbyana (d'Orbigny, 1839) revisited: evidence on the intraspecific DNA sequences from the intertidal sediments of the southwestern Yellow Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2972, 2025.

This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of water quality, phytoplankton, and zooplankton communities in two hydrologically connected reservoirs, Lantan and Renyitan, where water is transferred from Renyitan to Lantan. Seasonal and spatial analyses were conducted on key water quality parameters, including ammonia nitrogen (NH₄-N), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved oxygen (DO), and chemical oxygen demand (COD), and their influence on plankton abundance and diversity was assessed. Zooplankton abundances averaged 1500 ± 200 individuals/mL during the wet season, significantly higher than the dry season’s 1200 ± 150 individuals/mL (p = 0.0096, d = 1.58). Phytoplankton abundances also increased significantly during the wet season (p = 0.013), driven by nutrient enrichment from surface runoff and hydrological mixing. Diversity indices, such as the Shannon-Wiener Index (H') and Margalef’s Richness Index (DMg), displayed notable seasonal variations (p < 0.001), suggesting greater diversity and community balance in the wet season. Depth-related variations were more pronounced for zooplankton, with higher species richness (50 ± 8 species) and diversity (H' = 2.5 ± 0.2) in shallow zones, compared to opportunistic dominance in deeper waters (Dominance Index D = 0.7 ± 0.1). Phytoplankton depth-related differences were minor, with shallow samples averaging 5200 cells/mL compared to 4900 cells/mL in deep waters (p = 0.537). Inter-reservoir comparisons revealed higher biodiversity and community balance in Renyitan, whereas Lantan exhibited localized nutrient imbalances, promoting dominance of specific taxa.  Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) analysis highlighted significant seasonal shifts in plankton communities, with broader dispersion in the wet season due to dynamic environmental conditions. Deep-water habitats exhibited greater ecological stability, clustering tightly around NMDS centroids. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) identified TN, TP, and DO as critical environmental drivers (p < 0.01). These findings emphasize the influence of seasonal and depth-related dynamics on plankton communities within connected reservoirs. Insights derived from this study provide valuable foundations for nutrient management, bloom mitigation strategies, and sustainable reservoir ecosystem management. Future research incorporating molecular tools and long-term monitoring is recommended to enhance understanding of community resilience in the face of climate-driven changes.

How to cite: Kuo, Y.-M.: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Water Quality and Plankton Communities in Hydrologically Connected Reservoirs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3050, 2025.

    There is a close relationship between the face of benthic foraminifera and water masses. Benthic foraminifera are sensitive to changes in seawater temperature, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen, making them a good material for reconstructing paleoceanographic environments, and thus are frequently used as indicators of the sedimentary environments. An alternation of brownish gray to greenish gray (“red-green”) intervals was observed at IODP Expedition 368 Site U1502 in the northern South China Sea. In this study, we analyzed benthic foraminiferal assemblages in sediments from two sections of Hole U1502A to reconstruct changes in bottom water mass properties in the northern South China Sea during the Middle-Late Miocene.
    Abundant benthic foraminifera were found in both sections, with higher abundance in the Late Miocene section (10R1W) than in the Middle Miocene section (29R5W-30R6W). Among them, a total of 78 genera and 225 species of benthic foraminifera were identified, and both sections were dominated by Epistominella exigua, Nuttallides umbonifera, Globocassidulina subglobosa, Gyroidinoides orbicularis ,and Oridorsalis umbonata,indicating a long-term deep-sea environment.
    Additionally, significant variations in the abundance of Uvigerina peregrina and Bulimina alazanensis were found in the two sections. The abundance of U. peregrina was much higher than that of B. alazanensis in the Middle Miocene section, whereas in the Late Miocene section, the abundance of U. peregrina decreased dramatically while that of B. alazanensis increased significantly. Since B. alazanensis occupied the same niche in the South Pacific deep water as U. peregrina in the North Pacific, this may suggest that the northern South China Sea was influenced by alternating deep water masses originating from the North Pacific to the South Pacific during the Middle-Late Miocene.

    This work is supported by the CAS Strategic Priority Project (XDB XDB26000000) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41776073).

How to cite: Zhang, K. and Li, B.: Reconstructing Middle-Late Miocene Bottom Water Mass Properties in the Northern South China Sea: Insights from Benthic Foraminifera, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3932, 2025.

EGU25-4232 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Fluorescence Monitoring and Modeling for Understanding Organic Matter Dynamics in European Rivers 

Xinyu Liu, Steven Loiselle, Luisa Galgani, Amedeo Boldrini, Alessio Polvani, and Riccardo Cirrone

This study focuses on exploring the dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) using high-frequency, continuous monitoring coupled with advanced fluorescence spectroscopy and statistical modeling. By combining continuous fluorescence sondes with spot sampling, we show temporal and longitudinal dynamics of DOM over a 14-month period in two UK rivers. The integration of fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM) spectroscopy and Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC) enabled the identification of key fluorescent components, including humic and protein-like substances. Real-time monitoring of these two DOM components reveals significant diel and seasonal variations in both the quantities and characteristics of DOM. External carbon sources (treatment works, agricultural land use) showed increased protein-like DOM, particularly during summer, indicating the influence of labile organic matter. A new fluorescence ratio (humic DOM/protein-like DOM) proved to be a robust indicator for differentiating between microbial-derived labile DOM and more refractory humic substances, offering new insights into organic matter processing and nutrient cycling in the studied ecosystems.

Modeling approaches, based on ANCOVA and logistic regression, demonstrated that allochthonous sources, precipitation, and seasonal temperature variations were key drivers of DOM dynamics. Periods of low temperature and high precipitation were characterized by a notable increase in humic-like DOM concentrations, primarily due to enhanced runoff of terrestrial organic matter into the river system. In contrast, as temperature increased, tryptophan-like DOM concentrations rose, reflecting heightened microbial activity driven by warmer conditions. The elevated temperature not only stimulated microbial metabolism but also accelerated the decomposition of organic matter, leading to the production of more labile, protein-like substances. These contrasting seasonal trends highlight the dual influence of hydrological inputs and temperature-driven biological processes on DOM patterns.

How to cite: Liu, X., Loiselle, S., Galgani, L., Boldrini, A., Polvani, A., and Cirrone, R.: Fluorescence Monitoring and Modeling for Understanding Organic Matter Dynamics in European Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4232, 2025.

EGU25-4249 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Organic matter composition and water stoichiometry are main drivers of heterotrophic nitrate uptake in Mediterranean headwater streams. 

Xavier Peñarroya, Núria Catalán, Anna Freixa, Anna Lupon, Xavier Triadó-Margarit, Eugènia Martí, Montserrat Soler, Emili O. Casamayor, and Susana Bernal

Heterotrophic bacteria can contribute to improve stream water quality by taking up nitrate (NO3-) from the water column, although microbial demand for this nutrient is usually lower than for other inorganic nitrogen (N) forms, such as ammonium. Heterotrophic NO3- uptake has been related to the availability of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) relative to nutrients (i.e., DOC:nutrients ratios). Yet, how dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and specific microbial assemblages influence NO3- uptake remains poorly understood. We conducted laboratory incubations to investigate heterotrophic NO3- uptake kinetics in 9 Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems, primarily headwater streams, exhibiting wide variation in DOC:NO3 ratios (from 1.5 to 750). Moreover, we characterized DOM composition using spectroscopic indexes and its degradation via a Reactivity Continuum model approach. Microbial community composition and functioning were assessed by analysing extracellular enzymatic activities and the potential abundance of N-cycling genes.  Our results revealed that NO3- uptake rates (kNO3) were positively related with DOC:NO3 ratios (r2 = 0.4) and to NO3:SRP ratios as well (r2 = 0.6). Furthermore, kNO3 was negatively correlated to the humification index (r2= 0.7), suggesting that a higher proportion of humic-like compounds slow down heterotrophic NO3- uptake. A partial least squares regression model (PLS) pinpointed that DOC and nutrient stoichiometry, DOM composition and reactivity, and microbial composition and activity collectively contributed to explain the variability in kNO3 observed across treatments. Our findings suggest that heterotrophic NO3- uptake may show significant responsiveness to shifts towards more labile DOM sources and nutrient imbalances induced by global change.

How to cite: Peñarroya, X., Catalán, N., Freixa, A., Lupon, A., Triadó-Margarit, X., Martí, E., Soler, M., O. Casamayor, E., and Bernal, S.: Organic matter composition and water stoichiometry are main drivers of heterotrophic nitrate uptake in Mediterranean headwater streams., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4249, 2025.

EGU25-6612 | Orals | BG4.3

Predictions of riverine gas exchange rates may be biased towards low-submergence rivers 

Giulio Dolcetti and Annunziato Siviglia

The exchange of gas across the interface between rivers and the atmosphere is a key control of oxygen and carbon fluxes (in the form of carbon dioxide and/or methane) in rivers and streams. The intensity of gas exchange is measured by the gas transfer velocity, k, a parameter expressing the efficiency of sub-surface mixing driven by turbulence in water. Scaled experiments and theoretical analysis both suggest a significant shift in the drivers of k depending on the relative submergence, i.e., the ratio between water depth H and the characteristic bed roughness scale, D: In high-submergence (deep) rivers, turbulent mixing is dominated by viscous forces, while in low-submergence (shallow) rivers by form drag due to protruding bed roughness elements. However, the bed roughness scale is not usually reported in field gas transfer datasets and the effects of submergence are neglected by existing models.

We conducted a meta-analysis of the largest known dataset of gas transfer velocity and hydraulic flow parameters to investigate the potential role of submergence on gas transfer in the field, estimating the relative submergence according to the observed flow resistance through an established semi-empirical variable-power relation. Then, we used the same model to partition the gas transfer velocity into its friction (high submergence) and macro-roughness (low submergence) constituents. The results indicate that 93% of data was recorded in low-submergence streams and rivers (partition coefficient > 0.5). Such skewness in the data distribution is explained by the difficulty in measuring the gas transfer velocity in large rivers using existing methods. Due to the different physical mechanisms governing gas exchange, widely used semi-empirical models calibrated in shallow rivers may overestimate k in deep rivers. Since large rivers contribute around 50% of global riverine CO2 emissions, the impact on global emissions uncertainties may be significant. Ultimately, our results highlight the urgent need for improved measurement approaches to characterise the gas transfer velocities in large rivers, and the importance of introducing systematic quantitative riverbed surveying into gas exchange measurement protocols.

How to cite: Dolcetti, G. and Siviglia, A.: Predictions of riverine gas exchange rates may be biased towards low-submergence rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6612, 2025.

EGU25-7203 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Unraveling dissolved organic matter sources and their link to land use along the Rapel River Continuum, Chile 

Morgane Derrien, Simona Retelletti Brogi, Leo Chasselin, Fernando Lizana, Zoé Hayet, Mario Flores, Ignacia Yanten, Chiara Santinelli, and Céline Lavergne

Inland aquatic ecosystems play a crucial role in the carbon cycle, acting as an interface for carbon exchange between the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the oceans. Due to their importance, dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics in continental water bodies have been widely studied. However, most studies are limited to specific sections of river basins, such as headwaters or estuaries, leaving a significant gap in understanding continuous fluvial systems encompassing the entire watershed, particularly regarding the behavior of DOM at the basin scale. To address this gap, we investigated the DOM dynamics within a watershed of 14,000 km² with diverse geomorphological features, following its entire course from the Andes to its only outlet into the Pacific Ocean. This watershed is highly diverse, combining high mountain areas impacted by mining activities with intensively farmed agricultural zones, livestock production in the central region, residential areas, and various recreational activities. The study aims to analyze variations in DOM characteristics along a fluvial continuum and their relationship with land use in different basin sections. A total of 25 sampling points were selected across the basin, including locations within the three sub-basins and the most significant tributaries. At each station, water physicochemical properties were measured by using a portable multiparametric probe, and water samples were collected for measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, DOM optical properties (fluorescence and absorbance spectroscopy), isotopic analyses, as well as metalloids. A portable sensor was also used to measure nitrate concentrations directly on site. The results allowed us to (i) identify the sources of DOM, (ii) characterize DOM dynamics along the continuous river, and (iii) establish the relationship between DOM sources and different land use types across the basin's sections. This study provides the first regional-scale investigation of DOM dynamics along a river continuum in Chile and offers valuable insights into DOM responses across such systems, raising questions about existing theories of the river continuum concept. Finally, this study represents the first step of a more comprehensive and multidisciplinary study that will also cover seasonality and interannual variability of DOM dynamics and aquatic microbial community diversity in this region.

How to cite: Derrien, M., Retelletti Brogi, S., Chasselin, L., Lizana, F., Hayet, Z., Flores, M., Yanten, I., Santinelli, C., and Lavergne, C.: Unraveling dissolved organic matter sources and their link to land use along the Rapel River Continuum, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7203, 2025.

EGU25-7457 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Drivers of stream metabolism in anthropogenically disturbed mountainous streams of Uganda.  

Florence Nansumbi, Gabriele Weigelhofer, Robinson Odong, and Thomas Hein

Stream metabolism is a fundamental ecosystem function that includes gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). These processes measure the energy supply and consumption in the aquatic system and are the basis for the green and brown food webs. Because of their sensitivity to environmental stressors, they are important in aquatic ecosystem management as functional indicators of the ecosystem’s health. They also have the benefit of being an integrative indicator of ecosystem change since they are influenced by multiple factors at different scales. Although the drivers of metabolism in river systems are known, there is great variation in the factors controlling stream metabolism within and between individual river systems due to natural and anthropogenic drivers. Additionally, limiting factors can vary from one system to another, leading to distinct metabolic regimes.
In Uganda's mountainous regions, the interaction between natural factors such as elevation and human-induced disturbances, including deforestation, agriculture and urbanization can cause metabolic patterns to deviate from those predicted for headwater streams. Understanding the drivers of stream metabolism in these anthropogenically impacted ecosystems is therefore crucial for their sustainable management. Considering the increased impact of anthropogenic activities on headwater streams and the general lack of understanding of the drivers of metabolism in these systems, this study examined the drivers of metabolism in anthropogenically disturbed headwater montane streams in western Uganda.
Over 7 months, metabolism and its hypothesised drivers were measured in 11 tropical stream reaches at high elevation. Stepwise regression was used to build models to understand the factors influencing GPP and ER at catchment and local scales. At large scales, stream order, catchment area, and percentage of agriculture and forest cover influenced GPP, while stream order, elevation and the percentage of urban land use influenced ER. Structural equation modelling showed that catchment factors influenced GPP through effects on local drivers such as stream width, ammonia and phosphorous concentrations in sediments, turbidity and canopy cover. On the other hand, the catchment drivers controlled ER through influence on discharge, temperature, phosphorus, and ammonia. Our results suggest that metabolism in mountainous streams is not only affected by anthropogenic activities, but elevation also plays an important role for the observed patterns. The high elevation and steep slopes initiate further sediment-related processes, erosion and sedimentation, influencing metabolism.

How to cite: Nansumbi, F., Weigelhofer, G., Odong, R., and Hein, T.: Drivers of stream metabolism in anthropogenically disturbed mountainous streams of Uganda. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7457, 2025.

EGU25-8073 | Orals | BG4.3

A High-Throughput Automated Microfossil Classification System Using Deep Learning 

Takuya Itaki, Ayumu Miyakawa, Kazuhide Mimura, and Minoru Ikehara

The rapid advancement of computational power has facilitated the widespread adoption of deep learning, a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), in various fields. Automated microfossil classification using AI is increasingly explored as a solution to reduce labor and address the declining availability of skilled personnel. However, practical implementation in research remains limited due to challenges such as the need for extensive training datasets and the lack of advanced equipment like automated microscopes. To address these issues, we implemented deep learning as a function to automatically classify microfossils on a virtual slide scanner that can process up to 360 microscope slides continuously. This study applied the system to sediment core DCR-1PC from the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean to obtain high-resolution records of the radiolarian analysis.

How to cite: Itaki, T., Miyakawa, A., Mimura, K., and Ikehara, M.: A High-Throughput Automated Microfossil Classification System Using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8073, 2025.

EGU25-8520 | Orals | BG4.3

Confluences act as biogeochemical hot spots in Mediterranean stream networks 

Anna Lupon, Xavi Peñarroya, Carolina Jativa, Zhao Xinyue, Eugènia Martí, Núria Catalán, Valentí Rodellas, Susana Bernal, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Sílvia Poblador, Stephanie Merbt, and Carolina Olid

Headwater streams are critical for global biogeochemical cycles, transporting and retaining large amounts of carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). However, global element fluxes within headwater fluvial networks remain poorly constrained, partially due to the extreme spatial variability in water chemistry. Here, we assessed how confluences shape C, N and P concentrations and major biogeochemical fluxes along Mediterranean fluvial networks. We hypothesized that confluences act as biogeochemical hotspots because lateral inflows can supply limiting resources to the receiving streams. To test this hypothesis, we conducted synoptic surveys in fall 2024 across three Mediterranean headwater fluvial networks within the Tordera basin (Catalonia). We measured organic and inorganic C, N and P concentrations every 50 meters along the mainstem as well as in major lateral inflows, including permanent tributaries, intermittent tributaries and preferential groundwater flowpaths. Further, we performed laboratory incubations to assess changes in heterotrophic activity, C degradation and nutrient uptake between sites located upstream and downstream of major confluences. Preliminary results show that C:N:P ratios varied across streams (from 483:2:1 to 818:58:1), suggesting that stream biota was limited by either N, P or both. Further, confluences shaped element concentrations along the mainstem by either diluting element concentrations (mixing effect) or delivering limiting nutrients that enhanced biogeochemical activity (reactor effect). Overall, these findings underscore the role of confluences as biogeochemical hotspots and highlight their importance for regulating water chemistry and element fluxes within stream networks.

How to cite: Lupon, A., Peñarroya, X., Jativa, C., Xinyue, Z., Martí, E., Catalán, N., Rodellas, V., Bernal, S., Rocher-Ros, G., Poblador, S., Merbt, S., and Olid, C.: Confluences act as biogeochemical hot spots in Mediterranean stream networks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8520, 2025.

EGU25-8876 | Orals | BG4.3

Similar pattern of diurnal nitrate retention in different stream orders: seasonal to sub-daily insights from high-frequency data 

Michael Rode, Xiaoqiang Yang, Xiaolin Zhang, and Sakline Shawon

High-frequency nitrate-N () data are increasingly available, while accurate assessments of the importance of in-stream retention processes is deviating stream orders are still unclear. In this presentation we hypothesize that similar diurnal nitrate uptake pattern exists in different stream orders and that these patterns can reveal insights into the dominance of uptake processes across stream scales. To test this assumption continuous 15-min estimates of  retention was derived in a 1st stream and  a 6th-order reach of the lower Bode River network (27.4 km, central Germany) using a one station method for the 1st order agricultural headwater stream and a two-station approach for the 6th order stream applying a data fusion framework capturing river hydraulics and their impacts on solute signal propagation through river hydrodynamic modelling (Yang et al. 2023). This methodological setting was used for long-term sensor monitoring data from 2015-2023 capturing highly deviating hydrological (normal and drought) and stream morphological conditions. The unique  retention estimates revealed very similar characteristic diurnal variation of  retention pattern. Three very similar clusters of diel uptake patterns were identified in both streams, potentially representing changes in dominant autotrophic and heterotrophic   retention processes. While the dominating N-uptake clusters were similar in both systems, their seasonal occurrence showed significant differences between the two streams. For example, clusters reflecting assimilatory N-uptake dominated in the 1st order stream in all years and seasons. In the 6th order reach autotrophy-characterized clusters mostly occurred during early seasons, which are then followed by a shift to heterotrophic-dominated uptake pattern during summer- autumn low-flow periods. In addition, dominance of autotrophic   retention extended more widely across seasons during the drought years. In contrast, the 1st order stream showed relevance of both autotrophic and heterotrophic uptake even in the winter month due to the stimulation by elevated spring water temperature. The analysis of characteristic uptake clusters and the suggested framework can be flexibly transferred across sites and scales, thereby complementing high-frequency monitoring to identify in-stream uptake processes and to inform river management.

Reference

Yang, X., Zhang, X., Graeber, D., Hensley, R., Jarvie, H., Lorke, A., Borchardt, D., Lif, Q., Rode, M. (2023) Large-stream nitrate retention patterns shift during droughts: Seasonal to sub-daily insights from high-frequency data-model fusion. Water Research, 243, 120347.

How to cite: Rode, M., Yang, X., Zhang, X., and Shawon, S.: Similar pattern of diurnal nitrate retention in different stream orders: seasonal to sub-daily insights from high-frequency data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8876, 2025.

EGU25-9005 | ECS | Posters on site | BG4.3

Impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on microbiological water quality indicators along an urban riverine tropical wetland   

Flavia Byekwaso, Guenter Langergraber, Gabriele Weigelhofer, Rose Kaggwa, Frank Kansiime, and Thomas Hein

Impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on microbiological water quality indicators along an urban riverine tropical wetland  

Flavia Byekwaso1,3,6, Guenter Langergraber2, Gabriele Weigelhofer1,3, Rose Kaggwa4, Frank Kansiime5,  Thomas Hein1,3

1 University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Department of Ecosystem Management, Climate and Biodiversity, Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, Gregor-Mendel-Strasse 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria

2 University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU), Department of Landscape, Water and Infrastructure, Institute of Sanitary Engineering and Water Pollution Control, Muthgasse 18, 1190 Vienna, Austria

3 WasserCluster Lunz, Dr. Kupelwieser-Promenade 5, 3293 Lunz am See, Austria

4National Water and Sewerage Corporation, P.O. BOX 7053, Kampala, Uganda

5 Makerere University, Department of Environmental Management, P.O. BOX 7062, Kampala, Uganda

6 Ministry of Water and Environment, Climate Change Department, P.O BOX 20026, Kampala, Uganda

ABSTRACT

 

Water quality monitoring is essential for understanding seasonal variations in microbiological indicators and their implications for public health. Waterborne bacteria and pathogens are a significant cause of human diseases, especially in developing countries.  The study aimed to understand the factors that cause seasonal changes in the concentrations of microbiological water quality indicators along a riverine tropical wetland. In total, 144 water samples were collected for 12 months at six sites along Lubigi wetland in Kampala, Uganda, receiving varying stormwater and wastewater inputs from urban water infrastructure during the dry and wet seasons. Water samples were analysed using specific microbiological assay tests for Escherichia coli, faecal coliforms, heterotrophic plate counts, Enterococcus and Salmonella species. Generally, the highest concentrations of microbial contamination were detected during the dry season at all sites. There was a decreasing trend in microbial contamination for all the selected five microbiological indicators with increasing distances from the sources of stormwater and wastewater inflows in the upstream reaches towards the downstream areas of Lubigi wetland. Nitrogen compounds, Escherichia coli, faecal coliforms, Enterococcus and Salmonella species originated from stormwater, whereas wastewater discharges delivered primarily phosphorus compounds, organic matter and heterotroph plate counts. E. coli and heterotrophic plate counts were positively correlated with water temperature and salinity. E. coli, faecal coliforms and heterotroph plate counts were positively associated with Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD5). Escherichia coli, faecal coliforms and Enterococcus species were positively correlated with NH4-N. Escherichia coli, faecal coliforms, and heterotrophs dominated with high concentrations during the dry seasons, while Enterococcus and Salmonella species were more prevalent in the wet season. Escherichia coli, faecal coliforms and Salmonella showed insignificant logarithmic reductions during both seasons, showing when the carrying capacities of Nsooba main channel and Lubigi sewage treatment plant systems were exceeded. Enterococcus species showed no reduction in both seasons, which implied continuous high in-stream contamination. Heterotrophs showed significantly higher logarithmic reduction during the wet season than in the dry season. This suggested a concentration reduction during the wet season and loading/increase in the dry seasons. Our research findings may be used by the public health sector to understand relationships between the occurrence of surface water quality microbiological indicators and the prevalence of diseases through strategic seasonal monitoring and evaluation in Kampala and the region.

How to cite: Byekwaso, F., Langergraber, G., Weigelhofer, G., Kaggwa, R., Kansiime, F., and Hein, T.: Impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on microbiological water quality indicators along an urban riverine tropical wetland  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9005, 2025.

EGU25-9893 | Orals | BG4.3

Reproduction and morphological variability of Cyprideis torosa under different water temperatures and salinities in laboratory cultures 

Christopher Berndt, Matthias Nagy, Isolde Berger, Romana Melis, and Gianguido Salvi

Natural habitats consist of a large variety and variability of environmental factors. Reproduction in laboratory cultures is thus a highly effective way to pinpoint and quantify the impact of a specific environmental factor on a species which is hardly possible in natural environments.

The most common ostracod species in European marginal marine environments is Cyprideis torosa (Jones, 1850). It is a morphologically variable species but laboratory reproduction experiments of C. torosa are scarce and thus reducing an undisputed use of its morphological variability as a paleo-environmental proxy.

Although it is usually intended to use ostracod valves as paleo-thermometer, the nature of the impact of temperature on ostracods and on their morphology remains questionable. We aim to test whether temperature plays a significant role influencing the morphological characteristics of C. torosa in different salinities. In addition, laboratory cultures are a great opportunity to better understand the life cycle of ostracods, their reproduction times and juvenile numbers.

We collected samples from Marano Lagoon (Italy) at salinity levels of 7.2, 17.2 and 29.6 psu. For our experimental setup, we transferred boiled (= sterile) sediment (<150µm) from each of the newly established cultures in five crystallizing dishes, added lagoon water from each sampling location, and added 8 male and 12 female adult specimens of C. torosa. We placed one dish per salinity level in incubators at fixed 15, 20, 30 or 35°C and one outdoors. After finding at least 10 hatched juveniles, adult specimens were removed and remaining juveniles were raised to adulthood. Subsequently, we continued to check the abundance of juveniles and remove newly grown adults from the culture in monthly sievings. The morphological characteristics of the original and new adults were mutually compared.

The first results of our cultivation experiment suggest a rather stable reproduction rate at constant temperatures and salinities. The reproductive activity of C. torosa is highest in the lower saline cultures at 20 and 30°C and decreases with higher salinities as well as extreme low and high temperatures. First morphometric results indicate a phenotypic salinity-temperature modification of its size, ornamentation and shape.

How to cite: Berndt, C., Nagy, M., Berger, I., Melis, R., and Salvi, G.: Reproduction and morphological variability of Cyprideis torosa under different water temperatures and salinities in laboratory cultures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9893, 2025.

EGU25-10171 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

The Impact of Seagrasses Disappearance on the Marine Phosphorus Cycle 

Neta Soto, Gilad Antler, and Avner Gross

Seagrasses are marine plants that play a crucial role in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. This process relies heavily on nutrients, e.g., phosphorus (P), which is often limiting in marine environments. However, the complex dynamics between seagrasses and P reservoirs remain poorly understood. Moreover, seagrasses are rapidly disappearing worldwide at alarming rates, making it crucial to study their impact on the marine P cycle, particularly in light of their decline. Here, we investigate P speciation in seagrass-influenced sediments, bioavailability, and transformations during seagrasses decomposition. The P distribution within the plant exhibits correlation with elongation as the young leaves contain more P than the old leaves, indicating the plant’s P allocation efficiency. This is further explored in decomposition experiments which reveal that aboveground biomass releases more P than belowground biomass. These findings underscore the critical influence of seagrass on P dynamics amid global seagrass decline.

How to cite: Soto, N., Antler, G., and Gross, A.: The Impact of Seagrasses Disappearance on the Marine Phosphorus Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10171, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10171, 2025.

Current rising temperatures in the oceans change marine habitats and faunal compositions as well as physiological and metabolic processes in marine organisms. While thermal stress is potentially threatening existing benthic communities it can be advantageous for invasive species that are better adapted to high temperatures. One such example of a successfully expanding species is the symbiont-bearing large benthic foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera Larsen, 1976 originating from the Red Sea, that has spread throughout the coastal ecosystems of the eastern Mediterranean. Studies on A. lobifera have shown its high tolerance to increasing temperature with regards to survivorship and photochemistry in temperature ranges from 24 °C to 36 °C. Interestingly, little is known about the species’ actual metabolic and photosynthetic activity with respect to oxygen consumption and production under different temperatures, especially towards the lower boundaries of its optimal environment. This study addresses this gap with a quantitative assessment of A. lobifera’s respiration rates that also allows for better comparison with other species and environmental factors. Amphistegina lobifera was permanently cultivated in the laboratory at University of Vienna in artificial seawater (ASW) at 24 °C and 38 psu with a day:night light cycle of 8:16 hours and ~ 10 µmol photons/m²/s light intensity. A non-invasive method was used to analyse oxygen respiration rates. The method involved placing an Oxygen Sensor Spot in a small, 2 ml airtight glass vial filled with ASW alongside the foraminifera. Oxygen concentrations under dark and light conditions (~ 30 µmol photons/m²/s) at different temperatures (16 °C, 20 °C, 24 °C, 28 °C, 32 °C, 36 °C) were recorded. Seventeen cleaned, living specimens were measured in triplicate after a 24-hour acclimation period. Respiration rates, normalized for biovolume (µm³), ranged from 3.73 × 10⁻⁹ nmol O₂/µm³/h at 16 °C to 2.83 × 10⁻⁸ nmol O₂/µm³/h at 32 °C under dark conditions. Oxygen production under light conditions consistently exceeded consumption. Gross photosynthesis was lowest at 36 °C (1.45 × 10⁻⁹ nmol O₂/µm³/h) compared to the overall mean of 4.06 × 10⁻⁸ nmol O₂/µm³/h. These results will give further insights into the ecological impacts and the contribution to biogeochemical cycles of A. lobifera in future ocean environments. Furthermore, the method provides a robust approach for comparing respiration rates across species and isolating the effects of specific environmental factors on metabolic rates.

How to cite: Palme, T. and Nagy, M.: Quantifying respiration and photosynthesis rates in Amphistegina lobifera at different temperatures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10216, 2025.

EGU25-10385 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Changes in carbon isotope distribution in sediments of Lake Plateliai, Lithuania, over the last 130 years 

Rūta Barisevičiūtė, Jonas Mažeika, Jūrate Karosiene, Jūratė Kasperovičienė, Žilvinas Ežerinskis, and Justina Šapolaitė

The radiocarbon (14C) dating of lake sediments is widely used to estimate the so-called reservoir age (RA), i.e. the 14C age difference between the atmospheric and lake ecosystem carbon reservoirs. However, lake sediments are a mixture of autochthonous and various allochthonous carbon sources having distinct 14C specific activities. The RA depends on the catchment bedrock, CO2 exchange rates between water and the atmosphere, which are affected by organic carbon production and decomposition rates, inflow/outflow of organic and inorganic mater, water residence time, water level fluctuations, climate change, and other environmental factors impacting the lake’s catchment area. Every disturbance affecting carbon exchange between the water ecosystem, the terrestrial environment, and the atmosphere impacts carbon isotope distribution in the lake ecosystem.

Lake Plateliai is the largest lake in the north-western part of Lithuania (Samogitia). It is located on the territory of Samogitia National Park. The absence of cultivated fields on the park’s territory conditioned the lake to remain one of the cleanest in Lithuania. The present study focusses on sediment records from Lake Plateliai over the last 130 years. This time period is related to dam-induced lake’s water level fluctuations, increase/decrease in primary productivity due to intensive agricultural development since the 1960s, and its decline in the 1990s.

The aim of this work was to estimate how environmental factors have influenced the carbon cycle within the lake and how these impacts are recorded in sediments, i.e., changes in sedimentation rate, carbon isotope distribution among organic sediment fractions.

During the last 130 years, the radiocarbon reservoir age of the of the alkali soluble and alkali insoluble fractions of lake sediments has been reduced by 872.4 ±80 years, and a decreasing trend of 14C concentration values is recorded/observed in the upper layers. The14C specific activity values in both sediment organic fractions coincided during the last ten years and 1885-1932. However, changes in the water level during the period 1963-1976 and unknown events in 1939-1940 led to the introduction of allochthonous origin matter into the lake ecosystem, resulting lower 14C concentrations in the alkali soluble fraction compared to the alkali insoluble fraction.

How to cite: Barisevičiūtė, R., Mažeika, J., Karosiene, J., Kasperovičienė, J., Ežerinskis, Ž., and Šapolaitė, J.: Changes in carbon isotope distribution in sediments of Lake Plateliai, Lithuania, over the last 130 years, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10385, 2025.

EGU25-10803 | Orals | BG4.3

A new approach for identifying catchment typologies based on phosphorus impact risks 

Per-Erik Mellander, Phil Jordan, Rachel Cassidy, Golnaz Ezzati, Jean Ortega, Marc Stutter, Magdalena Bieroza, Remi Dupas, Adrian Collins, Russell Adams, Kevin Hiscock, Richard Cooper, and Phil Haygarth

Phosphorus (P) transfer indices (Mobilisation index and Delivery index) were recently introduced to facilitate a standardized, systematic and objective method to evaluate P transfer and impact risks at the catchment scale. The method was developed from high-frequency hydro-chemo-metric data using ratios of high and low percentiles of P concentrations and mass loads. Using a large dataset from 23 catchments in North-western Europe, we present a pooled catchment approach to establish a relationship between the Mobilisation and Delivery indices with the catchments’ baseflow and flashiness indices with the objective to identify catchment P impact risk typologies. While hydrology largely controls P transfer, the deviation from this hydrological relationship highlighted the presence of other influences, such as intrinsic P retention and point source or legacy P controls. The method distinguishes the type of dominating mobilisation and delivery risk (runoff, point source and/or legacy P) and of intrinsic retention (poor solubility and/or poor hydrological connectivity).

The P mobilisation in 12 of the catchments was dominated by hydrological controls. Five other catchments, with large flat areas, high water storage capacity and/or with a high P sorption capacity, had a potential to retain 39% - 68% of reactive P (RP) corresponding to an annual retention of 0.02 - 0.32 kg RP/ha. The highest intrinsic P retention was in a karstic limestone spring contribution zone rich in calcium. Finally, six of the catchments manifested a varying degree of point source influences, which elevated the RP mobilisation by 16% -77% and corresponded to an annual loss of 0.02 – 0.12 kg RP/ha. While hydrological controls dominated P delivery in all catchments, two catchments manifested a P delivery reduced by 72% and 76% due to poor hydrological connectivity (0.02 and 0.12 kg RP/ha per year). Eight catchments had a higher Delivery index in relation to the Mobilisation index, and these catchments were those with above average hydrological flashiness. We propose that these catchments are, to a varying degree, influenced by legacy P (river scouring and/or resuspension of P). This highlights that mobilisation risk could be independent from delivery risk owing to the hydrological connectivity of the landscape.

The proposed approach can guide P pollution management by identifying and quantifying the underlying dominant impact risks within catchments. Identifying catchment typologies based on P risk classes can be further useful for scaling up and for understanding the additional pressures caused by climate and land use changes.

How to cite: Mellander, P.-E., Jordan, P., Cassidy, R., Ezzati, G., Ortega, J., Stutter, M., Bieroza, M., Dupas, R., Collins, A., Adams, R., Hiscock, K., Cooper, R., and Haygarth, P.: A new approach for identifying catchment typologies based on phosphorus impact risks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10803, 2025.

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing rapid environmental changes, with current warming rates exceeding the global average. This accelerated warming has triggered profound shifts in sea ice extent, thickness, and seasonal dynamics. As a result, these alterations impacted the timing of phytoplankton blooming, expanded open-water habitats, and modified the timing of primary production with far-reaching implications for benthic-pelagic coupling processes and benthic ecosystems. This study investigates benthic microfaunal communities, particularly benthic foraminifera (Rhizaria) and ostracoda (Crustacea), as they serve as sensitive indicators for contemporary Arctic conditions. Their distribution, abundance, and standing stocks reflect key factors such as organic matter availability, seasonal ice cover, and water mass properties (e.g., salinity and temperature). The materials for this study were collected during the expedition PS92 (ARK-XXIX/1) "TRANSSIZ" (Transitions in the Arctic Seasonal Sea Ice Zone, 19 May – 28 June 2015) aboard the German research icebreaker Polarstern. This six-week mission focused on early spring ecological and biogeochemical processes across the European Arctic margins. The study area covers the eastern flank of the Yermak Plateau and the northern continental slope of the Barents Sea. Sampling water depths ranged from 470 m to 1829 m. The four cores (PS92/19, PS92/27, PS92/31, PS92/39) were collected with a multiple corer (MUC) with an internal diameter of 10 cm (surface area 78,5 cm2). The MUC frame was equipped with a live broadcasting video system that transfers pictures to the ship via glass fibre cable. A Sanyo HD400P camera (10x optical zoom) captured images of under-ice fauna, marine snow in the water column, and phytodetritus originating from the spring blooms. Surface sediment samples were collected and analysed in the 63 and 125 μm size fractions to identify and characterise microfaunal communities. The results will provide a better understanding of how Arctic benthic ecosystems are adapting to a rapidly transforming environment. Additionally, current spring results will provide data that attempts to fill an existing gap in Arctic benthic foraminifera and ostracoda sampling.

How to cite: Faizieva, K., Wollenburg, J., Berndt, C., and Heinz, P.: Deep-sea living benthic foraminifera and ostracoda from the European Arctic margin and the Yermak Plateau during the spring phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic Ocean: distribution, abundance, and standing stocks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10942, 2025.

EGU25-11080 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Changes in spatial dissolved Fe and total Mn in a tropical river in Brazil: Influence of reservoirs with different operational dynamics 

Échily Sartori, Diego Lacerda, Cristiane dos Santos Vergilio, and Carlos Eduardo de Rezende

Brazil has 1,320 hydroelectric plants in operation, distributed throughout its territory. The construction of dams for water storage and energy generation causes significant changes in sediment transport and hydrological dynamics, affecting the biogeochemical cycle of various elements. In the Southeast region, the Paraíba do Sul River Basin (PSR) accounts for approximately 6% of these plants, making it a strategic area for studying the environmental impacts associated with reservoirs. To assess the impacts on physicochemical and elemental dynamics (i.e., Dissolved Oxygen “dO2”, pH, turbidity, dissolved Fe, and total Mn), this study analyzed three years (2021–2023) of water quality monitoring data along the main course of the river, covering four dams with different operational systems (Santa Branca and Funil: storage; Lavrinhas and Anta: run-of-river). The dO2 median concentration increased downstream, while turbidity, d-Fe, and t-Mn showed a decreasing trend. On the other hand, pH levels remained relatively stable, with little variation. However, near the dams, a decrease in dO2, pH, turbidity, and d-Fe concentrations was observed immediately downstream of the Santa Branca and Funil dams. Conversely, the Lavrinhas and Anta dams showed little or no influence on these variables. The upper region of the PSR is characterized by intense industrialization, which contributes to the deterioration of water quality variables in this section of the river. The reservoirs in the basin exhibit distinct dynamics, influencing the levels of these variables in different ways. Santa Branca and Funil are larger storage reservoirs with depths ranging from 20 to 40 meters, where intermediate and deep layers have distinct characteristics from surface waters, promoting hydrogeochemical changes at certain times of the year. These waters are generally more acidic and less oxygenated due to the decomposition of organic matter and the respiration of organisms. Additionally, these reservoirs promote particle deposition, contributing to reduced turbidity downstream. These conditions favor the release Fe and Mn from bottom sediments, increasing their dissolved concentrations in the water column. The availability of Fe and Mn, as well as other nutrients, increases the growth of macrophytes and phytoplankton productivity, generating large areas of eutrophication. This process reduces the dissolved fraction of these elements and consequently increases the particulate fraction. On the other hand, Lavrinhas and Anta are run-of-river reservoirs with shallower depths and little to no stratification in the water column, resulting in less significant changes in parameters downstream. However, even in run-of-river reservoirs, depth can influence variable dynamics. This is evident in the case of Anta, which showed an influence on Fe and Mn levels, highlighting that even smaller run-of-river reservoirs can impact the cycles of these elements. In conclusion, long-term studies on these reservoirs are essential, since over the years we have been reporting high concentrations of cyanobacteria with the potential to produce toxins, which has led to interruptions in water supply to the population.

How to cite: Sartori, É., Lacerda, D., dos Santos Vergilio, C., and Eduardo de Rezende, C.: Changes in spatial dissolved Fe and total Mn in a tropical river in Brazil: Influence of reservoirs with different operational dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11080, 2025.

EGU25-13098 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

The Role of Littoral Vegetation and Open Water Greenhouse Gas Fluxes on the Carbon Budget of Urban Stormwater Ponds 

Della Zhou, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, Stephanie Slowinski, Jovana Radosavljevic, and Philippe Van Cappellen

Stormwater ponds (SWPs) are a common stormwater management technology in new urban developments and have been suggested to be significant sources of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). However, they also sequester organic carbon and reduce the surface runoff of nutrients, hence, altering nutrient limitation patterns, trophic conditions, and GHG exchanges. Although numerous studies have focused on estimating open water GHG emissions in artificial ponds, there are limited studies that evaluate net carbon budgets of urban SWP systems comprehensively. In this study, we assessed the relative contributions of the littoral vegetation and open water GHG fluxes to the carbon budgets in two SWPs located in the City of Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. CO2 and CH4 fluxes were measured in the forebay and main basin of two SWPs draining catchments with two different catchment land use (residential versus industrial). Using vegetation and floating chambers, CO2 and CH4 fluxes were measured bi-weekly across all seasons, capturing Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Ecosystem Respiration (ER), and Gross Ecosystem Production (GEP) from both bank and submerged vegetation, plus the diffusive and ebullitive fluxes from the open water surface. Additionally, key parameters, including photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air and soil temperature, water pH, conductivity, and dissolved gas concentrations, were also measured. We observed significant differences in the fluxes between the littoral vegetation and open water surfaces. Carbon gas emissions from the open water surface were dominated by ebullitive CH₄ fluxes, with the open water acting as a net carbon source. Ebullition events occurred more frequently and with greater intensity in the forebay areas of the SWPs, contributing the most to open water carbon emissions. In contrast, carbon gas emissions from the vegetation were largely driven by photosynthesis and soil respiration, with the vegetated littoral zone functioning as a net CO2 sink. Different vegetation types exhibited varied responses to meteorological conditions, but all showed clear seasonal trends, with higher gas fluxes in summer due to increased biological activity, and minimal fluxes during the frozen season. Unlike vegetation, open water fluxes did not display a distinct seasonal trend; instead, they were primarily influenced by precipitation events and inflow runoff. The forebay of the industrial pond received higher carbon inputs from contaminated stormwater runoff, leading to greater sediment accumulation and elevated GHG fluxes, with frequent and high-intensity CH4 ebullition events being a notable feature. Our findings highlight the critical influence of land use, hydrological events, and seasonal cycles on the carbon balance of SWPs and their potential role in urban carbon cycling. 

How to cite: Zhou, D., Rezanezhad, F., Slowinski, S., Radosavljevic, J., and Van Cappellen, P.: The Role of Littoral Vegetation and Open Water Greenhouse Gas Fluxes on the Carbon Budget of Urban Stormwater Ponds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13098, 2025.

EGU25-13121 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Water quality and greenhouse gas emissions from degraded forest drainage ditches on peat soil  

Jürgen Sarjas, Margit Kõiv-Vainik, Kadir Yildiz, Isaac Okiti, Ilona Tamm, Mihkel Pindus, and Kuno Kasak

Draining land from excess water is a common practice in forestry to accelerate tree growth, but it has significant environmental implications, particularly in the case of peatland forests. Drainage exposes nutrient-rich peat soils to oxygen, triggering peat decomposition and mineralization, which leads to increased CO2 emissions from the soil and the leaching of solids, organic matter, and nutrients to water. While accelerated tree growth may partially offset CO2emissions, unmanaged drainage ditches are possible hotspots for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  

This preliminary study monitors water quality and quantity, and GHG emissions in unmanaged ditches of four sub-catchments of a 507.6 ha peatland forest drainage system in western Estonia. Ditch reconstruction works will be done in the summer of 2025. To mitigate the negative impacts, ecological water protection measures - sedimentation ponds and hybrid systems combining ponds with treatment wetlands, are used. From July 2022, once per month, water temperature, dissolved oxygen content, electrical conductivity, pH, redox potential, and turbidity are measured onsite from ditches entering mitigation measures. From grab samples total suspended solids (TSS), total inorganic carbon, total organic carbon (TOC), dissolved organic carbon, total phosphorus (TP), phosphate-phosphorus, total nitrogen (TN), nitrite-nitrogen, nitrate-nitrogen, ammonium, sulfate, magnesium, calcium, chlorides, and total iron are analyzed in the laboratory. Flow rates monitored from the outflows of mitigation measures with V-weirs combined with automated water level loggers are the basis for the estimation of potential sediment and nutrient loads. From April 2023, monthly CH4 and CO2 fluxes were measured on four 0.6 km sections of unmanaged ditches entering mitigation measures with a floating chamber and portable LI-7810 trace gas analyzer. In addition, an extensive random mapping of GHG emissions from unmanaged ditches of the whole drainage system was conducted in May 2024. 

The median concentration (range presented in parenthesis) of TSS 10.0 (2.0-200), TOC 53.0 (28-81), TP was 0.032 (0.012-0.281), and TN 2.70 (0.78-14.0) mg L-1 are indicating that the studied ditches are a source of diffused water pollution, foremost for phosphorus. 

The median CH4 and CO2 flux emissions from unmanaged ditches entering mitigation measures were 0.30 (0.01-69.39) mg CH4-C m-2h-1 and 31.02 (0.39-644.38) mg CO2-C m-2h-1, respectively. The mapping resulted with median CH4 and CO2emissions of 1.40 (0.06-70.25, n=33) mg CH4-C m-2h-1 and 30.30 (-64.46-100.14, n=23) mg CO2-C m-2h-1. GHG emissions from unmanaged ditches show high seasonal variability, high emissions in summer, and relatively low mean emissions during autumn and spring.  

The performed monitoring gives unique information about the water quality and quantity, and GHG emissions in unmanaged ditches. This background data is the main input for evaluating the impact of reconstruction works of peatland forest ditches and the performance of mitigation measures.

How to cite: Sarjas, J., Kõiv-Vainik, M., Yildiz, K., Okiti, I., Tamm, I., Pindus, M., and Kasak, K.: Water quality and greenhouse gas emissions from degraded forest drainage ditches on peat soil , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13121, 2025.

EGU25-13368 | Orals | BG4.3

Towards sustainable nutrient management along the Land-Sea continuum, an integrated modeling perspective 

Goulven G. Laruelle, Antoine Casquin, Vincent Thieu, Marie Silvestre, Arthur Capet, and Pierre Regnier

The Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum (LOAC) plays a pivotal role in the transfer and transformation of carbon and nutrients from terrestrial systems to coastal waters, critically influencing coastal eutrophication resulting from excessive nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loads from rivers compared to Silica (Si). Indeed, both agricultural practices on land and biogeochemical processes in and near streams as well as within estuaries control the eventual export of carbon and nutrients into the coastal sea. To address the complex interplay of biogeochemical processes that govern these transfers, an integrated modeling approach combining agricultural practices (GRAFS, an agri-food system model), river network and wetland processes (pyNuts-Riverstrahler modelling framework), and estuarine dynamics (C-GEM model) was applied across metropolitan France over the 2014–2019 period. The estuarine dynamics were modelled only where relevant, on 40 macro-tidal estuaries along the French Atlantic coast. This comprehensive framework explicitly quantifies the cascading fluxes of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC), and different forms of N, P and Si from headwaters to estuarine outlets. In addition, three different scenarios of agricultural practices modulating N diffuse inputs were designed and applied ranging from ‘business as usual’ to a switch towards ‘agroecology’. The modeling chain described above was applied to all watersheds larger than 300 km2 (n = 80) using reference conditions representative of the 2014-2019 period and validated by an extensive riverine database of 392,870 measurements from 929 stations.  

This integrated approach allows quantifying potential excess in nutrient export into the coastal seas compared to Redfield ratios between N, P and Si. Our simulations reveal that even under the most optimistic trajectories of nutrient reduction from agricultural practices, some coastal regions such as those flowing into the Celtic Sea will still experience nutrients exports above admissible values, despite in and near streams processes in rivers and estuaries typically removing 20-60% of the nutrient inputs from the land. Our results thus highlight the need for an integrated approach of nutrient management strategies encompassing terrestrial ecosystems, inland and coastal waters. Such an approach is needed to evaluate how these management strategies can help achieve sustainable water quality thresholds across the interconnected aquatic ecosystems of the LOAC.

How to cite: Laruelle, G. G., Casquin, A., Thieu, V., Silvestre, M., Capet, A., and Regnier, P.: Towards sustainable nutrient management along the Land-Sea continuum, an integrated modeling perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13368, 2025.

EGU25-13388 | ECS | Posters on site | BG4.3

Impact of headwater streams on N2O emissions from agricultural catchments 

Camille Vautier, Pratik Gokhale, Doralou Béraud, Rock S. Bagagnan, Barbara Yvard, Eliot Chatton, and Anniet Laverman

Mineral and organic fertilization is estimated to be responsible for 70% of N2O emissions worldwide, a greenhouse gas which is approximately 270 times more potent than CO2. N2O emissions occur during biogeochemical processes of the nitrogen cycle, which take place in the various compartments of the water cycle (soil, aquifer, hyporheic zone, streams, etc.). During the transport of nitrate in the aquifer, incomplete denitrification can produce N2O and lead to groundwater concentration of N2O higher than the atmospheric equilibrium concentration. As groundwater then discharges into streams, excess N2O can be released to the atmosphere7. N2O can also be produced through incomplete denitrification in the hyporheic zone.

The emission of N2O from a stream depends on the denitrification occurring in the contributing compartments but also of the rate of gas exchanges between the stream and the atmosphere. Recent studies have shown that small-scale streambed heterogeneities are hot spots for gas exchanges. Yet, they are not considered in empirical equations to calculate gas exchange rates. Empirical equations only consider global parameters of the stream (ex: slope, water velocity, depth) and overlook local hot spots for gas exchanges. This suggests that N2O emissions from headwaters could be underestimated. Since headwater streams drain about 70% of the land surface on Earth, underestimating their rule in N2O emissions may lead to a significant bias in the global estimation of N2O emissions from freshwater ecosystems.

Here we investigate the rule of headwaters in the global N2O emissions, in order to better characterize the N-cycle in headwaters and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. We measure N2O along various headwater streams in agricultural areas using gas chromatography coupled to electron capture detection (GC-ECD). We further perform in-situ monitoring of N2O on a few representative sites using a continuous flow membrane inlet mass spectrometer (CF-MIMS) which is brought to the field in a mobile laboratory. To trace the origin of N2O, measurements are coupled with other tracers (nitrate, nitrite, nitrogen isotopes, radon, dissolved silica, etc.). Results reveal a large oversaturation of N2O in agricultural headwater streams and allow to track the production and emissions of N2O along headwater streams. This research links the disruption of biogeochemical cycles to another largely crossed planetary boundary, global warming. It therefore addresses a crucial issue of ecological transition in rural areas, the use of fertilizers, from the global perspective of greenhouse gas emissions.

How to cite: Vautier, C., Gokhale, P., Béraud, D., Bagagnan, R. S., Yvard, B., Chatton, E., and Laverman, A.: Impact of headwater streams on N2O emissions from agricultural catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13388, 2025.

EGU25-13396 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Microbial control of sediment phosphorus release along a river-floodplain gradient 

Michele Meyer, Matthias Koschorreck, Markus Weitere, Daniel Graeber, David Kneis, and Nuria Perujo

Sediment phosphorus release, also referred to as internal loading,  typically delays the response of eutrophic waters to reductions in external nutrient inputs. Internal loading is particularly relevant in shallow waterbodies like floodplain lakes with high sediment-to-water ratios. Traditionally, sediment phosphorus release has largely been explained by the biogeochemical interactions of iron, phosphorus, and oxygen. However, in sediments with a limited availability of iron but high organic content, the direct release of phosphorus from microbial mineralisation is the major mechanism behind internal loading. This is particularly the case in floodplains where benthic microbial functional diversity and corresponding activity play a pivotal role in sediment phosphorus release. Lateral hydrological connectivity further modulates sediment nutrient fluxes and microbial processes by altering biogeochemical conditions. Although the importance of microbe-organic matter interactions for phosphorus dynamics has been recognised, they are often not considered when assessing sediment phosphorus release.

Here, we analyse the trajectory of potential sediment phosphorus release as well as dissolved carbon and nitrogen concentrations along a river-floodplain gradient of the River Elbe (Germany) from April to September 2024. Specifically, we link the dynamics of nutrients to dissolved organic matter quality and quantity, extracellular enzyme release, metabolic carbon diversity and further sediment biogeochemical parameters. Our findings reveal a general decrease in dissolved phosphorus concentrations from the river to the floodplain backwaters. However, in the periodically disconnected waterbody, we observed unexpectedly high soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations (~0.5 mg L⁻¹) following hydrological isolation, coinciding with elevated benthic extracellular phosphatase and β-glucosidase activity. Further linkages between the prevalent dissolved organic matter components, microbial mineralisation and microbial functional diversity were analysed and will be presented. Our results contribute to the mechanistic understanding of how microbial mineralisation processes modulated by hydrological connectivity shape sediment phosphorus release in river-floodplain systems.

How to cite: Meyer, M., Koschorreck, M., Weitere, M., Graeber, D., Kneis, D., and Perujo, N.: Microbial control of sediment phosphorus release along a river-floodplain gradient, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13396, 2025.

EGU25-14264 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Development of pH Visualization Methods to Study Shell Formation in Juvenile Pearl Oyster Pinctada fucata 

Takashi Toyofuku, Yukiko Nagai, Michio Suzuki, and Takashi Atsumi

Biomineralization in pearl oysters (Pinctada fucata) is well-studied due to their economic value and research accessibility. Their shells comprise an outer calcite prismatic layer and an inner aragonite nacreous layer, presenting the classic calcite-aragonite polymorphism problem in biomineralization research. While molecular and genetic aspects of shell formation are increasingly understood, direct observation of formation mechanisms remains limited.

This study applied microscopic pH imaging techniques, previously successful in foraminifera research, to observe pH dynamics during shell development. Post-settlement individuals (shell length ~0.5 mm) from Mie Prefecture Fisheries Research Institute were examined using HPTS (pyranine) fluorescence microscopy. Observations revealed specific pH distributions, with elevated levels (~8.1 compared to ambient seawater ~7.7) parallel to growth lines near shell thickening areas, while soft tissue regions showed lower pH (<6.0), likely corresponding to digestive areas. These findings indicate active pH regulation during shell formation in bivalves.

Further research should investigate pH pattern responses to varying environmental conditions, particularly regarding climate change parameters. Studies of specific mechanisms creating these pH gradients and comparisons across developmental stages would enhance our understanding of biomineralization processes, benefiting both fundamental research and pearl cultivation practices.

How to cite: Toyofuku, T., Nagai, Y., Suzuki, M., and Atsumi, T.: Development of pH Visualization Methods to Study Shell Formation in Juvenile Pearl Oyster Pinctada fucata, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14264, 2025.

River damming has altered riverine biogeochemical cycles, yet we still lack a mechanistic understanding of how modified hydrodynamic conditions reshape mainstream-tributary ecosystems, particularly the coupling between physicochemistry processes and phytoplankton functional groups in channel-type reservoirs. Here, through high-frequency sampling and multidimensional analysis of the Xiangjiaba Reservoir in the upper Yangtze River, China, we explored spatial heterogeneity of tributary ecosystems and its underlying mechanisms. Distinct spatial patterns emerged - while maintaining strong connectivity between mainstream and tributaries (connectivity index: 0.85), the inter-tributary connectivity remained notably weak (0.26-0.34). Intriguingly, adjacent tributaries (Xining and Zhongdu Rivers) developed markedly different ecological characteristics, whereas geographically distant tributaries (Zhongdu and Dawenxi Rivers) displayed unexpected ecological convergence, challenging conventional spatial distance-ecological similarity paradigms. This spatial heterogeneity was reflected in both biogeochemical processes and phytoplankton functional groups: restricted water exchange in tributaries may promote nutrient accumulation (TN: 1.35-1.45 mg/L), leading to distinct shifts in functional group composition (ρ = 0.574, p < 0.001). We identified a critical threshold in relative water column stability (RWCS = 5.111/m) beyond which bloom-forming functional groups became dominant. Temporal analysis revealed synchronized patterns where tributary algal biomass peaked when system connectivity reached its minimum (0.30) in May, highlighting the cascading effects from hydrodynamics to ecosystem functions. These findings provide fresh perspectives on tributary ecosystem heterogeneity in regulated rivers, with important implications for reservoir management under global change.

How to cite: Wang, X. and Sun, J.: Spatial heterogeneity of tributary ecosystems in a channel-type reservoir: Linking physicochemistry to phytoplankton functional groups, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14379, 2025.

EGU25-14627 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

On why the embankment matters when assessing greenhouse gas emissions from urban stormwater ponds 

Stephanie Slowinski, Della Zhou, Jovana Radosavljevic, Cynthia Bova, Hannah Weatherson, Md Abdus Sabur, Bowen Zhou, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, and Philippe Van Cappellen

Urban stormwater ponds (SWPs) are a common runoff control measure that can also have beneficial outcomes for water quality. However, pond emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), raise questions about the climate impact of SWPs. Here, we establish whole-system annual carbon budgets for two SWPs in the City of Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, to compare the open water CO2 and CH4 effluxes to other input and output fluxes of carbon. These include the fluxes of particulate and dissolved inorganic and organic carbon at the inlet and outlet points of the pond, plus those associated with the sediments accumulating in the ponds. In both SWPs, the open-water effluxes of CO2 and CH4 are small compared to the inflow, outflow, and burial carbon fluxes. The SWP sediment budgets further imply that a large fraction of the sediment accumulating in the ponds is supplied by erosion of the embankment. The accompanying delivery of soil organic matter, together with direct litter and organic detritus inputs from the vegetation surrounding the pond, serves as an important source of the open-water CO2 and CH4 emissions. The latter are therefore largely derived from atmospheric CO2 fixed by the ponds’ littoral and embankment vegetation. Consequently, although the SWPs open waters emit CO2 and CH4, the entire SWP engineered systems, including the embankment, act as net CO2 sinks. Overall, our results point to the potential to design and manage SWPs for enhanced climate change mitigation.

How to cite: Slowinski, S., Zhou, D., Radosavljevic, J., Bova, C., Weatherson, H., Sabur, M. A., Zhou, B., Rezanezhad, F., and Van Cappellen, P.: On why the embankment matters when assessing greenhouse gas emissions from urban stormwater ponds, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14627, 2025.

Global atmospheric methane (CH4) emissions have risen significantly, tripling in atmospheric concentrations since preindustrial times. Wetlands, as the largest natural source of CH4 emissions, contribute significantly to the global CH4 budget. However, quantifying wetland CH4 emissions remains highly uncertain due to the complex interplay of hydrological and biogeochemical processes. In this study, we develop a random forest (RF) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to identify the main predictors of CH4 emissions across different climate zones and on a global scale. We used monthly global environmental variables and CH4 flux emissions from FLUXNET-CH4 dataset, incorporating 39 wetland sites over the globe. These sites are classified into tropical, temperate, and boreal regions by latitude. Key variables considered in the analysis included mineral-associated organic carbon, soil organic carbon, soil moisture, and canopy height. Our findings reveal that air temperature and latent heat are the most important predictors of CH4 at both global and regional scale. Regionally, tropical wetlands are primarily influenced by canopy height, water table level and soil organic carbon while soil temperature emerges as the dominant driver in temperate and boreal wetlands. Furthermore, we analyze the similarities and differences in CH4 predictors across climate zones to improve our understanding of regional and global wetlands CH4 dynamics. Understanding the main predictors of CH4 emissions across wetland regions is essential for improving CH4 budget accuracy on both regional and global scales.

How to cite: Rivas Pozo, E. and Kim, Y.: Identifying the main drivers of methane flux in wetlands using machine learning and FLUXNET data across climate zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15443, 2025.

Benthic foraminifera are a group of protists that inhabit a diverse range of habitats from salt marsh meadows to the deepest sea. Recently, benthic foraminifera have been shown to intracellularly accumulate phosphate. Intracellular phosphate concentrations can be 100-1000 times higher than in the surrounding water. Phosphate is an important macronutrient in marine ecosystems and widely used as an industrial fertilizer, which is potentially leaked to the ocean. We show that phosphate storage in foraminifera is widespread and occurs in diverse environments such as tidal flats, hypoxic fjord basins, oxygen minimum zones and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The highest intracellular phosphate concentrations have been found in cells of the species Ammonia confertitesta from the German Wadden Sea. The total amount of intracellular phosphate stored in A. confertitesta in the Wadden Sea during a bloom is as high as ~5% of the annual consumption of phosphorus (P)-fertilizer in Germany. More detailed budget calculations for the Southern North Sea and the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone indicate that benthic foraminifera may buffer riverine P runoff for ~37 days at the Southern North Sea and ~21 days at the Peruvian margin. This indicates that these organisms are likely relevant for marine P-cycling. They potentially buffer anthropogenic eutrophication in coastal environments.

The intracellular phosphate storage seems to have diverse functions. Coupled TEM-EDS and cryo-SEM-EDS was used to map the intracellular phosphorous distribution in cells of the species Ammonia veneta and Bolivina spissa. Phosphorous accumulations were associated with round vesicles, possibly acidocalcisomes that are typically used to store polyphosphates in eukaryotic cells. The metabolic functions of these organelles can range from regulation of osmotic pressure and intracellular pH to calcium and energy storage. Foraminifera encode the genes required for both a polyphosphate, as well as a creatine phosphate metabolism. Creatine phosphate and polyphosphates are good energy carriers that can generate energy, when electron acceptors are depleted. Thus, storage of energetic P-compounds, such as creatine phosphate and polyphosphate, is likely also an adaptation of foraminifera to O2 depletion.

How to cite: Glock, N. and the Foram Phosphate Team: Widespread occurrence of phosphate storage in foraminifera might buffer anthropogenic eutrophication in coastal environments , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16170, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16170, 2025.

EGU25-16261 | Posters on site | BG4.3

Machine Learning for identification and classification of Foraminifera: testing on monothalamids 

Alessandra Negri, Anna Sabbatini, Francesca Caridi, and Domenico Potena

Here we propose an AI-based approach using Machine Learning (ML) to assist species identification and reduce morphotype redundancy in the study of monothalamous foraminifera. In fact, this group of protists, is often overlooked in taxonomic studies due to their morphological simplicity and diversity. These single-celled organisms with "soft" tests are poorly studied, with only a few species identified, while many morphotypes remain undescribed. Taxonomic research on monothalamids is limited by challenges in identification, lack of fossilization, and the time-intensive nature of the work. This gap may lead to underestimating biodiversity and hinder detecting ecosystem degradation. Despite these challenges, monothalamids play key roles in marine ecosystems, making their diversity crucial for conservation and resource management. With this in mind, we analyzed images from the scientific literature, extracting key morphological traits, such as chamber shape, shell type, composition, and aperture type, through objective human annotation to build a dataset processed by ML algorithms. Clustering techniques, such as K-Means, revealed that basic shape, followed by shell type and composition, were the primary features distinguishing clusters. This approach enabled more objective morphotype classification, improving consistency and reducing human bias. These findings align with recent taxonomic revisions and demonstrate that applying unsupervised ML methods enhances species identification accuracy and streamlines the analysis of high-dimensional datasets.

How to cite: Negri, A., Sabbatini, A., Caridi, F., and Potena, D.: Machine Learning for identification and classification of Foraminifera: testing on monothalamids, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16261, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16261, 2025.

EGU25-16513 | ECS | Posters on site | BG4.3

Manipulative temperature experiments with the foraminifer Sorites orbiculus using inoculated Symbiodiniaceae symbionts 

Adrian Schoerghofer, Lukas Theodor Timme, Sneha Manda, and Christiane Schmidt

The presence of algal symbionts in Large Benthic Foraminifera (LBF) facilitates the success of the group as important carbonate producers in the ocean. However, the symbiosis makes the holobiont more susceptible to heat stress. Modulating the foraminiferal host-symbiont relationship is one approach that could serve as an adaptation mechanism to elevated temperatures. Recently, a menthol-DCMU (3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea) bleaching method made investigations of host-symbiont combinations in foraminifera possible. Here, we performed a manipulative temperature experiment at three temperatures (25°C, 28°C, and 31°C) on the dinoflagellate-bearing Sorites orbiculus for two weeks. Before the experiment, specimens were menthol-DCMU bleached and inoculated with strains of Symbiodiniaceae (ITS2 strains: F2 sensu stricto, CCMP2467, and KB8) previously isolated from cnidarian hosts. Three controls, including untreated specimens, menthol-DCMU bleached specimens continuously treated with DCMU, and menthol-DCMU bleached specimens recovering in artificial seawater, were used. To assess the physiological impact of the treatments on the specimens, the survivorship and growth of the hosts, and the efficiency of photosystem II (Fv:Fm) of the symbionts were measured. Survivorship was between 75-100% based on PAM fluorescence values and light microscopy. Inoculated specimens with strain KB8 exhibited similar growth to the controls at 31°C. Contrastingly, strain CCMP2467 had lower growth than the controls at each temperature. Growth did not differ between the controls. PAM fluorometry revealed that photosynthetic yields (Fv:Fm) between the 25°C and 31°C treatments were not different between strains, while in the 28°C treatment, strain CCMP2467 showed low photosynthetic activity, indicating stress in the photosystems. Contrary to our expectations, menthol-DCMU bleached individuals continuously treated with DCMU, exhibited similar growth rates as untreated holobionts. The results suggest that S. orbiculus can sustain growth between a temperature range of 25°C to at least 31°C independently of a functional symbiosis. Further investigations are needed to gain insights into the host-symbiont relationship, the potential of its modulation as an adaptation mechanism to elevated temperatures, and the role of symbionts in the growth and calcification of foraminifera.

How to cite: Schoerghofer, A., Timme, L. T., Manda, S., and Schmidt, C.: Manipulative temperature experiments with the foraminifer Sorites orbiculus using inoculated Symbiodiniaceae symbionts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16513, 2025.

EGU25-16543 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Changing precipitation patterns affect nitrate input to and subsequent cycling in a subalpine lake 

Daniela V Machado, Astrid Harjung, Yuliya Vystavna, Stefan Terzer-Wassmuth, Martin J Kainz, and Leonard Wassenaar

Subalpine lakes are highly sensitive ecosystems that respond rapidly to variations in temperature, precipitation, and hydrological inputs triggered by climate change. These lakes are typically oligotrophic, and the availability of nutrients is highly dependent on nutrient loads with rainfall and runoff and further controlled by in-catchment processes. Altered precipitation patterns, rising (water) temperatures, and ice- and snow-free winters can significantly impact these ecosystems' water balance, stratification, and nutrient dynamics. Understanding these processes is critical, as small environmental changes can affect their biogeochemical cycles and biological communities. Although the effects of warming on subalpine lakes are recognized, the magnitude by which climate change impacts the water balance and nutrient dynamics in these ecosystems remains uncertain. Moreover, subalpine lakes, as part of the headwater catchment, impact water and nutrient availability downstream. In this context, water stable isotopes provide essential insights into the hydrological processes, helping to understand the water balance and mixing processes of lakes. Long-term data from subalpine Lake Lunz, Austria, indicate a decrease in nitrate concentrations (N−NO3) during the past decade. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of N−NO3 and stable water isotopes (δ18O−H2O and δ2H−H2O) during two hydrometeorological cycles. Samples were collected monthly from the inflow, outflow, epi-, meta-, and hypolimnion of the lake. Preliminary results showed that precipitation and snowmelt during spring significantly influenced lake water levels and nitrate inputs. Stable water isotope analyses revealed seasonal isotopic stratification, with higher values of δ18O−H2O in the epilimnion during summer following an isotopically enriched signal from the catchment. The hypolimnion exhibited stable isotopic values of water with minimal variation, suggesting limited vertical mixing. Nitrate concentrations in the inflow and the epilimnion were higher in winter and spring, coinciding with depleted isotopic values from the water molecule and suggesting snow melt as an essential source of N−NO3. On the other hand, the hypolimnion showed increased nitrate concentrations as stratification persisted and dissolved oxygen levels declined, possibly due to remineralization of organic matter from the thick layer of fine sediment at the bottom of the lake. These findings indicate the need to study the sensitivity of lake nutrient dynamics to variations in hydrological inputs during climate change.

How to cite: Machado, D. V., Harjung, A., Vystavna, Y., Terzer-Wassmuth, S., Kainz, M. J., and Wassenaar, L.: Changing precipitation patterns affect nitrate input to and subsequent cycling in a subalpine lake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16543, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16543, 2025.

EGU25-17878 | Orals | BG4.3

Fluocopée® probe deployment in the Seine river (France): Towards high-frequency in situ monitoring of aquatic environments using fluorescence spectrometry 

Antoine Raoult, Angélique Goffin, Vivien Raymond, Flavien Desbourdes, Metehan Yilmaz, Rania Krimou, Jérémy Mougin, Sabrina Guérin-Rechdaoui, Vincent Rocher, Sylvie Thibert, and Gilles Varrault

      Over the past two decades, there has been a notable advancement in the development of high-frequency measuring equipment for the monitoring of biophysical and chemical parameters in surface water. Optical probes, especially fluorescence probes, are of particular importance in the integration of high-frequency measurements into environmental monitoring. The joint development of the Fluocopée® probe by LEESU and SIAAP represents a further contribution to this dynamic. This innovative fluorescence probe is capable of monitoring temporal evolution of 25 fluorophores in situ at high frequency (every 15 minutes), thereby enabling the characterization of dissolved organic matter (DOM). The extensive range of fluorophores monitored by the Fluocopée® probe facilitates the monitoring of water quality and the investigation of the biogeochemical processes linked to DOM in aquatic environments. Furthermore, its sensitivity is compatible with the levels of OM concentration observed in continental aquatic environments.


      Since October 2023, several Fluocopée® probes have been implemented on the river Seine and its two main tributaries (the Marne and Oise rivers) at six sites upstream and downstream of the Paris conurbation (see Figure 1). This allows us to assess the spatial variability of organic matter in the river Seine across the Paris conurbation at a high temporal frequency and provides a valuable opportunity to enhance our comprehension of the organic matter biogeochemical dynamics in the river Seine as well as to assess the impact of urban pressures. The installation of Fluocopée® probes at sites already equipped (as part of the MeSeine monitoring system or drinking water treatment plants intakes) with numerous measuring devices has been shown to facilitate the interpretation of fluorescence data by providing supplementary information from the chronicles of other physicochemical parameters (pH, turbidity, dissolved O2, TSS, Abs254nm, fecal indicator bacteria etc.). 


      Furthermore, proxies for determining dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and its biodegradable fraction on the basis of fluorescence measurements have been developed in our laboratory. The development of these models was achieved by identifying the most suitable existing correlation between these physiochemical parameters and fluorescence measurements using various statistical algorithms (e.g., multilinear regressions, partial least squares regressions, machine learning algorithms, etc.). Used in association with Fluocopée®, these proxies provide estimation of these parameters at high frequency in addition to fluorescence measurements.


      The fluorescence, DOC and biodegradable DOC concentration measurements acquired at high frequency over a year using our monitoring system will be presented and discussed. The influence of the hydroclimatic situation and the impact of urban pressures on the organic matter dynamics in the Seine across Paris Conurbation will be assessed. Additionally, it will provide a detailed account of the methodology employed to process these data sets, from the initial acquisition of raw data to its subsequent validation.

Figure 1 : Implantation of Fluocopée® probes

How to cite: Raoult, A., Goffin, A., Raymond, V., Desbourdes, F., Yilmaz, M., Krimou, R., Mougin, J., Guérin-Rechdaoui, S., Rocher, V., Thibert, S., and Varrault, G.: Fluocopée® probe deployment in the Seine river (France): Towards high-frequency in situ monitoring of aquatic environments using fluorescence spectrometry, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17878, 2025.

EGU25-20020 | ECS | Orals | BG4.3

Ostracoda and Foraminifera as indicators of anthropogenic impacts – case studies from Sub-Saharan Africa 

Olga Schmitz, Mauro Alivernini, Lailah Gifty Akita, Jemma Finch, Trevor Hill, Torsten Haberzettl, and Peter Frenzel

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms, as a consequence of a changing climate, impact our coastal ecosystems. This impact is exacerbated by human-induced pressures which include: organic and contaminant pollution by agricultural activities, industry, urban sewage, and traffic threatening ecosystems and its services, and increasing human populations.

Within the two studied regions of Ghana and South Africa there is a paucity of effective water quality monitoring data, management, and strategies. With the changing climate and rising water demands, it is critical to maintain and restore water bodies to ensure their sustainable future. To achieve this objective, one of the methods is to apply bioindicators. Today, there is a growing global interest in using bioindicators for water quality monitoring, which can provide valuable insights into environmental conditions by analyzing the abundance, and species and population composition of bioindicator populations. Bioindicators provide an integrated and sensitive approach to environmental monitoring by capturing the cumulative effects of contaminants over time, and by revealing indirect biotic effects and bioaccumulation that may be missed by traditional chemical and physical measurements.

We present the first comprehensive investigation of marginal marine Ostracoda and Foraminifera in Ghana, shedding light on their ecology and distribution in western Africa. Elevated Foraminiferal Abnormality Index (FAI) values correlate with high heavy metal concentrations and variable salinity, suggesting pollution-induced abnormalities. Certain taxa, such as Quinqueloculina sp., Ammonia sp., and Cyprideis remanei dominate in contaminated areas, due to their tolerance to various pollutants. This study reveals a positive correlation between organic matter content and faunal diversity, contrary to typical pollution-diversity trends, likely influenced by salinity and allochthonous inputs. Heavy metal concentrations exceed thresholds near settlements, indicating significant anthropogenic pollution. Despite the pollution, higher diversity is observed, particularly in sites with marine-like salinity, suggesting complex responses to mixed effects to salinity or hydrographical effects and heavy metals.

Furthermore, we conducted a study on the uMlalazi river, South Africa, where, despite previous assumptions regarding the river’s pristine condition, we found high pollution, emphasizing the need for a continuous monitoring strategy. For assessing pollution and ecological health, we focused on Foraminifera and Ostracoda. We identified 17 ostracod species and 19 foraminifer species. Three distinct assemblages correlated with varying salinity and Pollution Load Index (PLI) levels. Our findings support the common trend of reduced species diversity with increased pollution. FAI correlated with PLI, showing that malformations where predominantly anthropogenically driven. Geochemical analysis indicated significant anthropogenic pressure, with elevated concentrations of heavy metals, sulphur, and microplastics from human induced activities such as sugarcane farming, urban sewages, fish farming and unknown sources.

Our studies emphasize the potential of Ostracoda and Foraminifera as indicators of environmental pressure and stresses, and a call for a more complete datasets to establish clearer correlations between meiofaunal associations and pollution effects.

How to cite: Schmitz, O., Alivernini, M., Akita, L. G., Finch, J., Hill, T., Haberzettl, T., and Frenzel, P.: Ostracoda and Foraminifera as indicators of anthropogenic impacts – case studies from Sub-Saharan Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20020, 2025.

EGU25-20615 | Orals | BG4.3

Modeling Benthic Foraminiferal Diversity in the Arabian Gulf: Species Distribution and Environmental Controls in a Basin-Wide Assessment 

Abduljamiu Amao, Khalid Al-Ramadan, Michael Kaminski, and Fabrizio Frontalini

Using extensive datasets of benthic foraminiferal occurrences, we investigate spatial patterns of species diversity across the Arabian Gulf and assess how environmental gradients influence these distributions through species distribution modeling approaches. We evaluate the effectiveness of stacked species distribution models in predicting foraminiferal diversity patterns and identifying potential diversity hotspots across the Arabian Gulf basin. We compiled a comprehensive dataset of benthic foraminiferal occurrences from published literature and public databases, encompassing more than 492 species from nine orders. Using an ensemble of species distribution models, we predict the spatial patterns of individual species and stack these predictions to estimate foraminiferal species richness across the basin. We validated model predictions using independent datasets and assessed the relative importance of environmental variables. Our stacked species distribution models showed high performance (mean AUC > 0.94, TSS > 0.8, Kappa > 0.82), revealing a clear north-south gradient in foraminiferal species richness. The highest diversity was observed in the northern part of the Gulf, contrasting with typical latitudinal diversity gradients. Bathymetry and dissolved oxygen emerged as primary drivers of foraminiferal distributions (10.50% and 8.55% contribution respectively), followed by iron concentration and salinity. The eastern part of the Gulf displayed higher diversity compared to the western regions, likely reflecting the influence of the counterclockwise circulation pattern. Our study provides the first basin-wide assessment of benthic foraminiferal diversity in the Arabian Gulf, revealing complex spatial patterns and environmental relationships. The models' ability to delineate species-specific niches and environmental gradients enables efficient prediction of species responses to climate-driven changes. This approach establishes a robust baseline for monitoring ecosystem shifts and offers valuable insights for both paleoenvironmental reconstructions and future targeted studies in this extreme marine environment.

How to cite: Amao, A., Al-Ramadan, K., Kaminski, M., and Frontalini, F.: Modeling Benthic Foraminiferal Diversity in the Arabian Gulf: Species Distribution and Environmental Controls in a Basin-Wide Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20615, 2025.

EGU25-21176 | Posters on site | BG4.3

First detection of azaspiracid-2 in shellfish from the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea 

Romana Roje-Busatto, Ivana Ujević, Antonija Bulić, Stjepan Orhanović, Ivana Pezelj, and Tanja Bogdanović

Due to the ubiquitous anthropogenic and climatic changes altering the marine habitat and ecology of biotoxin producers, the aim of this study was to assess the risk of human consumption associated with the accumulation of lipophilic toxins in the commercially important bivalve mollusc (mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis Lamarck, 1819) in the Krka River estuary located in the central part of the Croatian Adriatic Sea coast. Shellfish samples were collected weekly at three sampling stations during 2024, with a focus on monitoring lipophilic biotoxins. This study confirmed the first occurrence of the azaspiracid biotoxin, namely azaspiracid-2 (AZA-2), in shellfish from the Croatian part of the eastern Adriatic Sea coast. However, the toxicity only occurred in the first five months of the investigated year, as no AZA-2 toxin could be detected in shellfish sampled after May. Shellfish soft tissue samples were subjected to liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS) analysis to determine the presence of okadaic acid, dinophysistoxins, pectenotoxins, azaspiracids, yessotoxins and spirolides. The presence of lipophilic toxins in the samples was confirmed by comparing the retention times in the chromatograms and the fragmentation spectra with those of certified reference materials from the National Research Council, Canada. In particular, levels of azaspiracid-2 in the range of 0.03 -146.90 µg/kg were determined. The highest AZA-2 concentrations were found in the January samples. Thereafter, the concentrations showed a decreasing trend until the end of May, when they were no longer detected for the rest of the year. The concentration of this toxin was below the maximum permitted level in all samples in accordance with the EU regulation. Azaspiracids (AZAs) are a group of polyether compounds with a spirocyclic structure that can cause symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and stomach cramps in humans. This is the first report on the occurrence of AZA-2 in the Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea and proves that the occurrence of lipophilic biotoxins needs to be further investigated and monitored in order to protect public health, but also with regard to aquaculture activities and their socio-economic benefits.

How to cite: Roje-Busatto, R., Ujević, I., Bulić, A., Orhanović, S., Pezelj, I., and Bogdanović, T.: First detection of azaspiracid-2 in shellfish from the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21176, 2025.

Despite far-reaching legal regulations and extensive management measures, nitrogen and phosphorus are still elevated in many river systems causing the degradation of ecosystems and the failure to achieve good ecological status following the EU-WFD. Our study analyzes the long-term change in nitrogen surpluses, and quantifies the denitrification rates as well as the residence time in soil and groundwater. The goal is to assess the effect and the time lag of management measures and to evaluate the achievability of environmental goals, e.g. EU-WFD or EU-MSFD. 

The calculations were carried out with a completely revised version of the widely applied nutrient emission model “MONERIS” with a resolution of 1 km x 1 km on a monthly basis from 2003 to 2020 for all German rivers including their hydrologically connected catchment areas in neighboring countries. The runoff and residence times were modeled using an integrated precipitation-runoff model and the retention processes in soil and groundwater were calculated via a coupled three-layer denitrification module, based on soil characteristics such as pH, soil texture, soil temperature, leakage water concentration. The effect of oxygen-reduced conditions in soils is represented by the water saturation.

The residence time in the soil ranges usually between a few days and a month, with local peaks of up to several months. The residence time in groundwater shows strong spatial variations. It ranges between less than 5 years and more than 100 years, however, for the N-balance history, a maximum of 50 years was taken into account. Although longer residence times generally lead to higher total denitrification, the rates are strongly controlled by local site characteristics such as pH value, N leachate concentration and soil texture. 

Due to the highly variable denitrification rates (< 1 – 92 kg/ha/yr, mean 44.1 kg/ha/yr), nitrogen emissions vary despite resulting from similar N surpluses. However, the proportions of the emission pathways surface runoff, interflow, and groundwater determined both the total emissions due to different denitrification rates as well as the resulting average lag time between fertilizer application and nutrients entering a surface water. Locally, the total residence time as mean over all pathways is determined by the proportions of runoff components and the respective residence times involved. Whereas areas with a high proportion of direct runoff and sealed urban areas react within months or even days, the lag time in surface waters results as a runoff-weighted average of local residence time in its upstream reaches.

The management to reach environmental quality goals and the need to rapidly reduce N surpluses and N concentrations in surface waters require comprehensible links between reduction measures and their effects on concentrations in surface waters. Our results indicate that the efficiency of measures to reduce nutrient concentrations in surface waters should not be assessed solely on the basis of the quantitative reduction potential, but also taking into account the time component. This also opens up the possibility of achieving a higher level of acceptance among the public and politicians if the time delays are known and considered during implementation.

How to cite: Venohr, M. and Oprei, A.: Implications of nitrogen legacy on the effectiveness of management measures in central European river catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21186, 2025.

EGU25-2251 | Posters on site | BG8.2

Quantifying Carbon Absorption of Riverine Wetlands and Proposing Restoration Scenarios 

Hoyong Lee, Soojun Kim, Kyunghun Kim, and Jaeseung Seo

Riverine wetlands are reservoirs of biodiversity and provide various ecological functions, including carbon absorption. However, they have been subjected to continuous degradation and loss due to river management practices focused on irrigation and flood control. This study aims to quantify the carbon absorption capacity of riverine wetlands and propose strategies for their restoration and management. To achieve this, a laboratory-scale wetland model was developed, and carbon absorption rates were analyzed under varying hydrological conditions. The results revealed that while methane emissions increased under inundation conditions, the absorption of carbon dioxide increased even more significantly. When assessed using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) metric, the overall carbon absorption capacity was found to improve. Wetlands were spatially categorized into waterside wetlands (outside the levee) and landside wetlands (inside the levee) to establish a carbon absorption assessment framework. This framework was used to evaluate restoration needs and propose tailored restoration scenarios for each wetland type. For waterside wetlands, strategies were suggested to regulate carbon absorption based on inundation zones and hydrological characteristics. For landside wetlands, a model was developed to enhance carbon absorption through the creation of carbon forests using Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and biochar application. Additionally, the carbon cycle was established as a closed system, termed the "Carbon-Closing System," to promote sustainability. This study provides standardized models and evaluation frameworks for carbon-neutral riverine wetlands, advancing technologies for wetland creation, restoration, and management while contributing to climate change mitigation and ecological value enhancement.

 

Keywords: Carbon Absorption, Hydrological Conditions, Restoration Scenarios, Riverine Wetlands

 

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry&Technology Institute through Wetland Ecosystem Value Evaluation and Carbon Absorption Value Promotion Technology Development Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(2022003630001)

How to cite: Lee, H., Kim, S., Kim, K., and Seo, J.: Quantifying Carbon Absorption of Riverine Wetlands and Proposing Restoration Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2251, 2025.

Land management interventions such as forest management have gained significant traction in the last few years as instruments in increasing carbon sequestration in working lands of the United States. Indeed, storing carbon in forests has been identified as a key nature-based solution pathway. While the importance of forest management in maintaining and potentially enhancing the terrestrial carbon sinks has been well established, carbon as a management objective in the practical context of silviculture and forest management is a relatively new concept. Yet a new emissions trading market, the Voluntary Carbon Offset Market in California, has been dominated by offsets originating from managed forests. Furthermore, almost two hundred million forest carbon offsets have been issued through the California Cap-and-Trade Program and Voluntary Offset Market, yet little information is available on the practical forest management applied in these projects. Finally, in 2021, California passed Senate Bill (SB-155) allocating $2.5 billion in state funding for forest resilience and wildfire prevention, but as of now, lacks a universal framework for transparently assessing the carbon benefits (i.e., additionality) claimed by forest carbon offset projects.

Within the offset markets context, improved forest management (IFM) has been identified as one of the forestry-related land management pathways with significant climate change mitigation potential. Currently, IFM is loosely defined and how it translates into practical forestry and connects to sustainable forest management (i.e., best management practices) as a whole has not been identified in detail. Our novel analysis of the offset market in California reveals that while improved forest management is the most credited project type in the California market, existing projects vary to a great degree in their disclosure about the planned or completed forest management activities for the project area. Our research has found several gaps and research and policy needs—particularly related to forest practices considered improved forest management, forest carbon offset additionality and permanence—and finally, highlights a pressing need for policy instruments to support and oversee these efforts.

How to cite: Kaarakka, L., Rothey, J., Cornett, M., and Dee, L.: Forests, forest management and climate change – understanding the existing forest offset market and its connection to practical forest management in the United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2950, 2025.

EGU25-3721 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Me4soc: a multi-model ensemble interface for soil organic carbon predictions 

Elisa Bruni, Aleksi Lehtonen, and Bertrand Guenet

Model predictions are paramount to understanding climate and land management effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in forests. However, SOC models remain highly uncertain, and multi-model ensembles can be used to evaluate the level of uncertainty of the predictions due to model choice. One major barrier to the use of multiple models is data availability and the time-scale consistency across models.

In this work, we present me4soc, a Multi-model Ensemble interface For Soil Organic Carbon predictions. This open-source software offers a complete environment to launch six SOC models widely used by the soil community to predict the dynamics of SOC stocks and GHG fluxes (CO2, CH4, and N2O) in forests. It allows users to explore the effect of nature-based climate solutions over multiple decades under climate and land-use changes. The models can be run with either user-provided observational data or data automatically extracted from large-scale open-source datasets for the European region. Available earth system model predictions are used to simulate climate and land-use change scenarios. The tool has been developed in Shiny, a R-based package for simple web application developments.

The obtained results showed the ability of me4soc to simulate the temporal dynamics of SOC stocks and GHG emissions at site-scale under different climate, land-use, and land management change scenarios. Employing multiple models based on different mathematical structures offers a unique opportunity to estimate the uncertainties in the predictions associated with differences in the model structure.

This tool can be applied by the scientific community, forest managers, and policymakers to acquire scientifically-based information about the effects of forest management and disturbances on SOC stocks and GHG emissions. It is an important step towards the use of state-of-the-art models and large-scale datasets to improve model predictions and assess their uncertainties. The software's systematic validation with observational data and parameter optimization to improve model fit are the key priorities of future work. Further software developments to cover other ecosystems (e.g., croplands and grasslands) and data-less sites outside of Europe are also foreseen.

How to cite: Bruni, E., Lehtonen, A., and Guenet, B.: Me4soc: a multi-model ensemble interface for soil organic carbon predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3721, 2025.

EGU25-4808 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2

Nitrous oxide emission hotspots in temporarily flooded cropland depressions: year-round measurements and regional estimation 

Peiyan Wang, Sarah Kylborg, Xiaoye Tong, Bo Elberling, and Per Ambus

Temporarily flooded depressions within cropland have been identified as substantial hotspots of nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, releasing up to 80 times more N2O than surrounding field areas during the flooded period. Despite their significant contribution, the temporal dynamics of N₂O emissions from these depressions and their impact on regional annual N₂O budgets remain inadequately quantified. The primary drivers of these high emissions are poorly understood, limiting the accuracy of regional estimates and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

To address this knowledge gap, we established two elevation transects in two Danish croplands, each comprising five positions (0, 1, 2, 3, 4; with three replicate plots per position) along a slope gradient from depressions to the uphill areas. Biweekly in-situ N₂O flux measurements were conducted at each plot over a year (March 2020 to March 2021) using static chambers. Concurrently, soil samples were collected for laboratory analysis of physicochemical properties along with each field measurement, and soil water content and temperature were monitored at 30-minute intervals in the depression areas. Additionally, daily photographs of each transect were captured using installed cameras, and daily remote sensing images at 3-m resolution (PlanetScope) were utilized to evaluate relative wetness for each plot. Based on the field data, daily photos, and relative wetness, the study year was divided into three distinct periods:  flooded period (with water above the soil surface), flood recover period (characterized by high soil water content typically after flooding), and drained period (with comparable soil moisture between depression and uphill areas).

Our results reveal significant spatial and temporal variability in N₂O fluxes along the transects. Positions within the depressions exhibited significantly higher annual mean N₂O fluxes, ranging from 93.4 to 204.6 µg N₂O m⁻² h⁻¹, compared to 20.6 to 58.2 µg N₂O m⁻² h⁻¹ in the transition areas and 12.1 to 26.4 µg N₂O m⁻² h⁻¹ in the uphill areas. Temporally, flood recover period in depressions showed the highest N₂O fluxes compared to any other periods, whereas the uphill areas maintained consistent emissions throughout the year. Annual cumulative N₂O emissions from positions within the depressions were estimated to be 0.64 to 1.5 g N₂O m⁻², significantly higher than the emissions of 0.16 to 0.39 N₂O m⁻² from transition areas and 0.09 to 0.27 g N₂O m⁻² from uphill areas. Regionally, although depressions cover less than 1% of the total cultivated area, they contribute approximately 10% to the total annual N₂O emissions. Our analysis identified soil moisture and temperature as key drivers for the spatial and temporal variabilities in N₂O emissions along the transects. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating high-emitting depressions into local and regional N₂O inventories to improve the accuracy of agricultural greenhouse gas estimates and inform the development of effective mitigation strategies.

How to cite: Wang, P., Kylborg, S., Tong, X., Elberling, B., and Ambus, P.: Nitrous oxide emission hotspots in temporarily flooded cropland depressions: year-round measurements and regional estimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4808, 2025.

EGU25-7574 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2 | Highlight

Scalable quantification of agroecosystem carbon budget and crop yield based on knowledge-guided machine learning 

Wang Zhou, Licheng Liu, Kaiyu Guan, Zhenong Jin, Bin Peng, and Sheng Wang

Quantifying carbon outcomes from agroecosystems plays an important role in mitigating global warming and ensuring food security through sustainable production. However, high spatial-temporal-resolution (e.g., ~100m, daily), accurate, well-resolved carbon budgets and crop yield in agroecosystems are extremely challenging to quantify due to the complexity of involved processes and large variations in environmental and management drivers. Traditional process-based-modeling approaches are computationally expensive to achieve field-scale resolution and contain large uncertainty due to underdetermined model structure and parameters. Knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) is a hybrid modeling approach that leverages recent advances in machine learning combined with known physical principles and relationships to enhance the training and application processes, which helps open the “black box” of conventional ML models, and enable better predictions that capture variability in both time and space. Here we proposed a data-efficient KGML framework that effectively predicts daily variations in agricultural CO2 emissions, crop yields, and soil carbon storage at field scale, as successfully demonstrated for the US Midwest. Multi-source data and pretraining with outputs from a well-validated agroecosystem model were incorporated into a hierarchically structured deep learning neural network that greatly outperformed both process-based and pure machine learning models, especially in data-limited cases. This work demonstrates the advantages of integrating domain knowledge with state-of-the-art artificial intelligence in agroecosystem modeling that will lead toward broader use of KGML in geoscience.

How to cite: Zhou, W., Liu, L., Guan, K., Jin, Z., Peng, B., and Wang, S.: Scalable quantification of agroecosystem carbon budget and crop yield based on knowledge-guided machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7574, 2025.

EGU25-7672 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Revisiting the role of China’s protected areas in carbon storage  

Shuhan Wang, Jian Peng, Yifan Lin, and Tao Hu

It is widely expected that conservation efforts within protected areas (PAs) can achieve multiple conservation objectives simultaneously. PAs established primarily for biodiversity conservation also contribute to increasing carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the role of China’s existing PAs in carbon storage protection. We proposed an integrated approach to estimate the carbon density of terrestrial ecosystems in China, based on a modified InVEST model. Through a statistical matching method, we evaluated the effectiveness of PAs in conserving carbon storage during 2020-2050. Under the moderate emission scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5), the average carbon density of PAs was projected to increase to 168.3 Mg C ha-1, a 14.2% rise compared to 2020. In contrast, under the low emission scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and high emission scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), the average carbon density of PAs was projected to decrease by 4.8% and 4.6%, respectively. By 2050, approximately 45%-47% of PAs were expected to be effective in conserving carbon storage, with about 80% of PAs experiencing no change in effectiveness during 2020-2050. Additionally, 34.3%-36.2% of the areas of PAs remained effective, while 1.8%-4.0% were projected to transition from ineffective to effective. PAs effective in conserving carbon storage were predominantly located in humid, mid-to-high-altitude regions. Given the spatial mismatch among existing PAs, priority areas for carbon storage protection and effective areas for carbon storage protection, our findings underscored the necessity of expanding China’s PA system to expand the additional benefits of PAs in conserving carbon storage.

How to cite: Wang, S., Peng, J., Lin, Y., and Hu, T.: Revisiting the role of China’s protected areas in carbon storage , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7672, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7672, 2025.

Accurate large-scale crop yield estimation is increasingly critical for agricultural management and understanding the dynamics of food security under climate change. The complex nature of crop growth, influenced by multiple environmental factors across temporal scales, requires advanced approaches for yield prediction. While recent advances in remote sensing provide diverse data sources for enhanced crop monitoring capabilities, effectively integrating heterogeneous data sources at large scales remains challenging for accurate yield prediction. In this study, we developed a temporal multi-modal fusion framework for soft wheat yield prediction at the sub-national level across the European Union from 2001 to 2019. Our framework integrated time-series data from optical remote sensing observations, climate data, and vegetation productivity indicators, along with static soil properties. A Transformer encoder was used to extract temporal patterns of crop growth, and the temporal features were fused with soil features to capture spatial patterns for large-scale wheat yield prediction. The proposed framework achieved much better performance (RMSE = 0.75 t·ha-1) compared with benchmark models including LSTM (RMSE = 0.82 t·ha-1) and Random Forest (RMSE = 1.09 t·ha-1). The study indicates that late fusion strategies are more effective in preserving modality-specific temporal patterns, enhancing the accuracy by 5.9% (RMSE) compared to early fusion. Ablation studies reveal the incremental benefits of multi-modal data integration, with soil properties notably improving prediction performance by 15.0-23.9% (RMSE). Feature importance analysis through explainable machine learning indicates that remote-sensing-related variables contribute more significantly to yield prediction than climatic variables.  The novel multi-modal fusion framework developed in this study for large-scale crop yield prediction provides insights into understanding crop-environment relationships in wheat yield formation.

How to cite: Lin, Z., Guan, K., and Wang, S.: Temporal Multi-modal Fusion Framework for Predicting Wheat Yield across the EU from Multi-source Satellite and Environmental Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7753, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7753, 2025.

EGU25-8055 | Posters on site | BG8.2

Cross-scale Sensing of Field-level Essential Agroecosystem Variables for the EU Climate-smart Agriculture 

Sheng Wang, Kaiyu Guan, Jørgen E. Olesen, Rui Zhou, Zhiju Lu, Zhixian Lin, Sijia Feng, René Gislum, Claire Treat, and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

Climate-smart agriculture aims to implement a suite of conservation management practices, such as cover crops, reduced tillage, smart irrigation and crop rotations, to maximize agroecosystem productivity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Timely and high-resolution agriculture data are crucial for measuring, reporting and verifying the implementation and benefits of climate-smart agriculture practices. However, agricultural data collection through field sampling, laboratory analysis, and/or grower surveys is time-consuming and costly. To address these challenges, we developed an artificial intelligence-empowered cross-scale sensing framework to integrate multi-source ground truth data with multi-modal satellite Earth observations to quantify high spatial and temporal information of essential agroecosystem variables in the EU. Specifically, these essential variables include crop types, harvest time, tillage practices, cover crop adoption and biomass, crop yield, soil moisture, ecosystem gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration. We developed computer vision and machine learning algorithms to obtain ground truth data from in-situ measurements, citizen sciences, census surveys, and ground or aerial vehicle system data. Through process-guided machine learning (PGML), we integrated the domain knowledge of soil-vegetation radiative transfer models and ground truth data to accurately quantify these essential variables from Sentinel-1, 2, 3 and SMAP satellite data. This study highlights the potential of integrating cross-scale sensing and PGML to quantify essential ecosystem variables to support climate-smart agriculture.

How to cite: Wang, S., Guan, K., E. Olesen, J., Zhou, R., Lu, Z., Lin, Z., Feng, S., Gislum, R., Treat, C., and Butterbach-Bahl, K.: Cross-scale Sensing of Field-level Essential Agroecosystem Variables for the EU Climate-smart Agriculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8055, 2025.

EGU25-8696 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Improving satellite microwave sensing of global soil moisture via radiative transfer process-guided machine learning 

Sijia Feng, Aoyang Li, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Majken C. Looms, Kaiyu Guan, Claire Treat, Christian Igel, and Sheng Wang

Accurately estimating top ~5 cm surface soil moisture (SM) is highly valuable for understanding the terrestrial water cycle. Based on the zero-order τ-ω radiative transfer model (RTM), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has provided daily global surface SM estimations at 9 km spatial resolution using L-band (1.41 GHz) radiometry since April 2015. As the parameterization of RTM for SMAP's official algorithm highly relies on in-situ measurements, SMAP SM has weaker performance in regions with few calibration sites. To improve the accuracy of global SM estimations, we developed a new radiative transfer Process-Guided Machine Learning (PGML) method, which integrates the mechanistic understanding of RTM and data-driven machine learning approaches to estimate global SM. We generated a synthetic dataset from RTM and developed a pre-trained PGML to quantify SM by using this synthetic dataset. Furthermore, we utilized SM measurements at 1131 in-situ sites collected from International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) during April 2015 and December 2023 across the globe to fine-tune PGML. The validation result shows that the estimated  9-km daily PGML global SM has a good agreement with in-situ SM measurements from ISMN. Our model has significantly better performance on estimating global SM  than the SM retrievals from RTM (R from 0.413 to 0.636, RMSE from 0.132 to 0.100 m3/m3, bias from 0.042 to 0.001 m3/m3, ubRMSE from 0.125 to 0.100 m3/m3). This study highlights the potential of PGML to integrate machine learning and radiative transfer models for accurate remote sensing of SM at the global scale.

How to cite: Feng, S., Li, A., Butterbach-Bahl, K., C. Looms, M., Guan, K., Treat, C., Igel, C., and Wang, S.: Improving satellite microwave sensing of global soil moisture via radiative transfer process-guided machine learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8696, 2025.

EGU25-9828 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Advancing understanding of sustainable production on livestock farms: The importance of accurately assessing upland soil carbon stocks  

Laura Giles, Phil Scott, Jess Davies, Jan Bebbington, and John Quinton

Whilst it is generally understood that grasslands are able to store significant amounts of carbon and that much of our degraded agricultural soil has capacity to build carbon stocks and potentially mitigate on-farm emissions, to date, the greater focus of studies has been on the response of lowland grassland soil carbon to management practices. In contrast, comprehension of current and potential soil carbon stocks in heterogeneric ‘upland’ or marginal farmed environments is currently lacking, and the potential for sustainable livestock production to deliver increased soil carbon sequestration unsubstantiated. With upland farming systems producing 29% and 44% of breeding cows and sheep respectively, understanding the impact of changes in upland livestock management on soil carbon is critical to ensure future land management scenarios are environmentally positive and can sustain food production.

We aim to address this knowledge gap by combining field surveys of soil carbon concentrations and stocks with modelling of potential soil carbon change under nutrient, land use and climate change scenarios using the process-based N14CP model. In this contribution we will present the empirical data and carbon modelling results.

Three 'upland' livestock farms in Cumbria, UK were chosen as representative of diversity of parent material, climate, topography and livestock farming practices. Pedogenic-stratified random sampling of the top 0 – 30cm soil at a rate of 1 sample per 2 hectares; ≥5 metres apart was conducted July-September 2024. Samples were assessed for bulk density (corrected for coarse fragments ≥2mm) and carbon concentration (by dry combustion).

Preliminary analyses suggest high spatial variation in bulk density, soil carbon concentration and stocks within and between farms, reflecting the heterogeneity of ‘upland’ environments. Our sampling approach demonstrates that detecting change in soil carbon empirically, with confidence, is unlikely to be possible in these diverse landscapes, with implications for predicting carbon sequestration potential as climate mitigation.

How to cite: Giles, L., Scott, P., Davies, J., Bebbington, J., and Quinton, J.: Advancing understanding of sustainable production on livestock farms: The importance of accurately assessing upland soil carbon stocks , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9828, 2025.

EGU25-11022 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2

Estimating the carbon dioxide removal potential of alley-cropping agroforestry systems in Germany 

Stephen Björn Wirth, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller

Agroforestry (AF) refers to a wide range of agricultural practices that incorporate woody plants into crop- and grasslands. Agroforestry systems (AFS) can be distinguished by their share of trees and their spatial allocation, the selection of tree species, and tree management. While AFS are common in the global south to promote soil fertility, reduce heat stress and improve the water balance, they are less common in the global north. Currently, AFS are discussed as a nature-based solution for terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Here, alley-cropping AFS are a promising system because their tree cover is sufficiently large for significant CDR rates and they are still compatible with the use of agricultural machinery that is common in modern agricultural practices. However, estimating the large-scale CDR potential of AFS is challenging because of the variety of potential systems whose performance strongly depends on environmental conditions.

We study the CDR potential of AFS by extending the process based dynamic global vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) to represent alley-cropping AFS on cropland. The model explicitly accounts for shading effects of tree rows depending on row and tree distance and row orientation as well as the competition for soil water and nutrients between trees and crops. As an example for potential model applications, we assessed the future CDR potential of timber alley-cropping AFS for Germany assuming a moderate linear annual increase of AF areas by 0.5% of the total cropland area until 2060 and a moderate tree cover.

With the process-based representation of AFS in LPJmL, the model can be applied to study carbon, water, and nitrogen fluxes and pools of different alley-cropping AFS and conventional cropping systems at large spatial scales, including maximum carbon sequestration rates, potential equilibrium states and reversibility.

How to cite: Wirth, S. B., Rolinski, S., and Müller, C.: Estimating the carbon dioxide removal potential of alley-cropping agroforestry systems in Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11022, 2025.

EGU25-14513 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2

Balancing Productivity and Climate Impact: Climate-Smart Potential of Irrigation Practices 

Shashank Kumar Anand, Rishabh Singh, Binayak Mohanty, Lorenzo Rosa, Nithya Rajan, and Salvatore Calabrese

Traditional agricultural practices have placed unsustainable pressures on soils, resulting in degraded soil health and losses in biodiversity and fertility. Modern agriculture faces the dual challenge of increasing productivity while building resilience to climate change, particularly in water-scarce regions where crop productivity is at risk. Recognizing the potential of agricultural soils as a nature-based climate solution, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) offers a transformative strategy by integrating conservation practices and efficient water management to enhance soil health and mitigate climate impacts. From an irrigation perspective, this necessitates a comprehensive framework to holistically evaluate practices, moving beyond traditional objectives of maximizing yield and water use efficiency. In this study, we develop a multi-objective optimization framework for climate-smart irrigation (CSI), whereby a dual-index system evaluates irrigation systems (e.g., drip, sprinkler) and strategies (e.g., stress-avoidance, deficit irrigation) across productivity and climate impact dimensions. We first demonstrate the application of this framework by analyzing field studies of different crops (such as wheat and rice), irrigation practices and soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emission compositions, showing how the new indices jointly identify optimal irrigation practices. Additionally, using an ensemble of crop model simulations for corn production using irrigation across major U.S. production regions under varying climate and soil conditions, we explore trade-offs between productivity and climate impact goals. Results reveal a spectrum of Pareto-optimal irrigation practices that balance these dual objectives. These insights underscore the importance of holistic approaches in CSI and are critical for providing actionable insights into nature-based climate solutions in agricultural ecosystems.

How to cite: Anand, S. K., Singh, R., Mohanty, B., Rosa, L., Rajan, N., and Calabrese, S.: Balancing Productivity and Climate Impact: Climate-Smart Potential of Irrigation Practices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14513, 2025.

More Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and related, new farming practices are needed to promote the green transition of agriculture, and to reach the policy targets set in relation to environmental protection, biodiversity preservation, climate change adaptation and mitigation in combination with a sustainable agricultural production. This issue is addressed in a series of research and innovation projects, including the pan-European and China related trans4num.eu Horizon Europe project, and the Sustainscpes.org and Land-CRAFT.dk research centers.
This paper outlines the research-based development of a Decision Support System (DSS), coupled with farm models and data, for farmers and multiple stakeholders to prioritize and implement more NbS in their practices, and thereby meet targets set. Special focus is put on agricultural nutrient management. A new point for innovation is that the DSS should be able to operate at the landscape scale, together with central NatureBased solutions, and thereby used in new types of catchment scale advisory services, relevant to both farmers and other industry related decision makers, as well as for policy development.     
NbS measures of particular relevance for the Limfjorden study area are selected (incl. conversion from rotational crops to more permanent crops, in particular more grassland, and related new types of crop rotations). Innovative methods for landscape scale data collection are developed (based on digital farm data sources and remote sensing techniques), and the multiple stakeholder DSS design is developed though workshops in collaboration with local stakeholders, and demonstration of the landscape scale data collected. 
Results are presented in the form of solution scenarios for green transitions in the Limfjorden catchment, based on the selected NbS, and the DSS components developed. GIS-based maps are used to illustrate the potentials and implications for farmers as well as local, regional, national and international decision-makers are discussed. Feedbacks to the implications for local farming system development are collected, and potentials and further research needs for upscaling and similar applications in other sites across Europe and beyond are synthesized and discussed.

How to cite: Dalgaard, T.: Decision support for Nature-based Solutions in agricultural nutrient management – Green transition scenarios demonstrated for the landscapes around Limfjorden, Denmark, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15083, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15083, 2025.

EGU25-15993 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

A review of whole-farm models - gaps in the literature, links to landscape-level modelling and assessments of Nature-Based Solutions 

Fabio Delle Grazie, Nicholas Hutchings, Tommy Dalgaard, and Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

This article contains a review of whole-farm models for the description of nutrient cycles and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying research needs for the assessment of Nature-based Solutions for reduced emissions, occurring at the interface between the farm and the landscape level. The review thereby aims to give an overview of the state of the art of farm-level models and highlight gaps in the literature with the view of integrating whole-farm models into landscape-level modelling and assessments. The review covers peer-reviewed articles published in the period between 1980 and April 2024, captured in the Web of Science and Scopus databases, as well as using the snowballing method. Google scholar was also used to gather the relevant articles. The articles were described using several characteristics, such as country of origin, year published and complexity of the model. Dynamic process-based models were the most used, particularly the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM and the Integrated Farm System, IFSM, with life cycle assessment (LCA) also being widely used. Dairy and beef farms were the most studied farm types, with most studies published from the USA, followed by Australia and New Zealand; however significant gaps were identified regarding complete whole farm models, including all parts of the farming systems, and links to the landscape level modelling needed to assess key Nature-Based Solutions to reduce emissions from agriculture. The review allowed to highlight these gaps, which will be illustrated by examples from Denmark and studies related to the Land-CRAFT.dk Pioneer Center for Landscape Research in Sustainable Agricultural Futures. The tools most used for the assessment of Nature-based Solutions are also highlighted.

How to cite: Delle Grazie, F., Hutchings, N., Dalgaard, T., and Butterbach-Bahl, K.: A review of whole-farm models - gaps in the literature, links to landscape-level modelling and assessments of Nature-Based Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15993, 2025.

EGU25-16922 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Assessment of climate mitigation potential of French grasslands using the land surface model ORCHIDEE-GM 

Emilio Baud Fraile, Jinfeng Chang, Eric Ceschia, Katja Klumpp, Pierre Mischler, Nicolas Viovy, and Ronny Lauerwald

There is now growing awareness that agricultural land use impacts climate not only through its GHG budget, but also through albedo-mediated changes of the surface energy budget. For instance, grasslands have higher surface albedo (i.e. more incoming solar radiation is reflected instead of being adsorbed and transferred into heat) than forage crops especially during the fallow period.

The project ALBAATRE-Systèmes focuses on reducing the climate impact of forage systems by increasing the share of grassland and by adapting land management practices to increase surface albedo. For this, extensive experimental data is collected from a network of experimental farms from IDELE across France as well as at ICOS flux tower sites. At the same time a modelling framework is being developed to upscale the experimental data at the scale of France. For this task, we use the land surface model ORCHIDEE-GM (Chang et al., 2013), which represents a branch of the global land surface model ORCHIDEE (Krinner et al., 2005) that incorporates main features of the grassland management model PaSim (Riedo et al., 1998). This model is used to study the impact on production and climate of grasslands management such as grazing, fertilization and cutting. At present, however, it has a very simplistic surface albedo description.

Therefore, this study intends to improve albedo formalisms in ORCHIDEE-GM v3.2 in order to better take into account the seasonal and structural changes of different grassland types in France. To evaluate the model, we will use the in-situ data collected over several years at the IDELE farms and at the ICOS grassland flux towers sites.

The meteorological and flux data from ICOS sites were used as input and to calibrate ORCHIDEE. The reflectance of vegetation is now described across the short wave spectrum (400 nm to 2500 nm) as a function of leaf area index, average leaf angle, leaf water content, and pigment concentration. First results show that the new albedo description has a better correlation with the observed data than with the original one but still needs to be investigated further.

This model development will allow us to better account for the albedo changes that happen in response to meteorologic conditions and management practices, thus better quantifying the mitigation potential of French grasslands (forage and natural). Moreover, future simulations will help to adapt management practices and to recommend specific grass species that have a high albedo and/or resilience to heat and drought stress, increasing both the climate change adaptation and mitigation potentials of the French forage systems.

How to cite: Baud Fraile, E., Chang, J., Ceschia, E., Klumpp, K., Mischler, P., Viovy, N., and Lauerwald, R.: Assessment of climate mitigation potential of French grasslands using the land surface model ORCHIDEE-GM, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16922, 2025.

EGU25-17273 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2

Quantification of the biogeophysical impact of crop residue management in Europe 

Ke Yu, Yang Su, Philippe Ciais, Ronny Lauerwald, David Makowski, Eric Ceschia, Tiphaine Tallec, and Daniel Goll

Managing jointly the biogeochemical and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo and energy fluxes) impacts of agriculture is essential towards reaching climate-neutral agriculture. Only few observations collected in a small number of sites are available to quantify the impacts of agriculture on both the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate. The coupling of dedicated crop models with land surface models allows the combined quantification of those effects, but often lacks crop-specific parameterization and accounting of cropland management effects on biogeophysical effects. For these reasons, the biogeophysical and net climatic impact of agriculture on climate remains uncertain.  

Here, we refined spatiotemporal bare soil albedo dynamics and the quantification of crop pigmentation and canopy structure effects on cropland albedo in the ORCHIDEE-CROP land surface model. This model develops a detailed crop growing module based on the process-based STICS formalism.  We further introduced a new module assessing the effects of crop residues on soil albedo and soil evaporation. The model was parameterized and evaluated at nine European cropland flux sites for which detailed management information, field photos, soil moisture and surface albedo monitoring data were available. In addition, we produced a novel daily bare soil albedo product derived from Sentinel-2 at 300 m spatial resolution for Europe. 

Using the refined model we quantified the effect of the presence of crop residues on radiative forcing, soil temperature and soil moisture of winter wheat crops. Simulations with the presence of crop residues left on the soil after harvest in 2-3 months increased surface albedo by approximately 0.08±0.03 in average, with significant spatiotemporal variability influenced by meteorological and soil conditions, as well as tillage practices among sites. We further found that over the same period residue cooled the surface soil by −1.18 ± 1.98 ℃ and enhanced the total soil water content by 35.77 ± 36.23 kg/m2. In a simulation of 10-year dry scenarios, we found that returning crop residues to the field can progressively increase plant available water over multiple years, with the extent of this increase influenced by climatic conditions. This study underscores the significance of the biogeophysical impacts of residue management on surface energy balance and highlights its potential in mitigating climate change, in particular in a warmer drier climate in Europe. The new framework developed in this study allows for a more rigorous assessment of the combined biogeochemical and biophysical impacts of field operations in Earth System Models such as cover crops that could allow climate cooling both through soil organic carbon sequestration and increase in surface albedo.

How to cite: Yu, K., Su, Y., Ciais, P., Lauerwald, R., Makowski, D., Ceschia, E., Tallec, T., and Goll, D.: Quantification of the biogeophysical impact of crop residue management in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17273, 2025.

Among other sectors agriculture is under pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission to contribute to national net zero targets. Avoiding all emissions is not possible. Therefore, negative emissions are required to achieve climate neutrality or net zero targets. Croplands are acknowledged to have good capacity to capture and store carbon in form or soil organic matter (SOM). Management changes on croplands are required to increase SOM in cropland. Additionally, monitoring systems must be available to quantify SOM or soil organic carbon (SOC) changes. There are several measuring/monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems in place to provide the required approaches for quantification. However, there are no standards about the structure of an MRV system. Financial constrains driving the applied methods in the available MRV systems for SOC changes, with remote sensing and modelling popular cost-effective solutions. This presentation shows results of an analysis applied in the ClieNFarms project, which assess and advice on solutions to achieve climate neutral farming. Selected MRV systems are analysed for their functionality, applicability and potential accuracy. Further, the available MRV systems are compared for the representation of different compartments that could be implemented for a perfect approach to quantify SOC changes. This is a qualitative analysis highlighting used methods to quantify SOC changes and provides an analysis about the functionality and the applicability of methods being influenced by stakeholder needs and varying levels of data availability. This study also highlights advantages and disadvantages of using the tools and models in MRV systems or for SOC monitoring in general. Models are powerful tools but there is a wide range of different models available, which differ in data demand and accuracy. The results highlight that the available systems are mainly driven by the urgent demand considering an easy applicability, low labour requirements and cost-effectiveness. This is a critical analysis not doubting the quality of available MRV systems, but provide discussion points and views on the available and applied systems.

How to cite: Kuhnert, M., Kashyap, D., and Klumpp, K.: Monitoring of soil carbon storage to achieve climate neutral farming – analysing existing MRV systems and model options, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18001, 2025.

EGU25-18549 | ECS | Posters on site | BG8.2

Short and long-term effects of co-cropping systems in temperate regions: water-carbon interlinkages and the role of cultivar traits 

Oludare Durodola, Cathy Hawes, Jo Smith, Tracy A. Valentine, and Josie Geris

Co-cropping, the cultivation of two or more crops simultaneously on the same field, is a nature-based solution that has high potential to improve climate change adaptation and mitigation in arable systems. The short-term benefits of co-cropping, such as higher yields, better productivity, improved soil carbon and enhanced water uptake, are well-established in temperate regions, but evidence is still generally lacking for humid temperate environments. In addition, the interlinkages between water and carbon dynamics in co-cropping and the longer-term functioning, resilience and sustainability of these systems under future scenarios remain unclear. This study focuses on addressing these knowledge gaps by monitoring the short-term (2 years) and modelling the longer-term (~20 years) impact on water and carbon dynamics in different agricultural co-cropping systems for a typical temperate agroecosystem in Scotland.

The experimental study focussed on two barley (Hordeum vulgare) cultivars with contrasting phenotypic traits (high yielding and stress tolerant), co-cropped with pea (Pisum sativum) and their three corresponding monoculture systems. Crops were grown without agrochemical inputs to investigate the potential for co-cropping in low input systems. On 6 occasions during a two-year field experiment, we investigated soil physical, carbon and nitrogen properties at two depths (i.e. upper (<5 cm) and lower (25-30 cm) topsoil). Crop production and grain quality (i.e. grain carbon and nitrogen contents) were also assessed. Analyses of hydrometric monitoring, and soil and plant samples for stable water isotopes further informed the hydro-climatological conditions and plant water uptake interactions. In the short term, we found that co-cropping modified barley water uptake strategies and enhanced soil carbon, crop production and grain quality, although barley cultivar traits determined the specific effects.

The data also informed a modelling study that coupled a soil carbon (RothC) and water balance model (Hydrus-1) to test how crop water uptake patterns and carbon change interact in co-cropping systems throughout the growing season under different conditions of climate change and water availability. The findings of this study provide an evidence-base for sustainable agricultural practices in temperate systems and determine the resilience of co-cropping systems to future climatic conditions.

How to cite: Durodola, O., Hawes, C., Smith, J., Valentine, T. A., and Geris, J.: Short and long-term effects of co-cropping systems in temperate regions: water-carbon interlinkages and the role of cultivar traits, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18549, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18549, 2025.

EGU25-18904 | ECS | Orals | BG8.2

Balancing biogeochemical gains and surface albedo shifts: climate impacts of no-tillage and mulching in Southern Africa 

Souleymane Diop, Rémi Cardinael, Ronny Lauerwald, Petra Sieber, Christian Thierfelder, Regis Chikowo, Marc Corbeels, Armwell Shumba, and Eric Ceschia

Conservation agriculture (CA) practices, such as no-tillage and mulching, can contribute to climate change mitigation by enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and by influencing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. However, their impacts on surface albedo and overall climate benefits, remain underexplored, particularly in Africa. This study tries to better address the net climate impacts of no-tillage and no-tillage with mulching compared to conventional tillage through two long-term experiments conducted in Zimbabwe - one established on an abruptic Lixisol soil (DTC site), the other one on a xanthic Ferralsol soil (UZF site). Over two years, measurements included SOC concentrations to a depth of 1 m, N2O emissions, and surface albedo. The ICBM soil carbon model was employed to predict SOC stocks over 30 years of CA practices. Results indicated that no-tillage with mulching significantly increased SOC in the topsoil (0–30 cm), with stocks projected to reach 0.41 Mg C ha-1y-1 at DTC and 0.56 Mg C ha-1y-1 at UZF after 30 years. Conversely, no-tillage without mulching resulted in slight SOC losses at DTC, with predicted losses of approximately 0.036 Mg C ha-1y-1 over 30 years, while at UZF, SOC stocks increased by 0.11 Mg C ha-1y-1. Both sites exhibited very low N2O emissions, indicating minimal climate impacts from this source. Net climate impacts were evaluated using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) approach at 20- and 100-year time horizons to assess short- and long-term climate effects. Results showed that no-tillage without mulching increased surface albedo on both soil types, inducing net cooling effects of -2.56 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 and -0.65 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1, with surface albedo contributing 90% and 86%, respectively, on the Lixisol over 20 and 100 years. On the Ferralsol, no-tillage without mulching generated cooling effects of -1.25 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 and -0.77 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1, with surface albedo contributing 52% and 23%, respectively, over the same periods. In contrast, mulching had contrasting effects at the two sites. On the Ferralsol, mulching enhanced surface albedo, contributing to net cooling effects of -1.82 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 over 20 years and -1.57 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 over 100 years, with surface albedo contributing approximately 20% in the short term and 5% in the long term. Conversely, on the Lixisol, mulching reduced surface albedo, offsetting 100% of SOC benefits and resulting in a near-neutral climate effect of +0.09 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 over 20 years and +0.55 Mg CO2 eq ha-1 y-1 over 100 years. This study underscores the necessity of integrating biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects when assessing the climate mitigation potential of CA practices, particularly in regions with diverse soil types and climatic conditions.

How to cite: Diop, S., Cardinael, R., Lauerwald, R., Sieber, P., Thierfelder, C., Chikowo, R., Corbeels, M., Shumba, A., and Ceschia, E.: Balancing biogeochemical gains and surface albedo shifts: climate impacts of no-tillage and mulching in Southern Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18904, 2025.

EGU25-21430 | Orals | BG8.2

Optimizing the revisiting frequency of remotely sensed thermal observations for continuous estimation of ecosystem evapotranspiration and productivity using Bayesian inference 

Arnau Riba Palou, Monica Garcia, Ana M. Tarquis, Cecilio Oyonarte, Francisco Domingo, Jun Liu, Mark S. Johnson, Yeonuk Kim, and Sheng Wang

Understanding the energy, water, and carbon fluxes in dryland ecosystems is essential for maintaining ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. The limited in-situ measurements in drylands pose a significant challenge to the accurate monitoring and modelling of ecosystem dynamics. Satellite remote sensing provides high potential to monitor key surface and carbon variables, such as land surface temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP). Although these data provide valuable insights, their temporal resolution is limited to satellite revisit overpasses, which can limit the continuity of monitoring. To address these gaps, dynamic land surface models serve as effective tools for integrating sparse remote sensing observations with continuous simulations of energy, water, and carbon cycles. The Soil-Vegetation-atmosphere Energy, water, and CO2 traNsfer (SVEN) model exemplifies this approach, offering high temporal resolution simulations that incorporate satellite-based LST and meteorological in-situ inputs. This study focuses on calibrating and validating the model in southeastern Spain, as the only sub-desertic protected area in Europe. Calibration of SVEN was achieved using a combination of MODIS remote sensing data and in-situ LST measurements from an eddy covariance system, ensuring robust parameterization tailored to local field characteristics. Furthermore, the model was validated with in situ measurements, obtained through an eddy covariance tower. The RMSE values for the land surface temperature, latent heat flux, net radiation, sensible heat flux, gross primary productivity, and soil moisture were 1.99 ºC, 25.97 W m-2, 52.71 W m-2, 50.90 W m-2, 1.44 gCm-2s-1 and 1.19 m3m-3, respectively at half-hourly time scale. Normalized root mean square deviations of the simulated values were 7.84%, 10.81%, 5.67%, 7.81%, 13.09% and 6.59%, respectively. Otherwise, it was observed that until 8 days of revisit frequency, the calibration parameters did not affect the model accuracy considerably, increasing the RMSE of variables by 0.42 to 10.53% at the half-hourly time scale. The model’s accuracy across energy, water, and carbon fluxes highlights its potential as a reliable tool for dryland monitoring, offering insights into processes that are critical for ecological management and climate adaptation strategies. By filling the temporal gap between satellite observations, this work demonstrates the value of dynamic models like SVEN in enhancing our understanding of dryland ecosystems and promoting sustainable management practices in water-limited environments. This publication is supported by the EU COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action CA22136 “Pan-European Network of Green Deal Agriculture and Forestry Earth Observation Science” (PANGEOS).

How to cite: Riba Palou, A., Garcia, M., M. Tarquis, A., Oyonarte, C., Domingo, F., Liu, J., S. Johnson, M., Kim, Y., and Wang, S.: Optimizing the revisiting frequency of remotely sensed thermal observations for continuous estimation of ecosystem evapotranspiration and productivity using Bayesian inference, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21430, 2025.

EGU25-957 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

Exploring Dynamics of Climate and Atmosphere Employing the Temperature Indices Using Bias-Corrected GCMS and Ensemble Model Approach 

Gupta Abhishek Rajkumar, Manish Kumar Nema, and Deepak Khare

Urban areas significantly influence planetary processes by altering heat, moisture and chemical budgets and it plays a pivotal role in modifying planetary processes through their unique interactions with the environment. The reduction in natural vegetation and permeable surfaces limits evapotranspiration and alters the hydrological balance, often leading to increased surface runoff, reduced groundwater recharge and changes in local humidity levels. The current study evaluates the spatial and temporal variation of temperature extremes for the historical period (1951–2014) and the future scenarios of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP245 and SSP 585 for the future periods of 2015-2100, divided into two periods; near future (2015-2050) and far future (2051-2100) for the major tributary of The River Godavari; The Wainganga Basin, India. The temperature data for the basin is sourced from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and an ensemble model derived from them. The ensemble model incorporates climate forecasts and accounts for anticipated space-weather-related atmospheric perturbations, resulting in a more complete knowledge of fluctuations in temperature in the Wainganga River Basin. The temperature variation due to climate change is evaluated using the extreme climate indices influenced by minimum and maximum temperature, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI). These indices provide a standardized framework for assessing the impacts of driving forces of dynamic temperature and atmospheric processes. The findings will showcase the impact of changes in temperature and their effects temporally, and spatially on the sub-basin level also address the change in atmosphere strongly with the type of driver, time, and location. As global urbanization continues, insights from studies like this are crucial for developing and evaluating adaptive strategies. Conclusively, findings can inform policies aimed at climate resilience, drawing parallels with urban climate adaptation efforts. 

How to cite: Rajkumar, G. A., Nema, M. K., and Khare, D.: Exploring Dynamics of Climate and Atmosphere Employing the Temperature Indices Using Bias-Corrected GCMS and Ensemble Model Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-957, 2025.

Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge. Here, the response of daily near-surface temperature distributions to warming is explored using an idealised global climate model.  Simulations of a wide range of climate states are performed with a slab-ocean aquaplanet configuration and with a simple land continent using a bucket-style model for hydrology. In the tropics, the responses of temperature extremes (i.e., high percentiles of daily near-surface temperature) to climate change contrast strongly over land and ocean. Over land, warming is amplified for hot days relative to the average day. But over ocean, warming is suppressed for hot days, implying a narrowing of the temperature distribution. 

Previous studies have developed theories based on convective coupling to interpret changes in temperature extremes over land. Building on this work, here the contrasting temperature distribution responses over land and ocean are investigated using a new theory based on strict convective equilibrium, which assumes moist adiabatic lapse rates. The theory highlights four physical mechanisms with the potential to drive differential warming across the temperature distribution: hot-get-hotter mechanism, drier-get-hotter mechanism, relative humidity change mechanism, and the free tropospheric temperature change mechanism.  Hot days are relatively dry over land due to limited moisture availability, which drives the drier-get-hotter mechanism and  amplified warming of the warm tail of the distribution. This mechanism is the dominant factor explaining the contrasting responses of hot days over land and ocean to climate change. An extended version of the theory, which relaxes the strict convective equilibrium assumption, is introduced and applied to the simulations to understand the influence of convective available potential energy (CAPE) on changes in the temperature distribution. 

How to cite: Duffield, J. and Byrne, M.: Tropical temperature distributions over a range of climates: theory and idealised model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1397, 2025.

EGU25-1648 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Different Roles of Land-atmosphere Coupling in Compound Drought-heatwave Events 

Donghyuck Yoon, Jan-Huey Chen, Hsin Hsu, and Kirsten Findell

Droughts and heatwaves are inherently linked through land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling, where the interactions between surface energy and water availability play critical roles in their evolution. In energy-limited regimes, anomalously high surface air temperature (T) intensifies evapotranspiration (ET), leading to rapid depletion of soil moisture (SM). Conversely, in water-limited regimes, reduced SM suppresses ET, exacerbating surface warming. The transition between these two regimes, characterized by critical soil moisture thresholds, governs the progression of compound drought-heatwave events.

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of L-A coupling mechanisms during six extreme compound drought-heatwave events. In all cases, SM exhibited a consistent negative temporal correlation with T, declining from the onset to the peak of the heatwave and recovering during the decay phase. However, the behavior of ET varied, with SM-ET coupling dominating in some cases and T-ET coupling prevailing in others. These distinctions in coupling regimes demonstrated regional heterogeneity, even within individual events. As regimes shifted from T-ET to SM-ET coupling, evaporative fraction (EF) on heatwave peak days significantly decreased, underscoring that the drivers of drought-heatwave interactions differ spatially. Furthermore, correlation analysis between SM and EF revealed that critical soil moisture thresholds are key determinants of these coupling behaviors. This highlights the role of critical soil moisture in modulating L-A feedbacks and controlling the transition between coupling regimes.

Using the GFDL SHiELD global 13-km model configuration, we evaluated the predictability of two prominent events in 2022 and 2023, which displayed contrasting dominant regimes. SHiELD effectively captured the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of L-A coupling regimes in both cases. Notably, the SM-ET coupling-dominated 2023 event demonstrated superior forecast skill for SM and TMAX compared to the T-ET coupling-dominated 2022 event. This result emphasizes the importance of soil moisture memory in water-limited regions for enhancing predictability in compound drought-heatwave scenarios.

How to cite: Yoon, D., Chen, J.-H., Hsu, H., and Findell, K.: Different Roles of Land-atmosphere Coupling in Compound Drought-heatwave Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1648, 2025.

EGU25-1850 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Nonlinear interactions amplify the most extreme midlatitude heatwaves  

Yinglin Tian, Jiangong Liu, Yu Huang, Pierre Gentine, and Kai Kornhuber

Recent occurrences of record-breaking heat extremes and their profound societal impacts on health, infrastructure, food systems, and the energy sector underscore the urgent need to improve our physical understanding and modeling capacities for future projections. In mid-latitude regions, persistent high-pressure systems and dry soils have been identified as key contributors to heatwave severity. Moreover, non-linear interactions between these two drivers and temperature have been suggested to play a critical role in some of the most extreme recent heat events, such as the 2021 Pacific-North America heatwave (Bartusek et al., Nat. Clim., 2022). However, the universality and regional significance of such non-linear interactions remain largely unquantified.

Using an explainable machine learning approach, we quantitatively decompose surface air temperature anomalies during heat extremes into three components: direct contributions from (i) geopotential height anomalies, (ii) soil moisture deficits, and (iii) the interaction between the two. Our analysis reveals that non-linear interactions make statistically significant contributions across 19% of the land area in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (40°N–60°N). In these regions, the interactive contribution increases with temperature at a rate of 0.1 K/K when temperatures exceed a critical threshold of 4.0 K above the local summer mean. Hotspots of such behavior are especially pronounced in Central Europe, where 40% of the land area exhibits significant non-linear interactions, amplifying the most extreme heatwave events by up to 13%.

Furthermore, we identify a 2.4-fold increase in the regional mean non-linearity of interactions in Central Europe over the past 45 years, accompanied by a 25% expansion in the affected area. This accounts for 18% of the observed widening in the temperature distribution’s upper tail reported in other studies (Kornhuber et al., PNAS, 2024). Additionally, our findings show that CMIP6 climate models underestimate the non-linearity of extratropical interactions by 80%, contributing to biases in projections of extreme heat changes. Our findings underscore the critical role of these non-linear physical processes in amplifying extreme heatwave events, emphasizing the need to account for these processes in climate models to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate extremes in current and future climates.

How to cite: Tian, Y., Liu, J., Huang, Y., Gentine, P., and Kornhuber, K.: Nonlinear interactions amplify the most extreme midlatitude heatwaves , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1850, 2025.

EGU25-2239 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

A simple complementary framework for evaluating evaporation base on land-atmosphere coupling 

Zhuoyi Tu, Yuting Yang, Michael Roderick, and Tim McVicar

Evaporation (E) is a key process in land-atmosphere water and energy exchanges. Among the evaporation methods, the complementary relationship (CR) approach builds upon the dynamic feedbacks of water and heat fluxes between the land-atmosphere interface, providing a straightforward framework for estimating evaporation using basic meteorological inputs, without relying on complex land surface information. Although CR is a simple and effective method, traditional CR mechanisms/models still face two main challenges. First, the wet boundary condition of CR is inaccurately characterized. When the land surface is not water-limited, evaporation is defined as potential evaporation (Epo). However, Epo estimates using conventional methods often do not align with its fundamental definition, as meteorological variables observed under real conditions differ from those over a hypothetical wet surface. Here, we estimate Epo using the maximum evaporation approach (Epo_max) that does follow the original Epo definition. Our findings show that using Epo_max significantly reduces the asymmetry in the CR. Second, traditional CR mechanisms focus on the feedback between water vapor and temperature in the land-atmosphere system, while overlooking the impact of these changes on radiation. As the surface transitions from dry to wet, enhanced actual evaporation and reduced sensible heat flux lead to cooler and wetter air above the surface, reducing the vapor pressure deficit and further decreasing atmospheric evaporative capacity (or apparent potential evaporation, Epa). Building on this, we found temperature reduction overall increases the radiation term in Epa and partially offsets the traditional view that water vapor weakens the aerodynamic term. Based on the above modifications, we developed a physically-based, calibration-free CR model, which requires few input variables and thus facilitates evaporation estimation. More importantly, the CR method, grounded in land-atmosphere coupling, offers a simpler framework for studying the feedback of evaporation on climate, making it a promising tool compared to complex coupled climate models.

How to cite: Tu, Z., Yang, Y., Roderick, M., and McVicar, T.: A simple complementary framework for evaluating evaporation base on land-atmosphere coupling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2239, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2239, 2025.

Tropical regions have undergone extensive deforestation in recent decades, significantly impacting local, regional, and global water cycles; however, detailed studies on their hydroclimatic effects remain limited. This study employs a regional climate model coupled with a water vapor tracking tool to investigate the effects of deforestation on local and regional precipitation from 2000 to 2020 in three major tropical deforestation hotspots: the Amazon, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Results indicate that deforestation affects precipitation with distinct scale-dependent and seasonal variations. In the Amazon, contrasting precipitation responses to deforestation were observed between wet and dry seasons (Yingzuo Qin et al., Nature, 2025, in press). During the wet season, deforested areas exhibited a notable increase in precipitation (0.96 mm month-1 per percentage point of forest loss), primarily due to enhanced mesoscale atmospheric circulation (i.e., nonlocal effects). These nonlocal effects weakened with distance from deforested areas, resulting in significant precipitation reductions beyond 60 km. Conversely, during the dry season, precipitation decreased in deforested areas and across all analysis buffers, with local effects from reduced evapotranspiration (ET) dominating. In Africa, due to the dispersibility of deforestation across the continent, the scale-dependency and seasonality of precipitation effects caused by deforestation are influenced by elevation and deforestation patch size. In Southeast Asia, under the strong influence of oceanic water vapor, deforestation-induced positive precipitation effects prevail throughout the year. These findings underscore the complex interplay between local and nonlocal effects in driving tropical deforestation-precipitation responses across different seasons and scales, highlighting the urgent need to address the rapid and extensive loss of forests in tropical regions to mitigate their nonnegligible climatic impacts.

How to cite: Qin, Y.: Tracking tropical deforestation impacts on local and regional hydroclimate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2431, 2025.

EGU25-3078 | Orals | CL4.4

Soil moisture controls on convective initiation across the diverse landscapes and hydro-climates of Africa 

Christopher Taylor, Cornelia Klein, and Emma Barton

A wealth of studies exist analysing the feedback between soil moisture and convective precipitation across a broad range of time and space scales, encompassing theoretical, numerical modelling and observational approaches. A critical step in this feedback is an understanding of how soil moisture, via its control on sensible and latent heat fluxes, influences the initiation of deep convective clouds. Knowledge of where soil moisture conditions favour triggering of new storms is also important for short-term weather forecasting. Whilst many analyses consider how soil moisture affects the vertical profiles of temperature and humidity (1-D perspective), other studies examine the role of spatially-varying soil moisture on convective initiation via surface-induced mesoscale circulations. Here we use a 20-year observational dataset of convective initiations across sub-Saharan Africa to draw more general conclusions about how soil moisture impacts convective initiation and subsequent rainfall across a diversity of hydro-climatic, topographic and wind conditions.

We use cloud-top temperature data from the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) series of satellites to identify afternoon convective initiations for the period 2004-2023 and relate these to pre-storm observations of land surface state (land surface temperature from MSG, and surface soil moisture from the Advanced Scatterometer). Both datasets reveal a consistent Africa-wide picture of initiations favoured at the downwind end of elliptical dry soil structures, as found in previous analyses over the Sahel (Taylor et al, Nature Geoscience, 2011). The soil moisture signal weakens with stronger topographic variability, and in wetter climates and times of year, but outside of the Congo Basin and East African Highlands, the signal of initiation over locally dry soils is clear. Moreover, we show that the along-wind length scale of the dry soil feature increases with low-level wind speed. Our results, valid on scales of up to ~200km, fit with understanding of mesoscale circulations driven by soil moisture heterogeneity, and cannot be explained by 1-D consideration of thermodynamic profiles alone. We also show how the overall soil moisture-precipitation feedback from these events is influenced by wind conditions at storm steering level. In regions (including the Sahel) where winds at low and steering levels are in opposing directions, the feedback is strongly negative. Alternatively, when low and mid-level winds are aligned, the negative feedback weakens, and can become positive.

How to cite: Taylor, C., Klein, C., and Barton, E.: Soil moisture controls on convective initiation across the diverse landscapes and hydro-climates of Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3078, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3078, 2025.

The vegetation-temperature feedback significantly influences local climate variability. While previous studies have assessed the responses of local temperature to vegetation biomass changes, they often suffer from the mix of long-term global warming trends and localized vegetation-temperature interactions. More importantly, the temporal evolutions of this feedback remain elusive. Here, we use a novel approach to analyze spatiotemporal variations of this local feedback while controlling for global warming trends. Our findings reveal a weakening role of vegetation in cooling the earth over the past four decades, with a nonlinear feedback change modulated by background climatologic conditions. Furthermore, an evaluation of state-of-the-art climate models shows a systematic overestimation of vegetation cooling effects, particularly in densely vegetated regions. This overly optimistic bias contributes to a significant underestimation of global warming, highlighting the need to improve the representation of vegetation-climate interactions in climate models.

How to cite: Liu, Z., Peng, X., and He, X.: Spatiotemporal dynamics in vegetation-temperature feedback and overly optimistic representations in climate models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3628, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3628, 2025.

EGU25-4252 | Orals | CL4.4

Soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks in Central Europe: Fully coupled WRF-Hydro simulations evaluated with cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture measurements 

Joël Arnault, Benjamin Fersch, Martin Schrön, Heye Reemt Bogena, Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, and Harald Kunstmann

The skill of regional climate models partly relies on their ability to represent land–atmosphere feedbacks in a realistic manner, through the coupling with a land surface model. However, these models often suffer from insufficient or erroneous information on soil hydraulic parameters. In this study, the fully coupled land–atmosphere model WRF-Hydro driven with ERA5 reanalysis is employed to reproduce the regional atmospheric conditions over Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 4 km for the period 2017–2020. Simulated soil moisture is compared with data from cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNS) at three terrestrial environmental observatories of the TERENO network. Soil hydraulic parameters from the European digital soil dataset EU-SoilHydroGrids, together with hydraulic conductivity functions from the Campbell and van Genuchten–Mualem models, are used to test the impact of different representations of soil infiltration on modeled land–atmosphere feedbacks. An updated method to disentangle the proportion of convective precipitation being favored over wet, dry and mixed soils is provided, in order to shed more light on the soil moisture–precipitation feedback mechanism. It is found that WRF-Hydro with van Genuchten–Mualem and EU-SoilHydroGrids best reproduces CRNS soil moisture daily variations, in association with enhanced soil moisture in the root zone and a larger proportion of convective precipitation favored over wet soils. This study demonstrates the importance of adequately considering infiltration processes to realistically reproduce land–atmosphere feedbacks.

How to cite: Arnault, J., Fersch, B., Schrön, M., Bogena, H. R., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., and Kunstmann, H.: Soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks in Central Europe: Fully coupled WRF-Hydro simulations evaluated with cosmic-ray neutron soil moisture measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4252, 2025.

EGU25-4419 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

Identification of climatic extremes by multi-fractal analysis of long climate data series 

Carl Tixier, Pierre-Antoine Versini, and Benjamin Dardé

Shrinking and swelling of clays (SSC), occur as a result of water content fluctuations in expansive clayey soils, governed by seasonal cycles of precipitation and drought. This hazard causes ground movement, which can affect foundations and infrastructures. In France, where 54% of constructions are exposed to this hazard, SSC is the second largest category for natural disaster compensation.

With climate change, modification in the intensity and frequency of droughts, heat waves and precipitation are likely to exacerbate this phenomenon. In this context, further research is needed to anticipate the influence of climatic changes on the evolution of the SSC hazard and its impact on constructions in the next decades.

In particular, it is crucial to understand soil-atmosphere interactions on some appropriate spatial and temporal scales, but also through scales. Climate impact studies use hydrological or agricultural models, fed by global climate data adapted locally by statistical adjustments or downscaling. These methods improve local accuracy but increase bias and uncertainty, as they are often based on stationarity assumptions, which are not always valid in the context of climate change. The modeling of extreme values, essential for risk management, thus becomes more complex.

In response to the difficulties of climate models in representing extreme events at high spatio-temporal resolutions, and in understanding hydro-climatic interactions with clay soil, several geostatistical approaches are proposed.

An in-depth study of the existing literature has enabled us to compare the various downscaling methods. This state of the art is complemented by the study of data (extreme meteorological phenomena, humidity, soil displacements, etc.) acquired by various organizations concerned by the SSC problem (sources: BRGM, INRAE, SNCF, Météo-France, etc.).

This presentation will include the results of geostatistical analyses based on (multi)fractals conducted on this data (spatiotemporal variability, scale breaks, estimation of extreme values, spectral analysis, etc.). The data analyzed will cover the main parameters influencing soil moisture, i.e., precipitation and temperature.

These analyses may reveal the statistical signatures of climatic extremes. By identifying them, it will then be possible to research the different climate scenarios, and thus represent the extremes with precision. This step is essential to understanding SSC phenomena.

The final objective of this research work is to propose a soil-atmosphere interaction model, capable of generating the input data required for a numerical SSC behavior model. This model will take into account the various hydro-climatic parameters mentioned above, focusing mainly on evaporation and infiltration processes, as well as soil heterogeneity.

How to cite: Tixier, C., Versini, P.-A., and Dardé, B.: Identification of climatic extremes by multi-fractal analysis of long climate data series, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4419, 2025.

Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing profound warming and slight wetting over recent decades, which have contradictive effects on soil organic carbon by enhancing plant growth and thereafter carbon input into the soil and increasing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition rate. In this study, we developed a SOC model (WetlandC model) for wetlands, considering also the process of litterfall decomposition and parameterizing the effect of grazing on SOC accumulation. We also established a modelling framework to combine WetlandC model with TEM (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model) model to simulate the changes in SOC of the alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2018. Results showed that spatially, the soil organic carbon density (SOCD) of alpine wetlands was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, ranging from 1358.22 to 22571.81 g C m-2. The SOCD spatial pattern coincided with the northernmost and southernmost northern boundary of Asian summer monsoon. The SOCD was higher in region with precipitation ranging from 450 to 900 mm, suggesting that the precipitation played an important role in regulating the spatial heterogeneity of SOCD. The temporal trends of SOCD varied from -55.84 to 407.59 g C m-2 yr-1 over the plateau, and 97.98% of the wetland area was accumulating SOC. Temperature, precipitation and actual livestock carrying capacity, as the top influencing factors of the temporal trend of SOCD, accounted for 35.06%, 34.52% and 30.41% of the area in the alpine wetlands, respectively. The 0–30 cm SOC stock of the alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau increased from 518.06 Tg C in 2000 to 607.67 Tg C in 2018. Surface soil in the alpine wetlands acts as a carbon sink of 4.98 Tg C yr-1. Our results indicated that in the context of climate change, additional soil carbon sequestration in the alpine wetlands was facilitated by enhanced plant growth, in spite that grazing consumed the above-ground biomass. Future climate warming and wetting is likely to benefit the SOC accumulation in the alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau if not overgrazed.

How to cite: Zhang, Q.: Effects of climate change and grazing on soil organic carbon stock of alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4887, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4887, 2025.

Soil moisture (SM) is a crucial factor in land-atmosphere interactions and climate systems, affecting surface energy, water budgets, and weather extremes. In the Three Rivers Source Region (TRSR) of China, rapid climate change necessitates precise SM monitoring. This study employs a novel UNet-Gan model to integrate and downscale SM data from 17 CMIP6 models, producing a high-resolution (0.1◦) dataset called CMIP6UNet−Gan. This dataset includes SM data for five depth layers (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-50 cm, 50-80 cm, 80-110 cm), four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The UNet-Gan model demonstrates strong performance in data fusion and downscaling, especially in shallow soil layers. Analysis of the CMIP6UNet−Gan dataset reveals an overall increasing trend in SM across all layers, with higher rates under more intense emission scenarios. Spatially, moisture increases vary, with significant trends in the western Yangtze and northeastern Yellow River regions. Deeper soils show a slower response to climate change, and seasonal variations indicate that moisture increases are most pronounced in spring and winter, followed by autumn, with the least increase observed in summer. Future projections suggest higher moisture increase rates in the early and late 21st century compared to the mid-century. By the end of this century (2071-2100), compared to the Historical period (1995-2014), the increase in SM across the five depth layers ranges from: 5.5% to 11.5%, 4.6% to 9.2%, 4.3% to 7.5%, 4.5% to 7.5%, and 163.3% to 6.5%, respectively.

How to cite: Luo, S. and Li, Z.: Trend Analysis of High-Resolution Soil Moisture Data Based on GAN in the Three River Source Region During the 21st Century, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5586, 2025.

The representation of snow in land surface models is critical for accurate seasonal forecasting, yet traditional single-layer snow schemes fail to capture the full insulating properties of deep snowpacks. These limitations result in pronounced seasonal biases, including excessive winter cooling and springtime warming. This study explores the impact of introducing a multi-layer snow scheme within the Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea) to address these biases. Using 24 years of retrospective forecasts (1993–2016), we compare the latest version, GloSea6, incorporating the multi-layer scheme, with GloSea5, which relies on a single-layer approach. The multi-layer snow scheme in GloSea6 improves the onset of snowmelt, delaying it by approximately two weeks. This delay moderates spring soil moisture depletion, promoting greater latent heat flux and surface evaporative cooling. The wetter surface reduces the overestimation of water-limited processes and mitigates near-surface warming biases during summer. Additionally, the enhanced representation of snow improves the simulation of precipitation, particularly in snowmelt-driven regions such as the Great Plains, Europe, and South and East Asia, leading to substantial error reductions. These findings highlight the critical role of a multi-layer snow scheme in advancing seasonal forecast accuracy, not only for temperature and precipitation during snowmelt but also for subsequent summer climatic conditions through improved land-atmosphere feedback processes.

How to cite: Seo, E. and Dirmeyer, P.: Unveiling the influence of multi-layer snowpack in seasonal forecast system on model climatological bias, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5714, 2025.

EGU25-5959 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Recurring and Co-Occurring Climate Extremes in Eastern Africa. A Normalcy? 

Peter K. Musyimi, Tamás Weidinger, Tímea Kalmár, Lucia Mumo, and Balázs Székely

Recurring and co-occurring extreme climate events exacerbate adverse effects on human livelihoods, regional and local economy, and the environment. Previous studies have extensively researched on the frequency, intensity, and duration of single climate extremes. However, recurring and co occurrence compound extremes remain scantly addressed in the East Africa Region. Here, we examine spatial variations of the precipitation and temperature extremes events from 1991 to 2022 (32 years) in East Africa, where agriculture is the main economic mainstay. We used high-resolution (0.25° x 0.25°) precipitation and temperature ERA5-reanalysis data. Three agriculturally relevant precipitation events: consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), annual total precipitation that is wet-days annual amount (RR ≥ 1 mm)(PRCPTOT),  and three core temperature metrics: summer days with temperature > 25°C (SU25), extremely hot days with maximum temperature > 35°C (SU35) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) are examined. Our results show that the mean annual CDD ranges between 0 and 240 days in DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, and the Ethiopian Highlands. The CWD annual averages were the longest, and the maximum was observed in some parts of DR Congo, Ethiopian, and Kenya highlands (365 days). However, minimum CWD events were experienced in the whole of Somalia and arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Kenya, Southern Sudan, and Tanzania. The highest PRCPTOT was experienced in high altitudes and rainforest biomes. Mean annual SU25 were low, predominating in mountainous regions with less than 100 days. Most parts of Kenya show the annual DTR between 10 °C to 12 °C, and few areas with values between 8 °C to 10 °C and between 12 °C and 15 °C. Rwanda and Burundi had values between 8 °C and 10 °C while Tanzania experienced values between 8 °C to 10 °C and between 10 °C and 12 °C. These agriculturally relevant climate extremes threaten people’s livelihood, which is highly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Therefore, contextual-specific adaptation strategies are imperative in minimizing socioeconomic loss and damaging adverse effects in the agriculture and water sectors. Early warning systems should be enforced over East Africa to minimize compounded climate risks.

Keywords: Climate Extremes; East Africa region; ERA5; Precipitation; Temperature.

How to cite: Musyimi, P. K., Weidinger, T., Kalmár, T., Mumo, L., and Székely, B.: Recurring and Co-Occurring Climate Extremes in Eastern Africa. A Normalcy?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5959, 2025.

EGU25-7299 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Land climate under warming in radiative-convective equilibrium simulations 

Tara Gallagher and Kaighin McColl

A simple way to model Earth’s climate is to assume radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), where surface fluxes transport heat and water vapor away from the surface, and radiative cooling balances this energy in the atmosphere. This framework has provided basic insight into the effect of warming on climate over oceans with both fixed and interactive surface temperatures, but it is seldom applied over land. Unlike oceans, land surfaces have a limited water supply and a small heat capacity, and may respond quite differently given these features. Here, we run a suite of cloud-permitting simulations in RCE over land both with interactive soil moisture and fixed at saturation. In contrast to the most relevant previous studies, our simulations span a wide range of climates, obtained by varying the top-of-atmosphere insolation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Several notable patterns emerge as surface temperatures rise including non-monotonic trends in precipitation and steady declines in soil moisture, neither of which can be explained with existing theory. The results demonstrate distinctions between land and ocean responses to warming, with implications for land climate sensitivity and hydrological sensitivity.

How to cite: Gallagher, T. and McColl, K.: Land climate under warming in radiative-convective equilibrium simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7299, 2025.

EGU25-7752 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Causal Dynamics of Land–Atmosphere Coupling under Compound Dry–Hot Events 

Yikui Zhang, Daniel Hagan, Diego G. Miralles, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet

The increasing frequency and magnitude of compound dry–hot events (CDHEs) pose significant risks to natural and managed systems. While the role of land–atmosphere coupling in determining the magnitude and evolution of CDHEs has been highlighted, the causal interactions between variables within the coupled system under external forcing remain poorly understood. This study investigates the causal relationships between soil moisture and 2m air temperature, as well as between absorbed shortwave solar radiation and 2m air temperature during CDHEs, based on information flow theory. Using two fully coupled simulations with the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP), one with and one without irrigation, the information flow analysis provides an interpretable framework to characterize the spatiotemporal variability of the land–atmosphere coupling strength in response to the perturbations such as CDHEs and irrigation. 

The results show that concurrent dry and hot conditions are characterized by temporal shifts in the evaporative regime towards increased soil moisture–temperature information flow driven by the shift in surface energy partitioning, such that decreases in soil moisture lead to increased temperatures. Meanwhile, irrigation can significantly reduce the frequency and magnitude of CDHEs by directly increasing soil moisture variability and indirectly affecting surface energy fluxes, and thus altering land–atmosphere coupling. However, the impact of irrigation in Europe is predominantly local and limited by the volumes applied. These findings highlight the potential of targeted, region-specific irrigation strategies to attenuate dry and hot extremes. In addition, the information flow framework provides a robust and interpretable tool for diagnosing the functional performance of regional climate models under perturbations, offering new insights for analyzing the impacts of human interventions on the climate system and enhancing our understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events in future studies.

How to cite: Zhang, Y., Hagan, D., Miralles, D. G., Goergen, K., and Kollet, S.: Causal Dynamics of Land–Atmosphere Coupling under Compound Dry–Hot Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7752, 2025.

EGU25-8597 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Dynamic Impacts of Eurasian Spring Snowmelt on Summer Heat Extremes in Northern East Asia 

Yulong Yang, Qinglong You, and Taylor Smith

Eurasian spring snowmelt (ESS) significantly influences climate, yet its effects on climate extremes and their dynamic variations remains poorly understood. This study investigates the dynamic impact of ESS on summer heat extremes in Northern East Asia (NEA) during 1979–2018 and examines the underlying mechanisms driving long-range links between snowmelt and temperature anomalies. We find that ESS has a notable positive impact on NEA summer heat extremes, primarily driven by snow-hydrological effects (soil-moisture). Increased ESS drives positive local soil-moisture anomalies in summer, which cool the near-surface atmosphere, facilitating the eastward propagation of anomalous wave patterns. This process strengthens the anomalous anticyclone over NEA, amplifying summer heat extremes. We also find that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates this impact, with its positive phase significantly enhancing the ESS effect by altering atmospheric circulation, strengthening the coupling between spring snowmelt and summer soil moisture, and intensifying NEA heat extremes. This study underscores the critical role of ESS in driving atmospheric circulation over wide regions, and highlights the coupled impacts of multi-scale and multi-temporal climate variability.

How to cite: Yang, Y., You, Q., and Smith, T.: Dynamic Impacts of Eurasian Spring Snowmelt on Summer Heat Extremes in Northern East Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8597, 2025.

EGU25-8944 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

How shallow and deep groundwater impact environmental parameters correlated with global heatwaves 

Anastasia Vogelbacher, Mehdi H. Afshar, Milad Aminzadeh, Kaveh Madani, Amir AghaKouchak, and Nima Shokri

Heatwaves present serious challenges to ecosystems, human health, and a wide range of socioeconomic activities. As the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increase, understanding the mechanisms driving their dynamics and interactions with land surface processes become more important. While extensive research has investigated the influence of various land and atmospheric parameters on heatwaves, less is known about how groundwater depth influences heatwave dynamics through their effects on soil moisture and surface evaporative fluxes (Vogelbacher et al., 2024, Sadeghi et al., 2012). To address this knowledge gap, we investigated how the groundwater depth affects the key parameters controlling heatwave dynamics on a global scale. Specifically, we developed more than 200,000 localized Artificial Intelligence (AI) models to represent the spatial distribution of heatwave frequency over the past 21 years across the world. For each model, a radius of 1.5 degrees (approximately 149 neighboring pixels) is considered in the computation to identify key parameters contributing to heatwaves in that region. We analyzed surface fluxes, as well as atmospheric, hydrological, and local environmental variables, to understand their correlation to heatwaves. Our findings suggest that geopotential height representing atmospheric drivers, is the key predictor of heatwave events in regions with deep groundwater tables (>100 m). In contrast, in areas with shallow groundwater (<10 m), surface fluxes emerge as important contributor to the onset of heatwaves. These findings highlight the less-discussed impact of groundwater depth on atmospheric processes and the important role of soil in linking groundwater and the atmosphere. Our results have important implications for water and land management, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches to understand and address the increasing risks posed by heatwaves.

 

References:
Sadeghi, M., Shokri, N., Jones, S.B. (2012). A novel analytical solution to steady-state evaporation from porous media. Water Resour. Res., 48, W09516, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012060

Vogelbacher, A., Aminzadeh, M., Madani,K., Shokri, N. (2024). An analytical framework to investigate groundwater‐ atmosphere interactions influenced by soil properties. Water Resour. Res., 60, e2023WR036643. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036643

How to cite: Vogelbacher, A., Afshar, M. H., Aminzadeh, M., Madani, K., AghaKouchak, A., and Shokri, N.: How shallow and deep groundwater impact environmental parameters correlated with global heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8944, 2025.

The global land carbon sink is reduced by climate change, in particular by extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves, and fires1,2. Soil moisture, including its feedback on atmospheric conditions (SA), was identified as one of key drivers of these climate extremes3-6 and contributes to the negative climate effects on the land carbon uptake7,8. However, the extent to which the total climate impact on land carbon uptake can be explained by SA feedback remains unknown. Here, we develop an analytical framework utilizing multiple factorial model experiments to show that SA feedback contributes more than half (–61.6 ± 10.4%) of the total climate effect on land carbon uptake at a global scale during 1981–2014, with the largest contributions from hot and dry regions. The strengthened SA feedback has shifted the climate impact on land carbon uptake from near-neutral during 1981–1997 to largely negative during 1998–2014, primarily by weakening photosynthesis. By the end of the twenty-first century, projected reductions in land carbon uptake caused by the SA feedback could even double under a high emission scenario relative to the historical period, driven by increased soil moisture variability. Our findings highlight that SA feedback will potentially dominate the response of long-term land carbon uptake to climate change.

How to cite: Zeng, Z.: Soil moisture-atmosphere feedback controls more than half of total climate effects on land carbon uptake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10175, 2025.

EGU25-12031 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Buffering of climate extremes within riparian forest corridors: a theoretical study with practical applications 

Myrtille Grulois, Sylvain Dupont, Caroline Bidot, Rémi Lemaire-Patin, and Jérôme Ogée

Riparian forests in tropical and temperate regions often act as climatic microrefugia for many species and taxa, buffering climate extremes relative to their surroundings. For example, during a summer heatwave, maximum air temperatures can vary by several degrees between the edge and the core of the riparian forest understory. This buffering of climate extremes within riparian corridors is well documented, but the processes behind it are not well understood because they involve complex turbulent air flows throughout the convective atmospheric boundary layer interacting with the forest canopy and landscape microtopography. To better understand how forest cover and microtopography influence the microclimate within and above riparian corridors, we performed in silico experiments using a 3-dimensional Large Eddy Simulation (LES) vegetation-atmosphere model to simulate air flows and microclimate below and above the trees, and across the entire convective boundary layer. Simulations were performed for different atmospheric stability conditions, and for different corridor widths. The tree species composition in the riparian corridor and its microtopography (slope, aspect) were chosen to be representative of an old-growth temperate riparian forest known to act as a climate refugium for European beech in south-west France. In this context, we first investigated the effect of microtopography alone on the air flows below and above the forest canopy during a typical summer heatwave. We also investigated the impact of replacing maritime pine plantations on the plateau with a strip of deciduous trees extending beyond the riparian corridor, with the aim to evaluate the minimum strip size required to mitigate climate extremes in the riparian understory.

How to cite: Grulois, M., Dupont, S., Bidot, C., Lemaire-Patin, R., and Ogée, J.: Buffering of climate extremes within riparian forest corridors: a theoretical study with practical applications, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12031, 2025.

EGU25-12438 | Orals | CL4.4

Identifying regional drivers shaping daily maximum temperatures and their extremes   

Sarosh Alam Ghausi and Axel Kleidon

Daily maximum air temperatures (Tmax) are shaped by radiation, advection, atmospheric circulation, and land-surface processes, all interacting through complex feedbacks but essentially reflecting changes in the local surface energy budget. Here, we use a land-atmosphere systems approach to derive an analytical expression for daily maximum temperatures that depends solely on observed radiative and surface-evaporative conditions, requiring no additional parameters. We do this by accounting for the surface energy balance, heat storage variations within the lower atmosphere and explicitly constrain vertical turbulent exchange using the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. This approach reproduces observations very well with residual errors comparable to the reanalysis data. We then applied it to understand variations in Tmax and found that its day-to-day variability is predominantly shaped by shortwave cloud radiative effects and longwave water-vapor emissivity in the humid tropics, while heat advection and storage effects are the primary contributors in drier subtropics and high latitudes. Hot extremes, however, are mostly shaped by anomalies in land-surface characteristics including soil water stress and turbulent fluxes, with secondary contributions from heat advection and radiative effects. Both variability and extremes in the tropics were linked to changes in moisture, while the heat-storage and advective effects dominate in dry subtropics and high-latitude regions. These findings reveal the regional radiative and hydrological drivers of temperature variations within the thermodynamic energy budget and provide a baseline for understanding biases and inter-model variability in climate models. It can further help in assessing first-order changes in daily maximum temperatures due to various aspects of global change.

How to cite: Ghausi, S. A. and Kleidon, A.: Identifying regional drivers shaping daily maximum temperatures and their extremes  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12438, 2025.

EGU25-12862 | Orals | CL4.4

Tailoring Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) Impacts for Stakeholder-Centric Climate Policy 

Julia Pongratz, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Michael Windisch, Steven De Hertog, Amali Amali, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

The land sector plays an important role in addressing global climate change: Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) is currently responsible for about 10-15% of annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions, including the only notable origins of negative emissions to date; both emissions and removals aspects make LULUCF a key focus of future climate mitigation policies. However, LULUCF also acts via changing albedo, roughness and other surface properties and thus impacts the surface energy balance and water fluxes (the biogeophysical (BGP) effects). Through the BGP effects, LULUCF has a direct impact on local climate and may counteract global warming through local cooling and mitigate extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts. LULUCF thus also plays a role in helping communities adapt to its effects.

However, decision-makers often focus only on direct emissions and carbon storage from LULUCF. These are called local biogeochemical (BGC) effects. To make sound climate policies, it is important to consider other processes of LULUCF as well: (i) Local BGP effects, which are BGP effects acting at the site the LULUCF happens; (ii) nonlocal BGP effects, which are remote climate changes caused by advection and large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation; (iii) nonlocal BGC effects, which are remote changes in carbon storage driven by the climate changes from nonlocal BGP effects.

The complexity of these LULUCF effects, with their different spatial scales and mechanisms, often prevents stakeholders from fully incorporating them into decision-making. In this study, we create a system that helps tailor the assessment of LULUCF effects to the specific concerns of different stakeholders. This system makes it possible to distinguish the combinations of LULUCF effects that should be considered in decision-making of different purposes: For example, the interest of a farmer will focus more on the local changes in climate (predominantly influenced by BGP effects) and additionally, if farmers get credits for emission reductions or CO2 removals, on local BGC effects. International negotiations under the UNFCCC, by contrast, focus predominantly on the combined local and nonlocal BGC effects.

In our study, we carefully identify different combinations of LULUCF effects exemplarily for 5 key stakeholders’ perspectives. We analyze model results from three advanced Earth system models to give an idea of how important the negligence or incorporation of one or the other LULUCF effect is. We do so for stylized large-scale scenarios of three common forms of LULUCF: global cropland expansion, global cropland expansion with irrigation, and global afforestation. We show that the answer to whether or not a LULUCF change brings desirable effects to climate and may help mitigation and/or adaptation is very much dependent on the perspective, with our system providing a tool to translate between the different perspectives.

This study gives a detailed look at how LULUCF affects both climate and the carbon cycle, providing a foundation for incorporating these impacts into policy at different levels. It helps guide climate action that balances land use with the Sustainable Development Goals, especially considering the growing interest in nature-based solutions for future climate strategies.

How to cite: Pongratz, J., Guo, S., Havermann, F., Windisch, M., De Hertog, S., Amali, A., Luo, F., Manola, I., Lejeune, Q., and Schleussner, C.-F.: Tailoring Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) Impacts for Stakeholder-Centric Climate Policy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12862, 2025.

EGU25-13001 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

The delayed onset of South American monsoon under global warming in convection-permitting regional climate simulations. 

Jerry B Samuel, Marcia T Zilli, Neil C G Hart, and Fran Morris

Under a warmer scenario, several monsoon regimes are projected to have a delayed onset
of the rainy season. We employ state-of-the-art convection permitting regional climate
model (CPRCM) simulations performed at the UK Met Office to explore potential drivers of
this projected delay over South America. The simulations correspond to a present-day
climate (CPRM-PD) and an RCP8.5 scenario (CPRCM-2100). CPRCM-PD is downscaled
from an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation forced with sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1998-2007. CPRCM-2100 is driven by an AGCM
simulation forced with SSTs and greenhouse gas concentrations corresponding to an
RCP8.5 scenario. In CPRCM-2100, the onset of the rainy season is delayed, with several
regions exhibiting a delay of up to one month. The rainfall during September and October
shows approximately 50% decline over Central East Brazil, accompanied by coherent
changes in atmospheric thermodynamics. A larger relative increase in near-surface moist
static energy (MSE) is required of atmospheric destabilization in the RCP8.5 scenario, which
however, crosses the necessary threshold for significant rainfall to begin only in late
October/early November. The increase in MSE is primarily due to low-level moisture
enhancement during the onset phase which is also found to be delayed in the RCP8.5
scenario. Precipitation-moisture relationship over the region during the onset phase
indicates a 20% increase (relative to present-day) in near-surface specific humidity
requirement for a daily rainfall rate of 5 mm/day in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, there is a
substantial reduction in evapotranspiration during September and October, in addition to
the absence of any significant changes in moisture flux convergence. This hampers the
moisture build-up and delays the transition to the rainy season in these months. The decline
in evapotranspiration is despite larger soil moisture content in the soil column which
suggests reduced plant transpiration. An increase in stomatal closure in the future
environmental conditions leads to this decline in the RCP8.5 simulation. These changes are
also accompanied by changes in both surface and top of the atmosphere energy fluxes. The
results call for the urgency to develop land use policies to mitigate climate change effects,
given the increasing intensity of droughts in Brazil during recent times. The findings also
highlight the role of local processes in modulating climate projections and the necessity to
improve their representation in climate models.

How to cite: Samuel, J. B., Zilli, M. T., Hart, N. C. G., and Morris, F.: The delayed onset of South American monsoon under global warming in convection-permitting regional climate simulations., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13001, 2025.

EGU25-13687 | Orals | CL4.4

What is the compound effect of re/af-forestation and extreme heat on summer land-atmosphere coupling across Europe?    

Rita M. Cardoso, Luana C. Santos, Elena García Bustamante, Daniela C.A. Lima Lima, Pedro MM Soares, Carlos da Camara Camara, Diana Rechid, and Ana Russo and the Lucas Team

Through soil moisture and vegetation exchanges, land-atmosphere coupling contributes significantly to the evolution of extreme events. Land use/land cover changes (LUC) modify local land surface properties that control the land-atmosphere mass, energy, and momentum exchanges. The Flagship Pilot Study LUCAS (Land Use & Climate Across Scales) provides a coordinated effort to study LUC using an ensemble of 11 regional climate models (RCMs). In the first phase of the project, three reanalyses-driven experiments were performed for continental Europe: eval (with each RCM using its standard land use / land cover distribution), forest (maximised forest cover), and grass (trees replaced by grassland. An analysis of the impact on the coupling between temperature and evapotranspiration is performed using the usual correlation metric, while a new coupling metric based on the product of normalised variables was developed to analyse the coupling between extreme heat (TX90p) or heat wave (TX90p for at least five consecutive days) and evapotranspiration (LH) or soil moisture (TX90p*LH or TX90p*SMOIS). Whenever its values are lower than -1, then LH (SMOIS) is concurrently in deficit, and soil is uncoupled from the atmosphere. Conversely, when its values are greater than 1, then land-atmosphere coupling occurs.

For all RCMs, a positive correlation between near-surface maximum temperature and latent heat prevails over northern Europe, while the negative correlation dominates over southern and southeastern Europe. Forestation (forest-grass) will lead to higher correlations between latent heat and near-surface maximum temperature due to the different transition zone belt locations and weaker correlations in the grass experiment.

Extreme heat and evapotranspiration are positively coupled in forests across the whole continent except in the Mediterranean.  In the grass experiment, the Mediterranean areas are negatively coupled in most models, whilst northern Europe is positively coupled. This coupling (positive/negative) is amplified under heat wave events. Overall, forestation induces increased coupling in central Europe.  In the forest experiment, extreme temperature and soil moisture are negatively coupled across Europe, indicating that the increase in evapotranspiration is associated with the ability of the trees to source water from deeper soil layers.  In the grass experiment, the ensemble mean shows very weak un/coupling in central/ southern Europe, indicating the inability of grasses to source water in deeper soil layers and a broadening of the transition zone.

 

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support  from the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, (FCT, I.P./MCTES) through national funds (PIDDAC): UID/50019/2025 and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020), DHEFEUS (https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC), and through project references https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/00239/2020, https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/00239/2020 ,  LS, RMC, AR, and DCAL are supported by FCT, financed by national funds from the MCTES through grant UI/BD/154675/2023, and https://doi.org/10.54499/2021.01280.CEECIND/CP1650/CT0006, https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006, and https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.03183.CEECIND/CP1715/CT0004, respectively

How to cite: Cardoso, R. M., Santos, L. C., García Bustamante, E., Lima, D. C. A. L., Soares, P. M., Camara, C. D. C., Rechid, D., and Russo, A. and the Lucas Team: What is the compound effect of re/af-forestation and extreme heat on summer land-atmosphere coupling across Europe?   , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13687, 2025.

EGU25-13907 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

How do land-use changes shape the occurrence of extreme temperatures across Europe?    

Luana Santos, Rita Cardoso, Elena García Bustamante, Daniela C.A. Lima, Pedro MM Soares, Carlos da Camara, Diana Rechid, and Ana Russo and the Lucas Team

In recent years, an increase in the frequency of occurrence of heatwaves and in the number of hot days in Europe is undeniable. Hence, there is an increased need to understand the feedback mechanisms relevant to their development. Due to their localised impact and although they modify local land surface properties that control the land-atmosphere mass, energy, and momentum exchanges, the influence of land use/land cover changes (LUC) at regional scales still needs to be better represented in coordinated downscaling experiments. The Flagship Pilot Study LUCAS (Land Use & Climate Across Scales) provides a coordinated effort to study LUC using an ensemble of 11 regional climate models (RCMs). In the first phase of the project, three experiments were performed for continental Europe: eval (current climate), grass (trees replaced by grassland), and forest (grasses and shrubs replaced by trees). Heat events can be defined using percentiles, and heat waves are periods of consecutive hot days where temperatures exceed a certain percentile. Here, we use P85, P90 and P95 for maximum temperature thresholds and consider durations of 5, 7, and 10 days.  To facilitate the comparison of the intensity of these extreme events and their evolution over time, we normalise the daily maximum temperature, latent heat and soil moisture using a seasonal interquartile range. An analysis of frequency, magnitude, duration and extension is performed for the three percentiles and for the different land covers.

The results suggest that model responses to afforestation and deforestation exhibit some variability, particularly during summer months. While a substantial proportion of the models indicate a potential enhancement in the intensity and magnitude of heat extremes under forest scenarios, others demonstrate more muted or contrasting effects. The objective of the present analysis is to understand these discrepancies among models and their implications for land-atmosphere interactions under various land use scenarios. The findings will be discussed in terms of their relevance to climate extremes, providing insights into the role of LUC in modulating heat events across Europe.

How to cite: Santos, L., Cardoso, R., García Bustamante, E., Lima, D. C. A., Soares, P. M., Camara, C. D., Rechid, D., and Russo, A. and the Lucas Team: How do land-use changes shape the occurrence of extreme temperatures across Europe?   , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13907, 2025.

EGU25-14418 | Posters on site | CL4.4

Estimating the impact of irrigation and groundwater pumping on regional hydroclimate using an Earth System Model 

Yusuke Satoh, Yadu Pokhrel, Hyungjun Kim, Tomohiro Hajima, and Tokuta Yokohata

Irrigation is a significant anthropogenic forcing to the Earth system, altering water and heat budgets at the land surface and inducing changes in regional hydro-climate conditions across various spatiotemporal scales. These impacts of irrigation are expected to intensify in the future due to growing food demand and the pervasive effects of climate change. Therefore, it is imperative to better understand its nature, extent, and mechanisms through which irrigation affects the Earth system. However, despite its increasing importance, irrigation remains an emerging component in Earth system modeling community, necessitating further advancements in modeling approaches and a deeper understanding.

Our research aims to improve the quantitative understanding of how irrigation and groundwater use, as anthropogenic drivers, affect regional climate and environmental changes. To achieve this, we developed an enhanced Earth system modeling framework based on MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al., 2020, GMD), integrated with hydrological human-activity modules (Yokohata et al., 2020, GMD). This framework enables simulations of coupled natural-human interactions, including hydrological dynamics associated with irrigation processes. Using this Earth system model, we carried out numerical experiments at T85 spatial resolution with an AMIP-style setup. Our large ensemble simulations allow statistical quantification of irrigation impacts, statistically distinguishing them from uncertainties arising due to natural variability.

Our investigation identified specific regions and seasons where irrigation exerts notable influences on regional hydro-climate. In particular, our results reveal substantial disparities—comparable to or exceeding inter-annual variability—between simulations with and without irrigation processes, especially in heavily irrigated regions such as Pakistan and India. Our model demonstrates that artificially wet soils due to irrigation alter the land surface hydrological balance, which consequently impacts the overlying atmosphere. However, significant uncertainties remain in the impact estimates for several variables in some regions, even those heavily irrigated, including the central United States and eastern China. This highlights the necessity of employing appropriate statistical approaches to evaluate irrigation impacts, accounting for inherent natural variability.

Additionally, our study estimates regional variations in the contributions of groundwater and surface water use to irrigation impacts. Our estimate indicates that approximately two-fifths of global irrigation water depend on groundwater resource, while this groundwater dependency ratio may still be underestimated. By emphasizing the importance of understanding regional and seasonal characteristics, our study underscores the importance of comprehending the complex interactions between irrigation-related human activities and the Earth's climate system. Nevertheless, we may still underestimate the full impacts of irrigation because irrigation water demand estimated by our coupled simulations is lower than that derived from preceding offline simulations or reported statistics. In this presentation, we will discuss this challenge as well.

How to cite: Satoh, Y., Pokhrel, Y., Kim, H., Hajima, T., and Yokohata, T.: Estimating the impact of irrigation and groundwater pumping on regional hydroclimate using an Earth System Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14418, 2025.

Human activities have a significant impact on the climate by altering vegetation types and modifying surface properties, resulting in more frequent and intense extreme weather events, which pose a threat to the sustainable development of the environment. However, the specific effects of vegetation change on extreme temperature events are not fully understood. To address this gap, we conducted evaluations with both in-situ observations and the regional climate model to determine the contributions of different vegetation transitions to extreme temperature changes over China. Our findings indicate that vegetation plays an important role in local heatwaves. Cropland have a stronger heating effect than grassland and forests in lifting the daily maximum temperature but present shorter hot day durations. Uncertainties are high in grassland than those of forest due to more diverse background climatic conditions of grassland sites. Numerical simulations revealed a decrease in extreme temperatures such as a 0.85℃ decrease in the daily maximum temperature and 2.65 fewer hot days, which can be attributed to changes of cloud radiation and sensible heat flux resulting from large-scale deforestation in the southern region and cropland expansion in central China. Converting forests to woody savannas led to a significant reduction in leaf area index and latent heat flux in the southern and northeastern regions. Changes in surface property have a stronger relationship with the average temperature changes than with extreme temperature changes. Overall, our study quantitatively evaluates the impact of different vegetation types and their property changes on regional extreme temperature changes, which have important implications for ecological protection and policy-making in China.

How to cite: Dong, N. and Liu, Z.: Comparing responses of summer extreme temperature to vegetation changes in China between satellite observations and numerical simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14702, 2025.

EGU25-15325 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

Role of Pre-Monsoon Showers in the Evolution of Indian Heatwaves 

Manali Saha, Vishal Dixit, and Karthikeyan Lanka

Heatwaves constitute one of the most lethal weather phenomena, presenting substantial risks to millions of individuals. Characterized by extended periods of extreme temperatures, these events significantly impact ecosystems, economies, and human mortality rates. When coupled with high humidity, these events pose high heat stress over the heatwave domain. India, being one of the significant hotspots, experiences heatwaves during the pre-monsoon season. These heatwaves are associated with both moist and dry mechanisms. Moist heatwaves have high wet bulb temperatures and cause high fatalities among humans and mammals. With high population loading and the context of climate change, the origin or source of these moist heat waves has not been examined thoroughly till now. 

In the study, we investigate the precursors of the moist and dry heat waves in the Indo-Gangetic Plains using the Eulerian temperature decomposition equation to find out the dominant processes responsible for the formation of these events. The past literature says that advection is the major component in triggering these events, but our analysis proves that the effect of advection is minimal and supports the weak temperature gradient (WTG) theory in the tropics. To study the precursors, we extend our analysis from the pre-heatwave time to the onset of the heatwaves. Our analysis shows that pre-monsoon showers are responsible for forming moist heat waves. These showers are associated with nighttime low-level clouds that trap the outgoing long-wave radiation, further accumulating the heat content and causing the temperatures to rise. Further, these rainfall activities must be supported by the mid-tropospheric dryness (MTD) for it to be sustained throughout the period. The MTD helps the low-level clouds resulting from shallow convection remain as they are and does not promote deep convection. We emphasize the importance of local atmospheric conditions along with large-scale activities (that trigger anticyclones in the upper troposphere) in sustaining the heatwave intensity. The findings of this study will help in developing heatwave early warning systems at localized scales.

Keywords: Moist heatwaves, Pre-Monsoon showers, Mid Tropospheric Dryness, Weak Temperature Gradient, Advection

How to cite: Saha, M., Dixit, V., and Lanka, K.: Role of Pre-Monsoon Showers in the Evolution of Indian Heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15325, 2025.

EGU25-15489 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Revisiting the link between soil moisture deficits and heatwaves 

Dominik L. Schumacher, Emanuele Bevacqua, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Severe heatwaves tend to strike during drought conditions, primarily considered a consequence of persistent, often quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation. A key mechanism for heatwave intensification is the positive feedback between rapidly desiccating soils through elevated atmospheric evaporative demand and the associated enhanced surface sensible heating. The effect of such enhanced sensible heating is often quantified by comparing the evolution of heatwaves in climate model simulations with freely evolving soil water to additional simulations in which soil moisture is kept at climatological levels, and can reach up to several degrees Celsius. With this approach, one can gauge the effect of deviations from present-day average soil moisture, but this becomes increasingly hypothetical as we shift away from climatological norms and toward a future marked by widespread projected increases in agro-ecological drought during summer months. In such a climate change context, a general key question to address is: How does heatwave intensity depend on the initial state of soil moisture? To investigate this, we re-simulate historical heatwaves using CESM2, a state-of-the-art global Earth System Model, and examine how these events would have unfolded under different land surface conditions. We also explore the long-noted — yet never fully quantified — effect of soil drought on anticyclonic circulation itself.

How to cite: Schumacher, D. L., Bevacqua, E., Hauser, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Revisiting the link between soil moisture deficits and heatwaves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15489, 2025.

EGU25-16332 | Orals | CL4.4

How much does afforestation’s impact on local land surface temperature vary in space, in time, and during dry and hot extreme events?  

Gregory Duveiller, Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Luca Caporaso, Daniel Loos, Di Xie, Melanie Weynants, Alexander J. Winkler, and Alessandro Cescatti

Changing the properties of the land surface may be one of the most direct ways to modulate local (and possibly non-local) land-atmosphere interactions, which in turn is of great interest for designing proper land-based climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. When we change the type of vegetation across a landscape, the biophysical properties of that land surface will change, potentially altering both radiative and non-radiative fluxes. Land surface temperature (LST), as measured from remote sensing satellites, provides a useful diagnostic, integrating the effects of these changes in fluxes. When combined with space-for-time substitution approaches, it is possible to derive data-driven estimations of what a given land cover transition could lead to in terms of LST before the actual land cover change occurs. However, the interannual variability of such biophysical effects of land use and land cover change is still understudied, which is an important prerequisite to understand the role these effects may have in alleviating or aggravating the occurrence and impacts of extreme events. 

In this study we present a global analysis of potential afforestation on local afternoon clear-sky LST across the MODIS Aqua record (from 2002 until 2024). This allows us to explore the interannual variability of local increases in forest cover on local LST, which in turns helps us estimate the sensitivity of the effects of afforestation in a changing climate. By combining these results with a dedicated dataset identifying hot and dry extremes from ERA5, we further explore how the effect of afforestation on LST changes under extreme conditions, which the trees would be increasingly more susceptible to encounter once they reach maturity.

Additionally, we take the opportunity to present the processing pipeline that has been developed within the Open-Earth-Monitor cyberinfrastructure (OEMC) project to make such analysis possible and reproducible. This includes improvements to better handle local topographic effects and testing the capacity to run the entire pipeline within a Discrete Global Grid System (DGGS) framework that preserves area and neighbourhood properties within the space-for-time moving window. We expect that these tools will facilitate data integration and model evaluation, thereby assisting research in land-atmosphere interactions and climate extremes.

How to cite: Duveiller, G., Pabon-Moreno, D. E., Caporaso, L., Loos, D., Xie, D., Weynants, M., Winkler, A. J., and Cescatti, A.: How much does afforestation’s impact on local land surface temperature vary in space, in time, and during dry and hot extreme events? , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16332, 2025.

EGU25-16372 | Orals | CL4.4

On the definition of extreme evaporation events 

Yannis Markonis

Even though evaporation is a crucial component of the energy and water cycles, its extremes remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, this study introduces a statistical framework defining Extreme Evaporation Events (ExEvEs) as individual events with onset and termination. Despite their statistical definition, ExEvEs are shown to have a physical basis, as they relate to radiation and/or precipitation—the main energy and water sources for land evaporation. By applying this methodological approach over Czechia, we can see that ExEvEs tend to form clusters of heightened evaporation lasting several days which fluctuate differently than the average evaporation resulting to significant implications for water availability and regional water cycle's acceleration. The proposed event-based framework provides a systematic way to detect, characterize, and analyse evaporation extremes, which helps to improve our understanding of their drivers and impacts.

How to cite: Markonis, Y.: On the definition of extreme evaporation events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16372, 2025.

EGU25-16413 | Posters on site | CL4.4

A Holistic Multi-Index Approach to Quantify Land Feedback Strength Across Evapotranspiration Regimes 

Sandipan Paul and Karthikeyan Lanka

Soil moisture (SM) is a critical Earth system variable that regulates the cyclicity of water, energy, and carbon, through which SM determines the evolution and thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Land and atmospheric is tightly coupled in the water-limited regime (WLR), while the coupling strength diminishes in the energy-limited regime (ELR). Specifically, in response to progressive SM drying in the WLR, SM fractionates the net insolation into a greater proportion of sensible heat flux (SHF) and a smaller amount of latent heat flux (LHF), owing to the depletion of moisture. This phenomenon results in reduced land surface cooling, increased air temperature, expansion of the boundary layer, and subsequently enhances the land-atmosphere feedback. Further continuation of SM depletion leads to dry hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and heatwaves. Consequently, understanding regime-specific coupled water-energy dynamics is fundamental to comprehending such extremes.

We propose a new metric called Land Feedback Strength (LFS) that combines three indices: sensitivity index (SI), variability index (VI) and regime persistence index (RPI). This formulation over the past attempts facilitates to effectively characterise the important components of LFS, which holistically quantify the terrestrial leg of land-atmospheric coupling. SI quantifies the responsiveness of SM to surface energy partitioning and is defined as the slope between SM and EF (LHF/LHF+SHF) in the WLR. Specifically, we observe higher SM sensitivity in semi-arid and sub-humid regions than in wet regions, indicating that the landscape rapidly responds to SM losses and begins influencing the atmosphere instantaneously. In addition, VI quantifies the sufficiency of SM to act as a dominant forcing and is calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation of SM in the WLR to WLR and ELR. While strong coupling is expected where higher sensitivity and sufficient SM variation are present, the coupling strength is exacerbated with the increasing persistence of the WLR. Thus, the RPI is formulated to indicate the likelihood of a landscape remaining in the WLR within a certain period. Furthermore, to quantify the LFS, we initially delineate global regimes using the coverability of SM and EF data pairs during drydowns.

This study’s findings indicate the following: (1) the highest sensitivity is observed during the dry seasons, whereas sensitivity is lowest during the summer; (2) SM variability is predominantly confined to WLR during winter and spring, with approximately equal variability in both regimes noted during autumn, and variability predominantly occurring in ELR during summer; (3) ELR is prevalent during summer in response to precipitation pulses, WLR and ELR demonstrate comparable likelihood in autumn, and WLR becomes predominant during winter and spring; (4) consequently, LFS is at its lowest during summer, increases in autumn, and further intensifies in winter; (5) LFS has facilitated the identification of two groups of strong coupling hotspots – with relatively higher intensity over the western USA and Austrian shrubland, African and Brazilian savannah, and lower intensity over Sahelian grassland, and peninsular India (6) LFS is found to be higher in semi-arid and sub-humid regions or savanna and grassland areas than forested or humid regions.

How to cite: Paul, S. and Lanka, K.: A Holistic Multi-Index Approach to Quantify Land Feedback Strength Across Evapotranspiration Regimes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16413, 2025.

EGU25-16565 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Expanding Amazon dry-hot season under anthropogenic climate change 

Mengxin Pan, Shineng Hu, Mark M. Janko, Benjamin F. Zaitchik, and William K. Pan

The Amazon rainforest, a crucial global carbon sink, plays a vital role in the global climate system. As ongoing climate change and local deforestation push the Amazon toward a critical tipping point, understanding the region's changing climate patterns becomes increasingly important. In this study, we reveal a significant expansion of the dry-hot season across the Amazon rainforest from 1980-2022, creating prolonged adverse climate conditions for the ecosystem and local communities. A machine learning clustering algorithm is used to define the dry-hot season automatically by considering the temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture simultaneously.

The land-atmosphere interaction predominates the dry-hot season expansion in the Amazon. During the dry season (Aug-Oct), the daily maximum temperature has warmed by ~1 degree per decade, much faster than that in the wet seasons (~0.4 degree per decade). By the surface heat budget analysis, we found that intensive dry-season warming is predominantly driven by reduced evapotranspiration, leading to decreased surface latent heat flux and increased shortwave radiation due to diminished cloud cover. The declining evapotranspiration rates stem from a combination of increasing soil moisture deficits and local deforestation.

By large-ensemble climate model simulations, we further demonstrate that this dry-hot season expansion is highly unlikely to occur without anthropogenic climate change and this expansion will exacerbate under future warming scenarios. By single-forcing experiment, we further confirm the critical role of local deforestation in amplifying this expansion. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect this vital ecosystem from the compounding effects of climate change and deforestation.

How to cite: Pan, M., Hu, S., Janko, M. M., Zaitchik, B. F., and Pan, W. K.: Expanding Amazon dry-hot season under anthropogenic climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16565, 2025.

EGU25-16957 | Orals | CL4.4

Heat capacity, cooling efficiency and drought stress of vegetated surfaces 

Matteo Zampieri, Matteo Piccardo, Guido Ceccherini, Marco Girardello, Ibrahim Hoteit, and Alessandro Cescatti

Drought stress has profound impacts on ecosystems and societies, particularly in the context of climate change. Traditional drought indicators, which rely on integrated surface water budget anomalies at various time scales and thresholds derived from past climate variability, provide valuable insights but often fail to deliver clear and direct real-time assessments of drought stress on vegetation.

This study introduces the Cooling Efficiency Factor (CEF), a novel metric derived from geostationary satellite observations, to detect drought stress by analyzing daytime surface warming anomalies. The CEF is based on the principle that dry surfaces warm more rapidly than wet ones under identical radiative forcing due to reduced evapotranspiration caused by soil moisture limitation and by stomatal closure, altering the effective heat capacity of the land surface.

By leveraging high-frequency, high-resolution retrievals of land surface temperature (LST) and radiation data from geostationary satellites, this study demonstrates the CEF's ability to assess drought stress conditions. The CEF correlates strongly with evapotranspiration anomalies from established datasets, including GLEAM, ERA5-Land, and TerraClimate. Results underscore the CEF's sensitivity to vegetation type, soil moisture variability, and environmental conditions, illustrating its effectiveness in identifying drought stress compared to traditional indicators.

The CEF represents a promising tool for real-time drought monitoring and integration into early warning systems, particularly for arid and semi-arid regions. By complementing existing drought assessment methods, the CEF paves the way for advancements in land-surface process studies and improved drought risk management.

How to cite: Zampieri, M., Piccardo, M., Ceccherini, G., Girardello, M., Hoteit, I., and Cescatti, A.: Heat capacity, cooling efficiency and drought stress of vegetated surfaces, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16957, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16957, 2025.

EGU25-17114 | ECS | Orals | CL4.4

Increases in extreme ET leading to a higher risk of flash droughts 

Marius Egli, Vincent Humphrey, Sebastian Sippel, and Reto Knutti

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial process liking the surface energy balance, the hydrological and the carbon cycles. However, ET often remains underexplored due to climate model limitations as well as sparse and poor observational coverage.

While mean ET projections of CMIP6 models are highly uncertain, we explore whether climate models are in clearer agreement in terms of extreme ET, similar to what has been shown for mean versus extreme precipitation. We first define extreme ET (ETxx) as the annual 7-day ET maximum and investigate the physical drivers behind such events in a mid-latitude region (Central Europe). Typically, extreme ET events are characterized by high temperatures and incoming surface radiation, characteristic of a heat wave.  

We find an increase in extreme ET during the recent historical period and throughout scenario SSP5-8.5 in most CMIP6 models, together with a shift of these extremes from summer towards spring. We also find a higher degree of climate model agreement in the ET extremes, partially due to constraints in the boundary conditions of such an event, meaning that the drivers behind an extreme ET event are better constrained than the drivers of annual mean ET. This is a somewhat expected result due to the increase in vapor pressure deficit with higher temperature. The agreement also extends to all considered observational products, which agree on an increase in extreme ET, however the magnitude of this increase remains uncertain across observations-based products. We find that the observed trends lie outside the likely range of trends found in unforced climate simulations, indicating that the recent shift in observed extreme ET is attributable to climate change. We further find that records in extreme ET have been disproportionally set in more recent years, compared to what would be expected in a stationary climate in both observations and CMIP6 models.

Overall, mean ET projections and trends are complex and notoriously uncertain. Here we show that extreme ET events are better constrained than mean ET projections, making them a natural target for more robust inference from observations, attribution studies and emergent constraints. Our findings indicate an elevated risk for flash drought due to higher evaporative demand. The fact that future changes in peak water demand are less uncertain than changes in the mean demand is a highly relevant information for decision-makers and for the design of future water supply infrastructure (such as irrigation systems).

How to cite: Egli, M., Humphrey, V., Sippel, S., and Knutti, R.: Increases in extreme ET leading to a higher risk of flash droughts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17114, 2025.

EGU25-18334 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.4

Assessing soil moisture-induced changes in land carbon sink projections of CMIP6 models 

Lea Gabele, Petra Sieber, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, and Sonia Seneviratne

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about one third of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and thereby dampens human-induced climate change. However, its capacity to act as a carbon sink depends on climate conditions, including temperature and water availability. Uncertainties in both future climate conditions and the response of the terrestrial biosphere lead to greatly diverging projections of the land carbon sink among state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs).

Previous research identified soil moisture (SM) as a critical factor that can restrict land carbon uptake through water limitation and the intensification and prolongation of heat extremes. Green et al. (2019) demonstrated the severe negative impact of reduced SM on long-term land carbon sink projections of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using dedicated experiments isolating the effects of SM.

Here, we use equivalent experiments performed with four ESMs participating in CMIP6 to investigate the impact and uncertainty of SM-induced changes in land carbon sink projections by the end of the century (2070-2099). Our results demonstrate a substantial reduction in the negative impact of SM on the global land carbon sink compared to the previous model generation. Models agree on a SM-induced reduction in land carbon uptake in summer, consistent with an overall SM decline across models, while intermodel uncertainty remains high in spring, particularly regarding the effects of SM variability at mid-to-high latitudes. Additionally, high uncertainty in SM-induced impact on annual carbon uptake persists in the tropics and northern mid-latitudes, driven by differences in the sensitivity of carbon uptake to SM but also disagreement in SM projections across models.

We extend our analysis to a larger ensemble of CMIP6 models that have not performed the SM experiments. To this end, we employ the methods of Schwingshackl et al. (2018), which utilize the distinct link between SM and the evaporative fraction in the different SM regimes. Using this relationship we emulate the impact of SM on the land carbon sink in regions where land carbon uptake is controlled by SM.

The study aims to gain insights into SM-induced impacts and related uncertainties in land carbon sink projections of CMIP6 models, highlighting the ongoing challenge of accurately projecting SM-induced changes in the land carbon sink.

 

References:


Green, J. K., Seneviratne, S. I., Berg, A. M., Findell, K. L., Hagemann, S., Lawrence, D. M., & Gentine, P. (2019). Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature, 565(7740), 476-479. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0848-x 

Schwingshackl, C., Hirschi, M., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2018). A theoretical approach to assess soil moisture–climate coupling across CMIP5 and GLACE-CMIP5 experiments. Earth System Dynamics, 9(4), 1217-1234. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1217-2018

How to cite: Gabele, L., Sieber, P., Hauser, M., Hirschi, M., and Seneviratne, S.: Assessing soil moisture-induced changes in land carbon sink projections of CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18334, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18334, 2025.

EGU25-19778 * | ECS | Orals | CL4.4 | Highlight

Observed and projected increase of extreme precipitation events on dry soils 

Damián Insua Costa, Chiara M. Holgate, and Diego G. Miralles

Dry soils are associated with low infiltration capacity and increased runoff due to surface crust formation. Therefore, the occurrence of heavy rainfall on dry soils poses a higher risk of flooding. In recent years, abrupt changes from extremely dry to extremely wet conditions have attracted the attention of researchers, and terms such as precipitation whiplash or precipitation volatility have gained currency to refer to these phenomena. Most studies have focused on investigating these episodes on seasonal or annual scales, i.e. changes from very dry to very wet seasons or years. Here, we focus on analysing these events on a daily scale, i.e. the change from very dry to very wet conditions from one day to the next. For this purpose, dry conditions are detected using a threshold in soil moisture and not the rainfall deficit, which would be meaningless on a daily scale. We argue that this approach is more closely related to flash flood risk. Our results based on reanalysis data show that the global frequency of extreme precipitation events on dry soils has increased dramatically in recent decades, at a rate higher than predicted by historical climate model simulations. Furthermore, we show that this trend will continue to increase based on future projections. Specifically, we estimate that the global probability of such an event will more than double by the end of the present century compared to the pre-industrial era under a high-emissions scenario. Finally, we shed light on whether this trend is dominated by an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation and dry soils independently, or rather is related to an increase in the probability of concurrence of both, which could be indicative of a negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback.

How to cite: Insua Costa, D., M. Holgate, C., and G. Miralles, D.: Observed and projected increase of extreme precipitation events on dry soils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19778, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19778, 2025.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the North Atlantic (NA) have a significant impact on the weather and climate in both local and remote regions. This study first evaluated the seasonal prediction skill of NA SSTA using the North American multi-model ensemble and found that its performance is limited across various regions and seasons. Therefore, this study constructs models based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) network machine learning method to improve the seasonal prediction of NA SSTA. Results show that the seasonal prediction skill can be significantly improved by LSTM models since they show higher capability to capture nonlinear processes such as the impact of El Nin ̃o-Southern Oscillation on NA SSTA. This study shows the great potential of the LSTM model on the seasonal prediction of NA SSTA and provides new clues to improve the seasonal predictions of SSTA in other regions.

How to cite: Yan, X. and Tang, Y.: Seasonal prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies using the LSTM machine learning method , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-153, 2025.

EGU25-3747 | Orals | CL4.6

Bridging paleoclimate and seasonal climate prediction: The case of European summer climate 

Martin Wegmann and Stefan Brönnimann

Understanding monthly-to-annual climate variability is essential for improving climate forecast products as well as adapting to future climate extremes. Previous studies show, that European summer climate, including temperature and precipitation extremes, is modulated by hemispheric large-scale circulation patterns, which themselves are connected to Earth system components such as sea surface temperature across temporal scales. Nevertheless, it remains unclear as to how stationary these teleconnections are and if their predictive power is potent across multiple centuries and background climates. By combining d18O isotopes from a European tree ring network with independent paleo-climate reanalyses, we highlight precursors and atmospheric dynamics behind European summer climate over the last 400 years.

We further present evidence that centennial ensemble seasonal climate forecasts capture the causality of the atmospheric
dynamics behind these teleconnections in the 20th century. Our results suggest that tropical sea surface temperature anomalies trigger specific precipitation and diabatic heating patterns which are dynamically connected to extratropical Rossby wave trains and the formation of a circumglobal teleconnection pattern weeks later.

How to cite: Wegmann, M. and Brönnimann, S.: Bridging paleoclimate and seasonal climate prediction: The case of European summer climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3747, 2025.

EGU25-3839 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.6

Causal Links Between North Atlantic SSTs and Summer East Atlantic Pattern Predictability: Implications for Seasonal Forecasting 

Julianna Carvalho Oliveira, Giorgia Di Capua, Leonard F. Borchert, Reik V. Donner, and Johanna Baehr

We use causal effect networks to assess the influence of spring North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NA-SSTs) on summer East Atlantic (EA) pattern predictability during 1908–2008. In the ERA-20C reanalysis, a robust causal link is identified for 1958–2008, where the spring meridional SST gradient causes a 0.2 standard deviation change in the summer EA. Additionally, the spring meridional SST index has an estimated negative causal effect (~−0.2) on summer 2m air temperatures over northwestern Europe. However, both links are absent when analysing the full period and are sensitive to interannual variability.

Analysis of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model in mixed resolution (MPI-ESM-MR) shows that historical simulations fail to reproduce the observed causal links, while initialised ensembles occasionally capture them but underestimate their strength. Predictive skill assessments conditioned on these causal links indicate limited overall impact but suggest potential local improvements for European summer climate forecasts. These findings underscore the value of causal approaches for refining seasonal predictability.

How to cite: Carvalho Oliveira, J., Di Capua, G., Borchert, L. F., Donner, R. V., and Baehr, J.: Causal Links Between North Atlantic SSTs and Summer East Atlantic Pattern Predictability: Implications for Seasonal Forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3839, 2025.

EGU25-5880 | Orals | CL4.6

Intermittency of seasonal forecast skill for the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern  

Laura Baker, Len Shaffrey, Antje Weisheimer, and Stephanie Johnson

The wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EA) are the two leading modes of North Atlantic pressure variability and have a substantial impact on winter weather in Europe. The year-to-year contributions to multi-model seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S ensemble of seven prediction systems are assessed for the wintertime NAO and EA, and well-forecast and poorly-forecast years are identified. Years with high NAO predictability are associated with substantial tropical forcing, generally from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while poor forecasts of the NAO occur when ENSO forcing is weak. Well-forecast EA winters also generally occurred when there was substantial tropical forcing, although the relationship was less robust than for the NAO. These results support previous findings of the impacts of tropical forcing on the North Atlantic and show this is important from a multi-model seasonal forecasting perspective.

How to cite: Baker, L., Shaffrey, L., Weisheimer, A., and Johnson, S.: Intermittency of seasonal forecast skill for the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5880, 2025.

EGU25-6006 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

 Investigating the sensitivity of 20th century seasonal hindcasts to tropospheric aerosol forcing 

Matthew Wright, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Woollings, Retish Senan, and Timothy Stockdale

Previous studies have identified multi-decadal variations in the skill of winter seasonal forecasts of large-scale climate indices, including ENSO, the PNA, and NAO. Forecast skill is significantly lower in the middle of the 20th century (1940—1960) than at the start or end of the century. We hypothesise that tropospheric aerosol forcing, which is spatially and temporally heterogeneous and poorly constrained in the hindcasts used in previous studies, contributes to this low skill mid-century period.

This study assesses the sensitivity of ECMWF’s state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting model to tropospheric aerosol forcing, using a newly developed aerosol forcing dataset based on CEDS emissions data. We analyse DJF hindcasts initialised every November from 1925—2010, each with 21 ensemble members. For each year, we run hindcasts with ‘best guess’, doubled, and halved aerosol forcing (perturbing both anthropogenic and natural aerosols). All experiments exhibit similar multi-decadal variability in skill for large-scale climate indices. Aerosol forcing has no significant impact on forecast skill but some impacts on mean biases, suggesting other factors drive the mid-century skill minimum.

Aerosol forcing has large regional impacts. Increasing aerosol forcing leads to cooler 2m temperature and SSTs globally, with amplified cooling in regions with large aerosol forcings, such as northern India and North Africa. Dynamical responses include an ‘anti-monsoon’ circulation over Africa, with a weakening of the trade winds and Atlantic Walker circulation, and local southwards shift of the ITCZ. The magnitude of the response increases when ocean initial conditions are perturbed to represent the cumulative impact of aerosol forcing, suggesting that coupling enhances the atmospheric response.

These results highlight the model’s sensitivity to tropospheric aerosols, with large differences in bias and mean state after four months, despite limited impact on skill. The circulation changes over Africa warrant further investigation, with implications for future aerosol scenarios. Planned experiments will explore the impact in summer and quantify the timescale of the response to aerosols.

How to cite: Wright, M., Weisheimer, A., Woollings, T., Senan, R., and Stockdale, T.:  Investigating the sensitivity of 20th century seasonal hindcasts to tropospheric aerosol forcing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6006, 2025.

This study shows a close relationship between winter Arctic sea ice concentration (WASIC) anomalies in the Barents-Greenland Seas and the subsequent autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) based on the observational analysis and numerical simulations. Particularly, more (less) WASIC in the Barents-Greenland Seas tends to lead to a positive (negative) IOD in the following autumn. Above-normal WASIC in the Barents-Greenland Seas results in reduction of the upward turbulent heat flux and induces tropospheric cooling over the Arctic. This tropospheric cooling triggers an atmospheric teleconnection extending from the Eurasian Arctic to the subtropical North Pacific. Numerical experiments with both the linear barotropic model and atmospheric general circulation model can well capture the atmospheric teleconnection associated with the WASIC anomalies. The subtropical atmospheric anomalies generated by the WASIC anomalies then result in subtropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming, which sustains and expands southward to the equatorial central Pacific during the following summer via a wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The resulting equatorial central Pacific SST warming anomalies induce local atmospheric heating and trigger an anomalous Walker circulation with descending motion and low-level anomalous southeasterly winds over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. These anomalous southeasterly winds trigger positive air-sea interaction in the tropical Indian Ocean and contribute to the development of the IOD. The close connection of the WASIC anomalies with the subsequent IOD and the underlying physical processes can be reproduced by the coupled climate models participated in the CMIP6. These results indicate that the condition of WASIC is a potential effective precursor of IOD events.

How to cite: Xin, C.: Influence of winter Arctic sea ice anomalies on the following autumn Indian Ocean Dipole development, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6176, 2025.

EGU25-7163 | Orals | CL4.6

Robust decadal predictability of cold surge frequency in Taiwan and East Asia through teleconnection of North Atlantic Oscillation 

Wan-Ling Tseng, Yi-Chi Wang, Ying-Ting Chen, Yi-Hui Wang, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, and Chi-Cherng Hong

This study investigates the decadal predictability of cold surge frequency (CSF) in East Asia, including Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, through the lens of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The findings suggest that extreme events such as cold surges can be predicted on decadal timescales when the teleconnection mechanism is robustly established. The study revisits and consolidates the dynamical mechanisms underlying wave propagation and the teleconnection between the NAO and the East Asian trough, highlighting their role in creating a winter environment conducive to cold surges in Taiwan and East Asia. The study demonstrates the skill of climate models in capturing the NAO's decadal variability, and develops a statistical-dynamical hybrid approach. This method integrates decadal prediction datasets with a statistical model to enhance the prediction of extreme cold surge occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. The results of the study underscore the scientific significance of merging climate dynamical mechanisms with decadal prediction systems for extreme events, and introduce a hybrid framework that combines numerical decadal climate predictions with statistical regression models. This addresses the challenges posed by biases in climate prediction models and advances the capability to predict regional extreme events such as cold surges.

How to cite: Tseng, W.-L., Wang, Y.-C., Chen, Y.-T., Wang, Y.-H., Hsu, H.-H., and Hong, C.-C.: Robust decadal predictability of cold surge frequency in Taiwan and East Asia through teleconnection of North Atlantic Oscillation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7163, 2025.

EGU25-8693 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

Decadal prediction for the European Energy Sector 

Benjamin Hutchins, David Brayshaw, Len Shaffrey, Hazel Thornton, and Doug Smith

The timescale of decadal climate predictions, from a year-ahead up to a decade, is an important planning horizon for stakeholders in the energy sector. With power systems transitioning towards a greater share of renewables, these systems become more vulnerable to the impacts of both climate variability and climate change. As decadal predictions sample both the internal variability of the climate and the externally forced response, these forecasts can provide useful information for the upcoming decade. 

There are two main ways in which decadal predictions can benefit the energy sector. Firstly, they can be used to try to predict how a variable of interest, such as average temperature, may evolve over the coming year or decade. Secondly, a large ensemble of decadal predictions can be aggregated into a large synthetic event set to explore physically plausible extremes, such as winter wind droughts. 

We find predictive skill at decadal timescales for surface variables over Europe during both winter (ONDJFM) and summer (AMJJAS). Although this skill is patchy, there are regions of relevance to the energy sector, such as over the UK for temperature, where this skill emerges. We find significant skill when using pattern-based (e.g., NAO) approaches to make predictions of European energy indicators during the extended winter, including Northern Europe offshore wind generation, Spanish solar generation, and Scandinavian precipitation. For predicting UK electricity demand, we find significant skill when directly using the model predictions of surface temperature. Our results highlight the potential for operational decadal predictions for the energy system, with potential benefits for both the planning and operation of the future power system. 

How to cite: Hutchins, B., Brayshaw, D., Shaffrey, L., Thornton, H., and Smith, D.: Decadal prediction for the European Energy Sector, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8693, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8693, 2025.

EGU25-8904 | Orals | CL4.6

On the predictive skill for warm spells in Germany across seasons  

Fabiana Castino, Tobias Geiger, Alexander Pasternack, Andreas Paxian, Clementine Dalelane, and Frank Kreienkamp

Intense warm spells, such as heatwaves, can significantly impact human health, the environment, and socio-economic systems. Although heatwaves are typically associated with summer, the occurrence of warm spells during cold seasons can also have profound effects on various sectors. While some effects, such as reduced cold-related mortality, can be considered beneficial, the long-term consequences, e.g. on ecosystems, forests, and agriculture, are concerning. Warm spells during the cold seasons can alter the natural dormancy cycles of plants, causing premature sprouting, flowering, or growth and negatively affecting crop yield and quality. In addition, cold season warm spells can reduce snow accumulation in mountainous regions, potentially affecting downstream water availability. As climate change drives increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of warm spells, their impacts are becoming more severe and far-reaching. This makes predicting such events a key priority for climate science and risk management.

Climate forecast models offer the potential to predict extreme events like warm spells weeks to months in advance, becoming increasingly relevant for decision-making across various socio-economic sectors. This study examines the predictive skill of the downscaled German Climate Forecast System Version 2.1 (GCFS2.1) for warm spells in Germany on a seasonal scale, encompassing both warm seasons (spring and summer) and cold seasons (autumn and winter).  The analysis relies on hindcast data from the 1991-2020 base period, statistically downscaled to 5 km resolution. It evaluates multiple extreme temperature climate indices, as for example the Warm Spells Duration index, and applies various statistical metrics to assess the predictive skill. The findings reveal high heterogeneity in the ability of the (downscaled) GCFS2.1 to forecast warm spells across seasons, with higher predictive skill during the cold seasons but more limited for the warm seasons.

How to cite: Castino, F., Geiger, T., Pasternack, A., Paxian, A., Dalelane, C., and Kreienkamp, F.: On the predictive skill for warm spells in Germany across seasons , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8904, 2025.

EGU25-8980 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

Predicting North Atlantic Temperature Trends with the Analogue Method using the MPI CMIP6 Grand Ensemble 

Lara Heyl, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr

The analogue method is a powerful and efficient tool for climate predictions, particularly in regions like the North Atlantic, where impacts of climate change have been relatively modest. While climate projections effectively estimate global mean surface temperature trends over a century, decadal trends in the North Atlantic diverge from the global trend. Here, we leverage on the similar evolution of analogous patterns on a decadal time scale by comparing SST patterns in observed data with patterns from an existing simulation ensemble. We apply this method to ten-year SST trend reconstructions in the North Atlantic using the MPI CMIP6 grand ensemble. In addition, we assess the impact of volcanic eruptions on the quality of the SST trend reconstruction for the time period 1960-2019. We also provide a prediction for 2020–2029. We find that the analogue method delivers high correlation of SST trend reconstructions with observed trends for the MPI CMIP6 grand ensemble. Volcanic influence can be accounted for by trimming the time series to those times unaffected by volcanic eruptions, which results in a higher correlation. Our results suggest that the decadal predictions of SST trends might also be achieved without the need for new, computationally expensive simulations.

How to cite: Heyl, L., Brune, S., and Baehr, J.: Predicting North Atlantic Temperature Trends with the Analogue Method using the MPI CMIP6 Grand Ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8980, 2025.

EGU25-9006 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Is the winter mean NAO white noise? Models and observations. 

Bo Christiansen and Shuting Yang

The NAO is a dominant mode of variability in the Northern Hemisphere with strong impacts on temperature, precipitation, and storminess. The predictive skill of the NAO on annual to decadal scales is therefore an important topic, which is often studied using, e.g., (initialized) climate models. The temporal structure is closely related to the predictability, and on inter-annual time scales the observed NAO is frequently described to have power at 2-7 years and sometimes with a distinct peak around 7 or 8 years.  However, the observational record is brief, and such estimations have high uncertainty.

Here, we present a thorough study to answer the questions: is the winter mean NAO different from white noise and is the observed NAO different from the NAO in historical experiments with contemporary climate models (CMIP6)? To this end we use a range of statistical tools in both the temporal and spectral domain: Power-spectra, wavelet-spectra, autoregressive models, and various well-known time-series statistics.

Overall, we find little evidence to reject that the NAO is white noise. For observations, the peak in the power-spectrum at 8 years is, taken individually, significant in the period after 1950 but not before. However, considering the complete spectrum, significant peaks will often occur at some frequency, even for white noise.  The large CMIP6 multi-model ensemble is statistically very similar to an ensemble of similar size of white noise, e.g., the ensemble averages of the power spectrum and the wavelet spectra are completely flat.  Furthermore, for both observations and the model ensemble the tests based on autoregressive modelling and time-series statistics do not reject the null-hypothesis of white noise.

How to cite: Christiansen, B. and Yang, S.: Is the winter mean NAO white noise? Models and observations., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9006, 2025.

EGU25-10305 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.6

Towards improved forecast initialisations with an observation-informed ocean grid 

Marlene Klockmann, Kai Logemann, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr

For climate forecasts it is crucial to initialise the ocean state from observations because they rely on the memory of the ocean. If, however, the initialised ocean state is far away from the model’s own preferred mean state, predictive skill will suffer due to model drift. We are testing whether an ocean grid with variable resolution - designed to represent sparse and well-observed regions with appropriate resolution - has advantages over an ordinary grid with uniform resolution. The locally high resolution could lead to an improved mean ocean state through a better representation of mesoscale processes. The observation-informed grid will allow for high-resolution data assimilation in well-observed areas, which will potentially lead to improved initial conditions and predictive skill.  

We developed such a grid for the ocean component of the coupled ICON model designed for seamless predictions (ICON-XPP). The grid resolution varies from 40 to 10km, depending on the observation density in the EN4 database from 1960 to 2023. The local refinement in well-observed areas leads to a better representation of ocean features such as fronts and western boundary currents. We assess the effect of these improvements on the mean climate state by comparing to a reference simulation with a uniform 20km ocean resolution. 

 

How to cite: Klockmann, M., Logemann, K., Brune, S., and Baehr, J.: Towards improved forecast initialisations with an observation-informed ocean grid, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10305, 2025.

EGU25-10747 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Ocean–atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability 

Panos J. Athanasiadis, Casey Patrizio, Doug M. Smith, and Dario Nicolì

Recent studies using initialised large-ensemble re-forecasts have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits significant decadal predictability, which is of great importance to society given the significant climate anomalies that accompany the NAO. However, the key physical processes underlying this predictability, including the role of ocean–atmosphere interactions, have not yet been pinned down. Also, a critical deficiency in the representation of the associated predictable signal by climate models has been identified in recent studies (the signal-to-noise problem), still lacking an explanation.

In this study, the decadal prediction skill for the NAO and the interactions of the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies with the underlying ocean are assessed using retrospective forecasts from eight decadal prediction systems and observation-based data. We find considerable spread in the NAO skill across these systems and critically, that this is linked to differences in the representation of ocean–NAO interactions across the systems. Evidence is presented that the NAO skill depends on a direct positive feedback between subpolar sea surface temperature anomalies and the NAO, which varies in strength across the prediction systems, yet may still be too weak even in the most skillful systems compared to the observational estimate. This positive feedback is opposed by a delayed negative feedback between the NAO and the ocean circulation that also contributes to disparities in the NAO skill across systems. Our findings therefore suggest that North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions are central to NAO decadal predictability. Finally, it is suggested that errors in the representation of these interactions may be contributing significantly to the signal-to-noise problem.

How to cite: Athanasiadis, P. J., Patrizio, C., Smith, D. M., and Nicolì, D.: Ocean–atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10747, 2025.

EGU25-10815 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Planktonic foraminifera as a tool of past seasonality reconstruction 

Zhoufei Yu, Baohua Li, and Shuai Zhang

Seasonal changes in seawater temperature leave large imprints on the stable oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of planktonic foraminiferal tests, based on which the past seasonal changes can be reconstructed. However, there are still problems needed to be figured out in regard to this new method, to improve the reliability of seasonality reconstruction. For example, the selected foraminiferal species, the used size fraction, and the sample area. As a result, by analyzing planktonic foraminiferal test δ18O from the sediment trap samples deployed in the South China Sea, we found that foraminiferal seasonal δ18O signal is strongly distorted (amplified or damped) by seasonal variations in their habitat depth, particularly for the species living in low latitude. Furthermore, Globigerinoides ruber of 300-355 um can record the most comprehensive seawater seasonality information. This study provides strong support to the reconstruction of past seawater seasonal temperature by using individual planktonic foraminifera.

How to cite: Yu, Z., Li, B., and Zhang, S.: Planktonic foraminifera as a tool of past seasonality reconstruction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10815, 2025.

EGU25-11024 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

Skill assessment of a multi-system ensemble of initialized 20-year predictions 

Dario Nicolì, Sebastiano Roncoroni, Wolfgang A. Mueller, Holger Pohlmann, Sebastian Brune, Markus Donat, Rashed Mahmood, Steve Yeager, William J. Merryfield, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, and Panos J. Athanasiadis

Decadal predictions have advanced greatly in recent years: not only have they become operational worldwide and have been demonstrated to be skillful in various aspects of climate variability, including predicting changes in the atmospheric circulation and in the occurrence of extremes several years ahead, but —as such— they are also being used increasingly in climate services. Climate adaptation and policy making, however, also require climate predictions that go beyond the 10-year horizon. For climate information beyond 10 years into the future, uninitialized climate projections, which completely miss any predictability stemming from internal variability, have been the only available product. Trying to account for this lack of information in climate projections regarding any predictable components of internal variability, methods to constrain climate projections using information from large ensembles of initialized decadal predictions have been developed and have been shown to reduce the uncertainty and increase the skill of climate projections, even beyond the 10-year horizon. The demonstrated benefits of such indirect methods to account for predictable internal variability indicate that the latter remains significant beyond the 10-year limit of decadal predictions. Hence, directly harnessing this predictability through running initialized 20-year predictions emerges as a strategic endeavour.
In this study a novel, multi-system ensemble of initialized extended-decadal predictions is assessed. These predictions consist of a grand ensemble of 71 members derived from 6 forecast systems. They are initialized every 5 years from 1960 onward and run ahead for 20 years. Our analysis uses an elaborate drift- and bias-correction method that accounts for the correct representation of trends. Importantly, we show significant skill against observations for a number of variables (fields and indices), even in the second decade of the forecasts. The origin of such predictability is discussed together with the limitations of these 20-year predictions. The respective experimental protocol was defined in the framework of the ASPECT EU project and has been proposed as a tier-2 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7).

How to cite: Nicolì, D., Roncoroni, S., Mueller, W. A., Pohlmann, H., Brune, S., Donat, M., Mahmood, R., Yeager, S., Merryfield, W. J., Sospedra-Alfonso, R., and Athanasiadis, P. J.: Skill assessment of a multi-system ensemble of initialized 20-year predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11024, 2025.

EGU25-11166 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

Multidecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to Europe in early-winter and implications for seasonal forecasting 

Pablo Fernández-Castillo, Teresa Losada, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca, Diego García-Maroto, Elsa Mohino, and Luis Durán

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of global climate variability. Through its associated teleconnections, ENSO can impact the climate of numerous regions worldwide at seasonal timescales, highlighting its role as the main source of seasonal predictability. Numerous studies have demonstrated a significant influence of ENSO on the climate of the Euro-Atlantic sector, but the impacts and mechanisms of the teleconnection in early-winter (November-December) remain unclear. Besides, in early-winter, ENSO teleconnections involve tropospheric pathways, which may change in response to different background states of the ocean. Thus, a crucial research question to address is whether the early-winter teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic sector has changed under the different background states of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean. 

 

This work aims to analyse the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic sector from a nonstationary perspective. Specifically, the teleconnection is analysed under different background states of SST over the Pacific Ocean, related to changes in the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using observational and reanalysis datasets for the period 1950-2022, results reveal that the tropospheric pathways of the teleconnection change under the different Pacific SST background states, leading to distinct responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to ENSO. We also confirm that these distinct responses in the North Atlantic entail significantly different impacts of ENSO on the surface climate across Europe, particularly on surface air temperature. Furthermore, the teleconnection is analysed in the SEAS5 state-of-the-art dynamical seasonal prediction model. The analysis within the model is also conducted from a nonstationary perspective, and aims to determine whether the model successfully reproduces a shift in the teleconnection in the late 1990s identified in reanalysis and observations. Results show that the model accurately captures the spatial pattern of the teleconnection impacts across Europe after the late 1990s, but not before. In turn, significant changes in the skill of seasonal forecasts are observed between before and after the late 1990s. However, skill after the late 1990s is just moderate due to a significant underestimation of the teleconnection impacts. 

 

The results of this study shed light on the nonstationary behaviour of the early-winter teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic sector and have important implications on seasonal predictability in Europe. Particularly, the nonstationarity of the teleconnection gives rise to the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, in which forecast skill may be greater than initially expected from a stationary analysis.

How to cite: Fernández-Castillo, P., Losada, T., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., García-Maroto, D., Mohino, E., and Durán, L.: Multidecadal variability of the ENSO teleconnection to Europe in early-winter and implications for seasonal forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11166, 2025.

EGU25-11511 | Orals | CL4.6

Constraining near-term climate projections by combining observations with decadal predictions 

Rémy Bonnet, Julien Boé, and Emilia Sanchez

Reducing the uncertainty associated with internal climate variability over the coming decades is crucial, as this time frame aligns with the strategic planning needs of stakeholders in climate-vulnerable sectors. Three sources of information are available: non-initialized ensembles of climate projections, initialized decadal predictions, and observations. Non-initialized ensembles of climate projections span seamlessly from the historical period to the end of the 21st century, encompassing the full range of uncertainty linked to internal climate variability. Initialized decadal predictions aim to reduce uncertainty from internal climate variability by initializing model simulations with observed oceanic states, phasing the simulated and observed climate variability modes. However, they are usually limited to 5 to 10 years, with small added value after a few years, and they are also subject to drift due to the shock from the initialization. Finally, we can also use observations that can provide information to constrain the climate evolution over the next decades. Providing the best climate information at regional scale over the next decades is therefore challenging. Previous methods addressed this challenge by using information from either the observations or the decadal predictions to constrain uninitialized projections. In this study, we propose a new method to make use of the different sources of information available to provide relevant information about near-term climate change with reduced uncertainty related to internal climate variability. First, we select a sub-ensemble of non-initialized climate simulations based on their similarity to observed predictors with multi-decadal signal potential over Europe, such as Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Then, we further refine this sub-ensemble of trajectories by selecting a subset based on its consistency with decadal predictions. We present a case study focused on predicting near-term future surface temperatures over Europe. To evaluate the effectiveness of this method in providing reliable climate information, we conduct a retrospective analysis over the historical period.

How to cite: Bonnet, R., Boé, J., and Sanchez, E.: Constraining near-term climate projections by combining observations with decadal predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11511, 2025.

EGU25-12107 | Orals | CL4.6

Overcoming the spring predictability barrier with a supermodel 

Noel Keenlyside, Tarkeshwar Singh, Ping-Gin Chiu, Francois Counillon, and Francine Schevenhoven

Climate models suffer from long-standing biases that degrade climate prediction skills. While radically increasing resolution offers promise, we are still many years away from being able to perform operational climate predictions with models that can explicitly resolve the most important physical processes. Here we demonstrate that supermodelling can enhance climate predictions through better using the current generation of models. A supermodel connects different models interactively so that their systematic errors compensate. It differs from the standard non-interactive multi-model ensembles, which combines model outputs a-posteriori. We have developed an ocean-connected Earth System model using NorESM, CESM, and MPIESM in their CMIP5 versions. The model radically improves the simulation of tropical climate, strongly reducing SST and double ITCZ biases. We perform seasonal predictions for the period 1990-2020, initialized through (EnOI) data assimilation of SST. We have performed one forecast per season but are currently extending the ensemble size to ten members. The supermodel shows marked improvement in prediction skill for forecasts started before boreal spring, significantly overcoming the spring predictability barrier. Initial investigation indicates the skill enhancement is connected to better simulation of ocean-atmosphere interaction during the first part of the year, which also leads to improved initial conditions. Our results indicate the importance of better representing the signal-to-noise in the western and central Pacific during boreal spring.

How to cite: Keenlyside, N., Singh, T., Chiu, P.-G., Counillon, F., and Schevenhoven, F.: Overcoming the spring predictability barrier with a supermodel, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12107, 2025.

EGU25-12143 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Probabilistic climate outcomes from prediction aggregation 

Robin Lamboll, Sofia Palazzo Corner, and Moritz Schwarz

Currently, much of the literature around the Paris Agreement, Paris Compliance and manging the transition to net zero requires heavy use of integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs provide economic projections of future emissions, conditional on idealised scenarios. However, for most adaptation and cost-benefit analysis, policymakers require predictions, which IAMs do not even attempt to provide. How can we use aggregated estimates of emissions and resulting climate change to give probability distributions of climate impacts? We outline why human computation likely out-performs other prediction methods and present a flexible method to collect intended predictions from a variety of people to effectively estimate future emissions, temperatures and climate impacts via prediction aggregation platforms. These can subsequently be used to inform estimates of climate impacts. It can also highlight deficiencies in the IAM scenarios literature and indicate relative probabilities of scenarios. We estimate all-uncertainty temperatures in 2050 and outline extensions of the work.

How to cite: Lamboll, R., Palazzo Corner, S., and Schwarz, M.: Probabilistic climate outcomes from prediction aggregation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12143, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12143, 2025.

EGU25-12247 | ECS | Orals | CL4.6

Forecasting monthly-to-seasonal sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves with graph neural networks and diffusion methods 

Varvara Vetrova, Ding Ning, Karin Bryan, and Yun Sing Koh

Knowing future sea surface temperature (SST) patterns play a crucial role not only in industries such as fisheries, shipping and tourism but also in conservation of marine species . For example, DNA of endangered species can be sampled prior to anticipated marine heatwaves to preserve marine biodiversity. Overall, availability of SST forecasts allows to mitigate potential adverse impacts of extreme events such as marine heatwaves. 

There is a strong interest in accurate forecasts of SST and their anomalies on various time scales. The commonly used approaches include physics-based models and machine learning (ML) methods. The first approach is computationally intensive and limited to shorter time scales. While several attempts have been made by the community to adapt ML models to SST forecasts several challenges still remain. These challenges include improving accuracy for longer lead SST anomaly forecasts. 

Here we present an integrated deep-learning based approach to the problem of SST anomalies and MHW forecasting. On one hand, we capitalise both on inherent climate data structure and recent advances in the field of geometric deep learning. We base our approach on a flexible architecture of graph neural networks, well suited for representing teleconnections. From another hand, we adapt the diffusion method to increase lead time of the forecasts.  Our integrated approach allows marine heatwave forecasts up to six months in advance.

How to cite: Vetrova, V., Ning, D., Bryan, K., and Koh, Y. S.: Forecasting monthly-to-seasonal sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves with graph neural networks and diffusion methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12247, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12247, 2025.

The expansion of and increasing dependency on renewable energy that exploit climate variables, such as wind and precipitation, are highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Climate Futures is a Center of Research-based Innovation that aims to “co-produce new and innovative solutions for predicting and managing climate risks from sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) and seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) time scales with a cluster of partners in climate- and weather-sensitive sectors, including the renewable energy sector, through long-term cooperation between businesses, public organizations and research groups.

The aim of the cross-sectoral collaboration is for renewable energy companies to integrate improved climate predictions into their decision making. The long-term implications are a more resilient energy sector and stable power production. Examples of ongoing projects within the center include (1) using large ensemble climate model simulations to estimate near-future changes in precipitation variability, and (2) estimating future wind power production and variability using state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions. These results are important for future wind- and hydropower operations and infrastructure planning.

How to cite: Svendsen, L.: Climate services for and with the renewable energy sector in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12574, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12574, 2025.

EGU25-13076 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Usage of seasonal forecasts in Tropical Cyclone risk models 

Rudy Mustafa, Ulysse Naepels, Hugo Rakotoarimanga, Rémi Meynadier, and Clément Houdard

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose significant risks to lives, infrastructure and economies, especially in coastal areas.

AXA has been developing stochastic natural hazard models (also called natural catastrophe or NatCat models) to quantify the impact of events such as TCs on its portfolios. However, NatCat models tend to model the average annual risk for a given peril. NatCat models do not consider the present state of the atmosphere and therefore are not conditioned with respect to the current tropical cyclone season.

Information about the TC risk in the upcoming weeks or months of a season could be crucial for an insurer, especially regarding its reinsurance coverage, but also for better risk mitigation through reinforced and more efficient prevention systems.

Previous studies have demonstrated that ensemble seasonal forecasts have skill in predicting TC occurrence several weeks in advance. We explore the ability of ensemble seasonal forecasts to provided skilled information on the general activity of the season to come for various lead-times (number of occurrences, number of landfalls, ACE…) and how can NatCat models be adapted to provide a more dynamic vision of the TC risk.

How to cite: Mustafa, R., Naepels, U., Rakotoarimanga, H., Meynadier, R., and Houdard, C.: Usage of seasonal forecasts in Tropical Cyclone risk models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13076, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13076, 2025.

EGU25-13668 | Orals | CL4.6

Forecasting the annual CO2 rise at Mauna Loa 

Richard Betts, Chris Jones, Jeff Knight, John Kennedy, Ralph Keeling, Yuming Jin, James Pope, and Caroline Sandford

For the last 9 years, the Met Office has issued forecasts of the annual increment in atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa, accounting for both anthropogenic emissions and the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on natural carbon sinks and sources. The first forecast was produced when the 2015-2016 El Niño was emerging, and correctly predicted the largest annual CO2 increment on record at the time. In most years, the inclusion of ENSO provides a more skilful forecast than just considering emissions alone, except for 2022-2023 when La Niña conditions in late 2022 were followed by an early emergence of El Niño conditions in the second quarter of 2023. The impacts of interannual differences in emissions on the CO2 rise are usually smaller than those of ENSO variability, except in 2020 when the emergence of an unexpected large drop in global emissions due to societal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic required the forecast to be re-issued with a new estimate of the annual profile of emissions. Our forecast methodology also provides a simple means of tracking the changes in anthropogenic contributions to the annual atmospheric CO2 rise against policy-relevant scenarios. The Met Office forecast for 2023-2024 predicted a relatively large annual CO2 rise, but the observed rise was even larger, with exceptional wildfires in the Americas a likely contributor to the additional increase. Even without the effects of El Niño and other climatic influences on carbon sinks, the human-driven rise in CO2 in 2023-2024 would have been too fast to remain compatible with IPCC AR6 scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C with little or no overshoot. While the 2024-2025 rise is predicted to be smaller than 2023-2024, it will still be above these 1.5°C scenarios.

How to cite: Betts, R., Jones, C., Knight, J., Kennedy, J., Keeling, R., Jin, Y., Pope, J., and Sandford, C.: Forecasting the annual CO2 rise at Mauna Loa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13668, 2025.

EGU25-13771 | Posters on site | CL4.6

Seasonal forecasting of East African short rains 

Giovanni Liguori, Agumase Kindie Tefera, William Cabos, and Antonio Navarra

The variability of East African Short Rains (October-December) has profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts on the region, making accurate seasonal rainfall predictions essential. We evaluated the predictability of East African short rains using model ensembles from the multi-system seasonal retrospective forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We assess the prediction skill for 1- to 5-month lead times using forecasts initialized in September for each year from 1993 to 2016. Although most models exhibit significant mean rainfall biases, they generally show skill in predicting OND (October-December) precipitation anomalies across much of East Africa. However, skill is low or absent in some northern and western parts of the focus area. Along the East African coasts near Somalia and over parts of the western Indian Ocean, models demonstrate skill throughout the late winter (up to December-February), likely due to the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Indian Ocean. Years when models consistently outperform persistence forecasts typically align with the mature phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This latter mode, when tracked using the Dipole Mode Index, is generally able to predict the sign of the rainfall anomaly in all models. Despite East Africa's proximity to the west pole of the IOD, the correlation between short rains and IOD maximizes when both east and west are considered. This finding confirms previous studies based on observational datasets, which indicate that broader-scale IOD variability associated with changes in the Walker Circulation, rather than local SST fluctuations, is the primary driver behind East African rainfall.     

How to cite: Liguori, G., Tefera, A. K., Cabos, W., and Navarra, A.: Seasonal forecasting of East African short rains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13771, 2025.

EGU25-13847 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.6

Decadal Predictions with Diffusion Models: Combining Machine Learning and Earth System Modelling 

Simon Lentz, Johanna Baehr, Christopher Kadow, Johannes Meuer, Felix Oertel, and Bijan Fallah

In the past years, decadal prediction systems have started to fill the gap between seasonal forecasts and long-term climate projections. Despite huge progress in predictive skill and decadal predictions outperforming climate projections in almost all forecast tasks, decadal predictions still possess large rooms for improvement. Machine learning based forecast systems have already outperformed traditional weather forecast systems in recent years. Similarly, machine learning has successfully transformed or assisted in data assimilation or climate data reconstruction tasks. Despite its success in the climate sciences, machine learning methods have not yet been successfully integrated in decadal prediction systems.

Combining machine learning and numerical modeling, we attempt to produce decadal climate predictions utilizing Diffusion Models, essentially probabilistic neural networks. We use such a neural network to predict global 2m-air temperatures by training it on the historical MPI-ESM-LR Grand Ensemble and finetuning it on the MPI-ESM-LR decadal predictions and on ERA5 reanalyses. The resulting predictions are qualitatively comparable to the standard MPI-ESM-LR decadal prediction system, surpassing their predictive skill for leadyears 1 and 2. With diffusion models still new to climate predictions, we expect this result to stand only at the beginning of further machine learning integration into climate predictions in general and decadal predictions in particular.

How to cite: Lentz, S., Baehr, J., Kadow, C., Meuer, J., Oertel, F., and Fallah, B.: Decadal Predictions with Diffusion Models: Combining Machine Learning and Earth System Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13847, 2025.

EGU25-15772 | Orals | CL4.6

A perfect-model perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox in initialized decadal climate predictions 

Markus G. Donat, Rashed Mahmood, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, and Etienne Tourigny

Initialized climate predictions are skillful in predicting regional climate conditions in several parts of the globe, but also suffer from different issues arising from imperfect initializations and inconsistencies between the model and the real world climate and processes. In particular, a so-called signal-to-noise paradox has been identified in recent years. This ‘paradox’ implies that the models can predict observations with higher skill than they predict themselves, despite some physical inconsistencies between modeled and real world climate. This is often interpreted as an indicator of model deficiencies.

Here we present a perfect-model decadal prediction experiment, where the predictions have been initialized using climate states from the model's own transient simulation. This experiment therefore avoids issues related to model inconsistencies, initialization shock and the climate drift that affect real-world initialized climate predictions. We find that the perfect-model decadal predictions are highly skillful in predicting the near-surface air temperature and sea level pressure of the reference run on decadal timescales. Interestingly, we also find signal-to-noise issues, meaning that the perfect-model reference run is predicted with higher skill than any of the initialized prediction members with the same model. This suggests that the signal-to-noise paradox may not be due just to model deficiencies in representing the observed climate in initialized predictions, but other issues that affect the statistical properties of the predictions. We illustrate that this signal-to-noise problem is related to analysis practices that concatenate time series from different discontinuous initialized simulations, which introduces inconsistencies compared to the continuous transient climate realizations and the observations. In particular, the concatenation of predictions initialized independently into a single time series breaks the auto-correlation of the time series.

How to cite: Donat, M. G., Mahmood, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Tourigny, E.: A perfect-model perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox in initialized decadal climate predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15772, 2025.

EGU25-18643 | Orals | CL4.6

Extending the Lead Time for European Winterstorm Activity Predictions 

Gregor C. Leckebusch, Kelvin S. Ng, Ryan Sriver, Lisa Degenhardt, Eleanor Barrie, and Elisa Spreitzer

The most dangerous and costly meteorological hazards in Europe are extreme extra-tropical cyclones and associated windstorms (EUWS) in winter. Recent studies have shown that seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the seasonal frequency of EUWS with a one-month lead time using November initialisations. Given that many seasonal prediction systems produce seasonal forecasts at the start of each month, this raises the question whether pre-November initialised seasonal forecasts could provide usable information in predicting seasonal activity of EUWS.

In this study, we will present preliminary results of an approach aimed at extending the predictive horizon of seasonal EUWS activity. While the direct outputs of the pre-November initialised seasonal predictions of EUWS do not have the sufficient skill, skilful predictions of seasonal EUWS activity can be obtained by an approach that utilises the information of the upper ocean mean potential temperature from seasonal prediction systems. Based on our approach, skilful predictions of seasonal EUWS activity becomes possible as early as October.

How to cite: Leckebusch, G. C., Ng, K. S., Sriver, R., Degenhardt, L., Barrie, E., and Spreitzer, E.: Extending the Lead Time for European Winterstorm Activity Predictions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18643, 2025.

Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. Here, we examine sources of early winter seasonal predictability in across state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. As in previous studies, these systems demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, associated with the East Atlantic pattern. The predictability is strongly tied to the ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic, though the systems' response to ENSO is systematically too weak. The hindcasts of the East Atlantic index exhibit a substantial signal-to-noise errors, with the systems' predicted signal generally being smaller than would be expected for the observed level of skill, though there is substantial spread across systems. The signal-to-noise errors are found to be strongly linked to the strength of the ENSO teleconnection in the systems, those with a weaker teleconnection exhibit a larger signal-to-noise problem. The dependency on modelled ENSO teleconnection strength closely follows a simple scaling relationship derived from a toy model. Further analysis reveals that the strength of the ENSO teleconnection in the systems is linked to climatological biases in the behaviour of the North Atlantic jet. 

How to cite: O'Reilly, C.: Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions linked to weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18821, 2025.

EGU25-21570 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.6

Predicting climate indicators at the decadal scale using a hybrid prediction system: application to SUEZ water management plans over France 

Joanne Couallier, Ramdane Alkama, Charlotte Sakarovitch, and Didier Swingedouw

As climate change reshapes hydrological cycles, workers in water management face unprecedented challenges in ensuring resource availability, mitigating flood risks, and maintaining resilient infrastructure. Nowadays, water utilities and authorities rely on long-term climate projections to plan for challenges extending through the end of the century. However, critical gaps persist in actionable information for shorter timescales, such as the decadal scale, which better aligns with political and operational decision-making. In this context, decadal climate predictions can be pivotal to address the needs of the water management sector and develop efficient climate services. However, their added values as compared to projections remained limited up to now.
To better understand user requirements, we collaborate with various teams from SUEZ, a company specializing in water management. Through interviews, we have identified the demand for specific indicators based on climate variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and corresponding spatio-temporal scales. Building on this understanding, we also develop in IPSL-EPOC decadal prediction team a new hybrid approach to improve our forecasts. This approach includes identifying a climate index (e.g., NAO, WEPA) derived from Sea Level Pressure (SLP) that correlates with the climate variable of interest. Using all the available decadal climate predictions from the DCPP project, we evaluate the predictability of this index, which is usually high for NAO and WEPA. This index is then employed to subsample a few of member CMIP6 climate projections that are in phase with the prediction of the DCPP ensemble. This latter step allows to inflate the amplitude of the predictable signal, resolving the limitation coming from the signal-to-noise paradox. It is also allowing to perform a proper statistical downscaling, used to refine these forecasts, ensuring their usability for identified needs. The resulting forecasts are designed to integrate seamlessly into SUEZ’s water sector models.
Preliminary work has identified diverse parameters of interest for water management, such as daily precipitation (resource availability forecasting), extreme precipitation events at fine temporal resolution (Combined Sewer Overflows modeling), and the number of very cold or very hot days (linked to risks of water mains and service lines failures, respectively). Early findings also suggest that, for the average precipitation over France, the WEPA index exhibits the largest correlations, unlike the NAO, which has greater influence for other European regions. The production of forecasts is currently underway, and their performance regarding the initially identified parameters will be presented.

How to cite: Couallier, J., Alkama, R., Sakarovitch, C., and Swingedouw, D.: Predicting climate indicators at the decadal scale using a hybrid prediction system: application to SUEZ water management plans over France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21570, 2025.

EGU25-872 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.8

A new orographic drag parameterization package for the GLOBO model: implementation and evaluation  

Guido Davoli, Daniele Mastrangelo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Andrea Alessandri

Orography plays a fundamental role in shaping the atmospheric circulation and affects key atmospheric processes. Therefore, weather and climate models must adequately represent its effects to obtain accurate predictions. Since all orographic scales are found to influence the atmospheric flow, the parameterization of unresolved orographic drag has been recognized as crucial to simulate a realistic mid-latitude circulation. Moreover, in the last few years, it has become clear that orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) and turbulent orographic form drag (TOFD) parameterization schemes play a crucial role in reducing some of the long-standing circulation biases affecting climate models. However, they are still considered a potential source of errors, due to the uncertainties which affect some poorly constrained physical parameters. Furthermore, these schemes need boundary conditions suitable to characterize the physical features of sub-grid orography. The strategies for the generation of such boundary conditions can vary a lot between different modelling centres, and it has been shown to be an important source of uncertainty. 

GLOBO is a global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute for Atmospheric Science and Climate of the Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR). It is currently in use within many operational frameworks, including a global monthly probabilistic forecast system that contributes to the Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) project database. In an effort to improve and modernize the model, we implemented a novel orographic drag parameterization package, based on state-of-the-art OGWD and TOFD schemes. Simultaneously with the development of the orographic drag parameterizations, we developed a novel software package, OROGLOBO (OROGraphic ancillary files generator for GLOBal atmospheric mOdels) designed for the generation of the orographic boundary conditions. This unique open-source tool is designed to exploit a state-of-the-art, high resolution global Digital Elevation Model to generate boundary conditions for OGWD and TOFD schemes, gathering the main algorithms and techniques available in the literature in a single software. 

Here, we present the results of this model update. A new set of retrospective forecasts was performed, consisting of an 8-members ensemble, initialized every 5 days and integrated for 35 days, during the period 2001-2020, including the developments in orographic physical parameterization and boundary conditions. This set of simulations is compared to the corresponding hindcasts set performed with the standard model configuration and used to calibrate the operational ensemble of global sub-seasonal probabilistic forecasts. We evaluate the impact of the improved representation of unresolved orographic drag on the simulation and prediction of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes circulation. We assess the change in prediction skill for atmospheric blocking events and associated extreme temperature and wind conditions. 

How to cite: Davoli, G., Mastrangelo, D., Cherchi, A., and Alessandri, A.: A new orographic drag parameterization package for the GLOBO model: implementation and evaluation , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-872, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-872, 2025.

EGU25-1040 | ECS | Orals | CL4.8

Understanding Soil Modulation of Drought Persistence in CMIP6 Models 

Marco Possega, Emanuele Di Carlo, Vincenzo Senigalliesi, and Andrea Alessandri

 Drought persistence is a critical factor in assessing water availability and its impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. In this respect, poorly constrained soil properties in climate models such as field capacity – i.e. the maximum water a soil can retain after drainage of excess moisture – may strongly affect severity and persistence of simulated soil drought conditions. This study examines for the first time the regulating role of soil properties, particularly of field capacity, in shaping drought memory and its broader impacts. Using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and observations, we analyze drought dynamics across various phases of the hydrological cycle applying non-parametric standardized indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (precipitation deficits), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (precipitation-evapotranspiration balance), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (soil moisture deficits), and Standardized Runoff Index (reduced runoff). Our analysis investigates the persistence between hydrological drought indicators, showing that soils with greater field capacity sustain drought conditions longer, emphasizing the importance of accurately modeling soil properties to capture drought persistence effectively. The historical CMIP6 simulations are compared with observational datasets, including GLEAM and CRU, to assess the deviation between model outputs and observed climate conditions. The future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) are also examined, revealing significant regional differences in projected drought behavior depending on the degree of radiative-forcing increase during 21st century. High-emission scenarios project prolonged drought conditions due to increased temperatures and evapotranspiration feedback, while low-emission pathways are effective in preserving more stable hydrological dynamics. Our results show that, in water limited and transition areas such as the Euro-Mediterranean region, the persistence of droughts and its projected change considerably depend on the modeled field capacity. This study highlights the essential role of field capacity and other soil characteristics in regulating the variability and the persistence of drought events. By bridging historical validation with future projections, it provides a comprehensive understanding of drought dynamics and trends, also identifying observational constraints for the Earth System Models. These findings are crucial for refining predictions of agricultural and hydrological drought impacts and for guiding adaptation strategies in water-limited regions that are vulnerable to drought exacerbation under climate change.

How to cite: Possega, M., Di Carlo, E., Senigalliesi, V., and Alessandri, A.: Understanding Soil Modulation of Drought Persistence in CMIP6 Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1040, 2025.

EGU25-1545 | Posters on site | CL4.8

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Summer Sea Ice Forecasts Using Dynamical Downscaling with the Regional Arctic System Model 

Younjoo Lee, Wieslaw Maslowski, Anthony Craig, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, and Robert Osinski

The Arctic region has been warming at a rate significantly faster than the global average, leading to an accelerated decline in sea ice. This trend is expected to continue, potentially resulting in a "low-ice regime," which could make sea ice conditions more unpredictable. Anticipating changes in Arctic sea ice and climate states is therefore crucial for guiding various human activities, from natural resource management to risk assessment decisions. While global climate and Earth system models project continuous sea ice decline over decadal time scales, achieving reliable seasonal forecasts remains challenging. To address this, we apply dynamical downscaling with the state-of-the-art Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), which enables us to forecast Arctic sea ice on time scales ranging from weeks to six months. RASM is a fully coupled regional climate model that integrates components for the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, interconnected through the flux coupler of the Community Earth System Model. In our study, we simulate RASM at a horizontal resolution of 1/12 degree (approximately 9 km) for both the ocean and sea ice, with 45 vertical levels in the ocean and five thickness categories for sea ice. The atmosphere is configured on a 50-km grid with 40 vertical levels, dynamically downscaled from the NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecasting System version 2 (CFSv2) at 72-hour intervals for the upper half of the atmosphere. Monthly ensemble forecasts extending up to six months are generated using initial conditions derived from a fully-coupled RASM hindcast simulation without bias correction and assimilation. This presentation highlights results for September sea ice predictions initialized on April 1, May 1, June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1, covering pan-Arctic and regional sea ice spatio-temporal conditions from 2012 to 2021. Specifically, we examine how lead time and initial conditions affect the quantitative skill of seasonal predictability for Arctic sea ice and demonstrate skillful predictions of September sea ice up to six months in advance. Overall, our study underscores that enhancing model physics and obtaining more realistic initial conditions are crucial for achieving skillful sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions.

How to cite: Lee, Y., Maslowski, W., Craig, A., Clement Kinney, J., and Osinski, R.: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Arctic Summer Sea Ice Forecasts Using Dynamical Downscaling with the Regional Arctic System Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1545, 2025.

EGU25-1847 | Orals | CL4.8

AI deep learning for climate forecasts 

Jing-Jia Luo

AI deep learning for climate science has attracted increasing attentions in recent years with rapidly expanded applications to many areas. In this talk, I will briefly present our recent progresses on using various deep learning methods for seasonal-to-multi-seasonal predictions of ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), summer precipitation in China and East Africa, Arctic sea ice cover, ocean waves, as well as the bias correction and downscaling of dynamical model’s forecasts. The results suggest that many popular deep learning methods, such as convolutional neural networks, residual neural network, long-short term memory, ConvLSTM, multi-task learning, cycle-consistent generative adversarial networks and vision transformer, can be well applied to improve our understanding and predictions of climate. In addition, a brief introduction of AI large models for ensemble weather-subseasonal-seasonal-decadal forecasts, together with the perspective on the future development of AI methods, will also be presented.

How to cite: Luo, J.-J.: AI deep learning for climate forecasts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1847, 2025.

EGU25-2210 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.8

The role of Pacific Tropical Instability Wave in Sub-Seasonal SST predictability  

Li Tianyan, Yu Yongqiang, and Zhen Weipeng

Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) play a crucial role in modulating Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, yet their representation in current forecast systems remains challenging. This study investigates the relationship between TIWs and sub-seasonal SST predictability while evaluating the performance limitations of the Licoms Forecast System. Through comprehensive analysis of observational data and model outputs, we demonstrate that TIWs provide significant potential for enhancing sub-seasonal SST forecast skill through their regular wave patterns and predictable evolution characteristics. However, our findings reveal that the current Licoms forecast systems systematically underestimate both TIW intensity and wavelength. Critical examination of error sources indicates that these deficiencies primarily originate from initialization fields rather than model physics or dynamics. 

How to cite: Tianyan, L., Yongqiang, Y., and Weipeng, Z.: The role of Pacific Tropical Instability Wave in Sub-Seasonal SST predictability , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2210, 2025.

EGU25-3974 | Orals | CL4.8

Increased multi-year ENSO predictability under greenhouse gas warming accounted by large ensemble simulations and deep learning 

Young-Min Yang, Jae-Heung Park, June-Yi Lee, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Jong-Seoung Kug, and Yoo-Geun Ham

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary internal climatic driver shaping extreme events worldwide1,2,3. Its intensity and frequency in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) warming has puzzled scientists for years, despite consensus among models about changes in average conditions4-16. Recent research has shed light on changes not only in ENSO variability5,7,8,10,13, but also in the occurrence of extreme5,6,11,12,13,14 and multi-year El Niño4,15, and La Niña9,11,16 events under GHG warming. Here, we investigate potential changes in ENSO predictability associated with changes in ENSO dynamics in the future by using long-range deep-learning forecasts trained on extensive large ensemble simulations of Earth System Models under historical forcings and the future high GHG emissions scenario. Our results show a remarkable increase in the predictability of ENSO events, ranging from 35% to 65% under the high GHG emissions scenario due to reduced ENSO irregularity, supported by a broad consensus among multi-models. Under GHG warming, an El Nino-like warming flattens the thermocline depth with upper ocean stratification. This flattening of the thermocline depth leads to an increased transition frequency between El Niño and La Niña events, driven by strengthened recharge-discharge oscillation with enhanced thermocline feedback and SST responses to zonal wind stress. As a result, ENSO complexity would reduce with increased regularity and reduced skewness, increasing ENSO predictability. These results imply that the future social and economic impacts of ENSO events may be more manageable, despite an expected increase in the frequency of extreme ENSO events.

How to cite: Yang, Y.-M., Park, J.-H., Lee, J.-Y., An, S.-I., Yeh, S.-W., Kug, J.-S., and Ham, Y.-G.: Increased multi-year ENSO predictability under greenhouse gas warming accounted by large ensemble simulations and deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3974, 2025.

EGU25-5233 | Orals | CL4.8

Standardisation of equitable climate services by supporting a community of practice 

Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Asun Lera St Clair, Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Paula Checchia, Joerg Cortekar, Judith E.M. Klostermann, Werner Krauß, Angel Muñoz, Jaroslav Mysiak, Jorge Paz, Marta Terrado, Andreas Villwock, Mirjana Volarev, and Saioa Zorita

Climate services are essential to support climate-sensitive decision making, enabling adaptation to climate change and variability, and mitigate the sources of anthropogenic climate change, while considering the values and contexts of those involved. The unregulated nature of climate services can lead to low market performance and lack of quality assurance. Best practices, guidance, and standards serve as a form of governance, ensuring quality, legitimacy, and relevance of climate services. The Climateurope2 project (www.climateurope2.eu) addresses this gap by engaging and supporting an equitable and diverse community of climate services to provide recommendations for their standardisation. Four components of climate services are identified (the decision context, the ecosystem of actors and co-production processes, the multiple knowledge systems involved, and the delivery and evaluation of these services) to facilitate analysis. This has resulted in the identification of nine key messages summarising the susceptibility for the climate services standardisation. The recommendations are shared with relevant standardisation bodies and actors as well as with climate services stakeholders and providers.

How to cite: Doblas-Reyes, F., Lera St Clair, A., Baldissera Pacchetti, M., Checchia, P., Cortekar, J., Klostermann, J. E. M., Krauß, W., Muñoz, A., Mysiak, J., Paz, J., Terrado, M., Villwock, A., Volarev, M., and Zorita, S.: Standardisation of equitable climate services by supporting a community of practice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5233, 2025.

EGU25-7271 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.8

Impact-Based Forecasting Model for Flood Hazard Mitigation in Java, Indonesia 

Dendi Rona Purnama, Simon F. B. Tett, Ruth Doherty, and Ida Pramuwardani

Flooding is the most frequent and damaging hydrometeorological disaster in Indonesia, with Java being especially vulnerable due to its dense population and rapid urbanization. This study aims to refine the Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) model to improve flood hazard predictions and mitigation efforts. Using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM-IMERG) rainfall data as the hazard component combined with vulnerability and capacity datasets from InaRISK, this research focuses on enhancing the precision and reliability of impact assessments.

Initial analyses highlight the potential of impact-based rainfall thresholds and assessment probabilistic impacts to refine the IBF model and reduce subjectivity in impact assessments. By linking calculated impact values and disaster magnitudes for the 2014 – 2023 period, this study shows a promising skill for significant and severe flood events, although improvements are needed for minor and minimal disaster classifications.

This research lays the groundwork for a more robust and scalable IBF model tailored to Java’s unique challenges. The findings aim to support BMKG’s operational needs, enabling the delivery of more actionable early warnings and targeted disaster preparedness measures. By addressing critical gaps in existing IBF systems, this study contributes to bridging the divide between hazard-impact forecasts and societal resilience, ultimately mitigating the impacts of floods in Indonesia.

How to cite: Purnama, D. R., Tett, S. F. B., Doherty, R., and Pramuwardani, I.: Impact-Based Forecasting Model for Flood Hazard Mitigation in Java, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7271, 2025.

EGU25-9933 | Orals | CL4.8

Hydroclimate services are more than just providing data 

Jean-Philippe Vidal, Eric Sauquet, Louis Héraut, Sonia Siauve, Guillaume Evin, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Flore Tocquer, Audrey Bornançin-Plantier, Claire Magand, and Maud Berel

The concept of hydroclimate services is predominantly recognised as web portals dedicated to the dissemination of data to potential users. However, the scope of climate services extends beyond the sole provision of data. This communication presents a comprehensive ecosystem of tools and resources associated with the development of an updated national hydrological projection dataset in France. The ecosystem was brought to life through a close collaboration between scientists and water managers in two joint projects: Explore2 and LIFE Eau&Climat. Tools and resources were thus developped with and for water resource managers, and designed to enhance the comprehension of both the conceptual framework and the data itself, facilitating utilisation in accordance with best practices for climate change adaptation.

The project websites serve as gateways to the ecosystem and the tools: the Explore2 website contains interviews with the scientific contributors, and the LIFE Eau&Climat website is hosted by the national website dedicated to water managers. A summary of the joint final public event accompanies the replay of the one-day conference and debates on a dedicated website. A compendium of antecedent research projects on climate change impacts on hydrology has been collated to summarise the state of the art prior to the two projects. A MOOC has been developed in conjunction with scientists to facilitate the comprehension of the Explore2 project, its design, and its application in adaptation studies.

Moreover, the Explore2 dataverse (https://entrepot.recherche.data.gouv.fr/dataverse/explore2) brings together a variety of products in an organised and searchable way, including thematic scientific reports, GIS layers, and other key metadata. It also contains three types of station datasheets aimed at locally contextualising outputs: hydrological model performance datasheets, projection results datasheets, and uncertainty quantification datasheets. The MEANDRE interactive data visualisation tool (https://meandre.explore2.inrae.fr/) offers a guided tour of the salient take-home messages and a comprehensive exploration of the Explore2 hydrological projection dataset. This multi-model dataset (GCMs/RCMs/bias correction methods/hydrological models) is made available through the DRIAS-Eau portal (https://drias-eau.fr/), which functions as a water mirror of the established DRIAS-Climat portal. The utilisation of this dataset for local climate change impact studies is facilitated by a methodological guide written as an adventure gamebook (https://livreec.inrae.fr/) and based on real-life studies carried out by water managers during the LIFE Eau&Climat project. Furthermore, experiments of sonification of hydrological projections offer a novel approach to apprehending future changes (https://explore2enmusique.github.io/).

This ecosystem has been met with great anticipation and acclaim by local to national-scale water managers, paving the way for ongoing local prospective studies. These will be able to confront future resources with the ecological needs of aquatic environments and human water usage.

This work is funded by the EU LIFE Eau&Climat project (LIFE19 GIC/FR/001259).

How to cite: Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., Héraut, L., Siauve, S., Evin, G., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Tocquer, F., Bornançin-Plantier, A., Magand, C., and Berel, M.: Hydroclimate services are more than just providing data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9933, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9933, 2025.

EGU25-11600 | ECS | Orals | CL4.8

Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal Prediction of droughts: the case of the Middle East 

Thomas Dal Monte, Andrea Alessandri, Annalisa Cherchi, Markus Donat, and Marco Gaetani

Drought warnings are vital to sectors like agriculture and water management, especially at the seasonal time scale. Identifying the sources of drought predictability in regions where a prediction system demonstrated potential for useful applications of the forecasts, represents an important step toward building confidence in the predictions and refining the seasonal predictions. To better identify higher forecast skill in this context, one possible approach is to focus on specific “windows of opportunity”. The approach aims to identify periods when persistent anomalies occurring in the ocean, the atmosphere or the land surface may positively precondition the predictive ability of the seasonal forecast. In the case of SPI3, a high potential for preconditioned predictive skill is identified in the Middle East region, as suggested by a robust relationship with large-scale climate modes. Building on these results, this study explores the contributions of individual years to the skill for the region during the autumn season and in the hindcast period 1993-2016. We used a Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of eight seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) and observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) to calculate the SPI3 time series and the values of the Pacific and Indian teleconnection indices, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), respectively. A novel methodology is implemented to cluster the year-by-year MME contributions to the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) that are preconditioned by the large-scale teleconnections. 

Results indicate that years with extreme high or low values of ONI and DMI are the main contributors to the forecasting skill of the MME drought predictions over the Middle East. In particular, a window of opportunity is identified in four (out of 24) years that show significantly high contribution to overall skill. These years are robustly preconditioned by El Niño or La Niña events. Among the years with higher contributions, 1994 stands out as being more influenced by the DMI, thus driven primarily by SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean rather than the Pacific Ocean.  The methodological approach developed in this study successfully highlighted the potential windows of opportunity for seasonal prediction in the Middle East region, and could be applied extensively to develop early warnings for the coming seasons to serve agriculture and water management operations.

How to cite: Dal Monte, T., Alessandri, A., Cherchi, A., Donat, M., and Gaetani, M.: Windows of Opportunity for Seasonal Prediction of droughts: the case of the Middle East, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11600, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11600, 2025.

EGU25-11821 | Orals | CL4.8

Seamless seasonal to multi-annual climate predictions by constraining transient (CMIP6) climate model simulations 

Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi

Seamless climate predictions combine information across different timescales to deliver information potentially useful for sectors like agriculture, energy, and public health. Seamless operational forecasts for periods spanning from sub-annual to multi-annual timescales are currently not available throughout the year. We show that this gap can be closed by using a well-established climate model analog method. The method consists in sampling model states from the CMIP6 transient simulation catalog based on their similarity with the observed sea surface temperature as a means of model initialization. 

Here we present the methodology and basic skill evaluation of the analog-based temperature and standardized precipitation index retrospective predictions with forecast times ranging from 3 months up to 4 years. We additionally compare these predictions with the non-initialized CMIP6 ensemble and with two operational benchmarks produced with state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts systems: one on seasonal timescales and the other on annual to multi-annual timescales.

The analog method provides skillful climate predictions across the different timescales, from seasons to several years, offering temperature and precipitation forecasts comparable to those from state-of-the-art initialized climate prediction systems, particularly at the annual to multi-annual timescales. However, unlike operational decadal prediction systems that provide only one or two initializations per year, the analog-based system can generate seamless predictions with monthly initializations, offering year-round climate information. Additionally, analog predictions are computationally inexpensive once the multi-model transient climate simulations have been completed. We argue that these predictions are a valuable complement to existing operational prediction systems and may improve regional climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. 

 

How to cite: Acosta Navarro, J. C., Aranyossy, A., De Luca, P., Donat, M. G., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Mahmood, R., Toreti, A., and Volpi, D.: Seamless seasonal to multi-annual climate predictions by constraining transient (CMIP6) climate model simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11821, 2025.

EGU25-13385 | Posters on site | CL4.8

Representation of Temporal Variations of Vegetation in Reanalysis and Climate Predictions: Diverging Soil-Moisture Response in Land Surface Models 

Andrea Alessandri, Marco Possega, Emanuele Di Carlo, Annalisa Cherchi, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Constantin Ardilouze, Gildas Dayon, and Fransje van Oorschot

Vegetation plays a crucial role in the land surface water and energy balance modulating the interactions and feedback with climate at the regional to global scale. The availability of unprecedented Earth observation products covering recent decades (and extended up to real-time) are therefore of paramount importance to better represent the vegetation and its time evolution in the land surface models (LSMs) used for offline analysis/initialization and for the seasonal-to-decadal predictions. 

Here, we integrate realistic vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI) variability from latest generation satellite campaigns, available through Copernicus Land Monitoring Service (CLMS), in three different LSMs that conducted the same coordinated set of offline land-only simulations forced by hourly atmospheric fields derived from the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis. The experiment implementing realistic interannually-varying LAI (SENS) is compared with simulations utilizing a climatological LAI (CTRL) to quantify the vegetation feedback and the effects on the simulation of near-surface soil moisture.

The results show that the inter-annually varying LAI considerably affects the simulation of near-surface soil moisture anomalies in all three models and over the same water-limited regions, but surprisingly the effects diverge among models: compared with ESA-CCI observations, the near-surface soil moisture anomalies significantly improve in  one of the three LSMs (HTESSEL-LPJGuess) while the other two (ECLand and ISBA-CTRIP) display opposite effects with significant worsening of the anomaly correlation coefficients. It is found that the enhanced simulation of near-surface soil moisture is enabled by the positive feedback that is activated by the effective vegetation cover (EVC) parameterization, implemented only in HTESSEL-LPJGuess. The EVC parameterization works such that the effective fraction of the bare soil being covered by vegetation does vary with LAI following an exponential function constrained by available satellite observations. The increased (reduced) soil-moisture limitation during dry (wet) periods produces negative (positive) LAI and therefore EVC anomalies, which in turn generate a dominating positive feedback on the near-surface soil moisture of HTESSEL-LPJGuess by exposing more (less) bare soil to direct evaporation from the sub-surface layer. On the other hand, in the EC-Land and ISBA-CTRIP models, EVC is fixed in time as it cannot vary with LAI and so the positive feedback described cannot be activated. The only feedback on near-surface soil moisture anomalies that operates  in these two models is negative and comes from the reduced (increased) transpiration related to the negative (positive) LAI anomalies.

Simply prescribing observed vegetation data into LSMs does not guarantee the introduction of the correct coupling and feedback on climate. In this respect, this multi-model comparison experiment demonstrates the fundamental role of the inclusion of the underlying vegetation processes in LSMs. Ignoring the proper representation of the vegetation processes could lead to unrealistic (and even the opposite effects compared with observations) behaviour in reanalysis and climate predictions.

How to cite: Alessandri, A., Possega, M., Di Carlo, E., Cherchi, A., Boussetta, S., Balsamo, G., Ardilouze, C., Dayon, G., and van Oorschot, F.: Representation of Temporal Variations of Vegetation in Reanalysis and Climate Predictions: Diverging Soil-Moisture Response in Land Surface Models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13385, 2025.

EGU25-14900 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.8

Psychological Drivers of Climate Silence: A Challenge to Indonesia's Climate Action 

Anggi Dewita and Balgis Inayah

Despite growing awareness of climate change, many Indonesians remain climate-silent, posing a significant challenge to the country's efforts to mitigate its impacts. This study aims to analyze the factors contributing to climate silence in Indonesia, using psychological theories related to climate science denial. A rapid systematic review was conducted to gather evidence, revealing five key drivers of climate denial: limited cognitive abilities, ideological beliefs, sunk costs, perceived risks, and discredence. These barriers are further shaped by factors such as government policies, economic conditions, religious influences, and insufficient environmental education.
This skepticism towards climate change undermines adaptation and mitigation efforts by disrupting community engagement and participation. The findings highlight the importance of government support in addressing the root causes of climate skepticism. Employing the concept of inoculation through a misconception-based learning approach—integrated into religion and education—can help reshape mindsets. Enhancing public understanding of climate change is essential to fostering community involvement and support for effective climate mitigation initiatives.

Keywords: climate silence, climate denial, psychological drivers, Indonesia.

How to cite: Dewita, A. and Inayah, B.: Psychological Drivers of Climate Silence: A Challenge to Indonesia's Climate Action, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14900, 2025.

EGU25-15251 | Posters on site | CL4.8

Assessment of the skill of seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasts with ParFlow/CLM over central Europe 

Alexandre Belleflamme, Suad Hammoudeh, Klaus Goergen, and Stefan Kollet

In recent years, alternating drought and extreme precipitation events have highlighted the need for subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of the terrestrial water cycle. In particular, predictions of the impacts of dry and wet extremes on subsurface water resources are crucial to provide stakeholders in agriculture, forestry, the water sector, and other fields with information supporting the sustainable use of these resources.

In this context, we release an experimental Water Resources Bulletin (https://adapter-projekt.de/bulletin/index.html) four times per year, offering probabilistic forecasts of the total subsurface water storage (TSS) anomaly at a 0.6 km resolution, from the surface down to 60 m depth, for the upcoming seven months across Germany. These seasonal forecasts are generated using the integrated, physics-based hydrological model ParFlow/CLM, forced by 50 ensemble members of the SEAS5 seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

To evaluate our forecasts, we evaluated six 7-months probabilistic forecasts covering the vegetation period (March to September) for the years 2018 to 2023 with a reference long-term historical time series based on the same ParFlow/CLM setup. The forecast skill was assessed by comparing these seasonal forecasts to a climatology-based 10-member pseudo-forecast over the 2013–2023 period (using the leave-one-out method), extracted from the reference time series.

The monthly Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), which evaluates the ensemble distribution based on daily TSS data, indicates that the probabilistic forecast outperforms the climatology-based pseudo-forecast in most regions, except in 2018 and, to a lesser extent, in 2020 and 2022. This can be attributed to an under-representation of extremely dry members in the ensemble, combined with the memory effect of the initial conditions at increasing soil depths. For example, while March 2018 started with a slightly above-average TSS and experienced a strong meteorological drought leading to an agricultural drought, the initial TSS anomaly in March 2019 was already negative, with a less pronounced precipitation deficit during the vegetation period. This resulted in a much higher forecast skill, because of the memory effect accurately simulated with the physics-based model. Notably, the forecast skill only slightly decreases with increasing lead time, both for precipitation and TSS.

The analysis of the Relative Operating Characteristic Skill Score (ROCSS) for the lower quintile of the TSS distribution assesses whether negative TSS anomalies (i.e., droughts) are adequately represented within the probabilistic forecast ensemble. The results are consistent with those of the CRPSS, showing lower skill in 2018. Nevertheless, the ROCSS analysis overall indicates moderate to high skill for the probabilistic forecast, while the climatology-based pseudo-forecast demonstrates no skill. This confirms that the dry conditions experienced in central Europe in recent years were captured within the probabilistic forecast, underlining the added value of these forecasts and their usefulness in the experimental Water Resources Bulletin.

How to cite: Belleflamme, A., Hammoudeh, S., Goergen, K., and Kollet, S.: Assessment of the skill of seasonal probabilistic hydrological forecasts with ParFlow/CLM over central Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15251, 2025.

EGU25-15484 | ECS | Posters on site | CL4.8

From Policy to Action: Empowering Women to Lead Climate Resilience in Indonesia 

Asri Rachmawati and Anggi Dewita

Women face disproportionate impacts from climate change due to significant barriers to accessing education and protection. In Indonesia, women often lack access to essential resources and opportunities, particularly in urban informal settlements. However, women also hold a pivotal position in the community in advancing climate literacy. Despite progressive regulations supporting women’s rights, gaps in implementation persist, highlighting the need for targeted initiatives to enhance women’s understanding of climate issues and their capacity to lead resilience efforts. Indonesia has established strong policies for gender equality and climate action, such as Presidential Regulation No. 59/2017 and the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation (RAN-API), which emphasize gender-responsive strategies. However, translating these policies into real-world actions remains a challenge, highlighting the need to better connect scientific research and community insights to effective governance and implementation. This study identifies a critical gap in urban climate literacy and proposes empowering women as a solution. By leveraging women’s social network in Indonesia, the project disseminates climate knowledge and fosters collective action. Key initiatives include training women in climate literacy, introducing sustainable practices such as urban gardening, and developing accessible educational tools like songs, games, and visual materials. These programs are designed to position women as trusted leaders within their communities. Structured monitoring and evaluation methods, including annual surveys and peer-led literacy programs, ensure continuous improvement and scalability. Preliminary findings demonstrate that women-led climate literacy initiatives significantly enhance community resilience and resource allocation. Empowered women influence their families and peers, creating a ripple effect that strengthens societal adaptability. This scalable model integrates women-centered initiatives into governance frameworks, building pathways for sustainable, inclusive development. By empowering women, we transform vulnerability into strength, paving the way for a resilient future.

How to cite: Rachmawati, A. and Dewita, A.: From Policy to Action: Empowering Women to Lead Climate Resilience in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15484, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15484, 2025.

EGU25-15694 | Orals | CL4.8 | Highlight

The Use of Social Media on Weather and Climate Information Dissemination To Support Effective Climate Action 

Radjab Achmad Fachri and Achmad Ezra Reynara

Timely and fast dissemination are some of the key factors for the effective climate information services in order to support effective climate action. Various mean of communication channel has been used by an authoritative agency to disseminate their climate information, including social media. Currently, social media become one of the most effective chanel to disseminate of weather and climate information. Social media is not only a powerfull tools to ensure the timely, fast, massive dissemination of weather and climate information, but it is also easy to use and access by the general public. Social media also can be optimized public outreach and public education in order to raising awareness and mobilizing an effective climate action. Through it’s real time response tools, social media also can be used to strengthen the engagement between meteorological and hydrological services with their users. Our research will describe the effectiveness of social media to disseminate weather and climate information in order to support climate action in Indonesia.

How to cite: Achmad Fachri, R. and Ezra Reynara, A.: The Use of Social Media on Weather and Climate Information Dissemination To Support Effective Climate Action, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15694, 2025.

EGU25-19049 | Posters on site | CL4.8

The Role of Afforestation in Modulating Arid Climate 

Thang M. Luong, Matteo Zampieri, and Ibrahim Hoteit

Afforestation and greening initiatives are increasingly considered viable strategies for mitigating climate change, particularly in arid regions. In this study, we assess the climate impacts of large-scale afforestation in the Arabian Peninsula (AP). The afforestation is represented by replacing sandy bare soil with woody savanna vegetation, assumed to be naturally sustained by rainfall, in the absence of overgrazing. Using a 30-year regional climate model simulation, we prescribe afforestation within a circular area of 4.5° radius (approximately 71.9 million hectares) centered at 24.2°N, 44.3°E. The afforestation modifies surface characteristics, including darker albedo (0.25 vs. 0.38 for bare soil), a green fraction of 0.3, and a leaf area index (LAI) of 0.1.

Our results show that the afforestation slows down near-surface winds and due to darker surface, increases sensible heat flux, leading to enhanced warming of the atmosphere over vegetated areas. Despite these warming effects, the additional vegetation promotes higher rainfall due to increased moisture availability and reduction of subsidence. This study underscores the dual role of afforestation in modulating regional climate, serving as both a climate mitigation measure and a potential warming source, depending on regional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering water availability and local climate factors when designing greening policies for arid regions.

How to cite: Luong, T. M., Zampieri, M., and Hoteit, I.: The Role of Afforestation in Modulating Arid Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19049, 2025.

EGU25-19889 | Orals | CL4.8

Progresses and Challenges for Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction 

Ángel G. Muñoz, William J. Merryfield, and Debra Hudson

Subseasonal to decadal predictions provide essential information that bridges the gap in timescales between weather forecasts and long-term climate projections. The science and practice of making such predictions using global climate models initialized with observational data has advanced considerably in recent years, and as a result operational subseasonal, seasonal and decadal prediction services are now a reality. Nonetheless, important remaining challenges must be overcome if these predictions are to more fully realize their potential value for society. This talk highlights five key challenges recommended as targets for focused international research; these are set against a backdrop of wider challenges encompassing climate modelling and services across time scales.

How to cite: Muñoz, Á. G., Merryfield, W. J., and Hudson, D.: Progresses and Challenges for Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19889, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19889, 2025.

EGU25-21425 | Orals | CL4.8

A large ensemble of decadal predictions using MIROC6 

Takahito Kataoka, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hiroshi Koyama, and Masato: Mori

The climate fluctuates on various timescales and in various patterns, giving rise to extreme events over the globe. Skillful predictions of such climate variations would therefore benefit society, and there have been substantial efforts. For the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP), we performed decadal predictions with ten ensemble members using the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6). However, since models tend to underestimate signal-to-noise ratio in some sectors, such as the Atlantic, a large ensemble size appears to be required for skillful predictions of those variations. To better understand the predictability on timescales out to a season to a decade, we have prepared a set of initialized predictions using MIROC6 that consists of 10-year-long hindcasts starting every November between 1960-2021, with 50 ensemble members. Compared to the original 10-member ensemble hindcast, both seasonal and decadal prediction skills are broadly improved (e.g., SAT and SLP over southeast China and Scandinavia for the first winter, North and South Pacific SSTs for decadal prediction). Regarding the decadal prediction skill, the impact of initialization is seen up to lead year 7-10 for the North and eastern tropical Pacific Oceans.
Also, building on our experience with decadal climate predictions, we have been working on decadal carbon predictions in recent years. Our efforts on earth system predictions will be introduced as well.

How to cite: Kataoka, T., Tatebe, H., Koyama, H., and Mori, M.: A large ensemble of decadal predictions using MIROC6, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21425, 2025.

Ice slabs are multi-meter thick layers of refrozen meltwater that form in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) percolation zone and play a crucial role in modulating surface runoff. The limited permeability of ice slabs restricts the vertical percolation of meltwater into underlying firn, thus accelerating runoff. Improving understanding of ice slab growth and evolution is crucial to improving understanding of GrIS supraglacial hydrology, reducing uncertainty in projections of GrIS surface runoff rates, and improving global sea level rise estimates. Existing maps of ice slab extent have been developed using NASA’s Operation Ice Bridge Accumulation Radar data collected between 2011-2014 and 2017-2018 as well as Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radar data averaged over 2015-2019, however both of these datasets have some combination of limited spatial resolution, poor spatial coverage, or inconsistent temporal coverage, making it difficult to capture high resolution rates of inland expansion.

Here, we present the first annual time series of ice slab extent from 2015 through 2024, derived from polarimetric Sentinel-1 backscatter measurements. This work yields maps of the full spatial extent and continuity of ice slabs at 500 m2 resolution and establishes a comprehensive decade-long record of ice slab behavior in a warming climate. To assess atmospheric drivers of ice slab growth over this time, we compare our observations of inland expansion to hindcasts from two regional climate models: MAR and RACMO. We also compare our time series to the existing MacFerrin and Brils models of ice slab expansion to evaluate whether computationally expensive firn models are needed to predict ice slab expansion. Our work ensures continuous monitoring of ice slab expansion into the 2030s with the arrival of each new year of Sentinel-1 data and provides a basis for improving model predictions of surface mass balance in Greenland’s wet snow zone.

How to cite: Mutter, E. and Culberg, R.: Decade Long Time Series (2015 - 2024) of Ice Slab Expansion in Greenland using Sentinel-1 SAR , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1811, 2025.

EGU25-3771 | ECS | Orals | CR2.3

Subglacial drainage modelling and Bayesian calibration using Gaussian Process emulators 

Tim Hill, Gwenn Flowers, Derek Bingham, and Matthew Hoffman

Subglacial drainage models sensitively depend on the values of numerous uncertain parameters. However, the computation time associated with running these models makes it difficult to quantify the associated uncertainty in model outputs and to use field data to calibrate parameter values. To overcome these computational limitations, we construct a Gaussian Process (GP) emulator that accelerates subglacial drainage modelling by ~1000x. The GP predicts spatiotemporally resolved water pressure as a function of eight model parameters and is trained using ensembles of up to 512 simulations with the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model applied to the Kangerlussuaq sector of the western Greenland Ice Sheet. The GP reproduces the spatial patterns and daily temporal variations simulated by GlaDS within ~4%, with locally higher errors near moulins and during the early melt season. As an application of the GP, we compute the sensitivity of basal water pressure to each of the eight parameters and find that three parameters (ice-flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90% of the variance in model outputs. Next, we explore using a borehole water-pressure timeseries to calibrate the eight uncertain parameters. We take a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and use the GP in place of the physics-based model to make Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling computationally feasible. We find meaningful constraints relative to the prior assumptions on most parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

How to cite: Hill, T., Flowers, G., Bingham, D., and Hoffman, M.: Subglacial drainage modelling and Bayesian calibration using Gaussian Process emulators, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3771, 2025.

EGU25-4180 | ECS | Orals | CR2.3

Modelling the hydrology of sedimentary basins beneath marine ice sheets 

Gabriel Cairns, Ian Hewitt, and Graham Benham

The flow of Antarctic ice streams is modulated by a subglacial hydrological system, including “shallow” water transported through till and channels as well as “deep” groundwater stored in sedimentary basins. The latter has risen to prominence in recent years as a contributor to subglacial hydrology through the exchange of groundwater with the “shallow” system. These sedimentary basins possess complex geometries and display variations in salinity due to historic seawater intrusion. However, relatively little is known about the hydraulic properties of subglacial sedimentary basins, or their overall contribution to subglacial hydrology. To address these questions, we develop a mathematical model of groundwater flow in a sedimentary basin driven by an overlying marine ice sheet over geological timescales. By comparing modelled seawater intrusion to field observations of groundwater salinity, we  estimate the permeability of sedimentary basins in West Antarctica. We also show that exchange of groundwater between sedimentary basins and the shallow hydrological system is primarily driven by spatial variation in the basin geometry, and discuss implications for the dynamics of the ice stream. 

How to cite: Cairns, G., Hewitt, I., and Benham, G.: Modelling the hydrology of sedimentary basins beneath marine ice sheets, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4180, 2025.

EGU25-5167 | ECS | Orals | CR2.3

New insights into Hydrology and Lake Dynamics Upstream of Thwaites Glacier 

Felipe Napoleoni, Rebecca Schlegel, Alex M. Brisbourne, Julien Bodart, Helen Ockenden, Robert G. Bingham, and Team Ghost

Understanding Antarctic subglacial hydrology is crucial for assessing ice sheet dynamics and their contributions to global sea-level rise. Subglacial water modulates basal friction, influencing ice flow and glacier stability, as shown in studies of Thwaites Glacier and other West Antarctic systems. Here, we present new insights into subglacial hydrology derived from geophysical observations. By integrating radar-derived bed reflectivity with subglacial topography analysis, and the geometry of englacial layers we identify potential subglacial flow pathways.

Our study focuses on a 350 km² region located 124 km upstream of the Thwaites Glacier grounding line, where an active subglacial lake has been inferred from satellite altimetry, reflecting periodic ice surface uplift and depression. We investigate the ice-bed interface reflectivity to identify areas of potential water accumulation or saturated sediments beneath the glacier. Additionally, we analyse the geometry of englacial layers to further explore subglacial water distribution and drainage patterns. To account for the influence of basal topography, we remove the topographic signal to derive layers relative to a "flattened" base. Residual englacial layers above regions of high bed reflectivity were examined for drawdowns and uplifts linked to subglacial hydrological processes.

We also simulate the hydropotential in this region to delineate the most likely drainage pathways around the active subglacial lake's fringe. Our findings reveal high bed reflectivity areas coinciding with englacial layer drawdowns, along with regions of apparent uplift in the englacial stratigraphy. These results suggest a potential flow routing for Subglacial Lake Thw 124 and indicate that its previously defined boundary may be overestimated, implying episodic lake growth.

How to cite: Napoleoni, F., Schlegel, R., Brisbourne, A. M., Bodart, J., Ockenden, H., Bingham, R. G., and Ghost, T.: New insights into Hydrology and Lake Dynamics Upstream of Thwaites Glacier, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5167, 2025.

EGU25-6255 | Orals | CR2.3

Numerical modelling of subglacial water flow under a visco-elastic glacier-ice cover 

Thomas Zwinger, Tómas Jóhannesson, Peter Råback, and Juha Ruokolainen

We present a model for water flow at the base of a glacier implemented with the Elmer/Ice Open-Source Finite-Element Software. The model describes subglacial water flow in connection with the emptying of basal water bodies and the subglacial propagation of glacial outburst flood (jökulhlaup) fronts using a visco-elastic model for the overlying glacier combined with a turbulent thin-sheet model for water flow. The visco-elastic model is based on Maxwell-elements1 combining linear elasticity with the non-linear viscous behaviour described by Glen's ice-flow law, and, by introducing a pressure variable, allowing for incompressibility of the material. The dynamics of the subglacial ice–water interface is implemented as fluid–structure interaction (FSI), utilizing artificial compressibility. The coupled visco-elastic, thin-sheet model aims to represent the propagation of rapidly- and slowly-rising subglacial floods2, many of which are inferred from remote-sensing and in-situ observations to involve lifting of the glacier from its sole over large areas3. Dynamically similar subglacial ice–water interactions may be involved in widespread, propagating ice-velocity and surface-elevation disturbances that have been observed by remote sensing during subglacial drainage events in Greenland4 and Antarctica5, indicating that the dynamics of jökulhlaups may have wider implications for glacier dynamics in general. We will demonstrate the coupled model with simple synthetic examples. The visco-elastic model can simulate the observed geometry of ice-surface depressions formed by the collapse of basal water cupolas and conduits, for which we present simulation results with comparison to observed ice-surface depressions at Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland.

References

1Zwinger, T., Nield, G. A., Ruokolainen, J., and King, M. A.: A new open-source viscoelastic solid earth    deformation module implemented in Elmer (v8.4), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1155–1164 (2020).

2 Jóhannesson, T. Propagation of a subglacial flood wave during the initiation of a jökulhlaup. Hydrol. Sci. J., 47, 417–434 (2002).

3 Magnússon, E., & 13 others. New insights into the development of slowly rising jökulhlaups from the Grímsvötn subglacial lake, Iceland, deduced from ICEYE SAR images and in-situ observations. EGU General Assembly 2024, EGU24-18204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-18204.

4 Maier, N., Andersen, J.K., Mouginot, J., Gimbert, F., & Gagliardini, O. Wintertime supraglacial  lake drainage cascade triggers large-scale ice flow response in Greenland. Geophys. Res.  Lett., 50(4), p.e2022GL10 (2023).

5Neckel, N., Franke, S., Helm, V., Drews, R., & Jansen, D. Evidence of cascading subglacial  water flow at Jutulstraumen Glacier (Antarctica) derived from Sentinel-1 and ICESat-2  measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48(20), p.e2021GL094472 (2021).

How to cite: Zwinger, T., Jóhannesson, T., Råback, P., and Ruokolainen, J.: Numerical modelling of subglacial water flow under a visco-elastic glacier-ice cover, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6255, 2025.

EGU25-6766 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Simulating Greenland Ice Slabs and Firn Aquifers with a 1D Firn Model 

Nikola Jovanovic, Timm Schultz, and Angelika Humbert

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate, primarily due to meltwater runoff to the ocean. Firn, a porous transition layer between snow and ice, has the potential to buffer the GrIS’s contribution to sea level rise by retaining this meltwater. In regions with low surface accumulation, such as the K-transect in Southwest Greenland, high surface melt leads to the formation of thick, near-impermeable ice slabs which decrease the capacity of firn to retain meltwater. In contrast, in regions with high surface accumulation, such as the Helheim glacier in Southeast Greenland, high surface melt causes the formation of firn aquifers.

In this research, we simulate ice slabs and firn aquifers with a one-dimensional firn model, called Timm’s Firn Model (TFM), along glacier flowlines in different climate forcing scenarios. Instead of the commonly-used, more computationally efficient bucket scheme, the TFM solves the Richards’ equation, which simulates the vertical water transport more physically. We investigate whether the TFM simulates an earlier onset, greater extent, and expansion of ice slabs and firn aquifers towards the interior of the GrIS. In addition, we offer a new detection method for ice slabs based on hydraulic conductivity and volumetric liquid water content, enabled by the modeling of liquid water movement with the Richards’ equation.

The results show that firn aquifers were already forming in the Helheim glacier region before the GrIS started rapidly losing mass. Furthermore, the TFM results indicate that, with warming, firn aquifers form earlier along the flowline, expanding towards the interior of the ice sheet. Firn aquifer formation is highly dependent on surface accumulation, with higher accumulation rates favouring formation.

We further find that ice slabs, though less extensive than firn aquifers, were present along the K-transect in Southwest Greenland before the GrIS’ rapid mass loss. With warming, ice slabs form earlier along the flowline and expand towards the interior, consistent with available observations. Three consecutive years of extensive melt lead to ice slab formation. However, decade-old ice in the subsurface firn leads to ice slab formation as well, by merging with newly refrozen layers.

How to cite: Jovanovic, N., Schultz, T., and Humbert, A.: Simulating Greenland Ice Slabs and Firn Aquifers with a 1D Firn Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6766, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6766, 2025.

EGU25-6941 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Observations and models of englacial deformation during supraglacial lake drainage 

George Lu, Meredith Nettles, Laura Stevens, and Stacy Larochelle

The hydrofracture-driven drainage of supraglacial lakes rapidly introduces large volumes of meltwater to the ice-sheet bed, influencing ice-sheet dynamics on multiple timescales. Immediate ice deformation mainly arises from three sources: the opening of the hydrofracture crack, separation of the ice from the bed, and additional slip at the bed. An understanding of the ice response to drainage requires knowledge of these spatially and temporally varying sources, ideally constrained by observations obtained both on the ice surface and within the ice column. Previous work examining ice dynamics during supraglacial lake drainage relies on ice-surface observations only: aerial and satellite imagery, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, and pressure-sensor records from draining lakes. We deployed three autonomous phase-sensitive radio echo sounders (ApRES) near a set of three supraglacial lakes at ~950 m elevation, in the mid-ablation zone of the western Greenland Ice Sheet, to record englacial deformation during lake drainage. The ApRES stations were embedded within a geophysical network including GNSS stations, air-temperature sensors, and a lake pressure logger, and were configured to make repeat measurements every 15 minutes from May 2022 to September 2023. In 2022, two of the lakes adjacent to the ApRES stations drained abruptly via hydrofracture, exhibiting characteristics of inter-lake static-stress triggering; in 2023, all three lakes drained in a similar manner. We demonstrate the capability of the ApRES system to provide estimates of the time-varying change in englacial vertical strain rate that accompanies hydrofracture-driven lake drainage, despite the short durations of the drainages and the wet and variable ice surface that is inevitable during the melt season. At station locations ~1 km away from the hydrofracture cracks, we observe vertical strain rates of magnitude up to ~1 yr-1 during lake drainages, averaged over the top 500 m of ice and over 15 minutes; background vertical strain rates have magnitudes of ~10-3 yr-1 at these locations. As a first step towards incorporating these englacial observations of deformation as constraints on an inverse problem to obtain the spatial and temporal history of the deformation source, we compare the englacial observations to predictions from a source model constructed using only GNSS data. Following previous work, we use an elastic dislocation model and invert the GNSS data to obtain time- and space-varying estimates of the opening of the hydrofracture crack, opening at the ice-bed interface, and excess slip at the bed during lake drainage. We then use this model to predict changes in strain in the ice under the ApRES stations, and compare the resulting timeseries with our observations. We evaluate the additional sensitivity provided by our englacial observations to the deformation source.

How to cite: Lu, G., Nettles, M., Stevens, L., and Larochelle, S.: Observations and models of englacial deformation during supraglacial lake drainage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6941, 2025.

EGU25-8763 | ECS | Orals | CR2.3

Seasonal drainage of ponded crevasses in response to dynamics at Greenlandic outlet glaciers 

Thomas Chudley, Chris Stokes, Thomas Winterbottom, James Lea, and Caroline Clason

Greenland’s crevasses are responsible for transferring the majority of seasonal runoff to the bed of the ice sheet in fast-flowing regions, with implications for ice rheology, subglacial hydrology, and ice dynamic feedbacks. However, their drainage mechanics are poorly understood, particularly relative to other transfer mechanisms such as lake drainage and moulins. Here, we use remote-sensing products to identify relationships between strain rates and crevasse drainage at Greenland’s fast-flowing outlet glaciers. We map the time-series evolution of water-filled crevasses by training and applying a convolutional neural network (CNN) to 10 metre resolution Sentinel-2 MSI imagery, and extract contemporaneous logarithmic strain rates from NASA MEaSUREs ITS_LIVE velocity data. We test the time-evolving relationship between strain rates and crevasse ponding across a range of outlet glaciers, and examine whether significant relationships between the two processes can be detected. We find that crevasse drainage displays a unique response to seasonal strain rate evolution not detectable in analogous lake drainage studies, with drainage events occurring following a seasonal transition from compressive to tensile strain rate regimes. We aim to use these relationships to parameterise dynamic controls on crevasse drainage into coupled models of Greenland Ice Sheet hydrology-dynamics.

How to cite: Chudley, T., Stokes, C., Winterbottom, T., Lea, J., and Clason, C.: Seasonal drainage of ponded crevasses in response to dynamics at Greenlandic outlet glaciers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8763, 2025.

EGU25-9210 | ECS | Orals | CR2.3

Glacier outburst floods originating from glacial water pockets: what do we know? 

Christophe Ogier, Mauro Fischer, Mauro A. Werder, Matthias Huss, Mauro Hupfer, Mylène Jacquemart, Olivier Gagliardini, Adrien Gilbert, Leo Hösli, Emmanuel Thibert, Christian Vincent, and Daniel Farinotti

The term "water pocket" is often used as an umbrella term to describe the unknown origin of glacial outburst floods. There is currently no consensus on its definition and the formation and rupture mechanisms of water pockets remain poorly understood. Here, we define a glacial water pocket as an englacial or subglacial water-filled cavity with a volume larger than 1000 m3. Glacier outburst floods originating from the rupture of a water pocket are called water pocket outburst floods (WPOFs). WPOFs are in contrast to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), for which the water giving rise to a flood stems from a detectable reservoir located either in the glacier forefield, at the surface of the glacier, at the glacier margin, or at the glacier base.

Here, we aim to understand the mechanisms behind WPOFs from alpine glaciers by analyzing their spatial and temporal distribution, pre-event meteorological conditions, and the glacio-geomorphic features of the glaciers from which the floods originate. We updated an inventory of known WPOFs in the Swiss Alps to 91 events from 37 individual glaciers. Among all the recorded events, 64 events have direct observations of the flood at the glacier tongue, while 27 events are characterized as speculative because of the lack of direct observations. Infrastructure damage was reported for 43 events, and two WPOFs caused the death of three people. Most WPOFs occurred between June and September, linked to meltwater input. Meteorological data indicate anomalously high temperatures during the days preceding most events and heavy precipitation on 25 % of days for which WPOFs occur, indicating that water pockets typically rupture during periods of high water input.

Based on the collected information, we propose four mechanisms of water pocket formation: temporary subglacial channel blockage, hydraulic barriers, water-filled crevasses, and accumulation of liquid water behind barriers of cold ice (thermal barriers). Overall, our analysis highlights the challenge of understanding WPOFs due to the sub-surface nature of water pockets, emphasizing the need for field-based research to improve their detection and monitoring.

How to cite: Ogier, C., Fischer, M., Werder, M. A., Huss, M., Hupfer, M., Jacquemart, M., Gagliardini, O., Gilbert, A., Hösli, L., Thibert, E., Vincent, C., and Farinotti, D.: Glacier outburst floods originating from glacial water pockets: what do we know?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9210, 2025.

EGU25-9617 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Investigating Buried Meltwater Lakes on an Antarctic Ice Shelf with Sentinel-1 SAR Imagery and Machine Learning Methods 

Paula Suchantke, Rebecca Dell, Neil Arnold, and Devon Dunmire

Antarctic ice shelves, which encircle approximately 75% of the continent, play a pivotal role in moderating global mean sea level rise as their buttressing properties restrict the flow of inland ice. Each ice shelf is subject to distinct glaciological and climatic conditions that influence its susceptibility to partial break-up or total disintegration. One factor compromising the stability of ice shelves is the presence of both surface and sub-surface meltwater, which may accelerate firn-air depletion and induce flexural stresses, possibly leading to fractures within the ice shelf.

While the occurrence of surface meltwater has been studied extensively in recent years – documenting widespread meltwater systems across several ice shelves during the austral summer – our understanding of meltwater storage below the surface remains limited. In some regions, liquid water may persist within the ice-shelf surface throughout the year, insulated by overlying snow, firn, or ice layers. This subsurface meltwater, particularly in the form of buried lakes, represents a potential mechanism for hydrofracture – even outside the melt season. However, buried lakes are typically difficult to detect using optical imagery, complicating efforts to understand their dynamics and their impact on ice-shelf stability.

Here, we aim to evaluate the feasibility of applying machine learning methods, previously employed on the Greenland Ice Sheet, to detect meltwater lakes buried beneath the surface of Antarctic ice shelves. Using a convolutional neural network in a deep learning approach, we seek to classify ice-shelf surface and subsurface features in Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery (SAR), enabling the identification of buried lakes. Preliminary qualitative analysis of Sentinel-1 SAR data has revealed several possible buried meltwater lakes near the grounding line of the western Wilkins Ice Shelf near Merger Island. These lake findings provide an opportunity to assess the applicability of machine learning models developed for Greenlandic application in an Antarctic context. Additionally, it allows us to test the use of airborne radar data for validating buried lake identification in SAR imagery.  

How to cite: Suchantke, P., Dell, R., Arnold, N., and Dunmire, D.: Investigating Buried Meltwater Lakes on an Antarctic Ice Shelf with Sentinel-1 SAR Imagery and Machine Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9617, 2025.

Shortwave radiation can penetrate a few metres below the surface of an ice sheet, causing subsurface melting which results in the formation of a surface layer of porous ice, called the weathering crust. The weathering crust evolves in response to changing weather conditions, affecting the albedo, the surface and near-surface melting, and the transport of meltwater across the ice-sheet surface. Here, we extend our existing one-dimensional mathematical model for the vertical structure and temperature of the weathering crust to also account for lateral flow of meltwater through the porous crust. This is done using Darcy’s law and a parametrisation for lateral drainage. Our model successfully reproduces observed temperature, porosity and surface lowering on the south-western Greenland Ice Sheet over several years. This enables our model to be used as a tool for predicting future mass loss and weathering crust evolution in a changing climate. We also explore how two key parameters in our model – representing the partitioning of shortwave radiation between surface and subsurface absorption, and the strength of lateral meltwater drainage – affect the ice structure, temperature and mass loss. From this, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for the weathering crust, particularly subsurface radiation, for correctly reproducing observed surface mass loss.

How to cite: Woods, T. and Hewitt, I.: Modelling surface mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to radiation and lateral meltwater drainage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10272, 2025.

EGU25-10780 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

How do variations in ice-marginal lake water depth impact subglacial hydrology routing and ice dynamics?  

Adam Jake Hepburn and the SLIDE Team

Over 3,300 ice-marginal lakes exist around the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), interacting with ~10% of its perimeter boundary. The number of ice-marginal lakes has increased over the last three decades, likely in response to enhanced meltwater runoff and glacier recession. We describe an ice-dammed, ice-marginal lake drainage event observed north of Isunnguata Sermia Glacier, south west Greenland in which ~1.6 million m3 of water drained from the 100 m deep lake over 4 days during the 2015 melt season. Using the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model, fully-coupled to ice flow dynamics in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), we model this ice-marginal lake drainage as an instantaneous drop in water level at the boundary of our model domain. By modifying the subglacial hydrological inflow/outflow boundary conditions, and tracking the evolution of the system through time in terms of channelised discharge, sheet thickness, effective pressure, and ice velocity we show that ice-marginal lake-drainage of the scale observed in 2015 causes significant reorganisation of the channelised subglacial drainage, both in the short term with a sudden injection of water and channel development, and in the long term with changes in the outlet boundary conditions and basal friction. As the number of ice-marginal lakes and the frequency of their drainage increases going forward we expect these dynamic drainage reorganisations to become more common, with implications for future GrIS dynamics. 

How to cite: Hepburn, A. J. and the SLIDE Team: How do variations in ice-marginal lake water depth impact subglacial hydrology routing and ice dynamics? , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10780, 2025.

EGU25-10834 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Subglacial blister evolution in the event of supraglacial lake drainage 

Harry Stuart and Ian Hewitt

Meltwater lakes on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet are forming at higher altitudes due to atmospheric warming. They can often drain suddenly (within hours) by evacuating water through crevasses in the ice. This water then spreads along the ice-bedrock interface, resulting in hydraulic jacking on the order of metres. The effect of such events on the wider subglacial drainage system is poorly understood, and current models of the large-scale subglacial drainage system are unable to resolve these high volumes of fluid being injected over short time scales.

We present a mathematical model for the radial expansion of a subglacial ‘blister’ both during and after injection from a supraglacial lake. The model incorporates both turbulent and laminar water flow, both of which are found to be significant over different time and length scales. We also include a novel formulation for the fluid ‘leak-off’ to represent the decay of the blister volume as the injected water drains into the wider subglacial drainage system. This model can be used as a buffer to regularise numerical formulations of the larger-scale subglacial network.

How to cite: Stuart, H. and Hewitt, I.: Subglacial blister evolution in the event of supraglacial lake drainage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10834, 2025.

EGU25-11107 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Investigating seasonal basal properties in Greenland through ice velocity inversion 

Majbritt Kristin Eckert, Anne Solgaard, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Christine S. Hvidberg

Surface melt runoff at the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet has long been linked to seasonal surface velocity changes caused by water lubricating the base of the ice sheet and enhancing basal sliding. The relationship between seasonal runoff and velocity patterns has been studied and other behaviors besides increased sliding have been found. This suggests a link to different states of basal drainage systems and basal properties (Moon et al., 2014; Solgaard et al., 2022). We investigate the impact of surface melt runoff on the dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet margins by determining basal properties. Using the finite element ice flow model Úa (Gudmundsson et al., 2012) constrained by surface velocities from the PROMICE velocity product (Solgaard et al., 2021), we invert for the ice rate factor A and basal slipperiness C. This approach allows us to investigate the effect of surface melt water on ice velocities and is an important step towards improving the sensitivity of ice flow models to seasonal climate variations.

How to cite: Eckert, M. K., Solgaard, A., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Hvidberg, C. S.: Investigating seasonal basal properties in Greenland through ice velocity inversion, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11107, 2025.

Streams and lakes develop each summer over the marginal regions of the Greenland ice sheet. These hydrological features reach into the accumulation area and confirm that surface runoff of meltwater from above the ice sheet’s equilibrium line contributes to Greenland’s mass loss.

The CASSANDRA project (2019 to 2024) united a team of four researchers to (i) study the physical processes at the visible runoff limit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, (ii) quantify how the runoff limit changed over time and (iii) assess the impact of a rising runoff limit on the ice sheet’s surface mass balance.  To this end, we carried out six field campaigns on the ice sheet, we developed algorithms for runoff limit mapping from Landsat and MODIS, we quantified changing firn properties from Operation Ice Bridge (OIB) radar data and we modelled lateral meltwater flow and superimposed ice formation.

We found that the area of the ice sheet experiencing visible surface runoff has expanded by about 30 % since the late 1980s. The visible runoff area peaked in 2012 and thereafter fluctuated around relatively high extents. By comparing the extent of the runoff area with firn structure mapped from OIB, we found a clear agreement between visible runoff and areas where near-surface firn pore space is depleted. These areas contain metres-thick near-surface ice slabs, which are substantially thicker directly underneath supraglacial streams and lakes.

In our field area close to the visible runoff limit we measured and modelled that up to roughly 80 % of the meltwater refreezes as superimposed ice on top of existing ice slabs, thickening the slabs by between 0.2 to 1 m per year. Ice-sheet-wide estimates show that due to intense refreezing, current ice slab areas contribute only modest amounts of runoff.

While we shed light on the previously understudied area of the Greenland Ice Sheet around the runoff limit, we also revealed that this area is the source of substantial uncertainties in RCM-modelled Greenland surface mass balance. RCM-simulated runoff limits differ strongly between models, either placing them lower or higher than our measurements indicate. The differences between RCM-simulated runoff limits also substantially impact simulated total runoff. Addressing these uncertainties requires improved simulation of meltwater hydrology and refreezing processes near the runoff limit. This is crucial, as firn areas newly affected by surface runoff are projected to continue to expand.

How to cite: Machguth, H., Tedstone, A., Clerx, N., and Jullien, N.: Meltwater runoff from Greenland's firn area – what we have learned during five years of research focused on the Greenland Ice Sheet runoff limit, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11189, 2025.

EGU25-11691 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Summer-to-winter record of Greenland moulin water pressure and electrical conductivity revealed by Cryoegg wireless instruments 

Sarah Mann, Mike Prior-Jones, Hawkins Jonathan, and Craw Lisa and the SLIDE Team

Subglacial and englacial hydrology is a key driver of ice dynamics in glaciers and ice sheets. Observations of subglacial and englacial water storage, especially in moulins, are extremely challenging, and long-term datasets are consequently limited. The transition from the summer melt season to the winter drainage system shutdown is rarely observed.

We studied a glacial moulin on Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland between July and December 2024 using Cryoegg instruments. Cryoegg is a spherical, wireless device which monitors conditions within the englacial and subglacial environment of glaciers and ice sheets. It provides hourly temperature, pressure, and electrical conductivity (EC) measurements[JH1]  of englacial and subglacial water. 

Three Cryoeggs were deployed, two at different depths in one moulin and the third in another moulin nearby. We observe the changing hydrology of these moulins, including the transition from summer to winter. In summer, warm sunny days produce diurnal cycles in the pressure and EC measurements, with high pressure and low-EC water being present during the local afternoon and evening. The transition to winter includes evidence of the release of stored (high-EC) water into the drainage system and a gradual transition to a high-pressure, high-EC state as midwinter approaches.  

How to cite: Mann, S., Prior-Jones, M., Jonathan, H., and Lisa, C. and the SLIDE Team: Summer-to-winter record of Greenland moulin water pressure and electrical conductivity revealed by Cryoegg wireless instruments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11691, 2025.

EGU25-13962 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Assessment of Dielectric Mixing Models for L-Band Radiometric Measurement of Liquid Water Content in Greenland Ice Sheet 

Alamgir Hossan, Andreas Colliander, Joel Harper, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Baptiste Vandecrux, Julie Miller, and Shawn Marshall

Surface melting and consequent runoff/refreezing play an increasingly crucial role in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and its contribution to the global sea-level rise. Space-based L-band radiometry offers a promising tool for quantifying the total surface-to-subsurface liquid water amount (LWA) in the firn, in addition to providing the areal extent and duration of seasonal surface snow melt. Here, we evaluate the performance of commonly used microwave dielectric mixing models in determining the total LWA using a snow microwave emission and radiative transfer model in conjunction with L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (TB) observations from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) missions. The L-band TB responds to the real and imaginary parts of the firn dielectric constant, which increases markedly with liquid water content (LWC) in the firn. The measured dielectric constant is translated into LWA using a model between snow LWC and the dielectric constant. The formulation of the effective dielectric constant of the ice, air, and water mixture is key to accurately quantifying LWA; as it is independent of the radiometer measurement, it adds an uncertainty component to the LWA retrieval that is solely depending on the accuracy of this dielectric mixing model. We apply different dielectric mixing formulations in the forward model to estimate LWA, which we compare to the corresponding LWA from a locally calibrated ice sheet Energy and Mass Balance (EMB) model and the Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model within NASA’s Icesheet and Sea-Level System Model (ISSM). The EMB model was driven by in situ measurements from automatic weather stations (AWS) of the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) and Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) located in the percolation zone of the GrIS, and the GEMB model was forced with the ERA-5 reanalysis products. Both models were initialized with relevant in situ profiles of density, snow and firn stratigraphy, and the sub-surface temperature measured at the AWS locations. The agreements and discrepancies between the LWA estimates from the mixing models and their comparison with the LWA from firn models will be presented. The analysis assesses the impact of the dielectric mixing model choice on the LWA retrieval algorithm to create an observational dataset of seasonal LWA across GrIS.

How to cite: Hossan, A., Colliander, A., Harper, J., Schlegel, N.-J., Vandecrux, B., Miller, J., and Marshall, S.: Assessment of Dielectric Mixing Models for L-Band Radiometric Measurement of Liquid Water Content in Greenland Ice Sheet, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13962, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13962, 2025.

EGU25-13983 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

A Physics-Based Parameterization of Mean Melt Lake Depth and Area Fraction of Supraglacial Melt Lakes  

Danielle Grau, Azeez Hussain, and Alexander A Robel

Over the past several decades, the abundance of melt lakes appearing on Antarctic ice shelves has increased. Most notably these melt lakes have led to large-scale fracturing and calving events such as the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapse during the 2001-2002 melt season. In this work, we analyze the surface roughness of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to determine its self-affinity, which quantifies the repeating topographical scaling pattern of the surface, using ICESat-2 land ice elevation altimeter tracks. We find a relationship between roughness parameters and mean melt lake depth and area fraction by developing a workflow of Monte Carlo simulations that simulate the distribution of melt lakes as they form on the glacial surface. From this workflow, we derive two mathematical parametrizations, that utilize the roughness parameters and melt supply, to estimate the mean melt lake depth and mean area fraction of melt lakes on a self-affine surface. We validate the effectiveness of these parameterizations by computing the estimated mean melt lake depth and area coverage from 2013-2018 using estimated runoff from RACMO and the analyzed ICESat-2 tracks and compare this estimation with a Landsat-based set of observations. In the future, we plan to implement these parameterizations into large-scale climate and ice sheet models to improve albedo and ice damage simulation.  

How to cite: Grau, D., Hussain, A., and Robel, A. A.: A Physics-Based Parameterization of Mean Melt Lake Depth and Area Fraction of Supraglacial Melt Lakes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13983, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13983, 2025.

EGU25-14465 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Bridging Observations and Models: Isolating Frictional and Frontal Controls on Glacier Dynamics in Northwestern and Central-West Greenland 

Kuba Oniszk, Jessica Badgeley, Gong Cheng, William Colgan, and Shfaqat Abbas Khan

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a major contributor to present-day sea-level rise, with ice dynamics playing a central role in its mass loss. Previous studies suggest that Greenland’s glaciers can be broadly classified into three distinct types based on seasonal velocity patterns near the ice front. The differences between patterns are primarily attributed to interactions of two critical processes: basal motion at the ice-bed interface and frontal ablation at the ice-ocean interface. Many glaciers exhibit behaviour that deviates from the idealised classifications, and even within the same glacier, the patterns may vary significantly from upstream to downstream. These observations underscore the complexity of the processes that drive ice motion.

In this study, we aim to separate the influences of basal motion and frontal ablation on the seasonal flow variations of 33 marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Northwestern and Central-West Greenland. Using surface velocity observations derived from the ITS_LIVE offset-tracking dataset, we compare these with modelled results from the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, which incorporates monthly ice-front positions and surface mass balance inputs but neglects explicit subglacial hydrology. By incorporating modelled velocities, we move from correlation to causation, quantifying the contributions of frontal dynamics and basal conditions to the seasonal flow signal. This allows us to explore the extent to which each driver affects specific locations in a crucial step toward a greater understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in glacier behaviour.

How to cite: Oniszk, K., Badgeley, J., Cheng, G., Colgan, W., and Khan, S. A.: Bridging Observations and Models: Isolating Frictional and Frontal Controls on Glacier Dynamics in Northwestern and Central-West Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14465, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14465, 2025.

EGU25-16505 | Posters on site | CR2.3

Modelling Greenland’s subglacial hydrology using CUAS-MPI 

Thomas Kleiner, Yannic Fischler, Christian Bischof, Dorthe Petersen, and Angelika Humbert

Subglacial hydrology plays a key role in many glaciological processes. The amount of water at the glacier base and the properties of the hydraulic system modulate the basal sliding and, thus, ice discharge. The subglacial discharge of fresh water impacts the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the adjacent fjords or ice shelf cavities. It is a main driver of submarine melting and glacier terminus retreat for Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers.

We apply the MPI-parallel implementation of the Confined-Unconfined Aquifer System model (CUAS-MPI) to the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. The model is forced with water input from ice sheet basal melt and additional runoff (daily) from the regional climate model RACMO. CUAS-MPI is based on an effective porous media approach (single-layer, Darcy-type flow) in which the hydraulic transmissivity is spatially and temporally varying. The transmissivity evolves due to channel wall melt, creep-closure, and cavity opening. This makes it possible to simulate inefficient and efficient water transport without resolving individual channels.

Based on daily model output data, we analyse the evolution of Greenland’s subglacial system and the water discharge into selected fjords and compare the results for a normal year (2018) with a particularly warm year (2019).

How to cite: Kleiner, T., Fischler, Y., Bischof, C., Petersen, D., and Humbert, A.: Modelling Greenland’s subglacial hydrology using CUAS-MPI, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16505, 2025.

EGU25-17121 | Orals | CR2.3

Self-regulation of fast-moving glaciers in Greenland: from borehole observations to spaceborne measurements 

Poul Christoffersen, Samuel Doyle, Bryn Hubbard, Kuba Oniszk, Charlotte Schoonman, Thomas Chudley, Robert Law, Tun Jan Young, and Coen Hofstede

Subglacial drainage systems exert control on glacier motion; however, the nature and evolution of these drainage systems are not well established. Here, we report the co-evolving state of friction, water pressure and water flows at the base of Sermeq Kujalleq (Store Glacier), a fast-moving glacier in west Greenland. Seismic records from a centreline location on a major subglacial drainage axis show stick-slip impulsive events (icequakes) to be far more frequent in winter than in summer. In contrast, the amplitude of low-frequency tremor from subglacial water flows are low in winter but high in summer. Additional insight into this basal environment is gained through boreholes, which show a strong anti-phase relationship between water pressure recorded in water-filled cavities that are either connected with or isolated from surface melt inputs.

Collectively, the observations show a winter-system of largely unconnected cavities switching rapidly to a system of linked or partially linked cavities as soon as meltwater reaches the bed. The formation of a channel occurs later in the summer season and is seen in our data as a distinct slow-down in glacier speed. The return to the winter system of mostly unconnected cavities is seen from a switch to in-phase water pressure in borehole records. Reduced seismic tremor at this point in time is consistent with linked cavities becoming isolated, while more frequent stick-slip events suggest the glacier bed is stronger after the melt season has ended. We hypothesise glacier motion is governed by the extent to which cavities are either isolated (strong bed) or linked (weak bed), and that channelisation strengthens the bed by capturing water from the latter.

To upscale our findings we use spaceborne measurements of glacier velocities to look for evidence of channelisation in the basal drainage system more widely. Out of 54 glaciers examined in west Greenland, we report 45 glaciers with strong self-regulation and a hydro-dynamic behaviour similar to Sermeq Kujalleq (Store Glacier). We found a statistically robust correlation between latitude and the elevation to which channelised systems could be traced on tidewater glaciers, with channels extending to 1,500 m or higher beneath tidewater glaciers in the southwest. For land-terminating glaciers in the same sector we found no evidence of channelisation above 1,000 m elevation and there was no statistical correlation with latitude. Contrary to the current consensus: that the additional runoff generated in warmer and longer summers is routed away with little or no impact on the ice sheet, our study shows this self-regulation is only strong for marine-terminating glaciers. High melt combined with poor drainage in the land-terminating setting make the southwest sector of the Greenland more vulnerable to climate change than previous work and the latest IPCC report has suggested.

How to cite: Christoffersen, P., Doyle, S., Hubbard, B., Oniszk, K., Schoonman, C., Chudley, T., Law, R., Young, T. J., and Hofstede, C.: Self-regulation of fast-moving glaciers in Greenland: from borehole observations to spaceborne measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17121, 2025.

EGU25-18456 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

Control of seasonal ice dynamics by overdeepenings. 

Andrew Jones, Darrel Swift, and Stephen Livingstone

Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently the most significant single global contributor to barystatic sea level rise. The discharge of ice directly into the ocean from marine terminating glaciers is the cause of approximately 40% of this sea level rise. Understanding the processes that control how ice slides over the bed is fundamental to improving predictions of future GrIS mass loss.

Ice flow through major outlet glaciers dominates discharge of ice to the ocean, and this often involves flow through complexly overdeepened glacially eroded troughs. The adverse slopes of overdeepenings have the potential to modulate subglacial water pressure both by reducing hydraulic gradient, and via supercooling processes.

Here, we explore the control exerted on ice dynamics by the prominent overdeepening near the terminus of Upernavik Isstrøm II, an outlet glacier on the west coast of Greenland. We observe a ‘marine-isolating’ effect on the flow of inland ice, with ice dynamics dominated by marine processes downstream of the riegel and by melt processes inland of the riegel. Further, intriguing patterns of seasonal velocity variation were observed within the overdeepening under high melt conditions that support the possibility that adverse slopes of overdeepenings suppress the seasonal development of efficient channelised subglacial drainage, which is a key mediator of rates of sliding.   

How to cite: Jones, A., Swift, D., and Livingstone, S.: Control of seasonal ice dynamics by overdeepenings., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18456, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18456, 2025.

EGU25-18570 | Posters on site | CR2.3

Modelling the surface hydrology of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica 

Sammie Buzzard, Jon Elsey, and Alex Robel

Remote sensing and modelling studies have shown several Antarctic Ice Shelves to be vulnerable to damage from surface meltwater. With surface melting predicated to increase, understanding the surface hydrology of ice shelves in the present and the future is an essential first step to reliably project future vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to meltwater driven hydrofracture. This has implications for sea level rise from ice sheet melt due to the loss of the buttressing effect provided by ice shelves on the grounded ice sheet.

Here we present a surface hydrology modelling study focused on the George VI Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula. George VI is the second largest ice shelf remaining on the Antarctic Peninsula and experiences significant seasonal surface melt including the formation of surface lakes.

We use MONARCHS: a 3-D model of ice shelf surface hydrology. MONARCHS is the first comprehensive model of surface hydrology to be developed for Antarctic ice shelves, enabling us to incorporate key processes such as the lateral transport of surface meltwater.

This community-driven, open-access model has been developed with input from observations, and allows us to provide new insights into surface meltwater distribution on Antarctica’s ice shelves. This enables us to answer key questions about their past and future evolution under changing atmospheric conditions and vulnerability to meltwater driven hydrofracture and collapse. We solicit community feedback on future additions of new processes to the model, or case studies of interest.

How to cite: Buzzard, S., Elsey, J., and Robel, A.: Modelling the surface hydrology of George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18570, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18570, 2025.

EGU25-18788 | Posters on site | CR2.3

Speed variability of Wordie Bay outlet glaciers driven by subglacial hydrology 

Yuting Dong, Ji Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Steven Franke, Angelika Humbert, Lukas Krieger, Dana Floricioiu, Daniela Jansen, Veit Helm, Thomas Kleiner, and Lea-Sophie Höyns

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) accelerating mass loss is dominated by ice dynamics [1]. The most up-to-date research reveals a widespread increase in discharge from glaciers on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula since 2018 [2]. The western AP is roughly divided by Brabant and Anvers islands of the Palmer Archipelago between the cooler waters of the Bransfield Strait to the north and the warmer Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the south. The warm ocean water is widely accepted to be the main driver for acceleration of marine-terminating ice streams by a reduction of the resistive force due to ocean-driven ice shelf thinning, ice shelf disintegration, terminus retreat and increasing ice damage [3, 4].

In addition to the long-term ice dynamics for decades, short-term seasonal speed variability on the grounded ice sheet of AP have been reported that an average summer speed-up of 12.4% for tidewater glaciers in western AP [5] and 15% for glaciers feeding into the George VI Ice Shelf [6]. Current research links these speed fluctuations with seasonal ocean warming and surface melt [5], however the seasonality of speed varies between years and regions. Changes in subglacial hydrology can have large effects on glacier dynamics, including reductions in basal friction and short-term accelerations of ice flow, but until now these changes have remained challenging to detect.

In our study, we focused on the dynamics and driving mechanisms of outlet glaciers that flow into Wordie Bay on western AP. After the Wordie Ice Shelf break-up, these former tributary glaciers have significantly increased their flow speed and dynamically thinned. The mainstream Fleming Glacier is currently one of the fastest outlet glaciers on western AP. We use high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) data from the TanDEM-X mission and Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA), and the radar depth sounder (RDS) data from the Center for Remote Sensing and Integrated Systems (CReSIS) mission to detect new subglacial lakes. We also use time-series DEMs to estimate subglacial lake height anomalies and analyze how subglacial lake filling and drainage processes affect glacier surface velocities. To further explore the basal conditions of sliding, we invert for time-series basal drag distribution with the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) using high resolution geometry and velocity data from remote sensing.

 

Reference:

  • Otosaka, I.N., et al., Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from 1992 to 2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 2023. 15(4): p. 1597-1616.
  • Davison, B.J., et al., Widespread increase in discharge from west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers since 2018. The Cryosphere, 2024. 18(7): p. 3237-3251.
  • Cook, A.J., et al., Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula. Science, 2016. 353(6296): p. 283-286.
  • Wallis, B.J., et al., Ocean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula. Nature Communications, 2023. 14(1): p. 7535.
  • Wallis, B.J., et al., Widespread seasonal speed-up of west Antarctic Peninsula glaciers from 2014 to 2021. Nature Geoscience, 2023. 16(3): p. 231-237.
  • Boxall, K., et al., Seasonal land-ice-flow variability in the Antarctic Peninsula. The Cryosphere, 2022. 16(10): p. 3907-3932.

How to cite: Dong, Y., Zhao, J., Wolovick, M., Franke, S., Humbert, A., Krieger, L., Floricioiu, D., Jansen, D., Helm, V., Kleiner, T., and Höyns, L.-S.: Speed variability of Wordie Bay outlet glaciers driven by subglacial hydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18788, 2025.

EGU25-19370 | Orals | CR2.3

Application of bedrock elastic deformation data to study meltwater transportation in Greenland 

Jiangjun Ran, Pavel Ditmar, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Lin Liu, Roland Klees, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Twila Moon, Jiancheng Li, Michael Bevis, Min Zhong, Xavier Fettweis, Junguo Liu, Brice Noël, Ck Shum, Jianli Chen, Liming Jiang, and Tonie van Dam

For the first time, we apply bedrock elastic deformation data to study meltwater transportation within the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). We consider the vertical component of the deformations extracted from GPS data records acquired by the Greenland GNSS Network (GNET) stations. Data time-series from 22 stations distributed along the entire Greenland coast are analyzed. Various geophysical models are used to eliminate nuisance signals from the data. This concerns, among others, deformation associated with surface mass balance (SMB) processes. To quantify the effect of SMB processes, we use the estimates produced by regional climate models, such as RACMO2.3p2. The residual vertical deformations remaining after the subtraction of nuisance signals are fit to a simple analytic model, which allows us to quantify some parameters associated with buffered water storage (i.e., the temporal storage of meltwater on its way to the ocean). Among others, we quantify the average water storage time per station. We find that the average water storage time in Greenland is about 8 weeks. It is slightly larger along the northeast (9±2 weeks) and west (9±3 weeks) coasts. For the southeast coast, it is roughly halved (4.5±2 weeks). This is likely because the ablation zone in the southeast is relatively narrow and steep. Furthermore, we find that the water runoff estimated by regional climate models may require a down- or up-scaling, with the scaling factors being correlated with summer temperature anomalies. In the warmest summers the required runoff upscaling may reach 20%. Likely explanations are an underestimation of water melt or an overestimation of water retention in the firn (or both). The latter can happen if the model underestimates degradation of firn storage capacity caused by a reduction in the pore space and formation of impermeable ice layers. The finding that current regional climate models may require an adjustment in instances of high summer temperature is highly important in view of the ongoing climate warming. Summer temperatures that are considered high nowadays may become normal in the near future. Our study paves the way for more realistic projections of future GrIS meltwater production and its contribution to global sea level rise. Our results have been recently published in Nature (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08096-3).

How to cite: Ran, J., Ditmar, P., van den Broeke, M. R., Liu, L., Klees, R., Khan, S. A., Moon, T., Li, J., Bevis, M., Zhong, M., Fettweis, X., Liu, J., Noël, B., Shum, C., Chen, J., Jiang, L., and Dam, T. V.: Application of bedrock elastic deformation data to study meltwater transportation in Greenland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19370, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19370, 2025.

EGU25-19537 | ECS | Posters on site | CR2.3

The Dynamics of Lubricated Gravity Currents: Insights into Ice Stream Formation and Evolution 

Sada Nand and Roiy Sayag

Ice streams, such as those along the Siple Coast in Antarctica, serve as critical conduits for transporting ice from the interior of ice sheets to the ocean, significantly contributing to sea-level rise. The dynamics of many ice streams is believed to be strongly governed by subglacial hydrology, which modulates basal friction and consequently the ice flow. Lubricated gravity currents provide a simplified yet robust analog for examining such glaciological phenomena. In this study, we employ controlled laboratory experiments to explore the dynamics of lubricated gravity currents. In those experiments, a polymer solution representing ice, with flow similar to Glen’s law, propagated under gravity axisymmetrically over a flat surface. Beneath this gravity current, a less viscous fluid is discharged axisymmetrically to provide lubrication, mimicking the subglacial system. Varying the viscosity and flux ratios of the two fluids, we observe various flow patterns, reminiscent of ice streams. These patterns, which include shear margin, exhibit distinct modes characterized by a progressive reduction in the number of streams with the flux ratio. At high flux ratios, the system transitions to a single-stream mode. Additionally, we observed patterns such as stream branching and the shutting down of streams. Our findings elucidate the impact of flux conditions of the ice flow and the subglacial hydrology system in determining the morphology and stability of ice streams. Through the analysis of laboratory experiments, this work highlights the significance of controlled analog studies in understanding glacial environments. Additionally, the experimental findings could serve as a benchmark for validating and refining numerical simulations in glaciology research.

How to cite: Nand, S. and Sayag, R.: The Dynamics of Lubricated Gravity Currents: Insights into Ice Stream Formation and Evolution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19537, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19537, 2025.

EGU25-21560 | Posters on site | CR2.3

Detection of a perennial firn aquifer within Nivlisen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica 

Rebecca Dell, Randall Scharien, and Connor Dean

Perennial Firn Aquifers (PFA’s) facilitate meltwater storage within an ice sheet’s firn layer. They have been extensively mapped across the Greenland Ice Sheet, largely using Operation Ice Bridge and Sentinel-1 data. However, in Antarctica, observations of PFA’s are limited to the Antarctic Peninsula, where the combination of high accumulation and ablation aids in the formation and insulation of extensive sub-surface meltwater reservoirs. On ice shelves, PFA’s have the potential to drive ice-shelf damage via hydrofracture, and it is therefore crucial that we have a better understanding of their presence beyond the Antarctic Peninsula.

 

To begin to improve our understanding for PFA’s elsewhere in Antarctica, we conduct a study on the Nivlisen Ice Shelf, an ice-shelf often characterised by extensive surface meltwater networks in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. In addition to high rates of ablation, Nivlisen Ice Shelf also experiences high accumulation rates, making the ice-shelf a good candidate for the formation of PFAs. To investigate this theory, we utilise a method previously applied on the Greenland Ice Sheet, and exploit the low backscatter values returned in C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to detect potential PFA’s. C-band SAR data is obtained from Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), and is complemented with L-band SAR imagery. With both the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) and Copernicus ROSE-L satellites planned for future launches, we hope that our work will allow us to better understand the value of combined C- and L- band research for for studies of buried meltwater across both the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.

 

 

How to cite: Dell, R., Scharien, R., and Dean, C.: Detection of a perennial firn aquifer within Nivlisen Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21560, 2025.

EGU25-45 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1

Improvement of the CLASSIC Snow Model to Better Simulate Arctic Snowpacks 

Mickaël Lalande, Christophe Kinnard, and Alexandre Roy

Current snow models – including the most sophisticated ones, such as CROCUS and SNOWPACK – struggle to properly simulate Arctic snowpack characteristics such as density profiles. Indeed, those models have been developed and designed for Alpine snowpacks, which evolve differently from Arctic ones due to higher wind speeds, increasing the compaction of the upper snowpack layers, and stronger temperature gradients, inducing upward water vapor fluxes within the snowpack and influencing the compaction and metamorphism. Both phenomena – combined with complex interactions with the vegetation – are at the origin of the wind-slab and depth hoar formation in Arctic snowpacks. The Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) – being the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) land surface component – uses a medium-complexity single-layer snow scheme. Whether correctly representing Arctic snowpack bulk characteristics requires a multilayer approach over a single-layer snow scheme is still an open question. To assess the model skills, 1D simulations were performed at ten sites – including three Arctic sites. Improvements in the snow model scheme were carried out, including three new parameterizations to better represent Arctic snow: (1) blowing snow sublimation losses, (2) wind inclusion in the computation of fresh snow density, and (3) increased wind compaction. Those improvements allow most of the current model skills to be improved at the Arctic sites. Uncertainties related to the meteorological forcing, variable measurements, snow drift, and model bias compensations are a perpetual challenge in those model assessments. Future studies will involve spatial evaluation of those model developments in addition to implementing new snow cover fraction parameterization in CLASSIC. The influence of these new developments will be assessed against the ESA Snow CCI variables for different land types and for the simulated surface energy and carbon fluxes.

How to cite: Lalande, M., Kinnard, C., and Roy, A.: Improvement of the CLASSIC Snow Model to Better Simulate Arctic Snowpacks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-45, 2025.

Snow cover and seasonally frozen ground (SFG) are the key cryospheric elements on the southern edge of Altai Mountains (SEAM). Quantifying the thermal effect of snow cover on the frozen ground remains challenging. Utilizing the datasets observed at Altai Kuwei Snow Station (AKSS) and by National Meteorological Stations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), we evaluated the thermal effect of snow cover on SFG regime. The results observed by AKSS indicated that the energy exchange between the ground and atmosphere was significantly insulated by snow cover, resulting in a considerable temperature offset between the snow surface and the ground below. This offset reached a maximum of 12.8 °C for a snow depth of 50 cm, but decreased for snowpack depths of >70 cm, whereas the snow temperature lapse rate was systematically steeper in the upper snowpack than at depth. Snow cover was the dominating driver of inter-annual differences in the SFG regime, as represented by the annual maximum freezing depth and soil heat flux. The observed average soil heat loss rate increased from 2.68 to 5.86 W/m2 on two occasions when the average snow depth decreased from 61.2 cm to 13.7 cm, resulting in an increase in maximum freezing depth of SFG from 69 cm to >250 cm soil depth. The results observed by CMA also demonstrate how snow cover controlled the SFG regime by warming the ground and inhibiting freezing of the soil column. Snow cover caused a 44.5-cm decline of annual maximum freezing depth during 1961-2015 period. SFG degradation between 1961 and 2015 was accompanied by increases in both air temperature and snow cover, with the former playing the dominant role. The correlation between snow cover and the ground–atmosphere temperature offset provides a new empirical method of evaluating the effective thermal effect of snow cover on SFG.

How to cite: zhang, W.: Observations on snow cover and frozen ground in the Chinese Altai Mountains, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2196, 2025.

EGU25-3069 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1

Drifting Snow Particle Fragmentation Enhances Blowing Snow Sublimation 

Guang Li, Jiacheng Bao, Hongxiang Yu, and Ning Huang

Snowflakes usually have different shapes for different formation environments. When drifting snow happens, fragmentation makes snowflakes transform into rounder shapes and releases more small particles. This is important because it changes airborne snow particles' size distribution(SPSD) and concentration, affecting blowing snow mass flux and sublimation rate. However, current drifting and blowing snow models ignore this, increasing uncertainty in predicting snow mass and energy balance. Here, we develop a drifting and blowing snow model considering the snow fragmentation process during particle-bed interaction and investigate the effects of fragmentation on drifting and blowing snow. The results show that compared to not considering fragmentation, fragmentation changes the SPSD, resulting in an enhancement of mass flux and sublimation rate. The sublimation rate of blowing snow increases by 75% on average under a moderate wind speed ( with a friction velocity between 0.3 and 0.5 m/s). Initial SPSD also affects the final sublimation rate, which indicates that SPSD is an important factor for blowing snow modeling.

How to cite: Li, G., Bao, J., Yu, H., and Huang, N.: Drifting Snow Particle Fragmentation Enhances Blowing Snow Sublimation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3069, 2025.

EGU25-3774 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Dry snow densification over ice sheets in the ORCHIDEE land surface model  

Philippe Conesa, Cécile Agosta, Sylvie Charbit, Simon Beylat, and Christophe Dumas

The Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are particularly vulnerable to global warming. Surface melt and runoff are increasing over Greenland, inducing a decrease in surface mass balance. Projections suggest that this process will accelerate in the future and could also affect the Antarctic ice sheet. Over ice sheets, snowpacks can reach several tens of meters and have the capacity to store and refreeze liquid water. This process directly impacts the amount of runoff and is strongly dependent on the physical characteristics of the snowpack, particularly the snow density governed by metamorphism and overburden pressure. Consequently, understanding and modelling the evolution of ice sheets requires an accurate representation of surface and internal snowpack processes.  However, many Earth system models have simplified snowpack schemes, often evaluated and adapted for seasonal snow but not for polar snow conditions.

Here we present an automatic method for initialization and calibration of densification in snowpack models, applied  to the ORCHIDEE model, the land surface scheme of the IPSL-CM Earth system model. ORCHIDEE includes an intermediate complexity representation of the snowpack with 12 snow layers and 8 ice layers. In this work, we use ORCHIDEE in offline conditions with atmospheric forcings from the polar-oriented regional atmospheric model MAR. We develop a snowpack initialization method adaptable to any snowpack thickness and model. To address the limitations of densification parameterizations for polar regions identified in ORCHIDEE, we use  an automatic tuning method known as History Matching to calibrate free parameters of the densification formulations. Calibration of 1D simulations over two characteristic dry-snow locations in Greenland and Antarctica enable us to improve densification across the rest of the ice sheets. We apply this method for two different types of density parameterizations and obtain similar good agreement with observed density profiles from the SUMup database. In the future, this methodology can be extended to other free parameters of the model, such as those associated with the albedo parameterization.

How to cite: Conesa, P., Agosta, C., Charbit, S., Beylat, S., and Dumas, C.: Dry snow densification over ice sheets in the ORCHIDEE land surface model , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3774, 2025.

EGU25-3784 | Orals | CR5.1

Characterizing and Predicting Watershed-Wide Snowpack Ripening Patterns with Machine Learning Methods 

Joel Harper, Clément Cherblanc, Javier Pérez Álvaro, and Jesse Johnson

A melting snowpack initiates runoff production after cold content has been eliminated and the pore liquid water content has grown to overcome capillary resistance, a process called ripening. Here, we quantify the time-space distribution of ripening within a 4341 km² mountain basin in Montana, USA. Using model output for a 19 year period we compute a time-series of the energy needed for ripening, termed the Runoff Energy Hurdle (REH). The REH is associated with snowpack mass but is variably influenced by cold content, peaks earlier than mass, and is typically eliminated in days. We show that individual locations have complex year-to-year histories of REH growth and loss. Through K-means clustering, we identify four distinct ripening behaviors across high year-to-year variability. One cluster has ripening events throughout the snow season and can include 7-92 % of the basin depending on the year. Three additional clusters ripen progressively later in the spring season within narrowing time windows. We test machine learning methods for predicting the major spring ripening event at each location, based solely on snowpack state. The predictability is proportional to the magnitude of REH, with runoff activation of the highest REH locations predictable within an 18-day window eight weeks in advance. 

How to cite: Harper, J., Cherblanc, C., Pérez Álvaro, J., and Johnson, J.: Characterizing and Predicting Watershed-Wide Snowpack Ripening Patterns with Machine Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3784, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3784, 2025.

EGU25-5827 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1

Some insights from the second principle for snow modelling 

Kevin Fourteau, Kaoane Jondeau, and Clement Cances

As snowpacks are largely governed by thermodynamics, special care is usually given as to ensure the first principle, i.e. energy conservation, in their mathematical and numerical descriptions. On the other hand, the second principle, i.e. entropy production, has received less attention. However, the second principle, and its numerical translation, has proven to be a powerful tool in applied mathematics to ensure the stability of mathematical and numerical models. The goal of this work is thus to present the derivation of thermodynamically consistent numerical snowpack models. This rigorous approach restricts the number of acceptable numerical schemes that unconditionally comply with the second principle, and which are thus free of spurious oscillations, overshoots, or divergence. As examples, we consider some regularly encountered cases of numerical instabilities in snowpack models, and re-visit them based on the second principle point of view.

How to cite: Fourteau, K., Jondeau, K., and Cances, C.: Some insights from the second principle for snow modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5827, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5827, 2025.

As a form of solid precipitation, snow plays a crucial role in climate regulation by reflecting solar radiation and insulating the ground. Additionally, it serves as a vital water resource, influencing hydrological cycles through its seasonal melting process. So, accurate predictions of snowfall and the subsequent evolution of the snowpack are essential. In this study, some investigations are made to reveal the impact of multi-strategically assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) precipitation and Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) water vapor radiances (WVR) on forecasting a heavy snowfall event and snow properties on the ground over the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau employing the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) and the Four-Dimensional Variational assimilation system. DA strategies includes two aspects: the initial time of Reg_NWPs runs and the type of observations used. The initial times of Reg_NWPs are 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, and 1200 UTC on October 28, 2022. Separate and combined DA tests are conducted to forecast. For the process of snowfall, the joint assimilation of the two not only yields multi-dimensional atmospheric insights but also addresses the limitations of individual assimilation. Assimilation GPM and AHI are respective sensitivity to the lower layers (about 800hpa) and upper layers (about 400hpa) of model. The individual assimilation GPM has the greatest effect on near-surface humidity field, and AHI plays a dominant role in the joint assimilation. In addition, we further compare the 12-hourly cumulative snowfall with in-situ meteorological station observations. The predictions of snowfall from DA_G&A perform much better with the correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error 0.36 and 3.14mm, respectively. As for different initial times of NWPs, the best snowfall forecast is 0600 UTC on October 28, 2022, and the CC is 0.4. For the snow properties on theground, the results indicate that the predictions of snow properties, such as snow depth (SD), snow cover fraction (SCF) and snow albedo (SAL), are influenced by both the initial time of Reg_NWPs and the type of observations. DA_G&A showed a significant increase in deep snow area (SD >15cm), and a decrease in shallow snow area (SD<5cm). Comparing with some reanalyzed and remote sensing inversion datasets, the predictions exhibit good physical consistency between snow parameters and fine temporal-spatial resolution. However, the land surface scheme of Reg_NWPs tends to overestimate SCF and SAL. So, in the future, the integration of a land surface DA system (LDAS) into Reg_NWPs will be considered for on-line coupling.

 

How to cite: Ren, J. and Huang, C.: Impact of the Snowfall and Snow Properties Predictions with Multiple Data Assimilation Strategies Digesting GPM Precipitation and Himawari-8/AHI water vapor radiance into Reg_NWPs over TP plateau , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6026, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6026, 2025.

EGU25-8377 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Evaluation of simulated snow inside forests using measured ground temperature 

Brage Storebakken, Erwin Rottler, Michael Warscher, and Ulrich Strasser

Forests influence the inside-canopy snow dynamics in various ways depending on topography and the prevailing climate. Understanding how forest effects on snow change with climate variability and climate change is essential for predicting the future role of forests for seasonal snow dynamics. Thereby location-specific studies, such as the one presented here, provide valuable insights into forest-snow interactions within particular regions. In this study, the physically-based and fully distributed snow model openAMUNDSEN, was used to simulate the seasonal snow cover evolution in the Berchtesgaden National Park, Bavaria, Germany. This area is characterized by significant elevation differences (ranging up to 2000 meters within a 3.5 km distance) and offers an ideal setting to examine how forest-snow interactions vary across complex mountain terrain. The model is forced with meteorological data collected from 20 automatic weather stations located in open areas and distributed across different elevations. Simulations were conducted at a spatial resolution of 50 x 50 meters. The temperature at 10 cm ground was measured by 150 temperature-moisture sensors positioned within the forest. These sensors are deployed across various elevations and forest densities. Using these measurements, snow cover duration and snow disappearance date were derived for forested plots and used to evaluate the simulated snow cover. The results indicate that observed and simulated snow metrics generally show consistent patterns within the forested regions of the study area, though some deviations were observed at specific locations. The presented investigations contribute to a more detailed understanding of forest-snow interactions in mountainous environments.

How to cite: Storebakken, B., Rottler, E., Warscher, M., and Strasser, U.: Evaluation of simulated snow inside forests using measured ground temperature, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8377, 2025.

EGU25-9709 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1

Modelling Meltwater Infiltration and Refreezing in Snow under Non-Isothermal Conditions 

Camilla Crippa, Alessio Fumagalli, Anna Scotti, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni

The flow of meltwater through snow, acknowledged as a porous medium, is a crucial hydrological process essential for predicting the cryosphere’s response to climate change. This work aims to model the intricate coupling between meltwater infiltration and the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of ice-melt phase change at the Darcy scale. The proposed model consists of the Richards’ equation for infiltration, and evolution equations for ice and water temperature fields, which account for the thermal budget resulting from melt refreezing. Additionally, the model takes into account variations in porosity within the ice structure. The study presents numerical results from simulations conducted on 2D models of snowpacks with distinct initial levels of dryness and varying physical setups, which examine the mechanics of infiltration and alteration of the porosity structure due to refreezing. The implementation employs the PorePy and PyGeoN Python libraries.

How to cite: Crippa, C., Fumagalli, A., Scotti, A., Papini, M., and Longoni, L.: Modelling Meltwater Infiltration and Refreezing in Snow under Non-Isothermal Conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9709, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9709, 2025.

EGU25-9995 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Insights of the seasonal evolution of an arctic snowpack from an intensive field campaign 

Lisa Bouvet, Neige Calonne, Pascal Hagenmuller, Laurent Arnaud, Oscar Dick, Kévin Fourteau, Mathieu Fructus, Daniel Kramer, Alexandre Langlois, Yves Lejeune, Julien Meloche, Jacques Roulle, Arvids Silis, Louis Védrine, Vincent Vionnet, and Marie Dumont

The Arctic snowpack covers a large portion of the Earth’s surface, yet detailed snow observations in these areas are sparse compared to observations in alpine environments. The Arctic presents unique environmental conditions, leading to thin snowpacks undergoing high-temperature gradients. These conditions lead to specific evolutions of the snow microstructure, which results in peculiar snowpack properties. To improve our understanding and description of the Arctic snowpack, an eight-month-long field campaign (IVORI) was conducted in Cambridge Bay at the Canadian High Arctic Research Station, Nunavut, Canada (69°N) during the 2023-2024 winter. The campaign is based on daily acquisitions of the 3D snow microstructure at 10 μm using a cold laboratory X-ray tomograph located next to the field site, along with extensive monitoring of the meteorological conditions and traditional snow characterizations. This dataset notably contains 200 tomographic samples and 50 snow stratigraphic profiles covering the full snow depth.

Here we present the specific climatic context of the 2023-2024 winter at Cambridge Bay, along with an analysis of the evolution of the vertical profiles of density and specific surface area. Finally, a preliminary overview of the performance of snow models at this Arctic location is given, highlighting potential areas for improvement.

How to cite: Bouvet, L., Calonne, N., Hagenmuller, P., Arnaud, L., Dick, O., Fourteau, K., Fructus, M., Kramer, D., Langlois, A., Lejeune, Y., Meloche, J., Roulle, J., Silis, A., Védrine, L., Vionnet, V., and Dumont, M.: Insights of the seasonal evolution of an arctic snowpack from an intensive field campaign, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9995, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9995, 2025.

EGU25-10482 | Posters on site | CR5.1

Intensive field campaign on snow microstructure evolution at a low-elevation alpine site 

Neige Calonne, Pascal Hagenmuller, Rémi Granger, Lisa Bouvet, Kévin Fourteau, Julien Brondex, François Tuzet, Yves Lejeune, Anne Dufour, Mathieu Fructus, and Marie Dumont

Dataset of snowpack properties combined with atmospheric forcing are necessary to evaluate snow models. Here, we followed the evolution of the snowpack at Col de Porte, a regular snow observation site located near Grenoble at 1350 m, with detailed measurements of the snow microstructure and related properties. The goals were 1/ to test the feasibility of using X-ray tomography for regular snowpack monitoring, 2/ to carry out an inter-comparison of different instruments for density and specific surface area (SSA) measurements, and 3/ to provide new dataset of snow properties including snow microstructure and meteorological forcing for model driving and evaluation for a low-elevation alpine environment. Over the winters 2021-2022 and 2022-2023, the standard observation program was complemented by SnowMicroPen measurements, SSA measurements with two optical instruments (DUFISSS and HISSGraS), and 3D imaging using a cold laboratory X-ray tomograph located next to the snow field. Measurements were performed weekly to bi-weekly. For tomography, snow were collected in cylinders of 4 cm diameter and 15 cm height. The scans were performed at two resolutions: 10 microns (50 min scan per cm) and 42 microns (3 min scan per cm). We present the evolution of the snowpack in relation to the weather conditions. Snow heights were well below average for the second winter, with several total snowpack disappearances, from mid-February on. Both winters showed regular rain-on-snow and melt events throughout the winter, offering suited data to evaluate wet snow and liquid water flow in models, especially. An inter-comparison of density and SSA estimates from tomography, SnowMicroPen and optical instruments is provided. Finally, we present a preliminary comparison of the snowpack evolution between measurements and the snowpack model Crocus.

How to cite: Calonne, N., Hagenmuller, P., Granger, R., Bouvet, L., Fourteau, K., Brondex, J., Tuzet, F., Lejeune, Y., Dufour, A., Fructus, M., and Dumont, M.: Intensive field campaign on snow microstructure evolution at a low-elevation alpine site, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10482, 2025.

EGU25-10619 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Simulating snow properties and Ku-band backscatter across the forest-tundra ecotone 

Georgina Woolley, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, Vincent Vionnet, Chris Derksen, Julien Meloche, Benoit Montpetit, Gabriel Hould Gosselin, Richard Essery, and Philip Marsh

Sophisticated snowpack models are required to provide accurate estimation of snowpack properties across the forest-tundra ecotone where in situ measurements are rare. As snowpack properties strongly influence radar scattering signals, accurate simulation is crucial for the success of spaceborne radar missions to retrieve snow water equivalent (SWE). In this study, we evaluate the ability of default and Arctic Crocus embedded within the Soil, Vegetation and Snow version 2 (SVS2-Crocus) land surface model to simulate snowpack properties (e.g. depth, density, SWE, specific surface area) across a 40-km transect of the Northwest Territories, Canada, using two winter seasons (2021-22 & 2022-23) of in situ measurements. An ensemble of simulated snowpack properties (120 members from default and Arctic SVS2-Crocus) were used in the Snow Microwave Radiative Transfer (SMRT) model to simulate Ku-band (13.5 GHz) backscatter. SMRT backscatter using multi-layer SVS2-Crocus snowpack simulations were compared to backscatter using a simplified 3-layer radar-equivalent snowpack. Results highlight that Arctic SVS2-Crocus wind-induced compaction modifications were spatially transferable across the forest-tundra ecotone and lead to an improvement in the simulation of surface snow density at all sites, reducing the RMSE of surface density by an average of 29%. The parameterisation of below-canopy wind speed limits the ability of SVS2-Crocus to increase surface density to match measurements, despite the inclusion of Arctic modifications and should be revised for sparse (e.g. canopy densities < 15 %) canopy environments. Basal vegetation modifications were less effective in simulating low-density basal snow layers at all sites (default RMSE: 67 kg m-3; Arctic RMSE: 69 kg m-3) but were necessary to simulate a physically representative Arctic density profile. SVS2-Crocus underestimated snow specific surface area (SSA) leading to high errors in the simulation of snow backscatter (default RMSE: 3.5 dB; Arctic RMSE: 5.3 dB). RMSE of backscatter was reduced by implementing a minimum SSA value (8.7 m2 kg-1; default RMSE: 1.4 dB; Arctic RMSE: 1.3 dB) or by scaling the scattering effects of the snowpack (polydispersity: 0.63; default RMSE: 1.6 dB; Arctic RMSE: 2.6 dB). Utilising a radar-equivalent snowpack was effective in retaining the scattering behaviour of the multi-layer snowpack (RMSE < 1 dB) providing a means to monitor SWE with reduced computational complexity.

How to cite: Woolley, G., Rutter, N., Wake, L., Vionnet, V., Derksen, C., Meloche, J., Montpetit, B., Hould Gosselin, G., Essery, R., and Marsh, P.: Simulating snow properties and Ku-band backscatter across the forest-tundra ecotone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10619, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10619, 2025.

Precipitation and snowmelt from the Andes Cordillera are vital water resources for downstream communities and ecosystems, particularly in Central Chile, where agricultural water demands peak during hot, dry summers—out of sync with the winter precipitation regime. The snowpack serves as a natural reservoir, delaying water release; however, warmer temperatures are shifting precipitation patterns from snow to rain and accelerating snowmelt, potentially undermining the snowpack’snatural storage capacity. Understanding the vulnerability of this natural reservoir to climate warming is critical. In this study, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, configured for convective-permitting simulations over South America (WRF-SAAG), to analyze snowpack dynamics under current and future climate conditions. We simulate a moderate-to-high socioeconomic scenario (SSP3.7.0) over a 22-year period and compare model outputs with observations from high-elevation hydrometeorological stations in Chile and Argentina. Results show reasonable agreement in snow water equivalent (SWE) timing and magnitude, though mean monthly precipitation is overestimated by ~20%. We calculate the Snow Storage Index (Hale et al., 2023) for both historical (2000–2021) and future (2060–2080) periods, assessing its temporal and spatial variability at both grid (4 km) and catchment scales. We also analyze key snowpack characteristics, including peak SWE, duration, and melt rates, highlighting projected reductions in natural storage capacity across the Southern Andes. This research enhances our understanding of snow dynamics in a region with complex topography and varying climatic conditions. Findings are crucial for policymakers and water managers, providing essential insights for developing climate adaptation strategies in the Southern Andes foothills, an area of growing societal importance yet relatively understudied.

How to cite: Scaff, L. and Krogh, S.: Quantifying the vulnerability of the natural storage capacity of the Andes Cordillera snowpack using a 4-km convection-permitting regional climate model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14003, 2025.

We investigated the effect of formed snowdrifts in advance on the turbulent flow and subsequent snowdrift distribution in a numerical simulation. We conducted an ideal numerical simulation for snowdrift distribution around three types of snow fences: two-dimensional fence, three-dimensional fence, and two-dimensional fence with a bottom gap. Snowdrifts resulting from an 8-hour drifting snow event were estimated by dynamically updating the bottom boundary conditions every 2 hours to reflect the developed snowdrift structures. Compared to simulation without boundary updates, snowdrift height on windward side of the two-dimensional fence was higher in the updated simulation. This increase was attributed to the weakened wind speed and modified snow particle trajectories around the previous snowdrifts. For the three-dimensional and bottom-gap fences, significant differences of snowdrift height were observed on the leeward areas between the updated and no-updated simulations. Snowdrifts on the leeward side of these fences were formed further downstream in the no-updated simulation. In contrast, the updated simulations generated snowdrifts closer to the fence on the leeward side. These findings suggested that neglecting the impact of the previous snowdrift structures in numerical simulation could lead to an overestimation of snowdrift development on the leeward side of obstacles.

How to cite: Tanji, S.: Estimating the effect of pre-existing snowdrift on turbulent airflow and subsequent snowdrift in the numerical simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14098, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14098, 2025.

EGU25-15329 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Investigating the potential of snow liquid water content retrieval from near-infrared reflectance measurements 

Valentin Philippe, Lars Mewes, and Benjamin Walter

Assessing snow melt and the liquid water content (LWC) of snow is crucial for understanding the hydrological cycle for predicting water resources, hydroelectric power generation, runoff, and potential flooding. It is also essential for correcting remote sensing signals (RADAR) and forecasting wet snow avalanches, for which snow stability is closely linked to its water content. Various methods exist to measure snow LWC, including calorimetry techniques, centrifugal separation, and dielectric methods based on permittivity differences between ice, air, and water. While these methods are well established, they are limited to low sampling resolutions and do not capture the typically high spatial variability of liquid water within the snowpack. However, Donahue et al. recently (2022) demonstrated the potential of near-infrared (NIR) spectral imaging for visualizing the 2D spatial variability of snow wetness in their study, Mapping Liquid Water Content in Snow at the Millimeter Scale: An Intercomparison of Mixed-Phase Optical Property Models Using Hyperspectral Imaging and In Situ Measurements (The Cryosphere).

The SnowImager instrument (snowimager.ch), recently developed at the Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (WSL/SLF) together with a local start-up (Davos Instruments), allows for measuring the 2D spatial NIR diffuse-reflectance of snow stratigraphies at wavelengths of 850 nm and 940 nm. Leveraging the fact that reflectance at 850 nm is less influenced by liquid water than at 940 nm, we explore the application of NIR diffuse-reflectance imaging for measuring 2D LWC distribution with the SnowImager. As a first step, we developed a wetness index based on the reflectance measurements, and which is proportional to the LWC. Because the NIR diffuse-reflectance also depends on the optical equivalent grain diameter, a baseline dry reflectance ratio was determined using dry snow samples collected over the winter season 2023/2024. In addition, field measurements (in Weissfluhjoch test site and in Tschuggen during the melt season) were carried out to compare the wetness index against conventional liquid water content measurements obtained with a capacitive sensor.

Results from the Tschuggen campaign exhibit good agreement between the wetness index and the LWC measurements with the capacitive sensor for the snowpack wetness evolution. Furthermore, the imaging approach demonstrates the ability of capturing high resolution 2D variability of the LWC within a snowpack. Although the findings are promising, limitations were identified at snow microstructure regions of high textural contrasts. Further research is required to validate the wetness index method comprehensively, particularly concerning the characterization of the baseline reflectance ratio.

How to cite: Philippe, V., Mewes, L., and Walter, B.: Investigating the potential of snow liquid water content retrieval from near-infrared reflectance measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15329, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15329, 2025.

EGU25-16197 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1 | Highlight

Drifting Snow around Icebergs: Understanding the Role of Iceberg Size and Shape Through Modeling and Observational Data 

Océane Hames, Iolène Bouzdine, Christian Haas, and Michael Lehning

The state of research on snow mass balance over sea ice has advanced in recent years, with significant progress in understanding the complex snow-ice interactions. However, challenges remain in accurately assessing the snow depth variability over sea ice in both space and time, particularly when considering the effect of snow transport by wind. In Antarctica, the calving of ice shelves generates icebergs that get trapped in landfast sea ice and act as obstacles to drifting snow. By accumulating snow around them, icebergs may influence the dynamics of land-fast ice in coastal areas but their precise impact on the mass balance and spatial distribution of snow remains uncertain. Drifting snow models are valuable for isolating the geometric properties of obstacles and independently examining their impact on snowdrifts. In our study, we investigate the effect of iceberg geometry on snowdrift quantities by combining aerial laser scanner observations and numerical Euler-Lagrange simulations. Properties such as iceberg size, roundness and elongation were evaluated and the model outcome was compared to the observations. Results show that the size of icebergs governs the snowdrift quantities, while other shape characteristics mostly affect the snow distribution across the iceberg sides. A new scaling law has been discovered, revealing a clear power-law relationship between the size of snowdrifts and icebergs. Our work improves the understanding of drifting snow processes over Antarctic land-fast ice, particularly the impact of large-scale features on the snow distribution. It can offer deeper insights into the comparison of regions with small and large icebergs, along with their associated land-fast ice characteristics and help to quantitatively predict sea ice dynamics.

How to cite: Hames, O., Bouzdine, I., Haas, C., and Lehning, M.: Drifting Snow around Icebergs: Understanding the Role of Iceberg Size and Shape Through Modeling and Observational Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16197, 2025.

EGU25-16255 | ECS | Orals | CR5.1

Monitoring dry snow metamorphism from in-situ tomographic measurements 

Oscar Dick, Neige Calonne, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Benoît Laurent

Snow physical properties result from the complex 3D arrangement of ice and air at the micrometre scale, referred to as snow microstructure. Describing snow microstructure and predicting its temporal evolution are keys for snowpack models, such as CROCUS or SNOWPACK. Currently, the evolution laws of density and SSA in both models are not fully satisfactory, as shown by some model errors when compared to observations. For example, SSA of new snow simulated on CROCUS tends to decrease faster than what is observed experimentally, while the inverted density profile due to strong gradient metamorphism observed in arctic snowpacks is not captured by CROCUS. These limitations result partly from the fact that evolution laws were empirically derived from experimental time series covering a limited number of snow evolution scenarios, and whose temporal and spatial resolutions could be enhanced.

X-ray tomography has brought new insights into snow microstructure observation, enabling a quantitative assessment of its variations and a deeper understanding of the physical processes at the micrometer scale. While first measurements were made at room temperature and required to fix the microstructure evolution with impregnation, the use of micro-CT directly inside a cold lab offers the possibility to conduct extensive measurements of snow samples in a cold environment. In this work, we use micro-CT measurements to characterize the temporal evolution of microstructural properties of snow under dry snow metamorphism. To do so, we designed a snow-metamorphism cell to control the temperature at the upper and lower boundaries of a cylindrical snow sample of size 1.8 cm x 2 cm2. This cell can operate directly inside the tomograph and offers the possibility to conduct in-situ monitoring under various experimental conditions. We explored temporal evolutions for different initial snow types, mean temperatures, and temperature gradients ranging from isothermal condition up to 200 K/m. From the micro-CT measurements, we calculate the microstructure properties and analyze their temporal evolution. We also explore the relationships between characteristic lengths, such as ssa, correlation length, mean chord length, and curvature length. In this work, we present the preliminary results from a selection of experiments. The long-term objective is to produce highly resolved time-series with systematic variations of the experimental conditions, and to monitor the evolution of the snow microstructural properties in order to compare them to existing evolution laws and suggest improvements if needed.

How to cite: Dick, O., Calonne, N., Hagenmuller, P., and Laurent, B.: Monitoring dry snow metamorphism from in-situ tomographic measurements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16255, 2025.

In mountains, wind- and gravity-driven transport of snow affects the overall distribution of snow and can have a significant effect on snowmelt dynamics. In the context of the Swiss operational snow melt forecasting, a compromise must be found to enable the representation of such small-scale processes over the entire Swiss Alps while maintaining viable computational costs.

To this end, the snow redistribution modules SNOWTRAN-3D and SnowSlide were implemented and adapted within the FSM2oshd physics-based snow cover model. In an earlier study we showed the added value of snow redistribution representations on a 1180 km2 domain within the Eastern Swiss Alps when running simulations at 25, 50 and 100 m spatial resolutions. Here, we present the challenges and developments that are needed to apply this research model successfully over the whole Swiss Alps at 100 m resolution in an operational setting. In particular, we discuss the following issues:

- The Swiss Alps include very high elevations, with summits above 4000 m.a.s.l. and glaciers. Transport parameters that were shown to be suitable for terrain at 2500 m.a.s.l. are not applicable in more extreme conditions and need diversification.

- Wind fields, although dynamically downscaled, need further post-processing to mitigate biases that became evident in comparison to wind station measurements, particularly on exposed ridges.

- The representation of snow redistribution and of forest snow processes have to be integrated as both types of processes coexist wherever open alpine terrain interfaces with subalpine forest.

- The snow cover fraction scheme has to be adapted to better account for snow transport processes and sub-grid variability in simulations at high spatial resolution.

How to cite: Quéno, L., Jonas, T., Mazzotti, G., and Magnusson, J.: Including snow redistribution in snow hydrology modelling: challenges and developments to make a research model operational at nation-scale , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17090, 2025.

EGU25-17427 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Learning to filter: Snow data assimilation using a Long Short-Term Memory network 

Giulia Blandini, Francesco Avanzi, Lorenzo Campo, Simone Gabellani, Kristoffer Aalstad, Manuela Girotto, Satoru Yamaguchi, Hiroyuki Hirashima, and Luca Ferraris

In snow-dominated regions, today’s snow is tomorrow’s water, making reliable estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth crucial for water resource management. In this context, data assimilation is a powerful tool to optimally combine models and measurements, enhancing accuracy and reliability. Ensemble-based techniques like the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) are often used but their deployment in real-time applications can make it challenging to ensure timely and accurate results. To address these challenges, we propose an innovative data assimilation framework for snow hydrology that leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Using data from seven diverse study sites across the Northern Hemisphere, our framework is trained on the outputs of an EnKF, persuing a balance between computational efficiency and model complexity to advance data assimilation applications in snow hydrology. This LSTM-based framework achieves performance comparable to the EnKF in improving open-loop estimates, with only minor increases in root-mean-square error (RMSE): +6 mm for SWE and +6 cm for snow depth on average. Adding a memory component enhances stability and accuracy, especially under sparse data conditions. When trained on long-term datasets spanning 25 years, the LSTM framework demonstrated promising spatial transferability, with accuracy reductions of less than 20% for snow water equivalent and snow depth estimation. After training, the LSTM approach significantly outperformed a parallelized EnKF in computational efficiency, reducing runtime by 70% while maintaining comparable accuracy. Training on multi-site data further ensured robust performance across diverse climate regimes and during both dry and average water years, with a modest RMSE increase compared to the EnKF (+6 mm for SWE and +18 cm for snow depth). By combining the strengths of traditional ensemble methods and modern machine learning, this framework offers a scalable, computationally efficient, and reliable alternative for operational snow hydrology data assimilation.

 

How to cite: Blandini, G., Avanzi, F., Campo, L., Gabellani, S., Aalstad, K., Girotto, M., Yamaguchi, S., Hirashima, H., and Ferraris, L.: Learning to filter: Snow data assimilation using a Long Short-Term Memory network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17427, 2025.

EGU25-17643 | Orals | CR5.1

Calibrating a compressible firn rheology and application to firn in shear zones 

Aslak Grinsted, Nicholas Mossor Rathmann, and Christine Hvidberg
Most existing firn densification models are one-dimensional and empirical, limiting their ability to accurately represent complex stress regimes. For instance, they fail to account for enhanced densification in shear zones. In contrast, the Gagliardini and Meysonnier 1997 (GM97) model offers a more comprehensive approach by incorporating a compressible firn rheology. This allows modelling densification under arbitrarily complex stress regimes. Unfortunately this model not as constrained empirically, and less practical to implement in a typical one dimensional use case. Here we report on progress on bridging the gap in the firn model hierarchy. How can the GM97 model be reformulated so that it can be used in 1D models, such as the Community Firn Model, while still accounting for horizontal shear? How can we calibrate the model so that it performs as well as simpler models without case by case tuning?

How to cite: Grinsted, A., Rathmann, N. M., and Hvidberg, C.: Calibrating a compressible firn rheology and application to firn in shear zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17643, 2025.

EGU25-18277 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Spatial-variability of snow surface and snowpack properties characterized by near-infrared diffuse reflectance imaging 

Lars Mewes, Valentin Philippe, Martin Schneebeli, Henning Löwe, and Benjamin Walter
Near-infrared diffuse reflectance imaging is well-suited to accurately characterize macro- and microscopic properties of snow.1 The technique's versatility and capability to resolve details down to the millimeter-scale, while simultaneously capturing areas up to a few square-meters, renders it ideal for ground-truth observations of snow surfaces and its stratigraphic structure. Specific surface area, density, as well as liquid water content properties are readily derived from the measured reflectance data using snow-optical theory.2-6
 
We present recent results of surface and snowpack measurements obtained during field-campaigns in the Swiss Alps, the Arctic and the Antarctic, focusing on spatial-variability on the centimeter to meter scale. These insights provide valuable information to established measurement techniques that sample one-dimensional profiles only and thus lack the additional spatial information. Moreover, especially the surface measurements provide small scale details that are averaged-out in remote sensing data from drones, planes and satellites.
 
Using near-infrared diffuse reflectance imaging enables us to observe spatio-temporal variations of snow properties on the centimeter to meter scale, providing important ground-truth observations to better gauge the snow's role within the climate system.
 
1. Matzl, M. & Schneebeli, M., J. Glaciol. 52, 558–564 (2006).
2. Mewes, L. et al., under review.
3. Donahue, C. et al., The Cryosphere 16, 43-59 (2022).
4. Bohren, C. F. & Barkstrom, B. R., J. Geophys. Res. 79, 4527–4535 (1974).
5. Warren, S. G., Rev. Geophys. 20, 67 (1982).
6. Kokhanovsky, A. A. & Zege, E. P., Appl. Opt. 43, 1589 (2004).

How to cite: Mewes, L., Philippe, V., Schneebeli, M., Löwe, H., and Walter, B.: Spatial-variability of snow surface and snowpack properties characterized by near-infrared diffuse reflectance imaging, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18277, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18277, 2025.

The snow depth and the increase of snow depth after three consecutive days of snowfall, hereinafter referred to as ds and DH3gg, respectively, are typically chosen for avalanche protection and avalanche hazard assessment purposes. With specific reference to the Central Apennines (Central Italy), the preferable provider of observations for avalanche related applications is MeteoMont, which supplies ds observations at 34 manual stations, measured between 1978 and 2023. The area of interest is also covered by ERA5-Land, over a period of 73 years, from 1950 to 2023. In terms of temporal, spatial and quantitative availability of snow information, ERA5-Land consists in a more appealing choice as most manual weather stations set up in the Central Apennines are located at lower altitudes compared to where avalanches are likely to occur. Moreover, data recorded at manual stations appears to be incomplete, especially during extreme snowfall events. However, it is necessary to stress that ERA5-Land is affected by biases (e.g. underestimation or overestimation of extremes) and the use of uncorrected data in all applications might lead to unreasonable results. Therefore, in order to overcome the listed limitations, the suggested approach consists in the regionalisation of both ERA5-Land and MeteoMont ds and DH3gg and in the subsequent bias correction and downscaling of the regionalised ERA5-Land variables by means of the regionalised MeteoMont ones. With regards to ERA5-Land, 51 nodes have been considered as their grids intersect recorded and reconstructed avalanche paths in the Abruzzo Region (extracted from the Avalanche Record and the Map of Probabilistic Location of Avalanches provided by the Abruzzo Region). This ensures that the selected nodes are solely representative of areas where avalanches are most likely to occur. The regionalisation of both ERA5-Land and MeteoMont ds and DH3gg is performed by applying the index value regional method before the bias correction and the downscaling of ERA5-Land data as, in terms of computational efforts, only 2 bias corrections and downscalings for each couple of best-matched ERA5-Land and MeteoMont homogeneous areas would be required instead of 102 (2 for each couple of nodes and stations). The bias correction and downscaling of the ERA5-Land regionalised variables are then performed by means of a statistical transformation based on the assumption that said variables are described by one of the distributions belonging to the GEV family. This work is of particular relevance as, on the one hand, it overcomes the limited availability of snow information in the Central Apennines, especially in relation to avalanche related applications. In fact, it provides a tool that quantifies ds and DH3gg quantiles at elevations and sites that are not supplied with observations. On the other hand, it provides realistic initial and boundary conditions for simulating avalanche dynamics, drawing up hazard and risk maps, and designing active and/or passive defence structures. 

How to cite: Fontana, S., Pasquali, D., and Di Risio, M.: Regionalisation, Bias Correction and Downscaling of ERA5-Land Snow Variables by Means of Local Observations Recorded in Central Italy , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19323, 2025.

EGU25-20052 | Posters on site | CR5.1

Snow Microstructure over Antarctic Landfast Ice 

Ruzica Dadic, Julia Martin, Roberta Pirazzini, Brian Anderson, Martin Schneebeli, Matthias Jaggi, Amy Macfarlane, Michael Lehning, Nander Wever, and Petra Heil
Landfast ice plays a significant role in climate and ecosystems in Antarctic coastal regions. From October to December 2022, we investigated the physical properties of snow and sea ice on Antarctic landfast ice in McMurdo Sound, following the protocols from the MSOAiC expedition. Our measurements confirmed some findings from MOSAiC (e.g. the potential mass transfer from the sea ice surface to snow , the high spatial variability of snow depth}, and the discrepancy between meteorological snowfall and snow accumulation),  but we also had observations that were contrasting our MOSAiC data, for example: 1) presence of salt up to 15 cm of snow height (as opposed to MOSAiC's 5 cm for a relatively similar total snow height), 2) the lack of the surface scattering layer on melting sea ice, which caused significantly lower albedos of bare sea ice (0.45, as opposed to MOSAiC's 0.65), 3) average densities of non-melting snow of 450 kg/m3 (as opposed to MOSAIC'S 350 kg/m3 ). Here, we will discuss the microCT measurements from our samples and relate them to the macroscale obervations of parameters like snow density, snow height, snow surface roughness, salinity or stable water isotopes. The main focus in this study in on the prevalance of a prominent depth hoar layer at the snow-ice interface, which we to be caused by the mass transfer between snow and ice because of the large vertical temperature gradients. This is also visible by the microscale roughness of the interface. Additionally, we will discuss the microstructure of the extremely dense wind slab that dominates most of the snow profile and the implications of these findings for modelling and remote sensing of snow on sea ice. 
 
 

How to cite: Dadic, R., Martin, J., Pirazzini, R., Anderson, B., Schneebeli, M., Jaggi, M., Macfarlane, A., Lehning, M., Wever, N., and Heil, P.: Snow Microstructure over Antarctic Landfast Ice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20052, 2025.

EGU25-21697 | ECS | Posters on site | CR5.1

Firn densification across the Greenland Ice Sheet from the IMAU-FDM (1940-2023) 

Elizabeth Case, Peter Kuipers-Munneke, Max Brils, Willem-Jan van de Berg, Carleen Tijm-Reijmer, and Michiel van den Broeke

The IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) is a 1D, semi-empirical model that simulates the evolution of snow grain size, firn density, firn air content, temperature, and liquid water content. It has been used primarily to investigate future surface changes over both Greenland and Antarctica, as well as for continent-wide estimates of mass change from satellite altimetry. Here, we will present a streamlined, updated IMAU-FDM with results for the Greenland Ice Sheet extended back to 1940 and through to 2023. IMAU-FDM is driven by ERA5, dynamically downscaled by the regional climate model RACMO 2.3p2 to 5.5 km^2 resolution. We will present timeseries of firn air content, liquid water content, and ice slab presence across the Greenland Ice Sheet, and initial results of future runs through 2100.

How to cite: Case, E., Kuipers-Munneke, P., Brils, M., van de Berg, W.-J., Tijm-Reijmer, C., and van den Broeke, M.: Firn densification across the Greenland Ice Sheet from the IMAU-FDM (1940-2023), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21697, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21697, 2025.

EGU25-1511 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.3

A workflow for cloud-based and HPC simulations with the NEMO ocean model using containers 

Aina Gaya-Àvila, Bruno de Paula Kinoshita, Stella V. Paronuzzi Ticco, Oriol Tintó Prims, and Miguel Castrillo

In this work, we explored the deployment and execution of the NEMO ocean model using Singularity containers within the EDITO Model Lab, implementing the European Digital Twin of the Ocean. The Auto-NEMO workflow, a fork of Auto-EC-Earth used to run NEMO workflows using the NEMO Community reference code, was adapted to run simulations using containers. The use of a Singularity container ensures consistent execution by packaging all dependencies, making it easier to deploy the model across various HPC systems.

The containerized approach was tested on multiple HPC platforms, including MareNostrum5 and LUMI, to evaluate scaling performance. Our tests compared the use of mpich and openmp libraries, providing insights into how communication strategies impact the computational performance of the model in containerized setups. In addition, the runs are orchestrated by a content workflow manager, in this case Autosubmit, deployed in a cloud infrastructure in EDITO-Infra, making the entire solution (workflow manager and workflow itself) portable end-to-end. The benefits of portability and reproducibility make containers an attractive solution for streamlining workflows in diverse computational environments.

A comparison between containerized and non-containerized runs highlights the trade-offs involved. Direct execution may provide slightly better performance in some cases, but the containerized approach greatly reduces setup complexity. These findings demonstrate the potential of containerization to enhance efficiency and accessibility in large-scale ocean modeling efforts.

How to cite: Gaya-Àvila, A., de Paula Kinoshita, B., Paronuzzi Ticco, S. V., Tintó Prims, O., and Castrillo, M.: A workflow for cloud-based and HPC simulations with the NEMO ocean model using containers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1511, 2025.

EGU25-2142 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Enhancing Data Provenance in Workflow Management: Integrating FAIR Principles into Autosubmit and SUNSET 

Albert Puiggros, Miguel Castrillo, Bruno de Paula Kinoshita, Pierre-Antoine Bretonniere, and Victòria Agudetse

Ensuring robust data provenance is paramount for advancing transparency, traceability, and reproducibility in climate research. This work presents the integration of FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles into the workflow management ecosystem through provenance integration in Autosubmit, a workflow manager developed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), and SUNSET (SUbseasoNal to decadal climate forecast post-processing and asSEmenT suite), an R-based verification workflow also developed at the BSC.

Autosubmit supports the generation of data provenance information based on RO-Crate, facilitating the creation of machine-actionable digital objects that encapsulate detailed metadata about its executions. Autosubmit integrates persistent identifiers (PIDs) and schema.org annotations, making provenance records more accessible and actionable for both humans and machines.  However, the provenance metadata provided by Autosubmit through RO-Crate focuses on the workflow process and does not encapsulate the details of the data transformation processes. This is where SUNSET plays a complementary role. SUNSET’s approach for provenance information is based on the METACLIP (METAdata for CLImate Products) ontologies. METACLIP offers a semantic approach for describing climate products and their provenance. This framework enables SUNSET to provide specific, high-resolution  provenance metadata for its operations, improving transparency and compliance with FAIR principles. The generated files provide detailed information about each transformation the data has undergone, as well as additional details about the data's state, location, structure, and associated source code, all represented in a tree-like structure.

The main contribution of this work is the generation of a comprehensive provenance object by integrating these tools. SUNSET uses Autosubmit to parallelize its data processing tasks, with Autosubmit managing SUNSET jobs. As part of this process, an RO-Crate is automatically generated describing the overall execution. This object encapsulates detailed provenance metadata for each individual job within the workflow, using METACLIP's semantic framework to represent each SUNSET execution process. Certain schema.org entities are introduced to have the RO-Crate created by Autosubmit link with the provenance details generated by SUNSET. This integrated approach provides a unified hierarchical provenance record that spans to both the workflow management system and the individual job executions, ensuring that provenance objects are automatically generated for each experiment conducted.

This work demonstrates the practical application of FAIR principles in climate research by advancing provenance tracking within complex workflows. It represents an initial step to obtain and share metadata about the provenance of the data products that a workflow provides. The integration of RO-Crate and METACLIP not only enhances the reproducibility of climate data products but also fosters greater confidence in their reliability. To our knowledge, this is the first effort in the climate domain to combine different provenance formats into a single object, aiming to obtain a complete provenance graph with all the metadata. 

How to cite: Puiggros, A., Castrillo, M., de Paula Kinoshita, B., Bretonniere, P.-A., and Agudetse, V.: Enhancing Data Provenance in Workflow Management: Integrating FAIR Principles into Autosubmit and SUNSET, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2142, 2025.

EGU25-4355 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Generic State Vector: streaming and accessing high resolution climate data from models to end users 

Iker Gonzalez-Yeregi, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Aina Gaya-Avila, and Francesc Roura-Adserias

The Climate Adaptation Digital Twin (ClimateDT) is a contract under the Destination Earth initiative (DestinE) that aims to develop a digital twin to account for climate change adaptation. This is achieved by running high-resolution simulations with different climate models by making use of the different EuroHPC platforms. In addition to the climate models, applications that consume data from models are also developed under the contract. A common workflow is used to execute the whole pipeline from the model launching to the data consumption by the applications in a user-friendly and automated way.

One of the challenges of this complex workflow is to handle the different outputs that each of the climate models initially offered. Each model works with its own grid, vertical levels, and variable set. These differences in format make it very complicated for applications to consume and compare data coming from different models in an automated and timely manner. This issue is resolved by introducing the concept of Generic State Vector (GSV), which defines a common output portfolio for all models to ensure a homogeneous output between models. The conversion from the model's native output to the GSV happens before the data is written in the HPC and it is automated in the workflow allowing transparent access to the data changing only the name of the model in the call.

Data in the GSV format can be read using a newly designed dedicated Python tool: the GSV Interface. This tool links the model part of the workflow with the applications part of the workflow, enabling running everything in a single complex workflow (end-to-end workflow). The GSV Interface allows to read data that has been previously converted to GSV, adding proper metadata. It also offers some extra features like interpolation to regular grids and area selection. All the workflow components that read data from the models rely on the GSV Interface. In addition to that, the GSV Interface can also be used to transparently retrieve and process data from the public Destination Earth Service Platform.

How to cite: Gonzalez-Yeregi, I., Bretonnière, P.-A., Gaya-Avila, A., and Roura-Adserias, F.: Generic State Vector: streaming and accessing high resolution climate data from models to end users, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4355, 2025.

EGU25-4466 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

ClimateDT Workflow: A containerized climate workflow 

Francesc Roura-Adserias, Aina Gaya-Avila, Leo Arriola i Meikle, Iker Gonzalez-Yeregi, Bruno De Paula Kinoshita, Jaan Tollander de Balsch, and Miguel Castrillo

The Climate Adaptation Digital Twin (ClimateDT), a contract (DE_340) inside the Destination Earth (DestinE) flagship initiative from the European Commission, is a highly collaborative project where climate models are executed in an operational manner on different EuroHPC platforms. The workflow software supporting such executions, called ClimateDT Workflow, contains a model component and an applications component. The applications can be seen as elements that consume the data that is provided by the climate models. They aim to provide climate information to sectors that are critically dependent on climate change, such as renewable energy or wildfires, among others. This workflow relies on the Autosubmit workflow manager and is executed over different EuroHPC platforms that are part of the contract.

There are six lightweight applications that are run in this workflow, in parallel to the model and in a streaming fashion. Setting up and maintaining an environment for these applications for each EuroHPC platform (plus the development environments) is a time-consuming and cumbersome task. These machines are shared by multiple users, have different operating systems and libraries, some do not have internet access for all users on their login nodes, and there are different rules to install and maintain software on each machine.

In order to overcome these difficulties all the application-required dependencies of the workflow are encapsulated beforehand in a Singularity container and therefore the portability to the different platforms becomes merely an issue with path-binding inside the platform. Through the use of Singularity containers, their execution does not require administrator permissions, which allows anyone with access to the project to execute the desired application either on the EuroHPC machines, or on their local development environment.

This work shows the structure of the ClimateDT workflow and how it uses Singularity containers, how they contribute not only to portability but also to traceability and provenance, and finally the benefits and issues found during its implementation. We believe that the successful use of containers in this climate workflow, where applications run in parallel to the climate models in a streaming fashion and where the complete workflow runs on different HPC platforms, presents a good reference for other projects and workflows that must be platform-agnostic and that require agile portability of their components.

How to cite: Roura-Adserias, F., Gaya-Avila, A., Arriola i Meikle, L., Gonzalez-Yeregi, I., De Paula Kinoshita, B., Tollander de Balsch, J., and Castrillo, M.: ClimateDT Workflow: A containerized climate workflow, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4466, 2025.

In an era of unprecedented availability of Earth Observation (EO) data, the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (CDSE) emerges as a vital platform to bridge the gap between data accessibility and actionable insights. With petabytes of freely accessible satellite data at our fingertips and multiple operational data processing platforms in place, many of the foundational challenges of accessing and processing sensor data have been addressed. Yet, the widespread adoption of EO-based applications remains below expectations. The challenge lies in the effective extraction of relevant information from the data. While numerous R&D projects demonstrate the possibilities of EO, their results are often neither repeatable nor reusable, primarily due to prototype-level implementations and overly tailored, non-standardized workflows.  

CDSE tackles these barriers by adopting common standards and patterns, most notably through openEO, an interface designed to standardize EO workflow execution across platforms. openEO enables the development of reusable workflows that are scalable and transferable, paving the way for systematic and objective monitoring of the planet. CDSE has already integrated openEO as a core processing interface, and further advancements are underway, including the integration of Sentinel Hub to support openEO. This integration will enhance instantaneous visualization, synchronous API requests, and batch processing, as well as support openEO process graphs within the Copernicus Browser, bringing the simplicity and speed of Sentinel Hub’s synchronous engine to the openEO ecosystem.  

CDSE’s openEO capabilities are already validated through large-scale operational projects such as ESA WorldCereal and Copernicus Global Land Cover and Tropical Forestry Mapping and Monitoring Service (LCFM), which leverage its robust, scalable, and reliable infrastructure. Additionally, the openEO Algorithm Plaza fosters collaboration by enabling the easy sharing and reuse of processing workflows, while the Bring Your Own Data feature allows users to integrate their datasets into the ecosystem, promoting data interoperability and collaborative advancements.  

CDSE is embracing a federated approach, allowing additional data or service providers to become part of the ecosystem. This inclusivity ensures a growing network of interoperable services while maintaining technical and operational stability—a cornerstone for broad adoption and long-term sustainability.  

By addressing the need for operational and reusable workflows with openEO and related initiatives, CDSE is not only advancing the technical landscape of EO but also fostering a culture of repeatable, scalable, and impactful science. Through this session, we aim to spark a discussion on how to make EO applications more accessible, reusable, and impactful for the global community.

How to cite: Sharma, P.: How openEO standardizes workflows for scalable and reusable EO data analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5593, 2025.

EGU25-6201 | Orals | ESSI3.3

Advancing Computational Workflow Sharing in Earth Science: Insights from DT-GEO and Geo-INQUIRE 

Marco Salvi, Rossana Paciello, Valerio Vinciarelli, Kety Giuliacci, Daniele Bailo, Pablo Orviz, Keith Jeffery, Manuela Volpe, Roberto Tonini, and Alejandra Guerrero

The increasing complexity and volume of data in Solid Earth Science necessitate robust solutions for workflow representation, sharing, and reproducibility. Within the DT-GEO (https://dtgeo.eu/) project, we addressed the challenge of creating interoperable and discoverable representations of computational workflows to facilitate data reuse and collaboration. Leveraging the EPOS Platform (https://www.epos-eu.org/), a multidisciplinary research infrastructure focused on Solid Earth Science, we aimed to expose workflows, datasets, and software to the community while adhering to the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) principles. While the EPOS-DCAT-AP (https://github.com/epos-eu/EPOS-DCAT-AP) model, already used in EPOS, can effectively represent datasets and software, it lacks direct support for computational workflows, necessitating the adoption of alternative standards.

To overcome this limitation, we employed the Common Workflow Language (CWL, https://www.commonwl.org/) to describe workflows, capturing their structure, software, datasets, and dependencies. The developed CWL representations are "abstract" focusing on general workflow structures while omitting execution-specific details to prioritize interoperability. To package these workflows along with metadata, we utilized Workflow Run Crate, an extension of the RO-Crate (https://www.researchobject.org/ro-crate/) standard. Together, these technologies enable workflows to become self-contained entities, simplifying sharing and reuse. 

This approach not only aligns with community standards but also benefits from a mature ecosystem of tools and libraries, ensuring seamless integration and widespread applicability. Initial implementations within the DT-GEO project serve as a model for adoption in related initiatives such as Geo-INQUIRE (https://www.geo-inquire.eu/), where similar methodologies are being used to share workflows derived from the Simulation Data Lake (SDL) infrastructure. These implementations pave the way for broader integration within the EPOS Platform, enhancing access to advanced workflows across disciplines.

Our contribution highlights the value of adopting standardized tools and methodologies for workflow management in Solid Earth Science, showcasing how CWL and RO-Crate streamline interoperability and foster collaboration. These advances address challenges in data and computational management, contributing to the scalable FAIR workflows essential for tackling the complexities of Solid Earth Science. Moving forward, the integration of these standards across projects like DT-GEO and Geo-INQUIRE will further enhance the EPOS Platform's capabilities, offering a unified gateway to reproducible, secure, and trustworthy workflows that meet the evolving needs of the scientific community.

How to cite: Salvi, M., Paciello, R., Vinciarelli, V., Giuliacci, K., Bailo, D., Orviz, P., Jeffery, K., Volpe, M., Tonini, R., and Guerrero, A.: Advancing Computational Workflow Sharing in Earth Science: Insights from DT-GEO and Geo-INQUIRE, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6201, 2025.

EGU25-6216 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

CAMELS-PLUS: Enhancing Hydrological Data Through FAIR Innovations. 

Carlos Zuleta Salmon, Mirko Mälicke, and Alexander Dölich

The CAMELS-PLUS initiative is revolutionizing the way hydrological, and Earth System Science (ESS) data are processed, shared, and utilized by enhancing the widely-used CAMELS-DE dataset. While Germany boasts one of the richest hydrological datasets globally, CAMELS-DE has faced challenges due to its reliance on fragmented, manual workflows, which are error-prone and hinder collaboration. CAMELS-PLUS introduces a groundbreaking solution: a standardized framework for containerized scientific tools that embed rich metadata, ensuring provenance, reusability, and seamless integration across diverse scientific domains.

A key innovation of CAMELS-PLUS lies in its ability to bridge the gap between disciplines by implementing a fully containerized pipeline for dataset pre-processing. This approach allows researchers in meteorology, forestry, and other ESS subdomains to easily contribute and extend CAMELS-DE without the complexity of navigating storage systems or inconsistent workflows. The initiative’s metadata schema, implemented as YAML files with JSON-based tool parameterization, enables tools to "speak the same language," ensuring they are interoperable and aligned with FAIR principles.

Key Deliverables:

  • Updated CAMELS-DE Dataset: Incorporates new precipitation sources and enhanced metadata for seamless integration with the NFDI4Earth Knowledge Hub.
  • Standardized Scientific Containers: A community-adopted specification for containerized tools, promoting accessibility and reusability across disciplines.
  • Interactive Community Engagement: Extensions to camels-de.org, transforming it into a hub for exploring workflows and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration.

What makes CAMELS-PLUS particularly compelling is its potential to democratize access to cutting-edge hydrological datasets. By enabling non-specialists to contribute and utilize CAMELS-DE through intuitive, containerized workflows, the initiative reduces barriers to entry and accelerates innovation in data-driven hydrology and beyond. This project not only sets a new standard for dataset management in ESS but also creates a replicable model for tackling similar challenges across other scientific domains. CAMELS-PLUS is poised to inspire transformative changes in how large-sample datasets are curated, shared, and advanced for global scientific impact.

How to cite: Zuleta Salmon, C., Mälicke, M., and Dölich, A.: CAMELS-PLUS: Enhancing Hydrological Data Through FAIR Innovations., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6216, 2025.

EGU25-6544 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

PyActiveStorage:  Efficient distributed data analysis using Active Storage for HDF5/NetCDF4 

Bryan N. Lawrence, David Hassell, Grenville Lister, Predoi Valeriu, Scott Davidson, Mark Goddard, Matt Pryor, Stig Telfer, Konstantinos Chasapis, and Jean-Thomas Acquaviva

Active storage (also known as computational storage) has been a concept often proposed but not often delivered. The idea is that there is a lot of under-utilised compute power in modern storage systems, and this could be utilised to carry out some parts of data analysis workflows. Such a facillity would reduce the cost of moving data, and make distributed data analysis much more efficient.

For storage to be able to handle compute, either an entire compute stack has to be migrated to the storage (with all the problems around security and dependencies) or the storage has to offer suitable compute interfaces. Here we take the second approach, borrowing the concept of providing system reduction operations in the MPI interface of HPC systems, to define and implement a reduction interface for the complex layout of HDF5 (and NetCDF4) data.

We demonstrate a near-production quality deployment of the technology (PyActiveStorage) fronting JASMIN object storage, and describe how we have built a POSIX prototype. The first provides compute “near” the storage, the second is truly “in” the storage. The performance with the object store is such that for some tasks distributed workflows based on reduction operations on HDF5 data can be competitive with local workflow speeds, a result which has significant implications for avoiding expensive copies of data and unnecessary data movement. As a byproduct of this work, we have also upgraded a pre-existing pure python HDF5 reader to support lazy access, which opens up threadsafe read operations on suitable HDF5 and NetCDF4 data.

To our knowledge, there has previously been no previous practical demonstration of active storage for scientific data held in HDF5 files. While we have developed this technology with application in distributed weather and climate workflows, we believe it will find utility in a wide range of scientific workflows.

How to cite: Lawrence, B. N., Hassell, D., Lister, G., Valeriu, P., Davidson, S., Goddard, M., Pryor, M., Telfer, S., Chasapis, K., and Acquaviva, J.-T.: PyActiveStorage:  Efficient distributed data analysis using Active Storage for HDF5/NetCDF4, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6544, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6544, 2025.

EGU25-7056 | Orals | ESSI3.3

Reliable and reproducible Earth System Model data analysis with ESMValTool 

Valeriu Predoi and Bouwe Andela

ESMValTool is a software tool for analyzing data produced by Earth System Models (ESMs) in a reliable and reproducible way. It provides a large and diverse collection of “recipes” that reproduce standard, as well as state-of-the-art analyses. ESMValTool can be used for tasks ranging from monitoring continuously running ESM simulations to analysis for scientific publications such as the IPCC reports, including reproducing results from previously published scientific articles as well as allowing scientists to produce new analysis results. To make ESMValTool a user-friendly community tool suitable for doing open science, it adheres to the FAIR principles for research software. It is: - Findable - it is published in community registries, such as https://research-software-directory.org/software/esmvaltool; - Accessible - it can be installed from Python package community distribution channels such as conda-forge, and the open-source code is available on Zenodo with a DOI, and on GitHub; - Interoperable - it is based on standards: it works with data that follows CF Conventions and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Data Request, its reusable recipes are written in YAML, and provenance is recorded in the W3C PROV format. It supports diagnostics written in a number of programming language, with Python and R being best supported. Its source code follows the standards and best practices for the respective programming languages; - Reusable - it provides a well documented recipe format and Python API that allow reusing previous analyses and building new analysis with previously developed components. Also, the software can be installed from conda-forge and DockerHub and can be tailored by installing from source from GitHub. In terms of input data, ESMValTool integrates well with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure. It can find, download and access data from across the federation, and has access to large pools of observational datasets. ESMValTool is built around two key scientific software metrics: scalability and user friendliness. An important aspect of user friendliness is reliability. ESMValTool is built on top of the Dask library to allow scalable and distributed computing, ESMValTool also uses parallelism at a higher level in the stack, so that jobs can be distributed on any standard High Performance Computing (HPC) facility; and software reliability and reproducibility - our main strategy to ensure reliability is modular, integrated, and tested design. This comes back at various levels of the tool. We try to separate commonly used functionality from “one off” code, and make sure that commonly used functionality is covered by unit and integration tests, while we rely on regression testing for everything else. We also use comprehensive end-to-end testing for all our “recipes” before we release new versions. Our testing infrastructure ranges from basic unit tests to tools that smartly handle various file formats, and use image comparison algorithms to compare figures. This greatly reduces the need for ‘human testing’, allowing for built-in robustness through modularity, and a testing strategy that has been tailored to match the technical skills of its contributors.

How to cite: Predoi, V. and Andela, B.: Reliable and reproducible Earth System Model data analysis with ESMValTool, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7056, 2025.

EGU25-7070 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

EarthCODE - a FAIR and Open Environment for collaborative research in Earth System Science  

Chandra Taposeea-Fisher, Garin Smith, Ewelina Dobrowolska, Daniele Giomo, Francesco Barchetta, Stephan Meißl, and Dean Summers

The Open Science and Innovation Vision included in ESA’s EO Science Strategy (2024) addresses 8 key elements: 1) openness of research data, 2) open-source scientific code, 3) open access papers with data and code; 4) standards-based publication and discovery of scientific experiments, 5) scientific workflows reproducible on various infrastructures, 6) access to education on open science, 7) community practice of open science; and 8) EO business models built on open-source. EarthCODE (https://earthcode.esa.int) is a strategic ESA EO initiative to support the implementation of this vision. 

EarthCODE (Earth Science Collaborative Open Development Environment) will form part of the next generation of cloud-based geospatial services, aiming towards an integrated, cloud-based, user-centric development environment for European Space Agency’s (ESA) Earth science activities. EarthCODE looks to maximise long-term visibility, reuse and reproducibility of the research outputs of such projects, by leveraging FAIR and open science principles and enabling, thus fostering a sustainable scientific process. EarthCODE proposes a flexible and scalable architecture developed with interoperable open-source blocks, with a long-term vision evolving by incrementally integrating industrially provided services from a portfolio of the Network of Resources.  Additionally, EarthCODE is a utilisation domain of EOEPCA+, contributing to the development and evolution of Open Standards and protocols, enabling internationally interoperable solutions.  

EarthCODE will provide an Integrated Development Platform, giving developers tools needed to develop high quality workflows, allowing experiments to be executed in the cloud and be end-to-end reproduced by other scientists. EarthCODE is built around existing open-source solutions, building blocks and platforms, such as the Open Science Catalogue, EOxHub and EOEPCA. It has additionally begun to integrate platform services from DeepESDL, Euro Data Cube, Polar TEP and the openEO federation on CDSE platforms, with more being added annually through ESA best practices. With it’s adopted federated approach, EarthCODE will facilitate processing on other platforms, i.e. DeepESDL, ESA EURO Data Cube, Open EO Cloud/Open EO Platform and AIOPEN/AI4DTE.   

The roadmap for the portal includes the initial portal release by end of 2024, followed by the capability to publish experiments in Q1 2025 (including development, publishing, finding and related community engagement), and by mid-2025 to have a further release with reproducibility capabilities around accessibility and execute functionalities.  

Collaboration and Federation are at the heart of EarthCODE. As EarthCODE evolves we expect providing solutions allowing federation of data and processing. EarthCODE has ambition to deliver a model for a Collaborative Open Development Environment for Earth system science, where researchers can leverage the power of the wide range of EO platform services available to conduct their science, while also making use of FAIR Open Science tools to manage data, code and documentation, create end-to-end reproducible workflows on platforms, and have the opportunity to discover, use, reuse, modify and build upon the research of others in a fair and safe way. Overall, EarthCODE aims to enable elements for EO Open Science and Innovation vision, including open data, open-source code, linked data/code, open-access documentation, end-to-end reproducible workflows, open-science resources, open-science tools, and a healthy community applying all the elements in their practice.

How to cite: Taposeea-Fisher, C., Smith, G., Dobrowolska, E., Giomo, D., Barchetta, F., Meißl, S., and Summers, D.: EarthCODE - a FAIR and Open Environment for collaborative research in Earth System Science , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7070, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7070, 2025.

EGU25-8114 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.3

Flexible and scalable workflow framework HydroFlows for compound flood risk assessment and adaptation modelling 

Willem Tromp, Dirk Eilander, Hessel Winsemius, Tjalling De Jong, Brendan Dalmijn, Hans Gehrels, and Bjorn Backeberg

Flood risk assessments are increasingly guiding urban developments to safeguard against flooding. These assessments, consisting mainly of hazard and risk maps, make use of interconnected models consisting of a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic, and impact models, which are increasingly run interactively to support scenario modelling and decision-making in digital twins. To maintain interoperability, transparency, and reusability of this chain and the assessments themselves, using a workflow manager to manage the inter-model dependencies is a natural fit. However, composing and maintaining workflows is a non-trivial, time-consuming task, and they often have to be refactored for new workflow engines, or when changing compute environments, even if the workflow conceptually remains unchanged. These issues are particularly relevant in the development of digital twins for climate adaptation, where flood risk assessments serve as input to indicate high-risk areas. The complex model chain underpinning such digital twins can benefit greatly from transparent workflows that can be easily reused across different contexts.

To address these challenges, we developed the HydroFlows Python framework for composing and maintaining flood risk assessment workflows by leveraging common patterns identified across different workflows. The framework allows users to use one of the many steps available in the library or define workflow steps themselves and combine these into complete workflows which are validated on the fly. Available workflow steps include building, running, and postprocessing of models. Execution of the workflow is handled by one of the workflow managers to which our workflow description can be exported, such as Snakemake or tools with CWL support. This flexibility allows users to easily scale their workflows to different compute environments whenever the computational requirements demand so.

We demonstrate the flexibility of the HydroFlows framework by highlighting how it can be used to create complex workflows needed for digital twins supporting climate adaptation. HydroFlows not only enhances the flexibility and portability of the digital twin modelling workflows but also facilitates the integration of digital twin tooling and advanced computing and processing solutions to support interactive flood risk assessments in federated compute and data environments.

How to cite: Tromp, W., Eilander, D., Winsemius, H., De Jong, T., Dalmijn, B., Gehrels, H., and Backeberg, B.: Flexible and scalable workflow framework HydroFlows for compound flood risk assessment and adaptation modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8114, 2025.

EGU25-8305 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Enabling reliable workflow development with an advanced Testing Suite 

Alejandro Garcia Lopez, Leo Arriola Meikle, Gilbert Montane Pinto, Miguel Castrillo, Bruno de Paula Kinoshita, Eric Ferrer Escuin, and Aina Gaya Avila

Climate simulations require complex workflows that often integrate multiple components and different configurations per experiment, typically involving high-performance computing resources. The exhaustive testing required for these workflows can be time and resource consuming, presenting significant challenges in terms of computational cost and human effort. However, robust Continuous Integration (CI) testing ensures the reliability and reproducibility of such complex workflows by validating the codebase and ensuring the integrity of all the components used when performing climate simulations. Additionally, CI testing facilitates both major and minor releases, enhancing the efficiency of the development lifecycle.

To address these challenges, we present our Testing Suite software, designed to automate the setup, configuration, and execution of integration tests using Autosubmit, a workflow manager developed at the BSC. Autosubmit is typically used for climate modelling experiments, but also atmospheric composition ones, and also constitutes the backbone of some operational systems and Digital Twin initiatives. The Testing Suite software allows Autosubmit commands to be executed in batches and the responses from the Workflow Manager to be bypassed in a structured manner. By streamlining this process, it minimizes the effort required for exhaustive testing while ensuring reliability.

Beyond integration testing, the Testing Suite offers advanced capabilities for scientific result verification. By automatically comparing output data bit by bit, it swiftly detects regressions during test execution. Additionally, it provides CPMIP performance metrics, offering insights into the efficiency of the workflows.

As a result, the Testing Suite plays an important role in quality assurance, particularly during releases, where extensive testing ensures the workflow meets required functionality and performance standards across different configurations. These integration tests act as a checkpoint, validating the stability and robustness of the software before release. They also identify stable points in the main codebase, enabling developers to create new branches with confidence. This approach minimizes compatibility issues and facilitates a smoother development process.

In conclusion, the Testing Suite is a crucial part of the development lifecycle for climate simulations. It mitigates risks, ensures stability, and fosters innovation, all while maintaining a robust and reliable foundation for scientific research and development.

How to cite: Garcia Lopez, A., Arriola Meikle, L., Montane Pinto, G., Castrillo, M., de Paula Kinoshita, B., Ferrer Escuin, E., and Gaya Avila, A.: Enabling reliable workflow development with an advanced Testing Suite, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8305, 2025.

EGU25-8621 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Auto-EC-Earth: An automatic workflow to manage climate modelling experiments using Autosubmit 

Eric Ferrer, Gilbert Montane, Miguel Castrillo, and Alejandro Garcia

The European community Earth system model EC-Earth is based on different and interoperable climate components simulating different processes of the Earth system. This makes it a complex model that requires multiple input data sources for its various model components, which can be run in parallel with multiple configurations and resolutions, demanding different computational resources in each case.

The EC-Earth software contains a minimum set of scripts to manage the compilation and execution of the simulations, but these are not enough to perform all the tasks that experiments demand nor to guarantee the traceability and reproducibility of the entire workflow in a high-productivity scientific environment. For that matter, the Auto-EC-Earth software has been developed at the Earth Sciences department of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-ES) relying on Autosubmit, a workflow manager also developed at BSC-ES.

We take advantage of the automatization provided by the workflow manager that allows us to configure, manage, orchestrate and share experiments with different configurations and target platforms. The workflow manager allows the user to split the run into different tasks that are executed on different local and remote machines, like the HPC platform where the simulation needs to be performed. This is achieved in a seamless integration between Autosubmit, the EC-Earth tools, and the different machines where the scripts run, all without any user-input required after the initial setup and the launch of the experiment thanks to the workflow developments. Autosubmit also allows to ensure traceability of the actual runs, to have all the required data available for different kinds of experiments separated and well documented.

However, running the main part of the simulation is a cooperative task between the Autosubmit workflow manager and the different tools used for each model version. Auto-EC-Earth workflow has evolved to adapt the best possible to the EC-Earth model scripts that are present to help with the model runs. In EC-Earth 4, ScriptEngine is used to manage the run, and it has been fully integrated into the Auto-EC-Earth 4 workflow and used to set up the environment, while Autosubmit still manages the submission of jobs to the HPC and the dependencies between them.

Auto-EC-Earth is a great example of a workflow system that has been developed and used throughout the years, well established within the BSC-ES and used in multiple production cases, like multiple CMIP exercises as well as a reference for newer ESM workflows like the one developed in the Destination Earth project. It has also allowed the BSC-ES to collaborate with the EC-Earth community through the testing of the new releases of the model.

How to cite: Ferrer, E., Montane, G., Castrillo, M., and Garcia, A.: Auto-EC-Earth: An automatic workflow to manage climate modelling experiments using Autosubmit, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8621, 2025.

EGU25-9175 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Enhancing Earth system models efficiency: Leveraging the Automatic Performance Profiling tool 

Roc Salvador Andreazini, Xavier Yepes Arbós, Stella Valentina Paronuzzi Ticco, Oriol Tintó Prims, and Mario Acosta Cobos

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential to understand and predict climate variability and change. However, their complexity and computational demands of high-resolution simulations often lead to performance bottlenecks that can impede research progress. Identifying and resolving these inefficiencies typically require significant expertise and manual effort, posing challenges for both climate scientists and High Performance Computing (HPC) engineers.

We propose automating performance profiling as a solution to help researchers concentrate on improving and optimizing their models without the complexities of manual profiling. The Automatic Performance Profiling (APP) tool brings this solution to life by streamlining the generation of detailed performance reports for climate models.

The tool ranges from high-level performance metrics, such as Simulated Years Per Day (SYPD), to low-level metrics, such as PAPI counters and MPI communication statistics. This dual-level reporting makes the tool accessible to a wide range of users, from climate scientists seeking a general understanding of the model efficiency, to HPC experts requiring granular insights for advanced optimizations.

Seamlessly integrated with Autosubmit, the workflow manager developed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), APP ensures compatibility with complex climate modelling workflows. By automating the collection and reporting of key metrics, APP reduces the effort and expertise needed for performance profiling, empowering users to enhance the scalability and efficiency of their climate models.

APP currently supports multiple models, including the EC-Earth4 climate model and the NEMO ocean model, and is compatible with different HPC systems, such as Marenostrum 5 and ECMWF’s supercomputer. Furthermore, the modular design of the tool allows adding new models and HPC platforms easily.

How to cite: Salvador Andreazini, R., Yepes Arbós, X., Paronuzzi Ticco, S. V., Tintó Prims, O., and Acosta Cobos, M.: Enhancing Earth system models efficiency: Leveraging the Automatic Performance Profiling tool, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9175, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9175, 2025.

Geo-simulation experiments (GSEs) are experiments allowing the simulation and exploration of Earth’s surface (such as hydrological, geomorphological, atmospheric, biological, and social processes and their interactions) with the usage of geo-analysis models (hereafter called ‘models’). Computational processes represent the steps in GSEs where researchers employ these models to analyze data by computer, encompassing a suite of actions carried out by researchers. These processes form the crux of GSEs, as GSEs are ultimately implemented through the execution of computational processes. Recent advancements in computer technology have facilitated sharing models online to promote resource accessibility and environmental dependency rebuilding, the lack of which are two fundamental barriers to reproduction. In particular, the trend of encapsulating models as web services online is gaining traction. While such service-oriented strategies aid in the reproduction of computational processes, they often ignore the association and interaction among researchers’ actions regarding the usage of sequential resources (model-service resources and data resources); documenting these actions can help clarify the exact order and details of resource usage. Inspired by these strategies, this study explores the organization of computational processes, which can be extracted with a collection of action nodes and related logical links (node-link ensembles). The action nodes are the abstraction of the interactions between participant entities and resource elements (i.e., model-service resource elements and data resource elements), while logical links represent the logical relationships between action nodes. In addition, the representation of actions, the formation of documentation, and the reimplementation of documentation are interconnected stages in this approach. Specifically, the accurate representation of actions facilitates the correct performance of these actions; therefore, the operation of actions can be documented in a standard way, which is crucial for the successful reproduction of computational processes based on standardized documentation. Aprototype system is designed to demonstrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed approach. By employing this pragmatic approach, researchers can share their computational processes in a structured and open format, allowing peer scientists to re-execute operations with initial resources and reimplement the initial computational processes of GSEs via the open web.

How to cite: Zhu, Z. and Chen, M.: Reproducing computational processes in service-based geo-simulation experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9791, 2025.

EGU25-10981 | Orals | ESSI3.3

yProv: a Software Ecosystem for Multi-level Provenance Management and Exploration in Climate Workflows 

Fabrizio Antonio, Gabriele Padovani, Ludovica Sacco, Carolina Sopranzetti, Marco Robol, Konstantinos Zefkilis, Nicola Marchioro, and Sandro Fiore

Scientific workflows and provenance are two faces of the same medal. While the former addresses the coordinated execution of multiple tasks over a set of computational resources, the latter relates to the historical record of data from its original sources. As experiments rapidly evolve towards complex end-to-end workflows, handling provenance at different levels of granularity and during the entire analytics workflow lifecycle is key for managing lineage information related to large-scale experiments in a flexible way as well as enabling reproducibility scenarios, thus playing a relevant role in Open Science.

The contribution highlights the importance of tracking multi-level provenance metadata in complex, AI-based scientific workflows as a way to foster documentation of data and experiments in a standardized format, strengthen interpretability, trustworthiness and authenticity of the results, facilitate performance diagnosis and troubleshooting activities, and advance provenance exploration. More specifically, the contribution introduces yProv, a joint research effort between CMCC and University of Trento targeting multi-level provenance management in complex, AI-based scientific workflows. The yProv project provides a rich software ecosystem consisting of a web service (yProv service) to store and manage provenance documents compliant with the W3C PROV family of standards, two libraries to track provenance in scientific workflows at different levels of granularity with a focus on AI models training (yProv4WFs and yProv4ML), and a data science tool for provenance inspection, navigation, visualization, and analysis (yProv Explorer). Activity on trustworthy provenance with yProv is also ongoing to fully address end-to-end provenance management requirements.

The contribution will cover the presentation of the yProv software ecosystem and use cases from the interTwin (https://www.intertwin.eu/) and ClimateEurope2 (https://climateurope2.eu/) European projects as well as from the ICSC National Center on HPC, Big Data and Quantum Computing targeting Digital Twins for extreme weather & climate events and data-driven/data-intensive workflows for climate change. 

How to cite: Antonio, F., Padovani, G., Sacco, L., Sopranzetti, C., Robol, M., Zefkilis, K., Marchioro, N., and Fiore, S.: yProv: a Software Ecosystem for Multi-level Provenance Management and Exploration in Climate Workflows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10981, 2025.

EGU25-11937 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

DAM2 — A Scalable and Compliant Solution for Managing enriched Infrared images as FAIR Research Data  

Jean Dumoulin, Thibaud Toullier, Nathanael Gey, and Mathias Malandain

Abstract

Efficient and secure dataset management is a critical component of collaborative research projects, where diverse data types, sharing requirements, and compliance regulations converge. This work presents a dataset management tool entitled DAM2 (Data and Model Monitoring) developed within the Chips Joint Undertaking (Chips JU) funded European BRIGHTER project [1], to address these challenges. It provides a robust and adaptable solution for handling private and public ground based measurements datasets throughout the project lifecycle. These datasets combine infrared images (e.g. multispectral ones), with visible images, local weather measurements, labeled data, etc.

The tool is designed to ensure rights management, enabling selective data sharing among authorized partners based on predefined permissions. It incorporates secure access controls to safeguard sensitive data and meets GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) requirements to guarantee compliance with European privacy standards. For public datasets, the tool integrates with Zenodo, an open-access repository, to support long-term storage and accessibility, aligning with the principles of open science. Key technical features include the usage of an open source, S3 compatible object storage server (MinIO [2]) providing scalability to manage large volumes of data. Additionally, the use of Zarr [3] data format behind the scene offers significant advantages for this cloud-based data management tool, including efficient storage of large datasets through chunking and compression, fast parallel read and write operations, and compatibility with a wide range of data analysis tools. The tool adheres to FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles, storing metadata alongside datasets to enhance usability and interoperability.

Developed as an open-source platform, the tool promotes transparency and collaboration while providing a complete and well-documented API for seamless integration with other systems. A user-friendly interface ensures accessibility for stakeholders with varying technical expertise, while the tool remains flexible to accommodate additional file formats as required. The development process incorporates insights from relevant COFREND (French Confederation for Non-Destructive Testing) working groups, to ensure alignment with broader initiatives in data management, interoperability and durability.

This paper addresses the design, study and developed platform. First operational functionalities are demonstrated through the manipulation of first BRIGHTER and other research project datasets.

In conclusion, DAM2 is a comprehensive solution for managing diverse datasets in collaborative projects, balancing security, compliance, and accessibility. It provides a foundation for efficient, compliant, and interoperable data handling while supporting the principles of open science and FAIR data management.

Perspectives include expanding interoperability with additional repositories, incorporating advanced analytic and visualization features, and integrating AI-driven automation.

Acknowledgments

Authors would like to acknowledge the BRIGHTER HORIZON project. BRIGHTER has received funding from the Chips Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 101096985. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program and France, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Turkey.

References

[1] Brighter --- Project-Brighter. https://project-brighter.eu/, accessed on January 2025.

[2] MinIO, Inc. MinIO S3 Compatible Storage for AI --- Min.Io. https://min.io/, accessed on January, 2025.

[3] Zarr --- Zarr.dev. https://zarr.dev/, accessed on January, 2025.

How to cite: Dumoulin, J., Toullier, T., Gey, N., and Malandain, M.: DAM2 — A Scalable and Compliant Solution for Managing enriched Infrared images as FAIR Research Data , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11937, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11937, 2025.

EGU25-13604 | ECS | Orals | ESSI3.3

Streamlining configurations of process-based models through extensible and free workflows 

Kasra Keshavarz, Alain Pietroniro, Darri Eythorsson, Mohamed Ismaiel Ahmed, Paul Coderre, Wouter Knoben, Martyn Clark, and Shervan Gharari

High-resolution and high-complexity process-based hydrological models play a pivotal role in advancing our understanding and prediction of water cycle dynamics, particularly in ungauged basins and under nonstationary climate conditions. However, the configuration, application, and evaluation of these models are often hindered by the intricate and inconsistent nature of a priori information available in various datasets, necessitating extensive preprocessing steps. These challenges can limit the reproducibility, applicability, and accessibility of such models for the broader scientific user community. To address these challenges, we introduce our generalized Model-Agnostic Framework (MAF), aimed at simplifying the configuration and application of data-intensive process-based hydrological models. Through a systematic investigation of commonly used models and their configuration procedures, we provide workflows designed to streamline the setup process for this category of hydrological models. Building on earlier efforts, this framework adheres to the principle of separating model-agnostic and model-specific tasks in the setup procedure of such models. The model-agnostic workflows focus on both dynamic datasets (e.g., meteorological data) and static datasets (e.g., land-use maps), while the model-specific components feed preprocessed, relevant data to the hydrological models of interest. Our initial prototypes of MAF includes recipes for various static and dynamic datasets and also tailored model-specific workflows for MESH, SUMMA, and HYPE process-based modelling frameworks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these novel workflows in reducing configuration complexity and enhancing the reproducibility of process-based hydrological models through test applications in high-performance computing environments. The framework automates numerous manual tasks, significantly saving time, and enabling continuity in research efforts. Moreover, by minimizing human error and enhancing reproducibility, this research has fostered collaboration with several Canadian government entities, leveraging sophisticated process-based models to address complex environmental challenges.

How to cite: Keshavarz, K., Pietroniro, A., Eythorsson, D., Ahmed, M. I., Coderre, P., Knoben, W., Clark, M., and Gharari, S.: Streamlining configurations of process-based models through extensible and free workflows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13604, 2025.

EGU25-18040 | ECS | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Workflows for numerical reproducibility in the OceanVar data assimilation model 

Francesco Carere, Francesca Mele, Italo Epicoco, Mario Adani, Paolo Oddo, Eric Jansen, Andrea Cipollone, and Ali Aydogdu

Numerical reproducibility is a crucial yet often overlooked challenge in ensuring the credibility of computational results and the validity of Earth system models. In large-scale, massively parallel simulations, achieving numerical reproducibility is complicated by factors such as heterogeneous HPC architectures, floating point intricacies, complex hardware/software dependencies, and the non-deterministic nature of parallel execution.

This work addresses the challenges of debugging and ensuring bitwise reproducibility (BR) in parallel simulations, specifically for the MPI-parallelised OceanVar data assimilation model. We explore methods for detecting and resolving BR-related bugs, focusing on an automated debugging process. Currently mature tools to automate this process are lacking for bugs due to MPI-parallelisation, making automatic BR verification in scientific workflows involving such codebases a time-consuming challenge.

However, BR is sometimes considered unrealistic in workflows involving heterogeneous computing architectures. As an alternative, statistical reproducibility (SR) is proposed and explored by various research groups in the Earth system modelling community, for which automated tools have been developed. For example, the scientific workflow of CESM supports automatic verification of SR using the CESM-ECT framework/PyCECT software. In case of failure of SR a root-cause analysis tool exists, CESM-RUANDA, albeit currently not fully functional. We explore SR as an alternative and complementary approach to of BR focusing on its potential to support numerical reproducibility in workflows involving heterogeneous computing architectures.

How to cite: Carere, F., Mele, F., Epicoco, I., Adani, M., Oddo, P., Jansen, E., Cipollone, A., and Aydogdu, A.: Workflows for numerical reproducibility in the OceanVar data assimilation model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18040, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18040, 2025.

EGU25-18890 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Research data management for numerical simulations in Earth-System Science 

Klaus Getzlaff and Markus Scheinert

One of today's challenges is the effective access to scientific data either within research groups or across different institutions to increase the reusability of the data and therefore their value. While large operational modeling and service centers have enabled query and access to data via common web services, this is often not the case for smaller institutions or individual research groups. Especially the maintenance of the infrastructure and the simplicity of the workflows, in order to make the data and their provenance available and accessible, are common challenges for scientists and data management.

At GEOMAR there are several data steward positions to support RDM for special disciplines and formats. They are also connected across centres to work on common standards, e.g. the netcdf standard working group in the Helmholtz Earth and Environment DataHUB.

Here we will present the institutional approach on research data management for numerical simulations in earth system science. The data handling, especially the possibilities for data sharing, publication and access, which is in today’s focus, is realized by using persistent identifier handles in combinations with a modern http web server index solution and a THREDDS server allowing remote access using standardized protocols such as OPeNDAP, WMS. By cross-linking this into the central institutional metadata and publication repositories it allows the re-usability of the data by scientists from different research groups and backgrounds. In addition to the pure data handling the documentation of the numerical simulation experiments is of similar importance to allow re-usability or reproducibility and to provide the data which will be addressed too.

How to cite: Getzlaff, K. and Scheinert, M.: Research data management for numerical simulations in Earth-System Science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18890, 2025.

EGU25-19655 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

Multi-faceted habitat connectivity: how to orchestrate remote sensing with citizen science data? 

Ivette Serral, Vitalii Kriukov, Lucy Bastin, Riyad Rahman, and Joan Masó

In the era of declining biodiversity, global climate change and transformations in land use, terrestrial habitat connectivity is one of the key parameters of ecosystem management. In this regard, the land-use/land-cover (LULC) dynamics is crucial to detect the spatiotemporal trends in connectivity of focal endangered species and to predict the effects for biodiversity for planned or proposed LULC changes.

Apart from the LULC derivatives of remote sensing, connectivity analysis and scenarios modelling can also benefit from citizen science datasets, such as Open Street Map and GBIF species occurrence data cubes in which aggregated data can be perceived as a cube with three dimensions - taxonomic, temporal and geographic. The synthetic LULC datasets which cover Catalonia every 5 years (1987-2022) were enriched via developed Data4Land harmonisation tool harnessing Open Street Map (through Overpass Turbo API) and World Database on Protected Areas. Two outstanding well-known tools, Graphab and MiraMon GIS&RS (using the Terrestrial Connectivity Index Module - ICT), were used to create the overarching dataset on terrestrial habitat connectivity in Catalonia (2012-2022) for target species and broad land cover categories, forests. Significant decline trends in forest habitat connectivity are observed for Barcelona metropolitan area, and vice versa in the Pyrenees mountain corridor and protected areas. According to the local case study on the connectivity of Mediterranean turtle in the Albera Natural Park, general positive trend was affected by massive fires in 2012.

To ensure the replicable results, the pipeline to create reliable metadata in accordance with FAIR principles, especially data lineage, is being developed, as well as the high performance computing pipeline for Graphab.

How to cite: Serral, I., Kriukov, V., Bastin, L., Rahman, R., and Masó, J.: Multi-faceted habitat connectivity: how to orchestrate remote sensing with citizen science data?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19655, 2025.

EGU25-21553 | Posters on site | ESSI3.3

European Digital Twin of the Ocean: the integration with EuroHPC platforms 

Stella Valentina Paronuzzi Ticco, Simon Lyobard, Mathis Bertin, Quentin Gaudel, Jérôme Gasperi, and Alain Arnaud

The EDITO platform serves as the foundational framework for building the European Digital Twin of the Ocean, seamlessly integrating oceanographic data, processes and services on a single and comprehensive platform. The platform provides scalable computing resources interconnected with EuroHPC supercomputing centers. We have developed a mechanism that allows users to remotely execute functions (processes) on HPCs and store the resulting output at the location of their choice (e.g. EDITO personal storage, third parties S3 buckets, etc.). This output can then be leveraged as input for subsequent processes, fostering a streamlined and interconnected workflow. Our presentation will delve into the technical details to achieve such an integration between cloud and HPC systems. 

How to cite: Paronuzzi Ticco, S. V., Lyobard, S., Bertin, M., Gaudel, Q., Gasperi, J., and Arnaud, A.: European Digital Twin of the Ocean: the integration with EuroHPC platforms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21553, 2025.

EGU25-938 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Groundwater depletion in NW India and its response on crustal deformation 

Shubham Rajewar, Akarsh Asoka, Sai Krishnan, Puviarasan Narayanasamy, Ritesh Purohit, Harsh Bhu, and Vineet Gahalaut

The GRACE measurements of the time-variable gravity field and mass change have helped in identifying regions of water reservoir over land, ice, and ocean, as well as in locating areas affected by drought and groundwater over-extraction. Studies indicate depletion in groundwater resources in North West (NW) India due to over-extraction from agricultural activities. The GPS measurements in the region indicate uplift rate varying from 1.5 to 4.2 mm/year caused by groundwater depletion-induced mass change. We observed a significant correspondence between the rainfall pattern, mass change derived from GRACE measurements, GPS measurements derived deformation, and well-level changes. Despite some marginal increase in rainfall in the past 3-4 years, the region is still experiencing over-extraction of groundwater due to increased demand for agriculture water. Although the Delhi Aravalli fold belt's paleo-structure primarily governs earthquakes in and around the Delhi region, we found no correlation between crustal strain rates and seismicity. Specifically, areas with high strain exhibited fewer earthquakes and less seismic energy release. GRACE data shows that prolonged groundwater over-extraction has resulted in significant negative anomalies in Equivalent Water Height (EWH). Although the magnitude of GRACE derived strain is very low, we find a good correlation between the GRACE-derived strain rates and seismicity. Our analysis demonstrates that groundwater over-extraction leads to substantial deformation in this region, which leads to earthquakes, and the observed uplift implies unclamping of faults, which may promote seismic events.

How to cite: Rajewar, S., Asoka, A., Krishnan, S., Narayanasamy, P., Purohit, R., Bhu, H., and Gahalaut, V.: Groundwater depletion in NW India and its response on crustal deformation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-938, 2025.

EGU25-1903 | Posters on site | G3.4

Constraining Last Interglacial ice sheet volumes through GIA-corrected sea-level reconstructions 

Jun'ichi Okuno and Yoshiya Irie

Understanding the behaviour of polar ice sheets during past warm intervals provides critical constraints on their potential response to future warming scenarios. The Last Interglacial (LIG, ~125 ka) is a particularly valuable analogue, characterised by temperatures around 1-2°C above pre-industrial levels and global mean sea level 6-9 m higher than today. This study presents a comprehensive analysis integrating relative sea level (RSL) observations with numerical modelling to reconstruct ice volume fluctuations during this key interval.

A fundamental challenge in reconstructing past ice volumes from RSL records lies in deconvolving the spatially heterogeneous solid Earth deformation signals associated with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) from the eustatic component. To address this, we have developed and implemented a high-resolution numerical model that explicitly accounts for GIA effects during the LIG. The integration of this model with a spatially extensive database of well-dated RSL indicators enables robust constraints on polar ice sheet volume changes.

This study utilises a GIA model, incorporating rotational effects, in order to predict variations in both space and time with respect to RSL during the LIG. The aim of this study is to evaluate the dependence of these predictions on penultimate glacial maximum ice geometries, by conducting a comparison with global RSL observations. The conclusions of this study serve to further the understanding of ice sheet response to warming, and thus inform future projections of sea level.

How to cite: Okuno, J. and Irie, Y.: Constraining Last Interglacial ice sheet volumes through GIA-corrected sea-level reconstructions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1903, 2025.

EGU25-2238 | Posters on site | G3.4

Investigating Surface Gravity and Height Variations due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data in Fennoscandia and Canada 

Mohammad Bagherbandi, Lars E. Sjöberg, Ismael Foroughi, and Mahmoud Abd El-Gelil

Precise gravity measurements have been consistently collected in Fennoscandia and Canada since the 1960s and 1990s, respectively, using relative gravimeters and later employing absolute gravimeters (e.g., FG5 and A10 absolute gravimeters) to establish gravity reference system and study temporal changes in gravity, e.g. associated with ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). In this study, we utilized monthly data from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on, spanning 2003 to 2023, to estimate temporal variations in surface gravity changes, their relationship with land uplift rates, and to determine the upper mantle density associated with viscous mass flow in the mantle. The main focus of this paper is Canada; however, the results will be compared with our previous studies in Fennoscandia. We used the ICE-6G_D land uplift model for Canada and the NKG2016LU regional land uplift model for Fennoscandia for this purpose. The satellite gravimetry results were compared with terrestrial absolute gravity observations collected at 43 stations across Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively.

The results derived from GRACE and GRACE Follow-on data show that the ratio between surface gravity and height changes is −0.152 ± 0.010 μGal/mm in Canada and −0.156 ± 0.016 μGal/mm in Fennoscandia aligning closely with findings from terrestrial gravity observations. These values correspond to upper mantle densities of approximately 3736 ± 239 kg/m³ and 3641 ± 382 kg/m³ in Canada and Fennoscandia, respectively. In addition, the results were combined with terrestrial absolute gravimetry results. These findings highlight the importance of satellite gravimetry data and are crucial for GIA modeling and the Earth’s interior parameters.

How to cite: Bagherbandi, M., Sjöberg, L. E., Foroughi, I., and Abd El-Gelil, M.: Investigating Surface Gravity and Height Variations due to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment: Insights from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data in Fennoscandia and Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2238, 2025.

EGU25-2530 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Surface Mass Balance Variability causes Viscoelastic Solid Earth Deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula 

Grace Nield, Michael Bentley, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Matt King, Terry Wilson, and Pippa Whitehouse

Present-day ice-mass changes in Antarctica deform the solid Earth elastically, and this signal needs removing from GPS observations of displacement before they can be used to constrain models of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). However, much of West Antarctica is underlain by weak upper mantle, meaning that these short-term fluctuations may also cause a transient or viscous deformation of the Earth. We model the viscoelastic response of the solid Earth to surface mass balance (SMB) variability in the Antarctic Peninsula and find an improved fit to GPS data at most sites compared to elastic only. Viscoelastic modelling constrains upper mantle steady-state viscosity in the northern Peninsula to 5×1017 to 2×1018 Pa s, and >1×1018 Pa s for the mid to southern Peninsula. In the northern Peninsula, removing viscoelastic displacement caused by SMB variability from GPS time series increases estimated uplift rates by up to 3mm/yr compared with using an elastic correction.

How to cite: Nield, G., Bentley, M., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., King, M., Wilson, T., and Whitehouse, P.: Surface Mass Balance Variability causes Viscoelastic Solid Earth Deformation in the Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2530, 2025.

EGU25-2615 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Poro-elastic modulation of aquifers explain seasonal and decadal geodetic signals in Southern Louisiana. 

Pritom Sarma, Carolina Hurtado-Pulido, Einat Aharonov, Renaud Toussaint, Stanislav Parez, Eduardo Arzabala, and Cynthia Ebinger

Coastal Louisiana experiences ground subsidence, exacerbating flooding and land loss from sea level rise. Natural and anthropogenic causes induce spatially and temporally varying subsidence in this sector of the Gulf of Mexico passive margin. The geodetic displacements in the Baton Rouge area over the period of 2018-2024 show cyclic seasonal displacement superposed on long-term subsidence, implying a small seasonal loading component. We assert that the seasonal fluctuations are controlled by seasonal changes in Mississippi River discharge that infiltrate sandstone aquifers separated by shales.   

Here we theoretically examine a simple radial analytical formulation of poroelastic dilation and compaction responses induced by seasonal fluctuation in groundwater levels assuming a hydrostatic response, using Darcy’ law. Due to the semi-confined nature of the aquifer, we assume a hydrostatic infiltration response, yet at the same time we assume a confined poroelastic response of the aquifer. Using a reasonable range of aquifer specific storage (Kuang et al., 2020), the predicted seasonal dilation and compaction agrees with the geodetic data on both spatial and temporal scales, exhibiting ground deformation associated with both long term groundwater extraction or recharge and seasonal groundwater fluctuation. We hence argue that the poroelasticity of aquifers can explain seasonal and long term signals in geodetic observations in Southern Louisiana without requiring additional processes like fault creep or salt movement.

How to cite: Sarma, P., Hurtado-Pulido, C., Aharonov, E., Toussaint, R., Parez, S., Arzabala, E., and Ebinger, C.: Poro-elastic modulation of aquifers explain seasonal and decadal geodetic signals in Southern Louisiana., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2615, 2025.

EGU25-2871 | Orals | G3.4

Hydrogeodesy can address key hydrological questions and water resources sustainability 

Fernando Jaramillo and the Hydrogeodesy group

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world’s water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth’s solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential to do so. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling. While some water resources, such as lakes and glaciers, are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. The expert elicitation envisages the large potential to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advancing knowledge as guidance towards a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining several hydrogeodetic technologies, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. We call for a coordinated way forward to broaden the use of hydrogeodesy and exploit its full potential.

How to cite: Jaramillo, F. and the Hydrogeodesy group: Hydrogeodesy can address key hydrological questions and water resources sustainability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2871, 2025.

EGU25-4027 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Terrestrial water storage changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau from joint inversion of GNSS and InSAR data 

Hai Zhu, Kejie Chen, Mingjia Li, Shunqiang Hu, Guoqing Zhang, Xingxing Kuang, Wenfeng Cui, and Shengpeng Zhang

While geodetic observations are now commonly used to retrieve terrestrial water storage changes at regional or watershed scales, their application at the local scale, such as individual lakes, remains limited due to spatial resolution constraints and the lack of onsite observations, especially in remote areas. This study investigated the deformation field and water storage changes at Qinghai Lake, China from January 2016 to December 2022 by integrating data from five Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images. We observed that the area surrounding Qinghai Lake exhibited an overall subsidence trend with rates ranging from -2.89 to -0.30 mm/yr between January 2016 and August 2019. However, from September 2019 to December 2022, this trend reversed to an uplift with rates ranging from 2.20 to 4.89 mm/yr. This shift in deformation direction is largely attributed to changed precipitation influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, independent component (IC) analysis of the deformation field shows that the first two ICs accounted for 77.36% and 16.67% of the data variance, representing loading signals due to regional background hydrological loading and lake water storage gains, respectively. We then reconstructed the loading deformation associated with lake dynamics and inverted the lake water storage changes, which demonstrated high consistency (r=0.86) with lake volume changes estimated from satellite water level measurements, indicating that increases in lake surface water constitute a significant portion of the water storage increases.

How to cite: Zhu, H., Chen, K., Li, M., Hu, S., Zhang, G., Kuang, X., Cui, W., and Zhang, S.: Terrestrial water storage changes of Qinghai Lake on the Tibetan Plateau from joint inversion of GNSS and InSAR data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4027, 2025.

EGU25-4691 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Assessing Long-Term and Seasonal Drivers of Black Sea Level Rise: Runoff and Loading Deformation (1993–2024) 

Zhiqiang Wen, Peyman Saemian, Wenke Sun, and Mohammad J. Tourian

Global warming and its associated impacts on sea level rise pose increasing risks to coastal regions. However, regional sea level changes are influenced by local factors, including land subsidence and localized climatic phenomena, which can exhibit significant variations that exceed the global average. As the world's largest inland sea, the Black Sea water level changes are driven not only by global climate processes but also significantly influenced by river runoff, with almost one-third of the entire land area of continental Europe draining into it, making it a critical factor in sea level variations. This study investigates long-term and seasonal variations in Black Sea water level and basin runoff by integrating satellite altimetry data with in situ hydrological observations, spanning 1993-2024. The results indicate a long-term sea level rise of 3.7 ± 0.38 mm/year for the Black Sea, with the winter season showing a notably higher trend of 3.89 ± 0.38 mm/year compared to other seasons. By investigating the relative contributions of steric (thermal expansion and salinity changes) and mass-related sea level changes, corrected for surface loading deformation, this study provides insights into the mechanisms driving regional sea level variability and the broader hydrological responses of Black Sea surrounding basins.

Keywords: the Black Sea; steric sea level rise; river discharge; Altimetry; loading deformation

How to cite: Wen, Z., Saemian, P., Sun, W., and Tourian, M. J.: Assessing Long-Term and Seasonal Drivers of Black Sea Level Rise: Runoff and Loading Deformation (1993–2024), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4691, 2025.

EGU25-4710 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Solid Earth deformation in Greenland observed by the Greenland’s GNSS Network 

Danjal Berg, Abbas Khan, and Rebekka Steffen

The Greenland ice sheet has lost significant mass over the past two decades. More than 58 permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations on bedrock, which are part of Greenland’s GNSS Network (GNET), measure the deformation continuously. The solid Earth displacement processes are two-fold: an instantaneous elastic deformation and a slow viscoelastic deformation, which can be attributed to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We have gained new insight into both vertical and horizontal land movement by removing the elastic deformation with high-resolution mass change grids.

By including mass change from Greenland and Arctic Canada peripheral glaciers, our estimates for the vertical GNSS velocities align with GIA models, though significant regional discrepancies remain. For the horizontal GNSS velocity component, new Euler poles describing the North American plate where fitted, which is the majority of the horizontal observed GNSS velocity. We compared our inferred horizontal GIA deformation with 26 1D GIA models. We discovered a significant inward contraction field in South Greenland, originating from the Laurentide ice sheet that the GIA models cannot capture. A complete North, East, and Up inferred GIA velocity field for Greenland can be used as a constraint for both GIA models and to target stations with abnormal behaviour where mass change estimates should be improved.

How to cite: Berg, D., Khan, A., and Steffen, R.: Solid Earth deformation in Greenland observed by the Greenland’s GNSS Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4710, 2025.

EGU25-6683 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

InSAR for the characterization of climate-related processes in Northwest Italy 

Daniele Guidi, Francesca Silverii, Marco Polcari, and Eleonora Rivalta

Insights into hydrologically-induced deformations of the Earth surface, and particularly of aquifers, are crucial for a better understanding of water cycle dynamics and its interaction with solid earth processes and to provide useful information for the sustainable management of water resources. The high spatio-temporal resolution and millimeter/centimeter-scale accuracy of surface deformation data from satellite geodesy techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) make it possible to measure and identify signals related to hydrological forcing. Elastic loading response has been primarily investigated using GNSS surface displacement to infer TWS variation at regional scales. The higher spatial resolution of InSAR measurements has made it possible to identify surface deformation patterns associated with the groundwater storage (GWS) variation of local aquifer systems.

In this work we leveraged Sentinel-1A Multi-Temporal InSAR observations from the European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) to analyse the deformation occurring in an area in North-Western Italy. This region hosts the Po valley, a large alluvial plain in northern Italy characterized by abundance of both surface and groundwater bodies, which are extensively exploited for farming and industrial activities. Recently, changing climatic conditions have imposed additional stress on water resources, culminating into a severe drought in 2022. GNSS data revealed an elastic response to the TWS variation associated to this drought at entire Po basin scale (Pintori & Serpelloni 2023).

We analysed InSAR time series (2018-2022) focusing on an area spanning from the low Lombardian plain to the foothills of the Alps, encompassing terrain that transitions from fine alluvial deposits in the south to coarser fan and glacial deposits in the north and including some main cities and two of the largest Italian lakes. We applied decomposition and clustering techniques in order to extract the signals contributing to the observed deformation and their spatio-temporal features. To identify the possible physical drivers, we compared our results with publicly available precipitation, rivers discharge and water head table piezometric data, and hydro-geological information. We found that different areas respond with different mechanical behaviours to the same forcing. We highlighted localized areas on the piedmont belt which are mainly characterized by a transient multiyear signal of up to 15 mm which results to be strongly correlated with precipitation, uplifting in wet periods and subsiding during drought periods. This is consistent with a poroelastic response which could be attributed to the higher localized concentration of coarse-grained material like gravel and sand in the piedmont belt. We applied models of poroelastic deformation, including, where available, hydraulic head data, to relate the identified poroelastic surface deformation to GWS variation, and characterize the aquifers properties. Outside these areas, the multiyear deformation pattern has a lower amplitude (up to 2mm) and is anticorrelated in time with precipitation, consistently with an elastic loading response. We computed the elastic deformation due to the estimated TWS variation from Pintori & Serpelloni (2023) and found agreement in order of magnitude and temporal trends with InSAR data.

How to cite: Guidi, D., Silverii, F., Polcari, M., and Rivalta, E.: InSAR for the characterization of climate-related processes in Northwest Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6683, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6683, 2025.

EGU25-6751 | Posters on site | G3.4

Timing of glacier retreat and spatio-temporal variations in the vertical deformation rate of the Horseshoe Island, Marguarite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula 

Mehmet Korhan Erturaç, Eren Şahiner, Raif Kandemir, Hilal Okur, İrem Salman, Altuğ Hasözbek, Mehmet Salim Öncel, Jintang Qin, and Naki Akçar

The Antarctic Peninsula is uplifting rapidly due to the isostatic response to ice sheet unloading since the Holocene. Understanding the timing and rate of this process is crucial for addressing several key research questions: (1) exploring the elastic interactions between the mantle and lithosphere to improve Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) models, (2) assessing the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to Holocene global sea level rise, and (3) investigating the modern response of Antarctic ice sheets to climate change, helping to identify high-impact research areas for polar science.
We focus on stepped coastal terrace staircases formed at the Horseshoe Island, Marguerite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula. We used low altitude UAS aided SfM mapping to measure the horizontal and vertical geometry of stepped terraces and deployed absolute dating methods (luminescence and radiocarbon) to establish their formation timelines for the east (Gaul Cove, #6 dates), north (Sally Cove, #2) and west (Lystad Bay, #2) of the island.  
The field observations and achieved data explained the formation mechanisms and evolutionary steps of the terraces and pinpoint (1) the timing of deglaciation of the Island, (2) reconstruct a RSL curve for the Holocene and (3) variations in temporal and spatial vertical uplift rates. Our reconstructed RSL(s) fit the geometry of model curves proposed by Peltier (2004) and Whitehouse (2018) . However, there is an apparent discrepancy between our results and published estimations from coastal record of Antarctic Peninsula. This raises questions on the accuracy of dating or interpretation of the results for studies on stepped-coastal terraces. This presentation aims to represent analytical data to discuss these critical issues.
This study was carried under the auspices of Presidency of The Republic of Turkey, supported by the Ministry of Industry and Technology, and coordinated by TUBITAK MAM Polar Research Institute within the TAE-VIII expedition and supported by TUBITAK 122G261 grant.

How to cite: Erturaç, M. K., Şahiner, E., Kandemir, R., Okur, H., Salman, İ., Hasözbek, A., Öncel, M. S., Qin, J., and Akçar, N.: Timing of glacier retreat and spatio-temporal variations in the vertical deformation rate of the Horseshoe Island, Marguarite Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6751, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6751, 2025.

EGU25-6896 | Posters on site | G3.4

A Novel Approach to Aquifer Classification Using Hysteresis Loop Analysis and Deep Learning for Sustainable Groundwater Management 

Behshid Khodaei, Hossein Hashemi, and Mazda Kompanizare

Aquifer classification plays a pivotal role in understanding groundwater dynamics and informing sustainable water resource management, especially in regions under significant stress from over-extraction. This study presents a novel remote sensing-based methodology for classifying aquifers represented by monitoring wells within the study area. The approach integrates stress-strain analysis, incorporating deformation data derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and groundwater head measurements from monitoring wells, utilizing advanced deep-learning techniques. Groundwater data from piezometric wells are utilized to create image-based representations of hysteresis loops derived from stress-strain diagrams, capturing aquifer deformation under varying drawdown and recovery cycles. A convolutional neural network is applied to extract high-dimensional features characterizing aquifer response dynamics. Principal component analysis is then employed to reduce dimensionality, highlighting the most significant features driving classification. Finally, unsupervised clustering methods are used to group piezometric wells, revealing distinct aquifer types and deformation patterns. The proposed methodology is tested in three hydrologically and geologically diverse regions of Iran: Shabestar, Urmia, and Neyshabur Plains. In the Shabestar and Urmia Plains, located near the hypersaline Lake Urmia, intensive groundwater extraction has severely strained local hydrological and ecological systems, contributing to declining lake levels and increased stress on water resources. Similarly, in the Neyshabur Plain in northeastern Iran, characterized by its arid to semi-arid environment and intricate geological features, excessive groundwater use has led to significant aquifer depletion and land subsidence. The proposed approach effectively identifies different aquifer types, analyzes the balance between elastic and inelastic deformation, and determines aquifer responses to varying degrees of groundwater extraction. By integrating InSAR-based deformation monitoring of ground surface with advanced deep learning techniques, the study provides a comprehensive framework for aquifer system characterization. The findings are particularly valuable for regions with scarce geological and hydrological data, offering insights to guide sustainable groundwater management practices, mitigate environmental degradation, and support effective decision-making. 

How to cite: Khodaei, B., Hashemi, H., and Kompanizare, M.: A Novel Approach to Aquifer Classification Using Hysteresis Loop Analysis and Deep Learning for Sustainable Groundwater Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6896, 2025.

Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) is a vital component of the Earth's hydrological and climate systems, influencing water resource management and ecosystem dynamics. However, current TWS estimation techniques, such as those derived from global spherical harmonics, suffer from low spatial and temporal resolutions, limiting their application for regional studies. To address this issue, this study proposes a framework for regional TWS estimation based on Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis (SCHA) applied to GNSS-derived vertical crustal displacements. The proposed methodology employs the remove-restore strategy to isolate the hydrological load within the cap. First, mass redistribution signals from outside the cap are removed using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data. The GNSS-derived residual vertical displacements are then expanded into SCHA coefficients, incorporating modified load Love numbers that account for the spherical cap geometry. The modified load Love numbers ensure a physically consistent representation of the Earth's elastic response within the cap boundary. The estimated coefficients (residual) are used to recover residual TWS variations, after which the removed external contributions are restored. The proposed approach provides enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy compared to traditional global spherical harmonics by tailoring the analysis to the geometry of a spherical cap.

Both simulated and observed GNSS data from a network of stations across Brazil, covering diverse hydrological regimes—from the Amazon Basin to the semi-arid Northeast—are analyzed to validate this approach. The results reveal spatial and temporal patterns of TWS changes, demonstrating agreement with independent GRACE estimates and hydrological models. These findings emphasize the ability of SCHA-based regional analysis to capture local-scale hydrological processes with higher precision than global methods. Furthermore, this study highlights the potential of SCHA to complement GRACE datasets in regions with dense GNSS observational coverage and advances geodetic techniques for hydrological monitoring.

How to cite: Ferreira, V.: Regional Terrestrial Water Storage Recovery Using Spherical Cap Harmonics from GNSS-Derived Vertical Displacements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7627, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7627, 2025.

EGU25-8623 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

A dataset of GPS-observed daily displacements for hydrogeodetic studies over Europe 

Anna Klos, Anne Springer, Artur Lenczuk, Christian Mielke, Jan Mikocki, Jürgen Kusche, and Janusz Bogusz

We use more than 5,000 Global Positioning System (GPS) permanent stations whose observations are processed by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (NGL) and located in Europe to classify them as reliable for hydrogeodetic studies, a so-called hydrogeodetic benchmarks. Benchmarks are defined by investigating whether the GPS-observed daily vertical displacements are positively and significantly correlated with hydrological model, whose Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) estimates are converted into model-predicted daily vertical displacements. Due to the complexity of the hydrospheric phenomenon, we propose that these correlations are considered at three different temporal scales, assumed a-priori as short-term, seasonal and long-term. First, the GPS-observed vertical displacements are decomposed using non-parametric wavelet decomposition and then, we correlate these decomposed displacements with high-resolution nested regional Community Land Model 5.0 (CLM5), which is more reliable than global models and represents the spatial resolution of 12 km. We prove that GPS-observed displacements at benchmark points show high correspondence to the vertical displacements derived by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We then use these benchmarked points and invert the GPS-observed displacements into TWS fields for several European basins. We demonstrate that these TWS estimates exhibit consistent and interpretable spatial patterns and are better correlated at all three temporal scales with external datasets, such as climate indices, than TWS estimates derived from the conventional approach used to date. The research is crucial for future hydrogeodetic analyses that take a step forward towards daily temporal resolution of hydrosphere-related products.

How to cite: Klos, A., Springer, A., Lenczuk, A., Mielke, C., Mikocki, J., Kusche, J., and Bogusz, J.: A dataset of GPS-observed daily displacements for hydrogeodetic studies over Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8623, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8623, 2025.

EGU25-8675 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Local sea level changes due to Greenland ice sheet mass changes from 1970 to 2100 

Konstanze Haubner, Natalya Gomez, Erica Lucas, Charlotte Rahlves, Kristin Richter, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, and Andreas Born

The Greenland ice sheet is melting at an increasing rate and is predicted to have a large contribution to sea level change by 2100. Future climate over Greenland, which determines the ice sheet’s surface melt and marine-terminating glacier retreat, represents a major source of uncertainty for Greenland ice sheet evolution (ISMIP6). In this study, we explore the Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level change from 1960 to 2100 and quantify how uncertainties in projected climate change and Earth rheological structure shape global and local sea level changes and their spatio-temporal variability.

Ice load history is provided by simulations following the ISMIP6 protocol. To project regional sea level changes, we employ two different gravitationally self-consistent sea level models. We use the pseudo-spectral sea level model described in Gomez et al. (2010). To test the sensitivity of projections to surface resolution and Earth structure, the experiments are repeated with the finite volume sea level model SEAKON (Latychev 2005) that includes 3D variations in Earth structure and grid refinement capabilities to reach ~5 km surface resolution over Greenland.

Results highlight the spatial variability of projected sea level for communities along the Greenlandic coastline, and contrast local changes to farfield sea level rise for Pacific Islands. With a spread of -1.00m to -2.96m sea level change by 2100 around Ilulissat, West Greenland, our results are up to three times the value provided by the NASA IPCC sea level tool (-0.8m) and emphasize the need for more studies addressing local sea level changes.

How to cite: Haubner, K., Gomez, N., Lucas, E., Rahlves, C., Richter, K., Nisancioglu, K. H., and Born, A.: Local sea level changes due to Greenland ice sheet mass changes from 1970 to 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8675, 2025.

EGU25-10069 | Posters on site | G3.4

Solid Earth response to climate change in Svalbard and South America using geodetic observations of hydrological loading 

Joëlle Nicolas, Alicia Tafflet, Jean-Paul Boy, Agnès Baltzer, and Jérôme Verdun

Global warming and other climate change influences are leading to major changes in the global hydrological cycle. The response of the Solid Earth to water mass transfers causes crustal deformations and gravity field temporal variations that can be monitored by space geodesy. It is challenging to identify the climate change signature contained in the time series and to separate the different contributions from various spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we use more than 20 years of GNSS and GRACE time series to analyse hydrological loading signal in two different areas that are highly sensitive to climate change. The Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic is one of the fastest warming locations in the world. We use seasonal analysis and comparison with satellite altimetry and in-situ datasets to distinguish current ice melting from the solid Earth’s response to past events (GIA, LIA). South America and the Amazon basin, home to some of the world’s largest rivers, have recently experienced severe drought and extreme floods. The hydrological loading shows huge annual variations superimposed on interannual variations linked to extreme events. It is therefore essential to use high-performance analysis methods to separate the part of the observed signals associated with climate change from the well-known seasonal trends. To assess their reliability and interpretation, the results are discussed in relation to complementary datasets and models.

How to cite: Nicolas, J., Tafflet, A., Boy, J.-P., Baltzer, A., and Verdun, J.: Solid Earth response to climate change in Svalbard and South America using geodetic observations of hydrological loading, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10069, 2025.

The Earth's surface undergoes deformations due to temporal variations in the distribution of atmospheric, hydrological and oceanic mass loads on the lithosphere. These deformations can be observed using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data where seasonal variations are particularly prominent in GNSS height time series.

While continental-scale water mass redistributions can be captured by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment/Follow On (GRACE/FO) or global hydrological models, surface water storage changes e.g. those caused by rivers and lakes cannot be resolved. However, GNSS timeseries may contain these small-scale surface water loading signals especially when located close to water bodies. Correctly representing such close-range, subgrid-scale loading signals is important for interpreting GNSS displacements, in particular when the goal is validating hydrological models.

In this study, we compiled daily time series from 326 GNSS stations jointly with water level observations along the Rhine river in the the Eifel area, North West Europe. The GNSS time series underwent careful post-processing including offset corrections and outlier removal. We identified a statistical relationship between the annual GNSS amplitudes and the stations' distance from the Rhine River. After applying blind source separation techniques, including Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and hydrological model-based corrections (using the Community Land Model version 5, CLM5, at daily resolution) to isolate large-scale common mode signals from the GNSS observations, the correlation between the residual GNSS signals and Rhine river level variations improved. We further inverted for regional elastic Earth parameters based on a half-space infinite elastic Earth model to estimate the surface water induced vertical displacements. The results demonstrated that surface water loading could account for a considerable fraction of the vertical displacement observed at GNSS stations near the riverbanks on daily to monthly timescales.

How to cite: Zhang, L., Karegar, M., and Kusche, J.: GNSS observations of the surface water storage-induced displacements in the Eifel area, NW Europe: the influence of the Rhine river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10956, 2025.

EGU25-11444 | Posters on site | G3.4

Compressible vs. incompressible in glacial isostatic adjustment models: Does it matter? 

Rebekka Steffen, Holger Steffen, Pingping Huang, and Patrick Wu

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models provide estimates of velocity, gravity, stress, and sea-level change based on ice-loading scenarios from past glaciations. These models require extensive input, including ice histories and a variety of Earth model parameters that describe the 3D structure and rheology. Different assumptions can be made regarding material parameters, particularly in terms of compressibility, which is described by the Poisson’s ratio. Incompressible materials (Poisson’s ratio equal to 0.5) do not change volume under deformation. However, seismological observations indicate that the Poisson’s ratio in the lithosphere and mantle deviates from 0.5, typically being much smaller, which reflects the presence of compressible materials. Consequently, GIA models must account for compressibility in their material parameters as well as in the solved equations. Despite this, some GIA model codes consider only incompressible materials.

Here, we will show the effect of compressible versus incompressible Earth models on changes in sea level, velocity, gravity, and stress using a newly developed compressible finite-element code. The new GIA model code incorporates the sea-level equation with moving coastlines and rotational feedback, accounts for both grounded and floating ice, removes rigid-body rotation, and calculates deformation in the centre-of-mass frame. Importantly, this global-scale analysis, using the new code, is the first to explore how glacially induced stresses obtained from a spherical GIA model are affected by assumptions about compressibility.

How to cite: Steffen, R., Steffen, H., Huang, P., and Wu, P.: Compressible vs. incompressible in glacial isostatic adjustment models: Does it matter?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11444, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11444, 2025.

EGU25-13419 | Orals | G3.4 | Highlight

Geodetic Insights into Water Resources and Drought Dynamics in the Western United States 

Hilary R Martens, Zachary M Young, Donald F Argus, Matthew J Swarr, W Payton Gardner, Nicholas Lau, Adrian A Borsa, Zachary Hoylman, Qian Cao, Anna M Wilson, Ming Pan, Ellen Knappe, F Martin Ralph, Simone Puel, Alexander Berne, Mark Simons, and Yuning Fu

Developing a comprehensive understanding of global water resources – and their responses to extreme events and variations in climate – requires integrating diverse modeling and observational approaches across disciplines, with geodesy playing an increasingly integral role. Geodetic measurements and models, including those tracking solid Earth deformation caused by mass redistribution in the hydrosphere, provide key insights into water-cycle processes and systems. This study focuses on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from the western United States to examine recurring cycles of severe drought and rapid recovery over the past two decades. Interdisciplinary evidence from hydrology, meteorology, and geodesy suggests that these cycles are strongly associated with variability in the frequency and intensity of seasonal atmospheric rivers (ARs). During Water Year 2023, GNSS data revealed record-breaking water-storage gains in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains and Sacramento-San Joaquin-Tulare (SST) river basins, driven largely by an exceptional series of powerful ARs. In the six-month period between October 2022 and March 2023, water-storage gains in these regions surpassed those of any prior year in the analysis, which began in 2006, with an estimated 80% of the gains delivered by ARs. By early spring 2023, we infer that approximately half of the water-storage gains had infiltrated the subsurface, providing a critical water resource for downstream communities through processes such as mountain block recharge. Our analysis further shows that hydrological drought and recovery, based on GNSS estimates of total water-storage changes, respond more slowly to precipitation patterns than meteorological drought and recovery, highlighting the insulation of subsurface pools from surface fluxes. We find that years with heavy precipitation can help to sustain storage levels into subsequent years with less precipitation. Moreover, as geodetic observational accuracy improves, a deeper understanding of the assumptions, limitations, and opportunities inherent in our models is necessary. To assess the precision of GNSS-informed water-storage estimates, we compare results derived from independent GNSS position estimates and inversion techniques. Additionally, we provide updates on recent progress in developing community-available modeling tools and investigating the effects of 3-D heterogeneities in Earth structure on deformation responses to surface mass loading.

How to cite: Martens, H. R., Young, Z. M., Argus, D. F., Swarr, M. J., Gardner, W. P., Lau, N., Borsa, A. A., Hoylman, Z., Cao, Q., Wilson, A. M., Pan, M., Knappe, E., Ralph, F. M., Puel, S., Berne, A., Simons, M., and Fu, Y.: Geodetic Insights into Water Resources and Drought Dynamics in the Western United States, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13419, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13419, 2025.

EGU25-14180 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Modelling sea-level reconstructions from southern Greenland: Implications for glacially-induced faulting and the response of the ice sheet to the Younger Dryas cold interval 

Alexis Lepipas, Parviz Ajourlou, Glenn Milne, Lev Tarasov, and Sarah Woodroffe

Understanding the past evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is important for accurately simulating its future behavior and thus its contribution to global mean sea level rise. Data and models related to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have provided critical constraints on past GrIS evolution. These models are necessary to interpret a variety of data, including past sea-level changes and geodetic observations of current land motion and gravity changes. In all studies to date, paleo sea level data from southern Greenland have presented the greatest challenge to GIA models. Poor data-model fits in this region have led to the hypothesis of glacially-induced faulting  during periods of rapid ice loss (with associated tsunami hazard).

In this study, we seek to determine if quality fits to the southern Greenland relative sea level (RSL) data can be obtained by improving the GIA model and exploring the parameter space more fully than past efforts. Specifically, we consider two recent advancements in model development: new 3-D models of earth viscosity structure based on the joint inversion of regional geophysical datasets, and GrIS reconstructions output from a leading glacial systems model. The improved 3-D earth models result in a larger RSL fall compared to past 1-D earth modelling and so that amplitude of the measured signal can be accurately simulated at most sites in southern Greenland. However, the rate and timing of RSL fall are generally too late and too slow to match many of the mid-Holocene sea-level index points. We seek to improve this aspect of the model fits by varying the ice history model. A two-step approach is used: (1) manually adjust the timing and rate of ice retreat in a chosen model to identify if plausible variations in these aspects can capture RSL data, and (2) assuming (1) is satisfied, seek to produce a glaciologically consistent ice history by varying parameters within the glacial systems model (e.g., climate forcing). In this presentation, we will provide an update on the status of our sensitivity analysis and the implications for glacially-induced faulting and the ice sheet response to the Younger Dryas cold interval.

How to cite: Lepipas, A., Ajourlou, P., Milne, G., Tarasov, L., and Woodroffe, S.: Modelling sea-level reconstructions from southern Greenland: Implications for glacially-induced faulting and the response of the ice sheet to the Younger Dryas cold interval, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14180, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14180, 2025.

EGU25-14187 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Measuring drought impacts using a hybrid GNSS, InSAR, and GRACE joint inversion approach over California’s Central Valley 

Grace Carlson, Susanna Werth, and Manoochehr Shirzaei

California commonly experiences multi-year droughts, which are intensified due to groundwater pumping in the Central Valley, a region of extensive farmland relying heavily on irrigation to grow crops. These large water loss signals cause surface deformation and gravity variations measurable from space that have been the focus of numerous hydro-geodetic studies. Studies of surface deformation in the region dominantly either focus on the elastic loading and unloading response of the land surface to fluctuations in water mass, or alternatively, on aquifer system deformation driven by groundwater pumping. Because these two deformation signals are opposite in sign, there is an outstanding challenge to cohesively combine these processes in order to accurately assess changes in water storage at resolutions and uncertainties sufficient for water management applications.

Here, we present a unique joint inversion approach integrating observations of surface deformation from GNSS and InSAR that does not require the separation of elastic loading and poromechanical aquifer deformation. Instead, our approach aims to identify a best-fitting solution consistent with both overlapping processes to simultaneously solve for the groundwater storage and total terrestrial water storage (TWS) loss during the drought years of 2020 and 2021 in California. Our inversion approach is further constrained with large-scale terrestrial water storage anomalies observed by the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE- follow on (GRACE-FO). Results from our inversion show that we can achieve a high-resolution and more realistic estimate of TWS loss within the Central Valley than an inversion of GRACE-FO and GNSS elastic loading displacements provide, alone. Results also reveal a groundwater volume loss of 20.4 ± 2.6 km3 in the semi-confined to confined portion of the Central Valley aquifer-system, which agrees well with a conventional GRACE-FO-derived groundwater loss (27.7 ± 5.3 km3) when considering underlying processes and uncertainties. This work reveals the potential of geodetic observations in hydro-hazards research and shows that by integrating multiple measurement systems, we can isolate storage components, like groundwater, that are notoriously challenging to separate from other dynamics, providing  insights into hydrologic processes and anthropogenic impacts at a regional scale.

How to cite: Carlson, G., Werth, S., and Shirzaei, M.: Measuring drought impacts using a hybrid GNSS, InSAR, and GRACE joint inversion approach over California’s Central Valley, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14187, 2025.

Mass transfer between the cryosphere and oceans leads to sea-surface height and topography changes whose timescales, amplitudes, and spatial patterns are controlled by mantle viscoelasticity. This ‘glacial isostatic adjustment’ (GIA) can slow or halt retreat of unstable marine-based ice sheets since ice loss induces gravitational sea-surface lowering and bedrock rebound, reducing water depths around ice-sheet margins and lowering their exposure to melting by warm ocean currents. Despite widespread recognition of this solid Earth–ice-sheet feedback, it has often been assumed that Earth’s mantle is too viscous for GIA to have a measurable impact on ice-sheet dynamics over the next few centuries, with many ice-sheet models used in state-of-the-art intercomparison projects assuming either a rigid bed or millennial viscoelastic bedrock deformation timescales. However, GPS bedrock displacement timeseries suggest very low mantle viscosities exist beneath vulnerable regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (~1017–1019 Pa s), implying that bedrock elevations are responding to modern melting on annual-to-decadal timescales, i.e., fast enough to have significant impact on ice-sheet stability over the coming centuries. Interestingly, GPS-inferred viscosities obtained in the same regions, but from bedrock responses to longer-timescale (102 –105-yr) deglacial signals, are at ~10–100 times larger. This result suggests the low effective viscosities obtained for modern signals reflect the operation of transient deformation mechanisms. If confirmed, this transience would have major ramifications for our understanding of future Antarctic ice-sheet stability, since it would introduce a negative feedback whereby mantle viscosities and bedrock uplift rates scale with ice mass loss rates, limiting the speed of subsequent grounding line retreat.

 

Here, we first test whether observed loading-timescale-dependence of GPS-inferred mantle viscosities can be explained using experimentally constrained parameterisations of transient rock deformation across seismic to convective timescales. This analysis is carried out by calibrating these thermomechanical parameterisations for individual seismic tomographic models using both geophysical and experimental observations. Importantly, by adopting a probabilistic inverse method we evaluate parametric uncertainties and propagate them into our estimates of timescale-dependent 3D mantle viscosity. We find that transient and steady-state viscosities predicted by our optimal parameterisations can simultaneously explain the short- and long-timescale GPS signals recorded across the Antarctic Peninsula. Next, we integrate this thermomechanical structure into 1D transient and Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models to quantify the impact of this more complex rheology on rates of Antarctic bedrock uplift and relative sea-level change on deglaciation timescales ranging from years to millenia. Our results show that transient mechanisms have measurable impacts on all submillenial deglaciation timescales but are particularly pronounced over decadal-to-centennial intervals, producing up to ~50% more bedrock uplift and up to ~70% higher maximum uplift rates than steady-state counterparts. We conclude by presenting a thermomechanically self-consistent framework for integrating our calibrated ‘full-spectrum’ rheological parameterisations into coupled GIA–ice-sheet simulations that account for observed transient and 3D viscosity variations. We will present early results from these simulations that will ultimately enable the potential stabilising impact of transient rheology on Antarctic ice-sheet evolution to be quantified under different climatic forcing scenarios, improving projections of future barystatic sea-level change.

How to cite: Richards, F., Hazzard, J., and Lau, H.: Towards a Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Transient Mantle Rheology on Future Antarctic Ice-Sheet Stability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17315, 2025.

EGU25-17461 | ECS | Posters on site | G3.4

Comparing hydrological models of different resolution to multiple high-precision terrestrial gravity time series at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany 

Anna Winter, Marvin Reich, Patricio Yeste, Laura Jensen, Ezequiel D. Antokoletz, Andreas Güntner, and Hartmut Wziontek

Hydrological monitoring methods usually observe water storage changes in specific depths or for a limited number of storage compartments only and are often representative for a small volume only. In contrast, gravity measurements are sensitive to mass changes as a spatially integrated signal. This makes them a valuable complementary tool for monitoring total water storage changes. The hydrological contribution to the time-variable gravimetric signal often plays a major role for the overall signal dynamics. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of understanding the influence of the local hydrological dynamics at many terrestrial gravity stations. Thus, advancing the hydrological corrections on gravity signals is highly valuable for improving the interpretation of gravity measurements with respect to other processes of interest, e.g., geodynamic, atmospheric or ocean-loading effects.

In this case study, we consider the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (GOW), located in the river Regen catchment in a low mountain range in East Bavaria, Germany. Here, long-term stable records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs) are available at three different points at the observatory within a distance of about 200 meters. The time series are corrected for tidal, atmospheric and other non-hydrological effects as accurate as possible. Further, an extensive hydrological sensor network has been operated at GOW for more than a decade and compared with the gravimetric observations in previous studies.

We compare different hydrological corrections on the gravity time series, based on two regional and one local hydrology model as well as on in-situ data of soil moisture sensor profiles in the direct vicinity of the gravimeters. For the regional models we use the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ), implemented for the river Regen catchment with a spatial and temporal resolution of one kilometer and one day, respectively, and OS LISFLOOD (European Commission Joint Research Center) for the same catchment area and with 0.05° and one day spatial and temporal resolution, respectively. Both models are forced with national and global meteorological data sets. As a local model, we use a HYDRUS 1D (J. Simunek, et al., 2008) setup with finer resolved vertical layers and forcing from in-situ meteorological observations. Applying the different models to all three SG records provides insights on the efficiency of a small-scale versus a large-scale approach for hydrological corrections in view of the marked subsurface complexity and heterogeneity at GOW.

How to cite: Winter, A., Reich, M., Yeste, P., Jensen, L., Antokoletz, E. D., Güntner, A., and Wziontek, H.: Comparing hydrological models of different resolution to multiple high-precision terrestrial gravity time series at the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell, Germany, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17461, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17461, 2025.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-on (GFO) gravity observations have significantly improved models of the terrestrial water cycle globally. However, GRACE-assimilated models of terrestrial water storage still show differences amongst the models, and studies to determine their ability to predict the state of terrestrial water storage in different regions are ongoing. This paper uses Global Positioning System (GPS) data to assess two global GRACE-assimilated datasets: GLWS2.0 and CLSM-DA. From 2004 to 2019, the mean annual amplitude of water thickness of these datasets differs by more than 25 mm over 40% of the land area. Additionally, the models predict the timing of maximum water storage with difference in phase of 30-days across 50% of their domain. We compare the modeled hydrological loading vertical displacements predicted from these models with GPS uplift data as a measure of the model quality. We cluster 5,983 global GPS stations, each with at least three years of daily data, based on river basin borders. This segmentation allows for better detection of how hydrological conditions, e.g. precipitation patterns, soil characteristics, etc., and model calibration (applied in each river basin) influence the model-GPS agreement.    

Our comparison demonstrates that compared to GLWS2.0, CLSM-DA generally agrees better with GPS and GRACE data across more river basins. We find that the 100-300 mm larger annual water variation of CLSM-DA to GLWS2.0 accounts for CLSM-DA’s better agreement with GPS in Africa, Southeast Asia, and some parts of South America. For regions like the Western United States and Eastern Europe, where the two models propose a similar range of annual water variation, the 30-60 days phase delay of CLSM-DA improves its alignment with GPS. Our findings highlight the need for regional improvement in these models, particularly in areas where they significantly deviate from GPS observations of the terrestrial water variation.

How to cite: Abbaszadeh, M. and van Dam, T.: Assessment of two GRACE-assimilated terrestrial water storage datasets across 44 river basins using GPS observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18131, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18131, 2025.

EGU25-19166 | ECS | Orals | G3.4

Daily Hydrologic Drought Assessment Using GPS: Improving Drought Management with the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI) 

Zachary Young, Hilary Martens, Zachary Hoylman, and W. Payton Gardner

Anthropologically, drought intensity is measured not by how strongly the rain falls over a few days but by how dry the land becomes over a specific period of time. The duration and intensity of this drying period, affects hydrologic pools (i.e. rivers, lakes, and groundwater) uniquely based on the characteristics of their respective drainage basins. Contrarily, drought management techniques currently rely heavily on meteorologically derived drought indices (e.g., the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), which offer valuable insights into the amount of water entering the system but provide no information about water retention levels. As such, currently only GPS-based drought indices provide direct characterization of hydrologic drought with both high spatial resolution, and daily temporal resolution. To assist in the retention of hydrologic resources, we present an update on the status of the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI). Our methodology advances those presented by Young et al, 2024. We leverage the availability of the data provided by the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, and produce a framework which provides rapid US-GDI hydrologic drought assessment solutions with a latency of ~48 hours. Final solutions are expected within 10-14 days. Solutions for the full study period are calculated daily, with hydrologic load estimates, GDI evaluations between one day and 48 months, and step offsets in the vertical component updated daily. To assess the sensitivity of the US-GDI to hydrologic resources, we present an analysis of the correlation between US-GDI timescales and to stream discharge, surface-reservoir storage/elevations, and groundwater across specific hydrologic units across the United States. To facilitate the distribution of the results, we introduce a webpage which provides direct access to all solutions provided by the US-GDI (including both hydrologic loading estimates, and GDI time scale solution. The US-GDI represents an opportunity to significantly improve hydrologic resource preservation and maintenance during periods of sustained hydrologic drought.

How to cite: Young, Z., Martens, H., Hoylman, Z., and Gardner, W. P.: Daily Hydrologic Drought Assessment Using GPS: Improving Drought Management with the United States GPS-Based Drought Index (US-GDI), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19166, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19166, 2025.

EGU25-19469 | Orals | G3.4

Inferring consistent coordinate time series from reprocessed GNSS data (GIANT-REGAIN) to probe the solid Earth and its interactions in Antarctica 

Mirko Scheinert, Eric Buchta, Matt King, Terry Wilson, Achraf Koulali, Peter Clarke, Demián Gómez, and Eric Kendrick

For almost three decades, geodetic GNSS measurements have been used to infer bedrock displacement in Antarctica. However, until now Antarctic-wide studies have only been able to make use of a limited number of GNSS stations and have also been limited in time. Within the project GIANT-REGAIN (Geodynamics In ANTarctica based on REprocessing GNSS DAta INitiative), endorsed by the SCAR Expert Group GIANT and the SCAR Scientific Program INSTANT, for the first time geodetic GNSS data have been compiled for as many Antarctic bedrock stations as possible, covering the period from 1995 to 2021. The recordings include permanent and episodic observations at more than 270 sites. In order to provide a consistent and reliable analysis of these data, four processing centres have joined forces to reprocess the data. The background and the most important issues of the reprocessing will be reported. We will discuss the resulting coordinate time series in terms of their reliability and uncertainty, and their usability to infer displacement rates for subsequent analyses in Antarctic geodynamics, especially GIA. Thus, these coordinate time series will allow to investigate the Antarctic bedrock displacement pattern in much more detail than before. Inferring displacement rates will enable us to study deformation processes on different time and spatial scales, governed by the rheological properties of the Earth’s interior. This includes the response of the solid Earth on short time scales due to a weak upper mantle or the variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Holocene which may lead to present-day subsidence.

The results of GIANT-REGAIN are discussed in a paper published in Earth System Science Data, and the data products are archived at PANGAEA and, thus, publicly accessible.

How to cite: Scheinert, M., Buchta, E., King, M., Wilson, T., Koulali, A., Clarke, P., Gómez, D., and Kendrick, E.: Inferring consistent coordinate time series from reprocessed GNSS data (GIANT-REGAIN) to probe the solid Earth and its interactions in Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19469, 2025.

EGU25-2316 | Posters on site | GI1.3

Development of an intelligent recirculating water system for land-based sea cucumber aquaculture 

Kuo-Hua Chien, Wen-Shun Huang, Jinn-Chyi     Chen , and Xiangfei   Ren 

  Presently, three fundamental methods are employed for sea cucumber aquaculture: pond culture, dam culture, and submarine seedling culture. However, these methods are susceptible to environmental water quality degradation due to factors such as sea cucumber feces, excessive feed, and climate change, which can impede sea cucumber growth and affect yields.

In order to address the issues outlined above, this study presents the intelligent circulating water system (ICWS), which is composed of a composite low-energy physical liquid-solid separator and a multi-mixed biofilter. A detailed description of these components is provided below.

  • Composite Low Energy Physical Liquid-Solid Separator

The liquid-solid separator uses minimal energy because of its innovative composite type. It extracts the contaminant source from the aquatic environment, reducing biofilter bed load and energy demand.

  • Multi-mixed Biofilter

The configuration of hybrid arrangement structures increases the specific surface area of the biofilter, leading to a reduction in its volume. The structure controls flow rate, hydraulic residence time, and hydraulic loading, which can be used to regulate temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and ammonia levels. This ensures the provision of high-quality water that meets the needs of sea cucumbers.

The innovative low-energy-consuming water recycling system outlined in this project has the theoretical potential to achieve complete water recycling without the necessity of replenishing the source water. This scenario presents a mutually beneficial opportunity for the sustainable utilization of Earth's water resources and the realm of commercial aquaculture, exhibiting no inherent incompatibility.

How to cite: Chien, K.-H., Huang, W.-S., Chen , J.-C.  .  ., and Ren , X.  .: Development of an intelligent recirculating water system for land-based sea cucumber aquaculture, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2316, 2025.

EGU25-4974 | ECS | Posters on site | GI1.3

Improving Discharge Measurement in Unmeasured Zones of ADCPs 

Jongmin Kim and Dongsu Kim

The Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) is one of the most commonly used instruments for measuring river discharge by utilizing the Doppler effect of acoustic waves. However, its reliance on a single transducer introduces certain limitations. During the transition between transmission and reception of the acoustic signal, the returning signal cannot be captured, resulting in an inability to measure discharge near the sensor.

Additionally, side-lobe interference generated by acoustic waves reflects off the riverbed and contaminates measurements near the bottom. To mitigate this, discharge data within 5% of the water depth from the bottom are typically excluded from results. Furthermore, in shallow areas where the unmeasured regions near the sensor and near the bottom overlap, discharge cannot be accurately measured.

To address these gaps, discharge in the unmeasured regions of ADCP measurements is typically extrapolated using data from the measured sections or calculated using empirical equations. In this study, a method to improve the measurement accuracy in the unmeasured regions of the ADCP was developed and evaluated.

 

Acknowledgements 

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) through Research and development on the technology for securing the water resouces stability in response to future change Program, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(RS-2024-00336020)

How to cite: Kim, J. and Kim, D.: Improving Discharge Measurement in Unmeasured Zones of ADCPs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4974, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4974, 2025.

EGU25-9193 | Posters on site | GI1.3

Monitoring for  sustainable and inclusive urban areas 

Francesco Soldovieri, Vincenzo Cuomo, and Jean Dumoulin

Urban areas need to rethink their policies to strengthen their capacities to prepare for and respond to hazards and become more resilient, intelligent and inclusive. In this context, one of the objectives is to ensure the resilience of their services and systems against multi-hazard scenarios, where the effect of local hazards combines with global challenges such as climate change and pandemics. Moreover, the concept of inclusiveness is becoming crucial, as highlighted during COVID, which showed that the most vulnerable population is the one living in sparsely and densely populated areas, where the level of social and physical services is often inadequate [1].

In this context, one possible response to this need is the development of monitoring and surveillance approaches [2]. The present contribution will focus on three aspects

The first is that resilience must be addressed as a whole, since services and networks are interconnected and interdependent (e.g. health system, transport, energy and water distribution, air quality, protection from extreme weather events, etc.). The main consequence of these interconnections is that the complete collapse of services (blackout) may become a realistic possibility.

The second aspect is that resilience can only be achieved in the presence of continuous and detailed monitoring of both the structures/infrastructure/services and the territory on which they insist, and that without such a monitoring it is impossible to correctly define the interventions to be carried out and their priorization.

The third aspect concerns the development of new monitoring systems based on Earth observation, positioning, navigation, and ICT technologies that exploit the citizen as a sensor and the so-called ‘non-sensors’, i.e. sensors that provide useful information for monitoring even if they are not designed for this purpose. All this ‘sensory’ data must be integrated to obtain a complete and reliable awareness of the scenario; hence the need to process and systematize large amounts of information that can only be processed by AI and HPC.

 

[1] V. Cuomo F. Soldovieri F. Bourquin, N. -E. El Faouzi, J. Dumoulin. The necessities and the perspectives of the monitoring/surveillance systems for multi-risk scenarios of urban areas including COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the TIEMS Annual Conference, 18-20 November 2020, Paris, France, ISBN: 978-94-90297-19-0, vol. 27

[2] Cuomo V., Soldovieri F., Ponzo F.C., Ditommaso R. (2018). A holistic approach to long-term SHM of transport infrastructures. The International Emergency Management Society (TIEMS) Newsletter 33, pp. 67-84.

How to cite: Soldovieri, F., Cuomo, V., and Dumoulin, J.: Monitoring for  sustainable and inclusive urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9193, 2025.

EGU25-10582 | Orals | GI1.3

Near real-time, water quality event monitoring in small rivers, in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of hydrodynamic events due to climate change. 

Lisa Cronin, Cian M. Taylor, Ciprian Briciu-Burghina, Fiona Regan, and Frances E. Lucy

Freshwater quality continues to decline despite the adoption of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) almost twenty five years ago with the recovery of water quality in Europe plateauing since the 2010s (Haase et al., 2010).  Pollution from diffuse sources, particularly from agriculture remains a key challenge to restoring water quality to at least ‘good status’ under the WFD (EEA, 2018) compounded by water quality declines due to increased frequency and intensity of hydrodynamic events (van Vliet et al., 2023). 

Assigning accurate WFD classes and detecting changing trends in water quality have been challenging where traditional low frequency monitoring approaches have been implemented (Skeffington et al., 2015).  Higher monitoring frequency and spatial coverage is required to effectively identify improvements in water quality (Westerhoff et al., 2022) particularly when detecting changes over shorter time periods (Mcdowell et al., 2012).  High frequency monitoring is required to identify temporal water quality changes linked to rainfall driven pollutant transfer from land to waters (Métadier and Bertrand-Krajewski, 2012) with monitoring over multiple events required to capture the variability in pollutant concentrations and pollutant loads across events (Kozak et al., 2019).  Furthermore, 50% of surface waterbodies in the EU are impacted by multiple pressures (EEA, 2018), with increased urbanisation requiring a more complex, multi-pollutant approach to assessing impacts on river quality (Strokal et al., 2021).

The aim of this research was to identify if rainfall driven transient pollution events were occurring at two monitoring stations in a river catchment, and if continuous instream monitoring of turbidity and other water quality parameters could be used to capture changes in water quality and potential instances of such events.  One of the objectives was to identify if continuous monitoring could create a site-specific water quality profile that could be used to identify early warning indicators of rainfall driven or other transient pollution events. 

Results from this study indicate that changes in water quality are happening during rainfall events and that turbidity alongside other parameters can be used to track such events, trigger alarms when a probable event is occurring and automatically activate more intense monitoring during these events.  The integrated monitoring approach adopted allows for the tracking of water quality changes across temporal and spatial scales for multiple pollutants and allows for temporal fluctuations, and variation in pollutant loads during hydrodynamic events to be determined. 

The significant advantages of this approach are it’s suitability for remote deployments with no requirement for permanent infrastructure, the use of site specific water quality profiles to identify potential water quality events at individual sites and to activate further monitoring if required, the ability to tailor the monitoring for pollutant screening or more specific pollutants of concern, and the cost effectiveness of moving the integrated monitoring station between different water bodies. 

How to cite: Cronin, L., Taylor, C. M., Briciu-Burghina, C., Regan, F., and Lucy, F. E.: Near real-time, water quality event monitoring in small rivers, in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of hydrodynamic events due to climate change., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10582, 2025.

EGU25-10725 | ECS | Posters on site | GI1.3

Advanced Ultrasound Techniques for Investigating Air-Water Two-Phase Flow: An Experimental Approach 

Juan Calderon, Max Dormann, Till Branß, Martin Balcewicz, Jochen Aberle, and Erik Saenger

The König-Project, funded by the German state, is a long-term project focused primarily on developing a multi-scale wave measurement laboratory to improve flow measurements in an industrial context. Part of this project researches the propagation of ultrasound waves inside a moving fluid. A wide variety of flow scenarios are considered, and new methods for ultrasonic flow measurement can be developed and optimized. One experimental scenario includes the determination of volume fraction and drop size distributions of air dispersed in water using ultrasonic waves.

For this purpose, a modular system is used as an initiative to integrate manufacturer-independent measurement components with open-source software for the acquisition and processing of ultrasound signals. The modular system equipment consists of a multichannel system, which allows the positioning of several transceivers to send and receive ultrasonic waves from different directions along the experimental zone of interest. The concentration of dispersed air in water will be determined by measuring the reduced transit time caused by the added compressibility of the air phase.

Characterizing multiphase flows using other techniques can be time-consuming and the accuracy can fall short as the complexity of the fluid grows. The use of ultrasound to characterize fluid flows has many advantages such: as a non-invasive method that doesn’t alter the fluid path, real-time data acquisition, and high-temporal resolution, it is cost-effective and can be used on opaque fluids. Therefore this technique is gaining more attention in several industrial applications, including oil and gas, hydrogen, and geothermal energy generation. The results of this investigation will be validated and compared with the output of a numerical simulation, in which the boundary conditions and the flow characteristics will be similar to the experimental setup.

 

How to cite: Calderon, J., Dormann, M., Branß, T., Balcewicz, M., Aberle, J., and Saenger, E.: Advanced Ultrasound Techniques for Investigating Air-Water Two-Phase Flow: An Experimental Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10725, 2025.

EGU25-10832 | ECS | Posters on site | GI1.3

Numerical Study to Determine Water-Air Dispersion with Ultrasound Waves 

Max Dormann, Juan Calderon, Claudia Finger, Martin Balcewicz, and Erik H. Saenger

The König-project is funded by the German state with the aim to develop a calibrated and virtual measurement laboratory to enhance methods based on ultrasound measurements that find application in the determination of flow velocity or particle movement. By comparing the results of controlled laboratory and real-world experiments with numerical simulations, the understanding of the interaction between ultrasonic waves and fluid flow is intended to be improved. The amount of scatterers within a fractured medium directly affects  the effective velocity of elastic waves. Thus we investigate, if the effects found in solid media can be transferred to fluids. We ran a series of numerical experiments, simulating ultrasound transmission measurements for multiple concentrations of bubbles of varying diameter dissolved in a stationary water layer. For the simulation of elastic wave propagation, we used a rotated staggered finite-difference scheme. We investigate the relation between the effective wave speed and the bubble concentration and compare those to results of laboratory experiments. Future research will then expand to moving fluid-gas mixtures.

How to cite: Dormann, M., Calderon, J., Finger, C., Balcewicz, M., and Saenger, E. H.: Numerical Study to Determine Water-Air Dispersion with Ultrasound Waves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10832, 2025.

EGU25-10867 | Posters on site | GI1.3

Radar Altimetry Reveals the Smoothness of the Surface: the Case of Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia 

Francesco De Biasio, Stefano Vignudelli, Ron Abileah, and Paula Pacheco Mollinedo

Salar de Uyuni is a salt desert in Bolivia, spanning approximately 10,000 km2. During the wet season a thin layer of rainfall water covers the salt flats, making its surface mirror-like and earning it the title of “the largest natural mirror in the world”. The surface reflects the sky like a mirror, and attracts tourists who document this effect only from its outer perimeter. No evidence is documented in the interior, accessible only during the dry season. The only frequent observations of the Salar surface are from satellites, particularly altimetric radars, which are specifically designed to measure topography. Originally developed to measure sea level [1], they have recently been used, with a different metrics, to describe how emitted radar pulses are reflected by the surface, measuring the intensity of the reflected echo, and thus the Radar Cross Section (RCS) of the surface [2]: higher RCSs correspond to smoother surfaces. RCS was initially estimated in [1] with a an approximate method. Later EUMETSAT shared a better estimate by solving the radar equation with satellite parameters that were previously unknown to us [3]. In this study we used Sentinel-3A and 3B RCS measurements over the Salar flats, along six ground tracks, to describe for the first time the evolution of the Salar surface smoothness in space and time. A field campaign (16th - 20th of February 2024) was also conducted to validate the interpretation of radar measurements during the Sentinel-3A overpass on the track 167. At the field site, in a water depth of 1.8 cm (horizontal wind 4.5-3.4 ms-1), we measured a null vertical surface displacement to within ±0.5 mm, which classifies the surface as electromagnetically smooth at the radar frequency. The RCS values near the site were around 120 dBsm, as expected for radar return from a smooth surface. Three peaks are observed on the statistical distribution of the RCS: 87 (dry), 101 (intermediate) and 120 dBsm (wet season).The wet season, characterized by values above 101 dBsm, begins in December, peaking from late January to early March. February thus ensures the highest chance to observe mirror-like effects. Rainfall climatology from Uyuni city meteorological station reflects such statistics. The spatial and temporal evolution of RCS over the Salar, however, do not describe this place like a uniform mirror at the radar frequency, and so it is unlikely to observe such effect at shorter wavelengths, contrary to what is believed in the literature. Finally, satellites can help tourism stakeholders in programming the most enjoyable experience for travellers.

[1] Vignudelli et all. 10.1007/s10712-019-09569-1

[2] Abileah and Vignudelli, 10.1016/J.Rse.2021.112580

[3] Dinardo and Lucas, EUM/RSP/TEN/23/1376566

How to cite: De Biasio, F., Vignudelli, S., Abileah, R., and Pacheco Mollinedo, P.: Radar Altimetry Reveals the Smoothness of the Surface: the Case of Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10867, 2025.

EGU25-12996 | Orals | GI1.3

Integrating Remote Sensing Technique with 3D Numerical Modelling for Enhanced Maintenance of Critical Infrastructure in Landslide-Prone Areas 

Diana Salciarini, Alice Vitaletti, Erica Cernuto, and Filippo Ubertini

Landslides, alongside earthquakes and floods, are among primary natural phenomena that are responsible for significant social and economic losses. Their impact poses an increasing threat worldwide, particularly in marginal and degraded contexts, affecting urban areas, infrastructures, environmental, historical, and cultural heritage, and, in severe cases, resulting in human casualties. In recent years, the number of infrastructure collapses or severe structural damages due to landslide movements has risen significantly, hindering the functionality of infrastructures, and highlighting the urgent need to deeply understand their interactions. Landslides can endanger roads, bridges, and railways, compromising the accessibility and inclusivity, and exacerbating social and economic exclusion in affected areas. Critical infrastructures are often located in challenging areas, where the susceptibility to landslides and natural hazards is significantly elevated. These sites demand advanced monitoring technologies to ensure infrastructure safety and mitigate the social and economic impacts of landslides. This study explores an innovative approach that integrates Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data with numerical Finite Element Modelling (FEM) to address these challenges. The proposed method was applied to a case study involving a partial interaction between a slow-kinematic landslide, documented in the Inventory of Landslide Phenomena in Italy (IFFI), and a bridge along a highway section in the Liguria Region. Leveraging high-resolution satellite-based data from the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS), the InSAR analysis provided spatial and temporal monitoring of ground displacements. Satellite remote sensing offers a wide spatial and temporal coverage over multiple regions, enabling for the detection of extensive or hard-to-access areas with millimetric precision in deformation velocity, ensuring high efficiency at a favourable cost-benefit ratio. However, while InSAR analysis can precisely measure ground motions, it lacks the ability to provide insights into the physical mechanisms under varying loading conditions. To address this limitation, FEM modelling was used to simulate the three-dimensional landslide mechanical behaviour under hydraulic loading, offering a deeper understanding of the slope stability and infrastructure deformations. InSAR data post-processing enabled the estimation of transverse and vertical components of the actual displacement vector, aligning with the observed landslide deformations and facilitating the numerical model validation. Simultaneously, FEM results highlighted significant displacements downstream of the landslide area, indicating a slope stability close to the limit equilibrium condition. Quantitative analysis also revealed relevant deformations at the base of bridge piers located within the landslide, caused by horizontal forces impacting the foundations. The integration of InSAR observations and FEM calculations demonstrated consistency in the identified movement, validating the efficacy of the combined method in identifying critical zones in landslide-prone regions. This study highlights how advanced remote sensing technologies, when coupled with numerical simulations, can enhance the monitoring and maintenance of critical infrastructure, particularly in marginal or extensive contexts. By identifying vulnerable areas and supporting the maintenance strategies, this methodology can contribute to hydrogeological risk management and promote inclusivity in regions where social and economic disparities exacerbate natural hazards impacts.

How to cite: Salciarini, D., Vitaletti, A., Cernuto, E., and Ubertini, F.: Integrating Remote Sensing Technique with 3D Numerical Modelling for Enhanced Maintenance of Critical Infrastructure in Landslide-Prone Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12996, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12996, 2025.

EGU25-13576 | Orals | GI1.3

An Approach for IoT-Based Smart Sensors Placement in Urban Water Networks Under Natural Hazards 

Bahram Malekmohammadi, Mehdi Rahimi, Reza Kerachian, Vijay P. Singh, Roger A. Falconer, Roohollah Noori, and Farhad Bahmanpouri

Natural hazards such as floods, storms, and earthquakes present significant threats to urban infrastructures, particularly water supply and distribution networks. These events can severely impact the quality and quantity of water resources, leading to serious consequences for public health and social security. Factors such as unplanned urban development and non-compliance with engineering standards further increase the vulnerability of these systems. Recent advancements in technologies like the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have enabled real-time monitoring and data analysis of these critical infrastructures. IoT-based smart sensors capture essential information, including flow rate, water quality, corrosion, leakage, and pipeline ruptures. These data are processed using machine learning and deep learning algorithms to identify anomalies. Such systems can enhance monitoring capabilities and support effective decision-making in crisis situations. This study explores key criteria for selecting optimal locations for sensor deployment. These criteria include connection points, infrastructure accessibility, water quality, natural hazard risks, and historical incident data. For example, evaluating the location of connection points and their impact on water flow and distribution can help identify optimal routes, reducing costs and response times. Easy access to infrastructure facilitates sensor installation and maintenance, improving system efficiency. Monitoring water quality at various points in the distribution network is also critical to identifying sensitive locations and ensuring water safety. Additionally, identifying areas prone to natural hazards helps prioritize vulnerable regions for monitoring and improve system resilience. Historical data on anomalies and past incidents provide patterns that highlight risk-prone areas and help refine monitoring strategies. Based on these criteria, a multi-criteria decision-making approach is applied to propose the most effective locations for sensor placement. This method suggests prioritizing locations that have the highest impact and accessibility. These recommendations aim to enhance system efficiency and improve response capabilities during emergencies.

Ketwords: Smart Infrastructures, Internet of Things, MCDM, Artificial Intelligence, Natural Hazards

How to cite: Malekmohammadi, B., Rahimi, M., Kerachian, R., Singh, V. P., Falconer, R. A., Noori, R., and Bahmanpouri, F.: An Approach for IoT-Based Smart Sensors Placement in Urban Water Networks Under Natural Hazards, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13576, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13576, 2025.

EGU25-17346 | Orals | GI1.3

Drone based radar technologies for wide rural areas resources exploration: potentialities and challenges 

Ilaria Catapano, Giuseppe Esposito, Gianluca Gennarelli, and Francesco Soldovieri

Rural areas, i.e. areas with a low population density and a small number of anthropogenic environments, represent a significant resource in the pursuit of a green and sustainable development of the European Community [1]. This development involves not only the ecological and balanced use of agriculture and forestry resources, but also policies devoted to environmental protection and monitoring. In this context, drone-based technologies offer valuable opportunities because they facilitate the effective and non-invasive surveillance and monitoring of wide and inaccessible places. These technologies, indeed, allow surface and subsurface explorations, while concomitantly reducing the financial and logistical demands associated with investigation missions.

The present contribution is focused on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) technology and the potential of UAV-GPR technological solutions in subsurface prospecting [2]. The discussion encompasses the collection and processing of data, emphasising the efficacy and sustainability of the technology. The contribution will address the development of guidelines for the design of the flight grid and the formulation of an effective imaging strategy that can account for deviations in motion relative to the nominal trajectory.

[1] Bizottság, E. (2024). The long-term vision for the EU’s rural areas: key achievements and ways forward. Report from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, Brüsszel, The long-term vision for the EU’s rural areas: key achievements and ways forward, Report from the Commission [Letöltve: 2024.06. 20.].

[2] Noviello, C., Gennarelli, G., Esposito, G., Ludeno, G., Fasano, G., Capozzoli, L., Soldovieri, F., & Catapano, I. (2022). An Overview on Down-Looking UAV-Based GPR Systems. Remote Sensing, 14(14), 3245. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14143245

Acknowledgements: The communication has been funded by EU - Next Generation EU Mission 4 “Education and Research” - Component 2: “From research to business” - Investment 3.1: “Fund for the realisation of an integrated system of research and innovation infrastructures” - Project IR0000032 – ITINERIS - Italian Integrated Environmental Research Infrastructures System - CUP B53C22002150006.

The authors acknowledge the Research Infrastructures participating in the ITINERIS project with their Italian nodes: ACTRIS, ANAEE, ATLaS, CeTRA, DANUBIUS, DISSCO, e-LTER, ECORD, EMPHASIS, EMSO, EUFAR ,Euro-Argo, EuroFleets, Geoscience, IBISBA, ICOS, JERICO, LIFEWATCH, LNS, N/R Laura Bassi, SIOS, SMINO.

How to cite: Catapano, I., Esposito, G., Gennarelli, G., and Soldovieri, F.: Drone based radar technologies for wide rural areas resources exploration: potentialities and challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17346, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17346, 2025.

EGU25-18196 | Posters on site | GI1.3

SEAWATCH Project: A year of advancements in Short-Range K-Band Radar for Coastal Monitoring 

Giovanni Ludeno, Pasquale Contestabile, Diego Vicinanza, Matteo Antuono, Caludio Lugni, Ilaria Catapano, Giuseppe Esposito, Carlo Noviello, Francesco Soldovieri, and Gianluca Gennarelli

Coastal regions are crucial for human settlements and economic development. However, their distinctive environmental characteristics, particularly in deltas, bays, and gulfs, render them highly vulnerable to threats such as erosion phenomena and pollution. The effective management of these areas depends on the accurate predictions of wave dynamics and their interactions with the shoreline and seabed. Reliable forecasts require numerical wave propagation models to be initialized with precise data and detailed bathymetric representations, and their accuracy depends on calibration operations using high-quality sea state observations.

Sea state data are typically collected through in-situ sensors, such as buoys and drifters, or remote sensing devices, including radars and video-monitoring systems [1]. Remote sensing technologies are often preferred due to their ability to provide both spatial and temporal information. Among these, ground-based radar systems like High-Frequency and X-band radars have proven effective in retrieving wave spectra and coastal sea state information. However, these systems face notable limitations, including difficulties in acquiring data near the shoreline. Additionally, they are bulky, heavy, and cumbersome, which complicates the deployment stage.

To address these challenges, the Italian PRIN-PNRR 2022 Project SEAWATCH—Short-Range K-Band Wave Radar System Close to the Coast—was launched on November 30, 2023. SEAWATCH focuses on developing an innovative, portable, short-range K-band radar prototype specifically designed for sea state monitoring in nearshore zones. Thanks to its compact size, lightweight design, and low power requirements, the system enables flexible, on-demand surveys, meeting critical safety and environmental management needs in harbors and coastal zones.

This communication outlines the key activities and initial results achieved during the first year of the SEAWATCH project. This last is organized into six milestones, supported by a robust collaboration between research units to ensure efficient knowledge sharing and steady progress. Preliminary here results shown highlight the radar prototype potential to overcome traditional limitations, offering enhanced spatial resolution and real-time monitoring capabilities near the coastline [2]-[4].

Future efforts will focus on further refining the radar prototype and validating its performance across diverse coastal environments.

 

References:

  • P. Neill, M. Reza Hashemi, Chapter 7 - In Situ and Remote Methods for Resource Characterization, Editor(s): Simon P. Neill, M. Reza Hashemi, In E-Business Solutions, Fundamentals of Ocean Renewable Energy, Academic Press, 2018, Pages 157-191.
  • Afolabi, L. A., et al. (2025). Underestimation of Wave Energy from ERA5 Datasets: Back Analysis and Calibration in the Central Tyrrhenian Sea. Energies, 18(1), 3.
  • Ludeno, G., Antuono, M., Soldovieri, F., & Gennarelli, G. (2024). A Feasibility Study of Nearshore Bathymetry Estimation via Short-Range K-Band MIMO Radar. Remote Sensing16 (2), 261.
  • Ludeno, G.; Esposito, G.; Lugni, C.; Soldovieri, F.; Gennarelli, G. A Deep Learning Strategy for the Retrieval of Sea Wave Spectra from Marine Radar Data.  Mar. Sci. Eng.202412, 1609.

 

Acknowledgment: This work was supported and funded by the European Union—NextGenerationEU PNRR Missione 4 “Istruzione e Ricerca”—Componente C2 Investimento 1.1, “Fondo per il Programma Nazionale di Ricerca e PRIN—SEAWATCH—Short-rangE K-bAnd Wave rAdar sysTem Close to tHe coast CUP B53D23023940001, and partially funded by the research project STRIVE—La scienza per le transizioni industriali, verde, energetica CUP B53C22010110001.

How to cite: Ludeno, G., Contestabile, P., Vicinanza, D., Antuono, M., Lugni, C., Catapano, I., Esposito, G., Noviello, C., Soldovieri, F., and Gennarelli, G.: SEAWATCH Project: A year of advancements in Short-Range K-Band Radar for Coastal Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18196, 2025.

EGU25-18356 | ECS | Posters on site | GI1.3

Applicability of cheap and lightweight magnetic sensors to geophysical exploration 

Filippo Accomando and Giovanni Florio

 In recent years, there was a notable technological advancement in geophysical sensors. In the case of magnetometry, several sensors were used having the common feature to be miniaturized and lightweight, thus idoneous to be carried by UAV in drone-borne magnetometric surveys. Moreover, such sensors have the common feature to be very cheap, so that it is in principle very easy to have the resources to combine two or three of them to form gradiometers. Nonetheless, another common feature is that their sensitivity ranges from 0.1 to about 200 nT, thus not comparable to that of alkali vapor, standard flux-gate or even proton magnetometers. However, their low-cost, small volume and weight remain as very interesting features of these sensors. In this communication, we want to explore the range of applications of small tri-axial magnetometers commonly used for attitude determination in several devices. We compare the results of ground-based surveys performed with conventional geophysical instruments with those obtained using these sensors.

 

How to cite: Accomando, F. and Florio, G.: Applicability of cheap and lightweight magnetic sensors to geophysical exploration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18356, 2025.

EGU25-18926 | ECS | Orals | GI1.3

Remote Sensing for Volcanic Eruptions and Earthquake Emergency Management Strategies in Developing Countries 

Tesfaye Tessema, Elias Lewi, and Fabio Tosti

Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes present significant challenges to developing countries, where limited monitoring infrastructure restricts effective risk mitigation efforts. Satellite remote sensing observations offer essential information, including surface deformation and thermal anomalies, for hazard assessment, early warning, and emergency response. These satellite-based observations enable comprehensive spatial and temporal monitoring, utilising both publicly available medium-resolution and commercial high-resolution datasets. Over the past decade, Sentinel radar and optical observations have been employed in areas with limited in-situ measurement capabilities[1]. Nonetheless, the utilisation of these datasets in developing countries is frequently hampered by insufficient computational and analytical resources.

This study examines the role of remote sensing in strengthening disaster risk management within resource-constrained contexts. We propose a collaborative framework that utilises satellite remote sensing data processing Centres in developed countries to assist developing nations in analysing pre-, during, and post-crisis events. Moreover, we advocate for engaging with space agencies to enhance satellite tasking during crisis observation, thereby improving our understanding of the event’s driving mechanisms. We highlight the critical role of remote sensing through a case study of recent seismic and volcanic activity in the Main Ethiopian Rift, specifically between the Fentale and Dofen volcanoes[2]. While national seismic and geodetic networks provide data on large and medium-magnitude earthquakes and significant deformations, they cannot detect low-magnitude precursory events or local deformations due to their proximity to volcanic centres. Furthermore, the installation of temporary monitoring facilities is often constrained by various limitations. Remote sensing bridges this gap by offering detailed data to support local research, inform timely decision-making, and strengthen crisis management. The crises have impacted under-resourced regions, the primary import-export corridor, and nearby urban centres, including Addis Ababa, where rapid urbanisation has raised safety concerns. This study underscores the necessity of integrated remote sensing solutions and international collaboration to enhance resilience and mitigate risks in disaster-prone areas.

Keywords: Sentinel, Main Ethiopian Rift, Fentale Volcano, Developing Countries, Emergency Management

 

Acknowledgements

The Authors would like to express their sincere thanks and gratitude to the following trusts, charities, organisations and individuals for their generosity in supporting this project: Lord Faringdon Charitable Trust, The Schroder Foundation, Cazenove Charitable Trust, Ernest Cook Trust, Sir Henry Keswick, Ian Bond, P. F. Charitable Trust, Prospect Investment Management Limited, The Adrian Swire Charitable Trust, The John Swire 1989 Charitable Trust, The Sackler Trust, The Tanlaw Foundation, and The Wyfold Charitable Trust.

 

References

[1] Tessema, T. T., Biggs, J., Lewi, E., & Ayele, A. (2020). Evidence for active rhyolitic dike intrusion in the northern Main Ethiopian Rift from the 2015 Fentale seismic swarm. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 21, e2019GC008550. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008550

[2] Derek Keir, Alessandro La Rosa, Carolina Pagli, et al. (2024). The 2024 Fentale Diking Episode in a Slow Extending Continental Rift. ESS Open Archive DOI: 10.22541/au.172979388.80164210/v1

How to cite: Tessema, T., Lewi, E., and Tosti, F.: Remote Sensing for Volcanic Eruptions and Earthquake Emergency Management Strategies in Developing Countries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18926, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18926, 2025.

EGU25-19565 | ECS | Orals | GI1.3

Innovative Geothermal Mining through Membrane Technologies 

Bruno Marco Inzillo, Sergio Santoro, Efrem Curcio, and Salvatore Straface

Critical raw materials (CRMs) are crucial for technological advancements and the global energy transition, especially in sectors such as renewable energy, electronics, and electric mobility. The sustainable and secure management of these materials is increasingly important. Geothermal springs represent a promising source of CRMs, offering valuable materials such as lithium, magnesium, strontium, and boron in addition to clean energy. Depending on where they come from geologically, geothermal springs can have lithium levels that are at least 10 times higher than seawater (0.18 mg/L) and about the same as salt lakes (0.04–3 g/L). The moderate Mg2+/Li+ molar ratio (~35) also shows that the two elements might be better separated, which would allow for more Mg2+ recovery. This study introduces a novel method for the recovery of CRMs from geothermal brines, combining Reverse Osmosis (RO), Nanofiltration (NF), and Membrane Distillation (MD) for efficient separation of water and valuable materials. The experiments are conducted using a synthetic laboratory-reproduced geothermal spring solution, which accurately replicates the pH, temperature, and ionic composition typical of natural geothermal waters. This experimental approach ensures that the results reflect real-world conditions, which is critical for evaluating the feasibility and scalability of the proposed method. The process begins with RO and NF to concentrate the brine and selectively separate multivalent ions (e.g., Mg) from monovalent ions (e.g., Li), leveraging differences in ionic valence. Following this, MD is applied to reduce brine volume and minimize thermal energy consumption, thereby optimizing both water recovery and the concentration of CRMs. A key innovation of this work is the exploitation of the elevated temperature of geothermal brines (> 35°C), which allows the use of MD with minimal external heating. This significantly reduces energy requirements and operational costs. The process minimizes Specific Thermal Energy Consumption (STEC), highlighting its efficiency and sustainability. This method not only enhances the recovery of lithium and magnesium from geothermal springs, but it also offers a cleaner, more sustainable approach to CRM extraction by utilizing renewable geothermal heat.

How to cite: Inzillo, B. M., Santoro, S., Curcio, E., and Straface, S.: Innovative Geothermal Mining through Membrane Technologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19565, 2025.

EGU25-19593 | ECS | Orals | GI1.3

Enhancing Hydrological Models with Remote Sensing: A Review of Products, Techniques, and Uncertainties 

Soufiane Taia, Yassine Ait Brahim, Mohammed Hssaisoune, Andrea Scozzari, and Bouabid El Mansouri

Distributed hydrological models are crucial for flood prediction, drought analysis, and water resource monitoring. They are typically calibrated using streamflow observations at the watershed outflow to determine the best parameter values within their common ranges. These models are then applied to analyze management and climate scenarios. However, accurately representing hydrological complexities is challenging due to limited knowledge, data availability, and imprecise measurements. Uncertainties in these models arise from parameters, model structure, calibration processes, and data, especially in regions with scarce data. Consequently, hydrological models require extensive hydro-meteorological data for calibration and validation, which can be costly and time-consuming. Recently, remote sensing techniques advanced hydrological modeling by providing regular sampling of essential variables like precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. However, thanks to technological advancements, numerous global and regional remote seeing products for the same variable have become freely available. These products vary in their algorithms, approaches, spatial and temporal resolutions, leading to diverse datasets for the same variable. Therefore, different products can perform differently in terms of parameter estimation, model robustness, and water balance predictions within the same area. However, each product may introduce biases or uncertainties, necessitating modelers to assess their performance and carefully choose the most suitable product for their study objectives. This research reviews commonly used remotely sensed products and the techniques and approaches for integrating them into distributed and semi-distributed hydrological models. Additionally, this review examines the uncertainties associated with different existing products and their performance within hydrological models.

How to cite: Taia, S., Ait Brahim, Y., Hssaisoune, M., Scozzari, A., and El Mansouri, B.: Enhancing Hydrological Models with Remote Sensing: A Review of Products, Techniques, and Uncertainties, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19593, 2025.

EGU25-19717 | ECS | Orals | GI1.3

Advancing Community-Based Water Quality Monitoring through Low-Cost Open-Source Optical Sensors and Data Integration 

Riccardo Cirrone, Amedeo Boldrini, Alessio Polvani, Xinyu Liu, and Steven Loiselle

To meet European (WFD) and International objectives (SDGs), there is a growing demand for water quality data with elevated spatial and temporal resolution. This has been an ongoing process, achieved by integrating data from governmental agencies with community-based monitoring initiatives (crowdsensing). Community-based monitoring has proven effective in addressing information gaps in managing and monitoring aquatic ecosystems, particularly in small rivers that often lack agency monitoring. However, there are still challenges regarding the reliability of such data. To fill this gap, there is an urgent need to develop affordable, reliable, and open-source instrumentation for water quality monitoring. These instruments should also comply with the recent European guidelines on the use of toxic substances in technology development.

This study presents the development and validation of a RoHS directive-compliant, open-source, low-cost optical sensor for detecting nitrates and phosphates in community-based monitoring initiatives. The sensor setup takes advantage of light-emitting diodes (LED) as light sources and a commercial ambient light detector. A second light sensor positioned at a 90° angle is employed for scattering correction. All components are managed by a Raspberry Pi Zero W microcomputer and housed in a custom 3D-printed poly(lactic acid) case. The device enables data collection, including GPS coordinates, with results stored offline or transmitted in real-time through Wi-Fi. The sensor’s analytical performance was evaluated in both laboratory and field conditions using reference materials and river samples. Results demonstrated accurate and repeatable measurements which were shown to increase resolution and precision compared to standard colorimetric methods. To promote accessibility and replication, the 3D-box CAD model, software, and usage guidelines are freely available online.

How to cite: Cirrone, R., Boldrini, A., Polvani, A., Liu, X., and Loiselle, S.: Advancing Community-Based Water Quality Monitoring through Low-Cost Open-Source Optical Sensors and Data Integration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19717, 2025.

EGU25-20136 | ECS | Posters on site | GI1.3

Towards the Integration of GPR and Magnetic Data for the Study of Urban and Rural Areas 

Francesco Mercogliano, Andrea Barone, Andrea Vitale, Giuseppe Esposito, Pietro Tizzani, and Ilaria Catapano

Among Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) methods, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and magnetic surveys are among the most widely used techniques for various applications, including geo-environmental, archaeological, geotechnical, and engineering purposes. Their success is attributed to factors such as cost-efficiency, versatility, and data collection capabilities. Additionally, both methods enable the detection of buried targets through their respective magnetic and electromagnetic properties. Integrating the results from these two methodologies can yield excellent outcomes for an in-depth analysis of the investigated environment and significantly enhance the detection capabilities for anomaly sources.

This study presents preliminary results on the integration of simulated GPR and magnetometric data for a representative scenario. Advanced imaging techniques, including the Depth from Extreme Points (DEXP) method for magnetic data and the microwave tomography approach for GPR data, were applied to produce an initial high-resolution visualization of the simulated target.

Building on these results, an arithmetic integration approach was used to merge the two datasets into a single image, enhancing the interpretation of the anomaly source, including its morphology, position, and depth.

These preliminary results demonstrate the potential of this workflow, based on the arithmetic integration of these datasets, to provide more accurate and detailed subsurface models. This approach paves the way for real-world applications, and further developments aim to refine it for broader geophysical purposes.

Acknowledgments: the project ITINERIS "Italian Integrated Environmental Research Infrastructure Systems" (IR0000032), which funded the research

How to cite: Mercogliano, F., Barone, A., Vitale, A., Esposito, G., Tizzani, P., and Catapano, I.: Towards the Integration of GPR and Magnetic Data for the Study of Urban and Rural Areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20136, 2025.

Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been proposed as an opportunistic source of precipitation data more than two decades ago. The first scientific studies demonstrating the potential of this ground-based remote sensing technique, in particular for areas around the world lacking dedicated rainfall observation networks, were published more than 15 years ago. Since then, a small but dedicated community of scientists and engineers working at universities, national meteorological services, engineering firms, mobile network operators and telecommunication equipment manufacturers has been making significant progress in turning this promise into a reality. In the meantime, numerous papers and reports have been published, conference presentations have been given and courses have been delivered. However, real-time access to high-resolution rainfall information from commercial microwave link networks over large continental areas is still a dream. How far have we come after more than 20 years of research and development? What does the future have in stall for the hydrological and meteorological communities? What should be done to turn this dream into a reality? Finally, which other hydrometeorologically relevant variables could potentially be retrieved using received signal levels from commercial microwave links? This sollicited presentation will attempt to provide some preliminary answers to these questions.

How to cite: Uijlenhoet, R.: Hydrometeorological Monitoring using Microwave Links from Cellular Communication Networks: Opportunities and Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20151, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20151, 2025.

EGU25-20810 | Posters on site | GI1.3

Building a Smart Dendrometer: Calibration and Field Deployment of a linear magnetic driven IoT Sensor for Real-Time Radial Growth Assessment 

Luca Belelli Marchesini, Jim Yates, Francesco Renzi, and Riccardo Valentini

Technological advancements in forest digitization have revolutionized real-time monitoring of tree ecophysiological processes. Direct measurement sensors, such as dendrometers, sap flow sensors, and spectrometers, enable high-resolution insights into tree function and growth. Here, we present a novel dendrometer designed to monitor radial stem increment using a Hall effect-based linear magnetic encoder system integrated into an IoT-enabled platform.

The dendrometer employs a commercially available linear magnetic encoder chip (AMS OSRAM GmbH) that operates without physical contact, ensuring low power consumption and long-term monitoring suitability. Key design components include a linear arm, sensor housing, rail, magnetic tape, and chip braces. Calibration was conducted using a stepper motor for linear movements at 0.1 mm increments, capturing 100 data points per step in four replicates. Regression analysis demonstrated high accuracy, with an R² of 0.99 and an RMSE of 0.05 mm. Temperature sensitivity tests (0–40°C) revealed minimal impact on sensor performance.

Field tests over one growing season involved four dendrometers installed on specimens of spruce (Picea abies (L.) H.Karst)) and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Seasonal radial growth patterns captured by the devices aligned closely with established static UMS D1 diameter belt measurements, demonstrating their capacity to detect both long-term trends and short-term diel stem oscillations.

This study highlights the potential of an IoT-driven dendrometer for capturing high-resolution radial growth data, offering insights into tree physiology and forest responses to environmental changes. Future development should focus on enhancing measurement precision through design optimization and improved access to power width modulation components in the AS3511 chip. This dendrometer represents a promising tool for advancing forest monitoring and understanding the impacts of climate change on tree growth dynamics.

How to cite: Belelli Marchesini, L., Yates, J., Renzi, F., and Valentini, R.: Building a Smart Dendrometer: Calibration and Field Deployment of a linear magnetic driven IoT Sensor for Real-Time Radial Growth Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20810, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20810, 2025.

EGU25-20884 | Posters on site | GI1.3

A Cost-Effective Automatic Chamber for Permanent CH4 and N2O Assessments inWetland Environments 

Milan Shay Kretzschmar, Maren Dubbert, Mathias Hoffmann, Milos Bielcik, Joana Bergmann, and David Dubbert

Wetland ecosystems exhibit large spatial and temporal variability in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, necessitating new technologies to ensure that they are well-monitored. Both manual and automated chamber-based approaches are currently costly and thus limited either in spatial or temporal resolution. Following on from Wang et al. (2022), we propose a new, inexpensive autochamber (TraceCatch) for long-term outdoor installation. Costs for one unit are less than 800€ in total, making it affordable and scalable for long-term ecological research, also in lower income countries such as the global south. The system is based on gathering gas samples over two weeks into four gas bags on a high-frequency sampling schedule. TraceCatch is controlled using an Arduino Uno, connected to a peristaltic pump for sampling of chamber headspace air as well as a number of sensors for air temperature and humidity (SHT-41), air pressure (BMP280), and CO2 concentrations (K30FR; 0–5,000 ppm, 30 ppm resolution). The latter are used to track the sealing condition of the chamber. We validated the system using defined injection amounts of technical gas (100% CO2). In addition, the system was applied to measure GHG fluxes from three wetland cores placed inside three ecotrons (UGT EcoLab flex, manufactured by Umwelt-Geräte-Technik GmbH, Germany). Gas samples were collected 4 times a day for 2 weeks during a 1 hour chamber closure time at t0, t20, t40, t60 and subsequently analyzed using gas chromatography (Nexis GC-2030, manufactured by Shimadzu Corporation, Japan). Average GHG fluxes determined over the two-week period were then compared to single measurements obtained using multi-gas sensors (LI-COR LI-7820 and LI-7810 analyzers, manufactured by LI-COR Biosciences, USA). If adopted, the system’s low cost, scale and robustness for permanent field deployments could help improve wetland GHG monitoring, offering a cost-efficient and practical alternative to traditional methods for global-scale biogeochemical cycle assessments.

How to cite: Kretzschmar, M. S., Dubbert, M., Hoffmann, M., Bielcik, M., Bergmann, J., and Dubbert, D.: A Cost-Effective Automatic Chamber for Permanent CH4 and N2O Assessments inWetland Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20884, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20884, 2025.

EGU25-21862 | Posters on site | GI1.3

TreeTalker Cyber: A Multi-Sensor, Low-Cost IoT Platform for Real-Time Monitoring of Tree Ecophysiology 

Francesco Renzi, Jim Yates, Valerio Coppola, Salvatore Riggi, Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, and Riccardo Valentini

The Earth is a complex ecosystem and each element is strictly linked with the others. It is often required to collect data on multiple aspects variously related to the main phenomenon in order to understand its mechanism. Moreover, the increasing use of machine learning algorithms requires the creation of new, reliable and extensive dataset in order to obtain significant results. The increasing demand for accurate, real-time monitoring of tree ecophysiological parameters presents challenges in developing affordable and efficient technologies, in particular in difficult environments such as mountains. TreeTalker Cyber, an innovative IoT platform, addresses these needs by integrating multiple sensors into a single, cost-effective device capable of measuring radial growth, radiation intensity below the canopy across 26 spectral bands, sap-flow, microclimate data, and trunk inclination. This presentation explores its capabilities, practical applications, and potential to transform forest monitoring globally. The use of a single platform to collect all the aforementioned parameter greatly reduces the cost of the equipment per collected parameter providing at the same time all main information required to evaluate the status of a tree, improving the maintenance of the network at the same time. The device is equipped with an NB-IoT or LoRaWAN transmission module to transmit collected data and make them available remotely. A comprehensive description of the platform and real field data are presented along with the technologies used for data transmission and storage with their strength and weaknesses. The OGC SensorThings API is also briefly described along with FROST (FRaunhofer Opensource SensorThings-Server) as an alternative to efficiently store IoT data and make them compliant with the FAIR principles, making them usable by both scientific and public communities. The creation of a dataset of trees ecophysiological parameters will help deepening the knowledge and understanding of forests around the world. TreeTalker Cyber lays the groundwork for advancing forestry research, providing fine-scale data as ground truth for forestry models and a starting point for future scenarios predictions, in particular when based on machine learning algorithms.

How to cite: Renzi, F., Yates, J., Coppola, V., Riggi, S., Chiriacò, M. V., and Valentini, R.: TreeTalker Cyber: A Multi-Sensor, Low-Cost IoT Platform for Real-Time Monitoring of Tree Ecophysiology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21862, 2025.

EGU25-3236 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Challenges and Opportunities with Soil Moisture Measurement in Ireland using Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing: Examples from an agriculture and a forest site 

Haleh Karbala Ali, Klara Finkele, Rafael Rosolem, Jonathan Evans, Martin Schrön, Brian Tobin, and Eve Daly

Field-scale Soil Moisture (SM) is an important variable to derive and study agriculture, plant growth, nutrient management, water quality and management, soil carbon sequestration, groundwater availability, flood forecasting, forest fire risk, land surface models and is an Essential Climate Variable (ECV). Field-scale SM estimates are vital due to small scale soil heterogeneities and can fill the gap between the traditional in-situ point measurements and products derived from remote sensing.

The Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) technology detects and counts naturally occurring fast neutrons (generated by cosmic-rays) after they are slowed primarily by hydrogen atoms in soil water and biomass. The CRNS can measure the root-zone SM at field-scale in a non-invasive way to an effective depth of 10 to 70 cm depending on soil water content and over a footprint of around 300 m diameter.

The AGMET group (Working Group of Applied Agricultural Meteorology in Ireland) instigated the Irish Soil Moisture Observation Network (ISMON) in 2021 and installed ten CRNS stations across Ireland, covering a range of soil types, with a view to estimating regional soil moisture conditions more accurately.

In this study, we present the SM estimates recorded since 2021 at two different ISMON sites in Ireland. In each of these sites, the CRNS sensor is co-located with arrays of Time-Domain Reflectometry (TDR) in-situ sensors. The first site is an agricultural grazing system on a mineral soil at the ISMON Farmer’s Journal farm site in Tullamore, County Offaly. The second site locates in a forest setting at the ISMON Dooray forest in County Laois. The CRNS measurements are calibrated based on soil sampling campaigns and the CRNS derived SM products are compared with TDR measurements for validation. The effect of the soil types and vegetation cover on the final SM estimates are investigated.

How to cite: Karbala Ali, H., Finkele, K., Rosolem, R., Evans, J., Schrön, M., Tobin, B., and Daly, E.: Challenges and Opportunities with Soil Moisture Measurement in Ireland using Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing: Examples from an agriculture and a forest site, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3236, 2025.

Lake George is a closed basin located 50 km north-east of Canberra, in southeastern Australia.  Historical records indicate that lake levels directly reflect precipitation; eight cycles of high water levels (up to 7m depth), interspersed with dry lake conditions, have occurred since 1820 CE. Over longer time scales, shoreline sediments also record phases of high water up to 14m depth in Lake George during the past 15000 years. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronologies show multiple high lake phases extending through the Holocene, with a dominant cyclic pattern of c. 2300 y.

Here we compare the Holocene lake-level data with astronomical and solar phenomena over the same time period. In particular, we calculate a cyclicity in the Grand Alignments (GAs) of the four Jovian planets of 4628 y and near GAs occurring at 2314 y intervals, the timing of which is coeval with the Lake George filling events. GAs have been observed to align with Grand Minima (GMs) (eg Maunder and Spoerer Minima) in solar activity (sunspots) which produce phases of high galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth. The timing of GMs is obtained by reconstruction of 10Be and 14C fluxes as recorded in terrestrial sediments.  These high fluxes also appear to show a temporal relationship with occurrence of the lake level highs. 

The recognition of cosmic ray flux episodes, rather than individual GMs, strongly indicates an association between observed solar activity and the high lake levels as preserved in the Lake George sediment archive. The time span 0-9.4ka contains four GM episodes and 13 OSL dated lake levels.  Of the latter, 69% date within the episodes of GM. The evidence suggests that precipitation in the Lake George basin has been associated with Jovian planet grand alignments and near GAs for at least the past 15000 years, and with phases of reduced solar and interplanetary magnetic field  strength and increased GCR flux in the vicinity of the Earth. 

The study supports the hypothesis that solar activity exhibits the well -known Hallstatt cycle periodicity (2300 yr).  Mechanisms for cause and effect remain subjects for further study.

How to cite: Asten, M., McCracken, K., and Fitzsimmons, K.: A 10ka Holocene record of cyclic precipitation in a closed catchment in SE Australia, associated with  episodes of solar Grand Minima and variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3395, 2025.

EGU25-3490 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Simulation of Cosmic Rays Trajectories and Neutron Transport generated on the Sun and observed on Earth 

Rocío Fuente, Carlo Luis Guerrero, Juan José Blanco, and Pablo Cerviño

The study of Cosmic Rays (CRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is key in analyzing the effect of solar activity on the terrestrial environment. Changes in the properties of the medium they pass through until their detection profoundly affect the intensity and the propagation direction of the CR flux.

Our starting point is that accurate measurements of CR and SEP flux can allow us to infer the conditions of the medium they pass through on their way to Earth, particularly the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere and the atmosphere. The development of a CR simulation code helps us perform such analysis, which may contribute to future predictions of solar events and prevent potential damage and disturbances in the global technological system and the human environment. Computational simulation of these phenomena allows us to interpret the data and obtain a vision that will facilitate, for instance, explaining the generation and transport of solar neutrons to Earth’s atmosphere and their interaction with the atmosphere and the detectors installed in different geographical locations.

The Space Research Group of the University of Alcala (SGR – UAH) has extensive experience in the design, construction, control and maintenance of neutron measurement systems, distributed in different regions of the world. Among these, we can mention: CALMA, ORCA, ICaRO and the EPD aboard on the Solar Orbiter Mission. These instruments generate a large amount of data that must be analyzed and modeled for understanding and study. It is at this point where computational simulation techniques and data management are crucial for the SGR-UAH group.

In this work we present the code we developed to study the trajectory and rigidity of charged particles entering Earth’s magnetic field. The simulation code TOROS (Trajectories of cOsmic Rays Observed Simulator) is based on numerically calculating the trajectories of charged particles and their interaction with Earth’s magnetic field before reaching the atmosphere. The code uses the magnetic dipole model and various approximations of Tsyganenko’s magnetic field model. Our goal is to use this simulation tool and the data it generates as input for well known simulation codes in the research field, such as GEANT-4 and CORSIKA, to validate, simulate and propose models based on experimental measurements from detectors of the SGR-UAH group and others worldwide. Comparing our results with other simulation codes is also part of the validation and testing process for the “TOROS” code.

How to cite: Fuente, R., Guerrero, C. L., Blanco, J. J., and Cerviño, P.: Simulation of Cosmic Rays Trajectories and Neutron Transport generated on the Sun and observed on Earth, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3490, 2025.

EGU25-4551 | Orals | GI4.4

Atmospheric effect on cosmic ray produced neutron: mini neutron monitor experimental results 

Juan Jose Blanco, Du Toit Strauss, Juan Ignacio García-Tejedor, África Barreto, Pablo Cerviño-Solana, David Arrazola, Alberto Regadío, Carlo Luis Guerrero Contreras, Pablo Gonzalez-Sicilia, David Moure, Victor Cabrera, Stepan Poluianov, and Óscar García-Población

Primary cosmic rays (PCRs) interact with atmospheric nuclei producing a myriad of secondary particles known as secondary cosmic rays (SCRs) that can be measured with ground-based detectors such as neutron monitors. Neutrons, protons, pions or muons are some of the particle species of these SCRs. Their flux is related to the kinetic energy of the PCRs and shows a strong dependence on the pressure level at the observation site reflecting their dependence on the amount of matter they have to pass through the atmosphere. In addition, the air column above the observation point evolves continuously introducing temporal changes in the SCR flux due to atmospheric conditions. This atmospheric effect is taken into account by the β factor, which is the exponent of the exponential relationship between the atmospheric pressure and the SCR count rate, being mostly neutrons in the case of neutron monitors. On the other hand, pressure shows an inverse dependence with height above sea level and this should be reflected in the neutron monitor count rate as it is measured at different altitude levels. Altitude surveys with a mobile neutron monitor are essential for understanding how the atmosphere affects SCR production and for cross-checking models describing the interaction between cosmic rays and atmospheric atoms. From October 2023 to September 2024, one such survey was carried out with a mini neutron monitor on the island of Tenerife. Four sites were visited at the altitudes of 20, 868, 2390 and 3355 meters above sea level, respectively. A control point to monitor solar activity during altitude sounding has been established at the 2390 m site where a standard 3NM64 neutron monitor has been operating since early 2023 at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory. The results of the experiment are presented and discussed and the dependence of the β factor on the multiplicity in the mini neutron monitor is noted, suggesting an energy dependence of the β factor.

How to cite: Blanco, J. J., Strauss, D. T., García-Tejedor, J. I., Barreto, Á., Cerviño-Solana, P., Arrazola, D., Regadío, A., Guerrero Contreras, C. L., Gonzalez-Sicilia, P., Moure, D., Cabrera, V., Poluianov, S., and García-Población, Ó.: Atmospheric effect on cosmic ray produced neutron: mini neutron monitor experimental results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4551, 2025.

EGU25-5935 | Posters on site | GI4.4

Site-specific incoming correction based on muons: a comparison with cosmic neutrons measurements at JUNG at OULU. 

Carlotta Bonvicini, Gianmarco Cracco, Barbara Biasuzzi, Stefano Gianessi, Marcello Lunardon, Mario Zara, Marco Zanetti, Luca Stevanato, and Enrico Gazzola

Cosmic Rays Neutron Sensing (CRNS) opened the possibility to measure water content in the environment by neutrons absorption overcoming the need of an artificial radioactive source of neutrons. While the exploitation of a naturally available source of radiation is a fundamental feature that allows the widespread deployment of permanent sensors on-field, it intruduces the need of monitoring the natural variation of the incoming radiation to correct the signal accordingly.

This so-called “incoming correction” for CRNS is usually obtained by referring to the public data provided by the Neutron Monitor DataBase (NMDB) observatories, with the Jungfraujoch (JUNG) often being the preferred one, due to its position in central Europe on the Swiss Alps. In fact, a critical factor affecting the incoming flux of cosmic rays at the ground is the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity parameter, which is site-specific with a strong dependence on the latitude. The site-specificity of the incoming correction, together with the need to rely on an external source of data, makes it a crucial topic for the CRNS community.

Finapp developed a patented detection technology with the feature of contextually detecting neutrons and muons. Muons are also generated by cosmic rays, but they are not backscattered by the soil like neutrons, which makes them suitable for monitoring the incoming flux itself. In order to provide a fair, site-specific comparison between the variations of muons counts by Finapp and cosmic neutrons counts by NMDB observatories, we installed a sensor at the NMDB-JUNG site in January 2024 and one at the NMDB-OULU site in Finland in October 2024. In this presentation we will report preliminary results of this project and its impact on CRNS applications.

We acknowledge the NMDB database (www.nmdb.eu), founded under the European Union's FP7 programme (contract no. 213007) for providing data. Jungfraujoch neutron monitor data were kindly provided by the Physikalisches Institut, University of Bern, Switzerland. Oulu neutron monitor data were kindly provided by the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory (https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi).

How to cite: Bonvicini, C., Cracco, G., Biasuzzi, B., Gianessi, S., Lunardon, M., Zara, M., Zanetti, M., Stevanato, L., and Gazzola, E.: Site-specific incoming correction based on muons: a comparison with cosmic neutrons measurements at JUNG at OULU., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5935, 2025.

EGU25-6803 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

A worst-case scenario? Exploring low-energy cosmic-ray neutron signal dynamics in wetlands 

Daniel Rasche, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Christian Wille, Markus Morgner, Andreas Güntner, and Theresa Blume

In the past 15 years, Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) has evolved to a useful tool for monitoring soil moisture at the field scale. Given the large measurement radius of up to 200 metres and measurement depth of 20 to 30 centimetres, it overcomes small-scale heterogeneities and allows to estimate soil moisture at spatio-temporal scales which are required to e.g., inform environmental models or validate soil moisture products from remote sensing data.

CRNS relies on the inverse relationship between soil moisture and observed low-energy cosmic-ray neutrons. Higher soil moisture results in lower neutron intensities but also a higher statistical noise in the data. In combination with the strongly non-linear relationship between soil moisture and observed low-energy cosmic-ray neutrons, this leads to larger uncertainties for soil moisture estimates when the soil moisture is high. Therefore, CRNS is expected to provide most accurate soil moisture estimates at monitoring sites with generally drier soils. Knowledge gaps remain with respect to the use of CRNS and the response of measured neutron intensities at observation sites with very wet soils and even partial water cover.

Against this background, we explore the signal dynamics of observed thermal and epithermal neutron intensities in a wetland in north-eastern Germany. Placing two identical neutron detectors at two different locations in the wetland and with different fractions of water cover in their respective measurement footprint allows for an investigation of the sensitivity of observed neutron signals to variations in partial water cover and soil moisture changes in water-free areas. Site-specific signal dynamics are modelled using neutron transport simulations conducted with the URANOS model code as well as simplified approaches to gain understanding on the influence of water cover and soil moisture on thermal and epithermal neutron signals. Ultimately, the possibility of deriving soil moisture information in water-free areas from observed neutron intensities is explored.

Our analyses shed additional light on the potential of CRNS for soil moisture estimation and its sensitive measurement footprint at extreme and unfavourable monitoring sites.

How to cite: Rasche, D., Sachs, T., Kalhori, A., Wille, C., Morgner, M., Güntner, A., and Blume, T.: A worst-case scenario? Exploring low-energy cosmic-ray neutron signal dynamics in wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6803, 2025.

EGU25-8780 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

The additive value of multi-scale remote sensing snow products for alpine above-snow Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing 

Nora Krebs, Paul Schattan, Valentina Premier, Abraham Mejia-Aguilar, Christine Fey, Magnus Bremer, and Martin Rutzinger

Alpine snow cover is shaped by complex topography, wind and insulation patterns, causing strong lateral heterogeneity in snow water equivalent (SWE) within only a few meters distance. While common SWE observation methods are confined to a footprint area of a few square meters, above-snow cosmic ray neutron sensing (CRNS) detects secondary cosmogenic neutrons that can be translated to SWE from an area of several hectares. The large footprint size decreases the observation bias that is caused by the choice of measurement location in conventional methods. However, the large footprint size also decreases the control on other signal contributing factors. Cosmogenic neutrons are sensitive to all sources of ambient hydrogen, including soil moisture and vegetation. Partial snow cover poses an additional challenge, due to the dissimilar and non-linear contribution of snow-free and snow-covered areas. The predominant development of mountain snowpack into partial snow cover highlights the intricacy of the CRNS signal in the alpine domain. In this study, we explore the complementary value of close-range, mid-range and far-range remote sensing snow products for the characterization of alpine CRNS snow monitoring sites in Austria and Italy. Joined observations of satellite-based fractional snow cover (FSC) products of Sentinel-1 and -2 and MODIS, at a spatial resolution of 20 m, 60 m and 500 m, respectively, provide quasi-daily observations of the snow cover state within the CRNS footprint area. This allows us to identify site-specific snow season parameters and dynamics in the CRNS signal. Further, air-borne and terrestrial topographic lidar (ALS and TLS) campaigns under snow-free and snow-covered conditions provide detailed FCS, snow height distribution and topographic information at a high spatial resolution. The good compatibility of these products is shown by the overall low deviation between lidar derived FSC and Sentinel FSC products of ~11% and between lidar and MODIS FSC of ~13%. Paired with complementary, manual snow density measurements for the computation of distributed SWE and the calibration of the neutron count to SWE conversion, these observations allow us to evaluate the complexity and dynamics of the seasonal CRNS signal at alpine sites. The similarity in spatial resolution between CRNS and satellite-based remote sensing products points towards its high potential for bridging the gap between ground- and space-based snow observations. Dedicated neutron simulations and further investigations are needed to gain a better understanding of factors that contribute to neutron count dynamics in alpine terrain.

How to cite: Krebs, N., Schattan, P., Premier, V., Mejia-Aguilar, A., Fey, C., Bremer, M., and Rutzinger, M.: The additive value of multi-scale remote sensing snow products for alpine above-snow Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8780, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8780, 2025.

Secondary cosmic rays (CRs) are produced when primary CRs interact with atmospheric atoms, leading 
to the formation of a cascade of secondary particles such as neutrons, pions, protons, and muons, with 
energies ranging from a few dozen meV to over 1 GeV. Neutrons produced during the extensive air 
shower spreading is characterized by a high elastic scattering cross section with hydrogen nuclei. This 
latter effectively moderates neutrons by slowing them down, and composes different media in the 
atmosphere, such as water vapor, ice and liquid vapor. 
Neutron spectrometry is based on this singular ability of hydrogen to moderate neutrons. In addition of 
interacting with the atmosphere, cosmic neutrons also interact with the Earth’s surface. Some of them 
are scattered back to the surface and are referred to as albedo neutrons. This phenomenon is crucial for 
studying soil moisture with a Bonner sphere spectrometer. Indeed, previous studies on both neutrons 
monitors and Bonner spheres spectrometers highlighted the impact of soil water content on neutron fluxes, 
validating the use of these methods to monitor soil moisture. However, it has been established that 
atmospheric water vapor induces a significant decrease in neutron counts that requires consideration. 
For this study, an experimental platform was deployed at the Atmospheric Research Center in 
Lannemezan, France. This platform includes instruments monitoring the atmospheric column 
hygrometry (precipitations, mixing ratio) and pressure -provided by a 60 m high mast- and soil moisture 
variations measured by refractometric probes in a 120 cm depth pit. In addition, a BSS extended to high 
neutron energies is constantly measuring the neutronic natural environment near the pit and mast since 
September 2023. The Bonner sphere spectrometer consists of three high-density polyethylene spheres 
(3, 5, and 8 inches) and two polyethylene spheres with inner high-density metal shells (8 and 9 inches), 
each equipped with a 2-inch proportional counter. This instrument provides a valuable information about 
the detected neutrons by allowing the reconstruction of the full spectrum, from meV to GeV. Thus, this 
approach enables the study of the impact of different hydrogen pools across the four main energy 
domains (thermal, epithermal, evaporation, and cascade neutrons). 
To complement these experimental data, a simulation work was necessary. The URANOS (Ultra Rapid 
Neutron Only Simulation) code has been a reference for several years in the field of simulating the 
transport of atmospheric neutrons in the atmosphere and soils. It is based on the application of the Monte 
Carlo method, and allows to calculate physical quantities such as energy distribution, spatial distribution, 
and neutron interaction processes. To meet more accurately the needs of this study, a module 
specifically designed for Bonner Spheres has been developed, providing key information on the impact 
of the atmosphere on neutron counts measured by each sphere.  
In this study, we apply a new methodology to a set of experimental time series in order to reduce the 
impact of the atmosphere on neutron counts from the Bonner sphere spectrometer. We will finally 
compare the results to the same uncorrected time series. 

How to cite: Tilhac, A., Hubert, G., Köhli, M., and Lohou, F.: Improving neutron spectrometry measurement methodology to better understand soil moisture variability: application to an area subject to strong seasonal and daily variations , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11397, 2025.

EGU25-11935 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Adverse conditions for cosmic-ray neutron sensing: high water content low bulk density – can we still infer soil moisture over the full moisture range? 

Peter Grosse, Lena Scheiffele, Sophia Dobkowitz, Katya Dimitrova-Petrova, Daniel Rasche, and Sascha Oswald

Near-surface soil moisture variation is an important variable in peatlands, controlling chemical processes and peat development or degradation. Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) provides an area average soil moisture over a support volume of > 150 m radius and down to 50 cm depth by relating the abundance of secondary fast neutrons above ground to soil moisture. However, standard calibration and weighting functions for CRNS were developed and tested for mineral soils with dry bulk densities above 1 g cm-³ and only up to 55 % of volumetric soil moisture. Peat soils, in contrast, are characterized by high organic matter content, low bulk densities, and high soil moisture when saturated. This makes peatlands a challenging environment for any soil moisture monitoring, including CRNS. In such adverse conditions, questions remain on the appropriate CRNS calibration approach and therefore the accurate determination of soil moisture.

This study presents lessons learned from operating a CRNS at a fen site with extensively used grassland in Northeast Germany (nature conservation area “Kremmener Luch”) for 3.5 years. The CRNS was complemented with point-scale soil moisture sensor profiles down to 1 m (FDR and TDR) in several locations of its footprint as well as groundwater level observations to identify periods of ponding that occur frequently at the site. Measuring soil moisture with the dielectric point-scale sensors showed challenges on its own. We increased the precision of point-scale data by a local soil specific calibration relating sensor permittivity to soil moisture. However, strong jumps and unreliable values remained, presumably due to swelling and shrinking of the organic-rich soil and loss of contact with the sensor. FDR and TDR time series showed large differences in absolute values as well as spatially different soil moisture regimes due do effects of microtopography. This is opposed to the CRNS, which senses average water content independent of small-scale heterogeneities. To derive a CRNS soil moisture time series we tested calibrating the CRNS using data from dedicated soil moisture sampling campaigns or the point-scale time series. We obtained unrealistically high CRNS-soil moisture regardless of which calibration function we chose – the standard “Desilets’ equation” or the recently proposed advanced “Universal Transport Solution”. Following the suggestion in previous CRNS studies conducted at peaty sites, we adjusted the parameters of the Desilets’ equation, which lead to a more realistic soil moisture range. However, the estimation of the CRNS integration depth with the standard procedures is very sensitive to the low bulk density of the organic soil and remains largely uncertain. This data set serves as a valuable testbed for extending the validity of existing calibration and weighting functions, and we will utilize neutron simulations to enhance our understanding of the vertical footprint of CRNS under conditions of low bulk density and high soil moisture.

Improved understanding and precision of CRNS soil moisture in peatlands can support peatland restoration efforts by providing insights into near-surface soil moisture variations allowing the evaluation of water level management success.

How to cite: Grosse, P., Scheiffele, L., Dobkowitz, S., Dimitrova-Petrova, K., Rasche, D., and Oswald, S.: Adverse conditions for cosmic-ray neutron sensing: high water content low bulk density – can we still infer soil moisture over the full moisture range?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11935, 2025.

EGU25-12050 | ECS | Orals | GI4.4

The Role of Aerosol Types in Mediating the Impact of Galactic Cosmic Rays on Climate Variability Over the Past Two Decades 

Faezeh Karimian Sarakhs, Fabio Madonna, and Salvatore De Pasquale

Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), high-energy particles originating from supernovas, have been hypothesized to influence Earth's climate by ionizing atmospheric aerosols and accelerating the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). This mechanism leads to increasing the cloud cover and enhances the cooling effect at the Earth’s surface. However, the magnitude of this natural forcing remains a subject of debate. This study proposes the use of multivariate linear regression to model monthly anomalies in near-surface air temperatures as a function of anomalies in GCR flux and other solar and climate variables, including sunspot number, geomagnetic indices, greenhouse gas concentrations (CO₂ and CH₄), cloud effective radius (CER), cloud liquid water, radiation, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) across different latitudes. Monthly data  collected over the past 20 years from a variety of instruments, surface-based and satellite on board, and networks monitoring the atmosphere and from three neutron monitoring stations at different latitudes:  in Hermanus (South Africa, low-latitude), Newark (USA, mid-latitude), and Oulu (Finland, high-latitude) have been considered, being the location of three neutron monitor stations. CER and AOD emerged as the most significant predictors across all stations. Incorporating GCR flux as a covariate for AOD improved model performance, with adjusted R-squared values increasing from 0.22 to 0.31 in Oulu, 0.37 to 0.52 in Newark, and 0.69 to 0.78 in Hermanus. Further analysis using ECMWF atmospheric composition reanalysis indicated that sea salt aerosols, particularly in the 5–20 µm size range, dominate across all locations, suggesting their potential role to the mechanisms enhanced by the GCRs ionization power, such as CCN formation and particle aggregation. A next step would be to investigate the impact of GCRs on cloud characteristics, such as cloud cover, cloud fraction and cloud top properties like pressure and temperature, to gain a clearer understanding of their influence on climate variability.

Keywords: galactic cosmic ray, near surface temperature, aerosol type, sea salt aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei, climate natural variability

How to cite: Karimian Sarakhs, F., Madonna, F., and De Pasquale, S.: The Role of Aerosol Types in Mediating the Impact of Galactic Cosmic Rays on Climate Variability Over the Past Two Decades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12050, 2025.

EGU25-12351 | Posters on site | GI4.4

Irrigation Management and Soil Moisture Monitoring with Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors: Lessons Learned and Future Opportunities 

Heye Bogena, Cosimo Brogi, Felix Nieberding, Andre Daccache, Lena Scheiffele, and Salar Saeed Dogar

Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) is attracting attention in irrigation management. CRNS can non-invasively and accurately measure soil moisture (SM) in the root zone at the field scale, thus addressing scale and logistics issues typical of point-scale sensor networks. CRNS are effectively used to inform large pivot irrigation systems but most agricultural landscapes in Europe and elsewhere consist of highly diversified and small fields. These are challenging for CRNS as the measured signal integrates an area of ~200m radius where multiple fields, soil heterogeneities, or variable amount of water applications can be found.

In this work, we present results from three case studies, and we develop and test solutions to improve CRNS accuracy in irrigated contexts. In 2023, a potato field in Leerodt (Germany) where strip irrigation is practiced was equipped with three CRNS (with moderators and thermal shielding), three meteorological stations, and six profile SM probes measuring at six different depths (up to 60 cm). In the same year, in Davis (California, USA), two CRNS with a 15 mm moderator, one of which also had a thermal shielding, were installed in an alfalfa field where flood irrigation is practiced. These were supported by meteorological measurements and point-scale TDR sensors. Similarly, a CRNS installed in a winter wheat field in Oehna (Germany) where pivot irrigation is applied. As the origin and propagation of neutrons detected by a CRNS cannot be inferred from the measured signal, we used the URANOS model to analyze neutron transport in the three case studies under varying soil moisture scenarios. To account for soil heterogeneity in the Leerodt study, we assessed the spatial distribution of soil characteristics by integrating soil sampling and Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) measurements in a machine-learning framework.

The Leerodt study showed that CRNS outperformed point-scale sensors, which were strongly affected by soil erosion in the top 10 cm. However, CRNS was unexpectedly sensitive only to nearby irrigation. Here, key insights on sub-footprint heterogeneity and soil roughness were gained through the analysis of URANOS simulations. In the Davis study, CRNS effectively monitored irrigation but also showed unexpected sensitivities to the irrigation of distant fields. Again, important insights were gained thanks to URANOS simulations. In the Oehna study, large quantitative differences between the CRNS and point-scale sensors were observed. However, the CRNS provided clear responses to irrigation that can outperform the information provided by the point-scale devices. Overall, the limitations of CRNS-based irrigation management in complex agricultural environments can generally be overcome through a synergetic use of measurements and modelling. Nonetheless, more efforts are needed to improve the understanding of the underlying processes and to standardize measurement procedures, which ultimately requires the involvement not only of researchers but also of manufacturers and stakeholders.

How to cite: Bogena, H., Brogi, C., Nieberding, F., Daccache, A., Scheiffele, L., and Dogar, S. S.: Irrigation Management and Soil Moisture Monitoring with Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors: Lessons Learned and Future Opportunities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12351, 2025.

EGU25-12782 | ECS | Orals | GI4.4

On the use of geophysics to support and connect soil sensors and cosmic ray neutron sensing: a case study highlighting the relevance of soil heterogeneity 

Luca Peruzzo, Mirko Pavoni, Viola Cioffi, Matteo Censini, Francesca Manca, Ilaria Barone, Matteo Verdone, Jacopo Boaga, and Giorgio Cassiani

Precision agriculture directly points at both spatial and temporal variabilities, to be mapped and monitored with relevant technologies. With regard to the subsurface, soil sensors remain the foremost driver of precision agriculture. These sensors provide high temporal resolution information on key soil variables, including volumetric water content. However, their limited representativeness and high sensitivity to local and installation factors are intrinsic and well known issues. Cosmic ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a newer technology that addresses these issues, with the water content information being integrated over a footprint of several tens of meters. Nonetheless, the integrated water information remains a one-dimensional time series. The interplay of different spatial scales of the measurements and unknown subsurface heterogeneity ultimately hinders the correct interpretation of the individual time series, and their discrepancies.

In this work we explore how geophysics-based soil heterogeneity supports the interpretation of time series from soil water sensors and cosmic ray neutron sensing. We present a case study from a vineyard in the Chianti region (Siena, Italy). We focus on the joint use of electrical resistivity tomography and frequency-domain electromagnetic induction. Two field campaigns, conducted in April and November 2024, highlight significant differences in both soil composition (clay content) and soil depth over the vineyard. Before the geophysical campaign, the soil water sensors were installed in a region with particularly deep and clayey soil. On the contrary, the cosmic ray was installed at the center of the vineyard and thus responds to regions with dominant water dynamics. The results show that the differences in water dynamics between the clay-rich area (with the soil sensors) and the surrounding areas coupled with the larger CRNS sensitivity to faster-draining regions lead to significant discrepancies. The geophysics-based spatial information qualitatively explains these discrepancies and supports CRNS numerical simulations (Uranos) that aim to provide a more quantitative understanding.

How to cite: Peruzzo, L., Pavoni, M., Cioffi, V., Censini, M., Manca, F., Barone, I., Verdone, M., Boaga, J., and Cassiani, G.: On the use of geophysics to support and connect soil sensors and cosmic ray neutron sensing: a case study highlighting the relevance of soil heterogeneity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12782, 2025.

Evaluating the effects of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and space weather throughout the atmosphere has motivated development of new instruments. A 1 x 1 x 0.8 cm3 and 30g microscintillator detector was flown on a meteorological radiosonde over the UK, reaching an altitude of 32 km. The flight was intended as a technology demonstrator for an improved version of the microscintillator that interfaces with the industry standard Vaisala RS41 radiosonde. GCR neutrons are regularly measured at the surface and assumed to be an indicator of ionisation above. However, neutrons are not ionising, and there are known discrepancies between surface neutrons and ionising radiation aloft. Our microscintillator is sensitive to ionising radiation with energies from 25keV-10MeV. Each pulse is recorded and pre-processed on the balloon into 17 energy channels for real-time radio transmission to a ground station.

The flight, on the afternoon of 9th July 2024, occurred during minimal solar and space weather activity, therefore the measurements are almost entirely from the cosmic ray background. The system also recorded count rates from two Geiger counters, both independently and as “coincidences” from simultaneous triggering from higher energy particles. As anticipated, the background count rate in the microscintillator and Geigers increased as the balloon ascended, reaching the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, in this case at 22 km. Peaks in the energy spectrum occurred at 1.8 MeV, likely to be due to the gamma rays produced through de-excitation of atmospheric nitrogen nuclei excited by secondary GCR neutrons. Detection of gamma rays from neutron interactions offers the possibility of a direct comparison to neutron monitors. There were also peaks at 300keV which may be from secondary electrons created by GCR. Unlike previous flights of this detector during space weather activity, no bremsstrahlung X rays at ~100keV were observed. The Geiger and coincidence counter results were consistent with the medium and high- energy channels from the microscintillator, respectively. This combination of altitude and energy resolution is highly unusual for such a small and light weight detector.

How to cite: Aplin, K. and Tabbett, J.: Cosmic ray energy spectrum in the atmosphere measured with a novel balloon-carried detector, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13265, 2025.

EGU25-13563 | Orals | GI4.4

Observation of the Forbush decrease during the May 2024 solar storms with different muon and neutron detectors in the high-latitude site of the Svalbard archipelago 

Ombretta Pinazza, Lasse Hertle, Francesco Riggi, and Martin Schrön and the EEE Collaboration

During the series of intense solar flares that occurred in May 2024, a remarkable Forbush decrease in the cosmic ray flux was observed on the Earth by particle detectors around the world. The Svalbard archipelago, which is located at polar latitudes, is particularly exposed to geomagnetic storms because the Earth's magnetic field provides a particularly weak shielding and is therefore a privileged observation point. In this contribution, we report an analysis of the Forbush decrease event using data from a unique combination of muon and neutron detectors installed in Ny-Ålesund, on Svalbard: three scintillator-based muon telescopes of the Extreme Energy Events (EEE) Project, 14 channels of a Bonner Sphere neutron Spectrometer (BSS), thermal and epithermal neutron sensors used for hydrological monitoring, and a high-energy neutron monitor located in Barentsburg and operated by the Polar Geophysical Institute. We found that most sensors showed significant responses and correlation during the event. The observed magnitude of the Forbush decrease depended on the detector’s energy sensitivity and was 10% for thermal neutrons, 8% for high-energy neutrons, and 3% for muons. The uncertainty of these results strongly depends on factors like the count rate, which ranged from 10 to 105 cph and resulted in low signal-to-noise ratio, particularly for the BSS. A detailed correlation analysis was carried out among the various time series originated from the different detectors in the “quiet” period (before the Forbush decrease) and during the Forbush event. Multi-particle and multi-energy observations provide an unprecedented view on the Earth’s exposure to cosmic rays during solar events.

How to cite: Pinazza, O., Hertle, L., Riggi, F., and Schrön, M. and the EEE Collaboration: Observation of the Forbush decrease during the May 2024 solar storms with different muon and neutron detectors in the high-latitude site of the Svalbard archipelago, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13563, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13563, 2025.

EGU25-15027 | Orals | GI4.4

Scaling Cosmic Ray Neutron Flux for Enhanced Environmental Monitoring 

Roland Baatz, Patrick Davies, Paolo Nasta, Paul Schattan, Emmanuel Quansah, Leonard Amekudzi, and Heye Bogena

Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS) are pivotal in measuring field-scale soil moisture, but uncertainties persist due to traditional methods of scaling parameter estimation, which often fail to consider site- and sensor-specific factors. This study integrates novel, data-driven approaches to refine scaling parameters for atmospheric pressure, air humidity and incoming cosmic ray intensity (β, ψ, ω) using measurement data. We demonstrate the strong potential for considerable improvents in the accuracy of CRNS-derived soil moisture estimates. Additionally, barometric correction in CRNS but also in neutron monitors is critical to account for local atmospheric density variations to minimize errors in soil moisture estimation and incoming cosmic ray intensity. Our analysis of CRNS and Neutron Monitor data from global stations reveals significant variability in barometric coefficients (β), influenced by geographical and atmospheric factors. The findings underscore the necessity for tailored scaling and correction methods to optimize CRNS applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate research. Enhanced parameter estimation reduced RMSE by up to 25%, demonstrating potential for improved environmental decision-making and modeling accuracy.

How to cite: Baatz, R., Davies, P., Nasta, P., Schattan, P., Quansah, E., Amekudzi, L., and Bogena, H.: Scaling Cosmic Ray Neutron Flux for Enhanced Environmental Monitoring, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15027, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15027, 2025.

EGU25-15979 | Orals | GI4.4

Validation of rail based CRNS-roving: underpinning the large-scale root zone soil moisture monitoring concept 

Daniel Altdorff, Solveig Landmark, Merlin Schiel, Sascha E. Oswald, Steffen Zacharias, Peter Dietrich, Hannes Mollenhauer, Sabine Attinger, and Martin Schrön

Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) is a critical parameter for various environmental, agricultural, and hydrological applications. The recently proposed rail based Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing monitoring method (Rail-CRNS) offers an innovative solution for soil moisture measurement by enabling continuous, large-scale RZSM measurements across extensive railway networks. By 2024, Germany established a fleet of five Rail-CRNS systems, covering up to hundreds of kilometers daily and marking thus a transformative step in soil moisture monitoring. Yet, questions remained regarding the reliability of Rail-CRNS data: did they accurately capture RZSM, or were they overly influenced by confounding factors such as land use and rail track conditions?

This study addresses these questions by analyzing 16 months of Rail-CRNS data collected along a pilot route in Rübeland, Low Harz Mountain, Germany. Time series from two stationary CRNS sites, located in forested and grassland areas, were compared with corresponding Rail-CRNS data segments. Additionally, soil moisture measurements from buried sensor nodes in the forest provided for parts of the period another independent reference dataset. The results demonstrated a strong correlation between the stationary CRNS measurements, the Rail-CRNS-derived RZSM values, and the soil moisture node data. This alignment indicates that Rail-CRNS data reliably captures not only spatial but also temporal variability in soil moisture. These findings provide robust support for the Rail-CRNS concept, emphasizing its potential to generate accurate and high-resolution RZSM data for regional and national-scale monitoring.

However, the pilot study was conducted under specific and well-monitored conditions, with frequent train passages and a well-instrumented route. Applying the Rail-CRNS method to longer, less-instrumented tracks, combined with higher train speed variability and fewer repeated passes, will likely introduce greater uncertainties. To address this, the deployment of a CRNS station cluster near railways was proposed. Such clusters would enable ongoing validation of Rail-CRNS data, ensuring their reliability across diverse environmental and operational conditions.

This study underscored the transformative potential of Rail-CRNS in overcoming the long-standing challenges of sparse and incomplete RZSM measurements. However, further instrumentation and research is planned to develop strategies for mitigating potential uncertainties in less-controlled environments. Integrating Rail-CRNS data with satellite-based products and RZSM estimates from hydrological modeling for example could further enhance the accuracy and applicability of soil moisture monitoring on a national scale.

How to cite: Altdorff, D., Landmark, S., Schiel, M., Oswald, S. E., Zacharias, S., Dietrich, P., Mollenhauer, H., Attinger, S., and Schrön, M.: Validation of rail based CRNS-roving: underpinning the large-scale root zone soil moisture monitoring concept, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15979, 2025.

EGU25-17007 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

A Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer (GRNS) for mapping lunar surface composition and water abundance on the SER3NE mission 

Rebecka Wahlén, Ramsey Al Jebali, Luis Teodoro, and Anja Kohfeldt

Selene’s Explorer for Roughness, Regolith, Resources, Neutrons and Elements (SER3NE) is a lunar orbiter mission designed to map the topmost composition of the lunar surface, including elemental composition and water abundance. Planned instruments include a Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer (GRNS) for elemental composition, including hydrogen indicating water, a Laser Altimeter (LA) for surface roughness and albedo observations, and a near-infrared spectrometer (LIPS) to determine water forms.

The GRNS detector is designed for both in situ utilization as well as remote sensing. It has a core of CLLBC and LaBr3 crystal scintillators in a chessboard pattern for high-resolution gamma-ray detection (30 keV-8MeV) and thermal to epithermal neutron sensitivity. Gd foil on CLLBC allows separation of thermal and epithermal neutrons, while LaB3 and CLLBC enable advanced neutron detection analysis. Encapsulated by EJ-248M plastic scintillators, the detector includes anti-coincidence detector for charged particle rejection. With gamma-ray spectroscopy, rock-forming elements as well as KREEP and trace elements can be detected in the shallow surface of the moon. The local count rates of thermal and epithermal neutrons allow for the analysis of the distribution of hydrogen on the lunar surface, as well as for estimation of neutron lifetime from the lunar orbit.

A demonstrator of the GRNS instrument has been successfully tested in the lab. A prototype of this lunar GRNS instrument will fly on the CENSSat-1 Bifrost CubeSat mission, scheduled for launch 2027.

In this presentation, the GRNS instrument concept will be presented, focusing on the detector design and suitability for elemental composition analysis on a lunar orbiter.

How to cite: Wahlén, R., Al Jebali, R., Teodoro, L., and Kohfeldt, A.: A Gamma Ray and Neutron Spectrometer (GRNS) for mapping lunar surface composition and water abundance on the SER3NE mission, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17007, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17007, 2025.

EGU25-17136 | ECS | Orals | GI4.4

Bonner Sphere Spectrometer at the Environmental Research Station Schneefernerhaus: Measuring Cosmic Radiation and Facilitating Data Accessibility 

Jonas Marach, Thorsten Klages, Vladimir Mares, Marcel Reginatto, Till Rehm, Werner Rühm, and Miroslav Zboril

In 2024, Germany’s national metrology institute, the Physikalisch-Technischne Bundesanstalt (PTB), signed a sponsorship agreement with the Operational Company of the Environmental Research Station Schneefernerhaus (Umweltforschungsstation, UFS) for the operation, maintenance and upgrade of the Bonner sphere-based neutron spectrometer located at the UFS. The UFS Schneefernerhaus was established in 1999 and is Germany’s highest research station at an altitude of 2650 meters, just below the summit of Mt. Zugspitze, where it houses a wide range of scientific instruments for observing weather, climate and climate change.

The Bonner Sphere Spectrometer (BSS) system at the UFS Schneefernerhaus has been in operation since 2005, thanks to the cooperation between the UFS Operational Company and the German Research Center for Environmental Health of the Helmholtz Center Munich. The system is used for continuous measurements of the neutron component of secondary cosmic radiation. With an extensive set of polyethylene sphere moderators and spheres with metal shells, the BSS at Schneefernerhaus can detect neutrons with energies ranging from 10-9 MeV to 103 MeV. Thanks to its spectrometric capabilities, the system can provide neutron energy spectra, which is an advantage over the classical neutron monitors used worldwide.

The Neutron Radiation Department of PTB is currently working on upgrading the data acquisition hardware and software, data storage, workflow and data analysis of the BSS system towards an automated and robust operation.

This presentation introduces methods for error correction and data preparation, incorporating historical data (years 2013 to 2024) from the former team of the Helmholtz Center Munich, and discusses possibilities for disseminating the data to scientific communities.

How to cite: Marach, J., Klages, T., Mares, V., Reginatto, M., Rehm, T., Rühm, W., and Zboril, M.: Bonner Sphere Spectrometer at the Environmental Research Station Schneefernerhaus: Measuring Cosmic Radiation and Facilitating Data Accessibility, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17136, 2025.

EGU25-18234 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

neptoon: An extensible software package for processing CRNS data 

Daniel Power, Steffen Zacharias, Fredo Erxleben, Rafael Rosolem, and Martin Schrön

The increasing adoption of Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensors (CRNS), across research infrastructures and beyond, necessitates standardised and flexible processing tools. Such tools should be accessible to new users with little experience in CRNS, as well as support researchers investigating novel processing methodologies and developing new theoretical frameworks. Here we present neptoon; an open-source python tool, using a modular, expandable framework, to ensure long term viability and software sustainability. Building from previous CRNS processing tools, we will present the overall architecture of neptoon and how it implements established processing methodologies while maintaining extensibility for emerging approaches. We will demonstrate streamlined data processing workflows through our configuration system and graphical user interface. We will show how neptoon supports replicability when processing sensors, supporting rapid updates when needed. Furthermore, we will showcase how neptoon enables systematic testing of new processing theories for CRNS, such as alternative correction methods, leading to a software that supports both operational deployment and methodological research. Lastly we will outline our roadmap for neptoon, explaining features which will be implemented in the near future. By creating a fully documented software toolset for processing, we aim to support the growing community of CRNS users and researchers.

How to cite: Power, D., Zacharias, S., Erxleben, F., Rosolem, R., and Schrön, M.: neptoon: An extensible software package for processing CRNS data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18234, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18234, 2025.

EGU25-18374 | Posters on site | GI4.4

Approaches and Challenges of the Neutron Monitor based Incoming Flux Correction for Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing 

Lasse Hertle, Steffen Zacharias, Nicholas Larsen, Daniel Rasche, and Martin Schrön

Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) is a technique to measure water content, for example soil moisture, on the hectare scale through the measurement of epithermal neutrons. The neutrons are results of  particle showers in the earth's atmosphere caused by cosmic rays impinging on it. The abundance and global distribution of neutrons is changed in time through different factors. On the largest scale, the heliosphere and therefore the solar cycle greatly affect the amount of galactic cosmic rays that are able to reach earth. Large solar events, such as Forbush decreases, also cause rapid changes in the cosmic ray flux. The aim of any incoming neutron flux correction method is ultimately to account for these heliospheric changes. Any neutron monitor based correction method has to overcome the uneven distribution of neutrons across latitudes, due to the earth's magnetic field.  There have been multiple, neutron monitor based, approaches developed, all of them based upon the assumption of linearity between the CRNS and the neutron monitor measurement. This assumption is challenged by multiple factors, most importantly geomagnetic and local conditions. Understanding the challenges and limitations of the linearity assumption is crucial to reliably correct CRNS measurements and produce a robust soil moisture product. Multiple correction methods have been evaluated and compared, with consideration towards the impact of different geomagnetic and local conditions. 

How to cite: Hertle, L., Zacharias, S., Larsen, N., Rasche, D., and Schrön, M.: Approaches and Challenges of the Neutron Monitor based Incoming Flux Correction for Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18374, 2025.

EGU25-19126 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Reduced ERA-I forecasting skill during Forbush decreases 

Jacob Svensmark

Previously, week-long Forbush decreases of the atmospheric cosmic ray flux have been found to correlate with terrestrial cloud cover changes. Discussions are ongoing on whether this correlation is caused by a physical mechanism or simply a result of unlikely weather fluctuations. To gain further insight on this matter, we consider the skill of weather forecasts during Forbush decreases using data from the ERA-INTERIM forecasting system. If the cloud changes during Forbush decreases are of meteorological origin, then they should be forecasted by ERA-INTERIM at a skill comparable to any other time. On the contrary, if the cosmic ray flux is coupled to clouds, forecasts should be performing worse during Forbush decreases, since ERA-interim is insensitive to cosmic rays. We find, that ERA-INTERIM was significantly worse at predicting the total cloud cover in times of large Forbush decreases compared to outside of them, supporting the hypothesis that cosmic rays influence terrestrial cloud formation.

How to cite: Svensmark, J.: Reduced ERA-I forecasting skill during Forbush decreases, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19126, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19126, 2025.

EGU25-19534 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Mars Radiation Environment and Water-ice Prospecting through a Distributed Swarm of Tumbleweed Rovers  

Mário de Pinto Balsemão, Abhimanyu Shanbhag, James Kingsnorth, Gergana Bounova, Luka Pikulić, Cristina Moisuc, Daan Molhuijsen, and Julian Rothenbuchner

The Tumbleweed mission aims to revolutionize Mars exploration by leveraging the unique capabilities of wind-driven, spheroidal rovers. The use of modular design strategies, off-the-shelf components, and mass production will significantly reduce costs, making Mars exploration more accessible. Designed for rapid and extensive surface exploration, Tumbleweed rovers offer an affordable and efficient method for gathering crucial data across large areas of the Martian terrain. By deploying a swarm of more than 90 rovers equipped with various scientific instruments, this mission will significantly enhance our understanding of Mars, facilitating future human exploration and settlement.

The search for water in various forms is the common thread that binds the science goals of Mars exploration missions over the past few decades. For large scale water extraction (aimed at producing propellant and potable water in sizable quantities), a coordinated prospecting and characterisation campaign is required to arrive at maps of exploitable reserves.

Unfortunately, current architectures rely primarily on large, complex, and expensive rovers. While these platforms provide invaluable data, they are limited in their spatio-temporal coverage. Consequently, optimal Exploration Zones (EZs) for human exploration of Mars are yet to be defined.

Based on current priorities in Mars science and exploration, as well as the technical constraints of the Tumbleweed rover, a preliminary list of instruments was drafted. Exploring the synergies amongst these instruments, we arrived at the opportunity to use radiation-focused instrumentation to simultaneously achieve high-resolution mapping of hydrogen in the near-surface environment. Measuring the flux of epithermal neutron emissions is one of the best approaches towards estimating water equivalent hydrogen (WEH) abundance. Thermal and epithermal neutron measurements from instruments such as FREND, HEND and DAN have indicated the presence of WEH in the near-surface. This would represent the prime target for ISRU operations in the near future. However, the resolution of existing orbital maps of water ice is insufficient to direct and execute robotic/human operations on ground. 

This suite of radiation detection instruments will be consolidated in the future through the addition of a miniaturized Gamma Ray Spectrometer, providing the ability to perform elemental mapping along the rover traverse. Beyond neutron spectrometers, patch permittivity sensors may also be deployed on the Tumbleweed Rovers, enabling cross-confirmation of WEH mapping.

This instrumentation and our mission architecture enable high-resolution mapping of Martian environments, combining radiation scouting with WEH prospecting, thus identifying low-radiation and high-WEH regions ideal for crewed missions.

To aid further maturation and design of the mission, a conceptual study is proposed herein. Starting from a simulation of the individual rover’s trajectories on the surface of Mars, we shall geospatially compute the probable intersections with the already identified EZs on Mars. Based on these intersections we can infer thresholds for the controlled navigation of individual rovers (assessing intersections per trajectory buffer size) and classify candidate EZs according to known topography and available WEH mapping. This classification would enable more precise GEANT4 modelling of individual rovers and their instrumentation, resulting in probable neutron counts and dose/flux readings, leading to mission-specific requirements for our spacecrafts and their payloads.

How to cite: de Pinto Balsemão, M., Shanbhag, A., Kingsnorth, J., Bounova, G., Pikulić, L., Moisuc, C., Molhuijsen, D., and Rothenbuchner, J.: Mars Radiation Environment and Water-ice Prospecting through a Distributed Swarm of Tumbleweed Rovers , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19534, 2025.

EGU25-19713 | ECS | Posters on site | GI4.4

Understanding the influence of landscape heterogeneities on the signal of cosmic-ray neutron sensors by means of site-specific neutron transport simulation 

Jannis Weimar, Markus Köhli, Martin Schrön, Sascha Oswald, and Miroslav Zboril

Monitoring soil moisture is a challenging task due to its complex spatial patterns. In recent years, cosmic-ray neutron sensing has gained popularity for its ability to provide integral measurements over a few hectares horizontally and a few decimeters vertically, covering a representative volume for many research questions in various landscapes. However, interpreting signals using averaging methods becomes increasingly difficult as the heterogeneity of the observable increases.
As part of the SoMMet project, three field sites in Germany and Italy equipped with cosmic-ray neutron sensors are analyzed in detail using the Monte Carlo code URANOS. The virtual representation of these sites in the code allows for removing and adding structures. Thereby, all features of the landscape of the three different sites can be examined separately with respect to their impact on the local neutron field. These include general landscape heterogeneities, buildings, land use, and biomass. While this study focuses on three specific, although relatively common, site setups, it also offers general insights that can enhance the understanding of signal and footprint dynamics at other locations.

How to cite: Weimar, J., Köhli, M., Schrön, M., Oswald, S., and Zboril, M.: Understanding the influence of landscape heterogeneities on the signal of cosmic-ray neutron sensors by means of site-specific neutron transport simulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19713, 2025.

The Himalayan rivers of India exhibit certain unique characteristics as they undergo large seasonal fluctuations in their water regime. During the monsoon months, these rivers experience a soaring flow of water due to excessive rainfall and the melting of glaciers, often resulting in recurring floods in the plains. In addition to high flows, these rivers carry heavy sediment loads, which make the riverbanks vulnerable to erosion. The Brahmaputra, one of the largest rivers in India, is often associated with devastating floods in the state of Assam. Since the great earthquake of 1950, which struck the Upper Brahmaputra Valley in Assam, riverbank erosion has become a scourge for the land and its people. After the earthquake, the problems of flooding and riverbank erosion have intensified in the valley. Majuli, the largest and one of the most populous freshwater riverine islands in the world, as well as a proposed UNESCO cultural heritage site, has experienced significant morphological changes due to the continuous shifting of the river channels of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries. Thus, the study aims to understand the morphological dynamics of the Brahmaputra River over the last five decades by employing statistical indices such as the Plan Form Index (PFI), Braiding Index (B.I.), and Migration Index (M.I.). The PFI values indicate the degree of braiding in a river, with values below 4 indicating a highly braided channel, between 4 and 19 indicating a moderately braided channel, and above 19 indicating a low braided channel. The study shows that the PFI value for the Brahmaputra near Majuli decreased from 7.73 in 1975 to 4.29 in 2000, and further declined to 3.54 in 2024, indicating an increasingly braided nature. Similarly, Brice’s Braiding Index (B.I.) reflects a similar trend, rising from 4.31 in 1975 to 5.22 in 2020, and further to 5.49 in 2024. The Migration Index (M.I.) of the river increased from 0.885 for the period 1975–2000 to 0.909 for the period 2000–2024, highlighting a highly unstable river with frequent bank failures. It is important to note that as per the Census of India, the total area of Majuli Island was 1,246 km² in 1951. However, the present study indicates a significant reduction in the island's area, measuring 629 km² in 1975, 601 km² in 2000, and 487 km² in 2024 respectively. This indicates a loss of nearly two-thirds of the island's original area, with 107 out of 210 cadastral villages being engulfed by the river over the last 70 years. Thus, the study highlights the urgent need for both structural and non-structural measures to protect Majuli Island from further erosion by the Brahmaputra and its tributaries.

Keywords: River Brahmaputra, Morphology, Majuli Island, Erosion, Plan Form Index, Braiding Index, Migration Index

How to cite: Roy, N.: Fluvial Morphodynamics of the River Brahmaputra and its Implications on the Majuli Island, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-815, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-815, 2025.

EGU25-1366 | PICO | GM3.3

Managing geomorphological drivers of river hazards in the rapidly aggrading Waiho River, Franz Josef / Waiau, Aotearoa New Zealand 

Ian Fuller, Rose Beagley, Tim Davies, Matthew Gardner, Mark Healey, and Gary Williams

Aggradation in the Waiho River has been the subject of research for over 40 years (e.g. Mosley, 1983; Hoey, 1990; Davies, 1997; Davies et al., 2003). Where the Waiho emerges from confinement at the Southern Alps rangefront it has formed a large alluvial fan. Development on this fan in the form of the Franz Josef / Waiau tourist township, State Highway 6 and its bridges, and pastoral agriculture has resulted in artificial confinement of the active portion of this fan, principally using stopbanks (flood walls / artificial levees). Unable to distribute its bedload across the fan surface, the river has responded by aggrading its bed. In turn, stopbanks have been raised regularly, perching the river, which now sits ~2 m above the level of the township, elevating flood risk. Application of Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) using LiDAR surveys acquired in 2016, 2019, 2023, January 2024 and July 2024 demonstrate a remarkable rate of aggradation equating to 0.2 m yr-1 in the vicinity of the township, that appears to have been ongoing since about 1960. A combination of recent storms and glacier retreat appears to have increased sediment delivery in the Waiho proximal to the Franz Josef Glacier. GCD analysis reveals that sediment is being pulsed through to the Waiho Fan through this relatively confined proglacial reach. On the fan, an avulsion has cut through to the adjacent Tatare River to the north, which is now rapidly infilling with bed calibre material. As the avulsion incises, more flow is captured and a full switching of the Waiho into the Tatare is a possibility.

The situation is complicated by the high probability (75% in 50 years) of an extreme earthquake in the area, that will damage stopbanks and severely aggravate aggradation over years to decades. This event is so likely that all but short-term flood risk management strategies must consider it. These significant flood and avulsion hazards pose extreme risk to life and property in the vicinity of Franz Josef / Waiau and are in urgent need of mitigation. The current management practice of raising stopbanks and repairing rock-lined edges is setting the system up for catastrophic failure given the rates of change we observe.  A ten-year programme allowing for managed retreat and release of the Waiho to the south is proposed. It is anticipated that this will reduce the rate of current riverbed aggradation and allow a staged relocation of the township in the longer term.

 

References

Davies, T. (1997). Long-term management of facilities on an active alluvial fan - Waiho River Fan, Westland, New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology (NZ), 36, 127–145.

Davies, T., McSaveney, M., Clarkson, P. (2003). Anthropic aggradation of the Waiho River, Westland, New Zealand: microscale modelling. Earth Surface Processes & Landforms, 28, 209-218.

Hoey, T. (1990). Aggradation in the Waiho River. Final Report to the West Coast Regional Council, 23p.

Mosley, M.P. (1983). Response of the Waiho River to variations in Franz Josef Glacier, Westland, New Zealand. Internal Report WS 858, Hydrology Centre, Christchurch, NZ, 17p.

How to cite: Fuller, I., Beagley, R., Davies, T., Gardner, M., Healey, M., and Williams, G.: Managing geomorphological drivers of river hazards in the rapidly aggrading Waiho River, Franz Josef / Waiau, Aotearoa New Zealand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1366, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1366, 2025.

EGU25-1860 | ECS | PICO | GM3.3

Climate and geomorphic-driven river floods and related impacts on hydropower in High Mountain Asia 

Dongfeng Li, Jinren Ni, Xixi Lu, Des Walling, Stuart Lane, Jakob Steiner, Walter Immerzeel, and Tobias Bolch

High Mountain Asia (HMA) faces significant hydrological and geomorphic challenges due to global warming and cryosphere loss, which are altering water supply patterns and the frequency of flood hazards such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslide-dammed lake outburst floods (LLOFs). These floods have historically caused significant damage, destroying many hydropower projects (HPPs), including major events in 1981, 1985, 2016, and 2018. While reservoirs with large storage capacities can mitigate some impacts, many planned and existing HPPs remain vulnerable. Here we compile a new flood database between 1950 and 2023 in HMA. A total of 1,015 flood events are documented, including 261 pluvial floods (PFs), 220 snowmelt-induced floods (SFs), 427 GLOFs, and 107 LLOFs. The changing flood frequency is linked to warming temperatures, rising precipitation, and cascading interactions with glaciers, permafrost, and human exposure.

Floods threaten infrastructure, disrupt energy production, and mobilize sediments that degrade reservoirs and turbines, intensifying risks under ongoing climate change. However, strategic design, maintenance, and sediment management, supported by improved monitoring and early warning systems, can enhance the resilience of hydropower projects. Policymakers and stakeholders must urgently adopt sustainable strategies to address these flood hazards, ensuring the viability of hydropower and contributing to sustainable development in this critical region.

How to cite: Li, D., Ni, J., Lu, X., Walling, D., Lane, S., Steiner, J., Immerzeel, W., and Bolch, T.: Climate and geomorphic-driven river floods and related impacts on hydropower in High Mountain Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1860, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1860, 2025.

The Mekong River–Tonle Sap Lake interaction system plays a vital role in supporting livelihoods in the region through the reverse flow phenomenon. During the flood season, a substantial volume of water flows from the Mekong mainstream into the Tonle Sap Lake floodplain, which is then gradually drained during the dry season to provide additional water to the Vietnamese Delta. This interaction is critical for fisheries and agriculture, benefiting approximately 20 million residents across the Tonle Sap Lake and Mekong Delta regions.

However, since 2010, extensive dam construction in the upper Mekong River and local sand mining activities have significantly altered the flow regime, weakening the interaction in two key aspects: the duration of reverse flow and the volume of nutrient-sediment water entering the lake. Utilizing an integrated modeling framework comprising hydrodynamic and hydrological models, this study found that while the Tonle Sap Lake system demonstrated resilience to climate change between 2010 and 2024, the influence of human interventions has been profound.

Our results indicate that the average annual reverse flow volume, which was approximately 43 km³ during the historical period (1980–2000), has declined by about 25% to an average of 30 km³ in recent years. Additionally, the duration of the reverse flow has shortened by approximately 20 days. These changes underscore the dominant role of anthropogenic stressors in disrupting the Mekong River–Tonle Sap Lake system.

To sustain this critical interaction, urgent measures are needed to regulate local sand mining and foster transboundary collaboration with upstream states regarding dam operations and future reservoir construction. Such actions are essential to maintaining flow regimes that approximate natural conditions and securing the livelihoods of millions in the region.

How to cite: Morovati, K. and Tian, F.: Impacts of Climate Change, Sand Mining, and Hydropower Dams on the Mekong River–Tonle Sap Lake Interaction System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2407, 2025.

Vegetation effects are particularly significant in dryland region channels, where flooding is mainly as flash floods, because large vegetation commonly grows within the channels. Measurements at long-term study sites in ephemeral channels of southeast Spain show that such vegetation can be highly resilient to a range of flows.  However, extreme events, such as occurred in September 2012, can effectively zero the vegetation in the channels and valley floor.  The effects of the vegetation in mature pre-flood and in sparse post-flood state on the hydraulics of flow and on flood levels have been measured in the field and calculated using a range of assumptions on roughness effects.  The vegetation state is shown to have large effects on flow velocities and on flood stage and inundation extent. Since that extreme event the recovery of vegetation has been measured annually.  Differential rates of recovery are evident between sites and within sites, varying with spatial position in relation to the main channel. In some locations vegetation has regrown to pre-2012 states but elsewhere occurrence of a series of moderate to large flows has restricted growth.  Drought conditions have also occurred over the past decade and in earlier periods, affecting growth. The vegetation dynamics have complex interactions with the sediment and morphological changes in these channels and together they contribute to variations in flood capacity and hydraulics of flow. Feedback effects through erosion and deposition processes are identified. Results of modelling the effects of the different vegetation coverage, assemblages and heights of plants are discussed. Effects of timing of flows and of hydrological balances, countered by extreme temperatures, are analysed. It is shown that the dynamics of vegetation, through succession of different size events and varying conditions, have a significant effect on flood levels and spatial patterns in ephemeral channels and these need to be incorporated in flood modelling and predictions.  Consideration of flood management strategies needs to recognise that presence and dynamics of vegetation can pose both challenges and benefits, especially in highly erodible catchments with very high sediment fluxes and under conditions of climate change.  

How to cite: Hooke, J.: Mediation of hydro-geomorphological  process effects on flooding by vegetation in dryland channels , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3099, 2025.

Recent research has marked an interesting step forward in our knowledge of floods, the way they occur and hit communities, and our capability to predict them. New data availability and the advent of new methods, notably those based on artificial intelligence, convey exciting perspective to cope with floods in the future. At the same time, new solutions are emerging, spanning from nature based ones to structural and infrastructural interventions.

On the other hand, there is growing and data-based evidence that flood risk, in terms of expected damage is increasing. It is also increasingly clear that often floods take communities by surprise. The number of truly unexpected events that are continuously occurring is concerning. Therefore, we assist to a sort of paradox, where new knowledge and opportunities are associated to an increase of risk. What are the reasons for this paradox? For what reason we are not able to transfer new knowledge into operational practice to mitigate the risk of flood? These are interesting questions that are rooted into the science of floods and the way local and regional communities and civil protection manage the risk of flood and its implications.

From a scientific point of view, it is not yet clear the dynamic interaction between climate change, hydrological change (including land-use change) and societal changes. It is also not clear what is the reason of the above surprise. As a result, we are still not fully capable of identifying priorities for actions and solutions.

This talk aim to propose a closer look at the above paradox and questions, basing on the assumption that floods never occur for one reason only, but rather from an interaction of drivers. These need to be better explored by promoting an interdisciplinary approach, which hopefully will promote a transdisciplinary transformation. I will look at the key role of society and in particular economy to get to target and I will discuss the perspectives given by artificial intelligence, which is not a new opportunity but is becoming dramatically more accessible thus offering new options.

The case of the Po River, in Italy, will be used as an example case study, by emphasising that flood risk is not an isolated problem, but it is often accompanied by hydrological risk in general and in particular the risk of drought. Therefore, finding solutions need to be a synergetic effort.

How to cite: Montanari, A.: A closer look at flood risk and future perspectives after changes in climate, hydrology and society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4731, 2025.

Compound flooding refers to the co-occurrence of multiple flooding mechanisms, leading to more severe and complex flood events. Low-lying coastal deltas and estuaries are especially prone to compound flooding as they face multiple drivers such as storm surges, high river discharge, intense rainfall, tides, and sea-level rise. These combined sources amplify the impacts, resulting in significant loss of life and property, as seen in Hurricane Katrina (New Orleans, 2005), Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, 2008), and Storm Xynthia (French Atlantic coast, 2010). Globally, 2.15 billion people live in near-coastal areas, including 898 million in low-elevation coastal zones. The UK has a long history of estuarine flooding caused by compound events. Climate projections suggest hotter, drier summers and wetter winters, accompanied by more frequent and intense extreme events. Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate vulnerabilities in the UK's coastal regions (UK Met Office, IPCC 2014). Coastal aquifers are frequently affected by flooding, making groundwater a critical factor in estuarine geomorphology. Recent studies have highlighted the significant volumetric and chemical importance of groundwater in river-dominated coastal systems, warranting further investigation under climate change scenarios.

In this study we have developed a coupled catchment and groundwater model using Caesar Lisflood to assess groundwater’s contribution to compound flood events. The model is calibrated using historical fluvial and tidal flow data to evaluate how river discharge, groundwater, and associated drivers shape flood magnitude, timing, and behavior. Additionally, the study analyzes the sensitivity of the estuary to changes in hydrogeological parameters by observing variations in modeled groundwater heads and simulated discharge in response to changes in aquifer properties. Our research focuses on the Conwy estuary in North Wales, a flashy catchment that experiences frequent flooding events. A notable compound flood occurred during Storm Ciara (February 2020), when record river levels, intense rainfall, and high storm tides combined to affect 172 properties. The Conwy River drains a 600 km² catchment with annual precipitation averaging 1,700 mm and a baseflow contribution of 27%. Baseflow, the component of streamflow discharged from groundwater storage, reacts slowly to rainfall and is notably influenced by topography, geology, vegetation, land use, and climatic factors. This research delves into the lesser-studied role of groundwater in estuarine hydrology, providing insights into its potential impact on compound flood dynamics under future climate scenarios.

 

How to cite: Bhattacharya, A.: Impact of Groundwater in Compound Flooding: A Case Study of the Conwy Estuary in Wales., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7245, 2025.

EGU25-9122 | PICO | GM3.3

Modeling Wetland Rebuilding After Dyke Failure in Highly Anthropized River Deltas: A Case Study from the Po River Delta, Italy 

S. Hadi Shamsnia, Alvise Finotello, Daniele Pietro Viero, Luca Carniello, Andrea D'Alpos, Massimiliano Ghinassi, and Valentina Marzia Rossi

Abstract

Nature-based solutions in coastal ecosystems offer more efficient and sustainable strategies to cope with climate changes and anthropogenic modifications compared to traditional hard engineering measures. In river deltas, managed realignment through levee breaching has become an increasingly common approach for restoring coastal wetlands and reestablishing natural depositional dynamics on previously reclaimed deltaic plains.

This study focuses on the formation of new wetlands in the Po River Delta (PRD) following dyke failures over the last 3 decades. During this period, portions of reclaimed land in the delta's most seaward sector were abandoned, flooded, and progressively transformed into vegetated wetlands.

Our study area, known as "Batteria" Island, is located in the PRD northeastern portion. Previously used as agricultural land dedicated to rice cultivation, the area was partially abandoned following significant subsidence and a series of large floods from the Po River during the 1970s. These floods caused widespread inundation by seawater and induced soil salinization. Subsequently, the area, left flooded, was utilized both as a hunting reserve and a fish farm before being permanently abandoned between the 1980s-1990s. The lack of maintenance led to the failure of several artificial dykes, ranging in height from approximately 1 to 3 meters, allowing river waters to inundate previously reclaimed, low-lying deltaic land. One of these dyke breaches, which occurred in 1999, resulted in the formation of approximately 30 hectares of new wetlands in less than 20 years.

In this study, we utilized a depth-averaged, coupled hydro-morphodynamic and sediment transport model to simulate wetland formation at Batteria Island. The numerical model was applied to an unstructured grid representing the entire PRD and was forced by 30 years of mean high-water levels and peak river discharge at the downstream and upstream boundaries, respectively. The model also incorporated a steady subsidence rate of 2 cm/year, derived from empirical data.

The model successfully reproduced wetland formation following dyke breaching, aligning with observations from aerial photos and bathymetric surveys. Consequently, we applied the same model to simulate dyke breaches at different locations within the PRD to evaluate the feasibility of using managed realignment to create new wetland areas of significant socio-economic and ecosystem value.

Our study highlights the inherent ability of highly anthropized river delta systems—characterized by extensive reclaimed land—to retain sediment and build new land when dykes are removed, whether naturally or artificially. This process enables these systems to recover a more natural, dynamic state, characterized by rapid and widespread wetland formation. Such a transformation enhances resilience to projected relative sea-level rise in the near future.

Keywords: Nature-based solutions, Burcio lagoon, Levee Breaching, Morphodynamic model, 2DEF, Shallow water area

How to cite: Shamsnia, S. H., Finotello, A., Pietro Viero, D., Carniello, L., D'Alpos, A., Ghinassi, M., and Marzia Rossi, V.: Modeling Wetland Rebuilding After Dyke Failure in Highly Anthropized River Deltas: A Case Study from the Po River Delta, Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9122, 2025.

EGU25-9823 | PICO | GM3.3

Geomorphological Response of Montane Streams to Extreme Floods 

Jakub Langhammer and Martin Lehký

Extreme flood events can cause significant geomorphic changes in river systems, including bank erosion, sediment deposition, river braiding and the formation of new channels, resulting in extensive damage to settlements, infrastructure, and floodplain structures. At the same time, information on the extent, nature and distribution of the geomorphologic impacts of floods is often not systematically collected and is therefore not available to assess the consequences of flood events and associated risks, or to provide a basis for efficient water management and flood protection.

This study presents longitudinal research employing geomorphologic mapping and UAV photogrammetric reconstructions to track the intensity, type, and distribution of geomorphic changes to streams in the Opava River Basin, Jeseníky Mts., Central Europe, recurrently affected by devastating floods. The field survey was carried out repeatedly in the area after major floods in 1997, 2007, and 2024 using a consistent mapping methodology. This approach combined the mapping of geomorphologic flood effects with hydromorphological properties, including information on channel and floodplain modifications. The survey covered a contiguous stretch of river in the core flood zone over a length of 100 km, and the UAV campaigns following the 2024 flood focused on selected river segments representing hotspots of river dynamics.

The large-scale mapping results allowed for an assessment of the spatial distribution of flood effects, the identification of critical elements and structures, and the analysis of relationships between stream modifications and the nature of geomorphic impacts. High-resolution models from UAV monitoring allowed us to quantify detailed geomorphic analysis and determine bank erosion rates, sediment volumes, and channel migration patterns.

The analysis revealed substantial spatial variability in geomorphic responses, with particularly intense erosion and sediment deposition observed in narrow valley sections and areas of high flow velocity, as well as in relation to floodplain connectivity and channel modifications. The most significant geomorphological changes consistently reoccurred in the same locations, signaling the need for targeted river management and protection.

The study highlights the importance of geomorphic mapping of flood impacts for understanding the risks posed by high-intensity floods, improving risk assessment, and efficient post-flood recovery efforts. Methodologically, it emphasizes the efficiency of UAV photogrammetry for detailed and rapid post-flood assessments, providing comprehensive information to better understand flood dynamics and target river management strategies.

How to cite: Langhammer, J. and Lehký, M.: Geomorphological Response of Montane Streams to Extreme Floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9823, 2025.

EGU25-15572 | ECS | PICO | GM3.3

Effect of incision on river response to floods: Insights from flume experiments 

Richard Mason, Pauline Delorme, Brendan Murphy, Stuart McLelland, Edwin Baynes, Lina Polvi, Stephen Rice, and Daniel Parsons

Flood risk is increasing worldwide, however, studies on river geomorphological responses to floods often lack explicit consideration of anthropogenic impacts on rivers. A pervasive impact of human modification has been the conversion of anabranching riverscapes to incised, single thread, so called ‘fire-hose’ channels. However, the consequences of such modification for river functioning are poorly understood, restricting our ability to manage flood risk in modified systems or restore these riverscapes. Therefore, we aim to determine how incision of gravel bed rivers modifies their geomorphological response to flood events. We undertook an experiment in a large hydraulic flume, designed to simulate an alluvial gravel-bed river. The flume was filled with loose sand and seeded with alfalfa to represent riparian vegetation. Under our initial conditions of low flow and sediment input, a fully equilibrium anabranching channel developed. Subsequently, we simulated both small and large flood events. We then prompted incision by lowering the downstream base level, allowed the channel to reach a new equilibrium state, and conducted the same flood sequence. We compare the response of the anabranching and incised treatments to floods, in terms of geomorphic work done, morphological response and sediment output. First, we found that for the same input conditions, both anabranching and incised, single thread, equilibrium states existed, determined by the historical changes in base level modification. However, the two equilibrium states responded very differently to flood events. Riparian vegetation played a critical role in this process, reducing widening and channel migration associated with incision in non-vegetated experiments. Instead, channel morphological changes to high flows after incision were predominantly through adjustments to river depth. Second, incision reduced flooding because even the largest flows were fully contained within the channel. However, sediment export from the incised channel during floods was nearly double that of the anabranching treatment. Consequently, incision reduced flood extents locally, but may exacerbate flood risk overall by transporting water quickly downstream and exporting much greater amounts of sediment which could reduce channel capacity at other parts of the river network.

How to cite: Mason, R., Delorme, P., Murphy, B., McLelland, S., Baynes, E., Polvi, L., Rice, S., and Parsons, D.: Effect of incision on river response to floods: Insights from flume experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15572, 2025.

EGU25-17644 | ECS | PICO | GM3.3

Interactions between river mobility and land use in the Philippines: implications for space to move policies 

Pamela Louise Tolentino, Richard Boothroyd, Craig McDonnell, and Richard Williams

Rivers need space to sustain key ecological and geomorphological functions, and to convey floodwater. However, river management efforts have often used structural engineering approaches to mitigate erosion hazards to land that has been developed for agricultural, industrial and urban land uses. In the Philippines, current easement regulations require a minimum 3 metre buffer along the bank of a river for urban areas and 20 metre buffer for agricultural lands. We use a four-decade long archive of satellite imagery, processed in Google Earth Engine, to investigate river mobility across the Philippines, enabling us to quantify how mobile rivers are and the land covers that are eroded due to river migration. In more detail, our study assesses Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and river mobility across ten catchments using national-scale LULC datasets (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2020) and satellite imagery from 1988 to 2021. We standardised LULC classifications and analysed transitions within catchments, identifying key changes in dominant land cover types. Intersections between active channel edges and LULC maps revealed the types of land cover rivers interacted with over time, highlighting areas of encroachment and potential risk. Using Digital Shoreline Analysis Software, we quantified river migration rates between 2000 and 2020, along each river, identifying spatial patterns of river movement and areas where rivers migrated into new LULC types. The analysis of LULC distributions at varying distances from the maximum active channel extent provides insights into how easement regulations could be informed by observations of actual river mobility. Our findings are a demonstration of a nature-based solution to defining how much space rivers need, informed by big data. The findings have direct implications for Philippine easement laws, which mandate buffer zones along waterways to protect against flood and erosion risks, and environmental degradation; there is potential to re-evaluate static buffer zones and consider adaptive, risk-based approaches to easement enforcement. 

How to cite: Tolentino, P. L., Boothroyd, R., McDonnell, C., and Williams, R.: Interactions between river mobility and land use in the Philippines: implications for space to move policies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17644, 2025.

EGU25-18999 | PICO | GM3.3

Geomorphic Flood Index 2.0: Enhanced Tools for Delineating Flood-Prone Areas in Data-Scarce Regions 

Salvatore Manfreda, Jorge Saavedra, Cinzia Albertini, Daniele Pacia, Caterina Samela, and Ruodan Zhuang

In recent years, significant advancements in geomorphic methods have offered a cost-effective and valuable alternative for large-scale flood mapping. Among these, the Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) has gained widespread adoption for flood delineation applications globally (Samela et al., 2017). The development of the GFA-tool plug-in for QGIS has helped to disseminate and simplify the application of this approach and boosted its popularity (Samela et al., 2018).

The GFI builds on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) information on water levels in each drainage network cell and elevation differences between each river basin location and the closest stream channel cell hydrologically connected to it. However, in  its current original formulation, certain limitations exist that can affect its usability and reliability (Albertini et al., 2021). In fact, near confluences, floodwater may not strictly follow river connectivity patterns and secondary tributary floodplains may be partially submerged due to the backflow from the mainstream.

To address these challenges, a new methodology has been developed that explicitly takes into consideration confluences.  This improved approach enhances the robustness of the index and provides more reliable flood mapping, even in complex settings such as large alluvial valleys. The method further improves the reliability of flood depth estimations obtained through this approach.

 

References:

Albertini, C., D. Miglino, V. Iacobellis, F. De Paola, S. Manfreda, Flood-prone areas delineation in coastal regions using the Geomorphic Flood Index, Journal of Flood Risk Management, e12766, 2021.

Samela, C., R. Albano, A. Sole, S. Manfreda, A GIS tool for cost-effective delineation of flood-prone areas, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 70, 43-52, 2018.  

Samela, C., T.J. Troy, S. Manfreda, Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments, Advances in Water Resources,  102, 13-28, 2017.

How to cite: Manfreda, S., Saavedra, J., Albertini, C., Pacia, D., Samela, C., and Zhuang, R.: Geomorphic Flood Index 2.0: Enhanced Tools for Delineating Flood-Prone Areas in Data-Scarce Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18999, 2025.

The seasonal variations in the textural parameters and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of beach sediments were collected along the Purangad to Gaonkhadi coast of the Ratnagiri district, Maharashtra, India. A total of 56 samples (28 samples from each season i.e. pre-monsoon and post-monsoon) were collected from multiple beach locations, encompassing diverse geomorphological features. The foreshore sediments show symmetrical to strongly fine skewed whereas, backshore sediments are fine skewed to strongly fine skewed. During post-monsoon (POM) season, foreshore and backshore sediments are coarse-grained sand, whereas raised beach and foredune sediments show fine-grained sand. The foreshore sediments are poorly sorted to very poorly sorted, while the backshore and raised beach sediments are moderately sorted to poorly sorted. The linear discriminant analysis (LDA) plots of sediments fall in a shallow marine environment, while few sediments fall in a shallow beach environment. PCA revealed distinct clusters corresponding to different beach environments, highlighting the influence of local geological sources and human activities on sand composition. The first two principal components explained approximately 78% of the total variance, with grain size and mineralogy being the most significant factors. This analysis underscores the utility of PCA in environmental geosciences, providing insights into sediment dynamics and the ecological implications of coastal processes. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of coastal sedimentology and offer a framework for future beach system resilience and management studies.

How to cite: Bagul, P. and Herlekar, M.: Sediment characterization of beach sediment along a part of the West Coast of India:Implications for the Climate change., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-602, 2025.

EGU25-1524 | ECS | Orals | GM8.3

Right size, right place: scale-dependency of managed realignment in an urban estuary 

Octria Adi Prasojo, Richard D. Williams, Larissa A. Naylor, Jaime L. Toney, and Martin D. Hurst

Managed realignment, the landward relocation of primary flood defences, is increasingly recognised as a sustainable approach to mitigating tidal flood risk in estuaries. However, the effectiveness of realignment relative to the size and location of intervention, and in relation to estuary size, remains poorly understood. This knowledge gap is critical, especially for urban estuaries where space for large-scale, nature-based interventions is limited. This study explores the scale-dependency of managed realignment using a 2D TUFLOW hydraulic flood model of the Clyde estuary, a large, meso-tidal urban estuary on Scotland’s west coast. Analytical solutions and existing flood models from eight other UK estuaries complement this analysis to facilitate comparisons between estuaries of a range of sizes. Our findings reveal that managed realignment exhibits scale-dependent behaviour: the effectiveness of managed realignment to reduce tidal flood risk is linearly proportional to the ratio of the size of the managed realignment to the estuary size. Larger estuaries, like the Clyde, require significantly more extensive realignment to achieve meaningful tidal flood risk reduction. Conversely, smaller estuaries achieve similar benefits with comparatively smaller interventions as they are more sensitive to geometric changes. Additionally for the Clyde, we also found that reconnecting a previously plugged palaeo-channel is more effective at reducing tidal flood risk than relocating primary flood defences. The results imply that a well-chosen location and size of realignment are needed to have a positive impact on reducing tidal flood risk in an estuary; this can be challenging due to existing land uses in highly urbanised estuaries. Hydrodynamic modelling will provide powerful tools to aid decision-makers and avoid risks of maladaptation, supported by long-term monitoring. Given the growing global adoption of managed realignment, this study offers critical insights into the scale-dependent behaviour of this strategy, helping to refine its implementation in diverse estuarine contexts.

How to cite: Prasojo, O. A., Williams, R. D., Naylor, L. A., Toney, J. L., and Hurst, M. D.: Right size, right place: scale-dependency of managed realignment in an urban estuary, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1524, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1524, 2025.

EGU25-2348 | Orals | GM8.3

Global altered estuaries with estuarine dams: Pathways for conservation and restoration 

Guan-hong Lee, Jongwi Chang, and Courtney Harris

Estuarine dams, built between the estuary mouth and tidal limits, provide freshwater storage and storm surge protection but disrupt natural processes, altering hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and ecosystems. These changes affect freshwater discharge, tidal regimes, stratification, and sedimentation, often degrading water quality and obstructing fish migration. Globally, estuarine dams are found in 10% of 2,396 analyzed estuaries and, along with land reclamation, have caused nearly half of estuarine area loss over 30 years. Their construction peaked in mid-income countries during the 20th century, with limited development in low-income countries due to economic constraints and in high-income nations due to stricter environmental regulations. In a recent study of the Nakdong Estuary in Korea, the morphologic equilibrium following dam construction and subsequent restoration was investigated. Long-term numerical modeling revealed that the estuary achieved equilibrium approximately 15 years after restoration. In contrast, human-altered estuaries stabilized more quickly—within about 9 years—due to hydrodynamic adjustments and sediment redistribution that reduced energy dissipation. Model simulations effectively reproduced key morphological changes, including the transition from barrier island formation under wave-dominated conditions after dam construction to sand shoal development under tide-dominated conditions following restoration. Additionally, the model captured shifts in sediment texture: from sand-dominated under pristine conditions, to mud-dominated during the construction phase, and ultimately returning to sand-dominated post-restoration. This study highlights the value of realistic, long-term numerical simulations in understanding estuarine responses to human interventions and restoration efforts. The findings offer valuable insights for developing sustainable management strategies - conservation in low- and mid-income countries and restoration in high-income countries.

How to cite: Lee, G., Chang, J., and Harris, C.: Global altered estuaries with estuarine dams: Pathways for conservation and restoration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2348, 2025.

EGU25-2568 | ECS | Orals | GM8.3

Canal excavation impacts on the hydrodynamics of shallow back-barrier lagoons 

Davide Tognin, Angelica Piazza, and Luca Carniello

Estuaries and lagoons have historically served as sheltered areas for navigation and harbours, fostering settlement and trade. Over centuries, human interventions such as channel dredging and canal excavation have reshaped these environments to accommodate increasingly larger vessels and facilitate harbour access. While these modifications offer immediate benefits for navigation purposes, they alter the delicate hydro-morphodynamic balance of shallow tidal systems, potentially intensifying erosion and vulnerability to sea level rise. Therefore, understanding the side effects and long-term consequences of dredging and excavation is essential for developing informed management strategies for back-barrier lagoons.

Here we examine the effects of canal excavation and dredging on the hydrodynamics of two back-barrier lagoon systems in the northern Adriatic Sea: the Venice and the Marano-Grado Lagoons. In the Venice Lagoon, the Malamocco-Marghera canal, excavated in 1970, is periodically dredged to a minimum depth of -10 m along its 16-km path connecting the Marghera harbour to the open sea through the Malamocco inlet. In the Marano-Grado Lagoon, a 5-km canal completed in 1969, is dredged to -6 m to connect the industrial harbours on the Corno and Ausa rivers to the Porto Buso inlet. We constructed computational grids for the pre- and post-intervention scenarios, as well as for the present-day configurations, based on available bathymetric surveys for both lagoons. Using a 2-D finite element hydrodynamic model, we simulated tidal flows in the considered configurations, setting as boundary conditions a sinusoidal tidal wave with a 0.50 m amplitude and a 12-hour period, typical of the northern Adriatic Sea.

Despite differences in morphology and intervention scale between the two cases, consistent trends emerged. Comparisons of pre- and post-intervention scenarios reveal an increase in the water discharge through the inlet connected to the excavated channel. This increased water exchange leads also to a different subdivision of the sub-basin connected to each inlet. Moreover, the increase in the ebb-phase discharge is more pronounced than that in the flood phase, indicating that channel dredging promotes a shift toward ebb-dominant conditions, with implications for water and sediment dynamics.

These findings highlight the potential long-term consequences of excavation and dredging in shallow tidal systems and emphasize the need for management strategies that reconcile navigational needs with the preservation of the morphological integrity of back-barrier lagoon ecosystems.

How to cite: Tognin, D., Piazza, A., and Carniello, L.: Canal excavation impacts on the hydrodynamics of shallow back-barrier lagoons, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2568, 2025.

EGU25-2865 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Comparing the effects of mangroves versus salt marshes on delta morphodynamics 

Jiejun Luo, Zhijun Dai, and Jaap Nienhuis

Salt marshes and mangrove wetlands provide crucial ecosystem services to deltaic areas. They also significantly modulate hydrological conditions (e.g., currents, tides, and waves), thereby altering sediment dynamics and morphology. However, how these vegetation types shape morphology at the delta scale remains a largely unresolved question.

In this presentation we will compare the hydro-morphodynamic impacts of salt marshes and mangroves in river deltas, using field observations of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary and Beibu Gulf in China, respectively. Additionally, numerical modeling using Delft3D is employed to analyze the interactions between vegetation and hydro-sedimentary processes.

Preliminary results from fieldwork reveal that both salt marshes and mangroves effectively attenuate waves and currents, promoting sediment deposition, particularly at the interface between bare flats and vegetated zones. In calm weather, salt marshes tend to accumulate sediment more readily than mangroves. However, during storm events, salt marshes are more susceptible to erosion, resulting in greater variability in sediment dynamics. There are also seasonal differences. In salt marshes, wave and current attenuation is more pronounced during summer than winter, whereas such seasonal variation is less significant in mangroves. Multi-year variability, on the other hand, may be greater in mangroves.

In ongoing numerical simulations, we find a strong nonlinear sedimentation effect as mangroves transition from small saplings to mature individuals. Future work will include modeling the role of salt marshes, with comparisons across different temporal scales (e.g., tidal cycles, seasons, years, and decades) and in direct competition with mangroves. Broadly, these findings will help us to explore potential river delta change as mangroves encroach on salt marshes in our warming planet.

 

Acknowledgements: This research has been supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFE0121200) and the National Natural Science Key Foundation of China (NSFC) (42430406).

How to cite: Luo, J., Dai, Z., and Nienhuis, J.: Comparing the effects of mangroves versus salt marshes on delta morphodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2865, 2025.

Damage caused by land subsidence due to excess pumping has become a serious problem in coastal major cities and landscapes around the world. To prevent this damage, it is necessary to predict local deformation in the ground and design the appropriate pumping amount. To verify the predicted deformation from land subsidence modeling, experimental methods with visualizing deformation distribution is of importance.
A visualization method using transparent synthetic soil (TSS) as a physical model of soil behavior has been developed in the field of soil mechanics. This experimental method simulates the geotechnical properties of natural soil using a transparent surrogate containing a transparent porous medium and pore fluid. In this study, the authors performed a tank experiment using a TSS made of polymers which is inexpensive and easy to control.
In the previous experimental study by the authors, a pumping test was carried out in an acrylic tank measuring 300 mm wide x 250 mm long x 249 mm high, filled with a transparent hydrated polymer to represent an aquitard (clay layer) above an aquifer (saturated silica sand). Using the target racking method, 100 particles with a diameter of 3 mm were submerged in the synthetic clay layer, and the subsidence in the synthetic clay layer caused by the pumping of pore water in the silica sand was constantly monitored. 
In this study, an AI-based object detection method was used to more quantitatively visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of deformation inside the TSS caused by the propagation of pore water pressure change in the TSS after pumping was stopped. It successfully revealed the three dimensional elastoplastic deformation distribution. The developed methods and the obtained results are expected to contribute to a better understanding of land subsidence mechanisms and verify the numerical land subsidence modeling.

How to cite: Tabe, K. and Aichi, M.: Visualization technique for the deformation distributions in transparent synthetic soil with object detection, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3389, 2025.

EGU25-3718 | Orals | GM8.3

Climate-driven depopulation of a low-elevation coastal zone 

Torbjörn Törnqvist, Jesse Keenan, Jayur Mehta, and Zhixiong Shen

The latest IPCC report projects that regardless of the climate scenario, the highest rates of future sea-level rise will occur along the west-central US Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, recent research has shown that coastal wetlands in the Mississippi Delta are unable to survive rates of sea-level rise higher than 3 mm/yr, a number that was exceeded two decades ago. Thus, the 1M+ inhabitants surrounded by marshland will have to adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here we adopt an interdisciplinary approach to assess this problem.

The archeologic record shows that indigenous people adapted quickly to changing conditions in the rapidly evolving Mississippi Delta, abandoning areas subject to transgression and settling on prograding delta lobes. Present-day populations are much less nimble, yet rapid coastal degradation (notably wetland loss) has been related to the population decline that has already commenced in this region. While catastrophic events (i.e., major hurricane strikes) are commonly thought of as driving population loss, we argue that socio-economic factors (notably a dwindling home insurance industry) may become equally important. One key question is how much continued sea-level rise this region will see.

The last interglacial (LIG, ~125,000 years ago) featured a global average temperature that reached about 0.5-1.5 °C above pre-industrial values. Remnants of a LIG shoreline have been identified in SE Louisiana more than 100 km landward of the present shoreline, with a reconstructed sea level of 3.1 ± 0.8 m higher than present (7.5 ± 1.1 m after correction for fault motion). Since anthropogenic climate change (~1.5 °C in 2024) has already brought us near the upper end of LIG warming, it is plausible that future sea-level rise to such an elevation is already locked in, although the timescale for this to play out remains uncertain. With respect to the LIG shoreline, the New Orleans metropolitan area is located on the “wrong” side.

If future warming is kept well below Paris Agreement levels (2 °C) the shoreline may eventually stabilize at a position comparable to that from the LIG. Conversely, if Paris goals are exceeded, sea level can be expected to rise to an extent that puts other metropolitan areas, farther inland and at slightly higher elevation, in jeopardy as well. The next few decades will be decisive as to whether Paris climate goals are met. As a consequence, the ultimate fate of several million inhabitants, along with trillions in economic and ecologic capital, will likely be determined by mid-century.

How to cite: Törnqvist, T., Keenan, J., Mehta, J., and Shen, Z.: Climate-driven depopulation of a low-elevation coastal zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3718, 2025.

EGU25-4879 | ECS | Orals | GM8.3

Tracing sand transport pathways using a Lagrangian sediment tracking model 

Natascia Pannozzo, Stuart Pearson, Martin Meijer, Anna-Maartje de Boer, Tim de Wilde, Edwin Elias, Tjitske Kooistra, Jakob Wallinga, and Bram Van Prooijen

Quantifying sediment transport is crucial for thoroughly understanding coastal systems and accurately designing coastal management interventions (e.g., sand nourishments). Lagrangian particle tracking models are valuable tools for investigating sediment transport, as modelling in a Lagrangian framework provides complete records of particle transport sources, sinks, and the pathways between them. Here we present two examples of application of Lagrangian sediment tracking modelling in coastal settings. Both studies are conducted using SedTRAILS [1], a Lagrangian particle tracking model that derives particles position from flow velocity fields generated from hydrodynamic models.

In the first application we simulate the dispersal of a nourishment on the ebb-tidal delta of Ameland Inlet (Wadden Sea, Netherlands). The flow velocity fields employed by the SedTRAILS simulation are generated from a Delft3D simulation of Ameland Inlet. The nourishment is modelled as a sample of representative sand parcels randomly sourced within the nourishment area and its gradual erosion is modelled by continuously releasing the parcels at regular intervals for the duration of the simulation. The accuracy of the Lagrangian simulation results are validated by comparing maps of particles position generated at different time steps of the SedTRAILS simulation with maps of sand spatial distribution derived from the Delft3D simulation at the same time steps. Ultimately, we are able to model the pathways of individual nourishment particles up to six months after its displacement.

In the second application we couple SedTRAILS with measurements of sand grains luminescence (i.e., the ability of a mineral grain to store energy when buried and release it upon exposure to sunlight) to reconstruct sand transport history in coastal settings. In order to do so, we combine SedTRAILS with a model that quantifies sunlight exposure of a given sand particle as a function of turbidity and its position in the water column [2], allowing to compute the cumulative sunlight exposure of such particle during its transport history. Since luminescence signals produce evidence of how long a sand particle was buried for, we are able to infer and simulate the forcings that the particle was exposed to before burial (i.e., during its transport history). As luminescence signals also yield information on how much sunlight the sand particle was exposed to before being buried, we can eventually combine the modelled cumulative sunlight exposure with evidence on resetting of luminescence signals as a function of light exposure [3] to infer, for the first time, coastal sand transport history from luminescence measurements.

Overall, the two studies provide an overview of how Lagrangian particle tracking modelling can (on its own and in combination with other techniques) provide unique insights on where, when and how sand is transported across coastal systems, which can advance our understanding of coastal systems and be exploited for accurately designing coastal management interventions.

References

[1] Pearson S.G. et al. (2023). Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2023, 1212-1221.

[2] Storlazzi C.D. et al. (2015). Coral Reefs, 34 (3), 967-975.

[3] de Boer A.-M. et al. (2024). Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 103, 22.

How to cite: Pannozzo, N., Pearson, S., Meijer, M., de Boer, A.-M., de Wilde, T., Elias, E., Kooistra, T., Wallinga, J., and Van Prooijen, B.: Tracing sand transport pathways using a Lagrangian sediment tracking model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4879, 2025.

EGU25-5273 | Orals | GM8.3

Hydrogeological controls on endangered frog breeding habitat in an urban coastal wetland: Insights for conservation strategies 

Gabriel C. Rau, Bianca R. Palombi, Peter Reinhard, Warren Brown, Hannah Power, and Alex Callen

Coastal ecosystems are shaped by the dynamic interaction of freshwater and saltwater, governed by both oceanic and terrestrial hydrological processes. However, anthropogenic development and climate change are disrupting these processes, necessitating targeted conservation strategies to sustain ecosystem functions. This study examines the hydrogeological processes influencing water levels and salinities in a coastal wetland near Avoca Lagoon (NSW, Australia), an intermittently open and closed system that is manually breached when water levels exceed a threshold to prevent urban flooding. The wetland was specifically designed to support the breeding of the endangered Green and Golden Bell Frog (GGBF), whose eggs and tadpoles require a narrow range of low-salinity conditions for survival. We established two surface water and three groundwater piezometers at depths of 3.5 to 5.5 m to monitor water levels and salinity. Additionally, multiple electrical resistivity tomography transects were acquired near the wetland, and the lagoon's depth and salinity profile were surveyed using a kayak. The results reveal that lagoon levels rise rapidly after rainfall and decrease gradually through evapotranspiration and water loss to the ocean during dry periods. The wetland’s water levels closely follow those of the lagoon, indicating hydraulic connectivity through the subsurface. Manual breaching of the lagoon’s berm prevents flooding of low-lying areas but leaves the lagoon level too low to sustain wetland water, causing it to dry out. Salinity within the lagoon is stratified, with brackish water overlaying seawater. While these saline conditions are unsuitable for frog breeding, the wetland is surrounded by fresh groundwater, which can discharge into the wetland under lower lagoon levels to create favourable breeding conditions. High lagoon levels, however, breach the barrier between the lagoon and wetland, causing salinisation and compromising habitat suitability. Our investigation reveals the delicate balance of water level and salinity conditions required for GGBF breeding, requiring a critical "goldilocks zone". Effective habitat conservation strategies must address a complex interplay of hydrogeological processes to enable breeding conditions, including challenges posed by climate change-induced shifts in rainfall patterns and future sea level rise. These findings underscore the broader challenges coastal areas face under increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures, highlighting the critical need for improved management approaches that integrate surface and groundwater processes to protect frog habitats and maintain broader ecosystem functionality.

How to cite: Rau, G. C., Palombi, B. R., Reinhard, P., Brown, W., Power, H., and Callen, A.: Hydrogeological controls on endangered frog breeding habitat in an urban coastal wetland: Insights for conservation strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5273, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5273, 2025.

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is among the world’s most intricate delta systems, shaped by the dynamic interaction of upstream runoff and downstream tidal dynamics. However, the mechanisms underlying river-tide connectivity within such complex networks remains insufficiently understood, particularly the nonlinear feedback loops and spatiotemporal lag effects governing water level dynamics. This study employs an information-theoretic framework to investigate water level connectivity in the PRD, integrating relative mutual information (RMI) and relative transfer entropy (RTE) to quantify synchrony, causality, and directional information flow among hydrological variables. Results highlight the dominant role of upstream river discharge on water level synchrony in the Xijiang and Beijiang River systems, while downstream tidal dynamics exert greater causal effects in the Pearl River’s mainstream and coastal distributary regions. Since the 1990s, human activities, such as dam construction and channel dredging, have attenuated the influence of river discharge while leaving tidal impacts largely unchanged. Seasonal analysis reveals that that upstream river discharge predominantly governs water level connectivity during the flood season, whereas downstream tidal forcing becomes more prominent in the dry season, with spring tides amplifying these effects across both seasons. The study further shows spatiotemporal heterogeneity in connectivity, highlighting nonlinear feedback mechanisms and lag effects across subsystems. These insights underscore the adaptability and resilience of the PRD under both natural and anthropogenic pressures. By providing a novel perspective on deltaic process dynamics, this study contributes to the theoretical foundation for sustainable management and resilience planning in the PRD.

How to cite: Wang, Y. and Cai, H.: Information-theoretic insights into river-tide connectivity in the Pearl River Delta: Implications for complex network dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6115, 2025.

EGU25-6772 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Intertidal Area Dynamics in an Unstable Delta 

Nazwa Tahsin, Jaap Nienhuis, and AJF (Ton) Hoitink

Intertidal areas are considered critical ecosystems as they serve as dynamic zones of interaction between land, ocean, and atmosphere; influencing sediment transport, coastal erosion, and habitat formation. Intertidal areas can also influence larger-scale hydro-morphodynamics and perhaps explain delta instability. However, intertidal areas are notoriously difficult to monitor. Here we present on work on multispectral remote sensing in combination of non-stationary harmonic analysis (NHSA) to explore time changes in the size and elevation of intertidal areas in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. Using Unified Tidal Analysis and Prediction (UTide) and earth engine platform in python programming, we analyzed tidal variations, reconstructed water levels, and quantified changes in intertidal geometry over multiple decades .  We find a long-term decline in intertidal area across the delta, and we also find that only a small fraction of intertidal areas remains stable, with an average lifespan of only 2–3 years. This short time is likely the combined effect of cyclones, tidal range amplification downstream, and channel migration, which collectively drive sediment reworking and result in significant spatiotemporal variability in intertidal extents and elevations. The processes thus highlight the dynamic and transient nature of intertidal zones in abruptly changing planform. This research provides critical insights into potential geophysical processes and their impacts on intertidal habitats, emphasizing the need for further studies and monitoring that can help in adaptive management strategies in response to the rapid geomorphological changes occurring in unstable deltaic systems.

How to cite: Tahsin, N., Nienhuis, J., and Hoitink, A. (.: Intertidal Area Dynamics in an Unstable Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6772, 2025.

EGU25-7216 | Orals | GM8.3

Developing a Hydraulic Model for Sustainable Restoration and Management of Anzali Wetland 

Amirreza Fatheenia, Bardia Farhadi Cheshmeh Morvari, Mona Hasanabadi, and Karim Alizad

Wetlands are among the most unique and biologically diverse ecosystems on the planet, playing critical roles in water filtration, carbon sequestration, and supporting rich biodiversity. However, these ecosystems are increasingly under threat from a combination of climate change and anthropogenic pressures. To safeguard these vital systems and ensure their sustainable functioning, the Ramsar Convention, an international treaty for wetland conservation, was adopted by 172 countries. The Anzali Wetland, situated in northern Iran, is one such Ramsar site and represents a significant ecological and hydrological resource. This wetland receives freshwater inputs from over 11 rivers and maintains a dynamic connection with the Caspian Sea. However, a confluence of challenges, including climate change-induced flooding, agricultural and wastewater runoff, declining Caspian Sea levels, and accelerated sediment deposition, has severely threatened the wetland’s integrity and functionality.

Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive management strategies informed by robust scientific understanding. Decision-makers and stakeholders need accurate tools to predict the outcomes of various interventions and develop targeted restoration plans. Hydrological and hydraulic models have become essential tools in this context, providing insights into complex ecosystem dynamics and helping evaluate the effectiveness of proposed management measures before their implementation.

In this study, the HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System) model, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based software, was employed to simulate the hydraulic behavior of the rivers flowing into the Anzali Wetland. This model is particularly well-suited for assessing open-channel hydraulics and has been tailored to represent the unique characteristics of the Anzali Wetland. Given that the wetland’s water levels are predominantly influenced by seasonal river inflows rather than Caspian Sea fluctuations, the model emphasizes the critical role of river hydrology in sustaining wetland productivity, including vegetation health and biodiversity.

The HEC-RAS model was calibrated and validated to cover the vast region and major inflows of the Anzali Wetland. It aimed to assess the effectiveness of existing flood control infrastructure, analyze contamination pathways and their impacts on water quality, and identify areas within the wetland prone to excessive sediment deposition. The model results also provide valuable insights into the interplay between hydrology, sediment transport, and water quality within the wetland. For example, the model highlights areas with severe sediment accumulation, threatening to disrupt aquatic habitats and navigation. Additionally, it identifies critical zones where agricultural and urban runoff introduce contaminants, adversely affecting water quality and wetland health.

The outcomes of this modeling effort serve as a vital decision-support tool for wetland managers and policymakers. By simulating different restoration scenarios, such as improved flood control measures, sediment management strategies, and contamination mitigation efforts, the model enables stakeholders to prioritize actions that will have the most significant impact on preserving and restoring the Anzali Wetland. This study underscores the importance of integrating advanced hydraulic modeling with ecosystem management to safeguard vulnerable wetlands like Anzali, ensuring their ecological, cultural, and economic functions for future generations.

How to cite: Fatheenia, A., Farhadi Cheshmeh Morvari, B., Hasanabadi, M., and Alizad, K.: Developing a Hydraulic Model for Sustainable Restoration and Management of Anzali Wetland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7216, 2025.

EGU25-7311 | ECS | Orals | GM8.3

Holistic analysis of shoreline change and mudbank dynamics across the Guiana coastline 

Martin Rogers and Tom Spencer

The Guiana coastline, stretching for 1500 km along the northeastern coastline of South America between the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers, is one of the most dynamic shorelines in the world. The frontage is characterised by a series of alongshore migratory, shore-attached mudbanks, with shoreline accretion and seaward expansion of mangrove vegetation during in-bank periods, followed by significant shoreline erosion during inter-bank phases. These coastal dynamics are of great concern to the nation states of Guyana and Suriname and the French overseas department of French Guyana where > 90% of the urban population live within the low elevation coastal zone.

Whilst considerable research has been undertaken along the Guiana coastline over the last four decades, the full determination of the dynamics of this long coastline remains challenging. Not all analyses have used sufficiently long temporal sequences of imagery to track at least one complete accretion-erosion cycle. Where high temporal resolution has been achieved, analysis has often been limited to one, and often only part, of the regional administrations.

This presentation provides the first ever analysis of rates of shoreline change across the entire Guiana coastline annually over a 35-year period (1987-2023). The seaward extent of mangrove forest or other coastal vegetation was selected as the shoreline proxy. This was extracted from Landsat multispectral 30 m resolution imagery using machine learning and image thresholding techniques. Annual shoreline change rates were measured at 200 m intervals over the 1500 km frontage, providing unprecedented insight into how the entire shoreline system has evolved.

This analysis discovered differences in the position, size, and speed of alongshore migration of nine mudbanks along the Guiana coastline, with mudbanks exhibiting either a graded or abrupt form of alongshore migration. Contrary to previous research, this analysis identified no evidence of a 30-year cycle in shoreline accretion – erosion across two extensive regions of the Guiana coastline: Saramacca, Suriname and Guyana. In both these locations, three other categories of landform were identified as affecting shoreline position: naturally migrating headlands, the presence of emplaced polders and sites of rapid accretion along anthropogenically modified coastlines. In addition, correlation analysis was conducted between shoreline change metrics, wave metrics derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, and climate indices including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This analysis identified a statistically significant relationship between pan-Guiana shoreline position and the 18.6-year nodal cycle. However, at the landform scale, significant wave height and direction had the strongest statistical relationship with shoreline change. This analysis is supported with the release of a comprehensive pan-Guiana shoreline change dataset, facilitating future holistic research and management of the Guiana coastline.

How to cite: Rogers, M. and Spencer, T.: Holistic analysis of shoreline change and mudbank dynamics across the Guiana coastline, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7311, 2025.

EGU25-9119 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Variable time scale changes in the river Neretva salinity regime 

Iva Aljinović, Veljko Srzić, and Jadran Čarija

Our study stems from in situ observations of temperature, EC and salinity performed during 2021-2023 along the river Neretva bed within the Republic of Croatia territory. Apart from the local water column profiling performed several times per year, mostly during dry period, continuous observations of EC, and temperature have been performed at fixed locations and for variable depths. As a main driving forces controlling the termohaline stratification of the Neretva water column caused by seawater intrusion, river Neretva discharge and Adriatic Sea level have been observed continuously. 
The data sets offer insight to changes in seawater-freshwater interface (SFI) and its shape ranging from typical salt wedge to complete stratification diminishing conditions. Hereby, within the data sets we identify three main scenarios of mechanisms controlling the seawater intrusions and thus the SFI: i) dominant influence of the mean sea level during the dry period with natural discharge kept below 250 m3/s, ii) dominant influence of intermittent discharge events caused by upstream hydropower plant operation and iii) rain period with on average annual duration of app. 25 % when river Neretva natural discharge controls the salinity vanishing from the river bed downstream. 
In this way, specific changes in the salinity corresponding to different time scales have been determined. Natural hydrologically induced changes in the salinity are identified to correspond to largest time scales of several days and even weeks, unless intermittent discharge caused changes occur very fast decrease in the salinity, typically less than three hours, with recovery time corresponding to app. three to six hours.
Although the data sets offer the definition of different time scale changes in the river salinity as mentioned above, an improvement in continuous stratification observation has been suggested and implemented as a result of conducted study. 

How to cite: Aljinović, I., Srzić, V., and Čarija, J.: Variable time scale changes in the river Neretva salinity regime, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9119, 2025.

EGU25-9183 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Mapping the vulnerability of tidal morphologies to Sea Level Rise through an index-based approach 

Marta Cosma, Cristina Da Lio, Sandra Donnici, and Luigi Tosi

The lagoon landscape is characterized by a diversity of tidal morphologies, such as salt marshes, tidal flats and subtidal platforms, playing an essential role for the ecosystem services these areas provide. The existence of these low-lying morphologies depends on the delicate balance between site-specific bio-geo-morphodynamic processes and relative SLR. Tidal morphologies are at risk of survival since they must keep pace with sea level rise and land subsidence. Given the expected climate change scenario, it is important to identify the most threatened areas, where effective measures are urgently needed. This work presents a novel assessment of the vulnerability of tidal morphologies to relative sea-level rise, using as a study case the Venice Lagoon: the largest wetland in Italy and one of the most important coastal ecosystems of the Adriatic Sea, where the natural hydro-morphological setting is strongly influenced by anthropogenic interventions. Vulnerability is assessed for past, ongoing and future relative SLR conditions through an index-based approach that combines sensitivity and hazard maps generated using a series of indicators such as SLR, land subsidence, morphological setting, and stratigraphic characteristics of Holocene deposits. Results indicate that most of the lagoon area will be at moderate to severe vulnerability in the future, representing a significant worsening of conditions compared to the past. Although the expansion of subtidal areas is anticipated, this will be at the expense of intertidal areas, which will experience a significant and alarming decline. This change contributes to the flattening and deepening of the lagoon's topography, which in turn threatens the diversity of the landscape and is likely to lead to a decline in the ecosystem services provided by these tidal morphologies. The vulnerability maps provide a valuable tool to highlight the areas that need more attention, which can assist policymakers in developing restoration, conservation and mitigation plans. This work is part of the research program RESTORE (REconstruct subsurface heterogeneities and quantify sediment needs TO improve the REsilience of Venice saltmarshes), a PRIN 2022 PNRR project funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Cosma, M., Da Lio, C., Donnici, S., and Tosi, L.: Mapping the vulnerability of tidal morphologies to Sea Level Rise through an index-based approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9183, 2025.

EGU25-9335 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Leveraging public data for beach monitoring plan development in coastal regions 

Ružica Rumenović, Morena Galešić Divić, Toni Kekez, and Veljko Srzić

In tourism-oriented coastal regions, beaches provide significant economic value alongside vital ecosystem services, such as habitats for benthic organisms, recreational spaces for local communities, and natural wave energy dissipation. However, these environments face increasing hazards due to anthropogenic influences, compounded by climate change. Developing robust and cost-effective monitoring and modelling plans is essential to ensure the sustainability and resilience of these valuable ecosystems.

This study, conducted within a transboundary cooperation project focused on beach vulnerability and resilience improvement across the eastern Adriatic coast (Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro), explores the application of publicly available data as a baseline for monitoring and modelling efforts at twelve pilot beach sites. Spatially dispersed meteorological data from platforms like Visual Crossing and oceanographic data derived from CMEMS hindcast models and EMODnet bathymetry are assessed for their temporal and spatial coverage, reliability, and limitations. These datasets serve as a foundation for identifying site-specific conditions and knowledge gaps that will be addressed through project-specific monitoring, including photogrammetry campaigns, numerical sediment transport modelling, and physical laboratory experiments on erosion countermeasures.

By leveraging publicly available resources, this study develops practical guidelines for organizing monitoring activities and integrating modelling efforts tailored to the south-eastern Adriatic context. While the approach is specific to this region, it provides insights into balancing resource constraints with the need for detailed environmental data in other coastal settings under similar pressures.

How to cite: Rumenović, R., Galešić Divić, M., Kekez, T., and Srzić, V.: Leveraging public data for beach monitoring plan development in coastal regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9335, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9335, 2025.

EGU25-10579 | Orals | GM8.3

Impact of mid-to late Holocene hydroclimatic variability and sediment dynamics on coastal flooding and human settlement in the Lez delta plain, southern France 

Matthieu Giaime, Jean-Philippe Degeai, Clémence Joseph, Tiphaine Salel, and Gaël Piques

The acceleration of sea level rise caused by global warming increases the risk of coastal flooding for people living on river deltas, as well as the erosion of archaeological sites along the Mediterranean coasts. The inhabitants of deltaic areas from the northwestern Mediterranean were exposed to coastal changes during the Holocene, and especially to geomorphic evolution driven by regression and progradation dynamics. Coastal flooding related to transgression can lead to a reduction in terrestrial areas available for human activities, whereas the emergence of new lands during delta progradation can provide opportunities for the development of cities and agriculture, although it can also increase the vulnerability of coastal infrastructures and settlements to sediment accretion.

The archaeological site of Lattara is one of the oldest coastal cities of the northwestern Mediterranean and is particularly interesting to study the impact of flooding on human settlements. This ancient city was built on a delta lobe of the Lez River during the Iron Age in the late 6th century BCE. Already, Middle Neolithic settlements were present in the northern part of the city. However, the absence of human occupations between ca. 3000 and 800 BCE suggests an abandonment of the site over two millennia. Geoarchaeological and environmental studies showed that this period was characterized by high groundwater levels in the Lez delta plain and relatively deeper water in the lagoon south of Lattara. Coastal flooding could thus explain the absence of human settlements at Lattara in the Late Neolithic and most of the Bronze Age, but this hypothesis needs to be investigated further.

Here we present the relation between hydroclimatic changes, sedimentation, coastal flooding and human settlements in the Lez delta plain during the mid-to late Holocene using bioindicators (ostracods, molluscs), geomorphological features (accommodation space, sediment accumulation rates), hydrological parameters (sea level change, water depth, discharge rates), age models based on radiocarbon dating, and archaeological data. Our data points toward the evidence of low sediment accumulation rates in a humid climate from 6 to 3 kyr cal BCE. These low sedimentation rates in a context of continuous sea level rise led to increasing of an accommodation space in the lagoon.

Our new results are compared with multi-millennial environmental records in the northwestern Mediterranean to evaluate the role of hydroclimate changes on coastal flooding. Besides, hydroclimatic parameters from instrumental data were investigated to determine if the relationships between climate change and hydrological processes over the past millennia were similar to those of the last decades.

How to cite: Giaime, M., Degeai, J.-P., Joseph, C., Salel, T., and Piques, G.: Impact of mid-to late Holocene hydroclimatic variability and sediment dynamics on coastal flooding and human settlement in the Lez delta plain, southern France, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10579, 2025.

EGU25-11383 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

A Process-Based Modelling Approach to Evaluate Alternative Sustainable Land Subsidence Adaptation Pathways in the Netherlands 

Deniz Kılıç, Gilles Erkens, Kim M. Cohen, and Esther Stouthamer

Land subsidence is a slowly progressing phenomenon that often goes unnoticed due to its gradual nature, yet it can significantly compromise long-term sustainability if left unaddressed. This challenge is particularly pronounced in coastal and deltaic regions with limited fluvial sediment input – e.g. the Netherlands, the Po River Basin, the Mekong Delta, the Mississippi Delta – where anthropogenic activities altered water tables, sediment dynamics and ecosystem health, and further such impacts with climate change and sea-level rise are expected. Any robust, future-proof adaptation strategy and spatial planning must therefore account for ongoing land subsidence, if human presence is to be viable.

In the Netherlands, the situation is already severe: approximately 50% of its coastal-deltaic plain now lies below mean sea level (Koster et al., 2018) owing to soft soil consolidation, peat oxidation and mining, accumulated over centuries and never technologically halted. Even more, progressive subsidence has increasing economic costs (Van den Born et. al., 2016). Recognizing the urgency of this problem, the Dutch government and related authorities pay attention and resources at regional and national scale (e.g. platforms, knowledge centres, incentives, directives, regional deals), and several cross-disciplinary research programs have been prompted (e.g. NWA-LOSS, NOBV, DeepNL). Within NWA-LOSS (nwa-loss.nl) our work focuses on the numerical modelling. With partners, we develop and operate the land subsidence model Atlantis (Bootsma et al., 2020) that captures the interplay of soft soil consolidation, peat oxidation, climate change, and human interventions (e.g. agricultural drainage) to predict future spatial and temporal evolution of the Dutch landscape. Employing global sensitivity analyses (Morris screening and Sobol’ indices), we identify the most influential parameters and processes and integrate uncertainty quantification to ensure robust subsidence predictions.

Our results reveal how shallow subsidence evolves under various climate scenarios, pinpointing ‘hotspots’ for targeted adaptation and nature based solutions (e.g. peat regeneration). Critically, our findings underscore the role of subsidence in shaping relative sea-level rise, a driver of coastal vulnerability that can profoundly influence coastal and deltaic biogeochemistry, biomorphodynamics, and hydrodynamics. Incorporating land subsidence into long-term adaptation measures is therefore essential for mitigating climate change impacts and improving the resilience of coastal and estuarine environments worldwide.

References:

Bootsma, H., Kooi, H., Erkens, G. (2020). Atlantis, a tool for producing national predictive land subsidence maps of the Netherlands. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences382, 415-420.

Koster K., Stafleu J., Stouthamer E. (2018). Differential subsidence in the urbanised coastal-deltaic plain of the Netherlands. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences. 2018;97(4):215-227. doi:10.1017/njg.2018.11

Van den Born, G. J., Kragt, F., Henkens, D., Rijken, B., Van Bemmel, B., Van der Sluis, S. (2016). Dalende bodems, Stijgende kosten, Report Planning Agency for the Environment (PBL), report nr. 1064, 93 pp., 2016. 

How to cite: Kılıç, D., Erkens, G., Cohen, K. M., and Stouthamer, E.: A Process-Based Modelling Approach to Evaluate Alternative Sustainable Land Subsidence Adaptation Pathways in the Netherlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11383, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11383, 2025.

EGU25-12372 | Posters on site | GM8.3

Climate control on the channel morphodynamics of the Sittaung River, Myanmar 

Luke Bisson and Kyungsik Choi

The spatio-temporal development of a meandering river is controlled by its channel morphodynamics. In regions of rapid channel evolution, understanding the driving factors of meandering migration is crucial in forecasting the rate and extent of morphological change. Sediment supply and fluvial discharge are the primary influences on migration rate, however climate oscillations are also integral in indirectly regulating migration rate through their control of regional precipitation, as well as the monsoon season of sub-tropical Asia. Despite this, an in-depth investigation into the impact of climate oscillations on meander bend migration remains undocumented. This study presents a satellite-based analysis of multi-decadal climatic forcing on the migration rate of the Sittaung River in Myanmar, through interpretation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mode of ENSO exerts significant climate control on the migration rate of the meandering channels of the Sittaung River, with low-to-average migration rates recorded during dry El Nino events and peak migration rates observed during wet La Nina events. However, this climatic signal may have been obscured by certain local environmental conditions. In cases where meanders faced geological basement, the basement rock inhibited their migration through extension, forcing more rapid migration by way of seaward translation. Consequently, these translating meanders developed to be more elongate, with lower curvatures. Meanders downstream of the approximate tidal limit were less downstream skewed, indicative of tidal modulation, potentially obscuring the impact of fluvially driven climate forcing. Additionally, downstream of a major confluence, the input of sediment and fluvial discharge may have been regulated by upstream anthropogenic activities such as mining and dam construction, leading to greater variability in migration rate downstream of this confluence and further obfuscation of the climate signal.

How to cite: Bisson, L. and Choi, K.: Climate control on the channel morphodynamics of the Sittaung River, Myanmar, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12372, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12372, 2025.

EGU25-13631 | Posters on site | GM8.3

Harnessing Natural Land-Building Processes in Human-Dominated River Deltas: Lessons from the Po River Delta (Italy) 

Alvise Finotello, Valentina Marzia Rossi, Massimiliano Ghinassi, Daniele Pietro Viero, Luca Carniello, Andrea D'Alpaos, SeyedHadi Shamsnia, Andrea Irace, Anmol Raj Mandal, Andrea Berton, Sandra Trifirò, Matteo Mantovani, and Marta Cosma

Continued increases in climate extremes, population growth, natural and human-induced subsidence present a significant threat to the sustainability of many of the world’s river deltas. Hard engineering solutions, such as dikes and river embankments designed to prevent flooding in reclaimed deltaic regions, are proving increasingly unsustainable and may undermine the long-term resilience of deltaic ecosystems.

This challenge is particularly pressing in highly human-modified river deltas, where vast expanses of land have been reclaimed in the past. The combined impact of subsidence, climate change-driven sea-level rise, and intensified storm surge events is exposing reclaimed areas to a growing risk of flooding, saltwater intrusion and soil salinization. These processes will ultimately lead to a devaluation of reclaimed lands, making the continuous maintenance of levees and pumping systems, required to keep these areas dry, economically unfeasible. As a result, when the cost of sustaining reclaimed land outweighs its economic value, abandonment becomes the more likely outcome. Once these low-lying areas are abandoned, they become increasingly vulnerable to dike and levee failure, re-exposing them to natural fluvio-deltaic morphodynamic processes.

In this study, we use Italy’s heavily modified Po River Delta as a case study to illustrate these dynamics. We focus specifically on the seaward-most portion of the subaerial delta topset, where the failure of dikes protecting a previously reclaimed area known as “Isola della Batteria” led to the rapid infill of the area by river-borne sediment and to the formation of approximately 30 hectares of new emergent wetlands within just 30 years.
By integrating field data and remote sensing techniques—including sediment core analyses, UAV LiDAR surveys, ground-based topographic measurements, satellite-derived subsidence rates, historical aerial imagery and topo-bathymetric maps—we reconstruct the morphological evolution of the area over the past 50 years. We then use these data to calibrate a morphodynamic numerical model, which we apply at multiple locations within the Po River Delta to assess the feasibility of managed realignment strategies aimed at creating new wetland habitats of significant ecological and socio-economic value.

Our findings highlight the potentials of controlled dyke-breaching interventions in highly human-modified delta systems characterized by extensive reclaimed land. Such strategies enhance sediment retention on delta plains, promoting vertical accretion at rates that easily exceed projected relative sea-level rise. This process supports the rapid formation of new deltaic wetlands, ultimately strengthening the resilience of deltaic ecosystems as a whole.

This work is part of the research project “Ensuring resilience of the Po River Delta to rising relative sea levels using nature-based solutions for building land and mitigating subsidence (NatResPoNΔ)”, a PRIN 2022 PNRR project funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Finotello, A., Rossi, V. M., Ghinassi, M., Viero, D. P., Carniello, L., D'Alpaos, A., Shamsnia, S., Irace, A., Mandal, A. R., Berton, A., Trifirò, S., Mantovani, M., and Cosma, M.: Harnessing Natural Land-Building Processes in Human-Dominated River Deltas: Lessons from the Po River Delta (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13631, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13631, 2025.

EGU25-13783 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Chasing Cobbles: A Regional Exploration of Composite Beach Morphodynamics 

alex minnigin, Chris Blenkinsopp, and Shasta Marrero

The dynamic nature of coastal hazards has drawn interest in developing, holistic, nature-based, sea defence strategies. Composite beaches are a type of mixed sand-gravel beach regarded as excellent natural coastal defence due to their dynamic stability in changing hydrodynamic conditions (Blenkinsopp et al., 2022a; Bayle et al., 2021).These beaches are distinguished by a dissipative sandy lower foreshore which is backed by a reflective gravel or cobble berm close to the mean high-water level. Wave energy is dissipated along the sandy foreshore, and the steep, porous cobble berm drives swash asymmetry, stabilizing the upper beach and protecting the hinterland by minimizing overtopping (Bayle et al., 2021). Essentially, composite beaches embody the two most stable end-members of the morphodynamic continuum (Blenkinsopp et al., 2022). Recent developments have sought to exploit the morphodynamic stability composite beaches offer by installing a ‘dynamic cobble berm revetment’. These revetments are intended to mimic the cobble berm found naturally on a composite beach. Prototype-scale flume experiments and trial installations along vulnerable sections of the US West Coast have shown promising results in the face of rising sea levels and energetic wave conditions (Blenkinsopp et al., 2022b; Bayle et al., 2021). However, our understanding of composite beach behaviour (processes, responses to storms and longer-term evolution) is distinctly lacking due to the absence of dedicated studies. Therefore, our current definition of composite beaches may not adequately encapsulate the range of sub-morphotypes of composite beaches.

This research tackles our lack of knowledge by conducting one of the first detailed studies of composite beach behaviour on a regional scale. Currently, the term ‘composite beach’ covers a broad variety of different sand-gravel beach morphologies. By analysing a wide range of different composite beach types in a range of locations we will develop a more robust definition of composite beaches and their sub-types. Analysing historic topographic data of UK composite beaches enables us to gain new insights into the general behaviour of these beaches. Initial results indicate that natural cobble berms demonstrate morphological variations in constituting cobble size ranges, crest elevations, slope angles and berm width. These berms undergo relatively minor morphological changes when runup is confined to the seaward slope. In energetic conditions, when overtopping happens, larger changes can occur, but the berm remains dynamically stable rarely losing  cobble volume.

 

  • References

Bayle, P.M., Kaminsky, G.M., Blenkinsopp, C.E., Weiner, H.M. and Cottrell, D., 2021. Behaviour and performance of a dynamic cobble berm revetment during a spring tidal cycle in North Cove, Washington State, USA. Coastal Engineering [Online], 167, p.103898. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.103898

Blenkinsopp, C.E., Bayle, P.M., Martins, K., Foss, O.W., Almeida, L.-P., Kaminsky, G.M., Schimmels, S. and Matsumoto, H., 2022b. Wave runup on composite beaches and dynamic cobble berm revetments. Coastal Engineering [Online], 176, p.104148. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104148.

Casamayor, M., Alonso, I., Valiente, N.G. and Sánchez-García, M.J., 2022. Seasonal response of a composite beach in relation to wave climate. Geomorphology [Online], 408, p.108245. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108245.

Jennings, R. and Shulmeister, J., 2002. A field based classification scheme for gravel beaches. Marine Geology [Online], 186(3–4), pp.211–228. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-3227(02)00314-6

How to cite: minnigin, A., Blenkinsopp, C., and Marrero, S.: Chasing Cobbles: A Regional Exploration of Composite Beach Morphodynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13783, 2025.

EGU25-13802 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Denitrification Hotspots or Nutrient Highways? Modeling the Fate of Nutrients in Coastal River Deltas 

Eleanor Henson and Paola Passalacqua

More than half a billion people worldwide live in coastal river deltas, which provide critical ecosystem services. However, excess nitrate exported from these systems has led to significant environmental challenges, including hypoxic zones like the Gulf of Mexico's dead zone. Islands near the outlet of river deltas can be important last-ditch effort sites for nitrate processing prior to entering the ocean. Over the past decade, research has begun to numerically quantify nutrient transport through delta systems. These studies have traditionally utilized Eulerian models that are spatially-lumped, and nutrient fluxes are largely determined by catchment land use. Additionally, the potential for nutrients to be removed from channels within the islands or secondary channels in delta systems is typically ignored. This research proposes a distributed, Lagrangian modeling framework that follows individual particles through time and space to better understand the fate of nutrients in deltas (and the potential for removal). We accomplish this goal by adding a nutrient transport component to the open-source Python Package dorado, a Lagrangian model for passive particle transport that requires coupling with hydrodynamic outputs. We use dorado to quantify the hydraulic residence time of simulated nitrate particles in Wax Lake Delta of coastal Louisiana. Instead of only measuring nitrate transport through major distributary channels, we model channel-island connectivity, and the consequential differences in residence time distributions as particles “leak” from the channel into island networks. Deltaic islands have the ideal characteristics for increased nitrate processing capacity (slower water velocities, increased vegetation, etc), so these pathways are important to quantify denitrification potential. We couple modeled hydraulic residence time distributions with a first-order nitrate decay model to simulate the removal pathways of nitrate throughout the delta. Results identify the conditions and/or seasons with higher denitrification potential, offering insights into the role of deltas as sinks for excess nutrients. This work demonstrates the importance of deltaic islands in nutrient cycling and highlights how Lagrangian modeling can improve predictions of coastal nutrient dynamics.

How to cite: Henson, E. and Passalacqua, P.: Denitrification Hotspots or Nutrient Highways? Modeling the Fate of Nutrients in Coastal River Deltas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13802, 2025.

EGU25-13956 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Preliminary results of the depositional history of Kuwait Bay for the past millennium suggest a spatially and temporally variable mix of autochthonous and allochthonous sediment 

Justin Cerv, Timothy Dellapenna, Mohammad Al Mukaimi, Huda Alaskar, Jenan Dasti, and Abdulhadi Esmaeil

The purpose of this study is to investigate the depositional history of Kuwait Bay (KB) for the past millennium based on sediment cores.  Kuwait Bay is in the northwest corner of the Arabian (Persian) Gulf, encompasses 720 km2, is semi-enclosed, elliptically shaped, and is an inverse estuary that opens to the east. Kuwait is extremely arid, receiving rainfall typically ranging from 100-120 mm y-1, and KB has no direct fluvial input within its interior.  However, KB does receive sediment from the Tigres-Euphrates River, which empties into the Gulf adjacent to the mouth of KB.   KB also receives sediment from dust storms and through direct precipitation of carbonates from the water column.  Although sedimentation rates and age dates have yet to be generated, if we assume as a rough estimation that sedimentation kept pace with average global sea level rise, which averaged approximately 2 mm y-1 for the past millennium, then 2 m long cores roughly represent millennium time scales.  A total of 28 submersible vibracores, ranging in length from 1-2.5 m, were collected in 2021.  By using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, elemental abundances were analyzed at 1 cm increments. Color spectrophotometry and grain size analysis were also conducted downcore. For all cores, the upper 10-25 cm have elemental abundances and colors that differ from the down core portions, and it is assumed this upper portion represents the Anthropocene.  When considering the pre-Anthropocene portions of the cores, the XRF elemental abundance ratio of Si/Ca was used to differentiate calcium carbonate from siliceous sediment.  The bay was subdivided into the eastern portion proximal to the mouth of the bay, the central portion, distal from either the mouth or the western shore, and the western portion, proximal to the western shoreline.  Although all Si/Ca abundance profiles are “spikey,” there are significant overall trends. Cores from the bay’s interior have overall lower Si/Ca ratios, indicating the cores have a greater abundance of calcium carbonate.  This may potentially indicate either higher auto-precipitation in the bay’s interior or less dilution of the auto-precipitated carbonate.  Cores around the interior western side of the bay have, overall, the highest Si/Ca ratios, suggesting a greater abundance of siliceous minerals.  Much of the dust derived from dust storms from this region is siliceous and probably explains this higher abundance of Si.  Si/Ca profiles from cores from near the mouth of the bay have the broadest range of ratios but overall have higher ratios than from the interior, potentially indicating a variability in advection of Tigres-Euphrates sediment into KB.  Overall, the depositional history suggests a mix of autochthonous sediment sourced from dust storms and the advection of Tigres-Euphrates suspended sediment and the auto-precipitation of allochthonous carbonates.  These are preliminary results of what will become a much larger investigation into the paleoclimate history of the region. 

How to cite: Cerv, J., Dellapenna, T., Al Mukaimi, M., Alaskar, H., Dasti, J., and Esmaeil, A.: Preliminary results of the depositional history of Kuwait Bay for the past millennium suggest a spatially and temporally variable mix of autochthonous and allochthonous sediment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13956, 2025.

EGU25-14159 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Microbial Drivers of Ammonium Accumulation in Holocene Sediments of the Pearl River Delta 

Meiqing Lu, Jiu Jimmy Jiao, Xin Luo, Xiaoyuan Feng, Wenzhao Liang, Shengchao Yu, Yanling Qi, Hailong Li, and Meng Li

Delta ecosystems are critical zones connecting terrestrial and marine environments, with delta sediments preserving long-term records of land-sea interactions and environmental changes. The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is characterized by elevated ammonium levels in groundwater, posing risks to water quality and environmental health. This study investigates the microbial processes driving ammonium generation and accumulation across distinct depositional zones (terrestrial-dominated, transitional, and marine-dominated) in Holocene sediments of the PRD. Microbial communities exhibit stratification along environmental gradients. Bacterial communities (dominated by Pseudomonadota) reflect influences from both terrestrial and marine environments, while archaeal communities (led by Bathyarchaeia) resemble those in marine anaerobic ecosystems. Fermentation is the primary process driving ammonium production across all zones, with negligible ammonium consumption via nitrification and anammox. Secondary processes include nitrate reduction in terrestrial-dominated zones and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) in transitional and marine-dominated zones. Sulfate reduction predominating over nitrate reduction in marine-dominated zones. Brevirhabdus, a key bacterial contributor to fermentation and DNRA, links early marine deposition to ammonium dynamics in deltaic sediments. Environmental factors such as electrical conductivity (EC), carbon isotope composition (δ13C), and sediment depth strongly influence microbial community structure and function, emphasizing the critical role of geochemical processes in shaping microbial adaptation. Purifying selection dominates metabolic gene evolution, with functional genes related to sulfate and nitrate reduction highly conserved in marine-dominated zones, while fermentation genes exhibit depth-dependent. These findings reveal the interplay among depositional history, microbial adaptation, and biogeochemical processes, linking ammonium dynamics to climate-driven environmental changes, thus providing a framework to address groundwater quality risks in deltaic systems.

How to cite: Lu, M., Jiao, J. J., Luo, X., Feng, X., Liang, W., Yu, S., Qi, Y., Li, H., and Li, M.: Microbial Drivers of Ammonium Accumulation in Holocene Sediments of the Pearl River Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14159, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14159, 2025.

This study examines the impact of human-induced changes to the lower Brazos-San Bernard delta on sedimentation rates and sediment sources filling the estuarine lakes within its western inland area. The delta began forming in 1929 when the Brazos River mouth was relocated 10 km west of its original position, placing it 5 km from the San Bernard River's mouth. Over time, the wave-dominated Brazos Delta expanded westward, closing the San Bernard River mouth and extending beyond it. 

In 1949, the Gulf Coast Intercoastal Waterway (GCIWW) canal was completed, bisecting the Cedar Lakes, a series of five brackish lakes, and enabling sediment transport to these lakes. The San Bernard River drainage basin, situated between the larger Brazos and Colorado Rivers, occasionally receives floodwaters from the Colorado River during high-discharge events like Hurricane Harvey (2017). The geological differences between the Brazos and Colorado Rivers facilitated the development of distinct sediment "fingerprints" using X-ray fluorescence, color spectrometry, imaging, and grain size analysis. 

Eighteen vibracores collected across the study area, combined with 137Cs dating, enabled the identification of deposits formed before and after the GCIWW's creation. Findings revealed that prior to the GCIWW and the Brazos River mouth's relocation, Colorado River-derived deposits dominated the region. Following these alterations, the western Cedar Lakes recorded Gulf of Mexico overwash sands and occasional Brazos River flood deposits. The GCIWW acts as both a conduit for Brazos River sediment and a barrier to Colorado River sediment. 

North of the GCIWW, in lakes isolated from the canal, sediment records show a mixture of Brazos and Colorado River deposits. East of the San Bernard River, deposits include Colorado River material, Gulf of Mexico overwash, or layered deposits from both the Brazos and Colorado Rivers, reflecting simultaneous flooding events. Most Cedar Lake cores exhibit Pleistocene deposits at their base, overlaid by 50–90 cm of pre-GCIWW sediments and 90–130 cm of post-GCIWW deposits. This suggests a significant increase in sedimentation rates after the canal's construction. 

In summary, the GCIWW's creation and the Brazos River mouth relocation have significantly altered sediment sources and deposition rates in the Cedar Lakes and adjacent brackish lakes of the Brazos-San Bernard delta.  The results of this study are being used by various stakeholders to develop a better management plan for this region.

How to cite: Dellapenna, T., Robbins, C., Majzlik, E., Zhang, Y., and Ahmari, H.: Assessing mixed sediment sources of the brackish lakes of the Brazos-San Bernard River Delta of the northwest Gulf of Mexico and what it can tell us about how anthropogenic alterations have impacted sediment sources and sedimentation rates, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14528, 2025.

EGU25-14975 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3 | Highlight

Morphodynamic impacts of sand mining in river deltas 

Anne Baar and Christopher Hackney

In recent decades, sand extraction from rivers has accelerated to meet the needs of economic development. Locally, this results in river bed and bank erosion, but it is unknown how these local disturbances affect the larger scale morphodynamic feedback and whether sustainable sand-mining strategies can be designed to minimise impacts. Our objective is to test dredging strategies in a river-estuary Delft3D model and to quantify the resulting morphodynamic response of the system. We systematically varied the number and intensity of dredging sites along the river, relative to the sediment supply from upstream. The results show that the system equilibrium is disturbed when the amount of mined sediment exceeds the sediment supply from the river. We found that when intensive sand mining occurs at a small number of sites, the dredged area is able to recover over time after mining ceases, while the downstream estuary continues to erode as a result of upstream sand extraction. In contrast, less intensive sand mining, spread over a larger number of sites, results in an overall lower river bed that continues to erode and export sediment after sand mining ceases, while the non-dredged estuary is relatively stable. With our results, we aim to describe guidelines for more sustainable sand mining.

 

How to cite: Baar, A. and Hackney, C.: Morphodynamic impacts of sand mining in river deltas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14975, 2025.

Deltas are unique landforms that develop where rivers debouch into standing bodies of water such as oceans or lakes. Characterized by intricate networks of interconnected channels, they evolve in response to dynamic environmental factors, including sediment particle size, sediment supply, vegetation growth, waves, tides, and climate change. Among these factors, tidal currents play a significant role by continually modifying delta morpholodynamics. However, quantitative measures for assessing tidal influence on delta morphology remain challenging and are poorly understood. Here, we conducted hydro-morphodynamic modeling using Delft3D, varying tidal amplitude and the ratio of mud and sand supply to capture changes over a broad range of timescales. Furthermore, we measured bifurcation lengths, the distances between two adjacent bifurcation points along the channel centerlines in deltaic channel networks, and analyzed the spatial pattern of these lengths. The results indicate that higher tidal amplitude leads to a spatial increase in bifurcation length with bifurcation orders and that a higher proportion of muddy composition responds more sensitively to the tidal effects. Channel geometry, governed by fluid flow properties and sediment compositions, and the evolution of mouth bars collectively explain the observations in this study. We propose that stronger tidal currents and cohesive sediment composition facilitate channel deepening and narrowing, ultimately increasing the advection length and thus bifurcation length. Our study aims to elucidate the spatial pattern of branching channel networks, providing a quantitative measure compared to conventional methods for predicting delta morphology. Building on these findings, we can further enhance our understanding of how channel networks evolve across global scales under a variety of coastal processes.

How to cite: Lee, J. and Kim, W.: Investigating and quantifying tidal effects on the formation of bifurcated channel networks in modern river deltas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15368, 2025.

EGU25-15430 | Orals | GM8.3

How mangroves and past land-use change have affected compound flood events in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta 

Joshua Kiesel, Katharina Seeger, Philip Minderhoud, Anaïs Couasnon, Hong Quan Nguyen, Tarun Sadana, Anne Van Loon, and Paolo Scussolini

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is among the vastest low-lying areas in the world and particularly exposed to relative sea-level rise, pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding. While new studies have shown how the impacts of climate change and land subsidence will further increase the vulnerability of the delta, current flooding characteristics are also shaped by land use and its changes over time, including the distribution of mangroves and urban sprawl. However, the implications of delta-wide land-use changes and the role of coastal habitats for driving flood dynamics in the VMD remain unknown. In addition, there is a lack of analyses that integrate all hydrometeorological forcings in a compound setting (pluvial, riverine and coastal) and use two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling across the entire delta including the Ho-Chi-Minh-City province.

We address these shortcomings by applying a state-of-the-art two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (SFINCS) across the VMD, and incorporating latest digital elevation models and land-use data from 1985 and 2022. We touch upon difficulties in validating large-scale hydrodynamic models for vast low-lying delta regions and highlight the importance of high-quality digital elevation models (DEMs) for investigating the role of mangroves in nature-based coastal defense schemes by comparing the modelling results obtained for different DEMs (FABDEM vs DeltaDTM). Furthermore, we attribute characteristics of recent flood events to land-use land-cover change since 1985 and sea-level rise, and investigate the role of existing mangrove forests for flood risk mitigation. Preliminary results emphasize the contribution of land use change for compound flood dynamics and point towards the high value of mangroves as a natural surge buffer across the VMD, but specifically in the provinces Ca Mau and Ho-Chi-Minh-City.

How to cite: Kiesel, J., Seeger, K., Minderhoud, P., Couasnon, A., Nguyen, H. Q., Sadana, T., Van Loon, A., and Scussolini, P.: How mangroves and past land-use change have affected compound flood events in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15430, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15430, 2025.

Gravel barriers play an important role in protecting coastal communities and infrastructure along mid- to high-latitude shorelines. However, their ability to adapt and fulfil their protective role in the context of a global sea level rise and intensifying storm events remain uncertain. One the major obstacles to the creation of modelling tools for predicting the evolution of these coastal features is the diversity of their morpho-sedimentary character. Although gravel beaches are all characterized by a predominance of coarse-grained particles (> 2 mm), they are often mixed with varying amounts of finer sand particles, resulting in different beach sub-categories (e.g. pure gravel, composite, mixed sand-and-gravel). In addition to sediment variability (which links to sediment availability and supply), gravel beaches, like their sandy counterparts, organise themselves into various barrier landforms, such as spits, barrier beaches or beach ridge plains. It is commonly accepted that the morphodynamics of coastal barriers over several decades or centuries is closely tied to their geomorphological heritage that controls both accommodation space and sediment supply. The analysis of the environments surrounding the barrier is therefore just as important as the characterization of the barrier itself. Systemic approaches are usually considered at a local scale and rarely applied beyond the immediate sedimentary cell. To enhance consistency and gain a more comprehensive understanding of coastal barrier contexts and controls across the broader range of geomorphic contexts, a new approach of analysing these coastal features is needed.

An inventory of over 250 sites has identified gravelly shorelines around the UK, which have been subdivided according to beach and barrier types. Here, we demonstrate a framework for systematic morphometric analysis of gravel beach-barrier systems at the national scale. Barrier metrics (e.g. width, height, volume), inland topography, nearshore bathymetry and habitat mapping are extracted at a system scale that is divided into multiple segments to facilitate categorisation. The results represent a step forward towards a typology classification of gravel barrier systems. They also allow to highlight the importance of the various data sets when considering this approach, as well as identifying important gaps in data availability.  

How to cite: Pancrazzi, L. and Burningham, H.: Evaluation of the morpho-sedimentary diversity and multi-annual to multi-decadal dynamics of gravel barrier systems around the UK, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17923, 2025.

EGU25-18006 | ECS | Orals | GM8.3

A window to the future: balancing urban protection and ecosystem preservation in flood-regulated shallow coastal areas, insights from the Lagoon of Venice 

Alessandro Michielotto, Alvise Finotello, Davide Tognin, Riccardo A. Mel, Luca Carniello, and Andrea D'Alpaos

Low-lying coastal areas are vital hubs, hosting invaluable ecosystems and supporting large human populations for centuries. Nonetheless, these regions face growing threats from climate change, sea-level rise, and intensifying extreme weather events, negatively affecting the quality of life in coastal communities. In response, storm-surge barriers have been widely adopted as a global solution to mitigate coastal flooding risks, with numerous projects proposed and implemented over the past two decades, although questions arise on the long-term ecological response.

This study focuses on the flood-regulated Venice Lagoon (Italy), a pilot example of an artificially controlled estuarine system, to explore the future of urban coastal environments as they navigate the challenges of balancing wetland conservation with the resilience of coastal communities—two goals that are often interdependent yet conflicting. Using a custom-built two-dimensional numerical model, we investigate four years of floodgate operations (2020–2023) to compare different flood regulation scenarios and their effects on urban flooding risk and ecosystem health. Specifically, we simulated tidal and wind-wave-induced circulations across the Venice Lagoon and compared the results of the real-case flood-regulated condition with those of a hypothetically non-regulated scenario. Additionally, we examined a third, hypothetical, flood-regulated scenario in which floodgate closures are managed using an optimized approach to minimize their frequency and duration.

Our analysis shows that the current operational strategy, while effectively protecting Venice and surrounding urban settlements from flooding, significantly disrupts the submersion dynamics of salt marshes, thereby reducing sediment deposition and fostering ecosystem degradation. However, this study demonstrates the feasibility of adaptive, sustainable management strategies that balance the competing demands of mitigating flood risk while preserving valuable coastal ecosystems, enhancing their resilience to climate change as a whole.

How to cite: Michielotto, A., Finotello, A., Tognin, D., Mel, R. A., Carniello, L., and D'Alpaos, A.: A window to the future: balancing urban protection and ecosystem preservation in flood-regulated shallow coastal areas, insights from the Lagoon of Venice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18006, 2025.

EGU25-18769 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Understanding Crevasse Splay Evolution in Po River Delta (Italy) via Satellite Imagery: Implications for Coastal Resilience 

Anmol Raj Mandal, Valentina M. Rossi, Alvise Finotello, Massimiliano Ghinassi, Andrea Irace, Luca Zaggia, Andrea Berton, Sandra Trifiró, Matteo Mantovani, and Marta Cosma

Delta plains are crucial landscapes in many respects. They serve as hotspots for biodiversity, provide fertile land for agricultural practices, and act as natural buffers against coastal storms. However, they face greatly increased risks due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Previous human interventions based on hard engineering solutions to remediate these coastal systems have largely failed in the long run. Besides being expensive, these measures have disrupted the land-building processes of natural wetlands, compromising the sustainability of these coastal ecosystems and making them more vulnerable to flood risks. This underscores the urgent need for more sustainable, nature-based approaches to realign and restore these vital ecosystems.

River diversion has emerged as an effective strategy for restoring wetlands in river-dominated deltas. This approach involves breaching river levees to restore water flow and sediment deposition in low-lying inundated areas of the deltaic system. The process generates new landforms, such as crevasse splays and crevasse deltas, which provide a foundation for wetland plants to thrive, fostering the development of new wetland ecosystems.

This work focuses on a crevasse delta in the "Isola della Batteria" region, located in the northeastern part of the Po River delta (Italy). The morphological evolution of the area is studied through the analysis of aerial photographs and satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 (2016–2024), Landsat-8 (2013–2016), and Landsat-7 (2009–2013) using QGIS, complemented by sedimentary core and LiDAR data. The study area was previously reclaimed for agricultural purposes but later succumbed to subsidence and became inundated, leading to its abandonment. Between 1999 and 2000, a fluvial flood caused a breach in the levee, initiating the formation of a crevasse delta. By around 2011, the crevasse delta emerged as a subaerial feature and has continued to grow, with vegetation (reeds) progressively colonizing the area and contributing to its development. The newly formed wetland area is approximately 30 hectares. 

The results of this work help to characterize the morphodynamic and depositional elements evolution of a crevasse delta developed in a highly anthropized river delta systems, thereby informing cost-effective strategies for nature-based restoration projects in deltaic wetlands.

This work is part of the research project “Ensuring resilience of the Po River Delta to rising relative sea levels using nature-based solutions for building land and mitigating subsidence (NatResPoNΔ)  ”, a PRIN 2022 PNRR project funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Mandal, A. R., Rossi, V. M., Finotello, A., Ghinassi, M., Irace, A., Zaggia, L., Berton, A., Trifiró, S., Mantovani, M., and Cosma, M.: Understanding Crevasse Splay Evolution in Po River Delta (Italy) via Satellite Imagery: Implications for Coastal Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18769, 2025.

EGU25-18993 | Orals | GM8.3

Nature-based solutions for resilient deltaic coasts: an example from a crevasse delta in the Po River Delta (Italy)  

Valentina Rossi, Alvise Finotello, Massimiliano Ghinassi, Andrea Irace, Luca Zaggia, Anmol Raj Mandal, Andrea Berton, Sandra Trifiró, Matteo Mantovani, and Marta Cosma

Delta plains are vulnerable environments, chiefly due to their low elevation, occurrence of highly dynamic depositional processes, high population density and anthropogenic pressure, and threats coming from climate change, more extreme weather events and accelerating rates of relative sea-level rise. Anthropic activities and interventions, typically aimed at reclaiming deltaic lands for agricultural, urban, and industrial purposes, have significantly modified the hydro-morphodynamic behavior of fluvio-deltaic environments, making the reclaimed land hydrologically disconnected from the river and starving natural wetlands of sediments.

A paradigm change in river-delta management plans is currently underway, from hard infrastructures to new approaches designed to “work with the river”, leading to a broad interest in so-called “nature-based” solutions to restore and create new deltaic lands.

The Po River Delta represents a prominent example of a strongly engineered deltaic system with compromised long-term sustainability. This work focuses on a crevasse delta recently formed in an abandoned and flooded embanked area in the Po Delta, which demonstrates that natural deltaic dynamics can occur also in strongly anthropogenically-modified deltaic plains and effectively build new emerged land. We used field analyses (collection of sediment cores with a hand auger corer) and remotely sensed data to characterize the sedimentary facies and morphosedimentary structure of the crevasse delta.

The study area was reclaimed and used through the 1950s and 1970s for agriculture. In the mid-1970s, levee breaching caused seawater inundation, after which the area was abandoned and partially colonized by reeds. The reclaimed land was hydrologically disconnected from the river and eventually sea level rise and subsidence caused the flooding of the entire area, evidenced in the stratigraphy by a laterally persistent serpulid-rich marker horizon. This situation, with only fine grained sediments deposited from suspension and bioturbation, persisted until 1999-2000, when a fluvial flood caused a natural breaching in the levees and re-establishment of natural deltaic processes and wetlands, with the formation of intertidal and vegetated crevasse delta lobes.

Through the sedimentological analysis of drilled cores, aerial and satellite images and their mutual correlation, this work aims to define and reconstruct the architecture and the morphosedimentary evolution of this crevasse delta, improving our knowledge of natural systems resilience: by reconnecting the river to its wetlands, we can reduce land loss and restore deltaic coasts by harnessing their land-building capacity.

This work is part of the research project “Ensuring resilience of the Po River Delta to rising relative sea levels using nature-based solutions for building land and mitigating subsidence (NatResPoNΔ), a PRIN 2022 PNRR project funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

How to cite: Rossi, V., Finotello, A., Ghinassi, M., Irace, A., Zaggia, L., Mandal, A. R., Berton, A., Trifiró, S., Mantovani, M., and Cosma, M.: Nature-based solutions for resilient deltaic coasts: an example from a crevasse delta in the Po River Delta (Italy) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18993, 2025.

EGU25-19052 | ECS | Posters on site | GM8.3

Sediment Accretion Dynamics and Environmental Drivers in CoastalWetlands: Insights from the Wax Lake Delta 

Alessia Ruffini, Davide Tognin, Luca Carniello, and Nicoletta Tambroni

This study analyses sediment accretion, river discharge, and wind dynamics in coastal wetlands combining data from the Delta-X project, the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Data covers the period from 2020 to 2023. Sediment accretion data from feldspar marker horizons in the Wax Lake Delta were processed to evaluate organic carbon content and bulk density variations across different hydrogeomorphic zones. Discharge measurements were obtained from USGS monitoring sites, while wind speed data came from NOAA stations. Wind data were filtered using speed and direction thresholds to isolate storm conditions significantly affecting sediment transport processes. All data were processed with MATLAB, aligning all datasets for time-series analysis and exploring interactions between hydrodynamic and atmospheric factors. Statistical and computational analyses explored seasonal sedimentation patterns and the effects of storm events. The results show significant spatial variability, with sediment accretion rates ranging from approximately 17 to 115 mm/year. Storm events with wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s blowing from the sea with prevailing directions between 90° and 270° strongly influence sediment deposition, driven by wind-induced water level changes. Intertidal zones, where accretion is vital for wetland resilience, exhibited elevated sensitivity to discharge peaks and wind-driven dynamics. Sedimentation patterns reveal that seasonal high-flow events are key to sediment supply, particularly during spring and fall. These findings advance our understanding of sediment transport mechanisms in dynamic wetland systems and could suggest strategies for sustainable sediment management. Insights are particularly relevant also for flood-regulated systems, such as the Venice Lagoon (Italy), where altered sediment transport dynamics are challenging for wetland survival and critical ecosystem service maintenance.

How to cite: Ruffini, A., Tognin, D., Carniello, L., and Tambroni, N.: Sediment Accretion Dynamics and Environmental Drivers in CoastalWetlands: Insights from the Wax Lake Delta, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19052, 2025.

Floods are one of India’s most catastrophic natural disasters, causing extensive loss of life and property. Recent research highlights that compound floods—arising from the interplay of multiple drivers—pose greater risks than individual flood events. Although compound flood drivers like precipitation and storm surge, precipitation and runoff, and others have been the focus of recent research globally, very limited research has been done on these flood drivers in India. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive compound flood analysis of Peninsular India river basins from 1980 to 2023, utilizing precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture data. Extreme events were identified using a certain percentile threshold (95th and 99th percentiles) for all the parameters and each parameter was initially subjected to a univariate analysis. The preliminary results indicate that individual drivers provide limited insights of these flood drivers. To address this, we employed a bivariate copula-based approach to estimate joint distributions at varying percentiles (25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, and 95th percentile). The analysis using copula was focused to determine of exceedance probability, conditional probability, joint return period, and conditional return period for the paired variables: precipitation-runoff, precipitation-soil moisture, and runoff-soil moisture pairs, respectively. Our results illustrate that, especially in instances where there are multiple contributing components, bivariate analyses provide deeper insights into comprehending the complexity of flood dynamics. Additionally, it has been observed that some regions in our research region had shorter return durations and higher exceedance probabilities, suggesting that compound flood events of lower severity occur frequently. Identical patterns were noted for conditional return durations and conditional probabilities. These results underscore the critical importance of understanding the interconnections among flood drivers for effective flood risk estimation. Our study provides valuable insights for enhancing India’s flood management strategies by identifying disaster-prone regions and informing policymakers in the development of targeted mitigation measures.

How to cite: Mukherjee, A., Poonia, V., and Swarnkar, S.: Probabilistic Evaluation of Compound Flooding in Peninsular India: A Copula-Based Analysis of Precipitation, Runoff, and Soil Moisture , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-386, 2025.

EGU25-847 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

Seasonality change in ERA5 convective precipitation in the Greater Alpine Region. 

Giovanni Saglietto and Olivia Ferguglia

Convective precipitation plays a crucial role in extreme weather events, significantly influencing regional hydrological patterns, especially in topographically complex areas such as the Greater Alpine Region (GAR). Despite its importance, the study of convective precipitation remains limited due to its high spatial and temporal variability, which poses challenges for accurate observation and representation in climate models. Reanalysis datasets, such as ERA5, offer a valuable resource for overcoming these challenges, providing consistent, high-resolution data derived from both observational records and model outputs. However, the convective component of precipitation in ERA5 remains insufficiently explored, particularly regarding extreme events and seasonal trends. This study investigates the convective component of precipitation in the GAR using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, focusing on extreme precipitation and their seasonality. By applying extreme precipitation indices from the ETCCDI framework, we identify a significant increase in the convective fraction of precipitation in recent decades, particularly during summer extreme events, along with an extension of the summer convective season. Trends in monthly precipitation are found to be largely driven by changes in the convective component, emphasising its growing influence on regional precipitation patterns. Additionally, the study is extended to CMIP6 global climate models, providing further insight into the representation of convective precipitation in climate projections. This work contributes to advancing the understanding of convective processes in climate models, emphasizing a critical gap in the current representation of precipitation in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Saglietto, G. and Ferguglia, O.: Seasonality change in ERA5 convective precipitation in the Greater Alpine Region., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-847, 2025.

EGU25-973 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

Elevation dependent effects of precipitation on river discharge at different spatio-temporal scales 

Vikas Kumar Kushwaha, Luca Lombardo, Anna Basso, Alberto Viglione, and Enrico Arnone

The link between climate extremes and river floods is complex and greatly affected by regional characteristics. River discharges are highly dependent on elevation and size of catchment in mountainous regions. This study explores the effects of orography on the precipitation-discharge relationship in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR). We make use of  daily discharge data and several reanalysis and observation datasets. The region is stratified into low (LE), and high (HE) elevation categories to assess variations in discharge responses. The correlation of discharges with precipitation at HE shows stronger relationship during the autumn season (September-November), while LE exhibits a stronger association in summer (June-August). Coarser resolution (>0.25o) datasets show degradation of the association of precipitation with river discharge at both elevation categories,  although with a larger sensitivity of HE  to decreasing spatial resolution (i.e. 0.10o to 1o degree) as compared to the LE category. Significant sensitivity to spatio-temporal scales is found also in the intensity and duration of the climate extremes (ETCCDI indices) and their relationship with discharges in the GAR. This study emphasizes the advantages of high-resolution, multi-scale approaches to understand the intensity and duration of climate extremes and their impacts on river discharges. An improved framework integrating climate and orographic indices is essential to identify the complex relationships governing flood extremes in the GAR. The improved framework will contribute to the development of diagnostic tools and enhance the skill of future flood extreme projections by climate models.

How to cite: Kushwaha, V. K., Lombardo, L., Basso, A., Viglione, A., and Arnone, E.: Elevation dependent effects of precipitation on river discharge at different spatio-temporal scales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-973, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-973, 2025.

EGU25-1036 | ECS | Orals | NH1.4

Reliability of Climate Information to Forecast Season-Ahead Flood Quantiles for Indian Catchments 

Abinesh Ganapathy and Ankit Agarwal

Forecasting floods (peak flows/quantiles) with significant lead time is crucial for effective water resources management. Traditionally, it has been carried out by forcing meteorological drivers onto the hydrological models. However, season-ahead flood forecasting remains challenging due to the limitations of weather forecasting models and the complexities associated with multiple model-chain linkages. Thus, to circumvent this, we applied a climate-informed approach to forecast season-ahead flood quantiles. Briefly, a climate-informed model comprises 1) selection of predictands, 2) identification of suitable large-scale climate predictors that control the predictands, and 3) derivation of a statistical link between predictands and predictors. In our study, we condition the probability distribution parameters of flood samples with large-scale climate predictors, focusing specifically on sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. The rationale behind this approach lies in the established linkage of SST in the Pacific and Indian Oceans to the Indian Monsoon system. To minimise the anthropogenic signals, we restricted our analysis to the gauging stations without significant reservoir influences by filtering the stations with reservoir indices less than 0.1. Both linear and nonlinear relations between the climate predictors and predictands have been applied in this study. Bayesian inference is used to estimate the parametric values of the Climate-Informed model. Furthermore, the selection of the suitable climate predictor and the nature of their relationship to a specific gauge is based on the widely applicable selection criterion (WAIC). WAIC computes log posterior predictive density and adjusts the overfitting using the effective number of parameters; the model with the least WAIC value is preferred. We assessed the skill of the climate-informed model on flood quantile forecasting by performing a leave-one-out cross-validation technique. Various performance metrics, including both deterministic and probabilistic measures, have been used to assess the prediction skill of the model in reference to the stationary model. Overall, our results suggest that for the majority of the gauges, climate indices have the potential to forecast flood-quantiles season ahead. While this initial forecast can inform decision-makers regarding expected flood quantiles, it is recommended that this method be complemented with traditional approaches that account for local catchment behaviour.

How to cite: Ganapathy, A. and Agarwal, A.: Reliability of Climate Information to Forecast Season-Ahead Flood Quantiles for Indian Catchments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1036, 2025.

In recent years, extreme runoff has been affected by increasing climate change, which causes non-stationary behaviors in extreme runoff series. Climate change is driven by external forcing and internal variability. However, the role of these two factors in runoff variability remains unclear. Taking the historical period as the baseline, this study employs four Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs) to investigate future changes in extreme runoff represented by annual maximum 1-day runoff (AM1R) over China and to evaluate the impacts of external forcing and internal variability on these changes. A decomposition-based non-stationary frequency analysis method is proposed to estimate the frequency changes of extreme runoff events, which incorporates components of runoff influenced by external forcing and internal variability. Two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) are selected for the future. The results show that the catchments with increased AM1R are more than those with decreased AM1R under SSP-2.4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for all SMILEs, with the catchments showing decreased AM1R mainly in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and northeastern China. The impact of external forcing on runoff is stronger than that of internal variability at more than 35% and 62% of catchments for all SMILEs under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The catchments with significant trends of AM1R are mainly in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, while those are mainly in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and southwestern China under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. For changes in the frequency of extreme runoff events, corresponding to the 50-yr return level of AM1R in the historical period, the return period is projected to become shorter in at least 66% of catchments for all SMILEs under the two scenarios. The study indicates that extreme runoff events are likely to become more frequent in the future, which is important for the flood prevention policy.

How to cite: Liu, Y. and Chen, J.: Extreme runoff variation and non-stationary frequency analysis based on external forcing and internal variability decomposition, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2720, 2025.

EGU25-3278 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

Atmospheric moisture linkages to flood inducing Multiday extreme precipitation in India 

Deepak Pandidurai, Akash Singh Raghuvanshi, and Ankit Agarwal

Extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense worldwide, significantly elevating the risk of devastating floods. India, as a hydrologically vulnerable region, experienced recurrent floods that lead to substantial economic losses and fatalities. This study explores the atmospheric drivers and moisture linkages responsible for multi-day extreme precipitation events that resulted in meteorological floods across India. Severe meteorological flood events were identified across India using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) database. The study examines the interplay between Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) & Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) at different vertical layers of the atmosphere, and precipitation at hourly timescales. Results highlight the critical role of elevated moisture transport in the lower atmosphere, which intensifies prior to flood events. Spatial analysis reveals a strong correspondence between IWV and precipitation patterns, suggesting that IWV provides a more consistent spatial signal for extreme precipitation events than IVT. The findings indicate that sustained moisture influx alone is insufficient to trigger extreme precipitation. However, its interaction with local atmospheric instability and synoptic-scale disturbances creates a conducive environment for prolonged precipitation, culminating in floods. This study underscores the importance of atmospheric moisture dynamics in driving extreme precipitation events and calls for deeper investigation into regional moisture budgets to improve flood prediction and mitigation strategies. 

Keywords: Meteorological floods, Atmospheric moisture transport, Multi-day extreme precipitation, Flood drivers. 

How to cite: Pandidurai, D., Raghuvanshi, A. S., and Agarwal, A.: Atmospheric moisture linkages to flood inducing Multiday extreme precipitation in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3278, 2025.

EGU25-3512 | Orals | NH1.4

Shifting Flood Regimes Under Contradictory Precipitation Trends 

Efrat Morin, Yair Rinat, Moshe Armon, Yaniv Goldschmidt, Raz Nussbaum, and Francesco Marra

Global warming is driving an increase in extreme precipitation events across many regions worldwide, often leading to intensified flooding. However, other changing precipitation characteristics may counterbalance this effect. These include reductions in total event precipitation, precipitation coverage area, duration, and frequency. The interplay of these often-contradictory trends remains poorly understood, with limited mapping and quantification available.
Through a series of studies focusing on the eastern Mediterranean region, we identify this area as susceptible to these contrasting precipitation trends. Our research reveals a decline in average precipitation and the number of wet days, alongside an increase in extreme precipitation events for return periods ranging from 10 to 100 years. Furthermore, storm total precipitation, coverage area, and duration decrease while conditional precipitation intensities rise.
When these trends are incorporated into hydrological models to simulate catchment responses and flood impacts, the role of soil moisture emerges as a critical factor in flood regulation. Due to lower precipitation amounts and wet days number, average soil moisture decreases. Despite heightened precipitation intensity, this leads to diminished runoff in most cases. Additionally, smaller storm sizes reduce runoff-contributing areas, resulting in lower flow discharges within concentrating channels. However, urbanization amplifies these dynamics, as urban areas are more sensitive to increased precipitation intensities due to limited soil moisture regulation. Consequently, in future climate scenarios, the largest runoff events produce higher peak discharges and total runoff compared to historical conditions. In contrast, lower-intensity events exhibit reduced peak and total runoff. These effects are intensified as urban impervious surfaces expand, making precipitation intensity a dominant driver of urban runoff.
Our findings suggest that floods are not universally intensifying, even in the context of more extreme precipitation. The dampening effects of other precipitation properties can offset flood magnitudes, highlighting the complexity of flood behavior under changing climate conditions.

How to cite: Morin, E., Rinat, Y., Armon, M., Goldschmidt, Y., Nussbaum, R., and Marra, F.: Shifting Flood Regimes Under Contradictory Precipitation Trends, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3512, 2025.

EGU25-4110 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

Weather Regimes and Extreme Precipitation in the Great Alpine Region 

Ilaria Tessari, Ignazio Giuntoli, and Susanna Corti

This study investigates the relation between Euro-Atlantic large-scale atmospheric circulation and extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Great Alpine Region (GAR). We analyze the connection between weather regimes (WRs)—recurrent and quasi-stationary circulation patterns—and EPEs to assess temporal and spatial variations.

The analysis covers the period 1940–2023, using daily geopotential height data at 500 hPa and daily total precipitation data from ERA5 reanalysis. WRs classification mainly follows the methodology outlined by Grams et al. (2017), enabling year-round characterization of atmospheric patterns, which are then linked to average precipitation and EPEs, defined as precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of the distribution and an intensity greater than 15 mm/day (Q95R15).

Our results show diversities in the average precipitation patterns over the GAR when different regimes occur. In particular, Scandinavian Trough (ScTr), Greenland Blocking (GrBL), Scandinavian Blocking (ScBL) and Atlantic Ridge (AR) seem mostly connected with average precipitation, whose intensity varies according to the season.

Relating WRs and extreme precipitation, we observe that spatially the association between WRs and EPEs varies across GAR sub-regions and depends on the season. We detect higher frequencies of occurrence for ScTr, GrBL, ScBL, AR and Atlantic Trough (ATr) when precipitation above Q95R15 occurs. For instance, during autumn (SON), EPEs are primarily linked to ScTr, ScBL and AR regimes; during winter (DJF) we observe ScTr, GrBL, ScBL, AR and ATr instead. During spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) a clear association is elusive up to now, needing further analysis to be clarified.

Investigations into different sub-periods are ongoing, in order to obtain more insights about how decadal changes due to forced and/or internal variability in the Euro-Atlantic circulation affect the occurrence of EPEs in the GAR.

How to cite: Tessari, I., Giuntoli, I., and Corti, S.: Weather Regimes and Extreme Precipitation in the Great Alpine Region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4110, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4110, 2025.

EGU25-4431 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

Impact attribution of European floods: towards an operational system 

Dominik Paprotny, Aloïs Tilloy, Paweł Terefenko, Matthias Mengel, and Anaïs Couasnon

Floods are an ever-present risk to society and economy in Europe, influenced by both climatic and socioeconomic drivers. An accurate and timely attribution of impacts is important for risk management, “loss and damage” debate and public communication in context of climate change. Here, we discuss the opportunities and challenges of operationalizing attribution for European flood impacts in the framework of Horizon Europe project “Compound extremes attribution of climate change: towards an operational service” (COMPASS). The prospective operational service would build upon the framework for attribution of historical flood impacts for 42 European countries. The work so far includes an extensive modelling chain covering both riverine and coastal floods that can reconstruct temporal changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability to quantify their influence on the observed flood impacts. It considers drivers such as climate change, catchment alteration, population and economic growth, land use change, and evolution of flood precaution and adaptation. High-resolution datasets with long time series are used to first reconstruct each flood event under the factual (historical) scenario, and then under counterfactual scenarios in which a particular climatic or socioeconomic driver is set to 1950 conditions. In this way, the role of each driver can be quantified relative to a common temporal benchmark. In total, 1729 impactful floods occurring between 1950 and 2020 were attributed to the various drivers, highlighting the role of not only climate change (hazard), but particularly population growth (increase in exposure) and adaptation (decrease in vulnerability). Further integration with available operational services, primarily the Copernicus Climate Change Service, would enable timely input data processing for the hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling of riverine and coastal flooding. The approach will be extended to multihazard events, which will be showcased through the use case of extra-tropical cyclone Xynthia, which resulted in major impacts from both coastal flooding and extreme wind speeds in France in 2010.

How to cite: Paprotny, D., Tilloy, A., Terefenko, P., Mengel, M., and Couasnon, A.: Impact attribution of European floods: towards an operational system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4431, 2025.

EGU25-6938 | Posters on site | NH1.4

Attribution of the July 2021 flood event in the Ahr region to anthropogenic climate change 

Viet Dung Nguyen, Bruno Merz, Li Han, Heiko Apel, Xiaoxiang Guan, Heidi Kreibich, and Sergiy Vorogushyn

Flood event attribution, including the analysis of extreme precipitation and flood peaks, is crucial for understanding how anthropogenic climate change influences these events. This study employs an unconditional attribution approach to quantify changes in the likelihood of the July 2021 flood in the Ahr region, western Germany, in a factual world representing the current climate compared to a pre-industrial counterfactual world without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

To achieve this, the non-stationary weather generator nsRWG, conditioned on large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) and regional mean daily temperature (t2m), is used to generate 100 realizations of synthetic precipitation and temperature data over a 30-year period for both worlds. The CPs, derived from the classification of mean sea level pressure, and t2m are obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the factual world and from natural historic simulations of several CMIP6 GCMs for the counterfactual world. The nsRWG-generated data are further disaggregated to an hourly resolution and fed into the hydrological model mHM, set up for the Ahr basin, to simulate streamflow and derive hourly peak flow. The simulated extreme precipitation and peak flows are analyzed to estimate the likelihood of the July 2021 flood event in each climate state, forming the basis for calculating the probability ratio between the two worlds.

Our model-based results indicate that the likelihood of 1-day and 2-day extreme precipitation of the Ahr event is on average 1.28 and 1.63 times higher, respectively, in the current climate. The flood peak appears to be 1.07 times more likely in the present climate compared to the counterfactual world. These findings suggest that anthropogenic climate change has notably increased the likelihood of events like the July 2021 flood. The use of a weather generator in combination with a hydrological model paves the way towards hydrologic event attribution and sets the stage for further research into attribution of flood impacts.

How to cite: Nguyen, V. D., Merz, B., Han, L., Apel, H., Guan, X., Kreibich, H., and Vorogushyn, S.: Attribution of the July 2021 flood event in the Ahr region to anthropogenic climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6938, 2025.

EGU25-7489 | Orals | NH1.4

Using global temperature as a covariate to project flood risk 

Conrad Wasko, Lalani Jayaweera, Michelle Ho, Rory Nathan, Declan O'Shea, and Ashish Sharma

Flood estimates used in engineering design are commonly based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves derived from historical extreme rainfall. Under global warming, extreme rainfall is increasing, threatening the capacity of existing infrastructure. Hence, there is a need to update our methods of engineering design, namely our design rainfall intensities, for climate change.

One way of adjusting our design inputs for climate change is to incorporate covariates into the fitted probability distributions that describe extreme rainfall. To this end, here we evaluate which large-scale climate driver is best for modelling non-stationarity in IDF curves up to the 100-year design return level. The climate drivers we evaluate include global and continental mean temperature, continental diurnal temperature range, continental dewpoint temperature, continental precipitable water, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode.

Based on the Akaike Information Criteria, precipitable water is the superior covariate, irrespective of storm duration. However, when quantile changes across the historical period are inspected, we find that global temperature is best able to adequately capture the variability in changes across both storm duration and annual exceedance probability. We finish with presenting a case study where extreme rainfalls are projected using a global mean temperature covariate. The implications for flood risk are that, under 4ºC of global warming, flood risk increases by a multiple of eight.

How to cite: Wasko, C., Jayaweera, L., Ho, M., Nathan, R., O'Shea, D., and Sharma, A.: Using global temperature as a covariate to project flood risk, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7489, 2025.

Floods induced by rainstorm events (RSEs) are among the most frequent natural disasters and have a significant impact on ecosystems and human society. While most extensive researches have investigated the magnitude, frequency, and risk of floods, understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of contiguous flood-causing rainstorm events remains largely unexplored in China. Here, we collected historical flood disaster data from the Statistical Yearbook, news reports, and government sources and examined the evolution patterns of spatiotemporally contiguous flood-causing RSEs across China from 2000 to 2020, utilizing the connected component three-dimensional algorithm. Our results indicate that floods mostly occur in southern China (SC), followed by northern China (NC), with less frequency in northwestern China (NWC) and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP). The flood-causing RSEs tend to occur with longer durations and higher magnitudes in SC and NC, while in NWC and TP, they are primarily characterized by short-term precipitation processes with lower magnitudes. Moreover, the flood-causing RSEs exhibit distinct evolutionary patterns in different subregions. In NWC and TP, RSEs generally move eastward and southeastward, with relatively longer lifespans, traveling longer distances at faster moving speeds, but covering smaller areal extent and lower accumulated rainfall amounts. In contrast, in both SC and NC, flood-causing rainstorm events are mainly moved in two directions, namely westwards and eastwards. These events have shorter average lifespans, and travel shorter moving distances at slower moving speeds, but have a larger areal extent and huge accumulated rainfall amounts. Our findings significantly enhance our understanding of flood-causing rainstorm characteristics in China.

How to cite: Wang, J. and Guan, X.: Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of flood-causing rainstorm events in China from a 3D perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7964, 2025.

EGU25-8219 | ECS | Orals | NH1.4

Does a changing climate lead to a higher flash flood hazard? 

Paul Voit, Maik Heistermann, and Harald Rybka

Does a changing climate lead to a higher flash flood hazard?

Flash floods pose a significant natural hazard and are triggered by high-intensity precipitation events occurring in small and steep catchments. The short lead time, high flow velocity, and transportation of debris and sediment of these floods can lead to devastating impacts. 

With the warming climate, the intensity and extent of precipitation events are likely to increase, consequently leading to an expected increase of flash flood hazard. But what do we have to expect, and how can we adapt to future climate scenarios? Simulating extreme rainfall is still highly uncertain under climate change. Because of their coarse spatio-temporal resolution, global circulation models are not suited to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on flash floods. However, new convection-permitting models (regional climate models) for the first time now offer an appropriate spatia-temporal resolution (3x3 km, 1 hour) for flash flood modelling. Based on the COSMO-CLM (COSMO model in CLimate Mode, Rockel et al., 2008; Sørland et al., 2021), we modelled the runoff in all small-scale catchments in Germany for the periods 1971-2000, 2001-2019, and for the period 2030-2100, which is based on the RCP8.5 scenario.

Our results reveal that half of the catchments would produce a flood peak of factor 1.5 or higher under the RCP8.5 scenario compared to the present period (2001-2019) and further enable us to estimate and compare return levels of flood peaks for the RCP8.5 scenario and shed light on regional differences within Germany. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the (flash) flood response to a warmer climate in Germany.

References:

Rockel, B., A. Will, A. Hense, 2008: The regional climate nmodel COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol. Z. 17, 347–348, DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309.

Rybka, Harald, et al. "Convection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM for Germany: Analysis of present and future daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation; Convection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM for Germany: Analysis of present and future daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation." Meteorologische Zeitschrift 32.2 (2023): 91-111.

Sørland, S.L., C. Schär, D. Lüthi, E. Kjellström, 2018: Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains. Env. Res. Lett. 13, 074017, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aacc77.

How to cite: Voit, P., Heistermann, M., and Rybka, H.: Does a changing climate lead to a higher flash flood hazard?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8219, 2025.

EGU25-10340 | Posters on site | NH1.4

Impacts of rainfall variability on river discharges characteristics : A Case Study in Chenyulan Watershed, Taiwan, China 

Wen-Shun Huang, Jinn-Chyi Chen, Kuo-Hua Chien, Xi-Zhu Lai, and Yue-Ting Lai

In this study, the variations of rainfall and river discharges were analyzed in the Chenyulan watershed in Nantou County, central Taiwan. The hydrological data, including rainfall, daily discharges and yearly maximum instantaneous discharge, were collected from the Neimaopu hydrology station for the period from 1972 to 2022, covering approximately 50 years. According to the data analysis, when the rainfall exceeds the average, the river discharges in the Chenyoulan catchment increases, with larger rainfall events leading to more significant changes. Upon comparing the long-term data, it was found that the maximum instantaneous discharge occurred on August 1, 1996, during the Herb Typhoon. Though this event did not coincide with the historical maximum for total rainfall, rainfall intensity or average rainfall intensity, it resulted in the maximum instantaneous discharge.

 

 All of the rainfall events, daily average discharge and yearly maximum instantaneous discharge are preliminarily analyzed as follows: 1. Rainfall in the catchment shows a positive correlation with river discharge; 2. The increase in rainfall characteristics in the catchment and the increase in discharge are not linearly related; 3. The non-linear reasons for the relationship between rainfall and maximum instantaneous discharge are preliminarily summarized as being related to soil conditions, different rainfall intensity locations and the runoff coefficients of various catchment units; 4. This study will subsequently estimate the average runoff coefficient of the catchment based on the relationship between individual rainfall and discharge, and conclude rational formula.

How to cite: Huang, W.-S., Chen, J.-C., Chien, K.-H., Lai, X.-Z., and Lai, Y.-T.: Impacts of rainfall variability on river discharges characteristics : A Case Study in Chenyulan Watershed, Taiwan, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10340, 2025.

EGU25-10885 | ECS | Orals | NH1.4

On the Changing Role of Climatic Drivers to River Basin Scale Flooding 

Nanditha Jayadevan Sobhana and Vimal Mishra

Floods result from the interplay of climatic drivers, catchment characteristics and river system dynamics. The observed shift to extreme climatic events necessitates a better quantification of their impact on flood generation. Improving our current understanding of flood generation processes in the observed climate provides a pathway to improve flood projections in a warming climate.

This presentation will share insights from our work on river basin scale flooding in India. Using a physical hydrological model, we conducted an event-scale analysis of high flows across multiple river basins in India. The results highlight the significant role of antecedent catchment moisture, as well as the duration and spatial extent of precipitation events, in driving river basin scale flooding. The study also examines and distinguishes the relative importance of large-scale moisture transport, and origin, persistence and direction of propagation of low-pressure systems in triggering localized and widespread floods. Furthermore, we find that prominent flood drivers in a warming climate are similar to those observed in the historical period. Careful attribution of observed flood changes, combined with a thorough assessment of changes in key drivers, is essential for deriving reliable projections of future flood risk.

How to cite: Jayadevan Sobhana, N. and Mishra, V.: On the Changing Role of Climatic Drivers to River Basin Scale Flooding, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10885, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10885, 2025.

EGU25-11534 | ECS | Orals | NH1.4

Floods and moisture excesses induced by atmospheric blocking are related at the long-term scale in Europe 

Diego Hernandez, Miriam Bertola, David Lun, Bodo Ahrens, James McPhee, and Günter Blöschl

Among weather-related extreme events in Europe, floods are one of the most disastrous and costliest. Atmospheric blocking episodes (i.e., persistent, quasi-stationary, and self-preserved weather systems that propagate very slowly and interrupt the usual westerly flows) are part of the main weather regimes in the Euro-Atlantic and have been associated with notable flood events across Europe. So far, the relationship between blocking and some high-impact extreme weather events has been established, including the modulation of the odds of heavy precipitation. Yet, a long-term continental relationship between blocking and flooding remains unrevealed, and in particular, the way atmospheric blocking translates into floods. For the 1960-2010 period, this study analyses a pancontinental database of maximum discharge, atmospheric and soil variables from ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalyses, and a gridded binary blocking index derived from ERA20C. Preliminary results indicate mixed positive and negative anomalies in mean precipitation and wet-spell frequencies in response to blocking, depending on the region. Nonetheless, robustly across Europe, the anomalies in wet-spell duration and total precipitation depth are generally positive under blocking conditions. We present the spatial patterns across Europe induced by atmospheric blocking in anomalies of, e.g., streamflow maxima, rainfall maxima, and root zone moisture excess maxima, pointing out that the patterns between streamflow maxima and moisture excess maxima are significantly correlated but not in the case between streamflow maxima and rainfall maxima. Hence, this research suggests that the effect of atmospheric blocking on floods is acting at the level of the interaction between rainfall and soil moisture. The outcomes presented here unveil a continental and long-term impact of atmospheric blocking in relevant variables for flood generation.

How to cite: Hernandez, D., Bertola, M., Lun, D., Ahrens, B., McPhee, J., and Blöschl, G.: Floods and moisture excesses induced by atmospheric blocking are related at the long-term scale in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11534, 2025.

EGU25-12781 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

The role of extratropical cyclones in flooding in Quebec, Canada, from 1990-2020 

Clarence Gagnon, Daniel Nadeau, Alejandro Di Luca, and François Anctil

Out of all weather-related hazards, flooding has the most widespread impact globally, and the province of Quebec is no exception. In the past decades, dozens of riverside municipalities have felt the socio-economic consequences of flooding firsthand. Most of Quebec is characterised by a cold and humid continental climate, with precipitation year-round. Here, river flooding often takes place in the spring, due to snowmelt. Although important, snowmelt alone is not the only factor influencing flooding in the mid-latitudes. By bringing heavier than normal precipitation with them, extratropical cyclones are also known to be key contributors. The relationship between extratropical cyclones and flooding have been extensively studied on the West Coast of North America, but remains largely unexplored in eastern Canada. Thus, this study aims to link flooding events that have happened in the past 30 years in Quebec to their triggering extratropical cyclones and identify possible characteristics (genesis locations, trajectories, lifetime, progression speed, or precipitation intensity) that set these systems apart. Coupled with financial aid claims data, highlighting the differences between regular vs flood-inducing extratropical cyclones coming through Quebec can help describe the region’s flooding history and better prepare for future events. We also explore the involvement of atmospheric rivers in these extreme events. This analysis is performed using three databases. First, the Quebec Floods Financial Aid Claims Database provides the 14360 financial aid claims filed by individuals or businesses for material loss following flooding, from 1990-2022. Each claim contains the location of the damaged infrastructures, watershed involved, and closest river section. Second, the North American Extratropical Cyclone Catalogue provides extratropical cyclone tracks derived from the ERA5 reanalysis, available every hour from 1979-2020, and includes variables of interest such as precipitation and near surface wind-speeds. Third, the Global Atmospheric River Scale Database gives the occurrence and scale (based on integrated water vapor transport and duration of event) of atmospheric rivers every 6 hours from 1979-2020. By grouping the financial aid claims by location and date, 385 events were identified. Through this analysis, 550 extratropical cyclones (storms) of interest were identified and ranked according to their associated percentage of cumulated rain during the event. Five zones of storm genesis locations were identified: western Canada, Great Lakes and Ontario, US Northern East Coast and Quebec, Central US, and US East Coast. The genesis location of weaker storms was uniformly distributed among the five regions. However, most of the remaining 108 more intense storms were coming from two genesis locations: Central US (48%), and US East Coast (25%). For these two genesis zones, trajectories of stronger storms were found to be different from those of weaker storms. For example, tracks were more likely to move over land going up the US East Coast and go over the Great Lakes when coming from Central US. As for atmospheric rivers, their involvement in flood-events was found to be very high in the winter, and minimal in the summer. The combination of data used in this method offers new insights for investigating flooding events.

How to cite: Gagnon, C., Nadeau, D., Di Luca, A., and Anctil, F.: The role of extratropical cyclones in flooding in Quebec, Canada, from 1990-2020, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12781, 2025.

Convection-permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) are increasingly recognized for their ability to improve extreme precipitation predictions, yet their application to hydrological modeling in complex terrains remains uncertain. This study evaluates the performance of CPRCMs in predicting hydrological extremes in two basins in Western Norway: Røykenes, dominated by rainfall-induced floods, and Bulken, characterized by snowmelt-induced floods. We compare the capabilities of a high-resolution convection-permitting model (HCLIM3, 3 km resolution) with a coarser regional climate model (HCLIM12, 12 km resolution) in driving two hydrological models: the physically based Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological system (WRF-Hydro) and the conceptual Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model. Performance was evaluated based on precipitation, temperature, runoff, and hydrological extremes. We found that HCLIM3 exhibited significantly better performance in estimating annual maximum 1-day (Rx1d) and 1-hour (Rx1h) precipitation, with reduced biases compared to HCLIM12. It also showed added value in capturing the probability density distribution of daily and hourly precipitation, as quantified by the Distribution Added Value (DAV) metric. However, both HCLIM3 and HCLIM12 displayed cold biases, especially in mountainous areas. Besides, in the rainfall-dominated Røykenes basin, WRF-Hydro outperformed HBV in simulating extreme flood magnitudes across return periods (5, 10, 20, and 50 years). However, in the snowmelt-dominated Bulken basin, cold biases in HCLIM3 and HCLIM12 introduced uncertainties in snowmelt timing, leading to larger errors. The added value of HCLIM3 was observed in hourly discharge in the Røykenes basin. However, this benefit was less pronounced in the snowmelt-dominated Bulken basin, where temperature sensitivities significantly influenced snowmelt processes. Biases in HCLIM3 and HCLIM12 meteorological forcing propagated through hydrological models, leading to discharge errors, as highlighted by DAV metrics. This research highlights the importance of applying bias correction to CPRCM simulations to improve hydrological modeling of extreme events, especially in mountainous terrains where biases in temperature and precipitation critically affect hydrological processes.

How to cite: Li, L. and Xie, K.: Evaluating the added value of convection-permitting regional climate models in simulating hydrological extremes over basins in western Norway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13633, 2025.

EGU25-15024 | Posters on site | NH1.4

The case of flash floods in Montsià county (Catalonia, Spain): from the source of precipitate water to thunderstorm cells  

Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Mari Carmen Llasat, Ramon Pascual, Tomeu Rigo, Damián Insúa-Costa, and Alfredo Crespo

The latest IPCC report (2022) projects an increase in climate risks for all regions of the world, both in frequency and intensity. In particular, on the Spanish Mediterranean coast, catastrophes such as the Gloria event in January 2020, or the tragic floods that occurred in October 2024 in Valencia and Castile-La Mancha, are aligned with these projections. On a smaller geographical scale, flash floods that occurred in the Montsià county (southern Catalonia) in 2018, 2021 and 2023 also point to an increase in frequency in this in this 733 km² region located at the south of the Ebro Delta. This region is a paradigmatic example of a Mediterranean region with a high flood risk. Firstly, it has a high flash flood hazard, as a result of its abrupt orography with steep slopes that favours the existence of numerous steep torrents, as well as the rise of humid air masses from the Mediterranean, especially when they hit perpendicular to the coastline, which helps trigger convection and gives rise to intense rainfall. Likewise, the geographical region in which it is located is favourable to the entry of humid air from remote sources, which contribute to the increase in the intensity and amount of precipitation. Secondly, it has a high flood exposure despite the low population density, but which is multiplied by four in summer and early autumn in some municipalities. Thirdly, it has a high flood vulnerability, a consequence of being divided into three hydrographic basins, managed by three different administrations, which makes coordination difficult, especially regarding flood prevention. This is combined with a low-risk awareness both socially and individually that is joined to the difficulty of predicting and nowcasting the convective events that give rise to the severe flash floods that the region frequently experiences.

During the catastrophic flooding event of October 18–20, 2018, the maximum precipitation recorded in the Montsià region was 312.2 mm, and a daily rainfall of 209.6 mm, with a peak of 30-minute rainfall of 52.4 mm. On September 1, 2021, 251.9 mm were recorded over three hours, with a peak of 30-minute rainfall of 72 mm.  On September 3, 2023, very heavy rainfall was recorded once again in Montsià, with a maximum rainfall of 206 mm/24h and a peak of 30-minute rainfall of 61.4 mm.  In this study we characterize these three catastrophic flash flood events taking into account the complexity that local scale phenomena may have. For this reason, the characteristics of the thunderstorms that gave rise to the catastrophic flash floods are analyzed, to then go on to understand the synoptic and mesoscale context and finish with the search for the moisture source fields at global scale. In order to ascertain whether this increase in frequency in recent years responds to a significant trend, a spatio-temporal analysis in extreme rainfall indicators has been made. To do this, information from multiple data sources has been integrated, including meteorological station observations, weather radar products, lightning detection networks, high-resolution mesoscale model outputs.

How to cite: Marcos-Matamoros, R., Llasat, M. C., Pascual, R., Rigo, T., Insúa-Costa, D., and Crespo, A.: The case of flash floods in Montsià county (Catalonia, Spain): from the source of precipitate water to thunderstorm cells , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15024, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15024, 2025.

EGU25-15233 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.4

A distributed rainfall-runoff model to explore the connection between floods and climate extremes in the European Alps 

Anna Basso, Luca Lombardo, and Alberto Viglione

Given the current warming trend of our climate system, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are expected to have a significant impact on flood dynamics. The Clim2FlEx project aims in this evolving context to assess how floods of different natures are linked to climate extremes under potential future climate scenarios.

This work focuses on the European Alps, an optimal natural laboratory for this topic due to the complex hydro-meteorological processes occurring in the region and its unique position at the intersection of the Mediterranean and continental Europe.

The methodology uses an innovative and integrated version of the TUWmodel, combined with a machine-learning-based regionalization approach, HydroPASS. Once the regional model is validated, it will enable hydrological runoff predictions for both current and future scenarios across the Greater Alpine Region. Based on these simulations, we aim to identify flood events in time and space, linking them to climate extreme indices and, ultimately, to the large-scale climatic phenomena driving their dynamics.

At the EGU, we will present the results obtained regarding the performance of the regional model, along with the steps taken, and those planned, for developing the spatio-temporal event detection strategies.

How to cite: Basso, A., Lombardo, L., and Viglione, A.: A distributed rainfall-runoff model to explore the connection between floods and climate extremes in the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15233, 2025.

EGU25-16468 | Posters on site | NH1.4

Synthetic Design Hydrographs Under Current and Future Climate for Local Bridge Scour Assessment 

Kristina Potočki, Damir Bekić, Nejc Bezak, Tobias Conradt, Damir Pintar, Marko Šrajbek, and Martina Lacko

One of the major challenges in hydrological research for estimating design flood events is accounting for the influence of climate change. These changes are reflected in increasingly frequent and intense fluctuations in river water regimes and sediment transport, indirectly affecting riverbed erosion processes. Therefore, assessing the long-term impacts on the lifespan of hydraulic structures (e.g., bridges) is crucial, requiring a comprehensive analysis of the interrelationship between climate change indicators, flood wave characteristics (including peak flow and hydrograph shape), and local riverbed erosion.

The SERIOUS project (Synthetic dEsign hydrographs undeR current and future clImate for local bridge scOUr aSsessment) aims to methodologically link synthetic design hydrographs (SDH) derived from statistical bivariate analysis under current and projected future climate conditions in the continental parts of the Danube River basin to the assessment of climate change impacts on bridge scour at selected pilot sites. The project objectives are to: (1) establish a methodological framework for determining control SDH based on literature reviews and available data in selected pilot areas; (2) apply and improve supervised and/or unsupervised machine learning algorithms to categorize different SDH types based on their shapes and/or topologies; (3) calibrate a regional hydrological model to evaluate climate change projections using historical discharge and water level data from the selected pilot areas; (4) investigate changes in SDH under climate change projections; and (5) develop a methodological framework for evaluating climate change impacts on bridge scour depth. These objectives are supported by the IAHS "Helping Decade" initiative (Working Group 11.1). The proposed project is expected to improve methodologies for determining SDH, serving as critical inputs for designing various engineering structures.

 

Acknowledgment:

This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project SERIOUS (IP-2024-05-1497) and the “Young Researchers’ Career Development Project – Training New Doctoral Students” (DOK-2020-01-5354).

How to cite: Potočki, K., Bekić, D., Bezak, N., Conradt, T., Pintar, D., Šrajbek, M., and Lacko, M.: Synthetic Design Hydrographs Under Current and Future Climate for Local Bridge Scour Assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16468, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16468, 2025.

EGU25-17369 | Orals | NH1.4 | Highlight

Controls on the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation in Austria 

Klaus Haslinger, Korbinian Breinl, Lovrenc Pavlin, Georg Pistotnik, Miriam bertola, Marc Olefs, Marion Greilinger, Wolfgang Schöner, and Günter Blöschl

The temporal evolution of extreme precipitation is expected to be influenced by the broader impacts of climate change. This is generally considered to be due to the increased water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere, as well as alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, gaining a comprehensive understanding of how extreme precipitation has changed in the past has been a challenge due to limited historical data and inherent uncertainties, particularly when examining short-duration rainfall events such as those occurring within a one-hour period.

By analyzing rainfall gauge data from Austria collected during the twentieth century, we observe significant decadal-scale variations in daily extreme precipitation. These variations suggest that the frequency and intensity of daily extreme events are highly variable over time. In contrast, our analysis of hourly extreme precipitation reveals a more consistent and noticeable upward trend over the past four decades. This trend corresponds with the increase in global temperatures, showing a 7% rise in hourly extreme precipitation for every 1°C of warming, which is in line with the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. This increase in hourly extreme precipitation is consistent across both the northern and southern regions of the Alps, indicating that the effects of warming are widespread across Austria. On the other hand, daily extreme precipitation appears to be more strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, with a more notable correlation to decadal-scale variations in these patterns. These atmospheric circulation shifts are responsible for driving the weather systems that generate extreme precipitation events, particularly on the daily timescale.

In summary, our findings suggest that thermodynamic changes, such as the increase in temperature, have a more pronounced impact on hourly extreme precipitation than on daily extremes. This highlights the distinct processes at play for different timescales, where the short-term (hourly) extreme events are more closely tied to the fundamental thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere, while longer-term (daily) extremes are influenced more by large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics.

How to cite: Haslinger, K., Breinl, K., Pavlin, L., Pistotnik, G., bertola, M., Olefs, M., Greilinger, M., Schöner, W., and Blöschl, G.: Controls on the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation in Austria, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17369, 2025.

EGU25-19877 * | Orals | NH1.4 | Highlight

Blocking patterns are crucial in producing recent extreme summer floods 

Hayley Fowler, Paul Davies, Anna Whitford, Stephen Blenkinsop, Christopher White, and Christoph Sauter

Extreme weather events often, but not exclusively, occur when the jet stream is highly disturbed and the atmospheric circulation becomes blocked, allowing long-lasting, quasi-stationary and self-sustaining atmospheric weather regimes to develop. The interactions of subtropical, warm and moist air with polar, cold and dry air within the structure of the atmospheric block may then provide the local ingredients for these highly impactful weather events, including persistent rainfall from cut-off low pressure systems causing floods like those in Central Europe in 2024, or in Germany in 2021, or in Greece or Spain in 2023, or short-duration downbursts leading to serious flash flooding as occurred in Liguria, Italy in Oct 2023 breaking the European record for hourly rainfall. This talk will draw on evidence from several published and unpublished studies to examine the mechanisms for such events, from global drivers, through synoptic scale weather regimes to local-scale processes. Identifying the causal pathways for hydroclimatic extremes is important for developing improved methods for event attribution, and for improving climate model projections, since even high-resolution climate models poorly simulate key mechanisms driving these events and likely underestimate future changes.

How to cite: Fowler, H., Davies, P., Whitford, A., Blenkinsop, S., White, C., and Sauter, C.: Blocking patterns are crucial in producing recent extreme summer floods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19877, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19877, 2025.

EGU25-20525 | Posters on site | NH1.4

Modeling of Ice-jam Flooding: Integrating SUMMA with River Ice Processes for Climate Change Impacts 

Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Mohammad Ghoreishi, and Darri Eythorsson

Ice-jam flooding linked with the interactions of hydrological and cryosphere processes is a serious threat to riverine communities in cold regions. This work uses the coupling of the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) hydrological model, which represents a wide range of hydrological processes, and the mizuRoute river routing model with that of a river ice model (i.e., RIVICE model) to project of ice-jam floods under changing climatic conditions. In fact, SUMMA and mizuRoute simulate streamflow, which is then passed to RIVICE to model ice formation and dynamics. The dynamics of streamflow simulated by SUMMA / mizuRoute include comprehensive representation of various hydrological processes, while the RIVICE model considers the processes of ice formation, frazil ice dynamics, and accumulation. This coupled modeling framework is applied to the Klondike River in Yukon, Canada, one of the regions historically affected by ice-jam flooding. This study uniquely integrates these models to enable projection of future ice-jam flood scenarios. The simulations are driven by climate projections from the CMIP6 datasets, enabling comprehensive assessments of future freeze-up events and associated flood risks at high spatial and temporal resolution. This work contributes to the increasing value of integrated hydrological and cryospheric modeling, improving flood risk assessments and informing adaptive strategies, such as improved forecasting systems and infrastructure design, for community protection in cold regions.

How to cite: Lindenschmidt, K.-E., Ghoreishi, M., and Eythorsson, D.: Modeling of Ice-jam Flooding: Integrating SUMMA with River Ice Processes for Climate Change Impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20525, 2025.

Northeast India (NEI) plays a key role in national development and environmental security due to its ecological diversity, socioeconomic significance, and strategic importance. In addition to being highly susceptible to climatic extremes, it's crucial for the region to build resilience against such challenges. The NEI, a region traditionally known for its heavy rainfall during the monsoon months (June–September), has witnessed a significant shift in its climatic patterns. The monsoon season, once characterized by consistent rainfall, has now transformed into a flood-drought cycle occurring within the same year. Intense bursts of rainfall lead to widespread flooding, followed by prolonged dry spells that verge on drought conditions. While NEI's vulnerability to flooding has been extensively studied, its susceptibility to drought remains underexplored, despite its growing relevance in the region. Therefore, this study presents a spatial drought vulnerability mapping framework designed to enhance this resilience in NEI, including Bangladesh (NEIB)—a geographically and climatologically intertwined region encompassing diverse landscapes from mountains to coastal plains. The study assesses drought vulnerability for the historical period (1981–2014) and projects future vulnerability (2015–2100) under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), considering different climatic and socio-economic factors. A total of 16 factors like precipitation, temperature, drainage density, land-cover, surface soil-moisture, population density, etc. are used in this integrated framework. These factors fall under four main categories – hydrology, meteorology, socioeconomics, and agriculture, which employ two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making methods: an Analytical Hierarchy Process and a Weighted Aggregate Sum Product Assessment. Out of all the factors, precipitation emerged as the most influential one, followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature. The spatial drought vulnerability mapping categorizes the NEIB region into five levels of vulnerability: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Interestingly, none of the regions in the NEIB fall into the very low or very high vulnerability categories. Regions such as Tripura, Mizoram, West Bengal, and Bangladesh are categorized as highly vulnerable, while Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and Meghalaya demonstrate greater resilience. Future projections indicate a significant shift in vulnerability patterns. Towards the end of the century (2071–2100), under the SSP585 scenario, the area classified as having moderate vulnerability is expected to decrease from ~85% in the historical period (1981–2014) to approximately ~70%, while the proportion of the region categorized as highly vulnerable is anticipated to rise from ~9% to ~25%. Both the methods demonstrated high accuracy and reliability, achieving Area Under the Curve values above 80% based on Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. A sensitivity analysis via the Stillwell Ranking Method indicated comparable performances by criteria suggesting the robustness of the framework that can be applied to other parts of the world. The findings from such a framework will be helpful to promote the need for actions to mitigate future increases in drought severity in susceptible areas, while the resilience of less-impacted regions might be utilized to derive adaptive measures. As challenges from climate continue to evolve, this study provides valuable information for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to increase regional resilience and achieve sustainable development.

How to cite: Rudra Paul, A. and Maity, R.: Spatial Drought Vulnerability Mapping for Regional Climate Resilience: A study over India’s Northeast including Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3949, 2025.

    The Taoyuan Tableland has faced a significant shortage of water resources due to booming socio-economic development in the past decades. The Shihmen Reservoir built in 1964 has been gradually unable to support the Taoyuan Tableland's agricultural and public water demands. By analyzing 1995-2014 rainfall data with the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-III), seven extreme meteorology drought events with the SPI-III less than -2 were found. Using the 0.05° statistically downscaled daily rainfall data provided by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project (TCCIP), it is expected to have 40 extreme meteorology drought events in 2041-2060. More drought events in the changing climate will further worsen the water shortage. It is urgent to develop adaptation measures for water resources management to enhance the climatic resilience of the Taoyuan Tableland. Agricultural ponds have been used for temporary water storage to support irrigation for more than 70 years, even earlier than the construction of the Shihmen Reservoir. Deepening agricultural ponds to provide distributed water storage capacity over the tableland is considered one of the effective adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of drought. This study focuses on how to systematically integrate and enhance the capacities of agricultural ponds to achieve a better climate-resilient Taoyuan Tableland.

    Components of the Taoyuan Tableland’s water supply-demand system, including the Shihmen reservoir, agricultural ponds, agricultural districts, and water treatment plants, were integrated to build a water-resource system-dynamic model (WRSDM). Baseline (1995-2014) and SSP5-8.5 projections of 2041-2060 were obtained from the TCCIP. The Taiwan Water Resources Assessment Program to Climate Change (TaiWAP) was used to simulate flow discharges for running the WRSDM. The Deficit Percent Day (DPD) index and the Total Agricultural Deficit (TDAg) index are used to evaluate public and agricultural water shortages, respectively. The availability indicator calculated as the ratio of the average time without water shortage to the summation of average time without water shortage and average time of water shortage is used to represent the mean duration of no water shortage in the water resources system. Compared to the baseline (1995-2014), the average TDAg will increase by 10.25% and the availability indicator of public water will decrease by 21.51% due to more drought events in the mid-future (2041-2060). By deepening agricultural ponds by 2 meters, the availability indicator of public water will increase by 0.42% in the mid-future which is better than the case without applying any adaptation measure and indicates water shortage impacts to the domestic and industry sectors can be reduced. In addition to deepening agricultural ponds, different adaptation measures (e.g., rotated irrigation schedules, dry farming, reclaimed water, etc.) will be assessed to provide an optimized combination for adaptation policy recommendations in our future studies.

How to cite: Lin, T. Y., Li, M. H., and Jian, C. B.: Assessing Climate Change Impact and Water Resources Adaptation Measures of the Taoyuan Tableland in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6162, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6162, 2025.

EGU25-8837 | PICO | NH1.5

Practices to include assessments of future climate change in flood risk management in Germany and the Benelux countries  

Sergiy Vorogushyn, Elena Macdonald, Bruno Merz, Jeroen Aerts, Benjamin Dewals, Jaap Kwadijk, Kymo Slager, Patrick Willems, and Davide Zoccatelli

Ongoing climate change, resulting in heavier rainfall and potentially higher flood peaks, can challenge flood risk management in many European regions. In particular, flood design values and flood hazard and risk maps can be challenged by future climate conditions. The devastating July 2021 floods in western Europe highlighted the need for transboundary cooperation in adapting flood risk management to climate change. In the JCAR-ATRACE Initiative (Joint Cooperation programme on Applied scientific Research – Accelerate Transboundary Regional Adaptation to Climate Extremes), we review and synthesize how climate change information is integrated into flood risk management in regions of Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. We assess whether regions have published flood policy papers, developed future climate and flood scenarios, and translated these scenarios to flood hazard and risk maps and/or flood design values. Our findings reveal that while all 17 sub-national regions have adaptation plans addressing climate change, only 6 regions have developed future flood projections, with even fewer (3) incorporating climate-adjusted design values and only one providing flood hazard and risk maps under future climate scenarios. Practices vary widely: for example, Flanders in Belgium uses a full range of emission scenarios (CMIP5 RCP2.6 to RCP8.5), while Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria in Germany rely on the high-end scenario (CMIP5 RCP8.5) only. The Netherlands adopts a robust approach using 33 CMIP6 global climate models and a dynamic adaptation pathway framework to address uncertainties. Some regions like Saxony in Germany argue that the spread of projections is too large to derive design values and emphasize the need for standardized scenarios and methods. In summary, our synthesis highlights substantial gaps in incorporating climate change projections into flood risk management and significant regional variation in approaches. The synthesis will hopefully contribute to cross-border learning and foster uptake of climate change adaptation in flood risk management in Europe.

How to cite: Vorogushyn, S., Macdonald, E., Merz, B., Aerts, J., Dewals, B., Kwadijk, J., Slager, K., Willems, P., and Zoccatelli, D.: Practices to include assessments of future climate change in flood risk management in Germany and the Benelux countries , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8837, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8837, 2025.

EGU25-10500 | PICO | NH1.5

Masters of the Meuse: Navigating water scarcity in a shared river basin  

Maarten van der Ploeg and Tami de Lange

Title: Masters of the Meuse: Navigating water scarcity in a shared river basin

Overview
Water management in transboundary river basins is one of the most pressing challenges in the face of climate change and competing sectoral demands. Masters of the Meuse is a serious game designed to simulate the complexities of water allocation and governance in the international Meuse River basin, shared by France, Flanders, Wallonia, the Netherlands, and Germany. By assuming the roles of national water managers, players experience firsthand the intricacies of balancing diverse priorities while preventing regional conflicts caused by water scarcity.

Why Participate?
The Meuse River supports nature, agriculture, industry, drinking water, energy production, recreation and cargo shipping. Over 7 million people in the Netherlands and Flanders rely on the Meuse for drinking water, highlighting the river's critical importance. Competing demands, compounded by climate change, increasingly strain the availability and quality of water resources, making effective and transboundary management more urgent. The game provides an interactive platform to explore the complexities of balancing regional priorities, ensuring sustainable water use, and promoting stability. It is especially valuable for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in water management.

Objectives
The game aims to:

  • Develop a deeper understanding of transboundary water governance.
  • Provide an immersive experience in managing water scarcity in the context of climate change and to Illustrate the importance of balancing economic, ecological, and societal priorities.
  • Stimulate the international dialogue on how to manage water resources equitably and sustainably and foster collaboration and negotiation skills for conflict prevention.

Gameplay and Insights
Participants represent countries in the Meuse River Basin, each with distinct water needs. The game unfolds over five rounds, each presenting key decisions:

  • Water allocation: Distribute limited resources across sectors and river systems.
  • Negotiation: Collaborate with neighbouring countries to address cross-border challenges and prevent conflict.
  • Event and climate impacts: Respond to disruptions like extreme weather or droughts.
  • Conflict management: A shared Conflict Tracker monitors tensions. If one country’s demand exceeds supply, the entire region faces a collective loss.

 

 

Success in the game hinges on finding innovative and collaborative solutions that balance national interests with the shared goal of regional stability. This experience simulates the real-world challenges of managing shared water resources in an unpredictable climate.

Relevance to EGU 2025
Masters of the Meuse offers a unique opportunity for researchers, policymakers, and educators to explore the intersection of science, policy, and society. It highlights how hydroclimatic factors, governance frameworks, and negotiation dynamics interact in shared water systems.

Impact
The Meuse River represents the broader challenge of managing shared natural resources globally. By engaging with these issues, participants gain valuable insights into collaborative decision-making and sustainable water use practices.

Join Us
Discover how Masters of the Meuse translates scientific challenges into actionable insights and equips participants with the tools to address the complexities of transboundary water governance. Join us on-site at EGU 2025 in Vienna to experience the game and participate in discussions on its potential applications for research, education, and policymaking.

Together, let’s master the challenges of the Meuse and beyond!

How to cite: van der Ploeg, M. and de Lange, T.: Masters of the Meuse: Navigating water scarcity in a shared river basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10500, 2025.

EGU25-10808 | PICO | NH1.5

Flood risk assessment of agricultural areas along the Niger river upstream Niamey 

Daniele Ganora, Muhammad Abraiz, Elena Belcore, Giorgio Cannella, Mohamed Housseini Ibrahim, Marco Piras, Francesco Saretto, Maurizio Tiepolo, and Riccardo Vesipa

Much of the food supplied to the city of Niamey (1.5 million inhabitants), the capital of Niger, comes from 150 large commercial horticultural sites and 10 vast irrigated perimeters distributed along the Niger River upstream of the city. These areas are threatened by floods, such as the one that devastated paddy fields and horticultural areas in August 2024. To address this problem, a detailed assessment of the river flood risk, expressed in monetary terms, is urgently needed to complement the early flood warning system.

This activity is part of the SLAPIS Sahel project, which aims to develop a more general framework for flood risk management applied to the transboundary Sirba river basin and the nearby Niger river, with the active participation of the water authorities of Burkina Faso and Niger. In this context, this work focuses on the flood risk analysis of the Niger River upstream of the city of Niamey in a multidisciplinary way. To this aim, a hydrological study of the basin was carried out, taking into account the two types of floods that affect the area: floods due to the local rainy season, and dry season events caused by floods upstream in the Guinea-Conakry basin. A hydraulic model was then used to map the extent of flooding, allowing to study the impact and expected damage to the target areas. Daily satellite imagery was used to assess the extent of recent floods and the characteristics of the exposed areas. All these activities were repeated for both the wet and dry seasons, as agricultural production changes and the impacts are different.

This analysis supports the cost-benefit assessment of possible defense structures.

How to cite: Ganora, D., Abraiz, M., Belcore, E., Cannella, G., Housseini Ibrahim, M., Piras, M., Saretto, F., Tiepolo, M., and Vesipa, R.: Flood risk assessment of agricultural areas along the Niger river upstream Niamey, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10808, 2025.

EGU25-11137 | ECS | PICO | NH1.5 | Highlight

Comparing the effectiveness of upstream nature-based solutions with building-level adaptation measures: a case study for the Geul river 

Veerle Bril, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Tarun Sadana, Tim Busker, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen Aerts

In July 2021 large flooding took place in North-Western Europe. The Geul river, which is shared between the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, was one of the flooded catchments, with total damages estimated to be €250 million. Since then, there has been a call for additional flood risk reduction measures in the area, including transboundary nature-based solutions in upstream parts of Belgium and local scale flood-proofing of buildings in The Netherlands.

The main novelty of our study is to make an economic trade-off between upstream nature-based solutions (NBS) and downstream building-level measures. For this, we further develop GEB, a coupled agent-based hydrological model and integrate the hydrodynamic model SFINCS into GEB. Furthermore, to calculate high-resolution risk estimates for buildings, we use object-based exposure data from OpenStreetMap and empirically derived vulnerability curves using survey data at the building level. The model allows us to 1) understand current flood risk in the Geul catchment at the object-level and 2) evaluate the effect of several flood risk reduction measures. The model validation shows good performance against observations of flood extent (CSI=0.66), flood depth, and damage of the July 2021 flood.

We then quantify the risk reduction of several nature-based solutions (wetland restoration, reforestation, retention ponds and the conversion of agricultural land to natural grassland) and building-level adaptation measures (wet-proofing and dry-proofing). Moreover, we examine the effect of upstream nature-based solutions on downstream communities. Finally, we perform a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to gain insight into which combinations of measures are most desirable. Our results show that NBS are especially effective for less extreme floods with high return periods (<1/25). For extreme floods (>1/25), benefit-cost ratios (BCR) may drop to 0.25 or lower. However, these numbers do not account for co-benefits (e.g. tourism). The results can be used by policymakers to design effective flood risk management strategies.

How to cite: Bril, V., de Bruijn, J., de Moel, H., Sadana, T., Busker, T., Botzen, W., and Aerts, J.: Comparing the effectiveness of upstream nature-based solutions with building-level adaptation measures: a case study for the Geul river, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11137, 2025.

EGU25-12019 | PICO | NH1.5

Drought impacts and community adaptation: perspectives on the 2020-2023 drought in East Africa  

Teun Schrieks, Rhoda Odongo, Ileen Streefkerk, Hans de Moel, Tim Busker, Toon Haer, David MacLeod, Katerina Michaelides, Michael Singer, Mohammed Assen, Anne van Loon, and George Otieno

The Horn of Africa drylands (HAD) encompassing Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia recently endured an unprecedented multi-year drought from 2020 to 2023, causing devastating impacts. This study investigates these impacts and the dynamics of human adaptation in response to the drought, comparing it to earlier drought events (i.e., 2016-2018) to identify key lessons. First, drought impact data—covering milk production, trekking distances to water sources, and internally displaced persons (IDPs)—are analyzed over time to provide a detailed overview of drought dynamics. Second, household survey data (n=752) are used to examine community perceptions of the drought period and their adaptation strategies. Finally, agent-based modelling (ABM) simulations explore the interactions between mitigation, adaptation decisions, and drought impacts. The results reveal that, on average, the 2020-2023 drought had more severe impacts than the 2016-2018 drought, although the latter exhibited greater variability in impacts. Communities have adopted various adaptation measures to cope with drought effects; however, limited knowledge and financial resources remain significant barriers to scaling these efforts. ABM simulations indicate that enhancing extension services can boost the adoption of adaptation strategies, leading to increased crop and milk production. Additionally, the simulations suggest that water harvesting can mitigate drought impacts upstream, though it may reduce water availability downstream. These findings highlight the critical need for sustained investments in adaptation measures, timely and well-informed decision-making, and region-specific interventions while carefully considering the trade-offs associated with these strategies. 

How to cite: Schrieks, T., Odongo, R., Streefkerk, I., de Moel, H., Busker, T., Haer, T., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Singer, M., Assen, M., van Loon, A., and Otieno, G.: Drought impacts and community adaptation: perspectives on the 2020-2023 drought in East Africa , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12019, 2025.

The Meuse River Basin, like many transboundary river systems, faces a growing number of challenges, exacerbated by climate change, rapid urbanization and population growth. These pressures not only strain water resources, but also increase the frequency and intensity of hydroclimatic extremes such as floods and droughts. In July 2021, floods in Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Germany caused more than 220 deaths and more than 46 billion euros in economic losses. Post-flood assessment reports revealed significant gaps in communication and coordination, especially across borders. The Meuse River Basin is also increasingly affected by droughts, with river discharges below 20 m3/s recorded at Eijsden (Netherlands) in 2018 and 2022. Amid these challenges, there is a heightened focus on alternative solutions to manage these risks, such as detention basins, floodplain restoration, and nature-based approaches, which could significantly affect land use and resource management. The integration of such local measures presents a valuable opportunity, but also demands careful consideration of how different countries within the basin approach land and water governance.

A major barrier to more effective flood and drought management lies in the fragmented nature of data integration and modeling infrastructure. Evaluation reports have pointed to significant communication and coordination gaps, particularly across borders. They found that disparate data sources are often not sufficiently coordinated or shared across the regions that make up the basin, making it difficult to design and implement unified policies. This lack of integration complicates decision-making, creates gaps that hinder the development of cohesive strategies that are essential for managing the basin’s shared resources, increases the likelihood that conflicting measures will be taken in different jurisdictions, undermining the overall resilience of the basin. Although the International Meuse Commission (IMC) acts as platform for exchange and coordination of river basin water management strategies and guarantor of compliance with EU directives like the Water Framework Directive, it lacks the authority and capacity to ensure efficient information exchange among riparian regions. At present, regions and countries turn to bi- or multilateral agreements and projects independently of the IMC. The Netherlands for instance deploys great diplomatic efforts Belgium in an attempt to improve information sharing with Belgium.

This paper examines the relevance and effectiveness of a river basin organization in a basin where regions tend to prefer bilateral agreements and action guided by local implementation visions. It compares the advantages and disadvantages of a governance structure based primarily on bilateral relations with the river basin approach. It reflects on the IMC framework ostensibly regulated by the Water Framework Directive and its failure to add value to effective transboundary river basin cooperation.

Key Words:

Climate change adaptation, international basin cooperation, knowledge co-production, policy integration, transboundary water governance

How to cite: Telle, A. and Bréthaut, C.: Assessing Fragmented Governance and Data Integration Challenges in the Meuse River Basin: A Review of Transboundary Cooperation Effectiveness, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14407, 2025.

EGU25-15373 | PICO | NH1.5

Cross-border hydrological hazard and risk differences in the case of the Prut River for Romania and the Republic of Moldova 

Mihai Niculita, Tatiana Bunduc, Iurii Bejan, Ioana Chiriac, Elena-Oana Chelariu, Aliona Botnari, Andreea Fedor, and Mihai Ciprian Margarint

In hazard-to-risk assessment, often given the same natural hazard situations, risk is generalized in terms of scenarios and vulnerability. In reality, even in the same natural hazard situations, vulnerability can be different, considering different natural, social, political and economic aspects. This is also the case of the Prut floodplain, which has long been a hard political border and where two different socio-economic regimes have shaped human-environment interactions over the last 55-75 years. Despite the joint construction of the Stânca-Costești reservoir, predominantly downstream the Romanian side built dikes, after the Second World War, resulting in a lower theoretical vulnerability. On the Moldovan side, the dyke network is not very extensive and especially in the floods after 2000, the vulnerability and risks were greater. We mapped the dike network on both banks of the Prut River on LiDAR data and synthesized the post-2000 flood impact to establish a vulnerability estimation framework.

How to cite: Niculita, M., Bunduc, T., Bejan, I., Chiriac, I., Chelariu, E.-O., Botnari, A., Fedor, A., and Margarint, M. C.: Cross-border hydrological hazard and risk differences in the case of the Prut River for Romania and the Republic of Moldova, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15373, 2025.

EGU25-15747 | ECS | PICO | NH1.5

Learning from the past to inform flood risk management: Analysis of public survey data in Belgium on flood early warning and response during the July 2021 flood 

Heather J. Murdock, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Benjamin Dewals, Anna Heidenreich, and Annegret H. Thieken

In July 2021 an intense and rapid onset rainfall event resulted in severe flooding in Belgium as well as neighbouring countries of Germany, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. The region of Wallonia in Belgium was severely affected with the Vesdre River valley in the province of Liège being particularly hard-hit, with 39 reported fatalities there. The warning system was significantly criticised in the aftermath of the event. Hence, this work addresses the flood forecasting warning and response system (FFWRS) performance in Belgium for the July 2021 flood with a focus on Wallonia. The analysis is based on an online survey (n=550) and addresses the reception of official warnings, interpretation and trust in the warnings, and response behaviour. We investigate which variables may influence behaviour and situational factors which leads to people receiving an official warning in time before the flood including flood severity experienced and risk perception. We find that among the respondents in Wallonia 33% reported that they had not been warned and while 28% were warned through official channels, many did not know how to respond. From a similar survey conducted in Germany we see comparable results, suggesting that there were similar cross border challenges. A first regression analysis of the Belgian data suggests that respondents whose household was highly affected were less likely to receive an official warning in time which is consistent with testimonies reporting that inhabitants in severely affected areas were particularly surprised by the flood. We also investigate the role of risk perception and flood warning. This points to some of the challenges with effectively early warning for flash floods. Our analysis highlights the need to improve Belgium's flood warning system by ensuring timely issuance of warnings and enhanced public understanding. In addition, with a comparison of results to the Germany data we discuss common challenges but also important differences.

How to cite: Murdock, H. J., Rodriguez Castro, D., Dewals, B., Heidenreich, A., and Thieken, A. H.: Learning from the past to inform flood risk management: Analysis of public survey data in Belgium on flood early warning and response during the July 2021 flood, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15747, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15747, 2025.

EGU25-17200 | ECS | PICO | NH1.5

Integrating conceptual risk models with an adaptation pathways approach to assess and manage systemic drought risks across sectors and boarders 

Edward Sparkes, Davide Cotti, Ananya Ramesh, Saskia Werners, and Michael Hagenlocher

To tackle systemic drought risks, both short-term and long-term decision making that anticipates climate change and balances the varying needs and availability of water across different sectors is required. Adaptation pathways are a promising approach which can enable this, by indicating how to implement adaptation options progressively depending on how drought risks emerge under different hydrological and societal conditions. However, for adaptation pathways to be effective for managing systemic drought risks, they need to take into consideration cross-sectoral and cross-border effects, and therefore be informed by risk assessments that identify vulnerabilities and underlying risk drivers across multiple sectors. In this presentation we showcase research from the recently published World Drought Atlas, demonstrating how conceptual models of drought risks can integrate with a pathways approach to manage shared impacts and drivers of drought risks across different sectors.

Individual Drought Impact Chains derived from literature were developed for five impacted systems at the global level (water supply, agriculture, hydropower, inland navigation and ecosystems). These were brought together to create a systemic conceptual model that identified cross-sectoral and cross-border impacts and shared underlying drivers and root causes of drought risks across systems. We then showed how different risk management and adaptation measures, which are often designed for a single system, can have positive effects across different, interconnected systems by tackling these shared risk drivers and root causes. The chosen measures covered diverse sectoral needs, focusing on water resource management, land-use management and governance aspects, and included grey infrastructure, early warning systems, Nature-based Solutions and community-based approaches. Finally, the measures were brought together in a pathways approach, demonstrating how different clusters of measures, when implemented progressively and in consideration of one another, can strengthen co-benefits and create synergies across systems. The pathways show how combing measures can be more effective against increasing levels of risk, and also when measures cease to be effective and a shift to a new pathway is needed. The pathways framework additionally supports the timing of when measures should be considered for implementation, avoiding less desirable adaptation decisions until absolutely necessary.

While this methodology was developed in the context of managing systemic and cross-border drought risks, the measures and pathways also have high relevance for flood management. This signals that such an approach cold equally be developed for systemic flood risks, or for managing hydrological extremes from both floods and droughts. By integrating adaptation pathways with a cross-sectoral conceptual model of risks, dynamic adaptation planning is supported that connects the vulnerabilities of multiple systems with prospective, forward looking risk management. This helps to reduce uncertainty and manage trade-offs in decision making. Such an approach shows the benefits of taking a systemic lens towards the management of drought risks.

How to cite: Sparkes, E., Cotti, D., Ramesh, A., Werners, S., and Hagenlocher, M.: Integrating conceptual risk models with an adaptation pathways approach to assess and manage systemic drought risks across sectors and boarders, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17200, 2025.

EGU25-17389 | PICO | NH1.5

Stress testing landscapes’ response to climatic extremes with and without sponge measures 

Laddaporn Ruangpan, Angela Klein, Christian Albert, Alejandro Dussaillant, Kymo Slager, and Ellis Penning

With global climate change, it is not only getting warmer but precipitation patterns are also shifting. This leads to more intense or prolonged precipitation as well as periods with reduced or no precipitation. Stress testing, a technique originally from engineering, assesses the stability of an object under adverse conditions and has been widely used in the financial sector to evaluate the impact of interacting drivers of change and to plan actions to minimize risks in a standardized and transparent manner.  In the water sector, stress testing has also recently been employed in the Netherlands to map out the vulnerabilities of landscapes and the assets in it to weather extremes. This research aims to advance this stress testing methodology to aid dialogues on improving climate resilience of landscapes. The developed framework serves as a systematic evaluation process designed to assess a system’s behaviour under progressively increasing stress levels linked to a wider variety of hydro-meteorological events. It lists key stressors driving the system and proposes indicators to evaluate performance under stress, including system responses expressed as extend of floods and droughts, shifts in water quality and biodiversity values, and socioeconomic impact. In this research, the methodology is applied by conducting hydrological model experiments to simulate flood and drought scenarios in transboundary catchments. Using a range of stress tests, we explore landscapes’ sensitivity to variations in precipitation patterns and initial conditions. Additionally, the study evaluates potential sponge measures designed to mitigate system stress and enhance its resilience before critical failures occur. By testing these measures, the study assesses their capacity to reduce system pressure, improve adaptability, and enhance resilience to extreme events to limit critical failure or significant operational disruptions.

How to cite: Ruangpan, L., Klein, A., Albert, C., Dussaillant, A., Slager, K., and Penning, E.: Stress testing landscapes’ response to climatic extremes with and without sponge measures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17389, 2025.

EGU25-18504 | ECS | PICO | NH1.5

Understanding low flow genesis in the International Meuse Basin 

Deborah Dotta Correa, Micha Werner, and Norbert Cremers

More frequent and more severe low flow events under a changing climate pose significant challenges to water management and impact various sectors such as agriculture, water supply, navigation, energy and recreation. Low flow events naturally occur as a result of periods of drought. While the generation and propagation of low flows will depend on basin characteristics, these are also influenced by human actions, which can aggravate or attenuate their intensity and duration. Here, we focus on understanding of the genesis and propagation of low flows in the Meuse Basin, a transboundary basin shared by France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, and the Netherlands. Characteristics of the different sub-basins of the Meuse were analysed using an extensive 40-year observed streamflow dataset collated from multiple providers across the basin (e.g., Rijkswaterstaat, SPW, EauFrance, ELWAS-WEB, Vlaanderen Waterinfo, Waterschap Limburg). The collated dataset is used to identify low flow periods by comparing daily streamflow to a 20% non-exceedance seasonally adjusted threshold. The degree of human influence is then determined by contrasting indices such as low flow duration and deficit volume between a benchmark naturalised time series and the human-influenced time series. The storage capacity of sub-basins is analysed through annual and seasonal baseflow volumes as well as sub-basin recession constants. The study revealed that sub-basins like the Rur, Amblève and Chiers are high baseflow contributors, though significant human influences are found. This contrasts with the Upper Meuse, which has a lower human influence, albeit with a limited baseflow contribution. Aggravation of low flows due to human influences can be linked to agricultural land use and water abstractions in the basin as well as reservoirs though these can either aggravate or attenuate low flows, depending on how these are operated. These findings provide important insights into the genesis of low flows and water storage in the Meuse. This understanding lays the foundation for proposing tailored adaptation measures at the sub-basin level depending on its characteristics that have the potential to increase the overall basin storage potential and optimise water management; including through Nature-Based Solutions, improved reservoir operations and other infrastructural interventions.

How to cite: Dotta Correa, D., Werner, M., and Cremers, N.: Understanding low flow genesis in the International Meuse Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18504, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18504, 2025.

EGU25-20048 | PICO | NH1.5

PASSAGE: strengthening PAStoral livelihoodS in the African Greater horn through Effective anticipatory action 

Pedram Rowhani, Chloe Hopling, Ahmed Mohamoud, Dominic Kathiya, Gift Mashango, and Maurine Ambani

Using transdisciplinary approaches, PASSAGE brings together a diverse team with the aim of addressing several gaps by co-developing with pastoral communities, local government, and the civil society, inclusive and cross-scale risk narratives and anticipatory action (AA) plans based on predictive multi-hazard impact-based forecasts to effectively build the resilience of pastoral communities. PASSAGE particularly focuses on the transboundary regions within the region as these host the most vulnerable pastoral communities with acute malnutrition levels. 

The current food insecurity over the Greater Horn of Africa region is deeply alarming, with millions among the pastoral communities particularly affected. Whilst this evolving food security crisis has been well monitored and forecasted, the extent of early actions has been demonstrably insufficient to save lives and livelihoods. The goal of PASSAGE, a CLARE-funded project, is to co-produce knowledge for action with all sections of pastoral societies. The project is driven by research questions and activities, which include identifying indicators and triggers that best capture the impacts of drought and extreme temperature on diverse socio-ecological landscapes; estimating the cascading impacts of these hazards on pastoral livelihoods; evaluating the most effective AA to build the resilience of pastoral communities at phased lead times; and defining mechanisms for coordinated transboundary AA plans. The project is at its midway point and we will be sharing some exciting results. 

How to cite: Rowhani, P., Hopling, C., Mohamoud, A., Kathiya, D., Mashango, G., and Ambani, M.: PASSAGE: strengthening PAStoral livelihoodS in the African Greater horn through Effective anticipatory action, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20048, 2025.

EGU25-720 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

How “leaky” should a leaky dam be? Insights from physical modelling at a white-water rafting course 

Anthony Jones, Julia Knapp, Sim Reaney, and Ian Pattison

Leaky dams, particularly those constructed from large woody material, are increasingly implemented in headwater streams to reduce runoff rates by enhancing channel roughness, slowing flow velocities, and creating temporary water storage during high-flow events to desynchronise flood peaks within catchments. Despite significant progress in modelling the hydraulic and hydrological effects of leaky dams through flume experiments and field studies, design guidance for the construction of leaky dams still needs to be improved. A key challenge in optimising designs is the limited availability of high-resolution pre- and post-intervention data in the field, particularly for extreme flood events, which constrains systematic evaluations of leaky dam performance. Enhanced observational studies are critical to validate the effectiveness of leaky dams and refine design strategies.

This study presents a controlled field experiment conducted at the Tees Barrage International White Water Centre, Stockton, UK, utilising a 300-meter white water rafting course to simulate flow events and evaluate the performance of three leaky dams under a range of flow conditions (up to 8.8 m³/s). Two dam designs were tested: (1) engineered dams constructed from pre-cut commercial timbers with consistent dimensions and (2) natural dams made from locally sourced pine timbers. The "leakiness" of the dams was systematically varied by adjusting timber spacings in increments of 10 mm to 100 mm.

Results demonstrate that both leaky dam designs effectively delayed flood peaks compared to the no-dam scenario. Engineered dams outperformed natural dams, delivering greater flood peak delays with better control of cross-sectional blockage. Smaller timber spacings further enhanced peak delays, with engineered dams achieving a 345-second delay and natural dams a 219-second delay relative to the no-dam scenario. Additionally, the study highlights the likely impact of debris accumulation over time on dam performance.

This research underscores the value of controlled artificial channels for generating precise, repeatable data on leaky dam performance under extreme flow conditions and provides a high-resolution dataset for in-channel hydrodynamic modelling. The findings advocate for further design-focused testing to optimise leaky dam configurations for improved flood mitigation, offering valuable insights for practitioners and researchers.

How to cite: Jones, A., Knapp, J., Reaney, S., and Pattison, I.: How “leaky” should a leaky dam be? Insights from physical modelling at a white-water rafting course, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-720, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-720, 2025.

EGU25-833 | Orals | NH1.7

Assessing the Ecosystem Services of Urban Green Space Based on Vegetation Model: Nature-Based Solution Approach in Delhi, India 

Pallavi Saxena, Ronak Raj Sharma, Saurabh Sonwani, and Anju Srivastava

Urban green spaces, an important component of nature-based solutions play a significant role in maintaining urban ecosystem sustainability by offering some ecosystem services. In this study, high-resolution satellite images were used to acquire the spatial distribution of urban green space, an advanced pre-stratified random sampling method was used to collect the vegetation information of Deer Park (urban green space) located in southern part of Delhi, India and i-TREE Eco vegetation model is used to assess the vegetation structure and ecosystem services like air quality improvement, rainfall interception, carbon storage and sequestration that can be use as an important sustainable tool to mitigate climate change and air pollution in Delhi. The modelling results showed that there were 250 trees with 2.072 acres of tree cover in this area. The most common tree species are Azadirachta indica, Erythrina lysistemon and Cassia fistula and there are 21% of trees which are having diameter less than 15.2 cm. In 2024, all trees in urban green space, Deer Park, could store about 73.96 tons of carbon, sequester about 3.196 tons of gross carbon, remove 30 tonnes of air pollutants/year and avoid 1.528 thousand gallon/year of runoff and oxygen production of 8.522 tons/year. This study outlines an innovative and sustainable method to observe the advantage of urban green space in Delhi by taking the Deer Park as one of the site with various ecosystem services to better understand their roles in regulating urban environment. This nature-based solution approach could help urban planners and policymakers to adopt this urban green space structure approach in Delhi which will further help in mitigating climate change mitigation, air pollution mitigation and maximize ecosystem services provision.

How to cite: Saxena, P., Sharma, R. R., Sonwani, S., and Srivastava, A.: Assessing the Ecosystem Services of Urban Green Space Based on Vegetation Model: Nature-Based Solution Approach in Delhi, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-833, 2025.

The increasing prevalence of impervious surfaces coupled with intense rainfall has exacerbated urban waterlogging, nonpoint source pollution, and ecosystem degradation. Nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged as effective strategies for urban stormwater management. This study proposes a four-objective simulation-optimization framework, integrating the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) with the NSGA-II algorithm, to optimize NBS layouts while accounting for ecosystem service value (ESV). Six NbS scenarios were evaluated in a case study in Beijing, China. Results indicated that rain garden scenarios outperformed others in maximizing ESV, particularly through enhanced net carbon sequestration. Sensitivity analysis revealed that pollution control rate exhibited greater variability than runoff reduction rate, and achieving simultaneous improvements in these metrics often incurred higher costs and reduced ESV. The optimal solution achieved a 51.95% runoff reduction rate, 87.35% pollution control rate, an ESV of 2.78 × 10⁵ CNY, and a cost of 40.14 × 10⁶ CNY. This framework provides a robust reference for harmonizing cost-efficiency, water quality and quantity control, and ecosystem service enhancement in urban stormwater management.

How to cite: Fang, D.: Multi-Objective Optimization of Nature-Based Solution Layouts for Enhanced Ecosystem Services, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-913, 2025.

EGU25-1168 | Posters on site | NH1.7

Assessing Nature-Based Solutions using the HEC-RAS modelling system: a review  

Ramtin Sabeti, Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen, Matt Chambers, Hamed Moftakhari, Ioanna Stamataki, and Solomon Simmonds

Nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained increasing attention in flood management since the early 2000s as sustainable alternatives or complements to conventional flood defence strategies. Based on a systematic review of 1,080 published studies, we provide recommendations for implementing common NBS intervention types in flood management using the HEC-RAS modelling framework. The review considered published case studies ranging from small catchments of approximately 0.09 km² to large river basins exceeding 2,400 km².

The potential interventions explored include reforestation/afforestation, floodplain reconnection, wetland restoration, channel re-meandering, and the hybridization or removal of grey infrastructure. The recommendations detail how to adjust key parameters within HEC-RAS to effectively represent these interventions. For instance, increasing Manning's roughness coefficients can simulate the added vegetative roughness from reforestation. Likewise, modifying the digital elevation model allows for the representation of floodplain reconnection, benching, or channel modifications. By offering quantifiable methods and a clear linkage between interventions and hydraulic parameters, this work equips practitioners and researchers with the necessary tools to model flood mitigation strategies using NBS within HEC-RAS. To generalise the findings beyond HEC-RAS and make them applicable to other hydraulic modelling platforms, each intervention is linked to specific terms in the governing equations: conservation of mass and momentum equations, highlighting how parameters such as friction slope are affected.

How to cite: Sabeti, R., Rodding Kjeldsen, T., Chambers, M., Moftakhari, H., Stamataki, I., and Simmonds, S.: Assessing Nature-Based Solutions using the HEC-RAS modelling system: a review , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1168, 2025.

EGU25-1420 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Nature-based solutions for coastal ecological restoration during rapid urbanization process under strategic planing and policy support: Case study of Chaoyang Port Coast, Weihai City, China 

Shasha Liu, Feng Cai, Michael Wagreich, Nelson Rangel-Buitrago, Yongzhi Peng, Tianyu Zhang, and Pengkai Wang

In Anthropocene, human activities have caused a lasting, substantial and often irreversible changes to the earth system. Coastal erosion and inundation are natural hazards that threaten the safety of humans’ properties and lives. Adaptive actions to combat coastal erosion generally rely on single method of Nature-based solutions (Nbs)—hard structures, soft engineering, or vegetation. However, instances of multiple Nbs being employed together are seldom studied, particularly in morphologically complex coasts. This paper briefly reviews the current governmental policy context in China (at national, provincial and urban levels) for climate adaptation in coastal zones and presents a local implementation process involving multiple Nbs applications at Chaoyang Port Coast in Weihai city. The analysis reveals that integrated policies and city orientation drive the coastline protection and necessitate the adoption of nature-based solutions. It also demonstrates that integrated management measures (including beach remediation, gabion seawalls, and coastal shelter belts) can create a relatively stronger ecological disaster risk reduction system in morphologically complex coastal regions. Furthermore, the paper discusses the impacts of strategic planning and policies on coastal environment, technical advancements for coastal protection, and future challenge for sustainable development. Recommendations for ensuring the success of long-term coastal environment recovery include sustained political support, active public participation in local economic growth, and the advancement of Nbs technologies. Through insights from coastal management policies and nature-based solutions, our study not only highlights China’s commitment to environment governance but also provides a practical paradigm for shoreline management applicableto coastal cities in China and other coastal nations worldwide.

How to cite: Liu, S., Cai, F., Wagreich, M., Rangel-Buitrago, N., Peng, Y., Zhang, T., and Wang, P.: Nature-based solutions for coastal ecological restoration during rapid urbanization process under strategic planing and policy support: Case study of Chaoyang Port Coast, Weihai City, China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1420, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1420, 2025.

EGU25-1422 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Gazelle Valley Park – A case study of a dual urban nature-based solution for flood mitigation in a Mediterranean climate 

Yoav Ben Dor, Galit Sharabi, Sabri Alian, Raz Nussbaum, Efrat Morin, Elyasaf Freiman, Amanda Lind, Inbal Shemesh, Amir Balaban, Faygle Train, and Elad Levintal

Due to increasing flood risks related to climate change and urbanization, solutions addressing environmental challenges must be more effectively integrated into urban environments. Green spaces and blue-green infrastructure, which combine water, vegetation, and recreational areas, can contribute to both flood risk mitigation while addressing the urban heat island effect, ultimately enhancing the quality of life in cities. These facilities also promote biodiversity and ecological resilience, supporting stable ecosystems while providing green and open recreational spaces even in the heart of bustling urban areas. The Gazelle Valley Urban Nature Park, located in the densely populated metropolitan area of Jerusalem, Israel’s capital, serves as a prime example of such efforts. The establishment of this park is considered a groundbreaking social and environmental achievement, made possible by the struggle of residents, local activists, social organizations, and the Society for the Protection of Nature in Israel. Built to the highest ecological design standards, the park has quickly become a popular destination for both residents and visitors, offering a model for integrating eco-hydrological solutions into urban landscapes. As part of an ongoing study, water inflow and its quality within the park’s water system are monitored. The park’s water system, which is fed by stormwater during the wet season (winter) and treated wastewater during the dry season (summer), is tracked through online monitoring using a low-cost open-hardware station. When combined with sampling and laboratory analyses, online measurement helps assess water composition and water quality dynamics in order to evaluate the impact of an urban nature-based solution on water quality. This study also tests the applicability of low-cost open-hardware technology for environmental monitoring in aquatic ecosystems, while examining the effectiveness of nature-based solutions in improving the water quality of stormwater and treated wastewater in urban settings.

How to cite: Ben Dor, Y., Sharabi, G., Alian, S., Nussbaum, R., Morin, E., Freiman, E., Lind, A., Shemesh, I., Balaban, A., Train, F., and Levintal, E.: Gazelle Valley Park – A case study of a dual urban nature-based solution for flood mitigation in a Mediterranean climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1422, 2025.

EGU25-2521 | Posters on site | NH1.7

The feasibility studies of mitigation measures for landslides located above the Koroška Bela settlement in Northwest Slovenia 

Mateja Jemec Auflič, Tina Peternel, Yusuf Oluwasegun Ogunfolaji  , and Nejc Bezak

This study represents the feasibility study on landslide mitigation measures above the settlement of Koroška Bela in northwestern Slovenia. The settlement of Koroška Bela is very densely populated (about 2,100 inhabitants) and has a well-developed industry and infrastructure. The area above Koroška Bela has been recognized as one of the most active landslide-prone areas in Slovenia. It attracts attention due to historical evidence of past debris flows in recent geological history. The first recorded event occurred in the 18th century and caused the partial or complete destruction of more than 40 buildings and devastated cultivated areas in the village of Koroška Bela. In recent decades, two more events have occurred: In April 2017, part of the Čikla landslide turned into a debris flow, and in August 2023, the reactivation of the Urbas landslide led to the disruption of alarm systems and the triggering of emergency sirens. Each event was associated with prolonged and intense rainfall.

To reduce the landslide risk in Koroška Bela, a comprehensive engineering, geological and hydrogeological characterization of landslide-prone areas was required to prepare feasibility studies for mitigation and remediation strategies. So far, no specific remediation measures have been implemented, as the existing check dams do not have the necessary capacity to effectively manage sediment and debris flows.

Our findings highlight the need for holistic mitigation measures in order to protect residents and infrastructure. Key areas include stabilizing the Čikla and Urbas landslides and controlling sediment transport in the associated torrent systems. Given the complexity of these landslides, we propose a combination of traditional gray engineering (structural) measures alongside with hybrid solutions that integrate both gray and green elements. For debris- flow management, gray measures such as debris- flow barriers and flexible barriers are essential. To stabilize landslide-prone areas, hybrid solutions combining torrent channel works, drainage systems, and vegetative stabilization should be implemented.

As these landslides are situated in mountainous areas designated as Natura 2000 protected area, mitigation measures should incorporate green design principles that support both visual integration and ecological functions.

Acknowledgments: This research was funded by Slovenian Research And Innovation Agency through research project “J6-4628 - Evaluation of hazard-mitigating hybrid infrastructure under climate change scenarios” and research program “P1-0419 - Dynamic Earth”. Additional financial support was provided by the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, and the Municipality of Jesenice.

 

How to cite: Jemec Auflič, M., Peternel, T., Oluwasegun Ogunfolaji  , Y., and Bezak, N.: The feasibility studies of mitigation measures for landslides located above the Koroška Bela settlement in Northwest Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2521, 2025.

EGU25-3855 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Nature-based solutions for attenuating hydrometeorological hazards in coastal regions: Effectiveness and quantification approaches 

Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Abiy S. Kebede, Kwasi Appeaning Addo, Ashraf Dewan, Tuhin Ghosh, Christopher J. White, and Philip J. Ward

Deltaic coasts, with their fertile soils and diverse ecosystems, are critical for agriculture, trade, fisheries, energy supply, and manufacturing. However, these regions are highly susceptible to hydrometeorological hazards, including storms, flooding, and extreme temperature events. Anthropogenic climate change has exacerbated the frequency and intensity of such hazards, posing significant societal and environmental challenges. While traditional hard engineering structures (e.g., levees, dykes, sea walls) have been the primary approach to coastal protection, these solutions often increase hazard complexity and risks while requiring substantial financial investments. In contrast, nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged as cost-effective and sustainable alternatives or complements to traditional engineering approaches, demonstrating their potential to mitigate and adapt to coastal hydrometeorological hazards.
Quantifying the effectiveness and potential of NbS in attenuating hydrometeorological hazards in coastal regions remains challenging due to the complexity in spatiotemporal dynamics of hazards and variations in assessment methods (e.g., qualitative, quantitative, or mixed). Despite numerous studies on NbS in coastal and deltaic contexts, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluations addressing the types of NbS, their geographical applications, methodological robustness, and confidence in their effectiveness in addressing hydrometeorological hazards. This study bridges these gaps by systematically reviewing 330 peer-reviewed English-language articles published between 2008 and 2024, identified using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocol. The review focuses on five key hydrometeorological hazards in coastal and deltaic regions globally: storms, floods, extreme temperatures, extreme precipitation, and droughts. NbS are evaluated as substitutes, complements, or safeguards to hard engineering structures, considering both real-world and hypothetical case studies. A comprehensive framework, adapted from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is employed to evaluate NbS based on three criteria: (1) robustness of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, model validation), (2) the level of agreement (e.g., consistency of findings supporting NbS effectiveness), and (3) confidence (integrating robustness and agreement). 
The findings provide key typologies of NbS applications across different hydrometeorological hazards, with a predominant focus on storms and floods, while extreme temperatures and droughts receive comparatively less attention. Most studies evaluate the effectiveness of NbS options such as mangroves, coastal wetlands, dunes, and coral reefs in safeguarding coastal areas from hydrometeorological threats, often drawing insights from real-world case studies. Studies on floods and storms frequently employ numerical or hydrodynamic modelling, using indicators such as flood depth, extent, velocity, wave height, and wave energy. These studies consistently demonstrate high confidence in the effectiveness of NbS in attenuating storm and flood hazards in coastal and deltaic regions, attributed to their robust methodologies and consistent findings. 
The study highlights the effectiveness of NbS in mitigating coastal hydrometeorological hazards varies geographically, influenced by local factors such as geomorphology, hydrology, and human activities. Numerical or hydrodynamic modelling, supplemented by cost-benefit analyses and validated with observational data, is recommended for robust quantification of NbS benefits and trade-offs. These findings provide a foundation for future research and offer actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners, facilitating the integration of NbS into coastal hazard management as viable substitutes or complements to hard engineering measures.

How to cite: Adnan, M. S. G., Kebede, A. S., Addo, K. A., Dewan, A., Ghosh, T., White, C. J., and Ward, P. J.: Nature-based solutions for attenuating hydrometeorological hazards in coastal regions: Effectiveness and quantification approaches, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3855, 2025.

EGU25-4245 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Using remote sensing to parameterise a leaky barrier hydraulic unit   

Hannah Champion, Elizabeth Follett, Barry Hankin, and Mike Hopkins

A canopy-resistance based debris factor, CA (Follett et al., 2020), can be used to model the head-loss from flows passing through and over a leaky barrier. The advantage over a Mannings coefficient typically used in hydraulic modelling is the debris factor is a direct construct from physical factors characterising the bulk properties of the woody debris, including frontal area and bulk density. The debris factor has been established to be a robust predictor of head-loss across a range of flows. The aim here has been to quantify CA from remotely sensed data based on photogrammetric techniques estimating the required physical characteristics. To do this we have worked with a leading specialist UK surveyor, Storm Geomatics, who surveyed two small watercourses (Nethercote and Paddle brook) near Shipston-on-Stour, England.    

A HEC-RAS 2D-only hydraulic model driven by design rainfall has been setup with 37 features in Nethercote Brook. The debris factor was first estimated based on photographic lookup and then refined to be based on analysis of photogrammetric data. For each unit a rating equation is generated given the estimate of CA which governs the head losses. The intention is that this process will become automated, such that a hydraulic unit for the leaky barrier can be generated automatically.  

An equivalent reach-scale Mannings roughness (see Follett and Hankin, 2022) is also considered with a view to using in other catchments more easily based on the type of modelling typically undertaken. In a further UK case study, in the intensively monitored Eddleston Water catchment, the reach-scale roughness approach was also tested for leaky barriers in Middle Burn, applying a Mannings uplift based off photographs taken of the leaky barrier construction. Here CA is estimated and the equations to convert to a reach-scale equivalent Mannings is used.  

As 3d point-cloud data from photogrammetry becomes more widely available, the intention is to make it easier to quantify CA and use the canopy resistance-based equations to generate a hydraulic unit for use in e.g. HEC-RAS 2D directly. This will help quantify the effectiveness of a range of nature-based solutions from large wood to woody debris barriers to slow the flow.  

Follett, E., Schalko, I., & Nepf, H. 2020. Momentum and energy predict the backwater rise generated by a large wood jam. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089346. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2020GL089346 

Follett, E., Hankin, B., 2022. Investigation of effect of logjam series for varying channel and barrier physical properties using a sparse input data 1D network model. Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 158, 2022, 105543, ISSN 1364-8152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105543 

Hankin, B., Hewitt, I., Sander, G., Danieli, F., Formetta, G., Kamilova, A., Kretzschmar, A., Kiradjiev, K., Wong, C., Pegler, S., and Lamb, R. 2020: A risk-based, network analysis of distributed in-stream leaky barriers for flood risk management. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2567–2584, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2567-2020 . 

How to cite: Champion, H., Follett, E., Hankin, B., and Hopkins, M.: Using remote sensing to parameterise a leaky barrier hydraulic unit  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4245, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4245, 2025.

EGU25-4972 | Orals | NH1.7 | Highlight

An Integrated Catchment-Scale Approach to Urban River WaterQuality Using Constructed Wetlands 

Ana Mijic, Fangjun Peng, Saumya Srivastava, Barnaby Dobson, and Leyang Liu

Urban catchments include land, groundwater, sewer, river, and other water components. Together, these elements form a complex, integrated urban water system. Managing river water quality in such systems is particularly challenging due to built (grey) infrastructure, which increases pollutant impact through impervious surfaces and increases stormwater runoff, limiting natural filtration processes. In response, many cities have begun to adopt constructed wetlands (CWs) as natural (blue-green) infrastructure to improve river water quality at the catchment scale. Despite their growing use, several challenges persist, including how to quantify the impact of CWs on river water quality, optimise the design of multiple wetlands, and apply these insights to catchment[1]wide planning. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an integrated planning and design framework for CWs aimed at improving water quality across urban catchments. Specifically, the framework focuses on (1) assessing pollutant removal by CWs, (2) designing CWs locally, and (3) integrating CWs into larger catchment plans.

To develop and test this approach, we first created a CW module within the Water Systems Integrated Modelling (WSIMOD) framework, enabling the simulation of interactions between CWs and other water components in urban catchments. We then applied this module to the Pymmes and Salmon Brook catchments in the UK to evaluate river water quality before and after constructing CWs. Next, we used the model to explore various design variables (e.g., area, size, configuration) for placing new CWs within each sub-catchment, quantifying their effectiveness in improving river water quality. Finally, we propose a guiding principle for CW planning based on these findings, illustrating how different spatial layouts affect the achievement of nitrogen and phosphorus targets within sub-catchments.

How to cite: Mijic, A., Peng, F., Srivastava, S., Dobson, B., and Liu, L.: An Integrated Catchment-Scale Approach to Urban River WaterQuality Using Constructed Wetlands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4972, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4972, 2025.

EGU25-5705 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Modelling the effect of a vegetated mid-channel bar on large wood accumulation at bridge piers 

Elisabetta Persi, Wafae Ennouini, Dana Karimikordestani, Diego Ravazzolo, Gabriella Petaccia, and Stefano Sibilla

Wood is a key-component of river ecosystems, but it is also regarded as a detrimental element that may increase the hydraulic risk. For example, large accumulations of wood and fine vegetation at bridge piers can reduce the bridge span and generate afflux, potentially extending flooded areas. Such vegetation is generally transported during floods, originating from landslides, debris-flow and bank erosion. Additionally, river re-naturalization and nature-based solutions like large wood addition or the building of vegetation patches, may inadvertently contribute to wood transport. Therefore, both natural events and human interventions can increase the amount of transported wood, potentially increasing associated hydraulic risks.

While several studies have addressed the risks related to wood accumulation at bridge piers, significantly less attention has been given to wood accumulation processes at natural structures, like vegetated bars. Similarly to bridge piers, stable vegetated islands can trap wood, fostering its accumulation, reducing or delaying its mobility and protecting the downstream areas.

The present contribution analyses the influence of a mid-channel vegetated bar on large wood transport in the Adda River (Italy) employing the two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model ORSA2D_WT, which includes large wood transport dynamics. The vegetated island is located just upstream of a four-pier bridge. Its effect in terms of trajectory deviation, accumulation at the bar, and wood-pier interaction is analyzed by simulating different scenarios of flow, and large wood abundance and positioning.

The results highlight that the presence of stable non-erodible vegetation on a bar upstream of the bridge reduces the interaction between the wood and the piers, thus reducing the probability of accumulation. In addition, the ORSA2D_WT model aids in identifying which piers are most subject to impacts from transported wood, thus facilitating maintenance strategies. The proposed approach could be applied to other natural or human structures, to assess their efficacy in sheltering downstream critical sections from wood accumulation.

How to cite: Persi, E., Ennouini, W., Karimikordestani, D., Ravazzolo, D., Petaccia, G., and Sibilla, S.: Modelling the effect of a vegetated mid-channel bar on large wood accumulation at bridge piers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5705, 2025.

EGU25-6088 | Posters on site | NH1.7

Evaluating the Effects of Different Adaptation Strategies to Climate and Land Use Change upon Water Fluxes in the Ave Watershed, Portugal 

Morteza Zargar, Zryab Babker, Tim G. Reichenau, and Karl Schneider

The increasing variability and extremes of hydrological cycles driven by climate change present critical challenges to water resource availability, raising the likelihood of floods and droughts. Understanding the potential impacts of changing climate patterns on future water resources is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the DISTENDER project (EU Horizon-ID 101056836), we focus on assessing the resilience of European watersheds to climate stressors by modeling future water scenarios and identifying sustainable water management practices.

This research comprehensively examines the impact of climate and future land use changes on extreme events in Ave Watershed in Northern Portugal using the MIKE SHE hydrological model. Future climate change projections (2021 to 2050) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were obtained from CMIP6 and were statistically downscaled. Annual 1-day and 3-day high runoff were used as a proxy for the extreme high runoff characteristics. We then evaluate three adaptive strategies for those impacts:

  • Nature-based solutions: Restoring wetlands identified in the "Extended Wetland Ecosystem data," implementing sustainable agricultural practices, and adopting low-impact development methods like green and sponge cities.
  • Technical solutions: Introducing new reservoirs in sub-watersheds lacking reservoirs to simulate cumulative effects of rainwater retention, check dams, or other storage infrastructures.
  • Hybrid approach: Combining nature-based and technical solutions to maximize the benefits of water resources management.

The climate effects show an increase in the future 1-day and 3-day flood magnitudes across all gauges and return periods. The 100-year 1-day flood in Ave River is projected to range between 496 m³/s (33% increase in SSP 3-7.0) and 721 m³/s (94% in SSP 5-8.5), compared to 372 m³/s during the reference period (1980-2020). Future land use maps for 2020–2050 were generated using the CORINE land cover and the iCLUE model based on different SSPs. Incorporating these maps into the hydrological model shows further intensification of extreme events. For instance, using the 2050 land use map, the 100-year 1-day flood is expected to range 664 m³/s (77% in SSP 3-7.0) and 866 m³/s (133 % in SSP 5-8.5) compared to the reference period. Simulations of the adaptation strategies show that nature-based solutions can reduce flood peaks by 22–32%, while technical solutions achieve 20–46% reductions, depending on the SSP. The hybrid approach demonstrates the most efficient adaptation solution, reducing flood peaks by 37–67%. For SSPs 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0, the hybrid approach brings flood peaks close to those observed during the reference period.

By analyzing these strategies individually and collectively, the study identifies the hybrid approach as the most effective for enhancing resilience to extreme events and ensuring the sustainability of water resources. Efficacy analyses of adaptation options are essential to guide a stakeholder dialog and facilitate the necessary transformation. DISTENDER provides a methodological framework to identify and develop climate adaptation and mitigation strategies by integrating these results into a decision-support system.

Keywords: Adaptation strategies, Climate change, Land use, CMIP6 Climate Model, MIKE SHE, Ave catchment

How to cite: Zargar, M., Babker, Z., Reichenau, T. G., and Schneider, K.: Evaluating the Effects of Different Adaptation Strategies to Climate and Land Use Change upon Water Fluxes in the Ave Watershed, Portugal, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6088, 2025.

Flooding is one of the great issues of our time and is the most damaging environmental hazard globally, costing over €40 billion a year in Europe alone. Solving the problem is a huge challenge. Climate change, resulting in wetter winters and more intense summer storms, is aggravating flooding. Meanwhile, demand for land to feed and house growing populations leads to increasing concentrations of people and assets in areas exposed to flooding, and ongoing land use change continues to increase the severity and frequency of flooding.

Traditionally flooding has been managed primarily through large, engineered structures, but these structures are costly to install and maintain, and often provide flood reduction benefits to the detriment of the environment, e.g., having a negative effect on wildlife and biodiversity. These consideration have, in recent years, driven a move away from such structures to multiple small-scale nature-based interventions distributed across the landscape, an example of which is the leaky barrier (LB). LBs can be used to mitigate flood risk and provide other benefits such as reducing diffuse pollution. Yet, LBs are poorly understood.

At present, there is no accepted way of representing LBs in models, although there have been attempts to put multiple LBs into hydraulic models of catchment systems. Modelling approaches include using high values of Manning’s n to represent LBs; modelling them as reductions in cross-sectional area; using combined weir/sluice gate equations; and using an equivalent ‘outlet pipe diameter’, defined by the amount of flow able to flow under, through or around the barrier as a parameter to represent leakiness. These models provide useful clues as to how combinations of features may behave in aggregate, but it is far from clear what sort of LBs they represent and there is high uncertainty associated with the results obtained.

The research discussed here combines physical and mathematical modelling to improve understanding of LB behaviour. Hydraulic flume experiments are conducted which model a range of naturally occurring and constructed LBs, including upright obstructions as a model of growing vegetation and horizontal obstructions as an analogue of log jams, woody debris barriers and beaver dams, all of which often form horizontal, or nearly horizontal, obstructions to the flow. Experiments show that barrier design has a big impact on the hydraulics. It is shown that some existing approaches, such as using an equivalent ‘outlet pipe diameter’ or a high Manning’s n were not able to capture the observed behaviour. This raises a series of questions about the sensitivity of hydraulic behaviour to various design parameters and what is required to model LBs adequately.

Data from the simplest design: the single horizontal barrier, was used to inform a finite volume model of the flume and LB. The combined weir/sluice gate equations are shown to provide a good model of a single horizontal barrier. However, the behaviour of the other LB designs is significantly different and cannot be represented adequately using this model.

How to cite: Hewett, C.: Unravelling the hydraulics of leaky barriers: physical and mathematical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6152, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6152, 2025.

EGU25-6721 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Experimental insights into the abrasion of large wood in rivers 

Jiangtao Yang, Frank Seidel, and Mário J. Franca

When transported in rivers, large wood interacts with one another and with flow, sediment, and river boundaries, leading to their physical degradation. This degradation, causing mass of loss and changing of the geometry of the wood, is relevant to various fluvial processes, including bed morphology evolution, aquatic habitat variation, changes to the local environment, and the carbon cycle. The physical degradation of large wood can be categorized into two main types processes, based on wood types and the characteristics of the wood physical motion: abrasion and debranching. Field observations suggest that abrasion primarily occurs through collision and shearing during transport, affecting large trunks as well as fragmented branches. In contrast, debranching results from the rotation of large woods and collisions with the riverbed, with the extent of this process closely tied to the wood's structural properties.

Previous studies have largely focused on large wood transport, the formation of logjams, and the bio-chemical degradation of smaller wood components (such as sticks and leaves) within aquatic habitats. While these studies have deepened our understanding of wood characteristics and their interactions with the environment, physical wood degradation during transport remains underexplored. This degradation affects wood transportation, logjam formation and failure, and aquatic habitats. Therefore, a more detailed understanding of the physical degradation process is crucial for advancing research on large woods in rivers.

Here we introduce a laboratory-based tumbling machine experiment to investigate the abrasion process of large woods during river transport. Preliminary tests examine the relationship between wood abrasion and the potential energy of water flow. Wood samples, with diameters of 10–15 cm and a diameter-to-length ratio of 0.5, were selected from various tree species. Experiments were conducted under different water depths and flow velocities. Our methodology includes measuring the basic physical properties of the wood samples, using motion sensors, and combining 3D printed sensors to monitor their movement characteristics. Additionally, Surface from Motion (SfM) is employed to capture changes in the wood samples' Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) before and after the experiments, enabling precise quantification of degradation volume and patterns.

Preliminary results will be discussed considering the level of observed wood abrasion, size alterations, and debarking of the wood surfaces. Specifically, the influence of water depth and relative flow velocity on wood abrasion will be discussed. Wood abrasion will be quantified using specific indicators, allowing us to define distinct degradation patterns and their mechanisms. The potential findings will highlight the connection between river flow energy and physical wood abrasion, offering preliminary insights into the mechanisms underlying wood abrasion in rivers. 

Keywords: Large wood; wood abrasion; debarking process; experimental design; wood abrasion pattern

How to cite: Yang, J., Seidel, F., and Franca, M. J.: Experimental insights into the abrasion of large wood in rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6721, 2025.

EGU25-6733 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

A Framework for Evaluating the Long-Term Efficiency of Coastal Nature-Based Solutions: Assessing Surface and Subsurface Processes 

Valentina Uribe Jaramillo, Arjen Luijendijk, and Perry de Louw

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are widely known as effective strategies for enhancing coastal resilience to climate change. However, assessing their long-term efficiency remains challenging due to the complex interacting processes within coastal systems and the uncertainties associated with future climate scenarios.

Many existing frameworks for evaluating coastal NbS focus on single-domain systems, often simplifying key processes to reduce the complexity of modeling. However, coastal systems are inherently complex and include not only surface processes but also the subsurface groundwater domain. Therefore, to successfully integrate NbS into landscape planning and study their long-term efficiency, it is essential to understand the entire system, and to quantify the relevant interactions between surface and groundwater processes and their influence over the system’s resilience.  

This research introduces a framework to evaluate the long-term efficiency of coastal NbS by identifying key surface and subsurface (groundwater) processes and trade-offs and synergies within the system. The framework is designed for application in coastal systems characterized by sandy beaches and sedimentary aquifers and its applicability is demonstrated through a case study on the island of Terschelling. For the case study, two NbS are evaluated: (1) a beach nourishment from 1993 and (2) the potential implementation of Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR). The long-term efficiency and resilience to climate change of these solutions are quantified using ecosystem, geomorphological, and hydrological indicators through numerical modelling (using Delft3D and Modflow) and scenario-based analysis.

Additionally, the study highlights the importance of understanding how NbS may require time to enhance the system’s resilience or lead to unexpected impacts under future climate conditions. Providing a better overview of trade-offs and synergies can reduce the uncertainty related to the long-term component, facilitating the uptake of NbS as a sustainable coastal management solution.

How to cite: Uribe Jaramillo, V., Luijendijk, A., and de Louw, P.: A Framework for Evaluating the Long-Term Efficiency of Coastal Nature-Based Solutions: Assessing Surface and Subsurface Processes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6733, 2025.

EGU25-9562 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Evolution and evaluation of Stormwater Parks in Sweden 

Sofia Hallerbäck, Erik Persson Pavlovic, Cecilia Alfredsson, and Magnus Johansson

This study addresses the challenge of balancing ecosystem needs with rapid urban expansion by evaluating the relatively new phenomenon in Sweden of Stormwater Parks. These blue-green infrastructure parks are proposed as solutions for flooding and water pollution by enhancing ecosystem services and creating green recreational spaces. However, it is crucial to assess the potential and pitfalls of any new type of infrastructure, as well as to evaluate the effects from a multispecies justice perspective. This study presents a novel mixed methods approach to critically assess the multifunctionality of green infrastructure and nature-based solutions. The methods include data collection from implemented Stormwater Parks across Sweden, analysis of past and present aerial photos, field visits, and policy analysis. The study demonstrates the potential of using Carole Bacchi’s “What’s the problem represented to be?” approach to deconstruct nature-based solutions. The findings from the review highlight the importance of problematizing which issues and whose challenges a nature-based solution overlook or address.

How to cite: Hallerbäck, S., Persson Pavlovic, E., Alfredsson, C., and Johansson, M.: Evolution and evaluation of Stormwater Parks in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9562, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9562, 2025.

EGU25-10713 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

A symbolic regression approach to illuminate the water-energy-food-ecosystem interlinkages in a rainwater harvesting system 

Kyriakos Kandris, Nikolaos Markatos, Chrysanthi Elisabeth Nika, and Evina Katsou

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are increasingly considered as components of strategies aiming to address climate-related challenges, since their impact expands across more than one aspect of the water, energy, food, and ecosystems (WEFE) nexus. Therefore, searching for tangible evidence on the impact of NBS requires addressing the complexities of the WEFE nexus, which is characterized by dynamic and highly nonlinear relationships. These complexities may challenge traditional modeling approaches, which would rely heavily on human intuition and the cumbersome integration of individual sub-models.

Driven by the continuous improvement of monitoring capabilities, the increase of computational power, and the emergence of efficient algorithms, data-oriented solutions gather momentum in the efforts to identify dynamic systems in a multitude of domains. Nonetheless, such solutions are rarely adopted by the nexus community.

In this work we aim to investigate the potential of data-driven approaches to identify the underlying dynamics of systems that exhibit properties commonly encountered in many WEFE nexus systems, such as nonlinearity, high dimensionality and non-stationarity (e.g., the exposure to extreme events).

To unravel these complexities, we employed a symbolic regression (SR) approach within a case study of a rainwater harvesting system operating in Mykonos, Greece. This system is designed to collect, treat, and store rainwater for agricultural reuse. A sub-surface collection system captures rainwater, diverting it into two storage tanks. The collected water irrigates an agricultural field using precision irrigation, optimizing water usage and minimizing waste. The system integrates components of the WEFE nexus, enhancing water security through rainwater collection and treatment, promoting energy security by reducing reliance on groundwater abstraction, improving soil quality, and enhancing food security through sustainable agricultural practices.

A one-year long dataset was generated from a set of individual process-based sub-models that simulate diverse components of the nexus, including (a) the system’s water balances (comprising infiltration, surface runoff and evapotranspiration), (b) water quality dynamics in the storage tanks, (c) energy consumption, and (d) plant growth dynamics, based on the estimated water stress and nutrient limitations that affect growth and yield. To mimic real-world conditions, we introduced random noise and incorporated missingness, simulating the variability and incompleteness of observational data. SR was applied to the dataset, aiming to inversely estimate the equations that describe the functional behavior of the NBS. SR employs a multi-population evolutionary algorithm, which navigates within the space of analytic expressions in search of accurate and parsimonious models.

The results unveiled parsimonious expressions that captured the dynamics of the system across different external hydrometeorological forcings with reasonable accuracy. These equations provided interpretable insights into the mechanisms underpinning this rainwater harvesting system, resonating, at the same time, with existing scientific understanding. This approach is an example of the potential of data-driven methodologies to enhance the understanding of NBS and their capacity to address multifaceted challenges. Even if a globally valid analytical expression for such systems is probably infeasible, this work managed to set-up a data-driven methodology for deciphering the WEFE nexus at a local scale, providing also a tool for optimizing NBS performance and informing decision-making.

How to cite: Kandris, K., Markatos, N., Nika, C. E., and Katsou, E.: A symbolic regression approach to illuminate the water-energy-food-ecosystem interlinkages in a rainwater harvesting system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10713, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10713, 2025.

EGU25-10852 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Effect of engineered logjams on hydrodynamics and fish response 

Felix Broß, Clémence Dorthe, Kelken Chang, Filippo Coletti, and Isabella Schalko

Due to human interventions such as river channelization, the diversity of the flow, sediment, and wood regimes in rivers has decreased. A common measure to locally reestablish flow heterogeneity are nature-based solutions such as logjams with the aim to create or increase habitats for aquatic organisms such as fish. To optimize the design of nature-based solutions and to leverage the habitat creation for fish, we need to create a better understanding of the underlying flow and turbulence characteristics due to nature-based solutions. 

Laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate how different logjams affect the flow and turbulence properties. High-speed imaging was used to characterize the flow field at the surface and at a vertical plane at the channel centerline. The experiments investigated logjams differing in solid volume fraction, submergence level, as well as log alignment. All tested parameters altered the wake region. The results of the log alignment indicate that a random arrangement can lead to an evenly reduced velocity in the wake and lower turbulence levels. In contrast, a regular arrangement can lead to jets going through the structure and entering the wake unblocked, resulting in higher turbulence levels. The different turbulence levels may have implications for fish response. 

As a next step, field measurements are planned to complement laboratory experiments. Selected engineered logjams will be investigated at a restored river reach at the Emme River in Switzerland. Specifically, flow measurements will be obtained through drone images and Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry and compared to results of fish abundance. 

 

 

How to cite: Broß, F., Dorthe, C., Chang, K., Coletti, F., and Schalko, I.: Effect of engineered logjams on hydrodynamics and fish response, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10852, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10852, 2025.

EGU25-11362 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Inorganic carbon unexpected driver of carbon sink response in an established beaver wetland 

Lukas Hallberg, Joshua Larsen, Annegret Larsen, Raphael d’Epagnier, Sarah Thurnheer, Natalie Ceperley, Bettina Schaefli, and Matthew Dennis

Riparian zones are critical links between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, controlling the biogeochemical fluxes and thus the fate of carbon (C) in stream networks. However, long-standing anthropogenic modifications of waterways have resulted in significant losses of riparian connectivity. Following re-introduction of beavers across Europe, the resulting reconnection of riparian interfaces shows a high potential for improving water quality and C sequestration. Beaver dam construction gives rise to sequential shifts in lotic and lentic conditions that support high capacities for C deposition and increase the C produced by aquatic primary producers. However, due to inconsistent system boundaries and the overlooking of certain C pathways, our current understanding of C budget dynamics in beaver wetlands remains incomplete.

In this study, we quantified the annual C budget in an established beaver-impacted reach in Switzerland. Inputs and outputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) loads were modelled from biweekly water sampling and flow monitoring, in conjunction with measurements of gaseous C fluxes from soil, water and dead trees. Sediment storage of deposited C fractions was quantified in soil samples that were subsequently analysed with Rock-Eval pyrolysis. Biomass C storage was estimated at a plant species level by combining biomass surveys in field with multispectral imagery from drone remote sensing. Following hydrology and bathymetry measurements, the reach water balance was established by quantifying in- and outflow, wetland storage, subsurface storage and infiltration, and evapotranspiration.

We found large reductions in DIC loads along the reach, representing the main driver of the wetland's overall C sink response. The water balance partitioning further demonstrated that subsurface pathways were the primary sink of DIC, which was removed through transient and permanent storage, and deeper infiltration. Carbon dioxide (CO2) mineralisation in non-inundated soils was the dominant source of C emissions from the system. However, the limited release of CO2 from water surfaces showed that only a negligible fraction of DIC was released via this pathway. Instead, the annual accumulation of inorganic C in sediments suggests that DIC immobilisation in sediments, in conjunction with deeper infiltration, can be a significant C sink.

These results show that established, semi-confined beaver wetlands primarily regulate C dynamics via hydrological processes, overriding biogeochemistry and riparian feedbacks from primary productivity. It further stresses their high sensitivity to shifts in the C sink-source balance, and the importance of including inorganic C to elucidate their full impact on C sequestration in stream networks.

How to cite: Hallberg, L., Larsen, J., Larsen, A., d’Epagnier, R., Thurnheer, S., Ceperley, N., Schaefli, B., and Dennis, M.: Inorganic carbon unexpected driver of carbon sink response in an established beaver wetland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11362, 2025.

EGU25-11975 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Quantifying the impacts of rewilding on hydrological extremes (floods and droughts) 

Adam Hartley, Gemma Harvey, and Alex Henshaw

Rewilding is a type of Nature-based Solution and has increased in popularity in recent years with rewilding projects rapidly increasing in number across Europe. Different definitions of rewilding have been proposed but it generally refers to large-scale, whole-ecosystem approaches to landscape restoration which can include the reintroduction of missing species. Rewilding has the potential to influence hydrological extremes (floods, droughts), which are expected to intensify with climate change, but the evidence base is limited. To address this gap, this project combines systematic literature review and meta-analysis of published data, an audit of existing publicly available hydrological data for rewilding projects and hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling of rewilding scenarios, calibrated using real-world data from two UK projects.

In this presentation we will share an analysis of published studies that indicates rewilding-driven landscape changes are likely to slow the flow of water through landscapes and attenuate flood peaks. In contrast, research on low flow outcomes is limited and outcomes are more complex. We will also illustrate that existing hydrological monitoring networks in the UK need to be expanded in order to effectively monitor the impact of rewilding projects on hydrological extremes. Preliminary results from modelling rewilding outcomes at UK rewilding projects will also be discussed.

How to cite: Hartley, A., Harvey, G., and Henshaw, A.: Quantifying the impacts of rewilding on hydrological extremes (floods and droughts), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11975, 2025.

EGU25-12732 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Nature-Based Solutions for Reducing Floods and Droughts in Small Rivers 

Elisie Kåresdotter, Amir Rezvani, and Zahra Kalantari

The increasing frequency and intensity of floods and droughts driven by climate change present significant challenges for water management. Small streams, which are crucial for maintaining ecosystem services, biodiversity, and local water management, are especially vulnerable to these changes. Nature-based solutions (NBS), including wetland creation and rewetting, stream meandering, and riparian zone restoration, have shown great potential for mitigating both floods and droughts by enhancing water retention and reducing hydrological connectivity. This case study focuses on Trelleborg, a coastal city in southern Sweden, where several community-driven NBS projects have been implemented to manage its small rivers and streams. By combining qualitative data from expert interviews with quantitative spatial data analysis, this study aims to evaluate the performance of various NBS in Trelleborg's unique environment. Focusing on Trelleborg’s small streams provides a valuable opportunity to understand how localized NBS initiatives can enhance resilience to climate change while delivering multiple co-benefits. The implemented interventions have not only reduced risks associated with hydrological extremes but also contributed to co-benefits such as improved biodiversity and the creation of new recreational areas. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of stakeholder involvement in understanding local socio-economic contexts and diverse perspectives, which is essential for assessing and designing effective NBS projects for future implementation. The findings can inform future NBS initiatives in similar contexts, offering actionable insights into their design, implementation, and performance.

How to cite: Kåresdotter, E., Rezvani, A., and Kalantari, Z.: Nature-Based Solutions for Reducing Floods and Droughts in Small Rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12732, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12732, 2025.

EGU25-12955 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

A Novel Framework for the Assessment of the Nature-based Solutions (NbS) Effectiveness in the Reduction of Hydro-Meteorological Risks 

Luigi Brogno, Francesco Barbano, Laura Sandra Leo, and Silvana Di Sabatino

The identification of suitable and common methods and tools to evaluate the effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) as adaptation measures for hydro-meteorological risks still remains an open challenge. NbS effectiveness is a complex concept whose evaluation needs to take into account also the reduction of the exploitation of both natural and economic resources, the achievement of the implementers’ and stakeholders’ intent at the design phase, and the provision of co-benefits. The following contribution aims to integrate the NBS concept in a novel hydro-meteorological risk framework reported by Brogno et al. (2024) 1. Starting from Crichton’s Risk Triangle, the framework allows the estimate of the risk as the sum of the economic losses and equivalent CO2 emissions resulting from hazardous events that may affect the healthcare system, social relationships, ecosystems, agro-food production, infrastructure safety, and cultural and natural heritage. The final output as a cost per day is a quantitative and pragmatic estimate to facilitate the decision-making process. In addition to presenting the framework, this contribution aims to show practical examples of how the proposed framework can be adopted as a tool for the assessment of NbS effectiveness in hydro-meteorological risk reduction. In particular, bio-geophysical quantities can be used to integrate the contribution of NBS intervention as a local modification of both the hazard characteristics and the predisposition of the exposed elements to be affected by the occurrence of hazardous events. These bio-geophysical quantities need to be directly influenced by NbS and affect in turn the targeted risk processes. The framework can also include the NbS life cycle into the risk assessment, accounting for the greenhouse gas emissions along with the implementation, maintenance, and restoration costs resulting from an NbS intervention. The comparison of the average framework outputs over several hazardous events before and after an NbS intervention can provide an assessment of the long-term NbS effectiveness.

 

1 Brogno, L., Barbano, F., Leo, L. S., Di Sabatino, S., (2024). A novel framework for the assessment of hydro-meteorological risks taking into account nature-based solutions. Environmental Research Letters, 19(7), DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad53e6

How to cite: Brogno, L., Barbano, F., Leo, L. S., and Di Sabatino, S.: A Novel Framework for the Assessment of the Nature-based Solutions (NbS) Effectiveness in the Reduction of Hydro-Meteorological Risks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12955, 2025.

EGU25-15942 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Analyzing variability and possible trends in NDVI for urban water management: A remote-sensing approach for long term monitoring of green infrastructure 

Franziska Sarah Kudaya, Albert König, and Daniela Fuchs-Hanusch

The changing climate creates challenges for green spaces everywhere. A special case is presented by the urban tree, which has several harsh environmental conditions to deal with, i.e. compacted soil, polluted rainwater, etc. Climate adaptation strategies for cities involve the urban tree as a nature-based solution due to its high potential for heat island mitigation and reducing surface runoff. Managing water resources efficiently is receiving more attention with measures including alternative resources for irrigation or incorporating more drought-resistant species, while the effects of changing macro- and micro-climatic conditions on urban trees are only now becoming subject of scientific scrutiny. 

There are several important indicators for evaluating a tree’s living conditions and its water demand at a certain location. One such indicator is the start and end of the growing season. As temperatures rise, plants are seen to have shorter dormancy periods, resulting in earlier flowering and longer growing seasons, increasing both water demand and susceptibility to damage.  

In this study, we compare the growing cycles of urban trees across varying locations in the city of Graz during a period of over 20 years. Tree specific information is taken from the city’s tree register which gives important information about species, age and location of urban trees. Growing cycles are evaluated using a remote sensing approach where NDVI-timeseries are then calculated for the selected areas using openly available satellite imagery to identify changes in dormancy and evaluate a possible trend. The influence of parameters such as location, micro-climate, species and date of planting are investigated using statistical analysis. The generated knowledge is expected to help in the prediction of future urban green irrigation demand and choice of tree species.

How to cite: Kudaya, F. S., König, A., and Fuchs-Hanusch, D.: Analyzing variability and possible trends in NDVI for urban water management: A remote-sensing approach for long term monitoring of green infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15942, 2025.

EGU25-17085 | Posters on site | NH1.7

Sponge function: indicators and metrics to assess water retention in Nature-Based Solutions with application to UK fluvial and agricultural sites 

Alejandro Dussaillant, Neeraj Sah, James Blake, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, and Gareth Old

Climate extremes like floods and droughts pose significant threats to both human communities and natural landscapes. The EU Horizon SpongeScapes and SpongeWorks projects aim to enhance landscape resilience against these hydrometeorological extremes by exploring "landscape sponge functions" – the natural ability of landscapes to absorb, store, and gradually release water. The SpongeScapes project investigates various nature-based solutions (NBS) across diverse European sites with varying climates, geographies, and soil conditions, to address three main questions: (i) what is the longer-term effectiveness of sponge measures (and what indicators/metrics are more adequate); (ii) what is the overall effect of all sponge measures in a catchment (i.e. sponge strategies); (iii) what are the main co-benefits and tradeoffs of sponge measures and strategies.

Here we will present a framework of context-specific 'Sponginess' indicators and metrics, in particular to assess the sponge function of water retention capacity in fluvial and agricultural sponge measures and strategies (catchment-wide combination of measures), with applications to SpongeScapes UK sites in the river Thames basin where work has been done since 2017 and is ongoing. These sites include the Littlestock brook, a headwater catchment in an agricultural landscape where a diversity of nature-based solutions (woody leaky dams, field corner bunds, wet woodland planting) have been implemented, as well as several farms where regenerative agricultural practices (RAPs) have been followed to improve soils, surface and ground water management.

Results on applying our sponge indicators framework will be presented and discussed based on ongoing field investigations, including analyses based on novel low-cost telemetered water level data in the fluvial site, as well as survey data for soil bulk density, water retention functions, infiltration and hydraulic conductivity for the agricultural fields.

How to cite: Dussaillant, A., Sah, N., Blake, J., Rameshwaran, P., and Old, G.: Sponge function: indicators and metrics to assess water retention in Nature-Based Solutions with application to UK fluvial and agricultural sites, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17085, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17085, 2025.

EGU25-17250 | ECS | Posters on site | NH1.7

Finding suitable locations for in-stream wetland creation/restoration: comparing suitability analysis with machine learning approach  

Pamela Maricela Guamán Pintado, Merle Muru, and Evelyn Uuemaa

Wetlands are critical nature-based solutions (NbS) for addressing environmental challenges, playing an important role in sediment and nutrient retention, agricultural runoff mitigation, and carbon storage, contributing to climate change adaptation. However, agricultural intensification and land conversion have drastically reduced wetland coverage globally, necessitating the precise selection of sites for restoration/creation. Depending on fieldwork and expert judgment, traditional methods often struggle to scale effectively, highlighting the need for advanced geospatial techniques.

This study compares two approaches for in-stream wetland site selection, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the machine learning Random Forest (RF) algorithm, within the diverse hydrological landscape of Estonia. Both methods utilized environmental variables, including slope, topographic wetness index (TWI), flow accumulation, soil organic carbon (SOC), and clay content, to evaluate their influence on hydrological and soil conditions critical for determining suitable sites for in-stream wetland creation and restoration. These variables were selected for their ability to capture the key factors that drive wetland formation and functionality. Geospatial datasets, including local and global environmental variables, were processed at 10- and 50-meter resolutions to analyze how spatial resolution influences model performance, providing high-detail insights for localized assessments and broader, regional-scale perspectives.

The AHP framework integrates expert knowledge to prioritize variables, while the RF algorithm provides a data-driven, scalable alternative. The RF model was trained using data from existing wetlands, which were identified based on geospatial datasets and intersected with stream networks, channels, ditches, and rivers to focus on areas directly connected to water flow. Training points were randomly sampled within these wetlands to represent suitable areas. In contrast, points from non-wetland areas, such as forests, shrublands, grasslands, and arable land, were sampled to represent unsuitable areas. This approach ensured that the training data captured the variability of environmental conditions influencing wetland suitability

Validation was conducted using a historical map to evaluate model accuracy and reliability across varying scales and data conditions. Results indicate that the RF algorithm outperformed AHP in predictive performance, achieving an accuracy of approximately 0.8 at broader resolutions and slightly lower accuracy at finer resolutions. This underscores the influence of spatial resolution on model performance. However, AHP underscored the importance of structured decision-making and stakeholder input, ensuring practical applicability. This research advances the integration of NbS into wetland planning, bridging traditional expertise-driven methods and machine learning innovations to enhance precision, scalability, and cost-effectiveness.

How to cite: Guamán Pintado, P. M., Muru, M., and Uuemaa, E.: Finding suitable locations for in-stream wetland creation/restoration: comparing suitability analysis with machine learning approach , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17250, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17250, 2025.

EGU25-17407 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

A coupled mechanistic and in situ data approach to quantify the water retention potential of Nature-Based Solutions 

Katoria Lesaalon Lekarkar, Stefaan Dondeyne, and Ann van Griensven

EGU NH1.7

A coupled mechanistic and in situ data approach to quantify the water retention potential of Nature-Based Solutions

 

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts poses great challenges to water availability and the functioning of natural ecosystems. In response to this, nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional infrastructure. NbS offer multiple benefits, including water retention, improved water quality, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. However, despite the growing recognition of their potential, the hydrological benefits of NbS remain poorly understood. The hydrological effects of NbS, such as water retention and groundwater recharge, are complex and require an integrated understanding of surface and groundwater interactions. However, current models for assessing water retention benefits are either too complex or not specialized to capture the unique features of NbS interventions. As such, the hydrological benefits associated with NbS are not fully understood. Furthermore, long-term in situ data that provides evidence of the benefits of NbS is also lacking. Consequently, the adoption of NbS remains limited due to the lack of clear evidence regarding their effectiveness in mitigating water scarcity.

 

In our study, we address these gaps by developing a simplified hydrological model designed to quantify water retention benefits of reclaimed and rewetted areas in a nature conservation area. The model is based on physically-based hydrological properties, which allow it to represent the fundamental water retention mechanisms of NbS. The model captures the interaction between the catchment area, the water retention zone (the NbS intervention), and the exchange between surface and groundwater. To validate the model and provide robust evidence, we complement the modelling approach with in situ data collected from a network of low-cost soil moisture sensors and groundwater piezometers. The deployment of these sensors allows for extensive monitoring at a relatively low cost, which is crucial for obtaining long-term data on the performance of NbS.

Our study demonstrates that NbS have the potential to mitigate water scarcity by enhancing both surface and groundwater storage, and the findings provide evidence that NbS can contribute to drought adaptation, with the added benefit of providing other ecosystem services. We also conclude that this coupled approach could serve as a useful tool for promoting the wider adoption of NbS in water resource management strategies as a multi-benefit alternative or companion to traditional infrastructure-based solutions.

How to cite: Lekarkar, K. L., Dondeyne, S., and van Griensven, A.: A coupled mechanistic and in situ data approach to quantify the water retention potential of Nature-Based Solutions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17407, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17407, 2025.

EGU25-17756 | Posters on site | NH1.7

Ex-ante evaluation of NbS effectiveness in mitigating water-related hazards at a catchment level 

Andrijana Todorović, Jasna Plavšić, Nataša Manojlović, Kelly Tseng, and Zoran Vojinović

Nature-based solutions (NbS) draw researchers’ attention as they can offer numerous co-benefits to the society and environment, as opposed to the traditional grey infrastructure, while having a potential to offer the same level of protection against water-related hazards, such as floods. Therefore, NbS are deemed a viable option to climate change adaptation. However, proof of their effectiveness in mitigating water-related hazards, especially at a large-scale level (i.e., at a catchment level), are still lacking. Ex-ante assessments, which are needed for initiating NBS projects, heavily rely on the modelling, mainly hydrological and/or hydrodynamical. The effectiveness of NbS is quantified through modelling exercises, by comparing simulated hazard levels simulated with- and without an NbS implemented. However, these assessments of NbS effectiveness are fraught with uncertainties, which primarily stem from the way they are accommodated in the models. Specifically, there are no clear guidelines on inclusion of NbS in the models, and evaluation of their effectiveness.

To learn about modelling of the NbS effects on reducing water-related hazards, a survey was distributed among the RECONECT (http://www.reconect.eu/) participants. The survey contained questions about the NbS and water-related hazards considered, and on the details on the models employed to simulate NbS effects, as well as on the indicators used to gauge NbS effectiveness. In most cases, flood hazard was considered, while the respondents reported various NbS (e.g., retention ponds, flood plain restoration, afforestation and reforestation). The respondents indicated that the NbS were included in the models by (1) changing model parameters (e.g., to represent afforestation or reforestation), (2) by including additional computational elements in the model (e.g., storage-type elements that represent retention ponds), or (3) by changing simulation settings to represent hydraulic structure operation. The way in which NbS are modelled was also dictated by the features of the model used. In some instances, some NbS could not be modelled, since they act at rather small-scale, and their effects could not be captured by a model (e.g., check dams in the headwater parts of a catchment). The respondents reported various indicators, but those related to flood hazard was most frequently reported one. Generally, all respondents agreed that the NbS modelling remains a great challenge, and that specific guidelines are needed.

To facilitate bridging this gap, a new survey on modelling of NbS effectiveness in reducing water-related hazards is launched. The new survey focuses on the “water” aspect of the NbS effectiveness, and delves into specific details on the model development and application. The main goal of this research is to target a wider audience (such as audience at EGU), and facilitate sharing knowledge on modelling of the NbS effects. It is the authors’ firm belief that sharing knowledge on modelling of NbS effectiveness can promote their wider implementation, and aid sustainable mitigation of water-related hazards, and adaptation to climate change.

 

Acknowledgements

This research received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 776866 for the research RECONECT (Regenerating ECOsystems with Nature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion) project.

How to cite: Todorović, A., Plavšić, J., Manojlović, N., Tseng, K., and Vojinović, Z.: Ex-ante evaluation of NbS effectiveness in mitigating water-related hazards at a catchment level, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17756, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17756, 2025.

EGU25-17771 | Orals | NH1.7

The potential of nature-based adaptation solution in municipal wastewater sector: willow planting systems as GHG emission reductants in Latvian villages 

Agrita Briede, Iveta Steinberga, Kristine Ketrina Putnina, Zanda Peneze, and Ivo Vinogradovs

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are known to be important measures that can help reduce climate change effects while providing environmental, social and economic benefits.

This study presents one of the evaluated examples of mitigation and adaptation in the wastewater management sector: the potential of willow (Salix spp.) plantations in different regions of Latvia. They are considered to be cost-effective and highly efficient solutions for recovering nutrients in wastewater and also provide biomass that can be used for energy production.  

The particular study approximated the number of persons in households not connected to centralised wastewater treatment plants or using poor quality biological treatment plants in different regions of Latvia according to Latvia`s National Inventory Report under the UNFCCC Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Latvia from 1990 to 2022. Overall, 24% of private persons discharge inadequately treated domestic wastewater into the environment, accounting for 99.8% of methane emissions in municipal wastewater sector.

It is known that willow plantations are used for wastewater treatment in Denmark, Sweden and southern Finland (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138620), but their use in northern regions may be limited due to climatic conditions, as the efficiency of wastewater treatment decreases at low temperatures. Taking this into account, regions in Latvia where willow plantations would be more effective were initially assessed.  Overall, trends in climate parameters gave reason to believe that the western regions of Latvia are already suitable for the establishment of willow systems.

The IPCC (2006) methodology for calculating GHG emission reduction was used.  Main assumptions used in the evaluation of the implementation of the measures: assumption that all households without appropriate domestic wastewater treatment are connected to the system; assumption that biological treatment plants of adequate quality and efficiency are in place.  The willow system is designed to accumulate as well reduce N & P and their efficiency depends on correct operation. It should be noted that the system requirements depend on the water consumption and pollution load.

The cost of installing such systems in the first year will be the highest, but as the indicative lifetime of the system is 20 years, the long-term average cost could be around €440/tCO2eq. Negative aspects or impacts as shown by studies  are most related to the cost of planning directly for biomass collection (on average 15 minutes mowing per 100 m2) as they should not be overgrown, to the approximately 12 hours of regular annual maintenance and to extreme rainfall events during which water levels have to be monitored.

From an adaptation point of view, there are several known positive aspects of willow planting, such as reducing flood risk. Willow plantations increase evaporation and slow down the spread of water in the floodplain. They also provide several ecosystem services, for example, they attract pollinators, supporting biodiversity, as well as improve the aesthetic value of the territory.

How to cite: Briede, A., Steinberga, I., Putnina, K. K., Peneze, Z., and Vinogradovs, I.: The potential of nature-based adaptation solution in municipal wastewater sector: willow planting systems as GHG emission reductants in Latvian villages, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17771, 2025.

EGU25-17941 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Resilience of stormwater trees to temporary flooding: The case of Acer platanoides ‘Globosum’ 

Hayath Zime Yerima, Didier Techer, and Martin Seidl

High levels of urbanisation, combined with the effects of climate change, are affecting meteorological phenomena, leading to an increase in global urban rainfall anomalies and more flooding. This phenomenon is exacerbated in urban areas by the increasing imperviousness. As a result, flooding is one of the most devastating and widespread natural disasters in the world, affecting regions on all continents. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) have emerged as a practical solution to mimic natural drainage processes and mitigate the adverse effects of flooding while providing other co-benefits. This is the case, for example with stormwater trees, which contribute to the sustainable management of rainwater and surface water runoff by optimising the processes of infiltration, retention and transpiration. However, in the case of extreme rain events or a fast succession of rain events, the soil or substrate surrounding these trees can remain in saturated conditions for longer periods of time, undermining their capacity to provide the ecosystem services needed. In order to evaluate the resistance of urban trees and in particular to better assess/understand the physiological limits of the stormwater trees, soil saturation assays were carried out in 2023 and 2024 on maple trees (Acer platanoides Globosum), a common street tree in European cities. The assays consisted of evaluating the morphological and physiological responses of 3 young maple trees subjected to water saturation of the planting soil during 21 days and comparing them with 3 reference maple trees under normal drainage conditions. At the tree level, the transpiration changes and the trunk pulsations were continuously monitored with sap flow sensors (Implexx Sense) and dendrometers (Ecomatik), respectively. At the leaf leaves level, the physiological responses following prolonged soil saturation conditions were monitored by instantaneous fluorescence-based measurements of leaf pigments and the nitrogen balance index (DUALEX®, Force-A,) as potential stress biomarkers, and leaf stomatal conductance and transpiration (LI-COR). The soil compartment was monitored using continuous soil moisture measurements (Campbell Sci.) and punctual measurements of pore water oxygen level and redox potential (WTW). 

The results showed a rapid fall in soil pore water oxygen level and redox potential, while the physiological effects of saturation were delayed and appeared only after 7 days of soil saturation. The most impacted tree measured parameter was the transpiration rate, followed by leaf ecophysiological traits such as phaeopigments. Remarkably, the prolonged soil saturation profoundly affected tree health, showing effects even after the winter dormant period during the following growing season This questions the extent to which stormwater trees could provide ecosystem services in the future. The presentation will focus on the impact of soil saturation on the various tree parameters measured and propose the definition of a “tolerance threshold” for stormwater trees in the context of runoff management.

How to cite: Zime Yerima, H., Techer, D., and Seidl, M.: Resilience of stormwater trees to temporary flooding: The case of Acer platanoides ‘Globosum’, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17941, 2025.

EGU25-19299 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

The impact of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) on hydrological processes in an agricultural catchment through their representation in a physically-based model 

Cristiane Fragata dos Santos, Andreja Jonoski, Ioana Popescu, Kwankamol Chittrakul, and Bruno Samain

Traditional water management practices, largely based on hard engineered infrastructure and highly optimized systems, are proving insufficient for adapting to the complex interplay of future climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions. The increased frequency and magnitude of hydrological hazards in Europe, such as the multi-year drought during the period 2018-2020 and the subsequent summer flood that hit Central Europe in July 2021, have underscored the need for integrated water management. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) offer a promising alternative or complement to grey infrastructure by leveraging natural processes and ecosystem services to simultaneously mitigate flood and drought risks. Unlike traditional water management, which has a well-developed knowledge base and specialized modelling tools to represent structural measures (e.g., dikes, dams) as well as guidelines to assess their performance, knowledge on NbS representation, functioning and their impacts on catchment hydrology over time is still limited. The simulation of NbS requires modellers to identify relevant hydrological processes involved in their functioning and find reliable ways to represent them based on the capabilities and limitations of selected physically-based models and available data. Agricultural catchments, while highly vulnerable to shifts in climate due to their dependence on natural climate-sensitive resources, offer significant opportunities for implementing nature-based strategies such as wetland restoration, tree planting and infiltration ponds. This study analyses the impact of NbS representation on the hydrological processes related to both floods and droughts in one middle-sized agricultural catchment under temperate climate: the Handzamevaart catchment (Belgium). Using MIKE SHE, a fully distributed hydrological model, coupled with MIKE 11, a 1D hydraulic river model, we explore a wide range of parameters to represent different types of NbS. Changes in the total water balance and in the individual hydrological processes and variables related to discharge, overland flow, evapotranspiration, infiltration, and groundwater fluxes obtained as a result of the different NbS representation will be assessed at catchment scale, but also locally - immediately upstream and downstream of the modelled measures. This study can serve to build the foundational knowledge required for the representation of NbS in physical models, anticipating process understanding for designing flood and drought mitigation strategies. Key outputs include an evaluation of model robustness to NbS representation, identification of the most influential parameters in the representation of different types of NbS, and thereby guidance for empirical data collection to improve NbS representation in future studies.

Research is supported by the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme: the “FUTURAL project” (Grant No. 101083958).

How to cite: Fragata dos Santos, C., Jonoski, A., Popescu, I., Chittrakul, K., and Samain, B.: The impact of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) on hydrological processes in an agricultural catchment through their representation in a physically-based model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19299, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19299, 2025.

EGU25-19479 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

LiDAR for Green Infrastructure: monitoring vertical greening with wooden support structures 

Anna Briefer, Andreas Tockner, and Rosemarie Stangl

Green infrastructures (GI) are key elements in urban areas for heat mitigation, carbon capture and providing of aesthetic reasons. However, there is currently limited knowledge about the effects of various plant compositions, arrangements and varying density of plant cover, because traditional measuring methods are expensive / labour-intensive, imprecise, and tall buildings pose accessibility challenges. The presented study proposes applying LiDAR measurements on GI to gain in-depth understanding of plant growth, inventory of vegetation cover and thereby providing a useful tool for sustainable urban hazard management.

The use of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) technology has revolutionised forest monitoring by offering precise, efficient, and highly detailed spatial data for creating comprehensive 3D reconstructions of forest structures. The ability to capture fine details on both vegetation and structural surfaces is particularly advantageous for studying complex, vertical environments such as green façades. This study used static ground-based LiDAR (RIEGL VZ-600i) to capture the 3D structure of a vertical greenery with wooden support structures before and after harvesting. Defined squares of 1 m² were fully harvested, the biomass collected and dry weight was obtained. Reference measurements for vegetation height (distance from wall to the outermost part of the plant) were recorded on a grid for 40 measurement points. The reference measurements were related to LiDAR alpha-hull volumetric analysis and predictions of growing biomass could be derived.

By integrating point cloud analysis developed for forest monitoring into urban contexts, LiDAR facilitates a holistic analysis of natural and built environments. By analysis of LiDAR intensity and mapping further reference measurements for plant vitality and structural integrity, green wall health can be evaluated. Already established practices like alpha-hulling provide a successful tool to document green façades comprehensively. Combining LiDAR with traditional measures enhances our understanding of the interactions between vegetation and architectural surfaces, enabling improved design and maintenance of GI and NBS to enable better planning and maintaining of NBS to reduce the effect of urban heat islands. 

How to cite: Briefer, A., Tockner, A., and Stangl, R.: LiDAR for Green Infrastructure: monitoring vertical greening with wooden support structures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19479, 2025.

EGU25-20000 | ECS | Orals | NH1.7

Constructed Wetlands as Nature-Based Solutions: Resilience to Acid Rock Drainage and climatic seasonality in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru 

Vladimir León Menacho, Kiara Aguirre Falcón, Roy Pacchioni Carranza, Maximiliano Loarte Rubina, Carmen Hernández Crespo, Enrique Asensi Dasi, and Miguel Martín Monerris

Glacial retreat, accelerated by climate change, exposes rocks rich in metallic sulphides such as pyrite (FeS2) to geochemical weathering processes, resulting in Acid Rock Drainage (ARD) which releases H+, Fe, SO4-2 and trace metals that impact water bodies and ecosystems. This phenomenon has been evidenced in the Cordillera Blanca, where climatic seasonality is characterized by 2 periods, rainy and dry. In this context, Constructed Wetlands (CWs) emerge as Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) designed to mitigate effects of ARD. Although CWs have been extensively studied in acid mine drainages, their performance under seasonal and variable climatic conditions in glacial environments requires research.

In Recuay - Ancash, water quality of Negro river impacted by ARD which feeds a CW at ARD Pilot Treatment Plant was evaluated for 6 months every 2 weeks (rainy and dry periods) by taking in situ measurements and determining acidity, sulphates and heavy metals. In addition, modelling was carried out with different loads applied to size and determine average CW efficiencies.

Results of water quality in the river show higher concentrations in dry period compared to rainy period, where pH: 3.15±0.1 - 3.42±0.1, EC: 489.6±103.0 - 252.0±160.2 µS.cm-1, TDS: 275.5±63.4 - 121.0±78.4, SO4-2: 151.1±27.6 - 92.7±38.6, Fe: 16.8±2.3 - 8.5±3.6, Al: 3.5±0.3 - 2.2±0.7, Ni: 0.07±0.01 - 0.04 ± 0.02, Zn: 0.17±0.02 - 0.11±0.05, Mn: 0.79±0.09 - 0.48±0.20, Mg: 11.8±1.8 - 6.5±2.4, Ca: 17.8±2.2 - 11.5±4.5, Si: 4.3±0.4 - 3.5±0.5 and Na: 2.65±0.36 - 2.00±0.49 in mg.L-1. Cd, Fe, Mn, Al, Co, Zn, Mg, Si, Sr, Be, Ca and Na showed significant statistical differences (p<0.05) between periods.

Concentration in the CW effluent is: pH: 6.4±0.2 - 6.3±0.1, EC: 234.3±17.8 - 146.9±55.2 µS.cm-1, TDS: 130.2±33.5 - 70.1±26.7, SO4-2: 107.1±23.9 - 72.1±36.2, Fe: 1.3±0.3 - 1.1±0.6, Al: 0.05±0.01 - 0.06±0.01, Ni: 0.004±0.009 - 0.001±0.0, Zn: 0.005±0. 004 - 0.003±0.0, Mn: 1.12±0.11 - 0.83±0.38, Mg: 11.2±2.9 - 8.1±3.3, Ca: 32.7±5.5 - 19.6±11.2, Si: 6.5±0.6 - 5.7±0.8 and Na: 2.76±0.28 - 2.06±0.61 in mg.L-1 showing that there aren’t significant differences (p<0.05) between periods except for Si and Ca. Modelling results with 2 hydraulic operating loads (0.105 and 0.158 m.d-1) and residence times (0.079 and 0.118 d) at constant flow suggest that the CW is robust regardless of the hydraulic load. Maximum applied loads were 16.5, 26.9, 3.7, 0.7, 0.015 and 0.047 g.m-2.d-1 with average efficiencies of 50.4, 49.9, 90.6, 96.9, 97.9 and 98.9 % for acidity, SO4-2, Fe, Al, Ni and Zn, respectively. However, negative efficiencies were observed, primarily for  Mn, Mg, Ca, Si and Na due to anaerobic processes and CW substrate and metal chemistry. In this context, CWs have proven to be a resilient and adaptable solution to climatic seasonality.

How to cite: León Menacho, V., Aguirre Falcón, K., Pacchioni Carranza, R., Loarte Rubina, M., Hernández Crespo, C., Asensi Dasi, E., and Martín Monerris, M.: Constructed Wetlands as Nature-Based Solutions: Resilience to Acid Rock Drainage and climatic seasonality in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20000, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20000, 2025.

EGU25-20690 | Orals | NH1.7

Mainstreaming NbS: Experiences from the INTERREG ResiRiver initiative. 

Ralph Schielen, Geert van der Meulen, Stanford Wilson, Boris Bakker, and Yvo Snoek

Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) integrate natural processes to address societal challenges, such as climate change, disaster risk, and biodiversity loss. Mainstreaming NbS involves incorporating these approaches into policies, planning, and decision-making across sectors like urban development, agriculture, and infrastructure. Key elements include upscaling, cross-sectoral collaboration, capacity building, financing mechanisms, and robust monitoring. However, the mainstreaming process faces challenges, including limited awareness, fragmented governance, and a lack of comprehensive data on the effectiveness of NbS. Overcoming these barriers requires coordinated efforts across sectors and stakeholders to scale up NbS and ensure their integration into long-term sustainability frameworks. ResiRiver is a transnational project focused on resilience enhancement in river systems in North-West Europe through mainstreaming and upscaling NbS. By means of a range of project partners working on NbS in pilot sites, mainstreaming theory is tested in practice. This results in identification of diverse mainstreaming activities and objectives, creating opportunities to develop support for NbS mainstreaming tailored to pilots and organizational capacities to overcome mainstreaming challenges.

How to cite: Schielen, R., van der Meulen, G., Wilson, S., Bakker, B., and Snoek, Y.: Mainstreaming NbS: Experiences from the INTERREG ResiRiver initiative., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20690, 2025.

EGU25-1348 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.16

Adaptive Deep Learning Framework for Rapid Landslide Mapping Using HR-GLDD 

Saurabh Singh, Ashwani Raju, and Sansar Raj Meena

The Himalayan terrain has encountered multiple vandalized events that have hampered humans and property. While significant progress has been made in leveraging Earth Observation data for landslide mapping, several critical challenges remain in creating models that can be operational globally. The first limitation is that no high-resolution, globally distributed, and event-diverse dataset is available for landslide segmentation. Inadequacy in data impairs the ability of machine learning models to achieve accurate and robust detection over different terrains since insufficient representation of both landslide and non-landslide classes leads to suboptimal generalization. We provide the High-Resolution Global Landslide Detector Database (HR-GLDD) to fill this critical gap. The unprecedented dataset, derived from PlanetScope imagery with an extraordinary 3-meter pixel resolution, includes a detailed set of landslide instances, including those from the Kalimpong Himalayas in Northeast India, providing never-before-attempted granularity and diversity for global landslide modeling.

The HR-GLDD contains ten independent landslide events, five rainfall-triggered and five seismic, under diverse geomorphological and topographical conditions. Standardized image patches from high-resolution PlanetScope optical satellite imagery in four-spectral-band (red, green, blue, near-infrared) combinations of bands and binary masks delineating landslides are provided. One of the first datasets prepared for landslide research using high-resolution images in artificial intelligence for landslide detection and identification studies is particularly relevant using HR-GLDD.

 

Five state-of-the-art deep learning models were utilized to validate its usefulness by showing stable performance at Kalimpong, verifying the dataset's robustness and transferability. HR-GLDD is publicly available and valuable for calibrating and building models to produce reliable landslide inventories after an event. The constant updating of data from recent landslide events significantly increases its usefulness in developing landslide research and risk assessment.                                                                

How to cite: Singh, S., Raju, A., and Meena, S. R.: Adaptive Deep Learning Framework for Rapid Landslide Mapping Using HR-GLDD, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1348, 2025.

EGU25-1478 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Earthquake-Induced Landslide Detection in Remote Sensing Images Using TLSTMF-YOLO 

Shaoqiang Meng, Zhenming Shi, Ming Peng, and Thomas Glade

The earthquake-induced landslide targets in remote sensing images vary greatly in size and are unevenly distributed with many small targets. Achieving a balance between high accuracy, computational capability, and small sample size remains challenging. This study proposes to enhance earthquake-induced landslide detection by developing a new algorithm for remote sensing images based on the C3-Swin-Transformer and Multiscale Feature Fusion-YOLO (TLSTMF-YOLO). Utilizing a feature extraction layer and Swin-Transformer structure captures dependencies and preserves spatial information. Introducing the Convolutional Block Attention Module (CBAM) enhances feature representation. Incorporating a Bidirectional Feature Pyramid Network (BiFPN) optimizes bidirectional cross-scale feature fusion, improving landslide detection accuracy across scales. The training utilizes an AdamW optimizer and cosine learning rate strategy for accelerated convergence and improved speed. Transfer learning applies to Jiuzhaigou and Luding landslide datasets. Experimental results show that the TLSTMF-YOLO model outperforms YOLOv5 and other detection models in terms of precision, recall, and mAP@0.5. Specifically, on the Jiuzhaigou dataset, it achieves a precision of 95.7%, a recall of 89.9%, and a mAP@0.5 of 90.5%. On the Luding dataset, it achieves a precision of 96.0%, a recall of 90.9%, and a mAP@0.5 of 94.5%. Additionally, the frame processing times for the TLSTMF-YOLO model are 6.61 ms and 12.2 ms on the Jiuzhaigou and Luding datasets, respectively, demonstrating superior efficiency and confirming its effective feature extraction and fusion capabilities.

How to cite: Meng, S., Shi, Z., Peng, M., and Glade, T.: Earthquake-Induced Landslide Detection in Remote Sensing Images Using TLSTMF-YOLO, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1478, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1478, 2025.

EGU25-2183 | Orals | NH3.16

Relating regional acceleration events to hydroclimatic inputs for slow-moving deep-seated landslides in Western Canada 

Corey Froese, Michael Porter, Zac Sala, Evelyn Moorhouse, Vinenzo Coia, Arnaud Michel, and Patrick Grover

Deep-seated landslides in colluvium derived from glacial sediments and shales blanket river valley slopes in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and are traversed by linear infrastructure and urban development. Porter et al (2019) estimated that the infrastructure maintenance and damage costs are in the order of $ 400 million (CDN) annually. In the spring of 2020, widespread accelerations of landslides in the northern portions of the WCSB led to the initiation of a multi-year study to better understand the relationships between short and longer-term hydroclimatic trends in relation to historical landslide activity.   

Data from over 550 subsurface monitoring points (slope inclinometers and shape accelerometer arrays) were collected for over 100 slopes between the early 1980’s to present. A multi-stage cleaning process was necessary to minimize errors (installation, human, sensor) so that readings represent measurements of deep-seated landslide movement and reliably constrain discrete acceleration events.     The concept of a “landslide year” was developed to delineate the annual movement cycle for landslides in the region and was defined as the period that starts in the spring when snowmelt infiltrates into the ground and finishes which the ground freezes in the autumn. Only displacement values that reliably constrained the landslide year were maintained in the database and, for sites with at least three years of readings, these values at each monitoring location were normalized against all of the readings for that site.  This allowed for a more consistent comparison of the magnitude of displacements across sites and the region.

In parallel, historical hydroclimatic variables obtained from the ECWMF ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset (Muñoz-Sabater et al., 2021) were accessed, analyzed and reviewed. As with the displacement data, different approaches were assessed to provide normalized values that could represent “extreme” events and trends in the hydroclimate that could be compared across the region. The variables assessed focused on the antecedent soil moisture and the total water introduced during the landslide year from both snow melt and precipitation. These values, both absolute and normalized, allowed for both spatial and temporal analyses and data visualizations.

Random forest models were used  to establish the relative importance of different hydroclimatic inputs in predicting normalized annual landslide displacements. The hydroclimatic variables seen as the most important and most useful for application in an early warning system were then evaluated in terms of their site-level “predictive power” when compared against the normalized displacement data. The test variables utilized were normalized Layer 4 soil moisture at the start of the landslide year, normalized Layer 4 soil moisture trend at the start of the landslide year and maximum normalized 60-day total water inputs within the landslide year.   These tests yielded positive results in terms of correlation between combinations of the chosen hydroclimatic inputs and landslide displacement trends. Further development and testing of hydroclimate thresholds as a basis for a regional landslide awareness and early warning system is in progress.

 

 

How to cite: Froese, C., Porter, M., Sala, Z., Moorhouse, E., Coia, V., Michel, A., and Grover, P.: Relating regional acceleration events to hydroclimatic inputs for slow-moving deep-seated landslides in Western Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2183, 2025.

Landslides are complex geohazards often driven by hydro-meteorological factors. Climate change is amplifying these drivers, potentially increasing landslide frequency and intensity. Addressing these challenges requires robust tools capable of capturing the dynamic interactions between hydro-mechanical processes. While physics-based models provide valuable insights, their reliance on simplifying assumptions limits their ability to fully represent these intricate systems. In contrast, deep learning techniques excel at uncovering non-linear interdependencies, making them well-suited for landslide modeling.

This study employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to forecast landslide displacements at the Ripley Landslide in British Columbia, Canada. Ripley is a translational landslide of significant geotechnical and environmental interest, primarily impacting major railway corridors and local river biodiversity. The landslide’s movements are influenced by a pre-sheared clay seam with residual friction angles of 9–16 degrees, as well as toe erosion and drawdown effects from the Thompson River during late spring.

Three GPS stations have monitored Ripley’s displacements since April 2008, consistently showing similar magnitudes and directions of movement. Data from one station were used to train the LSTM model, with river flow as the primary input. Synthetic noise levels were introduced into the data to evaluate model robustness, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of different training datasets on displacement forecasts. Additional inputs, including temperature and precipitation, were incorporated to assess their contributions to model performance. Shapley values were employed to quantify the influence of each input variable, enhancing the explainability of the model that is typically obscured by the convoluted structure of neural networks.

This work demonstrates the potential of deep learning techniques to advance situational awareness and forecasting of landslide activity by leveraging hydro-meteorological drivers. The findings contribute to the development of data-driven approaches for landslide early warning systems and hazard mitigation strategies on a regional scale, as there are 11 other landslides in the valley within a 10-km distance that share similar surficial geology and exposure to hydro-meteorological drivers.

How to cite: Sharifi, S., Macciotta, R., and Hendry, M.: Exploring Hydro-Meteorological Drivers of Landslide Displacement: A Time-Series Forecasting Approach Using LSTM at Ripley in British Columbia, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2579, 2025.

In recent years, climate change has led to a rise in extreme rainfall events globally, including coastal typhoon rainfall, inland heavy rain, and prolonged rainy seasons, which in turn trigger numerous rainfall-induced hazards, becoming an increasingly severe social issue worldwide. Real-time spatial prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can quickly forecast the locations of large-scale landslides after intense typhoon rainfall. Therefore, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is crucial within the first 72 hours following a typhoon event. Building hazard warning models based on meteorological factors is an important method for hazard prevention and mitigation. Traditional meteorological warning methods typically rely on rainfall threshold models, focusing solely on rainfall amounts and neglecting other important meteorological factors such as surface runoff and soil moisture. However, meteorological factors, topography, and geological environment data are diverse and complex, constituting typical multimodal data. Extracting precursor features of landslides from this data remains a significant challenge. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and deep learning, multimodal feature extraction and fusion techniques are increasingly applied in disaster warning. Taking typhoon Rainfall-Induced landslide events from 2019 to 2023 in Lin'an District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, combined with Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) half-hour precipitation data, this study employs the deep learning model 3ED-ConvLSTM. It uses multimodal feature extraction through three encoders to extract features of landslide-inducing factors (such as meteorological factors, topography, and geological environment) and builds a meteorological warning model to achieve real-time spatial prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. At the same time, an interpretable module based on the self-attention mechanism is constructed to reveal the significant contributions of each influencing factor to the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides. The goal of this study is to improve the temporal and spatial accuracy of rainfall-induced landslide early warnings, reduce the frequency of warnings, lower false positive and false negative rates, and ultimately enhance the effectiveness and accuracy of disaster prevention and mitigation.

How to cite: Zhao, Y. and Chen, L.: Real-time Typhoon Rainfall-Induced Landslide Meteorological Early Warning Modeling Based on Multimodal Data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2665, 2025.

EGU25-4168 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

 Integration of InSAR data with Multi-Temporal Inventories for Potential Landslide Hazard Mapping in Belluno Province (Veneto Region, NE, Italy). 

Rajeshwari Bhookya, Silvia Puliero, Mario Floris, and Sansar Raj Meena

Landslides represent a significant geological hazard, particularly in mountainous regions where ground deformations can lead to devastating impacts on infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. The Belluno Province, situated in the Veneto region of northeastern Italy, is characterized by its complex topography and geological features, rendering it particularly susceptible to landslide occurrences. To mitigate the risks associated with these natural phenomena, effective hazards mapping is essential. This study explores the integration of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data with multi-temporal inventories to enhance the accuracy and reliability of landslide hazard assessments in this region. By leveraging advanced remote sensing techniques alongside landslide data, this research aims to provide a comprehensive spatial analysis that identifies areas at risk and contributes to informed decision-making in land management and disaster mitigation. To this end, considering slope units, the landslide data delineated using orthophotos retrieved from WMS and WMTS services provided by the Italian national portal, covering the period from 1989 to 2021, were analyzed. The analysis focused on the Cordevole and Alpago regions, located in the Belluno province of the northeastern Italian Alps. These areas were affected by two extreme meteorological events with a return period of over 100 years: the first, a windstorm named VAIA, occurred from October 27th to 30th, 2018, and caused significant damage to the forest cover. The second event took place from December 4th to 6th, 2020, also impacting the region. The findings of this integration not only hold implications for local stakeholders but also enhance the broader understanding of landslide dynamics in similar geological contexts.

Acknowledgement:

This study was carried out within the PNRR research activities of the consortium iNEST (Interconnected North-Est Innovation Ecosystem) funded by the European Union Next-Generation EU (Piano Nazionale diRipresa e Resilienza (PNRR) – Missione 4 Componente 2, Investimento 1.5 – D.D. 1058 23/06/2022, ECS_00000043). This manuscript reflects only the Authors’ views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

How to cite: Bhookya, R., Puliero, S., Floris, M., and Meena, S. R.:  Integration of InSAR data with Multi-Temporal Inventories for Potential Landslide Hazard Mapping in Belluno Province (Veneto Region, NE, Italy)., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4168, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4168, 2025.

EGU25-4613 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.16

Investigation and Characterization of Landslides in Volcanic Soils Triggered by Rainfall in West Bandung, Indonesia 

Misbahudin Misbahudin and Christian Zangerl

The volcanic area in Indonesia is geologically characterized by the presence of pyroclastic products, which are prone to intense weathering and thus susceptible to different types of landslides. Combined with adverse weather conditions related to the tropic climate, landslide activity is generally high in volcanic soils, leading in the past to numerous events in the Cipongkor District, West Bandung, in Indonesia. On March 28th, 2024, a landslide affected a densely populated settlement area, destroying some houses and impacting the provincial road crossing the landslide area.

This research investigates the geological, geomechanical and hydrogeological characteristics of the slides and proves the influence of precipitation on the initial formation process. The applied methods are manifold and comprise UAV-based aerial mapping supported by geomorphological-geological field observations, geotechnical drilling including core sampling, geomechanical properties examination, analyses of meteorological data, and numerical modeling. The geometry and volume of the landslide were determined by UAV and field mapping by reconstructing the pre-failure topography. The lithostratigraphic data obtained from the borehole are improved by resistivity (ERT) measurements, in order to build a geological subsurface model of the slide. Based on this and considering hydrogeological and geomechanical data numerical modeling is applied to simulate the initiation of the slide by applying a transient approach which is able to study precipitation data, pore pressure changes and slope failure.

Preliminary results show that the stratification of ash tuff and lapilli layers, with their variation of weathering may provide a disposition factor for the formation of the slide. Data from the nearest local meteorological station show that cumulative precipitation in the research area during the rainy season (October 2023 to March 2024) was 1230 mm. Furthermore, in the 3 consecutive days before the slide event precipitation reached 95 mm, suggesting that heavy precipitation may have acted as a trigger that caused the failure event of this first-time slide.

How to cite: Misbahudin, M. and Zangerl, C.: Investigation and Characterization of Landslides in Volcanic Soils Triggered by Rainfall in West Bandung, Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4613, 2025.

EGU25-6125 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.16

Federated Learning-Based Approach for Landslide Forecasting in Taiwan 

Po-Wu Cheng and Wen-Ping Tsai

Landslides pose significant risks, often causing severe property damage and, in extreme cases, loss of life due to poorly timed evacuations. Accurate forecasting is, therefore, essential. Traditional landslide studies rely heavily on satellite imagery to analyze timing and impact, often using machine learning models to process these images or predict landslides based on relevant factors. However, the lack of sufficient data significantly compromises forecasting accuracy in data-scarce regions such as remote mountainous areas or highways. Federated learning, a cutting-edge machine learning paradigm, offers a promising solution by aggregating model parameters from decentralized edge models operating in different regions. This approach allows a central model to leverage diverse, region-specific data without requiring direct data sharing, resulting in a more robust and generalized predictive capability. The framework supports edge models that process localized data varying in both temporal and volumetric dimensions, while a carefully designed parameter aggregation mechanism ensures iterative improvement of the central model. Experimental results demonstrate that federated learning enhances forecasting performance and improves accuracy, particularly in regions with limited data availability, marking a significant step forward in landslide forecasting.

How to cite: Cheng, P.-W. and Tsai, W.-P.: Federated Learning-Based Approach for Landslide Forecasting in Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6125, 2025.

EGU25-6971 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Rapid Landslide Mapping During the 2023 Emilia-Romagna Disaster: Assessing Automated Approaches with Limited Training Data for Emergency Response 

Nicola Dal Seno, Giuseppe Ciccarese, Davide Evangelista, Elena Piccolomini, and Matteo Berti

The catastrophic rainfall events of May 2023 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, triggered over 80,000 landslides and widespread flooding, presenting unprecedented challenges for emergency response and disaster management. This study evaluates the potential of automated landslide mapping using deep learning models, specifically U-Net and SegFormer, to address these challenges in scenarios with limited training data and time constraints. The research focuses on four severely affected municipalities—Casola Valsenio, Predappio, Modigliana, and Brisighella—leveraging a unique approach where training was conducted exclusively on one municipality (Casola Valsenio) and applied to the others.

The study assesses the performance of these models across varied geological and environmental contexts, examining the impact of input data configurations, including pre- and post-event imagery, slope, and NDVI change maps derived from high-resolution aerial and Sentinel-2 satellite data. While both models achieved notable accuracy, SegFormer demonstrated greater resilience in handling complex geological conditions. Despite challenges like false positives in agricultural fields and along river margins, the models effectively reduced the time required for initial mapping, providing a critical starting point for manual refinement.

Quantitative metrics, such as F1 score and Intersection over Union (IoU), were complemented by expert qualitative evaluations, ensuring a comprehensive assessment of the models’ practical applicability. Results reveal that automated mapping, though not a replacement for manual methods, can significantly expedite the production of high-quality landslide maps, critical for immediate disaster response. By automating the initial detection and delineation processes, these methods can save weeks of work, allowing responders to focus on refining outputs and addressing urgent needs.

This research underscores the feasibility of integrating machine learning models into emergency workflows, bridging the gap between academic advancements and practical applications. Automated mapping offers a scalable, efficient, and reliable solution for rapid disaster response, particularly in large-scale emergencies, providing a foundation for future innovations in geohazard management.

How to cite: Dal Seno, N., Ciccarese, G., Evangelista, D., Piccolomini, E., and Berti, M.: Rapid Landslide Mapping During the 2023 Emilia-Romagna Disaster: Assessing Automated Approaches with Limited Training Data for Emergency Response, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6971, 2025.

Landslides are one of the most serious natural disasters, causing many deaths and damage to infrastructure. In developing countries with rapidly growing cities, having accurate landslide susceptibility maps (LSM) is crucial for predicting landslides and minimizing risks. These maps play a key role in effective disaster management and mitigation strategies. While the development of advanced machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost has significantly improved LSM accuracy, their complexity and "black box" nature make them challenging to interpret. This study uses SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) as an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach to enhance the interpretability of these ensemble models in an arid region in East Cairo, Egypt. A total of 183 landslides were identified using field surveys and satellite imagery, with 70% of the data allocated for training and 30% for validation. Fourteen predictor variables were incorporated from different categories. Both RF and XGBoost were used to create LSM, and their accuracy was compared to evaluate the most effective model. SHAP values provided a detailed evaluation of the contribution of each variable to landslide susceptibility, offering insights into the models' decision-making processes and identifying the most influential features. The results proved that SHAP not only improved the transparency of complex models but also facilitated the identification of key factors driving susceptibility, resulting in a more efficient and interpretable LSM framework. Models trained with SHAP-informed feature selection achieved high performance, with an AUC of up to 0.96. This study highlights the dual potential of explainable AI in addressing the complexity of modern machine learning models and improving their practical applicability in landslide hazard assessments.

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility, Explainable AI, Random Forest, XGBoost, Arid regions

How to cite: Abdelkader, M. and Csámer, Á.: Improving Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Explainable AI: Enhancing Prediction and Interpretability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7584, 2025.

EGU25-8086 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Modelling catchment susceptibility to alpine mass movements 

Sophia Demmel and Peter Molnar

Gravitational mass movements in alpine regions, such as landslides, debris flows and rockfall, are driven by complex physical processes. While the translation and runout of these events can be reasonably well modelled once they occur, the predisposing and triggering mechanisms leading to failure are very challenging to assess. This is particularly demanding for practitioners who need to take decisions on the ground to ensure the safety of the population. There is potential to improve the situation by using a variety of new space-time climate and land surface datasets to describe the hydrogeomorphic system state and relate it to possible failure by confronting it with past observed events. In this work we focus on the local susceptibility to the initiation of mass wasting events (shallow landslides, debris flows and rockfall) in low- and subalpine regions by exploring the predictive power of various hydro-meteorological drivers related to rainfall, snowmelt, high soil moisture, freezing, etc.

To provide spatially and temporally consistent information, we model all hydro-meteorological drivers governing the hydrogeomorphic catchment state of the Alpine Rhine (GR, Switzerland) over the period 1998-2022 based on globally available soil information (SoilGrids) as well as national climate (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss), snow (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) and terrain data (Federal Office of Topography Swisstopo). The temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis is daily over a 1x1km grid. We determine the seasonally varying contribution of each driver to the triggering of each individual mass movement type utilizing the concept of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and its area under the curve (AUC) as performance metrics. The underlying events recorded in the Swiss natural hazard database comprise 459 shallow landslides, 295 debris flows and 761 rockfalls (StorMe, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment FOEN) in the study period. The best-performing hydro-meteorological drivers then serve as input to predict the occurrence of mass wasting events with data driven models. We test both a traditional statistical approach and machine learning algorithms to compare their capability of modelling the susceptibility to alpine mass movements.

Compared to a purely rainfall-based prediction of landslide or debris flow activity, which is commonly done in the literature, this approach benefits from the availability of further spatially distributed climate variables and terrain characteristics. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of catchment state on predisposing and triggering conditions of alpine mass movements, and illustrate also the limits of predictability for such events due to the inherent randomness in the triggering processes.

How to cite: Demmel, S. and Molnar, P.: Modelling catchment susceptibility to alpine mass movements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8086, 2025.

EGU25-9819 | Orals | NH3.16 | Highlight

Data-driven modeling of mass movement damage potential across the Alpine Space: A step toward impact-based early warning 

Stefan Steger, Raphael Spiekermann, Sebastian Lehner, Katharina Enigl, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, and Matthias Schlögl

European weather services are currently transitioning from traditional weather warnings to impact-based warnings (i.e., from "what the weather will be" to "what it will do"). To inform on what impacts can be expected, meteorological data must be integrated with data on potential hazards and elements at risk.

In this study, we developed three impact models on a daily scale to predict the impact of mass movement across the entire Alpine region (450,000 km²). The models focused on three major process classes (slide-types, flow-types, and fall-types) that impact infrastructure, such as buildings and roads. The study area was first divided into ~18,000 sub-basins, with potential process areas (PPAs) delineated in each basin using the angle of reach principle and random walk routing. PPAs enabled a tailored preparation of data describing environmental drivers (e.g., morphometry, land cover, lithology), dynamic meteorological data (e.g., antecedent precipitation, short-term precipitation, temperature effects), and exposure (e.g., number/density of buildings/roads within the PPA). The impact data consisted of precipitation-induced mass movements in Austria and northern Italy, covering more than 3600 basins. This training area was considered sufficiently representative of diverse Alpine environmental conditions to allow for spatial model transferability. Additional steps involving data sampling and the reclassification of predictor variables further supported the extension of model predictions beyond the training area. For example, lithology and land cover data was reclassified to ensure that each unit within the Alpine Space was adequately represented in the training data.

Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) with automated variable selection were used to link binary impact data to driving factors. Rigorous evaluations, including cross-validation and feature importance assessments, showed high predictive performance (e.g., AUROCs > 0.8) and plausible relationships between drivers and impacts. For example, impact probabilities for slide-types were modeled to be highest when intense short-term precipitation followed high antecedent rainfall, particularly in drier regions that are less "adapted" to such events. Further, a higher number/density of buildings or roads within PPAs also increased impact likelihood, while effects related to morphology, temperature, lithology, land cover, and seasonality further supported model plausibility. The applicability of the model is presented from three perspectives: (i) "What-if" scenarios to explore how hypothetical changes in drivers (e.g., precipitation) affect impact probabilities; (ii) hindcasting to validate model predictions for past events and demonstrate potential for impact-based early warning; and (iii) trend analysis, using ~6,000 daily hindcasts (2005–2021) to reveal spatio-temporal trends through the lens of climate change.

The research leading to these results has received funding from Interreg Alpine Space Program 2021-27 under the project number ASP0100101, “How to adapt to changing weather eXtremes and associated compound and cascading RISKs in the context of Climate Change” (X-RISK-CC).

How to cite: Steger, S., Spiekermann, R., Lehner, S., Enigl, K., Moreno, M., Crespi, A., and Schlögl, M.: Data-driven modeling of mass movement damage potential across the Alpine Space: A step toward impact-based early warning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9819, 2025.

In recent years, deep learning models have been used for automated landslide mapping. However, such models often underperform when encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) data (regions or terrain characteristics that are significantly different from those seen during training). To address this issue, we present an automated application powered by Google Earth Engine that constructs hyperlocal machine learning models tailored to specific areas of interest. By defining a limited spatial extent and providing labels specific to the area, our approach mitigates the risk of encountering OOD data, reducing incorrect predictions. The application supports the export of annotated landslide data in both raster and vector formats, enabling users to validate and refine landslide extent. These new high-quality datasets can be incorporated back into existing deep learning models to improve generalizability. With its speed, accuracy, and user-friendly interface, the proposed app aims to facilitate the development of robust landslide identification models, especially in scenarios where data scarcity or geographic diversity poses significant challenges.

How to cite: sharma, N. and saharia, M.: Mitigating Out-of-Distribution Challenges in Landslide Mapping through a Hyperlocal Machine Learning model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10302, 2025.

Taiwan, situated at the junction of the Ryukyu Arc and the Philippine Arc, is prone to frequent seismic activities due to its position at the boundary of tectonic plates. Earthquake-induced landslides, therefore, are one of the most common geological hazards. For disaster mitigation, it is crucial to accurately predict the spatial distribution of such landslides after earthquake occurrence. This study revolves around assessing the landslide risks triggered by the April 3rd, 2024, Hualien earthquake, which caused tremendous damage and claimed 18 lives, using multiple machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). However, Logistic Regression (LR) was undiscussed in this study due to its disaster prediction limitations. While LR is advantageous when handling small datasets with limited independent variables, it faces significant drawbacks in high-dimensional and multi-variable scenarios. Moreover, the simplistic structure of LR tends to result in underfitting, causing inferior predictive performance. Furthermore, when dealing with large-scale data, the process becomes computationally intensive for LR. In contrast, machine learning models like RF, SVM, and GBM, along with ensemble techniques, are better suited for addressing the complexity of earthquake-induced landslide prediction.

The models were trained using a dataset comprising 3191 data points, including various topographic, geological, and seismic variables such as slope-related factors, curvature, elevation, aspect, lithology, peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and distances to nearby faults and rivers. The dataset was labeled into two categories: coseismic landslide (CL) data labeled as 1 and non-coseismic landslide (NCL) data labeled as 0. To train and evaluate the models, the dataset was divided into two subsets: 70% was used as the training set to build and fine-tune the models, while the remaining served as the test set to assess their predictive performance. The confusion matrices of the four models were the basis for comparing their performance. All models’ accuracy exceeds 0.95. Among them, the SVM model reached the highest at 0.9822, followed by GBM (0.9702), RF (0.9697), and KNN (0.9530). The greater performance of SVM can be attributed to its ability to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear data more effectively, using kernel functions to transform the feature space and maximize the margin between classes, enhancing its classification precision and generalization capability.

To further enhance prediction reliability, an ensemble model was developed by integrating the RF, SVM, and GBM models, while the KNN model, showing the lowest accuracy, was excluded, ensuring the number of the models was odd. The final prediction of the ensemble model was voted by the outcome of the three models, substantially reducing prediction errors.

Compared to logistic regression models, the ensemble approach is more dependable. While logistic regression struggles with high-dimensional, non-linear, and strongly correlated geophysical variables, the ensemble model formed by three machine learning models (RF, SVM, and GBM) combines their strengths to tackle these challenges. By leveraging the models’ diversity, the ensemble reduces overfitting and enhances the robustness of predictions, highlighting the ensemble model’s capability in addressing the complexities of coseismic landslide prediction.

How to cite: Ou Yang, Y. H., Chao, W. A., and Yang, C. M.: Machine Learning for High-Accuracy Co-Seismic Landslide Risk Prediction Using Multi-Parametric Data: A Case Study of M7.2 Hualien Earthquake, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10556, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10556, 2025.

EGU25-10781 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

How preconditioning rainfall controls landslide and flash flood events in tropical East Africa 

Axel Deijns, Wim Thiery, Aline Déprez, Antoine Dille, Jean-Philippe Malet, Jean-Claude Maki Mateso, David Michéa, Josué Mugisho Bachinyaga, John Sekajugo, Pascal Sibomana, Jakob Zscheischler, François Kervyn, and Olivier Dewitte

Flash floods frequently co-occur with landslides, during which landslides can deliver large amounts of hillslope material into the river system. Their interaction can lead to exacerbated and destructive impacts. While such geo-hydrological hazards are typically triggered by intense rainfall over only a few hours, daily to monthly variations in rainfall drive soil moisture changes and alter their likelihood of occurrence, alone or in combination. The influence of this preconditioning rainfall on compounding landslides and flash floods, however, remains overlooked. Acquired through the combined use of optical and radar satellite imagery, we present a unique multi-temporal inventory of a hundred new landslide and flash flood events located in a large region in the African tropics that is characterized by active rifting and strong human influences on the landscape. From this inventory we show that preconditioning rainfall plays a central role in the occurrence of landslide and flash flood events, along with land use/land cover and landscape geological history. Wetter-than-average conditions in human-dominated cultivated areas on rejuvenated hillslopes associated with the rift formation more frequently lead to compounding flash floods and landslides. On the other hand, drier-than-average conditions in forested regions outside these rejuvenated landscapes more often lead to compounding, densely spaced and larger landslides without flash floods. This research shows that preconditioning rainfall can exacerbate the severity of co-occurring and interacting landslide and flash flood events, stressing the need to understand these geo-hydrological hazard in a compounding manner.

How to cite: Deijns, A., Thiery, W., Déprez, A., Dille, A., Malet, J.-P., Maki Mateso, J.-C., Michéa, D., Mugisho Bachinyaga, J., Sekajugo, J., Sibomana, P., Zscheischler, J., Kervyn, F., and Dewitte, O.: How preconditioning rainfall controls landslide and flash flood events in tropical East Africa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10781, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10781, 2025.

EGU25-11572 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Long-Term In-Situ Monitoring for the Analysis of Landslides Acceleration vs Precipitation Relationships (Northern Apennines and Eastern Alps, Italy) 

Melissa Tondo, Marco Mulas, Vincenzo Critelli, Francesco Lelli, Cecilia Fabbiani, Marco Aleotti, Giuseppe Caputo, Giovanni Truffelli, Gianluca Marcato, Volkmar Mair, David Tonidandel, and Alessandro Corsini

Nowadays, the correlation between precipitation and changes in displacement rates of suspended or reactivated landslides, especially for deep-seated phenomena, is still poorly defined on a quantitative basis. This study, exploits long-term in-situ monitoring time series to propose new rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds that can discriminate the acceleration of complex deep-seated landslides, including earthslides-earthflows (ES-EF), rockslides-earthslides (RS-ES), and deep-seated gravitational slope deformations-rockslides (DSGSD-RS).

The analysis focuses on 15 landslides in the Northern Apennines and Eastern Alps of Italy, which have been monitored in the period from 2001 to 2024. Monitoring was conducted using Robotic Total Stations (RTS), periodic, and continuous GNSS networks, leading to the documentation of 100 acceleration events. These events were analysed in relation to rainfall and temperature data from nearby meteorological stations, enabling the retrieval of intensity (mm/h) and duration (h) values regarding the antecedent triggering rainfall. This association was conducted considering both total rainfall (TR) and effective rainfall (ER). ER represents the amount of water potentially infiltrating in the ground having accounted for the aliquot lost due to evapotranspiration (ET) and snowfall and for the aliquot gained due to snowmelt processes.

Simultaneously, rainfall events not resulting in landslide accelerations were identified by examining the complete meteorological records for each landslide within the monitoring period. Both sets of intensity-duration records – i.e. those linked to and those independent from acceleration events – were analysed using a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) approach. This method allowed to identify optimal rainfall thresholds and to compare their predictive capability with that of thresholds established by other authors for landslides occurrences.

The findings reveal that the proposed new thresholds tailored to a landslide’s accelerations dataset offer higher predictive accuracy compared to the established ones. Moreover, the study emphasizes the enhanced predictive performance achieved by incorporating effective rainfall, especially in scenarios where snowmelt contributes to landslide acceleration. These results underscore the importance of long-term in-situ monitoring and of introducing effective rainfall computations in the analysis, so to better account for various hydrological processes influencing landslide behaviour, ultimately improving early warning systems and risk management strategies for complex landslides in mountainous regions.

How to cite: Tondo, M., Mulas, M., Critelli, V., Lelli, F., Fabbiani, C., Aleotti, M., Caputo, G., Truffelli, G., Marcato, G., Mair, V., Tonidandel, D., and Corsini, A.: Long-Term In-Situ Monitoring for the Analysis of Landslides Acceleration vs Precipitation Relationships (Northern Apennines and Eastern Alps, Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11572, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11572, 2025.

EGU25-12109 | Posters on site | NH3.16

Landslide Change Detection from Satellite Images with Deep Learning Classification 

Fuan Tsai and Shang-Nien Tsai

Landslide is one of the most common natural hazards in Taiwan. Because of the complicated terrain, geological, geotechnical and weather conditions in Taiwan, landslides are frequently triggered by earthquakes, typhoons or heavy rainfalls almost year-round, posing significant threats to human lives and property and sometimes causing catastrophic damages. Rapid and accurate detection and classification of landslides are crucial for disaster mitigation, management and prevention. In this regards, satellite remote sensing is an effective approach for collecting data. However, accurate mapping and monitoring landslides usually requires analyzing considerable amounts of images, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. In addition, in some mountainous regions, landslides may occur repeatedly, and old landslides affected areas may be reclaimed by vegetation, making it difficult to fully understand the spatio-temporal characteristics and changes of landslides. To address these issues, this study adopts a deep learning framework, TransUNet, and develops a two-stage training process and data stacking strategy to detect and classify landslide changes from multi-temporal satellite images of a mountainous watershed region is southern Taiwan. TransUNet combines the strengths of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers. Three benchmark datasets (Landslide4Sense, HR-GLDD, and Bijie Dataset) were evaluated in conjunction with labelled image titles extracted from collected SPOT satellite images of the study area for transfer learning. Training of the deep learning model was separated into two stages: the first stage focused on initial landslide change detection, while the second stage refined the classifications by applying a weighting scheme. Results of this study show that TransUNet performs well with high-resolution satellite images for landslide change detection, with the best Precision, Recall and F1-Score of 0.92, 0.76 and 0.82, respectively. In addition, despite lacking a temporal feature extraction framework, developed model can effectively distinguishes the changes of landslide affected areas such as old landslides, new landslides, and vegetation reclaimed areas.

How to cite: Tsai, F. and Tsai, S.-N.: Landslide Change Detection from Satellite Images with Deep Learning Classification, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12109, 2025.

EGU25-12687 | Orals | NH3.16

Preliminary identification of hydro-meteorological conditions that trigger landslides in Norway 

Graziella Devoli, Anne K. Fleig, and Vilde K.M. Olvin

To reduce the impacts of debris flows, debris avalanches and slushflows the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) is operating a forecasting and early warning service that issues daily landslide warnings to local authorities and public in general. Already in the first 5 years of operations, it has been observed that the most relevant landslide-triggered hydro-meteorological conditions (LHMC) vary between regions and seasons. Two different approaches have been tested to further explore this observation. 

Using a heuristic approach, based on observations, region and season specific LHMC have been identified. These conditions are defined by the spatial and temporal distribution of different hydro-meteorological parameters (e.g. rainfall, snowmelt, soil saturation, etc.), landslide occurrence, as well as other synoptic conditions (i.e. information about location and paths of low- and high-pressure systems, coincidence of atmospheric rivers, strong wind, extreme events, etc.). The landslide data are obtained from the national mass movements database available at www.skredregistrering.no, while historical hydro-meteorological data are recorded as 1km2 grid maps at seNorge.no.

The analysis confirmed that water, in form of rainfall (also convective), snowmelt, high soil saturation or a combination of them, is the main triggering mechanism of landslides. In total eight hydro-meteorological conditions have been found to be most relevant for landslide occurrence. Each LHMC is described based on certain criteria like: main exposed areas, temporal distribution (season and month), general weather description and type of weather prognosis, duration of the condition, other synoptic information, list of dates when the condition was observed and caused landslides, general description of the main hydro-meteorological parameters, number and type of landslides, information about other associated hazards, evaluation of the landslide hazard index performance and recommendation about the most appropiate warning level.

Separately, a quantitatively evaluation was also tested, in a selected region, by using rain as main triggering factor, and the Grosswetterlagen (GWL) weather pattern classification through exploratory and statistical analysis, to see how this can be used as integrated tool in the operational service. 

In this work, the applied analytical process is described. The hydro-meteorological conditions and their predictability are also shortly described, by presenting some recent examples. Finally, it is explained how the LHMC are integrated in the daily forecasting operations. Ideas for improvements will be discussed.  

How to cite: Devoli, G., Fleig, A. K., and Olvin, V. K. M.: Preliminary identification of hydro-meteorological conditions that trigger landslides in Norway, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12687, 2025.

EGU25-13845 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.16

An evaluation and comparison of hydroclimatic data preceding extremely rapid glaciolacustrine landslides 

Andrew Funk, Lisa Tauskela, Megan van Veen, Andrew Mitchell, and Michael Porter

Deep-seated landslides in overconsolidated glaciolacustrine materials typically cycle through episodic periods of gradual acceleration and deceleration. The 1973 Attachie landslide (BC, Canada) and 2014 Oso landslide (Washington, USA) are well-known examples of landslides that deviate from this trend, instead failing extremely rapidly, with considerable runout that dammed the Peace River (Attachie) and impacted a community nearly 1.5 km away, resulting in 43 fatalities (Oso). Given the velocity and runout distance of these two landslides, further characterization of the landslide, priming, and trigger mechanisms may help manage geohazard risk for other landslides in similar terrain.

The landslide mechanisms and antecedent climatic conditions prior to failure have been relatively well studied for the Attachie and Oso landslides. As part of these studies, hydroclimatic re-analysis tools have been applied, correlating soil moisture data with precipitation records to understand the dominant timescale by which hydroclimatic conditions may have triggered activity within these landslides in the past.

In spring 2022, another extremely rapid landslide derived from glaciolacustrine materials occurred on the Halfway River, less than 10 km away from and initiating within the same geological unit as the 1973 Attachie landslide. The objectives of this study are twofold: to apply the same hydroclimatic re-analysis and precipitation review methodology to the Halfway River landslide, and to compare hydroclimatic trends across all three landslides. Comparison of landslide morphology, mechanisms, and material properties between these landslides are left to future research.

Soil moisture and precipitation data were obtained from the land component of the ERA5 climatological re-analysis data produced by Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union. At the Halfway River slide, soil moisture (1-3 m depth) was above the monthly average for 65% of the months since over the 8-year period prior to the failure, with above-average annual soil moisture in 5 of the 8 years. Soil moisture and precipitation at the time of failure were not exceptional, although the failure occurred during the first rain-on-snow event in above-zero °C conditions of the year, which may be the triggering event. Annual precipitation and soil moisture in the year prior to the April 2022 failure were below average, indicating that one year of drier-than-average conditions may be insufficient in arresting the deformation processes that are hypothesized to predicate these extremely rapid failures.

No discrete trigger was identified for the Attachie landslide. The dominant theory is that a longer-term internal deformation and acceleration trend associated with a 10-to-15-year period of above-average soil moisture preceding the 1973 failure caused the event. At the Oso landslide, a possible triggering event was identified from a nearly one in 10-year soil moisture peak, resulting from both a longer-term elevated soil moisture trend and three weeks of intense rainfall. This occurred in the context of a 4-year period of above-average precipitation. While it is likely that a variety of processes contributed to the extremely rapid failures of these landslides, these examples support the current hypothesis that multi-year moisture trends drive gradual deformation, preconditioning these slopes for extremely rapid failures.

How to cite: Funk, A., Tauskela, L., van Veen, M., Mitchell, A., and Porter, M.: An evaluation and comparison of hydroclimatic data preceding extremely rapid glaciolacustrine landslides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13845, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13845, 2025.

EGU25-14403 | Orals | NH3.16

Protecting Data Privacy in Landslide Detection Using Privacy-Preserving Machine Learning 

Xiaochuan Tang, Ling He, Xiaochuan Yan, Xiao Ye, Keren Dai, Alessandro Novellino, Huailiang Li, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, and Filippo Catani

Landslides pose substantial risks to both local populations and critical infrastructure in high-risk areas. Numerous technologies have been developed to monitor landslides, resulting in a growing amount of landslide monitoring data, such as very high resolution remote sensing data and in-situ monitoring data. These data have great potential for developing advanced machine learning models for geohazard assessment. Privacy and security issues are raising concerns, hindering the collection of large datasets required for developing powerful machine learning models. However, existing landslide detection models explicitly or implicitly assume that landslide monitoring and mapping data are directly shared on a centralized server. This assumption leads to a gap between data sharing practices and machine learning modeling in landslide detection. To bridge this gap, we leverage a privacy-preserving machine learning model for the landslide detection task. First, a federated learning method is introduced to protect data privacy throughout the modeling process, enabling the development of landalide detection models without the need to share raw data. Second, we introduce a fair incentive mechanism to evaluate the contributions of participants and encourage more data owners to engage in landslide data sharing. Finally, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively protects data privacy while maintaining high prediction accuracy. This approach not only facilitates secure data sharing but also enables institutions to develop more robust machine learning models for geohazard assessment, thereby advancing the field of landslide prevention and mitigation.

How to cite: Tang, X., He, L., Yan, X., Ye, X., Dai, K., Novellino, A., Li, H., Heidarzadeh, M., and Catani, F.: Protecting Data Privacy in Landslide Detection Using Privacy-Preserving Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14403, 2025.

EGU25-14690 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Meteorological drivers of seasonal motion at the Barry Arm Landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska 

Helen Dow, Brian Collins, Gabriel Wolken, Charles Miles, and Johannes Gassner

Global climate change creates geologic hazard cascades as the cryosphere experiences warming. The rapid retreat of Barry Glacier, a tidewater glacier in Prince William Sound, Alaska, has destabilized the cliff walls adjacent to the fjord, including a large landslide, approximately 2-km-wide, 1-km-tall, and ∼500 Mm3 in volume. The Barry Arm landslide was first identified in 2019 but has since been noted in photographs dating back to the 1930s. Catastrophic failure of the landslide has the potential to generate a tsunami with life-threatening waves in nearby fjords, including the port town of Whittier, 60 km from the landslide. Since monitoring began in 2021, slow downslope movement with short periods of acceleration has been observed. In this study, we refine the observations of landslide acceleration and correlate these periods with meteorological observations to assess the potential for further acceleration and catastrophic failure. We use ground-based synthetic aperture radar data (GBInSAR) collected sub-hourly from a location across the Barry Arm fjord since May 2022 with a line of sight that captures ~90% of the downslope landslide vector movement to generate time series of the landslide’s three main kinematic elements (distinct regions of deformation). This time series shows landslide-wide motion from late August to early November 2022 (2 months) at rates of 20-80 mm/day, then again from late September to mid-October 2023 (1.5 months) at 10-20 mm/day. No landslide-wide motion was detected in 2024. The Cascade Glacier sits stratigraphically above and to the northwest of the landslide and has been identified as a potential source of water for the landslide system. Ice-penetrating radar data collected in 2024 show an over-deepened section of Cascade Glacier adjacent to the most active kinematic element of the landslide, the Kite, suggesting melt water might pool and subsequently seep into the Kite kinematic element. Two full meteorological stations, each with additional node stations, monitor weather near the landslide and provide 15-minute precipitation and temperature data. We combine a simple positive degree-day factor melt model with precipitation analysis to show that the timing of movement of the Kite is correlated with the effects of seepage into the landslide subsurface, which are primarily driven by snow and ice melt. Understanding links between landslide displacement and melting of snow and ice could potentially lead to the use of meteorological conditions or forecasts as an additional risk assessment tool for identifying when the hazard of failure could be most severe. Our study accompanies others’ analyses of the Barry Arm Landslide using lidar, satellite InSAR, seismic, and infrasound data and contributes to our limited but critical understanding of landslide hazards in Alaska.

How to cite: Dow, H., Collins, B., Wolken, G., Miles, C., and Gassner, J.: Meteorological drivers of seasonal motion at the Barry Arm Landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14690, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14690, 2025.

EGU25-15564 | ECS | Posters on site | NH3.16

Monitoring current impacts of climate change on slope stability in the Ormonts valley, western Switzerland 

Amalia Gutierrez, Marc-Henri Derron, Christian Gerber, Nicolas Gendre, Gabriela Werren, and Michel Jaboyedoff

The Upper Ormonts Valley (Ormonts-Dessus), located in western Switzerland, corresponds to the catchment area of the Grande Eau River and is located on the border between the Pre-Alps and the Alps. The valley has a general east-west orientation and is bounded by the Pic Chaussy – La Para massif to the north, the Diablerets massif to the east and southeast, and the Chamossaire – Col de la Croix massif to the south. Historically, it has been exposed to many natural hazards such as avalanches, floods, landslides, rockfalls and debris flows. The southern slope of the Pic Chaussy – La Para massif, facing the valley, is subject to avalanches as well as rockfalls, debris flows and shallow landslides. This slope has been monitored using temperature sensors near the summit, combined with data from a SLF weather station (Swiss National Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research), and annual lidar scans from the opposite side of the valley. In the Diablerets massif, two tributaries of the Grande Eau River, the Dar (10 km2) and the "upper" Grande Eau (12 km2), were also studied. After the confluence of the two alpine streams, the Grande Eau flows through the village of Les Diablerets, a major tourist destination in the area. Here, floods and high bedload events have occurred, and riverbank erosion is common. The Dar glacial cirque is an area of high sediment production due to permafrost thaw, while landslides are common in the lower part of the Dar catchment. Both tributaries have been monitored using time-lapse wildlife cameras and annual lidar scans. The Dar catchment has been studied more extensively using DoD’s, drone orthomosaics, lidar scans and sediment budget estimates. A drone lidar scan is planned for this spring. Despite  the short observation period (2023-2024), some drivers of change have been identified. Mild winters and wet springs such as that of 2023/2024 resulted in exceptional precipitations at mid-elevations, as well as large daily temperature variations at high elevations. Wet conditions such as these favored shallow landslides, strong riverbank erosion and a few high discharge events in the Grande Eau River. Changes in rockfall frequency have not yet been observed. And the effects of a stronger winter like 2024/2025 remain to be seen.

How to cite: Gutierrez, A., Derron, M.-H., Gerber, C., Gendre, N., Werren, G., and Jaboyedoff, M.: Monitoring current impacts of climate change on slope stability in the Ormonts valley, western Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15564, 2025.

Forecasting of landslides is crucial because these natural hazards pose significant threats to human lives, infrastructure, economies, and ecosystems. Understanding the spatial and temporal drivers of landslides enables better risk assessment, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. In previous decades, numerous studies have shown that adding hydrological information and advancements in modelling techniques have improved regional landslide early warning systems (LEWS). However, operational LEWSs are still a few. This brings up the question how the next generation LEWS needs to look like.

Landslide hazard assessment on regional scale has been founded on two main pillars: the essential inventories of slope failures and on the quantification of the hydrometeorological drivers. First, the lack of landslide inventories and the dominance of seemingly stable slopes in a region constraints our ability to empirically train landslide early warning systems. The inclusion of more multi-source slope deformation information is a logical development, however, turns out to have its own challenges; it merges different physical properties within one database. Second, causal and triggering hydrometeorological conditions are needed both in space and time for effective landslide prediction. Ideally, one would start with high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall and soil hydrological information. While acknowledging existing challenges, impressive progress has been made in this field. Combined monitoring and advanced modelling on a range of scales has resulted in valuable information on, for example, subsurface water storage. Similarly, near real-time and forecasted high resolution rainfall information from ground based rain radars shows promising results. The improved representation of the hydrometeorological conditions improves the performance of LEWS.

Starting from a brief review of the developments and limitations of regional hazard assessment, the presentation will discuss the opportunities to improve the landslide inventory site as well as through hybrid measurement and modelling approaches to quantify the dynamic hydrometeorological conditions. Landslides are an anomaly in a seemingly stable environment, and inherently, forecasting of such rare events in space and time is associated with uncertainty, but this uncertainty can be reduced which is key for protecting society from the impact of landslide hazards. 

How to cite: Bogaard, T.: Challenges and opportunities in regional hydrometeorological landslide assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15725, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15725, 2025.

EGU25-16692 | Posters on site | NH3.16

Automated detection of active mass movements in SAR interferograms using Deep Learning 

Alessandro Mondini, Fabio Bovenga, Alessandro Simoni, Cristina Reyes-Carmona, Alessandro Mercurio, and Federico Agliardi

Slow mass movements are widespread players of slope dynamics, with different mechanisms depending on involved materials and geomorphic settings. Alpine para/periglacial environments are extensively affected by slow rock-slope deformations, deep-seated rock and debris slides, and active periglacial features, while fluvial-dominated mountain ranges are typically affected by rapid rockslides and long-lived earthflows. These processes exhibit different deformation patterns and rates, threatening lives and infrastructures in different ways. Mapping and monitoring slow mass movements is thus essential for civil protection, land management, and disaster risk reduction, requiring capabilities to rapidly map and classify processes over large areas.

Current regional-scale approaches to capture mass movement activity rely on geomorphological techniques supported by remote sensing. These approaches are accurate but time consuming and difficult to update. Such gaps could be filled using artificial intelligence techniques, currently mostly based on the interpretation of optical imagery or multitemporal InSAR data. Nevertheless, mass movements are often too fast to be captured by multitemporal InSAR and too slow for optical or amplitude SAR image analysis. Dual-pass satellite DInSAR products offer a valuable alternative to study these intermediate processes by the analyses of interferometric fringes, yet they suffer from noise, artifacts, and unwanted signals due to atmospheric disturbances.

We propose a deep learning model to automate the detection and classification of different types of mass movements in different geological and geomorphological settings through the interpretation of deformation fringes in DInSAR interferograms. To this aim, we use a YOLO, a convolutional object detector, aimed at interpreting routinely available wrapped interferograms. To mirror the interpretative process carried out by a human expert, input data include interferograms, a compound measure of the reliability of the interferogram, and a composite layer of geomorphological and morphometric information.

To train our net, we developed a geomorphologically constrained methodology to construct libraries of labeled expert-interpreted InSAR phase signal, corresponding to different mass movements recognized in two large (103 km2) test areas in the Central Alps (Lombardia) and Apennine (Emilia-Romagna) of Italy, representing diverse processes and geological settings. The model is tested with sets of routinely generated SAR interferograms, to produce automated maps able to detect and classify mass movements over different timescales. This approach promises to streamline the rapid generation and update of active landslide inventories, to support local-scale landslide monitoring plans and civil protection actions, and improve the integration of data into landslide modeling efforts.

How to cite: Mondini, A., Bovenga, F., Simoni, A., Reyes-Carmona, C., Mercurio, A., and Agliardi, F.: Automated detection of active mass movements in SAR interferograms using Deep Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16692, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16692, 2025.

EGU25-16906 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Deciphering landslide occurrence under climate change in South Tyrol (Italian Alps) using interpretable data-driven models 

Barbara Zennaro, Marc Zebisch, Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Lemus i Cànovas, Francesco Comiti, and Stefan Steger

Rainfall-induced shallow landslides are expected to change in frequency and distribution as a result of altered patterns and intensity of rainfall. Yet, linking climate change effects to past occurrences is challenging due to the lack of long-term, systematic, and reliable datasets of landslide events. However, the widely observed increase in the number of recorded landslides over time may also be indicative in the extent of exposed assets and their vulnerability, as well as the more comprehensive event documentation carried out in recent years, rather than reflecting the actual impacts of climate change.

To decipher such a conundrum, a high-resolution space-time data-driven model recently developed and trained for well-observed time periods within the territory of South Tyrol (Italian Alps) was used to create a continuous dataset of daily landslide hindcasts (i.e. modelled probabilities) to be used as a proxy for critical conditions of landslide occurrence in space and time. High landslide probabilities in the dataset can be linked to recorded landslides, but could also represent nearly-missed events, landslides that occurred but were not recorded (for example, those that happened in remote areas away from infrastructures), or to model errors.

Daily landslide probability predictions were obtained on a 30mx30m grid for the years 1980-2020, using both static (topography, geologicy and vegetation) and dynamic factors (antecedent and triggering precipitation, and seasonal effects). The results were aggregated over 5261 slope units identified for South Tyrol, which better reflect the hydrological and geomorphological processes shaping the landscape providing, at the same time, consistent geographical boundaries to manage the aleatory uncertainty of the model.

This new enriched dataset has been used to explore changing trends and patterns in landslide probability predictions and investigate underlying causes, such as the role of the Jenkinson and Collison weather types in shaping the spatial patterns of probability predictions.

Our results could improve the ability to predict critical conditions for landslide occurrences in the future, thereby offering new tools for mitigation and adaptation strategies, and specifically supporting the elaboration of efficient early warning systems.

How to cite: Zennaro, B., Zebisch, M., Pittore, M., Lemus i Cànovas, M., Comiti, F., and Steger, S.: Deciphering landslide occurrence under climate change in South Tyrol (Italian Alps) using interpretable data-driven models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16906, 2025.

EGU25-17096 | ECS | Orals | NH3.16

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Based Displacement Analysis and Forecasting for Unstable Rock Slopes 

Lukas Schild, Thomas Scheiber, Paula Snook, Alexander Maschler, and Reza Arghandeh

Geohazards such as landslides, rock avalanches or rock falls from unstable slopes can seriously threaten human life and infrastructure. Monitoring unstable slopes coupled with real-time data analyses to assess the risk they pose and mitigate this risk is thus indispensable. Machine learning-based methods for analysing monitoring data recently significantly improved the forecasting possibilities for failure events. However, one major limitation of Machine Learning-based methods is that they primarily provide "Black Box"-models. These models can, for example, transform arbitrary input into a sequence of predictions, albeit without a transparent explanation of how the output is derived from the input. Even though State-of-the-Art Machine Learning often outperforms traditional failure forecasting methods, such as the Inverse Velocity method, this limitation greatly hampers the application of these methods in practice. Recent advances in eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) have led to the development of the field of Causal Artificial Intelligence. As opposed to many Machine Learning approaches which are based on Deep Neural Networks, XAI aims to offer transparent models that provide explanations for model outputs. We therefore propose a novel forecasting approach based on XAI, leveraging Graph Neural Networks and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks. Our approach aims to learn a causal model of an unstable slope or one particular section of it, including slope-internal and meteorological factors that can be represented as a graph, visualising cause-and-effect relationships between the variables. As such, our goal is twofold, and we aim at (1) providing insight into the mechanisms driving slope displacement, and (2) using this information for explainable short-term forecasting by selecting only causally related features from all available data. We apply our method to two case study sites for displacement driver analysis and short-term displacement prediction and compare the model performance to recent State-of-the-Art models. Our method not only aligns with but even outperforms existing models in terms of prediction accuracy and offers, in addition, superior interpretability. The proposed framework provides crucial support for geohazard assessment and monitoring network design. Furthermore, the displacement prediction has great potential as standalone predictive network as well as for hybrid failure prediction methods, for example in combination with traditional long-term failure predictions such as the Inverse Velocity method. While developed with medium-scale rock sections in mind, the method may be adapted to larger rock volumes as well as slow-moving mass movements with failure potential in general. The usage of accurate and interpretable prediction models represents a significant advancement, overcoming the transparency issues of models generated by complex Artificial Neural Networks, ultimately contributing to improving Early Warning Systems.

How to cite: Schild, L., Scheiber, T., Snook, P., Maschler, A., and Arghandeh, R.: Explainable Artificial Intelligence Based Displacement Analysis and Forecasting for Unstable Rock Slopes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17096, 2025.

EGU25-18812 | Posters on site | NH3.16

Automated Landslide Inventory Mapping Using SAMLoRA and Hillshade Datasets: A Deep Learning Approach 

Ionut Sandric, Viorel Ilinca, Ales Letal, Sansar Raj Meena, Radu Irimia, Anamaria Botea, Filippo Catani, Zenaida Chitu, and Jan Klimes

Landslide inventories are essential for hazard assessment and risk mitigation, yet their accurate and efficient creation remains a challenge, particularly in forested and topographically complex regions. Traditional approaches relying on RGB imagery often struggle with dense vegetation cover, which obscures landslide features. In this study, we propose an innovative deep learning framework utilizing the Segment Anything Model with Low-Rank Adaptation (SAMLoRA) to automatically detect and map landslides from hillshade datasets. Hillshade representations, derived from high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), provide enhanced visibility of topographic features by emphasizing surface morphology independent of vegetation cover.

Our model was trained on a diverse dataset collected from Romania, Czechia, and Italy, comprising over 5,000 manually delineated landslide polygons. By leveraging the SAMLoRA model, which combines the robust segmentation capabilities of SAM with the adaptability of LoRA for domain-specific fine-tuning, we achieve superior landslide detection performance compared to RGB-based methods. Our approach effectively identifies landslides even in densely forested areas, where traditional image-based techniques often fail. Experimental results demonstrate that the SAMLoRA model achieves an accuracy exceeding 80%, significantly improving both precision and recall while reducing manual mapping efforts.

This study highlights the potential of deep learning applied to topographic derivatives, paving the way for more reliable and automated landslide inventory mapping in diverse and challenging environments.

How to cite: Sandric, I., Ilinca, V., Letal, A., Raj Meena, S., Irimia, R., Botea, A., Catani, F., Chitu, Z., and Klimes, J.: Automated Landslide Inventory Mapping Using SAMLoRA and Hillshade Datasets: A Deep Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18812, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18812, 2025.

EGU25-19794 | Orals | NH3.16

Comparative Analysis of Satellite and Gauge-Based Precipitation Data for Landslide Risk Assessment in Himalayas 

Salil Sharma, Siddik Barbhuiya, Vivek Gupta, and Subhankar Das

The Himalayan region is prone to numerous landslides, primarily triggered by heavy precipitation. Most of these landslides occur from June to September, coinciding with the monsoon period. Therefore, monitoring rainfall intensity is vital for landslide risk assessment in the Himalayas. However, the sparse network of rain gauges in this region poses a significant challenge for climate extremes research. Satellite and Land Surface Model-derived precipitation products can help assess climate risks like landslides and floods without the need for installing rain gauges in remote locations. This study compares gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products at 25 different locations using various statistical tools to evaluate their performance in landslide hazard assessment in the Himalayas. Based on statistical metrics, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) demonstrated the highest efficiency in reproducing spatiotemporal precipitation patterns at landslide-prone sites. The comparison involved metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC), and Relative Bias (RB), along with rainfall frequency indicators and intensity comparisons. ERA5 emerged as the best-performing product, with RMSE ranging from 2.31 to 29.80, the highest CC, and the minimum RB at most sites. It successfully estimated 5761 days of very heavy rainy days (>20mm) compared to 5014 days recorded by rain gauges. Additionally, the correlation for rainfall intensity over a 30-day cumulative period was highest for ERA5 at most sites. The role of antecedent soil moisture in triggering of landslides cannot be ignored. However, in situ soil moisture data are rarely available in hazardous zones. The advanced remote sensing technology could provide useful soil moisture information. The study explores the use of GLDAS soil moisture product at the root zone depth along with ERA5 precipitation over a prolonged period to calculate thresholds for landslide initiation under different environmental conditions over the Indian Himalayas. The study reveals that certain combinations of Land Use Land Cover classes and soil types, especially on steeper slopes, are more susceptible to landslides, with landslides being triggered even at relatively low levels of soil moisture and precipitation.

How to cite: Sharma, S., Barbhuiya, S., Gupta, V., and Das, S.: Comparative Analysis of Satellite and Gauge-Based Precipitation Data for Landslide Risk Assessment in Himalayas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19794, 2025.

EGU25-20095 | Orals | NH3.16

Enhancing Underground Cave Stability Assessment through Physically-Based Machine Learning Methods 

Nunzio Luciano Fazio, Francesca Sollecito, Piernicola Lollino, and Vincenzo Fazio

In recent years, the risk of landslides caused by man-made underground caves has increased on Italian territory, with significant consequences for human life and for the anthropogenic environment. Such artificial caves have generally been dug and subsequently abandoned in very soft porous rock formations, such as calcarenite deposits, even at shallow depths. The low mechanical strength values of such rocks, together with their susceptibility to weathering and consequent loss of strength, make these rock masses prone to sinkhole formation. In order to develop a rapid but mechanically based method to assess the stability of artificial caves based on the geometrical features of the cave and the mechanical properties of the rock, an improved formulation of the abaci, originally proposed by Perrotti et al. (2018), has recently been proposed by Mevoli et al. (2024), which introduces the ability to also assess the range of the cave safety factor. In this perspective, the application of the abaci can be used as a quantitative tool for the preliminary assessment of sinkhole hazards, enabling large scale analyses that can subsequently be followed by a detailed and advanced study at the local scale.

A data-driven approach was employed to compare and discuss the results obtained from the direct application of the abaci, based on this newly developed version. The selected method, proposed by Giustolisi and Savic (2006), and known as 'Evolutionary Polynomial Regression', is based on the genetic programming paradigm and returns simple functional relationships, namely polynomials of elementary functions, among the considered physical parameters. In particular, it generates a Pareto front of expressions that considers simplicity and accuracy. This facilitates the interpretation of the results of the data modelling approach, thereby maintaining focus on the physics of the phenomenon under investigation, as outlined by Fazio et al. (2024).The results will also demonstrate the use of these machine learning techniques to provide mathematical formulations that can be readily employed in the field by experts involved in assessing the stability of underground cavities.

 

Perrotti M., Lollino P., Fazio N.L., Pisano L., Vessia G., Parise M., Fiore A., Luisi M. (2018). Finite Element– Based stability Charts for Underground Cavities in Soft Calcarenites. Int. J. Geomechanics, 18(7), DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0001175.

Mevoli, F.A., Fazio, N.L., Perrotti, M. et al. Assessing the stability of underground caves through iSUMM (innovative, straightforward, user-friendly, mechanically-based method). Geoenviron Disasters 11, 10 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-023-00264-3

Giustolisi O., Savic D. A. (2006). A symbolic data-driven technique based on evolutionary polynomial regression." J. of Hydroinformatics, 8 (3), 207-222.

Fazio, V., Pugno, N. M., Giustolisi, O., & Puglisi, G. (2024). Physically based machine learning for hierarchical materials. Cell Reports Physical Science, 5(2).

How to cite: Fazio, N. L., Sollecito, F., Lollino, P., and Fazio, V.: Enhancing Underground Cave Stability Assessment through Physically-Based Machine Learning Methods, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20095, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20095, 2025.

EGU25-290 | Orals | NH9.1

Increasingly seasonal jet stream enhances joint wind-flood risk in Great Britain 

John K. Hillier, Hannah Bloomfield, Colin Manning, Freya Garry, Len Shaffrey, Paul Bates, and Dhirendra Khumar

Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport of power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co-occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a 1981-1999 baseline and projections of 2061-2079 (RCP8.5). We create a new wintertime (Oct-Mar) set of 3,427 wind events to match an existing set of fluvial flow extremes and design innovative multi-event episodest of 1-180 days long) that reflect how periods of adverse weather affect society (e.g. through damage). We show that the probability of co-occurring wind-flow episodes in Great Britain (GB) is underestimated 2-4 times if events are assumed independent. Significantly, this underestimation is greater both as severity increases and episode length reduces, highlighting the importance of considering risk from closely consecutive (Δt 3 days) and the most severe storms. In the future (2061-2079), joint wind-flow extremes are twice as likely as during 1981-1999. Statistical modelling demonstrates that changes may significantly exceed thermodynamic expectations of higher river flows in a wetter future climate. The largest co-occurrence increases happen in mid-winter (DJF) with changes in the north Atlantic jet stream an important driver; we find the jet is strengthened and squeezed into a southward-shifted latitude window (45-50°N) giving typical future conditions that match instances of high flows and joint extremes impacting GB today.  This strongly implies that the driving large-scale driving conditions (e.g. jet stream state) for a multi-impact ‘perfect storm’ will vary by country; understanding regional drivers of weather hazards over climate timescales is vital to inform risk mitigation and planning (e.g. diversification, mutual aid across Europe).

How to cite: Hillier, J. K., Bloomfield, H., Manning, C., Garry, F., Shaffrey, L., Bates, P., and Khumar, D.: Increasingly seasonal jet stream enhances joint wind-flood risk in Great Britain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-290, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-290, 2025.

EGU25-1489 | ECS | Orals | NH9.1 | Highlight

Adaptation pathways highlight urgent economic need to reduce flood risks in Europe 

Vanessa Völz, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Lars Honsel, Robert Nicholls, Rémi Thiéblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, and Paul Sayers

Given the commitment to sea level rise, massive and costly coastal adaptation is essential to reduce flood risks. Yet, the economically optimal timing of adaptation and adaptation tipping points remain unexplored on global and continental scale in coastal impact assessments. In this study, we model efficient adaptation pathways for 41,327 individual coastal floodplains along Europe's coastline through 2150. We consider three disaster risk reduction measures as potential adaptation options: protection, retreat and accommodation. Our assessment identifies the economically optimal timing for implementing these options, as well as the associated adaptation tipping points.

Using the state-of-the-art COASTPROS-EU dataset to model current coastal protection levels, we estimate that expected annual flood damages currently total USD 182 billion (2024 value). Immediate adaptation investments could drastically reduce these damages to USD 4 billion. For 95% of coastal floodplains requiring (additional) adaptation, the optimal timing for initial adaptation investments is now. We attribute this urgency to the vulnerability and exposure of coastal floodplains, which are already locked-in into existing conditions and are economically under-protected.

Adaptation tipping points, i.e. critical thresholds that require a shift from one adaptation option to another, are most prevalent along the Mediterranean coastline. In these regions, accommodation eventually becomes insufficient, requiring a switch to either protection or retreat to maintain efficient flood risk mitigation. These adaptation tipping points are driven by committed sea level rise due to past emissions, with their timing influenced by the rate of future climate change. On average, tipping points occur 29 years earlier under higher climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5) compared to lower ones (SSP1-2.6).

How to cite: Völz, V., Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Honsel, L., Nicholls, R., Thiéblemont, R., Le Cozannet, G., and Sayers, P.: Adaptation pathways highlight urgent economic need to reduce flood risks in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1489, 2025.

EGU25-2767 | ECS | Orals | NH9.1 | Highlight

Coastal flood risk assessment for global coastal cities: integrating land subsidence, climate change and urban expansions 

Jiayi Fang, Wanchao Bian, Haiping Xia, and Ying Li

In the context of climate change, the combined effects of coastal land subsidence and sea level rise exacerbate coastal flood risks by altering relative sea levels. This study leverages high-resolution land subsidence rate data obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and employs the LISFLOOD-FP two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate coastal flooding for 43 coastal mega-cities globally. Our findings indicate that, when considering subsidence, over 76% of these cities experience an expansion in inundation areas under both Baseline and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, we conduct a quantitative assessment of the relative contributions of land subsidence and climate change to coastal flood inundation, identifying 19 cities where land subsidence plays a dominant role.

 

Moreover, the impact of urban expansion on coastal flood risk cannot be underestimated, particularly in coastal cities that experience rapid urbanization and extensive coastal reclamation activities. By incorporating annual data on the expansion of settlements, reclaimed coastal areas, and urban built-up areas, we evaluate the dynamic changes in coastal flood exposure and uncover a long-term trend of increasing potential impacts of coastal flooding in mainland China's coastal regions, which is at a continental scale. Specifically, the area of settlements located in coastal flood hazard zones has grown to 6.5 times its original size, while the area of reclaimed land within these zones has expanded to 26.3 times its original extent.

 

The insights from this study provide a valuable reference for sustainable development strategies and measures to address the escalating coastal flood hazards in coastal cities worldwide.

How to cite: Fang, J., Bian, W., Xia, H., and Li, Y.: Coastal flood risk assessment for global coastal cities: integrating land subsidence, climate change and urban expansions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2767, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2767, 2025.

EGU25-5981 | ECS | Orals | NH9.1

A living, community-led metadata catalog of geospatial data for climate risk assessments: an introduction to Climate Risk STAC 

Lena Reimann, Dirk Eilander, Timothy Tiggeloven, Milana Vuckovic, Matti Kummu, Andrea Vajda, Jeremy S. Pal, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Fredrik Wetterhal, and Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

Climate risks are increasing globally due to climate change, driven by intensifying climate hazards (e.g. storms, floods) and changes in socioeconomic conditions that drive exposure and vulnerability. Climate Risk Assessments (CRAs) constitute a tool to understand such risks under current and future conditions, based on the analysis of geospatial datasets. However, CRA data are often scattered across different data platforms, therefore inhibiting their Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reusability (FAIR). Consequently, selecting appropriate datasets for the CRA at hand can be a daunting and time-consuming task.

To make CRA data FAIR, we develop Climate Risk STAC, a living metadata catalog of open-access geospatial datasets that is hosted in a collaborative environment for further development. Climate Risk STAC (version 0.1) includes 214 data entries of 84 global-scale datasets from nine different hazards, five types of exposed elements, and seven vulnerability categories. All data entries can be explored in a user-friendly browser which eases selection of suitable data. We further encourage contributions of new datasets, thereby facilitating a continuously growing, community-led catalog that reflects the current state-of-the-art in CRA concepts and data. Version 0.1 currently focuses on global-scale geospatial data. Due to its flexible and collaborative design, the catalog can easily be extended to accommodate datasets from other domains and at other spatial scales. Climate Risk STAC is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14018438.

How to cite: Reimann, L., Eilander, D., Tiggeloven, T., Vuckovic, M., Kummu, M., Vajda, A., Pal, J. S., Mazzoleni, M., Wetterhal, F., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: A living, community-led metadata catalog of geospatial data for climate risk assessments: an introduction to Climate Risk STAC, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5981, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5981, 2025.

EGU25-6138 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.1

Top-down or bottom-up in earthquake exposure modeling: a comparison of aggregated and building-by-building models 

Laurens Jozef Nicolaas Oostwegel, Tara Evaz Zadeh, Danijel Schorlemmer, and Philippe Gueguen

Earthquake building exposure models are descriptions of the type, monetary values and inhabitants existing in a determined geographical area. Building stock models, or aggregated exposure models, summarize these key values on a regional level and are an established part of the risk assessment chain. They exist on a continental (e.g. ESRM20 in Europe; SARA in South America) or a global scale (e.g. GEM Global Exposure Model; PAGER; GED4GEM). Such models are created from a combination of cadaster information, national statistics, built area proxies, census data and/or local expert knowledge. In each country the processing method (therefore the model) differs, based on the level and type of information available. The input information for aggregated exposure models may be outdated for regions that experience rapid developments, as national data collection as censuses take a large amount of effort and are only conducted every five to ten years.

The advent of global building footprint models through artificial intelligence (Open Buildings; Global ML Building Footprints) and the slow but steady increase of building footprint coverage in OpenStreetMap have provided opportunities to model key values from bottom-up. Such model is able to keep the global scale, but considers individual buildings rather than district totals. For each building, the maximum amount of information is gathered, based on the dataset itself and other global datasets containing relevant values (such as height or occupancy type). Structural, monetary and population values can be added based on the relative occurence of building types in the aggregated models. An example is the ’model of European buildings’.

Inevitably, a switch from a top-down to a bottom-up approach to exposure modeling brings advantages and disadvantages, apart from the obvious increase of resolution to the individual building scale that comes with building-by-building models. We have taken three case studies and compared the strengths and weaknesses of each of the approaches, such as building (type), population and monetary value distribution, recentness of the data and total floor space size. The findings help to identify future directions for exposure modeling and aim to find the best approach to capture the dynamic nature of the built environment.

How to cite: Oostwegel, L. J. N., Evaz Zadeh, T., Schorlemmer, D., and Gueguen, P.: Top-down or bottom-up in earthquake exposure modeling: a comparison of aggregated and building-by-building models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6138, 2025.

EGU25-7211 | ECS | Orals | NH9.1 | Highlight

Increasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling 

Alessio Ciullo, Eric Strobl, Simona Meiler, Olivia Martius, and David N. Bresch

Extreme weather events like tropical cyclones and floods severely impact economies, causing growth losses, tax revenue declines, and increased government debt due to short-term deficit financing. This challenge is particularly acute for countries with existing debt issues, which often rely on slow and uncertain foreign aid whose terms are typically agreed upon only ex-post. In contrast, ex-ante financial instruments, such as insurance and sovereign catastrophe risk pools, offer faster, more predictable funding while encouraging risk reduction and adaptation investments.

Sovereign risk pools, such as the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), African Risk Capacity (ARC), and Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI), have proven valuable. However, they may not fully realize their financial resilience potential, as pooling within the same region can limit risk diversification. This presentation will introduce a method to design risk pools by maximizing diversification across countries regardless of region. Results show this approach consistently enhances risk diversification, more evenly distributes risk shares within the pool, and increases the number of benefiting countries.

Related publication:

Ciullo, A., Strobl, E., Meiler, S. et al. Increasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling. Nat Commun 14, 922 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36539-4

How to cite: Ciullo, A., Strobl, E., Meiler, S., Martius, O., and Bresch, D. N.: Increasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7211, 2025.

EGU25-8694 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.1

Process-based evaluation of flood events across global water models 

Nirmal Kularathne, Thorsten Wagener, Robert Reinecke, Larisa Tarasova, Hannes Müller Schmied, and Lina Stein

Global hydrological models are valuable tools to predict flood hazard across data-scarce regions and future climate scenarios. Their ability to create spatially coherent projections means their results are broadly used for scientific analysis and policy planning. However, the complexity of the models, coupled with the high volume of data they generate, poses significant challenges in evaluating the process representation contained within the models. Existing analysis show, how a model transfers input into output varies strongly between global water models in a long-term analysis. Yet, flood event prediction needs to take place at daily or higher temporal resolution. Are global hydrological models able to accurately represent flood generation? And do they accurately combine different flood-generating processes, such as extreme rainfall, snowmelt, or wet antecedent conditions, into extreme flows?

In this analysis, we compare simulations from five global hydrological models. The models are part of the global water sector within the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). In ISIMIP, all models are run with the same forcing data, on a daily resolution from 1901 to 2019. We extract and compare runoff time series across the 67400 land cells. For each cell, a threshold-based flood event extraction allows calculation of flood duration, magnitude, number of extreme events, etc. Additionally, we use the extracted events to compare model inputs, such as precipitation, or model fluxes, such as snowmelt, that contribute to high-flow generation.

Five models (CWatM, H08, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE, WaterGAP2), with four input variables and fluxes (precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, and snowmelt) at daily resolution over 67400 land cells results in 58 billion data points to analyse. Extracting this process-based statistical information from the model data reduces the dimensionality and scope of the high-resolution data to a form where comparison between models is possible. How do high flow statistics compare between models? Does the same extreme rainfall result in extreme flow across all models? What role does snowmelt and soil moisture play in runoff generation between models? These questions support an evaluation of flood events within global models through process-based model intercomparison.  

How to cite: Kularathne, N., Wagener, T., Reinecke, R., Tarasova, L., Schmied, H. M., and Stein, L.: Process-based evaluation of flood events across global water models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8694, 2025.

EGU25-10655 | ECS | Orals | NH9.1

Amplified potential global economic impacts from climate change due to spatially compounding climate extremes 

Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne

Despite growing evidence that climate extreme events significantly affect local economies, the implications of cross-regional and planetary-scale dependencies in climate extremes remain inadequately understood. This study demonstrates the importance of linking the projected increase in spatially compounding hot, wet, and dry extremes to their economic impacts. Utilizing Earth System Model projections from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we analyse how planetary-scale and cross-regional dependencies amplify regional disparities in economic value under enhanced global warming. Regions with lower present-day economic wealth are disproportionately exposed to extreme events occurring concurrently with other areas, heightening threats to economic stability. This research illustrates how spatially compounding climate extremes can amplify global and regional consequences, with enhanced greenhouse gas forcing exacerbating regional disparities in economic inequalities.

The study underscores the necessity of considering climate extremes' impacts beyond local scales, requiring an assessment of cross-regional exposures and a deeper understanding of the links between localized impacts and global economic dynamics. Enhanced global warming impacts the association of events across regions, challenging traditional risk diversification strategies. Global catastrophe pooling has been suggested as a means to improve financial resilience; however, intercontinental concurrent exposure, especially to heavy precipitation events in low- to middle-income regions, may limit its effectiveness. Supra-continental economic exposure to climate extremes is also projected to rise, emphasizing the need to evaluate which regions could be included in effective pooling mechanisms. Policy coordination and international cooperation are vital, as spatially compounding climate extreme events demand joint recovery efforts, resource sharing, and comprehensive contingency planning. It is therefore critical that investors and insurers consider the likelihood of concurrent events across multiple regions to manage risks effectively and ensure financial stability.

How to cite: Biess, B., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Amplified potential global economic impacts from climate change due to spatially compounding climate extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10655, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10655, 2025.

Understanding the drivers of disaster outcomes and identifying hotspots of social vulnerability requires datasets that integrate societal impacts, physical hazards, and human exposure. However, widely used international disaster databases, such as the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), often lack detailed information on hazard characteristics and population exposure. This limits their utility for comprehensive risk assessments and interdisciplinary research.

We present SHEDIS, an open-access family of datasets addressing this gap by linking disaster impact records from EM-DAT with subnational data on hazard metrics, human exposure, and disaster locations. The first module, SHEDIS-Temperature, focuses on temperature-related disasters occurring from 1979 to 2018, encompassing 382 events across 2,836 subnational locations in 71 countries. This dataset provides high-resolution hazard metrics derived from 0.1°, 3-hourly meteorological data, including absolute indicators such as apparent temperature (accounting for humidity and wind) and percentile-based thresholds to identify extreme temperature events. Population exposure is quantified using annually interpolated population maps, with metrics such as person-days of exposure to hazardous temperatures. Outputs are aggregated at both the impact record-level and administrative unit-level, offering flexibility for varied analytical needs.

Future expansions of SHEDIS will incorporate additional hazard types, further supporting global-scale risk assessments and practical applications. By providing detailed, subnational hazard and exposure data linked to disaster impacts, SHEDIS enables more nuanced analyses to advance international disaster science, inform resilience strategies, and contribute to disaster risk reduction.

How to cite: Lindersson, S. and Messori, G.: SHEDIS: Linking Subnational Hazard and Exposure information with DISaster impact records for international risk analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11199, 2025.

EGU25-12674 | Posters on site | NH9.1

Natural hazards from mud volcanoes: importance of understanding and acceptance by example of Azerbaijan   

Tofig Rashidov, Dadash Huseynov, and Turkan Mamishova

Mud volcanism is the unique global geological phenomenon generally expresses in transportation of clayey masses and rock fragments from the deep underground to the day surface via the feeder channels, mostly developed within the Alpine-Himalayan (Mediterranean) and the Pacific Ocean folded belts. Azerbaijan is considered as the world most concentration province hosting over 350 onshore and offshore mud volcanoes. Some of them can fall into the category of hazardous natural objects and characterized by expressive and catastrophic eruptions with belch, ground subsidence, cracks and faults formation and extensive flows of liquid mud and leading to destructive consequences.

According to The Federal Emergency Management Agency the natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, avalanches, landslides, tornados, tropical cyclones, etc.) represent the environmental phenomena potentially affecting the various societies and human life and property in particular, causing loss of lives and properties damage. The National Risk Index includes 18 types of the natural hazards, including magmatic volcanic activity. Unfortunately, mud volcanoes are not considered as the natural hazard in spite of recorded historical and modern evidences.

One of the most remarkable and destructive mud eruptions had occurred in 2006 in Java (Indonesia), known at present as "Lusi". The result of eruption were the mudflows eventually buried dwelling houses, private businesses, roads, communications and forced nearly 60,000 people to leave their homes. Another recent eruption had taken place in the southern Taiwan in 2024 in Wandan mud volcano with some flames of about 30 m and 50 m high that damaged nearby power cables so the electricity had been cut to prevent the further crucial problems in power system.

In Azerbaijan, a fair number of mud volcanoes erupting with gas ignition, great belches and thick mud flows. However, for the present study four remarkable mud volcanoes had been selected as the potential sources of the natural hazard affecting the environment and human life and activities. These mud volcanoes are Lokbatan, Shikhzarli, Kechaldag and Keyreki. As well as being often-erupting volcanoes (except Kechaldag) they locate in specific areas. So, Lokbatan locates within the operating oil field with relevant infrastructure while Shikhzarli lies in the vicinity of the village. Both of them erupt with gas ignition and great belch. The only eruption of Kechaldag mud volcano had affected the hydraulic constriction since it locates at the shore of Jeyranbatan water reservoir. Keyreki mud volcano is surrounded by dense development is unsafe to urban houses located in extreme vicinity

The mentioned cases in Azerbaijan and beyond demonstrate destructive and catastrophic nature of the geological phenomenon expressed in fire, thick mud flows, volcanic bombs, ground cracks, landslides and soil subsidence. All these concomitant effects can affect and damage the nearby territories. The chaotic residential development nearby these natural objects increases by several times the risk of negative effects and impacts upon the human in case of eruption. A special attention should be paid to infrastructure (residential and industrial) as well as the various types of communications laid and running at a short distance from a mud volcano.

How to cite: Rashidov, T., Huseynov, D., and Mamishova, T.: Natural hazards from mud volcanoes: importance of understanding and acceptance by example of Azerbaijan  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12674, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12674, 2025.

EGU25-12825 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.1

A global model to explain drought occurrence and damage 

Inga Sauer, Annika Günther, Katja Frieler, Sandra Zimmermann, and Christian Otto

Droughts are among the costliest natural hazards, ranked third after storms and floods globally. Furthermore, they often cause enormous indirect impacts such as famines. Understanding the occurrence of economic drought impacts is a challenging task due to their slow onset, vast spatial extent and long duration. Besides meteorological conditions, drought occurrence strongly depends upon local human water management interventions such as irrigation and water withdrawal altering vulnerability. Additionally, identifying drought vulnerable assets and their temporal development presents a major challenge as they strongly depend on the regional socio-economic structure. In order to attribute historical drought damage and to project future drought risk, a deeper understanding of changes in drought exposure, vulnerability, and the damage-intensity relationship is required. Previous damage functions neglect that intense physical drought conditions do not always translate into a damage event. Therefore, we develop a two-step approach that i) estimates the likelihood of event occurrence from the physical conditions and ii) establishes a damage-intensity relationship. We test the explanatory power of common drought indicators such as the standardized precipitation-evapotransporation index (SPEI), soil moisture, and low river flow to reconstruct historical time series of drought damage reported by EM-DAT and NatCatSERVICE, globally. The drought indicators are derived from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project round 3a and vary in their modeling complexity. While SPEI is based on mere climate reanalysis data, soil moisture is derived from global hydrological models and low river flow from their output coupled with the hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood. We find that the suitability of drought indicators for damage reconstruction varies regionally. While low river flow may be applied in Europe for damage reconstruction, SPEI and soil moisture are more reliable predictors for most world regions. The explanatory power of the model shows strong regional variations, depending also on the quality of observational data. Observed damage can be well reproduced in regions such as Latin America and South East-Asia, but the model fails to reproduce damage time series in North Africa and Central Asia. We show that both modeling steps are necessary to reproduce observed drought damage and that the likelihood of event occurrence as well as the damage ratio increase under more intense physical drought conditions. Omitting the likelihood-intensity relationship may lead to an overestimation of historical drought damage, which is used as a reference in attribution and projection studies. As reproducing observed damage is indispensable for sound attribution studies, the two-step approach may allow us to better account for non-linear changes in drought impacts under climate change.

How to cite: Sauer, I., Günther, A., Frieler, K., Zimmermann, S., and Otto, C.: A global model to explain drought occurrence and damage, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12825, 2025.

EGU25-14214 * | Posters on site | NH9.1 | Highlight

A Europe-wide Tourism Destination Socioeconomic Risk Model for Natural and Human-made Perils 

James Daniell, Andreas Schaefer, Johannes Brand, Jacob Daniell, Annika Maier, Bijan Khazai, Trevor Girard, Roberth Romero, Judith Claassen, Nikita Strelkovskii, Benjamin Blanz, Jonas Ascherl, Christopher Mardell, and Simon Michalke

The tourism and travel industry is one of the key economic sectors across Europe, contributing ca.10% GDP yearly (with indirect and induced effects) equating to just under 2 trillion EUR. During COVID-19, the major negative effects on domestic and international tourism were a wake-up call to hotels, hospitality and the destinations to become more resilient to not only biological shocks but all manner of disasters in the wake of climate change and increasing climatic peril effects in many locations.

As part of the Hotel Resilient Initiative and in the MYRIAD-EU project, extensive analysis of the tourism sector has been undertaken for Europe in order to characterise the locations, values, and types of assets at risk for the tourism sector in spatial and temporal systems.

An analysis is made in this study for hotels and their destinations in Europe, to examine the sectoral risk to natural (geophysical, hydrological, and meteorological) and human-made perils in order to examine which locations are most at risk of financial direct damage now, and in 2050 for selected perils. Quantitative outputs are produced showing the most at risk locations in each country and across Europe.

In addition, where quantitative metrics could not be produced with great certainty, a tool has been produced giving a multi-risk vulnerability index in order to view and adjust the importance of different tourism indicators such as domestic and international expenditure, employment, tourism stays, attractions at a NUTS-3 EU level. The evaluation of the disaster types affecting it allows for a semi-quantitative view of the impacting factors on the locations, giving additional insights into the effects for the tourism industry.

It is found that hydro-meteorological perils have an increasing influence throughout Eastern Europe with the effects of climate change with yearly damages often exceeding 1 bn EUR. Geophysical perils such as earthquakes cause major singular shocks to locations, often taking years for the tourism industry to recover, especially across the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. Drought, heat and water stress however is starting to cause major issues to the industry as seen in Spain last year.  

The loss outputs from this study will support further development of the Hotel and Destination Resilient Scorecards being produced in various locations across Europe.

How to cite: Daniell, J., Schaefer, A., Brand, J., Daniell, J., Maier, A., Khazai, B., Girard, T., Romero, R., Claassen, J., Strelkovskii, N., Blanz, B., Ascherl, J., Mardell, C., and Michalke, S.: A Europe-wide Tourism Destination Socioeconomic Risk Model for Natural and Human-made Perils, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14214, 2025.

EGU25-14847 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.1

Disparities of flood exposure across population profiles in Southeast Asia 

Mengmeng Li and Shiqiang Du

Flooding poses significant risks to human population, particularly in vulnerable regions such as Southeast Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how flood exposure varies across different population profiles, despite its critical importance in risk adaption and mitigation. This study addresses this gap by assessing flood exposure in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, with a specific focus on population distribution by gender and age groups. Our analysis reveals that while the absolute number of older adults exposed to flooding is relatively low compared to other age groups, the proportion of older adults affected is significantly higher. Overall, approximately 39% of individuals aged 65 and above are exposed to flood hazards, compared to 37% for total population. Gender differences in exposure are also observed, with women aged 80 and above exhibits the highest exposure percentage 42%. Furthermore, this study highlights the limitations of national-scale assessments in capturing localized disparities in flood exposure. For instance, while the overall exposure in Thailand may appear moderate at 40%, five provinces show disproportionally high exposure rates that exceed 95%, and Gini coefficients therein are also higher than national average, suggesting a larger disparity in flood exposure across demographic groups. These findings underscore the importance of subnational analyses in identifying vulnerable population and informing targeted adaptation strategies that address the specific vulnerabilities of older adults and other at-risk groups.

How to cite: Li, M. and Du, S.: Disparities of flood exposure across population profiles in Southeast Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14847, 2025.

EGU25-15348 | Posters on site | NH9.1

Towards an Open Online Database of Empirical Evidence of Multi-Hazard Vulnerabilty and Risk Dynamics 

Philip Ward, Wiebke Jäger, Tristian Stolte, Marleen de Rutier, Timothy Tiggeloven, Kelley De Polt, Sophie Buijs, Judith Claassen, Nicole van Maanen, Davide Ferreira, Ngoc Diep Nguyen, Maria Katherina Dal Barco, Julius Schlumberger, Silvia Torressan, Rene Orth, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, and Lara Smale

Risk drivers, are non-static, including long-term trends as well as short-term changes. These can, for example, arise due to interactions from multiple hazards or as side-effects of risk reduction measures that address one hazard but neglect others. While dynamics of hazard and exposure and are increasingly being recognised and incorporated into (large scale) risk modelling, evidence and approaches for vulnerability dynamics are still lacking.   

Within the MYRIAD-EU project we have collected empirical evidence of dynamics of vulnerability and other risk drivers, accounting for a multi-hazard setting, and developed methods to represent them in forward-looking risk models. Here, we present a new open online database that structures this information and aims to provide a comprehensive overview of (openly available) data and methods for both researchers and practitioners. The database is designed to include a diverse range of data types and methods including qualitative as well as quantitative approaches and ranging from local to global scale. To keep the database updated and comprehensive, it has been designed as a living catalogue and invites community contributions.

We welcome feedback on the database and invite participants to suggest other datasets and methods that could be included.  

How to cite: Ward, P., Jäger, W., Stolte, T., de Rutier, M., Tiggeloven, T., De Polt, K., Buijs, S., Claassen, J., van Maanen, N., Ferreira, D., Nguyen, N. D., Dal Barco, M. K., Schlumberger, J., Torressan, S., Orth, R., Daniell, J., Duncan, M., and Smale, L.: Towards an Open Online Database of Empirical Evidence of Multi-Hazard Vulnerabilty and Risk Dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15348, 2025.

EGU25-16071 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.1

Coastal Risk Management in Europe: Methods and preliminary results of the CoCliCo Project 

Vincent Bascoul, Rémi Thiéblemont, Jeremy Rohmer, Elco Koks, Joël De Plaen, Daniel Lincke, Hedda Bonatz, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Paul Sayers, Robert J. Nicholls, Alexandra Toimil, and Gonéri Le Cozannet

Coastal flooding, both current and future, is a significant concern for Europe due to sea level rise, storms, and the exposure of critical infrastructure in low-lying coastal zones. To support adaptation efforts, it is essential to have information on future risks, including people and infrastructure at risks and potential economic damages. One of the objectives of the CoCliCo project is to address this need by providing new coastal risks assessments in Europe using state of the art coastal hazard, exposure and vulnerability datasets and information, including dynamic flood hazard assessment and new maps of infrastructures at risk.

This study first presents the risk assessment methodology used for the CoCliCo platform, which is divided into two parts. The first part focuses on physical risks, evaluating the number and area of infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding, as well as the potential costs of these damages. Cost calculations are based on vulnerability curves that take water depths into account, to accurately estimate damage for each infrastructure type. The second part concerns the assessment of the number of people exposed to coastal flooding, based on downscaled demographic projections. This study is conducted at the European scale, using simulations of coastal flooding for events with annual, centennial and millenial return periods, at various time points and under different socio-economic scenarios.

Preliminary results indicate that e.g. around 200,000 persons and 1.2 Billion euros are exposed to centennial flood events along the coasts of Europe (preliminary results based on the analysis of around 60% of the European coastal flood plains). In a virtual scenario in which current coastal protection would be suddenly removed, these figures increase by a factor of 50 to 100. Without further adaptation, people exposed to a centennial storm are projected to increase by 400% in 2050 while assets at risks increase by about 250%. Beyond 2050, results depend on future land use planning decisions and relocations within and outside the low elevation coastal zone. Despite their uncertainties due to e.g. the 25m resolution digital elevation model used to perform coastal flood simulations and the lack of precise and site specific information on coastal protection, these preliminary results remind the benefits of adaptation, the importance of maintaining current defenses to prevent large disasters and the need for further coastal adaptation decisions (including protection, accommodation and relocation, including with nature based solutions) in the coming years and decades. The results will be made available on the CoCliCo platform.

How to cite: Bascoul, V., Thiéblemont, R., Rohmer, J., Koks, E., De Plaen, J., Lincke, D., Bonatz, H., T. Vafeidis, A., Sayers, P., J. Nicholls, R., Toimil, A., and Le Cozannet, G.: Coastal Risk Management in Europe: Methods and preliminary results of the CoCliCo Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16071, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16071, 2025.

EGU25-17817 | Posters on site | NH9.1 | Highlight

Developing a multi-hazard impact and response dataset for the Global South 

Mariana Madruga de Brito, Ana Maria Rotaru, Jingxian Wang, Gabriela Gesualdo, Laura Hasbini, Luca Severino, and Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho

Multi-hazard global disaster and impact datasets are often biased towards the Global North, resulting in significant data gaps for developing countries. To address this imbalance, we developed a new dataset by automatically analyzing the reports from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). These reports document immediate aid, recovery, and resilience-building in the aftermath of disasters, targeting mainly countries in the Global South. From the 1,664 reports spanning 1996 and 2024 years, we identified 620 unique disasters affecting 143 different locations (39% in Asia, 16% in Africa, 18% in the Americas, 7% in Europe, 4% in Oceania). Using natural language processing, large language models, and machine learning, we extracted structured information on (i) the direct and indirect societal and environmental impacts and (ii) the response measures taken to address these disasters. Our approach captures a broad range of impacts, from traditional metrics like fatalities and economic losses to displacement, health, and well-being. Using guided topic modelling, we developed a typology of response measures, categorized into ten main classes (e.g., Healthcare and Medical Response, Shelter and Infrastructure Support, and Community Engagement and Communication). Our results show that hazard impacts in the Global South are much more diverse than previously reported in global databases. Moreover, preliminary results on the response measures characterization reveal notable geographical and hazard-specific biases. Our approach bridges critical data gaps, providing a more nuanced understanding of disaster impacts and responses, which is particularly valuable for informing and enhancing disaster risk reduction efforts in the Global South.

How to cite: Madruga de Brito, M., Rotaru, A. M., Wang, J., Gesualdo, G., Hasbini, L., Severino, L., and Nunes Carvalho, T. M.: Developing a multi-hazard impact and response dataset for the Global South, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17817, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17817, 2025.

EGU25-18044 | Posters on site | NH9.1

Strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction for natural hazards in Central Asia: methodological framework and results 

Paola Ceresa, Paolo Bazzurro, Stefano Parolai, Valerio Poggi, Chiara Scaini, Gianbattista Bussi, Ettore Fagà, Gabriele Coccia, Antonella Peresan, Darío Luna, Gerardo Rubio, Mario Ordaz, Mario A. Salgado G., Carlos Avelar, and Sergey Tyagunov

It is widely acknowledged that the majority of regions worldwide are susceptible to a range of potentially catastrophic natural hazards. Achieving a comprehensive estimation of the aggregate losses incurred by these diverse hazards necessitates the implementation of a multifaceted, tiered risk assessment approach, underpinned by harmonised methodologies, in accordance with the provisions outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). This methodological framework facilitates the direct comparability of risk estimates, thereby providing a foundational basis for the formulation of decisions concerning balanced and cost-effective mitigation and preparedness strategies that adequately address risk prioritisation. The Central Asian region, which has a documented history of seismic activity, fluvial flooding and landslides, is a pertinent case study. In an effort to support the process of risk mitigation in this region, the European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), launched the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, targeting the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

In this context, the present work delineates the methodological framework and presents the results of the multi-hazard risk assessment carried out in the Central Asian region. These results are expressed in the form of probabilistic metrics pertaining to earthquake and flood loss estimates, including annual average losses, loss exceedance curves and return period specific losses. These metrics represent the basis for further technical recommendations, which are designed to support future disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) strategies in the region.

How to cite: Ceresa, P., Bazzurro, P., Parolai, S., Poggi, V., Scaini, C., Bussi, G., Fagà, E., Coccia, G., Peresan, A., Luna, D., Rubio, G., Ordaz, M., Salgado G., M. A., Avelar, C., and Tyagunov, S.: Strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction for natural hazards in Central Asia: methodological framework and results, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18044, 2025.

EGU25-20714 | Orals | NH9.1

Climate adaptation for politicians: shocking a macroeconomic model with stochastic natural disaster impacts 

Chris Fairless, David Daou, and Negar Mohammadiamanab

Historically, much of natural disaster impact modelling has focussed on the damage to private assets. But to a government decision-maker it is not always clear how impacts to individual assets translate into a cost to the national economy. Understanding this important for adaptation decision-making: which communities are resilient enough to withstand and recover from disasters? When is a disaster large enough to have regional or national knock-on effects? What is the long-term, compounding economic cost of inaction?

In collaboration with the Thai and Egyptian governments, we have prototyped a coupling between an open-source probabilistic disaster impact model (CLIMADA) and an open-source macroeconomic model (DGE-CRED). We present a modelling framework and codebase designed for more data-scarce environments, where data and modelling can be collected and iterated on in the space of weeks or months.

The coupled model starts with publicly available, open-source data (with their known limitations). Data and insights from local partners are then critical to calibrate and enhance the data. The model creates thousands of plausible future timelines of shocks from natural disasters (fluvial flood, heatwave and drought), models their impacts on the economic sectors of most interest to our partners (agriculture, manufacturing, energy, tourism/services), and simulates their short- and long-term macroeconomic impacts (on e.g. GDP, employment rates, prices, well-being indicators) and, guided by local knowledge, the benefits of different adaptation measures.

How to cite: Fairless, C., Daou, D., and Mohammadiamanab, N.: Climate adaptation for politicians: shocking a macroeconomic model with stochastic natural disaster impacts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20714, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20714, 2025.

EGU25-21201 | Orals | NH9.1

Unveiling global humanscapes: harmonised subnational socio-economic datasets for understanding societal changes and enhancing risk assessments 

Matti Kummu, Xander Huggins, Daniel Chrisendo, Venla Niva, Veera Saarenheimo, Vilma Sandström, and Sina Masoumzadeh Sayyar

One of the bottlenecks in global risk assessment studies is the lack of global sub-national socio-economic datasets spanning the past decades. To bridge this gap, we have compiled 12 global sub-national socio-economic datasets covering cultural diversity, economic conditions, demographics, equity, governance, health, and social well-being. These datasets form a harmonised global socio-economic data cube with annual data for 1990-2021. The data is with either a gridded or sub-national level resolution, except for political stability, which is available only at the national level.

We further introduce 'humanscapes,' a novel concept designed to capture complex socio-economic realities at a sub-national level. Humanscapes reflect the interplay of these different datasets, covering over 28,000 administrative units, and are analysed using self-organising maps (SOM) to highlight unique sub-national characteristics. Humanscapes offer a refined method for understanding and mapping societal changes.

Our socio-economic data cube enhances precision in global and continental risk assessments by providing comprehensive socio-economic contexts previously unavailable. It thus opens new possibilities in assessing vulnerability to natural hazards on a global scale, aligning with frameworks like the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement.

How to cite: Kummu, M., Huggins, X., Chrisendo, D., Niva, V., Saarenheimo, V., Sandström, V., and Masoumzadeh Sayyar, S.: Unveiling global humanscapes: harmonised subnational socio-economic datasets for understanding societal changes and enhancing risk assessments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21201, 2025.

EGU25-1090 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

Evolution of meteorological drought characteristics over India using time-varying drought index 

Debankana Bhattacharjee, Vinnarasi Rajendran, and Chandrika Thulaseedharan Dhanya

With approximately 28% of India's geographical area affected by droughts and a significant portion experiencing moderate to severe conditions, it is crucial to analyze these phenomena to assess their socio-economic impacts and develop effective policy responses. This study delves into the complexities of drought characteristics in India, emphasizing the need for advanced analytical methods to understand the evolving nature of droughts under changing climate conditions. From 1902 to 2013, the evolution of four essential drought characteristics: severity, depth, duration, and frequency has been examined across various climate zones. The analysis utilizes gridded precipitation datasets to compare outcomes from conventional Stationary Precipitation Indices (SPI) with a non-stationary, time-varying drought index aimed at offering a more sophisticated comprehension of drought dynamics and their socio-economic consequences. Furthermore, a non-linear trend analysis method has been implemented to identify the intrinsic complexities and non-linear correlations in drought data that conventional techniques tend to overlook.

The results indicate considerable geographical and temporal variations in drought dynamics. Central and southern India experience prolonged drought episodes, while areas like the Indo-Gangetic Plains and western India see shorter yet more severe droughts. The results further underscore the shortcomings of stationarity-based indices, which tend to overestimate drought severity and duration, especially in earlier decades. In contrast, the non-stationary index identifies subtle trends, indicating both gradual and sudden shifts in climatic patterns.

This study reveals critical hotspots of heightened drought risk, illustrating the increasing effects of hydroclimatic extremes in areas predominantly dependent on agriculture and monsoonal precipitation. By enhancing the accuracy of drought assessments and their spatial-temporal variability, the need for region-specific climate adaptation and mitigation strategies has been highlighted. The findings thereby contribute to the broader discourse that underscores the necessity of integrating evolving climate dynamics into future drought projections to tackle the increasing problems posed by hydroclimatic extremes in a rapidly changing environment.

How to cite: Bhattacharjee, D., Rajendran, V., and Dhanya, C. T.: Evolution of meteorological drought characteristics over India using time-varying drought index, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1090, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1090, 2025.

EGU25-1529 | Orals | NH9.4

Impacts of Mediterranean snow droughts on mountain socio-ecohydrology 

Francesco Avanzi, Stefano Terzi, Mariapina Castelli, Francesca Munerol, Margherita Andreaggi, Marta Galvagno, Tessa Maurer, Christian Massari, Grace Carlson, Manuela Girotto, Giacomo Bertoldi, Edoardo Cremonese, Simone Gabellani, Marco Altamura, Lauro Rossi, and Claudia Notarnicola

Snow droughts are increasingly recognized as an important feature of dry periods in mountain regions worldwide. While the phenomenology of this hazard is becoming clearer, its implications for hydrology, ecosystems, and upstream and downstream communities remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap leaves scientists and decision-makers without the necessary tools to support adaptation in the face of accelerating climate change and declining, increasingly ephemeral snow water resources. Leveraging 13 years of hydrological and multi-sectoral impact data from over 30 headwater catchments across Italy, we demonstrate how snow droughts impose profound and cascading impacts on mountain socio-ecological systems, from seasonal to multi-annual scales, with downstream repercussions. Early findings reveal that snow droughts can increase melt-out events and reduce snow season duration compared to non-snow-drought years. These changes result in significant hydrological consequences, even in the absence of differences in summer precipitation or air temperature between snow-drought and non-snow-drought years. Beyond hydrology, snow droughts impact vegetation productivity and lead to emergency measures in water-resource management for end users, with effects shaped by the spatial and temporal characteristics of water-supply infrastructure. This study highlights the need to frame snow droughts as a socio-ecohydrological risk, with broad implications for water security in mountain regions and downstream areas. 

How to cite: Avanzi, F., Terzi, S., Castelli, M., Munerol, F., Andreaggi, M., Galvagno, M., Maurer, T., Massari, C., Carlson, G., Girotto, M., Bertoldi, G., Cremonese, E., Gabellani, S., Altamura, M., Rossi, L., and Notarnicola, C.: Impacts of Mediterranean snow droughts on mountain socio-ecohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1529, 2025.

EGU25-2379 | Posters on site | NH9.4

Super Drought: An Innovative Framework for Understanding Compound Drought Risk with Online Monitoring Platform 

Lin Wang, Gang Huang, Wen Chen, and Ting Wang

    Different types of drought, characterized by their distinct temporal scales, often interact in complex ways and pose significant challenges for drought risk assessment and management. This study introduces the innovative concept of "super drought", which refers to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts across multiple time scales, advancing our understanding of compound drought risks. We demonstrate that super drought represents a unique phenomenon where meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts coincide, leading to more severe impacts than when these events occur in isolation.

    To quantify super drought, we developed the Comprehensive Multiscalar Index (CMI) based on a vine copula framework. This novel approach overcomes the limitations of traditional drought indices by probabilistically integrating drought conditions across multiple time scales (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month). The CMI was validated against GRACE satellite-based total water storage observations, showing significantly improved performance in capturing overall water deficits compared to conventional indices.

    To support operational drought monitoring and research, we developed superdrought.com as the first online platform dedicated to global super drought assessment. The platform provides: (1) near-real-time global monitoring at 0.5° resolution, (2) interactive visualization tools with customizable temporal and spatial analysis capabilities, and (3) free access to historical CMI datasets from 1961 to present. This comprehensive system enables users to track the evolution of compound drought events and assess their spatial patterns and temporal dynamics.

    This integrated framework of concept, methodology, and operational platform represents a significant advancement in drought risk assessment. By highlighting that the most devastating droughts often result from the synchronization of water deficits across multiple components of the hydrological cycle, our approach provides new insights for drought risk assessment and early warning systems, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches in drought monitoring and management. 

How to cite: Wang, L., Huang, G., Chen, W., and Wang, T.: Super Drought: An Innovative Framework for Understanding Compound Drought Risk with Online Monitoring Platform, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2379, 2025.

EGU25-4794 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

Spatiotemporal Mapping of Drought Impacts Across Continents: A Cluster-Based Approach 

Alok Samantaray and Gabriele Messori

Drought events pose significant challenges to ecosystems and human societies, necessitating precise methodologies for their identification and analysis. This study introduces a clustering technique to establish a robust framework for identifying drought objects. The identification process incorporates spatial proximity metrics, Haversine distance calculations, and periodic boundary handling to detect coherent drought-affected regions. Drought objects are further refined by applying a land-sea mask to exclude oceanic areas and merging small-scale clusters to maintain relevance. The study highlights the value of tracking drought objects over time and the critical insights this provides into the spatio-temporal dynamics of droughts.

The methodology enables a dynamic understanding of drought patterns, producing outputs such as high-resolution cluster maps with spatial characteristics, including the severity and area of each cluster. These characteristics are developed using drought events reported in the Geocoded Disasters (GDIS) dataset and are linked to the impact data, such as the number of people affected and economic damage caused by the events. These findings are vital for disaster risk reduction, climate impact studies, and policy-making. By integrating spatial analysis with the clustering, this study provides a comprehensive and reproducible approach to linking the geographical extent and intensity of drought events to their impacts.

How to cite: Samantaray, A. and Messori, G.: Spatiotemporal Mapping of Drought Impacts Across Continents: A Cluster-Based Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4794, 2025.

EGU25-7559 | Posters on site | NH9.4

Study on the assessment of socio-economic potential losses due to water shortages  

Youngseok Song and Moojong Park

The recent arrival of the climate crisis has led to a shortage of water for living, industry, and agriculture due to drought. This occurrence has an economic impact on various social sectors, and if it continues for a long period of time, it leads to a decrease in socio-economic activities. Consequently, the socio-economic impact of water shortages has emerged as a pivotal research area. By identifying the socio-economic potential losses due to water use in various industries, we can develop strategies for an effective water distribution system.In light of intensifying climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to rise. These droughts are expected to have negative socio-economic impacts in the order of weather, agriculture, life, and industry.In this study, we aim to develop an evaluation technique for socio-economic potential losses due to water shortages in South Korea.Based on the evaluation technique, we intend to assess how much socio-economic potential loss is caused by water shortages in the areas of living, industry, and agriculture. The selected evaluation method is the WIOLP analysis technique of the industry-related analysis, and the analysis was conducted for the years 2015 and 2018, when drought damage occurred in the Republic of Korea. In 2015, it was estimated that a 10% reduction in water usage due to drought would result in damages amounting to approximately 257.9 billion won. A 90% reduction, on the other hand, was predicted to lead to widespread industry-wide damage. In 2018, if the water usage is reduced by 10% due to drought, the estimated loss is projected to be around 318.9 billion won. If usage is reduced by more than 80%, damage is likely to occur across all industries, initially affecting some sectors. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the evaluation of socio-economic potential losses due to water shortages and the assessment of water usage in each sector.

Acknowledgments: This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Water Management Program for Drought Project, funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE). (RS-2023-00230286).

 

How to cite: Song, Y. and Park, M.: Study on the assessment of socio-economic potential losses due to water shortages , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7559, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7559, 2025.

EGU25-8275 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

An Enhanced Run Theory for Agricultural Drought Characterization using Satellite Soil Moisture Data. 

Hussain Palagiri and Manali Pal

India, being an agriculture-dependent country, experiences recurrent droughts that significantly impact agricultural productivity. Assessing agricultural droughts and accurately identifying their onset is essential for effective planning and mitigation strategies. Soil Moisture (SM)-based drought indices, often paired with the run theory, are commonly used to identify the agricultural drought onsets. However, traditional run theory approaches rely on a single, uniform threshold to detect drought events, which may inadequately represent long-term drought patterns and oversimplify spatial variability in SM conditions. This study addresses these limitations by proposing an enhanced run theory approach that uses multiple dynamic grid-specific thresholds. The southern plateau and hills region of India was chosen as the study area. The thresholds are derived based on the standard deviation of the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) time series for each grid, ensuring adaptability to spatial heterogeneity of SM conditions. The SSI is calculated using European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) SM data. The enhanced run theory is then applied to compute key agricultural drought characteristics including duration, peak, frequency, and intensity.
The results reveal that the computed dynamic SSI thresholds capture subtle but notable spatial variations, reflecting the influence of grid-specific factors such as soil types and land cover. This approach enhances the accuracy of drought detection and characterization. The analysis of drought metrics reveals that drought duration and frequency share similar spatial distributions, suggesting that areas experiencing frequent droughts are also prone to prolonged drought periods. This spatial congruence highlights the consistent vulnerability of certain regions to both drought initiation and sustained impacts. Furthermore, the analysis of drought peak and intensity demonstrates a predominance of moderate drought conditions, with severe droughts occurring less frequently and extreme droughts being rare. The findings underscore the importance of dynamic, location-specific thresholds for improving drought assessment. By capturing spatial variability in SM conditions, the proposed enhanced run theory provides a robust framework for characterizing agricultural droughts.

How to cite: Palagiri, H. and Pal, M.: An Enhanced Run Theory for Agricultural Drought Characterization using Satellite Soil Moisture Data., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8275, 2025.

EGU25-9084 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

Dynamics of Persistence in Flash and Traditional Droughts across Homogeneous Rainfall Regions of India  

Akshay Pachore and Renji Remesan

Flash agricultural droughts (FDs) are defined based on the quick depletion of the crop root zone soil moisture (RZSM) which can have wide negative implications on the agricultural yield loss and associated sectors. FDs can be the sub-set of the traditional slow-developing agricultural droughts. The current study has investigated this intricate underlying interconnection over different HRRs in India for the period of 40 years (1981-2020). Traditional agricultural droughts are characterized using the monthly Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI-1) and FDs using the Standardized Anomaly of the Pentad Root Zone Soil Moisture (SASM). Further, the long-term and short-term persistence is analyzed using the MF-DFA (Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis) based Hurst index approach in both time series data of flash and traditional droughts indices which has discovered the persistence information in the flash and traditional droughts. The results of the current study have inferred that FDs have long-term persistence (LTP) in humid regions, whereas short-term persistence (STP) is characteristic of traditional droughts in the same region. For the arid and semi-arid climate, the case is reversed with FDs having the STP and traditional droughts having the LTP during the studied period of 40 years. The results of the current analysis show that the persistence in the flash and traditional droughts has a synchrony with the background climate of different HRRs of India, which highlights the varying vulnerability for both types (flash and seasonal) of droughts.

How to cite: Pachore, A. and Remesan, R.: Dynamics of Persistence in Flash and Traditional Droughts across Homogeneous Rainfall Regions of India , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9084, 2025.

EGU25-9270 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

Advancing the detection of multi-sector drought impacts via feature extraction and multi-task learning 

Martina Merlo, Matteo Giuliani, and Andrea Castelletti

Drought indices are essential tools for quantifying drought conditions by integrating multiple variables into a single measure that represents its characteristics, such as intensity, duration, and severity. These indices play a key role in real-time monitoring, forecasting, and supporting risk management actions. However, traditional statistical indices often fail to account for the complex interactions between drought precursors and their socio-economic and environmental impacts. Moreover, given the absence of a universally accepted drought definition, no single index is applicable to all drought types, climate conditions, or affected sectors.

In this study, we aim to improve traditional drought detection by defining new impact-based drought indices through Machine Learning algorithms. These indices are designed to better link the observed impacts of extreme droughts across different sectors with their potential drivers, including climatic, meteorological, and hydrological variables, analyzed across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Adda River basin, focusing on the multisectoral impacts of drought on agricultural production, hydroelectric generation, and recreational and ecosystem services.

The definition of impact-based drought indices relies on the FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis (FRIDA), which uses a feature extraction algorithm to formulate novel impact-based drought indices that combine all the relevant information about candidate drought drivers (e.g. water levels, snow depth, temperature) to reproduce the observed impacts.

Our findings indicate that FRIDA has produced indices that accurately capture the drought impacts with the Pearson correlation coefficient between observations and model’s outputs that remains consistently above 0.6, with values reaching 0.97 and 0.99 for the hydropower and recreation sectors, respectively. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the inputs selected by the algorithm vary depending on the sector being considered, shedding light on sector-specific connections between drivers and impacts. Ongoing experiments are investigating the potential for further improving our results by adopting a multi-task model for better handling the interdependencies across the impacted sectors with respect single-task models that identify individual indices independently for the different sectors.

How to cite: Merlo, M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A.: Advancing the detection of multi-sector drought impacts via feature extraction and multi-task learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9270, 2025.

EGU25-9473 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

Bridging Drought Indices and Impacts: Forecasting Future Outcomes 

Burak Bulut, Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage, Maliko Tanguy, Lucy Barker, and Jamie Hannaford

Drought events significantly challenge communities and ecosystems worldwide, emphasising the urgent need for effective predictive methods to facilitate proactive management and to mitigate their impacts. A clear gap exists between theoretical drought indices, such as SPI, SPEI, and SSMI, and the real-world impacts of droughts. This study aims to address this disparity by leveraging machine learning (ML) techniques to predict reported drought impacts, using data from the European Drought Impact Database (EDID). A variety of ML algorithms, including Random Forest, Quantile Random Forest, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, XGBoost and Linear Regression were assessed. The study also uses likelihood forecasting to quantify the probability of drought impacts. This probabilistic approach and use of lagged indices allows for a deeper understanding of the range of possible outcomes, enabling decision-makers to plan and prepare for varying levels of drought severity.
 
Unlike location-specific modelling approaches, this study proposes a generalized ML model applicable across the UK. The model's robustness was validated using independent datasets from different regions and periods. The findings indicated that categorising impacts into severity levels, rather than predicting the exact number of impacts and improved the model's accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, the model was applied at a grid scale to generate impact-based drought maps, providing a valuable tool for decision-making in drought risk management. This methodological approach enhances decision-making processes for drought risk management, demonstrating the practical utility of ML techniques that can be applied globally, beyond the UK.

How to cite: Bulut, B., Magee, E., Armitage, R., Tanguy, M., Barker, L., and Hannaford, J.: Bridging Drought Indices and Impacts: Forecasting Future Outcomes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9473, 2025.

EGU25-10520 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

Advancing drought impact data collection for the Italian Alps through automatic harvesting and analysis of textual data 

Stefano Terzi, Alessandra Pomella, Jennifer-Carmen Frey, Luigi Piemontese, Edoardo Cremonese, and Massimiliano Pittore

Research on climate extremes, particularly droughts, is largely limited by the lack of impact data. Current impact data are often sparse if not completely inaccessible or absent. This is the ongoing condition also for mountain areas, which, despite hosting important and interconnected environmental and socio-economic systems, are increasingly impacted by droughts with limited to no-data coverage.

This work explores the use of textual data from online Italian newspaper articles, blogs, and reports to collect information on drought impacts on different socio-economic sectors and regions across the Italian Alps. In particular, we developed a pipeline to create an open database of drought news reporting. We used natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically (i) extract news articles from Google News using drought-related keywords in Italian language, (ii) filter and clean the retrieved articles extracting text bodies, and (iii) classify them, identifying the impacted sectors (e.g., agriculture, hydropower, tourism) and regions. We evaluated the performance of different state-of-the-art NLP models on the chosen classification tasks (e.g., relevance to the drought topic, extraction of the impacted location) based on both standard NLP metrics and (environmental) resource consumption criteria.

Preliminary results show patterns of correspondence between the frequency of harvested drought impact news and the general trend of drought conditions in the north of Italy (e.g. maximum values of news items in summer 2022 and spring 2023). Around 60% of the collected news items were classified as relevant to the drought topic, 35% were recorded as explicitly covering drought impacts, while 15% were reported to deal with drought damages in detail. Regarding the detection of impacted sectors and locations inside news bodies, due to task complexity, selected models reported varied performance with results highly dependent on the specific news structure and context.

Overall, this study (i) presents a workflow to collect drought impact data for the Italian Alps into an open database, enabling near-real time drought impact monitoring, (ii) enriches the developed database with information on news relevance to the drought topic, documented impacts, and mentioned locations, including reliability estimates for given classifications, (iii) offers methodological guidance for future research by providing information on best performing algorithms and environmental cost criteria, (iv) has the potential for transferability to other areas, languages, or natural hazards to improve the understanding of climate extremes impacts and implement targeted and effective adaptation strategies.

How to cite: Terzi, S., Pomella, A., Frey, J.-C., Piemontese, L., Cremonese, E., and Pittore, M.: Advancing drought impact data collection for the Italian Alps through automatic harvesting and analysis of textual data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10520, 2025.

EGU25-13779 | Posters on site | NH9.4

Utilizing Satellite Data for Large-Scale Monitoring and Analysis of Flash Droughts Across the Contiguous United States  

Alireza Farahmand, Masoud Zeraati, Richard Seager, Nima Madani, Amir AghaKouchak, Yixin Wen, Hayley Fowler, Ali Mehran, and Nicholas Parazoo

Flash droughts can develop suddenly, often within just a few weeks, and are marked by rapidly depleting soil moisture and intense heat stress. These conditions can have devastating effects on crop growth and disrupt entire ecosystems. What makes flash droughts especially challenging is their tendency to occur during the peak growing season, leaving little time for the agricultural and ecological sectors to prepare or mitigate losses. While a lack of precipitation is the primary trigger, other factors like high evaporative demand, low humidity, increased solar radiation, and clear skies can intensify their onset. Since flash droughts are driven by a combination of factors, it is crucial to rely on diverse and accurate data sources to effectively monitor their development and spread.

Previous studies have largely focused on analyzing the evolution of flash droughts using reanalysis data. However, there has been no comprehensive examination of their development at large scales incorporating a wide range of satellite observations. In this study, we characterized flash droughts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using remote sensing data from 2003 to 2020. We employed a unique combination of satellite climatic, agricultural, and ecological variables, including Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), Relative Humidity (RH), Temperature, ERA5 Soil Moisture, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Precipitation, MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Evapotranspiration (ET), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover map, and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Contiguous Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (CSIF). Flash drought events were identified based on root zone soil moisture (RZSM), with all variables aggregated into 8-day (octad) averages to analyze their temporal evolution and lead-lag correlations with RZSM.

Furthermore, the deteriorating impact of flash droughts associated with background aridity needs to be considered when monitoring their agricultural and ecological impacts. To address this, we investigated ecosystem responses to flash droughts across five climate regimes defined using the Aridity Index (AI) within the CONUS. We separated agricultural lands from natural vegetation to differentiate the development of flash droughts across these distinct ecosystems. Finally, we examined the propagation timeline of flash droughts from meteorological to agricultural and ecological droughts using cross-correlation and Cross Wavelet Transform methods.

How to cite: Farahmand, A., Zeraati, M., Seager, R., Madani, N., AghaKouchak, A., Wen, Y., Fowler, H., Mehran, A., and Parazoo, N.: Utilizing Satellite Data for Large-Scale Monitoring and Analysis of Flash Droughts Across the Contiguous United States , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13779, 2025.

EGU25-14492 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

Widespread and Divergent Post-drought Loss of Gross Primary Productivity 

Zhuoyi Zhao, Weimin Ju, and Yanlian Zhou

The impacts of droughts on the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) are evident with contemporaneous and lagged effects. However, the magnitude of post-drought vegetation GPP loss remains unclear. This study quantitatively assessed the global post-drought GPP loss on the 8-day scale during 2000-2022. Globally, the mean post-drought GPP loss was ~0.74 Pg C yr⁻¹, accounting for ~ 21.45% of the total drought-induced GPP loss. The higher proportions of post-drought GPP loss were evident in humid regions, whereas the higher absolute post-drought GPP loss mainly occurred in regions with higher vegetation cover. Furthermore, the global mean incidence and duration of post-drought GPP loss were 51.23 ± 21.21% and 33.36 ± 13.27 days, respectively. The occurrence and persistence of post-drought GPP loss exhibited a consistent correlation with aridity, but an inverse relationship with vegetation composition. Our findings would contribute to a better understanding of the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought.

How to cite: Zhao, Z., Ju, W., and Zhou, Y.: Widespread and Divergent Post-drought Loss of Gross Primary Productivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14492, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14492, 2025.

EGU25-14575 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

Spatial Analysis of Drought Perceived Impacts Using Social Media Text Mining 

Jingxian Wang, Barbara Pernici, and Andrea Castelletti

Droughts affect diverse sectors, including water resources, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem stability. While indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are widely employed to measure the intensity of droughts, they tend to focus on meteorological and hydrological aspects instead of social and economic dimensions. Notably, droughts of comparable meteorological severity can have vastly different outcomes, influenced by disparities in infrastructure, economic resilience, and community preparedness. Recent drought studies have highlighted the potential of integrating text mining and natural language processing to enhance drought impact assessments. However, many of these studies rely on official reports or newspapers, which often face limitations in temporal and spatial resolution due to the constraints of available data sources. In contrast, social media platforms like Twitter (X) host and disseminate real-time text data from individuals experiencing drought events, providing more granular and dynamic information about drought impacts that traditional methods may struggle to capture.

This study seeks to develop a framework for assessing perceived drought impacts through a set of sectoral impact scores generated from social media data by leveraging text mining techniques. Furthermore, the research compares these social media-derived scores with severity data from the report-based European Drought Impact Database (EDID) and physical drought indices to identify similarities and discrepancies between public perceived impacts, officially reported impacts, and meteorological drought intensity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to convert social media text into indicators of drought impacts across multiple categories, offering an innovative complement to traditional indices and enhancing our understanding of how affected communities perceive drought events.

Focusing on the 2022 Italian drought, we analyzed location-specific tweets using sentence embedding and large language models to identify sector-specific topics. We then examined the spatial and temporal patterns of perceived sectoral impact scores across Italy based on each tweet's relevance to the identified impact sectors. Our analysis revealed that Twitter activity about droughts peaked in the summer, with water availability and societal responses drawing the most attention in Northern Italy. This activity pattern closely aligned with the seasonality identified by SPI metrics, with areas of extreme drought conditions expanded during the summer months. On the other hand, comparisons with the report-based EDID showed inconsistencies, as EDID emphasized more severe impacts on agriculture. This suggests that while social media captures timely public perceived impacts, it may fail to fully reflect the depth or breadth of impacts in certain sectors due to the underrepresentation of specific groups on these platforms.

How to cite: Wang, J., Pernici, B., and Castelletti, A.: Spatial Analysis of Drought Perceived Impacts Using Social Media Text Mining, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14575, 2025.

EGU25-14905 | Posters on site | NH9.4

Completing the drought impact database for the transboundary region of the Prut Valley (Romania/Republic of Moldova) 

Mihai Ciprian Margarint, Tatiana Bunduc, Mihai Niculita, Iurie Bejan, Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, Ioana Chiriac, Aliona Botnari, Elena-Oana Chelariu, Andreea-Daniela Fedor, and Andrei Enea

Knowledge on the impact of droughts represents a pivotal milestone for the assessment of drought risk and the improvement of water management. While drought as a hazard has a non-boundary spatial pattern, different countries, with different socio-economic backgrounds can be characterized by various levels of vulnerability and follow different paths to cope with its. Deciphering the impacts of the past drought events can considerably improve societal complex responses and inform the choice of adaptive measures and water supply management in the face of the future similar events. Building-up a database of past droughts along the Prut Valley represents the first work package of the project: “Exploring the paths to cope with hydro-climatic risks in transboundary rural areas along the Prut Valley. A multi-criteria analysis”. A comprehensive database was created regarding the events recorded between 1860 and 2024 on both banks of the Prut River. The data were gathered from scientific literature and by exploring the digital and printed newspapers from both countries (written in Romanian, in Romanian with Cyrillic characters and in Russian). The information about droughts has been recorded and presented differently, mainly because of particular political, economic, and social conditions from the two countries (we mention that during the period 1918-1940 both territories were within the same borders). The supervised collection of the impact of droughts made possible a rigorous selection of events, eliminating duplicates, irrelevant news, and an in depth analysis of cascading impacts. The value of this database is multiplied by the geoscientific expertise of the authors as well as by the investigation of all the available documents.

The main result consists in the identification of the main temporal benchmarks (such as those from 1904, 1907, 1928, 1946, 1965) and spatial hotspots (especially in the southern part of the study area) in the manifestation of droughts. Coupling the database with GIS techniques that allow us a large type of assigned attributes, the cartographical outputs of this work will clearly contribute to an accurate configuration of past drought events. This constitutes a scientific starting point for drought risk assessment, better choices of adaptive measures and the improvement of water management targeting citizens, farmers, and decision-makers.

Some conclusions can be addressed regarding future approaches of the mitigation of droughts in rural agricultural areas such as our study area: (i) droughts are not only a farmers major problem but they affect entire rural communities; (ii) solving local capacity to develop alternative water supply during the summer must represent not only a local/regional priority but a national and European Union one; (iii) increasing resilience to droughts must include a participatory locally-adapted approach based on the experience of citizens; (iv) there is a pressing need to acknowledge the importance of transboundary network and projects, especially in the case of droughts monitoring and proactive water management.

How to cite: Margarint, M. C., Bunduc, T., Niculita, M., Bejan, I., Albulescu, A.-C., Chiriac, I., Botnari, A., Chelariu, E.-O., Fedor, A.-D., and Enea, A.: Completing the drought impact database for the transboundary region of the Prut Valley (Romania/Republic of Moldova), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14905, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14905, 2025.

EGU25-15865 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

Drought Risk Assessment in Crisis Context: A Collaborative Approach for Sudan. 

Luca Trotter, Michel Isabellon, Edoardo Cremonese, Alessandro Masoero, Safa Babiker, Salwa Ali, Haitham Khogly, Elfadil Mohammed Mahmoud, Hind Saeed Sabar, Adam Ibrahim Abdella, Mohamedalameen Abkar, Mohammed Ibrahim Abohassabo, Abuelgasim I. I. Musa, Elabbas Adam Nagi Adam, Eman Eltayeb Abdelkreem Mohamed, Lauro Rossi, and Nicola Testa

We present the methodology for near real-time monitoring of emerging drought risk in Sudan, resulting in the release of a national drought risk bulletin every 10-days to inform local stakeholders, humanitarian organizations and policymakers. The bulletin stems from a collaboration between CIMA Research Foundation and Sudanese partners, within the framework of the APIS initiative - Early Warning and Civil Protection for Floods and Droughts in Sudan - funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation. The bulletin is co-created by nine Sudanese institutions with diverse economic, social or scientific expertise under the coordination of the National Council of Civil Defence NCCD, national body in charge of disaster risk reduction operations. Sudan is particularly vulnerable to drought impacts due to its climate, demographic and economy. This vulnerability has been further intensified by the war that erupted in April 2023, creating one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history. In this context, this collaboration enhances local resiliency and disaster preparedness while maintaining and supporting local expertise and know-how in a period of crisis. 

For the publication of the bulletin, drought risk is evaluated separately for three possible impact categories: croplands, rangelands and population.  For each of these, a combination of datasets from publicly available sources and datasets provided by the local partners are used to estimate the hazard, exposure and vulnerability components of risk. For hazard estimation, the combined drought indicator (CDI) is used for hazard to crops and pastures, whereas a 12-month standardised precipitation index (SPI12) is used as a proxy for water availability for the population.  

Regarding exposure and vulnerability, a collaborative approach was followed. Several relevant datasets were gathered and discussed with the representatives of the institutions participating in the creation of the bulletin to assess their correctness, validity and relevance. The selected datasets were weighted by the participants based on their expertise to collaboratively estimate the most suitable exposure and vulnerability layers for each of the three impact categories. Finally, a dynamic component was added to these layers considering global phenology data (for croplands and rangelands) as well as the implementation of an innovative approach to capture changes in population vulnerability during the dry season taking into consideration water availability and losses over time. 

The bulletin has been operational since November 2024 and all the data and results are available to all stakeholders through a tailored access to the online platform myDEWETRA.World.

How to cite: Trotter, L., Isabellon, M., Cremonese, E., Masoero, A., Babiker, S., Ali, S., Khogly, H., Mahmoud, E. M., Sabar, H. S., Abdella, A. I., Abkar, M., Abohassabo, M. I., Musa, A. I. I., Nagi Adam, E. A., Abdelkreem Mohamed, E. E., Rossi, L., and Testa, N.: Drought Risk Assessment in Crisis Context: A Collaborative Approach for Sudan., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15865, 2025.

EGU25-16115 | Orals | NH9.4

A Tree Vitality Monitor for the German Railway Network - RailVitaliTree 

Daniel Rutte, Larissa Billig, Achim Braeuning, Marc Braun, Sascha Gey, Martin Haeusser, Mathias Herbst, Randolf Klinke, Wolfgang Kurtz, Paul Schmidt-Walther, Benjamin Stöckigt, and Sonja Szymczak

Tree vitality is a key factor influencing natural hazard-related risks for rail transport, yet it has been little considered in risk models and management concepts. This is primarily due to a lack of reliable tree vitality data along railways. In the project “RailVitaliTree – Tree vitality monitoring and modelling of drought-related risks along railroads with remote sensing and dendroecology”, we are developing a tree vitality monitor for the tree population along Germany’s railway network.

We analyze time-series data – including multispectral satellite images, dendroecological data and climate data – to deepen our understanding of the relationship between climate and tree vitality in the specific microclimate along railways. Based on our findings, we will assess the long-term consequences of drought in a changing climate and its multiplier effects on other natural hazard-related risks. Ultimately, our goal is to enhance the resilience of rail transport to vegetation-related disturbances. Our focus is on the four major tree species in Germany: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), european spruce (Picea abies), pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica).

In this presentation, we outline our initial steps, study sites and methodology. For our retrospective climate analysis, we examine the spatial distribution and temporal changes in drought stress of these four major tree species from 1961 to the present, using the water balance model LWF-Brook90. We also conduct a correlation analysis to explore the relationship between modelled drought stress and observed changes in tree vitality, as indicated by satellite data (based on the ForestWatch Tool: https://forestwatch.lup-umwelt.de/).

Additionally, we present preliminary dendroecological results from our study sites. We compare growth data from trees along the rail with that of trees in nearby forest stands. This analysis ultimately aims to identify potential forest edge effects and evaluate whether trees along the rail are more susceptible to drought stress.

How to cite: Rutte, D., Billig, L., Braeuning, A., Braun, M., Gey, S., Haeusser, M., Herbst, M., Klinke, R., Kurtz, W., Schmidt-Walther, P., Stöckigt, B., and Szymczak, S.: A Tree Vitality Monitor for the German Railway Network - RailVitaliTree, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16115, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16115, 2025.

EGU25-16467 | ECS | Orals | NH9.4

The World Drought Atlas: a wake-up call on drought risks and resilience  

Tessa Maurer, Edoardo Cremonese, Lauro Rossi, Andrea Toreti, Daniel Tsegai, Marthe Wens, Hans de Moel, Anne-Sophie Sabino Siemons, Juan Acosta Navarro, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Danila Volpi, Davide Cotti, Edward Sparkes, and Michael Hagenlocher

The World Drought Atlas is a new flagship report, produced in collaboration with the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the European Commission, and other partners, which aims to raise awareness of drought risk and resilience. Formally introduced at UNCCD's 16th Conference of Parties in Riyadh in December 2024, the Atlas is aimed at national and regional governments and policymakers, providing a starting point for implementing measures to address drought risks. Using primarily visual materials, the Atlas aims to: i) synthesize, map, and characterize current and future drivers that contribute to drought risks at the global level, ii) illustrate viable risk management and adaptation options, and iii) highlight examples from different systems and regions of the world.  

In this presentation, we introduce the Atlas to the research community, briefly covering content and structure before turning to a discussion of the process behind this collaborative effort between scientists and policymakers. We highlight the differences between peer-reviewed research and policy-oriented projects, the value of visual storytelling, and the importance of a globally distributed author list. We also discuss three of the Atlas’ most important messages and how they were addressed: 1) the combined socioecological character of drought, moving away from characterizations of drought as a “natural” hazard; 2) the broad impact of drought geographically, challenging notions that drought is only a problem in the developing world or in arid regions; and 3) the multisectoral and cascading nature of drought impacts, expanding beyond a traditional association of drought with agriculture. We finish with a short discussion of future plans for dissemination of the Atlas and its findings. 

Recognizing that the Atlas is itself an example of cross-disciplinary efforts to promote better drought management and adaptation, we see this discussion as an opportunity to share some of the lessons learned in engaging in interdisciplinary, applied work. We hope this work serves as an example of successful multisectoral collaboration that enhances our collective understanding of drought risks and how to manage and respond to them. 

How to cite: Maurer, T., Cremonese, E., Rossi, L., Toreti, A., Tsegai, D., Wens, M., de Moel, H., Sabino Siemons, A.-S., Acosta Navarro, J., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Volpi, D., Cotti, D., Sparkes, E., and Hagenlocher, M.: The World Drought Atlas: a wake-up call on drought risks and resilience , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16467, 2025.

To explore the interaction and causality between management decision-making and 
the evolution of anthropogenic drought, we proposed a comprehensive decision
evaluating framework and analytical method. This framework consists of several key 
components: current status description, actions from a virtual agent, the consequences 
of these actions, policy objective design, and the identification of an optimal datum 
policy. In the context of anthropogenic drought, the modified water accounting and 
vulnerability evaluation plus (modified WAVE+) is employed to simulate socio
hydrological interactions, providing a detailed description of the current status. The 
consequences of actions are determined using the Monte-Carlo method, serving as 
conditional probabilities for anthropogenic drought occurrence. The proposed optimal 
objectives, which focus on maximizing supply capacity and minimizing water 
shortages, are achieved using a Q-learning mixed strategy integrated with the modified 
WAVE+. To further analyze the dynamics of anthropogenic drought, we decomposed 
the sources of change in conditional probability into two key factors: anthropogenic 
pressure and vis major. This decoupling of socio-hydrological information allows for a 
more nuanced causality analysis. By comparing the optimal datum policy with the 
quantified evaluations of anthropogenic pressure and vis major, we introduced a 
concept to determine whether drought dynamics are resistible or irresistible and 
whether there is potential for improvement in decision-making. Applying this 
evaluation framework and analytical method to the Shihmen water supply system in 
Northern Taiwan, we not only demonstrated how anthropogenic drought co-evolves 
with water resource management policies but also conducted an irresistible and 
causality analysis of historical drought events. 

How to cite: Liu, C.-Y. and Hsu, S.-Y.: From Causes to Consequences: A Novel Aspect for Evaluating Anthropogenic Drought and Water Resource Management Policies , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16920, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16920, 2025.

EGU25-18424 | ECS | Posters on site | NH9.4

Deciphering Vulnerability Dynamics: A Review on Conceptual and Methodological Pluralism in Dynamic Drought Vulnerability Assessments 

Maike Schlebusch, Davide Cotti, Marthe Wens, Anne F. Van Loon, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Sarra Kchouk, and Michael Hagenlocher

Drought risks are characterized by complex characteristics and processes, which underpin all risk components, i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The dynamics of drought vulnerability are of particular interest since they can provide important information for adaptive risk management and adaptation practices in the face of growing drought risks, where a static understanding of vulnerability may not be effective or even prove to be maladaptive. For this reason, the scientific and policy-making communities have been increasingly advocating for including vulnerability dynamics in drought risk assessments. However, no overview exists of how scientists approach drought vulnerability dynamics, and there is a lack of conceptual clarity as to which types of changes (e.g. temporal, spatial, or system’s drivers and components) should be the object of dynamic vulnerability assessments.

To fill this gap, we carried out a systematic review of drought vulnerability dynamics to shed light on concepts, approaches, and methodologies available in the scientific literature. The review covered English peer-reviewed publications retrieved from the Scopus database and refined through multiple steps of assessment, using fixed inclusion/exclusion criteria and a “four-eyes” principle. Our review shows that only a minority of the studies considered and assessed vulnerability in its dynamic components. Moreover, within these, most of the applications only considered temporal dynamics, i.e. changes through time, and only a minority investigated drought vulnerability dynamics within a multi-hazard context. This highlights that more research is required to fully account for the complexity of drought risks and to better support risk management. The review results were also instrumental in informing a novel conceptual framework on vulnerability dynamics, which can guide future research advancements and applications, beyond the confines of any single hazards.

How to cite: Schlebusch, M., Cotti, D., Wens, M., Van Loon, A. F., de Brito, M. M., Kchouk, S., and Hagenlocher, M.: Deciphering Vulnerability Dynamics: A Review on Conceptual and Methodological Pluralism in Dynamic Drought Vulnerability Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18424, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18424, 2025.

EGU25-735 | ECS | Posters on site | NP3.1

Decoding Typhoon Wind Patterns: Variational Retrieval and Multifractal Insights 

Jisun Lee, Seong-Jun Hwang, and Dong-In Lee

Typhoon wind dynamics are inherently nonlinear, exhibiting complex interactions between large-scale trajectory shifts and small-scale variability. This study employs variational retrieval techniques and multifractal analysis to investigate altitude-specific wind field patterns and their connections to trajectory and intensity changes. Using radar observations and numerical model data, high-resolution 3D wind fields were constructed to explore the structural and statistical characteristics of wind components (U, V) across different altitudes and typhoon trajectories.

Our analysis focuses on two distinct trajectory types: northward-moving typhoons (e.g., Nakri, Lingling, Bavi) and northeastward-moving typhoons (e.g., Chaba, Kong-Rey). Results indicate that northward trajectories exhibit crescent-shaped wind patterns dominated by northerly wind components, while northeastward trajectories show circular wind structures. Notably, multifractal analysis revealed abrupt decreases in the multifractal parameter α for northerly winds at 1–2 km altitude during trajectory transitions, suggesting nonlinear structural reorganization within the typhoon system. For example, during Typhoon Chaba (2016) and Typhoon Kong-Rey (2018), α values for northerly winds dropped sharply by 1.5–2.2 units, coinciding with significant directional shifts and rapid changes in typhoon directions.

In addition to wind field analysis, we quantified variability in rainfall fields using radar reflectivity and rainfall intensity data. Northeastward-moving typhoons demonstrated broader and more intense rainfall bands, with higher vertical reflectivity profiles up to 8 km altitude, compared to the narrower and more localized patterns observed in northward-moving cases. This suggests a strong coupling between wind field variability and rainfall distribution, driven by nonlinear interactions.

By integrating multifractal techniques with variational retrieval methods, this study bridges small-scale turbulence with large-scale trajectory dynamics, offering new insights into the inherent complexity of typhoon systems. These findings contribute to the development of advanced prediction systems, enabling more accurate trajectory and intensity forecasts. Such approaches could significantly mitigate the impacts of typhoons on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

 

This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT) (No.RS-2024-00460019)

How to cite: Lee, J., Hwang, S.-J., and Lee, D.-I.: Decoding Typhoon Wind Patterns: Variational Retrieval and Multifractal Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-735, 2025.

EGU25-1093 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

Multifractal correlation of rainfall extremes and temperature 

Yann Torres Guimarães and Auguste Gires

Multifractal processes describe complex systems characterized by variability that spans across multiple scales and intensities, governed by scale-invariant distributions of extreme values. Universal Multifractals (UM) provide a robust framework for modelling and understanding the inherent extreme variability and scaling properties of various geophysical phenomena. It is a parsimonious framework that relies on only 3 parameters with physical interpretation, C1 the mean intermittency, α the multifractality index and H the non-conservation parameter.

 

Rainfall, inherently variable across spatial and temporal domains, has been widely studied in the framework of UM, with techniques like Trace Moment (TM) and Double Trace Moment (DTM) applied to characterize its scaling properties. Based on this framework, this study aims to assess the correlation between rainfall scaling features and extremes, and temperature ones, relying on multifractal analysis such as DTM and TM. High resolution simultaneously collected rainfall data from disdrometers and temperature data from meteorological stations is used. Data was collected during various measurement campaigns operated by the TARANIS observatory of HM&Co laboratory of Enpc (https://hmco.enpc.fr/portfolio-archive/taranis-observatory/). Data collected both in an urban area and on a meteorological mast located on a wind farm is used. For the disdrometer data, it was collected with 30 seconds time steps, As for the temperature, the meteorological station measures the temperature at 1Hz, so to match their time series it was necessary to take averages of the temperature data at each 30s.

 

Initially, the study explores the correlation between the primary multifractal parameters (C1, α, H) of rainfall and the average temperature at the rainfall event scale. Subsequently, a comparative analysis was conducted between these rainfall parameters and their counterparts derived from temperature fluctuations. This two-step approach aimed to uncover not only direct correlations between rainfall and temperature but also the extent to which the multifractal properties of rainfall mirror those observed in temperature dynamics. In a second part of the study, similar analysis on longer periods of typically one month are used to complement event based analysis by accounting for dry periods.

 

Authors acknowledge the ANR PRCI Ra2DW project supported by the French National Research Agency – ANR-23-CE01-0019-01 for partial financial support.

How to cite: Torres Guimarães, Y. and Gires, A.: Multifractal correlation of rainfall extremes and temperature, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1093, 2025.

EGU25-4129 | Posters on site | NP3.1

Multiscale Statistical Distribution of Porous Media Transport Behaviour: A Fractal Geometry Approach 

Wei Wei, Paul Glover, and Piroska Lorinczi

The transport properties of porous media exhibit complex multiscale behaviours, which are governed by nonlinear interaction of structural heterogeneity, and which present significant challenges for theoretical understanding and practical modelling. To address this complexity, we propose a fractal-based framework to quantitatively link structural parameters with transport behaviours, focusing specifically on electrical current flow in porous media. Our approach develops a tortuosity model based on self-similarity principles in order to describe the geometric structure, and to assess the transport properties, such as permeability and electrical conductivity.

At the single-capillary level, key microstructural properties, such as pore geometry and connectivity, and transport properties, including permeability and electrical conductivity, can be quantified using metrics such as fractal dimension, tube number, and characteristic length. These parameters capture both structural complexity and scaling behaviour. Taking electrical conductivity as an example, a two-dimensional porous medium with a grid resolution of 16,384 × 16,384 is generated using the Quartet Structure Generation Set (QSGS) method and partitioned into smaller scales (e.g., 1024, 512, 256, and 128) to explore multiscale behaviour and scaling effects. Finite difference methods are employed to calculate the electrical field distributions and derive the effective electrical conductivity. These results are then mapped to the parameters of the self-similar tortuosity model, providing insights into its ability to capture the complex relationships between structure and transport properties.

Statistical analysis reveals that the measured fractal dimensions follow a Weibull distribution across scales, characterised by its distinctive shape and scale parameters. By contrast, characteristic length and tube number values exhibit scale-dependent variations that influence their respective distribution patterns. Tube number conforms to a lognormal distribution, reflecting its intrinsic variability. These findings enable the development of more accurate and computationally efficient multiscale models, with potential applications in areas such as fluid flow, heat transfer, and the design of advanced porous materials.

How to cite: Wei, W., Glover, P., and Lorinczi, P.: Multiscale Statistical Distribution of Porous Media Transport Behaviour: A Fractal Geometry Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4129, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4129, 2025.

EGU25-8573 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

What guides regime transitions in ecohydrological systems? 

Daniel F. T. Hagan, Benjamin L. Ruddell, Hsin Hsu, Yikui Zhang, and Diego G. Miralles

Changes in ecohydrological systems are driven by emergent patterns of organization that arise through internal differentiation, reflected in the variability of ecosystem components and shifts in the strengths of positive and negative feedbacks. This phenomenon, known as self-organization, allows ecosystems to transition between self-organized states in response to external perturbations, leading to new dynamic regimes. The resulting overall emergent properties represent a balance between the loss of stability and shifts toward equilibrium within ecosystems. However, it remains unclear whether ecosystem self-organization is guided by a convergence of states and feedbacks toward an optimal state and, if so, what such an optimal state might look like.

Using information-theoretic approaches, we characterize ecosystem variability and feedbacks as entropy changes based on observations. To do so, we concentrate on eddy-covariance measurements from global FLUXNET stations. Our findings reveal potential optimal states toward which ecosystems tend to transition and identify the conditions that govern these transitions, shaping the evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems. These results also provide a framework for assessing ecosystem resilience to major perturbations, such as droughts and heatwaves, and emphasize the critical role of hydrological variability in improving predictions of ecosystem changes and extreme events that pose risks to water and food security.

How to cite: Hagan, D. F. T., Ruddell, B. L., Hsu, H., Zhang, Y., and Miralles, D. G.: What guides regime transitions in ecohydrological systems?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8573, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8573, 2025.

EGU25-11882 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

From Crisis to Adaptation: The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure in Recent Flood Events 

Sagnika Chakraborty, Nour Eddin El Faouzi, and Angelo Furno

As climate change accelerates, the frequency and intensity of flood events are rising, creating significant challenges for critical infrastructure systems worldwide. Transportation, energy, and communication networks are particularly vulnerable, and their resilience to such disasters
is crucial for minimizing long-term impacts. This study examines five recent flood events—Germany (2021), Belgium (2021), Sydney (2022), Auckland (2023), and Italy (2023)—to explore the effects of these floods on critical infrastructure and identify best practices for enhancing resilience. The research focuses on answering the central question:
How do recent flood events impact critical infrastructure, and what best practices can be identified for improving resilience?


Due to the recent nature of these floods, data collection was a pivotal aspect of the study, with information sourced from public news reports, research journals, government reports, and interviews. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method- the Vikor, was employed to rank hazards, vulnerabilities, and the resilience of critical infrastructure in each case study. This approach provided a systematic evaluation of shared vulnerabilities and region-specific
differences in disaster response and infrastructure resilience.


The findings highlight the importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration, early warning systems, and adaptive infrastructure solutions in mitigating flood impacts. Best practices were identified across all phases of disaster management—pre-disaster preparedness, immediate emergency response, and long-term recovery. These practices emphasize the need for innovative infrastructure adaptations, community engagement, and coordinated
governance to build more resilient systems.


This research offers valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and disaster management professionals. By analyzing these five flood events, the study provides transferable lessons on how to enhance infrastructure resilience and integrate adaptive strategies into policy frameworks. Ultimately, this research contributes to the broader global discourse on climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction, aiming to strengthen preparedness
for future flood events.


Keywords: Flood resilience, critical infrastructure, case study analysis, MCDM, disaster management, data collection, best practices

How to cite: Chakraborty, S., El Faouzi, N. E., and Furno, A.: From Crisis to Adaptation: The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure in Recent Flood Events, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11882, 2025.

EGU25-12865 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

An investigation on the impact of intermittency on wind Lidar profiler data utilizing a Universal Multifractal framework  

Sonali Maurya, Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, and Maxime Thiébaut

The intermittent nature of turbulence introduces significant variability and extreme events, which profoundly complicates efforts to accurately measure, model, and predict its behavior. In the context of the atmospheric boundary layer, this intermittent turbulence can lead to localized bursts of wind shear, which poses risks to wind energy operations. These fluctuations directly impact the operational efficiency and structural integrity of wind turbines. Specifically, turbulence influences fatigue loads on the turbines and is essential for accurately modeling wake effects that occur within wind farms, which can affect the performance of adjacent turbines and forecasting energy production. Research suggests that a multifractal framework characterized by complex patterns across various scales enables one to properly model the intermittency of turbulence. To investigate this phenomenon, the present study analyzes wind data collected using a state-of-the-art lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) system profiler. This profiler was deployed on an offshore measurement mast situated near an offshore wind farm located 13 kilometers off the coast of Fécamp, France. Employing a universal multifractal (UM) framework, this study seeks to simulate and analyze the extreme variability inherent in the collected data. In the first step, The UM framework will be used to quantify the effects of intermittency on standard metrics such as turbulence intensity (TI) and spectral slopes, also accounting for the resolution at which they are computed and the frequency of data. Empirical estimates of TI and spectral slope in homogeneous turbulence often deviate from theoretical scaling, which can be theoretically and empirically quantified. In the second step, the results of the UM analysis of the measured time series will be discussed. Additionally, this study will delve into the instrumental biases introduced by the lidar instrument used in the measurement of turbulence. These biases can significantly impact the accuracy of data interpretation and reliability of results, making it essential to explore and address them thoroughly. This research not only addresses the theoretical aspects of turbulence but also has practical implications for optimizing wind energy operations in the face of unpredictable environmental conditions. Finally, the authors would like to acknowledge the partial financial support of the French Government, managed by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche under the Investissements d’Avenir program, with the reference ANR-10-IEED-0006-34. This work was carried out in the framework of the NEMO project.

How to cite: Maurya, S., Gires, A., Tchiguirinskaia, I., Schertzer, D., and Thiébaut, M.: An investigation on the impact of intermittency on wind Lidar profiler data utilizing a Universal Multifractal framework , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12865, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12865, 2025.

Extreme events have a significant impact on nature, industry, agriculture, and society as a whole. From life-threatening heat waves and spring frosts that devastate crops in orchards and vineyards to other extremes such as epileptic seizures or financial market crashes, these phenomena remain a focus of intense scientific investigation.

The identification of causal relationships, specifically distinguishing cause from effect, is a rapidly advancing area of scientific research. Experts from various disciplines, including mathematics, physics, computer science, and others, are developing computational methods and algorithms to uncover causal links from experimental data.

Despite growing interest in these scientific fields, surprisingly few research teams integrate the study of causality with the analysis of extreme phenomena. Building on the information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality, Paluš et al. (2024) propose Rényi information transfer as a method for determining which of two or more potential causal variables gives rise to extreme values in an effect variable. Their study identifies the Siberian High as a key driver of increased probabilities of cold extremes in winter and spring surface air temperatures in Europe, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and blocking events are shown to induce shifts in the entire temperature probability distribution.

In this contribution we will employ Rényi information transfer to investigate the underlying causes of heat waves or warm extremes in summer surface air temperature in Europe. We will highlight the role of blocking events and examine the contribution of other relevant circulation phenomena, accounting for varying spatial and temporal scales as well as non-Gaussian probability distributions.

 

This research was supported by the Johannes Amos Comenius Programme (P JAC), project No. CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004605, Natural and anthropogenic georisks, and by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš.

 

Paluš, M., Chvosteková, M., & Manshour, P. (2024). Causes of extreme events revealed by Rényi information transfer. Science Advances, 10(30), eadn1721.

How to cite: Paluš, M.: Behind extreme variability: Unveiling causes using information theory beyond Shannon, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14307, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14307, 2025.

EGU25-14433 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

One day in the life of clouds  

Paulina Patiño and Klaudia Oleschko

In 1870, Prof. Paey,  President of the Anthropological Society of Cuba, underlined that no one can ignore that studying clouds is one of the most practical needs of meteorology (1). More than 150 years later, the long-term stability of the Earth's atmosphere and climate (2) is recognized as sensitive to cloud dynamics (3), especially cloud thinning, relating it directly to climate change (4). The critical conclusion, documented in numerous studies (5), is that climate change is also a health crisis (6). The general panorama and the need to classify the clouds (7) to create a reliable Library for Machine Learning. Graph Geometric Algebra networks for graph representation learning (8) can become the decisive moment for cloud studies and modeling passing from classification to physics-informed Turing-like patterns recognition inside the diurnal variations of clouds and corresponding humidity profiles of the atmosphere. Multifractal and p-adic forecasting (9) of Big Data patterning is envisaged as the New Science of Complexity based on the physics of atmosphere, clouds, and climate (10, 11). Based on the physics-informed approach, we focus on original numbers systems and their multiscale pattering, fusing, and unifying Big Geo Data inside the probability-embedded medium, introducing the new methodology for Turning-type patterning quantifier of cloud system multiscale structure complexity extracted from physics-informed and statistics-informed raw data and images with moving space-temporal boundaries. Muuk'il Kaab (MIK) agile, bio-inspired (bees-type) software was designed and calibrated multiscale images from smartphones to high-precision photo cameras on clouds. This contribution shows more than ten years of testing as a new Metacomplexity Universal Quantitative Attribute (MCUQA) for complex pattern recognition, measurement, multiscale visualization, and skeletonization. Our research aims to optimize the fusion of multidimensional multiphysical raw data sets by the same nature-inspired bee-type software through data visualization, image analytics, virtualization, and the unification and forecasting of physics-informed measures with number theory.

Keywords: Big Data; data fusion; algebra of images; physics-informed 3D signals visualization; networks images geometrization; Complexity quantitative attributes; thermodynamic, multifractal, and p-adic forecasting.

References:

  • Poey, F. New classification of clouds. 1870, Nature 2:382-385.
  • Henderson-Sellers, A. Clouds and the long-term stability of the Earth's atmosphere and climate. Nature, 1979, 279260786-260788.
  • Bony, S., Stevens, B., Frierson; D.M.W., Jakob, Ch., Kageyama, M., Pincus, R., Shepherd; T.G., Sherwood, S.C., Siebesma, A.P., Sobel, A.,M. and Webb, M. Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 2015, 261- 268.
  • Sokol, A., Wall, C., & Hartmann, D.L. Greater climate sensitivity implied by anvil cloud thinning. Nature Geoscience, 2024, 17, 398-403.
  • What happens when climate and mental health crises collide? Nature, 628, 235.
  • Wong, C. Climate change is also the health crisis: These graphics explain Why. Nature, 624, 14-16.
  • Schirber, M. Nobel prize: Complexity, from atoms to atmospheres. 2021, Physics 14, 141.
  • Zhong, J., Cao, W. Graph Geometric Algebra networks for graph representation learning. 2025, Nature, Scientific Reports, 15, 170.
  • Dubrulle, B. 2022. Multifractality, Universality and Singularity in Turbulence. 2022. Fractal and Fractional, 6, 613.
  • Mason, B.J. Physics of clouds and precipitation. 1954. Nature, 20, 957-959.
  • Bracco, A., Brajard, J., Dijkstra, H.A., Hassanzadeh, P.,, Ch. 2025. Machine learning for the physics of climate. Nature Reviews Physics, 7, 6-20.

How to cite: Patiño, P. and Oleschko, K.: One day in the life of clouds , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14433, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14433, 2025.

Climate network (CN) analysis has demonstrated significant potential and is widely applied in climate research. However, revealing the underlying mechanisms behind the results obtained from CN analysis remains challenging. One possible reason for this difficulty lies in the method used to determine the links between nodes in the climate network. The commonly used Pearson correlation analysis may not be able to fully capture the complex dynamics of the climate system. In particular, the multi-scale interactions among multiple processes may induce scaling behaviors in the climate system, which further lead to long-term climate memory. The presence of such memory may influence CN analysis outcomes. In this work, we aim to identify the climate memory impacts on the CN analysis. Combining with the Fractional Integral Statistical Model (FISM), we proposed a new approach named as CN-FISM. The FISM model allows for the extraction of the climate memory component, enabling the modification of time series to preserve a specified length of memory. By conducting CN analysis on these adjusted series, one thus can quantify the impacts of climate memory. This approach has been successfully employed to a recent CN analysis on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase change. Compared with the current Pearson correlation-based CN approach, the CN-FISM may enhance the interpretability of CN results.

How to cite: Yuan, N. and Wei, Z.: Identifying climate memory impacts on climate network analysis using fractional integral techniques, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15394, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15394, 2025.

EGU25-17717 | ECS | Orals | NP3.1

 Scaling relationships in hydrological quantities and pollutant loads across river basins 

Louise Schreyers and A. Jan Hendriks

Quantities such as discharge, flow velocity, water depth, and pollutant loads are essential for understanding pollutant emissions and for effective hydrological management, including flood control, water supply, and ecosystem preservation. Despite their critical importance and advances in data collection and modeling, the challenge of predicting these quantities in ungauged or poorly monitored basins persists. In the case of pollutants, this issue is complexified by the growing number of pollutants requiring evaluation. For example, within the EU, more than 100,000 chemical compounds require assessment.

Scaling relationships, which relate system characteristics to basin size metrics, offer a promising stepping stone to address this challenge. For instance, river discharge - one of the most fundamental hydrological metrics - has been shown to scale with basin size through power-law relationships. This scaling is also influenced by additional factors such as climatic conditions, land use, and geomorphology, underscoring the need for integrated approaches to characterize the scaling relationship. Similarly, pollutant loads are often expressed through models such as the Concentration-Discharge (C-Q) relationship, which links pollutant concentrations (C) to discharge rates (Q). While such models provide valuable insights, their applicability requires robust scaling principles to account for variability in pollutant sources, and transport mechanisms. 

In this contribution, we present our framework to derive scaling relationships for key quantities in the hydrological cycle and pollutant loads within river basins, focusing on their dependence on size-related indicators of river basins. Scaling principles of metrics such as discharge, flow velocity, water depth, and groundwater volume are derived using observational datasets, such as Global Runoff Data Center and SWOT river database. For pollutant loads and emissions, where monitoring is limited to a few key indicators, scaling principles offer promising avenues to predict emissions across diverse systems. By linking hydrological and pollutant-related variables through consistent scaling principles, we aim to provide a unified approach to understanding variability across river basins of different sizes. This work underscores the value of scaling relationships in bridging theoretical insights and practical applications, offering tools for improved management of water resources and pollutant impacts.

How to cite: Schreyers, L. and Hendriks, A. J.:  Scaling relationships in hydrological quantities and pollutant loads across river basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17717, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17717, 2025.

EGU25-20443 | Posters on site | NP3.1

Nonlinear dynamics and intermittency of the solar wind magnetic field fluctuations probed with surrogate data 

Eliza Teodorescu, Marius Echim, and Jay Johnson

We present a statistical approach to estimate the significance of the intermittency of solar wind magnetic field fluctuations. We analyze nine days of magnetic field data provided by Parker Solar Probe (PSP) at about 0.17 AU from the Sun during the probe’s first perihelion (Encounter 1). Intermittency is estimated based on flatness, the normalized fourth-order moment of the probability distribution functions. When we divide the signal in sub-intervals of 3 to 24 hours length, we find that flatness/intermittency varies from interval to interval. Sub-intervals showing very low levels of intermittency, with flatness values close to three at all scales, alternated with highly intermittent sub-intervals where flatness reaches values close to 60.

In order to understand the observed variability of the intermittency level, we applied a statistical test based on data surrogates (Theiler et al., 1992) tailored to identify nonlinear dynamics in a time series. The aim is to falsify a null hypothesis that is a-priori known to be invalid, i.e. the intermittency observed in PSP data results from a linear Gaussian-like physical process, with the nonlinearity being due to the observation function.

The surrogates are generated such that all nonlinear correlations contained in the dynamics of the signal are eliminated. We find that the flatness computed for the original signal is significantly different from that computed for the ensemble of surrogates, i.e. the null hypothesis is falsified. Thus, the flatness is indeed a descriptor of the intermittency resulting from the inherent nonlinear dynamics of the process captured by the magnetic field observations of the PSP. We also discuss how the non-stationarity of a time series affects the flatness computed for both the PSP data and the surrogates, precluding the null hypothesis is falsified.

Further, a multi-order simultaneous fit of the structure functions revealed a decrease in flatness at scales smaller than a few seconds: intermittency is reduced in this scale range. This behavior was mirrored by the spectral analysis, which was suggestive of an acceleration of the energy cascade at the high frequency end of the inertial regime.

How to cite: Teodorescu, E., Echim, M., and Johnson, J.: Nonlinear dynamics and intermittency of the solar wind magnetic field fluctuations probed with surrogate data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20443, 2025.

EGU25-20554 | Orals | NP3.1

Multifractal Phase Transitions for the “Transformative Shift” Towards a Shared Value Economy 

Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Guillaume Drouen, Yangzi Qiu, Pierre-Antoine Versini, Auguste Gires, and Daniel Schertzer

International projections indicate that extreme climatic events will become more frequent and intense, leading to significant disruptions in water cycle patterns. At the same time, water remains the only irreplaceable natural resource. As a result, human economies must be prepared to confront a range of socio-economic challenges stemming from changes in the water cycle. These issues cannot be resolved through incremental improvements to existing measures. Consequently, there is a growing call for "transformative change" — a comprehensive, system-wide restructuring at various scales, akin to what physicists describe as a non-equilibrium phase transition in a complex, nonlinear system — to tackle the interconnected and persistent challenges.

In recent years, there has been a growing global emphasis on funding research with greater "transformative impact." This often leads to a focus on the outcomes and content of transformative change, when the real focus should be on the underlying physics, as achieving transformative change depends fundamentally on the interactions of these underlying processes. The scientific challenge common to both socio-economic and hydrological systems lies in their pronounced spatio-temporal heterogeneity and variability within urban environments. This variability arises from the highly nonlinear interactions among the relevant variables, which produce extreme multiscale fluctuations and complex causal chains, beginning with the fact that responses are not proportional to the initial stimuli or forces.

Urban geosciences introduce additional complexity compared to traditional geosciences: their physical scales are much smaller, requiring not only higher-resolution observation technologies, which is already a significant challenge, but also involve much shorter interaction times. This shorter timescale is particularly crucial for prediction, as it limits the predictability of these systems. In this context, universal multifractals (multiplicative stochastic processes) likely provide the most effective framework for establishing a common foundation that supports more diverse and collectively potent approaches to transformative environmental change. Gaining a deeper understanding of multifractal phase transitions and their practical application, alongside alternative innovations, is key to fostering transformative change.

To promote such transitions, this presentation will focus on non-trivial symmetries to address much of the complexity outlined earlier. A key example is scale symmetries, which allow for the definition of scale-independent observables, in contrast to classical observables that are heavily dependent on scale. This scale dependence creates several challenges, starting with the fact that the models based on these observables are also scale-dependent. Scale-independent observables, often referred to as singularities, are significant because they capture the divergence of classical observables as resolution increases, or as we look at progressively smaller scales. The strength of this approach lies in its application to urban geosciences, specifically for: (i) defining environmental indicators for cities and their characteristics, (ii) monetizing the amenities provided by blue-green solutions in urban areas and contextualizing them socio-economically on a large scale, and (iii) developing a new form of multifractal evaluation for environmental balance - altogether enabling "transformative chift" towards the sheared value economy.

The authors sincerely acknowledge the partial financial support provided by the TIGA CfHf project (https://hmco.enpc.fr/portfolio-archive/tiga/).

How to cite: Tchiguirinskaia, I., Drouen, G., Qiu, Y., Versini, P.-A., Gires, A., and Schertzer, D.: Multifractal Phase Transitions for the “Transformative Shift” Towards a Shared Value Economy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20554, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20554, 2025.

EGU25-20565 | Posters on site | NP3.1

Combining Artificial Intelligence and Multifractals for Precipitation Nowcasting: the UM-GAN Example. 

Daniel Schertzer, Hai Zhou, and Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia

Intermittency is a defining characteristic of rainfall, yet it is largely overlooked in most IA nowcasting models. We emphasise its theoretical significance at various stages of the prediction process, from training to assessing its accuracy, including its dispersion relative to the intrinsic limits of predictability. 

Specifically, we develop a hybrid framework based on:

  • - The generative adversarial network (GAN), a recently developed technique for training IA models through an adversarial process;
  • Universal multifractals (UM), stochastic models of intermittency that are physically based on the cascade paradigm. They are universal in the sense that they are statistically attractive to other processes and depend only on three scale-independent parameters that are physically meaningful.

 In terms of physical relevance, we evaluate the nowcasting performance of the hybrid UM-GAN model and other baseline models (ConvLSTM, GAN) using continuous and categorical scores, as well as UM analysis in comparison to the observations. The results indicate that UM-GAN achieves the highest scores and accuracy, particularly demonstrating superior performance at lead times of 30 minutes and 60 minutes.

How to cite: Schertzer, D., Zhou, H., and Tchiguirinskaia, I.: Combining Artificial Intelligence and Multifractals for Precipitation Nowcasting: the UM-GAN Example., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20565, 2025.

Assessing grain yield (GY), irrigation water productivity (IWP), and irrigation crop water use efficiency (ICWUE) provides valuable insights into optimizing irrigation water use while maintaining crop yield. For this purpose, irrigation is varied either in crop phenological stages or based on the maximum allowable depletion/deficit (MAD) or crop evapotranspiration (ETC) or ratio of irrigation water to cumulative pan evaporation. No study has been identified that analyzed and compared GY, IWP, and ICWUE for drip and flood irrigated treatments based on MAD, ETC, and conventional practices for wheat. This study analyzed and compared GY, IWP, and ICWUE among drip-irrigated (DI) and flood-irrigated (FI) treatments based on MAD, ETC, and conventional practices by conducting field experiments for the wheat crop during 2023-24. The treatments were 50% MAD (DI), 50% MAD (FI), 100% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (FI), 60% ETC (DI), 40% ETC (DI), and conventional practice replication (referred to as farmers’ field replication). Compared to farmers’ field replication, GY increased by 30.5%, 16.9%, 23.2%, 15.6%, 9.6%, and 0.4% in 50% MAD (DI), 50% MAD (FI), 100% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (FI), 60% ETC (DI) treatments, respectively. Furthermore, compared to the farmers’ field replication, the irrigation amount in 50% MAD (DI), 50% MAD (FI), 100% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (FI), 60% ETC (DI), and 40% ETC (DI) reduced by 16.4%, 7.9%, 18.3%, 36.8%, 33.9%, 52.4%, and 65.5%, respectively. IWP values in 50% MAD (DI), 50% MAD (FI), 100% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (DI), 80% ETC (FI), 60% ETC (DI), 40% ETC (DI), and farmers’ field replication were 29, 23.6, 28, 34, 39.2, 50.3, and 18.6 kg/ha-mm, respectively. For the same level of irrigation, IWP and ICWUE were higher in DI treatments compared to FI treatments. The values of IWP and ICWUE in 50% MAD (DI) increased by 23.1% and 41.5%, respectively compared to 50% MAD (FI). Similarly, IWP and ICWUE in 80% ETC (DI) increased by 20% compared to 80% ETC (FI). Among the treatments, the 50% MAD (DI) and 100% ETC (DI) produced significantly higher GY of 5336.2 kg/ha and 5036.3 kg/ha, respectively. Between these two treatments, GY was higher in 50% MAD (DI). This can be attributed to the MAD in the 100% ETC (DI) treatment reaching 67% during the high-water demand growth stage, which exceeded the MAD level in the 50% MAD (DI) treatment. This study suggested that with the priority to produce the higher grain yield and save irrigation water (16.4 to 18.3%) as compared to existing irrigation practices followed by the farmers in the study region, 50% MAD (DI) or 100% ETC (DI) treatment must be employed. With the priority of saving the highest irrigation amount (52.4 %) without compensating for the GY, 60% ETC (DI) can be utilized by the farmers in the local region.

How to cite: Giri, G., Upreti, H., and Singhal, G. D.: Evaluation of Wheat Yield and Water Productivity for Drip and Flood Irrigated Treatments Based on Maximum Allowable Deficit, Crop Evapotranspiration, and Conventional Practices, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-673, 2025.

EGU25-1271 | Orals | SSS9.10

Enhancing irrigation resilience through brackish groundwater desalination: a case study in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin 

Peter Reeve, Julien Anese, Ben Mullins, Ilka Wallis, Okke Batelaan, Howard Fallowfield, Holger Maier, Seth Westra, Kym Walton, Enys Watt, Darren Graetz, and Michael Leonard

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is Australia’s largest and most critical agricultural region, but its water resources face significant pressure due to climate variability and rainfall and runoff reductions under climate change. To ensure the resilience of irrigated agriculture, there is a need to diversify water sources and integrate innovative water management solutions. Brackish groundwater represents a largely untapped alternative water resource that, when desalinated, could supplement traditional surface water and fresh groundwater supplies. However, its adoption in agriculture is hindered by factors such as high costs, environmental concerns regarding brine disposal, and regulatory complexities.

This study investigates the potential for brackish groundwater desalination to enhance the resilience of irrigated agriculture in the MDB under uncertain water availability. A demonstration site established in South Australia’s Riverland region showcases a containerised reverse osmosis (RO) system producing around 100 kL/day of freshwater to irrigate a section of almond orchard and disposing of brine via aquifer injection into a naturally saline surface aquifer. This novel approach has the potential to lower capital costs and minimise land use compared to conventional evaporation ponds. Insights from the project include the importance of hydrogeological assessments, the scalability of aquifer-based brine disposal, and the feasibility of low-recovery RO systems optimised for agricultural contexts. Ensuring safe surface water-groundwater interactions has been a key focus of the project.

The study is also developing a cost calculator to enable professional end users to examine the potential for desalination to be integrated into their irrigation systems. This analysis has also been extended to inform a number of future outlook scenarios, including the integration of desalination to help mitigate the impacts of drought, and to identify scenarios where desalination could enable transformations in productivity. Analysis of climate change scenarios forms part of this analysis.

Key findings emphasise the importance of site-specific design, industry collaboration, and policy frameworks to facilitate the adoption of desalination and other non-conventional alternative water sources in agriculture. By helping to address the barriers to implementation, this work contributes to enhancing the sustainability and resilience of irrigated agriculture in water-scarce regions like the MDB, offering valuable insights for broader global applications. The findings provide a pathway to tackle uncertainties in water resource availability and to support sustainable agricultural development.

How to cite: Reeve, P., Anese, J., Mullins, B., Wallis, I., Batelaan, O., Fallowfield, H., Maier, H., Westra, S., Walton, K., Watt, E., Graetz, D., and Leonard, M.: Enhancing irrigation resilience through brackish groundwater desalination: a case study in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1271, 2025.

EGU25-1513 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Integrating soil-based sensor technologies for irrigation decision support in date palm trees 

Josphat Ongeso, Nang War War May Maung, Tom Groenveld, and Naftali Lazarovitch

Date palms, an economically important crop, are extensively grown in the Arava Valley, Israel. Despite their adaptation to arid climates, they are intensively irrigated, commonly with two high-flow emitters per tree, based on recommended amounts derived from crop evapotranspiration estimates, to ensure high productivity and manage soil salinity. Until now, date palm farmers in Israel have made only limited use of soil sensors for irrigation management. This study aimed to integrate soil-based sensors for irrigation decision support into date palm cultivation. We hypothesized that increasing the irrigated area around the tree and giving the trees less water than recommended would increase water use efficiency and maintain optimal yields. To achieve this, sixteen fully mature date palm trees were irrigated under two irrigation systems: a larger irrigated area around the tree with fifty drippers (D) and a smaller area with two emitters per tree (E), both having the same total flow rate; and two irrigation levels: 50% and 100%. Soil-based sensors (TDR, tensiometers, and suction cups) were used to continuously monitor soil water status and electrical conductivity (ECpw) at depths of 40 and 80 cm. Fruit yield and quality (i.e., fruit mass, blistering, and moisture level) were also analyzed. Across all treatments, soil water content was higher at 80 cm, with E100 and D100 showing the highest values (20–50%), while D50 and E50 showed the lowest values, particularly at 40 cm depth (10–20%). Soil tension values displayed the following order, E50>D50>D100≈E100, at both depths. ECpw on D100 and E100 averaged 3 dS/m throughout most of the growing season at both depths, while D50 and E50 showed elevated levels, especially at the lower depth, of up to 26 dS/m (D50). There was no significant difference in yield or yield quality between treatments. It is concluded that the irrigation system had less impact than the irrigation level on ECpw and soil water status. Therefore, sensors show an enormous potential to provide farmers and researchers with data that can be integrated into irrigation scheduling algorithms.

How to cite: Ongeso, J., War War May Maung, N., Groenveld, T., and Lazarovitch, N.: Integrating soil-based sensor technologies for irrigation decision support in date palm trees, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1513, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1513, 2025.

EGU25-1515 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Increasing Water Use Efficiency in Date Palm Cultivation with Plant-Based Sensors 

Nang Maung, Josphat Ongeso, Thomas Groenveld, and Naftali Lazarovitch

Date palm cultivation in Israel, particularly in the Arava Valley with its high evaporative demand, relies on high-frequency irrigation with saline water. Irrigation plays a crucial role in date palm growth, soil salinity, and yield quality. However, over-irrigation not only wastes water resources but also contaminates water bodies with agrochemicals. Plant-based sensors offer a promising avenue for real-time monitoring of plant physiological responses to water stress, providing valuable insights into plant water status. The objective of this study was to optimize irrigation scheduling by using plant-based sensors to monitor date palm responses to varying irrigation systems and amounts, thereby establishing threshold parameters for effective irrigation management. Sixteen fully mature date palm trees were irrigated under two irrigation systems: a larger irrigated area with fifty number of drippers (D) and a smaller area with two emitters per tree (E), both having the same flow rate; and two irrigation levels: 50% and 100%. Sap flux density, frond growth rate, and stem daily shrinkage were continuously measured by automated sensors, while frond growth rates were also periodically manually measured. Additionally, stomatal conductance was measured biweekly using the LI-600. The 100% irrigation treatment significantly increased the frond growth rate, stomatal conductance, and sap flux density compared to the 50% irrigation. However, the 50% irrigation treatment increased maximum daily shrinkage. There was no difference in yield between 50% and 100% irrigation. No effect of the irrigation systems on the measured parameters was seen. The integration of plant-based sensors, for measuring plant physiological processes, into date palm cultivation has the potential to enable real-time monitoring of the water stress effect, facilitating precise irrigation management.

 

How to cite: Maung, N., Ongeso, J., Groenveld, T., and Lazarovitch, N.: Increasing Water Use Efficiency in Date Palm Cultivation with Plant-Based Sensors, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1515, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1515, 2025.

EGU25-2125 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

An improved optical trapezoid model to identify irrigation water ponds in the arid irrigation district using Google Earth Engine 

Xinyi Chen, Lu Yang, Ximin Qian, Yuxuan Liu, and Songhao Shang

In arid regions conducting flood irrigation, irrigation practice often results in the temporary formation of water ponds in the cropland, which plays a critical role in agricultural productivity. The prompt identification of irrigation water ponds in irrigation districts is important for the effective management of irrigation water. Utilizing the OPtical TRApezoid Model (OPTRAM) for soil moisture estimation, we have proposed an improved version of OPTRAM aimed to identify irrigation water ponds in irrigation district using Sentinel-2 data through Google Earth Engine platform. While the wet edge determined from OPTRAM refer to those with saturated status, irrigation ponds are usually oversaturated regions. Therefore, an additional threshold was added and calibrated to the model in accordance with the irrigated area to identify irrigation water ponds. The improved OPTRAM was applied in Hetao Irrigation District (HID) of Northwest China from 2016 to 2023, where autumn irrigation applied in late autumn after crop harvesting was considered. The identified distributions of autumn irrigation were validated with observations from field survey and statistical data, and were also compared with other remote sensing products. Results show that the proposed model is effective in identifying irrigation ponds. The overall accuracy is 0.90 based on the observations from field survey, with mean absolute relative errors for irrigated areas across sub-irrigation districts recorded as 20.55%, 8.10%, 12.83%, and 11.38%, respectively, when compared with statistical data. With regard to temporal and spatial distributions, autumn irrigated croplands are mainly concentrated in Jiefangzha sub-irrigation district while being scattered across other sub-irrigation districts, depicting an overall decreasing trend in the autumn irrigated area. In summary, the proposed model performed well in identifying irrigation ponds and can offer valuable support for irrigation management.

How to cite: Chen, X., Yang, L., Qian, X., Liu, Y., and Shang, S.: An improved optical trapezoid model to identify irrigation water ponds in the arid irrigation district using Google Earth Engine, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2125, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2125, 2025.

In India, governmental agencies and industries are working to promote the adoption of micro-irrigation to enhance irrigation efficiency and farm outputs. However, despite these efforts, the level of development achieved has been unsatisfactory. Improving the irrigation efficiency of existing projects can conserve water to irrigate new areas or meet the needs of the non-agricultural sector. This approach is cost-effective and environmentally sustainable, as it minimizes the need to create additional irrigation potential, which can be resource-intensive and have adverse environmental impacts. A social survey was conducted in the Gadarjudda minor canal command area of the Upper Ganga Canal of Roorkee, Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India to assess the socio-economic and technical factors influencing farmers' perspectives on adopting micro-irrigation systems. Data has been collected through structured interviews across the canal system's head, middle, and tail regions. The study analyzed key aspects: age, education, occupation, cropping patterns, landholding, irrigation sources, and techno-economic feasibility. The results indicated that while farmers had medium awareness, knowledge, and a positive attitude toward micro-irrigation, their low purchasing capacity significantly hindered adoption. Despite a high willingness to adopt the technology, financial constraints remain a significant barrier, even with existing government schemes. The study concludes that, while there is strong interest in adopting micro-irrigation, targeted financial incentives, subsidies, and technical training are essential to overcoming economic constraints, especially for small and marginal farmers, to promote sustainable water management in the canal command area.

How to cite: Chourasia, S. K. and Pandey, A.: Farmers' Perspectives on the Adoption of Micro-Irrigation in Canal Command Areas for Sustainable Water Management Management, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5466, 2025.

EGU25-9096 | Orals | SSS9.10

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Yields, Water Balance, and Irrigation Strategies in the La Balisa Sub-Catchment 

Mª Teresa Jiménez-Aguirre, Garde-Cabellos Sofía, Galea Carmen, Bárbara Soriano, Paloma Esteve-Bengoechea, Irene Blanco-Gutierrez, Jon Lizaso, Carlos H. Díaz-Ambrona, David Pérez, Mario Ballesteros, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Isabel Bardají, and Ana M. Tarquis

Climate change (CC) poses a critical threat to Mediterranean agri-food systems, with increasing water scarcity and climate variability jeopardising agricultural sustainability. This study assesses the impacts of CC on cereal yields and water balance in the La Balisa Sub-catchment (SCAB) in Segovia province, Spain, a region where rainfed winter cereals, such as barley and wheat, dominate agricultural production. Using a combination of hydrological and crop modelling frameworks (SWAT and AquaCrop), the research evaluates water demand, crop performance, and potential adaptation strategies, including an increase in irrigation areas, improvements in irrigation efficiency, and the selection of cereal varieties with different growth cycles.

The analysis integrates six global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC’s AR6 (SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5), regionalised by AEMET, to project water availability and agricultural productivity under future scenarios. Baseline data reflects current agricultural and climatic conditions, serving as a reference to quantifying the effects of CC on yields and water resources. The study focuses on understanding the phenological responses of barley and wheat, a key rainfed cereal crop in the region, to shifting precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and water stress.

Preliminary findings suggest that rising water stress and climate extremes could significantly reduce yields and increase water demand for agricultural purposes without adaptation. However, strategies such as expanding irrigation coverage, improving water-use efficiency, and optimising crop management through varietal selection show promise in mitigating these effects. The study highlights the need for adaptive management and integrating advanced irrigation and crop management strategies to sustain cereal production and water balance in semi-arid Mediterranean regions facing CC challenges.

How to cite: Jiménez-Aguirre, M. T., Sofía, G.-C., Carmen, G., Soriano, B., Esteve-Bengoechea, P., Blanco-Gutierrez, I., Lizaso, J., Díaz-Ambrona, C. H., Pérez, D., Ballesteros, M., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Bardají, I., and Tarquis, A. M.: Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Cereal Yields, Water Balance, and Irrigation Strategies in the La Balisa Sub-Catchment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9096, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9096, 2025.

The agricultural sector faces a significant challenge: producing more food and generating higher revenue using less water. This challenge is exacerbated by the increasing scarcity of water resources due to climate change, population growth, and other factors, making optimal irrigation management crucial for sustainable agriculture. One of the primary tasks in this context is intra-seasonal irrigation scheduling under a limited seasonal water supply. This involves distributing a finite amount of water across multiple irrigation events throughout the growing season while considering the crop response to water stress at various growth stages. Effective management of this process using a deficit irrigation (DI) strategy can lead to improved water productivity and crop yields, thereby addressing the dual goals of food security and conservation of water resources in agriculture.   

This study aims to advance deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for DI systems and to benchmark a new deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach against existing DRL strategies [1] for the closed-loop control of irrigation scheduling using the Aquacrop-OSPy model [2]. The evaluation is conducted under various conditions of water scarcity and climate uncertainty, incorporating detailed information about the state of the irrigation system and the climate environment. By considering these factors, the presentation provides a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of DRL in optimizing irrigation practices, particularly in scenarios characterized by limited water availability and changing climatic conditions.

 

[1] T. D. Kelly, T. Foster, D. M. Schultz: Assessing the value of deep reinforcement learning for irrigation scheduling, Smart Agricultural Technology, 7 (2024), 100403, doi: 10.1016/j.atech.2024.100403.

[2] T. D. Kelly and Timothy Foster: AquaCrop-OSPy: Bridging the gap between research and practice in crop-water modeling, In: Agricultural Water Management 254 (2021), 106976, doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106976.

How to cite: Schütze, N. and Kunze, J. B.: Benchmarking deep reinforcement learning strategies for the scheduling of deficit irrigation systems under climate uncertainty, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9228, 2025.

EGU25-9266 | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Decision Support Software (DSS) in irrigation management: application to small farms 

Alessandro Casasso, Giacomo Tavernelli, Franco Tesio, Dario Vallauri, and Cristina Allisiardi

The importance of irrigation water management has increased in recent years with the declining summer availability due to climate change, especially for surface waters. Along with an increase of efficiency, the diffusion of pressure irrigation systems (sprinklers, drip irrigation, pivot, etc.) allows for a demand-based irrigation, overcoming the limitations of turn-based management typical of flood irrigation. The challenge of correctly addressing this approach shift is addressed within the GUARDIANS project (https://guardians-project.eu/), funded by the Horizon Europe program. GUARDIANS involves 22 partners from 9 countries in the development and demonstration of IT technologies, specifically designed for small farms, in several study areas. One of these case studies is the irrigation reservoir of Rivoira (Boves, Piedmont, NW Italy), built in 2017 along with a pipeline network that complements the existing irrigation canals. This reservoir, with a capacity of 42000 m3, is supplied by one of these canals and is connected to a pressure irrigation network that can serve about 300 ha; initially conceived as a "last resort basin", it has become the primary water supply source for several farms.

One of the approaches adopted for on-demand irrigation is the use of Decision Support Software (DSS) based on remote sensing satellite images with indicators such as NDWI (Normalized Difference Water Index) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). A major limitation of this approach was found in the limit of 1 ha surface due to the spatial resolution of satellite images (10 m for Sentinel 2), which is hardly met in small farms contexts, and in the scarce correlation between indicators such as NDWI and the ground-based measures of volumetric water content (VWC). The performance of DSS could be improved with ground-based VWC sensors, but their cost is unsustainable for small farms. Low-cost sensors with remote transmission, which have been recently released in the mass-market, have therefore been tested. This solution, which can partially bridge the gap between small and large farms, could be implemented through specific training courses.

This work is carried out within the framework of the GUARDIANS project, funded by the European Union through the Horizon Europe Programme - Farm2Fork (Grant Agreement n. 101084468).

How to cite: Casasso, A., Tavernelli, G., Tesio, F., Vallauri, D., and Allisiardi, C.: Decision Support Software (DSS) in irrigation management: application to small farms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9266, 2025.

EGU25-9907 | Orals | SSS9.10

Irrigation Canal System- A Potential Source for Water Supply in Nearby Water-Deficit Areas Located in A Semi-Arid Zone in India 

Surendra Kumar Mishra, Damodar Sharma, Rajendra Prasad Pandey, and Rahul Dev Garg

Water is the most valuable element for life on the planet Earth. Its availability is, however, not equitable in time and space, leading to water scarcity at places, and it is a pressing global concern, specifically in arid and semi-arid regions. Some areas of Fatehpur Sikri Block in Agra district (India) are facing acute water scarcity not only for irrigation but also for drinking water. Notably, about 65 to 70% population of Fatehpur Sikri is dependent on agriculture. This study explores the possibility of providing water to the water-scarce area by lining the unlined Fatehpur Sikri Branch Canal (FSBC). These canals experience significant seepage and evaporation. These losses diminish the availability of water for other (more) essential purposes. The feasibility is explored by lining the branch canal and/or its distributaries/minors until a sufficient amount is saved without significantly affecting the authorized users of FSBC.
The critical annual water requirement of the water-scarce area (= about 5000 hectares) lying in Fatehpur Sikri block has been estimated as 4.60 MCM for drinking water and 9.13 MCM for irrigation using CROPWAT, totaling to 13.73 MCM. The losses from both unlined and lined canals were estimated empirically for the computation of water saving for diversion to the water deficit area. FSBC consists of a Branch Canal, a few distributaries, and a number of minors. Seepage losses were estimated for lining of (i) Fatehpur Sikri Branch Canal only; (ii) distributaries and minors only; (iii) a part of Fatehpur Sikri Branch Canal, up to 32.960 km (or 23 miles) only; (iv) Distributaries only, for effectiveness and construction cost point of view (v) partial part of FSBC up to 14.400 km (vi) selected minors only (vii) combination of all distributaries with selected minors only, and (viii) combination of all distributaries with a part of FSBC only. The canal was operating for 168 days in the study year according to the usual practice. The per annum water savings in these cases have been estimated as 67.377, 25.902, 31.306, 8.210, 13.880, 14.660, 13.885 and 14.404 MCM, respectively. It can thus be inferred that the lining can be an effective solution for water saving and diverting to the water-scarce area. The lining of distributaries with selected minors only or selected minors only or a combination of all distributaries with a part of FSBC only or FSBC till 14.400 km only can yield sufficient savings, i.e. more than 13.69 MCM. The study finds that the lining of FSBC up to 14.400 km is the most viable and pragmatic solution to address the water scarcity problem in the water-deficit area. The other canals can be left as they are, for uniform groundwater recharge in the area.

How to cite: Kumar Mishra, S., Sharma, D., Prasad Pandey, R., and Dev Garg, R.: Irrigation Canal System- A Potential Source for Water Supply in Nearby Water-Deficit Areas Located in A Semi-Arid Zone in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9907, 2025.

EGU25-10344 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Evaluating irrigation strategies for potato production at a sub-humid site under current conditions and future climate scenarios 

Fathi Alfinur Rizqi, Arno Kastelliz, and Reinhard Nolz

Climate change is already having an impact on agricultural production even in sub-humid regions such as parts of Austria that have not yet been confronted with the problem of limited water availability. Moreover, conditions are set to worsen in the future. In order to meet the expected increased irrigation demand in particular regions and conserve water resources in accordance with the EU Water Framework Directive, water resources for crop production should be managed with foresight and the focus should be on efficient irrigation strategies. This approach is in line with broader efforts to adapt agricultural systems to evolving environmental challenges.

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of irrigation strategies on potato production in north-eastern Austria as well as future developments under the given local conditions. The potato is important for food security both regionally and globally. Potatoes were grown for the study in 2023 and 2024. The trials were set up as a block system in larger plots with a row/dam spacing of 0.75 m and a length of around 150 m. The variants were irrigated with different irrigation systems: drip lines on the dams, sprinklers on a pipe system, and a hose reel with irrigation boom. The potato yield and the irrigation water applied were measured. The actual irrigation strategies as well as future conditions were simulated and evaluated using the FAO AquaCrop crop growth model. The simulations utilized local meteorological data sets from a nearby weather station and future climate scenarios based on RCP 4.5 projections.

In general, the yield differences between the two study years were greater than between the irrigation variants. Drip irrigation resulted in the largest crop water productivity, but the absolute yields showed a more differentiated picture. The evaluation of observed and simulated data from 2023 showed that sprinkler irrigation delivered better production results, while drip irrigation had the lowest yield. In 2024, the drip-irrigated variant produced the largest yields. On average, the boom irrigation was performing best. The AquaCrop simulations reflect a similar picture. In addition, simulated irrigation strategies show how sufficient potato yields are possible with limited water availability. In this respect, more specific irrigation strategies that better incorporate the actual environmental conditions are needed. The climate scenario simulated with AquaCrop for the given site shows future yields and the corresponding water requirements. The results could serve as a basis for adapting local irrigation strategies to changing climatic conditions in order to enable sustainable potato production north-eastern Austria.

How to cite: Rizqi, F. A., Kastelliz, A., and Nolz, R.: Evaluating irrigation strategies for potato production at a sub-humid site under current conditions and future climate scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10344, 2025.

EGU25-11610 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Achieving near-complete hydraulic emission uniformity in Trapezoidal Drip Irrigation Units fed from the Major Base 

Salvatore Samuel Palermo and Giorgio Baiamonte

In recent years, considerable efforts have been dedicated to developing simple solutions for designing one-lateral and rectangular drip irrigation systems (Baiamonte, 2018). However, the trapezoidal shape that often aligns more naturally with the division of agricultural fields, has been poorly attempted; furthermore, it serves as a fundamental model from which rectangular and triangular configurations can be derived as specific cases. Building on previous research, new analytical solutions for trapezoidal units have been proposed (Baiamonte and Palermo, 2025), demonstrating that the rectangular shape (RCT) is a special case of these solutions. Moreover, a comprehensive performance analysis of trapezoidal units was conducted using the pressure head tolerance concept. Two types of trapezoidal units were evaluated based on their feed points: major base-fed (MJR) and minor base-fed (MNR). Interestingly, the MJR-fed trapezoidal unit exhibited higher hydraulic emission uniformity than both the RCT and MNR configurations. This improved performance is attributed to lower manifold inside diameters, reduced inlet pressure heads, and a smaller coefficient of variation in the pressure head distribution. As a result, MJR is recommended over both RCT and MNR. An application demonstrating the near-complete hydraulic emission uniformity achievable with MJR trapezoidal drip irrigation units is presented and analyzed, further supporting the effectiveness of the proposed design approach.

References

Baiamonte, G. (2018). Explicit Relationships for Optimal Designing of Rectangular Microirrigation Units on Uniform Slopes: the IRRILAB Software Application. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 153:151-168, https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.compag.2018.08.005

Baiamonte, G., Palermo, S. (2024). Designing Trapezoidal Drip Irrigation Units laid on Flat Fields. J Irrig Drain E-ASCE. Doi: 10.1061/JIDEDH/IRENG-10437

How to cite: Palermo, S. S. and Baiamonte, G.: Achieving near-complete hydraulic emission uniformity in Trapezoidal Drip Irrigation Units fed from the Major Base, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11610, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11610, 2025.

EGU25-11670 | Orals | SSS9.10

An Integrated Management Approach for the Potential Reuse of Olive Pickling Waters in Olive Tree Irrigation 

Gonzalo Martinez, Javier Hernán, Ana María Laguna, José Manuel Martínez-García, and Juan Vicente Giráldez

Olive pickling industries use large amounts of water in their production. Depending on the type of product, water usage can range between 1 and 6 m³ per ton of olives, with composition varying significantly depending on the processing step. Generally, the main issues with these waters are their high organic matter and salt content. They are mostly stored in evaporation ponds for treatment. In parallel, olive tree production faces serious threats from water scarcity due to climate change, especially in Mediterranean areas. Therefore, alternative water sources are needed for olive tree irrigation, allowing for the reuse of resources consumed by the sector and contributing to a circular economy.

This work presents an integrated management approach where olive pickling waters are automatically analyzed and stored, provided the electrical conductivity (EC) is less than 8 dS m⁻¹. These waters are subsequently used for precision irrigation of olive trees. The system is based on open-source hardware and software associated with an IoT platform, with units located both in the industry and the olive orchard. The industry unit automatically measures, analyzes, and controls the EC of the water produced, selectively separating it for irrigation. Meanwhile, the field unit monitors soil status (soil moisture and EC) and potential evapotranspiration to determine irrigation requirements.

The system has been operational for two years in an olive pickling industry in southwestern Spain, where most of the fruits are processed as Spanish-style green olives. During the experiment, almost 40% of the controlled waters had an EC below 10 dS m⁻¹, accounting for about 15,000 m³ of water that would otherwise need to be evaporated from a 2.5 ha pond. Instead, this water was used to irrigate more than twice as much land. Olive trees were irrigated with water having an EC of approximately 7 dS m⁻¹ over two seasons and compared with control trees that received no irrigation.

In the first season, deficit irrigation was applied, while in the second season, irrigation was based on crop evapotranspiration plus a 20% leaching fraction. In both seasons, higher crop yields (though not statistically significant), fruit weight (significant, p<0.05), oil content (significant, p<0.05), and pulp-to-stone ratio (significant, p<0.05) were observed. Soil EC significantly increased in the irrigated trees, reaching up to 1 and 1.5 dS m-1 (1:5 extraction ratio) in the top 0.6 m after the first and second irrigation seasons, respectively.

Salt buildup in the soil indicates that medium-to-long-term sustainability of this type of irrigation must be considered, especially if natural rainfall is insufficient for adequate leaching. Soil modeling can be useful for assessing risks and deciding whether irrigation can continue in subsequent seasons. Nonetheless, using parts of the olive pickling waters for irrigation can be seen as a more sustainable alternative to evaporation for treating such waste.

How to cite: Martinez, G., Hernán, J., Laguna, A. M., Martínez-García, J. M., and Giráldez, J. V.: An Integrated Management Approach for the Potential Reuse of Olive Pickling Waters in Olive Tree Irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11670, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11670, 2025.

The spatiotemporal co-optimization of irrigation strategies represents a major leap forward in climate-smart agriculture, addressing the complex interactions between climate, crops, and soil management across both temporal and spatial scales. This study introduces a hybrid methodology that combines agricultural system modeling, machine learning, and economic analysis to optimize irrigation practices in Xinjiang, China. The primary goal is to balance crop yield, water use efficiency, and profitability under varying climate conditions, thereby advancing sustainable agricultural practices in one of China’s most arid regions.

Our study establishes three optimization objectives: yield, profit, and water use efficiency. Under the water use efficiency objective, optimized irrigation strategies significantly reduced water demand. During the historical period (2000–2020), water use decreased by an average of 16% (ranging from 14% to 21%), while under future climate scenarios (2051–2070), reductions of up to 25% (16% to 32%) are projected compared to conventional local practices and trial-based recommendations. For the yield objective, cotton yields increased by 8% during the historical period and are expected to rise by 15% under future climate conditions. Finally, under the profit objective, farmers' net incomes grew by 12% during the historical period and are projected to increase by 16% in future scenarios. The study also explores the scalability of the proposed framework, demonstrating its applicability across various sub-regions within Xinjiang, each characterized by distinct climatic and soil conditions. Sensitivity analyses reinforce the robustness of the optimization approach, confirming its potential to improve water management and agricultural sustainability on a regional scale.

This study highlights the transformative potential of spatiotemporal co-optimization for achieving multiple objectives in irrigation management. It introduces a digital framework tailored for site-specific irrigation strategies, setting a new standard for sustainable agricultural practices in Xinjiang. The findings provide a scalable model that can be adapted to other arid and semi-arid regions, supporting global initiatives in sustainable water management in the face of evolving climate conditions.

How to cite: Chen, B., Zhao, G., Yao, L., and Yu, Q.: Sustainable Irrigation Strategies for Cotton Production in Xinjiang, China: Balancing Yield, Profitability, and Sustainability under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12369, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12369, 2025.

EGU25-12866 | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Co-creating a Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystem (WEFE) transition in irrigated agriculture systems within the Spanish Duero River Basin . 

Leonor Rodriguez-Sinobas, Xenia Schneider, Sara Esperanza Matendo, Maite Sanchez-Revuelta, and Daniel Alberto Segovia Cardozo

Water, energy, and food security are essential for human health and  development. However the increasing demand for natural resources, has surpassed the capacity of multiple ecosystems and is compromising their sustainability and resilience. The management of these resources is interconnected, and cannot be managed independently, since water and energy are essential for food production. Also their management is crucial for the maintenance of ecosystems, so the WEFE NEXUS emerges as a resource management strategy.

In the Spanish demarcation of the Duero River basin, water scarcity and water stress have become a concern (especially in the main water consumer: irrigated agriculture), which, together with the increase in energy prices, have affected food production and degraded ecosystems. All these WEFE challenges have been traditionally carried out independently, contrary to the international community recommendation of treating them together as WEFE Nexus in order to address their interrelationships and achieve a balance. To promote and co-define WEFE-Nexus transition actions to improve local WEFE-Nexus conditions, four workshops with stakeholders have been performed. The first one aimed to bring together various stakeholders from different institutions or organizations working in the different WEFE NEXUS entities, to concretize a diverse work group and present the WEFE NEXUS methodology through the RRI, applying the RRI Roadmap ©TM, and begin to identify the main challenges from a WEFE NEXUS perspective. The second workshop presented the concrete vision of WEFE NEXUS, the concepts and vision of an expert on the topic, as well as his experiences and points of view. Based on this information and the challenges identified in the first workshop, the serious game methodology was used to analyse in a positive, negative and alternative way possible measures and actions to be to address the challenges. Identifying the advantages and limitations of these actions. The third workshop presented the “as it is” scenario with real relevant data, to set numbers to the challenges identified by the stakeholders themselves. Based on this, a codefined vision of the objective scenario “as it should be” was developed, proposing the priority measures and actions on which the NEL should focus. Co-creating a WEFE NEXUS transition plan in the fourth workshop.

The co-created WEFE NEXUS plan aims at achieving a resilient irrigated agriculture in the Spanish Douro Basin, maintaining the gross income of farmers under the potential future scenarios of water stress, energy increase and agricultural inputs’ cost. It focuses on optimizing the use of resources (water, energy, and fertilizers) for food production while preserving the NEL's natural and productive ecosystems. This plan has four measures: 1) Improve fertilizer use efficiency, 2) Increase energy efficiency, 3) Optimize water use efficiency and 4) Reduce energy dependence. Likewise, it includes eight concrete and complementary actions, which are evaluated with 10 indicators.

How to cite: Rodriguez-Sinobas, L., Schneider, X., Matendo, S. E., Sanchez-Revuelta, M., and Segovia Cardozo, D. A.: Co-creating a Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystem (WEFE) transition in irrigated agriculture systems within the Spanish Duero River Basin ., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12866, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12866, 2025.

EGU25-12906 | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Toward sustainable irrigation development - case study for Slovenia 

Vesna Zupanc, Marina Pintar, Matjaž Glavan, Špela Železnikar, Luka Žvokelj, and Rozalija Cvejić

Slovenia is one of the countries whose agriculture will be even more susceptible to droughts in the future and is also one of the countries with one of the lowest percentages of agricultural land equipped with irrigation systems. Less than 4% of all land potentially suitable for irrigation (8,000 ha) is equipped with irrigation systems, which means that the majority of agriculture is dependent on rain. In order to improve the situation and pursue an appropriate development policy, the Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan for the period 2023–2027 provides funds for the construction of individual irrigation systems, the purchase of equipment and the construction of multi-user irrigation systems.

The proposed measures to enhance irrigation include (i) scaling up irrigation systems, (ii) modernizing irrigation systems (replacing sprinkler systems with drip irrigation, repairing distribution and supply lines and modernizing pumps), (iii) improving efficiency through transfer of property rights (improved irrigation management) and (iv) integrating tools to support irrigation decisions into daily agricultural production.

Our analysis shows that the water use efficiency of the existing irrigation systems is quite high, as closed pressurized systems with sprinklers and drip irrigation were used from the beginning, while large-scale irrigation systems were only introduced in the 1990s. However, obtaining documentation for the construction of new irrigation systems is a lengthy and complex process, as it must take into account the protection of nature, water bodies and cultural heritage, as well as the  existing infrastructure. Studies show that there is no solution in the form of simplified legislation that would lower the quality standards of irrigation development. Appropriate approaches are the organization of applications and participation. A system of operational support must be created for investors and producers to help them manage the difficult process of obtaining permits and approvals for irrigation facilities. This requires better organization of work at the local level and stronger support for investors and producers at the national level.

Of the commonly available tools for improved irrigation management, Slovenia has recently introduced a national decision support system for irrigation (SPON). SPON combines the current water content in the soil, the development phase of the plant and the weather forecast. On this basis, it calculates the plants' water requirements on a daily basis, which it provides in the form of irrigation recommendations at plot level. The use of SPON reduces overall water consumption. The possibility of nutrient leaching is reduced, irrigation rations are shortened and the energy consumption of the pumping station is reduced. SPON is available to all farmers in Slovenia (www.spon.si) and is supported by the Slovenian Environment Agency. After its initial phase, SPON has regular users, but there is a great need for training and support for users to accelerate the dissemination of SPON. This strategy will sustainably increase the resilience of agricultural production in Slovenia to drought.

How to cite: Zupanc, V., Pintar, M., Glavan, M., Železnikar, Š., Žvokelj, L., and Cvejić, R.: Toward sustainable irrigation development - case study for Slovenia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12906, 2025.

EGU25-13391 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Application of different irrigation strategies for enhancing water efficiency in wheat production using the AquaCrop model: A case study in semi-arid Morocco  

Oumaima Kaissi, Salah Er-raki, El Houssaine Bouras, Salwa Belaqziz, and Abdelghani Chehbouni

Efficient irrigation practices are essential to address water scarcity and sustain wheat production in semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the performance of two distinct irrigation strategies, real irrigation and net irrigation, using the AquaCrop-OSPy (ACOSP) model to simulate the actual water requirements of wheat. The research was conducted in two experimental fields (Field F1 and Field F2) in the Chichaoua region of Morocco during the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 growing seasons. Real irrigation supplied by the farmer in the fields revealed potential inefficiencies, such as over-irrigation and crop stress, particularly in Field F1. To address these issues, a net irrigation strategy was introduced. Net irrigation focuses on maintaining soil moisture at a level that satisfies crops' water needs without applying too much water and without stressing the plant. A threshold of 60% of total available water (TAW) was applied for irrigation scheduling under net irrigation, based on literature findings. The AquaCrop model was firstly calibrated and validated using field data, achieving high accuracy in key simulated growth parameters such as canopy cover (CC), biomass and actual evapotranspiration, with R² values ranging from 72% to 98%. These results confirm the reliability of the model for assessing wheat growth under different irrigation strategies. Significant differences were observed between the two irrigation strategies regarding irrigation quantities, yield, and water productivity. In field F1, the net irrigation approach led to slightly increased water application compared to real irrigation, rising from 369.40 mm to 400 mm in the first season and from 287.61 mm to 388.15 mm in the second season. In field F2, irrigation decreased from 490.75 mm (real) to 400 mm (net) in season 1 and from 454.46 mm to 388.15 mm in season 2. These differences highlight the model's ability to align water application with crop needs under net irrigation. Yields varied from field to field and from season to season. For field F1, yields ranged from 3.45 to 6.84 tones/ha in season 1 and from 3.85 to 7.07 tones/ha in season 2.  For field F2, yields under net irrigation showed less variability, ranging from 6.39 to 6.84 tones/ha in season 1 and from 6.59 to 7.07 tones/ha in season 2. WP was always higher under net irrigation, reaching 1.82 kg/m3, confirming that excess water applied under real irrigation did not improve crop water productivity. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of net irrigation in accurately meeting crop water needs and reducing inefficiencies in real irrigation. This study underscores the importance of adopting efficient irrigation strategies to optimize water use and improve agricultural sustainability in semi-arid regions.

How to cite: Kaissi, O., Er-raki, S., Bouras, E. H., Belaqziz, S., and Chehbouni, A.: Application of different irrigation strategies for enhancing water efficiency in wheat production using the AquaCrop model: A case study in semi-arid Morocco , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13391, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13391, 2025.

EGU25-16207 | ECS | Orals | SSS9.10

Accounting for Modelled Irrigation in the Long-Term Water Budget Analysis of an Alpine Anthropized Basin. 

Martin Morlot, Christian Massari, Senna Bouabdelli, Mariapina Castelli, Sara Modanesi, and Giuseppe Formetta

Irrigation is an essential component of food systems. Worldwide, 40% of global food production comes from irrigated croplands despite the latter accounting for 20% of total cropland. With limited available locations to grow crops, an increasing population and a changing climate, irrigation is a crucial component to help meet a rising demand on food production systems. It is also a process with increasing consideration in current hydrological model developments.

Building on a previously flexible and open-source hydrological digital twin for the Adige River basin (~11000 km2), located in the north-east of Italy, at high temporal (daily) and spatial resolution (5km2), a novel irrigation modelling component is implemented for the study area. Irrigation water is crucial to the economy of the region, for fruit productions (vineyards and apple) and necessary to be included into water budget quantification to accurately represent hydrological processes.

The implementation includes water demand assessment through soil moisture and evapotranspiration, while accounting for the different type of crops and specific water needs. Irrigation is activated when volumetric soil water content (dependent on saturation and wilting points) falls below a fixed threshold. The flexibility of the digital twin framework allows us to quantify the effect of various threshold levels on irrigation estimates but also in terms of water processes. Water availability is considered through 2 scenarios (limited where water is taken from another component of the model or unlimited). The model accounts for daily limits in irrigation as well as efficiency.

Results show the different range with regards to irrigation quantities and hydrological processes dependent on the different thresholds and limitation formulae retained, outlining the importance of diverse possibilities in the implementation of irrigation.

Furthermore, integrating irrigation into the digital twin has been shown to improve the river discharge simulations under the limited irrigation scenario when compared with measured data and actual evapotranspiration. This enhancement is particularly evident in areas where irrigation represents an important input of the hydrological cycle.

This study can be useful to regional water managers, policy makers, and stakeholders, especially in regions where conflicts are strife between the different usages (domestic, agricultural, industrial/ hydropower) and particularly in a changing climate.

 

The work is supported by the project Fondo per il Programma Nazionale di Ricerca e Progetti di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale (PRIN) Control-based Optimization of the AnthropogeniC Hydrological cycle for a sustainable WATer management (COACH-WAT, CODE 2022FXJ3NN CUP E53D23004390001).

Selected references:

Morlot, M., Rigon, R., & Formetta, G. (2024). Hydrological digital twin model of a large anthropized italian alpine catchment: The Adige river basin. Journal of Hydrology, 629, 130587

How to cite: Morlot, M., Massari, C., Bouabdelli, S., Castelli, M., Modanesi, S., and Formetta, G.: Accounting for Modelled Irrigation in the Long-Term Water Budget Analysis of an Alpine Anthropized Basin., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16207, 2025.

EGU25-16977 | Orals | SSS9.10

Irrigation volumes detection through ensemble physical modelling 

Chiara Corbari, Nicola Paciolla, michele Polletta, and Francesco Morari

Agriculture is the major freshwater user worldwide, averaging 70% of the water resource consumption. Despite this heavy incidence, irrigation represents the most uncertain water flux, difficult to predict because of both anthropogenic and natural factors. In this work, a methodology to detect the irrigation signal is presented, integrating ground and satellite data within energy-water balance modelling. The proposed algorithm adopts a Montecarlo approach, simulating the impacts of hundreds of thousands of possible irrigation schedules over selected hydrological variables and extracting the most likely event series by comparing the model results with different kinds of references. This approach guarantees the physical soundness of the irrigation detection procedure by adding hydrological robustness to the different observed signals affected by irrigation. In increasing steps of uncertainty, model results are compared with those from a benchmark simulation (fed with observed irrigation data), with in-situ measurements and satellite observations. This provides a complete framework to the algorithm reliability, and the inclusion of satellite imagery allows to export the procedure to data-poor areas. In this work, numerous variables were tested to identify the fittest for the analysis, specifically: surface soil moisture (SSM), deep soil moisture (SM2), evapotranspiration (ET) and land surface temperature (LST). Of these, SSM qualified as the most suited to the algorithm, as differences in irrigation timings caused little spread in the other variables ensembles.

The used hydrological model is the FEST-EWB, an energy-water balance model where the two equations are coupled and solved jointly looking for the land surface temperature that closes the system.

The procedure was tested over a variety of Italian field case studies where eddy covariance stations are available, ranging from semi-arid to wet climates, from on-demand to turn irrigation, from homogeneous to heterogeneous agricultural landscapes, and including low-lying, high-stemmed and arboreal crops. The results indicated three main conclusions: (1) the algorithm works best over fields with fewer irrigation events in a season (<10), as very frequent events (>2-3 per week) crowd the signal and can make the procedure redundant; (2) high-ET periods (e.g., summer and/or high-vegetation density periods) within the agricultural seasons increase the  ensemble spread and improve the efficacy of the procedure, allowing to better distinguish between different irrigation schedules; (3) uncertainty in satellite retrievals of SSM, specifically over heterogeneous agricultural landscapes, negatively influences the accuracy of the algorithm by muddling the signal coming from the target field.

How to cite: Corbari, C., Paciolla, N., Polletta, M., and Morari, F.: Irrigation volumes detection through ensemble physical modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16977, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16977, 2025.

EGU25-17073 | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Precision Irrigation in the Alps: how SWAB tackles the Water Challenges 

Fabio Zottele, Cecilia Mattedi, Francesco Centurioni, and Stefano Corradini

This study presents SWAB (Soil-Water-Atmosphere Advanced Budget), a state-of-the-art and highly operational modeling framework designed for precision irrigation of grapevine, apple, and olive in alpine regions, addressing the practical needs of the agricultural sector and policymakers. SWAB is based on the water budget methodology outlined in FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, which provides a robust framework for estimating crop water requirements. However, SWAB extends and improves this methodology by incorporating advanced parameterizations of the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum (SPAC), specifically adapted to the alpine context. This region is characterized by substantial variability in soil properties and microclimates, requiring a flexible yet precise approach. Furthermore, the model integrates crop-specific parameters tailored to the high-quality production goals of Trentino's agriculture, ensuring it meets the stringent demands of premium apple and wine production.

The study focuses on the Trentino region, where approximately 20,000 hectares of irrigated land are split nearly evenly between apple orchards and vineyards. Apple orchards produce approximately 565,000 tonnes of apples with a Gross Production Value (GPV) of around €187 million. Vineyards yield approximately 141,000 tonnes of wine grapes with a GPV of roughly €160 million. The average GPV per hectare of €17,500 underscores the critical economic importance of irrigated agriculture in the region.

Agriculture in the Alpine arc does not typically face arid conditions during the growing season, as significant precipitation, including extreme events, is observed. However, a notable decline in snowfall has been recorded, which affects the primary water reserves available in spring, crucial for the onset and maintenance of the growing season. These water stocks (reservoirs, lakes, streams) are also used for various other purposes, including ecological sustainability—such as ensuring minimum vital flow for aquatic organisms—as well as tourism and hydropower generation, thereby increasing competition for water resources, particularly during dry winters and springs.

In mountain agriculture, irrigation water is managed by Irrigation Consortia that aim to provide equitable access to all members, considering meteorological conditions to some extent, but largely independent of crop type or soil characteristics. SWAB seeks to meet local demands by estimating the required water supplies to fulfill irrigation needs of the SPAC in the alpine context, while also offering recommendations to irrigation Consortia for enhanced short-term precision irrigation management.

This study focuses on estimating the water supplies needed to meet irrigation requirements in the alpine context, with the potential for analyzing medium- to long-term trends. The results highlight how an integrated modeling approach can support sustainable water resource management in mountain agriculture, enhancing the resilience of the sector in the face of increasing competition for water and climate change.

How to cite: Zottele, F., Mattedi, C., Centurioni, F., and Corradini, S.: Precision Irrigation in the Alps: how SWAB tackles the Water Challenges, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17073, 2025.

EGU25-17139 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Investigating Root Intrusion in Subsurface Drip Irrigation Systems: A Comparative Study 

Girolamo Vaccaro, Vincenzo Alagna, Dario De Caro, Loris Franco, Mariachiara Fusco, Giuseppe Giardina, Matteo Ippolito, Samuel Palermo, and Giorgio Baiamonte

In Subsurface Drip Irrigation (SDI) systems, the emitter flow rate is affected by the root intrusion phenomena and the so-called back pressure that limit the buried emitters’ outflow. Several technological solutions have been developed over the years to mitigate these undesired effects (Souza et al, 2014). In this work, in a 6-year experimental campaign, from 2018 to 2023, carried out in a Citrus orchard in Sicily, Italy (38° 4’ 53.4’’ N, 13° 25’ 8.2’’ E), the effect of root intrusion and back pressure on SDI performance was investigated. The experimental field is divided into 4 equivalent plots, in which different root guard emitter treatments were tested. Specifically, two kinds of different herbicides substances (He 1 and He 2), one with copper (Cu) and one without additional substances that was used as a reference (control, Ctrl), were considered. During the six irrigation seasons, inlet discharges and pressure heads were collected, and their variations were used to quantify the effect of root intrusion in terms of local losses. The change in the SDI hydraulic performance was studied using a recent and innovative methodology (Baiamonte et al., 2024) based on a modified Hardy Cross method (HCM), which is suitable for lopped drip irrigation networks. The HCM applications considered local losses and back pressure and required a comprehensive hydraulic characterisation of the soil to estimate accurately the parameters influencing back pressure. Specifically, the influence of root intrusion in different emitters was analysed by considering the time variation of the coefficient of local losses, namely the α-fraction of the kinetic head. The results showed various behaviours among the four root guard emitter treatments. Emitters treated with different herbicides (He 1 and He 2), revealed no significant α-fraction variation in the analysis periods, denoting the effectiveness of He 1 and He 2 treatments in root intrusion protection. On the contrary, for Copper (Cu) and control (Ctrl) treatments, a severe decrease in emitter flow rate was observed, which was determined by high α-fraction variations over the investigated period, reaching α = 50 and α = 32, respectively, by 2023, thus limiting the benefits of SDI systems.

References

Baiamonte G, Vaccaro G, Palermo S (2024) Quantifying local losses due to root intrusion in subsurface drip irrigation systems by monitoring inlet discharge and pressure head. Irrig Sci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00271-024-00990-y

Souza WDJ, Sinobas LR, Sánchez R, Botrel TA, Coelho RD (2014) Prototype emitter for use in subsurface drip irrigation: Manufacturing, hydraulic evaluation and experimental analyses. Biosyst Eng 128:41–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2014.09.011

How to cite: Vaccaro, G., Alagna, V., De Caro, D., Franco, L., Fusco, M., Giardina, G., Ippolito, M., Palermo, S., and Baiamonte, G.: Investigating Root Intrusion in Subsurface Drip Irrigation Systems: A Comparative Study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17139, 2025.

EGU25-17263 | Orals | SSS9.10

Corrections to Global Gridded Irrigation Efficiency Datasets in Groundwater-Dependent Croplands 

Fatemeh Karandish, Sida Liu, David Hyndman, Oleksandr Mialyk, Yi Yao, and Inge de graaf

Irrigation efficiency improvements have been recognized as a key strategy to increase the 'crop per drop' ratio of water allocated to the agricultural sector, yet at the same time, there is a lack of comprehensive irrigation efficiency datasets at the global scale. Most of the currently available data are either outdated, or fail to account for the groundwater dimension of this indicator. Aiming to determine multiple dimensions of irrigation efficiency within an intertwined surface water and groundwater irrigation scheme, we try to modify the currently available datasets. Here, we provide a global dynamic irrigation efficiency dataset at a 5×5 arc-minute resolution, corrected for groundwater contributions in each grid cell. We add a new dynamic layer to the available irrigation efficiency datasets, called groundwater irrigation efficiency, which varies across the globe and throughout the year based on multiple factors. These factors include pumping system properties, groundwater table, surface water and irrigation water demand, and climatic and environmental conditions. Our work improves the understanding of  the role of groundwater contributions in supplying irrigation water and helps to minimize  biases in the estimated irrigation efficiencies, consequently leading to more accurate evaluations  of agro-hydrological flows.

Keywords: irrigation efficiency, groundwater-led irrigation, pumping energy, groundwater scarcity.

How to cite: Karandish, F., Liu, S., Hyndman, D., Mialyk, O., Yao, Y., and de graaf, I.: Corrections to Global Gridded Irrigation Efficiency Datasets in Groundwater-Dependent Croplands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17263, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17263, 2025.

EGU25-17487 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

IRRITRE for a sustainable irrigation in agriculture of Trentino 

Francesco Centurioni, Fabio Zottele, Cecilia Mattedi, Stefano Corradini, Pietro Franceschi, Alessandra Gattolin, Francesca Paolucci, and Fabio Antonelli

IRRITRE for a sustainable irrigation in agriculture of Trentino

 

Francesco Centurioni, Cecilia Mattedi, Fabio Zottele, Stefano Corradini, Alessandra Gattolin, Fabio Antonelli, Francesca Paolucci, Pietro Franceschi



We present the IRRITRE project, conceived to optimize and monitor water usage for the irrigation of three key crops in Trentino’s Alpine region: apples, wine grapes, and olives; within the context of climate change. Led by the Province of Trento, the initiative is supported by the Edmund Mach Foundation (agronomic expertise), the Bruno Kessler Foundation (sensor development and soil moisture monitoring), and Trentino Digitale (IoT network infrastructure).

Launched in 2024 and set to conclude in 2025, the project has established three pilot sites strategically selected to represent the principal cultivation zones for the crops under study: Tres (Val di Non) for apples, Roverè della Luna (Piana Rotaliana) for vines, and Varone (Garda Trentino) for olives.

At each of these sites, a suite of sensors is being deployed, linked via the LoRaWAN network, which offers wide-area coverage with low energy consumption. These sensors are designed to monitor soil moisture through tensiometers and capacitive probes, measure water volumes with pulse counters on sector valves, and track irrigation flow using flow meters installed along the drip lines near the crops.

By integrating sensor data with a network of meteorological stations, a robust understanding of crop water requirements, and the capabilities of artificial intelligence, the project employs an advanced forecasting model for irrigation known as SWAB (Soil Water Advanced Budget). This model enables the estimation of the water balance for irrigated lands and provides tailored irrigation recommendations to agricultural consortia.

Looking ahead, the project aspires to extend this irrigation decision-support service to more than two hundreds of irrigation consortia around Trentino. By doing so, it aims to gather location-specific data and consolidate insights into water usage in the region, ultimately fostering more sustainable agricultural practices.

How to cite: Centurioni, F., Zottele, F., Mattedi, C., Corradini, S., Franceschi, P., Gattolin, A., Paolucci, F., and Antonelli, F.: IRRITRE for a sustainable irrigation in agriculture of Trentino, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17487, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17487, 2025.

EGU25-17530 | ECS | Orals | SSS9.10

Modelling macadamia water use for optimizing orchard irrigation management in periodically water-scarce regions 

Thomas Bringhenti, Marco Moriondo, Issaka Abdulai, Munir P. Hoffmann, Elsje Joubert, Peter J. Taylor, and Reimund P. Rötter

Macadamia is a high-value tree nut crop experiencing a remarkable global rise in demand.  South Africa is the world’s largest producer and the rapid expansion of macadamia orchards across the country has been driving increased irrigation water use. This, in turn, poses significant challenges to the water-scarce production environment, which is already strained by unsustainable freshwater withdrawals and the growing impacts of climate change. Optimizing orchard irrigation management is therefore essential to minimize unproductive water use. This requires a precise quantification of macadamia trees’ water requirements. To this end, a robust macadamia-specific transpiration model would be needed to provide valuable insights into tree responses to diverse environmental and management factors. Such model, if evaluated properly, would enable upscaling of results from field level across a wide range of cultivation regions and climatic conditions. To date, however, the development of such a model has been constrained by the scarcity of high-quality, long-term transpiration datasets, limitations of existing (overly complex and data-intensive) modelling approaches, and insufficient accuracy.

To address these gaps, we linked the generation of a comprehensive experimental dataset on macadamia transpiration in the sub-humid Levubu region, South Africa, with the adoption and evaluation of a simple, data-efficient modelling approach. Tree sap velocity data were collected from two macadamia cultivars (‘Beaumont’ and ‘HAES849’), alongside continuous monitoring of microclimate and soil water content over two years. These data were analyzed to gain deeper understanding of macadamia water use behavior across seasons and under varying soil water conditions, and were used to calibrate and validate a novel macadamia transpiration model. The model was initially calibrated under non-limiting water conditions using data on tree-intercepted radiation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and canopy conductance to simulate potential tree transpiration - representing the upper limit of macadamia water use. It was subsequently refined to simulate transpiration under water deficit conditions, accounting for the seasonally variable and limited water availability typical of southern Africa. Model performance was validated against independent datasets for both cultivars.

Observed macadamia transpiration exhibited pronounced variability, ranging from 0.6 mm d-1 during the dry season to 1.3 mm d-1 during the rainy season. This variability was largely driven by microclimatic factors. The trees showed a predominantly water-conserving strategy, with strict stomatal control in response to increasing VPD. Significant differences in water use behavior were observed among cultivars, potentially reflecting variations in productivity and climate resilience. Overall, the observed daily transpiration rates were considerably lower than the industry standard assumption of 2.0 mm d-1, suggesting that orchards are likely over-irrigated. The model successfully captured the strong stomatal response to increasing VPD and demonstrated satisfactory performance for both cultivars under both non-limiting and water deficit conditions, with lower relative error measures in the latter. This highlights the suitability of this relatively simple and data-efficient model for accurately simulating macadamia tree transpiration across cultivars and under seasonally variable water availability, making it a valuable tool for optimizing irrigation practices and reducing unproductive water use in periodically water-scarce regions.

How to cite: Bringhenti, T., Moriondo, M., Abdulai, I., Hoffmann, M. P., Joubert, E., Taylor, P. J., and Rötter, R. P.: Modelling macadamia water use for optimizing orchard irrigation management in periodically water-scarce regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17530, 2025.

EGU25-18057 | ECS | Orals | SSS9.10

Exploring the Potential of the Off-Grid Automation Systems in a Real Pressurized Irrigation Distribution System 

Ignasius Axel Hutomo, Davide Troiani, Giacomo Ferrarese, and Stefano Malavasi

Off-grid Automatic System (OAS), a smart valve patented by Politecnico di Milano, is a device that has the capability to regulate fluid flow while simultaneously recovering energy from the throttling process. The device is an evolution of several previous patents developed by the research group, designed to adapt to the operating conditions of irrigation applications. The energy recovered is used locally to enable functions that enhance water network resilience, management and sustainability, like remote control and real-time monitoring.  

This paper presents a framework for assessing the feasibility of the OAS in a real Pressurized Irrigation Distribution Network (PIDS), where little to no information is available aside from geometrical features and some boundary conditions. Firstly, hydrant configurations were generated using a statistical approach based on the Clément formula integrated within the Combined Optimization and Performance Analysis Model (COPAM). Secondly, the Water Network Tool (WNTR) package was employed to simulate the hydraulic performance of the system. Thirdly, the simulation results were used to determine the minimum OAS diameter based on the Flow Coefficient (Cv) and the maximum recoverable energy of the system. Finally, the energy balance was calculated considering the minimum hours of hydrant activation and the energy consumption of the OAS across various operational modes.

This methodology was evaluated on a real irrigation network in District 10 – Capitanata PIDS in Southern Italy. The network comprises 54 kilometers of pipe serving 317 hydrant nodes. Each node irrigates 6 hectares of land, with a nominal discharge of 10 liters per second and a design pressure head of 20 meters. The upstream piezometric head exhibited an operational range of 110 meters. Average hydrant pressures ranged from 40 to 100 meters, significantly exceeding the levels required for proper operation at most network nodes. Consequently, following widely studied approaches in the literature Pressure Reducing Valve (PRV) was installed downstream within the PIDS to lower the excessive pressure and reduce water losses This intervention reduced pressures by approximately 20 meters, and the energetic sustainability of the OAS was verified also under these adjusted conditions.

This study demonstrates an average hydrant reliability of 94% across all possible configurations with 10 hours of hydrant activation. It means, on average, 94% of the potential hydrant configurations tested in this study were able to provide enough energy to power the OAS system for the whole year irrigation season. However, some nodes exhibit significantly lower reliability. Attributed to unfavorable topographic and hydrant combinations, where even prolonged activation fails to generate sufficient energy for the OAS to achieve self-sustainability.

This study highlights the critical challenge of energy self-sufficiency for OAS particularly in the face of uncertainties in network operation. The intermittent nature of irrigation demands and the inherent variability in water pressure within the network significantly impact the energy generation potential of the OAS. The findings underscore the importance of robust system design to ensure the long-term sustainability and reliability of off-grid irrigation technologies, particularly in regions facing water scarcity and energy constraints.

How to cite: Hutomo, I. A., Troiani, D., Ferrarese, G., and Malavasi, S.: Exploring the Potential of the Off-Grid Automation Systems in a Real Pressurized Irrigation Distribution System, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18057, 2025.

EGU25-18114 | ECS | Posters on site | SSS9.10

Impact of mulching and high salinity water irrigation on mango: a preliminary study in Mediterranean environment 

Serena Bellitti, Dario Autovino, Vittorio Farina, Loris Franco, Giovanni Gugliuzza, Massimo Iovino, and Matteo Mezzano

The cultivation of mango (Mangifera indica L.) is increasingly spreading in the Mediterranean basin, but it faces significant challenges, including limited water availability and the use of low-quality water during the irrigation season. These issues are further intensified by the impacts of climate change, making it essential to adopt crop and soil management strategies that optimize and preserve this resource. A common management strategy in the Mediterranean environment involves cultivating mango plants on raised beds covered with black plastic mulch. The study aimed to assess the impact of mulching on soil temperature, moisture and salinity, as well as on the eco-physiological behaviour, yield, and fruit quality of mango plants irrigated with very high salinity water during an irrigation season. The experiment was conducted in a 4 -year-old mango orchard (cv. Keitt) near Palermo, Italy. Two soil management strategies were compared: black plastic mulch and unmulched soil, both combined with very high salinity water irrigation (4 mS/cm). Results indicate that, within the first 5 cm of soil depth, the temperature differences between the two experimental conditions were particularly marked. Unmulched soil showed a higher daily temperature excursion, reaching 50°C during the season. At depths between 5 and 10 cm, unmulched soil recorded temperatures above 40°C, while mulched soil did not exceed 32°C. Mulching plays a crucial role in maintaining lower and more stable soil temperatures, especially on days characterized by high air temperatures. The mulched soil also had a higher volumetric water content, probably due to reduced evaporation and a more uniform water distribution in the soil profile. An increase in soil electrical conductivity was observed in the unmulched soil over the season, suggesting a potential surface salt accumulation caused by evaporation. However, at a depth of 25-30 cm, no significant differences were observed between the two experimental conditions. Regarding the net photosynthesis rate, as well as yield and fruit quality parameters, the plants responded similarly under the two different management strategies. Despite mango being notoriously sensitive to saline conditions, plants irrigated with very high salinity water maintained a high photosynthetic activity. In addition, fruits achieved an average weight of 750 g and a total soluble solids content of 15 °Brix, according to the quality standards required by the European market. The results of the study are promising, but the data collected will need to be further validated in the next season to assess the long-term impact of mulching and salt accumulation in the soil.

Aknowledgment: this research was funded under Action 2 of the “Budget Strategico del Dipatimento SAAF” of the University of Palermo prot. 206917 – 18/12/2023.

How to cite: Bellitti, S., Autovino, D., Farina, V., Franco, L., Gugliuzza, G., Iovino, M., and Mezzano, M.: Impact of mulching and high salinity water irrigation on mango: a preliminary study in Mediterranean environment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18114, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18114, 2025.

EGU25-18660 | Orals | SSS9.10

Implementing the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus in irrigated areas: hints from the ERASMUS project 

Alessandro Pagano, Giacomo Ferrarese, Nicola Fontana, Ivan Portoghese, Umberto Fratino, Virginia Rosa Coletta, Nicola Lamaddalena, Serine Mohammadi, Gustavo Marini, Stefano Mambretti, and Stefano Malavasi

The Nexus concept recently emerged as a theoretical approach to natural resources management, which highlights the interconnections and interdependencies among different sectors (typically Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems, WEFE). It is seen as an opportunity to support sustainability transitions, overcoming sectoral perspectives and conflicts that often hinder such processes. This is particularly crucial for irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean areas, which has a central role for the socio-economic well-being but is being impacted by a multiplicity of relevant issues, such as the high demand for natural resources (water, soil, energy) and related costs in a context of limited availability. However, despite the increasing attention received in the scientific community, the Nexus concept is still limitedly implemented and operationalized.

This study, part of the ERASMUS project (Funded by the European Union—Next-Generation EU—National Recovery and Resilience Plan NRRP —MISSION 4 COMPONENT C2, INVESTIMENT N. 1.1, CALL PRIN 2022 D.D. 104 02-02-2022, Project 2022WLW9X8, Equality and Resilience of Agroecosystems through Smart water Management and Use—ERASMUS CUP N. B53D23006510006), aims at providing tools for an improved understanding of the WEFE Nexus in irrigated agroecosystems, while supporting its implementation exploring the role that innovative technologies might have.

The research employs two complementary methodologies: numerical modelling of irrigation networks and System Dynamics (SD) modelling. Numerical modelling simulates the behavior of irrigation networks under different operating scenarios, using a set of indicators to describe key system properties such as system reliability, water distribution equity, pressure deficit or excess, and water/energy use efficiency. SD modelling extends this analysis by incorporating broader system dynamics, including ecosystem and socio-economic factors represented through aggregated multidimensional indicators. Together, these approaches aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the state of irrigated systems and their potential evolution under multiple scenarios, which include the introduction of smart devices supporting network management, showing the effects they can have on system performance.

The numerical modelling approach relies also on the Rapid Appraisal Procedure, forming the basis for performance analysis through both physical and qualitative assessments. Field surveys collect data on cropping patterns and registered water volumes, which are integrated into simulation processes using Clément’s model to estimate discharge and pressure dynamics. Field calibration refines the model further, enabling detailed performance analysis at both hydrant and network levels. This structured workflow identifies critical performance gaps and inefficiencies, offering insights to optimize resource use and improve operational reliability.

The approach is being tested in two case studies in Southern Italy. A Community of Innovation has been stablished in the areas, which actively supports modelling activities, fostering stakeholder involvement and ensuring their support in understanding the potential for implementation and wider uptake of the proposed technologies.

How to cite: Pagano, A., Ferrarese, G., Fontana, N., Portoghese, I., Fratino, U., Coletta, V. R., Lamaddalena, N., Mohammadi, S., Marini, G., Mambretti, S., and Malavasi, S.: Implementing the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus in irrigated areas: hints from the ERASMUS project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18660, 2025.

EGU25-18718 | Orals | SSS9.10

AIDA: High-resolution detection of water demand in the Italian agricultural sector 

Maria Cristina Rulli, Nikolas Galli, Harsh Nanesha, Arianna Tolazzi, Francesco Capone, Livia Ricciardi, Camilla Govoni, and Davide Danilo Chiarelli

Italy's agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its economy, has been facing mounting challenges from frequent droughts and water shortages, as the ones of 2022, 2023 and 2024, emphasizing the urgent need for effective and informed water management strategies. This study addresses this critical issue by evaluating water demand of rainfed and irrigated agriculture at high spatial resolution across Italy. This is done by integrating very high-resolution crop-specific datasets with irrigation intensity maps to develop a detailed land and crop cover map tracing 22 key crops at a 1 km resolution. This map then informs the WATNEEDS model, which solves the daily soil water balance in a crop-specific way to derive blue and green water demands. Validation of crop maps is performed against ground data by the Italian bureau of statistics (ISTAT), with satisfying results (86.7% of the model’s estimates present high correlation and low error w.r.t. ISTAT’s data). Irrigation volumes align well with regional statistics despite limitations in the validation sample. While uncertainties persist due to input data constraints and assumptions about hydrological processes and agricultural practices, the results offer significant opportunities to enhance water resource allocation. Among these, the findings of this study are supporting the identification of optimal locations for Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmAR), a critical measure to mitigate the impacts of drought and ensure agricultural sustainability. This study was carried out within the CASTLE project and the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.1 – D.D. n. 104 02/02/2022 PRIN 2022 project code MUR 2022XSERL4 - CUP  B53D23007590006 and National Recovery and Resilience Plan –NRRP, Mission 4, Component
2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)

How to cite: Rulli, M. C., Galli, N., Nanesha, H., Tolazzi, A., Capone, F., Ricciardi, L., Govoni, C., and Chiarelli, D. D.: AIDA: High-resolution detection of water demand in the Italian agricultural sector, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18718, 2025.

EGU25-20265 | Orals | SSS9.10

Irrigation Strategies for Carob Tree: Evaluating the Impact of Water Stress and Supplemental Irrigation under Mediterranean Climate 

francisco pedrero salcedo, Olga Doumkou, beatriz Lorente Pagán, Antonio José García García, Carlota Mª Martí-Martinez, Jesús María Domínguez Niño, Teresa Munuera Pérez, and Juan José Alarcón Cabañero

Climate change and increasing drought in the Mediterranean regions provoke serious challenges to agriculture, especially for rainfed crops. Carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) is a resilient tree that is cultivated in dry and poor soils, but the absence of precise data on its irrigation needs limits the possibility of improving its production. In our research, we evaluate the irrigation needs and physiological response of carob trees by applying different irrigation strategies and using precision irrigation technologies.

The experiment was conducted from 2022/2024 at an 8-ha commercial carob tree orchard in the region of Murcia, Spain, with subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) installation. Three irrigation strategies were applied: full irrigation (FI), deficit irrigation (DI), and no irrigation (rainfed). Precision irrigation tools were used for supplemental irrigation during the critical growth periods. It is proven that supplemental irrigation, in addition to rainfall, can increase the yield. Soil probes and dendrometers were used to record moisture content and indicate the water stress. Additionally, stomatal conductance (gs) and stem water potential was measured.

The SDI system played a key role, as it allows for a more precise distribution of water directly in the root zone, improving the tree's access to water and reducing losses due to evaporation. From the physiological point of view, the stomatal conductance was the best indicator, responding faster to water supply. In terms of sensors, the combination of soil moisture sensors (at 30 and 60cms) to understand the correct soil water distribution, and dendometers which at each phenological stage (Bud-break, summer stop and post-summer growth) allow to determine whether the trees were growing, in standby, or water stress. The results showed increased fruit production and more consistent yields with full irrigation treatment, suggesting it supports uniform growth. However, variability due to factors like root damage through SDI installation, own variety variability, soil and alternate bearing was noted. The integration for the new seasons of new tools as remote sensing and machine learning will help reduce deviations.

This experiment has demonstrated the value of carob cultivation as an alternative, profitable and sustainable production, since this crop survives with low irrigation water quality and very low irrigation supplies, from 100 to 200 mm/year, applying complementary and deficit irrigation strategies.

How to cite: pedrero salcedo, F., Doumkou, O., Lorente Pagán, B., García García, A. J., Martí-Martinez, C. M., Domínguez Niño, J. M., Munuera Pérez, T., and Alarcón Cabañero, J. J.: Irrigation Strategies for Carob Tree: Evaluating the Impact of Water Stress and Supplemental Irrigation under Mediterranean Climate, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20265, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20265, 2025.

EGU25-20348 | Posters on site | SSS9.10 | Highlight

Strategies to resources optimization in tomato, combination of soil water monitoring and biostimulation 

Alejandro Pérez-Pastor, Laura Marin-Durán, Susana Zapata-García, Pablo Berrios, Abdelmalek Temnani, Raúl Pérez-López, and Claudia Monllor

Spain is one of the most important tomato producers of the European Union, but the elevated water requirements of this crop together with the water scarcity that the country undergoes, lead farmers to look for new alternatives to optimize the use of the water and nutrients used for its growth. For this reason, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a combined treatment of biostimulation and irrigation reduction on the yield parameters, irrigation water productivity (WPi), productivity of the macronutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P) and potassium (K) and soil enzymatic activity in two commercial greenhouses of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.). The treatments evaluated were: i) FARMER: irrigated by farmer criteria, and ii) BIO: Biostimulated with seaweed extracts and microorganisms, and irrigated by monitoring the soil water content during the whole crop cycle through the use of real-time probes. The biostimulation program consisted of Ascophyllum nodosum extract applied by foliar and drip irrigation in both trials. In addition, the application of a third biostimulant composed by Bacillus paralicheniformis was added in trial 2. In both trials, the water savings in the BIO treatment with respect to their FARMER were 842 m3 ha-1 and 117 m3 ha-1, for trial 1 and 2, respectively. BIO treatment increased the number of fruits and the yield of tomato, therefore, an increase in the WPi and the productivity factor of N-P-K was observed. In addition, the enzymatic activities of the soil, β-glucosidase, phosphatase and urease showed a trend to improve in the BIO treatments in comparison to FARMER, making the nutrients more available for the plants. In conclusion, the application of biostimulants combined with irrigation reduction has been proved to be a strategy that allows reducing the water irrigation and fertilizers applied to tomato, improving its yield and soil enzymatic activities. This combination increases the economical and environmentally sustainable of tomato under greenhouse.

This work is a result of the AGROALNEXT programme and was supported by MCIN with funding from European Union NextGenerationEU (PRTR-C17.I1) and by Fundación Séneca with funding from Comunidad Autónoma Región de Murcia (CARM). Funding has also been received from the FMC Agricultural Sciences chair of the UPCT, an agreement between FMC Agricultural Solutions and UPCT.

How to cite: Pérez-Pastor, A., Marin-Durán, L., Zapata-García, S., Berrios, P., Temnani, A., Pérez-López, R., and Monllor, C.: Strategies to resources optimization in tomato, combination of soil water monitoring and biostimulation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20348, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20348, 2025.

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of deficit irrigation applications at different levels on 
the cool-season turf mix and warm-season turfgrass species irrigated by sprinkler irrigation method and 
sub-drip irrigation method. Field experiments were conducted in the Agricultural Production and 
Research Center (TURAM) of Silivri Municipality in the boundaries of Tekirdağ and Istanbul - 
TÜRKİYE (41°03ʹN; 28°00ʹE; 46 m a.s.l.) in the summertime of 2019 and 2020. In this research, two 
different irrigation methods (SI: Sprinkler and SDI: sub-drip), for two different turfgrass types (CS: 
Cool-season turfgrass mix and WS: Warm-season turfgrass), at three different irrigation levels (I1: full 
irrigation, I2: 1/3 deficiency, I3: 2/3 deficiency) were examined in split split plots in randomized blocks 
design with three replications. Soil moisture content was monitored via TDR for irrigation scheduling, 
climatic data needed for ETo estimation were taken from automatic meteorology station established in 
experimental area, canopy temperature for CWSI calculation was measured by infrared thermometer. 
When the results were evaluated in terms of irrigation methods, 6-36% less irrigation water was applied 
with SDI method according to SI method due to the high-water application efficiency and low 
evaporation.  Besides, it has been concluded that deficit irrigation for cool season turfgrass mix has not 
been possible by SI method whereas deficit irrigation of 1/3 can be applied by SDI method on the 
condition of a little bit compromising the color quality. Thus, 38% irrigation water saving was achieved 
by SDI method. Although there was no any decrease in the density value, irrigation deficiency was not 
possible due to the decrease in the color parameter in Bermudagrass under SI method. However, 
irrigation water deficiency of 1/3 can be managed without any problem in visual quality in the same 
grass type under SDI method. Thus, approximately 50% irrigation water saving can be achieved 
compared to the SI method. 
Moreover, the CWSI is a valuable tool for monitoring and quantifying water stress and scheduling 
irrigations. CWSI of 0,12; 0,13; 0,31 and 0,39 are irrigation thresholds for CS and WS under SDI method 
for CS and WS under SI method, respectively. 
 
Keywords: Landscape irrigation, Turfgrass varieties, Irrigation methods, Irrigation water saving, Crop 
water stress index (CWSI) 
This Project was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey 
(TÜBİTAK).

How to cite: Orta, A. H.: Response of cool and warm season turfgrass species to deficit irrigation under sprinkler and subsurface drip irrigation methods., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21932, 2025.

Translation of geoscience research into tangible changes, such as modified decisions, processes or policy in the wider world is an important yet notably difficult process. Co-RISK is an accessible (i.e. open access, paper-based, zero cost) ‘toolkit’ for use by stakeholder groups within workshops, which is intended to aid this translation process. It is given a robust basis by incorporating paradox theory from organisation studies, which deals with navigating the genuine tensions between industry and research organizations that stem from their differing roles. Specifically designed to ameliorate the organizational paradox, a Co-RISK workshop draws up ‘Maps’ including key stakeholders (e.g. regulator, insurer, university) and their positionality (e.g. barriers, concerns, motivations), and identifies exactly the points where science might modify actions. Ultimately a Co-RISK workshop drafts simple and tailored project-specific frameworks that span from climate to hazard, to risk, to implications of that risk (e.g. solvency). The action research approach used to design Co-RISK (with Bank of England, Aon, Verrisk), its implementation in a trial session for the insurance sector and its intellectual contribution are described and evaluated. The initial Co-RISK workshop was well received, so application is envisaged to other sectors (i.e. transport infrastructure, utilities, government).  Joint endeavours enabled by Co-RISK could fulfil the genuine need to quickly convert the latest insights from environmental research into real-world climate change adaptation strategies.

https://gc.copernicus.org/articles/7/35/2024/

How to cite: Hillier, J. K. and van Meeteren, M.: Co-RISK: A tool to co-create impactful university-industry projects for natural hazard risk mitigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-291, 2025.

Skeptical Science is a volunteer-run website publishing refutations of climate misinformation. Some members of the Skeptical Science team actively research best-practices refutation techniques while other team members use these findings to share debunking techniques effectively either in writing or through presentations. During 2024, our team collaborated with other groups specializing in fact checking and countering misinformation about the climate crisis. With this submission we highlight two of these collaborations:

  • Creating fact briefs in collaboration with Gigafact
    Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. 
  • Turning a PDF-based report refuting 33 climate solutions myths into stand-alone rebuttals
    In early 2024 we spotted an impressive report addressing climate solutions misinformation, "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles," written by members of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School. We collaborated with the authors to create 33 stand-alone rebuttals based on the report's content to make it possible to link to each of the rebuttals directly.

Both of these collaborations help with sharing fact-based information in order to counter mis- and disinformation spread online.

How to cite: Winkler, B.: Collaborations between Skeptical Science and other groups to spread fact-based information, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1439, 2025.

In an era characterised by the political economy of financialised capitalism, accounting plays an instrumental role in shaping decision-making through the principle of materiality.  This principle influences how physical climate risks are perceived and addressed.  The role of accounting and the principle of materiality are foundational to using corporate reporting to prepare markets for the effects of climate change.  
The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD, 2023) has highlighted persistent inadequacies in corporate disclosures, particularly their failure to provide decision-useful information for managing or mitigating the financial and societal impact of extreme weather events.  Inspired by the Absurdist literary tradition, the paper offers a conceptual alternative: expressing materiality as an aesthetic performance that embraces the ambiguity and complexity of climate risk.
To visualise this interplay, disclosure is interpreted as a form of communicative storytelling, where accounting frameworks set the plot and characters, shaping stakeholder engagement.  The tangible impacts of physical climate change function as the unpredictable forces driving the narrative, while aesthetic materiality transforms these elements into a cohesive strategic risk management framework.  This dynamic symbiosis, imbued with Absurdist tensions, illustrates how narrative, financial structures, environmental realities, and performative aesthetics collectively influence decision-making in the face of climate risks.
The Absurdist lens reveals how contemporary disclosures embody a condition of "waiting for the correct data," a state of deferral legitimised by incremental approaches to risk management.  Traditional calculative paradigms in accounting—such as materiality thresholds, metrics, and financial quantification—struggle to address the non-linear and interdependent risks posed by extreme weather events.  By aestheticising materiality, this paper argues that corporate disclosures can better cope with these limitations, engaging stakeholders through participatory and relational communication rather than static, deterministic metrics.
Aesthetic materiality shifts the focus from rigid frameworks to systemic interconnectivity, inviting decision-makers to critically reflect on the unpredictability of climate risks and to co-create meaning alongside stakeholders.  This perspective complements tools such as impact-based forecasting and early-warning systems by addressing the socio-cultural dimensions of risk communication.
Empirical insights from 44 interviews with stakeholders across 16 FTSE350 organisations illustrate the limitations of calculative realism in accounting for climate scenarios.  Participants reported deferring action in pursuit of elusive “objective truths,” grappling with helplessness amidst multiple potential realities and feeling hopeless by the inexpressible ambiguity associated with accounting for extreme weather risks.  These findings underscore the Absurdist tension between striving for control and coping with the immeasurable—a tension that current frameworks fail to resolve.
Aesthetic materiality is a conceptual response to the systemic inadequacies of existing corporate disclosure practices.  It disrupts normative accounting principles such as reliability and objectivity, advocating instead for evocative narratives, symbolic imagery, and dialogical engagement that better reprehend the interconnected nature of extreme weather events.  Such a transition also signals a shift beyond the prevailing interdisciplinary accounting discourse by foregrounding the limits of language and representation, emphasising the performative aesthetics of materiality and expressing disclosure as an unending process. 

How to cite: O Rourke, J.: Accounting Beyond the Calculative: Expressing Corporate Disclosure Through Aesthetic Materiality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1592, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1592, 2025.

EGU25-2292 | ECS | Orals | EOS1.1

GreenDealz: a hands-on shopping activity for public engagement with critical raw materials 

Lucy Blennerhassett, Geertje Schuitema, and Fergus McAuliffe

Developing innovative public engagement measures are central to addressing many of the key geoscience related challenges within the EU. One of the most pressing European challenges includes achieving a sustainable and secure supply of critical raw materials (CRMs). These materials include vital metals used in renewable energy technologies, for which the EU is often totally reliant on imports at both the extraction and processing level. Hence, EU climate neutrality by 2050, as per the European Green Deal, hinges on CRM supply. However, this is not often discussed in the public realm.

Informal education spaces such as festivals provide unique environments for science communication, where incidental adult audiences can stumble upon new scientific concepts and problems in engaging ways. However, to be successful, science exhibits at such events need to capture attention and stimulate the audience in a short period of time. The critical raw material challenge is underrepresented in the festival environment likely due to historically negative public attitudes towards mining. Hence, a necessary science communication endeavour is to develop a novel engagement activity that engages adult audiences at festivals with this issue and stimulates conversation. We present a hands-on, challenge-based public engagement activity/tool for use in the fast-paced science and arts festival environment, where contact time is limited and interaction is key. Designed to simulate the supermarket experience, ‘GreenDealz’ brings participants through tactile ‘shopping’ tasks, with evaluation points included throughout. The main aim of GreenDealz was to engage participants with the concept of critical raw materials and their demand for renewable energy technologies in a relatable and task-based way.

We outline the iterative process of developing GreenDealz for the festival environment, including ideation, design, and an evolution of evaluation from classic self-reported techniques to more novel and festival friendly ‘embedded assessment’ measures. Importantly, we highlight how this activity has been tested and validated via a mixed methods approach: our quantitative data, collected across several festivals in Ireland, yields significant findings about audience learnings and engagement, while our qualitative data, gleaned through less time-restricted participant interactions sheds a deeper light on the effectiveness of this tool in achieving learning outcomes and sparking interest in critical raw materials within non-specialist audiences.

How to cite: Blennerhassett, L., Schuitema, G., and McAuliffe, F.: GreenDealz: a hands-on shopping activity for public engagement with critical raw materials, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2292, 2025.

EGU25-2755 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Connecting Science and Education: Innovative Approaches from the INSE Network 

Eva Feldbacher, Carmen Sippl, Babette Lughammer, Ioana Capatu, Gregor Jöstl, Dominik Eibl, Michaela Panzenböck, Laura Coulson, Elmira Akbari, and Gabriele Weigelhofer

Austrian citizens, like many others worldwide, show high levels of skepticism coupled with low interest in science. This disengagement is closely tied to limited science literacy, characterized by a poor understanding of the scientific process and scientific data generation. Initiatives operating at the intersection of science and education provide a valuable opportunity to develop innovative methods of science communication, enhance science literacy, and positively influence attitudes toward scientific findings. To address these challenges, scientists from diverse disciplines, educators, and administrators have joined forces to establish the “Interdisciplinary Network for Science Education Lower Austria (INSE)”. Led by WasserCluster Lunz and funded by GFF NÖ, this partnership aims to: (i) deepen public understanding of science by engaging students and citizens in scientific processes across disciplines, (ii) spark interest in science through innovative communication strategies, and (iii) build trust in the benefits of science by showcasing its contributions to addressing societal and ecological challenges.

In this presentation, we will introduce the INSE partnership and highlight our science education concepts tailored to different educational levels. At the primary level, the focus was on research in the humanities, emphasizing the significance of reading and writing. At the lower secondary level, the main principles of the "Nature of Science (NOS)" were introduced, while at the upper secondary level, students conducted their own research projects, either in the natural sciences (a respiration experiment in aquatic ecology) or the social sciences (a social science survey). Students explored the principles of specific research methods and examined the similarities and differences among various scientific disciplines. This approach aimed to provide participants with both a solid understanding of general scientific principles and insights into discipline-specific methodologies.

We will also present initial evaluation results on the effectiveness of our educational activities. Additionally, we aim to foster new collaborations at both national and international levels to strengthen our network and expand the resources available for science education.

How to cite: Feldbacher, E., Sippl, C., Lughammer, B., Capatu, I., Jöstl, G., Eibl, D., Panzenböck, M., Coulson, L., Akbari, E., and Weigelhofer, G.: Connecting Science and Education: Innovative Approaches from the INSE Network, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2755, 2025.

SCAPE° is a new science center under development in Offenbach, Germany, dedicated to making weather, climate, and their profound connections to human life both tangible and engaging. Situated in the heart of the city, SCAPE° aims to bridge the gap between science and society through interactive exhibits, immersive workshops, and dynamic community events.

This presentation will provide an overview of SCAPE°’s organizational structure, the planning and design process, and the challenges encountered in creating this innovative space. Key exhibits will be showcased, including hands-on installations such as turbulence simulators and immersive visualizations of global weather phenomena, demonstrating the center’s commitment to interactive and educational engagement. Examples of workshops and events will illustrate how SCAPE° fosters dialogue and involvement in a scientific, but also artistic way. 

By sharing the experiences and lessons learned in developing SCAPE°, this presentation seeks to inspire innovative approaches to science communication and public engagement in weather and climate sciences, while raising awareness and excitement for SCAPE° itself as a vital new space for exploration and education.

How to cite: Frank, B.: SCAPE° Offenbach: A New Science Center Bringing Weather and Climate to Life in the Heart of the City, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2820, 2025.

This study investigates how the mining industry employs science communication tactics, specifically framing, warmth, honesty, and relatability when engaging with the public. Guided by three primary research questions, this project seeks to identify: (1) which frames and tactics Canadian mining organizations employ when communicating about mining, (2) how these tactics influence engagement among audiences with pro-, anti-, and neutral attitudes toward mining, and (3) whether the use of tactics varies based on the type of organization.

A mixed-methods approach integrates content analysis, survey responses, and thematic analysis. Advertisements, corporate websites, and corporate responsibility documents from various mining organizations are systematically coded to identify framing strategies and communication techniques. To evaluate changes in public perceptions, knowledge, and behaviours, participants complete pre-engagement surveys to establish baseline attitudes toward mining. They then engage with assigned materials in two stages: first independently and later through guided discussion and interviews conducted via Zoom. Post-engagement surveys capture immediate reactions and subsequent changes in perception, knowledge, and potential actions. Transcribed interviews from guided discussions are analyzed thematically to uncover deeper insights into how audiences engage with mining-related messaging.

This research is significant for its focus on the intersection of industry messaging and public engagement, addressing a critical gap in understanding how science communication influences public trust and opinion in resource-driven sectors. Insights from this study will inform best practices for transparent, relatable, and effective communication in the mining industry, with broader implications for improving public engagement strategies in other science-based fields.

How to cite: Onstad, C. and van der Flier-Keller, E.: Preliminary Insights into Science Communication Strategies in Canadian Mining Messaging: A Mixed-Methods Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2911, 2025.

Some environmental issues (nuclear/special wastes, CO2 storage) are extremely long-lasting, from thousand to one million years (Flüeler 2023). Three aspects are mandatory to recognise them adequately: their complexity (e.g., safety “proof”), uncertainty (aleatory/epistemic …), inequality (today’s risk deciders vs. future risk bearers). All require a deep sense of multiperspectivity: Changing perspectives enables a conscious view of an issue from different angles.

With exceptions, conventional practice reveals “technical” and “acceptance” approaches. The problem is said to be solely political, “the public’s” poor state of knowledge spurs the plea for “outreach”, following the “deficit model”: Specialists inform laypeople to close their “information gap”. The long term is covered by safety margins and, as a last resort, by waste retrievability.

Applied research is more sophisticated. Nuclear waste safety cases have become comprehensive, considering insecurities and stakeholder involvement (NEA 2020b). Still, the very long term (10,000y plus) is left to risk analysts. “Communication Across 300 Generations” (Tannenbaum 1984) or “to bridge ten millennia” (Sebeok 1984) are issues reserved to semiotics and not really developed further (NEA 2019). Conserving artefacts and symbols over time seems unsatisfactory, even unrealistic. Site-selection procedures have, partly, recognised the need for decades-long processes (NEA 2020a).

What is “long term”? (cf. Flüeler 2023, 55ff.) It would be futile for society to deal with the year 800,000 AP, but it is to reckon what Brand and Eno called “the Long Now”, https://longnow.org: 10,000 years back and forth, yet a generations-based approach seems more practical, maybe the Canadian First Nations’ yardstick of the Seven Generations (NCSL 2017): “Traditionally, no decision was made until it was understood how it would affect the next seven generations”. Or we draw on Boulding’s suggestion: 100 years backward and foreward (grandparents to grandchildren) (Boulding 1978).

At any rate, our responsibility to future generations “requires new operationalisations, new norms of practice, new sets of values, new virtues, and – last but not least – new institutions” (Birnbacher 1988). It needs new skills for sustainable governance, transparent (digital) dashboards, open online platforms to table/respond to controversial views/assertions, transdisciplinary labs, ways to address indeterminacy (>>“uncertainty”), VR learning machines to train changing perspectives, etc.

The ethical, political and institutional complexity insinuates that there is no silver bullet to tackle the issue of governance: “The solution is easily summarized, but much less easily achieved: to establish ecological reflexivity as a core priority of social, political and economic institutions” (Dryzek/Pickering 2019). We need continual discourse to transform our societies sustainably, rather than pre-fixed concepts in order to restore supposedly paradisiac past states.

____________________

Birnbacher, D. Verantwortung für zukünftige Generationen. Reclam, Stuttgart (transl.).

Boulding, E. The Family as a Way into the Future. Pendle Hill, Wallingford, PA.

Dryzek, J.S./Pickering, J. The Politics of the Anthropocene. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford.

Flüeler, T. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-03902-7.

NCSL. https://healingofthesevengenerations.ca/about/history.

NEA/Nuclear Energy Agency/2019. Preservation of Records, Knowledge and Memory Across Generations. OECD, Paris.

NEA/2020a. Final Disposal of Radioactive Waste. Policy Brief.

NEA/2020b. Two Decades of Safety Case Development: An IGSC Brochure.

Sebeok, T.A. Communication Measures to Bridge Ten Millennia. BMI/ONWI-532. Battelle, Columbus, OH.

Tannenbaum, P.H. Communication Across 300 Generations: Deterring Human Interference with Waste Deposit Sites. BMI/ONWI-535.

How to cite: Flüeler, T.: How to communicate “long term”? 10, 100, 10,000 years …? Practice, research, reflections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4847, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4847, 2025.

EGU25-6769 | Orals | EOS1.1

How do we make an X-ray scan of Earth’s oceanic crust? 

Milena Marjanovic, Simon Besançon, David Hautemayou, Souradeep Mahato, and Ted Luc

Similar to X-rays used in medicine to scan human bodies, to understand the characteristics of the oceanic crust that covers >70% of our planet, marine geophysicists conduct controlled source seismic experiments at sea on research vessels. We produce tiny earthquakes using compressed air, which travel through the subsurface built of different rock types; the differences in the rocks introduce changes in the propagated waves, which are registered by an array of receptors and then processed to produce seismic images. However, this field of research is not commonly known by school students or the general public. To bridge this gap, we designed a seismic atelier to expose the less-known but marvelous world of marine geophysics and show it as a possible career path. The atelier includes a presentation of our work at sea supported by pictures and videos, presentation of the Ocean Bottom Seismometer (OBS) developed and designed internally at IPGP, and model that simulates seismic data acquisition. For this model, we obtained the EGU Public Engagement Award in 2023. The elements that constitute the model:

  • 400 l water tank, floating LEGO ship
  • three 3-D printed OBSs connected to an electromagnetic mechanism that simulate deployment and recovery of the instruments
  • ballons that are perforated under the water to mimic the seismic source
  • hydrophone connected to a laptop for signal recording

The experiment is accompanied by a 5-question quiz tailored to correspond to the age of the participants; all the topics concerning the questions were covered in the presentations. The quiz is conducted before and after the atelier, which helps us to evaluate the impact of outreach activity. All the questions were designed as a multiple-choice. For example, for the age 11-15 years, one question is: What is the temperature of the deep ocean?, with the offered responses: a) 0-3º, b) 23-25ºC, and c) 0 -10 ºC.

We have already run the atelier on two occasions, and the results are promising. The first time was during the Fête de la Science (Open House event in France) at IPGP in early October 2024, during which we presented our atelier to four groups, 10-12 participants (9-12 years old) in each group. The second session was organized with 30 high-school students (~15 years old). The quizzes' analyses clearly show that the number of correct answers increases by up to 50% after the conducted atelier, demonstrating the positive impact of the activity on student knowledge. The results also show that some questions were tackling less-known topics. For instance, the question we gave as an example above was consistently answered incorrectly by ~80% of students before the atelier; in contrast, after the atelier, the situation was reversed, and >90% of the participants gave the correct answer. Overall, the impressions of the students after participating in the atelier, especially the youngest ones, are highly positive, and we hope they will develop a certain level of passion for marine sciences. The next stage for our project would be to film it and make it available online in different languages to reach students internationally.

How to cite: Marjanovic, M., Besançon, S., Hautemayou, D., Mahato, S., and Luc, T.: How do we make an X-ray scan of Earth’s oceanic crust?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6769, 2025.

EGU25-7084 | Orals | EOS1.1

Science Communication through Engagement and Outreach for the bioeconomy 

Chiara Pocaterra, Valeria Mingardi, Laura Mentini, Sara Silvi, and Alessia Careccia

APRE is an Italian non-profit association with a network of more than 160 members from academia and private sector, that has developed extensive expertise in sharing research results to the wider public from several HORIZON EUROPE funded projects across different areas through innovative science communication, education and engagement methodologies.  

Notable projects include the Engage4Bio project which launched actions at a regional level for the deployment of local bioeconomies, achieving new ways to govern societal transformation and engage citizens through awareness raising and education on sustainable production, consumption and lifestyles. The BIOVOICES project raised awareness on the bioeconomy through engagement and exchange of knowledge. The GenB project tested innovative formats and developed concrete products and toolkits to raise awareness and educate students, teachers and multipliers on the circular and sustainable bioeconomy. Finally the BlueRev project increased skilled job opportunities in the bio-based sector for local businesses with training and webinars.  

During these projects, the Authors were able to develop and validate via engagement and participatory processes, innovative science communication formats and concrete methods. Our aim was to raise awareness and educate non-specialised audiences (especially young people, teachers, educators, citizens) on the circular and sustainable bioeconomy, building communities with knowledge and instruments to create, enact, and disseminate sustainable practices. These non-traditional science communication techniques are proving effective and based on artistic/ narrative means and personal interaction that strengthen credibility and trust with the audience.  

In Engage4BIO, art, communication and science were merged by creating an attractive Design Award. The goal of the competition was to encourage artists in finding sustainable solutions through art and design. In this process, science communication played a central role, bridging the gap between creativity and technology.   

The book for children "What's bioeconomy?" was developed by BIOVOICES and it is the first-ever publication written for kids on sustainable and circular bioeconomy. Through an interactive 80 flaps, the book translates complex scientific concepts into easily comprehensible contents for pre- and primary school young people, their parents and teachers to increase awareness on the environmental, social and economic benefits of the bioeconomy and bio-based sectors.  

GenB has designed an educational podcast series for 4-8 year old audience. Using captivating storytelling, and stimulating imagination and curiosity, children can enjoy them on any occasion to explore crucial concepts such as sustainability, circularity, and respect for the environment, making the bioeconomy an accessible and fascinating topic. The podcast features 10 episodes written by selected authors and scientifically validated by experts.   

A participatory photography format for youth was also tested and developed in GenB project, to increase awareness of the applications of science in their everyday contexts. Through photographs or video, young people learned to identify real-world examples of bioeconomy, collecting examples from their daily lives. Photography and visual approach in education creates meaningful connections with places, people, and moments in time, encouraging reflection, insight and awareness, and empowering young people to make more informed decisions about consumption and lifestyle. 

How to cite: Pocaterra, C., Mingardi, V., Mentini, L., Silvi, S., and Careccia, A.: Science Communication through Engagement and Outreach for the bioeconomy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7084, 2025.

EGU25-7405 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Adventures in (geo)science communication: mapping outreach practices into university classrooms 

Philip Heron, Kiona Osowski, Fabio Crameri, and Jamie Williams

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) subjects have historically struggled to be inclusive and accessible to students from diverse backgrounds. Furthermore, STEM subjects have often been rigid in their teaching structure, creating barriers to education for students with more specific (or unrecognised) learning needs. Our STEM outreach course, Think Like A Scientist, has been running in a number of English prisons since 2019, and started in Canada and Australia over the past two years. Our students in prison often have diverse learning needs – a classroom often presents numerous barriers (sensory, communication, information processing, and regulation) which particularly impacts neurodivergent students (e.g., autism, ADHD, OCD, dyslexia, etc.). In our teaching in prison, we have been conscious of creating different educational access points that are not solely reliant on rigid teaching structures.

Although our outreach programme is tailored to the restrictive prison environment, the application of its core principles are fundamental Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI) practices that can be applied to university-level teaching and supervision. Here, we outline the choices we have made in prison education to increase educational engagement for those within the neurodivergent umbrella – and how these choices can map onto university teaching to widen participation for STEM students. Specifically, we will describe our university campus work in a few key areas: creating relatable science content for our geoscience student body, giving students a voice in their education, adding reflection activities, and fostering a classroom environment that is inclusive and accessible to all. Finally, we welcome an open discussion on potential best inclusive practices in the geosciences.

How to cite: Heron, P., Osowski, K., Crameri, F., and Williams, J.: Adventures in (geo)science communication: mapping outreach practices into university classrooms, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7405, 2025.

EGU25-9684 | Orals | EOS1.1

Empowering Stakeholders to Drive Farming System Transition: Conversations on Agroecology 

Taru Sandén, Julia Fohrafellner, Ana Pires da Silva, and Carla Brites

AGROECOLOGY, the European Partnership "Accelerating Farming Systems Transition: Agroecology Living Labs and Research Infrastructures," is a significant European research and innovation initiative involving the European Commission and 26 Member States, Associated Countries, and Third Countries, with a total of 72 partner organizations. The goal of AGROECOLOGY is to assist the agricultural sector in addressing the challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, food security and sovereignty, and environmental sustainability, while ensuring agriculture remains profitable, sustainable, and attractive to farmers.

Transforming the agricultural sector to meet societal and policy demands requires bold and systemic changes. AGROECOLOGY fosters for solutions that leverage natural and biological processes, blending state-of-the-art science, technology, and innovation with farmers' knowledge. By pooling resources from the European Commission and the involved member states and regions, the Partnership funds high-level research in Living Labs and Research Infrastructures, co-creating relevant knowledge and technologies aligned with the priorities of the Strategic Research and Innovation Agenda for the Farming System Transition.

To support these efforts, a range of activities is being implemented to inform, engage, and empower stakeholders. These activities aim to enhance capacities, raise awareness, and facilitate the exchange of knowledge and data. A key element of this effort is the Conversations on Agroecology which serve as foundational steps to strengthen agricultural knowledge and innovation systems (AKIS) for agroecology. These conversations foster collaboration and connections between Living Labs, Research Infrastructures and stakeholders across Europe.

The online Conversations on Agroecology are held monthly throughout the Partnership, enabling the mobilization and networking of agroecology actors in Europe and beyond. In 2024, six online conversations were organized on various themes, such as the role of AKIS for agroecology, agroecological transition, and the power of networks for agroecology. Through these monthly conversations, AGROECOLOGY engages diverse groups of actors, ensuring involvement of institutional AKIS actors, farmers, and farming networks to ensure inclusive participation and drive progress toward sustainable food systems by 2030.

How to cite: Sandén, T., Fohrafellner, J., Pires da Silva, A., and Brites, C.: Empowering Stakeholders to Drive Farming System Transition: Conversations on Agroecology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9684, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9684, 2025.

EGU25-11418 | Orals | EOS1.1

The untapped potential of Citizen Science to support research in the polar regions while educating captive audiences on board expedition cruise vessels. 

Verena Meraldi, Christina Hess, Holly Stainton, Henry Evans, Elizabeth Leane, and Anne Hardy

The popularity and use of Participatory or Citizen Science (CS) in scientific research has increased over the recent years, and the literature reports that CS can promote positive change; enhance public knowledge, understanding, and awareness of environmental issues; and amplify conservation efforts.

Accessibility to polar regions is limited and expensive.  With resources from other traditional platforms (i.e. research vessels and funding) decreasing, research institutions are looking at alternatives that involve partnering with the private sector tourism as a ‘crowdsourcing’ data collection option, with the added benefit of passenger participation and education. CS monitoring is a cost-effective alternative for greater spatial and/or temporal coverage, including geographical areas that remain under-researched. 

HX’s Science & Education Program focuses on broadening guests’ understanding of the polar regions and ecosystems, as well as the impacts of climate change. Our guests become active participants in data collection through an immersive educational onboard program and on-site interaction with researchers. During 2024 we allocated over 1900 cruise nights to welcome 80+ researchers from collaborating institutions on our vessels and our guests contributed more than 30,000 data submissions to over 20 different CS projects globally.

To better understand this potential and to evaluate the longer-term effect of participation in CS and science related activities on guests, HX carried out a research project in partnership with UTAS during 2022 and 2023. Results from semi-structured interviews with over 70 guests on three HX vessels suggest that guests saw CS, and the Science & Education program more generally, as a core part of their experience, and many returned with a heightened sense of the fragility of the region.

However, and as an example, HX represents approximately 8% of the Antarctic expedition cruising tourism. The full potential for future partnerships to tap into these vast resources as an industry is yet to be realized.

How to cite: Meraldi, V., Hess, C., Stainton, H., Evans, H., Leane, E., and Hardy, A.: The untapped potential of Citizen Science to support research in the polar regions while educating captive audiences on board expedition cruise vessels., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11418, 2025.

EGU25-12106 | ECS | Orals | EOS1.1

Current progress of the QuakeShake outreach programme. How are earthquakes being brought to the attention of Irish society? 

Laura Reilly, Martin Möllhoff, Christopher Bean, Siobhán Power, Louise Collins, Patrick Smith, James Grannell, Huda Mohamed, Emma Smithers, and Philippe Grange

Most people in Irish society, when asked, “Do we experience earthquakes in Ireland?” would likely answer, “No we don’t”. However, this is incorrect – earthquakes do occur in Ireland and are occasionally felt. This misconception is understandable as Ireland is not located near the edge of a plate boundary and the earthquakes we experience tend to be of very low magnitude (M2.5 is the largest onshore Irish earthquake recorded so far). As a result, earthquakes are not a regular thought for the population of Ireland. We aim to raise awareness on this topic.

The QuakeShake programme has these main aims:

  • Encourage Irish society to consider seismic activity and monitor seismic events both locally and globally and thereby develop an integrated community of citizen seismologists throughout Ireland.
  • Provide teaching resources for educators and school students.
  • Inspire interest in Physical and Earth Sciences at tertiary levels.
  • Support the government’s STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering Art and Mathematics) initiative.
  • Foster a closer relationship between researchers and citizens.
  • Gather and share seismic data to support scientific research in various seismological fields.

The programme is managed by the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies (DIAS) and co-funded by DIAS, Geological Survey Ireland (GSI), and Research Ireland. QuakeShake functions as the outreach programme for the Irish National Seismic Network (INSN), the national earthquake monitoring body in Ireland. It supports and promotes the monitoring efforts of the INSN.

QuakeShake is facilitating the operation of affordable seismometers, known as Raspberry Shakes, in schools, homes, and public institutions. These compact, professional grade seismometers require only power and internet connectivity to operate. In 2024, QuakeShake distributed seismometers via public raffle and workshops for teachers and the public. In 2025, the aim is to distribute even more Raspberry Shake devices and encourage the public and schools to acquire their own units. 

At EGU 2025 we will showcase the programmes development, aimed at educating people from all backgrounds in Ireland about both Irish and Global earthquakes. We will illustrate how QuakeShake is actively building a community of citizen seismologists across Ireland.

How to cite: Reilly, L., Möllhoff, M., Bean, C., Power, S., Collins, L., Smith, P., Grannell, J., Mohamed, H., Smithers, E., and Grange, P.: Current progress of the QuakeShake outreach programme. How are earthquakes being brought to the attention of Irish society?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12106, 2025.

EGU25-12352 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS1.1

GUAYOTA: a weekly multi-language chart information on the seismo-volcanic activity in the Canary Islands  

Andrea Alonso, Daniel Prieto, Rubén García-Hernández, David Afonso, Héctor de los Rios, Luca D’Auria, and Nemesio M. Pérez

Scientific communication is a key pillar of the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN). In this context, Guayota is a weekly multilingual graphic report that summarizes seismic-volcanic activity in the Canary Islands. This resource analyzes the earthquakes recorded over the past week, detailing their location, magnitude, and energy released. A color-coded map visually represents the magnitudes (red for >4, orange for 3-4, yellow for 2-3, and green for <2), providing an intuitive overview of the most relevant data. Additionally, the report includes the total number of seismic events, the energy in joules, and the maximum recorded magnitude. 

The report also incorporates the volcanic alert system, based on four color levels from the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Emergency Response to Volcanic Risk in the Canary Islands (PEVOLCA), to assess the hazard level. An accompanying table highlights key parameters such as seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions on the most volcanically active islands: La Palma, El Hierro, Tenerife, Gran Canaria, and Lanzarote. 

Guayota is published every Friday on INVOLCAN's social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter/X, and its website, ensuring that the information is accessible, educational, and timely. This initiative plays a crucial role in keeping the population of the Canary Islands informed with reliable, accurate, and easily understandable data. By raising public awareness, it helps communities better understand and prepare for the risks of living in a volcanically active environment. These efforts enhance community resilience and promote safer coexistence. In doing so, INVOLCAN reaffirms its commitment to scientific outreach, education, and effective volcanic risk management. 

How to cite: Alonso, A., Prieto, D., García-Hernández, R., Afonso, D., de los Rios, H., D’Auria, L., and Pérez, N. M.: GUAYOTA: a weekly multi-language chart information on the seismo-volcanic activity in the Canary Islands , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12352, 2025.

EGU25-13449 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Increasing awareness on geophysical environment: a multi-sensory experience of rainfall 

Auguste Gires and Eleonora Dallan

Rainfall is very commonly experienced by most people, often seen as a constraint. Anyway, usually people are not really paying attention to it, being too busy with their daily life. As rainfall and hydrology scientists, we aim to reach out to the general public to increase knowledge in an area of widespread misinformation. More importantly, we aim to enhance curiosity and awareness of people in their geophysical environment. In order to contribute to this much needed efforts, we designed and implemented a series of multisensory experiences centered on rainfall with three purpose in mind: i) Actively engage people on geoscience topics by pushing them to pay attention to their environment ; ii) Create a simple and pleasant moment for people enabling to focus on geophysical environment. iii) Create some new knowledge on rainfall for them. With regards to the latter point, the involvement of one’s senses is a great tool to facilitate memorization.

The experiences are simple and do not require any material, apart from an available mind and some rainfall. Three examples are feeling the drops and their sizes on the hand or face while walking; listening to the rain falling on something (tent, umbrella, sheet of metal…); looking at the rain falling near a lamppost at night. Each experience has a simple take home message. The first one is related to the various sizes of drops, the second one to the temporal variability of rainfall, while the third one enables to notice the temporal variability of both rainfall and wind. 

The process is designed as follows. A short description of the suggested experience is given to people. Once they have implemented them, they are asked to fill a rather open/free form to report their sensations and findings. After they are given some explanations on the take home messages we originally had in mind, which does not necessarily match their own feeling. If they are interested in doing it again, they are invited to provide new sets of feedback. 

In a first step, the whole process was tested with 10-15 people with various backgrounds and who have no expertise in rainfall. Results of this preliminary implementation will be presented in this poster. They are used to tune the process, i.e. the experiences, the short description and also the explanations of the take home message. In future investigations, it will be implemented with a larger number of people to obtain more quantitative and robust results.

How to cite: Gires, A. and Dallan, E.: Increasing awareness on geophysical environment: a multi-sensory experience of rainfall, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13449, 2025.

EGU25-13520 | Orals | EOS1.1 | Katia and Maurice Krafft Award Lecture

An impact-driven approach to geoscience communication 

Heather Handley

Geoscience plays a vital role in shaping our sustainable future, yet the discipline is at a critical crossroads. Declining student enrolments, reduced course offerings, and the closure of university departments threaten its survival. Key challenges include public perceptions of geoscience and associated industries, its lack of visibility in school curricula, outdated branding and stereotypes, and issues related to diversity and inclusion. As students increasingly seek altruistic, sustainability-focused careers, geoscience must respond rapidly or risk further decline. A more strategic, impact-driven approach to geoscience communication is essential to address the discipline’s struggling brand image. This presentation takes you behind the scenes of the Earth Futures Festival, an international geoscience film and video festival. The festival bridges the arts and sciences to demonstrate how geoscience, combined with long-standing cultural knowledge of the Earth, offers solutions to pressing global challenges. We will explore the impact-focused approach underpinning the festival’s design, including forging value-aligned partnerships, providing communication skills training for geoscientists, and amplifying the visibility of typically underrepresented groups. This talk will provide a step-by-step practical guide to illustrate how impact-focused design can be effectively applied to geoscience communication and outreach.

How to cite: Handley, H.: An impact-driven approach to geoscience communication, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13520, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13520, 2025.

Podcasting about science is thriving.  In the Earth sciences alone, there are at least 15 podcasts.  How do such podcasts fit within the ecosystem of informal science education alongside museums, field trips and other resources?  Can podcasts convey the core results of present-day research without sacrificing their essence and subtlety?  Are researchers willing to make time to contribute to podcasts?  Who is listening to these podcasts and what are they seeking from them?  Does AI-enabled translation and transcription help reach listeners from hitherto less well-served geographies?  The presentation will address such questions and use examples from Geology Bites and other podcasts. 

How to cite: Strimpel, O.: Using podcasts to disseminate the essence and excitement of scientific research, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13862, 2025.

EGU25-14045 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Audio narratives of long-term disaster recovery and climate change adaptation 

Mario Soriano, Reed Maxwell, and Allison Carruth

In the wake of disasters, storytelling can function as a means for collective sensemaking, trauma recovery, and community-centered knowledge co-production. Through the practice of listening and the medium of voice, audio stories can convey culturally specific knowledge that engages emotions while fostering dialogic thinking on complex topics. Here, we detail our experience in research and producing a public-facing audio story series about communities facing displacement and loss from water-related disasters. First, we traveled in 2023 to communities in the central Philippines devastated by 2013’s Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), one of the deadliest and strongest storms to make landfall in modern history. We conducted field interviews with Haiyan survivors and responders, local policymakers, practitioners, and researchers in the months leading up to the tenth-year commemoration of the storm. Their narratives allowed us to ground discourses about learning from disaster in mass media and academic research—discourses that we examined via a computational analysis of over 15,000 newspaper articles and 300 academic abstracts on Haiyan. The second story series explores perspectives on climate retreat in the wake of floods and increasing flood risks in New Jersey. This series centers the voices of homeowners considering property buyouts through a state program, local officials, as well as scientists who are documenting the social and physical impacts of more intense flooding and sea level rise in real time. Titled Carried by Water and produced by Princeton’s Blue Lab, these interrelated series anchor academic framings of disaster in lived experience and first-person narratives. The project does so to shed light on long-term recovery, learning processes applied to everyday decision-making, and diverse understandings of disasters, home, agency, risk, and climate resilience.

How to cite: Soriano, M., Maxwell, R., and Carruth, A.: Audio narratives of long-term disaster recovery and climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14045, 2025.

EGU25-14200 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Promoting Geosciences: Effective Communication Strategies for the International Geological Congress (IGC) 2028 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. 

Katherine Boggs, Amrine Dubois Gafar, David Eaton, Lilian Navarro, Jerry Demorcy, Holly Bley, Jesus Rojas Parra, and Richard Carlisle

The International Geological Congress (IGC) 2028 is returning to Canada, after an absence of over 50 years (1972, Montreal). Hosted in Calgary, Alberta, this will mark the first IGC to be held in western North America. We look forward to showcasing our “Gorgeous Geology” and “Legendary Landscapes” with the world’s geoscience community. Field trip opportunities include the Mohorovic discontinuity and glacial fjords in UNESCO World Heritage Site (UWHS) Gros Morne National Park (Newfoundland), the Carboniferous Forests at UWHS Joggins Fossil Cliffs (Nova Scotia), the Logan Line separating the Appalachians from the Grenville Province of the Canadian Shield in UWHS Quebec City (Quebec), the Cretaceous Dinosaur fossil beds at UWHS Dinosaur Provincial Park (Alberta), and evidence for the Cambrian Explosion of Life in the Burgess Shale surrounded by glaciers across the UWHS Rocky Mountain Parks (Alberta/British Columbia). Potential Indigenous cultural day trips from Calgary include Blackfoot Crossing, UWHS Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump, and UWHS Writing-on-Stone Provincial Park, also known as the “Blackfoot Archives” because of the thousands of pictographs throughout the park.

Here we report on the overall communications plan, starting with phase one leading into IGC 2024 in which a powerful social media presence became the potential game-changer to connect with the target audiences such as the national and global geoscience community, as well as the general public. This connection built brand awareness while unearthing enthusiasm for the destination and program. Stage one for the social media campaign involved a recent three-month social media campaign with daily bilingual postings on Facebook, Instagram, X, LinkedIn and YouTube. Social media was important for achieving the goals of: i) promoting Canadian geosciences, ii) highlighting the conference tagline “Geosciences for Humanity” and iii) building awareness about the Canadian bid. During IGC 2024 the social media team also promoted the events that happened at the Canadian Booth and Reception, reflecting Calgary’s renowned hospitality such as the White Hat Ceremony swearing in 30 IGC delegates as honorary Calgarians. This strategy united the international geoscience community, emphasizing the collaborative spirit that we aim to foster for IGC 2028.

The stage two of the social media (post-bid) campaign started at the end of 2024. Weekly themes promote Indigenous and geotourism offerings across Canada, with three weekly postings to showcase content. After winning the bid to host IGC 2028, interest from the local media was sparked after a press release led by the University of Calgary framing this as the “Olympics of the Geosciences”. Co-chairs Boggs and Eaton were interviewed on TV and Radio. Further press releases will follow in upcoming years to profile plenary speakers and advertise the Keynote Daily Themes (KDT) to local public schools and universities across Canada. KDTs such as “Space and Planetary Geosciences” will springboard off the Artemis II Mission which will be circumnavigating the moon in 2025 with Canadian Astronaut Jeremy Hansen onboard.

 

How to cite: Boggs, K., Dubois Gafar, A., Eaton, D., Navarro, L., Demorcy, J., Bley, H., Rojas Parra, J., and Carlisle, R.: Promoting Geosciences: Effective Communication Strategies for the International Geological Congress (IGC) 2028 in Calgary, Alberta, Canada., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14200, 2025.

EGU25-14325 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Talk2Geo: Hablemos de Geociencias, a geoscience outreach project 

Catalina Cabello, Denisse Leal, and Martin Riedel-Hornig

Engaging the community with geosciences has always been a big challenge for geoscientists. It has become increasingly important in the face of widespread misinformation on social media. To address this, the “Talk2Geo: Hablemos de Geociencias (Let’s talk about geoscience)” project was created to bridge the gap between geoscientists and the general public in an informal and approachable setting, where people don’t feel afraid or ashamed to asks questions.

We dropped the traditional structure of the academia and took researchers from the Universidad de Concepción away from the university, to a local restobar. There, through the course of the first semester of 2024, we organized six conservatories. Scientist were asked to present a brief introduction to their research topic in a non-scientific, everyday language. The audience was encouraged to ask questions and engage in discussions throughout the talks. These interactions often guided the development of the topics, fostering an open and dynamic dialogue. The addressed themes were stratigraphy, hydrothermal waters, volcanoes, field geology, earthquakes and landslides.

The talks had a great reception from the public, who participated actively and asked abundant questions. We compiled these questions and general topics of interest about each of the themes and presented the results to academics at the university, not only to bring sciences to the public but to also bring peoples interests to academics, hoping to have an impact in the development of future research topics.

How to cite: Cabello, C., Leal, D., and Riedel-Hornig, M.: Talk2Geo: Hablemos de Geociencias, a geoscience outreach project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14325, 2025.

An Exploration of Co-creation Through the Memory of Darkness, Light, and Ice discusses a successful co-creation of a film project with sicentsits and film professionals from Europe and the US. The resulting film,The Memory of Darkness, Light, and Ice is about the science of how a long-lost sediment core reveals crucial clues about the disappearance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and global sea level rise. Scientists find the sediment from a secret sub-ice US Milirary Cold War base in the Arctic holding clues to the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and completely transforming our understanding of ice sheet collapse. The film was an enormous undertaking to follow the science across nine laboratories in the US and Europe and highlights some of the most remote locations in Greenland. The E&O generated not only important outreach for science, but also built on practical and theoretical research within film. The collaborative academic model built the E&O team within the science team rather than as an ad hoc external team. This approach developed an atmosphere of co-creation. During this presentation, Kasic will sceen excerpts of the film and will be availabe to discuss the combined traditional and non-traditional approaches the project took to E&O, from conception to completion. 

Here is a private link to the film in its entirety:

The Memory of Darkness, Light, and Ice

Link to trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukf54a6ZRW0

Full Film available for screening upon request.

How to cite: Kasic, K.: An Exploration of Co-creation Through the Memory of Darkness, Light, and Ice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14662, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14662, 2025.

EGU25-15176 | Orals | EOS1.1

Experiencing soil perspectives – an interdisciplinary approach to transform soil science 

Giulia Bongiorno, Dienke Stomph, Wietse Wiersma, and Jillian Student

How do soil scientists perceive and experience soils? They use a wide variety of devices and tools, such as microscopes, laboratory equipment and field campaigns, and they summarize their knowledge through publications, graphs, and tables. Approaching soils with this academic perspective is likely to cause scientists to have different relationships with soils than people without soil science training. Humans have relationships with soils, and in addition to the science-based ones, these relationships can be personal, artistic, cultural, sensorial and more. Clearly, soils matter at many levels since people and communities can feel a deep connection with the soil of their homeland, as a source of identity, sustenance and a sense of place and belonging. What we proposed during the Wageningen Soil Conference 2023 was to let soil scientists discover the diversity in ways that soils can be experienced and perceived so to facilitate a positive transformation on how do we do soil science. During these event we took participants beyond the scientific perspective in an informal and relaxed space where we engaged with soils in unexpected and creative ways. Seventeen ‘stations’ were dedicated to experiencing colors, smells, tastes, textures, sounds, visuals, emotions and feelings peculiar to soils. Each station was organized by either a scientist or an artist that was present to encourage discussions, conversations and sharing of stories to inspire to experience new soil perspectives. One of the goals of this exercise was to expand (transform) the, often narrow, view of soil scientists on soils and let them discover other dimensions which can allow them to better connect with society and inspire them to share their work and knowledge about soil. This event was just the beginning of our collaboration towards experiencing soil perspectives and more events using the same or a similar format for different stakeholder groups (non-soil scientist, general public) were organized. During the conference we will share our concept, experiences and reflection with a broader group of soil scientists also reflecting about the experiences derived from the course ‘Transformative soil science’ hold in November 2024. The course was grounded in transdisciplinary perspectives from natural and social sciences and the humanities, and helped early-career scientists to understand their own perspectives on soil, and how to connect with other perspectives in an integral way of knowledge generation that contributes to meaningful transformations.

How to cite: Bongiorno, G., Stomph, D., Wiersma, W., and Student, J.: Experiencing soil perspectives – an interdisciplinary approach to transform soil science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15176, 2025.

EGU25-15618 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS1.1

CURIOSOIL: Join us to raise awareness and curiosity about soils! 

Sabine Huber, Marie-Cécile Gruselle, Katharina Keiblinger, Ingrid Lubbers, Sónia Rodrigues, Hanne Ugstad, Jannes Stolte, Nafiseh Taghizadeh Kerman, Frederik Bøe, and Franziska Fischer

Soil health plays a crucial role in ecosystem functioning and is closely linked to human life. However, land and soil degradation are widespread due to environmental and anthropogenic threats. Soil knowledge is essential to address modern global challenges. Despite the important role of soils, they are often underappreciated by the general population, highlighting the need to raise soil awareness. The EU project CURIOSOIL (2024-2028, co-funded by the European Union: URL: curiosoil.eu) therefore aims at raising soil literacy and promoting a positive narrative around soils. CURIOSOIL focuses on enhancing soil literacy by triggering soil curiosity and connections between society and soil. According to the EU Mission Soil Implementation plan, soil literacy refers to both awareness about the importance of soil and practice-oriented knowledge related to achieving soil health. Soil literacy and education are crucial to environmental sustainability and the future of societies.

With this poster contribution, we seek to explore to what extent university students and scientists at EGU are willing to reflect on their own attitudes and behaviors toward soils using a participatory approach. We hypothesize that participating in discussions and reflection exercises about soil helps to increase awareness, spark curiosity, and encourage action to solve soil-related issues. We therefore invite conference participants to actively engage with us through our participatory poster. The participants are invited to answer targeted questions, write down and display their reflections directly on the poster, via post-its and/or via a digital survey. These questions are aligned with learning objectives and competences of soil literacy related to knowledge, attitudes and behavior towards soil.  All collected information will be anonymized to ensure privacy and confidentiality. To the best of our knowledge, this participatory approach is new to soil science as usually data are presented and not collected during a soil science conference. We therefore also aim to introduce the participatory poster as a research tool for data collection. Additionally, it serves as a communication instrument to encourage reflection on individual perspectives towards soil and promote an active role of raising soil awareness in society.

Specifically, our objectives are to: 1) collaboratively (the presenter and conference participants together) reflect on our knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors including emotions and habits related to soils, 2) discuss factors that influence our connection with soils (or lack thereof), 3) brainstorm on ways to create formal and informal environments that improve awareness, curiosity and learning about soils. Our findings will be used to design CURIOSOIL educational materials that will be made available for free on the project website (curiosoil.eu).

In summary, we believe that our participatory approach can enhance soil awareness, curiosity and learning. We intend to bridge the gap between society and soils to encourage careful and sustainable soil use and protect soil health. Moreover, our participatory approach is designed to engage scientists, foster multidisciplinary collaborations between social and natural scientists towards co-creation of educational materials, as well as to contribute meaningfully to natural science research.

How to cite: Huber, S., Gruselle, M.-C., Keiblinger, K., Lubbers, I., Rodrigues, S., Ugstad, H., Stolte, J., Taghizadeh Kerman, N., Bøe, F., and Fischer, F.: CURIOSOIL: Join us to raise awareness and curiosity about soils!, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15618, 2025.

EGU25-16949 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Integrating the results of an interdisciplinary project over social and natural sciences: the Cliwac Explorer 

Márk Somogyvári, Fabio Brill, Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Jakob Fischer, and Tobias Sauter

Inter- and transdisciplinary projects often face the challenge of becoming scattered, due to the challenges of communication, collaboration and data integration. While co-design and close collaboration between all involved actors have been widely recommended to address congruence and representativity of all disciplines on the results and reports, inter- and transdisciplinary research often lacks platforms where these practices can be effectively carried out. The Einstein Research Unit “Climate and Water under Change” (CliWaC) investigated water-related issues in the Berlin-Brandenburg region, Germany, from diverse perspectives of more than 20 individual research groups across a wide range of disciplines - thus making it a perfect case for researching integration tools. By the end of the three-year project, we have developed a knowledge-based interactive data platform called the CliWaC Explorer, that can address the abovementioned issues and present research results and products in a coherent whole.

The CliWaC Explorer is designed as a multi-purpose tool: as a data-exploration platform for researchers studying water-related issues in the region, as a decision support tool for stakeholders and as an education and outreach tool for the wider public. One of the biggest challenges was to appeal to both a natural and a social science user base. We achieved this by allowing the users to both navigate topics spatially, as commonly done in map-based natural sciences or in a thematic plane, where project parts are organized according to their thematic relationships. The explorer has been developed with close collaboration of the project partners, and currently being further developed with a series of workshops, to be accessible by a wider user base including stakeholders and educators. We believe our platform could provide a template of how interdisciplinary research can be integrated, and how its results can be communicated to a wider audience.

How to cite: Somogyvári, M., Brill, F., Alencar, P. H. L., Fischer, J., and Sauter, T.: Integrating the results of an interdisciplinary project over social and natural sciences: the Cliwac Explorer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16949, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16949, 2025.

EGU25-17396 | Orals | EOS1.1

A Smart Platform for Enhancing Soil and Land Awareness in Italy 

Florindo Antonio Mileti, Mario Tatone, Fabio Terribile, and Bojan Blazica

Ecotourism and rural tourism are pivotal activities for generating substantial income, supporting rural economies, and fostering a deeper understanding of land and soil resources in various regions, particularly in inland areas. Recognizing their significance, the United Nations has included these activities in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (specifically SDG 8.9 and SDG 12), aiming for their accomplishment by 2030. While digital tourism has experienced remarkable growth recently, its focus largely remains on well-known tourist destinations.

This study highlight the potential of a geospatial decision support system (S-DSS) built on a publicly accessible, web-based geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI). This system offers a practical and effective tool to enhance tourism opportunities in less-visited inland areas promoting a greater appreciation of soil and land environmental resources.

The S-DSS platform is designed to facilitate the collection, management, processing, and analysis of both static (e.g., information on soil and geology) and dynamic data (e.g., climatic data). It also features advanced data visualization and on-the-fly computational tools, catering to a diverse user base that includes farmers, tourism operators, associations, and public institutions.

The S-DSS tool known as EcoSmarTour operates across the entirety of Italy, providing extensive information, including detailed soil information, to expand territorial knowledge. It supports scenario analysis, map generation, and the assessment of potential trails or ecotourism hotspots. Also, through the use of artificial intelligence, EcoSmarTour can generate text-based narratives of selected routes, tailored to the user’s preferences. This functionality enables the creation of customized storytelling for various audiences, from children and teenagers to adults and experts.

How to cite: Mileti, F. A., Tatone, M., Terribile, F., and Blazica, B.: A Smart Platform for Enhancing Soil and Land Awareness in Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17396, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17396, 2025.

EGU25-18051 | Orals | EOS1.1

Soils in Society: Digging into Narratives and Perceptions for a Deeper Understanding 

Daniela Sauer, Daniel Schwindt, Nikola Patzel, Facundo Luis Lucas, Sophie Raous, Francesca Bampa, Laura Mellanen, and Helinä Melkas and the SOILSCAPE Team

“In the end, we will conserve only what we love; we will love only what we understand; and we will understand only what we are taught.” These words by forestry engineer Baba Dioum in 1968 reflect, how the relationship between people and forests has intensified over recent decades, a development that has significantly contributed to forest conservation. Unlike trees, esthetical and vital soils are rarely exposed for people to see, understand, or appreciate, making it harder to foster a connection to them.

The EU project SOILSCAPE (Spreading Open and Inclusive Literacy and Soil Culture through Artistic Practices and Education) aims to bring soils closer to the public. Alongside modern communication methods, the project places a strong emphasis on artistic approaches to promote awareness, understanding, and love for soils in their context.

In a first step towards this goal, current narratives were analyzed through a media study that examined coverage in newspapers, television, podcasts, and social networks. Thereby, the guiding questions were: What knowledge and opinions are there? Which imaginations and associations regarding soils do we find in society - and of whom? For exploring these questions, we conducted a survey using a verbal and visual questionnaire and follow-up expert interviews. Our analysis aimed at assessing dominant soil narratives and their potential impacts, and at preparing effective strategies to strengthen connections between people and soils, including cultural and artistic approaches. Thereby, we addressed societal narratives, imaginaries, and values related to soils, particularly focusing their perception and communication. The media research, questionnaire-based survey, and expert interviews were conducted in eight European countries: Bulgaria, Germany, Finland, France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, and Switzerland. The study yielded almost 100 datasets from the media analysis, 435 complete responses from the visual-based questionnaire, and 24 expert interviews, providing a robust foundation for understanding how soils are perceived and how soil awareness in the European public can be more effectively enhanced.

Our results from the media research show that soils are mostly not in the focus of media, but rather treated as functional elements in discussions related to agriculture, climate change, and urbanization. People tend to perceive soils indirectly, through their use and significance in these broader contexts. Perception of soils varies widely depending on region and prior knowledge. Around 40% of participants felt that soils in their region are in poor condition, while another 40% were unsure. Primary threats to soil that were named by people included agriculture, forestry, biodiversity loss, and climate change.

These outcomes of this study point to a gap between implicit and explicit awareness of soil-related challenges. While artistic and educational approaches seem most promising in bridging this gap, the results of our study highlight the urgent need for targeted communication strategies to raise the awareness of soils and make them a topic of societal concern. Only by fostering a deeper public understanding, a stronger connection to and protection of this critical resource can be achieved.

How to cite: Sauer, D., Schwindt, D., Patzel, N., Luis Lucas, F., Raous, S., Bampa, F., Mellanen, L., and Melkas, H. and the SOILSCAPE Team: Soils in Society: Digging into Narratives and Perceptions for a Deeper Understanding, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18051, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18051, 2025.

EGU25-18409 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Communicating remotely sensed pan-arctic permafrost land surface changes to non-specialist audiences with the Arctic Landscape EXplorer (ALEX) 

Tillmann Lübker, Ingmar Nitze, Sebastian Laboor, Anna Irrgang, Hugues Lantuit, and Guido Grosse

Climate change has led to an increase in permafrost warming and thaw at global scale. Land surface changes associated with permafrost thaw include the acceleration of Arctic coastal erosion, increased thaw slumping in ice-rich regions, the drainage and formation of lakes, as well as an intensification of other disturbances, such as forest and tundra fires and droughts. Thermo-erosion threatens infrastructure and leads to gullying, slumping, and even landslides. To detect and map such permafrost disturbances at high spatial resolution across large regions and to quantify land surface change, remote sensing analyses can be applied. In the ERC PETA-CARB, ESA CCI Permafrost, and NSF Permafrost Discovery Gateway projects, a pan-arctic 20-years time series of land surface disturbance trends was produced using Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI imagery. The dataset presents a valuable source of information for Arctic communities, planners, stakeholders, and rights holders. Arctic communities living on frozen ground are increasingly forced to adapt their livelihoods to permafrost thaw. In some areas, the relocation of settlements has become the last resort and is already actively planned for several communities in Alaska.

To make the large landscape change dataset more easily accessible to non-specialist audiences, within the EU Arctic PASSION project, we designed a new web-based portal tailored towards such audiences and the sometimes limited internet bandwidths encountered in Arctic communities. The Arctic Landscape EXplorer (ALEX, https://alex.awi.de) was launched in early 2024 and provides interactive maps displaying recent information on land surface changes, hot spots of disturbances, and potential areas of active permafrost thaw and erosion. While focusing on the local to regional scale relevant for private users, regional, and state-level decision makers, exploring the data up to the pan-arctic scale may open new avenues for understanding permafrost change for the general public. A new release of ALEX in early 2025 will provide several new features. On the portal's home page, a new section will highlight selected locations in the Arctic with extraordinary land surface changes, accompanied by contextual information. On the map, users will be able to easily compare the change data with satellite imagery and other reference maps using a swipe and fade toolbox. Sharing specific map views will also be enabled. A second story map focusing on shore erosion explains geophysical processes and the role of permafrost.

Consultations with local representatives and stakeholders in Alaska, requests from members of governmental and tribal entities to reuse our data, and inquiries from research partners in the Arctic confirm that our transfer efforts have met real needs. This positive feedback encourages us to continue updating the tool beyond the end of the Arctic PASSION project.

How to cite: Lübker, T., Nitze, I., Laboor, S., Irrgang, A., Lantuit, H., and Grosse, G.: Communicating remotely sensed pan-arctic permafrost land surface changes to non-specialist audiences with the Arctic Landscape EXplorer (ALEX), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18409, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18409, 2025.

Climate adaptation action is increasingly both local and urgent. Reasons for including citizen and community voices in decision-making range from securing climate justice to generating more apt solutions and increasing public acceptance of interventions. More broadly, attempts to rebuild public trust in democracy and public institutions has led to a surge in citizen engagement initiatives for decision making in a whole range of subjects.

This confluence of trends has generated an ever-growing knowledge and experience base and countless publications that call for citizen engagement in climate change adaptation efforts, provide best practices for citizen engagement, and occasionally both. However, the enormous breadth of the intended audiences means that in almost all cases, these best practice guides focus on citizen engagement in general.

As part of the Adaptation AGORA project – a 3-year Mission Adaptation project that brings together researchers and practitioners from 12 institutes from across Europe – we have spent two years mapping European adaptation-related citizen engagement initiatives ( CEIs), interviewing experts across the CEI value chain and carrying out interactive workshops in attempt to identify best practices. The variety of adaptation contexts and wide range of possible (positive and negative) outcomes and impacts from CEIs pushed us beyond only looking for universal good practices to also consider those that lead to specific outcomes, like generating more just decisions, being tailored to the local settings in which they apply, promoting mutual learning, or producing improved collaboration.

We find that choices taken when designing initiatives are key to the achievement of different goals. Some general good practices can almost universally be applied, like setting a clear objective, and ensuring effective communication before, during and after the initiative. However, beyond these straightforward observations, the variety of primary and secondary objectives (awareness raising, allocating public resources, generating ideas, creating guidelines, forming long-term plans etc.) and the myriad of contextual factors (scale, scope, location, resources, familiarity with citizen engagement etc.) frustrate identifying the best practices to pursue among a surfeit of potential actions. Essentially, what is often missing from existing best-practice guides is a framework to prioritise what can be achieved with limited resources to meet the identified goals. Indeed, the relative merit of different practices in achieving different goals is well understood only by a few seasoned experts, and frequently a challenge to communicate.

Hoping to facilitate discussion and the exchange of different perspectives, we propose a serious game, Citi-Adapt, that seeks to visibilise the trade offs and push collaborative teams to collectively seek better design choices in the pursuit of different goals in unique contexts. Citi-Adapt allows us to add in different constraints, to situate CEIs in different contexts, and for different actors to walk in each other's shoes. It can be played in two ways – 1) exploring the types of resources required to achieve certain goals; and 2) identifying possible outcomes based on available resources – and we would be delighted to present it and hear your thoughts as we move to building a prototype.

How to cite: Pickard, S. and Baulenas, E.: Citi-Adapt: Communicating design decisions for citizen engagement in climate adaptation action via a serious game, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18809, 2025.

EGU25-19249 | Orals | EOS1.1

Storm-Resolving Earth System Models to Support Renewable Energy Transitions: mixing storyline methodologies to bridge science and society 

Eulàlia Baulenas, Dragana Bojovic, Menno Veerman, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Aleksander Lacima-Nadolnik, Kerstin Haslehner, Arjun Kumar, Carlos Delgado-Torres, and Albert Soret

This study investigates the co-production and science communication efforts surrounding the use of storm-resolving Earth system models (SR-ESMs) to support the renewable energy transition. The models were developed under the Horizon Europe EU-funded project Next Generation of Earth System Models (NextGEMS) in the course of 3,5 years. 

By engaging in participatory workshops with stakeholders from the energy sector—including policymakers, energy providers, and civil society—we co-created scenario storylines that integrate the km-scale climate model outputs with socio-political narratives. These workshops served as a platform for dialogue, enabling the communication of complex scientific findings in a manner accessible to non-specialist audiences, and also exploring the way in which SR-ESMs can move forward to support key societal challenges such as the energy transition.

The co-production process and communication strategy were informed by exploring stakeholder perspectives and preferences, which helped design the scenarios that could be later on represented by the SR-ESMs. Specifically, the use of discourse-analytical methods helped identify key narratives that resonate with different audience segments, ensuring the models' outputs are framed in ways that address socio-environmental concerns, such as the public acceptance of renewable energy technologies.

Our communication efforts revealed several lessons: the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, the value of iterative engagement with stakeholders, and the need for flexible strategies that adapt to evolving audience needs. These insights contribute to best practices in science communication, emphasizing the role of co-production in making scientific information actionable and impactful for policy and societal change.

How to cite: Baulenas, E., Bojovic, D., Veerman, M., Dolores-Tesillos, E., Lacima-Nadolnik, A., Haslehner, K., Kumar, A., Delgado-Torres, C., and Soret, A.: Storm-Resolving Earth System Models to Support Renewable Energy Transitions: mixing storyline methodologies to bridge science and society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19249, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19249, 2025.

EGU25-19274 | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Prioritizing Soil Literacy: An AHP-Based Approach 

Ingrid Lubbers, Nafiseh Taghizadeh Kerman, Sónia Morias Rodrigues, and Omid Noroozi

Soil plays a fundamental role in terrestrial ecosystems, acting as a medium for plants and other organisms while supporting all terrestrial life by providing essential conditions for growth and development. Despite its critical importance, the role of soil is often undervalued. The CURIOSOIL project aims to ignite curiosity about soils, enhance soil literacy, and foster meaningful connections between people and soil. CURIOSOIL focuses on improving soil education, addressing the pressing need for a stronger connection with soil amidst increasing human pressures on this vital resource. The project seeks to bridge gaps in soil knowledge among pupils, students, teachers, citizens, policymakers, and practitioners, thereby addressing soil illiteracy, a significant barrier to sustainable soil use. A key part of CURIOSOIL is the development of the Soil Literacy Assessment Framework (SLAF) for five target groups: primary education, secondary education, tertiary education, teachers, and lifelong learners. To achieve this, we identified the core main domains and subdomains of soil literacy in consultation with soil experts and stakeholders in soil education and lifelong learning. Four main domains have been defined: soil diversity, soil services, soil threats, and soil solutions.

This study prioritized these main domains and subdomains for designing a valid soil literacy assessment framework (SLAF) in diverse target groups. Furthermore, understanding the relative importance of these main domains (and subdomains) enables educators and policymakers to focus on the most impactful areas, ensuring that soil education efforts address the unique needs of both children and adults. By establishing these priorities, resources can be allocated efficiently, and targeted educational activities can be developed to enhance soil awareness and literacy. In this study, we employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize soil literacy's main domains and subdomains for SLAF. AHP is a widely recognized method that provides a systematic framework for pairwise comparisons of variables, enabling a detailed evaluation of their relative importance. Using this approach, soil experts, researchers, and educators assessed the significance of various domains for children and subdomains for adults, yielding valuable insights into the main domains and subdomains priorities.

The AHP analysis was facilitated by specialized software, such as Expert Choice. This study demonstrated its utility in designing an assessment framework and prioritizing the main domains and subdomains of soil literacy for diverse target groups. By utilizing the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in this study, soil experts contributed valuable insights into the prioritization of soil literacy the main domains and subdomains for designing valid questionnaires. This input ensures that the resulting assessment framework and educational activities are scientifically robust and practically applicable.

Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), CURIOSOIL, environmental education, Soil Literacy Assessment Framework (SLAF), sustainability

How to cite: Lubbers, I., Taghizadeh Kerman, N., Morias Rodrigues, S., and Noroozi, O.: Prioritizing Soil Literacy: An AHP-Based Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19274, 2025.

EGU25-20089 | ECS | Orals | EOS1.1

University Partnership for Armospheric Sciences (UPAS): a joint effort in communicating meteorology  

Insa Thiele-Eich, Ellen Arimond, and Annika Uebachs

The University Partnership for Atmospheric Sciences (UPAS) is a collaborative initiative among ten German universities offering Bachelor's and Master's programs in meteorology. Supported by an executive office at the University of Bonn, UPAS aims to enhance meteorological education and research in Germany by focusing on four key areas:

  • Attracting qualified students
  • Providing excellent education
  • Fostering synergies for successful science
  • Engaging in societal and community outreach

A significant component of UPAS is its dedication to advancing science communication and public engagement within meteorology. This commitment is exemplified through initiatives such as MeteoXchange, an international network fostering professional growth among early-career scientists via annual virtual conferences and specialized workshops designed to enhance presentation and communication skills. Additional efforts include interactive science slamming workshops, hands-on climate change experiment demonstrations for classrooms across Germany, the development of a dedicated podcast, and the creation of high-quality Open Educational Resources (OER). These activities not only elevate internal training but also bridge the gap between scientific research and societal understanding, amplifying the impact of meteorology on diverse audiences.

This presentation will highlight UPAS's achievements, providing an overview of our approaches to enhance education, research and outreach in meteorology. We will also discuss challenges encountered and share lessons learned, including strategies for overcoming hurdles and successfully leveraging synergies among our partner institutions. We are more than keen to invite collaboration and idea exchange with other geoscientific networks sharing similar objectives, in particular on the international level.

 

How to cite: Thiele-Eich, I., Arimond, E., and Uebachs, A.: University Partnership for Armospheric Sciences (UPAS): a joint effort in communicating meteorology , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20089, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20089, 2025.

EGU25-20316 | ECS | Orals | EOS1.1

Communicating geoscience to the public: insights from an early career scientist 

Thomas Gatt, Anna-Katharina Sieberer, Florian Westreicher, Maria Mattersberger, and Simon Zeiner

Scientific research is often inaccessible to non-academic audiences, even when it is publicly funded or conducted in their local area. Bridging this gap is essential to promote public understanding and inspire future geoscientists.

This study presents a small-scale science communication project developed as part of a Master's thesis and implemented in a rural Austrian community within the Hohe Tauern National Park. The initiative involved two local school classes and the general public through interactive activities and workshops. An open lecture on regional geology, given by young scientists from the University of Innsbruck, introduced the project to the wider community. The following day, school classes took part in field workshops led by scientists and National Park rangers on topics such as regional geology, tectonics, ore mining, geoarchaeology, alpine farming and local fauna. Hands-on, outdoor activities proved to be an effective and easy-to-implement tool for geoscience engagement and received positive feedback during this project.

Feedback indicated an increased interest and understanding of geoscience topics among participants. This study highlights how small-scale, low-cost projects can effectively engage local communities and stimulate interest in geoscience. Such efforts are critical to making science communication accessible and replicable for future researchers.

How to cite: Gatt, T., Sieberer, A.-K., Westreicher, F., Mattersberger, M., and Zeiner, S.: Communicating geoscience to the public: insights from an early career scientist, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20316, 2025.

EGU25-20455 | ECS | Posters on site | EOS1.1

Tales from Mednight – Junior Edition: Inspiring Young Minds with Mediterranean Science 

Meriem Krouma and the Mednight team

Tales from Mednight – Junior Edition is an enchanting collection of stories created to inspire children under 12 with the wonders of Mediterranean science. This one-of-a-kind anthology showcases the winning entries from the IV Literary Contest “Tales from Mednight,” a transnational initiative celebrating the fusion of creativity and science.

The stories explore themes such as biodiversity, clean energy, Mediterranean history, and environmental stewardship, sparking curiosity and fostering a love for science among young readers. Written in seven languages—Arabic, English, French, Greek, Italian, Spanish, and Turkish—the winning tales embody the Mediterranean's rich cultural diversity and shared scientific legacy.

To celebrate the launch of the Junior Edition, the Mednight initiative is distributing printed copies to children in hospitals, primary schools, and refugee camps. Free digital copies are also available, ensuring that the inspiring world of Mediterranean science reaches young readers everywhere.

How to cite: Krouma, M. and the Mednight team: Tales from Mednight – Junior Edition: Inspiring Young Minds with Mediterranean Science, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20455, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20455, 2025.

EGU25-21677 | Orals | EOS1.1

The communicative power of climate extremes  

Malte von Szombathely, Anne Reif, Benjamin Poschlod, Benjamin Blanz, Leonard Borchert, Lukas Brunner, and Jana Sillmann

Climate extremes have increased in frequency and scope recently, and this development is projected to continue under ever worsening anthropogenic climate change. Media coverage of extreme weather events plays an important role in promoting climate-friendly attitudes, the perception of climate science and the willingness to take collective action for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to climate extremes.

While Earth System model simulations of climate change and extremes are becoming more and more accurate, increasing doubts about the results of climate science and the existence of climate change have recently been observed among the German population (Reif et al., 2024). The upcoming elections in Germany make this turning point in political support for climate change policies even more relevant. It raises questions about how uncertainties in past and future climate change are perceived, and the success of different approaches to climate communication. Here, we address the dilemma of climate science communication, focusing on climate extremes.

We conducted a representative, Germany-wide survey at the beginning of December 2024 (n=1.019), gauging the perception of climate science, climate extremes and associated uncertainties. We present the results of this novel survey with a particular focus on the interaction of progress in climate extreme research and communication of uncertainties on the one hand, and the public perception of climate science on the other hand. Our analysis shows the development of perceived uncertainties of climate research in the German population. However, our work also highlights the perception of climate extremes as an opportunity for powerful and approachable climate communication.  

 

References 

Reif A., Guenther L., Tschötschel R. S. , Brüggemann M. (2024): Rückschlag für den Klimaschutz. Wandel der Einstellungen und Kommunikation zu Klimawandel und Klimapolitik von 2015 bis 2023, Media Perspektiven, Vol. 2024, 14, 1-12. 

How to cite: von Szombathely, M., Reif, A., Poschlod, B., Blanz, B., Borchert, L., Brunner, L., and Sillmann, J.: The communicative power of climate extremes , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21677, 2025.

EGU25-229 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

High-resolution mineralogical record of soil genesis and dust influx in a relict palaeosol 

Omid Bayat, Michael Plötze, Alireza Karimi, and Markus Egli

Evidence of profound climatic changes and wetter conditions during the late Quaternary are mentioned by several authors for the deserts of central Iran (e.g. Khademi and Mermut, 1999; Jalilian et al., 2022). The region today is strongly influenced by aeolian and desertification processes which are mainly attributed to human activities. To examine the role of chemical weathering (under moist conditions) and long-term dust influx (under dry conditions) on soil genesis, we studied the mineralogical composition of soil materials in a relict paleosol of an arid region of eastern Isfahan, central Iran. A high-resolution sampling strategy (10 cm interval) and qualitative and quantitative X-ray diffraction method were applied. The paleosol is located on an upper terrace with a flat surface having a gravelly structure and neither groundwater influence nor input of materials from adjust landforms. The results showed that quartz, calcite, Na-plagioclase and chlorite are dominant minerals in the clast fraction of the paleosol. The comparison of the mineralogical composition of soil materials and gravels revealed that K-feldspar, gypsum, smectite and palygorskite in the soil matrix were not inherited from the gravels but were provided by dust influx and/or pedogenesis processes. K-feldspar was absent in the gravels and was added by dust influx as its neoformation in the soil environment is unlikely. This hypothesis is supported by the exponential increase of its amount towards the soil surface and the maximum accumulation of the mineral in the surface dust-derived (vesicular) horizon. Smectite is also absent in both the clast fraction and the vesicular horizon and showed a maximum abundance in the middle and lower parts of the pedon where pedogenic calcite deposition occurred ~29 ka, suggesting a pedogenic origin of the mineral under the semiarid and seasonal climate. Palygorskite is absent in gravels but occur in the surface vesicular horizon and was relatively uniformly distributed throughout the pedon. It seems that palygorskite has both exogenic (from dust) and endogenic (by pedogenic processes) sources in the paleosol. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images support this postulation. SEM images exhibited dense fibers of palygorskite in the soil matrix and broken and small pieces of palygorskite in the dust-derived horizon. The investigated paleosol provided evidence of environmental changes from a semi-arid and seasonal climate during the time of smectite pedogenesis to an arid and dust deposition environment. Consequently, the palaeosol exhibited a mostly natural trend of aridification and desertification in this region during the late Quaternary.

Jalilian, T., Lak, R., Taghian A. and J. Darvishi Khatooni, 2022, Evolution of sedimentary environments and geography of the Gavkhouni Playa during the Late Quaternary, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 19, 1555–1572.

Khademi, H. and A. R. Mermut, 1999, Submicroscopy and stable isotope geochemistry of carbonates and associated palygorskite in Iranian Aridisols, European Journal of Soil Science, 50 (2), 207-216.

 

How to cite: Bayat, O., Plötze, M., Karimi, A., and Egli, M.: High-resolution mineralogical record of soil genesis and dust influx in a relict palaeosol, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-229, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-229, 2025.

EGU25-506 | ECS | Orals | GM6.2 | Highlight

Hydrological fluctuations in the Tarim Basin, northwest China, over the past millennium 

Kangkang Li, Xiaoguang Qin, Gill Plunkett, and David Brown

Reconstruction of hydrological fluctuations in arid regions has proven challenging due to a lack of reliable chronologic constraints on sparse geological archives. The aim of this study was to establish an independent record of hydrologic changes in the hyper-arid Tarim Basin, northwest China, with high spatiotemporal resolution. This paper presents comprehensive radiocarbon and tree-ring data sets of subfossilized medieval forest in the Tarim Basin compiled from geomorphological investigations of the palaeochannels of the Tarim River, the longest endorheic river in China, crossing the world’s second-largest shifting sand desert. This study describes the centennial-scale dynamics in the Tarim River flow over the past millennium, offering a robust long-term context for hydrological assessment in the extensive drylands of the Asian interior. Subsequently, we consider the role of the river-based hydrological fluctuations in connectivity of the ancient continental Silk Road networks.

How to cite: Li, K., Qin, X., Plunkett, G., and Brown, D.: Hydrological fluctuations in the Tarim Basin, northwest China, over the past millennium, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-506, 2025.

EGU25-754 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

Quantifying input volumes in Australia’s largest playa lake using SWOT data 

Atul Kumar Rai, Timothy J. Cohen, Moshe Armon, and Samuel K. Marx

Australia's drylands, covering nearly 70% of the continent exhibit the most variable precipitation and streamflow regimes globally. The endorheic Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) terminates at Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre (KT–LE), Australia’s largest lake and drains 1.14 M km2. This basin experiences remarkable ecological fluctuations with spectacular boom and bust cycles during extreme flooding events. This vast unregulated river basin, despite its ecological significance, has limited stream gauges and no lake monitoring, making the lake's water balance a real challenge due to its vast size, remote location and complex lake geometry. Recent observations reveal significant water loss in endorheic basins worldwide, emphasizing the urgency for improved freshwater monitoring solutions for KT – LE and its basin. Therefore, in this study, we present a space-based monitoring solution to estimate the storage volume of the KT–LE as an alternative to in situ measurements.  To do so, we utilized the data from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite, launched in December 2022, to monitor the 2024 KT-LE filling event. The duration of this event was between March and October 2024. The predicted maximum lake storage volume (recorded on 1st May) reached 0.82 Km3 with a predicted average depth of -14.2 metres AHD (Australian Height Datum). We cross-compared the volume estimates from three bathymetry digital elevation models to evaluate the derived estimates in the absence of in situ data. We achieved the accuracy of the derived water surface elevation estimates with a root mean square error (RMSE) of <0.6 meters. This research highlights the potential of SWOT data for addressing critical data gaps in hydrological monitoring and advancing water balance assessments in arid and semi-arid regions and in large wide and shallow playa lakes.

How to cite: Rai, A. K., Cohen, T. J., Armon, M., and Marx, S. K.: Quantifying input volumes in Australia’s largest playa lake using SWOT data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-754, 2025.

Effective water resource management in arid and data-scarce regions necessitates innovative approaches that incorporate advanced hydrological modeling and remote sensing technologies. This study focuses on developing nature-based solutions for groundwater recharge, specifically identifying aquifer recharge zones to combat water scarcity in areas characterized by low precipitation and limited streamflow data.

Utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+), this research integrates remote sensing datasets with observed hydrological data for model calibration, aiming to estimate water availability and optimize storage potential. A comprehensive water balance approach is employed to evaluate precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff, and infiltration dynamics, which enables precise estimation of water availability for recharge efforts.

By coupling SWAT+ with a groundwater module, the study analyzes infiltration capacity at a grid scale, facilitating the identification of high-potential groundwater recharge zones. The integration of remote sensing-derived parameters, including land use, soil type, and topography, enhances the model's ability to simulate water flow dynamics across watersheds.

This methodology is applied to Balochistan, Pakistan’s most vulnerable province to floods and droughts, where groundwater overexploitation and insufficient infrastructure exacerbate water challenges. The study’s findings provide insights into sustainable aquifer recharge strategies, supported by spatial analyses and thematic maps. These results inform the development of targeted interventions for water conservation, flood mitigation, and drought resilience in one of the world’s most water-stressed regions. This approach highlights the transformative potential of combining nature-based solutions with advanced hydrological modeling to secure water resources in arid regions.

How to cite: Naseer, A., Hafeez, M., Arshad, M., and Faizi, F.: Developing Nature-Based Solutions for Sustainable Groundwater Recharge through Advanced Hydrological Modelling and Water Availability Assessment in Arid Regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1434, 2025.

Several studies demonstrated that >~100 absolute ages of sand at certain spatial/vertical resolutions are required for constructing a reliable chronological framework for palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic interpretations of dunefield construction (Telfer and Hesse, 2013). As acquiring abundant absolute ages demands significant field and lab resources, several methodological approaches, such as port-OSL-OSL age estimates, have attempted to partly overcome this necessity (Stone et al., 2019).

Arid-zone encroaching dunes in the past and present, often dam drainage systems and generate proximal upstream, dune-dammed waterbodies that when dry, form playas. These waterbodies that are often seasonal, deposit distinct, low-energy, fluvial, fine-grained sediments (LFFDs), often as couplets. This recurring aeolian-dominated aeolian-fluvial (AF) process gradually leads to amplified LFFD accumulation, and partly configures dunefield, and particularly dunefield margin landscape evolution.

The INQUA DuneAtlas of global dunefield chronological data includes some dated samples that are non-dune sediments such as interdune and LFFD samples. However, the complementary contribution of such sediments to interpreting dunefield chronologies has not been fully assessed (Lancaster et al., 2016). Furthermore, and surprisingly, DuneAtlas dune sand samples that date to the LGM are sparse. We demonstrate that OSL ages, partly supported by port-OSL profiling, mainly of sandy units within LFFDs, improves the resolution and reliability of dating dunefield construction events and morphological maintenance of existing dunes, and in some cases even reveals periods of dune mobilization that are absent in dated dune cores.

Spatially dense, OSL-dated dune cores and sections of the ~103 km2 sized northwestern Negev dunefield (Israel) study area, revealed that the dunefield was constructed in two main sand incursion and vegetated linear dune (VLD) buildup/extension periods during the Heinrich 1 (H1) and Younger Dryas (YD) (Roskin et al., 2011; Thomas and Bailey, 2019). In this study, exposed, OSL-dated LFFD sections along the dunefield margins revealed that dune-dammed waterbodies destroyed earlier dunefield-margin dunes, partly erode others, but also preserve remains of eroded dunes between LFFD units. The LFFD sections revealed for the 1st time, significant and initial dune incursion and damming during the LGM, and also LFFD deposition thru the early Holocene (Robins et. al., 2022, 2023). The extent and relative thickness of H1-dated LFFDs suggest that dune encroachment then was greater than during the YD of the climate may have been slightly wetter. Early Holocene sediments may imply partial dune buildup or equilibrium-like dune maintenance in the early Holocene and, or also, a lag between YD dune-damming and later fluvial dune-breaching - when LFFD stratigraphic buildup gradually neared dune crest elevation leading to an outburst flood.

Altogether, studying and dating dune-dammed LFFDs are proposed to not only be a complementary, but rather a primary approach to date dunefield evolution and interpret past forcing drivers of sand mobilization and stabilization, and palaeohydrology.

 

References

Lancaster, N., et al., 2016. QI 

Robins, L., et al., 2022. QSR 

Robins, L., et al., 2023. QSR

Roskin, J., et al., 2011. QSR 

Stone, A. et al. 2019. QG 

Telfer, M.W. and Hesse, P.P., 2013. QSR 

Thomas, D.S. and Bailey, R.M., 2019. AR 

How to cite: Roskin, J., Robins, L., and Greenbaum, N.: OSL-dated, dune-dammed waterbody sediments along dunefield fringes improves resolution and reliability of dunefield evolution chronologies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2344, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2344, 2025.

EGU25-3123 | Orals | GM6.2

Paleoclimate and landscape evolution in an extreme continental interior – Interplay between aeolian, fluvial, and lacustrine systems in the Basin of the Great Lakes, Western Mongolia 

Frank Lehmkuhl, Dennis Wolf, Manfred Frechen, Neda Rahimzadeh, Sumiko Tskamato, Ochirbat Batkhishig, Lewis A. Owen, and Karl Wegmann

Neogene tectonics, geomorphological processes, and Quaternary climate change control landscape evolution in the internally drained basins of the Basin of Great Lakes (BGL), western Mongolia. The interplay of aeolian, fluvial, and lacustrine processes has resulted in a variety of landforms, such as large dune fields, beach bars, and alluvial fans. Their associated sedimentary archives and sediment transport pathways reflect mid-to-late Quaternary landscape evolution. The ongoing project analyzes geomorphological processes and sedimentary records. Different dating methods constrain the timing of landforms and deposits.

(1) Aeolian and fluvial dynamics: Mongolia's three largest dune fields, resulting from a long-term Quaternary sediment cycle, are located in the BGL. Rivers transport sediment into endorheic lakes. During lake-level low stands, winds transport the sand eastwards along the dune fields. The lakes exhibit different paleolake levels, and sandy plains with mobilized sand at their eastern ends exist. Three climatic and paleoclimatic implications are derived from a mapping approach1. (i) The fundamental west-east orientation of the dune fields is a result of the westerly winds that prevailed during the arid periods of the Quaternary. (ii) The highest lake levels occurred during pluvial phases caused by increased moisture supply. (iii) In the modern semi-arid climate, wind systems from north to northwest predominate, while in the southernmost dune field, minor winds from the southeast occur. Preliminary dating results give mid-Pleistocene dates for the core of the dune fields and Holocene dates for the youngest and smaller dunes.

(2) Lake level fluctuations: The first comprehensive late Quaternary chronology of lake level variations for the Khyargas Lake in the BGL is presented. The data is based on a geomorphological approach supported by luminescence dating. The lake is the ultimate sink of a sequential water and sediment cascade from the adjacent Mongolian Altai and Khangai Mountains. Several intercalated lakes repeatedly merged to form a large paleolake, as evidenced by various shoreline features. Twelve paleolake levels between +7m and +188m above the modern lake level (a.m.l.) are identified from well-preserved paleoshoreline sequences. Calculations of paleolake extent and water volumes emphasize times of enhanced inflow and gradual capture and subsequent reduced inflow and abandonment of upstream-located lakes. Three distinct phases of lake level dynamics can be differentiated: (i) A transgression to a maximum level of +129m (a.m.l.) during Marine Isotope Stage 5c primarily controlled by enhanced atmospheric moisture supply. (ii) A post-Last Glacial Maximum lake expansion to a level of +118m (a.m.l.) around 14 ka, ultimately controlled by glacial meltwater pulses. This period was followed by a rapid lake level drop during the Late Glacial–Holocene transition in response to decreasing meltwater supply and a drier climate. (iii) Small-scale lake level fluctuations throughout the Late Holocene reflect a hydro-climatically controlled equilibrium between ~ 2.6 and 0.7 ka.

The final project phase will obtain TCN dating of paleoshorelines and alluvial fan activity.

1 Lehmkuhl, F. et al. Aeolian sediments in western Mongolia: Distribution and (paleo)climatic implications. Geomorphology 465, 109407 (2024).

How to cite: Lehmkuhl, F., Wolf, D., Frechen, M., Rahimzadeh, N., Tskamato, S., Batkhishig, O., Owen, L. A., and Wegmann, K.: Paleoclimate and landscape evolution in an extreme continental interior – Interplay between aeolian, fluvial, and lacustrine systems in the Basin of the Great Lakes, Western Mongolia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3123, 2025.

EGU25-4036 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

Activity and stability of surfaces and soils in the Atacama Desert, Chile 

Linda Maßon, Simon Matthias May, Svenja Riedesel, Marijn van der Meij, Johanna Steiner, Stephan Opitz, and Tony Reimann

The hyperarid conditions of the central Atacama, characterized by extremely low precipitation and high evaporation rates, create a unique environment where soil stability is generally thought to be exceptionally high due to the widespread gypsum and salt enrichment. Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide-based surface exposure ages suggest that many surfaces underwent limited to no changes since the Neogene or early Pleistocene. However, a number of recent studies also underline the younger landscape-scale geomorphodynamic activity, as evidenced by e.g., the incision of the Rio Loa canyon during the late Pleistocene, or by growth of calcium-sulphate wedges and associated patterned grounds in the Central Depression at the onset of the Holocene. Despite this discrepancy, there is a limited understanding of past and present soil dynamics under this extreme hyperaridity, including subsurface turbation processes driven by both biological and salt dynamics (bioturbation, haloturbation). So far, no geochronological framework exists for these important subsurface soil processes, and the factors controlling these processes are still unknown.

Our study aims at providing new insights into the dynamics of subsurface soil processes in the hyperarid Atacama Desert. We use feldspar single grain luminescence dating techniques combined with sedimentological and geochemical analyses to decipher the activity or inactivity of soil material conveyance processes. We present results from investigations of four soil profiles. All profiles are situated in alluvial (fan) deposits along a west-to-east climatic transect stretching from the fog-affected western slopes of the Coastal Cordillera near sea level to the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert at approximately 2000 m above sea level. Even though all studied profiles are situated in alluvial (fan) deposits, the geomorphic setting and thus the (sub)recent sedimentation dynamics differed considerably between the profiles. Soil dynamics in the form of vertical grain transport as well as material exchange and mixing were only detected in the coastal profiles where sufficient moisture supply supports the presence of vegetation and associated soil fauna. In these lower elevations, alluvial (fan) surfaces appear geomorphologically stable since their deposition, but our profiles exhibit evidence of significant post-depositional soil material reworking. In the hyperarid region above fog occurrence, that is only affected by rare episodic rain, post-depositional turbation processes seem to be absent or restricted to the surface layer. However, in these hyperarid regions, sediment (re)deposition seems to have taken place on relatively recent time scales, thereby adding more data on late Pleistocene to Holocene surface activity in the driest non-polar desert on Earth, that are likely driven by aeolian dust and/or episodic alluvial processes.

How to cite: Maßon, L., May, S. M., Riedesel, S., van der Meij, M., Steiner, J., Opitz, S., and Reimann, T.: Activity and stability of surfaces and soils in the Atacama Desert, Chile, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4036, 2025.

Last major fluvial modification along the hyperarid coast of the Atacama Desert is relatively young. It has been found that the coastal alluvial fans (CAFs) were formed during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. No remnants older than the last interglacial period could be constrained as yet. However, robust geochronological frameworks by numerical dating using radiocarbon dating, trapped charge dating techniques, and in situ terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides are restricted to few sites. This is related to both the geomorphic and stratigraphic complexity of the multi-stage CAFs as well as the high costs of those numerical dating methods. Consequently, it has remained unclear so far to what extent fan aggradation and progradation is controlled by large-scale allogenic versus individual autogenic forcing.

As a first study, an application of the cost-effective Schmidt hammer exposure-age dating (SHD) technique was explored for constraining the age of terminal aggradation of the CAF generations along the south-central coast of the Atacama Desert (24°15’S–25°15°S) using an 10Be exposure-dated telescopic alluvial fan featuring four control surfaces (after Walk et al., 2023) for age calibration. Apart from the calibration site, SHD was applied on, in total, 19 depositional lobes from 11 CAFs featuring at least one phase of progradation following main channel incision. Morphostratigraphies are primarily based on in-field mapping. Rebound (R) values were systematically assessed using an electronic N-type Schmidt hammer for each abandoned fan generation (Q1–Q3) by randomly sampling 50 surface boulders of comparable lithology. For calibration with recent deposits (Q4), multiple impacts were exerted on a careful selection of few boulders. Linear age calibration and error propagation follows the two-point solution by Matthews and Winkler (2022), adapted to a segmented approach for four control surfaces and complemented by Deming regression.

Calibration results in a negative and significant linear relationship between 10Be exposure ages and R values, presenting a robust regional calibration model for SHD of fan boulders exposed at least since the last interglacial period. SHD of the 19 fan surface generations yield ages of terminal aggradation ranging between the mid MIS 4 (late MIS 3) and early to mid MIS 5. The age range exceeds the usual dating range reported for SHD applied in (sub)humid regions by up to one order of magnitude, which can be explained by the comparatively low weathering rates at the arid-hyperarid transition. The relative age uncertainties amount to 3–20% (10–24%) and allow to deduce a spatial heterogeneity in the Late Quaternary fan morphodynamics. While the CAFs south of 24°53’S show a systematic response probably related to palaeoclimatic changes of the SE Pacific, those to the north are decoupled – indicating a potential control by individual autogenic forcing.

References
Matthews, J.A., Winkler, S. (2022): Schmidt-hammer exposure-age dating: a review of principles and practice. Earth-Science Reviews 230, 104038. DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104038

Walk, J., Schulte, P., Bartz, M., Binnie, A., Kehl, M., Mörchen, R., … Lehmkuhl, F. (2023): Pedogenesis at the coastal arid-hyperarid transition deduced from a Late Quaternary chronosequence at Paposo, Atacama Desert. Catena 228, 107171. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107171

How to cite: Walk, J.: Expansion of the Late Quaternary morphochronology of Atacama’s coastal alluvial fans (northern Chile) by Schmidt hammer exposure-age dating, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4535, 2025.

EGU25-4557 | ECS | Orals | GM6.2

Linking structural and functional connectivity in drylands under varying rainfall and soil conditions 

Octavia Crompton, Gabriel Katul, and Sally Thompson

On dryland hillslopes, vegetation water availability is often subsidized by the redistribution of rainfall runoff from bare soil (sources) to vegetation patches (sinks). In regions where rainfall volumes are too low to support spatially continuous plant growth, such functional connectivity between bare soil and vegetated areas enables the establishment and persistence of dryland ecosystems. Increasing the connectivity within bare soil areas can intensify runoff and increase water losses from hillslopes, disrupting this redistribution and reducing the water available to sustain ecosystem function. Inferring functional connectivity (from bare to vegetated, or within bare areas) from structural landscape features is an attractive approach to enable rapid, scalable characterization of dryland ecosystem function from remote observations. Such inference, however, would rely on metrics of structural connectivity, which describe the contiguity of bare soil areas. Unfortunately, several studies have observed non-stationarity in the relations between functional and structural connectivity metrics as rainfall conditions vary. Consequently, the suitability of using structural connectivity to provide a reliable proxy for functional connectivity remains uncertain.

Here rainfall runoff simulations across a large range of dryland hillslopes, under varying soil and rainfall conditions are used to establish relations between structural and functional connectivity metrics. The results identify that the relations very between two hydrologic limits -- a 'local' limit, in which functional connectivity is related to structural connectivity, and a 'global' limit, in which functional connectivity is most related to the hillslope vegetation fraction, regardless of the structural connectivity of bare soil areas. The transition between these limits within the simulations depends on rainfall intensity and duration, and soil permeability. While the local limit may strengthen positive feedbacks between vegetation and water availability, the implications of these limits for dryland functioning need further exploration, particularly considering the timescale separation between storm runoff production and vegetation growth.

How to cite: Crompton, O., Katul, G., and Thompson, S.: Linking structural and functional connectivity in drylands under varying rainfall and soil conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4557, 2025.

EGU25-4741 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

Geomorphic diversity of dryland rivers and their controls in the semi-arid region, Western India 

Anukritika Raj and Vikrant Jain

Drylands cover approximately 41% of the global land area and support diverse fluvial systems. Identifying the geomorphic diversity of dryland rivers and their maintenance is essential for sustaining ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. Furthermore, amidst climate change and the anticipated expansion of dryland areas, gaining insights into this diversity is crucial for developing adaptive and effective management strategies for dryland rivers.  However, dryland rivers are often generalized, with studies focusing more on their distinct characteristics than the inherent geomorphic diversity that shapes river character and behaviour. A comprehensive understanding of the occurrence, spatial distribution, and major controls on channel morphological diversity of dryland rivers is still lacking. To address this gap, we have examined the geomorphic diversity within and across two semi-arid dryland river basins in western India: the Mahi River Basin (MRB) and the West Banas River Basin (WBRB). We employed River Styles classification for geomorphic characterization, combined with hydrological analysis, total stream power and specific stream power assessment for a more comprehensive evaluation. Hydrological analysis indicates that MRB and WBRB are monsoon-dominated rivers. MRB is a perennial dryland river with high flow permanence downstream, whereas WBRB is intermittent, with discharge decreasing downstream. Geomorphic characterization shows that MRB predominantly exhibits a confined, terrace margin controlled, meandering, gravel bed River Style. Only a small section of the estuarine zone exhibits a partly confined, terrace margin controlled, fine-grained bed River Style. Terraces impose antecedent confinement on the contemporary river processes in the MRB, limiting floodplain development. On the contrary, WBRB predominantly features laterally unconfined, continuous channel, low sinuosity, gravel-to-sand bed River Style with extensive floodplain development. The midstream section shows a partly confined, terrace margin controlled, gravel bed River Style in the pediment zone. Stream power analysis showed high stream power even in the mid-to-downstream pediment zone of both basins, primarily driven by site-specific structural controls influencing current channel processes. Field investigations indicated that erosion processes, notably plucking, predominantly shape the reaches with higher stream power. The maximum specific stream power in the pediment zone is 98 W/m² and 255 W/m² in the WBRB and MRB, respectively. Geomorphic diversity within the basin is primarily shaped by geological control in the rocky uplands, while the pediment and alluvial zones reflect a combination of geological controls and Holocene climatic imprints. Although both basins are in semi-arid regions, the observed geomorphic diversity across the basin is governed by stream power distribution patterns with underlying geological controls and valley evolution at the millennial time scale. Insights from this study can enhance ground-level river management practices by incorporating the diversity of dryland rivers and contributing to the global inventory, thereby enriching our understanding of dryland river systems.

How to cite: Raj, A. and Jain, V.: Geomorphic diversity of dryland rivers and their controls in the semi-arid region, Western India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4741, 2025.

EGU25-7661 | Posters on site | GM6.2

Spatial variations in the provenance of eolian deposits on the Mu Us desert and the Chinese Loess Plateau 

Mei Sheng, Xisheng Wang, and Shuanhong Zhang

Whether the provenance of eolian deposits on the extensive Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) is spatiotemporally heterogeneous/homogeneous is highly controversial. Here we present detrital zircon U-Pb ages for the eolian dust from the central-eastern Mu Us desert, its underlying Cretaceous sandstones, and the loess from the northeastern CLP. The comparable detrital zircon U-Pb age signatures between the eolian deposits from eastern Mu Us and Cretaceous sandstones suggests that eolian deposits in the eastern Mu Us are largely the product of weathering and recycling of regional bedrock. Typical loess on the northeastern CLP show relatively consistent zircon age spectra with those from the eastern Mu Us, indicating significant contributions of the western North China Craton (NCC) to the loess on the northeastern CLP. Temporal consistencies of U-Pb age spectra for a 13.6 m-thick eolian sand-loess sequence in the eastern Mu Us desert reveals that there is no apparent provenance shift at least since the last interglacial. Comparison of detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra of Late Pleistocene loess developed on the northeastern, eastern, and west-central CLP demonstrates that the contributions from the western NCC increase significantly for the loess on the eastern-northeastern CLP, while the west-central CLP received more eolian dust from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) and the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). The contribution of detritus from the NTP decreases, and the contribution from the western NCC outweighs that from the NTP on the eastern-northeastern CLP. Our new detrital zircon data provide robust evidence for the spatial heterogeneity of provenance across the CLP, regardless of the general characteristics of multiple recycling and thorough mixing of Chinese loess.

How to cite: Sheng, M., Wang, X., and Zhang, S.: Spatial variations in the provenance of eolian deposits on the Mu Us desert and the Chinese Loess Plateau, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7661, 2025.

The high-accumulation-rate eolian deposits in the eastern Hexi Corridor retain invaluable archives of rapid climatic fluctuations in the transitional zone of the northwestern Chinese Loess Plateau, the Tengger Desert, and the northern foothills of the Qilian Mountains. High-resolution mineral magnetic and bulk grain size analyses for the Shagou loess–paleosol sequences since the last interglacial reveal that loess accumulation in northwestern limit of the East Asian summer monsoon is essentially continuous at multi-centennial scales, and variations in magnetic granulometry of the last glacial loess are predominated by the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Based on Greenland Ice Core Chronology, the complete recording of all Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles and Heinrich events substantiates a rapid response of the EAWM to the northern high-latitude abrupt climatic changes, regulated by the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Arctic sea-ice extent. A synthesis of various high-resolution paleo-proxy records from the Northern Hemisphere further suggests the generally identical phasing of stadial–interstadial oscillations and tight coupling of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. We propose that the relatively stronger D–O signals in low-latitude tropical marine sequences compared with middle-latitude land-based paleo-records may be accounted for by northward transport of heat and moisture originated from the warmest tropical oceans during interstadials, and the more significant influence of oceanic processes than that of atmospheric processes in propagating the northern high-latitude climatic signals during stadials. This study highlights the pivotal role of AMOC in modulating millennial-scale regional and global climate.

How to cite: Wang, X., Sheng, M., and Yi, S.: Links of abrupt climate events in the eastern Hexi Corridor to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes during the last glacial:magnetoclimatological evidence of the Shagou loess record, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7789, 2025.

Identifying reliable indicators of environmental changes is crucial for effective ecosystem management, particularly in drylands which are prone to climate change impacts. Here, we report on how we are integrating time-series remote sensing, advanced data science techniques, and ground-based observations to identify, map, and assess the sensitivity of a diverse suite of wetlands in drylands to environmental perturbations.  We are particularly interested in potential ‘sentinel wetlands’: natural features that are highly sensitive to subtle climatic changes. These wetlands may act as early warning systems, reflecting the cumulative effects of various climate stressors on their hydrodynamic state.

We have developed a method to automatically map different surface waterbodies (including a range of low- and high-altitude wetlands) and characterise their wetness dynamics at pixel-scale using time-series multispectral satellite data. We have applied the method to drylands spanning three different continents (western and northern India, southwest Spain, Argentinian Patagonia) and validated the mapped wetness dynamics of key features such as floodplain and valley-bottom wetlands, interdunal depressions, playas and pans through extensive field visits (~10 000 km of road trip).

From our field visits, we conclude that not all wetlands are good candidates for serving as sentinel wetlands. The best candidates are those wetlands which are devoid of direct human interventions, sit within endorheic catchments, and are relatively small in size (<10 km2). Each dryland visited hosts several such candidates. We classify these candidates in two categories: controls and targets. Controls are sentinel wetlands with in-situ hydrometeorological data logging stations (e.g. interdunal wetlands in Doñana National Park, Southwest Spain), while targets are the remaining sentinel wetlands that we plan to use as a distributed sensor array. Our field visits reveal that in some wetlands, there has been an increase in wetness frequency in recent years.  In the case of low-altitude wetlands, it is almost exclusively because of human interventions (i.e. these are non-sentinel wetlands) and in the high-altitude wetlands, it is because of increased glacier meltwater supply (i.e. these are sentinel wetlands).  By contrast, most sentinel wetlands in low-altitude regions are exhibiting reduced wetness frequency, in some cases dramatically. The next steps are to monitor and evaluate a wider set of hydrodynamic responses to stressors, including by tracking subtle changes at pixel scale and correlating these changes with local to regional climate.  The results will help further demonstrate how wetlands in drylands can act as robust indicators of climate change.

Knowing the wetness dynamics of sentinel and non-sentinel wetlands will help us to identify and separate the various climate and direct human stressors that might impact future water availability and hence water security in the world’s diverse drylands. This separation is crucial for developing targeted management strategies. By further characterising the sensitivity of sentinel wetlands, our research will enhance predictive models of waterbody responses to climate change and provide actionable insights for sustaining water resources amidst ongoing climate changes.

How to cite: Singh, M. and Tooth, S.: Time-series remote sensing and multi-continental field work reveals that wetlands in drylands can be robust indicators of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11577, 2025.

EGU25-12167 | Orals | GM6.2

Isochronous provenance variability during the last glacial maximum revealed by heavy mineral analysis of loess deposits 

Nils Keno Lünsdorf, Marie-Christin Speck, Olivier Moine, Pierre Antoine, Markus Fuchs, and Frank Lehmkuhl

Loess-Paleosol-Sequences (LPS) are important sedimentary archives that enable to infer climatological parameters during the Quaternary at high temporal resolution. Three isochronous, central European LPS sites (Nussloch, Münzenberg, Hecklingen) were accessed at high temporal resolution by means of heavy mineral, single-grain sedimentary provenance analysis (SPA) using a highly automated, correlative workflow guided by machine learning (Lünsdorf et al., 2023). The goals of this study are (1) to investigate if regional differences exists between the LPS in terms of heavy mineral composition (i.e. Alpine vs. Fennoscandinavian provenance) and (2) if short lived processes that affected the source-to-sink system can be detected.

The studied LPS compose a transect from SW to NE Germany and synchronicity of the archives was controlled by presence of the Eltville tephra (ET; ca. 23.2 – 25.6 ka, Zens et al. 2017) and/or precise OSL age modeling. Thus, the LPS recorded sedimentation during the last glacial maximum. From each LPS 1 m of sediment was continuously sampled in 5 cm intervals, whenever possible centered on the ET. 120 heavy mineral aliquots of the grain size fractions 10 – 30 µm and 30 – 62 µm were analyzed by optical microscopy, Raman spectroscopy and electron probe micro analysis (EPMA) at the single grain level. Resulting in a correlated dataset of optically derived grain parameters (size, shape, roundness, color, etc.), mineralogy and chemical composition for each individual grain analyzed.

First preliminary results suggest that the three LPS are readily differentiated based on heavy mineral composition, supporting a Southern, Alpine and Northern, Fennoscandinavian loess provenance. While heavy mineral ratios and garnet chemical composition reveal abrupt changes in the Southern (Nussloch) and Northern (Hecklingen) LPS. It is assumed that the abrupt changes at the Nussloch site are related to variation in storm intensity with periods of high storm activity reflecting a distal source and periods of low storm activity a more local source. A reasonable explanation for the abrupt change in provenance indicators at the Hecklingen site is the advancement of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, potentially changing the fluvial drainage pattern and introducing more moraine material to the deflation area.

How to cite: Lünsdorf, N. K., Speck, M.-C., Moine, O., Antoine, P., Fuchs, M., and Lehmkuhl, F.: Isochronous provenance variability during the last glacial maximum revealed by heavy mineral analysis of loess deposits, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12167, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12167, 2025.

EGU25-14669 | ECS | Orals | GM6.2

Unraveling the Link between Rainfall and Groundwater: A Regional Approach 

Zafira Feroz and Madan Kumar Jha

Groundwater serves as an unsung hero in the worldwide freshwater crisis, supporting agriculture, sustaining communities, and mitigating the effects of climate variability. India leads the world in groundwater consumption. It extracts approximately 250 km³  annually, surpassing the combined withdrawals of China and the United States. Groundwater extraction is expected to escalate in the coming future due to agricultural demands, thereby stressing the already over-exploited groundwater reserves. These findings emphasize the critical need for in-depth research on groundwater systems. The present study focuses on the agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of India, as classified by the National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning (NBSS&LUP). AEZs are characterized by unique climatic, soil, and hydrological properties, providing an ideal framework for analyzing groundwater trends at a regional scale. The intricate relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels across different agro-ecological zones was analyzed. The Mann-Whitney U test results reveal significant (p < 0.05) differences in groundwater-levels between normal and dry (deficient rainfall) years in Zones 3, 10, 16, and 19, as well as between normal and wet (excess rainfall) years in Zones 3, 10, 11, 15, 16, and 17, highlighting the pronounced impact of rainfall variability on groundwater availability in these regions. A decline in water table over the two decades (1996-2016) is observed in 57.42% of the total geographical area. Furthermore, regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations (r > 0.7) between annual rainfall and post-monsoon groundwater levels in ten out of the eighteen AEZs considered for the analysis. In addition, Zone 11 ‘Central Highlands’ and Zone 16 ‘Deccan Plateau (Karnataka)’ exhibited stronger correlations at a lag of 1 month, highlighting the delayed response of groundwater to rainfall in these regions. It was also observed that the total area where groundwater extraction during monsoon exceeds recharge, expands from 0.68% in 1996, to 1.21% in 2006, and to 3.89% in 2016. The findings of this study emphasize the need for adaptive, zone-specific strategies to ensure sustainable groundwater management under the changing climate and socio-economic conditions.

 

How to cite: Feroz, Z. and Jha, M. K.: Unraveling the Link between Rainfall and Groundwater: A Regional Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14669, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14669, 2025.

EGU25-15509 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

Alluvial Fan Retreat: Tank Experiments 

Haein Shin and Wonsuck Kim

Conventional interpretations of alluvial fan margins attribute their changes to environmental factors such as tectonic activity or climate variations. Under steady dynamic conditions, fan margin (s) is expected to grow continuously, following the time (t) dependence of s~t(1/3), based on the mass conservation. However, this study aims to propose a new concept that challenges this conventional understanding. A key finding of this research is that the alluvial fan margin can retreat even under constant upstream boundary conditions, a phenomenon significantly influenced by ‘groundwater infiltration’. This study focuses on investigating the role of infiltration process in alluvial fan evolution. Seven tank experiments with varying sediment and water discharge rates were conducted, enabling analysis of fan retreat under constant upstream boundary conditions. Fans typically exhibited continuous progradation, but a critical point was observed where runoff water no longer reached the fan margin, resulting in fan retreat. At this stage, all runoff water infiltrated into the sediment deposit. Applying Darcy’s Law, we found a strong correlation between deposit thickness (dh) and infiltration rate, assuming constant hydraulic conductivity (Ks). Based on these experimental results, a computational model was developed to simulate the alluvial fan trajectories under similar conditions. The findings provide insights into field-scale applications by accounting for infiltration processes on alluvial fans.

How to cite: Shin, H. and Kim, W.: Alluvial Fan Retreat: Tank Experiments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15509, 2025.

EGU25-17392 | ECS | Posters on site | GM6.2

Evaluating Aquifer Recharge in Volcanic Islands: A Case Study of Maspalomas, Gran Canaria 

Rodrigo Sariago, Miguel Ángel Marazuela, Jorge Martínez-León, Jon Jimenez, Carlos Baquedano, Samanta Gasco, Gerardo Meixueiro Rios, Juan Carlos Santamarta García-Gil, and Alejandro García-Gil

In recent decades, the need to quantify and understand water resources in drylands, such as insular volcanic systems, has grown, along with the obligation to assess how climate change might impact them in the future. These resources are constrained not only by climatic, geographic, and geological factors, but also by increasing demand from agronomic, urban, and tourism areas. This, is mostly relevant in the Canary Islands, especially in the coastal region of Maspalomas located in the southern part of Gran Canaria, where an exponential increase in freshwater demand has been observed from 1960 to the present.

Within the framework of the NATALIE project a hydrological model was developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software to estimate the infiltration and recharge rate of Maspalomas aquifers. The water balance results show an average annual precipitation of 272 mm, of which 68% evapotranspires (181 mm/yr). The infiltration rate is estimated at 19% of the precipitation (50.65 mm/yr), equivalent to an annual aquifer recharge of 8.2 hm³.

Gran Canaria faces a unique challenge in water resource management due to strong anthropogenic pressure and the impact of climate change on reserves and available resources. Climate projections towards 2100 suggest a drop of 22.2% in annual precipitation, which would represent a reduction of 34.63 mm/yr in infiltration, i.e., a decrease of 2.59 hm³/yr in groundwater reserves. These results will be key to both prevent scarcity and improve fresh water resource management in volcanic islands.

Keywords: Water resources, Maspalomas, SWAT, recharge rate, climate projection

 

How to cite: Sariago, R., Marazuela, M. Á., Martínez-León, J., Jimenez, J., Baquedano, C., Gasco, S., Meixueiro Rios, G., Santamarta García-Gil, J. C., and García-Gil, A.: Evaluating Aquifer Recharge in Volcanic Islands: A Case Study of Maspalomas, Gran Canaria, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17392, 2025.

We geochemically-fingerprinted a large set of sediments collected from potential source areas (PSAs) in southeastern and southcentral Australia and to compare these data with the record obtained from X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) scanning on a long deep-sea sediment core MD03-2607 obtained offshore Kangaroo Island, South Australia. The entire data set of samples collected on land as well as the downcore measurements were unmixed using the numerical end-member method AnalySize. In this approach, we successfully use the elements Al, Fe, K, Mn, S, Sr and Y to define end members. In addition, the on-land occurrences of the chemical ratios of Zr/Zn, Ti/Rb, Ti/Y and Zr/Rb are used to support the provenance of the chemical end-members. Three main PSA’s are defined: Murray River Basin (MRB), Darling River Basin (DRB) and Kati Thanda – Lake Eyre District (LED), of which the MRB is represented in two different chemical end members. The downcore contributions of these end members in the sediment core are consequently interpreted in terms of fluvial (MRB and DRB) versus aeolian (LED) input.  Consequently, the downcore dominance of sediment-transport modes are interpreted in terms of river runoff versus aeolian input over the last 125 kyr. The downcore palaeoclimate proxies show a dominance of MRB during the interglacial intervals versus a dominance of both LED (dust) and DRB input during the glacial ones, suggesting increased seasonal contrasts during glacial austral winter. See: www.nioz.nl/dust

How to cite: Stuut, J.-B., De Deckker, P., and Hennekam, R.: Provenancing dryland sediments recovered from the marine realm to reconstruct Late Quaternary Australian climate variability  , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17564, 2025.

In semi-arid regions, the growing demand for water, particularly for irrigation, accelerates the overexploitation of water resources, often leading to severe scarcity that constrains sustainable economic development. This issue is particularly acute in the Merguellil watershed in central Tunisia, where the impacts of climate change exacerbate the challenges. This study employs the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model to analyze current and future trends in surface and groundwater resources in the Merguellil watershed, assessing the combined effects of climate change and human activities on these resources. The primary objective is to identify critical thresholds, evaluate sustainable solutions and guide adaptive water management strategies. An essential element of the study is estimating the demand for irrigation water in the Kairouan plain using high-resolution Landsat 8 imagery to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETC). Once the required input data from 2000 to 2020 are introduced in the WEAP model, the impact of different scenarios (Climatic and anthropogenic) for the actual and future water balance were evaluated until 2050. The simulation results under the RCP 4.5 climate scenario indicate a significant decline in aquifer levels across the basin; the Kairouan aquifers being particularly impacted. Additionally, scenarios involving the expansion of irrigated areas show a substantial increase in agricultural water requirements. To address these pressing challenges, this study explores multiple management strategies, including improving the efficiency and satisfaction levels of public irrigation systems, optimizing reservoir management during drought periods, and interconnecting existing water infrastructures. Notably, the findings highlight the importance of gradually increasing water transfers to the El Haouareb Dam to meet irrigation demands effectively. Finally, we conclude by emphasizing the importance of proactive and adaptive measures in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources in this area. This study highlights the need for integrated, resilient, and sustainable water management practices to ensure the long-term viability of water resources in this vulnerable region.

How to cite: Ataallah, H., Oueslati, I., Le Page, M., and Lili Chabaane, Z.: Sustainable Water Resource Management in the Merguellil Watershed (Tunisia): Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities Using the WEAP Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19705, 2025.

CC BY 4.0